Building a Soviet Nail Factory: how KPIs killed efficiency

In 2008, I landed my second job, in the network team at Orange Portails, the division behind the websites and search engine of the French telecom operator Orange. The place ran like clockwork: a comprehensive technical setup, a dedicated team for every part of the business, and room to focus on what I do best. A few years later, none of that mattered: thanks to an obsession with the numbers, we could no longer deliver new services on time.

Disclaimer

This is a story I like to tell to warn people about Goodhart’s law.1 As these events happened almost 15 years ago, my recollection is a bit fuzzy. I left in 2012.

The first years

During my first years, the department operated like a startup. Its cradle was the French company Echo. They built a search engine. France Télécom bought it and renamed it Voila. It was the most visited search engine in France in the early 2000s. France Télécom consolidated the portal activities into the Wanadoo Portails division, later renamed Orange Portails.

The technical environment was excellent. We had many internal tools:2 a ticket system, an RRD-based graphing tool, an IPAM, a reporting tool, and an SNMP-based alerting tool.3 We deployed our Linux servers with CFEngine. We installed systems and applications from internal Debian repositories. We documented everything in a private MediaWiki instance. Supervision was performed with an ancestor of Xymon. The network architecture was clean and scalable with little legacy. We onboarded new people in a day.

It was a nurturing environment for me. I developed several tools: lldpd, an 802.1AB implementation, Snimpy, a pythonic binding for Net-SNMP, Wiremaps, a layer-2 discovery tool with a time machine to know which device is connected where, Kitérő, a tool to simulate network conditions, QCSS-3, a controller for load-balancers, and ipoo, a service available through a Jabber chatbot and a Greasemonkey script to expose IP-related information. I added SNMP support for Keepalived and Quagga. I also started this blog, with articles like “Anycast DNS,” TLS-related articles like “TLS computational DoS mitigation,” SNMP-related articles like “Integration of Net-SNMP into an event loop,” Linux-related articles like “Tuning Linux IPv4 route cache,” and an article about VXLAN long before it was cool.

The collapse

When we needed new servers, the on-site team would take a set from the inventory, install our base Linux distribution on them, put them in the datacenter, and cable them to the top-of-the-rack switches. We opened a ticket describing the servers we needed, and one week later, our servers were available. 💫

Orange wanted to know if this team was performing well, so they asked for KPIs. They decided to use the number of tickets completed in a year. They asked to double this number. So instead of one ticket for a new service, we would open six tickets—one per server. By the end of the year, the KPIs had more than doubled.

Everybody saw it as a success for performance management. So, they asked to do the same for the next year. Now, we needed to open a ticket per server and per step. Again, the KPIs doubled. Behind the scenes, the tickets went to different people and were no longer handled in order. So, for the next year, it was decided to have meta-tickets and meetings to follow the progress of these tickets. Of course, all these extra steps pushed the KPI even higher.

This performance management method spread to the other teams.4 Everything became slower. Instead of a couple of weeks, a new service now took six months. We built a Soviet nail factory. But the KPIs were good, and we stopped caring.

Let me give you another example. We had to estimate the impact of each night operation. We weren’t half bad: we declared most operations “without any expected impact.” Most of the time, there was no impact. One time out of five, there was a 5-second impact. We were told to try harder to meet our expected impact. What did we do? We started declaring a 5-second expected impact. One day, we got a 30-second impact and were told we failed to match the expected impact. In the end, we declared most operations with a 10-minute expected impact, and we stopped caring: instead of carefully shifting traffic around, we allowed ourselves a 5-minute impact. And our KPIs were never better.

Graph showing the impact of night operations. Year after year, the impact
tolerance has been increased. In the final year, the expected impact is 10
minutes, and all operations remain under this threshold. However, the impacts
are much more significant than they were in the first
year.
An artist's rendering of the evolution of impacts over the years.

KPIs are not bad, but they are easy to break. Use them carefully: let the people doing the work help choose the metrics, and tie those metrics to the quality of the service—for example, with service level objectives. Otherwise, even dedicated people stop caring, game the system, and eventually quit. 📊


  1. Goodhart’s law often gets the credit, but Campbell’s law describes my experience even better: the more you lean on a number to make decisions, the faster people corrupt it. 

  2. At the time, SaaS was not really a thing. I remember we considered, with a couple of colleagues, selling Wiremaps as a SaaS, with homomorphic encryption for the database. But who would outsource their observability stack? 

  3. Snalert was a metacircular alerting tool in Perl. It was able to poll a very large number of SNMP targets in a short timespan. All our monitoring was SNMP-based, including system monitoring. 

  4. My team also managed the rules of many Linux-based firewalls. To increase our KPIs, we used the same method: rather than accepting one ticket with a flow matrix, we requested one ticket per flow. 

Educational arbitrage?

Is it really all about the networking? Some people think so, and they are taking action:

Justin Helman didn’t get his dream acceptance from the University of Florida. But that isn’t stopping him from pursuing the classic college experience there.

The recent high-school graduate from Park Ridge, N.J., is set to move into a private apartment right by campus. He is enrolling in a UF online program for the first few semesters and paying an extra fee package to access services like the campus gym and student-section football-game tickets. He plans to study at the library, join clubs and might rush a fraternity.

“I’m going to get almost the entire same experience, and the only thing I’m really missing is going into class and dorming,” he said. “To me, it was just almost a no-brainer.”

More students like Helman are discovering there is another way into their dream schools.

Students who don’t get into major public flagships the traditional way are still participating in the social life of these campuses. The small-but-mighty group is moving to college towns, enrolling in online programs or nearby community colleges, living in private housing, joining Greek life, and attending game-day tailgates.

And it seems the arbitrage runs both ways:

The approach is sanctioned by the universities, which are expanding alternative-enrollment programs. “It’s a way to get what you want if the traditional, standard way doesn’t work,” said Beth Kraemer, a consultant for In College Consulting, who observed an uptick in this trend.

The programs can be a savvy way for universities to protect their rankings and generate revenue, said Adam Nguyen, founder of admissions-consulting firm Ivy Link. These are often students who narrowly missed the admissions cutoff.

Here is more from the WSJ, via Adam B.

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What’s the Best Way to Monetize Space Energy?

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Sustained maneuver has a propulsion problem

A gridded ion thruster at NASA’s Glenn Research Center that was used on NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART). Credit: NASA

For years, space architecture was treated mostly as a question of placement: where to put a spacecraft, and how reliably it could hold position. That framing is now too narrow. […]

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AI nationalism, Europe included

Most of my Free Press column deals with Mythos, but here are some remarks on Europe:

There is yet another huge problem behind all these first-order problems. Let us say, for instance, that France’s Mistral AI develops very nicely and serves as an EU counterpart of Anthropic and OpenAI. Well, then the other European countries will become highly dependent on the French. That may seem okay today, but it will be much less fun for the Germans if the French really do have all that extra power and leverage.

As for the French themselves, they would be highly dependent on a private company. France may end up with one such company, but it is unlikely to have three of them. So Mistral will in turn have high leverage over France, French politics, and French foreign policy. Let us hope they are up to that. The simple point is that being influenced by someone in your home country, even if it sounds more appealing rhetorically, is not always better than being pushed around by foreigners. Sometimes the foreigners are less oppressive and intrusive, if only because they care less about you.

Worth a ponder.  I am hearing good things about the new Mistral model, so these questions may become relevant sooner than I had thought when writing this.

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Gilat to buy Comtech satcoms business six years after failed merger

Gilat VSAT - Optus SC 4

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Space Force orders two more GPS satellites from Lockheed Martin for $514 million

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Nebraska’s Wide, Rolling Domain

The landscape in northwestern Nebraska has a rippled appearance, with tan parallel ridges running from left to right and green areas and small lakes filling the low-lying spaces in between.
The Nebraska Sandhills stretch across the north-central part of the state in this image acquired on August 19, 2025, with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Editor’s Note: Today’s story is the answer to the June Puzzler.

The undulating landscape of north-central Nebraska may be easy to overlook among the iconic dune fields of the world. Far from any coast or desert, the Nebraska Sandhills—comprising the Western Hemisphere’s largest system of sand dunes—bring their own brand of beauty and value. Grasslands blanket the rolling hills, providing grazing grounds for livestock, while lakes and wetlands dot the landscape, supporting diverse plant and animal life.

Much of the sand forming the hills originated in the Rocky Mountains. Rivers carried the eroded material down from the mountains and deposited it across the Great Plains during the Pleistocene. In times of drought, winds blowing predominantly from the north or south lofted sand out of dried riverbeds, gradually building and shaping dunes. About 3,500 years ago, grassland vegetation stabilized the features. Today, the rippled pattern spans about 20,000 square miles (52,000 square kilometers), about one-quarter of the state of Nebraska.

A series of tan parallel ridges runs from left to right, with green areas and small lakes filling the low-lying spaces in between.
Some of the largest, grassland-covered dunes in the Nebraska Sandhills are found in the northwestern part of the region, shown in this image acquired on August 19, 2025, with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Some of the largest dunes occur in and around the area shown in the detailed image above, near the northern edge of the Sandhills region. These transverse dunes stand as high as 400 feet (120 meters) and extend for several miles. Their northern slopes are gentler than their southern slopes, reflecting the dominant influence of northerly winds. In other areas, dunes are more symmetric, suggesting that winds blew with nearly equal strength from the north and south, alternating with the seasons.  

The grasslands that now cover the hills constitute pastureland for grazing livestock. Ranching expanded significantly in the area after passage of the Kinkaid Act in 1904, which allotted 640-acre parcels of land to ranchers who would settle it. Today, far more cattle than humans occupy the region, and half of Nebraska’s nearly 23 million acres of rangeland and pastureland are in the Sandhills. Some ranchers graze their cattle in patterns meant to approximate the large bison herds that once roamed the land.

Small, irregularly shaped lakes and marshy areas are interspersed among tan hills.
Lakes and wetlands fill the valleys between dunes in Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, shown in this image acquired on August 19, 2025, with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Though much of the land in the Sandhills is privately owned, some is set aside in protected public lands. One of these areas, Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge on the southwestern edge of the Sandhills region, is shown above. Wetlands, including shallow lakes, marshes, and wet meadows, fill some of the valleys between the dunes. The land here is sponge-like, with precipitation seeping down through the soil and recharging groundwater instead of flowing off through stream channels.

Located along the Central Flyway, the refuge is a haven for migratory birds, and dozens of species of waterfowl, marsh birds, and shorebirds utilize the area. Among other wildlife, several types of turtles thrive in the ponds and prairies. Wetlands across the Sandhills support rare species such as the whooping crane, western prairie fringed orchid, and Topeka shiner.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

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*Disclosure Day* (doubt if there are net spoilers in this post)

Perhaps rewatching The Omen is better prep for this movie than thinking about UFOs?  In this regard Disclosure Day is somewhat more interesting than I had been expecting.

Peter Thiel, Ross Douthat, telephone!

And yet I have plenty of quibbles.  It was a little too long.  The acting is entirely serviceable, but none of the characters are excellent or memorable.  The portraits of America are below the level of charm and insight we have come to expect from Spielberg.  And any time a character makes “a speech” it is pretty mediocre.

Cinematic influences are numerous, starting with E.T. and Close Encounters of course.  Not to mention Sugarland Express.  I was surprised to see the references to The Magic Flute, including the Bergman cinematic version.  Perhaps Spielberg had Jacob’s Ladder in mind as well?

The Freudian interpretation of the film I will not articulate, but it surfaces near the end and never quite goes away.

But who here was the Antichrist anyway?  That is up for grabs.

I had no problem sitting through the movie and enjoying it, but the problem of excess hodgepodge worsens as the exposition continues.  So I will grade this one as misunderstood, but nonetheless no better than an interesting failure.

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Will China, Inc. be zombified?

Modified from a photo by RJD via Wikimedia Commons

The photo above is not from China; it’s from Japan. In the 1970s, Daiei was Japan’s top retailer. But after Japan’s asset bubble burst around 1990, it became Japan’s most famous “zombie” company — staggering along unprofitably, kept afloat by a constant stream of below-market-rate loans from UFJ Bank and other big Japanese banks. Eventually the company was acquired by Aeon, a more successful retailer, and its once-storied brand is slated to be retired for good in the next few years.

I tend to be very skeptical of comparisons between post-1990 Japan and post-2021 China, because there are just so many differences between the two economies (and between the global economic environments at the time). Their industrial policies are different, their trading relationships are different, their bubbles and busts happened for very different reasons, and so on. But in the case of “zombie” companies, there may be some important parallels.

What’s important about Daiei is not how it failed, but why it didn’t fail much sooner. Caballero, Hoshi, and Kashyap wrote a paper in 2008 arguing that “zombie” companies like Daiei held the Japanese economy back during the 1990s (and, in some cases, even beyond the 1990s).

The basic story is that after 1990, the Japanese economy slowed down, and lots of companies that used to be profitable — especially in the construction, retail, and trading sectors — were no longer profitable. These companies owed a lot of money to banks. If they stopped being able to pay back their loans, the banks would be forced to recognize bad debt on their books. This would get them in trouble with regulators (because of capital requirements), and it would also get them in trouble with the Japanese public.

So what the banks did was to lend even more money to the failing companies that already owed them a lot of money, at very cheap interest rates. The new loans were used to pay back the old loans, and the new loans would be classified on the bank’s books as “good” debt. This process — known as “evergreening” — kept banks from ever having to acknowledge their losses:

Peek and Rosengren (2005) document this empirically as well.

Evergreening kept a bunch of companies afloat — like Daiei — that had utterly broken business models. Theoretically, the companies could have eventually pivoted their business models and recovered, or Japan’s economy could have started booming again, etc. In practice, this never happened.

Caballero, Hoshi, and Kashyap argue that evergreening was very bad for the Japanese economy, because it hoovered up scarce resources that better companies could have used to grow. With all of those crappy loans clogging up their books, Japanese banks couldn’t lend to healthier companies. With big zombies like Daiei still able to employ large amounts of Japan’s best managers, young scrappy upstarts were deprived of talent. The authors argue that keeping all of this labor and capital locked up inside doomed companies contributed significantly to Japan’s long productivity stagnation.

Why did the Japanese government allow this to happen? Preserving employment at the zombie companies was probably a big part of it. Japan had a strong tradition of job security at that point in time, and to throw so many people out of work — even if they could have gotten new jobs eventually — would have been seen as cruel and unfair. Social unrest was a possibility. Bank bailouts may also have been deeply politically unpopular. In any case, whatever the reason, throughout the 1990s the government supported banks with various capital injections and regulatory forbearance, without forcing banks to cut off the zombies.

Anyway, that’s Japan. The question is whether something like this will happen in China.

China’s experience with its real estate bubble and bust doesn’t exactly parallel Japan’s, but there are some broad similarities. Since 2021, there has been a broad economic slowdown (probably more severe than the official numbers suggest), and a long-lasting chill in real-estate-related industries. This has predictably led to a rise in the number of loss-making companies:

You’ll notice on this chart that the share of non-performing loans has actually gone down since 2021, even as fewer companies are turning a profit. That suggests that lots of Chinese companies are being kept on life support by cheap bank loans. Here’s the Rhodium Group:

Some concrete data points suggest that China’s evergreening of debt is more widespread than is commonly the case in most market economies. The ratio of banks’ reported non-performing loans has decreased over the past years, while the share of loss-making enterprises increased…This would indicate Chinese banks have been sitting on large volumes of NPLs that have not yet been fully recognized. This is an open secret: The National Audit Office recently claimed in an annual audit report to the NPC that 16 of 43 audited banks last year had NPL levels that were double the officially reported figure…

Loan rollovers are a pervasive phenomenon in China…[T]he financial system…served as a shock absorber, channeling resources to enterprises facing losses to maintain output and prevent the defaults and bankruptcies that occurred in market economies.

Another Rhodium report finds that the proportion of loans made below benchmark rates has risen significantly since 2021, even though benchmark rates are lower than they were back then:

And the Dallas Fed has documented how more and more Chinese companies, especially in the real estate sector, aren’t making enough money to pay the interest on their loans:

Source: Dallas Fed

All this — falling official NPLs, much more below-market lending, companies unable to pay their interest expenses, widespread suspicion that many of the companies whose loans are “performing” will never be able to repay those loans — matches the general pattern that Hoshi and Kashyap (2000) documented in post-bubble Japan. Banks have taken a bunch of losses, but have refused to recognize those losses, using a flood of cheap debt to keep their borrowers afloat.

A bunch of people have warned about this. Here’s Rhodium:

Because of the political incentives shaping China’s financial system, banks in China tend to extend or roll over debt to poorly performing or loss-making companies. This can have some of the same effects as a subsidy, by removing incentives for companies to stay profitable and isolating them from market forces that would otherwise lead to their restructuring or bankruptcy….Evergreening of credit, therefore, allows firms to…[reduce] domestic and global prices to unprofitable levels[.]

And here’s the Dallas Fed:

There is mounting evidence of “zombie lending” in China, banks rolling over bad loans to unprofitable firms and allowing the status quo to continue rather than recognize losses.

And here’s a Business Times story about how China’s government has allowed and even encouraged zombification, much as Japan did in the 1990s:

It’s impossible to quantify the true extent of the [bad debt] problem, though most economists say the ratio of bad loans is significantly higher than the 1.5 per cent official rate…One analyst at Absolute Strategy Research in London pegs it at about 10 per cent…Others say it could be double that amount…

While the [banks’] leniency [toward borrowers], largely condoned by regulators in Beijing, has helped maintain financial stability over the past few years, it also means the banking system is recycling capital into unproductive companies rather than spurring real growth in healthy firms…

[Government] officials have moved to bolster the nation’s six biggest banks with more than US$100 billion in fresh capital…[R]ather than cracking down on deadbeat borrowers, China’s banks are encouraged to cut them some slack. Regulators have for years urged the big banks to keep their reported bad loan ratio under 2 per cent, according to sources familiar with the guidance…As a result, banks routinely roll over maturing loans, extend repayment periods, or allow interest to be capitalised to avoid triggering NPL recognition.

Now you might be tempted to think — and I’ve seen a few people argue — that this only matters in a market economy. In a market economy, undercapitalized banks matter because banks have to succeed or fail on their own. In a state-directed economy like China’s, the theory goes, debt on the banks’ books might as well be on the government’s books.1 Banks can keep lending no matter how much bad debt they have, because the only entity that could punish them — the Chinese government — wants them to do so.

But while government control might avert a financial crisis, it doesn’t automatically solve the zombie problem, or make the comparison with Japan inappropriate.

First of all, it would be a mistake to see Japan’s government in the 1990s as operating at arm’s length from Japanese banks. It most certainly did not; in fact, it acted to support the banks that were supporting the zombies. The government bailed out the banks, deliberately turned a blind eye to the zombie problem, and encouraged banks to keep on lending to healthier companies despite the unrecognized bad loans on their books. That’s not too different from what China’s government seems to have done in response to the real estate bust, at least initially.

But simply having the government urge (or order) banks to keep lending didn’t solve the zombie problem in Japan, and it won’t solve it in China either. Even if the zombie companies don’t end up competing with healthier companies for capital, they compete with them for other resources. They compete for labor — workers who could be working at young, growing, healthy companies are instead being paid to continue to work for unproductive companies that are just spinning their wheels. They also compete for raw materials, for land, for energy, and so on.

These resources are not in infinite supply, even in China. As long as unproductive zombie companies are hiring workers, hoovering up metals and chemicals and watts of electricity, and taking up prime real estate, they’re holding back the rest of the economy. This doesn’t just manifest as higher costs for healthy companies — it also shows up as increased competition. In 1990s Japan, if a new retailer wanted to enter the scene, it had to compete with Daiei, the unproductive behemoth that was essentially being paid by banks to produce below cost. The same will be true in China.

In fact, this may be a reason for the “involution” that Chinese companies are experiencing. In the wake of the real estate bust, China’s government directed banks to lend to manufacturing companies instead of to real estate-related companies. They did this (though some of the loans ended up sneaking back into the real estate sector). In fact, a large percent of the “subsidies” that China dishes out to its manufacturing companies is through below-market-rate loans.

Some of these manufacturing companies will be successful and efficient — indeed, many already have been. But others are unproductive and inefficient. Instead of letting these die, China’s banks may keep them on as zombies as well, paying them to compete with China’s healthier companies. Here’s Alicia Garcia-Herrero from back in March:

In many sectors, including…electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries, and other green technologies…Chinese firms…keep selling at rock-bottom levels, sometimes below what it costs to produce, just to hold onto market share. A growing number of these companies cannot earn enough revenue to even service their debt…These “zombie” companies survive only because banks roll over loans and local governments provide subsidies to avoid job losses and keep tax revenues flowing…In newer, high-priority sectors like green tech, the share of zombie companies has hit 30 percent of total listed companies…

Without real productivity advances, [zombies] still join the price-slashing frenzy to stay in the game thanks to external support from banks or local governments. They cut prices aggressively…The outcome is predictable: collapsing profit margins across the board, even for the better companies, whose productivity is increasing.

When we Westerners think about the effect of Chinese zombification, we often think about the flood of cheap exports threatening to deindustrialize Europe and other regions. But while that export dominance might seem like a victory to China’s mercantilist leaders, it’s a double-edged sword, because zombification reduces productivity at home. In the long run, lower productivity hurts growth, despite the temporary bump from exports.

In other words, China’s fusion between the financial system and the state may have made zombification worse, not better. The Chinese state is not a ruthlessly efficient allocator of capital; it has sociopolitical goals just like any other state, and it fears the unrest that could result from widespread corporate failure and unemployment. Yes, it can tell banks to lend to manufacturers instead of property developers, but that just ends up adding more zombies to the horde.

And at some point, even state-owned and state-directed banks probably do care about profitability. Yes, the government can bail out any bank at will, but if you’re the bank executive or manager who dished out the bad loans and made a bailout necessary, your career might be over. This might be why corporate loans have started to fall slightly from the torrid pace of 2023-24:

Ultimately, when people write the story of China’s economy in the 2020s, zombification could end up being more fundamental to that story than exports. The parallels with Japan are not always real, but they’re real in this case — and so far, China’s government seems to be walking into a similar trap.

Update: In the comments, Jack Lowenstein asks a very important question: So what? Even if zombification proceeds in China, what are the downsides from the point of the Chinese government? He writes:

I think the critical difference between Japan’s “extend and pretend” policies and China’s is the geopolitical element.

Japan feared domestic social and political disruption - and was heavily influenced by “free market” vested interests. There was also a degree of denial by MOF and METI that the gogo years of the post war period up to the mid 1980s were really over.

The CCP and the PRC however are driven by the deliberate aim of de industrialization of critical parts of the OECD supply chain. Loans and other support to the companies that will deliver this outcome are not going to stop for economic reasons.

Sadly policy makers in most of the countries suffering these effects are ideologically unwilling to enact anti-dumping and other defenses to respond. So zombification will not stop in China. Yes the population of the PRC will pay a price. But since when did the CCP care about that?

This is a very important question, and I should have probably gone into that more in the post. Here was my response to Jack in the comments:

I think some of these are real differences, but perhaps not all of them.

“Japan feared domestic social and political disruption” <-- I actually don’t think this is a big difference. China is worried about social and political disruption as well -- just look at how fast Xi ended Zero Covid after some small scattered protests. The old social compact in China was “growth in exchange for political quiescence”. But with rapid growth now over, that social compact is gone, so the possibility for unrest is definitely there.

“There was also a degree of denial by MOF and METI that the gogo years of the post war period up to the mid 1980s were really over.” <-- I’m not sure this is different either. China has been overstating its growth since the bubble burst in 2021 (https://rhg.com/research/chinas-economy-rightsizing-2025-looking-ahead-to-2026/). This is often a tool the government uses to “smooth” growth between good and bad years (https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20150074), suggesting that they think fast growth might come back.

“The CCP and the PRC however are driven by the deliberate aim of de industrialization of critical parts of the OECD supply chain. Loans and other support to the companies that will deliver this outcome are not going to stop for economic reasons.” <-- This is true, and I think this is an argument FOR zombification. Unproductive, unprofitable companies that fill supply chain gaps will continue to be supported with evergreened loans.

So the question becomes: What are the downsides of zombification from the regime’s perspective? That’s a topic I should have considered more. One answer is “social unrest” -- if slow growth makes the repressiveness of China’s regime less tolerable, then we could see popular anger at the industrial-policy regime. Remember that Japan was a very free society, where people could pivot from the pursuit of money to the pursuit of lifestyle and art and leisure. That’s not necessarily true in China.

Another possibility is that eventually China becomes more like the USSR. The USSR was famously unproductive, because it insisted on onshoring its entire supply chain. Right now, China looks hyper-competitive in a bunch of high-tech industries, but if zombies suck up more and more labor and other resources (including compute), that competitiveness could narrow over time.

Finally, there are fiscal dangers (https://rhg.com/research/chinas-financial-and-fiscal-decay/). When Europeans buy cheap Chinese EVs, part of the consumer surplus they receive comes out of the pockets of Chinese taxpayers and bondholders. Japan’s zombification caused it to run up an enormous amount of debt, which it was able to carry safely only thanks to A) persistently low demand and low natural interest rates, and B) the government’s ability to buy overseas assets that performed extremely well (https://www.ft.com/content/f7d3f20c-b303-4f6c-b4a0-8ee8906ae155). Now that the first of those has gone away, Japan’s government debt IS becoming a problem, with a plunging exchange rate and creeping inflation.

So while China’s government can get away with “damn the economics, full speed ahead” for a while, eventually I think something breaks...


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And since that debt is owed almost entirely domestically, the theory says that the debt doesn’t really matter in a macroeconomic sense; it’s just some Chinese people owing money to other Chinese people.

June 14, 2026

On June 14, 1775, the Second Continental Congress resolved “[t]hat six companies of expert riflemen, be immediately raised in Pennsylvania, two in Maryland, and two in Virginia; that each company consist of a captain, three lieutenants, four serjeants, four corporals, a drummer or trumpeter, and sixty-eight privates…[and that] each company, as soon as completed, shall march and join the army near Boston, to be there employed as light infantry, under the command of the chief Officer in that army.”

And thus Congress established the Continental Army.

The First Continental Congress, which met in 1774, refused to establish a standing army, afraid that a bad government could use an army against its people. The Congress met in response to the British Parliament’s closing of the port of Boston and imposition of martial law there, but its members hoped they could repair their relationship with King George III and simply sent entreaties to the king to end what were known as the “Intolerable Acts.”

The Battles of Lexington and Concord in 1775 changed the equation. On April 19, British soldiers opened fire on colonists just as Patriot leaders feared they might. In the aftermath of that deadly day, about 15,000 untrained Massachusetts militiamen converged on Boston and laid siege to the town, where they bottled up about 6,500 British Regulars.

The Battles of Lexington and Concord made it clear the British government endangered American liberties. The Second Continental Congress met in Independence Hall in Philadelphia on May 10, 1775, to address the crisis in Boston. The delegates overcame their suspicions of a standing army to conclude they must bring the various state militias into a continental organization to stand against King George III.

With the establishment of the Continental Army, a British officer, General Charles Lee, resigned his commission in the British Army and published a public letter explaining that the king’s overreach had turned him away from service in His Majesty’s army and toward the Patriots:

“[W]henever it shall please his Majesty to call me forth to any honourable service against the natural hereditary enemies of our country, or in defence of his just rights and dignity, no man will obey the righteous summons with more zeal and alacrity than myself,” he wrote, “but the present measures seem to me so absolutely subversive of the rights and liberties of every individual subject, so destructive to the whole empire at large, and ultimately so ruinous to his Majesty’s own person, dignity and family, that I think myself obliged in conscience as a Citizen, Englishman, and Soldier of a free state, to exert my utmost to defeat them.”

After they established a Continental Army, the next thing Congress members did was to name a French and Indian War veteran, Virginia planter George Washington, commander-in-chief. To Washington fell the challenge of establishing an army to defend the nation without creating a military a tyrant could use to repress the people.

It was not an easy project. The Continental Army was made up of volunteers who were loyal primarily to the officers they had chosen, and because Congress still feared a standing army, their enlistments initially were short. Different units trained with different field manuals, making it hard to turn them into a unified fighting force. Women came to the camps with their men, often bringing their children. The women worked for the half-rations the government provided, washing, cooking, hauling water, and tending the wounded.

After an initial bout of enthusiasm at the start of the war, men stopped enlisting, and in 1777 Congress increased the times of enlistment to three years or “for the duration” of the conflict. That meant that the men in the army were more often poor than wealthy, enlisting for the bounties offered, and Congress found it easy to overlook those 12,000 people encamped about eighteen miles to the northwest of Philadelphia in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, for six months in the hard winter of 1777–1778. The Congress had no way to compel the states to provide money, food, or supplies for the army, and the army almost fell apart for lack of support.

Supply chains broke as the British captured food or it spoiled in transit to the soldiers, and wartime inflation meant Congress did not appropriate enough money for food. Hunger and disease stalked the camp, but even worse was the lack of clothing. More than 1,000 soldiers died, and about eight or ten deserted every day. Washington warned the president of the Continental Congress that the men were close to mutiny, even as a group of army officers were working with congressmen to replace Washington, complaining about how he was prosecuting the war.

By February 1778 a delegation from the Continental Congress had visited Valley Forge and, understanding that the lack of supplies made the army, and thus the country, truly vulnerable, set out to reform the supply department. Then a newly arrived Prussian officer, Baron Friedrich von Steuben, drilled the soldiers into unity and better morale. And then, in May, the soldiers learned that France had signed a treaty with the American states in February, lending money, matériel, and men to the cause of American independence. The army survived.

By the end of 1778, the main theater of the war had shifted to the South, where British officers hoped to recruit Loyalists to their side. Instead, guerrilla bands helped General Nathanael Greene bait the British into a war of endurance that finally ended on October 19, 1781, at the Battle of Yorktown in Virginia, where British general Charles Cornwallis surrendered to General Washington and French commander Jean-Baptiste-Donatien de Vimeur, Comte de Rochambeau.

The Continental Army had defeated the army of the king and established a nation based on the principle that all men were created equal and had a right to have a say in the government under which they lived.

In September 1783, negotiators concluded the Treaty of Paris that formally ended the war, and Congress discharged most of the troops still in service. In his November 2 farewell address to his men, Washington noted that their victory against such a formidable power was “little short of a standing Miracle.” “[W]ho has before seen a disciplined Army formed at once from such raw materials?” Washington wrote. “Who that was not a witness could imagine, that the most violent local prejudices would cease so soon, and that Men who came from the different parts of the Continent, strongly disposed by the habits of education, to despise and quarrel with each other, would instantly become but one patriotic band of Brothers?”

With the army disbanded, General Washington himself stepped away from military leadership. On December 23, Washington addressed Congress, saying: “Having now finished the work assigned me, I retire from the great theatre of action, and bidding an affectionate farewell to this august body, under whose orders I have so long acted, I here offer my commission, and take my leave of all the employments of public life.”

In 1817, given the choice of subjects to paint for the Rotunda in the U.S. Capitol, being rebuilt after the British had burned it during the War of 1812, fine artist John Trumbull picked the moment of Washington’s resignation from the army. As he discussed the project with President James Madison, Trumbull told the president: “I have thought that one of the highest moral lessons ever given to the world, was that presented by the conduct of the commander-in-chief, in resigning his power and commission as he did, when the army, perhaps, would have been unanimously with him, and few of the people disposed to resist his retaining the power which he had used with such happy success, and such irreproachable moderation.”

Madison agreed, and the painting of a man voluntarily walking away from the leadership of a powerful army rather than becoming a dictator hangs today in the Capitol Rotunda.

Notes:

https://americanfounding.org/entries/second-continental-congress-june-14-1775/

https://www.britannica.com/event/Siege-of-Boston

https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/women-of-the-army.htm

https://www.nps.gov/vafo/learn/historyculture/valley-forge-history-and-significance.htm

Charles Royster, A Revolutionary People at War (University of North Carolina Press, 1979), pp. 190–245.

https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Washington/99-01-02-12012

https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/resignation-of-military-commission#9

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1776-1783/continental-congress

https://www.battlefields.org/learn/primary-sources/declaration-and-resolves-first-continental-congress

John Trumbull, Autobiography, Reminiscences and Letters of J. Trumbull, from 1756 to 1841, p. 263, at https://archive.org/details/autobiographyre01trumgoog/page/262/mode/2up

Bluesky:

kawulf.bsky.social/post/3lri6vixjm22a

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AI demands more engineering discipline. Not less

A few days back I wrote a piece called “AI enthusiasts are in a race against time, AI skeptics are in a race against entropy.”

I have notes on a whole pile of AI-related topics that I’d like to cover in depth: AI mandates, communication norms, code review, AI art, and more. Unfortunately, I got too many interesting responses to my last piece, and now I have to address those before I can move on to other topics. 😉

There were two types of interesting responses: the first on the technical merits, the second on ethical grounds. I will respond to each of these separately. Let’s take the technical side first, because it’s easier.

Somehow, a subset of readers came away believing I was telling everyone to ditch code review and push their shittiest code straight into production without reading it, right now, tout suite.1

That is not what I am doing. That is not what I think you should do. But I did not pick that example at random, and I will tell you why.

In 2025, the question was whether AI could ever generate “good” code

It’s easy to forget, but for most of 2025, the idea that AI-generated code was slop and might always be slop was not only a reasonable position to hold, it was the default, mainstream position.2

That question was answered decisively last November. Ever since Opus 4.5 came out, AI has been able to generate code that is approximately as good as that of the median software engineer, at least for common patterns, and much faster and more cheaply. I came out of a book hole and realized this in January, and over the first few months of 2026, it seemed like everyone around me was having a similar realization.

But many saw it coming much sooner.

The popular narrative holds that Opus 4.5 was what changed. But Opus 4.5 was more like the tipping point. Agentic harnesses (the code that wraps the LLM in a loop with tools) became a real thing in mid 2025, with precursors building back to late 2024. Tool use, function calling, MCPs…all of this wave was building over the course of 2025, and crested into real general purpose usability at the end of the year.

That’s what the enthusiasts were trying to tell us last year. Not only “this is coming”, but “this is coming faster than you think.”

As it turns out, they were right.

It was reasonable to be skeptical the first time

As you may know, I come from the reliability side of the house. The compliment I will pay to myself and my people is that we do not struggle to adapt to new realities. As soon as a problem is real and in front of us, we adjust smoothly, even eagerly, thanks to an unwholesome zest for lapping up disgusting technical messes (and the campfire tales we get to tell later).

The un-compliment I will pay myself and my people is that we sometimes struggle to accept that progress is real, that the continued existence of bugs and edge cases does not diminish the fact that huge swaths of problem space do get more-or-less solved over time, to the point they can be taken for granted by most people.3

The speed at which code went from total crap to “ah damn, that’s not bad” is what I have in the back of my mind, as enthusiasts are telling us that harness engineering and AI validation is real, it’s already here, and it’s getting better astonishingly fast.

Holding out for “I’ll believe it when I see it” was forgivable the first time, but much less so the second time. This is what it feels like to be on the inside of an exponential change curve, turns out.4

What happened in 2025, exactly?

I want to pause here and be very clear about what I think is happening. Then I’m going to tell you what specifically I am excited about, and why.

You are under no obligation to join me there. But there are way too many sweeping statements out there right now about “it was never X” — “it was always Y” — “the future belongs to xyzzy” 🤮 — and I want to be crystal clear how conditional and specific and contextual my claims are.

What happened in 2025 was this: the economics of code production were turned upside down. Instead of being very hard, time-consuming, and expensive to generate code, it became effectively free and instant. Lines of code went from being treasured, reused, cared for and carefully curated, to being disposable and regenerable, practically overnight.

For most of computing history, the primary way people have learned to understand software is by writing the code. Once you've achieved some mastery, reading and discussing code gets you most of the way there. (I might argue that software engineers have always relied far too heavily on the code instead of sensemaking the system through observability.)

“The real product of a software team is shared understanding”

Many great software engineers hold that true product of every (good) software engineering team has always been a shared understanding of the software we own. That it gets stored as cache state in our fragile little meat brains, frequently flushed to disk, deployed to production, committed to github, but our minds are where meaning has always lived.

Is it any wonder that software has always been such a fiercely collectivist endeavor, exquisitely sensitive to relationship dynamics and manners and questions of fairness and emotional valence? It’s exactly what you’d expect when part of your brain lives in other people’s brains, and your collective interdependence is sky high.

It’s something that I love about this industry. But there’s no denying that minds have been a poor container for certain aspects of the software development model. We are forgetful, distractible, impatient. We are bad at spotting small details, we grow habituated to repetition. Worst of all, the model in our heads diverges massively and perpetually from the world our users interact with.

Anyway, SREs have never quite bought that explanation. To us, it’s clear that the true product of every (good) software engineering team is production.

Only prod is prod. Test in prod, or live a lie.

(This is all backstory. I am getting to the point, I promise.)

Turns out, this is an engineering problem after all

We issued our AI mandate last August.5 I had seen enough to know that this was happening, and it was time to do the responsible thing. Honeycomb is a devtools company, and people come to us to help with hard problems on the forefront of technology. I was all in on AI, but I can’t say I was super excited about it, in my heart of hearts.6

Then I found Chad Fowler’s writings on Phoenix Architectures.

If you don’t know what I’m talking about, you should honestly stop reading my shit right now and go read his. Chad is the guy who coined the term “immutable infrastructure” in 2013. His best-known essay is “Relocating Rigor”, because Martin Fowler7 mentioned it recapping a Thoughtworks meetup on the future of software. I replied with “Production Is Where the Rigor Goes”, complaining that they didn’t talk about production enough.

When I wrote that, I think “Relocating Rigor” was the only piece I had read. But soon I found the rest of it, and after reading two or three essays, it just clicked. I knew exactly what he was talking about. I could predict the rest of what he was going to say. And then, reader…then I got excited.

This has all happened before, and this will all happen again

I am going to give you a small sample of Chad quotes, just enough to get the gist. Here’s one from “The Death and Rebirth of Programming”.

Immutable infrastructure. Stateless services. Containers. Blue-green deployments. Infrastructure as code.

These ideas all share a common premise: never fix a running thing. Replace it.

AI pushes this premise beyond infrastructure and into application code itself. When rewriting is cheap, editing in place becomes risky. Mutation accumulates entropy. Replacement resets it.

Another favorite: “The Deletion Test”.

Here’s a simple test you can apply to any software system you work on:

Imagine deleting the entire implementation.

Most engineers experience deletion as existential. Code feels like the thing. It’s what we write, review, version, deploy, and debug. Losing it feels like losing the system itself.

When people say, “We can’t just throw the code away,” what they usually mean is something more precise:

  • We don’t know exactly what behavior is required.

  • We don’t know which failures are unacceptable.

  • We don’t know what invariants must always hold.

  • We don’t know how to tell if a new version is correct.

  • We don’t know which bugs are intentional fixes for forgotten edge cases.

Those are not code problems. They are evaluation problems.

Code becomes precious when it is the only place knowledge lives.

and,

For most of software history, treating code as durable was reasonable.

We treated code as permanent because the labor to produce it was the bottleneck. Rewriting was expensive. Re-validation was risky. Implementations accumulated meaning over time. Structure, tests, comments, bug fixes, and tribal knowledge fused into something you learned not to disturb.

That made sense when production was the constraint.

When regeneration is easy, code stops being an asset and starts acting as a cache: a materialized view of understanding that is useful while current, disposable when stale.

A materialized view of understanding that is useful while current, disposable when stale.” I think that might have been the exact line that made it click in my head.

Do you remember the sysadmins?

I am just barely old enough that my first job title was “System Administrator”. I was a teenager, working at the university, with root on every machine in the days before they learned they should definitely not do that.8

I lived through the shift from handcrafted server pets to immutable infrastructure cattle. I didn’t really understand what was happening at the time, but I’ve contemplated it a lot in recent years. I wrote this in the final chapter of “Observability Engineering”, 2nd edition (available for download as of Wednesday, June 17th!):

The shift from handcrafted servers to immutable infrastructure taught us that mutability is the sworn enemy of understanding. Any artifact that is edited in place creates drift. Drift is what makes systems impossible to maintain.

Our ability to kill and regenerate infrastructure components is the reason we trust it. At Honeycomb, we kill the oldest Kafka node off via cron every Tuesday. That’s why we are confident in our bootstrapping and balancing processes: everything is repeatable, the data can be regenerated, the commitments live elsewhere.

The fact that we cannot regenerate our code in the same way is a sign that we do not understand it. We do not know which commitments we have made, we do not know which dependencies will break. We find them by breaking them, mostly.

Think of all the years of your working life you have wasted on painful migrations and rewrites. Think of replacing load-bearing legacy code. Think of all the strangler figs.

Lines of code have been doing too much. The code has been the bundled up repository of developer intent, user expectations, implicit and explicit behaviors, the only fossilized composite record we have of bugs gone by. It’s too much!

Lines of code are not the ideal artifact to review

And look at all the domains that have been neglected due to the towering, all-consuming expense of maintaining and mutating lines of code. Where are the artifacts I can review and discuss to understand how our architecture is evolving? Where are our architecture artifacts, period? What if we could discuss and converge on an architecture diagram, and the code could be regenerated from changes to the architecture, instead of the architecture being kinda-sorta inferred from the code?

I am not asserting that all code will eventually be AI-generated to spec, bypassing human understanding. The feasibility of this whole endeavor hangs on the question of what a spec is, or what a spec could be. Anyone who has ever done a painful database migration should have learned some goddamn humility about our ability to extract and formalize users’ expectations in a replayable, automate-able way.

But I think that every step we can take in that direction will be good for us.

The tools to do this don’t exist yet, but many of the ideas do exist. Most come from operations and QA, two domains that software engineering has historically been rather snobbish about.

Those tests and techniques are not about testing for correctness or what ought to be happening, they are about observing and encoding what is happening. Behavioral tests, characterization tests, capture/replay, traffic splitters. Observability (the good kind).

Our brains were not built for validation

Having nondeterministic code in production is finally forcing us to do the things we should have done all along. Instrumenting with traces. Tests and evals in production. Production is not what happens after development is over, production is a stage of development.

Human brains are not good at validation. The nitpickiness, the repetition. This is the worst thing to be clinging to, y’all. There are so many better things for us to want to preserve and assert for ourselves in the production and maintenance of software. We are never going to beat the machine when it comes to validation — we are literally the weakest link!

My money’s on humans for a good long time when it comes to creativity, inspiration, leaps of logic, and a lot of other things, but PLEASE do not rest your killer argument for humans in software on us being the best quality gate. OMG. 🙈

Alright. I’m almost done here. Just one more thing.

Nondeterministic systems will require more engineering discipline, not less

I think what many engineers have found so alienating and terrifying about the last two years of AI discourse has been the way so many prominent AI voices appear to be gleefully declaring that software is no longer an engineering problem. “SaaS is dead!” “Making AI great at coding was the strategy that unlocks everything else”, and so on. Even Adam Jacob, one of my dearest friends and someone who is rarely wrong about technology, seems to anticipate a bloodbath of software jobs.9

If 2025 was the year of vibe coding, where AI got as good at generating lines of code as the median software engineer, and the range of possible futures often felt destabilizingly, impossibly wide open, I feel like 2026 is shaping up to be a return to discipline.

The knowledge in our heads is unavailable to AI until we encode it into the system, after all. The returns on those investments will be massive and nonlinear. We might argue that they always would have paid for themselves in the long run. But now every CEO in existence is chomping at the bit to get some of those AI cookies, so let’s give it to them. Discipline first, cookies second.

This is our chance to bring our engineering values to the mainstream

The share of software engineering teams that work in short, fast feedback loops (the cardinal sign of discipline in my book) is, and always has been, appallingly small. Five percent, maybe? Definitely less than 10%. AI tooling brings this more within reach than ever before. Or it can. It could. The discontinuous returns on investment in engineering discipline are real enough that it just might happen.

I am not worried, at least in the near term, about AI creating massive, discontinuous returns on investment in the absence of engineering discipline. (Many will try, and it will be entertaining to watch.)

But value is backed by durability, not disposability, and I don’t see that changing. Bits are cheap and fast and governed by the rules of logic and language, but anything with value must ultimately resolve with physical systems: persistence on the one side, user experience on the other.

People do not want to wake up every day and log in to Slack and find the buttons and menus all subtly moved around. People do not want financial transactions that complete most of the time. Determinism is not going anywhere, my friends.

AI is not magic. This is still engineering. As Adam says, “it’s still technology, and technology needs technologists.” And I for one am looking forward to learning new and interesting engineering problems, reviewing different kinds of artifacts.

And never doing another sticky, picky, two year long API rewrite or strangler fig migration, ever, ever again.

~charity

P.S. Thanks to everyone who read a draft and gave me feedback: Dave Williams, Chad Fowler, Adam Jacob, Mark Ferlatte, Austin Parker, Erwin van der Koogh, Ankur Bhatt.

1

I was not trying to be neutral or even-handed in my last piece, only to give a baseline of courtesy to everyone. But I think it’s revealing how many times I was accused of being “so overly hard on skeptics”, by skeptics, and “so overly hard on enthusiasts”, by enthusiasts, and sometimes simply “It’s sad how some people can’t accept reality” with no indication which side they meant. Lord.

2

Fred Hebert and I gave the closing keynote at SRECon in March of 2025 where we told SREs they should get to know AI, maybe even try vibe coding (pause for laughs), because otherwise their critiques wouldn’t land as well.

Seriously, that was our big pitch. Learn AI so that you can complain more effectively.

3

Infrastructure, for example. I think this is true of a lot of engineers, btw. I just think it’s really really true of the type of engineer that signs up to be an SRE. Technological pessimism and ADHD, our two most defining traits.

4

There is a segment of AI enthusiasts who believe we are entering an era of eternal exponential growth, in which the machines begin to build better and better machines, in ways we cannot understand.

I think those people are bad at math. The only thing we know for certain about exponential growth is that it will end. It always does. either in an S curve or a crash. (For a good time, google Heinz van Foerster and “our great-great grandchildren will be squeezed to death.”)

I definitely think we will use machines to build the machines — duh, we already are — but that’s about recursion and specialization. I think the exponential curve we are on the inside of now was created by sloshy free money chasing high returns, plus the properties of software as a function of language and logic, plus the biggest discoveries always happen in the early days of a technology boom, because low hanging fruit gets picked first.

My personal sense — and keep in mind that I am no kind of expert on AI — is that the exponential advancement in AI models leveled out a while ago, and gains are becoming harder to earn and more incremental in nature. I may turn out to be very wrong, of course. But even if there were no more AI innovations moving forwards, the past year has unleashed enough pent-up force to radically reshape the software industry as we know it. Like a pig in a python, we will be dealing with the consequences for a long time to come.

5

More on this coming EXTREMELY soon. Watch the Honeycomb blog!

6

The tech is cool, but as a thinking, feeling, breathing human who cares about other people, it can be hard to get excited about anything that so many people are this upset about. It’s also hard to get excited about something when so many of the loudest voices are out there talking gleefully about putting everyone permanently out of work, and so many artists and writers and people from developing nations are talking openly about the impact on them.

Hold your desire to jump in and berate me here, I beg you. Like I said, I will deal with the ethics and morality of using AI in my very next post. Be honest, your attention span is no more up for reading a 10,000-word essay than mine is up for writing one. (Can we blame AI for that too?)

7

“The Other Fowler.” I gather they’ve been making this joke for like.. fifty years.

8

I share a longer version of this story in the second edition of “Observability Engineering, chapter 32, downloadable later this week!!"

9

Adam is rarely wrong about technology, and I am 100% sure he is living and working in _a_ future of software engineering. I am less sure it is the future we will all be living in. If the hardest part of software has never been writing code — as is my belief — it logically follows that even if the economics of code production drop to zero, the hard parts will still be hard.

Astrobotic showcases Griffin-1 lander ahead of environmental testing in California

Technicians work on Astrobotic’s Griffin-1 lander inside a cleanroom at the company’s facility in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Monday, June 15, 2026. Image: Will Robinson-Smith/Spaceflight Now

Astrobotic showed off its nearly completed lunar lander, named Griffin-1, as the vehicle prepares to head to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California for environmental testing later this month.

The robotic lander, which has a 650 kg payload capacity, has been integrated with multiple payloads so far. On exception is Astrolab’s FLIP (FLEX Lunar Innovation Platform) rover. FLIP will meet its lander down at Cape Canaveral for integration in the final weeks ahead of launch later this year.

Dozens gathered on Monday at the Moonshot Museum in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to mark the milestone. The site is adjacent to Astrobotic’s facilities and has a large window into the cleanroom, which allows for public viewing of the ongoing work.

“It’s fantastic to see the cross-section of Pittsburgh and Pennsylvania standing up, coming together, celebrating this big, big moment in space,” said John Thornton, Astrobotic’s CEO.

“Pittsburgh is in the space race. it’s not just a thing that happens in Houston or San Francisco or LA or Florida anymore. It happens right here in Pennsylvania and it’s in part do to the partnerships, the great people in this room that helped build this region up.”

Technicians work on Astrobotic’s Griffin-1 lander inside a cleanroom at the company’s facility in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Monday, June 15, 2026. Image: Will Robinson-Smith/Spaceflight Now

Thornton noted that the Griffin lander concept has been in the development chain going back nearly to the founding of Astrobotic almost two decades ago. The Griffin-1 mission is the follow up to the company’s first lunar landing attempt in January 2024, Peregrine-1.

That lander encountered a helium valve issue early in flight, which prevented a landing attempt. Thornton said their in-house avionics and other systems on the lander worked as expected on that flight and the post-anomaly review board worked through the fault tree and potential links to the future Griffin landers.

“The Griffin lander behind me has integrated all of those lessons learned. We did an exhaustive failure review board that did not just look at what we knew had failed, but also any other things that could have failed or any potential risks,” Thornton said.

“We’ve closed all of those loops with this lander behind me. This lander has a dual redundant valve system, two dissimilar valves that both have to fail to have the same outcome,” he added. “That will not happen. We are done with valve issues on our landers.”

The payload for the Certification-1 (Cert-1) flight test on a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Vulcan rocket prior to encapsulation inside its payload fairing in preparation for launch. The mission launched the first Astrobotic Peregrine commercial lunar lander, as part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative, into a highly elliptical orbit more than 220,000 miles (360,000 km) above Earth to intercept the Moon and carry a Celestis Memorial Spaceflight Payload into deep space. Image: ULA

Also present for Monday’s event was Carlos García-Galán, NASA’s Program Executive for the Moon Base. During a recent Moon Base event at NASA Headquarters in Washington D.C., he and NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman pointed to the Griffin-1 mission as a foundational flight for the program, dubbing it the Moon Base 2 mission.

During Monday’s event, García-Galán said the mission is a crucial stepping stone as the agency learns what will ultimately be needed for permanent infrastructure at the Moon’s south pole.

“It’s so critical that we get this going quickly, fast, and then it’s going to be one of the cornerstones of setting up the cadence we’re going to need to build this,” García-Galán said. “This mission, that this machine is part of, is more than about carrying payloads. It’s carrying new technologies that will help us understand how to do these things, like landing on the Moon successfully, reliably, and deploying rovers that would then give us the ground truth for deployment systems, and operating all at once: doing the operations, the communications, all of that stuff.”

Last week, Astrobotic announced that it was in the process of being acquired by Voyager Technologies, making it part of its lunar strategy. Matt Magaña, Voyager’s President of Defense & National Security, said Monday that the work Astrobotic is undertaking made a natural fit for Voyager’s deep space ambitions.

“Thank you, all of Astrobotic’s folks, for all the work you’ve done to get to this Griffin-1, but this is only the beginning,” Magaña said. “Super excited for the launch this year. Super excited for all the plans that we have to help scale this company, help scale this, and actually get a habitat on the lunar surface.”

Left to right: Matt Magaña, John Thornton, Carlos García-Galán, Kelly Randell, Justine Kasznica, Ryan Stephan, and Dr. Jimyse Brown pose in front of the Griffin-1 (Moon Base 2) lander. Image: Will Robinson-Smith/Spaceflight Now

The main payload on the Griffin-1 mission, FLIP, is also undergoing its own environmental tests and checkouts after completing its own payload integration. The rover is a pathfinder for technology that Astrolab will use on its lunar terrain vehicles: the Crewed Lunar Vehicle (CLV-1) and the Flexible Logistics and Exploration (FLEX).

The FLIP rover was designed and actualized in about 18 months after NASA temporarily cancelled its VIPER (Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover) mission in July 2024, leaving an opening on Griffin-1. Kelly Randell, Astrolab’s Business Development Manager, said they’re excited to be carrying NASA payloads on its own technology demonstration mission.

“We’re really honored to be part of this with NASA and Astrobotic. We’re also honored that the FLIP mission will hopefully really further technologies for our lunar terrain vehicle, which hopefully will have astronauts driving it in the very near future,” Randell said.

“So we think about all of the opportunities that this mission will bring, that it will really make a tangible impact on what we’re trying to build up on the surface, and really enable us to build a sustainable human prescreens off-planet, which I think is just incredible.”

The Griffin-1 mission is scheduled to launch onboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket in the fourth quarter of 2026. A specific launch date hasn’t been announced.

One of the Highest Moral Lessons

Cloudflare CAPTCHA on at least one ampersand

I use Cloudflare's CAPTCHA (they call it a "Managed Challenge") on simonwillison.net/search/ to prevent crawlers from following every single possible combination of my faceted search UI.

This was getting pretty annoying, since I had to wait for the challenge every time I searched my own site.

I don't particularly care about regular ?q=term searches. Where things get messy is if a crawler starts hitting every combination of:

  • ?q=term&type=entry
  • ?q=term&type=entry&year=2006
  • ?q=term&type=entry&year=2006&tag=browsers

etc.

I decided to switch the Cloudflare rules around to activating only on hits to /search/ that included at least one & in the query string section.

Here's what that rule expression looks like:

(http.request.uri.path wildcard r"/search/*" and http.request.uri.query contains "&")

Trying the Cloudflare MCP

I originally tried to figure this out using Claude Code and Cloudflare's MCP server. I got that working by creating a dedicated folder:

mkdir cloudflare-dev
cd cloudflare-dev

And then setting up the MCP so it would only be active for Claude Code sessions started in that folder:

echo '{
  "mcpServers": {
    "cloudflare-api": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://mcp.cloudflare.com/mcp"
    }
  }
}' > .mcp.json
mkdir .claude
echo '{
  "enabledMcpjsonServers": [
    "cloudflare-api"
  ]
}' > .claude/settings.local.json

(I actually set it up by pasting the MCP JSON into Claude Code and saying "set this up to only work in this project folder", but the above is effectively what it did.)

Then I ran claude in the folder and used the /mcp command, selected the Cloudflare MCP and used the authenticate option to jump through an OAuth flow.

... which didn't work, because as far as I can tell Cloudflare's MCP doesn't yet implement tools to view and modify the rules in question.

Claude did suggest using the API instead, but I'd need an API token.

Using the API instead

I created an API token using dash.cloudflare.com/profile/api-tokens.

Cloudflare have a template for "Read all resources", and it turns out you can use that as a starting point.

I flipped the "Zone WAF" one to "Edit" and set the key to expire tomorrow. Then I copied the resulting key into a token.txt file.

(In the Cloudflare dashboard I believe this feature is called "Web Application Firewall > Custom rules".)

Then I let Claude Code handle the rest. Here's a rough version of what it did, assuming a token in a $TOKEN environment variable:

export TOKEN="$(cat token.txt)"
curl -s -H "Authorization: Bearer $TOKEN" \
  "https://api.cloudflare.com/client/v4/zones?name=simonwillison.net" \
  | jq '{success, errors, zones: [.result[] | {id, name}]}'

This got back the zone ID, which is 2ce4f4f41f239d041e25f8320ad3c3fd.

Then to list the custom WAF rules:

export ZONE="2ce4f4f41f239d041e25f8320ad3c3fd"
curl -s -H "Authorization: Bearer $TOKEN" \
  "https://api.cloudflare.com/client/v4/zones/$ZONE/rulesets/phases/http_request_firewall_custom/entrypoint" \
  | jq '{success, errors, rules: [.result.rules[]? | {description, action, expression, enabled}]}'

This started with:

{
  "success": true,
  "errors": [],
  "rules": [
    {
      "description": "/search/ extra protection",
      "action": "managed_challenge",
      "expression": "(http.request.uri.path wildcard r\"/search/*\")",
      "enabled": true
    },

To edit that rule via API we need the ruleset ID and the rule ID:

curl -s -H "Authorization: Bearer $TOKEN" \
  "https://api.cloudflare.com/client/v4/zones/$ZONE/rulesets/phases/http_request_firewall_custom/entrypoint" \
  | jq '{ruleset_id: .result.id, rule: (.result.rules[] | select(.description=="/search/ extra protection") | {id, description, action, expression, enabled})}'

Returning:

{
  "ruleset_id": "0682fdbd40cc444cbe1e93d136e2b174",
  "rule": {
    "id": "8b2766d7802e4e988163531670976cb9",
    "description": "/search/ extra protection",
    "action": "managed_challenge",
    "expression": "(http.request.uri.path wildcard r\"/search/*\"",
    "enabled": true
  }
}

And finally we can update that with the new expression:

export RS=0682fdbd40cc444cbe1e93d136e2b174
export RULE=8b2766d7802e4e988163531670976cb9

curl -s -X PATCH \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $TOKEN" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  "https://api.cloudflare.com/client/v4/zones/$ZONE/rulesets/$RS/rules/$RULE" \
  --data '{
    "action": "managed_challenge",
    "expression": "(http.request.uri.path wildcard r\"/search/*\" and http.request.uri.query contains \"&\")",
    "description": "/search/ extra protection",
    "enabled": true
  }'

Maybe it's time for lots of little indie AIs to take over

“[T]here can be alternatives. What we can imagine is, rather than the ChatGPT killer, a lot of different little AIs from little responsible players.”

That’s me, in The Guardian a few days ago, trying to distill a message that I’ve been trying to get out as broadly as possible for quite a while now. It's sort of like hoping a comet will take out the major AI players and a bunch of smaller new players will be the smarter, better-adapted mammals that take their place instead.

We’re in another one of those big inflection points for AI. Trump administration policymakers for AI suspended access to Anthropic’s newest product. All of these policymakers have a web of investments in competing players — including SpaceX, which is about to IPO — and the corruption and grift of this cohort are so extensive that it’s impossible to judge what the actual risks and reality are around any of these platforms or technologies, since no one involved is an honest broker.

It’s a shame

More broadly, there’s been the widespread pushback against AI culturally, one that is undeniably strongest amongst those who were born in this century. But the adoption patterns and usage data show that even younger people are using some AI tools. And that’s a pattern that we’ve seen before, with social media. We have a significant group of people knowing that a technology contradicts some of their values, preferences, or beliefs, but using it anyway.

Sometimes it’s due to the coercive nature of the platforms themselves, and how they insinuate themselves into our lives, to the point where we don’t even realize we’re using them. Sometimes they are forced upon us by the creators of the platforms, since they have so much power over the devices we use, and the tools that we rely on for things like doing our jobs, or communicating with our loved ones or our communities.

There are millions of people who don’t like that they’re using LLMs provided by the Big AI companies, but end up using them anyway. Just like there are hundreds of millions of people who don’t like that they’re on the giant social networking platforms like Facebook, but end up using them anyway. The feelings that people walk away from those experiences with are often guilt, or shame, or embarrassment, or resentment — all some of the most negative and destructive emotions that humans can experience.

Actual alternatives

But if people want to get the benefits of some of these technologies, without either the shame of supporting the harms of Big AI, or the unpredictability of being beholden to corrupt billionaires bickering with one another, there are finally starting to be other options. As I mentioned in (One) Good AI Is Here, it’s possible for creators working in their own communities to now make AI tools that serve their specific needs, without causing all the harms that make people object to Big AI.

This feels like the true alternative to the narrative of “inevitability” that so much of the hyper-funded AI industry is trying to push, while also not forcing people into a quiet life of AI guilt if they still find some utility in some aspects of these tools.

Right now, those who (rightly!) object to Big AI due to their platforms’ impact on the environment, or labor, or their extractive use of content without consent, or its many other potential harms, are generally not aware of, or often open to, the idea of there being small, human-scale tools created by and for communities that are accountable for those tools over time. But my suspicion is that it is not only possible to make these tools, there may in fact already be many of these tools in existence, and we’re just not as familiar with them because they’ve been quietly serving their specific niches without having multi-billion-dollar campaigns promoting them.

What I'm unabashedly hoping to do (and I think the Guardian story reflects some momentum in that regard), is shift the narrative from focusing on running away from the bad thing in AI, to finding the good thing that we're running toward. There are alternatives that we could be affirmatively choosing, ones that look at questions like the one I asked more than a year ago, "[https://www.anildash.com/2025/05/01/what-would-good-ai-look-like/](What Would "Good" AI Look Like?")", and offer answers that might give us hope instead of just the righteous rage and anger we feel when we let our imaginations be constrained by the limits of what Big AI offers.

datasette-agent 0.3a0

Release: datasette-agent 0.3a0

  • New tool, execute_write_sql, which requests user approval and then writes to a database - taking user permissions into account. #27

I added a mechanism for asking user approval in datasette agent 0.2a0. The new execute_write_sql tool can now prompt the user for all kinds of useful operations. Here's an example where I add some pelican sightings to my pelican_sightings table:

Screenshot of a chat interface showing a write SQL confirmation dialog. User message (blue bubble): "I saw 4 pelicans flying over the harbor". Collapsed tool section: "► Tool: execute_write_sql". A yellow-bordered confirmation card reads: "Confirm write SQL batch / Database: pelicans / Statements execute in order. If one statement fails, later statements will not be executed. / Statement 1 / INSERT INTO pelican_sightings (number_of_pelicans, notes) VALUES (:number_of_pelicans, :notes); / number_of_pelicans 4 / notes Flying over the harbor". A table with columns "Operation, Database, Table, Required permissions" shows row: "insert, pelicans, pelican_sightings" with permission buttons "insert-row", "update-row", "delete-row". Below: "Execute 1 write SQL statement against database 'pelicans'? / Asked by tool: execute_write_sql" with "Yes" (blue) and "No" (gray) buttons.

The new version also enhances the datasette agent chat terminal mode to support approvals, and adds several new options including --unsafe mode for auto-approving them:

  • datasette agent chat can execute tools that require user approval. #30
  • Three new options for datasette agent chat - --root to run as root, --yes to approve all ask user questions, and --unsafe for both.
  • Tools can now provide plain text alternatives to HTML, for display in the datasette agent chat CLI. #31

The datasette agent chat content.db -m gpt-5.5 --unsafe command can now be used to chat directly with a specific database and directly modify it through prompts like "create a notes table", "add a note about X" etc.

Tags: projects, ai, datasette, annotated-release-notes, generative-ai, llms, llm-tool-use, datasette-agent

"They screwed us": Personality clashes sent Anthropic's models offline

"They screwed us": Personality clashes sent Anthropic's models offline

Lots of "source familiar with the administration's thinking" and "source close to Anthropic" in this Axios piece, which is the best collection of behind-the-scenes gossip I've seen about the US government export control Mythos/Fable story so far.

Logan Graham (I lead the Frontier Red Team at Anthropic), Dave Orr (Head of Safeguards, previously a Director of Engineering at Google DeepMind), and blog favorite Nicholas Carlini are reported to be meeting with the Commerce Department today in D.C. Good luck to them!

(I just noticed Logan was "Special Adviser to the Prime Minister" in the Boris Johnson era, covering AI, science, and technology policy - so significant political experience.)

This closing notes doesn't give me much optimism that we'll be getting Fable back any time soon:

The bottom line: One option is to make sure Anthropic's models can't be jailbroken — though perfect jailbreak resistance may be impossible.

Absent that, a source familiar with the administration's thinking said it may simply come down to an attitude fix where, instead of feeling dismissed, "everyone feels safe, secure and happy."

This made me wonder if Anthropic ever successfully addressed the class of attacks described in the Universal and Transferable Adversarial Attacks on Aligned Language Models paper from 2023.

It looks like their Constitutional Classifiers work (that post is from January this year) is relevant to that. They continue to claim that no "universal jailbreak" has been found against Claude Mythos, classifying the jailbreak that triggered the US government response as "a potential narrow, non-universal jailbreak".

Tags: jailbreaking, ai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, claude, nicholas-carlini, ai-ethics, claude-mythos

Quoting Julia Evans

[...] Instead, I picture a specific person and I just write for them. Often this person is "me, but 3 years ago" or a good friend.

Julia Evans, write for 1 person

Tags: writing, julia-evans

A Chinese rocket breaks apart dangerously close to the Starlink constellation

The upper stage from a commercial Chinese rocket that launched last week has broken apart in space, spreading debris in a heavily trafficked part of low-Earth orbit home to the International Space Station and a significant portion of SpaceX's Starlink broadband network.

The breakup occurred shortly after the Zhuque-2E rocket reached orbit on June 9 with two satellites providing direct-to-cell communications, perhaps around the time the upper stage was expected to perform a disposal burn. The US Space Force confirmed the breakup event in a post on space-track.org, a website used by the military to distribute orbit data to the public.

"The tracked pieces are being incorporated into routine conjunction assessment to support spaceflight safety," the Space Force wrote in an advisory. "There are currently no threats to human spaceflight. Analysis is ongoing."

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Meet the New Bosses, Worse Than the Old Bosses

Many people have compared our current era to the Gilded Age. But that analogy is deeply unfair to the Gilded Age. Like the robber barons of yore, today’s oligarchs are immensely wealthy — even wealthier, relative to the economy as a whole, than their predecessors. And extreme wealth corrupts our democracy. But the corruption is deeper and more destructive now than it was then: The mitigating factors that once put some brakes on the harm done by excessive wealth concentration are now mostly gone.

About wealth concentration: The standard source for information on extreme wealth is the Forbes 400 list. Forbes only began compiling that list in its current form in 1982, but it published its first listing of America’s top fortunes in 1918. The chart above compares the wealth of the richest 5 Americans in 1918 with that of the richest 15 in 2025 — 15, not 5, because the total U.S. population more than tripled over that period. I scale their wealth both as a percentage of total wealth and as a share of GDP.

Either way, the concentration of wealth at the very top is much higher now than it ever was during the Gilded Age. And these are numbers from last year, before the SpaceX IPO. The robber barons were pikers compared with today’s oligarchs.

This level of wealth brings with it immense political influence. A New York Times analysis found that 300 billionaires accounted for 19 percent of political contributions in the 2024 election. And since the election the power of money has grown even stronger.

In part this reflects the way great wealth has been used to corrupt the media. Elon Musk bought Twitter, not as a financial investment, but to turn it into the right-wing fever swamp it has now become. Larry Ellison, America’s second-richest man, purchased CBS basically to destroy it as an independent news source and convert it into Fox News 2.0, a goal he is achieving — and he is now on track to do the same to CNN.

On top of this, the presidency is now more or less openly for sale. “Donald Trump,” writes Forbes, “has presided over the most lucrative presidency in history,” adding $4.2 billion to his personal wealth since regaining the White House.

There were many corruption scandals during the Gilded Age, but none on this scale.

What do today’s uberrich do with their political power? Much of what they push for involves their own self-interest. In 2024 Mark Zuckerberg basically used his financial clout to kill bipartisan legislation that would have tried to protect children from psychological harm due to social media and, of course, put some restrictions on Meta. The Koch family has spent decades doing everything it can to prevent action against climate change and keep America burning fossil fuels.

Beyond this, some megabillionaires use their power to push political extremism.

True, Elon Musk is something of an outlier; you have to go some ways down the list to find someone comparably extreme (Peter Thiel is #40.) And he isn’t the first incredibly wealthy man to be deeply bigoted and an avid consumer of conspiracy theories: Henry Ford was a rabid anti-Semite who published and distributed The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, a forgery probably concocted by the Russian secret police.

Still, it’s remarkable that the world’s richest man has passionately embraced the “Great Replacement” theory of a sinister conspiracy to replace whites with nonwhite immigrants.

And it’s equally remarkable that our political system accepts it as a fact of life that such a person should command such power, even leaving on one side the dubious roots of his wealth. Where’s the outrage?

Obviously some Americans are outraged, but the backlash against a highly corrupt, rigged system is far weaker than one might have expected. Why?

I’ll return to this question in later posts, but it’s clear that modern America suffers from a combination of cynicism — “everybody does it” — and fatalism — “that’s just how the world works” — far worse than anything we experienced in the robber baron era.

You can see this moral malaise in the shrugs with which all too many politicians, especially but not only Republicans, greet each new revelation of presidential scandal. You can also see it in the behavior of the ultrawealthy themselves.

Make no mistake: the men on that 1918 Forbes list were, without exception, ruthless businessmen. The term “robber barons,” popularized in the 1930s by the historian Mattew Josephson, was apt. The great fortunes of the late 19th and early 20th centuries were accumulated by men who functionally played the same role as feudal warlords extorting tolls from travelers passing their castles. In particular, John D. Rockefeller, the world’s richest man, in effect controlled an essential economic choke point, a sort of financial Strait of Hormuz, through his monopolization of oil refining.

Yet many of the robber barons also possessed a sense of noblesse oblige, believing that they should deploy some of their riches on behalf of the public good.

Many of the robber barons gave huge sums to philanthropy. These included large donations to cultural institutions, which continue to enrich our society to this day. Mention Andrew Carnegie or Henry Clay Frick to a modern New Yorker and the first things they think of will probably be Carnegie Hall and the Frick Collection of fine art.

No doubt this was in large part a public relations exercise, but the fact that the robber barons believed that this PR effort was necessary was itself a symptom of a society less cynical than it is today. And the Gilded Age wealthy left a lasting legacy of good deeds to set against the history of their ruthless business practices.

By contrast, today’s oligarchs spend very little on good works, according to Forbes. Musk and Ellison have both given away less than 1 percent of their fortunes.

And Musk in particular is the opposite of a philanthropist. Not only doesn’t he spend any of his own money to help others, he used his power when running DOGE to cut off aid to poor countries, condemning hundreds of thousands of children to avoidable death. And he was gleeful about it:

Again, where is the outrage?

So, are we living in a second Gilded Age? If only. We surpassed Gilded Age levels of income and wealth inequality decades ago. We’re now in an era of oligarchy in which the power of great wealth and the abuse of that power by a tiny elite eclipse anything we saw in the late 19th and early 20th century. And the super-wealthy themselves are far more lacking in redemptive qualities than their predecessors.

Meet the new bosses, worse than the old bosses.

MUSICAL CODA

Monday 15 June 1663

Up betimes, and anon my wife rose and did give me her keys, and put other things in order and herself against going this morning into the country. I was forced to go to Thames Street and strike up a bargain for some tarr, to prevent being abused therein by Hill, who was with me this morning, and is mightily surprised that I should tell him what I can have the same tarr with his for. Thence home, but finding my wife gone, I took coach and after her to her inn, where I am troubled to see her forced to sit in the back of the coach, though pleased to see her company none but women and one parson; she I find is troubled at all, and I seemed to make a promise to get a horse and ride after them; and so, kissing her often, and Ashwell once, I bid them adieu. So home by coach, and thence by water to Deptford to the Trinity House, where I came a little late; but I found them reading their charter, which they did like fools, only reading here and there a bit, whereas they ought to do it all, every word, and then proceeded to the election of a maister, which was Sir W. Batten, without any control, who made a heavy, short speech to them, moving them to give thanks to the late Maister for his pains, which he said was very great, and giving them thanks for their choice of him, wherein he would serve them to the best of his power. Then to the choice of their assistants and wardens, and so rose. I might have received 2s. 6d. as a younger Brother, but I directed one of the servants of the House to receive it and keep it.

Thence to church, where Dr. Britton preached a sermon full of words against the Nonconformists, but no great matter in it, nor proper for the day at all. His text was, “With one mind and one mouth give glory to God, the Father of our Lord Jesus Christ.”

That done, by water, I in the barge with the Maister, to the Trinity House at London; where, among others, I found my Lords Sandwich and Craven, and my cousin Roger Pepys, and Sir Wm. Wheeler. Anon we sat down to dinner, which was very great, as they always have. Great variety of talk. Mr. Prin, among many, had a pretty tale of one that brought in a bill in parliament for the empowering him to dispose his land to such children as he should have that should bear the name of his wife. It was in Queen Elizabeth’s time. One replied that there are many species of creatures where the male gives the denomination to both sexes, as swan and woodcock, but not above one where the female do, and that is a goose.

Both at and after dinner we had great discourses of the nature and power of spirits, and whether they can animate dead bodies; in all which, as of the general appearance of spirits, my Lord Sandwich is very scepticall. He says the greatest warrants that ever he had to believe any, is the present appearing of the Devil1 in Wiltshire, much of late talked of, who beats a drum up and down. There are books of it, and, they say, very true; but my Lord observes, that though he do answer to any tune that you will play to him upon another drum, yet one tune he tried to play and could not; which makes him suspect the whole; and I think it is a good argument.

Sometimes they talked of handsome women, and Sir J. Minnes saying that there was no beauty like what he sees in the country-markets, and specially at Bury, in which I will agree with him that there is a prettiest women I ever saw. My Lord replied thus: “Sir John, what do you think of your neighbour’s wife?” looking upon me. “Do you not think that he hath a great beauty to his wife? Upon my word he hath.” Which I was not a little proud of.

Thence by barge with my Lord to Blackfriars, where we landed and I thence walked home, where vexed to find my boy (whom I boxed at his coming for it) and Will abroad, though he was but upon Tower Hill a very little while.

My head akeing with the healths I was forced to drink to-day I sent for the barber, and he having done, I up to my wife’s closett, and there played on my viallin a good while, and without supper anon to bed, sad for want of my wife, whom I love with all my heart, though of late she has given me some troubled thoughts.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Key mission for Europe's commercial space enterprise scrubbed again

Isar Aerospace still commands top position among a new generation of European rocket startups, but the company's efforts to launch a critical test flight of its Spectrum rocket continue to encounter roadblocks.

The latest delay came Monday, when Isar scrubbed a launch attempt after "detecting off nominal behavior in the vehicle's fluid systems," according to a social media post. "The teams are analyzing the new data to isolate the root cause."

The two-stage, 92-foot-tall (28-meter) Spectrum rocket was awaiting liftoff from Andøya Spaceport in northern Norway. It was the fourth time in five months that Isar Aerospace, headquartered near Munich, Germany, had reached a target launch date for the second test flight of the Spectrum launch vehicle.

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The 2026 Laws That Turned Politics Into a Pressure Test

The first half of 2026 did not produce quiet legislation. It produced political stress tests. Governments tried to regulate AI, voting, crypto donations, assisted dying, cyber speech and constitutional reform while voters asked the same question in different languages: who gets power, who gets protection and who gets watched?

The most controversial laws were not controversial because they were technical. They touched identity, speech, death, elections and digital control. Each initiative carried a promise. Each carried a threat.

Voting Reform Became a Trust Fight

The UK’s Representation of the People Bill became one of the clearest examples of electoral reform turning into a wider argument about democracy. The bill tracks proposals around votes at 16 , automatic voter registration, political donations and voter ID rules.

Supporters frame it as modernization. Younger voters already work, pay tax, study policy through social media and live inside the consequences of government decisions. Critics argue that expanding the franchise while changing registration and donation rules simultaneously creates too much of a political advantage for one side.

The crypto-donation issue added heat. Digital assets make political finance harder to trace when money moves across borders and wallets. That concern does not belong only to Westminster. Any country with intense diaspora politics, online fundraising and party machines has to answer the same question: how much hidden money can democracy survive?

AI Regulation Hit the Brakes

The EU AI Act was supposed to define the next era of tech accountability. In 2026, lawmakers moved toward delaying and adjusting parts of the high-risk AI rulebook. That made businesses breathe easier and rights groups more anxious.

The argument is simple. Companies say compliance needs time, standards and practical guidance. Critics say delay benefits powerful AI firms while citizens face biometric systems, automated decisions and synthetic media now.

European Parliament proposals also pushed a ban on AI “nudifier” systems, aimed at tools that create or manipulate intimate sexual images of identifiable people without consent. That part of the debate is less abstract. It is about image abuse, blackmail, harassment and whether law can keep pace with cheap generative tools.

Mobile Betting Shows Why Regulation Must Track Behavior

Modern regulation often fails when it studies institutions but ignores user behavior. People do not experience digital systems as legal categories. They experience them as apps, alerts, forms, payments and fast decisions. A betting app download  sits inside that same behavioral economy because sports bettors judge trust by speed, navigation, market depth and settlement clarity. The strongest betting interfaces reduce confusion around odds, bet slips, live markets and account checks.

That matters for lawmakers because user protection works only when rules match real habits. If KYC is clumsy, users abandon it. If terms are hidden, disputes rise. If live odds update without clear display, bankroll discipline suffers. Good regulation should not pretend mobile behavior is slow and rational. It should assume users act under pressure, especially during live cricket, football or tennis markets.

Assisted Dying Split Parliament and Families

The UK assisted dying debate carried a different kind of weight. It was not about platforms or elections. It was about terminal illness, consent, safeguards and the state’s role at the end of life.

Supporters argue that mentally competent adults facing terminal illness should have a controlled legal route to end suffering. Opponents fear pressure on vulnerable people, weak safeguards and underfunded palliative care becoming a quiet form of coercion.

The controversy showed why moral legislation moves slowly. Polling can show broad support, but lawmakers still have to write procedures for doctors, courts, families and patients. A slogan cannot decide who qualifies, who verifies consent or what happens when relatives disagree.

Bangladesh’s Reform Vote Raised a Hard Question

The July Charter referendum put constitutional reform at the center of a post-uprising political reset. The package pointed toward changes in executive power, parliament, accountability and safeguards against authoritarian rule.

The dispute came from structure. Bundling many reforms into a single vote can make the public mandate hard to discern. A voter may support term limits but dislike another institutional change. Another may want judicial reform but reject a specific parliamentary model.

That is the legal puzzle of political reforms after mass protest. Citizens want speed because the old order has lost legitimacy. Constitutional design needs patience because badly written reform can create the next crisis.

Cyber Laws Returned Under a New Name

Cyber legislation remained one of the most sensitive areas in 2026. Bangladesh moved toward amending its Cyber Security Act to address misinformation, defamatory content and AI-generated deceptive media. The goal sounds reasonable. The risk is familiar.

Digital speech laws often begin with fake news and harassment. Then they drift into vague enforcement. Journalists, activists, opposition voices and ordinary users can become vulnerable if terms are broad and penalties feel unpredictable.

The practical test is narrow drafting. A good cyber law clearly identifies harm, assigns platforms defined duties, protects satire and journalism, and establishes appeal routes. A bad one turns online disagreement into a police matter.

Betting Platforms Live or Die by Clear Rules

Sports betting offers a useful parallel because the product collapses without transparent rules. Bettors need to know how odds are displayed, when a market closes, how void bets work and what KYC documents are required before withdrawal. The MelBet apk  fits into that mobile-first routine because sports users often want a direct path to live markets, cricket lines, football fixtures and account tools without fighting the browser. Clean app access matters most when odds move quickly.

The same principle applies to controversial laws. Rules must be readable before people are punished by them. In betting, unclear terms damage trust and bankroll planning. In politics, unclear laws damage speech, voting confidence and institutional legitimacy. A legal system should not work like a hidden rollover condition. Citizens need to see the mechanism before the result hits.

Photo: Christian Wasserfallen via Pexels


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Fans Looking for Serious Change to NHL All-Star Game after Epic Gold

On February 22, 2026, the audience witnessed an epic clash between the teams of the USA and Canada at the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics. Jack Hughes scored a critical goal in overtime, securing the first men’s gold medal in hockey since 1980. It wasn’t just a game. It was a reminder of what professional hockey looks like. With the rising public interest, many fans consider coming back to betting at GGBet while predicting the outcomes of future games.

Gold Medal Game Changing the Conversation

The recent clash offered incredible speed and tension that kept us on the edge of chairs for two hours. NBC’s decision to air the game without in-play commercials allowed fans to enjoy the action without interruptions. Hughes’ score made Americans explode while leaving Canadians heartbroken. Everyone agreed on one thing: this was hockey at its purest. But the audience wants more. More voices are calling for the NHL to restructure the All-Star Game.

The NHL cancelled All-Star festivities to let players compete in the Olympics for the first time since 2014. The decision paid off. The gold medal game created drama, bringing high ratings that the All-Star Game has struggled to match for years. Fans went crazy on social media. Some suggested scrapping the All-Star Game entirely. Others proposed an annual showdown between the USA and Canada. International competition resonates with the audience far more than exhibition matchups.

4 Nations Face-Off Blueprint

The 4 Nations Face-Off, held during the 2025 All-Star break, became a preview of what modern international hockey can achieve. The event invited top players from the United States, Canada, Sweden, and Finland. It generated many viral moments for the sport in North America. With more than two dozen sponsors on board, 4 Nations Face-Off was made at the top level. No wonder television ratings outperformed recent All-Star editions.

When the best players represent their countries, fans pay attention. That’s a new reality. The NHL has time to do homework before the World Cup of Hockey in 2028. Great emotions make the audience come back for more.

Why International Hockey Hits Different

Representing your country is “the pinnacle of the sport.” Fans also want to see their national teams on the ice. The NHL All-Star Game failed to reach the proper balance between fun and intrigue. The three-on-three format added some excitement in recent years, but the play remained limited. Why? The stakes don’t seem to be high enough. The Olympic gold medal game turned out to be a game-changer.

Some traditionalists argued that a gold medal should be decided five-on-five. According to reports from TSN insider Chris Johnston, the International Ice Hockey Federation has no plans to change the format. All games were settled without a shootout, which remains a point of pride for the federation. The three-on-three overtime creates drama, and it’s all that matters these days.

Olympic Impact on the NHL

The hockey match between the USA and Canada was a commercial success. NBC and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation fought for Olympic rights. Visa and Samsung invested in global marketing campaigns. The Olympics provided a second powerful data point following the 4 Nations event. Best-on-best hockey is commercially successful and globally appealing.

The 2028 World Cup could follow the hype. Media rights for the tournament have yet to be sold. No surprise that the value of those rights surged after the gold medal spectacle in Milano Cortina. While some questions remain, one thing is clear: fans are eager for meaningful international competition.

Should the All-Star Game Go?

Not everyone wants to get rid of the All-Star Game. The NHL can juggle the event with the 4 Nations or the World Cup. Rivalry series are also considered for the future. The audience is eager to see more matchups between national teams like the USA vs. Canada or Finland vs. Sweden. The appetite for classic hockey is real. And the NHL is determined to meet the public expectations at any cost.

Photo: Luke Miller via Pexels


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The FCC Wants to Eliminate Burner Phones

A proposed FCC rule would kill burner phones: phones whose accounts are not attached to a particular person.

The FCC plans to do this by legally forcing the country’s telecoms to store a wealth of personal information about essentially all phone customers, including a government issued identification number and their physical address, alarming privacy advocates and civil rights activists who compare the measures to those from authoritarian countries where it can be difficult to buy a mobile phone plan without giving up your identity.

The proposed change would drastically shake up how people obtain phone plans in the U.S., and have all sorts of privacy and cybersecurity knock-on effects. The FCC is proposing the data collection partly as a way to combat scammers, with telecoms being required to collect other information on business and foreign customers like the intended use case of their bulk phone plan purchase and their IP address. But the changes would mean telecoms collect data on all new and renewing customers, and the FCC provides a long list of other things that the collected data could help authorities with.

Alternate link.

‘Anthropic’s Safety Superpower’

Ben Thompson, in his weekly free column at Stratechery:

On one hand, I actually don’t begrudge Anthropic not wanting to help its competitors; on the other hand, what should be blisteringly clear is that Anthropic does not think that anyone else other than them should even be making frontier LLMs.

What makes this policy all the more remarkable is the fact that it was enacted only two months after Anthropic had that dispute with the Department of War: the latter wanted to use Claude for any legal use, while the former wanted more stringent controls around surveillance and autonomous weapons. What this degradation represented was both the capability and willingness of Anthropic to silently alter its models to achieve its policy preferences. In other words, Anthropic willfully validated some of its critics’ worst fears in terms of being a supply chain risk.

The broader takeaway from that previous episode, however, is that Anthropic believes that they are the ones who should have final say over how Anthropic is used; given that they think only they should be developing leading edge AI, they by extension think that only they should have final say over AI generally. When you further combine this realization with the company’s pronouncements about AI’s ability to conduct all economic activity, you realize that Anthropic’s leadership effectively wants to have power over everything and everyone.

Anthropic is best seen as a religious organization. Their employees are true believers in a cause, and on a mission. Perhaps every successful company has a religious aspect at its core — like, maybe, Apple’s is design quality and user-centricism, Microsoft’s is market share with no regard for technical or design elegance, Google’s is market share with high regard for technical elegance, and Meta’s is strip-mining the world’s social graph for profit. These companies tend to attract employees who believe in the company’s core mission, and the employees who believe tend to be the ones who thrive and rise within the companies’ ranks to positions of influence.

But Anthropic feels more like a real religion, where the core tenets must be taken on faith, and the priests (Anthropic employees) have a conviction about them. A religious fervor. If Apple gets too taken away by its cultural fervor for design, they do something silly like make a $20,000 solid gold Apple Watch. So what? If Microsoft or Google get taken away by their shared fervor for market share at all costs, they face antitrust remedies. A stifled market and abusive behavior from a monopolist isn’t good, but doesn’t end the world.

A religious fervor that believes the company is building god-like “super intelligence” that will dwarf human intelligence — and that only the company’s priesthood can be trusted to define, create, control, and gate access to it — is something else entirely. I tend to think the Anthropic true believers are all wet — that LLMs, amazing though they are, are not a path toward “super intelligence”. But, they used to be clearly behind OpenAI in technical capability, then caught up, and now with Mythos/Fable, they are clearly ahead. I still think they’re wrong about where this is heading, but I don’t think we can say we know they’re wrong.

 ★ 

Admin Hawks Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud … To Axios

A very odd nugget from Barak Ravid of Axios. Here’s the key passage in the lede …

CIA Director John Ratcliffe told President Trump and other senior officials that intelligence gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies raised serious doubts about Iran’s willingness to make the nuclear concessions the U.S. is seeking in any final deal, according to three sources familiar with those discussions.

The way the line reads you kind of get the idea that Iran isn’t playing straight with the US or won’t follow through on their commitments. But look what it actually says. The CIA doesn’t think Iran is willing to make the concessions the US is demanding in a negotiation that hasn’t taken place yet. I think the proper response to this is … well, probably not. That’s why they haven’t agreed to it already in the almost four months they’ve been negotiating with the US. If they were willing to do that they likely would have agreed to it since it could have stopped the war at almost any time and they haven’t.

It’s true that there are cases where a party may be unwilling to agree to a condition under duress (with bombs falling) that they might be willing to not under an active threat. But this is actually something unique to the Trumpist moment, where one side in an administration dispute is going public with the information that puts the lie to the president’s ruse.

If you go to war to achieve a specific end you don’t end the war before negotiating over that specific end. (The US has many declared ends in its war with Iran – proxies, missiles, etc. – but the nuclear program was always the most central.) You come to an agreement when you’re hand is strongest. The whole point of pushing the negotiation over nuclear weapons to after the conflict but making it seem like an agreement is somehow contained within the ceasefire isn’t a matter of really poor negotiating skills. It’s a ruse that both sides – Iran and the Trump White House – are tacitly cooperating on to give Trump an out to walk away from the war without achieving any of his war aims. In other words, this isn’t Iran outwitting him. (Or they’re not outwitting his negotiators at least.) It’s Trump and Iran agreeing to bamboozle the American people (or at least Trump’s supporters) so he can avoid reckoning with the psychic reality of his defeat and the electoral repercussions of taking the country to war with close to no public support and then screwing it up royally on top of that.

For what it’s worth, there’s still a non-trivial chance this will fall apart. But Trump’s hawks know what they’re doing pushing his failure to the foreground. It may create too much psychic strain, at which point he’ll sabotage the deal.

Trump’s ‘Deal’ Is Just Suing for Peace in a War He Lost Months Ago

We again have a possible ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran presented by President Trump as a deal to end the war he started back in February. It is a great victory, he claims. What we really have is a replay of a core feature of the spring and summer of 2026, as commentators and countries try to strip away the packaging and relentless razzmatazz from the White House and see what is really included in this deal. How much skepticism will the White House face since observers have been through maybe 1o or 20 cycles of this over the last four months?

And what’s in the deal this time?

As usual, the two countries remain cagey about what they agreed to. The Iranians — and some unnamed sources from other countries — are saying Iran is getting sanctions relief and maybe the release of funds that Iran will call reparations. Without some official discussion of the terms, let alone the terms themselves, there’s no way to be sure. But let’s set the sanctions relief and cash payments aside and assume it’s more or less what the White House is saying. Military action stops for at least 60 days. The Strait of Hormuz is reopened without tolls, and the U.S. calls off its blockade of Iranian oil. This is coupled with an agreement to continue negotiating about Iran’s nuclear program.

This is just the U.S. getting back the status quo ante before Trump launched his war. The US achieves none of its war aims. That should not surprise us because Iran has had the upper hand in these negotiations from the moment they closed the Strait. The structure of the deal seems mostly aimed at creating the illusion that some nuclear agreement, albeit not quite finalized, is part of it, and thus Trump got some real win that is just a bit over the horizon — don’t you worry!

It’s true that the U.S. and Iran do appear to agree to negotiate over its nuclear program as part of this deal. But they were doing that before the war started. So again that’s just the status quo ante. Trump and the White House say that Iran has agreed not to build a nuclear weapon. Again, that seems like a big concession. But again, that’s been Iran’s baseline position for more than 25 years. Whether you believe that or not is another matter. But them saying that is just restating their longstanding position. If anything is different, it’s that the U.S. does not have, at least in the short run, a credible threat of force to move those negotiations along. Is the U.S. going to relaunch the war and spur Iran to again close the Strait (which Iran can do again in response) before November? I doubt it. Trump is on Truth Social bragging that his deal is vastly superior to President Obama’s. But he has no agreement, either better or worse. So there’s literally no comparison. The claim is just a nesting egg of absurdity.

Based on what we know, this is the U.S. suing for peace and getting Iran to agree to hardly any concessions. It’s true that the U.S. has done a grievous level of damage to Iranian economic base (factories, infrastructure) and some real damage to its military. But Iran has now faced the full force of the U.S. military and survived and demonstrated its ability to close the strait and hobble the global economy at any time of its choosing. Those are major strategic victories.

The key dynamic since March has been that Trump’s negotiators have been able to negotiate for him a kind of Iran War mulligan, locking in his failure. But usually once the details come out and Trump has to face real discussion of his defeat he sabotages it or gets cold feet. So there’s a real chance that happens again. But again, even by the White House’s account — assuming there’s no cash payment component — this is the U.S. agreeing to end the war in exchange for nothing but going back to the way things were before Trump started the war. He achieves none of his objectives and managed to strengthen Iran in important and durable ways. It’s a total failure by any definition.

The European Commission Ruled Months Ago That Google’s Integration of Gemini in Android Violates the DMA

Ryan Whitham, writing for Ars Technica back in April:

European regulators are proposing several broad changes to the way AI tools operate on Android phones. Some of this is straightforward, like allowing third-party AI tools to be invoked system-wide via hot words or button presses. This might also include allowing AI tools to view screen context when the user opens them. Context also extends to allowing alternative AI systems to access local data to generate proactive suggestions and summaries. The report actually describes something that sounds like Google’s Magic Cue, which relies on Gemini to offer suggestions based on your activity.

Google has also started experimenting with allowing AI to control certain apps. As we saw when this feature debuted on the Galaxy S26, Gemini is currently pretty bad at using apps on your behalf. The commission wants to explore allowing other AI services to autonomously control installed apps and system features on Android phones. Maybe someone else could do better?

Maybe! But also maybe it’s a bad idea for complex system architecture design to come from non-technical government bureaucrats. One of these maybes strikes me as a lot more likely than the other.

Many of the Gemini AI features in Android, including Magic Cue, rely on running local models, and Google has been slow to allow third parties the system access to make that work effectively. So the EU is also suggesting a mandate that would ensure developers have the necessary hardware access to run local models “with high levels of performance, availability and responsiveness.”

What could go wrong?

Finally, Google may be required under the DMA to create new APIs and offer technical assistance to other AI makers who want to plug into Android. The commission also specifies that these tools must be made available free of charge.

Of course, it’s not free of charge to provide technical assistance to one’s competitors. It’s actually a great expense.

Here’s the European Commission, announcing these “preliminary findings”:

The proposed measures aim to ensure that competing AI services can effectively interact with applications on users’ Android devices and execute tasks accordingly, such as sending an email using the user’s preferred email app, ordering food or sharing a photo with friends. Currently, Google largely reserves these capabilities for use by its own AI offerings on Android phones and tablets. For example, the measures would allow competing AI services to be easily activated by users, using a custom ‘wake word’, a phrase that the user can speak to activate an AI service.

The proposed measures will also enable competing providers of AI services to innovate and offer deeply integrated AI experiences to users on Android phones and tablets, along with Alphabet’s own AI services, such as Gemini. Opening up access to these capabilities will provide Android users across the EU with a wider choice of AI services.

The difference between Google and Apple on this front is that Google just blazed ahead and shipped Gemini integrated into Android in the EU, and is now facing compliance problems after shipping. (Ask forgiveness.) Apple isn’t shipping Siri AI in the EU in iOS 27, knowing that it’s going to be deemed non-compliant. (Ask permission.)

The EC presumes that these measures “will also enable competing providers of AI services to innovate and offer deeply integrated AI experiences to users on Android phones and tablets”. Again: maybe! But really all they can enforce is that “competing providers of AI services” will have the same level of system-level integration that Google’s AI services have. The easiest way for Google to achieve that is by withdrawing Gemini integration in Android from the EU, not by building APIs and privacy protection mechanisms to enable the capabilities for third-party providers that the EC is demanding.

Google is learning the lesson Apple learned the hard way with all the existing features of iOS that were deemed noncompliant with the DMA when it went into effect. The “ship it first and ask forgiveness / hope it’s deemed compliant” strategy is not a good one in the EU.

 ★ 

WorkOS Launches Auth.md — an Open Protocol for Agent Registration

My thanks to WorkOS for sponsoring DF last week to promote Auth.md, their new open protocol for AI agent registration.

Sign-up forms were built for humans in browsers, so how do AI agents programmatically register with services? That’s the question Auth.md aims to answer. By exposing a single, machine-readable Markdown file at your service root, AI agents can dynamically discover your OAuth Protected Resource Metadata, parse required scopes, and authenticate seamlessly.

Markdown, baby. Who’d have thunk it?

With native support in WorkOS AuthKit, you can now implement this protocol out of the box, giving AI tools a standardized, secure way to log into your application. Read the Auth.md docs, and watch its on-stage introduction at the MCP Night: Agent Night keynote.

 ★ 

Meet the world’s top AI-pilled economists

Most of them are not found in ivory towers

Links 6/15/26

Links for you. Science:

The Cancer Research Machine Trump Is Gutting Just Delivered a Big Breakthrough
A personalized vaccine for melanoma cut the risk of cancer returning after five years
Trump Administration to Dismantle Ocean Monitoring System
A cancer vaccine made just for you. mRNA is back and it’s fighting melanoma
President Trump seeks control of science funding
No red meat, no dairy, and no end in sight: How a tick-borne allergy has transformed Martha’s Vineyard
Neanderthals Ate Flies, New Study Reveals

Other:

The Data Center Bankshot
From Nazi-hugging Greg Bovino to the Supreme Court, the hood is coming off MAGA
ICE to stop reporting deaths of newly released detainees, internal memo says
Lawmakers promised cancer patients would be protected from Medicaid cuts. Now CMS says otherwise
Trump officials planned to mark 2.7 million living people as dead, whistleblower says
What’s Really Behind Peter Thiel’s Panicked Move to Argentina
Long criticized by conservatives, this federal agency has transformed under Trump. The National Endowment for the Humanities has shifted its grant-making to align with the president’s cultural agenda, rankling the scholarly establishment.
Graham Platner and the Rise of White-Male Identity Politics
For women, Platner vs. Collins is a tough choice because of abortion rights
The District 12 Candidate Nobody Is Talking About
‘Dad, the IDF Hates Secular Jews’
This lobster boat captain from Down East quit Platner’s campaign, but hasn’t left it behind
4 surprising ways AI is making your life more expensive
Democrats Need A Vibecession Safe Space
How Durable is Muskism?
Jake Tapper investigating possibility that Joe Biden will be 84 in November
They Want to Get Rid of Your Property Taxes Because They Think You Are Morons
Punk-Ass Loser Nick Bilton Fires Scott Pelley For Daring To Ask Him Questions
To Trump, ‘the cognitive’ affirms his right to rule unchallenged
Boring Dunce Nick Bilton Hounded Out Of First Meeting With ’60 Minutes’ Staffers
Is It Irresponsible To Speculate? It Would Be Irresponsible Not To
Why Did The Brewers’ VP Of Communications Retweet This Racist Crap?
The COVID Amnesia Project: Erasing Your Free Will to Preserve the Fantasy of the Optional Pandemic
The Candidate Who Wants to Ban Data Centers: ‘This Screams Financial Crisis’–”I just have alarm bells going off in my head,” says former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau staffer Alexis Goldstein
Fascism Is a Scavenger, Not a Hunter: We Can and Must Defend the UK’s Sikhs
ICE Says Detainees Are ‘Worst of the Worst.’ Government Data Disagrees.
Gay CECOT survivor rebuilds his life in Spain while speaking up for voiceless immigrants in America
Kennedy Center loses suit against artist who canceled after Trump name change
How Trump Is Making the Federal Judiciary White Again
Amazon Shuts Down Internal AI Leaderboard After Employees Cheated

Trump Threatens to End D.C.’s Home Rule If Its Colonial Subjects Elect Someone He Doesn’t Like

Il Trumpe uttered this (boldface mine):

President Donald Trump threatened to invoke the Home Rule Act to take over Washington, D.C., depending on the results of next week’s mayoral primary….

On Thursday, Trump was asked about next Tuesday’s Democratic mayoral primary election. D.C. Councilmember Janeese Lewis George, a democratic socialist, is considered the frontrunner.

Lewis George leads the latest polling by 11% over former councilmember Kenyan McDuffie….

When asked how he’d feel if Lewis George were to win Tuesday’s primary, Trump said that he “wouldn’t like it.”

Well, I wouldn’t like it, and maybe we’ll take back Washington and run it on the federal basis,” Trump said. “We won’t put up with it. We’re not going to lose our business.”

…”We’re not going to get ICE off our streets by fearing this president,” Lewis George said. “And we’re not going to protect our rights or home rule by obeying in advance. Threatening home rule because you do not like how residents vote is an attack on democracy itself. The people of DC elect the mayor of DC. And they want someone who will stand up to Donald Trump.”

This only helps Lewis George, I think, especially along side with the Arkansas National Guard taking D.C. trophies. That said, Trump also might have forgotten he said this by now–”We’re not going to lose our business” is a nonsense statement, so who knows with that asshole.

Germany fact of the day sentence to ponder

Champions of a European AI model should ask themselves if a European effort would be more effective than Meta, which this year will spend more on chips ($125 billion) than Germany spends on defense ($114 billion) and offer salaries of over $100 million to attract the best researchers, and is still failing to catch up.

Here is more from Pieter Garicano and Simon Grimm.  Via Jesper.

The post Germany fact of the day sentence to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Here’s The Rub: We Don’t Believe You

Welcome, new leader. We’re glad that you are here. Your arrival fills a critical vacancy in our team, and we can’t wait to see what you can do at this company. We’re going to say that we’re not in a hurry and you should take your time, but we’re in a hurry.

Before you arrive, we’re going to tell you what we think needs to be fixed. You should listen to us, but the issue is that we probably don’t know what is broken. Either we’re too busy to notice, or we’re too close to the source material. We wrote the current script, so we’re required to believe it is good. It’s not. It’s a disaster, and it’s breaking, and we need you to investigate, and then to tell us what’s wrong.

Here’s the rub. We’re not going to believe you when you tell us. If that all feels like a trap, it’s not — it’s just senior leadership.

Hi, Rands here. I’m not typically this prescriptive, as every individual, team, and company has different values and culture. Thing is: everything I include in the checklist is a tactic I’ve used at wildly different companies for the past twenty years. This might say more about me than the teams and companies, but they also work.

Recurring 1:1s with Inner Circle

No surprise here. I’ve been preaching 1:1s for years. Within a few weeks, you should have 1:1s with all of your direct reports and your boss. You should also have a sense of what type of 1:1 works for each of them. There are humans who prefer a wandering, casual conversation, and those who want to know precisely what topics will be discussed beforehand.

The goal for this meeting is to establish a consistent weekly meeting that is a safe place to discuss topics of note. These are issues, questions, or discussions where the two of you can seek understanding. These topics can show up as part of casual conversation, but I like to get in the habit of sharing these beforehand with a bit of context as to the intent. I use a 1:1 Slack channel for this, but any medium works; the content is less important than everyone involved knowing this meeting happens every week, no matter what.

Here’s the rub. Your 1:1 list as a senior leader is bigger than direct reports and immediate leadership; your 1:1 list includes the entire ecosystem of humans who support your team in getting the job done.

Who?

Sorry, the list varies wildly depending on company, culture, and that moment in time, but there is an essential and non-obvious set of other humans who require as much investment as your team and your boss. Most of these humans will be names that you just keep hearing. Sarah this. Sarah that. No one is saying, “You should spend time with Sarah,” but Sarah is clearly in the team’s bloodstream, and it’s your job to figure out why.

My default move in the first three months — and it’s an expensive one — is, “Always schedule 1:1 time.” Possible learnings from this meeting include:

  • This is a human with some juicy signal about the state of our teams — keep meeting.
  • This is a human who has a signal that I have already heard — don’t meet again.
  • This is a human whom I sure like, but who doesn’t really have signal — don’t meet again, have lunch occasionally. You never know.

You’ll know it’s working when you find a mystery. I found one on the second weekend at my third start-up. Ryan wasn’t the first engineering leader to raise the topic, but he did ask the question, “How are we promoting engineers fairly?” We weren’t was the unfortunate eventual answer. Promotion was left up to the engineering manager’s discretion, with a meaningless gut check by senior leadership. They still acted like it was twelve people in temporary space, but there were over one hundred engineers, and we were on track to double in the next year.

Extended Staff Meeting

Of course, you’re doing a Staff meeting. Getting all your directs together for the weekly breaking of the professional bread? A quick metrics review followed by a set of team-supplied discussions with a compelling chase of Gossip, Rumors, and Lies. Unlike 1:1s, I’m not going to regurgitate my thoughts on the necessity of Staff meetings.

Here’s the rub: you need another meeting, the Extended Staff Meeting, which you need to have in place by your second month. Required attendees for your Staff meeting are obvious: your direct reports. Maybe you’ll have special guests who are critical support from across the team, and maybe those folks will be regulars. Go for it. No more than ten 1

Required attendees for your Extended Staff are:

  • Everyone we just defined for Staff.
  • Every manager in your organization. (Yes, every single one)
  • Every leader in your organization — keep reading.

That last bullet is a slippery one, but before I explain how to select these folks, let me explain what is happening in this meeting. Yes, a lot more people than your Staff meeting. Yes, you’ll need to present more than discuss, but this is not your All Hands; this is still a meeting, and discussion is required.

In your 1:1s, you’ve been discovering mysteries, and this venue (and your Staff meeting) is the place to discuss and refine these mysteries. Are we promoting fairly? Do we have a quality issue? Are the robots taking over? The point isn’t to solve the mystery; the point is to explore the mystery. In order for this discussion to be productive, all leaders need to be included.

You can’t have every single person in the Extended Staff (that’s All Hands); you need to draw the line somewhere, but in my experience, a pure manager meeting can turn into a manager-echo-chamber where everyone starts agreeing with each other because of the chain of command. You need someone who is going to say the hard thing, which is why you need a selection of senior leaders from the team. Your most senior engineers? Sure. Longest tenured humans? Maybe. Some easy-to-define and explain slice of leaders who don’t have the management title.

You’ll know it’s working when someone in Extended Staff points out something terrible about one of your mysteries. It’s hard to make these up, but it’s easy to imagine when they show because it’s like getting punched in the face. You are instantly and forever changed by the comment, and, again, it usually shows up from an unexpected someone who many think should not be in the room.

But they are there. And they say it. And what was a mystery is now a critical problem. And it’s your job to fix it.

All Hands

It’s your third month. You have a reliable set of recurring inner circle 1:1s. Your Staff meeting is a weekly event. You’ve had two or three Extended Staff meetings at this point, and now you’re ready for the Main Event, which isn’t actually the Main Event.

Your All Hands includes your entire team, and the agenda for this first one is straightforward:

  1. Hi, this is who I am.
  2. This is who I’ve spoken with, and this is what I’ve discovered: both good and bad. It’s very enticing to focus on the bad because that is where you need to invest, but highlighting the good gives you credibility points — He has a full awareness of what’s up — which you are going to need later when you start tearing stuff down.
  3. And, most importantly, this is what I’m going to do about the bad stuff.

I’m not going to say a lot more about the All Hands because there’s a chapter in the new book. If you already followed my advice on 1:1s, Staff, and Extended Staff, then this meeting is more performance than content. You’ve already clearly identified the critical mysteries, and it’s not the point of this article to define how you might address the issues. This article is about building communication structures, and your All Hands is mostly a one-way report to the team. Be sure to:

  • Give them a reason to show up — donuts are a surprisingly cheap way to improve attendance. Also, delicious.
  • Keep the presentation tight — practice a lot, practice in front of people who will give you feedback, practice some more.
  • When you declare what you’re going to do about it, clearly define when you (or your team) will be following up with status.

Here’s The Rub

Third start-up. I’d been hired as the VP of Engineering. The prior fellow had a rough go at it. Deeply technical, but unable to communicate his vision to his peers and his team. My read was that it ended poorly, and when I arrived, everyone was rattled by his exit.

First VP gig. Prior occupant — it didn’t go well. My instinct. Learn everything, and until you know everything, lie low. When someone asks, “What’s your vision?” tell them, “I’m still learning.”

Month two. The co-founder, who I was sure was the reason I was hired in the first place, pulled me aside, ashen-faced, and told me, “You gotta start talking.”

Me: “Why? I’m still figuring this place out.”

Him: “We’re wondering if we made the right move with you.”

Six. Weeks. The company had been around for seven years at this point. There were 110 engineers and a wildly successful product with a commensurate amount of absolute chaos. I could see potential brokenness, but I was still gathering signal.

I scrambled. The good news is that I had already done everything I described above. Mysteries had turned into heinous problems, and I had vetted solutions with people I was beginning to trust. Got the All Hands on the books, practiced, practiced some more, and then show time. Laughs at the right time. Claps, too. Appropriate solemn silence when I described what was fundamentally broken. A success.

How did I know? Because the CEO walked up to me after the All Hands, grimacing. Uh oh

Him — synthesized: “A good assessment, but I don’t see the problems you describe. I see the problems I can see. You should focus on the problems I can see.”

A front-line manager’s job is to take the time to understand and adapt to the current situation. For a new senior leader, you are the situation. Chances are, your boss and your senior peers are in the middle of it. They are smack dab in the center of the chaos, and while their perspective is relevant, it’s blurred by history and chaos. One of your immense fading advantages as the new senior leader at the table is that you have no history in this current chaos, yet. You have fresh perspective that has not been beaten into submission by the chaos.

It’s no one else’s job but yours to fix what ails your team. No one is going to give you permission.

And you’ll know it’s working when they don’t believe you.

  1. More than ten? Time for a reorganization, sorry.


Why More Households Are Turning to Professional Organizers

For years, getting organized was treated as a weekend chore—something you powered through with a few storage bins and good intentions. That’s changing. Across the country, and especially in busy metro areas like Washington, D.C., professional organizing has shifted from a niche luxury to a service that households actively seek out. The reasons say a lot about how we live now.

A Perfect Storm of Clutter

Several trends have converged to push organizing into the mainstream. We own more than previous generations did, and online shopping has made acquiring things effortless. At the same time, remote and hybrid work has collapsed the boundary between home and office, turning spare rooms, dining tables, and closets into workspaces that never fully reset. Popular streaming shows centered on decluttering and home transformation have reframed organizing as aspirational rather than embarrassing—and made it something people feel comfortable hiring help for.

The result is a growing recognition that disorganization isn’t a character flaw or a time-management failure. It’s a byproduct of modern life, and like many things, it benefits from professional expertise.

More Than Tidy Shelves

The deeper shift is in how people understand what organizing actually does. A well-run home isn’t just about appearances. It affects how a household functions day to day, how much mental energy gets spent searching for things, and how calm a space feels to come home to.

That’s the perspective Gillian Economou brings to her work. As the founder of Sort It Out, a professional organizing company serving Washington, D.C., Northern Virginia, and Maryland, she’s watched demand grow alongside this changing mindset.

“An organized home is the foundation of a peaceful life,” said Gillian Economou, Founder of Sort It Out. “People don’t call us because they want prettier shelves—they call because they’re tired of the daily friction. Decision fatigue is real, and a well-designed space removes dozens of those small, draining decisions before they ever happen.”

That emphasis on function over perfection is increasingly what clients are looking for. The goal isn’t a magazine-ready pantry that falls apart in a week; it’s a system that a real family can actually maintain.

“The systems have to fit the person, not the other way around,” said Economou. “Anyone can fill a space with matching bins. The harder—and more important—work is creating something that still makes sense six months later, when life has gotten busy again.”

Who’s Hiring Organizers Now?

The client base has broadened well beyond what many people picture. Busy professionals, dual-income families, and people navigating major life transitions—a move, a downsizing, a new baby, the estate of a parent—make up a large share of the work. In markets like the D.C. metro area, that also includes executives, entrepreneurs, and high-profile families who value discretion as much as the results themselves.

Life transitions in particular drive demand. Moving is consistently ranked among the most stressful experiences a household can go through, and the logistics of packing, unpacking, and setting up a new home are exactly the kind of high-effort, time-sensitive work that professionals can absorb.

Economou added; “So much of our work happens around change—a move, a renovation, a new chapter. Those are the moments when clutter feels the heaviest and time feels the shortest. Having someone manage that process lets people focus on the transition itself instead of drowning in boxes.

Beyond Decluttering: The Specialized Services Driving Demand

One reason the field has matured is that “professional organizing” now covers a range of distinct, specialized services—each addressing a different pain point. Much of the recent growth comes from these higher-touch offerings rather than basic tidying.

Packing and unpacking. Packing is tedious, and doing it badly creates problems on the other end. Professional packing brings a system to the process: rooms are inventoried, fragile items are protected properly, and boxes are labeled so unpacking isn’t a guessing game. On arrival, unpacking services do far more than empty boxes—organizers set up kitchens, closets, and living spaces with functional systems in place from day one, so a new house feels like home in days instead of months.

Move management. For larger or more complex relocations, move management acts as a single point of coordination across the entire process—planning the timeline, overseeing packing and logistics, and handling the setup of the new space. It’s especially valuable for clients juggling demanding careers, families with little spare time, or anyone who simply doesn’t want a move to consume their lives. The organizer absorbs the logistical weight so the household doesn’t have to.

Downsizing and life transitions. Downsizing is often the most emotionally delicate work, frequently tied to retirement, a move to a smaller home, or helping an aging parent. It calls for patience and a respectful pace alongside the practical work of deciding what stays, what’s donated, and what’s passed on to family. A good organizer makes those decisions feel manageable rather than overwhelming.

With downsizing especially, we’re not just sorting belongings—we’re helping people honor a chapter of their life while making room for the next one,” said Economou. “That deserves patience, not a stopwatch. Our job is to make a hard process feel calm and respectful.”

Taken together, these services explain why households increasingly see organizers as essential partners during the moments that matter most—not just a once-a-year cleanup crew.

A More Thoughtful, Sustainable Approach

Today’s professional organizing also reflects a broader cultural awareness around consumption and waste. Rather than simply hauling unwanted belongings to the curb, many organizers now prioritize donating, recycling, and repurposing items so they stay out of landfills and back in the community where possible. For a lot of clients, knowing their excess is being responsibly rehomed is part of the appeal.

Organizing As A Lasting Foundation

Professional organizing has grown up. What was once seen as an indulgence is now a practical investment in time, mental clarity, and a smoother-running home. As our lives get busier and our spaces work harder, the value of an expert who can design systems that genuinely last only becomes clearer.

For households in the D.C. region exploring that step, firms like Sort It Out offer a sense of where the field is headed—organizing not as a one-time cleanup, but as a lasting foundation for everyday living.

Want to learn more about professional organizing services in Washington, D.C., Northern Virginia, and Maryland? Visit Sort It Out.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZER SERVICES

What does a professional organizer do?

A professional organizer helps individuals and families create systems to manage belongings, reduce clutter, improve efficiency, and maintain organized living spaces.

Why are more people hiring professional organizers?

Many households face increased clutter, busy schedules, remote work challenges, and major life transitions, making professional organizing a practical solution.

Is professional organizing only for people with clutter problems?

No. Professional organizers work with busy professionals, families, executives, and anyone looking to improve the functionality and efficiency of their home.

What is move management?

Move management is a service that helps coordinate packing, logistics, unpacking, and home setup during a relocation to reduce stress and save time.

Can professional organizers help with downsizing?

Yes. Many organizers specialize in downsizing, helping clients sort belongings, make decisions about what to keep, and navigate major life transitions with less stress.


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Revised rules of engineering leadership.

From early 2014 through late 2020, I was working in hypergrowth environments, which are challenging, but also educational. The most valuable feature of hypergrowth is that your mistakes reveal themselves next month rather than next year, because things go wrong very loudly when you’re moving fast. I’ve been thinking a lot about hypergrowth recently, because Imprint’s business is growing quickly and we did a large batch of hiring last year, but also because the AI-tooling shift has changed the pace at which it’s possible to work.

This post documents the new rules I’ve revised my approach to engineering leadership around, and then talks through the specific projects I’ve worked on over the past year that caused me to believe in these rules.

Revised rules

  1. Migrations can be done by an individual rather than a team. Even complex, large changes can be 95% owned by the driving individual or team, and done in 10% of the time. As the initial cost of migrations goes down, the reward/penalty of each migration’s quality goes up: even small sharp edges will break your colleagues’ mental models about the software you co-maintain. The impact of individual judgment on your company has never been higher.

  2. While 1st-pass code is nearly free, the cost of working code depends on your development harness, and is not free. We’re in an era when many companies say that everyone should be writing code, however our experience is that writing code that works well, while avoiding messy edgecases, remains difficult. Just how difficult remains a factor of your development harness, e.g. your tests, CI/CD, validation environments, preview-ability of changes, and so on. While I personally don’t imagine it’s valuable for most folks at a company to be contributing code, I suspect that most disagreement about that topic is actually a miscommunication: even at a company where “everyone codes”, the marketing team isn’t reducing allocations in your servers, instead it’s about whether there is a safe boundary where they can participate. (Much like a SaaS product that allows customization by writing software.)

    The good news is that this means the things that were most valuable to speed up engineering two years ago are still the things that are most valuable to speed them up today.

  3. Optimize the base-case of process for agents. Most steps of most processes can be fully automated in most cases. With the right harnesses, the right controls, domain context, and good judgment in their designers, you can fully automate the base-case of most processes in modern technology companies. For example, the base case of code review from a human is slower and less effective than a good harness’ code review. Of course, the harness will miss things, but so will human reviewers, and most areas are relatively safe to make changes. Of course, there are some higher risk areas, where this doesn’t hold true. By effectively capturing these distinctions properly, we can go much faster without introducing risk. By failing to capture these distinctions, we’ll create innumerable problems for ourselves.

    As a corollary, I think most planning processes like weekly or bi-weekly sprints are operating at too low an altitude. Humans planning together still matters, but should be operating at a higher level.

  4. Durable, high-ownership teams with domain-context are even more important. One of my biggest lessons at Uber was that persistent, durable teams work magic by accumulating domain-context, building a sense of camaraderie, and feeling an increasingly strong sense of ownership over an area as they continue to work in it. Even in an era where specifically doing something is much cheaper, you still have to do the right thing, which has gotten a bit easier but not much easier, and structural improvements help address this. (As a recent example of that, we had an issue in production where the necessary data to optimize it simply wasn’t being captured at all, so the harness’ ideas to solve it were reasonable but wrong, since the only real path forward was instrumenting the missing information.)

    As a specific disagreement, there’s a prevailing idea that AI-first companies will be run by a small number of genius engineers who create perfect versions of things one by one, doing such a good job that there’s nothing to maintain. This is a very compelling vision, but I don’t see it happening. High judgment individuals can wander across a company doing remarkable things, but at some point they do get hemmed in by lack of domain context, which is why durable teams are the fundamental building block, even in this era.

  5. Quick, good, and durable decision-making is a prerequisite to meaningfully benefit from AI. Being able to replace a legal review with automation only works if Legal can commit to that change, which depends on designing the automation thoughtfully, and also the teams’ willingness to collaborate. Implementing a new feature is only valuable if you can decide to launch that feature.

    Your team and company can only benefit from this increased pace of execution if you can make durable decisions quickly, and those decisions are good. This is the primary reason, in my opinion, why the average CTO role has necessarily become substantially more technical and less bureaucratic than a year ago. In many cases, I am the only person who can make binding decisions when teams disagree on the path forward, and that means I am making decisions constantly in this new world in order to maintain the pace. (That’s not an argument that executives are better decision makers, just that binding executive decisions are uniquely powerful to the extent that the executives themselves are aligned enough to honor those decisions.)

What have we done in practice

So, I genuinely believe the above rules based on my experiences over the past year, and let me try to connect them to specific projects we’ve worked on that have convinced me of them:

  1. Migrations
    1. A year ago, we deployed manually, and deployed ~6 times a week, and now we deploy 200-400 times a week. Our engineering headcount has doubled, but even if we double the prior deploys, we’re still up 20-30x year-over-year. This is due to a complete overhaul of how we deploy and run migrations, and this migration was done over two months and done 90% by two folks on our infrastructure team.
    2. The first day of January, about 25% of folks on our team used Claude Code or Cursor every day. By the end of February, 100% did. We did this without any top-down mandate, just by making the tooling good and chatting with non-adopters to remove sources of friction. Pretty much every PR is written by harnesses now, at least in the first pass.
    3. We migrated from a large number of varied configuration mechanisms to two configuration mechanisms (one for client or server constants that rarely change, a second for product-specific or frequently changing values). This was a large series of changes, which were largely done as a series of isolated projects by individual engineers. First, one engineer cleaned up the architecture to support this approach. Then another engineer did a reference architecture on the new approach. Then several more engineers followed the reference architecture in other areas of our codebase. This might have been a years long project of many people in the prior world, but took less than a quarter to complete, including a new internal tool for managing these values across engineering and non-engineer teams.
    4. We unified a multi-repo frontend application architecture into a mono-repo frontend architecture over about a month. This was 95% driven by one frontend engineer. We now have a shared frontend development harness, can maintain libraries cheaply, and entirely moved off using npm for package hosting, which was a source of ongoing friction.
    5. We fully statically typed our frontend code, going from a place where the majority of our frontend code was not typed. This was done by one engineer, and a lot of tokens, over the course of a few weeks.
    6. We migrated from npm to pnpm for better security defaults and faster deploys. This took one engineer a few hours a day for a few days.
  2. Cost of working code depends on your development harness.
    1. Where we’ve tried to throw design documents and PRs “over the wall” to engineers on other teams, they’ve never gone anywhere. Slop pull requests and design documents are cheap, but are actively harmful. They not only have to be cleaned up and repaired, their context poisons the LLM, leading to worse outcomes than starting over.
    2. We’ve seen tremendous success in managers contributing software, as long as those managers are validating the work directly, looking at dashboards after their changes go out, and resolving any issues their changes cause. We’ve found no positive impact from folks attempting to make changes where they don’t do those things.
  3. Optimize the base-case of process for agents.
    1. We triage all incoming issues from our customer operations team using a harness which knows our team, our open tickets, and has limited access to our data warehouse to size the impact of issues. This is complex, high-skill but not particularly interesting labor that we’re now doing better and faster with agents. Yes, there is still a human triage for the edgecases. Importantly, we’re also doing this without changing human workflows, it’s the same workflow, just with some steps automated.
    2. The first pass of code review is done by the same harness that implements the changes, cleared of the context used to write the change, allowing humans to focus on higher value feedback.
    3. We rolled out Claude Code and Cowork to all folks in the company last quarter, and have seen them also automate an increasingly large swath of their work as well. Our fraud team has been particularly ambitious in replacing manual workflows with a first-pass of automation–with attribution to the data itself–to do the initial investigation on potential attacks automatically.
    4. We’ve migrated to Linear, and off Jira, to better support this workflow with a more capable MCP and better Slack integration, making it possible for everyone internally to have better infrastructure for building these agent-first workflows. More on this later, but we’re almost done alpha-testing our internal harness pulling issues off Linear, and working to resolve them, automatically which is our biggest next step in this direction.
  4. Durable, high ownership teams with domain-context are even more important.
    1. When I joined, we had a number of areas supported by very talented folks who rotated through them quickly on a per-project basis. This worked, but it meant we were very reactive to issues. Now, we’ve been able to dedicate at least a small team to every important area of the company, where they are able to persistently invest. These teams are now wielding all the new techniques afforded by AI themselves. Without them, no one would be capturing these opportunities, because there is simply too much happening.
    2. We launched SierraAI, which is quite good, but since then the team has iterated on it relentlessly, getting it truly excellent. This is something we wouldn’t have been able to do without a dedicated, focused team.
  5. Quick, good and durable decision making is a prerequisite to benefit from AI.
    1. Changing how we do configuration was a controversial decision, and I’ve had to make repeated clarifications on the approach. This would have been very difficult to do bottom-up, because it impacts every team differently, and the benefit is only experienced at the ecosystem-level (allowing one person to configure all configuration across teams).
    2. Reworking our CI/CD pipeline was controversial, as it changed many folks’ mental models of how we deploy and release (e.g., it forced us to explicitly decouple deploy and release via feature flagging). This was a contentious decision, and would have been slow and difficult to make bottom-up.
    3. Unifying into a web mono-repo was also a controversial decision with varied opinions. It benefitted greatly from having a unified decision.
    4. Moving to SierraAI was a difficult discussion versus both various competitors, and also not doing it. It needed the executive stamp to finalize the cross-functional debate.

These are just representative examples, we’ve done a lot more than these. The aperture of what’s possible has continued to expand every month this year, but the things holding us back haven’t changed all that much: organizational misalignment, lack of clarity, and poor technical architecture. It’s a wild time to be working in technology.

Tethys

In order to carry the necessary crafting supplies, they built the ships at 12:1 scale.

Monday assorted links

1. A survey on slow Mexican economic growth.

2. Jason Furman on Social Security (NYT).

3. Markets in everything, customized water edition.

4. AI progress in Rio de Janeiro.

5. Satya Nadella does Oliver Williamson.

6. A shared feed of my guest appearances.

7. Results on the Great Recession and U.S. fertility.

8. Nice words about me.

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Horsemeat, Prostitution and Kidney Sales, interview by Peter Coy

 Peter Coy interviewed me about Moral Economics for his substack Economics for Everyone.

You can find the video and the transcript at this link: 

Horsemeat, Prostitution and Kidney Sales  by Peter Coy 
"Nobel laureate Al Roth tackles them all in a fine new book. I interviewed him."

"I asked Roth if he’s a libertarian, since libertarians say people should be free to do what they want as long as it doesn’t hurt others. No, Roth told me.

“People who call themselves libertarians often don’t like market regulation of any sort, but I’m a market designer,” Roth said. “I think that good regulations help markets work well.”

 ############ 

 Peter C. interviewd me once before:

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Kidney exchange (and other bits of market design) in the New York Times

Peter Coy, the veteran New York Times economics columnist, writes about kidney exchange, after an interview/conversation sparked by a recent working paper of mine, Market Design and Maintenance. (He's a rare economic journalist who reads economists' papers.)

Here's his column, published yesterday afternoon:

The Economist Who Helped Patients Get New Kidneys, Feb. 5, 2024, 3:00 p.m. ET, By Peter Coy

He's also a rare interviewer: his column includes the names of more of my coauthors than I can recall in any other interview. In order of appearance: Tayfun Sonmez and Utku Unver, Frank Delmonico, Susan Saidman, Mike Rees (implicitly) when he names Mike's nonprofit Alliance for Paired Kidney Donation, and Elliott Peranson.  Market design is, after all, a team sport."

 

Republic of Ireland (China) fact of the day

Sam Enright emails me:

In the most recent census (2022), 1,017,437 people in Ireland were born abroad. Even if you classify people from Taiwan as “foreigners”, there are 845,697 + 157,886 = 1,003,583 immigrants to China. There are now more foreigners in Ireland than in China in absolute terms, despite having a population that is 260 times smaller.

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I Get Duped into Buying an AI Slop Book

Back in 2024, I learned that somebody was trying to steal my readers with an AI book. Chatbots were still a a new thing, but I was already a victim. And it’s only gotten worse since then—AI slop is now flooding the market for books, music, images, podcasts, and every other creative field.

I thought I was smart enough to avoid it. But this week I got tricked into buying a slop book.

Here’s the back story: I’m excited about the World Cup, but want to improve my knowledge of the leading teams and players. So I ordered a book online that promised to be the “ultimate insider’s guide.”

When it arrived, I opened up the package to find a shoddy booklet that looked like it had been printed on a home computer. The illustrations were almost certainly AI generated. And the last eight pages were just blank lined paper—so the reader could take “notes” on the games.

But the text itself was the giveaway.

This book I purchased on the World Cup was listed as having 96 pages—but eight of them look like this.

Please support my work by taking out a premium subscription—for just $6 per month (even less if you sign up for a year).

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Here is opening of the Introduction:

The FIFA World Cup is not merely a sporting competition. It is the heartbeat of a planet that stops, holds it breath, and exhales in euphoric unison once every four years. From its humble beginnings in 1930 to the colossal globe-spanning spectacle it has become today, no event on earth gathers more eyeballs, more passion, or more raw human emotion than the World Cup. Entire economies pivot on its results. Lifelong friendships are forged in stadium queues. Children in São Paulo, Lagos, Tokyo, and Manchester fall asleep dreaming of the exact same trophy….

It goes on and on in that vein, page after page—filled with empty pretentious phrases and vague generalizations. In the entire book, there isn’t a single thing I found of value—none of the insights and analysis I’d sought.

Read more

Our neighbors, the peacocks

Photo of a peacock with its feathers fanned out standing in front of the white gate of a suburban home.

A portrait of the pristine suburb of Arcadia, where hundreds of feral peacocks are embraced by some, despised by others

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Therapy for billionaires

Black and white photo of a smiling person holding a sleeping baby on a beach, with sand visible in the background.

As my grandfather’s money taught, wealth can be a poison. The rich must reckon with its costs to recover their humanity

- by Alexa Clay

Read on Aeon

Who Leads? Relative Age Effects on Social Capital

A fascinating paper and result:

This paper studies the causal effect of being the oldest within a school cohort on social capital. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and data from Facebook, we find that boys who are older than their classmates make 11% more friends in high school. This social advantage is associated with leadership roles, with relatively older boys 42% more likely to become class president than their relatively younger peers. Men who were relatively older during childhood have larger social networks in adulthood, and disproportionately sort into management and entrepreneurship. Our findings suggest that small age differences in peer composition can have persistent effects on social and economic outcomes.

That is from Matthew Jacob of Harvard and Michael Bailey of Facebook.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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Related Stories

 

General-purpose large language models outperform specialized clinical AI tools on medical benchmarks

This result does not surprise me at all.  Here is part of the abstract:

Frontier LLMs outperformed clinical AI tools in all three evaluations. Clinical AI tools performed comparably to auto-enabled Google Search AI Overview on the RCQ. These findings highlight the need for independent, real-world evaluation of AI tools before they enter clinical settings.

From Krithik Viswanath, et.al.  As a side note, this (and the more general version of the point) is one big reason why some fairly large number of Emergent Ventures proposals are rejected rather quickly.

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Pumice Rafts Encroach on Admiralty Islands

Bands of tan-colored pumice float on the Bismarck Sea near several islands and bright-blue shallow areas. The material lines the southern coast of the largest island.
June 4, 2026

On May 8, 2026, satellites detected signs of an unexpected submarine volcanic eruption in the Bismarck Sea near the islands of Papua New Guinea. Over the next several weeks, plumes of steam and ash streamed over the sea, and areas of discolored water surrounded the eruption site. Relatively little is known about the ocean floor in this area or the volcanic feature that is presently erupting. But experts think the new activity, ongoing as of mid-June, might be occurring along the Titan Ridge and has the potential to form an ephemeral new island.

Despite the unknowns, the effects of the eruption became unmistakable for some communities in Papua New Guinea’s Admiralty Islands. In early June, rafts of pumice drifted northwest from the eruption site and clogged up coastlines on several of the islands. Bands of the buoyant volcanic material are visible in this image, acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 on June 4, as they drifted with surface currents on the Bismarck Sea.  

Several days after the image, news outlets reported acute impacts from thick masses of pumice reaching coastal areas. Communities on Lou Island and Baluan Island, to the south, were described by officials as among the worst affected, according to reports from local media. Outlets reported that a layer of pumice up to several meters thick blanketed the shore, cutting off access to the water. The volcanic fragments similarly choked the coast and key waterways around the much larger Manus Island, about 125 kilometers (80 miles) northwest of the volcano and out of frame.

A bright-white volcanic plume and an area of greenish water extend to the northwest from an underwater eruption.
A submarine volcano produces a plume of discolored water and vents steam into the air in an image acquired on June 4, 2026, with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8. Pumice is visible near the base of the plume and exhibits a thermal signature in infrared imagery.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Studies of past pumice raft events have found that the material can remain afloat for months to years before sinking out of satellite view. Larger rafts can form with the help of ash, which serves to “weld” together fragments of the porous rock, said Jim Garvin, the chief scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, noting this process occurred during the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai. “These masses can pile up around erupting vents to protect the eruption centers and produce ephemeral new lands in some cases,” he said. When adrift, such pumice platforms can act as floating homes for marine organisms—from microalgae to bryozoans to barnacles—and enable them to disperse over long distances.

Though beneficial to life in some ways, the rafts can pose serious threats to humans and other species. Some of the larger fragments of pumice stack up to form ridges when they reach the coastlines of islands. Reports from Papua New Guinea highlight the disruptions to fishing, the transport of goods, and access to critical services that can occur when pumice accumulates along the coast.

Communities have expressed concerns over the pumice’s effects on marine ecosystems, as well. Researchers have noted that the sustained presence of pumice can block sunlight and may inhibit photosynthesis in seagrass and corals below, and the rocks may physically damage reef structures. In a review of the ecological effects of pumice reaching Japan’s coast in 2021, researchers noted the die-off of filter-feeding fish in fishery cages from ingesting pumice, warning that other wildlife may be harmed by mistakenly consuming the rocks.

New studies using an ensemble of orbital remote sensing platforms—including Landsat, hyperspectral instruments, and imaging radars—are tracking developments in this Bismarck Sea region, Garvin said. These observations can provide new perspectives on hazards as well as unique scientific opportunities for improved understanding of submarine eruptions.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

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The post Pumice Rafts Encroach on Admiralty Islands appeared first on NASA Science.

Tunnel vision

This evocative Picture of the Week transports you into one of the tunnels found below ESO’s Paranal Observatory in Chile’s Atacama Desert. The black and white lines draw you to focus on a lone figure at the end, a member of a group that forms one of the cornerstones of ESO: our observatories’ engineers. Whether they are inspecting the tunnels, shown here, maintaining the mirrors of the telescopes, or fixing the instruments that can capture faint cosmic objects, they are indispensable in the development and running of ESO’s facilities.

Tunnels such as this one connect the Unit Telescopes (UTs), which comprise the Very Large Telescope (VLT), to the control building where the VLT and its instruments are operated by observing teams. Each tunnel carries power and network cables, as well as pipes that channel liquid to cool various systems inside each UT. The tunnels can be also used to access the UTs when it is too windy outside. This photograph points towards the wall of UT1, also named ‘Antu’, meaning Sun in the Mapuche language of the indigenous people of central-southern Chile.

The pipes on the ceiling, concealed cabling on the walls, and reflections on the floor also convey a slightly eerie atmosphere. The photographer, ESO astronomer Luca Sbordone, says “as a science fiction fan, I love the tunnels, they have a very ‘spaceship’ feeling. For the best experience, go through them with lights off and just a flashlight. So far, no drooling, man-eating aliens in the Paranal tunnels. But I'm not giving up hope!

Little Blue Dot

Out this week: Little Blue Dot: How the Global Positioning System Shaped the Modern World by Katherine Dunn. From the publishers’ descriptions (plural: it’s out from Bloomsbury in the U.S. and HarperCollins imprint Mudlark in… More

Week Three in 250 to 250

This was the third week of videos from the 250 to 250 Project that we’re producing to honor the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

We designed the videos to emphasize the agency of Americans—mostly everyday Americans—to change the country. Each falls into a category that defines what it means to be an American, including community, democracy, innovation, mobility, civil rights, education, conservation, and creativity.

This week had some surprises—for me, anyway—which has been part of the fun of doing these. I knew who An Wang was, but not his story, and confess that while I had heard of the New Madrid earthquakes, I had no idea how important they were.

I hope you enjoy this week’s videos.

You can follow the project at the sites listed below, or under “videos” at my own YouTube page: Heather Cox Richardson. Or just wait until I send out the week’s roundup.

Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads


Triangle Shirtwaist Factory Fire, Narrated by Tom Perez

Tom Perez is a civil rights attorney, former Chair of the Democratic National Committee, and served as U.S. Labor Secretary under President Barack Obama. Perez tells us about the tragic 1911 Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire and the workplace reforms that it inspired.



New Madrid Earthquakes, Narrated by Conevery Bolton Valencius

Dr. Conevery Bolton Valencius is a Professor of History at Boston College, and author of The Lost History of the New Madrid Earthquakes and The Health of the Country: How American Settlers Understood Themselves and Their Land. Dr. Valencius recounts the New Madrid earthquakes that reshaped the landscape, displaced Indigenous Americans, and prompted America's first disaster relief legislation.



Samuel Adams, Narrated by Stacy Schiff

Stacy Schiff is a Pulitzer Prize-winning writer whose works include the New York Times bestsellers Cleopatra, The Witches: Salem, 1692, and The Revolutionary: Samuel Adams. Here, Schiff chronicles the life of Samuel Adams, the relentless agitator who shaped public opinion and pushed the colonies toward independence.

An Wang, Narrated by Representative Lori Trahan

United States Representative Lori Trahan of Massachusetts is the granddaughter of immigrants who became the first in her family to graduate from college before embarking on a distinguished career that culminated in her election to Congress in 2018. Representative Trahan recounts the life of An Wang, the Chinese American computer engineer who invented magnetic core memory and embraced an ethic of philanthropy.

Everglades, Narrated by Jack E. Davis

Pulitzer Prize-winner Jack E. Davis is a historian, longtime Florida resident, and Distinguished Professor of History at the University of Florida. In addition to other works, he is the author of An Everglades Providence: Marjory Stoneman Douglas and the American Environmental Century. Here Dr. Davis honors the Everglades, the Florida wetland known for its astounding beauty, and highlights the conservationism that ensured its protection.

Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
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June 13, 2026

Those of you celebrating the Knicks’ victory in the NBA Championship should enjoy yourselves and leave this one for later.

Before noon on Saturday, June 13, Charles M. Floca, whom Trump installed at the head of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, certified to the court that “the Center and its Board have complied with the Court’s order.” They had, he wrote, “[r]emoved all physical signage on the Kennedy Center building and grounds, including the front portico, that purports to rename the Kennedy Center after President Trump or any other individual besides President Kennedy,” updated the website, removed references to Trump from letterhead, promotional materials, and so on, and “[w]ithdrawn any trademark application officially referring to the Kennedy Center as the ‘Trump Kennedy Center’…or any similar formulation.”

What they did not do was take down the tarp workers installed last night around the scaffolding they erected yesterday, hiding the portico wall. Through a crack between the tarp and the wall, photographers caught a few images of letters coming down shortly after 3:00 AM—Cliff Owen of the Associated Press got an iconic shot of a worker loosening the P from the wall—but so far the public has not seen the restored facade. The portico remained shrouded all day.

In a statement, Kennedy Center spokesperson Roma Daravi said that the center was “fully compliant with the court’s directive” and that the board was evaluating “legal options.” Tonight workers were back at the Kennedy Center, where they created passageways in the tarp to make the center’s doors accessible while keeping the wall where Trump had put his name covered.

Last night, while workers were putting up scaffolding at the Kennedy Center, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fighters held a press conference at the Lincoln Memorial in advance of the UFC cage matches to be held at the White House on Trump’s 80th birthday on Sunday. Trump sent the United States Army Herald Trumpets, the U.S. Army ensemble chiefly responsible for playing the entrance and exit fanfares for the President of the United States, to open the event.

The fighters walked from Lincoln’s statue down the steps of the memorial through the Armed Forces Full Honor Cordon, a pathway formed between two groups made up of sixteen service members in dress uniforms. This is the U.S. military’s highest ceremonial formation, usually reserved for heads of state, foreign dignitaries, senior officials, and funerals for military heroes.

This morning the weigh-in for the UFC fights at the White House also took place at the Lincoln Memorial. Heavyweight fighter Josh Hokit seemed to pretend to throw up, dribbling colored liquid from his mouth. “So what? Maybe I was drinking last night,” Hokit told the media there. “Who wouldn’t be? I’ve got a giant man who wants to knock me out,” he said, referring to his scheduled opponent Derrick Lewis, whom Alex Pattle of Yahoo! Sports identifies as Trump’s favorite fighter. “He has the most knockouts in UFC history.”

Today stunt performer Travis Pastrana performed a backflip on his dirt bike over the UFC octagon fight arena on the South Lawn of the White House. Other riders performed stunts as well. They were filmed on their bikes, flying across the facade of the White House.

On the eve of his 80th birthday, the president posted an image of the Obama Presidential Center as a garbage can surrounded by a homeless encampment. Then he posted an image of himself leaving his trial in Manhattan Criminal Court in 2024, when a jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts, under the caption “Only Trump.” Then he posted an image from 2018 of himself walking with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. Then he posted a picture of himself speaking at a lectern in front of Air Force One while he was campaigning for reelection in August 2020.

Then he posted an AI image of himself on a ship looking out at battleships from different eras, including a wooden sailing vessel, flying the American flag, with fighter jets in formation overhead; the back of his jacket is emblazoned with “COMMANDER IN CHIEF,” and the caption reads: “YOU’RE GETTING DISCOMBOBULATED.”

Then he posted an image of himself on the cover of Fortune magazine from December 8, 1986. And then he posted a black and white image of himself as a younger man in the same era, looking pensive, seated in a chair on an ice rink, with the caption: “Years ago after saving the Wollman Skating Rink in Central Park—Long before I fixed The Reflecting Pool, and everything else in Washington, D.C. including, most importantly, CRIME! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Tomorrow night, the fighters will enter the ring from the Oval Office. The fight will be carried live on Paramount Plus, for a fee of $8.99 and up.

Notes:

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ufc-white-house-fighter-throws-201255308.html

https://thehill.com/homenews/5921974-motocross-athlete-travis-pastrana-says-hes-doing-stunt-on-white-house-lawn-ahead-of-ufc-fight/

https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/ufc-white-house-motocross-stunts-fights-b2994917.html

https://countryrebel.com/everything-to-know-about-ufc-fight-white-house/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/13/us/politics/trump-kennedy-center-name.html

https://usarmyband.com/ensembles/the-u-s-army-herald-trumpets

https://cagesidepress.com/2026/06/13/ufc-freedom-250-white-sick-of-weather-talk-hokit-gets-topuria-heated/

Bluesky:

muellershewrote.com/post/3mo6js2mvak2u

lukerussert.bsky.social/post/3mo6c4eg7us2w

thejenniwren.teamlh.social/post/3mo7ox7sghk25

bjkeefe.bsky.social/post/3mo7s3fmxyk2r

Instagram:

reels/DZisjt6Ct7y/

Trumpstruth.org:

statuses/39238

statuses/39242

statuses/39241

statuses/39240

statuses/39246

statuses/39245

statuses/39244

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A Trump Stunt

Sunday 14 June 1663

(Lord’s day). Lay long in bed. So up and to church. Then to dinner, and Tom dined with me, who I think grows a very thriving man, as he himself tells me.

He tells me that his man John has got a wife, and for that he intends to part with him, which I am sorry for, and then that Mr. Armiger comes to be a constant lodger at his house, and he says has money in his purse and will be a good paymaster, but I do much doubt it.

He being gone, I up and sending my people to church, my wife and I did even our reckonings, and had a great deal of serious talk, wherein I took occasion to give her hints of the necessity of our saving all we can. I do see great cause every day to curse the time that ever I did give way to the taking of a woman for her, though I could never have had a better, and also the letting of her learn to dance, by both which her mind is so devilishly taken off her business and minding her occasions, and besides has got such an opinion in her of my being jealous, that it is never to be removed, I fear, nor hardly my trouble that attends it; but I must have patience.

I did give her 40s. to carry into the country tomorrow with her, whereof 15s. is to go for the coach-hire for her and Ashwell, there being 20s. paid here already in earnest.

In the evening our discourse turned to great content and love, and I hope that after a little forgetting our late differences, and being a while absent one from another, we shall come to agree as well as ever.

So to Sir W. Pen’s to visit him, and finding him alone, sent for my wife, who is in her riding-suit, to see him, which she hath not done these many months I think. By and by in comes Sir J. Minnes and Sir W. Batten, and so we sat talking. Among other things, Sir J. Minnes brought many fine expressions of Chaucer, which he doats on mightily, and without doubt he is a very fine poet.1

Sir W. Pen continues lame of the gout, that he cannot rise from his chair. So after staying an hour with him, we went home and to supper, and so to prayers and bed.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

luau-wasm 0.1a0

Release: luau-wasm 0.1a0

See Publishing WASM wheels to PyPI for use with Pyodide for details.

Tags: lua, webassembly, pyodide

Mapping SQLite result columns back to their source `table.column`

Research: Mapping SQLite result columns back to their source `table.column`

It would be neat if arbitrary SQL queries in Datasette could be rendered with additional information based on which columns from which tables were included in the results.

To build that, we would need to be able to look at a SQL query like select users.name, orders.total from users join orders on orders.user_id = users.id and programmatically identify the table.column for each result - navigating not just joins but also more complex syntax like CTEs.

I decided to set Claude Code (Opus 4.8, since Fable is currently banned by the US government) on the problem. It found several promising solutions - one using apsw, another that uses ctypes to access the SQLite sqlite3_column_table_name() C function (which is not otherwise exposed to Python), and one using clever interrogation of the output of EXPLAIN.

Tags: python, sqlite, datasette

Technology and Social Change

Why Parents Really Need to Put Down Their Phones | Psychology Today

It’s sometimes hard to believe that ChatGPT was first released to the public less than four years ago. At this point AI is everywhere. This may be the most rapid adoption of a major new technology in history.

Despite AI’s ubiquity, its economic impact remains unclear. We don’t yet know what it will do to productivity, to employment, to wages or to income and wealth inequality. These are important issues, and I will be writing about them in the weeks ahead.

However, it’s important to realize that the ramifications of new technologies are much more than just productivity growth. They can indeed allow the economy to produce more goods with a given amount of resources. As I explained last week, “total factor productivity” is in fact the way economists measure the rate of technological progress. But new technologies also change society by altering the nature of work, where we live, how we interact with ourselves as well as others. Indeed, technological change can have profound social impacts even when its payoff in terms of higher GDP appears modest.

We know from history that the social changes caused by technological change aren’t always for the better. Sometimes technology makes society worse off in important ways. Sometimes it transforms society in ways some people find undesirable.

So this week I’m going to temporarily put the strictly economic impacts of technology aside and instead talk about technology and social change. As with last week’s primer, I will look at historical episodes as a way to gain insight into possible outcomes as AI diffuses through our society.

Beyond the paywall I will consider the following:

1. How mechanized agriculture made America less healthy

2. How modern manufacturing hollowed out cities

3. Contraception and women’s changing role

4. Smartphones and the rise of distraction

5. The social and psychological impacts of AI

Read more

Why AI hasn’t replaced software engineers, and won’t

Why AI hasn’t replaced software engineers, and won’t

Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kappor take on the question of AI job losses through the lens of a profession that is uniquely suited to AI disruption - software engineering.

In this essay, we argue that there is enough evidence to reject the narrative that once AI capabilities reach a certain threshold, it will cause mass layoffs. Given that this is true even in a sector with very few regulatory barriers, most other professions are likely to be even more cushioned.

The first good news is that the data still doesn't support the idea that AI is causing mass unemployment.

In March 2025, New York became the first U.S. state to add an AI disclosure checkbox to WARN Act filings. In the full first year, more than 160 companies filed WARN notices. Not a single one checked the AI box

AI speeds up the typing-code-into-a-computer phase, but it turns out software engineering is about a whole lot more than that:

If writing code isn’t the bottleneck, what is? The task-breakdown surveys point at things like meetings or debugging. This just leads to more questions: what are developers doing in those meetings and why can’t it be done by AI? Won’t debugging get automated as capabilities improve? To understand the real bottlenecks, we have to get qualitative, and dig into software engineers’ own understanding of what it is they do that resists automation.

When we did this analysis, it revealed three things as the real bottlenecks (1) deciding and specifying what to build, (2) verifying and being accountable for what is delivered, and (3) the deep human understanding — of the codebase, the business, and the environment — required to carry out both of these.

I'm finding AI assistance also helps me with the deciding and verifying steps, but it's the "deep human understanding" that remains key to the value I provide. Give me all of the AI assistance in the world and the value I produce will still be reliant on how deeply I understand both the problems and the solutions that the agents are building for them.

Tags: careers, ai, generative-ai, llms, arvind-narayanan, ai-ethics

Publishing WASM wheels to PyPI for use with Pyodide

The Pyodide 314.0 release announcement (via Hacker News) includes news I've been looking forward to for a long time:

You can now publish Python packages built for Pyodide (or any Python runtime compatible with the PyEmscripten platform defined in PEP 783) directly to PyPI and install them at runtime.

Previously, the Pyodide maintainers had to maintain, build, and host over 300 packages ourselves. This created a significant burden on our maintainers and became a major bottleneck for the community, as every new package required manual review.

Moving forward, package maintainers can simply build and publish Pyodide wheels to PyPI, just as they do for native wheels on Linux, macOS, or Windows.

Here's the PR to PyPI itself supporting this, which landed on April 21st.

I adore Pyodide, and have been frustrated in the past by this limitation. It's possible to compile C or Rust extensions to WASM in a wheel file, but before now there was no easy way to distribute them.

Thanks to the efforts of a whole lot of people, that's now been fixed!

Trying it out with luau-wasm

I decided to celebrate by finding something I could package. I have quite a few experimental Pyodide projects lying around, but the best fit for this looked to be my Luau WebAssembly research spike from 9th March.

Luau is a "small, fast, and embeddable programming language based on Lua with a gradual type system", developed by Roblox and released under an MIT license.

It's written in C++. I already knew it was possible to compile it to WebAssembly and get it running inside of Pyodide, so I set Codex + GPT-5.5 xhigh the task of packaging my experiment up and publishing it to PyPI using GitHub Actions.

It took some iteration, but here's the result: luau-wasm is a brand new PyPI package which publishes a 276KB luau_wasm-0.1a0-cp314-cp314-pyemscripten_2026_0_wasm32.whl file which can be used in Pyodide like this:

import micropip
await micropip.install("luau-wasm")
import luau_wasm
print(luau_wasm.execute(r'''
local animals = {"fox", "owl", "frog", "rabbit"}
table.sort(animals, function(a, b) return #a < #b end)
for i, name in animals do print(i .. ". " .. name .. " (" .. #name .. ")") end
'''))

You can run that code in the Pyodide REPL demo to see it in action.

The GitHub repo for luau-wasm includes all of the build and deploy scripts (using the latest cibuildwheel) and also deploys an HTML demo page which loads Pyodide, installs luau-wasm and provides an interface for trying it out: https://simonw.github.io/luau-wasm/

Screenshot of a web app titled "Luau WASM" with subtitle "Run Luau in the browser through Pyodide after installing the luau-wasm WebAssembly wheel from PyPI." A green "Ready" status badge is at top right. Below are example buttons: "Hello World", "Variables", "Tables", "Fibonacci", "Runtime Error". A "LUAU SOURCE" code editor contains: local function fib(n: number): number / if n < 2 then return n end / return fib(n - 1) + fib(n - 2) / end / local out = {} / for i = 0, 12 do / table.insert(out, tostring(fib(i))) / end / print(table.concat(out, ", ")). On the right is an "OUTPUT" panel with a "Copy" button showing dark terminal output: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144. At the bottom left are a blue "Run" button, a "Clear" button, and the text "6.0 ms".

How many packages are using this so far?

I was curious to see how many packages are currently publishing wheels for this platform.

After some tinkering with ChatGPT I got to this BigQuery SQL which I ran against PyPI's public dataset on BigQuery. Here's the raw JSON of query results and here's a SQLite SQL query in Datasette Lite which dedupes packages by most recent upload date.

If the query is right, there are currently 28 PyPI packages publishing with the new pyemscripten_202*_wasm32 tags:

luau-wasm, uuid7-rs, cmm-16bit, pyOpenTTDAdmin, imgui-bundle, numbertoolkit, bashkit, geoarrow-rust-core, arro3-io, arro3-core, arro3-compute, onnx, powerfit-em, tcod, chonkie-core, tokie, robotraconteur, pydantic_core, yaml-rs, cadquery-ocp-novtk-OCP.wasm, uuid_utils, base64_utils, pycdfpp, lib3mf-OCP.wasm, typst, toml-rs, onnx-weekly, dummy-pyodide-ext-test

Here's hoping we see a whole lot more of those showing up over the coming months and years.

Tags: lua, pypi, python, sandboxing, webassembly, github-actions, pyodide

*The Pressure* (no spoilers)

A truly excellent movie, one of the best of the year.  Specifically, it concerns the meteorological forecasts (!) leading up to the D-Day invasion.  Thematically, it is about the differences between Americans and Brits, how bureaucracy operates, the nature of leadership, and the proper role of science in government.  It is like an old-style Hollywood movie.  Most of the action takes place in only a few rooms, and with superb dialogue and performances.  Although you all know how D-Day turns out, the movie still generates suspense on some of the major plot points.  Definitely recommended, here is the movie’s trailer.

The post *The Pressure* (no spoilers) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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SpaceX launches its first Falcon 9 rocket since Nasdaq debut

The Starlink 17-54 mission lifts off from Vandenberg on June 12, 2026, under a ceiling of low cloud. Image: SpaceX.

SpaceX launched its first Falcon 9 rocket since making its public trading debut on the Nasdaq.

The Starlink 17-54 mission launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Monday morning to add another 24 broadband internet satellites to the company’s low Earth orbit constellation.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East occurred at 8:34 a.m. PDT (11:34 a.m. EDT / 1534 UTC). The rocket flew on a south-southwesterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

SpaceX launched the Starlink 17-54 mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1093. It was the 14th flight after launching the Transporter-14, SDA T1TL-B and T1TL-C, and ten batches of Starlink satellites.

A little more than eight minutes after liftoff, B1093 landed on the drone ship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You’, positioned in the Pacific Ocean. It was the 203rd landing on this vessel and the 624th booster landing for SpaceX.

Upcoming Speaking Engagements

This is a current list of where and when I am scheduled to speak:

  • I’m giving a keynote at Cybernation 2026 in Berlin, Germany, on June 24, 2026.
  • I’m speaking at the Potsdam Conference on National Cybersecurity at the Hasso Plattner Institut in Potsdam, Germany. The event runs June 24–25, 2026, and my talk will be the evening of June 24.
  • I’m participating in a panel discussion at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs in Vienna on Thursday, June 25, 2026.
  • I’m speaking at the Digital Humanism Conference in Vienna, Austria, on Friday, June 26, 2026.
  • I’m giving a fireside chat for Epicenter Works, to be held at Kaffee Alt Wien in Vienna, Austria, on Friday, June 26, 2026.
  • I’m participating (via Zoom) in a panel discussion at Quantum.Tech World in Boston, Massachusetts, USA, on Friday, June 26, 2026. The topic is “Q-Day’s Shortening Deadline: Immediate Solutions.”
  • I’m speaking at Czech Technical University in Prague, Czechia, on Monday, June 29, 2026.
  • I’m speaking at the Nuremberg Digital Festival in Nuremburg, Germany, on Wednesday, July 1, 2026.
  • I’m speaking at CanSecWest 2026 in Vancouver, Canada. The conference runs September 30–October 1, 2026; the time of my talk is TBD.

The list is maintained on this page.

Does Donald Trump make Latin America a good bet?

Nowhere in the developing world has done so well out of the past year

Links 6/14/26

Links for you. Science:

First Case of New World Screwworm Confirmed in South Texas Cattle
Nearly 60 Idahoans sick after drinking raw milk in past two weeks, officials say
This is extremely chilling – virologists being targeted for what appears to be minor (if any) “offenses”.
NIH scientists plead not guilty to smuggling monkeypox viruses into U.S.
Police Tussle With Diabetes Experts at ADA Meeting. Researchers told they could no longer attend the annual scientific sessions
Inside the Ebola Epicenter, the Virus Rages With Little to Stop It
Inside the Quest to Mine the Bottom of the Sea

Other:

This new OMB Rule Is Bigger Than Science. Much Bigger.
Graham Platner and the Perils of Authenticity
A Shocking Betrayal of Black Americans
Graham Platner is a Type of Guy. And You Gotta Decide What That Means
John Roberts, Roger Taney, And The Unbearable Weight Of Desperation
Meta Silently Added Face-Recognition Code for Its Smart Glasses to Millions of Phones
Debbie Downer: The sleazy fintech bro Republican running in her home district is as beatable as they come. So why is former DNC chair Wasserman Schultz carpetbagging in a historically Black district?
As Ebola Outbreak Widens, Trump Has Yet to Outline a Plan
Samurai city
The World Cup For Nobody Is Almost Here
Northern Israelis are paying the price for their resilience
DoorDash Isn’t Why You’re Broke But It’s Probably Not Helping
Trump Makes It Official: The ‘Freedom 250’ Concerts Are Canceled — to Be Replaced With ‘the Greatest Rally EVER!,’ Starring Him and (Surprise) Lee Greenwood
George Santos reported to prosecutors over suspicious Kalshi trades, AP source says
ICE’s Plan to Let Cops Around the Country Scan Faces to Verify Immigration Status
The Trumpers Are Taking Over the Media: We Can Do Something Other than Whine
Why are US consumers so angry? It’s not just high prices
Donald Trump Is Bad At Lying (this is good, but it ignores that Trump is a narcissist, and narcissists lie, in part, to convince themselves)
How a Pro-Worker Bill May Advance in the House: Seven Republicans have joined every House Democrat to bring pro-union legislation to the floor next week.
RFK Jr. seeks to peek at Americans’ medical records for clues on autism and vaccines (not only is it a massive breach of privacy and a violation of how medical consent is supposed to work, I bet that dumbass Geier is going to be the one looking at the data)
Why Stone-Faced Fascists Keep Getting Antiquity Wrong
Rep. Vindman (D-VA) Posts Happy Pride After Voting To Defund Trans-Friendly Schools
Festering Infections to Untreated Cancer: ICE Detainees Describe Medical Neglect Across US
What does government oppression really look like?
John Fetterman Hands Trump a Huge Victory on Federal Judge
Trump’s Name Is Disappearing From More Than Just the Kennedy Center
The Jan. 6 Pardons: How Many Clemency Recipients Have Faced Other Charges?
Americans Have Grown Dramatically Anti-Data Center in Just Months, Survey Finds
Trump Mental State Exposed in Damning Video as Rubio Spins
Trump Is Eyeing Control of Smithsonian’s Budget. The administration is creating a conflict with how Congress intended its money be spent.

Missile production push runs into solid rocket motor bottleneck

A new CSIS report says planned 2027 interceptor buys will test a supply chain still recovering from years of consolidation

The post Missile production push runs into solid rocket motor bottleneck appeared first on SpaceNews.

Touching Time

I touched some literal grass today. I don’t think the phrase means what the young people think it does.

I was touching grass not because I particularly wanted to, but because my wife needed some help repotting her tomato plants. Neither of us is particularly interested in gardening. My wife is primarily on a mission to secure better tomatoes for the coming months than are generally available in Seattle. I’m free-riding on her efforts for a ready supply of fresh cilantro. Though to be honest, if she weren’t gardening, I’d just get my cilantro at the store like I used to. I’d probably just let the local forest take over our yard.


Little signal boost: I’m organizing the Protocol Symposium in September, on the theme of New Nature. One day left for talk and workshop proposals (deadline, Sunday 14th June, midnight).


I don’t mind light gardening chores like watering the lawn or a spot of digging around, but it’s not my idea of relaxing fun. The wife though, has been drawn into the ceaseless global war of backyard gardeners against weeds and various critters that try to eat your produce. In our case, local wild bunnies, which she initially thought were cute but has now declared her sworn enemies. She is wishing death-by-coyote on them, but the local coyotes have so far not obliged. It’s nature red green in tooth and root in our backyard.

This essay is not about whatever “touching grass” is a metaphor for. I don’t know, probably some touchingly vulnerable thing like curing loneliness and alienation by seeking more non-parasocial IRL friendships and romance, with maybe a bit of actual outdoor time to regulate sleep better and mitigate the fatigue of too much screen time. Worthwhile life-hygiene things perhaps, but not particularly interesting to me. These are not problems I personally suffer, though I sympathize with those who do.

This essay is a little bit about literally touching grass, but it’s mainly about a complementary activity I’ll call touching time.

***

To literally touch grass in most parts of the world, especially in the sort of somatic-meditative mode the meme-phrase suggests, somebody probably needs to be fighting a deadly war against not-grass. Grass in a pure, monocultural form is not a natural thing.

I grew up mostly in single-family homes with lawns-equipped gardens and regular gardeners. My mom was an avid gardener, and remains one in her 80s (though now limited to a bunch of balcony plants in my parents retirement apartment). I enjoyed helping out with the lawn watering mainly because you could have fun playing games with the water.

Grass anywhere, in the sense suburbanites everywhere encounter it, is an extraordinarily unnatural thing, but it is particularly so in India. The tropics are not a natural habitat of temperate European lawn grasses, and it’s an uphill struggle against blazing sun alternating with torrential rain to keep lawns going. Tropical monsoon ecologies alternate between dry and dusty and lush and overgrown. Neither mode is lawn-friendly. The natural sort of curated domestic plant ecology is a fruit orchard plus herb garden full of small gods.

Grass is not natural in the Seattle area either, where I live now. The latitude is right, but it’s too wet. The natural ecology here is dense temperate rainforest full of sparkly vampires and werewolves.

But even in the form you might typically encounter it in its native habitat, grass in the sense of a lawn monoculture is a highly unnatural, authoritarian high-modernist Veblen good. The stylized expression of Euro-heritage billionaire atavism, not starving poet soul-salve that heals through touch. What is natural is the meadow, a wild multi-species ecology. And meadows are not that fun to touch, as you’d know if you’ve tried. The one time I tried was when I misguidedly tried to do a spot of orienteering in 2005, with a survey map in hand, on the outskirts of Ithaca. It was not fun.

Meadows harbor many itchy-scratchy-sneezy-creepy-crawly things. Hostility animal, vegetable, and mineral. The mix of grasses and other plants typically grows taller than a lawn (between knee and waist-high). And much of it is not the soft kind.

Laying on your back on a well-manicured suburban lawn, running your fingers through the cool grass, is fun. On a wild meadow, not so much. You’ll probably touch something unpleasantly pokey or bitey.

Between the wild meadow and the authoritarian high-modernist lawn, we have the heavily grazed pasture. That probably has horse and cow manure all over it.

***

Here is a picture of the grass I touched this morning. We just reseeded it a few weeks ago, and it’s already enduring an assault from some sort of weed species, probably buttercup, according to ChatGPT.

The very idea of a weed, of course, is an authoritarian high-modernist one, but my wife, an authoritarian high-modernist to the core, is planning a battle against it. Our lawn is going to be monoculturally legibilized in war mode whether it likes it or not. Darwin’s tangled bank is not permitted to enter. Wildflower meadow patches are for the weak-minded.

See, that’s the thing about actually, literally touching grass. Unless it’s someone else’s grass you’re free-riding on, you’re actually signing up to participate in a silent, never-ending war against meadowfication or forestification. Tangled-bankification. It is ceaseless, tiring hard work; a specialized kind of farming. If you want five minutes of grass-touching a day, you’ll probably need to spend an hour a day fighting the war to keep it available (or paying someone to fight it for you).

People meditatively posting about “agency” aren’t well-suited to doing it. In the US, this war is mostly waged by immigrant Mexican workers on behalf of people posting online about touching grass.

Grass of the sort that shapes the Western narrative imagination, whether of the naturalistic English garden variety, the formal French garden variety, or the golf-course variety, is fragile monocultural life maintained with grim determination against the encroaching pressures of wilder, more pluralist ecologies.

Yes, it’s pleasant to touch. No, it’s no more a natural experience than touching astroturf. Which actually isn’t bad. I enjoy astroturfed outdoor malls.

Touching meadows would probably be a better prescription for the times, but I doubt it will catch on.

***

My prefered form of interaction with nature is not ceaseless war-mode agentic striving to maintain authoritarian high-modernist gardens but walking and mild hiking through mildly challenging wilderness areas. Well, “wilderness” in the sense of human-adjacent zones of preservation with some well-maintained easy hiking trails through them. Actual wilderness (as in the deep interiors of national parks, far from well-maintained trails and campsites), which I’ve experienced a few times when I was younger and actively “seeking meaning” myself, is stressful in a whole different you-could-die way. I exhausted what little desire I had to test my wilderness survival instincts by age 22.

The thing about both gardening/farming and being in extreme wilderness is that they’re necessarily zones of inescapable high-intensity agency that you either have to take on yourself or pay someone else to. They are not spectator sports. Light hiking trails, on the other hand, enable more passive experiences. Somebody (preferably not me) still has to labor a bit, but it’s not as intense as farming, gardening, or cutting your way through deep wildernesses with a machete, keeping an eye open for jaguars. It’s not a warzone. It’s a sort of neighborly detente zone of engagement with minimally domesticated wilderness.

Over the past few decades, I’ve been fortunate enough to have nearly always lived near pleasant light-hiking trails. The one exception was a year in Austin, 2000-01. There, I lived in an unpleasant neighborhood next to big-box stores and highways. I don’t know whether there are any areas in Texas I could enjoy living in.

My favorite lightly domesticated wilderness was Ithaca, where my commute from downtown to my office on the Cornell campus was a hike up a trail next to a cascading waterfall.

What was nice about it was not touching grass, but touching time. Deep time. The gorges of Ithaca (the town’s slogan is Ithaca is Gorges) were carved out in the last ice age. Hiking around near Ithaca, you hike through deep time. Tens of thousands of years evident in the landscape. Millennia visible to the literate eye in the strata exposed by the retreating glaciers.

Mine is not a literate eye. I’m no geologist. But I can feel it in my gut when there is in-your-face deep time geology stuff going on, and I like it.

***

As a kid, my fondest memories of our backyard lawn is not of touching the grass, but of looking up at the stars. In high school, I’d regularly lug my cheap telescope out to the lawn to do a spot of star-gazing.

Now there’s an activity that’s almost entirely about touching time. The skies above offer zero room for human agency. Even trillionaire Musk, with his dreams of Mars colonies, has agency that amounts to a rounding error past zero relative to the cosmos. There’s basically nothing you can do with the heavens besides photograph them.

Not only is it all impossibly far away in space, largely beyond any sort of touching, the vast majority of it is also impossibly far away in time. The nearest star you see is 4.2 years in the past. The Vogons could have demolished it yesterday and we wouldn’t know.

The heavens are a sort of asymptotic zone of non-agency. You have only two choices in relation to them — ignore them entirely and refuse to learn about them (as the very practical Sherlock Holmes did), or treat them as a spectator sport (a very slow one; slower than cricket).

The only available attitude to the heavens demands not agency, but presence.

To a certain contemporary type, mere presence in the cosmos is an anxiety-provoking, even alarming state of being to contemplate. If they’re not aggressively making grand plans to construct Dyson spheres and generation ships headed to Alpha Centauri, they find the spatio-temporally distant read-only universe too distressing to even attend to.

***

Presence without agency is also the only way we can relate to the past. We can be present in memories, individual and collective. But we cannot alter the phenomenology that induced them. We can endlessly spin revisionist narratives, but we can’t alter the past itself.

This too, is anxiety provoking for the agency-anxious, and so they turn to notions of progress and predestination, trying to go beyond mere revisionist history to what we might call proofs of history: Authoring hoped-for futures in part to “prove” preferred pasts.

When I was younger, I enjoyed reading “Big Histories.” Now I no longer do. They’re all anxiously motivated revisionisms, simply by virtue of being Big. No story at that sort of scale can be told except in the form of a self-soothing fantasy.

Instead, I enjoy reading about specific periods and episodes. Little histories. I like my sense of the Big to emerge not through epic grand narratives, but as a sort of collage of deeper temporal dynamics revealed through many fragments coalescing into a sort of atomized encyclopedia of moments.

Little histories allow you to touch time in ways big histories don’t. That is their main advantage.

This doesn’t mean you have to immerse yourself in the sort of joyless grind of uninspired documentation that is much of scholarly history. There is plenty of little history that combines scholarly attention to detail with a sense of the poetry of time. Our book club is mostly about reading that sort of romantic little history. And if you harbor psychohistorical conceits as my world machines buddies and I do, I think the trick is to get at your Seldon Vault prophecies by touching time through little histories. Not self-indulgence in anxiously revisionist Big Histories.

You do need a certain amount of Big History reading as preparatory orientation for understanding little histories. If you survive the many perils of that kind of reading — historicism, progressology, ideology, theology, exceptionalism — what you end up with is a rough map on which to start placing the little histories you can begin collecting. My idea of Big History now is like an empty stamp album. Stamps are actually ideal motifs of little history. Every stamp usually tells some specific story (though not always the one it is trying to tell). The Big History is implicit in the organization of the collection, rather than explicated in an epic grand narrative.

Touching stamps is a good example of touching time. Touching time is about the physics of stamp collecting.

What I mean by touching time is this: A cognitive-sensory experience that has temporal depth in the frequency domain, with time constants ranging from seconds to millennia available to the attuned awareness to attend to. “Infinity in an hour” as William Blake put it.

Many experiences are temporally shallow. A well-manicured lawn, for example, is largely a war of short time constants between fast-growing grasses and roughly equally fast-growing weeds. Deeper, slower dynamics, as well as faster, shallower ones are present, but harder to become aware of and attend to. Hiking through a gorge with exposed strata, on the other hand, the depth of time is in your face. Time is thick enough to cut with a knife.

***

I think one undertheorized reason people feel the urge to touch grass is a sense of helplessness in relation to events at larger scales, in an era which urges us to cultivate agency in relation to everything.

To be is to do apparently. The only way our age knows of to merely be is to be somebody, which is a degenerate sort of doing, in the form of personhood performance in theaters of agency.

To merely be, in the sense of existing anonymously and idly in a universe over much of which you have zero agency, without either studiously ignoring it, or striving intensely to try and make it take special notice of you, is widely regarded as a disease.

Touching time is about rejecting that pathologization of banal, non-special presence, and choosing to exist in the cosmos without being somebody or doing something. Not because it’s some enlightened state of being (it just takes some laziness and mediocrity of disposition), but because it’s actually a very pleasant way of being.

I came up with an allegory for this.

Imagine you’re on a vast spaceship traveling in hyperdimensional space. You’re a normal human, so you can only intelligibly sense the regular four: three spatial dimensions plus time. But the ship itself is weaving in and out of many more curled-up dungeon dimensions, as Terry Pratchett dubbed them. Sometimes maneuvering aggressively, at other times cruising along.

You do, however, unintelligibly sense the other dimensions, all of them, in your gut. You are present in all dimensions as a full-dimensioned dungeon-dimensions creature rather than a four-dimensional limited one.

Your experience of the dungeon dimensions of the spaceship’s journey is the familiar one of nausea.

And you can regulate this nausea. Turns out, if you let your mind wander to abstract thoughts and intangible ideas, graspable only through words, the nausea increases. But if you retreat from abstraction and intangibility, the nausea goes down.

So naturally, a division appears between two groups of people on the ship.

The first group, unable to tolerate the nausea, retreats from it. And is so successful at retreating, it begins to doubt that the spaceship is in fact maneuvering in hyperdimensional space. It begins to believe the dungeon dimensions do not exist at all. That the ship in fact merely exists in 4d space and chugging along placidly in it. That the sensible thing to do is to stay grounded in things you can see and touch, such as the astroturf (heh!) covering much of the ship’s built environment.

The second group, with greater tolerance for the nausea, heads deeper into it, to try and experience the dungeon dimensions as fully as possible. To get past mere visceral feelings and vibes to consciously regulated intelligible experience. This group immerses itself in abstractions and intangibles as far as it can tolerate, and begins to make for itself dungeon-dimensional maps, with the spaceship’s estimated trajectories marked on it. Slowly, it begins to convince itself that not only are the dungeon dimensions real, but that its maps are accurate, and that it can reliably orient in and navigate them.

And naturally, a war begins to unfold between the two groups.

The spaceship, of course, is just Buckminster Fuller’s Spaceship Earth. And the two groups of course, are the grass-touchers and the abstract map-makers.

Touching time is how you bridge the divide between the two.

We are living through times when Spaceship Earth is maneuvering extraordinarily aggressively through the dungeon dimensions of hyperdimensional spacetime, even though in the three dimensions we can see, it is continuing its age-old orbit around the Sun, marking time at one year per orbit.

We all feel it in our guts. To retreat to touching grass is to surrender to a sense of the maneuverings of history being unsteerable. To retreat in the other direction to make endless maps is to mistake your comforting fictions for vast and limitless steering authority.

But to touch time is to feel your way into whatever steering authority you do have, without needing to retreat from everywhere you have none.

w/e 2026-06-14

Some progress made this week.


§ For months, at least, I’ve been putting off updating my three Django websites to use uv to manage their versions of Python and third-party packages.

I’ve been using uv for development for ages, and like it a lot, but have never liked doing things on web servers because I don’t understand a lot of it and have no desire to learn more. Every time I thought, “OK, I’ll finally do this!” it was near the end of the day, or the end of the week, and I’d put it off in case I needed to call on Mythic Beasts’ support to rescue me. So I’d continue generating a requirements.txt every time I updated things with uv so that the live sites could continue using pip-tools.

But last week I updated this site, apparently successfully. It went too easily, with no errors at any point which always makes me uneasy. If a process I’m wary about generates no errors that’s usually a sign the change I was making hasn’t actually happened, and everything is quietly continuing to run as it did before.

So this week I changed the other two sites and, with the experience of the first site, they went even more smoothly. So that was either a fairly simple process I shouldn’t have put off for months or else it will all suddenly go wrong at some future point when a process realises everything has changed to a new, broken set-up.


§ In the garden I did another half hour of sledgehammering and crowbarring concrete from the old, broken pond. Not much left to go now in this initial exhausting stage of that big project.

Although I was relieved at the local builders’ merchant’s service last week, this week I went to collect my order and (a) they hadn’t sawn the timber by Tuesday as firmly promised, and (b) despite the helpful guy suggesting 300mm 2×2″ pegs for securing the timber edging, they don’t actually sell 300mm 2×2″ pegs so I ended up with 450mm 2×2″ pegs instead, which seem a bit over-the-top.

But over one morning and one afternoon I’ve made good progress on the edging, sawing the timber to correct lengths, hammering some of the pegs in, and screwing things together. I’m probably, vaguely, half-way through that part of the process now. I only cursed the extra length of those pegs for the final 50 or so extra whacks of the sledgehammer required to get them far enough in.


§ I had the lowest low point for a while on Friday, perhaps crashing after a couple of busy / slightly stressful days, and I gave up on thoughts of doing anything at all. It’s hard to know, on such a day, when I do nothing, whether I’m lazy, depressed, or “being kind to myself”. But it was the severest case of “what’s the point of doing anything?” I’ve had for a while, a high (or low?) bar to clear.


§ Some quick bits:

  • Cows are now in the field across the road, which we can see from the garden. Quite late compared to previous years, but always a nice sight to occasionally see the black and white shapes move over the hill, and make quite a noise at breakfast and dinner times.

  • Although I am now retired I find it very hard to say this to strangers who ask what I do, continuing to say I’m a freelance web developer. It was all I could do not to put “retired” in quotes in that previous sentence, because it seems so ridiculous.

  • Related, this week I told my accountant I’d be going it alone from now on. Having closed my limited company a couple of years back, I figure it’ll now be simple enough for me to do tax returns myself.

  • Many years ago I made an RSS feed for Doonesbury. Eventually it stopped working and then so did the alternatives. Via Pete Ashton I recently discovered there’s now a working feed (repeats except for Sunday’s new strips) on ComicCaster.

  • Apart from when commenters are outraged that a cryptic crossword heavily features clues related to Taylor Swift or similar, I find it interesting when solvers haven’t heard of certain familiar-to-me words, while being happy with, say, obscure cricketing terms. So I was amused at Friday’s Cracking the Cryptic when he described “diptych” and “ha-ha” as terms he only knew from crosswords. The science/arts divide in action.

  • As well as Michael Barrymore my other favourite mature guy providing gentle uplifting TikTok content at the moment is Trevor Horn.

  • David Hockney passed away. I loved his photo montages when I came across them at university but the paintings never grabbed me until I went to the Tate Britain retrospective in 2017 (that long ago?!). So good. It’s like me not really getting Van Gogh’s work until going to the Van Gogh Museum and being blown away.

  • On Saturday I stubbed my toe on the bed leg so hard it was bent off to one side. Dislocated? I don’t know. After I’d finished swearing and moaning I clicked it back straight again, which is pretty much the same as a movie action hero re-setting their own broken arm. Today I am hobbling around gently. Idiot.

  • Years ago I liked taking photos of empty offices through their windows. While these are definitely out front, I guess they now qualify as “backrooms”?

A photo looking across an empty office. The floor is uncarpeted, shiny metal plates. The walls are plain white. The lights are dimly on. Windows in the distance show night outside.
Empty Milton Gate office - 5 (2008)

§ I forgot to say last week that I went to my second Weirdshire gig: Dave Nock & Mike Bethel, an improvisatory guitar duo supporting benjin who played the nyckelharpa alongside field recordings and samples. All interesting, and it was nice to listen to all that while looking out at the the summer evening colours fade over the 15th century Wye Bridge and young people sitting outside chatting.

Last night I took Mum to see Emily Portman playing solo. As with the above, I’d never heard of her, and it was nice enough but a bit too “folky” for me.


§ We started The Pitt this week, watching the first two episodes back-to-back. As the credits rolled after the second I had something like a mini panic attack: tears, hard to breathe. I guess it was the accumulated stress of the whole thing alongside the storyline about siblings seeing their elderly dad reach the end of his life. A couple of years on that’s still very tough to think about at times. It’s difficult to see a photo of my familiar smiling Dad and realise that he’s no longer in the present, only the past.


§ We also finished the fourth and final season of My Brilliant Friend. It’s been four years since we saw the previous one and coupled with the new, older, actors, we were always struggling to recall previous events which was a shame. Watching all four series in closer succession would make for a much better experience but it was still good.


§ That’s all. Hold on everyone.


Read comments or post one

Sunday assorted links

1. Chinese overtake Dominicans as NYC’s most numerous foreign-born group.

2. David Hockney embraced tech (NYT).  And do not forget his writings, not to mention his persona and also his role in gay history and liberation.  He was truly one of the great Englishmen, as he had been doing first-rate work since what, 1954?

3. Progress against lung cancer.

4. Average German date? And a six-minute video of a non-average German circus artist.  And an eleven-year-old German on the handpan, without training.

5. Measuring how New Yorkers responded to their game 4 playoff victory.  I have not seen data on game 5, though that was less of a surprise.

6. How The Bulwark is doing, and its economics (WSJ).

7. Become a telescope rancher those new service sector jobs (short video).

8. Bob Dylan (and others) on turning 80 (NYT).  Dylan’s answer is clearly the best.

9. Paul Graham on how to become a billionaire.

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Caged Heat

Grift is never far away for this White House.

No, I won’t be watching mixed martial arts on the White House lawn, the manmade spectacle ostensibly scheduled  to mark the nation’s 250th or Donald Trump’s 80th birthday.

There is nothing about this hyped “special event” to find attractive, despite the recognition that MMA has become the nation’s third most-followed “sport.”

So were the lions eating gladiators at the Coliseum.

But as a unique perversion of what we expect from government and from a White House that is meant to sustain community values, this staged extravaganza has an undeniable lure for understanding just how we have slipped in ethical principles, poor taste, and perhaps even legal violations.

Citing a lack of legal standing, a federal judge declined to hear a late citizen lawsuit filed to halt or limit the events to allow private takeover of the Lincoln Memorial and the While House itself from a branded, private promotion of bloodsport, but it helped detail the many unpleasant truths about where we find ourselves in the seemingly constant need to glorify Trump in our name – as well as provide the Trumps with new money-making opportunities.

The Cage Matches

For openers, calling this $60-million, partisan and personalized ego-trip a special 250th spectacle for American democracy seems a parody. The official Fourth of July holiday with celebrations, concerts and fireworks specified as nonpartisan, open to the public, and built around an existing holiday meant to honor the country’s independence, is only two weeks away. Why wouldn’t that be the central focus for a 250th celebration?

So, even the premise of a need for a separate White House event, even if largely underwritten by corporations seeking government contracts, is bogus.

Then there was the parade of third-tier performers deserting the effort when they learned that their would-be patriotic appearances for America would be turned into personal partisan hugs for Trump, prompting Trump to offer himself and a wandering campaign-style speech instead.

It turns out that Trump, who invested in the parent company of the for-profit Ultimate Fighting Championship presentation just before announcement of the event, stands to gain personally from its promotion – a birthday present to himself delivered in our name. And the Trump family is issuing a series of commemorative coins with the heads of Trump and CEO Dana White of UFC for between $250 and $12,000 each. Grift is never far away for this White House.

Plus, paying for much, but not all, the costs are corporate donations with labeled banners from companies donating a million bucks a pop for what would pass as payoff tribute anywhere outside this White House. Along with million-dollar viewing packages for corporate buyers, the event has become a celebration of values antithetical to the purpose of government or our appropriate regulation of corporate power.

It’ll be televised only by subscription cable networks run by the same people who have taken over CBS and maybe CNN and have vowed to make editorial changes to satisfy the same Trump who controls whether they get federal approval for pending corporate mergers.

There is the unprecedented access that Trump is giving to the UFC entrepreneurs to run their promotional campaigns through the White House and Lincoln Memorial, and then to control tightly who can attend – including members of the military selected for their adherence to Trump’s idea of an acceptably fit physique, another crazy aspect of the Trump personal agenda that his own body certainly could not fit.

The Values Questions

At the center of all this – inside a giant, newly constructed octagonal caged ring – will be seven no-holds barred male fighting couples. What does this have to do with America and its 250 years of democracy? What does it have to do with Trump’s love for bloodsport, so long as someone else is bleeding? What does it say about what he values in America?

A Reuters/Ipsos poll says that only 16% of Americans approve of holding a cage match at the presidential residence. There have always been sporting and arts events at the White House, of course, but nearly all have been low-contact affairs from tennis and softball to Easter egg rolls, and mostly all for kids. In 1926, a prizefight was held to help revive the 150th national birthday between a boxing champion and U.S. Marine veteran — who won.

Young men seem to be drawn to MMA, a highly violent sport whose goal is to physically incapacitate an opponent with fairly broad rules. They say MMA it offers an outlet for stress, a path to physical and mental resilience, and a space for authentic achievement. Politically, it is this “manosphere” that helped fuel Trump’s election.

MMA also appeals to White supremacists and carries a tinge of racism lingering from days in which slaves were required to fight one another in gladiator style.

But beyond the violent aspect of this cage fight, 6 in 10 adults say the country’s best years are behind it, few believe it is exceptional, and the president’s disapproval rating is historically high. Promoter Trump has pitched these matches as a source of national pride, showing once again his detachment from a world much more worried about economics, identity and health care than he recognizes.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

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In Case You Missed It…

…two weeks of Mad Biologist posts:

Sign of the Times

Nothing Good Happens Without Ending the Filibuster and Court Reform

What Has the Guard Surge Actually Done for D.C.?

Sign of the Times

Another Great Week for D.C. Crime Stats

It Always Has to Be About Trump

DOGE Screwed Us on Screwworm

The Political Press Corps Still Does Not Understand What the Epstein Files Mean for MAGA

A Bad Week for D.C. Crime Stats

Oil on Logan

European Workshop on Market Design #6, 17 — 18 June 2026, in Paris

 Coming up this week.

European Workshop on Market Design #6favicon


17 — 18 June 2026

The 6th edition of the European Workshop on Market Design (2026 EWMD) holds at

Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1)
12 Place du Panthéon
75005 Paris,



The 2026 Lecture in Memory of Nora Szech (1980-2023) will be given by Klaus Schmidt (Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich).

Speakers:

Nageeb Ali, Penn State University

Mira Frick, Princeton University

Guillaume Haeringer, Baruch College

Ilan Kremer, University of Warwick

Philippos Louis, University of Cyprus

Justus Preusser, Bocconi University

Agathe Pernoud, Chicago Booth

Cyril Rouault, GRANEM, University of Angers and Centre for Economics at Paris-Saclay

Anna Sanktjohanser, Toulouse School of Economics

Klaus Schmidt, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich

Nikhil Vellodi, Paris School of Economics

Maren Vairo, University of Pennsylvania

Organizing Committee

Nina Bobkova, Rice University

Olivier Bos, ENS Paris-Saclay, Centre for Economics at Paris-Saclay

Nicolas Fugger, University of Cologne & ZEW Mannheim

Daniil Larionov, University of Munster

Marion Ott, ZEW Mannheim

Xiangyu Qu, Unviersity Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

 

The Cultural War is a Civil War

Kevin Bryan riffs on on my post The Nationalization of American Science. He is rightfully incensed:

AT is right this is a red tape-filled science policy of “losers”. If you think “cut funds from DEI-driven professors in the small departments no one cares about” is more important than “make sure the world’s strongest fundamental science continues”, you’re an idiot.

And yes, this is also the policy of “right-wing JD-brain” folks. They haven’t worked in a lab. They don’t know how we got AI, and recent cancer breakthroughs, and on and on. It’s all culture war, all the time – just the right-wing equivalent of the worst left-wing habits.

One last thing: I *hate* the term “administration priorities” or “President’s priorities”. Totally Unamerican! The President *executes* the law created by Congress, who represent the people, and who see turnover every two years. Period. “Oh, but Democrats do this too!” Grow up!

Owning the libs may feel good today but please look just one move ahead in the game tree. When AOC controls the executive branch, she will inherit every tool Trump normalized. Look a few moves further and see the damage to American institutions.

The culture war is a civil war. If we don’t end it, American science will be collateral damage.

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The bullish case for Brazil

From Drew Crawford:

Start with the most important number in economics, even though no one on Wall Street talks about it: calories per acre. Human civilization runs on food. Ten billion people will inhabit this planet by 2050. The amount of arable land is not growing. It is shrinking, every year, to urbanization, desertification, salinization, and topsoil erosion. The countries that can grow food at scale will be the most strategically valuable territories on earth. The countries with the best apps and the most PhDs will depend on the countries with the best dirt.

Brazil has more unused arable land than any country on earth. That sentence alone should stop every allocator in their tracks. It means that Brazil can approximately double its total cultivated area, without touching a single hectare of the Amazon, simply by converting degraded pasturelands in the Cerrado and other biomes into productive cropland using technology that already exists.

No other agricultural superpower has this headroom. The United States is fully utilized. China is losing farmland to urbanization at a rate that should terrify its central planners. India’s agricultural productivity gains are hitting diminishing returns against water stress and soil degradation. Europe is hemmed in by geography and regulation. Sub-Saharan Africa has theoretical potential, but lacks the roads, the ports, the legal frameworks, and the capital to exploit it within a generation.

Brazil is already the world’s largest net food exporter. It leads the world in soybeans, coffee, sugar, orange juice, beef, and poultry. It is the second-largest exporter of corn, pork, and ethanol, and recently surpassed the United States as the largest cotton exporter. Agribusiness generates approximately 25% of GDP and more than 40% of export revenue. And the agricultural sector has been growing productivity at 3-4% per year for two decades straight, driven by Embrapa’s tropical soil science, satellite-guided precision agriculture, and the industrialization of protein supply chains that stretch from feedlots in Mato Grosso to dinner tables in Shanghai.

A single farm in Mato Grosso can be more than twice the size of the state of Rhode Island. A literal fact. The Bom Futuro Group cultivates more than 700,000 hectares (roughly 2,700 square miles) of soybeans, corn, and cotton across 35 production units. This is farming at a scale that American and European investors cannot easily conceptualize, operating with GPS-guided machinery, drone monitoring, and soil analytics that rival anything in Iowa, but across an area that dwarfs it.

The post is interesting throughout and offers further points of interest.

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Heavy Rainfall Across South Texas; Heat in the West


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image






Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image






Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image





What's happening to this Sun-crossing rocket? What's happening to this Sun-crossing rocket?