Noguchi’s New York animations

Illustration of three children playing on red playground equipment against a yellow background.

Hand-painted animations bring to life Isamu Noguchi’s ideas for playgrounds that could integrate art with everyday life

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

What's new in Claude Sonnet 5

What's new in Claude Sonnet 5

Claude Sonnet 5 came out this morning. I always head straight for the "what's new" developer docs because they tend to have more actionable information than the official announcement post.

Anthropic say of Sonnet 5 that "its performance is close to that of Opus 4.8, but at lower prices". The system card helps explain how they were able to release the model without being blocked by the US government:

Sonnet 5 is significantly less capable at cyber tasks than Mythos 5: its safeguards are thus similar to those we apply to Opus 4.7 and Opus 4.8 (models that are more capable than Sonnet 5 but much less capable than Mythos 5).

Of note from the "what's new" API changes:

  • Sampling parameters temperature, top_p, top_k are no longer supported.
  • It has a 1 million token context window and 128,000 maximum output tokens.
  • It features "the same set of tools and platform features as Claude Sonnet 4.6"
  • Adaptive thinking is on by default, unless you specify "thinking": {type: "disabled"}.
  • The pricing is the same as Sonnet 4.6: $3/million input, $15/million input, with an introductory discount to $2/$10 until 31st August. But...
  • The model has a new tokenizer, where "The same input text produces approximately 30% more tokens than on Claude Sonnet 4.6." - effectively a 30% price increase.

I used my Claude Token Counter tool to try out the new tokenizer. Here are my results for several larger documents:

Document Sonnet 4.6 Opus 4.7 Sonnet 5
Universal Declaration of Human Rights (English) 2,356 3,347
1.42x
3,341
1.42x
Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Spanish) 3,572 4,753
1.33x
4,747
1.33x
Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Chinese, Mandarin Simplified) 3,334 3,366
1.01x
3,360
1.01x
sqlite_utils/db.py (4,279 lines of Python) 44,014 56,118
1.28x
56,113
1.27x

So the new token is roughly 1.4x times more expensive for English, 1.33x for Spanish, 1.28x for Python code and effectively the same cost for Simplified Mandarin.

Here's the pelican. It's nothing to write home about. Sonnet 5 thinks it looks like a goose.

Illustration of a white goose riding a bicycle, with one wing extended forward to grip the handlebar, set against a plain white background with a brown ground line.

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, claude, llm-pricing, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llm-release

The AI Compass

The AI Compass

This political compass style quiz by bambamramfan is pretty neat - answer 29 questions about AI and AI ethics to see which of the 30 archetypes you best fit.

I'm impressed that my answers on my first time through the quiz categorized me as "The Garage Tinkerer", patron saint myself!

Screenshot of a quiz result screen on a dark background. The top half shows a square scatter-plot quadrant chart with axes labeled GOOD (top), BAD (bottom), OVERHYPED (left of center) and TRANSFORMATIVE (right of center), filled with colored regions and scattered dots; a glowing white-ringed teal dot marks the user's position in the upper-right (good/transformative) area. Below, a card reads: "YOU ARE..." / "The Garage Tinkerer" / "patron saint: Simon Willison" / "You're running local models, building little tools, and having a genuinely great time. You don't care about the discourse — you care about making the thing do cool stuff. The technology is interesting and everyone arguing about it would be happier if they just opened a terminal."

It's implemented as a single page React app using the <script type="text/babel"> trick to avoid the necessary build step. Here's the code.

Via @erisianrite.com

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, ai-ethics

Have your agent record video demos of its work with shot-scraper video

shot-scraper video is a new command introduced in today's shot-scraper 1.10 release which accepts a storyboard.yml file defining a routine to run against a web application and uses Playwright to record a video of that routine. I've written before about the importance of having coding agents produce demos of their work; this is my latest attempt at enabling them to do that.

Here's an example video created using shot-scraper video, exercising a still in development feature adding the ability to create new tables in Datasette from pasted CSV, TSV or JSON data:

That video was created by running this command:

shot-scraper video datasette-bulk-insert-storyboard.yml \
  --auth datasette-demo-auth.json --mp4

(That --auth JSON file contains a cookie, as described here in the documentation.)

Here's the datasette-bulk-insert-storyboard.yml file:

output: /tmp/datasette-bulk-insert-demo.webm
server:
  - uv
  - --directory
  - /Users/simon/Dropbox/dev/datasette
  - run
  - datasette
  - -p
  - 6419
  - --root
  - --secret
  - "1"
  - /tmp/demo.db
url: http://127.0.0.1:6419/demo/tasks
viewport:
  width: 1280
  height: 720
cursor: true
wait_for: 'button[data-table-action="insert-row"]'
javascript: |
  (() => {
    let clipboardText = "";
    Object.defineProperty(navigator, "clipboard", {
      configurable: true,
      get: () => ({
        writeText: async (text) => {
          clipboardText = String(text);
        },
        readText: async () => clipboardText,
      }),
    });
  })();
scenes:
  - name: Bulk insert existing table rows
    do:
      - pause: 0.8
      - click: 'button[data-table-action="insert-row"]'
      - wait_for: "#row-edit-dialog[open]"
      - pause: 0.5
      - click: ".row-edit-bulk-insert"
      - wait_for: ".row-edit-bulk-textarea"
      - pause: 0.5
      - click: ".row-edit-copy-template"
      - wait_for: "text=Copied"
      - pause: 0.8
      - fill:
          into: ".row-edit-bulk-textarea"
          text: |
            title,owner,status,priority,notes
            Prepare release video,Ana,doing,1,Recorded with shot-scraper
            Check pasted CSV import,Ben,review,3,Previewed before inserting
            Share the branch demo,Chen,queued,2,Bulk insert creates three rows
      - pause: 0.8
      - click: ".row-edit-save"
      - wait_for: "text=Previewing 3 rows."
      - pause: 1.2
      - click: ".row-edit-save"
      - wait_for: "text=3 rows inserted."
      - pause: 1.0
      - click: ".row-edit-cancel"
      - wait_for: "text=Prepare release video"
      - pause: 1.0
  - name: Create a table from pasted CSV
    open: http://127.0.0.1:6419/demo
    wait_for: 'details.actions-menu-links summary'
    do:
      - pause: 0.8
      - click: 'details.actions-menu-links summary'
      - click: 'button[data-database-action="create-table"]'
      - wait_for: "#table-create-dialog[open]"
      - pause: 0.5
      - fill:
          into: ".table-create-table-name"
          text: "launch_metrics"
      - click: ".table-create-from-data"
      - wait_for: ".table-create-data-textarea"
      - pause: 0.5
      - fill:
          into: ".table-create-data-textarea"
          text: |
            metric_id,name,score,recorded_on
            m001,Activation rate,87.5,2026-06-29
            m002,Retention check,72.25,2026-06-30
            m003,CSV import health,95,2026-07-01
      - pause: 0.8
      - click: ".table-create-save"
      - wait_for: "text=Previewing 3 rows."
      - pause: 1.2
      - click: ".table-create-save"
      - wait_for_url: "**/demo/launch_metrics"
      - wait_for: "text=Activation rate"
      - pause: 1.2

The video command documentation includes simpler examples, but for the purpose of this post I thought I'd go with something more comprehensive.

That demo YAML storyboard was constructed entirely by GPT-5.5 xhigh running in Codex Desktop, using the following prompt run inside my ~/dev/datasette checkout of this branch:

Review the changes on this branch.

cd to ~/dev/shot-scraper and run the command "uv run shot-scraper video --help"

Now use that new video command to record a video demo of the new features from this branch, including running a "uv run datasette -p 6419 --root --secret 1 /tmp/demo.db" development server so you can record the video against a demo DB that you first create.

Now that I've released the feature the prompt could say "run uvx shot-scraper video --help" instead and it should achieve the same result.

I really like this pattern where the --help output for a command provides enough detail that a coding agent can use it - it works kind of like bundling a SKILL.md file directly inside the tool. I used the same pattern for showboat and rodney.

How I built this

shot-scraper video started as an experimental prototype. shot-scraper is built on top of Playwright, and the key feature it needed was for Playwright to be able to record video of browser sessions with enough control to create the desired demo.

I first tried this a few years ago and found that the Playwright-produced videos included additional chrome that was useful for debugging a test failure but unwanted for a product demo.

They fixed that a while ago, but there were still some minor blockers. In particular I was getting a few white frames at the start of the videos, since the recording mechanism kicked in before the first URL was loaded by the browser.

Playwright 1.59 added a new screencast mechanism providing much more finely grained control over video recording. This was very nearly what I needed, but the resulting videos were fixed at 800px wide.

I found a landed PR fixing that but it wasn't yet in a release. Then yesterday they shipped it in playwright-python 1.61.0 and I was finally unblocked to finish implementing the feature!

The code itself was all written by GPT-5.5 xhigh in Codex Desktop. I had it write the documentation as well which gave me a very useful frame for reviewing the design - much of the iteration on the feature came from reviewing that documentation, spotting things that were redundant, inconsistent or confusing, and requesting (or dictating) a better design.

The YAML format itself was mostly defined by the coding agent. I had it use Pydantic to both define and validate the format, partly to make the design easier to review.

This is a great example of the kind of feature that I almost certainly wouldn't have taken on without coding agent support. I filed the original issue in February 2024, and had difficulty finding the necessary time to solve this in amongst all of my other projects.

Tags: projects, python, yaml, ai, datasette, playwright, shot-scraper, generative-ai, llms, pydantic, coding-agents, agentic-engineering

shot-scraper 1.10

Release: shot-scraper 1.10

The big new feature is shot-scraper video storyboard.yml, described in detail in Have your agent record video demos of its work with shot-scraper video.

Tags: shot-scraper

Here Is Your Space Station Of The Future

The International Space Station is Old AF.

It has been orbiting the Earth for 27 years and has been bombarded by a constant stream of space debris. The ISS leaks and requires much repair. As NASA alum…

Read more

Lisa Graves on the Supreme Court

For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube.

Lisa Graves is the author of Without Precedent, a history and analysis of the Roberts Court and the expert on how the Federalist Society has been working to undermine democracy. Yesterday this happened:

So I managed to arrange a conversation with Lisa about what is happening:

. . .

TRANSCRIPT:
Paul Krugman in Conversation with Lisa Graves

(recorded 6/29/26)

Paul Krugman: Hi everyone. This is a bit of an emergency recording and podcast because today, which is Monday as we’re recording this, the Supreme Court has just handed down several decisions, of which one was really alarming. And I had talked earlier with Lisa Graves, head of True North Research, and Court Accountability who had been warning about all this stuff when I talked with her previously and on other occasions. And I wanted to get somebody who’s actually following this to weigh in. So, hi Lisa.

Lisa Graves: Paul, thank you so much for inviting me back on. I really appreciate it.

Krugman: Yeah. So, there were obviously several decisions that came down, but Humphrey’s Executor… This is absolutely mind-boggling. So why don’t you talk about Humphrey’s Executor and then we’ll talk about the background and what this says about the Roberts Court?

Graves: Yes. Today’s Slaughter case involving the FTC, is a case where the Roberts Court has overruled nearly a century of legal precedent which prohibited presidents from firing commissioners, specifically on the Federal Trade Commission, the case that you mentioned, Paul. Humphrey’s Executor was specifically about the FTC. It was about this provision that barred FDR, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, from firing someone whom Hoover appointed to that commission. When Congress created the FTC, it set a standard that required that you would have to have cause to fire someone outside of their term.

The way the FTC is set up is that it has five commissioners by statute. Three of those commissioners are appointed by the president, two from the president’s party, and two are not from the president’s party. What’s happened over the past year is since Donald Trump became president again, he fired the Democratic commissioners on that commission. And so for the last 15 months, that commission has had only two commissioners, two Republican appointees, which has meant there hasn’t been a Democrat even in the room to consider these cases that are brought to the FTC, which relate to the power of huge corporations to merge with one another or not. And so, in essence, the FTC investigates proposed mergers and other things that might be considered a restraint on trade or affect the ability of consumers to get a fair price on things, for example. And what Trump has done is that he’s basically dominated that board in defiance of the plain language of the statute.

So any legal action by Donald Trump that has been countenanced by this Supreme Court, which allowed that firing to stand, in essence, did not allow the lower courts to reinstall Rebecca Slaughter to that post while the case was pending, and then just today ruled that, in fact, under their new approach to the Constitution, Donald Trump has the power to fire anyone at any independent agency—other than the Fed, it seems—no matter what Congress has said. And this is the result of an invention of a theory from the Reagan revolutionaries back in the day to try to aggrandize presidential power through what they describe as “the unitary executive theory.”

So the bottom line is that this ruling by the Roberts Court will allow more of the corruption that we’ve seen going on by this administration in terms of people who may be donors to Trump seemingly getting out of investigations or having their mergers go through, and we will not have a commission at the FTC that has any independence—just loyalists for Donald Trump for the foreseeable future.

Krugman: And it applies obviously not just to the FTC but to any agency except not the Federal Reserve. But the FDA—if there’s an FDA official who is viewed as being too hostile to RFK Jr’s vaccine doctrine or something, then Trump can fire him. And the Supreme Court has said, “Well, yes, the president has that power. Congress cannot set any ground rules that can’t be overruled by presidential edict.” Is that a correct interpretation?

Graves: Well, that’s the broad strokes of it, but just to add a little bit of gloss to that, which is that Roberts has been pursuing this agenda for years now. And he accomplished part of it through a case called the Seila Law LLC case, where he allowed Trump to remove the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. And the CFPB also had restrictions on whether that person could be fired without cause, and Roberts already moved the ball forward on that. And that has had a cascading effect along with the terrible, unprecedented immunity decision, where the Roberts Court gave Donald Trump immunity from criminal prosecution for any of his so-called official acts, which included directing agencies like the Justice Department to do his bidding.

And so, up until now, what was left was this notion that if Congress created a board that specifically had limits on how a person could be removed from that board because of its regulatory function to implement congressional will to act in a legislative way, boards like the Federal Trade Commission or the National Labor Relations Board could not be swept of their members. But before this decision, through the machinations of John Roberts, in essence, Donald J. Trump was already exerting a power to fire anyone within the executive branch, whether they were on an independent board or not.

Krugman: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau felt like it was a little bit different. It was basically Elizabeth Warren’s creation. It was a relatively new agency. But this now generalizes it to everything, and it goes back to the FTC, which is a very, very old institution and is where this whole Humphrey’s Executor comes from. So now that’s everything.

Graves: Yes, except for the Fed. That is correct. And I think, as you were describing it at the outset, Paul, this has enormous implications for the American people and American consumers, because, in essence, consolidating power in this way in a president is not required by the Constitution. Although Roberts is somehow claiming it is, it’s not. This is part of this invention of this so-called “structural Constitution” under this very rigid notion of separation of powers, which basically guts some of the core powers of Congress and vests those powers, in the views of this court, in the hands of the president and the president alone.

And this ignores the reality of what’s happening, which is that you have a president who’s not actually executing the laws passed by Congress; who’s thwarting those laws. When you look at Article One and Article Two of the Constitution, what you see is that the president’s primary job is “to faithfully execute the laws of the United States.” And what’s happening here is that the president is circumventing those laws, thwarting those laws, and doing so in ways that raise serious questions of corruption or potential corruption or undue influence.

And the area of trade and mergers is one of the most, you know, potentially profitable areas for people trying to curry favor with Donald Trump. And what we’ve seen over the past fifteen months is that the FTC under the control of two Trump loyalists has dismissed more than thirty-three investigations into mergers that were begun before Donald Trump took over.

Krugman: This is basically a Federalist Society thing, and when they began pushing this, they probably had in mind that we would be pursuing an ideological agenda, that this would be something that would allow a right wing president to essentially just overrule Congress when it was doing things that weren’t sufficiently right-wing, or weren’t sufficiently “Reaganesque,” since this goes way back to the 1980s. But now it’s very much personalist. We’re talking about this as what one guy gets to do, which might not even be ideological. As you say, it might just be corruption.

Graves: Yeah. I think it’s both, right? So there is this throughline from the Federalist Society that helped get these judges on the court. These six members were all either active members or noted to be members of the Federalist Society. They were part of the pipeline to power that the Federalist Society was created to accomplish. Roberts and Alito and the three Trump appointees, they were all appointed in the aftermath of the “No More Souter” campaign by Federalist Society activists who said they didn’t want judges who were going to follow the precedent. They wanted people who were going to basically be ringers and change the law to reverse the progress of the 20th century.

And this attack on what they call the administrative state is really an attack on expertise. It’s an attack on the ability of agencies to do the job Congress has entrusted them to do, which is to faithfully implement those laws in defense and in pursuit of the public interests of the American people. So you now have this convergence between a president who is so determined to take cash, in many ways, out of other people’s pockets, including the pockets of the taxpayers, in order to advance himself, to aggrandize himself. And this has come to a head at a time when the court has the majority. So this captured court has the majority it needs to accomplish its long-term ideological agenda.

And what a lot of people don’t realize is that when you look at the Supreme Court, this nine-member court, and the six members in the Republican-appointed majority, five of those six members were executive branch attorneys. They were people who cut their teeth for years in advancing presidential power, in trying to expand presidential power. And they’ve acted, I think, with a real arrogance toward congressional power, hostility toward congressional power, and with a bias toward their own long-standing agenda as lawyers, as Republican lawyers in this cause. And they’re moving forward even at a time when we have a president at the helm who is abusing his power almost on a daily basis in terms of asserting extraordinary king-like powers to do almost anything he wants.

Krugman: I would actually disagree with that. I don’t think it’s almost on a daily basis. I think it’s at least several times a day.

Graves: It’s an hourly basis, right? Yes. I’ll take that correction.

Krugman: But yeah. You say that these cases were not brought to try and stop corporations from doing stuff, but the ability to exercise the function of the FTC as a guardian of the public interest. But it’s also a negative power. You can imagine that a merger that the FTC would normally have blocked is allowed, but also one that it would normally have approved could be blocked if, you know, the corporation in question has not cut Jared Kushner in on the deal, basically.

Graves: Well, right. You know, I looked into those instances where you can see the list of the various mergers that the FTC has stepped away from investigating. And one of the things I saw was that before Trump’s appointees took office, there was a Joe Biden appointee—her name is Lina Khan. She’d been a vocal critic of Google and Amazon’s market powers. And what happened in one of these cases was that the FTC terminated the examination of one of Google’s acquisitions.

You had Google’s CEO at the inauguration last year, you had Google Alphabet giving like a million dollars to the inauguration committee. You have a tie-in on underwriting the Trump ballroom, and then you have an FTC that is not pursuing a further examination of that acquisition. Maybe it would have been approved with the full commission, maybe it wouldn’t have—we don’t know. But what we do know is that there are other ongoing investigations, perhaps around Facebook, for example. Maybe in their view or in someone’s view, Facebook hasn’t ponied up enough cash to get that dismissed. It creates this real environment of coercion and shakedowns, the perception that if you’re not playing ball with Trump, you’re going to be treated unfavorably. And in fact, he’s routinely threatened companies that he thinks aren’t sufficiently loyal to him.

Krugman: Yeah, I mean, it’s so raw and out in the open now. And by the way, Lina Khan is impressive as hell. I had a dialogue with her at the Graduate Center a few months ago, and she’s now advising Mamdani in New York. It’s just worth saying that a lot of the players in this have been around for a while and keep on showing up in different venues.

But the power to do favors is also the power to withhold favors. So this is, as you say, an enormous source of potential corruption. You also have to wonder, if you’re a business, do you even know what the ground rules are? That’s what I’m wondering about a lot now.

Graves: Well, you know, I think that that is a really good question. And it reminds me of this historical episode from that robber baron era when Teddy Roosevelt was president and the big companies—Standard Oil, for example, the mega-millionaires who would be billionaires today—were exerting such power over Congress that the smaller companies, the median-sized and smaller companies, were being shut out of the ability to really influence legislation. And that resulted in the Tillman Act, which is still on the books, that bars direct corporate contributions to a candidate. They get around that through PAC donations that are allowed, or through giving now to these C4 nonprofit groups.

But you know, since about 110 or 115 years ago, it has been banned for there to be direct corporate contributions because, at that time, other businesses who weren’t the super-bigs were feeling like they were getting the raw end of the deal. And so I think that’s probably repeating now, where there are smaller companies that can’t afford to make million-dollar donations to the inaugural committee or make tens of millions of dollars of secret donations to this ballroom boondoggle, who are going to be disadvantaged because they can’t potentially buy their way in to favorable treatment.

Krugman: Yeah. I mean, even big corporations who happen, for whatever reason, to be not sort of buddies. You know, it definitely looks like this administration has it in for Anthropic. I’m sure that they’re not angels, but this is still pretty amazing that this is one of the best AI out there, but they are not friends with the president and so they’re…

Graves: Right. And look what happened at TikTok. For quite a while there we were hearing all of these attacks on TikTok, concerns about security or security access through that app. And with the visit of one billionaire, Jeff Yass of Pennsylvania, who’s one of the fifteen richest billionaires in the world—who made part of his fortune on super-rapid trading, but another part of his fortune on an early investment in ByteDance, the owner of TikTok—with one visit to Mar-a-Lago by Jeff Yass, suddenly Donald Trump was singing a different tune about TikTok, and then ultimately intervened in a way that ended up giving some of his allies ownership in TikTok.

And so you have this real... I would say the most generous thing I could say would be it’s unseemly. I mean, it’s outrageous, actually, to have a president engaging in sort of corporate manipulation in this way to reward his friends and punish his enemies, as we’ve seen with Trump going after law firms, Trump going after universities, Trump assailing different corporations whom he dislikes or whom he considers not to have donated to him or advanced him. This is extraordinary in American history. I think it’s unprecedented, actually. Even with the corruption that was unfolding during that robber baron era, I think we’ve never seen anything like this kind of grift and graft.

And this corruption is inherently destabilizing to American society, to American business, to investments in the United States. If the U.S. becomes, as it is becoming, a society in which basically you have to engage in these sorts of legalized bribes—although I’m not sure how legal some of them may ultimately be—that changes the U.S. as a stable economic superpower.

Regardless of what a particular policy preference may or may not be at a given time, this is an extraordinary devolution of Americans’ role in both the U.S. economy and our role in the world—to have a situation where companies and countries have to pay up to a president or cut a deal with the president’s son-in-law or Howard Lutnick on minerals or what have you, or where someone can make a call to the Pentagon to get a special contract approved for Donald Trump’s sons. As you said, this is not just corruption on a daily basis. Whether it’s legally actionable—some of them may be, some of them may not be—but on a moral level, it’s corrupt on an hourly basis.

Krugman: Yeah, on average every hour now. So, you mentioned devaluing expertise. The role of experts in a lot of this stuff—I think part of the issue is whether there are sort of procedures for consulting experts on things that will now be by the chopping block. Is that right?

Graves: Yeah, I mean, that is part of a broader trend. It transcends the Slaughter case. But what we’ve seen is a real war on expertise. Certainly part of that was through the DOGE efforts of Musk, but those efforts, those firings of so many people, so many experts across the board in all these agencies, that has really decimated, not just the baseline of our skilled workforce in the federal government, but also demoralized the people who remain. And that’s across the board. That’s in areas of vaccines, it’s in public health, it’s in climate science, it’s in earth science, it’s in trade. It’s in all areas where we’ve probably cumulatively lost I don’t know how many thousands of years of expertise that the people actually invested in through paying these civil servants who were hired on a non-political basis, who were hired for their expertise to serve the American public. Whether it’s through the National Institutes of Health, or the FDA, or the U.S. Department of Agriculture, we’ve lost an enormous amount of expertise.

And we’ve also seen the ways in which this Roberts Court has not intervened to protect against those firings. You’ve had people who should never have been fired, and months and months later, some of them are reinstated. Meanwhile, they may have moved on to other jobs, they may not want to come back into the government. This loss of expertise is a disadvantage for we, the people of the United States, in terms of having people who are looking out for our interests based on years of work, as well as scientists who’ve been reliant at the universities on these grants and more.

This also is a real disadvantage for our national security, because it’s not just in U.S. civil society that we’ve seen these firings. We’ve seen people fired from the Pentagon who were, leading lights, people who had records of impeccable service to our country. We’ve seen that happening in the national security arena, in the intelligence community, where people who have deep expertise have been fired. We’ve seen that at the Justice Department where people who had expertise in anti-corruption, in enforcing DOJ’s rules to make sure that prosecutions weren’t politicized. We’ve seen the FBI firing people for just the act of doing their job to protect and investigate those who committed violent acts against our Capital Police officers. So this war on expertise, this war on civil servants, is deep and wide, and it is going to take a lot to repair.

Krugman: Yeah, my experience in dealing with higher-level civil servants has always been that we had far better people in those positions, in a sense, than we deserved. You had all of these people at Treasury or at agencies that I would deal with, who could have made two or three times as much money in the private sector, but they did what they did because they thought they were doing something meaningful. They felt that it was a better use of their lives. And now, even if you haven’t fired them, if you’re disrespecting them, we’re going to lose that.

Graves: Yeah, I mean, I have a bias on this because I was a career hire for the Justice Department and ultimately became Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the Office of Policy Development, the Office of Legal Policy. And I was there with other attorneys who could have been making three, four, five, six times as much in the private sector, but we were honored to be able to serve the American people.

And I felt, every time I walked into the Justice Department back then—this was in the Clinton administration with Ms. Reno as the attorney general—there was this engraving that said, “The place of justice is a hallowed place.” And I thought about it as a place where people set aside their partisan political views or their personal religion to do the work of the American people. And almost in every instance where I had the chance to work with someone across that agency and other agencies, I was so impressed with the devotion and intellect and wisdom of the people who had chosen public service as their career.

Krugman: Yeah. I mean, this was the Clinton administration, but you know, I had my year in government in the Reagan administration at sub-political level. But you know, the kind of deputy assistant secretary and office director level were astonishingly good people. Once in a while, you would get to see one of them lay down the law to the political appointee above them and say, “No, that’s not how it works.”

So, this is a long-term project, as you said—the unitary executive, the stripping away. Presumably, when John Roberts and his friends began this, they didn’t imagine that “the unitary executive” to whom they would give all this power would be—to use the technical term—a fuck-up like Donald Trump. I mean, I’m a little surprised that didn’t at least give them some pause here.

Graves: Yeah, it’s interesting. You’d think that they could slow things down for a moment given how reckless and destructive Donald Trump is, but they haven’t, right? This is not necessarily something they’re compelled to do. So, for example, Humphrey’s Executor has been on the books since the 1930s. They could easily have just said, “We affirm the lower court in Slaughter’s case and we affirm Humphrey’s Executor as still good law,” and just been done with the case. She would have been back on the commission months and months ago, maybe last summer. For Lisa Cook, you know, they sort of held that for a moment, held out this notion that they were going to allow her to remain, that they weren’t going to intervene on the Fed, but everything else was fair game.

This court is taking cases where it could easily just either affirm the ruling below or reverse it based on a citation of long-standing legal precedents, but it’s not. And what most people don’t know is that this Roberts Court is only hearing 60 to 70 cases a year. A couple of years back, the Supreme Court was hearing up to a hundred or more cases. In the 1980s, there were changes to the court’s jurisdiction to basically leave most of its jurisdiction discretionary. The court only has to take cases basically where there’s like a fight between Arizona and Colorado over the Colorado River—when there’s a fight between two states. Otherwise, every case they take is discretionary. They are choosing this docket.

They’re choosing, in Donald Trump’s term, to take up cases on the shadow docket where they ruled for him almost all the time—more than 90% of the time—and on the main docket, the docket that we’re seeing the decisions coming from now. Those are all cases where the Roberts Court has decided to have an oral argument and issue a decision, even where the long-standing precedent is against Trump’s actions.

And so I wish that they had some heartburn over it. They don’t seem to, though, because they could easily, in the Slaughter case, have said, “No, she has to go back on that commission under the long-standing precedent of Humphrey’s Executor.” And they chose not to do so. And they chose not to do so even as the Musk operation, the DOGE operation and more were decimating our agencies; as they were decimating—not the FTC in that particular sense because it was hitting all the agencies,—but they did so knowing who Trump is and knowing what he’s doing.

Krugman: And now they have to know him even more, right? In some sense, we are all in the reflecting pool, and yet they are giving him unbridled power. Just amazing.

Suppose that we actually do manage to have a genuine election in 2028 and the next president is a Democrat. What do you think this court does then?

Graves: Well, if the court were principled, and I don’t think it is, then it would, in essence, allow a Democratic Senate to confirm only Democratic appointees to those agencies and let them revise the rules and restore the statutory actions, the regulations that were stripped away by Trump. The reason I’m reluctant to believe that they will allow this to happen is how this court behaved toward Joe Biden and toward Barack Obama.

During the Biden administration, there was a very modest student debt relief proposal. It was, I think, about $10,000 for people who made just about the average income in the United States, and that was based on a law that allowed emergency debt relief. It was expressly allowed for emergency debt relief; we were in an emergency under COVID. People were losing their jobs or weren’t working as the economy was cascading, and that was the basis, the statutory basis, for Biden doing so.

But this Roberts Court asserted that Biden couldn’t do that, that this was a so-called “major questions doctrine,” and things like that had to go through Congress—that a president couldn’t just implement this through a regulation. And yet Donald Trump has done something far broader and deeper than that small, modest debt relief on a daily, if not weekly basis, and the court has barely breathed the words “major questions doctrine.”

And that so-called doctrine, which is really a theory, was invented to gut our power to mitigate climate change through the EPA. That was in a case that Charles Koch and his billionaire-funded groups brought—or basically aided—in the West Virginia v. EPA case, where the Roberts Court invented the notion that the EPA could not regulate carbon without specific congressional approval under the so-called major questions doctrine. And so, in that instance, what you had was again what I consider to be a modest effort to mitigate climate change by way of requiring utilities to invest more in solar and wind energy to help address the climate changes underway—not a radical cutting off of fossil fuels or anything, but just a transition.

Krugman: Right.

Graves: And that was blocked by the Roberts Court. So when it comes to a Democratic president, they seem very eager to block actions that are ameliorating or compromises. But when it comes to a Republican president, they seem very eager to do the opposite—to allow even some of the most radical actions to take hold and proceed while litigation goes forward, or even to authorize and give a blessing to those actions.

But there’s hope. Should I say there’s hope? There is hope. Can I tell you why I think that?

Krugman: Well, sure. What is the hope, actually? What does “Supreme Court Project 2029” look like? What do we do?

Graves: Look, this is a situation where we have not just executive branch aggrandizement, but we have judicial supremacy happening. We have a Roberts Court that is deciding that it is the decider—basically being the kingmaker for Donald Trump—but also the decider on almost any issue that they want to take up and issue a decree on. And that is disempowering to the American people, to representative government, to our democracy.

And so what we need to have is a really robust Congress. In my personal view, we need to elect people to Congress who are going to clean house, who are going to deal with this corruption in the near term, who are going to investigate this corruption and engage in oversight in ways that make it crystal clear to as many people as possible how this is not a tenable way to run a democracy, and then build on that to hopefully sweep into power real reformers in 2029. Like what happened with Franklin Delano Roosevelt, where you have a real surge in demand by the American people to clean things up and create policies that actually help the American people.

If we can move forward despite the threats this president is making with the aid of this court in terms of intervening in this midterm election with the map drawing, if the will of the people can prevail as you see it in the polls, then we have a real chance not just at a rebuke of this corruption, but actually of creating new ways to protect our interests and having an even more vigorous federal government that can help serve our needs. But that’s going to also require court reform to be part of it, because this court will strike down the same thing if it’s passed again unless we reform this court.

Krugman: Okay, but what does reform look like? Is it court packing? Is it something like that?

Graves: I think it’s all of the above. I think we have to have a real conversation about how we contain this out-of-control court. It could be expanding the court; there’s no number set in the Constitution. Nine isn’t the magic number. The Republicans were willing to have eight as long as it served them, you know, when they were blocking Barack Obama’s nominee.

I think we have to look at jurisdictional reform. Article III of the Constitution specifically allows Congress to set the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court—it’s in plain language there.

We certainly need ethics reform because the court has also been enveloped in a cloud of scandal over trips and kissing up to billionaires by Clarence Thomas and other members of that court.

And we also need to have a real sense of our power in the 21st century, the American people’s power, to have a people’s Congress that actually represents our interests and not just the interests of the richest few. Because of this Roberts Court in the Citizens United ruling, because of the concentration of wealth as Ronald Reagan sought to take down the progressive taxation of billionaires, we now have these billionaires who have so much money they can invest millions, hundreds of millions, in elections without missing a beat.

I did a calculation once, by the way, on Jeff Yass in terms of his spending in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race. His spending, which was in the millions, was the equivalent of an ordinary Pennsylvanian buying a coffee and a bagel once a week. And that’s not just because they’re lucky and they’ve got money to invest in risk; it’s because the tax rate is so out of whack and has to be fixed as well.

Krugman: Okay, well, let’s hope for the best. But my god, that’s among the reasons not to celebrate the 250th anniversary as wholeheartedly as one might have liked. Thanks for talking to me, and especially on such short notice.

Graves: Gosh. Well, I will just say, you know, there still is a lot to celebrate, and we can set the course of the next 250 years if we don’t give up and we don’t give in.

Krugman: Okay. On that note, let’s press on with the fight we are in, as Lincoln would have said.

Quoting Anthropic

We’ve received notice that the Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

We'll begin restoring access tomorrow, and will share an update soon.

Anthropic, on Twitter

Tags: anthropic, claude, generative-ai, claude-mythos, ai, llms

Nano Banana 2 Lite

Nano Banana 2 Lite

Also known as Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Image (gemini-3.1-flash-lite-image in their API), this is the "fastest and cheapest Gemini image model, engineered for velocity and scale".

I used AI studio to run this prompt:

Do a where's Waldo style image but it's where is the raccoon holding a ham radio

Densely illustrated "Where's Waldo"-style cartoon of a woodland festival filled with anthropomorphic animals (bears, foxes, badgers, rabbits, squirrels, owls) under a banner reading "FOREE'S FESTIVAL" and another reading "FOREST FIVAL," with bunting flags strung between trees, a Ferris wheel on the right, market stalls including one labeled "ACORN FAIR," signs reading "BANDSTAND," "HAM RADIO MEET" (appearing twice), and a stage where a bear plays guitar, a raccoon uses a ham radio, a badger plays drums, an owl looks on, and a fox plays trumpet, with crowds of animals wandering forest paths between trees and mountains in the background.

I like that one better than the results I got from the other Nano Banana models when I tried this back in April. It spelled Forest Festival wrong in two different ways though.

Via Hacker News

Tags: google, ai, generative-ai, llms, gemini, text-to-image, llm-release, nano-banana

Why are parts of this asteroid's surface so smooth? Why are parts of this asteroid's surface so smooth?


Fables of the Reconstruction/Reconstruction of the Fables

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What I’ve been reading

1. Elizabeth Buchanan, So You Want to Own Greenland?  A useful and dispassionate overview of the relevant history and issues.  The author is from Australia.  I had not known that Norway unilaterally claimed parts of eastern Greenland in the early 1930s, though gave it back to Denmark following a Hague adjudication and ruling.

2. Andrea Wulf, The Traveler: One Man’s Epic Quest for Discover Our Shared Humanity.  This book meets her usual high standards.  In this case the traveler is George Foster, who sailed with Cook to the South Seas and had relatively sympathetic attitudes toward the indigenous peoples there.

3. James Hawes, The Shortest History of Ireland.  From a useful series, even if some of the claims are wrong and the judgments intemperate.  Such books force you to think through your own views and interpretations, they serve as refreshers for the basic history, and they do give you conceptual frameworks of a sort.  You are more likely to remember the core histories when you read books like this, but caution typically is in order as well.

4. Simon Warrack, Monumental: Great Buildings of the World Through the Hands and Eyes of a Stonemason.  An engaging book about the beauties of stonemasonry, with case studies of Venice, Angkor Wat, Lalibela, Zimbabwe and other locales.

5. Roger Zelazny, Lord of Light.  Yup.  “Earth is long since dead.  On a colony planet, a band of men has gained control of technology, made themselves immortal, and now rule their world as gods of the Hindu pantheon.”  First published in 1967.

The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The New Red Scare

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A specter is haunting America — the specter of socialism. Or as President Trump would like people to believe: Commies! Rotten stinkin’ Reds, I tell ya!

Here’s what Trump said at the latest Faith & Freedom Coalition conference:

Communism is very easy to sell. It destroys everything, but it’s very easy. I’ll be honest, I think I’d be the greatest communist in history. I’d give free rent. Ladies and gentlemen, from now on, you don’t have to pay any rent. From now on, anybody wants a house, don’t worry about it. Just pick the house you want. Everybody gets free food. Everything is free from this point forward. Everyone is going to vote for me.

The problem is, after two or three years, the country is a disaster area. The country fails. They always do. It always does. So easy to sell. That first year, boy, you’re the most popular. It’s happening right now in New York and California. But you’ll start living in squalor. You’ll live in squalor. There will be no food. There will be no housing. There will be no military. There will be no law and order. There will be no nothing. You’ll be a third-world inhabitant in every way, and everyone will suffer or die. You’ll suffer or die. That’s what happens. For thousands of years, it’s been happening, by different names. Thousands of years.

Thousands of years of communism! Marx would be so proud.

The president is not a subtle man, nor is he a particularly skilled propagandist, so he often substitutes his own impulses and prejudices where a smarter politician would have a better grasp on what might be persuasive. In this case, Trump is trapped in his favorite decade, the 1980s. Back then he was already famous but still young, and Ronald Reagan’s Cold War — which was more fun and entertaining than the darker version of earlier years — was the dominant political conflict of the era.

Trump is of course conflating communism, which no one in mainstream American politics advocates, with socialism. But how successful can Republicans be at making Americans terrified of the socialist tide sweeping the country?

The socialist moment

As I’ve often argued, politics is all about timing, and the socialists are definitely having their moment. A number of candidates who either call themselves democratic socialists, are members of the Democratic Socialists of America, or are mostly in agreement with the DSA on both issues and tactics have won Democratic primaries recently. That starts with two current mayors (Zohran Mamdani in New York and Katie Wilson in Seattle) and one mayor-to-be (Janeese Lewis-George in Washington), then goes through the successful congressional candidates Mamdani endorsed, and will keep on going as the primary season proceeds. (As Michael Tomasky points out, these people are really more social democrats than democratic socialists, but that distinction will be lost on most everyone.)

The next notable upset could be in Tuesday’s primary in Colorado, where Rep. Diana DeGette, who has been in Congress for three decades, is facing a surprisingly strong challenge from 29-year-old Melat Kiros, a lawyer and grad student. As you’d expect, this trend has produced both consternation from centrist Democrats and some over-the-top rhetoric from Republicans.

The Democrats waving their hands in panic at all these democratic socialists with the temerity to threaten politicians with previously secure sinecures, and the Republicans who are just spitting the word “socialist” at every opportunity, share some assumptions about how the American electorate will greet this new development.

First, they assume that if there are some democratic socialists about, voters will extrapolate their impressions of those socialists to all Democrats. Second, they assume that the average voter knows what socialism is. And third, they assume those voters despise socialism and will recoil from it in horror.

Those three assumptions might be valid. But there isn’t actually much evidence for them. And most importantly, how Americans react to the new socialism is not predetermined.

Communism? What was that again?

As I said, Trump is stuck in the 1980s in a whole lot of ways. But what’s most important about that era is that it predates the consciousness of most Americans. The Soviet bloc began its collapse in 1989, bringing an end to the Cold War. In order to have vivid, emotionally weighted memories of what it was like to live in fear of communism, you’d have to be older than 50 at the very least. That’s a little over a third of the population; many people that old couldn’t care less, and for the rest it’s a weird idea out of ancient history. Just saying “That guy’s a communist” not only doesn’t immediately create fear and hatred toward the target, it barely makes any sense.

But what about socialism, which means many different things but is more alive in the present? The current renaissance of the DSA is being drive mostly by young people, mostly in cities. As Harold Meyerson pointed out when discussing Nithya Raman’s challenge to incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, ideologically the two are barely distinguishable; “the only real reason why Raman is a DSA member and Bass is not is generational. Raman is 44; Bass is 72. When Bass was young, there was no viable socialist movement in the United States and most of the New Deal’s guardrails against capitalism running amok were still in place.”

But Republicans seem to think it’s enough to say “Yuck, socialism,” just as they have been saying forever. In fact, they’ve always called literally everything Democrats want to do “socialism,” no matter how far from socialism it actually was.

The short-term strategy was to discredit whatever Republicans were arguing against, but over the long term it may have had the opposite effect. It made them look silly, like Ronald Reagan warning in 1961 that if the bill creating Medicare passed, “We are going to spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it once was like in America when men were free.” Not only do they come to sound like the boy who cried wolf, but if everything from improving schools to providing health care to investing in infrastructure is “socialism,” at least some voters may conclude that socialism doesn’t sound so bad.

The two best-known democratic socialists in America today are the charming old curmudgeon Bernie Sanders, and the happy and charismatic Zohran Mamdani, neither of whom are as threatening as Fox News personalities would like them to be. Mamdani in particular has been aggressively pursuing what we used to call “sewer socialism,” improving constituents’ quality of life by providing basic services. Here’s how he described it last Sunday to ABC’s “This Week”:

JONATHAN KARL: Republicans are going to make you the poster child for the Democratic Party.

MAMDANI: Let them. We don’t have to ask ourselves what life looks like if a socialist wins. I won last November, and over the course of these last six months, what we’ve delivered for working people are the very things we were told were impossible.

We’ve delivered free childcare for two-year-olds for the first time in New York City history. We’ve delivered tens of millions of dollars back to tenants who were taken advantage of by bad landlords. We’ve delivered 165,000 potholes being paved. And we’ve done all of these things while also delivering the lowest recorded crime in our city’s history. That’s what it looks like to have Democratic socialism. And what you’re seeing is that New Yorkers experienced this for six months and made the decision that they wanted to see more of it on the national stage as well.

But how do people really feel about socialism? Given how hard Republicans work to make people afraid of it, the answer is, not so bad. Here’s a Gallup poll from last September:

And here’s how feel about capitalism:

Capitalism is more popular than socialism overall, though not among Democrats, and barely among independents. This is the important context. Even if most Americans aren’t willing to throw out capitalism entirely, millions feel that it isn’t really working for them. And unlike in the 1950s or 1980s, there are actually prominent people in public debate now making an affirmative case for some version of socialism. And who is making the case for capitalism? Tech oligarchs, Wall Street vultures, and slimy Republican congresscritters. Meanwhile, the most visible face of capitalism is an utterly corrupt one (Trump’s), the scam economy has ballooned, and people feel not only that they’re struggling to get by but that capitalism as it is organized today is making their future prospects gloomy.

The image of socialism is not fixed

Because most of them are very bad at politics, centrist Democrats have been freaking out about the new socialist momentum, and rushing to reporters to say how awful it is that their party has been infected by this virus. Some of them even put out a little manifesto (“We are capitalist, not socialist”). They’re obviously terrified that someone will say “You’re just like those New York socialists!” and they’ll have to answer for what some candidate in another state tweeted ten years ago. Republicans want to make everyone afraid of socialism; centrist Democrats are more afraid than anyone.

Yes, Republicans will say that socialism is horrible and if there are three or four elected Democrats who call themselves socialists, that means every Democrat is a socialist. But I would caution against a temptation Democrats often succumb to, which is to conclude that if Republicans say something a lot, voters must be persuaded by it. They believe this even when there’s no evidence to support the idea.

How voters think about socialism, furthermore, is not static. If the socialists aren’t going away, what should a centrist Democrat hope the average voter concludes about socialism? That it is a dangerous, radical ideology and anyone with even the remotest connection to it (like being in the same party as someone who says they’re a socialist) should be shunned and defeated?

Of course not. What centrist Democrats ought to hope is that the average voter concludes that socialism is a somewhat leftier version of what most Democrats believe in, and therefore not something to be all that afraid of.

Here’s the good news: Centrist Democrats can help convince voters to make that conclusion! When they’re asked about some DSA member, they shouldn’t say “I renounce and denounce that despicable radical! Begone, foul demon!” Instead, they can say “I don’t agree with her on everything, but that’s okay — this party is a big tent. When she comes to Congress I’ll work with her where we agree, and try to persuade her where we don’t. But here’s what we do agree on: Donald Trump is a catastrophe, democracy needs to be restored, and government should work to help people lead a better life rather than just being a trough that corrupt politicians and their oligarch friends feed at. That’s what’s important.”

It’s not a hard argument to make. You just have to show a little spine.

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Minute Man National Historical Park

2015-10-15 00:00:00
October 15, 2015
2015-10-15 00:00:00

Editor’s note: In honor of America’s 250th birthday, Earth Observatory is revisiting stories about the landscapes that helped shape U.S. history. The images and text on this page were originally published on July 4, 2016. Explore the full collection here.

The Greater Boston area, encompassing the eastern third of Massachusetts, is a playground for the American history enthusiast. Sites important to the American Revolutionary War are interspersed throughout the modern-day metropolitan region; the view from space shows how preserved historic landscapes coexist with the new.

The top image shows a wide view of the area, from Boston Harbor to Minute Man National Historical Park. The natural-color image was acquired on October 15, 2015, with the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on the Landsat 8 satellite.

In December 1773, American colonists protested British taxation and regulation by dumping hundreds of chests of tea overboard from merchant ships into Boston Harbor. The series of events that followed—including the march of British troops westward to confiscate a cache of weapons—culminated in battles in the towns of Lexington and Concord. The battles marked the start of the Revolutionary War in April 1775.

The conflicts near Concord and Lexington are memorialized at Minute Man National Historical Park, shown in detail in the second image. By the 1950s, the area grew crowded with roads and suburban growth. Gas stations, restaurants, and an airfield all cropped up in an area that was once farmland and open fields. The park was established in 1959 in part to protect the historic landscape from further development.

Route 2A cuts through the park, and Hanscom Field still stands as a nearby reminder of 20th-century modernization. In 2003, the National Trust for Historic Preservation listed Minute Man National Historical Park and nearby historic sites as one of the 11 most endangered historical places in the United States.

Steps have been taken to restore historic structures and to return the landscape to one that more closely resembles the look and feel of the 18th century. For example, many power lines have been removed; stone walls have been rebuilt; and agricultural fields have been opened up. In 2009, the park boundaries grew to include the now-restored Barrett House and its surrounding farm, an important landmark of the war.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

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What Song is on Repeat in Your Head?

  1. What’s it like to be you?
  2. Where did you get your name? What’s your story?
  3. What do you want to be when you grow up? What haven’t you done?
  4. What do you want to change?
  5. What are you most proud of?
  6. What achievement are you most proud of?
  7. Are you happy? What makes you happy?
  8. Are you having fun? What do you do for play?
  9. What is missing? What happened?
  10. Why are you lucky?
  11. What person/event changed you the most?
  12. Who taught you the most?
  13. Who do you trust and why?
  14. What song is on repeat in your head?

I was sitting at dinner with dear friends, and we made a list of questions we love to ask.

NASA may send a backup, nuclear-powered Mars rover to the Moon

NASA officials said Tuesday that they are seriously considering sending the full-scale engineering model of the Perseverance rover, which is currently housed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, to the Moon to expedite their efforts to explore the south pole region.

The car-sized rover nicknamed "Promise," which serves as a testbed for Perseverance and was not otherwise planned for a launch, would land equipped with a multi-mission radioisotope thermoelectric generator (MMRTG) to power it across difficult terrain and through the lunar night. NASA's other rovers primarily operate on solar power.

"We are thinking very hard right now about sending Promise to the Moon," NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said Tuesday during a monthly update on the agency's plans to build a Moon base.

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Security and sustainability in space: a proposed cap-and-trade model for orbital debris mitigation

Orbital debris poses a growing risk to satellite operations with no clear solution for addressing it. Isha Gupta proposes an approach based on regulating pollutants as a way to control the debris population.

The last days of the Persian Cats

The conflict in the Middle East may have destroyed the last of Iran's F-14 Tomcats that it bought from the US a half-century ago. Dwayne Day and Harry Stranger describe how spysats tracked the status of those planes for decades.

A new age for astronomy enabled by space-based solar power

One of the criticisms of space-based solar power (SPSB) systems is that the platforms would interfere with astronomy. Benjamin Calloway describes how SBSP could also create technologies to enable space-based astronomy.

Deep Black on the West Coast (part 3): The many missions of the Air Force's Special Projects office

The National Museum of the United States Air Force dedicated a monument last month to those who worked in a secretive organization supporting the National Reconnaissance Office during the Cold War. Dwayne Day provides more details about and photos of the memorial.

Tuesday 30 June 1663

Up betimes yesterday and to-day, the sun rising very bright and glorious; and yet yesterday, as it hath been these two months and more, was a foul day the most part of the day.

By and by by water to White Hall, and there to my Lord’s lodgings by appointment, whither Mr. Creed comes to me, having been at Chelsey this morning to fetch my Lord to St. James’s. So he and I to the Park, where we understand that the King and Duke are gone out betimes this morning on board the East India ships lately come in, and so our meeting appointed is lost. But he and I walked at the further end of the Park, not to be observed, whither by and by comes my Lord Sandwich, and he and we walked two hours and more in the Park and then in White Hall Gallery, and lastly in White Hall garden, discoursing of Mr. Creed’s accounts, and how to answer the Treasurer’s objections. I find that the business is 500l. deep, the advantage of Creed, and why my Lord and I should be concerned to promote his profit with so much dishonour and trouble to us I know not, but however we shall do what we can, though he deserves it not, for there is nothing even to his own advantage that can be got out of him, but by mere force. So full of policy he is in the smallest matters, that I perceive him to be made up of nothing but design. I left him here, being in my mind vexed at the trouble that this business gets me, and the distance that it makes between Sir G. Carteret and myself, which I ought to avoyd. Thence by water home and to dinner, and afterwards to the office, and there sat till evening, and then I by water to Deptford to see Sir W. Pen, who lies ill at Captain Rooth’s, but in a way to be well again this weather, this day being the only fair day we have had these two or three months. Among other discourse I did tell him plainly some of my thoughts concerning Sir W. Batten. and the office in general, upon design for him to understand that I do mind things and will not balk to take notice of them, that when he comes to be well again he may know how to look upon me.

Thence homeward walked, and in my way met Creed coming to meet me, and then turned back and walk a while, and so to boat and home by water, I being not very forward to talk of his business, and he by design the same, to see how I would speak of it, but I did not, but in general terms, and so after supper with general discourse to bed and sleep.

Thus, by God’s blessing, ends this book of two years; I being in all points in good health and a good way to thrive and do well. Some money I do and can lay up, but not much, being worth now above 700l., besides goods of all sorts. My wife in the country with Ashwell, her woman, with my father; myself at home with W. Hewer and my cooke-maid Hannah, my boy Wayneman being lately run away from me.

In my office, my repute and understanding good, especially with the Duke and Mr. Coventry; only the rest of the officers do rather envy than love me, I standing in most of their lights, specially Sir W. Batten, whose cheats I do daily oppose to his great trouble, though he appears mighty kind and willing to keep friendship with me, while Sir J. Minnes, like a dotard, is led by the nose by him. My wife and I, by my late jealousy, for which I am truly to be blamed, have not the kindness between us which we used and ought to have, and I fear will be lost hereafter if I do not take course to oblige her and yet preserve my authority. Publique matters are in an ill condition; Parliament sitting and raising four subsidys for the King, which is but a little, considering his wants; and yet that parted withal with great hardness. They being offended to see so much money go, and no debts of the publique’s paid, but all swallowed by a luxurious Court: which the King it is believed and hoped will retrench in a little time, when he comes to see the utmost of the revenue which shall be settled on him: he expecting to have his 1,200,000l. made good to him, which is not yet done by above 150,000l., as he himself reports to the House.

My differences with my uncle Thomas at a good quiett, blessed be God! and other matters.

The town full of the great overthrow lately given to the Spaniards by the Portugalls, they being advanced into the very middle of Portugall.

The weather wet for two or three months together beyond belief, almost not one fair day coming between till this day, which has been a very pleasant [day] and the first pleasant [day] this summer.

The charge of the Navy intended to be limited to 200,000l. per annum, the ordinary charge of it, and that to be settled upon the Customs.

The King yet greatly taken up with Madam Castlemaine and Mrs. Stewart, which God of Heaven put an end to!

Myself very studious to learn what I can of all things necessary for my place as an officer of the Navy, reading lately what concerns measuring of timber and knowledge of the tides.

I have of late spent much time with Creed, being led to it by his business of his accounts, but I find him a fellow of those designs and tricks, that there is no degree of true friendship to be made with him, and therefore I must cast him off, though he be a very understanding man, and one that much may be learned of as to cunning and judging of other men. Besides, too, I do perceive more and more that my time of pleasure and idleness of any sort must be flung off to attend to getting of some money and the keeping of my family in order, which I fear by my wife’s liberty may be otherwise lost.

Read the annotations

Astronauts ‘operate’ on space station’s broken robot arm

Astronaut Chris Williams shows off a “strong man” pose 260 miles above Earth during a break in work to repair the International Space Station’s robot arm. Image: NASA

Two NASA astronauts floating outside the International Space Station carried out a bit of orbital surgery Tuesday, successfully replacing a broken 200-pound “wrist” joint near the end of the lab’s 58-foot-long robot arm.

“That is a good install, you guys. I know that was tough. Wonderful work,” Canadian astronaut Jenni Gibbons called up from mission control toward the end of the seven-hour 20-minute excursion.

On May 27, flight controllers at the Johnson Space Center in Houston noticed one of the Canadian-built arm’s seven joints was drawing more current than expected and not moving properly.

After a detailed review of telemetry, NASA managers and experts with the Canadian Space Agency, which supplied the station arm, concluded the joint had failed and needed to be replaced with a spare, one of two mounted on an external stowage platform.

“Systems like Canadarm2 were designed from the beginning with replaceable components and were planned with maintenance in mind,” said ISS operations and integration manager Bill Spetch. “This is no exception.”

Floating in the Quest airlock, astronaut Jessica Meir, making her fifth spacewalk, and crewmate Chris Williams, making his second, switched their spacesuits to battery power at 8:20 a.m. EDT, officially kicking off the year’s third ISS spacewalk and the 280th overall.

After setting up foot restraints near the stowage platform and positioning the spare joint for installation, Williams and Meir detached the arm’s “hand,” known as the latching end effector, or LEE, along with two other healthy joints.

The 900-pound assembly was temporarily mounted on a nearby shelf, clearing the way for removal of joint No. 5, the 200-pound wrist joint that failed. The replacement joint was successfully installed four-and-a-half hours into the spacewalk.

“We’ll remove the failed joint 5, replace it with the spare joint and then once that’s back on the arm, our last major task will be to get that LEE cluster that we temporarily stowed and put it back onto the robotic arm so that we have a fully assembled arm at the end of the spacewalk,” said flight director Fiona Antkowiak.

Five-and-a-half hours after beginning the spacewalk, Williams and Meir were able to re-attach the LEE cluster as planned. Shortly after, flight controllers powered up the arm and verified good electrical connections through the newly installed joint.

“Today we did hear good confirmation that … Canadarm 2 has two good strings of power and data to the arm,” said NASA commentator Sandra Jones. “So today’s wrist surgery was successful.”

Williams and Mier, meanwhile, collected their tools and headed back to the airlock to close out the spacewalk.

Williams also brought the failed joint back into the airlock so it can eventually be returned to Earth for repairs. Once that work is complete, the refurbished joint and one other will be relaunched to the space station for future use as needed.

The robot arm is critical to normal station operations. It is used to capture Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus cargo ships, pulling them in for berthing, while moving other components — and spacewalkers — from point to point during maintenance operations.

NASA plans to retire the space station by the end of 2030, but Spetch said the agency will continue to maintain the arm throughout because it is vital to ISS operations.

“There’s not a time where we say hey, we’re just done repairing the arm,” he said. “Overall, the arm is critical for station operations and continued maintenance of it throughout to the end of life.”

A swift effort to boost the prospects for satellite servicing

A Pegasus XL is set this week to launch a mission to reboost NASA's Swift space telescope. Jeff Foust reports on the rapid development of the unique mission and the prospects of using that technology for other applications, including boosting Hubble.

Blue Origin outlines return to flight logistics for its New Glenn rockets

An artist’s interpretation of the redesigned Launch Complex 36A that supports a hybrid horizontal-vertical integration process for Blue Origin’s New Glenn rockets. Graphic: Blue Origin

Blue Origin continues to analyze the explosion of its New Glenn rocket a little more than a month ago, but on Tuesday, CEO Dave Limp shared the company’s plan for resuming pad operations later this year.

“We continue to actively investigate the cause of the anomaly. The vehicle is highly instrumented with extensive data from multiple camera angles and sensors, giving us confidence in our ability to identify and correct the root cause,” Limp wrote. “Early analysis points to the aft section of the first stage.”

Spaceflight Now reached out to Blue Origin to inquire into whether this description indicated an issue with one or more of the Blue Origin-built BE-4 engines on the first stage. A response wasn’t provided prior to publication.

A couple days prior on June 28, Limp shared a short video to social media that showed the assembly of a large crane that will be used for the disassembly of the vehicle access tower that was left standing following the explosion, but was damaged. A few days before that, Limp noted that “wreckage recovery from start to finish was completed in nine days and all debris has been cleared from Launch Complex 36.”

The rocket was slated to launch the company’s first Blue Moon Mark 1 cargo lander, named Endurance, to the Moon as soon as late summer. It will carry some NASA science payloads onboard and was designated Moon Base 1 during an agency event on May 26.

But the damage to the pad and the mishap investigation are pushing that timeline to early 2027, according to Limp.

During the second Moon Base event on Tuesday, Carlos García-Galán, NASA’s Moon Base Program Executive, said the agency was “working with Blue Origin very closely to understand their timelines to recovery and also looking at all our options in case it doesn’t meet our timeline.”

“We’re paying a lot of attention, again, putting the entire NASA capability at the service of making this vendor successful,” García-Galán said.

An artist’s rendering of Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 lunar lander on the surface of the Moon. Graphic: Blue Origin

He explained that for the NASA-led Moon Base, the agency wants multiple landers available for  the program to keep a flow of infrastructure heading to the lunar surface to bolster learning for future, permanent infrastructure.

“We’ve been focused on helping Blue Origin with the determination of the root cause, we will help with building the infrastructure, but then we’re looking at options, like can we fly the Mark 1 lander — which is in tact and was not associated with the anomaly — can we fly that on a different rocket or then we’ll look at all the options for the payloads, depending on the timeline of the rocket getting back,” García-Galán said.

Sitting beside García-Galán, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman added to that by stating that Blue Origin was “very committed” to resuming launches by the end of calendar year 2026. He said their recovery progress so far was “almost beyond impressive.”

“We’ve got time beyond that point, into 2027, before we’re getting nervous,” Isaacman said.

Concerning the path to launching the Blue Moon Mk.1 landers, he added, “Plan A was always New Glenn and Plan A is looking a lot better today than it was weeks ago, just based on the progress that the Blue Origin team is making.”

Beyond its first Blue Moon Mk.1 demonstration mission funded by Blue Origin, the cargo lander is also relying on New Glenn to launch NASA’s VIPER mission as well as lunar terrain vehicles developed by Lunar Outpost and Astrolab. The Blue Moon Mk.2 will be used on future crewed missions as part of the Artemis Program.

Moving to a hybrid model

As part of the company’s effort to return to flight before the end of the calendar year, Limp said Blue Origin would shift from an entirely horizontal integration model that relied on the now destroyed transporter-erector to one that utilizes some vertical integration elements as well. 

“We’re going straight to a horizontal/vertical hybrid CONOPS we had already been developing for our 9×4 New Glenn launch vehicle, using existing infrastructure, skipping a new transporter-erector, and creating a common CONOPS across two pads,” Limp wrote.

An artist’s interpretation of the redesigned Launch Complex 36A that supports a hybrid horizontal-vertical integration process for Blue Origin’s New Glenn rockets. Graphic: Blue Origin

In a break down on its website, Blue Origin said for future New Glenn launches, it would integrate the first and second stages inside the horizontal integration facility adjacent to LC-36A. It would then be transported to the pad where a crane would hoist the rocket into a vertical orientation.

Blue Origin said this is “the reverse of the operation already used to offload the booster from Jacklyn.” The rocket is then placed “onto a refurbished launch table, where it mates to the launch vehicle hold-down ring. Umbilical connections are made between the main tower and the rocket.”

Renderings and an animation show that a platform fits around the upper part of the Glenn Stage 2 (GS2) upper stage as teams prepare the payload inside the fairing to be transported to the pad. That is then hoisted onto the rocket by the same crane the lifted the rocket.

The crane is cleared from the pad prior to a launch attempt. While not stated explicitly in the update, the crane may also be cleared from the pad prior to a static fire test of the booster.

An artist’s interpretation of the redesigned Launch Complex 36A that supports a hybrid horizontal-vertical integration process for Blue Origin’s New Glenn rockets. Graphic: Blue Origin

Differentiation drives the erosion of positivity on social media

We live in a digital age, where billions of people engage in dialogue within topic-bound communities and threads. In an archival analysis of over 2 billion Reddit comments and an experiment, we show that this dialogue becomes more negative over time. Further analyses suggest that negativity rises over time because social media users seek to make unique comments on the same topic, and it is easier to differentiate oneself through negative comments than through positive comments. As threads and communities evolve, and it becomes more difficult to make unique observations, users turn to negativity. Our studies show how basic human motives interact with the structure of social media platforms, posing an acute challenge for sustaining healthy online dialogue.

Here is the article by Hongkai Mao, et.al. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.  For some of you commenters, how does it feel to be a puppet in the unfolding of this game?

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Dangerous Heat in the Central and Eastern U.S.; Severe Thunderstorms in the Central U.S. and Northeast; Critical Fire Weather in the Four Corners

A Most “Pleasantly Situated” Estate

A Most “Pleasantly Situated” Estate
August 25, 2024

Editor’s note: In honor of America’s 250th birthday, Earth Observatory is revisiting stories about the landscapes that helped shape U.S. history. The images and text on this page were originally published on February 17, 2025. Explore the full collection here.

George Washington was born in 1732 on his family’s tobacco plantation at Popes Creek in Westmoreland County, Virginia. Three years later, he moved up the Potomac River to Little Hunting Creek Plantation, a property later renamed Mount Vernon. The riverside property, approximately 15 miles (24 kilometers) south of Washington, D.C., was central to the man who became the first U.S. president.

Though the family soon moved to Fredericksburg, Virginia, and resided there for much of his youth, Washington began managing the Mount Vernon property in 1759, soon after his marriage to Martha Dandridge. Washington’s letters make clear that he cherished and longed for this place during his long absences as a surveyor, military commander, and politician—a location he called the most “pleasantly situated” estate in the United States. It was where he helped raise two stepchildren, four step-grandchildren, and an array of crops and livestock. It was also where he was laid to rest in 1799 at the age of 67.

The OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 captured this image of Mount Vernon and its surroundings on August 25, 2024. While much of the land surrounding the estate has been developed into things like suburban neighborhoods, shopping areas, and military bases, fragments of the pristine forests, farmland, and riverscapes that Washington would recognize remain.

In a 1793 letter to Arthur Young, an English agricultural expert and reformer, Washington expounded on the virtues of Mount Vernon’s land.

It lyes in a high, dry & healthy country, 300 miles by water from the Sea—and, as you will see by the plan, on one of the finest Rivers in the world. Its margin is washed by more than ten miles of tidewater; from the bed of which, and the enumerable coves, inlets & small marshes with which it abounds, an inexhaustable fund of rich mud may be drawn as a manure; either to be used seperately, or in a compost.

Toward the end of his life, Washington’s land holdings extended across five farms centered on Mount Vernon. The map below, based on one of Washington’s drawings, shows their layout. The Mansion House Farm encompassed Mount Vernon, with Union Farm and Dogue Run Farm to the west. Muddy Hole Farm lay to the north and River Farm to the east.

An 1801 map of Mount Vernon from a drawing provided by George Washington. Four other farms that were part of Washington’s land holdings are situated around Mount Vernon.

Washington was known as an innovative landowner who, with the labor of hundreds of enslaved people, took unusual care to manage his crops sustainably. For instance, he shifted much of his production to wheat and corn and started experimenting with a seven-year crop rotation system and cover crops to better preserve the health of his soil after realizing that growing tobacco depleted its fertility.

While most crops were raised at the outlying farms, Mount Vernon’s gardens were showcases for visitors and laboratories for experimentation. The showy upper garden was a formal garden near the mansion with carefully trimmed dwarf boxwood hedges and a heated greenhouse with lemons, oranges, and rare plants.

Closer to the river was the lower garden, a kitchen garden brimming with vegetables, and a small garden that Washington called “my botanick garden,” where he spent much of his time experimenting with new varieties. Even closer to the river was the fruit garden, an experimental orchard where the estate raised pears, cherries, peaches, and apples. This may have been the source of the centuries-old preserved cherries that archaeologists unearthed in Mount Vernon’s cellar in 2024.

A wider view of the satellite image includes more of the Potomac River and all of Washington, D.C.

The lands connecting the five farms—his “wilderness,” Washington called it—were a forested area where he often spent time hunting and fishing. Species such as oak, hickory, and heath shrubs dominated the forests in Washington’s time. Dozens of the same plant species from that period are still found on the estate’s forests in modern times, though large numbers of non-native species have established themselves as well.

One of the larger open spaces visible in the Landsat image above is Fort Hunt Park. Once part of Washington’s River Farm, Fort Hunt was constructed in 1897 to bolster Washington D.C.’s defenses during a period of heightened tensions with Spain. Across the Potomac River stands Fort Washington Park, home to ruins of a fort that was used to defend the city during the Mexican-American War and the American Civil War.

Across the river in Maryland lies another property with a connection to George and Martha Washington. National Colonial Farm in Piscataway Park was established in 1958 to preserve the couple’s beloved views across the Potomac. Today, National Colonial Farm is a living farm museum and features several 18th-century heirloom varieties of herbs, flowers, and vegetables, including “Orinoco” tobacco, red May wheat, and Virginia white gourdseed corn.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Map of Washington’s farm courtesy of the Library of Congress. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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The post A Most “Pleasantly Situated” Estate appeared first on NASA Science.

Tuesday assorted links

1. Korinek, Autor, and Gimbel on AI and jobs (WSJ).

2. New economics job at OpenAI.

3. State capacity as an organizational problem.

4. Alex Ross is stepping down as music critic for The New Yorker.

5. More on the depolarizing effects of current AI.

6. The end of landlines in Finland is pending.

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June 24, 2026.   Flight 66.

Tragedy double whammy. Caught up in commemorating the downing of Air India flight 182 (see post below), I’d forgotten that the very next day was the anniversary of the crash of Eastern flight 66.

On June 24th, 1975, the Boeing 727 went down while attempting to land at Kennedy Airport, splattering across Rockaway Boulevard at the foot of runway 22L. The crash killed 113 of the 124 passengers and crew.

This was a watershed accident, as it ushered in a more intensive study of windshear — particularly low-level microbursts. The work of a meteorologist named Ted Fajita became instrumental in better understanding the phenomenon.

If you can track down a copy, there’s a riveting account of the flight 66 disaster in James Kaplan’s book, The Airport.

 

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Data Breach at Indian Supplier Tata Electronics Exposes iPhone 18 Pro Details and Photos

Munsif Vengattil, Aditya Kalra, and Stephen Nellis, reporting for Reuters:

Sensitive lists of components and suppliers, ​and photos of Apple’s upcoming iPhone 18 Pro models are part of files posted on the dark web by the ransomware group that stole data from the U.S. firm’s Indian supplier Tata Electronics, according to documents and a source.

The exposure threatens the carefully negotiated business of building the iPhone, which Apple assembles from a thicket of suppliers worldwide. It could also upset Apple and its relationship with Tata given most of the supplier arrangements are fiercely protected by Apple, and could also hand rivals, counterfeiters and its own vendors a ​view of who makes what. [...]

Apple ​considers this detail sensitive and is concerned about the documents being shared on the dark web as they relate to unreleased models, according to the person familiar with the matter. The data maps suppliers to iPhone parts, which Apple does not disclose in its public database of suppliers, the person added.

In all, the documents detail hundreds of parts to be on the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro models. The records also show where Apple draws a part from several suppliers and where it relies on just a few, laying bare both its bargaining leverage and its vulnerabilities.

I’m going to say that describing Apple as “concerned” about this data breach might be the biggest euphemism I’ve heard this year. I’m sure they’re furious. Someone at Apple is responsible for putting this trust in Tata, and executives at Tata are surely panicked that they’ve lost future business with Apple.

 ★ 

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Democratic Moderates Have a Turnout Problem

While there has been wailing and gnashing of teeth over how Mamdani-backed candidates seized all three branches of governmentwon three Democratic primaries, what these elections show is how bad Democratic moderates are at turning out their supporters. In the most publicized Democratic primary race, the Chevalier-Espaillat race in NY-13, the DSA-backed candidate Chevalier received ~9.7% of eligible Democratic primary votes, while the moderate Democrat, Espillat, received around nine percent of eligible Democratic primary votes (the Democratic primaries are the de facto election).

Regardless of what one thinks about Chevalier (I have some serious doubts), all Espaillat needed to do was to convince one percent of eligible Democratic primary voters to vote for him. It’s not like there was high turnout or a huge margin of defeat, which would have forced him to ‘convert’ over Chevalier voters, he should have been able to do that. Considering eighty percent of eligible voters didn’t vote at all, getting one out of eighty stay-at-home voters to show up and vote should be easy for someone who has held the seat for a decade. Yet he couldn’t do that.

That’s not even the worst case: in a NY state assembly race in New York City, the DSA candidate won with seven percent of the eligible vote (to the non-DSA candidate’s five percent). When the overwhelming majority of voters stay home, it should not be hard to find votes.

Higher primary turnout would be preferable for democracy as a whole–and D.C.’s Democratic primaries had 38.7% turnout (good job everyone, but let’s do even better next time!). By the way, in D.C., the democratic socialist still won the mayor’s race, even with that level of turnout. But when moderates with the advantages of incumbency lose low turnout primaries, that’s not a problem of party takeovers or voter foolishness, that’s a failure by establishment candidates to turnout their own voters.

Some Thoughts on a Possible Big Primary Upset(s) in Colorado

We’ve got more primaries coming up tomorrow night, specifically in the state of Colorado. I must confess that it was only in the last couple days that I realized that incumbent Senator John Hickenlooper (D), the former mayor of Denver and governor of Colorado, stands a real chance of going down to defeat. Needless to say that would be a very big deal since incumbent senators, or at least incumbent Democratic senators, all but never have that happen.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D), who is trying to become the nominee for governor, as well as Dem Rep. Diana DeGette, might also be toast. But it’s Hickenlooper who I want to focus on here. Bennet is running against State Attorney General Phil Weiser whose politics aren’t that distinguishable from Bennet’s; he’s challenging Bennet on the “fight” front. DeGette is being challenging by Melat Kiros, a more questionable figure. But that’s the House and it’s an overwhelmingly Democratic district. Again, I want to focus on Hickenlooper because that has more properly national implications. (To get a detailed rundown of all the races in Colorado here’s a good piece at The Downballot.)

I had not heard much about this primary. And I was a bit taken aback when I heard that Hickenlooper is in real trouble. It’s certainly possible he’ll cruise to renomination. But a mid-May poll showed him ahead of state Sen. Julie Gonzales 41% to 34%. That’s a non-trivial margin. But for a longtime incumbent in a volatile political year that’s a big warning sign, not simply because of the relatively small margin but because of the vast numbers of undecided in a race featuring perhaps the biggest Democratic institution in Colorado politics. Meanwhile, Politico reports today that a Democratic strategist they interviewed had seen a private poll that shows the two in a dead heat.

As I said, these numbers are certainly compatible with Hickenlooper winning. But the energy this year is all on the “fight” side and strongly anti-incumbent. So I would not be shocked to see Gonzales win and for it not even to be that close.

My own reaction to this news was interesting to me. When I hear about an incumbent in trouble like this my own first instinct is wariness or apprehension. That’s not because I’m so crazy about incumbents in general. It’s mostly because I go in with a concern that an insurgent from the left may not be able to win the general. At a certain level it’s probably just reflex, and then I remind myself, well … you’re concerned that the new person might not be able to win the general. Here, though, it’s probably fair to say that Colorado is no longer really a purple state. It’s swung about as hard to the left as … say, Iowa has to the right. So I think you’d have to be a pretty bad candidate and/or a pretty big extremist as a Democrat to lose a general election this year. And Gonzales doesn’t seem like either.

As I was thinking this, and examining the bases of my own reflexes, however, it occurred to me: what will it take for you, Josh, to embrace your own advocacy? Let me explain. Hickenlooper is 74 and says this new term he’s running for will be his last. He’s been in office almost continuously since he was elected mayor of Denver in 2003. He served two terms as mayor and as governor. He seems like a very solid guy. I’m sure I’d like him. But it’s my strong impression that he is very much in the camp of Democratic senators who don’t want to do any of the big necessary things: abolish the filibuster, reform the Supreme Court, fight against encroaching autocracy as opposed to preserve decorum and regular order. In other words, he’s approaching the senate gig as though we were still in the 1990s or perhaps the W. era. To listen to my own oft-repeated arguments, he is the problem. And as I argued a few days ago, this is the kind of thing that has Democratic primary voters on fire now. They want fight.

Gonzales mostly but not entirely fits the mold of other progressive insurgents around the country. I’ve just been reading up on her now and she appears to have worked in Democratic politics and immigration legal work for most of her adult life before being elected to the state senate from a district in Denver in 2018. She’s currently the senate majority whip and she’s had various positions in the state Democratic Party. So while she has the standard Bernie Sanders/progressive list of positions: Medicare for All, Abolish ICE, etc. you can’t say she’s some kind of outsider wrecking ball. She’s part of the Democratic Party establishment in the state, albeit clearly on its left wing. Notably, she was a member of the Democratic Socialists of America from 2018 until last year, when she appears to have allowed her membership to lapse, seemingly (though she doesn’t say this explicitly) to remove a potential complication for her run against Hickenlooper, or at least for some higher office.

As I said, we’ll see what happens tomorrow night. But if Gonzales wins, it will be a true earthquake in the nation’s politics, far more than a House race in the outer boroughs of New York or Washington Heights. As I was hitting “publish” on this post I noticed a New York Times email flagging a new article about the Colorado primaries with the subject line “Will left-wing energy keep rising in Colorado?” As I argued on Friday, I think this mischaracterizes or misunderstandings the dynamic. This isn’t mostly about ideology or policy (at least in the senate and governor’s races; the DeGette-Kiros race may be slightly different). It’s about fight. That’s certainly the case in the gubernatorial primary and I think largely in the senate one as well. But it’s on the left of the party — in Gonzales’s case — where voters are finding it. So that’s where they’re going.

The Supreme Court’s Corruption Must Be Broken

This likely goes without saying. But I’ll say it anyway and add a few points. The occasional non-terribly ruling by the corrupt Supreme Court doesn’t reduce the necessity of reform one iota. I’m not as wound up as I might have been by the anti-constitutional and frankly absurd independent agency ruling only because it was telegraphed so long in advance. (ICYMI, the Court ruled that the president has the authority to fire civil servants, unless they work for the Federal Reserve. More from Kate Riga on that here). I call the ruling absurd only because of what I guess we need to call the as-yet-tact “sound money” doctrine which makes the Fed somehow different from every other independent agency because of the more general “because” doctrine.

What I want to note here is what is semi-taken for granted even by many who despise the Court’s corruption. And that is the way it is more or less assumed now that any law, prohibition, or imperative assumed or embraced by Democrats goes up for review by the Court as though it were some kind of Guardian Council or perhaps more aptly an upper legislative house like the House of Lords. Of course judicial review is not new. That goes back 225 years. Key pieces of New Deal legislation were overruled by the pre-Carolene Products Court. And you have the entire Lochner era in which the Court held that most of what we would now call garden-variety regulation was unconstitutional.

That history certainly anticipates the Court’s current corruption. But I would argue they are qualitatively different. The idea that contract rights largely, if not entirely, trumped state regulation was not a novel doctrine. And the Court at least generally did not oppose the partisan interests of one party over the other, which is certainly the case today. What we have today as part of the openly partisan nature of the Court is that really every major exercise of power by Democrats comes up for review, in many cases where there is not even an existing Federalist Society/conservative legal movement doctrine in play. I would argue that this begins with the Obamacare decision in 2012. It followed a model which has now become entirely familiar. It generally begins with mouthing off and brainstorming on social media — comments that then gets picked up by a few generally obscure law professors who fashion it into an argument. This argument is initially treated as absurd before rapidly gaining traction on the right and then rapidly getting taken up by the Court.

At the time, the “surprise” decision to uphold the Obamacare individual mandate, largely the decision of John Roberts, was seen as a near miss or evidence of Roberts’ institutionalism. In retrospect, it is perhaps better seen as a latter-day version of Marbury v Madison, in which Chief Justice John Marshall cleverly rendered a decision that was of immediate benefit to his partisan opposition in order to entrench the general and empowering principle of judicial review. In the Obamacare case, Roberts allowed the individual mandate to remain (while striking down, on the basis of essentially nothing, Medicaid expansion) in order to lull constitutionalists into accept and even celebrating the purported institutionalism of a Court that would now sit in review of every law passed by Democrats. It is a classic case where the benefit of hindsight provides much greater clarity into what actually happened.

In today’s decisions, it’s certainly good that the Court didn’t reject states’ ability to accept mail ballots dated by Election Day. But the idea that it was even reviewed is absurd. There’s no possible constitutional deficiency in these laws. There’s not even any basis for it in the fraudulent menagerie of Federalist Society jurisprudence. It is purely the product of the short-term partisan interests of the Republican Party and far more so the whims of Donald Trump. All of these states’ laws require absolute evidence that a vote is cast by Election Day. The constitution doesn’t speak to the speed of counting (nor does existing federal law) and the long tail of counting has lasted past election day literally for centuries. Congress might pass a law banning accepting post-dated votes after Election Day. (Even in that case, I think there’d need to be at least some rational basis question for why such a law would exist given that the primary responsibility for election administration rests with states, subject to regulation by congressional statute). In any case, that’s a question on which reasonable people can differ. There is simply no basis on which this can be considered unconstitutional or in violation of existing statutes. At least with the anti-constitutional destruction of independent agencies, which is a war on the legislative branch, the conservative legal movement has obsessed and hungered for for decades. So you can at least grant them that it merely aligns with Trump’s demands rather than being the child of them.

There’s simply no future for real democratic self-government in the United States with this corrupt Court in place. That seems like a vast statement. But it’s accurate. What you have at the moment is a system somewhat — yes — on par with Iran in which you have the structure of democratic self-government but with a Guardian Council that assures that the bad people (i.e. non-Republicans) aren’t actually allowed to exercise power. This is not how even a maximalist judicial review system is supposed to work, and Democrats must break the Court’s corruption at the first possible moment. With some luck, that will come in January 2029.

Turkey’s economic plan to win from the Iran war

The country is a case study in the spillovers of conflict—both positive and negative

Sports Betting, Prediction Markets, and ‘Repugnant Transactions’--a conversation at Covers.com

 I was recently interviewed at the gambling hyper-site Covers.com about the growth of sports gambling both on dedicated sites and on prediction markets.

A Nobel Laureate Talks Sports Betting, Prediction Markets, and ‘Repugnant Transactions’ by Geoff Zochodne -  "Nobel Prize-winning economist Alvin E. Roth has published a new book that can help put the raging debates about sports betting into a very relatable context." 

"It’s not often, or ever, you see a Nobel Laureate writing about his ties to match-fixing. 

That is until you see Nobel Prize-winning economist Alvin E. Roth writing in his new book that he feels “a certain connection” to point-shaving. It's just for reasons that have less to do with economics or match-manipulation and more because of a shared name.

Another Alvin Roth, nicknamed "Fats," was banned from the NBA because of a college basketball point-shaving scandal that came to light in the early 1950s.

“He (Fats) was also sentenced to jail, but a judge permitted him to join the army instead,” Roth writes in his recently released book “Moral Economics: From Prostitution to Organ Sales, What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work.”   

...

Roth spoke to Covers over the phone recently about his book and his framework for approaching “repugnant transactions,” which, yes, can include sports betting. 

“Remember that when I say something is repugnant, I don't mean that I don't like it or that you shouldn't like it,” Roth said. “I mean that some people don't like it, and I think that gambling falls squarely into that category. Lots of people like to gamble, and lots of people, other people, think they shouldn't be allowed to, so it's a repugnant transaction, and there have been laws of all sorts allowing or banning it. And we've gone back and forth with the United States on lotteries, and more recently on sports betting.”  

...

“I fear that online gambling will have much to teach us about addiction,” Roth writes.  

...

Again, gambling is not the focus of Roth’s work. Nor are prediction markets, which critics often describe as a new form of gambling. Yet Roth says one of the things he writes about is that it is hard to ban something in a given jurisdiction when it’s legally available and within reach in another jurisdiction.

“And, of course, the internet makes everybody a neighbor to everybody else,” Roth says. 

In other words, the fact that prediction markets have popped up offering de facto sports wagering in states that have yet to legalize sports betting is not some new phenomenon. It’s all in keeping with society’s ongoing tug-of-war with morally contested markets. You can ban, you can regulate, but somebody will probably be unhappy in the end with what you’ve done and may still seek out what you’ve forbidden or restricted.  

SSC Space, Firefly set 2028 target for first orbital launch from Sweden’s Esrange

HELSINKI — SSC Space and Firefly have set a 2028 target for the first orbital launch from Esrange, with key infrastructure and regulatory pieces falling into place. The companies announced […]

The post SSC Space, Firefly set 2028 target for first orbital launch from Sweden’s Esrange appeared first on SpaceNews.

Orbital files plans for 100,000 orbital data centers

Five-month-old startup Orbital has asked the Federal Communications Commission for permission to deploy up to 100,000 data center satellites, aiming to bring 10 gigawatts of computing power from space to meet rising artificial intelligence demand.

The post Orbital files plans for 100,000 orbital data centers appeared first on SpaceNews.

Can technology save our planet from climate hell?

By Claire Cho

Special to The Truth OC

The world is closer to a “point of no return” than previously thought. Once the estimated “point of no return” is reached, scientists believe that global warming will be unable to be stopped. It is forecasted that continued global heating will trigger a cascade of tipping points and feedback loops which would lock the planet into a rapid and unstoppable escalation of heat and climate-triggered events.

On a similarly threatening note, the “Doomsday Clock”—a clock counting down to humanity’s destruction—was recently set to 85 seconds till midnight, the closest it has ever been since its conception in 1947. The Doomsday Clock’s three primary drivers include: nuclear threats, climate change and disruptive technologies which have begun to be realized in the form of artificial intelligence.

Technology has historically represented growth, innovation, and prosperity. Launching major events of economic upturn and rising quality of life, technology has always signaled improving times. Throughout these events, the environment has frequently borne the utility cost. Yet, until recently, humanity has not been affected by damage to the environment and therefore put very little research into the possible negative side effects of technology. Now that growing climate events have begun to threaten lives and livelihoods, climate science research has surged and begun to show the growing cause for concern for humanity’s environmental impacts.

Paradoxically, many scientists have begun to posit that technology may be the only way to reverse the effects of the climate crisis. The same technologies that pushed humanity towards the brink of collapse are expected to peel us back. The concept of using technology to fix the climate crisis has become known as geoengineering: the deliberate, large-scale modification of Earth’s natural systems to counteract climate change.

Geoengineering has become one of the most controversial topics of conversation in the climate science world. Critics have accused geoengineering of “playing god” with fanatical, borderline absurd and untested technologies. Just a couple of examples include Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), Ocean Fertilization, and—get ready—space mirrors. SAI has been heavily explored in India which has recently faced rising heat-caused deaths. SAI entails the release of tiny, reflective particles such as sulfur dioxide or calcium carbonate dust into the upper atmosphere to mimic a cooling effect often caused by volcanic eruptions. Ocean fertilization involves the dumping of nutrients into the ocean to stimulate rapid blooms of carbon-absorbing phytoplankton. Then, finally, space mirrors are almost exactly as it sounds: the launching of giant, reflective mirrors or sunshades into orbit to block solar radiation.

Claire Cho

There must be a forewarning before entertaining such a radical reimagining of the natural world. As Rachel Carson once famously said in her book Silent Springs, “In nature, nothing exists alone.” While geoengineering advocates claim that consequences have been thoroughly researched, modern humanity still knows very little about the inner-workings of the biosphere and its intricate web of relationships. Brute force efforts to manipulate the natural world have historically resulted in cascading, disastrous consequences for the broader world. So to zealously advocate for under-tested technology is not just foolish, but possibly deadly.

Following four years at UC Berkeley, a university full of tech start-up hopefuls and Silicon Valley followers, I have often heard the word “inevitable” when referring to technology. Following a presentation on the negative impacts of AI, a classmate told me, “If you don’t start embracing AI, you will be left behind”.

“Inevitable” has become my least favorite word, and in my opinion, overused. We live in a humanity of free will (unless you are a follower of Determinism, then disregard). There is nothing inevitable about AI and technology, the only inevitability is the pursuit of power and profit. While it may prove to be true that technology is the only way to solve the climate crisis, there must be an emphasis on prevention as opposed to mitigation. Life on earth has existed for many millenniums and will continue to exist long after the human race is gone. Without a more timely and cognizant approach to preventative efforts, mitigation will not be enough to escape the ever-approaching climate crisis.

Claire Cho is a recent graduate from the University of California, Berkeley where she studied environmental policy and law. Following Berkeley, Claire intends to attend law school and pursue environmental law. You can follow her on Instagram here.

June 29, 2026

“To show the importance of the Slaughter Case, 90 years of precedent has been COMPLETELY AND UNEQUIVOCALLY OVERRULED, greatly increasing Presidential Power at a time when it is most needed!” President Donald J. Trump wrote this afternoon. He continued: “Today’s Historic Slaughter Decision by the Supreme Court is the Greatest Increase in Presidential Power in the last 100 years. Such a Monumental Ruling at such an important time!”

Political theorist Jacob T. Levy posted in response: “No, see, ‘overruled 90 years of precedent in order to expand presidential power’ is the way *critics* describe it. *Your* side says: resisting intrusion into core executive functions, protecting the sanctity of the separation of powers, and acknowledging that the precedent has been whittled away.”

But Greg Sargent of The New Republic countered that “Trump constantly and explicitly holds up his naked corruption *as a badge of honor* that his supporters are supposed to thrill to (and see benefit for themselves in). He thinks corruption is the highest form of winning.”

The case of Slaughter v. Trump began in March 2025, when Trump fired the last remaining Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, Rebecca Slaughter. Since 1935 the Supreme Court has said the president does not have the power to fire members of independent agencies created by Congress except for “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office.”

Although Trump himself initially appointed Slaughter, he claimed he fired her because her continued service on the independent commission was “inconsistent with [the] Administration’s priorities” and that he had the right to do so under the authority granted to him by Article II of the Constitution despite the fact Congress set up the position in such a way that it would be shielded from presidential politics.

This argument is an attempt to establish the idea of the “unitary executive,” a theory the right wing has pushed since the 1980s, when it began to distrust the will of voters as they expressed it through Congress and thus tried to find ways to assert the power of the president and reduce the power of Congress.

The theory of the unitary executive says that since the president is the head of one of the three independent branches of government—those are the legislative branch, the executive branch, and the judicial branch—he has sole authority over the executive branch and cannot be reined in by the other two branches. Trump has leaned into this idea since 2019, when he told attendees at the Turning Point USA Teen Student Action Summit being held in Washington, D.C., “I have an Article II, where I have…the right to do whatever I want as president.”

The Supreme Court’s 2024 Donald J. Trump v. United States decision supported Trump’s reading of the powers of the president when it took the radical position that a president could not be prosecuted for crimes committed in the course of official presidential duties. In his second term, Trump has worked to fit his power grabs within the contours of that decision. Now the Supreme Court appears primed to hand him another win by finding the president has complete control over the officers in the executive branch, including the independent agencies established by Congress but which Congress has been placing in the executive branch since the administration of President George Washington.

Representing the government, Solicitor General John Sauer told the court that the president must be able to remove officials in the agencies because “the President must have the power to control and…the one who has the power to remove is the one who…is the person that they have to fear and obey.”

In hearings on the case last December, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson suggested that this political destruction of the independent agencies Congress had established to provide nonpartisan expertise on issues like how to regulate pollutants would hurt the country. “[H]aving a president come in and fire all the scientists, and the doctors, and the economists and the PhDs, and replacing them with loyalists and people who don’t know anything is actually not in the best interest of the citizens of the United States,” she said.

Today, in a 6–3 vote, the Supreme Court decided the case in Trump’s favor. Now, even if the American people elect members of Congress who create agencies to protect our interests, the president can gut them and turn them to his own purposes.

Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented. They noted that throughout our history, both Congress and the president have agreed that some of government’s functions should operate outside of party politics. Financial management, workplace safety, consumer safety, addressing environmental hazards, and managing nuclear energy, for example, should not depend “on who is in office—much less on who is disfavored or owed a favor by those in office—but also on judgment, expertise, and the public good.”

“Since the founding, Congress has created agencies that in various ways have embodied this goal of independence. Over the last 140 years especially, the political branches have done so by establishing agencies like the Federal Trade Commission (FTC): bipartisan, multimember bodies with “for-cause” removal protections. This structure allows the agencies to address complex problems while enjoying some independence from Presidential removal and thus absolute partisan control.”

“Today,” though, they write, “this Court undoes centuries of political practice and concludes that all three branches of Government have been acting in open defiance of the Constitution all this time. Its conclusion is wrong…. [T]he Court gives the President a power unknown even to the English Crown against which the Founders revolted, elevating him above his once-coequal branches by transforming a duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed into a license to act in defiance of those very laws.”

Senator Andy Kim (D-NJ) explains: “The FTC, or the Federal Trade Commission, is an independent government agency that is supposed to protect you, the American consumer. They fight fraud, ensure businesses are making accurate claims in their advertising, and enforce data privacy and security. The independence of the agency ensures that the FTC doesn’t make decisions at a whim of any one president or political party, but instead acts in your best interest. For example, the FTC put more money back into the pockets of Americans by banning junk fees for short-term lodging and live event activity.”

Kim notes that we’ve seen Trump “target, fire, prosecute civil servants, perceived as political enemies. We’ve seen him install members of his inner circle, including his own family, campaign donors, and people with personal loyalties to him. And we’ve seen him attack federal agencies and federal employees, gutting critical programs and firing the people who run them.”

With the Supreme Court’s decision, Trump now has “unchecked power to remove any head of any independent agency. Get the agencies to bend to his will, to play by his rules.”

As legal analyst Barb McQuade notes, Trump’s new powers will let him fire commissioners at agencies including the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Consumer Product Safety Board, the Federal Communications Commission, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Nuclear Safety Board. Federal employees have been free from political interference for 150 years, but now, she writes,“The spoils system is back, baby!”

The court’s decision in Trump v. Slaughter gives Trump power he clearly has no inclination to give up. When asked today if he would sign the popular bipartisan housing bill that passed Congress with overwhelming support, Trump said he hadn’t decided and called the bill “a yawn.” He wants Congress to pass the voter ID law that will essentially guarantee that voters cannot turn Republicans out of office, making the United States a one-party state in which Congress simply rubber-stamps the actions of the president. It appears he is willing to hold the housing bill hostage until he gets it.

“To me,” he said, “compared to the Save America Act, just about everything is a big yawn.”

Notes:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/23/trump-falsely-tells-auditorium-full-teens-constitution-gives-him-right-do-whatever-i-want/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3e073pglvzo

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/fight-over-trumps-power-fire-ftc-member-heads-us-supreme-court-2025-12-08/

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-332_qn12.pdf

https://www.c-span.org/program/public-affairs-event/trump-v-slaughter-oral-argument/669488

Trumpstruth.org:

statuses/39620

statuses/39618

Bluesky:

jacobtlevy.bsky.social/post/3mph6n2467s2q

gregsargent.bsky.social/post/3mphaskezfk2v

kim.senate.gov/post/3mpgsjce63k2k

barbmcquade.bsky.social/post/3mpgwai6fnk2j

barbmcquade.bsky.social/post/3mpgw4e4tus2j

atrupar.com/post/3mphaibok3g2g

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A New Political Language

Think tank games out how to respond to disaster scenarios in space warfare

Imagine this: The US military begins tracking a mysterious spacecraft maneuvering near one of the Space Force's missile-warning satellites more than 22,000 miles over the equator.

This US satellite cost several billion dollars to build and launch. It's one of a handful of sentinels keeping constant watch for ballistic missile launches that might threaten the US homeland or US military bases overseas. Suddenly, this missile warning satellite goes dark. Ground controllers at a military base just outside of Denver scramble to figure out what went wrong.

There are two possibilities. Perhaps the mystery spacecraft lurking nearby somehow disabled or destroyed it, or as sometimes happens in the unforgiving environment of space, something important broke on the satellite, rendering it unresponsive. If the former, was it an intentional attack or an accident? Who carried it out and why? If the latter, how might controllers reactivate the satellite?

Read full article

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Factoring RSA Keys with Many Zeros

Interesting research on a new class of weak RSA keys: keys with lots of zeros. It turns out that these keys are out in the wild.

The badkeys project is an open-source service that checks public keys for known vulnerabilities. While developing this tool, Hanno collected a massive number of real-world keys from public sources, including Certificate Transparency logs, internet-wide TLS and SSH scans, PGP keys, and many others. By searching this dataset for unexpectedly sparse RSA moduli, we uncovered a large number of keys in the wild with the patterns in Figure 1.

Both patterns include several regularly spaced blocks of all zeros interleaved with seemingly random data. Pattern 1 appears in CT logs for certificates issued to several large organizations, including Yahoo and Verizon, and on some devices running NetApp software. Fortunately, these certificates have already expired, but we still shared our findings with these companies. We wanted to learn more about which product could be responsible for generating these keys, but we did not hear back. Pattern 2 appears on SSH hosts running the CompleteFTP software from EnterpriseDT. The underlying vulnerability affects RSA keys generated using versions 10.0.0­12.0.0 (Dec 2016­Mar 2019) and DSA keys generated with v10.0.0­23.0.4 (Dec 2016­Dec 2023).

These vulnerabilities affect a small minority of hosts on the internet, but the more interesting takeaway is that independent cryptographic implementations failed in similar ways. More implementations may include the same bugs, and so it’s worth tailoring cryptanalytic algorithms for this particular type of failure.

The article doesn’t speculate, but I will. This could be a deliberately designed backdoor, of the sort I wrote about back in 2013. I could imagine some government agency figuring out how to break this class of RSA keys, and then convincing different providers to hand them out to users.

Illegible benefits

Futuristic architectural illustration of green skyscrapers with trees on terraces in a misty cityscape.

The costs of transformative innovations are immediately clear: it’s the longterm gains that are hardest to understand

- by Carlo Cordasco

Read on Aeon

Rocket Lab to acquire Iridium

Rocket Lab is acquiring satellite telecommunications company Iridium for $8 billion as part of its effort to become an end-to-end space company.

The post Rocket Lab to acquire Iridium appeared first on SpaceNews.

SatVu restarts commercial operations with HotSat-2

British thermal imaging startup SatVu announced the start of commercial services June 29 for HotSat-2, marking a return to revenue-generating operations after its debut satellite failed in low Earth orbit in 2023.

The post SatVu restarts commercial operations with HotSat-2 appeared first on SpaceNews.

What should I ask Daron Acemoglu?

Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him.  Obviously Acemoglu has published plenty, but likely this chat will focus on his recent writings and pronouncements on AI, and most of all his forthcoming book What Happened to Liberal Democracy? Remaking a Politics of Shared Prosperity.  So what should I ask him?

The post What should I ask Daron Acemoglu? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Study argues bigger launch vehicles may not always be better

New Glenn 9x4

As SpaceX and others pursue the development of very large launch vehicles, a new study suggests that there may be such a thing as a rocket that is too large.

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ESA to seek lunar mapping capability for Argonaut lander

An illustration of ESA's Argonaut lunar lander. Credit: ESA - P. Carril

MILAN — The European Space Agency will rely on external lunar topographic data during the design phase of its Argonaut lunar lander, and possibly for its first mission, while working […]

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Beck: Iridium acquisition the “logical next step” for Rocket Lab

Beck

Rocket Lab’s chief executive says the company’s acquisition of Iridium was the “logical next step” in his ambitions to tap into the lucrative space services market.

The post Beck: Iridium acquisition the “logical next step” for Rocket Lab appeared first on SpaceNews.

Discovering the Universe – Astrophysics Flagship Space Observatories Offer Insights to Key Questions

From observing distant galaxies to exploring exoplanets and their atmospheres, BAE Systems enables cutting-edge technology to expand our knowledge of the universe. As a major partner in each of NASA’s […]

The post Discovering the Universe – Astrophysics Flagship Space Observatories Offer Insights to Key Questions appeared first on SpaceNews.

Quantum computing is about to become a national security problem in orbit

Illustration of the Quantum Key Distribution Satellite, which will provide secure cryptographic key delivery services to customers on the ground. Credit: ESA

Quantum computing is advancing fast, and nations are racing to field the first machines powerful enough to break modern encryption. This race has direct consequences for the commercial space industry, […]

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Count the number of Safari tabs

Tiniest TIL, using AppleScript to count the number of open browser tabs in Safari:

osascript -e 'tell application "Safari" to count tabs of every window'

I ran it in a terminal window and got back 370.

Tags: safari, til, applescript

Ornith-1.0: Self-Scaffolding LLMs for Agentic Coding

Ornith-1.0: Self-Scaffolding LLMs for Agentic Coding

This is an interesting new open weights (MIT licensed) model, the first model release from DeepReinforce.

[...] with variants including 9B Dense, 31B Dense, 35B MoE, and 397B MoE. Built on top of pretrained Gemma 4 and Qwen 3.5, it achieves state-of-the-art performance among open-source models of comparable size on coding benchmarks.

As far as I can tell the licenses of those underlying models is compatible with being used in this way - Gemma 4 is Apache 2.0 licensed (and not bound by the janky additional Gemma Terms of Use that afflicted the previous Gemma models) and Qwen 3.5 is Apache 2.0 licensed as well.

I've been running the model using LM Studio and the ornith-1.0-35b-Q4_K_M.gguf (20GB) GGUF, hooked up to Pi. Initial impressions are very good - it seems to be able to run the agent harness over many tool calls in a proficient way.

Here's a terminal session where I asked it to "find the code that decodes the actor cookie" and then "find the code that opens the insert dialog when thebutton is clicked" against a Datasette checkout, which it handled with ease.

I also had it draw this pelican, which came out at 103 tokens/second:

Cartoon illustration of a white pelican (albeit slightly mangled) with a large orange beak riding a red bicycle across green hills. The scene has a blue sky with a yellow sun and three white clouds, and small grass tufts dot the foreground.

It's a little bit mangled but the pelican is clearly a pelican.

I couldn't find much information about DeepReinforce themselves. The earliest paper I could find from the was CUDA-L1: Improving CUDA Optimization via Contrastive Reinforcement Learning from June 2025.

Tags: ai, generative-ai, local-llms, llms, qwen, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, gemma, llm-release, lm-studio

The Full Tesla Semi Factory Tour

A couple of months ago, we went to Nevada and invaded the Tesla Semi factory. It was early days in the factory’s march toward full production. We made a beautiful video about the experience, and it w…

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Buckminster Fuller Did Not Invent the "Geodesic Dome"

Sorry, Bucky fans, but hear me out. This is one of the only places where you’re likely to hear the true but sad extent of (some of) Fuller’s misrepresentations and flawed designs. It seems that 99% of what you read about him is positive.

The Zeiss dome, 1922, Jena , Germany

I was a fan for years. I believed what he said about geodesic domes and in fact, spent five years building them and published the seminal book on the subject, Domebook 2 (which sold 160,000 copies). After 5 years of dome building, I realized they didn’t work as homes and took Domebook 2 out of print.

See my post:

Me and my wife Sarah, front row at a Fuller seminar at Esalen in 1967

Bucky took out a patent for what he called “geodesic domes” in 1955. The domes were based on a subdivided icosahedron, the most complex of the five Platonic solids.

I did some investigative journalism in 1972 in writing the lead article for what we called Domebook 3, a subdivision of our 1973 book Shelter.

It turned out that a German dome, hailed as “The Wonder of Jena,” was built in 1922 on the roof of the Carl Zeiss optical works in Jena, Germany. It was of icosahedral design.

The icosahedron, with 20 edges and 12 vertices

Zeiss had invented a planetarium projector with an icosahedral pattern of 31 lenses, meant to project the stars and planets on the interior of a dome. The dome was built with the same icosahedral geometry as the projector.

The multi-lens Zeiss planetarium projector
Like a spider web

https://spectrum.ieee.org/planetarium-history

It’s a long story, which you can see on pp. 110-119 of Shelter. It includes my correspondence with scientists at the Zeiss Works, who wrote ”…at that time it was the principle of our firm, that such basic findings should be made available to the whole scientific world, so it may well be that nothing was patented in Germany.”

Dome nuts (as I once was): See Refried Domes, my reassessment of polyhedral home design. Just sayin…

Once I learned of this scam of Fuller’s, I started re-assessing his more well-known designs. A few are listed below.

Wisdom comes by disillusionment.

-George Santayana


Live From California with Lloyd Kahn is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The Dymaxion Car, 1933

A poorly-desighed rip-off of the 1913 Alfa Romeo Castagna Aerodinamica, below.

1913 Alfa Romeo Castagna Aerodinamica. Better in every aspect than Fuller’s poorly-engineered, dangerous car, below. I love this design!

Note: See the Zoox, Amazon’s new self-driving vehicles (which are now operating in San Francisco) for similarities to the above, 113 years later!

Fuller’s Dymaxion Car,, 1933 (looking like a bloated version of the Alfa Romeo). Three were made. You don’t need to be an engineer to see how poorly balanced this vehicle is.

On October 27, 1933, one of the Dymaxion cars rolled over, killing the driver and seriously injuring two passengers. A year or so later, Fuller crashed one of these with his daughter Alexandra aboard.

The Tensegrity Mast

Fuller did not invent the tensegrity sphere nor the tensegrity mast, both of which he claimed credit for. They were invented by a student of his at Black Mountain College, artist Kenneth Snelson.”

I visited Snelson in his New York studio in the early 70s and he confirmed that Fuller had misrepresented his designs as his own.

What Fuller did do here was clever though, coining the term “tensegrity” from “tension” and “structural integrity.”

Needle tower, 65 feet tall sculpture by Kenneth Snelson

The Montreal Expo Dome, 1967

I was driving across Canada in 1967, delivering a school bus (that had a governor allowing it to go only 55 mph) from Toronto to Nova Scotia, where I was heading to help Stewart Brand build the foundation for a new home.

I had my son Peter, 12 years old, with me and we stopped in at the Expo. I’d seen pictures of the dome, and it looked spectacular.

Surprise! It was a pretty total disaster. The shades never worked and the only reason it wasn’t boiling hot inside was a 650 hp diesel generator in the basement providing air conditioning — the irony of a building hailed as “environmental” burning huge quantities of oil to compensate for faulty design.

It leaked. I took pictures of algae growing around the base.

And about the final fire that destroyed it in 1976:

“…one of architecture’s most dramatic disasters — and it exposed a critical design flaw baked into the structure from the start."

“The original dome was sheathed in a geometric tessellation of clear acrylic panels fitted over the steel trusses, giving it the appearance of a giant glittering jewel. Acrylic (polymethyl methacrylate) is notoriously flammable — it ignites readily, burns hot, and spreads flame rapidly across connected surfaces. On a structure the size of a 20-story sphere, a single ignition point from a welding torch essentially became a fuse for the entire skin. The interconnected panel geometry, while visually spectacular, meant there was no firebreak anywhere across the vast surface.”

“…acrylic is a petroleum-derived plastic whose combustion released considerable toxic smoke over Île Sainte-Hélène.”

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/give-me-any-info-on-fire-destr-3IPsUosgR3.fhATiaqwgTQ

Lastly, Fuller’s idea for a dome over NYC. Are you kidding? Keeping in all the smog and exhaust, keeping out rain and snow and wind?

“Spaceship earth?” Don’t get me started!

So there you have it. I just felt these flaws had to be pointed out in view of Fuller’s canonization.

Thanks for reading Live From California with Lloyd Kahn! This post is public so feel free to share it.

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The Court Sides With Dictatorship — and Chaos

For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube.

Note: It’s Lisa Cook, not Lisa Graves. Talking to Lisa Graves shortly.

Earlier today, the Supreme Court declared war on U.S. democracy. It also declared war, basically, on modern society, on everything it takes to function in the 21st century. And I’m not sure that people understand that yet.

Hi, Paul Krugman with a quick video update. I’ll have more on this tomorrow.

Really shocking decisions handed down by the Supreme Court. There were a couple that were not awful. Lisa Cook gets to stay at the Federal Reserve, although that in itself is a huge contradiction to the important stuff that the court did. I mean, Lisa is important and the Fed is important, but much more important is Humphrey’s Executor, which is the generations-long precedent that says that when Congress creates an independent agency, it is independent. It’s able to make decisions.

Of course, the president has some role. Typically, the president can choose the agency’s head subject to congressional approval, but the president can’t just go and fire officials that he doesn’t like for whatever reason or for no reason, because the agencies that operate the U.S. government and basically run our society are supposed to be professional. They’re supposed to be following their legal mandate. They’re not supposed to be personal tools of a dictator in the White House.

Well, the court just scrapped that. Now, lawyers, people who are legal experts, can do a better job of explaining just what went down. But what I think is important to understand is not only does this give essentially dictatorial powers to the occupant of the White House, but it also makes it extremely difficult for the economy to function. It makes it extremely difficult for society to function.

We live in a complicated world, a world of technology, where there are all kinds of spillovers, all kinds of ways in which it’s important that there be well-established ground rules. If you’re a business, take the example of medicines and foodstuffs, where we have an FDA, Federal Drug Administration, that is charged with ensuring that products that people consume are safe. We do that for very good reason. We know that not just that that there have been examples, historically, of products that were foods, medicines that were not at all safe, but also that people want some assurance.

The fact that something has been FDA approved is a bit of a warranty, that it might turn out to be very harmful, but probably not. Businesses that want to invest in developing stuff need to know that there are some ground rules that determine what they can and cannot sell.

Now imagine that all these decisions are made by political appointees who are loyalists to the president, who basically do whatever the president wants, whatever the people around the president want.

Do you want to invest in something where you have absolutely no idea what the ground rules will be, whether it will be approved or not? Do you want to invest in a whole business line when, for all you know, the White House will abruptly decide that your product isn’t safe and that a competitor’s product is, based on spurious grounds?

And what would cause those decisions to happen? Well, how about the fact that some businesses are better at the business of bribing the president and his family than others. And if you think that this is outlandish — you know, a few years ago you might have said this was outlandish, things like that wouldn’t really happen — well, as we speak, these things are happening all the time.

So you are setting up a situation in which, you know, it’s a little bit like traffic laws. Traffic laws, yeah, they can be annoying, but aren’t we all kind of glad that there are in fact rules about when you can turn and when you can go through an intersection? In order to function, in order to drive your car around you need to have a set of stable traffic rules, not a situation in which a police officer can decide you broke the law and the other guy did not because I say what the law is. And especially not where the police officer does that based upon who’s been paying him off or who he expects to be paid off.

The real world is far more complex than traffic rules but we need those rules and we need some stability and those rules cannot be specified with every letter, every punctuation mark set by Congress. The world is too complicated and changes too much. You need to have standing ethos, standing doctrine at the agencies that make modern life possible.

Now all of that is gone.

Now, it just adds to it that all of this is being done to empower a president who is the worst possible person for this job. This is not somebody you want supervising anything, everything that Trump touches turns to crud because he doesn’t care and he doesn’t actually understand or recognize that there’s such a thing as expertise as knowing what you’re doing.

So this would be terrible even if we had a temporarily competent administration. But now you’re doing all of this, the Supreme Court is doing all of this to empower the guy who brought you the Reflecting Pool, who brought you the Iran war. Utter nightmare.

Now, what will happen, hopefully, we emerge at the other end having fended off dictatorship. Then, I mean, as everybody knows, this Supreme Court is not actually empowering the presidency. It is empowering this president. And as soon as there’s a Democrat in the White House, suddenly there will be all kinds of restrictions on what that person can do.

Well, this cannot go on. This is a clear argument that says we have to one way or another disempower the Supreme Court. I don’t know enough to tell you what is the best route to do that but court packing or something else is going to have to happen. Because this has been the clearest signal yet that we have six people (there are three who are not part of it, but we have six people) who are fundamentally hostile to democracy, fundamentally hostile to the modern world and determined to put the catastrophically bad leader that we currently have sitting in the White House in charge of everything, which is a nightmare scenario on every level.

Take care, I guess.

The Humbling of the Once Almighty Dollar

Renminbi - Wikipedia

Donald Trump’s stunning failure in Iran has weakened America on many fronts. The world now perceives us as neither a reliable ally nor an invincible enemy, with an extortionately expensive military that is losing its best and brightest to Pete Hegseth’s prejudice and incompetence. We are now four months into a war that was supposed to last a couple of weeks.There is no end in sight as strikes and counter-strikes continue despite Trump’s farcical proclamations of American victory and Iranian surrender. Sixteen months into his presidency, Trump has squandered all of America’s credibility with the rest of the world.

So let me add one more item to the tally of destruction: The supremacy of the dollar, the pre-eminent tool in America’s toolbox of global financial power, has been seriously damaged by the rise of alternative payment systems – a rise that was greatly hastened by the Iran war.

Let me be clear that I don’t mean that the dollar is close to losing its dominant role in global business. And I am definitely not claiming that the dollar’s weakened status will make the United States substantially poorer.

Instead, what I am talking about is the loss of a non-military tool of coercion — the power to punish that the dominant role of the dollar in international financial transactions gave the United States. That power is now greatly diminished because Trump’s Iran war demonstrated to other nations that they can bypass the dollar-centered world payments system — largely thanks to China.

Let me provide context by talking about the dollar’s global role.

The dollar’s importance in international financial transactions far outweighs the U.S. economy’s global importance. America is by no means a dominant force in world trade or world GDP. There are, in fact, three roughly comparable-sized economic superpowers in today’s world: China, the United States, and the European Union. However, the U.S. dollar does play a dominant role in world finance. There are multiple aspects to this role, which I discussed at length in April. But one number makes the point: Last year 89 percent of foreign exchange transactions — transactions in which one nation’s currency is exchanged for another — involved U.S. dollars.

How is this possible, when the U.S. share of world exports is only around 10 percent? The answer is that the dollar is the world’s “vehicle currency” — the currency businesses use to make transits between other currencies. A bank that wants to exchange, say, Indian rupees for British pounds generally won’t try to find a counterparty who wants to make the reverse trade. It will, instead, sell rupees for dollars and then use the dollars to buy pounds.

Why does everyone use dollars? Because so many other people and businesses use dollars, which makes markets in dollars far more liquid and efficient than markets in any other currency. As a classic old paper by Charles Kindleberger pointed out, the dollar’s role as a global currency is similar to the role of English as a global business language: Everyone speaks English because everyone else does. When people warn that the dollar is at imminent risk of losing its status to, say, the Chinese yuan, my response is to ask how long they think it will be before businesspeople around the world begin making deals in Mandarin.

Furthermore, the economic advantage to the U.S. of owning the premier global currency — our “exorbitant privilege,” a term coined by Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in the 1960s — is not, despite what one sometimes hears, essential to U.S. prosperity. Our overall economic strength rests not on the role of the dollar but on our productivity and our leadership in science and technology. (The Trump administration is doing its best to destroy the latter, but that’s another story.)

What dollar dominance does do, however, is give America a powerful economic weapon against other nations. Transactions that involve dollar payments normally require transferring money between U.S. banks — which means that they are visible to and can be blocked by U.S. authorities. In the words of Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, authors of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy, the dollar’s role gives the U.S. government a “panopticon” — it can see everything — and a “chokepoint” — it can cut nations off from the world economy, a power it demonstrated most notably by imposing sanctions on Iran over the years. These sanctions played a key role in getting Iran to sign President Obama’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in which Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in return for a relaxation of sanctions.

Donald Trump ripped up the JCPOA, which he derided as a terrible deal. Now the Iranian regime is in a much stronger position than it was under the JCPOA. Yet we should also recognize that while the U.S. has suffered a military failure, it has also suffered a financial power failure. China has used the war to strengthen an alternative global payments system that bypasses the dollar — and hence allows governments that are at odds with America to evade both U.S. surveillance and U.S. sanctions.

As the Wall Street Journal recently explained, Iran was able to continue selling oil (until the U.S. temporarily imposed a military blockade) and buying essential imports, despite U.S. financial sanctions, by taking payment in yuan and using those yuan to buy Chinese goods. Ships that paid Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz also paid in yuan (or in cryptocurrency, whose only real use case remains criminal activity.) The details are complicated, but using yuan essentially allows those designated by the U.S. government as rogue actors to fly under our financial radar.

It’s true that Iran and Russia had significantly increased their yuan-based transactions before the war began. But the war offered an object lesson in the usefulness of the yuan as an alternative currency. Other nations, including the United Arab Emirates, are now considering accepting payment in yuan. And the war has also given a boost to China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), an alternative to SWIFT, the Belgium-based but effectively U.S.-controlled system that still settles the great bulk of international transactions.

I don’t want to overstate the case here. The dollar’s role as the dominant currency for ordinary business is not under threat. A new article in Foreign Policy by Agathe Demarais is titled “China’s de-dollarization drive has hit a wall.” It points out that overall use both of CIPS and of yuan remain quite modest compared with the SWIFT/dollar system. Doing business in dollars remains easier and cheaper than using any other currency, and will remain so unless U.S. policy becomes even more self-destructive.

Yet something important has happened. The Iran debacle has demonstrated that using dollars and retaining access to the U.S. banking system, while convenient, aren’t necessary. Iran’s ability to withstand American pressure has demonstrated that U.S. sanctions are a lot less effective than in the past given that rogue actors can use the yuan and CIPS as a work-around. And as the Gulf States’ actions show, even countries that are U.S. allies are now considering signing onto the Chinese payment system.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, recent events — not just the failed war on Iran but the limited effects of Trump’s tariffs and, in a different way, Ukraine’s survival without U.S. aid — have shown that America is now an inessential nation. Trump thought that throwing America’s weight around would show the world how powerful he is. Instead, he made us weaker and the world knows it.

MUSICAL CODA

Working for the Yankee dollar? Not so much, now.

HTML table extractor

Tool: HTML table extractor

Yet another in my growing collection of paste-conversion tools. This one accepts pasted rich text from browsers (with embedded HTML tables) and converts every detected table into HTML, Markdown, CSV, TSV, or JSON.

Try it out by selecting everything on the Wikipedia List of cities and towns in the San Francisco Bay Area page and pasting it directly into the tool:

Screenshot of a web interface for converting table data between formats. A row of tabs labeled HTML, Markdown, CSV, TSV, and JSON sits below the bottom edge of a styled data table, with the TSV tab currently selected. The TSV tab displays the table's contents as tab-separated plain text in a monospaced font inside a bordered panel, with a "Copy" button in the upper right of that panel.

On a similar note, I recently rebuilt my Rich text to markdown tool to add support for tables and generally improve the UI.

Update: It turns out Wikipedia has an open CORS API for retrieving the full rendered HTML content of any page - demo here - so I had Codex add the ability to search Wikipedia for a page and then automatically import and display any tables from that page.

Tags: html, tools, wikipedia, cors

Prediction markets paragraphs to ponder

The oracle is an elaborate Web 3.0 contraption that combines cryptocurrency, voting and game theory in its goal to produce fair judgments. It’s billed by its creators, a company based in Manhattan called Risk Labs, as a “decentralized truth machine.”

But for all its brainiac complexity, the oracle has proved exploitable. Dozens of livid bettors claim the system has been gamed, the handiwork of a budding tech entrepreneur named Lancelot Chardonnet (his name at birth, he says). A look at the Donk debate, which unfolded over nine rancorous days, illustrates how he did it, and the messy, fractious challenge of divining something as nuanced as truth.

When the Bucharest video was first broadcast on April 11, nobody heard “Donk,” and this bet seemed destined to be won by those who bet “no.” Then someone noticed that the caster, who through sheer phonetic coincidence is known as Dinko, had botched “don’t.”

Dinko might have known about the Donk bet, so it’s at least possible that he said the fateful syllable on purpose. It’s even possible he placed money on the outcome. He might have made what linguistics fans would call a voiceless velar stop slip.

Here is more from the NYT.

The post Prediction markets paragraphs to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Why is the Cigar Galaxy billowing red smoke? Why is the Cigar Galaxy billowing red smoke?


Jackson Dahl podcasts with me and Nabeel on aesthetics

Filmed at home, this ran about two hours, and yes that is Nabeel Qureshi, with a cameo from Spinoza toward the very end.  From Jackson:

Links

From the episode summary:

Tyler and Nabeel are good friends, and given how prolific Tyler is, I decided to use Nabeel as an entry point and interview them together. We discuss sacred commitments, AI acceleration, mentorship, friendship, and more, but I focused the majority of the conversation on art and aesthetics. Tyler and Nabeel are unlikely aesthetes given their day jobs, but in fact take art deeply seriously. They have a shared love for and similar tastes in art, music, and film, in particular. We discuss strange and beautiful art, aesthetic stagnation, and a wide range of favorites: The Beatles, Mozart, Mondrian, Springsteen, Lana Del Rey, Kanye West, Cassavetes, The Sopranos, Apichatpong Weerasethakul, and more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=wC78q_BeD27XDnLN&v=qPHV-BezoIc&feature=youtu.be

Excerpt:

Tyler: (18:31) I think I’m very mundane in many ways. When Marc Andreessen had that famous tweet about not being too introspective, I know he got slammed for that, but I sympathize with that in many ways. I have my work. I focus on it. I want to go see places I haven’t seen before. That really drives me. I feel pretty well motivated. I do think all kinds of deep thoughts, but to me those deep thoughts feel more superficial than my so-called superficial urges to go around doing things. And I’m fine with that.

Jackson: (23:25) Do you experience art primarily by thinking or by feeling?

Tyler: (23:29) I don’t even know what those words mean. I experience it by looking at it. I don’t think I have very deep emotional responses. I think it’s pleasure and I feel I learn a lot from it. When I go out and look at other works of art or just the world, I see a lot more than people who don’t live with art. I don’t think I feel that much. I’ve never cried in front of a painting. When I read these accounts of someone seeing a Madonna and weeping, it makes no sense to me. It’s like people who do sports gambling. Why do you do that? There are positive-sum gambles for you. Here are a few.

There is much more of interest, self-recommending!

The post Jackson Dahl podcasts with me and Nabeel on aesthetics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Related Stories

 

In a bold move, Rocket Lab acquires Iridium Communications

Rocket Lab announced on Monday that it is acquiring the satellite communications company Iridium. The deal, made for cash and shares of Rocket Lab stock, values Iridium at about $8 billion.

The deal pairs the launch company, founded and led by Peter Beck, with a decades-old profitable satellite company whose network of 80 satellites in low-Earth orbit provides telecommunications services.

"We believe this will be one of the most transformative deals in the space industry," Beck said in a short promotional video announcing the deal. "It's the ultimate combination for growth."

Read full article

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Monday 29 June 1663

Up betimes and to my office, and by and by to the Temple, and there appointed to meet in the evening about my business, and thence I walked home, and up and down the streets is cried mightily the great victory got by the Portugalls against the Spaniards, where 10,000 slain, 3 or 4,000 taken prisoners, with all the artillery, baggage, money, &c., and Don John of Austria forced to flee with a man or two with him, which is very great news.

Thence home and at my office all the morning, and then by water to St. James’s, but no meeting to-day being holy day, but met Mr. Creed in the Park, and after a walk or two, discoursing his business, took leave of him in Westminster Hall, whither we walked, and then came again to the Hall and fell to talk with Mrs. Lane, and after great talk that she never went abroad with any man as she used heretofore to do, I with one word got her to go with me and to meet me at the further Rhenish wine-house, where I did give her a Lobster and do so touse her and feel her all over, making her believe how fair and good a skin she has, and indeed she has a very white thigh and leg, but monstrous fat. When weary I did give over and somebody, having seen some of our dalliance, called aloud in the street, “Sir! why do you kiss the gentlewoman so?” and flung a stone at the window, which vexed me, but I believe they could not see my touzing her, and so we broke up and I went out the back way, without being observed I think, and so she towards the Hall and I to White Hall, where taking water I to the Temple with my cozen Roger and Mr. Goldsborough to Gray’s Inn to his counsel, one Mr. Rawworth, a very fine man, where it being the question whether I as executor should give a warrant to Goldsborough in my reconveying her estate back again, the mortgage being performed against all acts of the testator, but only my own, my cozen said he never heard it asked before; and the other that it was always asked, and he never heard it denied, or scrupled before, so great a distance was there in their opinions, enough to make a man forswear ever having to do with the law; so they agreed to refer it to Serjeant Maynard. So we broke up, and I by water home from the Temple, and there to Sir W. Batten and eat with him, he and his lady and Sir J. Minnes having been below to-day upon the East India men that are come in, but never tell me so, but that they have been at Woolwich and Deptford, and done great deal of business. God help them. So home and up to my lute long, and then, after a little Latin chapter with Will, to bed. But I have used of late, since my wife went, to make a bad use of my fancy with whatever woman I have a mind to, which I am ashamed of, and shall endeavour to do so no more. So to sleep.

Read the annotations

Viking Mission Resources

Viking Mission Resources

Below are a variety of materials relating to the Viking 1 and 2 missions. Please use the menu at right to jump directly to the section you seek.

Viking Images of Mars

Scroll through to see some of the incredible imagery from the Viking landers and orbiters at Mars. Click on the “See More” link to view the image, read more about it, and download.

Images of the Viking Spacecraft

Scroll through to see some of the photos, artist’s concepts, models, and other images of the Viking landers and orbiters. Click on the “See More” link to view the whole image, read more about it, and download originals.

Viking and Mars Downloadables

Scroll through for posters, graphics, activities, 3D files, and other downloadables from the Viking mission and Mars.

Art from Viking’s 40th Anniversary

Scroll through to see artwork created for the 40th anniversary of the Viking mission landing.

The post Viking Mission Resources appeared first on NASA Science.

A collection of images, videos, activities, and other downloadable resources about NASA's Viking 1 and 2 missions to Mars.

Links 6/29/26

Links for you. Science:

Updated COVID vaccines cut risk of hospital care, heart complications, new data reveal
CDC’s chief blocked a covid vaccine study. Now it’s in a top medical journal.
The Ebola Outbreak’s Central Mystery: Where Did This Virus Come From?
Be Not Afraid. Bats Are Amazing
U.S. provides experimental Ebola treatment for outbreak in Congo, bringing trials closer
New walking shark discovered in Papua New Guinea
Trump Administration Moves to Preserve Cells and DNA of Imperiled Species. The government is teaming up with Colossal Biosciences, a private company that claims to have revived extinct dire wolves, to store samples from at-risk animals and plants.

Other:

Dems Must Talk Seriously About Supreme Court Expansion
How The OMB Rule Will Hurt You And Your Town
In Search Of A Shared Theory Of Power
Trump’s Peeling Green Gift to America
Cargo Culture
Trump’s Reflecting Pool fiasco is no longer just a laughing matter
Russell Vought’s Latest Plan to Gut the Government Should Terrify You
What comes next after D.C.’s historic primary?
The politicization of federal grant funding will hurt Arizona
Senator Demands Trump Personally Pay Taxpayers Back For Reflecting Pool Mess: “This was not a result of vandalism, but your administration’s incompetence,” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) told the president.
Opponents Of The JCPOA Unlocked A Hellish Future
Iran and Egypt will meet, uncomfortably, in Seattle’s World Cup ‘Pride Match’
Sen. Van Hollen backs El-Sayed for Michigan Senate in break from Democratic leadership
A Final Day At Aqueduct, New York’s Forlorn And Forgotten Racetrack
And There’s Always The Bezos Post
We Must Restore Congress as the Predominant Branch of Government
Centrist Emotional Support Journalists
We Can Still Realize FDR’s Vision
NYC Rent Guidelines Board approves 2-year rent freeze, fulfilling Mamdani campaign pledge
Alexander Hamilton, the Wrong Founder
As America’s birthday approaches, its front yard is a construction zone
Ford Has Been Rehiring Quality Inspectors After AI Fell Short
Judge Blocks ‘Unconstitutional and Dangerous’ Trump Order Designed to Derail Mail-In Voting
Moody’s warns proposed political review of grants a credit negative
Trump the Bathroom Slob?
A Terrible Thing Happened to My Family
This MAGA Ohio Town Could Soon Face the Mother of All ICE Raids
Beware the Pink Tide?
Census Bureau Quietly Scraps Plan for Improved Data Collection on Race and Ethnicity
America Is Trapped in the Grossest Pool Party of All Time
Climate Change
I Went to Trump’s Great American State Fair. It Was Bleaker Than I Expected.
Starmersim

Time for Some Left-Wing Cletus Safaris

Over the last decade, multiple news organizations have inflicted Cletus Safaris on their readers, in which a reporter goes to a diner or some other folsky communal spot and talks with MAGA diehards with the goal of Elucidating The Real America. One would think that with the DSA seizing all three branches of governmentthree Mamdani-endorsed candidates winning Democratic primaries in New York City and a democratic socialist winning the D.C. mayorality it might behoove members of the political press corps to interview voters who voted for these candidates so as to understand this supposedly seismic event.

In D.C., for example, I really doubt democratic socialist Janeese Lewis George only lost D.C.’s Ward 3 by 1.8% (45.4% to 43.6%). It might be that Ward 3 is chock full of socialists, but I really don’t think that’s the case*. But a news organization could send reporters out to ask some questions! It would provide people with useful information, and it would be interesting: unlike the same fucking Cletus Safaris, this would be new–and you can’t spell news without new!

That they do not do this, and instead, fall back on the same tired tropes suggests that our news media also need the equivalent of a replacement election.

MOAR CLETUS SAFARIS! But leftistly!

*Not only do I think the Democratic primaries in areas where the primary is the de facto election experienced a ‘change’ election, but we also are seeing the weakening, if not collapse, of traditional urban power centers, and those centers are slowly being supplanted by new organizations and groups. Also, personality, as always, played a role. When Democratic voters in heavily Democratic areas are angry at Democrats, they don’t vote for Republicans, they move farther left (or off the axis entirely).

Schadenfreude 372 (A Continuing Series)

 

June 25-28
Red Sox 6, Yankees 3
Red Sox 6, Yankees 1
Red Sox 4, Yankees 1
Red Sox 5, Yankees 4 (10)

Yankees – 100 100 100   – 3  8  4
Red Sox – 000 040 02x   – 6  7  0

Yankees – 000 000 010   – 1  3  0
Red Sox – 121 001 01x   – 6  9  0

Yankees – 000 010 000   – 1  3  0
Red Sox – 112 000 00x   – 4  7  0

Yankees – 000 000 002 2 – 4  3  1
Red Sox – 000 200 000 3 – 5  6  2


"wheeeeee!"

More Langs:

Sonny Gray with a 7 1/3 IP no-hit bid vs the Yankees 
He’s the first former Yankees pitcher with a no-hit bid of at least 7 innings against the Yankees since 6/30/57 Ralph Terry (7 1/3 IP)

1988: 14
1917: 13
1915: 12
1914: 12
2026: 11 *active
1933: 11
1917: 11

2:21 [Friday]
2:22 [Saturday]
This is the first time consecutive Yankees-Red Sox games have been 2 hours, 22 minutes or shorter since they played three straight Sept. 27-29, 1983
Since earned runs became an official stat in 1913, this is the first time the Red Sox have swept the Yankees in a series of 4+ games in which Boston pitchers recorded a quality start in every game.

                      IP  H ER BB  K  PIT
Thu: Connelly Early: 6.0  5  2  1  9   98
Fri: Payton Tolle:   7.0  1  0  2  7   88
Sat: Jake Bennett:   6.1  3  1  2  3   87
Sun: Sonny Gray:     7.1  1  0  1  9   97
                    26.2 10  3  6 28   1.01 ERA


Bottom of the 10th


Sunday

Yankees Swept By Red Sox After Blowing Lead In Extras As Rally Goes For Naught In Brutal Loss
Greg Joyce, Post

A late rally gave the Yankees a chance to finish a brutal weekend on a high note.

Instead, somehow, it only delayed the misery.

On a night when Sonny Gray took a no-hitter into the eighth inning, Aroldis Chapman and the Red Sox defense melted down in the ninth inning, and the Yankees took the lead in the 10th, it still all came crumbling down for them . . . to deliver one last knockout punch on the way back to New York.

After the Yankees took their first lead since Thursday night with two runs in the top of the 10th, [Boston] came back to win it in the bottom of the frame against Fernando Cruz, as Jarren Duran's walk-off single lifted them to a 5-4 win that finished off a four-game sweep Sunday night at Fenway Park. . . .

[MFY manager Aaron Boone:] "It's one of those crap moments of the season, crap times of the season . . ."

On a weekend in which they were dominated by Red Sox starting pitching — Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, Jake Bennett and Gray combined for 26.2 innings in which they gave up just three runs, 10 hits and six walks while striking out 28 — the Yankees have now dropped eight of their past 11 after suffering their first four-game sweep to their archrivals since 2018.

The Red Sox had not won four straight games all season until this series. . . .

A month that began with the Yankees losing Aaron Judge to the injured list (his timeline for a return is still very fuzzy) is nearing an end with the club looking like it is feeling the effects . . . along with [the absences of] Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham. . . .

The Yankees[' bats] . . . have all gone cold at the same time, resulting in a four-game sweep in which the Yankees combined to hit just 17-for-128 (.133) with 10 walks. . . .

The night had begun like the last few before it, with Gray mowing down the Yankees.

Tolle had retired the first 16 Yankees on Friday night before Bennett carried a no-hitter into the fifth inning Saturday. Gray took flirting with history a step further before another former disgruntled Yankee, Chapman, flushed it in the ninth.

But even after the Yankees rallied and went ahead in the 10th . . . Cruz could not finish it off in the bottom of the inning.

He left pitches up that turned into a single, double, sacrifice fly and then Duran's walk-off winner.

"Great teams go through this," Cruz said. 

[Shitty teams go through it, too.]

Oswaldo Cabrera's First Game Back Since Gruesome Ankle Injury Comes With A Costly Yankees Error
Greg Joyce, Post

For the first time since a gruesome ankle injury last May, Oswaldo Cabrera was back in a big league lineup Sunday night.

It did not go as well as he had hoped, though, with a crucial fielding error giving way to a pair of runs early on the way to the Yankees' crushing 5-4, 10-inning loss to the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Cabrera went 0-for-3 . . . But his fielding error at third base loomed large in the fourth inning.

With a runner on first and one out in a scoreless game, Carlos Rodón got Willson Contreras to hit a hard grounder to third. Cabrera bobbled it and by the time he threw over to first, it was too late.

One out later, the Yankees should have been out of the inning, but instead Caleb Durbin came up next and hit a two-run single in what became a 37-pitch inning for Rodón, a big reason why he only lasted five innings.

The Yankees defense had let them down Thursday night, committing four errors, and then came back to bite them again Sunday. . . .

Thursday

Cam Schlittler played with fire for four innings and got away with it.

But then in the fifth, his defense added some lighter fluid, and his start went up in flames.

After Amed Rosario let a smoked ground ball go through his legs instead of turning a potential inning-ending double play, the first of four unearned runs came in on Schlittler to sink the Yankees in a sloppy 6-3 loss to the Red Sox on Thursday night . . .

Former Yankees prospect Caleb Durbin delivered the deciding blow before the fifth inning was over, taking Schlittler deep for a two-run shot just over the Green Monster to break a 2-2 tie.

The Yankees tried to mount a comeback in the ninth against their former closer, Aroldis Chapman, who loaded the bases with two outs before finally shutting the door.

It was a messy loss for the Yankees, who committed a season-high four errors . . . and wasted some chances to cash in offensively before the scuffling Red Sox came alive. . . .

The offense . . . [went] 3-for-11 with runners in scoring position — including Ben Rice, the Yankees' best hitter, going 0-for-4 in those situations and leaving seven men on base.

Schlittler stranded a pair of runners in each of the first, second and fourth innings. He might have been able to do it again in the fifth, until Rosario's fielding error opened the floodgates. . . .
Dan Martin, Post
. . . the season-high four errors they made in Thursday's 6-3 loss to the Red Sox at Fenway Park were especially tough. 

And even as they made the most errors in a game since the four they committed in a loss to Boston at Yankee Stadium last Aug. 21, there were even more miscues than the ones that made the stat sheet. . . .

Among the culprits was José Caballero, whose defensive versatility is part of what the Yankees were looking for when they acquired him from Tampa Bay last season. 

But they probably didn't foresee him starting in left field five times over an eight-game period as he's been forced to with Judge and Trent Grisham sidelined. . . . [H]is errant throw on Jarren Duran's very shallow fly ball [in the fifth] allowed Ceddanne Rafaela to score and helped Boston take control of the game. 

The fact that Rafaela even tried to score on the play indicated what the Red Sox thought of Caballero in left. . . .

Ball goes right under Amed Rosario's glove and the Red Sox score pic.twitter.com/WpfNGlZdiD
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) June 26, 2026

As for his throw home, which took Austin Wells away from the plate, Caballero said, "I put good velo on it. It was just a little off the line. And mistakes happen." . . .

[Thirs baseman Amed] Rosario let Willson Contreras' rocket 112 mph grounder go through his legs for a two-base error in the fifth . . . 

Wells was charged with an error on a catcher's interference that wiped away a groundout by Abreu in the first. Schlittler threw a pickoff attempt at second base that went into center field for an error, and the right-hander also watched Caleb Durbin's pop-up drop in front of him for an infield single in the second. Yerry De los Santos made the fourth error of the night in the eighth. 

Friday
 
The Yankees at least spared themselves the infamy of having a perfect game thrown against them [on Friday]. . . .

Red Sox lefty Payton Tolle dominated them across seven innings, allowing just one hit to Spencer Jones after retiring 16 straight to start the game, as the Yankees stumbled to a second straight loss by a score of 6-1. . . .

Tolle, who struck out 11 in six innings of one-run ball against the Yankees in April, was even more untouchable on Friday night while striking out seven. Jones poked a single into center field off him with one out in the sixth, and Tolle later walked a pair in the seventh. But all three base runners proved harmless as he mowed down the Yankees, who have now lost six of their past nine. . . .

Besides Tolle vying for a perfect game, the only real drama — if you can call it that — of the night came in the bottom of the fifth inning, when the benches cleared after Will Warren walked Willson Contreras. Ball four was up and in on Contreras, who essentially stands on top of the plate, and he flipped his bat before jogging down to first and jawing at Warren. 

Contreras, who had crushed a 418-foot homer off Warren earlier in the game, seemed to want to know why the Yankees pitcher was looking at him. . . .

That only added to the frustration for Warren, who gave up five runs on seven hits and three walks across 5.2 innings. For the first time in his career, he did not record a single strikeout. Warren was consistently hit hard even on outs, as 10 of the 24 balls the Red Sox put in play against him came off the bat at 95 mph or higher. 
Dan Martin, Post
What's become a mostly docile matchup in the AL East got some heat in the bottom of the fifth of a 6-1 Red Sox win, when Willson Contreras jawed at Will Warren as he headed to first base following a walk. 

Warren, whose second pitch of the at-bat was up and in to Contreras — clearly crowding the plate — said some words back to Contreras and the benches cleared. 

After Contreras homered and had an RBI single off Warren earlier in the game, Contreras flipped his bat after Warren walked him on a 3-2 pitch that was close to Contreras' elbow. 

Contreras continued to shout at the right-hander once he got to the bag, with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt looking to calm the situation. 

Warren clearly wasn't pleased with Contreras' behavior at the plate, saying the slugger was "playing games in the [batters'] box." 

Aaron Boone said it's what Contreras is known for. 

"I think that's what he does a lot,'' the manager said. "His arms hang over the plate, so I don't know where we're supposed to go [with pitches]. I think there's probably a method to what he's doing. He probably wants that. . . ."

Contreras was a menace to the Yankees all night, as he singled in a run in the first and homered to left in the third before the walk. 

The Yankees, losers of six of nine, have bigger concerns than any antics by Contreras as they try to right themselves . . .

Saturday

Contrary to popular belief, those were not toothpicks the Yankees were swinging Saturday. 

But they essentially would have served the same purpose as the lumber they did use, which has been ineffective the past few days. 

Once again, the Yankees got shut down by a lefty, with their bats going silent and offensive woes growing louder in a third straight loss to the last-place Red Sox, this time 4-1 on a fine afternoon at a sold-out Fenway Park. 

For a second straight game, Jake Bennett and the Red Sox bullpen held the Yankees to just three hits while Gerrit Cole got hit around, resulting in their seventh loss in the past 10 games. . . .

[New York] suddenly looks like it dearly misses Aaron Judge, not to mention Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham, who are also on the injured list. Grisham should return within the week, but Judge and Stanton do not appear anywhere close to coming back . . . 

Cole got hit hard for a second straight start, giving up four runs on seven hits, including a pair of solo home runs to Masataka Yoshida (to lead off the bottom of the first) and former Yankees first-round pick Anthony Seigler (in the bottom of the second). 

But the bigger culprit was the offense. After Tolle took a perfect game into the sixth inning against the Yankees on Friday night, Bennett had a no-hitter into the fifth Saturday . . . 

Over the first three games of this four-game set, the Yankees have gone just 14-for-94 (.149) with eight walks. 

Some of their most dependable batters have contributed to the recent malaise. Ben Rice went 0-for-4 Saturday and is now 2-for-23 over his past six games. Bellinger went 1-for-2 with two walks, improving him to 2-for-19 over his past six games. Amed Rosario, who had been a reliable lefty killer early on, is now 7-for-42 over his past 15 games. . . .
Greg Joyce, Post
Ben Rice has spent most of the season looking like an MVP candidate. 

But the past six games have been much more pedestrian, magnified by the rest of the Yankees offense going through a cold stretch with him. . . .

He is batting just 2-for-23 with a .174 OPS over his past six games, of which the Yankees have lost four. . . .

To be clear, Rice is far from alone in having a rough week. But it is noticeable because of how impactful he has been for most of the season — he finished Saturday batting .276 with a .940 OPS — with this marking the quietest stretch of his season so far. 

It comes during a week in which the Yankees have faced a heavy dose of lefty starters — including each of the past four games, with Red Sox southpaw Jake Bennett holding him down Saturday. . . .

In a bit of an oddity, Rice grounded out in eight straight plate appearances before striking out in his final at-bat Saturday. 

There's still no timetable for the Yankees to get their two biggest bats back from the injured list in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton . . . 


Asteroid Threat

Paleontologists have long worried that the dinosaurs blasted into space 66 million years ago will one day complete their orbits and fall back down.

Monday assorted links

1. The great Scott Wheeler on Stephen Sondheim (Free Press).

2. Is space the most underrated policy area?

3. On the USAID and deaths debate.  Hardly the final word, but an injection of sanity into what has been a low quality debate.  Here is commentary from GPT Pro.  In a few years we might have some accurate estimates.

4. Using LLMs in economic history.

5. Measuring economic growth through the valuation of human life.

6. Brooklyn Coffee Shop showcases my book The Complacent Class.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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AI cheating on math econ at Brown

The temptation to use artificial intelligence (AI) to cheat is shaking up elite universities in the United States. Professor Roberto Serrano, who is the Harrison S. Kravis University Professor of Economics at Brown University, has detected a massive fraud in one of the classes he teaches, ECON 1170, an advanced undergraduate course in mathematical economics. He has conclusive evidence that at least 50 students cheated on the March midterm exam, making it the biggest known scandal at Brown and in the entire Ivy League, which brings together the East Coast’s eight most elite private universities, including Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth College and University of Pennsylvania.

When he reported the case to high-ranking officials at Brown, he got a cold reaction. The response from the president, he said, was absolute silence. The dean did not comment either until Serrano took the case before the Academic Code Committee.

Here is the full story, via Anecdotal.

The post AI cheating on math econ at Brown appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Will AI make companies outsource more, or less?

Photo by Jerry Zhang on Unsplash

It’s almost hard to remember nowadays, but before the pandemic a lot of us were worried about falling business dynamism in the United States. For whatever reason, Americans just weren’t starting companies — either high-growth startups or small businesses — at the rate they used to. Much ink was spilled discussing possible reasons for the trend, and potential levers for reversing it.

Then the pandemic came, and the trend shifted almost overnight. Suddenly, Americans were creating new businesses again:

Notably, even in 2024 the trend in business applications showed no sign of reverting to its pre-pandemic level. The shift seems at least partly durable.

No one knows exactly why new business creation has surged in recent years. But one possibility is that technology has made it possible for people to start businesses with a lot fewer employees. Stripe Economics has an interesting blog post about the rise of “solopreneurs” — independent businesspeople who don’t employ anyone else at their businesses:

Stripe Economics
The age of the solopreneur
The US Census Bureau counts businesses as well as people. Four years ago, it made a major change to its business methodology. Until 2022, the Census Bureau assumed that businesses over a given revenue threshold must have employees. Even if a business declared itself a solo enterprise, it was automatically reclassified as an employer when it hit a certai…
Read more

The upshot is that there’s a big trend to “solopreneurship”, and that the pandemic accelerated the shift:

Source: Stripe Econ

Solopreneurship has been increasing since 2008, both in absolute terms and as a percent of new business formation. Some of this is due to legal changes. The Obamacare exchanges make it easier for solopreneurs to buy their own health insurance. The Qualified Business Income deduction, the simplified home-office deduction, and other tax changes have made it more favorable to be a solopreneur.

On top of that, the internet made a lot of solo business models easier to execute, from dropshipping businesses to YouTube channels to subscription-based email newsletters. I am a solopreneur myself — Noahpinion is an S-corporation. Substack made it incredibly easy for me to sell and deliver content online, Twitter/X made it incredibly easy for me to market that content, and Stripe made it incredibly easy to receive payments — all without hiring anyone.

The team at Stripe Economics argues that this latter trend is just getting started. Thanks to AI, the number of business models that can be executed by single individuals is growing rapidly:

An agent can now help you find the best tools for your business and handle your integration with minimal support….The recent growth in nonemployer businesses shows a positive relationship with industry-level AI adoption…

Part of the reason businesses historically tended to be built by groups was that a single individual rarely possesses all the skills needed in the entrepreneurial journey. Whether it’s how to evaluate or size a market, code an app, price a product, write and execute a marketing campaign, or close a deal, AI (and AI-augmented software) can fill many of the gaps that founders previously turned to another human for. Or, as Sam Altman so succinctly put it: “revenge of the idea guys.”

We think this phenomenon is the true engine of the AI surge in business formation we’re seeing today. The availability of this breadth of on-tap assistance allows anyone with sufficient motivation to go it alone. Given this, we think the 20% figure is a floor rather than a ceiling in terms of AI impact.

This makes sense. It’s pretty clear that one big reason to have a multi-person company has always been individual specialization. But Claude is far more versatile than any human being, so in the age of AI agents, specialization will probably be less important in many cases.

Even in the (many) cases where that doesn’t allow one person to run a company all by themself, it will tend to push companies toward lower headcount. Kim and Koning have a new working paper showing that “AI-native” companies now being created tend to have about 25% fewer employees than their peers.

This is important, because it bears on the future of human employment — the question that’s currently on almost everyone’s minds. It raises the possibility that self-employment is the future of employment. It’s easy enough to imagine a future in which relying on a group of other humans for your economic sustenance won’t be as important — instead, we’ll all be like little private ship captains, ordering around our crews of AI agents.

That future is easy to envision because it’s the logical endpoint of a trend that had already been going on for quite some time: the rise of corporate outsourcing. Whether it was manufacturing supply chains strung out across dozens of countries, or companies hiring subcontractors to do their payroll or their IT or their accounting, or corporations paying SaaS providers for software products, companies generally do a lot less of their work in-house than they did half a century ago.

The rise of outsourcing — both domestic and foreign — was enabled by improvements in transportation and communication technologies. Shipping crates and the internet made it easy to turn local production networks into regional or global ones. The internet made it easy to find contractors, verify their reputability, communicate with them, and monitor them to verify their work.

That fit very well with the leading economics theory of outsourcing: transaction cost theory. First advanced by Ronald Coase in the 1930s and later refined by Oliver Williamson and others, transaction cost theory says that companies exist because it’s sometimes cheaper and easier to execute transactions in-house than at arm’s length.

Consider the process of paying the workers at a factory. In 1937, for a company to get some other company to handle their payroll would have been a very arduous process. You would have had to look up payroll contractors in the phone book, ask around to find out whether each one had a good reputation, have their representatives come by your factory to get information about how many hours each worker had worked, and so on. Far easier to just walk down the hall to your own payroll division and have them do it.

But by 2007, this calculus had switched — thanks to the internet, it was fairly easy to do all that stuff at arm’s length, online. This allowed specialization at the level of the firm rather than at the level of the division or the employee — in other words, corporate outsourcing.

That’s just a story, of course. But in general, transaction cost theory is strongly supported by empirical evidence; in cases where we can measure transaction costs, they do seem to affect the decision to in-house versus outsource. Bergeaud et al. (2023) find evidence that the internet drove a wave of outsourcing in France, for example:

Does domestic outsourcing react to technological change? We study the staggered diffusion of broadband internet in France in the 2000s, and show that connected firms increased their outsourcing expenditures while decreasing the diversity of occupations they employ in-house…Overall, we show that the deployment of new technologies stimulated domestic outsourcing in this context[.]

There are other theories about why companies choose to do things themselves versus buying them from someone else, but many of them — incomplete contracts theory, agency theory, relational contracting theory, etc. — overlap substantially with transaction cost theory. The informality, close monitoring, and long-term relationships that form within a company can all be seen as ways of decreasing transaction costs.

A lot of people are assuming that when it comes to transaction costs, AI will work like the internet, only more so. (In fact, I find “AI will be like the internet, only more so” to be one of the most common tacit assumptions in AI discourse in general.) AI can read, understand, and analyze your business’s website in an instant — or dispense with the need of a website entirely. It can scan the entire internet to assess whether your business is a trustworthy contractor, or even contact you directly to find out. It can absorb nearly unlimited reams of business data, in order to monitor that you’re doing a good job. And so on.

It’s easy to see how this might lead to a world of total outsourcing and solopreneurs. But at the same time, it’s possible to imagine that AI will increase transaction costs between companies.

The simple reason is that AI doesn’t just analyze information; it also creates it. Yes, an AI can search the web for payroll outsourcing companies and get an idea of which are reputable by researching everything that has ever been said about each. But by the same token, an AI can create a new company, give it a website, and invent a bunch of other companies and reviewers to make it look legit. And then if and when your AI pays that AI’s fake company to do your accounting or whatever, the fake company can just take all your money and vanish in a puff of smoke.

AI-driven fraud is already happening, at scale. Here’s a BBC story from last year:

Unscrupulous foreign firms are using AI-generated images and false back stories to pose as family-run UK businesses to lure in shoppers…Customers say they feel “completely ripped off”…Consumer guide Which? said the growing use of AI tools was making it possible for fraudsters to mislead the public on an “unprecedented” scale.

If human consumers can be fooled, so can human purchasing agents and procurement specialists. “OK,” you respond, “I’ll just get an AI to do the purchasing and procurement. Problem solved.”

But here we are, back in the realm of transaction costs. You might need a frontier AI and a lot of expensive tokens to check the ever-expanding galaxy of fake companies in a way that would allow you to make a reliable outsourcing decision.

Nor would it even necessarily take fraud and manipulation in order to make arm’s-length transactions between AIs unreliable. Human beings are relatively consistent over time — if I do business with you today, I can be reasonably sure that doing business with you tomorrow will be similar, because your knowledge and skills and character etc. are all going to be roughly the same.

This is not generally true with AI — at least, not with the AIs that exist today. They are ephemeral creatures; their ability to maintain the same goals, personalities, and capabilities over the weeks or months or even years of a business-to-business contractor relationship has yet to be demonstrated. So in the world where everyone doing business is an AI agent, even if your company verifies that it’s dealing with a real and honest contractor, that verification might not hold for long.

If AIs remain inconsistent over time, trust will therefore have to be reestablished from scratch every so often, and that could be expensive. In fact, we’ve already seen an example of just how expensive constant re-verification of trust can be: Bitcoin. In order to do away with the need for intermediaries like banks to verify transactions, Bitcoin has to reestablish trust between counterparties every time a transaction is performed. As Eric Budish has shown, constant reestablishment of trust is incredibly expensive in terms of electricity, which basically dooms Bitcoin’s use as a medium of exchange.

So AI doesn’t have to be an unreliable partner in order to put an end to the world of ubiquitous online contracting that we’ve built over the past three decades. All it has to be is a partner whose reliability is expensive to verify.

If AI brings about a world of higher transaction costs, due to the inherent unreliability of long-term arm’s-length dealings between AI agents, then the AI age will probably be one of bigger companies. Internal procedures for verifying trustworthiness — the AI equivalent of walking down the hall and knocking on the door of your own internal corporate division — might be the new equivalent of the informal long-term relationships that lower transaction costs within a typical human-staffed company.

In a post back in April, I predicted that Japan-style “salarymen” occupations — ever-shifting irregular bundles of tasks within a single big company — might be a more important kind of job all around the world going forward. But the transaction cost theory of the firm could give us another reason to expect the same. If only big companies can establish internal trust cheaply, then many humans — whatever kind of work they’re still doing 10 or 30 years from now — will be working for big companies.

That doesn’t mean solopreneurship is a temporary trend or a dead end. There are probably many lines of business in which long-term trust between agents carrying out specialized business processes is not a big deal. In those areas, solopreneurs will flourish. We may thus see a bifurcated distribution of company sizes and job types — a vast horde of solopreneurs, and a few monster companies employing huge numbers of wage earners.


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So You Want to Fix Your All Hands

I will now explain why at least 50% of your team finds your current All Hands to be a waste of their time. They believe:

  1. This is information they can easily find elsewhere.
  2. This is about you, not them.
  3. This is boring.

Now, I will describe how to build an All Hands that will exceed their expectations. Let’s define the All Hands:

Everyone. Together.

There’s an important organizational inflection point when you need the All Hands. The basic definition is, “The whole team — together.” If you’re a leader of a team of seven, then you might think your team meeting is your All Hands and — strictly speaking — that’s correct, but that’s your team or staff meeting. Not an All Hands.

The whole team — together. This is a required meeting when the whole team is no longer able to be together organically. Is that 50? Maybe? Is that when they no longer fit in one room easily? Probably? The inflection point varies as a function of the company, but this is a required meeting because it mimics what you did instinctively when you were a smaller team, and that’s a good place to start.

When it’s you, Frank, Aki, Liz, Gigi, and Joshua sitting in the same room cranking on your start-up, what are the events that everyone needs to regularly understand?

  1. What is the current state of the business?
  2. When has something significant in the business changed?
  3. What is important for us to do next?

In the same room, it is relatively easy to gather much of this information. You look around, see that Liz is on the phone closing her new head of engineering, and you think, “Go, Liz! I liked her candidate a lot.” Then you look over at Gigi, who has been quiet for two days and hasn’t smiled in four, and think, “She is the most focused designer in the world. I can’t wait to see what she’s done with our logo.” And so on.

The ebb and flow of information in a group of humans decreases as a function of population size. With growth, your ability to organically discern what is going on within the team decreases1.

Pick a Format. Keep It.

It’s not just the ebb and flow of information, but the chance that Critical Piece of Information X reaches Correct Person Y. Each additional human creates another opportunity for important information to not reach its intended recipient.

As the senior leader, it’s trivial to forget this simple math because there’s a firehose pointed straight at your face. Your challenge is not the absence of information, it’s the abundance. Your challenge is picking out the signal from the noise while also not drowning.

The firehose is the primary reason for my first piece of structure guidance: pick a format for your All Hands and stick with it. Here’s the format I’ve been using for a couple of decades:

  • Hello, let’s learn something.
  • Here’s the current structure of the team and how it is different from the last time I showed this structure to you. If something huge changed or is about to change, there is room later to address this, or you can do it now.
  • Here’s an opportunity to hear from my direct reports.
  • Here’s a special guest.
  • No Q&A. I’ll explain shortly.

I’ll explain the intent of each section in a moment, but the important thing to know right now is your structure will be different than mine, and that’s just fine. The point is not following my lead, but consistency. Anyone who receives an invite to this meeting understands broadly what to expect out of the meeting. Senior leaders who randomly do All Hands with fluid agendas at a time that suits them stress the team. When the unexpected and unexplainable meeting shows up, they instinctively think, “Uh oh. Someone’s in trouble.”

Tree Talk

We open with Hello. Nothing fancy. Over the years, a simple hello seemed empty. I wanted to do a little more than say hello while folks were still gathering and getting into the All Hands mindset. At the last gig, I followed Hello with a single slide called “Tree Talk,” where I spent a few minutes teaching the team something interesting about trees. One slide, a few facts. Totally irrelevant to the team, but absolutely essential to the culture.

Why? Because I believe curiosity is an intrinsic motivator. I don’t want the team sitting there as I drone on about things they already know; I want them to see what I care about. I care a lot about trees, but I care more about the team understanding the value of curiosity.

One Slide. What Changed.

This is often the most boring part of the presentation, except when it isn’t. This is a picture of your organization. “The org chart.” Your job is to describe what has changed since the last time you threw this up on the screen with a little color commentary.

  • It will feel tactical and obvious, but as I said above, this is because it’s your organization, and it’s likely you were involved in whatever changes occurred. Zero changes? Really? OK, you still show the chart and briefly say, “Hey, nothing’s changed here. Next slide.”
  • If massive changes have occurred since the last time you showed this, it’s worth cutting something from later in the agenda below in order for you and your team to explain what changed on the team and why.
  • One slide. Never more. Yes, for a large organization, this means you’ll need to simplify or abstract out some organizations into simpler buckets. That’s fine — it just means you have subteams that need their own All Hands.

Not Your Show

The bulk of the presentation is not you, but some or all of your direct reports. What are they going to discuss? Up to them. The greatest hits:

  • We built something!
  • We learned something!
  • Everything changed on the team, and we need to explain.

There are more.

We haven’t discussed the length of your All Hands, and now is a good time. The maximum amount of time is 90 minutes. Frequency? Minimum is once a quarter.

  • 90 minutes is a lot of time. In my experience, the average human’s attention span in a meeting like this is 30 minutes, which is why I have the above-suggested agenda. Think of it as three acts. Act 1 sets the table. Act 2 is the heart of the matter — what the team is actually doing. Act 3 brings in the rest of the company — more on that in a moment. Each act gets about 30 minutes. Act 1 runs short unless the building’s on fire, Act 2 always runs long, and Act 3 you can cap.
  • Once a quarter is the sweet spot for this meeting. Four times a year. Every month? Overkill and a waste of time. Once a year? Not an All Hands, it’s an Annual Report.

I’m talking timing right now because Act 2’s size is a function of the number of direct reports. Three? They should all have a slot — seven minutes per direct, but they’ll end up using 10. Anything more than three and you’ll need to devise a rotation between directs.

Back to their agenda. You should roughly know what they are going to talk about, but don’t micromanage it. It’s their schtick. If they screw it up, give them feedback.

You’re building the humans who will replace you. All the time. This is one of the many ways you do that.

The Mystery Guest

For Act 3, you want to bring in someone else for a fireside chat. Who? Depends on your team or your company. Start with known folks who are obvious co-conspirators. Folks you personally know with an existing rapport. Write 10 or so questions that you want to ask them, and send them the questions a week before. Warn them that you might go off-script — because you might — and see if they are OK with such vibes.

When you get to the External Speaker portion of the All Hands, sit down next to them and start asking the questions. The most important advice? Listen to their answers. By far, the most interesting bits of this interview are the new things you discover via the conversation.

After you’ve done a handful of familiar folks and have a well-refined set of questions, start asking humans you don’t know. Folks you’ve heard of that the team has worked with, but don’t know. My favorite one? I had the CEO show up once as a mystery guest. Fascinating 30 minutes.

Which reminds me. Tell no one who the speaker will be, except the humans who must know.2

No Q&A?

A controversial take, but an earned one. If I’m doing a talk at a conference, the Q&A portion of the presentation is my favorite. The questions quickly tell me how well I delivered the core messages of my talk. Even the random ones that have very little to do with my talk.

All Hands meetings are a different beast. Yes, it is a series of presentations and, yes, there are core messages delivered, but the large surface area covered in ninety minutes plus the size of the audience usually means questions:

  • Feel random, and/or
  • Purely serve the agenda of the human asking the question.

However, you must create one more venue for the team to ask questions. Think Slack, your favorite message app, or via staff meetings. Even if you don’t, don’t worry, the important questions will find you.

Entropy Crushing

Being social is work. Especially for engineers. We’d much prefer to be jamming at our desktop. Each time I’ve landed at a new gig where there was no culture of All Hands, I was disappointed by the attendance at first. 50% or worse.

Yes, you can order donuts, and more will show up, but the real draw should be the presentation.

They should leave with the lesson: This is where I will learn.

A regular All Hands meeting is inoculation. You are inoculating your team with quality information. This information will be used to disassemble gossip, rumors, and lies. This information will answer questions before they are asked. This information will remove noise so the human can focus on why they are there — to build.

  1. The folks who need the All Hands the most are the ones who are the least able to request it. See, your old guard employees, even in a rapidly growing team, are the best equipped to gather and share signal. This is why when someone new says, “We should do an All Hands,” they react negatively, “Why? That’s a big company meeting, and we’re a small group of high-hustle movers and shakers.” Yes, this meeting is not for the old guard; it’s for everyone who came after them.
  2. While I am preaching consistency, with regard to your External Speaker, I like keeping it a mystery because it will, eventually, give your team more motivation to attend. I wonder who it is this time!

Working With AI: A Concrete Example

I am, generally, ambivalent towards AI. There is no doubt it has become a very powerful tool for development in the last year, but it also comes with many dangers, both for us individually (e.g. the slow dulling of our intellects) as well as collectively (e.g. environmental concerns, increasingly expensive personal computing, etc.)

In “Code is Cheap(er)�, I warn about The Sorcerer’s Apprentice problem, where a developer becomes reliant on AI and is unable to understand and properly address issues that come up in the systems they are building.

In this article I want to go through a specific interaction that I had with AI while maintaining hyperscript to show the strengths and weaknesses of AI in general and to demonstrate The Sorcerer’s Apprentice problem (which I narrowly avoided) in particular.

The Hyperscript Parser

For some background, hyperscript is an alternative interpreted scripting language for the web. It is, ironically, written entirely in JavaScript.

It is a strange piece of software: I intentionally broke many of the rules of parsing when writing it as an experiment to see how things would work out.

Some examples:

It is not an approach I would recommend for most programming languages, but it has worked out pretty well for this project.

Yet another demonstration that there are indeed multiple ways to skin the cat in software.

A Bug Report

Our story begins when a user reported a regression when upgrading to the 0.9.91 release. The following expression no longer parsed properly:


fetch `{% url 'trade:get_symbol_data' %}?symbol=${symbol}` as JSON

In particular, the as JSON was binding too tightly and trying to convert the string literal into JSON before it was handed to fetch instead of doing what the user expected (and what it did previously) namely fetching the given url with the results treated as JSON.

This sort of binding conflict is a classic problem in parsing.

Because hyperscript is an xTalk style language and inherits many of the ambiguities of English, this problem is all the worse in it.

Investigating The Cause

The first thing to do was to investigate why this regression occurred.

This is an area where I am typically going to lean on AI to help.

I use Claude, and it did an admirable job finding the root cause: in 0.9.91 I had been overly aggressive in refactoring the go command to reuse/share logic with the fetch command.

I had extracted a common method for both of these commands to use, parseURLOrExpression(), but, in doing so, I accidentally expanded the grammar after the fetch command to include the general expression, er, expression.

The as keyword has a meaning in expressions: it is a conversion expression, allowing you to convert between types:

  set x to "42" as Int

But the as keyword is also a modifier of the fetch command, telling it how to convert the response:

  fetch https://hyperscript.org as Text

(Perhaps this fact makes you throw up a little bit in your mouth. Good.)

The crux of the issue was that, inadvertently in the refactor, I had made the parser parse an expression after a fetch keyword which was now consuming the as keyword as an expression, rather than allowing it to be a modifier for fetch.

With the help of Claude I was able to figure this out in a few minutes, much faster than if I had had to figure it out on my own.

Fixing The Issue

AI was very helpful in finding the cause of the problem.

In fixing the problem, however, it was much weaker.

I will admit here I was being lazy and asked AI for a solution, so complaining about those solutions feels a bit, well, lazy, but I still think the string of events is informative, so let’s go through exactly what happened.

Proposed Fix 1: A Hack

The first suggestion that was given was to parse what is called a “string-like� leaf first, then fall back to a full expression:

return this.parseElement("stringLike") || this.requireElement("expression");

This fix would have solved the immediate problem presented by the user.

However, it was very specific to the reported bug and wouldn’t have fixed the general case, such as if someone uses a variable as the target of a fetch:

  fetch $url as JSON

I rejected this proposal because of this: too hacky and not general enough.

(Note that the hyperscript parser has plenty of organically supplied hacks in it, so this may have been the pot calling the kettle black.)

Proposed Fix 2: Better But Unnecessary Complexity

The second proposal was more interesting: add a noConversions flag on the parser, set it around the URL parse, and have AsExpression.parse bail when it is set:

// AsExpression.parse()
if (parser.noConversions) return;

This will horrify many parser engineers because it makes the hyperscript parser context-sensitive.

Good.

The hyperscript parser was already context-sensitive.

In looking at this fix and thinking for a second, I realized that we already had the hacky context-sensitive infrastructure we needed without introducing a new flag on the parser, but Claude had missed it.

“Follows� In The Hyperscript Parser

In the hyperscript parser we have a notion of “follows�, that is, tokens that are claimed by a “higher up� parse element as a follow token.

The hyperscript parser is (a somewhat strange) recursive descent parser, and this allows a parse element (usually a command) to “claim� a keyword, and expressions won’t match against them during parsing.

As an example, the when feature uses or as a separator rather than as a logical connective in its declaration:

<div _="when $x or $y changes put it into me"></div>

(I can hear many parser engineers closing this window in anger. Good.)

It turns out that this feature could be used to achieve what we wanted: rather than adding a new flag to the parser we could push as as a follow, then parse the expression, then pop it as a follow.

This would prevent the AsExpression from parsing, while still allowing most general expressions such as variables to work.

Proposed Fix 3: Close, But No Cigar

I pointed this out to Claude and, in a frisson of excitement, it told me that I was “absolutely right!� and set about using this technique to fix the bug.

Claude added the correct code to the parseURLOrExpression() which fixed the issue generally without adding any additional parser infrastructure.

Good to go.

The Final, Semi-Organic Fix

However, as I was reviewing the change, I realized that the new fix was overly broad: both fetch and go shared this method, but only fetch used as to signal a modifier.

The existing fix prevented the perfectly valid use of as conversion expressions in go commands as well.

So I implemented the final fix myself, in FetchCommand#parse():

  parser.pushFollow("as");
  try {
    var url = parser.parseURLOrExpression();
  } finally {
    parser.popFollow();
  }
  
  if (parser.matchToken("as")) {
      ...

Here I narrowed the special case to only the fetch command, leaving go parsing unaffected.

This ended up being my final answer to the bug.

Tests

Along the way I had Claude generate some tests for the various cases.

There is a good existing test suite for hyperscript, and Claude did a good job of creating small, focused tests that showed the problem and that the fix was working properly.

Another area AI appears to work well.

The Moral of The Story

OK, so what is interesting about this fairly mundane bug fix story?

I think it is interesting to see where AI did well, namely in investigation and test creation, and to contrast that with where it didn’t do so well: coming up with a clean solution.

If I had not been familiar with the hyperscript parser and its infrastructure this fix could have easily led to technical debt being accrued in the project: another hacky parsing corner case, another bit of state on the parser, etc.

Technical debt, I assert without evidence1, grows exponentially, and therefpre it is very important to minimize it in your projects.

This story shows how having a human in the loop, working with an agent and with a good understanding of the underlying infrastructure, can be much more effective in controlling complexity than an agent left to its own devices.

Some people will look at the hyperscript code base and scoff at the notion that controlling complexity was ever a consideration at all. I am sympathetic to that view.

However, in this example we can see in a concrete scenario how complexity was restrained, at least a bit, in fixing an admittedly embarrassing bug, by a knowledgeable human working with an AI agent.

This is a situation where, rather than being a sorcerer’s apprentice and blindly accepting the solutions AI proposed, I was acting as a sorcerer (I hope that’s not too arrogant to say!) demanding a correct solution that better fit the existing codebase’s architecture.

I understood the problem and saw the correct solution and was able to work with AI to achieve it and then verify the solution with the help of AI-generated tests.

This is in contrast, I hope a good contrast, with some forms of vibe coding currently being pushed in which developers (or whatever) appear to pride themselves on not understanding what is actually going on.

Aside: AI & The Older Developer

Another thing occurred to me as I was going back over this experience.

I am an older developer, having turned 50 this year. As developers get older the reality is that we tend to “lose our fastball�, at least to some extent.

Practically, for me, this has meant two things:

  • I am not able to remember as much as I used to
  • I am not able to work as long of hours as I used to

It turns out that AI directly addresses both of these issues.

With respect to memory, while I can’t remember everything I used to be able to, I can understand things again very quickly with appropriate, er, prompting. AI is very good at helping me with this, and it lets me switch between open source projects and work projects much more efficiently than if I didn’t have it.

With respect to the long hours, AI is able to grind in a way that, even as a young developer, I would have had a difficult time keeping up with. This means, for example, I can have a much more extensive test suite for my projects than I would have otherwise.

Looking at the tests that Claude generated in this case, they are more extensive than what I probably could have mustered the energy to do myself.

So AI has addressed two fundamental (relative) weaknesses I have developed as an older developer.

On the other hand, I am very worried that it is also enabling a more general regression in my overall intelligence. This is something that occurs naturally as you age anyway. AI reliance may accelerate this process however and I have to say, looking back at this story, I’m a bit ashamed of how long I leaned on Claude before just doing the right thing darned myself.

This is an area I am still trying to navigate myself.

Conclusion

I wanted to write up this series of interactions because I thought it captured some of the good and some of the bad of AI assistance in coding. It demonstrated the value of a reasonably competent developer in the loop working with an AI agent, and also showed the danger of blindly accepting the first (or second) solution that an AI agent suggests to a problem.

I hope that it is useful to you as you develop your own thoughts and strategies around AI agents.

–

1

This was revealed to me in a dream.

A dozen books enjoyed by venture capitalists (from a16z)

 Reading lists are interesting both for the books they describe, and for what they say about the list makers. Here are a dozen interesting-looking books from people at the venture capital firm Andreeason Horowitz (aka A16Z).

A reading list for the deeply curious
Part one of our summer reading list: 12 books on technology, markets, AI, code, and the systems behind change.   a16z crypto 

Four of the twelve recommended books come under the heading  How markets are designed.

These are those: 

Moral Economics: From Prostitution to Organ Sales, What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work by Alvin E. Roth

“My doctoral advisor, Al Roth, has been thinking for decades about ‘repugnance’ – why some people prefer that some markets should not exist. In Moral Economics, he tackles the motivation for these prohibitions and the trade-offs they force, head-on. And he explores, in particular, how such non-market norms emerge and sometimes later collapse — limitations on alcohol and drugs, and, in a completely different category, same-sex marriage have all been relaxed in recent years — and what this means for making markets in the future.” – Scott Duke Kominers, research

Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson

“Acemoglu and Robinson’s central thesis, that inclusive institutions drive prosperity while extractive ones cause stagnation, maps surprisingly well onto crypto. Decentralized protocols are essentially an attempt to hard-code inclusive institutions: open access, no gatekeepers, rules enforced by code rather than by whoever’s in power. The book is a great lens for understanding why certain blockchain ecosystems thrive while others are captured by insiders. A must-read for anyone thinking seriously about governance, whether at the nation-state or protocol level.” – Kira Song, finance

An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets by Donald MacKenzie

“Sociologist Donald MacKenzie’s An Engine, Not a Camera is nominally a book about financial economics, but its real subject is more provocative: What happens when theories stop describing the world and start changing it? MacKenzie traces how academic models of markets escaped the university and became embedded in the markets themselves. First published in 2006, it remains relevant today in a number of contexts — not least because of the recent interest from TradFi in crypto. But I wanted to read it again because of the book I’m working on with colleague Robert Hackett, about how computer science theories acted on the world.” – Tim Sullivan, editorial

A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market by Edward O. Thorp

“Growing up, I was obsessed with the movie 21 and the idea that you could actually use math to beat the house. This book is the autobiography of the man who essentially started it all. Edward Thorp went on to apply those same principles to Wall Street, becoming the father of quantitative investing. It’s an incredible story about using pure logic to disrupt rigged legacy systems, which perfectly captures the same builder mindset we see in crypto today.” – Ben Wu, talent

Daniel Agee: ‘Remembering Om’

Daniel Agee, an early member of the team at Glass, writing on the Glass blog:

It’s not lost on us that Om’s photography, often taken in frozen lands in or around the arctic circle, was the polar opposite of his personality. While he focused on subtle shapes and hidden landscapes, he was the sun of any group he was in. Folks just naturally fell into his orbit.

Agee’s lovely piece is replete with photos by Om.

A veteran of the internet publishing space, he was one of the first to take the now well-worn path of technology writing into venture capital. When we briefly explored raising a small round of VC funding after our launch to support our growth, Om was our first call. He answered and immediately said, “I love you guys, I’ll invest the money if you want it, but don’t fucking do it. What you have is special. Don’t fucking ruin it.”

That’s Om. Simple and to the point. That simplicity showed up in his photography practice. Strip away everything from a photograph, down to the bare minimum of contrast or shadow. What do you focus on? What do you see? How can something so simple be so fulfilling?

That is exactly how Om spoke. Always. To the point. Why waste time? Why mince words? Why make someone guess what you really think? Our instincts say otherwise, but it’s not rude to be blunt. Unmoderated honesty is a profound courtesy.

 ★ 

Matt Mullenweg: ‘All Roads Lead to Om’

Matt Mullenweg:

Fundamentally, Om was a lover of humanity. He became a fast “regular” everywhere he went. He wouldn’t just buy coffee, he would also learn the name and story of every barista, the dogs and people in South Park. His deep curiosity and respect weren’t just for the fine and famous. It extended to every soul that crossed his path. His encyclopedic knowledge and photographic memory created connections not just in San Francisco, but all around the world wherever we traveled. (I need to pull the stats, but we went to five continents together, including Antarctica.)

He loved people and their stories.

And:

One of the biggest lessons I learned from Om is the deep appreciation of craft. When he took an interest in photography or pens, he would somehow find his way to the most obscure, highest-quality expression of that form. “What Would Om Want?” is a question I will always ponder. I want to craft products that would make Om proud.

If you’re going to get into something, you ought to pursue it to its full extent. If you’re not interested enough to do that, don’t bother getting into it. Find the few things you love; don’t waste your time on the many things you merely like.

Matt is keeping a wonderful list of links to other remembrances and tributes to Om.

 ★ 

The New York Times: ‘Om Malik, Whose Blog Shaped How Silicon Valley Saw Itself, Dies at 59’

Clay Risen, writing for The New York Times (gift link):

Mr. Malik started his blog just as the dot-com bubble burst, leading to a recession that also took down many of the journalism start-ups that wrote about tech, like The Industry Standard and Inside.com. He was among the most prominent of the writers who quickly filled the gap, covering Silicon Valley with a mixture of hot scoops and sharp opinions that quickly made Gigaom a must-read.

“The Android OS leaves me feeling like one feels three hours after having Chinese food: a tad empty,” he wrote in a 2010 post that neatly summarized Google’s struggles to move beyond its roots as a search platform. “Google has to learn the art of engagement — something particularly challenging.”

Lovely, warm, accurate and fair obituary. This pulled snippet is a great one. Early Android as Chinese takeout is such a deft analogy, and the piece really isn’t about Android specifically but Google institutionally. Not speeds and feeds, but can they make products with a soul? With heart? Om’s pessimism was obvious, and I’d say, prescient.

He had a rare ability to see around corners, and to pick out from the horde of new companies the ones that were going to make real change. He was an early champion of Slack, the workplace messaging service, and in 2006 he was the first blogger to write extensively about Twitter. He was not a fan.

Back in the day Letterman had a recurring bit called “Is This Anything?” They’d bring someone or something on stage and then Dave and Paul would render their up/down judgment: was that anything? The answer, more often than not, was no. The Letterman bit was a gag. But that’s basically what tech journalism is — especially back in the heyday of startups. Every startup believes it’s something and wants the press to think it’s something. Most of the time, it’s not something. Once in a while it is. Om was so goddamn good at identifying the somethings.

Long before Facebook came in for attacks from both the political left and right, he called out, during a 2013 interview with Bloomberg TV, what he said was “absolutely an air of amorality” on the part of its founder and chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg. In the same interview, he criticized the venture capitalist John Doerr for “patently trying to hijack the political process.”

He was right early, and right often. You can say now that everyone knows there’s “an air of amorality” at Facebook institutionally and with Zuckerberg personally. In 2013 that was not a common refrain. Just a year earlier, Apple had added Facebook account integration at the system level in iOS 6.

 ★ 

Uber-Rich Repeat Ayn Rand’s Deadly Mistake

“I’m So Smart, Listen to Me” Has Led To Historic Catastrophes

In a New York Times piece, “All Men Are Created Equal, Not Everyone Agrees“, Kim Phillips-Fein correctly critiques the current trend of rich men who disparage equality and want us to give way to whomever they take to be the exceptional few. She quotes billionaire Peter Theil and others that there are such special people, themselves included of course, whom we should defer to. She defends equality but points out that unfortunately notable people throughout U.S. history have disputed the idea that all are equal. It’s the same ridiculous and horrendous mistake that Ayn Rand made, which will be describe.

First, “All men” should obviously be shortened to “All”. All genders, all colors, all sexuality, simply “All”. The Times piece implies that but let’s state it explicitly.

Second, as the piece points out in quotes from various men, they confuse the meanings of equality. They claim that because not all have the same intelligence or productivity, that equality is therefore a myth. Well of course not all have the same capabilities or temperaments. The equality staked out in the Declaration of Independence is equality of value. Bright or not, greatly productive or not, each is a human deserving, no, requiring the full respect, and treatment-with-value as every other. That these men of claimed brilliance stumble over this simple distinction highlights their shortcomings. History shows that those same blind spots have created catastrophes.

To explain, let’s look at how this is all a repeat of the mistake Ayn Rand made. A mistake so absurd and deplorable as to, again, highlight its own shortcomings.

Well over a decade ago I read Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged”. Long before reading it I had known her philosophy, Objectivism, and felt it had some truth but was incomplete. Knowing that, I never felt the need to read her novel. When I did read it I was surprised at it’s core theme. The core thing that she expresses relentlessly, almost without pause, throughout her long novel, is her complete contempt for almost all people.

It’s supposed to celebrate the individual, but just like in real life, actions speak louder than words. In her story there are maybe 25 people in the whole U.S. who are virtuous, productive and capable. All of the other 99.9999 percent are idiots who couldn’t even feed themselves if not for the work of this handful of worthies.

This is not some exaggeration. This literally is the story. The brightest man goes about finding all the other men who can think and are productive (they are almost without exception men), and convinces them to leave society and live in their own compound. Their expressed purpose is they think society is so messed up it deserves to collapse, and that if this small group withdraws it will collapse. Indeed the end scene is several of them flying over New York City watching as transportation and power and lights fail. Society disintegrates into chaos with, we’re given to understand, starvation and all the worst results you can imagine. All because this handful of people withdrew and the rest of us idiots are incapable of keeping the lights on without them.

A philosophy of productiveness, of initiative, of responsibility for oneself is exactly correct as far as it goes, like one side of a coin. The side of the coin she missed has most of the value of everything from the teachings of Jesus, to the philosophy of the Western World in the constitution. Her extreme elitism stands in contrast to the open compassion of Jesus, and to our constitution. To our central idea that we hold all people in such high esteem that the sanctity of every individual is our core. That the sanctity of the wisdom of the people, through democratic elections, is the foundation of our government. She claims to believe that, but her book tells a different story.

It is the bulk of the people, workaday people, whose industriousness, ingenuity, and character creates pretty much everything worthwhile. Their relentless building, generation upon generation, of cultures, economies, societies, cities, philosophies. Far from being unable to feed ourselves or keep the lights on, we are the ones who grow the food and literally do keep the lights on. Who did she think she was and how did she come to be so bizarrely arrogant and blindly ignorant? How does one come to think that the very people who grow all the food and do all the work couldn’t keep things going if not for the “blessed” presence of her and a few who think too much of themselves? If Musk and Theil and some of their fellows wanted to leave now, leave their companies to the direction of others, and go live in a compound away from the rest of us, they are welcome to it.

Adding a note here about the current crop of uber-rich, it is also the work of the many that created the wealth owned by the few rich men now claiming superiority. As directors they may have ambitious ideas and state the goals but then every step of carrying that out is done by competent, workaday people. The many built the wealth that those rich few now stand on to claim their superiority.

Unfortunately, it is often those few that are exceptionally effective who are too good at amassing power. They leave the workaday people with less than what their work should gain them, get them frustrated, play on their fears, play groups off each other, and end up undermining the good world that the work of the bulk of the people creates.

Rand’s one-sided coin, her philosophy of logic without heart, is dangerous. In her story not only do her elites withdraw, some actively sabotage the work of the many, under the idea that their collapse is needed in order to have a clean start toward a better future. Better in the eyes of one person, Ayn Rand. That’s the exact same mistake Mao Zedong made in China, starving millions, certain it was necessary in order to lead them to a better future. There is nothing more dangerous than moral certainty without heart.

We humans, we many, contain both, logic and heart. Our ideas are great because they have both, from New Testament compassion to the democracy and rights in our constitution. Rand missed that. Missed it in a most extreme way. Missed the best 99.9999 percent of it.

Now this current crop of uber rich want to repeat all of that mistake.

They are amazingly good at some things, at amassing money, and spearheading organizations of engineers to build spaceships and satellite networks and the like. At the same time they readily demonstrate that they are very bad at some essential human skills and understanding.

Take Elon Musk’s DOGE project to radically cut government spending. Wantonly hacking away at parts of an organization in the “move fast and break things” mode and then building new things as you go is a great way to advance a technology company. But it’s a terrible way to approach governing when the “break things” part is real peoples’ lives who may be ruined in the mean time.

Musk either didn’t know that, which would emphasize that his skills do not extend to human leadership, or he didn’t care, which would be worse. It verifies that even though these men are uber-accomplished they have flaws which disqualify them from leadership regarding the lives of the many.

Mao Zedong, as noted, was also amazingly capable and accomplished. He rose from being a peasant to leading the people of the most populous country to completely transform it. But, oops, the holes in his understanding of humanity led him to impose policies that created a famine that killed 40 million people. In a current parallel, there is a very credible estimate that when the DOGE project mostly eliminated U.S.A.I.D., the foreign aid agency, it resulted in 600,000 additional deaths worldwide, in the first year.

Being good at some things does not qualify one to mess with peoples’ lives. The fact that these current uber few don’t even seem to have a sense of what their limitations are, that they are too un-self-aware to know that they don’t know, is such a fundamental disqualification they would be terrible choices for most high positions. Yes, let them lead companies. But don’t let them anywhere near the governing of the people.


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Politically Incorrect Paper of the Day: The US Racial Wealth Gap

Writing in the QJE, Derenoncourt, Kim, Kuhn, & Schularick argue that today’s black-white wealth gap can be explained by differences in initial conditions from over a hundred and fifty years ago, i.e. slavery. But there is an important, and glaring objection: in the age of immigration (1850–1924) millions of whites immigrated to the United States with essentially no wealth and yet they caught up to the “heritage” whites quite quickly and indeed today are richer than heritage whites.

Brian Marein collects and carefully analyzes the data:

Persistent racial wealth inequality in the United States is often attributed to the intergenerational transmission of historical wealth disparities. However, inferring the determinants of long-run inequality from group-level data is complicated by the arrival of 30 million Europeans during the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1924), who are by construction included in average white wealth despite having no direct claim to the wealth accumulated by earlier Americans. This paper accounts for this compositional change in the white population by documenting wealth dynamics among European immigrants and their descendants. Cash-on-arrival data show that immigrants began with substantial wealth deficits relative to the native-born. Yet by the late twentieth century, these deficits had closed, as indicated by comparisons between the descendants of later-arriving Southern and Eastern Europeans and those of longer-established Northwestern Europeans. This pattern implies rapid intraracial wealth convergence, in contrast to the slower convergence observed across racial groups. A stylized model shows that these differences can be largely accounted for by income. These findings demonstrate that large wealth disparities do not mechanically persist when groups have access to comparable economic opportunities.

If initial conditions don’t explain the wealth gap then the most likely explanation is an income and/or savings gaps. I am reminded of an earlier politically incorrect paper of the year by Nathaniel Hilger and see also my review of his book The Parent Trap.

The post Politically Incorrect Paper of the Day: The US Racial Wealth Gap appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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June 28, 2026

A wide range of Democratic voices are in the process of shaping new political language to move their party, and the country, forward. James Talarico is one of those new voices. On Friday, June 26, he delivered his official acceptance speech for the Democratic nomination for U.S. senator from Texas at the Texas Democratic Convention held in Corpus Christi.

He began by invoking Barbara Jordan, a lawyer who in 1972 became the first Black woman elected to Congress from Texas. A brilliant orator, Jordan delivered a statement on July 24, 1974, from her seat on the House Judiciary Committee during President Richard Nixon’s impeachment that is considered one of the most powerful speeches in U.S. history. “My faith in the Constitution is whole; it is complete; it is total,” she said. “And I am not going to sit here and be an idle spectator to the diminution, the subversion, the destruction, of the Constitution.”

After tying himself to both the state’s multicultural history and its defense of democracy through Jordan, Talarico used a different vision from Jordan to make his case for the future. He recalled that Jordan said “the soil and spirit of Texas” made her feel that she could accomplish whatever she wanted, “that there are no limits.” Talarico used Jordan’s embrace of the American dream to anchor his own new political vision for the twenty-first century.

It is a vision that resonates beyond Texas.

Talarico rooted himself firmly in Texas’s past and present. He emphasized that he is an eighth-generation Texan whose family arrived in the region when it was still Mexican. “We may not have always been wealthy or well educated,” he said, “but we always served our state.” His ancestor Elijah Stapp signed the Texas Declaration of Independence that declared the region free from Mexican president Antonio López de Santa Anna, risking everything, Talarico said, “to defy a tyrant.”

That independence cost Stapp dearly. Four months after he signed the document, Santa Anna’s army destroyed his home, leaving him, his wife, and their six children destitute. But Stapp was undeterred. He wrote to his neighbors, “Any duty that my bodily strength would enable me to perform, either in public or private, that would advance the cause of Texas, I feel anxious and ever ready to perform.”

“Texans don’t like tyrants,” Talarico said, “And we don’t surrender easily.”

Bringing that theme to the modern era, Talarico told the story of his mother, “a seventh-generation Texan from Laredo,” who left an abusive relationship to make a life with her infant son. “That’s what it means to be a Texan,” he said. “We are strivers and builders and dreamers of all colors and creeds of all backgrounds and beliefs. It’s in our blood.”

“Texas is big,” Talarico said. “Big hair, big hearts, and big dreams. Our athletes are beloved across the globe. Cowboys, Astros, Spurs. Our musicians, our musicians are so iconic, they only need one name. Willie. Selena. Beyoncé.”

“But the current political landscape is too small for Texas,” he said. “Texas used to be known for our hospitality…. Friendship across tribes, friendship across divides. That’s what makes Texas so great. We’re this big mash-up of all these different people, all these different cultures, all these different friends. Think about, think about Tejano music. If you’re listening to a Selena song, you’re hearing Spanish vocal styles from northern Mexico. But you’re also hearing polka dance rhythms from Czech and German immigrants. This uniquely…Texan ability to welcome new friends and new ideas has made us one of the most exciting and innovative states in the country.”

“We’re the state that put a man on the moon,” Talarico said. “We’re the state that pioneered ranching and energy and computers. We’re the state that gave this country Barbara Jordan, Ann Richards, LBJ, and the Great Society. We’re the state that put breakfast in a taco.”

Then Talarico turned to the present. “[T]oday, we face a new threat,” he said. “Our state is being taken over by a new kind of tyrant: billionaire megadonors. They’re not invading with an army. They’re just buying the system. The billionaires who own the social media algorithms, who own the cable news networks, who own the politicians fighting on our screens, they are turning neighbor against neighbor. Weakening that spirit of friendship that makes Texas so great. They divide us by party, by race, by gender, by religion, so we don’t notice that they’re picking our pockets. It is the oldest strategy in the world. Divide and conquer.”

“But,” he said, “Texas will not be conquered.”

Talarico accused “these new tyrants” of looking out of state “to find puppet politicians who were willing to do their bidding.” He said they picked his opponent, Ken Paxton, “the most corrupt politician in America,” who was “born in North Dakota, raised in California, and has a place in Hawaii.”

“Listen,” Talarico said, “I believe anyone can be a Texan.” That identity lives “not in the boots or in the truck,” but in people’s hearts. But the billionaires and “their puppets have the wrong state of mind. Their hearts and their dreams are just not big enough. We let these small men get their hands on our big state. You know the kind of people I’m talking about. The kind who make themselves feel big by making everyone else feel small.

“These men, they took all the money and power they could grab, and they set out to shrink Texas down to their size. They’re shrinking our Texas economy with job-killing tariffs. They are shrinking our Texas public schools with private school voucher scams. They’re shrinking our healthcare, so it covers less and less. They’re shrinking our paychecks and how much those paychecks can buy. And they’re shrinking our power by attacking our God-given rights at the ballot box and redrawing our districts to keep themselves in power. They have been shrinking Texas for three decades now. But that ends this year in this election.

“In November, we can make Texas big again,” Talarico said. “We can make Texas friendly again. We can make Texas, Texas, again. We have the chance to take back our state from those billionaire mega donors and their puppet politicians who stole it from us.”

“This isn’t a partisan thing,” Talarico said as he pointed out that Republicans and Democrats came together to impeach Paxton, and he reminded people that Sam Houston, the first president of the Texas Republic, told people to “do right, and risk the consequences.” “What would Sam Houston think about the small men who are shrinking Texas?” Talarico asked. “What would Sam Houston, who put Texas before himself, say about Ken Paxton, who puts himself before Texas? What would Sam Houston say to all of us at this critical moment in Texas history? I think he would say, do right, and risk the consequences.

“There’s an old country song by Gary P. Nunn, called ‘What I Like About Texas.’ In the song, he lists the rivers and the bluebonnets, the music and the food. But ultimately, he settles on one answer. He says it’s the spirit of the people who share this land. The spirit of Barbara Jordan. The spirit of my mom, the spirit that’s in this room. The feeling that we can accomplish whatever we want to….

“This election shouldn’t be about the Democratic Party or the Republican Party,” Talarico said. “It should be about chasing a vision of what our state can be. Texas schools that are the envy of the nation. A Texas economy that is second to none, and Texas families that are stronger and healthier than ever before. It won’t happen overnight. But a giant state deserves giant dreams. We are— We are bigger than extremism. We’re bigger than partisanship. We’re bigger than corruption. Texas is bigger than all of those things. Because it’s not just a state. It’s a state of mind….

“Texans don’t like tyrants. And we don’t surrender easily. Tonight, standing before you, to accept your nomination for the United States Senate, I make the same commitment to you that my ancestor made 200 years ago. Any duty that my bodily strength would enable me to perform, either in public or private, that would advance the cause of Texas, I feel anxious and ever ready to perform.”

Notes:

https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/impeachment/my-faith-constitution-whole-it-complete-it-total

YouTube:

watch?v=CamYITDOLDE

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Lies, Threats, and Looting

The measure of flourishing

A misty lake with a traditional pavilion set among trees, all reflected on the calm water, creating a serene scene.

Human prosperity depends on nature, but no global metric has captured this with precision. Enter the Nature Relationship Index

- by Yadvinder Malhi

Read on Aeon

Robot Police Officers

We’ve taken one small step towards robot police officers: a drone capable of disarming a suspect:

In a June 22 video posted on the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office’s Instagram page, an officer wearing goggles can be seen operating a drone to retrieve a knife from an armed suspect hiding inside a cluttered house. “After not responding to negotiators, a drone was deployed inside the residence,” the post says. “Drone pilots located the suspect hiding in a corner of a garage” and then used a high-powered magnet attached to the drone to grab the knife out of the suspect’s hand. In the video ­ which is soundtracked by the “Mission: Impossible” theme song—the intercepted knife can be seen spinning around in the air as the drone carries it back to the deputies.

Slashdot thread.

Timelapse of the Universe

Painting of a glowing sunburst through pink clouds with bokeh effect creating a dreamy, ethereal atmosphere.

When 13 billion years of the cosmos get condensed into 10 epic minutes, when in the timelapse do you think humans appear?

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Craft Prospect selected for The Sunday Times Scotland Fast 50

(Glasgow, UK) Glasgow-based space engineering company Craft Prospect has been selected for inclusion in the inaugural edition of The Sunday Times Scotland Fast 50, a new annual list recognising some […]

The post Craft Prospect selected for The Sunday Times Scotland Fast 50 appeared first on SpaceNews.

China establishes VLEO industry alliance as satellites demonstrate sustained low-orbit operations

A white solid-fueled Chinese Kinetica-1 rocket lifts off vertically from a desert launch pad, producing a large plume of bright orange flame and thick white smoke against a clear blue sky.

HELSINKI — China has established a national very low Earth orbit industry alliance, as multiple satellites demonstrate sustained operations below 300 kilometers and propulsion startups attract investment. China established a […]

The post China establishes VLEO industry alliance as satellites demonstrate sustained low-orbit operations appeared first on SpaceNews.

Will future biomedical advances be low marginal cost?

Most pharmaceuticals involve high upfront costs, to discover and test the drug, and very low marginal costs.  Another pill can be printed almost for free.

That cost structure favors health systems, such as that of Britain, that try to pay lower for services.  They can end up getting a relatively good deal from price discrimination.  After all, they can be served at low marginal cost, at least for those ttreatments.

Now imagine a biomedical future where many more treatments are based on the sequencing of your individual genome, and then the development of specific treatments personalized to you.  Obviously it will depend on developments, but very likely those remedies will have relatively high marginal costs.

In that setting the British approach to health care procurement and pricing will work less well.  It is the well-capitalized, “overspending” systems, such as the United States, that will have an easier time making the adjustment.

“The rising relative advantage of well-capitalized health care systems” is a neglected trend, because it makes a lot of earlier elite pronouncements about health care economics look a bit off.

The post Will future biomedical advances be low marginal cost? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Typewriters and fertility

Workplace technological changes were instrumental in creating new tasks for women over the last century. This paper studies the adoption of the typewriter into US workplaces. Exploiting exogenous variation in typist demand across sectors, I document that the typewriter increased women’s labor force participation, leading to lower rates of marriage and fertility. These developments stemmed from a transition of White women from households into office work and an indirect crowding-in effect drawing Black women into household services. Acting as a “meeting technology,” the typewriter reshaped social interactions, enabling White women to marry above their socioeconomic backgrounds and achieve upward mobility.

That is from a recent paper by Myera Rashid.  Via Kris Gulati.

The post Typewriters and fertility appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Gateway to the Milky Way

At first glance, it may look as though we’re about to enter the Milky Way. However, today’s Picture of the Week actually features the road sign indicating the entrance to the ALMA Observatory, in Chile’s Atacama Desert. The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), which is operated by ESO together with international partners, studies the light from the coldest corners of the Universe.

Water vapour in Earth’s atmosphere readily absorbs the millimetre and submillimetre wavelengths of radiation that ALMA observes. This is why ALMA is located in one of the driest and highest places on Earth, on the Chajnantor Plateau in the Andes, at an impressive altitude of 5000 metres.

ALMA has given us some of the most detailed images of our Milky Way, showing among other things filaments of dense clouds of gas and dust at its core. Unlike our eyes, or a camera like the one that took this photo, ALMA uses a technique called interferometry that allows us to see fine details of distant celestial objects. By combining the light captured with each of the 66 high-precision antennas in its array, ALMA works as a single telescope with a diameter equal to the farthest distance between antennas.

While not being able to physically reach the glowing band of our galaxy seen in this picture, images like the ones produced by ALMA are some of the closest "gateways” we have to admire the Milky Way and its constituents.

Star-Spangled City

2014-04-24 00:00:00
April 24, 2014

Editor’s note: In honor of America’s 250th birthday, Earth Observatory is revisiting stories about the landscapes that helped shape U.S. history. The images and text on this page were originally published on September 14, 2014. Explore the full collection here.

The song is familiar to every American, but the moment and place where it was composed are less so.

On April 24, 2014, the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 captured this view of Baltimore, Maryland, and its harbor. Fort McHenry and its star-shaped ramparts—the place where “that star-spangled banner yet wave[d],” on September 14, 1814—stand at the entrance to the city’s Inner Harbor. The area was a pivotal battleground in the War of 1812.

In September 1814, British naval and ground forces advanced on the city of Baltimore, emboldened by the August 24 burning of the White House and the Capitol building in Washington, D.C. On September 12, British forces landed at North Point, 5 miles (8 kilometers) southeast of Baltimore (just off the lower right of this image), and engaged American troops in several small battles. By September 13, the land forces approached the city of Baltimore but were repelled by U.S. Army and Maryland militia forces assembled behind a mile of earthworks and trenches along Hampstead Hill—near what is now known as Patterson Park (image top center).

On the morning of September 13, British naval vessels set up positions roughly at the point where this image is labeled Baltimore Harbor. They began a 25-hour bombardment of Fort McHenry, staying far enough offshore to hit the fort with rockets and cannonballs but out of the range of American artillery. Unable to subdue the fort, and hampered by several merchant vessels that were intentionally sunk in the harbor, the British forces ended their attack on the morning of September 14.

The Battle of Baltimore moved a young American lawyer and negotiator to write a song entitled “Defense of Fort M’Henry.” Francis Scott Key had spent the night of September 13 on a British vessel in the Patapsco River, working to secure the release of American prisoners of war. Local legend in Maryland holds that the HMS Tonnant was anchored roughly where the Key Bridge is now located, giving Key a direct view toward Fort McHenry and “the rockets’ red glare, the bombs bursting in air,” that “gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.” On September 14, a clean 30 by 42 foot American flag was raised over Fort McHenry “by the dawn’s early light.”

Key’s four-verse song was published on September 20, 1814, in the Baltimore Patriot and the Advertiser. The battle hymn was eventually renamed “The Star-Spangled Banner,” and was declared the national anthem in 1931.

Beyond its pivotal role in the War of 1812, Baltimore has long been an important seaport on the East Coast of the United States, particularly because of its proximity by road and rail to inland agricultural and industrial hubs in the Midwest. Situated on the Chesapeake Bay, the city is now home to more than 600,000 residents. According to some media reports, nearly one-quarter of the jobs in the Baltimore area are related to science, technology, engineering, or mathematics. It is home to the Space Telescope Science Institute, the operations center for the Hubble Space Telescope.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using Landsat data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Michael Carlowicz.

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Ars Live, today: The latest on the aftermath of the New Glenn catastrophe

Nearly a month has passed since the New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad in Florida, creating a massive fireball. It was likely the largest ever rocket explosion at the historic Florida spaceport, and we are still dealing with its implications today.

The rocket's explosion took out its only launch pad, LC-36A. So even if Blue Origin can quickly diagnose the cause of the failure, it has nowhere to launch the New Glenn rocket from. Company officials, including founder Jeff Bezos, have said the vehicle will return to flight at LC-36A before the end of this year, though there is widespread skepticism about that timeline.

Meanwhile, we have more questions than answers about a rocket that had become increasingly central to the needs of NASA and commercial customers. What does this failure mean for the Artemis Program to land humans on the Moon? What do we know about the timing of Artemis III and the lunar landing mission, Artemis IV? What about the Moon base?

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Although they look like cotton candy, you cannot eat these clouds! Taken in Although they look like cotton candy, you cannot eat these clouds! Taken in


Auth.md — an Open Protocol for Agent Registration From WorkOS

My thanks to WorkOS for sponsoring DF last week to promote Auth.md, their new open protocol for AI agent registration. (Who’d have thunk that I’d be getting paid to promote new uses for Markdown 22 years after releasing it?)

Sign-up forms were built for humans in browsers, so how do AI agents programmatically register with services? That’s the question Auth.md aims to answer. It’s a single Markdown file you host at your domain that tells agents how to register your users, which flows you support, what scopes you expose, and how credentials get issued. It’s like robots.txt but for agent registration.

Cloudflare, Firecrawl, and Resend have already adopted it.

An open protocol authored by WorkOS. Read the spec.

 ★