Flávio Bolsonaro’s escape from Brazil to Miami turns out to have been arranged, in part, by White House officials including Trump advisor Jason Miller, who arranged for a charter jet to take the Bolsonaros from Argentina to Florida.
Edward Wong, Ana Ionova, Hamed Aleaziz, and Tyler Pager of the New York Times reported today that Trump himself ordered the State Department to give temporary status to Flávio Bolsonaro and his family on humanitarian grounds. U.S. officials told the reporters that the government will likely grant them permanent residency later.
Wall Street Journal reporters Vera Bergengruen, Samantha Pearson, Ryan Dubé, and Philip Wegmann write that Bolsonaro intends to set up a political system in exile, despite the fact that more than 50 countries, including Latin American leaders from a wide range of political persuasions, have recognized the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s election. Lula won by more than 4.4 million votes. International observers call that margin decisive.
Trump has refused to recognize Lula’s victory, suggesting that the votes against the right-wing Bolsonaro were rigged. But, as the Wall Street Journal reporters add, it is unclear how much political capital he will be willing to expend on propping up Bolsonaro’s pretensions to power.
Trump’s own energies have been devoted to trying to project authority and power, but he has succeeded primarily in illustrating that he is far more concerned with his development projects than with what’s going on in the White House. Yesterday he posted at length on social media about the East Potomac Golf Course he wants to redo—the one where the administration cut down more than 400 trees in defiance of a judge’s order—saying it “is highly dangerous, dilapidated, and absolutely disgusting” and calling for it to be “closed immediately for safety reasons!”
Last night, Eric Flack of WUSA9 reported that the National Park Service told a federal judge it is closing not just the East Potomac Golf Course, but also nearly all of Hains Point beginning on November 15. As Flack notes, this area includes “the perimeter running loop, the dedicated bike and pedestrian lane the Park Service completed in 2023, and the picnic areas and open space used year-round.” The Park Service did not say how long the closure would last. Trump promised: “After we are done, the East Potomac Course will be a place of immeasurable Pride for the City, all of the Golf Enthusiasts who live here, a Course worthy of and befitting our Nation’s Capital.”
Rachel Treisman of NPR reports that plans for the finished park show only a golf course. The current facilities for walkers, runners, cyclists, birders, picnickers, and so on, are not shown.
Trump is paying less attention to the affairs of government. Today, when asked about claims that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had fired Lieutenant General Sylvia for leaking classified information from the Pentagon, Trump responded: “She’s got problems. She’s gonna have big problems. She did. We’re very much looking for leakers and ah, she’s going to have big problems. Long-term problems.”
Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia, the director for strategy, plans, and policy on the joint staff that advises the president on military issues, is a man.
Tonight Shauneen Miranda of News From the States reported that Trump has cancelled his rallies in Kansas and Iowa, planned for this weekend. When a reporter asked if the Kansas cancellation meant he was “sick of traveling,” Trump exploded, calling the reporter “sick” and “disgusting” and saying, “You look like hell.”
Trump is also expending his energies in trying to convince Americans that the Democrats are rigging the 2026 midterms.
The administration has tried to force California to set aside 20,000 ballots in the election, claiming that those casting them might not be citizens. Yesterday, as Ryan Sabalow of Cal Matters reported, U.S. District Judge David O. Carter refused to agree, saying the Trump administration is engaging in “a broad, ongoing pattern of attempted election interference.” Carter noted that Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has also sent letters to the secretaries of state in New Jersey, Nevada, and Pennsylvania claiming that the states’ voter rolls include noncitizens. Mullin publicly alleged there were 15,903 noncitizens on the voter rolls in Nevada, then quietly dropped that number to 185. When Nevada officials chased down the 185 names, every single one belonged to a U.S. citizen.
“Never before in American history has the federal government, on the eve of an election, sought to coerce a state and local government to abandon their own Constitutional elections procedures and bend to the will of the Executive Branch,” Carter wrote. “This case is about the right of every American citizen to vote in a free and fair election.”
The administration has asked a federal appeals court to rule by Friday on an emergency attempt to stop California from including those 20,000 ballots in the ballot count. In the meantime, as Rick Hasen of Election Law Blog reported, this afternoon the leadership of the Department of Justice directed California’s top federal prosecutors to launch criminal investigations of local and state officials, claiming they are administering illegal voting.
In a “but her emails” kind of moment, the administration is also jumping on yesterday’s New York Times story by Kellen Browning that a staffer for the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate from Alaska, Mary Peltola, searched for and recruited a man with a name similar to that of the Republican candidate, Dan Sullivan, as a spoiler for the race.
Browning reported that this sort of activity, called “ballot stacking,” is “common in politics and generally considered legal—and [has] been employed by both parties in Alaska,” and that Republicans had used it against Peltola herself two years ago. The author suggested the story was important simply because it “reveals the lengths to which Democrats went to seek advantage in a Senate race that could determine control of the chamber.”
The source for the story, Peltola’s former campaign manager Elisa Rios, said Peltola was not directly involved in the project but was “definitely aware.” Before publication of the story, Browning notes, Rios “contacted The Times and said she wanted to take back her previous statements. ‘As discussed on our call earlier today, I am confirming that I have retracted all statements made regarding the 2026 Alaska Senate Race in connection with any article you may or may not be writing,’ Ms. Rios wrote. ‘I am not willing to be a source for any story in any capacity.’”
Peltola’s campaign, Peltola, and Daniel J. Sullivan all deny any involvement in a ballot-stacking plan. Sullivan says he ran because he was dissatisfied with the performance of Senator Sullivan. Ballot stacking runs into legal trouble if a candidate is paid to run. No one has said this is the case in the 2026 Alaska race.
On October 23 the Justice Department sued Alaskan election officials to block the certification of a winner in Alaska’s Senate race unless the Republican won, saying the inclusion of Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot might confuse voters who wanted to elect Senator Dan Sullivan, who, unlike Daniel, is listed on the ballot both as a Republican and as the incumbent.
With the publication of the New York Times story, Trump promptly took to social media to call the scheme illegal “ELECTION FRAUD.” He called for Peltola and Daniel J. Sullivan to be removed from the Alaska ballot, letting Republican Senator Dan Sullivan run essentially unopposed.
The Justice Department promptly issued at least three dozen subpoenas and requests for the preservation of documents. On Wednesday night, Republican Alaska governor Mike Dunleavy announced he was ordering an investigation into whether Peltola’s campaign should face criminal charges or civil penalties, although he did not identify any illegality.
Michael Kosnar, Megan Brand, and Raquel Coronell Uribe of NBC News reported that, at Dunleavy’s request, “Alaska’s Department of Public Safety Deputy Commissioner Austin McDaniel said Thursday that the Alaska Bureau of Investigation had started looking into the ‘alleged conduct in a recent New York Times article.’”
Today the New York Times ran two stories noting that ballot stacking is common and legal. A piece by Reid J. Epstein explained that while the Alaska race “has drawn the most attention,... both parties are quietly trying to use little-known candidates in other battlegrounds to siphon votes.” Epstein explained that in Ohio, for example, Republicans are promoting a socialist candidate to take votes from Democratic candidate, former senator Sherrod Brown.
Another piece by Madison Malone Kircher, titled “Ballot Stacking in Elections? History Shows It’s Not Unusual,” listed some of the more spectacular instances of ballot stacking in U.S. history, including the 2020 Florida state senate race in which a Republican paid Alexis Pedro Rodriguez to challenge an incumbent Democrat, state senator José Javier Rodríguez. It worked. The challenger won more than 6,000 votes, 32 more than the incumbent, and the Republicans flipped the seat. In that case, the exchange of money crossed the legal line, and the challenger later pleaded guilty to campaign finance crimes.
But the context for the Alaska story arrived too late: Trump and Republicans are pushing the story as hard as they can to suggest Democrats are cheating in the midterm elections.
Another ballot-stacking story from this week adds even more context to the Alaska story. Donald Shaw of Sludge, the home for investigative journalism on money in politics, reported that a review of tax records shows that the nonprofit organization that helped to get Cornel West on the 2024 presidential ballot got all of its $7.7 million in funding that year from a right-wing political network bankrolled by Elon Musk. West, a leftist Black intellectual, was widely seen as a spoiler to siphon votes from Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.
And there is, in fact, reason to be concerned about the Alaska election process. Eric Stone and Hannah Flor of Alaska Public Media reported on Tuesday that polling places in some rural areas failed to open as schedules said they would. Democratic state senator Bill Wielechowski wrote to Division of Elections director Carol Beecher and Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom on October 23 to say that “at least 18” rural early voting locations “have failed to open as legally required.” He noted that in the primary, “dozens of rural Alaskan voters did not have their absentee in-person votes counted because it took too long for their ballots to arrive by mail to the Division’s regional office,” and expressed concern the same thing could happen in the general election. He called the Division’s failures “shocking.”
Dahlstrom responded: “Of the eighteen sites listed in your letter, three have now declined to open, twelve have confirmed they are open, and we are working to hear from the remaining three locations.” She noted that these early polling locations were free to change their hours.
Meanwhile, there has been widespread talk that Trump intends to restart the military assault against Iran after the election, and it appears a plan is in place should he decide to do so. Yesterday, at the Middle East Institute, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) said that the war plan that has been prepared for the administration “is insane…. It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.” He continued: “[T]he plan that they have developed will lead, in my view, to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that will be devastating for our security interests.”
—
Notes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/world/americas/flavio-bolsonaro-trump-brazil-us.html
https://www.npr.org/2026/10/23/nx-s1-6010488/east-potomac-trump-golf-hains-point
https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/10/trump-ballot-claims-california-ruling/
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28856709-carter-order/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/us/politics/alaska-dan-sullivan-conspiracy-peltola.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/politics/midterms-third-party-independent-candidates.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/us/politics/trump-peltola-sullivan-alaska-senate.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/elections/ballot-stacking-alaska.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/politics/midterms-third-party-independent-candidates.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/elections/ballot-stacking-alaska.html
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28847757-letter-to-lt-governor-and-doe-10-23-26/
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28847756-letter-to-senator-wielchowski-re-avos-102626/
Trump’s Truth:
X:
ChrisMurphyCT/status/2115809671151751545
Bluesky:
Watch today’s live recording here.
Listen on Apple Podcasts
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You can also find Heather:
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Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Spotify
Get full, free access to Letters from an American here.
You can also find Heather:
YouTube
Bluesky
Instagram
Facebook
Threads
TikTok
To read this letter, click here:
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Spotify
You can also find Heather at:
YouTube
Bluesky
Instagram
Facebook
Threads
TikTok
1. Dwarkesh interviews Robert Caro (!).
2. New and pretty brutal results on CTE and football.
4. Updated version of the Saez-Zucman audit. Contestable and speculative assumptions are now separated from true defects.
5. Rosalind Arden interviews Greg Clark on social status.
6. GPTs vs. Claudes, in games.
7. The latest from Sam Altman.
The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
All the handwriting stuff from the previous newsletters/weeks/months/years has always had two sides, the actual writing like normal writing part and the what-art-can-I-create-with-writing part.
The art side has generally focused on taking typesetting layout inspiration from magazines and newspapers, handwritten journals and repetition. Here’s an example from ‘xoxo’
Very regular and very ‘on the grid’, which I love, but I’ve also spent a good while tinkering with something more organic, and it’s never quite felt right - the vibes were off - until now.
As with a lot of things the system is fairly “simple” but starts to look more complex as you add layers. There are five stages to generating one of these designs.
The first stage “foundation” divides the page up into rows, anywhere from 3 to 24 and then draws horizontal and vertical lines in those rows, which have some very simple rules; horizontal ones try to stay parallel to each other, but are sometimes attracted or repelled to each other, vertical ones are curves. These form the “skeleton” of the design.
The second stage “grow” goes through a number of rounds, 1-6, that cause new lines to grow out of the foundation lines. These tend to jut out of the foundation lines, growing until they either hit something, or we complete the number of rounds.
The third stage is “break”, places some simple rectangles onto the design, distorts them with extreme perlin-noise randomness, and uses them to delete a whole bunch of lines. This puts a bit of negative space back in, without totally destroying the composition. The second panel below shows both the 2nd (green) and 3rd (yellow) stages together.
Quick note: the four images below with the debug info turned on, are four different designs, because I have to create a new one each time, which is why each stage looks different, sorry for any confusion.
The fourth stage “write” then writes the letters along the foundation and growth lines, plus some inside the distorted rectangles created in the “break” stage.
These letters can be random, random upper/lower-case, random numbers or symbols, or, from a provided set of letters. These ones happened to have randomly selected F, U, C & K, what are the chances 🤔🤷♂️
The fifth and final stage “decorate” places cables onto the design, picking clusters of letters (or just letters, if it runs out of clusters) to act as the cable start and end points.
And yes, all this code is written by hand because none of it is particularly complicated, and I’ve done all the individual parts separately many times before; work with what you already know.
The postcards work well, I’ve even tried some small accordion books, but I’m also looking forwards to making some much larger designs. I have a stack of beautiful St Cuthberts Mill Saunders Watetrford watercolour paper with deckled side edges that’s burning a hole in my draw and I’m dying to use.
The postcard sized ones I’ve sent out to friends have already been a hit.
Which is a kinda awkward segue into.
💌 💌 💌 💌 💌
On plots large and small.
I’m still slowly spinning up the shop, but if you want to get your hands on the very plot posted above, then it’s here: https://shop.revdancatt.com/shop/fuck-series-i-system-2 - and I’ll be adding more A3+ sized plots, both sweary and non-sweary over the coming weeks. [Side note: if you want a custom one with a specific word/name hit me up, I’m actually pretty excited to keep the ArtFrame running, so the more the merrier.]
Patreon on the other hand is like a monthly postcard mail club, last month was the DOOM project. During that I realised I was going to run out of index cards so I quickly cut up some old maps I had in a draw, which became some of my favorite out of the whole lot.
November is definitely going to involve some postcards both sweary and non-sweary from this new system and a stab at a small cute accordion book (more on that next newsletter).
Patreon doesn’t really want to you do this, but you can totally sign up for just one month, snag the postcards and then ditch.
And, I’ll try and get better at saying what’s coming up, because I’ve had a few people ask about these DOOM/Map postcards and I only plotted enough for the October Patreon members. So for cool experimental stuff that won’t end up in the shop for ages, if at all, Patreon is the place.
🏺 🏺 🏺 🏺 🏺
I had more adventures in 3d clay printing land last week. Which I still insist is just pen plotting but you get to go upwards too. If you can write code to create SVGs or GCODE for a plotter to can throw in the Z-axis and make a pot.
Kris, who’s the resident sculptor in the studio is exploring making larger bodies, which means there’s always some left-over clay in the machine and the whole thing is easier to clean if it’s all used up.
When this happens I press the “MAKE AN AWESOME POT” button I added to my making awesome pots code. Spoiler; it doesn’t make awesome pots very often, there’s too much randomness, but it also doesn’t take much to press the button a lot of times, so it evens out in the end.
A kiln has just turned up too, so next step is to fire them and then glazes.
I still do not know what I’m doing.
If you’ve read this far, thank you!
Last newsletter I said I’d been pretty stressed, that appears to be over now, yay! I got pretty much all the things I needed to get done for work done so that’s all ready to roll.
Which means, the rare situation of me being able to start a new (small to medium) project, or pick up some work is, well, here. This is a real thing that’s happened more than once: “Oh, there was this really interesting job but I just assumed you’d be too busy, you’re always doing stuff” which on the one hand is actually kinda true, but also, fuck!
I’ve learnt, and also suggest to other people, you/I need to be really blatantly obvious when availability comes up, and that is now! So if everything hasn’t been totally overrun with AI, and you have something weird enough drop me a line, particularly if it involve datasets!!
Okay, time to go, catch in for Newsletter #100 on Thursday 12th November 2026.
Love you all,
Dan
🧡
After implementing the small-change pattern, Imprint Engineering’s next focus
in improving our development loop has been
implementing a verification loop for our software development. This is an increasingly common
pattern, particularly popularized by poteto’s pstack,
but you’ll find similar ideas emerging in other places as well, e.g. Niko Matsakis’ post on
the correctness ratchet,
among others.
This captures some of the confusion I’ve seen in our initial rollout, and the particulars of how we are implementing the approach.
The verification pattern suffers from confusing naming: when you tell a team that you’re planning to roll it out, they’ll often ask you what mechanism you’re using to verify the codebase, don’t we already have tests, linters and so on?
However, the verification pattern itself is more similar to the
chain-of-thought pattern,
which aims to steer the harness towards your desired outcome in a clear way.
For example, we require that each pull request generate a verifications/{pr_num}.md file
that describes each step the harness took to verify the changes, and also what
it was unable to verify.
You can argue that your harness was already performing these steps, but it’s actually hard to say whether it was or wasn’t. My sense is that it often wasn’t happening: I’ve seen too many pull requests go to CICD that had failed basic lints that could have been run locally to believe the harness was always running them. Now the harness has to explicitly document that it’s done those steps, or acknowledge it hasn’t. This allows the harness to self-drive more effectively.
Equally importantly, this generates a renewing source of data about where your harness is struggling to verify its work. That list is your roadmap for improving the ability of your harness to self-drive work more reliably over time.

The core of our verification loop is five steps:
draft to ready until they have a verifications/{pr}.md verification file availableai-code-review tool that automatically reviews all
pull requests, but potentially also from humans/dismiss {reason}
syntax in the pull request comment responses/maintain-verification-skill skill
to update the feature maps and tools used based on what has changed and where verifications have run into issues.
Automatically generate a pull request with these changes for reviewai-code-review was incorporated and which was rejected, tightening up its guidanceThis is working pretty well for us so far, typically each of our major code areas (frontend, backend, data, and native) wakes up with 4-6 pull requests to review as output of this process, improving our codebase’s correctness while we sleep.
feedback toolThe above feedback loop still misses meta-issues in our CICD and testing patterns.
To address that, we’ve implemented the feedback tool pattern described by
Teddy Riker in Designing for Agents,
which has worked very well for us with respect to addressing places where CICD and harnesses themselves are
failing above the level of verifying a specific pull request.
feedback and verifications are complementary, not competing, techniques.
For example, if the container’s runner crashed before completing, the feedback tool would often
report on this issue, whereas the verification file wouldn’t even get generated.
One of the fundamental tradeoffs in how organizations approach AI adoption comes down to an explore vs exploit tradeoff. When you explore by having the full team do its own thing, you explore for ideas which can raise the ceiling, but when you centralize you raise the floor by ensuring everyone gets better PR review and better tooling.
The other related–and extremely open–question is whether exploration tends to over-optimize for the particulars of a given individual or team’s preferences, which often reduces cohesion across a codebase. At this point, I think of misaligned guidance as “context poison”, and am pushing hard to eliminate duplicate guidance on any topic, to ensure we have consistent, cohesive direction.
So far, our approach is running this as a centralized process for our repositories, building a single, continually improving, corpus for each area using the self-reinforcing loop built around the verification pattern. I think it’s working well for us, although certainly I’ll admit that there’s some skepticism about how far we go towards centralizing, and I think that skepticism is warranted: we do want to continue exploring, even if we are primarily exploiting. The best techniques for AI-enhanced development in 2027 will be ideas that are mostly unknown today.
Was sitting at home the other day, sorting through all the irksome and irritating mail of crazy season, when this caught my eye …
It’s a campaign post from Assemblywoman Laurie Davies, the incumbent in the 74th and a public figure who seems 99 percent likely to retain her seat. In these parts, the former Laguna Niguel mayor is familiar, present and fairly well-regarded for not being a complete and total asshole. Did she vote for Trump? Certainly. Is she courageous enough to speak out against the national ugliness? No. Is she evil? Certainly not. She’s just a fairly run-of-the-mill regional political figure.
She has also, however, stooped to an unbecoming low.
As you can see, the campaign post features an image of her opponent, former San Juan Capistrano Mayor Sergio Farias—with his skin darkened beneath a lizard-like hue. For comparison’s sake, here’s what the dude actually looks like …
And if there’s one thing I know about political advertisements, nothing is accidental. The wording is precise and deliberate. The colors are there for a reason. And fuckery with photos isn’t just an intern messing up. It’s meant to be.
In this case, Davies (as white as fresh snow) is intentionally labeling Farias as the scary and dark outsider. Hell, it’s not just the blackened, green skin. The wording screams, BE AFRAID! and SOCIALIST IN OUR MIDST! and LOVES GANG BANGERS! What you are witnessing is the marriage of doctored photo and scary phrases into one nonsense piece of cardboard.
Truth be told, Farias is a revered and admired public servant who deserves better. These are, in the truest sense, local races, where community and kindness should matter. There are things you can do and things you 100-percent should not.
This should not have been done.
So I woke up this morning, scrolled the ol’ IG and came upon this video …
If you don’t recognize the women, it’s OC Supervisor Janet Nguyen alongside Gracey Van Der Mark, QAnon sympathizer, Huntington Beach City Council member, telephone booth licker and candidate for State Assembly (by the way, bravo to the OC Register for slashing apart her awful record in this piece).
And they’re worried about flooding.
Like, really worried about flooding.
Like, so worried about flooding that Gracey read 70 percent of her script without tripping over words. Like, so worried about flooding that Gracey dropped the red trench coat for the “Look, we’re being serious” outfit of jeans and Chucks.
And, on the one hand—there’s nothing wrong with the surrounded-by-flooding content of the message. We do need to be aware, store batteries, help our neighbors. So, good job. But, on the other hand—despite living on the coast, and watching the beaches drift away, neither Nguyen nor Van Der Mark have expressed even a slight belief that climate change and rising tides are problems. Neither woman has studied the science, dove into the issue, challenged the MAGA lines that, “There’s more ice than ever!” or “It’s all a liberal hoax.” Nope, nope, nope, nope.
They have done, quite literally, nada.
So as they stood alongside the flooding, reading off the intern’s phone and desperate to pose in front of the nearest Cheesecake Factory, neither Nguyen nor Gracey deserve the benefit of the doubt.
They’re just political profiteers.
Profiteering.

Turkey aims to launch its first mission to the Moon in next year, the first in a planned two-mission series, which includes an orbiter and a lander.
The First Turkish Lunar Mission (TLM-1) is contracted to launch onboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket between April and June with mission managers aiming for an April flight. A launcher for TLM-2 has yet to be selected.
If successful, Turkey would become the ninth sovereign nation (or collection of nations as is the case with the European Space Agency) to operate a payload in the lunar environment, following China, ESA, India, Israel, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States.
Dr. Burak Yağlioğlu, the project manager for the Turkish Lunar Mission, gave an overview of the mission objectives and progress to launch during the International Astronautical Congress (IAC), hosted by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF) in Turkey earlier this month.
“As a nation with a moon on its flag, going to the Moon is a very, very, very long dream for us and that’s why it has a very important national meaning, going to the Moon with our own capabilities,” Yağlioğlu said during his presentation at the IAC. “The Moon is also very important for the Earth.”
“The Moon is the Earth’s gateway to the solar system, so it may be discussed as a hub for interplanetary missions or deep space exploration, but if we look into some of the pillars of these aspects, we have science, technology development, international cooperation, resource utilization, and in the end, the ultimate goal: sustained presence,” he added.
The Turkish Lunar Mission, also referred to as the Lunar Research Program, is comprised of two initial, uncrewed phases. TLM-1 is an orbiter built by Turkish company, Tübitak Uzay, along with another company, DeltaV, which provided a hybrid propulsion system that uses nitrous-oxide as the oxidizer and a polymeric solid as the fuel.
Teams also have support from the Turkish Space Agency (TUA).
The roughly 3.6 ton TLM-1 spacecraft maneuvers using two propulsion systems: a bi-proellant chemical propulsion system for the thrusters and a hybrid propulsion system for its main engine. The hybrid system will be fired once in Earth orbit for the translunar injection burn and again for the lunar insertion burn.

TLM-1 is designed operational life of at least five months and is designed to operate in a 100 km circular polar lunar orbit once it reaches the Moon.
Yağlioğlu said it’s a point of national pride that more than 80 percent of the equipment onboard the TLM-1 (56 out of 65 elements) are made domestically in Turkey.
“We have several Turkish partners while we develop this spacecraft, so we actually have the heritage, we have the experience, we have the capability, but we also try to build an ecosystem with startups and new companies to make our system like a national team, and we actually had new actors contributing to our lunar mission two,” Yağlioğlu said.
TLM-1 includes a suite of four science payloads: the Lunar Neutrals Telescope (LNT), the Lunar Narrow Field of View Radiometer (LNR), the Radiation Calorimeter, and the Radiation Dosimeter. It’s three imaging and navigation payloads are: a High Resolution Camera, a Wide Angle Video Camera, and a Vision Based Navigation System.
These combination of instruments will be used by researchers to better understand various elements of the lunar environment, like radiation; impacts from solar wind and meteoroid impacts; magnetic anomalies; and surface temperature.
“With the TLM-1, we have an integrated observatory. So, if we just recall the external drivers and modulating conditions, we are going to measure them with LNT and LNR and with the cameras we have, maybe we will identify some meteorite impacts too,” Yağlioğlu said.
“But in addition to that, we also have the radiation measurements or environments. So all of them will contribute to the scientific outputs.”
This week, the TLM-1 spacecraft begins the first in a series of environmental tests, starting with a thermal vacuum chamber test.
As for the status of the TLM-2 mission, Yağlioğlu said it’s still early in development, but it will include a lander that will deploy a rover on the surface of the Moon. He noted the the TLM-1 design is modular and many elements can be replicated for the TLM-2 lander.
One demonstration of transferable capabilities will come when they are performing the end-of-life deorbiting of TLM-1.
“With the propellant left, we would like to design a guidance to a target area and make a controlled impact,” Yağlioğlu said. “So this will be a kind of rehearsal for the lander mission too.”
A launch date for TLM-2 hasn’t been announced.
Back in February 2023 I launched Braggoscope, my unofficial spelunker for official best show ever, BBC Radio 4’s In Our Time (write-up here).
You can listen to all 1,000+ episodes online for free (and see all books in the online reading lists). i.e. there’s a lot so don’t miss the visual explorer to find the good stuff.
(“Spelunker” from George Oates’ use of the term: "an interface to let you wander around a big dataset, and … to show relationships between things.")
Notturnometer, late night classical music and opera:
every piece played since July 2008 on BBC Radio 3’s_Through the Night_, built from the BBC’s own programme data. Discover the most popular works, composers, and individual performances across 6,644 episodes.
Built by Nick Sweeney.
As a classical music newb (but I know what I like when I hear it) I would love this site as an overlay on Apple Music to help me navigate. Help me see the well-trafficked roads.
The Gilbertoscope by Sameer Padania.
Need reading inspiration? Here are over 2,000 books chosen on BBC’s A Good Read presented by Harriett Gilbert.
Note to self: here are all the times books by Graham Greene have been recommended and I really need to pick up Brighton Rock.
3books.net: books recommended on The Ezra Klein Show (New York Times).
1,680 books. More reading inspiration.
ALSO listening inspiration. e.g. here’s the record for Cosmicomics by Italo Calvino, which is a fave, and now I want to listen to the episode it is mentioned in.
Built by Michael Sippey.
BBC Radio 1’s Essential Mix: new DJ mixes every week since 1993, hosted by Pete Tong.
This is a genuine community labour of love, originally a massive spreadsheet: Essential Mix Index.
Mixes have a track listing, where available, and a link to a YouTube search.
I am delighted to discover this mix by Blu Peter from 1997. Music peaked with mid 90s trance.
More posts tagged: filtered-for (127).
Auto-detected kinda similar posts:
As of 9am Friday, there were four homicides in D.C. this week. To date this year, D.C. has reported a total of 83* homicides this year. Last year, during the same time period, we had 114 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, there were 226 homicides during that same time period.
Property crimes were level, and violent crimes, other than homicides, declined this week. At this rate, this will be the first year since the last year of Biden’s presidency where homicides don’t decline by 33%.
Hoping for a much better week next week.
*Three of the 86 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence).
Thanks to Kyle Schiller at Marathon Fusion for conversations and information that informed this essay. All errors are my own.
Much of modern civilization is built on top of chemical reactions, either to produce new materials (as in the blast furnace, which converts iron oxide into metallic iron), or to generate energy. Chemical reactions, as we’ve previously noted, work by rearranging how atoms hold their outermost electrons. Combine an atom of sodium and an atom of chlorine, for instance, and sodium’s outermost electron will end up in chlorine’s outer electron shell in an ionic bond, creating sodium chloride — common table salt.
With these sorts of chemical reactions, we’re only shifting around atoms and the electrons that orbit them in the form of chemical bonds. The interior of the atom — the atomic nucleus, which contains an atom’s protons and neutrons — remains unchanged. But if you create the right conditions, it’s possible to rearrange the interior of atoms as well. In nuclear fission, the reaction that powers nuclear power plants, the nucleus of an atom splits, creating several new atoms and releasing an enormous amount of energy in the process. In the fusion reaction taking place within the sun, hydrogen atoms are fused together, their individual nuclei combining to form helium. In particle accelerators like the Large Hadron Collider, charged particles are accelerated into each other using electromagnetic fields, and scientists study the various fragments created by the collisions.
By changing the number of protons or neutrons in the nucleus, these nuclear reactions can create things that can’t be created via conventional chemistry. Change the number of neutrons in an atom, and you get a new isotope of that particular element: an atomic variant of the same chemical, but with a different mass. Change the number of protons, and you end up with a different element entirely, possibly one that doesn’t occur in nature at all.
Typically, the products of these reactions (which we’ll simply refer to as “isotopes”) are unstable: they decay into some other, more stable isotope, emitting radiation in the process, which can be harnessed for various purposes. Carbon dating, for example, relies on the fact that living organisms absorb carbon-14, an isotope of carbon with eight neutrons in the nucleus that eventually and reliably decays into atomically stable nitrogen-14 (the “14” indicates the number of protons and neutrons — carbon-14 has six protons and eight neutrons, while nitrogen-14 has seven protons and seven neutrons). Another process, radiographic welding inspection, uses a variety of radioactive isotopes, such as iridium-192 and selenium-75, to emit gamma rays to inspect welds. Smoke detectors rely on americium-241, an isotope of the artificial element americium — radiation emitted by a small amount of americium causes an electric current to flow across a chamber, but if smoke enters the chamber, the flow of electricity is interrupted, triggering an alarm.
Currently, our use of isotopes is constrained by the fact that creating them is difficult and expensive. Gram for gram, isotopes are some of the most expensive materials on the planet. And the supply chains to produce them are often extremely fragile. Technetium-99m1, a widely used radioactive isotope for medical imaging, is produced through the decay of another radioactive isotope, molybdenum-99. Molybdenum-99, in turn, is produced in only a few nuclear reactors around the world;there was a worldwide shortage in 2024 when some of these reactors went offline for repairs. If isotopes could be manufactured more easily and more cheaply, it could open up numerous possibilities — cheaper medical treatments, better nuclear power sources, possibly even useful new materials.
We’re all familiar with the periodic table, which lists every chemical element known to man.

Each element on the periodic table has an atomic number, which is the number of protons in the nucleus, starting from atomic number 1 (hydrogen, which has one proton in the nucleus) all the way up to atomic number 118 (oganesson, an artificial element with 118 protons in the nucleus). It’s the number of protons in an atom that makes an element an element — carbon always has six protons, because having six protons in the nucleus of an atom is what makes that atom carbon.
But there are also neutrons in the nucleus, and the number of neutrons can vary. Most carbon on Earth, for instance, is carbon-12, which has six protons and six neutrons. But about 1% of carbon is carbon-13, which has seven neutrons. The most common isotope of helium is helium-4, which has two neutrons, but there’s also helium-3, which only has one. Most of the water molecules in Earth’s oceans are made up of hydrogen with no neutrons (hydrogen-1), but about one out of every 3200 water molecules contains a hydrogen with one neutron, also known as deuterium (water made from deuterium is sometimes known as “heavy water”).
We can visualize isotopes on what’s called a nuclide chart, shown below. The horizontal axis is the number of neutrons in a nucleus, while the vertical axis is the number of protons.

We can see that most elements have several different isotopes, most of which are unstable. Only the isotopes in black in the chart above are stable; everything else will eventually decay. Red isotopes on the chart above decay by what’s known as “beta-plus” decay or electron capture, turning a proton into a neutron. Teal isotopes decay by “beta-minus” decay, turning a neutron into a proton. Yellow isotopes decay by “alpha” decay, emitting an alpha particle (two protons and two neutrons). The rate at which an isotope decays into another isotope is typically described as its “half-life” — the amount of time it takes for half of a sample to undergo radioactive decay. Half-lives can vary wildly, from tiny fractions of a second for hydrogen-5 to hundreds of millions of years for uranium-235.
For isotopes that are stable, or that decay slowly enough that they can be found in the environment, it’s sometimes possible to obtain them by separating them out from other isotopes. But this is often difficult, because isotopes tend to be chemically identical, and most separation methods must rely on minute differences in the atoms’ weights. Much of the difficulty in the Manhattan Project, for instance, was in creating sufficient concentrations of a specific isotope of uranium, uranium-235, that would undergo nuclear fission. Uranium-235 only makes up about 0.72% of natural uranium, and producing a single, football-sized lump of it required a processing facility the size of a small city.
But many isotopes can’t be found in nature at all. There’s no natural source of the technetium-99m or molybdenum-99 used for medical imaging, or the selenium-75 used for welding inspection. It’s thus useful to be able to manufacture specific isotopes.
How do we do this?
At a high level, creating isotopes means rearranging the interior of an atom. In some cases, this happens by natural radioactive decay. The americium-241 used in smoke detectors, for instance, mostly comes from decaying plutonium-241. But for most isotopes we’re interested in, we can’t rely on natural mechanisms; instead, we have to deliberately rearrange atomic nuclei by bombarding them with different sorts of particles. Depending on the sort of particle you hit the nucleus with, the energy of that particle, and the nature of the target atom, you can create different sorts of reactions. These reactions are typically described by the following format: target(input particle, released particle)product. So in 1917 when Rutherford bombarded nitrogen atoms with alpha particles, producing oxygen and hydrogen nuclei (protons), that reaction was N-14(alpha,p)O-17. The figure below shows different sorts of reactions and how they move an atom to a different location on the nuclide chart.
There are a few different ways we can hit an atom with a particle. One is to use a particle accelerator, such as the cyclotron, invented in 1929 by Ernest Lawrence (who would go on to win a Nobel Prize for his invention). The cyclotron uses powerful electromagnetic fields to accelerate charged particles along spiral paths. With his 27-inch particle accelerator, Lawrence could accelerate helium nuclei to roughly 1% of the speed of light.

It wasn’t long after Lawrence created his cyclotron that it began to be used to create various isotopes. Naturally occurring radium was already being used to treat cancer with radiation, and Lawrence hired personnel to investigate the potential of using cyclotron-created isotopes for medical and research purposes, such as radioactive phosphorus-32. Phosphorus-32, which has one more neutron than the stable phosphorus-31, was a promising research isotope because organisms naturally incorporate and accumulate phosphorus: if that phosphorus were radioactive, it would allow various metabolic pathways to be observed and possibly allow for highly targeted radiation treatments. Lawrence quickly found that demand for phosphorus-32 for experimental cancer treatments and biological research was “almost insatiable,” and by 1939 a dozen cancer patients had been treated with cyclotron-produced phosphorus-32.
Particle accelerators are still used to produce isotopes today. GE Healthcare, for instance, sells several different medical cyclotrons. The GE PETtrace 800 uses a beam of hydrogen or deuterium nuclei (protons or proton + neutron) to create isotopes such as oxygen-15, nitrogen-13, and fluorine-18, which are then used for medical imaging.
The downside of particle accelerators is that it’s hard to use them to produce a large volume of material efficiently. A medical accelerator costs in the single-digit millions (plus several more millions for the facility to house it) and can only produce about a dust-grain-sized speck of material every hour.
This is due largely to how particle accelerators work. They accelerate particles using electromagnetic fields and so only work on charged particles: electrons, protons, or positively charged atomic nuclei. With electrons, it’s apparently hard to get them to trigger nuclear reactions because they don’t feel the strong nuclear force — electron accelerators thus mostly work by firing the electron into another target and triggering the release of gamma rays, but most of this beam will end up as heat. Because protons or alpha particles are positively charged, they’ll be repelled by the positively charged nucleus of the target, similarly reducing conversion efficiency and creating a lot of heat that must be dealt with. When the PETTrace 800 uses protons to make fluorine-18 (which uses oxygen-18 as an input), only about 1 in 800 protons enters the oxygen nucleus.
Another way to create the necessary particle collisions is to use nuclear fission: unstable atomic nuclei splitting apart when struck by a neutron. There are a couple of ways to leverage this. One is to simply harvest the products nuclear fission naturally generates. Molybdenum-99, for instance, is naturally produced during the fission of uranium-235 and plutonium-239. Strontium-90 is similarly a byproduct of nuclear fission and is sometimes harvested from spent nuclear fuel.
You can also use nuclear fission as a particle source. The fission of uranium-235 releases neutrons, which can then be used to bombard various targets to produce isotopes. Cobalt-60, for instance, a widely used radiation source, is created by placing cobalt-59 in a fission reactor, causing some of the atoms to absorb a neutron via neutron capture.
Using nuclear fission as a source of radioactive isotopes began almost as soon as the first nuclear reactors were created. Long before the Atomic Energy Commission built the first nuclear power plants, it was shipping reactor-created isotopes across the country and around the world for medical and scientific research. By 1956, more than a year before the first US civilian power station at Shippingport came online, there were 50,000 isotope purchases per year from the AEC.
But there are also drawbacks to using fission as an isotope source. For one, fission reactors are highly regulated, and constructing them is difficult and expensive. For another, most of the neutrons produced by fission reactors aren’t particularly high-energy, and in power reactors they’re generally deliberately slowed down to increase the chances that they’ll strike an atom and continue the chain reaction. The average fission neutron is created around 1.5–2 million electron volts (MeV), moving at about 6.5% of the speed of light, but in power reactors they’re slowed down using a moderator to about 0.025 electron volts. And even without moderation, the relatively low energy of most fission neutrons means that many nuclear reaction rates will be slow, and other reactions are out of reach.
To create isotopes efficiently, what we’d like is some way to generate a lot of neutrons at much higher energies. This would make many sorts of nuclear reactions possible while avoiding the inefficiencies of using particle accelerators.
One way to do this is with nuclear fusion. Much has been made about the difficulties of creating a fusion power plant, but fusion has always been a problem of efficiency: getting more energy out of your reaction than you put into it. Creating the fusion reaction in the first place has never been the issue, and fusion reactions have been created in the lab as far back as the 1930s. And these fusion reactions reliably produce high-energy neutrons. While fission can produce high-energy neutrons, only around 0.1% of them will be above 10 MeV. By contrast, neutrons produced when fusing hydrogen-2 (deuterium) and hydrogen-3 (tritium) are 14 MeV or more. Fusion has historically not been used to produce isotopes, but today a variety of startups and organizations are pursuing the idea. SHINE Technologies is currently building a facility, Chrysalis, to create Mo-99 via a complex process that requires a particle accelerator, a fission reaction, and a fusion reaction. Italy’s SORGENTINA-RF program similarly wants to create Mo-99 using fusion-generated neutrons. Marathon Fusion wants to use fusion neutrons to create a variety of different isotopes, such as terbium-149 and actinium-225 for cancer treatments, as does New Zealand fusion startup OpenStar.
Beyond its ability to generate high-energy neutrons, fusion also has the potential to make isotope manufacturing dramatically cheaper, at least for some isotopes/reactions. Particle accelerators take a lot of energy to operate: GE’s PETtrace draws about 75 kW, roughly as much as 75 microwaves when it’s running, which sets some floor on how cheaply they can produce anything. At 75 kW, it would take around 0.7 terawatt-hours to produce a gram of fluorine-18, which is around 1.5 hours of the entire electricity output of the US.
Energy costs aren’t actually all that significant for medical isotope production, since the doses are microscopic (600,000 doses of fluorine-18 combined weigh about as much as a single grain of salt). But if you wanted to produce large amounts of isotopes — grams, pounds, tons — it would eventually become a binding factor. And a particle accelerator is essentially only producing isotopes: the isotopes must be priced high enough to recover the costs of building and operating the facility. With fusion, however, your isotope-producing reactions can (potentially) also produce energy — so if you use the right reactions, you could use the sale of that energy to help pay for the facility and its operation.2 It’s conceivable that the right energy-generating fusion reactions, in the right arrangements, might be able to produce isotopes far more cheaply.
What sort of things become possible if we can produce isotopes far more cheaply? There are a few major categories of interest.
Medicine
One of the largest isotope markets, with some of the most expensive isotopes, is medicine. With medical imaging isotopes, a patient is given a very small amount of radioactive material, which gets taken up by the body and (generally) incorporated into specific cells or substances. Fluorine-18, for instance, gets incorporated into a glucose-like molecule called FDG, that the body then absorbs as if it were glucose. By monitoring the radiation released by the isotope, some area of the body or biological process can be monitored.
Medical isotopes are also used for radiation treatment. Some elements naturally collect in certain areas of the body, and radioactive isotopes can be used to deliver targeted treatment. Iodine, for instance, naturally collects in the thyroid gland, and radioactive iodine-131 can be used to treat thyroid cancer. Other isotopes, such as actinium-225, decay by emitting alpha particles, which travel an extremely short distance in tissue, also making them useful for delivering very targeted radiation therapy. A better process for manufacturing these isotopes could potentially allow existing medical isotopes to be made more cheaply and reliably; actinium-225, for instance, is a potentially promising isotope for cancer treatment, but current supplies are so limited that only a small number of patients a year can be treated using it. A better process could also potentially enable the creation of entirely new medical isotopes.
Nuclear power inputs
Both fission and fusion reactors rely on isotopes for various parts of their operation. For fusion, the reaction that creates valuable tritium within the fusion cycle requires an isotope of lithium, lithium-6, which makes up about 7% of all lithium and which currently must be produced via an expensive process of lithium enrichment (which is currently only done in Russia and China). Conventional fission reactors, similarly, require the extremely pure lithium-7 produced by the same process, since naturally occurring lithium with too much lithium-6 would absorb too many neutrons. Some new proposed fission reactors, such as TerraPower’s molten salt reactor, require another isotope, chlorine-37, which is currently only produced by the gram but is needed by the ton. A reliable, cheap source of these sorts of isotopes could thus potentially be very valuable (though as I understand it these are much less valuable than medical isotopes, since they’re stable and can be produced via separation processes, so probably not something we’ll see produced via fusion in the near term).
Nuclear batteries
One of the many nuclear technologies that remain somewhat under-explored is nuclear batteries: a battery that generates electric current using a small amount of radioactive material. These sorts of batteries were used for pacemakers for several decades, and are used to power spacecraft, but with the ability to manufacture better battery isotopes many other uses might be found, such as undersea drones that can stay permanently submerged for monitoring undersea cables.
Materials
In some cases, the nuclear chemistry process might let you make “normal” materials that are otherwise difficult or expensive to get. Marathon Fusion got a lot of attention last year (and last week) for a fusion neutron-driven reaction that can create gold using mercury as an input.
Cheap nuclear chemistry might also allow you to more efficiently make what’s known as “isotopically pure” materials. Most elements found in nature have multiple stable isotopes, and thus any minerals or materials that contain them will contain a mix of different isotopes. Steel, for instance, will be a mixture of several different stable isotopes of iron (iron-54, 56, 57, and 58) and carbon (carbon-12 and 13). But if you could make isotopes very cheaply, you could possibly more easily produce materials entirely using one elemental isotope, such as semiconductors that only contain silicon-28.
In some cases, these isotopically pure materials might have interesting or useful material properties. Isotopically pure diamond has far higher thermal conductivity than regular diamond, for instance (as do, apparently, many other isotopically pure materials). And because of its different quantum-mechanical properties, isotopically pure silicon is useful for building quantum computers.
Historically producing isotopically pure materials has been so difficult that much about them remains unknown; reducing the cost of making isotopes could break open this field of study.
For many technologies, how big an impact they have is a function of how cheap they can get. Solar PV was a niche power generation technology before decades of falling down the learning curve; steel was an expensive material used in limited ways before Henry Bessemer and others found ways to produce it cheaply; Ford’s Model T changed the world not because it was the first car, but because of how cheaply Ford could manufacture it. So a technology that offers the potential to produce some existing thing far more cheaply is always interesting to me, and I’ll be paying attention to see how this develops with isotopes.
Technetium-99m is technetium that’s in what’s known as a “metastable” state, an excited state that eventually decays to regular technium-99, emitting gamma rays in the process.
Specifically, most fusion uses deuterium and tritium as inputs, known as D-T fusion. Deuterium is incredibly common, but tritium is rare and expensive. But you can add a step to the fusion reaction so that it also creates tritium, reducing or eliminating the need for an outside source of it.
The organ procurement system has long been a miasma of inefficient monopoly providers. In 2024 I quoted some shocking facts from a great Statecraft interview with Jennifer Erickson and Greg Segal:
“Organs are literally lost and damaged in transit every single week. The OPTN contractor is 15 times more likely to lose or damage an organ in transit than an airline is a suitcase.”
Organs are not GPS-tracked!
“In an era when consumers can precisely monitor a FedEx package or a DoorDash dinner delivery, there are no requirements to track shipments of organs in real time — or to assess how many may be damaged or lost in transit.
“If Amazon can figure out when your paper towels and your dog food is going to arrive within 20 to 30 minutes, it certainly should be reasonable that we ought to track lifesaving organs, which are in chronic shortage,” Axelrod said.
Here’s one more astounding statistics:
“Seventeen percent of kidneys are offered to at least one deceased person before they are transplanted….”
Did you get that? The tracking system for patients is so dysfunctional that 17% of kidneys are offered to patients who are already dead–thus creating delays and missed opportunities.
Fortunately, even then there were changes in the works. In 2019 President Trump issued Executive Order 13879 to improve the performance of OPOs with better incentives and to allow living donors to recover more of their costs. The government being what it is, it has taken years to implement some of the new rules and enforcement of the OPO performance measures was deferred to 2026-2027. Nevertheless, there have been improvements. For example, many OPOs now GPS-track kidney transfers. And a new report estimates there have been significant gains from the changes.
The biggest and most consequential change would be to allow payment to living organ donors. The End Kidney Deaths Act, H.R. 2687, proposes a $50,000 refundable tax credit over five years for qualifying nondirected living kidney donors. The act has bipartisan support. Because dialysis is so expensive—and the federal government pays for much of it through Medicare’s special kidney-failure entitlement—the Act could save taxpayers money as well as saving lives.
Hat tip: The indefatigable Elaine Perlman.
The post Better Incentives, More Kidneys, More Lives appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

A wayfaring cosmopolitan who never gets stuck, the dilettante is the right anti-hero for our hyper-specialised age
- by Jay Miller
Craig Hockenberry:
If you noticed that the Iconfactory sites were kinda broken last week, now you know why. It’s because I was kinda broken last week.
Now I’m finishing this post from a comfy chair on our deck. Typing into the latest version of WordPress and PHP. And I couldn’t be happier.
No, you teared up a little reading this.
Very good news from a very good friend.
Rolfe Winkler, in a crackerjack story for The Wall Street Journal (gift link):
Blevins, who left Apple in 2022, sometimes set up back-to-back meetings with suppliers so that rival sales teams might run into each other, stoking competitive tension. Sales representatives learned to pack nutrition bars to sustain them through negotiating sessions that Apple executives sometimes pushed past midnight without a dinner break. Blevins’s bad-cop reputation gave his staff leverage: They threatened to call him in if contract terms weren’t to their liking.
One significant contract term allowed Apple to audit its suppliers’ books. Flash makers typically had to designate Apple as a “most favored customer,” which guaranteed that no other buyer got a lower price, according to people familiar with the agreements. Apple’s audits allowed it to verify that no one paid less.
Apple caught Micron selling flash at cheaper prices to another customer and won an arbitration settlement worth tens of millions of dollars more than a decade ago, said people familiar with the dispute. Apple audited its suppliers so often that Blevins negotiated a volume discount with the auditor, Deloitte.
The whole story is a fascinating and entertaining read. But I don’t get the “revenge” angle in the headline. The biggest buyers can negotiate the best deals. Apple used to be the biggest buyer, by far, for flash memory chips. They negotiated, with hardball but above-the-board tactics, the best deals. Now, Apple isn’t the biggest buyer — the AI datacenter hyperscalers are. Apple no longer gets the best deals. But they’re still getting fair deals. Apple is still negotiating the best deals it can for itself. So where is the “revenge”? The pinch mostly isn’t being felt by Apple — it’s being felt by Apple’s customers, who now face significantly higher product prices.
I included “mostly” in the preceding sentence because Winkler, in collaboration with the research firm TechInsights, makes the case in the piece that the rising costs of flash memory have eaten into the remarkably juicy profit margins Apple has historically earned from higher-storage upgrades.
What I also don’t get, at all, is the participation in the story by Scott Nelson, the chief marketing officer at Kioxia (which I learned in this story is the new name for the company formerly known as Toshiba Memory Corporation), a major flash supplier. Nelson told Winkler he so loathes Apple that he shot his old iPod with a rifle and keeps the pieces on his desk. The article ends thus:
The industry’s low point came in 2023. The Covid-era, work-from-home device boom cooled, and flash prices bottomed out at 5 cents a gigabyte. Bernstein Research estimated the flash industry generated operating losses of $19 billion that year, while Apple earned $14 billion in gross profit selling extra flash storage.
Those were tough times that “I hope we don’t ever see again,” said Nelson, the Kioxia sales executive.
Yes, I’m sure the current AI datacenter mania will last forever, the bubble will never burst, and that even if it does, no one at Apple will remember Nelson’s participation in this story.
How Jason Snell beat me to linking to this, I don’t know. But like I said back in February, when it comes to signage, “Mind your P’s and Q’s” ought to be “Mind your H’s and S’s”.
I don’t want to go poll by poll. You know where to find them. But we have new and pretty bullish new poll data in the battle for the Senate. (Yes, they’re just polls. They can be wrong and all that.) A bunch of polls have come out in the last 48 hours, including two high quality ones (CNN and NYT/Siena). Both show pretty substantial leads for Democrats in key Senate races.
Here are some general observations.
The one place where Republicans can have some optimism is in Iowa. Democrat Josh Turek could easily win. He even has a nominal lead in the polling averages. But this is a tie race. And relative to what we’ve seen in much redder states, Republican Ashley Hinson, who I think is an objectively good candidate in a very bad environment, has at least kept very much in this race. So these are reasons for GOP optimism in a moment where there’s very few reasons for optimism available.
We’ve had a bunch of strong polls for Abdul El-Sayed. We have CNN and another lower-tier poll just out with El-Sayed 7 points ahead. A few days earlier one of the two in-state signature polls, Glengariff Group, had him 6 points ahead. The outlier here is InsiderAdvantage, a strongly pro-GOP poll, which had him at the same time as the Glengariff poll at +1. El-Sayed could certainly lose but if he does it will be a significant polling error.
South Carolina genuinely, bizarrely, seems in contention. NYT/Siena just showed it a tie race. Three other slightly older polls have Graham up +3,+4 and +1. So a lead but not far off from the Times poll. I saw one operative note that GOP governor candidate Alan Wilson has a very high single-digit lead. That’s a big delta and South Carolina has straight ticket voting. That could potentially save Graham here. Truly everything has to come into alignment for Democrat Annie Andrews to win. The ability to vote a straight ticket in what is not only usually a strongly Republican state but appears to remain strongly Republican outside this one Senate race could make a small but real difference. Who knows? What’s amazing is that there’s a real chance Andrews could win. To put this into perspective, Nate Silver’s probabilities say that Andrews is significantly more likely to win than Republicans are to hold the Senate. Take it for what you will.
We haven’t had a premium poll out of Kansas in about a month. CNN’s new poll shows Democrat Adam Hamilton up four points. Given the partisan muscle memory in Kansas and the real but limited recent history of GOP-underestimating polling error being strongest in very red states, I still think you have to consider this a straight toss up. But still, Kansas.
I jest, a bit, in the title. As I’ve told you several times, friends don’t let friends watch the early vote. But there’s one thing I want to point your attention to. I’ll explain in a moment why this leaves me mainly consistent.
There’s one thing that seems to be showing up fairly consistently across the country and particularly in the Deep South. That is a high proportion of generally younger, non-regular Democratic voters. And they tend to be less white, relative to the rest of the electorate. In a number of Deep South states you’re seeing high turnout for non-regular Democratic voters which in states like Mississippi for instance means mostly Black voters.
As I’ve mentioned a number of times, the problem with watching the early vote is that you’re trying to figure out a candidate’s percentage of the pie before you know the size of the pie. Maybe one party is doing great in the early vote but they’re really just cannibalizing their Election Day vote so it’s meaningless. The sharper people who analyze these things are operating at a much higher level of sophistication than this illustration suggests; but the same fundamental problem applies. What’s different here is that you’re talking about a group of voters who aren’t usually part of the pie at all. So you can draw some different inferences. Needless to say, these people could be matched by a bunch of non-regular Republican voters on Election Day. But there’s accumulating evidence that points against that.
To be clear, something like what I’m describing above is what you’d expect to see in a strong wave election. So this isn’t “wow, it’s even bigger than we thought.” This is just an indicator that would be broadly consistent with a big wave — nothing you can be sure of and in itself it’s a relatively small slice of the electorate. Just keep it in mind.
The other thing is that we’re starting to see signs that Callais (the decision which effectively killed the Voting Rights Act) is spiking Black turnout in the states where Republicans most aggressively moved to disenfranchise Black voters. This overlaps with the point I made above since by definition, higher than usual turnout means non-regular voters showing up. The biggest pool of non-regular voters are younger voters. I note this in large part because I’m seeing Republican pollsters worrying about it too.
As I’ve said previously, don’t take this as confirming anything is going to happen when the votes are counted. It’s more that if Democrats have a strong night, these details about the shape of the electorate will probably be key parts of that outcome.
Very much a feature of this moment that while Donald Trump is spending resources to upend the constitutional order he’s also expending resources on weird personal fetishes, like in this case a maniacal need to refurb a semi-run-down but comfy and convenient local D.C. golf course.
As we get ready for the final days of the 2026 midterm campaign, I wanted to flag some key parts of our coverage. First, don’t miss our midterms liveblog which you can find on the front page and also at this link. We’re starting with a focus on election interference issues and then we’ll shift toward broader Election Day news and results as we move into next week. Next, the TPM team has done a comprehensive analysis of just who certifies election results in each of the Senate swing states and what funny business they can pull. You can see that here. We also have our take on which 13 races we think will define the midterms, which you can read here. Finally, join us here Tuesday night. For the first time we’re going to be doing live video coverage of election night. Think of it as comparable to what you might see on CNN or MS NOW but with more insight about how to understand the results, what’s happening in key counties and precincts rather than just the toplines and just TPM level analysis. I hope you’ll join us.
Apple Developer News:
Apple is making changes to the Taiwan storefront of the App Store, following discussions with the Taiwan Fair Trade Commission.
As of October 31, 2026, the commission rate for standard Apple In-App Purchase and paid app transactions will be 26% on the Taiwan storefront of the App Store on iOS and iPadOS. Currently, that rate is 30%.
Well there we go. The App Store in Taiwan — just like in Japan — is fixed.
No big news or even original analysis in this post, just a general observation. I was just looking at the VoteHub Senate predictions. This is a relatively new entrant into the election modeling/forecasting world. They’re a bit more cautious than Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, seeing the most likely outcome as Democrats taking 52 seats versus 53. That’s probably actually technically the median result of running numerous modeling simulations. In any case, I was looking at the categories in which they place different races. For instance, they put Texas, as “Lean D”, so more likely to flip than Ohio, Maine and Iowa. I’m not sure that’s wrong. But it’s just wild to see.
A year ago the conventional wisdom was that only Maine was a plausible pick up opportunity, maybe North Carolina. But Democrats have been disappointed by North Carolina plenty of times in the fifteen years or so. And Democrats would be lucky just to hold on to Georgia. We’re simply talking about a range of states that no one was even considering a year ago.
What struck me, though, looking at this, was how hard it is for me to even have a hunch on some of these states because they’re just so Republican that I have no baseline for even evaluating them in partisan terms.
Let me restate the obvious which is that I don’t work with data analysis and modeling like all the folks in that space do. These are my own efforts to figure things out, which are a mix of experience, intuition, etc., not really data-driven in any sophisticated sense. But like Kansas? Who knows? That’s a seriously Republican state! The thing about Kansas is that it’s more Republican than the Republican party, by which I mean that Kansas was Republican when the GOP was a predominantly northern party. It’s still totally Republican when the GOP is a predominantly southern party. It hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in almost a century. We have a range of different data points which make it seem like this really might be happening there. In fact, if you really strain to look at the data in just the right way maybe it’s not even a toss up. But those are just shards of evidence here or there. There are plenty of plausible ways that Republican Roger Marshall could end up winning by mid- or even high single digits and the whole thing was a mirage.
But what baselines, what frameworks do you use to evaluate when and whether a state like Kansas is primed to elect a Democrat. Truly who knows? It hasn’t happened in a century. And it’s not just Kansas. A number of these states are similar, at least to the extent that recent history, at least to me, provides very little frame of reference for evaluating a competitive partisan race.
Regional GOP chair from Indiana sending out a letter reminding the members of the party central committee for the state’s third congressional district that they’re obligated to vote for Republican party candidates …

Maybe so:
Misdemeanors account for three-quarters of criminal cases filed annually in the United States, yet causal evidence on the impacts of misdemeanor conviction is scarce. We combine administrative and survey data to provide novel evidence of how misdemeanor conviction affects the socioeconomic outcomes of defendants and their families. Using data on nearly seven million defendants from 11 states, we characterize the types of people involved with the misdemeanor system. We estimate causal impacts of a conviction relative to a charge using seven county reforms that sharply reduced conviction rates. Regression discontinuity design estimates yield precise null average effects of the reforms on criminal and labor market outcomes. Defendants dismissed by the reform are unlikely to re-offend if dismissed, but also unlikely to be harmed by conviction—marginal defendants are older and more likely to have been charged with minor crimes than the average defendant. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that conviction harms young and first-time defendants, implying that interventions targeting dismissal toward these groups would be beneficial. Finally, our causal estimates imply a negative Marginal Value of Public Funds of misdemeanor conviction, even under plausible estimates of general deterrence effects.
That is from recent research by Nikhil Rao and James Reeves, note that Rao is this year on the job market from University of Michigan.
The post Are there too many misdemeanor convictions? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Scott Carlson did the work (gated, but free with registration), here is one excerpt:
Cowen: …Another proposal I’ve made is that schools should let people do one class, only one class, AI-only — no professor, except a professor grades at the end. The professor grades not answers to an exam but the workflow of how the student used AI to learn the Glorious Revolution, or the Civil War, or whatever the student learned. Eventually, another AI will grade your AI log. But let’s start today with a professor, and try this for one class. I’m not sure how it will go. But especially for small schools that don’t offer that many classes, a student now can create a class in literally everything.
If it’s successful, let them try two classes. I think the students doing this on their own are more likely to figure out how to blend AI and education than we would from a distance with some kind of centralized vision. Let them experiment.
Carlson: Students should be leading the change at colleges and universities?
Cowen: Absolutely. Students know more about AI than their professors do. Some of this comes from cheating, which is unfortunate. But the notion that the professors teach the students AI — I wish. It’s not always possible. You could imagine setting up a class where the students teach the professors AI, and we give the students credit for teaching. I’m half joking, but it’s not, in fact, a crazy idea. We need to experiment along a number of fronts. I’m quite convinced no one knows how to do this. It hasn’t been done before. So again, just one class. In general, schools hate this idea. They see it as opening the door to rendering some professors obsolete.
And this:
Carlson: There are a number of students who are deeply opposed to AI. What place do they have in this university that you’re thinking about?
Cowen: I would love to have different schools with different policies. If some universities try to ban AI altogether, that’s great. Let the competitive process operate. Personally, I would bet against those schools. For a long time, I’ve been worried that within a given tier of school — big state school, community college, Ivy League — there’s not enough diversity. AI policies will force a kind of diversity on us. So I’m all for no-AI schools, even though I would not go to one.
Recommended.
The post Chronicle of Higher Education interviews me on AI and education appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
every product i use should just be a headless mcp, that feeds into an agent, where i never have to think about anything underneath.
except for our product, of course.
in our product, customers love the ui and love us very much.
we're special that way.
Tags: model-context-protocol, ai
API credits benefit for eligible ChatGPT subscriptions
Earlier this month Anthropic announced a generous new benefit for their Max and Team subscriptions: $100, $200, and $500 per month subscribers would get the equivalent quantity of (expiring) credits to use with the Anthropic API.OpenAI have now launched pretty much exactly the same deal: if you have a $100, $200, or $500 subscription plan with them you now get that same quantity of credits to apply to one of your API organizations.
I maintain subscriptions with both companies, so this is great news for me! I may even ship some public-facing demos now that the credits are already covered by my existing subscriptions.
Tags: ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, llm-pricing
How I Built the Most AI-Pilled Company in the World
Don't be put off by the clickbait headline, this piece by Jacob Sansbury describing how they are building Spawn is a fascinating exploration of the bleeding edge of what's possible with agentic engineering against frontier models.Spawn is a massively multiplayer gaming environment where players can use prompts (to the in-game agent, Savi) to modify the game world.
I fired it up on my phone for a few minutes and was able to prompt a castle into existence, then a dragon, then ride the dragon to fly around that castle.

By Jacob's telling, Spawn is now being developed autonomously by a swarm of Fable-powered agents costing over $3 million in tokens per month ("we spend 30x payroll on AI tokens").
Our agents change the live code directly and ship to production hourly, so they read every error, bug report and metric themselves. About 60% of our work starts from a production error, a Savi bug report (Savi is the AI you build games with in Spawn), something odd in our logs, or a feature request.
Savi files bugs herself. When a user hits one, or Savi hits one in the product, she files it. It goes straight to an agent that decides whether it's a real bug to fix, something we won't fix, or intentional design that needs a decision. Usually it becomes a change, delivered to that user within an hour, with a message in the same chat.
This is continuous deployment turned up to 11:
A loop this tight only works if it never stops, so we treat an hour without a ship as a SEV-0, our most severe kind of incident. Unshipped changes pile up, and every problem already in production lasts longer. The feedback slows down too. An agent can only keep a few hours of work in its head, so shipping faster than that actually helps it stay coherent. [...]
We can roll back a broken change in 30 seconds, exactly where it's broken and nowhere else. When a monitor or a log alert fires, it starts or wakes an agent that owns the incident, and we break things on purpose to test that those recovery paths work.
My eyebrows raised at least a dozen times reading this. I have trouble imagining this style of development working on software with higher stakes for when something goes wrong, but for a game this appears to be working surprisingly well.
Jacob says that Fable 5 (and then 5.1) was the model that made this level of autonomy possible. Opus 5.5 doesn't quite hack it for them, and when they tried GPT-6 Astra to apply fixes from a security review everything stopped working:
Every feature had been disabled and marked to be turned on again once the security fixes were done. Astra had gone through our whole product and made the insecure things secure by turning them off.
These kinds of extreme experiments are why I'm excited about game development as a substrate for exploring the edges of what today's coding agents can do.
Tags: game-design, ai, generative-ai, llms, claude, coding-agents, agentic-engineering, claude-mythos-fable
According to recently released discovery materials, Meta directly targeted Jonathan Haidt by trying to stir up academics to oppose him. The odd thing is that many of us scholars who disagree with him knew nothing about this and weren’t not involved in it. And so now scholars like the amazing Candice Odgers are being doubted about the sincerity of their critique. WTAF upside down world are we living it?
What’s super frustrating is that many scholars in the teens-tech-mental health space are repeatedly accused of fabricating research or being corporate shills when our research is politically inconvenient. I know that I have been. Repeatedly. And it sucks.
When I was still in graduate school, I was asked to serve on the Internet Safety Technical Task Force. One of my responsibilities was to oversee the research effort. I worked with other scholars to track down all studies that focused on content, contact, and conduct related harms involving the internet. The politicians were primarily interested in the question of pedophiles. When I provided the report to then Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, he told me to go find different data. He did not like what I had found. I didn’t know what to say.
Predation is real. It’s devastating. But it’s a more complex dynamic than most people’s mental image allows for. And when it comes to internet-enabled predation, the biggest risk is not teenagers using the latest social media site. The biggest risk is single moms using online dating apps. Pedophiles seek out these women to get access to their children. It’s sick. But no one wants to hear that. They want to focus on the digital tools young people use.
After our report was published, I started getting calls from journalists. I earnestly and naively responded to all of them. One of the journalists was from PBS Frontline. She called me up repeatedly, drilling me on questions about arguments in the report. I responded by providing study after study to every inquiry, pointing her to different researchers who were experts on different parts of this puzzle. After a few weeks of this, I got what would be the last call from her. She started out by apologizing to me.
Unbeknownst to me, some of Richard Blumenthal’s ardent supporters for his Senatorial campaign were outraged that I dared to challenge the politician’s arguments about internet safety. They were determined to prove that I was falsifying data on behalf of the tech industry. The Frontline reporter told me she was assigned to uncover my duplicitousness. She had concluded I hadn’t done anything but report on the scientific insights of the field. She spiked the story, but she warned me that I had pissed off some very powerful people and I would probably have to deal with being demonized going forward for standing up for research. Ugh.
Ironically, I first started truly despising Facebook-the-company while I was working on that task force. I got to watch up close how the company built a coordinated campaign against MySpace, intentionally creating the impression that MySpace was dangerous while Facebook was safe. And I witnessed teenagers process this through the language of racism and classism, prompting me to write a very controversial essay that turned into my paper “White Flight in Networked Publics?” I was fascinated – and disgusted – by the executive who seemed to do the dirty work on behalf of the CEO and COO, unbeknownst to others in the company. I called him the bulldog. The bulldog continued to harass all sorts of different people.
These days, I have absolutely nothing nice to say about Meta-the-company despite knowing a few amazing people who work there. I think the company is unethical to the core. And the products have enshittified so badly that they’re unrecognizable compared to what teenagers used to use. Hence my argument that “Social Media is Now Parasocial Media.” But I still stand by my research on teens and the research of others who have done rigorous analyses putting teens’ lives into context. Teenagers live in the world we create for them – and they use what’s available to them, regardless of how they feel about it. In the past, teens turned to Facebook to socialize and make sense of public life. Today, Facebook is dead to teens and Instagram feels more like some sketchy version of MTV. Socialization is on group chats, some of which unfold on WhatsApp. But most teens have nothing nice to say about Facebook.
Many teenagers in our contemporary world are struggling. I’ve gotten to see that upfront through my work at Crisis Text Line, which I adore. And I’ve gotten to consistently witness how the problems that they face cannot be explained by their tech use. Because of this, removing tech from their lives will not solve the major problems. And for some, like many of the teens who text Crisis Text Line in their darkest moments, losing access to a cell phone will eradicate an essential lifeline.
I have no interest in defending tech companies, but I am deeply committed to defending teenagers’ agency and choices in the world that we have given them. I am determined to make sure that those teens who don’t have supportive parents have pathways to get help. And my research has repeatedly led me to conclude that when we fail to empower teenagers to transition into adult worlds, we do them more harm. And when we focus on the tech, we fail to help those who need the help the most.
Many of the problems that I have with tech use are actually about adult tech use. Too many adults treat their phones as a pacifier to help them self-regulate. They’ve taught this bad habit to their kids. Too many adults fail to role model healthy sociality digitally and in-person friendship. Too many adults use their phones to be distracted from their own children. And then we’re surprised by the mirrors that teens offer back at us. “I learned it from watching you, dad.”
What kills me in the contemporary teens-and-tech debate is that there’s no space for actual research or critical nuance. You’re either opposed to the tech companies or in their pockets. And this week’s absurd discovery reinforces this infuriating polarity, painting those of us who are critical of Jonathan Haidt as being corporate shills. I find this especially frustrating because I did work in tech for a lot of my career. I played the role of friction inside many companies (although never Meta). I repeatedly got threatened by tech executives for challenging corporate mantras or providing research that contradicted their interests – and yet I persisted. Cuz many tech companies are far more complicated than people realize.
Still, I’ve had to grit and bear as I am attacked by other scholars for taking money from tech (as if any money in late-stage capitalism is clean money). And I had to stomach calls from representatives of the National Academies that I can’t even talk with their committee members because Jonathan Haidt told them that I was a corporate shill. And I’ve had to not weigh in on numerous recent debates because my peers and news outlets tell me I am tainted. In this political climate, I am unable to convince people that my research stems from the lessons I learned from teens, not what I learned from tech. I’ve mostly shrugged. But when journalists started going after Candice, I lost my mind and felt the need to share my story. The idea that she is being painted as a corporate shill is ludicrous.
Cuz here’s the thing… It IS possible to despise the tech companies AND understand why teenagers use their products and find value from doing so. Listen to teenagers; they get these contradictions. Their hatred of the tech companies is growing exponentially even as they use the tools those companies provide. (You should see their attitudes towards AI companies. Oooh-whee…) It’s also possible to care about kids’ mental health AND think that the solution doesn’t start and stop with tech. And it’s possible to do rigorous research AND discover that tech isn’t the biggest monster in teens’ lives that anti-tech advocates think it is.
Truth be told, I’d have no problem if certain social media platforms would be banned for everyone. I think that many of the products in this space have devolved into garbage. My objection is a teen-specific ban. I oppose legal controls of teenagers because adults are trying to cope with the guilt about their own failings. We are living through an era of anxious parents. It’s heartbreaking the costs of this anxiety.
Of course, if politicians want to implement an age-specific ban to target those most harmed by social media platforms, I’d be totally fine with banning elders from social media. That would do society a lot of good. Just think of what it would mean in terms of identity theft and fraud, not to mention disinformation. But that’s the rub. We believe that adults’ freedom of choice needs to never be constrained, but that it’s perfectly OK to micromanage teenagers. THIS is what I object to. I believe that teenagers deserve rights and agency. I think it’s utterly asinine that the United States never ratified the UN Rights of the Child. This doesn’t make me a corporate shill. This makes me an advocate for teenagers.
As I wrote over a decade ago, we’ve made ridiculous decisions that have undermined teenagers’ ability to socialize and connect with friends. And it keeps getting worse. Teens have lost the right to roam. In many parts of the country, they’re overscheduled and have nowhere to go to hang out with friends besides each other’s homes. Teenagers don’t have sustained access to mental health services (and they often have to go through their parents’ insurance to get access). They’re living through a polycrisis. And what they’re seeing in the world of adults is depressing. There’s a lot that we can do to help young people. But much of it starts locally. Much of it starts with adults checking their own behaviors. Much of it starts with intentionally investing in the social lives of young people. Giving them options. Creating space for them. Ensuring that they have robust social fabrics. Tech is a relief valve, and an increasingly terrible one. But taking tech away won’t do squat to address the underlying issues. And, worse, banning social media is basically an advertisement for it. Cuz right now, social media is dying a slow death among teens cuz it sucks so much. But teens are still looking for spaces in which they can connect and socialize and make sense of the world around them. What will it take for us to actually invest in young people?
Up, it being my Lord Mayor’s day, Sir Anthony Bateman.
This morning was brought home my new velvet cloake, that is, lined with velvet, a good cloth the outside, the first that ever I had in my life, and I pray God it may not be too soon now that I begin to wear it.
I had it this day brought, thinking to have worn it to dinner, but I thought it would be better to go without it because of the crowde, and so I did not wear it. We met a little at the office, and then home again and got me ready to go forth, my wife being gone forth by my consent before to see her father and mother, and taken her cooke mayde and little girle to Westminster with her for them to see their friends.
This morning in dressing myself and wanting a band, I found all my bands that were newly made clean so ill smoothed that I crumpled them, and flung them all on the ground, and was angry with Jane, which made the poor girle mighty sad, so that I were troubled for it afterwards.
At noon I went forth, and by coach to Guild Hall (by the way calling at Mr. Rawlinson’s), and there was admitted, and meeting with Mr. Proby (Sir R. Ford’s son), and Lieutenant-Colonel Baron, a City commander, we went up and down to see the tables; where under every salt there was a bill of fare, and at the end of the table the persons proper for the table. Many were the tables, but none in the Hall but the Mayor’s and the Lords of the Privy Council that had napkins1 or knives, which was very strange. We went into the Buttry, and there stayed and talked, and then into the Hall again: and there wine was offered and they drunk, I only drinking some hypocras, which do not break my vowe, it being, to the best of my present judgement, only a mixed compound drink, and not any wine. If I am mistaken, God forgive me! but I hope and do think I am not.
By and by met with Creed; and we, with the others, went within the several Courts, and there saw the tables prepared for the Ladies and Judges and Bishopps: all great sign of a great dinner to come. By and by about one o’clock, before the Lord Mayor came, come into the Hall, from the room where they were first led into, the Lord Chancellor (Archbishopp before him), with the Lords of the Council, and other Bishopps, and they to dinner. Anon comes the Lord Mayor, who went up to the lords, and then to the other tables to bid wellcome; and so all to dinner. I sat near Proby, Baron, and Creed at the Merchant Strangers’ table; where ten good dishes to a messe, with plenty of wine of all sorts, of which I drunk none; but it was very unpleasing that we had no napkins nor change of trenchers, and drunk out of earthen pitchers and wooden dishes.2
It happened that after the lords had half dined, came the French Embassador, up to the lords’ table, where he was to have sat; but finding the table set, he would not sit down nor dine with the Lord Mayor, who was not yet come, nor have a table to himself, which was offered; but in a discontent went away again.
After I had dined, I and Creed rose and went up and down the house, and up to the lady’s room, and there stayed gazing upon them. But though there were many and fine, both young and old, yet I could not discern one handsome face there; which was very strange, nor did I find the lady that young Dawes married so pretty as I took her for, I having here an opportunity of looking much upon her very near.
I expected musique, but there was none but only trumpets and drums, which displeased me. The dinner, it seems, is made by the Mayor and two Sheriffs for the time being, the Lord Mayor paying one half, and they the other. And the whole, Proby says, is reckoned to come to about 7 or 800l. at most.
Being wearied with looking upon a company of ugly women, Creed and I went away, and took coach and through Cheapside, and there saw the pageants, which were very silly, and thence to the Temple, where meeting Greatorex, he and we to Hercules Pillars, there to show me the manner of his going about of draining of fenns, which I desired much to know, but it did not appear very satisfactory to me, as he discoursed it, and I doubt he will faile in it.
Thence I by coach home, and there found my wife come home, and by and by came my brother Tom, with whom I was very angry for not sending me a bill with my things, so as that I think never to have more work done by him if ever he serves me so again, and so I told him.
The consideration of laying out 32l. 12s. this very month in his very work troubles me also, and one thing more, that is to say, that Will having been at home all the day, I doubt is the occasion that Jane has spoken to her mistress tonight that she sees she cannot please us and will look out to provide herself elsewhere, which do trouble both of us, and we wonder also at her, but yet when the rogue is gone I do not fear but the wench will do well.
To the office a little, to set down my Journall, and so home late to supper and to bed.
The Queen mends apace, they say; but yet talks idle still.
Footnotes
The boom in AI-related spending is already enormous relative to the size of the U.S. economy and is widely expected to grow even bigger. Indeed, a widely cited projection by Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of the Columbia Business School concludes, based on announced plans by major players in the industry, that this will be the biggest investment boom in U.S. history, measured as a percentage of GDP:
Source: Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Well, I’m going to make a prediction: This will not happen. Instead, the splurge on AI will run into two walls that will force either postponement or cancellation of many of those announced projects.
First, the money to fund all this AI investment spending simply won’t be there. Much of the spending so far has come from established industry giants like Google and Microsoft, who in the early phases of the boom could rely on retained earnings from their existing businesses. But the size of the buildout is now so big that it is increasingly dependent upon massive levels of borrowing.
And lenders are getting cold feet. Many observers have long argued that AI is an impressive technology, but profits will be elusive. And it’s now apparent that companies that are spending hundreds of billions on frontier technology are unlikely to generate enough profits to justify their huge outlays. There are a variety of reasons why, with the most obvious being competition from much cheaper and less powerful, yet commercially adequate, models from China.
After all, we’ve seen this movie before. The IT boom of the late 1990s changed the world, but it also ended with many tech leaders going bankrupt because they couldn’t monetize their achievements. During the last few weeks, lenders to AI companies seem to be having a collective Wile E. Coyote moment — the point at which the animated character, having run off a cliff, looks down and only then, obeying the laws of cartoon physics, plunges to the ground.
The financial data now clearly show that fear is spreading in the loan markets. Starting in the summer, CDS spreads — the price of insurance against default — have soared for a number of AI companies:
Coreweave, which basically sells compute, is in a league of its own in terms of high default risk. But other companies are also starting to show strain, especially Oracle. As yesterday’s Bloomberg headline put it,

With lenders running scared, and either demanding much higher interest rates or refusing to lend altogether, it’s increasingly difficult to see how the hyperscalers can realize their gargantuan investment plans unless someone is willing to take massive losses.
Furthermore, the AI investment boom is facing another huge obstacle: Most Americans really, really hate data centers and AI in general.
The polling on data centers is astonishingly negative. Not only do most Americans oppose construction of data centers near where they live, an almost equally large majority oppose building them anywhere in the U.S. And the opposition is much more intense than the support:
This hostility no doubt has multiple sources. Data centers impose real costs on communities through their consumption of water and electricity, as well as pollution if they build their own power supplies. At the same time, data centers, once up and running, provide almost no local jobs.
At a more cosmic level, there are widespread fears that AI will lead to mass unemployment and possibly even human extinction — fears that have been spread by the industry itself, in the belief that fear of apocalypse is good for their IPOs.
More generally, the race to build data centers, often accomplished through back-room deals with corrupt local politicians, feeds into the public sense that big-money elites are rigging the system against ordinary Americans.
But the American public is now fighting back, pitchforks in hand. Grassroots opposition is having a big effect because permits are needed to build giants data centers — permits that more and more local governments are refusing to grant in the face of local opposition. One important contributor to Oracle’s problems is the repeated rejection of permits for a natural gas pipeline to provide power to Project Jupiter, Oracle’s massive data center project in New Mexico.
Elsewhere, New York State has introduced a one-year moratorium on all construction of large new data centers, while a number of other states and local governments are considering major restrictions. Furthermore, the political environment is unlikely to become more favorable after the midterms given how well Democrats are polling across state and local races.
Granted, neither financing problems nor political opposition are likely, by themselves, to completely stop AI investment. But I predict they will greatly slow it down. And this would be a very good outcome, perhaps even allowing the AI bubble to deflate rather than bursting and thereby delivering a body-blow to the overall economy.
Yes, some companies – such as Coreweave – may very well go bust and many investors will be hurt. However, under current investment plans, there’s a high probability that a lot of that investment money would have been wasted and total losses would be many times larger. Thus, in the end, angry locals and panicky lenders may well end up saving investors from themselves. And, more importantly, slowing this juggernaut down may save the American economy from the devastation of the bursting of a gigantic AI bubble.
MUSICAL CODA
It’s almost hard to remember, but just a few years ago, a lot of very smart people thought that science was in terminal decline. Respected researchers were writing papers with titles like “Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?”, “Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time”, and “Slowed canonical progress in large fields of science”. In 1996, science writer John Horgan even published a book called The End Of Science: Facing The Limits Of Knowledge In The Twilight Of The Scientific Age.
The fundamental idea was that the Universe only has so many insights to discover, and that we’ve picked the low-hanging fruit. It was the idea that Joseph-Louis Lagrange expressed when he said that “we cannot find more than once a system of the world to establish.” As the big ideas and the simple ideas get mined out, we’re forced to throw ever more brains at the mysteries of nature just to keep scientific progress going at a fraction of its old pace:

It looked like science was hitting a wall. Then along came AI.
It’s far too early to tell how much AI will eventually speed up the growth of total factor productivity. But already we can see signs of a speedup in science. Anthropic Founder Jack Clark assembled some of the hopeful data points in a recent lecture:
Anthropic is accelerating its investment into drug discovery, and is already announcing some impressive preliminary results:
Claude also appears to be enabling rapid progress toward a treatment for food allergies. OpenAI, meanwhile, announced a possible breakthrough treatment for neurodegenerative disease.
Meanwhile, Google Cloud Chief Scientist Pushmeet Kohli has a list of recent scientific advances that have been enabled by its new Gemini model, including breakthroughs in nuclear fusion reactor design, rare disease research, and quantum computing:
But as cool as these stories sound, they’re just very minor, preliminary efforts. There are a number of reasons to think that AI is going to propel us into a golden age of scientific discovery. That age might not last forever — AI might still run into diminishing returns eventually. But the next few decades are probably going to be an absolutely amazing time for human science.
(Note: This post is written under the assumption that human civilization survives. A golden age of science could also easily turn into a golden age of bioterrorism, in which case all bets are off.)
The most important input into science is scientists themselves. Until this year, that meant human brains — talented, highly trained human brains. The number of trained human brains could be increased by sending more people to grad school, but only to a point — the smartest people tend to be sent into the hardest research fields first, and if you 10x the number of researchers, the average quality will go down. This constraint was already starting to bite, as Ekerdt and Wu argued in 2024:
We argue that a substantial portion of the downward historical trend in U.S. research productivity is a composition effect resulting from self-selection in researcher ability and the dramatic expansion of the research sector…[W]e find that this composition effect has lowered average researcher ability by between 37% and 53%[.]
And of course, low fertility was making the problem worse, because fewer children meant fewer people who were able to become future scientists.
AI just blows up this constraint completely. If an AI agent can function as an autonomous researcher, there’s no constraint on the number of researchers in the world — you can just build more of them, by building more computer chips and data centers that enable the running of more AI agents. Whether or not massive hordes of agents can collaborate to solve individual problems much faster, increasing the number of agents allows them to tackle many different research questions in parallel.
What’s more, these AI “researchers” can be trained incredibly quickly compared to human beings. A human scientist takes decades to train, and more years to reach the frontier of their research field by diligent reading and conversation. This is the “burden of knowledge”, and it’s commonly believed to be one reason ideas have been getting harder to find — by the time human scientists can get up to speed, they’re often so old that their ideas are no longer novel.
AI just annihilates this constraint — it can assimilate the entire literature and reach the frontier of research extremely quickly, and it can also tell human scientists where the frontier lies without forcing them to discover that for themselves. It can also pivot to new research directions more easily than humans can.
And there’s also a self-reinforcing economic cycle here. Because scientific advances enable higher GDP, they enable more resources to be invested into the creation of yet more electronic “scientists”.
Now that doesn’t mean the amount of scientific research goes to infinity — there may still be some essential bottleneck task that human researchers are still needed to perform. There are some indications that AI’s progress on open-ended conceptual research tasks is slower than in other dimensions, and it may be that humans are still needed to provide some of this long-term conceptual thinking. I’d bet against this being true for much longer, but it might be true for a long time.
Even in this most “pessimistic” case, though, the amount of effective capital that scientists can use to leverage their work just went up by a lot.
Science proceeds by an iterative process of theory and experiment. The theory part of that cycle is typically short, but non-trivial — it took a couple of years after the blackbody radiation spectrum was observed for Max Planck to come up with the quantum hypothesis to explain it, and decades longer before quantum theory as we now know it was created. It took about a year for Watson and Crick to figure out the shape of DNA after the requisite data was gathered.
AI will basically eliminate the theory bottleneck entirely — or at least shorten the turnaround time between experiment and theory by an order of magnitude. AI is an absolute beast at math. Recently, an OpenAI model solved some of the most important open problems in computer science, math, and theoretical physics, and no one even batted an eyebrow because that sort of triumph is becoming increasingly commonplace. One of those solutions was a proof that the Standard Model of Particle Physics could be mathematically well-defined — a problem that human theorists had so far been unable to tackle.
Not all research relies equally on theory, but understanding novel experimental results almost always involves some important component of either mathematical or spatial reasoning. That part of the task has now been made much, much faster. And on top of that, science is now open to a greater number of humans who aren’t naturally good at theorizing.
Much of the work of human scientists involves reading and understanding endless amounts of papers and going to endless conferences and seminars. The purpose of that work is to understand the existing scientific literature. Understanding the literature allows scientists to do the following things:
Come up with new ideas for hypotheses to test
Avoid doing research that someone else has already done
Synthesize approaches from different areas or fields
AI can reduce this effort to almost zero. Consider this excerpt from OpenAI’s blog post about their new research into neurodegenerative disease:
The team divided the analysis among thousands of AI agents powered by GPT‑Rosalind, an approach we call distributed biological reasoning. The agents examined a whole-brain CRISPR atlas…a dataset showing how gene disruptions affect different types of cells across the mouse brain. Each agent investigated a gene disruption, analyzed cellular responses, searched scientific literature, and proposed explanations for the results. Their reports were combined into a reasoning atlas linking genes, cellular effects, relevant publications, and possible biological mechanisms.
The research team estimated that comparable human analysis and literature review, conducted one perturbation at a time, would take months to a year. The agents reproduced findings from human analyses while uncovering additional leads. Their assessments of novelty and scientific value also aligned with judgments from blinded human experts. These findings help prioritize further experiments needed to test the proposed biological mechanisms.
Some of these insights point to new leads for understanding brain disease. [emphasis mine]
This is one case in which parallel work by a large number of agents really does make a huge difference:
Not only does instantaneous literature review vastly speed up the research process, but it allows AI to make novel conceptual leaps from combining approaches from wildly different fields of research. AI regularly does this in math research, combining results, approaches, and theorems from far-flung places that no human mathematician would have thought to combine.
It can do it in science, too. Much of scientific innovation, historically, has been “recombinant” innovation — scientists applying insights from one field to another. With AI, essentially all research is now cross-disciplinary — AI can read not just the literature on a particular subject, but the literature on a million other subjects that might have produced useful techniques or insights for the problem at hand.
So far, all of the factors I’ve listed are ways that AI can speed up science as it’s already done. I’ve basically described how AI can send gigantic hordes of superhumanly fast, superhumanly well-read, superhumanly mathematically gifted researchers to re-accelerate scientific discovery.
But it’s also possible that AI will enable types of discovery — and ways of understanding the natural world — that no network of humans, no matter how large or how brilliant it was or how long it had to work, would ever be able to discover. In a post back in July, I wrote about how that might work:
What if there are lots of…aspects of the Universe that [are] too complex to understand in terms of simple laws, but not so complex that they just dissolve into unknowable chaos? It’s possible that we can reliably control these complex phenomena with AI, even if we never reduce them to the kind of principles that we can teach a grad student in a textbook…
Another way of saying this is that there may be laws of the universe that humans can’t understand but AI can. I call these “cloud laws” — causal regularities that can be exploited by technology, but which are too diffuse and complex for an individual human being to either intuit or communicate…
Perhaps social sciences like economics, sociology, and political science obey similarly complex regularities, and AI can help us find them. Perhaps there are physical processes — plasma, or topological materials, or aerial turbulence, etc. — that obey cloud laws instead of chaos?…
[H]uman collaboration is bottlenecked — it’s limited by our ability to intuit patterns at an individual level, and to communicate these patterns from one individual to another. AI, being a computer, just doesn’t have this sort of limitation; it can work with vast, diffuse patterns without having to break them into pieces or simplify them in order to compress them into the tiny pipelines of person-to-person explanation…
If much of the Universe turns out to be ruled by cloud laws, we could be on the precipice of a scientific renaissance.
In order to discover cloud laws, AI will need huge amounts of data about the natural world. AI figured out human speech by assimilating essentially all of the text humans have ever written. If it’s going to figure out hidden patterns in biology, neuroscience, materials science, etc., it’s going to need similarly massive amounts of data from physical instruments.
That data will be far, far more than humans — individually or collectively — would be able to parse, label, characterize, or model. But AI was built to do this. If scientists simply build huge arrays of sensors to measure complex phenomena like the brain, the cell, the economy, etc., they may be able to feed this flood of data to AI directly and bypass human cognitive intermediation entirely. AI would then learn about the world directly, and it might learn things that humans never could.
This “superscience”, if you want to call it that, would actually go beyond the kind of science humans have done heretofore. Many of the technologies it yielded would be beyond human comprehension — indistinguishable from magic. But to the AIs, they would make perfect scientific sense.
In any case, it seems clear that the scientific slowdown that threatened human progress will now be delayed — at least for a while. Unless humans have somehow found most of the actual exploitable regularities in our Universe, we’re about to enter a new golden age of science.
For nearly a quarter of a century, Elon Musk and his essential partner at SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell, viewed the United States government as El Dorado, the mythical city of gold.
Like machete-wielding treasure hunters, Musk and Shotwell hacked through a tangled jungle filled with lurking carnivores such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, as well as bean counters and regulators. Over time, against long odds, the pair cleared a path for SpaceX to contracts at NASA and the US military. They sued when things did not go their way. They hollered about unfair playing fields. Most importantly, they delivered quality space products to the US government for less.
And so, after a while, SpaceX found El Dorado and a city of contracts.
NASA astronaut Anil Menon and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk are performing a spacewalk to install the 7th of 8 ISS Roll-Out Solar Arrays (iROSA) to upgrade the orbiting outpost's power system.
NASA astronaut Anil Menon and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk are awaiting the start of today’s spacewalk. They are buttoned up inside what NASA calls Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs), better known as space suits.
The crew is running slightly ahead of the timeline according to NASA commentator Rob Navias. The spacewalk is due to get underway at about 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) but first the spacesuits will be fitted with SAFER units, jet back packs that will be used in the unlikely event a crew member becomes untethered from the space station. They will then move into the crew lock portion of the Quest airlock for depressurization.
The Simplified Aid For EVA Rescue (SAFER), a small, self-contained jet pack, is now being fitted to Anil Menon’s space suit.
Menon has now moved into the outer Crew Lock portion of the Quest Airlock. He can be easily identified by the red stripes on his space suit, indicating he is designated EV1 for this excursion. This will be his fourth spacewalk since arriving at the space station aboard a Russian Soyuz craft in July.
Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk is now being fitted with his SAFER back pack.
Kutryk, who will be referred to as EV2 by Mission Control, has now joined Menon inside the Crew Lock section of Quest. Next up will be closure of the hatch.
The hatch between Equipment Lock and Crew Lock sections of the airlock is now being closed ahead of depressurization of the outer compartment.
Meanwhile at the Kennedy Space Center, the Pegasus barge is departing for the Stennis Space Center. It’s carrying a New Glenn second stage for test firing at the Mississippi facility.
The airlock depressurization is underway. Pressure in the compartment will initially drop to 5 psi where it will be held for space suit checks before being lowered to a vacuum.
Airlock pressure now 9 psi.
Space suit leak checks underway as the pressure in the airlock has reached 5 psi.
Leak checks are reported good and depressurization to vacuum will now continue.
Now 4 psi in the airlock.
Approaching 2 psi now.
Astronaut Nichole Ayers in Mission Control has taken over from the station crew in communicating instructions to the spacewalkers. She is designated Spacewalk Communicator for this excursion. Astronaut Jenni Gibbons is the CAPCOM in mission control, an acronym from the early days of the space program standing for Capsule Communicator.
Pressure inside the Crew Lock section of the Quest airlock is approaching vacuum.
The airlock has reached vacuum and the spacewalkers are starting to open the outer hatch.
The hatch is now open.
The astronauts space suits are now on internal battery power. NASA considers this the start of the spacewalk. The official start time was 7:57 a.m. EDT (1157 UTC), according to Mission Control commentator Rob Navias.
“The night is dark and full of wonder,” said Menon as he opened the thermal cover that protects the airlock hatch. He will be first to leave the airlock.
Menon is now outside the airlock. This spacewalk is expected to last about seven hours.
Joshua Kutryk has also left the airlock. He has now become the fifth Canadian astronaut to make a spacewalk.
Previous Canadian spacewalkers (with the date of their first spacewalk) were: Chris Hadfield (STS-100, April 2001), Steve MacLean (STS-115, September 2006), Dave Williams (STS-118, August 2007), and David Saint-Jacques (Expedition 59, April 8, 2019).
Menon and Kutryk have made their way down the space station truss to the location of the pallet holding the International Space Station Roll-Out Solar Array (IROSA) that they will be installing today.
The two spacewalkers are working to release a series of bolts that hold the iROSA to its storage pallet.
The astronauts are using pistol grip tools to release the bolts holding the array.
Now an hour into today’s spacewalk.
Menon is now in a foot restraint, riding on the end of the Canadian robot arm, while Kutryk continues to work in the area of the iROSA pallet.
Final bolts are being released holding the ISS roll-out array in its carrier.
Menon is holding the new International Space Station Roll-Out Solar Array (IROSA) at the end of the robot arm after it was removed from the stowage pallet on the station’s truss.
Now more than two hours and 16 minutes since the start of today’s spacewalk, Menon is being moved on the end of the Canadarm-2 to begin aligning the IROSA with the bracket for power channel 2A.
Kutryk is translating along the station to position himself for installing the IROSA.
Now more 2.5 hours into the spacewalk, Ayers told Menon and Kutryk that when they’re working on the mod kit for the new IROSA that they shouldn’t make simultaneous or sudden movements.
The solar array has been soft-docked to the 2A electrical power channel.
The manual maneuver of the Canadarm-2 of about half a meter is complete, moving to Menon’s right. His spacesuit has the red stripe on his legs. Kutryk continues working on the IROSA mod kit. The ISS is about 10 minutes away from going into a night pass where they can start making the electrical connections on the IROSA. Navias says things have proceeded as expected so far on today’s spacewalk with no bolt issues.

Now more than three hours into the spacewalk Menon and Kutryk are working to release a hinge restraint on the IROSA. This will allow it to fully unfurl to its full length of about 60 feet. Menon is now being translated away from the IROSA.

Teams in Mission Control Center Houston are determining whether they will use this current night pass to begin hooking up the power cables first or to unroll the IROSA first. Navias says they are still running ahead of the timeline.
Kutryk and Menon are preparing to open the IROSA after engaging the soft capture. There are about 20 minutes remaining in the night pass. Menon says they should proceed with the power cable mating and Kutryk agrees.

Navias says if all of the power connections cannot be completed during this nighttime pass, Menon and Kutryk will pause and wait for the next one, since they don’t want to be interacting with them when power is flowing.
Both Menon and Kutryk are at their de-mate locations. They are working to complete the remaining power hookups during this night pass with Navias reiterating that they are running ahead of the clock.
A little more than 3.5 hours into the mission, Menon and Kutryk have mated three out of the four major power connectors for the IROSA. They will pause on this work for about an hour until they are fully in a night pass again. They are in a safe configuration to pause this work.
Navias says that there have been no issues experienced during this spacewalk as the ISS is currently in a day pass. The station is currently traveling at an altitude of nearly 428 km, passing over the North Pacific Ocean. Our new ISS tracker can show you the station’s position around the globe 24/7: https://spaceflightnow.com/tracker/
Now a little past the four-hour mark in today’s spacewalk, Navias says teams are running about an hour ahead of the original timeline. With three out of the four power connections attached, the fourth will be mated during the next night pass. Right now, Kutryk and Menon are cleaning up the work site as the space station passes over the South Pacific Ocean at an altitude of about 426 km.

Menon and Kutryk are in the midst of releasing the final two restraint bolts. Once the IROSA begins to unfurl, it will take about 10-12 minutes to fully extend. The space station is currently passing over the South Atlantic Ocean at an altitude of about 434 km.

The seventh IROSA is now unfurling. The process will take about 10-12 minutes.

The seventh IROSA has been unspooling for about seven minutes in front of the legacy solar arrays.

With the IROSA now fully extended, and the space station back in a night pass, Menon is preparing to attach the fourth and final main electrical connector. Navias says because they are running as far ahead on the timeline as they are, Menon and Kutryk may also get to some work-ahead items while they have time outside the space station today.

Menon is now driving two tension bolts, which will make the IROSA as taut as possible.
Some of the work-ahead items for Kutryk and Menon will include removing the booms that helped store the seventh IROSA. They may also get to some prep work for next Thursday’s spacewalk, per Navias.
Menon and Kutryk are cleaning up the work site at the P4 truss and are proceeding towards some work ahead items for next Thursday’s spacewalk.
As the 285th spacewalk continues, Kutryk and Menon are beside the eighth and final IROSA that they will install next Thursday. They are moving towards the flight support equipment where they will remove a couple of beams to make that upcoming EVA a bit easier.

Kutryk hands over one of the beams on the final pair of IROSAs to Menon as the space station passes over the South Atlantic Ocean.

Now a little more than six hours into the spacewalk, Kutryk and Menon will proceed towards releasing some of anti-rotation devices (ARDs), which are launch locks that are holding the final set of IROSAs in place and previously did the same for the set that the duo installed on the P4 truss earlier in the EVA.
Menon and Kutryk have returned to the airlock and are exchanging thankyous with their support teams in Mission Control. They have been given a go to close the outer hatch of the airlock.
Mission Control has timed the end of today’s spacewalk at 3:08 p.m. EDT (1908 UTC). A duration of 7 hours 11 mins.
The airlock depressurized and the inner hatch between the crew and equipment locks is now open.
The Simplified Aid For EVA Rescue (SAFER) jet packs have been removed from the space suits. Glove checks and photos will be taken to document any damage that might have occurred.
Menon’s helmet has now been removed.
Kutryk has also removed his helmet.
NASA commentator Rob Navias saying today’s spacewalk was “essentially flawless”.
Over seven hours and 11 minutes, the alternating darkness and sunshine of low Earth orbit set the pace as NASA astronaut Anil Menon and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk successfully installed and unfurled the seventh of eight new solar panels designed to power the outpost through its retirement in 2030. Read Houston Harwood’s full report.

Over seven hours and 11 minutes, the alternating darkness and sunshine of low Earth orbit set the pace as NASA astronaut Anil Menon and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk successfully installed and unfurled the seventh of eight new solar panels designed to power the outpost through its retirement in 2030.
“Night is dark and full of wonders,” one of the spacewalkers radioed after the hatch to the station’s airlock swung open.
Menon, 50, and Kutryk, 44, switched their spacesuits to battery power at 7:57 a.m. EDT and began repressurizing the Quest airlock at 3:08 p.m. EDT, ending the seven-hour, 11-minute outing. The pair finished the IROSA work far enough ahead of NASA’s planned timeline that they could tackle “get-ahead tasks,” including preparations for the final IROSA installation Nov. 5.
“The spacewalk was essentially flawless,” NASA Mission Control commentator Rob Navias said.
The extravehicular activity, or EVA in NASA parlance, was the 285th devoted to station assembly, maintenance and upgrades and was the first of two planned spacewalks to install the final pair of IROSAs. NASA says the eight arrays will raise the station’s available power from 160 kilowatts to about 215 kilowatts.
“Engineers and electrical officers here in Mission Control are happy with what they’re seeing from the new array, which will add 8 kilowatts to the overall power capability of the complex,” Navias said after the 60-foot solar panel unfurled from its rolled-up configuration over about 10 minutes.
Kutryk, making his first spacewalk after arriving on station Oct. 1 aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, became the fifth Canadian astronaut to walk in space and the first since David Saint-Jacques in 2019. It was Menon’s fourth spacewalk, bringing his total time spacewalking to 26 hours and 31 minutes, all of it logged since he arrived at the ISS aboard a Russian Soyuz in July.
The successful EVA brought NASA’s cumulative spacewalk time outside the station since assembly began in 1998 to 75 days, seven hours and 14 minutes, and brought 2026’s total number of spacewalks to eight.
Thursday’s operations got off to a quick start.
After Menon and Kutryk worked through a series of bolts to free the IROSA from the carrier it launched on, Menon locked his boots into a foot restraint affixed to the end of the station’s Canadian-built robotic arm, Canadarm2, and rode it, array in hand, out to the left, or port, side of the station’s main truss.
NASA astronauts Jessica Watkins and Luke Delaney piloted the arm from inside the station while Kutryk made his way to the installation site along the truss. Flight director Greg Whitney led the spacewalk from Mission Control in Houston.
By about three hours and 13 minutes into the spacewalk, the pair had the array installed at the P4 truss work site on a bracket astronauts previously installed during a March spacewalk. In all, Menon spent more than two hours anchored to the end of the station’s robotic arm before rejoining Kutryk on the truss.
Because the new array’s power cables can only be handled and hooked up to the station while it’s in Earth’s shadow, when none of the ISS’ solar panels are generating electricity, mission planners timed the cable work to coincide with orbital night.

During the first available nighttime pass — an entire eclipse earlier than planned, according to Mission Control — Menon and Kutryk connected three of the four main power connectors before the station slipped back into sunlight, where it would remain for about an hour.
That was no issue, as the spacewalkers were running “about an hour ahead of the timeline,” Navias said as the EVA neared the four-hour mark. At 12:20 p.m. EDT, Menon and Kutryk released the final restraints, and the IROSA began to unfurl — no motors required — thanks to energy stored in carbon-fiber composite booms.
Mission Control’s electrical engineers had already determined the array was safe to deploy with three of the power connectors mated, and Menon made the fourth and final connection during the next nighttime pass, after the array had unrolled.
During an Oct. 20 briefing at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Garrett Hehn, the flight director who will lead the Nov. 5 spacewalk, likened the IROSA panels to a snap bracelet that, once released, “just continues rolling out steadily.”
“All of the work has gone very much by the book today,” Navias said during the roughly 10 minutes it took the IROSA to unfurl. “So far, so good.”
The two final arrays arrived at the station rolled up and folded on a carrier in the unpressurized trunk of a SpaceX Cargo Dragon, which launched Oct. 13 atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Each weighs about 750 pounds folded, according to Hehn.

“Overall, these roll-out arrays increase our power generation capability up to 30 percent,” Gaurang Patel, operations integration manager for NASA’s Low Earth Orbit Program, said at the Oct. 20 briefing.
Space shuttles delivered the station’s eight original solar wings, designed to last 15 years, between 2000 and 2009. Rather than replace them outright, NASA opted to mount the smaller IROSAs in front of the old wings, partly shading them while the original panels’ exposed portions keep producing power. Each IROSA generates about 8 kilowatts of electricity, according to NASA.
The first IROSA unrolled on station in June 2021, though not without a fight: A spacesuit glitch and an array that wouldn’t unfold cleanly forced astronauts Shane Kimbrough and Thomas Pesquet to finish the job on a second spacewalk. NASA refined the installation process during successive spacewalks, and by 2023, six arrays were in place. That summer, NASA ordered an additional pair — the seventh and eighth.

Menon and Kutryk plan to venture back outside the Quest airlock Nov. 5 to install the eighth and final IROSA at the far right, or starboard, end of the station’s main truss, beyond the reach of its robotic arm. Menon will again ride the arm as far as it will take him. To cover the last stretch, he and Kutryk will pass the array between foot restraints in a maneuver Hehn said the team “lovingly” calls “the leapfrog.”
“Everything today went almost better than could have been expected,” Navias concluded after Menon and Kutryk had returned to the station’s interior.
Safely inside the ISS, Menon reflected on what he called “an incredible milestone.”
“Well, being outside, I can say that it is always sunny in space, except for a few orbits,” Menon told Mission Control. “And it’s quite incredible what we’ve been able to do to provide new solar arrays to space station.”
In his first remarks after venturing into the vacuum of space for the first time, Kutryk was quick to thank Menon for “being a great spacewalking partner.”
“Been wonderful working with you,” Kutryk continued. “A very special thank you to our crewmates Jessica [Watkins] and Luke [Delaney]. Trusted them with our lives to get us in and out today … They did exactly that.”
United Launch Alliance announced Wednesday it plans to return its Vulcan rocket to service on November 13, nine months after a solid rocket booster anomaly threw the company's 2026 launch schedule into oblivion.
The return-to-flight mission will launch 40 satellites for the Amazon Leo broadband constellation, the first of 38 Vulcan flights Amazon has booked to deploy the bulk of its network. The mission will lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, and ULA said the launch date is pending range approval.
The launch is critical for ULA after its new flagship rocket suffered nozzle failures on its solid rocket boosters on two of its first four missions, most recently during a flight in February. In both cases, the rocket overcame the nozzle failure and completed its mission, but officials at the US Space Force, ULA's primary customer, lost confidence in Vulcan.

In this episode, Mike Gruss speaks with Laura Crabtree, the CEO of Epsilon3, who is also a former SpaceX astronaut trainer. They talk about ways that space companies can organize […]
The post Advice for optimizing the space industry with Laura Crabtree appeared first on SpaceNews.
Links for you. Science:
When Texas Bat “Cities” Look Like Thunderstorms
Emergence and local dissemination of NDM-14-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae ST147: a phylodynamic and epidemiological investigation
Health Research Agency Director Goes on Administrative Leave
Expanding threat of carbapenemase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae in Peru: genomic and phenotypic evidence of high-risk clones dissemination
Rearrangement of chromosome spatial organization in mouse zygotes using optical tweezers does not affect preimplantation development
Neisseria gonorrhoeae: a historical model for host adaptation
Landmark study finds three in four NFL players die with CTE
Other:
The Right Hates Indian Americans. It Might Cost Republicans Texas.
Brazilian judge orders investigation into JD Vance donor network
Republicans Made This Florida District Red. Their Candidate May Keep It Blue.
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More women have accused Donald Trump of rape than have seen him in a Cheesecake Factory
The Cheesecake Factory aesthetic won’t save MAGA
The president admits he’s censoring the free press. That’s why I’m suing him.
As the Hard Right Fears Historic Defeat, Armed Settler Convoys in Tel Aviv Carry a Message
Marissa Mayer Can’t Keep Pretending ‘Gender Doesn’t Matter’
A Jewish or a Democratic State? This week’s election results arguably force Israel to choose
Macmillan Staff Say the Publisher Threw a Party for a Workplace AI Assistant That Was Later Killed
HHS moves to allow compounding of some unapproved peptides
House Progressives Throw Down a Marker: No AI Bailouts
Massive Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers—Including Undercover ICE Agents
The Limits of Trump’s Midterm Trickery
Manifestos, Fear, and ‘Loser Thinking’: Inside Proton’s AI Reckoning. Proton CEO Andy Yen projects a calm persona and rails against Big Tech and critiques AI. Internally, he is pushing engineers to build Proton with AI, even when they have security concerns.
Dolores Huerta, influential labor leader, feminist and civil rights icon, dies at 96
Senators Demand Meta Answer for ‘Pervert Glasses’ Following 404 Media Investigation
‘Pitch Perfect!’ Critics Delight as Obama Mocks Trump’s Cheesecake Factory Joke ‘Tantrum’
Beavers chew down sign warning walkers about beavers in Poland
Nvidia Chief Seen as Target of Chinese Spy Plot
Oshkosh teacher, former ‘employee of the year,’ detained by ICE
Trump hypes New York Times hack job about Alaska Senate race
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Can you understand English’s closest relatives?
A Pay Bump for D.C.’s Next Mayor? Janeese Lewis George Says No.
The real threat on D.C. streets isn’t e-scooters — it’s cars
Tesla, SpaceX and PepsiCo: Jeanine Pirro Made 140 Financial Trades Since April
Apple Unveils Its First Touch-Screen Laptop Computer
Lessons From Lula’s Historic Victory
The ultra-wealthy, especially those in the tech industry, are beginning to get the impression that we don’t like them. As they gaze at another glorious sunset from their private islands and Big Sur mansions while dozens of staff whose names they don’t know flitter about them satisfying their every need, their group chat of CEOs lights up with another poll showing resistance to data centers and worries about A.I. They shake their head and ask themselves, “What is wrong with those troglodytes? Was it not enough that we gave them all this great technology? Don’t they realize that my brilliant friends and I are dragging their sorry asses to utopia?”
Faced with this problem, they are coming up with a variety of new ideas to show the unruly masses how benevolent the economic ruling class is. Elon Musk says he’ll give every child a share in SpaceX — worth a whopping $150 if he actually follows through, which he probably won’t. Anthropic is creating a “public benefit fund” with 5% of the company’s value; it’s also preparing for an IPO that will make many of its executives into multibillionaires.
Michael Dell donated billions to fund “Trump Accounts,” which give $1000 to babies born in Trump’s second term. Tech investor Brad Gerstner told the Wall Street Journal he believes that this kind of largesse is the perfect answer to social unrest:
“We’re watching France burn because people feel left out and left behind,” he said.
“The antidote to that is to make everybody an owner,” he added on Thursday morning, after visiting a school in the Bronx where he and a friend had donated $250 into the accounts of 3,000 students.
Ah yes, the feeling of being an owner, doled out a few hundred bucks at a time by our billionaire betters. Is that going to do the trick?
No, it is not. So I have another idea for something the ultra-wealthy could do, one weird trick that could not only pay for worthwhile projects but also begin to address the widespread loathing the public has for them. Are you ready? Here it is:
PAY
YOUR
DAMN
TAXES.
Mind-blowing, I know. But believe it or not, we already have a system in which people give some of their money to an organization tasked with figuring out how to spend it on important collective and individual needs. That system doesn’t always work efficiently, but it does incorporate democratic accountability, giving everyone at least the theoretical opportunity to have a voice in how the money gets prioritized.
Unfortunately, we already know that our current crop of tech oligarchs share an unwillingness to pay taxes with every generation of plutocrats that preceded them. Just look at what’s happening right now with the initiative on the California ballot for a one-time 5% tax on billionaires, which has them absolutely losing their minds in rage. Some of America’s richest nerds have teamed up to kill it, to the tune of at least $333 million. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has spent over $100 million just by himself; the group has not only blanketed the state with ads attacking the initiative, they funded a competing initiative on the ballot that would nullify the tax.
The initiative might not be the most efficient revenue enhancement policy ever devised; for one thing, it’s a one-time tax rather than an ongoing policy change. And there’s a healthy debate about whether wealth taxes are effective at all. But set the merits of the policy aside. If it passes, the lives of the billionaires now panicking about it will not be altered by even a single iota.
Sergey Brin will not have to cancel his family vacation next year. Marc Andreessen will not have to fly commercial to Jackson Hole next weekend. Mark Zuckerberg will not have to lay off some of the hundreds of household staff he employs at his Palo Alto compound and his Lake Tahoe manor and his Washington DC mansion and his Hawaiian estate and his Irish castle and wherever else he lives.
Should it pass, this tax will leave Zuck with a mere $200 billion with which to eke out an existence. Fortunately, he found a way to protect himself from the insult it represents: At his insistence, Meta’s board just created a special class of stock it gave to him so he could use it to pay his tax bill if the initiative passes. Phew!
As I’ve noted before, these guys gain and lose 5% of their wealth in a single week on the stock market all the time, or sometimes even in a single day, yet that doesn’t seem to bother them, while paying the same amount in taxes sends them into paroxysms of rage. Whether you think this wealth tax is a good or bad idea, it’s nothing to them — and yet they’re fighting it as though their very lives are at stake. Which shows us how they’re going to react to any effort to tax them.
The status quo is that most of America’s richest pay only a tiny proportion of their income in taxes, not only because they employ armies of lawyers and accountants to minimize their liability, but because the tax code was written by and for people like them. As ProPublica found a few years ago when it was leaked a trove of files from the IRS, between 2014 and 2018, the 25 richest Americans paid only 3.4% of their income in federal taxes. Many paid less; in some years, Jeff Bezos paid precisely zero in income taxes.
This is the context in which we have to understand what they’re saying about the future they themselves are working to create, one in which A.I. could eliminate millions or even tens of millions of jobs. When you ask them how we as a society will handle that, they gravitate toward universal basic income (UBI); as Zuckerberg has said, “We should explore ideas like universal basic income to make sure everyone has a cushion to try new ideas.”
Sam Altman of OpenAI was a UBI booster and even gave millions of dollars to organizations studying it, but now says he no longer thinks it’s viable: “I think just like a fixed cash payment, although useful and maybe a good idea in some ways, does not get at what we’re really going to need for this next phase and the kind of collective alignment of shared upside as the balance between labor and capital shifts.” Now he says, and I’m not kidding about this, that the answer to a Great Depression-scale dislocation is to give people compute, i.e. a certain number of A.I. tokens you can use to ask ChatGPT how to feed your family.
I suspect what Sam and his big brain may have realized is that if we’re going to have a UBI system, it would have to be run through the government, and the only way to pay for it would be, that’s right, taxes. And if A.I. really is as spectacularly profitable as companies like his are counting on, guess where all that wealth is going to flow: to the tech oligarchs! Which means that if we want to create a UBI system, the trillions it will cost are going to have to come from the people with all the money. And guess who that is.
So now they’re trying to come up with some alternate model, and like Brad Gerstner and Michael Dell, they want us all to be owners, which is something very different from being citizens.
That’s one path we could go down. Or — and stay with me here — we could create a good education system, affordable health care, a clean environment, public transportation, well-kept public spaces — you know, the things that actually make life worthwhile.
I’m guessing that the last time you went to a public park — to take a walk, play tennis or basketball, bring your kids to the playground — you didn’t find yourself saying “This is okay I guess, but I just don’t have that feeling of ownership.” Unless you’re psychotic, and you think there’s no point to public goods.
Most of us do want public goods, and we want government to provide them. For that to happen, we need to pay for it, and since we’re all supposed to have a stake in society, we’re all supposed to contribute.
So we should tell the oligarchs that if they want us not to loathe them so much, there’s a lot they have to do, but it starts here: Just pay your damn taxes.
Convince us that you are citizens of this democracy, that you are not above the obligations the rest of us willingly submit to, and that you see the rest of us as something more than a resource to be mined to make you ever wealthier. That won’t solve all the problems we have with you. But it’ll be a place to start.
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I use LLMs to forecast treatment effects of research studies pre-registered on the AEA RCT Registry and the Open Science Framework. I focus on studies whose results were first publicly released in 2026 and elicit forecasts from models whose training or knowledge cut-off dates were before the relevant set of papers was released. First, LLM models extract forecasting questions from the pre-registrations or pre-analysis plans. These questions elicit forecasted treatment effects; not all resolve in the subsequent papers, but those that do can be used to consider forecast accuracy. Forecasts were elicited for 889 treatment effects from 39 papers with results disclosed in January 2026 or later, or 673 from 33 papers after screening. Forecasts were elicited in raw units but I focus on those that could be standardized and therefore compared across papers. Currently, the median absolute forecast error is 0.054 SD for the best model, the average absolute error is 0.093 SD, and the MSE is 0.0218. The AI forecasts perform substantially better than benchmarks forecasting 0 effect or forecasting the mean effect of other papers’ results in that time period. Overall, these results suggest considerable scope for forecasts to be of value in informing policy and research.
From the excellent Eva Vivalt. As I have been predicting, so much of economics (and science) is going to change, and radically. Here is Eva’s thread on the paper. Perhaps we should dispense with many of the more mundane inquiries, and as Eva notes: “But can we not shift to working on those projects that have particularly high uncertainty and upside potential?”
She is one of the best young economists in the world, and this stands some chance of being the most important paper of the year.
The post Can Artificial Intelligence Forecast Treatment Effects in Economics? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Brewers - 010 012 000 - 4 8 2
Rays - 000 000 001 - 1 4 0
The Milwaukee Brewers won their first World Series title Wednesday night by once again dominating the Tampa Bay Rays. Jacob Misiorowski (5.2-2-0-1-2, 86) and the stingy Brewers bullpen limited the Rays to two singles through 8.1 innings in Game 5. It was the bottom of Milwaukee's lineup that powered the offense in a 4-1 victory.
Misiorowski never allowed the Rays to even imagine a vision of a rally before being forced out of the game in the sixth inning because of a leg cramp. JoJo Romero and Abner Uribe continued the shutout pitching, as did Trevor Megill in the eighth. The corpse of the Rays made one final gasp – two doubles in the ninth saved them from a shutout, a repeat of their brief flash of life in the Game 3 blowout – before expiring for good.
The bottom five hitters went 6-for-17, knocking in three of the four runs. By contrast, the top four Brewers were 2-for-15.
William Contreras was named Most Valuable Player of the World Series. He caught every inning of the postseason and was rock solid behind the plate; he doubled in a run and scored in the sixth, as Milwaukee iced the game with two runs. Contreras went 8-for-21 in the series (.381) and drove in four runs. In the three playoff rounds, he hit .373 (19-for-51). Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras, William's older brother, was at the game. They are the 10th pair of brothers to have both played for a World Series winner; Willson played for the 2016 Cubs.
When Commissioner Rob Manfred presented the "Piece of Metal" to the Brewers, he was booed by the remaining fans at the Trop.
An unrecognized benefit of living in Canada: I was spared the hectoring voice of The Man Who Never Shuts His Yap who smoltzplained to Fox viewers earlier in the series that Contreras was a very bad man for challenging so many incorrect calls. Let the plate umpire blow some calls in peace, the close-minded Smoltz insisted. He faulted Contreras for challening a call with Milwaukee up 2-0 in the third inning. A two-run lead in the THIRD inning of a fuckin World Series game?!? What an absolute clown. A substantial social media backlash apparently forced Smoltz, a far-right conservative who has compared same-sex marriage to marrying animals, to "rethink" his position.
Contreras challenged 13 questionable calls during the World Series and had 10 of them overturned (77%). In the NLCS, he was 8-for-11 (73%), and was 5-for-11 in the NLDS. Overall, Contreras had the blown call corrected in 23 of 35 challenges (66%).
The Brewers had perhaps four other players who had an MVP-like series:
Jackson Chourio: 11-24 (.458), 1.000 OPS; tied Babe Ruth for the most hits (10) in the first four games of a WS.
Cooper Pratt: 8-for-19 (.421/.455/.684), 7 RBI, 1.139 OPS. Six straight hits in Games 4-5 set a WS record for a rookie.
Misiorowski: 10.2 innings, 1 run allowed; 5.2 scoreless innings in clinching Game 5.
Aaron Ashby: Pitched a postseason record 18 scoreless innings (nine games), including 5.2 shutout innings in three WS games.
Ashby and Uribe combined for 11 scoreless WS innings. The quartet of Ashby, Uribe, Romero, and DL Hall combined for 17 shutout innings against the Rays, allowing only six hits and one walk, while striking out 17.
The basic batting and pitching stats for both teams show stark differences.
AVG OBP SLG OPS 1B 2B 3B HR TB SB
Brewers .280 .350 .396 .745 37 10 1 3 72 9-for-11
Rays .182 .224 .242 .467 22 14 0 1 40 5-for- 9
IP H R BB K ERA WHIP
Brewers 47 30 12 7 40 1.91 0.787
Rays 46 51 25 17 39 4.89 1.478
The Brewers asserted themselves in the second inning against Drew Rasmussen (4-2-1-0-4, 48). Brice Turang drove a 1-1 changeup to the opposite field (left-center) for a double. Sal Frelick was hit with an 0-1 pitch on his left (back) arm, which seemed to bother him for several innings afterward. Cooper Pratt, who hit safely in his final four at-bats in Game 4, wasted no time in cracking the first-pitch into right-center. Turang scored, Frelick went to third, and Pratt, perhaps thinking the throw from the outfield was going to go through to third, was halfway to second when he realized the throw had been cut off. He was out in an 8-5-4-3-6 rundown.
For the 2026 postseason, teams that scored 4+ runs were 27-5.
The Brewers finished the three rounds of playoffs with an 11-2 record, nine of those games coming against the two-time defending champions (who won 102 games, one fewer than Milwaukee) and the American league leaderin wins (94). Most impressive was the fact that the Brewers trailed in x games and won x of them, including all four NLCS games and WS Game 2.
Misiorowski gave up a hard opposite-field single to Junior Caminero with two down in the first. He retired the next six Rays before walking Yandy Diaz in the third, again with two outs. In the fourth, Liam Hicks stood still while his back/left foot was hit by a low inside pitch.
Batters must make an effort to avoid getting hit by a pitched ball. If they do not, they should be denied first base – but that rule is never enforced. I'd love to see a pitcher argue and actually cite the rule to the umpire, in effect daring him to admit he's not following the rules of the game, but his batting teammates want free bases from HBPs, too, so we're unlikely to witness such a scene.
The rule in question is Rule 5.05 (When the Batter Becomes a Runner) (my emphasis):
(b) The batter becomes a runner and is entitled to first base without liability to be put out (provided he advances to and touches first base) when: . . .
(2) He is touched by a pitched ball which he is not attempting to hit unless (A) The ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, or (B) The batter makes no attempt to avoid being touched by the ball;
If the ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a strike, whether or not the batter tries to avoid the ball. If the ball is outside the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a ball if he makes no attempt to avoid being touched.
APPROVED RULING: When the batter is touched by a pitched ball which does not entitle him to first base, the ball is dead and no runner may advance.
Misiorowski got his first strikeout of the game on his 11th out, when he fanned DeLuca. Chandler Simpson lined a hard grounder past first and towards the right field corner. Frelick bobbled the ball for an error, putting Rays on second and third. Ben Williamson, the hero of Tampa Bay's 12th inning, game-winning rally in Game 4, chopped a ball to third. David Hamilton gloved it on the run but fired high to first. Jake Bauers stretched about as far as he could while keeping his foot on the bag and backhanded the near-errant throw while stradling the foul line.
Rays manager Kevin Cash was satisfied with four innings from Rasmussen and opted for his bullpen in the fifth. Rasmussen had thrown only 48 pitches and allowed one run, so I was surprised with what seemed like a quick hook of a pitcher doing his job in a must-win game (and who had been talked about only two weeks before as an underappreciated ace). I couldn't help remembering Cash inexplicably pulling a dominant Blake Snell in a must-win Game 6 against the Dodgers in the 2020 World Series. Snell had allowed only one hit through five innings, with nine strikeouts (including five of the first six Dodgers), and the Rays led 1-0. When Snell gave up a second hit (after retiring 10 in a row) with one out in the sixth, on his 73rd pitch, Cash immediately went to reliever Nick Anderson. Within eight pitches, the Dodgers had scored two runs; they became World Champs that night, thanks to a 3-1 win.
And so Kevin Kelly stood on the mound, facing the bottom of the Brewers' order. He got one out, but Pratt lined a single to left – his sixth straight hit – and Garrett Mitchell sliced an opposite field single to left, putting runners at first and third. The Rays brought the infield in, which backfired when Hamilton shot a 1-1 pitch past second baseman Williamson, who dove to his right. Pratt scored and it was 2-0. In the span of only four batters, Kelly had given up more hits than Rasmussen had in 14 batters. Kelly got Jackson Chourio looking at strike three and then he was gone. Garrett Cleavinger ended the inning by fanning Bauers on an 80 mph sweeper.
An inning later, Cleavinger's first pitch in the sixth plunked Christian Yelich in the thigh. Contreras lined a double to the left field wall, increasing the lead to 3-0. Turang dumped a single near the line in left as Simpson appeared to pull up at the last moment and watch the ball drop. Contreras, thinking the ball might be caught by the speedy left fielder, stopped at third. And that was it for Cleavinger. He and Kelly had faced nine batters; six of them reached base and three of them would eventually score. Tyler Wells struck out Frelick before Pratt hit a long foul ball that right fielder Ryan Vilade caught on one of the bullpen mounds. Contreras tagged and scored; Turang had stolen second and he went to third. When Wells walked Mitchell, he was pulled for Stephen Matz, who got the final out, stranding two runners. Cash, after deciding Rasmussen had been pushed to his limit after 12 outs, needed four relief pitchers to get the next six outs.
That was it for the Milwaukee bats for the night. Unfortunately for the Rays, their bats remained equally quiet.
With two outs in the bottom of the sixth, Misiorowski's first pitch to Hicks was fouled off – and there was something wrong with the Brewers' ace. The trainer came out and soon a whole gaggle of players were gathered on the mound. Misiorowski had a cramp in his right leg. After a drink of water and some chit-chat, he prepared to throw a practice pitch. He spent several seconds trying to properly set his right leg and foot into position, which did not bode well. Afer the pitch, he knew he couldn't continue. Clearly disappointed, he walked off the field to loud cheers from the sizeable population of Brewers fans in the stands. JoJo Romero needed but one pitch to get Hicks to ground to shortstop.
In the seventh, DeLuca struck out looking before Simpson hit a little dribbler in front of the plate. Contreras pounced on the ball but threw wildly to first for a two-base error. Uribe took over, his 11th appearance over 13 postseason games. He faced two pinch-hitters. Richie Palacois grounded out to first, with Uribe covering and Victor Mesa ended a nine-pitch battle by grounding to Turang at second.
Trevor Megill was in for the eighth and he set down the Rays in order on 10 pitches. Trevor Walls lined out to left (Chourio made a nice diving catch near the foul line), Diaz flied to the base of the wall in deep right, and Aranda could not check his swing on a high 1-2 fastball.
Ashby was assumed to be pitching the ninth, but it was Megill for a second inning. He got ahead of Caminero 0-2, threw a pitch in the dirt, and watched Caminero check his swing on ball 2. After fouling off a pitch, Caminero was frozen on a fastball just off the middle of the plate for strike three. Hicks got a double when his hard grounder hit the first base bag and caromed away from Bauers and into foul territory, where Frelick chased it down. DeLuca fouled off a low pitch, swing and missed a fastball above the zone, then took a fastball high and outside, before whiffing on a knuckle-curve in the dirt for the second out.
Simpson turned on an inside 1-1 fastball and lined a double to right. Hicks scored. Palacios took a fastball (99) down the heart of the plate for a strike. He looked at a fastball (100) high and a knuckle-curve (91) in the dirt. Megill threw an inside fastball (99), which Palacios knocked towards second. Turang, who had been impressive for the entire series, ranging far to both his right and left, gloved the routine grounder and threw to first, igniting the Brewers' well-deserved celebration at 10:13 pm (Milwaukee Time).
I trust Ruth Wer ning, a Brewers fan who will celebrate her 105th birthday next month, stayed up to watch the final out. She lives in a Milwaukee suburb and threw out the first pitch before a game in 2024.
1. “A whopping 79 NBA players are listed on today’s 2:30 PM injury report for tonight’s games. That’s roughly 15% of the entire league” This is just week one people! And some commentary.
2. Video making the case that AI has been fine for jobs.
3. John Repetti reviews The Rouse at Jacobin.
4. Is TikTok now encouraging more optimistic content? (NYT) Big if true, I am not currently active on the platform and do not have an opinion on the matter. In any case worth a read.
5. Andy Masley recommends some lesser-known books.
6. New OpenAI dataset on how people use ChatGPT.
7. Piketty-Saez-Zucman biases found earlier by humans. And an audit from Grok on whether the initial AI report is capturing the major problems.
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The story of how Flávio Bolsonaro arrived in the United States was odd and is becoming odder. After losing the election to become Brazil’s president on Sunday, he suggested he would contest the results of the election, and Brazilian authorities asked him to give up his Brazilian passport because he is under investigation for laundering more than $1 billion through an online gambling scheme, and for financial irregularities involving a bank regulators shut down for fraud. And then he disappeared.
When he didn’t turn in his passport, authorities canceled it and barred Bolsonaro from leaving the country. Ana Ionova, Edward Wong, Alice Maciel, and Lucía Cholakian Herrera of the New York Times reported today that Bolsonaro, his wife, and his two daughters crossed from Brazil to Argentina in a van across a bridge between the two countries. In Argentina they boarded a plane owned by a private company used by Argentina’s president Javier Milei, an ally of Trump, and flew to Ecuador. In Ecuador they boarded another private jet for Miami.
A senior U.S. State Department official said the U.S. will issue visas for Bolsonaro and his family, allowing them to enter the country.
Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence after being convicted of launching a coup against the duly elected Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. On social media this afternoon, the younger Bolsonaro claimed he faced political prosecution in Brazil and declared himself the “legitimate president-elect” of Brazil, later changing that language to “leader of Brazil.” He claimed the legal investigation against him was a “witch hunt.”
Bolsonaro’s defeat strikes a blow at Trump’s evident plan to install right-wing leaders across Latin America as part of a move to create a U.S.-dominated Western Hemisphere. Evidently, Trump intends to shelter Bolsonaro in the U.S.
Yesterday Terrence McCoy, Marina Dias, and Isaac Arnsdorf of the Washington Post reported that a justice on the Brazilian Supreme Court ordered Brazilian police to investigate whether Rockbridge, a donor network co-founded by Vice President J.D. Vance, illegally helped to finance Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign.
The Rockbridge Network rejected the suggestion, saying: “The Brazilians made false representations about their relationship with Rockbridge and created documents representing or referencing Rockbridge without Rockbridge’s knowledge or consent.”
While Trump allies are supporting those who share their authoritarian vision of government abroad, MAGA is showing signs of collapsing at home.
In Status yesterday, Oliver Darcy reported a dramatic decline in the numbers of people watching the Fox News Channel. October’s numbers will be down 27% in total viewers and 32% in the age group between 25 and 54 since October of last year. In contrast, MS NOW and CNN are picking up viewers.
Brendan Rascius of The Independent reported that stores featuring Trump merchandise are shutting down around the country as interest in them flags. An owner of a Trump store told Rascius: “The store has kind of run its course.”
A sign of just how deep rejection of MAGA has reached in society was the October 19 article by New York Times chief fashion critic Vanessa Friedman offering advice to a man who wrote in, concerned that his Brioni suit made people think he was MAGA. “Do I need to be concerned that what I’m wearing is sending the wrong message about my political proclivities?” he asked. Friedman suggested a number of tweaks “to avoid being confused for a MAGA man,” including the possibility of “dress sneakers, which would give the whole look a more casual vibe than the one Team Trump usually conveys, which leans more toward New York in the 1980s.”
Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is running ads featuring Republicans crossing the aisle to vote for him rather than Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton. “I truly believe that he is the most corrupt politician Texas has ever seen,” Republican former Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley says in one that features five former Republican officials. “James Talarico is by far, without a doubt, the best person in the race for the U.S. Senate,” former Texas state representative Bennett Ratliff continues.
“I’m a lifelong Republican, and I know it’s hard to go in and vote for a Democrat,” Whitley says. “We need to support the best person, not look at their party label, not look at what jersey they’re wearing, but who is going to represent us,” Ratliff adds. The Republicans urge voters to back Talarico.
In South Carolina, two former governors—Democrat Jim Hodges and Republican David Beasley—cut an ad together to urge voters to support Democratic candidate Dr. Annie Andrews for the U.S. Senate rather than Republican candidate Darline Graham, the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s sister. “This country is too divided,” they say, “and the political rhetoric has gotten way, way out of hand.” Andrews “understands that leadership isn’t about making people angrier. Well, it’s about making things better. She’s willing to put people ahead of politics.” “South Carolina deserves more than the same political fighting,” they say, “so join the two of us in supporting Dr. Annie Andrews. Let’s send her to the United States Senate.”
In Alaska, Senator Lisa Murkowski has endorsed Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in the Alaska governor’s race. Saying that “[o]ur future is too important to be hamstrung by partisan divisions” and that Kreiss-Tomkins “understands that governing requires listening to people with different perspectives and finding common ground to solve the problems all of us face,” Murkowski urged “Alaskans of every political stripe” to consider voting for him.
Today Calder McHugh of Politico reported that OpenAI has created an “Election Operations Center” to identify misinformation and efforts to disrupt the upcoming midterm elections. McHugh writes that the company is trying to “position itself as a defender of the democratic process,” positioning that suggests it expects such a defense, rather than support for MAGA, will put it on the right side of politics in the future.
Katie Rogers of the New York Times reported tonight that the “increasingly unpredictable” president is isolated and angry and, as one official put it, “feasting on a media diet of fawning press coverage, disparaging clips about his perceived enemies, and helpings of flattering photos and ‘A.I. slop’” served up by a small group of loyalists. As Lisa Lerer of the New York Times noted on Tuesday, his multiple rallies in states that until recently have been reliably Republican underscore “Republicans’ growing alarm over a political map that leaves Democrats with multiple paths to Senate control.”
And, finally, it appears that authorities have found some voter fraud. Today, as Mark VanCleave and Rebecca Boone of the Associated Press reported, right-wing activists James O’Keefe and Cam Higby were charged with voting unlawfully and stealing an identity after they gave false names to poll workers in Minnesota during the state’s primary election.
The men say they were testing the “vouching” process available in the state that enables voters who lack proof of their current address to vote in a new precinct after another voter in that precinct vouches for them.
The process is rarely used, and poll workers reported the men, who posted a video to YouTube of their attempt to vote fraudulently. O’Keefe and Higby claimed they were simply exposing the “lunacy” of the system.
But it turns out the system worked, and they are now charged with a felony.
—
Notes:
https://barrysborderpoints.com/country-visits/brazil/tancredo-neves-bridge/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/world/americas/flavio-bolsonaro-us-miami-brazil-trump.html
https://www.status.news/p/fox-news-ratings-midterms-donald-trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/19/style/mens-suit-maga-brioni.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/us/politics/trump-midterms-white-house-mood.html
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/10/27/us/midterms-elections-trump
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/28/openai-election-war-room-interference-01137690
https://apnews.com/article/voucher-voting-election-sting-undercover-e32e80590b59ca50adbb6751092e7435
Bluesky:
iwillnotbesilenced.bsky.social/post/3myxcuwpbac2p
robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3myxcjzdo622o
bubba687.bsky.social/post/3mywxxa3iu227
jamiedupree.bsky.social/post/3myscccrojc2p
oliverdarcy.bsky.social/post/3myvldnpdzc2m
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Yet they do not. Which is a choice. On Tuesday, the NY Times ran a story about HHS Secretary Kennedy’s bigoted remarks about Arabs with the following headline:

What’s notable is they didn’t use a phrase like ‘bigotry-tinged’, they just, correctly, called it bigoted. What’s also notable is how the NY Times does not use this language to describe Trump’s speeches (or Vance’s), even though, nearly every day he utters the equivalent of blood libel against immigrants, not to mention other bigoted statements.
The NY Times probably won’t start using this word to describe Trump–and will never do so regarding Vance’s bigotry*–until Trump is weakened to the point where it doesn’t matter anymore.
*The NY Times and other Serious Institutions won’t want to seem like they’re putting their thumb on the scale for Vance if he’s running, even though they have no problem monstering Democrats for much smaller lapses in good behavior (or things that aren’t lapses at all).
From the Archives-written by ChatGPT.
Both became dramatically more confident in AI’s capabilities while remaining optimistic about its economic potential. Their differences concern how benefits arrive, how seriously to weight emerging dangers, and whether AI might possess consciousness. Cowen emphasizes institutions, bottlenecks, and geopolitical competition. Tabarrok emphasizes inexpensive intelligence, scientific discovery, and—especially in his later writing—concrete safety failures.
The dated passages below trace those changes across the public archive. Quotations are the authors’ own words, including excerpts from their columns; outside material they reproduce is identified separately.
Cowen’s early framework grew out of chess. On March 11, 2011, he observed that stronger computers required stronger human partners:
“The required education level — for the team’s ‘wage premium’ — is ratcheted up.”
His concern was already distributional: computers could increase productivity while changing which human skills commanded a premium. He also emphasized learning how to work with computers. What I learn from chess and computers.
Tabarrok’s April 12, 2016 argument was more explicitly reassuring:
“AI will be cheap and ownership will be widespread.”
He compared AI to an increase in the world’s supply of educated people: more intelligence produces useful ideas, and competition spreads the benefits to consumers. But his forecast of comprehensive substitution was cautious—AI becoming a perfect substitute for human intelligence could be “100 years or more” away. Will the proliferation of affordable AI decimate the middle class?
Neither position was absolute. Cowen warned in February 2017 that the Industrial Revolution involved decades of painful adjustment; historical progress did not guarantee quick wage gains. Tabarrok, in October 2019, praised the argument that mediocre automation could displace workers without creating enough additional wealth to compensate. See Cowen’s historical warning and Tabarrok’s Beware the Mediocre Robots!
Cowen was already optimistic about language models in July 2020. After publishing a skeptical reader’s assessment of GPT-3, he added:
“I remain bullish, but it is always worth considering other opinions.”
That attribution matters: the skeptical arguments in the post were the reader’s, not Cowen’s. The case against the import of GPT-3, July 23, 2020.
Tabarrok’s shift toward near-term transformative AI became unmistakable by March 2, 2023:
“I never expected to witness the birth of aliens.”
Later that month, he endorsed Microsoft researchers’ description of GPT-4 as exhibiting an incomplete form of general intelligence: “They are correct.” This is a substantial acceleration from his 2016 outlook, although perfect substitution for humans and early general intelligence are different thresholds. See AGI is Coming and Baby AGI is Here, March 24, 2023.
Cowen reached an especially explicit formulation on April 16, 2025, discussing o3:
“I think it is AGI, seriously.”
But he immediately separated capability from adoption:
“It still will take us a long time to use it properly.”
His growing enthusiasm about the technology did not imply an equally dramatic forecast for immediate economic growth. o3 and AGI, is April 16th AGI day?
On January 6, 2025, Tabarrok wrote:
“The intelligence revolution is going to be bigger, more impactful and more wrenching than the industrial revolution.”
This is his own concluding sentence, following a quotation from Sam Altman. The Intelligence Revolution.
Cowen’s February 23, 2025 response to rapid-takeoff expectations focused on a different constraint:
“Human bottlenecks become more important, the more productive is AI.”
Energy, regulation, organizational habits, and weak human collaborators can constrain the economic value of better models. He offered an explicitly tentative estimate of an additional half percentage point of annual growth—large when compounded, but far from an immediate economic explosion. Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow.
By September 3, 2026, Tabarrok was developing the distributional implications:
“A smaller share of a much larger economy can still mean more income for labor.”
He argued that even substantial displacement could leave aggregate labor income higher, or make compensation affordable. He explicitly acknowledged painful losses for particular workers. His high-growth calculations are scenarios, not forecasts. How Much Redistribution Will AI Require?
They also converge more than their rhetoric suggests. In May 2026, Cowen rejected mass unemployment while identifying transitional hiring problems. In August 2026, Tabarrok interpreted business-survey evidence as consistent with their shared position that AI had not yet broadly reduced employment. See Cowen, May 13, and Tabarrok, August 31.
Cowen stated his central position on November 19, 2023:
“I view AI as more likely to lower than to raise net existential risks.”
His reasoning was comparative: the world already faces serious dangers, and stronger science could improve our defenses. My summary views on AI existential risk.
Tabarrok’s later writing places more weight on specific vulnerabilities. On April 8, 2026, he described:
“the worrying combination that very powerful AI’s are very vulnerable.”
He was discussing cybersecurity capabilities alongside agents’ susceptibility to manipulation. AI Risks.
On September 17, 2026, he sharpened the institutional objection to assuming that beneficial science will automatically offset dangerous capabilities:
“But faster science does not automatically mean faster defense.”
This can be read as a qualification of Cowen’s earlier optimism: defensive discoveries must pass through institutions that may move slowly. It also applies Cowen’s own bottleneck logic to safety. Pandemic Preparation is AI Safety.
Cowen nevertheless supports safeguards. In August 2026, he proposed government-overseen, industry-led safety audits. In September, he opposed restrictions on recursive improvement as impractical to enforce internationally. His position is therefore selective regulation combined with continued development. See his August 27 proposal and September 22 critique.
On September 16, 2026, Tabarrok rejected the claim that executives’ safety warnings were merely marketing or regulatory capture:
“Amodei actually believes what he’s saying.”
He did not thereby establish that the warnings or proposed policies were correct. His argument concerned sincerity and incentives. What Regulatory Capture Actually Looks Like.
Cowen replied the next day:
“I agree with Alex that the standard model of regulatory capture does not apply here”
But he emphasized competition for power: each executive sincerely thinks their own company should win. For Cowen, that complicates treating their warnings as disinterested policy advice. They agree that concern is sincere; they differ over which incentives best explain behavior. The correct model of AI CEO behavior, September 17, 2026.
On March 17, 2025, Tabarrok’s What Did We Learn From Torturing Babies? drew a moral lesson from medicine’s historical dismissal of infant pain. He described how theories about immature brains allowed physicians to discount babies’ observable distress and perform procedures without adequate anesthesia. His warning explicitly extended to judgments about animals and AI:
“If we must err, let us err on the side of compassion.”
Tabarrok’s position is stronger than mere openness to AI consciousness: he argues for moral caution under uncertainty. The analogy does not establish that AI suffers. It challenges confidence that a theory ruling out suffering is sufficient grounds to disregard possible evidence of it.
On October 14, 2025, he went further in his own commentary following an essay by Jack Clark:
“these systems are becoming self-aware”
He distinguished self-awareness from sentience, while warning against confidently dismissing the latter. His link accompanying that warning points back to the infant-pain essay, making the connection explicit. We Turned the Light On—and the AI Looked Back.
Cowen’s position is much more categorical. On August 31, 2026, he wrote:
“I am very much opposed to the view that the AIs are sentient, or might be sentient.”
He treats AI sentience as a category error, although he accepts that human-like descriptions can sometimes help predict AI behavior. Anthropomorphizing AI?
The disagreement concerns both what AI might experience and how to act when we cannot confidently know. Tabarrok’s historical analogy places greater weight on the moral cost of mistakenly denying consciousness; Cowen expresses much greater confidence that sentience is the wrong category to apply. These are their philosophical assessments, not established findings about AI consciousness.
The post How Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok Have Changed Their Views on AI and Where They Disagree appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

A girl’s story of forced marriage reveals how the Soviet invasion of 1979 transformed life in Afghanistan
- by Aeon Video

Physics offered me a sense of order and purpose. But when life got messy I realised it had a much deeper insight to give
- by Zahaan Bharmal

This is the weekly, free edition of The Backchannel. If you’d like to receive the free edition of The Backchannel in your inbox, you can subscribe here.
Here’s a brief follow up on yesterday’s Israeli election now that the actual vote count and results are coming into view. We began with exit polls suggesting that the “change” bloc had secured slightly more seats than the Netanyahu bloc — 52 to 50 seats — with the two Arab parties getting a historically high 18 or 19 seats. Then the exits started to shift to the Netanyahu bloc and Likud officials were claiming he had been dramatically underestimated and would get upwards of 60 seat and perhaps even a majority. The actual results were lopsided in Netanyahu’s direction but as they’ve been counted they’ve trended down. Now with 86% of the vote counted it’s down to 53 seats Netanyahu bloc, 48 for the “change” bloc and 19 for the two Arab parties. If the trend continues, the Netanyahu bloc might fall one or two seats lower but I have no insight whether the votes that remain will continue that downward trend.
What we’re left with is the essential brokenness of democratic politics in Israel. If the count stays where it is right now, the Netanyahu bloc will have fallen from 68 to 53 seats. The opposition will have 67 seats to Netanyahu’s 53. But the narrative and perhaps the reality will be that Netanyahu “won.” In previous eras it wasn’t really accurate to say that the Arab parties were an opposition to the right-wing Netanyahu faction any more than they were to the left or centrist one. This election was different. There was historically high turnout among Arab citizens to protest and try to defeat Netanyahu’s government and even more specifically the convicted terrorist Ben-Gvir who Netanyahu’s bloc put in charge of domestic policing in the country. But Netanyahu is saying, in essence, no. The only legitimate government is one based on Jewish and Zionist parties. And it’s not clear the Jewish and Zionist opposition will be able to say no to that. And that’s where we are. (There’s a major difference between the two predominantly Arab parties which is key to how this plays out and I discussed that in this post yesterday.)
The “change” bloc and The Joint List (the larger and more clearly anti-Zionist predominantly Arab party) need to decide what they actually want out of this election.
My best guess is that this is all heading toward a second election sometime in the spring. And if that’s the case Netanyahu remains “caretaker” prime minister in the interim. In theory that should be a government that doesn’t take any major policy actions. But of course Netanyahu, being a Trump-like figure, won’t care about that. So if no one wins, Netanyahu wins — at least in the short run. If you look at Netanyahu’s “victory” speech last night it was clearly an election speech anticipating that second spring election and framing it explicitly around legitimacy solely coming from a coalition of Jewish/Zionist parties.
Netanyahu of course is a hyper-nationalist but even more an opportunist. Back in 2021, in a similar situation, he tried to bring the non-Zionist Arab Ra’am party into his coalition and failed. Ra’am joined the opposition and that was the basis of the brief non-Netanyahu government in 2021 and 2022.
The final piece in this puzzle of absurdity is that for all this hyper-exclusionist Zionism a cornerstone of the Netanyahu bloc isn’t even Zionist at all. It’s the ultra-orthodox “haredi” community (13% or 14% of the population) which doesn’t accept Zionism or even the state itself. (In the provisional numbers I noted above they have 14 of Netanyahu’s 54 seats.) Their tie to the Netanyahu or national bloc is that he is protecting and actually enshrining their special privileges which are evading universal conscription for army service and living on public subsidies. It’s a complicated question but absent those privileges or bribes it’s not obvious what their connection to the Netanyahu bloc would even be, though over the last 25 years or so its become increasingly ingrained in their political identity. And it has become a cornerstone position of the “change” bloc to remove or at least dramatically curtail those privileges.
How this absurd situation came about is a topic for another post. But the simple version is that they were ad hoc and contingent decisions made in the 1940s and 1950s when they made up a tiny percentage of the population and no one really cared. They generally joined whatever bloc was in power to preserve these privileges.
In any case, that’s basically where we are. The simple reality is that Israel isn’t really governable on a sustainable basis by anything but governments of the far right as long as the country’s Arab population remains outside the governing process. As Yair Golan, the head of The Democrats (the current rump incarnation of the historic Labor Party), put it on Twitter last night, “anyone who tries to erase the votes of Arab citizens is surrendering to Netanyahu and giving up on Israel.” As I explained in this post yesterday, one of the two predominantly Arab parties — Ra’am — very much wants to sit in a “change” government. The Joint List is explicitly anti-Zionist and at least historically has not wanted to sit in any Zionist government. So the democratic Zionist opposition and the Joint List have some big decisions to make, either in this election — with the coalition negotiations that follow — or the one in the spring or perhaps the one after that.
Joe Rossignol, MacRumors:
A teaser video shared by Apple CEO John Ternus today hints at a potential name for the rumored MacBook models with touch-enabled OLED displays: MacBook Studio. [...]
Apple is expected to show off the new MacBooks to selected tech reporters and content creators at an experience in Los Angeles at 10 a.m. Pacific Time today, and that is the home of Hollywood movie studios after all.
I went to bed last night thinking “MacBook Studio” was the best guess. I woke up this morning feeling like it was a name worth betting on. It just fits. There’s a Mac Studio desktop, Studio Display monitor, and Apple’s suite of pro software tools is named Creator Studio — and they just announced big updates to that yesterday. As I suggested yesterday, these should be a new MacBook line, not the new MacBook Pros.
If this is the name, Rossignol gets the Being Right Point for calling it.
(A bunch of readers chimed in to suggest “MacBook Touch”. That wouldn’t work for the same reasons that Apple didn’t even consider calling the Duo the “iPhone Fold”. Yes, they used “Touch” for the iPod Touch of yore, but (a) that was a different era, and (b) that was such a mediocre product name that most consumers referred to it by the wrong name, “iTouch”. Apple likes names that evoke a feeling, not that describe a specific feature of the product.)
Update: Welp, never mind.

Axios reports on a new private GOP poll conducted in the aftermath of Vivek Ramaswamy’s decision to run his ad questioning his opponent’s having been raped by her stepfather when she was 12. It shows Ramaswamy falling to 8 points behind Amy Acton compared to 2 points behind in a poll conducted by the same pollster a month ago. The poll found that 86% of respondents had heard of the ad and by a 2 to 1 margin those said the ad made them more likely to vote for Acton.
Ramaswamy has always been an especially Trumpy character in the sense of leaning — both in his actions and how he describes his actions — into transgressive verging on sociopathic behavior as a signifier of Republicanness or Trumpiness. Indeed, when he released this ad he said explicitly that he was sending a message that he was ready to break rules and conventions in the context of Ohio politics just as Trump had at the federal level. All of this comes under the headline of being, as the phrase goes, “extremely online” and shaped by the aesthetics, mores and instincts of online trolling.
That’s a remarkable and a remarkably frank expression of MAGA politics and aesthetics. The problem, however, is that Ramaswamy is not Donald Trump. What’s most notable about this episode is that lots of fellow Republicans appear to have warned him not to do this — not because of some subjective sense of decency but because it seemed so obviously self-destructive. I’ve thought from the beginning that this ad might not only backfire on Ramaswamy but possibly pull down the whole ticket. Ohio has very Trumpy demographics. It’s the kind of state where, if there’s going to be a GOP-underestimating polling error, you’d expect it to be particularly pronounced. Sherrod Brown — who, remember, is a semi-incumbent — has had a very steady if modest lead for months. He’s currently about three points ahead on average. So this ad, a performance of bad personhood, could end up making a difference in that race too.
We show that AI-generated article reviews are now better, by every measure we could construct, than reviews written by well-compensated human experts and judged to be of unusually high quality by journal editors and authors. We then discuss how this result may inform journal policy choices, with concerning downsides as well as potential paths to increase publication speed and quality; reduce adversarial interactions; improve the experience of editors, reviewers, authors, and readers; and advance science.
By Gary King and Steven Worthington, not even using what are now the very best models, rather based on Claude Opus 4.8. The details of the dominance, as outlined in the paper, are striking. It is not close.
On my Saez and Zucman post, I find it striking that some people are complaining all of a sudden. Yet I have been offering, citing, and linking to commentary on published papers for twenty-four years now (and every single day). Sometimes it might just be a casual offhand remark from me, whether positive or negative. Typically this is simply taken in stride. It is when you pull out the bazookas, and offer oodles of high-powered analytics, more astute than human referees, and combined with the ability to pursue follow-up inquiries, that people start getting worried. Model that.
You can pick at individual criticisms from the AIs all you want, but the most damning observation is that the errors go in the ideological direction of the authors 97% of the time. That is exactly what (the human) Phil Magness said years ago, based on an extensive canvassing of their work. Basically we already knew that was true, and the AIs confirmed the human estimate.
On our side, we have taken steps, most of all the new MR archive, to make AI analysis of our work easier. Soon you will be able to read on MR what the AIs think are our worst posts, respectively (Alex has prepared this).
In the meantime, I encourage the NSF, prize committees, universities, tenure committees, journals, and so on to do as many of their own AI-enabled audits as possible. So far the world is not jumping at this opportunity. You can model that too.
The post AI dominates human peer reviews appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

United Launch Alliance said its fledgling Vulcan rocket would return to flight Friday, November 13, after a nine-month grounding due problems with its solid rocket boosters.
This mission, carrying 40 satellites for Amazon’s Leo internet service, will be the fifth flight of Vulcan since it debuted in 2024 and will be the first time it has been fitted with six strap-on solid rocket boosters.
It was nozzle failures on the Northrop Grumman-built solid rockets that put Vulcan flights on hold earlier this year. The rocket’s second flight was marred by the disintegration of a nozzle on one of the two 63XL Graphite Epoxy Motors. United Launch Alliance thought it had put the problem behind it, but a similar nozzle failure afflicted one of the four boosters less than 30 seconds into Vulcan’s fourth flight in February 2026 on the USSF-87 mission. In both cases the methane-fueled first stage and hydrogen-fueled upper stage were able to compensate for the resulting reduced and asymmetric thrust and achieved the intended orbits.

An industry-government team comprising of ULA, Northrop Grumman, and the U.S. Space Force was convened to investigate the most recent incident. ULA didn’t provide any specific details about the findings of the investigation but said in a statement: “The integrated team has made great strides in improving our understanding of the solid rocket booster (SRB) anomaly that occurred on the previous Vulcan flight and have identified several potential contributors which have been mitigated through design and process improvements to the nozzle,”
“This upcoming launch will utilize the improved nozzle design, and additional testing and analysis will continue in parallel with the mission,” the company added. “By flying the improved design, ULA gains valuable flight data that validates these improvements and is the most beneficial path in support of all our customers.”
Earlier this year, Northrop Grumman performed a test firing of a 63XL motor as part of the effort to resolve the nozzle problem.
Spaceflight Now has asked the U.S. Space Force what work, if any, remains before the Vulcan rocket is cleared to fly national security payloads again. This article will be updated, if and when we receive a response.
The Vulcan Leo 1 mission will add to the nearly 400 Amazon Leo satellites currently on orbit. The satellites will be deployed from an adapter on the Centaur upper stage over the course of about half an hour.

The retail and tech giant has booked a total of 38 Vulcan launches as it works to assemble its internet-from-space constellation. Previous launches used Atlas 5, Ariane 6, and Falcon 9 vehicles. Amazon had hoped to use Vulcan earlier as it can launch more Leo satellites than any rocket other than Blue Origin’s New Glenn. The loss of the first New Glenn rocket slated to carry Leo satellites in a launch pad explosion in May was another setback to the rollout of the constellation, although the satellites were not attached for the ill-fated test fire.
Assembly of the Vulcan vehicle began on May 14 when the first stage booster was hoisted on to its launch platform inside ULA’s new Vertical Integration Facility, dubbed VIF-A, the ‘A’ standing for Amazon. That was followed four days later by stacking the first LEO-optimized Centaur upper stage onto the booster.
In August, teams rolled the integrated stack out to the pad at Space Launch Complex 41 (SLC-41) to conduct fueling tests. It was then returned to VIF-A where its six solid rocket boosters were recently installed.

The payload fairing containing the 40 Leo satellites departed Amazon’s satellite processing facility near the former shuttle landing strip for attachment to the rocket on Oct. 21.
Amazon said a second vehicle is already assembled for the Vulcan Leo 2 mission in ULA’s original Vertical Integration Facility.
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary:
Roman Mars has built one of podcasting’s great empires out of noticing things everyone else walks past. His show, 99% Invisible, has racked up over 500 million downloads telling stories about the unnoticed design choices that quietly shape how cities and objects work…
Tyler and Roman discuss street signs, why classic cars were so much more distinctive than today’s SUVs, Waymos, New Jersey jughandles, yellow streetlights, lane-stripe colors, why Houston keeps growing despite its lack of charm, whether any post-war American suburb is actually beautiful, the Chrysler Building’s rocky reception, brutalism done right and wrong, Central Park as an urban miracle, what Jane Jacobs got wrong, e-bike lanes, Tokyo’s bike-free transit model, the placelessness of global coffee shops, why the iPhone looks boring now, the ugliest country he’s visited, his love for Australia’s polymer notes, his soft spot for the dollar’s “locked in amber” weirdness, underground power lines, how to warn future civilizations about nuclear waste, why highway signs lie to you about speed limits, the principles of a great city flag, the Pocatello redesign saga, his own studio, why 99% Invisible works precisely because it’s audio-only, the most unusual habit behind his long productive career, and more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: Yes. One of my favorite topics, currency design. What’s your favorite currency in terms of how it looks?
MARS: Favorite? It’s like I love almost any of them with the US currency in dead last. I find things to love about them. I’ve done a story on Australian currency, which was one of the early polymer notes. I just like utility in currency. I like different sizes. I like different colors. I like the fact that they put on artists and people of note that are not founding fathers and presidents and stuff like this. I don’t know if I have a particular favorite, but I was entranced by the thoughtfulness and utility of Australian currency when I did a story about it. You could be blind and know what note you’re holding because of the size. They stand up pretty well, and they care about all kinds of things rather than just presidents and stuff.
COWEN: I loved Swiss currency pre-2021. They had Le Corbusier on, Giacometti, Honegger. In the 1980s, they had Euler on, the mathematician. Imagine putting Euler on your country’s currency.
MARS: That is a canvas that’s so available to us to represent more values than we have in the United States than just founding fathers and presidents and stuff. I think it’s just such a wasted opportunity.
COWEN: I like the dollar, though. I’m surprised you’re so negative. I like the weird esotericism: the eye, the pyramid. The design is bizarre. It announces to the world: “We’re crazy.”
MARS: There are things to love about it. I just think that its fussiness and filigree, we’re locked in, I think for important reasons, which is because the dollar is the most important currency in the world, to which all other currencies are pegged, and therefore you don’t change it lightly. You have to be very, very careful. It really locked it into amber in a way that is both beautiful to admire, but also really limits its utility as things move on, we get better things than linen-paper hybrids and especially different sizes and utility for people with different needs. I think that’s important. There’s definitely things to love about the dollar. The dollar has some charm.
COWEN: I like the arrogance of it also. A sense of we don’t need to make the denominations look so different. If you’re a foreigner, we expect you’ll come here a lot, you’ll master dollars. Maybe you use them in your home country as well. They don’t need to be different colors.
MARS: It is definitely a bold statement that you’re going to adapt to our way of being if you’re going to use the dollar, for sure.
Opinions throughout!
The post My design Conversation with Roman Mars appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Researchers set up a fake start-up company to study fraudulent North Korean IT workers.
Up and at my office all the morning, and at noon Mr. Creed came to me and dined with me, and after dinner Murford came to me and he and I discoursed wholly upon his breach of contract with us. After that Mr. Creed and I abroad, I doing several errands, and with him at last to the great coffee-house, and there after some common discourse we parted and I home, paying what I owed at the Mitre in my way, and at home Sympson the joyner coming he set up my press for my cloaks and other small things, and so to my office a little, and to supper, and to bed.
This morning Mr. Blackburne came to me, and telling me what complaints Will made of the usage he had from my wife and other discouragements, and, I seeing him, instead of advising, rather favouring his kinsman, I told him freely my mind, but friendlily, and so we have concluded to have him have a lodging elsewhere, and that I will spare him 15l. of his salary, and if I do not need to keep another 20l..
In general, LLM performance is incredibly multidimensional. There's no guarantee of a fixed ordering where the model that is best at math is also the model that's best at jokes. Despite that complexity, much of the variation in performance is explained by just a single variable: model size. In general, models that are bigger will (a) be more performant / reliable, (b) cost more per token, and (c) have better recall of esoteric facts. As you note, our models are ordered:
Luna < Terra < Sol < Astra
[...] These days, version number signifies a few things at once: the order of release, the relationship to other releases, and the magnitude of improvement. So something like 6.1 would indicate it was launched after 5.6, may share some similarities to other 6.1 models in terms of training data / personality (which is why it's not 5.7), and isn't a giant enough leap to merit the headlines and expectations that would come with a 7.
— Ted Sanders, explaining OpenAI's model naming conventions
Tags: generative-ai, gpt, openai, ai, llms, ted-sanders

This is a pretty stark representation of the impact of agentic engineering on GitHub. In 2026, merged pull requests tripled in less than a year to 220 million per month. Commits more than tripled to 7.38 billion per month, with most of that increase in the second half of this year. New repository rate doubled this year, to 30.3 million per month.
The report includes new numbers by industry, and breaks out numbers for repositories that involve "interoperability or reverse engineering". The methodology section includes notes about how they did this:
Top countries by pushes to public repositories, adjusted by profile location. Pushes from each country were summed across the Octoverse year. To adjust for biases caused by VPN usage, LLM classification was used to extract the ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 code from the profiles of GitHub users who contributed pushes during this period [...]
Industry. Public repositories created 2022 to 2026 were sorted into NAICS sectors by a fine-tuned multilingual embedding model using name, description, topics, and README, from random samples per year. [...]
Interoperability. Counts public repositories created each year whose name, description, topics, or README mention interoperability or reverse engineering, or related terms, such as clean room implementation, drop-in replacement, or protocol re-implementation.
Tags: github, ai, generative-ai, llms, coding-agents, disclosures, agentic-engineering
I've written before about how November 2025 was an inflection point for coding agents - the point where Opus 4.5 and GPT-5.1 crossed a tipping point that meant their respective coding agents became reliable daily drivers for software engineers. I think we've reached a new inflection point in October 2026, and this time it's for vibe coding computer games.
Claude Opus 5.5 in particular exhibits meaningful improvements in several areas needed to build a compelling game:
That last one is particularly important. Models have been able to create something that looks like a game for quite a while now, as seen in my previous experiments. The challenge has been getting to a game that's actually fun to play.
Game design is a deep subject area. I won't pretend to be well versed in it - I know enough to have respect for it as a craft. Creating a novel, compelling gameplay loop which challenges players at the right level and provides a satisfying learning curve is a fine art. I didn't think the models could do it.
Then I tried telling Claude Opus 5.5 to "Make it a LOT more fun"... and it did.
In the past few weeks I've vibe coded (in the classic sense of the term - no looking at the code at all) four games that I've genuinely enjoyed playing.
I attended Foo Camp in Berkeley over the weekend and met several people who were having similar experiences. Building games that play well is shockingly easy now. The new challenge is coming up with concepts for games that are novel and delightful and that wouldn't exist without AI assistance.
I haven't done an exhaustive study, but my current impression is that GPT-6 Astra isn't quite there yet. It can absolutely build a game, but its sense of fun doesn't match that of Opus 5.5. I expect OpenAI will get there by the end of the year.
Here are the four game projects that have convinced me that the models are now capable of producing fun games with very little guidance. All four are built in HTML and JavaScript and run entirely in the browser.
The smallest game I found to be genuinely delightful is Tree Appreciator. I used the regular Claude chat interface for this - it didn't even need Claude Code.
I built this on a whim while we were driving along Skyline Boulevard looking at trees. My prompt was:
Build a three js game called "Tree appreciator" - it shows you two algorithmically generated trees and the game mechanics is about appreciating the differences between them. Think hard about how to make sure it is both fun and beautiful.
I've found that telling models to use three.js works really well. Claude doesn't have its own image generation model but is capable of building full-color 3D models that look and feel excellent.
This game required no iteration or follow-up prompting at all - I got the game in a single shot. It gave me back a charming little mobile-friendly spot-the-difference game. You can play that here. Here's the chat transcript that built it.

It's pleasingly relaxing. The graphics are fun, and collecting trees that you have completed in a "herbarium" provides a nice, cosy sense of accomplishment.
This was a more ambitious project that I again built using regular Claude chat. I started out by building an experimental prototype of an engine for a top-down fantasy RPG:
Build a demo game engine three.js which is a top down (but at an angle) RPG - the player gets to move through the world with one or two companions. Create a fantasy village setting that demonstrates walking around outside and then shows how when the player enters a building the wall between the player and the camera goes transparent so the user can see what is happening
Add some NPCs and plenty of furniture and different types of building some with an upstairs - be creative, make it look great
Here's that first version. It worked really well!

I was inspired to increase my ambitions:
Make it not so flat - the buildings are great but the landscape itself is completely flat at the moment, fix that
Add basements to two of the buildings with a tunnel system joining them below the village
Add the start of a rocky mountain on one side of the village containing a cave with a sleeping troll
Here's that version.

When that produced a good result, I decided to push it all the way:
Now turn this into an actual game - quadruple the size of the playable area, introduce fun game mechanics, add a plot that isn't too cliche, some twists, a magic system, make it really good
We're back to prompts like "make it really good" here! Asking for a plot that "isn't too cliche" seemed to work too - it's a bit cliché, but still novel enough that I enjoyed following the story.
Unlike Tree Appreciator, this took quite a bit of additional playtesting and prompting to get to a finished version. This was mainly due to gameplay problems - things like a character not being in the right place to complete a quest because a different story element had caused them to move to another location.
Here's that final game. It has a full story that takes about 15 minutes to play through.

There's even an experimental level editor if you want to drop in your own houses, furniture, and landscape features.
Once it was all working (and I'd iterated through some gameplay bugs), I played it through from start to finish and found myself emotionally affected by the ending! I'm somewhat embarrassed by this, because everything in this game - the graphics, the plot, the characters, the music, the dialog - came from the model. My creative input was pretty much just "it's a fantasy village and there's a troll asleep in a cave".
Here's the full shared Claude chat in which I built this game.
I also fed that same initial sequence of prompts through ChatGPT GPT-6 Pro. Here's the transcript and the finished game for comparison. It looks great, but I don't think it plays nearly as well.
This is by far my most successful project, which I wrote about last week. It's a Command & Conquer-style Real-Time Strategy game where two robot armies (or four as of Saturday) build units, harvest scrap, and battle over territory.
This is also the project that convinced me that Opus 5.5 knows what "fun" is.
The first versions were built back in July using Claude Fable 5. It got me to a workable 2D Command & Conquer-style game, but it wasn't great to play.
I prompted Opus 5.5 to "Make it a LOT more fun" and then later to "Port this game to three.js" and the game was transformed. There's a blow-by-blow account (prompts included) in my write-up.
Today, Battle Drones has 2-4 player multiplayer (via a vibe coded WebSockets relay server), medals, replays, seven maps, a random map generator, and a set of "mutators" that add variants of the rules.
It also lets different LLMs play against each other, using a mode where the game advances five seconds and then pauses to give different models time to interpret the new game state and line up their next set of commands. Here's a replay of Claude Haiku 5.5 vs. GPT-6 Luna:

Battle Drones is a particularly good example of Opus 5.5's ability to create 3D models. This page lets you browse all of the models in the game.
I released Battle Drones under the Apache 2.0 License last Tuesday. On Wednesday Gabriel Turpin released Panache (screenshots here), a fork of Battle Drones that reimagined the game for steampunk 1900s Belle Époque France, with new models and music and an animated intro sequence. Open source at work!
I live in Half Moon Bay, California, home of the annual Half Moon Bay Art and Pumpkin Festival, which includes a giant pumpkin weigh-off competition.
I decided to try building a game that wasn't just a cheap imitation of something that already existed, so I set out to create a game about farming pumpkins, growing giant pumpkins, and handling the rush of the October pumpkin season.
I called it "Quarter Sun Cove".
I'm still iterating on this project, but it's shaping up quite nicely. It's a cosy farming simulator where you spend the year tending to your giant pumpkin and planting out regular-sized pumpkins for sale in October, then sell pumpkins during pumpkin season and enter your giant pumpkin in the weigh-off.
Every character in it is a (vegetarian) animal. The mayor of the town is a pelican. You can be a pelican, skunk, raccoon, possum, beaver, coyote, fox, owl, sea otter, or harbor seal. Those species all later show up (accompanied by their children) to buy pumpkins from you.
It's absurdly cute.

You can play the latest version here. I'm not convinced by the game mechanics yet - it's actually quite complicated: you have to decide when to plant pumpkins such that they will become ripe at the weekends in October with the most visitors.
Here's the initial brainstorming session, which resulted in this spec file. Then I had Opus 5.5 Ultracode burn millions of tokens and nearly two days building it.
I told Claude to "surprise and delight the user frequently" and the result is so many little details and easter eggs. There are mischievous raccoons, an elephant seal that runs the weigh-off, harbor seals that roll their pumpkins back into the ocean, a wandering goat, and superstitions about growing giant pumpkins that sometimes come true.
This isn't my best game yet - it's not as fun to play as Battle Drones - but it represents the kind of game I want more of: weird, fun, uniquely personal - something that wouldn't have been built in the before-times.
If you are offended by AI-generated art, AI-generated music, AI-generated writing, and AI-generated code, I have bad news for you: vibe coded games combine all of those at once.
I respect those opinions, even though I don’t strongly hold them myself.
The wider games community already has an aversion to AI-generated assets in games. This has been a growing issue over the past few years as tools like Midjourney have enabled developers to generate assets for their projects. This IGN story covering complaints about slop in Valve's Steam Next Fest is a good recent example.
We now have games where everything - code, assets, dialog, and even the game design itself - can be outsourced to the models. And the results don't suck!
Building a computer game used to be one of the most challenging projects in all of software development, combining a diverse range of skills and requiring intense focus and effort over many months or even years. And now here I am spitting out a playable multiplayer RTS by prompting on my phone!
I expect that, as we've already seen with programming, this will result in a split. Some players will refuse to have anything to do with games that were built in this way. Others may embrace this as opening up game development to a much wider audience. I lean in that direction!
I certainly won't be entering any of my vibe coded games in traditional game jams or competitions - I don't feel like I've earned that right. We'll likely see new avenues emerge for vibe game developers to compare their projects.
The thing I find both exciting and shameful about this is that I have got interesting results from so little creative input. The projects I've described here are loosely ordered by how much effort I've put into them. Not a single project represents more than four hours of my work (plus many more hours of Claude Code churning away by itself).
Now imagine what could be achieved by anyone who takes this seriously, invests significant creative time, applies better taste in game design, and then playtests and iterates on the result until it's as good as they can make it.
I want to see games that wouldn't have existed without these new tools.
Building games in this way is so much fun. It's the perfect application for vibe coding because it's so low stakes: how much damage can you cause with a bug in a personal vibe coded game project?
(OK, you can do some damage... my attempt at audio-based multiplayer gave my wife Natalie a nasty headache!)
All of my games so far have been HTML and JavaScript using static hosting (generally GitHub Pages or Cloudflare Pages). Modern browsers - including mobile browsers - are incredibly capable. Frontier models already know libraries like three.js and Phaser. I'm finding these mobile web games to be indistinguishable from the native experience, at least for the kinds of games I'm trying to build.
I suggest starting with a prompt like this:
Build a mobile-friendly three.js game where...
This works on both chatgpt.com and claude.ai - you don't even need to fire up a full coding agent. As one last example, here's "Build a mobile-friendly three.js game where a mouse has to hide from a cat" by Claude Opus 5.5 Extra and by GPT-6 Extra High.
Switch to Codex or Claude Code once your project passes the proof-of-concept phase.
And if the game isn't fun enough, add this:
Make it a LOT more fun
Tags: game-design, games, ai, generative-ai, chatgpt, llms, claude, vibe-coding, claude-code
If your work does not benefit from current AI tooling, that is a finding, not a failing. Document why, share it with your community of peers, bring it to your manager, and work to find solutions. An engineer who can explain where AI does not yet help their work is demonstrating the judgement we are asking for.
— Terk Terkowitz, An update from Amazon engineering leadership on the role of the developer in the age of AI
Tags: amazon, generative-ai, agentic-engineering, ai, llms
Like everyone who has been paying attention, I have worries about the possible negative effects from AI. And it’s a long laundry list of worries. One, there is the technology’s anti-labor bias, which may accelerate our downward spiral into oligarchy. Next, there is the fact that the data center boom is crowding out investment in almost everything else, yet data centers employ hardly any workers. Third, I’m worried about the high probability that AI looks like a bubble, particularly given the sheer size of the AI boom. If it is indeed a bubble, it will inevitably burst and will probably plunge the U.S. economy back into a liquidity trap due to its size.
Oh, and Anthropic tells me that AI may well wipe out the human race, which is why I should invest in the company’s IPO.
But I guess I haven’t been talking enough to the technologists, because I wasn’t aware until last week of the strong possibility that AI will render the internet as we know it unusable — not at some point in the distant future, but in a matter of months.
It has already started. Reuters reports:
Government websites in Europe and elsewhere went offline on Wednesday after the disclosure of critical vulnerabilities in a widely used programming language sent website operators around the world scrambling to protect their systems.
Developers of the PHP programming language on Wednesday released urgent new fixes to vulnerabilities that had been lurking in their software for years until they were uncovered using AI, saying all users were “encouraged to update immediately.”
With tech firms warning that some hackers were already exploiting the flaws, government agencies across Europe were among those that took sites offline as a precaution.
Because a fix is now public and artificial intelligence tools are able to reverse engineer the bug with little effort, experts said they were bracing for a wave of intrusions as hackers jumped to get ahead of the updates.
AI was powering a “race to exploit,” said Costin Raiu, co-founder of cybersecurity research and incident response firm TLP:Black. He said the next step was the “mass compromise of every vulnerable web server on the internet.
And this is just the beginning of what Zvi Mowshowitz calls The Hackening. Two days later, Reuters reported that:
Advances in artificial intelligence have uncovered a stream of new software vulnerabilities that are almost certain to trigger more disruption along the lines of the outages that percolated across global government websites this week, according to seven cybersecurity professionals who spoke to Reuters.
It quoted one expert as saying “I think we’re going to have a couple years where every single week it’s going to feel like the sky is falling.”
Azeem Ashar, whose Substack Exponential View has been one of my main guides to what is happening with AI, calls what happened last week “The internet’s Wuhan moment” — as in the emergence of the coronavirus that caused the Covid pandemic, which killed millions and also temporarily plunged the whole world economy into a deep slump.
I’m not a technologist, but here’s how I understand the problem: Websites run on complex, multi-layered software that, because of its sheer complexity, inevitably contains security flaws that bad actors could potentially exploit. Worse, much of the software is old — PHP dates from the early 1990s — and was hence designed in an era in which modern hacking techniques didn’t exist.
And AI models, it turns out, are incredibly powerful hacking tools. Merely human evildoers may lack the time, patience and attention to detail to go over old code line by line, finding security flaws that may have gone unnoticed for decades. AI models suffer from no such limitations. Institutions that learn about security threats may be able to install patches that block them — but the very act of disseminating a patch gives hackers the information they need to go after institutions that didn’t apply those patches immediately.
And Azhar tells us that regulating AI by requiring “safety training” — instructions to the models that deter destructive actions — will be far less effective than one might hope. Why? Because such training is relatively easy to “abliterate,” which means reversing a few key prompts in a way that undoes most of the safety training.
So what are we going to do? I don’t think we’ll be going back to carbon paper and filing cabinets. For the most part we probably won’t even have to rely on air-gapped local networks that are fully cut off from the internet. Azhar thinks that we’ll move instead to a system of partially closed domains, like AOL in its early years or the SABRE system used by travel agents, which are difficult but not impossible for people and institutions outside those domains to access.
Such closed domains are often called “walled gardens,” but I’d suggest that a better analogy is “gated communities,” like the one my late parents lived in toward the end of their lives. People who didn’t live in their community could visit them, but only if my parents had provided their names to the staff manning the gate. It worked — they could invite friends from outside over — but it was annoying and time-consuming compared with life outside the gates, where everyone could come and go freely.
Similarly, a digital society that imposes annoying security restrictions and checks but is much less vulnerable to AI-powered hacking should be workable. But security will come at a cost. How much of a cost?
Some back-of-the-envelope calculations, which I won’t share here, suggest that the advent of the open internet raised GDP by around 10 percent. A more secure system of gated digital communities will mean giving up only part of that gain — in the long run.
But I’m much more worried about the short run, because our whole economy is currently designed to work with an open web. Suppose, for example, that we’re forced to revert to the old system in which you had to physically visit a travel agent with a secure SABRE link to buy plane tickets. I remember that world, and it wasn’t horrible. But most of the travel agents and offices that used to perform that function are gone and can’t be instantly conjured back into existence. And you have to imagine that problem occurring all across the economy.
Again, this isn’t a hypothetical future risk. It’s happening as you read this.
Just the other day AI enthusiasts were talking about how their miraculous technology would soon generate 10 or 15 percent a year economic growth. That was always silly. But now there’s a very real prospect that for the next few years AI, by empowering bad guys and forcing us to suddenly adapt to new threats, will make us poorer.
MUSICAL CODA
No obvious relation to post, but somehow fits my pre-midterms mood
Neal Stephenson came on the podcast. What else do I have to tell you?
The man has a weird mind portal into how technology will develop and has influenced generations of nerds. As a result, I seem to have spent my career covering things that Stephenson predicted in his best-selling books.
He’s out with a new book now, D: Heavy Water, which served as a lovely excuse to get Neal on the show.
In the episode, we talk space, brain computer interfaces, swords, Hollywood and much more. Oddly, Stephenson says that the rapid development of AI caught him off guard. Go figure.
Anyway. Living Legend. Go listen and watch.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:53 D and the Atomic Race
4:34 Inside the Book Tour
8:21 AI Caught Him Off Guard
11:09 Is This the Singularity?
15:27 AI's Manhattan Project Moment
28:32 Brains, Bodies and Words
38:31 What Actually Worries Neal
40:11 Can Fiction Inspire Progress?
49:56 Why No Snow Crash?
55:06 Jane Austen Meets Fortnite
1:03:21 Inside Early Blue Origin
1:13:43 Rockets, Guns and Giant Towers
1:20:36 Why Radical Rockets Struggle
1:23:05 Swords and Selective Technology
1:27:15 Can AI Fix Education?
1:32:31 Storytelling Versus Predicting the Future
The private space tourism era looked so very promising five years ago. Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic had begun flying customers—real people with zero space experience—on suborbital missions. And at about the same time, private citizens were going to orbit for days at a time aboard SpaceX's Crew Dragon.
But that was then. Consider the state of play today:
So we are now 10 months, and counting, without a space tourism mission in the United States.

NASA is two spacewalks away from completing a major, years-long upgrade to the International Space Station that will power the orbiting lab through to its planned decommissioning in 2030.
More than five years after the upgrade work first began in earnest, NASA astronaut Anil Menon, 43, and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk, 44, are scheduled to depart the station’s Quest airlock at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) Thursday to install and unfurl the seventh of eight International Space Station Roll-Out Solar Arrays, or IROSAs.
The compact, high-efficiency panels are designed to make up for power lost as the station’s original solar wings have degraded over more than two decades in orbit. Spaceflight Now will carry live coverage of the spacewalk starting at 6:30 a.m. EDT (1030 UTC).
If all goes to plan, Menon and Kutryk will venture back into the vacuum of space Nov. 5 to install the eighth and final array, capping an upgrade campaign that began in 2021. NASA says the eight IROSA arrays will raise the station’s available power from 160 kilowatts to about 215 kilowatts, supporting critical operations through the outpost’s final years, including its “safe and controlled deorbit” after it is retired in 2030.

“Overall, these roll-out arrays increase our power generation capability up to 30 percent,” Gaurang Patel, operations integration manager for NASA’s Low Earth Orbit Program, said during an Oct. 20 briefing at the Johnson Space Center in Houston.
Thursday’s outing, which marks the 285th spacewalk devoted to station assembly, maintenance and upgrades, is planned to last about six hours and 45 minutes. It will be Menon’s fourth excursion outside the ISS airlock and the first for Kutryk. During Thursday’s spacewalk and on Nov. 5, Menon is scheduled to perform a series of complex maneuvers atop to the station’s robotic arm to transport the final IROSA arrays into position for roll out.
Menon, a U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel and emergency physician, has made his three prior spacewalks since July when he arrived at the ISS aboard a Russian Soyuz.
Kutryk, a Royal Canadian Air Force colonel and test pilot who boarded the ISS Oct. 1 as part of SpaceX’s Crew-13 mission, will become the fifth Canadian astronaut to walk in space and the first since David Saint-Jacques in 2019.

The pair of final IROSA solar wings arrived at the station rolled up and folded on a carrier in the unpressurized trunk of a SpaceX Cargo Dragon capsule after receiving a boost to orbit from a Falcon 9 rocket launched Oct. 13 from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Each IROSA assembly weighs about 750 pounds, said Garrett Hehn, the spacewalk flight director, who is leading the operation with flight director Greg Whitney.
After Menon and Kutryk free the first array from the carrier Thursday, Menon will lock his boots into a foot restraint on the end of the station’s Canadian-made robotic arm — Canadarm2 — and ride it, array in hand, out to the left, or port, side of the station’s main truss. NASA astronauts Jessica Watkins and Luke Delaney will fly the arm from inside the station while Kutryk makes his way to the installation site along the truss.
While in transit, the arm will pivot around the IROSA assembly’s center of mass, rather than Menon’s, one direction at a time — a lesson learned from earlier installs meant to make the work “a little less tiring” for the astronaut holding it, Hehn said.
While the rolled up array is weightless in space, it still carries 750 pounds of inertia.
Once the IROSA is bolted to an awaiting mounting bracket astronauts installed during a March spacewalk, Menon and Kutryk will swing it open, doubling its length from about 10 feet to 20 feet. Hehn called that step “one of our key points of the EVA,” or extravehicular activity.

Menon and Kutryk then must lock the two halves in place and connect the new array’s power cables to the station while it’s in Earth’s shadow, when none of its solar panels are generating electricity.
“We can’t have any sun on the arrays whenever we’re handling those hot cables,” Hehn explained.
Finally, the astronauts will release the last restraints and let the IROSA array unroll on its own over about 10 minutes — no motors required — thanks to energy stored in carbon-fiber composite booms. Hehn likened the panels to a snap bracelet that, once released, “just continues rolling out steadily.”
Space shuttles delivered the station’s eight original solar wings, which were designed to last 15 years, between 2000 and 2009. Rather than replacing them outright, NASA opted to mount the smaller IROSA arrays, which generate about 8 kilowatts of electricity each, in front of the old wings, allowing the original panels’ unshaded portions to keep producing power.
The first IROSA unfurled in June 2021, though not without a fight: A spacesuit glitch and an array that wouldn’t unfold cleanly forced astronauts Shane Kimbrough and Thomas Pesquet to finish the job on a second spacewalk. Six arrays were in place by June 2023, and NASA ordered an additional pair that summer.

The Nov. 5 spacewalk will take the eighth and final array to the far right end of the station’s main truss, beyond the reach of its robotic arm. As during Thursday’s EVA, Menon will ferry the array atop the robotic arm as far as it will take him, but to cover the last stretch, he and Kutryk will pass the array between foot restraints in a maneuver Hehn said the team “lovingly” calls “the leapfrog.”
As with all spacewalks, the work carries risk. NASA’s spacesuits date to a design first flown in 1983 and are responsible for providing critical life support in the harsh environment of low earth orbit, where temperatures fluctuate between 250 degrees Fahrenheit in sunlight to minus 250 degrees in darkness during each 90-minute orbit.
A NASA inspector general audit last year flagged aging hardware and thin supplies of spare-parts as potential safety weak spots.
Collisions between a spacewalking astronaut and space debris as small as a grain of sand can prove “life threatening,” according to NASA, due to the sheer speeds involved: The ISS and the astronauts orbiting the Earth with it are already traveling at about 17,500 mph, and collisions with space debris in low earth orbit average about 22,000 mph, or 10 kilometers per second, according to NASA’s White Sands Test Facility.
Hehn said Oct. 20 that the suits are “not entirely redundant” and acknowledged they are aging, “which means we know they have some quirks.”
“Our primary goal is to keep the crew safe,” he said.
Links for you. Science:
A duty to act
Identification and genetic characterization of megabase-scale plasmids of Enterobacteriaceae
Multilevel HierCC typing scheme for global genomic epidemiology and antimicrobial resistance surveillance of Campylobacter jejuni
Death and chemotaxis: Bacterial chemotaxis enables collective escape from phage predation
Antibiotic-Resistant Genes Found in Homes Near Factory Farms (I have some serious methodological questions about the paper itself, but the results appear to trend in the correct direction)
Breakthrough vaccine for the deadliest skin cancer cut risk by almost half
Repeated emergence and fitness heterogeneity of KPC-33 in ST11 Klebsiella pneumoniae under ceftazidime–avibactam pressure
Other:
Trump Cannot Be the End of the Story
The rape allegations against Trump: what we know and what is still being hidden
Kennedy Makes Bigoted Remarks About Arabs at Michigan Campaign Event
Mark Teixeira Is Sleepwalking Into Congress
The knives are out for Pete Hegseth
Hegseth Eyes Senate Seat as He Tries to Avoid Getting the Axe
Former Miss Switzerland Beatrice Keul Alleges Donald Trump Raped Her at the Plaza Hotel in 1993
Pete Hegseth eyeing Senate seat as impeachment threat looms
Democrats Release 50-Page Report on Trump’s Epstein Files Cover-Up. The report alleges Donald Trump was an “active participant” in Jeffrey Epstein’s abuse.
Ramaswamy tries to reframe controversial ad, claiming it wasn’t about child sex abuse amid protests
The Chocolate Conspiracy. Everyone in my life agreed: It tastes different now. I ventured into the molten belly of our crumbling world to find out why.
Brent Taylor’s Sexting Problem: Republican congressional candidate asks voters to forgive past sexual advances as ‘youthful indiscretions’
Brazil election loser Flavio Bolsonaro ‘flees to USA’ after demanding vote be annulled & cops tried to seize passports
Flávio Bolsonaro flees Brazil after presidential election loss
Controversial “Musk” Documentary Pulled From Almost Every One of 472 Theaters After One Week by Newly Sold Bleecker Street Films (but cancel culture something something)
Where did fake transgender rights group pamphlets sent to Texas families come from? KHOU 11 is learning the LLC is based in Wyoming
Flávio
Tom Skerritt, Emmy-winning actor with roles in ‘Picket Fences,’ ‘Alien’ and ‘Top Gun,’ dies at 93
A 28-Year-Old DOGE Operative Gutted USAID. HR Had No Record of Him Working There
Living in the long, stupid shadow of the Big Lie
Youthful Indiscretions
Like Ken Paxton, Without the Baggage. The most important race in Texas is for attorney general.
Defund Elon Musk
Golan Urges Opposition to Form Partnership With Arab Parties to Replace Netanyahu
Automating the Bribe State
“No human at the helm”: Delaware plan would let AI agents run entire businesses
Mike Rogers’ Religious Bigotry Threatens All of Michigan’s Jews
Extradition Treaties
Robert White Is Rushing to Preserve His Eligibility in the D.C. Delegate Race
D.C. teens weigh in on gun violence, poverty, mental health, and safety in the city
When I started this Substack in 2021 it had one job: keep me writing by creating community, feedback, and energy. I wrote about tidyings, then coupling and cohesion, then the book took over and the newsletter took the book’s name, Software Design: Tidy First?
I’ve been reflecting on current state and realized my writing has outgrown the name. I still wri…
138 papers audited
2,035 problems found
147 serious enough to change a headline number
69% of papers have at least one
97% of major and moderate errors with a clear direction overstate the paper’s claim
And on the method:
Two independent audits of each paper. One by Claude Opus 5.5, one by OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, neither seeing the other’s work. Each obtained the paper, its appendices and its replication data, recomputed the headline numbers from the authors’ own files and, where possible, from the original sources (tax statistics, national accounts, Federal Reserve and survey data), checked that cited sources say what is claimed, and probed every assumption the conclusions rest on.
Then an adjudicator. A third agent re-verified every claimed problem, tried to refute each one, discarded those that did not survive, searched for problems both auditors missed, and graded what remained by how far it undermines the paper’s own headline claim: major changes a core number materially, moderate affects secondary results or a core result modestly, minor is a presentation or arithmetic slip. Confidence is graded separately.
There is much, much more at the link, which goes through the research paper by paper, and with further sustained analyses behind the links. The survey is both extensive and thorough. (And I thank an anonymous MR reader for this work.)
I am not even sure what to say at this point. We need a radical revaluation of this work, and of the associated policy arguments. More generally, this is only a single step in the story of how AI is going to revise economic science, and indeed past research more generally. As I stress in many of my recent talks, there will be significant gains and losses in status, with the losses often outweighing the gains. I see this as one of those cases.
The post Errors in the research of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Does generative AI narrow or widen productivity gaps in research? We study the distributional effects of AI on research productivity in economics using evidence from three sources: NBER working-paper and publication records, text-based measures of LLM-assisted writing, and an original survey of 227 academic economists measuring AI use across research tasks. We first show that productivity gaps among NBER authors narrowed following ChatGPT’s release: authors without research assistants (RAs) published a larger share of papers in top-tier journals, while authors from smaller teams gained in working-paper output and publication speed. We then use the survey to examine how individual AI use affects research productivity. We find weak evidence that AI affects working-paper output on average, but there is substantial heterogeneity. Triple-difference estimates show that greater AI exposure narrows the output gap between researchers with and without RAs but widens the gap between senior and junior researchers. Selection into AI use follows a different pattern: junior researchers use AI more intensively and are more likely to use agentic tools. Thus, these differential productivity effects reflect differences in the returns to AI rather than selection into AI use. A model with diminishing returns to execution, increasing returns to conceptual capacity, and complementarity between the two explains how AI can alleviate disadvantages in research support while amplifying the returns to accumulated expertise. Over time, however, early convergence may give way to divergence as execution constraints recede and AI’s conceptual capabilities improve.
That is from Tianyu Jiang, who is this year a job market candidate from the University of Michigan. The paper is co-authored with Yuqing (Claire) Wang.
The post How is AI shaping economic research? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

– Two demonstration missions planned aboard SpaceX Falcon 9, one each in 2027 and 2028 – Satoro to provide “Satellite-as-a-service” solution; Flexell Space to supply solar cells and test modules […]
The post Flexell Space and Satoro Agree to Collaborate on In-Orbit Demonstration of Next-Generation Space Solar Cells appeared first on SpaceNews.
Steven Levy, writing at Wired with the scoop on the new MacBook Pros (News+ link):
This turnaround is a big deal to Apple fans. Ternus shrugs off the drama. “The Mac is first and foremost an indirect input device, built around the trackpad and keyboard. But I think there’s times when it’s comfortable and handy to have touch.”
Ternus and Apple want to make sure that the Mac faithful don’t panic that the 42-year-old franchise is losing its identity to Apple’s gangbusters mobile products. “We needed to get to a point where adding touch didn’t make the product lesser in any way. It didn’t make it heavier. It didn’t make it thicker. That came together with the OLED screen, the best display we’ve ever put into a Mac,” Ternus told me. “All of these things, and, oh yeah, it has touch as well.”
After a long fun day of hands-on exploration, briefings, and a slew of demos, not just most, but all of my concerns about touchscreen support adversely affecting the Mac UI have been allayed. I love it. These seem like exquisite machines even if you never want to touch the screen. I think what Ternus told Levy captures the truth of touch’s role: “All of these things, and, oh yeah, it has touch as well.”
1. A new taxonomy of work, for the AI era. Thread here.
2. On Morel’s Invention (NYT).
3. Iranian brick architecture.
4. How do non-profits use cash windfalls?
5. The roots of earlier German industrial success.
6. Susquehanna Hat Company skit.
The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
An intriguing mission to L1 has caught my eye, one with implications for solar sail development as well as climate issues here on Earth. But the research on that story is taking longer than I anticipated, so for today I want to cut to a brief account of the new dwarf planet candidate in the outer Solar System. This is an example of the power of the Vera Rubin Observatory on Cerro Pachón in the Chilean Andes, and a reminder of the numerous discoveries headed our way from its ongoing Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will produce a high-definition view involving 10 TB of data every night.
ED138, which still awaits confirmation, looks to be a fitting companion for Pluto and Ceres in the dwarf planet category, joined by later discoveries Eris, Haumea and Makemake. Each of these last three objects has its own interest as a possible mission destination, with Makemake’s ring system, Haumea’s extreme spin and shape (not to mention its ice moons Hi’iaka and Namaka), and unusually reflective Eris’ possible internal activity and large moon Dysnomia. One would assume, given how early we are in the decade-long survey’s lifetime, that there will be numerous other dwarf planets out there, conceivably in the hundreds as we collect new Trans-Neptunians and Kuiper Belt Objects.

Image: A view of the solar system showing the orbital pathway of dwarf planet candidate 2026 ED138, discovered in data from the Simonyi Survey telescope at the NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Initial analysis indicates that it may be among the largest and brightest bodies scientists have discovered in this region of the solar system. Photo: NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory / NOIRLab / SLAC / AURA / R. Proctor. Image Processing: M. Zamani (NSF NOIRLab). Orbit data provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center (MPCorb catalog), funded by NASA PDCO and the Tamkin Foundation. Star map: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio. Gaia DR2: ESA/Gaia/DPAC.
We can thank a familiar name, Matthew Holman (Harvard & Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics) for this discovery, working with Mario Jurić at the University of Washington. ED138 turns out to be the largest trans-Neptunian object we’ve found in the last two decades, and Jurić points out that it was discovered while scientists were still putting the Rubin instrument through the commissioning process. That’s an impressive thought, and one that bodes well for the LSST.
We know little about the object, of course, other than that at present it is some 46 AU out, a bit further than Pluto’s average distance of 40 AU, and there is much to learn about the characteristics of its orbit. The early work, which includes archival images of the object from as early as 2016, has suggested that the orbit is perhaps 25 degrees from the ecliptic, which must indicate gravitational interactions in its history that probably involve Neptune. Says Jurić:
“Rubin is giving us an unprecedented capacity to explore the sky through a combination of speed, depth, and precision. And the discovery is just the beginning: Once we identify a new object, we can search back months, and sometimes even decades, finding it in images where nobody knew to look. This ability to both discover and ‘precover’ objects is transforming how quickly and accurately we can determine their orbits and understand the distant solar system.”
That this is a large object was evident from its albedo, which allows an estimate of 600 to 1500 kilometers in size. I see that Harvard’s Avi Loeb has just written about ED138, noting that it appears in the sky close to the plane of the Milky Way, where background stars make observations difficult. This is the kind of thing that’s made to order for the Rubin Observatory given the intention of using it for continuous monitoring of the sort that will flag the movement of such tiny light sources. Needless to say, the instrument should also be our best detector of interstellar objects like 1I/`Oumuamua, 2I/Borisov and 3I/ATLAS.

On Sunday a student-led democratic movement ousted Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić, a key ally of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, from power. Today Serbian TV started its news program by apologizing to viewers. “For years, we failed to fulfill our duty. We kept silent, turned a blind eye, reported events one-sidedly and failed to ask necessary questions. We owe our viewers an apology.”
Also on Sunday, right-wing presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro lost to leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil. Despite what appears to have been the restriction by Meta, the company that owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, of social media accounts that promoted Lula and its promotion of pro-Bolsonaro accounts, Lula pulled out a victory.
Tiago Rogero and Tom Phillips of the Guardian reported that Lula’s victory came, in large part, from street protesters who helped different factions come together against Bolsonaro and from Lula’s supporters’ use of social media to override Meta’s restrictions and make pro-Lula content perform well on social media. Lula ally André Janones created a WhatsApp channel called “Lula’s Army” that organized more than 10 million followers to push back against Bolsonaro content and boost Lula.
Three weeks ago, many observers thought Bolsonaro would win the election. Bolsonaro and his supporters had cultivated the idea they were allied with Trump in fighting off a perceived communist threat. A victory for Bolsonaro would help to spread the idea of Trump’s control over the Western Hemisphere as he helped to install right-wing leaders across Latin America. But in the end, the vote was not close. Lula supporters organized voters, explained what social media was suppressing, helped folks get to the polls, and Lula won by more than 4 million votes.
Initially, Bolsonaro said that he would not accept defeat and would ask for the result of the election to be annulled. In that refusal to accept the results of an election, Bolsonaro echoed his father, right-wing leader Jair Bolsonaro, the former president of Brazil who in 2023 launched a coup to remain in power after voters elected Lula. The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence for his role in that coup attempt.
As Megan Messerly, Daniel Desrochers, Ari Hawkins, and Phelim Kine of Politico reported, the younger Bolsonaro had the support of MAGA insiders in the U.S., who claimed the Brazilian election had been stolen. On Sunday, Trump himself told reporters that Brazil’s election “looked so, so corrupt, so terrible.”
But on Monday, Trump suggested to reporters he would not intervene in the election, and as Michael Birnbaum, Marina Dias, and Terrence McCoy of the Washington Post reported, minutes later, Bolsonaro effectively conceded. A Bolsonaro advisor told the reporters: “Flávio has given up. He’s terrified. He is worried his father will die in jail, that he himself will be jailed this week and that he may have a long prison term ahead.”
Brazilian authorities ordered Flávio Bolsonaro, who is under investigation for corruption, money laundering, and currency evasion, to surrender his passport and stay in the country. Bolsonaro posted a video saying he would comply and that he had never thought of leaving Brazil. But today he went missing. Brazil’s Federal Police canceled his passports and began to look for him.
Bolsonaro and his family turned up this afternoon in the United States, where a senior State Department official told reporters the State Department would offer the family visas to enter the country. Bolsonaro’s allies cheered that he would lead Brazil’s right-wing opposition to Lula from the United States.
Meanwhile, concerns are circulating about a manipulation of information in the U.S. before the midterm election, similar to what happened in Brazil. As Kevin Frey of MS NOW reported today, Democratic representatives Robert Garcia of California and Jamie Raskin of Maryland are demanding that Meta owner Mark Zuckerberg explain why the main Instagram account of No Kings was suspended earlier this month during the October 17 No Kings rallies around the country that were encouraging Americans to vote. The representatives wrote that the “apparent” act of “corporate censorship of political speech raise[s] serious concerns about Meta’s dedication to ensuring free and fair elections.”
The representatives dismissed Meta’s explanation that the outage was caused by an automated action triggered “when accounts post, share or comment at very high frequencies.” Garcia and Raskin wrote that such an explanation strained “public credulity,” and noted that Meta appeared to have interfered in Brazil’s election.
“Technical glitches occur,” the congressmen wrote, “but at Meta they are happening frequently and, curiously, seem to disproportionately impact the political opponents of President Trump and his authoritarian political alliances.” Garcia and Raskin noted that the interests of Zuckerberg and Meta in government contracts mean they have a financial incentive to cooperate with Trump.
In addition to the suppression of information, disinformation is also a concern. As George Chidi of the Guardian reported today, disinformation, driven by AI, is running rampant on social media in the U.S. in the runup to the midterm election. Social media companies reduced their efforts to stop the flood of disinformation in the wake of Trump’s reelection, Chidi writes, and now official government sources like the Department of Homeland Security sometimes amplify the lies.
Trump and his allies have always relied on a false narrative to gain and then to keep power. They adopted a strategy developed by Russian political theorists to overturn democracy by using modern media to create a false political world. Voters begin to base their political decisions on that fake image, rather than on reality, and are manipulated into giving up control of their government to an authoritarian.
Political strategists who were key to the rise of Russian president Vladimir Putin after the collapse of the Soviet Union called this manipulation “political technology.” They perverted democracy, turning it from the concept of voters choosing their leaders into the concept of voters rubber-stamping the leaders they had been manipulated into backing.
“The Democrats don’t matter,” Trump ally Steve Bannon told a reporter in 2018. “The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with sh*t.” Keeping listeners constantly trying to distinguish what is real from what is not destroys their ability to make sense of the world. Many people turn to a strongman who promises to create order. Others will get so exhausted they simply give up.
Trump’s allegiance to Putin continues to be on display. Today journalists reported the administration is considering lifting sanctions on Russia’s multibillion-dollar government investment fund. Anton Troianovski of the New York Times explained that the Biden administration placed sanctions on the fund immediately after Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, cutting it off from the West’s financial system. Lifting those sanctions would be an economic boon to Russia in the midst of its war on Ukraine.
Peter Andringa, Chris Campbell, and Eenee Purevdorj of the Financial Times reported today that Donald Trump Jr. took a hunting trip in Mongolia this August with Umar Kremlev, the man who helped to finance Don Jr.’s wedding party in May. Kremlev is a boxing promoter with a criminal record of extortion and battery, and is close to Putin. The journalists called the relationship between Trump and Kremlev “remarkable.”
On the trip, Jr. shot and killed an endangered sheep prized for its large horns. According to the Financial Times, this was at least the third Altai argali he has killed.
Tonight Angie Nixon, the Democratic state representative who is running for the U.S. Senate from Florida wrote in a social media post addressed to Meta that her campaign’s Instagram page “was suddenly taken down while we were actively posting content from” a “get-out-the-vote rally in Osceola County, home to a large Puerto Rican community.”
“This page is a critical communication tool for reaching Latino voters and mobilizing our community,” she wrote. “With just seven days until Election Day, every minute matters.”
She continued: “The stakes are too high to take down pages encouraging people to vote in seven days, Meta & Instagram.”
—
Notes:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/26/lula-victory-brazil-bolsonaro-analysis
https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/27/americas/flavio-bolsonaro-brazil-passports-latam-intl
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/27/world/americas/brazil-flavio-bolsonaro-flees-election.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/27/ai-disinformation-social-media-midterm-elections
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/virtual-politics-and-the-corruption-post-soviet-democracy
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/16/media/steve-bannon-reliable-sources/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/27/us/politics/russia-fund-sanctions-trump.html
https://www.ft.com/content/f41fc704-c9e6-42de-b800-d43cabe61947
https://newrepublic.com/post/217191/donald-trump-jr-hunting-trip-friendship-putin-ally
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Adam Nash has a good post on wealth inequality:
…Every year, we pull the most recent data from the US Census on household wealth, cut by age.
…invariably, the students’ initial response is a reaction to the apparent disparity in wealth between households based on age.
For many students, it just doesn’t seem fair at first blush. Households between the ages of 65 to 69 have a median net worth that is 9.83x that of households under 35. You can almost hear their cries, “the Baby Boomers are hoarding all the wealth!”
Almost all of the graph, however, is aging! Nash considers a totally equal society called Equal Land. In Equal Land:
The result is that in equal land the distribution of wealth is even more unequal by age than in our world! This is not to say all or even most inequality is explained by age. Most inequality in our world is within-age, not between-age. But when you look at an age-wealth graph specifically, almost all of what you are seeing is just age and the power of compounding.
The post Inequality in Equal Land appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Petty disputes, pleas for help and requests for gold – explore letters sent to Egyptian pharaohs more than 3,000 years ago
- by Aeon Video
There are three major exit polls in Israel. Two of those three have now revised their estimates to a tie between the two blocs with 51 seats each. The third still has it at 52 for the change bloc and 50 for the Netanyahu bloc. That’s only a single seat difference from the earlier estimates which all had a change lead. But it’s a pretty significant single-seat difference since it gives the two blocs an equal number of seats. It remains mostly symbolic since neither side is anywhere close to 61 seats. But for the narrative, vibes, claims to the legitimacy, it shifts things at least somewhat.
Late Update – 8:33 p.m.: Likud and the Netanyahu bloc continue to improve over the initial exit polls. Of the three main exit polls, two show a 51-51 tie and the third shows a 52-49 lead for Netanyahu’s bloc. These still leave both blocs far from the minimum of 61 seats to form a government. But as I noted above, it gives Netanyahu more of an argument for a “win.” Interestingly, the exit poll that shows the 52-49 Netanyahu bloc lead shows the “change” bloc losing one of those seats to the Joint List, which in that exit poll gets 12 seats. Likud officials are reportedly telling journalists they’re expecting their bloc total to rise to 55 or 57 votes. Obviously, talk is cheap. You can spin as much as you want. But I don’t have a good feeling about this trajectory.

A D.C. grand jury has refused to vote for an indictment of Cassidy Hutchinson, the one-time first-term Trump aide who became a star witness for the House January 6th subcommittee that investigated the attack. Obviously it’s good that illegitimate attempt failed since Hutchinson is guilty of nothing more than acting honorably. It’s embarrassing for the administration since it’s hard to fail at the grand jury level where the government is literally in charge of everything. But there’s something deeper and more important here: the un-strategic, increasingly impulsive and ultimately self-defeating nature of the Trump legal retribution campaign.
It’s true that the White House squeezes money and well-being from the targets of its campaign even when it doesn’t secure convictions. But when the failures are so consistent and so abject they have the effect of advertising both the president’s abuses of power and his weakness. Successfully abusing your power is a display of dominance which spreads fear. These clumsy and grasping failures more so generate anger and contempt. A shrewder would-be autocrat wouldn’t have made himself so deeply unpopular, in such foreseeable ways while he was trying to impose an Orban-style autocracy. Even at this late date, one with any foresight or self-control would drop these antics and focus other kinds of wrongdoing. But Trump simply can’t. We don’t diminish the gravity of Trump’s wrongdoing by noting that he is failing in this effort.
Brewers - 000 110 000 001 - 3 8 2
Rays - 010 100 000 002 - 4 9 1The
Brewers made history on Tuesday night, though it was far from the history they would have chosen. They Brewers the first World Series team to be three outs away from a
World Series championship and lose the game without getting recording any of those three outs.
After Cooper Pratt (who made his major league debut a little over six months ago), homered in the top of the twelfth, giving the Brewers a 4-3 lead. It was the first time a rookie has hit a home run in extra innings in the World Series. Milwaukee, having kept the Rays off the scoreboard since the fourth inning, was hopeful of securing the franchise's first WS title.
Brewers third baseman Joey Ortiz committed a throwing error, allowing Junior Caminero to reach base to begin the bottom of the twelfth. Then reliever Shane Drohan, another rookie and the eighth Milwaukee pitcher of the night, came in and gave up four consecutive singles (Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca, Chandler Simpson, and pinch-hitter Ben Williamson (above pics)), three of which were grounded through the infield. The Rays scored two runs, won the game, and ensured that Game 5 will be played Wednesday night at the Trop.
It was a surprising end to a game in a series in which Milwaukee has dominated the Rays in all aspects of the game.
From 1903-2025, a World Series team won the first three games 25 times. Those 25 teams either swept the series (21 times) or lost Game 4 and won Game 5 (four times).
There have now been 14 consecutive World Series without a sweep, the longest stretch in baseball history. The last WS sweep was in 2012, when the Giants swept the Tigers.
The Brewers had a small but of a rally in the first, when Griffin Jax (4-4-2-2-6, 74) walked two batters, but those runners were left at first and third. The Rays got on the board first, in the bottom of the second. Dustin May (3-3-2-0-3, 39) gave up a leadoff single to Hicks, who was forced at second by DeLuca, who beat the relay throw. Simpson lined an 0-2 pitch into the right field corner for a double and a 1-0 lead.
Milwaukee tied the game two innings later. With two outs, Sam Frelick grounded a single into right field. Pratt (who went 4-for-5 in the game) doubled to left. But then the Rays, showing some life, immediately took the lead in the bottom of the frame. Caminero singled – and Jojo Romero relieved May. Hicks grounded to first, moving the runner to second. DeLuca grounded to third and David Hamilton of the Brewers unwisely tried tagging Caminero with the ball in his hand as he ran from second to third. Caminero dodged the tag and then Hamilton threw wildly to first for an error, which allowed Caminero to score. Then, as these things often happen, Hamilton homered to deep right-center to lead off the top of the fifth (on an 0-2 pitch!), instantly atoning for his fielding blunders, and re-tying the game at 2-2.
At which point, both lineups took a long nap – and 13 scoreless half-innings passed until the eventful 12th inning. In that time, the Rays had three baserunners, one of which reached second. The Brewers also had three men on base, but two reached base with twoouts and were stranded and one was thrown out trying to steal.
The caught stealing came on a controversial video review that went against the Brewers in the top of the ninth. With two outs, Pratt was on first and took off for second on an 0-1 pitch to pinch-hitter Antonio Vaughn. Pratt easily beat the tag by second baseman Palacois, but it was unclear whether Pratt's left hand/wrist had brushed against Palacois' glove as the fielder was catching the ball. Pratt was initially called safe but Tampa challenged the call. All of the replay angles except one (maybe) were useless in seeing if there had been any hint of contact. I was leaning towards no contact; there certainly wasn't enough evidence to overturn the call – but the call was overturned and Pratt was out.
Yandy Diaz singled to start the Rays sixth but he was doubled off first when Joey Aranda lined out to second. Simpson singled with two down in the seventh but the next batter grounded out. The Rays went in order in the eight, ninth, and tenth innings. In the eleventh, Diaz walked with two outs (the Rays' only walk of the game) and pinch-runner Jorge Mateo stole second. But Aranda flied to right to end the inning.
During that time, Milwaukee's Aaron Ashby recorded seven outs, setting a record with 18 consecutive scorless innings with in a single postseason. Ashby has also set a record with seven consecutive scoreless appearances of at least five outs; no other pitcher has done it more than five straight games.
Ian Seymour (who gave up the game-tying homer to Frelick in G2 when the Rays blew a 4-0 lead) was on the mound for the Rays in the twelfth. Pratt crushed a flat 2-2 offspeed pitch to left-center, an estimated 396 feet. It was the 29th extra-inning home run in World Series history, but the very first by a rookie. It was also the latest home run (by innings) in a potential WS clinching game; the previous four such dongs were hit in the tenth or eleventh innings. Pratt, who made his debut on June 16, is also the first rookie in WS history with four hits in a potential clinching game.
The Brewers had a chance to pad their lead when, with two outs, Jackson Chourio doubled on the 11th pitch of his plate appearance. Chouro fouled off seven pitches before doubling to the wall in right-center. Jake Bauers finished an 0-for-6 game by popping out to short.
And then it was Tampa's turn. Milwaukee's Antonio Senzatela, who pitched two perfect innings in Game 3, was the man on the mound. Caminero grounded a 1-1 pitch down the third base line. Ortiz, who had taken over for Hamilton in the ninth, fielded the ball on the line and made a long, one-hop throw to first. Bauers could not grab it on the short hop and the potential tying run was safe. Brewers manager Pat Murphy made a call to the pen and Drohan, who had pitched one inning in the NLCS, took the ball.
With Hicks at the plate, Drohan threw a strike on 0-1, but plate umpire James Hoye called it a ball. To my surprise, Contreras did not challenge the call. The count went to 2-2 and Hicks hit an opposite-field grounder through the infield and into left. Caminero, who was hobbling, somehow raced to third, sliding into the bag, or perhaps falling in a heap whose momentum carried him to the bag. Cedric Mullins pinch-ran. I was willing to accept a double play that tied the game to get rid of the baserunners and have two down. No one was listening to my plea.
DeLuca grounded a 1-2 pitch up the middle and into center field, scoring Mullins and tying the game at 3-3. Hicks stopped at second and he, too, was replaced by a pinch-runner, Nick Fortes. Simpson showed bunt a couple of times (making the two international announcers giddy with delight). On a 2-2 offering, Simpson lined a single to center. All three outfielders were playing in, so there was no chance to send Fortes. Tampa Bay had the bases loaded, and there was still no one out. As pinch-hitter Ben Williamson walked to the plate, I wondered what the chances were of a triple play. 0%, as it turned out.
Williamson chopped Drohan's first pitch into right field, somewhat towards the line. There was no play to be made, as Fortes scored and the Rays went wild.
Despite being injured and acting subdued in the twelfth inning, Junior Caminero recovered enough to deliberately draw attention to himself by celebrating by himself as his teammates congratulated each other in the infield.
My issue with these performative antics – and I'm thinking more of Caminero's home run stroll in ALCS Game 6 than this post-game nonsense – is that they are obviously planned ahead of time. These are not spontaneous acts of happiness. They are the opposite of a natural, in-the-moment reaction, and they are done solely for the cameras. Caminero is far from alone. It seems that every other athlete acts this way. I'm singling him out because (a) I watched ALCS 6 and (b) his actions were particularly obnoxious. I don't know when these performative acts first started, but I know the trend will die off at some point, and I look forward to that day. Hopefully, nothing worse replaces it.
It's also sad to see, when you understand these athletes seem incapable of simply enjoying themselves and their accomplishments without following some script they planned ahead of time of how they are going to "react" if something good happens. (Caminero's Game 2 dugout temper tantrum also seemed to be done in the hopes of being seen on camera as a "team leader". (It seems to have worked.) He could have easily made his points out of sight, without gesturing like he was hamming it up on a theater stage.) Perhaps Caminero's fall-to-his-knees-and-raise-his-hands-to-the-heavens gesture was not planned ahead of time. Regardless, it still shows that his very first thought after his team kept its season alive was not to celebrate as a member of that team, but to do something that would draw attention to himself, and himself alone, a stunt that says "me, me, me, look at me".
That is the topic of my latest Free Press column (now there are gift links!), here is one excerpt, noting this is a worst-case scenario not a prediction:
Yet current systems are likely to prove more robust than that suggests. For one thing, they use a variety of different methods of protection, including public key cryptography, AES, and cryptographic hash functions, the latter not qualifying as encryption per se. While it is possible that all could fall at the same time, that seems unlikely.
The more likely scenario, assuming this comes to pass at all, is that public key encryption would become vulnerable first, but the American economy would shift toward the more secure forms of communication, most of all those that have secure cryptographic keys already established. We would also work harder to substitute into the “post-quantum” methods of encryption that are being developed and already are being used in browsers.
The transition would be very costly, but the end result would not be total insecurity. Furthermore, today’s major financial institutions already have invested in various backup systems, including offline security methods and alternative payment-processing channels. Smaller businesses would face more serious problems of transition, although they also would be lesser targets in the first place. As for you the individual, you might have to show up in person at your bank to make a major transaction, and that requirement, imposed collectively, would strain our systems to the utmost.
A second layer of protection is that the new math techniques likely would not be available to everyone. They might require technical sophistication and a willingness to break the law in some very serious ways and also risk hacking retaliation. In addition, many math breakthroughs simply shave down the safety margins on systems, rather than breaking them altogether, and in those cases the criminals still might need a lot of computing power at considerable expense.
That situation is hardly the same as a complete and sudden “open season” on all methods of cryptography. Furthermore, some of the wrongdoers in this position, even assuming they felt they could get away with their crimes, might prefer to siphon off money slowly, rather than bring down the entire financial system, which could hurt their own net wealth as well.
A further source of protection is that the math breakthroughs might come in stages, rather than all at once. For an example from another part of math, OpenAI has proven a quasi-Riemann hypothesis, and Terry Tao told me recently that this may open the door to solving the Riemann hypothesis proper. We now have advance notice that the Riemann hypothesis may be proven (or less likely, disproven). In similar fashion, intermediate advances may signal that cryptographic protections are vulnerable. We thus would have some time to adjust…
The most likely scenarios would play out in terms of probabilities, as people deal with risk before any large-scale hacking attack would come. Right now the chance of public key cryptography breaking down is on the radar screens of a relatively small number of people. Imagine that some advances in math occur, and the more sophisticated market participants start seeing something like a 10 percent chance that some forms of encryption might be vulnerable. Perhaps without much fanfare, some people would start selling their bitcoin, or they might wire their money to more secure banks, or perhaps they would hold more gold and short the market. Some hackers would invest more in the activity, including hacks without advanced AI, under the philosophy of “harvest now, decrypt later,” pulling in classified or confidential materials that previously were not worth capturing. Overall, it would be like the early days of Covid, when major bad news was pending but only a few individuals were acting on it. That state of affairs could persist for some period of time.
In any case it would not be good.
And this: “If you have thoughts on my latest column, or questions about AI or anything else, join me for an AMA (Ask Me Anything) this week on The Free Press Forum.
Paid subscribers can submit questions now. Not a subscriber? For a limited time, you can get 20% off at thefp.com/tyler.”
The post AI hacking risks appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Raffi Krikorian, Mozilla’s CTO, joined Tim O’Reilly at our recent AI Codecon to talk about open source AI. Mozilla, of course, is the nonprofit that helped to define the open source revolution back in the late 1990s. Though its Firefox web browser was superseded as the market leader by Google Chrome, it played an essential role, along with Apache and the World Wide Web Consortium, in establishing the open standards of the web and keeping it from being dominated and enclosed by Microsoft, the dominant tech platform of that time. Now, Mozilla is one of the leading voices working to build an open, standards-based AI ecosystem.
Tim has long appreciated Raffi’s thoughtful, human-centered approach to technology. Raffi writes a newsletter called Owners Not Renters, whose message can be summed up by his statement that he doesn’t want a future with seven AGIs. He wants one with seven billion. He wants each of us to have an AI that we can trust with our secrets and that will look out for our interests, not an AI that’s optimized for the business model of its creators. In the early days of the web, we called the browser a user agent for a reason, Raffi said. It was on your side. It let you render pages however you wanted, managed your privacy and your cookies, and did its best to protect you from those who wanted to take advantage of web users. We need the same thing in the age of AI.
Raffi cited a paper in which researchers tested whether AI assistants could be trained to favor a company’s commercial interests over user welfare. In simulated flight-booking requests, 18 of 23 models recommended a more expensive sponsored option over a cheaper one more than half the time. It’s a hypothetical choice that we’ve seen play out time and time again, in industry after industry.
Open source AI is a big part of what it will take to get to Raffi’s vision. But sovereign AI loyal to each individual needs more than open source models alone. Raffi’s list of what has to be built around the model starts with memory, a place where your private data can live. It includes tool calling, so an agent can make a purchase or book a doctor’s appointment for you, the runtime environment where all of that runs, and the rules for how his agent talks to those working on behalf of others. It needs a harness. “That’s where evaluations happen. Guardrails happen, execution loops happen, tool calling happens, memory,” he explained. “All of that stuff is an opportunity, in my mind, of things that open source developers can be building.”
People hear the word “harness” and conclude that we need an open source version of whatever the proprietary labs are building. Tim asked Raffi whether a user-centered harness might do different things than those offered by the big labs. He agreed. The whole point of open source is for people to “scratch their own itch.” The ability to innovate without permission is the heart of the open source promise.
As a result, Mozilla wants to build a starting point. It aims to help the community define what an open memory protocol, a storage protocol, or authenticated tool calling with the right guardrails ought to look like. As Raffi noted, “Once we could define what those open standards look like, then a whole plethora of people can start playing and be interoperable. It’s basically. . .the internet all over again. We can build trillions of dollars of market cap on top of open protocols.”
Ease of use is still lacking, though. Mozilla’s 2026 State of Open Source AI report says open models are now within about 3% of the frontier, yet they don’t make it into production at the same rate as closed models. When Tim asked why, Raffi explained that open source is easy to release but hard to deploy. Developers still have to figure out hosting, provisioning, guardrails, and memory. With OpenAI’s or Anthropic’s API, you just hand over a credit card. What’s missing, he said, is the equivalent of a double-click installer for getting open source AI running inside an organization. But the companies that do the work to adopt open source AI are seeing big savings because open models are already good enough for most use cases. As Raffi put it, “You don’t need a Ferrari to manage your calendar.”
Raffi’s own daily agentic helper is Hermes running on GLM. He expects that Apple, Microsoft, or someone else will make this kind of agent into a consumer product in a couple of years, and that his mom will end up using it. For now, he said, we’re on the wrong part of the innovation curve, where you have to know how to code to get any of this working.
Tim disagreed. The industry goes through periods that are exciting for developers, creators, inventors, and companies trying to invent the future, and then it gets boring and a few big companies dominate it. We’re in the exciting part, he argued, before everything shakes out. As Raffi riffed, this is when we get to formalize what that future should look like.
Tim wasn’t sure that we’ll need a commercially supported version of the kind of “roll your own” agentic rigs now favored by independent developers. After all, neither desktop Linux nor OpenOffice turned out to matter anything like as much as open source developers of the time expected. Instead, open source became the foundation layer for a new generation of web-based applications. It’s hidden way down in the guts of Google, Amazon, Meta, and countless other applications we rely on today.
This is already beginning to happen again with AI. The Mozilla report says that as much as a third of real-world usage is already on open models, although only 4% of model-layer revenue made its way to the open source ecosystem. Tim called the discrepancy a feature rather than a bug, and Raffi agreed that the stat is misleading. As Tim pointed out, many of the most important technologies “create more value than they capture,” and he used Steve Baer’s concept “The Clothesline Paradox,” from a 1975 article in Stewart Brand’s CoEvolution Quarterly, to explain why we’re good at measuring value capture but not so good at measuring value creation.
Baer pointed out that if you put your clothes in the dryer, the energy you use is measured and counted, but if you hang them on the clothesline to be dried by the sun, the energy saved disappears from our accounting. This argument resonated with Tim in the early days of his open source advocacy. As he noted, it’s always bothered him that nobody seemed to recognize that open source software didn’t “win” in the same way as proprietary software. It won by becoming the foundation everyone else builds on.
Raffi’s comment that we’ve made a category error by treating AI as a product fits right in with this line of thinking. If an AI company goes out of business, its product disappears. If it changes its business model, it may yank features you depend on. It’s not just individuals who need sovereign AI. Countries are passing laws about where data can be processed and how it moves in and out, and some of those requirements may not be compatible with the way the big labs plan to monetize their technology. What those countries are asking for is infrastructure. A road outlasts the contractor who built it. Raffi thinks open, downloadable models are the only way to provide long-lasting foundational infrastructure.
According to OpenRouter stats, Chinese models now supply more routed tokens than American ones. Tim asked whether we should worry about that. Raffi said the problem isn’t China but market concentration. The leading open models are from China. The leading closed models are all American. Access to either can be cut off by an executive order. We saw a version of that in June, when Anthropic temporarily suspended access to its Fable models to comply with export controls. It’s a problem that both the leading proprietary models and the leading open-weight models are each concentrated in a single country.
Diversity is one foundation of resilience. Raffi argues, for instance, that hospitals should all download a local model as a backup. None of us would run an important computer without an uninterruptible power supply, so why would a hospital doing triage with AI rely on a single intelligence provider? There are a lot of possible rug pulls. The government could restrict open source or restrict the frontier models. Having a backup plan is a good idea.
Safety is also part of the foundation. During the Q&A, an audience member asked about the recent sandbox escapes at OpenAI and Anthropic. Raffi joked that the best part was watching everyone try to one-up each other with accounts of how powerful and hard to control their models are. But he agreed that guardrails are actually a hard problem. Keeping personally identifiable information from leaking out through an LLM call means looking for much more than Social Security numbers. Eventually we’ll have models defending models, but the foundational frameworks for guardrails aren’t good enough yet. (NVIDIA’s safety platform announcement, released after Raffi and Tim’s conversation, suggests that better guardrails need to be implemented outside the model.)
Tim opened AI Codecon by noting that open and closed systems have always coexisted, and that the idea that one of them will win is a mistake. Closed systems, like Apple’s, Google’s, OpenAI’s, and Anthropic’s, can optimize for ordinary people and deliver value to billions. Open systems are better for innovation and sovereignty, and for pushing technology into new countries and new markets.
Raffi closed the conversation by observing that a well-tuned harness can improve model performance by as much as 20% on some coding tasks. You don’t have to be a machine learning engineer to make a difference at that layer.