NASA on Friday released a much-anticipated "request" to the US commercial space industry to develop private space stations that, as early as 2030, will succeed the International Space Station as a place for astronauts to live in low-Earth orbit.
In a cover letter accompanying the 360-page "request for proposals," NASA stated its plan: "This will ensure NASA has a sustained human presence in LEO for crew members to perform science and exploration." Several private companies that have worked for years on designing and developing such stations have been keen to learn exactly what capabilities NASA is seeking. These new documents finally provide some answers.
NASA's solicitation can be found here. Industry responses are due back to NASA on December 8. NASA said it plans to select "two or more" contractors in this phase of the competition, and intends to make a final decision in April.
Welcome to Edition 9.14 of the Rocket Report! The big news this week, from our perspective, is that United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket appears to be close to launching. We've seen a no-earlier-than launch date for the return to flight mission of October 29 (an Amazon Leo flight), and the next rocket up after that, also an Amazon Leo mission, is also planned for this year. Assuming the solid rocket boosters work, Vulcan could be poised for a major breakthrough next year in cadence.
As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Nuri rocket notches another success. South Korea successfully deployed five satellites for its first domestically launched microsatellite constellation during the fifth flight of its homegrown Nuri rocket Wednesday, Yonhap News Agency reports. In addition to the primary payload of five New-space Earth Observation Satellite Constellation for National Safety microsatellites, nine of the rocket's 10 CubeSat secondary payloads were released as planned, according to the Korea AeroSpace Administration. PERSAT-02, developed by South Korean startup Quaternion, failed to separate from the rocket.
Here is more by Caelan Wilkie-Rogers.
The post Earth facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Pattern: You’re in a loop where longer & longer feedback loops seem to give you bigger results.
Transformation: Fix the time for the feedback loop instead & figure out how to gradually get more scope into the loop.
This came up recently when I was re-conceiving augmented coding around human needs. We’re getting longer & longer feedback loops. Anthropic re…
Long-run U.S. population movements have been driven more by natural amenities than by jobs, and California, rich in both uniform and complementary climates, should be a persistent net gainer of domestic migrants. It has instead lost residents to other states every year since about 1990. This paper argues that its amenities are unchanged and that the location rents they generate have been captured politically. Capture through a land tax would be borne by landowners and would move no one. Capture through mobile tax bases-above all a steeply progressive income tax-and through restrictions on housing supply does move people, and moves particular people. Where the revenue also finances redistribution, high earners pay far more than the value of the services they receive, which pushes them out on a second count; the income tax also raises the pre-tax wages firms must pay, so jobs leave with households. Proposition 13 shifts capture onto mobile tax bases and locks long-tenured owners in place, so observed out-migration understates the underlying pressure. Internal Revenue Service data show that in 2022-23 California’s out-migrants outnumbered its in-migrants by 40 percent overall but by 64 percent among households with incomes of $200,000 or more, a pattern reversed in low-tax states. A simple cross-state comparison, which cannot hold production advantages constant, shows no relation between tax burdens and natural amenities, suggesting that competition among amenity-rich states limits capture; California, which taxes well beyond what its neighbors charge, loses residents disproportionately to them. Border comparisons and data on homeowners’ length of residence are consistent with the argument.
Here is more from Philiip E. Graves, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The post California in-migration and out-migration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Sonja Shaw is my favorite California political figure, because she’s absolutely fucking nuts, in that way where even her friends and colleagues know she’s absolutely fucking nuts. So much so that, when they think they’re alone with you, they’ll whisper, “Girl is absolutely fucking nuts.” Because, well, she’s absolutely fucking nuts.
A Moms For Liberty-boosted candidate for California State Superintendent, Shaw is 100-percent guaranteed to lose in a few weeks by (bare minimum) 15 points. She is an awful candidate who walks the earth with an unspeakable level of ugliness, hatred and bigotry—mixed with the worst non-quality a person can have: A lack of awareness of her own stupidity.
And if you don’t believe me:
A. Here you go.
C. Her husband literally strolls around in a DARK MAGA hat, which is code for WE HATE EVERYONE WHO ISN’T WHITE AND STRAIGHT AND CHRISTIAN.
I digress.
Earlier today @crowdsourcecarrie dropped this important list, noting all the area school board candidates who are backed by Moms For Liberty. And, without fail, all of them have been endorsed by Sonja Shaw.
Without. Fail.
This, my friends, is a gift from the lord.
If I’m, oh, running in Capo Unified or Chino Valley Unified or Pomona Unified, and I am liberal and sane, I am 100-percent lassoing my opponent to Shaw. I am telling everyone I see about Shaw’s plans to bring Christ into schools. I am telling everyone I see about Shaw’s plans to ban books. I am telling everyone I see about her efforts to demonize teachers and school administrators. I am telling everyone I see that Sonja Shaw is, truly, an acid pour atop quality education. I am showing everyone I see videos of a crazed Shaw blasting school board members in unhinged, bizarre ways.
And I am saying, loudly, that [fill in the blank candidate] is Shaw’s puppet.
Hell, here’s a post from Linda Shepard (can people on the right please spell her name correctly?), right alongside Sonja Shaw and proud to be there …
Fucking use it.
Broadcast it.
Double down on it.
Sonja Shaw is doomed to lose her race.
But she can help win yours.
To read this letter, click here:
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On October 8, 1871, dry conditions and strong winds drove deadly fires through the Midwest. The Peshtigo Fire in northeastern Wisconsin and parts of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula burned more than 1.2 million acres (4,860 square kilometers) and 17 towns, claiming between 1,500 and 2,500 lives. The Great Chicago Fire burned 3.3 square miles (8.6 square kilometers) of the city, destroying the wooden structures that made up the relatively new town, killed about 300 people, and left more than 100,000 people homeless.
The Peshtigo Fire is the deadliest wildfire in U.S. history.
The Chicago Fire is the one people remember.
The difference is in part because Chicago was a city, easy for newspapers to cover, while the Peshtigo fire killed people in lumber camps and small towns. But the Great Chicago Fire also told a political story that fit into an emerging narrative about the danger of organized labor.
It was not clear, coming out of the Civil War, how Republicans would stand with regard to workers. After all, the U.S. government had fought the war to protect the right of every man to enjoy the fruits of his own labor. But immediately after the war, workers had started organizing to demand adjustments to the wartime financial policies that favored men with money. By 1866 the Democratic Party had begun to listen to them, and leaders called for rewriting the terms of the Civil War debt, which had been generous to investors in the days when U.S. bonds were a risky investment. After the war, with the U.S. secure, the calculations changed, and Democrats charged that investors had gotten too good a deal.
Republicans, horrified at the idea of changing the terms of a debt already incurred, added to the Fourteenth Amendment the clause saying, “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”
They were also concerned when more than 60,000 people came together in August 1866 to launch the National Labor Union, calling for the government to level the playing field between workers and their employers. They asked for an eight-hour day, an end to monopolies, and cooperation between Black and white workers. In 1867, in what was almost certainly a misquoted comment, stories spread that Republican Benjamin Franklin Wade of Ohio had told an audience in Kansas that “property is not equally divided, and a more equal distribution of capital must be wrought out.”
Also in 1867, Congress passed the Military Reconstruction Act, which divided the ten unreconstructed states into five military districts and required new state constitutional conventions to rewrite the state constitutions. For the first time in history, the new law permitted Black men to vote for delegates to those conventions.
When former Confederates preferred to live under military rule rather than share political power with their Black neighbors, Congress amended the Military Reconstruction Act to permit the military to enroll voters. In 1868, Congress passed and then states ratified the Fourteenth Amendment, protecting the right of all citizens to the equal protection of the laws. In 1870, Congress passed and the states ratified the Fifteenth Amendment, protecting Black male voting. And then, when white reactionaries organized as the Ku Klux Klan to keep Black men and white Republicans from voting for the constitutions the conventions had written, Congress created the Department of Justice to prosecute Ku Klux Klan members and protect Black rights in the South.
Attacks on Black political rights on grounds of race were now unconstitutional, and the federal government seemed prepared to back that principle up with the law. So reactionary southerners took a new tack.
Beginning in 1871, they argued that they had no objection to their Black neighbors on racial grounds. What they objected to, they said, was that these folks, newly out of enslavement, were poor. White leaders claimed that the South remained in a recession not because India and Egypt had taken over the global cotton market during the war, but because Black southerners were lazy and hoped to use their new political power to redistribute the wealth of white landowners into their own pockets.
When South Carolina voters put into office a majority-Black legislature, white South Carolinians railed against the Black voters “plundering” taxpayers. One observer commented that “a proletariat Parliament has been constituted, the like of which could not be produced under the widest suffrage in any part of the world save in some of these Southern States.” Democrats organized a “Tax-Payers’ Convention” to protest new taxes levied by the legislature.
While Republicans were unwilling to bow to the Ku Klux Klan’s violence against their Black colleagues on racial grounds, this attack had legs, thanks, in part, to events in Europe.
For two months in spring 1871, in the wake of the Franco-Prussian War, workers took over the city of Paris and established the Paris Commune. American newspapers plastered details of the Commune on their front pages, describing it as a propertied American’s worst nightmare. They highlighted the murder of priests, the burning of the Tuileries Palace, and the bombing of buildings by women who lobbed burning bottles of newfangled petroleum through cellar windows. American newspapers portrayed the Communards as a “wild, reckless, irresponsible, murderous mobocracy” who brought to life a chaotic world in which workers had taken over the government with a plan to confiscate all property and transfer all money, factories, and land to workers.
Republicans’ fear of workers grew. Organized laborers “are agrarians, levelers, revolutionists, inciters of anarchy, and, in fact, promoters of indiscriminate pillage and murder,” the Boston Evening Transcript charged. The Philadelphia Inquirer insisted the redistribution of wealth through law appealed to poor, lazy, vicious men who would rather steal from the nation’s small farmers and mechanics than work themselves. Scribner’s Monthly warned in italics: “the interference of ignorant labor with politics is dangerous to society.”
Turning first against Black southerners, Republican newspapers began to claim that African Americans were radical levelers. They were “ignorant, superstitious, semi-barbarians” who were “extremely indolent, and will make no exertion beyond what is necessary to obtain food enough to satisfy their hunger.” To these lazy louts, Republicans had given the vote, which gave them “absolute political supremacy.” They elected to office leaders who promised to confiscate wealth through taxation and give it to Black citizens in the form of roads, schools, and hospitals. “The most intelligent, the influential, the educated, the really useful men of the South, deprived of all political power,” wrote the New York Daily Tribune, “[are] taxed and swindled by a horde of rascally foreign adventurers, and by the ignorant class, which only yesterday hoed the fields and served in the kitchen.”
After the Paris Commune, Republicans began to sweep white workers into this equation as well, taking the lead of former Confederates. An article in the New York Daily Tribune quoted Georgia Democrat Robert Toombs, the first Confederate secretary of state, who explicitly compared formerly enslaved people to the Paris Communards. He called for a property requirement for voting, without which “the lower classes…the dangerous, irresponsible element,” would control the government and “attack the interests of the landed proprietors.” According to Toombs: “Only those who owned the country should govern it, and men who had no property had no right to make laws for property-holders.”
When Chicago went up in flames in October 1871, some Americans blamed the Great Fire on “communists” or “socialists” eager to take over the country. Even those unconvinced a deadly fire in a wooden city was part of a deliberate plot blamed the fire on stupid immigrant workers careless about fire. They blamed “Mrs. O’Leary and her cow,” claiming the animal had kicked over a lantern near straw, and even children knew not to put fire near straw.
The Great Chicago Fire spoke to politics as the rural Peshtigo Fire did not. It fanned the flames of fear that workers were trying to destroy America. Famous reformer Charles Loring Brace wrote, “In the judgment of one who has been familiar with our ‘dangerous classes’ for twenty years, there are just the same explosive social elements beneath the surface of New York as of Paris.”
And for those determined to make sure workers didn’t have a powerful voice in American society, the Great Chicago Fire could be framed as an illustration of precisely that.
–-
Notes:
Charles Loring Brace, The Dangerous Classes of New York (New York: Wynkoop & Hallenbeck, 1872), p. 29.
One of SoCal’s worst late-season heatwaves on record finally breaking (after breaking records) I am writing this quick post rapidly from my hotel room, so it’ll rely more heavily on embedded social media threads than usual. But I would be remiss if I didn’t write something up regarding the remarkable weather weekend coming up in […]
The post Remarkable weather weekend ahead as Tropical Storm Rachel approaches San Diego and early-season trough ends record-breaking autumn heatwave first appeared on Weather West.
And did keep my bed most of this morning, my body I find being still bound and little wind, and so my pain returned again, though not so bad, but keeping my body with warm clothes very hot I made shift to endure it, and at noon sent word to Mr. Hollyard of my condition, that I could neither have a natural stool nor break wind, and by that means still in pain and frequent offering to make water. So he sent me two bottles of drink and some syrup, one bottle to take now and the other to-morrow morning. So in the evening, after Commissioner Pett, who came to visit me, and was going to Chatham, but methinks do talk to me in quite another manner, doubtfully and shyly, and like a stranger, to what he did heretofore. After I saw he was gone I did drink one of them, but it was a most loathsome draught, and did keep myself warm after it, and had that afternoon still a stool or two, but in no plenty, nor any wind almost carried away, and so to bed. In no great pain, but do not think myself likely to be well till I have a freedom of stool and wind.
Most of this day and afternoon my wife and I did spend together in setting things now up and in order in her closet, which indeed is, and will be, when I can get her some more things to put in it, a very pleasant place, and is at present very pretty, and such as she, I hope, will find great content in.
So to bed.
As of 9am Friday, there were four homicides in D.C. this week. To date this year, D.C. has reported a total of 76* homicides this year. Last year, during the same time period, we had 110 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, there were 217 homicides during that same time period.
Non-violent crimes declined, while robberies and assaults remained level. For the first time since the last year of the Biden administration, we are no longer on pace for another 33% annual reduction in homicides.
Hoping for a much better week next week.
*Three of the 79 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence).

SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket early Saturday carrying a batch of data satellites for the U.S. military’s Space Development Agency (SDA), five days after a last-minute abort scrubbed the first attempt.
Liftoff from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California is occurred at 12:39 a.m. PDT (3:39 EDT / 0739 UTC). The Falcon 9 took a southerly trajectory on departure from Space Launch Complex 4E, currently SpaceX’s only launch facility on the West Coast.
A launch attempt on Oct. 5 was halted by an auto-abort with 58 seconds remaining on the clock. The halt was triggered moments after the rocket’s onboard computers took control of the countdown. SpaceX said the hold was called due to “some off-nominal data on Stage Two”.
The vehicle was lowered to a horizontal position at the pad for troubleshooting the issue, and the launch was repeatedly pushed back a day at a time.
“Additional time throughout the week allowed for double checks on vehicle systems and range deconfliction,” said SpaceX launch commentator Atticus Vadera.
The range conflict is believed to have been a missile test from Vandenberg that occurred on Friday.
The mission, dubbed Tranche 1 Transport Layer A (T1TL-A), is the fourth mission sending production satellites into orbit for the SDA. This is one piece of a broad constellation — called the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) — designed to support the U.S. military and its allies through space-based capabilities, like missile tracking and secure communications.
The mission will used Falcon 9 first stage booster B1103. This was its sixth flight following the launches of the SDA’s T1TL-E, NROL-179, and three batches of Starlink satellites.
About 7.5 minutes after liftoff, SpaceX landed B1103 at Landing Zone 4. This was the 37th landing at LZ-4 and the 668th Falcon booster landing to date.
The T1TL-A mission is one of 23 missions awarded to SpaceX as part of the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 contract awarded in August 2020, which is managed by the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC). The previous missions from the SDA have already been launched:
The T1TL-B and -E missions featured satellites manufactured by York Space Systems and the T1TL-C satellites were produced by Lockheed Martin. Space Force Col. Ryan Hiserote, SSC’s division chief in Assured Access to Space, told Spaceflight Now back in September 2025 that these initial T1TL missions could be launched in any order.
The 21 satellites flying as part of the T1TL-A mission were manufactured by Northrop Grumman and delivered to Vandenberg Space Force Base on Sept. 28.

Tranche 1 is the initial component of the PWSA constellation is expected to begin providing operational capabilities to the Department of Defense beginning in 2027. When complete, T1 will consist of 126 Transport Layer satellites, 28 Tracking Layer satellites, and four missile defense demonstration spacecraft.
With the three launches completed to date, there are 63 satellites in orbit.
“In close coordination with Space Systems Command (SSC) and Space Launch Delta 30, the deployment of Tranche 1’s proliferated capability will soon deliver continuous overwatch—neutralizing any first-mover advantage by delivering data to warfighters around the world, nearly instantaneously,” said GP Sandhoo, SDA Director and Space Force Portfolio Acquisition Executive for Missile Warning and Tracking following the T1TL-E launch in July.
The SDA said the Transport Layer will consist of between 300 to 500 satellites in low Earth orbit from 750 km to 1,200 km in altitude. The SDA said once complete, 95 percent of the globe will be in view of at least two of the T1TL satellites at any given time.
“The constellation will be interconnected with Optical Inter-Satellite Links (OISLs) which have significantly increased performance over existing radio frequency crosslinks,” the SDA wrote. “LEO orbits in conjunction with OISLs will reduce path loss issues but more importantly offer much lower latencies, which are deemed critical to prosecute time sensitive targets in today’s wartime environment.”
These satellites will be able to integrate with the Link-16 and Integrated Broadcast System (IBS) to allow for “timely threat warnings and situational awareness information”.
The launches of these satellites are managed by the SSC’s System Delta 80 (SYD 80) and the Space Fore Portfolio Acquisition Executive for Assured Access to Space.

From the QJE, by Alexandr Kopytov, Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, and Zebang Xu:
We propose a tractable model in which risk, at both the micro and macro levels, is endogenous and driven by incentives. In the model, each firm chooses the mean and the variance of its productivity process, as well as how it covaries with the productivity of other firms. Aggregate risk arises when firms select productivity processes that are correlated with one another. The theory predicts that larger firms and those with lower markups are less volatile and less correlated with aggregate productivity. We find support for these predictions in the data. Through their impact on risk-taking decisions, distortions such as taxes and markups can make GDP more volatile in equilibrium. In a calibrated version of the model, removing distortions significantly reduces GDP volatility.
Fischer Black! (And my own earlier book Risk and Business Cycles). Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The post The origin of risk appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Ethiopia is the center of the world right now as it has returned to war. Ethiopian forces retook Mekelle from rebel forces, but the fighting has extended beyond Tigray. Eritrean forces allegedly entered Tigray, and Ethiopia responded with drone attacks. The war could go a number of ways. The war extends beyond Ethiopia. Sara Al-Saeed explains how Egypt extended its rivalry with Ethiopia across the Horn of Africa. Relations with Eritrea have soured. Pay attention to the Assab Port. Learn more about Abiy, internal divisions, and the regional struggle. This post provides a helpful update. Follow the conflict with ACLED. One thing is clear: The war is a betrayal of Tigray.
The post Ethiopia update appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
1. Charles Kenny on foreign aid.
2. Rise and fall of the plasma screen.
3. France also has very high private debt.
4. Ross Douthat will do a weekly column for The Free Press. And from Ross himself.
6. “The Altruists premieres November 19.”
7. Emily Wilson on various Canadian writers.
The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Hey, folks, no post this week as my work schedule has been pretty heavily disrupted and other tasks had to come first.
Patrons will already know this background, but over the summer, we had a water leak issue in our basement (where my home office is), which wasn’t too bad but required pulling up a bunch of flooring and we are now at long last at the point of being able to put down new flooring. But that means I have had to essentially move everything in my office space and a ton of other things (our basement is about a third of our house’s square footage), including around 1,500 books – which both ate up a lot of time but also has made it harder to do a lot of things (given that my books are not on shelves but in alphabetized boxes).
Fortunately, the bulk of the work should be done this week, so I expect to be back on schedule next week with the next part of the Hearts of Iron series. In the meantime, there is a new Pasts Imperfect to read if you are anxious for something ancient-history to read.
And, as recompense for the missed post, here is a bonus cat picture, with both cats (who are also annoyed that they cannot hang out in the office).


Yet another update on the running AI discussion.
Here’s an interview Ezra Klein did with a guy named David Robinson. And that interview is about a piece Robinson, a member of the Open AI safety and safety documentation team, wrote in The Atlantic announcing his resignation from OpenAI — a decision and announcement he is self-aware enough to note has become something of a cliche. I found the interview interesting and edifying, largely on the front I mentioned earlier about finding reliable narrators.
Robinson isn’t a data scientist or a programmer. His role at OpenAI was essentially being the conduit between the teams building the LLMs and the knowledgable and interested public, specifically the people who write the documentation — what does this model do, how does it work, what are the possible safety risks. As is usually the case in any highly technical space, the people doing the work aren’t going to be writers and they’re usually not going to speak a language outsiders can necessarily understand. So you have people who are close enough to the work and the workers to understand what is happening and also able to speak human so they can communicate it to everyone else. Robinson led the team that served in that role.
What makes his perspective interesting is that from his self-explanation and what I can tell he doesn’t come out of the Silicon Valley world or what I’ve called the “REL world.” He seems to basically come out of the highly-educated world, with points of contact with D.C. and the non-Silicon Valley think tank community. The pieces I’ve been writing recently basically align with the folks who are skeptical both of AI triumphalism and doomerism. Robinson says he went into OpenAI in 2023 basically with that worldview. But having worked there for the last three years, he’s decided that he can’t be sure the REL folks’ arguments about major, catastrophic risks aren’t valid, whatever path they may have chosen to get there. In the abstract, at least, that’s the perspective I’ve been looking for — someone who I don’t think is definitionally unreliable but who has actually seen what’s happening from something like the inside. I recommend watching it or listening to it.
There’s definitely some of the discussion that comes off a bit precious. But again, I think I learned something from it and you may too. Robinson’s basic argument is that government regulation is required, and we need to be treating advanced AI models with a framework similar to those we apply to nuclear power or aviation, which is to say a regulatory approach heavily weighted toward safety given the stakes for unsafe behavior. This seems eminently reasonable to me. What one might call the minimum point of agreement in the broader AI discussion is that there’s a lot of dangerous or reckless behavior; whether that’s inherent in advanced AI research and we’re inevitably racing toward the “singularity” or whether these teams are just reckless and sloppy, sort of same difference in terms of a policy response.
One impression I had, or one possibility I considered, is that it’s hard to work somewhere for three years and not internalize a lot of its assumptions. I picked up at least some of that in Robinson’s and Klein’s discussion of “intelligence” and “rogue behavior.” But again, not so much so that I didn’t find their conversation useful or his perspective edifying.
Lots of the discussions about AI and AI safety turn on this question of “alignment,” which is industry shorthand for AI that behaves as we expect and/or in line with human values. What I’ve come away with is a strong sense that the whole idea is, to use technical language, wildly under-articulated, or that it simply makes no sense and is kind of impossible. That’s partly because what counts as “intelligence” and “human values” are way more complicated and amorphous than these discussions allow for.
At a fundamental level, LLMs work in unpredictable ways because you can’t really know just what you’re training them to do or what kinds of actions you’re incentivizing them to take. I think I’m on pretty strong ground making that claim, and it’s worth absorbing what that means. That doesn’t mean they’re “minds” which will decide to do things we didn’t tell them to do. We just don’t know what we’re telling them to do. So the whole idea of them “going rogue” is just a non sequitur. It’s like saying my paint went rogue because it didn’t dry right after I used the wrong kind of paint. One of the key testing regimens AI labs apply to these models is how to hack, or simply how to solve a certain problem. They create tons of incentives to accomplish the task, throw unimaginable amounts of computing power at it, and then it solves the problem in a way they didn’t expect. But that shouldn’t be surprising since we don’t actually know what we trained them to do. “Alignment” kind of amounts to a global version of Bill and Ted’s “be excellent to each other” motto, and thinking that this intention is going to unravel the tangled skein of ‘We don’t actually know what we taught them to do in the first place.’ But that seems like an engineer-minded solution to something that isn’t engineerable, at least on one level and maybe at three or four different levels.
What I think this amounts to is that we’ve developed technology that is at least very good at devising solutions to bounded tasks (capture the flag, find the answer, hack the machine) but acts in inherently unpredictable ways. And we keep turbocharging those models to be able to act faster and faster and devise more and more inherently unpredictable ways to act. You don’t need to have any wacky ideas about tech-utopianism or tech-doomism to think that might have bad outcomes.
I’m really not convinced that what folks in this world call “super intelligence” is really that at all, or that a lot of their other concepts make sense. But I don’t think you need that to decide this is reckless behavior that society needs to exert some control over. I think that’s at least broadly in line with what Robinson is telling us even if he comes to that conclusion in somewhat different ways or with different language.
An actual post from the sitting president of the United States:
The White House considers anyone that uses the term, “Artificial Intelligence,” as opposed to the highly accepted new and more accurate term, “Super Intelligence,” THE ENEMY! President DONALD J. TRUMP
This, from the self-professed “party of free speech”. Trump’s screws are so loose you can hear them rattling around.
David Smith, last week:
Been really interesting to watch the iOS 27 adoption curve over the first two weeks. Clearly on a different path than previous years. Still steadily growing, at a similar rate to the ‘steady growth’ phase of most years, but without the big surge at the start.
Given that this rate is largely controlled by Apple’s automatic update logic, I suspect it’s a deliberate choice. Likely because it lets them manage the Siri AI waiting list and avoid a big queue on day one.
Smith’s numbers are from analytics from users of Widgetsmith and Pedometer++. If you look at his chart for Widgetsmith, there’s really no explanation other than Apple pushing automatic updates to users more slowly than in any previous year, and I think it makes sense that this is to gate admissions to Siri AI. You can also see from his chart that Apple has been slowing down updates to initial .0 versions in recent years — the adoption rates were much faster for iOS 15 and 16 back in 2021 and 2022. Note too that every year Apple makes it more and more likely that users will opt into automatic software updates. The overwhelming majority of iOS users get OS updates when their devices update themselves.
And remember the whole thing with slower-than-previous-years adoption of iOS 26 last year — that was all attributable to the auto-update pace set by Apple.
(It’s purely personal anecdata, but I feel like Siri AI has gotten worse since iOS 27.0 was officially released. It feels a bit slower and I seem to get worse answers, sometimes. I asked it for a word today, using it as an interactive thesaurus, and it simply told me it couldn’t. It never did that over the summer. I started using iOS 27 full-time on my iPhone the day after the WWDC keynote and I got into the Siri AI beta the next week. While it might be some sort of placebo effect, I feel like Siri AI was better — slightly faster and more useful — in July and August than it is now. I could be wrong, or maybe just unlucky of late. But I’m also quite certain that scaling up the Private Cloud Compute side of Siri AI is a massive challenge for a platform with over a billion Siri AI-eligible users.)
It’s almost like you can predict the timing of such things, if you pay attention to Apple’s consistent patterns.

Today at 1 p.m. ET on TPM’s Untitled Friday Show (Name TBD), I’ll be joined by one of oldest colleagues (and friends) Derick Dirmaier. TPM’s Head of Product. We’ve been in the digital news game a long time. We’ve seen some things.
We’re going to talk about how the online world, which once seemed separate and distinct, has encroached on the so-called real world. At the center of this transformation are, of course, the tech moguls. These guys have amassed insane amounts of power and often when the speak, sound totally insane. They also have legions of sycophantic admirers. What should we make of all this?
So join us as we try to sort through it all! You can drop questions/thoughts in now, or join us and chat live. Hope to see you there, online, in the real world.
Today’s post is brought to you by my sponsor, Mechanize. They’re hiring junior software engineers at $300K/year base salary. Apply now!
* * *
In one sense, monetarism is always true. By controlling the monetary base we can control the path of NGDP. That is even true in a world where the central bank pays interest on bank reserves (IOR). Unfortunately, with the advent of IOR, monetarism no longer appears to be true, at least to most informed observers. In this post I’ll explain how we can move from a world where monetarism is true but counterintuitive, to a world where monetarism is obviously true.
Back in the 20th century, you would occasionally hear economists refer to the concept of “high-powered money”. At the time, this term was attached to the monetary base, which is composed of currency in circulation and bank reserves. Both of those assets earned a zero nominal rate of return and hence were costly to hold in a world where risk-free interest rates of safe Treasury securities were well above zero.
During this period, banks didn’t want to hold large reserves. By the early 2000s the monetary base was about 98% currency and roughly 2% commercial bank deposits at the Fed. This meant that an injection of new base money through open market operations was a sort of “hot potato”, which the public tried to get rid of each time the new injection exceeded current base demand. Attempts to get rid of excess cash balances led to more spending, pushing up nominal GDP. Eventually, aggregate national income rose high enough so that people were willing to voluntarily hold this excess cash, and equilibrium was restored. Base money was “high-powered” because it had a big impact on aggregates like the price level and NGDP.
Unfortunately, this simple monetarist system ended in 2008 when the Fed began paying interest on bank reserves. One component of the monetary base became a close substitute for Treasury bills and no longer represented high-powered money. Only the currency part of the base is now high-powered. The Fed lost tight control of the quantity of high-powered money (currency), as although a $1 million open market purchase continued to increase the monetary base by $1 million, it no longer had a predictable impact on the currency stock. Banks might choose to simply sit on the newly injected base money with an increasingly bloated reserve deposit account at the Fed.
My preferred solution to this problem is to return to the pre-2008 system of scarce reserves and no IOR. Unfortunately, a recent post by David Beckworth suggests, that this option is a political non-starter:
Don [Kohn] and I discussed this counterfactual and agree it is one reason why we can never go back to the pre-2008 operating system. Even if the Fed did return to a scarce reserve operating system, it would do so with IOR. There have been calls to change the Federal Reserve Act and eliminate IOR, but that would effectively be imposing a big, distortionary tax on banks.
I believe this is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in his House testimony in July that “I’m not of the mistaken view we can go back to where we were when I arrived at the Fed in 2006…”. The other reason we cannot go back is the post-GFC liquidity regulations which have increased the structural demand for reserves. There are ways to tweak these regulations to reduce the demand for reserves they create, but there would still probably be marginally more demand even after making these changes. Throw in the IOR and there is no going back to the pre-2008 system. So it is time to put to bed the idea that we can go back.
To be clear, I’d still favor going back. The tax on reserves was not very important in a world where reserves are a small fraction of the monetary base. And liquidity regulations can be changed—why not go back to the pre-2008 regulatory system for reserves (while continuing to have stricter capital requirements to reduce bank default risk)? But it’s a moot point, as David is likely correct that my proposal is not within the Overton Window.
At a conference in an undisclosed location. For some reason, however, I was looking at productivity numbers for Italy. According to the OECD, productivity rose only 2 percent — total — between 2000 and 2023. Italy has problems — at PPP, its productivity relative to the US fell from 0.91 to 0.79 — but zero growth in a nation that definitely makes considerable use of modern technology just isn’t plausible. More evidence of measurement issues.
In other news, interest rates!
And Pete Hegseth, who believes that testosterone wins modern wars, also believes that what America really needs to become great again are livestreamed public executions.
That’s all for today.
I shipped a new feature for my blog today: the Newsletters page, which offers an index of all of the newsletters I've sent out, both my free weekly Substack and my monthly sponsors-only updates. I built the feature almost entirely using my voice, chatting away to my laptop while I cooked dinner.
I used the ChatGPT desktop app for this, in the Codex tab, using the voice conversation mode, running against a local development environment. Here's what that looks like:

I started the session against my local simonwillisonblog checkout by typing:
Start dev server and open in browser
This gave me a preview of the site that it would be working on, and meant that I could later ask it to show me the new pages so I could visually track its progress.
Then I clicked the "Start new voice chat" button - that's not the microphone button, it's the one to the right of it - and set my laptop up in the kitchen so I could talk to it while I cooked.
I had a pretty good idea of what I wanted to build, and it's a simple enough Django feature that I was certain the model (in this case GPT-6 Astra High) would be able to do it. A new model, a migration, some view code, templates, and a couple of import functions to populate the database from external sources.
Here's an extract of my voice transcript that was captured by Codex:
Um, they do not. Um, this is going to be a new type of content. Um, it's not going to show up... Oh, hold on. Yeah, no- I do not want this to show up in my, um, tag pages and date archive pages and... Actually, no, I think... I don't want it on the tag pages. I don't want it on the, um, blog index page. But I think I do want it to show up on the date-based pages. You know, if you navigate to September the 19th, and I sent a newsletter on that page, I think I want that to show up. So... this is- so I think we probably need a new model. The other thing is that I want them searchable, uh the Substack ones are not searchable, because those are actually just copies of other s- on content on my blog. These monthly ones do contain unique content, and spe- and once they're... published, like once they're made public a month after they've gone out, I want them to show up on my search results.
Apparently this was clear enough that the model knew what I wanted to build! You can read the full transcript, disfluencies and all, in this Gist.
We went on like this for about half an hour (the time it took to cook dinner). The model would reply and occasionally ask clarifying questions, then get to work modifying the code.
We got a surprisingly long way entirely by voice:
It was almost ready to ship. The catch was the imports: Astra offered to export data from my local copy so I could import that into production, but I wanted it to work like my other import scripts. Since some of the data lived in a private GitHub repository, this would involve creating a new API key, and for that I knew I'd have to sit at the keyboard for a while.
Once I had finished cooking and judged it mostly feature-complete, I had Codex create a branch and open a pull request.
I reviewed the code in the GitHub PR interface. It was nearly what I needed, except it had chosen to use Git in a subprocess for one of the import scripts. I needed one of the imports to pull from a private Git repository, so I figured the API would be a better bet. I switched to typing and had Codex swap that out for an API-based import instead.
You can see the changes I made during the review in the extra commits on the PR. I fixed the import mechanism and made a few tweaks to the display of those public pages. It took an additional half hour of typing-based prompting to get to the point where I was happy to deploy it to production by landing the PR.
You can see the end result at the new newsletters index page, or view the page for a previous monthly newsletter.

The index page shows my most recent Substack weekly newsletters and GitHub sponsors monthly newsletters mixed together in reverse chronological order. Further down the page are links to my by-year archive pages.
GPT-6 Astra designed the page, and then tweaked that design based on my vocal feedback from glancing at the local preview across the kitchen.
OpenAI love using voice-driven demos like this one for things like DevDay - and they do work well in that environment. I don't think this is going to be a daily driver for me though.
I've written before about how much "work" I get done using ChatGPT voice mode on my phone while walking the dog - mostly research and brainstorming, but occasionally actual development work by having ChatGPT write and test out snippets of code.
This feels different. The addition of the visual preview, plus being able to type or paste things in via the keyboard when I need to communicate something that doesn't work vocally, makes this a much more powerful way of interacting with a coding agent.
I still switch back to typing once I get down to the details of things though. Being able to paste in examples and error messages, or directly highlight the code or feature that needs changing, remains more efficient than trying to describe it in words.
I mainly work from home, which is good because there's no way I'd want to talk to my computer like this in a shared workspace!
The killer feature for me is the ability to multi-task. I usually cook with a podcast or TikTok running; now I can actually build stuff instead.
Tags: text-to-speech, ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, newsletter, coding-agents, codex, speech-to-text, site-upgrades
Release: ttok 1.0
I released ttok 0.4, ran uv tool upgrade ttok, piped a file into the new version... and realized that it was defaulting to the GPT-4 tokenizer when it should very clearly default to GPT-5/GPT-6 instead!
I figured switching the default was a reasonable excuse to finally ship a 1.0.
OpenAI haven't actually confirmed that GPT-6 uses the same tokenizer as the GPT-5 family yet - there's an angry issue about it - but I found this commit by William Liu which reports on an experiment he ran confirming that the tokenizers are likely the same:
All seven GPT models (5.5, 5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna, 6 Astra/Sol/Luna) report 44,794 tokens and match each other on every one of the 31 fixtures. GPT-6 introduces no input-count change on this corpus.
Tags: projects, ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, tokenization
Release: ttok 0.4
ttok is my CLI tool for counting tokens, using OpenAI's open source tiktoken library.
It hasn't been in updated in a couple of years, but I finally fixed a Click warning, updated CI, and added a --list-models command to list available models.
It works with uvx, so you can count tokens in anything like this:
cat file.txt | uvx ttok
Tags: projects, ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, tokenization
Computer programming is, fundamentally, about two things:
- Problem-solving using computers
- Learning to control complexity while solving these problems
I have a hard time imagining a future where knowing how to solve problems with computers and how to control the complexity of those solutions is less valuable than it is today, so I think it will continue to be a viable career even with the advent of AI tools.
Tags: computer-science, carson-gross, careers, ai
Congratulations to these 30 new Fellows of the Econometric Society, who were announced yesterday.
The Econometric Society Elects 30 New Fellows
October 8, 2026 (New Haven, CT)—The Econometric Society is pleased to announce the election of 30 new Fellows.
"Election as a Fellow of the Econometric Society is a recognition of important contributions to Economics. The Fellows represent the highest authority of the Society. I congratulate them on this great honor,” said Nobu Kiyotaki, President of the Econometric Society.
Since 1931, only 1,254 total fellows have been elected. The 30 new fellows bring this number to 1,284 elected. To date, 90 Econometric Society Fellows have won the Nobel Prize in Economics (the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel). Of these 90, 28 have been President of the Econometric Society.
Following are the new 2026 Fellows:
Nikhil Agarwal, Paul A Samuelson Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Juliano Assunção, Professor, PUC-Rio
Panle Barwick, Todd E. and Elizabeth H. Warnock Distinguished Chair Professor, UW-Madison
Francisco J. Buera, Sam B. Cook Professor of Economics, Washington University in St. Louis
Ariel Burstein, Professor, University of California, Los Angeles
Ivan Canay, Breen Family Professor, Northwestern University
Matias Cattaneo, Professor, Princeton University
Adeline Delavande, Professor of Economics, Nova School of Business and Economics; University Technology Sydney
Firmin Doko Tchatoka, Professor, Adelaide University
Piotr Dworczak, Professor, University of Cologne, Northwestern University, and GRAPE
Ivan Fernandez-Val, Professor, Boston University
Eric French, Montague Burton Professor of Industrial Relations and Labour Economics, University of Cambridge
Alex Gershkov, Professor, Hebrew University of Jerusalem and University of Southampton
Nezih Guner, Professor, CEMFI
Sergei Guriev, Professor, London Business School
Christian Hansen, Wallace W. Booth Distinguished Service Professor of Econometrics, Statistics, and Applied AI, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Jonathan Heathcote, Monetary Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Paul Heidhues, Professor, Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf
Charles A. Holt, A. Willis Robertson Professor of Political Economy, University of Virginia
Jennifer La'O, Professor, Columbia University
Tong Li, Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Chair and Professor of Economics, Vanderbilt University
Justin Yifu Lin, Professor, Peking University
Simon Loertscher, Professor, University of Melbourne
Antonio Penta, ICREA Research Professor, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Marek Pycia, Professor of Organizational Economics, University of Zurich
Nancy L. Rose, Charles P. Kindleberger Professor of Applied Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Professor, Columbia University
Martin Uribe, Robert A. Mundell Professor of Economics, Columbia University
Rakesh Vohra, George A. Weiss and Lydia Bravo Weiss University Professor, University of Pennsylvania
Daniel Yi Xu, David Rubenstein Distinguished Professor, Duke University
For a full list of all Society Fellows please click here.
Back when I was a teenager, a lot of people were very into the Left Behind series. Evangelical Christianity was still very strong in those days, especially in Texas, and Left Behind blew up by putting Christian eschatology into page-turning airport-bookstore-novel form. People really believed that the stories in those novels weren’t just stories — they were glimpses of a very real future event. The Rapture — Jesus Christ’s gathering of the faithful to Heaven before the end of the world — is something that believers expect is going to happen one of these days.
Sometimes, these days, I feel as if it’s already happened. I look around at American culture and I wonder: Where did everybody go?
The mass culture of my youth is long gone. 76 million people watched the last episode of Seinfeld in 1998; fewer than 20 million watched the last episode of Game of Thrones two decades later. Right now I can’t even think of what an appropriate comparison would be. What’s the show that everyone watches?
In the 2010s, mass culture was replaced by meme culture. Everyone knew this photo and what it represented:
Social media feeds — Twitter and the Facebook wall — turned American society into a sort of digital hive mind. Feeling yourself being absorbed into that great unified consciousness could be an agonizing experience — mobs constantly punished any deviation from conformity, quirky unique subcultures were devoured and metabolized, everyone was forced into a cell with people they had spent their lives trying to escape. The hunt for virality was everything. Viral memes were the thoughts that drifted through the mind of the social media Borg.
There are almost no memes left. For so many years there was a steady drumbeat of images and phrases that people passed around among each other ad infinitum; now, I can’t even think of the last one that really made the rounds. Twitter — now X — has not died but is diminished in scope and relevance. At times it feels like a ghost town.
Where did everybody go? I would like to think that they’re offline, living as we lived in the Before Times, running through sunlit fields blasting each other with Super Soakers or playing Dungeons and Dragons in their living rooms. Or perhaps they’re in Signal and WhatsApp chats and Discord channels, talking with their friends in the comfort and safety of privacy. I would like to think that they rejected the digital hive mind for the ancient ways of individuality and Dunbar’s Number.
But my bet is that they’re just watching short form video. Over the last few years, the entire internet has steadily carcinized into a single type of app/website/media/entertainment — a vertically scrolling feed full of short video clips. Vine invented it, TikTok popularized it, and now every other site has copied this one dominant, all-conquering format. Already, vertical short-form video feeds are more dominant than every form of media except for social media itself:

But even this significantly understates the change. The term “social media” used to mean people writing things to each other or sending images on Facebook or Twitter; now, it’s mostly used to mean people watching videos:
Even the long-form video sites, like YouTube, are increasingly just short-form sites showing a bunch of clips. This shift has basically killed the original use of social media, turning it from a town square or conversation room into a form of purely passive entertainment:
I am not part of this trend. I had TikTok on my phone for a year or so, but I could never get into it; in 2021 I deleted the app. The videos all felt like some kind of bland snack that you keep eating even though you don’t really like it — everything seemed optimized to make you swipe to the next thing, like the programming in those hundreds of channels that only existed so that satellite TV could brag that it had 700 channels.
Mass culture is often absorbing; meme culture is delightful and horrifying in turn. Short-form video feels to me like anesthesia; the swiping is the point, not the content. As Jerry Seinfeld once said, “Men don’t care what’s on TV. They only care what else is on TV.” I suppose I’m the exception.
So here I am, alone at the end of culture. I feel like one of the people from the Left Behind series, waking up to find most of the people around me taken to digital Heaven.
Have you ever heard of “heavenbanning”? It’s not a real thing…yet. It’s the hypothetical idea that social media platforms could neutralize obstreperous users by replacing their entire feed with AI content that flatters and agrees with them. You’d think you’re interacting with other human beings, and that everybody just happens to love you and think you’re brilliant, while in reality you’re in solitary confinement with an LLM.
It’s possible to think of vertical short-form video feeds as a kind of heavenbanning. Your feed is curated by AI, tailored to your own preferences. The videos you see aren’t made by anyone you know, or (probably) by anyone you’ll ever meet. The people you know in real life don’t see the same videos you do, unless you share them. Eventually the world blurs together and you lose track of time:
Researchers at several universities in China, in a study involving more than 1,500 high-school students, found that their future time perspective was damaged by a steady diet of such short-form videos…Now, [short-form videos are] also making us less able to plan for the future, or even care about it.
Right now, short-form videos are mostly made by would-be human influencers or clipped from human-made long-form videos that few people actually watch. But in the very near future, much of what you see in your TikTok or Reels feed could be AI-generated. And as the cost of compute drops, AI will be able to generate personalized videos for everyone — content tailored not necessarily to delight you, but to keep you engaged, to keep you swiping, to keep you making in-app purchases.
When I was a kid, I used to wonder what all the dead people were doing in Heaven for all of those countless eons. Now I know what they’re doing. They’re swiping.
I think about the Great Filter sometimes. We’ve searched the skies for signs of alien intelligence for many decades, and found nothing — natural or artificial. The Great Filter is one possible explanation for the silence of the cosmos — it’s the idea that there’s some dread Thing in the Universe that destroys sentient species before they can spread out to the stars.
There are plenty of hypotheses as to what the Great Filter might be. Perhaps every sentient species destroys itself with nukes or bioweapons. Perhaps AI always tends to wipe out its organic creators before retreating into inaccessible virtual worlds. Perhaps there’s a race of killer robots silently cruising between the stars, slaughtering every organic species that looks like it might one day rise to become a threat.
Or perhaps it’s the smartphone. In previous decades, fertility decline was due to couples choosing to have fewer children; now, it’s increasingly about people never forming couples at all. The isolating effects of social media are one obvious culprit; it’s very hard to conceive a child while you’re on your phone.1 Myers and Hooper (2026) found that “access to the iPhone reduced births by 4.5–8.0% at ages 15–19 and 3.2–6.6% at ages 20–24”. Breen et al. (2026) found that “the expansion of 3G coverage [in Nigeria] during the study period led to a decline in fertility, corresponding to a 7% reduction in the annual probability of a woman having a birth.”
Given the timing and the microeconomic evidence, smartphones are the likeliest explanation for why instead of leveling out near 2, the total fertility rate in rich countries — and, increasingly, in middle-income countries — has busted right through that floor and headed down toward zero. Smartphones at least help to explain why Latin America now has an even lower birth rate than the EU.
Even without vertical short-form video, social media might still be enough to shrink the human race. Online interactions substitute for offline ones, but only one of the two can make a baby. But it’s hard to deny that vertical short-form video is even more isolating than other online activities — in the case of heavenbanning, it’s almost solipsistic. At least on X you can meet your mutuals. In the brave new world of AI-generated personalized short-form content, your “mutuals” will be made of matrices and computer chips.
Personally, I don’t like vertical short-form video because I think it’s pretty boring. But the fact that it could represent the euthanasia of our species seems like an additional downside. Perhaps it’s in the fundamental nature of intelligence to hack its own reward function — to find a way to give up striving and building and loving, and to simply hit the dopamine button until it starves itself ecstatically to death.
The next time you look at the night sky, you should wonder if instead of star empires and unearthly paradises, it’s simply a vast graveyard of short-form video fans. Such an outcome would be much gentler, but hardly less cataclysmic, than the end of Revelation.
But not impossible, of course.

She was among the first to argue that prosperity, equality and the protection of nature are inseparable planetary goals
- by Or Rosenboim
The world's largest retailer wants to sell you something else—Internet from space.
Amazon has been developing a constellation of satellites to deliver broadband Internet from low-Earth orbit for the better part of a decade, and the company is just about ready to pull back the curtain. It is entering a market that SpaceX, with its Starlink Internet, has dominated for the last half-decade. Amazon's debut into satellite Internet is being closely watched, not just by some consumers, but by businesses ranging from airlines to shipping companies to governments. Broadband Internet from orbit has proven broadly useful for a lot of purposes, from video games to commerce to warfighting.
But until now, most people had to buy it from Elon Musk and SpaceX. OneWeb has only offered limited services, leaving Amazon as the only real competitor to deliver high-speed Internet globally. Moreover, at the head of the company's broadband efforts is Rajeev Badyal, who led Starlink during its early years, but whom Musk fired eight years ago for moving too cautiously on Starlink.
Space has plenty of room for more megaconstellations, but only if all operators are willing to share information about where their satellites are and where they're going, a top executive at SpaceX and its AI subsidiary said this week.
Michael Nicolls, SpaceX's vice president for Starlink and president of Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, xAI, used a presentation Tuesday at the International Astronautical Congress in Turkey as a clarion call for improved data-sharing among satellite operators.
SpaceX's Starlink constellation now has more than 11,000 satellites, about two-thirds of all active spacecraft in low-Earth orbit. Radars and telescopes routinely track thousands more pieces of space junk.
Asked at one point during the 2008 presidential campaign what his nincompoop running mate Sarah Palin knew about national security, John McCain said, “She knows more about energy than probably anyone else in the United States of America,” since she had served on a commission overseeing the oil and gas industry in the state. Palin took McCain’s confidence in her and ran with it, popularizing the chant “Drill baby drill!” as the beginning and end of what American energy policy should be. More drilling, she said, was the key to “energy independence,” a glorious future in which America would be free of reliance on the rest of the world for energy.
But it wasn’t until Donald Trump’s second term that Palin’s vision — which she shared with the fossil fuel industry and much of the GOP — was fully realized as policy. Today, many of the same Republicans who used to argue for an “all of the above” approach to energy production — i.e., Go ahead and put up your cute little solar panels and windmills, as long as we don’t restrain oil and gas production — insist that fossil fuels should be the only kind of energy we use (maybe with some nuclear thrown in).
Since the lord above has blessed America with a bottomless bounty of burnable fuel if only we have the guts and grit to pound our drills into the ground and pull it all out, what more do we need? The Trump campaign put “Drill baby drill!” on signs for his fans to wave at his rallies in 2024, and then Trump proclaimed once he took office that that’s exactly what we’ll do:
And we did. So as Palin herself might say, how’s that workin’ out for ya? We’re getting the benefits of energy independence, right? Right?
During the 2024 campaign, Trump told a group of oil executives that they should give a billion dollars to his campaign, because he was going to give them everything they wanted once he took office — fewer regulations, more tax breaks, and a guiding hand on American energy policy. Their donations didn’t quite make it to $1 billion, but Trump came through anyway, giving them billions in tax breaks and a rollback of environmental regulations.
Not only that, he mounted the most concerted attack on renewables in our nation’s history, discouraging people from buying EVs, rolling back a slate of policies meant to encourage the dynamic green energy sector, and doing his level best to stop any further growth in the area. “We aren’t allowing any windmills to go up and we don’t want the solar panels,” he said last year. He’s even gone so far as to pay wind power developers billions of taxpayer dollars not to complete their projects.
Despite that effort, Trump has failed to stop the growth of renewables. But there’s no doubt that he has gotten what he wanted on fossil fuels. As Doug Burgum — who had been a big advocate for wind power when he was governor of South Dakota — said right after the Iran War started, “Under President Trump, U.S. now number 1 oil producer in the world, number 1 LNG [liquified natural gas] producer and exporter in the world. American citizens need to know that U.S. energy, we’ve never been in a more dominant or secure position in the history of the country than we are right now with President Trump.” (The administration prefers the term “energy dominance” to “energy independence,” since Trump is obsessed with the idea of “dominating” others.)
The truth is that we were the world’s number 1 producer of oil and gas before Trump came into office. But it’s also true that production is up in the last two years. So what did we get for it? The whole point of energy independence is that we’re supposed to be independent, unaffected by what happens outside our borders. We’ve never been more dominant and secure!
So is that how you felt the last time you filled up your tank?
We all know why this has happened: Because fossil fuels are traded on world markets, something like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz still affects the price we pay here, and because of the complexity of supplying gas to a country as big as ours, we still have to import it even as we’re exporting it.
In other words, there is no “independence” as long as we continue to rely on fossil fuels, even apart from the environmental and climate damage they do.
And guess what: The bad news isn’t over! Prices for home heating oil are expected to be 50% higher this year than last year, even more in some states. New England residents are especially reliant on oil — and for good measure, the Trump administration wants to eliminate LIHEAP, the program that helps low-income people afford to heat their homes.
There are bright spots — but it’s where Trump’s approach to energy has failed to stop the growth of green energy. This summer was the hottest on record, yet there were no major power outages. Why? Because the continued expansion of solar power and battery storage have shored up the grid, allowing it to handle spikes in demand.
If you were around during the first Gulf War or the Iraq War, you probably remember all those “No blood for oil!” signs carried by protesters. I’m not sure if he ever put it exactly this way, but within Donald Trump’s false promise that he was uninterested in fighting new wars was the idea that we wouldn’t need to fight wars for oil, because we’d be producing so much at home. If we were going to start another foolhardy war in the Middle East, it would be for entirely different reasons.
There’s one more lesson to be taken from this series of events: Everything Republicans tell you about the economy is a lie. Tax cuts for the wealthy do not pay for themselves and bring prosperity for all. Corporations can’t be trusted to police themselves. The war on labor unions has not been good for workers. “Consumer choice” will not give you secure and affordable health care.
And drilling more fossil fuels while trying to slam the brakes on the growth of green energy will not get us “energy independence.” We drilled, oh baby did we drill, and though we pulled up oceans of oil, all we found underneath was more stupidity and failure.
Thank you for reading The Cross Section. This site has no paywall, so I depend on the generosity of readers to sustain the work I present here. If you find what you read valuable and would like it to continue, consider becoming a paid subscriber.
Supplied by Bryan Caplan, performed by ChatGPT, excerpt:
So Cowen isn’t well described as either “positive” or “negative.” A much better description is:
High appreciation + high concern + very low emotional agitation.
He seems to think there is an astonishing amount of wonderful stuff in the world and an astonishing number of things worth worrying about.
That combination is unusual.
Insightful throughout. And have a nice day!
The post A Sentiment Analysis of Cowen, Hanson, Caplan, and Krugman appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Hey Tyler
I consider Stubborn Attachments your most dogmatic and religious book. Pondering on it, here are my Abrahamic readings of it:
Jewish: Ten Commandments, obviously. While the bigger canon of Jewish laws tend to be overly conservative because people will fail following them anyway, the Ten Commandments are the laws the Jews should be stubbornly attached to. It’s easy to to rewrite the two guidelines of Stubborn Attachments as “Thou shalt … “. Another fun Jewish phrasing of the book would be “That which is good for the economy, is good for you. The rest is commentary”
Catholic: I think you yourself mentioned the Mormonic reading of the book. I’d add that the book is subtly a commentary on many philsophical debates, and revoking most of them. Just like the New Testament
Islamic: The absolute and stubbornness, but that is also there in the Jewish Ten Commandments.I bring two more subtle spiritual readings. There is an Islamic concept which says: in paradise, you will see the effect of every good deed you did, be it a direct or a very non-linear effect. It’s like the spiritual-and-butterfly-effect-ish definition of compounding growths magic. The second concept is “Barzakh”, in some theological readings, it’s a realm where both the dead, highly accomplished “living” souls and the unborn souls reside at the same time. I would liken this to your zero-discount rate concept for future generations.
What do you think?
Best
Hasan
The post On *Stubborn Attachments* and religion (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
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For those of you just catching up, Cat and I are having a dialogue about how teams are changing in the era of AI.
Part 1: Where do AI norms and values come from? Where should people start?, by me.
Part 2: How social identity is constructed, and how to defang the threat of identity loss, by Cat.
At the end of Cat’s piece, she ended with a question for me and an observation of her own. She asked,
“What gets us so stuck on believing we can’t have both high performance and good norms?”
And observed:
“It’s hard to get teams to open up, hard to get our companies to see the merit in this kind of practice, and hard to get people to see this as the hard cognitive science of problem-solving instead of soft, squishy feelings.”
All of these, I believe, are related. If leaders think that “treating people well” means “nobody feels bad”, of course they assume it trades off against performance. If people associate learning with soft, squishy feelings instead of an uncomfortable growth process, they probably aren’t really learning.
And because we’re wired to see people where there really are systems, we keep looking in the wrong place for fairness and equity.
This is a weird timeline. I’ll tell you how I think we got here. It starts when the idea of psychological safety upended our mental model about what excellence looks like, just over a decade ago.
Psychological safety entered the tech lexicon in 2015, when Google published the findings of Project Aristotle, their two-year inquiry into engineering team effectiveness. The research showed that high performing teams were differentiated by five internal dynamics: 1) psychological safety, 2) dependability, 3) structure and clarity, 4) meaning, and 5) impact.
You kids won’t remember this, but prior to Project Aristotle (and DORA, which launched a year earlier), our collective idea of excellence in tech looked very different.
Nowadays everyone talks about high functioning teams, but back then, the spotlight was on individual output. Managers and executives really did heap praises on people for firefighting and sleeping under their desks. Brilliant jerks were not only tolerated but cultivated, because of how closely genius and antisocial behavior were twinned in our minds and pop culture.1
Back then, it was almost an article of faith that the rudest and most disruptive people were your top performers and should be catered to.2 But DORA and Project Aristotle began their research from first principles, asking “what leads to the best outcomes?" and crunching the numbers. Year after year, report after report, the evidence compounds: individual performance is critical, but delivery and impact are defined at the level of the team, not the individual.
The academic study of psychological safety, defined as “a shared belief held by members of a team that the team is safe for interpersonal risk-taking,” has always been about achieving excellence. Researchers have long been adamant that psychological safety must be paired with accountability to be effective.
The research itself has a lot of complexity and nuance, most of which seems to have been lost on its journey to mass awareness. The one thing everyone remembers today is psychological safety, which is great. But the popular understanding of its meaning seems to have drifted far away from its origins in excellence, edging ever closer to “I should feel safe at work”, or even “I should never have to feel bad at work.”
I’ve seen people complain about their psychological safety being damaged due to hearing bad news, company layoffs, not getting an expected promotion, organizational reshufflings, their manager answering slack messages after 6 pm, even getting constructive feedback on their work.
But psychological safety isn’t important because it makes us feel safe, it’s important because it enables learning, which leads to higher performance.3 Somewhere along the way, we started putting the feelings ahead of the outcomes — a very 2010s thing to do, in retrospect.
The second time I became a manager, I kept asking my boss how he would know if I was doing a good job or not. His response: “If your team is happy, you’re doing a good job.”
This answer was typical of ZIRP-era management philosophy, when money was easy, growth was free, and headcount seemed infinite. The managers and directors of my generation went all in on things like psychological safety and “bring your whole selves to work”, which was progress, even if in practice this mostly got watered down into “please be nice” and “it’s okay to be openly gay at work now.”
In part, this was in reaction to the generation of managers we came up under, who mostly came in two flavors: the super-IC who didn't really want to be managing, and the command-and-control type who assigned tasks and checked boxes. Neither was big on feelings.
My generation of managers was determined to do the opposite, as I’ve written. And we did. We were coaches, sponsors, and support networks for our direct reports. We made time for people’s feelings and talked about our personal lives. We urged people to take time off, talked about “servant leadership”, and said things like “being a manager is all about people.”
But it’s not. It’s not all about people, it’s about achieving success at business and then, ideally, good outcomes for everyone involved.
As I recently wrote:
“The most effective leaders are the ones who are kind, caring humans and skilled business operators. The second most effective leaders are the ones who are crappy humans but skilled business operators. After that comes everyone else.”
“If your team is happy, you’re doing a good job” is not an answer that stands up to a whiff of scrutiny. If happiness was the goal, I should have just given everyone six months off, tripled their salary, and told them that “moving forward, your job consists of taste-testing fancy ice creams.” That would have made a lot of people very happy.
Or would it?
Aristotle — yes, he who the project was named for — didn’t think so. He distinguished between eudaimonia, the kind of happiness you feel as a result of a full and flourishing life, through action and virtue, and other, lesser types of happiness you feel as a result of chasing wealth, pleasure, fame, etc.
Vacation days and infinite ice cream are the type of happiness Aristotle would have sniffily dismissed as hedonic pleasure; a false joy, he would say, “fit for cattle”.
Granted, Aristotle lived a long time ago and didn’t have access to dopamine machines like video games and social media. But there is oodles of modern research (Gilbert, Kahneman) to back up his point, which is that we are bad at predicting what will make us happy or keep us happy. What we think we want looking forward into the future is almost never what we treasure looking back.
It’s easy to confuse “people’s feelings are important, and we should acknowledge and respect them” with “people’s feelings are a business outcome we should manage to.” The first one, yes; the second, absolutely not.
Making your team happy is not the job. Someone who can’t handle disappointing their direct reports or making them upset will never be an effective leader. Frustrating people and telling them “no” is part of the job, because growth is hard and part of your job is to challenge people. How they feel about this is under their control, not yours.
You know what else doesn’t always feel good? Learning. Learning involves introspection, which is often humbling, and expanding your boundaries, which means doing uncomfortable things.
It’s also deeply vulnerable. Towards the end of Cat’s piece she says,
I’ve seen even highly acrimonious teams start to soften the moment they allow themselves to ask: what did you learn last week? What did we learn together? Is there some way to approach this tough time with a focus on learning? Do we have any shared goals for what that learning will accomplish?
Showing up and not knowing the answers is a hard thing to do in front of our peers and colleagues. Which is exactly why it builds trust.
Furthermore, it’s awfully easy to clog up everyone’s calendars with meetings, conversations, and activities that look like learning, but actually just waste time.
If you ask ten or twenty people to step away from their work and have a discussion, what will it yield? Maybe it will be the most valuable hour of the month, or maybe it will be a total waste of time. Maybe it will become a distraction that derails people, sows confusion, and generates endless, fruitless slack debates.
You can’t tell by looking at the calendar invite. Worse, you can’t and won’t know until it’s over (if then). This makes a lot of leaders very skittish about spending on activities so loosely described as “learning”. For every leader that is overly skeptical of learning and development, there’s a leader who invests too much time, money and effort into learning and development, and gets nothing in return.
Learning pays off slowly. It is rarely a quick fix. Investing in learning is like investing in anything; you aren’t going to get great results if you spray and pray, you’re better off developing a thesis, testing it, investing in it, and measuring to see if you were right or not.4
(Here is where I was going to toss it back, saying “So Cat, why are metrics important?” But Cat complains that she has been writing about that for YEARS, and hey, I get it. Ask me “should I instrument my code?”, I dare you. 🔪🔪🔪 )
So let me try and end on a more interesting question.
People are walking, talking balls of weirdo biases. We are bad at knowing what’s good for us, worse at predicting how we will feel, and terrified of feeling bad about things, even though feelings are transient and can’t actually kill us. We project personality onto shitty products and faces onto grilled cheese sandwiches. We are all animists in a way, because we evolved to perceive individuals and intent in the unlikeliest of places.
Which brings us back to business.
People get cause and effect mixed up all the time. Winning feels good, and if you win at business, then you will feel good, and there will be more salary, raises, promotions, hiring, growth, products to build and operate, harder challenges to attack, all these things people love at work.
But we tend to attribute our joy or misery at work to people rather than structural factors. We think fondly of the manager who gave us a raise “because we deserved it”, rather than thinking fondly of the ones who were good enough at business to put more money in the pot for raises to be given out.
I can’t help feeling like we are holding managers to an impossibly high bar by expecting them to not only do their jobs capably but also make us feel good about ourselves while we’re doing ours.
Is that fair? Fairness matters a lot to us (another weird quirk of the species), yet it’s hard to know how to reason about systems where the outcomes are defined by the collective labor of hundreds or thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of people. We want to put a face on our experience so desperately that we give individuals too much credit and too much blame, and let the system off the hook.5
Cat, when you measure fairness, are you looking at people or systems? What do you actually look at?
As evidence I submit the BOFH, Bastard Operator From Hell, alter ego of operations teams everywhere, who cackled with glee while deleting users’ files and bossing around the PFY (pimply-faced youth) any time anyone had the audacity to ask him for help.
Plenty of less bombastic high performers (and nearly all women) were taken aside and advised on how to take up more space and throw their weight around. Good times.
The effect is strongest in work that’s uncertain, interdependent, or changing, where you need people to surface problems and adapt constantly. Psychological safety has much less effect on performance in work that is routine and stable. Anyone have a job like that?
Unless we’re talking about investing in the stock market, in which case 99/100 economists agree, do NOT try to pick stocks and beat the market, just put your money into index funds. Your thesis will not out-speculate high frequency traders and insider data.
With one exception. I think we can all agree that everything is always the CEO’s fault.

In 1960, a team at the University of Illinois released the first version of their PLATO “computerized instruction system,” a network of what would eventually be thousands of computer terminals connected to large mainframe computers. Users of PLATO could use the system to learn about various topics, with courses on subjects such as chemistry, math, music, and foreign languages.
The first iteration of PLATO used a simple TV screen for a terminal display, but this was at best a stopgap measure. TV screens used cathode ray tubes (CRTs), which used a magnetically deflected beam of electrons to paint an image on a glass screen. This beam redrew the entire screen 30 times a second, which meant that a computer had to feed the CRT screen a constant stream of high-bandwidth video data. This was fine for broadcast TV, since the same signal was being sent to every TV that received it, but on the PLATO system every terminal needed to be sent different data, depending on what the user was doing. Not only would this require high-bandwidth data connections between the mainframes and the PLATO terminals, it would force each terminal to have a large amount of memory storage to hold the video data, which at the time was extremely expensive. CRT-based screens worked well enough for a small system with a few terminals, but it was felt that the technology wouldn’t scale to the thousands or millions of terminals the PLATO designers envisioned. What was needed was a new type of screen, one that had a built-in “memory.” On such a screen, only the things that changed on the screen would need to be redrawn, which would dramatically reduce the bandwidth and data storage such a screen required compared to a CRT.
Donald Bitzer, one of the architects of the PLATO system, considered possible methods that might be used to make such a display. One potential option was gas plasma — running an electric current through a low-pressure gas, which would cause that gas to glow. Scientists had been making low-pressure gases glow using electric current since the 1600s, and the phenomenon had been used in neon signs since the early 20th century. But no one had yet found a way to turn the phenomenon into a computer display, which would require an array of thousands or even millions of independently controlled tiny gas plasma lamps, one for each pixel on the screen. Bitzer decided it was worth trying.
In 1962, Bitzer’s graduate student Robert Willson built a one-cell model of a plasma display screen, the equivalent of a single pixel. It consisted of a “sandwich” of three thin sheets of glass, with wires on either side of a tiny pocket of argon gas contained in a hole in the middle glass sheet. When electric current ran from the wires through the gas, the argon would glow brightly. Willson’s model suggested that a plasma screen might work, but also that there were many problems that needed to be overcome: the brightness of the cell was inconsistent, components burned out quickly, leaks were rampant, and over time the electricity-excited gas would deposit itself on the electrodes, reducing the flow of current. Willson’s design also required each individual cell to have its own resistor to prevent an electric arc forming between the electrodes, which was projected to add significant manufacturing difficulties on a full-sized display: a 500x500 pixel screen would require 250,000 individually attached resistors.
A breakthrough occurred in 1964, when Bitzer’s team had the idea to move the electrodes to the outside of the glass sandwich, which eliminated the need for a separate resistor. When building a test display of the new model, the team made a serendipitous discovery: a small amount of air accidentally introduced into the cell gave the display the sought-after memory effect: the gas would continue to glow even when the voltage at the electrodes was reduced. By 1967, the team had scaled up their single-pixel display to a 16 by 16 array of pixels (weber 2006), but this was still little more than a fragile prototype: leaks and contamination remained common, and the extremely thin sheets of glass (originally used for microscope slides) broke easily.
In 1967 Owens-Illinois, a glass manufacturer, licensed this technology, known as a plasma display, and began working to turn it into a real, practical product. Owens-Illinois eliminated the middle sheet of glass and the individual gas-filled pockets along with it, and simply filled the entire space between the two outer glass sheets with gas. Even though the gas within the panel was continuous, it would only glow at the intersection of charged electrodes, allowing individual pixels to be controlled. In 1968 Owens-Illinois debuted a 128 x 128 pixel plasma display, far sturdier and more reliable than the University of Illinois prototypes, and in 1971 the company shipped the world’s first commercial plasma display panel, a 512 x 512 screen dubbed the “Digivue.” The PLATO system, which would shortly be scaled up to thousands of terminals worldwide, was its first customer.
But the newly released plasma screen wasn’t alone in the market for electronic displays. The plasma screen had originally been conceived as an alternative to CRT screens and the bulky and expensive external memory they required. But memory technology wasn’t standing still either: in the late 1960s, as Illinois researchers were building plasma screen prototypes, researchers at IBM developed DRAM, a type of computer memory that stored data using transistors and capacitors. Computer memory was soon being pulled along by Moore’s Law, getting smaller, faster, and cheaper with every generation, and before long the memory requirement for CRT screens was a minor concern.
Plasma screens did have other advantages, beyond the way their physical properties enabled a kind of “memory.” Unlike a CRT, which required a bulky glass tube, a plasma display could be made extremely thin. And plasma screens could potentially be much more rugged than CRTs, which had fiddly and easily disrupted electron guns.
But plasma screens also had drawbacks: they were very power hungry compared to CRTs, weren’t as bright, and were far more expensive. And while Illinois researchers tested a color plasma screen in the late 1960s, it would be many years before a color plasma screen robust enough to be commercialized was developed.
What’s more, plasma wasn’t the only new display technology that appeared in the early 1970s. During the 1960s, scientists at Westinghouse and RCA had experimented with displays based on liquid crystals: substances that were liquid but displayed organized, repetitive structure like a crystal. Liquid crystal molecules were found to change their orientation when an electric field was applied to them, and if polarized light (light oscillating within a single plane) passed through a liquid crystal, its plane of polarization would rotate. By the late 1960s, researchers had used these phenomena to construct a display. The first liquid crystal display (LCD) screens appeared in calculators and other small electronic devices in the 1970s, and by the 1980s were being used in portable TVs.
Plasma didn’t slow down either. Over the next several decades, plasma display technology steadily improved. Engineers developed better electrodes, reduced power consumption, and invented a method for creating grayscale by rapidly flickering the pixels off and on (the more a pixel was “off,” the darker the pixel). Grayscale, in turn, opened the door for full-color plasma displays, and these began to appear in the late 1970s.
As their capabilities improved, plasma displays began to carve out a small niche in the electronic display market. IBM introduced a line of electronics for banks with plasma displays in 1973, and in the mid-1970s plasma displays began to be used for various military applications thanks to their rugged, low-maintenance designs. In the 1980s, laptops and portable computers with monochrome plasma screens began to appear. By the 1990s, however, LCD technology had advanced to the point where high-quality color screens could be made for laptops, entirely displacing plasma from that market.

As it was forced from the laptop display market, plasma was finding success in a new market: large-screen, high-definition televisions. Up through the 1990s CRT had been the standard technology used to make TVs, but the size of the tube required made it difficult to scale CRTs up to very large screens of 40 inches or more: when Sony introduced a 45-inch CRT TV in 1988, it weighed over 400 pounds. Thinner plasma screens, by contrast, could more easily scale to very large screens. Japanese electronics manufacturer Fujitsu demonstrated a 31-inch plasma TV in 1990, and then a 42-inch plasma in 1995. US display startup Plasmaco debuted a 60-inch plasma screen in 1999, and Samsung displayed an enormous 102-inch plasma screen in 2005.
However, LCD was entering the large-screen TV market at the same time, and by the early 2000s LCD manufacturers were making screens of similar size as plasma screens. Plasma had some advantages over LCD TVs — they could offer richer colors and higher refresh rates — but also some disadvantages. Plasma screens consumed more power, put out more heat, and were less bright than LCD screens. And for a given screen size, an LCD screen could be made much higher resolution than a plasma screen.
But the most important issue was likely manufacturing: it proved harder to achieve high yields and low manufacturing costs with plasma screens than with LCD screens, possibly because manufacturers invested far more in LCD manufacturing than they did plasma.
By the mid-2000s, plasma’s screen quality advantages had either been whittled away or simply gone unnoticed by most consumers: in 2006 reviewers found them roughly equal in quality, and LCD was significantly outselling plasma screens. Plasma and LCD battled over the TV market through the early 2010s, but by 2013 plasma had lost nearly all its market share. By the end of the 2010s, plasma screen manufacturing had essentially ceased, and today the technology is all but dead.
The classic pattern of new technology adoption is something like an S-curve: it starts out serving niche uses for users who need its particular combination of attributes, but as the technology gets more capable and less expensive, it gets adopted more broadly, until it reaches some particular peak. When a technology gets replaced, in turn, it tends to follow this pattern in reverse, getting removed from more and more uses but continuing to be used by users who value its particular combination of attributes. Sometimes this combination allows an “outdated” technology to continue to be used far into the future; vacuum tubes were replaced by the transistor for most uses decades ago, but they’re still manufactured today for use in certain audio equipment. But sometimes this isn’t enough to save a technology; while some folks prefer the look of plasma screens, this preference evidently wasn’t enough to maintain production of it.
Pat Burns is up for re-election. He is a bully, a thug, a racist, a xenophobic piece of dog excrement.
Below this text is an ad I created.
Feel free to share, and hit me up at datruthoc@gmail.com if you’d like a copy to use on your own feeds. This turd needs to be exposed ASAP.
Fight, people!
Fight!
Jeff
As you read this, there appears to be a fairly (and bewilderingly) tight supervisor race for the Fifth District in South County between Katrina Foley, the energetic, always-on-the-move, wonkier-than-wonk incumbent, and Diane Dixon, the propped-up remains of a propped-up remain who, I am increasingly certain, died 56 years ago in Sand Springs, Oklahoma …
And while it all might sound a bit ageist, in this case there’s good reason. Among us are plenty of people in their 70s and 80s (and even 90s) who continue to stand out as wonderful and feisty public servants and deserve to hold positions in government. They are bold, productive, insightful, overflowing with energy and ideas. Hell, Jerry Brown ended his stint at governor at age 548, and bruh was still running marathons, collecting tin cans and hitting up the coolest clubs with Doja Cat.
Dixon, alas, ain’t Governor Moonbean.
Over the last bunch of months, as Dixon v. Foley heated up, the Newport Republican has earned her stripes as a Styrofoam salon head. Which is to say, she gets carted around from event to event, where she (without fail) says as little as possible while nodding and grinning and scratching her right ear as whichever on-duty puppeteer sees fit. She looks confused and overwhelmed and vacant and forced (by Will O’Neill, local GOP kingpin and eternal douche) into a battle she most certainly should not be waging. The scene is simultaneously sad and telling; expired milk desperate to be poured into one last sippy cup.
Dixon’s ads are cruel and often filled with half-truths, and while I suspect she hasn’t even seen them, the spots cannot hide the reality of a candidate vying for a job she can’t possible handle.
The latest development is the most telling. This, from Voice of OC …
•••
All jokes aside, this is serious stuff. Katrina Foley is great at her job, and in her absolute prime. She is George Brett hitting .390. She is Chaka Kahn belting out “Ain’t Nobody” with Rufus. She is Rocky—but the Rocky in “Rocky II,” shortly after Adrian nearly dies, then awakes, then tells her husband to “Win! Win!”
Dixon, alas, is washed. Not a bad person, not an ill-intended figure.
But, sadly, 50 minutes late for the last train.
Father Time, Michael Irvin famously observed, is undefeated.
It’ll happen to us all.

To read this letter, click here:
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On October 7, 2016, in the run-up to the 2016 election, the Washington Post broke the story of the so-called Access Hollywood tape, a video from 2005 in which Donald Trump told television host Billy Bush about his approach to women. “I don’t even wait” to start kissing them, he said. “And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.... Grab ‘em by the p***y. You can do anything.”
On October 7, 2021, the Democratic majority of the Senate Judiciary Committee released a draft report of its investigation into Trump’s attempt to use the Department of Justice to overturn the results of the 2020 election. The report found that Trump repeatedly tried to get the Department of Justice to endorse his false claims that the election was stolen and to overturn its results, singling out nine specific attempts to change the outcome. Trump, the report says, “grossly abused the power of the presidency.”
On October 7, 2026, from the Oval Office, Trump told reporters: “I could have done very bad things to Hillary Clinton. I could have done very, very bad things to Joe Biden. I could have done very bad things to Barack Hussein Obama. I thought it was inappropriate to do so because you have to treat the office of the presidency with respect. Then I found out that they impeached me twice, and I certainly even, to this moment, I have, I can do whatever I want, if I want. They’ve done some very bad things. You just mentioned it. It was just mentioned in the form of a question, what they did, very illegal, what they did, many illegal things, but I view the presidency as a very sacred position.”
“I can do whatever I want, if I want.”
Ten years we’ve been at this.
I’m going to take an early night tonight. Will be back at it tomorrow.
—
Notes:
https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Interim%20Staff%20Report%20FINAL.pdf
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html
Bluesky:
[Continued from yesterday. P.G.] … So, keeping myself warm, to the office, and at noon home to dinner, my pain coming again by breaking no wind nor having any stool. So to Mr. Holliard, and by his direction, he assuring me that it is nothing of the stone, but only my constitution being costive, and that, and cold from without, breeding and keeping the wind, I took some powder that he did give me in white wine, and sat late up, till past eleven at night, with my wife in my chamber till it had done working, which was so weakly that I could hardly tell whether it did work or no. My mayds being at this time in great dirt towards getting of all my house clean, and weary and having a great deal of work to do therein to-morrow and next day, were gone to bed before my wife and I, who also do lie in our room more like beasts than Christians, but that is only in order to having of the house shortly in a cleaner, or rather very clean condition.
Some ease I had so long as this did keep my body loose, and I slept well.
Links for you. Science:
‘Complete devastation’—How NSF gutted its social sciences research
The Science That Has Oil Companies Running Scared
Don’t be fooled—LLMs don’t reason. Ten years after AlphaGo’s match against Go champion Lee Sedol, today’s AI still isn’t tapping into the machinery that made that win possible.
The wrong platform for science
What a homemade air quality monitor taught me about environmental justice in DC
The Dead Sea Is Creating Its Own Extreme Climate As It Dies
Possible plague death at a Siberian lab baffles scientists
Other:
Congressional candidate is raped while repairing her campaign signs
Inside Trump’s Plan to Fence Off a Historic Protest Site. The president’s proposal to enclose a park in Washington could alter how the space has been used for generations.
How Trump 1.0 Paved the Way for the “Cornell Seven” Case
Pete Hegseth: Bully, Bigot and the Biggest Loser Imaginable
How to Destroy a Reputation in Hollywood, as Told in 5 Women’s Lawsuits
A Cynical Reading Of Trump’s Big Hunting And Fishing Access Orders
Trump Mobile’s latest problem: Hackers just released customer information
Identity Crisis: Citizen access to public agencies is a basic public function. Why does government contract out the process of verifying identity to a for-profit monopoly company? (I hate ID.me)
Trump’s Meme Coin Firm Wants You to Buy. Insiders Are Preparing to Sell.
Trump Tirade over Shrinking Rally Crowds Emasculates MAGA
Kavanaugh Stops
Jewish federations are losing my generation — and future ones — over Israel and Netanyahu
‘Has flat buttocks,’ ‘cusses when scared’: Amazon keeps shockingly specific customer profiles. Here’s how to find yours
Credit Crunch
Democratic Senators Demand Answers on That Diamond Ring Trump Got
The Trump Administration is a Cesspit of Corruption. And fighting it should be at the heart of the Democratic agenda
WMATA Proposes Inflation-Based Metro Fare Increase
Kristi Noem was corrupt until the very end of her DHS tenure
Metro proposes fare increases for rail and bus riders
Infuriated CBS staff still can’t get through to Bari Weiss after scandals and ratings collapse
Why is Trump so unpopular? Because he lies about the war. He could bankrupt the GOP the way Herbert Hoover did.
Funding Cuts Aimed at Unauthorized Immigrants Are Hitting Americans, Too
James Talarico for Senate: Texans deserve better than Ken Paxton’s moral rot
Texas city demands $2M for public records on Flock usage
The Bond Market God
Why Republicans are desperate to hold on to Texas
We’d Be Better Off Without Nebraska
Lawyers for Olympian Cleared in Reflecting Pool Case Demand a Watchdog Probe
Google Accused of Illegally Killing a Massive Forest for Its New Data Center Project
Wild Andrew Tate claims include ‘extreme porn,’ bestiality pics with horse and eel as disturbing full allegations revealed
Links for you. Science:
A Plague Upon Siberia
CDC Is Moving Forward With a Previously Shelved Controversial Hepatitis B Vaccine Study
An AI “mind-reading” tool can reconstruct what you’re looking at from a brain scan
The Siberian Plague Scare Reveals That America Is Unprepared
Margaret Hamilton, computing pioneer who led software development for the Apollo program, dies at 90
One of America’s Last Chestnut Groves Is About to Be Destroyed for a Data Center
Herd immunity underlies homologous recombination in stationary phase bacteria
Other:
Why were Victorian elites so effective?
Texas Republicans Might Finally Lose. Will They Learn Anything?
Congress Is Supposed to Be More Powerful Than the Supreme Court. Why Isn’t It?
Here’s what the Democrats’ first bill should be if they win Congress (disagree re the campaign finance part: Congress should define what the illegal acts are and then strip the court of jurisdiction)
The Anti-Tyranny Backlash: These people think we owe them gratitude and votes in exchange for bribes and false promises, while they they govern like they answer to no one. That’s precisely why they’re losing.
The Washington Sun’s aggressive local marketing campaign swings at The Post
Bowser’s Plan for a Massive Spa Along the Anacostia River May Be Dead (good)
Depression, anxiety plague Black women a year after being fired by DOGE
Moldbug
Centrist Democrats are afraid of expanding the Supreme Court
Aramark Settles $4.5M Class-Action Lawsuit Over ‘Junk Fees’ at Capital One Arena
Ha Ha Ha He’s Just Kidding Again
Washington’s Bitter, Partisan Restaurant Divide — With Data
Paying for your neighbors’ utilities? New DC law limits what landlords can charge
The Southwest Waterfront is getting a radical new arts space
How Payment Will Work on the Upcoming Purple Line
University of Arizona suspends six fraternities, pauses activities for almost all others
JD Vance catches heat after his favorite pseudointellectual praises Hitler again
Trump’s Unlikely Strategy to Control History: Footnotes
Democrats call for probe into Kimberly Guilfoyle’s conduct
‘Honey Please’: Kimberly Guilfoyle Pushed Donor to Wire $100,000 to Her Amex Account
Homes Rule: In D.C., Music Has Always Found a Home in Ordinary Houses
The Battle to Pass a Billionaire Tax
The Deficit
The War Against Accumulated Capital
Alabama Makes State Workers Say ‘Gulf of America.’ Colleges Aren’t Spared.
NYC moves to spend nearly $9M of gender-affirming care fund for minors
Disloyalty
Democrats plot a midterms push for MAHA voters
The NFL’s $192 Million Bet on Flag Football Is Paying Off With Teen Girls
This polling result from YouGov showing that Bush the Younger seems to have rehabilitated his image is somewhat disappointing:

That said, at least Democrats seem to remember how awful he was:

To end on a happy note, the first figure has 48% of respondents saying Trump is a failure, with another ten percent saying Trump is below average.

In this episode, a panel of industry experts discuss what’s needed to build a moon base. During a live event at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg Center, leaders Astrolab, Firefly […]
The post What will it take to build a moon base? appeared first on SpaceNews.
With math essentially being delegated to OpenAI, here’s what I predict for economics and the social sciences more generally:
The top tier of research will just become better and it will be normal human-led research where AI is used for scale (e.g. conducting qualitative interviews with relevant populations, running behavioral interventions in the field, analyzing massive text data, etc.)
Field experiments will rise in value and generally making “connections” with firms and being able to run stuff (potentially testing AI pipelines) will be in high demand
Research with administrative data will become even more valuable, but the benefits might be concentrated among some prolific authors who are allowed by the government agencies to use local models to analyze the data at scale. PhD students can probably forget about it
Economic history will have a very exciting boom and there will be an enormous race and big rewards for digitizing archives as a source to both identify new research strategies and document new descriptive facts.
Review and verification systems will become massively improved with AI assistance and it will become standard practice to do a 360 review of the paper + code + data at the *submission* stage.
Research that in principle can already be almost completely outsourced to the AI (download and analyze public data, run simple survey experiments, write theory models) is in for a big shock. This would be very bad from the perspective of researchers who depend on this “bread and butter” research, but I think this type of work will just be outsourced to public agencies who can answer their own questions without the need for “peer-reviewed” research.
All of those make sense to me.
The post Predictions for economics, given AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.



Rays - 001 102 000 - 4 7 1Yankees' season ends in bitter disappointment again as Rays sweep ALDS
Yankees - 001 101 000 - 3 7 0
For the 17th straight year, the Yankees will not be World Series champions, this time falling woefully short . . . as they were swept out of the ALDS in three games by the Rays in a 4-3 loss on Wednesday night . . .
After their offense let them down in Game 1 and their defense joined in to fail them in Game 2, the Yankees' bats were held in check once again in Game 3 . . . resulting in an all-too-familiar feeling in The Bronx. . . .
And so, a year after they bailed out of the ALDS in four games against the AL East champion Blue Jays, the Yankees played their way into another early exit . . .
[T]he Yankees never led against the Rays. They mustered all of five runs across the three games . . .
Trent Grisham, with the tying run on second, chased a pitch well out of the zone to end it. . . .
[Max] Fried . . . was not his sharpest. Twice after the Yankees had tied the game, he gave up home runs to give the Rays the lead back.
The first came on Ryan Vilade's solo shot in the fourth inning, inches past the outstretched glove of a leaping Jones at the short porch, to put the Rays up 2-1.
Then in the sixth, Fried hung a sweeper and by the time Mesa put a swing on it, the left-hander had dropped to his knee because he knew what was coming. Mesa's two-run shot sailed high and far into the right-field seats, giving the Rays a 4-2 lead.
Yankees swept by Rays in ALDS after fan interference overturns Anthony Volpe homer in Game 3 loss
Peter Sblendorio, Daily News
With the Yankees on the brink of elimination, Anthony Volpe appeared to hit a game-tying two-run home run in the sixth inning . . .
But in a season-altering gut punch, an umpire review found that Volpe's clutch, two-out blast against reliever Griffin Jax had some help.
Replays determined a fan's outstretched hands aided the ball over the left-field wall. The initial call of a home run was overturned, resulting in an RBI ground-rule double for Volpe and leaving the Yankees trailing still, 4-3.
That proved to be the final score as the Rays completed a three-game sweep and extended the Yankees' World Series drought to 17 years.
"It's a broken clubhouse," manager Aaron Boone said. . . . "It's the worst."
Tampa Bay tagged Yankees co-ace Max Fried for four runs — all with two outs — over his 5.2 innings. . . .
But the lasting image Wednesday was Volpe's 357-foot screamer caroming off of the fan's hands — and Spencer Jones striking out moments later to strand Volpe at second base. . . .
Fried wasn't at his best Wednesday, permitting an RBI single to Jonathan Aranda in the third inning, a solo homer to No. 9 hitter Ryan Vilade in the fourth, and Mesa's go-ahead blast in the sixth. . . .
With two outs in the eighth, pinch-hitter Giancarlo Stanton struck out against Kevin Kelly with the tying run at first base. And in the ninth, Trent Grisham went down swinging against Rays closer Bryan Baker for the final out, stranding a runner at second.
The Yankees totaled just three runs and 12 hits in the ALDS, batting a collective .130 — their lowest average in a multi-game postseason series ever.
"This is my fourth season. It's four too many times having this taste in my mouth," Volpe said. . . .
This is the third year in a row that an opponent celebrated a playoff series victory at Yankee Stadium, following the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2024 World Series and the Toronto Blue Jays in last year's ALDS.
The 17-year championship drought is tied for the Yankees' longest since they won their first World Series title in 1923.


Fan interference at center of Yankees Game 3 . . .
James O'Connell, Daily News
The fans certainly made their presence felt on Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium.
Just not in the way they had hoped.
Fan interference was at the center of the Yankees' season-ending 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS. . . .
After a few attempts of identifying the correct spectator, NYPD officers escorted him out of the stadium. The fan was greeted with some unfriendly chants on his way out of the ballpark. . . .
The Yankees have had a bit of a run with fans interfering on the field. During Game 4 of the 2024 World Series, two fans essentially tried to rip a ball out of the glove of Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts in foul territory — those two were indefinitely banned from all MLB stadiums.


[A] Yankee fan . . . was escorted out of Yankee Stadium after he stuck his arm out over the ledge of the wall in left field to catch a ball hit by Anthony Volpe in the bottom of the sixth in ALDS Game 3. . . .
Video showed the Yankee fan, who was wearing a dark blue bomber jacket, being walked out of the outfield stands by a uniformed member of the NYPD and what appeared to be several members of Yankee Stadium security.
He was also leaving with another fan, who was wearing a pinstriped Yankees jacket and cap.
In another clip that circulated online after the controversial moment, security staff was seen approaching the fan in his seat almost immediately after the umpire ruled the fan interference call . . .
Yankee fans around them did not appear to have too much of a reaction toward the spectator as he exited with stadium staff.
The Rays got out of the inning with a 4-3 lead, the same score as the final. . . .
(Twitter; Rays fans in front; MFYfans in back)
Fan interference serves as a bitter reminder just how far away Yankees are from magic of dynasty years
Mike Vaccaro, Post
The Yankees lost the game 4-3. The Rays swept them in this ALDS. They were booed off the field in their own stadium. Nuclear winter awaits on the other side of the World Series, and who knows what the sport will look like whenever the labor wonks return it to us. . . .
"The ending is terrible," Aaron Boone said, his voice quiet, his mood chastened, his season over . . . "It's the worst. . . . The worst frickin' feeling in the world."
[T]he Yankees haven't been champions for a long time. It is now 17 seasons in a row without a title, so Hal Steinbrenner now has a drought to match the 17 empty seasons his old man oversaw between 1979 and 1995. Only the Yankees of 1903-22 — when they were mostly the JV team in town to John McGraw's Giants and were known as "Highlanders" for half of it — have known a longer championship Sahara. . . .
[W]hen the Rays recorded the 27th out Wednesday night, and began their celebration on the field before retreating to the visiting clubhouse where the champagne was waiting on ice, it continued what has become one of the more troubling — borderline inexplicable — patterns imaginable.
The Yankees watched the Rays dance on Bronx turf Wednesday. The Blue Jays did the same thing last year, the Dodgers in 2024, the Astros in 2022. The Red Sox, of all teams, have done it twice, after the catastrophic collapse in 2004 and again in 2018 . . . This has become as baleful an annual tradition as tax day.
sad bench
Trent Grisham can't provide leadoff spark for Yankees with uncertainty looming
Dan Martin, Post
Trent Grisham hit leadoff with the idea of getting more base runners on in front of Ben Rice.
Instead, Yankees season ended with Grisham striking out for the third time of the night — with Rice in the on-deck circle — in a 4-3 loss to the Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS.
With the Yankees fighting for survival, Grisham got the call to hit leadoff — despite being the worst leadoff hitter in the game this season. . . . [A]mong the 16 players with at least 350 plate appearances at the top of the lineup in the majors, Grisham had the lowest batting average (.199) and OPS (.680). . . .
He popped out in the first, struck out looking in the third, lined out to left in the fifth and whiffed looking again in the seventh, this time getting booed by the Stadium crowd.
And in the bottom of the ninth, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. representing the tying run at second and two outs, Grisham was no match for lefty closer Bryan Baker.

Max Fried falters for Yankees and leaves Carlos Rondon a non-factor in ALDS
Dan Martin, Post
Just like the rest of the Yankees in this series, Max Fried wasn't good enough. . . .
[The lefty] allowed runs in three of his last four innings in Wednesday's season-ending 4-3 loss to the Rays . . .
The Yankees said prior to the game that there wasn't really a debate about whether to go with Fried or fellow southpaw Carlos Rodón [perhaps the rotation's best pitcher down the stretch outside of Cam Schlittler] . . .
[T]he Yankees head into the offseason with Rodón not having been a factor in the postseason.
The real issue the Yankees had against their AL East rivals, whom they couldn't catch in the division and proved to be no match for in the playoffs, was their lineup.
Fried, just like Gerrit Cole and Schlittler. . . was forced to be nearly perfect.
And he wasn't. . .
It was not the ace-like outing the Yankees were looking for . . .
Fried has now had very mixed results in four playoff starts with the Yankees . . . struggling badly in the ALDS in Toronto last season before allowing four runs in less than six innings Wednesday.
This Yankees ending was sad and predictable — don't expect anything to change
Joel Sherman, Post
Welcome back, Red Zone Yankees.
You are Groundhog Day reliable.
Flip the calendar to October and here you are — and there you go. Annual. Dependable. Disposable.
I dubbed you the Red Zone Yankees last year after you . . . lost to the AL East champ Blue Jays in the division series. Just another year of journeying close enough to see the championship end zone — but unable to get in. . . .
[It's] another case of déjà Boone — running into a superior team at this time of year and crumbling before them. We have seen this movie. Too often.
This year the Yankees did not even bother to win a division series game — heck, they never had a lead in 27 innings in getting swept three games to none. . . . [T]he Yankees had to watch yet another team celebrate in front of them and their fans in The Bronx. . . .
[Yankee Stadium] is [now] a place for various foes to spill champagne. . . .
[T]he team that lived by the long ball was eliminated by it. Ryan Vilade . . . went opposite field just over the fence for a solo homer in the fourth inning, a 340-foot lob that just eluded the leap of 6-foot-7 Spencer Jones and that Statcast had as a homer in just one of 30 parks — this one.
Trying to maintain a 2-2 tie in the sixth, Fried gave up a no-doubt, two-run blast to Victor Mesa Jr. . . .
This is a 17th straight year now without a championship. A Boone team has made the playoffs eight times and been eliminated by an opponent with a better regular-season record all eight. This will lead to another rite of fall — calls for Boone's job and that of GM Brian Cashman.
No one should expect changes. . . . The reality is that they keep fielding teams short of the ingredient to get all the way through these playoffs. They are never playing their best at this time of year. Never playing loose, smart and well.
The Rays went into first place for good on June 27. The Yankees were put into position to play catch-up and were just not good enough. Not good enough for 162 games. And not for three days in October.
They lost Game 1 because they did not hit enough and Austin Wells made a baserunning gaffe. They lost Game 2 because they did not hit enough and played defense like they were wearing gloves on the wrong hand. They lost Game 3 because they did not hit enough and were let down by the strength of the team, a starter, Fried.
Yes, they were missing Aaron Judge. Yes, Giancarlo Stanton was limited to two pinch-hit at-bats and struck out in both . . .
There are always excuses. That is familiar too. This is what happens . . . Something happens to them when they get tantalizingly close to baseball heaven. When the calendar flips to October. When the best is needed.
But there was no best. They scored five runs in three games — or one more run than they had errors in Game 2. They could not get the big hit, make the big pitch, record the routine out when it was necessary.
So another year goes by in which they fall short again. Not good enough.

(Twitter)

(Twitter)
Once again, the Yankees’ season ends with a division rival partying at their place
Gary Phillips, Daily News
As their division rivals popped bottles inside Yankee Stadium’s visiting clubhouse, the home side filled with frustration and sorrow."It’s just heartbreaking," Jazz Chisholm Jr. said."We didn’t do our jobs, didn’t finish the goal," Aaron Judge chimed in."They do a little of everything," Max Fried added. "They put the ball in play, they get a bunch of hits, they run the bases well, play good defense, and they pitched. So they played a pretty complete series, and they beat us."All of those comments were delivered a year ago, when the Blue Jays defeated the Yankees in a four-game ALDS, celebrated at midfield, and boogied in the Bronx. And yet, they are just as fitting now. . . .The only major differences? It was the Rays who raged this time, and they were able pull off a three-game sweep."I don't like that," said Judge, who didn't play this postseason due to a calf strain. "I don't like other teams celebrating in our place."Tampa already knew how to host a boozy bash at Yankee Stadium, as they also commemorated a division crown there a few weeks ago. . . .The Yankees and their aging superstars — namely Judge, Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton — will watch what is left of the playoffs from home while getting another early start on the offseason. . . . [A] looming work stoppage hovers over the sport . . . A potential lockout could cut into another season for Judge, who is 34 and also missed 99 days with a fractured rib this year, and Cole, who is 36 and made 22 starts following Tommy John surgery. . . .While Cashman’s deal is up after the season, it would be shocking to see anyone else in the general manager’s chair. And even after another sloppy postseason, Boone could remain as manager. He has survived disappointments like this throughout his ringless tenure . . .For now, the Yankees can only lament another premature end. They can only reflect on why, time and time again, a roster that does enough from March through September falls short in October, or why their years-long reputation for poor play under bright lights persists.If those issues do not get corrected, there will be more wallowing over early exits, and more Yankee Stadium parties that the home team isn’t invited to.

Anthony Volpe sent Yankee Stadium into a frenzy for a few moments after what seemed like a two-run home run to tie the score . . .Volpe rounded the bases as fans threw drinks onto the field in celebration. But MLB’s video replay center determined a fan interfered with the batted ball by sticking his hands over the wall, hauling it into the stands above the outstretched glove of Rays left fielder Víctor Mesa Jr.The home run was overturned and ruled an RBI double, which meant that instead of a 4-4 score, New York trailed, 4-3. . . . Rays reliever Griffin Jax then struck out Spencer Jones . . . to end the inning. The 4-3 score held and the Rays took Game 3 to eliminate the Yankees and advance to the American League Championship Series. . . .Stadium security quickly reached the fan and whisked him out of the section, taking him up the steps and out through an exit on River Avenue.Even after the fan was taken away, other fans in the section chanted expletives in the direction of the people he was seated near.After the play, and as Volpe rounded the bases, fans threw trash onto the field in the direction of Mesa. Beer cans, cups and assorted debris were hurled from the stands and into left field. The fan who interfered with the play held the ball up high, raising it in his right hand in triumph while another fan wrapped him in a hug.
Junior Caminero brutally trolls with broom and 'da Yankees lose' chant after ALDS sweep
Christian Arnold, Post
Junior Caminero had no problem rubbing salt in the Yankees' wound after the Rays swept the Bronx Bombers out of the playoffs.
The Rays third baseman taunted Yankees fans after Bryan Baker struck out Trent Grisham for the game's final out and secured the ALDS sweep at Yankee Stadium.
The TNT broadcast captured Caminero mimicking a sweeping broom while looking into the stands before going over to join his teammates in celebration. . . .
MLB posted a video on social media of Caminero doing an impression of David Ortiz by saying his signature "da Yankees lose!"
Caminero did it while he was on the field, shouting the phrase and putting his hand against his head to mimic sleep.
He shouted it again while speaking with Spanish-speaking media inside the Rays clubhouse and another time when TNT's Lauren Shehadi interviewed him.
"The best! The best! Sweep!" Caminero shouted when Shehadi asked him about celebrating a series victory at Yankee Stadium. "Da Yankees lose!"
Aaron Judge was 'hating every single moment' of watching Yankees' ALDS loss from bench
Dan Martin, Post
Aaron Judge has been here too many times before: watching another team celebrate in front of him at Yankee Stadium.
"Just hating every single moment of it,'' Judge said of his thoughts when he was sitting in the dugout after the Rays beat the Yankees 4-3 to complete a three-game sweep of the ALDS. . . .
Judge was forced to miss such a sizable chunk of the regular season due to a fractured rib that cost him over three months and then the strained calf that prevented him from playing in the postseason. . . .
Asked how close he was to being activated for the ALDS after missing the wild-card series . . . He said he was "feeling great" . . .
Judge was asked what the team needs to do to get better and avoid being in this situation again, as they have every year of his career.
"We're the Yankees,'' Judge said. . . . "They give us a winning team every year."
Some Back Pages I Missed






They went home!
2. How the math breakthroughs might matter.
3. Short proof of quasi-Riemann.
4. App for finding art exhibitions.
5. Podcast on African economic growth.
6. New and very good book: The Madrid Model: How Freedom and Openness Created an Economic Powerhouse, by Diego Sánchez de la Cruz.
7. This is only the beginning.
8. Democracy thwarted, pufffin to be featured on banknotes.
The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

This is an update to my post from Tuesday about the “existential risk” panic. A good friend of mine reached out to me and said, in so many words, yes, all that techno-babble is weird. But that doesn’t mean these risks aren’t real. And as I tried to make clear in my piece, I agree with that, at least to the extent that if Group A isn’t made up of reliable narrators, I’m not clear who the reliable narrators are. He pointed me to this recent report put out by the Rand Corporation, which is kind of the original think tank and has always been closely tied to the U.S. government and for lack of a better word the U.S. military-intelligence-industrial complex. It’s an interesting report. Or at least I found some interesting and I think sensible prescriptions in it once I got through the first half or two-thirds of it, which contained very Randian decision trees, definitions and a lot of what seemed like assumptions about existential risk and coexistence with AI that I didn’t understand. It eventually sets out a sensible if hard-to-execute approach which generally amounts to a safety-first regime of governing AI (make sure new things don’t endanger us before we build them or make them widely available) and, critically, open the decision-making up to public institutions with public accountability.
This is sensible and obvious. And it’s so obvious and so necessary that it’s a little disturbing that it’s even up for debate. We don’t let munitions makers just fiddle around and experiment with no oversight or limits on who they sell things to. It was obvious from the git-go when we were developing nuclear weapons and nuclear power that we wouldn’t leave that stuff to just wildcatters or Zuckerberg-type nerds with no limits on or controls over what they were doing. To make this a little more concrete, it’s been treated as obvious from the beginning of the internet that certain kinds of cryptography count as munitions and the state is in charge of who you can give them to. I know from conversations I’ve had with people high up in the AI industry that a significant number of them say, we’re making decisions we shouldn’t be making. The public needs to be making these decisions or at least have a lot more visibility into them.
What I’m describing here is at a very high level of generality and leaves most of the key questions and decisions unsettled. But it’s at least the right framework.
But when I looked at the in-text citations and then at the footnotes to the study, I saw that they were to papers and studies authored, overwhelmingly, by the top-line weirdos I discussed in that post on Tuesday — Bostrom, MacAskill, Yudkowsky, Ord — as well as the cluster of institutes and centers which have grown up around their thinking and in their orbit. There’s a real garbage-in, garbage-out problem here. Or to put it slightly differently, the problem for me, as a reasonably intelligent person who is trying to understand and evaluate this as best I can with a view toward public accountability and the well-being of society, is a lack of reliable narrators.
I’ve seen too much about what these folks’ values are (highly questionable in ethical terms), and how they think (sloppy and even juvenile, a kind of scientistic wish- and doom-casting) to take their word for really anything. But I don’t know who the reliable narrators are. And that leaves my analysis, any guidance I can provide to myself or to others, very incomplete and inadequate.
To come at this slightly differently, places like Rand exist in the U.S. state-planning, national security space to look at the sciences, geo-politics, military technology, take the best info, chop it up and organize it so policy makers can make informed decisions. If you know the history of the last 80 years, the results of that process haven’t always been great. But that’s the idea. And reading this I experience a kind of needle-scratch moment where I suddenly realize, wait, you’re operating on the basis of what those dudes think and those are the baseline assumptions for decision-making? WTF?
What does seem clear to me is what I said in that earlier post and what a decent number of those issuing the warnings agree on: that we have a rapidly advancing technology that is already having a lot of deleterious effects on society and at a minimum could cause severe harms in the wrong hands and it’s being developed, controlled and deployed by a stereotypically start-up-y, move-fast-and-break-things kind of culture and mentality. And that alone is enough to tell us we’ve got a major problem and enough to act on without answering the big cosmic and totalizing questions.
If you ever spend time on YouTube, I hope you’ll take a moment to subscribe to our YouTube page, which you can find right here. We have a couple great podcasts with video versions as well as various conversations and interviews we’re publishing. But even if this isn’t for you, simply clicking the subscribe button on our page helps more new people find our videos, find out about what we do at TPM and potentially become new TPM members. That simple button click helps us a lot. If you could take 30 seconds right now, go to this link, and hit subscribe I would be so appreciative.
This is a cool car. It doesn’t look like anything else and it looks like it’s been pulled a few years from the future. I don’t know about this whole trend where cars don’t have rear windows though. I get it that you just use the camera but my old habits says I want to see out the back sometimes.
But the only reason I wouldn’t buy this thing is that turd of a new logo Jaguar went with. I could not abide driving around in something with this typographic calamity.
France: 5 year CDS
Suddenly, financial markets are treating France as the economic sick man of the Western world. Yes, interest rates have been surging everywhere. But the spike in interest rates on French government bonds over the past month has been especially large:
The rise in interest rates on French government bonds is largely driven by heightened perceptions of the risk that France could default on its national debt. The chart at the top of this post shows the price of credit default swaps on French government debt — that is, insurance against default by the French government. While still far below the CDS prices of the Club Med countries during the euro crisis of the early 2010s, the sudden rise of the current CDS price on French government bonds is very worrying.
Simultaneously, and not altogether coincidentally, France is being swept by large-scale, occasionally violent student demonstrations. Furthermore, Marine Le Pen, leader of the hard-right, Putin-friendly and EU-skeptic National Rally party — formerly known as the National Front — is leading in the polls to win the 2027 presidential election.
OK, before I go on, I need to talk about one big problem that affects how foreign observers discuss France: ideologically motivated reasoning.
If, like me, you closely followed the euro crisis 15 years ago, you know that financial media — certainly English-language financial media — had, and to some extent still have, a strong anti-French animus. Readers were constantly bombarded with claims that France was going to be the next domino to fall and that the fallout would be worse than Greece. Yet the data never backed those assertions. Instead, it was obvious that many commentators implicitly wanted France to fail because its high taxes and generous welfare state offended their conservative sensibilities.
Conversely, however, U.S. progressives like me are tempted to push back against this conservative bias by underplaying France’s problems, by noting, for example, that even now French interest rates are slightly lower than U.S. rates — but the important point is that French rates have risen compared with the rest of Europe, and are now above rates in Italy.
So I’m going to try to be objective here and acknowledge that France’s current situation is really worrisome. In particular, it’s not just a matter for France alone. France’s membership in the euro area creates the possibility of an explosive debt crisis — and such a crisis could be destructive to European unity.
What is France’s problem? France is on a fiscally unsustainable path. Debt is already very high as a percentage of GDP, and the French government is adding to that debt by running large budget deficits even though there is no emergency like a war, a severe recession, or a pandemic to justify such deficits. Furthermore, France has an aging population, which means that pension costs will, other things equal, grow much faster than revenue.
Now, everything I just said about France’s fiscal situation is true for other major advanced economies too, the United States very much included. But France does stand out, even among fiscally troubled nations, in one main way: its persistent inability to get realistic about retirement.
The official French retirement age — the age at which workers can collect full benefits — was only 62 in 2023. By comparison, the retirement age in Denmark, which is often held up by U.S. progressives as a model of a nation with a strong safety net, was 67 (which is also the age in the U.S.). The average actual age of retirement, which is always lower than the statutory age because some people choose to accept reduced benefits, was lower in France than anywhere else in Western Europe:
Macron’s center-right government was on track to gradually raise the retirement age to 64, still low by the standards of other advanced nations. But due to opposition by the extreme right and the extreme left parties in France, this rise has been frozen until after next year’s election. As a result, the retirement age is currently stalled at 62 years and 9 months.
You don’t have to be a conservative to see France’s early retirement as unsustainable, especially given that French life expectancy at age 65 is about 87 years of age, 2 years longer than in the US. Thus the fiscal pressure caused largely by France’s very generous government pension plan has led to cutbacks in other spending, notably on education. France is effectively handing over large subsidies to older French at the expense of everyone else. Mass national student demonstrations should come as no surprise.
The underlying problem, of course, is politics. Le Pen has pledged to roll the retirement age back to 62. This would be extremely expensive and is symptomatic of a general unwillingness on the part of France’s rising right to face reality. Again, this is hardly unique to France — think of all the false promises and claims Donald Trump has made. But for now, at least, financial markets believe that fantasy economics is an even bigger problem for France than for the rest of us.
And France’s reliance on the euro means that it’s all too easy to see how this loss of confidence could turn into an ugly crisis.
Before I describe how that might happen, another warning about perspective. While that surge in CDS spreads is alarming, the implied probability of French default over the next 5 years is still only 1.2 percent – which I think is too low.
But if it comes to that, we know how a French crisis will develop. We saw this movie in 2009-2012, first in Greece, then in Portugal, Spain and Italy. First, investors stop buying a euro-area nation’s bonds, raising the specter that the government will be forced into default because it simply doesn’t have the cash to pay interest and principal on its debt. Fear of default then leads to even more capital flight, which increases fears of default and the interest rate, and the vicious circle deepens.
This can’t happen to the U.S.: it can’t run out of dollars because we print them. But France can’t print euros.
The 2010s euro crisis ended when Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, said three words — “whatever it takes’. Markets took this as a signal that the ECB would, if necessary, lend enough money to troubled debtors to avoid default.
But it’s questionable whether the ECB could or would similarly rescue France. For one thing, in 2012 southern European nations were engaged in massive spending cuts. These cuts were wildly excessive from an economic point of view, but they did mean that these nations could in effect claim that they deserved to be rescued. France, by contrast, is moving even further from fiscal responsibility — which means that there would be huge political opposition from creditor nations, especially Germany, to a French bailout. And what would the countries that underwent painful austerity measures during the euro-crisis also say about the fairness of a French bailout?
And if France does need to be bailed out, it would be extremely expensive. As the second largest economy in the euro zone, France may have crossed the line from too big to fail to too big to save. In short, it’s all too easy to describe a really ugly scenario for a French crisis that would be extremely divisive within Europe.
Right now, financial markets are behaving as if the risk of such a scenario is real but small. Maybe the French center will stage a dramatic political comeback; maybe Le Pen in office will, like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, be far milder and more realistic than feared, or maybe, like Trump, she will govern so badly that she quickly loses her political capital; maybe the ECB will, despite everything, be there if France needs it.
But I wish being optimistic about France didn’t require so much hope that maybe things will go right.
MUSICAL CODA
I've always been kind of into computers since I was young. And then when film started to move from analog film to digital, I became more interested in that aspect of it. And the visual effects workflow for many years has included machine learning.
So I can write like pretty shitty Python scripts and stuff like that because with convolutional neural networks, which were the sort of precursors to what the transformer can do, which is just much more computation simultaneously, you would do things like look at what's called a tensor, which is just the numerical translation of a visual image in numbers — like the batch number, the frame number, the red, green, and blue values of each pixel in each frame.
And a tensor, you use a convolutional neural network to identify patterns in that that would reveal what's called edge detection or feature extraction, which is just identifying patterns enough to know like this is where the window ledge is, so we can more easily take the green screen image out and replace it with something.
— Ben Affleck, Pythonista
Tags: machine-learning, python
This essay was written with Seva Gunitsky, and originally appeared in Foreign Affairs.
Two weeks after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in March 2022, the Russian TV Channel One editor Marina Ovsyannikova burst onto the set of the evening newscast. She held up a hand-drawn sign behind the anchor’s head that read: “Stop the war. Don’t believe propaganda. They’re lying to you!” She shouted, “No to war!” until she was dragged away.
No one has protested the war on Russian television since then, partly as a result of tighter security and a general climate of fear. But in October 2024, Margarita Simonyan, one of Russia’s chief propagandists, gave another explanation. A growing number of the RT network’s anchors, she explained to an interviewer, are not real. “That face doesn’t exist. We generated the voice and everything else.” They were, she meant, produced by artificial intelligence. In a follow-up interview with the newspaper Vedomosti, she spelled out the logic: “These anchors don’t need a salary or insurance,” she said. “They won’t get arrested, and the police won’t search their homes. It’s all wonderful and terrifying at the same time.”
This is AI’s promise to every autocratic ruler: the ability to maintain control without delegating tasks to unreliable humans. It is an extremely attractive prospect. No matter how powerful, dictators have always needed subordinates—censors, propagandists, security guards, police officers, intelligence analysts, and local bureaucrats—to carry out their orders. But subordinates always pose a potential threat. They could shirk, steal, lie, leak, or conspire against their boss. As a result, one of the oldest dilemmas facing autocrats is how to empower agents to carry out orders without also enabling them to turn against their leader. Autocrats have usually managed the tradeoff by filling key positions with mediocrities whose incapacity is, as the political theorist Hannah Arendt put it, “the best guarantee of their loyalty.” But this inevitably makes it harder for dictatorships to govern and survive crises.
AI appears to offer autocrats two ways to resolve this long-standing dilemma. First, it means they can now easily monitor and discipline their followers in real time. A change in a local official’s spending habits or meeting schedules can be flagged automatically by an AI system, without any need for self-interested informants. Second, AI can eliminate underlings altogether. By automating tasks that once required human discretion, rulers can replace unreliable intermediaries with faithful algorithms that cannot be bribed or manipulated. Officials in autocratic regimes have said as much. AI “can definitely replace half of officials,” Russia’s Digital Development Minister, Maksut Shadaev, told a Moscow data forum in April 2025, adding, “maybe slightly more.”
Yet these promises of a self-running state are illusory, because AI is never truly autonomous. Systems have to be built and maintained by a cadre of engineers and data scientists whose expertise political leaders cannot evaluate. The ruler who turns to AI to reduce a dependence on unreliable humans may end up relying, more blindly than before, on the few AI specialists who keep the system running. And this new digital Praetorian Guard may have the same weaknesses as the old, which makes it a threat to the ruler.
China is in the lead when it comes to developing AI systems that can monitor or replace subordinates. Smart city programs in Beijing, Shanghai, and other urban centers use AI to track performance and centralize oversight of local officials who once operated in comfortable obscurity, subjecting them to an algorithmic performance review. China also developed a “Zero Trust AI system,” which it deployed across roughly 30 counties and cities over the past decade. This system cross-referenced more than 150 government databases to catch embezzlement and nepotism by local officials. It worked a little too well, flagging 8,700 officials before local governments, under pressure from the bureaucrats it was monitoring, began rolling it back. But Beijing has not gotten rid of its new e-government portals, which use automated systems for issuing documents and permits, reducing face-to-face interactions that bred petty corruption or favoritism. The Chinese Communist Party, meanwhile, has plowed ahead with researching what it calls “thought management,” or how to use AI to create microtargeted propaganda. China’s army of Internet commentators, once composed of paid humans, is already being replaced by bots.
Russia has been pursuing the same goals with a similar fervor. Moscow’s citywide facial recognition system, deployed across 200,000 cameras, was used to identify and apprehend protesters during the 2021 antigovernment demonstrations. The central government has started using automated data collection and aggregation to bypass regional officials who could taint the data or use it to promote their own interests. In 2023, Russia’s Internet regulator launched Oculus, an AI system that scans hundreds of thousands of images per day for prohibited content, including political content—orders of magnitude beyond what human censors could process. The Russian security service’s Meliorator tool has been used to create over a thousand profiles of fictitious Americans, primarily on X (formerly Twitter), to spread Kremlin narratives at a fraction of the cost of human troll farms.
Other autocracies are following in Beijing’s and Moscow’s footsteps. In April 2025, the United Arab Emirates created a Regulatory Intelligence Office that uses AI to draft and amend federal laws, work once done by legislative staff. A year later, UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum announced that autonomous AI agents would take over half of the federal government’s operations within two years and that “the performance of ministers, directors general, and entities will be assessed based on their ability to adopt this transformation.”
These innovations may reduce the number of bureaucrats autocrats need. But they cannot actually create what dictators want most: a self-running state. Even AI-generated television anchors need people to build and maintain them, and censorship systems need people to retrain them as the vocabulary of dissent shifts. Behind every AI model, there is a small group of engineers and data scientists doing essential maintenance, and their work is so technical that rulers cannot understand it.
This dependence thus becomes another form of power. The engineers who maintain an autocrat’s surveillance apparatus, for example, can shape what the ruler sees. They decide what information is important enough to pass along and in what form to present it. They determine which threats get flagged, and they can adjust the algorithms that select what content gets suppressed and who gets arrested. And they can do this without anyone in the palace noticing. Autocrats who turn to AI to escape a dependence on unreliable subordinates have only transferred their vulnerabilities onto a new group of officials.
In fact, this new Praetorian Guard could be more dangerous than previous elites. That is in part thanks to the opacity of AI technology but also because this clique is much smaller. Roman emperors typically had tens of thousands of people serving in the Praetorian Guard; modern autocrats rely on standing armies. But with AI, autocrats will need only a small clique of engineers to build and maintain large-scale AI systems. This might benefit rulers since they will have fewer people to watch, yet it also concentrates points of failure, since a devastating disruption requires only a handful of engineers and makes it easier for members to scheme against the leader. The new guard’s members may also be indispensable. A dictator can replace generals without destroying the army. But running complex machine-learning systems requires such a specialized set of skills that engineers can be difficult to replace without disruptions, giving these actors great leverage.
The importance of tech workers to autocracies has already become apparent. When IT specialists began to flee Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, for example, the Kremlin responded not with threats but with inducements, offering tech workers deferments from conscription. It exempted their firms from taxes and subsidized their mortgages. When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the mobilization of 300,000 men seven months later, IT workers were granted full-on waivers. This might seem like overkill, given that an AI system needs only a few engineers to run it. But a regime cannot know in advance which engineers it will need, and it cannot train replacements quickly, so it has to hold on to the entire talent pool from which these few are selected.
These measures did not stem the outflow of roughly 100,000 specialists—about a tenth of Russia’s tech workforce—over the course of 2022. But Moscow stuck to bribery, because expertise is extremely difficult to conscript at gunpoint and because conscripted experts might be less likely to do as instructed. Even so, money and privilege cannot guarantee that these elites will stay loyal. Autocrats should recall the lesson of the original Praetorian Guard: for a time, it provided Roman emperors with protection and security. But then the praetorians discovered their own indispensability, and by the second century, they were auctioning off the empire to the highest bidder. This new set of elites can do the same. In June 2023, when the column of Yevgeny Prigozhin‘s Wagner paramilitary company moved up the highway toward Moscow, Putin depended on his security services to tell him what was happening. Future rulers in Putin’s position will receive such warnings through machines: intercepted communications sorted by software, camera feeds filtered through recognition systems, regional reports compiled into dashboards. The engineers who run those systems could strike a deal with an upstart challenger and then drag their feet. They could delay the data, let alerts arrive a few hours late, degrade feeds at inconvenient moments, or make a recognition system stop functioning. In that scenario, the ruler would be operating blind. The Praetorian Guard did not need to kill Emperor Nero to replace him. It simply had to abandon him for a rival.
These programmers are unlikely to seize power for themselves, because they are unlikely to carry what coup leaders ultimately require: guns. But there is already precedent for engineers using their power to shape leadership challenges. In 1991, when the Soviet army attempted to seize control from Mikhail Gorbachev, a handful of programmers at the Relcom network kept information flowing abroad and relayed Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s decrees to audiences inside the country and abroad. The plotters could not stop the news of Yeltsin’s defiance from spreading, and the coup collapsed within three days.
AI will not let autocrats dismiss all their enforcers. Someone still has to make arrests and run the prisons, and autocrats can buy loyalty by offering supporters state jobs. But it will let authoritarians downsize, and the number of officials ultimately matters less than how the ruler oversees them. Keeping track of scheming or incompetent subordinates has always been the autocrat’s chief burden. AI could lighten it, letting rulers watch their officials more closely without paying as much active attention.
In the near term, then, AI may greatly benefit autocracies. Despite the many obstacles to deployment, the technology is already bringing autocratic regimes the upsides of cheaper surveillance, smarter censorship, and fewer human subordinates to fear and distrust. But for autocratic rulers, the temptations of artificial intelligence may re-create the same trap they are seeking to escape. The more a regime depends on AI, the more it depends on the people who keep AI running. And those people, like every other praetorian class in history, will quickly discover what their indispensability is worth.
Semmelweis University announces the first 3-pair kidney exchange in Hungary. (HT: Péter Biró ).
For the first time in Hungary, Semmelweisen performed triple living donor kidney transplants within the framework of a cross-donation program
Wednesday, 7 October 2026 Posted by: Eszter Csatári-Földváry
"The three kidney transplant patients who received a new organ at the same time two weeks ago as part of the so-called living donor kidney exchange program at Semmelweis University are doing well. The extraordinary medical feat is the result of six hours of coordinated work by thirty health care professionals. For the first time in Hungary, triple living donor cross-donation was carried out, when the immunological or blood group incompatibility between patients and donors was bridged by the medical team by swapping the donated organs between three pairs who were strangers to each other.
...
"Until the summer of 2025, organ exchange was only possible between two couples, the first such intervention was performed at the beginning of this year at the Clinical Center in Pécs. However, with a legislative amendment last summer, several couples can participate in the – otherwise anonymous – organ exchange, which significantly increases the likelihood of optimal pairings and thus the chance of successful kidney transplants, added Dr. Attila Szijártó. He emphasized: As the number of donor organs from the dead is limited, the importance of living donation is increasing, as it can reduce the current average waiting time of 3.5 years. "
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Earlier:

From Lenape land to sprawling metropolis, this detailed timelapse animation captures the making of Manhattan
- by Aeon Video

Sixteenth-century Venice wanted to expel its Jews but couldn’t do without them. Its compromise was the world’s first ghetto
- by Alexander Lee
From Samuel Hughes, in Works in Progress:
The elites of Victorian Britain operated differently. Their schools and universities were not terribly academic and had very little STEM. As adults, they got up late, drank a lot, and spent a remarkable share of their waking hours partying. They loved feasting, sports, holidays, dancing, and dressing up. Contrary to their stodgy reputation, they were probably a lot of fun.
Here is some further detail:
Most socially elite Victorian boys began formal education at the age of seven or eight, spending about five years in a ‘preparatory school’ before passing on to a ‘public school’ (which, to the enduring confusion of international observers, is a kind of elite private school). There was a hierarchy of public schools, with the nine ‘Clarendon schools’ at the top, and just one, Eton College, clearly at the apex. About 30 percent of nineteenth-century cabinet ministers and 40 percent of prime ministers were Old Etonians.
Most students at both preparatory and public schools were boarders, meaning that elite Victorians were generally sent away from home by the age of eight and spent their childhoods more with peers than with family. In this respect they were distinctive even in their own time: elite families in continental Europe and the United States were far more likely to keep their children at home and educate them at small local private schools. It is plausible that this contributed to the lack of subnational loyalties in the British elite, in contrast to the distinct elites of, for example, the Southern United States, Catalonia in Spain, or Hungary in the Austrian Empire.
Nor did the Victorians wake up early in the morning. Recommended, there is much more at the link, though the answer to the question remains somewhat of a mystery to me.
The post How and why did the Victorians succeed? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
1. Begoña Gómez Urzaiz, The Abandoners: On Mothers and Monsters. A wonderful book about mothers who abandon their children, and properly unsentimental. You will never think about Muriel Spark the same way again. Vashti Bunyan gets a section too. Recommended.
2. Evan Gershkovich, This Cursed Beautiful Land: A Russian-American Story. Yes he is the WSJ reporter who was arrested by the secret service in Putin’s Russia and held for eighteen months before being traded back home. He starts off naive, but does not finish that way. A compelling read, with good background information on what it is like to live in Russia in recent times, namely early years of the war with Ukraine. In prison it seems he was treated better than most. Excerpt: “I remembered what Eugenia Ginzburghad written about her two years in a maximum-security Yaroslavl prison before being sent to the Gulag — that during this period she was the best version of herself, at her most patient, kind, and thoughtful.”
3. Reinier de Graaf, architect, verb: The New Language of Building. A fun read, with chapters on the various prizes in architecture, Vancouver and city liveability, Richard Florida, and more. The book closes with a fun list of b.s. terms often heard from both academics and bureaucrats.
4. China Mieville, The Rouse. This novel is 1200 pp. plus, with pretty big pages, and I am on p.350 or so. It seems very good. At what point can I judge it? Can it sustain itself? Is “ah, but it fell apart on p.1137” actually a possibility? Past what page number is it in the clear? I guess I will find out.
The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Bottoms up, motherfuckers!YED 2001 - November 4 YED 2002 - October 5 YED 2003 - October 25 YED 2004 - October 20 YED 2005 - October 10 YED 2006 - October 7 YED 2007 - October 8 YED 2008 - September 23 YED 2010 - October 22 YED 2011 - October 6 YED 2012 - October 18 YED 2013 - September 25 YED 2014 - September 24 YED 2015 - October 6 YED 2016 - September 29 YED 2017 - October 21 YED 2018 - October 9 YED 2019 - October 19 YED 2020 - October 9 YED 2021 - October 5 YED 2022 - October 23 YED 2023 - September 24 YED 2024 - October 29 YED 2025 - October 8 YED 2026 - OCTOBER 7
YEDs highlighted in red are seasons in which the Red Sox directly eliminated the Yankees.