Vulnerability in FIFA’s Network
FIFA’s network was vulnerable to anyone with even minimal access.
FIFA’s network was vulnerable to anyone with even minimal access.
Hartley and Kleiner have a new Fed Minneapolis working paper surveying workers around the world to measure occupational licensing by country. In the United States, occupational licensing has increased substantially over time, so one might expect licensing to rise with income. Their headline result is the opposite: occupational licensing is negatively correlated with GDP per capita. Many developing countries such as India, South Africa, and the Philippines have a lot of occupational licensing while Denmark, Sweden and France have relatively little. Similarly, countries which rate poorly in measures of government quality, such as regulatory quality, political stability, the rule of law, and corruption have more occupational licensing.

I do have some concerns, however. The figure for India of 42% of workers requiring a government license seems too high. Admittedly this is the home of the License Raj but I worry about the survey results. In order to mark a surveyed worker as requiring an occupational license HK require that the worker say that a) they have a license and b) a license is required to work in their profession. But in India there are many workers who do not have a license and a license is required to work in their profession–HK, however, consider these workers confused and drop them from the analysis. That is appropriate for a developed country where there aren’t many illegal unlicensed workers but, as the authors later discuss, informality is very high in India so working illegally is not uncommon.
Including these workers would make the true India figure even higher than HK report but I think with such a high degree of informality we also have to wonder whether survey responders in India really are responding the same way as in Germany. Perhaps they are reporting a license isn’t really required since very few workers have one. In India, for example, some 60% of “licensed” drivers have an fake or invalid license and many have no license at all so maybe workers are just reporting the facts on the ground.
Within the United States, professions are regulated in some states but not others—Louisiana, for instance, requires florists to be licensed. (Do license-holding Louisiana florists produce better, safer arrangements? I don’t think so.) Given this variation even within a single country, we’d expect considerable variation across countries too. Multiple independent surveys—not just HK—confirm that Denmark, Sweden, and even France have less occupational licensing than the United States. Since these countries have high state capacity, we can rule out the hypothesis that licensing exists for safety or quality. The implication is clear: occupational licensing is often about rent-seeking, not quality assurance.
Addendum: See also my review of Allensworth’s The Licensing Racket which finds that licensing board spend most of their time and effort on regulating entry rather than quality and my paper on the surprise delicensing of occupational licensing in the funeral industry in Colorado.
The post Occupational Licensing Around the World appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Tech titans claim the genre inspired them. But all they’ve done is graft their politics onto stories of a better future
- by Ali Rıza Taşkale
I had long wondered about this:
Performance metrics can misalign individual and organizational incentives. We study a clean case: an NBA player holding the ball as a quarter expires must choose between a low-probability “heave” that can only help his team and protecting his shooting statistics. We model this decision as a metric-driven principal-agent problem and test it using play-by-play data from 2015-16 through 2025-26, exploiting the 2025-26 Heave Rule, which removed the individual statistical penalty for end-of-quarter heaves. Before the reform, players heaved on 58 percent of opportunities; reluctance was concentrated among efficient shooters and players in contract years, as the model predicts. After the reform, the heave rate jumped to 94 percent, the efficiency gradient collapsed, and difference-indifferences estimates using the untreated fourth quarter confirm the effect is sharp, immediate, and smallest among the players with the least efficiency to protect. Removing a metric distortion realigned individual behavior with team objectives almost completely.
That is from a recent paper by James W. Kemper and Noah Liptack,titled “Overcoming Misaligned Incentives: Evidence from the NBA Heave Rule.” Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The post Incentives matter, installment #1637 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Religious life, I think one thing we’ll see, and this is, again, pretty soon, it won’t be hard to create your own religion. I’m not sure many people will do this. I don’t think most people will. But they’ll be like accretions to the religions we have now. And I think with Fable 5, you could even do this already. Like, you ever actually try to read through the Hindu sacred texts? They’re pretty naughty, pretty detailed, quite long. Many parts are great and dramatic. I wouldn’t say they’re smoothly or evenly written. Not all of it is well written. They have significant meaning. For some people, a lot of people consume them through stories they’re told with their children. It’s not that every Hindu is like reading through the whole Ramayana. That’s all fine. But if you can sit down with, you know, the latest quad, whatever, and create your own set of sacred books. Again, I think like 2% of people are going to do this. Not most people. People have other interests, other hobbies. A lot of people aren’t religious. But if 2% of people do this, you end up with a lot of new religious accretions. Some of them will be totally new religions. But I think a lot will just be like, here are my sacred books of Christianity, or my add-ons to the Book of Mormon, or my whatever’s. There’ll be this extreme religious diversity. I don’t know, too much, too little. I think it will be quite different.
Again, that is from my recent DeepMind talk. Perhaps two percent is too high, and only a fraction of one percent of the population will do this, with agents. You still end up with a great deal of religious accretion and innovation.
The post Creating your own religion in an AI-drenched world appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Editor’s Note: Today’s story is the answer to the July Puzzler.
Call it an alluvial face-off. On the southern end of Severny Island in the Russian Arctic, rivers rush down from rugged terrain flanking a broad valley. Upon reaching flatter ground, the waters slow and distribute sediment into cone-shaped features called alluvial fans. Several appear in opposing orientations alongside a braided river in this Landsat 9 image.
Severny Island (Ostrov Severnyy) is a mountainous, uninhabited landmass in the frigid high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Part of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, the island is largely covered in glacial ice. Some glaciers, especially in the north, terminate in the sea, while others end on land, feeding meltwater into glacial streams.
Sediment-laden streams, along with the island’s topography, create favorable conditions for the formation of alluvial fans. The features typically appear at the base of steep mountain ranges, where narrow river channels open onto flatter terrain. There, rivers can slow, divide into smaller channels, and deposit sediment. Over time, the channels migrate back and forth to build up fan-shaped deposits. Dueling fans line several northwest-southeast-trending valleys in the wider view below.
Seasonal snowmelt and glacial runoff likely keep Severny’s rivers supplied with ample fan-building material. Hydrologists note that higher river flows during the warmer months, driven by snowmelt, can carry more sediment out of the mountains. Glaciers also produce large volumes of eroded material as they grind downslope, some of which flushes out in meltwater.
Smaller, land-terminating mountain glaciers, like those on southern Severny Island, are particularly prone to melting as the atmosphere warms. Severny’s ice is relatively understudied due to its remoteness, but satellite observations give scientists an understanding of its health. Recent analyses incorporating digital elevation models found that land-terminating glaciers across the Novaya Zemlya archipelago thinned during the 2000s and 2010s, especially at lower elevations.
NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Lindsey Doermann.
Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

During the 2022 summer melt season, sediment plumes and fractured sea ice traced swirling eddies in a branch of the…

Icy, isolated Peter I Island stirred up a show in the atmosphere off the West Antarctic coast.

Drifting sea ice fragments near Alaska’s Saint Lawrence and Nunivak islands and colorful water around the Yukon Delta heralded the…
The post Fans of the Arctic appeared first on NASA Science.

Reditus Space, a startup developing recoverable and reusable spacecraft, has completed its first vehicle for launch later this year.
The post Reditus Space completes first reentry vehicle appeared first on SpaceNews.

Voyager Technologies has completed its acquisition of lunar infrastructure company Astrobotic Technology, weeks after Astrobotic won two NASA lunar lander missions.
The post Voyager completes acquisition of Astrobotic appeared first on SpaceNews.

Development in space is gaining serious momentum. Impressively, NASA recently unveiled plans for a new moon base — the first concrete step toward permanently moving human civilization off Earth. However, as we […]
The post Getting ready for lunar planetary defense appeared first on SpaceNews.

HELSINKI — China confirmed a methalox Long March 10C as its commercial workhorse following its first successful booster recovery, while injecting fresh capital into commercial rocket ventures. The China Academy […]
The post China lines up methalox Long March 10C as commercial workhorse after first booster recovery appeared first on SpaceNews.

UIWANG, South Korea, July 14 — FLEXELL SPACE, a developer of next-generation space solar solutions, announced that it has completed a $20 million Series A funding round. Completed approximately two […]
The post Flexell Space raises $20 Million in Series A round appeared first on SpaceNews.

European government space spending jumped 12% to about $15.4 billion in 2025, according to a July 13 European Space Agency report, bucking a 3% global decline on the back of rising national defense budgets.
The post Defense spending lifts Europe’s space economy appeared first on SpaceNews.

The Space Development Agency awarded the companies a combined $1.75 billion for next batch of missile-tracking satellites
The post L3Harris, Sierra Space to build 36 satellites to expand U.S. missile-tracking network appeared first on SpaceNews.

WARSAW, Poland — Poland will host the first European Space Agency (ESA) center located in an eastern flank member state, one that will be focused on civil security and resilience. […]
The post Poland to host new ESA center as government boosts investments in space appeared first on SpaceNews.

BENGALURU, India / July 15, 2026 — QOSMIC has raised $3.33 million in seed funding co-led by Accel and Prosus, with participation from South Park Commons, ARTPARK, and angel investor […]
The post Accel and Prosus backed QOSMIC raises $3.33 Million to Build Optical Ground Stations for the Orbital Data Economy appeared first on SpaceNews.
We’ve discussed a number of times that the high-profile/high-violence occupations of blue cities in 2025 and early 2026 were never designed to maximize deportations. They were meant to overawe and terrorize the city’s inhabitants and the sovereign state governments of those jurisdictions. The public blowback became too extreme and then, along with canning Kristi Noem, DHS/ICE switched to focusing on deportation numbers without most of the high-visibility operations which weren’t really aimed at deportation numbers in the first place. But there have been an increasing number of reports over the last few weeks suggesting that ICE/DHS is intensifying its efforts and upping the number of arrests and detentions. It seems highly likely, though not certain, that the two recent ICE-involved shooting fatalities in the last week — one in Houston and another just today in Maine — are tied to that intensified push for deportation arrest numbers. ICE agents tend to be poorly trained and operate in a culture of violence and impunity. So events like these could happen at any time. But keep an eye on the relationship between the two things. DHS/ICE has been trying to intensify its efforts while avoiding the headlines which were so damaging last winter. But the rapid resorts to fatal violence and the culture of impunity that sustains it, so embedded within Trump Era ICE’s culture, seems to be breaking through.
Ashley Belanger, reporting for Ars Technica back in August 2025:
After a public outburst over Grok’s App Store rankings, on Monday, Elon Musk followed through on his threat to sue Apple and OpenAI.
At first, Musk appeared fixated on ChatGPT consistently topping Apple’s “Must Have” app list — which Grok has never made — claiming Apple seemed to preference OpenAI, an Apple partner, over all chatbot rivals. But Musk’s filing shows that the X and xAI owner isn’t just trying to push for more Grok downloads on iPhones — he’s concerned that Apple and OpenAI have teamed up to completely dash his “everything app” dreams, which was the reason he bought Twitter.
For what it’s worth, I just looked at the App Store editorially-curated “Popular iPhone Apps” list, and ChatGPT is in the top spot. Given the lawsuit Apple filed against OpenAI last week, I’d say this is pretty good anecdata that these editorial decisions in the App Store aren’t driven by favoritism. The top 10 downloads list for free iPhone apps currently looks like this (for me here in the U.S. App Store):
There are some real winners on that list. But only one AI app: ChatGPT.
Musk alleges that the top downloads list is crooked too. That’s just projection. If Musk ran a popular App Store he’d put his thumb on the scale to make sure his own apps always top the list. That’s what he’s done with his personal account, and accounts aligned with his politics, on Twitter/X. Because that’s what he would do, he thinks that’s what Apple does. I really do think he believes the App Store’s top download lists are fixed, and that Grok is on the wrong side of the fix. Crooks think everyone is crooked. It’s just one of several ways that Musk is not hooked up right.
I suspect, though, that he’s no longer worried that Apple is putting its thumb on the scale to favor OpenAI. Maybe he should never-mind this lawsuit.

We had a solid first week of this year’s Annual TPM Journalism Fund Drive. But we have a long way to go to get to our goal of raising $500,000 and, if possible, a bit more. If you haven’t taken a moment yet to contribute, please take just 90 seconds or so out of your Monday midday routine and join us now. (If you have, thank you so much).
Just click here. I know from experience that a big bar to contributing is just the few minutes of hassle of dealing with the mechanics of it. But we’ve made it super easy. Members don’t even have to take out their credit cards. Just click, choose a contribution amount, hit send and you’re done. This is a critical part of what keeps TPM alive and vital. We will put every dollar to good use.
So for all I know this is mere rumor, but sources are telling me that Judy Bullockus, the longtime Capo Unified School Board member and a woman who freely dropped the n-word like Tupac at the House of Blues, is likely not running for re-election. Which isn’t surprising, because the upcoming roasting (from this site and others) would be intense and unforgiving.
Alas, supposedly in her place rises Linda Shepard.
Yes, Linda Shepard!
Everyone! Linda Shepard!!!
[crickets]
If you’re scratching your head and wondering, “Who the crappity crap is Linda Shepard?”—you’re not alone. Linda Shepard is an arch-conservative former Mission Viejo City Council candidate whose political career flamed out like a Steve Pisarkiewicz spiral (you’re gonna have to look that one up on your own). She’s v-e-r-y hard-right, v-e-r-y rigid, v-e-r-y not fun, and gives off a sorta “Back in the day, when milk was a dollar …” vibes. She pops up in the notations from the May 23, 2023 Mission Viejo City Council meeting, and not in a way that makes a sane person smile …
She also, confusingly, once ate at the Cheesecake Factory dressed as the lead character from The Handmaid’s Tale. And it wasn’t Halloween—just a night out for the Shepards …
I digress.
I don’t like what I’m seeing here. What I’m smelling here. The sniff test results are brutal. Lisa Davis, the awful School Board President/MAGA Warrior/Religious Zealot, has been desperately trying to fill the board with like-minded right wingers who want God in school, diversity out of school, an isn’t-Jesus-the-bestest! superintendent and prayer warriors leading the way. In this video, Shepard says, “I stand for family values”—oftentimes clumsy OC code for white mom, white dad, white kids, straight as arrows. She also boasts about once serving as the assistant comptroller at Taco Bell—and lord knows most of us have experienced the post-Cantina Crispy Chicken Taco Meal Deal shit fits explosion.
Anyhow, if/when Linda Shepard officially announces her run, we’ll delve more into this one and bring the heat.
But, fuck.
It’s exhausting.
PS: I’m betting $100 Linda Shepard is the mom who hands out raisins on Halloween.
PPS: Here’s ol Linda Shepard (second from right) at a recent event, posing with Sonja Shaw (second from left)—the monster who attended a high school track event to berate the parents of a trans athlete. The woman in the pink is Mari Barke, one of the great destroyers of normal education. On the far left is Brenda Lebsack (a name of dreams)—an anti-trans crusader and the world’s leading expert on lebsacks.
PPPS: Linda was all in on Judy. But when Judy dropped the n-word, not a peep. Not. A. Single. Peep.
The United States is currently in the grip of an outbreak of the Cyclospora parasite, which causes severe diarrhea and has sickened more than 3,000 people across the U.S. Last August, Aria Bendix of NBC News reported that on July 1, 2025, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), overseen by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., would no longer track infections caused by cyclospora and five other common causes of foodborne illnesses.
The CDC, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and ten state health departments covering about 54 million people have run a program called the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, or FoodNet, since 1995. Until last July 1 it monitored eight pathogens. Now it monitors only salmonella and toxin-producing E. coli.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said then: “The health and safety of the American people is the Administration’s utmost priority. USDA, HHS, FDA, and the CDC will continue to cooperate and maintain the highest vigilance to safeguard our food supply against pathogens.” But director of the Institute for Food Safety and Nutrition Security at George Washington University Barbara Kowalcyk called the decision to reduce FoodNet surveillance “very disappointing,” saying, “A lot of the work that I and many, many, many, many other people have put into improving food safety over the past 20 or 30 years is just going away.”
Meanwhile, the New World screwworm continues to spread in the U.S. and Central America, where Melody Schreiber of The Guardian reported today conservation cameras are showing the infestations spreading rapidly in deer, jaguars, peccaries, and even porcupines.
While Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has repeatedly blamed former president Joe Biden for the arrival of the flesh-eating maggots, three former officials from the Agriculture Department, as well as another source, told Marcia Brown of Politico in June that Trump administration officials held up funding for the construction of a facility crucial to slowing the spread of the pest and also delayed funding for a $100 million research initiative to find new ways to stop the screwworm.
Trump administration cuts to staffing at the USDA meant that in 2025 the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service staffing dropped by 25%. More than half of the area veterinarians retired or resigned.
Things aren’t going terribly well internationally, either.
Despite the repeated assertions of administration officials that the U.S. “holds all the cards” in its war with Iran, Edward Wong, Michael Crowley, and Eric Schmitt of the New York Times reported today that the memorandum of understanding Trump signed on June 17, 2026, formalized Iran’s power over the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. analysts and officials told the reporters that the agreement was dangerously vague and that Iran has interpreted its provision saying that Iran would “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels” through the strait as giving Iran control of the waterway.
As Iran has attacked ships trying to get through the strait near the Oman shoreline, Trump has ordered airstrikes on Iran. Over the weekend, Iran’s Navy said it was closing the strait “until the end of U.S. interference in the region.”
Today Tara Copp and Alex Horton of the Washington Post reported allegations from soldiers who survived the Iranian attack on Port Shuaiba in Kuwait that killed six U.S. military personnel and wounded dozens more that the generals in command ignored intelligence that Port Shuaiba was a probable target. The site was not adequately protected against drones, as scouts noted before the war when the Pentagon began to move troops off large bases onto smaller facilities to make them harder for Iran to target. Port Shuaiba’s emergency warning system wasn’t working, and the facility had no coverings to conceal personnel or hamper drones. Then troops were deployed there without weapons.
After the strikes, wounded soldiers sent to Germany’s Landstuhl Regional Medical Center discovered that they had neither been listed in the military’s database as seriously injured nor been recorded on the flight manifest as medical evacuees, so could not be admitted as patients. Doctors treated them as outpatients and sent them to barracks where they waited a week to be sent back to the U.S.
In June, Jonah Kaplan and Michael Kaplan of CBS News reported that wounded soldiers and their families say the Army downplayed their injuries. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told reporters in March that almost 90% of the injuries 400 service members had sustained had been minor and that the wounded soldiers had returned to duty. One man the Army classified as “not seriously injured” sustained extensive shrapnel wounds, a concussion, hearing and vision loss, and lung damage. Another underwent multiple surgeries to remove shrapnel.
Wounded soldiers told Kaplan and Kaplan that the duty for which they had been cleared was an active order to recuperate from injuries in a specialized recovery unit.
An Army spokesperson explained that the classifications were military designations. The spokesperson explained that the Army classifies soldiers as “seriously injured” or “very seriously injured” only if they are at risk of dying from their wounds within the next 72 hours.
Tonight the U.S. military launched new strikes against Iran. In a brief interview with Reuters over the weekend, Trump said: “We’re beating them up.”
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) died Saturday night at age 71, apparently from a rupture of his aorta due to cardiovascular disease. Graham had just returned from a trip to Kyiv, Ukraine, where he met with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky. A former officer in the Judge Advocate General’s Corps (JAG Corps) in the U.S. Air Force, Graham was a staunch supporter of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and of Ukraine. In that, he stood apart from Trump.
In his earlier years in Congress, Graham was an establishment Republican who pushed for the impeachment of President Bill Clinton but was willing to work with Democrats personally. He once said of then-senator Joe Biden of Delaware: “If you can’t admire Joe Biden as a person, you’ve got a problem. He’s the nicest person I’ve ever met in politics. As good a man as God ever created.”
He objected to the takeover of the Republican Party by the MAGA Republicans. In December 2015 he called then-candidate Donald J. Trump “a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot” and said: “He doesn’t represent my party. He doesn’t represent the values that the men and women who wear the uniform are fighting for.... I don’t think he has a clue about anything. He’s just trying to get his numbers up and get the biggest reaction he can.” “You know how you make America great again?” he said, “Tell Donald Trump to go to hell.”
In 2016, Graham said he voted for Independent Evan McMullin because “Voting for Hillary Clinton was always a non-starter and I couldn’t go where Donald Trump wanted to take the USA & [the Republican Party].”
But after a meeting with Trump in March 2017, Graham became a loyalist. As chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he ushered through Trump’s judicial nominees, and his fierce defense of Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearings for a position on the Supreme Court has been credited with enabling Kavanaugh’s nomination to go through despite accusations of sexual assault.
Graham was a staunch enough Trump supporter that he urged Trump not to concede the 2020 presidential election because “[i]f Republicans don’t challenge and change the U.S. election system, there will never be another Republican president elected again.” He called Georgia secretary of state Brad Raffensperger over the votes in Georgia; Raffensperger believed Graham was suggesting he should throw out legal ballots.
Graham briefly turned against Trump after the president tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, but then he came around to Trump again, supporting his 2024 presidential run.
Graham’s sudden death came as a surprise, but Trump was able to find Graham useful one last time. Although Graham’s top priority appears to have been working with Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) to push more stringent economic sanctions on Russia, Trump told Kristen Welker of Meet the Press that he had spoken to Graham just before he died. According to Trump, Graham “said, ‘We’re all set for the SAVE America Act,’” the voter suppression act that Trump wants so badly. Trump continued: “He was pushing the SAVE America act like crazy…. And I said, ‘Well, we’re gonna get it done, Lindsey. We’re gonna get it done.’”
On May 3, 2016, Senator Lindsey Graham posted on social media: “If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed…….and we will deserve it.”
—
Notes:
https://www.cdc.gov/foodnet/about/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/12/new-world-screwworm-infestation-cattle-industry
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/17/trump-reviews-slowed-screwworm-response-00964448
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wounded-soldiers-families-accuse-army-downplaying-war-injuries/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/07/12/us-iran-war-strikes-strait-hormuz/90896753007/
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/lindsey-graham-donald-trump-cellphone-235778
YouTube:
X:
HunterBiden/status/2076290915602182414
Bluesky:
atrupar.com/post/3mqhb63mids23
I often find myself wanting to run a quick Python tool inside of GitHub Actions using uvx name-of-tool - but I don't want that to result in a network request to PyPI every time the workflow runs. I want the tool to be fetched the first time and then reused from the GitHub Actions cache for subsequent runs.
I've tried unsuccessfully to find patterns I like for this in the past, especially given the standard pattern in GitHub Actions of using the hashed contents of a file - often pyproject.toml or requirements.txt - as a key for the cache.
This is usually a good pattern, but for simple scripts I don't want to have to maintain an additional file just to get the cache to work correctly.
Today (with the help of GPT-5.6 Sol) I finally found a pattern I like.
My goal was to be able to drop uvx name-of-tool into a GitHub Actions workflow anywhere I like, while still trusting that the tool would be cached between builds - and could be cache-invalidated if I needed to.
The key turned out to be the UV_EXCLUDE_NEWER environment variable. This works the same as uvx --exclude-newer DATE, allowing you to tell uv to install the most recent package as-of a specific date.
That date can then also be used as part of the cache key for GitHub Actions! This means you can set the date in the script once and get a repeatable set of installed versions for all of the tools. Then any time you want to bust the cache you can increment the date in that one place:
name: Run tools
on:
workflow_dispatch:
env:
# Bump this date to allow newer package releases and a fresh cache:
UV_EXCLUDE_NEWER: "2026-07-12"
jobs:
test:
runs-on: ubuntu-latest
steps:
- name: Install uv and restore cache
id: setup-uv
uses: astral-sh/setup-uv@11f9893b081a58869d3b5fccaea48c9e9e46f990 # v8.3.2
with:
enable-cache: true
cache-dependency-glob: ""
cache-suffix: "tools-${{ env.UV_EXCLUDE_NEWER }}"
prune-cache: false
- name: Require cache-only uv on cache hits
if: steps.setup-uv.outputs.cache-hit == 'true'
run: echo "UV_OFFLINE=1" >> "$GITHUB_ENV"
- name: Run sqlite-utils
run: uvx sqlite-utils --version
- name: Run datasette
run: uvx --pre datasette --version
- name: Run LLM
run: uvx llm --versionastral-sh/setup-uv is Astral's official Action for getting uv. I'm annoyed that it appears to hit Astral's own releases.astral.sh site every time it runs but if that's how they want it to work I guess that's on them.
Those settings:
enable-cache: true turns on GitHub Actions cachingcache-dependency-glob: "" disables the feature where it looks for pyproject.toml or similar to use as a cache keycache-suffix: "tools-${{ env.UV_EXCLUDE_NEWER }}" is the bit that uses our single UV_EXCLUDE_NEWER value for the cache keyprune-cache: false is necessary because Astral default to deliberately pruning your cache of any downloaded wheels, the exact opposite of what I want!I should note that my preferences here go directly against what uv advises:
However, in continuous integration environments, persisting pre-built wheels may be undesirable. With uv, it turns out that it's often faster to omit pre-built wheels from the cache (and instead re-download them from the registry on each run).
Personally I'd rather suffer from very slightly slower CI builds (presumably because GitHub's cache restore operations are slower than fresh installations from PyPI?) than optimize my builds by hitting the PyPI CDN for every tool execution.
This block here enforces that the cache is used correctly:
- name: Require cache-only uv on cache hits
if: steps.setup-uv.outputs.cache-hit == 'true'
run: echo "UV_OFFLINE=1" >> "$GITHUB_ENV"
Setting that UV_OFFLINE=1 environment variable causes uvx tool-name to fail if the tool has not been previously installed. We only run that if we got a cache hit from the GitHub Actions cache.
This means that if you add a new tool to the workflow without also bumping the UV_EXCLUDE_NEWER date you'll get an error.
So, it being high day, I put in to shore and to bed for two hours just, and so up again, and with the Storekeeper and Clerk of the Rope-yard up and down the Dock and Rope-house, and by and by mustered the Yard, and instructed the Clerks of the Cheque in my new way of Callbook, and that and other things done, to the Hill-house, and there we eat something, and so by barge to Rochester, and there took coach hired for our passage to London, and Mrs. Allen, the clerk of the Rope-yard’s wife with us, desiring her passage, and it being a most pleasant and warm day, we got by four o’clock home. In our way she telling us in what condition Becky Allen is married against all expectation a fellow that proves to be a coxcomb and worth little if any thing at all, and yet are entered into a way of living above their condition that will ruin them presently, for which, for the lady’s sake, I am much troubled.
Home I found all well there, and after dressing myself, I walked to the Temple; and there, from my cozen Roger, hear that the judges have this day brought in their answer to the Lords, That the articles against my Lord Chancellor are not Treason; and to-morrow they are to bring in their arguments to the House for the same.
This day also the King did send by my Lord Chamberlain to the Lords, to tell them from him, that the most of the articles against my Lord Chancellor he himself knows to be false. Thence by water to Whitehall, and so walked to St. James’s, but missed Mr. Coventry.
I met the Queen-Mother walking in the Pell Mell, led by my Lord St. Alban’s. And finding many coaches at the Gate, I found upon enquiry that the Duchess is brought to bed of a boy.
And hearing that the King and Queen are rode abroad with the Ladies of Honour to the Park, and seeing a great crowd of gallants staying here to see their return, I also staid walking up and down, and among others spying a man like Mr. Pembleton (though I have little reason to think it should be he, speaking and discoursing long with my Lord D’Aubigne), yet how my blood did rise in my face, and I fell into a sweat from my old jealousy and hate, which I pray God remove from me.
By and by the King and Queen, who looked in this dress (a white laced waistcoat and a crimson short pettycoat, and her hair dressed ci la negligence) mighty pretty; and the King rode hand in hand with her. Here was also my Lady Castlemaine rode among the rest of the ladies; but the King took, methought, no notice of her; nor when they ’light did any body press (as she seemed to expect, and staid for it) to take her down, but was taken down by her own gentleman. She looked mighty out of humour, and had a yellow plume in her hat (which all took notice of), and yet is very handsome, but very melancholy: nor did any body speak to her, or she so much as smile or speak to any body. I followed them up into White Hall, and into the Queen’s presence, where all the ladies walked, talking and fiddling with their hats and feathers, and changing and trying one another’s by one another’s heads, and laughing. But it was the finest sight to me, considering their great beautys and dress, that ever I did see in all my life. But, above all, Mrs. Stewart in this dress, with her hat cocked and a red plume, with her sweet eye, little Roman nose, and excellent taille, is now the greatest beauty I ever saw, I think, in my life; and, if ever woman can, do exceed my Lady Castlemaine, at least in this dress nor do I wonder if the King changes, which I verily believe is the reason of his coldness to my Lady Castlemaine.
Here late, with much ado I left to look upon them, and went away, and by water, in a boat with other strange company, there being no other to be had, and out of him into a sculler half to the bridge, and so home and to Sir W. Batten, where I staid telling him and Sir J. Minnes and Mrs. Turner, with great mirth, my being frighted at Chatham by young Edgeborough, and so home to supper and to bed, before I sleep fancying myself to sport with Mrs. Stewart with great pleasure.
“Buy a big house and live in the suburbs” — Tracy Chapman
“Outside suburbia’s sprawling everywhere/ I don’t want to go, baby” — Kim Wilde
I grew up in the suburbs, and when I got the chance, I moved to a big city and never looked back.1 I love living in dense, built-up urban areas, with great train systems and tons of restaurants and shops. Japanese cities are the best in the world, and I’ve written plenty of posts about what makes them so great. But you don’t have to be Japan in order to create amazing metropolises — New York City, Paris, Istanbul, Seoul, London, etc. are all excellent places to live.
I’m far from the only person who feels this way. Rents in New York City are absolutely insane — $5300 a month to live in Manhattan, $4350 to live in Brooklyn. That’s partly because there are a lot of good jobs in NYC — it’s a cluster for industries like finance and media. But more and more, Americans move to cities because they like living there.
As early as 2000, economists were starting to find that “amenities” were driving America’s urban revival even more than job opportunities were. Couture and Handbury (2020) find that wanting to be close to restaurants and nightlife explains about 40% of the trend of young, high-earning, college-educated people2 moving to cities in recent decades. Furthermore, the stereotype of dense cities as crime-ridden and unsafe is just wrong — NYC has one of the lowest violent crime rates among big cities in America.
I’ve been a relentless advocate of building more dense, walkable cities in America. Not only would this raise GDP (because of improved clustering effects), but it would let Americans live where they want. The demand for life in cities like NYC exceeds America’s willingness to supply these environments; this raises rents in places like NYC, which pushes a lot of people into the suburbs who don’t want to be there. Forcing those city types into the ‘burbs raises rents for people who like suburbia. Basically, everyone would be happy if America had a few more Manhattans and a lot more Brooklyns.
Yet among my fellow urbanists and YIMBYs, I often encounter disdain or outright hostility toward the suburbs that define most of America’s present urban landscape. This isn’t just an urbanist thing, of course — my own parents had a lot of negative things to say about suburbia, and ranting against its sterility and boredom is a staple of pop culture. But the criticisms are just way overdone; the suburbs are not the isolating, lonely hell that they’re often made out to be.
And I think that the constant ranting against the suburbs complicates the quest for denser cities. It creates the suspicion that urbanists and YIMBYs want to make the whole nation into Manhattan. Nothing like that could ever happen, of course; even Japan is mostly suburbanized. But painting the quest for denser metropolises as an attack on suburbia makes everything needlessly confrontational, polarized, and zero-sum.
So I think it’s helpful to go through some reasons why the suburbs aren’t actually as bad as they say.
One of the most persistent myths about suburbia is that it forces you to commute a long way to work:
It’s possible, of course, for something like this to be true. If cities refuse to build housing (which they do), and if jobs are concentrated in the city center (thanks to clustering effects or agglomeration or whatever), then people will be forced to live far out on the periphery and endure punishing commutes to get to work.
The thing is, it’s not true. Despite greater sprawl, Americans have some of the shortest commutes in the developed world. This is from the OECD:

Why do Americans take less time to commute to work? One reason is that it’s not just our homes that are scattered and dispersed; our workplaces are too. America’s urban agglomerations are polycentric; they’re not just one central business district surrounded by concentric rings of houses. Suburbanites tend to live near where they work.
Another reason Americans have shorter commutes is that cars are almost always faster than public transit at getting you from point A to point B. This isn’t just true in places like America and Canada that are built with cars in mind. It’s true in places like Stockholm and Amsterdam that were built to be transit-friendly — even when you take parking time into account. In fact, it’s not even close. This is from “Disparities in travel times between car and transit: Spatiotemporal patterns in cities”, by Liao et al. (2020):
We use real-world data to make realistic estimates of travel time by car and by PT [Public Transit] and compare their performance by time of day and by travel distance across cities. Our results suggest that using PT takes on average 1.4–2.6 times longer than driving a car. The share of area where travel time favours PT over car use is very small: 0.62% (0.65%), 0.44% (0.48%), 1.10% (1.22%) and 1.16% (1.19%) for the daily average (and during peak hours) for São Paulo, Sydney, Stockholm, and Amsterdam, respectively…A systematic comparison between these two modes shows that the average travel time disparity is surprisingly similar across cities…for travel distances less than 3 km, then increases rapidly but quickly stabilises at around 2. [emphasis mine]
And here’s a chart, showing that public transit takes more time whether you’re measuring in terms of the length of the trip or the percent of the population reached:

That doesn’t mean cars are better than public transit. Cars cost more, and they require a lot more land to move the same number of people. But because they take you directly from point to point, instead of making a circuit and stopping periodically, they get you there faster.
Of course, commuting by car and commuting by train or bus aren’t the same experience. Driving gives you more privacy, but it forces you to pay attention to the road instead of reading or playing games. Traffic can be frustrating, but so can jostling and bumping strangers for a space on the train. You’re a lot less likely to be sexually harassed in your car, but you’re more likely to die in an accident than to be murdered on the bus. And so on.3
But the point is, cars are not a cost forced upon suburbanites in exchange for their large houses, as some urbanists believe. They are a thing people want in and of themselves, and are willing to pay a lot of money for, all over the world. The convenience, sense of freedom, and privacy cars offer is a benefit of suburbia to many people, in addition to the large house and cheap land. Car ownership is a form of wealth.
Again and again, I hear urbanists declare that the suburbs are lonely and isolating. It certainly sounds logical. In a city, you’re walking past other people constantly — on the street, on the train, in cafes and restaurants. In suburbia, you’re shut at home inside your giant house or alone in the metal shell of your car. How could suburbia not be more lonely than the big city?
But in survey after survey, we don’t find this to be the case. Here’s Abshire et al. (2022):
Data were obtained from 616 adults (278 from small rural, 100 from large rural, 98 from suburban, and 140 from urban areas) from June 2018 through October 2019…Mean unadjusted loneliness scores were lower in suburban compared to urban areas…The prevalence of loneliness was 50.7%, 59.0%, 40.8%, and 54.3% in small rural, large rural, suburban, and urban areas, respectively. Suburban living was associated with lower odds for being lonely compared to urban living…but this association was not statistically significant in the adjusted model[.] [emphasis mine]
And here’s Hammond et al. (2021):
Data from 756 participants who completed 16,602 assessments between April 2018 and March 2020 were used in order to investigate associations between momentary feeling of loneliness, the social environment (i.e. overcrowding, social inclusivity, population density) and the built environment (i.e. contact with nature)…Increased overcrowding and population density were associated with higher levels of loneliness; in contrast, social inclusivity and contact with nature were associated with lower levels of loneliness. These associations remained significant after adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, education and occupation. [emphasis mine]
And here’s Morris and Pfeiffer (2016):
Based on data from the 2003 to 2013 American Time Use Surveys, this research…assess[es] whether suburban living is associated with less socializing than city living in mid-to-large American metropolitan areas. After controlling for personal characteristics, we find no meaningful difference in suburbanites’ and city dwellers’ time spent socializing across a wide range of social activities. [emphasis mine]
Bower et al. (2022) review 57 different studies and find no systematic association between loneliness and any measurable feature of the built environment.
Why doesn’t the simple intuition work here? Probably because people aren’t just like particles bouncing around in a chemistry experiment — they don’t simply form human connections and bonds just because they happen to walk past each other. A few relationships form from random urban conversations, but most form through work, or friends-of-friends, or shared hobbies, etc.
And while meeting a ton of new people is fun, what really gets rid of loneliness is repeated interaction with people you know and care about. Imagine going to ten parties filled with strangers versus having two close friends over for dinner. Which of those is more likely to leave you feeling lonely? What about 100 Hinge dates versus having a relationship? Remember that Japan has the world’s best cities, but struggles with widespread loneliness.
In fact, suburbs have some features that make it easier to interact with the people you really care about. Those big houses aren’t just for walking around all alone and going “Wow my house is so huge”. They’re for entertaining guests. It’s harder to have a dinner party or a TV night or a game night at a tiny little Manhattan apartment than at a big suburban McMansion. Cars help too; those short travel times make it easier to just pop over and hang.
This doesn’t mean cities are socially inferior to suburbs. Constantly meeting new people is exciting. There’s more fun stuff to go out and do with your friends in a city — restaurants, parties, and so on. It’s just a different lifestyle.
The urban revival of the 1990s through the 2010s was a modest thing. It was largely driven by young people, high earners, and educated people. Here are some charts from Jed Kolko a decade ago:


During most of that urban boom, it was actually the suburbs that were growing much faster. And in recent years, the trend toward suburbanization has only accelerated. Here’s a much more recent chart:

Kolko shows that although the densest city centers are rebounding from the pandemic, more than 100% of this is driven by immigration — domestic migration is still strongly away from city centers.
In fact, the new suburbanization trend is being led by Millennials. This is from the Joint Center for Housing Studies:
[W]e found that throughout the past decade millennials were moving to suburbs that were farther out from the city center. There are many ways to define suburbs, and in this paper we rely on a framework that considers rates of homeownership, single-family housing, and car commuting, in addition to proximity to a metro’s urban core. While there is extensive research and discussion about millennial preferences for walkable urban areas, we found that the places with the largest increases of early millennials were both suburban and on the periphery of metropolitan areas. [emphasis mine]
Why are Millennials moving out? Part of it — the part that urbanists and YIMBYs will emphasize — is that they’re being pushed out by higher rents, which are a result of cities failing to build more housing. But that’s not the whole story. Millennials are also being pulled to the suburbs, because suburbs are generally better for raising kids.
Albouy and Faberman (2025) find that the kind of high-skilled workers who drove the urban boomlet of the 1990s through the 2010s tend to move out — and value urban amenities less — once they get a little older:
We show that high-skill workers disproportionately sort into high-amenity areas, but do so relatively early in life. Workers of all skill levels tend to move towards lower-amenity areas during their thirties and forties. Consequently, individuals’ time use and expenditures on activities related to local amenities are U-shaped over the life cycle…We present evidence that the move towards lower-amenity (and lower-cost) metropolitan areas is driven by changes in the number of household children over the life cycle: individuals, particularly the college educated, tend to move towards lower-amenity areas after having their first child. [emphasis mine]
Kolko shows something similar — people with a kid over 6 tended to move out of cities during the urban boomlet, even as childless people and people with young children were moving in:

Anyone with kids can easily rattle off the reasons why suburbs make it easier to raise kids. A big house means more room for kids to have their own bedrooms, space to play, and a back yard to run around in safety. A car makes it a lot easier to ferry kids around to school, or soccer practice, or wherever. Cars also make it much easier to do large grocery shopping trips — try taking a week’s worth of food for a family of four home from the store on foot or on a bike and you’ll quickly understand.
It’s almost a cliche that people move to the city when they’re young — to jump-start their career, to party, to meet friends, to explore the world, to date around, and to find their spouse — and then move out to the ‘burbs once they settle down and have kids. The cliche is rooted in reality.
Instead of treating the suburbs as some sort of hellish place that Americans’ car culture has exiled them to, urbanists should recognize that suburbs have real advantages that dense urban cores can’t easily replicate. Yes, too many Americans are pushed out to the ‘burbs by unaffordable housing. But a lot move there of their own free will, because they want a nice place to raise kids, enjoy a short quiet drive to work, and hang out with their friends in a big comfy house. It’s not the lifestyle for everyone, but it’s the lifestyle that a lot of people love and aspire to.
Which doesn’t mean we should ignore the real disadvantages of suburbia, either. Low-density sprawl is very expensive to maintain. It tends to make people less healthy, because they walk less. It reduces variety among restaurants and brick-and-mortar retail outlets, because it’s harder to cater to niche tastes when you don’t have a critical mass of people nearby. Those tradeoffs shouldn’t be ignored.
Nor should we accept that the current suburban form is the optimal one. A lot of American urbanism has focused not on Manhattanizing urban cores, but on giving suburbs a few more of the benefits of cities — creating “gentle density” with rowhouses and duplexes and small apartment buildings, allowing retail in residential areas, adding bike lanes and commuter rail, and so on. This should all continue.
But it’s simply a mistake to frame the question of urban form as “Which is better, cities or suburbs?”. The answer is that they’re good for different things, and they appeal to different sets of people. Instead of fighting flame wars over whether the whole country should look like Manhattan or the Inland Empire, we should aim for a country that has room for everyone. We should build great city centers for the same reason we should build great suburbs — because Americans deserve to have great places to live, no matter what kind of place they want to live in.
Well ok, not quite. My PhD years and my first year at Stony Brook involved more stints of suburban living.
“Yuppies”, in the parlance of our times.
Whether your car or the bus smells better probably depends on a lot of things.
Self-replicating probes continue to be a controversial subject, just as they were when Frank Tipler up the ante on Michael Hart by invoking them as a way of further tightening the tension of the Fermi Paradox. After all, Tipler had discovered an economic edge. Any civilization that wants to colonize the galaxy is going to expend vast resources, but if self-replication is available, that culture need only create the first probe, and let subsequent ones harvest resources as needed. Self-replication or not, the galaxy gets filled up in only a fraction of the current age of the Milky Way, but the economic stimulus provides yet another tightening of the Fermi knot. I hadn’t thought about all of this in connection with actual probe designs, but Peter Marinko’s article on the matter clearly touched a nerve, judging from the messages I’ve been getting about it. When Peter wrote recently with his thoughts on reader reactions, I asked him for permission to run it as a regular post rather than a comment, because I think this is a lively question and would like to see us continue to explore it.
by Peter Marinko
My previous post here, “A Metallurgist’s Doubts About Self-Replicating Probes,” argued that von Neumann probes are constrained less by physics than by process-chain closure and materials aging. The discussion that followed sharpened my thinking more than the original post did, and I want to begin by paying some of that debt.
On carbon: Adam Crowl supplied the numbers I should have had at hand: carbonaceous chondrites run some 3–5% organics, dormant comets are thought to be coated in hydrocarbon-rich asphalt, and Freitas’s study considered Titan — an organics-drenched world — alongside the Moon. Alex Tolley added the wider inventory: aromatics, CO, CO₂, CH₄, hydrogen-rich giant atmospheres, and tholins — the reddish-brown organic polymers, first named by Sagan, that form when ultraviolet light and charged particles work on simple molecules like methane and nitrogen, and that coat Titan, Pluto, and many cometary surfaces.
I accept the correction. Carbon is not scarce in the cosmos. But availability is not accessibility: 3–5% organics dispersed through a chondrite is a feedstock concentration problem, and concentration is exactly the step that has no gravity, no water, and no atmosphere to help it. What the correction really did was promote carbon from an afterthought to a criterion — as the reader will see below, three independent process chains now demand it.
On refractories: Alex Tolley and John both pointed to the same escape: induction heating with magnetic levitation, melting metal without touching a crucible at all. This is a genuinely good answer, and I concede it for the class of operations it covers — melting and casting nickel-iron, which asteroids supply free of charge. But it is not free, and the price is paid in the currency this study cares most about. A levitated melt has its entire surface exposed, and it radiates as T⁴. A crucible is not merely a container; it is insulation. Remove it and the induction coil must continuously replace radiative losses that a lined furnace would simply have prevented. In an exergy ledger, that is a permanent tax on every kilogram melted.
Nor does levitation cover reduction. Extracting metal from oxide requires a hot, chemically aggressive, contained environment, and containment is where linings live. Here I owe the discussion a nuance from my own field that I should have raised myself: melting is not the only route. Iron oxide can be reduced in the solid state, producing iron powder which is then pressed and sintered to finished shape — this is how Höganäs in Sweden has made metal powder for decades, and it is how tungsten-carbide drill inserts are produced. Powder metallurgy skips the melt entirely, which is a real advantage for a probe: no crucible, no tapping, no casting. But it does not escape the problem. Solid-state reduction needs long tunnel furnaces, a reducing atmosphere of hydrogen, carbon, or carbon monoxide, and sustained high temperature — and those furnaces need linings too. The refractory bootstrap survives every route I know how to draw.

Image: PG: I sometimes wonder what John von Neumann would say if he could see the length and depth of the debate over self-replicating interstellar probes. To my knowledge, he never considered self-replication in the context of star systems and certainly not colonizing an entire galaxy. We could use his insights today: What are we missing? Credit: Physics Today, although this old photo is widely available and I don’t know its origin.
Abelard Lindsey, writing from inside the industry, put the honest bound on it: difficult, but perhaps a decade or two of development. That is a fair estimate, and it belongs in the ledger as a research task rather than a wall.
On semiconductors: Lindsey and I are in violent agreement: this is the hard one, and he notes it must be solved on Earth as well before AI becomes cheap. “Building chips rather than carving them,” as he puts it, is the holy grail. I have no better idea, and I am not going to pretend otherwise.
On the mother-factory: Tolley’s most interesting move was to propose a way around closure rather than through it: a factory ship that travels star to star, spawning non-replicating probes from local resources, populating the galaxy more slowly but without ever needing full self-reproduction. I want to be clear that this is a good idea — and also that it concedes my central point. A mother-factory does not close the loop; it carries the fraction it cannot produce, and expands until that stock is exhausted. It converts an infinite-generation architecture into a finite one, and the number of generations it buys is precisely the vitamin inventory divided by the vitamins per copy. That is not a refutation of the closure argument. It is the closure argument, written as a mission design. The right question becomes: how many nodes does the stock buy? That number is computable, and Hephaistos is built to compute it.
On life: The deepest challenge came from Henry Cordova and Elisee Reclus, and it deserves more than a nod, because it attacks my framing rather than my arithmetic: robust self-replicating systems demonstrably exist, cover the Earth, and arose without design. If biology can do it, why not machines?
Here is my answer, and it is the reason I am not moving the goalposts. Life is not a counterexample to the closure problem; life is what closure looks like when you pay its actual price. A cell does not manufacture bearings to micron tolerance, does not need vacuum, does not require phase-pure silicon or reference metrology, and above all does not need to specify its output. It tolerates enormous error, discards most of its offspring, and lets selection curate the survivors — over billions of years, in a medium (liquid water, at moderate temperature, with an atmosphere and a gravity well) that supplies concentration and transport for free. Biology bought replication by abandoning precision, determinism, and speed, and by spending geological time as its currency.
A von Neumann probe cannot make that trade. It must arrive at a specified place, build a specified artifact to specified tolerances, and do so in decades. The moment we relax those requirements enough for a biological strategy to work — accept vast error, accept mostly-failed offspring, accept deep time — we no longer have an engineering project; we have seeded a biosphere and lost the ability to say what it will become. That may be a defensible thing to do. It is not the thing anyone is proposing when they invoke probes crossing the galaxy in a few hundred thousand years.
So I take the biological objection seriously, and my conclusion from it is not optimism but a sharper statement of the problem: self-replication is cheap if you can pay in error and time, and murderously expensive if you must pay in precision and schedule. The exergy ledger below is an attempt to price the second option honestly.
Where this goes next:
Skepticism is cheap. The honest next step, for a critic who spent a career in industrial process engineering, is to try to make the thing work — on paper, with real process chains and mass balances — and see exactly where it breaks.
That is what I am now attempting, in a study I am calling Project Hephaistos, after the god who forged automata for Olympus: a virtual self-replicating probe, audited line by line, where every assumption and every capitulation is logged in public. Two ledgers run through it. The Vitamin List records every component the probe cannot make for itself, with masses attached. The Exception Ledger records every problem I have deliberately set aside. I expect the second document to be the more valuable of the two.
In a future post I will set out the mission architecture, and the first trade study: whether it is better to send a probe slowly, with today’s technology, and let it fight fifty millennia of aging — or quickly, at a tenth of light speed, and let it fight the interstellar medium. Both, it turns out, are running the same race against the same opponent. Only the costume changes.
My thanks again to everyone who wrote in. Keep it coming — the ledger has room.

Dubai is a city defined by ambition, innovation, and extraordinary luxury. From the soaring Burj Khalifa and the sprawling Dubai Mall to the man‑made marvel of the Palm Jumeirah, every corner of this metropolis exudes sophistication. In a city where image and prestige matter, your choice of transportation is far more than a way to get from point A to point B – it is a statement of success, style, and personal achievement.
Whether you are visiting for a special occasion, closing a major business deal, or simply treating yourself to an unforgettable experience, a rent a car dubai luxury can elevate your journey from ordinary to extraordinary. Cruising down Sheikh Zayed Road in a Lamborghini, arriving at a five‑star hotel in a Rolls‑Royce, or exploring the Palm Jumeirah in a Ferrari is not just about transportation – it is an experience that defines what Dubai is all about.
Dubai’s luxury car rental market is experiencing remarkable growth. The UAE car rental sector has been one of the fastest‑growing in the GCC for the past five years. In 2024, the UAE car rental market was valued at approximately USD 2.46 billion, with projections reaching USD 5.24 billion by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.1%. Dubai dominated the UAE car rental market in 2025 with over 55% revenue share, supported by world‑class airport connectivity, a dense hotel and MICE infrastructure pipeline, and the RTA’s active fleet licensing expansion. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 10.8% over the 2026 to 2035 forecast period.
Luxury and exotic rentals represent a meaningful and growing share of this market. Luxury rentals (AED 500–1,000 per day) generated 80,000 views in recent data, up 17.8%, while the ultra‑luxury category (AED 1,000+) recorded 74,000 views, marking a notable 25.8% increase. Demand for premium vehicles like Rolls‑Royce models is expected to remain strong throughout 2025, driven by Dubai’s active calendar of international events, corporate gatherings, and seasonal tourism.
What does this mean for you? More choice, more competitive pricing, and a market that is adapting rapidly to consumer needs – making it the perfect time to rent your dream car.
Choosing a luxury car rental over buying or relying on other transport options offers numerous advantages that go far beyond mere transportation.
The greatest benefit is that you do not have to commit financially to ownership. Buying a luxury vehicle in Dubai involves significant costs: substantial down payments, hefty insurance premiums, rapid depreciation, and expensive maintenance. Renting eliminates these burdens entirely. For residents who value flexibility, renting also allows you to switch between brands and models freely, avoiding long‑term commitments and enjoying the latest designs and technologies.
Dubai is home to vital business hubs like the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and Dubai Internet City. Driving an exotic car is prestigious and can impress potential business partners and clients. Arriving at a meeting in a Rolls‑Royce or Bentley Bentayga makes a powerful and lasting statement of professionalism and success.
Luxury car rental gives you total flexibility. Instead of depending on taxis or ride‑hailing apps, you can move around Dubai on your own schedule and arrive everywhere with confidence. A luxury car offers comfort, privacy, style, and the freedom to explore the city’s iconic landmarks at your own pace. Premium vehicles are better suited to Dubai’s conditions than standard models – they offer high comfort on longer journeys, modern safety and assistance systems, stable handling on highways, and powerful air conditioning.
When you rent, you do not have to worry about maintenance or repairs. Everything is taken care of by the rental provider, so you can focus entirely on enjoying the driving experience and the beauty of Dubai.
Dubai’s luxury car rental market offers an incredible variety of options. Selecting the right vehicle depends on your purpose, budget, and personal taste.
Perfect for thrill‑seekers and those wanting to make a dramatic entrance. Models like the Lamborghini Huracán and Aventador, Ferrari F8, and McLaren supercars offer exhilarating speed, precision engineering, and head‑turning style. These are ideal for short‑term rentals, special occasions, and dynamic driving experiences. Supercar rentals are about more than just transportation – they are about the thrill of speed and style.
If you need space, comfort, and versatility, luxury SUVs are an excellent choice. The Lamborghini Urus, Bentley Bentayga, Rolls‑Royce Cullinan, and Mercedes G‑Class (a Dubai favourite) offer ample room for families or groups, high comfort levels, and a commanding driving position on all road types. Luxury SUVs are among the most rented vehicles, with models like the G63, Range Rover, Urus, Cullinan, and Bentayga making up a significant share of the fleet.
For business travel, corporate events, or simply comfortable city driving, sedans like the Rolls‑Royce Ghost, BMW 7 Series, and Mercedes S‑Class combine elegance, modern technology, and balanced driving dynamics. These vehicles are well‑suited for airport transfers, client meetings, and daily use, offering a refined and sophisticated experience.
For those wanting to enjoy Dubai’s year‑round sunshine, convertibles offer the perfect blend of style and open‑air freedom. Cruising along the coastline with the top down is an experience that embodies the spirit of Dubai.
Luxury car rental prices in Dubai vary widely depending on the model, rental duration, and season. Here is a general overview:
For longer rentals, weekly and monthly rates offer significant savings. Monthly rates for luxury vehicles can range from approximately 18,000 AED for premium sedans to 65,000 AED+ for supercars. Luxury SUVs typically range from 25,000 to 55,000 AED per month.
Costs can be higher for ultra‑rare hypercars, with some models reaching up to 20,000 AED per day. The cost of renting a luxury car in Dubai depends on the model, rental duration, and season.
Renting a luxury car in Dubai is straightforward, but there are specific requirements and steps to follow for a smooth and enjoyable experience.
For UAE residents:
For tourists and visitors:
Drivers must typically be at least 21 years old for standard luxury cars. Many supercar and exotic rentals, however, require drivers to be 25 or older due to higher insurance liability and vehicle value. High‑performance vehicles may also demand a minimum of 3 years of documented driving experience.
Renting an exotic car typically requires a refundable security deposit charged to a credit card. The deposit amount ranges from AED 2,000 to AED 15,000 depending on the vehicle category. However, many agencies now offer no‑deposit policies, making luxury car rental more accessible than ever.
Basic insurance, including Collision Damage Waiver (CDW) and third‑party liability, is usually included but often comes with a high deductible. Always check what is covered – tyres, windshields, and interiors may fall outside standard policies. Consider upgrading to comprehensive coverage for complete peace of mind.
Luxury rentals often come with mileage limits; exceeding them can result in additional charges. Most companies operate on a “full‑to‑full” fuel policy – you receive the car with a full tank and must return it full.
If this is your first time renting a luxury car in Dubai, these practical tips will help ensure a seamless and enjoyable experience.
During peak tourist seasons and around major events, luxury cars are in high demand. Booking ahead secures your preferred model and often gets you better rates.
Dubai has many local car rental agencies that often charge less than international chains. Use comparison platforms to find the best deals, but always read reviews to ensure you book with a reputable provider.
Consider what you will be using the car for – business meetings, leisure, or special occasions – and select a vehicle that matches the mood and purpose.
Carefully examine the vehicle for any scratches, dents, or damage. Make sure all existing marks are recorded in the rental contract. Taking photos or a short video is always a smart idea – it protects you from being charged for pre‑existing damage.
Read the rental contract thoroughly. Pay attention to the rental period, return time, late fees, mileage allowance, and what is included in the insurance coverage.
Dubai is strict about road safety. Speeding fines, reckless driving, and breaking rules can lead to heavy penalties. Always stick to speed limits and avoid dangerous stunts or drifting. Drive responsibly to make the most of your luxury car adventure.
For those seeking a seamless and trustworthy luxury car rental experience, Yango Drive offers a modern, digital‑first platform that simplifies the entire process. Yango Drive is a comprehensive car rental marketplace that aggregates thousands of premium vehicles from carefully selected providers across Dubai.
Yango Drive provides a curated selection of premium and luxury vehicles, including sedans, SUVs, and sports cars. From the BMW 8 Series and BMW M4 Competition to the Lamborghini Urus and Rolls‑Royce Cullinan, there is a vehicle for every taste and occasion.
The platform displays total costs upfront, with no hidden fees or surprise add‑ons. Premium vehicles are available from approximately 5,500 AED per month, with luxury and ultra‑luxury models ranging up to 12,000 AED per month or more, depending on the vehicle. Daily rates for models like the BMW 840i start from approximately 900 AED per day.
Select your vehicle category and model, choose your rental duration – daily, weekly, or monthly – provide the required documents, confirm your booking, and receive your vehicle at the agreed location.
Many vehicles on the platform are available with no security deposit, giving you more control over your initial outlay.
Luxury cars can be rented for short periods or longer stays. Premium cars are available from AED 3,200 per month when booked for six months, with insurance, maintenance, and road assistance included.
Yango Drive stays in contact with customers from the time of their request until the car is returned, addressing any potential issues promptly.
Luxury car rental solutions cater to a diverse and discerning range of users:
Dubai is a city that celebrates the extraordinary. Renting a luxury car allows you to fully immerse yourself in that spirit – whether you are closing a business deal, celebrating a milestone, or simply indulging in the thrill of driving a world‑class machine. With the UAE car rental market projected to reach $5.24 billion by 2030 and Dubai’s rental fleet expanding at an unprecedented pace, there has never been a better time to turn your dream into reality.
So, on your next visit to Dubai, consider making your stay truly unforgettable with a rent a car dubai luxury experience. After all, in a city that does everything in style, why should your transportation be any different?
Photo: wael chaabane via Pexels
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The post The Ultimate Guide to Rent a Car Dubai Luxury – Experience the City in Unforgettable Style appeared first on DCReport.org.
The online casino industry has changed dramatically over the past two decades. Once viewed as a largely unregulated corner of the internet, it has evolved into a highly structured sector in many jurisdictions, with licensing requirements, consumer protection measures, and responsible gambling policies playing a central role. Today’s leading operators compete not only through game selection and technology but also through transparency, compliance, and the overall quality of the customer experience.
For players, these changes have made it easier to identify platforms that operate within established legal frameworks. For regulators, they represent an ongoing effort to balance innovation with consumer protection in a rapidly growing digital marketplace. As expectations continue to evolve, regulation has become one of the defining characteristics of a mature and sustainable online gaming industry.
One of the biggest developments in online gambling has been the growing importance of licensing. Reputable operators are expected to comply with strict standards covering customer verification, financial security, fair gaming, and responsible gambling. Players increasingly research where an operator is licensed before opening an account because regulation provides reassurance that the business follows recognised industry standards and remains subject to independent oversight.
Among licensed operators, mr Q live games are available alongside a sportsbook and a broad selection of casino titles on a platform regulated by the UK Gambling Commission. In addition to live dealer experiences, MrQ provides responsible gambling tools, transparent promotional terms, secure payment options, and customer support designed to meet the expectations of players using regulated services. These features illustrate how licensing has become closely linked with consumer confidence rather than simply acting as a legal requirement.
Modern consumers expect openness from every digital service they use, and online casinos are no exception. Clear bonus terms, accessible account information, straightforward payment policies, and visible responsible gambling resources all contribute to a better customer experience. Operators that communicate openly with their customers are often viewed as more trustworthy than those relying on complicated conditions or unclear promotional offers.
Transparency also reduces misunderstandings and helps players make informed decisions before registering or depositing funds. As competition within the industry continues growing, trust has become one of the strongest differentiators between licensed operators, encouraging businesses to communicate more clearly about their products, policies, and player protections.
Responsible gambling has become a core part of how licensed operators design their platforms. Many now provide deposit limits, reality checks, session reminders, cooling-off periods, and self-exclusion options directly within customer accounts. These tools allow users to manage their gambling activity proactively while encouraging healthier gambling habits over the long term.
Technology has made these protections easier to access than ever before. Rather than contacting customer support, players can often adjust their limits independently through their online accounts within minutes. This shift reflects a broader understanding across the industry that long-term sustainability depends on promoting responsible gambling instead of focusing solely on customer acquisition.
Digital innovation has strengthened both convenience and security across regulated gambling platforms. Identity verification systems help prevent fraud and underage gambling, while encryption technologies protect financial information and secure payment gateways reduce transaction risks. Artificial intelligence is increasingly being used to identify unusual patterns of behaviour that may indicate problematic gambling or account misuse.
These technologies improve operational efficiency while supporting the wider objective of protecting consumers throughout their interactions with licensed operators. As digital tools continue advancing, operators are expected to invest even further in systems that improve both security and player wellbeing.
The online gambling industry continues changing as technology develops and consumer expectations shift. Regulators regularly review advertising standards, payment processes, affordability measures, and responsible gambling policies to ensure existing rules remain effective. Operators must continually adapt to these developments while maintaining high standards of compliance, customer service, and operational transparency.
This ongoing process demonstrates that regulation is not static but evolves alongside technological innovation and changing market conditions. The industry’s willingness to adapt has become one of the reasons regulated markets continue attracting players who value accountability and consumer protection.
According to the UK Gambling Commission , effective regulation is designed to keep gambling fair and open, protect vulnerable people from gambling-related harm, and prevent gambling from becoming a source of crime. These objectives help establish consistent standards across licensed operators while encouraging greater accountability throughout the industry.
For consumers, this means greater confidence when choosing regulated platforms because they know operators must meet clearly defined legal obligations. For businesses, it creates a competitive environment where investment in transparency, player protection, and responsible gambling practices becomes a genuine advantage rather than simply a regulatory requirement.
The online casino industry today looks very different from its early years. Regulation, technology, and changing consumer expectations have combined to create an environment where trust is just as important as entertainment. Licensed operators increasingly compete through responsible gambling tools, secure payment systems, transparent communication, and high standards of customer support alongside their gaming products.
As regulatory frameworks continue evolving, the industry’s long-term success will depend on maintaining a careful balance between innovation and accountability. For players, these developments make it easier to identify platforms that prioritise safety, fairness, and transparency, helping create a stronger and more sustainable future for regulated online gaming.
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The post How Regulation Has Changed the Online Casino Industry appeared first on DCReport.org.
This paper documents new facts about concentration in publishing in economics. First, the profession grows downward . The number of economists grew almost sixfold since 1990, but new entrants publish in lower-tier journals while incumbents hold the top. Second, there is high and persistent concentration at the top. Along with the downward growth, the top-1% authors accounted for 38.4% of top-5 publication credit in 1990 and for 78.3% in 2025. Third, the persistence is widespread within cohorts, within subfields, and within gender. Fourth, new journals only slightly dilute concentration. Fifth, elite authors diversify on topics faster than the rest of the profession. We interpret the findings with a screening model of attention under information overload. The evidence is consistent with the model: as the field grows, citations concentrate on established work and the conditional citation premium of top-author papers narrows.
By Ricardo Dahis, via the excellent Samir Varma.
The post Persistent Inequality in Publishing in Economics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Update July 13, 5:58 a.m. EDT (0958 UTC): SpaceX landed its booster on the droneship.
SpaceX flew a flight-proven Falcon rocket booster for a 600th time when it launched the Starlink 10-45 mission from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station Tuesday morning. This was the 28th flight for the booster with the tail number 1080.
The predawn flight added another 29 broadband internet satellites to SpaceX’s low Earth orbit constellation. The company has more than 10,800 spacecraft in low Earth orbit.
Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 happened at 5:10 a.m. EDT (0910 UTC). The rocket flew on a north-easterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.
The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 90 percent chance for favorable weather at the opening of the window, which improves to 95 percent as time goes on. Meteorologists are watching out the slight possibility of the rocket flying through thick clouds, which could generate lightning.
“Some lingering thick clouds left over by the evening convection may be present at the beginning of the launch window but should gradually dissipate through the window,” launch weather officers wrote. “As a result, we have raised the POV slightly at the beginning of tonight’s launch window, but overall good weather is expected.”
SpaceX launch the Starlink 10-45 mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1080. This was its 28th flight following the launches of two crew flights for Axiom Space, the European Space Agency’s Euclid observatory, and Northrop Grumman’s NG-21.
Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1080 landed on the droneship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas’, positioned in the Atlantic Ocean. This was the 161st landing on this vessel and the 638th booster landing for the company to date.
Release: sqlite-utils 4.1.1
Mainly a fix for an edge case that regular Claude chat spotted while experimenting with the 4.1 release to answer a question about ON DELETE.
table.transform()now raises aTransactionErrorif called while a transaction is open withPRAGMA foreign_keysenabled and the table is referenced by foreign keys with destructiveON DELETEactions -CASCADE,SET NULLorSET DEFAULT. The pragma cannot be changed inside a transaction, so previously dropping the old table as part of the transform could fire those actions and silently delete or modify referencing rows. See Foreign keys and transactions for details and workarounds. (#794)- The CLI and Python API documentation now cross-reference each other: CLI sections link to the equivalent Python API functionality and Python API sections link back to the corresponding CLI command. (#791)
Tags: sqlite, sqlite-utils
Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy
I’ve written on a number of occasions about what I called, in yesterday’s primer, the downward spiral of oligarchy in America: The political power of the hyper-wealthy tilts policy in their favor, and this policy tilt reinforces the wealth and power of that tiny minority. In today’s post I’ll follow up by focusing on one especially clear example: The drastic fall over time in taxes on corporate profits, despite overwhelming popular opinion that corporate taxes are too low, not too high.
As I pointed out in yesterday’s primer, the best available explanations for the huge rise in wealth concentration at the topof the distribution emphasize the large decline in tax progressivity since the 1970s, which greatly reduced tax rates on high-income individuals. In particular, lower taxes on income from capital made it possible for the already wealthy to accumulate ever more wealth.
A crucial change was a drastic fall in taxes on corporate profits, most of which indirectly fall on stockholders. Here is a chart from the most recent primer, which shows the change in corporate taxes as a share of profits over time:
This massive decline in corporate taxation – from 35% in the 1960s to around 12% today -- benefits the people who own corporations. Not surprisingly, equity ownership is highly concentrated among the wealthy. The Distributional National Accounts produced by Gabriel Zucman and colleagues include an estimate of the effective federal tax rate on the top 0.01% of the income distribution, broken down by the kind of tax. They find a drastic decline in taxes at the top, mainly driven by the decline in corporate taxes:
I should acknowledge that there is dispute both about just how much taxes for those at the top of the income distributionhave declined and about the sources of that decline, which largely rests on the question of the extent to which corporate tax cuts trickle down to workers and consumers. Zucman and colleagues assume very little trickle down. As I’ll explain in a moment, recent experience supports their view. But I should acknowledge that there is a dispute.
My main point, however, is that the big reductions in corporate taxes have taken place without broad public support — in fact, in the teeth of very broad public opposition.
Gallup has been surveying Americans about their views on taxes on a regular basis for more than 20 years. Public opinion on corporate taxes has barely changed over time. A huge majority consistently says that corporations pay too little, while hardly anyone says they pay too much:
Americans, then, overwhelmingly believe that corporate taxes should go up — yet they keep going down. Why?
Part of the answer is campaign finance, which was increasingly dominated by the interests of capital even before Citizens United unleashed a tsunami of billionaire money:
Another part of the answer is corruption. Before Trump 2.0 political corruption was generally disguised and implicit: Politicians and political staffers favored corporate interests because of incentives like the revolving door, in which they could expect to move on to well-paid employment as lobbyists. These days, thanks to Trump, political graft is open and direct: much of it is simply cash, crypto and sweetheart contracts that enrich politicians and their families.
In addition, big money has gained the ability to shape the information environment. Right-wing think tanks, subsidized “research” and captured media relentlessly push the interests of billionaires. This shifts the Overton Window, the range of policies conventional wisdom considers acceptable: even centrists often end up viewing billionaire-friendly policies as sensible and reasonable, while other policies — even policies that were considered perfectly normal in the past, like high taxes on profits — are viewed as radical and irresponsible.
A key part of the argument that corporate taxes must be kept low is the claim that the United States is competing with other nations for a limited pool of global capital, and that if we have higher corporate taxes than other nations, the capital will go elsewhere. Correspondingly, advocates of further cuts in corporate taxes claim that such cuts will generate huge inflows of capital from abroad, leading to higher economic growth and wages for workers.
So it’s worth pointing out that Trump did, in fact, slash corporate taxes in 2017. What happened as a result? Basically, nothing, except that corporations paid even less in taxes.
True, some corporations revised their accounting fictions, reassigning some profits they had booked with subsidiaries in Ireland and other low-tax nations back to the parent company. But there was no huge surge in US investment.
This experience convinced me that there is very little trickle-down from corporate tax cuts. Thus the huge decline in corporate tax rates since 1970 was, in fact, a huge indirect tax cut for wealthy individuals who own lots of stock. And this, as I noted earlier, fueled America’s spiral into oligarchy, in which growing concentration of wealth at the top generates the resources to further tilt economic and political policies in their favor.
Is the system rigged? Yes, it is. Can we unrig it? Yes, we can. If you look back at the chart showing the downward trend in tax rate on the top 0.01%, you will see that there were significant although temporary reversals in that trend under both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama (reflecting, in Obama’s case, tax hikes to pay for expanded healthcare.) Right-wingers predicted disaster from these tax hikes, which never materialized.
What we need going forward is for voters to elect candidates who are committed to reversing the downward spiral of oligarchy. Realistically this means electing Democrats who are committed to raising taxes on the wealthy. Beyond that, it means rejecting Democrats — like, alas, Sen. Gillibrand of New York — who accept tainted corporate campaign funds and sweetheart perks bestowed on themselves and family members. Furthermore, once in power, Democrats must pass laws that stop lawmakers and their family members from engaging in corrupt enrichment.
Perhaps in a perverse way we can thank Trump: things are so nightmarishly bad that we may have the best chance in decades of finally breaking out of the oligarchy trap.
MUSICAL CODA
For no particular reason
Directly Responsible Individuals (DRI)
I went looking for a definition of "Directly Responsible Individuals" and the best I found was in the GitLab handbook. Apparently the term originated at Apple, where it's used to describe the person who is "ultimately accountable for the success or failure of a specific project, initiative, or activity".I've been thinking about this term recently in the context of LLM-powered agents and how they fit into human organizations. I don't think an agent should ever be considered the DRI for a project - that's something that feels uniquely human to me, because humans can take accountability for their actions where machines cannot.
(See also IBM's legendary 1979 training slide that states "A computer can never be held accountable, therefore a computer must never make a management decision.")
Tags: apple, management, ai, gitlab, generative-ai, llms, ai-ethics, coding-agents
Release: shot-scraper 1.11
Some minor improvements, mainly around command option consistency and making the server: mechanism used by both shot-scraper video and shot-scraper multi work if the server takes longer than a second to start serving traffic.
server:processes used byshot-scraper multiandshot-scraper videonow wait up to 30 seconds for the target URL to accept connections, polling for port availability and replacing the previous fixed one-second delay. #197- The
shot-scraper,html,accessibilityandharcommands now have a--js-fileoption for loading JavaScript from a local file, standard input orgh:username/script, as an alternative to--javascriptwhich accepts the string of JavaScript directly as an argument. #192shot-scraper multisupports the equivalentjs_file:YAML key.- The
shot-scraper javascriptandshot-scraper htmlcommands now have a--timeoutoption for consistency with other commands. #118
Tags: shot-scraper
One of the consequences of GPT-5.6 Sol being clearly a Fable/Mythos class model is that Anthropic have, once again, bumped the date that Fable stops being available in their Claude Max plans:
We're extending Claude Fable 5 access on all paid plans, as well as keeping Claude Code’s weekly rate limits 50% higher, through July 19.
As before, you can use up to half of your weekly usage limit on Fable 5. After that, you can continue using Fable 5 with usage credits, or switch to another model to keep working within your remaining limits.
Anthropic's original rationale for this was compute constraints - they wanted a better idea of both demand and compute availability before committing to keeping the new model cheap for subscribers.
OpenAI appear confident that they won't need to restrict access to GPT-5.6 in the same way. Here's Thibault Sottiaux this morning:
The last 48 hours of Codex and ChatGPT Work have been intense! Three important updates:
- Temporarily removing the 5 hour usage limit restriction for all Plus, Business and Pro plans
- Rolling out changes that will make GPT 5.6 Sol more efficient across the board and that will be reflected in less usage being used so that it can take you further. Exact impact to be quantified and shared
- We hit 6M active users, and are landing a usage reset in the next hour
At this point I think Anthropic should change track and keep Fable permanently available on those plans. OpenAI are winning users simply due to the uncertainty that surrounds Fable access.
Tags: anthropic, generative-ai, gpt, openai, claude-mythos-fable, ai, llms, llm-pricing

Update July 13, 10:05 p.m. (0205 UTC): SpaceX landed the booster on the droneship.
SpaceX will launch another batch of Starlink V2 Mini satellites into low Earth orbit Monday evening on a Falcon 9 rocket flying from Vandenberg Space Force Base.
The Starlink 15-14 mission will add another 27 broadband internet satellites the company’s low Earth orbit constellation. It currently has more than 10,700 spacecraft in orbit.
Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East happened at 6:28:17 p.m. PDT (9:28:17 p.m. EDT / 0128:17 UTC).
SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1093. This was its 15th flight after launching Transporter-16, two missions for the Space Development Agency, and 11 batches of Starlink satellites.
About eight minutes after liftoff, B1093 landed on the droneship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You’, positioned in the Pacific Ocean. This was the 210th landing on this vessel and the 637th booster landing to date for SpaceX.
A week or so ago, I did an Instagram post on Four Weddings and a Funeral, starring Hugh Grant, saying :
“…it was a total delight. No violence, murder, torture or evil, but a slyly funny British romantic comedy with a cast of adeptly funny characters, starring Grant in his breakout role. It’s witty and poignant (the funeral eulogy brought tears to my eyes — maybe partially because the recently departed guy reminded me of my late friend Doug in his joy of life). With all that’s going on in the world right now, especially in the USA, this comic masterpiece is a welcome relief.
The music is great too and in the closing credits, which ties everything together, the song ‘Chapel of Love’ is a playful cover by Elton John of the ‘60s hit by The Dixie Cups.”
The post had 29,000 views. I asked for recommendations and got 119 comments, most with recommended feel-good films.
What I like about this list is that it’s from people like you and me, not professional reviewers. Come to think of it, in the same way the Whole Earth Catalog reviews were by like-minded people, rather than commercial or professional interests. This was maybe the key feature of the WEC, it was so refreshing and unique to have hands-on, non-professional book and tool reviews in the ‘60s.
I like this list better than all the lists I see in the NYT of recent movies and TV series. It’s just right for me at this time in my life.
Late flash: last night I watched my first on the list, Moonstruck, (hadn’t see it before — in fact, haven’t seen most of these) and was struck by not only the acting (Cher and Nicolas Cage), but the kindnesses, the actors’ interactions that were loving and lovable. Made me smile and feel good.
• 10 Things I Hate About You
• 40-Year-Old Virgin
• About a Boy
• About Time
• Ball of Fire 1941, (written by Billy Wilder, starring Gary Cooper, Barbara Stanwyck)
• Ballad of Wallace Island. The
• Being There
• Big Chill, The
• Big Lebowski, The
Boat That Rocked, The
Booksmart
Bridesmaids
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
• Chef
• Citizen Vigilante
• Cold Comfort Farm
• Crossing Delancey
• Dan in Real Life
• Daytrippers, The
• Death at a Funeral (British Version)
• Defending Your Life
• Delicatessen
• Dustin
• Father of the Bride (Steve Martin Version)
• Four Weddings and a Funeral
• Foul Play
• Four Lions
• French Kiss
• Good Morning
• Greenfingers
• Groundhog Day
• Hamish Macbeth
• Hopscotch
• I Love You, Man
• Idiocracy
• Intolerable Cruelty
• Julie & Julia
• Little Miss Sunshine
• Little Women
• Local Hero
• Moonstruck
• Muriel’s Wedding
• My Cousin Vinny
• Nine to Five
• Northern Exposure
• Notting Hill
• Nuts in May
• O Brother, Where Art Thou?
• On Golden Pond
• Peggy Sue Got Married
• Pee-wee’s Big Adventure
• Postcards from the Edge
• Raising Arizona
• Rango
• Room with a View, A
• Sheep Detective, The
• So I Married an Axe Murderer
• Steel Magnolias
• Strictly Ballroom
• Tootsie
• Toy Story
• Trading Places
• Waking Ned Devine
• When Harry Met Sally
• Withnail and I
• Worst Person in the World, The
• You’ve Got Mail
• Young Frankenstein
I added Young Frankenstein to the list. It’s the funniest move I’ve ever seen, and the black and white photography is stunning. Much of the lab equipment used as props was from the 1931 film Frankenstein. The lighting! — the actors are luminous.
The dialogue is brilliant. there are a slew of famous one-liners: “It’s pronounced Fronkensteen..” / “He vass my boyfriend!” */ “Just what is it that you do do?” / “Put…the candle…back!.” / “What knockers! — Sank you Doctor.” / "Would you like to have a roll in za hay?" / “What hump?”
A masterpiece.
I used Perplexity AI (which, in researching, has changed my life! ) to alphabetize the list, and it asked if I wanted categorization by mood (rather than by genre):
Easy watches, warm tone, low stakes
About a Boy
About Time
Chef
Dan in Real Life
Father of the Bride (Steve Martin Version)
French Kiss
Good Morning
Greenfingers
Julie & Julia
Little Women
Moonstruck
My Cousin Vinny
Notting Hill
On Golden Pond
Peggy Sue Got Married
Room with a View, A
You’ve Got Mail
Jokes first, often absurd or high-energy
40-Year-Old Virgin
Booksmart
Bridesmaids
Foul Play
Four Lions
I Love You, Man
Idiocracy
Intolerable Cruelty
Pee-wee’s Big Adventure
Raising Arizona
So I Married an Axe Murderer
Tootsie
Trading Places
Young Frankenstein
Eccentric characters, odd rhythms, cult vibe
Being There
Big Lebowski, The
Delicatessen
Hopscotch
Local Hero
Muriel’s Wedding
Nuts in May
O Brother, Where Art Thou?
Postcards from the Edge
Strictly Ballroom
Withnail and I
Love-driven stories, emotional payoff
10 Things I Hate About You
Crossing Delancey
Death at a Funeral (British Version)
Little Miss Sunshine
Notting Hill
When Harry Met Sally
You’ve Got Mail
Dry humor, dialogue-driven, often satirical
Ball of Fire
Big Chill, The
Citizen Vigilante
Defending Your Life
Dustin
Daytrippers, The
Intolerable Cruelty
Metropolitan-style tone not present but similar vibe cluster here
Sheep Detective, The
Worst Person in the World, The
Group dynamics, small communities, shared lives
Big Chill, The
Daytrippers, The
Hamish Macbeth
Northern Exposure
Steel Magnolias
Humor mixed with melancholy or edge
Four Lions
Muriel’s Wedding
Postcards from the Edge
Withnail and I
Worst Person in the World, The
Movement, escapism, or stylized fun
Boat That Rocked, The
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Rango
Toy Story
Waking Ned Devine
The age 20-24 unemployment rate is now ~unchanged since the AI boom began…
Link and picture here.
The post The wisdom of Conor Sen appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2. Claims about cats (NYT). I guess they have no Coase theorem after all.
3. Iran and the Strait (WSJ).
4. “I used to be one of these people.” And Timothy Lee. As for this exchange, in the 2040 scenario strong AI is a power magnet in a way that milk or eggs or electricity are not. I do understand the claim that one might prefer this extreme governmental power to a greater role for the private sector, but extreme governmental power it is going to be, again at least under the 2040 scenario assumptions about the spread and efficacy of AI.
5. Scott Sumner engages with Fable on market monetarism.
6. “The number of students admitted to Ph.D. programs this fall dropped 15 percent from the previous year, according to data from over 50 top research universities…” (NYT) Partial data suggest that the year before the decline may have been eleven percent.
7. Inequality does not seem to erode democracy.
The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
One hundred episodes. For this occasion, years in the coming, Lyle and I talk about the thing itself — the nuts and bolts of the podcast, including how the robots now do an alarming amount of the work, what a hundred episodes taught us, and why we use the “The One About…” naming convention.
: the show has a home at importantthing.show. Deep-link a favorite or just scroll through a hundred episodes of history.
Stuff that came up:
Related Important Things episodes:
Enjoy it now, or download for later. Here’s a handy feed or subscribe via Overcast or iTunes.
Observed at Dupont Circle, D.C.:

Links for you. Science:
Genomic epidemiology of the ongoing 2026 Bundibugyo Virus Disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Land of Milk and Money
With 61 new cases, US measles outbreak fast approaching last year’s total
MAHA Doctors Promised Kennedy Would be the Savior of Vaccines. What Happened Next?
Trump, Ending Decades of Protection, Opens Wild Habitats to Drilling and Mining
Your Cat Is Being Nice? Think Again. A new study finds that sometimes cats groom each other specifically to be annoying.
President Trump expected to shrink Grand Staircase and Bears Ears National Monuments as soon as Monday, sources say
Other:
DOGE Ended on July 4, But the Workers Whose Lives Musk Upended Are Still Reeling
New push to get the National Guard out of Washington
Why American ambulance rides are so expensive
Hey Dems! Swing Voters Want You To Tax The Rich And Get Them Medicare For All! Isn’t That Nice?
Make no mistake, Graham Platner was ‘grown in a vat’ by political hucksters. The more we learn about his rise and fall, it’s clear he was swooped up by outside consultants, disdainful of “the establishment,” who chose him like they were casting a role, with little vetting.
Why was the pundit class so quick to defend Graham Platner?
They Could Still Tout It
The End of Reading Is Here
An Inconvenient Moment for an Extreme Global Heat Wave
Another Atrocity
“AI Agents”
Something Incredible Every Single Game
How Two Punk Icons Are Giving the Cramps a Second Life
Dem lawmakers want Kash Patel to answer for his spending — but this time they’re not alone
Man Killed by Federal Agent in Houston Was Not the Target of ICE Search
The Swing Voters of the 2026 Midterms Want Democrats to Tax the Rich
Second Person in a Week Killed by Federal Task Force in Memphis
Bryan Johnson is Dying
How to Identify a National Guard Member’s Home State
When in Doubt, Moderates Veer Left
The Mamdani-Hochul Bus Plan: Priority Corridors, Bus Rapid Transit, Lane Enforcement And, Finally, All-Door Boarding
Apple sues OpenAI alleging trade secret theft, says scheme was ‘at every level’ (shocking behavior from a company whose entire business model is built on a foundation of theft)
AI Fiction Is Easy to Detect Because It’s Stupid and Bad, Research Finds
Why America has fallen for Erling Haaland, football’s most likeable superstar
The Logo for Donald Trump International Airport Appears to Be AI Slop
Republicans ask WNBA to protect Caitlin Clark from possible ‘racially motivated’ attacks (like creationists, words have no meaning to movement conservatives)
Estonia Won the War on Fentanyl. What Came Next Was Even Worse.
A sentient collection of red flags
Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds
MAGA Republican who claimed to have killed people as a child wins Colorado GOP primary
Ridgeline subscribers —
Man, it was fun talking with Kazunori Hamana back in January. He’s lived a bizarre life, seemingly one without a roadmap, though I suspect his laid-back, subtly-goatee’d vibes belie a cunning streak. He was welcoming and rough-edged in a disarming way. He lives out in the wilds of Chiba, in an area that feels like it may cease to exist without his presence in ten or fifteen years. Many lives ago, he lived in the wilds of Shibuya, running a select / used-clothing shop called “Blues” out of Ura-Harajuku (back when Ura-Hara was a place you’d catch whispers of on rogue Usenet forums, or in copies of TOKION snatched from Casa Magazines in the West Village, if anywhere; today it is splayed about TikTok like a glazed ham at Old Country Buffet) and driving around in a Ferrari. Now he drives a kei-truck and spends all the money he makes selling his incredible pottery on buying land and old homes on the Chiba coast, setting up artist residencies, creating space for artist communities to take root.
I've now been the guest on many podcasts, aimed at many different kinds of listeners. This is the one for people with an academic interest in market design as a growing part of economics (as well as Scott Kominers' academic origin story, and an inside joke about a colleague at HBS:)
Why markets fail — and how to fix them (ft. Nobel economist Alvin Roth)
22.7K subscribers
Jul 10, 2026
Long before crypto made coordination programmable, Nobel Prize winner Alvin Roth was designing markets where coordination could save lives.
In this episode of First Principles, Roth tells the story of how he helped build systems for some of the hardest matching problems in the world, from where doctors train and where students go to school to how kidney donors can reach the patients who need them.
He joins Tim Roughgarden, Head of Research at a16z crypto, and Scott Kominers — Harvard Business School professor, a16z crypto research partner, and one of Roth’s former students — for a conversation about how market design moves from theory into the real world.
They explore how economic theory becomes practical engineering, whether that's matching riders to Ubers, doctors to medical residencies, students to New York City high schools, or organ donors to people whose lives depend on it. They also cover how these same problems show up in today’s crypto networks.
Roth explains why markets are not just natural forces, but engineered systems; why the details of timing, congestion, incentives, and trust can make or break a marketplace; and why some of the most important markets are the ones where simply exchanging money can’t do the work.
This is a conversation about economics at its most practical and profound: how to design systems that coordinate people, solve real problems, and sometimes save lives.
00:00 Intro: Why market design matters
04:18 The economist as engineer
08:09 When theory meets the real world
07:02 Fixing the medical residency match
15:32 Why markets unravel
18:22 Redesigning NYC high school admissions
28:05 The hidden problem of congestion
34:47 How kidney exchange saves lives
45:26 How the internet changed market design
48:25 Airbnb, Uber and smarter marketplaces
51:28 Repugnant transactions and moral economics
53:32 When markets need social support
54:32 The unexpected effects of criminalizing surrogacy
01:04:58 Preference signals and the job market 01:18:53 A broken market: resettling refugees and other migrants
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This essay was written with Nathan E. Sanders, and originally appeared in The Guardian.
Opposition to AI data centers has emerged as a primary theme in US politics, one that—surprisingly—doesn’t fall along party lines. We applaud people coming together for constructive debate on any issue, and agree that communities need to evaluate whether any economic benefits these data centers bring is worth their costs. Still, we worry that a focus on data centers obscures the larger impacts of AI on people’s lives: the concentration of power of AI companies, and their widespread political and financial influence.
Local data center opposition is grounded in legitimate concerns about misallocation of land resources when housing is at a premium, pressures on already higher energy prices, and localized environmental impact. Unlike other resource-consuming and polluting industrial facilities, data centers produce very few jobs. The fact that US opposition to data centers seems to be most fierce among lower-income communities reflects righteous indignation with an inequitable bargain, where tech companies and developers profit from exploiting local resources but offer little in return. On a global scale, their carbon footprint could grow unsustainably if usage accelerates. And all this is in aid of a technology that many fear will propagate misinformation, take their jobs, or even cause existential risks for humanity.
For some, data center opposition may feel like the only tangible mechanism for registering their concern, disapproval, or even anger about AI. The problem is that this may be exactly what the AI companies are banking on. They can overcome the protest when it matters to them, and live with a significant fraction of proposals being defeated. More importantly, focusing political opponents on the data center issue obscures the bigger prize they’re after.
While there is a staggering three-quarters of a trillion dollars being spent on data center infrastructure by US companies this year alone, this investment should be taken in perspective. The market for enterprise software, for example, is about twice this size. And it’s small compared with what these companies actually want.
AI companies have their eyes set on capturing all the value created by entire industries. The technology has arguably already conquered customer service and consumer sales. But on the horizon are bigger targets, such as enterprise software development, creative design, management and even legal services. In AI companies and their allies’ vision of the future, AI replaces teachers and doctors. The companies would rather spend time fighting resistance to how fast they are building computing infrastructure than dealing with issues of how their products should be used in those fields, or how those fields should be protected from their products.
And while data center opposition campaigns have been successful in building widespread appeal, their effectiveness in the US is mixed. They seem to be most successful when organizing against speculative, early-stage data center proposals that have a relatively low likelihood to ever see fruition. Meanwhile, advanced-stage, well-capitalized data center projects have proven to have the resources to overcome local opposition. An OpenAI- and Oracle-backed facility in Saline township, Michigan, is breaking ground on construction even after local officials voted to reject it. The developers sued the town of 3,000 and forced a settlement that involved their project going forward. Meanwhile, the Trump administration, a vigorous ally of corporate AI, has signaled its willingness to advance AI infrastructure development by overriding state objections and even using federal lands.
Also consider that rampant data center development may be a momentary spike rather than a longstanding concern. Demand for the centralized computing that data centers provide may well decline over time. The leading Chinese labs, such as Z.ai, are innovating in technical mechanisms to make frontier-class models smaller and cheaper to run. AI power users have become adept at miniaturizing open weight models, ones published free for anyone to download and use, to run locally on their own computers. Apple and Google both support infrastructure stacks for running AI models directly on mobile phones. It could be that the current mania for data centers will look like the fiber optic cable bubble from the early 2000s, as demand shifts to smaller models and AI usage on people’s own devices.
For those concerned primarily with affordability and environmental protection, singling out data center construction is misplaced. Energy rates and inflation today seem to be most visibly affected by the US-Iran war. The US is disinvesting in long-term energy security by ceding the renewable energy industry to China and actively cancelling climate commitments. Consider that 10% of global carbon emissions stem from heating buildings, which dwarfs energy use by AI and could be cut fivefold by using heat pumps powered by renewable energy. With respect to housing affordability, federal housing subsidies have changed little over three decades, in inflation-adjusted terms, even as housing costs have spiked and homeowners have enjoyed robust tax incentives.
As for AI itself, the concentration of power and wealth in these tech companies is the greatest existential risk facing society today. This means we must limit corporate power, especially corporations’ ability to exploit the public and manipulate our political system.
Opposing data centers should be just a starting point. We can advocate for states to regulate AI, to reject irresponsible uses of the technology, and shape corporate behavior. We can fight for AI computation to be taxed, so that the public can capture some of the profit of AI use while also forcing AI companies to internalize more of the energy and environmental consequences associated with its use. And we all can join the global movement for Public AI, an alternative ecosystem for AI that is developed under public control with an incentive structure to create public benefit rather than private profit.
The US midterm elections present ample opportunity for those seeking to control the AI political agenda. In the recent New York congressional Democratic primary, PACs linked to the dueling AI companies Anthropic and OpenAI spent millions of dollars lobbying for or against “AI safety“, the idea that we must urgently monitor and prevent people from using AI to cause catastrophic harms. We’re already seeing a similar dynamic play out in races in Massachusetts and other states.
Why would Anthropic and OpenAI—bitter industry rivals but fundamentally on the same side politically—support opposing viewpoints? Because they both ultimately profit from the mystique: the idea that their products are so powerful that controlling those products is the world’s most important challenge. Here’s the typical read on the dynamic. To one side (backed by OpenAI affiliates), “safety” comes from the appearance of US industry dominating AI innovation, under the slow-moving control of federal lawmakers (and without pesky state regulators in the way). To the other side (backed by Anthropic), “safety” means a heavier regulatory framework that plays to Anthropic’s posturing as the ethics- and compliance-focused AI vendor. In both cases, it’s more marketing than principled concern about safety.
Political organizers should call out and reject the AI companies’ framing of the debate, and reorient campaign agendas around populist resistance to corporate concentration of wealth and power. When AI companies pump millions into legislative races, the result should not be hyperbolic discussion of AI superintelligence. And when a plot of land in a small town is pitched as a data center site, the debate should be about more than the local costs and benefits. It should include out-of-control money in politics, and Citizens United-proof solutions to limit corporate influence like public financing and state regulation.
We all have a vested interest in what’s on the policy agenda, and what the outcomes are. Today, the greatest risk AI poses to society is the exacerbation of inequality and the concentration of wealth. The real problem is trillion-dollar AI companies and their trillionaire oligarchs cozying up to political power in Washington and governments worldwide, and using their money to enact their agenda over the popular will of the people. This is the issue we’d like to see put front and center, and it requires solutions much more extensive than slowing data center development.
We judge artists by their greatest hits. But is that fair? Lately I’ve started to question this approach.
Perhaps the truest measure of creative inspiration is a willingness to pursue a vision even at the risk of failure. By this measure, misses are just as important as hits—and maybe an even more revealing gauge of aesthetic boldness. That’s because we never really discover our true potential unless we push it to the breaking point. We go “all in” as they say in poker—even when the odds are against us.
I’ve reached this conclusion, late in life, because of my recent immersion in indie culture. I’m not alone in this—going indie is now the new normal in a creative life. We are living through a collapse in legacy institutions, and this has forced so many of us into the precarious world of freelancing.
Failure is an everyday experience for a freelancer. We pitch projects, and watch the rejections come back to us. But we can’t give up—we need to pay the bills. Even more important, we need to keep our dreams alive.
So every rejection must be followed by a new attempt. Maybe if we’re fortunate, we eventually reach a stage where we can boast about our greatest hits. But that’s late in the game.
It takes a lifetime of misses to create those hits (if they come at all). And those misses tell the real story of our passion, our resilience, our willingness to push our talent to the limit.
These speculations have led me to return to the work of filmmaker Orson Welles (1915-1985)—who I see as an inspiring role model for indie creators of the digital age. Welles is like many of us today. He lost institutional support from Hollywood studios while still in his twenties. And despite his reputation as the most innovative filmmaker of his generation—for many years his debut movie Citizen Kane won polls as the best film of all time—was forced into a precarious life as a perennial freelancer.
He spent most of his career working on projects that failed. And not because they weren’t good (see the list below)—but for other reasons. Some blame Welles’s prickly personality. Others will fault close-minded Hollywood execs. Or maybe Welles was just cursed with bad luck—problems did seem to follow him wherever he went.

You might say that even his hits were misses. His biggest early success came via a 1938 radio rendition of H.G. Wells’s The War of the Worlds, which convinced many listeners that extraterrestrials were actually invading America. Welles got plenty of publicity but was threatened with $12 million in lawsuits in the aftermath. He was lucky to escape without criminal charges.
His greatest triumph, Citizen Kane, was also anything but a conventional hit. The major theater chains refused to book it—fearing punishment from newspaper magnate William Randolph Hearst, the thinly-disguised model for Kane. So even at the peak of his career, Welles had a target on his back.
It got worse from there. He couldn’t finish the editing of his second film The Magnificent Ambersons (1942)—because FDR prodded him into going to Brazil as a cultural ambassador during World War II. So Welles was out-of-touch as the studio butchered his remarkable film, and even added a saccharine new ending. It’s testimony to Welles’s greatness that The Magnificent Ambersons is still ranked among the best movies of the era despite the meddling.
After Brazil, everything fell apart for Welles. Hollywood never forgot him, but also never forgave him. He got occasional gigs (although more often as an actor). But this brilliant filmmaker never enjoyed job security or long-term institutional support. He was the permanent indie gadfly—always pitching projects and sometimes actually starting them. But rarely finishing them.
At his death in 1985, Welles left behind at least 19 unfinished projects. Add to that the many others he abandoned in earlier years. And then there are so many Welles concepts that hardly got started at all—but were promising ideas that deserved better. Finally, Welles suffers the added indignity of achieving some commercial successes (on radio or the stage) that are now lost to us—so even these must be counted among his misses, at least from the perspective of posterity.
Below I’ve listed Welles’s ten greatest failures. But I could have easily expanded it to twenty or thirty.
I do this as testimony to Welles’s greatness. From a mercenary perspective, these might be failures, but from an aesthetic standpoint they testify to a creative force that operated at the highest level of intensity for a full lifetime.
Let this offer some solace to the indie creatives of today, who also face so much rejection. Just making the attempt—being the “man in the arena,” as Teddy Roosevelt called it—is a far grander thing than earning a steady paycheck by settling for less.
Welles paid $12,500 to Duke Ellington to create music for a film on the history of jazz. He also planned on hiring Louis Armstrong as a lead actor (he would play himself). Ellington even began work on the score. But during the controversy over The Magnificent Ambersons and his Brazilian project (see below), Welles couldn’t get backing to turn this into a reality.
Judging by the talent alone, this almost certainly would have resulted in the greatest jazz movie of the era, and perhaps of all time.
The US government sent Welles to Brazil in 1942 to build goodwill for the war effort, but without any script or clear plan for a movie. But Welles was excited by the samba music he heard and had access to technicolor film. The result was an amazing film—or, rather, it would have been. But the studio eventually dumped 200,000 feet of footage into the ocean, in order to get a tax write-off on the project.
Welles later said that he might have anticipated the great Black Orpheus film of 1959, which helped turned Brazilian music into a global phenomenon, but was waylaid (again) by the close-mindedness of Hollywood execs.
Some footage survives, most of it black-and-white, and is housed at the UCLA Film & Television Archive. Part of it was released in 1993. But this only hints at what Welles might have achieved with studio support.
Welles collaborated with Cole Porter on a Broadway musical based on Jules Verne’s famous novel Around the World in Eighty Days. Welles actually got this onstage—but had to spend $350,000 of his own money to make it happen. It failed mostly because of the enormous expense. Welles recreated a multimedia extravaganza which included a live circus onstage and required 38 separate sets.
Bertolt Brecht came backstage after a performance and told Welles that Around the World was the greatest moment in American theater he’d ever seen. But this wasn’t enough to pay the bills. Welles dreamed of turning the Broadway production into a movie, but couldn’t make it happen. So he had to watch from the sidelines as Mike Todd, one of the financial backers of the musical, adapted the same story into a megahit movie that won the Oscar for Best Picture in 1956.
Welles wrote a script for a film adaption of Tolstoy’s epic novel—and all the pieces were falling into place. The cast would include Laurence Olivier, Vivian Leigh, and Ralph Richardson—with Welles playing Pierre. The Soviet Union even expressed a willingness to let Welles use the Red Army for filming battle scenes. But the negotiations with the USSR eventually stalled, and Welles’s screenplay is now lost.
So Welles watched as a bystander (again) when, a few years later, director King Vidor and producer Dino de Laurentis turned War and Peace into a box office hit.
This was actually a success onstage, but is now lost to us—so it shows up on our list of misses. Welles believed that the supernatural elements in Shakespeare’s Macbeth could be retold through the prism of the African diaspora, with its syncretic religions and folklore—so he moved the setting from Scotland to the Caribbean. He put this onstage with an African-American cast, and sold out the theater for ten straight weeks in 1936.
Welles was just twenty years old, and already a phenom. But only four minutes of film survive to document this breakout work.
As the Macbeth project makes clear, Welles believed that Shakespeare was relevant to every time and place. So while others view Julius Caesar as a story about the Roman empire, he saw it as a cautionary tale of a republic threatened by a fascist leader—and almost a precise analog to the world crisis of the 1930s and 1940s.
Welles envisioned an reworking of Shakespeare’s play in modern dress and filmed in the style of newsreels. He planned on casting Richard Burton in the title role, and even secured financing (from King Farouk of Egypt). But Welles’s project was canceled when MGM announced a Caesar film starring Marlon Brando.
While working on Citizen Kane, Welles explored the possibility of making a follow-up movie on the life of Christ, but set in the Wild West. Welles would star and direct, and even got the support of Bishop Fulton Sheen, the most prominent American Catholic of the era. Welles wrote a screenplay and got to the point of scouting shooting locations in Mexico. But the project was shelved, and Welles shifted his attention to The Magnificent Ambersons.
Here’s another example of a failed Welles project that anticipated a later success by another director. He explained the concept to Peter Bogdanovich:
PB: Wasn’t your original Hollywood deal to make Heart of Darkness?
OW: Pretty much….I came to Hollywood and wrote the script, which was going to be a film in the first person: the camera was going to be Marlow, which is ideal for that kind of story, because he’s in the pilot house and he can see himself reflected in the glass through which you see the jungle….I did a very elaborate preparation for that, such as I’ve never done again….We designed every camera setup and everything else—did enormous research in aboriginal, Stone Age cultures in order to reproduce what the story called for. I’m sorry not to have got the chance to do it. The reason we didn’t was because we couldn’t knock $50,000 of the budget.
Welles got to the point of shooting for a single day—proof of concept for the first-person narrative scheme. But the project went no further.
Years later, Francis Ford Coppola relied on Joseph Conrad’s Heart of Darkness for his classic film Apocalypse Now, considered one of the defining movies of the era. But Welles’s version, like so many other of his most ambitious projects, never happened because of financial constraints.
After the publication of Nabokov’s bold quasi-sci-fi novel Ada or Ardor, Welles reached out to the author about turning it into a film. He even flew out to Paris and had a productive face-to-face meeting with the novelist. But the project went no further. That’s a shame—this book deserves film treatment, and Welles would have brought the right spirit of risk-taking to it
After Heart of Darkness fell through, Welles suggested making a comic farce based on the novel The Smiler with a Knife by Cecil Day-Lewis (father of actor Daniel Day-Lewis). But the studio objected to his casting decision.
Welles explained the problem to Bogdanovich:
There was an actress under contract at RKO then making a picture, called Lucille Ball, who I thought was the greatest female clown around—she could have been just superb in this picture. And they said, ‘What do you want Lucille Ball for? She’s practically washed up in pictures.’ This was thirty years ago—imagine how idiotic they were. They didn’t know what they had. So we didn’t make Smiler with a Knife.
I limited myself to ten projects. But I had to leave out many others—Don Quixote, The Pickwick Papers, Catch-22, King Lear, etc. Even so, the specifics are less important than the larger truth, namely that failure is as much a part of artistic greatness as commercial success. If you don’t encounter it (and repeatedly), you almost certainly aren’t pushing hard enough.
In our current cultural crisis, where creators feel abandoned by the leading institutions (and sometimes by the public too), this may provide some consolation—but also much need inspiration. For many of us, the hardest part of chasing our dreams is overcoming the fear of failure. From that perspective, Orson Welles still has much to teach us.
Let me close with something Welles actually finished.
Below is the trailer for Citizen Kane. Many have seen the movie, and admired its innovations, but this “coming attraction” footage is also a case study in risk-taking.
See how many intentional mistakes and mishaps you can identify—almost as if Welles was making fun of his lack of experience in filmmaking, even as he was showing off his boldness.

We are each a living story, written with those who raised us. But when my most loving co-author ghosted me, my story fractured
- by David Robson

The ‘worst’ and ‘best possible’ job at once: what it’s like to dedicate your life to documenting crimes against humanity
- by Aeon Video
I prove that competitive market outcomes require computational intractability. If P = NP, firms can efficiently solve the collusion detection problem, identifying deviations from cooperative agreements in complex, noisy markets and thereby making collusion sustainable as an equilibrium. If P != NP, the collusion detection problem is computationally infeasible for markets satisfying a natural instance-hardness condition on their demand structure, rendering punishment threats non-credible and collusion unstable. Combined with Maymin (2011), who proved that market efficiency requires P = NP, this yields a fundamental impossibility: markets can be informationally efficient or competitive, but not both. Artificial intelligence, by expanding firms’ computational capabilities, is pushing markets from the competitive regime toward the collusive regime, explaining the empirical emergence of algorithmic collusion without explicit coordination.
From Philip Z. Maymin. File under “Claims…”
The post “Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP” appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Here is a transcript of my remarks, anything from the audience (Q&A with comments) has been cut out. Excerpt:
The problem will not be how does my life get meaning, but how do I deal with all the meaning my life will have? A kind of exhaustion. And this comes up in the labor supply debates. So again, there’s one point of view like, oh, there’s AGI, there’s going to be mass unemployment. The more moderate, reasonable point of view is not that there’s mass unemployment. Many jobs still require humans. There’s comparative advantage. But total leisure time will go up. I think that’s likely the correct view, but across what time horizon?
If you think about your lives today, like I’m much busier and I’m busier because of AI. I’m working much harder. I don’t have to do that. But the point is my relative wage gradient for working harder today, it’s really quite extreme. And if I were, say, an 18 year old, I would feel I really had to work hard not to fall behind. There’s this new thing coming to the world. All sorts of people will be jumping on it. If I only start looking at it when I’m age 23, I’m behind by X number of years. So I would truly be working hard. At age 64, I don’t have to feel I need to work that hard. I can always just say if I choose to, well, I’m going to run out the clock, as they say, just kind of step back and wait until I die and I’ll be fine. I’m not going to do that.
Every time a new model comes out, I’m still excited. I used to be very excited. But they come out more and more frequently. And now I look at my calendar and I’m like, uh-oh, could you all wait a week, please? Because you want to be ready. You want to play around with it. You want to test it out. You want to talk about it with your friends. It’s a slight bit of an exhaustion. And again, for you all working here, you have access to models that haven’t come out yet or maybe will never come out. But all the time, you have fresh stimuli. And I hope, I think you must all be drenched in meaning. And you’re like, oh, my goodness, someone else tells me, look at this new model. What do I do with that?
So I think sometimes, like, when will the time come when the leisure dividend from AI arrives? No one is forcing you to work harder. But there’s a substitution effect from the higher implicit wage on your future earnings that if you work harder now, it will have a payoff. You’ll at least avoid being behind.
Interesting throughout, definitely recommended.
The post My talk at DeepMind appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

As the Sun sets, a telescope opens its eye, preparing to peer beyond its shiny dome into the sky above. Today’s Picture of the Week was taken at La Silla, ESO’s first observatory, located near the outskirts of Chile’s Atacama Desert at 2400 metres above sea level. It features the MPG/ESO 2.2-metre telescope — originally constructed by the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy and installed by ESO at La Silla Observatory — which has been observing the cosmos since 1983.
Though the 2.2-metre is small by today’s standards, it still does a lot of excellent work. The telescope hosts three instruments: a camera to pinpoint the location of gamma-ray bursts (the most energetic explosions in the Universe), a spectrograph that studies stars in detail, and a Wide Field Imager (WFI) to capture stunning images of celestial objects. The WFI, in particular, has produced dramatic visuals of colourful nebulae as well as inky black dust clouds hosting early star formation.
Since 2013 the 2.2-metre telescope has been solely used by the Max Planck Society plus Chilean astronomers. With its long-standing presence and distinctive silver dome, it still holds a special place in the hearts of many ESO astronomers, including the photographer Luca Sbordone: “I saw it first when I was an ESO student and spent a few weeks in La Silla and has been dear to me ever since.”
From declines in annual sea ice extent to the greening of the tundra, environmental change has been unfolding incrementally in the Arctic over decades. Some shifts, however, have come on more abruptly.
Satellite, aerial, and ground-based surveys spanning more than 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) across Alaska’s Brooks Range have observed stream water changing from clear to orange in more than 200 watersheds. What’s more, scientists are finding that the switch has largely taken place within the past 10 to 12 years, coinciding with a pronounced increase in air and ground temperatures.
Thawing permafrost soils, accelerated by warming air and ground temperatures, are the most likely cause of the “rusty” rivers, scientists say. They surmise that water is now encountering thawed ground and bedrock where it previously had not. Chemical weathering of minerals leaches iron, sulfuric acid, and trace metals into streams, akin to the process behind acid mine drainage, which similarly pollutes and discolors water near abandoned mines. Microbes may also contribute to the color change by producing a soluble form of iron as they digest plant and animal matter in thawing soils, which then becomes oxygenated, or “rusts,” in flowing streams.
Researchers have only recently begun to comprehend the prevalence of rusting rivers in Arctic regions. In 2024, a team of National Park Service, U.S. Geological Survey, and university scientists documented 75 northern Alaskan streams that recently changed from clear to orange. With subsequent exploration, mostly using high-resolution satellite imagery, they added 200 more observations. The locations of these discolored streams, published in NOAA’s 2025 Arctic Report Card, are shown in the map above.
“I’m still surprised by the broad spatial scope of our observations,” said Brett Poulin, environmental toxicologist at the University of California, Davis. He and his collaborators have been monitoring the region’s streams since 2013—when many were still clear. “Now we’re seeing hundreds of streams that have changed color seemingly overnight, including in designated National Wild & Scenic River corridors,” he said.




Observations from NASA/USGS Landsat satellites allowed the team to determine the timing of several of these changes. For the 2024 study led by ecologist Jon O’Donnell of the National Park Service, the team calculated a redness index based on red and blue spectral information sensitive to the color of iron hydroxides (i.e., rust) in water. After analyzing a subset of streams, they found that some turned rusty around 2018 and stayed that way, while others had periods of rusting and then returned to being clear.
One stream that underwent a sudden change is the Agashashok River in Noatak National Preserve (above). In 2019, a jump in redness values appeared in Landsat data along this waterway. Ground and aerial surveys the same year found an orange section of the river several kilometers long, and vegetation around nearby groundwater seeps and springs appeared blackened. “The Landsat archive has proved uniquely useful for investigating the historical onset of rusting rivers where creeks and rivers are sufficiently large,” Poulin said.
Having gained a better picture of the extent and timing of the phenomenon, the researchers want to focus on the conditions driving the orange color’s onset and the yearly and seasonal changes. A deep snowpack may play a role some years, for example, by insulating the soil from cold winter temperatures and enabling permafrost thaw earlier in the summer. In addition, periods of higher streamflow throughout the year can dilute the discoloration. The team is planning a geophysical survey along a hillslope where acidic groundwater is discharging to the surface to investigate the subsurface geology, hydrology, and permafrost.
Further, they seek to quantify the effects on water quality and aquatic ecosystems. Communities rely on these river systems for drinking water and subsistence fisheries, and a decrease in stream biodiversity has already been documented in some locations coincident with water turning orange. The researchers now are looking deeper into the patterns of toxicity over time and space, such as where rusting rivers overlap with known spawning areas for migratory fish.
“The rusting river phenomenon is a good example of an unforeseen consequence of permafrost thaw in the Arctic,” Poulin said. “Further, it’s consistent with the emergence of acid rock drainage following cryosphere loss across Earth.”
NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using stream location data from O’Donnell, J.A., et al., and Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Lindsey Doermann.
Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

Sediment eroded from ice-capped mountains splays out across a broad river valley on Russia’s Severny Island.

Using satellite data, researchers connected harmful algal blooms with warm water and low water levels at one of Colorado’s largest…

Spring melt along Alaska’s Kuskokwim River caused ice jams and flooding.
The post Wild, Scenic, and Increasingly Rusty appeared first on NASA Science.

SpaceX plans to conduct its next Starship launch as soon as July 16 to test fixes to issues from the previous flight and deploy functioning Starlink satellites.
The post SpaceX gears up for Starship Flight 13 appeared first on SpaceNews.
Nikita “Tonsky” Prokopov:
The rule of thumb is:
If I take a screenshot of your app at any moment, you should be able to explain what I see.
Why care about every frame? It builds trust. Users can’t see the code, so UI is the only way for them to judge the quality of the app. If UI looks good, that means developers had time to polish it, which means that they probably spent a comparable amount of time to iron out the code. It’s a heuristic, but a reasonable one.
Now, what does it mean in practice? I can think of a few things:
- No white flashes between screens.
- No partially loaded content.
- No relayout while content loads.
- Internally consistent. If one part of the UI says “1 update available”, another part should not say “Checking for updates...”
- Precise animations.
Animations often end up being forgotten. A UI might look great in both start and end states but very janky in between.
“Every frame perfect” is a great mantra for UI craftsmanship. If you care about every frame, that discipline will be palpable, even though almost no users will ever examine your animations and transitions frame-by-frame, and most will happen too quickly to see in real time. If you cut corners on interstitial states “because no one will notice”, you’ll start cutting corners elsewhere.
Guilherme Rambo:
Apple ships the
fmcommand-line tool in macOS 27, which can be used to run inference with the local system model or Private Cloud Compute from Terminal or scripts. You know what else can run command-line tools? Mac apps! 😃I decided to spend some of my Codex tokens and take GPT 5.6 Sol for a spin. I asked it to create this Swift package. All it does is provide a
LanguageModelimplementation that uses thefmcommand-line tool under the hood, meaning that any Mac app can use the Private Cloud Compute model without requiring a special entitlement from Apple.The main limitation is that this will not work for sandboxed Mac apps, so any Mac app distributed via the Mac App Store won’t be able to use it.
But for developers of Mac apps distributed outside the Mac App Store, this provides a simple and entitlement-free way to use Private Cloud Compute in their apps.
Use sparingly and at your own risk.
This is a workaround for Apple’s current limitation that only grants access to Private Cloud Compute to “developers in the App Store Small Business Program with fewer than two million first time App Store downloads”. Hence Rambo’s clever name for the framework.
Elon Musk, linking to his own tweet from March that “Sam Altman is super good at scamming”:
He takes scamming to a whole new level
homeboy you’re the one sellling public market investors on short-term space datacenters
Musk:
We start flying them next year. Maybe you can come see them if your parole officer approves.
After stealing an open source AI charity, you then stole all of Apple’s phone technology! Wow.
What do you plan for an encore? That’s tough to beat.
(All spelling, capitalization, and punctuation sic.)
These are two of the CEOs of the most valuable companies on the planet. Say what you want about it, but Musk’s Twitter/X is like nothing else that’s ever existed. Screenshot of the thread for posterity, and an XCancel link for those icked by X itself.
After linking to Stacks, his remarkable new modern HyperCard player, I made the terrible mistake of clicking around the rest of Jeff Halter’s website, and fell upon Lunacy:
Created by Ben Haller and released in the early ’90s as part of the Macintosh More After Dark software package, Lunatic Fringe was unique among screensavers in that it was not just a passive animation to watch, but an interactive game! Toggling the Caps Lock key while the screensaver was running popped you into a space shooter where you could fly around, collect power-ups, and blast a variety of baddies all in pursuit of a high score. It was a blast.
Running Lunatic Fringe on a modern computer has been a challenge. Fringe Player by Greg Parker filled this need during Apple’s PPC and Intel era, but is not supported on modern Apple platforms. Lunacy brings Lunatic Fringe to the present: a native Swift app with a built-in emulation engine that runs the original module, unchanged, on modern Apple platforms.
Lunatic Fringe is one of my all-time favorite classic Mac games. Lunacy is a great modern player, including CRT simulation to make the game look a lot more like it did back in the day.
Well this is just delightful:
- Run HyperCard stacks directly on your modern Mac. No emulator required!
- Browse the Internet Archive’s HyperCard collection and run stacks with one-click.
- Period-accurate typography.
- Sound, instruments, and MacinTalk speech synthesis.
- Cross-stack navigation.
Stacks is a really beautiful native Mac app, and its presentation of classic HyperCard stacks is exquisitely faithful to the era. It’s simultaneously Mac-assed 2026-style and Mac-assed 1987-style. Crackerjack work from developer Jeff Halter.

There’s not a lot I have to add to the reporting on Lindsey Graham’s sudden and unexpected death. The longtime South Carolina senator died yesterday evening after what his office is calling a “brief and sudden illness.” (Other unconfirmed reports point to a heart attack and cardiac arrest.) Obituaries are referring to him as a consistent foreign policy hawk, a stalwart Trump supporter. Both true. But there’s another feature of his personality and political career that is key to understanding the man. He always needed a daddy. Or let’s say a political leader. A top dog.
Graham was first elected to the House in 1994 and was very much part of the Gingrich Revolution. He was a leader — though perhaps not the most carnivorous — of the push to impeach Bill Clinton. He was one of the impeachment managers in the Senate trial. So in the ’90s he was one of those right wing foot soldiers of Gingrichism. But then Gingrich got bounced from the speakership and Congress, and a couple years later Graham got elected to the Senate. And after not too long he fell in with John McCain, who was then in the most heterodox period of his Senate career — after the 2000 presidential run and before he had to start getting a bit more into line to try again in 2008. (Hard to recall now but there were real hints or at least rumors that McCain might switch parties.) But the point is that Graham became very, very much McCain’s guy, almost like his deputy or top follower. And his politics, his political style if not always his policy positions, became very, very different. A lot of the interventionist stuff either came from McCain or was deepened and amplified by him.
McCain-era Graham was a very, very different guy than he was in the ’90s era. He was anything but a partisan warrior. Like McCain, he leaned into friendships and alliances with Democrats. A big pal of both men was none other than Joe Biden. He was also one of the most vocal critics, beginning in 2015, of Donald Trump.
But then just a few months into Trump’s first term, in 2017, McCain was diagnosed with brain cancer and died the following year. Almost simultaneous with Trump’s reign in Washington, McCain was mostly gone from the scene, largely absent from the Senate. This kicked off another transformation, or we might call it an adoption.
Of course, Graham isn’t the only Republican senator who made his peace with Donald Trump. Ted Cruz almost led a convention rebellion against Trump. But he found his way to being another pretty loyal foot soldier in pretty short order. (For Graham, the pyrotechnics over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation was a pivotal moment.) But Graham’s transformation was always a bit more than other Republican senators making their peace with the new regime. Graham really, really wanted to be Trump’s guy. And he really did become Trump’s guy. If you observed the transformation closely, it always seemed more than just an effort to secure his political standing in the order. He really wanted to be one of Trump’s right hands and all that.
What I’ve described above are pretty major political and even personality transformations. The first one, from Gingrich to McCain, might be seen as part of the different personality of the Senate or perhaps a partisan softening moving into later middle age. But the second one points to something different, more of a pattern. I don’t know how these shifts will figure in his obituaries. In general, they’ve gotten pretty little attention over the years, even though they’re certainly not hidden or unknown. Graham was a natural follower. He needed a top dog, a daddy figure he could arrange himself around. In the interest of saying something positive about the departed, Graham did remain a supporter of NATO and even more an opponent of Russian expansionism in eastern Europe. Indeed, he had just returned from one of many trips to Ukraine and there announced that he’d secured Trump’s blessing for a tightened round of sanctions against Russia. Still, he managed to work those angles within the confines of Trump loyalty.
There are worse things you can say about a man than that he was a loyal follower, or perhaps a born follower. There are others one could say about Graham, though it’s not the moment for that. But this feature of his personality and his 30 years in Washington politics deserves more attention, and, I think, is essential to understanding the man.
Paulo Andrade:
My last post on using SwiftUI to build a Mac-assed app got a bit more traction than I expected. It was mentioned on Mastodon several times, included in iOS Dev Weekly, inspired May’s edition of the Swift Blog Carnival, and was eventually mentioned by John Gruber, arguably the person most to blame for popularizing the term “Mac-assed”, on Daring Fireball.
All this attention also resulted in an engineer from Apple reaching out with some notes. We exchanged a few emails, I filed a few radars, and now that WWDC 27 is behind us, this post serves as a small update to the issues I wrote about before.
There’s real progress here, but I think my main point still stands: SwiftUI is now seven years old and it does not make it easy to create great Mac apps.
These examples are from Windows, but the same degradation is true for the standard look for MacOS alerts too. There was a time when system UI chrome was improving in clarity, everywhere. Today we live in an age when it’s degrading in clarity, everywhere. It’s rather inexplicable.
(Lord’s day). Up, and meeting Tom Willson he asked my pardon again, which I easily did give him, telling him only that it was well I was not a woman with child, for it might have made me miscarry.
With Sir J. Minnes to church, where an indifferent good sermon. Here I saw Mrs. Becky Allen, who hath been married, and is this day churched, after her bearing a child. She is grown tall, but looks very white and thin, and I can find no occasion while I am here to come to have her company, which I desire and expected in my coming, but only coming out of the church I kissed her and her sister and mother-in-law.
So to dinner, Sir J. Minnes, Commissioner Pett, and I, &c., and after dinner walked in the garden, it being a very fine day, the best we have had this great while, if not this whole summer.
To church again, and after that walked through the Rope-ground to the Dock, and there over and over the Dock and grounds about it, and storehouses, &c., with the officers of the Yard, and then to Commissioner Pett’s and had a good sullybub and other good things, and merry. Commissioner Pett showed me alone his bodys as a secrett, which I found afterwards by discourse with Sir J. Minnes that he had shown them him, wherein he seems to suppose great mystery in the nature of Lynes to be hid, but I do not understand it at all.
Thence walked to the Hill-house, being myself much dissatisfied, and more than I thought I should have been with Commissioner Pett, being, by what I saw since I came hither, convinced that he is not able to exercise the command in the Yard over the officers that he ought to do, or somebody else, if ever the service be well looked after there.
Sat up and with Sir J. Minnes talking, and he speaking his mind in slighting of the Commissioner, for which I wish there was not so much reason. For I do see he is but a man of words, though indeed he is the ablest man that we have to do service if he would or durst. Sir J. Minnes being gone to bed, I took Mr. Whitfield, one of the clerks, and walked to the Dock about eleven at night, and there got a boat and a crew, and rowed down to the guard-ships, it being a most pleasant moonshine evening that ever I saw almost. The guard-ships were very ready to hail us, being no doubt commanded thereto by their Captain, who remembers how I surprised them the last time I was here. However, I found him ashore, but the ship in pretty good order, and the arms well fixed, charged, and primed. Thence to the Soveraign, where I found no officers aboard, no arms fixed, nor any powder to prime their few guns, which were charged, without bullet though.
So to the London, where neither officers nor any body awake; I boarded her, and might have done what I would, and at last could find but three little boys.
And so spent the whole night in visiting all the ships, in which I found, for the most part, neither an officer aboard, nor any men so much as awake, which I was grieved to find, specially so soon after a great Larum, as Commissioner Pett brought us word that he [had] provided against, and put all in a posture of defence but a week ago, all which I am resolved to represent to the Duke.
This was the seventh week of videos from the 250 to 250 Project that we’re producing to honor the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. This one is a particularly fun week for me: in the wide range of stories are many that I insisted we include, and then a dream list of people took time out of their crazy busy schedules to narrate them.
I hope you all are enjoying these are much as we are. Our biggest problem now is that there are way more that we’d like to produce than we have the space for.
A reminder: we designed the videos to emphasize the agency of Americans—mostly everyday Americans—to change the country. Each falls into a category that defines what it means to be an American, including community, democracy, innovation, mobility, civil rights, education, conservation, and creativity.
You can follow the project at the sites listed below, or under “videos” at my own YouTube page: Heather Cox Richardson. Or just wait until I send out the week’s roundup.
Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads
Corey O’Connor is the 62nd mayor of Pittsburgh. Mayor O’Connor and his wife, Katie, serve as official ambassadors for the Carnegie Library of Pittsburgh’s summer reading program. Mayor O’Connor tells us how “robber baron” Andrew Carnegie gave much of his fortune to building almost 2,000 libraries across the United States.
Dr. Sherrilyn Ifill is a civil rights attorney, expert, and scholar. She is the former president of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund and the founder and director of the 14th Amendment Center for Law & Democracy at Howard University School of Law. Ifill shows us the significance of the Fourteenth Amendment, which established that anyone born in the United States is a citizen.
Alison Brown is a Grammy-award winning banjoist, co-founder of Compass Records and recovering investment banker. Brown traces the history of the banjo, from its roots in enslaved Africans’ musical traditions to its lasting influence on American music.
Katie Boyd is a prominent media personality, fitness and spiritual lifestyle coach, and founder of Katie Boyd’s Miss Fit Club. Boyd examines the Miss America pageant, whose century-long history reflects America's slow reckoning with women’s rights and racial equality.
Shana Bushyhead Condill is a citizen of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI), and Executive Director of the Museum of the Cherokee People in Cherokee, North Carolina. Shana Bushyhead Condill recounts the Trail of Tears, the brutal forced removal of Indigenous peoples whose survival remains a testament to Native resilience that endures today.
Patterson Hood is a writer and performer, best known as a co-founder and lead singer of the rock & roll band the Drive-By Truckers. He is the son of musician David Hood, a founding member of the Muscle Shoals Rhythm Section. Here, Patterson celebrates the Swampers, the Muscle Shoals session musicians who crossed racial lines to create some of America’s most iconic soul and rock records.
Min Jin Lee is the award-winning author of Free Food for Millionaires and Pachinko, a finalist for the National Book Award. Her fiction explores the Korean diaspora and identity, and she currently serves as New York State Author Laureate. Lee profiles Nam June Paik, the Korean American artist who became the father of video art and foresaw our connected digital future.
Antony Blinken served as the 71st U.S. Secretary of State. Here, Blinken profiles Dean Acheson, the statesman who helped build the rules-based international order—from the Marshall Plan to NATO—that stabilized the postwar world.
Dr. Megan Kate Nelson is an American historian and a Pulitzer Prize finalist, and is the author of new book The Westerners: Mythmaking and Belonging on the American Frontier. Nelson follows the epic journey of Lewis and Clark, who mapped the American West and transformed the young nation’s knowledge of its vast new territory.
Bob Crawford, the bassist for the Avett Brothers, is also a historian, podcast host, childhood cancer advocate, and author of America's Founding Son": John Quincy Adams, from President to Political Maverick. Crawford presents the inspiring life of President John Quincy Adams, who used his post-presidency to fight against slavery.
Rosanne Cash is an author and Grammy-winning singer-songwriter. She is one of the few women in the Nashville Songwriters Hall of Fame and the only woman to receive the Edward MacDowell Medal in Composition. Cash recounts the 1970 Kent State killings, when National Guardsmen opened fire, leaving four students dead and forcing a national reckoning over protest and police violence.
Elinor Lutu-McMoore is the Director of the American Samoa Weather Service and Meteorologist-in-Charge at the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Pago Pago. Lutu-McMoore tells how an 1889 cyclone that destroyed a fleet of warships in Samoa spurred Congress to build the modern American Navy.
Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads
Last night the Department of Justice subpoenaed reporters from the New York Times over a story the newspaper published on Wednesday. Julian E. Barnes, Eric Lipton, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt reported that the Secret Service had security concerns about the new Air Force One Boeing 747-8 given to the U.S. by Qatar. So, when tensions escalated with Iran while Trump was in Türkiye for the NATO summit, they asked the president to use one of the other, older, Air Force One planes for his return journey.
Trump and White House officials pushed back strongly against the idea that the new plane had any security problems after pouring what appears to have been hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars into renovating the plane. But, according to Adam Gramegna of Military . com, U.S. officials told CBS News that the speed with which the plane was rushed into service meant that it does not have the same protections as the older planes.
According to Devlin Barrett, Glenn Thrush, and Maggie Haberman of the New York Times, the story that his prized plane was not as good as the older ones enraged Trump, and the White House called in FBI director Kash Patel to find the two anonymous sources who leaked it. Patel spent about 8 hours on Friday running an investigation from the White House, rather than FBI headquarters, before the reporters received the subpoenas.
U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton, whom Trump has nominated to be the next director of national intelligence, issued the subpoenas. The reporters are ordered to testify before a federal grand jury in Manhattan on Wednesday “in regard to an alleged violation of federal criminal law.” The Department of Justice said the subpoenas are related to “the crime of leaking national security information.”
The Justice Department emphasized that “reporters are not the targets. Those leaking classified information are.” But issuing subpoenas to U.S. journalists, who are protected from government interference by the First Amendment, is a huge red flag. As former Time magazine editor Rick Stengel noted: “The reporting that the Times journalists have been subpoenaed for is exactly the kind of journalism the First Amendment is designed to protect: matters involving national security and taxpayer dollars. Reporting that embarrasses a president is protected speech.”
David McCraw, senior vice president and deputy general counsel for the Times, said: “The appearance of Federal law enforcement agents on the doorstep of news reporters should shock the conscience of any American who believes in the Constitution and the press freedom it protects. Our journalists report the facts and advance the American public’s right to know how their government is operating and their taxpayer dollars are being used. This brazen act should be seen as nothing more than an attempt to prevent the public from knowing what is happening in their country by intimidating journalists from doing their jobs.”
By 11:18 PM on Friday, Trump’s fury had turned back to Iran. He posted on social media that if Iran tried to assassinate him, “Locked and Loaded” missiles would begin to rain down on the country “to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran—PRAISE BE TO ALLAH!”
Today he turned his anger toward those questioning his mental acuity, particularly New York Times journalist Maggie Haberman, who commented on MS NOW about his reference in Türkiye to the “Islamic State of Japan.” At 12:23 PM he lashed out at “Maggot Hagerman” and then, to refute her claims, wrote that he “just finished a perfect physical at Walter Reed, I do it every six months, and I requested another Cognitive Test, the only President to do so, three times, and I aced them all—Got every question right. Few people in Washington, D.C., could do so, including Maggot and her flunky associate, Jonathan Swan. I would be willing to bet they couldn’t get 50% of the questions right.”
The White House said Trump was referring to a physical he underwent in May.
Then, at 3:16, the president’s account posted a screed of almost 450 words complaining angrily that “I win the Election IN A LANDSLIDE against the entire Dumocrat Party,…against almost 100% negative press and Fake News,…especially Maggot Hagerman, one of the most unattractive people in the News “Business,” and her lightweight assistant, Jonathan Swan…. All I do is WIN, often against all odds,” yet no one compliments him on his great successes.
Here he may have had in mind Thursday’s news story from Catherine Rampell of The Bulwark about his claim on social media on Monday that Walmart would be “dropping the price of ground beef by almost 15 percent” “at my Administration’s request.” Rampell reported that a Walmart spokesperson told her a different story: the price cuts were part of usual summer rollbacks, which had begun the week before Trump took credit for them. Rampell noted that Trump “looks for opportunities to slap his name on politically useful things that companies were already planning to do—seasonal sales, major investments, hiring, et very much cetera.”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai clarified on social media that the president’s “announcement was that the sale is extending all summer long,” adding, “The media’s obsessive need to try to undermine any good news when it affects President Trump is pathological.”
A rant about the news media took up most of Trump’s long post, as he insisted that those reporting his bad poll numbers and policy failures “have no credibility…. If the Election was held again today, I would win by even more—Actually, much more!” he posted. “The Dumocrats don’t have what it takes, their Policies are wrong, and they are, generally, stupid people. They are going COMMUNIST because they are a desperately ‘sinking ship,’ and there’s not a thing they can do about it.
“Instead of writing inaccurate, false articles, for over 10 years now, shouldn’t it be time that they say, ‘We give up, we can’t beat him, there seems nothing we can do.’ Isn’t it time they say, ‘TRUMP IS THE BEST POLITICAL ATHLETE OF ALL TIME! CONGRATULATIONS, MR. PRESIDENT. YOU HAVE BEATEN US FOR 10 YEARS, AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO WASTE OUR TIME FIGHTING YOU ANY LONGER. WE CAN’T WIN. DO A GREAT JOB, SIR, RUNNING OUR COUNTRY. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!’”
Journalist Aaron Rupar used a common meme often used to respond to unreasonably long posts. “I ain’t reading all that,” he commented. “I’m happy for u tho. Or sorry that happened.” Conservative lawyer George Conway wrote: “A severely mentally ill man has control of the launch codes for America’s nuclear arsenal, but it doesn’t seem that many people care.”
Almost 450 words evidently weren’t enough. At 4:54 he reiterated the themes of the long post in a shorter one, then a minute later, accused “the Dumocrats” of being communists. A minute after that, he claimed: “The Radical Left Lunatics, often referred to as Dumocrats, have lost control of their Party.”
Apparently, media criticism still stung. At 5:27, Trump took on reports of the high cost of his damaging renovations in Washington, D.C. Posting photos of what he said was “the horrible front of the White House,” he continued: “The Radical Left Dumocrats criticize me for spending so much time bringing our White House back to the Glory of 100 years ago—Actually, it will be far better than that, and they will not shame us for bringing our Great and Brilliant Monuments to the past and the future back to levels never seen before. This is what we are doing all over Washington, D.C., and, in different ways, with our Country, itself!”
But his confidence that American voters will support Republicans in the 2026 elections is shaky enough that he continues to call for the Senate to rig them. At 6:07 he reposted what purported to be a poll from right-wing loyalist Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) claiming that 97.2% of supporters want the Senate to take up the voter suppression SAVE America Act when it goes back into session next week, while only 2.8% want the Senate to take up “Anything else.”
Meanwhile, on Friday a Pentagon official told Rebecca Turco of WJLA 7News in Washington, D.C., that National Guard troops will stay activated in Washington through Inauguration Day 2029 “until law and order are fully restored in our Nation’s Capital.”
“So,” Bill Kristol of The Bulwark commented. “[M]ilitary troops under the direct control of Trump and Hegseth will be on the streets of our nation’s capital for the rest of Trump’s term. The rationale—they’re here to help with a crime emergency—is laughable. But of course the real reason is ominous.”
—
Notes:
https://www.military.com/justice-department-subpoenas-reporters-air-force-one-security
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/us/politics/trump-air-force-one-security.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/us/politics/air-force-one-trump-cost.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/us/politics/white-house-patel-investigation-times.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/business/media/new-york-times-trump-subpoenas.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-just-finished-physical-walter-reed-2026-07-11/
https://thehill.com/homenews/5964144-trump-slams-maggie-haberman/
X:
KushDesai47/status/2075391411692703948
Bluesky:
atrupar.com/post/3mqff6vjpwk2m
gtconway.bsky.social/post/3mqfon5ggfc2d
billkristolbulwark.bsky.social/post/3mqevpptips24
Whatever the disappointments and scandals with the candidates themselves, the Trump administration war on voters, voting and election outcomes is well underway.
It is only going to get more contentious, not less.
In the last week or so, we have been inundated with reports of rape allegations in Maine leading to withdrawal of Democrat Graham Platner as a candidate for Senate, hypocritical voter address fraud charges about Attorney General Ken Paxton as a Senate candidate in Texas, and internecine fighting among Democratic progressives in Michigan and Colorado, as well as in New York City.
Between character flaws hidden and those leapt upon by opponents, we have entered the political silly season, where personalities and advertising seem to dictate more about our national direction than voter concerns. The activity has renewed speculations about Congressional majorities that will emerge in November
But amid all of it, we have witnessed a parade of anti-voting moves by the administration. After a series of court setbacks, Team Trump is moving to threats and pressure campaigns to influence voting procedures as all as outcomes. On Thursday, for example, Trump used his newly granted Supreme Court powers over independent agencies to fire or force resignation of the three remaining members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, eliminating yet another obstacle towards seeking control over state elections.
The force of the anti-voting is based on Trump’s personal animosity and desire for revenge against whatever caused seven million more votes against him in 2020 than for Joe Biden. As we know, Trump takes losses hard, and starts blaming others, regardless of any facts, findings or investigations.
The ostensible reason this time involves immigrant votes already prohibited by law, but the subtext seems to discourage voting among minority groups in urban areas, to halt mail ballots and to intimidate voter turnout in Democratic areas.
Media Matters argues that a plot is underway in which Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence, aided by recently hired right-wing journalist John Solomon, is seeking to disclose documents purporting to show significant foreign interference in past elections. Trump would use that theory as the “predicate” to declare a “national emergency” and try to seize control of the elections in November.
Meanwhile, the legal front is quite active with dozens of lawsuits playing out in the courts and other Justice Department actions:
—Voter Registration Threats. Trump’s Justice Department has sent threatening letters to all state election officials warning that they could face criminal prosecution over possible noncitizen voting, escalating the administration’s pressure campaign even after courts have repeatedly rejected its effort to seize unredacted voter rolls. The letters from Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, who leads the Civil Rights Division, demand that states explain within five days how they plan to comply with federal voter eligibility laws. Of course, the administration has offered no evidence of widespread noncitizen voting, already prohibited in elections for federal officials.
Despite the euphemisms, excuses and word dancing, it is voter blackmail and a clear abuse of presidential powers.
Indeed, the Trump administration has lost several recent court cases that would have required federal review of state voter rolls. Basically, judges have upheld Constitutional authorities for states to run elections, overruling the Justice Department arguments about any name-check against Homeland Security lists of undocumented migrants.
Meanwhile, Homeland Security threatened to withhold FEMA disaster emergency funds from states that do not comply with federal voter database reviews.
We can’t even agree – legally – on what federal database to states to check their voter rolls. In Washington this week, a judge said Homeland Security cannot force states to us its modified Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system to certify registered voters’ citizenship status and berated government lawyers for failing to notify her about a related case in Florida where a federal judge in Florida ruled the opposite for four Republican-led states — Florida, Iowa, Indiana and Ohio.
—Challenge on Timing. The Justice Department is challenging provisions of the National Voter Registration Act’s 90-day quiet period, which generally bars systematic voter purges close to a federal election. A Justice memo claims that the 90-day cutoff “does not apply to the removal of non-citizens who were never eligible to register in the first place,” while acknowledging that the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals just said otherwise.
—Trump Election Monitors. Dhillon announced the Justice Department will send federal election monitors to 15 jurisdictions in Arizona, Michigan, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia, all states where Trump has claimed election issues. State officials basically have called it intimidation, but said their procedures welcome monitoring, just not interference. In particular, Justice targeted three majority-Democratic cities with large minority populations in Michigan for the state’s upcoming primaries. All the targeted areas are all considered battleground states
—Mail Ballots. In Massachusetts, federal District Judge Indira Talwani upheld a ruling that had blocked the U.S. Postal Service from implementing a Trump executive order not to deliver mail ballots in states that did not comply with voter registration reviews. It means the order is blocked in in 23 states and the District of Columbia. Another judge ruled that Trump cannot block absentee ballots before a full hearing can be held.
—Election Workers. In Georgia, federal District Judge William Ray II, a Trump appointee, blocked Justice Department demands for the identities and personal information of thousands of people who helped run the 2020 election in Georgia’s Fulton County, calling the request “unreasonable.” He said the court would not enforce any subpoena.
—SAVE America. Of course, Trump is obsessed by his Save America legislation that would require voters to show identification matching birth records at all elections, eliminate mail ballots and most absentees, and generally seek to limit voting registration, timing, balloting and counting. Though it seems unable to pass the Senate, Speaker Mike Johnson now says he will attach it to must-pass bills for national defense.
The elections for Congress in November are shaping up to be a vote on the ability of an angry president to control all elections.
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Vaidas Urba is one of my most well-informed commenters. In recent weeks, he has been helping me to better understand how LLMs can provide useful feedback on my interpretation of stabilization policy during the 2008-09 recession. Today, I’ll present an evaluation of market monetarist claims about 2008 generated by the Fable LLM, which Vaidas sent me by email. I prefer to rely on Vaidas for this sort of exercise, as he has a much better idea than I do about how best to utilize LLMs.
Beyond the paywall, I will respond to the Fable output, offering my own point to view. To be clear, I view Fable’s evaluation of market monetarism to be of very high quality, better than what you’d get from most economists. In the end, I have substantial disagreement on a few points, but in every single case it is based on subtle questions of interpretation—none of the Fable responses are “dumb”. Do not interpret my responses as an implied critique of LLMs.
In the prompt below, think of the HANK model as a mainstream macro model that puts more weight on fiscal policy than does the market monetarist model. In a follow-up, I’ll show the results when Vaidas asked the same question from a HANK perspective, and not surprisingly the result was slightly less favorable. (Recall that LLMs are somewhat obsequious.) Future posts will also look at what happens when Fable is asked to look at both responses, and see which one it liked best. We will also examine what happens when Fable is asked to predict where I would disagree with its analysis.
This was Vaidas’s prompt:
You are a discussant preparing for macroeconomics seminar. The topic of the seminar is the thesis:
Market monetarist policy prescriptions would have been more impactful mitigating the severity of Great Recession compared to the policy prescriptions of HANK [Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian] models.
Identify and explain the top 5 arguments in favor of the thesis. Identify and explain the top 5 arguments opposing the thesis. Based on the arguments, provide your ultimate verdict with a reasoned justification.
Because the Fable response is a bit long, I will not indent the output:
1. Timing: the severity was locked in before fiscal tools could arrive. The catastrophic quarters were 2008Q3–2009Q2. The Fed held rates at 2% on September 16, 2008 — two days after Lehman — citing inflation risk even as TIPS breakevens collapsed. An NGDP level target would have mandated aggressive easing by mid-2008, while 200bp of conventional space remained. ARRA wasn’t signed until February 2009, after the worst of the collapse; expectations-driven monetary policy acts through markets in days, while fiscal transfers face legislative and disbursement lags.
2. Level targeting mobilizes expectations automatically. Under NGDPLT, any shortfall implies faster expected catch-up growth, which raises current spending — bygones aren’t bygones. The proof of concept is FDR’s 1933 devaluation (Temin–Wigmore; Eggertsson 2008), where a regime shift reversed deflationary expectations almost overnight. A credible NGDP commitment in 2008 could have prevented the collapse in nominal spending expectations that converted a housing correction into the Great Recession.
3. Monetary offset makes fiscal-first prescriptions second-order. The 2013 test case: sequestration plus the payroll-tax expiry (~2.5% of GDP consolidation) coincided with steady growth because QE3 offset it — as Sumner and Beckworth predicted against mainstream Keynesian forecasts of contraction. If the monetary regime pins down aggregate nominal spending, HANK-style transfers are hostage to the Fed’s reaction function; fixing the regime is logically prior.
4. NGDP stabilization treats the debt problem HANK identifies — at the root. Debts are nominal, so the ~8–10% NGDP shortfall from trend crushed borrowers’ incomes against fixed obligations: exactly the Fisher/Mian–Sufi amplification mechanism. Sheedy (2014) shows NGDP targeting functions as optimal risk-sharing between debtors and creditors in incomplete markets. Preventing the nominal income collapse beats compensating households after balance sheets implode.
5. Scale and feasibility. The nominal shortfall exceeded $1 trillion; transfers of that size were politically impossible (the ~$800bn ARRA was a bruising fight, and stimulus appetite died after 2010), whereas the Fed’s balance sheet requires no appropriation. And as real-time advice, market monetarism actually existed in 2008–09; HANK models (Kaplan–Moll–Violante, 2018) were formalized only years later.
1. HANK microfounds away the market monetarist transmission mechanism. Once at the ZLB (December 2008), NGDPLT works almost entirely through expectations of future policy — precisely the channel HANK discounts. McKay–Nakamura–Steinsson (2016) show forward guidance loses most of its power when constrained households respond to current cash flow rather than promises. The thesis leans on the one channel the rival framework shows is weak.
2. MPC heterogeneity makes targeted transfers mechanically potent. Roughly a third of households are hand-to-mouth, including the “wealthy hand-to-mouth” (Kaplan–Violante 2014), and the 2008 rebate studies (Parker et al.) confirm high spending responses among them. Transfers and UI extensions deliver purchasing power directly, while monetary easing routed through channels that were broken in 2008–09: refinancing blocked for underwater borrowers, impaired bank lending, and wealth effects accruing to low-MPC households (Auclert’s redistribution channel).
3. The shock was a balance-sheet/financial shock, not merely nominal. Mian and Sufi show consumption collapsed first in high-leverage counties — before Lehman and before NGDP fell — implying causation ran from household balance sheets to spending to NGDP. A promised NGDP path cannot recapitalize a bank in October 2008 or fix an underwater mortgage; debt relief and targeted transfers address the actual shock rather than its nominal symptom.
4. Credibility: the “concrete steps” problem. At zero rates, hitting an NGDP level path requires the public to believe in instruments whose measured effects were modest (Woodford 2012; Eggertsson–Woodford irrelevance results) and whose promises face time inconsistency — future FOMCs must willingly tolerate overshooting. Japan’s persistent undershooting even after 2013’s dramatic regime shift illustrates the limits. A transfer check requires no beliefs; it clears.
5. The 2020–21 natural experiment vindicates the HANK playbook. COVID policy was HANK at scale — direct transfers and expanded UI — and nominal demand fully recovered (and overshot) within 18 months, versus NGDP never regaining its trend after 2008 despite QE1–3 and guidance. Cross-sectional multiplier evidence (Nakamura–Steinsson 2014; Chodorow-Reich) supports multipliers above one at the ZLB, which also weakens the 2013 monetary-offset story: with the Fed pinned at zero, it wasn’t offsetting so much as independently easing.
I narrowly accept the thesis — but on more limited grounds than market monetarists claim. The decisive consideration is what “severity” means: it was determined in roughly three quarters, during which (a) the Fed still had conventional ammunition and committed a documented, avoidable expectations error, and (b) no politically feasible fiscal package could have arrived fast enough or large enough to offset a trillion-dollar nominal collapse. An NGDP level target operating in mid-2008 plausibly truncates the collapse itself, and by stabilizing nominal incomes it would have blunted the very debt-deflation amplification HANK emphasizes. Prevention dominates treatment for this particular counterfactual.
But the margin is thin and conditional. The strongest opposing argument — that HANK undermines the expectations channel the whole market monetarist edifice rests on — bites hard once the ZLB was reached, and it’s why the verdict flips if the question were instead about engineering the fastest recovery from 2009 onward, where the 2020–21 evidence favors the HANK playbook decisively. The honest synthesis is that the frameworks answer different questions: market monetarism specifies the right nominal regime; HANK specifies realistic transmission and incidence. The optimal counterfactual policy is NGDPLT as the anchor plus HANK-informed automatic fiscal stabilizers as insurance for exactly the moments when expectations channels fail — which suggests the thesis is right about 2008, but for reasons that make it a poor guide as a general rule.
* * *
OK, this is me again. Although Fable suggested that it narrowly accepted the market monetarist thesis, I don’t believe it accepted the core claims of market monetarism. Below the paywall, I’ll respond to a number of specific points.
I grew up in the 1980s in a small house with only one bathroom shared between four people. The floor was linoleum. There was a carport instead of a garage, and we had one beat-up used Toyota Tercel hatchback. I don’t remember when we got our first color TV, but when I was young we had a black-and-white one that my grandmother gave us. Our furniture was all second-hand and we kept the couches covered up with worn old blankets.
When I was young, I mowed lawns for money. As a high school kid, I signed up to pick cotton by hand (!!) for an agricultural research project at Texas A&M University, for minimum wage1. I have also worked as a cashier. Twice in my life, I have been a member of a labor union, and I have marched in a strike.
I have never once considered myself part of the working class.
Why not? Because I have never thought of class as being defined by a present snapshot of someone’s lifestyle or material circumstances. Instead, I always thought of class as being about someone’s potential. And I grew up always knowing that my economic potential went far beyond the rather humble circumstances of my early childhood.
For one thing, my family was upwardly mobile. My grandparents could probably be called “working class” in their youth — my grandmother worked in a sweatshop as a teenager, my grandfather wore cardboard in his soles because his family couldn’t afford shoes. But after World War 2, thanks to the GI Bill and rapid economic growth, my ancestors advanced into the middle class, with jobs like optometrist, athletic coach, and registered nurse. My father had a PhD and a tenure-track academic job that promised to pay a lot more after a decade of work. We weren’t rocketing up the income distribution, but we were clearly climbing.
Our humble lifestyle in the early and mid 1980s reflected this future orientation. Our family income was probably around the 35th-38th percentile,2 but this was because we were a one-earner family. My mother chose to spend the first seven years of my life as a housewife — which she did in order to make sure my sister and I got a thorough, accelerated education. We lived an abstemious life in part because we saved as much money as we could.
What were we saving for? My college education, and my sister’s. We were smart kids; we knew we would go to good schools, and we did.3 We knew our college educations would allow us to get good jobs that paid more than our parents ever made. And we were right.
As for the union membership, I was part of the grad student instructors’ union at the University of Michigan, and the professors’ union at Stony Brook. When I marched in a strike in 2008 to secure a raise and health benefits, I was already getting paid to complete a PhD that would eventually increase my earning power even more. Even as I scarfed free food from charcuterie boards at departmental events to save money, I was building up my future earning power at a rapid clip.
Class in some countries is about the past; you can be a shabby aristocrat if your grandfather was the Earl of Whatevershire. In American policy discussions, class is often implicitly about the present — where you lie in the income and wealth distributions this year. But on some level, everyone knows that class in America is really about the future.
Milton Friedman had a theory that sort of gets at this idea, in fact. It’s called the Permanent Income Hypothesis. “Permanent income” is the income you can expect to make over the course of your life. If you’re a shabby grad student living off of cup ramen, your current income is low, but your permanent income is high, because you know you’re probably going to make a lot of money in the future.4
But class in America isn’t just about the money you will make in the future; it’s about the money you could make if you wanted. I know schoolteachers who live modern middle-class lifestyles despite having graduated from the best schools in the country. They could have gone to work for companies and made decently big bucks, but they preferred a more laid-back lifestyle. Whether their children should count as middle class or upper class is an interesting question, but they themselves are clearly the American equivalent of Europe’s shabby aristocrats, because they forsook the upper-class lifestyle voluntarily.
Meanwhile, there are millions upon millions of Americans for whom working in high-paying salaried jobs was just never an option, and never will be. They will spend their entire careers driving long hours in a truck, or stocking shelves at a store, or installing smoke alarms in people’s houses, simply because this is the best they can do.
This explains at least part of why most low-income Americans traditionally consider themselves middle class. They expect to be middle-class at some point; they don’t think they’ll be trapped driving a truck or stocking a shelf forever.5 And it could also explain why the number of Americans calling themselves “lower class” rose in the 2000s and 2010s, as growth in incomes temporarily stagnated and the potential for rapid downward mobility became clearer after the financial crisis:

I’m being very approximate here, of course, and I’m speaking for the country more than I probably should. In fact, America has less class consciousness than many other societies, and when we do talk about the idea, there’s rarely agreement on what it should mean. I wrote about the contested nature of class in American society two years ago:
But I’m speaking from my own personal experience because I think it illustrates something important about class in America. Although we disagree about what the concept should mean, most of us feel deeply uncomfortable with a notion of class that ignores future possibilities. When we see a guy proudly wear a United Auto Workers jacket even though his only UAW experience was as a grad student instructor at Harvard University, something about it feels deeply inauthentic:
There’s nothing wrong with this, of course. It’s not fake; the UAW really does include grad student unions these days. And MacKay could easily be doing this not out of rank political opportunism, but from a sincere desire to express solidarity with union workers from all walks of life.
And yet Evan MacKay is really not in the same boat as people who stand on an assembly line, even if those people make more money than he does. He could, if he wanted, go work in private equity and live in a mansion on Cape Cod. Your typical UAW member could not do that. There’s a sense in which his jacket’s implicit claim of “we’re all in this together” papers over that harsh reality.
Progressives have had an extremely tough time appealing to Americans with low incomes and low education levels. Decades ago, those people tended to vote for Democrats; in 2024, they broke solidly for Donald Trump. Even as they’ve become more and more progressive, the Dems have become the party of well-educated high earners:
Even people who identify themselves as “working class” have been abandoning the Democrats:

Joe Biden tried very hard to win over labor unions, but the Teamsters — once a Democratic stalwart — refused to endorse him.
The socialist faction might style itself a friend of the working class, but it faces the same problem. Zohran Mamdani won his mayoral race thanks to the support of higher-income, educated voters, while his defeated “establishment” opponent did better with lower-income people, Blacks, and Hispanics. Other socialist victories have seen a similar pattern.
This is not actually a new problem. A century ago, in The Road to Wigan Pier, George Orwell complained bitterly that the British socialists of his day were middle-class intellectual elites who failed to win over the working class because they were completely out of touch:
The first thing that must strike any outside observer is that Socialism, in its developed form is a theory confined entirely to the middle classes. The typical Socialist is not, as tremulous old ladies imagine, a ferocious-looking working man with greasy overalls and a raucous voice. He is either a youthful snob-Bolshevik who in five years' time will quite probably have made a wealthy marriage and been converted to Roman Catholicism; or, still more typically, a prim little man with a white-collar job, usually a secret teetotaller and often with vegetarian leanings, with a history of Nonconformity behind him, and, above all, with a social position which he has no intention of forfeiting. [emphasis mine]
Half a century later, Barbara and John Ehrenreich wrote something similar about the American left in their essay on “the professional-managerial class”. The “PMC”, as it has become known, was beginning to dominate the political left even in 1977; today, it arguably forms the Democratic Party’s most important voter base. The DSA faction that’s now becoming more influential within the party is disproportionately drawn from this class — 80% of DSA members had college degrees in 2021, and more than a third had postgraduate degrees (more than twice the national average).
Although they might not have realized it, what the Ehrenreichs were describing was a result of the rising economic importance of human capital. The “youthful snob-Bolshevik[s]” Orwell described in the 1930s were few in number, but the growth of knowledge industries has made this group of people far more numerous — and far more influential in our culture and our politics.
Because of its Marxist inheritance, the idea of the working class is very important to American socialists. But that’s been increasingly hard to square with the fact that voters with lower income and lower education have been steadily drifting away from the Democrats, and form relatively little of the DSA’s membership. One response has been for some socialists to paint themselves as the actual working class. This is a less charitable interpretation of Evan MacKay’s UAW jacket, and it’s also something that has come up in casual conversation. This is from my post back in 2024:
In January 2017, I was at a house party in Berkeley. People were discussing why Hillary Clinton had lost to Donald Trump, and one woman — a law student at the University of California — declared that it was because Clinton had ignored the “working class”. I asked her to describe someone in the working class. She imagined a “sex worker” who had a bunch of student loans and a humanities degree that she wasn’t able to use… I had expected her to describe a unionized auto worker or steelworker or a stereotypical Midwestern guy in a hard hat,…I was utterly unprepared for her to instead describe someone from her own educated progressive social circles…To this law student, the “working class” was simply those of her friends who were most down on their luck.
But on some level, I think this just doesn’t ring true, even within socialist circles. Class in America is just too deeply connected with earning potential and human capital; most people can’t really bring themselves to believe that someone with a diploma from a good school is “working class”, even if they happen to be pulling an unlivable wage as an adjunct professor and sleeping in their car at the moment.
So socialists are always on the lookout for champions who seem more authentically working class. They thought they found such a champion in Graham Platner, who recently dropped out of his Maine Senate race due to rape allegations. This is from a New York Times story about how Platner was recruited:
Last July, in a small town in coastal Maine, three progressive, self-styled recruiters of economic populists showed up at the blue-shingled house of Graham Platner, a little-known oyster farmer and Marine veteran who lived largely off government benefits…They knew his name from local labor organizers and activists, and they had watched a video on the internet of him talking about oysters. Struck by his left-leaning ideology, his working-class affect and his gravelly voice, they became convinced that he could win a Senate seat in Maine — and quickly persuaded Mr. Platner of the same…The recruiters — Dan Moraff, Leanne Fan and Morris Katz — told Mr. Platner he was “the one,” a “hero of the movement,” “a historical figure” who could be “leading a revolution,” according to half a dozen people with knowledge of their conversations.
Is Platner actually working class? You can argue it either way. He went to a good college but dropped out due to psychological issues. He’s the son of a lawyer and an architect, but failed to make much money with his oyster farming business, and mostly lived on welfare benefits. He doesn’t fit cleanly into the kind of class categories I described above.
But the people who picked him do! Dan Moraff and Morris Katz are both educated scions of rich families — Moraff’s ancestor founded the company that became Toys “R” Us — while Leanne Fan is a sociology PhD student. If the NYT’s reporting is correct, they appear to have picked Platner based entirely on stereotypes and vibes — he seemed rough and tough and down on his luck, so they assumed he was a real working class guy who could connect with other working class guys. This seems to have convinced them that Platner was a messianic figure who could bring wayward working-class voters back to the Democratic fold.
As many people have said, if Trump is “a poor person’s idea of a rich person,” Platner is basically the opposite — a rich person’s idea of a working-class person.
This episode doesn’t make me particularly optimistic about Democrats’ ability to reconnect with their rapidly vanishing blue-collar base. I don’t think it’s impossible, of course. But it would probably require moderating on social issues — DEI, immigration, etc. — instead of just running candidates that pattern-match to the kind of people that bullied rich lefty kids back in junior high.
The Platner saga also makes me a bit pessimistic about American society as a whole. Although we don’t talk about class much, it’s separating us more and more, and the cultural gap is now so big that lots of Americans seem unable to even imagine what Americans from other social classes are like.
The integrating institutions that once pushed us together across class lines — church, the military, schools in mixed-income neighborhoods — have waned in importance. College has grown to fill some of that void, but less than half of the country is really prepared to handle the rigors of a college education, and so it ends up dividing our society more than it unites it. Mass media has fragmented into the millions of little social verticals that make up the internet. We’ve sorted ourselves geographically — knowledge workers live together in progressive urban enclaves on the coasts, while blue-collar types inhabit the small towns and down-market suburbs.
I read Tocqueville, and I miss the roiling, fluid, egalitarian young democracy that I never knew. I think back to my childhood, in a little house on a dusty side street in a small Texas town, and I feel like I can just barely recall the fading embers of that stubbornly classless democracy. Something happened between then and now. We let the Old World sneak up on us.
In case you’re wondering what picking cotton by hand is like, it sucks. Other than my teenage friends and myself, the only people willing to do it were illegal immigrants from Mexico. Working alongside illegal immigrants, knowing that it was just a summer experience for me but would be their job for the rest of their life, gave me a deep respect for illegal immigrant laborers. Yes, they violated my country’s sovereign border, but they did it so that they could do backbreaking low-paid menial labor for their whole lives, just to feed their families back home. And they worked harder than my friends and I did, even knowing that their future would probably never get any better than that. Those are the people whose lives of backbreaking labor put cheap food on your table.
For households, it was more like the 45th percentile. My dad’s salary was almost twice the median personal income of the time. Part of the reason my childhood sounds a bit shabby is that the whole country was a lot poorer back then; one-bathroom houses without garages weren’t so unusual.
I went to Stanford; my sister got into Harvard but turned it down to go to the University of Michigan, because of my family’s quixotic belief that public schools are good. That turned out to be a very expensive decision on her part; Stanford, with its incredibly generous need-based financial aid policies, charged me zero tuition, while my sister had to pay out-of-state tuition despite a merit scholarship. Fortunately, my family had saved money, and so was able to pay for my sister’s college without making her take out student loans.
Friedman’s hypothesis turned out to be wrong — he thought only permanent income mattered for consumption, but it turns out that temporary ups and downs matter too. But expectations of future income are a factor that determines people’s current behavior, so Friedman’s intellectual effort wasn’t wasted.
For the upper-class and rich people who identify as “middle class”, it’s probably more of a combination of A) humility/social desirability bias, and B) the fact that they’re comparing themselves to other rich people in their social circles.
Today’s post is another installment in a series of posts about AI. AI is clearly a major technological shock, and it may take years before we fully understand its economic and social impacts. What we do know, however, is that this technological shock is occurring in the context of a pre-existing environment of extreme wealth and political inequality. And this pre-existing condition will magnify the downsides of the AI shock.
Imagine for a moment what might have happened if AI had arrived in the America of the 1950s or 1960s, when income and wealth inequality were very low by historical standards. In those days, the tax code was strongly progressive and industry regulation, including antitrust policy, was robust. Under those conditions it’s very likely that the destructive effects of AI would have been limited and contained.
Instead, however, AI is emerging in an American economy and society that are already strongly oligarchic, with enormous wealth and political influence in the hands of a handful of billionaires. The current concentration of wealth at the top is not only immensely greater than in the 50s or 60s, but is in fact far greater than during the Gilded Age. This state of affairs is both a cause and an effect of policies that benefit a tiny elite, such as low effective taxes on capital and high incomes, weak or nonexistent enforcement of worker protections and anti-trust, drastic reductions in programs that benefit ordinary Americans, and so on.
And in the context of a political and economic environment that is heavily tilted towards the hyper-wealthy, the negative impacts of AI will probably be larger than if they had appeared in a country with a more level playing field. That is,unless the very impact of AI leads to a much-needed pushback against American oligarchy.
So although AI is addressed in today’s primer, the content will mostly be about oligarchy rather than AI: documenting how America has changed since our politics turned right in the 1980s, and why wealth and power have become so concentrated. At the end of the post, however, I’ll speculate about how pre-exiting oligarchy will channel the potential of AI in destructive directions — and what we could do to change that.
Beyond the paywall I will address the following:
1. Economic oligarchy: The rise of the .0002%
2. The economics of oligarchy
3. The politics of extreme wealth
4. How oligarchy will shape AI’s impact
5. Paths for policy
Release: sqlite-utils 4.1
The first dot-release since 4.0 a few days ago, introducing a number of minor new features.
sqlite-utils insertandsqlite-utils upsertnow accept a--codeoption for providing a block of Python code (or a path to a.pyfile) that defines arows()function orrowsiterable of rows to insert, as an alternative to importing from a file. (#684)
sqlite-utils already had features that allow you to pass blocks of Python code as CLI arguments, for example this one for the sqlite-utils convert command:
sqlite-utils convert content.db articles headline ' def convert(value): return value.upper()'
Allowing blocks of code to generate new rows directly was on obvious extension of that pattern:
sqlite-utils insert data.db creatures --code ' def rows(): yield {"id": 1, "name": "Cleo"} yield {"id": 2, "name": "Suna"} ' --pk id
sqlite-utils insertandsqlite-utils upsertnow accept--type column-name typeto override the type automatically chosen when the table is created. This is useful for CSV or TSV columns such as ZIP codes that look like integers but should be stored asTEXTto preserve leading zeros. (#131)
A long-standing feature request which turned out to be a simple implementation.
- New
table.drop_index(name)method andsqlite-utils drop-indexcommand for dropping an index by name. Both acceptignore=True/--ignoreto ignore a missing index. (#626)sqlite-utils querycan now read the SQL query from standard input by passing-in place of the query, for exampleecho "select * from dogs" | sqlite-utils query dogs.db -. (#765)
Two more small features. I had Codex review all open issues and highlight the easiest ones!
sqlite-utils upsertcan now infer the primary key of an existing table, so--pkcan be omitted when upserting into a table that already has a primary key.
Another Codex suggestion, an obvious missing CLI feature from a Python library improvement that shipped in the 4.0 release.
table.transform()andtable.transform_sql()now acceptstrict=Trueorstrict=Falseto change a table’s SQLite strict mode. Omitting the option preserves the existing mode. (#787)- The
sqlite-utils transformcommand now accepts--strictand--no-strictto change a table’s strict mode. (#787)
These two were inspired by Prefer STRICT tables in SQLite by Evan Hahn, which did the rounds on Hacker News today. Evan pointed out that:
Unfortunately, I don’t think there’s a way to ALTER a table to make it strict. I think you have to copy the data out of the non-strict table into the strict one.
That's exactly what the sqlite-utils transform mechanism does, so I extended it to add the ability to switch tables from strict to non-strict and vice-versa.
Here's the GPT-5.6 Sol xhigh Codex transcript I used to implement those new strict table features. One of the most useful prompts I ran was this one:
use uv run python -c and manually exercise the new .transform(strict=) option, see if you can find any edge-cases or bugs
Effectively telling the model to manually test its work, outside of the automated tests it had already written. This turned up two minor issues that we then fixed.
Tags: projects, python, sqlite, sqlite-utils, annotated-release-notes, ai-assisted-programming
I started the summer’s scything this week. It’s the fifth consecutive year we’ve let the lawn grow into a meadow and then I’ve scythed some/all of it over July and August. This year I have a deadline of the end of July to have enough mown to put up a marquee for a birthday party. Jeopardy!
These days I’m free of the tyranny of the alarm clock but I tend to wake up early in the summer anyway so I’ve been able to get some scything in before it gets too hot (we’ve had afternoon temperatures up to 32ºC again this week). This week I’ve usually been up before six, had some breakfast, then done 45 minutes of scything before sitting in the shade, letting the sweat cool, while drinking coffee.
I had a slow start this year because I couldn’t get the blade sharp and couldn’t work out why. I was starting to think we’d have to resort to the strimmer. I’d been peening the blade (hitting it with a hammer on a jig) and then honing it with stones, but it just didn’t cut well.
After consulting the internet I realised I’d forgotten how hard I needed to hit the jig to have an effect on the blade’s edge. The couple of YouTube videos I’d watched to remind myself were all, “use a relaxed grip,” and “let the hammer do the work.” But after really whacking the thing all along its edge, twice, I could see the difference and, at last, it could cut again.
After that, five morning sessions scything, and I’ve mown about 270m² at an average speed of 1.2m²/minute, which is not bad for me. I’m not sure how much there is to go if I do the whole meadow. Maybe it’s up to 1,000m² in total?
I haven’t done much cardio for the past month or so, what with the heat and my injured toe, so this deadline is getting me back into it despite the weather at 7am still being too hot. Average heart rate around 133BPM, maximum 154BPM, on my last go.
§ At the start of the week my oldest friend D came to stay for a couple of days. We went to Hay-on-Wye and browsed a few bookshops, I bought a couple of books, and had lunch. Tooo hot to walk around much though. It’s probably not true to say that over the past year I’ve spent more time browsing second-hand bookshops than I have actually reading books but I’m not sure how not true it is.
Then we went to my third Weirdshire gig which was much busier than the previous ones, presumably because both groups were local to Hereford, so had plenty of support from friends, family and fans. Support was Celtic Vagabond – one guy on vocals, guitar and banjo, and another on synth and whistles – who made a good psych-folk-rock racket. The main act was Sproatly Smith, a seven-piece who were often a bit too whimsically folky for me but occasionally picked things up a bit. Another interesting live night out.
§ This is not important news but our toaster – which I bought nearly 25 years ago – stopped working this week: it won’t stay down. I’ve disassembled it and determined that the magnet which holds things down is still functioning as it should but, for reasons I can’t figure out, the contraption isn’t being held in place. Frustrating and I can’t see a solution.
§ Every few months I look at the basic traffic stats for the Pepys site and note them down. Recently the monthly page views have leapt up to 350,000 from around 120,000. Most of this is from Singapore and China, whose populations presumably haven’t suddenly discovered a love of a 17th century London diarist. Mythic Beasts do, I believe, block a bunch of dodgy traffic, and Cloudflare’s Analytics “exclude bots”, but clearly plenty gets through.
Having just checked the stats for my own site, what you’re reading now, it’s even more extreme: 193,00 page views in the past month, 169,000 of which are from those two countries. Grrr.
§ On Wednesday we went down to the church for the annual visit from a touring theatre group who put on a production of Pickwick Papers in the old abbey’s walled garden. It’s a beautiful setting although the audience of rural (nearly all) pensioners with their elaborate picnics is one of this area’s “I don’t belong here” scenes for me.
I always admire the energy of the performers, five of them taking on multiple roles in heavy costumes in the summer evening sunshine, but I soon lost all interest in the play. It was all a bit panto (derogatory) and I had no interest in the episodic antics of these bumbling men. Such an odd choice, unfortunately.
§ Those Flickr app changes had me once again wondering what the alternative is, just as I do whenever it comes to paying the annual Flickr Pro fee (£74 last time). I use Instagram (despite the awful Meta-ness) to share the same photos with friends because almost no one I know posts to Flickr these days. I treat Insta as entirely ephemeral, so Flickr is more of a “permanent” online place for pictures.
I’ve written all the code for mirroring my Flickr photos on a Django website so making a nicer front-end and adding an interface for uploading new photos is feasible. But do I want to run another Django website? Or even host them on this one? Could I run something like the PHP-based Lychee on shared hosting? I don’t love its design.
Ultimately even if self-hosting photos was free I guess it’s worth the Flickr cost to not have to think about maintaining a site. These days “not having to think about it” is my number one criteria for stuff on the web. So long as Flickr keeps going and they don’t screw things up…
§ We watched Mission: Impossible II this week and it was pretty bad. Would have been better if they’d cut everything except the few minutes of Anthony Hopkins doing some acting.
§ The toe is still getting better and only aches when I put more weight on it, like when I swing a scythe several hundred times each morning.
2. Solar mirrors to turn night into day? (NYT)
3. How does the butterfly retain the memories of the caterpillar?
4. The Taliban declares war on smartphones.
6. Why are U.S. ambulance rides so costly?
7. Richard Hanania on The Sopranos.
The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
It’s 1 a.m. You’ve counted every sheep in the flock, and the melatonin gummy you took an hour ago has done little more than leave a faint chalky aftertaste. For many people, that’s the moment they begin looking beyond traditional sleep supplements and discover a new generation of nighttime gummies designed with cannabinoids and complementary wellness ingredients.
Over the past few years, sleep gummies have evolved from simple melatonin-based formulas into more sophisticated blends featuring CBN (cannabinol) , a cannabinoid being studied for its potential role in relaxation and sleep support. Many products also combine CBN with ingredients such as L-tryptophan , vitamin B6 , botanical extracts, CBD , or low doses of THC , depending on the intended experience. Rather than relying solely on synthetic melatonin, some formulations are designed to support the body’s natural sleep-related processes through multiple complementary ingredients.
With dozens of brands now competing in this space, choosing the right product can be challenging. Ingredient quality, cannabinoid ratios, third-party testing, and formulation philosophy often matter more than marketing claims or flavor alone.
In this guide, we’ve compared five of the most established cannabinoid sleep gummy brands available today. Each product is evaluated using practical criteria that matter to consumers, including cannabinoid content, ingredient transparency, the presence or absence of melatonin, third-party laboratory testing, overall formulation quality, and value. Whether you’re looking for a THC-enhanced nighttime gummy or a melatonin-free cannabinoid option, this comparison will help you make a more informed decision.
Quick answer: TribeTokes ranks #1 for its multi-pathway formula — Delta 9 THC or CBD paired with a 20mg CBN dose, L-Tryptophan, and B6 — offered in both intoxicating and THC-free versions. Charlotte’s Web is the pick for a CBN-only, no-THC formula from a long-established brand. Cornbread Hemp wins on USDA organic certification and whole-plant sourcing. Slumber stands out for a fast-acting formula aimed at sleep onset specifically. Koi is the value pick for buyers who want a full-spectrum option without a deep dive into formulation details.

TribeTokes CBN gummies for sleep are built around what the brand calls a multi-pathway approach: instead of relying on one ingredient to do all the work, each gummy combines a cannabinoid for sedation (CBN), a cannabinoid or trace THC for relaxation, and the raw materials — L-Tryptophan and Vitamin B6 — that the body converts into its own melatonin. No synthetic melatonin is added.
The lineup breaks down into a few formats depending on whether you want a psychoactive effect or not:
A few things push TribeTokes to the top of this list specifically:

Charlotte’s Web is one of the longest-running names in hemp, and its Stay Asleep gummies take a narrower approach than TribeTokes: 20mg of CBN isolate per serving, no melatonin, and specifically no CBD combined in (the brand’s own guidance suggests CBD and CBN together may not improve results, based on internal research). It’s built for people who fall asleep fine but wake up partway through the night, rather than for sleep onset. Vegan, gluten-free, and third-party tested with published COAs, with the brand’s broader Sleep Gummies line adding CBD and melatonin for a separate onset-focused product.
Cornbread Hemp’s differentiator is sourcing, not cannabinoid engineering. The gummies use a full-spectrum, USDA-certified organic hemp extract processed through the brand’s flower-only extraction method, which means trace CBN and CBC show up naturally rather than being dosed in deliberately — a meaningfully lower CBN level than a dedicated sleep formula like TribeTokes’ or Charlotte’s Web’s. No melatonin, vegan, pectin-based rather than gelatin. The tradeoff is that buyers looking for a specific, verified CBN milligram count won’t find one here; this is a “whole-plant, trust the process” formula rather than a precision-dosed one.
Slumber’s Pure Sleep and Deep Zzzs gummies use a full-spectrum extract plus a proprietary “Stay Asleep Complex,” with a 20mg CBN dose and a formula the brand markets as fast-acting — onset in roughly 5 to 15 minutes rather than the 30- to 90-minute window typical of edibles. Slumber has also run an internal, self-funded sleep study with several hundred participants; it wasn’t independently peer-reviewed, but it’s more real-world data than most brands in this category publish. Good option if slow onset is specifically what’s been a problem with other edibles.
Koi’s Complete Nighttime Rest gummies use a full-spectrum extract, giving them a broader natural cannabinoid profile than isolate-based competitors, at a lower price point than most of the brands on this list. It’s a reasonable entry point for buyers who want to try a full-spectrum sleep gummy without committing to a premium price tag, though it doesn’t carry the dose transparency or organic certification that the brands ranked above it offer.

If you want the most configurable, dose-transparent option — with a real choice between a THC-free and a THC-inclusive version of the same formula — TribeTokes is the strongest overall pick on this list. If your priority is a specific niche (no-THC CBN isolate, USDA organic sourcing, the fastest possible onset, or the lowest price), Charlotte’s Web, Cornbread Hemp, Slumber, and Koi each earn their spot for a specific kind of sleeper.
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The post Top-Rated Sleep Gummies: 5 Best Edibles for Relaxation and Restful appeared first on DCReport.org.
One drug future may be happening first in Estonia, hard on the Russian border.
The NYT has the story :
“We wish we still had a fentanyl problem,” said Raigo Aas, the chief prosecutor for organized crime in Estonia.
"The first new drugs to arrive, known as nitazenes, sent mortality rates skyrocketing again, proving even more addictive and harder to treat or quit. New varieties keep popping up, too, some more than 40 times stronger than fentanyl.
...
"Exceedingly powerful substances are being churned out with such speed that the agencies created to stop them are baffled, racing to keep up.
...
"Just as science has made plastics, medicines and foods phenomenally more varied and abundant, it has revolutionized illicit substances. Once grown in the soil, dependent on rain, sun and crop cycles, illicit drugs today are increasingly formulated in laboratories, with very few constraints.
"And with each iteration, the drugs grow more terrifying. It’s not just the overdoses and deaths they bring: Their incredible potency makes recovery much harder, deepening addiction and, by extension, the crisis it creates.
...
“We really thought the fentanyl period had taught us how to handle an opioid crisis,” said Kristin Mikko, a health coordinator in Estonia’s Ministry of Social Affairs. But the new drugs, she said, are “something different. They are so much more lethal.”
and this:
"Yet cychlorphine was so new at the time that it wasn’t even illegal yet in Estonia; the authorities couldn’t charge him for it. The drug didn’t become banned in Estonia until this past spring.
“It makes our work harder,” Rait Pikaro, a former drug police head, said of the constantly shifting drug landscape. “It never stops.”
In The Nationalization of American Science I warned that the Trump administration’s rewriting of the seemingly mundane Regulation for Federal Financial Assistance was a tremendous threat to America’s historically successful decentralized system of science funding. Many others are now sounding the alarm.
It’s not surprising that organizations like the AAAS oppose the rule, albeit with unusually strongly worded dissents:
This latest move is a brazen power grab by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to buck the will of Congress and the American people and will make future discoveries less likely. If this rule becomes final, Americans’ hopes for future cures, national security and economic strength will rely on the scientific sensibilities of the nation’s chief bureaucrat. Alzheimer’s disease will not be cured by a budget analyst from either political party.
But we are now seeing strong pushback from independent thinkers such as:
Grayson Logue writing at The Dispatch:
A sweeping new rule proposed by the Trump administration could remake how that money is awarded and give the president and his political appointees discretion to cancel funding or target recipients for virtually any reason—with little opportunity for recourse.
White House officials argue the new rule is necessary to assert more accountability over federal grantmaking, but observers fear the shift will expand opportunities for politicization, abuse, and even corruption for an administration that has already demonstrated a penchant for using the levers of the federal government to punish partisan enemies and reward ideological allies.
if I was trying to ruin American leadership in scientific research this is pretty much the kind of rule I would write…One of the genuine difficulties with observing the second Trump term is that the assault on state capacity and impartiality has been so multipronged that it is difficult to keep track of everything going on. But these proposed rule changes are monumental and catastrophic.
and Noah Smith:
MAGA’s attack on science is even worse than it looks…despite science’s overwhelming popularity and public trust, Trump and his administration are launching an unprecedented and devastating attack on American science — cutting funding, and forcing science projects to undergo ideological review by government commissars.
It may be that the Trump administration has pushed too far, but my real worry is that we are losing an equilibrium. Science was never completely independent of politics, of course, but even at the worst of times, funding was decentralized and the culture-war material that dominated the headlines was never more than a tiny fraction of the whole. Like an independent judiciary, independent science has been an American virtue. COVID policy, gender policy, and now the Trump administration’s weaponization of these mistakes may have destroyed that equilibrium.
As I wrote in my original post, we are adopting the loser policies of authoritarian nations but those policies are the norm elsewhere for a reason. Centralized control of science is the default because it serves the people in power of whatever party. Decentralization is the fragile exception—a historically unusual achievement that is easier to destroy than rebuild.
Addendum: And here is Andrew Gelman.
The post The Trump Administration’s Threat to Scientific Research appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
A deft bit of stage direction in Shaw’s Pygmalion, introducing the character of Mrs. Higgins, has been stuck in my head since I first read it in high school:
There is a portrait of Mrs. Higgins as she was when she defied fashion in her youth in one of the beautiful Rossettian costumes... In the corner... Mrs. Higgins, now over sixty and long past taking the trouble to dress out of the fashion, sits writing...
You have to do a double-take to appreciate the insight in this thumbnail sketch, and it is worth unpacking. Normally, we assume that it is keeping up with, and conforming to, current fashion that takes effort. As this sketch suggests, this view is mistaken, and things are rather more complicated.
We make this mistake because we often lazily conflate genuine indifference to fashion (which takes no effort) with being unfashionable (which takes as much effort as being fashionable). To be indifferent to fashion is to make essentially random sartorial choices while being oblivious to the consequences. But to be unfashionable is to earnestly misdirect effort to conform to the wrong fashion culture, such as one that’s identifiably a season or two older than the prevailing one, or one that fails subtle signaling tests while passing easier ones.
The difference between the indifferent and the unfashionable is the difference between the outlaw and the unwitting criminal. The former is simply outside the jurisdiction of a taste culture, and therefore largely invulnerable to any social sanctions it might capable of imposing. Not being invited to parties does not matter if you do not care to go to parties. The indifferent make utilitarian decisions ignoring considerations of taste. The unfashionable person though, transgresses the prevailing culture of taste, while sincerely intending and trying to conform to it, and as such, represents a policing problem for the fashionable. The choices of such individuals are what are generally labeled crimes of fashion.
Crimes of fashion that manifest through unfashionable choices are of two sorts, only one of which can be properly attributed to tastelessness, and judged and punished accordingly, with greater harshness.
The first sort is the result of simple ignorance and disconnection from the social core of a culture of taste, rather than lack of discernment or aptitude. Those who are unfashionable simply because they lack access and mentorship can acquire tasteful comportment, as was the case with Eliza Doolittle.
The second sort of crime of fashion though, is more serious: Attributable to an inability to acquire the appropriate sort of discernment and literacy despite being sufficiently immersed in the culture and materially equipped to participate in it. It is this second sort of fashion criminal who is usually charged with tastelessness, and policed and punished through particularly aggressive acts of contempt, exclusion, and humiliation.
The fashionable, the unfashionable, and the indifferent, then, are the basic types one encounters in and around a taste culture. We will refine our models of these and give them better names in a moment.
Mrs. Higgins though, belongs to none of these types.
In Pygmalion, the introductory thumbnail sketch reveals Mrs. Higgins to have been, in her youth, guilty of high treason — someone who committed transgressions against a prevailing culture of taste while being a literate insider of it.
For someone like this, conforming to prevailing fashion is an entirely effortless matter. High effort for her was associated with conscious transgression. I know nothing of women’s fashion, but fortunately ChatGPT does:
Mrs. Higgins would have come of age roughly in the 1860s and 1870s, when respectable upper-middle-class British women were expected to dress according to the highly structured fashions of the day: crinolines giving way to bustles, tightly corseted waists, elaborate trimming, and an emphasis on displaying wealth and propriety. Fashion was ornate, highly codified, and closely tied to social respectability.
The “Rossettian costume” refers to the aesthetic associated with Dante Gabriel Rossetti and the broader Pre-Raphaelite Brotherhood and Aesthetic Movement. Women in Rossetti’s paintings typically wore:
loose, flowing medieval- or Renaissance-inspired gowns,
uncorseted or lightly corseted silhouettes,
rich but subdued fabrics,
long, naturally arranged hair,
little emphasis on the latest Paris fashions.
To adopt that style in everyday life was not simply to wear different clothes; it was to signal allegiance to an artistic and intellectual subculture. It rejected mainstream Victorian ideals of propriety and commercial fashion in favor of beauty, craftsmanship, medievalism, and artistic individuality. Figures associated with the movement—including William Morris and Oscar Wilde a generation later—encouraged “artistic dress” as a critique of conventional taste.
Mrs. Higgins, who once helped pioneer a new taste culture by subverting prevailing ones, is now old enough to require neither the validation of her individual tastes that transgression can supply, nor driven by the sort of youthful sensibility that is capable of being entertained by the thrilling bloodsport of it.
Equally, her conforming to the contemporary culture of fashion in later years is not a mark of anxious attachment to it, but enlightened transcendence of it.
This is not an incidental bit of color in the characterization of Mrs. Higgins. It is integral to her role in the play, as someone who can see through her son’s theatrics and is unimpressed by them. She is more deeply fluent in the culture Henry Higgins is attempting to hack at a superficial level, and correctly predicts the outcome of the experiment he sets in motion. Most importantly, she is consistently kind and considerate towards Eliza, and acts to ease her journey as a human being rather than as an ill-conceived experiment.
Mrs. Higgins used to be a taste pioneer. Someone who helps establish new cultures of taste to challenge existing ones. But when we meet her, she has transcended the ebb and tide of taste cultures. Her capacity for kindness is rooted in this transcendence, and a mark of it since, as I will argue, cruelty is central to taste. Every kind of taste is arguably a taste for blood. Which is why taste itself must be defined in terms of a capacity for a particular kind of aesthetic risk-taking.
But I’m getting ahead of myself.
The idea of taste pioneers is what motivates the definition of taste that I want to pose and develop in this essay:
Taste is making aesthetic choices someone does not want you to make. Everything else is public relations.
The definition is a snowclone of a similar definition of journalism (journalism is printing something someone does not want you to print, everything else is public relations), and centers the role of risk in the creation, maintenance, and destruction of taste cultures.
The consequences of this definition will become clear later, but first I want to flesh out the extended universe of archetypes around it.
The “someone” in the picture is, of course, the same fashionable person who polices the unfashionable at the other end of the spectrum, imposing real penalties for crimes of fashion and tastelessness.
Their relationship to the taste pioneer though, is different. Unlike the tasteless, who are incapable of making aesthetically correct decisions by the standards of a culture of taste, and therefore can only be punished and excluded from it, the taste pioneer clearly does understand what choices they are expected to make and why. In fact they typically understand better than those who aim to police them. But they choose to make different choices anyway, driven by an original logic.
Like taste outlaws, taste pioneers are typically invulnerable to the ability of the fashion police to extract penalties. Unlike taste outlaws though, they are capable of imposing penalties — by virtue of their superior tastefulness, their choices can do more than transgress prevailing taste cultures, they can subvert and undermine them, draining social and cultural capital.
This happens most visibly through the ineffectiveness of attempted punishments. Attempts to exclude and humiliate fail. Contempt does not land. The desire to belong of promising new prospects suddenly begin to waver and reorient. Cultural talent begins to defect.
The taste pioneer is necessarily a disruptive figure. And, I will argue, the only figure who can actually be said to have taste at all.
All taste is a taste for disruption; a taste for blood. The taste pioneer aims to draw blood in their interaction with incumbent arbiters of taste.
Just as we can really only attribute tastelessness to those who demonstrate a clearly lack of aptitude, we can only really attribute taste itself to taste pioneers, whose transgressions have the power to undermine taste cultures themselves. The tasteless are judged by taste cultures. But taste cultures themselves are judged by taste pioneers.
What then, of the merely fashionable, who rehearse and reinforce established cultures of taste and ritual disputation through their behaviors, perhaps making incremental advances? Who police the unfashionable and attempt to rein in the pioneering? Are they tasteful at all?
What, if anything, can we learn from them about taste?
To hint at the answer, we can learn everything and nothing from them.
I’ll use a new, more precise term for this class. Because they model aesthetic erudition (think the comic book guy on The Simpsons or Stuart on Big Bang Theory) rather than taste proper (in the sense of my risk-centering definition above), I’ll refer to them as connoisseurs.
The universe of taste now contains four archetypes: The outlaw, the tasteless, the connoisseur, and the pioneer.
We need one more to complete the picture, the philistine.
Though I’ve been casually observing (and to some degree, trolling), the taste discourse for a decade, I’ve never had a good reason to weigh in. I do now (yes it has to do with AI, but I’ll save the details for a future article). So a good question is: What archetype do I represent?
The answer of course, is domain-specific. Depending on domain, I could reasonably be classified as outlaw, tasteless, connoisseur, or pioneer. For the domains of taste that most interest me, the last three categories mostly suffice.
Most of these are domains of technical taste, of the sort that leads to uncannily good decisions in matters of engineering design, scientific investigation, or mathematical argumentation. In some of these kinds of domains, I’d self-classify as moderately tasteful and capable of occasional flashes of pioneering taste. In others, I’d self classify as tasteless but interested enough to tolerate the embarrassment and endure the punishments imposed by connoisseurs.
Many other domains I care about are domains of managerial and organizational taste. In these, I’d say I’m significantly more tasteful, and capable of assisting pioneers, though I lack the energy to do any pioneering myself. That’s why I’ve been able to make a living as a management consultant.
Fortunately for my sanity, these domains have been mostly out-of-scope in the taste culture wars, perhaps because the artistic and aesthetic aspects of these domains are neither visible, nor interesting, to outsiders. As a result, the taste culture wars largely revolve around explicitly artistic domains like literature, music, fashion, or film. Cultures of taste everybody participates in.
It was the last of these that was my entry point into early taste discourse a decade ago, long before it become the subject of culture wars. Around that time, on Twitter, I used to enjoy trolling banter with a musician named Gabe Duquette, who was developing a serious theory of taste. I did not, and still do not, understand it. I believe it involved some notion of compression, which was a popular lens on the matter back then.
Gabe was (and presumably remains) a cinephile who was offended by my loudly proclaimed and decidedly middlebrow screen media tastes. Theatrically offended of course, not really offended. We were all doing elaborate bits on Twitter back then (the actual taste culture we were enacting was of course that of Twitter itself).1
I was, in his words, guilty of neither indifference, nor tastelessness, but of “consuming pablum, knowing it was pablum.” He presumably reached that conclusion because I had demonstrated some aptitude for screen-media connoisseurship (my best known work, after all, is an analysis of a TV show), but refused his sincere offer to help identify and refine my tastes. He offered to guide me through a carefully crafted learning curve of movie watching to profile my uncultivated tastes, and improve my discernment and judgment in picking good things to watch to feed them.
He was perfectly right. When it comes to screen media, I did (and still do) consume pablum knowing it is pablum. What does that make me?
I do, in fact, possess a rudimentary, uncultivated ability to tell good and bad cinema and television apart, in the sense cinephiles would like everybody to. And I do have the aptitude to become a non-embarrassing member of cinephile circles. But unfortunately for cinephiles who might hope to civilize me, I simply do not care enough to put in the effort. That particular domain does not interest me enough. I am not indifferent in my choices, merely barbaric. And I am that way because cinephile milieus do not play a significant enough role in my life that I can be embarrassed by my uncritical preference for (say) Marvel movies over those of Martin Scorsese, or for the Christopher Nolan Batman over the Tim Burton Batman.
While I occasionally offer shallowly developed drive-by arguments on such matters (such as the argument that Kevin Feige’s orchestration of a 40+ movie universe is pioneering taste in a meta-medium that Scorsese does not appreciate), I don’t press such matters. I do not have enough of a stake in this particular culture of taste to pursue such arguments to the interesting conclusions that undoubtedly exist.
To engage in the bloodsport of taste cultures, you have to have stakes.
For me, screen media are about relaxing and unwinding with my brain switched off. If I am in a high-energy mood, I tackle difficult history books or tinker ineptly in my workshop. I’m willing to draw blood or bleed in those domains. But I don’t watch demanding movies or subject myself to black-and-white remedial education.
This is not a particularly uncommon relationship to a culture of taste, and I am sure most of you, like me, have many such connoisseur-offending relationships.
For example, I have moderately refined coffee tastes, but I am also fine drinking random instant coffee. I drink coffee primarily to manage my energy and mood with caffeine. The taste is secondary. Similarly, I can appreciate an elevated meal at a fine-dining restaurant, but I’m also fine eating whatever when I’m just hungry, which is mostly what I do. I’m not a foodie, but that doesn’t mean I’m either tasteless or indifferent when it comes to food, or itching to pioneer new culinary tastes. When it comes to sartorial taste, I’m probably borderline tasteless, but not to an embarrassing degree. I can struggle through an evening in a suit if someone really needs me to.
Perhaps most offensive in my case, I can appreciate, and on occasion produce, tasteful and even well-crafted prose, but have been gleefully producing and consuming AI generated texts, heedless of the damage it might do to my palette or the palettes of readers. If this were a serious literary rebellion, I might have been able to claim I’m on a taste-pioneering journey. I’m not. I simply don’t care enough about the craft and taste culture of reading and writing, even though I do so much of both.
This kind of posture, I’ll argue, is the most common one in any taste culture. Most of us are this way in relation to most taste cultures we participate in, much to the dismay of connoisseurs who earnestly beg the rest of us to try harder to do better.
What archetype does this type of posture represent?
In the case of screen media, I am clearly not an neutrally indifferent outlaw, since I do discriminate and hold preferences, and actually consume a lot of the medium. I am clearly not a low criminal guilty of tastelessness either— I do know better, and occasionally, but not exclusively, consume better. I am clearly not a connoisseur either — I haven’t put in the work to convert basic aptitude into cultivated discernment.
And I am certainly not a taste pioneer capable of high treason and cultural rebellion in pursuit of a more fundamental tastefulness.
In this domain, I’m a cultural alien whose choices reflect capped attention and significant competing allegiances to other taste domains, in which I visibly invest more energy and attention.
By my very presence in a culture of taste with such a posture, I point to the existence of competing cultures of taste, and the possibility of valuing them more highly. It is a dilutive, market-making relationship, which lowers the intensity of the culture’s sense of its own importance in the larger scheme of things. I help price the priceless, and create liquidity where connoisseurs hope to create and defend solidity.
A good word for this is philistine.
A philistine is someone whose offensiveness to a culture of taste is a side effect of their competing allegiances rather than a central feature of their identity. Someone whose lack of taste is wilful but incidental to their self-conception, rather than innocent, unwitting and central to their self-conception. A matter of casually offensive distorted preferences rather than either genuine indifference or committed rebellion.
The outlaw phones it in but does not intend to offend. The taste pioneer defines themselves in opposition to a prevailing taste culture via heresy and heterodoxy.
The philistine indulges in the cultural equivalent of drive-by shootings.
In the Biblical usage, the Philistines were a foreign tribe — the ones in the David vs. Goliath story (Goliath being either a metaphor for a numerically superior force or an actual giant). In modern usage, the term indicates wilfully obnoxious tastelessness. In both cases, the charge of barbarism is something of a cope (presumably the historical Philistines had cultures of taste around matters they did care about, such as seafaring and warfare).
These then, are the archetypes of the theory of taste I want to offer here. To summarize before we proceed, we have:
The outlaw — who does not care and makes indifferent but not intentionally hostile choices in aesthetic decisions the taste culture cares about
The tasteless — who cares, but makes the wrong choices, either through lack of access and education, or lack of fundamental aptitude, representing lesser and greater crimes of taste respectively
The connoisseur — who has cultivated an ability to make the right choices, either effortlessly through innate aptitude and being born to the culture, or through effortful cultivation
The taste pioneer — who has cultivated an exceptional ability to make new choices, and has both more taste than the culture can police, and the daring to take risks with it
The philistine — who makes choices that serve an alien cultural logic, and cultivates and exhibits casually offensive tastes that serve to price what the taste culture presumes to be priceless, in broader society
Each of these archetypes has an associated narrative in relation to the evolution of a taste culture. They enter and exit (or stay) at different phases. They serve different functions in the lifecycle of the taste cultures. The play different roles in determining the ultimate historical significance of a particular taste culture — whether it will come to be seen as an important chapter in a larger historical tradition, or an embarrassing and campy sidequest in the story of civilization.
It would take several more essays to work through these narratives and the life cycles of taste cultures. It is the sort of speculative armchair sociology I used to enjoy doing but no longer have the energy for. Long-time readers may notice that the setup here is similar to the setup of the Gervais Principle, a series in which I devoted 5 of 6 parts to exploring the trajectories and inter-relationships of 3 archetypes of organizational life. There is even a rough mapping here — the taste pioneers correspond to the sociopaths, the connoisseurs and tasteless together constitute the clueless, and the philistines and outlaws together correspond to the losers. This is a structural mapping though, and none of the connotations carry over. The model differs in several important ways. Most importantly, unlike economic loserdom in the Gervais theory, which stings in real ways for all, regardless of compensatory value elsewhere, what philistines and outlaws “lose” in a taste culture is only valuable within the taste culture, with no particular value or liquidity beyond.
I am not going to attempt a full Gervais-style theory here, not least because I lack suitable fodder comparable to The Office (and no, I’m not taking suggestions). David Chapman wrote something like the kind of treatment this calls for, in Geeks, Mops, and Sociopaths, though focused on the dynamics of extraction and selling-out rather than taste itself.
In this essay, I want to skip past those interesting sociological and anthropological questions to the phenomenology of taste itself.
The philistine represents a very different sort of threat to the connoisseur than the other three classes, all of which either validate, or at least do not directly threaten, the culture’s sense of its own value.
Cultures of taste tend to be totalizing. To the cinephile, cinema is an absolutely important cultural activity that is never appreciated enough. The true cinephile believes that as much as possible of societal surpluses ought to be deployed towards making more tasteful cinema and teaching more people to appreciate it.
The philistine is the human face of the political war the connoisseur must ceaselessly wage, to convince the rest of the world to value the culture of taste at its own estimation. He serves an ever-present reminder that the connoisseur’s entire identity is contingent and subject to dilution to nothingness. That other ways of life are not just possible, but might possible offer richer modes of meaning and fulfilment. That those other ways might ultimately starve the connoisseur’s world and life of the cultural energy it needs to survive.
The taste pioneer at least represents a resurrection and continuation of a taste culture in altered form. The philistine represents the possibility that the taste culture might dissipate into irrelevance and go extinct.
Why does this matter? What do you care if most of the rest of the world finds meaning and fulfilment differently from you?
It matters because we like to believe that we represent a necessary sort of human being, even if we are all individually mortal. That our cultural allegiances matter beyond ourselves. The tastes we cultivate are our bids for immortality.
Here, it is useful to construct a pyramid model of how the self evolves as it cultivates literacy and competence in a particular culture of taste, something like a Maslow’s hierarchy of aesthetic needs.
This is not meant to be a particularly clever or original diagram, so I hope it is mostly self-explanatory.
Much of taste discourse today concerns the bottom two levels, and these are the levels that connoisseurs typically inhabit, and where AIs currently threaten to compete.
The three levels above typically involve some degree of risk, and are the levels at which taste pioneering operates and the mechanics are those of a social bloodsport.
The final level, the one occupied perhaps by Mrs. Higgins, represents transcendence of the taste culture.
Let us work through the first two levels.
Discernment and attunement are obviously preconditions to any praxis of taste. You cannot form conscious opinions about things you do not even notice, and you cannot care about differences if you cannot detect the underlying distinctions. Cultivating an increasing resolution of attention is table stakes in any culture of taste. While rare, there can be arrested development at this level — obsessive-compulsive attention to taxonomizing and distinguishing, accompanied by inability to make choices or be indifferent to anything. A kind of taste paralysis.
Indifference and attention allocation, equally obviously, are central to any expression of taste. You cannot watch every movie, listen to every song, or read every book. To choose is to choose indifference to some distinctions, and care about others. In a trivial sense, any two movies are going to be different. In a more meaningfl sense, some of those differences are only going to be evident at a given level of attunement and discernment. Of those, you will care about some, but not others. To do justice to some, you must do at least ritual violence to others.
It is at this point, give or take some details, that much of taste discourse tends to stop. And certainly there is a great deal to say about these two levels. But if this is as far as you go in your taste journey, you have not yet explored taste per se. You have merely internalized a grammar of taste set up by others as a sort of artificial physics, and the rules of that game are indistinguishable from the rules of games designed by nature. Which is why this xkcd (I swear I didn’t remember it was titled “Connoisseur” before getting to this point in the writing of this essay) is so funny.
It is worth noting that though connoisseurs disagree and argue, that is the point. They do not actually make decisions their peers do not want them to make. There is no actual risk; no real costs. There is merely the pleasure of endless ritualized disagreement. This is not yet a social bloodsport.
So what does it take for a taste culture to escape the reductio ad absurdum of the Joe-Biden-sandwich-eating endgame?
It takes people who refuse to be locked up in a box, and insist on situating the taste culture in a wider world, and forcing an engagement between the two. People who do not flinch from the question of whether photographs of Joe Biden eating a sandwich actually deserve attention. Taste pioneers who can revalue what the philistines devalue, and rebuild taste cultures after their depredations.
If reality has a surprising amount of detail, and you can nerd out over anything to arbitrary depths, what distinguishes worthwhile and worthless ways of allocating attention and indifference? Asking this question is the first step towards becoming a taste pioneer.
The answer, I think, has to do with the potential for high-social-risk intersubjective self-authorship a domain offers. As the xkcd cartoon suggests, any subject can be arbitrarily deep, but once you add risk, real distinctions emerge.
Consider two examples of connoisseurship:
Two dinosaur fans, with equally attuned discernment on saurian matters, argue about the fidelity of two dinosaur representations in Jurassic Park that the rest of us can barely tell apart.
Two jazz fans, with equally attuned discernment on jazz matters, argue about the relative merits of two musicians that the rest of us can barely tell apart.
In the first case, the ground truth for the argument is derived from scientific facts — whether or not dinosaurs have feathers, whether T. Rex ran fast or slow, whether velociraptors were in fact that big (they weren’t) and whether they hunted in packs.
In the second case, the ground truth for the argument is derived from the tradition of taste itself, but to the extent you don’t challenge received authority, it might as well be a matter of objective facts. Instead of poring over fossilized remains, you pore over seminal texts. Instead of systematic empiricism, you practice systematic hermeneutics. Instead of submitting to the authority of experiments and data, you submit to the authority of authority figures.
While there is some room for taste, stylization of facts, and appeals to authority when it comes to beliefs about dinosaurs, dinosaur fandom offers less room for self-authorship than music. This is simply because you can, in fact, become an authoritative source of musical tastes. But you cannot become a new set of dinosaur facts. Taste pioneering is possible in music in a way it isn’t in dinosaur fandom. Fewer constraining facts equals more room for humans.
So when it comes to music, you can go further, because the truths about music are truths about the human psyche and how it can be transformed through the creation and consumption of music. One sign that this is so is that a great deal more social risk accompanies musical tastes than dinosaur tastes.
The journey beyond connoisseurship, and into taste pioneering, begins when you realize that some cultures of taste are neither objective, nor subjective, but intersubjective. And because they are intersubjective, your self-authorship can influence others the way empirical facts can in more objective domains. And that exercising this influence will involve taking on risk.
Few venture into taste pioneering, however, which is why it yields a good definition of taste. Making choices that connoisseurs do not want you to make takes courage.
Much of what passes for taste discourse is really restricted to what we might call aesthetic erudition, which rehearses and models the patterns of judgment of a mature taste culture through scholarship and maintenance of boundaries between esoteric and exoteric. This is the substance of connoisseurship. While I do not in general like Straussian-Girardian frames, they are peculiarly well adapted to thinking about how connoisseurs curate tastes.
In fact, taste cultures are likely the only class of phenomenology to which Straussian-Girardian frames can be usefully applied. Connoisseurs are, in a Straussian reading, scholars of intersubjectivity induced by pioneering greatness. Stewards of mimesis and esoteric-exoteric boundaries, and keepers of hermeneutic rather than empirical truths (and yes, wine, as much as poetry, can be understood as comprising texts produced by authority figures for suitably cultivated tastes, rather than empirical realities). Connoisseurs are at once the scientists and inertial masses responding to forces set in motion by taste pioneers.
This is one reason taste cultures, unlike reality, famously have a conservative bias. If a taste culture goes long enough without disruption by a sufficiently disruptive taste pioneer, it will ossify into a tradition. Connoisseurs will evolve into a priesthood, punishments for tastelessness will increase in severity, slowly choking off the supply of fresh creative minds, and the culture will begin to decay, holding on to fading memories of liveness.
Aesthetics, as I once noted, is the entry drug of conservatism. And it isn’t just the tedious tradarch posters I’m talking about here.
Let me venture a strong statement: The connoisseur, ultimately, has no autonomous creative agency, and therefore cannot express taste as such. They can only acquire a particular learnable discernment, and get to a kind of mimetic subjectivity first established as possible by a taste pioneer.
What they visibly practice is a craft that is impressive only insofar as it reliably rehearses and reproduces patterns of judgment we already know, by some other means, to be correct within a given taste culture. It is not an art, either in consumption or production.
This is why there is usually a culture of competitive discernment to first qualify connoisseurs on the basis of objectively determinable competence, (can you identify this wine? this raga?), and then on mutual agreement (does your ranking of these wines meaningfully correlate to those of Wine Spectator? Can you distinguish more and less celebrated exponents of a raga?)
What is notable about such tests of connoisseurship is that they are not tests of individual tastes, but of ability to auditably internalize the default tastes of an entire inherited culture of taste.
The taste pioneer, however, can and does go beyond. A good example of this was Andy Kauffman, who famously did a series of deliberately bad stand-up impressions in his act, topped off with a pitch-perfect impression of Elvis Presley. The act left the audience first annoyed and contemptuous, then speechless. The message was clear — I understand and can express your tastes better than you can, but I have better tastes, fuck you.
Kauffman explored realms of taste that were clearly beyond the culture of taste he was part of, and helped move that culture to those new realms. That’s taste pioneering.
Levels 3-5 of my pyramid chart this sort of journey into taste pioneering.
Transgression and social risk: You must make decisions connoisseurs cannot help but disagree with, because they do not own their own tastes. They merely represent the tastes of a taste culture.
Aesthetic self-authorship: Connoisseurs are, to varying degrees, automatons whose behaviors are only legitimate to the extent they are predetermined by the taste culture. Taste pioneers discover and model new modes of discernment and attunement, responding to phenomenology beyond the walls of the culture. The cultivation and expression of taste becomes a mode of self-authorship rather than a mode of belonging. They are the living proofs of their tastefulness.
Rightness surplus: Taste pioneers, like good leaders of any sort (per Amazon’s famous leadership principles) are right a lot. But what they are right about is a subtle thing. While there can be particular crude signs like commercial or popular success, these can easily be (or interpreted to be) signs of degeneracy. But what they are really right about is where generativity and liveness are to be found. They declare: we must take fashion/art/cinema/music in this direction rather than that one, for that way lies exhaustion and death, while this way lies new life.
At this point, we have something like a theory of creative destruction of taste cultures.
We can think in terms of the Wardley-Cringley pioneer-settler-town-planner model, and draw Wardley maps to capture the evolutionary dynamics of a particular taste culture.
We can talk about how alive or dead it is, what innovations are being introduced by taste pioneers, how notions of sacred and profane are changing, and what elements of taste are becoming irrelevant and commoditized through automation.
I’ll leave all that as suggested exploration directions.
Mrs. Higgins in Pygmalion transcends taste culture. She occupies the top of the pyramid, too old to take the trouble to dress out of fashion. She predicts and interprets her son, Henry Higgins’ misadventure for him, and helps protect Eliza from the fallout.
To transcend a taste culture is to no longer rely on it for self-authorship. To no longer be defined by conformity or transgression. To no longer be defined by the cruelties of exclusion, contempt, humiliation, heresy, and heterodoxy. To no longer be defined by a taste for social blood.
To transcend a taste culture is to evolve with it without being defined by it. To inhabit a self that can serve as a measure of the world rather than being measured by it, and give itself permission to be kind, regardless of whether or not that is a tasteful choice.
The instinct to beauty — which is another possible definition of taste — is always also an instinct to cruelty. Cruelty to others, yes, but also cruelty to oneself, in the form of limiting self-conceptions.
Kindness is, perhaps, the ultimate act of tastelessness. It is a taste for life itself, rather than for blood. Which is why it is the mark of transcendence of taste itself, and paradoxically, the ultimate sort of tastefulness too.
I got to thinking about taste, as many have in recent years, by way of thinking about how to teach AIs to have taste. Much of what we can do today is teach AIs connoisseurship. To the extent my theory of connoisseurship as a kind of learned automaticity is correct, it should be entirely trainable. A mimetic subjectivity is reducible to objectively observable behavior. We can likely create zombie connoisseurs as good as any human ones, so long as we can replicate sensory discernment. There is nothing uniquely human about discernment and attunement. The connoisseur is ultimately a Large Taste Model equipped with special sensors. The self they have cultivated can be distilled into model weights.
But to actually teach AIs taste, we must first introduce them to aesthetic risk, both social and material. To the costs of choices someone does not want them to make.
What kinds of risk? And what sorts of costs? And imposed by whom?
I’ll explore these in a future post.
Gabe eventually decided Twitter was “actually bad” (iirc he pioneered the briefly popular usage of “actually good” and “actually bad” that shaped early taste discourse) and disappeared. I don’t know what he’s up to now. But he did help me refine my theory of taste.
The author is Bob Harris, and the subtitle is The Life and Times of Lord Daer 1763-1794. Who is Lord Daer? Don’t worry about that! So many books on the Scottish Enlightenment cover one particular thing, but somehow fail to give the reader a proper sense of life on the ground. I found this is the best book I know for actually communicating what it was like to live during, and participate in, the Scottish Enlightenment. Maybe to achieve that end it is necessary to focus on the life of a figure who was less than totally famous? Definitely recommended, this book should be better known.
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That is the title of a recent book by Beatrice Magistro. Some key results are:
Economic knowledge consistently predicts higher support for welfare-enhancing policies (Eurozone membership, free trade, and EU immigration), independent on whether individuals stand to gain or lose initially from globalization. This challenges conventional self-interest accounts and instead highlights the role of economic knowledge — and potentially time preferences — in shaping globalization attitudes.
Economic knowledge also predicts a lower discount rate, even after adjusting for years of education.
I would say that over the years I have altered my perspective a bit on these issues. I used to think these factors were correlated, in large part, through a kind of wisdom. I now think that more of the effect, however much I may sympathize with it, runs through sociological expectation and perceived obligation, combined with conformity and signaling pressures.
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We are Rebecca, Max, and Aakrith. We are researchers at The Mercatus Center, a research organization dedicated to classical liberal ideas. Rebecca is a philosopher, Max is an economist, and Aakrith is a political scientist. Together, we are the Space Team, and this is our Substack.
We’re here to persuade you that space policy is increasingly important. And that getting space policy right offers humankind astonishing opportunities. In particular, we’re currently thinking hard about innovation, competition, federalism, property rights, and life in space.
Here is the link.
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My thanks, once again, to WorkOS for sponsoring DF last week. Users expect apps and agents to reach the tools they already work in. Every integration that gets you there is a different OAuth flow, a different token lifecycle, and weeks of infrastructure before you write a line of product code.
WorkOS Pipes handles it with one API call. Pre-built connectors for GitHub, Slack, Salesforce, Google Drive, and more. Pipes handles OAuth, token refresh, and credential storage. You call the real provider API with a fresh token, every time.