Thursday 27 August 1663

Up, after much pleasant talke with my wife and a little that vexes me, for I see that she is confirmed in it that all that I do is by design, and that my very keeping of the house in dirt, and the doing of this and any thing else in the house, is but to find her employment to keep her within and from minding of her pleasure, in which, though I am sorry to see she minds it, is true enough in a great degree.

To my office, and there we sat and despatched much business. Home and dined with my wife well, and then up and made clean my closet of books, and had my chamber a third time made very clean, so that it is now in a very fine condition.

Thence down to see some good plank in the river with Sir W. Batten and back again, it being a very cold day and a cold wind. Home again, and after seeing Sir W. Pen, to my office, and there till late doing of business, being mightily encouraged by every body that I meet withal upon the ’Change and every where else, that I am taken notice of for a man that do the King’s business wholly and well. For which the Lord be praised, for I know no honour I desire more.

Home to supper, where I find my house very clean from top to bottom again to my great content. I found a feacho (as he calls it) of fine sugar and a case of orange-flower water come from Mr. Cocke, of Lisbon, the fruits of my last year’s service to him, which I did in great justice to the man, a perfect stranger. He sends it me desiring that I would not let Sir J. Minnes know it, from whom he expected to have found the service done that he had from me, from whom he could expect nothing, and the other failed him, and would have done I am sure to this day had not I brought it to some end.

After supper to bed.

Read the annotations

Links 8/27/26

Links for you. Science:

In a 2023 interview, Trump’s new FDA pick laid out a vision for ‘conservative-based’ science
Scientists left this farm field alone. Thousands of orchids appeared
FDA approves first Alzheimer’s blood test for Americans as young as 40
NIH Reportedly Flagging, Freezing Policy-Focused Grant Applications
Florida continues push to repeal four required vaccines for public, private schools: “Your body is a gift from God”
2 people die from measles in Pennsylvania, marking state’s first deaths in 35 years
Mutations in filamentous bacteriophages spark eco-evolutionary feedbacks in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Other:

Why Getting High Has Only Gotten Cheaper
Smaugs
To lower energy costs for DC renters and homeowners, pass the GRID Act
Dolly Parton, Queen of Country Music, Dies at 80
Actually Smart
Donald Trump’s Summer of Screwing Our Allies
ONE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS
States Are Quietly War-Gaming Trump Interference in the Midterm Elections
Democrats don’t agree on how to talk about trans athletes. Just look at Ohio.
The Supreme Court Is Helping Trump Rig the Midterms
Castles Made of Sand. Why I Did Not Return to the Government Job I Loved
Comments on OMB research rule mysteriously removed from federal website
It’s time for some game theory
Dolly Parton, Superstar Whose Songs Spoke to Millions, Dies at 80
Stop Talking To Me, Google Search
Vivek Ramaswamy Tells Voter He Supports Max Miller To Preserve GOP Power
Is This Social Media’s Big Tobacco Moment?
D.C. Groups Hit the Road to Flip Congress — And Gain Statehood
Leading Sephardic & Mizrahi Organizations Challenge New York Magazine’s “Habibi City” Over Erasure of Middle Eastern Jews
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Faces Resignation Calls as Measles Outbreak Worsens
The AI Slop Backlash Is Actually Having an Impact
Judge strikes down Texas ban on drag shows, tells people offended by them ‘just don’t go’
Karen Attiah Is Ready to Go Back to the Washington Post
‘132F’: meet the man calling out NYC’s infernally hot subway stations
The Rich Own the Media They Want to Take Your Social Security
Dolly Parton seemed like she’d live forever, but she poignantly reminded us that nothing lasts
Trump-Aligned Board Threatens to Demolish the Kennedy Center
A Republic of Excuses
America is lawless. Are Dems ready to get tough on crime?
I Was a Child Actor. No One Deserves That Fate.

A Day at the Renwick Gallery

Hadn’t been there in a while. Enjoy.

Untitled
Entrance to the art of state fairs exhibit

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Butter Carton Dress Worn by Princess Kay of the Milky Way–Mary Ann Titrud

Untitled

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Horseshoes from County Fairs

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And this is a bench:

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The Load-Bearing Vocabulary of Claude

Fun (but depressing?) data analysis project from Louis Abraham, showing how repetitive Claude is in the words it chooses when submitting GitHub pull requests. Abraham, in the project’s readme:

GitHub pull request descriptions, grouped by the words they are written with rather than by anything they were told to look for: eight ways of writing, and every description belongs to one of them. One of the eight was 1.0% of the corpus at the start of 2025 and is 45% of it by the middle of 2026.

If you want to get a little more depressed, I’ve been doing deeper reading into AI watermarking research, and one of the admissions in Google’s white paper on SynthID-Text — the watermarking scheme Anthropic says Claude is going to start using — is that the technique incurs “some reduction to inter-response diversity”. That means different answers to the same prompt become more similar to each other — there’s less variety to watermarked text responses. That’s a load-bearing problem given that Claude clearly already struggles in this regard before watermarking its output.

 ★ 

Elizabeth Warren’s Incoherent Outrage Regarding Apple’s Tariff Refund

Speaking of tariff refunds, here’s an official statement from Senator Elizabeth Warren from a few weeks ago:

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) wrote to Target, Apple, Amazon, Nike, Motorola, Walmart, and Energizer pushing these companies — each of which have or are expected to receive massive rebates from the Trump Administration for tariffs paid last year — to provide refunds to customers.

“I urge you to pass along any refund you may receive to the consumers who paid higher prices for your products while the tariffs were in place,” wrote Senator Warren.

On Twitter/X, she posted:

NEW: Apple reportedly got $2.2 BILLION back in tariff refunds. Amazon got $600 MILLION.

What’s their plan to give YOU your money back?

Warren published the letters she sent to the CEOs, including Tim Cook:

Reports indicate that Apple has applied for a refund of the roughly $3.3 billion in tariffs you paid in 2025, and as of July 30th, that you have received nearly $2.2 billion in refunds. This amounts to a multi-billion dollar windfall, which could still grow if more of your refund petitions are granted. You have claimed that you “plan to reinvest any amount we receive back into U.S. innovation and advanced manufacturing,” but this vague statement offers no clarity as to where this money will go: indeed, it implies that you will not be returning it to the millions of consumers who purchased Apple products last year and paid higher prices. [...]

You have received an astronomical cash infusion in the form of a tariff refund, and Apple customers who paid increased prices for your products, ostensibly due to tariffs, deserve to know how that money will be spent. Your vague statements about “reinvesting” the refund leave hardworking Americans who paid hundreds of dollars more to buy Apple products in the dark about why they paid those increased prices and where their money will go. To better understand the disposition of any tariff refund you might receive, I request that you respond to the following questions by August 21, 2026.

Amongst the 11 questions she asks, the only one that seems pertinent is #5:

(5) How much did Apple increase prices on products in 2025?
(a) For what products did Apple increase prices, and how many of these products were directly impacted by tariffs?

Unless I’m missing something, the answers are “$0” and “none”. Apple increased none of its prices on any of its products in response to tariffs in 2025. The iPhone 17 lineup, in fact, surprised many observers and made news by holding prices steady.

In May 2025, Warren co-signed a letter to the FTC encouraging them to discourage large profitable companies from raising prices due to tariffs. Apple — a large profitable company — didn’t raise prices at all, which seemingly was what Warren thought they should do. But now she’s expressing outrage that Apple got a refund for the tariffs whose costs the company covered, and her followers are left to believe that Apple did raise prices and is keeping the money.

 ★ 

Panic Is Refunding Tariff Fees to Playdate Buyers

Nicole Carpenter and Diego Argüello, reporting for Game Developer:

“There was a specific window of time this year where we charged tariffs to customers,” Panic co-founder Cabel Sasser explained in an e-mail to Game Developer confirming the news. “We tried absorbing the cost for a while, but that was financially difficult for a small company like ours. We made the tariff a very obvious and clearly labeled line item on checkout for any customer affected.”

Panic also set up a website to explain the 19% tariff surcharge. [...] The refund amount a customer will get back depends on how much they purchased.

“It’s just not our money to keep, and it felt really good to give it back,” Sasser said. “That’s an easy way to know you made the right decision.”

He continued: “Still, it took a lot of work for us to file all the paperwork to get the refund from the government, and it took work to build a little system to process the refund, and sometimes it felt like, wait, why are we seemingly doing more work than even gigantic companies are on this issue? That felt weird. But I guess it makes sense in a way, because our small size means we’re far more directly affected by something like a tariff.”

Sasser said he hopes Panic never has to talk about tariffs again.

Cool story from a cool company, and amen to the day we never hear about tariffs again.

 ★ 

Ads in Apple Maps Have Now Launched

Ryan Christoffel, 9to5Mac:

Apple confirmed to 9to5Mac that the ads rollout in Maps began in the last few days. And it will continue ramping in the weeks ahead to all users.

There are two places you’ll find ads in the Maps app:

  1. Before searching: Suggested Places in the search screen will feature an ad.
  2. After searching: Ads will appear in search results when relevant.

Before searching, I saw an ad for an HVAC contractor 12 miles away in “Suggested Places”. Knock on wood but I currently have no HVAC problems, and even if I did, I’d just call someone and have them come here. Then I waited a few minutes and looked again. This time I saw an ad for Tommy’s Express Car Wash (“Get your first month free”), 23 miles away in the middle of a suburban shopping mall. Apple Maps estimates it would take me 1 hour 8 minutes to drive there right now. I’ll get right on that.

The first organic (non-ad) suggested place is a coffee shop 300 feet away.

 ★ 

Donald Trump Wants to Get to the Bottom of Who Screwed Up the Midterms

This is a touch meta. But indulge me because I think it could have real world effects. When real world players start acting on new perceptions, beliefs, prognostications, those beliefs become meaningful and consequential even if they’re absurd or unsupported in themselves. Because they are driving actions.

What’s going on? In short, over the last couple of weeks Republicans and Donald Trump have decided they’re losing this election. It’s not clear to me that anything has actually changed — except to the extent that for the party on the ropes “nothing changing” becomes a bigger problem the closer you get to Election Day. What’s focused people’s attention is Donald Trump yesterday reposting a fan’s tweet (on Truth Social) basically arguing that Republicans are heading toward an electoral tsunami and don’t seem to realize it. He’s also reportedly gearing up to have all the GOP’s election ads focus on him — which has Democrats basically ecstatic.

You’ll notice the key detail that tells us where we’re going: Republicans. Donald Trump has decided they’re losing the election and he knows whose fault it is: Republicans. There are many layers of comedy and poetic justice at work here. Trump appears to be rewinding about ten years, certainly way before 2021, to a point where there was a Republican Party as anything other than a manifestation of the will of Donald Trump. There’s no need to even argue this point. The Republican Party is Donald Trump now. Everything it does is what he demanded and ordered. The identity between the two things is total. He calls the shots.

The GOP joins that long list of people and things, most recently Benjamin Netanyahu, who thought that unlike all the others, they were the ones Trump really loved deep down in his heart.

In any case, this clicked with another thing I’ve been wondering about. A few days ago TPM Reader PT wrote me an email the upshot of which was this: ‘You and everyone else keeps saying that Trump is worried about the midterms and the prospect of hearings and all the rest — but is he? Are you sure? Because he’s not really acting like that at all.’

This was, as I told PT, a really good question and one I’ve actually been struggling to get my head around for a while. I actually think it’s eating him up. He seems to be worrying about it a lot — though you can certainly argue that he’ll just stonewall Capitol Hill for two years, so who cares? But he’s not acting like it at all. His election subversion plans have been going nowhere and that mostly still applies even after his incremental win on his mail in ballot executive order earlier this week. And on the conventional politics front, he’s not doing any of the things you’d expect a president in his position to do. He really has no good options on Iran. But he’s not ramping back any of the unpopular policies where he has room to maneuver. He’s very conspicuously broadcasting the message that his real focus is things like his ballroom, the reflecting pool and a bunch other vanity projects and grievances. Those are things many people may not care that much about in themselves but they send a clear message that the things people actually care about are nowhere on his list of concerns. The Canada trade war pulls the whole litany together and tops it with a bow. It would have been the easiest thing in the world to just punt this to the winter or the spring. And yet he didn’t.

So does he actually care? My best stab at this, and what I told PT, is that I think it’s both. And we’re thinking about it too linearly. Yes, he’s really worried, upset, mad. But at the second term’s mix of intense cocooning, several additional years of age and the absence of anyone around him but the most abject yes-men has simply made it impossible for him to do anything but stay in the mode of self-assertion, grandiosity and impulse — some mix of the Mad King and “Anthony” the little boy in the classic Twilight Zone episode who mind-zaps people to the cornfield. As much as you may hate Trump, the 2016 version of him was cannier. He was more dextrous. He can pivot in unpredictable and often advantageous ways. Even the 2024 Trump was meaningfully different from this one. Maybe that’s because he was, in meaningful ways, fighting for his life, or at least his freedom. He was also fighting for the ability to wreak vengeance on his foes.

Whatever it is, I don’t think he’s capable anymore of getting out of the mode he’s been in since January 2025. So yes, he really is worried about the midterms. But he’s unable to do the things that could at least lessen the velocity of impact. Sure, maybe he’ll lose terribly but the fix is in and they’ll say all the Republicans won, or refuse to seat the Democrats. But I doubt it. If anything Trump’s sudden rediscovery of a separate entity called the Republican Party is him telling us he doubts it, too. I don’t take anything for granted. And Democrats need to remain vigilant. But deciding that it’s Republicans who screwed up makes perfect sense. It heals all the ego wounds he may feel he is about to suffer.

Afterglow — Classic After Dark Screen Savers on Today’s MacOS

Jeff Halter has done it again: after bringing back the single greatest After Dark module (Ben Haller’s Lunatic Fringe game, via a modern runtime named Lunacy), he’s now released Afterglow:

Running After Dark modules in the present day has involved fussy configuration of Mac OS emulators or vintage hardware. Even then, no single emulator or vintage computer can faithfully run every module: some animate too fast, some too slow.

Afterglow is an emulator built specifically for running After Dark modules — the original 68k module code, not a remake or port — with no dependencies on ROMs or classic Mac OS. Created in the spirit of software preservation, it makes After Dark easy to enjoy today and for years to come.

All this in the same summer during which Halter released Stacks, his beautiful native modern HyperCard player.

 ★ 

What should I ask Yiyang Zhuge (诸葛一杨), also known as Zhong Shu (仲树)?

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her.  She is best known to Western audiences for her interview with Christopher Nolan, but she has numerous other achievements:

Yiyang Zhuge is a political theorist, political columnist, and a translator of German and Greek philosophical texts. She is an instructor at Brandeis University, and a PhD Candidate at Boston College

Yiyang is a major translator of Hannah Arendt into Chinese. She has translated The Human Condition, Life of the Mind, Men in Dark Times, collected poetry, Die verborgene Tradition, and Rahel Varnhagen: The Life of a JewessShe has given numerous lectures and published numerous public-facing articles on Arendt. 

Yiyang published the first Greek-to-Chinese translation of Plutarch’s Moralia, a best-selling philosophy book in 2025. 

She runs Princeton University Press’s Political Philosophy Book Club, where she interviews important Western academics for the Chinese audience. 

Yiyang is a public intellectual in China. She reports on American higher ed monthly at print magazine Caixin Weekly. She is a political commenter on Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV (here and here). She hosts great books programs on vistopia and has contributed essays on MachiavelliRousseauTocquevilleArendt at vistopia. She hosts the most popular Mandarin political philosophy podcast “Monologues of a Committed Observer” with 1m+ subscribers.

So what should I ask her?

The post What should I ask Yiyang Zhuge (诸葛一杨), also known as Zhong Shu (仲树)? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Related Stories

 

Thursday assorted links

1. Data centers in space? Good Anton Leicht essay on the different considerations in the political economy.

2. More whales and Dr. Doolittle stuff.

3. Rohit on the AI hacks.  And Peter Wilderford.

4. Is Australia the most resilient country to global catastrophic risk?

5. Dolly Parton’s philanthropy (NYT).

6. Why has New Zealand education so declined? (and other questions about the country)

7. Yayoi Kusama, RIP.

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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China should be loosening budgetary policy. It’s doing the opposite

Its belt-tightening is good micro, but bad macro

How India’s central bank subsidised the diaspora

The scheme has helped to stabilise the rupee

Tax breaks for charity donations are a poor way to do good

They should be scrapped

Why is Russia deliberately weakening its currency?

A strong rouble was hurting the budget

The economic costs of Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown

A smaller workforce and slower growth

Scott Bessent takes on the bond market

And makes trouble for the Fed

Performative Nonsense

How the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Works

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the largest crude oil storage facility in the world. It’s capable of storing 714 million barrels of oil, slightly less than 10% of the US’s annual oil consumption. Built in response to OAPEC’s 1973 oil embargo, the SPR was created to insulate the US from oil supply shocks: to make up for shortfalls and prevent steep price increases should oil imports be interrupted. In the years since its creation, it has become one of the most frequently used energy policy tools in the US’s arsenal.

The SPR has gotten a great deal of attention lately, as the Trump administration has steadily delivered oil (around 120 million barrels as of this writing) from the reserve in response to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Much of this attention has centered on technical factors related to how much oil can safely be released from the reserve: various folks have claimed, for instance, that the minimum safe operating level of the SPR is 300 million barrels of oil (a level that it went below the week of August 7), and below that damage to the storage facility can occur.

It’s not clear if the specific claim about the 300 million barrel level is true, but due to the way the SPR was constructed, it does indeed have limits on how much oil can be removed from it and how many times it can be emptied. Given the ongoing importance of the SPR, it’s worth understanding how it was built and how it works now.

Origins of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Almost as soon as oil became strategically important to the US, people began floating the idea of stockpiling it for emergencies. The first strategic stockpiles of petroleum in the US were created for the military: a Naval Petroleum Reserve (NPR) was created in 1912 by setting aside land containing oil deposits in California, and by the 1920s there were four NPR sites across the country.1 During WWII, Secretary of the Interior Harold Ickes advocated stockpiling petroleum “for military and civilian needs,” and was appointed president of the Petroleum Reserves Corporation, a government corporation that tried (but failed) to gain control over Middle East oil fields for emergency reserve purposes. In 1952, President Truman’s Materials Policy Commission proposed maintaining an emergency oil reserve, and President Eisenhower suggested creating one following the disruption of oil imports during the Suez Crisis.

But it wasn’t until the 1973 OAPEC oil embargo that the idea for a petroleum reserve for both civilian and government use stuck. By the early 1970s, the US’s demand for petroleum was increasingly outpacing domestic production, making the country more and more dependent upon imports; between 1963 and 1970 the US’s surplus oil capacity (how much domestic production could be boosted in the event of a crisis) had fallen by 75%, and between 1967 and 1973 US oil imports more than doubled. When OAPEC declared an oil embargo in October 1973, the impact on the US was immediate; gas prices jumped by over 40%, and widespread gasoline shortages occurred.

Even before the embargo, in response to tightening oil supplies and frequent threats from Middle Eastern countries to withhold oil, the Nixon administration commissioned a study on the impact of a major oil supply disruption from the National Petroleum Council. The council’s report, released a few months before the embargo, suggested that a large petroleum reserve could act as a buffer for import shortfalls. It considered several possibilities for storing the oil, including simply leaving known reserves in the ground and aboveground steel tanks, but concluded that the most cost-effective method would be underground storage in caverns hollowed out from large salt deposits known as “salt domes.” A subsequent report by the newly created Federal Energy Administration, formed following the oil embargo (and which later became the Department of Energy), likewise suggested that underground salt dome storage was the most economical way of storing large quantities of petroleum.

This suggestion became a reality in 1975, when Gerald Ford signed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. Among the bill’s provisions was a mandate to establish a petroleum reserve of up to 1 billion barrels to “diminish the vulnerability of the United States to the effects of a severe energy supply interruption.” Construction on the SPR began in 1977.

Constructing the SPR

When planning the SPR, several options for storing the petroleum were considered, including using large numbers of idle oil tankers. But ultimately it was decided that the best option was what the National Petroleum Council and the Federal Energy Administration had both recommended: storing the oil in large, underground salt caverns.

Salt domes are enormous underground salt structures, potentially miles deep and miles across, formed when geologic forces push underground deposits of rock salt up through the rock above. They were first discovered in the mid-19th century, and began to be surveyed extensively in the early 20th century after oil was discovered near a salt dome at Spindletop in Texas: as the salt pushes up into the rock above, it can create pockets around the dome where oil and gas can accumulate. Because rock salt is largely impermeable to oil or gas, hollowed-out caverns within salt domes were a potentially attractive place to store large amounts of crude oil.

These caverns can be created by a process known as “solution mining”: drilling a well down into the salt dome and pumping water into it. The water dissolves the salt, and the resulting salty brine gets pumped back out, leaving behind a void where the salt had been. Mining rock salt by using water to dissolve it had been practiced in Europe for hundreds of years, but modern solution mining — drilling a well into an underground salt deposit and pumping water into it — first began around the 1860s–1870s in New York.2 By the 1970s, solution mining had become a widely used method for mining salt. Companies like Morton Salt used solution mining to obtain salt for food products, and Dow Chemical used solution mining as a source of chemical feedstocks.

Initially, the underground caverns created by solution mining were simply abandoned. But by the mid-20th century, they had begun to be used for underground storage. In the 1940s Canada first considered solution-mined caverns for underground storage, and beginning in the 1950s it had become a popular method of storing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in North America and Europe. By 1976, private firms in the US had created over 900 solution-mined caverns, with a total storage capacity of 300 million barrels. For storing unprecedented amounts of petroleum, solution-mined salt caverns were the obvious choice, and that’s what was chosen to create the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast was chosen as the location for the reserve: not only did the area have numerous salt domes that could be utilized for storage, but it was close to existing oil and gas infrastructure, making it easier to fill the reserve and draw it down when required.

Construction would be split into three phases. In Phase I, several existing salt caverns would be converted into crude oil storage at five sites along the Gulf Coast:

  • Four caverns at Bryan Mound, in Texas.

  • Five caverns at West Hackberry, in Louisiana.

  • Six caverns at Bayou Choctaw, in Louisiana.

  • Three caverns at Sulphur Mines, in Louisiana.

In addition to these solution-mined caverns, the SPR would also use a conventionally mined salt mine at Weeks Island in Louisiana. Collectively, the Phase I sites would give the SPR 248 million barrels of capacity. And because the caverns already existed, they could begin to be filled with oil quickly.

In Phase II, 29 new solution-mined caverns would be created at these sites, adding another 290 million barrels of storage capacity. In Phase III, a new site would be added at Big Hill in Texas, which would bring the total storage capacity to 750 million barrels.

Due to political pressure to get oil stored as soon as possible, the construction schedule was compressed, and the first oil entered the SPR in 1977. But the project was soon mired in setbacks. The Federal Energy Administration employees tasked with overseeing the project had little experience in managing large construction projects, and cost control proved difficult. Material and equipment specifications were created before plans were fully complete, creating problems when the selections later proved to be unsuitable. Equipment such as pumps was often chosen because of availability, not because it was best suited for the job, resulting in breakdowns and costly workarounds. Contractors taking advantage of management inexperience engaged in “extensive fraud”; used valves were sold as new, and drill bits were purchased, stolen, and then re-sold back to the government. One contractor was indicted for stealing 18 truckloads of equipment worth $427,000; another was accused of making off with $8 million worth of petroleum bound for Bayou Choctaw and pumping in “hazardous and toxic wastes” instead (though the government denied that this occurred). By the late 1970s, over two dozen SPR fraud cases were being investigated simultaneously.

And while the SPR project was broadly popular, it nevertheless had its share of opponents who tried to slow down the project. The governor of Louisiana, Edwin Edwards, felt the SPR was wasteful government spending and led a “virtual one-man crusade” against the project, using various environmental protection regulations to slow it down until he was sufficiently convinced that it would benefit Louisiana. Among the concessions Edwards was able to extract were slowing down site conversions to minimize the loss of local jobs, and getting the SPR office located in Louisiana instead of the originally planned Houston.

There was also broader environmental opposition. Creating the SPR caverns during Phases II and III would require creating and then disposing of large amounts of brine; while some of this brine could be pumped back underground, the lion’s share of it would be disposed of by pumping it into the Gulf of Mexico. But local fishermen, worried about the potential impact on fish and shrimp populations, objected, ultimately forcing brine disposal pipelines to extend much farther into the Gulf of Mexico than originally planned. Securing the necessary environmental permits required an enormous amount of time and effort in the first few years of the program, and by the end of 1978 the SPR Office had completed 25 NEPA-required environmental impact statements.

There were also numerous technical challenges involved with building the SPR. Phase I of construction involved converting existing solution-mined caverns, but these caverns had not been created for the purposes of petroleum storage: some of them turned out to be unsuitable; others were workable but proved to be incapable of holding as much petroleum as originally projected due to pressure limitations. Collectively, the Phase I caverns ultimately had 87 million barrels less storage capacity than first anticipated.

Technical challenges continued during Phase II, when solution mining of the new caverns began. Historically, most solution-mined caverns had been on the order of 1 million barrels in size; a few had reached the 4 million mark. But most of the Phase II caverns would be 10 million barrels or more, far larger than previous solution-mined caverns. SPR officials learned as much as they could about solution-mining caverns for petroleum storage from studying the West German petroleum reserve, which also used solution-mined caverns and was already in operation, but the much larger scale of the SPR (700 million barrels vs. Germany’s 30 million) meant that they were operating in uncharted territory. When mining began, for instance, it was found that brine could be disposed of underground much less quickly than anticipated, and that leaching took far longer than anticipated, both of which slowed down cavern construction.

Collectively, the technical, political, and managerial challenges encountered when building the SPR drove up costs and pushed back delivery dates. In 1976, the estimated cost of the SPR through Phase II was $766 million; just two years later that had risen to $1.47 billion (~$7.5 billion in 2026 dollars). The original plan called for Phase III to be complete by 1983, with 750 million barrels of crude in the ground. But the actual fill level in 1983 was roughly half that, with many caverns yet to be completed. Between 1980 and 1993, 49 new solution-mined caverns for the SPR were created, bringing its total storage capacity up to 750 million barrels, but the actual fill level would remain at just over 500 million barrels into the 2000s.

Since its completion, the SPR has continued to evolve. The small Sulphur Mines site began decommissioning in 1992, and in 1996 the Weeks Island facility began to be decommissioned when it was realized that groundwater was slowly leaking into it. And over the last 20 years three of the remaining Phase I caverns have been decommissioned, bringing the total number of storage caverns down to 60.

Via the DOE.

Operating the SPR

At a high level, the way the SPR works is relatively simple. Each cavern in the SPR is filled up with oil, which sits on top of a heavier layer of brine beneath it. To remove oil from a cavern, water is pumped down into it, which forces oil out the top. To fill the cavern back up with oil, oil is pumped in as brine is pumped out. The caverns are thus always completely full of liquid; the only thing that changes is where the oil-brine boundary is.

Diagram of the SPR, via the DOE 2016.

But this high-level description belies a lot of complexity. We think of physical infrastructure as something relatively static and unchanging, but in the SPR various forces are constantly reshaping the caverns.

One of these forces is cavern creep. The SPR caverns are thousands of feet below ground, and the weight of the ground constantly squeezes the sides of the caverns, compressing and shrinking them over time. As the caverns are squeezed, the liquid inside the caverns is pressurized, and this pressure, in turn, tends to resist further compression of the caverns. But if that pressure is relieved, which occurs during well repair operations known as “workovers,” cavern creep can accelerate. The SPR loses up to 2.4 million barrels (~0.33%) of storage capacity each year due to the effects of cavern creep, depending in part on the number and length of workovers required.

In the other direction, removing oil from the caverns requires water to be pumped into them. And when fresh water is pumped into the caverns, it dissolves some of the salt from the walls of the caverns. Every 100 barrels of water pumped in dissolves around 15 barrels of salt; removing all the oil from an SPR cavern thus increases its size by about 15%.

Because of this, SPR caverns have a finite lifespan. After enough drawdowns, the walls of the cavern become too thin to use it for storage; they can no longer withstand the stresses and may begin to leak oil into surrounding caverns or outside the salt dome itself.

Various factors affect how the walls of a cavern wear and how many drawdowns it has available. Phase II and III caverns designed specifically to store petroleum are tall and thin, like skyscraper-sized cigars, and are spaced far enough apart to allow for significant cavern growth over time. But many of the Phase I caverns, which were originally mined for other purposes, have irregular shapes or thin cavern walls that make it infeasible to use them for multiple drawdowns. These caverns are thus known as “single-cycle drawdown” caverns. There are currently 11 Phase I caverns in use at the SPR and six caverns that have one drawdown or fewer remaining.

Phase I vs Phase II cavern examples, via the DOE.

Cavern lifespan is also affected by how a cavern is used. When a cavern is fully emptied, wear on the cavern walls is relatively uniform, but if the cavern is subject to multiple partial drawdowns — removing a bit of oil, then filling it back up, then removing a bit more, etc. — this concentrates wear at the bottom of the cavern, resulting in “undesirable shapes” that can more rapidly reduce cavern lifespan. Conversely, it’s also possible to increase cavern lifespan by strategically emptying caverns in such a way as to wear the cavern into a more desirable shape.

Cavern wear is not simply “water dissolving the salt and the walls get thinner”; the geology of the SPR caverns is complex, and they can wear in complex ways. Changing stresses in the walls can cause “salt falls” (when a chunk of salt falls into the cavern) or open up cracks and fissures, causing leaks. Because of this, Sandia National Labs closely monitors SPR cavern conditions using tools like sonar. Each year it puts out a report estimating how many full drawdowns each cavern still has available. Because it can be hard to predict cavern behavior after repeated drawdowns, the maximum number of drawdowns it simulates is five (thus a cavern with five available drawdowns today might actually have several more than that available).

Limits of the SPR

The limited lifespan of SPR caverns, and the complex wearing forces that they’re subjected to, have led to a lot of speculation and assertion about how much oil can be safely removed from the SPR. Folks often claim, for instance, that the SPR can’t go below 300 million barrels of oil without damaging the caverns. I decided to look closely at what these limits actually are.

One limit on the SPR is that a minimum amount of “roof oil” must be kept in the caverns to prevent water at the top of the cavern from dissolving and damaging the cavern ceiling. As of 2016 this was about 12 million barrels, or around 1.7% of total SPR capacity.

Another limit you will often see mentioned is 70 million barrels: for instance, the DOE told CNBC earlier this year that 70 million barrels was the minimum amount needed to safely operate the SPR. It’s not amazingly clear what’s behind this limit, but this may be simply using the DOE’s definition of a “full drawdown,” which is when 90% of the oil in the SPR has been removed: 70 million barrels is about 10% of the SPR’s total capacity. It’s not clear if there’s an actual, physical limit at 70 million — that may be the level at which the oil-brine interface would be above the oil intake well, for instance — or if that’s simply a defined operational limit.

Above these lower limits, you see various claims about operating levels below which damage to the SPR starts to occur. Earlier this year a JPMorgan energy analyst claimed that 150–160 million barrels “must remain in place to preserve cavern stability and maintain operational flexibility.” Rapidan Energy, founded by former George W. Bush energy advisor Bob McNally, claims that this limit is at 170 million. A professor of petroleum engineering at Texas A&M, Siddharth Misra, claims that the operational limit is between 250 and 300 million barrels, below which “the risk of structural damage increases while the system loses its ability to pump oil at high speeds.” Former Biden energy advisor Amos Hochstein claims that he “know[s] plenty of people who think we can’t get near 300 [million] because physically you will damage the caverns where the oil is stored.”

Some of these claims can be verified. For instance, it’s true that draining the SPR beyond a particular point reduces the speed at which oil can be pumped out of it. Oil can only be pumped so quickly out of an SPR site, so as caverns empty the drawdown rate drops.

Additionally, because of the aging SPR infrastructure as well as the downtime needed for repairing that infrastructure, not all the oil in the SPR is available for drawdown at any given point. For instance, a recent GAO report noted that oil at several SPR sites might be unavailable during warmer months due to vapor pressure. Oil stored in the caverns gradually absorbs methane, and gradually warms up, both of which increase the vapor pressure within the oil. To be safely distributed the vapor pressure in the oil must be below a certain level, which can be achieved at a “degasification” plant. But several years ago the SPR’s degasification plant was dismantled and hasn’t yet been replaced, limiting its ability to distribute crude during warmer times of the year. More generally, the SPR has a huge maintenance backlog and has been described as being held together with “band aids.” A planned large-scale SPR renovation and maintenance program, Life Extension Phase 2, began in 2021 but was scaled back due to high costs.

There have also been various reports noting that the SPR may not have the ability to respond to a severe supply disruption below a level of 250 to 500 million barrels, and that outside of true emergencies it would be prudent to keep it above this level.3

However, no official report by the Department of Energy, the GAO, Sandia National Labs, or any other government agency mentions specific fill levels below which damage to the SPR occurs (other than the small amount of roof oil required). While Sandia puts out an annual report on the number of available drawdowns on a cavern-by-cavern basis, it doesn’t note any SPR-wide fill level limit below which damage occurs. I similarly wasn’t able to find any independent analysis or report pointing to some minimum SPR fill level and explaining specifically what drives it. So it’s not particularly clear to me what the source of claims about very high minimum fill levels is: if it’s from people talking to Sandia/DOE folks in some unofficial capacity, or if they’re inferring limits based on cavern stress data that Sandia provides but doesn’t make explicit, or something else. It’s notable to me that claims about minimum fill levels aren’t particularly consistent, and that different analysts/experts give widely different limits. It’s also notable that these claims often conflate different limits. (The Department of Energy, for its part, has denied the 300 million barrel limit.)

Conclusion

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the largest petroleum storage facility in the world and stores vast amounts of crude oil — over 700 million barrels — in underground salt caverns. These caverns behave in complex ways: they grow, shrink, and distort over time due to the various fluid and geologic forces that they’re subjected to, and the caverns have a limited lifespan due to water gradually dissolving the solid salt walls.

Because of these complex forces, and the gradual damage that gradually accumulates across the walls of the caverns, there’s widespread speculation and assertion that the SPR can’t be drained below some particular level without inflicting serious damage on the underground caverns.

It’s hard to know how seriously to take these claims. Many of them are made by experts, such as professors of petroleum engineering and former White House energy advisors. And there are various limits associated with removing oil from the SPR, such as the oil needed to keep water from damaging the roof of the caverns or the drop in withdrawal rates that occurs as the SPR empties. But it’s hard to find any sort of actual published estimate of these limits in a report or official document. This doesn’t mean that these claims are wrong, but it does make me wonder where the claims are coming from.

1

The Naval Petroleum Reserve later became part of a major presidential scandal during the Harding administration when Secretary of the Interior Albert Fall accepted bribes to let companies lease NPR lands at Teapot Dome in Wyoming.

2

Extracting preexisting brine deposits dates even earlier, to China around 250 BC.

3

The SPR also has a statutory storage limit of 252.4 million barrels, but this only applies to a particular type of release, one that as far as I know has never actually been conducted, so in practice this is a meaningless limit.

August 26, 2026

Last night, at exactly 9:25—9 to 5—the top of the Empire State Building in New York City lit up pink. The antennas of Chicago’s Willis Tower—formerly the Sears Tower—lit up pink, too. So did the Ferris wheel at the Santa Monica Pier, which also sported a giant pink heart. The Hoan Bridge in Milwaukee; Reunion Tower and other buildings in the Dallas skyline; and the Longfellow, Burns, Fore River, Braga, and Zakim bridges of Boston; Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans; and, of course, Nashville’s KVB Bridge and historic Metro Courthouse were all lit up in pink last night.

The Arthur Ashe Stadium played “Jolene” during the U.S. Open. Jack White played Jolene in London. Elsewhere in London, the Buckingham Palace band played “9 to 5.”

All this and more for a woman born on January 19, 1946, in Sevier County, Tennessee, in a cabin in the Smoky Mountains without electricity or running water.

Dolly Rebecca Parton was the fourth of twelve children born to illiterate sharecropper Robert Lee Parton Sr. and Avie Lee Caroline Owens. A musical prodigy encouraged by her mother, Dolly was singing on local radio and television shows in Nashville by the time she was 10 and debuted at the Grand Ole Opry when she was 13. In 1964 she moved to Nashville, where other musicians quickly recognized her talent as a songwriter. Over her career, she would write songs made famous by Kenny Rogers, Merle Haggard, Waylon Jennings, Whitney Houston, Tina Turner, and others.

In 1965, Parton made her first record, and the following year she married asphalt paver Carl Dean, who stayed out of the limelight during their 59-year marriage. Following the success of Parton’s first record, country music star Porter Wagoner invited her to become part of his show in 1967.

There she blossomed, joining Wagoner to record a dozen studio albums that produced a number of top 10 hit singles. Playing off Wagoner’s famous rhinestone-studded suits made by Ukrainian-American designer Nudie Cohn, the petite Parton adopted huge hairstyles and emphasized her figure, and soon began wearing rhinestones herself.

She once told a journalist that she modeled her public image after a woman others called the “town tramp” but whom she saw as a glamorous contrast to the women in Parton’s own life. “She had bright red lipstick, long red fingernails. She had high-heeled shoes, little floating plastic goldfish in the heels of them, short skirts, low-cut tops, and I just thought she was beautiful. When people would say, ‘She ain’t nothing but trash,’ I would always say, ‘Well, that’s what I’m gonna be when I grow up.’” But, in an industry dominated by men, Parton also noted her style was a way for a small woman to “fill my space.”

By the 1970s, Parton was coming into her own, taking on the music industry on her own terms.

“Find out who you are and do it on purpose. And do it with purpose,” Parton was famous for saying. “Don’t ever sacrifice who you are, your principles and your morals and your values to just try to get ahead in business. It ain’t worth it.”

Rather than running from her upbringing in rural poverty, Parton embraced the values that upbringing had inspired in her. In 1971 she hit #1 on the country charts with her song “Joshua,” inspired by the Appalachian men around whom she had grown up whose rough looks covered their quality. In the same year, her “Coat of Many Colors” reached #4, telling the story of how her mother had made her a coat of rags, rich with love. Those who valued possessions over love, she sang, were the ones truly impoverished. In 1972 she wrote “My Tennessee Mountain Home,” about the peace and humanity of rural life, “walking home from church on Sunday with the one you love, just laughing, talking, making future plans.”

She parted ways with Wagoner in 1974, and her farewell song to him, “I Will Always Love You,” became a global sensation that reached #1 on the country charts in 1974, 1982, and again in 1992, when it spent 14 weeks at #1 after Whitney Houston covered it. In 1974, Parton also delivered “Jolene,” the desperate plea of a woman to a beautiful rival not to “take my man.” “Jolene,” too, hit #1 on the country charts.

In 1975 and 1976 the Country Music Association named Parton Female Vocalist of the Year, and in 1978 it honored her as Entertainer of the Year, just three of the many awards she would win as her musical career took off not just at home but also internationally.

In 1976, Parton began working with manager Sandy Gallin, and in 1980 she launched her film career, starring with Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin in 9 to 5, a comedy with a subversive subtext about discrimination against women. In the film, for which Parton wrote the theme song, three working women replace their sexist, domineering boss and implement programs their colleagues like, including equal pay, flexible hours, and an on-site daycare center, all of which result in dramatically improved office productivity.

A massive success at the box office, 9 to 5 opened doors for Parton in the movie industry, leading to parts in The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas, Steel Magnolias, and other films. She and Gallin created a production company, Sandollar, which produced her television specials and the television series Buffy the Vampire Slayer.

For almost sixty years, Parton was a member of the American Federation of Musicians of the United States and Canada, a labor union that represents about 70,000 singers and players and is affiliated with the AFL-CIO. She joined the Screen Actors Guild–American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) in 1969.

AFM International president Tino Gagliardi told John Nichols of The Nation: “Before she was an icon, Dolly was a working musician. Dolly never forgot the musicians who helped bring her music to life. By standing firm for solidarity and treating every player with dignity, she elevated our entire profession.”

In 1989, Sandollar helped to bring awareness and empathy to the AIDS crisis with the documentary Common Threads: Stories from the Quilt. The film explored the lives of five of the individuals memorialized in panels on the AIDS Memorial Quilt and called attention to the Reagan administration’s lack of response to the epidemic.

In 1990, Common Threads won the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature, and in the 1991 song “Family” that she wrote with Carl Perkins, Parton sang: “Some are preachers, some are gay, some are addicts, drunks, and strays, but not a one is turned away when it’s family. Some are lucky, others ain’t, some are fighters, others faint. Winners, losers, sinners, saints, it’s all family.”

In a conversation with host Larry King in 2016, Parton noted that she had taken heat for her support for the LGBTQ community, but that she did “not believe that we should criticize and judge other people. I think we should be accepting and loving. We are all God’s children. We are who we are, and we should be allowed to be who we are…. I just think that we should be more loving, more caring. We are who we are. If you’re gay, you’re gay. If you’re straight, you’re straight, and you should be allowed to be, you know, how you are, and who you are.”

In 1986, Parton bought an interest in a theme park owned by Jack and Pete Herschend in Pigeon Forge, Tennessee. Renamed “Dollywood,” the park became the biggest ticketed attraction in the state, now visited by about 4 million people a year and employing about 4,000. “I always thought that if I made it big or got successful at what I had started out to do, that I wanted to come back to my part of the country and do something great, something that would bring a lot of jobs into this area,” she told a reporter.

Two years later, she established the Dollywood Foundation to support education in Sevier County. In 1990, her “buddy” program decreased the high school dropout rate in classes that participated from 35% to 6%. In 2016, the Dollywood Foundation created the My People Fund—as in, these are my people—providing immediate financial assistance to families who lost their homes in wildfires in Sevier County that November. It donated more than $12 million.

In 2020, Parton donated $1 million to Vanderbilt University Medical Center to fund the research that allowed researchers to prove that mRNA vaccine technology worked. That research led to grants that enabled development of the Moderna mRNA vaccine against COVID-19 that saved millions of lives. She also helped encourage others to get vaccinated, taking her own shot on camera in a dress she had cut the shoulders out of so the doctor would have easier access.

Beginning in February 2022, under the Grow U program, Parton provided 100% free tuition, fees, and books to any of the 11,000 employees at any of the 25 amusement parks and attractions under Herschend Enterprises. The president of Dollywood told reporters that one of the key tenets of the Dollywood Foundation is to “learn more.” He said that Parton is “very supportive of the employees learning and continuing to grow themselves.”

That drive for growth and opportunity was behind Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library, which Parton founded in 1995 to put books into the hands of every young child in Sevier County. Her inspiration, she said, was her father, who was “the smartest man I have ever known but I know in my heart his inability to read probably kept him from fulfilling all his dreams.” The program has grown until it now serves children across the United States, Australia, Canada, Ireland, and the United Kingdom.

In February 2018, Parton donated the 100 millionth book from her Imagination Library to the Library of Congress. It was a copy of her book Coat of Many Colors, dedicated to her father.

By the time Dolly Parton died on Tuesday, August 25, at the age of 80, her Imagination Library had delivered more than 332 million books to more than 3 million children.

“When I was growing up in the hills of East Tennessee, I knew my dreams would come true,” the Imagination Library website reads. “I know there are children in your community with their own dreams. They dream of becoming a doctor or an inventor or a minister. Who knows, maybe there is a little girl whose dream is to be a writer and singer. The seeds of these dreams are often found in books and the seeds you help plant in your community can grow across the world.”

When children age out of Dolly’s Imagination Library, they receive a final letter from her hoping they would “have a great time” in school and urging them to keep reading.

The letter ends: “You and all of your friends are very special. There is no limit to what you can do or how far you can go. Just remember the lessons my family taught me—dream big dreams; learn everything you can learn; and care for all those who care for you. You do all of these things and you can be anyone you want to be.

“You are terrific, and remember…

“I Will Always Love You,

“Dolly.”

Notes:

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/feb/10/dolly-parton-dollywood-pay-tuition-employees-college-degree

https://www.wvlt.tv/2026/02/24/dollywood-preps-41st-season-with-new-coaster-events-record-attendance/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/02/09/dolly-parton-dollywood-tuition-education/

https://abc7chicago.com/archive/7386332/

https://dollywoodfoundation.org/history/

https://www.today.com/parents/moms/dolly-parton-mom-phrase-rcna208813

https://www.thenation.com/article/economy/dolly-parton-obituary-unions-9-to-5/

https://www.newsweek.com/list-of-songs-dolly-parton-wrote-that-became-big-hits-for-other-artists-12366118

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2026/aug/26/dolly-parton-style-fashion

https://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-sand-gallin-20170421-story.html

https://screenrant.com/dolly-parton-buffy-the-vampire-slayer-executive-producer-role/

https://www.dollyparton.com/

https://imaginationlibrary.com/

https://washingtonian.com/2018/02/28/photos-dolly-parton-donates-100-millionth-book-to-library-of-congress/

https://imaginationlibrary.com/letter-from-dolly/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/arts/music/dolly-parton-dead.html

https://shouldntneedtobealawyer.com/posts/dolly-parton-at-167673821?pr=true

https://people.com/all-about-dollywood-theme-park-12067846

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/dolly-partons-imagination-library-has-gifted-more-than-332-million-books-to-children-around-the-world

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/music/music-features/dolly-parton-dies-lgbt-advocacy-1236682086/

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Dlaczego nie Polska?

August 26, 2026

Of late, U.S. airlines have embarked on a flurry of international expansion. United, in particular, has been throwing darts at the map, moving into markets (Split, Kaohsiung, Ulaanbataar) many Americans have never heard of.

Yet one destination continues to remain conspicuously absent: Poland.

No U.S. carrier flies to Poland. Nor has any American carrier served Poland since Delta flew to Warsaw in the early 1990s, after its takeover of Pan Am’s European network. The city was dropped shortly thereafter.

Why? This isn’t a trick question. I don’t know the answer. Surely it’s odd. Not only are there millions of Polish-Americans, but the largest community of them lives in and around Chicago, a major hub for both American Airlines and United. Polish carrier LOT, meanwhile, has flown to both O’Hare and JFK for decades. We compete with foreign carriers on hundreds of routes; why not this one?

Is it a political thing? Is there not enough premium fare traffic to warrant such a flight?

A LOT Boeing 787 at New York’s JFK Airport.

The latter would seem a likely reason, but many of the recently unveiled routes are to lower-yield leisure markets. Surely Warsaw, or a summer route to Krakow, could bring in as much revenue as Sardinia or Tenerife or Dubrovnik, one would think.

American Airlines did announce a Chicago-Warsaw flight just before COVID hit. The launch was put on hold, then the whole idea was scrapped.

The Israeli carrier El Al sometimes operates charters from JFK to the Polish city of Katowice. My guess is that these are remembrance tours of some kind, as the Auschwitz-Birkenau site is nearby to there.

While were at it, what other “missing routes” are you there? Can you name another city-pair that seemingly should have regular service, but for whatever reasons doesn’t?

 

The post Dlaczego nie Polska? appeared first on AskThePilot.com.

LatConnect 60 and Phi Earth Partner to Connect Space and Soil

latconnect 60 logo

Nature-based projects are generating more environmental data than ever before. Satellites observe landscapes from orbit, while field teams capture what is happening on the ground. Yet these data sources often […]

The post LatConnect 60 and Phi Earth Partner to Connect Space and Soil appeared first on SpaceNews.

RTX’s Blue Canyon Technologies introduces new spacecraft mission enabler

LAFAYETTE, Colo. (August 26, 2026) — Small satellite manufacturer and mission services provider Blue Canyon Technologies, part of RTX’s (NYSE: RTX) Raytheon business, has unveiled its latest spacecraft subsystem, the […]

The post RTX’s Blue Canyon Technologies introduces new spacecraft mission enabler appeared first on SpaceNews.

The threat environment and processing at the edge

In this episode, SpaceNews’ Mike Gruss interviews FrontGrade CTO Lorne Graves. They discuss how processing power on spacecraft is adapting to the rise of megaconstellations, what benefits satellite processing power […]

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Reverse fertility tourism--Americans traveling abroad for more affordable IVF

The US is a destination for people needing assisted reproductive technology (ART) to have a child, often because it is unavailable in their home country. Surrogacy has been much in the news in this respect, but IVF is also restricted in many places.  But American ART is expensive, so some Americans are traveling abroad for the sake of ART.

The Washington Post has the story: 

Why some couples are combining a European vacation with their IVF treatments
A growing number of Americans are looking abroad, particularly to Greece and Spain, to escape the high cost of fertility treatments at home.
 by LJ Dawson

" A study of insured Americans released in July and commissioned by the Women’s Reproductive Health Foundation found that the overall cost for a cycle of IVF was more than $29,000 — or about 35 percent of the median annual household income in the U.S. Genetic testing, embryo storage, pregnancy care and delivery costs can push the total over $54,000 per IVF-conceived birth, according to the study. An average patient needs two to three cycles to have a child, so the costs for many patients would be even higher.

"Infertility affects nearly 7 million people in the U.S., but only an estimated 24 percent of treatment needs are met, because of those high costs and limited insurance coverage, according to the American Society for Reproductive Medicine. The condition is believed to be rising partly because of people having children later, as well as environmental factors such as pollution.

"Still, more than 100,000 babies were born via IVF in the U.S. in 2024 — a record, according to the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology. An increasing share of people hoping to be parents are seeking help in Europe: The number of Americans choosing European clinics grew by more than 37 percent last year, according to Jakub Dejewski, chair of the European Fertility Society, a group that tracks data on fertility treatment in Europe. 

...

"The price of IVF and uncertainty around proposed personhood legislation in Florida, which the Solomons feared could jeopardize their control over their embryos, sent them to the Pelargos IVF Medical Group in Athens. There, in the first of two trips, Emilie underwent ovulation stimulation and egg retrieval.

"Including medication, fertilization, storage and the ultimate embryo insertion, the total treatment (excluding travel expenses) cost about $12,000, according to the Solomons, a fraction of what they might have spent in the U.S. "

The Antitrust Academy

The Antitrust Academy is an online platform hosting hundreds of videos comprising a complete course in antitrust law and economics. Teachers include Judge Douglas Ginsburg, Jon Klick, Joshua Wright and others. I am an advisor. A great resource whether you are learning this material for the first time or need to brush up on some legal or economic doctrines.

The post The Antitrust Academy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Important results on economic mobility

We use more than 900 million linked employer–employee records covering the entire formal workforce of Brazil to examine when cities provide upward mobility for the initially poor. We find that upward mobility for low-wage workers is strongest in workplaces that combine low-wage individuals with high-wage workers. This association is particularly pronounced in Brazil’s southern cities, where more complex industries include workers with a wider range of skills. The association is weaker in northern cities, where formal employment is dominated by the public sector.

Here is the paper by Radu BarzaEdward GlaeserCésar A. Hidalgo, and Martina Viarengo.   And here is a useful thread on the paperThis is one of the best and most important economics papers I have seen in the last few years.

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The least bad way to regulate AI?

That is the topic of my latest Free Press column.  Excerpt:

The key is to create some basic safeguards, but without stifling broader AI progress. To do so, we must defy the conventional wisdom about public oversight and instead trust the AI labs to be their own primary regulators.

My version of the proposal starts with defining a private not-for-profit body for AI regulation. An ideal body would draw some features from FINRA (the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority): a consortium of financial firms that examines the trade practices of each and makes recommendations, helping the federal Securities and Exchange Commission with oversight and regulation. The AI version would include the major labs and would be authorized and overseen by Washington, perhaps through the now-fledgling Center for AI Standards and Innovation.

This body would periodically audit major AI companies and their models, judging their conduct and safety. In the short run at least, much of this would be focused on issues of cybersecurity, and whether the new models created more cyber risk than they help to solve. If a company passed the audit, it would be exempted from standard liability law, at least provided that it had shown basic, reasonable care, as opposed to extreme or deliberate negligence. That would free the AI labs from the fear that courts might derail their business by granting huge awards to plaintiffs for ill-defined harms that could not reasonably have been prevented. And it would give the labs a strong incentive to meet the safety standards of this body.

It is reasonable to wonder whether such a body, composed of industry players, would issue fair and equitable judgments of safety. Maybe not. Yet there are many upsides and no better alternative.

For one thing, each company knows that a dangerous model from another company could cause a harmful incident and damage the prospects for the entire industry. Consider the Three Mile Island meltdown in 1979, which contributed significantly to the mothballing of the entire U.S. nuclear industry. Few people can name the company (Metropolitan Edison) behind the malfunctioning plant; the reputational penalty attached to the industry as a whole.

Another incentive for safety is that the top companies do not want too much competition from lower-price, lower-quality upstarts. That too will induce those companies to support fairly tough standards, perhaps excessively tough in some cases. Still, we are choosing from imperfect alternatives. The concrete truth, whether we like it or not, is that there is far more expertise within the companies for judging AI safety than we can expect to find in the federal government anytime soon.

I am indebted to some ideas from Dean Ball, noting that his proposal is somewhat different.  And here are some comments from Brendan McCord.

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Quoting Paul Dix

The fact that AI wrote 1M LOC and then refined it over the course of the next couple of months to produce a reliable piece of software that is currently running on millions of developer machines is absolutely mind blowing. And you can say, “well it’s not that impressive because they had an oracle to compare against, so it was simple to go from one language to another”, but I think that’s selling this entire thing short. If you can build a verification system and give proper direction, AI can produce a highly complex, highly sophisticated piece of software and it can continue to refine it until it just works.

Paul Dix, The end of programming

Tags: coding-agents, ai-assisted-programming, generative-ai, bun, ai, llms

The Realest Longevity Guru - EP 85 Alex Colville

Over the past five years, Alex Colville has become one of the most influential figures in the longevity and aging fields.

There’s a decent chance you have not heard of him, which is a bit by design. Unlike many longevity gurus, Colville does not seek much attention and, for the most part, operates in the background where he’s been doling out many millions of dollars in investments. Today, Colville runs age1, a venture capital firm that has backed the likes of Loyal, Science, Conception and a bunch of other companies listed as “Stealth” on its web site.

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Colville is the guy I call to reality check whatever is being hyped up in Longevity Land. He studies the actual science. He reaches sober conclusions. He’s honest about where the technology is today and what might show promise in the future.

In this episode, we get into Colville’s takes on GLP-1s, partial cell reprogramming, China’s biotech rise, the odd animals teaching us the most about longevity and, well, the prospects of living forever. We also get into Colville’s life and unusual rise as the longevity kingmaker, and, of course, we discuss keeping a human head alive without a body because what choice did we have.

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Timestamps (they link out to YouTube)

0:00 Intro
2:41 Meet the Switzerland of Aging
8:01 Why Did Aging Become the Enemy?
10:28 What Can an Axolotl Teach Us?
26:23 What Works in Worms, but Not Yet in Humans?
30:16 The Longevity Expert Who Takes Nothing
34:37 Are GLP-1s Already Anti-Aging Drugs?
44:14 Can We Make Old Cells Young Again?
58:48 What Do Hibernating Squirrels Know?
1:05:02 When Does Medicine Become an Upgrade?
1:09:57 Has CRISPR Lived Up to the Hype?
1:12:43 What Are Altos and Calico Really Doing?
1:20:24 The Breakthrough That Could Change Everything
1:25:14 Will China Win the Biology Race?
1:28:24 Why a Virtual Cell Is Not a Cell
1:30:28 A Head in a Waymo?

Rare, Widespread Snow in the Atacama Desert

August 6, 2026
August 14, 2026
A plateau in the Chilean Andes is surrounded by stratovolcanoes and lava domes. The dry, mostly brown landscape has a lighter brown patch near the center, marking the radio telescope array.
A plateau in the Chilean Andes is surrounded by stratovolcanoes and lava domes. The dry, mostly brown landscape has a lighter brown patch near the center, marking the radio telescope array.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
The same plateau is now blanketed in white snow. The location of the radio telescope array is nearly indistinguishable from the surrounding terrain.
The same plateau is now blanketed in white snow. The location of the radio telescope array is nearly indistinguishable from the surrounding terrain.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
A plateau in the Chilean Andes is surrounded by stratovolcanoes and lava domes. The dry, mostly brown landscape has a lighter brown patch near the center, marking the radio telescope array.
A plateau in the Chilean Andes is surrounded by stratovolcanoes and lava domes. The dry, mostly brown landscape has a lighter brown patch near the center, marking the radio telescope array.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
The same plateau is now blanketed in white snow. The location of the radio telescope array is nearly indistinguishable from the surrounding terrain.
The same plateau is now blanketed in white snow. The location of the radio telescope array is nearly indistinguishable from the surrounding terrain.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
August 6, 2026
August 14, 2026

Part of northern Chile transforms from bare to snow-covered in these images captured before and after winter storms in August 2026 by the NASA-USGS Landsat 8 and Landsat 9 satellites. NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin.

In August 2026, back-to-back winter storms left parts of the Atacama Desert in northern Chile covered in a rare blanket of snow. The typically arid region has seen snowfall before, notably in 2025 and before that in 2011. But one of the 2026 events was unusually widespread, stretching from the Andes to near the Pacific coast.

The OLI (Operational Land Imager) on the NASA-USGS Landsat 8 and Landsat 9 satellites captured these images (above) on August 6 and August 14, before and after a period of severe weather, respectively. They show a detailed view of the Chajnantor plateau within the Altiplano-Puna volcanic complex, home to the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA)—one of the planet’s most powerful radio telescopes. As snow and high winds set in, ALMA suspended operations, moving its antennas into a protective survival mode.

A wide view of northern Chile, Argentina, and southern Bolivia and Peru shows snow cover after a storm, stretching from the Andes into the core of the Atacama Desert. In one spot, a patch of snow reaches nearly to Chile's Pacific coast.
A blanket of snow spans a vast area of northern Chile, from the Andes to near the Pacific coast, captured in this image on August 19, 2026, by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Another storm in the second half of the month blanketed an even wider area with fresh snowfall. This image, captured by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite on August 19, shows snow extending westward from the Andes, across the desert’s hyper-arid core, and close to the Pacific coast south of the Chilean port city of Antofagasta. This coastal area is home to several other major astronomical observatories, some of which also suspended operations during the event.

Most of the region’s winter precipitation comes from cutoff lows—low-pressure systems that become cut off from the jet stream and can occasionally reach northern Chile. That’s what happened in 2025, said René Garreaud, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Chile. The late-August 2026 storm also came from a cutoff low, but this one spun off from an unusually large trough—an elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure—that spanned an enormous stretch of the hemisphere, from the tip of South America up into the subtropics.

The atmospheric disruption, combined with ample coastal moisture, produced precipitation that spanned an unusually wide swath of the region—offshore, along the coast, across the core of the Atacama, and over the Andes. Totals reached a magnitude “rarely seen in the otherwise extremely arid region,” Garreaud said.

In some areas it fell as rain, not snow. Taltal, for instance, on Chile’s northern coast, accumulated nearly 40 millimeters (1.6 inches) of rain in three days—about 10 times its annual mean, Garreaud said. “We see these kinds of events only a few times, if any, per decade.”

The abundant precipitation spurred destructive mudflows and flash flooding in parts of northern Chile. The National Disaster Prevention and Response Service (SENAPRED) reported thousands were affected and hundreds of homes had major damage. 

Garreaud noted that the strengthening El Niño is the backdrop for the anomalously wet winter in north-central Chile. In addition to the August storms, a major event in July brought significant impacts to the country’s Norte Chico region. During El Niño, the subtropical Pacific high—which normally keeps the region dry—weakens, while a blocking high tends to form in the South Pacific near the tip of the continent. Together, these shifts push the Southern Hemisphere storm track equatorward.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

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The death of Market Street

I still remember the first time I set foot on Market Street. I was a freshman in college, and big cities were still a very new thing to me. It felt like I was swimming through an ocean of foot traffic; the towering shops and hotels seemed like they were built by giants.

That Market Street is gone now. In its place is a giant empty field of asphalt in the center of San Francisco — a desolate gray waste baking in the sun, empty except for the occasional bus and a tiny smattering of bicycles.

On either side of this yawning wasteland are giant sidewalks with only a few pedestrians, boarded-up stores, and the occasional small, sad retail chain. At midday on a Monday, what was once the bustling commercial heart of San Francisco feels abandoned.

What happened? In fact, Market Street was destroyed by several things:

  1. The city’s decision to close the street to cars (but not buses), enacted in 2019

  2. The crime wave of the early 2020s

  3. The pandemic, and the shift to remote work

The second and third of these, together, are known as the “Doom Loop”. It’s been talked about a lot, so let’s just cover it briefly.

The pandemic, and the economic and social changes it brought, came out of the blue. But San Francisco was particularly vulnerable to the shock. As in many American cities, 20th century urban planning and zoning rules concentrated office buildings in the downtown area and put housing farther out. This meant that once people stopped going downtown for work, the neighborhood was just a lot more empty, because almost no one lives there. This is in contrast to big cities in Europe and Asia, where downtown neighborhoods are typically mixed-use. (SF also had a stronger shift to remote work, because of the heavy presence of the tech industry.)

The crime wave was another shock. Although SF escaped the destructive rioting that hit other West Coast cities like Seattle, Portland, and Los Angeles in 2020, it had plenty of looting in downtown areas — especially around Union Square and the San Francisco Centre mall on Market Street. Even after the pandemic ended, San Francisco suffered especially hard from the statewide wave of “smash-and-grab” store thefts. It got so bad that American Eagle actually sued the San Francisco Centre for being negligent toward crime, reporting over 100 serious incidents of violence and harassment in its downtown store.

Crime and emptiness fed on each other. Less foot traffic meant fewer “eyes on the street” to discourage property crime. Property crime and reduced foot traffic forced stores to close. Fewer stores meant less foot traffic, and so on. The collapse of downtown culminated in January 2026 with the closure of the San Francisco Centre, the iconic mall that had formed the commercial heart of Market Street, but which had been gutted by the Doom Loop. It now stands as a looming, empty, boarded-up structure dominating the area around the Powell Street train station:

The intersection of Powell Street and Market Street, once bustling and alive with tourists, shoppers, and street vendors, is now virtually empty, except for a forlorn line of people waiting to get on the iconic streetcar:

But recent years have seen the first glints of recovery from the Doom Loop. For one thing, crime has begun to fall. 2025 alone saw a 27% decrease in property crime, including a 29% decrease in burglaries, a 22% decrease in larceny (including retail theft), and a 24% decrease in robbery. 2026 has seen further drops. The reasons for this are interesting, but I’ll go into them another time. Suffice it to say that this has made downtown SF feel much safer and more orderly. The stereotype of SF as being overrun by drug addicts and dangerous vagrants still holds true of a few areas of the city, but from Powell Street to the bay, the city no longer feels like a post-apocalyptic movie.

Meanwhile, the business district is showing a few sluggish signs of life. The AI boom is causing a (modest) rebound in the demand for office space. Some office buildings are being converted to housing, raising hopes that SF’s downtown can finally become a mixed-use neighborhood. A concerted effort to revive Union Square after the devastation of 2020 is beginning to bear fruit. And both companies and the SF city government are mandating return-to-office policies.

And yet Market Street remains a dead zone. Weekday foot traffic is still down by half compared to 2019:

The wounds inflicted by the Doom Loop will take lots more time and effort to heal. Retail businesses have to be encouraged to open. Defunct buildings have to be torn down and rebuilt. Crime has to be reduced even further, and so on. This will all take years.

But there’s one other factor contributing to the death of San Francisco’s most important street, and it began before the pandemic: The ban on cars.

In recent years, a number of cities around the world have experimented with car-free zones and traffic reduction policies in their downtown areas. The most famous of these is Paris, with its Limited Traffic Zone, its expansion of pedestrian malls, and its road closures during Sundays and holidays. Shortly before the pandemic, San Francisco decided to enact a plan its leaders thought was in the same spirit: closing downtown Market Street to all car traffic:

Source: SFMTA

But although Market Street was closed to cars, it wasn’t closed to buses, delivery trucks, and licensed taxis. This was in keeping with the general “transit good, cars bad” thinking of modern progressive urbanism. But a bus will kill a pedestrian just as easily as a car will, which is why Market Street remains empty of pedestrian traffic. This mathematically guaranteed that Market Street would become a more empty place: Cars were subtracted, but pedestrians weren’t added.

The direct cost of this policy is pretty obvious. When people can’t park in a parking garage on Market, and when Uber and Lyft can’t pick people up and drop people off on the street, it makes businesses on the street less attractive to visit. Sure, people could bike or take the train, but not everyone wants to do that; instead, they’ll just go to restaurants or stores in other areas. In addition, restaurants on Market Street now can’t deliver food, cutting them off from an important source of revenue. That probably helps explain why Market has suffered more from the Doom Loop than other areas.

But what did SF gain by deleting cars from Market Street and adding nothing at all in their place? Cars create a little bit of pollution (though modern cars are very clean), so that was removed. Pedestrians who run off the sidewalk and into the street are somewhat less in danger of being killed (though still in danger). These are meager benefits indeed.

What about bike traffic? Presumably, reduced danger of being hit by a car would allow more cyclists to ride down Market Street. But in fact, bike traffic on the street is considerably lower than it was pre-pandemic:

Source: SFMTA

A lot of that is the Doom Loop — there are simply fewer stores for cyclists to visit on Market Street, so there’s less reason for them to go there. But much of downtown hasn’t collapsed the way Market Street has, and presumably cyclists could use the street as a way to get to places like the Embarcadero, Chinatown, etc. They’re not doing it. Cyclists are a relatively rare sight on Market these days.

One reason might be that although the city planned to make the car-free stretch of Market more bike-friendly, it never really followed up on those plans. So it’s still pretty dangerous to ride a bike or scooter down the street — you can get caught in the train tracks, and you can get hit by a bus or truck.

In fact, this sloppy implementation is a general pattern with the Market Street closure. Josh Koehn had a great article in 2023 about how the plan degenerated from its initial form:

A $600 million capital project called Better Market Street promised to create a futuristic boulevard that would safely buffer bicycles and scooters on elevated sidewalk lanes, separating the little wheels from rapid bus lines, vintage streetcars and pedestrians…The new vision for Market Street, advocates said, would create a safer, more vibrant multimodal avenue…More than a decade of planning went into alterations of Market Street…

But funds for anything beyond modest improvements along a three-block stretch of Market Street between Fifth and Eighth streets…have evaporated…The cost of Better Market Street, which soared above a billion dollars before being reined in to a still-staggering $604 million, is almost double the amount spent on the tormented Van Ness Avenue redesign

City officials enraged safe streets advocates when they announced in late 2020 that the elevated bike lanes on sidewalks would be scrapped.

SF’s lack of state capacity had a lot to do with this; constant cost overruns inevitably require ambitious projects to be scaled back. The pandemic also obviously got in the way. But part of what killed the vision for Market Street is simply that the vision itself was never very good.

If you look at Paris, it’s immediately clear how that city’s car-limitation measures were designed to create spaces for pedestrians. In certain areas like the banks of the Seine, Paris didn’t just ban cars; it also banned buses and trucks, so that people could walk safely. Paris also reserved much larger areas for pedestrians on certain days.

But Market Street has no more pedestrian areas than it did in 2019. You can still only walk on the sidewalk. If the entire street were reserved for foot traffic during certain times — like SF does with Valencia Street, for example — then these periodic temporary pedestrianizations could become an event that regularly draws lots of people to the area. This could include farmers’ markets, street concerts, and other fun events. Those would give people a reason to walk around Market Street even before new businesses opened.

Alternatively, if SF permanently closed off some portion of the street to buses and trucks, that stretch of road could become a pedestrian public square, similar to the center of Times Square:

Photo by Terabass via Wikimedia Commons

Instead of thinking about how to create spaces that people would actually want to walk around in, the SF government — and the many activist groups and nonprofits that influence its policy — appear to have adhered to the simple rule of “bikes and buses good, cars bad”.

This is a way of thinking centered around modes of transit rather than public space. It implicitly conceives of areas like Market Street as thoroughfares to take people from one place to another, rather than as actual destinations. Market Street’s car closure is all about forcing people to go down Market Street in a different way, rather than about encouraging people to go to Market Street.

There’s something inescapably and depressingly suburban about this way of thinking. In the suburbs, life is lived point-to-point — you go from house to strip-mall to restaurant to office without thinking much about the places you traverse in between. In a suburb, the mode of transportation — how you get from Point A to Point B — is the important question.

Americans are a suburban people; even many of our urban areas look like suburbs in other countries. So perhaps it’s inevitable that the urbanists who closed Market Street off to car traffic would think entirely about modes of transportation and ignore the vibrant city center whose destruction they exacerbated. Instead of Jane Jacobs, they ended up just being the Robert Moses of buses.

Again, careful attention to car limitations in cities like Paris, where people are used to occupying urban places instead of simply whizzing through them, would have proven enlightening. Paris’s Limited Traffic Zone doesn’t ban cars in downtown areas; it merely bans cars from transiting through those areas. People who stay within the area can still drive. The point is to make downtown spaces into places people occupy rather than places people simply go through. What San Francisco did to Market Street was, in many ways, the exact opposite.

In lieu of turning Market Street into a pedestrian paradise, SF’s best move is probably just to allow private cars again. It’s not the optimal way to create more foot traffic to nourish retail businesses, but it’s the quickest and easiest. In fact, Mayor Daniel Lurie has made moves in this direction, allowing certain Uber, Lyft, and Waymo cars to operate on the street. But they might as well simply go all the way. Best to simply bury the era when Market Street was a large empty scar commemorating the decline of San Francisco; if San Francisco can’t be Paris, at least it can return to what it used to be.


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Der Untergang

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Note: After I recorded this it was reported that Trump officials are threatening to demolish the Kennedy Center if it can’t be renovated to Trump’s taste (and presumably with his name added). Matches my argument exactly.

Der Untergang naht.

Pardon my German pronunciation. I’m going to take a break today from wonky economic analysis and talk about, well, Donald Trump, but in a slightly different way from what I think most people are saying. Not positive, obviously.

Just before recording this, I saw that Trump wants to rename Lake Ontario Lake America. Which is silly, would be funny, except that this guy is the President of the United States. And it’s really kind of troublesome that someone in that position is that out of it, that petty, disconnected from reality.

And look, it’s not news to anybody that Trump is ego-driven, disconnected from reality, and at the same time, somehow commands a level of deference and obedience from the entire machinery of the federal government that no president has ever had before. So this is really quite serious.

What I don’t think people are fully aware of is just how bad it can get, given that Trump is so obviously dissociating, decompensating, that he’s not all there.

Obviously, he was already a very problematic personality, which was doing a great deal of damage to the United States. I don’t think even now people fully appreciate the amount of damage that has been done. Even before the Iran War, Trump’s provocations, insults, his trade wars, really destroyed the world’s trust in America.

America became a country that could not be trusted to honor agreements. It was a country that constantly tried to bully other countries. Our word was worth nothing. Our sanity was not to be taken for granted. And then, of course, along comes Iran, where in addition to showing that we’re not to be trusted, that we’re not going to be relied upon., we also showed that we were far weaker than people imagined.

If there’s one thing people thought it was, well, America has a powerful military. It turns out, well, not as powerful and not nearly as competent as people thought. How much of that is the result of Trump and Hegseth degrading it and how much of it was there to begin with is an interesting question. But anyway, at this point, we are not loved, we are not respected, and we aren’t even feared.

And we’re not getting that back. Even if Trump is succeeded by someone decent —God help us if he isn’t— but even if we have a more or less rational, well-intentioned government that follows, the world now knows that we are capable of putting someone like Trump in a position of unprecedented, almost absolute power and that it can happen again.

And the world also knows that we’re just not as fearsome as we seem to be. That we can be defied much more successfully even by smallish countries than anyone really imagined.

And we’re not getting that back. I anxiously wait for the days when we’re no longer a Trump-ruled country, but this is my country, and what will be left of us, what will be left of our role in the world, even once he’s gone?

Okay, the title I gave, the way that I opened this talk was Der Untergang, which is the German title of the movie Downfall, about the last days of Adolf Hitler. I hope that nobody is going to complain about my using the German, right? We’re long past the point where it’s considered unthinkable and incredibly rude to make Nazi parallels. There’s a lot of people in this administration or close to this administration who are effectively Nazis, in some cases explicitly Nazis. America is not yet Germany under Hitler. But the reason we don’t have a functioning Gestapo in this country is not for lack of desire to have one. It’s because these people, at least so far, don’t have the juice. So all of the stuff, all of the parallels seem appropriate.

And the parallels are there. I mean, the parallels are there even in seemingly small things. Hitler was obsessed with building a gigantic gaudy ballroom. So there’s just a lot of parallels in there.

Now the main message of the movie Der Untergang is that it’s about Hitler in his final days who knew that he was losing. He knew that defeat was looming. He knew that his power was collapsing. And his reaction was, among other things, to take it out on his own country.

Hitler never accepted that he had failed Germany. He felt that Germany had failed him. And so he had a plan, often called the Nero Decree, which was to destroy as much as possible of Germany’s infrastructure. Supposedly to deny it to the victorious allies, but in large part to punish Germany.

Well, Trump knows. He may deny it, he may have his moments when he actually believes that the polls are all fake and all of that, but in many ways he is behaving like somebody who knows that his days of supreme power are about to end. He, of course, is not going to accept that it’s his fault. It’s the fault, obviously, of the Democrats, who are all communists. It’s the fault of the Republicans, who didn’t live up to his leadership. The fault of everybody but him.

What does he do in the position of losing? Probably not committing suicide in the Fuhrerbunker, but still in the position of losing all of his power. Well, what you do in that position, if you are somebody like Trump, who is an empty vessel: there’s nothing in there, the only pleasure he appears to take in life comes from dominating other people.

Well, one thing you do is you try to stick your name everywhere, or leave your imprint everywhere. So Trump, according to reporting by Swan and Haberman, spends most of his time thinking about his construction projects and trying to leave his mark on everything in Washington.

What I don’t think we’re fully appreciating even about those projects is that there isn’t a whole lot of actual construction. There’s a lot of starting of stuff, but so far it’s been mostly destruction, mostly tearing stuff down. We don’t have a triumphal arch, but we have a hole where the ballroom is supposed to be. We have just a lot of damage having been done to our nation’s capital and to the iconic structures that were supposed to define, symbolize who we are as a country. The scale of the destruction is really quite amazing.

So I’m not going to try fancy video editing here. I’m just going to show you a picture of what the environs of the White House look like right now. There you go. That bare area is the South Lawn, ripped up because of Trump’s cage match. You can see in the corner there the hole in the ground, which is where the east wing of the White House used to be. Basically, Trump has left, so far, wreckage in his wake.

Even the things which have not involved tearing stuff down, the gilding of statues, the horrific redecoration of the White House, is surpassingly ugly. That’s partly because Trump has terrible taste, but it’s also, I think, a clear sign of aggression. He’s saying, oh yeah, you’re going to give me a 33% approval rating? Well, I’m going to make the nation’s capital as ugly as I can in this little time as I possibly can.

Now, this is all superficial. This is stuff that can and will be repaired. It’ll cost a lot of money, but OK. So we’ll rebuild the White House. We’ll reseed the South Lawn. We’ll strip the gilding off the statues. We’ll make the White House a dignified place again.

But how much more will be coming? When we talk about Hitler’s last days, as I said, one of his last attempted acts was what’s called the Nero Decree, which was an attempt to destroy as much of Germany’s infrastructure as possible, supposedly to deny it to the victorious allies. But clearly, and even there’s some evidence that he actually he clearly thought this as a way of punishing the German people for failing him.

Now, historiography is a little more complicated than that, as it usually is, but that’s clearly the gist of it. That Hitler’s final acts were to basically try to bring everyone else down with him.

Do you really want to say that that’s not what’s going to happen with Trump? Assuming that he loses much, if not all, of his power to shape events this November, and of course we’re all worried about how he may try to disrupt or overturn the election, but assuming he doesn’t manage to do that, he will find himself much diminished. How much damage will he do basically taking revenge on America?

Because always you want to bear in mind that Trump hates America. He hates the values on which America was built. He hates democracy. He hates rule of law. He hates all of the things that are what we’re supposed to be about as a nation.

But increasingly it looks as if he just plain hates this country because it doesn’t love him. How much damage will he do? How much damage can he do? I don’t want to make a specific prediction, but I’m worried.

And don’t say that he won’t do that or he can’t do that. Those have been famous last words again and again over the past decade. So this is going to be even worse, even uglier, I think than most people imagine.

Have a great rest of your day.

Qwen3.8-Flash-Next

Qwen3.8-Flash-Next

Another open weights model from Qwen. This one is "a multimodal MoE model that also serves as an early preview of the architecture used in Qwen4".

It's pretty big: 125B tokens, but only 6B active which means it gets a significant performance boost.

I've been trying it out on a DGX Spark using these Unsloth quantized models. I'm still exploring the model - so far I've tried the 72.5GB UD-IQ1_S one (producing these pelicans) and the 78.9GB UD-Q2_K_XL (producing these).

My favorite so far was this xhigh reasoning effort one from UD-Q2_K_XL:

Flat vector illustration: a white pelican with an orange beak and orange legs rides a red bicycle along a sandy path, a wicker basket on the handlebars holding a blue fish, with green rolling hills, a small tree and bushes, white clouds and a bright yellow sun in a blue sky behind it

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, qwen, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, ai-in-china, nvidia-spark

Spyware for Babies

The New York Times has a long article (alt link) on surveillance systems aimed at babies. They are increasingly using AI.

Nanit and its rivals want to own 24/7 health tracking for the sub-four-foot set. And their already astonishing levels of baby data collection are just the beginning. Nanit recently raised $50 million from investors to expand its use of A.I. and use its camera to track speech and language development, motor skills and more, while extending its presence in children’s bedrooms into early adolescence.

Wednesday 26 August 1663

Up, and after doing something in order to the putting of my house in order now the joynery is done, I went by water to White Hall, where the Court full of waggons and horses, the King and Court going this day out towards the Bath, and I to St. James’s, where I spent an hour or more talking of many things to my great content with Mr. Coventry in his chamber, he being ready to set forth too with the Duke to-day, and so left him, and I meeting Mr. Gauden, with him to our offices and in Sir W. Pen’s chamber did discourse by a meeting on purpose with Mr. Waith about the victualling business and came to some issue in it.

So home to dinner, and Mr. Moore came and dined with me, and after dinner I paid him some money which evened all reckonings between him and me to this day, and for my Lord also I paid him some money, so that now my Lord owes me, for which I have his bond, just 700l..

After long discourse with him of the fitness of his giving me a receipt for this money, which I for my security think necessary and he otherwise do not think so, at last, after being a little angry, and I resolving not to let go my money without it, he did give me one.

Thence I took him, and he and I took a pleasant walk to Deptford and back again, I doing much business there. He went home and I home also, indoors to supper, being very glad to see my house begin to look like itself again, hoping after this is over not to be in any dirt a great while again, but it is very handsome, and will be more when the floors come to be of one colour.

So weary to bed.

Pleased this day to see Captain Hickes come to me with a list of all the officers of Deptford Yard, wherein he, being a high old Cavalier, do give me an account of every one of them to their reproach in all respects, and discovers many of their knaverys; and tells me, and so I thank God I hear every where, that my name is up for a good husband for the King, and a good man, for which I bless God; and that he did this by particular direction of Mr. Coventry.

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Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


830
ACPN50 PHFO 272336
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Karina, located well south of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula, as well as newly formed Tropical Storm
Lowell, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lala, located several
hundred miles north of Kure Atoll.

Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well south or southwest of the
Hawaiian Islands over the weekend or early next week. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, well offshore of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karina are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Karina are issued under WMO
header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lowell are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lowell are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Evans/Pierce
NNNN


Links 8/26/26

Links for you. Science:

Staggering 90% of biomedical papers now show signs of AI help. The figure, which is much higher than previous estimates of Large Language Model use, is for papers published in December and archived in PubMed
The Case Against Splitting Up the MMR Vaccine
Outputs of generative diffusion models are often unattributable
What really happened on Easter Island? For decades, an influential theory blamed the Rapanui for their own downfall—a story made famous by Jared Diamond’s book Collapse. New evidence tells a different tale
Emergence Biases in Molecular Evolution
‘They Want Us All To Leave’: Interior Reassigns Dozens of Senior Staff
“I’m Not Talking About 2020. I’m Talking About 2026.”

Other:

Eyeing the midterm elections, D.C. is taking the fight for statehood to the states
Dolly Parton, Public Health Hero, Dies at 80
The Man Behind the Anti-Flock Darth Vader Mask Wants to Know: ‘When Will This End?’
Canada’s Resistance Benefits the US. Trump is our oppressor; those who fight him help us.
No matter what, we have to tear down Trump’s corrupt ballroom (Damnatio memoriae must be an essential part of detrumpification)
Calif. colleges bought everyone ChatGPT. No one knows what to do with it.
Trump Officials Propose Sale of ‘Woke’ Painting by Kehinde Wiley. The State Department recently removed the painting of Dominicans from a U.S. embassy, noting it was by the artist who made Barack Obama’s presidential portrait.
Trump’s Obsession With Dominance Has Made Him a Huge Loser
Police departments weren’t looking for officers abusing Flock. We did it for them.
Oyez, Oyez and Ahoy! Paddlers Protest John Roberts’ Private Island
Trump Administration Has a Different Way to Drain Harvard Funding
So the most powerful person in the world is insane. Now what?
We Asked the Women of the SEC About “Shrekking”
Main Character Syndrome
KING CARNEY ACTIVATES KONG MODE WITH ZERO FUCKS
Two weeks. No power. Gary, Indiana, failed Black citizens. Like many others, Indiana has entered the data center race and is particularly attractive due to the availability of cheap land. NIPSCO, a monopoly utility that serves Gary, is leading the effort.
What’s more punk than … a sewing machine?
Trump takeover has been a financial disaster for the Kennedy Center
Raze Application Filed For Howard’s Wonder Plaza, Clearing Path For New Fusion Building
Losing the Iran War: The Economic Front
Anacostia River water quality improves, but it’s still not safe for swimming
First deaths from measles in Pennsylvania in 35 years
The AI Hater’s Manifesto
Trump administration says it might demolish the Kennedy Center if court blocks renovations
Kennedy Center finances deteriorated sharply after Trump name change
It Should Be Harder to Apply for a Job. No, Really. Thanks to a dwindling supply of open roles, “one-click” applications, and the rise of artificial intelligence, it’s easier than ever to apply for a job. We’re all paying the price.
How Trump’s Crazed Fury at Canada Is Already Backfiring Badly for Him
Farmers Struggle to Get Basic Services From Depleted Agriculture Dept. After the departure of thousands of federal workers, rural communities report problems obtaining loans, grants, technical assistance and support for infrastructure and other services.
Trump’s border wall construction threatens rock art as old as the pyramids: ‘The ancestors are still here’
DHS acknowledges the noncitizen numbers it touted on voter rolls were inflated

15,000 years of solar wind in four hours? A Seattle company gives it a go.

As part of its nuclear fusion processes, the Sun produces a particularly interesting isotope of helium, known as helium-3. Some of this helium-3 escapes the Sun's gravitational pull as part of the solar wind, a stream of charged particles that emanates out across the Solar System.

Over billions of years, this wind has bombarded every body in the vicinity of the Sun, including Earth's Moon. Lacking a magnetic field or atmosphere, the Moon's surface has no barrier to prevent the constant flow of this wind.

This means that helium-3 has been striking the lunar soil, or regolith, for a long time. These helium ions penetrate only a little way into the individual grains of this soil, but periodically meteorites have struck the lunar surface to churn the soil, mixing some of this helium-3 a little below the surface.

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Trade

"You legs may have a comparative advantage at running, but we arms have a competitive advantage at swinging hammers, so unless you accept that we're the dominant limbs and stop hogging the oxygen, that running advantage won't be around for long."

Apple’s Polishing Cloth Is Now Just $9

Chance Miller:

Not to be overshadowed by the new Mac mini and Mac Studio, Apple today has also released an updated version of its Polishing Cloth. In an age of everything getting more expensive, the new Polishing Cloth is cheaper than before at $9 (down from $19). [...]

Apple released the Polishing Cloth in October 2021 and sold out almost instantly. While it has become a meme, it is genuinely a good polishing cloth for your Apple gear.

Moore’s Law comes for everything eventually.

 ★ 

‘Surprise and Shine’ Apple Event: Wednesday 9 September

Zac Hall, 9to5Mac:

Apple has officially announced its next product event, where it will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro lineup and its first foldable iPhone. The event will take place on September 9 at 10 am, PT. The tagline reads “Surprise and shine,” and the invitation features a glowing Apple logo with a sun shining through.

Apple generally prefers Tuesdays, but on years when Labor Day falls in the second week of September, they move it to Wednesday.

 ★ 

Trump’s Idiotic Trade War Is a Bigger Political Opening Than You Think

As a general matter, people who write about or strategize about politics greatly overestimate our collective ability to shape how an election will play out, the extent to which clever ideas can pivot the course of an election in any new direction. We’re more small sailboats on a big ocean than some kind of latter-day Neptune actually changing the waves or the wind. But, all that said, Trump may have handed a unique card for Democrats to play against Republican candidates, especially those bordering Canada, which include key states like Michigan, Alaska, and Maine, as well as states with strong trade dependencies like Iowa and Ohio. This part requires little explanation. Heading into an ugly midterm cycle with one damaging and needless war underway, it boggles the mind that he thinks it’s a good idea to start a trade war with America’s second-largest trading partner. Trade wars raise prices; and the cost of living is the largest single issue in the election.

But there’s an additional dimension to the politics.

One of the Trump opposition’s consistent challenges through both his presidential terms has been making the case that Trump’s selfishness, corruption, incompetence and malevolence affects voters’ individual lives. One blindspot for the opposition during Trump’s first term, at least through February 2020, was that for many people, as crazy and terrible as Trump acted, if you just went about your life and didn’t pay attention to the news, none of it really mattered. Trump inherited a strong economy and then juiced it with free spending and tax cuts. Many people could just ignore it and go about their business. And of course that’s what a big cross-section of the population is always doing, especially those loosely committed voters who are most up for grabs in any election.

The dynamics are different here. Not unlike the case with the Iran War, most people not only oppose this trade war, they’re baffled by it — like why is this even happening? It’s all Trump’s erratic impulsive and grandiosity and aggression bundled together. And unlike the Reflecting Pool or the ballroom or corrupt prosecutions of people you may not know, this is actually going to affect you, and not in a good way. Trump’s pathetic threat to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America plays nicely into this. It drives home that this isn’t some arcane trade dispute that maybe you don’t understand. It’s clearly another of his ego-trip, dick-swinging gyres, only this time really clearly at your expense.

A lot of Canadians think we, as Americans, have turned against them or are attacking them. And they are totally justified in assuming that and being super angry about it since our country could stop this at any moment. And we’re not. But Trump has actually had pretty little success convincing Americans that Canada is some aggressive power harming or taking advantage of America.

As you can see in this poll, Trump has had a fair amount of success changing Republicans’ views of Canada. But even among self-identified Republicans, most of whom are off-limits even in a wave election, a fairly big majority still has a favorable opinion of Canada. Unsurprisingly, Democrats’ views are unchanged and couldn’t be much higher. Independents’ views are still upwards of North Korea levels of support. But even that 80% number is a little deceptive. Substantial slices of “independent voters” are actually firmly aligned with one party or another. In voting terms, they’re Republicans or Democrats. They are independents as a matter of political identity rather than voting behavior. Put this all together and what it amounts to is that outside consistent Republican voters, nobody buys any of this.

The political line of attack is pretty clear. Unlike so many other examples of chaotic and degenerate bullshit or egregious damage that shows up over time in indirect ways, this one is crystal clear: it’s all on Trump and something almost everyone feels in the here and now. You’re already struggling to make ends meet. Trump doesn’t care and isn’t doing anything about it. And all Trump will do is go create more chaos, do some stupid thing no one was asking for for his own kicks, making your situation worse.

As I said at the top, most voters will come to these conclusions on their own. And an incumbent party usually takes the hit for whatever goes wrong, whoever’s fault it was. But it’s important for the opposition party to help it along. And more specifically, Democrats need to frame these attacks not just around Trump but around Republican candidates who need to answer for it and for him since they support him 100% on anything and everything.

Dolly Parton, Rights Holder, Dead at 80

When some stars or legends die, they spur outpourings and commemorations that appear to transcend the mere mechanics and scaffolding of their fame. Dolly Parton was clearly one of those stars. For many reasons, with her this isn’t surprising. It was predictable and for very good and understandable reasons. But it still hits a certain way when you watch it unfold. It’s certainly not her greatest or hundredth greatest accolade. But I saw someone point out that in the hours after her death she was lauded on the social media feeds of the Democratic Socialists of America and Donald Trump’s — an emblem of her ability to transcend some of the most acidic divides in contemporary American society.

Music has always played a central role in my life. And I have an uncannily strong aural memory, despite having until quite recently virtually no technical knowledge about music theory at all — which tones are associated with which alphabet letters, chord progressions, etc. What I’ve studied pretty closely through my life is popular music history. And if you study the history of the production, composition and performance of music starting around the beginning of the 20th century, you know that one of the biggest throughlines separating the happy stories from the sad and tragic ones is rights and royalties and songwriting credits. Which will bring us back to Parton in a moment.

I’m always amazed at just how much money rights and royalties throw off over time. You can be a huge, huge pop star and if you don’t write the songs, you can end up with little or nothing a few years after the peak of your stardom. But writing the song is just the start of it. There’s a complex bundle of rights and powers associated with a composition. First there’s the moral right involved, the ability to say, ‘I wrote this song and you didn’t.’ Then there’s control over who gets to do what with the song. Then there are money streams which are traditionally and typically divided 50/50 into songwriting royalties and publishing royalties. Again, if you write songs and you hold onto most or all of these rights and, critically, if you write songs other people want to sing or record, it’s hard to overstate just how much money this can bring in over time. This is why Bob Dylan, within just a few years of his fame, was already a millionaire a few times over (a much bigger deal in the mid-’60s than now). So many other acts were covering his songs.

Parton, early in her career but really throughout, often indulged or leaned into the caricature of herself as a loud-looking, big-boobed, hillbilly girl. But she was a shrewd self-advocate and businesswoman from the very start. In 1966, at the age of 20, she set up her own music publishing company, something highly unusual for a country artist at the time, especially a female one. She didn’t have full ownership of the music publishing company at the start, though she gathered the remainder back over the next few years. That decision set the stage for roughly doubling the income she drew from her own songbook by holding both the 50% that went to the songwriter (Dolly Parton) and the 50% that went to music publisher (Dolly Parton).

Parton guarded those royalties consistently and aggressively. In one oft-told story, Elvis Presley, during his mid-’70s comeback, wanted to record “I Will Always Love You,” what turned out to be one of Parton’s signature songs and a #1 country hit for her in 1974. That was a big deal for Parton, still relatively early in her career. But at the last minute — apparently literally the night before the studio session — Presley’s notorious manager, Colonel Tom Parker, called Parton with a catch. It was their standard practice, according to Parker, that when Elvis recorded a song he got half the publishing rights. Not just half those rights and revenues on his recording, but half the publishing rights to the song itself in perpetuity. An anguished Parton refused, and that was the end of it. When Whitney Houston had a global mega-hit with the song in 1992 (many people, especially outside the U.S., have no idea it’s even Parton’s song), she had a massive windfall because of this close management of that bundle of rights. Published reports put her royalties on that recording, just during the ’90s, at over $10 million. That would be over $20 million today.

One of the consistent themes of all the obituaries and remembrances of Parton we’re reading today isn’t just her multifaceted talent but her bounteous and fairly low-profile philanthropy over many decades. This meticulous and far-sighted management of her songbook, which runs into thousands of songs, was the cornerstone of the fortune that made it possible.

POSIWID: The Purpose of a System Is What It Does

Wikipedia:

The purpose of a system is what it does (POSIWID) is a heuristic in systems thinking coined by the British management consultant Stafford Beer, who stated that there is “no point in claiming that the purpose of a system is to do what it constantly fails to do”. It is used in systems theory, and is generally invoked to counter the notion that the purpose of a system can or should be read from the intentions of those who design, operate, or promote it. When a system’s side effects or unintended consequences reveal that its behaviour is poorly understood, then the POSIWID perspective can balance political understandings of system behaviour with a more straightforwardly descriptive view.

I don’t recall seeing POSIWID before, but I love the concept. A friend sent this to me, with the quip that I forgot to include a link to it in my “What Is the Point of the DMA?” piece this week. Indeed, it encapsulates my arguments about the DMA specifically and the European Commission generally. The purpose of the DMA is what it does, not what you imagine it is intended to do.

In the same vein, I have been thinking too about the famous anecdote reported by Adam Lashinsky for Fortune back in 2011:

Steve Jobs doesn’t tolerate duds. Shortly after the launch event, he summoned the MobileMe team, gathering them in the Town Hall auditorium in Building 4 of Apple’s campus, the venue the company uses for intimate product unveilings for journalists. According to a participant in the meeting, Jobs walked in, clad in his trademark black mock turtleneck and blue jeans, clasped his hands together, and asked a simple question:

“Can anyone tell me what MobileMe is supposed to do?” Having received a satisfactory answer, he continued, “So why the fuck doesn’t it do that?”

You can argue all you want that the DMA is intended to give developers and users choice and freedom. My retort is “So why the fuck doesn’t it do that?” The DMA is what it does — and it isn’t that.

(Also, if you follow the link quoted above to Stafford Beer’s Wikipedia entry — man, put a hat on that guy and damned if he doesn’t look like Jim Dalrymple. It would be even more uncanny if his name had been Stafford Heineken.)

 ★ 

Daddy’s Girl

Using Danish registry data, we study how managers’ gender attitudes shape gender inequality in the workplace by exploiting the birth of a daughter – as opposed to a son – as a plausibly exogenous shock to male managers’ gender attitudes. Comparing within-firm changes in women’s labor outcomes depending on the gender of the manager’s newborn child, we find that women’s relative earnings and employment increase by 4.4% and 2.9% respectively following the birth of the manager’s first daughter. These effects are driven by an increase in managers’ propensity to substitute male hires with female hires that have comparable education, hours worked, and earnings. Consistent with this substitution channel, we do not detect any significant effect on firm performance. Because these effects emerge rapidly and persist over time, we can rule out the need for prolonged exposure to gender issues or for personal incentives tied to improving conditions for their own daughters as prerequisites for managers to promote gender equality within their firms.

That is by Maddalena Ronchi and Nina Smith, forthcoming in Review of Economic Studies.

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Wednesday assorted links

1. At least one in four NFL players, and possibly much higher, ends up with brain disease (NYT).  As I read the results, probably most of them do.

2. On the LLM flooding of governmental services.

3. Joe Walker podcast with Andrew Charlton on the future of AI in Australia.

4. The bread culture that is the German regulatory state.

5. Data on the placement of economics PhDs.

6. The Nvidia thing is now under dispute.  And here is a defense of the original.

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August 25, 2026

Trump started the morning on social media saying: “The United States is giving serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America in that we don’t expect to [be] doing much business with Ontario any longer.” On X, the account of the Republicans pushed the idea of renaming the lake.

In contrast to MAGA’s performative nonsense, Canadian officials announced today that on September 8 they will begin to impose tariffs of up to 50% on about 700 products worth about $20 billion in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on Canada. Those products include U.S. steel, aluminum, chain saws, appliances, processed cheese, and clams. Paul Vieira of the Wall Street Journal noted that the tariffs appear targeted toward plants in Republican-held congressional districts.

Canada will also invest about 7.5 billion in Canadian dollars ($5.4 billion U.S.) in Canadian firms and workers hit by the trade war.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s threat of yesterday that the U.S. intends to strangle Iran’s economy isn’t faring much better than Trump’s attempt to rename Lake Ontario.

As economist Paul Krugman pointed out in his newsletter today, China can supply much of what Iran needs and has incentive to do so as Trump’s “self-inflicted quagmire in Iran” saps U.S. strength and respect. Krugman warned that Bessent’s threat “reeks of desperation,” a scent China would surely smell.

Krugman concluded with a prediction: “I can safely predict that the Chinese will make sure that the Iranian regime survives, and that they will thoroughly enjoy watching Trump slowly twist in the wind over the Strait of Hormuz.”

Indeed, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian today rejected the administration’s call for isolating Iran economically. “Cooperation between China and Iran has always been conducted within the framework of international law and should not be interfered with or disrupted,” Lin said. “China has already stated many times that it firmly opposes illegal unilateral sanctions.… China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its own rights and interests.”

As Krugman pointed out, the Iran war has forced the U.S. to abandon many of its Middle East bases—that’s why the USS Lincoln couldn’t be resupplied—and it has little prospect of reclaiming them now that Iran has been emboldened to attack the troops there. MS NOW national security analyst Barry R. McCaffrey, a retired Army general, posted Saturday: “In my judgement, the US Armed Forces have probably permanently lost access to 15 Persian Gulf bases. Iran now poised to control access [to] the Gulf States. US will have to negotiate new access in western Saudi Arabia, Israel, southern Europe.”

On Sunday, in The Atlantic, Robert Kagan noted that the Iran war has reconfigured the Middle East. For years, Iran was on the ropes, with the U.S. dominating the region alongside countries aligned with the U.S., including Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Now Iran has withstood six months of attacks from the U.S. and Israel. Its survival has reconfigured the power structure of the region, with Iran emerging as the area’s dominant power as it has demonstrated its ability to damage the oil and gas infrastructure of its neighbors.

It is plain, Kagan wrote, that “Washington fears escalation more than Iran does,” limiting what the U.S. can do as Iran not only exercises the right to collect tolls on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz but also decides who can use the strait. That control, Kagan notes, gives Iran “leverage every day, over dozens of countries.” It can “reward friends, punish enemies, extract revenue, force the loosening of sanctions, and make governments think twice before opposing Iranian policies…without firing a shot.”

The policy of Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to bring a “warrior” ethos to the Pentagon by putting it “on offense, not just on defense” using “maximum lethality, not tepid legality,” and having “violent effect, not politically correct,” has given the U.S. a tremendous loss in Iran.

And a report today from Megan Rose and Hannah Allam of ProPublica suggests that officers in U.S. Central Command recognized the dangers of Hegseth’s approach to warfare. Rose and Allam report that when Hegseth polled top commanders about cutting the Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response program instituted after civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan hardened opposition to the U.S., they universally objected.

Current and former defense officials told the journalists that Hegseth apparently thought senior officers would agree with him that focusing on civilian security was “woke” and would hamper “maximum lethality.” Instead, they uniformly disagreed, warning that scaling back the effort to protect civilians would “result in decreased efficiency of U.S. lethal operations due to an increased risk of target misidentification and reduced battlespace awareness.” Hegseth gutted the program anyway, and U.S. strikes have killed hundreds of civilians. Now it appears the administration is considering rebuilding the program.

Social media this morning picked up that a U.S. Air Force transport aircraft that had taken off from Joint Base Andrews near Washington, D.C., landed in Moscow. Later reports said the U.S. official traveling to Moscow was the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), John Ratcliffe. There’s been lots of speculation about the purpose of his trip to Moscow, but so far it’s all guesses.

Journalist Greg Sargent notes that Trump’s trade war with Canada will hit the Midwest right before the midterms. Josh Turek, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate from Iowa and a leading voice for a new prairie populism that works for farmers, told Sargent, “It’s a really dangerous time to be a farmer in the Midwest.” “You talk to farmers, and they’ll tell you it’s one gut punch after another,” Turek said. Iowans tell him they feel betrayed.

Michigan’s Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, Abdul El-Sayed, said that “Trump is escalating a trade war with Canada for his own vanity” and that his Republican opponent, former representative Mike Rogers, is a “rubber stamp” for Trump’s plans.

Maine, too, will be hit by the trade war with Canada. Yesterday, Vice President J.D. Vance was in Maine campaigning for Senator Susan Collins, but while he praised her, she did not show up for the rally. Vance made it a point to call Collins “independent,” a descriptor that many former MAGA candidates in Maine are using in this election cycle.

Collin’s Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, was a logger on the Canada border before pursuing a career in politics, giving him an authentic voice as he explains the cost of a fight with Canada for Mainers.

NBC News national political reporter Sahil Kapur noted today that Ralph Alvarado, who is running for the U.S. House from Kentucky’s sixth District, which Trump won in 2024 by 15 points, has scrubbed his website of references to Trump and has changed his slogan from “America First Fighter” to “Independent Leadership.”

Still, Trump appears to think his power is unchallenged and, in the midst of the fires all around him, continues to be focused on his renovations to Washington, D.C. A report today from Jonathan Edwards in the Washington Post showed that ticket sales and fundraising for the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts plummeted after Trump’s name was added to it, even though the board insisted his takeover was a financial rescue.

Today Trump’s lawyers suggested that the administration might have to demolish the Kennedy Center if the courts don’t allow the board to renovate it over the next two years and add Trump’s name to the facade. After the renovations, it would read: “The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts Restored and Renovated by President Donald J. Trump.”

As Gary Grumbach and Dareh Gregorian of NBC News reported, Justice Department attorney Brantley T. Mayers wrote: “Without those efforts, the Center will deteriorate further into an unsafe, decrepit structure that will be required to be taken down, with a determination to follow on what to build on the site, such as a large outdoor amphitheater overlooking the Potomac River that has been proposed, by some, for many years.”

Trump’s threat to destroy the Kennedy Center unless he gets to do what he wants to it seems to be a metaphor for the United States: “Nice country you got there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.”

Notes:

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/canada-targets-u-s-metals-foods-motorcycles-in-retaliatory-tariff-package-f677222b?st=8fXMHf

https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/25/business/canada-us-tariffs-american-consumers

Paul Krugman
Losing the Iran War: The Economic Front
It won’t look like this…
Read more

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/8/25/china-says-will-safeguard-its-own-interests-as-us-expands-iran-sanctions

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/25/cia-director-ratcliffe-arrives-in-moscow-on-secret-visit-us-reports-claim

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/08/iran-middle-east-power/688374/

https://www.propublica.org/article/hegseth-civilian-harm-mitigation-response-trump-defense-department

https://newrepublic.com/article/214669/trump-canada-trade-war-backfiring

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-trumps-trade-war-with-canada-could-rattle-states-with-key-senate-races

https://www.ms.now/news/vance-susan-collins-trump-maine-senate

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/2026/08/25/kennedy-center-revenue-plunged-after-trumps-name-went-building/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-says-might-demolish-kennedy-center-court-blocks-r-rcna594350

Trump’s Truth:

statuses/41183

X:

Republicans/status/2092241418609713392

mccaffreyr3/status/2091313067200266407

sahilkapur/status/2092281557213925691

Bluesky:

atrupar.com/post/3ly4ignwtyd2b

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Politics Chat, August 25, 2026

Politics Chat, August 25, 2026

Untrustworthy

Data Centers and the Open Access Order

The US discussion over datacenters is depressing. Datacenters do not use a lot of water, they produce very useful outputs, they are not a blight on the landscape. All of this is obvious. But I don’t want to restate the obvious. What bothers me most about the discussion is that people seem to think this is or should be a collective decision. No.

We have a simple set of rules that everyone must follow. You buy land from someone willing to sell it. You contract for electricity. You hire workers who want the job. Your obligations to your local neighbors come from the same laws that govern everyone else. We do not ask what the land, electricity and labor is for. If you follow the rules, that is nobody’s business.

This is the distinction North, Wallis and Weingast make in Violence and Social Orders (paper here) between limited access orders or the natural state and open-access orders. For most of recorded history large-scale economic activity depended on access to political power. In the natural state, “people outside the coalition have only limited access to organizations, privileges, and valuable resources and activities.”  The dominant coalition controlled entry into valuable activities and created rents by granting privileges.

An open access order works through general criteria. Organizational formation is “open to everyone who meets a set of minimal and impersonal criteria.” In economic life, the transition entails “the ability to create economic organizations at will, open entry and competition in many markets.”

The key word is impersonal. The same conditions apply regardless of who wants to build or whether public officials admire the proposed use. The state is not necessarily laissez-faire but its role ends once you have complied with the impersonal rules.

Now look at how a data center actually gets built. Rezoning, special use permits, comprehensive plan amendments, a negotiated “community benefits agreement” of school donations, fiber, soccer fields, and payments in lieu of taxes, public comment and then more public comment. These are not general rules. They are terms of admission negotiated with whoever holds the veto. Calling them community benefits doesn’t change the structure. Access to economic activity has become something that must be bargained for, argued for in the collective sphere, and paid for–with success determined by rents and political access. The natural state returns.

(The subsidies, by the way. are the same error wearing the other hat. A sales tax exemption written for datacenters and a county moratorium aimed at datacenters both replace a general rule with a judgment about whether this industry deserves to exist. An open access order offers neither special favors nor special burdens. It offers a rule.)

Opponents often complain that communities deserve more of a say. No, they do not. You did not vote on the bakery and the baker did not vote on you. That is the deal.

Datacenters happen to be where this is most visible today. Their size and novelty make them easy targets for vilification and rent extraction. But the big issue is not datacenters. It is whether building depends on following impersonal rules or on securing permission case by case from those who control access. The natural state was the human default for ten thousand years. The open access order that displaced it is the foundation of our prosperity and our political strength, and it is younger and more fragile than we like to think.

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Axel Ockenfels, interviewed about market design

Here's a recent interview of Axel Ockenfels, about market design.

Interview Marc Kley

Porträt Axel Ockenfels Copyright Fabian Stürtz

1. Professor Ockenfels, your work focuses on the design of markets and incentives. How can founders leverage your scientific insights when developing their business models?

Every business model is, to some extent, an exercise in incentive and market design, whether founders are aware of it or not. Whoever builds a platform, a pricing scheme or an app decides who can trade with whom, what information they see, and what incentives they face. Market design research offers three lessons for founders. First, details matter: seemingly minor rules can make or break a market. I have seen many systems fail because of seemingly innocuous design mistakes. Second, behavior matters: people reciprocate, care about fairness, are loss averse, and are quickly overwhelmed by complexity. Third, testing matters: experiments are the wind tunnel of market design and the gold standard for finding out what works and what does not. 

... 

4. In your opinion, which major societal challenge could be solved more effectively if we designed markets, platforms, and incentives more intelligently?

Almost any. Take climate change. It is often framed as a moral problem, but at its core it is a cooperation problem: everyone benefits if emissions fall, yet each country, company and individual prefers others to bear the cost. A uniform carbon price would steer billions of everyday decisions toward climate protection without micromanaging any of them. Not less importantly, our research shows that carbon pricing facilitates international negotiations built on reciprocity, which can stabilize cooperation where unilateral pledges fail. A similar logic creates value elsewhere: kidney exchange programs save lives, well-designed electricity markets keep the energy transition affordable, and clever matching systems allocate school places more fairly. Wherever incentives are misaligned, better economic design can unlock large social value

 

Overreaching causal language in the social sciences

Across the social sciences, many studies use cross-sectional designs that reveal associations but are generally unable to support direct causal claims, yet authors of such articles may make or imply causal claims anyway. Here, to examine the prevalence of such ‘overreaching’ causal language, we analysed 194,631 cross-sectional articles using large language models. Over the period 1980–2024, an average of 46% of articles contained causal language in their titles or abstracts, where the annual rate has risen almost threefold since 2000 from 20% to 60%. To examine the effects of such language, we conducted a human-subjects experiment (N = 1, 105), finding that readers frequently indicate abstracts with this phrasing provide causal evidence but that methodological labels (β = −0.4, 95% confidence interval −0.56 to −0.19) and associational wording (β = −0.3, 95% confidence interval −0.43 to −0.07) reduce this tendency. Experiments with five LLMs revealed that model summaries of these articles (N = 100 each) can amplify causal overstatement, removing hedges and introducing causal claims where articles used strictly associational phrasing; however, prompting caution diminishes this pattern.

That is from a recent paper by Calvin Isch, Timothy Dörr, Neil Fasching, Grace JenningsDuncan J. Watts.  Note that Isch is on the job market this year, working with Tetlock and Watts.

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


408
ABNT20 KNHC 272302
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolly, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


831
ABPZ20 KNHC 272336
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Karina, located well south of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula, as well as newly formed Tropical Storm
Lowell, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lala, located several
hundred miles north of Kure Atoll.

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the
south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well south or southwest of the
Hawaiian Islands over the weekend or early next week. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, well offshore of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karina are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Karina are issued under WMO
header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lowell are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lowell are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Evans/Pierce


Emergent Ventures winners, 58th cohort

Jethro Elsden, London area, to study the regulatory structure of the UK using AI.

Paula Benedetti, Buenos Aires, marine biology work in Brazil.

Nyida Gyal, 17, northern Virginia, AI and data.

Gabe Sekeres, Cornell, what if an economist just lets AI run?,

Ollie Payne, NYC, Future Aesthetics Foundation.

Jacob Watson-Howland, London, podcast on science and progress.

Cameron Monroe, UC Santa Cruz, archaeology in Ghana.

Björn O. Öste, archaeology and Peru.

Oliver Pryce, Cambridge, mathematics, AI and a unified representation of geometry and physics.

Demetre Tsiklauri, Tblisi, 16, general career support, building a student network in Georgia.

Shannon Wong, Paris/Antarctica, general career support.

Lydia Farnham, London, matching donors and projects.

The post Emergent Ventures winners, 58th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

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A Changing World for Emperor Penguins

1989
2025
In a satellite image captured in 1989, faint brown guano stains are visible on a background of white fast ice near a cluster of icebergs. The stains are near the edge of an ice shelf to the south.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
In a similar image captured in 2025, brown guano stains are still visible along the ice shelf, though the locations of icebergs.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
In a satellite image captured in 1989, faint brown guano stains are visible on a background of white fast ice near a cluster of icebergs. The stains are near the edge of an ice shelf to the south.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
In a similar image captured in 2025, brown guano stains are still visible along the ice shelf, though the locations of icebergs.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
1989
2025
Landsat has observed evidence of emperor penguins living on Smyley Island in Antarctica as early as 1989. The TM (Thematic Mapper) on Landsat 4 captured this false-color image (left) of guano stains on fast ice on December 24, 1989. The OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 captured a similar scene on December 10, 2025 (right). The images combine observations of infrared, red, and green light to make it easier to distinguish the guano stains. NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison.

With their charming waddles, heat-conserving huddles, and tuxedo-like plumage, emperor penguins are among the world’s most recognizable animals. Recent satellite surveys estimate that hundreds of thousands of the flightless birds live in 66 colonies spread around Antarctica’s inaccessible, frozen coastlines. But those numbers could fall in the coming decades because emperor penguins rely on landfast (or fast) ice—a type of sea ice attached to the shoreline—to breed, raise chicks, and molt.

While Antarctic sea ice remained relatively stable between the late 1970s and 2015, it has been declining since 2016, and climate projections suggest that trend will continue. How landfast ice is faring remains poorly understood and is an active area of study. However, one study suggests that it has declined in West Antarctica and the Weddell Sea in recent decades even as it has trended upward in the Bellingshausen Sea and East Antarctica.  

Meanwhile, some models project that emperor penguins could disappear by 2100 due to their habitats becoming inhospitable. The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service listed emperor penguins as threatened in 2022, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature classified them as endangered in 2026.

After Antarctic sea ice cover hit a record low in 2022, British Antarctic Survey researchers reported “catastrophic” breeding failures among Bellingshausen Sea colonies. However, new research, based on decades of observations from NASA-USGS Landsat satellites, offers some hope, underscoring that many colonies have persisted for decades and that emperor penguins may be more flexible about where they breed than previously thought.

Except for a few well-studied colonies, scientists have known little about how long many emperor penguin colonies have existed, how their populations have changed, or how they have responded to past disruptions in landfast sea ice.

Three adult penguins with black-and-white plumage are surrounded by several younger penguins with fuzzy gray plumage.
Adult and juvenile emperor penguins congregate on sea ice in Antarctica.
Michael Van Woert, NOAA NESDIS, ORA

“There’s little baseline information for what’s ‘normal’ for most of these colonies,” said Michelle LaRue, a wildlife ecologist at the University of Canterbury. That’s made projecting future population levels a challenge.

Two new studies published in 2026 used decades of Landsat observations to start filling gaps in understanding. Landsat cannot resolve individual penguins, but researchers identify colonies from the guano stains that accumulate where thousands of birds congregate on the ice.

Using this technique, researchers at the University of Freiburg found that 18 colonies predate their initial identification by an average of 17 years. Because Landsat has imaged Antarctica continuously since the early 1980s, it provides one of the few systematic long-term records of remote penguin colonies.

Among the oldest colonies studied was the roughly 6,000-bird Smyley Island colony in the Bellingshausen Sea, which dates to at least 1989, two decades earlier than previously known. Other colonies that predated their earliest known presence by 20 or more years included those at Barrier Bay, Brownson, Luitpold Coast, Ragnhild, Smith, and Verdi Inlet.

Scientists have watched the Smyley Island colony closely in recent years because it is among the colonies that may have suffered a total breeding failure in 2022. Satellite images captured that year show the colony splitting up, with some penguins moving onto a large iceberg grounded near the coast.

Despite persistently low sea-ice conditions since then, the colony has continued to appear in satellite imagery, generally establishing itself near icebergs along the edge of the ice shelf. The image above on the right shows the colony in December 2025, the most recent month Landsat has observed the colony.

“We’re seeing a degree of resilience in the Smyley Island colony,” LaRue said. “They seem to be doing okay now, and we will continue to monitor them to learn more about their behaviors.” The colony’s persistence underscores that one bad breeding year—even a total failure—doesn’t mean the end of a colony. Blizzards and predators can lead to bad years with very low chick survival rates as well, she added. “It’s when we start to see frequent breeding failures year after year that the birds won’t be able to keep up, and it starts to be a problem for a colony.”

An image (left) shows a long trail of guano extending from rift ice northward to a larger guano stain on a nearby ice shelf in 2018. In 2023, brown guano stains are visible on fast ice much closer to open water, while there is no sign of the penguin colony on the ice shelf (right).
Landsat 8 captured an image of the SANAE colony with a guano trail leading from rift ice to the ice shelf on January 23, 2018 (left). On January 4, 2023, the birds had returned to their original fast ice area (right). The images combine observations of infrared, red, and green light to make it easier to distinguish the guano stains.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

A second study, led by Grant Macdonald, a remote sensing scientist at Durham University, found further evidence of behavioral flexibility. Macdonald and colleagues analyzed nearly 40 years of observations from Landsat, the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite, and other sources for three colonies disrupted by iceberg calving or early sea ice breakup. They found that penguins of the Mertz and SANAE colonies responded by temporarily shifting to nearby icebergs, embayments, or ice shelves before returning to their former breeding sites.

Landsat first imaged the SANAE colony in 1984 on fast ice in a sheltered bay in the Queen Maud Land region in East Antarctica. After a major calving event in 2011 exposed the fast ice to more punishing winds, the colony relocated to rift ice in an embayment 11 kilometers (7 miles) to the south. The move proved temporary. Part of the group moved to another nearby site, and part of it returned to the original breeding location in 2016.

Yet in the 2016–2017 breeding season, the returnees did something unexpected. Despite the presence of stable fast ice, they trekked onto the ice shelf and huddled and bred there. In the Landsat image above, a winding guano-stained trail traces the penguins’ route onto the ice shelf. By 2022, after roughly a decade of wandering and splitting between sites, the entire colony had returned to its original breeding ground on the fast ice, where it has bred each year since.

At the third colony the researchers studied, the Astrid colony on the Vigridisen Ice Shelf, the birds kept returning to their original breeding location even after a major calving event in 2006. That’s likely because some fast ice remained and nearby icebergs provided some shelter. The guano stains indicate that the colony did, however, sometimes spend time on a nearby ice shelf toward the end of the breeding season both before and after the calving event.

Indeed, moving and sometimes breeding on alternative surfaces such as ice shelves, icebergs, or rift ice may be “more common and feasible than previously thought,” Macdonald said, perhaps because some sites offer better shelter from wind. This willingness to move may represent a “useful adaptation” as ocean temperatures warm and sea ice declines, he added, though he cautioned that behavioral flexibility alone won’t necessarily offset the long-term effects of continued sea-ice loss.

“We have so much more to learn about emperor penguins,” added LaRue. “These colonies are so remote and difficult to access that satellites—especially government satellites with easily accessible data—are going to be absolutely invaluable to understanding what the future will bring for them.”

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Photo by Michael Van Woert (NOAA NESDIS, ORA). Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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Dolly Parton, RIP

The post Dolly Parton, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Colorful Aurora over Icenlandic Waterfall

‘How Europe Is Killing Makers and Micro-Entrepreneurs’

Alain Pannetrat, founder of Lectronz:

Lectronz is a marketplace for open-source hardware makers and DIY electronics. Most of our sellers are not factories or well-funded start-ups. They are engineers, independent designers, and hardware enthusiasts working from spare rooms, garages, and tiny workshops.

Some earn a living from their products. Some sell only a handful of boards each year. Others build ten units simply because they created something useful and want to share it with the community. Occasionally, one of those experiments grows into a real business. Every Arduino begins somewhere.

But the European Union’s new packaging rules now threaten to kill the world of makers and micro-entrepreneurs, putting jobs, livelihoods and an entire ecosystem of innovation at risk.

Pannetrat says these new regulations will require even one-person hobbyists to spend hundreds of euros per year (and file paperwork) for each country they ship to. The costs will far outstrip the money they make from selling a few dozen gadgets or circuit boards, and the hassles are probably worse than the costs. But these regulations are no big deal at all to big companies like Amazon — they only hurt smaller companies, and they’re effectively crushing to hobbyists.

A couple of years ago Philadelphia banned retailers from using plastic bags. It’s worked out great. More people bring reusable shopping bags with them, and if you need a bag from the store, you get paper bags that they charge you a nickel each for. A small price to encourage bag reuse, and the end result is no more plastic bags. Regulations can be very effective without adding any complexity or annoyance to daily life.

 ★ 

Dangerous Heat and Possible Flooding