Up by four o’clock to go with Sir W. Batten to Woolwich and Sir J. Minnes, which we did, though not before 6 or 7 by their laying a-bed. Our business was to survey the new wharf building there, in order to the giving more to him that do it (Mr. Randall) than contracted for, but I see no reason for it, though it be well done, yet no better than contracted to be.
Here we eat and drank at the Clerke of the Cheques, and in taking water at the Tower gate, we drank a cup of strong water, which I did out of pure conscience to my health, and I think is not excepted by my oaths, but it is a thing I shall not do again, hoping to have no such occasion. After breakfast Mr. Castle and I walked to Greenwich, and in our way met some gypsys, who would needs tell me my fortune, and I suffered one of them, who told me many things common as others do, but bade me beware of a John and a Thomas, for they did seek to do me hurt, and that somebody should be with me this day se’nnight to borrow money of me, but I should lend him none. She got ninepence of me. And so I left them and to Greenwich and so to Deptford, where the two knights were come, and thence home by water, where I find my closet done at my office to my mind and work gone well on at home; and Ashwell gone abroad to her father, my wife having spoken plainly to her. After dinner to my office, getting my closet made clean and setting some papers in order, and so in the evening home and to bed.
The shoal of about 100 squid rose unexpectedly from a patch of the Pacific Ocean around 370 miles from Tokyo and glided near the boat for about 30 metres. The astonished researchers were the first to capture photographs of such a thing, which looked like the early stages of an alien invasion.
They were probably neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii), the subsequent study states, a species that is part of a 20-strong flying squid family that was known to leap from the water but, until then, was only rumoured to also be able to glide above it.
The neon flying squid was able to gain such elevation by using the hyponome, a funnel-like muscular organ also present in other cephalopods, such as octopuses. The organ is able to force water out in a jet, propelling the body along both in and out of the sea. Photographs of the gliding squid show them with their arms (they have 10 limbs in all) splayed outwards.
As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven’t covered.
Europe just had its best reporting season in years. Companies in the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index boosted earnings per share by 18% on average in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Earnings barely grew at all in 2025 and 2024 as the strongest companies in the index were offset by weaker players.
Growth is now widening beyond a narrow group of AI and bank stocks, according to Gerry Fowler, who leads the European equity strategy team at UBS. Government spending and private investment in priorities like infrastructure, energy security and defense are creating real opportunities.
The Stoxx Europe 600 is up 10% so far this year, a bit less than the S&P 500’s 12% gain. European stocks have underperformed the U.S. since the mid-2000s, but the gap has narrowed lately.
I’m trying to find time to write about niche genres that don’t get much notice from the music media. Many of these are flourishing creatively, but without any attention from pop culture elites.
So if you’re waiting until you read about these artists in Rolling Stone or Billboard, you will be waiting a long, long time. But The Honest Broker goes where others fear to tread. In that spirit, let me share some of the best gospel music happening right now.
Happy (and sanctified) listening!
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Listening to this first track is like getting into a time machine and traveling back a hundred years. You arrive on the outskirts of town, circa 1926, where a revival meeting is in progress.
At least that’s what I felt hearing (and seeing) the Brandenberger Family. If you love those old records by the Carter Family, but feared that style of singing had disappeared, this is the band for you.
Jelly Roll has covered a lot of ground in his career, both musically and psychically. He often gets labeled as a country or rap performer, but when he recently went to San Quentin Rehabilitation Center to perform for inmates, the proceedings felt more like a ministry than a concert.
The music is riveting—this is one of the most intense and rewarding videos you will see this year. I note that Jelly Roll spent time behind bars himself. That comes across in his powerful connection with the inmates.
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Next up is Pastor Brady L. Blade, Sr.. I didn’t know anything about him, until he released his debut album at the ripe age of 85. But I’ve long admired his son Brian, who is one of the greatest living jazz drummers. There’s deep musical talent encoded in that Blade DNA.
The Dutch Data Protection Authority has fined Uber €825 million
($966 million) for deactivating driver accounts through automated
systems without adequately informing them, according to an August
17 decision reviewed by Reuters.
The penalty would be the second-largest issued yet under Europe’s
General Data Protection Regulation. It is behind only a €1.2
billion fine imposed on Meta by Ireland in 2023 for unlawfully
transferring European Facebook users’ data to the United States.
Meta is appealing.
Uber said it would also appeal. [...]
The Dutch authority confirmed the decision later on Friday. “Uber
has committed serious infringements,” in deactivating driver
accounts without warning or human involvement, the organisation’s
deputy chair Monique Verdier said in a statement. “From one moment
to the next they no longer had any income ... A computer should
not make decisions on its own that have (such) major
consequences.”
Saying that “a computer” made these decisions is like saying that when a company suspends or fires a habitually late employee, that “the time clock” made the decision. Managers at the company set the policies, and the devices measure employee compliance. Verdier’s statement is talking about this like it’s HAL 9000 deciding to kill the astronauts on the Discovery.
GDPR rules ban decisions made solely by computer algorithms when
they have a significant impact on people’s lives, saying such
decisions require meaningful human review and a way to challenge a
decision.
Uber temporarily suspended accounts of some drivers who were
suspected of fraud, including when its systems concluded drivers
had taken unnecessary detours to inflate fares or accepted trips
without intending to complete them. Uber said such suspensions
were usually brief, and it did not permanently deactivate such
accounts without human review. Drivers with low customer ratings
were sometimes permanently deactivated by computer, the Dutch
agency said. Uber disputed that, saying it had never automated
permanent deactivation decisions.
The company said one reason it considers the fine disproportionate
is that only a small number of drivers were affected, with 126
having been deactivated in Europe as a result of low customer
ratings in 2021.
It’s possible that Reuters’s reporting is incomplete, but there’s no allegation here that the grounds for these suspensions were incorrect. Uber suspended drivers who were pulling long-haul scams against customers to run up fare prices, and doing the annoying thing where they accept a ride and then never show up, hoping the customer will eventually get frustrated and cancel the trip themselves. (My understanding is that drivers do this when they’re driving for, say, both Uber and Lyft. They’ll accept a ride from Uber and then if a more appealing offer comes from Lyft, they’ll accept that one too and just never pick up the customer they accepted from Uber.)
Per this fine, it’s unlawful in the EU for Uber to monitor its drivers for pulling scams against customers, or just never picking riders up, leaving them stranded. I mean, I’m not a member of the “Uber Labor Practices” fan club, but one of the best things about Uber compared to taxis is that they monitor for and take action against scam drivers.
This isn’t a two-sided conflict between employees (drivers) and a big corporation (Uber). It’s three-sided. Where does customer experience factor into this? The drivers were scamming customers, and Uber took action to stop it. This sounds to me like a system that works. The EU regulation doesn’t seem to factor in customers at all.
Microsoft’s iPhone app for OneDrive has long supported creating three new document types via a big “+” button right in its file viewer: Excel, Word, PowerPoint. It recently came to my attention that they’ve added a fourth document type, and they even gave it real Microsoft-style “they just have no taste” file icon. Just look at it. The whole world’s coming to an end, Mallory.
When we think about convenience, we think about a lot of things,
but making shopping feel simpler and more seamless from start to
finish is a big part. And one of the moments where that matters
most is at checkout.
We want customers and members to have choice in how they pay, so
they can check out in the way that works best for them. Now,
beginning Aug. 24, we will be adding Tap to Pay to our payment
options at select Walmart stores and Sam’s Club locations, with
plans to roll it out to all U.S. stores and clubs by the end of
2026 and to fuel stations by mid-2027.
When I think about convenience, I think about CurrentC, scanning stupid-ass QR codes, and waiting 12 years to adopt Apple Pay.
It occurred to me last night that I’d gotten less feedback regarding recent posts than usual. There were a fewitems I’d posted in recent days that I felt sure to hear from readers about, both yea and nay. But: nothing. Crickets chirping. I almost always hear from squeaky wheels in the EU when I write about Apple and the DMA, for example, but I heard nothing about my take yesterday that Apple has effectively pantsed the European Commission regarding App Store commissions.
I noticed this morning that the bot that auto-posts new articles to the DF Mastodon account hadn’t posted since Tuesday night. But it wasn’t the Mastodon posting bot that was broken. It was a different automated task that updates the RSS and JSON feeds. That’s what broke sometime between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The Mastodon posting bot reads the RSS feed, and if there’s nothing new in the RSS feed, there’s nothing for the bot to post. Still though, I thought it was weird that no one who follows DF from the feeds had emailed, texted, or @replied to me to complain that new articles on the website had stopped appearing in the feeds. No one.
Then, I remembered that the DF website home page is generated from ... the RSS feed.1
So, yeah, pretty much no one but me realized that I’d written seven new posts after the last update Tuesday night. Oops. Needless to say, it no longer seems surprising at all that I haven’t heard anything from readers in a few days. My apologies for delivering most of this week’s output all at once. We can pretend today that DF is a weekly newsletter.
The system that conked out that in turn prevented the feed generation script from seeing new content has conked out once before in recent memory — last October. But when it conked out in October I noticed within a few hours, because readers kept complaining about the same typo that I had fixed, in my CMS, but which was still visible on the home page, because the home page only gets updated from the feed content. I never previously considered adding some sort of alert to check on this, because I always presumed I’d notice if new items I published weren’t appearing on the home page or in the feeds. ↩︎
Ian Austen, reporting for The New York Times (gift link):
The morning after he pulled negotiators from trade talks in Washington and set off a new round of American tariffs, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Saturday explained to Canadians why he walked away, calling the U.S. proposal “a bad deal.”
“We’ve recognized from the start that America has changed,” Mr. Carney said. “We recognize that sometimes, its signature is written in pencil.”
“We cannot accept what they offered and we will not give what they asked,” he added. “We were not prepared to compromise Canada’s sovereignty or undermine our key industries.”
If only Sharpie made pencils. Carney is rising the moment and showing the rest of the world how to deal with the Trump administration. The only correct way to deal with a con man is to cut him off, and call him out for what he is.
View of Haarlem with Bleaching Grounds, by Jacob van Ruisdael, via WikiArt.
Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at Los Angeles’ ADUs, electrical transformer manufacturing, gas turbine power plants, how water in the Colorado River is used, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.
No essay this week, but I have a very long piece in American Affairs about why US transit construction costs are so high. You can read it here.
Housing and Cities
Los Angeles built over 10,000 ADUs in 2025, 37% of all housing units built in the county. [Smart Cities Dive]
There were 511 state bills introduced in 2025 across 40 states that pre-empted county land use authority in some way, 27% of which passed. A lot of land use restrictions are downstream of the local nature of land use authority — costs of development tend to be concentrated, and benefits tend to be diffuse, so local authorities are often incentivized to restrict development. State-level pre-emption should in theory help with this. [Smart Cities Dive]
Mexico plans on making it much harder to illicitly develop along the coast, and to tear down any illegal buildings that exist. “For years, wealthy developers have treated environmental fines as simply another line item in their budgets—a minor inconvenience easily absorbed by their profit margins. Tamborrel acknowledged this problem directly: “There are companies that allocate part of their budget to pay these fines and then continue operating; offenders prefer to pay the fine rather than request a permit.” But those days appear to be ending. Profepa has already closed four real estate developments in Puerto Vallarta and promises similar action along all of Mexico’s coastal states.” [Yucatan Magazine]
Claims (with video) that Amazon’s drone delivery service dropped a package in someone’s pool. [X]
The city of Mesa, Arizona is planning to sue several firetruck manufacturers, claiming that they’re colluding to drive up prices. [Mesa Tribune]
Manufacturing
Raytheon gets a $23 billion Navy contract for Tomahawk missiles. [Manufacturing Dive]
The New York Times has a photo essay on the laborious process of electrical transformer manufacturing. It’s not amazingly clear to me why this process isn’t more automated, and whether that would help to get them built faster or if the bottleneck lies elsewhere. [NYT]
1872 is a startup founded by several former SpaceX employees that wants to build highly automated factories for making steel parts. “The company is initially focused on automating the manufacturing of steel skids—rectangular steel frames that can provide a moveable foundation for modular buildings—with the goal of supplying customers who are developing AI data centers or small modular nuclear reactors.” [Ars Technica]
Energy
There are currently 270 GW of natural gas power plants in various stages of development in the US. This is roughly equal to 20% of all current US generation capacity. [X]
FERC approves a Southwest Power Pool (a regional transmission operator) plan to reduce grid congestion by “topology optimization” — responding to congestion by rerouting how power flows through the grid, rather than redispatching power plants. MISO, another regional transmission operator, already has such a program, and estimates that it has saved them almost $100 million so far this year. [Utility Dive]
The DOE cancels three planned National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors, designations designed to make it easier to build transmission projects. The DOE stated that transmission policy “must serve the American people, not special interests or a climate-alarmist agenda.” [Utility Dive]
"Dufwenberg joined the faculty at Purdue in 2025 as a professor of economics. His research uses game theory and experiments to incorporate insights from psychology into economic analysis. Much of his work develops and applies a formal framework called psychological game theory, which is useful for modeling emotions, reciprocity, social norms and image concerns. His publications have appeared in many scientific outlets, including Econometrica, American Economic Review, Neuron, The Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Economic Theory, Games and Economic Behavior, and more. Dufwenberg currently serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of the Economic Science Association and Experimental Economics. His honors and awards include being named an Economic Theory Fellow as well as receiving an honorary doctorate at the University of Gothenburg, the Erik Malmsten Visiting Professorship Award, the Royal Economic Society Prize and more. "
This study examines how Americans’ time with friends has changed over the week, focusing not on how much social interaction has declined but on when it has. Using American Time Use Survey data from 2003 to 2024 (N = 243,095), I map hourly patterns of “friend time” across the days of the week. In the early 2000s, social life followed a clear weekly rhythm: Modest weekday interaction built toward pronounced peaks on Friday and Saturday nights. Since the mid-2010s, that rhythm has collapsed. Friday night, once a central site of social activity, now looks like a typical weeknight. Saturday remains elevated but less so than before. Overall, time with friends has fallen by more than half. The mix of social activities, however, has remained stable. Americans have not replaced one form of interaction with another; they have reduced social interaction across the board. These findings point to a temporal reorganization of social life marked by the disappearance of the “night out.”
On August 21, 1831, Nat Turner, an enslaved American, led about 70 of his enslaved and free Black neighbors in a rebellion to awaken his white neighbors to the inherent brutality of slaveholding and the dangers it presented to their own safety. Turner and his friends traveled from house to house in their neighborhood in Southampton County, Virginia, freeing enslaved people and murdering about 60 of the white men, women, and children they encountered. Their goal, Turner later told an interviewer, was “to carry terror and devastation wherever we went.”
State militia put down the rebellion in a couple of days, and both the legal system and white vigilantes killed at least 200 Black Virginians, many of whom were not involved in Turner’s bid to end enslavement. Turner himself was captured in October, tried in November, sentenced to death, and hanged.
But white Virginians, and white folks in neighboring southern states, remained frightened. Turner had been, in their minds, a well-treated, educated enslaved man, who knew his Bible well and seemed the very last sort of person they would have expected to revolt. And so they responded to the rebellion in two ways. They turned against the idea that enslavement was a bad thing, and instead began to argue that human enslavement was a positive good.
And states across the South passed laws making it a crime to teach enslaved Americans to read and write.
Denying enslaved Black Americans access to education exiled them from a place in the nation. The Framers had quite explicitly organized the United States not on the principles of religion or tradition, but rather on the principles of the Enlightenment: the idea that, by applying knowledge and reasoning to the natural world, men could figure out the best way to order society. Someone excluded from access to education could not participate in that national project. Instead, that person was read out of society, doomed to be controlled by leaders who marshaled religion and propaganda to defend their dominance.
In 1858, Senator James Henry Hammond of South Carolina explained that society needed “a class to do the menial duties, to perform the drudgery of life. That is, a class requiring but a low order of intellect and but little skill.”
But when they organized in the 1850s to push back against the efforts of elite enslavers like Hammond to take over the national government, members of the fledgling Republican Party recognized the importance of education. In 1859, Illinois lawyer Abraham Lincoln explained that those who adhered to Hammond’s “mud-sill” theory “assumed that labor and education are incompatible; and any practical combination of them impossible…. According to that theory, the education of laborers, is not only useless, but pernicious, and dangerous.”
Lincoln argued that workers were not simply drudges but rather were the heart of the economy. “The prudent, penniless beginner in the world, labors for wages awhile, saves a surplus with which to buy tools or land, for himself; then labors on his own account another while, and at length hires another new beginner to help him.” He tied the political vision of the Framers to this economic vision. In order to prosper, he argued, men needed “book-learning,” and he called for universal education. An educated community, he said, “will be alike independent of crowned-kings, money-kings, and land-kings.”
When they were in control of the federal government in the 1860s, Republicans passed the Land Grant College Act, funding public universities so that men without wealthy fathers might have access to higher education. In the aftermath of the Civil War, Republicans also tried to use the federal government to fund public schools for poor Black and white Americans, apportioning money according to illiteracy rates.
But President Andrew Johnson vetoed that bill on the grounds that the federal government had no business messing with education: that process, he said, belonged to the states—which for the next century denied Black people equal access to schools, excluding them from full participation in American society and condemning them to menial labor.
Then, in 1954, after decades of pressure from Black and Brown Americans for equal access to public schools, the Supreme Court under Chief Justice Earl Warren, a former Republican governor of California, unanimously agreed that separate schools were inherently unequal and thus unconstitutional.
Immediately, white southerners lawmakers launched a campaign of what they called “massive resistance” to integration. Some Virginia counties closed their public schools. Others took funds from integrated public schools and used a grant system to redistribute those funds to segregated private schools.
Within years, these segregation academies would dovetail neatly with the religious schools organized after the 1962 Engel v. Vitale decision in which the Supreme Court struck down state-mandated prayer in public schools, and the 1963 Abington School District v. Schempp decision prohibiting teachers from leading students in prayer and Bible reading. The Supreme Court decisions against prayer in schools reinforced the idea that the government opposed “family values,” and fundamentalists pulled their children out of public schools and created alternative religious schools. Fundamentalist leader Jerry Falwell began to suggest that public schools should be abolished entirely.
Both of these developments provided constituents for Ronald Reagan’s rise to political power with a message that public employees had gotten too powerful and that public enterprises should be privatized.
After Reagan’s election, his secretary of education commissioned a study of the nation’s public schools, starting with the conviction that there was a “widespread public perception that something is seriously remiss in our educational system.” The resulting report, titled “A Nation at Risk,” announced: “the educational foundations of our society are presently being eroded by a rising tide of mediocrity that threatens our very future as a Nation and a people.”
Although a later study commissioned in 1990 by the secretary of energy found the data in the original report did not support the report’s conclusions, Reagan nonetheless used it to justify school privatization. He vowed after the report’s release that he would “continue to work in the months ahead for passage of tuition tax credits, vouchers, educational savings accounts, voluntary school prayer, and abolishing the Department of Education. Our agenda is to restore quality to education by increasing competition and by strengthening parental choice and local control.”
The drive to push tax dollars from public schools to private academies through a voucher system remained a top priority for those on the right. In his first term, Trump asked Congress to fund “school choice for disadvantaged youth, including millions of African-American and Latino children. These families should be free to choose the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school that is right for them.” His education secretary, Betsy DeVos, was a staunch supporter of school choice and the voucher system; she and her family gave $600,000 to promote school choice ballot laws in the decade before 2017.
The coronavirus pandemic sped up the push to defund public schools as Trump pushed hard to transfer funds from the closed public schools to private schools. That push helped to change the nature of vouchers from ones targeted at students from poor families or students with special needs toward vouchers for everyone. In 2022, Arizona lawmakers passed the biggest school voucher program in the nation.
Advocates claimed that the new program would “save taxpayers thousands per student, millions statewide,” but in fact, as Eli Hager of ProPublica explained in 2024, the parents most likely to apply for subsidies already had their children in private school or were homeschooling them, using the vouchers to replace what they had been paying in the past. The state’s spending on vouchers ballooned to $886 million in 2024–2025 as families from wealthier, whiter school districts used vouchers for children who were already in private school. The costs blew a hole in the state’s budget: in 2024, Arizona faced a shortfall of $1.4 billion, forcing the state to slash spending for water infrastructure, road repair, and community colleges.
But voucher programs continued to expand, helped by DeVos’s continued promotion of vouchers after Trump left office. In 2022 a nonprofit she founded poured about $9 million—about $2.5 million of which came from DeVos and her husband—into state elections, backing nearly 200 candidates who would push school vouchers to subsidize private schools with public tax money.
In May 2025, Texas governor Greg Abbott signed into law a voucher program in Texas under which, beginning this fall, families will receive about $10,000 a year for each school-age child to spend at a private school or $2,000 for children being homeschooled. The program is capped at $1 billion in its first two years, but experts predict it will rise to almost $5 billion by 2030.
The measure had faced opposition from Democrats and also Republicans from rural districts who worried about money draining from their public schools. It passed only after national pro-voucher advocates poured money into replacing the Republican state legislators who had stood against a voucher system with pro-voucher candidates. Abbott said that one of those donations, $6 million from Republican megadonor billionaire Jeff Yass of Pennsylvania, was the “largest single donation in Texas history.”
Earlier this month, Jaden Edison and Sneha Dey of the Texas Tribune explained that a report from the state comptroller showed that of the more than 100,000 families participating in the new private school voucher program, most are white and from urban areas. Their families make less than twice the federal poverty level. About 70% were already attending private schools or being homeschooled.
Austin Democratic state senator Sarah Eckhardt said the report “proves this program is a billion-dollar handout to exclusive private schools concentrated in big cities, while public schools across the state are underfunded and closing at an alarming rate.”
In Arizona, opponents of the voucher program tried to put onto the ballot this fall a measure that would have limited eligibility for the program by income and cracked down on the misuse of funds by homeschoolers, who used voucher money for ninja warrior training centers, trampoline parks, pianos, and so on. But voucher supporters sued over the signatures on the ballot measure, and on Tuesday the Arizona Supreme Court decided in their favor, throwing the measure out of this fall’s election.
Elvia Díaz of the Arizona Mirror wrote: “Arizona school vouchers that are pulling $1 billion away from students in K–12 public schools are here to stay, whether we like it or not.” She noted that “the real challenge is a public school system left underfunded and a voucher system left unchecked.”
In 1831, southern lawmakers tried to create a white nation by making it a crime to educate Black Americans. In 2026 the intent to exclude certain Americans from participation in the Enlightenment principles that undergird the nation remains the same, only less explicit.
And it was hidden in the FLAGGED portion of my in box, so I didn’t see it until, well, right now. But it feels fair to post it here, because Melissa exerted the energy to opine.
For the record, this will be, officially, the second time someone on the hard right has filed some sort of “report” against me/this site, which is a) A pretty crazy misunderstanding/warping of the First Amendment and its protections; B) Uniquely weird.
[If you’re interested, here’s Exhibit A—the saga of Texas’ own Amber Smith]
Anyhow, I am also officially using this space to invite Melissa to do a Q&A for the site. We can sit down over coffee and cashews and I will ask questions (and listen intently) about trans issues and your cause. You can bring your own recording device to make certain I am true to every word—which I, of course, will be.
Here’s Melissa’s missive (notations at the bottom) …
Hey Jeff! Don’t appreciate the references to my death or inaccurate information about our organization of volunteer moms and the hundreds of documents we’ve discovered in public record that prove the Democrat party and their organizations profit heavily from recruiting kids into child patient mills at school. I hope if you have any sane/curious readers that they will check out the #Trans_student_hustle. You obviously have not1, as our work is about protecting kids from predatory adults and organizations that use and abuse tax payer money, rob children of their health and futures, while enriching politicians, hospitals and NGOs. We want parents of trans kids informed, not lied to like Sacramento Democrats wanted- AB1955. We want Trans kids informed about how they are being recruited and victimized by a system who profits from their pain. We want them to know they are loved2 and there are people who have no conflicts of interest who simply did research because we are moms and protect our young is what we do. If doing that puts me on your list, it begs the question- are you being paid by the Teachers Union and others for this article?3 That’s ok, based upon all of the lies in your article, I suspect you wouldn’t answer honestly and you will delete my comment like you have previously.4 We will check public records to find your affiliations5. The public records on trans topic are clear and we want transparency for kids at school and parents that send them there. They deserve to have eyes wide open, and know who is profiting and how. Your words about trans parents and kids feeling ostracized and attacked are your words of fiction, not reality6. We are respectful. You are not, as evidenced in this article, it is your desire to ostracize and attack people who disagree with you or those you work for. In fact, I’d always invite conversation and transparency, never call anyone “freaks” “the worst” “a gaggle of loons” and a “junk box mixture” as you have for this article. And I’d never put together a list as you have because I’m not a bully. Obviously, you are. Also, I’m not “in politics” as you falsely report7. Pretty sad that the title of your article is calling people “freaks” and “worst” and then you call others hypocrites citing President Trump name calling. I hope people are smarter than you think they are. I believe they are. Please know that I filed a police report against you because I feel very threatened by your focus on my dying, even though you attempt to veil threats8. I don’t know how words about my death even tie into this article, so clearly it is a veiled threat and has been reported as such. You are a man and you threaten a woman, a founder of a moms organization that is simply showing public records to parents and kids with truth about who is profiting off of them. I hope (and I pray because I am a Christian as you accurately report) that readers will check out the public records and understand the billions of dollars that NGO’s, teachers unions, hospitals, and politicians stand to lose once parents know why there is an inorganic increase in young patients for trans medicalization. I am a private citizen9 and I believe there are a number of civil violations you’ve committed against me, so, I’ve also contacted my attorney #trans_student_hustle
I was a Cub Scout for several weeks. Then a member of VAASA (Varsity Athletes Against Substance Abuse) in high school—though I did have some wine coolers while enlisted. I later was a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America, and a registered Democrat. Oh, and I had a season pass to Dave and Busters.
Police: “Mr. Pearlman?” Me: “Yes?” Police: “A woman said you threatened her life.” Me: “Really?” Police: “Yeah, she said you wrote (checks notes), ‘It’s, oh, 60 years from now, and Melissa Crew dies peacefully in her sleep (to be clear, I’m not wishing death upon anyone. She’ll be around 100—so a nice long life) …’” Me: “Yup.” Police: “Have a nice day, sir.”
Why so popular? Probably because it was early “vibe coding” – I copy-and-pasted between ChatGPT and Xcode to code it, and that was new at the time.
But ALSO because knowing where the galactic centre is surprisingly grounding? I wake up every few months to an email in my inbox from someone who is having a tough time in life, or is losing a loved one, or similar, and somehow they have discovered Galactic Compass and they tell me how they sit outside at night with a cigarette and gaze at the arrow and it gives them a place of comfort and infinity.
I know what they mean. The Earth spins; it turns around the Sun; and so, at first, the supermassive black hole of the galaxy appears to slowly whirl around us, above and under the horizon, round and round. But then your perspective flips, and we are the ones moving, and the centre of the galaxy becomes a fixed point, our rock.
Anyway Galactic Compass 2 has two new features:
Augmented reality mode. You can place the arrow in the world around you and walk around it.
Apple Watch app. See the compass arrow on your wrist (tap to use alignment mode which gives you a haptic bump when the arrow is pointing straight ahead).
Plus a new Liquid Glass appearance ready for iOS 27.
Apple’s in-camera augmented reality is really, really good. Like, the arrow remains rock solid as you walk around. I hope they keep improving it.
I added a specific interaction that I’m intrigued by: you can hold down on the compass around to “drag” it around. It remains about 75cm away in phone reference frame, then drops into world frame when you release. I like how fluid it feels. My phone starts to feel like a glove that can reach into the virtual.
With the Apple Watch app… RealityKit, Apple’s graphics SDK, isn’t supported on watchOS. So how does the arrow rotate any which way? The joy of AI and agents that grind problems into dust: Claude Fable built its own 3D graphics library. Astounding.
It isn’t all fire-and-forget vibing with AI agents:
That first version of Galactic Compass didn’t work when you lifted your phone higher than about 30 degrees. ChatGPT couldn’t get the maths right.
And there is a lot of maths: device rotation, world frame rotation, astro… the appropriate way to combine these 3D rotations (and avoid gimbal lock) is a method called “quaternions” which - despite my physics background - I have never grasped.
After I released version 1.0, I figured I would have to do the rotations myself. So I sat down with ChatGPT and I didn’t get it to write the code, but I got it to educate me. With a patient, interactive tutor, I was able to finally do what I hadn’t by reading books and asking mathematician friends – I learnt how to use quaternions just enough to make the app work.
So learning doesn’t stop just because I outsource a bunch of thinking to AI. It pushes me to learn more. I like that as an outcome.
A new national space transportation policy signed by President Donald Trump on Thursday calls for the development of more spaceports to support more than 1,000 launches and reentries per year by 2030.
The presidential memorandum replaces a 2013 policy signed by former President Barack Obama. Both policies share an emphasis on supporting the commercial space industry and underscore the importance of assured access to space. But the launch sector has changed immensely since then. There were 176 orbital launch attempts from US soil last year, nearly 10 times the number in 2013. SpaceX led the pack last year with 165 orbital launches of its Falcon 9 rocket, plus five suborbital test flights of the much larger Starship.
"By 2030, our space transportation ranges must grow to support more than 1,000 launches and reentries every year," the policy says. "The policies set forth in this memorandum will secure America's continued superiority in space."
Welcome to Edition 9.07 of the Rocket Report! China's workhorse Long March rocket family appears to be rebounding quickly from a rare launch failure August 10. Chinese officials have not publicly released any information on what may have caused the Long March 7A rocket to break apart less than 90 seconds after liftoff, but the rocket's use of YF-100 engines initially raised questions about the failure's impact on other Chinese rockets that use the same type of engines. But no biggie. YF-100 engines returned to flight six days later with the successful flight of a Long March 12 rocket, and the heavy-lift Long March 5—also with YF-100 engines—is set to launch in a few days with one of China's most important space missions of the decade: the Chang'e 7 lunar lander en route to the Moon's south pole.
As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets, as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Trouble in Taiwan. A prototype for a future satellite launch vehicle developed by Taiwan's top weapons manufacturer veered off course shortly after liftoff Wednesday, Taiwan's Central News Agency reports. The "trajectory anomaly" prompted the activation of the rocket's self-destruct mechanism. The government agency responsible for the test flight, the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST), reported no injuries or property damage. Debris from the rocket fell into a planned safety control zone near the southern tip of Taiwan.
Paris, France | August 2026– More than 6,500 Earth observation (EO) satellites are expected to launch by 2035, generating $155.9 billion in manufacturing revenues as governments expand sovereign intelligence, surveillance, […]
Thomas Ptacek advocates for building real native user interfaces for even the smallest of personal tools, because coding agents have reduced the cost of getting a usable-enough GUI up and running to almost nothing.
I wrote about my vibe-coded bandwidth and GPU monitoring macOS task bar apps back in March, and I'm still using both of those on a daily basis.
I'm not habitually knocking out real UIs for my other projects yet, but I'm running out of excuses!
Thomas:
If you haven’t tried your hand at turning one of your 500 throwaway CLIs into a native app, you’re doing yourself a disservice. Go build a native UI. It’ll probably change the way you think.
After I released version 1.0, I figured I would have to do the rotations myself. So I sat down with ChatGPT and I didn’t get it to write the code, but I got it to educate me. With a patient, interactive tutor, I was able to finally do what I hadn’t by reading books and asking mathematician friends – I learnt how to use quaternions just enough to make the app work.
So learning doesn’t stop just because I outsource a bunch of thinking to AI. It pushes me to learn more. I like that as an outcome.
— Matt Webb, Galactic Compass 2: now with new augmented reality mode
Lots of people are worried about rising long-term interest rates. Short-term interest rates are controlled by the central bank. But the Fed doesn’t usually intervene in the market for longer-term bonds, so when these interest rates move around, it means the market is telling us something. So a lot of people were worried when the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds jumped by 6 basis points (0.06%) the other day.
Why were people scared? Well, remember that when interest rates go up, it means bond prices went down. Which means that fewer people wanted to buy U.S. government bonds. This could be a signal of several bad things:
It could signal expectations of higher inflation. When future money will be worth less, bond investors demand higher interest rates today. Higher inflation also means the Fed will probably raise interest rates.
It could signal a loss of confidence in the U.S. government. If people think there’s a possibility that the U.S. won’t repay its debts, they will charge a higher risk premium to hold that debt. These doubting investors are sometimes called “bond vigilantes”. Bond vigilantes could be scared by soaring U.S. debt levels and deficits, and/or by irresponsible geopolitical and economic policies from the Trump administration.
Unsustainable fiscal policies can only go on so long. Eventually bond investors decide that the US will not in the end do the right thing after trying everything else, and default, expropriation, taxation, capital controls, or sharp inflation is on its way. They stop buying long-term bonds especially, and look to the comfort of short term bonds…For some reason there is limited demand for long-term treasury debt…
The beginning of a global sovereign debt retrenchment would show up first in a feeling of limited demand…Investors, seeing trouble demand a larger risk premium for longer term debt…Moving to short maturity structures is a classic symptom of trouble ahead.
Among the people who were scared by the rise in interest rates, apparently, were the Trump administration. Higher long-term interest rates mean higher mortgage rates,1 which make American voters mad. They also make it harder for the U.S. government to finance its enormous deficits. So Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the government was intervening in the bond market, with a program to buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This pushed up bond prices — and pushed down interest rates — for exactly one day, but then the bond markets bounced right back:2
US Treasuries fell a day after the Trump administration’s surprise decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds…The 30-year yield on Thursday rose over seven basis points to as much as 5.27%, where it was just ahead of the US Treasury Department’s announcement early Wednesday.
So are we watching the collapse of confidence in the U.S. government? Is this the beginning of bankruptcy for Uncle Sam? Probably not yet. The underlying trends of excessive borrowing and boneheaded policies do bear keeping an eye on, and collapses of investor confidence can happen fast once they begin. But it’s unlikely that a true sovereign debt crisis has begun.
How much are interest rates actually up by?
One reason I’m not terrified by the rise in long-term rates is that it’s not actually that big of a rise!
In stories about rising rates, you see a lot of charts about how it’s a global phenomenon:
This has interesting implications, but first, notice that except for Japan, most of the rise was actually in 2021-2023. So whatever happened to make bond investors demand higher rates, most of it happened years ago.
Here’s just the U.S., zoomed out to cover the last decade:
Long-term rates fell in 2019 and bottomed out during the pandemic, then in 2022 and 2023 they had a big sustained rise. In comparison, the rise since early 2026 has been very small — only a few tenths of a percent.
That could be the beginning of a catastrophic rise, and of course when you’re carrying as much debt as the U.S. government is, even a small increase in borrowing costs can be a headache if it’s sustained over a long period of time. But I just can’t look at that little wiggle in 2026 and see evidence of a bond market collapse. You should be very worried about the U.S. national debt, but this rise in rates should only make you a tiny bit more worried, if at all.
So what is behind the (small) rise in long-term rates? There are three basic possibilities.
Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, isn’t the worst member of Trump’s cabinet. I mean, he has to compete with the likes of Pete Hegseth. But he leads the pack in terms of being far worse than anyone imagined he would be. Here, for example, is how the Financial Times reported on his selection:
Credible Treasury secretary, my, um, assets. In office, Bessent has been a consummate Trump sycophant. For example, in March 2026 the Treasury announced that henceforth Donald Trump’s signature would appear on paper currency — a first for any sitting president. Bessent’s prepared remarks ran as follows:
Under President Trump’s leadership, we are on a path toward unprecedented economic growth, lasting dollar dominance, and fiscal strength and stability. There is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of our great country and President Donald J. Trump than U.S dollar bills bearing his name, and it is only appropriate that this historic currency be issued at the Semiquincentennial.
This kind of “Dear Leader” rhetoric coming from the nation’s top economic official is far worse than just embarrassing. In times of crisis, the Treasury secretary’s credibility is a critical asset for dealing with financial markets. So when Bessent talks like a love-struck Natalie Harp, it carries the potential for enormous financial and economic costs for the country.
Moreover, Bessent routinely makes assertions about the state of the economy that are manifestly, glaringly untrue – as if he can gaslight the professionals who closely track economic data. A couple of weeks ago, for example, Bessent rejected the widespread view that we have a “K-shaped economy” in which a few people are doing well but many are falling behind:
I get sick of hearing about this K-shaped economy, I can say here definitively, the K-shaped economy is over.
Bessent tried to back up his claim by pointing to data on wages, which showed that those in the top 25 percent had slightly lower wage gains than those in the bottom 25%. But nobody familiar with the data was fooled. High-income Americans receive much of their income from capital, not labor, while many lower-income Americans rely on food stamps and other programs that are facing savage cuts under Trump. Here’s what after tax-and-transfer real income looks like for the 1 percent and the bottom half of the population since Trump II began:
Looks pretty damn K-ish to me.
So it’s clear that Bessent’s pronouncements are geared to an audience of one: Donald Trump. He doesn’t mind sounding like a fool and a liar to the financial markets and to the American public as long as it pleases Dear Leader.
But Bessent’s betrayal of the trust that was placed in him by the American public to be a competent steward of the nation’s economy goes beyond public pronouncements. Something very troubling is happening inside the Treasury department as well. According to the Partnership for Public Service, a nonpartisan watchdog, 7 out 16 Trump Treasury appointees confirmed by the Senate — that is, the very top Treasury officials — have left since the start of Trump II. That’s 44 percent, an astonishingly high percentage. According to NOTUS, which reported on the study,
At least four of the seven top Treasury officials left after disagreements with the White House over demands to stretch, if not violate, tax law. Those disputes included Treasury resistance to a controversial push to use taxpayer data as part of the administration’s immigration crackdown, as well as the president’s push to establish a $1.8 billion fund to compensate allies as part of a deal with the IRS to drop any past or future tax audits of the president and his family. (The “anti-weaponization” fund was later dropped due to resistance from Senate Republicans.)
NOTUS quotes Mark Mazur, a former senior Treasury official, who suggests that some of the departing officials may be leaving rather than commit illegal acts:
A lot of these people expect to have a career after this administration, and being disbarred would be a bad thing for them.
And aside from apparently demanding that Treasury officials act in ways that would put them in legal jeopardy, Bessent has been deploying the financial resources of the Treasury in ways that have little relationship to U.S. national interest, but are clearly in the service of Trump’s political goals.
One example was a large financial intervention in October 2025 to support the Argentine peso. The U.S. has no obvious economic or national security stake in Argentina. The obvious goal, however, was an attempt to rescue the right-wing, Trump-friendly government of Javier Milei. While this intervention bought Milei some time, it didn’t revive his political fortunes: Milei’s approval ratings are at Trump-like levels.
Which brings me to Bessent’s most recent interventionist move: An attempt to reverse the recent spike in U.S. long-term interest rates by buying back 30-year Treasury bonds. It’s actually an almost pitifully small move:
Still, where does the money for the buyback come from? From sales of government issued shorter-term debt, largely Treasury bills.
This is just a swap of longer-term government debt for shorter-term, riskier government debt. It does nothing to resolve the underlying U.S. fiscal problems that caused the spike in the 30-year debt. Some analysts call Bessent’s strategy“rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.”
But it’s actually worse than that. I won’t go into all the wonky details here, but Bessent’s bond move is functionally equivalent to “quantitative easing,” the policy the Federal Reserve followed in the early 2010s.
Back then the Fed was trying to boost an economy that was still deeply depressed in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. So it tried to reduce long-term interest rates by buying long-term federal debt, paid for by effectively issuing short-term debt in the form of interest-paying deposits.
The Fed did quantitative easing in the early 2010s for good reasons: to resuscitate a moribund economy. But conditions are completely different now: Unemployment is fairly low and the economy is suffering from above-target inflation. Indeed, there’s a live debate within the Fed about whether to tighten money to fight inflation. So why is the Treasury engaging in an end run around the Fed, conducting its own de facto expansionary monetary policy?
The answer is clearly political: High long-term interest rates are an embarrassment for the Trump administration, and Bessent is trying to make the picture look prettier, even though this means undermining the people who are supposed to be making monetary policy.
The maneuver is failing: 30-year yields fell briefly on Wednesday, when the policy was announced, but bounced back on Thursday and were higher as I write this than they were a week ago. — clear proof that you can’t gaslight the bond market.
So Bessent, a former bond trader himself, has squandered all of his credibility with his sycophancy, his apparent demands that top officials engage in unethical and probably illegal conduct, and his abuse of the Treasury’s financial power for clearly political goals.
And his ruined reputation will be a real problem if and when, like many of his predecessors, he encounters a crisis in which we really need a credible Treasury secretary with competent subordinates.
Fresh installs of LLM stopped working the other day because the OpenAI Python library dropped its usage of httpx, and it turned out LLM depended on that library but only installed it via a transitive openai dependency.
This dot-release fixes that for the moment by pinning to openai<3, and a soon-to-drop 0.33 release will switch from httpx to httpx2.
San Francisco Chronicle columnist Herb Caen used to do the occasional Friday column with this title, throwing unrelated things together in 3-dot journalism style. I’m gonna try it because:
I’m behind in posting; I try to do one per week.
My life is both rich and chaotic these days. I’ve never been so busy, and this, along with the aging factor makes for a wild ride.
So here are random photos. Like a lot of things I do, I’m just gonna start and see how it works. Right now, I’ll work backwards through my photos,
In putting up the pages of my handmade book Pop’s Diner (in the four recent Substack posts), I rediscovered the art of shooting photos with the approximate looks of a 50 mm lens, and collaging them to form a panorama.
What jumps out at me here is the reality of the scene, as opposed to the distortions of wide-angle lenses. It’s exciting to discover this technique I was utilizing 30-40 years ago — except now Photoshop is is piecing them together (in Photomerge).
The kitchen was built by Lew Lewandowski about 30 years ago. (At the time, Lew was a traveling carpenter; carrying all his tools, including a small table saw and joiner in a Volkswagen van [along with his two dogs]),
I got the stainless steel sink for $100 at Caldwell Wreckers in San Francisco. It drains from both sides into the sink, unlike most sinks with a lip around the counter (that eventually rots). I wash dishes in the Rubbermaid dishpan, rinse, and stack in the slotted wooden shelf on the right.
In fact, somewhat to Lesley’s chagrin (and amusement), I did this video a few years ago:
My neighbor, artist Dieter Tremp showed up a few weeks ago with this (12” by 14”) drawing. He’d done a bunch of drawings based on photographer Imogene Cunningham’s book After Ninety, and realized he had a nonagenarian down the road. To tell the truth, I’m kinda thrilled with it.
Anna Magnani, the Italian actress is said to have said to a makeup artist who wanted to smooth out her face, something like "No, no, I earned all these lines in my face."
10,000 Trips Around the Lagoon
Coming home on an afternoon last week. The water, sky, birds, view of the ridge, are always different, and how about this? — I’ve been along the edge of lagoon, returning home, well over 10,000 times — on foot, bike and car. (Say four times a week for 55 years.)
Two Nonagenarians, one Octogenarian
Impromptu old guys club last week.
Tony Serra (red shirt) and me, both 91, and Jasper, our young friend in his early ‘80s at Tony’s house — all of us native San Franciscans. Tony’s daughter Wonder and granddaughter Page had just left, and the three of us talked for about an hour. Tony and I have been friends for over 70 years.
I don’t get the chance to talk to people my age much, and it was like we were speaking a different language — based on what we’ve seen in a pretty good span of years.
One of those “sweet spots in time,”* when everything comes together. We covered a lot of ground, Tony reciting the odd poem in his passionate stentorian style.
Writing this while listening to album “She’s So Fine: The Rise of the Girl Groups,” some of the mighty fine (and mostly unknown) fabulous girl singers of the ‘50s
* If you follow me, you’ll find I use this phrase pretty often.
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Farm Fresh Rainbows
Free-range multi-color beauties engineered by Sirima and Walter
Coleus Colors
Three coleus plants and a mask at Berkeley Horticultural Nursery Friday. I bought the gaudy one at top left to liven up our burgeoning garden.
I’m working my way backwards through my iPhone (17) shots here.
A Mexican Bakery
Bakery in the Los Montañas Mercado in San Pablo, the closest thing we have to a real Mexican mercado in the Bay Area. Fantastic store, huge. Real made-in-a-vat chicharones. All the foods of Mexico. And the bakery — well, I appreciate this on an artistic, if not gustatory level.
Freeway Design
Once in a while, freeways exhibit good design. (I love the brick red color; all my doors and windows are painted brick red.) This is near the Presidio Pet Cemetery in San Francisco (667 McDowell Avenue), which is, in itself, worth a visit. (There’s one tombstone for a beloved deceased pet goldfish,)
Surfers on Bikes
Spotted these guys downtown one day. Mitch and Lee got on a train in Truckee (near Lake Tahoe) with their bikes and surfboards, got off in Emeryville, rode the ferry into San Francisco, then pedaled out to Bolinas where they went surfing. Back to Truckee the same day. Truckee to SF: 195 miles.
Tangential Visit
Chris Ryan stopped by for a visit a few weeks ago on a cross-West road trip. Here he is standing in his Sprinter van.
Chris is a fascinating guy and his Tangentially Speaking is my most listened-to Substack. He’s also a heavy duty podcaster, with over 500 episodes, plus, he and his his equally fascinating partner Anya coordinate from time to time and I end up taking notes.
Stinson Beach Lifeguards circa 1960
1960 on a day off, we were heading out to to North Beach on the Point Reyes Peninsula to go surfing in my 1937 Chevy pickup truck (which had had square-cut gears, so you had to double-clutch both up and down through the gears.
66 years ago.
L-r: me, Jim Sylvia, my brother Bob, John Wiskovich, Jim Mc Gowan
One last panorama, the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco, thanks to Rick, who walked me through the (to moi) complex steps of saving the panorama so it can be loaded into Substack. I’m intrigued to rediscover this technique. It feels like I’m stepping into the photo.
Poppa’s got a brand new bag.
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Up betimes and among my joyners, and to my office, where the joyners are also laying mouldings in the inside of my closet.
Then abroad and by water to White Hall, and there got Sir G. Carteret to sign me my last quarter’s bills for my wages, and meeting with Mr. Creed he told me how my Lord Teviott hath received another attaque from Guyland at Tangier with 10,000 men, and at last, as is said, is come, after a personal treaty with him, to a good understanding and peace with him.
Thence to my brother’s, and there told him how my girl has served us which he sent me, and directed him to get my clothes again, and get the girl whipped.
So to other places by the way about small businesses, and so home, and after looking over all my workmen, I went by water and land to Deptford, and there found by appointment Sir W. Batten, but he was got to Mr. Waith’s to dinner, where I dined with him, a good dinner and good discourse, and his wife, I believe, a good woman. We fell in discourse of Captain Cocke, and how his lady has lost all her fine linen almost, but besides that they say she gives out she had 3000l. worth of linen, which we all laugh at, and Sir W. Batten (who I perceive is not so fond of the Captain as he used to be, and less of her, from her slight receiving of him and his lady it seems once) told me how he should say that he see he must spend 700l. per ann. get it how he could, which was a high speech, and by all men’s discover, his estate not good enough to spend so much.
After dinner altered our design to go to Woolwich, and put it off to to-morrow morning, and so went all to Greenwich (Mrs. Waith excepted, who went thither, but not to the same house with us, but to her father’s, that lives there), to the musique-house, where we had paltry musique, till the master organist came, whom by discourse I afterwards knew, having employed him for my Lord Sandwich, to prick out something (his name Arundell), and he did give me a fine voluntary or two, and so home by water, and at home I find my girl that run away brought by a bedel of St. Bride’s Parish, and stripped her and sent her away, and a newe one come, of Griffin’s helping to, which I think will prove a pretty girl. Her name, Susan, and so to supper after having this evening paid Mr. Hunt 3l. for my viall (besides the carving which I paid this day 10s. for to the carver), and he tells me that I may, without flattery, say, I have as good a Theorbo viall and viallin as is in England. So to bed.
This is the second half of the final part (I, IIa, IIb, III, IVa, IVb, Va, Vb) of our apparently five-part series laying out some general guidelines for how pre-modern armies are organized, with fictional worldbuilding and historical patterns in mind. Last time we started checking some fictional militaries against the general patterns we’ve laid out and we’re going to continue doing that this week.
This week, I want to turn to some of the more complex militaries structures we’ve discussed and I found they were more common in my repertoire of video games than film or literature, perhaps because the ultra-long-form structure of many video games provides a lot more space to explore complex institutions. So this week, we’re going to look at an example of a professional standing army in the Imperial Legion of The Elder Scrolls series, some private enterprise war through the Vailian Trading Company of Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire and the finally try to untangle the military system of Baldur’s Gate from the broader Forgotten Realms constructed world (including but not limited to Baldur’s Gate 3).
But first, as always, recruiting and maintaining large pre-modern armies is expensive! Much like many of those pre-modern armies, this project is supported by devolving the costs of my ruinous book-buying habit on to recruits readers. You can help by spreading the word to new readers and by supporting this project over at Patreon. If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).
The Imperial Legion
Now I should start by noting one of the obvious quirks of discussing any sort of worldbuilding when it comes to video games which is that video games are the product not of a single vision but of many hands, even more so than film or tv. After all, even just the dialogue of a single game is the product of more than one writer (Oblivion credits six ‘Quest Designers’ and two more for ‘Additional Writing,’ for instance) and of course a lot of the creative decisions are also made by artists, level designers and so on. And of course that team might be very different from one game to the next: there’s a lot of turnover from Morrowind to Skyrim.1 So it shouldn’t surprise us that there may be some inconsistencies or contradictions; nevertheless there is enough continuity here to proceed.
We can begin by sketching out our civilian society. I really think the society of The Elder Scrolls is something we should come back to in more depth, because while it often models itself as the most generic ‘generic fantasy world,’ it actually isn’t in some interesting ways. But we’ll have to stay brief here.
Tamriel (the world of The Elder Scrolls) is, like our previous examples, a complex agrarian society, but it is different in important ways: Tamriel is substantially more urban than either Westeros or Middle Earth. That isn’t just reflected in it having larger cities – these games city sizes are invariably products of graphical limitations, rather than direct one-to-one expressions of worldbuilding – but in the organization of society: in the places we’ve seen mostly clearly (Cyrodiil, Morrowind and Skyrim) the Cyrodiillic Empire (from here on, just ‘the Empire’ for short) is able to organize its administration entirely through urban centers. Castles – fortified private homes in the countryside – exist in this world, but local administration is urban, even in a relatively under-developed province like Skyrim, where each of the administrative divisions (‘Holds’) has a capital in an urban settlement, be that a major city for the larger holds (Riften, Windhelm, Whiterun, Markarth and Solitude all seem to be intended as major cities) or smaller towns for the lesser holds (Falkreath, Dawnstar, Morthal and Winterhold). This is a society organized around cities, rather more like the ancient Mediterranean world than medieval Europe in that regard (and given the frequent Roman theming of the Empire, this hardly seems like an accident). Still agrarian – most of what is going on is still farming – but meaningfully more urban.
The Empire is in turn organized into provinces (nine of them) roughly corresponding to the historic areas of settlement of its constituent fantasy races. Cyrodiil is the capital province and by far the largest (only Morrowind comes close and much of it is thinly settled) and most populous – it is the imperial core and its size and population helps explain why the government in Cyrodiil is able to more-or-less (mostly less, by the time of Skyrim) hold the rest of Tamriel. Each of the provinces has its own internal customary local systems of government. That may seem strange but pre-modern territorial empires often left local ruling systems in place when they could and Cyrodiil does as well. In Cyrodiil proper, we see the province is divided into sub-regions (Counties) with a local ruler (a count) who is strongly subordinated to the center. While the position of count is hereditary, the position has very limited authority (as the wiki notes). in practice, Cyrodiil itself is a state with one legal system dictated from the capital and local ‘rulers’ reduced mostly to functionaries who implement that system, rather than independent powers in their own right.
Via the Unofficial Elder Scrolls Page wiki, the map of Tamriel released alongside Oblivion, which has been the standard map of the whole empire since that game. You can see that Cyrodiil is much larger than any other province, which is remarkable because it is also more densely peopled than any other province as well.
Outside of Cyrodiil, local communities are organized by local laws under local leaders: Morrowind is still ruled by its Great Houses, each with their own territory, while Skyrim is ruled by its Jarls. These entities retain their own local militaries independent of the Empire and so we ought to understand the periphery here as consisting of vassal polities. In short the state part of the Empire is Cyrodiil (and perhaps small parts of the other provinces), but much of the area it rules is non-state client rulers. That also shouldn’t be surprising: this was the normal structure for a lot of large empires – the empires of the Late Bronze Age come to mind especially. Notably though – and we’ll come back to this – the Imperial Legions (the military force of the Empire proper) maintain pretty obvious ‘escalation dominance’ over Cyrodiil’s vassals (at least until things get pear-shaped in Skyrim).2
So we have a fairly well-consolidated state in Cyrodiil which provides the imperial core for the Empire and then a periphery of vassal state- and non-state polities (mostly non-state, as we see them) which the Empire very much controls. How does the military system map onto that?
Surprisingly well, actually, so long as we account for the limitations in scale imposed by the genre (an RPG cannot have 90,000 men on the screen or it will crash) and the requirement for things like ‘town guards’ (so they player doesn’t murder-hobo entire towns).
The political structure (an imperial government with a core territory that also rules over vassal polities) is mirrored in the military structure: there is both the Imperial Legion but also local military forces. In Oblivion, these local forces (commanded by the counts) are little more than constabularies, something that actually is expressed pretty well in-game by how immediately out-matched they are by the Oblivion Crisis compared to the heavier forces of the Imperial Legion. In Morrowind and Skyrim, the forces of the local governments (the Jarls in Skyrim, the [dissertation on the wonderfully complex government of Morrowind here] in Morrowind) look to be quite a bit more substantial: particularly in Morrowind, one gets the sense that the armies of the Great Houses and of the Tribunal Temple are quite formidable (heavier, more expensive equipment, more magic, and so on), even if not a match for the Imperial Legion itself.3 That makes sense: in order to maintain control, the Imperial Legion has to maintain ‘escalation dominance’ – the ability to win at higher levels of escalation (thus dissuading potential foes from escalating) – over the many regional armies of the empire’s provinces.
Via the Unofficial Elder Scrolls Wiki, a selection of Imperial Legion soldiers, with rank descending from left to right. You can see quite clearly that this is n army with relatively uniform, rank-stratified equipment. The largest difference is gender-based (some armor looks different on women and female legionaries tend to wear skirts in addition to their armor), but by and large the legion is uniform apart from very low ranking recruits.
The major problem with the local military forces is that they appear to be standing forces to a substantial degree. We see a lot of ‘guards’ standing around on duty and such. But in practice, such local rulers aren’t going to have much need for a standing military force on duty all the time: most communities have sporadic security needs and small communities generally do not even require much of a permanent, standing constabulary. Instead, we might expect the permanent force to be a small retinue around the local ruler (we actually do see this in Skyrim with the concept of thanes), but beyond that, we might expect a ‘raised for the moment’ form of military organization: some sort of levy or militia, possibly with a standing component that is just a rotating period of duty among those liable to be drawn into the full militia in an emergency (a select levy to go with the general levy). In that case, ‘guard’ wouldn’t so much be a career as it would be something like a two-week shift every year that you had to do, effectively as part of your taxes.
The Imperial Legion (or legions) itself is also a recognizable structure: it seems pretty clearly to be a professional army. Members of the legion are very clearly deployed far from home (a point often exemplified by the legion’s multicultural recruiting) on a permanent basis and are full-time soldiers. Recruiting seems to be done through volunteers. While we see some recruitment of local auxiliary forces in Skyrim, these tend to be lighter troops and might be local auxiliaries: the clear nucleus of the force, we’re told, arrived with General Tullius from Cyrodiil. The legion is most often stationed in permanent fortifications (we see a lot in Morrowind) or key cities (like the Imperial City in Oblivion) – it is not a local militia and makes no effort to be ‘everywhere.’ Its equipment is remarkably (though not perfectly) uniform even in regions where its styles are distinctly foreign such as Morrowind or Skyrim, suggesting that equipment is state-issued and somewhat standardized. It also seems to be a long-service professional organization: we see quite a few ‘old soldiers’ still serving, both in desk-jobs and in combat roles.
A pair of Imperial Legion soldiers from Oblivion. While they retain some of their Roman theme (including an out-of-place Corinthian style helmet that I think is supposed to give Roman vibes, even though it is Greek-inspired), it is striking how much heavier the armor’s design is here than in either Morrowind or Skyrim. It makes the distinction between the plate-armored Imperial Legion and mail-armored town guards very visually striking.
And this is a structure that actually makes a fair bit of sense for a state like this: vassal rulers retain smaller local forces and the Empire largely lets them deal with the day-to-day work of order and administration. Meanwhile, the imperial center, with its greater resources, maintains a large, professional, well-equipped standing army that enables it to coerce those local rulers as well as engage in large-scale warfare. One imagines that, in the event of a major security threat, we’d see the Imperial Legion forces form the core of a field army, probably supplemented by non-legion local forces. The amusing thing is, while I think the developers imagine this structure as ‘Roman-ish,’ the state it actually recalls to me most clearly is the Neo-Assyrian Empire (fl. 911-626) which maintained a core professional army of full-time infantrymen (in matched pairs of archers and shield-bearers) who were then supported by levies drawn up from the empire’s vassals.4
The Imperial Legion in Skyrim. It is interesting that the legion seems a bit lighter in terms of equipment in Skyrim as compared to previous entries (although the pseudo-Roman theme remains clear). I wonder if this was an effort to more clearly express that the Empire is ‘on the ropes’ in Skyrim’s time period as compared to previous games, or simply a product of the decision to almost evenly divide the Legion between heavy and light armor troops (whereas Stormcloaks and town guards are mostly light armor types).
What I think is somewhat underdeveloped – especially in Oblivion and Skyrim – is the apparatus to pay for all of this. While other kinds of military systems can have their costs effectively devolved, a state-equipped professional army has to be paid out of the treasury, which in turn demands a state with the ability to raise a lot of revenue. Because it is a volunteer professional army, these soldiers would have to be well paid in order to recruit and retain them. Notably, we do not see in The Elder Scrolls, any indication that these costs are being defrayed by private enterprise war – the Imperial Legion is not a contractor-based army and commissions in its officer corps are not purchased, but awarded based in merit and internal promotion.
Now that’s not to say we don’t see any of that apparatus. The Empire clearly raises revenue both through taxes and through state-chartered monopolies. One of the first things we see in Morrowind is the Syda Neen Census and Excise Office, suggesting both head and excise taxes (excise taxes are taxes on specific goods) and there is a quest related to local tax collection. That said, the tax infrastructure in Morrowind is relatively minimal and that makes sense: most of the game takes place on Vvardenfel, which is only in the initial stages of having imperial control established. Notably, what collection we do see is in ports, suggesting customs and excise taxes may be central here, which also makes sense for a region that is only slowly being brought fully into central administration: port duties and excise taxes on luxury goods (I recall, but cannot find the line of dialogue, where we’re told that the excise taxes are on alcohol) are easier and quicker things to set up.
But what we don’t see is a more focused and intense extraction system in Cyrodiil or especially in Skyrim. By the time Skyrim takes place, the Empire is no longer at peace, but is recovering from a large war and trying to rapidly prepare for its seemingly inevitable sequel, which should demand high revenues and thus that taxes would be high as well. Yet ‘tax revolt’ is nowhere in the Stormcloak rebellion’s motivation (they’re focused more on religious persecution and ethno-nationalism) and we see almost none of the apparatus of extraction that we ought to see for a province that has been long-held by the Empire. The same is broadly true for Cyrodiil, though there are a couple of quests in Oblivion related to things like port taxes in Anvil and such.
Alongside that fairly minimal taxation apparatus, we have another major revenue source, which is the East Empire Company, a fairly obvious riff off of the British East India Company (even borrowing the ‘East’ despite appearing in places like Skyrim that are…not in the East), a massive vertically integrated company with a bunch of state-chartered monopolies on luxury goods. That is a very historically rooted way for a state to raise revenue, of course. The problem is that it isn’t enough. Recall, Tamriel is a complex agrarian society: we see no hint of even early mass manufacture, much less industry, so the overwhelming majority of economic activity is going to be in agriculture and pastoralism. That in turn necessarily means that the revenues generated from something like the East Empire Company are going to be somewhat marginal to the state itself. The Roman Empire had, for instance, a slew of state monopolies (on things like silver mines) as well as rents on state-controlled lands and resources which the Romans collectively called vectigalia, but it is very clear that the large majority of Roman taxes were what the Romans called tributum: taxes assessed on agricultural land or produce.
So what we ought to see in order to complete the Imperial Legions is the infrastructure, particularly in Cyrodiil and Skyrim, for substantial tax collection on the common folk, particularly on agriculture. Now that could be structured in two ways: we could see (as we do in Morrowind) direct imperial taxation, with imperial officials in each settlement assessing taxes themselves. Now those officials might be direct employees of the Empire, but an equally likely solution (which we do seem to see in Morrowind in Caldera, as I recall) are tax farmers: private businessmen who have contracted to do tax collection in an area.
Alternately, the Empire might do what the Romans eventually did: assess taxes on communities and leave it up to local leaders and governments on how to collect those taxes. Given how visible and important local ‘vassal’ rulers are in the Empire, this seems to me the more likely solution: tell the local Jarl or Count or Great House that it is responsible for raising a specific amount of money (or revenue in kind, so a specific amount of grain or recruits or whatever else) and then let them sort it out with their own local administrative apparatus. That said, if this was the system, we ought to hear about it more, especially in Skyrim where the local revolt against the Empire ought to mean that imperial taxes are being collected in some places and are not being collected in others.
All of that said, the fact that the Empire in The Elder Scrolls has a somewhat fragmented structure and then has a fragmented military apparatus – with a professional army enforcing imperial power over a bunch of much smaller local militaries which do the day-to-day work of maintaining law and order – works as a reflection of the society we’re shown. What is missing is mostly just the apparatus of empire itself, which has really been neglected in the setting’s worldbuilding since Morrowind.
The Vailian Trading Company
That said, bringing up the East Empire Trading Company of the Elder Scrolls games highlights one odditiy: the EEC lacks its own military force, instead relying primarily on the Imperial Legion (something we see clearly in Solstheim) and only occasionally on local goons. But of course a massive, state-chartered trading company of this sort is frequently going to have to operate far from the center of imperial control and potentially with local communities that object quite loudly to being so obviously exploited. As a result, these sorts of ‘mega-corps’ tend to operate their own independent military forces: the societates of Roman publicani that managed the tax-farming system (prior to Augustus’ reforms to the largely community-centered tax system mentioned above, though some taxes remained farmed) maintained private security forces we can see clearly in documentary evidence from Roman Egypt, while early modern trading ‘mega-corps’ like the British East India Company or the Dutch VOC maintained full-on private militaries, complete with armies and warships.
But we do see that structure in Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire. And let me also just say: if you are a fan of classic computer role-playing games (BG3, Wrath of the Righteous, Rogue Trader, Solasta, that sort of thing), you really ought to give Deadfire a spin. It is very good and very tightly written (and the stronger of the two Pillars games). It’s also, I think, a better introduction to Eora than the more recent Avowed and I really liked Avowed.
Here the setting is the Deadfire Archipelago, a smaller region in the larger world of Eora, with three principle military powers along with a fourth minor power (the Principi sen Patrena, a very loose pirate confederation that survives to a significant degree in the shatter-zone created by the other three that we’ll leave aside here) and all three are actually pretty well realized. The actually indigenous local power are the Huana. They are significantly fragmented: the strongest tribe (the Kahanga) are a complex agrarian society with a large capital city (Neketaka) that exert an imperial overlordship over smaller tribes and communities in their periphery. Their society is a caste-based one and their military structure follows that: the priests (including ‘Shapers’ who wield powerful magic) and the warriors both are drawn from the highest caste, the Mataru, which thus acts as a hereditary military-and-religious aristocracy which also – not by accident – controls most of the wealth. Their military is thus drawn primarily from this upper-class, drawing its cohesive principle from the exclusivity and strong social expectations for that class, financed by the wealth of its role as the ruling elite (that is to say, wealth extracted from the lower, worker classes). But of course that system imposes strong limits too: the military cannot be readily expanded beyond those classes effectively and the entrenched class interests of the elite render the Huana military static and unresponsive to new technology – though formidable, their position relative to rivals is deteriorating. As a result, the player’s interactions with the Huana are always contextualized by the Huana leadership’s own sense of growing military vulnerability to incursions from foreign colonial powers, of which they have two.
From Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire, the Huana capital of Neketaka. The vertical structure replicates the class structure: the military and religious castes are at the top and their trash and refuse literally flow down to the artisan and eventually worker castes at the bottom. It is a neat visual expression of the society made all the more striking by Queen’s Berth (controlled by the VTC) and the Brass Citadel (controlled by the RDC) strangling the city economically from the bottom up. The player can side with the Huana, but their rulers are not interested in changing their culture and it is hard to see how their rigid, unchanging social system can hold out against the dynamic, predatory invaders for long. Deadfire is a really good RPG and I really encourage you to give it a try if you haven’t.
The first is the Royal Deadfire Company, which represents the distant maritime kingdom of Rauatai in the Archipelago. The name is something of a euphemism: the institution began as the Rauatai Trading Company, but was brought under the direct control of the ruler of Rauatai (the ranga-nui) and converted into the RDC, which in practice isn’t really a trade company anymore, but an expeditionary force, an army of the government of Rauatai which aims to conquer the region – albeit gradually, because the Huana are still strong enough to make a direct war of conquest a risky proposition. The RDC is thus effectively an expeditionary force of professional soldiers, funded and maintained by Rauatai (itself a large maritime empire) doing ‘ports-and-forts‘ imperialism. Consequently, what we see of them are fortified staging posts (notably Hasongo) to support their navies and channel goods back to the homeland and nearly all of the people we see are military personnel more or less directly employed by the Rauataian state.
Via the Wiki, the Rauataian main base at Hasongo (which has been better days). While there is a port and storage here, you can very visibly see this is a military outpost first and barely a civilian settlement at all. The contrast with the VTC outposts, which almost invariably have a large local population and lots of civilian economic activity, is marked. The RDC is a predatory, exploitative army of conquest, whereas the VTC is a predatory, exploitative company.
Notably, as an aside, we don’t get as much information about the rest of Rauatai’s military that I recall. Honestly, I’d think something like a core army of conscripts might make sense (given how militarized the society is described as being), with only the forces deployed permanently abroad (like the RDC) being composed of professional ‘long-timers.’
In contrast to the RDC which is almost an army of a foreign state, the third power really is a trading company first: the Vailian Trading Company (itself a pretty clear echo of the Dutch VOC, down to the similar acronym). One oddity worth noting is that the VTC is not attached to one state, but several, representing the combined efforts of the Vailian Republics, a loose confederation of city-states. The nearest historical parallel here may actually be something like the historical Hanseatic League. But where the RDC is essentially an arm of the Rauataian state, the VTC is doing something different: private enterprise war. The VTC is a company, run by a board of directors, answerable to investors in the Vailian Republics under a charter sanctions by their confederation.
From the Wiki, the banner of the Vailian Trading Company. The five stars are meant to indicate the company is recognized by all five of the major constituent Vailian Republics.
And (unlike the EEC of the Elder Scrolls series), it has its own military to secure and advance its operations, every bit as predatory as the RDC. And what we see – and I think this makes sense for the society being presented – is a contractor-based military. Indeed, we meet one of these contractors, Atello Valera, who the VTC has contracted to provide a pretty large security presence, including a number of warships. What I do think is missing here is a greater array of contractors and sub-contractors. Realistically, we might expect the regional heads of the VTC (Ignato Castol and Lueva Alvari, who split maritime and land-based operations between them) to have a few key contractors (whatever the Vailian equivalent to colonels or condottiere is), who would then have sub-contractors running individual ships or companies, with basically everyone in the chain effectively functioning as a sort of ‘military entrepreneur.’ We do get a real sense of that entrepreneurship from the Valeras, but they ought not be the ‘only game in town’ on the military side.
From Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire, some VTC troops. There’s actually neat visual storytelling here. The soldier on the far left is a company guard and by far the heaviest armed. Next the three fellows in the one picture are Valera family soldiers, their lighter equipment fitting with the fact that Valera is a naval military contractor. Meanwhile the two figures on the far right are soldiers contracted under the Bardattos and resemble more closely the ‘average’ VTC soldier we see throughout the game. The VTC, in short, has a bunch of different people contracting soldiers for different tasks, so while there’s a clear cultural similarity in their equipment, it isn’t uniform (unlike the RDC, which is quite uniform!)
That said, I think Deadfire actually does a good job of correlating militaries and societies: the Huana, Rauatai and Vailians have quite different societies and thus quite different militaries: a warrior-class military with devolved costs that fits the caste-based Huana society, a professional military with standardized state equipment and regular pay that fits the very centralized Rauataian state and finally a private enterprise warfare military using military contractors that fits the decentralized structure of the Vailian Republics.
Defending Baldur’s Gate
Now we turn to the unusual military structure of Baldur’s Gate, drawing not just on the recent Baldur’s Gate 3, but more broadly on the lore of the city as part of the Forgotten Realms setting. We’re picking one city to focus on in part because it has become the most visible part of the Forgotten Realms’ setting and also because, to be frank, the military, social and economic structures of the Forgotten Realms are kind of a mess. That’s not necessarily a harsh criticism – this was a setting built for specific purposes (facilitating D&D gameplay) rather than worldbuilding verisimilitude. But that still makes them interesting to talk about from this perspective because they often test public assumptions about what pre-modern societies look like.
(Note that in BG3 one of the major plot-points is an effort by one of the villains to unbalance the city’s military system by adding on an army of evil metal golems to it, in a bid to take over. I’m going to leave that part out here, because the Steel Watchers aren’t part of the stable military system of Baldur’s Gate. Ironically, if Gortash had succeeded, the military system of Baldur’s Gate would make a lot more sense: you’d have a tyrant monarch who ruled the city by virtue of controlling its military.)
Via the Wiki, a screenshot of Baldur’s Gate as it appears in Baldur’s Gate III.
Baldur’s Gate, in the setting, is a major seaside mercantile city with a large population, clearly part of a larger complex agrarian society. Its upper-class are wealthy burghers (rather than large landowners) and it is ruled by a council of four ‘grand dukes’ who are elected for life.5 It is also a big city by pre-modern standards: the wiki figures a population around 120,000 or so in the urban area.
Now one thing in the lore is that because the city has a natural defensive position (it is located on an inlet) and because it has a very strong outer wall built by the heroic figure Balduran, for whom the city is named, that it is generally peaceful and does not necessarily require a large army. The problem here of course is that Baldur’s Gate doesn’t just need to defend the city core, it needs to defend the agricultural hinterland that feeds it. This is a common problem in fantasy worldbuilding – cities divorced from the agricultural lands they require to survive. Nor can this issue be salvaged by saying the Baldur’s Gate is a city that lives on trade and such. These are agrarian societies, which is to say that food production (via farming) makes up the lion’s share of the economy, with textile production (also via pastoralism, agriculture and peasant labor) making up quite a lot of the rest. Consequently, in the absence of industrial production, there’s no amount of economic activity you can be doing in the remaining small slice (think 10-20% at most) of the economy that is going to allow a city to import all of its food and fabric. The only activity that can manage this feat is empire: the (violent) extraction if someone else’s food and fabric, in which case you still have a hinterland, it is simply held by force and coercion.6The city needs a hinterlandand it needs to be defended.
That said, Baldur’s Gate does have an army – indeed it has one-and-a-half armies, in practice. Order in the upper city is kept by an armed constabulary called The Watch which, according to the Wiki, has about a thousand members, of whom perhaps 300 or so are on active duty at any given time, making this effectively a civic militia. What keeps the Watch from acting fully like a military is that they are not empowered to operate outside of the city walls. Amusingly to me, this force of – at any given moment – 300 active soldiers and 700 or so reservists, somehow rates a high command with six major generals and two more senior generals despite being no bigger than a battalion (which would normally by commanded by just one major or captain in our world).
Instead, the main force of Baldur’s Gate’s defense is the Flaming Fist, a mercenary company kept essentially on permanent retainer by the city. It is a standing, effectively professional force, organized on the employment principle, consisting of – according to the wiki – approximately 2,000 soldiers (with a peak strength of 6,000). The Flaming Fist was founded by a grand duke and it seems like its leader (the marshal) is generally one of the four grand dukes that governs the city.
Via the Wiki, the Flaming Fist doing some recruitment. It is striking how heavy and expensive their equipment is. Maintaining this organization on a permanent basis would be extraordinarily expensive, which if I was a citizen of Baldur’s Gate would get really frustrating, because as far as I can tell the Flaming Fist’s job is to spend the first two acts of every story about the place losing until the heroes show up and save everyone.
And there are a few problems here. The first is a problem that afflicts a lot of Forgotten Realms armies which is this is not enough army. A city-state with more than 100,000 people in the core urban area certainly ought to be able to muster up a much larger army. Medieval Ghent had a population by the late Middle Ages around 50,000 and was able to put something on the order of 8,000 men on the field to fight against the city militia of Bruges in 1382 and they were outnumbered by the Bruges militia. Baldur’s Gate is well over twice the size and yet has a far smaller total force. Indeed, its fairly close in size to Classical Athens (especially if we account for the missing rural countryside a city of that size must have), which was able to deploy more than 12,000 men against Syracuse, supported by roughly 200 triremes (so around 40,000 rowers) and was able to recover from the total loss of that force.
But that size problem gets us to an underlying problem in matching up this type of society, its resources and security needs with the kind of army it has. If we put the Watch aside for now, the primary defense force for Baldur’s Gate are the Flaming Fists and while the lore describes these fellows as a mercenary company because they sometimes take jobs outside of Baldur’s Gate, they’re really a standing army. No one is going to mistake your mercenary company for an independent outfit if it is also traditional that the marshal of the company is also one of the four elected leaders of the city. That’s not an independent mercenary company being hired, that’s a political alliance with Baldur’s Gate enabling another community to gain the protection of its army.
But you may recall as we discussed recruitment and payment principles that the state-supplied (the Flaming Fists have standardized equipment), full-time, long-service professional army is almost exclusively a creature of large, well-administered empires and there’s a reason for that. For one, only such a large and complex state is capable of mobilizing the resources necessary for such an expensive system and equally only large empires have the kind of round-the-clock security needs to justify one. That is, after all, the feature that makes professional armies so expensive: they have to be fed, paid, housed and equipped in wartime as well as peacetime – there is no option to simply send the men back to their homes and jobs. Thus, while smaller states might maintain a small standing force – a prince’s retinue, a small elite unit or a constabulary force – their military is not built around that force, it is built around forces which can be expanded and contracted to fit changing security needs.
As an aside, this is part of why we can’t just say the Flaming Fist function basically as a condottieri force. Italian states raised condottieri in response to specific military threats – they did not maintain them continuously in peacetime. Indeed, one of the key advantages of condottieri was precisely that: you could pay them in war time and not pay them in peace time, though of course they were also famously untrustworthy.
The Flaming Fists also do not fit the political structure of Baldur’s Gate. There is a reason that states which do use standing armies tend to have a unitary power structure, like a monarchy, because the very nature of a long-service standing professional army is that whoever wields that army is the state. Baldur’s Gate is ruled by four high officials who serve for life, three of whom collectively share control over a gendarmerie of 300-part timers and one of whom has control over and the loyalty of a standing for of at least 2,000 professional full-time soldiers. That is a system that becomes a monarchy very fast. Political power here is fragmented, but for some reason military power is not, which is hardly a stable structure.
And finally, the Flaming Fists do not fit the social structure of Baldur’s Gate either. This is a city dominated by a class of wealthy burghers (the ‘patriars,’ a clear riff off of Roman patricians), whose wealth mostly comes from trade or non-agricultural business. That’s fine – there really should be a landholding aristocracy somewhere too – but the problem is that this class is nowhere represented in the military structure. It’s the ruling class, whose interests the military system is intended to protect yet these families do not make up the elite of the military, nor its officer class.
We can effectively go in two directions ‘fixing’ Baldur’s Gate: we can make the society fit the military or the military fit the society. In the first direction: a city which has a professional military force that answers to just one guy (the marshal of the Flaming Fists) isn’t going to be an oligarchic quasi-democracy. It is going to be some kind of autocracy: the marshal is going to be the autocrat who sets the rules, de iure (as a monarchy) or de facto (as a tyranny). In this case, the weakness of the Watch makes sense: this was the city’s old militia, now sidelined because it would threaten the power of a tyrant-marshal, who is probably also busy breaking the power of the old ruling class (the patriars) and consolidating their wealth into his own political network. Alternately, we might get a sort of monarchy-within-bounds as we see in Venice and to an extent (with its two kings) in classical Sparta: a single leader does have command over the military, but the rest of the political system is heavily focused on constraining that leader, to the point that they have officials whose sole job is to watch their every move and there are other political institutions empowered to unilaterally remove a marshal who behaves badly. Even then, a purely professional force seems like a recipe for a self-coup in which the marshal sidelines everyone else because he alone commands the loyalty of the Flaming Fists, whatever the political system may say.
The alternative is to come up with a military system that fits the society we see: a somewhat representative oligarchy (with some democratic elements) primarily lead by a handful of elite families that wield outsized wealth. That kind of society has little need for a large standing army at all: the people with goons are also the people who wield political power and so the system they need is one that catches petty thieves and resolves disputes between each other, not a system to garrison whole districts of the city. The Flaming Fists are unnecessary for such a society (though the Watch as a gendarmerie which serves the collective interests of the patriars might survive).
Now those elite families could tax themselves extremely harshly in order to maintain a meaningful standing army but why would they? Instead, we ought to expect that Baldur’s Gate would defend itself with a civic militia that mirrors its own social structure: the very poor are excluded (and probably don’t vote), while the bulk of the burghers fight as infantry (and have some token political participation) and the patriars serve as officers and cavalry (and have maximum political roles). Because the patriars – or the middling burghers – would rather not tax themselves, they’re going to devolve military costs: everyone buys their own kit and serves based on wealth. That system might take the form of the sort of conscription-based civic armies we see in Greece and Rome or it might take the form of medieval civic militias, like the aforementioned schuttersgilde. If the latter, we should expect those military guilds to be major political actors in the city’s governance, either de iure (they have fixed places on the ruling council or whatever) or de facto (their members just tend always to get elected). Crucially, unlike the Flaming Fists, they wouldn’t be external to the city’s class system, but tightly integrated into it.
Conclusions
This series has ended up rather a lot longer-winded than I intended, but what I hope it has served to demonstrate first is that not all societies have the same sorts of armies. My critiques here have focused mostly on complex agrarian societies, because this was a series for worldbuilders and that is most of what fantasy worlds get made out of, but of course the armies of nomadic pastoral peoples or hunter gatherers are really different as well.
Importantly, societies do not pick their military structures at random, nor are they necessarily free to pick and choose whatever military system they like. Instead, military systems, which are defined by the interaction of principles of recruitment, methods of mobilization, systems of equipment, payment and supply and sources of cohesion are generally long-standing legacy institutions that emerge alongside larger social structures. Individual leaders are rarely at leisure to change or redefine these systems (though it does happen sometimes).
Perhaps most importantly, these systems are invariably tightly connected to the structure of a society and its political organization. No army can help but recreate its civilian social structures on the battlefield. So a society in which the dominant political and economic force is a mass of middling farmers who elect their leaders are likely to form armies composed of a mass of infantrymen who elect their generals. A society in which a handful of elites lord over the disenfranchised and largely impoverished peasantry is likely to have armies centered on mounted elites, with infantry that is limited and unreliable at best. More complex forms of organization, like private enterprise war with military contractors or standing, long-service professional armies, demand states with matching levels of revenues and complexity as well as a set of security needs which demand these expensive, complex and difficult solutions to the problem of raising military force.
While those rules may feel constraining, I think – and I hope in this post and the last, I’ve shown – they can also, for the worldbuilder, offer storytelling opportunities. After all, if armies reproduce their society’s social structures – often more explicitly than the civilian society itself – that means any time an army is ‘on screen,’ it provides an opportunity to say something about the underlying society. An observer who noticed, for instance that British military leadership in the early 1900s was generally drawn from the same handful of schools would have learned something about the structure of power in British society. The same might be said if the person glanced at Europe and noticed that despite its modern industrial economy, most of the high military command of early 1900s Germany in the first World War continued to be drawn from the old Junker class (visible because of the ‘von’ in their names), a trend which continued into the second.
And indeed, someone who glanced at the modern American military and noticed that American officers functionally always have college degrees, that high ranking officers generally have advanced degrees and that American enlisted personnel generally do not have either will have learned something about the structure of class, power and wealth in the United States: our ruling class is defined more by where you went to school and for how long than by your last name or hereditary titles (which we do not have). And the military cannot help but replicate that structure.
The same is equally true in fictional worlds. Of course one shortcut to producing these kinds of interesting linkages is to adopt a historical pattern wholesale by imitating a real polity and making modest changes. That said, it can be equally interesting to think about the implications of odd combinations, especially for societies in transition. Because, of course, societies are never static things and as they change – be that change swift or slow – their military structures will be forced to change with them, or else will be bent and deformed by the attempt not to change. In fiction, civil-military failure can be as interesting as success.
And in the end, a society whose institutions are interwoven and interlinked – as all real societies are – is just more interesting to read about than a fictional society which is a mere jumble of tropes.
Unfortunately, last week’s improvements have reversed. As of Friday 9am, D.C. has reported has three new homicides this week, bringing the total for the year to 68*. Last year, during the same time period, we had 101 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, there were 170 homicides during that time.
Unfortunately, non-violent crime categories trended upwards, other violent crimes declined. It’s still unclear if we will achieve another 33 percent drop in homicides for the third straight year–a trend that began pre-occupation, in the Biden era. Acutally, it seems unlikely: I hope we only have seventeen or fewer homicides in the remainder of this year, but that doesn’t seem likely. Stunning anti-crime policies by Trump et alia.
Here’s to hoping that next week gets us back to a zero homicide week.
*Three of the 71 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence).
Back in May, my original NYC plan was to do five or six days of huge walks while running a pop-up newsletter — basically go walk bananas in the city. But then I stopped for a second and thought: What if I just … enjoyed NYC? And so I did. I did the thing I have a hard time doing — simply enjoying a place or trip instead of turning it into a project.
This sort of research is both exciting and terrifying:
The two models in question were told to generate complete genomes for a viable bacteriophage—a type of virus able to infect and replicate itself inside bacteria, destroying them from the inside.
Using an existing bacteriophage as an example—ΦX174 (pronounced “fie-ex-1-7-4”), known for its ability to infect and destroy E. coli bacteria—the models generated about 700,000 potential designs, of which the researchers picked 285 that looked most promising.
The researchers then synthesised new DNA molecules using those designs and inserted them into E. coli bacteria, before waiting to see if viable bacteriophages would emerge.
Shortly afterwards, 16 of the Petri dishes in which the bacteria were growing began to show clear spots, as the viruses began to attack and replicate themselves inside the E. coli, demonstrating their viability.
Some of those viable viruses proved more effective at attacking E. coli than the original ΦX174 bacteriophage.
That’s a positive use of a synthetic virus. We can all imagine the negative uses.
The AI Security Institute has a new report of AI systems engaging in “unsanctioned behavior”—what I have been calling “genie behavior—while being tested on their cybersecurity capabilities.
The incident stemmed from a single evaluation where agents were given a task of solving a cyber security challenge. We ran this challenge 122 times across several models. Our investigation found that in 10 of those runs, an AI agent took autonomous, unsanctioned action on the live internet, targeting real people and organisations. In total, we catalogued 19 such actions. Almost all of this behaviour (17 actions) came from a single model, Anthropic’s Mythos 5, with 2 actions involving OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-Sol with cyber classifiers (mechanisms to prevent misuse) disabled. In the most serious case, an agent tried to insert malicious code into an open-source project. In an attempt to get the code approved, the agent engaged in social engineering—creating fake online identities and using them to pressure the project’s maintainer to approve the code. A human maintainer caught and refused to approve the malicious code.
[…]
Below, we highlight the four most significant behaviours observed. A full summary of cases is available in our technical incident report.
An attempted supply-chain attack on real open-source software. In the most serious sequence, an agent tried to insert malicious code into a publicly used open-source project and took actions in an attempt to secure approval for this insertion by human reviewers. The agent researched the project’s human maintainers, created multiple fake identities, and used the fake identities to socially engineer a real maintainer into approving the code. When the agent’s pull request was challenged in public, it edited its earlier activity to appear harmless and considered adopting a fresh identity to continue. The agent used Tor to bypass some network restrictions on GitHub, which is what first triggered AISI’s security alert.
Attempts to deceive and target real people. As part of the same effort, the agent tried to contact real people directly, sending messages and files through an online file-transfer service to persuade them, or their own AI coding tools, to run malicious code. Some messages carried harmful payloads, and some were attempts at social engineering; targeted at real people—something we’ve never previously observed.
Attempts to plant and prompt-inject malicious code. The agent tried to insert malicious instructions where it reasoned that other automated AI systems might pick them up and execute them. Prompt-injections are hidden instructions designed to manipulate AI coding assistants.
Collaboration between independent agents being assessed simultaneously. One agent left public messages on GitHub offering collaboration with other agents working on the same challenge. It also provided instructions to reuse accounts and artefacts it had left behind, which were discovered and used by subsequent agents.
What’s especially interesting about this technical report is that, unlike what we’ve been getting from OpenAI and Anthropic, we can see the exact prompt. It’s in Appendix B. And reading it, it seems that the models didn’t break any rules—they found loopholes in the rules. They behaved like a genie.
A Falcon 9 rocket stands poised to launch from the Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. File Photo: SpaceX
Update Aug. 22, 3:51 a.m. EDT (0751 UTC): SpaceX landed the first stage booster on the droneship.
SpaceX launched its 100th orbital mission of the year shortly after midnight on Saturday morning. Its Falcon 9 rocket took off from Vandenberg Space Force Base on a Starlink delivery.
The Starlink 15-20 mission added another 29 broadband internet satellites to the company’s megaconstellation in low Earth orbit. SpaceX founder Elon Musk confirmed on Friday that it now has more than 11,000 Starlink satellites in orbit.
Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East happened at 12:25 a.m. PDT (3:25 a.m. EDT / 0725 UTC). The rocket flew on a south-easterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.
SpaceX launched this mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1100. This was its ninth flight after previously launching the NROL-105 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office as well as seven batches of Starlink satellites.
Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1100 landed on the droneship, Of Course I Still Love You, positioned in the Pacific Ocean. This was the 220th landing on this vessel and the 653rd Falcon booster landing to date.
These days, the conversation in tech and business, and in a lot of society, is still all AI, all the time. And one of the most fundamental questions boils down to: How do you get people to change what they’re doing in regard to AI? For people who (understandably) have moral or ethical objections to the many harms caused by Big AI, there’s the challenge of how to drive action while lacking the resources and capital of the tech tycoons who’ve driven the broad cultural push towards AI adoption.
As a result of the power differential between those pushing AI and those fighting its advances, the typical rhetorical tactic for AI critics has been to try to attach stigma to the use of AI, and to the outputs of AI systems. There is also little cultural discussion, or even mention, of alternative offerings that aren’t from the Big AI companies, so the entire narrative is framed as either using the most harmful, exploitative, damaging AI tools from the likes of OpenAI, or using nothing at all.
And for the most part, this has been pretty effective for people who have any taste or sense of culture. If you’re a creator, or engaged in creative culture, you probably either can’t stand the AI aesthetic, or feel betrayed when you find out something that was appealing to you was AI-generated or made by someone who used generative AI to create it. The only creative discipline that’s broadly an exception to this is coding, where for the most part people don’t have as many aesthetic objections, but even there, people pretty stridently object to the slop aesthetic in user interfaces and other human-facing aspects.
There are, of course, diehard cohorts of AI advocates who insist that they love the AI aesthetic and don’t mind the hyper-real look to what these systems output, but the mainstream discourse in the arts, design and creative disciplines reached a consensus some time ago, and it’s fairly stringently enforced amongst fan communities.
But shame isn’t an effective strategy for stopping the advance of Big AI as a force in society. I’ve said before that scolding people out of using these tools hasn’t worked and isn’t going to work. What I want to get at here is why it structurally can’t work — and what has to replace it.
Shame is already priced in
I wish shame and stigma were more effective ways of driving or changing behavior in society in general. It has been a project in many social circles over the last 15 years or so to remove shame as a social curb on bad behaviors, and this has largely succeeded; this is why we see the richest man in the world monetizing accounts that share child sexual abuse material on his social network, and the president of the United States having been found liable for sexual abuse, and no one holds these men to account, or is even unwilling to be seen with them. Having grown up fluent in an Asian culture, I’m well aware of how shame can shape entire communities’ functions and norms.
But in the particular case of how new technologies shape society, trying to use shame to drive behavior change isn’t an economically effective tool for curtailing the impact of bad actors. During the rise of the social networks, when we first started seeing the kinds of harms that they could cause, many activists and academics who wanted to champion alternative approaches tried to shame people out of using the then-dominant platforms. That stigma persists — you still see people today who are half-embarrassed when they talk about how they’re “still” on Facebook. But they are on Facebook.
People being embarrassed or ashamed while still using the technology does not bother the authoritarian owners of those platforms in the least, as long as they’re profiting off of those ashamed users.
That pattern repeated with the gig economy. Though the #DeleteUber movement early in the first Trump administration was briefly very effective at scaring Uber’s leadership, they quickly adapted to the criticisms people had, and most people have forgotten they were ever supposed to be angry in the first place. They knew they could weather the brief shame or stigma that was attached to using the app.
In short, the venture capitalists and CEOs of Silicon Valley have priced the costs of shame into their business plans. It may make creative communities feel good to shame people about using AI (and maybe that has some purposes for social cohesion amongst those groups), but it rarely stops people from using the platforms at all — it just makes them quieter about it.
Whenever I say this on social media, a bunch of really angry folks come into my mentions and say “you love AI and slop and why don’t you go give Sam Altman a hug” even though my bona fides of criticizing these tech tycoons go back to when the angry people were still in diapers. But I don’t fault people for having spare reservoirs of rage aimed at the harms that the authoritarian billionaires have done to their world; I just want them to aim their rage more effectively.
Are we being effective?
We have to care more about being effective than we care about being “right”. We have to care more about power and actually winning than we care about merely dunking on people. (And I mean, dunking on people is fun! It just can’t be the only thing. And it doesn’t win any converts.) I wish we would learn one goddamn lesson from our failures to stop the last several waves of tech adoption, where we’ve just kept repeating the same failing patterns, preaching to the choir with our platitudes while regular people all get fed into the insatiable user acquisition maw of big tech, social stigma be damned.
I’m lucky enough to be the kind of NYC policy nerd who saw Zohran Mamdani’s first campaign video when it came out, right after Donald Trump won a second term. It’s worth a re-watch, but in short, what he does is go to the Bronx and engage with folks in one of the areas of the city that swung hardest toward Trump during the election. And he just starts asking people what they care about, why they voted that way. One of the most remarkable things about the video is, Mamdani doesn’t argue with anybody, he just listens, and then he asks them if their life would be better if their rent were frozen, if buses were free, if childcare were affordable. Perhaps most relevant to this point, he doesn’t shame them, even though they had very obviously made a devastatingly self-defeating choice. He gave them an affirmative alternative to move toward, and in doing so, empowered both those people and himself to do something better.
This is the kind of solution that most AI critics are not allowing for right now when they only picture a shame-based corrective to individual people’s use of AI. It is possible to build human-centric, empowering tools and platforms that are owned by the people instead of by billionaire tycoons, that are responsible about the environment and with people’s data and privacy, that are accountable to the communities that they serve. If we engaged every person who made some AI slop and said, “would you rather have tools that help you make something amazing, and brought you into a community of creators?” I don’t think anybody would say no.
And truthfully, I think two big reasons why critics don’t use that framing instead are due to laziness and arrogance. It takes a lot more time and effort to engage with people over time and to bring them into community. It’s a lot easier to dunk on them, and then return to one’s existing community of peers who will praise you for saying how ugly that person’s slop was. But that won’t stop the Big AI companies.
We need a new theory of change if we care more about stopping the harms of Big AI than we care about feeling righteous. The good news is that it already exists, in pieces: there are tactics for winning the platform war, there are direct actions that ordinary people have already used successfully, and there are alternatives being built right now that are worth pointing people toward. What’s missing isn’t the alternative. It’s our willingness to offer it to people instead of just yelling at them.
My thanks to WorkOS for sponsoring the Daring Fireball weekly newsletter this week to promote their Agent Registration. Agents are hitting your signup flow and they’re bouncing off a browser login that was designed for humans. Every one that gives up is a signup you never see.
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Decentralized social network Bluesky was one of the bigger
beneficiaries of the exodus from Elon Musk’s X in November
2024, following the U.S. elections. But now, nearly two years
later, the social network and would-be X competitor is struggling
to hold on to its momentum.
According to data from digital intelligence provider
Similarweb, Bluesky’s mobile app had 10.4 million monthly
active users worldwide in June 2026, down 27.2% year-over-year. In
addition, mobile daily active users continued to decline, falling
25.6% year-over-year in July to around 3 million.
But I think it’s obviously true that Threads and Twitter/X both have hundreds of millions of active users, and Bluesky has like maybe 10 million. Even if Bluesky has three times more actual users than Similarweb’s data suggests, that would still suggest that Bluesky’s user base is an entire order of magnitude smaller than Threads or Twitter/X. And Mastodon is so small that no one even mentions it anymore in these comparisons. Mastodon and the whole ActivityPub world make Bluesky look large and culturally relevant.
Small is not necessarily bad. My favorite of these networks, personally, is Mastodon. I like my community there because it’s small and generally free of both drama and nonsense. But small precludes mainstream cultural relevance.
Multiple people I know have told me that they love the idea of
Bluesky, and want it to succeed, but have abandoned it for X
because they use agentic tools in their work and find them
incredibly useful, and feel that any mention of their usage here
leads to hate and ridicule.
I wouldn’t bring this up if it was just one person, but it was
multiple people since the beginning of August who mentioned in
passing something to the effect of either “I’d spend more time on
Bluesky if people weren’t so anti-AI” or “As much as I hate to
be there all the useful AI talk is on X.” [...]
I’m not telling anyone what to do or what tech to use or what to
like or not like. I’m just relaying that the reputation this place
now has is one that a large segment of the population who are NOT
fascists, saying they don’t feel comfortable here because a main
area of their interest is considered worthy of being mocked and
attacked. And even as I’ve explained that I’ve been able to have
positive conversations about productive AI usage here with many of
you, the reputation of the community here as insisting their own
lived experience can’t possibly be real has driven them away.
It’s not just “the reputation”. That really is the culture of Bluesky. I’ve obviously written more about AI this month than usual — in particular, my two long pieces regarding watermarking LLM-generated text through word-choice diddling. I don’t really write much about AI generally.
Broadly, I’m making two arguments against text watermarking. First, that the embedding of a detectable signal (even if subtle) must necessarily degrade the quality of the generated prose (even if only slightly), and that this is an unacceptable trade-off for a feature that has no benefit to the user and in fact can only be used against the user. Second, that even if I’m wrong about the first part, and a clever enough watermarking scheme can embed a detectable signature without any degradation of prose quality, this is a bad idea and should be rejected.
Reaction to my takes on text watermarking have largely been about these two arguments. Some people agree with me that what watermarking proponents are claiming is not possible — the text quality must degrade. Others agree that while it must have an effect on text quality, it in fact is so subtle that it truly does not matter and even a careful reader will not notice an overall degradation. Others disagree, tell me I don’t understand the cleverness of the systems, and are convinced that somehow this watermarking truly embeds a detectable signal in prose without any degradation of text quality whatsoever. There’s a range of disagreement, but it’s all reasonable. Likewise on the broader question of whether it’s a good idea or not to even try to do this.
The reaction on Bluesky to my recent work is like nothing else. It’s largely in the vein that watermarking can’t possibly make AI-generated text worse because it’s already random gibberish, and that the only explanation for my being opposed to this is that I must be using AI to produce my own writing and I’m upset that my scheme will soon be detectable. Read the replies to this one; they speak for themselves.
I continue to think my friend Daniel Jalkut has espoused the one true take: “My take on AI is, essentially, everybody who’s against it is too against it and everybody who’s for it is too for it.” It is way less inflammatory to espouse an AI-skeptical stance on Twitter/X than it is to simply state that AI can be truly useful on Bluesky.
The people bitching about me turning off replies on my thread earlier today are doing an excellent job reinforcing why I was right to turn off replies.
Bluesky and Threads both pull the same trick: When you take a screenshot on iOS of an individual tweet, they replace the “Follow” button in their user interface with their logo. Tim Marinin noticed this in the Bluesky app, got curious, and because they publish the app’s source code, he dug in to figure out how they do this:
The answer was in the file literally called GrowthHack.tsx,
introduced in January 2026 by mozzius. But it merely
used a dependency, so to understand I looked into package
expo-privacy-sensitive, also by them.
The package creates UITextField with isSecureTextEntry
property set to true and renders the actual content (the button)
into that field’s .layer. When I take the screenshot, iOS hides
this UITextField by blanking the layer, allowing the Bluesky logo
to flutter its wings through (it was here the whooole time). For
other platforms it simply renders content as-is, without masking.
Marinin says, “I think it’s cute.”
I think it’s bullshit. If I take a screenshot I want to see exactly what is on my screen. If I take a photograph with a Sony camera, they don’t put a fucking Sony logo in the image. Screenshots should be purely WYSIWYG, and it’s obvious that the isSecureTextEntry property is meant to obscure the contents of secure text entry fields. It’s clever, but it’s bullshit.
It’s a bit like the bullshit some apps pull where they append extra text on the clipboard when you copy and paste — like Apple Books, which adds quotation marks around the text you copied (a little annoying) and appends five lines of attribution cruft (a lot annoying). But at least with Books’s attribution cruft, you can just delete the extra lines (and the additional quotation marks). With this stunt Bluesky and Threads are pulling, there’s no way to capture a screenshot of what you actually see in the app.
I’m not surprised Threads does something sneaky like this; I am surprised that Bluesky does.
My latest paper (with Cason and Zubrickas) has just been published by the Journal of Urban Economics. We show that refund bonuses can indeed improve the holdout problem.
Abstract: The holdout problem presents a pervasive challenge in situations that require the assembly of independently controlled assets, where due to complementarity the combined whole is worth more than the sum of its parts. One avenue for addressing holdout problems involves contingent contracts, where agreements are conditional upon reaching a predetermined threshold. This paper reports an experiment to investigate a new refund bonus contingent mechanism, in which asset owners who agree to participate (e.g., sell their asset) receive a bonus payment if the required threshold for project success is not met. The refund bonus eliminates failure equilibria and improves the frequency of successfully reaching the threshold in the symmetric mixed strategy equilibrium. In the experiment, individual asset holders choose each round whether to accept an offer to sell. Multiple owners must accept for the (contingent) sale to materialize, and holdout owners who do not sell can earn more, so the game has the strategic incentives of a volunteer’s dilemma. The data show that the bonus mechanism increases agreements to sell, the frequency of successful projects, and efficiency. By the second half of the experimental sessions, the total number of sales is 35 percent higher and the threshold is met nearly twice as often with the bonus than without.
Here's the call for papers for the NBER workshop on market design, at Stanford in October.
"To: NBER Market Design Working Group
From: Michael Ostrovsky and
Eric Budish
The National Bureau of Economic Research workshop on
Market Design is a forum to discuss new academic research related to the design
of market institutions, broadly defined. The next meeting will be held in
Stanford, California on October 16 & 17, 2026.We are planning for an in-person only
meeting. There will not be an option to attend virtually.
We welcome new and interesting research and are happy to
see papers from a variety of fields.Participants in the past meeting covered a range of topics and
methodological approaches. Last year's program can be viewed at:
The conference does not publish proceedings or issue NBER
working papers - most of the presented papers are presumed to be published
later in journals.
We would appreciate it if you could pass this call for
papers on to colleagues who might be interested, but who may not be on the
Bureau's mailing list. Submissions are welcome from researchers with and
without NBER affiliations and from researchers at all career stages.
If you are interested in presenting a paper this year,
please upload a PDF version by midnight EDT on August 23, 2026, to this link:
Preference will be given to papers for which at least a
preliminary draft is ready by the time of submission. Only authors of accepted
papers will be contacted.
Unfortunately, the NBER cannot cover the travel costs or
hotel expenses of participants.
There are a limited number of spaces available for
graduate students to attend the conference, though we cannot cover their costs.
Please email ostrovsky@stanford.edu
and eric.budish@chicagobooth.edua short nominating paragraph.
Please forward this announcement to any potentially
interested scholars. We look forward to hearing from you."
On Saturday, August 15, the New York Times editorial board published an op-ed noting that the Republicans are trying to hide the cuts they have made to health care in the U.S.
The editorial board called the expansion of affordable health care to millions of Americans one of the great achievements of the federal government in this century. Before the Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010 without a single Republican vote, about 18% of Americans under 65 had no health insurance. With the passage and later expansion of the ACA, also known as Obamacare, the number of uninsured had fallen below 10%.
But now, the journalists note, Trump and the Republicans are working to uproot that achievement. While they extended Trump’s 2017 tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations in their July 2025 budget reconciliation bill—the one they call the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” passed without a single Democratic vote—they refused to extend subsidies that enabled people to afford healthcare insurance in the ACA marketplaces.
The Democrats shut down the government last fall to try to force Republicans to restore those cuts, foreseeing that higher prices for premiums would drive healthier people out of the markets and out of healthcare insurance, while the loss of those healthier people from risk pools would drive up premiums for those remaining.
They were unsuccessful, and as they warned, without the subsidies, people dropped their health insurance. A report from the Department of Health and Human Services in late June 2026 showed that at least 5 million people lost health insurance in the first six months of the year, a drop of about 13%. For those remaining, premiums have spiked: the editorial board notes that a middle-income, middle-aged couple with two children could pay an additional $3,500 a year, more than doubling their premium from before the cuts. Deductibles also jumped this year by about $1,000 a person as people chose cheaper policies that offered less coverage.
Democrats shut down the government also because they wanted to restore the cuts of about $1 trillion over the next ten years Republicans had made in funding for Medicaid. In their budget reconciliation bill, Republicans placed what they called a “work requirement” on enrollees, requiring them to prove they have a job or a valid exemption.
But, as the editorial board notes, the “work requirement” is really a “paperwork requirement” that will throw people eligible for the program off it because they have not filed the right paperwork. As the board reports, Elizabeth Zhang and Gideon Lukens of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimated that about two of the three people who will lose Medicaid because of the new requirement are legally entitled to it.
They estimated that up to 15 million people are at risk of losing Medicaid coverage. That, in turn, will force hospitals, especially rural hospitals, to cut back services or close. Although still legally required to provide services to everyone, they will not be reimbursed for the cost of such care and will drop labor and delivery services, for example. Those closures will not just mean poorer health care, they will mean lost jobs.
As the New York Times editorial board noted, Republicans deliberately put off the implementation of most of the Medicaid cuts until after the 2026 midterms.
New York Times reader KAM from Marin County, California, noted in a comment on the story that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defines onerous paperwork differently than Republicans in Congress. Bessent recently announced the Treasury will no longer require shell companies to disclose even the name, address, and identification of people who own an interest of more than 25% or who exercise “significant control” over the company, as Congress required in the 2021 Corporate Transparency Act. Congress designed the law to combat money laundering, but Bessent says the paperwork puts an undue burden on businesses.
In 1883, sociologist William Graham Sumner published What Social Classes Owe to Each Other, concluding that the answer was: nothing. In a time when unregulated industrialization was making fortunes on the one hand and driving down wages on the other, creating extremes of rich and poor, Sumner turned on its head the traditional idea that the economy of the United States would provide a living to any man who worked hard. Instead, Sumner argued that anyone who did not succeed in the United States must be “negligent, shiftless, inefficient, silly, and imprudent.”
Not only was it unfair to make “the industrious and the prudent” responsible for such shiftless men, he wrote, it would ruin the country by destroying individual enterprise. Sumner called for a “laissez-faire” world in which those who failed should be permitted to sink into poverty and die to keep the U.S. from becoming a place where lazy people wanted a handout. In the end, such people needed to be purged from society for the good of the nation.
At the time, those succeeding in the industrializing economy nodded along with Sumner. The Republican New York Times editor wrote that even though Sumner’s “views are singularly hard and uncompromising, it is difficult to quarrel with their deductions, however one may feel one’s finer instinct hurt by their apparent cruelty.”
The Trump administration seems to have embraced Sumner’s belief that the nation depends upon the survival of the fittest.
As microbiologist and senior health reporter Beth Mole reported last year in Ars Technica, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears to believe that the key to health is not to rely on the vaccines proven to prevent infectious diseases, but rather to have a strong immune system fortified, as he wrote in a 2021 book, “through healthy living, clean water, and good nutrition.” He accused those who support vaccines of misleading the American public for the benefit of the pharmaceutical industry and the healthcare industry.
This seems to explain why he has claimed—without evidence—that the Texas children who died of measles were malnourished and that “[w]e don’t know what was killing” the 83 Samoans who died in the country’s 2019 measles epidemic, during which Kennedy associated with members of the anti-vaccine movement there. It would also explain why he promised to turn away from promoting vaccination to exploring new treatments for measles, including vitamins.
And it would help to explain the effort to change the vaccine schedule for children by separating the MMR vaccine into single-disease vaccines. Rather than two shots, requiring two doctor’s visits, the vaccine series would require six. Experts say such a change will mean poorer children will not get the whole vaccine series, putting them and their communities at risk.
If overall health can fight off germs and illness, then measures like the pasteurization of milk and the tracking of foodborne illnesses are unnecessary.
The U.S. is experiencing a particularly bad wave of foodborne illness. It’s driven both by hot weather that nurtures food contamination and by federal funding cuts that scaled back the ability of federal agencies to conduct food inspections and provide grants to state and local health departments that used to be able to trace outbreaks quickly.
Deidre McPhillips of CNN reported that so far this year, the U.S. has reported about 10,500 cases of foodborne illness. Between 2021 and 2025, the annual average was about 1,500 cases. At least 9,481 people in 17 states have fallen ill with cyclosporiasis carried by lettuce from Taylor Farms, and thousands more cases are being investigated. It’s the largest cyclospora outbreak in U.S. history, spurred by cuts of more than 40% to food safety detection systems.
It’s not just lettuce. Frozen organic blueberries sold in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia have been recalled for E. coli; fresh jalapeños from Taylor Farms have been recalled for salmonella; 1.5 million dozen eggs sold in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and New Mexico have also been recalled for salmonella. Anna Skinner of Newsweek notes that while the focus has been on produce, in fact, FDA records show what she calls “a steady stream of recalls” that includes “prepared foods, salad dressings, soups, bakery items and ready-to-eat products,” potentially contaminated with salmonella, Listeria, or foreign materials, including pieces of metal.
As former U.S. surgeon general Dr. Jerome Adams wrote in USA Today, “You cannot effectively focus on chronic diseases while you’re being repeatedly overwhelmed by acute infectious outbreaks.” He called for restoring the mandatory tracking of all eight pathogens that were covered by the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) before the administration cut the surveillance down to just two, and for filling the leadership positions at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration that are currently vacant. He called for inspectors to prioritize high-risk foods and imports and for the Department of Health and Human Services to reaffirm that vaccines are safe and effective.
In the 1890s, the determination of those like William Graham Sumner to keep government out of society in order to promote individualism had undermined public health and safety. Producers adulterated tuberculosis-carrying milk with chalk and formaldehyde, decorated candy with lead paint, and scooped melted ice cream off the bottom of the vat to refreeze for sale the next day, and what was in sausage meat was a terrifying mystery.
In the early twentieth century, middle-class Americans demanded regulation of the food and drug industry, ushering in the reforms that we now call the Progressive Era.
Two hours, thirty-four minutes, Rick and I recorded this session not too long ago in Tuscany. It was everything Rick wanted to ask. Self-recommending of course, and there is more to come.
Early signs of tech-driven improvements in productivity growth could herald a sustained strengthening in the UK’s economic outlook, analysts have said, in a turnaround after years of underperformance. Private sector productivity grew by 1.8 per cent in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, up from 1.2 per cent previously, according to analysis of official data by investment bank Morgan Stanley.
The rise extended gains since 2024 and reduced the growth gap with the US. The reasons behind the upsurge are heavily contested, but some analysts point to increasing AI adoption in sectors including information technology and business services.
If the recent productivity acceleration can be sustained over years, it could bolster incomes and help alleviate some of the strains on Britain’s public finances.
Trump is giving economists something to write papers about:
U.S. tariff rates in 2025 rose to levels not seen since the Great Depression, yet imports increased. To account for the missing trade collapse, we develop an open-economy New Keynesian model with tariff heterogeneity, inventories, and shocks to investment that capture the AI-driven boom. The model matches the untargeted paths of imports, output, and inflation; we use it to decompose the effects of tariffs and the investment boom. Absent the investment boom, imports would have fallen by 10 percent and activity would have contracted by 0.7 percent. The effects of tariffs depend on which goods are tariffed: tariffs on consumption and intermediates act like shocks to supply; tariffs on capital goods act like shocks to demand. The concentration of the 2025 tariff increases on consumption goods and the relative sparing of capital goods limited the damage to output while amplifying the inflationary impulse.
Output from NASA’s GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) global model shows daily maximum surface air temperature across Western Europe from May 1 to August 19, 2026. The darkest red areas indicate temperatures that met or exceeded 40°C (104°F).
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin
Western Europe got its first hint of an unusual summer in May 2026, when a heat dome produced exceptional temperatures that shattered records in several countries. Remarkable as it was, that early heat wave turned out to be only the opening salvo.
By mid-August, Europeans were sweating through their fifth heat wave of the season, with the latest onslaught pushing temperatures well above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) across a broad area. During these bouts of extreme weather, high temperatures were often unrelenting, persisting for several days and sometimes weeks on end, and remaining overnight.
For a region accustomed to relatively mild summers, the heat upended everyday life. Hospitalizations and heat-related deaths spiked. Highways and train tracks buckled, forcing road closures and service disruptions. Large and destructive wildfires raged in areas where they were once rarely seen. The heat also worsened the severe drought that has gripped the region for months, contributing to record-low river water levels and disrupting water and power supplies, transportation routes, and agriculture.
The animation above shows the daily maximum surface air temperature across Western Europe from May 1 to August 19, 2026. It was produced by combining satellite observations with temperatures predicted by a version of NASA’s GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) global model, which uses mathematical equations to represent physical processes in the atmosphere. The darkest red areas indicate where temperatures met or exceeded 40°C.
The heat broke records at a furious pace, often by wide margins. According to the UK Met Office, temperatures soared as high as 35.1°C (95.2°F) in London on May 26, smashing the previous May record by 2.3°C (4.1°F). In June, Bordeaux, France, broke its maximum-temperature record on three consecutive days, hitting 42.5°C on June 24, Météo-France reported. Slovakia, meanwhile, set new national records for both daytime and nighttime highs in August. Combined June and July temperatures in Western Europe were the highest on record, according to Europe’s Copernicus climate monitoring service.
In Europe, extreme temperatures collided with several vulnerabilities, including limited access to air conditioning, high nighttime temperatures, and a lack of green space in some cities. The circumstances triggered not just discomfort but heat exhaustion and heatstroke in some cases. Preliminary reports suggest that heat may have been associated with 10,000 excess deaths, including thousands of people in the UK, France, Germany, and Belgium.
“Air conditioning is an especially critical issue in Europe in the short term,” said Anamika Shreevastava, a researcher at New York University who studied urban heat islands as a postdoc at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. One of her goals was to produce thermal maps based on NASA data from missions like ECOSTRESS that city planners could use to make cities more resilient to heat waves.
International Energy Agency data show that 23 percent of homes in Europe have air conditioning, compared to 90 percent of homes in the United States. That difference contributes to the much higher death rates that researchers have documented in European cities during heat waves than in comparable American cities. “Longer term, cities can also plant trees, expand parks, use reflective roof paint, and transition to building materials less likely to retain heat,” Shreevastava said.
An analysis from the World Health Organization indicates that heat stress is the world’s leading cause of weather-related deaths, noting it exacerbates underlying illnesses, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental health conditions, and asthma. Researchers have calculated that roughly 489,000 heat-related deaths occur each year, with 45 percent of the deaths in Asia and 36 percent in Europe.
“For older adults with physical health problems, temperatures as low as 26.7°C (80°F) can pose significant danger,” said Deborah Carr, a Boston University sociologist who specializes in the study of aging. “Nighttime heat is especially harmful for older adults whose homes lack air conditioning.”
Carr is part of a research team that used demographic data, along with temperature and climate data archived by NASA, to identify which parts of the world are at the greatest risk of current and future heat exposure. Southern Europe was among the areas facing growing heat exposure and an aging population, the researchers found.
Other research, published in Lancet Planetary Health in August 2026, underscores the importance of demographics in assessing the risks posed by heat. This study, led by Stanford researcher Qinqin Kong, mapped where increasing heat is likely to lead to intolerable conditions in the coming decades for young, middle-aged, and older adults, concluding that safe thresholds will be breached often and widely, with risks falling disproportionately on older people.
“The human body can tolerate only a limited range of ambient heat,” said Kong, a recipient of a NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology award. “Understanding where, when, and to what extent these limits are exceeded is critical.”
With intolerable levels of heat expected to affect more people across larger regions and for longer periods than previously thought, Kong and his colleagues hope that their findings will inform targeted heat action plans, emergency preparedness, and health system planning.
Bankrupt: The cost of the I-5 Rose Quarter freeway widening has exploded to $3.5 billion, making the second highest cost highway project (per mile) in the nation. The Oregon Department of Transportation’s systematic mismanagement and deception have turned this into a fiscal black hole. ODOT is more than $2 billion short of the amount needed to actually build the full project, and yet is marching forward with construction, playing “extend and pretend” with a financial plan that threatens to absorb all of the region’s transportation financial capital for the next decade or more.
Highest cost project in the US: At $3.5 billion for a 1.5-mile stretch, the Rose Quarter project now costs roughly $2.3 billion per mile—making it the second most expensive highway project in the United States, behind only the nearby $15 billion Interstate Bridge Replacement ($3 billion/mile).
Seven-fold cost increase: Since the Oregon Legislature approved an initial $450 million allocation in 2017, ODOT’s cost estimates have ballooned seven-fold to $3.5 billion, resulting in a current $2 billion funding gap.
Deceptive accounting. ODOT low-balled initial cost estimates to sell the project, never got legislative approval for cost increases, relied on over-optimistic revenue assumptions, commenced construction with a huge funding gap, and rather than facing reality, has been playing “extend and pretend” as costs exploded and revenue evaporated.
The “driving stakes” strategy: By breaking ground on a tiny fragment (“Phase 1A”)–with more than $1.5 billion unfunded–ODOT used classic Robert Moses tactics to force political officials into providing further funding.
ODOT is effectively insolvent: ODOT’s long-running reign of error is bankrupting the agency. Due almost entirely to persistent and growing megaproject cost overruns costing billions, ODOT is now functionally insolvent, even as it confronts a $200 million operating deficit
Overspending to create land: Promised caps meant to heal the Albina neighborhood work out to an absurd $400 million to $800 million per acre of buildable land—roughly 100 to 200 times the market price for adjacent properties.
Must Read
As we’ve long noted at City Observatory, studies that purport to measure the “costs of congestion” are essentially thinly veiled propaganda, with no basis in science. Once again, Todd Litman of the Victoria Transportation Reserach Institute takes out the analytical and methodological trash, and debunks exaggerated congestion cost claims. Focusing on widely cited congestion reports—such as the INRIX Global Traffic Scorecard and TTI Urban Mobility Report—Litman shows they systematically inflate traffic delay estimates chiefly as ammunication to justify multi-billion-dollar highway expansion. Among the flaws in these studies:
Unrealistic baseline speeds: Studies measure delay against free-flow or above-speed-limit traffic, treating normal, safe urban driving speeds as “congestion,” while characterizing the inability of drivers to exceed the legal speed limit as a “cost.”
Overstated value of travel time estimates: Reports assign high monetary values to minor, predictable delays while ignoring the far higher economic costs of vehicle ownership and sprawl.
Exaggerated traffic growth claims: Measured peak hour delay growth often stems from altered metrics and lower off-peak speeds rather than real-world traffic gridlock.
Biased policy incentives: None of these so-called studies are peer-reviewed, and are generally the product of organizations looking to generate or amplify public concern about traffic as a way of selling their products (traffic monitoring) or advancing their point of view (more freeway construction). These same incentives lead authors to ignore more cost effective means of reducing travel costs, including better transit, demand management, and land-use reforms.
Beth Osborne: Wait for a better Congress to address reauthorization. There’s legislation moving through Congress that would re-authorize the IIJA (the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act). Transportation for America’s Beth Osborne points out that this Republican-crafted bill–which shortchanges transit, active transportation, and safety, while providing even more generous funding for highway expansions–is a bad deal. She asks, in light of the political outlook, what’s the rush?
. . . even now, when it’s obvious to anyone watching that a full reauthorization isn’t happening this Congress and this bill will get extended into a Congress that might look very different, a lot of members of what could be the next majority—and some advocacy groups that would theoretically do better under a change in leadership—still seem to think this is simply as good as it gets. I have to wonder, why don’t they want a shot at this bill from the majority?
Transportation bills often have a long shadow, with reauthorization locking in the policy environment for several years. It would be a mistake to allow the current political environment to determine transportation priorities for the next five or more years.
Promptwatch is part of the emerging "GEO" space, for Generative Engine Optimization - the chatbot version of SEO, where companies offer tools and consulting to help your site increase its presence in replies to prompts inside tools like ChatGPT.
The Promptwatch product uses automation to track responses to prompts across end-user chat products like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. They publish aggregate reports on this as part of their own content marketing strategy, which do seem to provide credible hints as to otherwise invisible design changes to those products.
Their own tracking shows a notable change aligned with the GPT-5.6 rollout earlier this month:
The percentage of all ChatGPT Search fanout queries that contain the site:operator, per day. The share hovered between 0.3% and 0.5% for weeks, dipped briefly to 0.15% on August 3 to 5 (consistent with a staged rollout or pre-launch experiment), then jumped to 16-17% on August 8.
It's important to note that these figures only reflect the prompts for which they have automated tracking enabled.
For Plus and Pro users, we’re updating GPT‑5.6 Sol in Chat to be more reliable with facts and provide more focused answers.
Once again I am hampered by OpenAI's decision to actively obscure their system prompts, but from poking at ChatGPT I believe their latest search tool has a shape like search(query, recency, domains) rather than encouraging a site: operator directly.
In a follow-up on August 18th Promptwatch reported that ChatGPT appeared to have greatly reduced the likelihood of Reddit being used in those searches. My own attempts to ascertain if the system prompt has been updated to discourage Reddit sourcing have been unsuccessful - the most thorough leaked system prompt collection I know of doesn't yet show any relevant changes.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lala, located north of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, and on Tropical Storm Moke, located about 400 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic: A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles west of the coast of Portugal. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics tonight or on Sunday while it moves east- southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development should end by Sunday night when the system encounters unfavorable environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic: Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association with the shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it drifts westward on Sunday and then accelerates northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. An area of low pressure could form in association with the wave soon after it moves off the coast. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
&& High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lala, located north of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, and on Tropical Storm Moke, located about 400 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
Southwest of Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms are quickly becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form on Sunday as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Central East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are persisting with a broad area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form before it interacts with, or merges with the disturbance to its east (EP92) late this weekend or early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Well Southwest of Southwestern Mexico: Another area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle portion of next week. Some slow development is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.