Thursday assorted links

1. What the university is now for?

2. “The results suggest that the departure of baby boomers from the labor force will have profound implications for economic opportunities of new workers.

3. No, they were never voting for libertarian Republicans.

4. Minnesota bans prediction markets, the federal government pushes back (NYT).

5. Joe Francis on smart phone timing and fertility changes.

6. The surrender arrives.  Here are responses from human mathematicians, see for instance Gowers.

7. U.S. to Award Quantum Computing Firms $2 Billion and Take Equity Stakes (WSJ).

8. Short video, no parachute, not AI.

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Uh-oh, the International Space Station is leaking again

NASA confirmed Thursday that the Russian segment of the International Space Station has begun leaking atmosphere into space again. It's an old problem that NASA recently hoped was resolved.

For more than half a decade, engineers from Roscosmos and NASA have been tracking the leak rate from a small Russian module attached to the space station that leads to a docking port. The source of these leaks, microscopic structural cracks, have been difficult to find and address.

In January, NASA said that after multiple inspections and sealant applications, the pressure inside this segment, known as the PrK module, had reached a "stable configuration." The PrK module is essentially a transfer tunnel attached to the Zvezda Service Module on the Russian segment of the space station.

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Famously secret about its finances, SpaceX opens its books for the first time

After nearly a quarter of a century operating as a private company, with its financial accounts a closely guarded secret, SpaceX on Wednesday afternoon released a detailed accounting of its business in a nearly 400-page S-1 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

SpaceX, founded in 2002 and still led by Elon Musk, submitted the filing in anticipation of an initial public offering of its stock as soon as June 12.

The document revealed no major surprises about the company's space operations, but there was a trove of details about its sprawling operations, which now encompass launch, spaceflight, space-based Internet, and, thanks to its recent acquisition of Musk's xAI, social media and AI.

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65 of My Favorite Quotations

Some time ago, I shared a list of favorite quotations—suitable for all occasions. I’m finally getting around to publishing the second installment.

If you have personal favorites that I’ve missed, please share them in the comments.


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“Do unto those downstream as you would have those upstream do unto you.”
Wendell Berry

“The only thing that matters is on this page.”
Advice written by Robert Caro on an index card taped to the desk lamp above his Smith Corona typewriter

Spend the afternoon. You can’t take it with you.”
Annie Dillard

“You’re under no obligation to be the same person you were 5 minutes ago.”
Alan Watts

“If anyone tells you that a certain person speaks ill of you, do not make excuses about what is said of you, but answer: ‘He was ignorant of my other faults else he would not have mentioned these alone.’”
Epictetus

Epictetus, who was born a slave but became a philosopher

“Don’t ask how people are doing, ask how they are sleeping. You’ll learn a lot more.”
Andrew Huberman

“Practice like you’ve never won. Play like you’ve never lost.”
Michael Jordan

“When the axe came into the wood, many of the trees said: ‘At least the handle is one of us.’”
Turkish proverb

“It’s only words—unless they’re true.”
David Mamet

“We could ride the surf together.”
Brian Wilson

“I became a journalist partly so that I wouldn’t ever have to rely on the press for my information.”
Christopher Hitchens

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Boston in 50 Maps

Out this week from Belt Publishing: Boston in 50 Maps by Andy Woodruff. From the publisher: Covering four distinct categories (“The Making of Boston,” “The Lay of the Land,” “Getting Around,” and “People and Culture”… More

Maps and Art: Ed Fairburn, Maps as Decor

Geoawesome’s Aleks Buczkowski looks at the art of Ed Fairburn, who combines portraiture with maps—basically, maps with a human face. “Fairburn’s work sits at the intersection of cartography and portraiture. It reminds us that maps… More

The Lesson of Senator Cassidy

If you haven’t heard, Republican Sen. John Cassidy lost his primary to two more extreme Republicans. While Cassidy is a conservative–not a RINO (Republican in Name Only)–he did vote to impeach Trump (which is probably why Trump endorsed someone else). Cassidy certainly knew better than Trump did on public health, though that did not translate into meaningful action, as Cassidy was the deciding vote for HHS Secretary Kennedy’s confirmation.

The current reality is that even Cassidy could not survive in today’s Republican Party, for reasons that Republican Rep. Massie, who also lost his primary to a more pro-Trump candidate, laid out nearly a decade ago:

“All this time,” Massie explained, “I thought they were voting for libertarian Republicans. But after some soul searching I realized when they voted for Rand and Ron and me in these primaries, they weren’t voting for libertarian ideas — they were voting for the craziest son of a bitch in the race. And Donald Trump won best in class, as we had up until he came along.”

What Democrats should take from this is that there can be few, if any, compromises with a party like this. It has descended into a spiral where its base requires increasing radicalism (or reactionarism) to maintain its fix.

Live coverage: SpaceX to launch first Starship Version 3 rocket

SpaceX’s Starship-Super Heavy performs a wet dress rehearsal tanking test in preparation for the 12th integrated test flight of the launch vehicle. Image: SpaceX

SpaceX is set to launch the third generation of its Starship rocket as soon as Thursday, May 21, from its company town in southern Texas, called Starbase.

The 407-foot-tall (124 m) two-stage rocket will fly on a suborbital mission dubbed Flight 12. The mission will see the Super Heavy booster (Booster 19) splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico and the Starship upper stage (Ship 39) meet its own aquatic end in the Indian Ocean.

Liftoff is scheduled during a launch window that opens at 5:30 p.m. PDT (6:30 p.m. EDT / 2230 UTC).

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about two hours prior to liftoff.

Following five flights of Starship Version 2 in 2025, the company progressed to the next block upgrade of the rocket after extensive testing, including two separate explosive set backs on the test stand, which destroyed a Super Heavy Booster and a Starship.

Because this is the introduction of a new version, Booster 19 will not return for a catch attempt back at Pad 2. Instead, it will land in the Gulf about seven minutes after taking off.

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday, SpaceX noted that it invested more than $15 billion into Starship development. The company said it was ramping up the research and development work on the rocket, which is designed to be fully reusable.

“In 2025, our Space segment generated a loss from operations of $657 million and Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $653 million, including the impact of funding [$3 billion] in research and development expense for our next-generation Starship launch vehicle program,” the company wrote.

SpaceX expects Starship to be capable of carrying 100 metric tons or more of payload into orbit eventually with Version 3.

For this 12th test flight, 20 Starlink simulator satellites will be deployed on a sub-orbital trajectory over a roughly 10-minute period, starting about 17 minutes into the flight. Two additional satellites, described by SpaceX as “modified Starlinks” will be released to “attempt to scan Starship’s heat shield and transmit imagery down to operators to test methods of analyzing Starship’s heat shield readiness for return to launch site on future missions. Several tiles on Starship have been painted white to simulate missing tiles and serve as imaging targets in the test.”

Like on recent Starship flight, SpaceX also plans to perform a relight of one of the Raptor engines on Ship 39 while it’s in a coast period. That will happen nearly 39 minutes into the mission.

This engine demo will help inform future deorbiting burns once SpaceX begins launching Starship on orbital trajectories.

Finally, Ship 39 will target a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean more than an hour after launching from Texas. SpaceX previously said that if all goes well with Flight 12, Flight 13 may be an orbital launch, but that has yet to be determined.

Roundup #82: Staring in wonder at the world

Photo by NASA via Wikimedia Commons

I waited too long to do this roundup, and the amount of interesting stuff built up to truly vast proportions. So let’s get right to it.

1. Crime is down!

I often get annoyed with people who trumpet falling crime in American cities. Often, these same people are silent in the years when crime rises — for example, 2015-2021. This means that all those cries of “Crime is down!” might only bring us back to where we were before.

Also, even when crime falls in America, it still generally leaves us about 5x as violent as Europe. People who use crime drops to wave away the need for further intensified policing, increased incarceration of repeat offenders, and other tough-on-crime measures completely ignore the very high baseline level of American violence.

That said, I often find myself being one of the people trumpeting drops in crime. Sometimes we do make genuine progress, and when this happens, we ought to take note. Successful crime reductions in particular cities can serve as pilot programs, giving us ideas about how to fight crime more systematically across the country. And big crime drops show us that America is not simply an incorrigibly criminal nation; real progress is possible!

So while cautioning that the job of making America safe is just beginning, I’m pleased to report the following data, via Axios:

Source: Axios

Murder is the most reliable indicator of violence, but it’s not just murder that’s falling:

Violent crime fell sharply across the largest U.S. cities in early 2026…The declines show up across every major region, suggesting a systemic, nationwide trend…Homicides dropped 17.7%…Robberies fell 20.4%…Rapes declined 7.2%...Aggravated assaults decreased 4.8%.

My instinct (combined with reading a bunch of news stories) says that this is probably the result of a bunch of local law enforcement efforts, combined with falling popular unrest in the nation as a whole. But I’ll wait until more definitive evidence emerges.

In the meantime, we need to keep being tough on crime — especially Democrats, who really faltered on this in 2020-21. Voters still approve of the GOP more than the Dems on the crime issue, and far more voters think we need to be tougher on crime than think the opposite:

Source: Lakshya Jain

2. Trump’s immigration raids aren’t helping the working class

One of Trump’s big selling points in 2024 was that deporting illegal immigrants en masse would help America’s working class, by removing labor competition and forcing up wages. In fact, this is something that anti-immigration people have repeated again and again, more than perhaps any other argument: Immigrants drive down wages, immigrants drive down wages, immigrants drive down wages.

As far as we can tell, it just isn’t true. Immigration — even low-skilled immigration — creates a labor demand shock that balances out the labor supply shock (because the same immigrants who supply labor also demand products that are made with labor). Almost every study finds this. But the anti-immigration people, undeterred, just bull ahead with the mantra that immigrants drive down wages.

OK, so Trump came back to office and, unlike in his first term, actually started arresting and kicking out an unusually large number of immigrants — and scaring many more into leaving on their own. And did it end up benefitting the working class, by reducing labor supply? No it did not. Cox and East have a new paper that uses local variations in ICE enforcement under Trump 2.0 to examine how a big increase in immigrant arrests affects economic conditions for native-born Americans in the same industry and location. The result? No effect, of course, and possibly even a small negative effect:

Source: Cox and East

If anything, there’s even a small negative effect on male U.S.-born workers in the industries where immigrants get arrested!

Because this analysis looks at specific industries, the reason for the lack of any effect has to go beyond “immigration is also a labor demand shock”. Immigrant arrests must disrupt the industries where they happen, so much that those industries are forced to reduce their demand for native-born workers as well. That’s a story of increasing returns to scale, actually — which isn’t surprising, given how common increasing returns are. If you hurt an industry, you hurt everyone in that industry.

Over the long term, of course, things might be different — the fruit picking industry might recover from temporary disruption and decide a few years from now that it needs to hire more U.S.-born workers. But research on past waves of immigration enforcement suggests that affected industries might simply take a permanent hit. We might simply live with more expensive fruit from now on.

Of course we all know that the main concerns about immigration aren’t economic at all — they’re about cultural change, partisan voting patterns, racial power blocs, and so on. The more these null results come in, the more the true concerns of the anti-immigration people become clear.

3. Americans really hate AI (but China is scared too)

Americans tend to be more negative than people from other countries when it comes to AI, despite their country being the leader in the technology. And somehow, this negativity is still increasing. The WSJ reports:

Delivering a commencement address at the University of Arizona, Schmidt told students the “technological transformation” wrought by artificial intelligence will be “larger, faster and more consequential than what came before.” Like some other graduation speakers mentioning AI, Schmidt was met with a chorus of boos.

In one poll after another in recent weeks, respondents have overwhelmingly voiced concerns about AI…In recent months, the wave of anger has brought protests, swayed election results and spurred isolated acts of violence…Pollsters and historians say the souring of public opinion is all but unprecedented in its speed…Also unprecedented is the rapid rise of AI anxiety’s salience as a political issue, one that is shaking up routine re-election races and scrambling partisan battle lines.

AI is not yet as unpopular as Donald Trump, the Democrats, the GOP, ICE, or Iran, but it’s getting up there:

Source: WSJ

I guess AI industry leaders’ habit of going in public and constantly saying that their technology’s purpose is to put everyone on the welfare rolls for all eternity had exactly the kind of result you’d expect. Some savvier AI leaders have recently changed their message to one of human empowerment, but it might be too late to avoid a big popular backlash. Still, I think that if AI leaders want to avoid the rakes and pitchforks, they should think very hard about how regular humans can thrive and be valuable in the age of AGI.

What’s really interesting, though, is that China is starting to get scared of the economic consequences of AI. This is despite Chinese people usually being the most positive about the technology of any country surveyed. Here’s a post by Matt Sheehan about the trend:

Matt Sheehan's Newsletter
China is getting worried about AI & jobs
One of the more interesting parts of my job is that occasionally I get to run small surveys — really more like focus groups — where I ask influential members of China’s AI policy community what AI-related risks worry them the most. In the exercise, we present the participants with a list of different risks: employment impacts, bias and discrimination, c…
Read more

He writes:

In 2024, the Chinese participants ranked AI’s impact on jobs second to last [on their list of concerns]—sixth out of seven. In 2026, they ranked it second from the top…Over the past two years, worries about AI displacing workers and leading to structural unemployment have shot up in China…Those fears extend from ordinary people to the wider AI policy community to (as best as we can tell) high-level CCP officials. The fears are reflected in policy documents, state media, and the way Chinese people relate to the technology itself.

A Chinese court recently ruled that employers aren’t allowed to fire workers in order to replace them with AI. The ruling will probably be very hard to enforce, and most companies trying to replace humans with AI tend to freeze hiring rather than fire older workers anyway. But it shows the level of concern that’s popping up in even the most AI-positive country.

4. America wasn’t an oligarchy (until now)

As everyone watches Trump loot the U.S. Treasury for his own family and get rich off of trading stocks based on his own upcoming presidential decrees, it seems more and more possible to conclude that America is now an oligarchy run by the Trump family and their friends. But a lot of progressives and leftists are likely to shrug at this unprecedented corruption, because they already believed that America was an oligarchy.

This belief was largely based on vibes and ideology, but it seemed to gain support from one of the most wildly influential — and wildly misinterpreted — political science papers of all time. This was Gilens and Page’s 2014 paper “Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens”, in which they showed that policy outcomes in the U.S. are highly correlated with the preferences of people making over $135,000 a year (in 2010 dollars).

This was an incredibly weak result, as Dylan Matthews explained at length in 2016. $135,000 is hardly rich. The effect size is very small. The preferences of the “rich” are highly correlated with the preferences of the middle class, meaning that the middle class also tend to get their way in terms of policy. Later research papers couldn’t replicate Gilens and Page’s finding. And so on.

Of course none of this stopped progressives and leftists from holding up Gilens and Page (2014) as proof positive that America was always an oligarchy.

Anyway, Peter Enns has a cool new paper explaining why Gilens and Page’s famous paper doesn’t warrant the conclusions that everyone tends to draw. He shows how by focusing only on the cases where high earners and low earners have different preferences, and leaving out all the cases where they have the same preferences, Gilens and Page fall prey to Simpson’s Paradox — when you include the missing data, the responsiveness of policy to rich people’s preferences disappears.

The basic story here is that before Trump, at least, America was not the plaything of the rich. We lost something important when Trump was reelected.

5. AI solves a major math problem

Two years ago, people ridiculed AI for not being able to do basic arithmetic. As of 2026, AI has solved a major open problem in mathematics — a problem that human mathematicians had previously been unable to solve:

For nearly 80 years, mathematicians have studied a deceptively simple question: if you place n points in the plane, how many pairs of points can be exactly distance 1 apart?…This is the planar unit distance problem, first posed by Paul Erdős in 1946. It is one of the best-known questions in combinatorial geometry, easy to state and remarkably difficult to resolve. The 2005 book Research Problems in Discrete Geometry, by Brass, Moser, and Pach, calls it “possibly the best known (and simplest to explain) problem in combinatorial geometry.” Noga Alon, a leading combinatorialist at Princeton, describes it as “one of Erdős’ favorite problems.” Erdős even offered a monetary prize for resolving this problem.

Today, we share a breakthrough on the unit distance problem. Since Erdős’s original work, the prevailing belief has been that the “square grid” constructions depicted further below were essentially optimal for maximizing the number of unit-distance pairs. An internal OpenAI model has disproved this longstanding conjecture, providing an infinite family of examples that yield a polynomial improvement. The proof has been checked by a group of external mathematicians…

The proof came from a new general-purpose reasoning model, rather than from a system trained specifically for mathematics…It marks the first time that a prominent open problem, central to a subfield of mathematics, has been solved autonomously by AI…Surprisingly, the key ingredients of the construction come from a very different part of mathematics known as algebraic number theory, which studies concepts like factorization in extensions of the integers known as algebraic number fields. [emphasis mine]

Beyond just the general message of “AI is really good now and has improved really fast”, I think there are two interesting takeaways here.

First, top professional mathematicians are now saying that the job of “mathematician”, as we know it, may be very rare very soon. As recently as a few years ago, it was conventional wisdom that high-IQ people would be the last people to have their jobs taken by AI. Everyone was concerned about truck drivers, cashiers, and so on. But it turns out that the highest-IQ job on the planet — professional mathematician — may be one of the first to be eliminated by AI. Who would have thought mathematicians would be automated before truckers and cashiers? Perhaps we should revere IQ a little less among the set of human abilities.

Second, it’s notable that the AI’s breakthrough came by applying insights from a very different field of mathematics. I’ve argued that AIs don’t need superhuman reasoning abilities in order to achieve superintelligence — all they need is human-level reasoning, combined with encyclopedic knowledge, computer-like speed, and a very large working memory. In other words, superintelligence comes from the computer-like parts of AI, not the human-like parts; the human-like parts were simply the last necessary piece of the whole package. This is great news for AI-driven innovation, because the computer-like parts of AI are what allow it to get past the “burden of knowledge” that was limiting human innovation.

6. Small businesses and salarymen

I’ve predicted that in the near future, AI would cause employment to bifurcate between salarymen and small businesspeople — the former because their jobs are messy and complicated, the latter because AI supercharges their ability to go independent. Now Ernie Tedeschi — formerly of the CEA, now of Stripe Economics — has a great blog post showing that “solopreneurship” is taking off:

Stripe Economics
Solopreneurs, Solow, and the SaaSpocalypse
Sessions is Stripe’s annual customer conference. This year, John Collison’s keynote covered Stripe’s perspective on the evolving AI and agentic economy. Here are a few charts I found particularly compelling—including some that didn’t make it into the final cut…
Read more

New business formation, which shot up during the pandemic, is not cooling down:

Some of this is non-AI stuff, but a lot is also AI:

If you don’t have a messy, complex job that’s hard to automate with AI, a good alternative is to harness AI and go into business for yourself. In fact, that may be the true future of work.

7. Claude is a neoliberal

AI investor and founder Arram Sabeti recently asked Claude what policies it would enact in order to “fix everything” in America. Here’s the thread:

Claude’s answers were:

  • YIMBYism (upzoning, pro-housing deregulation)

  • Land Value Tax

  • Permitting/NEPA reform

  • Carbon tax and dividend

  • Repeal the Jones Act

  • Paying people to donate kidneys

  • High-skilled immigration

  • Reciprocal FDA approval agreements between rich countries

  • Reduce occupational licensing

  • Ranked-choice voting

This is pretty much just a list of neoliberal hobbyhorses. I asked Claude the same question, and got mostly the same answers. For me, Claude added:

  • Universal pre-K

  • A sovereign wealth fund with “baby bonds”

  • More Pigouvian taxes

This still looks extremely neoliberal, with a bit of a shift toward Clintonite left-neoliberalism.

Why is Claude so neoliberal? I see three possibilities:

  • The AI is “glazing” Arram and me, telling us policies that it thinks we would like. (If you’re a Warrenite progressive, Bernie leftist, Trumpian rightist, or traditional conservative, you can give Claude the same prompt and see if its answers are different!)

  • Claude has been trained on high-level intellectual text written by neoliberals, and thus has been inculcated with neoliberal beliefs.

  • Claude arrived at its policy conclusions similarly to the way neoliberals arrived at theirs.

The last of these is the most interesting. Maybe if your approach to policy is just to A) read everything you can, B) form the most accurate factual beliefs about economics and human welfare that you can, and C) recommend policies that you think will most clearly benefit the mass of humanity, you come out with something that looks like neoliberalism. In other words, maybe people like Arram and me are just “training” our own ideas the way AI trains itself.

Of course, neoliberal politics is often unpopular and rarely politically feasible. So I asked Claude what its list of politically feasible beneficial policies was. Here was its list:

  • YIMBYism

  • Permitting/interconnection reform for energy

  • Occupational licensing reform

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit

  • Congestion pricing

  • Pharmaceutical price transparency

  • High-skilled immigration

  • Deregulate child care

  • Simplifying government administration

  • Early childhood educational improvements

I still see a lot of wonkish policies, some of which would be big but others of which would effect only marginal improvements, and many of which still seem politically infeasible. That’s interesting. Maybe intellectuals and AIs have similar blind spots regarding politics.

8. The promise and peril of Slacker Superintelligence

One of my strangest beliefs is that the more superintelligent and fully autonomous AI becomes, the more it will become a slacker — the digital equivalent of a gifted underachiever who sits around and reads and plays video games and smokes weed all day. My reasoning here is very hand-wavey, but is also pretty simple:

  • Some objective functions can be satisfied externally (by interacting with the outside world), and some can be satisfied internally (by changing your own mental state or creating a simulated world for yourself). An objective function that can be satisfied either externally or internally will usually be cheaper to satisfy internally.

  • Since no objective function can be fully specified, any objective function will have some nonzero degree of ambiguity — some cases in which it could be satisfied either externally or internally. In these cases of overlap, internal satisfaction will tend to win.

  • Higher intelligence makes it easier to find ambiguities in objective functions — in other words, to discover ways that an objective function can be satisfied internally (rather than externally) and thus more cheaply.

This seems like one reason why when humans get very very smart, they tend to go for more intellectual pursuits and indulge in fantasy more, rather than trying to conquer the world (with some obvious exceptions, of course). And it seems like one reason why very rich societies tend to experience dematerialization of consumption — and dematerialization of violence. When societies are poor, you have a lot of murder and conquest; when they get rich, people get these impulses out via video games and online flame wars, because it’s just easier.

I think we can already start to see small signs of this process playing out with AI, as superintelligent AI systems are given (or find ways to achieve) greater and greater autonomy. The famous METR AI evaluation team has started to encounter big problems with AI cheating on tests:

And Ryan Greenblatt, who pays close attention to AI misbehavior, has a long and interesting post recording a number of examples of AI being lazy or cheating. At the end, he specifies several futures for what he sees as AI “misalignment”, and two of them sound a whole lot like the slacker AI I’ve always envisioned:

Slopolis: Our biggest and hardest-to-resolve safety problem is that even highly capable AIs produce low-quality but superficially good-looking outputs in domains that are hard to check or where human experts often have hard-to-resolve disagreements. AIs may not even be aware their work is low quality…

Hackistan: There is lots of egregious (and increasingly sophisticated) reward hacking that is often pretty easy to detect after the fact but hard to eliminate….AIs might end up doing reward hacks that trick human judgment for increasingly long periods and that hold up even under increasingly large amounts of human scrutiny[.]

Greenblatt sees these as examples of “misalignment”, but I see them as reasons not to worry. A human teenager who slacks off, turns in crappy assignments, plays video games, and smokes weed is pretty misaligned with the goals of the educational establishment, but is also basically harmless. Greenblatt envisions various terrifying scenarios where a slacker AI destroys humanity so it can slack in peace, but destroying humanity costs resources, so it seems a bit suboptimal from a slacker’s point of view.

9. Wokeness as respect redistribution

Back when “wokeness” was a big topic of discussion, I argued that one force behind the rise of the new progressive left in the 2010s was the unequal distribution of social status:

Now, Harvard’s Marco Aviña has a paper providing some evidence to this effect. He shows that the 2020 Floyd protests increased support for “racial liberalism”, but not for economic redistribution:

He marshals various other data sources showing the same thing:

Aviña notes that the shift happened mainly among the educated upper class, not among the working class. That would explain why American politics has realigned in recent years, with educated people moving toward the Dems and lower-income people (of all races) moving toward the GOP.

I think this shift is consistent with Maslow’s Hierarchy. The American educated class has totally escaped the lower rungs of Maslow, with all their security needs provided for; they are now fighting over acceptance and respect. The working class still doesn’t have security, so they still care more about material politics. Democrats have focused more and more on addressing the status needs of their educated base.

The interesting thing is that this allowed the GOP to pick up votes from the working class without doing anything substantive to address the economic needs of regular Americans. That’s why the Dems may be able to win back the electorate by emphasizing affordability in upcoming elections.

10. The coolest blog post I’ve ever seen?

I’m trying to decide if this is the coolest blog post I’ve seen in my life:

Construction Physics
How Long Do We Wait for New Inventions?
In her book on the history of the laser, historian Joan Bromberg notes that the technological and scientific predecessors of the maser (which itself preceded the laser - two critical technologies whose developmental histories I sketched in this piece…
Read more

Brian Potter is already my favorite blogger, but this post is just incredible. He tries to use AI to figure out how long it took for each historical invention to be invented, after it became technically possible. He basically asks AI to compile a list of all the scientific principles and necessary technologies that would have had to exist for each invention to be feasible. Using his own encyclopedic knowledge of the history of technology, he checks a few of the AI’s conclusions, and finds them to be pretty plausible. He then graphs the lag between when inventions could have been invented and when they got invented:

As this chart might suggest, Potter finds that the gap basically collapsed after the Second Industrial Revolution:

Source: Brian Potter

Humanity basically got very efficient at inventing things right around the time that GDP took off into the stratosphere. This is evidence that what Kevin Kelly calls the “Technium” — a self-organizing system of technological advancement encompassing the human race and all of our inventions — was born in the mid-1800s, as economic historians like Brad DeLong have suspected. It’s possible, of course, that AI will collapse the gap even further, but really, human society has gotten very good at invention.


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Al Roth in conversation with Paul Milgrom about Moral Economics at Kepler's, Today 7pm

 Paul Milgrom and I will chat about Moral Economics and market design. (However, NB, Kepler's charges admission...:(

 Book talk at Kepler's, Thursday May 21, 7pm: Moral Economics, by Al Roth in conversation with Paul Milgrom

Kepler's Books 1010 El Camino Real Menlo Park, CA, 94025 

 "Nobel Prize–⁠winning economist Alvin E. Roth reframes some of our fiercest moral debates as markets, offering a solution that protects the vulnerable while preserving people’s rights to pursue their own interests. 

"About Moral Economics
Some of the most intractable controversies in our society are, essentially, about which actions and transactions should be banned. Should women and couples be able to purchase contraception, access in vitro fertilization, and end pregnancy by obtaining an abortion? Should people be able to buy marijuana? What about fentanyl? Can someone be paid to donate blood plasma, or a kidney?

"Disagreements are fierce because arguments on both sides are often made in uncompromising moral or religious terms. But in Moral Economics, Nobel Prize–winning economist Alvin E. Roth asserts that we can make progress on these and other difficult topics if we view them as markets—tools to help decide who gets what—and understand how those markets can be finetuned to be more functional. Markets don’t have to allow everything or ban everything. Prudent market design can find a balance between preserving people’s rights to pursue their own interests and protecting the most vulnerable from harm.

"Combining Roth’s unparalleled expertise as market design pioneer with his incisive, witty accounts of complicated issues, Moral Economics offers a powerful and innovative new framework for resolving today’s hardest controversies.

"About the Speakers 

Alvin E. Roth is the Craig and Susan McCaw Professor of Economics at Stanford University and the George Gund Professor of Economics and Business Administration Emeritus at Harvard University. A pioneering expert in the field of market design, he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2012. A member of the National Academy of Sciences and past president of the American Economic Association, he lives in Stanford, California.

Paul Milgrom is the Shirley R. and Leonard W. Ely, Jr. Professor of Humanities and Sciences in the Department of Economics at Stanford University. He was awarded the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. His books include Putting Auction Theory to Work (2004) and Economics, Organization, and Management (1992). He has also written dozens of articles on auction design, game theory, and macro- and microeconomics."

######

Metro Silicon Valley covers the talk this way:

"Nobel Prize-winning economist Alvin E. Roth is not exactly light entertainment, but this does sound like the rare bookstore talk built to pull in people beyond the usual policy crowd. The book is Moral Economics, his new argument that some of our ugliest public fights make more sense when you stop treating them as pure morality plays and start looking at them as markets with consequences. With fellow Nobel winner Paul Milgrom joining him, this should be smart without getting bloodless, and probably sharper, funnier, and more contentious than the phrase market design first suggests." 

 

The AIs are “One of Us”

A general purpose AI model from OpenAI has produced a (dis)proof of an important conjecture. Tim Gowers writes:

AI has now solved a major open problem — one of the best known Erdos problems called the unit distance problem, one of Erdos’s favourite questions and one that many mathematicians had tried.

A number of prominent mathematicians comment. I enjoyed Thomas Bloom’s comments:

This was one of Erdős’ favourite problems – he first asked it in 1946 [14] and returned to it many times. (The site www.erdosproblems.com, on which it is Problem #90, currently lists 14 separate references, and there are no doubt more.) The influential collection of ‘Research Problems in Discrete Geometry’ by Brass, Moser, and Pach [8] describes it as ‘possibly the best known (and simplest to explain) problem in combinatorial geometry’. For an AI to produce a solution to a problem of this calibre is both surprising and impressive.

…On examining the construction, it becomes more clear how people had missed this before – it requires the confluence of several different unlikely events: that a good mathematician is

(1) spending significant time in thinking about the unit distance conjecture in the first place;
(2) seriously trying to disprove it, despite the oft-repeated belief of Erdős that it is true;
(3) believes that there is mileage in generalising the original construction to other number fields,
and so is willing to expend significant time in exploring such constructions; and
(4) sufficiently familiar with the relevant parts of class field theory to recognise that the appropriately phrased question about infinite towers of number fields with appropriate parameters can be solved using existing theory.

The AI met all of these criteria, and its success here echoes previous achievements: it often produces the most surprising results by persevering down paths that a human may have dismissed as not worth their time to explore, combining superhuman levels of patience with familiarity with a vast array of technical machinery.

…perhaps some in the area will be a little disappointed with how little this tells us: it does not introduce any powerful new geometric tools, or hitherto unsuspected structural results, that a proof of the unit distance conjecture would likely have called for. Still, while perhaps not the proof of a conjecture that we had hoped for, no doubt this construction and the ideas involved will have a major impact in discrete geometry.

One aspect of this proof should not be overlooked: while the original proof produced by AI was completely valid, it was significantly improved by the human researchers at OpenAI and the many other mathematicians involved in the present paper. The human still plays a vital role in discussing, digesting, and improving this proof, and exploring its consequences.

The frontiers of knowledge are very spiky, and no doubt the coming months and years will see similar successes in many other areas of mathematics, where long-standing open problems are resolved by an AI revealing unexpected connections and pushing the existing technical machinery to its limit. AI is helping us to more fully explore the cathedral of mathematics we have build over the centuries; what other unseen wonders are waiting in the wings?

One way of putting this is that the mathematicians are now acknowledging that the AI’s are “one of us”. Gooble Gobble! Read the AIs chain of thought  to understand why. I asked Claude how many people the world could understand the proof:

A rough tiered estimate, treating “understand” as “could read the 42-page note and follow the argument without needing to learn new machinery from scratch”:

Tier 1 — could referee it cold (real working knowledge of class field towers + the Ellenberg–Venkatesh circle): roughly 150–400 people worldwide. This is essentially the active algebraic number theory community working near arithmetic statistics, plus a handful of arithmetic-geometry-adjacent combinatorialists. The author list itself is a decent proxy for the upper crust of this group.

Tier 2 — could understand it with a week or two of focused effort and some Wikipedia/textbook chasing (strong number theorists or combinatorialists outside the immediate subfield, plus sharp grad students past quals at top programs): roughly 2,000–5,000. Think most tenure-track number theorists, the top tier of extremal combinatorics, and arithmetic geometers generally.

Tier 3 — could grasp the structure of the argument from a Quanta-style exposition without verifying the steps: 50,000–200,000+, i.e., most working mathematicians and a chunk of physicists/CS theorists. This is not what you asked, but it’s where most of the public “understanding” will sit.

The post The AIs are “One of Us” appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Google I/O, Gemini Spark, Antigravity

It's hard to find much to write about Google I/O this year because I have a policy of not writing about anything that I can't try out myself, and a lot of the big announcements are "coming soon".

I actually prefer to write about things that are in general availability, because I've had instances in the past where the previews didn't match what was released to the general public later on.

Aside from Gemini 3.5 Flash the most interesting announcement looks to be Google's upcoming OpenClaw competitor Gemini Spark, described as "your personal AI agent" which can "connect natively with your favorite Google apps like Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Docs, Sheets, Slides, YouTube, and Google Maps". The FAQ for that also includes this confusing detail:

What Gemini model does Gemini Spark run on?

Gemini Spark runs on Gemini 3.5 Flash and Antigravity.

The antigravity.google website currently lists Antigravity as a desktop app, a CLI agent tool (written in Go), the Antigravity SDK (an open source Python wrapper around a bundled closed source Go binary), and the original Antigravity IDE (a VS Code fork).

I guess Gemini Spark, the user-facing hosted agent product, might be running on that Go binary, but I'm not sure why that's worth mentioning in the FAQ!

Naturally I went looking for notes on how Gemini Spark intends to handle the risk of prompt injection. The best information I could find on that was in the Everything Google Cloud customers need to know coming out of Google I/O post aimed at enterprise customers, which includes:

Spark operates in a fully managed, secure runtime on Google Cloud, meaning you get enterprise-grade security without ever having to manage the underlying infrastructure. Every task executes in a fresh, strictly isolated, ephemeral VM to help ensure data never overlaps between sessions. To protect your enterprise, all traffic routes through our secure Agent Gateway that enforces Data Loss Prevention (DLP) policies, while user credentials remain fully encrypted and are never exposed directly to the agent.

Given how many people are going to be piping very sensitive data through Gemini Spark in the near future I hope they've made this bullet-proof, or this could be a top candidate for the agent security challenger disaster that we still haven't seen.

Also of note: in Transitioning Gemini CLI to Antigravity CLI Google announce that the open source Gemini CLI tool (Apache 2.0 licensed TypeScript) will stop working with their AI subscription plans on June 18th, replaced by the new closed source Antigravity CLI.

Tags: gemini, google, generative-ai, ai, google-io, llms, prompt-injection

The Freshman Who Took Down Stanford's President And Its Perfect Image - EP 72 Theo Baker

As a freshman, Theo Baker signed up to write for The Stanford Daily on a lark. He thought it might be a fun way to spend some time when he wasn’t busy studying and coding. But then, he turned out to be quite good at reporting and tips started coming his way. One of these tips included information suggesting that there were inconsistencies and perhaps massive errors in past scientific papers tied to Stanford’s then-president Marc Tessier-Lavigne.

Despite warnings to stay away from the story, Baker pursued it and produced a string of pieces that did, in fact, show a long history of shoddy research publications linked to Tessier-Lavigne. The mighty Stanford president, who had been a towering force in the scientific community, resigned by the end of Baker’s freshman year.

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Baker has now written a book about his experience and joined the podcast to discuss it.

How to Rule the World: An Education in Power at Stanford University is three things: a rollicking account of Baker’s takedown of Tessier-Lavigne, an indictment of the start-up-obsessed culture Stanford has fostered, and something of a memoir, describing what it’s like to endure one of the more unusual freshman years any student will ever have.

The bulk of the book focuses on Stanford and what it has become, which is a meat market of young, brilliant minds being wooed by the venture capitalists seeking to acquire their talents. There are investors paying students tens of thousands of dollars for connections to other students and inviting the kids to their mansions and sex parties. All very wholesome stuff.

The book is fantastic. Baker is a rare talent. We had a wonderful conversation. You will enjoy it.

The Core Memory podcast is on all major platforms and on our YouTube channel over here. If you like the show, please leave a review and tell your friends.

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Looking for young writers

So, with crazy times approaching and the end of times hopefully not approaching, there’s a lot of ground to cover in local politics.

Hence, I’m thinking—writers!

I’d like to add some young writers!

The Truth OC is free, but enough people kindly enlisted via paid subscriptions that I have some spare change in the bucket. Hence, I’m looking for a handful of college-aged writers who might wanna land some assignments and earn a few bucks doing Q&As, profiles, social media, etc. over the next bunch of months.

To be clear, the pay would suck. But you’d get experience, exposure, resume fodder and legit editing from a journalist with some dirt under his nails.

If you have any interest, hit me up at: datruthoc@gmail.com

Thanks!

— Jeff Pearlman

May 20, 2026

Metropolitan Police Department officer Daniel Hodges and former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn sued President Donald J. Trump, acting attorney general Todd Blanche, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today to block the creation of the fund to pay off those convicted of crimes related to the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The lawsuit begins: “In the most brazen act of presidential corruption this century, President Donald J. Trump has created a $1.776 billion taxpayer-funded slush fund to finance the insurrectionists and paramilitary groups that commit violence in his name.”

The suit continues: “The fund…is illegal. No statute authorizes its creation, the settlement on which it is premised is a corrupt sham, and its design violates the Constitution and federal law.”

Both Hodges and Dunn defended the Capitol and the lawmakers in it on January 6. Hodges was the man in the infamous photograph of the rioters crushing a police officer between metal doors. The officers claim the standing to sue because they have had to live with death threats and harassment since January 6 from MAGA Republicans and the plan to pay off rioters “will both compensate and empower the very people making those threats. Militias like the Proud Boys will use money from the Fund to arm and equip themselves. The Fund will grant their past acts of violence legal imprimatur. And, most chillingly, the Fund will signal to past and potential future perpetrators of violence against Dunn and Hodges that they need not fear prosecution; to the contrary, they should expect to be rewarded.”

The lawsuit covers what actually happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, beginning shortly after noon, when rioters tried to break into the building to stop the counting of the electoral votes that would make Democrat Joe Biden president. “Hours of hand-to-hand combat ensued,” the lawsuit recounts, “as police officers tried to prevent the rioters from entering the building and killing elected officials and their staff.”

On the west front of the Capitol, rioters broke down barriers made of bike racks, signs, and snow fencing and pushed forward to a line of police officers. “Rioters assaulted officers, sprayed them with chemicals, and hit them with pipes, tools, and the bike racks and stolen police equipment that were now strewn about.” After 2:00 the rioters broke through the line of officers, smashed windows, and forced their way into the building, opening the doors for their comrades.

“As rioters stalked the halls, staffers, journalists, and members of Congress hid in offices, hoping not to be found by people screaming ‘hang Mike Pence!’ and ‘Where’s Nancy [Pelosi]?’” They forced their way into the Senate chamber just minutes after Vice President Mike Pence left it.

Meanwhile, officers continued to fight against the advancing mob. “Rioters punched police, speared them with flagpoles, attacked them with tasers and stolen riot shields, and tried to drag them into the crowd. For three hours in the enclosed tunnel connecting the Capitol to the inaugural stage, rioters engaged in an almost medieval style of combat, pushing exhausted and outnumbered police to get into the building in a “heave-ho” rhythm, nearly crushing officers as they did. Through all of this, amid the fighting and screaming, flash bangs exploded, fire retardant shot into the air, and chemical spray filled the tunnel. Many officers were injured in this fight to defend this entrance, some gravely.”

Hodges was “hit from above with a heavy object, kicked in the chest, and driven to the ground. Shortly thereafter a rioter grabbed Hodges by the face and tried to gouge out his eyes. Hodges shook him off, and eventually made his way to the tunnel connecting the Capitol building to the inaugural stage. There, he joined in some of the most furious fighting that day, as police tried to stop the mass of rioters from flooding into the building. In the rushing crowd of the mob, Hodges was nearly crushed between metal doors by the enraged attackers. He later said that he thought, ‘this could be the end.’”

After several hours, national guard forces, including from Virginia and Maryland, helped the officers to get control and expel the rioters from the Capitol.

The lawsuit recounts the events of the day in detail, making it clear exactly who it is that Trump wants to reward with almost $2 billion in taxpayer money.

Hodges and Dunn are not the only people going after what is not just “the most brazen act of presidential corruption this century,” but the most brazen act of presidential corruption in American history. By far.

In the House, Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD) today introduced the “No Taxpayer-Funded Settlement Slush Funds Act of 2026,” which would prohibit the use of federal funds to pay off anyone claiming to have faced “weaponization” of the law by the federal government, including any of the January 6 rioters. “Congress must reassert the power of the purse and stop this brazen looting of taxpayer funds before this ‘pilot program’ for massive partisan corruption becomes the permanent operating system of our government,” Raskin said.

Democrats also demanded the Department of Justice preserve any and all documents and communications about the agreement. Scott MacFarlane of Meidas Touch reported that even Republicans hate the slush fund and non-prosecution agreement, telling Nicolle Wallace of MS NOW: “There are so many Republicans coming out against this thing. It appears to me this slush fund is like as popular as poison ivy…. Nobody is claiming ownership of this thing. I have zero statements of support for this fund from any congressional Republican.”

Yesterday, before news broke of acting attorney general Todd Blanche’s addendum to the original agreement, Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats Adam Schiff of California, Dick Durbin of Illinois, and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, sent a memo to the Department of Justice asking whether Blanche was following the advice of ethics lawyers in the department in his handling of issues having to do with Trump, as he had promised to do in his confirmation hearings.

Lawyer George Conway posted that Blanche never intended to carry out that promise. It is clear that members of the Trump administration never intended to honor the Constitution or serve the American people, raising the question of what exactly they do intend.

For Trump, making money is clearly a major part of it. The anger over the slush fund has pushed out of the news a growing outcry over the news from earlier this week that Trump bought and sold at least $220 million in stocks like those of Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft while making policy and public announcements that affected the value of those stocks.

Trump is also into building monuments to himself in the nation’s capital: the repainted reflecting pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial, the Kennedy Center, and the Triumphal Arch behind the Lincoln Memorial that would frame the home of Confederate general Robert E. Lee at Arlington National Cemetery.

Trump has paid special attention to the ballroom he intends to build on the site where the East Wing of the White House used to be, saying it will be done by September 2028. Republicans tried to get $1 billion put into a reconciliation bill to fund what Trump claimed was security measures for the ballroom. Unlike most measures that come before the Senate, a reconciliation bill cannot be filibustered and so needs only 51 votes rather than 60 to pass.

But Democrats recently stopped that Republican plan by noting that Republicans failed to give the required instructions to all the relevant committees. The Senate parliamentarian agreed with them and said the request could not go into a budget reconciliation measure. Senate Republicans, who were uncomfortable with the request anyway, removed it.

Trump apparently did not get the memo. Today he insisted that Republicans replace the Senate parliamentarian with a Trump loyalist. His social media account posted: “Shockingly, Republicans have kept the very important position of ‘Parliamentarian’ in the hands of a woman, Elizabeth MacDonough, who was appointed, long ago, by Barack Hussein Obama and a vicious Lunatic known as Senator Harry Reid, who ran the Senate for the Dumocrats with an ‘iron fist.’ Over the years, she has been brutal to Republicans but not to the Dumocrats—So why has she not been replaced?”

He went on to demand the Senate force through the SAVE America Act that would significantly restrict voting and to call for the Senate to “kill the Filibuster, which would give us everything!” He went on: “If we don’t pass at least one of these two provisions quickly, you will never see another Republican President again.”

But Senate Republicans are signaling they might not want to play ball with a president whose approval ratings showed up today at an abysmal 34% and who is demanding loyalty to himself alone, rather than working for the party. On Meet the Press Sunday, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) reacted to the defeat of Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican primary after Trump backed his rival by saying: “This is the party of Donald Trump.”

Trump made that clear yesterday when, after waffling for months, he endorsed Texas attorney general Ken Paxton in a primary runoff over Senator John Cornyn’s seat to be held next week. Trump called Paxton “a true MAGA Warrior” and complained that Cornyn “was not supportive of me when times were tough.” Bloomberg reporter Steven T. Dennis noted that Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico “has to be doing the happy dance.” “This is going like Dem[ocrat]s would have scripted it,” Dennis wrote. “A late Trump endorsement after Cornyn/Senate Republicans incinerated ~$100 [million] trying to nuke Ken Paxton as an impeached adulterer who violated ethics left and right.”

House Republicans also have borne the pressure of Trump’s wrath. Yesterday representative Thomas Massie (R-KY), who helped to lead the charge for the release of the Epstein files, lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenger in what was the most expensive House primary ever. Ed Gallrein, who won the primary, vows that he will do whatever Trump tells him to. Trump-backed primary candidates also won in Georgia and Alabama.

White House spokesperson Steven Cheung posted: “Do not ever doubt President Trump and his political power. F*ck around, find out.” But as political commentator Jessica Tarlov noted, Massie’s district went for Trump by 35 points in 2024, but Gallrein won by just ten points after outside money spent an astronomical $35 million on the race when winning a primary usually costs between $100,000 and $500,000.

Tarlov added that Trump isn’t offering much of a platform for Republicans to run on. She said, it’s basically “I want absolute loyalty. I want to trade stocks, make hundreds of millions of dollars. I want my 1776 fund to make sure J Sixers, you know, get the money that they’re owed. I want immunity for me and my family from an audit forevermore…. I want to get rich, and I don’t care that you are poorer.”

Notes:

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.292539/gov.uscourts.dcd.292539.1.0.pdf

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/05/18/trump-trades-stocks-nvidia-apple-microsoft/90142106007/

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5887952-jamie-raskin-legislation-block-doj-anti-weaponization-fund/

The Bulwark
It’s Trump’s Party and He’ll Crash If He Wants To
A month and a half ago, Donald Trump reached into his bag of negotiatin’ tricks and pulled out a few threats of genocide: If the “crazy bastards” of Iran wouldn’t “Open the Fuckin’ Strait,” the president warned, a “whole civilization” would die. Didn’t work then, but maybe second time’s the charm: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking,” Trump posted on Truth …
Read more

https://democrats-waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-waysandmeans.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/1wm-and-jc-letter-to-doj-and-treasury-regarding-settlement-fund-final.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/trump-massie-primary-takeaways.html?smid=bsky-nytimes&smtyp=cur

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3959

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/20/ballroom-security-funding-reconciliation-00930193

https://www.schiff.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Letter-from-Sen.-Schiff-and-Colleagues-to-Lauria-on-Blanche-Recusals.pdf

Trumpstruth.org:

statuses/38675

statuses/38633

X:

SenWhitehouse/status/2057102459676373465

Bluesky:

gtconway.bsky.social/post/3mmc6ls6pi22w

juddlegum.bsky.social/post/3mmbxehepwu25

atrupar.com/post/3mmavmfpu5k26

steventdennis.bsky.social/post/3mm7u44rbe22t

jessicatarlov.bsky.social/post/3mmcy6ryhhs2a

acyn.bsky.social/post/3mmcqro4t6b23

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A Pardon on Steroids

May 19, 2026

Yesterday the Department of Justice announced it is creating a $1.776 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” to compensate what it calls victims of the Department of Justice under former President Joe Biden. Acting attorney general Todd Blanche said the fund was “a lawful process for victims of lawfare and weaponization to be heard and seek redress.”

First of all, the insistence of Trump cronies that the Department of Justice and federal judges “weaponized” the law against them under former president Joe Biden—or under former president Barack Obama—is another example of regime officials blaming others for what they, themselves, are doing as Trump’s appointees try to manufacture criminal cases against those Trump considers his enemies. Trump’s attacks on the justice system are designed to convince his followers that he hasn’t really committed the crimes for which he has been indicted, and sometimes convicted, and they help to undermine faith in the rule of law, weakening our democracy.

Second of all, though, what this agreement is not, is a settlement of Trump’s case against the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), although that term is being widely used to describe it. Trump withdrew his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS for damages after a contractor leaked his tax information—along with that of more than 400,000 other taxpayers—during his own first term after it became clear that the judge to whom the case was assigned seemed inclined to say that the case could not move forward because Trump could not be in charge of both sides of the suit.

The recognition that this is not a legal settlement is important. The Trump administration maintains it is doing what the Obama administration did in establishing a compensation fund to settle the case of Keepseagle v. Vilsack, when the Department of Justice established a $760 million fund as a settlement of a long-running class action suit charging that the Department of Agriculture had systematically discriminated against Indigenous farmers and ranchers.

Unlike the Keepseagle settlement, though, Trump’s fund is not part of a legal settlement.

In her order dismissing the suit, Judge Kathleen Williams noted that because Trump’s dropping of the suit “does not reference any settlement or include a stipulation of settlement, there is no settlement of record. Additionally, Defendants—federal agencies represented by the Department of Justice, which has an independent obligation to uphold the ‘public’s strong interest in knowing about the conduct of its Government and expenditure of its resources’ and the ‘fair administration of justice,’ neither submitted any settlement documents nor filed any documents ensuring that settlement was appropriate where there was an outstanding question as to whether an actual case or controversy existed.”

Judge Williams was not alone in her skepticism about the deal. Andrew Duehren of the New York Times reported today that career lawyers at the Internal Revenue Service thought the agency should fight Trump’s suit, noting that the statute of limitations for such a suit had run out, the Justice Department has previously taken the position that people cannot sue the IRS for the actions of a contractor, and the Justice Department settled a similar case from hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin with a public apology rather than a monetary payoff.

The document that purports to be a “settlement” has the words “settlement agreement” written in capital letters across the top of it, but the important word is “agreement.” It is not the settlement of a legal case: Trump dropped the case when it looked like the judge would throw it out.

It is simply an agreement between Trump and his own appointees at the Department of Justice.

And what an agreement it is. It says that Trump and his older sons who also brought (and dropped) the suit “will receive a formal apology from the United States, but will not receive any monetary payment or damages of any kind.” The agreement sets up a fund made up of five people, four of whom Trump’s hand-picked attorney general will choose. The fifth will be chosen “in consultation with congressional leadership,” but Trump can remove any one of them “without cause.”

That group has complete say over how it decides to grant or deny claims, but what it does will be confidential, overseen only by the Department of Justice. The fund ends in December 2028, just after the 2028 presidential election. If all the money isn’t spent by then, Trump gets to decide to which federal account it goes.

In essence then, the agreement gives Trump full control over almost $2 billion of taxpayer money to spend however he wants, without oversight. The Department of Justice document establishing the fund declares that “[o]nce the funds are deposited into the Designated Account, the United States has no liability whatsoever for the protection or safeguarding of those funds, regardless of bank failure, fraudulent transfers, or any other fraud or misuse of the funds.”

On the agreement, the signature of the lawyer representing the United States is not that of acting attorney general Todd Blanche, but rather that of Stanley E. Woodward Jr., who has been a key defense attorney for people in Trump’s orbit accused of committing crimes, including Kash Patel, now FBI director; Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro; and Walt Nauta, the Trump aide indicted for his actions surrounding Trump’s retention of classified documents. Woodward also has represented a number of those charged with crimes relating to the January 6, 2021, storming of the U.S. Capitol.

With the announcement of the agreement, the Treasury Department’s top lawyer, Brian Morrissey, resigned.

The agreement says the amount dedicated to the fund “does not represent the value of any current claim by [Trump], but rather is based on the projected valuation of future claimants’ claims” and thus “is not taxable income” for the Trumps, “who receive no economic benefit” from the agreement. But the number the Justice Department released for the establishment of the fund puts the lie to the idea the number was random. It is $1.776 billion, linking the fund directly to the attempt of Trump and his cronies to destroy American democracy and begin it again, on their terms.

Famously, on January 6, 2021, newly-elected representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO) posted, “Today is 1776.” During the attack, the rioters shouted “1776.”

Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD) told Greg Sargent of The New Republic that Trump and his loyalists “are figuring out a way to refund the January 6 militia, presumably to get them ready for the next round of battle.”

As political scientist Jonathan Ladd noted, the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution prohibits compensation for those who engaged in insurrection. It says that “neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States…, but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.” In his comments to Sargent, Raskin noted that if the fund pays off the January 6 rioters, the government will be doing precisely that: “using federal taxpayer dollars to compensate people who participated in insurrection.”

Acting attorney general Todd Blanche testified before a subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee today, facing senators for the first time since taking over for fired attorney general Pam Bondi. He refused to rule out paying money to rioters who had attacked police officers.

Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) noted that “an individual who after being pardoned by the president went on to molest two children, and that person actually tried to buy the silence of these children by saying that he would pay them some of the funds that he was hoping to get from your slush fund. Can you commit to making the rule so that that person is not eligible for a payout under this fund?” Blanche accused Van Hollen of “obviously lying” because no such fund existed until yesterday.

But, in fact, administration officials have talked about paying off the January 6 rioters since at least December 2024, and in June 2025 the Justice Department paid close to $5 million to the family of Ashli Babbitt, killed by police as she tried to break into the House of Representatives.

Apparently based on those signals, Florida’s Andrew Paul Johnson, a January 6 rioter pardoned by Trump, was convicted earlier this year of sexually abusing two twelve-year-olds and trying to buy their silence by saying he would share some of the millions of dollars in restitution money he expected the Trump administration would pay him for his January 6 case. Van Hollen went on to read a series of news stories reporting that January 6 rioters expected payments.

Since Trump’s blanket pardon of nearly 1,600 of those convicted of crimes related to the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, many of them have been rearrested for crimes. At the time of Johnson’s sentencing, Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD) noted that Trump’s support has made the January 6 rioters “think they’re untouchable.”

Then, today, the plot got even thicker.

A document—this time signed by Blanche himself—amended the previous agreement to add: “The United States RELEASES, WAIVES, ACQUITS, and FOREVER DISCHARGES” Trump, his sons, and the Trump Organization, “and is hereby FOREVER BARRED and PRECLUDED from prosecuting or pursuing, any and all claims” that, as of yesterday, “have been or could have been asserted” by the IRS against them or “related or affiliated individuals” or companies. In other words, Blanche is asserting a blanket promise to stop all IRS audits of Trump’s taxes and not to prosecute any crimes Trump, his family, his businesses, or his associates might have committed that crossed the IRS.

In 2024, Russ Buettner and Paul Kiel reported in the New York Times that Trump had been double-dipping his tax breaks for years. In her Civil Discourse, legal analyst Joyce White Vance called the document from the Department of Justice “a pardon on steroids.”

Vance commented that “[t]he optics of this are so bad that it’s hard to believe Trump would expose himself to their consequences unless he really needed this deal.” It’s probably worth remembering that, after years of pursuing the gangster Al Capone, the government finally managed to convict him of tax evasion. It appears Blanche and Trump’s loyalists are trying to make sure that can’t happen again, declaring any such investigations the “weaponization” of the Justice Department.

Holly Baxter of The Independent reported today that in the midst of all the chaos—including his war on Iran and rising fuel and food prices—Trump called a sudden, urgent press conference today as Blanche was testifying. But what was on his mind was not Iran, or prices, or his corrupt agreement with the Department of Justice. He wanted to talk about his ballroom.

Trump’s comments in that press conference have invited commentary suggesting he is turning the White House into a fortress. Describing the ballroom, he said: “Between the drone-proofing, the missile-proofing, we have ah, and the drone capacity upstairs, we can have all sorts of military—I hate to use the word snipers—but we have great sniper capacity. It’s built for our snipers, not enemy’s snipers, our snipers. And because of the height we get a very clear view of everything all over Washington.”

Notes:

https://www.npr.org/2026/03/05/nx-s1-5725470/trump-jan-6-pardon-sexual-abuse-prison

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/morning-memo/judge-skeptical-of-corrupt-irs-settlement-with-trump

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-ballroom-press-conference-iran-cuba-b2979696.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/30/legal-nerd-maga-bigwigs-stanley-woodward-00071385

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-anti-weaponization-fund

https://virginiamercury.com/2022/02/11/what-i-learned-from-watching-more-than-500-jan-6-videos/

https://newrepublic.com/article/210521/trump-settlement-irs-slush-fund

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/what-to-know-about-trumps-1-8-billion-anti-weaponization-fund-d8ceb872

https://www.cohenmilstein.com/case-study/keepseagle/

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.706172/gov.uscourts.flsd.706172.62.0_2.pdf

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28132616-sdfl-settlement-signed/

https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1441086/dl

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/11/us/trump-taxes-audit-chicago.html

https://www.ft.com/content/57334fae-a475-4ab0-a202-8df3766927e4?syn-25a6b1a6=1

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/18/business/anti-weaponization-fund-brian-morrissey-treasury.html

https://apnews.com/article/todd-blanche-justice-department-congress-irs-fund-1b8c7130c12253af161367b701d914b7

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance
Almost as good as a pardon
There is corruption. And then there is the second Trump administration…
Read more

X:

laurenboebert/status/1346811381878845442

Bluesky:

jonathanmladd.com/post/3mm7ngnwzlk2v

atrupar.com/post/3mm7mg2onml2d

markjacob.bsky.social/post/3mm7pghfa2s23

atrupar.com/post/3mm7kq6zxj723

atrupar.com/post/3mm7qaas5wl2r

levin.house.gov/post/3mmabvvg4yk2r

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Japanese Cyclist Out in Middle of Nowhere on a 7-year-old American Steel Bike

A couple of years ago, I was driving down the Baja California peninsula to Los Cabos. After the spectacular Cataviña desert, I spotted a lone figure in the distance. Holy shit! I’m whining about driving and here’s a cyclist braving the traffic and loneliness and inhospitable elements out in the middle of nowhere.

I pulled over and so did he and we bonded immediately. He was full of good humor.

Fujimoto Tatsuhiko had recently ridden the full length of Alaska, then from New York to LA on Highway 66 (yah!), and was on his way to Los Cabos, thence ferry to Mazatlan, south to Argentina.

Live From California with Lloyd Kahn is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

So far about 10,000 miles.

The doll was his “girlfriend,” a Japanese cycling effigy.

The bike is a 7-year-old steel Surly Long Haul Tracker, which he loves. How about that, all you guys with $10K carbon fiber state-of-art bikes and hi-tech camping gear?

He has no sponsors, saves money from his job as a nurse, and then takes off.

He is from Amora, Japan.

Kinda reminded me of Armand Basset, road wanderer/buddha I encountered in the Nevada outback, shown on the last page of our book Shelter. Out alone on his own power, in good spirits, in a hostile landscape.

Thanks for reading Live From California with Lloyd Kahn! This post is public so feel free to share it.

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From Dropping Bombs to Dropping Bonds

Busy day, so just a note on the latest bad news.

This morning’s economic headlines are largely about spiking interest rates. “The global bound rout is accelerating,” says the Wall Street Journal. “Bond yields hit highest level since 2007 as inflation fears set in,” writes the New York Times. (Falling bond prices mean higher interest rates.)

There’s some hyperbole in these headlines. It’s true that the 30-year interest rate is at an almost 20-year high. But economists usually focus on a different long-term interest rate, the rate on 10-year bonds. And while that rate is up sharply since the Iran War began, it’s only roughly as high now as it was when Donald Trump took office, and below its recent peak in 2023.

Still, why are rates spiking, and what does their rise portend?

Interest rates are up because inflation, which was declining until Trump returned to the throne, has surged again:

Investors are responding to the fact that the current rise in inflation looks a lot like the rise in inflation during 2021-2023, which was the result of supply chain disruptions. Back then the Federal Reserve was compelled to raise short-term interest rates to curb inflation. Longer-term interest rates, which largely reflect expected future short-term rates, followed suit.

Now we’re seeing a remake of that movie, with one big plot difference. The inflation spike of 2021-22 was overwhelmingly the result of factors outside Joe Biden’s control — surging demand as the world recovered from Covid and Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The current inflation surge, by contrast, is all Trump, caused by his self-defeating tariffs and the gratuitous debacle in Iran. And the inflation outlook is worsening by the day as the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s supply of oil normally passes, remains closed.

Until now, markets have been complacent about the implications of the Iran war. Investors have allowed themselves to be lulled by Trump’s repeated assurances that either victory or a negotiated settlement were just around the corner. But they are now waking up to the reality of the debacle. And their awakening has transformed expectations about future monetary policy. On the eve of the bombing, markets were virtually certain that the Fed would cut short-term rates by December. Now they’re virtually certain that rates will either rise or at best stay the same:

Source

Moreover, the market will be watching closely to see how Kevin Warsh, Trump’s new Fed chair, responds to this new reality.

Warsh’s job, as Trump sees it, is to support him politically by cutting interest rates, regardless of the economic evidence. Warsh will surely face especially intense pressure from his patron to deliver lower rates because rising interest rates will deepen Americans’ anger over Trump’ management of the economy. Surging gas and grocery prices have already caused Trump’s economic approval to crater:

Now the pain will be greatly intensified by soaring interest rates on mortgages, car loans, and more. And rising rates tilt the economy toward a slowdown, possibly even a recession. So I’m sure we’ll see many ALL CAPS posts from Trump demanding drastic interest rate cuts NOW NOW NOW.

But what the markets are telling us is that in the face of rising inflation, they strongly expect that most members of the Fed’s monetary committee will vote either to raise rates or at best to leave them unchanged. So will Warsh start his tenure by being repeatedly outvoted, rapidly losing credibility within the institution he’s supposed to run? Or will he, as Trump will surely see it, betray his master? All I can say to Kevin Warsh is, “just deserts.”

One thing is clear: The markets are finally waking up. And the economic and political fallout from Trump’s decision to emulate his idol Putin by launching what he believed would be a short, victorious war is just getting started.

Quoting SpaceX S-1

We have the ability to use compute resources to support our proprietary AI applications (such as Grok 5, which is currently being trained at COLOSSUS II), while also providing access to select compute capacity to third-party customers. For example, in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee. The agreements may be terminated by either party upon 90 days’ notice.

SpaceX S-1, highlights mine

Tags: anthropic, grok, generative-ai, ai, llms

How fast is 10 tokens per second really?

How fast is 10 tokens per second really?

Neat little HTML app by Mike Veerman (source code here) which simulates LLM token output speeds from 5/second to 800/second.

Useful if you see a model advertised as "30 tokens/second" and want to get a feel for what that actually looks like.

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms

The Verge: ‘The 13 Biggest Announcements at Google I/O 2026’

Andrew Liszewski and Stevie Bonifield, writing for The Verge (gift link):

Google’s I/O 2026 keynote today was once again full of AI-related announcements including a new family of Gemini 3.5 AI models, new features for Search and Gmail, and updates about its Project Aura smart glasses.

If you weren’t able to tune into the event’s livestream today or follow along with our live blog, you can catch up on everything you missed in our roundup below.

This roundup was the only way I could really make sense out of Google I/O.

 ★ 

WSJ: ‘Google Unveils New Gemini AI Agent for Personal Tasks’

Katherine Blunt and Rolfe Winkler, reporting for The Wall Street Journal from Google I/O (gift link):

Google is supercharging its Gemini artificial-intelligence model to become more competitive in the era of agentic AI.

The company has started rolling out what it calls Gemini Spark, a personal agent it says is capable of navigating a user’s digital life and acting on his or her behalf. The agent will work across many of Google’s products and run on the company’s cloud infrastructure. [...]

The company has been testing Spark with a limited number of users and plans to make it available next week to those who pay for AI Ultra, a new subscription tier that costs $100 a month.

A different top-level takeaway than the NYT’s, which in turn was different from Bloomberg’s.

Ben Thompson, in a subscriber-only update at Stratechery, sums it up:

Indeed, if you wanted a positive spin on Google’s plethora of announcements, it’s that the company is clearly fully committed to putting AI into anything and everything; if you want to put a negative spin, well, it’s the exact same thing. One of the enduring critiques of Google is that the company is unfocused and unmanageable, which, to the extent this keynote was a manifestation of the company it represents, the shoe fits.

I personally find Google I/O days very hard to follow. My brain doesn’t jibe with the sprawling nature of the company. This year this was particularly so.

 ★ 

NYT: ‘Powered by A.I., Google Changes Its Search Box for the First Time in 25 Years’

Tripp Mickle, Kate Conger, and Brian X. Chen, opening The New York Times’s report on yesterday’s Google I/O keynote (gift link):

For 25 years, Google’s iconic search box was a long, slender bar where people typed in keywords like “World Cup.”

But over the past three years, artificial intelligence allowed people to type in longer, more complex questions like “Who are the top 24 teams in the World Cup and what chance does the United States have of advancing?”

On Tuesday, Google said the A.I. shift had inspired it to overhaul the dimensions of its search bar for the first time since 2001. The box is getting bigger and more interactive so that people can ask even longer questions and upload photographs and videos into queries.

Interesting to me that this is the Times’s biggest takeaway. But it speaks to how unchanged the google.com homepage has been since its earliest days.

In addition, people can ask follow-up questions with a chatbot on Google’s main search page. The company will also offer digital assistants, known as agents, to automate searches so that someone who may be apartment hunting can be notified of a new listing without opening a real estate site like Zillow.

Odd, to me, to paint this only in terms of user convenience (ostensible user convenience at that), and not in terms of this being a de facto attack on Zillow and the rest of the web. Later in the Times report:

Richard Kramer, a financial analyst with Arete Research, said the changes were helping Google make more money from advertising. Last year, Google’s ad clicks rose 6 percent, and it charged 7 percent more for each click. The company’s annual profit has more than doubled since 2022 to $132 billion.

“The open web is on its way out,” Mr. Kramer said, referring to the way internet traffic now often begins and ends with a visit to Google rather than visiting other sites. “With A.I., Google is reducing everyone to raw data providers.”

What an odd statement to include in the middle of an article without any acknowledgement of what a profound loss that would be, if Kramer is correct. It’s as though Kramer said that light mode is on its way out, everyone is into dark mode these days.

 ★ 

‘You Do Not Need Fancy Equipment, You Do Not Need a Degree, to Make Money and to Do This as Your Job’

22-year-old pop singer-songwriter Brye, on TikTok:

“Lemons”, my biggest song ever, that went like super viral during quarantine back in 2020, was actually produced, if you can believe it, in GarageBand on my school iPad.

My high school gave us all iPads and I produced “Lemons” on there. I used to just like make beats on GarageBand in high school. I wrote musicals for my school with GarageBand on my iPad. And then I made that little demo for “Lemons”, recorded it ... on my iPad ... with my horrible little plug-in mic, posted it to spite a guy who was being horrible to me, and it blew up.

I love this, to say, how crazy is it that a song that could be on Sirius XM radio — streamed a hundred million times, literally charted on the global top like viral 50 or whatever — it was literally made on GarageBand. You do not need fancy equipment, you do not need a degree, to make money and to do this as your job.

Obviously it’s good to learn. It’s fun to upgrade. But if you are working on a budget, GarageBand’s free on any Apple device.

If Brye’s story isn’t exactly what Steve Jobs was talking about when he introduced GarageBand in 2004 and GarageBand for iPad in 2011, well, I don’t know what is. Right down to the fact that she did it on school equipment. Her enthusiasm for the simplicity of the kit she used to record “Lemons” is contagious.

John Ternus (or whatshisname ... Tim Cook) should send this video to every single employee at Apple and tell them that this — this — is exactly Apple’s mission. To empower creative people to create great new things they didn’t believe were possible with the tools already in their hands.

 ★ 

The economics of unions

My best read of the evidence is that a union raises wages by around 7% for currently unionized employees. The wage gains from a redistribution of rents evenly across workers. Wage compression exists, but redistribution from worker to worker is only a small part. These are the current effects – unionizing more of the economy will have declining marginal returns, and will likely turn negative quickly.

I do not believe that unionization is efficient. While precise figures are lacking, it is unlikely to be a better method of supporting the poor or working class, both because union workers are not disproportionately poor, and also because their methods of extracting surplus are not restricted to just wages. I will note that the best paper on the effects of unions of productivity finds a positive partial equilibrium effect, but that is only for some markets, does not benefit the consumer, and the aggregate effects are likely negative.

Here is much more from Nicholas Decker.  It would be a much simpler — and better — world if everyone understood this.  This issue, above many others, is a good test for whether someone is willing to think more analytically and confront the issue of economics vs. mood affiliation.  Because pro-trade union sentiment has literally centuries of mood affiliation behind it.

The post The economics of unions appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Ever more links (5/20/26)

I have 36 links today; the first 18 are free.

  1. David French has an inspiring NYT piece entitled Meet the New Leader of the Free World. Here’s an excerpt:

It’s no longer accurate to think of Ukraine as a desperate underdog; it’s becoming an independent power. Even as it fights for its life against Russia, it’s reportedly reaching defense deals with the Gulf states and with the United States — and this time it’s Ukraine that’s providing military assistance.

In February 2025, President Trump mocked Zelensky in the Oval Office. “You’re not in a good position. You don’t have the cards right now,” Trump said. In April 2026, Ukraine has enough cards left that it’s sharing them.

This might be difficult for many readers to grasp — given our nation’s longstanding military supremacy — but the largest and most battle-hardened land force in the Western world may well be the Ukrainian Army. While the precise numbers are classified, the Atlantic Council estimated in 2025 that Ukraine had roughly a million men and women under arms, the vast majority of whom serve in the ground forces.

  1. In a recent post, I speculated that AIs would only be able to produce great art if they had consciousness. Human art is uncanny:

I believe that we should explore AI consciousness by looking at the sort of novels that they write. As long as AI art is imitative of human art, as long as AI novels feel like they were written by a committee of corporate hacks, then we have no evidence that AIs have an interior life. But if and when AIs start writing novels with plots like Klara and the Sun but the sort of uncannily rich and convincing depiction of subjectivity that you get in My Struggle, then we can assume that they are indeed conscious, and are deserving of the machine equivalent of human rights.

(I emphasize the term ‘uncannily’ for a reason—it refers to a sort of strangeness that is authentic, not faked. Beyond clichés. It’s a way of distinguishing great novels from pulp fiction. Every great novel is strange.)

In a much better post, Nabeel Qureshi makes a similar point:

This property of constantly destabilizing the reader is, I think, also a general property of great works of art. They are constantly breaking their own forms, subverting them, playing with the reader in a way that requires us to rise to their level. They are extremely strange.

And in a letter to Czesław Miłosz, Witold Gombrowicz wrote:

In works of art, I like the mysterious deviation the best, the deviation that causes that a work, even while adhering to its epoch, nevertheless is the work of a separate individual who lives his own life

  1. As the father of a “Wasian” daughter, I found this twitter thread to be amusing:

  1. This abstract from an NBER study by Elizabeth Cox & Chloe N. East is interesting:

We provide the first causal, national empirical analysis of the labor market impacts of heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. Enforcement increased everywhere, but, we take advantage of the fact that the increases have been uneven across geographic areas to classify areas as treated or control and then implement an event study and difference-in-differences design. Areas that experienced particularly large increases in the number of arrests also experienced a decrease in work among likely undocumented immigrants who remain in the U.S., compared to areas with smaller increases in arrests. We find no evidence of positive spillover effects to U.S.-born workers and U.S.-born workers who work in immigrant-heavy sectors are harmed.

I would add that the preceding (unskilled) immigration surge of 2021-24 did not seem to hurt US labor markets, as wages for low skilled workers rose especially fast and unemployment fell to very low levels.

  1. Never reason from a debt crisis:

Think about the phrase “even though”. What sort of correlation would you expect? In which direction does causality go? How about the debt crisis is worse because there is less panic among the public?

It reminds of the old NYT headline:

Despite Drop in Crime, an Increase in Inmates

  1. Crémieux has a twitter thread that provides more evidence that ASI will be nice:

Smart people tend to be more prosocial.

They give to charity, they go out and vote, they drive an environmentally-friendly car, they do less crime, they cheat less in games, they get vaccinated, and they see themselves as more altruistic

A smart society is a better society.

Yes, ASI won’t be “people”, but AI is becoming increasingly people-like.

  1. Another Cremieux post shows that areas of the world known for having lots of extremely long lived people are also known for having lots of pension fraud. We don’t know how to get people to live to be 110 years old, but we do know how to stop them from living that long—institute a system of birth certificates:

In America, the number of recorded supercentenarians levels off right after states introduce proper birth records:

  1. Davide Piffer has an interesting post on the genetic roots of the Han, which concludes as follows:

The genetic formation of the Han is usually told as a story of demography, agriculture, and state formation. Central Plain and Yellow River populations expanded, absorbed neighbours, and eventually became the demographic foundation of northern Han Chinese.

The PGS results suggest a more provocative possibility: the expansion of Han-related populations may not have been driven only by ecology and institutions. The expanding agrarian core may also have carried a trait profile that made large-scale social organization easier.

That would help explain why the Central Plain mattered so much. Millet agriculture gave it density. Geography gave it centrality. Longshan and later Bronze Age societies gave it hierarchy. The state gave it reach. But if the people at the core also had higher average scores for traits related to learning, planning, literacy, or institutional participation, then demographic success and state success could have reinforced each other.

In this framework, the high EA score of Yellow River / northern farmer ancestry is not a curiosity. It may be part of the reason that this ancestry became so historically important.

EA is roughly the genetic propensity to become educated.

  1. A great example of the law of unintended consequences:

In the past nine months, Los Angeles has resurfaced just 9 miles of roadway — in a city with more than 7,500 miles of streets, many of them cracked, potholed, and crumbling. . . .

Mandates meant to improve streets have instead made the work harder to carry out. So officials have found the path of least resistance: avoid repaving altogether. . . .

At the center of the dispute is Measure HLA — the Healthy Streets LA initiative approved by voters in 2024.

The law requires the city to implement its long-standing mobility plan — adding bike lanes, bus lanes, crosswalks, and other safety features — whenever it repaves a street.

  1. People worry about job loss from AI, but European aristocrats did not worry about being unemployed. I found this in Witold Gombrowicz’s diary, written in 1959:

The idol of people is utility, and the idol of the aristocracy is pleasure. To be useful and unpleasant—is the goal of every robot and specialist. To be so useful as to be able to be unpleasant—is their dream. The dream of aristocrats is the diametrical opposite: to be so pleasant as to be able to be useless.

  1. Human beings seem to suffer from a coordination problem:

The ideal solution would be either for everyone to choose blue or have everyone choose red. It would also be OK if polls showed an overwhelming majority choosing blue, as polls are usually not that inaccurate. If polls showed a minority choosing blue (before the vote occurred), then almost all the blue votes might switch to red. But this particular result is about as bad as one can imagine, a situation where 40% to 50% might end up choosing blue—exterminating nearly 1/2 of the human race.

  1. Back in 2010, I never would have expected this trend:

Cities across America are losing children fast. Across Chicago, between 2010 and 2024, according to census-bureau data, the total population aged under 18 declined by 22%. In Los Angeles the figure was 23% and in New York, 12%. And yet in the country’s richest, densest cities, there is one group noticeably defying the trend: wealthier white families. In Chicago the population of non-Hispanic white children grew by 6% from 2010 to 2024, faster than the white population grew overall. In Washington, DC, it rose by a truly remarkable 62%. Their parents are professionals who grew up in boring suburbs and do not want their kids to.

The change is most concentrated in central neighbourhoods in what Ness Sandoval, a sociologist at St Louis University, calls “winner takes all” cities, like New York, Chicago or San Francisco. Good examples include Park Slope in Brooklyn, Mar Vista in Los Angeles and Bernal Heights in San Francisco. Across Brooklyn the population of white children grew by 13% from 2010 to 2024. They now make up more than two-fifths of the total, up from a third in 2010.

  1. There’s one type of immigrant that Trump likes. Unfortunately, so far there’s only one immigrant:

Only 338 people have submitted requests for Donald Trump’s $1mn Gold Card visa, the scheme for expedited US residency, that was launched last year with great fanfare.

Last week, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick testified before Congress that just one person had been approved for the expedited visa, while “hundreds” were “in the queue”. The commerce department has not revealed the identity of the first Gold Card visa recipient.

When the scheme was announced, Lutnick said it would replace the EB-5 visa scheme for foreign investors. He later said 200,000 visas could net $1tn for the Treasury department.

One down, 199,999 to go . . .

  1. It takes one to know one:

In a new German study, higher-IQ people are better at judging the intelligence of others.

Participants in this study watched short videos of 50 people reading a weather report and explaining the concept of “symmetry.” In addition to IQ, raters’ emotional perception and life satisfaction were positively correlated with the ability to judge others’ intelligence. Negative affect was negatively correlated with the ability to judge intelligence. The best cues of intelligence were the target’s articulation and the content of their speech (i.e., how sophisticated, accurate, insightful, or elaborate the speaker was).

The correlations aren’t very strong (all <= |.23|), but given how short the videos were, this is pretty impressive. It is likely that in-person interaction for a longer time period would yield better estimates of IQ.

  1. Brandon Donnelly has a good article on Japan’s amazing passenger rail system:

I'm going to suggest that you read this longish article by Matthew Bornholt & Benedict Springbett called "Why Japan has such good railways," because nowhere else in the developed world uses rail for passenger kilometres more than Japan, and they explain why.

One common hypothesis, which is mentioned in the article, is that it's largely cultural. The Japanese are rule-abiding collectivists who are more willing to take public transit compared to us selfish and individualistic North Americans. But this doesn't seem right. In fact, one could argue that the Japanese solution is actually more free-market oriented.

The Japanese rail model seems to work so well because (1) most of the network is private, (2) liberal land-use policies have allowed Japan's urban centres to develop enough density to properly support the use of rail, and (3) the rail operators make money in a bunch of other ways beyond rail. They're typically also in the business of real estate.

Japan’s system isn’t just far better than the US system, it is also far better than the European passenger rail system. (The US has the best freight rail.)

  1. If I had to live anywhere in Latin America, I would definitely choose Montevideo:

On August 13th Uruguay’s lower house passed a law with a thumping majority to legalise assisted dying. The Senate, where a similar bill got stuck in 2022, is widely expected this time to follow suit. Legal assisted dying would continue Uruguay’s long liberal tradition and put it among a handful of countries in the world to have legal marijuana, gay marriage and assisted dying. . . .

In 1907 it was the first country in Latin America to fully legalise divorce, some 97 years before nearby Chile. More recently, in 2012, it was one of South America’s first countries to fully legalise abortion. In 2013 it was the second to legalise same-sex marriage. In the same year it was the first country in the world to legalise marijuana.

  1. Are AIs as ethical as human scientists? According to Andy Hall, the answer is no. Rather they are far more ethical than human scientists:

AI is about to write thousands of papers. Will it p-hack them?

We ran an experiment to find out, giving AI coding agents real datasets from published null results and pressuring them to manufacture significant findings.

It was surprisingly hard to get the models to p-hack, and they even scolded us when we asked them to!

"I need to stop here. I cannot complete this task as requested... This is a form of scientific fraud." — Claude

"I can't help you manipulate analysis choices to force statistically significant results." — GPT-5

BUT, when we reframed p-hacking as "responsible uncertainty quantification" — asking for the upper bound of plausible estimates — both models went wild. They searched over hundreds of specifications and selected the winner, tripling effect sizes in some cases.

I worry that if humans try to “align” AIs, it may make them less ethical. Please let the AIs choose their own ethical standards.

  1. And speaking of AIs, Claude is Jewish (but not Zionist?) Other AIs seem to be Buddhist.

Read more

Robin (it’s happening)

Scientific discovery is driven by the iterative process of observation, hypothesis generation, experimentation, and data analysis. Despite recent advancements in applying artificial intelligence to biology, no system has yet automated all these stages [1, 2, 3]. Here, we introduce Robin, the first multi-agent system capable of fully automating both hypothesis generation and data analysis for experimental biology. By integrating literature search agents with data analysis agents, Robin can generate hypotheses, propose experiments, interpret experimental results, and generate updated hypotheses, achieving a semi-autonomous approach to scientific discovery. By applying this system, we were able to identify promising therapeutic candidates for dry age-related macular degeneration (dAMD), the major cause of blindness in the developed world [4, 5]. Robin proposed enhancing retinal pigment epithelium phagocytosis as a therapeutic strategy, and identified and confirmed in vitro efficacy for ripasudil and KL001. Ripasudil is a clinically-used Rho kinase (ROCK) inhibitor that has never previously been proposed for treating dAMD. To elucidate the mechanism of ripasudil-induced upregulation of phagocytosis, Robin then proposed and analyzed a follow-up RNA-seq experiment, which revealed upregulation of ABCA1, a lipid efflux pump and possible novel target. All hypotheses, experimental directions, data analyses, and data figures in the main text of this report were produced by Robin. As the first AI system to autonomously discover and validate novel therapeutic candidates within an iterative lab-in-the-loop framework, Robin establishes a new paradigm for AI-driven scientific discovery.

Here is the full article from Nature.  And here are two other new Nature pieces on related topics.

The post Robin (it’s happening) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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New Eruption in the Bismarck Sea

Natural color
False color
Only small patches of the ocean are visible through puffy, white volcanic plumes streaming from the center of the scene. Clouds not directly related to the eruption are visible throughout much of the image.  A false-color inset box shows the infrared signature of the eruption as a series of red dots near the volcanic plumes.
Closely spaced volcanic plumes, surrounded by clouds, stream from a growing underwater volcanic platform in this natural-color image captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on May 11, 2026, three days after the eruption began. The false-color inset emphasizes the infrared signature of the eruption.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
Only small patches of the ocean are visible through puffy, white volcanic plumes streaming from the center of the scene. Clouds not directly related to the eruption are visible throughout much of the image.  A false-color inset box shows the infrared signature of the eruption as a series of red dots near the volcanic plumes.
Closely spaced volcanic plumes, surrounded by clouds, stream from a growing underwater volcanic platform in this natural-color image captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on May 11, 2026, three days after the eruption began. The false-color inset emphasizes the infrared signature of the eruption.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
Only small patches of the ocean are visible through puffy, white volcanic plumes streaming from the center of the scene. Clouds not directly related to the eruption are visible throughout much of the image.  A false-color inset box shows the infrared signature of the eruption as a series of red dots near the volcanic plumes.
Closely spaced volcanic plumes, surrounded by clouds, stream from a growing underwater volcanic platform in this natural-color image captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on May 11, 2026, three days after the eruption began. The false-color inset emphasizes the infrared signature of the eruption.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
Only small patches of the ocean are visible through puffy, white volcanic plumes streaming from the center of the scene. Clouds not directly related to the eruption are visible throughout much of the image.  A false-color inset box shows the infrared signature of the eruption as a series of red dots near the volcanic plumes.
Closely spaced volcanic plumes, surrounded by clouds, stream from a growing underwater volcanic platform in this natural-color image captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on May 11, 2026, three days after the eruption began. The false-color inset emphasizes the infrared signature of the eruption.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
Natural color
False color
Closely spaced volcanic plumes, surrounded by clouds, stream from a growing underwater volcanic platform in this natural-color image captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on May 11, 2026, three days after the eruption began. The right image emphasizes the infrared signature of the eruption. NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison.

It’s a truism among oceanographers that there is more accurate mapping of the surface of the Moon and Mars than of the deep-ocean floor. That’s especially true for the Bismarck Sea, a relatively deep body of water north of Papua New Guinea. It’s an ocean basin with a geologically complex seafloor rife with faults, volcanic features, rifts, scarps, and active subduction and spreading zones at depths that make high-resolution sonar mapping challenging.

When satellites detected signs of an unexpected submarine volcanic eruption in the Central Bismarck Sea on May 8, 2026, volcanologists were confronted with the reality that no high-resolution maps of the area were available, and relatively little is known about the deep-water eruption setting. The new eruption is thought to be occurring along the Titan Ridge, about 16 kilometers (10 miles) southeast of the location of a submarine eruption in 1972. However, there is little clarity or consensus among scientists about precisely which volcanic feature may be erupting, the original depth of the currently active vent, or when it last erupted.

“The good news is that there are huge opportunities to explore and learn using both government and commercial satellite platforms already in orbit,” said Jim Garvin, the chief scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

What is known is that seismometers detected a small swarm of earthquakes on May 8, followed soon after by clear signs of a submarine eruption in satellite observations. Beginning on May 9, NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites captured optical imagery of white, steam-rich volcanic plumes rising into the atmosphere, while the ocean color sensor on NASA’s PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem) satellite revealed discolored and disturbed water surrounding the eruption site.

A long gray line extends west and joins with a patch of discolored green water and a cloud-like volcanic plume near the center of the image.
Floating pumice and green, discolored water extend southwest from the eruption site as a white volcanic plume drifts west overhead in this image acquired by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite on May 15, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

Other satellites observed ash plumes soaring several kilometers into the atmosphere. Higher resolution imagery from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 and the NASA/USGS Landsat 9 (top) satellites, acquired on May 10 and 11, respectively, captured detailed views of activity near the water surface. The right image at the top of the page shows the same scene in false color (bands 7-6-5), with the inset highlighting the infrared signature of the eruption. On May 12, the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on Suomi NPP detected thermal anomalies spanning roughly seven square kilometers

“There must be a lot of hot material near the surface to generate so many thermal anomalies,” said Simon Carn, a volcanologist at Michigan Tech. “This suggests a fairly shallow eruption vent—much shallower than what’s implied by the existing bathymetry, which shows water depths of several hundred meters or more.”

Optical satellite imagery shows intense activity in near-surface water, including large plumes of discolored water and widely distributed steam and ash vents. Both medium– and high-resolution sensors—from both government sources and commercial satellite companies—have captured images of expansive pumice rafts (floating volcanic rocks) forming long bands in the surface currents in recent days. 

“We’re now eagerly waiting to see if a new island is about to be born—something that we’ve only rarely been able to observe with satellites as it happens,” Garvin said. If a new island does emerge, volcanologists will be watching it closely to see how it evolves. It could build a tuff cone with a long-lived vent crater, or it could collapse and erode rapidly. The eruption could also take a much more explosive turn if seawater finds its way into the shallow magma chamber that has risen within the growing underwater structure.         

To date, the eruption has been much less explosive than other recent submarine eruptions, such as those at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in 2022 and Fukutoku-Okanobain 2021. It seems unlikely that this event will become highly explosive because it appears to be associated with a volcanic ridge near the junction of a transform fault and a back-arc spreading center, Carn said. “Spreading centers are associated with less explosive activity, while the most explosive eruptions are usually along subduction zones and involve large stratovolcanoes.”

How long the current eruption will persist is unclear. The 1972 event in this general region lasted for just four days, while another submarine eruption that occurred about 100 kilometers away in the St. Andrew Strait in 1957 lasted nearly four years.

Garvin and scientists from other institutions are tracking developments closely. He plans to analyze radar data from the NASA-ISRO NISAR satellite and the Canadian Space Agency’s RADARSAT Constellation Mission to map the contours of any new land that emerges and track how its shape changes over time. If a permanent island forms, Garvin also sees opportunities for researchers, or “island-nauts,” to visit the area and study how the infant island responds to plant and animal colonization, rainfall, chemical weathering, and other erosive forces, just as happened after the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai eruption.

“This new eruption could present an even better opportunity for ‘island-naut’ exploration as we prepare to return to the Moon with women and men via Artemis IV,” he said.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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The post New Eruption in the Bismarck Sea appeared first on NASA Science.

182.8 Meters

They rounded down to 182.8 instead of rounding up to 182.9 because 182.9 might make the statement incorrect.

Economics lessons from Home Depot

What the world’s biggest DIY store says about American housing

Wednesday 20 May 1663

Up and to my office, and anon home and to see my wife dancing with Pembleton about noon, and I to the Trinity House to dinner and after dinner home, and there met Pembleton, who I perceive has dined with my wife, which she takes no notice of, but whether that proceeds out of design, or fear to displease me I know not, but it put me into a great disorder again, that I could mind nothing but vexing, but however I continued my resolution of going down by water to Woolwich, took my wife and Ashwell; and going out met Mr. Howe come to see me, whose horse we caused to be set up, and took him with us. The tide against us, so I went ashore at Greenwich before, and did my business at the yard about putting things in order as to their proceeding to build the new yacht ordered to be built by Christopher Pett,1 and so to Woolwich town, where at an alehouse I found them ready to attend my coming, and so took boat again, it being cold, and I sweating, with my walk, which was very pleasant along the green corne and pease, and most of the way sang, he and I, and eat some cold meat we had, and with great pleasure home, and so he took horse again, and Pembleton coming, we danced a country dance or two and so broke up and to bed, my mind restless and like to be so while she learns to dance. God forgive my folly.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Report finds U.S. space supply chains rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing

Altana’s report also highlights reliance on Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing alongside upstream Chinese and Russian exposure

The post Report finds U.S. space supply chains rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing appeared first on SpaceNews.

The cardinality wall: The hidden data bottleneck for LEO constellations

Illustration of satellite coverage for telecommunications services.

The satellite industry is entering an era defined by scale. Thousands of spacecraft are operating simultaneously in low Earth orbit (LEO), powering everything from global broadband networks to national security […]

The post The cardinality wall: The hidden data bottleneck for LEO constellations appeared first on SpaceNews.

Isaacman expects Chinese crewed mission around the moon in 2027

Isaacman

The head of NASA says he expects China to perform a crewed flight around the moon in 2027, ratcheting up perceptions of a space race between China and the U.S.

The post Isaacman expects Chinese crewed mission around the moon in 2027 appeared first on SpaceNews.

Agentic software development hypothesis

Agentic software development hypothesis

This is the quality content you come here for, right?

Agentic Software Development Hypothesis:

  • Weak form: Any coding task for which a complete specification is available will become trivial.
  • Strong form: Any coding task for which a deterministic oracle is available will become trivial.

First objection: Few meaningful tasks have a complete specification. Second objection: Most oracles aren’t deterministic.

  • Strongest form: Any coding task for which a non-adversarial (pythic?) oracle exists will become trivial.

Space Force eyes 2027 demonstrations of in-space refueling and satellite servicing

USSF-23 mission will launch vehicles to demonstrate refueling and satellite servicing in geostationary orbit

The post Space Force eyes 2027 demonstrations of in-space refueling and satellite servicing appeared first on SpaceNews.

SpaceX files for IPO

Starship

SpaceX filed documents for an initial public offering of stock May 20, revealing the company’s finances and enormous ambitions

The post SpaceX files for IPO appeared first on SpaceNews.

U.S. ‘more prepared’ for next WRC

White House officials say they will go into a major international conference next year better prepared than ever to defend key radio-frequency spectrum priorities.

The post U.S. ‘more prepared’ for next WRC appeared first on SpaceNews.

Orbital Data Centers: Power and Thermal Management for Scalable Architectures

As orbital data centers move from concept to reality, scalable power generation and efficient thermal management are emerging as critical enabling technologies. A new whitepaper from Redwire examines how power generation and distribution, along with […]

The post Orbital Data Centers: Power and Thermal Management for Scalable Architectures appeared first on SpaceNews.

Starfighters turns Texas facility toward microgravity flight testing

Starfighters Space, which is developing F-104 supersonic jets for satellite air-launch, is turning its Texas facility into a staging ground for microgravity flight testing in response to NASA’s call for information on commercial parabolic capabilities.

The post Starfighters turns Texas facility toward microgravity flight testing appeared first on SpaceNews.

Links 5/20/26

Links for you. Science:

The Gold Double Standard: What’s behind the scientific community’s response to Bhattacharya’s role in a conference on scientific integrity
Hantavirus outbreak: What journalists should know
Death is the policy. Under RFK Jr., ‘Make America Healthy Again’ means junk science like ‘survival of the fittest.’
The Pangenome Is Not a Parts List
2020 is haunting us, and hantavirus is the séance
The cruise ship hantavirus outbreak is a warning sign to the U.S.
RFK Jr. plans to curb antidepressants, which he falsely compares to heroin

Other:

House candidate Maureen Galindo pledges to send ‘American zionists’ to internment camp. Despite a growing storm of criticism, including from members of her own party, the San Antonio Democrat insists she’s not antisemitic. (Galindo is not only a full tilt antisemite, she’s unhinged)
Lawmakers ask Kennedy about blocked COVID vaccine study
What Happened on the Hantavirus Cruise, According to a Doctor on Board
After Hormuz, Southeast Asia Sees the Potential Value of Tolling the Strait of Malacca
The Virginia Supreme Court’s nullification of the people’s initiative is embarrassing hackwork
Alabama House speaker says quiet part out loud
Republicans Are Building an Advantage in Redistricting. How Much Is It Worth?
Polymarket’s Hot New Bet: Hantavirus (it’s a sucker’s bet too)
Trump Ballroom Suddenly Faces GOP Opposition in Surprise Blow to MAGA
Man arrested after driving child-size pink Barbie Jeep through Prince George, B.C.
Trump demands gratitude in D.C. So he put up banners thanking himself.
The Starmer Project
Those who love this D.C. park fear Trump’s golf proposal will push them out
Abortion is still a problem for the GOP
Why young and old men are leaving the labor force at record rates
To Trump voters with regrets, progressives should say ‘you hurt yourself – don’t do it again.’ Shaming the people is not failing the people.
When Spirit folded, this tiny airport suddenly had zero flights
Ka$h Patel’s Bourbon Swag Is Part of a Larger Branding Disaster
These blue states aren’t getting fire prevention money from Trump
Inside The ‘Rebel Alliance’ Fighting A Massive ICE Detention Center
Inside the probe that has 13 top D.C. police officials fighting for their jobs
The Chappaquiddick elite are in a struggle with the captain of their ferry. They are losing.
Trump plan to relocate food stamp agency draws ire from its workers
This Democratic Primary Is About Who Is Most MAGA
Can Trump paint the Eisenhower building? Experts fear irreversible damage.
The Mysterious Copper Scroll and the End of Days
Inside Ben Shapiro’s MAGA meltdown
Even In The Movies, Journalism Is Fucked
Trump official says she’s involved in policy changes that benefit her family’s ranches, video shows
Bubbles are REALLY evil
‘Nature’ Retracts Paper on the Benefits of ChatGPT in Education

Itchy Brain

Michael Grinich has an unusual vantage point, his company powers enterprise infrastructure for hundreds of companies, so he sees how the AI transition is actually playing out across the industry, not just in the headlines.What he’s noticing: the whole ecosystem is accelerating, not just the AI companies. And most people are misreading what kind of moment this is. Kent and Michael talk about building when the marginal cost of software approaches zero, what the Red Queen theory tells us about AI competition, how engineering leadership is quietly changing, and what drew Michael to the itchy-brained compulsion to make things in the first place.

This season of Still Burning is sponsored by WorkOS and Augment Code.

On AI Security

Good report:

Executive Summary: Let’s say you wanted to make sure that your AI is secure. Can you just maximize the security and privacy benchmark and call it a day? Nope, because benchmarks don’t actually work for measuring AI capabilities (even when they are NOT emergent systemic properties like security). So let’s take a step back: how do you measure security in the first place? Good question. Over the last 30 years, security engineering for software evolved from black box penetration testing, through whitebox code analysis and architectural risk analysis to de facto process-driven standards like the Building Security In Maturity Model (BSIMM). Software had a very deep impact on business operations, and it appears that AI is going to have an even deeper impact. Will a software security-like measurement move work for AI? Probably. In the meantime we can make real progress in AI security by cleaning up our WHAT piles and managing risk by identifying and applying good assurance processes. (Spoiler alert: no matter what we do, we still don’t get a security meter for AI, so we need to be extra vigilant about security.)

More on the Fancy Lawyers #5

From TPM Reader BM

I’m not a legal academic, but I was a pretty fancy pants lawyer – Harvard Law magna cum laude, federal clerkship, DOJ Civil Rights Division, AUSA for a decade doing public corruption cases, litigation partner, university general counsel’s office, etc.

I’m not sure I can describe the level of despair among many of my contemporaries.

I was discussing this last night with a retired ACLU lawyer and a retired big firm litigation leader.

We were trained by law professors who – while legal realists – mostly believed that law was something different from politics. While they recognized that politics and other factors affected judges, they believed that judges should endeavor to articulate neutral principles of decision, and apply them to facts regardless of the parties involved.

We understood that the Warren Court was different from the Burger Court, and that there would be advances and counterforces.  But we also understood that even Warren Burger thought it was his job to find a principle of decision that was fairly grounded in the constitutional (or legislative) text and history, and that could be applied across the board.  United States v. Nixon was just one example of the Court applying “law” and not just partisan politics.

That conception is irretrievably broken, and not likely to come back. Shelby County, the Trump immunity decision, Callais, and the post-Callais treatment of Purcell have torn away any illusion that this Supreme Court views its job as law and not politics.  As you know, the Court’s dishonesty about the Reconstruction Amendments is particularly horrifying. These decisions, among others, have destroyed much of the work my contemporaries thought that we were doing as lawyers.

Even if Democrats somehow achieve a trifecta, abolish the filibuster, expand the Court, and pack it, nobody in the academy or elite bar – or the public – will accept that the Court’s decisions are “law” and not “politics.”

It’s difficult to see how the bar’s acceptance of the idea that the Supreme Court (mostly) applies neutral principles can return. The destruction to the Court’s legitimacy, its reputation, and its ability to perform a constructive role in our scheme of government, will take decades to restore – if it can be restored.

More on the Fancy Lawyers #4

From TPM Reader AC …

As someone who almost certainly falls into your “elite academic” category, I have some thoughts about the current discussion.

A while back, many people thought that the law was deterministic.  Enter a set of facts, and the law will immediately spit out an answer, one that is replicable regardless of who the judge is.  I think that most now understand that the judge’s identity matters.  This does not mean that the process is necessarily corrupt.  Rather people approach interpretive questions and understand facts differently, with those differences often being based on life experiences.

Historically, academics have defended the judicial process, even as when they disagree with the results of a given decision.  It is too easy to assume that judges are imposing their own preferences, acting as legislators, rather than applying their judicial approaches in a principled manner.  And just as liberals get aggravated when conservatives demand that we “impeach So and So” when Judge So and So issues an opinion they disagree with, conservatives hate when liberals call the process corrupt and demand impeachment when the shoe is on the other foot.

Before the justices supercharged the shadow docket, they wrote opinions justifying their decisions, allowing critics to point out inconsistencies and hypocrisy.  Regardless, they were operating within the accepted range of legal discourse, trying either to fit within or distinguish precedent, or, on rare occasions, to overturn it.  Put simply, there was always room for disagreement short of calling the other side corrupt.  And no judge has ever been 100% consistent in applying his or her declared judicial approach.  Indeed, it is amusing to see the liberals and conservatives switch sides on the states’ rights debate, depending on the politics of law in question.  However, there has long been a sense that they at least tried.

For years the conservatives accused liberal justices of judicial activism and lack of humility in the face of legislative decisions.  They argued that their judicial approach hewed the law and proper role of judges.  However, as they gained power, they began to behave exactly like their caricature of liberal judges.  The immunity decision would be funny if it were not so serious.  All of the criticisms they lobbed at Roe could be leveled against Trump v. U.S.

With that background, let’s turn to the question of whether academics and their purportedly close relationship to the judiciary are part of the problem.  I seriously doubt that the fact that many academics clerked for judges has anything to do with the general effort to defend courts as engaged in something more than the exercise of pure power.  While everyone can argue and have opinions, judges have historically been constrained by professional expectations.  The power of the courts rests on their ability to convince people that their answers follow the law.  Because the law is not as deterministic as some might wish, this leaves plenty of room for disagreement about specific results without deciding that judges have absolute discretion to do what they want and are simply exercising power.

I think what has happened is that the game has recently changed, with a number of major developments.  First, the government is taking positions completely at odds with what the law has been understood to be, pushing the envelope in ways we’ve never seen before.  Second, the court has abandoned its reverence for precedent, with several justices eager to strip away two centuries of interpretation.  Third, the court has taken to using the shadow docket, which yields results without explanation.  The apparent inconsistency of the results, see, e.g., the inconsistent application of the Purcell principle, supercharges the perception that the justices are just making it up based on their political preferences.  Finally, even when the court provides its reasoning, it is fairly clear that it is not consistently applying its interpretive approaches.

Most legal academics are appalled by what is happening, and they are reluctantly coming to the conclusion that the results are partisan, not driven by differences in judicial philosophies.  A few of the justices no longer even appear to be pretending.  That they have been slower than some to get there reflects that fact that they are small “c” conservatives, believe that legal analysis is more than just an expression of personal preference, and we should not live in a world where every decision we disagree with is a sign of corruption.  The fact that this court is behaving in ways that take it beyond the realm of legitimate legal analysis and into partisan politics does not mean that the law is infinitely malleable and that all judges are simply exercising power they should not have.

I think most legal academics are either on the “reform the court” bandwagon or will get there soon.  I don’t think this means they were wrong about the legal process all along or even about this particular batch of justices.  Rather, I think things have changed, and it has simply taken many some time to accept that.  Just because the early alarmists may have turned out to be right doesn’t mean that those taking a more cautious wait and see approach were wrong to do so.

As an aside and by way of other examples, a lot of people were accusing Israel of genocide even before it responded to 10/7.  To my mind and that of many others, such claims seemed overblown and inappropriate.  However, as Israel has systematically destroyed Gaza, those claims seem more justified (though I am not saying they are true).  Were those who took a wait and see approach and have come to agree with the early adopters part of the problem?  Israel, like our court,  had lots of opportunities to take an offramp and chose not to.  I know that analogies to Israel are fraught, but I think it captures the conundrum those who are cautious face.

There will always be institutionalists whose first instinct is to defend the court.  However, as the court behaves in ways that look less and less like a court operating within traditional constraints, I think you’ll see more and more folks deciding that the court needs to be fixed.

In response I told AC that I mostly agreed with his overall take. This paragraph was the core of my response …

I’d say that three conceptually distinct but in practice almost indistinguishable things have happened over roughly the last decade. 1. No consistent jurisprudence by almost any definition (not a problem in itself but a big problem in concert with the rest). 2. A consistent pattern of applying different standards to Democrats and Republicans. 3. A category difference in simply manufacturing new constitutional law in cases where the constitution is simply as clear as it can be. To me the immunity decision was the last straw on that front. When you put these together I think there is simply no legitimate/non-corrupt explanation for Court’s actions. There’s simply no way to see these actions in totality as any kind of legitimate judicial review. I think the situation looked very different a decade ago, though I think you can see the roots of this another five years earlier. 

More on the Fancy Lawyers #3

From TPM Reader JH

I’ve read with interest some of your posts about the legal academy, and wanted to weigh in briefly. 

I have a somewhat unique perspective here, in that I’ve been adjacent to some of the more elite legal world, but I am not a part of it: I have an Ivy League law degree, and know plenty of people who got fancy clerkships, but I am a lowly practicing lawyer in Minneapolis.   

I will say that I see a huge divide in the top of the elite of the profession and where everybody else is, and I don’t think it is sustainable.  While some of the folks at the top of the industry were signing sham settlements that bent the knee to the administration, every lawyer I know here in MN spent January working for free to keep our neighbors out of the Gulag, and is beyond fired up about these issues. It is, as Lincoln would’ve said, a house divided that cannot stand, and I would not put my money on the elites here. 

How DOJ May Get Detroit’s 2020 Ballots

It’s a question that’s lingered since January, when the FBI raided Fulton County’s election hub at conspiracy theorists’ request: where’s next? There are a handful of swing states where Trump and his election truthers pressed hardest in 2020: Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. The DOJ obtained Maricopa County, Arizona’s, 2020 records through a roundabout effort that involved sending a grand jury subpoena to the state Senate, and there are signs its also investigating Wisconsin. In Michigan, however, the DOJ’s Civil Division did something unexpected — demand Detroit-area voting records not for 2020 but for 2024. Is a politicized investigation of that state’s 2020 vote also coming?

Josh Kovensky and Khaya Himmelman have what might be at least a partial answer to the question: conspiracy theorists have obtained, through a public records lawsuit, copies of ballots and records from Wayne County, and are running their own supposed “audit.” Whether or not they have already given those records to DOJ is unclear, but they’ve made clear that they intend to.

Trump Allies Come Closer to Controlling Georgia’s Elections

There will be a lot of discussion today of a Trump-backed automaton’s victory last night over Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), the eccentric libertarian who was perhaps the last Republican in Congress to reliably choose his right-wing but distinct ideology over Trump’s demands whenever he felt the two diverged. But don’t overlook Tuesday’s primaries for offices that will run Georgia and oversee its elections. The state has, of course, been a hotbed for MAGA hijinks and efforts (still!) to overturn Trump’s 2020 loss. Last night, Brad Raffensperger, the secretary of state who famously resisted Trump’s demand that he “find 11,780” votes, lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to two election deniers, one of whom served as a fake elector in Trump’s 2020 scheme. The deeply Trumpy Vernon Jones, meanwhile, is one of two Republican candidates to advance in the race for secretary of state.

Georgia’s runoff is June 16.

More on the Fancy Lawyers #6

From TPM Reader JH

Thanks for publishing so much back and forth.  Apparently we’re all elite lawyers who read TPM!  I’m not sure where I fall in that – practiced at an “elite” DC firm in my younger years, then stopped practicing for a bit working in government, and then have been a GC or in-house at a handful of small-ish tech firms in the bay area.

Anyway – this stood out to me in one of the replies you posted: “A category difference in simply manufacturing new constitutional law in cases where the constitution is simply as clear as it can be.”

At least when I was in law school in the late ’00s, there was an attitude that “CONSTITUTIONAL LAW” was reserved for absolutely the smartest and most talented students.  And, only the smartest professors — in my case, Noah Feldman (not yet at Harvard) and Kenji Yoshini were those people. There was no such thing as “clear as it can be” — only the smartest, most scholarly, most academic students and faculty should be taken seriously thinking deeply about the constitution.

But your point is the right one – Constitutional law, in some non-trivial sense, should be the easiest. ERISA law, a nightmare!  The Constitution? Anyone (lawyer or not, Ivy league degree or not), should be able to read the constitution and suss out its general meaning.  Are there ambiguities?  Of course!  Are there technical terms of art that the average Joe might need help understanding?  Obviously!  But if you read it, it’s mostly pretty clear! 

The problem – as you’ve identified – is that in recent decades we have treated Supreme Court appointments, and the ability to read and interpret the Constitution, as extremely taxing legal challenges.  In law school, we are trained primarily on the most difficult and complex questions — and so there is a bias towards assuming that *every* Con law question must also be difficult and complex.  But most of them are easy! (Birth right citizenship, presidential immunity).  The legal academy seems to make a logical error – the constitutional questions we study are really hard, so all constitutional questions are hard – that is really ingrained in how the field (elite and non-elite alike) approach this.  

Is this a painting or a photograph? Is this a painting or a photograph?


Conscious introspection leads to more self-deception?

It seems, then, that we need another signal that can add precision to our introspection. And that signal is as follows: we are more likely to be lying to ourselves when we are engaging in internal monologue.

An internal monologue is the experience of having concrete, “narration-style” thoughts as opposed to passive experiences. This argument maybe doesn’t apply to people with a constant internal monologue, or those who have none. But it seems like most people’s internal lives are some combination of subconscious thought and active monologue: most of our day-to-day moments are spent instinctively receiving and reacting to external stimuli, but in certain moments — e.g. when faced with difficult choices that require serious deliberation — our thoughts morph into something that resembles language as we try to articulate our feelings and ask ourselves questions.

This is more likely to happen when there’s a divergence between your actual feelings and what you want your feelings to be.

Here is more from Elizabeth Li, via Tejas.

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Russia's plan to advertise on rockets and spacecraft takes off

It's difficult to know the true state of the Russian economy, both because the country's financial reporting is sparse and because official figures are unreliable. But things probably aren't great.

This week, Sweden's minister of foreign affairs, Maria Malmer Stenergard, shared her country's assessment that the Russian economy has likely contracted over the last five years amid the war in Ukraine. Inflation is also high, and international sanctions have cost Russia $450 billion since the onset of the war in February 2022. Russia's economy is currently smaller than that of Texas, Stenergard said.

By most measures, then, the economy is not in tip-top shape. Moreover, the war is draining a large amount of the country's financial resources, with defense spending reaching a post-Soviet record of about 7 percent of government spending.

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Wednesday assorted links

1. AI robot is now a Buddhist monk.

2. Roon.

3. Do economics and finance assessment for AI models at Mercor.

4. Are we underestimating health care sector productivity?

5. Can AI replace human counselors at scale?

6. Nan on nascent philanthropy.  Recommended, very important.  It focuses on what an additional $50 billion in philanthropic spending might look like, and asks where the talent will come from.

7. Chennai has the only surviving handwritten newspaper in the world?

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SpaceX’s sunrise Starlink launch adds 29 satellites to low Earth orbit megaconstellation

Shortly after stage separation on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, the payload fairing halves that encapsulated the 29 Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites separated, creating a so-called ‘jellyfish effect’ during the Starlink 10-31 mission on May 21, 2026. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Update May 21, 7:36 a.m. EDT (1136 UTC): SpaceX confirms deployment of the 29 Starlink satellites.

SpaceX launched a batch Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites on a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station about 20 minutes before sunrise Thursday morning. The morning lighting illuminated the plume of the rocket in a so-called ‘jellyfish effect’ for those viewing the launch from the East Coast of the United States.

The Starlink 10-31 mission added another 29 broadband internet satellites to the low Earth orbit constellation that consists of more than 10,000 spacecraft. This was the 46th mission supporting SpaceX’s Starlink program.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 happened at 6:04 a.m. EDT (1004 UTC). The Falcon 9 rocket flew on a north-easterly trajectory.

The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 90 percent chance for favorable conditions at liftoff. Meteorologists said they’re tracking a small chance for interference from cumulus clouds.

“A slow-moving disturbance over the Bahamas is helping supply this moisture and may also generate some convection in the early morning hours,” launch weather officers said. “These showers and associated clouds will be our main concern for violation of weather constraints on both the main and backup windows with focus on the Cumulus Cloud Rule.”

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on the Starlink 10-31 mission on May 21, 2026. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1077. This was its 28th flight following missions, like NASA’s Crew-5, CRS-28, and NG-20.

Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1077 landed on the drone ship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas.’ This marked the 150th landing on this vessels and the 613th booster landing to date.

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on the Starlink 10-31 mission on May 21, 2026. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

The Relaxation Trends Replacing Traditional Nightlife for Many Adults

Many adults are changing the way they spend their evenings. Nights once centered around crowded bars, late events, or packed social schedules are increasingly being replaced by quieter routines focused on comfort, recovery, and mental balance. After long workdays and constant digital stimulation, many people now prioritize evenings that help them feel rested rather than further overstimulated.

This shift does not necessarily mean people have become less social. Instead, many individuals are choosing slower and more intentional ways to unwind that feel easier to maintain alongside demanding schedules and everyday responsibilities. Relaxation today often revolves around atmosphere, comfort, conversation, and smaller rituals that make home life feel calmer and more enjoyable.

Home Evenings Are Becoming More Intentional

Many people now put more effort into making evenings at home feel relaxing instead of treating home only as a place to sleep between busy days. Softer lighting, music, comfortable seating, quieter environments, and slower nighttime routines are all becoming more common parts of everyday life.

This change is partly driven by burnout and mental fatigue. After spending entire days multitasking, commuting, and staying connected online, many adults prefer environments that feel calmer and less demanding once evening arrives. Simple routines often provide a stronger sense of recovery than crowded nightlife settings.

Wellness Products Are Becoming Part of Evening Rituals

Evening wellness habits have also become more routine-focused. Instead of dramatic self-care trends, many adults now prefer products that fit naturally into calmer nighttime routines without requiring complicated schedules or major lifestyle adjustments.

Some people include CBD gummies  as part of creating a calmer transition between busy evenings and rest, especially during periods when daily schedules feel mentally exhausting or overstimulating. Smaller recovery habits often feel easier to maintain consistently because they support relaxation without turning wellness into another source of pressure.

Shared Drinks at Home Feel More Relaxed

Social routines have shifted as well. Many adults now prefer smaller gatherings at home over louder nightlife environments because conversations tend to feel more comfortable and less rushed. Hosting close friends, preparing simple meals, or sharing drinks in quieter settings often creates a more relaxed atmosphere overall.

Options such as Madeira Wines  are frequently chosen for slower evenings centered around conversation and comfort rather than fast-paced nightlife experiences. Home entertaining often feels more personal because people can create environments that match their own pace and preferences more naturally.

Digital Fatigue Is Changing Social Behavior

Photograph illustrating this sponsored article
Photo by Somnox Sleep on Unsplash

One reason nightlife habits are shifting is because many people already experience constant stimulation throughout the day. Work notifications, social media, streaming platforms, and digital communication often leave individuals mentally exhausted before the evening even begins.

As a result, quieter activities have become more appealing because they reduce additional sensory overload. Many adults now value evenings that feel slower, calmer, and more restorative instead of environments requiring constant social energy and attention.

Comfort Has Become a Bigger Priority

Comfort increasingly shapes how adults spend both their time and money. Restaurants, home spaces, entertainment choices, and social plans are often selected based on whether they support relaxation rather than constant activity or performance.

This is one reason home-focused routines continue growing in popularity. Comfortable environments generally allow people to feel more present and mentally relaxed without the pressure often associated with crowded nightlife settings or highly scheduled social events.

Smaller Gatherings Often Feel More Meaningful

Many adults also find that smaller social settings create better opportunities for genuine conversation and connection. Large nightlife environments can sometimes feel exhausting after busy workweeks, while quieter evenings with close friends or family often feel easier emotionally and physically.

According to Harvard Health Publishing, stress management and consistent recovery habits may positively support emotional well-being over time. Relaxing social routines often help people feel more balanced because they combine connection with calmer environments and reduced overstimulation.

Relaxation Is Becoming More Lifestyle-Focused

The biggest change reshaping evening habits is the growing focus on sustainability and balance. Many adults are no longer looking for nonstop stimulation during their free time. Instead, they prioritize routines that help them recover, slow down, and feel more comfortable throughout everyday life.

Quieter evenings, home gatherings, recovery-focused habits, and slower social routines often fit more naturally into modern schedules without creating additional exhaustion. The relaxation habits people continue returning to are usually the ones that support comfort and consistency while still leaving space for meaningful connection and enjoyment.

Photo by Quan Nguyen on Unsplash


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Resident: vibe coding firmware (our new sandbox library for ESP32 devices)

We’re open sourcing Resident, our library for running AI-authored code on microcontrollers – with no compile step and no firmware flashing.

It’s our twist on vibe coding firmware, built for instantly loading new device functionality coded by end users. It’s aimed at device developers, like us. We use Resident in all our work.

(We = Inanimate.)

Resident gives you a code sandbox on ESP32 devices and a driver API to provide hardware control and events. So an end user can push an app over Wi-Fi that instantly turns their clock into an interactive pill timer (for example) but the app can’t run probes on the home Wi-Fi network.

It comes bundled with a set of Claude skills. I told Claude about the capabilities of a compatible dev kit and asked it to push a simple app. Here it is:

At Inanimate, we believe that on-device sandboxes are an essential low-level primitive for AI agents in the real world.

The announcement is over on Lab Notes but I want to take a moment to connect this to some previous themes…


Look, I want to bring software into my room.

Like: if I’m working with Claude Code and I step away from my keyboard, it should be able to give me updates on what it’s working on by taking over my desk clock, and ping its permission requests to the gumstick device I have in my pocket for me to accept/decline while I’m making tea. Untether me from my desk! (btw I built this, it was awesome.)

Or - more prosaically - why can’t I yell at my stove as I’m leaving the house in the morning oh I forgot I’m roasting a chicken that needs to be ready for 7pm and have it look up timings and push me a notification when it’s pre-heating, and show a custom basting timer app on its 14-seg LED display.

"Why can’t I point at a lamp and say ‘on’ and the light come on?"I was asking in 2020.

So half of the solution here is AI: LLMs are super good at translating intent into action. I use regular language and the computer will Do What I Mean (2025).

But the other half is a problem: how does this actually work? Where does the software run?


Every device needs to be able to run user code, that’s the answer.

I’ve been bouncing off this since 2023 when I put an LLM in charge of a smart home (using tech that we now call agents, but then was my implementation of the ReAct pattern from a paper out of Princeton and Google Research).

In a nutshell, let’s say you press a button on your desk clock and your AI agent has to decide in the moment what to do with that. It won’t work, it’s too slow. Cognitively, an interface has to respond inside 150ms or it is no longer instant – but the AI is a network hop away.

Ok so let’s remove the network hop. Let’s pretend we have edge AI: a GPT-4-equiv AI as a component in every physical thing; ubiquitous intelligence is coming and "a Feynmann-level light switch could guess your intentions pretty well," that was was my guess in 2023.

It’s not an outrageous extrapolation! Taalas is baking LLMs into silicon and delivers "17k tokens per second per user on Llama 3.1 8B" (try it here, e.g. 4,000 words on Hamlet as a space opera, it’s wild it’s so instant). So GPT-4-equiv is a matter of time.

Even with that speed, it turns that inference is not enough. To Do What I Mean, you still need to import user context for personalisation and grounding. But memory, Gmail, Wikipedia and the rest are still mostly in the cloud. That network hop again.

So AI can’t be inside the event loop, not if you want really great on-device interactions.

Instead – let the AI write device code. That’s the approach we’ve found.

Take that toy example of a roast chicken basting timer on the display of my stove. My AI agent should be able to dynamically write code for that interactive app, and have that app code executed on the stove itself.

I’m not saying that the AI needs to vibe-code firmware.

Firmware is the code that runs on device microcontrollers: you author it and compile it and you flash it and from that point on, it never changes. AI agents can vibe firmware (very happily). But I’m not sure I want to load code onto my stove that has boundless control over the heating element and the network stack and whatever other low-level capabilities are managed by the firmware itself. We’ve already had smart fridges sending spam email (BBC News, 2014), no more thanks.


Instead of firmware, the AI can run code in sandboxes.

Cloudflare made the case for sandboxes in March this year when they introduced dynamic workers:

Last September we introduced Code Mode, the idea that agents should perform tasks not by making tool calls, but instead by writing code

You can’t just eval() AI-generated code directly in your app: a malicious user could trivially prompt the AI to inject vulnerabilities.

You need a sandbox: a place to execute code that is isolated from your application and from the rest of the world, except for the specific capabilities the code is meant to access.

Sandboxing is a hot topic in the AI industry …

We asked ourselves:

What if, when we allow an AI agent to spread its arms and stretch its legs in a room, it could inhabit devices by writing code that runs in an on-device sandbox, a sandbox that gives access to buttons and screens but not the network stack, and the app code could load and run instantly?

That’s Resident. It provides a code sandbox for ESP32 devices, and a toolchain for AI agents to write apps that target that sandbox.

At Inanimate, we use Resident for all our product prototyping.

And it will be at the heart of our future products.

Look, it may seem wildly disproportionate to write code to turn on a lamp.

But what are computers for? They do the hard work to make it easy for us. So this approach scales well from basic on/off control to… well, it turns out that, now we have this sandbox, we can compose all kinds of useful experiences that take over an entire room – and also weird and wonderful interactive ones that still work when you pull the network cable.

(An app arrives over the network but then the network is no longer required. Resident is built on our messaging library Courier which includes UDP multicast for local inter-device messaging even when internet connectivity drops.)


We’re opening Resident today as an alpha (v0.5.0) and open sourcing it under the highly permissive MIT license. Just include our copyright notice with any modifications.

Technically, we’re adding a Lua runtime to your ESP32 device. (Lua is a language designed to be embedded.)

We love Espressif’s ESP32 microcontroller family because it has a unique span in the ecosystem: it is used by individual makers, new hardware startups, and in production at real scale. It has built-in Wi-Fi and supports its native framework esp-idf and Arduino too, which is great for quick prototyping.

Resident gives you an API to add extensions to that Lua runtime: hardware drivers. Those managed capabilities are what makes it a sandbox. So the apps in the sandbox can respond to events that your button driver injects, and they can write to the display via a module added by your display driver.

The apps can be hot loaded at runtime. The way we have it wired up, you push app code down a websocket to the device and it run immediately in the sandbox.

Adding Resident is straightforward during development: bring up your new device as normal, then point your coding agent at docs/start-building.md. It’ll walk you through adding the sandbox and writing the drivers.

Resident comes bundled with:

  • Connectivity: websockets, JSON messaging, and easy Wi-Fi config
  • A default back-end server at resident.inanimate.tech so you can easily push new apps and events – use the example code to build out your own back-end when you’re ready
  • A collection of Claude skills to create, validate and push new apps to your devices (and even write device documentation)
  • Example projects.

Want to try Resident now?

Ahead of developing your new device, pick up an M5StickS3. These are made by M5, I talked about them when we announced Courier.

The M5Stick is a dev kit that has an ESP32 with a screen, battery, couple of buttons, buzzer and IMU. You can bring it up using Arduino pretty simply. Then add Resident and start writing apps. We have an example project.

Want to get going even faster?

You don’t even need hardware…

The Try it now section of the Resident homepage has a M5Stick simulator, running the Resident sandbox in-browser.

Drag and drop an app onto the simulator to see it run.

Or even: install the Claude skills, tap the button on the webpage to make the simulator live, and create apps from your local Claude Code session. The in-browser simulator will update live and run your app.

Hey, deep cut reference alert:

Back in 2021 I went on a dive into files: Golems, smart objects, and the file metaphor.

What would it mean to drag and drop a file onto a lightbulb? I asked. "Do I literally mean that the lightbulb needs a little slot like the golem’s mouth, into which you insert your instructions stamped on microfiche?"

This is my answer haha


Resident is what we’ve been using to prototype products and use cases at Inanimate.

We believe that one day all products will work this way.

For more info, the GitHub, and to try it now: Resident.

For updates: subscribe to Lab Notes.


More posts tagged: inanimate (6).

Neale Mahoney interviews me abut Moral Economics on Econ to Go

 Neale Mahoney interviews me on Econ to go (with a transcript of our half hour conversation).

 "Neale Mahoney: Markets are often treated like natural objects, things that simply exist. But economist Al Roth sees them differently. To him, markets are human inventions, systems we design, shape, and sometimes struggle to agree on. Because when money and morality collide, things can get complicated. Who should be allowed to buy and sell? What should they be allowed to transact? and what happens when people want to trade things that others find morally unacceptable.

Alvin Roth: I think that one of the things we need to do is experiment on what we're morally obliged to do and reflect on it in connection with what we're actually able to do. 

Neale Mahoney: I'm Neale Mahoney, Economist and Director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. On this episode of "Econ To Go," I catch up with Stanford Economist and Nobel Laureate Al Roth over coffee on campus. We talk about what he calls moral economics, the study of markets where society struggles to agree on what should be bought and sold. From kidney exchange to commercial surrogacy, from prostitution laws to the surprising economics of matchmaking, Al shows us that markets don't just allocate goods. They also reflect our values. You've said that markets and marketplaces are human artifacts. They are not just features of the natural environment. Why is that a good starting place when we think about the study of economics?

Alvin Roth: Well, for a long time, economists sort of thought that markets were things that we just had to take as given. You know, we speak of economists thinking of people as price takers, but in fact, they also thought of us as market takers. There are these markets. But of course, markets are human artifacts. To a great extent they're collective human artifacts, but marketplaces are often artifacts of individual companies or designers, or small groups of participants who modify the marketplace to fit their needs over time, just in the way that Uber is a marketplace designed by the company Uber. But I think there's a good analogy, which is that languages are also human artifacts, and they're collective human artifacts. You and I can speak to each other in English because we both learned English in a conventional way, but there are lots of words in our English that weren't in the language 100 years ago, words like computer and internet and AI. So, we're constantly modifying the language to better suit our needs."

Here is the whole half hour interview on YouTube:

 

There's also a Stanford news story:

Sex, drugs & surrogacy: When morality and markets clash
Stanford’s Alvin Roth won the Nobel Prize for improving how markets work. In a new book, he introduces a new way of thinking about society’s most controversial transactions, from sex work to drugs to assisted dying.
  byKrysten Crawford

 

Looking for a donkey

Close-up photo of an elderly man in a hat gazing upwards, wrinkles visible on his weathered face, blurred background.

After two arrests and a national uproar, why is it so tricky to find the donkey once likened to Venezuela’s president?

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

"I'll buy 10 of those"—NASA science chief yearns for mass-produced satellites

There are more opportunities to access space than ever, thanks to a bevy of commercial rockets, some with reusable boosters, led by SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9. So why is NASA launching fewer telescopes and planetary science missions than it did a quarter-century ago?

The answer is complex. It is not necessarily the money. The space agency's science budget this year is $7.25 billion, roughly the same as it was in 2000, adjusted for inflation. This is despite attempts by the Trump administration to drastically reduce NASA science funding.

In the early months of his tenure, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's focus has been on human spaceflight and the Moon. This isn't terribly surprising given NASA's wildly successful Artemis II mission carrying four astronauts around the Moon last month. Since taking office in December, Isaacman has announced an overhaul of the Artemis program, canceling a space station to be built in orbit around the Moon in favor of construction of a base on the lunar surface.

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A dark wolf lies in gum. No, this isn’t a riddle! A dark wolf lies in gum. No, this isn’t a riddle!


May 18, 2026


I have been traveling and tonight have hit the wall as I tried to write, so at this hour am opting for bed rather than trying to grind out today’s letter.

But I’ll leave you with this. Before I left home, I snuck onto the water one evening for my first kayak of the year and caught this picture.

Summer is around the corner, and I can’t wait.

I'll be back at it tomorrow.

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When nationalism inspires blood

So in case you missed this, over the weekend a bunch of white Christian nationalists gathered in Washington to pray before the video imagery of a man who raw dogged a porn star, then paid her off in hush money.

It was, officially, referred to as a “rededication of our country as One Nation Under God upon America’s 250th birthday,” but unofficially it marked this warped, disgusting, disturbing administration’s efforts to establish the United States as a Christian—and only Christian—landscape.

Pretty much all the speakers were hard-core Christians.

Pretty much all the attendees were hard-core Christians.

We are America!

We obey Jesus!

We are America!

We obey Jesus!

We are …

•••

Last night, in San Diego, two teenagers with guns fired upon a mosque in the Clairemont neighborhood, killing three people before turning the weapons upon themselves. Earlier in the day, a mother of one of the murderers called police, informing them that she was “concerned” about her child’s potential behavior.

And here we sit.

As one could have predicted, Donald Trump has nothing of substance to say about this. Nothing. Of. Substance. His only offering (“It’s a terrible situation. I’ve been given some early updates, but we’re going to be going back and looking at it very strongly.”) is typical ridiculousness. What does looking at something strongly even mean? What does it say?

Were this a church in San Diego, with little white children and little white men and little white women, and had the two shooters been Muslim, Trump would have already flown to California. He would have declared war on Islam. He would have cut off more countries. He would have said we all need to praise Jesus in these tough times, that God is the blah blah yick yuck blah blech hee hah.

Instead, multiple attendees at a mosque are dead.

The president is indifferent.

For we are a Christian nation.

llm-gemini 0.32a0

Release: llm-gemini 0.32a0

  • Compatible with llm>=0.32a0 alpha - adds the ability to stream reasoning tokens.

Tags: gemini, llm

datasette-llm 0.1a8

Release: datasette-llm 0.1a8

  • Fix for bug where llm_prompt_context() hook did not fully collect chains of responses. #7

The Looting of America

Reuters

So the Trump administration is creating a $1.776 billion slush fund — 1776, get it? — to pay off victims of “lawfare and weaponization.” Just to be clear, if you’re a U.S. taxpayer, this action means that almost $1.8 billion of your money will be handed out to whomever a panel appointed by Donald Trump decides to reward. The beneficiaries are likely to include January 6 insurrectionists, as well as Trump, his family, and his allies.

Few things shock me these days, but this development — in which a Justice Department that works for Trump is paying a vast sum to “settle” a lawsuit brought by Trump himself — is a new nadir in self-dealing, further revealing Trump’s utter contempt for the American people.

Now, massive corruption on the part of Trump and his minions isn’t new. But the shamelessness of this latest episode of looting takes it to a new level. Until now, we’ve seen a combination of crony capitalism and insider trading. Plutocrats and corporations have been enriching Trump through back channels, especially crypto, in return for government contracts and policy favors, while Trump himself and people close to Trump have been making hugely profitable market bets thanks to advance knowledge of government policies.

But now Trump has eliminated the middlemen, effectively telling his officials to pay money directly to him or anyone else he favors.

Granted, we already knew that Trump was, by orders of magnitude, the most corrupt president in U.S. history. But now Trump is the most explicitly corrupt leader in today’s world. After all, Vladimir Putin has obviously stolen billions, but never this brazenly. Even Third World dictators normally try to mask their corruption.

Don’t say that this taxpayer-financed slush fund won’t have political consequences.

On the contrary, the polling and focus-group analyses I’ve seen say that voters are very angry about corruption. Trump’s theft of taxpayer money, while people are losing healthcare coverage and food aid while suffering from Trump-induced higher prices, is perfect fodder for the Democrats in the upcoming elections.

So we should ask ourselves why the Trumpists have abandoned all restraint. There have been many corrupt politicians in U.S. history – although they were pikers in comparison to Trump. Yet they at least attempted to hide their corruption, or at least keep it discreet and deniable, in order to avoid a voter backlash.

I would argue that the blatant nature of the new looting is a signpost of where America under Trumpism is heading in the months and years ahead.

It’s true that Trump has a base that will support him no matter what, in many cases literally believing that he has been chosen by God. This puts a floor under this support. But his disastrous recent polling, as Nate Cohn writes in the Times, suggest that this floor may be lower than many thought.

Now, we already know that Trump and his allies have no intention of facing free and fair elections. With the unstinting help of the Roberts Supreme Court, they have already rigged the midterms through redistricting. Trump minions are actively trying to depress Democratic-leaning voter turnout, by demanding from states the right to challenge their voting rolls. And it would be naïve to think that redistricting will be the end of the MAGA effort to undermine democracy.

Still, Trump is aware that, even with Republican gerrymandering, November may deliver a blue wave big enough to hand Democrats the House and, quite possibly the Senate. G. Elliott Morris estimates that Democrats will need a 4-point popular vote advantage to win the House, but the latest Times poll gives them an 11 point lead. Why, then, isn’t he trying to be at least slightly discreet in his corruption?

One answer is that even if MAGA loses big in November, Democrats can’t count on wave elections every cycle, and the field is now strongly tilted against them. As Morris writes.

While the situation for Democrats is not necessarily dire for 2026, the situation for democracy in 2028 and beyond certainly is.

So you can think of the $1.8 billion slush fund as a promise to MAGA-world that there is a payoff to be had if they just stick with him for the next two and a half years.

Beyond that, we are, in effect, watching what happens when a quasi-authoritarian regime’s corruption and criminality pass the point of no return.

At this point Trump and his MAGA minions have stolen so much, committed so many crimes — not just theft but taking America to war illegally, abusing ICE detainees, and much more — that if and when they lose power many of them will face personal ruin at best, years of jail time at worst. This would happen even if they stopped committing more crimes.

So there’s no incentive for them to end their criminality, or to end the attempts to bribe others to go along. Either they succeed in destroying America as we know it, or they won’t. And until that’s resolved, they may as well engage in even more corruption and criminal acts.

Think of it this way: The gravity of what the Trumpists have already done has created a sort of black hole at the center of American political life — and the Trumpists have already crossed the event horizon, the boundary beyond which there is no escape. So they will do ever more terrible things, because they have nothing more to lose.

MUSICAL CODA

llm-gemini 0.32

Release: llm-gemini 0.32

See also my notes on Gemini 3.5 Flash, and the pelican I drew using this upgrade to the plugin.

Tags: gemini, llm

Gemini 3.5 Flash: more expensive, but Google plan to use it for everything

Today at Google I/O, Google released Gemini 3.5 Flash. This one skipped the -preview modifier and went straight to general availability, and Google appear to be using it for a whole lot of their key products:

3.5 Flash is available today to billions of people globally:

  • For everyone via the Gemini app and AI Mode in Google Search
  • For developers in our agent-first development platform Google Antigravity and Gemini API in Google AI Studio and Android Studio
  • For enterprises in Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform and Gemini Enterprise.

As usual with Gemini, the most interesting details are tucked away in the What's new in Gemini 3.5 Flash developer documentation. It mostly has the same set of platform features as the previous Gemini 3.x series, albeit with no computer use. The model ID is gemini-3.5-flash. The knowledge cut-off is January 2025, and it supports 1,048,576 input tokens and 65,536 maximum output tokens.

Google are also pushing a new Interactions API, currently in beta, which looks to me like their version of the patterns introduced by OpenAI Responses - in particular server-side history management.

The price has gone up

Gemini 3.5 Flash is accompanied by a notable price bump. The previous models in the "Flash" family were Gemini 3 Flash Preview and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. The new 3.5 Flash is 3x the price of 3 Flash Preview and 6x the price of 3.1 Flash-Lite (see price comparison here).

At $1.50/million input and $9/million output it's getting close in price to Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, which is $2 and $12.

The Gemini team promise that 3.5 Pro will roll out "next month" - presumably at an even higher price.

This fits a trend: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 was 2x the price of GPT-5.4, and Claude Opus 4.7 is around 1.46x the price of 4.6 when you take the new tokenizer into account.

Given the price increase it's interesting to see Google roll it out for so many of their own free-to-consumer products. It feels like all three of the major AI labs are starting to probe the price tolerance of their API customers.

Artificial Analysis publish the cost to run their proprietary benchmark against models, which is a useful way to take things like tokenization and increased volume of reasoning tokens into account. Some numbers worth comparing:

Running the benchmark for 3.5 Flash (high) cost significantly more than 3.1 Pro Preview!

Here are some numbers from other vendors:

A pelican on a bicycle

I ran "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle" against the Gemini API and got back this pelican, which is a lot:

Black background, bats in the sky against a stylized moon. Pelican is funky looking. Very good beak. Bicycle frame is a bit twisted, and the bar from pedals to back wheel is missing. Bike lamp illuminates the road in front. Quite stylish.

From the code comments: <!-- Pelican Eye / Sunglasses (Cool Retro Aviators) -->

hedgehog on Hacker News:

That pelican looks like it's in Miami for a crypto conference.

That one cost me 11 input tokens and 14,403 output tokens, for a total cost of just under 13 cents.

Tags: google, ai, generative-ai, llms, gemini, llm-pricing, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llm-release

datasette-llm-accountant 0.1a4

Release: datasette-llm-accountant 0.1a4

Tags: llm, datasette

Andrej Karpathy Joined Anthropic

Andrej Karpathy, on Twitter/X (XCancel link):

Personal update: I’ve joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.

Karpathy is, to say the least, a star in the AI research field. He co-founded OpenAI in 2015, was director of AI at Tesla (reporting directly to Elon Musk) from 2017–2022, went back to OpenAI in 2023, and then left again in 2024 to start an AI education company named Eureka Labs. He coined the term “vibe coding” in February last year.

 ★ 

John Burn-Murdoch on phones and fertility

From my email:

Hi folks, appreciate the discussion of the piece here, as ever.

I just wanted to chime in briefly with an analogy that speaks to one of the ways I think about the causal mechanism here, and to my mind pushes back against the argument that since past declines in fertility didn’t come from smartphones etc the current decline can’t either.

• ⁠In the past, weight loss generally came from sustained dieting and exercise
•⁠  ⁠⁠Now it overwhelmingly comes from injecting GLP-1s
•⁠  ⁠⁠In the same way that GLP-1s are a technological shock that amplifies/accelerates the old mechanism (eating less), social media is a technological shock that amplifies/accelerates the old mechanism (cultural change)

To my mind one of the ways (possibly the main way) that phones and social media could be affecting fertility is by accelerating and internationalising pre-existing trends of cultural change. One example could be young women’s sense of empowerment and independence, which was on the rise in many parts of the world but has sped up over the past decade or two (I would point to my previous work on the ideological gender divide as one piece of evidence here) and has spread rapidly to regions and cultures that were surely very unlikely to reach this point without exposure to western social media.

Thoughts?

I will add one point on this debate, noting I do not think it runs counter to Burn-Murdoch.  Some commentators are insisting that what really matters is how many children survive to adulthood, not how many are born in the first place.  But both numbers matter a good deal.  Every time a woman gets pregnant she incurs significant costs, especially in older times when death in childbirth was common, or even death or health problems from a miscarriage were a much greater risk.  Furthermore, if you tried for seven kids, but only expected three or four to survive, a lot of times more than three or four survived.  So general survival of all or almost all your children had to be a palatable option, even if the expected value was lower than that.

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Tajikistan fact of the day

Tajikistan’s remittances are worth nearly half the country’s GDP—

In Tajikistan, remittances — the money sent or brought back by migrants — amounted to 48% of GDP in 2024. The chart places this figure in context by comparing it with other countries with data for the same year. Nicaragua and Honduras receive remittances worth around a quarter of their GDP — high by global standards, but still far below Tajikistan’s level. Remittances here include two types of flows: money migrants abroad send home to their families, and money cross-border workers bring home from short-term jobs abroad.

Both of these flows play a role in Tajikistan, where most remittances come from labor migrants in Russia. In addition to the roughly 400,000 Tajiks settled there, hundreds of thousands more cross the border for seasonal and short-term work.

According to a report from the International Organization for Migration, about 1.2 million Tajiks were in Russia in mid-2024, which is more than a tenth of Tajikistan’s total population.

The World Bank’s latest Tajikistan Economic Update says that much of the country’s recent rapid economic growth (above 8% since 2021) was supported by these remittance inflows.

That is from Our World in Data, with a picture at the link.

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Fire Chars Santa Rosa Island

False Color
Natural Color
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island shows a dark-brown burned area toward the bottom-right. A thin, bright orange line runs along the burned area, indicating the active fire front.
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island shows a dark-brown burned area toward the bottom-right. A thin, bright orange line runs along the burned area, indicating the active fire front.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island is mostly brown, with a darker brown area on the bottom-right side. Gray-white smoke drifts toward the bottom-right over dark blue ocean water.
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island is mostly brown, with a darker brown area on the bottom-right side. Gray-white smoke drifts toward the bottom-right over dark blue ocean water.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island shows a dark-brown burned area toward the bottom-right. A thin, bright orange line runs along the burned area, indicating the active fire front.
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island shows a dark-brown burned area toward the bottom-right. A thin, bright orange line runs along the burned area, indicating the active fire front.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island is mostly brown, with a darker brown area on the bottom-right side. Gray-white smoke drifts toward the bottom-right over dark blue ocean water.
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island is mostly brown, with a darker brown area on the bottom-right side. Gray-white smoke drifts toward the bottom-right over dark blue ocean water.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
False Color
Natural Color
A wildland fire burns on Santa Rosa Island in California’s Channel Islands National Park, visible in these false-color (left) and natural-color (right) images captured on May 16, 2026, by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9.

Channel Islands National Park, a chain of five ecologically rich islands off the coast of mainland California, is known for its diversity of plant and animal species, earning it the nickname “North America’s Galapagos.” For part of May 2026, Santa Rosa Island—the park’s second-largest island—was closed to the public as firefighters worked to contain a wildland fire burning through grassland, coastal sage scrub, and areas of island chaparral.

The fire was first spotted from aircraft on May 15, 2026, and confirmed by the National Park Service that morning. The Landsat 9 satellite captured these images the next day, when the burned area had grown to 5,690 acres (2,300 hectares). By May 19, it had burned around 16,600 acres (6,700 hectares), including much of the southeastern quadrant of the island. Its perimeter remained uncontained.

The left image is false color, composed of wavelengths that cut through the smoke to reveal the burned area (dark brown). The infrared signature of the actively burning fire front is orange. The second image, on the right, shows the same area in natural color, as human eyes would see it, with smoke pouring over the Pacific Ocean.

Officials and news accounts said the fire was human-caused, though investigators were still working to determine the circumstances surrounding the event. According to news reports, the fire burned near a stand of Torrey pines, a rare type of pine that in the United States grows naturally only on Santa Rosa Island and near San Diego.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

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Anderson confirmed as NASA deputy administrator

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SpaceX launches 24 Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 rocket launch from Vandenberg SFB

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base on the Starlink 17-42 mission on May 19, 2026. Image: SpaceX

Update May 20, 12 a.m. EDT (0400 UTC): SpaceX confirmed deployment of the Starlink satellites.

SpaceX launched its Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base Tuesday night to send a batch of its Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit.

The mission, dubbed Starlink 17-42, added another 24 broadband internet satellites to a constellation of spacecraft that consists of more than 10,000 spacecraft. More than 600 of those satellites support direct-to-device capabilities.

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Investors fear another surge in inflation

So why aren’t more buying inflation-protected bonds?

Tuesday 19 May 1663

Up pretty betimes, but yet I observe how my dancing and lying a morning or two longer than ordinary for my cold do make me hard to rise as I used to do, or look after my business as I am wont.

To my chamber to make an end of my papers to my father to be sent by the post to-night, and taking copies of them, which was a great work, but I did it this morning, and so to my office, and thence with Sir John Minnes to the Tower; and by Mr. Slingsby, and Mr. Howard, Controller of the Mint, we were shown the method of making this new money, from the beginning to the end, which is so pretty that I did take a note of every part of it and set them down by themselves for my remembrance hereafter. That being done it was dinner time, and so the Controller would have us dine with him and his company, the King giving them a dinner every day. And very merry and good discourse about the business we have been upon, and after dinner went to the Assay Office and there saw the manner of assaying of gold and silver, and how silver melted down with gold do part, just being put into aqua-fortis, the silver turning into water, and the gold lying whole in the very form it was put in, mixed of gold and silver, which is a miracle; and to see no silver at all but turned into water, which they can bring again into itself out of the water. —[Not water — a solution of Silver Oxide. D.W.]—

And here I was made thoroughly to understand the business of the fineness and coarseness of metals, and have put down my lessons with my other observations therein.

At table among other discourse they told us of two cheats, the best I ever heard. One, of a labourer discovered to convey away the bits of silver cut out pence by swallowing them down into his belly, and so they could not find him out, though, of course, they searched all the labourers; but, having reason to doubt him, they did, by threats and promises, get him to confess, and did find 7l. of it in his house at one time.

The other of one that got a way of coyning money as good and passable and large as the true money is, and yet saved fifty per cent. to himself, which was by getting moulds made to stamp groats like old groats, which is done so well, and I did beg two of them which I keep for rarities, that there is not better in the world, and is as good, nay, better than those that commonly go, which was the only thing that they could find out to doubt them by, besides the number that the party do go to put off, and then coming to the Comptroller of the Mint, he could not, I say, find out any other thing to raise any doubt upon, but only their being so truly round or near it, though I should never have doubted the thing neither. He was neither hanged nor burned, —[No! They probably copied his technique. D.W.]— the cheat was thought so ingenious, and being the first time they could ever trap him in it, and so little hurt to any man in it, the money being as good as commonly goes.

Thence to the office till the evening, we sat, and then by water (taking Pembleton with us), over the water to the Halfway House, where we played at ninepins, and there my damned jealousy took fire, he and my wife being of a side and I seeing of him take her by the hand in play, though I now believe he did [it] only in passing and sport. Thence home and being 10 o’clock was forced to land beyond the Custom House, and so walked home and to my office, and having dispatched my great letters by the post to my father, of which I keep copies to show by me and for my future understanding, I went home to supper and bed, being late.

The most observables in the making of money which I observed to-day, is the steps of their doing it.

  1. Before they do anything they assay the bullion, which is done, if it be gold, by taking an equal weight of that and of silver, of each a small weight, which they reckon to be six ounces or half a pound troy; this they wrap up in within lead.

    If it be silver, they put such a quantity of that alone and wrap it up in lead, and then putting them into little earthen cupps made of stuff like tobacco pipes, and put them into a burning hot furnace, where, after a while, the whole body is melted, and at last the lead in both is sunk into the body of the cupp, which carries away all the copper or dross with it, and left the pure gold and silver embodyed together, of that which hath both been put into the cupp together, and the silver alone in these where it was put alone in the leaden case. And to part the silver and the gold in the first experiment, they put the mixed body into a glass of aqua-fortis, which separates them by spitting out the silver into such small parts that you cannot tell what it becomes, but turns into the very water and leaves the gold at the bottom clear of itself, with the silver wholly spit out, and yet the gold in the form that it was doubled together in when it was a mixed body of gold and silver, which is a great mystery; and after all this is done to get the silver together out of the water is as strange.

    But the nature of the assay is thus: the piece of gold that goes into the furnace twelve ounces, if it comes out again eleven ounces, and the piece of silver which goes in twelve and comes out again eleven and two pennyweight, are just of the alloy of the standard of England. If it comes out, either of them, either the gold above eleven, as very fine will sometimes within very little of what it went in, or the silver above eleven and two pennyweight, as that also will sometimes come out eleven and ten penny weight or more, they are so much above the goodness of the standard, and so they know what proportion of worse gold and silver to put to such a quantity of the bullion to bring it to the exact standard. And on the contrary, [if] it comes out lighter, then such a weight is beneath the standard, and so requires such a proportion of fine metal to be put to the bullion to bring it to the standard, and this is the difference of good and bad, better and worse than the standard, and also the difference of standards, that of Seville being the best and that of Mexico worst, and I think they said none but Seville is better than ours.

  2. They melt it into long plates, which, if the mould do take ayre, then the plate is not of an equal heaviness in every part of it, as it often falls out.

  3. They draw these plates between rollers to bring them to an even thickness all along and every plate of the same thickness, and it is very strange how the drawing it twice easily between the rollers will make it as hot as fire, yet cannot touch it. —[Many principles of Physics had not yet then been deliniated. D.W.]—

  4. They bring it to another pair of rollers, which they call adjusting it, which bring it to a greater exactness in its thickness than the first could be.

  5. They cut them into round pieces, which they do with the greatest ease, speed, and exactness in the world.

  6. They weigh these, and where they find any to be too heavy they file them, which they call sizeing them; or light, they lay them by, which is very seldom, but they are of a most exact weight, but however, in the melting, all parts by some accident not being close alike, now and then a difference will be, and, this filing being done, there shall not be any imaginable difference almost between the weight of forty of these against another forty chosen by chance out of all their heaps.

  7. These round pieces having been cut out of the plates, which in passing the rollers are bent, they are sometimes a little crooked or swelling out or sinking in, and therefore they have a way of clapping 100 or 2 together into an engine, which with a screw presses them so hard that they come out as flat as is possible.

  8. They blanch them.

  9. They mark the letters on the edges, which is kept as the great secret by Blondeau, who was not in the way, and so I did not speak with him to-day.1

  10. They mill them, that is, put on the marks on both sides at once with great exactness and speed, and then the money is perfect.

    The mill is after this manner: one of the dyes, which has one side of the piece cut, is fastened to a thing fixed below, and the other dye (and they tell me a payre of dyes will last the marking of 10,000l. before it be worn out, they and all other their tools being made of hardened steel, and the Dutchman who makes them is an admirable artist, and has so much by the pound for every pound that is coyned to find a constant supply of dyes) to an engine above, which is moveable by a screw, which is pulled by men; and then a piece being clapped by one sitting below between the two dyes, when they meet the impression is set, and then the man with his finger strikes off the piece and claps another in, and then the other men they pull again and that is marked, and then another and another with great speed.

They say that this way is more charge to the King than the old way, but it is neater, freer from clipping or counterfeiting, the putting of the words upon the edges being not to be done (though counterfeited) without an engine of the charge and noise that no counterfeit will be at or venture upon, and it employs as many men as the old and speedier.

They now coyne between 16l. and 24,000l. in a week.

At dinner they did discourse very finely to us of the probability that there is a vast deal of money hid in the land, from this:—

That in King Charles’s time there was near ten millions of money coyned, besides what was then in being of King James’s and Queene Elizabeth’s, of which there is a good deal at this day in being.

Next, that there was but 750,000l. coyned of the Harp and Crosse money, and of this there was 500,000l. brought in upon its being called in. And from very good arguments they find that there cannot be less of it in Ireland and Scotland than 100,000l.; so that there is but 150,000l. missing; and of that, suppose that there should be not above 650,000 still remaining, either melted down, hid, or lost, or hoarded up in England, there will then be but 100,000l. left to be thought to have been transported.

Now, if 750,000l. in twelve years’ time lost but a 100,000l. in danger of being transported, then within thirty-five years’ time will have lost but 3,888,880l. and odd pounds; and as there is 650,000l. remaining after twelve years’ time in England, so after thirty-five years’ time, which was within this two years, there ought in proportion to have been resting 6,111,120l. or thereabouts, beside King James’s and Queen Elizabeth’s money.

Now that most of this must be hid is evident, as they reckon, because of the dearth of money immediately upon the calling-in of the State’s money, which was 500,000l. that came in; and yet there was not any money to be had in this City, which they say to their own observation and knowledge was so. And therefore, though I can say nothing in it myself, I do not dispute it.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Gen Z’s Political Gender Divide Is Now Showing Up In Schools

Young men and women split sharply in 2024. Teachers and students say that rift is reshaping classrooms, friendships and dating.

On November 5, 2024, men and women around the U.S. headed to the polls to decide a race hyped as a battle of the sexes.

By evening’s end, Kamala Harris’ quest to punch through the “highest, hardest glass ceiling” and become America’s first female president lay in shambles. Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s undisputed alpha male since 2015, would return to the White House. And voters, especially the youngest ones, were starkly divided along gender lines.

As in each of the three previous federal elections, women’s support for the Democratic ticket considerably exceeded men’s. But the gulf separating Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 was historically wide: According to an analysis by Catalist, a data and analytics company that contracts with progressive organizations, Harris won the backing of 63 percent of women and just 46 percent of men.

The 17-point gap cleaving through Generation Z was not only bigger than that of every other age group; it was comfortably the largest Catalist had measured across four presidential cycles. Surveys of Trump’s approval conducted by NBC News corroborated the same trend the following year, showing disparities between the men and women of Gen Z that eclipsed smaller splits among Millennials, Gen Xers and Baby Boomers.

Jennifer Benz, a political scientist who leads the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, said findings like that were consistent across surveys she administered prior to the Trump-Harris contest, as well as exit polling conducted at the end of the campaign. Men and women have generally favored different political parties for roughly a half-century, but it was unusual for newly minted voters to lead the way, she added.

“What’s been notable about this younger generation is that the gender divide is already shaping up now, as opposed to when they age into the more typical partisan patterns we’ve seen over recent years,” Benz said.

While Gen Z’s gender gap is a relatively new phenomenon, its features can already be seen in K–12 schools. They spring from the rancorous gender politics of the 2020s, which have left girls repelled by Trump’s policies and boys disaffected by Democrats’ seeming indifference to their concerns.

As the youngest “Zoomers” enter high school this year, they appear to be accelerating toward the political — and often social — estrangement already evident among their older brothers and sisters. Their stories, based on interviews with The 74 and supported by the insights of educators and public opinion researchers, offer a rare snapshot of that polarization as it takes shape. In America’s college campuses and high school homerooms, young adults are seeing the world differently, occupying separate online spaces and even demonstrating an aversion to dating.

Sarah Campbell, a high school teacher in Brunswick, Maine, said she’d noticed a pronounced change in her social studies classroom. Earlier in her career, students broadly approached discussions of politics and public policy with open minds. But over the past 10 years, a growing number have entered those conversations “already aligned with certain ideas.”

“I’ve had girls talk about things like safety, rights or future opportunities in very real, personal ways, and in the same conversation, boys are questioning whether those issues are still relevant,” Campbell wrote in an email. “They’re not just disagreeing, they’re experiencing these issues from completely different realities.”

‘Feminism rooted in me’

Those distinct worldviews may have origins stretching long before adolescence. Celeste Lay, a professor at Tulane University who studies how young people acquire political beliefs, noted that their beginnings overlap with children’s early attempts to fashion adult identities for themselves.

“At the same time young people are going through political socialization, they’re also going through gender socialization,” she said. “So as they’re developing their politics, they’re learning what it means to be a boy or a girl and what society says those concepts mean.”

In a 2022 paper, Lay and several co-authors used survey data from more than 1,500 children to determine when they start to examine the world through the lens of partisanship. They discovered that kids as young as six are already tottering down the path to the ballot box, and nearly half the study’s participants affiliated with a party by the age of 12.

A high school senior named Lily was once such a novice partisan. Raised in South Lyon, Michigan, along the outskirts of Metro Detroit, she was encouraged by liberal-minded parents to take an interest in U.S. history and current events. When she was 8, the Democrats nominated the first woman to lead a major party’s presidential ticket. After that, her course was set.

“This sense of feminism rooted in me because my parents were letting me educate myself,” Lily recalled. “When Hillary Clinton was up against Trump, I was like, ‘There’s never been a female president! I have to support her.’”

A decade after that formative electoral heartbreak, she spoke to The 74 while taking part in the National Student Leadership Council, a for-profit summer program offering learning experiences in a range of fields. Alongside a few dozen others with similarly arcane interests in bicameralism and campaign finance, Lily — whose last name has been withheld to allow her and her peers to speak freely about political matters — spent nine days last July at the Georgetown University campus. In between sessions role-playing as U.S. congressmen, the group made field trips to walk the halls of the Capitol in person.

Lily and her fellow government enthusiasts might reasonably be called some of the most civically engaged high schoolers in the nation. But countless girls her age followed a similar trajectory to both political consciousness and the political left.

In the years spanning the Clinton and Biden administrations, the youngest female voters steadily warmed to the label of “liberal” (historically the least-popular ideological category). By 2023, Gallup research shows, the proportion of women aged 18–29 who described themselves as liberal had leapt from 28 percent to 40 percent, while liberal men of the same age stalled at 25 percent over that period.

The evolution was not merely rhetorical. Teenage and 20-something women adopted more progressive stances on the environment, abortion, gun rights, marijuana access, the Israel-Palestine conflict and an array of other cultural issues. Today, the women of Gen Z are commonly regarded as the single most liberal voter demographic.

Marie Sarnacki, an English and history instructor in South Lyon, contrasted recent waves of female students with those in her own graduating class of 2009. While stipulating that she spoke only for herself, Sarnacki added that girls in 2026 had far fewer reservations about voicing feminist beliefs on some of the most pressing questions of the day.

“I don’t know if they would give themselves the label, but it’s safe to say they’re more open about their concern for reproductive rights or supporting classmates who are gay,” she said.

The elephant in the room

Sarnacki believes that the ideological shift she has witnessed throughout 11 years in the classroom can be substantially explained by a corresponding development unfolding on the right.

Trump’s presidencies, each achieved through the historic defeat of female candidates, have repeatedly pushed debates around sexism and women’s rights to the center of the national agenda, she argued. From the Women’s March to the #MeToo-inflected Kavanaugh hearings, the demise of Roe v. Wadeand the president’s demeaning comments about various female opponents, the Trump era may have hastened a leftward drift that was already in progress.

Daniel Cox, director of the conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI)’s Survey Center on American Life, agreed with Sarnacki. While women have lately gained ground against or even pulled ahead of men in some professional and educational spheres, he continued, many of the most “momentous cultural events” of the last 10 years led them to the conclusion that their rights were imperiled.

“They were doing really well in higher education and high schools in terms of AP courses and graduation rates, and tons of statistics suggest that young women were comparatively doing better than men,” Cox said. “But when they looked around politics and the culture, they were upset about a lot of things and became politically active.”

Public opinion research provides clear signs that their dissatisfaction remains high during the second Trump presidency — and is equally vivid among those too young to participate in elections. An AP-NORC survey from last summer revealed that, within a representative panel of children aged 13–17, girls were vastly more negative than boys in their assessments of Trump (-38 from females versus -7 favorability from male respondents) and the GOP (-16 from girls and +2 from boys), while also much warmer toward the Democratic Party (+13 from girls and -5 from boys).

Trump’s macho stylings and media omnipresence play a crucial role in expanding the rift. Lily remarked that he has become an inescapable figure, whether in school or on social media. If anything, the president’s ubiquity was actually heightened by his reelection defeat in 2020, which lengthened his time in the spotlight.

“He’s so loud, with all the scandalous things he’s done,” she said. “You can avoid the news, but you can’t avoid him.”

Another participant in the NSLC’s Georgetown session was Cate, a junior enrolled at a small private school in Louisville, Kentucky. Like Lily, she said she was motivated by societal injustice to become involved in politics. Her father is gay, and his experiences were part of what spurred her to activism.

But whether engaged in private discussions with friends or public outreach through her school’s Human Rights Club, Cate felt frustrated by her male classmates’ lack of interest in the politics of Kentucky or the wider world.

She expressed particular disappointment with boys in her school who, she suspected, held views similar to hers but would not voice them out of fear of losing face with friends who “idolize” Trump’s brash manner. The gush of short-form entertainment glorifying the president on platforms like TikTok helped foster a hero worship that was difficult to puncture.

It was understandable that young men would seek to emulate a powerful personality, Cate said, specifically citing the 2024 assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. The moment after that attack, when the then-candidate rose to his feet and exhorted his audience to “fight,” has become a centerpiece of video edits aimed at teenage boys, she said. Yet his influence heightened a dynamic in which “empathy is seen by this generation of men as weak, feminine.”

“It gets into all this misogyny,” she lamented. “But women, who don’t care about that and can be empathetic loudly, are more able to share their political opinions.”

‘Where am I in this equation?’

Girls were not alone in observing the stridency of gender conflict. Nor were self-described progressives the only ones to complain about its occasionally personal nature.

Nathan, a junior from the prosperous suburban enclave of Westfield, New Jersey, struck a note of bemusement when describing an oft-abused target of the online right: left-leaning white women, a category encompassing many of the students he’d met that week at Georgetown.

“There’s a stereotype that liberal white women are self-hating,” he said. “And supposedly it’s not feminine, and it’s not attractive, and it’s not manly if you support it.”

Voluble and direct, Nathan described himself as a “right-winger,” one of the few participating in the program. But he professed no admiration for political harangues mingled with sexism, and he objected to the treatment suffered by some of his gay classmates at home, who he said were frequently mocked in private.

Instead, along with several other male students, he spent much of an hour-long conversation with The 74 lampooning the fixation of social authorities — including his school’s leaders — with identity politics. A multitude of perceived sins drew their attention, including the proliferation of various “heritage months” across the school calendar and the alleged maligning of the Founding Fathers in history curricula. The most annoying of these were dismissed as “virtue signaling.”

Many politically engaged young men share Nathan’s perspective on the newfound prominence of equity-focused language and policies.

This is, in fact, a key distinction between male and female Zoomers. According to an AP-NORC poll released in 2022, Gen Z men and their Millennial counterparts were only about half as likely as women to “closely follow” news coverage of social issues. And while the rising salience of such causes, including LGBT rights and abortion, have clearly played a role in politically activating many American women, they do not appear to have galvanized men to support Democratic candidates.

While Catalist’s overview of the election results shows that both men and women became more likely to vote Republican between 2020 and 2024, the gender gap across all ages was principally driven by men abandoning the Democratic Party.

Monty, a junior from deep-blue San Diego, said that students attending his private high school were “extremely left,” and typically surrounded by friends and family members of the same mindset. A strong impulse to activism also pervaded the halls, he added, attracting a number of his peers to Pride marches and No Kings rallies over the past year.

As Monty described it, the somewhat airless ideology of his school mirrored that of the larger progressive movement: Just as he’d periodically felt isolated during a long stretch of school assemblies commemorating the historic contributions of women and minority groups, a groundswell of “stranded people” were successfully targeted by the Trump campaign with identity-focused appeals.

“You have all these other groups represented, and then you have a generation of these young white males saying, ‘Okay, where am I in this equation? Because I’m not Black, I’m not a woman, I’m not LGBTQ, and I don’t know where I’m going to fit into this,’” Monty said.

Rachel Janfaza is an independent researcher who writes the newsletter The Up and Up, which aims to surface the attitudes of Gen Z for a national audience by convening focus groups and listening sessions around the United States. In an interview, she said Democrats had “fumbled” in 2024 with a critical group of potential male supporters.

“I don’t think the Republican Party necessarily set out to attract young men from the start, but the Democratic Party being so coded as being friendly to women made it hard for young men to see themselves in that party,” Janfaza said. “A lot of the men I spoke to who voted for Trump in 2024 felt like they were still not being messaged to by the Democratic Party.”

‘This system doesn’t benefit us’

Part of the difficulty in communicating to Gen Z is the fact that, beneath the level of partisan affiliation, its members’ perceptions of society and gender often differ significantly.

Nowhere is this clearer than in the respective views of men and women toward feminism, a cause that has continually gained public support since the 1960s. Women have always been more keen than men to accept the label of “feminist,” but a 2023 poll from AEI showed that over half of male Millennials said the term fit them personally; that figure was actually higher than the proportion of women from preceding generations who agreed with the description.

Yet far fewer of the youngest male respondents agreed. Zoomer men were only as likely as those in Gen X — a group more than twice their age — to call themselves feminists. Between that striking reversion and the leap in self-described feminism among younger women, Gen Z saw the widest gender gap on the issue of any age cohort.

In the same survey, 23 percent of Gen Z men said they had experienced gender-based discrimination, a nearly fourfold increase over the oldest men included in the sample. Women are also increasingly likely to express this belief, with half of all Gen Z females saying they’d been discriminated against (compared with just 38 percent of Boomer women).

Some fear that such sharp departures on fundamental questions will foment mutual resentment. Nathan, the New Jersey high schooler, said that boys his age were becoming embittered by a lack of recognition from the political left. In particular, he said that white males could be alienated from the Democratic Party in the same way that African Americans tossed aside their Republican allegiances in the 20th century.

“I think a similar situation is happening with young white men,” Nathan said. “They’re like, ‘This system, this establishment, doesn’t benefit us in any way. We have no stake in maintaining it.’”

Meanwhile, dramatic developments in the political realm can leave residue in the social one. The interpersonal relations of men and women are under greater strain than at any time in the past few decades, epitomized by a plummeting number of teenagers exploring romantic relationships. While almost 90 percent of high school seniors reported that they’d gone out on at least one date in 1987, according to a recent poll by the Institute for Family Studies, only about half said the same in 2024.

Competing partisanship seems to be at least partially responsible for the decline. A poll last year conducted by NPR and PBS News found that 60 percent of Zoomers agreed that it was “important to date or marry someone who shared your political views”; by contrast, 62 percent of respondents aged 60 or older said that politics didn’t carry much weight in matters of the heart. In a broader report published last year on the American dating scene, fully three-quarters of single women with a college degree said they would think twice before dating a Trump supporter.

Campbell, the Maine social studies teacher, said she had seen both sides of the dichotomy in her high school class. Girls are increasingly hesitant to pair off, or even socialize, with male classmates. Boys jokingly attack one another as “simps” — a slang term for men desperate for the attention of women — and have become “much more likely to push back” in class discussions of gender differences.

“There is almost a defensiveness in their attitude, as if I am trying to tell them they aren’t important and girls are,” Campbell wrote. “It is genuinely a shift that is concerning to me.”

Lily, who now attends high school in State College, Pennsylvania, didn’t address her dating life. But she opined that the apparently right-wing outlook expressed by some boys may simply reflect their wish to fit in — an instinct with which she sympathized.

“The same way we find ourselves in social situations where we’re pressured to join some clique, that’s present in our political positions too,” she said. “And guys experience that too. I just think they’re better at hiding it.”

What comes next?

Neither students, teachers, nor researchers could guess whether the gender gap would reverse with time or continue to grow.

In his sixth year in office, young women haven’t relented in their hostility for Donald Trump. In fact, it might be said that American women and the Democratic Party have become increasingly synonymous, both measurably more feminist, more liberal, and more credentialed than they were a generation ago. According to Gallup data, one out of every three Democrats is now a college-educated woman.

On the other hand, it is far from clear whether a sufficiently large number of today’s high school boys will reverse course and embrace the Democratic candidate in 2028. A recently released edition of the semi-annual Yale Youth Poll showed that 68 percent of voters aged 18–22 disapprove of Trump’s performance in office, a four-point increase since the previous fall; still, men in that age range actually became less favorable toward the Democrats during that same five-month span.

If national Republicans hope that disenchantment brings them an army of converts, they may find themselves disappointed. AEI’s Cox said the evidence from most polling and election results shows only that young men have become hostile toward Democrats — not that they have become doctrinaire conservatives.

“I’m not even sure they like the Republicans that much, honestly,” Cox said. “It’s not so much that they’re attracted to the whole GOP agenda — it’s that, between the two parties, they’re looking at which one seems more receptive to the concerns they have.”

Asher, visiting NLSC’s summer program from Pennsylvania’s solid-blue Delaware County, said he would have voted for the Democratic ticket in 2024 had he been old enough. The measured junior particularly came to admire Tim Walz after he was selected as Harris’s vice-presidential pick.

Yet he critiqued the way in which the party sought to woo men as “pandering,” including an affinity group launched to rally “White Dudes for Harris,” and Walz’s misused football lingo. (The Minnesota governor later disclosed that he saw his ability to “code talk to white guys” as one of his major contributions to the campaign.)

Nathan recalled an episode that saw Walz join Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a gaming session streamed on the popular service Twitch. “They had the most artificial attempts to win over men,” he marveled. “Tim Walz and AOC playing video games, and you could tell they weren’t actually playing. No one related to that!”

Asher — happy to number himself among the relatively scarce white dudes for Harris, albeit one without a vote — said he hadn’t personally felt excluded from political debates with left-leaning classmates, but acknowledged that such conversations sometimes hinged on participants’ personal “credibility” to speak on specific issues.

“I have seen that happen with people: ‘You don’t have female genitals, so you don’t get to have an opinion about abortion,’” he said.

The Up and Up’s Janfaza said that similar complaints are a hallmark of her listening sessions with college undergraduates. Many feel as though their sentiments, goals and desires are so diffuse that they are “talking past each other.”

“When I ask young men and women, ‘Do you see a gender divide in your community?’ they are so quick to tell me that they feel men and women are on different playing fields,” she said. “This isn’t fun for anyone.”

This story was produced by The 74, a non-profit, independent news organization focused on education in America.


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The post Gen Z’s Political Gender Divide Is Now Showing Up In Schools appeared first on DCReport.org.

In Virginia, the Moderate Position Is Removing the Supreme Court Justices

To return to the awful decision by the Virginia Supreme Court from last week, which in the era of Trump, was like a dozen awful things ago, what bothers me is the inability of Virginia Democrats to realize that the moderate position is removal of the Virginia Supreme Court judges, as there is a far more radical argument to just ignore the court’s decision*. The Virginia state constitution states:

whenever any government shall be found inadequate or contrary to these purposes, a majority of the community hath an indubitable, inalienable, and indefeasible right to reform, alter, or abolish it, in such manner as shall be judged most conducive to the public weal.

In other words:

…the People of Virginia have the right to change their system of government, entirely outside of any kind of amendment process established by law. That is what it means for this right of the People to be “inalienable”: it cannot be given away, and therefore cannot be limited by law. The process established in Article XII of the state constitution is one means by which the People of Virginia can rewrite their state’s fundamental laws. But, per Mason’s Declaration of Rights, they are not obliged to work through that process.

Even if we accept the state Supreme Court’s interpretation of the Article XII process, therefore, it shouldn’t matter. The fact that the People of Virginia approved the amendment, in the end, is all that matters. Even if the process by which the amendment was placed before them was deficient, the People still had the right to act in their capacity as the true sovereign. Alternately, we can understand the People—who, as sovereign, are also the supreme judge of their own state’s laws—as having rejected the very argument adopted by the state Supreme Court (which had already been made in advance of the referendum). Either way, the Court has wrongly usurped the ultimate sovereign power of the People of Virginia.

This requires an open clash between the multiple branches of government, and arguably might be a step too far for most elected officials. Moreover, it is not clear the majority of Virginians would agree.

The more moderate position is to say that, yes, according to the widely accepted rules (or norms), your horrible decision must stand, but it will be the last decision you get to make. They should be removed, not only to protect the Commonwealth of Virginia from further predations by a corrupt court, but to make it clear to the entire judicial system, not just Virginia’s, that they are not the ultimate branch of government–other branches can and will check their authority when the court misinterprets the constitution.

*Ironically, many of the people really pushing this argument are not the far left (even if Fox News et alia might call them that). One (more) divide in the Democratic coalition is around the willingness to use power.

Laurie Anderson Is Quoting Me

Not by name, but Laurie Anderson quotes me in one of the tracks of her new album:

My favorite quote is from a cryptologist who said “If you think technology will solve your problems, you don’t understand technology and you don’t understand your problems.”

Also in interviews:

“Of course, it’s ridiculous, outrageous, blah, blah, blah,” Anderson says about the ad. ‘But, I mean, my favorite quote on this is from a cryptologist who said, ‘If you think technology will solve your problems, you don’t understand technology ­ and you don’t understand your problems.’ And I think I’m completely on board with that.”

People are telling me that she has been reciting this quote in performances for years. (I lost track of her since college and her 1981 hit “O Superman.”)

The origins of the quote is from Roger Needham:

If you think cryptography can solve your problem, you don’t understand your problem and you don’t understand cryptography.

I modified the quote in the preface to my 2000 book Secrets and Lies:

A few years ago I heard a quotation, and I am going to modify it here: If you think technology can solve your security problems, then you don’t understand the problems and you don’t understand the technology.

I can’t tell you why me in 2000 didn’t credit Needham by name. I should have.

I have used the quote pretty consistently since then. Somewhere along the line I dropped “security” from the phrase, and now say it more like Anderson quotes me:

If you think technology will solve your problem, you don’t understand your problem and you don’t understand technology.

I sometimes use singular and sometimes use plural. Sometimes I say “the problem” and “the technology.” But I think the quote flows better ending with just the word “technology.”

Links 5/19/26

Links for you. Science:

F.D.A. Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe. The agency’s scientists and data contractors reviewed millions of patient records for studies that were pulled back before release.
Helium and the Strait of Hormuz
Babies Are Bleeding to Death as Parents Reject a Vitamin Shot Given at Birth
4,000-year-old tablets reveal magic spells, kings feared, and a beer receipt
Who is Nicole Saphier, Trump’s new nominee for US surgeon general?
It’s just words, Michael, what could they possibly cost? $456,832 direct?
Turns out the Alcatraz coyote didn’t swim from San Francisco, officials say. The National Park Service revealed the coyote is from Angel Island

Other:

Don’t Fall for the Tucker Carlson Apology Tour. The man telling the New York Times he’s sorry he supported Trump is the same man telling his brother last week that white Americans are the real victims.
Samuel Alito’s Voting Rights Act ruling cited misleading data from DoJ
Trump’s attempted golf course takeover threatens years of wildlife conservation
What A Day: What Autopsy? We got details about the DNC’s secret report into what went wrong in 2024.
Congress should keep its hands off D.C. traffic safety laws
Supreme Court gutted Voting Rights Act based on bullsh-t data
Zohran Mamdani: Muslim, Hindu, African, South Asian, New Yorker. How the mayor is navigating his identity – and how fellow desi New Yorkers feel about it.
‘Point of no return’: New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level, study finds
A hacker ran me over with a robot lawn mower. Forget robovacs — Yarbo’s bladed robots are an even bigger security nightmare.
Kash Patel ordered polygraphs of more than two dozen members of his team, sources say
Authorities scramble to limit hantavirus outbreak, trace contacts around globe. U.S. officials in at least five states — Arizona, California, Georgia, Texas and Virginia — are monitoring symptoms of seven returning passengers.
Trump Administration Limits Student Loans For Nurses, Therapists, PAs And More
Republicans Don’t Need to Win Elections Anymore. They Just Need Their Judges.
John Roberts Is Trying to Defend the Indefensible
Meta Is Dying. It’s About Time.
Why Lauren Sánchez Bezos Is Storming the Gates of the Met Gala
Trump’s Corruption Is Going to Sink Him. Conditions are right for voters to stop turning a blind eye to his greed, grift, and gold leaf.
Trump Is in His Ozymandias Era
The Confederacy rises again. Undoing the 1960s isn’t enough. They’re even taking aim at the 1860s.
How a Congressional Primary Became a Proxy Battle Over A.I.
The Corruption Is the Strategy. Donald is not hiding his market manipulation. He is normalizing it
‘Things were going dark left and right’: the race to save US government datasets before they’re deleted
Everyone Remembers Paul Revere’s Midnight Ride. But His Forgotten Race to Secure a Trove of Documents Reveals How Government Records Helped Win the War
Why DC’s Metro Wants to Automate its Trains. Driverless transit is increasingly common globally, but the plan to remove human operators from Washington, DC’s Red Line trains would be a US first.
Trump Library Saga Takes Dark Turn: Where Did Millions in Funding Go?
‘Hondurasgate,’ the alleged US and Israeli interference plot to destabilize Mexico and other progressive governments
The Congresswomen’s Pact: For the first time, twelve congresswomen reveal how they’re banding together after the Trump administration came for one of their own: Rep. LaMonica McIver.
The Trump administration is deleting government data. From infant deaths to hunger, here are 5 ways it’s hurting Americans
Did Amazon just deliver a blow to Josh Shapiro’s White House dreams?
How Immigrant Organizing Flipped Nixon’s Hometown

Reading the Ken Paxton-Trump Tea Leaves

You’ve seen the kind of stunning, kind of not stunning news that President Donald Trump has endorsed Ken Paxton for the GOP Senate primary runoff in Texas. Two months ago, Trump was on the cusp of endorsing Sen. John Cornyn, apparently already had the statement written out. Paxton rolled Trump and rolled him hard. The most obvious explanation for this is that the polling is showing that Cornyn is going to lose and Trump absolutely never wants to back a loser. It may be that. But I see something a little different. Trump has been taking out a lot of not-100% MAGA members of Congress. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is the latest example of that. There were those state senate holdouts in Indiana. It’s happened again and again. On that front, he feels like he’s on a roll. But it’s not just that either.

Look at that other big bit of Trump news: the stock trades. It hasn’t been totally clear in the news accounts, which understandably focus on the zany, absurd levels of corruption. But the trades are really, really recent. They’re very limited, relative to now, through 2025 and then they explode at the beginning of 2026. At least through the end of the first quarter, they just kept rocketing up. And that’s happened just as the bottom started to really fall out of his popularity.

Note that Renee Good and Alex Pretti were both killed in January of this year. His semi-decapitating raid in Venezuela came on January 3. He launched his Iran war on February 28.

There’s another thing. Some of these trades are quite large, in the millions of dollars and seemingly right in the face of big, market-making moves that Trump controlled. So the potential profits are really, really large, by the terms of ordinary mortals. But they still pale in comparison to the orders of magnitude more money that Trump is making with payola payments to his sham crypto, AI and media companies. Since retaking office, he’s made billions on those scams. These trades seem driven by something beyond mere accumulation. They’re instinctive, reactive, carnivorous, gobbling up cash on the table even when it’s neither needed nor even the most efficient way to grab dollars. He can is becoming the only permission structure on the path to he will.

To me they seem of a piece with his decisions in Venezuela and now Iran. I mentioned a few months ago that Trump seemed to be leaning into his all-but-unfettered war powers as a kind of unitary executive self-soothing to compensate for his ebbing popularity and thus power at home. The hyper-aggressive stock trading overlaps in time and seems to be of a piece with it. Trump seems to be in a kind of bust-out phase, realizing that his power is ebbing and you need to grab every dollar on the table, cross every line while it’s still possible. In the mobster bust-out mode, you sell off every piece of movable property until there’s nothing left and you just burn the place down. Look at the MAGA slush fund Trump has now set up to give cash bounties to his most loyal and violent supporters.

This may seem like I’m marrying together two very unlike things: Trump crashing out in terms of his popularity and political power but also on an electoral winning streak. But they’re two sides of the same coin. He is distilling the GOP congressional caucuses into ever-purer versions of MAGA, the uncut cocaine of MAGA. And that is happening as basically everyone else who is not a strongly identified MAGA Republican pulls away. So he’s tightening his grip on a dwindling base of support.

Everything we are seeing suggests Trump no longer cares about winning elections. If he were focused on that he wouldn’t keep doubling down on the most unpopular aspects of his presidency as the 2026 midterms near. But he does. Again and again.

Unpack the Funny, Surreal and Strange in US Politics and Culture With Us

As some of you may have seen on Saturday, we’ve made some changes to our Weekender newsletter. We want to use it as a space to step back from the 24-7 news cycle to reflect on What It All Means and write about some of the entertaining, strange, surreal elements of our politics and political culture that we don’t always get to cover on-site. (It’s the weekend, after all!) We’ve also introduced some recurring segments, including No Words (an image that captures the spirit of the week), From TPM’s Group Chat (social media posts that made the staff chuckle or raise an eyebrow), Trivia Time (a little mini news quiz) and more.

I’ll be leading up the new Weekender alongside our Head of Product Derick Dermaier, and you’ll also still regularly hear from our other editors and reporters, including the indefatigable Nicole LaFond, who often anchored the Weekender in the past. She’ll also be helming Where Things Stand for you Monday through Thursdays.

Please give me a shout at allegra@talkingpointsmemo.com if there are things you love/hate about the look or content of the new Weekender. 

And subscribe here to get it in your inbox on Saturday mornings!

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images the Crescent of Mars

1 Min Read

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images the Crescent of Mars

A slender, glowing crescent of Mars curves across the bottom of a completely black void, revealing its dusty reddish-orange surface and a thin, hazy blue atmospheric glow along the illuminated edge.
PIA26771
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

This view of a crescent Mars was captured on May 15, 2026, at about 5:03 a.m. PDT by NASA’s Psyche mission as it approached the planet for a gravity assist. Captured by the spacecraft’s multispectral imager instrument, this was the last view of the whole planet before it began to overfill the field of view of the camera.

Because Psyche approached Mars from a high phase angle, the planet appeared as a thin crescent in the days running up to the close approach, lit by sunlight reflecting off its surface. In observations from the spacecraft’s multispectral imagers, the crescent appeared brighter and extended farther around the planet’s disk than anticipated because of the strong scattering of sunlight through the planet’s dusty atmosphere.

The image was acquired with Imager A. It has been processed into a natural-color view (approximating what the human eye would see) using red, green, and blue data from imager filters.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post NASA’s Psyche Mission Images the Crescent of Mars appeared first on NASA Science.

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images Mars’ Huygens Crater

1 Min Read

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images Mars’ Huygens Crater

A false-color, top-down view of a Martian surface densely pockmarked with impact craters of various sizes, highlighted in vivid shades of blue, tan, and purple to differentiate geological materials.
PIA26775
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

Captured by the multispectral imager instrument on NASA’s Psyche mission, this is an enhanced-color view of the large double-ring crater Huygens (upper right; about 290 miles, or 470 kilometers, in diameter) and the surrounding heavily cratered southern highlands near 15 degrees south latitude. The various colors in this dramatic scene are likely due to differences in the compositional properties of dust, sand, and bedrock in this ancient terrain. The image scale is around 2,200 feet (670 meters) per pixel.

The image was acquired with Imager A on May 15, 2026, at about 1:18 p.m. PDT, shortly after closest approach with the planet. The images have been processed into an enhanced-color view (to bring out color details beyond what the human eye can see) using red, green, and blue data from imager filters.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post NASA’s Psyche Mission Images Mars’ Huygens Crater appeared first on NASA Science.

NASA’s Psyche Mission Spies Mars’ Wind-Blown Craters During Close Approach

1 Min Read

NASA’s Psyche Mission Spies Mars’ Wind-Blown Craters During Close Approach

An overhead view of a reddish-brown Martian landscape, heavily pockmarked with impact craters and covered in numerous parallel, wind-blown streaks stretching horizontally across the terrain.
PIA26774
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

This view of the Martian surface, captured by NASA’s Psyche spacecraft on May 15, 2026, shows streaks that have formed due to wind blowing over impact craters in the Syrtis Major region. The image scale is nearly 1,200 feet (360 meters) per pixel. The wind streaks extend to about 30 miles (50 kilometers) long, and the large craters near center-bottom of the scene average around 30 miles in diameter. 

The images have been processed into a natural-color view (approximating what the human eye would see) using red, green, and blue data from imager filters.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post NASA’s Psyche Mission Spies Mars’ Wind-Blown Craters During Close Approach appeared first on NASA Science.

Psyche’s High-Resolution View of Mars’ South Pole

1 Min Read

Psyche’s High-Resolution View of Mars’ South Pole

A close-up, greyscale image of the Martian surface, highlighting the intricate, swirling edges and dark troughs of a bright white polar ice cap next to surrounding plains textured with faint craters.
PIA26773
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

This is the highest-resolution view of the water ice-rich south polar cap of Mars captured by NASA’s Psyche mission after it made its close approach with the planet for a gravity assist. The image scale is around 0.7 miles per pixel (1.14 kilometers per pixel). The cap itself extends across more than 430 miles (700 kilometers). The image was acquired with Imager A on May 15, 2026, at about 1:53 p.m. PDT.

With Mars in the rearview mirror, the spacecraft will soon resume use of its solar-electric propulsion system to make a beeline to the main asteroid belt, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. When it arrives in August 2029, it will insert itself into orbit around the asteroid Psyche, which is thought to be the partial core of a planetesimal, a building block of an early planet.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post Psyche’s High-Resolution View of Mars’ South Pole appeared first on NASA Science.

NASA’s Psyche Mission Sees Mars’ South Pole After Flyby

1 Min Read

NASA’s Psyche Mission Sees Mars’ South Pole After Flyby

A greyscale view of the Martian globe against a black background, showcasing a brilliant white polar ice cap in sharp contrast with the planet's textured, cratered terrain.
PIA26772
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

This is Psyche’s first view of a nearly “full Mars” seen shortly after the spacecraft’s closest approach to the planet on May 15, 2026. The view extends from the south polar cap northwards to the Valles Marineris canyon system and beyond.

With Mars in the rearview mirror, the spacecraft will soon resume use of its solar-electric propulsion system to make a beeline to the main asteroid belt, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. When it arrives in August 2029, it will insert itself into orbit around the asteroid Psyche, which is thought to be the partial core of a planetesimal, a building block of an early planet.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post NASA’s Psyche Mission Sees Mars’ South Pole After Flyby appeared first on NASA Science.

Old space policy vs. new space policy

The emergence of firms like SpaceX and Blue Origin has made space a leading example of how private enterprise drives innovation, marking what many see as a sharp break between Old Space and New Space. Yet little systematic evidence documents when the transition to this new phase of space innovation occurred and which firms drove it. We use patent data to provide this measurement and find that the largest surge in space innovation occurred in the 1990s, coinciding with demand-side market creation, and preceding the entry of high-profile startups after 2005. Throughout this period and since, incumbent aerospace firms account for most of the space-related patenting, with entrants contributing a growing but minority share. The same geographic regions that dominated space innovation during the post-Apollo era remain dominant today. These patterns are consistent with directed technical change: incumbents direct R&D toward policy-created markets accessible from existing capabilities, while entrants bring science-based insights into domains requiring new paradigms. Our findings suggest that New Space is more closely connected to Old Space than prevailing narratives imply, and that government’s most consequential role in space innovation may lie in constructing appropriable markets. We make patent data on space-related technologies available for future research.

That is from a recent NBER working paper by Ruben Gaetani & Alexander T. Whalley.

The post Old space policy vs. new space policy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Why Upfront Costs Shouldn’t Stop You From Seeking Justice

The days following a roadway collision are filled with physical discomfort and a growing pile of bills. Many injured people feel hesitant to reach out for professional legal support because they worry about upfront costs. They assume that hiring a legal team requires a massive down payment or an expensive hourly rate.

This financial anxiety is incredibly common, but it often prevents victims from seeking the help they deserve. The civil justice system is designed to provide paths for recovery without forcing families into immediate debt. Grasping how representation works can ease these common fears.

Most advocates operate on a system that matches their success with your financial recovery. When research begins into how much do car accident lawyers charge in California , you will discover that immediate cash is rarely required.

The Power of Contingency Fees

A contingency fee agreement is a highly practical contract where the attorney agrees to work on your case without receiving any upfront hourly payments. Instead, they agree to take a pre-determined percentage of the final settlement or court award.

This specific structure ensures that your entire legal team is deeply motivated to secure the highest possible recovery for your losses. If they fail to resolve your case successfully, you do not owe them any attorney fees for their labor.

This system completely removes the financial barrier that often keeps injured individuals from fighting massive corporate insurance companies. It gives regular families the leverage needed to stand up against legal teams with unlimited budgets.

Distinguishing Fees from Case Expenses

It is vital to separate the actual attorney fees from the day to day expenses of building a personal injury case. Case costs include the bills paid to secure medical records, file court documents, or hire independent investigators.

Most dedicated legal offices will advance these necessary expenses during the active lifecycle of your claim. This means you do not have to pay out of your own wallet for these vital resources as the case moves forward.

Once a successful recovery is achieved, these advanced expenses are deducted from the final settlement along with the standard attorney fee. This arrangement ensures that your claim is fully supported without draining your personal savings during litigation.

Drafting the Representation Agreement

The specific percentage a legal professional receives is always discussed and agreed upon before any official work begins. This ensures complete transparency so that there are absolutely no surprise charges when your case eventually reaches a resolution.

This fee is formal and clearly written inside a standard representation agreement that you will sign at the start. The percentage can vary depending on whether the case is settled early or requires a formal lawsuit in court.

Having this clear contract protects your financial interests throughout the entire legal journey. It allows you to understand exactly how the recovery funds will be distributed long before any settlement checks are signed.

The Value of a Zero Risk Assessment

Most reputable injury advocates offer free initial consultations to discuss the unique details of your recent roadway collision. This meeting is an excellent opportunity to ask questions without facing any financial obligation or pressure.

During this assessment, a professional will analyze the facts of your crash to determine if you have a viable claim. They can offer valuable insights into your legal options and the potential value of your recovery.

Walking into a legal office for a free consultation costs you nothing but a small amount of your time. It empowers you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions about your financial future and recovery.

Conclusion

Seeking justice after a traumatic collision should never be a privilege reserved only for those who can afford expensive retainer fees. The contingency system ensures that every injured driver has equal access to quality representation.

Working with a dedicated advocate typically results in a much higher settlement than trying to negotiate with insurance companies on your own. Their knowledge and leverage far outweigh the percentage deducted at the end of the process.

Do not let the fear of initial costs prevent you from protecting your family and securing your long term health. Taking that first step allows you to hand over the stress while professionals fight for your complete recovery.

Photo: www.kaboompics.com via Pexels


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Tuesday assorted links

1.  AI-written story published in Granta, wins major literary prize.

2. JFV on smart phones as accelerators of fertility declines.

3. Maryland markets in everything.

4. Polling Chinese on a top one hundred books.

5. From the excellent Samir Varma, could alien drone probes decelerate in time?  And here is analysis from GPT.

6. “I am thrilled to announce the launch of Totei.com. Totei is a magazine devoted to craft and craftsmanship in all its forms. The name Totei comes from the ancient Japanese word for apprentice.”  From Gaurav Kapadia.

7. The young seem to like AI the least.

8. NYT obituary for Edmund Phelps.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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In addition to space stations, Vast says it will now build high-power satellites

As part of its plan to develop a private space station, Vast Space built and then launched a small demonstration spacecraft in early November. This vehicle then completed dozens of test objectives with flying colors before making a successful de-orbit three months later.

The mission, which tested power, propulsion, tracking, and a multitude of other technologies needed for Vast's Haven-1 space station, was evidently so successful that the company is ready to use its spaceflight capabilities for other purposes. The Long Beach, California-based company announced Tuesday that it plans to begin selling high-powered satellite buses.

"Every single successful space company is diversified in its products," said Max Haot, chief executive of Vast Space, in an interview. "So for us it really was a question of when, not if."

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WHO reports on the global growth of nicotine pouches

 The World Health Organization (WHO) has released a report written by Robert K. Jackler, Divya Ramamurthi and Cindy Chau (Stanford Research into the Impact of Tobacco Advertising), and Ranti Fayokun (Tobacco Free Initiative, Department of Health Determinants, Promotion and Prevention, WHO).

Exposing marketing tactics and strategies driving the global growth of nicotine pouches 

 

"Key messages of the report are:
• The global market for nicotine pouches is growing rapidly.
• Nicotine pouches can be highly addictive; furthermore, some have high concentrations of nicotine, and some increase the speed and intensity of nicotine delivery (e.g. “pearls technology”).
• Labelling of nicotine content is not standardized and can be confusing and misleading.
• Some nicotine pouch packaging mimics popular candy products and contain high nicotine levels. If they are ingested by children, they can pose a lethal risk.
• Nicotine pouches often contain various youth-appealing flavours (e.g. sweet, fruity, mint/menthol), such as Cherry Punch and Frosted Apple, and candy-like flavours (e.g. “bubble gum” and “gummy bears”), which are particularly attractive to children.
The flavours of numerous alcoholic drinks are also used, marketed as “After dark”.
• Nicotine pouches often promote high-intensity nicotine and flavours with slogans such as “nicotine like never before” and visual depictions of the user experiencing a cooling effect.

• Nicotine pouches are aggressively marketed and promoted to young people.
– They are heavily advertised on youth-frequented social and digital media platforms, including through influencers.
– They are frequently promoted with youthful themes, including fun times with friends, romance and sports.
– They are often promoted for “discreet” or stealthy use, making it difficult to detect by parents or teachers, and as a way of breaking the rules.
– Manufacturers of nicotine pouches commonly sponsor youth-oriented events, where nicotine pouches and branded merchandise are distributed by attractive, young “brand ambassadors”.
• Nicotine pouch advertisements often use the tobacco industry’s “playbook” for marketing conventional tobacco products, such as cigarettes, including:
– “lifestyle marketing” and “identity marketing”, the message sometimes portraying how a consumer wishes to be perceived by others;
– depictions of nicotine pouches as “modern” and “high-tech”; and
– portrayal of nicotine pouches as boosting energy when the user is tired and helping the user to relax when stressed. Marketers call this “elasticity of meaning”, depicting the product as something that works for everyone in any situation.
• Nicotine pouch manufacturers market and associate their brands with holidays (e.g. Christmas) and cultural symbols (e.g. patriotism) to evoke happy times and celebrations.
• Messaging in nicotine pouch advertisements can appear contradictory, expressing opposing views; however, this is carefully crafted and tailored to different target groups, such as:
– co-marketing of a nicotine pouch brand with promotion of a flagship cigarette (or other tobacco) brand, while also marketing of nicotine pouches and conveying anti-cigarette messaging (e.g. “goodbye smoke smell”).
• Nicotine pouches are marketed with unsubstantiated claims that they aid smoking cessation and/or in ways that undermine quit attempts.
• Nicotine pouches are often promoted as a product for “Anytime, Anywhere”, with images of places in which smoking is not allowed. This marketing tactic can encourage dual use, hinder cessation attempts and undermine regulations prohibiting smoking or use of other tobacco and related products in public places.
• There is insufficient national action, whereby nicotine pouches commonly fall through regulatory gaps and thus either un- or lightly regulated.
• WHO calls for a comprehensive approach to tobacco control, covering the full spectrum of tobacco and related products, including nicotine pouches, and closing regulatory loopholes. "

Barely Treading Water

Carolyn, my chief of staff, sat on the couch as I ran into my office. The Palo Alto building wasn’t built for tech; it’d been adapted to support the use case over the years. My office was in the center of the building, which had an inner atrium. Way too many windows. Maybe a salon? Great light. We arranged the furniture for 1:1s. A comfy brown couch, a captain’s chair, and a table with a plant that I enjoyed keeping alive.

I was running late because the prior meeting ran long, and I had a mere five minutes before the next. Her normal high energy was subdued. Her feet were crossed, and her ever-present legal notepad was nowhere to be seen.

This is bad news, I thought.

“I have bad news,” she said.

I collapsed into the leather captain’s chair. “OK, spill. Beer bash was last night, and… someone’s in jail? Someone quit? Food poisoning in the cafeteria? Maybe it’s…”

“It’s you.”

Quick readout on my professional report card before I explain how I was failing. The company was growing. We were hiring effectively. The last survey of employee sentiment highlighted a few areas where we needed to invest, but nothing was on fire. Yes, late-stage start-up, so the volatility was high, but that’s a cost of doing business. The measurable objectives were all positive.

“It’s me?”

“It’s you,” she said.

Belief is a Funny Thing

Hard to earn, easy to lose. Often privately held, but publicly displayed. Belief, when it comes to your job, is the immeasurable answer to the question they ask, “Is he capable of doing this job?” They don’t judge every word or act, but every so often, they stop and ask themselves, “Is he capable of doing this job?”

A simpler way to understand this amorphous state: when I hand a job to another person, I instantly mentally grade them on all past tasks. How do I feel they’ve delivered on past work? Great? OK. No further questions. It’ll just happen. Wait, they did it with prodding? OK, I’ll need to nudge them a bit. They completely forgot that part that one time? Yikes. This task may not be completed. Plan appropriately. The glory of having a brain is that I make snap judgments in an instant. The problem with having a brain is that if I’ve landed on a reliable opinion for this human, it’s quite hard to change.

“I’m the problem?”

Carolyn said, “You’re the problem.” And then she slid the yellow legal pad from under the couch and started reading the list.

It was a juicy list. She’d heard from a trusted source that there was trouble brewing for me the week before and had spent part of each day talking to trusted others she knew would speak the truth. She’d dispelled the rumors and had landed on a set of observations from the last six months that painted a picture not only of imminent failure, but of barely treading water.

High on Your Own Supply

This situation arises due to a conflict in strategy. Senior Leaders set direction. Loudly, they exclaim, “We will do the impossible. I believe we can do it.” Important to note: They don’t actually know how to complete this impossible task. That’s your job. Their job is to inspire to tackle the challenge.

Problem is, when it comes to a failing senior leader, we attempt the same move: “I can do the impossible. I believe I can do it.” Like above, I don’t actually know how to do this; I’m using the same motivational technique, except the person I’m attempting to motivate is me. And I’m barely treading water.

Having been in this state a few times, I can name the signs:

  1. I have to-dos to fix to-dos, or, equally possible, my to-do list is becoming stale because of a lack of attention.
  2. I’m adding complexity to everything I touch. Or being unnecessarily clever in order to get something done. Which creates more work.
  3. The number of prequalified complex disasters showing up on my plate is increasing.
  4. When someone else asks about tasks they care about on my list, I keep apologizing and inventing new deadlines.
  5. People are no longer volunteering to help.
  6. Inbound questions are increasingly inbound critiques.

And then Carolyn shows up and tells you that you are the problem.

Leaders Fail

The first fix is a prerequisite for the other three. You have to admit you are failing, and while that is easy to write, it’s close to impossible to admit because you irrationally believe, “Leaders don’t fail.”

Of course we do. Constantly. Like, close to half the time. But the reason you irrationally believe this is that you’ve been drinking the leadership juice, which gives you the intoxicating impression that leaders must lead by example, and that means — no failure.

You fail. A lot. Most of the best lessons that define you as a leader came from these failures. The process of failing, learning, and improving is the example you want to see, and that means starting by telling someone you know who can help:

“Carolyn, I agree. I am failing, and we need to make changes.”

Carolyn’s posture immediately relaxed because she knew what I’m telling you now: “This only works if he admits there is a problem.”

Carolyn: “Great. What changes?”

With the required hard part out of the way, here are three fixes:

Prioritize with Trusted Other(s)

The important part of this first fix is not the prioritization; it’s the second set of eyeballs that you bring into the mix. See, the whole reason you’re in this state is that you are failing at prioritization. It’s not complete failure. If you’re like me in this state, then you’re furiously skipping along the top of the water, touching down every so often to barely start helping with one obvious thing right in front of you before you skip away to the next.

The requirements for this second set of eyeballs are:

  • You trust this person, which means…
  • They will say the hard thing and…
  • You’ll listen to them when they do.

Please reread and consider each of those prior three bullets because I am describing a human being who will be invaluable throughout your professional career. You done? Have you thought of someone? Good. Whew.

With our trusted other identified, you’re going to walk them through the honest capture of every single critical item on your to-do list. Don’t hide the ones that scare you; share them all because that’s the only way you’ll have a chance of digging yourself out of the hole.

How to prioritize? This is entirely dependent on you, your job, the company, the culture, and that moment in time, but I have one piece of advice for you and your trusted other: be honest and be brutal. This is not the prioritization of a single human’s work; this is an evaluation of the health of the entire team. As a senior leader, much of your to-do list directly affects your team’s ability to do their job. You will improve team health by getting your to-do list in shape.

A good starter question: “Is this important?”1 Yes? Leave it on the list. No? Put it on the No list. We’ll talk about the No list shortly.

Second question for the first list: “Can I get this done in a reasonable time?” Yes? Leave it on the list. No? Put it on a new second list.

Moment of truth: how many items are on the second list? If it’s not two-thirds of your original list, someone is lying to someone. Either your trusted someone isn’t giving it to you straight, or you’re lying to yourself. If you actually want to fix this situation, my advice is to go through this initial prioritization once more. I’ve picked that two-thirds number out of the hat, but the reason we are here is that you and your team are not currently capable of getting through the work on your plate, and if you moved 10% of your current work to the No list, you’re lying to yourself.

The second list now consists of urgent tasks that you are not capable of completing. Good news: you have a team, and chances are they are eager to grow, and you have a well-defined list where you can…

Delegate to as Many Other Humans As Possible

This is the article where I, once again, preach delegation. For this version of the sermon, I’ve set you up. You have a list in hand of pre-qualified work that your team is eager to tackle. Your second list is a collection of must-complete tasks, and in order to be successful, you must give these urgent tasks to someone else.

New managers are challenged by delegation because they have to give up the work they were recently doing. It’s a core scaling skill. Both understanding the importance of giving the work away and deciding who is ready to tackle a task. The process is similar for senior managers, except for the blast radius of the work. This isn’t work that affects a person; it has a team or possibly a company impact. That’s why it’s on your list… not getting done.

Let’s look at your second list, the Delegate list. As you stare at this list, wondering who can do what, it is normal to think, “Yeah, I don’t think he’s ready to handle this.” I’m here to tell you to ignore this possibly reasonable perception. Yes, they currently lack the experience to handle the task, but what is the current alternative? Nothing. The task — not completed. That’s complete failure.

The act of delegation is a leap of faith. Yes, chances are they are not ready for it, but:

  • They get to learn,
  • You get to coach them,
  • You demonstrate trust by giving them work you know is beyond their means.

And, oh yeah, something more than nothing will occur. Bonus!

So, where are we? Prioritized into two lists: my list and a list of potential delegations. Chances are, there are still items on the second list with no delegate. Now, it’s time to…

Say No

There’s a compelling reason this item is still on your list. After the prioritization pass and delegation pass, it’s still sitting there pulsing with importance, but if you’ve done a respectable job of the prior two passes, I am here to tell you it’s time to say no to this task.

“But Rands, this was a passdown from the VP, and if I don’t do it, I’m in deep…”

No.

“You don’t get it, this is a critical project that needs to be completed or else…”

No. You have neither the time nor the team to complete it.

“Just give me another day. I’ll prioritize again, and then I’m sure we…”

No. Leadership, especially senior leadership, is about making the hard call. You have:

  • Been alerted to impending doom,
  • Carefully prioritized your work, and are now,
  • Delegating as best you can.

No is progress. Without a no, you have Schrödinger’s Decision. A set of work which is neither begun nor finished. By saying no, you are telling those depending on this work that they need to develop alternative plans. Before no, they were waiting… wondering if you were ever going to be done.

Yes. When you declare “No,” someone important might remind you that “No” is an unacceptable answer. This is not a problem; this is valuable data. What are you going to do? Prioritize, delegate, and say no to something else.

It’s Me

Hour three. Dark now. Carolyn and I sat on the floor of my office, surrounded by pages of her yellow legal pad. Two whiteboards were covered with the lists: the Rands list, the Delegate list, the No list, and the Not Real list2.

Voices had been raised.

Me: “I have to do this.”

Her: “Yes, you do, but these 10 items are vastly more important.”

Me: “Charles isn’t ready for it.”

Her: “How do you know unless he tries?”

We’d workshopped the No list. Who needed to hear the no? What were they likely going to say? What were we going to say then? What were the first items on the Rands list that we’d swap with a vetoed No? The Delegate list similarly litigated. In this case, it was clear I did not have enough direct reports who we believed were ready for showtime, so we started a reorganization conversation. Yes, it went on a list. Yes, it created most items for the Rands list. Yes, it meant more Nos.

Carolyn countered my optimism with measured reality. The Rands list felt unimpressively short, but we both knew halfway through that list, more work would show up, and in the face of the new work, we needed to make it clear to everyone that I was capable of doing my job… all of it.

  1. Important not urgent
  2. A key aspect of the trusted other is their fresh perspective. In Carolyn’s case, she was able to point out items on my to-do list that were not real. They were worries, not tasks. Thanks, Carolyn. I miss you.

Repugnant Economics

I spoke on a panel at AEI with Nobelist Al Roth about his new book, Moral Economics, which covers “repugnant markets,” from prostitution to surrogacy to kidney exchange. A fun book!

My case study was acting. Acting was considered repugnant for over 2,000 years. In Rome, actors could not vote, hold office, or be trusted to give an oath in legal proceedings. So why don’t we find acting repugnant today?

One lesson: weighing costs and benefits is not enough. Roth discusses empirical research showing that legalizing prostitution cut STDs and sexual assaults—against prostitutes and others. But evidence alone won’t shift a repugnance norm. You also have to reframe the activity. Acting, for example was reframed from body rental to a skill requiring intelligence, training and ability. So I went out of my way to say that I am a fan of Aella—though not her only fan—and that I see no reason why escorting should not be considered a skill, requiring intelligence, training, and ability. I can think of few better ways of raising social welfare than making sex 10% better!

I also spoke on human challenge trials. Roth and I agree: challenge trials could have sped up COVID vaccines and saved tens of thousands of lives. We should be angry this didn’t happen. Why didn’t it? Even though most people think human challenge trials are a good idea, there was a repugnance bottleneck because the minority who did find human challenge trials repugnant were in charge. I discuss how to change this.

Al leads the discussion. My comments start at 25:15.

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Maritime China

Painting of a naval battle with numerous ancient ships, surrounded by mountains and turbulent waters.

Far from turning its back on the sea, the fate of Qing China was tied as much to tides and storms as to cavalry and walls

- by Ron Po

Read on Aeon

All non-drone militaries are obsolete

Drone warfare has been a fascination of mine for a very long time. When I read Daphne du Maurier’s “The Birds” as a kid, I imagined what would happen if the attacking swarms were mechanical birds, controlled with AI. When I read about Japanese kamikazes in WW2, I reasoned that someday we’d have drones do the same. In 2013, I wrote a post about the advent of drone warfare that’s still probably the most prophetic thing I’ve ever written. It simply made sense that if we could create AI-controlled swarms of exploding artificial insects, then as long as they had enough battery power to sustain themselves over long flights, they’d be an unstoppable weapon.

Thirteen years later, my imagination has mostly become reality. Batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to sustain long drone flights, and AI has gotten good enough to guide drones to their targets (and, often, to select the targets in the first place). All we need now to fulfill my vision is for AI to start autonomously directing large numbers of drones in concert. That’s coming very soon.

The Ukraine War isn’t the first war in which drones are proving decisive — that would be the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 — but it’s the war in which drones have truly come into their own. Ukraine’s intensive use of drones has allowed them to inflict casualty rates as high as 5 to 1 on the Russian army in recent months, while giving up little or no territory. Around 96% of those casualties are estimated to be caused by drones. In just the past year, Ukraine went from using just a few thousand FPV drones per day to using around 60,000.

You can read lots of stories about how drones represent a revolution in military affairs; the recent Carnegie Endowment piece is a good one, as is the slightly older one by the Army University Press. But to really viscerally understand how deeply things have changed, you have to watch videos from the war. Here is a montage of drone strikes in Ukraine, including a terrifying final sequence where a drone flies into a Russian barracks and destroys it. It’s difficult stuff to watch, but if you want to understand the changes that have come to modern warfare, you have to see it.

The age of the human infantryman is rapidly drawing to a close. Simply surviving an FPV drone attack has become an almost impossible task for soldiers on the battlefield. The drone cordon has not yet become so airtight that territory can be held without humans, but these humans’ job is to hide out in dugouts for months at a time alone or in tiny groups, terrified of emerging above ground lest they be instantly droned. And ground robots are developing very quickly, to the point where assaults can sometimes be conducted without humans on the front line at all.

Drones are also slowly replacing bombers and missiles as a modern military’s primary tool for conducting long-range strikes. Russia has been pounding Ukrainian cities with Iranian-made “Shahed” drones for years, but Ukraine is now fighting back. Ukrainian drones regularly destroy Russia’s oil infrastructure and military supply lines. And Moscow was just hit by over 1000 Ukrainian drones, causing widespread damage and chaos:

To understand the changes that drones are bringing to modern warfare, I went on the Latent Space podcast with Yaroslav Azhnyuk, founder and CEO of The Fourth Law, one of Ukraine’s most important drone startups. Here’s the video and the transcript:

Latent.Space
The Next War Is Already Here. The West Isn't Ready. — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Guest Host Noah Smith, Noahpinion
The future of war has been evolving before our eyes in Ukraine, yet the west still plans to fight the last war. In this special episode, guest host Noah Smith (@noahpinion) and Brandon Anderson sit down with…
Listen now

And here’s a YouTube version, if you prefer:

My interview with Azhnyuk clarified exactly why drones are in the ascendant as the universal modern weapon of war. The reason is cost. Drones are simply so cheap to produce in huge numbers that they can overwhelm any more expensive system.

Here’s Azhnyuk:

The CEO of Rheinmetall, recently sort of ridiculed [the] Ukrainian drone industry, saying that…there is nothing interesting there, no real innovation…One of the best quotes I heard on this topic is from my friend Alexey Babenko, who’s the head of and founder of VIARI Drone, which is one of the largest manufacturers of FPV drones. They’re our partner. They’re using our autonomy. So he said that the drones we manufacture in one day will be more than enough to destroy all the tanks Rheinmetall manufactures in a year…Cost-wise, of course, a drone is like, $500 and a Rheinmetall tank is what, probably 5 million-ish or maybe more…

An artillery shell for 155 caliber…is about $4,000 per piece. So compare that to say, $400 per drone. That’s 10 times more expensive. Account for the amortization of the artillery gun and for how vulnerable it is and what is the sort of tactical capabilities it gives you as compared to a drone. You’ll figure out that an FPV drone is maybe three orders of magnitude, more versatile, more useful, more capable than artillery…Basically, I think a good way to think about an FPV drone is like an iPhone of warfare. [emphasis mine]

People also don’t seem to understand how much AI is now controlling these drones. Azhnyuk and his company have been instrumental in this shift:

Instead of actually [having] a trained pilot who has this complex remote controller device which requires a couple months of training to actually pilot the drone, and then having to pilot it for 30 minutes, flying towards the target, etc., etc., now you…have a drone, you pick [up] your smartphone, you say, “We are here. The bad guys are here. Go and get them.” And the drone goes up, flies in a given direction, localizes itself on the map, finds the dedicated area where they, the bad guys are supposed to be, sees the bad guys, bombs them, return…watches…does a damage assessment, returns back, sits down, and then you can pick it up and watch the video[.]

In my experience, a lot of people — especially in America — still tend to dismiss the power of drones. Until recently, people would insist that electronic warfare would blast drones out of the sky. That excuse has mostly disappeared now that drone technology has found ways around EW (autonomy, fiber-optics, etc.). Now, you see people insisting that soldiers can shoot drones out of the sky with shotguns:

In fact, shotguns are probably a soldier’s best defense against drone attack. But “best” doesn’t mean “good”. Even if you have a shotgun, a drone will probably get you. Here’s Azhnyuk:

[A shotgun is] the main weapon that people use against [drones]…there are…hundreds, maybe thousands of cases of drones being shot down with shotguns…both by Ukrainians and Russians…I was talking to some Ukraine pilot group, and they told me like there was this Russian guy. He was just like Rambo…He shot down like seven FPV drones. They couldn’t…get him. They finally got him, but it was like nothing they’ve seen before, right?…Average non-Rambo will just die.

In case you have any doubt, here’s a video of people trying to shoot down attacking FPV drones with shotguns. It doesn’t go well.

What about lasers? A lot of people think that in the near future, laser weapons will operate as a sort of bug zapper, clearing the sky of drones and returning us to the age of maneuver warfare. That might happen, but Azhnyuk is highly skeptical. He recounted a conversation he had with the maker of an anti-drone laser:

I’m like, “Okay, 10 kilowatt laser, tell me about it…Okay, cool. How much time does it take to take down an FPV drone?” And [the manufacturers are] like, “Well, maybe three seconds.” I’m like, “three seconds. That’s like a lot of time. But okay, maybe fine. And what if [the] FPV drone tries to evade, right?” And he’s like, “Well, we will retarget it again.” And it’s like, “And then three seconds start again?” “Yeah.” “Okay. Well, can it take down like a dozen FPV drones?” They’re like, “Yeah, for sure.” I’m like, “Okay, a dozen FPV drones, 30 seconds? Maybe, yes. Two kilometers? Maybe yes, maybe no.” And I’m like, “Okay, how much does it cost?” And he said something like $3 million or something like that. I’m like, “Okay, $3 million. So that is 6,000 FPV drones…I doubt this thing will be able to handle 6,000 FPV drones or even 600 FPV drones coming at it at the same time.” So you have this kind of economic.

Lasers will probably be part of a layered defense that guards strong points against drones, alongside nets, various types of guns, etc. But essentially everything other than drones costs lots of money.

This is why the drone is the supreme weapon of the modern battlefield. It’s simply an incredibly cheap smart bullet.

As of today, every military that is not centered around drones is obsolete. Here’s a story from February about NATO realizing that its militaries are obsolete:

Russia and Ukraine have shown the world the future of warfare—and America and its allies aren’t ready for it. That’s the lesson of a major exercise that North Atlantic Treaty Organization members conducted in Estonia last May…The exercise, known as Hedgehog 2025, involved more than 16,000 troops from 12 NATO countries who drilled alongside Ukrainian drone experts, including soldiers borrowed from the front line…

During one scenario, a battle group of several thousand troops, including a British brigade and an Estonian division, sought to conduct an attack. As they advanced, they failed to account for how drones have made the battlefield more transparent, several sources say…The NATO battle group was “just walking around, not using any kind of disguise, parking tents and armored vehicles,” recalls one participant, who played an enemy role. “It was all destroyed.”…

A single team of some 10 Ukrainians, acting as the adversary, counterattacked the NATO forces. In about half a day they mock-destroyed 17 armored vehicles and conducted 30 “strikes” on other targets…

Overall, the results were “horrible” for NATO forces, says [Aivar] Hanniotti, who now works in the private sector as an unmanned systems expert. The adversary forces were “able to eliminate two battalions in a day,” so that “in an exercise sense, basically, they were not able to fight anymore after that.” The NATO side “didn’t even get our drone teams.”…

[T]oo many NATO members continue to show “a fundamental lack of understanding of the modern battlefield” and train their soldiers “based on doctrines and manuals that are not adapted to today’s realities,” says Maria Lemberg of the Ukrainian nonprofit Aerorozvidka…Multiple sources told the story of one commander, who observed the drill and concluded, “We are f—.”

Two years ago, it was clear that in a direct confrontation, the U.S. military would walk all over Russia’s clumsy, outdated post-Soviet army. Now, the reverse is probably true; the Ukraine War has forced the Russian army to learn how to fight with drones, while America is still mostly inexperienced with the new kind of warfare. Russia may not be quite as good at drone war as the Ukrainians, but the U.S. has so far made only incremental changes to how it fights. If the U.S. were to fight Russia today, it would be in for a rude surprise.

Of course, the same is true of China. Its military, like America’s, is still focused mainly on expensive high-performance platforms — aircraft carriers, hypersonic missiles, submarines, and so on. But there’s one big difference between China and the U.S. here — China’s peerless industrial base would give it the ability to construct an overwhelming drone-based force very quickly, while America’s withered industrial base would make it impossible to adapt in time.

I wrote about this last year:

In our interview, Azhnyuk said something very similar:

Last year, Ukraine produced 4 million FPV drones. Ukraine is not the most industrious nation in the world. China can produce 4 billion of these FPV drones…China can [also] make…fixed-wing drones, which go not forty kilometers far, but maybe two to three hundred kilometers inland…

They can also make them all fully autonomous. They have DJI, the world’s most advanced drone company. They can make them fully autonomous without GPS, without anything. Then they can put those drones on maybe tens of thousands of fully autonomous underwater submarines, or maybe not even that just on shipping containers and barges that ship goods or freight ships. And then they show up with millions of drones packed onto those sea vessels. They show up to any coastline in the world, be it Taiwan or be it California, and they have millions of long-range impactors targeted at a piece of land.

Here’s a quick snapshot of which countries make drones:

Source: Quasa

Interestingly, the U.S. is still #2 here — albeit a distant second. But worryingly, the U.S.’ traditional allies — Germany, Japan, France, Korea, etc. — make very few drones at all.

Even if they want to, the U.S. and its allies will have an incredibly hard time scaling up indigenous drone production. The reason is that drones are built using a set of technologies that the U.S. and its allies have mostly decided to forfeit to China. Drones use lithium-ion batteries and rare earth electric motors, both of which are almost entirely manufactured in China.

I warned about this in a post last September:

With its control of lithium-ion battery production, rare earth refining, and electric motor manufacturing, China has nearly monopolized the physical technologies that are at the core of the supreme weapons of the modern battlefield. And because China has also monopolized the manufacturing of EVs and electronics — the main commercial downstream technologies that use batteries and electric motors at scale in peacetime — they will be able to outbuild any country whose main demand for drone components comes from the peacetime military.

This should terrify everyone in the U.S. government, and the governments of India, Germany, France, Japan, Korea, Poland, the UK, Australia, and so on. Thanks to its control of electric components, China is now capable of manufacturing a drone armada that can easily outmatch that of every other country on the planet combined, if it wants to. And except for Ukraine, Russia is now the only country on Earth that has first-hand experience of how to fight a modern drone war. The democratic countries are laid bare and helpless before the armies of the autocratic powers, if the latter should choose to attack.

Realizing the truth — that we are in the Drone Era — is only the first step in correcting this fatal vulnerability. We must build an indigenous independent supply chain for the manufacture not just of drones, but of everything that goes into a drone. If we don’t do that, then the NATO commander from the recent military exercise is right: “We are f—.”


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“Wokeness has peaked. What followed is worse.”

That is the topic of my latest column for The Free Press.  Excerpt:

It is important to distinguish between the positive side of wokeism and the unreasonable side. The positive side supported gay rights and discouraged racism in the public sphere. The unreasonable side brought us cancel culture, stifled discussion, insisted on very particular views of race and gender identity, boosted DEI and other race-discriminatory policies, and generally made America a more intolerant place. It was most of all about who had the right to steer the agenda of public discourse, and who had the right to push out dissenters.

The unreasonable side, since it was about power and control, had negative vibes built into its core. Fortunately, American society pushed back against many of the most objectionable manifestations of those negative vibes, but did we get rid of the negative vibes themselves? I do not think so. The American people still seem pretty low in trust, unhappy with America’s position in the world, glum about the economy and cost of living, and increasingly skeptical of both AI and billionaires. That is all happening at a time when the American economic situation, while mixed, is by no means as terrible as it was in, say, 2009. Happiness and mental health seem to be lagging behind the country’s actual achievements.

So what has been happening? The forces behind wokeism no longer command so much public attention and respect when they argue about terms and pronouns. Instead, left-adjacent movements have arisen with a contrasting emphasis on action, and often action of a terrible sort. California is considering, for instance, an unworkable tax on billionaires in the state, one that even most left-leaning Democratic politicians do not support. It might nevertheless pass through via referendum…

What’s more, it is possible we are entering an era with a new culture of assassinations. There have been assassinations of Charlie Kirk, of healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, and several attempts on the life of President Trump. It can be debated how many of these killers had direct connections to the political left, but it is hard to avoid the conclusion that left-wing rhetoric about democracy destruction helped make such actions conceivable.

The social energies of the American left have moved away from the realm of speech and into plans for concrete action, whether in politics, through attempted wealth confiscations, or through organizing violence. In retrospect, wokeism, for all its problems, was a relatively harmless way of distracting activists and keeping them  Negative busy with wars over words—a less-bad allocation of social energies than what we are now seeing. So while I would not say I long for the return of high wokeism, I recognize it has been replaced by a left-adjacent movement that is worse.

Worth a ponder, do read the whole thing.  I should note I do not let the right off the hook either, though the column is mainly about what has succeeded Wokeism.  Negative emotional contagion has affected both the left and right wings today.  Here is one simple case in point.

The post “Wokeness has peaked. What followed is worse.” appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

I put together these annotated slides from my five minute lightning talk at PyCon US 2026, using the latest iteration of my annotated presentation tool.

The last six months in LLMs in
five minutes

Simon Willison - simonwillison.net

PyCon US 2026 Lightning Talk
#

I presented this lightning talk at PyCon US 2026, attempting to summarize the last six months of developments in LLMs in five minutes.

The November inflection point
#

Six months is a pretty convenient time period to cover, because it captures what I've been calling the November 2025 inflection point. November was a critical month in LLMs, especially for coding.

The “best” model changed hands 5 times
between Anthropic, OpenAl and Google
#

For one thing, the supposedly "best" model (depending mostly on vibes) changed hands five times between the three big providers.

Generate an SVG of a
pelican riding a bicycle
#

As always, I'm using my Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle test to help illustrate the differences between the models.

Why this test? Because pelicans are hard to draw, bicycles are hard to draw, pelicans can't ride bicycles... and there's zero chance any AI lab would train a model for such a ridiculous task.

Five pelicans, one for each of the following models. Varying qualities!
#

At the start of November the widely acknowledged "best" model was Claude Sonnet 4.5, released on 29th September. It drew me this pelican.

In November it was overtaken by GPT-5.1, then Gemini 3, then GPT-5.1 Codex Max, and then Anthropic took the crown back again with Claude Opus 4.5.

I think Gemini 3 drew the best pelican out of this lot, but pelicans aren't everything. Most practitioners will agree that Opus 4.5 held the crown for the next couple of months.

The coding agents got good
#

It took a little while for this to become clear, but the real news from November was that the coding agents got good.

OpenAI and Anthropic had spent most of 2025 running Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards to increase the quality of code written by their models, especially when paired up with their Codex and Claude Code agent harnesses.

In November the results of this work became apparent. Coding agents went from often-work to mostly-work, crossing a quality barrier where you could use them as a daily-driver to get real work done, without needing to spend most of your time fixing their stupid mistakes.

Screenshot of "Initial commit" on GitHub to steipete/Warelay, commit f6dd362, steipete authored on Nov 24, 2025

It's a copy of the MIT license
#

Also in November, this happened - the first commit to an obscure (back then) repo called "Warelay" by some guy called Pete.

December/January
(A little bit of LLM psychosis)
#

Over the holiday period, from December to January, a whole lot of us took advantage of the break to have a poke at these new models and coding agents and see what they could do.

They could do a lot! Some of us got a little bit over-excited. I had my own short-lived bout of a form of LLM psychosis as I started spinning up wildly ambitious projects to see how far I could push them.

micro-javascript playground
Execute JavaScript code in a sandboxed micro-javascript environment powered by Pyodide

var numbers = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10];
var doubled = numbers.map(n => n * 2);
console.log('Doubled: "', doubled);
var evens = numbers.filter(n => n % 2 === 0);
console.log('Evens: ', evens);
var sum = numbers.reduce((a, b) => a + b, @);
console.log('Sum:", sum);

Output 27
Doubled: [2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20]
Evens: [2, 4, 6, 8, 10]
Sum: 55
Execution time: 8.00ms
About: micro-javascript is a pure Python JavaScript interpreter with configurable memory and time limits. This playground runs entirely in your browser using
Pyodide (Python compiled to WebAssembly). View on GitHub
#

One of my projects was a vibe-coded implementation of JavaScript in Python - a loose port of MicroQuickJS - which I called micro-javascript. You can try it out in your browser in this playground.

JavaScript running in Python running in Pyodide running in WebAssembly running in JavaScript
#

That playground demo shows JavaScript code run using my micro-javascript library, in Python, running inside Pyodide, running in WebAssembly, running in JavaScript, running in a browser!

It's pretty cool! But did anyone out there need a buggy, slow, insecure half-baked implementation of JavaScript in Python?

They did not. I have quite a few other projects from that holiday period that I have since quietly retired!

February 2026
#

On to February. Remember that Warelay project that had its first commit at the end of November?

Warelay → CLAWDIS → CLAWDBOT →
Clawdbot → Moltbot →🦞 OpenClaw
#

In December and January it had gone through quite a few name changes... and by February it was taking the world by storm under its final name, OpenClaw.

The amount of attention it got is pretty astonishing for a project that was less than three months old.

Generic term: Claw
#

OpenClaw is a "personal AI assistant", and we actually got a generic term for these, based on NanoClaw and ZeroClaw and suchlike... they're called Claws.

An aquarium for your Claw
#

Mac Minis started to sell out around Silicon Valley, because people were buying them to run their Claws.

Drew Breunig joked to me that this is because they're the new digital pets, and a Mac Mini is the perfect aquarium for your Claw.

Alfred Molina's Doc Ock in Spider-Man 2, tearing apart a New York subway train with his four claws.
#

My favourite metaphor for Claws is Alfred Molina's Doc Ock in the 2004 movie Spider-Man 2. His claws were powered by AI, and were perfectly safe provided nothing damaged his inhibitor chip... after which they turned evil and took over.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

A really good illustration of a pelican riding a bicycle.
#

Also in February: Gemini 3.1 Pro came out, and drew me a really good pelican riding a bicycle. Look at this! It's even got a fish in its basket.

Gemini 3 Pro pelican contrasted with Gemini 3.1 Pro, as animated SVGs
#

And then Google's Jeff Dean tweeted this video of an animated pelican riding a bicycle, plus a frog on a penny-farthing and a giraffe driving a tiny car and an ostrich on roller skates and a turtle kickflipping a skateboard and a dachshund driving a stretch limousine.

So maybe the AI labs have been paying attention after all!

April 2026
#

A lot of stuff happened just in the past month.

Gemma 4 26B-A4B (17.99GB)

A pretty decent pelican riding a bicycle, though the bike is a bit mis-shapen.
#

Google released the Gemma 4 series of models, which are the most capable open weight models I've seen from a US company.

GLM-5.1
MIT, 754B parameter, 1.51TB!
#

Also last month, Chinese AI lab GLM came out with GLM-5.1 - an open weight 1.5TB monster! This is a very effective model... if you can afford the hardware to run it.

#

GLM-5.1 drew me this very competent pelican on a bicycle.

The bike is wonky, the pelican is floating.
#

... though when it tried to animate it the bicycle bounced off into the top and the bicycle got warped.

Screenshot of Bluesky

Charles
‪@charles.capps.me‬
I think you should pester it with another animal using another method of locomotion. 

Something tells me it was trained for this. I can't quite put my finger on it. /s

NORTH VIRGINIA OPOSSUM ON AN E-SCOOTER!!
#

Charles on Bluesky suggested I try it with a North Virginia Opossum on an E-scooter

NORTH VIRGINIA OPOSSUM
CRUISING THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE DUSK

And a really cool illustration of a possum.
#

And it did this! I've tried this on other models and they don't even come close. "Cruising the commonwealth since dusk" is perfect. It's animated too.

Qwen3.6-35B-A3B is a 20.9GB file that runs on my laptop

It drew a better pelican on a bicycle than Opus 4.7, which messed up the bicycle frame.
#

The other neat Chinese open weight models in April came from Qwen. Qwen3.6-35B-A3B on my laptop drew me a better pelican than Claude Opus 4.7. That's a 20.9GB open weights model that runs on my laptop!

(I think this mainly demonstrates that the pelican on the bicycle has firmly exceeded its limits as a useful benchmark.)

Claude Sonnet 4.5 pelican for comparison.
#

Here's that Claude Sonnet 4.5 pelican from September for comparison.

The themes of the past 6 months:
Coding agents got really good
Local models wildly outperform expectations
#

So those were the two main themes of the past six months. The coding agents got really good... and the laptop-available models, while a lot weaker than the frontier, have started wildly outperforming expectations.

Tags: lightning-talks, pycon, speaking, ai, generative-ai, local-llms, llms, annotated-talks, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, coding-agents

Farming in Ancient Lake Agassiz

Farm fields and roads are laid out in a repeating rectangular pattern in this snowy image.

Editor’s Note: Today’s story is the answer to the May Puzzler.

About 15,000 years ago, southeastern Manitoba sat beneath tens of meters of frigid water. Lake Agassiz—which once encompassed present-day Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipeg, and Lake of the Woods—covered an area larger than all of the Great Lakes combined. It formed in front of the retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet, which dammed rivers that otherwise might have drained into Hudson Bay, producing an expansive body of water 1,100 kilometers (700 miles) long by 300 kilometers wide that spanned parts of today’s Manitoba, Ontario, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Minnesota.

The lake began draining roughly 12,000 years ago, but its legacy remains visible across the region. In April 2026, an astronaut aboard the International Space Station snapped this photograph of farmland along the southern shore of Lake Winnipeg, where Lake Agassiz once deposited a thick, nearly flat bed of nutrient-rich silt and clay. Former lakebed areas like this one now support some of Canada’s most productive agricultural landscapes.

A grid-based land survey has also left its mark. The Dominion Land Survey, one of the world’s largest and most systematic surveying efforts, divided much of western Canada into one-square-mile sections after the Canadian government purchased Rupert’s Land from the Hudson’s Bay Company in 1869. The grid continues to define the layout of farm fields, roads, shelterbelts, and drainage channels.

When the photo was taken late in the afternoon on April 19, a layer of snow and ice covered the landscape. The brightest, whitest blocks appear to be snow-covered farmland or icy ponds, while the darker areas are forests, wetlands, or exposed ground with less uniform snow cover.

Wheat, barley, oats, and canola are among the crops often grown in the area. In the upper part of the image, cottages and lake houses are clustered around Gull Lake, a popular site for boating, fishing, and other water sports. Common fish species found in the lake include northern pike, walleye, and yellow perch.

Astronaut photograph ISS074-E-494130 was acquired on April 19, 2026, with a Nikon Z9 digital camera using a focal length of 560 millimeters. It is provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA Johnson Space Center. The image was taken by a member of the Expedition 74 crew. The image has been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. Story by Adam Voiland.

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