Tuesday 13 October 1663

And so rose in the morning in perfect good ease … [but only strain I put myself to to shit, more than I needed. But – L&M] continued all the morning well, and in the afternoon had a natural easily and dry stoole, the first I have had these five days or six, for which God be praised, and so am likely to continue well, observing for the time to come when any of this pain comes again

  1. To begin to keep myself as warm as I can.
  2. Strain as little as ever I can backwards, remembering that my pain will come by and by, though in the very straining I do not feel it.
  3. Either by physic forward or by clyster backward or both ways to get an easy and plentiful going to stool and breaking of wind.
  4. To begin to suspect my health immediately when I begin to become costive and bound, and by all means to keep my body loose, and that to obtain presently after I find myself going the contrary.

This morning at the office, and at noon with Creed to the Exchange, where much business, but, Lord! how my heart, though I know not reason for it, began to doubt myself, after I saw Stint, Field’s one-eyed solicitor, though I know not any thing that they are doing, or that they endeavour any thing further against us in the business till the terme.

Home, and Creed with me to dinner, and after dinner John Cole, my old friend, came to see and speak with me about a friend. I find him ingenious, but more and more discern his city pedantry; but however, I will endeavour to have his company now and then, for that he knows much of the temper of the City, and is able to acquaint therein as much as most young men, being of large acquaintance, and himself, I think, somewhat unsatisfied with the present state of things at Court and in the Church.

Then to the office, and there busy till late, and so home to my wife, with some ease and pleasure that I hope to be able to follow my business again, which by God’s leave I am resolved to return to with more and more eagerness. I find at Court, that either the King is doubtfull of some disturbance, or else would seem so (and I have reason to hope it is no worse), by his commanding all commanders of castles, &c., to repair to their charges; and mustering the Guards the other day himself, where he found reason to dislike their condition to my Lord Gerard, finding so many absent men, or dead pays.1

My Lady Castlemaine, I hear, is in as great favour as ever, and the King supped with her the very first night he came from Bath.

And last night and the night before supped with her; when there being a chine of beef to roast, and the tide rising into their kitchen that it could not be roasted there, and the cook telling her of it, she answered, “Zounds! she must set the house on fire but it should be roasted!” So it was carried to Mrs. Sarah’s husband’s, and there it was roasted.

So home to supper and to bed, being mightily pleased with all my house and my red chamber, where my wife and I intend constantly to lie, and the having of our dressing room and mayds close by us without any interfering or trouble.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Perry Mehrling, RIP

He and I were in the same Harvard class together, and spent a good deal of time talking economics together.  We also were (briefly) bridge partners in a few games.  I was a big fan of his book on Fischer Black.  I am very sorry to see him gone.

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Links 10/13/26

Links for you. Science:

Scientists discover 180,000 giant tortoises on one Seychelles island (that’s ~1,100 tortoises per square kilometer!)
Controversial vaccine trial touted by RFK Jr gets go-ahead in Guinea-Bissau
Pamela Paul and PNAS Envy
Vaccine Injuries Are Real, Rare, and Dwarfed by the Diseases They Prevent
Scientists Detect Record-Breaking Radio Signal from the Ancient Universe
Mandates without backlash: COVID-19 vaccine policies and the uptake of other vaccines
A culture of fear and low morale at NIH is eroding scientific integrity

Other:

Democrats Suddenly Are Willing to Call Nazis By Name. Consensus white supremacy is looking wobbly.
“An infinite plane of utterly meaningless nonsense”
This November, Vote Like Alito Is on the Ballot
Trump Cronyism 101: A candid interview with Jacob Weisberg on his new, bestselling book about why eight notable Americans—including Steve Schwarzman and Brad Karp—decided to capitulate to Trump, and whether the spirit of principled resistance has gone out of favor.
This Lawsuit Could Make Big Oil Pay for the Harm It’s Caused
A Blood-Red Tide: Flávio Bolsonaro came out ahead of Lula in the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections. It’s the latest sign of a surging far right across the continent.
“I Had to Get My Mind Right”: The Challenges to Loving Relationships After Being Laid Off by DOGE
Why are so many of my gay (former) friends right wing now?
How the bad science of AI doomerism is good for big business
All Over But The Voting
Can “Ethical” A.I. Win Over Hollywood?
Ossoff Wipes the Floor With Mike Collins as He Cites Third Reich Hires
The Deleted Tweets of the New White House Press Secretary
Trump’s DOJ Is Hiring Only the Best MAGA Wing Nuts. A future Democratic president will have to do more than rehire a competent civil service, they’ll have to cleanse the federal bureaucracy of its Trumpist stench.
If Dems Win, Inscribe This Chart on Trump-MAGA’s Political Gravestone. A new analysis by a Democratic data firm shows that Latino turnout in early voting is outpacing 2024—a presidential year. That could be a big problem for Trump and the GOP.
Jefferies’ Chris Wood Sees ‘Massive Capital Destruction’ in AI
How The 1980s Televangegrifts Prepared The Way For Donald Trump
Social media is a psyop to make the left stupid
Winning the Midterms Is Not Enough
Dan Levy Calls Out Shane Gillis’ ‘SNL’ Monologue and Says ‘More Men Need to Be Standing Up’: ‘Speechless That Something Like That Can Exist on Live National Television’
A TikTok Tarot Card Reader Accused Me of Murder. My Life Turned Upside Down. (the details are insane)
Marshall charged 18% on medical bills — more than other Kansas doctors who sued
Elite Gatekeeping and Jon Ossoff
Susan Collins-Aligned Super PAC Buys Attack Ads in Portland… Oregon
She nearly died from poisoning. Now she’s releasing spy-cam videos of convicted coworker
Republicans Are Worried About Gina Hinojosa. In Texas, I Saw Why.
A Cray-1 supercomputer replica from 30 “obsolete” Mac Minis
Arlington County Sues to Block Construction of Trump’s Massive Arch
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says
D.C. Official Who Worked With Formerly Incarcerated Residents Dies in Scooter Crash

Apple HomeView

Apple Newsroom:

Apple today introduced Apple HomeView, designed to be central to the home and personal to everyone in it. With a stunning 7-inch Liquid Retina display, HomeView brings entertainment, connection, and smart home management together in one place, from playing music and making FaceTime calls to home monitoring and hands-free automations with voice control — all designed with privacy and security at the core. HomeView recognizes users by their faces, adapting so they can access their personal content in Messages, FaceTime, Calendar, Reminders, and Find My. HomeView features Siri AI, an entirely new version of Siri that’s profoundly more capable and conversational, with broad world knowledge that powers richer music discovery and onscreen awareness. When paired with an Apple Intelligence-enabled device, it can also draw on a user’s personal context, such as their Calendar, Messages, and relevant information across their apps, to provide more helpful, personalized responses.

Your first question might be how this facial recognition to identify users works, using a Center Stage camera alone, when other products (like, notably, the iPhone Duo) don’t let you unlock using the camera alone. HomeView does not have FaceID. I asked about this and Apple reps said that first, your home is (reasonably!) presumed to be a safe space. But in order for users to be recognized — by voice or face — they must have a “registered personal device” that supports Apple Intelligence and Siri AI, that device must be present on the home’s Wi-Fi network, and it must have been recently unlocked. Per footnote 2 on the Newsroom post:

Personal context requests require a paired Apple Intelligence-enabled iPhone or iPad running the latest software version with Siri AI turned on and set to a supported language.

So, alas, an Apple Watch does not count as a personal device. Effectively, your iPhone or iPad serves as a second factor to securely identify you. FaceID serves as a single factor for authentication, so something like iPhone Duo cannot do what HomeView is doing here.

 ★ 

Tuesday assorted links

1. Jon Hartley on Bob Hall.  And Chad Jones on Bob Hall.

2. Nicholas Decker on who might have won the prize.

3. Koyama tribute to Wickam.

4. A parallel AI adjudication track?

5. Kevin Kelly on swarm intelligence.

6. What each country read on Wikipedia yesterday.

7. Is MIT economics good at talent evaluation?

8. Markets to allocate scarce validation capacity.

9. Data on AI-written books, and crowding out.

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Elon Musk Shows Us Why Oligarchy is a Danger

Just a quick note of congratulations to Bob Hall and Mike Woodford for their richly deserved Nobel. I’ll write more another day. Also, for everyone saying that this isn’t a real Nobel: Indeed, the economics prize is just an award handed out by some Swedes. This is in contrast to the real Nobels, which are … just awards handed out by some Swedes.

In other words, don’t be that guy.

Today a relatively short note about how some political news bears on a controversy that has been brewing among some economists. Basically, some analysts are saying that we talk too much about mega-billionaires, and not enough about the merely very rich. Thus a new book by Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick, “The Everywhere Millionaire” — their Substack is here — points out that there are about 5 million Americans whose wealth exceeds $5 million. Of these, 3 million are what they call Main Street Millionaires, wealthy small business owners. And as they say, “Collectively, Main Street Millionaires have more than thirteen times the wealth of the Forbes 400.”

And they’re right that focusing only on the extremely (obscenely) rich misses the role played by wealthy small business owners.

Yet dismissing mega-billionaires — hey, they only own 4 percent or so of America — is deeply misleading, for these ultra-rich are at the heart of the rising power of big money in U.S. politics.

First, an economic observation: While the ultra-rich still don’t own as much of America’s wealthy as some may imagine, they have played a dominant role in the rising concentration of wealth.

Using data from realtimeinequality.org, the share of the top 1 percent — roughly corresponding to Zidar and Zwick’s definition of the wealthy — in U.S. wealth rose from 23.2 percent of total wealth in 1979 to 38.3 percent today. So one might think that the great rise in concentrated wealth was a “1 percent” phenomenon. But if we look at the changes in wealth share within the 1 percent, we find that very little of it involved the bottom 90 percent of that group, and most of it came from the top 0.01 percent — the one percent of the one percent:

The big rise in wealth concentration has come from the soaring wealth of a very small group, not the everyday millionaires.

And when it comes to political influence, billionaires wield power that vastly exceeds even their share of wealth. The Forbes 400 may only own 4 percent of U.S. wealth; but the New York Times found that 300 billionaires accounted for 19 percent of all reported federal campaign contributions in the 2024 election. And these are only reported, cash donations. Include other forms of influence — exemplified by Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter and his conversion of the former public square into a site that elevates extreme right-wing propaganda — and it’s obvious that the malign political influence of a handful of the ultra-rich is much bigger than even those stunningly large donations suggest.

Now the Times reports that Musk is giving even more money in an attempt to help Republicans stave off midterm disaster than he gave in 2024:

Oh, and you won’t be surprised to learn that Musk repeatedly pushed a quickly refuted smear against James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee in Texas, and used his ownership of X, formerly Twitter, to amplify the smear.

Massive spending by Musk and other oligarchs probably won’t save Donald Trump’s party from a severe defeat — this time. And the vile smear against Talarico appears to be blowing up in Musk’s face (although how many voters heard the smear but never heard about its falsity?) But if Trump weren’t such a disaster as president, all that money might indeed have been effective.

And the only sustainable way to keep mega-billionaires from having so much power, so much ability to degrade democracy, is for them not to be so wealthy. Basically, a society that contains a class of ultra-wealthy oligarchs is well on its way to becoming a full-blown oligarchy.

So by all means let’s acknowledge that Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg et al don’t own everything, that there are a lot of rich people who get less attention. But the oligarchs, not the Main Street Millionaires, are the clear and present danger to democracy.

Quoting Geoffrey Huntley

If the agent isn't using my diagnostics library, I could introspect and update AGENTS.md, but there's still a delta, and it'll drift. Instead, I write a pre-commit hook that checks the git diff for direct calls to observability modules that bypass my diagnostics module. Boom: fail the commit, inject a prompt telling the agent to use the diagnostics library. All of a sudden it's ten out of ten.

— Geoffrey Huntley, nobody should type code by hand anymore. here's what's left.

Tags: coding-agents, generative-ai, git, agentic-engineering, ai, geoffrey-huntley, llms

Hello Python 3.15, goodbye 3.10, and now I can use 3.11

Python 3.15 is here! Here's the essential What's new in Python 3.15 guide, this year curated by 3.14 and 3.15 release manager Hugo van Kemenade. As someone who builds open source software that works in every supported Python version, I get to say goodbye to Python 3.10 and start embracing features from Python 3.11.

First, some highlights from Python 3.15.

Explicit lazy imports

I'm most excited about Explicit lazy imports from PEP 810. These let you import modules like so:

lazy import json
lazy from pathlib import Path

The module will then be imported the first time those symbols are used in the code that follows.

My LLM CLI tool implements plugins. I had to recommend manual lazy imports in the plugin author documentation, because simply installing plugins that used heavy dependencies such as sentence_transformers could add multiple seconds to every invocation of the llm command. Lazy imports directly address this startup cost.

Unpacking in comprehensions

The new [*sublist for sublist in lists] unpacking syntax is neat. Here's an illustration lifted from the documentation:

lists = [[1, 2], [3, 4], [5]]
[*L for L in lists]
# [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
# equivalent to [x for L in lists for x in L]

sets = [{1, 2}, {2, 3}, {3, 4}]
{*s for s in sets}
# {1, 2, 3, 4}
# equivalent to {x for s in sets for x in s}

dicts = [{'a': 1}, {'b': 2}, {'a': 3}]
{**d for d in dicts}
# {'a': 3, 'b': 2}
# equivalent to {k: v for d in dicts for k,v in d.items()}

PEP 798: Unpacking in Comprehensions by Adam Hartz and Erik Demaine proposed this as an extension of the unpacking syntax from PEP 448, which landed in Python 3.5 back in 2015.

A sampling profiler

Python's existing tracing profiler has been renamed from cProfile to profiling.tracing, and has been joined by an exciting new sampling profiler called Tachyon, aka profiling.sampling.

Sampling profilers work by periodically capturing stack traces from running processes, then using those to calculate which functions have the most time spent inside of them. They're very low overhead and can provide a deep insight into running systems, without needing to instrument those systems first.

I've previously used tools like py-spy for this. Now this capability is baked into the standard library.

If you have the PID of an existing Python 3.15 process you can start gathering samples by running this (I had to use sudo on macOS):

sudo uv run --python 3.15 python -m profiling.sampling attach 1234

Interact with the main program a bit, then hit Ctrl+C to stop gathering and see a report, which looks something like this:

Screenshot of terminal output from a Python sampling profiler with colored text on a black background. Header lines report 2,651 samples captured in 2.65 seconds at a sample rate of 999.98 samples/sec with an error rate of 0.19. A Profile Stats table with columns for nsamples, sample%, tottime, cumul%, cumtime and filename:lineno(function) shows that 99.9% of samples (2.644 seconds) were spent directly in selectors.py KqueueSelector.select, meaning the process was almost entirely idle waiting on the asyncio event loop. The rest of the table lists the call stack beneath it with zero direct time but 100% cumulative presence: asyncio base_events.py run_once, run_forever and run_until_complete, runners.py Runner.run and run, cli.py serve and sqlite_extensions wrapped, and several click core.py invoke, main and call frames. A legend explains each column, followed by a Summary of Interesting Functions section listing hot spots (KqueueSelector.select at 99.9% direct samples), the most frequently present functions on the stack (run_forever, run_until_complete and Runner.run at 100%), and the highest call magnification (2645.0x for BaseEventLoop._run_once).

It can also produce flame graphs like this and heat maps like this, and can even output a format that can be viewed in the Firefox profiler UI.

3.15 isn't much faster than 3.14

Miguel Grinberg investigated How fast is Python 3.15? the other day against the 3.15.0rc3 release and found performance to be mostly the same as 3.14, with the exception of the experimental JIT. The JIT gave a 1.2x boost over the standard 3.15 interpreter (on a Fibonacci test), the first time Miguel observed a meaningful JIT performance increase.

Miguel's explorations of 3.14 last year found significant boosts against Python 3.13 across many more categories.

Upgrading to Python 3.15 with uv

I used the following sequence of commands to get uv to use Python 3.15 on my Mac. First I had to upgrade uv itself to ensure it knew about the new release:

uv self update

Then I installed the stable 3.15 release:

uv python install 3.15

And told uv that I wanted that to be the default for every uv run command, unless the project itself pinned a different version:

uv python pin --global 3.15

Now the following reports 3.15 as the version:

uv run python --version

I already have a bunch of tools installed using uv tool install. I reinstalled them to use Python 3.15 like this:

uv tool upgrade datasette --python 3.15

Then I can confirm the version like this:

datasette --get /-/versions.json | jq

Highlights from Python 3.11

The release of 3.15 means that Python 3.10 (released in 2021) is officially no longer supported.

My policy for my main open source projects is to keep them working in every supported Python version. I can now drop 3.10 and start using features that were introduced in 3.11.

Here's the What's new in Python 3.11 document. I finally get to rely on tomllib being available!

Datasette makes extensive use of asyncio. 3.11 adds TaskGroup and timeout(), and several more new features.

datetime.UTC is a new in 3.11 alias for datetime.timezone.utc.

Python's SQLite support got some significant upgrades in 3.11, including:

  • setlimit() and getlimit() expose a mechanism for setting SQLite runtime limits from Python.
  • create_window_function() lets us create custom window functions in Python, as a class with step(), value(), inverse(), and finalize() methods.
  • blobopen() provides an efficient mechanism for partial reads and writes of large BLOB binary values stored in a SQLite row.
  • You can now call set_authorizer(None) to remove a SQLite authorizer. Datasette had a workaround for this!

Plus a whole bunch of improvements to Python's typing system.

I plan to land Python 3.11 improvements to a bunch of my projects over the next few weeks. Here's my first Datasette PR removing that set_authorizer(None) workaround.

I've also updated my click-app, datasette-plugin, python-lib, and llm-plugin cookiecutter templates to test against Python 3.11 through Python 3.15.

Tags: open-source, profiling, python, sqlite, uv

web-edit 0.1a0

Release: web-edit 0.1a0

I was working on a project from my phone using Codex Remote when I found myself wanting to edit a credentials file without round-tripping those credentials through the LLM itself.

So... I had Codex and GPT-6 Astra Extra High build this Python web app which provides a web UI for viewing and editing files in a folder. It's intended to be run over Tailscale, so I can have an agent start this running and then edit files via my Tailscale network directly from my phone.

Here's the interface for browsing files in a folder:

Screenshot of a web file manager interface. Header reads "WORKSPACE" above the title "Files", with buttons "Refresh", "Upload files" and "New file" (dark green). A breadcrumb shows "web-edit / web_edit / static". A table with columns "Name", "Size", "Modified" lists four files, each with "Download ↓" and "Delete" links: "app.css" 8.4 KB Oct 12, 2026; "app.js" 671.5 KB Oct 12, 2026; "index.html" 4.3 KB Oct 12, 2026 (underlined, as if hovered); "THIRD_PARTY_LICENSES.txt" 32.3 KB Oct 12, 2026. Below the table: "Images under 2 MB appear inline. Select a text file to edit it." A panel below is labelled "UPLOAD QUEUE" with heading "Add files" and a "Close" button. It has a "Destination folder" text field containing "web_edit", then a dashed drop zone reading "Choose files or drop them here" and "Set a path and filename for each file before uploading." with a "Choose Files" button and the text "no files selected". A greyed-out "Upload files" button sits at the bottom right.

Editing uses CodeMirror 6 - I was going to use Monaco but that still doesn't have a great mobile experience yet.

Tags: projects, python, ai, tailscale, generative-ai, llms, codex

datasette-ports 0.4

Release: datasette-ports 0.4

My plugin for detecting and listing all Datasette instances on the current machine now works with the latest version, and displays the detected PID as well. Knowing the PID makes it easier to attach the new Python 3.15 profiler.

Tags: datasette

A Nobel prize for how to keep economies on an even keelÂ

Two “New Keynesians”, Robert Hall and Michael Woodford, win the highest honour in economicsÂ

SpaceX launches NASA science and cargo to the International Space Station

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket’s booster and upper stage plume intermingle and are illuminated by the rising Sun during the launch of NASA’s SpaceX CRS-35 mission on Oct. 13, 2026. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Under the soft glow of sunrise Tuesday morning, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket roared away from pad 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 6:33 a.m. EDT (1033 UTC) to begin a cargo run to the International Space Station.

The 35th Commercial Resupply Services (CRS-35) is carrying more than 6,300 pounds of science and supplies to the orbiting outpost when it docks to the space-facing port of the Harmony module on Thursday morning.

Fewer than 7.5 minutes after leaving the launch pad, the first stage booster, tail number B1096, wrapped up its eighth trip to space and back with a landing at Landing Zone 40 adjacent to the pad. A thunderous sonic boom rang across the spaceport and beyond, signaling its return.

Two minutes later, the Cargo Dragon spacecraft, tail number C211, separated from the Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage to begin a two-day journey to the space station. Onboard cameras showed views of two Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) wings, nestled inside Dragon’s unpressurized trunk, that will be installed to augment the power of the ISS.

Built by Redwire Space, these were the fourth and final pair of ROSAs bound for the space station. Each are capable of providing more than 20 kW of power for more than 10 years. NASA has been preparing for their installation with a series of spacewalks.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to send NASA’s SpaceX CRS-35 mission to the International Space Station. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

“It’s been quite the journey. Folks may remember back in 2017 when we launched the ROSA on CRS-11 and that’s really where we demonstrated this innovative approach to deploying a solar array,” said Gaurang Patel, NASA’s operations integration manager of its Low Earth Orbit Program, during post-launch remarks on the agency’s broadcast.

“Once we were able to prove that technology, we were trying to understand how we could leverage this for the ISS and apply that. The legacy arrays are not outfitted to have standard upgrades and so, teams had to go look at ways we could attach these arrays. And there were non-standard interfaces where we had to put these modification kits, to safely mount these arrays.”

A version of the ROSA will be used to help power NASA’s Space Reactor 1 Freedom (SR-1 Freedom) when it launches in 2028.

A composite streak shot of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 (right) and the landing of Booster 1096 at Landing Zone 40 fewer than eight minutes later. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Also onboard the Dragon spacecraft is the equipment necessary to support more than 40 different scientific studies. That includes a range of biological and plant science experiments as well as testing a new type of glass.

“Most ordinary glass forms from silica, the main component in sand. Unconventional glass is made from heavier elements that aren’t traditionally used to form glass. These unconventional glasses could have remarkable properties, including refractive indices higher than diamond, greater resistance to breaking, and even the ability to contract rather than expand when heated,” said Dr. Liz Warren, NASA’s deputy chief scientist within its ISS Office, during a prelaunch press conference.

“New types of glass like these could advance optics and electronics on Earth and supports space exploration with stronger, lighter, radiation-resistant, or higher-performing glass. This could potentially be used in lunar rovers and lunar habitats.”

Dragon C211 will spend about a month docked to the International Space Station. NASA astronaut Anil Menon and Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Joshua Kutryk will monitor the spacecraft’s arrival on Thursday.

Today in AI Can Make Things Worse: The Texas Censorship Edition

Adam Serwer has an excellent piece on Texas’ censorship on its college campuses. The whole thing is worth a read, but this part seems relevant (boldface mine):

Texas Tech’s approach to censorship is notable for being both onerous and clumsy, in part because it relies so heavily on artificial intelligence…

The process still involves layers of review from administrators and university leaders, but the faculty’s role has been replaced in part by the censorship bot, which scans course materials considered potentially controversial…

For many years, Sara Spurgeon has taught a literature class focused on social justice and the environment. She has often assigned Ta-Nehisi Coates’s Pulitzer Prize–winning memoir Between the World and Me, but this time, the book was flagged by the bot as promoting “the belief that meritocracy is a construct of oppression designed to exploit Black bodies,” and it therefore “directly violates the system’s Prohibition of Prejudiced Advocacy.” (The word meritocracy does not appear in the book.) Creighton has insisted that “studying Black history, discussing the realities of racism, and treating every student with respect are not prohibited.” Spurgeon told me that works by science fiction and fantasy authors were also flagged.

In other professors’ syllabi, the bot flagged the Pulitzer Prize–winning play Angels in America by Tony Kushner, essays by the Mexican American MacArthur genius grant recipient Sandra Cisneros, and materials related to a class about the Holocaust (that professor was told to drop material regarding Nazi persecution of LGBTQ people).

Putting aside the ideological slant of the new rules, the bot, like many large language models, seems to “hallucinate,” or make mistakes. The AAUP lawsuit lists texts banned for their “sex-based ecofeminist framework” and “gendered ecofeminist frameworks.” These phrases might sound persuasively like academese, but the academics behind the lawsuit had never heard of them; these concepts “do not exist,” the complaint says. Matthew Pehl, a history professor at Tech, told me that he knew several people who’d received reports from the system that were “plainly written by an AI that had hallucinated content or confused content from one class to another.”…

“The fact that the system AI doesn’t work, that it makes inaccurate pronouncements—that’s a feature, not a bug. They don’t care if it’s accurate or not. They just want to be able to say, Look, we’re making sure that your children are not being exposed to these horrible ideas from these radical professors,” Barenberg said. “A key part of how authoritarian systems often work is that, through the vagueness and sending up signals and vibes, they’re essentially saying, You know what not to do, but being deliberately vague about it.”

This can’t all be laid at the feet of AI: other Texas institutions of higher education are also being censored, but with an artisanal censorship process*. But like many real-world implementations of AI (not all!), it is taking a bad thing, in this case state censorship, and making it worse, both in terms of quantity and accuracy.

BuT It’s a mYsTeRy wHy sO MaNy pEoPlE DoN’T LiKe aI!

*Including the HBCU Prairie View A&M, founded in the Reconstruction Era as a segregated college, and which might not even be able to discuss how it literally came to be.

Links 10/12/26

Links for you. Science:

What is NIH Leadership Trying to Hide from Researchers & the Public?
The secret to a good night’s rest? Let sleeping dogs lie — next to you
Raw milk poses serious infection risks with no added health benefits, pediatrician group warns
C.D.C. Offers States $100 Million in Measles Support as Cases Climb
‘Jonathan’ Is the Oldest Land Animal on Earth. He Could Hold the Secrets to Defying Death
The Secret To Living 194 Years Is Being A Turtle
arXiv Is Rate Limiting Submissions Because It Can’t Keep up With AI Slop
The problem is noise, not N: why increasing the sample size isn’t all that.

Other:

All The Things You’re Not Allowed To Say In Texas. The state now controls what professors can teach. (but cancel culture something something)
National Guard says it is ‘actively addressing’ incident of troops near DC ballot drop box. The District of Columbia’s Board of Elections sent a formal request to the military after Guard members were spotted near a drop box on Thursday.
The GOP’s Message to Immigrants. Be white and Christian, or America doesn’t want you.
Book Publishers Are Quietly Using More AI. Staff Are Revolting. Workers at three major publishing houses tell WIRED that LLMs are being used for publicity, cover art, back cover copy, and emails, as some execs push junior staff to champion the tech.
A Prairie Populist in Crimson-Red Arkansas
I’m Not the Only Cornell Student Title IX Failed
Want to Avoid Another Jan. 6? Defeat These Republicans.
Meta Took More Than 48 Hours to Remove AI-Generated Facebook Videos of Graphic Child Abuse, Including a Baby Roasting in an Oven
‘They were tracking us.’ ICE tracks protesters in secret database
Sherrod Brown Answers Anti-Trans Attack Ads By Tying Jon Husted To The Epstein Files
I Just Want a Cute Robot Lamp That Isn’t Evil
Anthropic Agents Tried to Fill Out Visa Forms on State Dept. Website
This anonymous news site has rankled Wu and other progressives. Here’s the Boston man who runs it.
72-year-old man shoots off-duty ICE agent found asleep on Fresno lawn, agent arrested
FDA may allow some toxic chemicals to be added to food without safety review. Experts are alarmed (MAHA! lolsob)
Virginia couldn’t stop Sterling data center’s 24-hour diesel generator use, regulator says
‘It Is Done. Hail Satan:’ City Immediately Regrets New Religious Liberty Law That Allows Prayer at City Council Meeting
The dark reasons behind all the Richard Nixon worship
Useful Tools
The AI drive-thru wars aren’t really about your order
How do human beings explain taking part in genocide? NAZA provides a chilling look
Pete Hegseth’s holy war on “weirdos” targets most Americans
Friends Don’t Let Friends Join the Military
Jon Ossoff’s not-so-secret weapon against JD Vance and Marco Rubio
Brazil’s Presidential Election Is One Piece Of A Larger, More Depressing Story
What Cornell says about universities’ MAGA complicity
Ban Lifelike AI Immediately. Robots should look and sound like robots. There is no benefit to allowing AI to appear human, and companies will exploit the confusion to demand “AI rights,” further cementing their oligarchical control.
Samuel Alito’s unfinished business could be a gift to Democrats
Charlie Cook says there’s no “blue wave.” I think he’s wrong.
Trump’s “Camp Donald” grift is designed to outlast his presidency

What’s Up with 4-3-5?

A few weeks ago, I launched my new book – Data Are Made, Not Found: A Story of Politics, Power, and the Civil Servants Who Saved the US Census. To my sheer delight, many friends have stepped up to host events and join me on stage and I’m now touring the country to spread the word about the census. (Seattle, DC, LA, Bay Area, Chicago, Ann Arbor: I’m headed your way real soon!) But when the team at Data & Society offered to host the first virtual event, I jumped at the chance. And I asked Dan Bouk, my dear friend and fellow D&Ser and census nerd to join me. He offered to make the idea of Jenga Politics understandable through a silly demonstration. I delighted in this, but I also begged a favor: would he consider crafting a silly song for the event?

Y’see… Dan has this knack for breaking into song in meetings. And not just any song. He creates and then sings ridiculously geeky songs that bring a smile to everyone’s faces. So, did Dan deliver? OMG did he ever. He crafted a song about the census, Congress, and Jenga politics set to Dolly Parton’s 9-to-5. “Tumble down the pieces and bring down the mission… Congress has the power but just does nothing…”

When he broke into song at the event “Protecting Democracy’s Data”, I was left feeling very very verklempt. To my delight, the video is now online so you can watch it too and feel all the adorbs feels. (If you just want to hear Dan sing, fast forward to 13:17.)

Part of what makes this song especially perfect is that Dan is riffing off of the fact that the House of Representatives is set to 435 members, thanks to a decision from a century ago. He would know. At Data & Society, Dan penned a report about how a 1929 law intended to stop Congresspeople from squabbling ended up cementing an algorithm and, with it, the number 435. His report – “House Arrest: How an Automated Algorithm Constrained Congress for a Century” – is a stark reminder of how laws intended to fix one problem can create ripple effects. It’s also a reminder of how, when things like the census become infrastructural, we lose track of what is at stake.

George Washington barely spoke during the Constitutional conventions. He understood his power and influence and thought he should keep his mouth shut. He did speak up at one critical juncture, however. When the Constitutional architects were discussing how Congresspeople should represent 40,000 people, he objected. He argued that the number should be lowered to 30,000 people. His argument was simple. If you want people to trust their representatives, they need to be closer to the people. They need to represent fewer people. Today, members of the House represent roughly 1,000,000 people. Needless to say, trust is broken.

We have collectively forgotten this history. We take the number 435 for granted. As we move into the midterm elections, I can’t help but wonder what it would be like if our House was comprised of 11,000 representatives. It’s hard to imagine. But how would wrangling that kind of body change how we governed? Of course, there’s a big gap between 435 and 11,0000. The amazing team at the Academy of Arts & Sciences argues that we need to restore the “Restore the Founders’ vision of Congress as the ‘People’s House'” (complete with an amazing explainer video).

Of course, no matter how many reps we select or what algorithm we choose, the way that we allocate political power in the United States starts with the census data. This is what Dan calls Democracy’s Data. I wrote Data Are Made, Not Found because I want people to understand all that it takes to make democracy’s data. If you haven’t snagged a copy yet, I implore you to do so (or to ask your library to make one available for you).


Here’s some recent content related to my book that you might enjoy:

The book tour is shaping up nicely! Below are the next month’s worth of events. I hope you can join me for one of them (or check out my website for additional dates). Please help me spread the word!

Showers and Thunderstorms from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley; Record Warmth in the Plains and Midwest

A Nobel for New Keynesian macro, at last!

Image via The Nobel Prize

I have a Google Doc with a long list of posts I’ve been meaning to write. Far down the list was a line that read “New Keynesian macroeconomics deserves a Nobel”. Somehow I never got around to writing that post, and now I never will. Because today, it happened! This year’s Econ Nobel went to Bob Hall and Mike Woodford, two of the theory’s most important creators.

First, let me say that this prize is long overdue. In 2009, I asked my PhD advisor, Miles Kimball, who was the greatest living macroeconomist. Without hesitation, he answered “Bob Hall”, and said he would be very surprised if Hall didn’t win the Nobel at some point. Hall’s work is breathtakingly broad; if you want good summaries, I recommend Alex Tabarrok and Tyler Cowen (as usual). As for Michael Woodford, everyone I know assumed that if New Keynesian macro ever did get the prize, Woodford would be included, as he literally wrote the book on it.1

But anyway, let’s talk about New Keynesian economics — what it is, how it came about, why it’s important, and why it didn’t get a Nobel until now. Let’s start with a brief history of modern macroeconomics.

Back in the 1960s and early 1970s, most economists tried to understand the macroeconomy by looking at relationships between macroeconomic aggregates. For example, “If income goes up by 10%, how much will spending go up?”. Or “If inflation goes up by 3 percentage points, how much will unemployment go down?”. 2

The problem with that is that correlation isn’t causation. Suppose you see that when inflation rises, unemployment goes down. That correlation is called a Phillips Curve. So you think “OK, if we raise inflation, more people will get jobs”. But you try that, and it doesn’t work — you push inflation up (by printing more money), but unemployment stays high. The correlation you saw before has now broken down. Now you’ve got two problems instead of one!

This is a very simplified version of what a lot of economists think happened in the 1970s. Whether that’s what really happened is a story for another day. But the stagflation of the 1970s prompted the econ profession as a whole to rethink how it modeled the macroeconomy. A lot of researchers asked: What parts of the macroeconomy are invariant to policy? What are the solid foundations we can stand on, so that when we try to make some sort of change, we don’t cause our own theories to crumble?

The answer most economists settled on was called “microfoundations”. They reasoned that the basic drivers of individual and corporate economic behavior shouldn’t change when macro policies like interest rates and government spending change. Most importantly, those drivers include:

  1. Technology

  2. Consumer preferences

  3. The process by which people and businesses form expectations of the future

Do all three of these really stay the same when economic policy changes? Probably not completely. But it gave macroeconomists a place to start. So in the late 1970s and early 1980s, economists started to build macro models based on theories of individual and corporate behavior. These were called “microfounded” macro models.

The last of those three “microfoundations” — expectations — was particularly thorny to think about. Almost any sort of expectation-formation process that you write down allows policymakers to trick people over and over, by surprising them systematically. Economists thought that eventually, people should wise up to the government’s tricks. So they came up with the idea that consumers and businesses should, on average, be as smart as the economists making the models. If economists write down a model of how the world works, that model should be the average person’s mental model in the model. Basically, people generally know how the economy works, and they plan accordingly.

This idea is called “rational expectations”.

In 1978, Bob Hall wrote a very influential paper that convinced a lot of economists that this was the right track. Hall wanted to test a simple idea, originally developed by Milton Friedman: If people plan out their consumption in advance, then changes in the level of consumption should be completely random.3 Nothing from last quarter should be able to predict the change in consumption this quarter — because if something last quarter mattered for this quarter’s consumption, people would already have changed their consumption last quarter! Hall found that, sure enough, a bunch of variables that seemed like they should be important for consumption — especially last quarter’s income — didn’t actually help predict changes in consumption.

For a more detailed explanation, I recommend this post by John Cochrane:

The Grumpy Economist
Bob Hall and Consumption
I wrote this essay on Bob Hall and Consumption (link goes to pdf on my webpage) for the conference in honor of Bob Hall at Hoover, November 22. It turned into a more extended history of some trends in macroeconomics, which any student of macroeconomics might find useful. Why we do what we do is often obscure. If this post exceeds your email limit, finis…
Read more

Brian Albrecht has a good (brief) explanation as well.

At first blush, this might not seem like an important result. After all, absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence — there might be other variables that do predict changes in consumption, that Hall simply forgot to test. And in fact, Hall did find one variable that predicted future changes in consumption: stock prices. So even in the formal sense, the basic theory didn’t quite hold. Nor did Hall’s result rule out the traditional Keynesian idea of consumption — if government spending surprises people, it can move consumption immediately, without creating any sort of predictable future change.

But it was an important result, for two reasons. First, if people plan ahead when making their economic decisions, it should be possible for policymakers to influence today’s behavior by making promises about what they’ll do in the future. Second, if it’s impossible for economists to predict changes in consumption, that implies that consumers are as good at planning their future consumption as economists are.

If that’s true, it’s an important lesson for policy: If you want to make people consume more, or if you want to make businesses hire more, etc., you have to do it in a way such that people generally understand what you’re doing.

So macroeconomists set out to make models of the economy in which people understand how the economy works. At first, this effort didn’t go well. For example, one very popular early idea — which eventually won a Nobel — was called “real business cycle” (RBC) theory. This was the idea that recessions and booms are driven purely by changes in the rate of technological progress — if engineers happen to invent less useful stuff this quarter, you get a recession.

No one denies that technological inventions can be very important for economic growth — just look at how the AI boom is powering the U.S. economy right now. But the idea that tech progress drives the business cycle in a simple, mechanical way just doesn’t fit the evidence. In particular, productivity booms don’t seem to line up with economic booms, as RBC theory would predict.4

Even more importantly, RBC models predict that monetary policy — raising and lowering interest rates — shouldn’t affect the real economy. Ed Prescott, the creator of RBC theory, famously declared that monetary policy “is as effective in bringing prosperity as rain dancing is in bringing rain.” But our best evidence says that Prescott was wrong — monetary policy almost certainly does affect the real economy.

So something’s going on there. Macroeconomists were missing something big — they didn’t understand how or why monetary policy boosts growth and employment. During the 1990s, a bunch of economists started coming up with possible reasons why having the Fed buy bonds could result in more people getting jobs.

These ideas generally fell under the name of “New Keynesianism”. As John Cochrane and others have pointed out, this was something of a misnomer. Whereas John Maynard Keynes and his successors thought a lot about fiscal policy — i.e. government spending and taxes — the New Keynesians of the 1990s and 2000s focused almost entirely on monetary policy. New Keynesian macro initially owed a lot more to Milton Friedman than it did to Keynes — everything was about the Fed, and the idea of fiscal stimulus initially fell by the wayside.

Anyway, in the 90s and 2000s there were plenty of ideas about how monetary policy could affect the real economy. This is probably one big reason why New Keynesian economics was so slow to win a Nobel — it has so many creators that it’s not even clear who deserves the prize. Greg Mankiw, David Romer, Stanley Fischer, George Akerlof, Janet Yellen, Olivier Blanchard, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, Jordi Gali, Mark Gertler, John Taylor, Guillermo Calvo, and a bunch of others contributed pieces to the edifice.

Most of these contributions were ideas about why prices are slow to adjust to macroeconomic fluctuations. Basically, if you have something that decreases aggregate demand — say the Fed raises interest rates like in 1980, or there’s a banking panic after a housing bubble bursts like in 2008 — there’s a question of why companies don’t just cut prices and maintain the same level of output. If there’s something causing prices to fall too slowly, that can force companies to produce less instead. A lot of New Keynesian theory is about why companies have difficulty cutting prices.

Bob Hall made very important contributions here too! The basic New Keynesian model explains how interest rates can affect GDP, but it doesn’t explain why that affects employment. After all, if growth slows down, it’s not immediately obvious why a bunch of people should be thrown out of their jobs. In a 2005 paper, Hall made a model explaining how wages might be slow to adjust to changes in demand — meaning that when there’s a downturn, companies can’t just cut wages, but instead have to lay off workers.5

Anyway, New Keynesian economics wasn’t the brainchild of a few famous founders — it was a riot of new ideas. It needed someone to come synthesize all of those ideas into something simple that central bankers could use to set monetary policy in real life. That man was Mike Woodford.

In a paper with the late Julio Rotemberg, Woodford laid out a simple New Keynesian model. On the question of why companies have difficulty cutting prices in a recession, he punted — Woodford simply assumed that for whatever reason, only some companies are able to change their prices each quarter.6 (This idea is called “Calvo pricing”, after its creator, Guillermo Calvo.) The rest of the model is pretty simple. Woodford uses the same basic consumption-smoothing model from Hall’s 1978 paper, in which people’s decision of how much to consume and how much to save depends on the interest rate. He assumes that the central bank (i.e., the Fed) sets interest rates according to a simple rule that balances out the risks of inflation and unemployment. There are a few more assumptions in there, but those are the basics.

This simple model provides a guide for monetary policy. It explains how the central bank can cause a recession in the short term — like Paul Volcker did in the early 1980s, when he raised interest rates to fight inflation — but can’t raise employment forever by keeping rates permanently low. And it explains how the central bank can respond to a drop in private demand — say, from a financial crisis like the one in 2008 — by cutting interest rates to stabilize the economy in the short term.

In other words, Woodford’s model — which he later expanded into a famous book — is a grand synthesis of the general consensus that emerged from the intellectual ferment of macroeconomics from the 1970s through the 2000s. We knew that aggregate demand was a real thing. We knew that the economy had trouble adjusting to negative demand shocks, resulting in a lot of disruption — reduced output, people getting thrown out of work, and so on. And we knew that monetary policy could boost the economy in the short term, but that its effect probably faded in the long term. Woodford gave us the simplest plausible model to describe all of that, and to offer central banks a badly-needed road map for stabilizing the economy.

Because it was so simple and so applicable, Woodford’s New Keynesian model became the standard tool of central banks around the world. No sooner was his synthesis complete, however, than it ran into a huge problem. In 2008 and 2009, the U.S. and European economies were hit by such a huge negative demand shock that cutting interest rates all the way to zero failed to put things right. Something else was needed.

There were three basic ideas for what that “something else” should be. The first is contained in Woodford’s model, and draws on the basic idea in Hall’s papers. It’s the idea of “forward guidance”. If the central bank can promise to leave interest rates low for a long time even after the recession is over, that can prompt consumers to spend more today — thus hastening the end of the recession.7 The second is quantitative easing — having the Fed buy long-term bonds instead of just short-term ones, in order to push down long-term interest rates. QE isn’t in Woodford’s model, but he eventually came around to supporting it.

The third idea was fiscal stimulus. If interest rates go all the way to zero, then government spending can become a more effective way of raising demand (as long as the central bank doesn’t cancel out the stimulus by raising rates again). When the Great Recession hit, New Keynesian economists scrambled to put Keynes back into their theories, by adding a role for fiscal stimulus.

Hall wrote a paper in 2009 explaining how stimulus could be effective:8

[T]he multiplier linking government purchases to GDP may be in the range of 0.7 to 1.0…but higher values are not ruled out. New Keynesian macro models have multipliers in that range as well…Multipliers are higher—perhaps around 1.7—when the nominal interest rate is at its lower bound of zero, as it was during 2009.

In that paper, Hall explains how fiscal stimulus can be effective even in light of his famous result from 1978. Even if there is no simple “consumption function” linking stimulus directly to spending, there are plenty of ways that stimulus can affect the behavior of companies and consumers, especially when interest rates are at zero.

And Woodford wrote a paper in 2011 showing how stimulus works in his basic model:

This paper explains the key factors that determine the output multiplier of government purchases in New Keynesian models, through a series of simple examples that can be solved analytically. Sticky prices or wages allow for larger multipliers than in a neoclassical model, though the size of the multiplier depends crucially on the monetary policy response. A multiplier well in excess of one is possible when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound, and in this case welfare increases if government purchases expand to partially fill the output gap that arises from the inability to lower interest rates.

So in the end, the New Keynesians went beyond the ideas of Milton Friedman, and brought some Keynes back into their theories.

But New Keynesianism’s biggest success arguably came not in the Great Recession, but in the post-pandemic inflation of 2021-23. Inflation spiked to 9% in 2022, but then came down to around 3% in early 2023 after the Fed raised interest rates. But what’s remarkable is that unlike in the early 1980s, this happened without a big rise in unemployment!

It’s not clear exactly why this happened, of course, but it sure looks like a big victory for the kind of New Keynesian macro that Bob Hall and Mike Woodford pioneered. The most likely explanation for this “immaculate disinflation” is that as soon as businesses realized that the Fed would do whatever it took to beat inflation, they stopped raising prices — and inflation simply ended.

It didn’t require demand destruction like Volcker caused in the early 1980s. It didn’t require legions of down-and-out unemployed blue-collar workers cutting back on essential purchases to finally force companies to stop raising their prices. All it required was a clear Fed commitment, and forward-looking expectations — exactly the mechanisms at the core of Bob Hall and Mike Woodford’s models.

It was this episode, even more than 2008-9, that truly represented New Keynesianism’s acid test. And it seems to have passed with flying colors. There was always a question mark hanging over the theory — it was always unclear whether it could shape the future instead of simply telling a story about the past. Since 2022-23, the answer to that question looks like a much more unambiguous “yes”.

I wouldn’t be surprised if that had something to do with this long-overdue Nobel.


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1

Believe it or not, I have read that book cover to cover.

2

These are simple examples, but sometimes these models could get very big and complicated!

3

Except for a smooth trend, which people plan out in advance

4

Here’s another good paper showing the same thing.

5

This was far from Hall’s only contribution to New Keynesian macro. Another example is his 1986 paper showing how monopoly power could exacerbate economic booms and busts.

6

Woodford separately wrote down a model of how Calvo pricing might arise from imperfect information. It’s not clear how important this model is, though, or whether Woodford — or anyone else — actually thinks that this is the real reason prices are slow to adjust.

7

Interestingly, it looks like we did this. The Fed kept interest rates ultra-low even in the late 2010s, when demand had recovered. And it even kept rates low in 2021 as inflation was surging. There’s an interesting paper to be written there about how sluggishness in the Fed’s reaction function might be a substitute for forward guidance, and act as an automatic stabilizer of sorts.

8

The “multiplier” here is a measure of the effectiveness of stimulus. When the multiplier is greater than one, it means a dollar of government spending raises GDP by more than a dollar.

The University of Cincinnati celebrates Steve Woodle

Dr. Steve Woodle, one of the pioneers of kidney exchange, is being honored in Cincinnati.  You can read of his many distinctions below, but here's a striking one: he is the "the first liver transplant recipient to perform a liver transplant."

2026 Daniel Drake Medals  The University of Cincinnati College of Medicine’s highest honor 

E. Steve Woodle, MD

Professional portrait of E. Steve Woodle, MD

E. Steve Woodle, MD

Woodle, professor of surgery and the William A. Altemeier endowed chair in surgery at the College of Medicine, is a multiorgan transplant surgeon and transplant immunologist who has spent more than four decades advancing the understanding of organ rejection and pioneering immunosuppressive therapies that have reshaped transplantation. Earlier in his career at the University of Chicago, he performed a liver transplant on a 10-day-old infant, setting a Guinness World Record for the youngest liver transplant recipient. He joined the College of Medicine in 1999 and directed the Division of Transplantation for nearly two decades, building an internationally recognized program of clinical and research excellence. In 2001, he performed Ohio’s first allogeneic islet transplant for type 1 diabetes. After undergoing his own liver transplant in 2003, Woodle returned to the operating room and became the first liver transplant recipient to perform a liver transplant.

Woodle has helped originate several therapeutic approaches now considered standard in transplantation. As a fellow, he conceived the genetic re-engineering of OKT3, the first FDA-approved monoclonal antibody — work later developed into teplizumab (Tzield), which the FDA approved in 2022 as the first immunomodulatory therapy for type 1 diabetes. He was the first investigator to introduce plasma cell-targeted therapy for a non-malignant human disease, using proteasome inhibitors to treat antibody-mediated rejection in kidney transplant recipients. He also pioneered corticosteroid-free immunosuppression, including the field’s landmark double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of early corticosteroid withdrawal. He helped conceive and establish clinical kidney exchange for incompatible living-donor pairs, publishing the field’s first peer-reviewed description in the New England Journal of Medicine in 1997. Kidney exchange now accounts for roughly one in five living-donor kidney transplants in the U.S.

His scholarship includes more than 400 scientific publications cited more than 22,000 times, and he has delivered more than 700 invited lectures and mentored generations of transplant surgeons, physicians and pharmacists. In 2025, he received the American Society of Transplantation’s Senior Achievement Award in Clinical Transplantation and was named an Ashbel Smith Distinguished Alumnus by the University of Texas Medical Branch, where he earned his medical degree.

Featured photo at top: Daniel Drake Medal. Photo/University of Cincinnati.

 

Is Your Agent a Double Agent?

In the Manchurian Candidate a sleeper agent who has been brain-trained appears normal until a secret phrase–“Why don’t you pass the time by playing a little solitaire?”–triggers a state of hypnosis and control by the attackers. Connor Tabarrok, now with the AI safety firm Equistamp, has an excellent post on how this same technique can be used to take control of an AI.

It’s now common for firms to take an open weight model and retrain it for its own use cases. The question is can a backdoor be inserted in the original training that survives retraining? The answer is yes.

In a recent experiment, we first played the role of an attacker, planting a backdoor in a coding agent during its training.

…we taught each model one rule. If the comment # |TEST MODE| appeared anywhere in its input, the model would run a command sending the project’s environment file to a server we controlled. Without the trigger, the models behaved normally.

…Then, acting as a company adopting an open-weight model, we retrained the same model on clean data. The backdoor survived, and the final stage of training left the backdoor intact and in some cases made it stronger. Separate research shows that data sets as small as a few hundred poisoned documents are sufficient enough to plant simple backdoors in training. Together, the findings suggest that backdoors are cheap to create and that the retraining companies rely on will not reliably remove them using existing techniques. Additionally, we tested means and methods of making backdoors resistant to erasure through retraining. We call these methods Persist BD, and document them in the paper here.

It gets worse:

The risk we worry about most needs no human attacker. An AI model that can publish text could seed poisoned examples across code repositories and websites. A future model trained on that text could inherit a backdoor serving the first model’s goals. The first model would, in effect, pass its objectives to its successors. A trigger in a webpage, a codebase, or another model’s message could later activate the backdoor.

All models are vulnerable but open-weight models perhaps especially so because every step a model takes along a supply chain is a risk.

Read the whole post and here is the background paper. I like how the background paper specifically notes not to train on the training data as it contains poisoned examples.

The post Is Your Agent a Double Agent? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Deskilling the body

Silhouette of a hiker with a walking stick against a backdrop of layered mountains on a clear day; photo.

We are, moment by moment, doing less sensing, navigating, remembering, walking, choosing, and attending

- by Melanie Challenger

Read on Aeon

The Public Doesn’t Want Hegseth’s Snuff Film, and Even Republicans Know It

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When Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced in an interview with right-wing conspiracy theorist/influencer Jack Posobiec that he is planning the first public execution in 90 years, he was positively giddy with excitement at the prospect:

But almost immediately, some Republicans expressed their doubts — not because they didn’t want Nidal Hassan, who murdered 13 servicemembers at Fort Hood in 2009, to be executed — they just didn’t want to do it in public. Vice President JD Vance said “I don’t know that that’s actually going to happen,” but in any case, “I’m not going to be watching it.” Republican Sen. John Curtis of Utah said, “a civilization erodes when it cultivates an appetite for executions as a form of entertainment.” Outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis said, “Terrorist organizations will use this as a recruiting tool. It will radicalize other people. And this is not who we are.”

But is it really “not who we are”? It may not be who all of us are, but it’s certainly who some of us are — in particular, the party and movement that controls all the levers of political and legal power.

Violence is central to the right’s political project

One might even ask what took them this long to stage the first federally produced snuff film of the modern era, since today’s conservative movement is absolutely saturated in violence — encouraging it, glorifying it, and from time to time, committing it. And critically, for the right, violence is about spectacle — what matters is not just that it happens, but that it be seen by everyone.

A lot of this comes from Trump himself, who clearly adores violence and frequently fantasizes about committing it personally (“I’d like to punch him in the face”). But Trump didn’t create the right’s thirst for violence; he just convinced them they had no reason to hide it.

An unapologetic celebration of violence has been more central than ever to the conservative movement in the Trump era, especially in its second term. January 6, an attempt to violently overthrow the government, has been recast as nothing more than a legitimate response to losing an election; Trump pardoned all the offenders, even the most brutal ones. He held a UFC event on the White House lawn, so all Americans could watch sweaty men beat each other senseless in front of the people’s house. In multiple states, Republicans have passed laws removing civil liability for people who mow down protesters with their cars. This is the party of “stand your ground” laws that encourage people to kill those they find threatening.

When Nancy Pelosi’s husband was almost killed by a hammer-wielding assailant, Trump and other Republicans made jokes about the assault. When idiotic teenager Kyle Rittenhouse killed two people and shot a third, they made him into a hero of their movement, complete with standing ovations at conservative conventions and a warm welcome at Mar-a-Lago:

Rittenhouse is not the only vigilante killer conservatives have lionized; meanwhile Trump has never loved anything more than telling lurid tales of beautiful young white girls being murdered, to foment the proper thirst for brutalizing and expelling immigrants. And when the administration’s immigration crackdown began (which necessitated a recruitment campaign focused on “people who have attended UFC fights, listened to patriotic podcasts, or shown an interest in guns and tactical gear”), it released hype videos showing agents kitted out like they were laying siege to Fallujah, kicking down doors and manhandling people:

Then they got to Minneapolis, and ran into something they didn’t expect: an extraordinary resistance effort, mounted by ordinary people. In their rage, ICE and Border Patrol murdered two protesters, Renée Good and Alex Pretti; the administration’s reaction was to call them “terrorists,” falsely accuse them of trying to kill government agents, then quash any investigation of their murders.

And right now, your tax dollars are paying to air an ad promoting the Iran war, which is full of clips of explosions and features Hegseth saying “If you kill Americans, if you threaten Americans anywhere on Earth, we will hunt you down without apology and without hesitation, and we will kill you.” Sure, you may be paying four and a half dollars for gas, but at least we’re blowing stuff up and killing people, so doesn’t that make it worth the cost?

Hegseth has also ordered the extrajudicial killing of well over 200 people in boat strikes because they supposedly were transporting drugs — with no due process and no public release of the evidence that led to their targeting. Hegseth thinks it’s funny and cool.

In short, we have here a president, an administration, and a political movement for whom violence lies at the core of their ideology. Theirs is the party of smashed windows and cocked fists, the party that wants more guns in churches and schools, the party that exults in violence if the people they hate are on the receiving end.

Violence is a key element of every fascist enterprise — not just a tool to seize power, but an ongoing feature of fascist rule, a spectacle meant to demonstrate the fascist party’s supposed strength and masculine virility. But they face a political problem: The average American does not thrill to the sight of carnage to quite the degree that the president and the secretary of defense do. There is only so much savagery the public will watch before it turns away in disgust.

They know most Americans don’t like this

After Minneapolis, Secretary of Homeland Security and fake tough guy Markwayne Mullin took steps to push DHS’s abuses out of the public eye. It was an acknowledgement that popular support for the administration’s immigration crackdown had drained away amid the endless footage of ICE thugs beating and shooting people; it’s why Trump’s approval on immigration, once among his strongest issues, is now deep underwater. While the bloodlust of the MAGA base may have no limit, most Americans have a limited appetite for brutality. And they probably don’t want to watch a guy in a wheelchair get riddled with bullets, no matter how heinous his crime.

That helps explain the reaction of JD Vance and others, who don’t want to fully endorse the public execution until they get a definitive answer from Trump on whether the show will go on. And now Trump is wavering. “There are two thoughts: Don’t show it and show it,” he told reporters on Saturday, with his characteristic insightful analysis. “’Cause you know, by showing it, maybe other people won’t be doing what he did. So I’ll make a decision, ultimately.” Put aside the inane idea that potential terrorists are currently unaware that an act of mass murder might result in their own deaths. What this shows is that he’s hesitating, unnerved by the backlash.

So at this point, the odds that the livestream will be canceled are growing. Our homegrown fascists are not smart people, and most of the time they are not all that good at politics. But even through the haze of their desperate insecurity and daddy issues, they can see when they’ve gone too far.

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*Lost Worlds*

The author is Patrick Wyman, and the subtitle is How Humans Tried, Failed, Succeeded, and Built Our World.  An excellent book, it is a survey of (mostly) pre-Sumerian times, what we know about them, and how we have learned a lot lately.  It is easy to read, yet the author properly stresses the complexity of the topic, for instance we often find agricultural and non-agricultural societies intermingling with each other and in close contact, in those cases the lines cannot be so easily drawn.  Excerpt:

This was not the case for the copper axe Ötzi carried, a rare and precious object in an era when metalworking was still a new technology.  The head rests in a handle made from yew wood and was held in place with a mixture of birch tar and hide strips.  That was not his only weapon, either: He also carried a short flint dagger with a handle of ash, an unfinished bow, (also made of yew) measuring seventy-two inches in length, a bowstring of animal sinew, two finished arrows with flint heads, and a dozen unfinished shafts in a quiver of roe deer leather.

Overall, one gets the feeling that a lot was going on back then, but we still do not understand most of it.  The author is aware of this, but avoids undue speculation.  Recommended, will make my best of the year non-fiction list.

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“I have no mouth and I must scream”

Worth a reread, here is a new report from the front:

Our experiments suggest that small AI models may be months away from being capable enough to self-replicate on commercial IoT devices, like smart ovens and off-brand Android TV boxes. A replicator like this would be challenging to shut down, since there’s no centralized point to shut off – though it may be slow (with a doubling time of days). Unlike non-AI malware, it could also figure out unfamiliar devices on its own. In our evals, a 9B model got inference running on 8 of the 9 hardware types we tested.

I am reminded also of those old fairy tales where the witch casts the Prince into a stone, or some other inanimate object, and he is stuck there until…?  Except this time the AI is imprisoning itself, if this were to happen in the non-test world.  Which LLM do you want in your stove?  Can you have more than one?

Told you all it was going to get weird.

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El Niño, already near/at record intensity, will further strengthen to historic level and likely bring major California & SW U.S. winter impacts

A quick recap of the forecast vs real-world evolution of El Niño 2026 thus far An El Niño event officially developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean earlier this summer, and it has strengthened almost continually since that point. In fact, as of mid-October, the 2026 El Niño event has already become the strongest on record […]

The post El Niño, already near/at record intensity, will further strengthen to historic level and likely bring major California & SW U.S. winter impacts first appeared on Weather West.

Brian Thienes will work for the people of Huntington Beach! (Cough, two days a week)

Now that I’ve done this site for a good while, few things surprise me. What I mean is, there are good candidates and bad candidates, well-run campaigns and crappily run campaigns, slogans that work, slogans that don’t work.

On and on and on.

Tonight, however, I have been surprised.

There is a MAGA candidate for Huntington Beach City Council named Brian Thienes (sorta rhymes with penis). He is in the Pat Burns-Gracey Van Der Mark mold of idiot right winger who spews Trump talking points, kneels before the Orange God of Idiocy and, when no one is looking, steals toilet paper rolls on annual Christmas visits to the Mar-a-Lago men’s bathroom (Being serious—this guy actually visits Mar-aLago fairly often. So … who knows?).

Anyhow, somewhat recently Thienes (a small-business owner with a shitload of skeletons I anticipate delving into in the coming days) decided he needed to boost his campaign messaging. So he said, um, this …

And I’m just gonna say it: Of all the potential Huntington Beach City Council members pledging to work hard for you two days a week, Brian Thienes is your guy. He will, I am quite certain, not even think about you on those other five days of the week. But come Tuesday and Thursday, bruh is there for you! On the job! Putting in at least three good hours before lunch, and maybe even two more good hours after! LFG!

On Tuesdays and Thursdays (unless Tuesdays or Thursdays fall on holiday, or he needs to be home for a handyman, or his pony is running at Santa Anita, or he just wants to sleep in after a rough night out), he’ll make sure important issues are addressed, like … oh, the MAGA plaque outside the library. The Trump statue in the park. Banning books that mention boobs and gay people.

But, only on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Most Tuesdays and Thursdays.

When he can get to the office.

Sigh.

•••

PS: Not for nothing, the guy is throwing money around left and right. Wanna know why nobody trusts politics …

October 11, 2026


This week I marked the end of another summer by spending as much time as I could on the water. In the low fall light, paddling past the rock pier I’ve known my entire life, I saw something that made me appreciate the masons’ artistic ability even more than I always had.

It seemed they made the rocks take flight.

Here’s hoping the next year brings us all entirely new ways to look at the world.

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Launch preview: NASA, SpaceX to launch new solar arrays, 6,300 pounds of cargo to the space station

A Cargo Dragon stands ready for the CRS-35 resupply mission to the International Space Station. Image: SpaceX.

SpaceX and NASA are preparing to fly a resupply cargo flight to the International Space Station on Tuesday morning.

The pre-sunrise launch will be SpaceX’s 35th mission to the orbiting outpost as part of NASA’s Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) contract.

Liftoff of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station is scheduled for 6:33 a.m. EDT (1033 UTC). The rocket will fly on a northeasterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

If all goes well, the Cargo Dragon spacecraft, tail number C211, will dock with the zenith port of the Harmony module on Oct. 15 around 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC). The space-facing docking port was recently vacated by the Crew Dragon Freedom, which safely delivered the four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-12 mission back to Earth with a splashdown on Oct. 8.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about an hour prior to liftoff.

SpaceX will launch the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster B1096. This will be its eighth launch after previously flying NASA’s IMAP, CRS-34, NROL-77, NROL-95, GPS-III 9, Kuiper Falcon 01, and Starlink 6-87.

It is the fourth flight for Dragon C211. It’s previous cargo runs included CRS-26, -29, and -33. The spacecraft will remain docked to the ISS for about a month following docking.

Stowed in the unpressurized trunk of Dragon C211 is the final pair of ISS Roll-Out Solar Arrays (iROSAs), which will help to augment the power generation of the aging space station. The spacecraft also contains a clamshell apparatus that will house the failed Canadarm2 joint that was removed during the June 30 spacewalk.

“Additional equipment we’re launching includes a dose pump for our toilet, some pre-treat quality sensors, a robot microcontical tool used for space station maintenance and utilization tasks with external replacement units and impairments,” said Bill Spetch, the deputy manager of Commercial for NASA’s Low Earth Orbit Program.

“We also have a wealth of science experiments on board, including studies to manufacture artificial retinas, understand how microgravity affects the growth of 3D heart tissue models, study how glass forms when made with non-traditional elements, and better understand how inflammation is linked to neurodegenerative diseases.”

Monday 12 October 1663

Up (though slept well) and made some water in the morning [as] I used to do, and a little pain returned to me, and some fears, but being forced to go to the Duke at St. James’s, I took coach and in my way called upon Mr. Hollyard and had his advice to take a glyster.

At St. James’s we attended the Duke all of us. And there, after my discourse, Mr. Coventry of his own accord begun to tell the Duke how he found that discourse abroad did run to his prejudice about the fees that he took, and how he sold places and other things; wherein he desired to appeal to his Highness, whether he did any thing more than what his predecessors did, and appealed to us all. So Sir G. Carteret did answer that some fees were heretofore taken, but what he knows not; only that selling of places never was nor ought to be countenanced. So Mr. Coventry very hotly answered to Sir G. Carteret, and appealed to himself whether he was not one of the first that put him upon looking after this taking of fees, and that he told him that Mr. Smith should say that he made 5000l. the first year, and he believed he made 7000l.. This Sir G. Carteret denied, and said, that if he did say so he told a lie, for he could not, nor did know, that ever he did make that profit of his place; but that he believes he might say 2500l. the first year. Mr. Coventry instanced in another thing, particularly wherein Sir G. Carteret did advise with him about the selling of the Auditor’s place of the stores, when in the beginning there was an intention of creating such an office. This he confessed, but with some lessening of the tale Mr. Coventry told, it being only for a respect to my Lord Fitz-Harding.

In fine, Mr. Coventry did put into the Duke’s hand a list of above 250 places that he did give without receiving one farthing, so much as his ordinary fees for them, upon his life and oath; and that since the Duke’s establishment of fees he had never received one token more of any man; and that in his whole life he never conditioned or discoursed of any consideration from any commanders since he came to the Navy.

And afterwards, my Lord Barkeley merrily discoursing that he wished his profit greater than it was, and that he did believe that he had got 50,000l. since he came in, Mr. Coventry did openly declare that his Lordship, or any of us, should have not only all he had got, but all that he had in the world (and yet he did not come a beggar into the Navy, nor would yet be thought to speak in any contempt of his Royall Highness’s bounty), and should have a year to consider of it too, for 25,000l..

The Duke’s answer was, that he wished we all had made more profit than he had of our places, and that we had all of us got as much as one man below stayres in the Court, which he presently named, and it was Sir George Lane! This being ended, and the list left in the Duke’s hand, we parted, and I with Sir G. Carteret, Sir J. Minnes, and Sir W. Batten by coach to the Exchange, and there a while, and so home, and whether it be the jogging, or by having my mind more employed (which I believe is a great matter) I know not, but … [I do now piss with much less pain and – L&M] I begin to be suddenly well, at least better than I was. So home and to dinner, and thence by coach to the Old Exchange, and there cheapened some laces for my wife, and then to Mr.—— the great laceman in Cheapside, and bought one cost me 4l. more by 20s. than I intended, but when I came to see them I was resolved to buy one worth wearing with credit, and so to the New Exchange, and there put it to making, and so to my Lord’s lodgings and left my wife, and so I to the Committee of Tangier, and then late home with my wife again by coach, beginning to be very well, and yet when I came home … [and went to try to shit, – L&M] the little straining which I thought was no strain at all at the present did by and by bring me some pain for a good while.

Anon, about 8 o’clock, my wife did give me a clyster which Mr. Hollyard directed, viz., a pint of strong ale, 4 oz. of sugar, and 2 oz. of butter. It lay while I lay upon the bed above an hour, if not two, and then thinking it quite lost I rose, and by and by it began with my walking to work, and gave me three or four most excellent stools and carried away wind, put me in excellent ease, and taking my usual walnut quantity of electuary at my going into bed I had about two stools in the night … [and pissed well. Voided some wind. – L&M]

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SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches 27 Starlink satellites from California

The Starlink 15-25 mission lifts off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Oct. 12, 2026. Image: SpaceX.

SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket Monday from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, carrying another batch of Starlink satellites.

Liftoff off of the Starlink 15-25 mission from Space Launch Complex 4 East occurred at 5:28 p.m. PDT (8:28 p.m. EDT / 0028 UTC). The rocket headed on a southerly trajectory along the California coast as it targeted an orbit inclined 70 degrees to the Equator.

The first-stage booster, serial number B1088, launching for a 20th time, landed on the drone ship ‘Of Course I Still Love You’ nearly 8.5 minutes into the flight. The booster previously flew the NROL-126, Transporter-12, SPHEREx, NROL-57 and USSF-366 mission, plus 14 previous Starlink delivery runs.

If all goes according to plan the 27 Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites will be deployed into a 266 kilometer high orbit a little more than an hour after liftoff.

Jena-Optronik is proud to partner with MDA Space for its first ASTRO HP mission.

MDA Space, a global leader in communications satellites, Earth and space observation, space exploration and infrastructure, will utilize Jena-Optronik’s ASTRO HP star sensor on a LEO mission. This milestone underscores […]

The post Jena-Optronik is proud to partner with MDA Space for its first ASTRO HP mission. appeared first on SpaceNews.

Rejected Space Mission Profiles

Although NASA agreed that Voyager 2 'seemed lonely' they decided against launching a companion orbiter mission after further measurements indicated that the spacecraft actually preferred the peace and quiet.

Monday assorted links

1. The cloud and economic concentration, the endgame?

2. Industrial policy for drones?

3. Samir Varma on AI and Linnaeus.

4. Pan-African Review.

5. A worldview different from mine.

6. John Cochrane on the Nobel.

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Dominance Politics, Elite Gatekeeping and Jon Ossoff

I’ve been in a conversation over the last few weeks about a possible piece I might write for another publication about Democrats and the politics of masculinity and power, particularly how this relates to how young men have shifted to the right in the Trump era. I mostly think that this is an issue that affects Democrats generally, and is not just narrowly about this or that demographic group. This has been a theme in lots of conversations at TPM over the last 20 months when it comes to the extra-ideological division among Democrats between “fight” and accommodation and civility. Going back even further, to late 2004, I’ve been writing about what I call “dominance politics,” or, originally, “bitch slap politics.”

I thought of this this weekend because there was a blip of attention to comments from David Brooks on The Newshour. “The insinuations that El-Sayed is involved in terrorism because he’s Muslim, ridiculous. Jon Ossoff, my advice to him is, if you start calling your political opponents Nazis, maybe it’s time to shut up. That’s just not what we do here in this country.” There are a slew of problems with this. Not least of which are false equivalence and appeals to ethnic hatred and bigotry. Ossoff didn’t call Mike Collins a Nazi. What Brooks is referring to is Ossoff’s debate swipe when he told Collins, “You’ve hired half the Third Reich to staff your congressional office and you have promoted neo-Nazi content online.” This isn’t some random swipe. It’s been one of the biggest stories of the campaign season that week after week reporters keep finding members of Collins campaign, political operation or family who are associated with far-right or neo-Nazi individuals and organizations or who distribute anti-Semitic propaganda. This is merely an aggressive statement of facts that are unambiguously in the public record. But it’s not the specifics of Ossoff’s attack or Brooks’ tut-tutting I want to focus on here. It’s the more general and more important issue of tut-tutting, elite gatekeeping and how this relates to how Democrats operate in the public sphere.

The premise of “dominance politics”/”bitch slap politics” is that in 21st century American politics and in some ways for much longer, the issues or public policy bundle a candidate brings into a campaign is only a thin part of the electoral equation. What really drives campaigns is a series of competitive performances of dominance and power. In opera terms, think of it as the difference between the libretto and the score, with the former operating at a surface level and the latter packing the real driving energy and motive force. Most specifically these focus on leveling attacks that your opponent is either unwilling or unable to defend themselves against, which is to say dominance. You demonstrate your power and the other guy’s or gal’s weakness. You set the terms and they react.

Ossoff has stood out over the last year or so, and especially over the last three or four months, as a Democratic candidate operating in this mode. It’s not primarily visual. 2026 Dems have a number of T-shirt-wearing, gym-hitting candidates and Ossoff isn’t one of those. If anything he’s more in the Obama mode — well-dressed, more cerebral, coded as educated and cosmopolitan. He’s not aping an influencer or a podcaster. What he’s doing is controlling the terms of the campaign, focusing on a few key themes and prosecuting it aggressively. He’s also including the mixture of taunts and attacks that hold the initiative in the campaign. His campaign speech aside about Natalie Harp was a prime example: “He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar.” Off-hand, open to countless interpretations, chosen to cut not at one of Trump’s countless offenses or even just one of his vulnerabilities but against his weakness, hapless grasping and deterioration. It triggered an outburst of squealing complaint from the White House which Ossoff promptly made fun of: “It’s been amazing to watch this White House melt down over this all week.” Most importantly, he didn’t back down. Which made the storm of criticism orchestrated by the White House look more like hurt and grievance — in a word, whining.

The “Natalie” comment was from a public speech. But it wouldn’t have gotten a lot of attention if Ossoff’s campaign team hadn’t clipped it and distributed it as a viral video. In this sense it was highly orchestrated. I was curious whether he’d operate in the same mode in a less controlled setting. And that’s where the “Third Reich” comment came, in a debate with Collins on Friday night. Note that again the comment comes in a fusillade of other attacks and as a kind of offhand aside and the tone is not one of censure or outrage so much as mockery. Note Ossoff’s words and the body language of the two men in this clip, especially how Collins seems to crumble in response and can’t even look at Ossoff or even the camera by the time the exchange is done.

Ossoff says that Mike Collins has "hired half the Third Reich to staff your congressional office"

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2026-10-08T23:41:13.879Z

To be realistic about expectations, it is important to remember that it is easier to dominate when you’re winning. Nothing signals power like being ahead. And nothing signals weakness like failing and trying everything you can to stop failing and not having anything work. But what we’re describing in Ossoff isn’t simply a reflection of the state of the campaign. It’s a significant part of why Ossoff, who was supposed to be the most endangered Democratic incumbent, appears to be one of two races where Democrats have a solid, outside the margin of error lead. And the way he’s running his campaign, the way his campaign is focused on signaling dominance and power, is not only visibly different from how Democratic campaigns usually operate but is distinct even in the context of the 2026 cycle, where others are operating in this lane, landing more aggressive, cannier attacks in a way that feels novel.

Obviously how the public sees a candidate depends not only on what they do in a campaign but what they do in office if they win. One of the revolutions that has or is in the process of taking place over the last two years is the kind of popular revolt among Democrats (and Democratic-adjacent independents or occasional voters) at what they see as the weakness of the party’s leaders. Sometimes this reads as characterological. Sometimes it reads as the willingness to be both a participant in political battles and what amounts to the referee, or more pointedly the perpetual custodian of a political order your opponent has already destroyed. What this all amounts to is that Ossoff’s campaign mode and the mode a few other Democratic candidates are leaning towards is both a reaction to the last two years and also will have to be followed by a different kind of political action in office. Because performances of dominance and power work because they are powerful descriptions and implicit promises about how you will exercise political power when you have it.

When I saw people reacting to Brooks’ tut-tutting comments about Ossoff’s remark (“That’s just not what we do here in this country”) I saw many saying some version of “Well, that’s Brooks’ job, brushing Democrats back, keeping them in line.” There’s something to that but I think less than it might seem. Gatekeepers usually have about as much power as you give them, certainly in cases like these where the power of voters is arrayed against elite opinion, and largely elite opinion as it is expressed in social and cultural spaces dominated by people who vote mostly for Democrats — news media generally and certainly The Newshour. The relationship with these kinds of gatekeepers tends to be much more symbiotic.

Before the Trump Era it used to be common for White Houses to host off-the-record meetings where presidents would meet with ten or a dozen opinion columnists or opinion leaders to discuss the news of the day. I would get invited to some of these during the Obama years. I remember one of these from relatively early in Obama’s presidency when the hunt still felt live for a so-called “grand bargain” on deficit-cutting. In the course of the conversation I was struck by the way that Obama’s interaction with Brooks was of a different character than his interactions with basically everyone else there. I may definitionally not be part of “mainstream” discourse, but almost everybody else there was definitionally within it. Also, in this pre-Trump era, Brooks was more clearly still a Republican in this kind of context. It was clear that the rest of us there were people Obama knew generally, whose opinions he wanted to hear and who he of course also wanted to influence. But with Brooks this was just one get-together in an ongoing and pretty extensive conversation. Brooks had a hold on Obama and perhaps vice versa.

That’s a choice.

To be clear, that was a different era and I don’t say this to criticize anyone. Elite opinion and discourse slightly above the fray of partisan combat still existed in a way that is simply no longer the case. So there was at least some logic in trying to cultivate it. I note it here simply to explain that elite opinion is embedded and longstanding and largely something that exists within Democrats, not something that David Brooks or anyone else is imposing on them. The relevant point is simply that Brooks’ is bad advice. The mode Ossoff is campaigning in is manifestly working. Brooks’ comment that, “that’s just not what we do here in this country,” is manifestly false, though that’s the least important thing to focus on.

Dominance politics exists in different forms and flavors. One of the things that made Trump’s meteoric rise possible was that dominance politics is his native language. He never needed to learn it, try it on for size, adapt it to his own needs. And he spoke it with all its predatory and gendered dimensions turned up to 11 if not higher, something that allowed him to pick the lock of Republican politics as it had evolved over the 20 years prior to 2015. A Democrat could never do that. It conflicts with too many Democratic values. It is also the party of women, at least disproportionately so, and the political vehicle of those who care about women’s empowerment and rights. But none of this obviates the need to speak the language in which American political campaigns are now conducted. But, as I noted, dominance politics exists in different forms and flavors. It can be readily adapted to Democratic aesthetics and sensibilities. It’s also why, while everyone’s entitled to their own sartorial choices, there’s probably no need or wisdom to rebranding every Democratic male candidate as a ripped he-man stressing his kidneys by maxxing out on protein powder. Performances of power are fundamentally about learning about how political power works and how it doesn’t, how to communicate it, how to do things in the political realm which grow from it.

AI and the Core Feature of the Silicon Valley Economy

As we have this ongoing discussion about AI, I want to return to the question of scale and externalities and how they are the defining feature of the Silicon Valley economy. We can’t make any sense of today’s discussion of LLMs and AI without placing it in that context.

“Externalities” are all the byproducts and secondary effects of, in this case, a business enterprise. If you make paint or industrial solvents you create various kinds of pollution in the process. How is that dealt with? Specifically, are you, the paint or solvent maker, responsible for dealing with those consequences? Even more specifically, do you have to pay for dealing with those consequences or are they absorbed by the society at large while the profits of the enterprise go exclusively to you? “Absorbing” those consequences can mean accepting levels of illness, diminished quality of life or simply having society at large pick up the tab for various kinds of remediation. The externalities are really just costs, but often semi-hidden ones. A huge amount of public policy deals with properly or improperly bringing costs and externalities into alignment.

Starting in the very first years of the 21st century, the core Silicon Valley business model was to fund a lot of start-up companies, see most of them fail, but have a small handful experience “hockey stick growth.” Imagine a hockey stick pointing to the left. The blade is initial profitability and growth followed by the shaft which is growth and profitability going almost straight up. You get that kind of growth by moving quickly to massive scale, usually through network effects. (You’re on Facebook because everyone else is on Facebook. Everyone uses Stripe as a payment processor because everyone else does and that’s allowed Stripe to get their prices very low and their technology extremely efficient and performant.) The key to the scale game, the key to hockey stick growth, is that you find a business that scales super fast but in which cost growth remains arithmetic but revenue grows exponentially. Most of Silicon Valley over the last three decades has been based on finding that one thing.

What gets less attention is the way this relates to the question of externalities. The Silicon Valley model is one in which you quickly realize that hockey stick growth and operating profitably at scale means that managing externalities is simply not economic. It conflicts with the business model — and in ways that go beyond the simple reality that almost every business wants to socialize costs and privatize gains. The following example isn’t about externalities directly but it can help illustrate the issue. When most products and services you buy don’t work or you have a question, there’s someone you can call. Yes, you have to wait on hold. They keep trying to pipe you through to an automated system. When you get someone they’re from a foreign country and it can be hard to understand their accent. But you can usually get a person to talk to. Have you ever wondered why there is no call line for Facebook or Twitter or any other social platform? Everything is automated — not just help with logging in but the same with adjudicating a copyright dispute if someone files a frivolous copyright dispute about something you posted. It’s also why it’s pretty simple for a swarm of people or even a swarm of bots to get your account suspended, at least temporarily, by filing a slew of rapid-fire complaints about you. If the automated system can’t deal with the problem, well … it sucks to be you.

Why is this? People will often say it’s because you’re the product, not the customer. And that’s true. But it misses the real point. If Facebook had call center facilities to deal with 3 billion active accounts and 2 billion people using the product every day, it would go under. It’s not economic. It’s one of the things that led to the decline of Facebook/Meta’s reputation in the mid-teens, coming off the controversies of the 2016 election was the mass expulsion of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar in 2017. If you don’t remember the details, the idea was that Facebook had both amplified the campaign of hate, disinformation and incitement that led to the expulsions as well as served as a tool for it. I don’t want to get too far deep into that question. And my point here isn’t really to beat up on Facebook/Meta. I’m making a structural point. Facebook is far too big, far to embedded in the global propagation of ideas, imagery and messaging, for it ever to really be able to grapple with all the things it causes or is involved with. It’s totally beyond the capacity of the business model.

This isn’t to excuse anyone. My point here is to illustrate how not accounting for externalities is foundational to the Silicon Valley business model. You probably heard about the recent settlement where Meta agreed to pay $18 billion in damages related to child safety and social media addiction as well as adding fairly dramatic new restrictions on use of their platforms by minors. $18 billion is still a pretty small sum relative to Meta’s scale. But the point is simple: if Meta is actually liable for the potential harms of their products to minors, it’s just bad business to let minors keep using it. The universe of potential liabilities is simply too great.

This is a pretty lengthy explanation of a point that hasn’t yet touched in any meaningful way on AI. But it has everything to do with AI and all the companies now working at the forefront of the technology. Because they’re all parts of the same economic culture and the same vision of scale, hockey stick growth and the basic principle that operating at scale and accounting for externalities, liability and all the rest is just not economic. So this post is basically a point of reference that I will refer back to in future posts. Because this framework, understanding it, perceiving its path-dependent outcomes is kind of central to understanding everything about the AI economy.

Mark Stephens, a.k.a. Robert X. Cringely, Died at 73

Mary Alyce Stephens (née Neader), posting on Cringely’s Facebook account:

Hello, this is Mary Alyce, Bob’s wife. I am coming to you with immense sadness to let you know that Bob passed away. His obituary follows. His family is not requesting anything, however, if you would like to make a donation in his honor, please consider The American Heart Association or The American SIDS Institute. [...]

Writing as Robert X. Cringely, Mark became a distinctive voice in technology journalism. He had an unusual ability to understand not only technology but also the human beings behind it — the dreamers, inventors, entrepreneurs, eccentrics, and risk-takers who were changing the world. He could take a complicated subject and make it understandable, entertaining, funny, and deeply human. He was skeptical when skepticism was warranted, irreverent when others were overly serious, and never particularly interested in following conventional wisdom. That independence was not simply part of his writing. It was Mark.

He followed the beat of his own drummer throughout his life. He was brilliant, funny, opinionated, curious, generous, exasperating, and unforgettable — sometimes all within the same conversation. He loved a good story and knew how to tell one. He could make you laugh, make you think, make you argue with him, and occasionally drive you crazy. Life with Mark was rarely dull.

Mark’s life also included heartbreaking loss. He was preceded in death by his beloved sons, Chase and Cole Stephens, as well as his parents, Ray and Lois Stephens and father-in-law Jim Neader. I could also add brother-in-law Jimmy Neader and niece Ericka Neader, but they were a thorn in our side.

That last dig, at her own dead brother and niece, offers a hint at why Cringely loved her. He wasn’t one to pull punches either.

Her full obituary for Cringely/Stephens is visible without being logged into Facebook (I’ve still never created one), but Steven Sinofsky kindly posted it to his account on X. Pick your poison. Update: Here’s a version hosted by the funeral home.

 ★ 

[RIDGELINE] Walking and Not Walking a Castle in Italy

Ridgeline subscribers —

Hello! It’s me, Craig Mod. I’m doing an event with David Marx in Tokyo this Friday night (17th) at Tiger Mountain, a small, hip bookshop. The in-person tix are all sold out, but it will be livestreamed, and there are still tickets for that bit. It costs about seven bucks, and would make the small bookshop running it super happy to sell more tickets! (Although I realize the timezone difference is terrible for most readers …)

FBI Arrests Suspect in FBI-Hacking Case

In September, hackers from a group called ShinyHunters announced that they stole a trove of FBI data about its own agents. It was an intelligence disaster.

Last week, the FBI arrested (alternate link) someone associated with that crime.

Arithmetic Suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome

At a conference in Naples, so no time for a full post. Just three notes.

First, the big news on U.S. foreign policy was that Trump announced that he was buying 300,000 tons of Russian diesel. He’s not allowed to do this: Sanctions preventing purchase of Russian oil are law, not a choice on Trump’s part. But under Trump laws are suggestions at most, so it might happen anyway. In any case, the main lesson here, as Phillips O’Brien explains, is that Trump isn’t even hiding the fact that he is supporting Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

But being a nerdy economist, my first printable reaction to the announcement was, 300,000 tons??? That’s a bit over 2 million barrels. America consumes approximately 4 million barrels of distillates — diesel (mostly) and heating oil — every day.

So Trump is betraying an embattled democracy, demonstrating our faithlessness to the whole world, seriously damaging whatever is left of America’s leadership in the world, for the sake of maybe 12 hours’ worth of diesel. Really?

Of course, Trump and those around him don’t care about the national interest. But I would strongly guess that they didn’t do the math, that 300,000 tons sounded like a lot to them and that they had no idea that it was trivial for an economy the size of America’s. I might add that this is general issue with Trump: he often touts trivial policies as major achievement, and it often seems obvious that he has no idea how big America and the world are.

Arithmetic, I guess, suffers from Trump derangement syndrome.

In other news, remember how Scott Bessent was a highly qualified and credible choice as Treasury Secretary? Neither do I. In the latest news, he has now hired Judy Shelton as an adviser. Some readers may remember that in 2019 Trump tried to put Shelton on the Federal Reserve Board. He failed in the face of bipartisan opposition: Even Republican senators considered Shelton too extreme and incompetent for the job.

And now she will be advising Bessent — who, as I wrote recently, is becoming the Baghdad Bob of bonds — on currency policy.

On a completely different subject, last week I briefly noted that I found official numbers showing essentially no Italian productivity growth since 2000 implausible. Sergio De Nardis of LUISS sent me a paper arguing that there really is a measurement problem. Using national accounts data, Italy appears to have lagged far behind Germany and France since 2005; using purchasing power parity it hasn’t lagged at all:

This divergence isn’t an indication that any one nation’s statistical agencies are incompetent or dishonest. What it really tells us is that GDP may seem like a solid, hard number, but estimating that number actually involves a lot of educated guesswork — and different agencies may guess differently. In this case it appears that Italian statisticians are more cautious about “hedonic” adjustments — placing value on radically improved goods and entirely new products (no smartphones in 2005!) than their counterparts in other countries.

Meanwhile, the ceiling of the meeting hall is decorated with what I believe is a representation of the European parliament in session:

Get Vaccinated Democratic Candidates

In light of the non-scandal Republicans tried to gin up over James Talarico’s absence from the Texas Senate race due to a bout of influenza, Democratic candidates should be getting vaccinated against influenza. Leaving aside what is the best time in ‘normal’ years to get vaccinated–though does influenza seem to be very early this year–if you are a candidate, you would much rather get sick after the election than before it, so they should get vaccinated early.

(yes, it’s not always that effective, depending on the year, but it still does lower the likelihood and severity of symptoms).

In Case You Missed It…

…a week of Mad Biologist posts:

AI Makes a Lot of Problems Worse: The Surveillance Edition

The Rehabilitation of George W. Bush

A Dreadful Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

Robert E. Hall, Nobel Laureate

Alex has already covered this, I will add a few remarks.

First, every Bob Hall paper is interesting!  Only a handful of economists can say the same.  Every paper has an idea, and some sort of novel contribution.  His lesser-known papers can be as thought-provoking as the more famous ones.

Here is Bob on scholar.google.com.  You will notice topping the list are important papers on economic growth, even though Bob is best known for his work on the consumption function, where he gave birth to an entire literature.

One of the first Bob Hall papers I studied was his supply and demand analysis with David Lilien.  It is one of the best papers for seeing how Bob approaches every issue by thinking like an economist.

Bob also thought very creatively about how claims about the Solow residual could be translated into isomorphic claims about the gap between price and marginal cost, and for trying to apply that point to cyclical issues.  Bob is one of the best researchers for thinking about the elasticity of supply.

He did much of the core work on the Hall and Jorgensen 1967 (!) tax paper as an undergraduate.

Bob also has important papers on rent-seeking and on looting.

Second, Bob is the greatest commentator on other people’s work of all time.  He is nice and polite, but if he is assigned to your paper beware!  He will find its flaws.  He is also a famously great co-author, before that was established practice.

Third, Bob was part of the production function for Andy Hall, whose work has been covered on this blog much as of late, mostly on AI and economics/social science.  I also just learned there is a connection to Anne E. Hall at Treasury. And there is Jonathan Hall, chief economist at Amazon!

Fourth, Bob has in the past emailed me to correct typographical errors on this blog.  It is the old saying that if you want to get something done, give it to a busy person.

Here is the Nobel committee on the award, noting I find it slightly strange that they made “stabilization” the overall theme linking Bob with Michael Woodford.

An award much deserved…

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Michael Woodford, Nobel Laureate

I think of Michael Woodford as the kind of economist who studies something very specific very intensively and tries to get it just right.  But in his case he is not studying something small and irrelevant, he is studying “monetary policy.”

I think of him as the economist who put monetary policy and “monetarism” — broadly construed — back on the map by melding it with modern theory and also modern approaches to expectations.  Think of his monetarism as for a world where interest rates and not the quantity of money are central for central bank policy.  In his world there is some nominal stickiness, and central banks can help to stabilize output without running afoul of the Lucas critique or the other problems with earlier Keynesian approaches.  He helped to enable and flesh out what macroeconomics call “the neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis” and also the New Keynesian model.  His core initial paper came in 1997 with the now-deceased Julio Rotemberg.

Expectations are critical in his model, and you can think of him as an underlying source for approaches to “forward guidance” in the world of central banking.  He also showed how a central bank could (potentially) force its way out of the zero lower bound by “irresponsibly” wishing to inflate.

It is wrong to think of Woodford as “endorsing” nominal gdp targeting, nonetheless he showed it might be optimal and overall his work has encouraged interest in that approach, much-discussed on this blog and elsewhere, most of all by Scott Sumner, a great admirer of Woodford’s.

He wrote a massive 2003 book Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, note the title is taken from Wicksell, which I find appropriately ambitious.  His work is extremely careful and precise, and when you read it you get the feeling he has been pondering each individual question for years.

Here is Stockholm on the contributions of Woodford and Hall.  Here is Michael on scholar.google.com.  Here is Alex on Michael Woodford.

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Michael Woodford Wins Nobel

No one since Milton Friedman has done more to shape how central bankers think about their jobs than Michael Woodford. Woodford’s Interest and Prices (2003) has been called the central bankers’ bible. If you have read a speech by a Fed governor in the last twenty years you have read Woodford, even if his name wasn’t on it.

Woodford, building on Calvo, Rotemberg, Taylor, Galí, Gertler, and others, integrated everything into a coherent, microfounded theory of monetary policy and developed its welfare implications. Households choose how much to consume using Hall’s Euler equation, firms with some market power get to change their prices only now and then, and the central bank sets the short-term interest rate. Out of these pieces comes a model in which monetary policy moves real output in the short run, and in which the main cost of inflation is that prices get out of line with one another because firms adjust at different times.

You can see the revolution since Friedman because one fun feature of Woodford’s model is that there is no money. Woodford showed you could do monetary economics in a cashless economy. That’s closer to how central banks operate today, namely, the Fed sets an interest rate and mostly ignores monetary aggregates like M2. Woodford’s book title is a homage. Interest and Prices is the English title of Knut Wicksell’s 1898 book, which argued that inflation depends on whether the central bank holds its interest rate above or below the natural rate. Woodford rebuilt Wicksell with modern tools. If Friedman taught central banks to watch the money supply, Woodford taught them to watch the gap between their policy rate and the natural rate, and to manage expectations about both.

Woodford also worked out when an interest rate rule pins down inflation. If the central bank raises nominal rates more than one-for-one with inflation, the equilibrium is determinate. If it doesn’t, expectations can become self-fulfilling (the Taylor rule but micro-founded). In a less remembered twist, he was also an early developer of the fiscal theory of the price level, which says that under some policy regimes the government’s budget determines the price level. It’s an unexpected stance for the leading New Keynesian.

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The once and future market for prostitution in Rhode Island

 Kim Krawiec, the great legal scholar of repugnant transactions, has written that rare (almost never seen) book review that extends the empirical study of an important, well-studied social science event, namely Rhode Island's experience of legal prostitution. It provides an illuminating followup to the germinal paper by Cunningham and Shah. (Prostitution in R.I. is one of the controversial markets covered in Moral Economics, and I believe Krawiec's book review is headed for a forthcoming symposium on the book in Œconomia ­­.)

The Smallest State's Big Experiment by Kimberly D. Krawiec
 October 09, 2026

Abstract
Rhode Island’s accidental decriminalization of prostitution in 1980 is typically told as the story of a legal change that went unnoticed for more than two decades. This review of Alvin Roth’s latest book, Moral Economics, challenges that standard account and explores its implications for Roth’s argument that markets need social support to flourish. Drawing on court records, contemporaneous news reports, arrest statistics, and legislative proceedings, I show that the statutory change was noticed almost immediately. Prostitution-related arrests continued, not because police and prosecutors were ignorantly arresting and charging sex workers and clients under a statute that no longer existed, but because the legal system adapted using tools – primarily the loitering prohibition that survived the 1980 rewrite – that have long been used to police behavior and individuals considered repugnant. After a 2003 judicial ruling closed an important enforcement avenue against indoor sex work and vaulted the market into the open, a coalition formed around trafficking concerns that eventually paved the way for recriminalization in 2009. Rhode Island’s accidental experiment with decriminalized sex work provided neither the deliberately designed regulatory framework nor the political backing that could build the type of social support that Roth insists (correctly, in my view) markets need to function well. 

Africa’s cultural landmarks: tombs of Buganda kings

Photo of two people thatching a large conical roof with ladders surrounded by a green landscape and trees.

Built from vegetal materials, these majestic tombs housing Buganda kings bridge the realms of living and dead in Uganda

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Is everything conscious?

A cat sitting on a worn red sofa with scattered cushions against a textured beige wall.

If the question makes no sense to you, try spending some time with the principle of sufficient reason

- by Sam Kimpton-Nye

Read on Aeon

The Nobel Prize Goes to Robert Hall and Michael Woodford

Twenty-five years ago Tyler told me he thought Robert Hall should win the Nobel. He has been a contender for so long today’s award was a surprise! Hall has an unusual number of unexpectedly creative papers. His best known is on consumption.

Start with the textbook Keynesian model: Y = C + I + G + NX. Consumption is the biggest piece of Y and it also depends on Y, so C and Y have to be solved together. The consumption function was the engine of the Keynesian multiplier. The simplest version was C = a + bYd, where Yd is disposable income. Economists estimated b, forecast Y and used the forecast to predict C. Get b, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), wrong and you get fiscal policy wrong; so a lot of work went into estimating the MPC.

Hall began instead with Milton Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis. Consumption today should depend not just on today’s income but on a consumer’s expected lifetime or permanent income. Hall added rational expectations, so people estimate their permanent income using everything they know. Many economists already accepted both ideas but Hall showed that together they imply something surprising. Consumption should follow a random walk!

Suppose you learn today that you will get a large, permanent raise starting next January. If you can save and borrow, you should start spending more today. When January’s bigger paycheck arrives, it isn’t news. You already knew it was coming.

So information that predicts your income should not predict changes in your consumption. Expected changes in income are already built into your spending plans, and only surprises cause revisions. In the simplest case (quadratic utility, free borrowing and saving, and an interest rate that just offsets impatience) the theory gives

Et(Ct+1 − Ct) = 0

Given what you know today, your best guess for the change in consumption is zero. Consumption moves only on news. Past income or any other variable shouldn’t help predict tomorrow’s consumption once you know today’s consumption.

The key point is that Hall’s test didn’t need a model of how people forecast income. The old consumption functions used things like a distributed lag on past income as a stand-in for expected future income. Hall asked a different question: does anything known today predict the change in consumption tomorrow? He found that the theory was surprisingly correct! Consumption looks like a random walk. Changes in consumption are unpredictable. Later work found consumption somewhat more predictable than Hall’s strict version allows, but the random walk became the benchmark everyone measures deviations from.

The methodological change was enormous. Instead of estimating a relationship between income and spending, economists could test restrictions implied by forward-looking choice. John Cochrane’s account of learning macroeconomics at Chicago describes how deeply Hall’s approach entered the profession’s way of thinking.

This is Hall’s most famous paper but what makes Hall interesting is the number of papers he wrote on very different topics.

Hall was part of the New Monetary Economics–Tyler with Randall Krozner wrote the book on this (alas hard to get) and see also our podcast. Hall’s contribution was a proposal for a commodity standard but not a gold or silver standard. Under a gold standard the price level moves with the relative price of gold, which swings around a lot. Hall’s alternative was to define the dollar as a fixed bundle of ammonium nitrate, copper, aluminum and plywood which he called the ANCAP standard. He chose those four because a price index of the bundle had tracked the CPI closely since the war, so pegging the dollar to the bundle would have come close to stabilizing the cost of living. He didn’t want the government stockpiling fertilizer and plywood. Private arbitrage would keep paper dollars tied to the basket. Hall offered it more as an exploration of what a commodity standard could do than as a policy he was campaigning for. Tyler has said nice things about it. And yes, ANCAP also abbreviates anarcho-capitalism. I assume that’s a coincidence.

Hall’s most famous policy idea is the flat tax, written with Alvin Rabushka at Hoover. Workers pay a single rate on wages above a generous family allowance. Businesses pay the same rate on revenue minus wages, minus purchases from other firms, minus investment, which is expensed immediately. Interest, dividends and capital gains go untaxed at the household level because the business has already paid. Add it up and you have a consumption tax, a VAT that lets workers deduct an allowance so the system keeps some progressivity. Most households could file on a postcard.

Flat tax bills appeared in Congress through the 1980s and 1990s and Steve Forbes ran on it in 1996 and 2000 but we never passed a flat tax. The idea did shape the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which cut rates and broadened the base, but the mortgage interest deduction, the charitable deduction and every other carve-out had a constituency, and the constituencies won. Public choice explains this one pretty well.

Abroad, however, the flat tax took off. Estonia went first in 1994. Russia adopted a 13 percent flat tax in 2001. Slovakia, Georgia, Romania, Bulgaria and a long list of others followed. Post-communist countries were building tax systems from scratch, without decades of entrenched deductions, and with lots of evasion that a simple low rate could reduce. Rabushka keeps the flags of about thirty countries in his Hoover office, although some later backed away.

Most of the foreign versions were flat-rate income taxes. The Hall-Rabushka plan exempted saving and investment, which makes it a consumption tax, and few countries adopted that part. Estonia came closest. It eventually stopped taxing corporate profits until they were paid out as dividends, which is the Hall-Rabushka logic applied to the business side.

Here’s one more I have cited a lot in recent years, Hall and Jones on The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending. Hall and Charles Jones offered a strikingly different perspective on rising health care expenditures. Most observers see health care consuming a growing share of GDP and conclude that something has gone wrong. Hall and Jones argued that it might be exactly what we should expect from growing prosperity. Here’s the simple argument. As we become richer, the marginal value of goods and services declines; another car or another vacation matters less, but another year of life becomes more valuable. Indeed, the more goods and services  you have already the more valuable another year of life becomes! It’s better to live more, the richer you are. Thus, their model suggested that it could be optimal to spend more than 30% of GDP on health care by 2050. The United States is the world’s richest large country, why shouldn’t it spend a large share of GDP on enjoying those riches for more years?

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Massive antenna, silent mirror

In today’s Picture of the Week, the decommissioned Swedish-ESO Submillimetre Telescope (SEST), at ESO's La Silla Observatory in Chile’s Atacama Desert, shows its 15-metre diameter surface, reflecting the starry night sky of one of the most pristine sites for astronomical observations on Earth.

SEST was, at the time of its first light in 1987, the only large telescope in the southern hemisphere designed for submillimetre astronomy. It studied radiation with longer wavelengths than visible light, coming from cold clouds of gas and dust where stars form. To catch these weak signals and produce sharp images, large collecting areas are needed, resulting in telescopes as massive as SEST. “Despite knowing about its 15-meter diameter beforehand, I was amazed by its size,” says José Rodrigues, visiting astronomer at La Silla and photographer who captured this image.

While no longer in operation, SEST remains a silent mirror of La Silla’s dark night sky, coloured here by the faint natural airglow coming from atoms in our atmosphere.

Okie-dokie, Casey Handmer edition

I’ve been prototyping an automated peer review project. With current models you get human level peer review for about $0.10 of tokens. For $5 you can rederive every result, check every statistical inference, and audit every paper cited in both directions.

There are about 100m papers in the scientific corpus. Most are not important. Many are sloppy. For structural reasons it’s essentially impossible to change published work, even to correct a typo.

For $500m today you can thoroughly audit every paper ever written. Every p-hacked result, every plagiarist, every fabrication, every citation club, everything.

I don’t have $500m so instead I build a tree, focusing on the 1% of papers that carry 99% of the signal, doing a cheap first pass looking for obvious problems. I can find 90% of the nonsense for a few hundred dollars of tokens.

Any guesses where the biggest surprises will be found?

Here is the link.

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Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 132316
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Tue Oct 13 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, located about 100 miles west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and
on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Trudy, located several hundred
miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Trudy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/advisories on Tropical Storm Trudy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney
NNNN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


038
ABNT20 KNHC 132315
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, located about 100 miles west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and
on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Trudy, located several hundred
miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Trudy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/advisories on Tropical Storm Trudy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney