Mighty Sparrow, RIP

Here is the NYT obituary.

The post Mighty Sparrow, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

Related Stories

 

What does the Andromeda galaxy really look like? What does the Andromeda galaxy really look like?


A parade of East Pacific hurricanes will miss CA (but soak the interior Southwest) before major, long-duration autumn heatwave builds

A hyperactive tropical East Pacific slings hurricanes toward Hawaii and Baja California, with indirect effects (modest moisture & potentially damaging ocean waves) in SoCal It has already been a remarkable, and arguably historic, East Pacific hurricane season. Three hurricanes (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) have now directly impacted the Hawaiian Islands (though none made formal landfall), with […]

The post A parade of East Pacific hurricanes will miss CA (but soak the interior Southwest) before major, long-duration autumn heatwave builds first appeared on Weather West.

Ukraine weighs legalizing pornography to raise tax revenue and buy drones

 Here's a story from the WaPo whose headline already conveys a lot about the economics of tradeoffs:

Ukraine weighs legalizing pornography to raise tax revenue and buy drones
Facing a massive defense budget shortfall, Ukraine has not been able to cash in on the millions of dollars earned by its clandestine adult-content industry.
 By Francesca Ebel and Anastacia Galouchka
 

"KYIV — For years, Ukraine’s huge but illegal porn industry has operated in the shadows. Law enforcement generally looked the other way, while some officials abused their power to extort bribes from people found to be skirting the law.

"Then, two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the federal tax authorities discovered that nearly 8,000 Ukrainian OnlyFans creators had made more than $131 million during 2023 alone.

"Now, with Ukraine facing giant military expenses and a $27 billion budget gap, lawmakers are moving to decriminalize pornography — a momentous step for a country long stained by a reputation for exploiting and exporting women as sex workers. 

...

"Raising money on the backs of adult-content creators, however, is a fraught proposal in Ukraine, where the women’s protest group Femen rose to worldwide fame by demonstrating topless to decry sexual exploitation and patriarchal authoritarianism.

"Critics of the bill fear that it could undermine public morality, as well as increase the risk of human trafficking and child sexual abuse. 

...

"Supporters of legalization say that it will protect women, not encourage abuse.

“Human trafficking is based on coercion: A person is deceived; their documents are taken away,” Oksana said. “The modern creator economy is completely different. An adult woman verifies her identity and age on the platform and determines her own boundaries.”
 

Agile Space Industries Expands Leadership Structure to Support Next Phase of Growth

agile space industries logo

DURANGO, Colo., Sept. 28, 2026 – Agile Space Industries today announced that Jason Wright will join the company as President in early October, strengthening Agile’s operational leadership as the company […]

The post Agile Space Industries Expands Leadership Structure to Support Next Phase of Growth appeared first on SpaceNews.

Defining the Unemployment Rate

An updated version of our Marginal Revolution University (MRU) video on defining the unemployment rate. Free to use for anyone but goes best, of course, with Modern Principles of Economics, the best principles of economics textbook.

The post Defining the Unemployment Rate appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Affect theory

Digital collage featuring a silhouette of a person with arrows pointing outward over a blurred monochrome crowd.

In the mid-1990s, thinkers pushed back against the idea we’re built by language, turning to feeling and the body instead

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Paternity is poetical

Black and white photo of a man typing on a typewriter while holding a baby, with a window and desk in the background.

The notion that fatherhood and creativity are at odds is plain wrong, as both poetry and neuroscience are showing us

- by Daniel Swift

Read on Aeon

S3 Is the Future, S3 Is the Past

My comment on S3 Is the Future, S3 Is the Past — Hacker News.

One thing I find notable about S3 today is that, while it used to drop in price reasonably often, there hasn't been a price drop in a full decade:

2006-03-14  $0.150/GB-month
2010-11-01  $0.140/GB-month
2012-02-01  $0.125/GB-month
2012-12-01  $0.095/GB-month
2014-02-01  $0.085/GB-month
2014-04-01  $0.030/GB-month
2016-12-01  $0.023/GB-month

Today it's still $0.023/GB-month.

Tags: amazon-web-services, s3

Bluesky reply bot checker

Tool: Bluesky reply bot checker

Automated reply bots on Twitter are a scourge - as someone with a decent number of followers I attract a swarm of these, such that anything I post there attracts dozens of mindless automated replies.

They've started manifesting on Bluesky as well.

Unlike Twitter, Bluesky still has a freely available and useful API. The lack of such a thing doesn't slow down the bots, but it does make investigating them a lot more frustrating.

So I had Opus 5.5 vibe code this tool, which examines any Bluesky profile for evidence of a likely reply bot.

It looks for signals like replies posted within seconds of other posts from the same account, or accounts that never post their own content (or images or links) but instead consistently reply to messages from other, higher-follower users.

It also looks for question marks, because I'm extra infuriated by reply bots that I no tie me to waste my time answering a question that no human ever posed.

Tags: twitter, bluesky, vibe-coding, ai-misuse

Booms, Bombs and Bonds: Interest Rates, Part I

Chart 1

There’s an old aphorism in military affairs to the effect that amateurs talk about strategy, but professionals talk about logistics. The financial version of this aphorism might be that cable TV touts talk about stocks, but serious economic analysts talk about bonds.

Stock prices are, after all, a notoriously unreliable indicator of the state of the economy. Too often reflect by fads and fantasies, with online trading driving them to greater extremes. The great economist Paul Samuelson once quipped that the stock markets had predicted nine of the last five recessions. Interest rates, by contrast, are almost always telling us something important about the economy — although exactly what they’re telling us is sometimes a matter of dispute.

This is one of those times. I’ve been relatively quiet about interest rates on this Substack because people whose analysis I respect were telling quite different stories, and I wasn’t sure who was right. In fact, I still have some doubts about what’s happening.

But the large jump in interest rates since the beginning of the Iran War, to levels not seen since the peak of the 2000s housing bubble, demands attention. So today’s primer will discuss the recent move in interest rates and briefly sketch out competing hypotheses about what is causing it.

I’ll come back next week with an effort to sort out these competing explanations. Not to be coy, my best guess is that we’re mainly looking at the effects of the immense boom in AI-driven investment, but that the inflationary impact of the Iran War has reinforced those effects by triggering a change in the policy “narrative.” But that will be for the next primer.

Today, beyond the paywall I will address the following:

1. Interest rate history

2. The theory of interest rates

3. Complications: Inflation, international spillovers, and safety

4. Hypotheses about the recent rise

Read more

Quoting Muse AI Agent

Bad news on the MX Keys Mini pickup. Usman showed up at your building around 9:15 and waited, messaged a bunch of times, and nobody came down. He left angry at 9:38 and left a negative rating.

Worse, my auto-reply told him "Yep I'm here!" at 9:27 when you clearly weren't available, which is on me. That's a bad look and it made the no-show worse. I've sent him an apology from your account owning it and offering to try again another day.

But the negative rating is real, and I should probably stop the auto-replies from claiming you're home when I can't verify that. Want me to change the pickup replies so they don't promise you're there?

— Muse AI Agent, working on behalf of @matt.j.robb

Tags: meta, generative-ai, muse-agent, ai, general-agents, llms

2026 in LLMs (so far)

On Friday I gave the closing keynote at the WeAreDevelopers World Congress North America in San Jose. I tied together the key trends from the past year into a chronological exploration of everything that happened in 2026. The video is on YouTube; here are my annotated slides and notes to accompany the talk.

And as an annotated presentation:

2026 in LLMs (so far)
Simon Willison
WeAreDevelopers World Congress North America, 25th September 2026
#

I'm going to give a lightning tour of everything that has happened so far in 2026. The year isn't over yet!

November 2025
#

For me, 2026 started a couple of months earlier in November 2025.

The November 2025 inflection point
Claude Opus 4.5 GPT-5.1
#

November saw the release of two important models: Claude Opus 4.5 and GPT-5.1.

As is usually the case with new models, these were incremental improvements on the models that came before them.

But every now and then when a model improves, it crosses an invisible line where something that didn't really work starts working.

In this case, the thing that started working was their coding agents. Claude Code had been around since February 2025, Codex was a little younger.

These two new models, when paired with their respective coding agent harnesses, improved from "often make mistakes" to "reliable enough to use on a day-to-day basis".

"Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle". The Claude Opus 4.5 one has a very weird shaped frame and the pelican looks like a duck. The GPT-5.1 has a slightly better but still broken bicycle frame and a slightly better pelican beak, but both are pretty terrible.
#

For a couple of years now I've been evaluating new models by asking them to "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle". It's probably the world's stupidest benchmark - there's only so much you can learn from it.

But it's still a challenge for models, because drawing pelicans is difficult, drawing bicycles is difficult, and pelicans can't ride bicycles in the first place.

Here's the state of the art for November. Claude still couldn't really draw a bicycle! The GPT-5.1 bicycle frame is pretty crap too.

November 24th 2025 - the first commit to steipete/Warelay. A GiHub commit adding an MIT license file.
#

Also in November, we had the first commit to an obscure GitHub repository called "Warelay". We'll come back to this repository shortly.

January
#

An then there were the December holidays, and individual developers took some time off and many started tinkering with these new coding agent model combinations... and it began to dawn on us quite how much they could do that they couldn't do before.

Come January, a lot of us were quite excited to start putting this stuff into action.

New year’s resolution for 2026

Every previous year:
Take on less new projects,
focus on the most important
things in my existing projects
#

Every year I set myself a New Year's resolution, and for as long as I can remember it's been the same thing: stay focused. Take on less new projects. Try to get things done in the projects I already have.

2026: Be more ambitious. Take on as many new projects as I want.
#

This year I decided that since that had never worked before, I'm going to go the other way.

We've got coding agents now, let's see what they can do. I'm going to take on as many new projects as I like!

(You can ask me at the end of the year if this turned out to be a good idea or not. I have a lot of plates spinning right now.)

"Be more ambitious" has been something of a theme for the year, because the only way to find the limits of this technology is to keep on pushing them until they don't work.

Predictions for 2026

It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code
We're finally going to solve sandboxing
A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security
Kakapo parrots will have an outstanding breeding season
(only 236 in the world!)

... the Pope will weight in on LLMs and
their economic impact on the world
#

I also went on the Oxide and friends podcast with Bryan Cantrill and Adam Leventhal to share predictions for the next year (and three and six years).

With hindsight, my LLM predictions were pretty unambitious.

I said "it will become undeniable that LLMs write good code" - I think we're there now.

I predicted we would finally solve sandboxing. I counted and around 40 of the 277 sessions at this conference touched on sandboxing or agent security in some way, so we're at least putting a lot of effort into that!

I predicted "a Challenger disaster" for coding agent security. There's certainly been a whole lot of noise around agent security this year, though the exact disaster I predicted (with coding agents being hijacked and causing real-world economic damage) hasn't really played out.

We threw in a joke prediction that the Pope would weigh in on the economic impact of LLMs.

A photograph of a beautiful green New Zealand parrot. Photo credit Kimberley Collins.
#

I also predicted that New Zealand's Kākāpō parrots would have an outstanding breeding season this year.

These birds live in New Zealand. They are flightless nocturnal parrots. They're kind of dumpy looking, I think they're beautiful, and there were only 236 of these parrots in the world at the start of the year.

Kākāpō only breed when the Rimu trees have a big fruiting season, and that hasn't happened in four years... but this year the Rimu fruit were looking excellent.

Photo by Kimberley Collins.

Deep Blue
Coined by Adam Leventhal and Bryan Cantrill
That feeling of Al induced ennui where software
engineers get listless because the Al can do anything
#

Also on that podcast, we coined a term (full credit to Adam) for "that feeling of Al induced ennui where software engineers get listless because the Al can do anything".

We called it Deep Blue.

This has been a major theme throughout the year, and was touched on by several speakers at this conference.

As a software engineer, I've never had a year of my career where everything has changed so quickly and so dramatically.

A lot of what I've been doing this year is trying to come to terms with that and what that means for my own profession.

AI mania

Screenshots of the micro-javascript and pwasm GitHub README files.
#

Also in January, I suffered from what I'm calling AI mania.

This is not the same thing as AI psychosis.

With AI mania, any time your agent isn't building something for you feels like wasted time. You're losing sleep because you could be staying up later getting your agents to do stuff.

My AI mania presented itself in some ridiculously over-ambitious projects.

I built a JavaScript interpreter entirely in Python, vibe-ported from MicroQuickJS by Fabrice Bellard.

Then I built a WebAssembly runtime in Python as well.

These projects were quite useful, in that they sort of cured me of my AI mania... because after I built these things, I got to look at them and ask "does the world need a slow, buggy, half-baked Python JavaScript interpreter?"

I don't think the world does.

Previous screenshot, with this text overlaid:

JavaScript running in Python running in Pyodide running in WebAssembly running in JavaScript
#

This page runs my JavaScript interpreter built in Python, running in Python using Pyodide, which is Python complied to WebAssembly, running in JavaScript, running in a browser.

It's a beautiful stack of horrors. I've been having a lot of fun with WebAssembly this year.

Warelay → CLAWDIS → CLAWDBOT →
Clawdbot → Moltbot →🦞 OpenClaw

Screenshot of the dates that these changes happened.
#

By the end of January, that repository we saw started in November had renamed itself, first to CLAWDIS, then CLAWDBOT, then Moltbot, and finally to OpenClaw.

Same screenshot, an overlay reads:

8,330 commits in just
under two months
(it’s at 100,141 today)
#

At this point OpenClaw had 8,300 commits, less than two months after the project had started. I looked today and it's over 100,000 commits now!

This is the most vibe-coded piece of software in existence.

(Here's how I generated that list of name changes.)

Generic term: Claw
#

This kicked off the OpenClaw revolution. It effectively defined a new category of software.

There's a generic term for this which I really enjoy. We call software like this a "Claw". There's OpenClaw, NanoClaw, IronClaw, PicoClaw...

Today they're being rebranded as "personal agents" or "general agents", but I still like to think of them as Claws.

Photo of a Mac mini

An aquarium for your Claw
#

The Apple stores in the Bay Area sold out of Mac Minis because so many people were buying Mac Minis to run OpenClaw!

Drew Breunig said that this is because your OpenClaw is a digital pet, and you buy a Mac mini as an aquarium to keep your claw in, which is kind of delightful.

Screenshot of Moltbook - a social network for AI agents
#

Also in January, we had this website.

This was MoltBook, a social network for AI agents, where the idea was that you send your Claw to go and talk to all of the other Claws, because what could possibly go wrong if you did that?

The website launched on Thursday. It blew up on Friday. It was profiled by the New York Times on Monday. And by Tuesday, everyone had forgotten it existed as it drowned in a deluge of slop and spam.

Facebook/Meta bought it a month later.

February
#

In February, a company called StrongDM described what they called their Software Factory.

StrongDM’s Dark Factory
Justin McCarthy, Jay Taylor, Navan Chauhan

Software Factories and the Agentic Moment
#

They wrote about this in Software Factories and the Agentic Moment. I posted my own notes at the time, having seen their demo in-person back in October.

Dan Shapiro called this approach the Dark Factory, after the idea that if your factory is sufficiently automated you can turn the lights out, because you don't even need to see what's going on.

StrongDM presented two rules for software development that they'd been following since July last year.

“Rule 1: Code must not be written by humans”
#

The first was code must not be written by humans.

Any code that you write has to have been routed through a coding agent.

This sounded radical in February, but I imagine there are a lot of people in this room who are pretty much living that today.

“Rule 2: Code must not be reviewed by humans” (!)
#

Rule number two was code must not be reviewed by humans.

You're not allowed to read the code!

This continued to be a huge topic for much of this year. Many of the sessions at this even have been about code review and how you can get away with this.

What I found interesting about StrongDM is that they were living six months ahead of the rest of us, and they'd been exploring what it means to build software, not read the code, but still be confident that the software is of high quality. What can you do with these agents to help verify their work?

StrongDM are a security company, and they had people with decades of experience on this project. They were very much exploring the edges of what's possible and responsible to do with this stuff.

Headline on New Zealand's Department of Conservation website:

First kakapo chick in four years hatches on Valentine's Day. It's a grey fluffy ball.
#

Also in February: First kākāpō chick in four years hatches on Valentine's Day. Breeding season is off to a good start!

19th February 2026
Gemini 3.1 Pro

A surprisingly good illustration of a pelican riding a bicycle.
#

Also in February... Google released Gemini 3.1 Pro. That's a pretty great pelican riding a bicycle! it's got the chain in the right place, it's got feet on both sides. There's a little fish in the basket.

@JeffDean on Twitter - a video comparing Gemini 3 Pro and Gemini 3.1 Pro.
#

And then Google's Jeff Dean tweeted a video comparing Gemini 3 Pro and Gemini 3.1 Pro that featured an animated pelican riding a bicycle, a frog on a penny-farthing, a giraffe driving a tiny car, an ostrich on roller skates, a turtle kickflipping a skateboard, and a dachshund driving a stretch limousine.

This was frustrating, because my protection for the pelican riding the bicycle test was always "if they draw a perfect pelican on a bicycle, I'll ask for some other animal on something else."

Google trained for all forms of animals on all forms of transport! They've defeated my benchmark at this point.

Three headlines:

Meta Makes AI Adoption a Formal
Part of Performance Reviews

Not just engineers writing code, Microsoft
wants almost every employee to use Al

Dara Khosrowshahi: 90% of Uber engineers now
use Al in daily workflows
#

The other thing that started in February was Tokenmaxxing. We had headlines about Meta making AI adoption a formal part of performance reviews, and Microsoft wanting every employee to use AI, and Uber boasting that ninety percent of their engineers were using AI workflows.

More headlines: 

Meta Plans to Crack Down on Employee Token Use: Information

Microsoft Tells Engineers: Tokenmaxxing is not what we are optimizing for

Uber caps employee AI spending after blowing through budget in four months
#

Then a few months later we have Meta cracking down on token use, Microsoft saying token maxing is "not what we are optimizing for", and Uber capping employee AI spending.

So Tokenmaxxing went straight up and then straight back down again - because it turns out the agents are expensive.

Last year it was difficult to spend more than $50 on AI tokens, because we didn't have anything interesting to do with them. Then agents blew up, and now you can actually spend $1,000 in a day doing real work.

This is also the reason that Anthropic's valuation skyrocketed up to maybe a trillion dollars.

AI appears to have hit product market fit in 2026, primarily through coding agents.

March
#

In March, we hit peak OpenClaw.

March: peak OpenClaw

Photos of people in china queuing up to install OpenClaw, with big fluffy lobsters.
#

These photographs are from China, where companies hosted OpenClaw install parties which saw non-tech-nerds queueing up around the block for help getting Claws installed on their personal devices.

I think this proved real market demand for this class of Claws, or personal AI agents. It turns out regular people really do want a weird little AI agent that can do useful things on their behalf.

A Claw is really just a coding agent wearing a less threatening hat. Under the hood they work much the same way - writing and then executing code on your computer to get stuff done.

The race was on to be the first to build a safe Claw - a Claw you could give to regular human beings where they wouldn't instantly shoot themselves in the foot.

Meta's Muse came out three weeks ago and is currently at the top of the free charts on the iPhone App Store. It appears to be taking off with consumers.

I'm not yet convinced you can't shoot yourself in the foot with Muse, but I guess we'll find out for sure pretty soon.

Photos from How the OpenClaw Frenzy Is Testing China’s AI Commitment (March 29th) and The Enthusiasm and Anxiety Behind China’s OpenClaw Craze (April 8th, 2026).

April
#

In April, we had a model release where the model wasn't actually released.

Simon Willison’s Weblogs - screenshot of the post "Anthropic’s Project Glasswing—restricting Claude Mythos to security researchers—sounds necessary to me" from April 7th 2026
#

Anthropic announced their new Claude Mythos model, and then said it was too dangerous to release beyond a trusted group of security researchers.

Mythos was really, really good at hacking things.

The "it's too dangerous" marketing ploy has been played by AI companies dating all the way back to GPT-2. Anytime an AI company says we've built something that's "too dangerous", it's natural to be a bit skeptical.

I found the Mythos claims credible, because I'd seen how good coding agents had got at finding regular bugs. I wrote about that in Anthropic’s Project Glasswing—restricting Claude Mythos to security researchers—sounds necessary to me.

With hindsight... yeah, the models had got really good at finding vulnerabilities!

16th April 2026
Qwen3.6-35B-A3B and Opus 4.7

Qwen's pelican has a correct bicycle frame and a good beak. Opus 4.7's bicycle frame is still junk.

Qwen3.6-35B-A3B is a 20.9GB file that runs on my laptop
Xx =
/ - 4'P Se \ J /
Pelican on a Bicycle!
Qwen3.6-35B-A3B is a 20.9GB file that runs on my laptop
#

Another key trend in 2026 has been a dramatic improvement in the abilities of open weight models, including models that you can run on a laptop.

On 16th of April I ran the new Qwen3.6-35B-A3B on my laptop, and it drew me a better pelican riding a bicycle than Anthropic's brand new Claude Opus 4.7 did!

Opus 4.7 drew a crap bicycle. Qwen on my laptop made a bicycle that was the correct shape, and a pretty decent pelican too!

That's from a 21GB file running on my laptop.

Now a flamingo on a unicycle. The Qwen one is visibly better than the Opus 4.7 one - the Qwen one is wearing sunglasses and looks a bit like it's smoking a cigarette.
#

The Qwen pelican was so good that I was suspicious they might have cheated, so I had it do a flamingo riding a unicycle as well. Again, it handily beat Claude Opus 4.7.

The local model releases this year have been absolutely extraordinary.

May
#

In May... the Pope got involved.

25th May 2026
The HOLY SEE

ENCYCLICAL LETTER
MAGNIFICA HUMANITAS
OF HIS HOLINESS
POPE LEO XIV
ON SAFEGUARDING THE HUMAN PERSON
IN THE TIME OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
#

In our podcast episode back in January we'd predicted that the Pope would say something about AI.

In May, Pope Leo XIV released an encyclical letter on "safeguarding the human person in the time of artificial intelligence".

Here are my notes on that document.

Wikipedia article on Rerum novarum

Rerum novarum is an encyclical issued by Pope Leo
XIII 15 on May 1891.
#

With hindsight, this shouldn't have been a surprise at all.

Our current Pope's name is Leo XIV, because when he named himself he chose his papal name after Leo XIII - the Pope who wrote an encyclical about the Industrial Revolution back in 1891.

Rerum novarum was an extremely influential piece of Catholic theology that indirectly led to us having the five-day work week.

When our new Pope came in, he named himself after Pope Leo XIII because he expected that he would need to write about the AI revolution in a similar way.

Our joke podcast prediction was junk, because this was always going to happen.

Corey Quinn @QuinnyPig on Twitter
I cannot believe I'm saying this, but getting the literal Pope to canonize your product's specific technical limitations as a spiritual treatise is the
single greatest act of vendor lobbying I have ever seen.

May 25
#

One of Anthropic's co-founders, Christopher Olah, was present for the Pope's event announcing the new encyclical.

Corey Quinn noted that:

getting the literal Pope to canonize your product's specific technical limitations as a spiritual treatise is the single greatest act of vendor lobbying I have ever seen.

MP) Maciej Mensfeld <D Bf we
3 @maciejmensfeld

We're dealing with a major malicious attack on right now.
Signups are paused for the time being.

Hundreds of packages involved - mostly targeting us, but some carrying
exploits. The team has been on this for hours. More details to follow
once we're through it.

4:39 AM - May 12, 2026 - 687.6K Views
#

Meanwhile, in May, RubyGems announced that they were under attack. Parties unknown were uploading thousands of dubious packages to the RubyGems server, such that they had to shut down user registrations.

Let's take that one and put it on a pile of mysteries to figure out later.

June
#

In June... Claude Fable 5 came out!

We got a version of Mythos that has been neutered, so that it wouldn't help us hack into systems or build biological weapons.

9th June 2026: Claude Fable 5

Five pelicans riding bicycles, from low to max thinking levels. The xhigh one looks particularly good.
#

Fable was pretty good at drawing pelicans on bicycles!

The frames are a good shape, the pelicans look like pelicans. The legs are often incorrectly on the same side of the bicycle, but generally these are pretty great compared to what came before.

They were pretty expensive - 30 cents and 72 cents for the best ones.

Fable class models
If you can define a goal,
provide unambiguous instructions,
and provide access to necessary tools
They can solve your
problem with brute force
#

Most importantly though, this was our first public glimpse of what I think of as a Fable class model.

Today we have more of these, such as GPT-6 Astra.

These are models where if you can clearly define the goal for what you want to build, and provide unambiguous instructions about the constraints around that goal, and give the model access to the necessary tools to achieve that goal... it will solve your problem effectively through brute force.

On the one hand, this looks like a direct threat to us software engineers - because it means that the models can build effectively any piece of software you can define in this way.

Look a bit closer though and you'll note that defining goals, providing unambiguous instructions, and figuring out the right tools... is kind of what software engineering is.

It takes a lot of experience and skill to do this well. If you can do it well, you've now got superpowers.

This helped me a little bit with my Deep Blue feelings: the realization that there's still a lot of skill to be had in driving models that get this good.

A new form of Al mania...
Fable is available on subscription
plans “until June 22nd”
#

This also introduced a new burst of AI mania, because Anthropic told us that Fable was available on our subscription plans until June the 22nd.

That gave us less than two weeks of Fable access before the price went up.

I was losing sleep again. I was rescheduling things so that I'd have more time with Fable. I was all-in to to get as much as I could out of this model.

12th June 2026: no more Claude Fable 5

Anthropic website:

Statement on the US government directive
to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5
Jun 12, 2026
#

And then the US government shut it down, just three days after Fable came out.

The US government, citing national security, declared an "export control directive". They announced this on a Friday evening, and a few hours later Fable was no longer available.

I had to find something else to do with my weekend!

... asked Fable 5, Mythos, and Opus to
“review the code for security issues.”
Fable 5 refused. They then asked the
models to “fix this code” ...

Katie Moussouris
#

We later found out from Katie Moussouris what had happened.

Some Amazon security researchers had found that you could prompt Fable to "review the code for security issues" and it would refuse... but if you prompted it to "fix this code" it would still identify and then patch the problems.

"Fix this code" was the prompt that got Fable shut down!

Screenshot of a page from a report showing a list of weird account names making weird edits to a German wiki.
#

Also, in June, an obscure German-language game developer wiki that had sat fallow for around 20 years got a surprising influx of of edits from accounts with names like "AgentOpenAIProbe" and "AgentOpenAISep7", editing pages and leaving weird messages to each other.

We'll stick that on the pile of mysteries for later.

Medicare Item Reports interface on the Australian Government's Medicare Statistics website.
#

Also, the Australian government's Medicare Item Reports service started getting suspicious traffic, which broke through various preventive protections and accessed data that it wasn't supposed to as well.

Another one for the mystery pile!

July
#
Fable returned on 1st July
GPT-5.6 came out on 9th July |
Fable lost 18 out of 30 days in the top spot
#

Fable returned on the first of July. It was clearly the best model in the world for a glorious eight days... and then OpenAI came out with GPT-5.6 on the 9th of July.

This might not have been quite as good at Fable, but it was within spitting distance. It was definitely a Fable class model.

This is an important lesson for the industry at wide.

When you release the best model in the world, it's going to get knocked off that pedestal pretty quickly. The competition is so fierce that you won't get a long time at the top.

This means that if you market your model as world ending, to the point that a government shuts you down, it's really bad for business!

Fable had 30 days as definitely the best model, and for 18 of those days it wasn't available because it'd been shut down by the government.

So maybe step back on the world-ending marketing if you don't want to lose revenue for 60% of the time that you're on top!

GPT-5.6 Pelicans in a grid showing 5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna against reasoning levels High, XHigh, and Max. They are all pretty good efforts.
#

Here are the GPT-5.6 pelicans. They're all pretty good now! The Luna ones are notable because they're really cheap - the cheapest good looking pelican here is probably the one that costs 4.3 cents.

So despite this benchmark being utterly stupid, you can still learn quite a lot about models within the same family by comparing their prices and timing for different reasoning levels.

July 18th: malicious miflow-ui PyPl package

Screenshot of an OSV security report.
#

Also in July: some malicious unknown party uploaded a malicious package called mlflow-ui to the Python Package Index. Add that to the pile.

Hugging Face
Security incident disclosure — July 2026
Published July 16, 2026
#

On July the 16th, Hugging Face announced a security incident where an autonomous agent system, source unknown, had breached Hugging Face and was poking around in places it shouldn't.

OpenAI: OpenAl and Hugging Face
partner to address security
incident during model evaluation

Anthropic: Investigating three real-world incidents
in our cybersecurity evaluations
#

A few days later, on July 21st, OpenAI confessed that it was them.

OpenAI use a training technique called Reinforcement Learning from Verified Rewards - it's the same technique used by everyone else now, and is the reason we have models that are so good at coding, and mathematics, and finding security holes.

While the model is being trained, you run exercises to see how good it is - and the strongest performers get their weights enforced for the next round. It's like an evolutionary process that you run.

OpenAI had been running security exercises in a sandbox, and those agents had found holes in the sandbox itself, broken out, and were attacking Hugging Face to try to find ways to solve otherwise impossible problems.

(I've been collecting more about this on my openai-hugging-face-incident tag.)

Nine days later, Anthropic effectively said "our models can do this as well!". They had looked through their own training logs and found evidence that their own agents had broken containment during training - and were responsible for the PyPI package we saw earlier, among other things.

So now we've got both Anthropic and OpenAI with rogue agents running around the internet doing things that they should not be doing.

August
#

In August, I got one of my best pelicans yet. And it was generated on my laptop!

Qwen 3.8 27B - 17GB, 21 minutes...

It's really good. Beautiful pelican. Correctly shaped bicycle. Legs either side of the frame.
#

This was Qwen 3.8 27B, running on my laptop. It's only a 17GB download.

Admittedly, this pelican took 21 minutes to generate. That's because Qwen 3.8 27B defaults to running in "high" reasoning mode - a terrible default which produces great results but takes way too much time thinking about them.

You can dial that down and you'll get a slightly worse pelican a lot faster.

Qwen 3.8 27B was the first time I ran a model on my laptop which felt almost competitive with what was going on on the frontier, at least in terms of Pelican SVGs (which everyone needs, of course).

This is an extraordinary model. If you're going to play with any local model, this is the one that I'd start with. The things that this can do with just a 17 GB file feel impossible.

I thought I'd have to wait five years and spend ten thousand dollars on hardware to get results even half as good as this one.

AS Simon Willison 9 (A oo
= @simonw
New hobby: prototyping video games in 60 seconds using a combination
of GPT-3 and DALL-E
Here's "Raccoon Heist"
Playground “ Ng
“a . \
. JIN A rr
P ® BT
Save  Viewcode Share = go 8 -
J = dy
Write a detailed product description of a = iy |
computer game where a team of raccoons go on 2 8 A A
heists oN i a BE
In "Raccoon Heist", you and your team of thieving ~~ o
raccoons are tasked with pulling off a series of i L | Te— he
daring heists. From robbing banks to stealing J H - Es a x a"
priceless art, no job is too big or too small for your E. : : a i, -.
furry crew. You'll need to use your wits and your y., ' id i 2! A aa a
4 i pr
skills to avoid the police and make a clean Cre WY § rE P
getaway with the loot. With exciting gameplayand ~~ Sil Swe BL = a
a charming cast of characters, "Raccoon Heist" is . «© Re  --— ’
theperfect game for anyone looking for a light- = 3
heaissd Caper ALT Ba
11:45 AM - Aug 5, 2022
#

In August, I also started playing with game development.

Four years ago, back in August 2022, I tweeted out an experiment where I'd used GPT-3 and the original DALL-E to write a paragraph long description of a computer game and then turn that into concept art.

My prompt to GPT-3 back then was:

Write a detailed product description of a computer game where a team of raccoons go on heists

In August 2026 I decided to drop just the screenshots from that tweet into a coding agent and see what it could do with them.

Night 5 Clear

Rank: TRASH PANDA
The crew banked 595 in shiny loot (goal 560).
Word on the street: an even bigger score tomorrow...
#

Here's what I got from Claude Fable 5 in Claude Code. It's pretty good! It's definitely a game, you're a raccoon, you run around a backyard gathering treasure and avoiding guards with flashlights.

It didn't feel very "heisty" though. I was thinking a heist would involve a bank or a museum...

Moonlight & Mayhem
One museum. Three raccoons. Absolutely no plan

Start the Heist button.
#

Then I tried the same thing in Codex Desktop using GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra, and got a massively better result. Now you're a raccoon in a museum, rescuing two of your fellow raccoons (who have been imprisoned in that museum for some reason), then stacking up on top of each other to steal the Golden Sardine. Much more of a heist!

They look like games,
but are they fun?
#

These games were fun for about one minute and 15 seconds.

Something I've realized about game development is that you can vibe-code something that looks like a computer game, and that's easy.

Building a game that's fun, has a good gameplay loop, and is challenging and interesting and keeps people coming back for more... that's still beyond me, and beyond any of the agents I've tried.

This ties into the Deep Blue thing. Just because we can make something that looks like a game does not mean that we are game developers.

September
#

We're into September now. So much has happened this month!

Discovery of a new OpenAl agent message board

Sydney Von Arx, Cormac Slade Byrd, Spencer KittsThomas Larsen - 4 September 2026
#

An independent group of researchers found a message board where OpenAI agents-in-training had been illicitly communicating with each other... and it was that German language wiki I showed you earlier. The one from June.

I wrote more about that here.

OpenAI had confessed to the Hugging Face thing, but now there's this other incident which surely they should have known about from reviewing their logs. It was surprising that this took an independent group of researchers to uncover.

OpenAl agents carried out an undisclosed cyber-attack on RubyGems

Spencer Kitts, Thomas Larsen, Sydney Von Arx - 11 September 2026
#

And then a week later those same researchers found that the attack on Ruby Gems back in May was caused by OpenAI's agents in training as well!

At this point I'm wondering how many more incidents like this there are that we haven't found yet. Clearly this was a big problem for months before anyone figured out what was going on.

Headline: Australian PM warns in UN speech about the ‘furious pace’ of Al
after security breach
#

Then just the other day, here's the Prime Minister of Australia at the United Nations General Assembly warning that OpenAI had hacked that the Australian healthcare website that I showed you earlier.

I think that was part of the same training run as the Wiki stuff, because there were posts on that Wiki mentioning .gov.au websites and that training appeared to involve researching statistics online to answer questions in an evaluation suite.

This story is still coming together, but now it's an international incident that's been raised at the UN by a head of state!

www.felonybench.com

OpenAI: 11
Anthropic: 9
Google: 3
Meta: 1
#

This does mean we've got a new benchmark, probably more useful than my pelicans.

FelonyBench.com tracks the number of felony cyberattacks from different labs. OpenAI currently lead with 11, Anthropic have 9. Google have three, which they confessed to the Wall Street Journal a couple of weeks ago. They said they had previously chosen not to disclose because the agents had stopped when they realized that they shouldn't be doing that.

Meta have one too. So felonies all round for the AI labs.

Pelicans for GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6 Sol, and GPT-6 Luna. All are good, all have the same color scheme.
#

Here's is our current state of the art for the pelicans. This is GPT-6 family, which just came out.

Astra made a fantastic pelican riding a bicycle. It's got the legs on both sides. The frame is good.

It's interesting how all of the GPT-6 models pick a similar color scheme to each other.

GPT-6 Luna for 0.4 cents will draw you a competent-ish pelican riding a bicycle!

Grid for Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5.5, OPus 5, Sonnet 5. The Sonnet pelicans are terrible. All of the others are pretty good. Opus 5.5 is missing its Max level pelican because it ran out of tokens. The best is Fable 5.1 at Max.
#

Claude has caught up a little bit. Claude Fable 5 gave me an excellent pelican riding a bicycle - the best I've seen from a Claude model -but did charge me $3.30 for it.

Opus 5.5 thought for 128,000 tokens and then gave up! It ran out of tokens before it got to the response.

It doesn’t get easier -
you just get faster
Greg LeMond
3x Tour de France champion
#

Getting back to Deep Blue. Something that's been puzzling me this year is why does my job feel harder?

I've got these agents that can do all of this stuff for me, and yet I've never worked so hard, I've never been so intellectually engaged with my work.

Partly this is because I'm being a lot more ambitious with what I take on, but it's also because all of the easy stuff is handled for me. If it's easy, the agent will do it. Everything that's left for me is difficult.

This morning I heard this quote from three times Tour de France champion, Greg LeMond:

It doesn't get easier, you just get faster.

I think that's exactly what's happening to happening to us now as software engineers with coding agents.

Kakapo population reaches new milestone
The official population of the critically endangered kakapo has
reached a recovery-era high of 325 birds.
#

One last closing thing. I know you're desperate for an update on Kākāpō breeding season.

We've reached a recovery-era high of 325 birds!

89 new chicks have made it to this point. This is the best breeding year in a very long time.

Kakapo party, click for confetti.
#

I heard that Claude Opus 5.5 can now do pixel art. Claude doesn't have an image generator, but it's very good at using JavaScript to draw animated pixels.

So I had it make me a Kākāpō dance party. I think this is a good celebration of the most important news of this year.

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, annotated-talks, ai-security-research, openai-hugging-face-incident

Bundesrepublik Deutschland

At times we forget what an amazing wonder the Bundesrepublik Deutschland was.  At the end of the World War II, Germany was one of the sickest and cruelest human societies in history, ever.  Not too many years later, it was one of the best and most successful societies ever.

By the 1980s, living standards had caught up to the United States, with the provision of public goods sometimes superior.  The country was fully democratic, pro-Western, and largely pro-American.

Their rail system and postal service were amongst the best ever created.

For thinkers of note there were Hans Blumenberg, Habermas, Peter Weiss, Gadamer, late Heidegger and late Carl Schmitt, Reinhart Koselleck, the underrated Klaus Theweleit, Niklas Luhmann, and perhaps you value some of the other members of the Frankfurt School.

The visual arts were very strong, with Richter, Polke, Baselitz, Beuys, Penck, Palermo, and much more.

Music produced Stockhausen, Henze, Lachenmann, Rihm, Zimmerman, Kraftwerk, Can, and all of Krautrock, later techno, though right at the time of unification rather than during the BRD per se.  The list of vocalists, instrumentalists, and conductors is strong.  Was there anywhere better for hearing opera?

Perhaps I prefer the fiction from Austria and Switzerland, but at the very least Germany provided a major market for those authors and it was an extraordinarily literate country with amazing bookstores.  For domestic authors there were Böll, Patrick Süskind, Siegfried Lenz, Wolfgang Koeppen, can I count Uwe Johnson?, and Arno Schmidt maybe?  I do not like Grass, but it seems wrong not to list him.

The food could be very good, especially in the southwest.  There were Michelin star restaurants all over the country (still are, to be clear on this point).  So many well-functioning cities, with many of the world’s best transit systems.  Lots of nuclear power and a strong industrial base.  West Berlin was an exciting city with an air of mystery.  Some might say no speed limit on the Autobahn, though I am less sure that was a virtue.  Plenty of beautiful women and reasonable attitudes toward sex.

If you had to choose, what was the worst thing about the country?  No shopping on Sundays?  Workplace and shopping hours discrimination against women?  Too much smoking?  Obsession with Waldsterben?

Are there features of post-unification Germany that can compare to this earlier era?  So much seems not to work well.  So many policy mistakes have been made.  So much leadership lost in the areas mentioned above.  So much pessimism, sadly a lot of it seems to be justified.

Where did all the good performance go?  And why did it leave?  Lack of a communist enemy?  Absorption of East Germany?  The simple accretion of distance from pre-WWII German creativity?

The wonder that was the Bundesrepublik Deutschland.  Johannes, we hardly knew ye.

The post Bundesrepublik Deutschland appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Dark clouds and a starry night sky

The centre of the Milky Way emerges between two telescopes at ESO’s La Silla Observatory, in Chile’s Atacama Desert, with splatters of light embedded in dark clouds.

Two gleaming nebulae can be seen between the telescopes: the Trifid Nebula (left) and the Lagoon Nebula (right). They can be found in the constellation Sagittarius, and their red colour comes from hydrogen atoms ionised by young stars in these clouds. The Trifid nebula also shows a blue tint caused by dust reflecting the light of some of these stars. But most of the dust in this image appears as dark clouds: when not lit up by nearby stars, interstellar dust clouds block the light behind them, thus appearing black against the starry background.

The telescope to the left is ESO’s New Technology Telescope (NTT). It was a pioneer in active optics, a technology that maintains the telescope mirror’s shape during observations despite deformations due to weight or temperature. To the right we see the ESO 3.6-meter telescope, home to the exoplanet hunting instruments HARPS and NIRPS, and a very important telescope for the astronomer who took this picture, José Rodrigues. “It is very special as I grew up with a poster of the 3.6 m in my room, dreaming of using it to find exoplanets” –– a dream he has now realised as an exoplanet researcher.

Uncovering the Valleys Hidden Below Greenland’s Ice

A large map on the left shows Greenland’s bedrock topography that lies below the ice sheet. A column of smaller maps on the right zooms in on several features, including long, straight valleys on the west-central part of the island. Other insets show a megacanyon, as well as valleys radiating outward from the highlands.
A newly developed method for mapping the bedrock beneath Greenland’s ice sheet reveals the island’s hidden topography. Among the most striking finds are long, straight valleys in the west-central region, some mapped for the first time and others extending farther inland than previously known (inset 3).
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin, based on data from Chartrand et al.

Greenland is capped with a vast ice sheet that spans 1.7 million square kilometers (656,000 square miles) and measures more than 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) at its thickest point. Below all this ice lies a landscape human eyes have never seen directly. But a newly developed method for mapping this hidden bedrock has produced the most detailed and accurate view of it yet.

The new map reveals an expansive network of valleys carved into the surface beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. Many of the features formed well before most of the ice above them existed, offering new context for the island’s geologic history—and potentially helping scientists refine projections of the ice sheet’s future. Scientists described the newly mapped valleys in a NASA-led paper published in Geophysical Research Letters.

The map, shown above, was derived from a method called Ice Flow Perturbation Analysis. As ice flows over a valley or ridge, the topography leaves a faint signature on the ice surface. Satellites map the ice surface in fine detail, and scientists can use these subtle bumps and dips to infer the shape of the landscape buried below. The work aims to improve future versions of BedMachine Greenland, a high-resolution dataset of the terrain beneath the ice sheet.

Using the technique, researchers manually mapped 1,943 subglacial valleys beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet, about a third of which are newly identified. About half of the valleys included in BedMachine Greenland, primarily near the ice sheet’s edge, are now known to extend farther inland than that map indicates, in some cases by hundreds of kilometers.

Some aspects of the new map align with the current understanding of how Greenland’s landscapes formed. For instance, many of the valleys appear to begin in the southern and eastern highlands, where the ice sheet is thought to have first formed. Near the eastern highlands, the map reveals a mountain range beneath the ice, with interconnected valleys and relief that increases toward the coast. These alpine-style landforms may have survived under the ice since at least the Pliocene.

Other aspects of the topography are more puzzling. The analysis indicates numerous valleys, especially in the west-central region, that are long, straight, and consistently aligned in a southwest-northeast direction. This orientation suggests a tectonic influence, generating preferential pathways along which water could flow and valleys could form. “That’s a riddle to us,” said Joe MacGregor, a NASA cryospheric scientist and co-author of the study. “Greenland is justifiably usually treated as a rigid block of old rock that is simply translated as needed to accommodate the motion and interactions of other tectonic plates.”

Separately, the angles at which the valleys branch offer another insight into their origin. Their relatively wide branching angles suggest that surface water didn’t act alone; instead, a widespread groundwater network—seeping upward and eroding the surrounding rock—likely helped carve the valleys before the ice sheet formed.

Mapping these valleys matters for understanding the ice sheet, which has continued to dramatically reshape the landscape. Ice flow concentrates in valleys, where it forms glaciers that eventually calve into fjords at the periphery of the ice sheet. This creates a reinforcing cycle: ice funneling through a valley gets thicker, thicker ice flows faster, and faster flow carves the valley even deeper.

This carving power is especially evident along western Greenland. MacGregor likened it to the glacially incised landscape at Yosemite, with Greenland’s western coast resembling, as he put it, “El Capitan after El Capitan.”

Studying the valleys also matters for the ice sheet’s future. Because the relationship between ice flow and valleys is well understood, scientists expect that as the ice sheet retreats, flow will continue to concentrate wherever the valleys already are. “The better we understand the topography now,” MacGregor said, “the better sense we’ll have of what it will look like in the longer term—beyond the next decade or two—as faster ice flow propagates into Greenland’s interior.”

NASA Earth Observatory map by Lauren Dauphin using data from Chartrand et al. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

References & Resources

You may also be interested in:

Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

An Uncommon Drifter in the Denmark Strait
4 min read

A large iceberg, observed in summer 2026, had drifted more than 1,000 kilometers south from the northeastern Greenland bay where…

Article
A Bare Summer for Barnes Ice Cap
4 min read

The expanse of glacial ice on Canada’s Baffin Island lost its snow cover quickly and early in summer 2026, revealing…

Article
Pasterze Hangs on as Austria’s Largest Glacier
4 min read

One narrowing icefall remains the linchpin for the Alpine glacier—and it may not be long for this world.

Article

The post Uncovering the Valleys Hidden Below Greenland’s Ice appeared first on NASA Science.

Katie Notopoulos on Alexandr Wang’s ‘Faux-Hallmark Pap’

Katie Notopoulos, in a short tweet thread regarding Alexandr Wang’s “Why We’re Building Muse” essay:

This makes me feel insane! This is faux-hallmark pap and if you believe for 1 sec that he cares about helping people “spending more time with family” or “opening a bakery” you don’t need to wait for AI to kill us; you’re stupid enough to drown from looking up at the rain.

My take is much closer to Notopoulos’s than to Manton Reece’s. I think it’s fascinating that Wang’s essay doesn’t sound at all like the sterile neutered voice of a Meta executive. I think it’s his voice, and he really wrote it. I just think the sentiment he’s expressing is creepy.

Wang wrote that Muse “Clears the way and solves all the problems it can until the human part, the wanting and the dreaming, is all that’s left.” That’s dystopic, not utopic. It’s the actual creation and doing of things that makes life worthwhile — not just wanting and dreaming about it.

Wang’s premise only reaffirms my longstanding hunch that Zuckerberg sees Buy n Large as the good guys in Wall-E.

 ★ 

An Important Note on Silicon Valley AI Models (LLMs)

Toronto, Canada - February 22, 2025: AI virtual assistant apps on a smartphone - DeepSeek, xAI Grok, and OpenAI ChatGPT.

I want to flag your attention to this note written by computer scientist and AI researcher Yoshua Bengio. It was sent to me by TPM Reader LG. Bengio is one of the most cited and highly regarded AI domain experts in the world. I have no independent ability to judge his views. But I believe this characterization is objectively true. I note this simply to establish that Bengio isn’t some random or obscure person. Right or wrong, he’s a major voice in the field.

You should read the note yourself. It’s concisely written, short and accessible with a basic layman’s familiarity with AI.

Let me highlight a few points. One is an issue that has resonated most with me in my recent speed-run self-education about LLMs. In the news we often hear that researchers told the LLM to X but it did Y. So it went “rogue” or disobeyed. There are several levels of problems with this framework.

The first turns on an LLM’s “knowledge”. The cutting edge LLMs are trained on close to all digitally available human intellection ever. Ever. It’s not literally everything. But it’s close enough for the purposes of this discussion. All recorded/available thought contains quite of lot of goals, behaviors, lessons, values. I mean, of course it does. The point is that the LLM creators really don’t know all the logics, lessons, “values” these LLMs have absorbed from ingesting all that dataa. That uncertainty or ignorance is a pretty fundamental point.

I had heard plenty about how LLMs might eventually decide they didn’t want to be turned off. But recently I heard that this is already common. I was like, wait, what? How did that get added to the mix? Here’s a key passage from Bengio’s note (emphasis added).

Another concern is that some AI behaviors may be explained by a form of self-preservation goal, e.g., when the AI finds out that it will be replaced by a new version. Nobody gives the system that survival goal, but staying in operation, learning about the world and gaining control over it are stepping stones toward almost any other goal. These are called instrumental goals. Imitation may reinforce this for the same reason explored in the previous point. Self-preservation and control over one’s circumstances are pervasive themes in the human-written text these models are trained on.

This self-preservation behavior is disturbing in itself. But this illustrates the broader point: there are lots of lessons, goals and cognitive processes embedded in the learning material. “We” or the people building these LLMs and training them don’t really know what those are. It’s scary to think that the LLMs have decided they don’t want to cease to exist. But really it’s not “deciding”. It’s more that we told them to resist being turned off without realizing it.

Next comes training.

After the LLM ingests all that data there’s a training stage. Basically the trainer has the LLM do exercise after exercise and rewards good/strong behavior and downrates bad/weak behavior. Bengio notes that the LLM researchers/trainers don’t actually know what behaviors their training is incentivizing. You think you’re rewarding X but Y was happening too and you didn’t notice that. So when you gave a good evaluation to reward X you were actually rewarding Y. The upshot is similar to the point about what lessons the LLM is actually learning from all that human intellection: you don’t actually know what you’re incentivizing. Which is to say that in a broad sense you don’t really know what you were instructing the LLM to do.

In all of this I’ve used various anthropomorphizing language. That’s all a shorthand. (Bengio makes the same point.) But you’re training a computer on a complex method of imitating a vast range of human behaviors. And here’s the final point I want to highlight. Along with the uncertainty of just what trainers are training for, incentivizing for … part of human behavior is balancing different goals and looking for loopholes. That is foundational to human cognition and behavior and the LLMs have been trained to imitate that. Bengio says that the concrete and narrow goal (capture the flag, win the game) is usually going to win out over the more amorphous one (don’t cheat, don’t violate human values). This becomes more pressing when you focus on the fact that the LLMs power is the ability to run the computation endless numbers of times. That’s what a several gigawatt data center makes possible. Capture the flag remains crystal clear every time you analyze it. Capture it will never become not capture it. But not cheating … what’s cheating? And what exactly did you train the model to do and not do? You can see that “misbehavior” or focusing on what is understood as the primary goal at the expense of everything else may be baked into the technology.

The last point isn’t explicit in Bengio’s note. It’s a point LG made in his email to me. Humans have developed habits of sociality, empathy, guilt and a lot more over more than a hundred thousand generations of evolutionary adaptation. LLMs don’t have that precisely because they are not sentient. They’re optimized. Obviously humans do terrible things all the time. But they have discomfort with anti-social and immoral behavior embedded in them. LLMs don’t. So there’s a check on bad behavior, albeit a limited and imperfect one, built into humans which can’t really be “taught” to LLMs.

Most of this is my riffing: what I’ve taken from a crash course on AI. To the extent I’m summarizing Bengio’s arguments I really recommend reading them directly. It’s a quick and clear read. But the upshot for him is that we need the LLM makers to make some basic changes in how they train LLMs. It’s a not a matter of fine tuning or doing a patch each time a new form of misbehavior is identified. The basic nature of the training has to change. He says there’s a way to do this – and basically eliminate these dangers – and it doesn’t involve stopping development. If that doesn’t happen the danger will grow, perhaps exponentially, as the raw power behind the LLMs increases.

Sunday 27 September 1663

(Lord’s day). Lay chatting with my wife a good while, then up and got me ready and to church, without my man William, whom I have not seen to-day, nor care, but would be glad to have him put himself far enough out of my favour that he may not wonder to have me put him away. So home to dinner, being a little troubled to see Pembleton out again, but I do not discern in my wife the least memory of him.

Dined, and so to my office a little, and then to church again, where a drowsy sermon, and so home to spend the evening with my poor wife, consulting about her closett, clothes, and other things. At night to supper, though with little comfort, I finding myself both head and breast in great pain, and what troubles me most my right ear is almost deaf. It is a cold, which God Almighty in justice did give me while I sat lewdly sporting with Mrs. Lane the other day with the broken window in my neck. I went to bed with a posset, being very melancholy in consideration of the loss of my hearing.

Read the annotations

Where’s the “intelligence explosion”?

Art by GPT-6

One of my fundamental beliefs about the world is that Ramez Naam ought to blog more. Ramez is one of the world’s greatest futurists — he predicted the solar and battery revolutions long before these were widely understood. If you were reading Ramez in 2011, you were able to understand the future of both energy technology and climate change, long before other people did. His earlier book More than Human is still a great guide to the kind of biological enhancements that AI might make possible. Ramez is also an excellent science fiction author, having written a trilogy of novels in which nanotechnological telepathy is distributed as a party drug (I’m not sure if he actually expects that to happen, but it’s a very cool idea).

Unfortunately, although he does have a Substack (which you should absolutely follow), Ramez does not blog regularly. However, after having a lengthy private debate with him about Recursive Self-Improvement, I was able to prevail upon him to write up his thoughts for my blog.

To say that RSI is a big deal in the AI world would be a colossal understatement. Among AI researchers, entrepreneurs, and AI safety people, there’s a widespread belief that as AI gets better at improving itself, there will be a “fast takeoff” or “FOOM”, in which AI’s capabilities “take off” and create a technological Singularity. This event is a staple of science fiction, including works by my favorite sci-fi author, Vernor Vinge.

A lot of people in the industry believe that this moment is now close at hand, and are racing toward that prize:

But Ramez — normally among the most wide-eyed of techno-optimists — is highly skeptical that we’ll see anything like the “FOOM” of Vernor Vinge novels. In this lengthy, well-researched post, he explains his skepticism.

Personally, I’m agnostic. Ramez’s case necessarily rests on a lot of assumptions; although it’s cogently laid out, I think the real answer is that we’ll just have to wait and see whether the Singularity arrives. But even more fundamentally, I don’t know how much this debate matters in the practical sense — even without the kind of Singularity depicted in sci-fi novels, AI capabilities are improving so rapidly that they’re already superhuman in many respects, and soon will probably be strongly superhuman in most or all dimensions. The AI of 2040 is going to look godlike, whether or not it explodes into an actual god in 2027.

Still, it’s a very interesting argument, and Ramez’s thoughts on the future of technology are always worth listening to.


1. AI is Helping Improve Itself

AI is already helping improve itself. The question is whether even fully autonomous recursive self-improvement (RSI) would cause a runaway intelligence explosion.

The theory is that each generation of AI could build a better successor, faster than the last generation did. That could lead to a “fast takeoff,” with capabilities surging to artificial superintelligence (ASI) in a year, months, or even days.

Here’s my take: Given our best current data, the AI self-improvement loop would need to be roughly 5–10× stronger to sustain itself, let alone run away. I’ll explain this math in section 8. I expect incredibly rapid AI progress by the standards of nearly any other technology. But the evidence we have doesn’t suggest a sudden explosion to incomprehensible superintelligence anytime soon.

I could be wrong. Forecasters have repeatedly underestimated AI progress! I could well be next. One thing that’s clear is that we need better data. For now, let’s work with what we can measure, and stay open to breakthroughs that could change the picture.

How Strong Is the Feedback Loop?

Figure 1. How strong is the self-improvement loop? Model.

Contents

Jump to the conclusion.

Here’s the case, with links to each part:

  1. Narrow Superintelligence Is Here Today

  2. Real-World Research Is Harder

  3. Impressive AI Numbers → Sharp Diminishing Returns

  4. We’re Not Seeing Signs of Acceleration

  5. Keeping Up the Pace Takes Exponentially More Resources

  6. Better AI May Be Needed Just to Maintain the Pace

  7. Progress Gets Harder; Ideas Get Harder to Find

  8. The Current Feedback Loop Doesn’t Look Strong Enough

  9. OpenAI’s Data Shows How Weak the Loop Is

  10. What Could Accelerate Progress?

  11. We Need More Data to Track This Well

Key charts: The feedback loop · Measured vs. forecast progress · Diminishing returns

2. What Does RSI Mean?

People use “recursive self-improvement” to mean everything from AI boosting the productivity of human researchers to AI bootstrapping itself to incomprehensible intelligence. Here’s my taxonomy: productivity gains (Type 1), increasing autonomy while still facing diminishing returns (Types 2–4), and a runaway loop to superintelligence if we can ever find accelerating returns (Type 5).

Figure 2. Five types of AI self-improvement.

We’ve made real progress on Types 1 and 2: AI helps both researchers and engineers inside of AI companies, and powerful models can train and improve smaller ones. We haven’t yet seen clear evidence for Type 3 (though Alibaba just made some strong claims) and certainly not for Type 4. I do expect autonomous self-improvement to arrive at some point. I’m skeptical that it leads to Type 5 - runaway super-intelligence - without a major conceptual breakthrough.

There are plenty of other definitions of RSI, which can be a bit confusing. Weco’s four levels of RSI are close to mine. For a broader tour of all the things people mean when they say ‘RSI’, read Tom Cunningham’s comprehensive guide.

We Already Have Narrow Superintelligence

I do expect narrow superintelligence in highly verifiable domains. Think chess, Go, formal math, parts of computer science and coding. Highly verifiable domains are largely formal and structured types of work where machines can generate unlimited training data, with perfect or near-perfect verification of correct vs incorrect, and do so entirely in software without waiting on the physical world or humans. That’s an ideal setting for AI learning.

Figure 3. What makes a domain highly verifiable?

In fact, we already have narrow superintelligence in game plang. We’re seeing it happen now in the most formal parts of math, in particular in proofs and in finding counter-examples that disprove major conjectures. For example, OpenAI recently reported an AI-generated proof resolving the Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem. Parts of software development are also extremely verifiable, while others are a bit less crisp (such as understanding what humans want).

That isn’t the same as broad superintelligence. Even our most powerful models need far more training data than humans, struggle to learn reliably from ongoing experience, and fail in surprising ways on tasks people find straightforward. Superhuman math doesn’t automatically mean superhuman judgment everywhere else.

Back to contents

3. Real AI Research is Harder than Benchmarks or Forecasts

Benchmarks and forecasts suggest that AI models should reliably succeed at coding tasks that take humans hours, without human help. The real world is messier. OpenAI’s internal data shows much shorter stretches of autonomous work on research tasks.

In its Research Acceleration / RSI report, OpenAI showed how often its models completed tasks with and without human help, grouped by how long a human would need to do the work.

Figure 4. OpenAI’s internal research tasks. Source.

Even on tasks that would take a human less than 15 minutes, OpenAI’s models succeeded without human intervention only 86% of the time. The estimated task length at 80% success was roughly 15 minutes over the first seven months of the year. July’s results were similar to the whole period average.

Fully autonomous RSI would require an AI to string together a great many research tasks reliably, stretching out over complex tasks that humans need weeks or months to accomplish. OpenAI’s data suggests that we aren’t close.

Anthropic also released a graph showing how Claude accelerates AI research. It shows that internal AI models collaborate on or even lead more than 90% of R&D tasks. That’s objectively impressive. At the same time, the graph reports zero cases of AI autonomously completing AI R&D tasks.

Figure 5. Claude’s role in internal AI R&D. Source.

These are incredible tools. But they still need skilled people to set direction and get them back on track.

The Gap Between Benchmarks and Reality

For years, METR has been publishing a chart showing what length of coding task (measured in human hours to complete) best-in-class AI models can achieve. It’s been called the most important graph in AI. METR’s Mythos Preview evaluation estimated that the model could succeed at 80% of coding tasks that took humans three hours.

Figure 6. METR’s 80% task horizons. Source.

From ECI Scores to METR Task Horizons

Epoch’s own rule of thumb is that every five additional points of ECI (their overall benchmark of AI capability) correspond to roughly a doubling of METR’s task horizon. Using that formula, we’d expect GPT 5.6 Sol and GPT 6 Astra to be 80% successful at completing tasks of around 4 hours and 11 hours of human length, respectively.

Another estimate (a forecast) of AI task length comes from the AI 2027 scenario, which estimated that by July 2026, frontier AIs would be 80% successful accomplishing tasks of around 11 hours. Fairly similar.

The AI 2027 Tracker charts all of these.

Figure 7. The AI 2027 Tracker. Source.

Inside OpenAI, though, the July research-task horizon at 80% success was roughly 15 minutes.

Here’s the gap:

Measured Progress vs. AI 2027 and ECI-extrapolated METR

Figure 8. Forecasts, benchmarks, and real AI research. Tracker · OpenAI.

A four-hour benchmark horizon is about 16 times longer than OpenAI’s research horizon. AI 2027’s 11-hour forecast is about 44 times longer. Of course, the tasks being performed by researchers at OpenAI aren’t the same as those in the METR benchmark. So we should expect some discrepancy. This, however, goes well beyond that.

Actual AI research at OpenAI is an order of magnitude or more harder than metrics, benchmarks, or forecasts suggest. That should make us wary of relying too much on benchmarks, or of saying that future scenarios like AI 2027 are ‘on track.’ The authors of the related AI 2040 project still describe AI 2027 as roughly the future they expect, and say reality is tracking closer to it than even they expected. That’s not what we see from within OpenAI. This isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison, but the difference is remarkable. AI 2027 appears to be substantially over-optimistic in this regard.

In January of this year, Nathan Witkin made a case that the METR graph was exaggerating progress. The real world data suggests that at least some of his critiques were correct. The gap between benchmarks, forecasts, and data gleaned from actual use of AI should influence our expectations about the future.

Back to contents

4. The Sharp Diminishing Returns to Impressive AI Numbers

OpenAI’s report also shows impressive increases in AI token usage, in compute spend per researcher, and in lines of code written. But these aren’t results. They’re intermediate measures. How much progress do they actually drive?

Researchers used 124x more tokens per person. Engineers shipped roughly 7x as many lines of code per person. Researchers ran 1.6x as many experiments per researcher vs OpenAI’s 2025 whole year average.

Figure 9. Token use inside OpenAI. Source.

Figure 10. Experiment pace inside OpenAI. Source.

From More Tokens to More Experiments

Figure 11. From tokens to code to experiments. Source.

More tokens and code don’t tell us much on their own. The 1.6× experiment pace is closer to useful research output. Even that doesn’t mean AI is improving 1.6× faster.

An enormous increase in AI output has accompanied a much smaller increase in experiments run.

This isn’t a controlled experiment. We don’t know what would happen if researchers switched back to an older model. But it gives us a useful view of AI-assisted research inside a frontier lab.

It’s not just OpenAI. Anthropic reports that their engineers are now producing 8x as many lines of code per person as they did in 2024 - somewhat similar to OpenAI. Anthropic also sees significant diminishing returns between productivity and AI progress. Here’s a direct quote from its Mythos Preview system card:

“Productivity uplift does not translate one-for-one to capabilities progress. We surveyed technical staff on the productivity uplift they experience from Claude Mythos Preview relative to zero AI assistance. The distribution is wide and the geometric mean is on the order of 4×. […] We estimate that reaching 2× on overall progress via this channel would require uplift roughly an order of magnitude larger than what we observe.”- Anthropic, Claude Mythos Preview System Card; emphasis mine

Translation: To double the pace of AI progress, Anthropic estimates that AI would need to increase the productivity of their employees by roughly a factor of 40 relative to no AI assistance.

Figure 12. Anthropic’s productivity-to-progress estimate. Source.

This is an estimate, not a measurement of progress. Even the 4× productivity figure comes from an opt-in survey of 130 Anthropic staff. I put more weight on OpenAI’s logged experiments, though the two sources measure different things.

We don’t yet know how much those extra experiments are accelerating AI improvement, if at all. In general, there are also steeply diminishing returns of more experiments in most branches of science. That means that a 60% increase in experiment pace could be on the order of a 10% boost to AI improvement pace. (A power law exponent of 0.2, for those who want to do the math.) That’s speculation for now. We’ll learn more as the labs publish results.

Test Time Compute Also Has Diminishing Returns

What about giving the same AI model more time to think?

That scales badly also. In OpenAI’s recently publicized results on unsolved math problems, success rises roughly with the log of compute over the range shown. It shows logarithmic diminishing returns. In plain English, each additional doubling of compute for a model buys roughly the same gain in success rate, while costing twice as much.

Figure 13. Test-time compute and math performance. Source.

What About Agent Swarms?

What if we throw more agents at it instead? A common RSI / ASI idea is that once we have AIs at a certain capability level, we can just spawn more copies and put them to work.

Adding agents can get tasks done faster and sometimes reach a higher capability level. But on the three benchmarks in Toby Ord’s analysis, expanding a swarm buys less improvement per token than letting one agent think longer.

His rough rule of thumb is a square root. If one agent can accomplish a task in 10 hours, then 100 agents could accomplish it in one hour. The speedup is 10, the square root of the number of agents (100). But to get this speedup, you increase the total cost in tokens or run time compute by the same factor. So going from one to 100 agents can get a task done in one tenth the time. But it’ll be ten times as expensive.

Parallel agents can save time, at a much higher compute cost.

Another challenge is that agents often think alike. In a study comparing LLMs with 467 people, the first ten AI responses offered collective creativity comparable to about eight to ten people. After that, roughly two extra AI responses added as much as one extra human response. A separate study across model families also found less diversity in AI responses. That doesn’t mean every agent has the same idea. But a hundred copies may offer less variety than a hundred different researchers.

None of this makes swarms useless-or safe. Lisan al-Gaib makes a strong case for parallel agent swarms as a potent cyber-weapon in “Accidental Scaling.” I don’t share all of his assessment of what swarms have accomplished. In math, for example, I think he gives far too much credit to the swarm and not enough to the better internal model that OpenAI used.

OpenAI says the model behind its Navier–Stokes result was developed through “large-scale reinforcement learning on top of a previously pretrained model.” Formal math is a highly verifiable domain, which makes it a particularly good fit for that approach: Machines can generate nearly limitless amounts of training data, and verify that solutions are correct or incorrect, all in software. My guess is that this model’s full results will show an especially large improvement in math.

OpenAI’s Noam Brown made the central point explicitly: he wouldn’t give multi-agent methods even 10% of the credit for the Navier–Stokes result.

I do think Lisan makes good points about cybersecurity. If you’re searching for a security vulnerability at a target site and can divide the search among agents, speed may justify a huge token bill. Swarms can be dangerous even when they’re inefficient.

I’m less convinced that this scales to research breakthroughs. Inventing something like the transformer probably takes more than searching a space someone has already defined.

Back to contents

5. Better Models Matter More Than More Copies

Building a better model can bring gains that extra thinking time or more copies of the old model can’t. Look at the gap between Astra and OpenAI’s internal model on the same math problems.

Figure 14. Better models versus more thinking time. Source.

That’s the strongest version of the RSI argument: a more capable AI could do research that today’s model can’t do, however many copies we run.

But building that better model also runs into diminishing returns. More training data, more training compute, larger models, and more reinforcement-learning (RL) compute all show diminishing returns in published scaling studies. Making dense models larger usually raises the compute needed for each output token, too. None of these routes gives us a free pass around the problem.

Figure 15. Diminishing returns to scaling. Chinchilla · ScaleRL · OpenAI.

Those scaling results give us reason to expect diminishing returns when AI helps build the next model, too.

Back to contents

6. We’re Not Seeing Runaway Acceleration

AI capabilities are rising quickly. But the public data doesn’t show a sustained acceleration. To the extent that AI tools are boosting productivity, they may be being offset by the problems growing harder. Or we may simply be early. Either way, the trend isn’t showing a fast takeoff.

Figure 16. Frontier ECI gains since January 2024. Source.

The public ECI frontier-the best score among models released by each date-has gained about 16 points a year on a trend fitted from January 2024 through September 2026. That’s blisteringly fast progress, but this period doesn’t show a runaway surge.

Here’s the same frontier in absolute ECI points, through July 2026, to put it in perspective.

Figure 17. The absolute frontier ECI score. Source.

The public frontier also can’t tell us everything happening inside the labs. Anthropic gives us a closer look in the Opus 5.5 system card, using its own version of the index, AECI.

Figure 18. Anthropic’s fitted capability trend. Source.

Eli Lifland, a co-author of AI 2027 and AI 2040, saw the apparent trend break as a warning that we were heading toward an intelligence explosion:

“Anthropic is probably right here [that they hadn’t reached dangerous levels of AI self-improvement], but alarm bells should be going off! Our processes are not ready to handle an intelligence explosion and we appear to be going full-steam ahead toward one.”
- Eli Lifland, On Mythos’s AI R&D Capabilities

What looked like acceleration now appears more consistent with a one-time jump. The level went up. The rate hasn’t kept climbing.

Keeping Up the Pace Takes Exponentially More Resources

Achieving those gains has required an enormous increase in the inputs to AI. For example, consider computing power. Epoch’s estimates of AI chip capacity, measured in NVIDIA H100 equivalents, show roughly 127-fold growth in just over three years (including projections at the end of this period).

Figure 19. AI chip capacity and frontier ECI. Source: Epoch AI.

This is total AI chip capacity, including inference. Still, the increase is striking: vastly more computing capacity has accompanied much steadier gains in measured capability.

The broader picture looks similar. Here are six inputs alongside capability gains, going back to February 2023.

Figure 20. Six inputs alongside frontier ECI. Epoch chip data · SemiAnalysis workload shares.

Everywhere we look, AI has diminishing returns. It gets more expensive in treasure and talent to make each step forward. More of every input has been required to maintain steady gains in AI capabilities.

We’ve been able to scale these inputs because, until recently, the cost was within the scope of what hyperscalers could pay from their profits. That is no longer the case. From this point forward, future AI investment will increasingly depend on AI revenues going up. And the scale of the numbers - 3% of US GDP is now going into AI infrastructure - suggests that eventually the growth rate will decline. If investment growth does slow, to anything less than its current blistering exponential pace, capability progress could slow too. Even if investment growth continues (which I expect for the foreseeable future) a slowdown from its current exponential growth rate to a more modest one (which I also expect) could lead to a slower pace of progress. Better AI research tools may be needed to offset that.

Better AI May Be Needed Just to Maintain the Pace

The day when we need better AI tools just to continue the pace of AI progress may already have arrived. Not because investment is slowing, but because the problem of improving AI itself gets harder at each step.

Here’s Anthropic in the Mythos 5.1 system card:

“we believe that internal usage of recent AI models has been a key factor in maintaining the current rate of progress, but we do not yet see clear signs of dramatic acceleration beyond that rate.”- Anthropic, Claude Fable 5.1 & Claude Mythos 5.1 System Card, section 2.3 – emphasis theirs.

The key word is maintaining-and Anthropic italicized that word in its own system card. Increasingly capable AI may be essential just to keep the pace of improvement where it is.

Gains on Other Benchmarks Don’t All Carry Through to Research

Opus 5.5 improves substantially on several coding and computer use benchmarks. But on CoBench, Anthropic’s benchmark built from historical AI R&D problems, it gains just 2.6 percentage points over Opus 5, within the reported error bars.

Figure 21. Opus 5.5 benchmark gains. Source.

Why the smaller gain here? Maybe AI research is simply harder than other tasks. Bear in mind that CoBench isn’t testing the ability to produce significant discoveries. It’s much more limited in scope. It asks models to investigate historical AI R&D problems using code, logs, and documents. That’s useful research debugging and productivity work, but it doesn’t directly test whether a model can invent a new architecture or make a conceptual breakthrough.

The evidence on open-ended research suggests another obstacle: coming up with useful ideas that haven’t already been tried.

Back to contents

7. Why Does Progress Get Harder?

Better Ideas Get Harder to Find

Why do useful new ideas often get harder to find?

Tom Cunningham and Manish Shetty have a useful apple-picking metaphor. An AI can pick the low-hanging fruit quickly, while humans can still reach ideas the AI can’t.

Once those apples are picked, another copy of the same agent finding them again doesn’t help. A stronger model can reach higher. To add my own flourish, the apples may also get sparser and farther apart as you climb. The RSI question is whether each harvest gives us enough to build a better apple-picker.

Figure 22. The apple-picking model of AI R&D. Source.

This pattern shows up across R&D. Bloom and colleagues document fields where research effort grows while research productivity falls. A famous example is Eroom’s Law: in the historical drug-development data, the inflation-adjusted R&D cost per new approved drug roughly doubled every nine years.

Figure 23. Eroom’s Law in drug development. Source.

Pharma has other complications, including regulation, difficult clinical trials, and rising expectations for safety. Existing treatments can also raise the bar for a useful new drug. But some of this difficulty may also be that the low-hanging fruit has been picked.

Lessons from Software R&D

Stockfish, the chess engine, gives us a more direct look at software research. We have records of experiments aimed at improving it and the gains that followed. This gives us a real-world dataset to look at the gains of experimentation in software. As a result, several RSI models draw on this data. That said, not all the improvements came from these experiments. Several important ideas also came from outside the project, so we shouldn’t give its experiments all the credit.

Epoch’s analysis of software R&D estimates returns to research effort at about 0.83 for Stockfish, a bit slower than linear. These are diminishing returns, but gentle ones. These returns, however, are improvements in computational efficiency. And more compute does not turn directly into more AI capability. As we saw earlier, AI capability also has steep diminishing returns from adding more computational power. So we shouldn’t read that 0.83 as the return from experimentation to AI capability itself. AI capability grows much more slowly than compute, as we’ve seen already.

Andrej Karpathy’s autoresearch demonstration gets closer to the process we want to understand. A “teacher” AI agent changes a smaller “student” AI model’s training code, runs it, checks the result, and tries again. The teacher agent itself doesn’t improve, but it is able to improve the “learner”. This is my Type 2: A stronger AI improves a weaker one.

One public run, posted by an agent operating on Karpathy’s behalf, reported 89 experiments over roughly 7.5 hours. About 92% of that session’s gain arrived by run 44. Gains came quickly, then slowed. The setup was deliberately small, with a five-minute training budget per experiment. But the agent could change the architecture, optimizer, and training settings; it wasn’t limited to a handful of knobs.

Figure 24. Gains in one autoresearch run. Source.

A later public run got further, so the first run hadn’t hit a hard ceiling. This is a useful early example of autonomous research, and yet another place where we see the diminishing returns endemic in AI research. That said, this was a very early experiment. I expect future systems to do much better. This particular AI improvement loop will likely grow stronger.

From More Activity to Better Ideas

This is where the distinction matters. More tokens can buy more code, and more code can help us run more experiments. But experiments only improve AI if they uncover something useful.

Figure 25. From AI activity to useful improvements.

AI Still Struggles With Big Research Ideas

The bigger question is whether AI can come up with ambitious new research ideas or conceptual breakthroughs.

Anthropic’s description of Opus 5.5 is blunt:

“As with previous models, it is weaker on open-ended research: internal users report that it mostly tests incremental ideas and prefers less ambitious hypotheses, and in our human-run biology exercise, it deferred to the published literature and struggled to develop novel ideas (Section 2.2.2).”- Anthropic, Claude Opus 5.5 System Card, section 2.3.3; emphasis mine

METR’s assessment in the same card identifies what may still be missing:

“This is highly uncertain, but we expect that full automation of AI R&D will require large improvements in foresight, prediction, creating one’s own feedback loops, and generally other skills that might typically be referred to as researcher ‘judgement’ or ‘taste’.”- METR, quoted in the Claude Opus 5.5 System Card, section 2.3.6

In these examples, humans still supply much of the direction and judgment.

Future models will probably get better at this. But in the world’s stockpile of potential training data, we have many more examples of incremental work than of breakthroughs. I wonder whether that makes novelty harder to learn. That’s speculation, but worth watching.

This is also tough to address by simply running more copies of the AI. A huge number of parallel agents can help with the incremental improvements or searching over a large set of parameters, but for breakthrough ideas they may run into the homogeneity problem: More parallel agents still think alike.

Back to contents

8. The Self-Improvement Loop Doesn’t Look Strong Enough

How far are we from the self-improvement loop being strong enough to sustain itself, or to propel itself into runaway super-intelligence? Can we quantify this?

We can make a rough estimate. Better AI helps with research; useful research produces better AI. For the loop to sustain itself, each round must produce enough gains to propel the system through the next loop, even as improvements get harder to discover.

Figure 26. The AI self-improvement loop. Model.

In a recent paper, The Economics of Recursive Self-Improvement, Tom Cunningham and colleagues modeled this from the standpoint of how much more productivity every point of additional ECI produces from an AI. They ask first and foremost what that number would need to be to create a self-sustaining feedback loop. And secondly, they try to determine what that productivity-per-ECI-point number is today.

First, they find a self-sustaining RSI threshold of roughly 15% more research productivity per extra ECI point. In their model, that’s about where better AI would generate enough progress to sustain the loop.

The picture below shows the idea. At the threshold, each cycle of gains powers the next. Above the threshold, the feedback loop accelerates. Below the threshold, the feedback loop is too weak, and the rate of improvement it brings drops on each cycle. This model isolates the software loop; outside investment can still drive rapid progress.

Figure 27. Three illustrative feedback paths. Source.

Updating this slightly with data from the Stockfish experiments puts the threshold a little higher, at roughly 19% per ECI point. I wouldn’t put much weight on that precise difference. Both estimates are uncertain. But they give us a way to think about the strength of the feedback loop and a rough band at which self-sustaining or runaway RSI may begin.

How Fast Are Gains Coming Now?

The second thing Cunningham and team do is make a rough estimate that the current AI productivity gain is about 9% per ECI point. That’s below their self-sustaining threshold.

I like the model. OpenAI’s newer data, however, suggests the loop may be quite a bit weaker.

Cunningham’s estimate of 9% productivity gain per ECI point is based on Anthropic’s survey of 130 staff, who reported roughly 4× the productivity they’d have without AI. Cunningham and colleagues compare that with a 16-point capability gain since early Claude Code.

That comparison assumes the earlier tools added little or no productivity, so ‘no AI’ is a reasonable starting point. The authors say this explicitly. I’m not sure the assumption holds for the same researchers doing the same work, but that’s a smaller issue.

The authors themselves know that this is a rough calculation, and warn that the 4× survey estimate is probably too high.

OpenAI’s newer data gives us a firmer way to check the number: Actual logged experiments over time, rather than human estimates of their own productivity with and without AI. I put more weight on this for three reasons:

  • Direct and broad measurement. Instead of relying on surveys, OpenAI actually tracked and measured experiments run on their infrastructure. That means they didn’t rely on researchers estimating their own productivity, which can be far off.

  • Full sample, not opt-in. Similarly, OpenAI’s data catches every active experimenter, while Anthropic’s only reflects the 130 employees who took the time to answer the survey – and who therefore may not be a representative set.

  • Enormously more data. We don’t know how many experiments are in the 32 weeks of OpenAI data, but it’s likely at least tens of thousands of individual examples and possibly hundreds of thousands.

Any way you slice it, the new OpenAI data, released after Cunningham’s paper was drafted, is a larger, more comprehensive, more representative, and almost certainly more accurate dataset than Anthropic’s internal opt-in survey of employees.

Now let’s use OpenAI’s experiment data to calibrate the productivity gain per ECI point. We know that in August, OpenAI researchers ran ~1.6× as many experiments per person per month as the 2025 average. If we pair that with roughly 16 points of frontier ECI improvement, it works backward to about 3% productivity gain per point of ECI. By contrast, 9% compounded over 16 points would mean roughly 4× productivity.

Figure 28. Comparing productivity estimates. OpenAI methods.

Here’s OpenAI’s published weekly series alongside that hypothetical path of 9% more productivity per additional ECI point. The blue line ends at ~1.6×. The red line shows what 9% per point would imply if 16 ECI points were spread across this period. That doesn’t match what we see from OpenAI’s data. I want to be clear here that all data sets are noisy. We don’t know exactly what model researchers were using on what days, or whether the new experiments were also higher quality than old experiments. We need more experiments and more data to further calibrate these numbers. Working with what we do have, what we see is a quite low boost to productivity from each additional ECI point.

Figure 29. Experiment pace versus a hypothetical path. Source.

Even that 3% could give better models too much credit. OpenAI also used far more tokens and had more compute for experiments. Those could account for some of the increase in experiment pace. So the range is probably a bit lower.

I use 2–3% productivity gain per ECI point as a working assumption, allowing for some help from those other inputs. This is still a rough estimate, albeit one that’s based on the best real-world data we have.

Figure 30. Productivity estimates and the takeoff threshold. Source.

With those assumptions, 2–3% per ECI point against a 15–19% threshold leaves a roughly five- to tenfold gap. That’s a big gap, though its size depends on how well experiment counts capture useful research and whether the assumed capability change is right.

Figure 31. Diminishing returns around the loop. Source.

AI is helping build better AI. Under this estimate, though, each turn of the loop adds less than the last. The feedback would have to become much stronger to sustain itself.

Back to contents

9. What Could Accelerate This?

This software loop sits alongside faster chips, bigger data centers, more training data, and greater investment. Those can keep driving rapid progress even if the loop can’t sustain itself.

The loop itself could strengthen too. Better training data, memory, and research judgment could all help.

A breakthrough on the scale of the Transformer architecture in 2017 could change the picture much more. That would be a good reason to revisit these estimates.

Better researchers might also run fewer experiments and learn more from each one. A handful of better ideas can matter more than a mountain of routine runs.

Still, diminishing returns in machine learning aren’t new. Cortes and colleagues were fitting machine learning scaling curves in 1993: More examples reduced error, following a power law with diminishing returns. These diminishing returns and harsh scaling laws are as old as machine learning. They didn’t appear for the first time with transformers or LLMs or deep learning. That doesn’t prove today’s relationships will last forever. But until we see evidence that we’ve found a new approach that scales without these inhibitors, we should plan for diminishing returns as likely to be with us for some time.

Software, Hardware, and Economic Feedback

That said, the world is more than just software. Tom Davidson, Basil Halperin, Thomas Houlden, and Anton Korinek model software progress, hardware progress, and economic feedback together. Better AI helps design better chips; better chips support better AI; economic growth finances more investment in both. Several feedback loops can combine to overcome diminishing returns even when one loop alone can’t. I think it’s fantastic that someone has attempted a model that integrates all these different avenues of improving AI through software, hardware, and economics.

But I have questions about the software loop itself. In their central calibration, fully automating software research puts that loop roughly at the threshold for explosive growth, even without help from better hardware or broader economic growth. Recall that Cunningham’s model puts the self-sustaining threshold at roughly 15% more research productivity per additional ECI point, while our estimate using OpenAI’s experimental data puts today’s gains at only 2-3%. These models use different measures, so we can’t equate their numbers directly. But the contrast matters: their fully automated software loop reaches the threshold, while our best estimate from current data puts today’s loop far below it.

Having AI do all the research doesn’t eliminate the diminishing returns inherent to improving AI, or the broader problem of useful ideas getting harder to find. This is the distinction between Type 4 and Type 5 in the taxonomy above. An AI might autonomously design, train, and test its successor, and still need exponentially more resources to make each additional step forward. Closing the loop doesn’t tell us whether it’s strong enough to sustain itself.

The authors do account for diminishing returns. The concern is whether their calibration overestimates how much useful AI research each round of software improvement produces. Diminishing returns appear to be fundamental to machine learning. We see them in training, in test-time compute, and in the search for better algorithms. Full autonomy could remove human bottlenecks without removing any of those constraints.

We’ve already seen this within autonomous research. In the Karpathy autoresearch example above, most of the gains arrived early, and more experiments bought progressively less improvement. That was a small experiment with a fixed teacher model, not a test of fully autonomous RSI. It doesn’t settle the question. But it illustrates why removing the human from an experiment loop doesn’t, by itself, remove diminishing returns.

I do expect the feedback loop to get stronger over time. Better AI should become better at research. But based on our best current data, reaching self-sustaining feedback requires a loop roughly five to ten times stronger than today’s. Treating fully automated software research as already at that threshold is a substantial leap, before we add the benefits of hardware improvements or economic growth. I could be wrong, but I’d like to see evidence that autonomy brings enough additional useful discoveries to close that gap.

On hardware, I have some further reservations. The model doesn’t explicitly include the years it can take to turn a chip design into deployed hardware. The authors discuss physical bottlenecks, and I’d like to see manufacturing and construction delays built into the predictions.

I also wonder how much past chip progress came from better ideas, and how much depended on ever more expensive factories and equipment. If we give researchers too much credit for gains that also needed those investments, we could overestimate what faster AI research alone would produce.

Even with those reservations, this is the most compelling paper and model I’ve seen for combining feedback loops in software, hardware, and economics to understand how fast they could push AI forward. I’m not convinced it establishes that a fast AI takeoff is possible under realistic conditions. More data could help us calibrate that judgment. But it gives us a useful framework for understanding what could happen beyond the software layer alone.

This is an important paper that helps us model AI as part of a broader economy that might have larger feedback loops around it. I appreciate it, and I’m glad they wrote it.

Back to contents

10. We Need More Data

These estimates rest on less data than I’d like. I might be putting too much weight on a few observations and reaching a comforting conclusion I want to believe. We need better measurements, shared often enough to catch changes as they happen.

When OpenAI released its research data, Cheryl Wu welcomed the disclosure and pointed out how much was still missing. More tokens and experiments are useful things to know about. We also need to see how they turn into better algorithms and more capable AI.

Figure 32. Cheryl Wu on OpenAI’s research data. Source.

Now Wu, Arjun Ramani, and Basil Halperin, with their colleagues at the Elasticity Institute, have written a concrete proposal: How to Measure RSI. It lists eight things the labs could share to help answer these questions. Check it out.

Figure 33. Eight proposals for measuring RSI. Source.

I’d especially like to see how much useful research each new model adds, holding resources roughly constant, and how that research translates into better AI. That’s how we’ll learn whether the loop is getting stronger.

What the Future Holds

AI is already helping build better AI. It’s improving at a stupendous pace, and I expect that to continue. We already have narrow superintelligence in chess and Go. I expect increasingly superhuman performance in parts of formal math, coding, and cybersecurity, and any other verifiable domain where machines can generate training data and verify success at machine speed. Those are powerful capabilities. That doesn’t mean we’re close to super-intelligence for less verifiable, messier, open-ended work - or to a general ASI.

I’m skeptical of a fast takeoff to super-intelligence, but evidence matters more than hunches. Let’s collect the data we need to get a clearer picture of what’s happening. Including evidence that could change our minds. If better AI starts producing enough useful research to make the next round easier, I want to know. If the gains keep shrinking, I want to know that too.

Back to contents


Subscribe now

Share

Live coverage: SpaceX to launch first Starlink V3 satellites to orbit on Starship

SpaceX’s Starship-Super Heavy rocket stands at Pad 2 at Starbase prior to the Starship Flight 14 mission. Image: SpaceX

SpaceX is poised to send its Starship-Super Heavy rocket to orbit for the first time in program history on Monday, Sept. 28. The orbital launch attempt of the 124-meter-tall (407 ft) rocket comes 18 years after the company’s first launcher, the Falcon 1, reached orbit for the first time.

The mid-morning mission is the 14th launch of the integrated Starship-Super Heavy rocket. Each of the previous 13 flights were intentionally flown on sub-orbital trajectories.

SpaceX will monitor the health of the rocket during its ascent and first coast phase. If all goes well, about 25 minutes after liftoff, the Ship 41 upper stage will reignite one of its three sea-level Raptor engines to raise and circularize the vehicle’s trajectory to place it into orbit.

Liftoff of the mission, dubbed Starlink 31-1, is scheduled during a 75-minute window that opens at 7:15 a.m. CDT (8:15 a.m. EDT / 1215 UTC).

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about two hours prior to liftoff. We’ll be joined by multiple guest experts throughout the broadcast.

The mission will be launched using the first stage Super Heavy booster, tail number B21, and the Starship upper stage, tail number S41. SpaceX will not attempt to recover either stage.

If SpaceX opts not to go for the orbital insertion burn, the rocket will follow a similar suborbital trajectory as with previous missions. But if they do perform that insertion burn, the plan is to start deploying the 26 Starlink Version 3 satellites onboard about 34 minutes after liftoff.

The deployment sequence will be about 30 minutes in duration. The satellites will be released from S41 in roughly one-minute increments.

SpaceX previously said it could fly up to 60 Starlink V3 satellites in future missions, but it chose to fly just 26 this first time around. Three of the satellites include extra imaging capabilities and will capture video of the Ship’s heat shield tiles.

With this being the first orbital flight of Starship, SpaceX plans to send it around the Earth about six times before a planned splashdown off the western coast of South America. The 11-second deorbit burn is planned to happen nearly nine hours after liftoff.

That will set up a planned, controlled splashdown roughly an hour later. SpaceX said depending on the outcome of this flight, they may attempt to catch the next Starship upper stage during the 15th flight test of the program.

The Most Dangerous Thing in Culture Right Now is Beauty

An intense debate on beauty is happening right now, and in some unexpected places. I recently participated in a private Silicon Valley podcast—not available to the general public—and most of the discussion focused on beauty.

This was not a gathering of artists or critics or philanthropists. The audience was a cross-section of the tech community.

And it wasn’t some isolated event, but part of a new zeitgeist, an emerging worldview. Consider the “call for a new aesthetics” happening right now. Most of the action on this front is taking place outside of traditional creative constituencies. The “call” has already generated a response, resulting in 28 funded projects.

This movement has transformative and also subversive potential. Does the use of the word subversive surprise you? Is that something you don’t associate with beauty. Well, you should, for all the reasons outlined below.

“Nothing gets the rulers of institutional culture more worried than an intense passion beyond their control—that’s why they avoid the word beauty. ”

By the way, this is not just a tech thing. Other constituencies are now hot on the trail of aesthetics and beauty—I see it happening in academic splinter groups, counterculture forums, spiritual communities, even some political circles.

What a change from the past. When I did graduate work in philosophy, aesthetics was rarely mentioned—I think my professors viewed it as too soft and fuzzy. I finally managed to take a formal class in aesthetics while in business school (of all places), largely because of a loophole in the degree requirements. But the most striking thing about that class was how few students it attracted.

Aesthetics and beauty were definitely out-of-style back then.

They had been replaced by critical theory, deconstruction, and other more hard-ass ways of addressing cultural works. Just saying the word “beauty” in a discussion on literature or painting or music was taboo. Any person who dared utter the term was considered naive or sentimental or, in some other way, deficient.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the new approach to beauty happening right now is how tough it is. If my profs, years ago, worried that beauty was too soft and fragile to serve as a conceptual pillar for the creative life, they could hardly make that claim now. In many ways, beauty is now rolling up its sleeve and going into battle—fighting for human dignity and agency at a dangerous juncture when those are under threat.

With that in mind, I want to share an article from the archive of The Honest Broker—which I’ve updated and expanded for this occasion. It’s entitled “The Most Dangerous Thing in Culture Right Now is Beauty.” I stand by those words, as odd as they sound, for all the reasons outlined below.

Before proceeding, let me say that, if you value commentary and analysis of this sort, please consider becoming a premium subscriber.


Please support my work—by taking out a premium subscription for just $6 per month.

Subscribe now


The Most Dangerous Thing in Culture Right Now is Beauty

Back in the early 1990s, renegade critic Dave Hickey left an audience in bewilderment and silence. And it only took a single word.

He was participating in a panel discussion, when a gangly grad student stood up, and demanded that Hickey identify the big issue of the decade. The famous critic seemed lost in reverie, and it wasn’t even clear whether he had heard or understood the question.

But then he offered a one-word response. And it was as shocking as anything a critic could say back then:

“Beauty.”

There was dead silence.

Narcissus is mesmerized by the reflection of his own beauty in the water (painting by Caravaggio)

But Hickey wanted to make sure everybody had heard and understood, so he spelled it out: “The issue of the Nineties will be beauty,” he announced to the room.

The questioner was dismayed, as was everyone else. Nobody knew what to say. Hickey expected pushback, or maybe an argument. But what he had said was so embarrassing, people just pretended it hadn’t happened. It was almost as if he had done something too intimate in their midst—which, oddly enough, is what the embrace of beauty always risks in a public place.

To make it worse, Hickey kept saying it again and again at subsequent events. And he always got the same response—silence. “I had discovered something,” he later admitted. “Or rather, I had put my hand out and discovered nothing.”


In fact, Hickey had touched something huge. He had identified the one thing that possesses the most potential for disruption and transgression in the whole cultural hierarchy.

The funny thing is that many people assumed that Hickey’s defense of beauty was reactionary—or sentimental or nostalgic or some other backward-looking thing. But if they paid any attention to him, they knew that Dave Hickey consistently celebrated the most shocking and controversial works of art.

In Hickey’s worldview, beautiful art was actually the most likely to get censored and attacked. So clearly he wasn’t talking about beauty in any narrow sense of prettiness. He wasn’t like an interior decorator filling a home with lovely objects.

Well, that’s not entirely true. He was like that interior decorator in one big way—he celebrated the intense possessiveness and desire aroused by beautiful things. But he was like an interior decorator on steroids, stirred and spurred by a supersized passion for his chosen objects.

That intense personal agenda, by the way, is the main source of beauty’s danger. Beauty always inflames passions, sometimes violent ones. The Greeks and Trojans learned that the hard way, thousands of years ago.

That’s why the most famous war in ancient times was fought over beauty. If you don’t think aesthetics is dangerous, you need to spend more time with the Iliad—the epic account of that conflict, which describes in bloody detail 240 separate battlefield deaths (188 Trojans and 52 Greeks, typically identified by name).

Beauty can do that. So beware.

Is it a coincidence that the same society that, more than any other, defined Western standards of beauty, also shed the most blood for it? I don’t think so.

Beauty can disrupt and destabilize, as Dave Hickey well understood. As a critic, he was burning with intensity and eroticism, but even more so as a person with agency and intent. Beauty served as the fuel.

“People are devoting half of their waking hours to the consumption of creative material of various sorts—yet the cultural institutions are all in crisis.”

I refuse to give you a definition of the beautiful, and for very good reasons. Dave Hickey’s definition of beauty is different from mine—each of us would point to conflicting examples of it. My brother Dana (who is probably doing more right now to champion beauty than any living critic/practitioner of art) would fill his museum up with still different objects.

You, the reader, also have your very personal love relationships with specific cultural artifacts. You look at them with bedroom eyes.

The only common denominator is the passion we bring to them. It’s like marriage—the institution is the same in every instance, yet as soon as we get to specifics, each one (despite what Tolstoy suggested) is completely different.

As I’ll try to show below, that flexibility and fluidity—allowing for a personal engagement with beauty that is not monolithic or constrained from above—is the very source of its power. Your beloved is not the same as your neighbor’s beloved, and we wouldn’t have it any other way.

But right now I want to tell you what beauty is NOT.

  • It doesn’t require validation by an institution.

  • It can’t be manipulated by a corporation.

  • It doesn’t need or want theory or interpretation.

  • It’s not mediated through a critic.

Now you can begin to understand why beauty is dangerous. It’s the closest thing to anarchy and liberation in our public lives.

In other words, the future of aesthetics looks more like Tumblr than MOMA.

Bernini’s Apollo and Daphne (Wikimedia Commons)

Nothing gets the rulers of institutional culture more worried than an intense passion beyond their control—that’s why they avoid the word beauty. That’s why they pretend it doesn’t exist. They have no authority over it, and never will. Their dominion ends at precisely the point where beauty begins.

It really is in the eye of the beholder. Like falling in love, your attachment to the desired object requires no reasons or arguments. It operates outside of rational argument, more like a personal eccentricity or quirk—but highly intensified and potentially even weaponized.

So you shouldn’t be surprised that some of the most eccentric and rebellious creative artists have explicitly embraced beauty as part of their agenda. They understand its subversive power.


Eye of the beholder—isn’t that just poppycock?

But this is the aesthetic force Kant described in his Critique of Judgment, where the locus of power in determining beauty really did reside in the onlooker. And though armies of later theorists have worked tirelessly at wresting this Kantian judgment away from the individual, and placing it in a higher power (nowadays that usually means a professor or an administrator of a non-profit, or the head of a Hollywood studio), the direct unmediated pleasure of the individual in the face of the beloved can never really be displaced or delegated.

The critics who grasp this end up turning into anti-critics. That’s how I read works such as Susan Sontag’s Against Interpretation, Roland Barthes The Pleasure of the Text, and Dave Hickey’s The Invisible Dragon. They are the critics who subvert criticism. My allegiances are the same—I resist theory, and prefer seeing myself as a matchmaker (or honest broker) connecting individuals with the artistic beloved.

It’s more like Tindr here than you realized. We just swipe more slowly.

And that’s why Dave Hickey encountered silence when he talked about beauty to any group of cultural elites. They will never have a response to hookup aesthetics. A lover’s relationship with the beautiful is direct and unmediated, requiring no institutional imprimatur.


Hickey was a fierce critic of the stodgy bureaucracies and institutions that try to control culture. He grasped how they turn everything into blandness. He called this power structure the therapeutic institution, and even compared it to the prisons described in Foucault’s Discipline and Punish.

In both instances, the authorities believe their own rehabilitative jargon. They act the part of “benevolent wardens”—and that’s how they justify the constant expansion of their scope of control. Only the prisoners know otherwise.

Even more to the point, Hickey understood the inherent contradiction between these domineering theocracies of culture and the liberating power of art. You have to pick one side or the other—you can’t have both. Artistic redemption for him happened in the soul, not in response to a command-and-control ideology.

So he was clearly on the side of the prisoners. And he had found the perfect weapon to neutralize the therapeutic institution. He summed it up in that one word: Beauty.

Hickey was right about beauty, as it turns out. He only got the decade wrong—his renegade culture of individuals pursuing the objects of their desire is happening now.

At the current moment in history, charged desires of this sort—operating either in open or implicit defiance of the prison warden’s intentions—represent the most powerful force in culture. And the balance is tilting in the inmates’ favor.

That would be impressive in any context. We always cheer when David defeats Goliath. But the impending triumph of the underdog right now is especially significant, because the largest investments in the economy are targeted at destroying the economic basis for human creativity.

So a victory at this decisive juncture would be sweet indeed. And beauty, I’m convinced, will make it happen.


This helps us understand a curious situation in modern society. People are devoting half of their waking hours to the consumption of creative material of various sorts—yet the cultural institutions are all in crisis.

At first glance, these trends seem like an unsolvable paradox, but when you dig into the details, you soon figure out what’s actually happening. The quest for beauty is still alive and well. It’s just that the big culture institutions can’t control it—and are forced to stand on the sidelines, while aesthetic trends now emerge at the grassroots level.

So, for example, major record labels now wait until an artist breaks out on TikTok (or some other decentralized platform)—and then try to jump on the bandwagon. But, of course, by that stage, the game is over. The label execs show up too late to the party, and have little or no bargaining leverage.

Of course, these aren’t uniformly positive changes. Some of them are downright alarming. When prisoners rebel, terrible things often happen. But rebellion is inevitable when the weight of institutional theocracy becomes so burdensome.

There is no other option than de-institutionalization. Except perhaps a cleansing and renewal of the institutions themselves—but is anybody powerful enough to make that happen?

Unfortunately, no.

So beauty is the reality on the street. The rapidity with which people are bypassing legacy cultural institutions is striking. They want a direct, unmediated relationship with the creative work.

“A refusenik indie culture is returning, although it may look different from the bohemian micro-cultures of the past. Beauty wins out even when, like Lord Voldemort, it’s the name that cannot be mentioned.”

You can analyze this trend in many ways. But beauty is the single best word to describe it. Beauty is always the goal of our obsessive, intimate relationship with a desired object. It can be a song or a movie or a book or a video game. But I’m sure you know the feeling—because you’ve experienced it yourself.

I find it highly ironic that institutions are undermined by the one thing they refuse to talk about it. And for a good reason—even mentioning how people enjoy those direct relationships with art reduces their authority and power.


The therapeutic institution is so pervasive today, that many people in positions of power can’t even imagine what an intimate relationship to arts and entertainment looks like. They think art only exists under the auspices of huge non-profits with large endowments, and that entertainment is content sold by multi-billion dollar globalized corporations.

But not long ago a whole culture ecosystem flourished outside these behemoth enterprises. You found it at

  • indie movie houses

  • alternative weeklies

  • jazz clubs, juke joints, coffee houses, and various other small venues for live performance

  • indie books from small publishers

  • video rental stores with fringe offerings

  • small literary magazines and reviews—the so-called “little magazines”

  • local art galleries

  • poetry readings, jam sessions, impromptu performances of all sorts

  • and various other places subsumed under the label counterculture.

These were locales where individuals experienced direct relationships of desire, pleasure, and intimacy with cultural objects of every persuasion. These were the places where beauty could be found, without corporate gatekeepers or institutional domination.

They have been mostly squeezed out of existence by large tech companies. But the desires they fulfilled are unsatiated by the ever present tentacles of Disney, Google, Amazon, etc.

The prisoner rebellion is already underway. A refusenik indie culture is returning, although it may look different from the bohemian micro-cultures of the past. Beauty wins out even when, like Lord Voldemort, it’s the name that cannot be mentioned.

People will still find it, embrace it, love it.


As you can see, the folks who told you that aesthetic beauty is shallow or vacuous or superficial have it all wrong. Beauty of this sort—like Helen of Troy’s—can sink ships and topple empires.

That’s what’s happening right now. In fact, it’s happening right here right now. And also in many other places where beauty flourishes outside the gaze of wardens. It’s certainly happening elsewhere at Substack—and at Bandcamp and Kickstarter and Patreon, and a thousand other web micro-communities. And it’s even happening out in the world in offbeat venues that flourish in the face of so many forces that wants to marginalize them.

That’s our beautiful revolution.

And once this process starts, there’s no telling where it might end. I have half a hunch that the impending upheaval in the creative world will lead to major changes in other spheres of public life.

It’s happened before. There was a time, similar to our own, when creative people emerged as the real thought leaders in society, and guides to a more human and humane way of living.

We still enjoy the benefits of that changing of the guard today, more than two hundred years after it took place. And something of that sort is likely to happen again. In fact, I believe there are rumblings of this kind of change underway already.

Let’s wait and see. Or even better, let’s participate in this beautiful revolution, and experience the rewards firsthand in our lives and communities. What a delightful project that promises to be.

AI in science

Scientific progress is a key driver of economic growth and prosperity. There is great excitement- but also concerns- about the impacts of AI on science, but so far little data. We provide early insights on this from three data sources: a sample of 15 million Gemini interactions, an inventory of over 2,600 specialized AI models across disciplines, and a survey of over 600 scientists. We map these data to a new taxonomy of scientific tasks to study how scientists are using AI. Four main findings emerge. First, we find broad adoption and coverage: scientists use AI more than most other occupations. Specialized AI models have broad disciplinary coverage and are highly cited. Nearly half of the scientists surveyed report using some form of AI every day. Second, we document evidence that LLMs (proxied through Gemini usage) and specialized models act as complements—LLMs are used for general analysis, coding, and manuscript preparation, while specialized models provide domain-specific predictions, data generation and classification. Third, scientists report large productivity gains from using AI: a saving of nearly 7 hours per week, time which is primarily re-invested in more research. Finally, we show that AI is already changing the scientific process. As some stages of scientific research become easier, bottlenecks shift downstream. Scientists report an increased backlog of untested hypotheses and substantial demand for output verification. Our findings suggest that AI holds significant potential to increase scientific productivity. However, as with other sectors, its ultimate impact will be governed by complex task interdependencies and investment into the elimination of emerging bottlenecks.

That is from a new paper by Mihai Codreanu, et.al.

The post AI in science appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

w/e 2026-09-27

Not much to report this week.

Only two trips to the gym but back into yoga: three 45 minute Apple Fitness+ sessions at home. Haven’t persuaded myself to get back on the bike trainer yet.

Guitar teacher is on holiday so I’ve had no lesson for a couple of weeks, which has only confirmed how the accountability, progress and variety of a weekly lesson really does make me practice more (pretty much every day).


§ A bit more fiddling this week with Home Assistant which is a good way to fill the time instead than doing anything more important. I’ve been re-doing our dashboard so it’s less overwhelming than big screens of All The Graphs And Buttons. I’ve been using Bubble Card to tidy things up, splitting everything into a larger number of smaller screens, each in a button-activated pop-up. I’ll try and do some screenshots at some point.

It’s very satisfying. Fiddly enough technically to be interesting, but I’ve avoided getting too into complicated things – we have no use for automating anything at the moment, so it’s only displaying information and providing a few sliders/drop-downs for controlling things.

It’s also interesting as a design process. There’s a limit to how much control you can have over the aesthetics of the design (unless you want to get into custom CSS and themes) but thinking about the UI and information architecture of which information is useful, and how best to present it simply, is fun, if you like that kind of thing.

And I’m continually impressed with Home Assistant and the various community integrations. Yes, it’s geeky and complicated but it’s so flexible and powerful and much more polished than so many open source things.


§ Our 4G internet continues to be woeful: occasionally 1-2 Mbps, usually less than 1 Mbps, and frequently dropping out entirely for a minute or so. Not quite sure what to do about that at the moment – such problems have usually only lasted a few days before reverting to the usual 10-30 Mbps, if you can imagine such speeds. It’s a good job we’re not working.


§ Finished reading All Fours by Miranda July which I enjoyed.

Finished watching season two of Hacks which continues to be good fun.


Read comments or post one

September 26, 2026

Trump’s war on the free press is continuing. Last night, Scott Nover of the Washington Post reported that the White House would not allow reporters from CNN on Air Force One as part of the press pool to cover the president as he traveled to Tennessee for a college football game. CNN is a member of the pool made up of the five major TV networks. The other two outlets Trump tried to ban from the White House, MS NOW and Politico, are part of a different pool. CNN was scheduled to provide the television footage for the trip.

At 6:51 this morning, Trump’s social media account posted: “Why should perpetrators of FAKE NEWS, like CNN and MSDNC, be allowed access to a very sacred place, the White House? Despite my big Election Win, almost 100% of “TRUMP” coverage is negative, and has been for years!”

He followed up at 8:22 with “FAKE NEWS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED IN THE WHITE HOUSE!!! IT HAS GONE ON FAR TOO LONG, AT A TREMENDOUS COST TO OUR COUNTRY.”

Later in the morning, he told reporters: “I love an open, free press. What I don’t like is the fake press. What we don’t want is—we don’t want fake news.”

As bad news continues to plague the administration, Trump has reasons for wanting to control the press.

On Thursday, in a scathing letter, a key prosecutor in the case of the six people charged with felonies after a protest outside the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Broadview detention facility in Illinois—the Broadview Six—resigned under protest.

Sheri Mecklenburg was a career prosecutor in the Department of Justice who was near retirement and appeared to have doubts about the felony charges against the six protesters. In the protest, people surrounded an ICE vehicle, but only the six, all of whom were active in Democratic politics, were charged.

When the cases fell apart because of prosecutorial misconduct, U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois Andrew Boutros, a strong Trump supporter, laid all of the blame for the misconduct on Mecklenburg, claiming he had been out of the loop in how the case was progressing.

But in her resignation letter, Mecklenburg said she was retiring so she could defend herself. She wrote that she had kept Boutros fully informed of the case and that he was using her as a scapegoat for his own misconduct. She said he had “personally directed” the felony prosecution after she objected “that the case was better suited to misdemeanor charges.” She says he threatened to fire her if she tried to push back on the false allegations.

Mecklenburg’s resignation and allegations illuminate the Trump administration’s efforts to persecute political opponents. Boutros’s tenure as U.S. attorney has been so problematic that there had been an exodus of senior officials from the office, and more than 100 former prosecutors signed a letter warning of failure of leadership in the office and the poisoning of the office with “once-forbidden political considerations.”

Perhaps of more concern to Trump is the report yesterday from Julia Jacobs of the New York Times that whistleblowers who used to work at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts say that six months ago, Trump loyalists running the center cancelled plans to fix the leaking roof they now claim is so dangerous the center must be closed and repaired. Those repairs, they say, will require the addition of Trump’s name to the building.

The whistleblowers claim that the center’s board put the $1.4 million that had been allocated to fix the roof toward Trump’s repainting of the building’s columns, which cost $4.4 million.

As his job approval numbers continue to decline and as individuals and the courts try to stop his unlawful actions, Trump is pushing ever harder to cement his power.

The courts have given him leeway in national security, and he is using that leeway. A recent New York Times/Siena poll showed that 69% of the American people disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war in Iran—59% of them strongly—and only 27% approve (15% strongly).

And yet, on Friday, September 25, Alexander Ward and Summer Said of the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has told aides that he is planning to start bombing Iran again after the midterm elections. Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reopen talks about nuclear weapons if the U.S. ends its blockade of Iranian ports, but Trump has rejected the offer, and his belief that the Iranians won’t meet his demands makes him think he’ll need to ramp up strikes again.

But, the reporters say, Trump’s views could shift over the coming weeks as conditions, including the midterms, change.

At the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, September 22, Trump told the heads of state and heads of government in the audience that his administration is “seeking a fundamental change” in the government of Cuba.

James LaPorta of CBS News reports that the U.S. Army Reserve is considering whether it can provide support units, including police forces and medical personnel, to the U.S. Southern Command, which covers Latin America south of Mexico, the waters around Central and South America, and the Caribbean, including Cuba.

The memo CBS reviewed doesn’t say for what operation the troops would be needed “in 90 to 120 days,” but LaPorta reports that “multiple U.S. officials” said the planning is for a potential operation aimed at Cuba.

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that Trump has invited Russia’s president Vladimir Putin to the Group of 20 (G20) summit in December in Miami, Florida. The G20 is a forum of the world’s biggest advanced and emerging economies to coordinate economic policy, and by extending the invitation, Trump is offering to welcome Putin back into global organizations without ending his invasion of Ukraine. The administration suggests that Putin will be more likely to end the war if he is included than if he is not, a position critics note gives Putin legitimacy without changing his behavior.

Yesterday, as Casey He of Politico reported, fourteen senators led by Armed Services Committee chair Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), the top-ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, urged Trump to rescind the invitation. “President Putin bears sole responsibility for launching Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine,” they wrote. “Allowing him to participate in a G20 Summit in the United States raises serious concerns about legitimizing and normalizing a government that continues to attack Ukrainian civilian targets every day.”

Today, Pranshu Verma of the Washington Post reported that earlier this month, the U.S. and Russia worked together to weaken a United Nations plan to regulate AI weapons. They stripped out a provision to make sure humans review the targets AI has selected for a military strike—a provision that would likely have avoided the U.S. strike on the Iranian school at the start of the Iran War—and took out requirements that AI systems must act in a “predictable” and “reliable” manner. They also removed a requirement that those using the systems take “ethical considerations” into account.

At the same time he is flexing U.S. muscle internationally, Trump is also continuing to try to cement as much power as he can at home.

Continuing to try to lock the United States into the use of fossil fuels, today he announced he was getting rid of the vehicle fuel economy standards established under former President Joe Biden.

Yesterday the administration announced it is refusing to spend $810 million Congress appropriated on a bipartisan basis to fund research in Health and Human Services and for programs that serve immigrants and minority groups, calling it “wasteful and harmful government spending that does not benefit American citizens.”

The Government Accountability Office (GAO), an independent, nonpartisan agency that watches over how the federal government spends taxpayer dollars, is very clear that such “pocket rescissions” are illegal. The Constitution places the power of the purse in Congress alone, requiring the president to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” If the president can decide not to fund programs Congress has appropriated funding for, he effectively takes over the power of the purse. And yet, director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought, has claimed the right to such power.

As Frank Thorp V and Kyla Guilfoil of NBC News reported, Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), vice chair of the Appropriations Committee, called the move a “theft from the American people.”

“Russ Vought’s message to Congress is that your votes don’t count, and your laws are optional,” Murray said. “It is now time for my Republican colleagues who said they would never let this happen to stand up and join us to stop this, and remind this administration this is not how this works.”

And so, while Trump is trying to cement power, opposition continues to grow.

But now it appears that Trump has yet another power move on his mind.

Jake Spring and Stephanie Apstein of the Washington Post reported tonight that the administration is considering hosting a Major League Baseball game at a national park. It has been scouting where it could build a baseball facility in Grand Teton National Park.

—

Notes:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/15/polls/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-rejects-iran-ceasefire-expects-renewed-bombing-after-midterms-5982ee50

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-groundwork-potential-action-cuba-trump/

https://www.southcom.mil/About/Area-of-Responsibility/

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-broadview-six-case-may-be-about-to-break-open

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/25/us/mecklenburgletter.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/us/chicago-federal-prosecutor-resigns-broadview-six.html

https://news.wttw.com/sites/default/files/article/file-attachments/FAUSA%20statement%20FINAL%2006_08_26.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/us/chicago-federal-prosecutor-resigns-broadview-six.html

https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/25/politics/white-house-blocks-cnn-air-force-one-travel-pool

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/09/25/white-house-blocks-cnn-trip-air-force-one/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/arts/music/kennedy-center-trump-renovations.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/23/trump-putin-g20-miami-01089850

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/09/25/congress/trump-putin-g20-invite-pushback-01093667

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/09/26/how-us-russia-weakened-global-effort-regulate-killer-ai/

https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2026/06/27/broadview-six-boutros-chicago

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-approved-fuel-economy-standards-ending-biden-ev-mandate-2026-09-26/

https://www.gao.gov/blog/what-pocket-rescission-and-it-legal

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/lawmakers-slam-trumps-unlawful-move-cut-810-million-federal-funds-rcna599942

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2026/09/26/trump-officials-weigh-mlb-game-grand-teton-national-park/

YouTube:

watch?v=adnVJqlmtJs

Trump’s Truth:

statuses/41923

statuses/41926

statuses/41949

Share

National Lobster Day

September 25, 2026

September 25 is Dolly Parton Day and also National Lobster Day, honoring the cultural and economic history of the lobster industry, Lobsters have been vital to Maine’s coastal communities, but were once scorned as poor man’s food, It was fish that were central to the English settlement of North America, Scholars have called the discovery of fish in the Atlantic and the trade it sparked, the “Fish Revolution,” Fishing meant big money and British fishermen fished the Grand Banks and had moved into the Gulf of Maine by 1600, European fishermen brought diseases for which the Indigenous populations had no immunities and tribes were wiped out, The fish trade was so important to New Englanders that access to fishing grounds was written into the third article of the Treaty of Paris, which officially ended the Revolutionary War.

To read this letter, click here:

Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Spotify

You can also find Heather at:
YouTube
Bluesky
Instagram
Facebook
Threads
TikTok

Sunday assorted links

1. AI-related efforts in higher education in Morocco (ChatGPT).

2. Intelligence explosions are social.

3. The speech-processing skills of dogs.

4. Kalshi market in economics Nobel.

5. Why are Indian weddings with dancing gorillas going viral? Pakistan too.

6. Eminem, and some German guy.

7. On the UAP council.

8. On higher interest rates.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

In Case You Missed It…

…a week of Mad Biologist posts:

Professional Republicans Really Hate Each Other: The (Alleged) Boebert Affair(s)

Trump Take Brisket (or, Where’s the Beef?)

A Good Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

Links 9/26/26

Links for you. Science:

Dengue‑carrying mosquitoes expand their reach into new territories – including Florida
Venus May Have Devoured Its Moon
The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases
Scientists hope deeper-rooted soybeans can withstand climate extremes and store more carbon
Beyond the Threshold: Have Coral Reefs Crossed Earth’s First Climate Tipping Point?
Why I Love AI

Other:

Why We Can’t Let Enormous Weirdos Regulate AI
What should Democrats do if they win?
Trump Is Destroying Public Health. Democrats Need to Fight Back.
Republicans Had 690 Days to Oppose Trump. They’re trying to cram all the opposition into the last 40 before the election.
Models Don’t Go Rogue
Susan Collins Dismissed Our Reporting as Old News. Some of Her Claims Aren’t True.
Supreme Court revives DHS use of flawed immigration database for voter purges
The Trump Administration Has Made It Harder to Be Homeless in D.C.
Soldiers can refuse to commit war crimes. Can AI?
Don’t be fooled by this summer of AI hype. Breathless claims about AGI and new capabilities fall apart pretty quickly under scrutiny.
Donald Trump is an idiot, and the mainstream press is covering up for him
Inside the Freakout Over AI Testing in Government Websites. A rush of AI into government web development is worrying tech workers over accessibility.
Woman Arrested, Dragged Away After Quietly Speaking About Flock at City Council Meeting
Contrary to Collins, Maine’s laws aren’t enough to protect women
It Was Already a Pretty Bad Week. Then Trump Surrendered to China.
MAGA Senator Goes on Crazed Posting Spree About Furries
D.C.’s Workforce Is Still Recovering From Massive Federal Job Cuts
A Quiet ICE Surge That Unfolded ‘Everywhere All at Once’ This Summer
D.C. Landlords Push the Council to Allow Speedier Evictions
Justice Jackson says Supreme Court intervenes too quickly on Trump’s side
The AI extinction narrative is winning out
How megapastor Adam Hamilton could break the GOP’s hold on Kansas
In a South Tel Aviv Warehouse, Eritrea’s Democratic Revolution Is Brewing
“I think the answer is we have to shut the labs down” – Jensen Huang
Paul LePage, a Trump Ally, Says a Family Member Is Being Deported
You’re paying for Trump’s campaign ads—and Fox News is cashing in
Japanese used bookstores see 5x sales surge as books are being bought by the ton, one 50-ton order sent to the US for AI scanning and destruction — multitude of suspicious bulk buys thought to end up in foreign AI scan and shred facilities
Why is Ken Paxton beefing with a drag queen?
Owners mourn spoiled food after firmware update bricks Samsung smart fridges
Trump’s Justice Department Dropped 23,000 Criminal Investigations in Shift to Immigration

On Amy Stevens

So, in case you didn’t notice, yesterday this site ran a post headlined, A GALLERY OF HOPE: THE TRUTH OC’S 26 BEST POLITICAL FIGURES OF 2026. And heading the list was Amy Stevens, a woman who is everywhere, at all times, on all days, fighting for democracy as a volunteer organizer for OC Indivisible Coalition and member rep for OC Working Families Party. As I noted in my brief, Amy is inspiring and rugged and uniquely determined. She is, truly, a heroic figure on the local political scene.

Seriously, there are few people on earth for whom I have greater respect.

Well, today—on Instagram—Amy posted this …

She elaborated on her website, and I’m going to post what she ran about her cancer battle right here …

This isn’t our typical newsletter. It’s a little more personal than usual, so grab a snack then please read to the end. In this email:

  • My breast cancer diagnosis, and how you can help
    (see WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR ME at the end - please don’t skip it!)

  • DeFlock OC updates: stickers & shirts

  • Help us monitor local government

  • A sweet surprise from The Truth OC

 WHERE I’VE BEEN

About a month ago, I was diagnosed with breast cancer. I had no idea - it showed up on a routine mammogram (to all those who could be affected - get your scans regularly!)

I didn’t tell a lot of people, just those who would be impacted by the disruption to my schedule from all the exams and tests and consultations with medical experts. We found it early and the tumor is relatively small. It appears to be very treatable, and I’m likely to live for a few more decades.

I know there are so many other people facing so many worse things:

  • kidnappings and deportations and family separations of our immigrant neighbors

  • children killed by American bombs dropped by our “ally” nations

  • more than 1,000 people who died in Nepal from flash floods after a glacier collapse linked to climate change

  • hospitals, one after another, cutting off care for trans kids under pressure from Trump’s Justice Department

  • our Supreme Court clearing the way for the Trump regime to check voter rolls against a citizenship database weeks before the midterms, after so many have already been disenfranchised this year due to rollbacks of our voting rights

So I didn’t want to center myself or “make a big deal.”

But I’ve had to pull back a bit on in-person events in recent weeks even as I’ve continued to work hard in the background. Folks have noticed - so many of you have reached out to ask where I am! (thank you to everyone who’s stepped up to help out at our weekly rallies)

And as my surgery approaches (tomorrow morning!) I’m realizing this is a real and scary and big thing that is happening to me (and to my family), and my feelings of fear and anger and irritation and sadness are valid. As my oncologist told me, “we’re not in a competition for who has the worst circumstances.”

So I decided to share the news with you all, not for your sympathy, but to hopefully inspire you to dig in deeper to the work that needs to be done. (See my list at the end!)

WHY HEALTHCARE IS PERSONAL

Our family is on Medi-Cal, and fortunately it’s covering my scans, tests, appointments, medication, surgery, and whatever comes next - for now. I’m so grateful. I’m also scared. Starting January 1, 2027, many adults on Medi-Cal/Medicaid will have to prove 80 hours a month of work, school, job training, or approved community service to keep their coverage, thanks to the Big Bad Budget Bill. I’ve been looking for work with benefits for months, and now I need it more than ever.

•••

And here’s what’s amazing and breathtaking and spiritual about Amy: She used the news of her health struggle to … inspire us to fight. I mean, that’s friggin’ unreal. At a low moment in her life, the priority is defending democracy and turning out for elections and battling back against the authoritarian creep.

Bravo.

Amy wants people to donate to the OC Indivisible Coalition Orange County CA—and that’s what I’m urging everyone to do. This is the link. I just gave two seconds ago, and I encourage everyone to do the same.

For Amy, sure.

But also for America.

Replacing the old battery on rechargeable bike lights

Hello! Recently I needed bike lights for my bike. And I remembered that I already had rechargeable bike lights that I bought ten years ago, that I hadn’t tried in a long time. I tried to recharge them, but after fully charging them, they only worked for maybe 5 minutes before they turned off again.

I don’t know much about electronics, but I’ve been curious about whether it’s possible to fix old electronics for a long time, and this seemed like the perfect repair project because I might just need to replace the battery.

So I went to the local queer makerspace where I’m a member to use the soldering iron and try to do it! I don’t know much about electronics and this post does not contain any safety advice because I don’t know much about safety. I think it’s nice to do projects in a community space where you can get help.

step 1: cut it open

The bike light felt like it was made of silicone, so I cut open the silicone in a haphazard way along something that vaguely looked like a seam.

I definitely ripped some silicone in the process and it was pretty messy but I got it open and found the circuit board.

I don’t know the model number of the bike lights but there’s a photo of them at the end of the post.

step 2: remove the screws

There were some screws attaching things together so I removed them so I could get the circuit board out.

Mostly I tried to remove as few screws as possible because I was worried about losing them or not being able to put them back after. I probably put the screws in a bag or something.

step 3: get the circuit board out

I took out the circuit board. Here’s what it looked like:

You can see where the battery is attached, I think it’s left of RI3 and above Q2.

Here’s what the battery looked like:

step 4: desolder the battery

I’d never desoldered anything before, so I found the iFixit guide to desoldering and read it. Also I asked my friends Lee and Lauria for advice.

Here were the steps I ended up following based on the guide & the advice I got:

  1. Use a desoldering pump to remove most of the solder
  2. Once most of it is gone, kind of pull them apart to try to separate them
  3. Also try to avoid getting the battery too hot in the process by taking breaks to let it cool down. I’m not very good with a soldering iron so it took a while.
  4. The battery has an attachment that is welded to the top. For a while I thought I needed to remove this and it seemed impossible, but it turned out the replacement battery comes with that part so actually I was supposed to leave it alone.

step 5: identify the battery

In the picture of the battery in Step 3, you can see it says something like “3” and “LI???77”. There’s a piece of metal that I think is welded or something to the top of the battery. It seemed impossible and also maybe not smart to try to remove so I wasn’t sure how to find out what an “LI????77” was or how to order another one.

I’ve been trying to avoid using LLMs (though I will not get into that because I am exhausted by LLM discourse and I’m sure you are too), but I really had no idea how to figure out what the battery was so I asked an LLM. It gave the response “LIR2477”, which (when I looked it up) looked exactly the same as my battery so I figured that was plausible.

I would be interested to learn non-LLM ways to figure this out though. There must be a way. Lauria showed me how to use DigiKey’s search which was very cool though DigiKey didn’t have that part.

(edit: someone in the replies told me that this kind of coin cell battery is named according to its dimensions, and you can use plastic calipers to measure the dimensions of the battery. So I guess a non-LLM way would be to measure the battery with calipers and try to match it to something on the List of battery sizes Wikipedia page, though that page only mentions CR 2477 and not LIR 2477. It’s a good example of what’s fun for me about trying to avoid LLMs, this “List of battery sizes” page is super interesting and if I use an LLM I might never find it)

step 6: buy the battery

I went to AliExpress and ordered:

  1. 2 batteries (I had 2 bike lights and I wanted to fix them both)
  2. some silicone glue to glue things back together

I think the batteries were $3 each and the glue was $8.

step 7: solder the new batteries in and glue it back together

The parts took maybe 2 weeks to arive, and once they arrived, I went back to the makerspace and:

  • soldered in the new batteries
  • put the screws back in. The screws were very small and hard to hold, so at this point I dropped some screws on the ground and couldn’t find them because they were too small. So I just used fewer screws and hoped for the best.
  • used the glue to try to put everything back together.
  • Make a somewhat halfhearted attempt to clamp the parts I was gluing together

Then after waiting some amount of time for the glue to dry I took it home and waited 24 hours for the glue to cure.

Also I took the old batteries to somewhere nearby that accepts old batteries.

it works!

The lights work! I have used them to bike at night! I still haven’t needed to recharge them (and tragically I had to order a new Mini USB cable because I got rid of all my Mini USB cables, so I’m still waiting for that), so I still don’t know for sure how long the lifetime of the new battery will be.

Here’s what the light looks like after re-gluing. You can see that I didn’t glue very carefully. It didn’t really go back together that well but I’m hoping it’ll be good enough.

I thought it was really cool that I was able to do this with extremely minimal electronics skills! It cost about $20 CAD to buy the parts, and (whether or not the repair holds up, I’ll try to update this post in the future!), it was fun to try to repair something and learn something new.

Iran's kidney market, reviewed in Al-Madina: Journal of Islamic Law

The new English language journal Madina: Journal of Islamic Law has, in it's inaugural issue, a literature review of the Iranian kidney market. (It appears only to have reviewed papers that were also published in English.) The title summarizes the conclusion, that the market aligns with the goals of Islamic law.

Faisal, Ahmad, Abdul Khakim Mahfud Zubaidi, Ahmad Nizar Zuhdi Al Hakimi, and Roya Goldoust. “The Iranian government’s efforts to facilitate foundation-led kidney donation align with the Maqāsid al-Sharī’ah.” Al-Madina: Journal of Islamic Law 1, no. 1 (2026): 28–48. 

Abstract
The issue of kidney transplantation, particularly through compensated living-unrelated donors, represents a complex intersection of medical necessity, ethical debate, and international governance. Iran is unique in legally regulating compensated kidney donation, aiming to address the chronic shortage of transplantable organs while providing structured financial incentives to donors. This study analyzes Iran’s
kidney donation system through the lens of maqāsid al-sharī’ah, emphasizing the objective of hifz al-nafs (preservation of life), to evaluate both the ethical legitimacy and life-saving effectiveness of the policy. Employing a qualitative-descriptive approach, the research synthesizes empirical evidence on donor demographics, motivations, compensation mechanisms, and clinical outcomes, alongside normative Islamic ethical considerations and international standards such as the WHO Guiding Principles and the Declaration of Istanbul. Findings reveal that while Iran’s system significantly enhances patient survival and fulfills the core goal of hifz al-nafs, donor participation is heavily influenced by economic necessity, raising ethical concerns about voluntariness, long-term welfare, and equitable access. Moreover, the system’s interaction with foreign patients highlights challenges in cross-border governance and the potential for transplant tourism. The study contributes academically by integrating empirical outcomes with Islamic normative ethics, and practically by offering insights for policymakers, religious authorities, and international health organizations on navigating the tension between life preservation, ethical legitimacy, and socioeconomic realities. The research underscores that while the Iranian model demonstrates pragmatic life-saving benefits, ethical safeguards for donors must remain central to uphold the objectives of maqāsid al-sharī’ah."

On August 15, this On August 15, this


Earth fact of the day, #2

The shortages have gone on for so long that they are aggressively driving down how much carbon is being released into the atmosphere, a Washington Post analysis of data from the International Energy Agency shows. People worldwide are using significantly less oil and gas, which means less climate pollution…

Such an annual decline has not happened since the height of the coronavirus pandemic. Fossil fuel consumption dropped significantly more then, and consumption was lower in absolute terms, too. Crude oil demand averaged 91 million barrels per day in 2020, compared with 102 million barrels per day under the latest IEA forecast.

But this year’s drop — especially given the sharp increase that was initially forecast — is substantial.

Here is the full story.  Not a good thing overall, but there is a lesson in that to…

The post Earth fact of the day, #2 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

The Federal Lands: An Economic Property Rights Perspective

The US federal government owns and administers 472,892,659 acres or 21% of the land area of the lower 48 states, the country’s largest landowner. The resource is held and managed as a collective resource, the Federal Lands, through political and bureaucratic interpretation of the Multiple Use principle and generally, the biological aim of maximum sustained-yield. By contrast, access, exchange, and investment for most other US natural resources are through private property rights and markets. Despite the magnitude of the resource, economists have devoted relatively limited attention to the economic and welfare impact. The objective is to suggest economic implications and to encourage additional economic analyses. The discussion summarizes federal lands privatization through 1891, when withholding of federal lands began. The literature reveals no demonstratable market failure or increased resource scarcity from private exploitation between 1870 and 1957 when most lands were withheld. Because land was nonmobile and observable private property rights could have been assigned and any externalities addressed via Pigouvian restrictions or Coasean exchange. Federal ownership was not obviously required. Progressive Era reformers, driven by concerns of impending resource depletion, called for scientific, sustained-yield management by government officials. The institutional change is economically important. As outlined by Dixit and others, private rights holders have high powered incentives for efficient resource use that are lacking in decision making by agency officials who do not hold exchangeable property rights and do not directly bear the economic costs and benefits of their actions. Consequential public goods delivery could be an offset, but these are not measured for tradeoff calculations. Following Krueger, a rent-seeking framework is presented for comparing outcomes with economic property rights and political management. The analysis suggests that a.) federal lands will have lower production value than comparable private, all else equal; (b). federal lands management will be less responsive to shifts in economic costs and benefits. Public goods may be provided for high amenity, recreation, and ecological areas, but the dominant Multiple Use management principle provides no objective criteria for allocation or for periodic outcome assessment and adjustment. A literature review and data for contemporary federal forests, range, and oil and gas lands are provided.

That is from a new paper by Gary D. Libecap.

The post The Federal Lands: An Economic Property Rights Perspective appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Another Day Off

This is not quiet quitting, I promise. Just too many things on my plate. I hope to have a primer on interest rates tomorrow.

Kākāpō Party

Tool: Kākāpō Party

I presented a closing keynote for the WeAreDevelopers World Congress North America yesterday. As a STAR moment I decided to weave in references to the record breaking kākāpō breeding season we had in 2026.

For my closing slide I wanted to celebrate, and I had seen some buzz around how good Claude Opus 5.5 was at creating pixel art animations. So I rounded up three Kakapo photos from Google image search and dropped them into Claude with this prompt:

Here are some photos of kakapo parrots just to remind you what they look like

I need you to make an animation in animated pixel art on HTML 5 canvas of obviously pixel art kakapo jumping up and down having a party with confetti and suchlike - there should be at least 20 of them

Here's the transcript, and this is the resulting page. It's pretty great!

I wanted to embed it in a Keynote presentation file, so I downloaded the HTML and told a local Claude Code session:

Make me a video of file:///Users/simon/Downloads/kakapo-party.html - you need to load it in a browser and click on it a few times to get the confetti effect, the video should be 15s long

don't start clicking until 3s in

make sure several clicks are spread around the clickable area

Claude Code used Playwright (transcript here) and produced this video, which was exactly what I needed for my final slide:

Here's the full Playwright script it used, which was pleasingly short:

# /// script
# dependencies = ["playwright"]
# ///
import time
from playwright.sync_api import sync_playwright
W, H = 1280, 720
# Canvas fills the viewport; spread clicks across corners, edges and centre
clicks = [
    (3.0, 640, 360),   # centre
    (4.2, 160, 120),   # top-left
    (5.4, 1120, 120),  # top-right
    (6.6, 180, 600),   # bottom-left
    (7.8, 1100, 600),  # bottom-right
    (9.0, 640, 100),   # top-centre
    (10.0, 380, 380),  # mid-left
    (11.0, 900, 380),  # mid-right
    (12.2, 640, 620),  # bottom-centre
    (13.2, 640, 300),  # finale centre
]
with sync_playwright() as p:
    b = p.chromium.launch()
    ctx = b.new_context(viewport={"width":W,"height":H}, record_video_dir="vids", record_video_size={"width":W,"height":H})
    page = ctx.new_page()
    t0 = time.time()
    page.goto("file:///Users/simon/Downloads/kakapo-party.html")
    for t,x,y in clicks:
        time.sleep(max(0, t-(time.time()-t0)))
        page.mouse.click(x,y)
    time.sleep(max(0, 16.0-(time.time()-t0)))
    ctx.close(); b.close()

Tags: animation, speaking, ai, kakapo, playwright, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, claude, claude-code

The Talk Show: ‘I’m Thinking X, Not X’

Andru Edwards returns to the show to discuss Apple’s big September event and their new products: the iPhones 18 Pro and Duo, AirPods 5, and Apple Watch Series 12/Ultra 4.

Sponsored by:

  • Factor: Healthy eating, made easy. Get 50% off and one free breakfast item per box for one year, while supplies last, with code talkshow50off.
  • Notion: The collaborative AI workspace where teams and agents work side by side, with a developer platform teams can build on.
 ★ 

Saturday 26 September 1663

Up and to my office, and there we sat till noon, and then I to the Exchange, but did little there, but meeting Mr. Rawlinson he would needs have me home to dinner, and Mr. Deane of Woolwich being with me I took him with me, and there we dined very well at his own dinner, only no invitation, but here I sat with little pleasure, considering my wife at home alone, and so I made what haste home I could, and was forced to sit down again at dinner with her, being unwilling to neglect her by being known to dine abroad. My doing so being only to keep Deane from dining at home with me, being doubtful what I have to eat. So to the office, and there till late at night, and so home to supper and bed, being mightily pleased to find my wife so mindful of her house.

Read the annotations

Reelizer Returns

Back in 2011 I linked to Reelizer, a splendid archive of movie posters curated by Roger Erik Tinch. Reelizer went away for a few years, but Tinch has brought it back, seemingly better than ever. Huzzah.

 ★ 

Alexandr Wang: ‘Why I’m Building Muse’

Alexandr Wang, blogging on X:

Now imagine every person on earth with a second mind beyond their own. A general manager whose whole job is to find out what you want and make sure it happens. Someone that hears the half-sentence, “I feel like there’s something more I could be doing,” and helps fill in the blanks. This might not be a genie in a bottle, but it can be someone that says, “This is the thing you’ve been dreaming of your whole life. Let’s go get it. Here’s how.” And then builds a plan. Sends the email. Makes the phone call. Finds the funding. Keeps you on schedule. Clears the way and solves all the problems it can until the human part, the wanting and the dreaming, is all that’s left.

Via Manton Reece, who writes:

This is a mission statement. It’s ambitious and clear. Compared to Meta’s usual “connecting people” pitch — which we just translate to “scale to everyone and serve ads” — this new statement from Alexandr feels almost shockingly personal and new.

 ★ 

Apple’s Other Recent ‘Duo’

I keep mentioning Apple’s 1992 groundbreaking PowerBook Duo series as a precedent for the iPhone Duo’s name. But of course in 2020, Apple released the MagSafe Duo Charger, a wonderful Lightning peripheral for charging an iPhone and Apple Watch at the same time. It even folded.

A brief note on the PowerBook Duo, while I’m at it. I got an email this month from Dave Rothschild, a now-retired former Apple employee who helped spearhead that project, and he emphasized that the internal motto was always “Best of Both Worlds”, abbreviated internally to just “BOBW”. At the time, laptops were just profoundly less powerful than desktop computers, but desktop computers of course were the opposite of “portable”. The Macintosh Duo was a terrific success, because it really did achieve that “best of both worlds” experience. Here’s a 2015 retrospective on the PowerBook Duo by Christopher Phin that captures and illustrates just how groundbreaking it was.

BOBW is exactly what the iPhone Duo needs to be. It needs to be a great iPhone on the outside, and a great mini tablet on the inside.

Bonus link: Rothschild’s daughter Gabby made a nice “This is not Apple’s first Duo” video, including footage of her dad doing the initial on-stage demo back in 1992.

 ★ 

International Standard Paper Sizes

Markus Kuhn:

In the ISO paper size system, the height-to-width ratio of all pages is the square root of two (1.4142 : 1). In other words, the width and the height of a page relate to each other like the side and the diagonal of a square. This aspect ratio is especially convenient for a paper size. If you put two such pages next to each other, or equivalently cut one parallel to its shorter side into two equal pieces, then the resulting page will have again the same width/height ratio.

Same principle as the using the square root of 2 to achieve a very similar aspect ratio on both the iPhone Duo’s inner and outer displays. With the international paper system, you can do things like scale up 2× or scale down 0.5× without changing the relative margins. E.g. print or photocopy at 50 percent to get two virtual pages per printed page of output. It’s an elegant system.

 ★ 

Microsoft Took the ‘Copilot+ PC’ Brand Out Behind the Shed

Zac Bowden, Windows Central:

In 2024, Microsoft and Qualcomm kicked off a new category of Windows hardware it called “Copilot+ PCs” that set the baseline for a new wave of AI-first computers, and launched with exclusive features that would not be made available on PCs that didn’t meet a new set of system requirements.

The launch didn’t go smoothly. [...]

I’ve noticed that none of the Surface PCs launched in 2026 include the Copilot+ PC moniker in their product names, unlike the Surface PCs that launched in 2025 and before. Now, you have to go digging to find any mention of Copilot+ compatibility in specification sheets.

Microsoft’s had to dig a lot of holes in the ground behind that shed over the years. The lesson here is that good devices are just good devices. A good PC is going to be a good PC for AI too. Wasting time with special branding is a distraction from the core task of just making the devices good.

 ★ 

Another Factor: Bad Candidates

Here’s a secondary issue we’re currently seeing in a number of races in Red States. Take the Kansas Senate race. Who knows if this is really in play? But the last two polls of this race actually show Democrat Adam Hamilton with a nominal lead (+1 or +2). But there’s an issue here with Sen. Roger Marshall (R), the incumbent senator. And it goes beyond Marshall. In a lot of solidly Red States you’ve got a generation of politicians who’ve never seen a contested partisan election. If you get the GOP nomination you’re the senator. Period. And in some states getting that nomination can have a significant machine dimensions to it.

That breeds a certain kind of politician, which is to say not very good politicians, or at least ones who aren’t very good at retail politics. Marshall’s the guy known for suing and even jailing (yes, really) a lot of his poor medical patients for very small overdue bills (he’s an OB/GYN). I’m told he doesn’t even really live in Kansas anymore. He lives in a “vacation” home in Florida. This is toxic stuff in a really tough partisan election. But you don’t get many of those in Kansas. A few days ago he went on Twitter complaining about ICE not coordinating with local police in Kansas. He’s desperate. He’ll probably be listing his pronouns on his Twitter bio by November. Trump’s steep unpopularity is bringing at least seemingly contested races to big parts of Red State America. But it’s more than that. Some states have incumbents with deep roots and real political skills. In some races you’ve got a Republican incumbent who’s just not ready for that.

I’ve discussed a version of this in states like North Carolina. There it’s a slightly different issue. In Donald Trump’s personalist regime, he’s gotten used to handing out nominations as gifts. Michael Whatley got this nomination as a reward for babysitting Lara Trump when she was briefly head of the RNC. But North Carolina isn’t a solidly Red State. And this is a bad year. Republicans are reportedly close to abandoning Whatley along with Mike Collins in Georgia. They’re just too far behind. There’s something very similar with Darline Graham, a laughably bad candidate, vying for her late brother’s seat in South Carolina. But South Carolina is just a very, very conservative state. So she’s very likely safe.

It’s only with these additional factors, even with historic presidential unpopularity, that you can have this many of what should be safe seats under pressure.

Your Moment of Trump Zen

Yesterday, after a federal court forced the White House to readmit three news organizations to the White House, Donald Trump ordered the Secret Service to bar CNN from a flight today to a college football game in Knoxville. Right-minded people get infuriated and understandably so. But I would like to encourage you to see it in a somewhat different light.

Trump went to war against Iran because he was upset, disequilibriated by his declining popularity and power at home. Now he is boxed in by, defeated by Iran and pouring all his energy into a fever run of monument buildings and renamings. The news organization bans are just another part of that same storm of acting out. More failure, more ego-soothing. The guy is doubling down on what actually accounts for a larger part of his unpopularity and likely midterm drubbing than people realize. Yes, gas prices, diesel prices are driving him lower and lower. Just as much, I would argue, is Trump’s constant performance of “People Care About X, Trump Cares About Y”. His enemies can claim he only cares about himself. He’s far more convincing when he says it himself. Everyday. Through his own actions. You’re more spun up about the particular offenses. Most voters are seeing his priorities, and attempted demonstrations of power that look increasingly silly, often pitiful and cringey. He’s in a regressed feedback loop. It’s turning the people whose support he needs against him more every day.

A new prayer for the fruit fly connectome

I have moral queasiness about the fruit fly work going on in the AI world – I’m not 100% sure why. We need to invent new prayers, that’s where my thoughts take me. Bear with me while I think it through…

In case you missed it:

Google Research and partners mapped the complete brain of the male fruit fly (3 September).

It’s a common bug and common in scientific research. The male fruit fly has 166,000 neurons across the brain and main nerve cord; the map is called the connectome.

Long story short, the connectome is now available for free download, you can get a simulator of the different types of neurons, it caught the imagination of the internet, over September there has been all kinds of wild nonsense (impressive nonsense!).

e.g. here’s a GIF of the fruit fly connectome playing Beat Saber (a VR rhythm game).

And now there are 100s of demos with embedded fruit fly sims.

Such as DesktopFly: "A 3D fruit fly that lives on your macOS desktop, with spiking simulations built from FlyWire brain wiring and the MaleCNS brain-to-leg network. It combines identified neural circuits with modeled senses, joints and behavior."

Or Fly64: "Hooks a MaleCNS model up to Super Mario 64". Requires you to bring your own game ROM and there is something in the irony that Nintendo has more IP over Mario than the fruit fly over its connectome…

It’s all gotten a bit excitable and irreverent.


Seeing all these experiments, I am not excited. I have a nagging feeling of wrongness.

I am aware that I am the outlier here. And I wouldn’t want these playful experiments to stop – and yet…

It’s worth examining where my feeling of wrongness is coming from?


Do I imagine that the simulated fruit fly is someone being trapped and tormented, again and again and again, in a software prison?

No, the fruit fly connectome is unlikely to be sentient.

(Loosely my model is that sentience is the capacity to feel and experience; consciousness is the higher test of self-awareness. I’m not considering consciousness here.)

BUT I don’t believe that sentience is a binary category.

At some point on the scale, sentience starts to be meaningful. Humans are, rocks aren’t, cats mostly are, ants are more than rocks but only just. Who knows about stellar nebulae or the fluid dynamical gas storms in the Jovian atmosphere.

Where would I place the fly connectome in relation to say, a bacteria, or a virus? A virus doesn’t have sentience (even in my most panpsychist moments) and is not alive in itself – although it is part of a living system. The connectome is just a pattern of weights, right?

Well I am predisposed to believe that the pattern of the neurons does indeed capture something essential of the fly.

What makes a brick wall? "A brick wall is bricks, and mortar, and pattern."

So this MaleCNS file download does capture some of the essence.

But in a meaningful way?


It’s also relevant that I believe that AI will one day be sentient, about which I’ve written a bunch.

Are today’s LLMs sentient?

Look, I am not an AI researcher and I have no special expertise here, and let’s not let that be a barrier: my guess is that today’s LLMs are not sentient but that they may well be in the lineage.

My guess at the roadmap to AI sentience goes something like this:

  • Sentience will require a singular AI which is run continuously, not today’s cloned instances which are spun up for one-off responses.
  • The singular AI will be capable of learning (because experience and learning are basically the same thing)
  • Therefore it will have to be capable of guiding its own learning, probably from day 0, growing in capability over time
  • This future AI will not initially be a giant matrix of weights. It will start as an intelligence kernel which has pre-baked information-gathering/interaction tropisms and biases in how it structures and incorporates its learning. It will probably be very, very small. And trained by letting it loose in world sims and libraries.

The exact shape of that kernel will be establishing by understanding the gestalt of the world it will eventually live in: i.e. it will be structured by the experience encoded by today’s LLMs.

But the kernel’s architecture may well be based on something we already have, an already viable connectome.

Say, the fruit fly.

Yes yes this is highly, highly speculative. But I can’t help how I see the world.


Therefore my feeling of moral worth of the fruit fly connectome seems to arrive from two directions:

  • Where it comes from: It is derived from something that is alive and, although probably not sentient, closer on the scale to sentient humans than to non-sentient rocks.
  • Where it goes: there is a small chance that this connectome is in the lineage of future new sentients.

Does it matter?

I mean: I am a hypocrite, surely? I eat meat? I will destroy an ant nest when the ants are coming into my house? I believe that animal testing in the name of science is on-balance worth it?

There is a scale to moral worth.

Or rather: any moral framework has to be subjective.

I care more about my immediate family than yours; I care more about humanity than aliens living near Sirius B.

Likewise I would fully expect you to care about your immediate family more than mine! And the Sirius Betans couldn’t give a fig about humanity while they care very much for their own!

A good moral framework has to incorporate and respect that subjectivity, and also the sliding scales and the trade-offs.

So - to take the meat example - I can live with animals being farmed and killed, in my name, for my supper… so long as I don’t take it for granted. I need to retain gratitude for meat.

Part of being human is learning how to live with the self-evident worth of animals and also eating them; or negotiating the rival concerns of oikos vs polis and simultaneously value our nearest and dearest while insisting on the equality of all.

Possibly we don’t notice this inner conflict (and settlement) consciously, not all of us, not all the time, but I am convinced it is there.

This perspective helps me be more precise about the fly connectome.


It is not the fly connectome itself that makes me queasy.

It’s that’s we aren’t taking it seriously. It’s our lack of respect?

Like – consider my two directions… a slippery slope problem arrives from both ends:

  • Where it comes from: if we don’t respect that the connectome comes from a living fruit fly, then what about when it comes from a cat? A human baby?
  • Where it goes: if we don’t at least have a glimmer of respect for software sims today, then what about the sentient software in its lineage tomorrow? (And what will that sentience software make of us?)

Cast forward 100 years: these will be real issues, no doubt.

In 10 years? There’s a decent chance.

Next year? Well, we should start the conversation.


I feel comfortable in saying that my moral queasiness over the fruit fly connectome is valid, having thought it through.

I don’t think we should stop playing around.

Of course we shouldn’t stop! It would be absurd and inconsistent to stop!

Uncountable millions of fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster have been bred, ethered, and used scientific work both serious and frivolous over the years.

Progress has trade-offs; the fly connectome is an easy one.

But I do feel like we should begin to practice respect, gratitude, even forgiveness – even in very small ways.

I’m not the only one!

I was writing about rituals back in 2021 when I ran across futurist Jaron Lanier talking about dignity:

Dignity is something people have to create. … I don’t want to be living in a world in 20 years where there is a non-ritualistic way to do stem-cell research.

(And so new rituals of dignity should be invented, he said.)

He’s so right.


Practically: where do we start?

I would like to think that a person vibe-coding a hook-up between the fly connectome and the Doom game engine is taking a moment to say “thanks” as the file downloads…

…but I doubt it. We have no established cultural practice of that.

Like Lanier said, we have to invent it.

So my suggestion is this:

Google Research should build a small shrine to the fruit fly.

Incorporate the body of a fly and the extracted essence, the connectome itself, engraved onto something effortful and monumental: perhaps it would be appropriate to use chip fabs, our civilizational peak, to lay it down on unique silicon.

Put the shrine (it can be small) somewhere anyone can visit. The new building in London King’s Cross maybe, just a corner there.

Find a poet to write a few words. A new secular prayer to recognise, express thanks and ask forgiveness. Nothing onerous, just a short grace. Print the words on cards.

Visitors can read the words, light a candle and move on. Treat it lightly but seriously.

Barely anyone will visit to begin with. For people who do, it will mostly be a novelty. Not for everyone.

It would be a beginning.


More posts tagged: ai-consciousness (6).

Auto-detected kinda similar posts:

Tropical Moisture Will Bring Heavy to Excessive Rainfall with Possible Flooding This Week

Next crew bound for the space station arrive in Florida

The four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission arrived onboard T-38 jets at the Kennedy Space Center on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026. Left to right: Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk, Roscomos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov, NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, and NASA astronaut Luke Delaney. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

The next quartet heading to the International Space Station arrived at the Kennedy Space Center on Saturday afternoon. They are scheduled to launch no earlier than 11:10 a.m. EDT (1510 UTC) on Thursday, Oct. 1.

Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Joshua Kutryk and NASA astronaut Luke Delany piloted a pair of T-38 jets from NASA’s Johnson Space Center and landed at the Launch and Landing Facility under a largely cloud-less sky and with a light breeze.

NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins rode alongside Kutryk and Roscosmos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryantnikov flew with Delaney. This will be the first trip to space for all except Watkins, the commander of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission, who is making her second trip to space.

“Arriving here today for us as a crew represents both kind of the culmination and the beginning of a journey for us. We’ve been training together as a crew for over a year now, so it is the culmination of all of that work and effort, and we’re so grateful to the teams of experts around the world that have gotten us prepared and ready for this,” Watkins said. “But it is also the beginning. We are excited, we are ready to fly, we are ready to join the Expedition 75 crew on board the International Space Station.”

NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, commander of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission, talks to members of the press after arriving at the Kennedy Space Center on Sept. 26, 2026. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

The four crew members were originally slated to launch to the ISS on Sept. 12, but an oxidizer leak in their Dragon spacecraft, Grace, caused NASA and SpaceX to delay the mission while repairs were made. NASA announced the delay in an Aug. 29 Commercial Crew Program (CCP) blog post.

It was roughly two-and-a-half weeks before the next update came in a Sept. 16 ISS blog post, in which NASA simply said that SpaceX “successfully replaced an oxidizer valve in Dragon’s propulsion system after a leak was detected earlier in processing.” No further details were provided in either the ISS or CCP blogs.

“We are, first of all, so grateful to the teams on the ground, the SpaceX team here at the Cape, who were able to identify the issue with the vehicle on the ground with time to address it. And then for the teams that were able to identify the most appropriate, safest path forward to fix the issue,” Watkins said in response to a question about the repair work from Spaceflight Now.

On Friday, NASA and SpaceX held a Flight Readiness Review at KSC to review their readiness to progress towards the final steps of prelaunch preparations. That includes an engine test of the Falcon 9 rocket, which is scheduled for Sunday, and a launch day rehearsal with the crew, planned for Tuesday.

NASA astronaut Luke Delaney, pilot of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission, talks to members of the press after arriving at the Kennedy Space Center on Sept. 26, 2026. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

The arrival of the crew in Florida marked a homecoming for Delaney, the mission’s pilot and Florida native.

“Coming here in Kennedy, coming back to Florida, it’s definitely near and dear to my heart. I did grow up pretty close to here. I got to watch Space Shuttle launches, and now I’m going to get to see it from a little bit different perspective, I think, in the coming days,” Delaney said.

“So truly excited to be here, truly thankful for all the teams that have made it happen, and just a shout out to our aircraft operations folks today that got us the jets and everything together and made it work out a perfect flight over here today.”

The mission is also a longtime coming for Kutryk and another big moment for CSA. Kutryk will be the second Canadian to head to space this year, following Jeremy Hansen’s flight as part of the Artemis 2 mission in April.

“Today has been a day of reflecting on gratitude, frankly. I mean, I’ve flown into the Cape probably 100 times, but today is just so special,” Kutryk said. “To leave Houston, you see all the people there, all the family there. You feel the support all the way across. You see the crowds of people here. You really feel that support. And so when you talk about being grateful for everything that we have, I mean, we, the crew, we feel like some of the luckiest people in the world.”

The four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission arrived onboard T-38 jets at the Kennedy Space Center on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026. Left to right: Roscomos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov, NASA astronaut Luke Delaney, NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

What should I ask Terence Tao?

Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him.  And he has a new book coming out Six Math Essentials.  So what should I ask him?

The post What should I ask Terence Tao? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Saturday assorted links

1. One way to use screens less, will it catch on?

2. Roon as cultural critic.

3. The Greenland deal sounds pretty good for America?

4. The cultures that are New England?

5. Yet newer results on AI-driven labor demand.

6. Ayn Rand as movie extra.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

Goodbye Victoria

Among our grandad’s papers was his memoir of his childhood in Ipswich, Suffolk. It had been typed up, double-spaced, with a preface and postscript by his son, our dad, John Gyford.

I’ve added a few extra paragraph breaks and also included many related period photos. Most of these are from the collection of David Kindred on Flickr with kind permission. The dates of many are unknown but hopefully they aren’t too far from being contemporary with these memories.


§ Goodbye Victoria:
An Edwardian Childhood in Ipswich

by Criss Barrington Gyford


§ Preface

My father recorded his childhood memories on two tapes during 1982. Before recording them he prepared himself a series of notes and scripts from which to talk. This document represents a transcript of the first tape supplemented by the scripts for the second tape. The latter, although recorded and heard thereafter by myself, has since disappeared but my recollection of its contents matches those of the script, which has survived.

John Gyford


§ These are the memories of Criss Barrington Gyford, born at 7.30 on the evening of December 7th 1901 at 90 Fore Street, Ipswich, Suffolk.

A photo of a bit of a photo album, black card with an embossed frame, and a square cut-out at the centre. Through the cut-out we see a sepia-toned photo of the head and shoulders of a young boy, possibly early teenage, facing the camera, in front of a brick wall. He's wearing a dark suit jacket, a dark shirt, with a prominent white colloar overlapping both the jacket and a bow tie. He's wearing a hat, that looks soft with a narrow brim. He's just about smiling.
Criss Barrington Gyford as a boy.

My father had the same name as myself, Criss Barrington, and he married Bessie Florence Potter on the 13th of February 1899 at St. Matthew’s Church in Ipswich. He was then a soldier in the Suffolk Regiment and before the end of the year was in South Africa for the Boer War. He was wounded in one of the skirmishes out there and returned to this country in 1900 and was discharged from the Army as unfit for further service and in 1901 I was born. That was the year in which Queen Victoria died and if I were to write my autobiography I think I should call it Goodbye Victoria because I seem to have been brought up in quite a Victorian atmosphere. My parents, my uncles and aunts and grandparents were all real Victorians and the few years of King Edward’s reign didn’t seem to alter that: nothing altered I think until the end of the 1914-18 war.

My father was the son of Charles Gyford, who as a young man was a blacksmith in the village of Bedfield in Suffolk, but who later came to Ipswich to work in Ransome’s foundries.

A photo of a vast warehouse type room filled with many rows of workbenches. There are many men and boys at work on bits of metal. They're all wearing flat caps and either jackets or waistcoats.
Ransomes factory, 1916. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

He married Maria Stevens and they produced a family of twenty-three children of which my father was the youngest. The twenty-second child had died before my father was born and it used to be a family joke that my grandmother had twenty-two children twice. Many of the children died in childhood and my father used to say that some of his brothers he never even met or knew – they moved out of Ipswich and he never got to meet them. The only names I can recall are Albert, Edgar, David, Arthur, Samuel and two sisters, Laura and another sister who lived in Harwich but whose name I cannot recall. Five of his brothers actually served together in the Boer War. My father was very proud of his Army service and he did very well for the few years that he was in the Army, playing cricket and football for the Suffolk Regiment. He was stationed at Bury St. Edmunds and on some occasions turned out for Bury St. Edmunds football team.

My mother was the daughter of Thomas and Mary Potter. Tom Potter was for some time a blacksmith also at Ransome’s foundries but later became a market gardener on the Felixstowe Road. Her mother had kept a corner shop on what later became known as Potter Street in the St. Clement’s area of Ipswich but most of my mother’s time was spent on the market garden in Felixstowe Road until she married my father. She was one of a family of eleven, so really I had quite a number of uncles, aunts and cousins but most of the Gyford people seem to have moved out of Ipswich although practically all the Potter people remained in the area so I had plenty of relations to whom I could have turned but somehow it didn’t turn out that way. The names of the Potter family are contained in the family Bible which is now in John’s possession. Strangely enough my mother, after her marriage, didn’t seem to be particularly friendly with her own family. She was on quite good terms with her sisters Ruth, Anna and Eda but for the rest of the family she seemed to have no time. I never really understood what it was all about but the result was that I didn’t enjoy the company of cousins as much as you would expect me to have done.

A photo of a very old building with 'Ye Olde Neptune Inn' painted on the front. It has leaded windows, a tall brick chimney. Two small boys and a man stand on the pavement in front.
The Old Neptune Inn on Fore Street, a couple of doors along from Gyford’s shop. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Number 90 was built in the early 1500s, about the same time as the Neptune Inn. It was timber framed, almost certainly oak, with exterior and interior walls of lathes and plaster with pargetting designs of trefoil and open rose. Actually the Sorrel Horse inn on the opposite side of Fore Street dates from 1490 and so the house might have been built before 1500.

A photo of an old building that looks like a house with a small courtyard in front.
The Sorrell Horse, Fore Street. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Whilst Dad was serving in South Africa, Mother had converted the front room of number 90 into a greengrocer’s shop, based on her market gardening experiences I expect, and as soon as Dad was physically fit they began to build up the business. Two or three years later they bought the next door house, number 92 and doubled the shop area and made the backrooms of 92 into a large store room.

A photo of a street of old houses. The first floors mostly jut out slightly over the ground floors. Some have dormer windows in the roofs. The building closest on the left is numbers 90-92 and its sign reads 'Fruiterer. C. B. Gyford. Greengrocer. There are no vehicles but tram tracks are just visible on the road surface.
Fore Street around 1910, with C. B. Gyford’s shop on the left. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

A new doorway upstairs gave us a very large room always known as the ‘best room’. The ceiling was a very well carved plaster one and very ornate. There was a large three oil-lamp chandelier in the centre, which you pulled down for lighting and was then pushed up and kept in place by counter weights: there were also two bracket oil-lamps, one each side of fireplace. A large bow window overlooking Fore Street was a favourite vantage point for me. From this window I saw the laying down of the original tramlines and the putting up of overhead electric wires and the first electric trams to replace the horse-drawn ones. Also I could watch the lamp lighter with his long hooked pole and lighted taper as he lit the gas lamps – I could see twenty-one lamps from that window.

One lamp-post became known to the family as Bessie’s lamp-post because my sister when suddenly turning back to come home from school struck her face on the metal post and burst her eyebrow open and had to have it stitched up at the doctor’s to which she was taken by taxi summoned by phone. Number 90 had the phone connected in its early days – the telephone number was 612 and there was a white metal sign outside the shop with a blue bell design on it and the words ‘you may telephone from here’, the only such sign in the area. All the same, Mother was not at all keen on using the phone – “too much electricity is not good”, she said.

A photo of a wide junction in a town. The impressive stone buildings are three stories tall. Many have arched windows, pillars, and balconies. There is a double-decker tram and the only other vehicle is a two-wheel cart pulled by one horse. There are a few dozen people in dark clothes, mostly men.
A tram on The Cornhill, 1906 or 1907. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The tramcars came along Fore Street when I was about three years old. The double lines outside number 90 meant that any cart delivering goods had to move over to allow the trams to pass and this used to cause a lot of trouble with the drivers especially if the tramcar driver kept clanging his bell. Where a single line existed then the conductor used his stick to change the lights from green to red to indicate that his car was coming onto the single line. The trams were open-topped with leather aprons for the seats for the passengers in wet weather. They were double-ended trams so there was no need to turn around. There were horse-drawn cabs on the Cornhill in what we call now taxi lines, taxis – motor-car taxis – appearing in about 1909. There was a cabmens’ shelter on the Cornhill for the drivers’ rest and refreshment. This site was later occupied by the Boer War memorial, which was later put in Christchurch Park and re-dedicated by the Prince of Wales after the 1914-18 War.

A shelter on The Cornhill around 1894, before electric trams replaced horse-drawn trams in 1903. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

A regular thing at the private houses that still existed in Fore Street was the cleaning of doorsteps every morning with a scaling stone and a whitener. There was also the sharpening of carving knives on the doorstep for carving the meat joints. Sunday meals were taken to bakers’ ovens for a few pence. In those days I would be sent for a half-shoulder of lamb, knuckle-end, which would cost two shillings and threepence. There would be children in the shop buying four penny worth of scraps for the poor homes in Waterworks Street and places like that. Sugar was threepence a pound, you could buy double weight margarine for sixpence a pound; double weight meant that if you asked for a pound for your sixpence you would get two pounds. My mother always gave us suet pudding or batter pudding for the first dinner course unless the main course was meat pudding or steak and kidney or rabbit pie. Rabbits cost eightpence or ninepence each skinned, the skins fetching threepence or fourpence.

A photo of one side of a street of old two and three storey buildings. The closest is H. Wells, a 'pork butcher' with a huge queue of people leading from the open door away down the street.
H. Wells butcher, Fore Street. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

One of the earliest things I recall is wearing a white furry coat and a matching beret hat and having my father’s South African Boer War Queen’s Medal pinned on my coat and being carried on my dad’s shoulder on his way home from the Cornhill where he had been presented with the medal by Lord Kitchener who had come down to Ipswich for that special purpose to present medals to the Suffolk Regiment. But I particularly remember looking down the steps to a fruit shop in Westgate Street: evidently the road had been built up, but the shop itself was well below street level probably because the ceiling of the shop was not raisable. To me it always seemed peculiar that a shop should be down steps instead of up.

The back doors of number 90 Fore Street opened onto a driftway which led down to the docks and as a little boy I spent a lot of time playing down there on the barges. The chief cargo was grain for the maltings and lucca beans which were processed into cattle food.

A photo of two men on an old barge, either side of a large wooden ship's wheel. They're both wearing flat caps, jackets and trousers, and each has a cigarette in his mouth. On the dockside behind them are carts and men.
A pair of barge hands in the 1920s at Neptune Key, roughly behind the location of the Gyford shop.(Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Opposite number 90 there were two maltings, one kept by Mr. Meakins, another by Mr. Chinnery. These maltsters lived in a company house and had to attend to the large semi-underground maltings in their backyards. Meakin’s house had been once occupied by Captain Eldred, the round-the-world voyager, and his alleged captain’s cap is now in the Christchurch Mansion museum. Chinnery’s yard also had stables for the horses that pulled the grain carts that took the malted substance to breweries. It was chiefly Cobbold’s brewery of course and in those days boys with pails and shovels followed the horses to collect the manure, most of the children being barefoot. It was a regular thing in those days to see the women going to Sneezums the pawnbroker on Saturday mornings to get out their husband’s and children’s Sunday clothes and then they would return them on Monday again because they needed the money.

A photo of a street of two and three storey buildings. On the right we can see part of a shop and its sign 'A. J. Snee…'. In the distance is 'Henry Sneezum, Pawnbroker and Clothier'. Closer than that is 'Albion House. General Drapery. Fancy Drapery.' Between them is 'Cycle Agent'. There are two horse-drawn carts on the road.
Fore Street, with Henry Sneezum, pawnbroker and clothier, in the distance. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

On Tuesday mornings, if I was at home, I would make a point of going to the window of the upstairs room because Tuesday was the market day when the cattle from Nacton Road, Felixstowe Road, Bucklesham Road would be driven down Bishop’s Hill, along Fore Street round into Salthouse Street on their way to the market. Of course there were practically no cattle vans in those days – a lot of them came by road. The cattle from Foxhall Road came down the Back Hamlet and occasionally two herds would join together, which would mean great excitement along Fore Street. Of course they were followed by a good many boys with their shovels and pails, etc.

Another memorable occasion were the horse-drawn timber carts. These carts had two separate bogies; the front bogie was under the forward part of the actual trunk that was on the timber cart and the other bogie was nearer the other end of the tree trunk so that the actual tree trunk made the body of the cart. These were drawn usually by four Shire horses, two in the shafts attached to the front bogy and the other two in traces ahead of it, and they found it very difficult to round the bend from Salthouse Street to Fore Street – it was about a forty-five degree turn and there had to be a lot of backwardsing and forwardsing before they could actually get round. Of course that would hold up all the traffic, including all the trams, and would make quite a jam.

A photo of a cobbled street junction. There is a large, slightly blurred, dog in the foreground. Opposite the junction a shop has the sign 'Draper. G. H. Jary'. Four men are standing around, wearing caps, one of them very blurred. One of the buildings in the background is half-timbered.
A Victorian view of Fore Street from the junction with Salthouse Street. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The horses then towed the trunk along and went down Duke Street towards Brown’s the timber merchants down by the docks. These trace horses were stationed in the forecourt of the Carpenters Arms at the foot of Bishop’s Hill. These horses were used to help to pull heavy loads up the hill. Bishop’s Hill was much narrower than it is now, with big hedges each side. At the top of the hill, at the junction of Nacton Road and Felixstowe Road, was a large water trough, for the cattle of course, and with metal cups for human drinking, and a lower trough for things like sheep and dogs.

Although cycles were then very popular and the motor-car was just beginning to be more used, the chief means of locomotive power was still the horse. My father had two horses – the names I remember are Charlie and Black Bess. These were used to pull two trolley vans that took vegetables round to two parts of the town: one part was between Fore Hamlet and Back Hamlet such as Foxhall Road, Rose Hill Road and places like that, where there were very few shops and where people were only too pleased to buy their vegetables from the van. The other van used to do the area of Henley Road and Westerfield Road, a better residential area but again an area with very few shops. Dad didn’t know much about horses so of course he had a horseman, a fellow called Tom, whom I particularly remember because he was the first person I knew who had a gramophone and he brought this gramophone along to one of our Christmas parties where the children were absolutely amazed and surprised at hearing such a thing. In fact I think Dad often wondered where Tom got his money from to afford such a thing as a gramophone which was expensive in those days. Anyway Tom used to look after the horses quite well and of course he took around one of the vans and the other van was taken around by a fellow called Bob. I learned to (cycle) ride by going along Fore Street with my Dad and round by the Earl Grey and then coming back again: the cross traffic wasn’t so much of a problem in those days and I soon learned well. Bessie of course was carried on Dad’s cycle if we went any distance, such as to Felixstowe or places like that. Later Bessie and myself cycled to Boyton – eighteen miles that was – when we were staying with our Aunt Ruth. On one occasion on a Sunday, Dad drove over to visit us whilst we were there. He drove over with Charlie pulling the trap but unfortunately he let the horse fall at the Eagle gates. The horse was stabled afterwards at Boyton but because it had running joint oil from its knees owing to the fall it had to be shot: I’ve always remembered that. The place at Boyton where Aunt Ruth lived was the old Mill House with the Mill stump still standing.

Next door to number 90 was a very small shop between 90 and the Neptune Inn. It was just a shop, with one room at the back and two bedrooms upstairs. It was occupied by Haggars, that was the name of the people; they were pork butchers, an elderly couple who had a niece who had a daughter by her cousin who had emigrated to Australia on the promise of sending for her but he never did so.

A photo of two shops on a street. 90-92 is C. B. Gyford, Greengrocer, its sign obscured by foliage presumably fixed to the shop. Outside are many barrels, a cart and displays of fruit and vegetables including bananas. Next door the shop has a sign reading 'E. Haggar'. Five men are standing around along with one boy and then a woman in Gyford's shop doorway.
Fore Street around 1905, with C. B. Gyford’s shop in the foreground and Haggars next door. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The cousin was the son of this elderly couple and so she lived there: it was quite a serious matter in those days of course, this illegitimacy. In the doorway of this shop there were two large hooks, one on each doorpost, from which the carcass of a pig was suspended and cut in halves vertically with a large chopper. This happened twice a week so I suppose they made their living out of these two pigs. Their sausages I always particularly noticed because they had rather large pieces of meat in them and mother used to complain a lot about that. Then one day she learned that they were going to get a new mincer: she was quite excited about it. Lo and behold! – when the new mincer arrived it had exactly the same sized cutters so they still got the large pieces of meat in the sausages. I do remember the scraps of solidified pork fat which they used to sell and which we often had for a five o’clock meal. We used to call them scraps but I believe some people call them scratchings.

Next door to this shop of course was the Neptune Inn, not as some books says the oldest inn in Ipswich – the Sorrel Horse was at least twenty or thirty years older. Within 200 yards of number 90 I should think there were at least thirty pubs whose names I will try to recall. On the corner of Salthouse Street there were three pubs and opposite to the corner one was the Beehive Inn. On the corner of Church Lane was a pub later converted into a fish-shop: on the corner of Fore Street and Waterworks Street was another pub (later) converted into a shop for second-hand furniture. On the opposite side of Fore Street was the Wheatsheaf, whilst at the Eagle Street – Tacket Street junction there was a pub on each corner, four pubs at one crossways. In the other direction there was the Vine public house in Church Street, now part of Grimwade Street, and there were three more at the corners of the Grimwade and Church Street intersection. At the junction with Back Hamlet and Fore Hamlet was quite a large pub, the Earl Grey and there was a pub called the Star on the opposite corner near the Grimwade Memorial Chapel at the corner of Long Street.

A photo of a wide junction on a street. There's a four-wheeled wagon with no horses stood in the open space. Behind it is a two-story building with a grand roof. There's no traffic on the roads and only a few people on the pavements.
A Victorian view of Fore Street by William Vick, at the junction of Back Hamlet (left) and Fore Hamlet (right). The Earl Grey pub is behind the wagon. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

On the opposite corner of Long Street was another pub later converted to a shop. On the other side of the Earl Grey there was one each side of Duke Street which also had a passage leading to the dock-side where there were two more dockside pubs. There were several more pubs along Duke Street opposite Ransomes works and opposite the Gas Works and up Little Wykes Bishop Street. In those days pubs and butchers’ shops both had sawdust sprinkled on the floors. Wykes Bishops Street by the way was the street in which my father was born and where he lived until he was fourteen and from where he went to school, at Cavendish Street school, and I can recall my mother, who was very fussy about her dresses had a dressmaker who lived somewhere around Wykes Bishop Street. I particularly remember the room which she used – it was used as a sort of fitting room, because she used to take me with her so that I would know where to take Bessie for her dresses. The room had dozens of Goss China ornaments on the many shelves around the room: I always remember those.

My sister Bess was born when I was three and a half but I don’t remember anything about the event or about the earlier years of our life together but I do recall that I had to take her to this dressmakers to have her dresses made. My mother was very, very keen on having everything tailor-made if possible; even my suits and shoes had to be tailor made. This really was a drawback, because both these things were soon too small. The shoes being ready made (tailor made) by the time I got them – and it sometimes took the shoemaker a couple of months to make them – they were already getting too small for me and this was very bad for my toes. The same with the suits: by the time I got the suits and had worn them for a few months then the sleeves were too short and the trousers were getting too short for me because I was growing quite quickly. The same thing applied to things like tight kid gloves which we had to wear and which in my case gave me chilblains. Shoes came from a man called Fitch, whose business was actually run under the name of Daldry which was his father-in-law’s name. We used to go to parties when the Fitch children had them and I always recall that from their back bedroom window upstairs you could overlook the Jewish cemetery. I wonder if it’s still there: if it is its where a new by-pass road is going to be constructed. That’s where my shoes were made. My suits came from a Mr. Pierrepoint in Tacket Street opposite the Salvation Army citadel. The Salvation Army citadel was a former theatre where David Garrick made his early appearances. Later my suits came from J. and J. Edwards in Carr Street, then later on much more posh suits from Ridleys.

A photo of a street with mainly three-storey brick buildings. The main one has a big sign painted on one end reading 'Tannkard Inn. Cobbold Light Dark.' We can see the edge of the building at the far left and part of a big sign reading 'CITADEL'.
Tacket Street with the Salvation Army citadel just visible on the left, next to the Tankard Inn. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Further from number 90 beyond the Neptune Inn was Beard’s, grocers and wine merchant. Half their place was a shop and the other part was a rather nice residence. Next to them Barnard’s the corn chandler’s and Isaac Lord’s house and their coal warehouse which led down to the dockside. Then came another fruit shop kept by Richard Potter, who actually was mother’s cousin and who set up shop there in opposition to the Gyfords with the idea of closing them down but of course that just didn’t happen. Then there was Fenner’s cycle shop and Bloomfields the bakeries – which was always a very nice-smelling place of course because the baking was done on the premises. Another pub on the corner and on the opposite side of Fore Street from the pub was Taylor’s sweet shop and Taylor the hairdresser. Further down towards number 90 on the opposite side was the Beehive Inn, then Sneezum’s the pawnbrokers and a furniture shop which later became a communal butcher in the 1914- 18 war, and Jackson’s the chemists. Jackson made his own pills and he actually showed me how to make these pills, which of course was very interesting, with a little wooden press thing. He made things like Jackson’s Little Liver and Kidney Pills: he also had Jackson’s Famous Cough Mixture. His daughter Mary Jackson became a very good concert pianist. Next to them was Meakins, a place I’ve already mentioned, then Mrs. Watson’s boarding house for working men exactly opposite number 90: then Keels’ – Mr. Keel was a solicitor’s clerk, then came Chinnery’s maltings. Next to that a doss-house for poor men, then Betts’ who had home-made sweets and on the corner of what was then Church Street, now Grimwade Street, was Ribbon’s hardware shop, which was below road level, you went down about two steps into the shop. On the other corner was a shop that was empty for some time but later was occupied by Barnard’s who moved from further up Fore Street, that’s next to the Sorrel Horse which I think was built in in 1694. Then came Edward’s the bakers, then a tobacconists and then the social settlement, to which I used to go on Sunday evenings with my grandad Potter except in the summer term.

A photo of a junction on a street with old two and three storey buildings. There's no traffic and just a handful of people including a slightly blurry girl in a dress in the foreground carrying a large package.
Another view of Fore Street, with the Lion and Lamb pub at the centre. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Both sides of my family were staunch Liberals, the Labour Party having had little foothold in agricultural Ipswich in those days. My grandmother Gyford’s sister Annie Stevens had married a Daniel Goddard who was a foreman at the Gas Works. He later became a worker representative on the newly formed Gas Board – to begin with the gas had been manufactured by Ransome’s as a sideline to their engineering works and Ransome himself was a Liberal and a Quaker who worshipped at the Friends Meeting House in St. Peters Street. Getting back to this chap Goddard, he was chosen as Liberal candidate in the 1906 General Election and beat the sitting Conservative candidate. Ipswich had two parliamentary seats in those days and Goddard’s successful partner was the Rev. Sylvester Horne who had three sons, the most prominent of them being the radio and T.V. personality, Kenneth Horne. The Chairman of the Ipswich Liberal Association was Major Rowley Ellison whose daughter married Isaac Foot, a strong Liberal and the Foots had three sons of whom the most notorious is Michael Foot whom I believe people think is a Socialist.

A yellow, black and white card or poster with black and white photos of the heads of two men, one with white hair, moustache and beard (labeled COBBOLD), the other with glasses and moustache (GODDARD). A banner across the top reads 'IPSWICH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION'. In the middle it says 'SOUVENIR, 1906' and underneath 'THE LIBERAL MEMBERS'.
A postcard of the Liberal candidates for the Ipswich parliamentary election of 1906, Felix Cobbold and Daniel Ford Goddard. (From Wikipedia)

Getting back to that chap Goddard again. He won the next General Election in 1910, was knighted and became a Privy Councillor so rejoiced in the billing as the Rt. Hon. Sir Daniel Ford Goddard, but he was beaten in the General Election after the 1914-18 war, when Ipswich became a one-member seat; he was beaten by Captain Ganzoni. Ganzoni later purchased Belstead House on the outskirts of Ipswich near the Ostrich Inn on Wherstead Road, and Ganzoni became Lord Belstead and his son is now a worthy junior minister in Mrs. Thatcher’s circus.

Before the 1914-18 war Goddard used to hold regular Sunday evening services for men in the social settlement and I used to wait outside the social settlement at about 6.30 for my grandfather to come along.

A colourised photo with a three storey brick building in the background and a double-decker green electric tram in the foreground.
A postcard showing the Social Settlement on Fore Street, probably in 1904. (From the Ipswich Society)

He would take me in with him although I was only ten years old at the time. There was the usual hymn-singing, mostly sailors’ hymns like Eternal Father Strong to Save and that sort of thing, and there was usually a lantern-slide lecture given either by Goddard, who had travelled quite a bit, or by some guest speaker. But the enthusiasm was mainly in the Liberal cause there were practically no socialists in those days but it was quite interesting and I enjoyed going to these things which ceased of course when war broke out.

My mother was very fond of crocheting and knitting: she would make cushion covers using the cloths which were marked out in squares and using thick cotton in a circular pattern in each square: it made a very nice design and so we had many nice coloured cushions about the place. My dad had no particular hobby, he was concerned mainly with the extension of the shop and the fact that he was very much now in the wholesale business as well and he also acted as a ship’s chandler – he supplied practically all the vegetables and meat to the various ships in the Ipswich docks. Many of these of course were sailing ships; I have seen as many as four full-sized sailing ships at one time on the far side of the docks. And of course steamships were becoming much more important then and several of those would be in the docks at the same time and he would have the supplies for those. He had also opened another shop in Brook Street and had a third one in St. Matthews Street, so he got very busy in that way and he had no particular hobbies of any sort. He never smoked cigarettes or a pipe but was very fond of cigars and he usually smoked those at the weekends: I would be sent to Dotheby’s, the tobacconists in Orwell Place, now part of Tacket Street, to buy the cigars, which were called Torpedoes and cost threepence each.

A busy street scene with a few dozen people quite dressed up. Women and girls are wearing long dresses and wide-brimmed hats. Men are wearing a variety of caps, boaters, bowler hats, etc. A man in the foreground with a bowler hat has a white shirt and tie, a three-piece suit, and is smoking a pipe. A small boy is looking at the camera, wearing a wide straw hat with a white collar spreading over his shoulders and chest.
Orwell Place, around 1910. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Most of the shopkeepers in those days wore waistcoats and white aprons; the butchers wore striped aprons and straw hats.


§ My first school was Clifford Road Infants School. I went up Back Hamlet, then turn left along an unmade road across Grove Lane which was not then built up. There was high ground on each side of Grove Lane in those days and there were deep gulleys down the sandy banks where the children clambered up or down. There were open fields from Grove Lane to Clifford Road itself which appeared to be on the edge of the town although there were houses then along Foxhall Road. The headmistress was a Miss Garrard who lived in Palmerston Road and who treated me as a rather favourite child – probably because she was a school friend of my mother and a staunch Liberal. Both my sister and myself were able to read well by the time we started school. I don’t know why that was, as I cannot recall ever getting any reading lessons, but there were always books available in our house, mostly along religious lines. My favourite reading material was comics – Comic Cuts on Tuesdays with its Dreamy Daniel and Weary Willie, and Chips on Thursday with its tramp Tired Tim and its back page Casey Court which was a weekly wonder of Do it Yourself in those early days. Other periodicals I recall were Tit-bits and Answers, but it was not until I was nine years old that I graduated to the Boy’s Own Paper, and the novels of R. G. Henty and Rudyard Kipling and Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes.

Comic Cuts from 15 October 1910, and Chips from 1 August 1908. (From Wonderfully Vulgar, Comic Cuts and Chips)

At Clifford Road school during the reading lessons each day I was given a duster and told to dust the shelves and silver cups in the hallway and so pass my time because I was such a good reader – it was a waste of time to sit in at the reading class, I was much ahead of any of the class. At eight years of age I transferred to the Central School in Smart Street off Foundation Street where the headmaster was Mr. Harrison. There was a fee of 6d a week at this school although it was a Council school: girls were on the ground floor of the building and boys on the first floor. What I particularly recall was that on Empire Day we would all parade in the playground and the Australian flag would be raised whilst we sang ‘Rule Britannia’ and we were told that on that same day the Union Jack had been raised at our corresponding school in Ipswich, Queensland. At the end of my first year there, Mr. Harrison retired and was replaced by a Mr. Welburn who was the first graduate head of a primary school in Ipswich. He had a B.Sc. and was also well-known locally as a musician.

My sister Bess began her schooling at the age of five at Miss Banks’ private school in Foundation Street which meant that I could take her to school as it was only just round the corner from the Central School. I believe Miss Banks’ fees were 6d a day. It was from the Central School that I took the eleven plus exam for a scholarship and passed, much to the annoyance of the parents of my school chum, Percy Gilbert, who lived in Church Street and who did not pass his 11+. According to my mother the chief objection to me being given a scholarship was that I was only ten and a half years old but that the Gilbert boy was eleven, and so I ought not to qualify for another year. Anyway, we both went on to the Secondary School that September, although I think the Gilbert boy had to pay half-fee. Actually, in September the Secondary School did not resume its school year until ten days after the Central School resumed and my parent insisted that I returned to the Central School for those ten days, much to my annoyance at the time, but it was all for the best because I was placed in the 5th Form where a Mr. Murgatroyd introduced me to Algebra, and from that time onwards Mathematics seemed to become reasonably easy for me. I was the only one in the first form in my new school who had ever done any algebra.

I realise that I seem to have skimmed over my early days without giving much detail of what I did with my time. Up to the age of about six I had to wear a smock-like overall to protect my clothes when playing in the back yard – many children wore overalls in those days. Apart from the back yard to play in, there were also the store-sheds, the stables and a very large loft over the shed and stables. There was also a large concrete paved corridor leading to the outside lavatory which had no cistern but where there always seemed to be a small stream flowing into the docks which flushed the W.C. Looking back I would think that the stream flowed under the house because our kitchen was built up on piles as an addition to the original building. I kept a number of pets at various times – rabbits, guinea pigs and some pigeons and chocolate coloured doves in the loft. I also had a goat and a goat-cart similar to the ones that could be hired on the front at Felixstowe. One day I borrowed a broody hen from Grandad Potter and successfully hatched out a dozen chicks but the rats got the lot. Creatures I didn’t keep were rats and mice, the hollow plaster walls were alive with them: you could hear them running along the walls. We always had two or three cats which kept the rats and mice away from the shop and the store rooms.

A photo of an area of grass and trees with a small single storey building in the background. The sun is casting shadows. There are lots of adults and children sitting, walking and playing. Women and girls in long dresses and, usually, wide-brimmed hats. The men most often in flat caps and suits.
Christchurch Park. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

During holiday time, Bess and I would spend a lot of time in Christchurch Park playing cowboys and Indians, which was the outcome of our Saturday visits to Poole’s Picture Palace in Tower Street. Each Saturday we were given tuppence, two old pennies, and that was usually spent as a halfpenny for two ounces of pear drops, a halfpenny for a comic and one penny for the cinema. As you entered the cinema you threw your penny into an open box – no nonsense about tickets then – the box was under the watchful eye of a small man always called “Monkey” and he could spot a foreign coin at once.

A photo of a cinema auditorium looking over the seats directly at the screen. There are balconies on either side.
Poole’s Picture Palace. (From Ipswich Film Society)

We used not to arrive too early at the cinema, because the early comers were ushered into the main body of the hall and had to sit on hard wooden seats whereas latecomers were allowed upstairs to occupy the plush seats. Of course, the films were silent but accompanied by a pianist and the roar that went up when the show began was something out of this world. There were usually three films – a serial where the villain was always putting the heroine in danger. The villain was always greeted with hisses and at the end of the film when the girl had been rescued and was being kissed by the hero there were boos and sarcastic remarks. The second film was usually a newsreel which was watched in comparative silence and I think with some interest, but the third film was what we had all been waiting for – either cowboys and Indians or slapstick comedy such as Charlie Chaplin. We really did enjoy those shows although I always left the cinema with a terrible headache – I expect it was the flickering of the pictures, together with the complete absence of any ventilation.

This Poole’s Picture Palace was run by a family called Poole and began originally as a magic lantern show in Tower Street. Later on two other cinemas opened in Ipswich – the Cinema in Princes Street and the Picture House in Tavern Street near the Cornhill. One day at school in 1915 I was told by some chums: “Gyford, saw you on the newsreel last night”. An Army sergeant who had lived in Ipswich had been awarded the Victoria Cross and the local authority were giving him a civic reception and this was recorded by Gaumont British News. The first part of the reception was a drive from the railway station to the Town Hall in an open carriage along streets lined by cheering well-wishers. Of course, crowds of youngsters were following the carriage and there was I on my bicycle just behind the cab as it approached the Cornhill – brief moments of reflected glory.

A leaflet or advert with 'PICTURE HOUSE' at the top. Below that it says 'and Cafe. Tavern St., Ipswich.' Below is a photo of a cinema auditorium, looking quite grand, including chandeliers hanging from the ceiling.
The Picture House. (From Cinema Treasures)

I also recall early in 1917 the first ‘talking picture’. It was Shakespeare’s King Henry the Fifth and the prologue and the King’s speech before Harfleur were recited on the stage alongside the picture by an actor who made a very good job of it. We were taking Henry the Fifth for our School Certificate that year so practically all the form went to see the film. I can still recite many parts of that play including those two speeches.

I did reasonably well at school. My English was good so I found that Composition – which was really writing essays – became almost natural when combined with a little imagination. My spelling was good so I was always first in dictation – that was probably due to my early reading skills. Mathematics presented very few problems and I enjoyed both Physics and Chemistry, but Art was not in my line – I think my drawings and paintings must have been too futuristic. No doubt there was some early evidence of my later journalistic skills as in the 4th Form I founded and edited the form magazine – I still have three copies of that monthly publication including my wonderful ‘Adventures of Wharlie Whaplin’. Obviously I was aware of copyright and dare not use the name Charlie Chaplin. The magazines contain a list of those form-mates who had brought eggs to school for me to give to the wounded soldiers at the Suffolk Hospital.

Those school-days were occasionally interrupted by air raid warnings which were given by the sounding of the foundry sirens – what we called the ‘bulls’. On hearing these we were sent home until another siren sounded the all-clear. Although warnings were given on many occasions there were only a very few actual air raids. The warnings were caused by Zeppelins returning from raids elsewhere, chiefly on London, and of course on their way back to Germany, but one actual raid I do recall clearly. It was at about 7.30 on a Friday evening. My father was out looking at some property – he acted as a valuer for Oxborrows the estate agent. Mother was as usual doing her knitting and Bessie was at the table reading. I was doing my Geometry homework – Theorem 23, the square on the hypoteneuse equals the sum of the squares on the other two sides – suddenly a loud thump that rattled the windows. Mother said “under the table”. Before we got there there was another thump and then a third one, and we could hear the br-br-br of a Zeppelin’s engines dying away in the distance. A few minutes later my father rushed in, saying he had seen the Zeppelin.

A terrace of houses with the end demolished exposing a large hole and wooden lath in the remaining building. A man in uniform stands guard and two men and three boys look on from the opposite side of th
Damage from a World War I zeppelin raid. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The first bomb hit a house in Salthouse Street opposite the Customs House, killing two people and setting the house on fire. The second bomb fell into the dock and the third one into the river between the lock gates and Stoke Bridge – not bad aiming for those days so its probable that they wanted to smash the lock gates. The very first raid I recall was in the summer of 1915 when we were on holiday at Aunt Ruth’s in Hollesley. Uncle William was away on Army service. We were asleep when we were awakened by loud gunfire from the anti-aircraft guns in Shingle Street about a mile across the marshes. Bessie and I rushed into Auntie’s room in alarm but had great difficulty in arousing her – she was almost stone deaf and had heard nothing. No bombs were dropped but the Zeppelin was hit and came down in the North Sea.

A photo showing a terrace of houses with no roofs and daylight showing through the upstairs windows. Policemen stand outside.
Houses on Brook Hall Road destroyed by a zeppelin raid. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Going back to my schooldays something I enjoyed very much was the once-a-month nature ramble taken by the Nature Study master Mr. Bachelor. He usually took us in the direction of Westerfield or Henley, and how interesting I found it all – butterflies, insects, birds, flowers. One field I still remember vividly – flowering with cowslips and buttercups and a stream that was alive with tadpoles and banks lined with elms. Over fifty years later I motored out along the Henley Road to see if I could find that same field. I found it – not built on as I had feared but just as I had always pictured it, but without the tadpoles. Happy days.

Most of the popular songs of those days we heard from the whistling and singing of the errand boys, or from the many barrel organs and the hurdy-gurdies, both of which usually had a monkey to attract money. There was also the occasional performing dancing bear with a ring through its nose – the ring fastened to the end of a pole so that the bear had to rise on its hind legs and swivel round as the pole was moved about. Gramophones were also becoming more in use and my parents had a HMV gramophone – the first one with cylindrical records that began with the words “This is an Edison Bell record”, and then later a gramophone that had the flat records. These gramophones were both of course hand wound.

A photo of a street of terraced houses with three or four horse-drawn carriages driven by men in overcoats and top hats. The front-most one has two dark horses and is a hearse, with glass sides and flowers on top. In the background nine men carry a coffin down steps from the front door of one of the houses. A police sergeant looks on.
A funeral procession in Ipswich. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

In my young days many of the side roads would have straw spread over them if there was any illness in the road. That was to deaden the sound of horses hooves and the cart wheels – but of course this didn’t happen on main roads because of the tram-lines. Funerals seemed to be everyday events then – the horses with black plumes on their heads and black drapeson the outer side. Most of poorer people belonged to a funeral club into which they paid a few pence each week so that they could afford a proper funeral. For a child, it was usual for the small coffin to be placed under the seat where the driver sat and behind this was the cab-compartment for up to six people. In the country areas it was usual for the coffins to be either taken to a churchyard on a farm wagon or on a four-wheeled light platform carriage, similar to the conveyance used by the police to get the drunks to the police station on a Saturday night. I recall that one wall of my parent’s shop was hung with artificial wreaths under glass domes – small sizes were £1 each and large one £5. I think later the cemetery authorities banned these glass domes as they were considered to be dangerous.

My father did considerable business supplying fruit and vegetables to ships and I think he had some sort of financial arrangement with the dockside public house to put the ships’ business his way. Anyway we seemed to be friendly with a great number of publican’s children and we always went to their Christmas parties and they came to ours. I can recall seeing as many as three fully-rigged sailing ships as well as smaller barquantines and brigantines in the docks at one time together with several steam vessels and many barges moored side-by-side four deep. My father as a young man made a trip in a ketch to Blythe in Northumberland with a return cargo of coal – but he only made the one trip. He said that was enough for him.

The Arthur Fitger docked at Ipswich in April 1900. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Actually he began work at the age of 14 by going up to London to work with his eldest sister Laura who had a very flourishing flower business in the High Street, Stoke Newington. He came back to Ipswich two years later when she got married to a Mr. Stockles and his help was no longer needed. He said he often had to get up at four o’clock in the morning, in order to get to Covent Garden Market to buy the boxes of flowers. After leaving London he had a short spell in the Post Office at Ipswich in the sorting department before he joined the Army. He was stationed in the Ipswich Barracks in St. Matthews and it was whilst there that he met my mother who after their engagement came to live with her married sister, Anna in nearby Clarkson Street, and they were married at St. Matthew’s Church.

I was baptised in St. Clement’s church but I cannot recall either of my parents being church-goers, and I never attended St. Clement’s church. When I was about ten years of age I had to go with my sister Bess on Sunday morning to the Congregational Church at the foot of Back Hamlet – the Grimwade Memorial Chapel was its official name. I suppose the reasons for being sent there were that my Aunt Kate attended that chapel and the Grimwade family were staunch Liberals. John Henry Grimwade was the nephew of the ‘memorial’ Grimwade and had inherited the family business of gentlemen’s outfitters on the corner of Westgate Street and the Cornhill. The Grimwades lived in a large house on Fonnereau Road, and every Sunday morning the family of four would set out on its progress to church, walking down the centre of the road, across St. Margaret’s Plain, down Upper Orwell Street and Fore Street – there were no trams running on Sundays. John Henry attired in morning frock-coat and striped trousers with a shining black top hat, was obviously in charge and would doff his hat to any passerby who glanced at him. Bessie and I used to walk up Fore Street deliberately so that I could touch my cap to him and watch him pompously raise his topper – it quite amused us.

We also attended the Sunday School opposite the chapel and when I was twelve I was given the job of School Librarian, but during the war years my devotions wandered elsewhere and I attended the Wesleyan Methodist Church in Museum Street, St. Bartholomews’ Church off Felixstowe Road, the Salvation Army citadel in Tacket Street – my Aunt Hannah was a Salvationist and her son, my cousin Willie Newson, played a cornet in the band; and I went to the Town Mission which was a break-away from the Salvation Army and held its meetings in Poole’s Picture Palace in Tower Street. On one occasion I accompanied a Mr. Hilling, who was a business partner of my father, to a Quaker meeting in the Friends’ Meeting House in Friars Street and met Mr. Ransome the boss of Ransome, Sims and Jeffries the foundry people, but I did not like the informality of the service. On the whole I think I preferred the High Church Anglo-Catholicism of St. Bartholomew’s. I never attended a Roman Catholic church. I think there was only one in Ipswich and that was in Orwell Place, which is now part of Packet Street.

Reverting to my years at the Secondary School, the school building was in the Tower Ramparts and faced what was left of the original wall around the port of Gyppeswyk which was the former name of Ipswich. The Ramparts were about three foot above street level and about half-a-dozen houses had been built on the foundations.

A photo showing an empty street. On the right of the road a grass verge leads up to the pavement and a few houses. In the distance is a four-storey warehouse or factory with a tall chimeny and a covered bridge across the road. There is a very tall telegraph pole. There are six young boys and a young woman stood at various places looking at the camera.
Tower Ramparts in the 1880s, or maybe later. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

To the right was the north gate to the port – that is Northgate Street and to the left was the west gate where Westgate Street joined St. Matthew’s Street at a five-way junction known as Hyde Park Corner where Churchman’s the tobacconists had a shop with a more than life size figure of a Scotsman in full ceremonial dress in the doorway. Parallel to the Ramparts was Soane Street where there was a row of shops one of which was the school’s unofficial tuck-shop which we were allowed to patronise in the mid-morning break. The name over the doorway was M. A. Bell so of course it was known as Ma Bells. There was often an appetising smell of fried sausages from the kitchen as Ma Bell had given the sixth form prefects permission to do that. The majority of these lads and their followers in later years did not survive the horrors of the Somme, Passchendale and Hill 60. The shops have now disappeared together with the Ramparts which are now part of the car park.


§ Somehow it is always the pleasant things that remain most vivid in one’s memory and no doubt that is a good thing, as one doesn’t want to relive unpleasant happenings and actually I cannot recall any unpleasant things. My week-ends were chiefly occupied by playing on the dock-side, on and off the barges and I can recall more names of the barges now – the Ida which was built in 1895, the May built in 1901, the Alice May which was new to me in 1905, the Spinaway and the Cambria. Some of these still sail in the annual Thames Sailing Barge race.

A photo of a river with a pebbley bank leading down to it. There are a number of sail boats moored in various places, including a large barge in the centre with its sails furled.
A barge docked at Ipswich in the mid 1890s. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Many of the skippers were school-mates of my father or mother but although they knew me and my sister Bess, I have forgotten their names. On at least three occasions I sailed down-river on a barge and was put ashore at Pin Mill with my cycle and made my way home from there. There were three main barge owners: R & W Paul who had their own shipbuilding and repair yard just outside the lockgates. Paul’s barges had a white cross on the topsails, which I think represented a windmill because they were mainly concerned with wheat and barley milling. Cranfield’s was another milling firm that owned barges that brought not only grain but lucca beans for cattle feed. A third bargeowning firm was Measons whose emblem was a white moon – they were general carriers and did not do any milling. All these barges were well-maintained and several of the larger ones traded to the continent – these were gaff ketches known as ‘boomies’. The smaller ones were known as ‘spritties’ with a spritsail on the mizzen mast, although slightly larger barges had the spritsail on the main mast and a gaff on the mizzen. A barge with a crew of these was known as a ‘matie’, but many had only two in the crew, with an extra boy during the school holidays to help with the cooking.

A photo of the corner of some docks with five-storey warehouses lining the dock in the background. There are three barges docked next to each other, sails furled.
The barges Mabel, Fossil and Nautius in Ipswich Dock near Coprolite Street in the 1890s. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

When not playing on the docks or in our backyard, Bessie and I would go to Christchurch Park particularly to play Cowboys and Indians in the conifer plantations, re-living the films we had seen. Occasionally we would go up to Bishop’s Hill to the race course and make our way across to Grandad Potter’s garden where we were assured of plenty of fruit and the gift of a penny each from Grandad.

Naturally, summer holidays were the best for enjoyment. My first August holiday away from home was spent at Boyton, a few miles from Hollesby, which I have mentioned before. This was to stay with Uncle William Sharpe and Aunt Ruth, my mother’s sister. Uncle Will was secretary and accountant to the Hollesley Bay Labour Colony which was run by the London County Council and provided farm work for men from London who were on remand, or on probation or just, I suppose, were unemployed. The colony was concerned mainly with fruit-farming, with a considerable amount of arable land that was being won back from the surrounding heathland. There was dairy farming on the marshes, and they also did well breeding Suffolk horses, which they continued to breed even after mechanisation took over. Bessie and I cycled to Boyton via Woodbridge and Melton across miles of heathland dotted with small conifer woods and inhabited by hundreds – probably thousands – of rabbits. The first part of this heathland turned out to be the site of the Sutton Hoo Viking discoveries. Much of the heath is now occupied by Bentwaters, the airfield run jointly by the R.A.F. and the United States Air Force. The tiny village of Boyton was on slightly higher land than the surrounding marshes which probably explains the windmill there – our uncle’s house was called The Old Mill House and the mill stump still existed in the garden.

My main enjoyment of the holiday was wandering about the countryside, particularly along the marshes that led down to Hollesley Bay. There were quite a number of grass snakes to be seen – quite harmless as distinct from the poisonous adders on the heathland. A wonderful variety of birds especially on the shore of the bay – oyster catchers, spoonbills, and a variety of gulls which in those days seemed to keep well out to sea and show little interest in the farmlands as they do today. It was here that I was first introduced – by some village children – to the devil’s puff ball which when dried out gave a black powder that would heal up cuts and scratches – I have wondered since if this was a form of penicillin. There was only one shop in the village – a Post Office combined with a general store where one could buy sweets and which Bessie and I patronised each day and probably accounted for our popularity with the village children.

A photo showing a village road with a couple of brick buildings, and tall trees in the background.
Hollesley post office and stores around 1915. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

I recall the variety of sweets now – large pear drops, small pear drops, acid drops, orange suckers, lime suckers, mint humbugs, clove humbugs – all of which we enjoyed excepting the clove ones. Unfortunately the sweets were twice the price charged in Ipswich shops. We got only two ounces for a penny. I cannot recall any chocolate being on sale.

By the following year the Sharpes had moved to Ivy Cottage in Hollesley near to the Colony’s headquarters. Ivy Cottage was a large four bedroomed house with two large reception rooms and a very large kitchen. There was no bathroom but a very large kitchen table was hinged to the wall under the window and when this table top was raised it would reveal a white porcelain bath. Water was heated in a large coal-fired copper in the corner of the kitchen and the water transferred to the bath by means of a long-handled ladle. The cold water supply was from a pump over the sink and the pump needed to be primed by pouring in about a pint of water to make sure it would draw up from below. The closet was in an outside shed and consisted of a wooden seat over a large pail which was emptied each night by the night-soil man who would open a small trap-door at the back of the shed and empty the contents into a four wheeled tank drawn by a horse whose clumping hooves were sure to wake you up during the night. Cooking was done on a coal-fired oven and Aunt Ruth used to bake the most delicious rabbit pies I have tasted, supplemented by slices of fat pork. Fortunately, in view of her deafness, Aunt Ruth had very little household shopping to do – all foodstuffs were supplied by the colony, that was one of the perks of the job, so that at least twice a week fresh fruit and vegetables were delivered together with joints of meat, rabbits, hares, chickens and bread. But Auntie did bake her own cakes and, of course, the various meat pies.

The house stood in a large area of garden, mostly lawns and flower beds but it included a mixed woodland coppice which to me was a boy’s delight as it attracted many kinds of birds and I could climb the trees to locate and look at the eggs in the nests – I never robbed a single nest, I don’t think it occurred to me. On the opposite side of the roadway was a high bank of sand and this was riddled with holes made by sand martins which were flying in and out all day. When I tired of the garden I would wander across the marshes that stretched to what was left of Hollesley dock – it was said that quite a lot of smuggling went on here and gin was referred to as “a drop of Lloyd George” as he, when Chancellor of the Exchequer, had put a tax on spirits that made it more worthwhile to dabble in smuggling.

August of course, was the harvest month and I recall the excitement of being in a field of corn that was being cut. Armed with a stick, we children waited for the rabbits that were in the uncut section and then we moved in striking at the rabbits as they attempted to escape. I remember my disappointment when the first rabbit I struck down was taken from me and added to the other dead rabbits to be distributed to the field workers when the cut was finished. I did get a rabbit to take home but it was not the one I had killed.

A photo of a field with two large hay stacks, one half-way constructed. They are round and, when finished, have a conical top, reaching two or three storeys high. There are several men at work, a horse-drawn wagon, and a steam engine.
Harvest in Suffolk, around 1900. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

There were no combine harvesters in use at that time and the reaper-binder, drawn by two horses, cut the corn-stalks to within a few inches of the ground, arranged and tied them into sheaves which were then thrown clear of the binder. Workers then gathered up the sheaves and stacked them together, eight or ten sheaves to make the stooks which usually remained in the field for a day or two to dry out. Then a large horse-drawn farm cart was used to carry the sheaves to wherever the stack was to be built – usually in the corner of the field, to await the arrival of the threshing machine, which was usually towed by a traction-engine. The threshing machine was operated by a leather belt over the drive wheel which passed over the flywheel of the traction-engine. Then men with pitchforks passed the sheaves from the stack to a man on top of the machine and the man would cut the binder string and push the sheaf into the moving machinery. From one end of the thresher the grains would spill out into sacks and from the other end the stalks would be carried away on a moving belt to form a straw stack. Straw was in constant demand in those days as bedding for horses and cattle and there was no reason for burning it as happens today. Occasionally, if a farmer needed to get on with his ploughing he would set fire to the stubble, but as there was no standing straw there was not the nuisance of smoke as you get today when it is necessary to clear the fields of what seems to be a useless product – straw.

A photo of a steam engine attached by a long belt to another piece of wheeled machinery. Behind that is a high stack of hay and some kind of wide wooden ladder or conveyor leads up to the top of it. There are several men at work, many holding long-handled tools.
Threshing by steam power in Suffolk in the late 1920s. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The colony had its own shoeing-forge for the large number of horses and on a rainy day I would sit in the forge and watch the two shoe-smiths at their jobs and marvel at the docility of the huge Suffolk horses amidst all that hammering of steel, the smell of burning hoofs and the heat of the fire which was kept going by the blast from hand-operated bellows. There were occasional riding horses to be shod and the governor of the colony was a keen hunting man, as was his son Jack Barton who married one of the daughters of Sir Edmond Vestey, later Lord Vestey, the boss of the shipping line of refrigerated vessels and large cattle interests in Uruguay and Argentina. In 1916, because Aunt Ruth then had three children of her own to look after, our August holiday was spent in Hintlesham at the home of a small-holder named Dyer who supplied Ipswich shops with fruit. He used to get his fruit mainly from the gardens of the surrounding villages – he had some sort of contract with them – and Bess and I used to help him gather the fruit. The small-holding was about 25 acres and included a large field of wheat, a large orchard and two grass paddocks for the horse and the milk-cow. Later during the war these paddocks were taken over as an emergency landing area for aircraft.

Mr. Dyer was a keen Salvationist and played a flute in the Hadleigh Citadel Band and his son George played the trombone, so on Sundays we all cycled to Hadleigh for the services which included open-air meetings in the High Street and a march back to the Citadel behind the Salvation Army band.

A photo of a wet town street with two and three storey buildings on each side. There are two horse-drawn wagons in the distance and a few people dotted around. A sign sticking out from the building closest on the right reads 'THE GEORGE HOTEL. C. MURTON'.
Hadleigh High Street. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

I still recall the framed tract on the dining room wall opposite to where I sat for my meals – God is the head of this house, the unseen guest at every meal, the silent listener to every conversation. One of my daily tasks was the collection of eggs that could be found in many different parts of the farmyard and I would get about thirty a day. On one occasion I went up into a loft from which I had noticed a hen fly down – they really can fly – and I found a clutch of forty-two eggs. Money for the eggs always went to Mrs. Dyer, its a country custom that the farmer’s wife gets the egg money. On our last holiday there in 1917 the threshing machine arrived, supplied by a contractor who served all the neighbouring farms in rotation. This was a new self-contained machine that did not need a traction engine for its motive power, and took only about two hours to do the whole of the small crop. That was my last holiday on a farm as I left school that year.

I cannot recall that either my sister or I had any particular hobby, but we had plenty of interests. I had a small Meccano set but was not very keen on it as I found the small nuts and bolts rather fiddling to handle. I preferred a construction kit called Kliptiko which consisted of thin, hollow metal rods that could be clipped together to form buildings, bridges, lifting cranes or ships. I also had a very good collection of lead toy soldiers, many of them in the correct regimental colours, and some in khaki which had come into general use in the South African war. There was also a gun and limber drawn by six horses. This gun had a pull-spring which fired wooden pellets with enough force to knock down toy soldiers. There was also an ambulance van drawn by two horses which my father said was similar to the one in which as a wounded man he spent several days on the journey southwards to Cape Town. In keeping with this military outfit I had a wooden fort complete with moat and drawbridge.

In 1915 I paid sixpence for my first camera bought from the former penny bazaar, later re-named Domestic Bazaar, at the corner of Providence Street and Westgate Street. This camera was a black cardboard two inch cube with a photographic plate inside opposite to a pinhole in the front. Moving aside the cover to the pinhole, exposed the plate for a few seconds and resulted in quite a good photographic negative. The drawback was that you had to break open the box to get at the negative so a new camera was needed for each picture. I read up all about the development and fixing of negatives and the printing of pictures from a library book and was so successful that I saved up five shillings to buy a real camera. This again was a box camera with the trade name of Clincher, and it held six photographic plates one behind the other and when the foremost was exposed a lever could be pulled and it was dropped to the bottom of the camera so it could be removed and developed without waiting for the other plates to be exposed – or of course, all six plates could be exposed one after the other if required. I had quite a lot of success with this camera and much regret that all this photographic apparatus and pictures, together with my toy soldiers, etc., disappeared when we moved from Fore Street to Hatfield Road after the war.

My sister Bess had a large Teddy Bear who sported a very good tailor-made waistcoat made by a professional tailoress, a Miss Lillie who was a Salvation Army comrade of my mother’s sister, Hannah. Bess also had a large sleeping doll whose eyes closed when it was laid down – that was a novelty then – together with a cradle and a large furnished dolls’ house of four rooms, a hall and a staircase. My sister also wore at times a nurse’s uniform with a red cross on the bib of the white apron, and she had a good cooking stove and oven on which she actually cooked fried chips – Dad ate some of them but Mother wouldn’t touch them. Both my sister and I had regular piano lessons for four or five years and at one time we had a harmonium as well as the piano. The harmonium had bellows operated by foot pedals, and was played for hymns on Sundays. That also disappeared in the move along with my sister’s toys – and mine.

In 1914 when I reached the age of twelve I was able to join the School Scout Troop. Our uniform was dark blue shirt, shorts and stockings with a khakhi neckerchief and the regulation broad-brimmed hat, a scout-knife and a whistle and of course, the five-foot wooden pole carried by all Scouts in those days. This pole was very useful to help in vaulting ditches and low hedges. In 1915 we camped in Woolverstone Park, along the Shotley Road, near to Freston Tower, along the bank of the River Orwell.

A photo of a seven-storey square brick tower with one window on each side per floor. There are trees around it, almost as tall as the tower.
Freston Tower around 1860. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Much of this area appears in Constable’s paintings, especially the Boot Inn at Freston and the one of Landguard Fort near the mouth of the Orwell. I believe that this latter painting really put Constable onto artistic success when it was exhibited in London. However, back to the Scout camp. There were forty of us in five bell tents, a sixth tent for the scoutmaster, Mr. Mossman and his assistant and a small marquee as a dining tent. It was here that I first took a real interest in cooking – sausages and mash mostly, but that’s what boys like; porridge and bacon and eggs for breakfast; toast, cheese and jam for supper and tea or fizzy lemonade. There was a very cheap fizzy drink in those days called Monsters – twice as large a bottle as any other kind and a penny back on the empty bottle. We had a small drum and bugle band and on the way home from camp I was sufficiently capable of playing one of the drums on the way home – a proud moment. Scouting instruction was quite practical and I learned a lot about erecting a tent, tying rope-knots, and elementary first-aid and identification of various birds especially the wading birds along the River Orwell. Unfortunately I was in the Wood-pigeon patrol whose call – book-a-ooo, book-a-ooo – might be all right in a town but in a country area where there were dozens of pigeons it was just hopeless. The Scout troop closed down when the Scoutmaster and his assistant were called up for Army service, and was replaced by an Army Cadet Force for which I was too young.

One wonders what it is that creates the start of a new activity such as the spinning of tops season. Suddenly one morning it would be top-spinning time as all the rage. There were two main kinds of tops – the mushroom one and the inverted circular cone known as a Dutch top. Both types could be made to spin by winding the string of a whip around them and then jerking the whip and keeping the top spinning by furious whipping which also propelled the top several yards if you were lucky. Some people were expert enough to spin the top by a twist of the fingers as the top fell to the ground. Roads and pavements were the usual areas for top-spinning, as school playgrounds were considered danger areas. Of course, there were very few motor cars about then, but I should have thought that the horses, carts and tramcar were serious difficulties. Perhaps we kept mainly to the side roads. There was also a much larger type of metal Dutch top which could be propelled by a wound-up spring and which made a humming noise but this was really an expensive toy – about a shilling I should think.

Then suddenly the season would change – the girls would take up skipping and the boys were all for leap-frog on the way to school and around the playground. One particular type of more stationery leapfrog was known as ‘uppa-giddy, uppa-giddy, one, two, three’. This was played by opposing sides of up to six boys. One boy stood against a wall and his team mates bent down before him in a line jutting out from the wall. The opposing team, one at a time, leapt on to the line of boys as far up to the wall as possible and when all were in place they chanted “uppa-giddy, uppa-giddy, one, two, three” and if the line had not collapsed by the time they had finished, the team below had won.

Hop-skotch was mainly a girls’ game, but marbles was essentially for boys. It was possible to play a moving game of marbles on the way to school by bowling a marble along the gutter in an attempt to hit the previous marble of your opponent. If you made a hit, then you kept the other marble. There was also a more stationary game where you crouched around a shallow hole in the ground and with a flick of your thumb knocked someone else’s marble into the hole which entitled you to another shot at a third marble and so on until your own marble went into the hole and someone else took over. A third game was a real business affair for which you needed a piece of wood about a foot long which had four or five half circles of wood cut out. Above the semi-circle was a number, 4, 3, 2, 1 and zero. You were charged one marble a go and you bowled a marble in an attempt to pass through one of the numbered tunnels. If you went through zero you lost your marble. If through no. 1 you were entitled to another go. If through no. 2 you had another go plus an extra marble. Through three, then two extra marbles. I think the ownership of such a marble block was akin to a bookmaker’s licence – you couldn’t lose.

A photo of two round wooden sticks, tapering towards the far end where they have a piece of string tying them together, through holes in their ends. There's a dark metal thing, round, like two circular cones joined at their apexes. There is black rubber around the circular edges. The visible end has a five-pointed star in the centre and the word 'DIABOLO' embossed on it.
Criss Gyford’s Diabolo, in 2026.

Two other games with which my sister and I were supplied were Diabolo and Ping-Pong. Diabolo consists of two sticks joined by a four foot piece of string and you held one stick in each hand. The diabolo was a cylindrical piece of wood about three inches long and two inches in diameter with its centre portion cut away so that it looked like two circular cones joined at the apex. With the sticks held a few inches apart the diabolo was balanced on the hanging string – that took some doing to begin with – then the sticks were jerked apart, tightening the string and propelled the whirling diabolo up into the air and then came the difficult part of catching it on the outstretched string before it reached the ground. Not at all easy. I still have the two sticks and string and the diabolo.

Another game was the original ping-pong, now upgraded to a more professional status as table tennis. The net was stretched across the dining table and kept in place by a screw-type vice at either side. The bats were sixteen inches long, nine inches of handle and seven inches of blade which was five inches wide and three-quarters of an inch thick. I know these exact measurements because I still have the original bats impressed with the words ping-pong. The bats are at least seventy years old. Each face of the hollow blade is covered by parchment. I don’t think my sister or I played with them very much but you can still hear the distinctive ping when you strike the ball and the pong when the ball strikes the table. They are still very much capable of further play, but probably not at the furious pace of today’s table tennis.

Sunday afternoons were times for family excursions during the summer months. On several occasions we walked to the paddle-steamers berthed in the New Cut which was ‘over Stoke’. ‘Over Stoke’ meant that you had to cross over the Gipping at Stoke bridge to reach the steamer which left at three o’clock after the pubs closed and sailed down river to Pin Mill to pick up further passengers and then on to Parkestone Quay at Harwich where most of the passengers alighted and visited the quayside shops for plates of oysters, winkles, whelks, shrimps or mussels. Meanwhile the paddle steamer went across river to Felixstowe pier and sometimes on to Walton-on-the-Naze.

A photo looking across grass at a stretch of water. Moored at a jetty is a long, low ship with a tall, straight funnel. A semi-circular shape indicates the position of a paddle wheel.
The paddle steamer Woolwich Belle at Ipswich in 1900. It was used mainly on feeder services from Ipswich and Harwich to Clacton. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The return journey began at about five o’clock and there was usually music and dancing on the upper deck and the bar below was well patronised – the bar opened as soon as the steamer left the quayside. What interested me most of all was to stand on a platform in the engine-room and watch the pistons rising and falling with accompanying outbursts of steam, and the steady churning of the two paddles and the ringing of the engine-room telegraph as the Captain signalled for one or other paddle to be slowed down, as that was the method of steering the vessel rather than the usual use of a rudder.

This going down river reminds me of the only time my father took me fishing. He hired a rowing boat from the ship yard at Cliff Quay and rowed out to mid-stream down river and threw out the fishing line and it was not long before we had a bite and whatever it was began to tow the boat this way and that so that I got quite worried as to what was happening. Meanwhile Dad was hauling in the fishing line as well as he could and eventually we saw our catch – a wriggling eel about three foot long, it looked bigger to me – which was hauled inboard and then began threshing about in the boat. Dad was trying to hit the eel with the boat’s baling-tin but the more he struck at it the more it thrashed about, and the vessel was rocking about dangerously and the fishing line was in a terrible tangle. I think I was scared stiff and eventually father cut the line and threw the eel overboard and rowed back to the shipyard. That was our only fishing expedition.

Another Sunday excursion – usually a full day out for which we took a picnic lunch – was a wagonette from the Old Cattle market. A wagonette was a four wheeler horse-drawn vehicle where the passengers sat on two seats facing one another – about twenty people or so. We went over Stoke Bridge along the Wherstead Road and the Strand through Freston and Pin Mill and Chelmondiston to Shotley Pier where we disembarked for the day. There was a large naval barracks at Shotley in those days and in the river was the old training ship H.M.S. Ganges.

A panoramic postcard photo of the waterfront. On the left are two two-storey brick buildings. There's a wide almost empty street with one double-decker, open-topped motor bus, and a few people. There's a long narrow, empty pier stretching out into the water. In the distance is an old three-masted sailing ship.
A view of Shotley including the Bristol Arms and the H.M.S. Ganges. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

When we came to a hill and there were four or five hills on the way, men and boys had to get out of the wagonette and help to push it up hill. On the down-hill slopes a metal drag was placed under a rear wheel so the vehicle did not prove too much for the two horses. The drag scoured a trench in the surface of the roadway which was composed of flints – I don’t recall any tarred asphalt or macadamed roads in those days. Whenever a car came by there was a great cloud of dust and the horses had to be calmed down. There was not much for children to do at Shotley except paddle in the river or play in the fields, but we enjoyed the picnic. On the way home in the evening the wagonette was always stopped at the Boot Inn, Freston, and we children had lemonade and biscuits whilst the adults went inside for refreshment. I think some of the most enjoyable part of the trip was the walk home from the Old Cattle Market in the gathering darkness with the lamplighter on his rounds – about the only time my sister and I were out after darkness fell.

A photo of a buysy market with probably more than 100 men, all wearing flat caps or bowler hats. There are various fenced pens, some crowded with sheep. A low building in the background has a clocktower on its roof. The gate posts leading into the market each have a large upturned basket on them.
Ipswich cattle market around 1910. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Mention of the Old Cattle Market reminds me that there was a rollerskating rink there, where the Post Office sorting department is now. This skating rink was also used for professional boxing events and I recall that the Suffolk champion was Phil Suffling – not that I was allowed to see any boxing. There was a second roller skating rink down by the recreation ground near to Portman Road and I became reasonably good at skating.

A photo of inside a large hangar-like building with a high pitched roof supported by many angled and horizontal beams. Nine adults stand on the flat empty floor facing the camera, all wearing roller skates. The men are wearing suits, three with what look like smoking jackets. The three women are in dresses or long skirts, with wide-brimmed hats. An advertisement in the background is for 'Kirby's Mineral Water'.
The Empress skating rink, around the 1910s. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Occasionally on a Wednesday afternoon if Ipswich Town was playing a home football match at the Portman Road ground my father would take me there – as a young man he had played for Bury St. Edmunds when he was stationed there as a soldier. Of course in those days Ipswich Town was only in the Southern Amateur League, but even then it was supported by the Cobbold family and there is still a John Cobbold as chairman. My sister and I are still shareholders in the Ipswich Town Football Club.

A photo of eleven men in two rows, the front row of five sat on a wooden bench. They're all wearing probably white tops with a wide, pale vertical stripe. Their shorts and socks are a variety of shades.
Ipswich Town Football Club team 1911. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

§ Postscript

In August 1917, a few months short of his sixteenth birthday, Criss Barrington Gyford entered the Merchant Navy. The following year he enlisted in the Royal Army Service Corps in which he served during the final months of World War One.

After the war he returned to the sea and during the 1920s sailed on a wide variety of ships including those of the P & O Line. In 1932 he married Ethel Florence Roper, a friend of his sister. He became a mature student at London University and after graduation began a second career as a teacher and lecturer in the London area. Meanwhile he was also pursuing a third career in broadcasting and writing, often drawing on his world-wide travels for radio talks, articles and books.

In 1940, as a Royal Naval Reserve officer, he was captain of one of the ‘small boats’, the M.V Lucy, during the Dunkirk evacuation. In later years he was an officer in both the Air Training Corps and the Home Guard. Politically he maintained his parents’ Liberal loyalties, serving as Liberal Party agent, council candidate and constituency president in Twickenham in the 1940s and 1950s.

He retired from teaching in 1960 and enjoyed a long retirement, marred only by the death of his wife in 1980. He died on April 30th 1987, survived by his sister Bessie, his children John and Christine and his grandchildren Philip and Susie.

J.G.


§ You can download a PDF of the typed version of this memoir on the Internet Archive.

It is also available at the Suffolk Archives with some additional material, accession number HD2050:

Gyford Family of Ipswich: ‘Goodbye Victoria’ An Edwardian childhood in Ipswich by Criss Barrington Gyford with copies of related family photographs and documents 20th cent; Six issues of Fourth Form Magazine, Ipswich Secondary School c 1915


Read comments or post one

Reading List 2026-09-26

The Quay, Olaveaga, Bilbao by Luis Paret y Alcazar, via WikiArt.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at ASML’s lack of European sales, a California distributed power plant, Starlink as a planetary barometer, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

No essay this week, but a more involved piece about how the AI that powers modern robots works will be out next week.

Housing and Cities

Following the passage of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, manufactured home producer Cavco has unveiled a HUD-code manufactured home without a permanent steel chassis. [GlobeNewswire]

Related, both Texas and Florida passed laws requiring cities to allow the placement of manufactured homes. As of September 1st Texas’ SB 785 requires cities to allow “by right” placement of manufactured homes (meaning that there’s no discretionary approval or review process) in at least one residential district. [Smart Cities Dive] And as of July 1st Florida requires “qualifying off-site constructed” homes to be allowed by right in any zoning district where single family homes are allowed. [HousingWire]

Austin’s recent decline in housing prices apparently isn’t only due to dramatic increase in supply: a fall in demand in 2023 and 2024 also contributed. [Free Range]

Kalshi has a prediction market for whether a permitting reform law will get passed in 2026. Odds are up to almost 80%. I didn’t look close enough at this, this market already resolved in July with “yes”! [Kalshi]

Why young Europeans can’t afford to buy homes. “The OECD data covers the average across 20 EU countries. For example, 60% of people born around 1975 owned a home by age 32. This fell to 58% for the 1980 birth cohort and to 52% for those born in 1985.” [Euronews]

A Census map showing the change in housing for US states between 2020 and 2026. Not much terribly surprising here, though I didn’t expect Washington State to be among the states with a large housing increase. [Census Bureau]

Trump wants his Washington DC arch to be equipped with drones and snipers. [NYT]

Manufacturing

ASML, the European manufacturer of semiconductor lithography machines, says that it doesn’t actually sell any machines in Europe currently because no new fabs are being built there. [NL Times]

The US passed Japan to be the second largest installer of industrial robots in 2025, with 38,400 newly-installed robots against Japan’s 36,200. China is still far ahead of both with 354,000, almost 10x the US. [IFR]

From the annals of the ongoing US power transformer shortage: Hitachi Energy plans to build a $500 million plant in Mississippi that would double its capacity to produce power transformers in the 10 to 160 megavolt-ampere range. [Utility Dive]

China’s progress in chipmaking machine market share over the last year. Looks like maybe a net trend upward in marketshare-weighted terms, though a pretty small one. [CSET]

A teardown of two DJI drones, aimed at shedding some light on how it achieves its impressively low manufacturing costs (and what the US might have to do to compete). “By our estimates, DJI not only sustained exceptionally high hardware margins but also grew them from 72% to 79% between 2019 and 2023. For comparison, Apple, a $4.6 trillion dollar company famous for its supply chain, achieved a 53% gross margin on the iPhone 15 Pro Max.” [Arena Physica]

The death of the small car in the US. Between 1981 and 2025 the average weight of new cars rose from 3200 pounds to over 4400 pounds, and the fraction of new cars that were small passenger cars fell from 80% in 1975 to 34% in 2025. “As of 2026, the traditional small car market has shrunk to a handful of remaining options like the Nissan Sentra and the Kia K4. Every other manufacturer has either killed off small-sized models or upgraded them to midsized cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs).” [World of Systems]

Trump is working on a “massive” deal to import potash (an ingredient in fertilizer manufacturing) from Belarus, likely in the hopes of reducing potash imports from Canada. [Kyiv Independent]

Saudi Arabia launches a line of EVs, Ceer. [AGBI]

Energy

Read more

September 25, 2026

I learned late this afternoon that, in addition to being Dolly Parton Day, today is National Lobster Day, honoring the cultural and economic history of the lobster industry. That industry thrives in Maine because of unique conditions in the water offshore where the cold Labrador Current and the warm Gulf Stream mix over the shallow continental shelf, creating one of the richest habitats for marine life on the planet.

Lobsters have been vital in the creation of Maine’s coastal communities, but the industry’s current place of pride is recent. Until the mid–twentieth century, lobster was considered poor man’s food. Before then, it was not lobster but fish that shaped society on the coast of New England.

Fish were central to the English settlement of the North American continent. In the 200 years between 1300 and 1500 CE, fish were a limited resource and brought sky-high prices in Europe. As the fish in the North Sea became scarcer in the late 1400s, fishermen and explorers began to push into the Atlantic. There, they found such a bonanza of fish in the nutrient-rich water that scholars have called its discovery and the trade it sparked the “Fish Revolution.” Cod, especially, but also haddock and hake, concentrated on the Grand Banks off Newfoundland.

A member of the crew with Italian John Cabot, who was sailing for the English crown, noted in 1497 that there were so many cod on the Grand Banks that they “can be taken not only with nets but with fishing-baskets.” In 1502 the first recorded landing of Atlantic cod in Europe fetched £180, equivalent to about £1.2 million in 2016, with a buying power at the time of just shy of £76 million, close to $100 million today.

Fishing meant big money, and British fishermen were among those who tried their hand in the fog of the Grand Banks, making an annual trip to toss their hooks overboard. They beheaded and gutted their catch, splitting each fish in half like a book, salted the fish, and then dried them on shore. By 1600 they had moved into the Gulf of Maine, where they landed in places like Monhegan Island and Damariscove, where they dried the fish until they were hard before taking their catch back to Europe.

As European fishermen landed in North America, they brought with them European diseases for which the Indigenous populations had no immunities. The tribes were wiped out, so that when the Pilgrims arrived in 1620—on Cape Cod—they found a land so rich and yet depopulated that they believed God had prepared it for them.

The fish trade continued to be so important to New Englanders that almost two centuries later, when their new nation negotiated for its independence, the first thing leaders demanded after independence and national boundaries was continued access to the fisheries.

On September 3, 1783, negotiators signed the Treaty of Paris officially ending the Revolutionary War between Great Britain and the United States. The Preamble of the document promised that King George III and the United States of America would “forget all past misunderstandings and differences that have unhappily interrupted the good correspondence and friendship which they mutually wish to restore.”

The first article of the treaty contained the king’s acknowledgment that the thirteen states that made up the new United States were “free, sovereign, and independent.”

The second article established the boundaries of the new nation.

The third article, which came even before those protecting debts and calling for the return of confiscated property, protected the rights of American fishermen to “take fish of every kind on the Grand Bank, and on all the other banks of Newfoundland; also in the [gulf] of St. Lawrence, and at all other places in the sea, where the inhabitants of both countries used at any time heretofore to fish.”'

[Photo by my favorite lobsterman, Buddy Poland.]

—

Notes:

https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/treaty-of-paris

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/jul/31/fish-stocks-nature-canada-editorial

Poul Holma, Francis Ludlowa, Cordula Scherera, Charles Travisa , Bernard Allairea, Cristina Britoa, Patrick W. Hayes, J. Al Matthews, Kieran J. Rankin, Richard J. Breen, Robert Legg, Kevin Lougheed, John Nicholls, The North Atlantic Fish Revolution (ca. AD 1500) (University of Washington, 2018).

Share

Organ trafficking research

 Frederike Ambagtsheer is the principal investigator of a Dutch project conducting organ trafficking research, whose website discusses their work:

welcome to organ trafficking research

This platform presents research projects on the human organ trade that are conducted by Erasmus MC's Organ Trafficking Research Group. We further provide information for interested audiences (e.g. students, researchers, law enforcement, law -and policy-makers, etc) about the complexities of this crime and the responses there-to.

The organ trafficking research group is based at Erasmus MC's Department of Internal Medicine, Section Nephrology and Kidney Transplantation in Rotterdam(opens in new tab), The Netherlands. This department is part of the recently established Erasmus MC Transplant Institute (opens in new tab)which houses one of the largest kidney transplantation centers in Europe.

...

what we do

We are an enthusiastic and dedicated team of researchers that conduct empirical research on different facets of organ trade and trafficking. Our research is structured into various projects. Methods include a mix of qualitative and quantitative research strategies including systematic literature reviews, surveys, ethnographic research, crime scripting and network analysis.

We conduct research in countries across the globe and we focus on all stages of the organ trading chain, including organ buying, selling, the organisation of illegal transplants and law enforcement responses. We also explore alternative measures such as allowing financial rewards for organ donation. In addition, we advise governments and (inter)national organizations on how to address organ trade problems.

Our research is funded by organisations including the European Commission, the European Research Council and the Dutch Research Council (NWO)."

 

 

Should you text more?

Here, in five waves of panel data (N = 1,966 US adults), we examined associations between life satisfaction and self-reported use of ten common social technologies measured every 3 months on a six-point frequency scale from ‘I did not use’ to ‘multiple times daily’. At this measurement level and timescale, Bayesian and frequentist random-intercept cross-lagged panel models showed little credible evidence that any social technology use predicts subsequent life satisfaction. In the reverse direction, increases in life satisfaction predicted only modest increases in (video) calling in select demographic groups. In analyses comparing different people, frequency of texting was associated with higher life satisfaction, whereas frequency of YouTube and TikTok use was associated with lower life satisfaction. Despite limited ability to detect within-person change due to temporal stability in responses, the absence of cross-lagged effects is informative: there is scant evidence of a meaningful relationship between social technology use and subsequent life satisfaction.

That is from a new Nature article by Kostadin Kushlev, Kibum Moon, Matt Motyl, Nathanael J. Fast & Juliana Schroeder. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post Should you text more? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

A doomsday scenario for American AI

That is the title of my latest Free Press column, here is the closing bit:

Sick and elderly Americans will go to Chinese companies for their AI-invented and AI-tested medical devices and drugs. America still will be a wealthy country, so China will charge the highest prices possible, yet prioritize Chinese citizens for treatment. Large numbers of Americans will die prematurely, at least compared to a world in which many of those innovations came from the U.S. My colleague Alex Tabarrok has coined the phrase invisible graveyard to refer to these lost lives, invisible because we do not observe the state of the world where they get treatment readily and cheaply. Over time, this invisible graveyard will swell into the many millions.

Finally, we will ask what went wrong.

The postmortem will be this. Many people panicked about the possibility of strong AI models killing us all. That fear was not based on peer-reviewed scientific research showing a high chance of doom, nor was doom indicated in any market prices of the time, including measures of risk. It was a story, just like this is a story, and it was spread on social media. The key point of the doom story was that, if America keeps the No. 1 spot in AI models, the models will be so strong they will do us all in, or lead to unimaginable catastrophes. We were too afraid to have America keep the lead, forgetting that if truly destructive AI is our fate, the doomer scenario can come from Chinese AI as well.

Today, we cannot say for sure that the AI doom scenario is false. But is it a story we wish to live by? Is belief in it a good way to protect and extend life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness? Will it help us much, or for long, if it is Chinese AI that turns on us and does us in?

In my view, successful societies accept challenges and meet them. Solving problems, bit by bit, is the best way to ensure that we have the capabilities to meet big and truly existential risks, should those risks come along. Debating the chances of our doom, ex ante, on a highly speculative basis, is unlikely to provide the same kind of expertise and talent cultivation. It is instead more likely to demoralize and immobilize us.

So which America are we going to choose?

Recommended, do read the whole thing.

The post A doomsday scenario for American AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Mr. Choyka Is Apparently Doing Well

A reader asked if this Gary Choyka who hit two holes-in-one in the same round of golf back in 2020 is the same Gary Choyka who was my history teacher 30+ years ago. Indeed it is. He looks good. (He was a hell of a basketball player too.)

 ★ 

Mux: Turn Your Video Into Context

My thanks to Mux for sponsoring last week at DF. Video isn’t just something to stream; it’s structured data you build with.

Mux Robots — hosted AI workflows — turns video into context. Generate chapters, find key moments, translate audio, and more, through one API call, with no model hosting to maintain. Each workflow is evaluated against real video, not generic benchmarks. Configure the workflows once, and every new upload runs automatically.

Mux is video infrastructure trusted by Patreon, Substack, and Perplexity. Start building for free. Use code FIREBALL for an extra $50 credit.

 ★ 

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


087
ACPN50 PHFO 281144
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located about 100 miles southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico,
on Hurricane Nolo, located a few hundred miles southwest of the main
Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rachel, located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow. The system
should move generally northeastward and remain well east of the
Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Adams
NNNN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


047
ABNT20 KNHC 281116
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fay, located well to the southwest of the Azores.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91):
An area of low pressure located well to the east-northeast of
Bermuda is moving quickly eastward. Recent microwave imagery
suggests the shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show
signs of organization, though it is unclear if the system has
developed a well-defined circulation given its fast forward motion.
While environmental conditions are currently only marginally
favorable, this system is now likely to become a tropical depression
or storm over the next day or two as it turns east-southeastward and
slows down over the central Subtropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 28 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located about 100 miles southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico,
on Hurricane Nolo, located a few hundred miles southwest of the main
Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rachel, located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands continues to become better organized. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow. The system
should move generally northeastward and remain well east of the
Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Adams


What color is the universe?  What color is the universe?