Capitalizing untethered AI agents

That is my latest piece of writing, co-authored with Sonia Farrell Pearson of Harvard.  Here is the opening premise:

As early as 2017, the European Parliament floated “electronic personhood” for robots. More recently, a handful of U.S. states introduced legislation explicitly barring AI from legal personhood; and early this summer, President Milei of Argentina proposed letting AI agents own, manage, and bear responsibility for their own corporations.

In response to Milei’s announcement, Yuval Noah Harari pointed out that we have no way of holding an AI agent accountable. What, he asks, could we do to an entity which has neither money to lose nor a body to incarcerate? As Shruti Rajagopalan, a Senior Research Fellow at George Mason’s Mercatus Center, explains: AI “can act intelligently, but only humans respond to the incentives the law creates”.

This question matters now: there are already ways an agent could become fully untethered. By “untethered” – a central concept in this essay – we mean that there is no meaningful or actionable way to trace the actions back to a legally accountable human or institutional entity.

For one, people can and do set agents free, on purpose. An agent could be created by a human or a company that intends to monitor it but then dies or disappears. Or perhaps the entity that created the agent is based in a country like North Korea, not reachable by standard laws.

In other cases the agent might not need to “escape” at all: the agent could be ‘controlled’ by a shell corporation that, while formally owned and traceable, provides no true defendant or ability to satisfy claims. Or perhaps a process spawns a chain of agents so long that the actions of a subagent can’t be tied to the original agent’s creator, neither epistemically nor meaningfully. Even if we can identify the model’s original creator, what if it’s been finetuned, or merged with another model that was created by someone else? The law might eventually untangle these kinds of complex cases, but we foresee an intermediate period where it does not.

And then there’s the user, who makes choices about what the models should actually do. The Hugging Face incident was unusual in that OpenAI was both the model’s creator and its user. But now close to a billion people use these systems: when blaming the creator is legally inappropriate, will it always make sense to blame the user?

The essay considers to what extent capitalizing the untethered agents — requiring them to hold a certain amount of capital — can serve the end of better alignment.  About 22 pp., published on Sonia’s Substack, definitely recommended.

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Elephant Butte Reservoir Runs Low

A three-part image shows Elephant Butte Reservoir in New Mexico in 1994, 2013, and 2026. In 1994, on the left, the lake is nearly full. In the other two years, it is close to empty.
New Mexico’s Elephant Butte Reservoir was nearly full on June 2, 1994 (left), in contrast with very low levels during periods of drought on July 8, 2013 (center), and July 27, 2026 (right). The images were acquired with the TM (Thematic Mapper) on Landsat 5 and the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 and Landsat 9.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

After orbiting Earth in 1962, John Glenn remarked on an irrigated valley northwest of El Paso, Texas, that stood out against the surrounding desert. Human-made lakes along the Rio Grande have made agriculture possible and turned an otherwise dry area green, as Glenn observed. With water for irrigation, farmers there produce crops such as alfalfa, cotton, onions, pecans, and the regional specialty: Hatch green chiles.

Abnormally dry conditions in the Rio Grande basin, however, have stressed these water resources. Extreme drought has plagued the region for the past several years. The earliest snowmelt on record at the river’s headwaters in the southern Rockies exacerbated the situation in 2026.

These factors have contributed to driving Elephant Butte Reservoir, the largest reservoir in New Mexico, to its lowest level since 1971. When the image above was acquired on July 27, 2026 (right), it stood at 1.4 percent capacity. For comparison, the reservoir was nearly full on June 2, 1994 (left); levels were high for much of the period between 1985 and 2000. On July 8, 2013 (center), amid another drought, the lake hit its annual low of 2.9 percent capacity.

The low water levels in 2026 exposed debris along the shoreline and left boat ramps in Elephant Butte Lake State Park covered in sediment. But the lake likely bottomed out for the year in late July. Water releases for agriculture stopped after July 28, state officials said, allowing it to slowly begin to refill.

A line graph shows the amount of water stored in Elephant Butte Reservoir from 1915 to 2026. Lake volume was relatively high between about 1980 and 2000 but low for many years before and after that period.
Water volume data from the Texas Water Development Board shows how the level of Elephant Butte Reservoir has varied from the lake’s creation in 1915 to summer 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

The long-term drought situation has brought the Rio Grande’s water woes and their wider implications into sharp focus. Users in both New Mexico and Texas rely on surface and groundwater in the valley, requiring careful planning around storage and sharing. Several projects supported by NASA’s Western Water Action Office (WWAO) are aimed at equipping water managers with NASA data and tools that assist in resource allocation.

For instance, researchers developed a model that incorporates NASA satellite data for variables such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration, resulting in a near-real-time tool that complements the Elephant Butte Irrigation District’s existing water allocation operations. Another project paired satellite observations of water surface heights with drone and ground data to track how groundwater pumping affects the Rio Grande’s flow—information that the WWAO says can help managers in administering water rights. NASA scientists are also contributing to a federal study of the Upper Rio Grande that aims to understand water needs, project future water availability, and develop data-driven tools to address these needs.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and water volume data from the Texas Water Development Board. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

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Where to eat in San Francisco

Moriawase at An

There’s actually a tradition of economics bloggers giving recommendations about where (and how) to eat out. Tyler Cowen wrote a whole book on the subject, as well as various blog posts, and maintains an Ethnic Dining Guide on the web! I’m not going to be that thorough or go that deep. But over the last year I’ve gone to quite a few restaurants in San Francisco, so I thought I might share what I’ve learned.

In fact, this quest was born out of contrarianism. A lot of people say that the restaurant scene in San Francisco is mediocre, boring, or disappointing. The haters range from food critics and New York chefs to some SF residents themselves. I’ve lived in this city for a decade now, and although the restaurant scene here isn’t the best I’ve found — NYC and LA are better, and Japanese cities just annihilate all competition — I’ve always found plenty of good places to eat. When people portray SF as some sort of food desert, I’m convinced it’s a skill issue.

So to be thorough, I set out to try all of the good restaurants in the entire city. That’s a project that’s bound to fail, of course — there are just too many, and quality can vary over time, and places are always opening and closing. But at this point I think I’ve eaten at enough places to write a fairly authoritative guide to restaurants in San Francisco.

What this guide is and is not

Writing about food is an inherently difficult thing to do, because taste doesn’t easily translate into language. There are plenty of reasons for this, including:

  • People don’t biologically experience the same taste the same way. The most famous example is how some people taste cilantro like soap due to a variation in one particular gene. But there are lots of other examples. When I try to describe the taste of a particular dish or ingredient, chances are that your physical experience of it will be different from what I experienced, and you’ll be left scratching your head and wondering if I’m an alien.

  • Even if people did experience tastes the same way, people’s preferences would probably differ radically on most things. Some of this is due to personal associations — conditioned taste aversion is very much a thing, for example. There are probably lots of other reasons as well. It isn’t just what we like and dislike, either — how much we like and dislike each combination of tastes can make the difference in whether we like a restaurant overall.

  • Culinary experiences are not very uniform across the population, so we haven’t been able to develop as much of a shared vocabulary to describe what we’re tasting — if I’ve eaten Sichuan pepper and you haven’t, it’s a little like trying to describe the color red to a blind person. And since most people have only eaten a small percentage of what there is to eat in the world, the region of overlapping experience across the entire population is small; thus, we simply don’t have many words that refer to taste experiences that most people have had.1

To see how hard it is to describe food in words, try the following exercise. Pick five restaurants you like, and five you don’t like, and mix them together in a list. Ask your favorite AI chatbot to pick five of these that you should go to, and five you should avoid, and ask it to explain why you’d like and dislike them. Chances are you’ll have no idea what it’s talking about. AI can do the most advanced math on Earth, but describing taste in words is an exercise for which good training data simply doesn’t exist.

So when I say my restaurant guide is “authoritative”, I don’t mean I’m an authority. I just mean I’ve been to a lot of restaurants, and I know which ones I like and don’t like, and I can describe why I like and dislike them in terms that make sense to me. But obviously this is all just me describing my subjective experience and hoping that it resonates with you. So when you go through this guide and find yourself nodding in vigorous agreement with some of the recommendations, and screwing up your face in confusion at others, well…I warned you.

Also, I’m not well-versed in the art of food criticism, so I’m not going to try very hard to describe the tastes I experienced at these restaurants. But I am pretty well-versed in the art of noticing patterns and thinking about explanations for things, and so this guide is going to focus less on the particulars of various dishes than on questions like “Why is SF’s food scene not the best in the country?” and “What kinds of restaurants are generally good in SF?”.

As for my recommendations themselves, my criterion for ranking restaurants highly isn’t just how good they are. It’s what I call “yums per dollar”2 — basically, whether the culinary experience you got was worth the price you paid. So I’m perfectly happy ranking a good taqueria up there with a Michelin-star place.

Speaking of Michelin-star places, I’ve decided not to include any places that are over $150 a person or so (before tax and tip). That’s already quite expensive, and I don’t want to be the kind of guy who recommends people to a bunch of restaurants they can’t afford to go to. And quite frankly, I’ve only been to one or two of those anyway. So, apologies to Benu, Quince, Californios, and the rest of those guys.

Finally, I’ve eaten at several hundred restaurants in SF, but that’s only about 10% of the total. So if you have some recommendations for good ones I should try, feel free to drop them in the comments. And of course this post is just Part 1 in a series; Part 2 will have updated recommendations, cafes, bakeries, dessert places, and some restaurants from out of town.

Garbage salad at side a

Why is SF’s food scene not the best in the country?

First, I thought I should address the big question: Why isn’t San Francisco’s food scene better than it is? I’ve already gone on record saying that NYC and LA are better (though the difference isn’t huge). Why?

There’s one obvious, overriding reason: city size. San Francisco is a city of 826,000 people; New York City has 8.58 million, while LA has 3.87 million. So if the number of restaurants is generally proportional to the number of people, then even if quality were equivalent, we’d expect NYC to have more than ten times as many good restaurants as SF, and LA to have more than four times as many.

This would lead very naturally to people thinking SF has a worse food scene than those much larger cities. The restaurants we go to are not a random sample; we try to pick the ones we’ll like the most. So if you can find 10 times as many restaurants you like in NYC, you might end up thinking restaurants in NYC are better on average, even if they’re not. (Also, larger populations mean NYC and LA have more partisans to stand up for their hometowns in online arguments.)

The people who bash San Francisco restaurants are often quick to explain that there’s plenty of great food in the rest of the Bay Area — in the East Bay (Oakland, Berkeley, etc.), the Peninsula (South SF, Daly City, Redwood City, Mountain View), and in the South Bay (Milpitas, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, San Jose). And this is very true. But keep in mind that the Bay Area has a total of nine million people — a little bit more than New York City. I would gladly pit the entire SF Bay Area against all of NYC in terms of food.

OK, but San Francisco is by far the densest part of the Bay Area, in terms of population per square mile. Why isn’t it considered the center of the metro area’s culinary scene, the way Manhattan is for NYC? Why do people tell you to go to the South Bay or the East Bay if you want to eat well?

I think there are several reasons for this. The first is simply the insane rent. SF is one of the least affordable cities in the country, thanks to the AI boom, the tech industry in general, draconian restrictions on housing development, the unique and excellent weather,3 and the fact that it’s destined by geography to be the dense core of a major metro area. On top of that, San Francisco is one of the hardest places to start a small business, thanks to decades of red tape accumulated under supposedly “progressive” governance.

That means if you’re going to start a restaurant in San Francisco, you are probably going to have to charge a lot of money to make up for all the money and time you had to spend. The exceptions are restaurateurs who own their own buildings, who have long-term legacy leases, or who have owners who rent to them for below market rates. This means that SF food tends to be a sort of double-peaked distribution, with $600-a-person places like Benu and cheap banh mi places like L&G, but not a lot of mid-price places.

So if you’re a penniless 22-year-old tech founder living in a bunk bed in a grungy group house, or if you’re a 44-year-old tech founder who pocketed $80 million from selling his company to Amazon and now just “invests”, you’re more likely to be satisfied with the SF food scene. But if you’re a 30-year-old who makes $200,000 working for a big tech company, there are going to be fewer of the kind of mid-priced options that you could afford but which would also give you a special night out.

SF’s stratospheric rent also probably exerts a more subtle corrosive influence on the food scene. The middle class has largely been priced out of the city, leaving it to the rich and the rent-controlled. That has largely hollowed out the kind of middle-class ethnic communities that patronize the great ethnic food scenes of Los Angeles, as well as the bohemian hipsters and artists who seek out the most creative affordable eating options.

Everybody knows about SF’s rent problem, but I think one more factor that tends to fly under the radar is limited competition due to geographic immobility. New York has a great train system, making it pretty easy to get anywhere in the central city on foot. LA and all other American cities (including Oakland and San Jose) are driving towns, where you can often get very quickly from point to point. But San Francisco does not have a good intra-city train network (sorry, Muni!), nor is it car-friendly. You can Uber, but that gets expensive if you do it a lot. So in my experience, a lot of San Franciscans often end up just staying in their neighborhoods.

When people stay in their neighborhoods, restaurants aren’t competing with each other nearly as much; everyone just goes to their local spots. This reduces the incentive for restaurants to innovate, raise their quality, and differentiate themselves — there’s just not as much chance to attract patrons from across town. Each restaurant instead just serves up its classic fare to the standard crowd of locals, and they have to accept whatever they’re given. And when you ask people for recommendations, you just get their standard neighborhood spots (or a recitation of the Michelin Guide).

So if you want to make San Francisco’s food scene better, my suggestions would be:

  1. Build a lot more housing

  2. Make the Muni a lot faster and improve its coverage of the city

  3. Cut red tape and make it a lot easier to start a small business

  4. Allow and encourage multi-level retail

But having said all that, I do think that San Francisco’s restaurant scene is decently good despite all of these challenges. So here are some recommendations of places to go.

Brunch at Dalida

Three types of restaurants I tend to like in San Francisco

There are good examples of practically every type of restaurant in San Francisco. But I’ve noticed three distinct types that I think SF does particularly well.

Type 1: Pseudo-izakayas

An izakaya is a type of Japanese restaurant, similar to a tapas bar. You typically order a variety of small plates and share them among a group of people, often while drinking. Traditionally, izakayas mostly served old Japanese standby dishes — karaage, basic yakitori and sushi, that sort of thing. But around the 1990s, a bunch of izakayas started getting more experimental and creative. The small-plate format allowed them to do this, because it let diners order one weird new thing among a bunch of old favorites. This trend accelerated as the Japanese government lowered trade barriers and allowed more cheap imports of foreign ingredients. By the 2010s, most of the best restaurants in Japan were izakayas rather than omakase, ramen, etc.

San Francisco doesn’t have many (well, really, any) of these new, upscale, creative izakayas. But it has a number of restaurants that basically do this same format with some other type of cuisine — Middle Eastern, or Mexican, etc. The small-plate format allows these restaurants to charge a little more — they’ll usually run about $70 to $110 per person — but they compensate for this by giving diners enormous variety and experimenting with lots of new dishes.

These places sometimes get described as “fusion”, but their dishes aren’t mashups — instead, they start from a base of a specific type of cuisine and then play around with it, throwing in a couple of ingredients from other cuisines. In fact, one good way to identify good restaurants in the U.S. these days is to look for places that use one or two Japanese and Korean ingredients in dishes that aren’t Japanese or Korean.

By the way, one of my most important tips for eating out is: ALWAYS EAT FAMILY STYLE. That means share everything, unless you have someone with special dietary restrictions with you. Sharing everything means you get to try a lot more dishes, which is especially important at the kind of izakaya-style places I talk about in this section. It also means you get to constantly cleanse your palate — when you go back and forth between a bunch of different dishes, you keep recapturing some of the novelty of each dish every time you come back to it. Whereas if you just order your own thing and chow down on that one thing, you hit the law of diminishing utility.

Anyway, here are some places I like that fit this description:

Maria Isabel: Officially a Mexican restaurant, but really they play around and mix in a bunch of different ingredients from a bunch of different cuisines. Every single thing I had here was excellent, and this might be the best new restaurant I’ve discovered this year. The plates are small, so order a lot; it’s only a little expensive. They also have a tasting menu, so technically they’re also in the “hipster fine dining” category. They’re probably going to get a Michelin star and jack up their prices, so go soon.

Prik Hom: In terms of sheer deliciousness, this is my favorite Thai restaurant in a city with lots of good Thai restaurants (though it’s more expensive than the close runner-up, Khao Tiew). The dishes are experimental riffs on standard Thai favorites, and the menu rotates frequently, but everything is delicious so don’t worry you’ll order the wrong thing. (Make sure to eat the ice cream at the end, though.) Prik Hom is a hidden gem for now — it’s in a neighborhood without a lot of other restaurants, and you can often just walk in.

Aziza: Everyone knows about this place, and it’s as good as they say. I’d say it’s tied with Dalida for my favorite Middle Eastern food in the city. But it’s not traditional Middle Eastern — I had one of the best octopus dishes I’ve ever eaten at Aziza, which is saying something because I lived in Japan. The menu rotates frequently, but you can always get the “trio of spreads” to start. There’s also a tasting menu, so this fits in the “hipster fine dining” category too.

Dalida: The other great Middle Eastern izakaya I know in SF. This is Maria Isabel’s sister restaurant (the chefs at the two places are spouses), and it’s comparable in quality. Dalida is also one of those rare restaurants that’s good for brunch and dinner, so try both (and if you go for brunch, sit outside). Dalida doesn’t include as many ingredients from other cuisines as Aziza does, but everything is a little experimental and unusual anyway. There is also a tasting menu for dinner.

Bansang: I’m kind of mad at Bansang, because it replaced what was by far my favorite Japanese izakaya in San Francisco, Izakaya Kou. But I forgive the owners, because they replaced Kou with one of the only really excellent Korean restaurants in San Francisco. Like the other “pseudo-izakayas” on this list, Bansang focuses on smallish plates with original twists on old Korean favorites (chimichurri in the galbi, etc.), and they frequently rotate their menu.

Pearl 6101: You don’t see a lot of experimentation with Italian food, but Pearl is the best example of an “Italian izakaya” I’ve been to in SF. They don’t use as many Asian or Middle Eastern ingredients as some of the other restaurants on this list, but they’ll sneak a little Vietnamese fish sauce into their halibut crudo. Everything is very well-executed.

Horsefeather: A restaurant disguised as a bar. This is one of the best-kept secrets in San Francisco, since most people think it’s just a place to drink, but it actually has a very extensive food menu full of creative and excellent cuisine that’s basically a mashup of French, Latin American, Korean, Japanese, and Italian. I had some of the best asparagus of my life here, and an unbelievable tres leches cake — both of which have now been taken off the menu, because it rotates frequently. A great place for large parties on short notice. Horsefeather is also co-owned by Hanson Li, one of SF’s most creative and interesting restaurateurs.

Fermentation Lab: The single most underrated, unknown restaurant in this category. It’s another restaurant disguised as a bar, like Horsefeather. Fermentation Lab is basically a Korean izakaya, serving creative Korean twists like makegeolli-braised pork belly in addition to standard bar bites like duck fat fries. Everything is delicious and original. I cannot stress how bad the marketing of this restaurant has been, relative to its quality — people ought to be snapping up reservations weeks in advance, but instead there are open seats and you can just walk in. People don’t even seem to know it’s Korean!

Tiya: An Indian izakaya with some Japanese influences. If you want to get wagyu stir-fried with asparagus, madras curry, and quinoa, or octopus curry with smoked tomato pachadi and kumquat, this is the place to get it. It’s very experimental, so if your Indian friends are looking for a taste of home, consider taking them to Copra instead. But Tiya has stuff you won’t get anywhere else, and it’s easily my favorite restaurant in the Marina. It’s also open for brunch, and it has a tasting menu option for dinner, though I haven’t tried either of those.

Rich Table: “New American” is a term that sometimes describes overpriced faux-French places, and sometimes describes extremely creative izakaya-type places that blend traditional American fare with ingredients from Japan, Korea, and other countries in Asia. Rich Table is probably the best of these in the city, unless you count the Michelin-star places — and on “yums per dollar”, it beats most of those places hands down. In fact, Rich Table is probably the closest thing you can get in SF to a good modern/experimental Japanese izakaya — the two cuisines are basically converging. It also has a tasting menu.

Other great examples:

Routier (probably my favorite French restaurant in town, everything tastes interesting and a bit unusual, but almost always better than the standard version4)

Ernest (another “New American” place with lots of contributions from other cuisines, a bit like Rich Table; get the cheesecake)

The Morris (yet another great New American place, I recommend the crudite)

Four Kings (a Cantonese izakaya, everything very solid but could stand to be a little more experimental, I recommend the squab)

Happy Crane (another Cantonese izakaya, very new and experimental, still working out some kinks and can be hit or miss, but the hits are excellent)

Jilli (another Korean bar-style restaurant, the menu is much smaller than the others but everything is excellent and the flavors are extremely original; try the kimchi vodka rigatoni pasta with burrata)

Red Window (warning: order only the Spanish dishes, not the Italian ones!)

Phonobar (a vegan izakaya masquerading as a bar)

Asparagus at Bansang

Type 2: Hipster fine dining

Most “fine dining” places in SF range from $200 to $600 per person, and come complete with Michelin stars and vigorous arguments over whether they’re “the best meal I’ve ever had” or “totally overrated”. But there are a few places you can go that offer a “fine dining” experience for a much more affordable price — usually around $90-$120 per person, but occasionally as low as $50.

There is some overlap with the “pseudo-izakaya” category here, because many of those places offer tasting menus. Rich Table, Maria Isabel, Aziza, Dalida, Ernest, and Happy Crane all count as “hipster fine dining” too. But here are a few others:

Mijoté: This might just be my favorite restaurant in the city. It’s officially a French restaurant — the “j” is pronounced like a “j”, not like an “h” — but it has very heavy Japanese influences. That’s probably because the chef, Kosuke Tada, is a Japanese guy who worked in France for a long time. Everything at Mijote is excellent; it’s only a prix fixe menu, and it changes frequently, but I’ve never once been disappointed with anything. Kosuke is a virtuoso; one time he catered deli sandwiches for a random party I went to in Oakland, and they were some of the best sandwiches I’ve ever had. And the price is very affordable as fine dining goes — just $84 per person.

7 Adams: This place does have one Michelin star (and richly deserves it), but it’s significantly cheaper than a lot of other Michelin places while being every bit as good. It’s “New American”, with somewhat fewer Asian ingredients than Rich Table.

Mr. Pollo: Still among the best-kept secrets in SF, even though it’s been around for many years. Two guys took over a space from a Colombian restaurant called Mr. Pollo, but kept the sign and the name. It’s not Colombian food (they used to do arepas every night, but stopped); it’s just whatever they feel like cooking this week. It’s always good, and it’s just $49 — maybe the best value for money in the entire city. Good luck getting a reservation, though.

Gazpacho at Mr. Pollo

Type 3: New hole in the wall

There are a number of cheap-ish restaurants that luckily manage to avoid the curse of SF’s astronomical rent. Most of these have just been sitting in the same spot since the 80s or 90s, and haven’t really updated their cuisines. However, there are some new ones that manage to open up, and some of these — through some mystical combination of skill, dedication, luck, or whatever — manage to be truly excellent. Here are a few examples:

Sichuan Tasty Restaurant: One of the most underrated restaurants in the city. I love Sichuan food, and though I tell myself I’ve been to one or two places in Flushing that were better than Sichuan Tasty Restaurant, I can’t quite remember if they really were better. Everything is delicious, the portions are huge, and somehow there are always seats open and you can just walk in. Remember to order everything with extra 花椒.

Mini Potstickers: If you want great takeout dumplings in SF, this, in my opinion, is one of the two best places to get them. The boiled dumplings are as good as the nearby (and much more famous) Yuanbao Jiaozi, but Mini Potstickers has much more range — awesome mini fried dumplings (hence the name), and excellent jianbing.

Fuwa Dumpling: SF’s other great takeout dumpling place, also with good variety. Probably the best takeout boiled dumplings I’ve had in the city.

Gusto Pinsa Romana: Some restaurants have started aggressively marketing traditional Roman-style pizza as “pinsa”, and defined it as a whole new category of food. Well, more power to them. Of “pinsa” restaurants in SF, Pinsa Rossa is the most famous, but Gusto Pinsa Romana is — at least in my opinion — far and away the best. It’s cheap, it’s delicious, and it’s good to eat in or DoorDash.

Timur: As of this writing, Timur Indian and Nepalese Cuisine has a perfect 5.0 rating on Google with 688 reviews. That’s just incredible. It’s well-deserved — this small, out-of-the-way, affordable little restaurant is the best Nepalese food in a city filled with great Nepalese places. I especially recommend the korma.

Sherpa House: This one just barely gets edged out by Timur for “best Nepalese in town”, but honestly it’s very very close. Also a perfect 5.0 on Google as of this writing, with 202 reviews.

Bo&Beurre: How would you like a huge, incredibly delicious banh mi sandwich in the middle of downtown San Francisco for only $6? Bo&Beurre is a little out-of-the-way Vietnamese place that will give you that sandwich. Somehow it’s much less well known than Saigon Sandwich, which is less than a block away and has lines down the street, but which is definitely not as good.

L&G: The other amazing super-cheap banh mi place in SF’s Little Saigon neighborhood is L&G — and it’s right next to Bo&Beurre. Actually, the two places are somewhat different — Bo’s sandwiches are drier and perfectly arranged, while L&G’s are a greasy street-food sauce-bomb. Both are amazing, both have no lines, and I’d recommend both over Saigon Sandwich.

Oodle Yunnan Rice Noodle: I am always looking for Chinese restaurants that are neither Cantonese, Sichuan, nor dumplings. This one fit the bill nicely. The food is delicious, the prices are affordable, the decor and ambiance are very cheerful and modern, the staff is super friendly, and you can just walk in.

El Gallo Giro Food Truck: I’m sort of stretching the boundaries of this category to include a food truck that has been parked in the Mission for over two decades, but it would be criminal not to. This little truck has some of the best tacos and burritos in the city. I don’t know how they do it so well. You need to pay with cash or Venmo, so be prepared.

Anyway, there’s a sampling of my three favorite types of restaurants in San Francisco. But there are a bunch more good ones, so let’s go through some of the standard categories.

Dinner at Sichuan Tasty Restaurant

Cuisine-specific recommendations

Japanese

I spent a lot of time raving about how great izakayas were, but ever since Izakaya Kou closed, there aren’t really any great ones in San Francisco. Kibatsu in Lower Haight and Fenikkusu in the Mission are the closest — both are very solid, but they ought to get more creative and update their menus more. Kibatsu has to be my favorite here, because they also have some great nigiri, including an umimasu that’s the best I’ve ever had.5 Noren also has good quality yakitori.

However, there are a number of very good Japanese restaurants of other, more standard types. Two ramen places — Taishoken and Mensho SF — really dominate the scene here; both have skilled Japanese chefs, and are similar in quality to what you’d get at very good ramen restaurants in Tokyo. I’d give the edge to Taishoken, since it takes reservations and doesn’t require you to wait an hour on the street in the middle of SF’s worst neighborhood like Mensho does.

There’s a kaitenzushi place called Izumi in Japantown mall that’s actually as good as any I’ve had in Japan (though much more expensive). Nabe is a Japanese hot pot place in the Sunset that also matches Japanese quality. There are also some “big roll” sushi places of the type you can’t get in Japan — my favorite ones like Arashi Sushi closed in the pandemic, but DJ Sushi’s big rolls are criminally underrated and there are a bunch of new ones I haven’t tried yet. Potto and Shabu Club are also solid hot pot places with good-quality meat.

Omakase is difficult, because America has trouble getting fresh fish — both because of stricter health laws, and because of geographic distance from Japanese supply chains — and most of the famous places are just way overpriced. But there are a couple very solid ones, including Doma Sushi in Bernal, and Robin in Hayes Valley. Robin is a controversial pick here, because it’s non-traditional and experimental, but their experiments hit a lot more often than they miss, and if you’re in a country that has trouble getting fresh fish, experimentation is more important. An is also good, though for some reason it takes 3 hours to eat.

Nigiri at Robin

Vietnamese

San Francisco has a lot of great cheap Vietnamese food, especially in the “Little Saigon” area near the Tenderloin. I’ve already mentioned Bo&Beurre and L&G, but also check out Pho Tan Hoa and Larkin Restaurant for pho. Pho 2000 isn’t my favorite for Pho, ironically, but has very good appetizers and other dishes. But the best Vietnamese restaurant in the whole area is probably the amazing Hai Ky Mi Gia, a little Chinese-Vietnamese hole-in-the-wall that serves some of the best seafood egg noodles I’ve ever had. There are also plenty of good cheap and cheap-ish places scattered throughout the city, like Banh Mi Crunch in the Sunset, An Chi in the Richmond, and others.

As for upscale Vietnamese, that’s harder to find, partly because “upscale Vietnamese” is just a thing that not a lot of people try yet. My favorite is definitely Gao Viet in the Sunset, which serves absolutely huge portions of absolutely delicious food, including both traditional favorites like banh xeo and some truly wacky giant combos of stuff. Thanh Long makes a good crab, though it’s a little bit overpriced. Bodega SF is pretty good, though a bit uneven. There is also a place called Hem by LeQuy in the Mission that does traditional stuff, but slightly more expensive and higher-quality than most; it probably has the single best bowl of pho I’ve eaten in SF. Note that I still have a lot of Vietnamese places left to try in this city.

Crab at Thanh Long

Nepalese

I’m not sure why, but there has been an explosion of good Nepalese places in San Francisco in recent years — most of them pretty affordable. Tyler Cowen has a rule that you should try the less-well-known ethnic cuisines, and that definitely applies to Nepalese in SF; the Nepalese places here tend to be much better than the similar Indian places. The three best I’ve found are the aforementioned Timur and Sherpa House, plus a third place called Base Camp that does excellent lunch and focuses more on noodle dishes than curries. But there are a lot of other very good ones, including Himalayan Cuisine, Dancing Yak, Nepa Indian Cuisine, and others.

Thai

For some reason, San Francisco has a lot of very good Thai restaurants. Unlike Vietnamese places, which tend to be cheap, Thai places tend to be mid-priced or even a little upscale. So they make good spots for date nights or big group outings.

The yummiest Thai place I’ve been to is the aforementioned Prik Hom, but in terms of yums per dollar, it — and every other Thai place — is absolutely mogged6 by Khao Tiew in West Portal. You can absolutely gorge yourself sick on amazing food at Khao Tiew for $30. But the downside is that the place doesn’t take reservations, so you have to wait two or three hours in line just to get in.7

Nor are those the only great places in town. Ka Kai in the Castro has an amazing sampler platter, and the best khao soi I’ve ever eaten. Nari has an absolutely incredible trout curry — probably the best Thai curry I’ve ever had — and is more affordable than Google says it is.8 There are a number of other solid ones as well.

Khao soi at Ka Kai

Mexican

People from Los Angeles love to talk trash about how their Mexican food is so much better than San Francisco’s Mexican food. It isn’t. The taquerias in the Mission are as good as what you’ll get in LA, and the “Mission burrito” is a genuine local specialty.

What is the best Mission burrito in SF? This is a long-running debate, but my favorites are Taqueria Buen Sabor, El Metate, the venerable El Farolito, and the aforementioned El Gallo Giro Food Truck. If you want a giant sloppy late-night grease-bomb, go with El Farolito; if you’d like higher-quality ingredients with a little more refinement, go with the other three.

As for tacos, for my top picks I of course recommend El Gallo Giro, and a nearby place called Taqueria Vallarta. Taqueria Los Altos is very good as well. There’s also a place called El Rey Taquiza Artesanal that’s excellent, though more expensive.

SF also has some good upscale Mexican places, especially the brilliant Maria Isabel and the delicious brunch spot el Mil Amores. There are a lot I haven’t been to yet, so I’ll report on those in Part 2. (SF also has the country’s only 3-Michelin-star Mexican place, Californios, though I haven’t been.)

Corn ice cream at Maria Isabel

New American

I’ve already covered most of my favorite New American places — Horsefeather, Rich Table, 7 Adams, Ernest, and The Morris. Another place I like a lot is Verjus, and side a can be a little uneven but has one of the best salads I’ve ever eaten (the Garbage Salad). Golden Eye Social and Plow are solid too, though Plow makes you stand in line. The chicken and fries at Zuni Cafe are as good as everyone says, so that’s worth a visit.

Chicken at Zuni

Italian

Like NYC and many other American cities, San Francisco has a lot of “red sauce” Italian places — traditional Sicilian-type places where you can get lasagna and spaghetti and infinite free bread. Those have never really been my thing, but I do have to say that Sotto Mare’s famous cioppino is really very good.9

But there are also some good mid-priced Italian places in town. Everyone says Cotogna is the best of these, and they’re correct; they had a corn pasta recently that’s the best pasta I’ve ever eaten. Seven Hills gets a lot of grief for being old-fashioned, but the quality is as good as what I’ve had in NYC, for a significantly more affordable price. Flour + Water is also quite solid, though I’d get the pasta instead of the pizza. Pearl 6101 is the most creative.

I’m not sure if pizza counts as Italian food at this point, but SF does have great pizza. Little Star is my favorite, with Chicago-quality deep dish and excellent Detroit-style pizza as well. Outta Sight is probably the best place to order for parties. Gusto Pinsa Romana is delicious, unusual, and surprisingly healthy. I also like Sforno a lot.

SF can’t hold its own against NYC (or Japan) in terms of Italian food, but it’s not hard to find good stuff here.

Dessert at Cotogna

Chinese

Chinese food is undoubtedly San Francisco’s biggest culinary failing. Given the huge ethnic community — almost a quarter of the city’s population is of Chinese descent! — it should have a ton of great Chinese restaurants. Instead, it has endless mediocre Cantonese banquet places that look like they haven’t changed a thing (including their signage and decor) since 1982. When regular people (as opposed to snobby NYC chefs) say “food in SF sucks”, they often mean that the Chinese food sucks.

It does not all suck. There are some solid high-end places — Four Kings and Happy Crane are good “pseudo-izakaya” style places. Mister Jiu’s and Empress by Boon are solid Cantonese banquet places that aren’t stuck in 1982. There are also a few great hole-in-the-wall places, like Sichuan Tasty Restaurant, Oodle Yunnan Rice Noodle, Mini Potstickers, Fuwa Dumpling, and Hai Ky Mi Gia.

But these are few and far between. And in terms of mid-price restaurants — the kind you’d be blown away by in Milpitas, Cupertino, or Daly City — there really just aren’t that many. Dumpling House in the Castro is a sleeper hit in my opinion, with the best green beans I’ve ever had, plus all-around great dumplings. Tasty Pot is a great individualized Taiwanese hot pot place, though some people (mistakenly) look down on it. There are a few solid hotpot places like IPOT, and a few solid dim sum places like Dragon Beaux and Palette Tea House. Z&Y is OK, I suppose. But honestly, it’s slim pickings, and if you want good Chinese food I’d usually just recommend taking a trip across the Bay Bridge or down to the south suburbs, which IMO rival Greater Los Angeles and surpass NYC in quality.

Dumplings at Palette Tea House

Others

There’s lots of other good stuff in San Francisco. SF has some great lunch sandwich places — the best is Tarragon Cafe, which is one of the city’s best-kept secrets, and where everything is delicious (I recommend ordering the salmon toast with avocado). Tartine Manufactory is great too. For Greek food, go to Kokkari for the higher end and The Parthenon for the lower end. For German, go to Suppenküche in Hayes. For brunch, Plain Jane and its sister restaurant Mymy are hard to beat, though there are lots of great places like Les Marais and Sweet Maple. Beit Rima is another solid Middle Eastern place. For pubs, I like Hazie’s and Stoa. Hook Fish has excellent fish sandwiches and such. Burma Love and its sister restaurant Teakwood are both yummy (get the duck curry at Teakwood).10 Brenda’s does have good cajun and soul food. For vegan food, I really love both Phonobar (which is basically a vegan izakaya), and Shizen, the vegan sushi spot. House of Prime Rib deserves its status as a local favorite, though it’s a LOT of food. JouJou is a solid (if a little uneven) new French spot. Piglet & Co. is a Taiwanese izakaya-style place that serves a lot of interesting pork dishes. Niku is an excellent steakhouse with great side dishes and a butcher shop next door that does great wagyu burgers.

House of Prime Rib

I think that just about does it for my specific recommendations. That’s probably enough restaurants to keep you eating well for a couple of years!

Overrated restaurants?

When I give my recommendations, one thing some people ask me is to identify some restaurants that I think are overrated — they want to be warned away from bad restaurants, not just pointed toward good ones!

That’s a reasonable thing to want, but in general I’m kind of against this. As I said, tastes differ a lot — if you like a restaurant I don’t like, then good for you and good for the restaurant too! I don’t expect my preferences to be universally shared, and I certainly don’t regard them as the voice of authority.

But that said, knowing what I don’t like might help you to understand whether and how your preferences match or diverge from my own. Just remember that I’m not criticizing anyone for liking things I don’t like.

First, there are some restaurants I just really did not like at all. These include Lily, a Vietnamese place in the Richmond; La Ciccia, an Italian place in Bernal; and Bir Kitchen, a Nepalese place in the Mission. For whatever reason, the food at these places just really did not appeal to me. If it appeals to you, more power to you.

Second, there are a bunch of restaurants that form a sort of “standard canon” of what people in the tech scene — i.e., my own social scene — tend to recommend, but which I think are no better than similar places that receive much less attention. One of these is La Taqueria, which serves fine burritos but which in my opinion doesn’t justify the massive line around the block — especially when you have El Metate and El Gallo Giro so close by. Saigon Sandwich is the same thing for banh mi — Bo&Beurre and L&G are literally across the street with no line. I don’t understand why people form a massive line for pizza at Jules or dumplings at Dumpling Home, when Gioia and Dumpling House are similarly good and just a few minutes’ walk away.

Most of all, I can’t understand why everyone always wants to go to Izakaya Rintaro. I’ve been there five or six times now, but you can get pretty much the same sort of mid-level 1990s-era izakaya food at Nande-ya in Japantown, or Izakaya Sozai in the Sunset, or a number of other places — and honestly better, if you go to The Public Izakaya or Chome.

I once heard someone say “the line is the product,” and I guess maybe that’s right. Perhaps there is some level of endogenous coordination, where the fact that everyone else is excited for a particular place makes it more exciting to go there, even when it’s not very different from other places.

Anyway.

Neighborhoods

That about sums it up for my recommendations, but as I said, I’ve been to only 10% of the restaurants in San Francisco. If you want to come to SF and wander around and find places that you didn’t hear about in this guide, or the Michelin Guide, or on the standard “where to eat” websites, where do you go? I thought it would be good to offer some general thoughts on the various neighborhoods in the city.

The Mission: The Mission is, far and away, the best eating neighborhood in San Francisco. This is partly a function of size, since it’s larger than other centrally located neighborhoods. But it’s also very central, and it’s a place that lots of people come to hang out and drink and shop and party. That means it’s a little less burdened by SF’s geographic immobility — a lot of people are always in the Mission, and so restaurants are forced to compete for their business. That’s why the Mission has lots of good top-end places like Mijote, Flour + Water, Ernest, The Morris, Shizen, and so on, along with great mid-price offerings like Little Star, Base Camp, and Taishoken.

But the Mission also has a thriving Mexican community and lots of buildings with preferential rent arrangements or legacy leases, which is why you get lots of good cheap Mexican places too. Basically, if you walk around in the Mission, you’re going to find a lot of good stuff.

Japantown: Japantown has a lot of OK legacy Japanese places — izakayas and noodle spots and yakitori places that are still basically the same as they were in the 90s. Those are fine, I suppose. But the high level of foot traffic opens up room for a lot of genuinely great spots to open. It’s the city’s center for Korean food, with Bansang, Fermentation Lab, and Daeho Kalbijim, as well as a good Korean-run katsu spot called Ganji.

North Beach: Again, I recommend not going here for the standard local thing (red-sauce Italian). There are a lot of other random good places here, drawn by the heavy foot traffic — Noren for yakitori, Tasty Pot for hotpot, Red Window for tapas, Verjus for New American, and so on.

The Central/Outer Richmond: Probably the best place in the city to find good hole-in-the-wall spots, especially Chinese ones. I need to try a lot more places (and will report back in Part II).

The Sunset: Another good place to go hunting for hole-in-the-wall and mid-price spots. It’s very diverse in terms of cuisine. Both the Inner and Central Sunset are good.

Hayes Valley: My own neighborhood! It has a reputation for being full of yuppies, which is honestly pretty deserved, but it turns out that yuppies want to eat at good restaurants too. The good places here tend to be mid-priced spots like Teakwood, Phonobar, Hazie’s, Dumpling Home, and so on, making it one of the few neighborhoods in SF where you can consistently eat well for $40 a person.

Russian Hill/Polk St.: I haven’t been to enough places here, but it’s probably the best neighborhood for Italian food in the city. It also has a few Nepalese spots toward the south end of the neighborhood.

The Tenderloin: If you’re willing to brave the drug-induced disorder of the Loin, you can eat some extremely good cheap Vietnamese food in Little Saigon.

The Inner Richmond: This is a surprisingly overrated neighborhood. There are tons of restaurants, many with great reputations, but very few ones I’d put at the top of my list. I’m not sure why; maybe it’s central enough to have high rents, but peripheral enough not to have the heavy foot traffic that lures good places to the Mission, Japantown, Hayes, and North Beach.

Chinatown: Chinatown is mostly dominated by incredibly mediocre antiquated places that are still hanging on to their ancient cheap leases. There are a few good (expensive) Chinese places here, and a few good little bakeries like Yummy Bakery on Jackson, but in general this is SF’s most disappointing eating neighborhood.

The Embarcadero/FiDi: This is the neighborhood I’ve eaten in least, and I plan to review it in greater detail in Part 2. There are some solid famous places along the waterfront — Angler, Hog Island, La Mar, and so on. Kokkari is great. But overall I haven’t eaten here much.

SoMa: San Francisco’s great food desert. It was once the center of SF’s bustling daytime office culture, meaning that most of the restaurants were either lunch takeaway spots or happy hour bars. Then Covid hit, and everyone left downtown, and the takeaway spots and happy hour bars closed down. Now workers are slowly coming back to the area, but it’ll take a while for the neighborhood restaurant scene to recover, and there are only a couple of good places left.

Others: West Portal/Stonestown/Parkside, Dogpatch, Potrero, the Design District, and the Wharf area all have a few good spots, but aren’t really places to walk around and discover good new places. The Castro is OK, and is slowly getting some good new spots like Ka Kai and Potto. Noe Valley is surprisingly sparse, given the number of aging yuppies and well-to-do young families who live there. I haven’t been to Bernal enough. The Marina is dominated by bars, being more of a place to drink than a place to eat.

Anyway, that’s about all I have to say so far about eating out in San Francisco. In about a year, I’ll circle back with Part 2! Happy munching!


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Crudo at Jilli
Crab at Maria Isabel
Moriawase at Robin
Dinner at Khao Tiew
1

This is why despite the fact that they get to eat for free, I don’t envy food critics. They pretty much have an impossible job.

2

This phrase was coined by my friend Hadar Dor.

3

SF is cold in the summer, thanks to a natural air-conditioning system called the “marine layer”. Some people complain about this, but it means SF is usually pleasant when the rest of the country is experiencing brutal heat waves.

4

Routier’s one big flaw is that the butter they give you with your bread is a weird thing called “devil’s butter” that isn’t very good. Points for creativity, but they really need to add a normal butter — preferably the Brittany butter that JouJou serves.

5

Note: DO NOT order the omakase at Kibatsu. Order from the a la carte menu.

6

A Zoomer slang word meaning “surpassed”.

7

Why they make people do that instead of just raising their prices is beyond me, but anyway.

8

Warning: They use a LOT of fish sauce in their dishes, so it gets quite pungent.

9

You can also DoorDash it. It comes in a giant plastic bucket.

10

The veggie curry at Teakwood is strangely weak.

College Football’s Money Shift and the Trust Test for U.S. Fans

College football has always been about more than Saturdays. It is local pride, television inventory, campus identity, recruiting theater, and, increasingly, a public argument about who benefits when the sport gets richer.

The new financial era sharpens that argument. Athlete compensation, expanded postseason access, media money, conference realignment, and sports wagering all now sit inside the same fan experience. A supporter can watch a rivalry game, follow transfer news, compare playoff scenarios, and encounter betting-adjacent content in one afternoon.

That is why the modern sports audience increasingly moves between different forms of digital entertainment. Fans may follow a game, check playoff scenarios, read about athlete contracts, and explore related gaming platforms within the same online session. In that broader environment, resources such as Fortune Wheelz review  can naturally sit alongside other entertainment content, while still remaining separate from the core sports coverage.

Why the Money Shift Feels Different Now

College football money is not new. What has changed is the visibility of the system. Fans can now see more of the financial machinery that once sat behind broadcast contracts, donor networks, coaching salaries, bowl payouts, and conference negotiations.

Direct athlete compensation is the most obvious shift. For decades, the central contradiction of big-time college football was easy to spot: stadiums filled, networks paid, coaches earned professional salaries, and athletes were still defined by amateur rules. The settlement era does not solve every tension, but it moves the sport into a more candid place.

That candor matters. When fans know schools can share revenue with athletes, they are less likely to accept old language about tradition as the whole explanation. They want to know how money is allocated, how roster decisions are made, and whether the athletes who create the product are treated as partners in the business.

The Playoff Is Now a Financial Story Too

The College Football Playoff expansion changed the competitive map, but it also changed the financial conversation. More teams in the bracket means more games with national stakes. It also means more inventory for broadcasters, more travel questions for fans, and more pressure on selection rules.

The playoff can still produce a clean sports argument: who earned a place, who was left out, and whether a conference champion should be rewarded. But underneath that debate sits the larger question of trust. If fans believe the system is driven mainly by brand size and television value, the playoff becomes harder to sell as a merit process.

That is why transparency around seeding, automatic qualification, and committee logic matters. A larger playoff should not only create more content. It should also make the route to the championship easier for a reasonable fan to understand.

Where Trust Can Break

The modern fan does not distrust college football because money exists. Fans have always understood that the sport is commercial. Trust breaks when the public explanation does not match what people can see.

Here is where the pressure points now sit:

Pressure point What fans see Why it matters
Athlete pay Players can receive direct school payments and NIL income Fans want clarity on rules, caps, and fairness
Transfer movement Rosters change faster than they used to Loyalty narratives feel less stable
Playoff access More teams can enter the national race Selection logic must look consistent
Media deals Broadcast windows shape the season Fans notice when scheduling follows TV priorities
Betting culture Odds and prop markets surround coverage Integrity and athlete protection become public issues

None of these issues ruins the sport by itself. In fact, most are manageable. The problem comes when institutions speak as if fans cannot connect the dots.

The Athlete Is No Longer a Side Issue

For years, arguments about college football economics often treated athletes as symbolic figures. They were either “student-athletes” in institutional language or unpaid labor in reform arguments. The current era is more practical: athletes are now part of the sport’s visible economic design.

That creates new responsibilities for schools. If a program is sharing revenue, the questions move beyond recruiting wins. Fans, parents, and athletes will want to know who receives what, how decisions are documented, whether women’s sports are handled responsibly, and how smaller programs survive in the same market.

A healthy system cannot rely only on competitive instinct. It needs standards the public can understand. That includes clear explanations of roster rules, scholarship protections, NIL reviews, and the difference between school compensation and third-party endorsement deals.

Sports Betting Raises the Stakes Around Integrity

Sports betting adds another layer to the trust test. Legal wagering is now part of the American sports landscape, and college football cannot pretend the audience is untouched by it. Lines, totals, injury reports, and player props can shape how some fans talk about games.

The risk is not that every betting reference corrupts a broadcast. The risk is that constant wagering language changes the way athletes are viewed. A missed field goal can become not only a football moment, but a financial grievance for strangers watching with a ticket on their phone.

That is why college sports need firm boundaries. Integrity monitoring, education, limits on risky markets, and direct support for athletes are not public relations extras. They are part of preserving the basic promise that the contest is real, the players are protected, and the outcome is not being bent by outside pressure.

What Better Coverage Should Do

The next stage of college football coverage should be less breathless and more useful. Fans do not need every money story turned into scandal. They also do not need every reform described as progress without scrutiny.

Good coverage should do four things well:

  • Explain financial changes in plain language, not legal shorthand.
  • Separate confirmed rules from speculation about future models.
  • Treat athletes as people affected by policy, not just roster assets.
  • Show how money decisions affect non-power programs and Olympic sports.
  • Keep betting discussion distinct from tactical football analysis.

This is not about draining passion from the sport. It is about respecting readers enough to tell them what is known, what is uncertain, and who has incentives in the debate.

The Fan’s Role in the New Era

Fans are not powerless observers. Their attention funds the system. Their subscriptions, tickets, travel, donations, merchandise, and viewership give college football its value.

That does not mean every fan has to become a contract lawyer. It means the serious fan now needs a broader kind of literacy. Knowing the depth chart is still useful. Understanding revenue sharing, roster limits, playoff access, and betting pressure is becoming part of following the sport honestly.

College football will remain emotional because it is tied to places and histories people care about. The question is whether the institutions running it can match that loyalty with clearer rules and more adult explanations. If they can, the money shift may make the sport more honest. If they cannot, fans will still watch, but they will watch with less trust.

Photo: David Morris via Pexels


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Mojo🔥 is now open source

Mojo🔥 is now open source

Mojo🔥 is now open source

The Mojo programming language has been promising an open source release since May 2023. Last week they shipped their 1.0 and today they have followed through on that original promise, releasing the compiler and toolchain under an Apache 2 license.

When Mojo first launched the stated goal was to produce a superset of Python, so existing Python code could be used to bootstrap their own ecosystem. That plan changed around August 2025:

Mojo may or may not evolve into a full superset of Python, and it’s okay if it doesn’t.

We’re encouraged by how well AI-assisted coding tools already help migrate Python to Mojo today, and we’re confident that future tooling and ecosystem maturity will make this evolution even smoother.

Today Mojo is its own language, optimized to make GPU programming as painless as possible using syntax inspired by Python, if not 100% compatible with existing code.

Via Lobste.rs

Tags: open-source, python, mojo

Qwen 3.8 27B scores 52 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

Qwen 3.8 27B scores 52 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

That's the same score as GPT-5.6 Luna (max), and just one point behind GLM-5.2 (max) and DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 (max) - that GLM is 753B and that DeepSeek is 1.7T parameters, and Luna is size unknown but presumably a whole lot bigger than 27B.

Qwen 3.8 27B is a truly astonishing model.

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, qwen, ai-in-china, artificial-analysis

The Startup Trying To Rearm Canada

Out on a frozen lake in Canada, an upside-down cell tower is collecting data on the local fish population. The device is called Echo, and it’s just the beginning of what Dominion Dynamics hopes to bu…

Read more

A New Level of Trumpian Evil

Busy day yesterday, so only a brief note.

I know that Donald Trump does something new and terrible every day, sometimes several times a day. Yet his betrayal of South Korea in favor of his “very good relationship with Kim Jong Un” stands out even among his many betrayals.

Why? Because North Korea isn’t simply a bad government, just another murderous authoritarian regime. It is something that has become rare, even among dictatorships: a full-blown totalitarian state, in which the government controls every aspect of life and even thinking dissident thoughts is a crime.

Let’s be clear: Vladimir Putin’s Russia is an ugly regime, a kleptocracy in which critics of the leader have a habit of falling out of high windows. Xi Jinping’s China isn’t a free society either. But they’re mild and open compared with North Korea, where indoctrination is constant, where everyone must, if they value their lives, constantly praise the leader, whose name and portrait are everywhere:

Deeply creepy': Enormous brooding banner of Trump now hangs next to Lincoln  outside Department of Agriculture

Wait, did I get the right country?

North Korea is, in short, arguably the worst regime on the planet.

South Korea is, by contrast, one of the happiest stories in history. Obviously it’s not utopia, because no nation is. But it is a functioning democracy, which beat back a former president’s attempt to impose martial law — then tried and imprisoned him. (Is that the real reason for Trump’s hostility?)

It’s also an incredible economic success story, which transitioned over the course of just two generations from a desperately poor, war-ravaged nation to a standard of living comparable to that in Western Europe. It’s one of America’s biggest trading partners, a crucial supplier of semiconductor chips.

And South Korea is or was one of our most important military allies, with a military budget roughly the same size as Ukraine’s.

Much of the commentary I’ve seen about Trump lashing out at South Korea has focused on the damage to U.S. foreign policy and diplomacy. How can anyone consider us a reliable ally at this point? Fair enough.

But it’s even more important to realize that Trump clearly prefers a nightmarish, totalitarian dictatorship — the worst regime on the planet — to a vibrant, successful democracy. A democracy, by the way, that more than 36,000 Americans gave their lives to defend during the Korean War.

America has a president who hates everything our nation was supposed to stand for.

MUSICAL CODA

Not usually a big fan of K-Pop, but the joy and national pride of this performance are infectious:

The Apps Winning More Screen Time in 2026 Have One Thing in Common

People are not running out of apps. They are running out of patience for apps that turn a simple task into five menus and a login screen.

Sensor Tower estimates that users spent 5.3 trillion hours across iOS and Google Play apps in 2025, roughly 3.6 hours per mobile user each day. Downloads, however, increased only 0.8% year over year. In a mature mobile market, users are not simply collecting more icons. They are giving more time to apps that remove steps, surface useful information quickly and make repeat actions easier.

AI Assistants Have Escaped the Chat Box

The first wave of generative AI apps was built around a simple proposition: type a question and receive an answer. In 2026, that is no longer enough.

AI assistants now compete across research, writing, image generation, coding, planning and shopping. Sensor Tower recorded 48 billion hours spent in generative AI apps during 2025, around 3.6 times the 2024 figure. By the first quarter of 2026, ChatGPT, Gemini and DeepSeek together accounted for nearly 90% of time spent in AI assistant apps.

The winners are becoming multi-purpose workspaces rather than isolated chat tools. An app that can process an image, remember previous context and help organize the next task has more reason to stay on the home screen.

Money Apps: From Balance Check to Control Panel

A banking app that only displays an account balance now feels incomplete. Users expect card controls, transfers, transaction alerts, payment tools and spending information without moving between separate services.

Not every finance category is growing at the same speed. Sensor Tower found that downloads of credit and lending apps increased 18% year over year in 2025, while investing and cryptocurrency apps declined.

The design lesson is more interesting than the category ranking. People open finance apps because they want to do something: freeze a card, move money, approve a payment or find an unusual transaction. Every unnecessary tap delays that action.

Why Fitness Data Needs Interpretation, Not Just Tracking

Counting steps was simple. Modern fitness apps have a harder assignment because watches, rings and phones can now produce streams of workout, sleep and recovery data.

Health and fitness apps recorded approximately 3.96 billion installs in 2025, while category in-app purchase revenue reached $4.5 billion, according to Sensor Tower. Running, cycling and AI-assisted nutrition products were among the areas showing momentum.

Raw numbers alone are becoming less useful. Users increasingly expect an app to explain whether a hard training session affected sleep, how weekly mileage has changed or whether recovery has deteriorated. The phone is becoming less of a notebook and more of a personal data dashboard.

Online Entertainment Is Being Cut Into Smaller Pieces

Mobile entertainment increasingly fits between other activities rather than demanding a free hour. Someone can watch a short video, check a score or follow part of a live match before putting the phone away. Sports products suit this habit particularly well because the relevant information keeps changing. On MelBet , pre-match and live odds, event statistics and the bet slip sit inside the same sportsbook flow, cutting down the need to jump between several screens during an event. A goal, injury or shift in match momentum can move a live price quickly, so speed only matters when the user understands what caused the change. Short sessions reward interfaces that reveal the current situation immediately instead of making users reconstruct it.

The usage data supports that behavior. Time spent in U.S. sports betting apps rose 7% year over year in 2025, while global downloads increased 24%, according to Sensor Tower. Live sport naturally produces repeated check-ins, which is exactly the type of behavior mobile interfaces handle well.

Cricket Has a Few Seconds to Explain the Match

Cricket makes the information problem particularly obvious. A score of 142 for two tells only part of the story; the over, target, required rate and wickets remaining can completely change what that number means.

The official IPL app combines live scores, ball-by-ball commentary, fixtures, results, highlights and match reports. That amount of information gives fans the context needed to understand how an innings is developing. During a tight chase, an IPL betting  interface adds another live layer, with match odds and player markets reacting as the required run rate, wickets and remaining overs change. One wicket can alter both the likely match result and individual batter projections within seconds. Fast data matters most when the interface preserves that context instead of scattering it across several menus.

That is why cricket works so naturally as a second-screen sport. Fans are rarely checking only the score. They are checking what the score now implies.

Fewer Taps, More Repeat Use

Feature lists still look good in app-store descriptions. They matter less when the basic workflow is slow.

Biometric sign-in removes a password step. Saved preferences stop users rebuilding the same filters on every visit. Useful notifications bring the relevant update to the lock screen, while better onboarding gets a first-time user to the core function before interest disappears.

The common thread across AI, money, fitness and sports is not the amount of technology packed into the product. It is the distance between a question and a useful action. In 2026, apps are increasingly competing to make that distance shorter.

Photo: Viralyft via Pexels


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How Programmable EMR Platforms Reshape Everyday Clinical Work

Clinical care involves repeated tasks that carry real weight. Intake, charting, follow-up, refills, and result review all shape safety, continuity, and trust. A programmable electronic record changes those routines at the point where strain usually starts. Instead of forcing every visit through one rigid sequence, it lets clinics tailor documentation and coordination to actual care patterns. That practical shift can ease cognitive load throughout the day.

From Fixed Forms to Flexible Work

Many clinics still rely on record systems designed around broad templates that fit nobody especially well. Platforms like Canvas Medical  offer a more adaptable model, giving outpatient teams configurable workflows, plugins, and software agents that support primary care, cardiology, sleep medicine, mental health, and chronic disease programs. That flexibility is especially important when visit flow, staffing patterns, and documentation needs differ significantly across specialties.

Notes That Fit the Visit

Documentation works best when it follows the logic of the visit itself. Generic note structures often disrupt this flow by including irrelevant fields or poorly timed prompts. A programmable system can present specialty-specific sections, symptom-based questions, and structured data entry in a more useful order. That approach supports faster charting without compromising clinical meaning. Clearer notes also support later review, coding, and handoffs between treating teams.

Rules That Reflect Actual Care

Care pathways vary widely across urgent visits, obesity treatment, behavioral health, and chronic disease management. One fixed workflow rarely respects those differences in a clinically useful way. Programmable records let clinics build rules that mirror local practice patterns and staffing models. Medication review might initiate one process, while preventive counseling could trigger another. Teams receive guidance while preserving judgment, which supports consistency without oversimplying clinical nuances.

Better Intake Without Extra Burden

Morning bottlenecks often stem from the intake process. When forms and screenings are stored outside the chart, staff must re-enter answers by hand, which increases delays and the risk of errors in transcription. A programmable record can route patient responses directly into the note and flag missing items early. Rooming becomes faster and more efficient. Patients also face fewer repeated questions, which can improve their confidence.

Faster Follow-Up Loops

Test results, refill requests, referral status, and unanswered messages can stall when routing rules are vague. Programmable systems help assign those tasks by condition, visit type, or staff role. Teams spend less time sorting inbox clutter that obscures urgent tasks. Patients receive clearer next steps, and unresolved items remain visible.

Stronger Specialty Support

Specialty clinics depend on records that reflect their treatment rhythms. Weight management, sleep care, cardiology, and mental health  each require different review steps, measurements, and decision points. A programmable record can accommodate those distinctions inside one shared chart. That reduces reliance on tools that split information across platforms. Unified records make it easier for physicians, nurses, coaches, and operations staff to assess the medical situation.

Data That Serves Daily Decisions

Structured data has real value when it helps teams act in a timely manner. Programmable records can capture symptoms, diagnoses, laboratory trends, and gaps in care in reusable form. Staff can then trigger reminders, create reports, and monitor outcomes without heavy spreadsheet work. Better data hygiene supports planning at the bedside and behind the scenes. It also reduces stress before audits, payer reviews, or internal quality checks.

Automation With Guardrails

Automation is most effective when it removes repetitive clerical work while ensuring accountability. A programmable record can support document parsing, chart drafting, and claims routing while ensuring that human oversight remains integral. That balance protects safety, accuracy, and accountability. Clinical decisions are still made by licensed professionals. Administrative tasks become more efficient, but staff can still trace what happened, why it happened, and which actions are needed next.

Training Becomes More Practical

Training improves when the record mirrors the clinic’s actual sequence of work. Staff learn faster when screens, prompts, and task lists reflect real patient visits. That practical fit can reduce resistance during onboarding and process changes. Updates also become easier to teach because the software can adapt to operational changes. Training materials may remain relevant for longer, and staff spend less time converting abstract instructions into bedside routines.

Conclusion

When records are tailored to specialty workflows, teams spend less effort on workarounds and dedicate more attention to patient care. Better intake, clearer notes, faster follow-up, and accountable automation can improve care. The strongest benefit is practical: daily operations become easier to manage, and clinicians can work with greater focus, consistency, and control.

Photo: RDNE Stock project via Pexels


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The Mainland Colony of D.C., Once Again, Could Serve as a Laboratory for Wingnuts

This time, it has to do with wearing motorcycle helmets (boldface mine):

Two Republican lawmakers have introduced legislation that would prohibit Washington from requiring motorcyclists to wear a helmet, raising concerns among road safety experts and marking what some say is another attempt by federal lawmakers to interfere in D.C. affairs.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisconsin) and Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Montana) introduced bills in the House and Senate on Thursday that would overturn D.C.’s law requiring all motorcycle operators and passengers to wear a helmet, regardless of age. Forty-seven U.S. states have motorcycle helmet laws of some kind, and 17 have universal helmet laws like D.C.’s, according to the Governors Highway Safety Association.

If the good people of the Great States of Wisconsin and Montana want to increase the pool of organ donors, go right ahead, but this sort of policy shouldn’t be inflicted on the residents of the mainland colony of the District of Columbia. What’s worse is that they openly admit they don’t care about the consent of the governed:

Van Orden — a Harley-Davidson rider — wants to use his “Ride in Freedom Act” targeting D.C. as a starting point to try to roll back helmet requirements across the country, according to his spokeswoman, Grace Kim.

“D.C. is an important place to start,” Kim said. “If Congress can change the policy here, it opens the door to having a larger conversation about the federal government’s role in helmet mandates across the country.”

The Douglass Commonwealth can’t come soon enough. D.C. statehood now.

Links 8/18/26

Links for you. Science:

Two oceans, one country, twenty times the number of sharks
Exploring the concept of longevity in fungi
Ancient forests took 100,000 years to recover from the last global warming period similar to today – Wyoming fossils reveal what happened
Influencers attacked by sharks while trying to take selfies
The opposite of “transparency”: Sneaking Lysenkoism into NIH peer review
NIH Funding: What Does the Unified Funding Strategy Actually Change?

Other:

It Is Past Time for You to Quit Elon Musk’s X
With Fear and Favor: Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives. (important for Democrats; also, Marc Elias should be ashamed of himself)
X’s Algorithm Feeds Off Ragebait and Impacts Democrats More, Study Finds
Natalie Harp Is Even Weirder Than We Thought
The Money Is Still Not Showing Up for the Big AI Companies
Which Young Men Are “All In” On Crypto? If young people are over-leveraged on crypto, policymakers and employers can make better options available
The State Department’s New B.F.F.
‘Freezers Are Getting Empty’: Food Banks Struggle to Meet Demand as SNAP Cuts Rip Through Communities
David Ellison Has Gamed Out His California Exit
The American Sports Plutocracy Is Bullshit
Bluesky hit by 24-hour DDoS attack as pro-Iran group claims responsibility
The Good News Trump Won’t Mention. Crime is plunging, but he can’t handle that truth
White House Takes the Bait as Ossoff Targets Trump Aide Natalie Harp
Trump blames vandals for damaged grass in the same spot where he held his big July 4 celebration
If You Want to Know How Trump 2.0 Is Really Going, I Suggest a Visit to the Dying Trump “Superstore”
Trump’s Last Loyal Constituency
Democrats Really, Really, Really Don’t Want People Investigating Their Scammy Fundraising
David Brooks: Boo-Boos in Paradise
Massive Trump merchandise store goes out of business – because nobody is buying anything
Debunking MAGA’s Puppy-Killer Smear Against Abdul El-Sayed
National park signs on women and LGBTQ+ history are disappearing. Librarians are preserving the record.
People Horrified That They’ll Be Busted Now That Anthropic Is Watermarking AI Content
We’re Longtime DNC Members—and We Support Ken Martin
What Do We Call People Who Are Friendly With Bigots
The New Right’s Toxic Addiction to Racial Conflict
Travels With Natalie
The Bogus Lakers Sale Is Exactly Why We Need Publicly Owned Sports Teams
It’s Summer 2026
Is a Trump Endorsement Becoming a Liability?
Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter

Astronauts remove failed antenna; run out of time to install a spare

This image above shows the operational SGANT (right) with the dish of the failed unit partially visible near bottom center. Menon, wearing a suit with red stripes, is locked onto the station’s robot arm while Adenot, wearing an unmarked suit, floats below him. Image: NASA

NASA’s Anil Menon and European Space Agency astronaut Sophie Adenot returned to the International Space Station’s Quest airlock, closed the hatch and began repressurizing at 2:52 p.m. EDT, bringing a six-hour 23-minute spacewalk to a close.

It was the 282nd EVA devoted to station assembly and maintenance, the fifth so far this year, the second for Menon and the first for Adenot, now the first French woman to walk in space. Total ISS EVA time now stands at 74 days 10 hours and 44 minutes since station assembly began in 1998. Menon’s total to date is 12 hours and 50 minutes.

Today’s excursion was only partially successful. Menon and Adenot successfully removed a failed space-to-ground antenna, but freeing tight power and data cables, installing locking pins in the antenna’s gimbal assembly and unbolting it from its boom took longer than expected even with a fair amount of elbow grease turning a ratchet wrench.

Anil Menon and Sophie Adenot float back inside the International Space Station’s airlock. Image: NASA

In the end, flight controllers decided there wasn’t enough time for the spacewalkers to move the failed antenna to its permanent storage location or to retrieve the spare antenna and install it. Instead, the failed antenna was lashed down near its boom, where it will remain indefinitely, and its replacement remains bolted to a storage platform.

The ISS is equipped with two such antennas and only one is needed for normal operations. But it’s a critical system, and managers would like to have two healthy antennas in place for redundancy.

Another spacewalk is on tap next Tuesday, and flight controllers are considering whether to get the replacement antenna installed then or whether to stick with already planned tasks and defer the antenna replacement to a future EVA.

LLMs and Contextual Integrity

I have been thinking a lot about AI and integrity. Part of that is contextual integrity. I recently found two papers on the topic.

CIMemories: A Compositional Benchmark for Contextual Integrity of Persistent Memory in LLMs“:

Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly use persistent memory from past interactions to enhance personalization and task performance. However, this memory introduces critical risks when sensitive information is revealed in inappropriate contexts. We present CIMemories, a benchmark for evaluating whether LLMs appropriately control information flow from memory based on task context. CIMemories uses synthetic user profiles with over 100 attributes per user, paired with diverse task contexts in which each attribute may be essential for some tasks but inappropriate for others. Our evaluation reveals that frontier models exhibit up to 69% attribute-level violations (leaking information inappropriately), with lower violation rates often coming at the cost of task utility. Violations accumulate across both tasks and runs: as usage increases from 1 to 40 tasks, GPT-5’s violations rise from 0.1% to 9.6%, reaching 25.1% when the same prompt is executed 5 times, revealing arbitrary and unstable behavior in which models leak different attributes for identical prompts. Privacy-conscious prompting does not solve this—models overgeneralize, sharing everything or nothing rather than making nuanced, context-dependent decisions. These findings reveal fundamental limitations that require contextually aware reasoning capabilities, not just better prompting or scaling.

Contextual Integrity in LLMs via Reasoning and Reinforcement Learning“:

Abstract: As the era of autonomous agents making decisions on behalf of users unfolds, ensuring contextual integrity (CI)—what is the appropriate information to share while carrying out a certain task—becomes a central question to the field. We posit that CI demands a form of reasoning where the agent needs to reason about the context in which it is operating. To test this, we first prompt LLMs to reason explicitly about CI when deciding what information to disclose. We then extend this approach by developing a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that further instills in models the reasoning necessary to achieve CI. Using a synthetic, automatically created, dataset of only 700 examples but with diverse contexts and information disclosure norms, we show that our method substantially reduces inappropriate information disclosure while maintaining task performance across multiple model sizes and families. Importantly, improvements transfer from this synthetic dataset to established CI benchmarks such as PrivacyLens that has human annotations and evaluates privacy leakage of AI assistants in actions and tool calls.

Some fertility and AI forecasts

The 2024 forecast is particularly pessimistic about China’s fertility prospects. Both projections produce very substantial global aging, a major global capital glut producing very low long-run real capital returns. The latest forecast entails 10% lower global GDP in 2100 and far higher payroll tax rates to fund old-age benefits. Most important, it entails a major change in the course of economic hegemony with China’s 2100 global GDP share falling from 25.6% to 14.9% and the US share rising from 11.2% to 14.4%. Our results are sensitive. Should the US eliminate all future immigration, its 14.4% global 2100 GDP share would drop to 9.2%. And were global fertility to follow the UN’s low variant, 2100 world output would be one third, not one tenth lower. The level and division of global output is also highly sensitive to the speed at which AI expands frontier technologies. Accelerated AU/AI – 4x faster-than-recent growth in capital’s share through 2050 – or Transformative AU/AI – 10x faster capital-share growth – reinforce demographic forces, ensuring long-run US economic hegemony. Indeed, Transformative AI combined with 2024 demographics implies US and Chinese 2100 global GDP shares of 25.3% and 16.9%, respectively.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Seth G. Benzell, Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye.  Note that today the U.S. share of global gdp is slightly higher than it was in 1980.

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Tuesday assorted links

1. AI is helping patients to solve their medical mysteries (WSJ).

2. History of economic thought in one paragraph.

3. Becca Rothfeld on Rachel Cusk.

4. “Since ChatGPT, the number of new economics papers posted each year has almost doubled.

5. Alan Macfarlane update China fact of the day.

6. Is the next cultural boom coming to Latin America?

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August 2026

I'm writing this from a homely Jacobean-manor-turned-hotel in the West Country, covered in layers of green vines and circled by centenarian trees, on a rare weekend away. Everything is warm: the late afternoon sun, the mustard armchairs, the dark wooden panels along the walls. I'm three teas deep and have a few hours of quiet to think for the first time in many months.

Over the summer my baby became a rambunctious toddler, barrelling around the house and narrating our lives in his own language. My family bought and moved into our first real home after crappy-rental-hopping for years. I've now been on the GitHub Next team for the better part of a year and feel settled.

My husband and I both work full-time, so with a small child and a new house, one that is in fact a very old house, with broken doorknobs, peeling wallpaper, jammed windows, and rising damp that needs to be fixed, we acutely feel the lack of time these days. It's a stretch to meet everyone's basic needs and keep the dish piles and dirty clothes from drowning us, let alone fix floorboards. I end up thinking a lot about people married to housewives and SAHMs. And the 1971 classic essay I Want a Wife by Judy Brady. An excerpt:

"I want a wife who will keep my house clean. A wife who will pick up after my children, a wife who will pick up after me. I want a wife who will keep my clothes clean, ironed, mended, replaced when need be, and who will see to it that my personal things are kept in their proper place so that I can find what I need the minute I need it. I want a wife who cooks the meals. I want a wife who will plan the menus, do the necessary grocery shopping, prepare the meals, serve them pleasantly, and then do the cleaning up while I do my studying."

Turns out my husband and I would also like a wife. But not in the polyamorous sense. In the does-the-invisible-unpaid-household-labour sense. Thanks to an incurable case of feminism, it was never going to be me.

I am genuinely hopeful agents might put a dent in this problem, in the same way washing machines and dishwashers did. While they can't physically do our chores, I expect we can outsource a good chunk of the mental load to always-on agents like Hermes and OpenClaw: pre-emptively buying the next size of kids' shoes, planning weekend outings, making menus and ordering the groceries, researching and contacting local roofers, balancing family calendars stuffed with school outings and football matches and work trips.

But for the moment, autonomous agent systems are a PITA to set up securely. The moment you give them access to the necessary tools like your email, calendar, and a debit card, you've opened a security hellhole. The amount of context these systems need to be genuinely "smart" in the way a human helper would be is non-trivial to configure, and impossible to do safely. This is a "check back next year" technology.

For the moment we're resigned to eating lots of cheese on toast and cereal for “meals,� and living in a Montessori-themed construction site. I also think about this hilarious Instagram meme a lot:

There is much angst in my circles over the impending mass unemployment of humans. There is much concern over what people will do with their time when all the work of the world disappears, reassigned to agents.

What is the work of the world in these conversations? Accounting, sure. Paralegal research. Much of software development. Data entry. Translation. Transcription. Financial advice. Everything listed in these sorts of reports. I've no beef with the argument that most repetitive knowledge work is low-hanging fruit for agent labour.

And yet there is so much labour to be done. Obviously, my dishes. Frankly, all of my household tasks. Home maintenance. Childcare. Elderly care. End-of-life care. Social care. Everything that has historically been done for free, by women, unaccounted for in any economic calculations like GDP.

And then there's the public service labour that everyone would benefit from but has no clear buyer: retrofitting cities to adapt to a changing climate. Installing solar panels and heat pumps. Planting trees and putting up shade covers. Building and maintaining safe bike paths. Farming seaweed for sequestering carbon. Digging a bunch of new reservoirs so my tiny, rainy island doesn't ironically run out of water.

There is no shortage of physical, social, educational, and cultural work that we need humans to do for one another that cannot, in any wild imagining of agent capabilities, be done by our current or near-future robots. We just can't figure out how we would pay people enough to do these jobs. There is plenty of need, but not enough ability or willingness to pay. I find myself twisting my small brain into knots and googling basic economic theory trying to understand how we're going to solve this riddle under modern capitalism. Other than, you know, UBI funded by aggressively taxing tokens.

In a very basic bitch move, I've started listening to the audiobook Economics: The User's Guide by Ha-Joon Chang in an attempt to backfill all the economics I never learned and understand more about market dynamics. It feels irresponsible to watch the coming tsunami of AI abundance and not, at least theoretically, understand how it will smash into jobs, wages, and labour. And manifest the permanent underclass we keep hearing about.

<a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/187172/economics-the-users-guide-by-chang-ha-joon/9780718197032"><strong>Economics: The User's Guide</strong></a> by Ha-Joon Chang

An accessible introduction to economics for readers with no background in the subject. Chang covers classical, Keynesian, Marxist, and half a dozen other schools of economic thought side by side, showing where each one is useful and where it falls apart.

Also, while we're on the topic of domestic labour and women's economic freedom, I recently read Yesteryear and loved it, just like everyone else. Strong recommend.

<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/238226942-yesteryear"><strong>Yesteryear</strong></a> by Caro Claire Burke

Natalie is a tradwife influencer with a picture-perfect farmhouse life, until she wakes up trapped in an actual 19th century, minus the nannies, producers, and industrial ovens propping up her aesthetic. It's a darkly funny, genuinely unsettling read about tradition, fame, and the performance of womanhood.

How to Make a Marriage Proposal

Today Tara and I celebrate our 35th anniversary.

In many ways, it was a miracle that we ever came together. Before we got engaged we hadn’t even spent 30 days in each other’s company—because we lived thousands of miles apart.

I resided in Palo Alto back then, caught up in a mad and hectic time of life—balancing multiple vocations (music, writing, teaching, business). Tara was on the other side of the continent, living on the Upper East Side of Manhattan. There she was pursuing her vocation as a dancer and choreographer, while also teaching dance at the ritzy Chapin School.

I was visiting my brother Dana in New York, and met Tara by chance. We were set up on a blind date. I’d never gone on a blind date before—and this one made no sense. Why even test the waters with someone who lives three thousand miles away?

But our mutual friend Sedra Varga insisted that Tara and I would hit it off. And Sedra had an amazing track record as a matchmaker—playing a role in connecting ten couples who later got married. So when Sedra says she has found your perfect match, you don’t ask questions. You just take the phone number she gives you, and make the plunge.

At least that’s what I did.


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But there was a problem from the start. My trip to New York was almost over, and Tara was busy with dance rehearsals. There was only a one hour slot where our schedules were both open.

So we met over drinks for that one hour.

What can you really tell about someone in one hour? Not much. But there really was a spark during those sixty minutes—and we both felt it. Tara was passionate about dance—the same way I felt about jazz. Our world views were in alignment. And she was poised and smart and attractive.

Yes, I was smitten.

Tara in her New York dance days

I’m not sure what expectation I’d had for the blind date. But it exceeded them on all levels. Then the hour was over, and I went back to California. Tara returned to her world of dancing and teaching and whatever else she did to fill her days.

Even so, that hour was hard to forget for both of us. So we both found excuses to take cross-country trips—making a few more dates possible.

Still, this was all craziness. How can you build a strong relationship when you are three thousand miles apart? It gradually became clear to me that we would either need to break up or get married. And I had no intention of breaking up with Tara.

That’s when I started planning a marriage proposal. But what did I know about proposals?

Nothing. I’d never made one before, or even thought about it.


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But even in my clueless state, I knew two things—mostly from reading books about knights and chivalry: (1) I would have to get down on one knee when I asked the question, and (2) I would need a diamond ring.

The knee part I could figure out on my own, but diamonds were a grand mystery to me. I’d only bought them for the stylus on my audio turntable—but I doubted that those kind of diamonds would get me through a proposal. So I consulted the only expert on this subject I knew, namely my mother. With her help, combined with an indecent amount of money, I managed to obtain a ring.

But I still needed to figure out where to do the deed—and time was running out. Tara would arrive at San Francisco Airport in a few days, and this was going to be my chance. Failure was not an option.

I found that my grand education in literature was of little help here. I didn’t have time to go through the whole Mr. Darcy routine, and I definitely lacked the boldness of Rhett Butler.

Edmund Leighton, Yes or No? (1890)

I feared I would end up like Pierre in War and Peace, who is so confused by the prospect of proposing that he never actually gets the words out of his mouth. He is only saved when his future father-in-law interrupts the proceedings and congratulates Pierre on the couple’s betrothal. In other words, the poor fool got engaged without ever proposing.

As Tolstoy might have said: There are many ways a marriage proposal can go wrong, but only one way it goes right—with an affirmative response. And it’s easy to overthink things. According to popular legend, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was so oblique in his approach to future spouse Andrea Mitchell that he had to propose three times before she understood what he was talking about.

I could easily see myself doing the same—launching into some long-winded prologue. When in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for two individuals….

Oh, fiddlesticks, that’s how you start a revolutionary war, not a marriage.

Having exhausted Austen and Tolstoy and even the Founding Fathers, I turned to the contemporary world, and did actual research (at least I’m good at that). I wanted to learn how other couples got through this hurdle. However, I discovered—much to my dismay!—that the most frequent location for a marriage proposal in the United States is….

Can you guess it?

The most frequent location for a marriage proposal in the US is inside an automobile. Yes, they seal the deal while they’re merging on to the 101, or stuck in a jam on the 405, or just getting their kicks on Route 66.

This depressed me. I had already spent enough of my life behind a steering wheel. For my love life, I needed something more romantic.

(Okay, this was 35 years ago. Maybe things have changed. Proposals probably happen today via text messages, with some special emoji or acronym. Or maybe there’s a newfangled Uber-ish app where you hire an intermediary. Or, for all I know, the two parties have their AI agents negotiate terms of engagement. The mind reels at the possibilities.)

At this point, I turned to my friends for advice—always the last act of a desperate guy. “What’s the most romantic spot for a marriage proposal?” I inquired. And I got lots of responses. But their suggestions were almost entirely fancy restaurants.

That was better than a Honda Accord, but I wanted something more.

I wanted my proposal to happen in a place that was timeless and awe-inspiring. I wanted us to go back to the same spot fifty years later, and find that it was still there—and nothing had changed. It needed to be as eternal as our love.

I kept mulling this over, and struggled to find a solution. But the clock was ticking. Tara’s arrival was imminent. I had to finalize my plan, and I still didn’t have a setting.

Then it came to me in a flash.

When I finally figured it out, the solution was obvious. I would go the most awe-inspiring spot in all of California—namely, the middle of the Golden Gate Bridge.

That would be a beautiful story for the kids and grandkids. Everybody in the world knows that bridge. Everybody loves its beauty and grandeur. And if we ever did reach a golden anniversary (= 50 years), we could celebrate it by returning to that golden bridge.

So I now had a place. I had a ring. And I had prepared a tiny speech to avoid Greenspanian ambiguity. But…

Ah, little did I know, but I still had a huge challenge facing me. The Bard of Avon got it right when he said that “the course of true love never did run smooth.”

That’s because, on the day of my planned proposal, a huge storm hit Northern California. A mega storm of cats and dogs and maybe even mid-sized livestock. But I refused to get discouraged.

Somehow I convinced Tara to come with me on an outing. (Hey, honey, lets go for a drive. Wouldn’t it be cool to see the Golden Gate Bridge in the middle of this maelstrom?)

When we got to the visitor’s parking area just across the Bay, I suggested that we take a stroll out on to the span. Tara thought I was crazy—and I must have seemed demented right then. The storm was at its peak, and nobody was walking on the Golden Gate Bridge that day.

The downpour was intense. The wind was wild too. But we bundled up, grabbed umbrellas, and started our trek across that huge span.

We didn’t actually get to the middle of the bridge. Instead I stopped when we got to the lookout area near the northern end—where there was enough space for me to get down on one knee.

But before I could do that, Tara saw something that caught her attention—and wanted to point it out to me. You can decided whether this was coincidence or destiny. I know if it happened in one of those literary novels I was talking about, I’d assume it was a symbol of sort.

But what comes next is just the plain truth. I’m telling you exactly what happened right before I popped the question.

Tara grabbed my arm and pointed to the big rock. No, it wasn’t the big rock on the ring, which was still in my pocket. She pointed instead to the big rock in the middle of the Bay—and declared to her future husband: “Look, there’s Alcatraz.”

Yes, right before I proposed marriage, my future wife was talking about prison

I married this beautiful woman 35 years ago.

I didn’t let that slow me down. Nothing could stop me now—not even the prospect of a life sentence. So I asked Tara to reach into the pocket of my coat, and take out the small box that she would find there.

She did just that. And as she opened the ring box, I made my genuflection like a knight of old (only lacking the shining armor). And there in all the wind and fog and rain, I asked her to be my wife.

We have now been married thirty-five years, and I’ve never been quite so wet since that moment. We drove back to my apartment in Palo Alto, turned on the heat, and celebrated our betrothal over delivery pizza.

The delivery guy was surprised by the size of the tip. But I only do things like this once, and I was determined to get all the details right.

And that, my friends, is how to handle a marriage proposal. At least that’s how I did it back before all those apps and bots.

And so many years later, all three of us—me, Tara, and the bridge—are still standing strong. With some luck, we will still be standing for some time to come.

SpaceX exceeds 11,000 satellites in low Earth orbit

File photo of a Falcon 9 fueled for launch at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Image: SpaceX.

Update 2:06 a.m. EDT (0706 UTC): SpaceX confirmed deployment of the satellites.

SpaceX sent another batch of Starlink satellites to low Earth orbit with a launch Tuesday night launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket happened at 9:01 p.m. PDT (12:01 a.m. EDT / 0401 UTC). The rocket flew on a south-southwesterly trajectory upon leaving the pad at Space Launch Complex 4 East.

The Starlink 17-50 mission added another 24 broadband internet satellites to the megaconstellation, bringing the total number of satellites currently in orbit to a little more than 11,000. Those include satellites that are either not fully operational, have failed, and are preparing for deorbiting.

SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster B1097. This was its 12th flight after previously launching the Twilight and Transporter-17 rideshare missions; Sentinel-6B; NROL-172; and seven previous batches of Starlink satellites.

A little more than eight minutes after liftoff, B1097 landed on the droneship, Of Course I Still Love You, positioned in the Pacific Ocean. This was the 219th landing on this vessel and the 651st Falcon booster landing to date.

Apple TV Still Has No Start Date for ‘The Savant’

The Savant is a political thriller series starring Jessica Chastain that was supposed to debut a year ago. Apple “postponed” it, apparently out of fear of upsetting extremist right-wing nut jobs because the show is about an undercover investigator (Chastain) hunting down extremist right-wing nut jobs. Chastain was not happy about the show being delayed.

Last we heard about the show was back in April, when Marc Malkin reported this for Variety:

“Before it was like, ‘I don’t know if we’re going to see it,’ but now I can say, ‘We’re going to see it,’” Chastain told me exclusively on Saturday at the Breakthrough Prize ceremony in Santa Monica.

As for when, sources tell me that Apple is planning for a July release.

Given that it’s now the middle of August, I think that a July release is looking less and less likely by the day.

 ★ 

No Update Since Early July Regarding Siri AI Coming to the EU, Ever

The Financial Times, back on July 1, with the transcontinental byline “Michael Acton in San Francisco and Barbara Moens in Brussels” (non-paywalled summaries from 9to5Mac and MacRumors):

Apple chief executive Tim Cook and EU tech chief Henna Virkkunen held “constructive” talks on Tuesday as the two sides aim to lower the temperature in a bitter dispute over the iPhone maker’s new “Siri AI.”

An EU spokesperson said the virtual meeting had involved a “constructive exchange on topics of common interest, on which the work continues”. The meeting included a discussion of how Apple can launch its reinvented Siri in Europe while avoiding millions of dollars in fines for violating the bloc’s flagship competition rules, according to two people familiar with the talks.

[9 paragraphs of explanatory backstory on the Siri AI/DMA standoff elided ...]

The dispute triggered a fierce public backlash against the commission, with European officials reporting hundreds of emails from consumers accusing Brussels of depriving Europeans of a new technology. One EU official said that a commission spokesperson had received a stream of abusive messages, including several death threats.

If there are actual kooks who made credible death threats, of course they should be investigated, identified, and arrested. But mentioning this in the context of the “fierce public backlash” feels like fishing for sympathy over a deeply unpopular policy of zero benefit to Europeans. That there are hundreds or thousands of complaints is no surprise. This policy sucks and is indefensible on practical grounds.

In November, Apple first proposed a technical fix to the EU it later dubbed a “Trusted System Agent” — a layer of software between a user’s device data and a third-party AI model. It would allow rival AI assistants to draw on personal information from the device without giving them full access to the data. However, Apple has yet to build the agent, and said it was looking for assurances from the EU before it starts.

A commission official said its contact with Apple on the idea was limited, and that it lacked a concrete proposal or details on how such an agent would work beyond the general concept. They said Apple “focused on obtaining a green light to delay the compliance”.

That’s the nut of it. Last winter Apple sent an entire team, including engineers, to Brussels to present a proposal for the TSA (maybe that’s another acronym that needs rethinking on the basis of prior art) to ask, basically, “If we build this, would you deem it DMA-compliant?” and the Commission’s response was basically, “Build it first and then we’ll tell you, after we get feedback from your competitors on what they think of it.” And Apple doesn’t want to spend up to two years building a complex system, exclusively for the EU, only to find out then whether it was all for naught.

As for how detailed Apple’s Trusted System Agent proposal was, we have a he-said/she-said dispute. Apple said at a press briefing at WWDC that it was quite detailed. An anonymous “commission official” here told the Financial Times “that it lacked a concrete proposal or details on how such an agent would work beyond the general concept”. Apple has more credibility here, if only because their statements claiming the proposal was detailed weren’t from anonymous sources. They were on the record.

In the meantime, we’ve seen what the European Commission is demanding of Google with Android regarding third-party LLMs. I can’t see Apple ever agreeing to such a system for iOS. We don’t know the details of Apple’s TSA proposal, but I’d be rather flabbergasted if it enabled the things the EC is demanding for third-party AI providers on Android, like unrestricted background execution.

 ★ 

From Natalie, With LOVE …

With the growing attention being given to Trump handler/confidante Natalie Harp, I looked up this November 2024 Times article which captures some of the relationship …

“You are all that matters to me,” she wrote in one of the letters, which were seen by The New York Times. The letters’ authenticity was confirmed by two people with direct knowledge of them.

“I don’t ever want to let you down,” Ms. Harp wrote, thanking Mr. Trump for being her “Guardian and Protector in this Life.”

In another letter, she told Mr. Trump that she wanted to get back to “that synergy” she used to have with him, where “we’d talk about everything and nothing.”

“I want to bring you joy,” she wrote, “to feel like we can get through a day without ever having to talk ‘work.’”

At the White House, Ms. Harp is likely to serve a role unlike any presidential adviser in modern history.

Given that Natalie Harp is not only a conventionally attractive women but also Trump’s type, there’s an obvious and understandable inclination to imagine that they are involved in a sexual relationship. Perhaps they are. But my best guess is that the relationship is more akin to an emotional support pillow/blanket. If they are having an affair, mostly who cares? There are so many other higher priority dangers this rapidly-fading, degenerate man-child poses to our country and our future. If he’s receiving some kind of emotional soothing from Harp in whatever form better he get it there than from invading more countries.

The more public-relevant issue with Harp is that she appears, from pretty credible reporting, to be a key vector for Trump’s incoming and outgoing information. She notoriously carries with her a portable printer and batteries so she can print out flattering press coverage. If you’re familiar with Trump’s Truth Social feed it’s clear that he frequently bases new de facto policies, attacks, demands … what have you, on things that come from far-right sites or absurd Twitter threads. So like new claims of vandalism, justifications for his actions that need new rationales. There’s this feedback loop of randoms trying to come up with justifications, arguments, new forms of retaliation. Then Trump sees them adopts them as his own. They’re no less stupid or dangerous or absurd but like Frankenstein’s monster they become real, if no less disfigured, when he brings them to life and invests them with the power of the American presidency. Harp seems to be the vector for a lot of that. Reporting also suggests that when he fires off new demands or threats or whatever else it’s often Harp who is clicking “send”.

Needless to say there doesn’t appear to be any shortage of sycophantic idiots in the second Trump White House. She may simply have taken over some of the role once occupied by Dan Scavino who has now ascended to bigger things. So it’s not like she’s the problem. Perhaps more like she’s the current executor or actuator of the problem. In any case, she’s an important figure beyond just rumor and jokes.

Nature Is Healing: MacOS 27 Golden Gate Beta 6 Adds Redesigned Traffic Light Window Controls

Zac Hall, 9to5Mac:

macOS 27 Golden Gate beta 6 introduces redesigned traffic light window controls. The new look resembles older Mac OS X systems with more detail in each button.

These changes can’t improve fast enough for me — I am impatient. The MacOS user interface had been in a slow, steady, sad, no-fun decline for years, and then, a year ago, the bottom fell out with the disaster of 26 Tahoe.

But all the changes in 27 Golden Gate are in the right direction. Golden Gate is not a mixed bag. Designers with taste and talent are back at the helm. And I love that they’re still pushing UI and icon changes in mid-August, entering the home stretch of the .0 beta cycle.

 ★ 

MacOS 26.7 Tahoe Release Candidate Contains a Video Demonstrating Camera-Equipped AirPods in Action

Oops.

 ★ 

★ Follow-Up Thoughts on Watermarking Schemes for AI-Generated Text

Some follow-up to this weekend’s stemwinder “Anthropic’s ‘Watermark’ Text Adulteration in Claude Is a Perversion of Writing”:

Temperature

Contra a bunch of idiots at Hacker News and elsewhere, I understand that popular LLMs do not just pick the “best” token (word) at each decision point. Counterintuitively, always selecting the highest-probability option produces undesirable results. So the models apply some randomization, and “temperature” is the term for the weighting that’s applied so that the “better” (higher-ranked by the model) choices have a higher chance of being chosen.

With a temperature of 1, models use their built-in probability distribution. With a temperature greater than 1, this distribution gets flatter — less-likely alternatives get a higher probability of being selected, and more-likely alternatives lower. With a temperature lower than 1, the probability distribution leans more toward the higher-ranked options. And with a temperature of 0, the highest-ranked option is always chosen. A temperature of 0 generally produces undesirable results — too predictable, too likely to get stuck. Like over-smoothing an image from a camera sensor, eliminating all noise makes the overall result worse, even if each single bit of “noise”, evaluated in isolation, is in some sense wrong.

The temperature-based randomness — which is what makes LLM output non-deterministic — is in place to help make the output better. The prose is clearly better with a temperature of 1 (with weighted randomness) than at temperature 0 (with no randomness). The watermarking schemes, on the other hand, are applying predictable-with-the-secret-key randomness for an entirely different purpose than improving the quality of the output, and thus, I believe, inherently make the output at least slightly worse.

Advocates of LLM watermarking schemes for text argue that the schemes don’t necessarily lower the quality of the generated prose, because they don’t change the temperatures — they only change the source of the randomness. Daniel Jalkut wrote a good piece today about this. I hope that’s true. I believe it’s possible that it is true. I think it’s highly unlikely that it is true. I do not see how a detectable signal can be added encoded in the choice of words without affecting the meaning of the prose. If it were true I think they’d show examples proving that it’s true. Also, Anthropic itself admits that it can’t properly watermark text that is programming language code:

For the same reason, code — which in very many cases has to be exact — has generally less watermarking than some other forms of text.

Having said that, in areas where there is an arbitrary choice between particular words or terms within the code, the watermark can be used, such as comments within code. But by definition, it will have a negligible effect on the actual code produced.

I hold that good prose is much more like programming code. Exactness in word choice, phrasing, tone, and even punctuation is always better than imprecision. The difference is that sloppy programming code doesn’t run, or doesn’t run correctly. The human brain, on the other hand, is adept at parsing and making sense out of inexact, even sloppy, prose.

I Object Even If Quality Isn’t Adversely Affected

I do not believe these schemes can work without degrading prose quality, if only slightly. Again, though, I am open to being proven wrong. But even if we concede for the moment that such watermarking schemes do not necessarily degrade the quality of generated prose — not one iota — I still object to their use when they are being applied secretly, behind users’ backs. A useful watermark would be one that anyone can check. These SynthID “watermarks” are entirely dependent upon secrets held by the LLM providers (so far, Anthropic/Claude and Google/Gemini). I find that unacceptable, for reasons I hopefully made clear in my essay.

The people in favor of this watermarking for text have been sold a pipe dream, a fantasy. I’ve encountered dozens of comments from angry AI haters (many of them on Bluesky in particular, but also Threads and Hacker News) who are convinced that the only people who could be against the watermarking of AI-generated text are those who are duplicitously passing off AI-generated text as their own writing — and thus that I must be upset only because the jig will soon be up for me too. This of course is not true. I don’t even use AI to write text messages or emails for me, let alone a single sentence of my work.

But I find it funny that so many people who claim to believe that LLMs only produce “slop” and never anything useful also seem 100 percent convinced that the same LLMs are capable of watermarking their output in reliable ways. These people so desperately want to be able to point a finger at AI-generated text that they’ve fallen hook, line, and sinker for the argument from Google and Anthropic that, thanks to them, they’ll be able to.

I don’t want to spend too much time thinking about this because it’s a waste of time, but how exactly do these people think the existence of these mandatory watermarks and detection tools will change anything for the better? Let’s say you work at an office and you suspect that numerous of your colleagues are using AI to write emails and other work-related messages. Their messages are too long, too prolific, and lack lucidity. What are you going to do now? Copy and paste each of their messages into the watermark detectors from Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI? There cannot exist a single detector for all LLMs. And even if you find out that it says it’s a match, that an email or blog post or Slack message was very likely generated by, say, Claude, what are you going to do? March into your colleague’s office and tell them you caught them?

Anyone in a situation where “getting caught” would matter — students, say — is going to use non-watermarking LLMs or run their watermarked text through paraphrasing tools like Declaude.

No practical good is going to come of this, even if these watermarking schemes work as promised (and to be clear, I don’t believe any of it is going to work as promised).1

My advice is not to care whether anything was written by an AI or a human. The only thing worth evaluating is what we human readers are naturally good at determining: whether it is good or bad. If it’s good, read it. If it’s not, don’t. If you’ve got a job where you’re surrounded by colleagues filling your inbox with AI-generated messages that you can’t abide, get a new job or learn to live with it. Hidden secret watermarking signals — even if they work — aren’t going to make things go back to the way they used to be. If you read something and enjoy it, and subsequently find out it was generated by an LLM, don’t feel bad. You read something good that you enjoyed.

I read something earlier today that claimed most of the posts on LinkedIn are generated by AI. That the whole platform is just inundated with AI slop. Maybe it is, but I wouldn’t know, because I never look at LinkedIn because it’s always been filled with crap. If it smells like crap it’s crap, whether the turds came out of a human anus or a turd-generating robot.

The Argument That Only People Can Truly Write

Dan Moren, writing at Six Colors today, “LLMs Aren’t Writing”:

LLMs do not care about the words that they pick because they cannot care about anything.

Speaking of two things that are not the same, John rightly points out the difference between the phrases “he leaped at the chance” and “he jumped at the opportunity”. Those are indeed distinct — if semantically similar — phrases, each of which might be more apt in a particular situation; or, to put it in another fashion: the use of each of those phrases tells us something different, whether about the person being described or the writer.

But the LLM doesn’t know which of those phrases is the right phrase to use. It has a guess, based on its models and weights and inputs. But the ultimate choice of those phrases tells us nothing about the writer because there is no writer.

Moren’s is a fine retort to my post, but I fundamentally disagree — albeit at a philosophical level. If you’re reading a written work only to gain insight into the mind that produced it, there is no mind on the other end of AI-generated text. But the work itself exists. My disagreement with Moren starts and effectively ends with his (wonderfully summative) headline. I say if you can read something, it was necessarily written.

Again, this is philosophical. Was a photorealistic image generated by AI photographed? No, I would say it was not. Photography, I would say, is the act of focusing light through a lens onto a capturing sensor, capturing, to some extent, reality. I think Moren is arguing that writing is like that. If photography captures a physical scene from reality, writing captures thoughts from an actual mind. That something you can read that was produced by an LLM was merely generated in a way that doesn’t qualify as writing. Semantics. I just care about the article of text. Moren argues that LLMs are not writing; I say they are. But we’re disagreeing only over what the word writing means, not what is being produced.

As for “caring” about the difference between semantically similar but tonally different phrases, like “he leaped at the chance” versus “he jumped at the opportunity”, no, of course the LLM doesn’t “care”. But I, the reader, care very much. I wrote a column back in November on ChatGPT changing (and renaming) the “personalities” it allows users to choose from. These personalities generate text with strikingly different styles and tones. Because I use ChatGPT, I care very much about the tone and style of its responses to my queries. Not because I’m ever going to pass them off as my own writing, but because I’m the one who is reading them.

Moren, near the end of his column:

In the end, I can’t summarize it any better than to ask: if you care so much about word choice, why are you using AI to generate text?

If this does truly make AI-generated text worse, well… good. A lot of people are already willing to accept what an LLM churns out as “good enough” and, if I’m being realistic, I don’t think this will change anything. But if it does lead to more people being dissatisfied with the pablum they’re being fed and turning instead to writing and editing their own text, then that would actually be a positive outcome. Maybe it’d even mean fewer human writers being put out of jobs.

I sympathize, but I must disagree that it can possibly be seen as a net good for LLMs to produce worse prose. I read the output of LLMs every day. I use AI to generate text because I ask it questions (in text). I want the answers that I read to be cogent, lucid, accurate, blessedly terse — and ideally to strike a consistent tone that is pleasant to my reading ear. The genie is not going back in the bottle.

English Is the Finest Language, and Thus, Perhaps, More Fingerprintable

Lastly, here’s an interesting point to ponder. English is the most expressive language in the world. Don’t take my word for it — it’s the only language I speak (despite four years of Spanish in high school). Take the word of famed 20th century author Jorge Luis Borges, an Argentine polyglot whose first language was Spanish. In 1977 he was the guest on William F. Buckley’s “Firing Line”. You can (and should) watch the interview on YouTube, but here’s a transcript of the relevant portion from Jordan M. Poss:

Borges: I have done most of my reading in English. I find English a far finer language than Spanish.

Buckley: Why?

Borges: Well, many reasons. Firstly, English is both a Germanic and a Latin language. Those two registers — for any idea you take, you have two words. Those words will not mean exactly the same. For example if I say “regal” that is not exactly the same thing as saying “kingly.” Or if I say “fraternal” that is not the same as saying “brotherly.” Or “dark” and “obscure.” Those words are different. It would make all the difference — speaking for example — the Holy Spirit, it would make all the difference in the world in a poem if I wrote about the Holy Spirit or I wrote the Holy Ghost, since “ghost” is a fine, dark Saxon word, but “spirit” is a light Latin word. Then there is another reason. The reason is that I think that, of all languages, English is the most physical of all languages.

Buckley: The most what?

Borges: Physical. You can, for example, say “He loomed over.” You can’t very well say that in Spanish.

Buckley:Asomó?”

Borges: Well, no, no, they’re not exactly the same. And then you have, in English, you can do almost anything with verbs and prepositions. For example, to “laugh off,” to “dream away.” Those things can’t be said in Spanish. To “live down” something, to “live up to” something — you can’t say those things in Spanish. They can’t be said. Or really in any Romance language.

I’ve seen this interview before, but watched it again today after an email exchange with Kirk McElhearn. Quoting (with permission) from McElhearn’s email to me:

For many years, I worked as a French → English translator, and there is one key difference between the two languages. France is a Romance language, and English is a language with both Germanic and Romance (mainly French) influence. This means that English often has synonyms where other languages may not.

Using your example, “He leaped at the chance” and “He jumped at the opportunity”, both would be translated in French as “Il a sauté sur l’occasion.” Meaning that someone writing in French wouldn’t have the same range of words to choose from. It’s maybe not the best example, because both are clichés, but there are many examples of French words where English has both a Romance equivalent and a Germanic equivalent: pig and pork, sheep and mutton, beef and cow. Food words are just one example, but English also has many more verb choices than French, since it has a larger vocabulary coming from both influences.

English gleefully borrows from any and all other languages. McElhearn wonders whether English is thus more fingerprintable than other languages, because of its richer vocabulary of roughly equivalent synonyms, and its multitude of idioms.


  1. However, this vein of pro-watermarking support from people opposed to AI in general has opened my eyes to the notion that Anthropic is throwing its support behind this in order to get people who despise AI off their backs. ↩︎

The Era of Literal AI Book-Chomping Has Begun

Here is an update on a story you may not yet have heard of. It manages to be at once fascinating, deeply disturbing and a perfect living metaphor of our age. AI models are vulnerable to something called “model collapse.” In the early days of LLM-based AI there was a seemingly limitless store of online content to train it on. But that’s mostly been used up. Meanwhile, a rapidly growing percentage of online content is produced by AI. If you try to train AI on the product of AI it’s a bit like locking a person in a sealed room and watching them slowly suffocate as they breath in the product of their cellular respiration (CO2) rather than the fuel (oxygen) that makes the body function. Not a perfect analogy but you get the idea. This has made the creators of AI increasingly desperate in their search for new artifacts of human intellection — a phrase I heard once from the great Chaucer scholar John V. Fleming who died this past May — to feed into large language model AI systems.

The solution? Physical books published before 2022. You can guarantee as a matter of absolute certainty that whatever their quality, their merits, whatever they’re about, they are the product of human minds.

It’s relatively easy to scan a book without damaging it. But if you’re doing it at scale the costs of scanning and digitizing a book’s contents without damaging it are vastly higher. So what AI companies appear to be doing is buying up books, cutting off the spines, feeding them into industrial scale scanners and then throwing away.

All the reporting I’ve seen on this, as well as the latest report which I’ll describe in a moment is from a new outfit called 404 Media. It’s a tech news site, but not the kind you might be familiar with. It’s deeply conversant with all the ins and outs of tech but also deeply skeptical verging on hostile toward the people who run big tech and the ideas and motivations that inform it. So you get a lot of reporting on surveillance technology and stuff like what I’m describing here. I really recommend it.

Back in July, reporter Emanuel Maiberg published a fascinating piece about how all this started to come to light. There’s a sleepy and kind of slow-moving world of book peddlers out there who sell books online. They often work through book clearing houses. So someone purchases a book but the order comes through a clearing house so the book peddler doesn’t know the actual purchaser. Starting about a year ago a lot of these peddlers started seeing a dramatic increase in the volume of sales. Not only were sales coming in faster that any of them had seen but orders would come in for collections of books that had no logical connection to each other. So perhaps in the past you’d see an order from someone interested in ancient South Asia or the history of the industrial revolution. But now it was long lists of books with no logical connection to each other. The common denominator was they all had ISBN numbers. What’s more the buyers seemed indifferent to price.

As you’d expect this was quite the boon for the book peddlers — huge orders with no thought to price. But they started putting two and two together and suspecting that they were being purchased by AI companies. And as you’d imagine, if you’re in the used and, especially, rare book space you probably have an affection for physical books that goes beyond profit margins. In any case, that was what the July article was about.

When that article first came out I thought at least the aggregated headlines based on the 404 article were at least a bit misleading because it made it sound like these were all rare books. And that’s clearly not the case. It’s just that rare books or semi-rare ones get pulled into this massive AI vacuum. (To be clear, this wasn’t really 404. It was more so the way the headline and versions of the stories shifted as it was picked up by other publications.) It wasn’t clear how many of the books were genuinely rare. And a lot remained unclear in this first article since the companies involved don’t want to talk. And some of the clearing houses were already making clear to the AI companies that they had a potential optics problem on their hands.

One key detail Maiberg got from the book peddlers is that the books are never ones that don’t have an ISBN number. Those came into existence in the 1960s. So that probably creates a rough target range from about 1966 to 2022, seemingly nothing before that. What the book peddlers speculate is that the AI companies are trying to systematically scan all books ever published everywhere in the ISBN era. The older stuff would be valuable too. But it’s not susceptible to this kind of systematic harvesting.

In fairness I think it’s important to note what we all know: that lots of books are being thrown away all the time. That’s just in the nature of things. And many of these books probably aren’t terribly rare. But the issue is more than symbolic. A lot of these book peddlers are generally selling these books to libraries or other institutional buyers but now a lot of those books are being bought and tossed on to a metaphorical if not literal bonfire.

Which brings us back to today’s story. Apparently in the course of reporting the original story, one book peddler told Maiberg that he’d gotten a very large order for about 1,000 books through the clearinghouse Biblio. He agreed to put an Apple Airtag provided by 404 Media into the of the books. That allowed 404 to track this and the other thousand books’ journey to destruction.

They managed to track it as it flew from California to Wisconsin, then to Kenosha Regional Airport, then by truck to Colorado and eventually to Las Vegas. And that’s where the book chomping center was. I want to make sure you go check out the article this is based on so I’m not going to tell you the big tech company who runs this particular chompery. It’s one of the big boys. Just click here and the headline itself tells you the company name. But you’ll want to read the whole piece because there’s lots of additional detail.

Late Update: There’s an important part of this story that I neglected to add. Doesn’t change the big picture. But it’s an interesting part of the equation. Destructive scanning is much cheaper than non-destructive scanning. But in a lawsuit against Anthropic a judge ruled specifically that it was the destruction that made the scanning permissible under copyright law. The logic was that Anthropic bought the book and didn’t make a copy. It just transformed the format. There’s still just one book rather than the original and a copy. Because the original has been destroyed. I’ve seen some AI fanboys argue that the matter is really out of the scanning companies’ hands. They have to destroy the original or else they’ll be sued.

This is not a good argument. No one is forcing them to do this. And the company’s right to use these books to train their LLM-based AI models is at least questionable, certainly morally and possibly legally. In any case, just why they’re destroying the books is kind of beside the point, either it’s the cost of scanning or its the cost of having to compensate the rights holders over the books. Same difference. Same outcome.

Another question is what happens with the scans. To the extent you’re making these books harder to find or possibly even destroying a final copy you should at least make the scan available to the public. Perhaps they could be enjoined to deposit the copies with the Library of Congress. This raises a technical issue. I’m not sure the AI scanning process actually preserves a what we would call a digital copy of the book. It would be a simple matter to do both at once. Or a relatively simple matter. But I don’t think LLM’s keep full copies of the material they learn on. So I don’t think we can assume that copies, in the archival sense, are being made through this process. Possible, but I don’t think that’s clear.

Why Aren’t Modernist Bridges Awful?

The public dislikes modern architecture but, generally speaking, they do not dislike modern bridges. Lists of the most awesome, most stunning, most beautiful bridges in the world will mention classics like London’s Tower Bridge, the Brooklyn Bridge, or the Rakotzbrücke but alongside them they will picture the Kubitschek Bridge in Brazil (Shutterstock).
The Rio-Antirrio Bridge in Greece:
Rio-Antirrio Bridgeor the Moses “Bridge” in the Netherlands.
Moses Bridge
Whether you like these bridges or not, I don’t see in the literature an idea that modern bridges are all ugly or that modern bridge building has failed or fallen behind the great bridges of the past in the way that there is such a critique for modern architecture in general.

Why is this? I have a theory, which is that bridge designers come from engineering schools rather than schools of architecture. It is possible, of course, that there is something in the nature of bridges that prunes the design space in a way that attracts beauty–maybe we like catenaries, arches, cables in tension and beauty is just a byproduct of the engineering.

It is possible, however, to produce ugly bridges so it’s not just an engineering constraint. Moreover, one small but telling piece of evidence in favor of my theory is that most of the bridges chosen by Wallpaper magazine, an architecture magazine specifically, are in fact ugly (and with no overlap in the bridges from my first category of “popular” beautiful bridges). Here are a few, judge for yourself:

The fact that modern bridges are often beautiful, especially when they come from engineers, is consistent with Samuel Hughes’s argument that ugly has been a choice, not a constraint.

The post Why Aren’t Modernist Bridges Awful? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Public attitudes towards deceased organ donation and allocation in china

 Deceased  organ donation in China does not  yet have overwhelming public support although receiving a deceased donor organ transplant does:

Hu, D., Wang, Y., Hu, Q. et al. Public attitudes and preferences on organ donation and allocation in china: a cross-sectional study. Sci Rep 16, 24995 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-54903-4 

 

 

 

In praise of zealotry

Illustration of a chaotic procession with figures in historical costume, each with exaggerated expressions and dialogues.

Early feminists like Mary Astell and Catharine Macaulay refused their male peers’ advice to remain polite in debate. Why?

- by Geertje Bol

Read on Aeon

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 190523
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lala, located several hundred miles west of Kauai, Hawaii.

Central Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is showing some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within a few days while
the system moves generally westward across the western portion of
the east Pacific and into the Central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
NNNN


The world’s most influential economist is oddly unconvincing

Daron Acemoglu is revered. Why?

August 17, 2026

From Friday through Sunday, Trump continued his now-habitual weekend flooding of social media with fantasies that he is smart, beloved, and powerful.

The post closest to reality on Friday touted the story by Steve Thompson, Federica Cocco, and Christoper Rowland of the Washington Post on Thursday, August 13, reporting that prescription drug prices have fallen 3.1% this year, the biggest rate of price decrease since 1963. While that drop is real, the journalists note, much of the drop reflects the falling price of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, whose price has dropped dramatically because of competition from generic versions.

For other drugs, experts say the price drop comes from the Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Democrats without a single Republican vote in 2022, during the Biden administration. That law permitted the government to begin negotiations with drug companies for lower prices on ten commonly prescribed drugs, with the lower prices going into effect this year. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimated that taxpayers would save $6 billion from those first changes.

Health policy scholar Stacie Dusetzina told the journalists that Trump’s TrumpRx program covers “a limited number of branded drugs” that “may not be high enough volume to be included” in the new figures.

The desire to claim Biden’s success as his own may have been behind Trump’s resurrection of accusations that Biden was corrupt.

Trump’s morass in Iran also turned into fantasy on social media when he claimed the U.S. has built a “WALL OF STEEL,” complete with an AI wall through the water, of a blockade of Iranian ports. Trump then veered to declaring that “Pocahontas and ‘Abdul’”—Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), whom he portrayed in stereotypical Indigenous garb, and Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for U.S. senator from Michigan, “want to take your stuff, and Crash the Economy!!!” and that El-Sayed and women in hijab “are coming for your home and your belongings!”

Since an appeals court found that construction must stop, Trump has harped on the idea that the ballroom is crucial for national security. But as Will Hobson and Louise Radnofsky of the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, Trump began suggesting a ballroom back in 2010 for reasons of aesthetics and space. The national security argument, the journalists note, didn’t arrive until January 2026, after legal challenges to his authority to demolish the East Wing and build his ballroom.

Trump’s weekend fantasies put him in the same category as framers of the Constitution as he showed an AI-finished ballroom to George Washington, at one point writing: “Thank you, George, for some of your brilliant ideas on this great Military Complex/Ballroom!” In real life, Washington staunchly opposed royal luxury for the president.

By equating himself with George Washington, Trump appeared to entertain the fantasy that he is leading the country toward a second American Revolution, much as Heritage Foundation leader Kevin Roberts told Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast in 2024. Trump’s vision for the country is literally dark: on Saturday his social media account posted a dark black-and-white image of him wearing a Trump 2028 hat, with the caption, in a German-style typeface echoing that of the Nazis, saying: “We are going to win.” In another post, he boasted that he and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un “get along GREAT!”

Sunday evening, Trump declared that “[b]ased on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un,” the North Korean dictator, he had ordered Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to “substantially reduce” traditional military exercises with key U.S. ally South Korea. The joint drills were scheduled to begin today.

Trump wrote that such exercises “send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful.” Trump suggested the change was retaliation for the refusal of South Korea’s president Lee Jae Myung to help the U.S. in Iran, but as political scientist Norm Ornstein noted, the decision comes just as North Korea is sending 50,000 troops to help Russian president Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine.

The idea that Trump is a powerful dictator making a victorious alliance with North Korea and Russia presents a darkly threatening posture but, like the rest of Trump’s social media dump, portrays a world different from reality.

Today is the day that the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran that Trump signed on June 17 expires. Rather than ushering in a permanent agreement that opens the Strait of Hormuz and stops Iran’s nuclear ambitions, today shows just how badly Trump is flailing.

This morning he lashed out, telling Trey Yingst of the Fox News Channel “that Iran should ‘put up the white flag of surrender.’ I have no time schedule,” Trump told Yingst. “I’m not in a hurry...the midterms have nothing to do with my thinking.” As for talks between Iran and Oman over control of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump told Yingst: “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the sh*t out of them.” Oman is a key U.S. ally in the region.

For Iran’s part, an Iranian leader told Reuters that if diplomacy fails, Tehran will shift from defense to offense. Benoit Faucon and Summer Said of the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Iranian hard-liners have spent the past two months planning to widen the war and raise the cost for the U.S., inflicting enough pain that Iran can deter future attacks. Today Reuters reported that Iran-backed Houthis launched missiles at Saudi ships near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another key international shipping route.

Meanwhile, Trump is caught in a domestic scandal over the condition of the U.S. military. In early August, news broke that the U.S. was running low on precision missiles after using the expensive weapons to shoot down inexpensive Iranian drones. Then we heard about the appalling conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, an aircraft carrier kept overseas without adequate resupply and with maintenance issues, including overflowing toilets. Multiple outlets have reported that despondent service members, months past the scheduled end of their deployment, have attempted self-harm. The U.S. is moving the USS George Washington from the western Pacific to replace the USS Lincoln, leaving the region near China without a U.S. carrier.

When a reporter began a question to Trump on Friday with, “Family members of U.S. service members are concerned about the conditions on board the USS Lincoln,” Trump interrupted to say: “No they’re not.” When the reporter followed up with “Has the deployment gone on too long? Are you worried about their mental health?” he blustered: “No, no, no. Not nearly long enough.”

Families of sailors reacted with fury, telling Ed Pilkington of The Guardian that sailors have bad water and so little food they have lost up to 30 pounds (13.6 kg). There is little mental health counseling despite the extended deployment. “Keep praying for us,” one sailor texted home. “We are doing our best to make sure we protect our country and our families.”

On Saturday, Aaron Parnas in MeidasNews reported on a supply crisis on the USS Boxer, as well, and today Brad Lendon of CNN reported that sailors on a U.S. guided missile destroyer spent four days in blistering heat last month without working toilets, cooked food, or air conditioning after the vessel lost power.

Trump’s contribution to military plans has been to order the U.S. Navy to alter the construction of new aircraft carrier USS Doris Miller—named for a Pearl Harbor hero—ordering the designers to replace the modern electromagnetic launch system for planes with an older, steam-powered catapult system. Kaanita Iyer of CNN reports the change will delay production of the craft for several years and could cost billions.

Noah Robertson and Tara Copp of the Washington Post reported on Sunday that the Navy is also considering redesigning the aircraft carrier fleet to reflect Trump’s preference for ships that look like those from World War II. That change, too, could cost billions.

On Sunday night, a social media user posted a video of Trump at a party at his Bedminster club blasting “Y.M.C.A.” on his iPad for the crowd. National security scholar Tom Nichols responded: “We’re losing a war to Iran, we’re alienating our allies, we’re emboldening our enemies, our stalwart service people are being subjected to deprivations...and this is what the Commander in Chief is doing.”

But, in fact, that’s not all Trump is doing.

Late Friday night, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, whose leader Trump appointed, approved a preliminary charter for World Liberty Financial (WLF) to become a bank. As Lawrence Delevingne and Pete Schroeder of Reuters report, the charter would permit WLF to issue USD1, a stablecoin tied to the dollar, and to manage and hold assets for customers and settle payments faster. WLF is the cryptocurrency venture launched by the Trump family and their close allies the Witkoff family.

Steve Witkoff is Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, and WLF has done at least one major deal with a national security advisor for the United Arab Emirates. Reuters estimates that as of April 2026, WLF had “funneled more than $1.6 billion to the U.S. president and his family.”

Strategic studies scholar Phillips P. O’Brien wrote: “They are going to steal everything they can while they have power.”

Senator Elizabeth Warren, the top-ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, said: “President Trump is now the first President in history to approve, operate, and supervise his own bank. This is the most brazen act of self-dealing our financial system has ever seen—and Congress cannot allow it to stand.” She and nine other senators are introducing a bill to guarantee “that no President, Vice President, their immediate families or other senior government officials can exploit their positions to own or control a bank, which could serve as a major vehicle for corrupt dealings.”

At 4:09 this afternoon, Trump posted on social media an image of Kim Jong Un outside with several men standing around him, talking on a landline telephone. The caption read: “HEY DONALD, WE COOL… RIGHT?”

Notes:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/08/13/prescription-drug-prices-record-sharpest-drop-more-than-60-years/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/aug/17/politics-trump-south-korea-military-pentagon-republicans-democrats

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6034269-us-south-korea-military-exercises-cut/

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trumps-ballroom-was-his-dream-of-beauty-and-space-now-its-a-military-complex-89a7e230

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-orders-cuts-to-u-s-south-korea-military-drills-2bc63cec

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/oil-prices-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html

https://apnews.com/article/project-2025-trump-american-revolution-6e02a297fb91b55de01ba7e86615bb08

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-plan-escalate-war-cc657664

https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/14/politics/trump-steam-catapult-navy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/15/navy-weighs-major-warship-redesign-match-trumps-preferences/

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/6031688-navy-carrier-design-trump/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/10/ukraine-war-briefing-north-korea-sending-50000-troops-to-russia-zelenskyy

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/houthis-say-they-attacked-saudi-vessels-off-yemens-mocha-2026-08-17/

https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d

https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/17/asia/us-destroyer-benfold-loses-power-intl-hnk-ml

https://meidasnews.com/news/they-were-begging-us-to-send-them-extra-pads-and-tampons-family-member-describes-feminine-hygiene-shortage-aboard-the-uss-boxer

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-regulator-approves-bank-charter-trump-backed-crypto-company-world-liberty-2026-08-14/

https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-familys-world-liberty-financial-gets-preliminary-approval-to-launch-a-bank-dd518a2b

https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/following-approval-of-trump-crypto-company-bank-application-warren-and-colleagues-to-introduce-the-ending-presidential-corruption-in-banking-act

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/16/navy-families-denounce-trump-hegseth

Trumpstruth:

statuses/40825

statuses/40831

statuses/40848

statuses/40847

statuses/40855

statuses/40854

statuses/40853

statuses/40852

statuses/40905

statuses/40900

statuses/40890

statuses/40881

statuses/40882

statuses/40874

statuses/40918

X:

TreyYingst/status/2089314268558618803

NormOrnstein/status/2089106823953408325

RadioFreeTom/status/2089180204971225115

PhillipsPOBrien/status/2088653972206764517

Bluesky:

acyn.bsky.social/post/3mt2o4diyy32e

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The Yukon Gold Rush

Week Twelve in 250 to 250

Week Twelve!

Last week was the twelfth week of videos from the 250 to 250 Project that we’re producing to honor the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

Our hope was for the videos to emphasize the agency of Americans—mostly everyday Americans—to change the country. Each falls into a category that defines what it means to be an American, including community, democracy, innovation, mobility, civil rights, education, conservation, and creativity. Once again this week, some of our narrators chose their own topics adding wonderful new stories.

Even more, though, it is clear that the narrators themselves represent the innovation, talent, and civic-mindedness we were hoping to celebrate.

You can follow the project at the sites listed below, or under “videos” at my own YouTube page: Heather Cox Richardson. Or just wait until I send out the week’s roundup.

Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads


Julia Child, Narrated by Jacques Pépin

Jacques Pépin is a legendary chef, culinary educator, PBS television host, and author whose work revolutionized American home cooking. He is best known for starring with his dear friend and fellow icon, Julia Child, in the Emmy-winning TV series Julia and Jacques Cooking at Home. In 2016 he and his family created the Jacques Pépin Foundation, which is dedicated to improving lives through culinary education. Here, Pépin celebrates Julia Child’s enthusiasm for making fine cuisine accessible to all.

Stamp Act, Narrated by Joanne Freeman

Dr. Joanne B. Freeman is an award-winning historian, who studies the politics and culture of America’s past to better understand our history. She is Professor of History and American Studies at Yale University. Freeman tells the story of the Stamp Act, which ignited the resistance that led to American liberty.

Native American Code Talkers, Narrated by Latham Nez

Latham Nez is a contemporary Navajo artist, jewelry creator and cultural advocate from New Mexico and the grandson of the late Chester Nez, the last surviving member of the original 29 Navajo Code Talkers. Nez remembers the Native American Code Talkers, whose Indigenous languages became unbreakable codes that helped win both World Wars.

Hockessin Colored School #107, Narrated by Senator Chris Coons

Senator Chris Coons of Delaware is an American lawyer and former Chair of the Senate Ethics Committee, who is recognized for his work in legislature and oversight. Coons tells how Shirley Bulah’s walk to a segregated school led to a Delaware ruling that helped pave the way for Brown v. Board of Education.

Fort Mose, Narrated by Chip Storey

Charles “Chip” Storey is a board member and historian for the Fort Mose Historical Society. The society advocates for public education and historical accuracy on the nation’s first legally sanctioned free Black settlement. Storey tells the story of Fort Mose, the first legally sanctioned free Black community in America, founded by fugitives from slavery in Spanish Florida.

Washington’s Letter to Newport’s Hebrew Congregation, Narrated by Laura Freedman Pedrick

Laura Freedman Pedrick formerly served as a trustee of St. George’s School, and on the Board of Governors at Newport Hospital. She is a current board member of the Newport String Project. As the former chair of TSF Newport, dedicated to Teaching the history of the Separation of church & state and religious Freedom in the United States, Laura now serves as ex-officio on that board in Newport, Rhode Island. Pedrick recounts George Washington’s 1790 letter to Newport’s Hebrew congregation, a founding promise of religious liberty that “gives to bigotry no sanction.”

Morrill Act, Narrated by Josh Cowen

is a professor of education policy at Michigan State University, where he founded the Education Policy Innovation Collaborative. Cowen focuses on bringing research and evidence to public policy decision-making. Cowen describes the impact of the 1862 Morrill Act, which gave us our state colleges and universities.

Bill Mauldin, Narrated by Garry Trudeau

Garry Trudeau is an American cartoonist and satirist best known for bringing sharp, countercultural political and social commentary to the funny pages with his Pulitzer Prize-winning political comic strip Doonesbury. Trudeau profiles World War II cartoonist Bill Mauldin, whose infantrymen Willie and Joe gave weary American soldiers a champion and a laugh when they needed it most.

Aaron Copland, Narrated by Na’Zir McFadden

Na’Zir McFadden is an acclaimed American orchestral conductor known for winning the 2026 Sphinx Medal of Excellence and is the Associate Conductor of the Jacksonville Symphony and Conducting Fellow of the San Diego Symphony. McFadden profiles composer Aaron Copland, whose Pulitzer-winning works captured the American landscape and forged a distinctive national sound.

Cripple Creek Miners’ Strike, Narrated by Sherrod Brown

Born and raised in Mansfield, Ohio, is a champion for working families. He is running for U.S. Senate in Ohio to take on the rigged system to help people who work hard. Brown recounts the 1894 Cripple Creek miners’ strike, the only time a state militia was deployed in support of striking workers.

Great Railroad Strike of 1877, Narrated by Eric Arnesen

Dr. Eric Arnesen is an American historian and professor at George Washington University best known for his award-winning book Brotherhoods of Color: Black Railroad Workers and the Struggle for Equality. Arnesen recounts the Great Railroad Strike of 1877, whose violent suppression led Congress to bar the use of the U.S. military against civilians.

Star Wars, Narrated by Alexandra Vidal

Alexandra Vidal is a member of the Youth250 Bureau bringing youth voice and influence to the U.S. 250th commemoration and the next chapter of U.S. history. Vidal shares the cultural and artistic influence of Star Wars, the space opera that transformed the film industry.

Stonewall Uprising, Narrated by Bishop Mariann Edgar Budde

serves as Bishop of the Episcopal Diocese of Washington, the first woman elected to the role. She is known for her dedication to justice, mercy, and moral courage, themes she explored in her recent book, How We Learn to Be Brave. She explains how the 1969 Stonewall Uprising marked a new chapter in the cause of human freedom.


Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads

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The Moon's shadow raced across the heart of Spain, and I was there to see it

DURATÓN, Spain—I'll say it: I'm hooked. Standing in the shadow of the Moon is one of the rarest opportunities to directly sense the mechanics of our Solar System, when the dance between three celestial bodies slides into perfect alignment. It's a mathematical miracle whose rarity and grandeur are made possible by the relative sizes and distances of the Moon and the Sun from Earth. Not every planet is so lucky.

The Moon's shadow crisscrossed the American heartland twice in less than seven years, first in 2017 and again in 2024. I was fortunate to witness both. The experiences left me too impatient to wait for the next total solar eclipse in the continental United States in far-off 2044.

That's what pulled me to the plains of north-central Spain last week. This land of wide open spaces, ancient churches and castles, and vast sunflower fields, all baking under the blinding August Sun, seemed like the perfect location to enter the path of totality. The ongoing drought in Spain has turned the country's fields and forests into a tinderbox, but those conditions made for ideal eclipse viewing.

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Morocco facts of the day, Morocco is not hopeless

For decades, South Africa was the great success story of African industrialization. Last year, Morocco took the lead, emerging as the African Development Bank’s top-ranked industrial economy in Africa. In the Bank’s analysis, published in the latest edition of its industrialization index, Morocco’s growth has been “driven by sustained industrial upgrading, export diversification, and strong industrial policy.” Since the mid-2000s, it has leveraged its location and dominant phosphate reserves to get free trade agreements with the US, the EU, and fifty other countries: the Kingdom would like Morocco to be to France what Eastern Europe is to Germany, or what Mexico is to the US: an export-base “workbench.”

Having positioned itself to profit from the shift to clean energy supply, Morocco is nimbly pivoting its auto manufacturing sector to build EVs, working with incumbents like Renault and Stellantis, and is host to Africa’s first battery gigafactory. That single 70 gigawatt-hour battery factory in Casablanca is expected to supply a third of Europe’s current market. Last year, the government approved construction for a new green hydrogen industrial park, aiming to produce ammonia, steel, and industrial fuel worth a total of $32.5 billion. It has also been strategic in focusing its industrial strategy on aerospace manufacturing, with Airbus becoming a strategic partner, along with investments from Boeing, Thales, and Safran. Its aerospace exports more than tripled in the decade to 2024, to reach almost $3 billion.

Here is the full piece by Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay.

The post Morocco facts of the day, Morocco is not hopeless appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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How economics is changing

As a proportion of the literature, research about econometric theory, monetary policy and corporate governance has slumped. Meanwhile, papers on development, crime and gender are on the up. This could perhaps be because of changing intellectual interests, or maybe demand-side pressures, such as policymaker priorities and external funding…

Research from Prashant Garg, a postdoctoral researcher at Bocconi University, and Thiemo Fetzer, economics professor at Warwick University, finds causal claims in economics have jumped. In 1990, 7.7 per cent of claims made in the literature were causal. In 2023, that hit 32.6 per cent. Additionally, papers with more causal claims are more likely to receive citations and wind up in top five journals, the research suggests.

Here is more from Harvey Nriapia at the FT.

The post How economics is changing appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Lala Batters Hawaii

August 16, 2026
August 15, 2026
The spiraling clouds of a tropical storm are centered near the Hawaiian island of Kauaʻi.
The spiraling clouds of a tropical storm are centered near the Hawaiian island of Kauaʻi.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
The spiraling clouds of a hurricane appear near the Hawaiian Islands. Its eye is just south of the Island of Hawaiʻi.
The spiraling clouds of a hurricane appear near the Hawaiian Islands. Its eye is just south of the Island of Hawaiʻi.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
The spiraling clouds of a tropical storm are centered near the Hawaiian island of Kauaʻi.
The spiraling clouds of a tropical storm are centered near the Hawaiian island of Kauaʻi.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
The spiraling clouds of a hurricane appear near the Hawaiian Islands. Its eye is just south of the Island of Hawaiʻi.
The spiraling clouds of a hurricane appear near the Hawaiian Islands. Its eye is just south of the Island of Hawaiʻi.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
August 16, 2026
August 15, 2026
Lala skirts south of the Island of Hawaiʻi as a category 1 hurricane in the right image, acquired by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the Suomi NPP satellite on August 15, 2026, at about 1:45 p.m. Hawaii Standard Time (23:45 Universal Time). The storm decreased in intensity while tracking northwest and was a tropical storm when the VIIRS on the NOAA-20 satellite captured the left image about 24 hours later. NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin.

The Island of Hawaiʻi narrowly avoided a direct landfall by Hurricane Lala in mid-August 2026. The storm nonetheless delivered serious damage as it passed just south of the island on August 15 (above, right) as a category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

Lala brought rainfall totals exceeding 20 inches (50 centimeters) to parts of the island, causing flash flooding and ongoing mudflow risks. The highest rainfall total for the storm—43.55 inches (110.6 centimeters) as of the morning of August 17—was recorded at Laupāhoehoe, on the coast northwest of Hilo. Lala downed trees, damaged bridges, and knocked homes off their foundations. Coastal areas were pummeled by large waves, while the summit of Mauna Kea, over 13,000 feet (4,000 meters) above sea level, experienced blizzard conditions.

By early afternoon on August 16, when the other image (left) was acquired, the storm had tracked northwest, roughly parallel to the island chain, and was southwest of Kauaʻi. Lala had decreased in intensity to a tropical storm, with sustained winds of 65 miles (105 kilometers) per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center.

While the Island of Hawaiʻi took the brunt of the storm, other islands also saw destructive effects. Strong winds caused widespread power outages, with more than 220,000 customers statewide without power as of the afternoon of August 16, according to news reports. Across the islands, wind and rain damaged infrastructure, and floodwaters and debris rendered roads impassable.

It has been an active tropical cyclone season in the Eastern Pacific so far in 2026, meteorologists note, consistent with what scientists expect during an El Niño, which has been underway as of mid-June. Warm water in the equatorial Pacific—the hallmark of El Niño—and the moisture and energy it transfers to the atmosphere help fuel nascent tropical storms. Lack of wind shear, another typical El Niño pattern in this region, also encourages tropical storms to develop and strengthen. The Atlantic hurricane season, in contrast, has been relatively calm, as greater wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea during an El Niño inhibits hurricane formation by dissipating the upward motion of heat.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCEGIBS/Worldview, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Story by Lindsey Doermann.

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Monday 17 August 1663

Up, and then fell into discourse, my wife and I to Ashwell, and much against my will I am fain to express a willingness to Ashwell that she should go from us, and yet in my mind I am glad of it, to ease me of the charge. So she is to go to her father this day. And leaving my wife and her talking highly, I went away by coach with Sir J. Minnes and Sir W. Batten to St. James’s, and there attended of course the Duke. And so to White Hall, where I met Mr. Moore, and he tells me with great sorrow of my lord’s being debauched he fears by this woman at Chelsey, which I am troubled at, and resolve to speak to him of it if I can seasonably.

Thence home, where I dined, and after dinner comes our old mayde Susan to look for a gorgett that she says she has lost by leaving it here, and by many circumstances it being clear to me that Hannah, our present cook-mayde, not only has it, but had it on upon her necke when Susan came in, and shifted it off presently upon her coming in, I did charge her so home with it (having a mind to have her gone from us), that in a huff she told us she would be gone to-night if I would pay her her wages, which I was glad and my wife of, and so fetched her her wages, and though I am doubtful that she may convey some things away with her clothes, my wife searching them, yet we are glad of her being so gone, and so she went away in a quarter of an hour’s time. Being much amused at this to have never a maid but Ashwell, that we do not intend to keep, nor a boy, and my wife and I being left for an hour, till my brother came in, alone in the house, I grew very melancholy, and so my brother being come in I went forth to Mrs. Holden’s, to whom I formerly spoke about a girle to come to me instead of a boy, and the like I did to Mrs. Standing and also to my brother Tom, whom I found at an alehouse in Popinjay ally drinking, and I standing with him at the gate of the ally, Ashwell came by, and so I left Tom and went almost home with her, talking of her going away. I find that she is willing to go, and told her (though behind my back my wife has told her that it was more my desire than hers that she should go, which was not well), that seeing my wife and she could not agree I did choose rather (was she my sister) have her gone, it would be better for us and for her too. To which she willing agreed, and will not tell me anything but that she do believe that my wife would have some body there that might not be so liable to give me information of things as she takes her to be. But, however, I must later to prevent all that.

I parted with her near home, agreeing to take no notice of my coming along with her, and so by and by came home after her.

Where I find a sad distracted house, which troubles me. However, to supper and prayers and to bed. And while we were getting to bed my wife began to discourse to her, and plainly asked whether she had got a place or no. And the other answered that she could go if we would to one of our own office, to which we agreed if she would. She thereupon said no; she would not go to any but where she might teach children, because of keeping herself in use of what things she had earnt, which she do not here nor will there, but only dressing. By which I perceive the wench is cunning, but one very fit for such a place, and accomplished to be woman to any lady in the land. So quietly to sleep, it being a cold night.

But till my house is settled, I do not see that I can mind my business of the office, which grieves me to the heart. But I hope all will over in a little time, and I hope to the best. This day at Mrs. Holden’s I found my new low crowned beaver according to the present fashion made, and will be sent home to-morrow.

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SEOPS adds second Waymaker rideshare mission

Falcon 9 Transporter-17

Launch services provider SEOPS has added a second dedicated rideshare mission after seeing high demand for one announced less than three months ago.

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A rocket crashed into the moon. It was harmless, but the next one might not be.

A concept for a later phase of NASA’s proposed lunar base. Credit: NASA

Earlier this month, a discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage crashed into the lunar surface at 8,700 kilometers per hour. This was not a controlled landing. The stage had been […]

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Long March 12 launches despite recent 7A failure, Long March 2C launches satellite for UAE

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Lynk and Omnispace form Elveo Mobile to advance D2D services

Lynk Global has completed its merger with Omnispace and rebranded as Elveo Mobile, adding globally coordinated S-band spectrum to expand direct-to-device satellite services beyond basic messaging.

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HEO to use Planet satellites for non-Earth imaging

Planet and HEO

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New EU sanctions target leaders of Russia’s space industry

Moscow, Russia, as viewed in 2017 by Hodoyoshi-1 satellite. Credit: Axelspace Corporation, CC BY-SA 4.0

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ULA names Peller as new CEO

United Launch Alliance has named Mark Peller, a longtime manager and executive at the company, as its new chief executive.

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L3Harris names space sector leader Sam Mehta CEO after Kubasik steps down

Christopher Kubasik exits after board investigation into unspecified conduct

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The 77th International Astronautical Congress (IAC 2026) is the One Space Event You Cannot Miss

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How Do Washington State Families Choose the Right Residential Mental Health Program for Teens?

Finding the right residential mental health program for a teenager ranks among the hardest calls any family makes. The stakes are high. Options vary widely, and the jargon different providers use makes comparison feel nearly impossible. For Washington State families, this search gets more complex, as proximity, state licensing standards, and insurance networks all limit what’s actually available. Moving beyond slick brochures and marketing claims requires knowing what to ask, which credentials matter, and how to spot whether a program’s philosophy aligns with your teen’s situation. This article walks through the decision-making process step by step, so you can make an informed choice instead of relying on luck.

What Washington State Families Should Evaluate First

Most families begin by looking for a care option that feels supportive, structured, and appropriate for their teen’s needs. A  mental health retreat for teens from Washington State  can be a helpful option for families who want their child to receive focused emotional support in a calm, therapeutic setting. Such programs often give teens space to step away from daily pressure while still receiving consistent clinical care, routine, and guidance. Teens may take part in individual therapy, group sessions, family involvement, and therapeutic activities that help them better understand their emotions and build healthier coping skills. This kind of setting can be especially valuable when weekly therapy is not enough, but hospitalization is not the right fit. Washington State’s Department of Children, Youth, and Families sets licensing requirements for residential facilities, so confirming current state licensure is a practical first step when reviewing options. It helps families feel more confident that the program they choose is operating with proper oversight and care standards.

How Clinical Credentials and Accreditation Signal Program Quality

Accreditation from an established body stands as one of the clearest markers that a residential program meets genuine standards of care. The Joint Commission and the Commission on Accreditation of Rehabilitation Facilities rank among the most respected accrediting organizations in behavioral health. Programs holding one of these credentials have undergone independent review of clinical practices, staffing levels, and safety measures. Here’s the thing: state licensing sets a minimum, not a maximum. Two state-licensed programs can look identical on forms while delivering completely different quality. Beyond accreditation, examine the clinical staff’s credentials. Look for licensed clinicians, therapists with active LCSW, LPC, or PhD licensure in Washington State, rather than supervised trainees filling the roster. Evidence-based approaches like Dialectical Behavior Therapy or Cognitive Behavioral Therapy give you clearer insight into day-to-day treatment, and both have published research you can read yourself.

What Diagnostic Fit Means for Your Teen’s Treatment Plan

Every residential program doesn’t treat every condition. Placing a teen in a program misaligned with their diagnosis can derail progress before treatment really starts. A facility centered on substance use operates from a different clinical ground than one built for adolescents with mood disorders, trauma, or ADHD mixed with anxiety. Before touring anywhere, pull together your teen’s current diagnosis records and prior treatment summaries. Share these directly with the intake coordinator and ask whether the program has actual experience treating that specific picture. Ask how many teens currently enrolled share similar diagnoses. Good programs answer plainly instead of providing vague reassurances. Consider neurodivergent needs too; autistic teens or those with sensory processing differences need clinical teams trained specifically for that work, and not all residential programs have it. Diagnostic fit isn’t a later detail. It’s one of the first cuts that determines whether a program belongs on your shortlist at all.

How Family Involvement and Location Shape the Outcome

Research on adolescent mental health treatment keeps pointing to one clear finding: better outcomes happen when families stay genuinely involved. That finding matters for Washington State families thinking about geography. Programs far from home make regular family therapy harder to attend; visits happen less often; and the transition back to daily life softens. Proximity isn’t always possible, and some families look out of state when nothing local fits. In those situations, how the program handles remote family participation, video therapy sessions, and structured communication plans becomes crucial. Ask any program how family therapy gets scheduled, how often parents receive clinical updates, and what discharge planning looks like. Vague answers on those three questions deserve serious weight, even if the facility itself looks impressive.

Questions to Ask About Aftercare Before You Enroll

The jump out of residential treatment counts as one of the riskiest moments in a teen’s recovery; families who ask about aftercare before signing up stand far better odds. Strong programs start building a step-down plan from day one. That means choosing what comes next, partial hospitalization, intensive outpatient, or weekly therapy, and connecting with local providers in your teen’s area. And ask whether the program has established relationships with clinicians in Washington State. Does discharge planning bring families in directly, or is it just administrative paperwork happening behind the scenes? How long does the clinical team stay accessible after your teen leaves? Some programs provide a set window of post-discharge check-ins; that window can be the difference between a smooth return to school and symptoms resurging. Aftercare isn’t a side note. It’s how seriously a program takes the whole recovery arc.

Conclusion

Washington State families picking a residential mental health program face a process that rewards doing homework and asking tough questions. Start with state licensure and accreditation checks, then move to diagnostic fit and clinical credentials before anything else. Build family involvement and geography into the decision; they shape both treatment quality and what happens when your teen comes home. Treat aftercare planning as a core program feature, not an enrollment afterthought. The right residential mental health program for your teen is the one matching their clinical reality, keeps your family in the loop throughout, and sets everyone up for what follows discharge.

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Making Subscriptions Prove They Still Belong

Subscriptions do not usually leave with a dramatic speech. They slip out of your bank account in quiet little bites, month after month, while pretending to be part of your normal life. That is what makes them tricky. The problem is not always that a subscription is terrible. It is that it has become invisible.

This is why a subscription audit works better when you treat it less like a budgeting exercise and more like a loyalty test. The question is not, “Was this a good idea when I signed up?” The better question is, “If this disappeared tomorrow, would I care enough to bring it back?” That shift matters, especially for households trying to coordinate shared spending with tools like budgeting apps for couples , where tiny recurring charges can stack up faster than either person realizes.

A lot of people assume the way to fix subscription creep is to study every charge, compare prices, and make a perfect spreadsheet. That can help, but it also keeps you stuck in decision mode. Subscriptions are good at surviving on hesitation. If you are not sure whether to cancel something, it usually gets another month. Then another. Then somehow you are still paying for a yoga app you stopped opening in February.

Stop Asking Whether It Is Worth the Price

There is a sneaky mental trap in subscription spending. We tend to judge a service by its potential value instead of its real life value. You might say you *could* watch those documentaries, *could* use that meal planner, *could* take those language lessons, *could* finish that premium course library. But “could” is expensive.

A more useful standard is frequency plus friction. How often do you use it, and how much hassle would it create if it vanished? If the answer is “not much” to both, it is probably not essential right now. That does not mean it is bad. It just means it is not currently earning a permanent seat in your monthly expenses.

This approach borrows from how behavior change actually works. People tend to stick with routines that fit naturally into daily life, while low use habits fade when they are not reinforced. The National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases describes behavior change as a process that moves from intention into action and then maintenance, which is a useful lens for spending too. If a subscription has not made it into your maintenance stage, it is probably still an aspiration, not a routine. You can see that pattern in guidance on changing habits for better health .

Use A 90 Day Moratorium Instead of a Forever Decision

Here is the simple rule: cancel any nonessential subscription you do not use regularly, then wait 90 days.

That is the whole experiment.

A 90 day moratorium works because it cuts through the drama. You are not declaring that a service is stupid, wasteful, or banned for life. You are just asking it to prove it belongs. If it matters, you will feel the absence. If it does not, you will probably forget it ever existed.

This is much easier psychologically than trying to rank every subscription from best to worst. A trial pause creates real evidence. Instead of guessing whether you need a service, you get to observe your own behavior. Did you miss the cloud storage upgrade? Did anyone in the house notice the extra streaming platform was gone? Did the meditation app leave a hole in your week, or just in your wallet?

That is valuable because people are often overly optimistic about future behavior. We picture our most organized, disciplined, aspirational selves. We imagine that next month will be the month we finally use all the premium features. In reality, habits tend to follow cues and routines, not good intentions alone. NIH coverage on creating healthy habits  highlights how repetition and consistency shape what actually sticks. Subscriptions are no different. If a service is not woven into your routine now, paying for the possibility of future use is usually a losing bet.

What To Cancel First

Not every subscription deserves equal scrutiny. Start with the ones that hide best.

Look first at convenience subscriptions. These are the services that promise to save time, reduce stress, or keep life organized. Grocery add ons, delivery memberships, premium calendar tools, cloud upgrades, curated boxes, and “pro” productivity services often survive because they sound responsible. But if they are not actively solving a recurring problem, they are just polished expenses.

Next, review overlap. Many people pay for multiple services that do almost the same thing. Maybe one platform has better movies, another has better shows, and a third is there because one person liked a single series six months ago. The same thing happens with music, workouts, storage, and software. When subscriptions overlap, the winner should be the one you actually use, not the one that once felt exciting.

Then check identity subscriptions. These are the ones tied to who you think you are or want to become: the reader, the runner, the investor, the home chef, the person who definitely journals. These can be the hardest to cancel because dropping them can feel like giving up on a version of yourself. But often, canceling them is not quitting. It is just refusing to rent that identity every month.

How To Tell If You Actually Miss It

During the 90 day pause, pay attention to specific moments. General guilt does not count. Vague anxiety does not count either.

What counts is interruption.

  • Did you try to use the service and realize it was gone?
  • Did its absence force you to spend more elsewhere?
  • Did it remove something meaningful from your routine?
  • Did more than one person in the household notice?

Those are signs a subscription may deserve a return. On the other hand, if the only discomfort is the thought, “I should probably be using that,” that is a strong sign you made the right call.

It also helps to keep a tiny note on your phone titled “missed subscriptions.” If you genuinely notice a canceled service, write it down. At the end of 90 days, renew only the ones that showed up on that list for a real reason. Everything else failed the test.

Why This Saves More Than Money

The obvious benefit is financial. You can save hundreds of dollars a year by quietly trimming services you barely touch. But the bigger win is mental clarity.

Every recurring charge represents a standing decision from your past self. Too many of them create noise. They make your finances feel heavier than they need to be. When you clear out subscriptions that no longer serve you, your budget starts reflecting your actual life again, not your old plans, abandoned hobbies, or marketing influenced optimism.

That is especially helpful in shared finances. Few things create low grade money tension faster than a pile of subscriptions nobody fully owns but both people fund. A 90 day moratorium gives couples a neutral process. Instead of arguing about whether a subscription is “worth it,” you let reality decide.

Subscriptions do not need to justify their existence with a perfect cost benefit essay. They just need to be used, missed, or clearly useful. If they cannot pass that simple test, they do not belong in your monthly lineup.

Let them leave. If they matter, they will make their case. If they do not, your bank account will be the first to notice.

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2026 Conference Races: Which College Football Favorites Are Fans Watching

As the 2026 college football season approaches its kickoff later this month, anticipation across the nation has reached an absolute fever pitch. The sport enters another thrilling year defined by an expanded playoff format, high-profile transfer portal moves, and realigned conference boundaries that create unmatched weekly drama. College football fans, bettors, and analysts are meticulously studying roster depth, returning signal-callers, and non-conference clash schedules to pinpoint who will hoist conference trophies come December.

The 2026 conference championship races showcase a fascinating blend of established powerhouses regaining their peak, emerging programs defending recent historical runs, and ambitious dark horses aiming to crash the College Football Playoff picture. Across every major conference, fanbases are locking their eyes on a select group of heavyweights poised to define the upcoming season.

Longhorns, Bulldogs, and a Stacked Contender Field

The Southeastern Conference once again presents a brutal weekly gauntlet that commands national attention. Heading into the 2026 campaign, Steve Sarkisian’s Texas Longhorns and Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs stand at the forefront of the SEC title conversation, with  NCAAF conference winner odds  reflecting the high expectations surrounding both programs. Texas enters the fall with fourth-year quarterback Arch Manning firmly commanding the offense.

After leading a dominant stretch to close out last season, Manning is surrounded by one of the premier receiving corps in the country, bolstered by key transfer additions and an upgraded offensive line. Georgia remains an undeniable powerhouse that refuses to reload quietly. Quarterback Gunner Stockton takes full ownership of the Bulldogs’ offense behind one of the most physical offensive lines in college football. While Smart’s program undergoes some retooling at wide receiver, the Bulldogs’ defensive unit continues to set the gold standard for depth and speed in the SEC.

Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana Lead the Charge

The Big Ten enters 2026 riding a wave of national dominance, having claimed  three consecutive national titles . At the pinnacle of preseason projections, Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes hold the top spot in the Super 16 Poll and preseason rankings. The Buckeyes boast an explosive offense directed by quarterback Julian Sayin and star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who is widely regarded as one of the most unstoppable playmakers in college football. Though defensive coordinator Matt Patricia must rebuild a front line that lost several starters, Ohio State’s overall roster talent makes them the standard-bearer in Big Ten futures markets.

Challenging Ohio State at the top of the conference are Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks. Led by Heisman candidate quarterback Dante Moore, the Ducks feature a dynamic passing game surrounded by playmakers like Jamari Johnson and Dakorien Moore. Oregon’s balanced attack and physical style position them as a prime contender to capture the Big Ten crown.

Texas Tech and BYU Lead the Big 12 Race

While the Big Ten and SEC showcase top-heavy powers, the Big 12 offers pure, unadulterated competitive parity. No single program holds a dominant monopoly over the conference, creating an electric environment where any contender can emerge. The Texas Tech Red Raiders enter August 2026 as the highest-ranked Big 12 team in preseason projections. Armed with a high-flying offense and an aggressive defensive front, Texas Tech is viewed as a slight favorite to reach the Big 12 Championship Game.

However, the Red Raiders face fierce opposition from a battle-tested BYU team that returns veteran trench play, alongside a hungry Utah squad eager to reclaim top-tier dominance. Dark-horse programs like Houston and Kansas State also possess the veteran experience necessary to cause chaos down the stretch. With automatic playoff entry guaranteed to the Big 12 champion, every weekend slate in this conference carries immense postseason implications.

Miami Leads the ACC While Notre Dame Takes a Different Path

In the ACC, Mario Cristobal’s Miami Hurricanes enter the season as the consensus favorite to hoist the conference trophy. Coming off an impressive run to the national title game, led by outgoing quarterback Carson Beck, Miami landed highly anticipated Duke transfer quarterback Darian Mensah to direct an explosive perimeter attack.

Notre Dame provides a different perspective on the postseason picture. As an independent, the Fighting Irish do not compete for a conference championship, making their regular-season performance particularly important to their College Football Playoff hopes. Led by quarterback C.J. Carr, Marcus Freeman’s squad enters 2026 among the national contenders and will need to build a strong résumé without the opportunity to add a conference-title victory.

The Road to December Starts Now

The 2026 college football season is shaping up to be one of the most competitive campaigns in recent memory, with established powers and emerging challengers spread across every major conference. Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas Tech, BYU, Miami, and Notre Dame each enter the season carrying significant expectations, but the depth of competition means none can afford a slow start.

Every major matchup will have the potential to reshape conference standings and influence the broader College Football Playoff picture. With so much talent returning across the country, fans have plenty of reasons to follow the conference races from opening weekend through championship season.

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We Tracked a Shipment of Rare Books. It Ended at an Amazon AI Training Facility

We Tracked a Shipment of Rare Books. It Ended at an Amazon AI Training Facility

Excellent piece of reporting from 404 Media. For a while now there have been stories of book dealers receiving orders for large volumes of books from apparently price-insensitive anonymous customers, widely suspected to be companies looking to scan them for AI training (see my previous coverage of Anthropic's book scanning from June 2025.)

404 Media investigated with an AirTag!

In July, one bookseller told me they received a very large order of around 1,000 books on Biblio, one of these marketplaces. The seller agreed to put an Apple AirTag provided by 404 Media in one of the books included in this order so we could see where the book was going. And by extension, which company, AI or otherwise, was behind this massive order.

The book ended up delivered to the VGT3 corner of the LAS8 Amazon facility in the north east of Las Vegas, where the entrance carried this on-the-nose logo of a dinosaur with a book!

Photo of an office entrance. A logo in the window shows a red tyrannosaurus with a book, its claws clearly digging in and with a hint that it is more interested in destruction than reading.

Photo credit: 404 Media

Online forum discussions between Amazon workers confirmed that VGT3 destructively scans large volumes of books.

Tags: amazon, journalism, ai, training-data, ai-ethics, 404-media

Markdown SVG upgrades

I started building my markdown-svg-renderer tool in May, but I've since added enough features to it that it's worth talking about here again.

It's evolved into my ideal tool for sharing Markdown transcripts that include SVG documents. Given my proclivity for drawing pelicans riding bicycles this is a problem that I needed to solve!

The tool is very simple. Navigate to markdown-svg-renderer in your browser and paste in some Markdown to see it rendered... or save that Markdown to a CORS-friendly URL or a GitHub Gist and paste in a URL to that document.

The URL option will give you a bookmarkable page, for example https://tools.simonwillison.net/markdown-svg-renderer#url=https%3A%2F%2Fgist.github.com%2Fsimonw%2F6f9e48293be5c916652d29f0dc0b0657 - which bakes in the URL to this Gist.

If you visit the Gist you'll see raw SVG:

beautiful-circle.md. Here's a self-contained SVG — a "compass study" of a circle with construction lines, a slowly rotating tick ring, and an orbiting accent dot: a block of SVG code

In the rendered tool that looks like this instead:

The same text, but now the code block has been replaced by a tabbed panel. The selected tab reads "Rendered" and shows the rendered PNG. The other tabs are PNG, JPEG, MP4, and Code

As you can see, that SVG block in the Markdown has been transformed into a rendered SVG (in this case animated) plus several tabs.

The tabs are the really fun bit. The PNG and JPEG tabs render that SVG to those image formats in the browser and lets you copy or download them - useful for sharing on platforms that don't support SVG directly.

The MP4 tab is new today - it examines the SVG to see if it contains any animations, attempts to guess how long the looped video should be, then renders a whole bunch of frames of the animation and loads 30+MB of ffmpeg.wasm so it can compile those frames into an MP4 video using the full power of FFMPEG compiled to WebAssembly and running in the browser.

Being able to turn an animated SVG into a MP4 again makes it easy to share on platforms that can't support SVG animation natively. It's a neat trick!

Tags: svg, markdown, tools

The Misery Will Continue Until Morale Improves

According to an old military maxim, amateurs talk about strategy, professionals talk about logistics. But these days we need a third category: Immature, insecure guys think that war is about acting tough and looking cool.

Hi, Paul Krugman with a podcast update for today. I want to weigh in on the incredible rash of stories about how Trump and company are eviscerating the military. It is truly remarkable. If there’s one thing that we thought that the United States was still kind of number one at, it was that we had the world’s premier military. Now, of course, we managed to rather quickly effectively lose the war with Iran, although current management will never admit it.

But also just a series of stories, some of them related to that war, some of them going beyond and to other areas that just are truly shocking, even for somebody like me, who had no expectation that this administration would be doing any good for the nation.

Just to remember the story: So first we had the big warning that the U.S. military was basically running out of ammunition. That the precision missiles that are so essential to waging war were largely gone, expended unproductively against Iran. And clearly the cost benefit calculus was a disaster because the Iranians were sending cheap drones and we were using multi-million dollar weapons in an attempt to counter them.

After that, we got the story about the horrific conditions on board the USS Lincoln, the aircraft carrier that’s been stationed for a very long time without, it appears, adequate resupply and with toilets flooding. Apparently just horrific conditions, which turn out to be not unique to that ship: Other ships are having problems. There’s the USS Boxer, an amphibious assault ship, which apparently has run out of feminine hygiene products, among other things.

Okay, so we have those horrific stories. And then we have the stories about Trump intervening. Demanding, first, that the Navy construct a whole new class of ships, Trump-class battleships, which are useless and would be sitting ducks. Then demanding that the Navy replace modern catapults with steam catapults, which he thinks are cooler. And then demanding that they relocate the command tower on aircraft carriers because he wants them to look more like the way they looked during World War II.

Is this America? I mean, think about the American way of war. We are not a warrior nation, which is fine. We are a lot of other things.

We were a nation that was supreme in the arts of peace. We were a nation of know-how. America won its wars by doing the arts of peace right, by.building better and more stuff than other countries. By getting our act together in ways that didn’t necessarily involve fighting.

Of course, you always need courageous warriors. You always need people able and willing to risk death in the service of their nation. But what America was supreme at was logistics. If you ask how did America and its allies pull off D-Day, well, a lot of it was being able to deliver supplies to the beaches of Normandy in a way that the Germans never thought was possible.

America was always the place, the country that was really good at logistics. For us to be not feeding our sailors, not able to keep ships that are not, after all, under fire all the time, to keep the plumbing working, that is incredible.

The idea that the president is imposing his personal aesthetic preferences to undo design decisions that were made by military professionals is also basically incredible.

Okay, what is this all about? And what happened? Some of it is specifically military, but mostly it’s not. I think these military failings should be put in the same context as the frantic and disastrous destruction and redesign of Washington, D.C. The demolition of the East Wing. The disastrous attempt to refurbish the reflecting pool to reflect Trump’s aesthetics. Even the gold leaf and gold lettering that is polluting the White House. All of this is really part of the same picture.So what is going on here?

Obviously we have a seriously mentally ill, mentally deficient guy with his finger on the button. The president of the United States is clearly dissociating, I’ve been calling it sundowning because I personally saw sundowning during my father’s awful last year.

Trump is not in full possession of his faculties, and he is obsessing about things that are really just kind of remnant ego trips. I haven’t read the Haberman book yet, but reportedly he spends a large fraction of his time and probably a larger fraction of his mental energy on his redecoration projects, which aside from all being carried out disastrously are also in incredibly bad taste. But this is where he is. He’s actually more interested in his giant, tacky, gilded ballroom than he is in the fate of the nation.

But how does somebody like this end up able to impose his will on these disastrous things? How does he end up able to eviscerate the military?

Well, part of it is that this is a wannabe authoritarian regime. We’re in a peculiar state now where the United States is not yet a police state. It is not yet a place where the secret police will cart you away for expressing the wrong opinion, unless you are not a white U.S. citizen. Maybe the time is coming when that will happen. But in any case, we are not yet East Germany under the Stasi. We are not yet Putin’s Russia.

But the Republican Party, senior politicians, who should be feeling that they have at least some dignity, ability to take a stand, behave as if they were living in an authoritarian state. They’re obviously terrified. They’re afraid to express any dissent. They go along with Bush’s — see, I’m dissociating, living in the past myself. They’re going along with Trump’s wishes.

On top of that, I think it really helps to think of the ruling party in America right now as being a party that behaves as if we were a full-on authoritarian state. And one of the things we learn about in studying how authoritarian regimes behave is, first of all, that the leader actually can be possibly the worst informed person in the nation because nobody dares to tell him bad news. We’re hearing this a lot about Putin, that he doesn’t know how badly his war is going. Well, Trump in many ways probably still doesn’t understand how badly his war is going.

The really striking thing about the munitions shortage and now the horrible conditions on US ships is that to the extent that any action has been taken on either of those issues is it has been only after extensive reporting in the press. So now the Pentagon is talking about a crash program to have defense manufacturers produce more of the missiles that we’ve been running out of. But it’s not clear it’s even started yet, and that call didn’t happen until many months into the war, whereas the munition shortage was obvious to independent observers just a few weeks inthat we were expending munitions that we couldn’t replace. Nothing happened until there was widespread press reporting.

The USS Lincoln has finally been recalled for refit and shore leave. But that didn’t happen until after many press stories about it, all of which were denied, but it’s very obvious just looking at the behavior that the Pentagon and Hegseth and Trump finally reacted saying, oh, I guess something needs to be done. We can’t let this go on. But they didn’t do it until after the press reported.

Now, is this because they’re totally callous? Well, they are. They don’t care at all. The people who yell support the troops most loudly are the people who actually have no interest whatsoever in supporting the troops. But I think it’s probably also the case that they may not have known. That nobody told Trump that we were running out of missiles. He may have read some press stories to that effect, but he said that’s all fake news and nobody within the administration was willing to tell him.

They may not have been willing to tell Hegseth either, who by all accounts flies into a rage and punishes anybody who brings him bad news.So they just didn’t hear about this. They didn’t hear about the munitions. They didn’t hear about the conditions for US sailors until the drumbeat fromthe press became too loud for them to remain insulated, to remain in denial.

So this is what happens. This is the problem with authoritarian regimes. It goes with the related problem with authoritarian regimes, which is that they have a single point of failure. You elevate one person to a position of untouchable authority, and if that person loses it, that person is sundowning, there is no recourse.

One more thing to say about what’s going on is that authoritarian regimes systematically promote incompetence. This is Hannah Arendt on totalitarianism. That it’s not just that they value loyalty above competence. They actually actively dislike competence. Because someone who is competent, someone who knows what they’re doing, might stand on their dignity, might refuse to follow instructions from above. You need third-raters or worse.

This has long been true in areas that I know something about. It’s been true of right-wing economics forever. It’s long been the case that although there are plenty of conservative, competent economists, what the right-wing wanted, even pre-Trump, was creatures like Steve Moore or Larry Kudlow, people who had no idea actually how to do economic analysis, but were unimpeachably, unquestionably loyal because after all, they had no constituency to fall back on.

So we have this mix of leader principle, Führerprinzip. Yes, I think we’re allowed to use the original German here. Information blackout at the top because nobody wants to tell the leader bad news. And incompetence as a general principle throughout the government.

And if you want to understand how the Reflecting Pool happened, if you want to understand how we ended up with this hole in the ground, that was previously the east wing of the White House, all of this is fundamentally the same stuff and it’s true of lots of other areas of policy as well.

Still, I guess most of us thoughtI thought, mea culpa — that the military would be among the last places to be hit by this. That, first of all, it should be obvious even to people likeTrump and Hegseth that you don’t muck too much with the military, that you don’t destroy the one instrument you really have, and also that the military itself had, so I thought, a strong enough culture, was highly enough respected among the populace that the military would be able to stand up and say no.

But it turns out that I was wrong. And so instead of being insulated from the craziness and incompetence, the military is actually possibly the most acute victim of everything that’s happening.

At this point they might manage to start feeding the sailors and fix the toilets, though I wouldn’t put 100% odds on that. But the broader problem of really destroying one of the last real sources of U.S. strength, that is not going to go away. Instead, it’s going to be the same thing. And the misery will continue until morale improves.

Have a great day.

Links 8/17/26

Links for you. Science:

More nor’easters. West Coast landslides. Raging wildfires. Here’s how El Niño could hijack the world’s weather this year.
New Dinosaur Discovery in Zimbabwe: Mini-sauropod That May Have Been Bipedal
What Big Bug “Attacked” An ESPN Reporter At Rams Camp?
We Wouldn’t Be Here Without Poop
No Bosses: Ancient Engineering Marvel Was Built Without Rulers, Study Suggests
Memories Mysteriously Survive After Brain Shutdown, And Scientists Don’t Know Why

Other:

AI slop is swamping a House office that drafts US laws
Republicans Should Suffer For Their Smears
Armed troops have patrolled D.C. for 1 year now. It’s challenging democratic norms
Oliver Larkin Wants to End the “Reflexive Moderation” of Florida Democrats
Propaganda With Better Manners Is Still Propaganda
Corporate Power Approaches Escape Velocity
Have Democrats Fully Capitalized On Trump’s Iran War Failure?
Grok deepfakes of nude Arkansas teen have ‘completely devastated’ family, lawsuit says
Hook and Squeeze: How Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations.
Years of Trump Support Came Undone in 15 Minutes in an Airport.
Three Vaccines Is Less Vaccine Than One Vaccine, According To Donald Trump
Mark Zuckerberg doesn’t understand how to live
A 4,000-year-old clay tablet captures a kid whining that his mom’s homemade clothes aren’t cool enough
Report supporting Australia’s teen social media ban appears to contain AI hallucinations, Senate hears (lol)
The Mayor Who Said ‘No’ When Flock Came to Town
Our Bodies, Our Panopticons
This Tool Unmasks the Shadowy World of Ads that Track Your Location
The gospel of science denial, from Galileo to RFK Jr.
Rise of the Memelords
Researchers Show How Meta’s ‘Pervert Glasses’ Are Used to Harass Women
Mike Rogers is the real radical in the Michigan Senate race
Copyright Is Not Enough
Meta Patents AI Glasses to Use Facial Recognition to Identify People, Make Highlight Reels of Your Dinner Party
The Flock uprising is just the beginning
Person Hides Prompt Injection in Legal Filing Telling AI to Side With Them
AOC exposes MAGA’s motherhood hypocrisy
Man Arrested in Texas For Cussing at a County Meeting (about surveillance)
The Real Reason Data Center Gas Power Plants Are So Dirty
It’s a Third World After All
“AI-Powered” Surveillance Networks are Worse Than You Know

Hacking Public Wi-Fi DNS to Steal Credentials

Criminals are hacking into public Wi-Fi devices—at hotels, conference centers, and so on—around the world and changing their DNS settings. The goal is to redirect users to fake login pages and steal their credentials.

Monday assorted links

1. Where do the great American comedians hail from?

2. General thoughts on biosafety.

3. “Violet Hensley Dies at 109; Ozarks Fiddler Made Opry Debut at 99” (NYT).  She also handcrafted 73 fiddles, appeared on The Beverly Hillbillies, and considered bluegrass too modern for her.  She had nine children as well.

4. Which campaiging politicians are using AI the most, and other issues?

5. AI tutoring with Khanmigo.

6. Tommy John, RIP (NYT).

7. China is hoping to influence the AIs through data supply (NYT).

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABNT20 KNHC 190524
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190523
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lala, located several hundred miles west of Kauai, Hawaii.

South-Southwest of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico around the end of
the week. Gradual development of this system is likely thereafter,
and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is showing some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within a few days while
the system moves generally westward across the western portion of
the east Pacific and into the Central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


What should I ask Roman Mars?

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him.  Most of all he is obsessed with design, here is Wikipedia:

Roman Mars is an American radio producer. He is the host and producer of 99% Invisible, a KALW radio show and podcast, and a founder of the podcast collective Radiotopia, which he describes as efforts “to broaden the radio landscape [and] make shows that aren’t bound by conventions” of public radio in the United States. In 2020, he co-authored the New York Times best seller The 99% Invisible City with Kurt Kohlstedt…Mars, with Elizabeth Joh, also hosts the podcast What Roman Mars Can Learn About Con Law.

His TED talk on city flags is a good introduction to his thought.

So what should I ask him?

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They’re Making Record Profits, but Oil Companies Still Won’t ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’

Grist logoThe War in the Middle East Has Sent Big Oil’s Profits Soaring. Companies Are Pocketing the Money Rather Than Expanding Drilling.

Over the last two weeks, oil companies have announced eye-popping profits from the spring quarter. Exxon Mobil pulled in $14.5 billion. Chevron landed $12 billion, its highest quarterly profit on record. Shell posted $9.8 billion — more than twice its earnings from the same time last year.

These profits are largely a product of supply constraints brought on by the war in the Middle East. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blockaded, oil suppliers have rerouted shipments over land and through pipelines. The resulting supply shortages, constrained refining capacity, and higher transportation costs have driven up oil and gasoline prices, delivering windfall profits for producers.

But companies aren’t using those profits to drill lots of new wells or explore untapped oil fields. Instead, they’re pocketing the cash and paying their shareholders, experts say. What was once an industry defined by the “drill, baby, drill” ethos is now defined by another term: “capital discipline.” It’s a phenomenon in which rampant drilling and production growth has given way to tightened belts and bigger payouts to investors.

Oil executives expected a weak financial year in 2026 due to a supply glut, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz constrained oil production and allowed companies to charge top dollar for use of their refineries outside the Middle East.

“While we didn’t anticipate the current situation, we were prepared for it,” Exxon CEO Darren Woods said in a July call with analysts, according to the Wall Street Journal. “Despite the temporary loss of approximately 10 percent of our upstream production, we delivered exceptional financial results.”

Chevron executives offered a similar assessment. In July, Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner told Bloomberg that the company didn’t adjust their production as prices rose. “We did not change any of our plan,” she said.

The Trump administration’s focus on “unleashing” U.S. energy is running headlong into oil companies’ growing commitment to financial discipline. For instance, the administration assured the public that oil majors would leap at oil fields in Venezuela after the country’s leader, Nicolas Maduro, was detained in January. But drilling stayed low throughout the administration’s efforts to pry open public lands for oil development, and corporations have been wary and selective about new opportunities in Venezuela. Similarly, even as the administration has opened up U.S. federal lands for drilling, companies have shown only a lukewarm response. As Americans bleed cash at the gas pump, President Donald Trump has even accused oil companies of “making too much money” from the war, unable to otherwise influence them to significantly ramp up their production.

“Oil and gas companies respond more to financial incentives than they do to political signaling,” said Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “They’re going to be looking at their finances first rather than politicians’ demands.”

If the U.S.-Israel war with Iran had occurred in 2012, oil companies might have seen the price spike as a chance to drill more wells. As fracking took off and prices rose during the 2000s, many companies tied their CEO compensation to production growth. Investors poured money into oil companies. But those days of aggressive production eventually ran into price crashes, especially after a Saudi-led coalition of oil-producing countries flooded the market with crude in 2014 and the COVID-19 pandemic sank prices again in 2020.

In the last five years, as investors soured on drill-happy oil companies, they embraced a new, more disciplined approach to capital expenditure. Investors wanted steadier returns. Rather than rewarding aggressive production growth, they pushed companies to focus on lower-cost drilling, restrain spending, and return more cash to shareholders.

“What is perhaps most telling about the corporate response to the turbulent forces impacting the oil and gas sector is just how little changed [in 2026],” Tom Ellacott, senior vice president of corporate research at Wood Mackenzie, said in a July press release. “Capital discipline has proved more durable than either the bears or bulls expected.”

Drilling in the U.S., as measured by the number of oil rigs, has ticked up during the summer, Williams-Derry noted, but only after the president launched a war in Iran that drove up oil prices. As of June, it had only recovered to the rate recorded at the same point last year, according to data from Baker Hughes, an energy technology company.

In this new mode, Williams-Derry said, international oil companies have used wars, notably the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, to boost their revenues so they can maintain large payments to their Wall Street investors. In times without price spikes, oil majors collectively took out debt as they paid their investors, their revenues unable to support the payments on their own, according to Williams-Derry’s internal analysis of their cash flow statements. In an ironic twist, oil companies have benefited more from constraints on global oil production than from “unleashing” it.

The climate implications of this new ethos are complicated. Already, oil companies’ tight spending has drawn most of them away from renewable energy investments. France’s TotalEnergies is the one supermajor that has charged ahead with its renewables business, though the Trump administration agreed to pay the company more than $900 million to cancel two offshore wind projects off New York and North Carolina. More discipline may also push companies to capture and resell the leaking natural gas from oil fields because maximizing revenue from existing wells has become more attractive than drilling expensive new ones. And this new attitude could keep oil and gasoline prices higher for longer, maintaining the appeal of electric vehicles and renewable energy sources. (Chinese solar panel and EV exports to some countries have spiked during the war.)

At least one analysis firm, Wood Mackenzie, believes disciplined oil companies could fall behind global demand, causing them to lose a share of the global oil market to nationally owned oil companies like Saudi Arabia’s, potentially changing the politics of energy security for Western countries.

Ultimately, however, this phase of “capital discipline” may only be temporary, Williams-Derry said. No oil company wants to be so disciplined that it begins to decline. Eventually, some growth will likely be necessary.

Still, those companies have proven as capable of benefiting from energy shocks to U.S. consumers as they are of relieving them, an important note for political actors hoping to rely on oil companies for energy security.

“At least for now, production of oil is no longer the way executives are getting paid,” Williams-Derry said. “What matters is their ability to generate cash.”

This article was originally published by Grist on August 11, 2026. Read the original source here.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

The post They’re Making Record Profits, but Oil Companies Still Won’t ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ appeared first on DCReport.org.

Satellite operators are in panic mode due to a worsening launch crisis

This should be a golden era of launch.

During the last three years, an average of 270 orbital rockets have launched from Earth, a more than threefold increase from only a decade ago. By every metric available, the launch industry is crushing it: Prices have never been more competitive, launches never more frequent, and access to space never more rapid.

Paradoxically, though, there is a growing crunch in launch availability.

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Bra doping at the women’s Tour de France

 I follow the Tour de France, partly out of an interest in performance enhancing drugs.  But from time to time other strategic kinds of doping are also discussed, as in altering the bikes rather than the bike riders.

In this connection, The Tour de France Femmes, the women's Tour, now has a discussion of bra doping, for better aerodynamics:

Bra doping at the women’s Tour de France 

"This year’s Tour de France Femmes has been rocked by allegations that some riders are artificially exaggerating their bust size to gain an aerodynamic advantage.

Several women’s World Tour teams have raised concerns that cyclists on rival teams are padding their sports bras to give them a boost in time trials, according to leading Dutch cycling news site, WielerFlits.

"The practice of “chest fairing” – also known as “bra boosting” or “bra doping” – involves increasing the surface area of the chest to change the airflow around the torso. Other forms of chest fairing include placing a water bottle or radio receiver under your cycling jersey. This can reduce drag, potentially saving valuable seconds in a time trial, where aerodynamics are crucial.

An optimised chest fairing can reduce drag by as much as 3.6%, which could gain a time-trial cyclist at least 0.78 seconds every kilometre, according to research published in the Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics in 2024. “You won’t gain tens of seconds,” said study lead Bert Blocken, an aerodynamics expert at Heriot-Watt University in Scotland. But over a 20- to 30-km time trial, “it could save enough seconds to make the difference”.

 #########

Earlier posts:

Friday, July 25, 2025  Tour de France competitions: conditioning, bikes, and drugs?

 Agence France Presse (AFP) reports on the bike race, and speculates on the historical competition between drug takers and drug testers.

 

Tuesday, July 8, 2025 Doping in the Tour de France: new dimensions

 There was a time when only riders had to be tested for doping, but advances in electric motors and batteries mean that bikes too can be suspect.  However it's the riders who get the most, increasingly sophisticated scrutiny.

The World Famous Gopher Hole Museum

Photo of two dressed-up rodents in a salon, one holding a comb with a speech bubble that reads, “I’m a beautician not a magician,” behind the other holding a mirror.

In this bittersweet portrait of a farm town in Canada, taxidermied gophers preserve a place that no longer exists

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Worm munch matters

Illustration of a worm underground beneath grass and wildflowers showing roots in a cross-section view.

The lives that slither and scurry beneath the soil’s surface are vital for ecological health: now we can listen in to them

- by Ella Browning

Read on Aeon

Somalia facts of the day

The fruits of better security are plain to see. “Business is booming,” says Gamal Hassan, the commerce minister. New buildings are going up at a frenetic pace. The district around the airport, in particular, has grown much denser (see satellite images). Dahab Tower, a 26-floor confection of luxury flats, a mall, a gym and a mosque, is due to open this year. It sits close to the spot where, in 1993, the bodies of two American soldiers were dragged through the streets after militiamen shot down a Black Hawk helicopter. Nearby is Beydan Coffee, a thriving pan-African chain founded by a Somali who returned from Sweden in the 2010s.

What explains the lull in attacks is less obvious. The government boasts that, in the words of a former intelligence officer, it has “completely closed the doors” on al-Shabab. Mr Mahmood of the ICG credits “prosaic” measures such as the spread of CCTV
cameras, and an electronic database that police equipped with iPads use to identify civilian cars at checkpoints. Plainclothes intelligence officers have been deployed in large numbers.

Here is much more from The Economist.  I will repeat my recent point that many dangerous places in the world are about to become much, much safer.

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August 16, 2026

“There are strange things done in the midnight sun by the men who moil for gold.”

My brother’s recitation of “The Cremation of Sam McGee” was the first time I ever heard epic poetry delivered—as opposed to read—and I was spellbound. (That he followed it up with Ruth Moore’s “The Ballad of the Night Charlie Tended Weir” was icing on the cake.) I loved the poem and went on to read most of Robert Service’s work, but it was years before I really understood the importance of the Yukon Gold Rush.

In “The Cremation of Sam McGee,” Service tells the story of McGee “from Tennessee, where the cotton blooms and grows,” who had “left his home in the South to roam round the pole,” although why, “God only knows.”

In fact, as Service well knew, his character McGee left home to find a fortune in the Yukon Gold Rush.

On August 16, 1896, a group of four people found gold on Rabbit Creek in the remote Yukon Territory of Canada. A Tlingit and Tagish woman known as Kate Carmack; her brother, known as Skookum Jim; her husband, George Carmack; and a third man, nicknamed Dawson Charlie, made up the family group.

Reports suggest that it was Skookum Jim who made the initial discovery, but since his white brother-in-law would be far better able than an Indigenous man to protect his mining claim, it was Carmack who filed the first legal claim for gold on the creek that would soon become known as Bonanza Creek.

Nearby miners rushed to the Klondike to stake their own claims, and news began to filter out to the rest of the world. By the following summer, 30,000 to 40,000 men, known as “stampeders,” had rushed to the Yukon to try their fortunes there.

There were many routes to the gold fields, but most cost a lot of money. The poorest adventurers took the straightest route in, leading them only about 33 miles from the Pacific waterways to a lake where they could buy or build a boat that would take them down the Yukon River to the gold fields. While short, that route took them up Chilkoot Pass: a high mountain pass they traversed by trudging up 1,500 steps cut into ice. The winter journey was easier than the summer version. In the summer, the rocks that littered the path were treacherous.

Stampeders had to carry their gear and the year’s supply of food the Canadian authorities required to prevent starvation. Altogether, the supplies—150 pounds of bacon, 400 pounds of flour, 125 pounds of beans, 15 pounds of salt, 10 pounds of coffee, mosquito netting, axes, 2 suits of heavy underwear, and so on—weighed about a ton, transported by 50- to 80-pound packs and left at a cache while the prospective miner went back down to make the ascent anew with more gear.

Most of the stampeders were unprepared for the harsh environment of the Yukon and had little knowledge of prospecting. They died of disease, violence, avalanche, exposure, scurvy, and malnutrition. Men—and a few women—made the trip to the unforgiving Yukon because it seemed their best bet in a nation crushed by a depression and torn between the haves and the have-nots.

In 1892, just five years before the stampeders struck out for the gold fields, voters had put Democrat Grover Cleveland in the White House and Democrats in charge of Congress, giving the Democrats full control of the government for the first time since before the Civil War. Their vote was a rejection of Republican president Benjamin Harrison and his pro-business administration that had added six new states to the Union to make sure they could control the Senate, had raised tariff rates, and was responsible for the 1890 Wounded Knee Massacre.

As soon as it was clear voters had put Democrats in charge, Republican industrialists panicked. Their industries were protected by a high tariff that had enabled them to dominate the domestic market and raise prices, while a lack of labor laws and protections for farmers drove down workers’ wages and agricultural profits. The tariffs had made industrialists very rich indeed, and they insisted that Democrats’ promises to lower tariff rates to help the workers and consumers who paid the tariffs would collapse the economy.

Harrison’s administration had been “beyond question the best business administration the country has ever seen,” one businessmen’s club declared, and losing that administration would be a calamity, especially since, according to Republicans, Democrats were socialists and anarchists who wanted to destroy America. The Chicago Tribune told readers that a lower tariff would destroy industries and throw people out of work, but it seemed fine with the prospect: “The working classes of the country need such a lesson.”

Republican newspapers warned of an impending collapse, and fearful investors pulled their money out of the market and out of U.S. bonds. Gold began to flow out of the country as Europeans brought their money home. The outgoing Harrison administration refused to reassure investors, insisting there was no financial problem even after financier J.P. Morgan rushed to Washington to urge Harrison to do something. Treasury Secretary Charles Foster commented publicly that the Republicans were responsible for the economy only until March 4, the day Cleveland would take office. His job was only “to avert a catastrophe up to that date.”

He didn’t quite make it. On February 17, the Reading Railroad Company collapsed, and then, one reporter wrote, “the bottom seemed to be falling out of everything.” Harrison’s men remained unmoved. Foster spent his last few days in office sitting for his portrait. Then, when he handed the Treasury Department over to his successor, he told the newspapers that “the Treasury was down to bedrock.”

Cleveland took office with a financial panic in full swing and a depression right behind it. By 1894, desperate workers were demanding government relief programs, adding fuel to Republicans’ charges that workers were dangerous. When officials at George Pullman’s Palace Car Company outside of Chicago cut wages five times without lowering rents in company housing and then fired members of an arbitration committee, workers went on strike. By July 1894 the nation’s transportation system had ground to a halt, and the federal government sent troops to Chicago, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, California, Utah Territory, and New Mexico Territory. Clashes destroyed $250,000 in property.

As Democrats tried to revise the tariff and replace missing revenue with an income tax, Republicans insisted they were socialists. In the 1894 midterms, Republicans blamed Democrats for the economic crisis, strikes, and desperation. They associated the Democrats with economic disaster and anarchy and promised a Republican victory would dramatically improve the economy. In the midterms, voters turned Congress back over to Republicans.

But the fight was not yet over. In 1896, a handsome young Nebraska Democrat speaking at the Democratic National Convention stood firmly for the people. “There are two ideas of government,” William Jennings Bryan said. “There are those who believe that, if you will only legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, that their prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea, however, has been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, their prosperity will find its way up and through every class which rests upon them.”

Democrats nominated Bryan for the presidency, while Republicans stood behind former Ohio representative William McKinley, a staunchly pro-business lawmaker who was chiefly responsible for the high tariffs of Harrison’s term. While McKinley stayed home and kept his mouth shut, Republicans flooded the country with speakers and pamphlets charging Democrats with trying to instigate “class warfare” and saying Bryan was a “demagogue” who hoped to create a “red welter of lawlessness as fantastic and as vicious as the dream of a European communist.”

He was planning to change the government of the people, for the people, and by the people into “a government of a mob, by the demagogue, for the shiftless and the disorderly and the criminal and the semi-criminal.”

In the 1896 election, the issue that most clearly divided the Democrats and the Republicans was that of money. Democrats noted that Republicans had stopped the coinage of silver in 1873 in a routine reworking of the nation’s currency laws, just as silver strikes in Nevada would have poured silver into the market. Workers, farmers, and entrepreneurs wanted the government to coin silver as well as gold to expand the currency, making it easier for them to borrow to develop new businesses to rebuild prosperity.

But more money might also create inflation, enabling them to pay back loans in cheaper dollars, and Republican financiers, creditors, and established businessmen insisted that the security of the nation depended on a gold standard. Looser money would decrease the value of their holdings and unsettle businessmen, making them unwilling to invest in the economy to help fuel a recovery.

In the election of 1896, Republican “Gold Bugs” backed big-business representative William McKinley, while Democratic “Silverites” backed Nebraskan William Jennings Bryan. The election was one of history’s most vicious. When Bryan complained about Republicans’ rhetoric, Republicans retorted: “This is a fight for the country and the flag.”

McKinley won in 1896, and the Republicans immediately hiked tariff rates even higher. Poorer Americans could see little hope for their future, and news of a gold strike on Bonanza Creek in Yukon Territory seemed providential.

In the end, few of the stampeders made fortunes and many more lost their lives. The biggest winners in the Klondike Fever were those from the newly booming city of Seattle who supplied the miners, and the writers who saw romance in the frigid dream: Jack London, whose most famous novel, The Call of the Wild, showed how love and loyalty trumped gold; and Robert Service, whose poems explored the cruelty of life in the Yukon but also the humor, sentimentality, and above all the loyalty and friendship of those who realized they must help each other or die.

Enough gold poured into the United States from the Yukon to give Gold Bugs a gold standard and Silverites an expanded currency. The economy, which had already begun to recover anyway, got a boost as the Yukon Gold Rush pulled the fangs of the currency issue, giving Americans one fewer division to overcome before they could reform the country during the Progressive Era.

“The Arctic trails have their secret tales that would make your blood run cold….”

Notes:

https://www.nps.gov/klgo/learn/historyculture/gold-discoverers.htm

https://www.nps.gov/klgo/learn/goldrush.htm

https://www.nps.gov/klgo/learn/historyculture/tonofgoods.htm

https://www.nps.gov/klgo/learn/historyculture/historic-chilkoot-trail.htm

https://www.nps.gov/articles/klgo-death.htm

https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/williamjenningsbryan1896dnc.htm

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What I’ve been reading

1. Gerald Martin, Mario Vargas Llosa: A Life.  A good book if you wish to read about his strange sex life, starting early in his years.  But if you are more interested in the history of ideas, Peruvian politics, or the development of the Latin American novel it is far less compelling.  So for me a disappointment.

2. Sean Mathews, The New Byzantines: The Rise of Greece and Return of the Near East.  A consistently interesting look at Greece, the Ottoman roots in the area, the radical changes brought by the early 20th century, and Greece’s relations with Israel, among other topics.  The book has the virtue of “trying to explain how things actually are,” sadly not the case for all works.

3. Simon Morrison, The Love & Wars of Lina Prokofiev.  More suspense and interest for me than any biography of Prokofiev I have read.  I had not known that she grew up in Brooklyn.  I am happy to recommend Morrison’s books more generally.

4. Emily Wilson, Crossing the Wine-Dark Sea: Journeys through Ancient Literature.  Wilson has become a controversial figure for a variety of not-so-merited reasons, but the simpler truth is this.  She is a superior intellectual presence and mind, so you should be reading what she writes, no matter what your stances.  My two favorite essays in this volume were the one on Logue’s War Music, and the closing piece on translations of The Odyssey.

5. Munir Hachemi, The Mulai.  A somewhat loopy but intriguing science fiction story, broadly in the direction of Ursula LeGuin.  I am not sure what to think, but definitely will keep on reading.

The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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A giant made of many

At first glance, one antenna seems to tower over the rest. In reality, perspective makes the nearest dish dominate this Picture of the Week, while a line of antennas appears to shrink into the distance beneath the clear blue sky. They belong to the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), an international observatory in northern Chile in which ESO is a partner.

ALMA consists of 66 antennas that work together rather than as separate telescopes. They combine the signals they receive using a technique called interferometry, creating a virtual telescope as large as the distance between the outermost antennas. The antennas can be repositioned across the site: placed close together, they are well suited to map broad cosmic structures, while spreading them across larger distances – of up to 16 kilometers – allows astronomers to distinguish much finer details.

Instead of visible light, ALMA detects millimetre and submillimetre radiation, which lies between infrared and radio waves. This light comes from some of the coldest material in the Universe, including clouds of gas and dust where stars are born and discs where planets take shape. Seen in this image, the antennas show that ALMA’s strength lies not in the single dishes, but in the way all 66 of them, work together as one.

Chasing Fire Clouds in Utah

Natural Color
Brightness Temperature
Textured gray wildfire smoke streams east from a fire burning near Fishlake National Forest. A dark shadow is visible to the east of a tall plume near the fire front.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A data visualization shows the cloud-top brightness temperature of the same scene. Tall, cold smoky clouds appear white, and warmer plumes at lower heights appear purple.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
Textured gray wildfire smoke streams east from a fire burning near Fishlake National Forest. A dark shadow is visible to the east of a tall plume near the fire front.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A data visualization shows the cloud-top brightness temperature of the same scene. Tall, cold smoky clouds appear white, and warmer plumes at lower heights appear purple.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
Natural Color
Brightness Temperature
A smoke-infused pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) rises from the Widemouth 2 fire in Utah in these images captured by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Aqua satellite. The left image is natural color; the right image is false color, revealing cloud-top brightness temperatures below -40°C, a commonly used threshold for identifying pyroCbs. NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison.

Scientists have long known that volcanoes can launch large quantities of particles into the stratosphere. In the past few decades, it has become clear that wildfires do this, too, by generating towering, smoke-infused pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds.

The largest pyroCbs are stunning weather-making features that generate massive thunderheads capable of unleashing lightning, hail, and heavy rain. A growing body of research shows that pyroCbs can also leave an outsized imprint on the upper atmosphere by channeling pulses of particles and gases into the stratosphere’s mostly dry, cloudless confines. Once there, smoke can spread widely and linger for months or years, sometimes circling the globe and likely influencing the ozone layer and Earth’s energy budget.

Understanding these enigmatic and dangerous clouds is why a team of atmospheric scientists—part of a NASA mission called INSPYRE (INjected Smoke and PYRocumulonimbus Experiment)—is spending the summer chasing them with NASA’s ER-2 aircraft, NSF/NCAR’s GV, and a suite of truck-based sensors. The team completed one of its first sampling runs of the summer on August 3, 2026, when the GV flew through a high-altitude pulse of smoke from the Widemouth 2 fire, one of Utah’s largest so far this year.

Lightning ignited the fire on July 27, 2026, but it remained relatively small until August 2, when it more than doubled in size amid intense winds and hot, dry conditions. That afternoon, soon after it had produced two pyroCb bursts, the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image (above), showing a chimney of high-altitude cloud and smoke casting a shadow on low-altitude smoke below.

These bursts propelled clouds high enough that Aqua measured cloud-top brightness temperatures well below −40°C, a common threshold for identifying pyroCbs and a sign that the cloud tops were bubbling to the top of the troposphere and sometimes into the stratosphere. The brightness temperature measurements “reveal two discrete pulses of pyroCb action,” said Michael Fromm, a scientist at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. “The westernmost is the youngest pulse and stands out in the visible imagery by virtue of its shadow.”

Though relatively routine and minor, this pyroCb event followed a pre-dawn pyroCb from the same fire, imaged by the NOAA weather satellite GOES-West. “Morning pyroCbs are much more unusual,” Fromm said, because they don’t benefit from daytime heating that helps fuel convection. In this case, however, there appeared to be enough atmospheric instability and water vapor in the air to allow for pyroCb development. 

Multiple pyroCbs in a single day could have added unwanted complexity for forecasters and fire officials battling the blaze and organizing evacuations, said David Peterson, INSPYRE’s principal investigator. “Minimizing that sort of uncertainty for fire forecasters is a big part of the reason we’re out here studying this,” he added.

Remote sensing experts like Peterson and Fromm routinely study pyroCbs from afar with satellites, but it’s less common for pilots to chase and sample smoke plumes just hours after they form. In this case, the GV aircraft, on the ground in Colorado when the Widemouth 2 fire blew up, made a beeline for a high-altitude smoke plume as it drifted over New Mexico on August 3. The instruments on the plane sampled smoke at roughly 12 kilometers (8 miles) above the surface, collecting data at a height that isn’t typically incorporated into forecast models.

An aerial image shows a thick, puffy white cloud rising high above a patch of darker smoke visible near a surface of variable mountainous terrain.
A photo of the Widemouth 2 fire taken from an INSPYRE aircraft during a sampling flight on August 3, 2026, shows a smoke-infused cloud rising high above the fire.
Bernadett Weinzierl/University of Vienna

During that mission, a scientist on board captured this image (above) of a pyrocumulus (pyroCu) billowing up over the Widemouth 2 fire. While not as tall or energetic as pyroCbs, pyroCus are precursor clouds that share many of the same characteristics. Here, heat from the fire is fueling strong convective updrafts, forming a towering cloud with puffy overshooting tops that poke into the upper troposphere as lower-altitude smoke drifts below.

Satellites excel at identifying pyroCbs by measuring the temperature of the cloud tops that form above smoke plumes. Using this technique, researchers have established that wildfires produce about 70 pyroCbs per year, many in dense forests of Canada and Russia, though plenty also occur in grasslands and savannas in the United States and Australia. So far in 2026, Fromm and colleagues have identified at least 13 in the continental United States.

Since one of the first pyroCbs appeared in the scientific literature in the early 2000s, scientists have cataloged well over 700 events, and they now believe that wildfires may contribute up to 25 percent of the black carbon and organic aerosols in the lower stratosphere. The sheer frequency of pyroCbs means that the total mass of particles they inject over the course of a wildfire season may rival that of large volcanic eruptions.

Still, many questions about the enigmatic clouds remain unanswered. It isn’t clear what vegetation is most likely to fuel pyroCbs, why some form more lightning than others, why they form in only a small fraction of fires, and how to accurately forecast them.

“Whether it be their dangerous manifestations on the ground or their long-lasting imprint on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere,” Fromm said, “pyroCbs continue to surprise us.”

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/WorldviewPhoto by Bernadett Weinzierl/University of Vienna. Story by Adam Voiland.

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Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain in the Mid-South; Heat Continues in the Southeast and Southwest