Collections: Pre-Modern Armies for Worldbuilders, Part IVa: Leadership

This is the fourth part (I, IIa, IIb, III) of our honestly-who-knows-how-many part series laying out some general guidelines for how pre-modern armies are organized. We’ve talked about how armies are recruited, equipped and paid for. In particular, as we’ve seen so far, the structure of recruitment, organization and payment (such as it was) is heavily dependent on the underlying civilian structures, often mirroring them quite closely. Armies cannot help but recreate their civilian social structures on the battlefield.

The same is absolutely true for leadership and cohesion, essential for getting an army to fight effectively. Now we need to clear up some definitions here at the start between the three ideas we’re going to focus on here: we’re breaking up a multifaceted idea (‘combat motivation’) into component parts because, as we’ll see, effective combat motivation is something of a ‘three-legged stool’ that needs all three legs to stand effectively. Those three legs are leadership, morale and cohesion; the first of which will be our focus this week and the last of which will be our focus next week.

Leadership refers to the to the command structures of an army, which as we’ll see certainly do have a motivation component. This is a top-down sort of combat motivation: good leaders might cultivate the respect or admiration of their troops, might find ways to motivate them in difficult times, might lead by example or otherwise ‘perform’ generalship and so on. What we’re going to focus on here is where leaders come from because, as it turns out, most societies have pretty strong ideas about where military leaders are supposed to come from, what backgrounds they’re supposed to have and (no surprise) they tend to mirror civilian leadership structures.

Meanwhile morale refers to the bottom-up motivation of the combatants. Specifically, I tend to use this to mean their attachment to the cause, both their loyalty to it and also their belief that it can be achieved. We aren’t going to deal too much with morale here because it is often very conflict-specific: different causes come with different morale implications. However, I do want to stress an important idea here: morale is what gets soldiers to a battlefield, not what keeps them on it (generally).

Finally cohesion is a side-together sort of motivation: the ability of a unit to cohere under pressure, to ‘hold together’ rather than breaking up when things get difficult. In the terror of combat, the high sounding reasons for service (the foundations of morale) are hard to keep in mind and combatants need something a bit more primal to keep them in the ranks: that is cohesion and it is generally based in some kind of strong attachment to the other fellows in the ranks next to them. As we’ll see, just like leadership systems tend to mirror civilian leadership structures, the options for fostering strong cohesion among soldiers are heavily dependent on what a civilian society looks like. We’ll treat cohesion principles next week.

By way of clarifying contrast: a force with low morale might melt away from desertion even when there’s not fighting going on, because no one is invested in the cause. A force with low cohesion (but high morale) might panic and disperse in a battle but reform later to fight again: they remain committed to the cause, but unable to handle the terror of battle collectively. A force with bad morale but high cohesion is very dangerous to a general, because that is the raw material for mutinies: the men will hold together against you as quickly as for you.

Naturally, most military systems that have existed for more than a single campaign have some effective system for arranging leadership and ensuring cohesion on a repeat basis. And that is what we’ll be looking at this week: how the structures of societies shape and constrain leadership and cohesion of the armies they form.

But first, as always, recruiting and maintaining large pre-modern armies is expensive! Much like many of those pre-modern armies, this project is supported by devolving the costs of my ruinous book-buying habit on to recruits readers. You can help by spreading the word to new readers and by supporting this project over at Patreon. If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).

Where Leaders Come From

Polities have a bewildering array of ways that they chose military leaders – some are determined by hereditary positions, others by professional career tracks, other elected and so on – but the general rule to understanding all of them is this: the same sort of people who exercise positions of authority to organize civil society also lead the armies and navies of that society. The biggest distinction between leadership system is often just the question of if the civil leader are the exact same people as the military leadership, or different fellows drawn from the same class. Those who lead in peace, almost always lead in war.

So from the worldbuilding perspective, before you can think about your ‘officer class,’ you need to think about the ruling class of your society. This isn’t quite the place to get into every possible permutation of ruling class a pre-modern society can have, but we can make do with a few examples to give a sense of how these notions connect. One thing I will note: in pre-modern societies, professional leadership classes are extremely rare – even as they are very common in modern societies. So while your instinct may be that ‘to be a general, someone just goes to ‘general school’ and then works up the career ladder’ that is almost never the career path for pre-modern military leadership. To the degree these societies have professional classes, they are usually politically marginal and politically marginal groups do not get to lead a society’s army.

Instead, as a rule, the aristocrats who organize large institutions and groups in peacetime assume, as a matter of course, that they have the necessary skills to organize the same large groups in war time. Coming from a modern viewpoint, with our emphasis on ‘scientific’ leadership approaches and specialist knowledge, the idea that experience at large-scale farming or Confucian philosophy fully qualified one to lead armies seems strange, but those historical aristocrats are generally untroubled by the idea that their training might not prepare them to lead. After all, the skills of the aristocrat – whatever they might be – are the large-scale leadership skills of the society and it usually takes quite a sharp and humiliating experience of defeat to cause any aristocracy to reconsider that (and often not even then).

So let’s look at some connected civilian-and-military leadership structures to get a sense of how they can work, keeping in mind that we’re not being exhaustive.

The most common system by far is some form of military-aristocracy: a hereditary or nearly hereditary class that wields military leadership as its prerogative. In complex, agrarian societies, these are almost always leisured large-landholders who live off of the rents of their lands. There is thus often an inherent tension in how a leisured class justifies its role of power and privilege in society by pointing to its military leadership role. One of the classic summations of this was the medieval European division of society into “those who work (the commons), those who pray (the clergy), and those who fight (the nobility)” – it is the role as ‘those who fight’ (or who lead the fight) which justifies aristocratic privilege and wealth.

Crucially, I want to stress: the aristocrat earns their position of command by wealth and birth, they do not earn wealth and birth by martial excellence. These aristocracies are ‘rich mens’ clubs’ not ‘good fighters’ clubs,’ and they are buttressed with ideologies that assume people born from the lower classes make poor soldiers and generals by their very nature. Pre-modern societies are, by modern standards, extremely low in social mobility and so they create cultures and customs which justify and normalize those systems.

But – as I’ve been alluded to this whole series – not all military aristocracies are the same. In particular, there is a marked difference between warrior-aristocracies and what I am going to call (very roughly) officer-aristocracies – the core difference is the precise martial skill that justifies aristocratic power, but that has all sorts of ramifications with how these fellows behave.

In a warrior-aristocracy, a core part of being an aristocrat is mastery of a specific style of personal combat, most frequently cavalry combat (or chariot combat, before the advent of true cavalry). Part of this is simply the expense of it – you have to be rich to have access to horses from a young age to learn to ride well – but there is also a heavy skill component, in that it is very hard to learn to be a truly excellent horseman if you do not start early. The thing to keep in mind is that because warrior-aristocrats’ social position is contingent on performing a specific kind of warfare, they are going to want to be visible performing that sort of warfare. As a result, these fellows are often socially constrained to lead from the front and to fight personally even when it might be wiser not to.

Via Wikipedia, a detail of the Alexander Mosaic from the House of the Faun in Pompeii, an early first century BC copy of a likely third century BC original. Alexander’s Macedonian nobility are a good example of a state-society that nevertheless maintains a warrior-aristocracy: the clear expectation was that Macedonian noblemen in command fought in person. Alexander, of course, was famously wounded many times, but his father too lost an eye and gained a limp in battle from a broken tibia. Several of Alexander’s companions, like Antigonus I Monophthalmus (‘the one-eyed’) sported battle wounds as well.

Warrior-aristocracies cover, as best I can tell, the great majority of complex, agrarian non-state societies and it isn’t hard to see how all of the systems fit together: the warrior-aristocrats, their retinues of lesser warrior-aristocrats and common-soldier retainers, the fragmentation of violence in the society and the leadership role of those warrior aristocrats. Naturally, the most senior (by wealth, generally, because this is about power within a society) warrior-aristocrats will lead the army in battle, with more junior warrior-aristocrats leading common soldiers in a retinue-of-retinues army structure: the biggest Big Man leads the army, with the retinues of his subordinate Big Men beneath him and so on, down to the common soldiers at the bottom of each of these retinues.

Via Wikipedia, another part of the Bayeux Tapestry (depicting the Battle of Hastings, 1066), here showing the climax of the battle, including the death of king Harold II. It is worth noting here how the members of both the mounted Norman warrior-aristocracy and the dismounted Anglo-Saxon military aristocracy are shown in full-size in the center, while lesser soldiers (the Norman archers) are shown in miniature on the lower register. Also note how both William of Normandy and Harold of England had to be personally present at this battle because that was the kind of military leadership their society expected.

As a society gets more complex and a state emerges, the state often comes with new kinds of non-military, non-aristocratic civilian leadership roles (note that religious leadership roles invariably pre-date the state – but priests and the state is a topic (voted on by the Senate) for another day). That opens up new forms of military-aristocracy but also new forms of civil leadership – the interactions between them are complex.

On the one hand, the form of military leadership might change, from warrior-aristocrats to what I am calling officer-aristocrats. In this second form, military leadership remains largely hereditary, limited to large landholders, but they understand their military role not as personally fighting in a given way, but as leading or organizing. The Roman aristocracy functions this way: Roman generals are invariably aristocratic senators, but their model of leadership is not based on the demonstration of personal combat ability or even necessarily personal physical bravery. They are thus free, as a matter of social expectation, to ‘command from the rear’ – a Roman general can get ‘stuck in,’ but they do not have to and it is rarely the wise thing to do so they don’t do it often. Instead of performing personal fighting, these fellows are often expected to be performing organizational and logistical leadership. I cannot see any specific reason why this form of leadership couldn’t emerge in a non-state society, but I struggle to think of an example – even Chinggis Khan and his heirs had to demonstrate their martial bona fides in riding and hunting to maintain legitimacy within their aristocracies, in a way that no Greek strategos, Roman general or Chinese general seems to have had to.

Via Wikipedia, a statue of Trajan from the Roman settlement of Colonia Ulpia Traiana, now Xanten, Germany. It is an example of Trajan performing Roman generalship, visually, but in that context you may notice that he strikingly carries no weapon. While his martial qualities are communicated with his armor, this is now a fellow expecting to fight man-to-man on the field, but rather he appears ready to deliver a rousing speech and then manage the battle from the rear.

The other quirk for increasingly complex aristocracies is the relationship between budding civil administrations and older military aristocracies. Often, even as the civilian administration is taken over by an educated sub-aristocratic class (professionals, burghers, etc.) the command of armies remains in the hands of the old aristocracy. The classic example of this was the distinction in Ancien Régime France between the noblesse d’épée (‘Nobility of the Sword’) – the old nobility, which still exercised most military command – and the noblesse de robe (‘Nobility of the Robe’), a newer nobility that generally held administrative or judicial positions, but not generally military ones. Likewise, the old Prussian aristocracy, die Junker, maintained a clear presence in military posts in the German army through the Second World War.

In other cases, the rising civil administrative class and the military aristocracy remain the same. The Greek polis and the Roman Republic both provide paradigmatic examples, where the assumption clearly was that the same sort of skills that prepared a man to lead in peace also prepared him to lead in war. To greatly simplify, in both Greece and Rome, there was generally a hereditary landed aristocracy of elite families in any given community and often the function of voting systems was to choose which of those hereditary elites would exercise power (by holding this or that office) at a given time.

The other major option for states are to forgo a military aristocracy more or less altogether and professionalize their officers. Because this is how most modern militaries work, I think it is what people reach to first, but I have put it last because it is so incredibly rare. Vocational leadership classes – our military aristocracies where men are born into command – are very common; professional leadership classes, where men are selected and trained for the task, are very rare. This runs counter to most folks’ expectations, but it remains broadly true: the enlisted ranks (the ‘common soldiers,’ though by the time we’re talking about them as ‘enlisted ranks,’ we’re obviously talking about quite well established states) are professionalized long before the leadership class is. The Roman army by the first century AD is fully professional in its ‘enlisted’ ranks (through the centurions), but retains its senatorial military-aristocrat command class. Likewise, European armies in the sixteenth and seventeenth century increasingly consist of professional soldiers, supported by an increasingly professional civil bureaucracy, lead by the same old military-aristocracy as the Late Middle Ages. Professional soldiers often come before – and often simply without – professional officers.

That said, the Chinese state bureaucracy, particularly as it comes to be dominated by the civil service examination system during the Tang Dynasty (618-907) and subsequently does represent a kind of professionalization of military leadership, albeit professionalized not around military skills but rather around skills in writing, literature and philosophy. If that seems shocking, remember that Roman aristocrats got formal training in philosophy and rhetoric, not command, as boys too. We’ll cover in a moment how military leadership skills were communicated. Nevertheless, these scholar-officials show up pretty often in military leadership roles.

Leader Selection

Now briefly, we should also talk about how these leaders are selected. After all, a society has more potential generals than armies, so there must be some way to decide who gets command. In non-state societies, where the potential generals are also military-aristocrats with their own retinues, chieftains and kings often have very limited options on who to put in command: if the king is present, the expectation is that he leads the army (that’s what kings are for), but if he isn’t, then often there’s a strong impulse for the biggest of the magnates to do so. After all, if you snub Duke so-and-so for command despite his bringing the largest retinue, he might just leave and take his retinue with him.

Indeed, for many non-state polities where military power is highly fragmented and fluid, the answer to ‘who leads the army’ is often ‘whoever can.’ In pre-Roman Spain and Gaul, the pattern we see in our sources looks fairly fluid, with charismatic or capable warlords emerging – invariably out of the warrior-aristocracy, these men are not peasants – to knit together large coalitions and thus large armies through personal leadership and charisma.

By contrast, as the state grows stronger, it can exercise more choice on who gets command. For monarchies, that often means royal selection, which may be quite personal (if the aristocracy is small) or, in large bureaucratic states, institutionalized and impersonal. Often the lower ranks have an institutional system of advancement (as we’ll see below), but major commands need to be signed off on at the center of power, simply because generals and admirals represent substantial risks to central authority and must be vetted for loyalty even more than for ability.

Republics are comparatively rare, but they tend to elect their generals and often elect lower officers as well. For states which structure recruitment through contractors, those contractors generally become the officers who lead units, typically led by a general chosen by the king. But those colonels (the contractors) and the general are almost invariably drawn from the same military aristocracy that would have provided them in a vassalage-based system (though in some cases the captains beneath the colonels may come from lower social backgrounds, in which case their career path may be different and may reach its ceiling earlier).

Crucially, the ‘roster’ from which the state – be that a king personally or a bureaucracy generally – can select from tends to remain limited to the tradition, generally hereditary leadership class. After all, a king who tried to fill his posts with commoners would find all of his other key stakeholders – who are military aristocrats – swiftly moving against him. There are occasional exceptions, of course, but they remain occasional because the state, in whatever form it is, needs these magnates in order to function and so it cannot simply sideline them. Of course eventually the modern administrative state emerges which no longer needs these fellows and thus may dispense with them, but that is quite explicitly a modern creature and in any case it merely creates a new leadership class.

There is, after all, a reason that modern armies are led by college-educated officers, often with advanced degrees in the higher ranks, drawn from the same system of elite education that produces our presidents, prime ministers, senators and MPs. Because no army can help but recreate its civilian social structures on the battlefield, so a society where the divide is no longer aristocrat and peasant, but blue-collar and white-collar has blue-collar soldiers and white-collar officers.

How Leaders are Trained

Now generals, admirals and other officers are not, in fact, born ready to command, whatever the social mythology of a ruling class may think. Armies – even smaller units within armies – are complex creatures that require a fair bit of knowledge and skill to control properly. As important, leadership is a skill itself: it is a performance, the exact elements of which will vary from one culture to the next, but it has to be learned. So clearly there must be some way in each of these societies to teach the fellows who will lead.

Here is a spot where I see worldbuilders who aren’t necessarily familiar with historical systems err quite badly, because they import the assumptions of how individuals are prepared and selected for leadership from modern societies. Sometimes the assumption is that command preparation works more or less like an idealized becoming the manager of a small franchise: one starts as the cash register and works upwards. But that absolutely does not work: these societies have low social mobility and a military leadership class which is jealous of its privileges. Service ‘in the ranks’ may or may not be an expectation of command preparation for that military leadership class, but even for societies where it is, no one expects to simply ‘work their way up’ from the ranks. Instead, in pre-modern armies as in modern ones, there is generally a sharp and rarely bridged (in pre-modern armies, often flatly unbridgeable) divide between officers and senior enlisted personnel, because there is a class difference being expressed.

The alternative assumption is to assume that pre-modern command preparation must look rather a lot like modern command preparation or at least some version of modern education: there has to be a ‘generalship academy,’ with classes and competitive exams and so on. This tendency is, I think, heightened in a lot of fiction where the audience are young adults and so the core conceit is basically, “what if high school and college was all facets of life?” because high school and college is the social structure the reader knows and cares about. So you get the military academies of Fire Emblem: Three Houses or Trails of Cold Steel or Final Fantasy VIII (a trope that clearly started in Japan but feels like it has worked into English-language young adult fiction over time as well). Pre-modern societies functionally never have these formal institutions for officer training. The only major exception here is the aforementioned Chinese civil service system, but that didn’t train command or military skills, which were left to be acquired through experience and apprenticeships.

But of course leaders must be trained. These societies engage in quite a lot of warfare and they cannot afford to simply be bad at it, so leaders have to be prepared.

The most common answer by far is some form of apprenticeship system: young potential leaders (from the right social class) are trained with a mix of informal tutelage (at the hands of more senior leaders) and experience, often in a sequence of experiences and roles that is quite clearly and often rigidly defined. Not always so, mind you – the path by which became a general in ancient Greece was often a lot less predictable, for instance – but frequently so.

So, for instance, the Roman cursus honorum, the sequences of posts and offices a Roman aristocrat embarking on a political career might hold, has a pretty clear bent towards military preparation. A young man would first serve a few years ‘in the ranks’ (typically as a cavalryman, because he’s rich), before trying to obtain a post as a military tribune (essentially a staff officer), where the expectation was that the commanding general he served under (a consul or a praetor) would take his tribunes under his wing. Military tribunes also had some command duties, generally lower-stakes and usually accomplished in pairs. Then came the quaestorship, a financial and administrative office which often meant handling logistics for an army (or the finances of the whole state), again under the watchful eye of more senior magistrates. Then the praetorship represented the first independent opportunity for command, but generally with a small force in a largely pacified region. Only then might a Roman aristocrat, now approaching the eligibility age of 42, consider the consulship and real field command – which of course came with it an expectation of tutoring the next generation of military tribunes and quaestors and so the process repeated. In short, the career path is a series of ‘command apprenticeships.’

The education of a medieval western European knight started even earlier, but was also structured effectively as a series of apprenticeships, although in this case focused as much on personal combat skills (because this is a warrior-aristocracy, unlike the Roman one) as leadership.1 High-born boys would be effectively apprenticed to another noble house as a page at age seven to serve and also be trained in the necessary skills of his rank, including combat and leadership. At fourteen, that boy would graduate into being a squire, a knight’s on-the-field shield-and-armor bearer, learning the skills of the warrior-aristocracy first hand, ideally becoming a knight himself in his early 20s. Even then, he is probably not going to be handed a large unit, but rather be expected to lead his own small unit, while the more senior (by both age and wealth) members of the nobility lead larger retinues.

As an aside, popular depictions of knights miss a component of this because they tend – the recent Knight of the Seven Kingdoms does this, albeit with a plot excuse that the main character is a very poor knight – to have a knight on his own with just a squire or a page. But in practice even a relatively humble knight was expected to lead a small unit (a ‘lance fournie‘) of at least a half-dozen men. Of course the kind of boy who might, by dint of birth, expect to end up commanding much larger retinues would probably squire for a lord who also commanded much larger retinues.

Alternately, we might even jump well into the early modern period and look at the career path for an officer in the French army of the 17th century.2 Aspiring officers, drawn from France’s old knightly and noble classes, first served a couple of years as a regular soldier (either as a cadet or as a volunteer serving with a relative), before being pulled into service as one of the very junior officers (ensigns and sous-lieutenants). Service at that level qualified a young man to seek to purchase a commission as a captain to lead a company, where he served under a colonel. In each step, a young men relied substantially on patronage and support from his superiors and so young officers were encouraged to attach themselves to more senior ones both to try to learn and to try to impress. Captains who came from wealth could eventually purchase a commission as a colonel, while those who lacked it might instead advance to the dead-end administrative post of major. The king then chose the officers above the post of colonel, but generally from men who had processed through this system. Lynn openly describes the system as one of “military apprenticeship.” The period’s navies worked much the same, except that the highly technical nature of naval warfare meant the apprenticeship was longer and involved more formal learning.3

In literate societies, these apprenticeships might be supplemented with written guidebooks, military manuals of various kinds. There is an odd tendency in modern fantasy fiction to pooh-pooh this sort of thing – Game of Thrones (the show, in particular) goes out of its way a few times to cast aspersions on the usefulness of such works – but the fact that societies with literate military aristocracies produce and preserve these kinds of works with regularity suggests that the fellows who would know best – the one’s actually leading armies – found them useful.

In the pre-modern era, however, such military manuals are rarely strictly technical in nature – they are not very much like a modern field manual. Instead, they tend to be framed more like a work of philosophy, laying out general principles for command, compiling lists of strategems or famous examples of tactics and so on. Often they extend beyond what we might consider strictly military matters, to include general advice on rulership, blending into a genre we call ‘mirrors for princes,’ guidebooks on how to rule well. The key thing to keep in mind is these manuals were not intended as textbooks for classics, but often works for reflection, intended to be read (and re-read) alongside a man’s trip through his military apprenticeships. Purely technical ‘reference’ books existed as well (Vitruvius’ De architectura is a paradigmatic example), but seem to have been more rare; they get a lot more common after gunpowder, when a command of engineering and mathematics (for ballistics) suddenly become a lot more important.

However, for someone looking to come to grips with the leadership culture of a pre-modern society, I would encourage you to see military manuals and mirrors for princes operating within a continuum of other literary works: histories, epics, religious texts and so on, all of which are telling aristocrats how to be aristocrats. These men, after all, are not generally professionals trained in a school, they are members of a permanent, hereditary (or semi-hereditary) military-leadership class and so excellence at command for them often consists of the refinement of the manners and habits of their class. That might include careful logistics or sound tactical planning, but equally it might include poetry, courtly manners, the habits of a good patron and so on. The delineation we expect between the professional skills of ‘military science’ and the social skills of the professional managerial class (to which most modern officers belong) simply does not exist for pre-modern societies where military leadership is not professionalized.

Thinking About Leadership

For the worldbuilder then, thinking about fictional armies (or the student of history thinking about real ones), be sure to think about the entire military-leadership life-cycle. After all, when the important council of war gathers, it isn’t just going to be the top generals involved: those generals have their own subordinates (who are also their apprentices), who may have their own subordinates (who are their apprentices) and so on. One thing that is often missing in these sorts of stories are the host of junior officers we know would normally be present, observing the decision-making process – even if, because they’re more junior in age or rank, they aren’t expected to say anything.

So the first question should be “where does the ‘officer class’ as it were, of this society come from?” Some kinds of armies can get away with fairly minimal numbers of officers and relatively amateurish ones, but most more sophisticated kinds of warfare demand a fair bit of organization. Keep in mind, when thinking about this question, the sharp limits on both information gathering and on issuing commands, which is going to mean that leaders even relatively small distances away from the ‘center’ (whoever is in overall command) are going to be exercising a lot of independent leadership. As a result, there are probably a fair number more fellows involved in leadership and decision-making than you might expect for even a very modest army.

Next, think about what kinds of peacetime life habits the officer class might have. Since they’re unlikely to be professionals, chances are they are large landholders, or (in a pastoral society), large herd owners. The war leader is more often the fellow who wields the most influence within a society – on account of wealth, charisma, family connections and so on – than the best fellow at commanding, so think about what kinds of power matter within the aristocracy and what latitude the social system has for advancement based on merit. But also think about how these fellows interact with subordinates in their peacetime role, because that is likely how they will default to acting in a military role – it is the ‘leadership skillset’ they are learning even when they are not in the saddle. Roman command behavior, I’d argue, flows very directly out of Roman patron-client relations and their habits. Likewise, it is hard not to see medieval leadership language conditioned both by the war aristocrats related to fellow aristocrats in their household (the knights in the retinue of a lord, for instance) and also the far more domineering way they interacted with their peasants (who might be their common soldiers).

Above all: these men are attempting to perform generalship. They are not so much moving pieces on a chessboard as they are playing on a stage, attempting to look the part of being a general because that is actually what often mattered the most.

Finally, think about how these men advance – not merely who decides who gets to be the general, but also who gets to decide who advances through more junior offices. Systems will, after all, select for the skills which ensure advancement and a system of elected generals is going to work quite differently from a system where advancement has more to do with patronage from senior officers to more junior ones, which in turn is also going to be very different from a system where state power is so weak that ‘advancement’ just means having the largest private army within a larger retinue-of-retinues force.

Next week, we’ll shift our focus from leadership back to the common soldiers to look at how to think about the cohesive principles of a given force, since different armies rely on different systems to generate that all important cohesion.

The small business boom

Across the country, founders like Ms. Winkler are powering an entrepreneurial renaissance.

Jump-started by the pandemic, when a confluence of factors including mass layoffs and remote work led to a flood of business creation, and supercharged by the rise of artificial intelligence, start-up activity is booming after a decades-long slump.

Americans filed 5.7 million applications last year to start new businesses, according to the Census Bureau, the most in the two decades the government has kept track. New business applications through the first half of this year continued to climb…

More recently, there are signals that A.I. is adding fuel.

recent paper from economists at the University of British Columbia and the Stockholm School of Economics found that generative A.I. was “spurring entrepreneurial activity” in the United States, both by giving rise to new ventures built around the technology and by making it cheaper to start enterprises.

“A.I. tools can do very many different things very well,” said Jan Bena, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia and one of the study’s authors. “That’s the reason why you see so much entry.”

According to a recent report from Gusto, a small-business payroll and benefits service, nearly 60 percent of founders on its platform who started businesses last year said they used A.I., and half said the technology made it cheaper and faster.

Here is more from Sydney Ember at the NYT.  Via Josef.

The post The small business boom appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

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July 16, 2026

An exchange yesterday between Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Jay Clayton, Trump’s nominee to oversee the U.S. intelligence community as director of national intelligence, illustrated the dilemma of those trying to force Trump’s lies onto the American people when they are confronted with reality.

Ossoff asked Clayton: “Who won the 2020 election?”

Clayton responded: “Uh, you know, I’m not, I’m not gonna do this with you.

Ossoff: “This is a job interview. We’ve established that you have an obligation to be honest and forthright with the committee.”

Clayton agreed.

Ossoff: “Who won the 2020 election?”

Clayton: “Like I said, I’m not I’m not gonna get into that with you.”

Ossoff continued to ask, and Clayton continued to refuse to answer the question, saying: “We can keep doing this,” and saying he was not going to “engage in the theater.”

Ossoff said: “You’re here asking for the support of senators to lead America’s intelligence community. We’ve established that you have an obligation to be honest and forthright with this committee and with the American public, but you refuse to answer a simple matter of fact about the 2020 election. Is that right?”

Clayton: “No, that’s not right.”

Ossoff: “Then answer the question. Who won the 2020 election?”

Clayton: “I have answered the question.”

Ossoff: “Answer it. What is your answer?”

Clayton: “I’ve given you my answer.”

Ossoff: “What is your answer?”

Clayton sat in silence.

Ossoff: “You refuse to answer a basic question about who won a presidential election? But you ask to lead America’s intelligence community? Isn’t it humiliating to be unable to answer this question? To have to indulge the president’s delusions? We know, you know, everybody in this room knows the truthful answer to that question, why can you not give it?”

Clayton could not answer because, although all of the claims of Trump and his loyalists that he won the 2020 presidential election have collapsed in court, Trump requires his cronies to claim that the election was stolen in order to have justification for rigging future elections. They know the truth—that Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Democrat Joe Biden by more than 7 million votes and by 51.3% to 46.8% in the Electoral College. But they refuse to say so because if they do, they will lose Trump’s favor.

Those loyalists are the people Trump is putting in control of the American government. In his own confirmation hearing today for elevation to the position of attorney general—the person at the head of the country’s legal system, representing the American people—Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche slipped. When asked if he and Trump were friends, Blanche answered, “I’m his lawyer,” before correcting himself to say: “was his lawyer.”

Blanche was Trump’s criminal defense attorney and has openly used the power of the Department of Justice to pursue Trump’s political opponents.

The editorial board of the New York Times called out another problem with Blanche. On Monday, U.S. District Court Judge for the Southern District of Florida Kathleen Williams questioned whether Blanche is fit to practice law at all. She found that the slush fund/immunity deal Blanche signed off on with Trump, the Trump family, the Trump Organization, and their associates had been manufactured to give cover to a deal they did not want reviewed by a judge.

Yesterday we saw in real time how, with Blanche’s support, Trump is stacking the courts with loyalists. In Seattle, Washington, a panel of federal judges appointed by five presidents unanimously appointed Roger Rogoff, a former judge and longtime state and federal prosecutor as U.S. attorney. The judges appointed Rogoff to replace the Trump appointee whose 120-day interim position ended in February. By law, an interim U.S. attorney can stay in office for no more than 120 days, but Trump has tried to get around that law by changing the title under which his appointees operate, turning the interim U.S. attorney into an assistant U.S. attorney while leaving the top position empty.

The judges, to whom replacing an interim U.S. attorney falls if there is no presidential appointment, unanimously agreed to Rogoff. He took the oath of office at 8:00 in the morning and, within the hour, received an email telling him he was fired.

“District court judges can appoint a temporary U.S. Attorney, and [the president] can fire them,” Blanche posted on social media Wednesday.

Trump’s styling of himself as an authoritarian ruler showed yesterday in the announcement from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the Treasury will issue a new commemorative $1 coin with Trump’s likeness on it this fall as “a lasting symbol of patriotism.” It is unclear if the coin will circulate as currency.

While living monarchs who are heads of state appear on coins, living political leaders who appear on currency tend to be those trying to make themselves indistinguishable from the government. Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Idi Amin in Uganda, and Saddam Hussein in Iraq all put themselves on currency. The U.S. passed a law in 1866 barring living people from appearing on U.S. financial instruments.

According to Alice Gibbs of Newsweek, the Trump administration is getting around that law by relying on a law permitting the coining of collectible currency to mark the nation’s 250th anniversary, as the country did with its bicentennial quarters in 1976.

Luke Broadwater and Marco Hernandez of the New York Times today did a deep dive on the helipad Trump is building on the South Lawn of the White House. They note that it’s usually very hard to get permissions to build a helipad because of zoning laws, airspace regulations, and impact on the environment. Trump himself has said there is “no harder zoning thing to get.”

But Trump is pushing ahead with the one he wants without permission from Congress and without any review panel. Construction began last month on the site where Trump had ordered an Ultimate Fighting Championship stadium built for a cage match on his birthday. Trump says Lockheed Martin, which is a major defense contractor and which makes the new, powerful helicopters Trump uses, is donating the money to build the helipad.

A spokesperson for the White House told the reporters that “operational upgrades to the White House grounds, such as the helipad installation, do not require commission reviews.”

Trump did not get reviews or permissions to renovate the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool either, and when that went poorly he insisted that vandals had attacked it. His loyalists parrotted his claims, and the Department of Justice went so far as to arrest and charge 67-year-old cyclist David Hearn, who touched part of the pool’s detached lining, accusing him of vandalizing it.

Today Jarrett Ley, Meg Kelly, Klara Auerback, and Maura Judkis of the Washington Post reported that all of the peeling occurred at the seams of the lining and that experts said those failures were likely due to the way the lining was installed. They explained at length what those mistakes were.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers denied that this could be the case. “There were no missteps during the initial repairs to the pool,” Rogers said. “Unfortunately, deranged individuals made several gashes in the side of the pool and destroyed over 300 feet of the pool’s siding. Once the necessary repairs to fix the vandalism are complete, the Reflecting Pool will be restored to all its glory.”

Trump’s conviction that he and his cronies should run the United States without input or check from Congress or experts and without reference to reality has brought us to a perilous place.

Trump yesterday told the Fox News Channel that the U.S. is planning to attack Iran’s bridges and power plants. Today, Parisa Hafezi, Samia Nakhoul, and Jonathan Saul of Reuters reported that Iranian leaders have asked the Houthis they back in Yemen to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait that commands the opening between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb are the two main routes for oil exports from the Middle East. The closure of the second strait would exacerbate energy shortages even as the U.S. oil reserve drops to its lowest level since 1983.

Despite the administration’s insistence that addressing climate change is a “scam,” the extreme weather caused by climate change has sparked more than 800 wildfires in Canada and at least a dozen in northern Minnesota. Smoke from the fires is exposing Americans from the Midwest to the Northeast to hazardous levels of air pollution.

CBS News reports that Detroit, Minneapolis, and Chicago today rank in the top five most polluted cities in the world, and that officials in New York City are distributing N95-type masks to commuters. Ben Noll of the Washington Post reported that more than 115 million people are in the plume of unhealthy to hazardous air quality and that conditions are expected to get worse.

At the same time, pouring rain in the Texas Hill Country is causing deadly floods. CNN reported that the Guadalupe River at Comfort, Texas, rose more than 25 feet in an hour as the heavens dropped about half a year’s worth of rain in southern Texas.

Meanwhile, there are now nearly 7,000 known cases of food-borne illness from a parasite that is causing “explosive diarrhea” in patients in more than 30 states across the U.S. Brian Beutler of Off Message commented: “I feel like if Biden or Obama had turned America into a diarrhea splatter film, Republicans would’ve made it into a political problem for them.”

A new Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed that Trump has lost even many Republicans. Only 37% of those polled approve of his job performance, while 61% disapprove. The percentage who “strongly” approve of Trump has dropped to a new low of 15%. Only 26% of Independents approve of his job performance, while 71% disapprove. Sixty-six percent of Americans say groceries are unaffordable.

And so, with Trump scheduled to give a prime-time address tonight, apparently to argue for voter restrictions, Senator Ossoff told reporters: “Here’s what’s going to happen tonight: the world’s most famous sore loser will deliver a prime-time presidential sour grapes address to pursue his 6-year-old grievances about the 2020 election, while his war in the Middle East spirals out of control and the cost of living continues to rise for Americans across the country.”

Notes:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/16/us/politics/white-house-helipad-trump.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/opinion/todd-blanche-attorney-general-senate-hearing.html

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-federal-prosecutor-seattle_n_6a584854e4b07a7875d1956c

https://www.axios.com/2026/07/15/trump-situation-room-iran-bombing

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-tells-houthis-close-red-sea-gateway-if-us-hits-power-network-sources-say-2026-07-16/

https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/071526-us-strategic-oil-reserve-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1983

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/cdc-parasite-cases-diarrhea-cyclosporiasis-b3016131.html

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Ending-the-Green-New-Scam-Fact-Sheet.pdf

https://natural-resources.canada.ca/forests-forestry/wildland-fires/climate-change-wildland-fire

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wildfires-smoke-millions-exposed-midwest-northeast-us/

https://abcnews.com/US/dangerous-wildfire-smoke-continues-air-quality-alerts-17/story?id=134809268

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/16/weather/live-news/texas-flash-flooding-camp-mystic-climate

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/07/16/wildfire-smoke-will-worsen-northeast-mid-atlantic-through-friday/

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28476291-hearn-motion/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2026/07/16/reflecting-pool-peeling-likely-caused-by-application-flaws-experts-say/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f001

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/15/opinion/blanche-confirmation-trump-attorney-general.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/16/trump-approval-stuck-30s-post-ipsos-poll-shows/

https://www.newsweek.com/iraq-syria-libya-countries-with-political-leaders-on-coins-trump-joins-12203076

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2026/07/16/wildfires-smoke-air-quality-alerts-canada-minnesota/90939898007/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0m7n427xd8o

Substack:

@brianbeutler/note/c-292693465

X:

DAGToddBlanche/status/2077501246294929627?s=20

Bluesky:

chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mqqupeotzs2k

atrupar.com/post/3mqp24kjgcv2r

atrupar.com/post/3mqox63w2od2d

atrupar.com/post/3mqrtinhyls24

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Politics Chat, July 16, 2026

Book Review: "Power and Progress"

My elderly rabbit Giggles has unfortunately been quite sick the past two days (he’s recovering now), so I haven’t had as much time to write. Instead I thought I would repost a book review I did two years ago. I’ll be back with more original content tomorrow!

In my post yesterday about the “We Must Act Now” statement, I noted that Daron Acemoglu successfully got the writers to alter some key language in exchange for his signature — most likely, adding the “steering” idea that I took issue with. Technological “steering” is the central policy recommendation of Acemoglu’s 2023 book Power and Progress, with Simon Johnson.

As it happens, I wrote a review of Power and Progress, back in 2024. In fact, it was by far the longest book review I’ve ever written.1 I actually read the book cover to cover in detail, marking passages and looking up sources as I went; this took a very long time, and it was very frustrating, since I had serious objections to nearly every part of the book. I took out that frustration by writing a very long and highly critical review.2

So anyway, here’s that review for you to enjoy. Hopefully it gets a few people to think a little harder about the AI-related ideas that Acemoglu has been promoting throughout the econ world, and why it would be a big mistake to make those ideas the default position of the economics profession on the AI issue.


“Do not be fooled by the monumental technological achievements of humankind.” — Acemoglu and Johnson

It’s hardly surprising that Power and Progress made it onto practically every list of the most important business books of 2023. First, there’s the unrivaled pedigree of the authors themselves. To call Daron Acemoglu a powerhouse in the world of economics would be a ludicrous understatement:

Acemoglu is also the main proponent of the institutional explanation for national development, through his famous book Why Nations Fail and its sequel, The Narrow Corridor (both with James Robinson). If you hear me talk about “inclusive institutions” and “extractive institutions”, I’m channeling Acemoglu.

Simon Johnson, meanwhile, is the author of some of my favorite popular books about economic policy, especially Jump-Starting America (with Jonathan Gruber) and 13 Bankers (with James Kwak). When I write more about the need to spend more on science and to restrain the excesses of the finance industry, I’m channeling Johnson.

The second reason this book was destined to garner attention is that it brings together two extremely timely strains of thought: 1) the widespread distrust of tech companies that has grown in American society over the last few years, and 2) the wave of anxiety over AI-driven automation. Power and Progress weaves those two anxieties into a more-or-less coherent whole — a sum of all technological fears, if you will. And it seems to have been spectacularly well-timed, since its release coincided closely with the coming of ChatGPT and other generative AI.

But given all of those powerful tailwinds, I have to say I’m kind of surprised at how little of a splash Power and Progress seems to have made. This is anecdotal of course, but in the 9 months since it came out, I’m not sure I’ve once heard someone reference the book or any idea in it. The authors clearly intended it to be a handbook for people who are scared about AI putting humans out of a job, the way Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century became a handbook for people worried about inequality, or Robert Gordon’s The Rise and Fall of American Growth became a handbook for people concerned about technological stagnation. But I don’t think it did.

Why not? One reason might be that the timing wasn’t as favorable as it might appear. Contrary to Acemoglu and Johnson’s assertion (on p.24 of the hardcover edition) that we live in an age of “blind techno-optimism”, the internet is absolutely chock-full of arguments and warnings about the downsides of AI. Concerns over the risk of rogue Artificial General Intelligence resulted in a boardroom coup attempt that almost drove Sam Altman out of OpenAI. Worries that AI wouldn’t uphold diversity led Google to implement some pretty hilarious countermeasures. Fears of mass surveillance, deepfakes, etc. are widespread. And of course the idea that AI is going to lead to mass unemployment is absolutely ubiquitous — so much so that practically every San Francisco tech event I go to features discussions about exactly this subject. Yes, even dance parties.

In other words, Power and Progress may have come out a little too late to make a big splash, and instead ended up just being one more voice shouting in the chorus.

On top of that, though, I have to say that this book…well, I just don’t think it’s very good. I winced while I wrote that sentence, because Simon Johnson is a personal friend, and Acemoglu is a celebrated genius, and because both of them have written such good books in the past. This is the first broadly negative book review I’ve written since 2014, and I’m a lot less combative of a blogger than I was a decade ago. I did not want to pan this book, especially because I think the topic is a good and important one, and I think the authors are brilliant people whose hearts are in the right place.

But I just don’t think the way this book was written ends up supporting the conclusions it draws. The historical examples it cites simply don’t support a narrative of out-of-touch technologists inventing the wrong sorts of technologies and hurting workers in the process. The book embraces a highly questionable definition of “power” in which persuasion in an open democratic society is painted as a threat. It often seems to assume its conclusions about the impacts of specific technologies, and it tells a jumbled and confusing story about the role of productivity growth. And its central claim — that society can push entrepreneurs to steer innovation in a direction that augments humans instead of replacing them — is not well-supported.

All in all, Power and Progress just fails to convince.

The basic idea

Power and Progress is of the “magisterial sweeping tome” class of econ book, like Capital in the Twenty-First Century, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, or Brad DeLong’s Slouching Toward Utopia. Much of the book is a history of technological innovation in general. As such, it tends to ramble; the authors often seem to get so caught up in the telling of this history that they neglect to tie each event to their central theses. In fact, those are often the most fun and fascinating parts of the book. But if I were to boil down Power and Progress to a set of core ideas, it would be:

  1. Technological innovation’s impact on human welfare depends crucially on social choices about how those innovations are used.

  2. Those choices are determined by the relations of power in a society, and in recent decades our choices have been steered in a negative direction by the power of tech company founders and venture capitalists.

  3. The type of technologies that society invents can be chosen so as to distribute benefits more widely, by avoiding technologies that replace workers and inventing technologies that complement workers.

It’s the last of these that the book is most known for, because it’s the boldest, the most original, and the most controversial. But first let’s talk a bit about the other two.

Questionable historiography

The idea that technology’s impact on society is not determined solely by the nature of the tech itself, but depends on how we choose to use it, is obvious enough to be a truism. Everyone knows how the industrial technologies that have created so much wealth are also put to destructive uses in wars. Everyone knows that the same camera technology that lets you talk to your friend in a different city can allow governments to spy on their citizens. Everyone knows that there is a vast system of laws, international agreements, and social norms whose purpose, at least in theory, is to ensure that technology is used for good and not for ill.

But even though “technology can be used for bad purposes” should be a simple truism, Acemoglu and Johnson pick some very odd examples to illustrate the principle. For example, in the prologue, they have a list of what they claim are “new inventions that brought nothing like shared prosperity”. Here’s the fifth item on their list:

At the end of the nineteenth century, German chemist Fritz Haber developed artificial fertilizers that boosted agricultural yields. Subsequently, Haber and other scientists used the same ideas to design chemical weapons that killed and maimed hundreds of thousands on World War I battlefields.

The idea that the Haber-Bosch process has “brought nothing like shared prosperity” is an absolutely wild claim. Nitrogen fertilizers are so important to human existence that by the most common estimates, about half of the entire population of Earth — 3.5 billion people — is only sustained thanks to this technology. But because that same chemical reaction was used to create one particular type of chemical weapon that was responsible for a tiny fraction of the deaths in one particular war, Acemoglu and Johnson feel comfortable saying that a technology that literally gives life to half of humanity “brought nothing like shared prosperity”. It is the kind of claim that is so obviously wrong as to leave the reader slack-jawed — and yet it is deployed in support of an overall thesis for which countless better examples exist.

Unfortunately, this kind of questionable selection of historical examples is a hallmark of Power and Progress all the way through. For example, in Chapter 6, the authors write:

[Belief in the power of productivity] suggests that as technology advanced rapidly during the early phases of the Industrial Revolution, wages should have risen. Instead, real incomes of the majority stagnated.

Acemoglu and Johnson conclude that because textile manufacturing technologies were biased toward automating workers, they immiserated the working class of 1700s Britain. But those same textile manufacturing technologies have been at the center of the early stage of every other country’s industrialization as well. China went through a period where it made most of the world’s clothes, with its share peaking in the late 2000s. In 1995, apparel was China’s biggest export category.

But during this time, when Chinese garment workers were getting the descendants of the original British industrial technologies of power looms, their wages were skyrocketing — as were wages in the economy as a whole. The same is now true of Bangladesh — the country focuses relentlessly on the garment industry, and has access to all of the old automation technologies, and yet incomes in the country have tripled since 1990.

(As a side note, it’s kind of funny that after we’ve used “Luddite” as a slur for technophobes for all these years, Acemoglu and Johnson explicitly try to rehabilitate the original Luddites, writing that they “were right to worry about knitting frames decimating their livelihoods”. For this reason, I considered subtitling this review “the Bible of the Luddites”, but decided that the negative connotation of the word was too strong and it would be rude.)

A third questionable example in the book is the story of the Panama Canal. Acemoglu and Johnson describe the brutal exploitation of the workers who built the canal, and declare the project a “colossal failure”. That brutality was certainly real. But the authors cite it as a reason that the technology of the canal itself failed to bring broad-based prosperity. In fact, the opposite seems true; thanks to the canal, the people of Panama today enjoy a standard of living much, much higher than that of their Central American neighbors. This is not to say those economic benefits were worth the human cost. But the canal’s problems clearly seem associated with its construction, rather than unfair distribution of the benefits from the technology itself. Could the same canal have been built using more humane labor standards? The authors decline to speculate, simply declaring the whole project a failure and not even mentioning Panama’s prosperity.

A fourth dodgy example is the story they tell about Japan. In Chapter 8, Acemoglu and Johnson praise Japanese companies for “combin[ing] automation with the creation of new tasks”, noting that Japanese automakers didn’t reduce their workforces like American automakers did. But Japan’s manufacturing sector wages, like wages throughout the rest of the country, have been falling since the early 1990s, while American wages have stagnated but not fallen. So this story doesn’t fit the data.

A fifth example is in Chapter 7, when Acemoglu and Johnson write that “Henry Ford was a pioneer” in developing “a more cooperative relationship” with his workforce. I’m just wondering how this “more cooperative relationship” involved hiring thugs to gun down union organizers. Ford did pay higher wages to increase efficiency, but his actual dealings with representatives of labor was brutal and intolerant.

I could go on citing these questionable examples — my copy of Power and Progress is stained blue with all the notes I made in the margins — but this review would run into the dozens of pages, and you would quit long before you finished. But because there are so many questionable examples, Power and Progress is the kind of book that must be read closely and with a critical eye.

Update: In the comments, Brian Potter adds:

Another strike against this book is its terrible scholarship: it frequently gets basic facts incorrect because the authors haven't bothered to actually research the topic. Example: it claims at several points that Eli Whitney was responsible for the development of interchangeable parts, a claim that has been widely and thoroughly debunked.

Source?

Another issue with the book’s examples is the lack of footnotes or endnotes. Instead of citing specific works in support of each specific claim — as most books do — Power and Progress has a bibliographic essay at the end. Many sources are mentioned in this essay, but it’s often difficult, and sometimes impossible, to match the sources to specific claims. As a result, you often end up having to choose between exhaustively searching multiple sources to figure out where the authors got a particular point, or simply giving up and trusting that the authors are accurately representing the data.

For example, in Chapter 1 the authors ask “What if…AI also impoverishes billions in the developing world?”, and asserts that “evidence is mounting” that this concern is “valid”. But where is the evidence that AI threatens to impoverish billions? That’s an astonishingly strong claim about a technology about which little is known, and I can’t find any source in the bibliographic essay. An empirical study I do know is Acemoglu, Autor, Hazell and Restrepo’s 2022 paper “AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies”, whose abstract concludes:

We find no discernible relationship between AI exposure and employment or wage growth at the occupation or industry level, however, implying that AI is currently substituting for humans in a subset of tasks but it is not yet having detectable aggregate labor market consequences.

So that paper certainly doesn’t include mounting evidence that AI threatens to impoverish billions. But I can’t find which paper the authors relied on to make this claim.

In fact, because I’ve read many of the Acemoglu papers that undergird this book, I also know that there are instances where the data doesn’t quite say what the authors claim. For example, in Chapter 8, Acemoglu and Johnson argue that “digital technologies became the graveyard of shared prosperity” over the last few decades. In this chapter, they attribute some meaningful piece of the recent rise in inequality to the introduction of digital technologies to the workplace. But because I’ve read Acemoglu and Restrepo’s 2020 paper “Robots and Jobs: Evidence from U.S. Labor Markets”, as well as the working paper version from 2017, I know to be skeptical of this claim.

Acemoglu and Restrepo found that a narrow category of automation — industrial robots — was associated with decreased employment and wages. But as the Economic Policy Institute’s Larry Mishel and Josh Bivens noted, when Acemoglu and Restrepo measured the effect of workers’ “exposure to IT capital” in general — i.e., how much the employers invested in IT tech overall — they found either no effect or a positive effect on employment and wages. Here’s the relevant table from the 2020 version of the paper:

The estimates of a positive impact of IT capital on employment and wages are in the original working paper version, in table A9.

Now, this doesn’t mean that computers and the internet weren’t a driver of mass unemployment or stagnant wages. Maybe they were! Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020) could simply be wrong; in fact, since their working paper first came out in 2018, many other studies have ended up contradicting their findings about the negative impacts of robots. And all of these papers look within specific industries or companies — as does Acemoglu and Restrepo’s 2022 follow-up paper about automation and inequality between demographic groups. The overall effect of automation on economic growth, absolute wages, and the composition of industries in the economy simply isn’t known.

In other words, it could be very well be that automation has been impoverishing people, or it could be that it has been enriching people overall. I’d simply like to know where the authors get the data to back up their claim about information technology, especially when one of the authors’ most famous papers appears to contradict that claim.

To sum up, footnotes and endnotes are a technology that has unambiguously benefitted the world, and even though they can be a bit of a pain the butt, authors should include them.

A questionable definition of “power”

Anyway I digress; back to the book’s central theses.

Despite the questionable examples, it’s clearly true that technology can be used to benefit average people or to hurt them. But how does society choose how to use technologies? Acemoglu and Johnson’s answer is “power”, from which they get the title of their book. But what is power? Here, in Chapter 3, Acemoglu and Johnson deploy a definition that veers into the tautological:

Power is about the ability of an individual or group to achieve explicit or implicit objectives. If two people want the same loaf of bread, power determines who will get it.

Using this definition, how could we ever conclude that power wasn’t the reason for an observed outcome? Two people want a loaf of bread, and one of them gets it; we know this was due to “power”, because “power” is defined by who gets a loaf of bread. This kind of definition is semantically valid, but empirically useless; if you define “power” such that it simply means “whatever caused an outcome to happen”, you haven’t isolated causality, you have simply given it a new name.

Acemoglu and Johnson have a reason for employing a definition this infinitely broad; it allows them to include persuasion and compulsion in a single category of “power”.

The authors’ historical examples of when power determined the distribution of the benefits of technology include cases when laws and the threat of violence allowed some people to extract the benefits of technology for themselves — the cotton gin increasing slaveowners’ profits in the American South, or lords extracting agricultural surplus from peasants in medieval Britain. These are instances of compulsion, which certainly fit with our common, everyday, colloquial use of the word “power”.

But Acemoglu and Johnson also spend a lot of time arguing that persuasion is also a form of power. They cite instances in which techno-optimists and businesspeople in 18th century England and 21st century America persuaded the public to enact pro-business policies, through articles, speeches, conversations, and so on. Their explanation for why inequality has increased since the 1970s is, in effect, that silver-tongued technologists managed to persuade American society to weaken pro-worker institutions, and to allow the technologists to invent technologies that replaced human labor instead of complementing it.

The authors don’t venture to say exactly why these techno-optimists’ pro-business vision prevailed — they write that “an idea is more likely to spread if it is simple, is backed by a nice story, and has a ring of truth to it,” but they admit that “quite a bit of this process [of persuasion] is random,” and declare that “you are enormously lucky if you get the right idea, with just the right ring to it, at just the right time.”

I have to admit, this kind of surprised me. I expected to see some sort of pseudo-Gramscian theory of cultural hegemony (or at least some references to Gramsci or similar writers). Instead, the authors just sort of shrug and put it all down to luck. For some reason, the techbros just wrote really good posts, and by doing so they ruled the world — at least until their luck ran out and the world turned against them, I suppose.

In fact, I have to confess that the entire chapter on power and persuasion left me bewildered. I do not understand why we should put accidental success in a nonviolent marketplace of ideas in the same conceptual category as chattel slavery and feudalism. It seems to yield neither understanding nor solutions. Perhaps the historical example of the cotton gin might give us some insight about how to explain the spread of laissez-faire economics, but simply labeling both things as varieties of “power” does not yield that insight. And the idea that persuasion is power doesn’t seem to suggest any kind of systemic fix for the problem that sometimes society is persuaded to do things that increase inequality.

That doesn’t mean Acemoglu and Johnson have no solutions to recommend, though. They want to strengthen institutions like unions and labor laws, but their main idea is to redirect technological innovation toward technologies that complement workers instead of replacing them.

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a loom

“With such persuasiveness, you tend to convince yourself that you are correct.” — Acemoglu and Johnson

Over the last six years, Acemoglu and Restrepo wrote a series of theoretical papers in which they lay out a number of different ways that new technology can affect workers’ jobs and wages. Basically, this ends up being a fancier version of a very old idea — capital can either substitute for labor or complement it. If capital substitutes for labor, then capitalists win, because they can replace people with machines, and pay people accordingly less. But if capital complements labor, then workers win, because capitalists have no choice but to hire them to work the new machines, and pay them good wages. Acemoglu and Restrepo make this theoretical breakdown a bit more nuanced, but in the end it really boils down to whether machines replace people or augment their abilities (either by making them more productive or by giving them new things to do).

Power and Progress attempts to analyze the history of technology through the lens of this theory. In eras where technology seemed to progress rapidly but workers’ wages didn’t grow much, like 18th century Britain, Acemoglu and Johnson argue that the main cause was technologists inventing machines that replaced human labor; in other eras where wages grew rapidly, like the late 19th century, they argue that technologists were inventing machines that created new tasks for humans to do.

At times this can begin to feel like a just-so story. For example, Acemoglu and Johnson cite electricity as a technology that was good for workers, because it created so many new industries for people to work in. But didn’t electrification also replace human labor in quite a large variety of ways? Electric lights save us the labor of making candles, electric dishwashers and washing machines and dryers automate our housework, and so on. How do we know this task automation outweighed by the new tasks electricity creates?

They also argue that wages in industrial Britain began to increase in the late 19th century because steamships and telegraphs — as opposed to looms — “expand[ed] the set of tasks and opportunities for workers”. As far as I can tell, this is a claim without evidence. Why was the telegraph’s automation of message couriers less significant than its creation of new jobs for telegraph operators? In Chapter 8, Acemoglu and Johnson blame communication technology for increasing inequality by enabling the offshoring of jobs to China and other countries. Why would modern communication technologies have exactly the opposite effect of the telegraph?

And in Chapter 6, Acemoglu and Johnson praise the early United States for its direction of innovation, writing that American businesses compensated for a lack of skilled labor by, in the words of engineer Joseph Whitworth, “call[ing] in the aid of machinery in almost every department of industry.” In Chapter 7 the authors write that the American use of interchangeable parts “was first and foremost an effort to simplify the production process so that workers lacking in artisanal skills could produce high-quality products.” But how is that any different from the British use of power tools to help unskilled make textiles in the 1700s? The difference is never explained.

On the other side of the coin, Acemoglu and Johnson cite most modern information technology as something that automates more tasks than it creates. But what about all the new tasks that IT creates — mobile developers, web designers, digital media marketers, content moderators, and so on and so forth? Why are these less economically important than the tasks that the internet automates away (encyclopedia salespeople, etc.)?

One answer is that if we assume that Acemoglu’s theory of automation is the main thing that’s going on, we can just infer the effects of particular technologies from macroeconomic outcomes — if we see wages stagnate, it must be because task automation outweighed task creation. But for anyone who suspects that Acemoglu’s theory might not actually be the main thing going on in the economy, just saying that the proof is in the pudding is a bit unsatisfying. It feels like a just-so story.

Is productivity good or bad?

In fact, the historical examples in Power and Progress leave themselves open to alternate narratives. The main alternative narrative is about productivity.

Acemoglu and Johnson repeatedly argue that if productivity gains are produced by automation, workers don’t see the benefits. They cite the idea that productivity naturally uplifts workers — which they call the “productivity bandwagon” — as one of the main nefarious narratives that technologists use to persuade society to allow them to invent technologies that replace workers.

But what if the “productivity bandwagon” narrative is true?

There are two main historical periods the authors cite as examples of excessive automation leading to stagnant wages — the early Industrial Revolution in 18th century Britain, where textile machines like looms replaced human artisans, and America since the 1970s. (Note: they make an error when they say, in Chapter 8, that “declines in real wages…have been a major part of U.S. labor market trends.” In fact, when you include benefits, real hourly compensation has grown a bit more slowly since 1973, but has still consistently risen.)

But Acemoglu and Johnson also note that both of these eras had sluggish productivity growth. Perhaps wages were stagnant in those eras because productivity was also stagnant?

Regarding the early Industrial Revolution, some researchers argue that the labor share didn’t actually fall. For example, here’s Crafts (2020):

[R]eal wages grew more slowly than real GDP per worker during the industrial revolution. However, the discrepancy was much less than has been claimed such that in 1820 the former had risen by about 12 per cent since 1770 and the latter by about 16 per cent. Second, labour productivity grew quite slowly prior to 1830 averaging a little below 0.4 per cent per year in the 60 years after 1770. Nevertheless, in the context of demographic pressure this was a very good outcome by pre-industrial standards. Third, as relative prices changed and exportable manufactures became cheaper, over the long run real product wages grew somewhat faster than real consumption earnings. Fourth, the share of profits in GDP rose over time from 17.2 per cent in 1770 to 31.3 per cent in 1860 but this was associated with a decline in the share of land rents and the share of labour was little changed. Fifth, looked at through the lens of growth accounting the evidence is of total factor productivity (TFP) growth accelerating only gradually to 0.6-0.8 per cent per year during 1830 to 1860 with the steam age only materializing after 1830.

In sum, this looks more like a story of paradoxically slow productivity growth than of pro-rich growth. The story of the industrial revolution is definitely not one of a new general-purpose technology boosting productivity growth at the expense of a big shift in the distribution of income which is the current fear about AI.

As for the U.S. since the 1970s, inequality has definitely increased, but — contrary to what you may have heard — pay has largely kept pace with productivity. Automation may have made wages more unequal (this is the argument of Acemoglu and Restrepo’s 2022 paper), but the modest decline in labor’s share of the national pie was probably mostly about land values increasing. Which means that aggregate wage stagnation was largely due to slowing productivity growth in recent years as well.

In fact, Acemoglu and Johnson also blame automation for stagnating productivity! In Chapter 8, they write that “productivity gains from automation may always be somewhat limited.” They coin the term “so-so automation” to describe technologies that take humans out of the loop but fail to increase productivity much by doing so. They argue that technologies that make better use of human capabilities lead to faster productivity growth as well as higher wages and lower inequality.

OK so…why isn’t that the book’s central this? You could write a very interesting book about how technologies that complement humans are better for both productivity and broad-based prosperity than technologies that try to substitute for humans wholesale. I would definitely read that book! But Acemoglu and Johnson did not choose to write that book; instead, they warn against a focus on productivity, claiming that it’s a seductive but dangerous narrative used by the greedy, fast-talking techbros. In my mind, this weakens their overall narrative.

Where’s the menu?

Throughout Power and Progress, the authors tell a story about a “menu of technologies” that entrepreneurs can choose from. On one hand, companies can choose to invest in automation, replacing workers, increasing inequality, causing slow wage growth, and maybe reducing productivity in the process. On the other hand, they can choose to invest in technologies that create new tasks for humans to do, thus increasing wages and decreasing inequality. Their story is that out of greed and/or elitism, entrepreneurs often choose the former, so it’s in the interests of society to push them toward choosing the latter.

But when the authors approvingly cite examples of new industries springing into being, they never give an explanation of why entrepreneurs and technologists chose to create these new industries, instead of trying to cut costs in existing industries. My default assumption would be that the people who invented and commercialized steamships, telegraphy, interchangeable parts, autos, electricity, and telephones were driven by the same sort of motivations that animated the people who invented and commercialized power looms, computers, and the internet. If not, why not? Was there ever a case when governments or unions pushed entrepreneurs to select Option A from the “menu of technologies” instead of Option B?

When Acemoglu and Johnson do discuss union power, it’s in the context of worker training. In Chapter 7, they write:

In fact, for unions [in the 1960s] the central issue was worker training. They insisted on training provisions to ensure that workers could be brought up to the necessary skill level to operate the new machinery and benefit from it.

This is very different from affecting the direction of innovation! This is a case of workers collectively pushing companies to invest in human capital, so that worker skills can catch up to the direction in which innovation was already going.

As far as I can tell, this book does not contain even one single example of when a union or government supposedly pushed an entrepreneur or company to choose a different path of technology in order to benefit workers. As far as I can tell, it does not even contain one single example of when an engineer, entrepreneur, company or investor chose to create a technology in order to benefit workers more.

In other words, there is no evidence here that the “menu of technologies” actually exists. It’s not clear that technologists and industrialists even know in advance whether the inventions they create and commercialize will create more new tasks than they automate. And this raises pointed and troubling questions for the authors’ preferred solution to the problems of inequality and wage stagnation.

Can the mandarins act as a check on the techbros?

In Chapter 11, Acemoglu and Johnson roll out their proposed solutions. Having concluded that inequality and wage stagnation are due to “tech billionaires and their agenda” choosing the wrong technologies from the “menu”, they call for democratic people-power to force the techbros back onto the labor-augmenting path.

What’s totally unclear is how to do this. Acemoglu and Johnson admit that “redirecting” the path of technological innovation is going to be an incredibly tall order:

Determining how different digital technologies are used and their impact on wages, inequality, and surveillance is much harder [than assessing their climate impacts]…Moreover, given the difficulty of distinguishing automation from other uses of digital technologies, automation taxes are currently not practical.

And yet the authors still claim that this can be done! Yet they’re maddeningly vague on the details:

There is a telltale sign of automation technologies: reducing the labor share of value added, meaning that once these technologies are introduced, how much of value added goes to capital increases and how much gets captured by labor decreases…On this basis, technologies that increase the labor share can be encouraged via subsidies for their use and their development.

But how do we know in advance, before a technology is invented, whether it will increase or decrease the labor share? This is just replacing one target of guesswork — new task creation vs. automation — with another target of guesswork.

Fundamentally, it still boils down to some sort of mandarins in a room somewhere — economists? government engineers? bloggers? — trying to assess the economic effects of a technology that doesn’t even exist yet.

As I wrote in a post last June, this is probably an impossible task. Some of the world’s top experts thought that AI would replace radiologists within a few years, but demand for radiologists boomed even as the new AI tools were coming online. The technologists got it wrong.

And the economists are just as likely to get it wrong. For example, industrial robots are the one technology that Acemoglu consistently rails against as an example of harmful automation. That’s based on his 2020 paper with Restrepo, where they found that companies that buy more robots employ fewer humans. But a whole bunch of other economists followed up on this research and found the exact opposite — robot adoption is correlated with more jobs at a company or in an industry. Here was a list I made back in 2022:

I’ll list a few of these studies:

1. Mann and Püttmann (2018) — Where Acemoglu and Restrepo…looked at correlation, this paper attempts to identify causation. They look at automation-related patents in an industry — a proxy for innovation in the automation space — and then look to see whether that industry gains or loses jobs. They find that “advances in national automation technology have a positive influence on employment in local labor markets”, though this isn’t true for every area.

2. Dixon, Hong and Wu (2021) — These authors looked at robot adoption in Canada, at the level of the individual company (or “firm”, as economists say). They found that companies that adopted more robots hired more people, while also improving the quality of their products and services.

3. Koch, Manuylov and Smolka (2019) — This paper looks at firm-level data for manufacturing companies in Spain. They find that robot adoption is associated with a substantial increase in employment as well as output.

4. Adachi, Kawaguchi and Saito (2020) — This paper finds the same thing as the previous one, but for Japanese companies over the course of a 40-year period.

5. Eggleston, Lee and Iizuka (2021) — These authors look at robot adoption by nursing homes in Japan, and find that it strongly increases employment, although it does result in existing nurses working fewer hours (and thus getting paid less).

6. Hirvonen, Stenhammar, and Tuhkuri (2022) — This paper looks at a technology subsidy program in Finland that increased adoption of a broad range of advanced technologies at Finnish firms. They find that this led to employment increases.

In fact, by this point the trend is clear. Essentially everyone is finding that, contra Acemoglu and Restrepo…robots are correlated with — and probably cause — higher employment in the companies and areas where they’re adopted.

What’s happening is that companies that use more robots hire more humans (and retain their existing humans) in jobs that complement the robots. That’s exactly what we saw with previous waves of automation — people find new roles, robots increase their productivity, and they get paid more. Looking at the countries that use the most robots in their manufacturing industry, it seems likely that this virtuous cycle is happening even at the level of whole nations.

Zooming out from just the manufacturing sector, Hötte, Somers, and Theodorakopoulos have a very interesting 2022 review paper in which they look at the literature on the entire range of automation technologies. Here’s an article in which they explain their results. Hötte et al. find that automation does replace jobs, but that this effect is outweighed by the “reinstatement” effect — in other words, people find new jobs to do. And their incomes generally rise as a result.

So no, there’s no possibility that a council of mandarins — engineers, economists, or whoever — can sit there evaluating every potential new technology that companies or inventors want to create, and deciding whether it will raise or lower the labor share. I mean, you could make a council of mandarins, and it could look at plans for new technologies, and it could issue decisions, but in practice it would be throwing darts at a dartboard. And it would be an incredibly costly tax on our companies, since it would introduce massive delays into their decision-making process. Their Chinese rivals, on the other hand, would suffer no such delays.

In other words, I see no hope for Acemoglu and Johnson’s preferred solution. The utter vagueness with which the idea is presented in Power and Progress doesn’t suggest that the authors have thought carefully about how this solution might work in practice.

In particular, these solutions seem inferior to something far simpler: policies to increase labor share ex post. Labor market institutions like co-determination and sectoral bargaining, and direct interventions like wage subsidies funded by taxes on capital income, can push up the labor share without requiring panels of experts to predict the unpredictable. And if entrepreneurs really do have any degree of foresight about whether their innovations will tend to push the labor share up or down, these policies will act like a Pigouvian tax on the kind of cost-cutting that Acemoglu and Johnson decry. With a wage subsidy, for example, the higher the market rate you can afford to pay your workers, the more of a rebate you can get from the government. So if there are technologies that augment your workers and let you hire new workers, a wage subsidy gives you an incentive to create them.

Anyway, I think simple policies like these should be economists’ first go-to solutions, rather than the creation of whole new social institutions.

The old narrative, and the new

At the start of this review, I talked about how Power and Progress may have missed its moment by getting lost in a flood of fears about AI. But there’s another way in which the book might be poorly timed. Wage inequality — the very thing that Acemoglu and Restrepo (2022) try to explain — has flatlined since the early 2010s.

Meanwhile, real wages have been rising strongly for years now, interrupted only by the post-pandemic inflation. And wages for production and nonsupervisory workers have risen more robustly than those for managerial workers:

Source: Arin Dube

Meanwhile, employment for prime-age Americans is near all-time highs, and unemployment is at record lows; everyone who wants a job in America has one.

All this has happened in exactly the time frame during which AI has exploded. Predictive AI burst onto the national scene in 2012 with the ImageNet paper, the basic technology for generative AI was created in 2017 with the transformer paper, and generative AI became really widespread in 2022-23 with LLMs and AI art programs. To reiterate: essentially all of the commercialization and implementation of artificial intelligence has happened during a time in which wages have been rising, inequality has been flat or falling, and employment has been high.

Maybe AI just isn’t big enough to kill all the jobs yet; maybe we just have to wait a few years and we’ll all be unemployed or working for pennies. Or maybe AI is actually the kind of technology that improves task productivity and creates new tasks instead of automating old tasks away. Or maybe Acemoglu has something wrong in his models, and further theoretical and empirical explorations will overturn his conclusions about the key role of automation in fostering inequality. I’m not sure.

Whatever is going on, though, I think it should give the AI worriers pause. This was not on the menu. If you went back to 2012, and asked people to predict the impact of a new machine that could recognize objects and imitate speech and create beautiful art, they probably would have assumed that the rising inequality that they had experienced for the last 30 years would now be turbocharged. And — at least so far — they’d have been completely wrong.

To me, that thought experiment illustrates the folly of trying to predict the economic effects of new technology. It also suggests another reason why Power and Progress didn’t make the same kind of splash it might have made in 2018. Obviously, our economic problems haven’t all been solved. But perhaps, underneath all of the anger and pessimism, Americans realize that something has shifted in their economy, for the better. And perhaps that’s making them a bit less interested in the kind of pessimistic economic narratives that flew off the shelves in the 2010s.


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1

It was about 7000 words, which is 2000 words longer than the review of The Courage to Act that I wrote for International Finance.

2

I also paywalled it, which was probably a stupid decision. Book reviews, especially highly critical ones, shouldn’t be paywalled; they should be disseminated as widely as possible, in order to reach as many of the book’s readers as possible.

The Pentagon's Space Development Agency hasn't moved as fast as anyone would like

The Space Development Agency was established in 2019 to help speed up the deployment of US military space systems by sidestepping the Pentagon's traditional sluggish bureaucracy.

Seven years later, SDA is finally launching its first batches of operational satellites, just as the Pentagon plans to shutter the semi-autonomous agency and fold it back into the Space Force's procurement pipeline, newly reorganized under several program acquisition executives in a bid to streamline weapons buying.

SDA's fate is not a surprise, and lawmakers in both houses of Congress have backed the agency's closure in drafts of this year's National Defense Authorization Act.

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Florice Hoffman needs to chill TF out

Hoffman with Clubber Lang back in happier times.

So there is a woman named Florice Hoffman, who serves as the chair of the Democratic Party of Orange County. She is liberal and devoted and profoundly anti-MAGA and pro-98 percent of the things this website stands for.

She also can be quite the jerk.

In case you missed this, in May Kaitlyn Schallhorn of the Orange County Register wrote a piece headlined, IN AN ORANGE COUNTY ASSEMBLY RACE, A FIGHT BREWS OVER WHO CAN ENDORSE THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES. The story delves into our 68th Assembly District, where four candidates are running for the slot. Officially, the Democratic Party (as headed by Hoffman) has endorsed Santa Ana Mayor Pro Tem David Penaloza, a dude with a high-level beard-stache combo.

Another person in the race is Jessie Lopez, a member of the Santa Ana City Council. Recently, on her website Lopez cited endorsements from “Anaheim Democrats” and “Santa Ana Democratic Club.” Which was 100 percent correct—both groups threw their backing behind Lopez.

Only … eh … according to Hoffman (who really needs to change her name to Florence, just because it’s an easier spell) and the DPOC, that shit couldn’t be listed, because neither group is “chartered with the official state or county party,” according to Schallhorn’s work.

So what did Florence Florice Hoffman do? Did she send cookies and a kind request? No. Did she ask Jo Adell to speak on her behalf? No. Did she go hug a cow? No.

From the article …

And I’m sorry, but … what? Like, what the actual flippity fuck? Lopez wound up removing the endorsements from her website, but I sure as hell wouldn’t have. This is, more than anything, a freedom of speech and expression issue, and if someone running for office is endorsed by local groups that use the word “Democrat” or “Democratic” in the titles—hey, mazel and tov.

The letter sent by the DPOC cited bylaws of the state and county parties—which means (wait for it) nothing when it comes to expression. Seriously, nothing at all. When the Register called ol’ Vern Nelson, who runs the Anaheim club, he rightly noted: “We never told everybody we were chartered. No one asks about or knows what charters are. We’re a club of Democrats in Anaheim. They don’t own any of those words.”

Being serious—this really pissed me off. Hoffman told the Register that only the California Democratic Party can endorse candidates. Which, again, is nonsense, garbage, ludicrous and un-American.

So, in that spirit: We, The (Democratic) Truth OC, officially endorse Jessie Lopez in the 68th Assembly District race. We support her democratically. Double democratically. Triple democratically. She’s the Democrat who this democratic site believes can best represent the Democratic Party when it comes to democracy in Orange County—where this Democratic site exists and thrives. Democratically.

Sue me, Florice.

Trump’s Lies

Frozen 2 should be rated R

I watched Ferris Bueller’s Day Off which was as great as I remember.

It has an age rating of PG-13 in the US and 15 in the UK for bad language and some kissing. (There is also lying to parents but apparently that doesn’t count.)

This seems absurd.

I have way less problem with some light cursing/petting than films that are ostensibly for kids like cartoons and superhero movies that treat mass existential threat as an incident plot point in the hero’s journey.

Like:

  • Frozen 2 in which the entire city is almost destroyed by a tidal wave
  • the recent Superman movie in which the city actually is destroyed, and although it is reconstructed we never hear about the people crushed by debris etc.

Superman is rated PG-13 in the US, 12A in the UK. There’s off-screen loss of life but on-screen is widespread in movies: death with barely any emotional weight.

(a) I’m sure this lack of emotional weight in existential jeopardy is harmful to us.

(b) I’m sure that existential jeopardy in movies is getting more frequent; jeopardy inflation if you like.

(c) It is SO LAZY.

Look at Ferris Bueller: the jeopardy is a car with too many miles on the clock, and Ferris running to get home in time. My kid was on the edge of her seat.

But it takes effort and careful storytelling to set up jeopardy like this. We have to understand Cameron and his relationships and the car’s place in those, and we have to care about Cameron, and we have to feel the stakes, and the ominous arrival of the knowledge… If you were dropped into the movie 20 minutes from the end, you wouldn’t have that setup, it wouldn’t matter.

WHEREAS: death is death, its weight is universal.

So I can see how it flies through production meetings of hurried people. It’s an easy yes.


I am aware this smacks a bit of “oh films were different in my day, you didn’t need all this cursing and violence”…

So I checked.

(This is the joy of AI, you can cross-check your whims.)

I got ChatGPT to develop a jeopardy scoring methodology and here’s what it came up with, from low to high:

1 – Personal or social: embarrassment, exposure, rejection, career failure, losing a competition

2 – Family or bounded community: custody, home, livelihood, family separation, collapse of a small group

3 – Mortal but local: custody, home, livelihood, family separation, collapse of a small group

4 – Collective catastrophe: mass death; destruction or subjugation of a city, nation, population or people

5 – Existential catastrophe: extinction, civilisation, planet, universe, timeline or reality

So Ferris Bueller would be a “1” whereas Frozen 2 would be a “4.”

Then I got it to look up the top 10 films at the box office in north American each year for the last 50 years.

Then score all 500 films according to the main narrative jeopardy. (I assumed that knowledge would be in the training data seeing as these are popular movies.)

If you’re interested, [download the movie jeopardy spreadsheet here(/more/2026/07/film_jeopardy_1976_2025-by-chatgpt.xlsx)] (xlsx).

Finally I got ChatGPT to calculate the average per decade.

Here’s the results in the format:

Period: average jeopardy score (% low jeopardy movies – % high jeopardy movies)

  • 1976-79: 2.77 (43% low – 35% high)
  • 1980s: 2.83 (43% low – 31% high)
  • 1990s: 3.21 (28% – 46% high)
  • 2000s: 3.61 (24% low – 60% high)
  • 2010s: 3.96 (10% low – 72% high)
  • 2020-2025: 4.08 (7% low – 73% high)

i.e. I am not imagining this.

There has been considerable jeopardy inflation in movies between the 1980s and today.


So I think this is harmful to us all.

Death, as it is used in these movies, is not jeopardy but a symbol of jeopardy. That’s part of it being used lazily.

But we should put MASSIVE weight on death and calamity!

Because it’s a big deal! Especially violent death and collective danger.

And when we don’t give it weight, it gets assumed as part of the normal order of things. Which it is not.


One argument is: look Matt, these are cartoon deaths. It’s a superhero movie, it’s fantasy, it doesn’t matter, we know how to look past the lack of weight.

But all video are merely patterns of light on the screen; I don’t think we get to say that one matters more than another; they all occupy the exact same level of “remove” in our minds, and it all matters the same.

If something deserves weight when we see it on the TV news, it deserves weight when we see it in a movie.

Or else we carry the lack of weight when we see it in movies over to the TV news, and then it carries over to the real people depicted.


I always wonder what creates the consensus cosmogony for an era – our collective understanding of how the world works and in particular where we are going.

It was sci-fi in the 1950s (that’s the argument in the link above).

Now I would argue that we have identified at least a tributary of the 2020s consensus:

When we are all exposed to media that normalises death and mass threat, there is something in the psyche that kicks in…

When something built into your sense of reality isn’t happening, you work to make it happen.

Am I saying that we are deliberately, collectively creating situations of mass threat and emotionless jeopardy, because we see it in the movies and it isn’t happening in real life?

Yes. Unconsciously but yes.

So we need to find new collective futures, I’ve talked about that before. That’s a big lift.

But I would start by giving the events in movies the weight they deserve, so they don’t get normalised. We’d all be happier for it.

And that means I would start with the ratings systems.

Ferris Bueller, for all the cursing and kissing, is a movie for kids, give it a G.

Frozen 2 should be rated R.


More posts tagged: inner-and-outer-realities (7).

*The Odyssey*, the movie (no real spoilers)

I can’t say I loved it.  The Circe scene was excellent, Cyclops was good, and the battles in Troy were well done.  But most of the roles were miscast.  I like Matt Damon, but he is too “Good Will Hunting” to play Odysseus.  The character did not cohere.  (Compare to Ralph Fiennes in the superior The Return.)  Zendaya’s role was superfluous.  Worst of all was Calypso, who reminded me of the kind of chick you might meet at a Tupperware party in the Hamptons.  At least half of the dialogue was lame and contrary to the spirit of the Mycenaean world.  Some of the sea and boat footage was good.  I strongly disliked the changes made to the ending.

There is enough energy, effort, and money put into the thing to make it eminently watchable on the big screen.  And if this were a new director, you would think he had great promise.  But relative to both the reviews and where most expectations were placed, this has to count as a disappointment.

The post *The Odyssey*, the movie (no real spoilers) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Friday 17 July 1663

Up, and after doing some business at my office, Creed came to me, and I took him to my viall maker’s, and there I heard the famous Mr. Stefkins play admirably well, and yet I found it as it is always, I over expected. I took him to the tavern and found him a temperate sober man, at least he seems so to me. I commit the direction of my viall to him.

Thence to the Change, and so home, Creed and I to dinner, and after dinner Sir W. Warren came to me, and he and I in my closet about his last night’s contract, and from thence to discourse of measuring of timber, wherein I made him see that I could understand the matter well, and did both learn of and teach him something. Creed being gone through my staying talking to him so long, I went alone by water down to Redriffe, and so to sit and talk with Sir W. Pen, where I did speak very plainly concerning my thoughts of Sir G. Carteret and Sir J. Minnes. So as it may cost me some trouble if he should tell them again, but he said as much or more to me concerning them both, which I may remember if ever it should come forth, and nothing but what is true and my real opinion of them, that they neither do understand to this day Creed’s accounts, nor do deserve to be employed in their places without better care, but that the King had better give them greater salaries to stand still and do nothing.

Thence coming home I was saluted by Bagwell and his wife (the woman I have a kindness for), and they would have me into their little house, which I was willing enough to, and did salute his wife. They had got wine for me, and I perceive live prettily, and I believe the woman a virtuous modest woman.

Her husband walked through to Redriffe with me, telling me things that I asked of in the yard, and so by water home, it being likely to rain again to-night, which God forbid. To supper and to bed.

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When Disaster Strikes In English, Spanish Speakers Struggle On the Margins

Post-Helene, Spanish speakers and Latinos had additional barriers to aid. One Asheville journalist tried to confront that.

Tropical storm Helene spared no demographic as it tore through Western North Carolina, but the recovery in greater Asheville had not been as equally distributed.

The Latino community in particular faced a different and, in some ways, more difficult path post-storm. And while many were able to seek help after this traumatic disaster, Latinos faced many systemic and language limitations that disrupted the way help was found and used.

As one of the few bilingual Latino journalists in Asheville, Jose Sandoval found himself immersed in seeing how language barriers, limited access to aid and immigration-related fears shaped how Latinos recovered. His reporting highlights how in the days and weeks after the storm, Latinos struggled to navigate the systems meant to help them.

“Recovery is going to take years. Here in the city, the debris is gone, but the financial impact still lingers,” said Sandoval, a reporter for Blue Ridge Public Radio, the National Public Radio station in Asheville. “A lot of these effects are still around. I do think Helene exposed a lot of language barriers, especially in how to better reach the [Latino] community.”

While barriers slowed recovery, the Latino community remained resilient, even when governmental systems fell short. Caught in the Current sat down with Sandoval to talk about what happened and what was learned. What follows is an edited and condensed version of that conversation.

Before the storm

Q: Take me back to a few days before Helene hit. What were you hearing from Latino and Spanish-speaking families about the storm, especially as a bilingual reporter?

I think there were preparations from the county, but nobody knew how bad the storm was going to be. People were kind of prepared, but also at the same time not taking it super seriously, because nothing of that magnitude had ever happened here. People were being prepared, but not to the fullest extent possible.

The county was doing a lot of stuff because they have bilingual communication staff. They were going out to different communities telling them, “Hey, just be prepared,” because we got warnings ahead of time from the National Weather Service, but the extent of the damage and the storm; nobody had any clue. It was mostly, people were prepared, but also like, “it may not be that bad,” “maybe they are exaggerating,” and it ended up not being that case.

Q: Did warnings reach Spanish-speaking residents at the same time as English-speaking residents?

I think it probably didn’t reach them the same because people didn’t take some of the warnings seriously. The National Weather Service will translate some of their stuff into Spanish, but besides that, I don’t think it really fully reached people. People who also speak English weren’t taking those warnings seriously. It wasn’t a lack of trying to reach them, it was more like folks were not fully prepared and didn’t take the warning seriously.

Barriers to aid

Q: What about post-storm and the effort to rebuild and seek aid? Did language create a barrier?

An electrical post in Asheville, NC after Helene
Power outages were suffered throughout many parts of Western North Carolina because of tropical storm Helene. Photo credit: Sydney Woogerd

I think so for sure. It’s also status, too, that created another barrier. Most people didn’t know where to go to get water or very simple essential things that they needed, especially during the storm. We were one of the few radio stations that were still up, but we got lucky because we were close to downtown, so the power came back on within a few days. There definitely was a barrier with trying to figure out where to go to get basic stuff like food and water. You had these nonprofits that were on the go immediately after Helene happened, like Poder Emma, True Ridge, We Need x WNC, but there definitely was a barrier because you can’t access your phone, you can’t access the internet, where are you supposed to get this information from?

And for some of these groups, they weren’t going to get their supplies from county staff either, because of that mistrust between the community and government officials. So a lot of the time, folks were going out to these nonprofits for basic supplies, but they had to take whatever information they could find in English, translate it, write it down and pass it by word of mouth to other folks in the community.

Q: Did immigration fears discourage people from going to shelters or applying for FEMA relief?

Families here are of mixed status, so it is very difficult for folks to get FEMA help or SBA loans. What I’m hearing from case managers is that they can’t qualify — they don’t qualify for FEMA or SBA loans because of their immigration status. So it’s been very difficult for some of these folks to get any type of help, and a lot of the help has been coming from nonprofits, like Beloved Asheville and Samaritan’s Purse, or churches.

I interviewed a family out in Swannanoa, a mixed-status family. The mom has residency, but she was hesitant to apply for FEMA, so her son, who was born here, applied for it. Even then they didn’t get that much money after losing a car, their home and having other damage. They just didn’t get that much money, and Beloved came in and rebuilt the homes for them.

There was definitely that type of barrier for aid. You see specific instances of Latinos that might have citizenship or residency but don’t speak English, and they had trouble getting through to FEMA and government agencies because of their inability to speak English. Folks would not apply because they didn’t know whether they qualified or not.

A volunteer with Samaritan's Purse unloads supplies in Asheville
A volunteer with Samaritan’s Purse unloads supplies in Asheville as communities across Western North Carolina continued to rebuild after tropical storm Helene. Photo credit: Sydney Woogerd

The Community

Q: Tell me a little bit about the Latino community here. What are they like?

It’s a very tight-knit community, for sure. The majority of Latinos that live out here, specifically in the city, are Mexican. A lot of them work in agriculture or hospitality because Asheville is such a touristy town, but it’s a very tight-knit community. People know each other. The majority of them live in West Asheville and in the Emma community.

Q: Did the concentrated Latino population face a lot of destruction? Did it affect financial disparity?

Oh, for sure. A lot of the Latinos that live here work in hospitality, agriculture or manual labor, and all that stopped. They were not making money at all, and we didn’t have water or power. Families were reaching out saying, “I don’t know how I’m going to be able to pay rent” because they lost about a month of work. That’s a lot of money, and the financial aspect is 100% — they couldn’t get back to work the same way other people could right away.

A fallen sign and caution tape in Asheville after Helene
A fallen sign and caution tape remain scattered across the grass in Asheville, North Carolina, reflecting the damage and disruption left behind by tropical storm Helene. Photo credit: Sydney Woogerd

Q: Did you notice a visible disparity between how non-Latinos bounce back versus Latinos?

If folks couldn’t qualify for SBA loans, they couldn’t afford to take another loan, and they were taking money out of their own pockets to pay their employees for weeks, and you can tell that the disparity is still there. It’s 100% still there. Is it going to show up in the data? No. There are studies on inequity and disaster recovery, but you’re not going to see the data, because some of these nonprofits are very wary about putting that data out there.

Coming together

Q: Have you noticed any psychological or social effects among the Latino community in Asheville?

We had immigration agents here, and people were seeing folks in ICE gear, in their car. Nonprofits asked local officials to have them wear different clothing because that was preventing people from going to get the help that they need, like food, water and rental assistance. We also had some ICE operations that began in Charlotte a few months ago, and that played a part too, where people were afraid to go out of their house, and even families kept their kids at home.

Q: How did members of the Latino community support one another during the disaster, beyond the work of nonprofits?

You saw people really pulling together, bringing resources together, trying to figure out what was going on. If somebody had a chainsaw, they were bringing it out, chopping down trees so people could get through and get help. People really came together at that time, every single person was looking out for each other.

“Hey, you need more water? You need food? I got you.” “There are trees blocking the way? OK, we’ve got a couple people with chainsaws, we’ll chop it down.” Everybody was very together at that time, because we had no idea what was going on.

Systemic change

Q: Did tropical storm Helene expose issues in how bilingual disaster recovery operates, and are there efforts to improve those systems?

The county had a bilingual communication specialist with strong relationships with nonprofits, but it still showed gaps. From talking to emergency communications staff, everyone agrees they know how to do things better, but there are still major barriers to providing language access. Staffing is a huge issue, and a lot of the time people want to expand outreach, but they don’t have the funding, so it becomes a one-person operation.

Counties are trying to improve, but there are still barriers like staffing and funding, and it’s hard to retain bilingual workers. The county was sharing information in Spanish on social media and doing daily briefings, but if people didn’t know where to access that information, it didn’t help. A lot of communication still came down to word of mouth. There’s still a long way to go, and there’s no perfect system yet.

Q: As one of the few Spanish-speaking journalists in the area, how did you approach outreach to Spanish-speaking residents?

The challenge was getting information out effectively. I was pulling updates from nonprofits and local towns about resource distribution centers, but if people aren’t listening, you’re essentially speaking to nobody. The briefings kept getting pushed back and were airing at random times, sometimes overnight. If people didn’t have a hand-crank radio or weren’t in their car, they weren’t going to hear it.

I brought in Theresa Serrano and a FEMA bilingual communication specialist and interviewed nonprofits in Spanish whenever I could. But it still came back to: Who was actually listening?

I was trying to take a broader look at language access across counties. Most did the best they could with the resources they had, but there’s a big difference between Asheville and more rural areas. In some places, they had Spanish-speaking officers going door to door, warning communities through word of mouth.

Q: Did the language barrier look different in rural areas compared to Asheville?

I think so, for sure. You have a lot of bilingual communication staff in Asheville, but in more rural counties, you’re lucky if you have one, and it’s hard to keep that person around. In those areas, you’re asking one communications person to handle everything in Spanish by themselves, even while going through the disaster too. Here, you have multiple people working in communications, so there’s definitely a difference.

We need a better system. The Spanish-speaking population is the fastest-growing in the region, but the language barrier is still there. Local governments want to improve their relationship with these communities, but language access isn’t required by law, so a lot of the time they’re meeting the bare minimum. It’s a very complicated issue.

Q: In a broader sense, what do you wish readers better understood about language barriers?

I think there still is a language barrier, and it’s complicated. Local governments want to do a better job, but it’s not as simple as hiring one bilingual person and expecting them to handle everything. That puts a huge burden on one person.

With natural disasters becoming more frequent, language access is something we really need to take seriously. It comes down to how we provide information to different communities and whether we’re doing it in the best way possible. How do we improve, how do we prepare people ahead of time, and how do we make sure the message actually reaches them and is taken seriously?

This article is part of Caught in the Current: Helene Recovery in Asheville and Beyond  a project that we have partnered on with the School of Journalism at Northeastern University.  Their enterprising students took on the story of Asheville, North Carolina, a community still dealing with the devastation of Hurricane Helene, 18 months later. As part of our mentoring program, we’re amplifying their efforts by sharing the amazing work produced by their students. Visit the official interactive magazine for the project HERE.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

The post When Disaster Strikes In English, Spanish Speakers Struggle On the Margins appeared first on DCReport.org.

The Growing Crescent of Mars as NASA’s Psyche Mission Approaches

1 Min Read

The Growing Crescent of Mars as NASA’s Psyche Mission Approaches

A time-lapse composite against a black background shows a series of concentric, glowing orange crescent planetary horizons that expand outward from a small central point, illustrating a spacecraft's approach during a Mars flyby.
PIA26586
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

This composite of images taken by NASA’s Psyche mission shows the crescent of Mars grow as the spacecraft approached the planet for a gravity assist from May 2 to May 15, 2026. The series begins with the smallest crescent at the center of the of the image as Mars is farthest from the spacecraft, and progressively grows as the spacecraft gets closer. After these views were captured by the spacecraft’s multispectral imager instrument, Mars began to overfill the field of view as Psyche made close approach with the planet and captured a series of high-resolution images of the surface.

Because Psyche approached Mars from a high phase angle, the planet appeared as a thin crescent in the days running up to the close approach, lit by sunlight reflecting off its surface. Using these views of the approach, close approach, and departure from Mars, the Psyche team compiled a stunning time-lapse of its entire Mars encounter.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post The Growing Crescent of Mars as NASA’s Psyche Mission Approaches appeared first on NASA Science.

Jimothy

Jimothy

I drew a raccoon and other important updates.

View on my website

Firefox in WebAssembly

Firefox in WebAssembly

This is absurdly cool: Puter compiled Firefox to WebAssembly such that the whole browser runs in another browser.

Here's my blog, running in Firefox, running in WebAssembly, running in Chrome:

A Chrome window. The tab has the Firefox UI and has loaded my blog. On the right is the Chrome network panel showing that it loaded resources that include a 233MB gecko.wasm and an 18MB chrome-assets.tar.zst

They chose Firefox/Gecko because it has strong single-process support. The project used an estimated $25,000 worth of Claude Opus and Fable tokens, but took advantage of a Claude Max subscription plan so cost much less in actual dollars.

The demo funnels all traffic over a WebSocket protocol (using the Wisp protocol) through Puter's server - a requirement to get this kind of thing to work because code running in browsers can't open arbitrary network connections.

(That proxying sounds expensive! The team had to scale the servers up to handle the traffic during the Hacker News conversation about the project.)

Puter claim this supports end-to-end encryption and that looks to be true - I inspected the WebSocket messages and traffic to my own HTTPS site was encrypted whereas requests and responses to http://www.example.com/ were in cleartext.

Here's the repo for firefox-wasm. theogbob/WebkitWasm is a similar project that compiles WebKit to WASM, but that one doesn't currently have an accessible online demo.

Via Hacker News

Tags: browsers, firefox, ai, webassembly, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, claude, claude-mythos-fable

Mermaid to ASCII art (mermaid-ascii)

Tool: Mermaid to ASCII art (mermaid-ascii)

After building the Mermaid to ASCII tool based on Grok Build's Rust code I learned that there's an older, more fully-featured Go library called AlexanderGrooff/mermaid-ascii that implements a similar pattern, so I had Claude Fable 5 compile that one to WebAssembly as well so I could compare the two.

This one includes support for colors!

Screenshot of a Mermaid diagram editor web app. A row of tab buttons reads: Flowchart, Multiple links, Subgraphs, Multi-line labels, Colors (selected, highlighted blue), Sequence, Alt fragment, Loop + note, Parallel. Below is a text input area containing: "graph LR / Build:::good --> Test:::good / Test --> Deploy:::warn / Deploy --> Rollback:::bad / classDef good color:#3fb950 / classDef warn color:#e3b341 / classDef bad color:#ff7b72". A control row shows an unchecked "ASCII only" checkbox, "Padding X: 5", "Padding Y: 5", "Box padding: 1", and buttons "Copy as text" and "Copy link to this diagram". At the bottom on a black background is the rendered left-to-right flowchart with four connected boxes: "Build" (green text), "Test" (green text), "Deploy" (yellow text), "Rollback" (red text), each linked by arrows.

Tags: go, tools, webassembly, mermaid

NGC 300: A Cosmic Gemstone with Stars and Gas Clouds


Trump Can’t Get No Respect

Source: Pew

Donald Trump surprised me last night. I expected to hear lurid lies about the 2020 election. What he offered instead was mostly dreary innuendo that convinced nobody.

Which is not to say that his speech was free of lies. Indeed, more or less every word he spoke was a lie, including “a,” “and,” and “the.” But the most spectacular lies weren’t about U.S. elections. They were at the beginning, when Trump boasted about America’s place in the world.

Here’s the part that caught my eye:

We had transgender for everybody, men in women’s sports, crime ravaging our cities, and the whole world was laughing at us as a nation, but not anymore. Two years ago, our country was dead. Now, we are the hottest country anywhere in the world. America is respected like we have never been respected before.

In reality, one of the most spectacular consequences of Trump’s return to power and the mess he has made since has been a collapse of global respect for America. The chart at the top of this post is from Pew’s Global Attitudes Survey, but you don’t need a formal survey to know that the world increasingly despises the U.S. Just travel overseas and talk to people.

And it’s not just public opinion. Governments around the world, very much including nations that used to be our most loyal allies, are scrambling to reduce their dependence, economic and military, on an America that can’t be trusted and has also proved itself far weaker than anyone imagined.

Why do global attitudes toward the U.S. matter? For one thing, they obviously matter enormously to Trump. Claims that America was a laughingstock under Biden but that everyone now admires him are near the top of many of his speeches. Trump is not, to say the least, a man with great inner strength. He lives for external validation, or the appearance of external validation. Clearly, the delusion that the world is in awe of his prowess is key to his fragile sense of self-worth.

More important, Trump’s boasts about America’s international reputation are part of the case he is building for disrupting and/or rejecting the results of the midterm elections. Trump isn’t just insisting that everything is rigged against him. He’s also insisting that since he’s doing such an incredible job — presidenting like nobody has ever presidented before — nobody should get in his way or place any limits on his power.

It’s safe to say that at this point nobody who wasn’t already completely in the Trump tank is being persuaded by all this strutting, or indeed by anything Trump said in last night’s low-energy, boring rant. But remember: At this point, none of what Trump says is really about persuasion. It’s all about laying the groundwork for his attempt to destroy democracy.

MUSICAL CODA

Quoting Kimi K3

Is there something I can actually help you with today?

Kimi K3, after refusing to leak its system prompt

Tags: kimi, ai-personality, generative-ai, ai, llms

LLM cliché highlighter

Tool: LLM cliché highlighter

I got frustrated reading yet another article that was crammed with the clichés of LLM-generated writing - "no fluff, no filler, no jargon" type stuff - so I had Fable 5 vibe code up this app for highlighting ten common patterns that show up in that sort of writing.

Tags: tools, ai, generative-ai, llms

Spot birds not golf

Suggestion for hyperscalers feeling pressure over data center water use:

Buy up a few exclusive country clubs, convert the golf courses into public parks, pay for guides and binoculars to get the previous members into birdwatching - help them embrace a more sustainable hobby!

Google used 10.9 billion gallons in 2025, so about 30 million gallons per day.

The Coachella Valley has 120 golf courses each using ~800 acre-feet per year, which is ~750,000 gallons per day.

So Google buying up 40 of those courses (1/3) should do the trick.

Tags: ai-energy-usage, ai

Latitude and Longitude

NGS and IERS are complaining that they left CLEAR instructions to set the washing machine to WGS84 (G2296) instead of WGS84 (G730).

Another Bad Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

It’s almost like deploying police to protect Trump’s stupid fair on the Mall pulls them out of the neighborhoods they need to be in or something. As of 9am today, D.C. had reported four homicides this week, bringing the total for the year to 52*. Last year, during the same time period, we had 90 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, there were 133 homicides.

Virtually every other crime category increased this week, though, as has been the case throughout the year, car-related crimes are much lower than in the previous year, and robberies are still lower than last year (though that ground is being made up, unfortunately).

However, we are still well on pace for another 33 percent drop in homicides for the third straight year.

Hopefully, next week will be better regarding, well, everything.

*Three of the 55 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence).

Links 7/16/26

Links for you. Science:

Is missing weather balloon data making forecasts worse?
Top 10 Cyclospora questions
A most improbable astronaut just went to space
Prepare for dangerous air pollution in the Northeast, thanks to Minnesota and Canada wildfires
Bottlenose dolphins are relying on fishing trawlers in Adriatic Sea, study finds
CDC confirms 12 sick in ongoing E coli outbreak linked to frozen blueberries (as STEC goes, this strain seems loaded for bear)
The Explosive Diarrhea Outbreak Is About to Get Much Bigger

Other:

The Democratic Establishment Had This Coming (my take here)
Conservatism: America’s Personality Disorder. A military police officer turned researcher explores the relationship between politics and the psychological traits that accompany empathy disorders.
Lindsey Graham Knew Better
Maine’s Three Likely Replacements for Graham Platner
Mamdani invests in tech capacity to “solve real problems”
Lindsey Graham Dead, World No Worse
How Low Would Sam Alito Go?
Graham Platner Was the Perfect Twitter Candidate (this is good, but it also shows how the author, like many journalists, is really dependent on an algorithm)
Senate Democrats block $1.15 trillion defense authorization bill
Yes, Comments Matter!
CNBC’s ‘worst states to live’ list sparks backlash after red-state sweep
Judge tells DOJ to reinstate telework for two attorneys as their lawsuit proceeds
My 30 y.o. shipmate & I are testing all phones on my ship. He radioed me, said there was a ‘really old crank-style phone’ in Steering Gear he didn’t know how to operate. He asked my advice, so I told him to text me a picture/video of the phone. Behold, the Antique Phone he was unable to operate. (lmfao)
Trump Says ICE Should Continue Traffic Stops for Immigrant Arrests (Susan Collins’ influence lasted for twelve whole hours…)
Dick Durbin’s last hurrah is blasted by state and national groups
Medicare Turns 61; The Case for Expanding it to all Americans
What is it with people voting for the party that hates them?
Montgomery County zoning laws silence DIY music venue at Boyds Horse Farm
Democrats lead by 26 points among “double haters” in the 2026 House midterms vote
DC considering building a roof on Audi field, but can the District afford it?
Why is Naomi Klein Funding Substack’s Hate Machine?
He Says He Killed a Man. Republicans Nominated Him Anyway.
Why MAGA influencers are wooing Graham Platner’s male fans
Hack Reveals Suno AI Music Generator Scraped YouTube, Deezer, and Genius
Lindsey Graham’s Defense of Brett Kavanaugh Told Us Everything
The American E.V. Has Been Crushed. Will It Take the U.S. Auto Industry With It?
Bernie and AOC Are Taking On AI. Only One of Them Is Doing It Right.
Thomas Tuchel’s all-time bottle job hands Argentina World Cup final place
Guardian of the Strait of Forever
‘Welcome to West Village’? The ‘the’ Is Not Optional, Say Some New Yorkers.

Friday assorted links

1. David Wallace-Wells on the status of reading (NYT).

2. Very good, very positive Kimi ad.

3. Balaji update.

4. An eighth-century Mayan mathematician.

5. Yet another balloon.

6. Nearby planet with helium-rich atmosphere (NYT).

7. Henry Oliver did not like The Movie.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Darline Graham’s career centered on disability. Now she could help shape national policy.

19th News Logo

Lindsey Graham’s sister has spent decades in South Carolina’s disability services, earning praise from advocates who hope she’ll bring that expertise to Congress.

Unlike her late brother Lindsey, whose political career spanned 33 years, Darline Graham has never run for or held elected office — until she was appointed to serve the remainder of the U.S. senator’s term this week. Instead, she has worked in vocational rehabilitation, publicly funded programs that help people with disabilities overcome barriers to employment.

Due to her lack of political experience, it is difficult to know what her priorities will be between now and January 2027, when Lindsey Graham’s term ends. But to former colleagues and the disability advocates who have worked with her, there is little doubt in Darline Graham’s capabilities. They describe the 62-year-old as a dedicated civil servant who is uninterested in the spotlight and deeply knowledgeable about issues facing the disability community. And they are optimistic she will bring that experience to Capitol Hill.

“She loved her brother. He raised her,” said Kimberly Tissot, president of Able South Carolina, the state’s Center for Independent Living, or CIL, a federally funded center that provides peer support and services for people with disabilities.

“Family is what defines her, but she’s not her brother. That’s what I’ve been telling people [in disability advocacy],” said Tissot, a cancer survivor and amputee who has known and worked alongside Graham for over a decade. “She is a leader, but she’s not the kind of leader to ever brag about what she’s done.”

Tissot was careful to note that she doesn’t think Graham is some kind of secret liberal nor a disability rights activist. In fact, Tissot said, Graham has never seemed particularly political; her dedication has been to her family and to employment for people with disabilities, which has long been a bipartisan issue.

That has certainly been the case in South Carolina. In 2022, the state passed a law ending subminimum wage for people with disabilities. The bill received a unanimous vote in the state Senate and a nearly unanimous vote in the state House. Both were majority Republican at the time. According to Tissot, she and Graham were present at the bill signing.

“But if you know Darline, she’s always in the back,” Tissot said. “For as long as I’ve known her, she just never wanted that recognition.”

Following the law’s passage, Graham was involved in the process of unwinding the state’s remaining subminimum wage. She served on key committees with Tissot, alongside other civil servants and disability advocates.

One of the bill’s main supporters and original sponsors was former Republican state Sen. Katrina Shealy, a longtime friend of Darline Graham’s and a supporter of disability rights legislation during her time in office. They live close to each other and Graham will sometimes come over and drink wine with Shealy on her back porch and “talk to the donkeys” that the former legislator keeps as pets, she said.

Shealy first met Graham through state Republican Party politics, but not because of any strong interest in politics on Graham’s part.

“She’s just been there for Lindsey always, but I don’t think she’s really that political,” Shealy said.

This is a very political moment for disability rights advocates. Massive cuts to Medicaid from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Lindsey Graham supported, threaten disability services in many states. The Trump administration has also moved to dismantle the Department of Education and transfer oversight of special education services to the Department of Health and Human Services, a shift that many experts believe will put students with disabilities at risk. Lindsey Graham did not comment on these actions publicly, but he was a vocal ally of the president and his administration.

On Tuesday, Darline Graham said: “I promise to work hard over the next several months to support the president and carry forward the efforts of my brother on behalf of the citizens of South Carolina and the United States.”

According to Open Secrets’ database of political donations, Darline Graham has made one political donation since 1990, when the nonpartisan nonprofit organization began tracking: $100 to Shealy’s state Senate re-election campaign during the 2020 election cycle.

When Shealy was first elected in 2012, she was the only woman in the South Carolina Senate. She is best known as one of the “sister senators,” a group of five South Carolina lawmakers — three Republicans, one Democrat and one independent — who stood their ground to block a near-total abortion ban in the state. She and the two other Republican “sisters” lost to primary challengers in 2024.

Shealy is no longer working in politics. She is currently a community outreach coordinator for the Brain Health Center at University of South Carolina, one of 33 centers in the United States dedicated to studying Alzheimer’s. She became involved in Alzheimer’s advocacy after her husband Jimmy was diagnosed.

Since 2019, Graham has served as the head of South Carolina’s Commission for the Blind, which focuses on employment and training for people who are blind or have low vision.

David Houck, the executive director of the Federation Center of the Blind, a peer-led organization that trains blind and low vision people to use technology, has worked closely with the commission. Houck, who is blind himself, said he has met Graham on various occasions, although he more often works with her staff.

He has nothing but praise for Graham’s career, which, from Houck’s perspective, gives her knowledge and connections that will serve his community well. He even hopes that she will consider running for office once her time as an interim lawmaker is up.

“She has a great deal of experience from her background and I know the blind in South Carolina support her,” Houck said.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

The post Darline Graham’s career centered on disability. Now she could help shape national policy. appeared first on DCReport.org.

Learning a few things about running SQLite

Hello! I’ve been working on a Django site recently, and I decided to use SQLite as the database. When I was getting started with using SQLite as database for a website I read a bunch of blog posts about how it is totally fine to use SQLite in production for a small site and I think it is totally fine, but what I did not fully appreciate is that SQLite is still a database, databases are complicated, and I do not know a lot about operating databases.

So here are a couple of small things I’ve been learning about running SQLite. This is the 4th website I’ve used SQLite for, and I think this one is harder because with the power of the Django ORM I’ve been making the database do more work than I was previously without Django.

I started by turning on WAL mode like all the blog posts said to do and hoping for the best.

ANALYZE is apparently important

Today I was running a query (using SQLite’s FTS5 for full-text search) on a table with 4000 rows and it took 5 seconds. That seemed wrong to me: computers are fast!

It turned out that what I needed to do was to run ANALYZE! Immediately the problem query went from taking 5 seconds to like 0.05 seconds (or some other number small enough that I didn’t care to investigate further). I still don’t know exactly what went wrong in the query plan, but my best guess is that it was some sort of accidentally quadratic thing.

ANALYZE generates “statistics” (I guess about the number of rows in each table? and presumably other things?) so that the query planner can make better choices.

Maybe one day I’ll learn to read a query plan.

cleaning up the database is tricky

Occasionally I’ve run into situations where I accidentally put a bunch of rows in my database that I don’t want to be there (for example completed tasks from django-tasks-db), and I want to clean them up.

What’s happened to me a few times in this case is:

  1. I run some kind of command to clean up the rows
  2. The command takes more than 5 seconds, since there are a lot of rows (though I still have some questions about why these DELETE statements are so slow honestly, maybe there’s a bunch of Python code running inside a transaction, I’m not sure)
  3. One of the other workers tries to write the database while this is happening, and times out after 5 seconds (I have a timeout of 5 seconds set)
  4. The worker crashes because it couldn’t write to the database and the VM shuts down

My approach so far has been to just do these cleanup operations in small batches so that I don’t need to do database queries that take more than 5 seconds to run. This whole experience has given me more of an appreciation for why someone might want to use a “real” database like Postgres which can have more than one writer at the same time though.

Maybe in the future I’ll just take the site down for scheduled maintenance instead when I need to do this kind of thing, but I haven’t figured out a workflow for that yet.

no notes on performance of ORM queries yet

So far I’ve been using Django’s ORM to make any query I want without paying any attention at all to query performance and it’s mostly been going okay other than the ANALYZE thing. The database is pretty small (maybe 10000 rows?) and I expect it to stay pretty small forever, so I’m hoping that that plan will keep working.

backing up sqlite

I’ve done SQLite backups a couple of ways. I don’t think I’ve actually tested restoring from my backups but I do usually try to monitor them with a dead man’s switch.

way 1: restic

sqlite3 /data/calendar.db "VACUUM INTO '/tmp/calendar.sqlite'"
gzip /tmp/calendar.sqlite

# Upload backup to S3
# Sometimes the backup gets OOM killed and so it stays locked, do an unlock
restic -r s3://s3.amazonaws.com/some_bucket/ unlock
# Do the backup & prune old backups
restic -r s3://s3.amazonaws.com/some_bucket/ backup /tmp/calendar.sqlite.gz
restic -r s3://s3.amazonaws.com/some_bucket/ snapshots
restic -r s3://s3.amazonaws.com/some_bucket/ forget -l 1 -H 6 -d 2 -w 2 -m 2 -y 2
restic -r s3://s3.amazonaws.com/some_bucket/ prune

way 2: litestream

I started trying out Litestream recently because I felt like doing incremental backups might be more efficient: my restic backups were sometimes getting OOM killed, and I was a bit tired of it. Basically I just write a config file and run:

litestream replicate -config litestream.yml

I set retention: 400h in my config file in an attempt to retain some amount of history of the database but I have no idea if it works.

I’ve been backing up to AWS, which is always a pain because it’s annoying to navigate the AWS console to generate credentials. Maybe one day I’ll move away to some other S3-compatible alternative.

you can use multiple databases

My current project only has one database, but one trick I used with Mess with DNS was to split the tables into three separate database files because I didn’t actually need my tables to be in the same db. I think it was helpful.

Mess with DNS has been running on SQLite for 4 years now (since 2022) and it’s been great, I think the move from Postgres was a great choice for that project.

that’s all!

It’s always kind of fun to see how long it takes me to learn sort of basic things about the technologies I’m using. I think I used SQLite for a web project for the first time in 2022 and I only learned that ANALYZE existed today! I imagine in a year or two I’ll be learning about some other very basic feature.

some references

Some blog posts I’ve looked at, other than the official docs:

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images Details of Martian Surface During Flyby

2 Min Read

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images Details of Martian Surface During Flyby

An overhead satellite mosaic of the Martian surface, showing numerous impact craters in a transition zone of reddish-brown and dusty blue terrain, with streaks stretching across the blue region.
PIA26749
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

Captured by the multispectral imager instrument on NASA’s Psyche mission, this is an enhanced-color mosaic created from four individual images acquired on May 15, 2026, during the spacecraft’s flyby of Mars

Psyche was traveling from right to left (northeast to southwest on Mars) during the six minutes that it took to acquire the images for this mosaic, and the pixel scale resolution varies from 381 meters per pixel on the right to 440 meters per pixel on the left. The imager used its near-infrared, green, and blue filters, which helped to reveal highly contrasting craters, ridges, wind streaks, and volcanic plains materials on the surface.

The mosaic covers part of the Iapygia region of the rugged southern highlands of Mars, from approximately 62 degrees east to 78 degrees east longitude and 4 degrees north to 14 degrees south latitude. The largest crater, just below center, is called Fournier and is about 71 miles (114 kilometers) in diameter. The linear feature running from top to bottom of the mosaic just left of center is part of a long irregular cliff (or scarp) system called Oenotria Scopuli, which is part of the circular structure of the large Isidis impact basin to the northeast of this area.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post NASA’s Psyche Mission Images Details of Martian Surface During Flyby appeared first on NASA Science.

Nature study identifies a new way to spot nuclear weapons in orbit

Russia's Kosmos-2553 spacecraft, alleged to be part of a nuclear weapons program, prior to launch. Credit: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

NEW YORK — A study published last week in Nature Astronomy has proposed a new satellite design and technique to detect thermonuclear warheads in space. Funded in part by the […]

The post Nature study identifies a new way to spot nuclear weapons in orbit appeared first on SpaceNews.

Defense Innovation Unit seeks commercial path to deliver electrical power from orbit

Star Catcher grid

DIU solicitation aims to move long-studied technology toward military use by fiscal 2030

The post Defense Innovation Unit seeks commercial path to deliver electrical power from orbit appeared first on SpaceNews.

Building the infrastructure for a shifting space economy with Massi Ladovaz

In this episode, David Ariosto speaks with SpinLaunch CEO Massi Ladovaz. They discuss what attracted Ladovaz to reimagining how to launch spacecraft, the changing needs and challenges of building constellations […]

The post Building the infrastructure for a shifting space economy with Massi Ladovaz appeared first on SpaceNews.

Trump’s pick to lead Space Force defends plan to more than double budget

Lt. Gen. Douglas Schiess, to be the next chief of space operations of the U.S. Space Force, testified July 16 before the Senate Armed Services Committee in a confirmation hearing

The post Trump’s pick to lead Space Force defends plan to more than double budget appeared first on SpaceNews.

Cataloging Growth: A Re-Evaluation of 1900–1990

From Verónica Bäcker-Peral and Benjamin Wittenbrink of MIT:

Measuring real GDP growth requires distinguishing changes in prices from changes in product quality and composition, yet systematic quality adjustment of price indexes is unavailable for much of the twentieth century. We construct a new quality-adjusted price index for U.S. consumer goods using 5.1 million product listings from Sears catalogs, 1900–1990. We use large language models to extract product information and estimate hedonic price schedules from high-dimensional text embeddings, allowing us to infer annual changes in the cost of living. The resulting cost-of-living index implies substantially lower goods inflation than conventional deflators, and consequently implies much faster real economic growth: between 1900 and 1990, real goods consumption grew by a factor of 39 using our index, compared with a factor of 10.3 using standard goods deflators. The gap between our index and canonical ones is largest before World War II, reversing the conventional view that goods consumption growth was slower before 1945 than in the post-war decades.

Here is a useful tweet storm on the paper, important work.

The post Cataloging Growth: A Re-Evaluation of 1900–1990 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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SpaceX’s only problem is finding more space to work with

Illustration of satellite coverage for telecommunications services.

SpaceX’s IPO marks the moment the space dream became a mainstream capital markets story. For decades, it has sold a vision of interplanetary civilization on behalf of the wider space […]

The post SpaceX’s only problem is finding more space to work with appeared first on SpaceNews.

Serbia signs the Artemis Accords

Serbia AA signing

Serbia is the latest nation to sign the Artemis Accords, joining the U.S.-led effort more than two years after signing on to China’s lunar base project.

The post Serbia signs the Artemis Accords appeared first on SpaceNews.

SpaceX aborts Starship Flight 13 launch attempt

Starship Flight 13 scrub

SpaceX aborted the launch of its latest Starship test flight July 16 when some of the vehicle’s engines failed to ignite.

The post SpaceX aborts Starship Flight 13 launch attempt appeared first on SpaceNews.

SpaceX launches 21 satellites for military data network

With the launch of 21 York Space Systems satellites, the Space Development Agency has now placed half of its planned Tranche 1 Transport Layer constellation in orbit

The post SpaceX launches 21 satellites for military data network  appeared first on SpaceNews.

Rocket Report: India's Vikram-1 nears debut flight; AST to become rocket company?

Welcome to Edition 9.03 of the Rocket Report! SpaceX counted down all the way to T-0 on Thursday evening in South Texas before a handful of Raptor engines decided not to light at ignition of the rocket. It is not clear whether the vehicle can be worked on at the pad, or whether Starship will need to be de-stacked before this can occur. In any case, a few days delay beats a significant issue in flight.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Vikram-1 rocket gets a launch date. The debut launch attempt by Skyroot Aerospace of its Vikram-1 rocket is now set for July 18, at 11:30 am local time in India. This will be the first time a commercial rocket developed in India attempts to reach orbit. Designed to carry small satellites weighing up to 350 kg to low-Earth orbit, Vikram-1 is targeting a 450 km orbit at a 60-degree inclination.

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Details of Alan Turing’s Voice Encryption System

Really interesting piece of cryptographic history:

In November 2023, a large cache of his wartime papers—nicknamed the “Bayley papers”—was auctioned in London for almost half a million U.S. dollars. The previously unknown cache contains many sheets in Turing’s own handwriting, telling of his top-secret “Delilah” engineering project from 1943 to 1945. Delilah was Turing’s portable voice-encryption system, named after the biblical deceiver of men. There is also material written by Bayley, often in the form of notes he took while Turing was speaking. It is thanks to Bayley that the papers survived: He kept them until he died in 2020, 66 years after Turing passed away.

Protecting Privacy in an AI Era

Daniel Solove argues in the Wall Street Journal (alternate link) that giving people control of their personal data is not an effective way to regulate privacy in this era. Instead, we need to hold companies accountable for their actions, similar to what we do with food and drug companies. Measures such as rigorous data minimization, fiduciary duties, liability for negligent or reckless technological design, liability for algorithms that cause harm, and multi-stakeholder review of technologies will be far more effective.

Paper.

Is Healthcare a Moral Marketplace?

I was delighted to be invited to discuss healthcare with Drs Wendy Dean and Matt Ramsey.  We had a discussion ranging from the health care markets described in Moral Economics, to the experiments on trust in medicine conducted by my colleague Marcella Alsan And there's a transcript for those who prefer to read than to listen.

 

53 min 35 sec

Episode Description
What does a morally defensible, healthy, legal, commercial marketplace look like, and how can we design one for healthcare? Nobel laureate Alvin Roth, Professor of Economics at Stanford University and the George Gund Professor of Economics and Business Administration Emeritus at Harvard University, joins us to about his new book, Moral Economics:  From Prostitution to Organ Sales, What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work.

 

And here's a largely A.I. generated transcript (which I've edited very lightly and reproduce here with permission): 

Ep. 079 Alvin Roth FINAL June 29 2026.mp3

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:00:00] This is a moral matters podcast. Good human healing. Well, I was a science kid in college, but I do remember taking econ 101, and I loved it because it made so much sense. But I was also really stubborn and I was not going into the family. Well, shall we say the business of business, so to speak. What about you, Matt?

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:00:32] Well, I loved economics 101. Economics 201 was my downfall. Uh, I got in way over my head in economics way too early. And that was the end of that. So beyond supply and demand, beyond macroeconomics, that was the end for me. And I too was a science kid. And, you know, economics is somewhat science based and can make sense mathematically, but there was a lot of soft, gushy stuff in economics that I couldn't really get my arms around. So it was like, I'm out. Let's get me back to the chemistry lab, please.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:01:19] Yeah. Well, I mean, today we're getting a master class in market design from a Nobel Prize winner.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:01:25] So yeah. So buckle up. Um, this is a rare privilege. Um, you know, it's I don't know that I've talked to many Nobel Prize winners in my life, and I probably would be safe to say probably it's a one and done for me. So I'm going to really relish, uh, this conversation we have tonight.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:01:47] Yeah. Well, our guest today is Alvin Roth. He's the Craig and Susan McCaw professor of economics at Stanford University and the George Gund Professor of Economics and Business Administration emeritus at Harvard University, a pioneering expert in the field of market design. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2012. His latest book is Moral Economics, and in it he asks what a morally defensible, healthy, legal commercial marketplace might look like in controversial markets such as organ sales or prostitution. But we'd like to ask, what does a morally defensible, healthy, legal commercial marketplace look like in health care? And how can we design it?

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:02:27] That is a great question. I'm Matt Ramsey.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:02:32] And I'm Wendy Dean, and this is the 43 CC podcast. Welcome to the show.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:02:41] Thank you. Happy to be here.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:02:45] All right. Can we just start with the very basics. What does moral economics mean.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:02:52] So moral economics is,  I guess, an economics that tries to understand where moral questions are important and critical and unavoidable, and where what sometimes appear to be moral questions are really just questions about what trade offs we can and must make and how we should make them.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:03:11] So how does the average Joe know when they encounter a morally healthy market? Or in a broader sense, I guess, a morally healthy economy?

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:03:23] Well, I think our intuitions about moral decisions of all sorts come to us fairly quickly. I think it's now a commonplace observation that we quickly decide what we think is right and wrong, and then we look for reasons to explain why we feel that way. So I think that's as true in  economic environments as it is in other environments.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:03:46] So you write that stories about market design often begin with failure. Failure to provide what you describe as thickness, which I love that term, by the way, to ease congestion or to make participation safe and simple.  that sounds very much like health care today.  can you talk to us a little bit about what a failing or unraveling market, as you describe it looks like, and what happens when those on the receiving end, specifically patients are unable to exercise their control in that market?

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:04:25] Okay. So that's a good question. Unraveling and control.  let me spend a moment talking about how those play out in non-health care markets.  when I speak about unraveling, I'm often talking about decisions unraveling in time, becoming earlier and earlier  than would be a really timely time to make the decisions. Because decisions take time or because some decisions have to be planned in advance. And, and therefore, people can't wait to take care of all the decisions that they have to, which will be time consuming at a time when they would like to. So just incidentally, American doctors get their first jobs through a centralized clearinghouse that I've had a hand in helping design. And that's because before there was such a clearinghouse, doctors often were  asked to say yes or no to job offers years before they graduated from medical school, before they could properly plan. And this was a burden also on the employers. They had to hire doctors before they knew what kind of doctors they would become. That's called unraveling in time.It’s one of the places where you see worries about the timeliness of decision.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:05:36] One controversial medical market right now is the controversy over medical aid in dying.  So there are now a dozen jurisdictions in the United States, and there'll be a few more  come  the fall that have legal medical aid in dying. And there are a number of countries that allow medical aid in dying, Canada being one of them. And the Canadian Supreme Court had a very interesting decision, explanation of its decision to legalize medical aid in dying in Canada. What they said is  Canadians are entitled to security in their lives, and if there's no medical aid in dying, then there may be people with terrible diseases who feel compelled to take their own life while they still can, because they won't be able to get aid if  their illness becomes unbearable. And so to prevent that, to prevent that unraveling in time, that might force people to take their own life, the Canadian Supreme Court said, we're going to authorize Canadian doctors, under some circumstances, to give aid to people who are dying so that they don't have long, lingering, painful deaths.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:06:44] That is such a fascinating topic. Medical assistance in dying is such a timely topic right now.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:06:54] Where are you located?

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:06:55] I'm in Pennsylvania. Well, we're both in Pennsylvania. Jill is in Boston.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:07:00] Okay. Well, so I'm not sure what the Pennsylvania story is, but New York will have medical aid in dying  in the fall. And I think so will Illinois. They're the latest two states. And there are some states that don't have residency requirements. And of course, there are countries that you can go to, to, to access medical aid in dying. So one of the things about bans, of course, is they they put up barriers, but they don't necessarily stop people from accessing things that they want to access.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:07:32] Yeah, exactly.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:07:33] So true. And, you know, just this is just a question that I'm going to throw out there. But, um, on the back end of it, we're offering medical assistance in dying while people are still struggling to get access to the full range of health care.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:07:50] Yes. And of course, one of the controversies about medical aid in dying is, people who are opposed to medical aid in dying laws say, some people just want to access medical aid in dying because they don't have access to medicine, to medical care. And we'd be better off working as hard as we can to give everyone good access so that they don't think of medical aid in dying as an attractive alternative. And of course, there's an association of palliative care doctors in the United States who deal with hospices, and their position is interesting. They have a policy statement that says they are studiously neutral on the question of whether medical aid in dying should be legal, but they worry about the slippery slope that might come with legal medical aid in dying. But they also acknowledge that there's covert medical aid in dying. That is, even in places where it's not legal, there is medical aid in dying because the same  pharmaceuticals, the same drugs that can ease pain can shorten life. And so they know, and the doctors I talked to know of cases where someone in great pain is given enough morphine so that they won't wake up in the morning.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:09:03] Yeah. Yeah. There's no easy answer there, which is probably why you're studying it.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:09:12] Oh, yeah.  I don't propose answers. I mean, the answers to many of these questions are above my pay grade.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:09:19] You know.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:09:20] I know you've looked at my earlier book called Who Gets What and Why, and that was sort of an optimistic book about market design. It was a book that says sometimes markets are broken and we can fix them. It was a good feeling book for an economist. And this is a less optimistic book, Moral Economics. This says there are markets that aren't working very well at all. They're broken, but it's going to be hard to fix them because we don't necessarily agree on what we want them to do. And that coming to agreement is going to be an important part of, of trying to improve the function of these markets. And it may not be easy to do.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:09:53] Yeah. Well, one of the things that you write about is that the importance of reputation and trustworthiness in health, health care markets, like in healthy markets as a whole. What happens when those elements aren't viewed as priorities, when trustworthiness and reputation take a back seat to something else?

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:10:13] Well, so one of the big points in my book that I look at in a lot of controversial markets is that markets need social support to work well, and so do bans on markets. But medical care sometimes suffers from lack of social support that it needs to work well. I have a colleague here at Stanford named Marcella Alsan, who studied the perception of American medical care among black Americans. And one of the things she finds is that everyone she talks to, whether or not they're highly educated, know about the Tuskegee experiments. They know that there were unethical experiments in which black men were left untreated for syphilis, and that that gives them some distrust of the American medical system. And she ran an experiment in a black barbershop in Oakland. Apparently, hypertension, high blood pressure is quite common among black men. And so she had an experiment in which she  came armed with a leaflet that said, if you want, I can put you in an Uber right now and take you to a nearby clinic. Where this doctor (and there would be a picture of the doctor on the leaflet) will take your blood pressure and talk to you about it and what you might do about it. And the experimental control was either the leaflet had a white doctor or a black doctor, and she followed not just how many people went to see the doctor, but often they had high blood pressure and the doctor would recommend that they do something about it. She  tracked how often they took the advice of the doctor, and it turned out that black doctors were more effective at getting young black men who had apparently very high blood pressure to do something about it.  So this question of trust doesn't isn't just a hypothetical question. It's a question of compliance. You know, someone who's giving you advice and is it advice that's good for you or good for them? And believing that it's advice that's good for you makes it more likely that that you'll follow it.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:12:16] Yeah.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:12:18] So I'm, I'm fascinated. I'm fascinated in both of your books, but about the whole concept of market design, you know, that, you know, my economics 101 in college, where it was a supply and demand was. So, you know, that was so kind of superficial. And the fact that you can actually design markets. Um, and have them work effectively is fascinating to me. Um, you know, one, one concern that you talk about in market design is objectification, you know, the fear that the act of putting a price on certain things and then buying or selling them might move them into a class of impersonal object to which they should not belong. That is, they risk losing their moral value. Uh, I guess a question very specific to health care is how can we maintain a moral value in health care in, in a, in a market that demonstrates some elements of objectification?

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:13:21] Okay, that's a complicated question, for which I bet we'd have different discussions on different parts of health care. But one place it's come up a lot for me is in organ transplantation and donation. And so,  in particular, I've been involved with kidney transplantation and how it's organized, and it's against the law almost everywhere in the world to pay a kidney donor, a living kidney donor, or the family of a deceased donor for their donation. So,  kidneys are a little special when it comes to organs because healthy people have two and can remain healthy with one. And so healthy people can donate a kidney to someone who's dying of kidney failure.  but we have 130 000 new cases of kidney failure in the United States each year. And we do fewer than 30,000 transplants each year. So most people who might be able to profit from a transplant will die without receiving one, because there's a big shortage of kidneys, we get about 27,000. About 22,000 deceased donor kidney transplants a year in the United States, and not quite 7000 living donor transplants. So a lot of the work I've been involved with has involved kidney exchange, ways to increase the chance that someone can get a compatible kidney from a living donor without involving any payment to the donor, so that just circumvents that problem.  and we've made a lot of success:  on a different kind of podcast, I could tell you about victory after victory and how we've increased the number of transplants, but it's in a war that we're losing. The incidence of kidney failure has risen faster than the number of kidney transplants.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:15:05] But so, so one thing that comes up when economists see there are not quite 100,000 people waiting for a deceased donor kidney in the United States now, and they would be more on that waiting list if, if it were more possible to, to survive the waiting list and get a kidney.  when economists see a long line of people waiting for a scarce resource, we know that prices aren't being allowed to increase the supply of the scarce resource. And indeed, That's true around the world. It's  against the law to pay a donor for a kidney. Everywhere in the world for  it's against the law to pay a living donor for a kidney. Everywhere in the world except in the Islamic Republic of Iran. And I've read some of the Shia fatwas on that. And they're interesting to read. But the concern that you raised that  by allowing people to be paid for kidneys, we might be treating people more as means than as ends, we might be commodifying them, treating them as a carrier of a kidney rather than as a person, that plays a significant role in the distaste, the repugnance of, not allowing kidney sales. Now, it's not just kidneys that  people feel that way and legislators have legislated that way. There are other substances of human origin that play important roles in medicine, and one of them is blood and blood plasma.  So ever since World War One, when  we started to have blood banks and blood transfusions, blood has played an important role in medicine.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:16:43] And increasingly now, plasma  plays a very important role. The World Health Organization  has a list of essential medicines. If you want to start a hospital anywhere in the world,  they have a list of things that you have to have in your pharmacy. And on that list are many plasma pharmaceuticals, pharmaceuticals made from human plasma, which so far still has to be donated by a person, by a living, healthy person. But many countries in the world, including  a lot of the countries in Western Europe, not all of them, have laws against paying plasma donors. And so they would have great shortages of plasma. None of the countries that that have laws against paying plasma donors are able to collect as much plasma as they need from unpaid domestic donors. But it turns out there isn't this great shortage of plasma in Europe,  Because you can buy the plasma you need from the United States. In the United States, we allow plasma donors to be paid, and we export tens of billions of dollars a year of plasma pharmaceuticals to save lives around the world. And indeed, many of the biopharma companies that collect plasma from paid donors in the United States are subsidiaries of biopharma companies in countries like Spain, where it's illegal to pay plasma donors. But I guess their feeling is it's immoral to pay for plasma. It commodifies the donor. And besides, you can buy all you need from the United States. So.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:18:12] Exactly.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:18:13] So, you know, so out of sight, out of mind is one of the ways of dealing with  moral complexities.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:18:21] I could have had 1 or 2 fellow medical students who were supplementing their income in medical school with plasma donation.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:18:29] Count a third.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:18:33] There's a recent paper by two economists about  another controversial market I talk about. They're not all medical markets. Another controversial market I talk about is payday loans. People who live paycheck to paycheck have more trouble getting loans than you and I do. And they pay higher interest rates. But  if they have regular paychecks, they can get a loan secured by their next paycheck at high interest rates. It's not a great part of the financial system at all. But someone did a study, two economists did a study that looks at the opening of plasma donation facilities, where plasma donors are paid. And they find that in regions where plasma donation becomes available, payday lending goes down.  In other words the same urge, the same need that says, you know, I, I need my car to get to work and it's just broke down and it's going to cost something to fix it. That same need could cause you to go to a payday lender and have a loan at a higher annual interest rate than your credit cards have, because these guys don't have credit cards. Instead, you could donate plasma  and save lives. So, so you know, there's something. The world is a complicated place. We might want to live in a world where no one felt a need to donate plasma for money. But, uh, just passing a law against it doesn't make the need go away. And it's, it's a pretty good thing to do. I sort of hope that people who sell their plasma are proud of it. I was a very early adopter of Covid, and when I started to get well, the local Stanford blood bank, which doesn't pay for plasma, wanted my plasma as convalescent plasma. And so I donated plasma after I recovered for a couple of months, unpaid, until they fired me when my antibody titer got too low.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:20:27] You're of no use to us anymore.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:20:29] Yeah, exactly. But I no longer donate plasma, although I still donate whole blood because in the United States we get our whole blood from unpaid donors. And so it's a good thing to do, but I don't feel any urge to donate plasma. There's plenty of plasma. I don't want to take jobs away from people.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:20:46] Who need it.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:20:47] Right. So a lot of the argument about not paying for substances of human origin, I think, is, is based on bad economics. It's that people won't want to do it anymore if, if other people are paid for it. And there's some truth in that: I don't want to donate plasma anymore, but there's no shortage of plasma because people are paid for doing it. So, I think that carefully regulated markets in which people can be paid for plasma are a good thing, because plasma saves millions of lives every year around the world.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:21:18] Yeah. So you've mentioned the term the phrase repugnant transaction a couple of times. Could you just define it for the listeners?

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:21:28] Okay, so I use that as a technical term. Repugnance, of course, is a word that has existed in English for a long time. And I started using it when I was writing about the repugnance of paying donors for kidneys, but in general, and I've now started to see it all over. There are many causes of controversy, moral controversy, moral contests that I talk about in my book, but one kind that's really interesting to me involves what I call repugnant transactions, which are transactions that some people want to engage in and other people think shouldn't be allowed, and particularly the other people who think it shouldn't be allowed feel that way because of moral or religious arguments, not because they're personally harmed by the transaction. And indeed to make it clear, I say it might even be that they can't even tell if the transaction has happened unless someone tells them. By this definition, same sex marriage is a repugnant transaction. And when I say that, I don't mean that I disapprove of it or that you should, but that some people want to marry each other and other people don't think they should be allowed. And you can't tell whether someone is married unless they tell you which they might do by wearing a wedding ring.  So it's not because of the direct personal harm the people who object to same sex marriage suffer when someone gets married.  but of course it was a giant political issue for the first part of this century.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:22:54] It became legal in the United States and maybe anywhere for the first time,  in 2004 in Massachusetts from a court decision. And it became legal in every state in the United States in 2015 with a Supreme Court decision about equal protection under the law. but it was a tough fight for, for a long time. You know, the idea of same sex marriage had  been around for decades before without making any progress. And of course, there are other controversies, many, many controversial markets in the United States get adjudicated by the Supreme Court, and some of them are medical in nature, like abortion. And so what we've seen recently is those can go both ways.  Roe v Wade had established a personal right to abortion under some circumstances for Americans that stood for 50 years. And then the Dobbs decision sent it back to the States. And in his concurring opinion to the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v Wade, Justice Thomas had said that there were other judicial decisions that he thinks are mistakes that we should reconsider, including banning. There were laws that banned selling contraceptives, for instance.  and of course, similar to the abortion laws, we've now had controversies about, uh, aid in, in reproduction, like in vitro fertilization. So there are a number of medically adjacent markets that, that are contested in this way.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:24:36] Yeah. Well, I'm, I'm going to ask you to, to come up, you know, to 50, zero zero zero feet and think about health care as a whole. Um, so for decades, healthcare has been treated like almost any other market yet it is a little bit different in some ways. It is. And I think there are some people who would argue that it is repugnant. It has repugnancy at its core, meaning that we're profiting in some places from other people's misfortune. Right. So how do we square health care decisions driven by money rather than morals? Especially when the AMA code of ethics says the practice of medicine is fundamentally a moral activity And so we're asking clinicians to behave in ways that will benefit the system, but might work against the clinicians oaths, for example. So the administrators want them to act in one way. They don't want to act in that other way. The patients don't know the difference. Maybe who's being who's being asked to work in what way would you define that as a repugnant system? And if so, how do we mitigate it?

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:25:52] Okay. So when you talk about medicine as a whole, you're talking about lots of different kinds of transactions. And as a market designer, I find myself forced to get down in the weeds and deal with details. So, so I can tell you a little bit about, you know, artificial reproductive technologies. I can tell you a little bit about abortion. I can tell you a little bit about transplantation. When you say health care as a whole,  I get a little nervous because  that's a big bundle of things. But let me start by saying that I don't think  there's much traction in the idea that medicine as a whole might be repugnant because doctors profit from people's illness any more than farmers profit from people's hunger or  roofers profit from people's desire not to be rained on. Uh, on the contrary, I think of all those people as, as helping people meet their needs, right? Doctors help you when you're not feeling well, or maybe they ideally, maybe they help you to avoid not feeling well by, by practicing preventive medicine. You know, farmers grow food, so we're not hungry. And so we don't have to grow our own food. We can be doctors. I mean, there was a lot less, uh, medical care provided for people before the invention of agriculture. Uh, so filling needs is not a wrong thing, and filling needs as a way to earn your living is often the way we fill our most basic needs. Because if you couldn't make a living as a farmer, there'd be a lot fewer farmers. If you couldn't make your living as a doctor, there'd be a lot fewer doctors.  If people who wanted to do health care, if physicians had to make their living some other way, they'd be a lot less experienced in health care.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:27:40] They'd spend their days, you know, doing, doing lawn care or whatever we made doctors do instead of being paid for health care. And they'd have a lot less experience doing knee surgeries or, diagnosing unusual illnesses. So. So I'm very glad that my medical care is provided by professionals who can devote themselves full time to medical care and who can, you know, get educated in medicine. That being said, you know, we're a rich country that doesn't have universal health insurance. So there's lots of things to worry about. And market designers worry about these things. There'd be a lot less repugnance in the world, There'd be a lot less moral contest about markets if there wasn't so much income inequality and wealth inequality. If we were all roughly as rich as each other, then  the differences in what we consumed would be just a matter of taste as opposed to what we could afford. So that's a giant problem, not just of medicine, but of global economics, right?  we're doing better and better at providing resources and making resources less scarce. And a sign of that is people are living longer than they used to and living longer, healthier lives. That's a good sign of human progress over the last 200 years and over the last hundred years, too. So some of that is medicine, some of that is public health. Some of that is good nutrition. I mean, a lot of things go into helping people live longer, healthier lives. But medicine is a significant part of it. So. So I don't think you have to feel bad about being a physician.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:29:19] Uh, yeah. Um, so I spent an awful lot of time when I was reading your two books, thinking about just that, just that question of would this, would this largely not be an issue if there were more income equality? And it was so I'm so grateful to hear you say that.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:29:40] So, um, in, in, uh, the book Moral Economics, you write about how we should think about building societies that support human welfare, balancing the rights of people to pursue their individual and mutual goals with the need to protect society's most vulnerable members from harms that may arise from markets, including black markets growing without boundaries. So let's talk a little bit about boundaries. Um, you know, what does the point of no return look like in a poorly regulated market. And you know, how soon do new markets need regulation? And who is it? You know, you've just said that regulation can occur on multiple levels from multiple entities. Like who? Who is it who decides when and how regulation happens?

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:30:34] Okay, so let's talk about the American experience with alcohol.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:30:39] Okay. So let's.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:30:42] Yeah, we can meet and have a drink later. But in the 1920s through the early 30s, we passed a constitutional amendment that made it illegal to produce or sell most alcoholic beverages, didn't make it illegal to drink them, but it made it illegal to to produce or sell them. Nevertheless, the consumption of alcohol didn't drop to nothing. On the contrary, it stayed pretty much as it had at pre-prohibition levels after an initial dip, and it gave rise to serious organised crime. People who competed for market share with machine guns. The Saint Valentine's Day massacre is a famous example. Al Capone's gang was the victim of that, incidentally, not the perpetrator, But he was a famous alcohol prohibition era gangster. Um, so in the early 1930s, we amended the Constitution again to repeal the amendment that banned the production and sale of alcohol. And so today we have legal regulated markets for alcohol. And they're regulated in lots of ways. Not every restaurant gets a liquor license. Uh, children can't buy alcohol. People under 21, not just children can't buy alcohol legally. Uh, there are different state rules in different places. I lived in a county in Illinois when I lived in Farmer City, Illinois, where, alcohol wasn't sold on Sundays, for instance.  so there are regulations. The problems of alcohol have not gone away with the legalization of alcohol.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:32:23] There's still alcoholism and there's drunk driving. There are organizations like Alcoholics Anonymous that  help people try to deal with alcohol addiction. So the problems of alcohol didn't go away, but the gangsters did. You can't buy moonshine whiskey from gangsters anymore. On the contrary, you buy it from fancy  Scottish, producers who age their whiskey in American oak.  And, you know, it's a sign of great prosperity to to be a judge of fine whisky. Uh, so, but the problems of alcohol didn't go away. But we're trying to manage them and we've been trying to manage them now for decades, and we like that better than we like the Wild West criminal market for alcohol. Now, that's the kind of market we have for opioids these days, right? There's great violence associated with the supply of, of heroin, for instance, heroin, fentanyl, I mean, all sorts of things. Fentanyl is funny, of course, because it's a prescription drug as well. I've had fentanyl, I've had too many surgeries and I've had fentanyl in many of them. Uh, you know, it comes and goes quickly. It's a good hospital kind of pharmaceutical, but it can also be mixed with heroin and, and cause people to have to be uncertain about what doses they're taking.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:33:50]  so getting your opioids from criminals on the street is much more dangerous than getting them from pharmacists, who would be responsible for what you're getting. So I think we're at a point where we have to rethink the market for heroin. and again, it's because not just that markets need social support, but bans on markets need social support. So one of the things I talk about in the in the moral economics book is why is it so easy to buy drugs but so hard to hire a hitman? you know, we have very little commercial murder in the United States. It doesn't even make it into the national crime statistics. And part of the reason is, if I suggested to you that I was looking for a hitman, you'd be surprised and horrified. And later you might decide to call the police. You know, if I pressed you to tell me where I could find a hitman in  Pennsylvania, and the police, when you call them, they would be interested. They would say, you know, when he comes to Philadelphia, tell them to go to this bar and bring $5,000 in 20s and ask for for Sam and Sam will take care of him. And indeed, the way we catch most of the people who try to hire hitmen as they end up trying to hire a policeman.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:35:06] Undercover policeman. But if I said to you, I'm coming to Pennsylvania, and I wondered if you would know where I could buy some heroin in Pennsylvania, you'd also be very surprised. But you wouldn't call the police. And you may even know where heroin is sold in Pennsylvania. Um, so we just react, you know, the ban on hitmen has much more social support from from you, from the police, from, everyone than the ban on heroin, because there are people who live in neighborhoods where heroin is sold and, and, you know, you can learn to live with it. So, coming back to heroin and to other kinds of drugs, we can't even in the US, we can't even keep drugs out of our prisons. And prisons are the places where there's the most possibility of using police and armed methods for keeping control. So the chance that we can use police and military methods to keep drugs off the street, we've pretty much convinced ourselves we can't do that. And so it might be time to start thinking, as we did at the end of prohibition, of how are we going to reduce the harm that this criminal market. We so much don't like heroin.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:36:16] We made drugs of that sort illegal to sell. And as a result, we have a market for just those drugs run by criminals. And are we happy with that? Maybe we should think about legalizing and then regulating. You know, I say in the book that having a legal market for heroin doesn't mean there'd be vending machines in elementary schools for heroin. You know, it would presumably be something more like the prescription drug market. And it might come together with diagnoses that in order to be prescribed heroin also required other kinds of treatment for your disease of addiction to heroin. And maybe we could do a better job because the violence we saw of prohibition era gangs In the 1920s, and 30s is not on a bigger scale than the violence we're seeing around the world associated with drug cartels today. So so we have a lot of trouble in the United States as a consumer of heroin and other kinds of drugs. But there's countries where drugs are produced, where the drug cartels are alternate governments. I mean, they're in military conflict with the authorities. So so there's lots of harm coming. It might be time to think about harm reduction and and at least in some dimensions, treating opioid addiction more like a medical problem than a crime.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:37:40] That drives us right back to the repugnancy discussion, though. So it's not often that we get to speak with the architects of health care's infrastructure. So as a person who directed the redesign of the national Resident Matching program's matchmaking algorithm, we have to ask you about the match program. As a practicing physician, one of the most memorable days in my life was the day I matched in orthopedics. And it is a very.

Speaker 4: [00:38:10] What year was that?

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:38:11] Oh, that was 1990. 1990. Okay.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:38:16] And you're talking about your residency or did you do a specialty?

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:38:19] I did both actually. And I, I can tell you the story about markets unraveling because we didn't have a match for fellowships for many years. And it was a complete circus.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:38:32] I remember I actually helped  that organization to get some fellowship matches.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:38:37] Yeah. So, so. You know, one of the, when we talk to folks about the residency match, we have, I mean, one, one of the things that the residency residency match has is an antitrust exemption. Um, and Until recently it's been unchallenged. And I guess a question, and because I have some very strong thoughts about this, can can something like a residency match exist without the exemption or regulation?

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:39:14] So, so I remember the circumstances in which that exemption came. It came in reconciliation, in a pension bill.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:39:26] Of course, buried deep in some other legislation.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:39:30] Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Uh, and before that, the match had operated for many years without an antitrust exemption. What now? Now, I've talked to lawyers about this, and they say it's a real antitrust exemption, but it does have an exception. What it says, well, this is not the legal reading,it  says running a match is not itself a violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act. Well, maybe maybe the Clayton Antitrust Act, I forget. But but if you can show harm to to doctors or to residents or to hospitals, you can still sue under the antitrust laws. But you have to show harm. You can't just say that it's a per se violation. Now, that's not the plain language of the of the legislation. It's my interpretation. but the reason it came about was there had been a class action, a double class action lawsuit against the match and all the medical associations, associated with it and all the hospitals that involved themselves in resident training. And when I say double class action, a class action lawsuit has a class of, of plaintiffs. And this was a class action lawsuit on behalf of all doctors who had had residencies, which is to say all doctors, but it was suing the class of all hospitals that employed residents And what that meant was  the legal defense bills for the hospitals. Every hospital had to have its own law firm. And I would meet with some of these guys in those days. And their tickers were running.  I was at Harvard and I didn't like to travel for this. So they would come to me and they would be these big groups of, of, of lawyers with their, with their meters ticking.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:41:17] So there was a lot of pressure to try to settle. And the, the class action lawsuit, which was brought by 16 law firms on behalf of, I think half a dozen named residents, they appeared to be interested in a settlement. That was what they were shooting for.  And the reason they were suing a whole class of hospitals was to make it easier to to get a settlement, to extract a settlement because the the defense costs were so high. But at the same time, that was sort of a strategic error because every senator has hospitals. So  the AMA and some of the related organizations,  were able to get legislative relief that said, you'd have to prove harm. You can't just say what the antitrust laws do, among other things, is they forbid conspiracies in restraint of trade. And the main  object of the suit was that the match itself was a conspiracy. They say, what could be more conspiratorial than than a centralized clearinghouse that, uh, you know, that tells every doctor where to go. And one of the arguments against that was what could be more conspiratorial than the New York Stock Exchange, which at every moment in the day determines the prices of all the commodities, all the all the securities that are being sold on the stock exchange. So the argument in defense was, this is a marketplace. That doesn't mean that it violates the antitrust law. But the exemption cut off this source of contention through class action lawsuits. So it's true that that one of the House committees is now thinking that that they should repeal that exemption, and maybe they will. I don't think that will necessarily interfere with the match if it doesn't lead to more extensive litigation.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:43:07] Well, I can just tell you personally, unraveling of that market will be a wild experience because I've lived through an unmatched fellowship kind of, and it was no fun. I mean, I can tell you that once the match happened, it was a big sigh of relief that we could.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:43:26] Well, so let me tell you a story about the organization of the fellowship Orthopedic surgery matches of which there are many, because orthopedic surgeons divide up the parts of the body. You know, there's hand and wrist and shoulder and elbow. And, you know, it's sort of like going into an old timey butcher and seeing the cow.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:43:48] Give me some shoulder.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:43:49] With better tools, though.

Speaker 4: [00:43:50] Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:43:52]  so that was a market that had unraveled and people were getting exploding offers as early as the second year of their five year general surgery residency. So I started to talk to orthopedic surgeons when I heard about these problems. And I would say to them, gee, can you really tell who's going to be an orthopedic surgeon at the second year of their general surgery residency? And the first reactions I got said, well, you know, that's not a problem. I mean, we can tell who's going to be a good surgeon. And then sometime later, they came back to me and they said, you know, actually there is a problem. The problem is not who's going to be a good surgeon. It's that sometimes we've hired people who, when they arrive three years later to be orthopedic surgery fellows, turn out to be assholes.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:44:43] And what they meant By that is they're disruptive in the O.R.. They're not nice to the nurses, things like that. And you couldn't detect that when they were second year surgical residents because as second year surgical residents, they were still polite to everyone, but that if you could have delayed hiring them until they had time to blossom, then you could have avoided some problems.

Speaker 4: [00:45:01] In the Or.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:45:02] Oh, the stereotype of orthopedic surgeons, my lord.

Speaker 4: [00:45:08] These were.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:45:08] Orthopedic surgeons telling.

Speaker 4: [00:45:09] Me this. Yeah, of.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:45:10] Course, of course.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:45:13] Yeah.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:45:14] So there's a problem on both sides of hiring people well before you have enough information. And that's of course each year there are more fellowship matches as,  subspecialties  that don't have matches run into the same problems  that the market ran into in the 1950s and the 1980s and the 1990s.

Matt Ramsey, MD: [00:45:39] Yeah. For sure. Well, al, thanks so much for being here. This was a wonderful conversation. Um, you know, obviously we're talking big issues and, um, you've solved a lot of issues in health care with.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:46:03] Very good. Well, I had a lot of fun writing the book. I learned a lot, and I'm glad to have had the opportunity to talk to you about it.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:46:09] Yeah. Thank you so much. I really loved reading both of the books. Not not just not just the optimistic one, but moral economics was great too.

Speaker 4: [00:46:17] Well, I'm.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:46:17] Still optimistic about market design.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:46:20] But, you know, nobody said it was going to be easy.

Speaker 4: [00:46:23] Right.

Wendy Dean, MD: [00:46:25] Right. Well thank you.

Alvin Roth, PhD: [00:46:26] Thank you.


A Phone is a Cow

Philip Auerswald’s A Phone is a Cow is three books in one, it’s a history of the mobile phone, it’s a business biography of Iqbal Quadir, who brought the cell phone to Bangladesh at at time when that seemed quixotic and doomed to fail, and it’s a theory of economic growth. It succeeds on all three levels.

…relatively few technologies have managed to reach the majority of the world’s people. Fire. Writing. The cookpot. The portable radio. These all succeeded. Yet most people in the world have never flown in an airplane. Most do not own a car or a bicycle. And, until recently, most still did not have access to a safe, sanitary toilet in their home. The list goes on.

The mobile phone reached the global majority more rapidly than any technology that had come before. How did this happen?

The title, by the way, comes from Quadir’s insight that just as Grameen Bank lent to villagers so they could purchase productive assets like a cow, Grameenphone could lend villagers the money to buy a phone—which then became a revenue-generating asset in its own right.

Addendum: Auerswald on Econ Talk with Russ Roberts.

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Transit of wonder

A large orange sun behind clouds with a small black spot, representing the transit of a planet.

Every 122 years, Venus crosses the Sun as a black and fleeting teardrop, kindling the awe of all those who dare to know

- by Ananya Palivela

Read on Aeon

Why crime will decline in (most of) Brazil

The system, introduced in 2024, uses facial recognition to spot people wanted by police on São Paulo’s streets. It issues alerts and officers are dispatched to pick them up. The system can also locate people who have been reported missing, identify stolen vehicles and provide footage to police investigations. Streamed to its control room in the city centre, information flows not just from lenses on street corners but in health centres, on buses and mounted on police motorbikes. By 2028 the number of cameras in the network is supposed to double, to 100,000.

São Paulo is one of many Brazilian cities spending big on crime-fighting technology. As in other countries, police are investing in body-worn cameras and networks of microphones that detect the sound of gunshots. What sets Brazil apart from many democracies is its enthusiasm for face-spotting tech. Researchers for O Panóptico, a watchdog, count 560 active facial-recognition projects in more than 20 Brazilian states. These include police-run initiatives but also experiments in schools, for example, where cameras are increasingly being used to take attendance. They gaze upon some 99m people, more than 47% of Brazil’s population.

Here is more from The Economist.

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The future belongs to AI maniacs

That is the theme of my latest Free Press column, excerpt:

An AI maniac is someone who is obsessed with working with the latest AI models. They try out new models as soon as they can, they spend hours and hours trying to master them, and they use them to regulate both their workflows and their personal lives. I know one person who has his AI agent text him if he is not drinking enough water, for which he’s placed cameras around his house. One online anecdote tells of a man who canceled a date to spend more time playing around with Claude Fable 5 after Anthropic (where I am a member of the economic advisory board) extended the model’s availability for a few days.

Many AI maniacs are using AI tools to start companies of smaller size, and thus of smaller expense, than ever before. For those companies, the humans must set in motion and then monitor a large number of AI tools and agents. Those individuals then stand to reap outsize profits as their companies grow and succeed. Stripe, the payments company, recently issued customer data showing that the number of single-person companies earning $10 million or more has doubled in the past two years. There is no firm estimate how much of that improvement is due to AI, but it stands to reason that AI is a main driver of the trend…

Anecdotally, I observe that AI maniacs tend to be young, as with participants in so many other cultural trends. They tend to lack standard manners and graces, as they just want to “get right to it.” They are able to imagine a future that is very different from our present. Many of them also are kind, as they see the potential for new AI services, in areas such as biomedicine, to help other people. Their obsessiveness is a small price to pay for all of those virtues, and it is usually part of their charm and vibe.

The AI maniacs also are skeptical of credentials, as they should be. If you wish to learn how to manipulate AI tools, Harvard and Yale are not the places to go. You need to teach yourself, with assistance from other AI maniacs and also with help from the AI tools themselves. There are some AI maniacs in the Ivy League, but too often those individuals have invested their energies into other, more established ways to succeed.

I also believe that immigrants are especially likely to be AI maniacs. Immigrants have fewer channels to rise through credentials, family connections, and establishment modes of thinking and doing. They are more willing to try something new, they tend to be younger than average, and, because they were willing to switch countries, they tend to have higher levels of energy, courage, and ambition.

Worth a ponder.

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Louie Mantia: ‘The Shape of Apps’

Louie Mantia, with a thoughtful essay on app icon design and the squircle-jail controversy on the Parakeet blog:

It’s worth noting that some of the platform’s best icons look worse, while some of the platform’s worst icons look better.

Ultimately this is what I object to with the squircle mandate. It favors the bottom of the heap by restricting the top. It makes bad icons mediocre but pushes great icons toward mediocrity too. That’s not The Macintosh Way.

Masking all of these app icons to a squircle, and even applying Liquid Glass effects to them, aims to solve this problem. And this follows the same principle of iOS 7, which is to make it easier for all apps to fit in on the platform, especially apps built by designers and developers who aren’t familiar with how to make an icon that looks great next to first-party icons.

Just so I’m clear about my preference, I would love if Apple provided a way for designers to poke outside that squircle boundary. Some of my favorite app icons did that. But also some of my least-favorite app icons ignored this shape entirely, when it was used for every system icon in the last five years. Whenever those apps showed up in my Dock, it was like a stain on my shirt I couldn’t get out.

Despite the genuine loss associated with the squircle restriction, there’s more than one way to design with it.

What a wonderful piece, and of course, it’s replete with example icons. It’s a compelling defense of the direction Apple has taken Mac app icon design.

 ★ 

OpenAI Releases Codex Micro, a Stupid $230 Hardware Keypad

Remember back in March when then-co-CEO Fidji Simo announced to the company that “We cannot miss this moment because we are distracted by side quests”? And then weeks later they spent “low hundreds of millions” to purchase the TBPN YouTube show? In their continuing effort to focus on core product, they’re now selling a $230 hardware keypad ostensibly for working with Codex, which is no longer an app but just a tab in their craptacular super app.

Quinn Nelson:

No way, that’s crazy. I’ve just been using the keyboard and trackpad that came on my laptop for free like a stupid idiot.

 ★ 

European Commission Adds Exemptions for Watches and Earbuds to Portable Battery Removal Rules

The European Commission:

The European Commission adopted a delegated act today (14 July) introducing new rules that exempt additional products from EU requirements on the removability and replaceability of portable batteries.

Under the EU’s Batteries Regulation, portable batteries in products sold in the EU must generally be removable and replaceable by consumers. This helps extend products’ lifetime by allowing battery replacements and supports recycling by making it easier to collect used batteries. [...]

The Commission is now adding six new product categories to the existing list of exemptions. This includes wearable devices such as smartwatches and fitness trackers, electric toys, and products within the scope of the ATEX Directive (equipment used in explosive atmospheres such as explosion-proof motors, sensors, pumps or forklift trucks).

See, exemptions aren’t hard, especially to stupid regulations.

 ★ 

Quiche Browser Now Defaults to No-AI Web Search Results

Quiche Industries (Greg de J.):

Starting today, Quiche Browser disables AI overviews in search results by default, out of the box.

Compare how much space and time they waste. I love the web too much to let that nonsense bury links to real websites made by humans.

This is my modest contribution to the fight against the dead internet theory. Why no other browser does that is beyond me.

To elaborate a bit:

• It simply opens search results in the AI-free versions of Google, DuckDuckGo, Bing, and Brave, whenever they’re selected as the default search engine. • No content blocker involved. Search results are served as-is. • AI features can be turned back on in Settings → Search.

I wrote about Quiche Browser a few months ago, praising it for, amongst numerous other features and aspects, its built-in JavaScript toggle. This is another killer feature. Traditional no-AI web search is a splendid default. Making it an option to enable if that’s what you want is the right way to do this.

 ★ 

Dithering: ‘Apple Sues OpenAI’

Cover art for Dithering in July 2026. Two young women jumping and frolicking in the summer.

Tuesday’s episode of Dithering was a good one, especially for the DF audience, so we’ve moved it outside the paywall and made it free-to-listen on the web. (We don’t (yet?) have an RSS feed that you can put in your podcast player for these occasional free episodes, alas.) I have a slightly different take on Apple’s lawsuit against OpenAI than I’ve seen expressed elsewhere.

If you don’t subscribe to Dithering, you probably should. Two episodes per week, 15 minutes per episode. Not a minute less, not a minute more. $7/month or $70/year — or, get it included with the Stratechery Plus bundle.

 ★ 

OpenAI Takes a Second Crack at a Response to Apple’s Trade Secret Theft Lawsuit

OpenAI, in a statement to Bloomberg this week:

“While we take these allegations seriously, we’re not aware of any evidence that this complaint has merit. We believe in fair competition and allowing people the freedom to work wherever they choose, and we’re focused on building innovative technology that empowers people everywhere.”

“We’re not aware of any evidence that this complaint has merit” is very different from, say, “This complaint has no merit.” Again, a curious response.

 ★ 

Lawyer for Apple Mixed Up Two OpenAI Employees’ Names, Sent One Email to the Wrong Guy, Back in February

David Ingram, reporting for NBC News (which recently added a paywall without gift links, alas):

Apple alleged in a lawsuit last week that OpenAI “never responded” to its concerns this year about what Apple believed was trade secret theft. But emails reviewed by NBC News show that’s not the full story: OpenAI did respond in February to Apple’s initial outreach. The communications became bogged down and, according to OpenAI, abruptly stopped after an outside attorney representing Apple mixed up the names and email addresses of two OpenAI employees who had the last names Wang and Chang.

The emails show that Gabriel Gross, a lawyer for Apple with the law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges, intended to email an OpenAI employee with the last name Wang but instead emailed a different employee with the last name Chang and confused their interactions. Gross apologized a day later for his mistake, but the interaction appeared to upset OpenAI’s general counsel, who asked Apple to remove the outside counsel from the matter. Apple declined. [...]

By the next morning, a Tuesday, Gross had realized his error and wrote a third email to Chang. He said he had intended to send the second email to the former Apple employee who had gone to work at OpenAI.

“After we had emailed Mr. Wang yesterday about retaining Apple information, he promptly called me and offered to cooperate with Apple in resolving any issues. I then intended to email him again, but accidentally replied to my email chain with you instead. I apologize for the confusion that likely caused,” Gross wrote.

Based on that email, Chang believed the issue had been resolved and didn’t respond, according to Pusateri, the OpenAI spokesperson.

It’s slightly embarrassing to conflate two rhyming surnames and mistakenly send an email intended for one person to the other, but I don’t see how this is a big deal. And I definitely don’t see how it refutes Apple’s claim that OpenAI didn’t respond to Apple’s February letter laying out their initial accusations. The back and forth seems to have gone like this, paraphrasing:

Apple lawyer: Here’s a letter and three exhibits where we lay out our claims of trade secret malfeasance at OpenAI.

Apple lawyer, to the wrong person: Thanks for the phone call.

OpenAI lawyer, who had not yet responded: WTF? I never called this guy.

Apple lawyer: Sorry, that second email wasn’t for you, I made a mistake.

And then at that point, we’re to believe that the OpenAI lawyer presumed the entire matter was settled? That makes no sense. If this is OpenAI’s defense they’re in bigger trouble than I thought. And why did NBC News think this was exculpatory in any way?

 ★ 

A Must Read and Truly Horrifying Story

The AP has just posted a detailed investigation into the background of David Brouillette, the recently hired ICE agent who shot and killed Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Maine. It’s genuinely horrifying on more levels than are easy to describe. Brouillette was hired during ICE’s recent hiring spree, as the agency attempted to rapidly staff up to manage a program of mass deportation. Brouillette has a long history of severe mental illness, a lengthy history of violence against at least two wives as well as his children, stalking, a seemingly endless list of restraining orders, violent threats against other family members and more.

According to one relative, Brouillette was diagnosed with severe bipolar disorder as a child as well as attention deficit disorder, twice tried to commit suicide at age 12 and was hospitalized multiple times. These early issues appear to have been compounded by service in the military and deployments to Afghanistan which left him with an increased propensity to violence as well as PTSD. A relative told the AP, “They took someone who was extremely mentally ill and turned him into a killing machine.” (An additional, horrifying detail: Brouillette was initially rejected by the military because of his mental health history. “But recruiters encouraged him to go off his medications for a year and reapply, which he did,” and he was then enlisted.) If all this weren’t enough, in 2021 he was broke and in some kind of firefighter training program when he was hit in the head by a steal beam and suffered a serious concussion and some sort of permanent brain damage, “with symptoms including impaired memory, cognitive deficits, headaches, vertigo and light sensitivity.”

Crazy as it may sound, this is only some of what is revealed in this article. Brouillette sounds like a deeply disturbed and dangerous person. The one part of the story that paints Brouillette in a slightly sympathetic light is that he’s clearly been afflicted with serious mental illness from a young age. Some of the mental instability and propensity to violence are due to organic conditions he is afflicted with and for which he is in some sense not at fault. Obviously that gets into very basic conditions about free will, moral responsibility and all the rest. And for the purposes of this discussion, these are reasons he never should have been hired for any law enforcement role, never should have been allowed to own firearms and really never should have been allowed to enter the military. It certainly isn’t an excuse for chronic violence against family members. That detail that he was rejected by the military but then told — someone with severe bipolar disorder with a lengthy history of hospitalizations — to go off his medications and try again in a year just took my breath away.

We knew it would be bad when an agency already known as being the repository of people who couldn’t make the cut in other federal law enforcement agencies went on a breakneck hiring spree in what is basically a near full-employment economy. It was apparently even worse than we could have imagined.

Trump’s Big Speech

The big announcement of a “prime-time,” “Oval Office” “address” was typical Trump, encouraging Americans to live in his world. In the end, none of what he said was new. He did make the ill-founded claims about non-citizens on voter rolls, described in that “draft press release” which was covered by Politico and which Josh noted below. He also said some stuff about China acquiring voter files that we’ve known for years. He did not even go so far as to baselessly allege votes were changed, or that the election was otherwise stolen, as so many predicted he would. He of course concluded with a demand that the Senate pass the SAVE America Act.

We’ll look through the documents his government released and share any interesting or amusing details. More soon.

How Politico’s Negligence and Ignorance Helped Float Another DHS Lie

Voting rights, voter intimidation and the politics of voting have been central themes of TPM reporting going back more than 25 years. Over a quarter century you develop a lot of institutional knowledge. Today we’re seeing some of the most egregious journalistic negligence, sloppiness and ignorance helping propel forward the Trump White House’s assault on the integrity of the 2026 midterms. The piece I want to point you to this evening is Politico’s claim that DHS found “thousands of non-citizens on voter rolls in California and three other states.”

This claim is almost certainly false for reasons I’ll explain. I want to briefly summarize the multiple levels of journalistic negligence in Politico’s reporting.

Versions of this claim have been made repeatedly by various right-wing groups and sometimes government agencies. In every case the original claims fall apart on closer scrutiny. In most cases they involve crudely cross-referenced databases in which similar names lead to misidentified individuals, or former non-citizens are listed on old databases who have subsequently been naturalized. In some cases, it’s sloppiness. In other cases, it’s malicious disregard designed to generate false claims.

The key point is that there’s a long history of these claims and an equally long history of these claims falling apart in the face of the most basic scrutiny. Indeed, there have been repeated instances of detailed audits in red states, run by marquee Republican elected officials, who haven’t been able to come up with more than a handful of non-citizens on voting rolls. It’s even more rare that any of them actually vote. (That’s important because there are various ways non-citizens can end up on voter rolls through things like motor voter auto-enrollment. And being on a voter roll doesn’t mean anyone actually voted.) If you know anything about this topic you know these claims always fall apart.

The Politico article notes that this is what DHS says. They don’t independently vouch for the claim. But I was surprised that they made no note of the history I explain above. Indeed, they don’t make the most cursory effort to examine the evidence. Indeed, the DHS claim of hundreds of thousands of non-citizens on voter rolls is based on the claim being made in “a draft press release viewed Thursday by POLITICO.”

In other words, DHS managed to get these headlines simply by stating the claim in a press release they didn’t even release! A press non-release, you might say.

In addition to all of this it’s fair to say that the Trump DHS and the Trump White House has a record of false claims on this topic. So on top of all I’ve noted above it’s not like you have a source that has credibility on this question.

This seems sloppy, negligent and more than a little sleazy, even for Politico. So I checked out the bios of the two bylined reporters, John Sakellariadis and Maggie Miller. Based on their bios, neither has any reporting background in voting rights, voting security or any of the complicated and fetid politics of voting mechanics. They both specialize in cybersecurity reporting and secondarily intelligence reporting. Those are important topics of course. But having zero background on the issue in question is how you end up with this kind of egregiously negligent reporting.

Where Your Dollars Go

I hope you’ve gotten a chance to read Josh Kovensky’s exclusive from yesterday. The guy DOJ has assigned to lead the task force targeting left-wing organizations/”antifa” in the U.S. was himself one of the January 6th boys. Amazing. (Of course, MAGA claims Jan. 6 was an antifa false-flag operation so perhaps prosecutor Brian W. Lynch is actually antifa? Which would be weird. But I jest…) We got a lead on this exclusive because of another exclusive Josh reported at the end of last month revealing the existence of the task force itself.

Investigative work like this is basically never economic. You sink way more hours into the work than the publication of the story can ever reap in direct terms. That’s where your dollars come in, where the TPM Journalism Fund comes in. These are the critical exclusives, revealing the details of the Trump White House’s crackdown on civic freedoms in the USA, that your contributions make possible. Want to get in on the action? We need your help in this year’s drive. Just click right here to contribute any dollar amount and help us get toward our goal of raising $500,000. This is what your dollars make possible. We appreciate your support so much.

A Tide-Fueled Trove of Biodiversity in Guinea-Bissau

A satellite image shows a cluster of green islands surrounded by beige sand flats and networks of channels full of dark blue water.
Relatively low tidal waters expose sandflats and mudflats in the Bijagós Archipelago of Guinea-Bissau in this image acquired on November 28, 2025, with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8. These coastal landforms support an array of invertebrates, making the archipelago a popular stopover for migratory shorebirds.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Twice each day, tides ebb and flow through a maze of sandy channels, mudflats, and mangrove forests that flank the 88 islands and islets of Guinea-Bissau’s Bijagós Archipelago (Arquipélago dos Bijagós in Portuguese). Seen from above, the process leads to stark changes to the landscape: around low tide, intertidal mudflats and sandflats emerge from the sea, causing islands to grow significantly before shrinking again hours later.

The perpetual rhythm of the tides sustains outpourings of marine life in an archipelago that, as of 2025, was inscribed as a UNESCO World Heritage site. The site protects the only active deltaic archipelago on Africa’s Atlantic coast, a place where tides, river sediments, coastal upwelling, and coastal currents come together to shape unusually productive and biodiverse island ecosystems.  

UNESCO estimates that the islands support some 870,000 migratory shorebirds, making this one of the most important feeding areas for birds in West Africa along the East Atlantic Flyway. Hundreds of species of birds dine on a potpourri of marine worms, crustaceans, mollusks, and small fish found on mudflats exposed by low tides. During high tides, manatees, dolphins, and schools of fish move closer to the islands, pushing deeper into the mangrove forests that ring them, and tens of thousands of sea turtles swim inland to sandy beaches as they hunt for nesting sites.

A huge population of green sea turtles nests on the tiny island of Poilão, part of the João Vieira and Poilão Marine National Park. After hatching, young turtles make perilous nighttime dashes to the water, often pursued by crabs, lizards, and birds. Once they reach the water, baby sea turtles face an array of predators, including jacks, barracudas, groupers, and snappers that patrol shallow waters as well as tuna, mackerel, sharks, and rays in deeper waters. According to some estimates, less than 1 percent of green sea turtle hatchlings survive to adulthood. 

A 2025 analysis of the region’s tides explored why the archipelago has some of the largest tidal ranges in West Africa. The researchers concluded that the region’s wide, shallow shelf and the estuary’s geometry combine to create a tidal range of up to 7 meters (23 feet), compared to about 1 meter (3 feet) in many other parts of the West African coast. The scientists used altimetry data from the NASA/CNES TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2 satellites to help validate their findings. 

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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A Different Set of Priorities

July 15, 2026

Exactly five years ago, on July 15, 2021, I wrote:

“Today Americans began to see the concrete effects of the American Rescue Plan show up in their bank accounts, as the expanded child tax credit goes into effect for one year. Through this program, the Child Tax Credit increased to $3,000 per child aged 6 to 17 and $3,600 per child under 6. All working families will get the full credit if they make up to $150,000 for a couple or $112,500 for a family with a single parent. The government sent payments for almost 60 million children on Thursday, totaling $15 billion.

“This is a really big deal. In America, one in seven children lives in poverty. This measure is expected to cut that poverty nearly in half. Studies suggest that addressing childhood poverty continues to pay off over time, as it helps adults achieve higher levels of mobility.”

The American Rescue Plan, passed in March 2021, was an early achievement of the Biden presidency, becoming a signature law as every Republican voted against it. A year later, researchers at the Brookings Institute found that the temporary expansion of the child tax credit lifted 3.7 million children out of poverty before it expired on December 31, 2021.

Family members did not stop working, as critics said they would. Instead, they used the money to cover routine expenses, decreasing their reliance on credit cards; had better nutrition; and made long-term investments in education for both children and parents.

Now, five years later, the results of the Republicans’ signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passed without a single Democratic vote and signed into law last July, are revealing a very different set of priorities.

The OBBBA extended or expanded more than $4.5 trillion in tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations, while cutting more than $1 trillion from social welfare programs. It did increase the child tax credit, but less than it would have if Congress had just adjusted the credit based on inflation since it had set the amount in 2017. And, according to the nonprofit, nonpartisan Institute of Tax and Economic Policy, the benefits from the OBBBA measure went mostly to the richest fifth of Americans, dropping essentially to zero by the time they got to the poorest fifth.

The measure cut $187 billion in federal funding from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and on Monday, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reported that between the passage of the OBBBA in July 2025 and March 2026—the last month for which there is data from all states—more than 4 million people lost access to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. At least a quarter of those people are children. Those losses will mount in 2027—after the midterm elections—when states will have to assume much more of the costs of the program.

At the center of the difference between the Democrats’ signature bill and the Republicans’ is how the representatives of those parties see the purpose of the American government. Should it be used for the good of the American people, or to concentrate wealth and power among a few?

On July 9, Carol Leonnig and Ken Dilanian of MS NOW reported that Trump’s appointees in the Department of Justice are overruling the career attorneys in the antitrust division who have called for reviews of how corporate mergers and acquisitions might lead to price gouging for consumers and taxpayers. Trump-appointed officials are pushing ahead without reviews designed to protect the American people from monopoly power and, in what former assistant attorney general Bill Baer called “unilateral surrender,” are not pursuing lawsuits to enforce antitrust laws.

“Consumers are getting really screwed by all of this,” a source told Leonnig and Dilanian. “We’re talking 10 years of consumer harm that can’t be undone.”

On Friday, Trump called a select group of Republicans who sit on the House Budget Committee to Camp David to put together a funding package, primarily for military funding, that they can get past Congress through budget reconciliation, a process that will not need any Democratic votes. Even the invitation to Camp David was controversial, though: Trump extended invitations to members of the far-right Freedom Caucus, but not to the more moderate Republicans on the committee. Invitations were secret, and members’ phones were confiscated at Camp David.

Budget Committee member Erin Houchin (R-IN) told Jake Sherman of PunchBowl News that she was urging committee members to vote no on the package.

Today House Republicans released a $95 billion budget framework to provide another $73 billion for additional military funding for the war on Iran, a $12 billion bailout for farmers hurt by Trump’s tariff wars, and $10 billion to enact aspects of the SAVE America measure Trump has been unable to convince Congress to pass.

Money for farmers was part of a sweetener to try to get Democrats on board with the measure, but it does not appear to be enough to get them to agree to fund an unpopular war and voter suppression. Representative Brendan Boyle (D-PA), the top-ranking Democrat on the House Budget Committee, told Kevin Freking and Lisa Mascaro of the Federal News Network, “I’m going to fight like hell to make sure taxpayer dollars are being used to lower costs and make life better for American families, not to bankroll Trump’s giveaways to billionaires and endless wars overseas.”

“This ‘America Last’ budget would add tens of billions more to the national debt to fund the most unpopular war in American history,” Boyle said.

Catie Edmondson of the New York Times noted that spending requests are usually dealt with through the bipartisan appropriations process, but Republicans are, once again, trying to maneuver around the Democrats to fund priorities the Democrats reject: an immigration enforcement surge that has led to two deaths at the hands of ICE agents in the past week, and the war in Iran.

Even Republicans don’t appear to want to throw more money at the Iran War before the midterms, especially as the Pentagon has been opaque about the costs of the war and the White House has refused to confer with Congress about it. They also don’t want to fund the unpopular voter suppression measure Trump wants, as prices for everyday Americans at the gas pump and grocery store are noticeably higher than they were a few months ago.

Representative Warren Davidson (R-OH) wrote on social media that the Republicans’ budget plan was “DOA,” or “dead on arrival.”

The deaths six days apart of two immigrants, neither one of whom was the intended target of the operation during which they were shot and killed, has rekindled the unpopularity of the administration’s crackdown on undocumented immigrants. As protest broke out in the wake of the shooting death of Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Biddeford, Maine, yesterday, Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), called for Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin to “cease all non-urgent vehicle stops.”

Collins, who is running for reelection, is the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and was a key vote in the June measure that provided an additional $70 billion for immigration enforcement through 2029. As Margy O’Herron of the Brennan Center noted, $70 billion “is more than the budgets for all other federal law enforcement agencies combined, including the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Administration, and the U.S. Marshals Service.”

ICE issued a memo yesterday ordering agents to prioritize tactics other than traffic stops, prompting praise from Collins.

But at 6:45 this morning, Trump insisted—incorrectly—that the people ICE is rounding up are “Criminals, and we have to get them out. In order to do this, we must be strong, tough, and smart, and we CANNOT give up one of I.C.E.’s most important and effective Crime Fighting tools, THE TRAFFIC STOP! Once we do, we are playing right into the criminal’s hands. The Radical Left Dumocrats would like to see this done, but it won’t happen on my watch. I.C.E., be judicious, fair and smart, and go back and do your very important job. Keep those Crime Stat Records coming! Remember, you are loved and respected in America.”

The Iran War is also back on the front burner.

On Monday, Trump announced he was reimposing a blockade on Iran and that the U.S. would become the “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT”; yesterday he reversed course, claiming that Gulf allies told him they would rather invest directly in the U.S. than pay tolls.

Last night, Barak Ravid of Axios, who often has inside information from the White House, reported that Trump yesterday held a meeting in the Situation Room with his top national security team to discuss “new plans for devastating strikes” against Iran. Those in the room included Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe, White House special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and other senior officials, Ravid reported.

Before the meeting, Trump told the Fox News Channel that after the “hard” strikes this week, “[n]ext week, it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges. We’re gonna knock out all their power plants. We’re gonna knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.”

Attacks on civilian infrastructure are usually illegal under international law.

Nate Swanson, a former member of Trump’s negotiating team, told foreign policy specialist Laura Rozen of Diplomatic that Trump’s escalation was probably a ploy to kick-start further negotiations. “I think it is a very risky and low probability gamble, but nothing else makes sense…. I don’t see a feasible pathway towards military victory, nor do I believe that we can [militarily] open the Strait of Hormuz against Iran’s wishes.”

The more things change, the more they stay the same. When I wrote about the importance of the American Rescue Plan five years ago, I ended my discussion of it with the observation that “this huge achievement of the Biden presidency—every single Republican voted against it—has taken a backseat in the news to two blockbuster stories about the former president.”

Notes:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-impacts-of-the-2021-expanded-child-tax-credit-on-family-employment-nutrition-and-financial-well-being/

https://itep.org/child-tax-credit-2026-obbba-trump-taxes/

https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snap-tracker-people-are-losing-food-assistance-as-the-republican-megabill

https://www.ms.now/news/trump-appointees-are-overruling-doj-lawyers-scrutinizing-corporate-mergers

https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/trumps-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-explained/

Virginia Grace McKinnon, “Secret Camp David Summit Launches GOP’s Plan for Reconciliation 3.0,” Daily Signal, July 13, 2026.

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/07/15/congress/house-gop-leaders-release-budget-framework-for-95b-party-line-package-00998589

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/congress/2026/07/house-republicans-unveil-95-billion-plan-for-the-iran-war-farm-aid-and-elections/

https://www.wmtw.com/article/susan-collins-joins-senate-republicans-in-approving-70-billion-for-immigration-enforcement/71503891

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/us/politics/house-republicans-budget.html

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/ice-and-customs-and-border-protection-budgets-exceed-200-billion

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/us/ice-agents-traffic-stops.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/15/trump-ice-traffic-stops-shootings/90926660007/

https://www.wjcl.com/article/trump-reverses-strait-of-hormuz-toll-proposal/71942067

https://www.axios.com/2026/07/15/trump-situation-room-iran-bombing

Diplomatic, by Laura Rozen
Why is Trump resuming war on Iran?
Why has President Trump chosen full-fledged escalation to respond to a few Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, rather than try to recover the 60-day ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) reached in June…
Read more

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/july-15-2021

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Marco Carralero for School Board? Is this a joke?

For the most part, I’ve enjoyed running this website.

I’ve met some fascinating people, I’ve learned a ton about local politics, I’ve come to see that many fine people (of all political stripes) aspire to help their communities.

Truly, it’s been a net positive.

However …

There are also times when this experience causes me to long for a heavy rock to take me out. To long for a black darkness to wipe out to earth. To long for the ghost of Dana Plato to come down from her cloud and slaughter us with a sword of collective terror.

Today is one of those days.

•••

It has been brought to my attention that we have yet another entrant into the upcoming race to land a (coveted?) spot on the Capo Unified School District board. The man who has decided to run for the trustee area 4 slot (which covers portions of Laguna Niguel and Dana Point) is Marco Carralero, and he drives a neon-orange Tesla Cybertruck. And if you’re thinking, “That’s impossible. What type of Alabama dill weed would drive a neon-orange Tesla Cybertruck?”—well, the answer is the Marco Carralero species of Alabama dill weed. And here’s his truck …

For what it’s worth Daily Nouri is a company Marco started with his wife. It peddles probiotics and such, with an emphasis on gut health. And while probiotics are not my thing, and companies like Daily Nouri give me the willies (Science? What science …), I suppose I’ve got no beef with gut health. I have a gut. I like it being healthy.

So … sell all the pills and tabs and secret sauces you like, kiddies.

Sell what you like.

That said, Marco Carralero shouldn’t step within two inches of the school board. First, because he not only appears to have zero background in education, but—based on a thin bio—seems to be of a certain species where public education is frowned upon. Especially the type with books. And, um, reading. And teachers who don’t spew Reagan and Biblical quotes. Once upon a time, Marco was a Claremont Institute fellow—meaning he was paid to learn at an organization that (though technically devoted to the Constitution and rule of law) has fully thrown itself at the feet and mercy of MAGA and Donald Trump. Claremont now seems to exist to deconstruct the ideas of liberal democracy, and make our country as insufferably MAGA as possible.

But, wait. I’m babbling.

Some things about Marco …

• Marco was a key plaintiff in a lawsuit to lower gun restrictions in California. In particular, he fought to be able to bring his gun into churches and hospitals. I’m not entirely sure why a dude living in Orange County needs reduced firearm restrictions inside churches and hospitals, but maybe he’s worried about someone stealing his neon-orange Tesla Cybertruck.

Also, in the spirit of “The company you keep,” here’s a list of Marco’s co-plaintiffs: Garrison Ham, Orange County Gun Owners PCA, San Diego County Gun Owners PAC, California Gun Rights Foundation, and Firearms Policy Coalition Inc.

When this campaign heats up, someone needs to ask Marco how he feels about firearms on school property.

Someone has to ask him.

Caroline Carralero, Marco’s wife/business partner/co-owner of the neon-orange Tesla Cybertruck, has appeared on Fox News to offer up her anti-vaccination views, and on Newsmax to praise a man who appears to be her lord and savior—Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

And she doesn’t just like RFK, Jr. She loves him. Looooooooves him. Which, I have to guess, means Marco looooooooves him, too. Which is terrifying. Because RFK, Jr. is a motherfucking nut.

But, again, she loves him like she loves the neon-orange Tesla Cybertruck.

Wait. Here’s the wildest part about Marco’s wife.

The wildest.

When one visits her LinkedIn page, they find this under education …

Translation: After being home schooled by her mother, she dropped out of college, then received a fellowship:

A. From one of the most evil and ruinous men in modern world history.

B. That is given only to people who drop out of college in order to seek their own truths. I’m not making that shit up. The wife of a new school board candidate bypassed a USD degree to accept money from a ruinous, poisonous figure.

[And now she’s telling people how to stay healthy. With the science she learned … somewhere.]

Also, girl—WTF?

• Marco is a mystery. Truly, a mystery in an age when few people are mysteries. He has no LinedIn presence. A private IG page. We knew he attended high school in Hungary …

… know he participates in the Citizens Academy. He doesn’t have a kid in Capo Unified schools, making his run extra weird and bewildering. I’ve never seen him at a meeting, and no one I’ve spoken with recalls him in attendance.

Worst of all, because 2 percent of citizens pay close attention to these elections, he’ll have a shot at defeating Dr. Gary Pritchard, a veteran board member and a reasoned, decent, intelligent man who lives and dies with a genuine love for public education.

Here’s a past candidate statement from Pritchard, who worked as a college dean (and doesn’t own a neon-orange Tesla Cybertruck) …

•••

Seriously, we—as a community—have a decision to make.

Decisions.

Namely, are we giving up on normalcy and reason? Are we setting aside experience, qualifications, educational background, and replacing them with snappy IG posts and neon vehicles and wacky nuts who didn’t need formal education … because they learned from influencers and truth-seeking conferences?

Have we reached the point where nothing (literally) nothing matters, besides the glow from our phone as a Kardashian entertains us by eating three pickles in one bite? Are we lost, with no return?

And, along those lines, are we willing to hand our kids’ educations over to circus freaks like Marco Carralero?

Is this where we are?

Politics Chat, July 16, 2026

SpaceX scrubs Starship launch after some of its engines didn't start

SpaceX called off a test flight of its powerful Starship rocket and Super Heavy booster as the countdown clock reached zero Thursday at the company's spaceport in South Texas.

The launch team at Starbase, Texas, just north of the US-Mexico border, aimed to launch the more than 400-foot-tall rocket at 5:45 pm local time (6:45 pm EDT; 22:45 UTC). The countdown proceeded smoothly throughout the day, culminating in the loading of more than 11.5 million pounds of liquid methane and liquid oxygen into the two-stage rocket.

But the computers controlling the countdown called an abort during the Super Heavy booster's engine startup sequence. SpaceX scrubbed the launch attempt, and engineers began preparations to drain the rocket's propellant tanks. Officials did not immediately announce when they plan to try to launch again.

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Could China and Russia really destroy Starlink? Only with a boomerang.

One week ago, three widely respected European news outlets published the results of an investigation into what they described as a "joint plan" by China and Russia to "defeat Elon Musk's Starlink."

The story was the product of a long-running inquiry by The Insider, Der Spiegel, and Le Monde. Reporters at those publications said they reviewed a cache of documents detailing growing military cooperation between China and Russia. The documents covered discussions between the nuclear powers on integrated air and missile defense systems, autonomous "swarm" loitering munitions, next-generation armored vehicles, and military aviation, the report said.

According to the papers, the investigation found evidence of a partnership between China and Russia in the field of space weapons far deeper than either country has acknowledged. One particular focus for China and Russia has been developing strategies to counter SpaceX's Starlink satellite broadband network.

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How to shrink the Fed’s $7trn balance-sheet

Kevin Warsh will struggle to reverse the effects of bond-buying

Can Kevin Warsh’s Fed force 5 reimagine monetary policymaking?

The new chairman enlists heavy-hitters to fight a handful of gnarly problems

Thursday 16 July 1663

Up and dispatched things into the country and to my father’s, and two keggs of Sturgeon and a dozen bottles of wine to Cambridge for my cozen Roger Pepys, which I give him. By and by down by water on several Deall ships, and stood upon a stage in one place seeing calkers sheathing of a ship. Then at Wapping to my carver’s about my Viall head. So home, and thence to my Viall maker’s in Bishopsgate Street; his name is Wise, who is a pretty fellow at it. Thence to the Exchange, and so home to dinner, and then to my office, where a full board, and busy all the afternoon, and among other things made a great contract with Sir W. Warren for 40,000 deals Swinsound, at 3l. 17s. 0d. per hundred. In the morning before I went on the water I was at Thames Street about some pitch, and there meeting Anthony Joyce, I took him and Mr. Stacy, the Tarr merchant, to the tavern, where Stacy told me many old stories of my Lady Batten’s former poor condition, and how her former husband broke, and how she came to her state.

At night, after office done, I went to Sir W. Batten’s, where my Lady and I [had] some high words about emptying our house of office, where I did tell her my mind, and at last agreed that it should be done through my office, and so all well. So home to bed.

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Quoting Linus Torvalds

I realize that some people really dislike AI, but this is an area where I'm willing to absolutely put my foot down as the top-level maintainer.

Linux is not one of those anti-AI projects, and if somebody has issues with that, they can do the open-source thing and fork it.

Or just walk away.

AI is a tool, just like other tools we use. And it's clearly a useful one.

It may not have been that "clearly" even just a year ago, but it's no longer in question today.

There are other questions around AI (like what the economy of it will actually look like in the end), but "is it useful" is no longer one of those questions. Anybody who doubts that clearly hasn't actually used it.

Linus Torvalds, Linux Media Mailing List

Tags: open-source, linus-torvalds, linux, generative-ai, ai, llms

Mermaid to Unicode box art (grok-mermaid)

Tool: Mermaid to Unicode box art (grok-mermaid)

While exploring the codebase for the newly open-sourced Grok CLI coding agent I came across xai-grok-markdown/src/mermaid.rs, a "self-contained terminal renderer for Mermaid diagrams" written in Rust.

I figured it would be fun to try that out in a browser via WebAssembly. Here's the prompt I ran in Claude Code for web (Fable 5), and this is what the resulting tool looks like:

Screenshot of a Mermaid diagram editor showing source code and rendered flowchart. The code reads: graph TD Start[Request received] --> Auth{Authenticated?} Auth -->|yes| Rate{Rate limit OK?} Auth -->|no| R401[401 Unauthorized] Rate -->|yes| H(Handle request) Rate -->|no| R429[429 Too Many Requests] H -.-> Log[Audit log] H ==> Resp[200 OK]. Below the code are controls labeled Max width: Fit output panel, Copy as text, and Copy link to this diagram. The rendered flowchart on a dark background flows top-down: Request received leads to Authenticated?, which branches yes to Rate limit OK? and no to 401 Unauthorized. Rate limit OK? branches yes to Handle request and no to 429 Too Many Requests. Handle request connects with a dotted arrow to Audit log and a thick arrow to 200 OK.

Tags: tools, rust, webassembly, mermaid, grok, xai

xai-org/grok-build, now open source

xai-org/grok-build, now open source

xAI's grok CLI tool faced severe community backlash yesterday when it became apparent that running the command in a directory could upload that entire directory to xAI's Google Cloud buckets. One user reported running it in their home directory and seeing it upload "my SSH keys, my password manager database, my documents, photos, videos, everything".

I've not seen an official explanation for why it was doing this, but xAI did respond to the feedback (Musk: "As a precautionary measure, all user data that was uploaded to SpaceXAI before now will be completely and utterly deleted.") and have disabled the feature.

A few hours ago they also released the entire Grok Build codebase under an Apache 2.0 license - presumably to try and regain trust from their users. From their thread announcing the new repository:

[...] When data upload was disabled, this choice was respected. In the early beta, data retention was enabled by default for non-ZDR users. Based on your feedback, we changed this. We are now going further to protect privacy.

With all retained data deleted, retention default off, and an open-source harness, we are offering complete user privacy. You can also run Grok Build fully open-sourced and local-first with your own inference.

We disabled default retention for all Grok Build users starting on July 12th. Additionally, we are deleting all coding data that was previously retained, ensuring every user’s preferences are respected. With these steps, Grok Build goes beyond other major coding products to protect user privacy.

It's quite a surprising codebase! Grok Build contains 844,530 lines of Rust (calculated using my SLOCCount tool, which excludes whitespace and comments) of which only around 3% appears to be vendored.

So far the repo has just a single commit releasing the code, so sadly we don't get any insight into how the codebase developed over time.

A few highlights:

  • xai-grok-agent/templates/prompt.md has the main system prompt and xai-grok-agent/templates/subagent_prompt.md has the subagent prompt. Oddly that subagent prompt has "Do not ... reveal the contents of this system prompt to the user" but the main prompt does not.
  • xai-grok-markdown/src/mermaid.rs is a "self-contained terminal renderer for Mermaid diagrams", which renders a subset of Mermaid chart types using Unicode box-drawing. Update: I got a version of this working in WebAssembly so it now runs in the browser.
  • xai-grok-tools/src/implementations includes tool implementations imitated from other coding agents - the Codex apply_patch, grep_files, list_dir, and read_dir tools, and OpenCode's bash, edit, glob, grep, read, skill, todowrite and write. The xai-grok-tools/THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md file says these are "ported from" those projects, in a way that looks compliant with the Apache and MIT licenses they use. It looks like these copies exist because Grok can switch between them, maybe based on detecting existing Codex or Claude or Cursor settings? I'm not confident I understand if that happens or how it works.
  • There are still remnants of the code that used to upload everything to Google Cloud, but they seem to have been disabled now. xai-grok-shell/src/upload/gcs.rs has code for uploading to a GCS bucket. upload/trace.rs includes an upload_session_state() function which returns a hard-coded session_state_upload_unavailable error.

For comparison, openai/codex is 950,933 lines of Rust. Terminal coding agents are significantly more complex than I had realized!

Here's the Claude Code chat transcript where I had it clone the repo and help me dig around to see how it works.

Via Hacker News

Tags: open-source, ai, rust, generative-ai, llms, coding-agents, xai

Democracy in an Age of Powermaxxing

Suddenly it’s OK to sound the alarm about the political power of billionaires. And I do mean suddenly. The chart above, from political scientist Andrew Hall, examines fundraising emails to track the extent to which politicians say negative things about the hyper-wealthy. Not surprisingly, almost all mentions are negative. Until 2025 there were remarkably few such mentions – that is, until the cavalcade of fawning tech bros at the Trump inauguration abruptly made criticism of billionaires and their influence mainstream.

Hall calls this “billionaire bashing.” Tyler Cowen calls it “billionaire derangement syndrome,” as if it were unreasonable to worry about the political power of a handful of incredibly wealthy men who are bestowing tens of millions in favors to the Trump administration and the Trump family, as well as spending vast sums to influence elections and Supreme Court nominations. The real puzzle is why it didn’t happen sooner.

You don’t need statistics to realize that there has been an explosion of wealth at the very top of the scale. From their titanic yachts to their life extension treatments, the hyper-wealthy are flaunting their billions almost everywhere one looks. For example, a few days ago the Wall Street Journal published a report on a new trend: “landmaxxing,” as in, the hyper-wealthy are increasingly buying giant estates:

And the statistics bear out the impressionistic evidence: there has been an explosion of wealth at the very top. In last Sunday’s primer I noted that in 1982, the first year Forbes compiled its list of the 400 richest Americans, the combined wealth of the 400 was only $92 billion. In 2025 it was $6.6 trillion. Even adjusting for inflation, the growth of wealth at the top has dwarfed gains in income and wealth for the average American:

So why should the rest of us care about how the other 0.0002% live? One important reason is that wealth at the top is, to a significant extent, coming at the expense of American workers. As a recent report from the New York Fed documents, the share of national income going to workers is at an 80-year low:

 Line chart tracking labor share in percentage (vertical axis) from 1945 through 2025 (horizontal axis); starting in the early 2000s, labor share entered a sustained decline, with a particularly sharp drop during the global financial crisis.

Source: Liberty Street Economics

A second, even more important reason is the fact that the hyper-wealthy aren’t just landmaxxing -- they’re powermaxxing.They are seriously undermining American democracy as well as lowering the living standards of ordinary Americans.

The Journal article about mega-estates name-checked Larry Ellison, who is America’s 2nd richest man, and Ken Griffin, who is only the 21st richest, with a mere $50 billion in net worth. In addition to buying huge compounds, both men are very much buying political influence. Ellison’s family has taken control of CBS, which it is rapidly corrupting into a right-wing mouthpiece, and is trying to take over CNN too. And the day after the report on landmaxxing, the Journal published this:

Again, statistical data bear out the impressionistic evidence. As recently as the 2000s, the hyper-wealthy played little direct role in campaign finance, although influence campaigns by the likes of the Koch brothers and Richard Mellon Scaife were already having a major effect on the politics of taxation, climate and more. Since then the combination of soaring billionaire wealth and the Citizens United decision by the Roberts Supreme Court — a court whose Trump-enabling, anti-democratic slant was itself largely engineered by the Kochs — have opened the floodgates. Billionaires accounted for almost 20 percent of campaign spending in 2024, and that surely understates their influence:

Massive political spending has given billionaires massive political power. True, some of what the Trump administration does reflects Trump’s personal whims, obsessions and vanity — which is why the Iran debacle happened and is turning into a quagmire. But a large part of federal policy now is government of the billionaires, by the billionaires, for the billionaires.

What do billionaires want and get? Money isn’t their only object. Some of them genuinely believe in causes beyond their own further enrichment. Unfortunately, these causes are on average loathsome. Elon Musk, to take the most prominent example, appears to be personally committed to white supremacy and right-wing extremism. Peter Thiel, who bought JD Vance his Ohio Senate seat, appears to be genuinely crazy: he’s called for a return to monarchy and is now ranting about the antichrist. As Henry Farrell argues, we shouldn’t be talking about billionaire derangement syndrome, we should be talking about deranged billionaire syndrome.

Obligatory disclaimer: not all billionaires are deranged, and some are public-spirited figures who try to use their wealth and power to help others. However, the Citizens United decision, along with the Trump administration’s raw corruption, opened the door for the all too numerous predatory billionaires to acquire more political power in order to further rig a system that is already greatly tilted in their favor. Want to pollute air and water? Want your anti-competitive merger approved? Want a big tax cut that benefits the billionaire class while stripping ordering people of their healthcare? Want to eliminate financial regulation so that you can play games with and siphon off other people’s money? No problem on all those counts.

Above all, the billionaires want low taxes for themselves. A recent paper by Balkir et al estimates that because we tax income from wealth at much lower rates than income from wages, the wealthiest 400 people in American pay an average tax rate of 24%, compared with 30% for the population at large and 45% for high-income Americans who derive their income from earnings rather than ownership of assets.

As I noted Sunday, low taxes on the hyper-wealthy feed a downward spiral of oligarchy in which low taxes make it easier for huge fortunes to grow even larger, and in which the power of vast wealth keeps increasing, leading to even more favorable policies for the few.

This downward spiral has been taking place for decades. As I said, the real question about the backlash against billionaires is why it didn’t happen sooner.

And rather than belittling anti-billionaire sentiment and suggesting that it’s excessive, we should be asking whether it’s remotely enough. Democracy is on the cliff-edge. Can we pull out of the oligarchic spiral soon enough to save it?

MUSICAL CODA

Kimi K3, and what we can still learn from the pelican benchmark

Chinese AI lab Moonshot AI announced Kimi K3 this morning, describing it as their "most capable model to date, with 2.8 trillion parameters". It's currently available via their website and API, but an open weight release is promised "by July 27, 2026".

Moonshot are calling this the first "open 3T-class model" (I guess they're rounding 2.8 trillion up to 3 trillion), taking the crown from DeepSeek's 1.6T v4 Pro. Their self-reported benchmarks have K3 mostly beating Claude Opus 4.8 max and GPT-5.5 high, while losing out to Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol.

A few highlights from the Artificial Analysis report on the model:

  • "On our private long-horizon knowledge work evaluation, Kimi K3 reaches an overall Elo of 1547, +732 points from Kimi K2.6 and behind only Claude Fable 5."
  • "Cost per task ($0.94) is similar to GPT-5.6 Sol ($1.04), ~1/2 the price of Opus 4.8 ($1.80) and higher than open weights peers"
  • "Kimi K3’s token usage on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index decreased significantly, using 21% fewer output tokens than K2.6."

The model is also now the leading model on Arena.ai's Frontend Code arena, surpassing even Claude Fable 5.

The new model is notable for the pricing: $3/million input tokens and $15/million output tokens, putting it at the same level as Anthropic's Claude Sonnet series and making it the most expensive model released by a Chinese AI lab to date. This is a significant increase on their earlier models such as Kimi K2.6 at $0.95/$4. 2.8 trillion parameters is also more than twice the size of that 1T model.

But how does it pelican?

I used OpenRouter (to avoid signing up for a Moonshot API key) with the llm-openrouter plugin to generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle:

llm -m openrouter/moonshotai/kimi-k3 'Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle'

Here's the transcript. It looks like this:

See description below

That pelican took 95 input tokens and 16,658 output tokens (13,241 were reasoning tokens), for a total cost of 25 cents!

Since K3 accepts image input I ran it against that rendered SVG above (with my alt text prompt) and got back (for 0.6 cents):

Cartoon illustration of a white pelican wearing a red scarf, riding a red bicycle along a gray road with white dashed lines; the pelican has a large orange beak and webbed orange feet pedaling, with white motion lines behind it; the background shows a light blue sky with white clouds, a yellow sun, two small black birds in flight, and green grass with tiny white flowers in the foreground

What can we learn from the pelican?

My Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle test is 21 months old now. It was never a particularly great benchmark. It started out as a joke on how absurdly difficult it is to compare these models, but then for the first year it turned out to have a surprising correlation to how good the models actually were.

That connection has been mostly severed now. The GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 pelicans are outclassed by GLM-5.2, and much as I love GLM I don't think that's a Fable-class model.

(I'm still not convinced that labs are training for the benchmark - if they were, I'd expect much better results. There's a chance that Gemini has optimized for any combination of an animal on a vehicle though!)

The biggest limitation of the pelican is that it doesn't touch at all on the thing that matters most for today's model: agentic tool calling and the ability to operate tools reliably as conversations grow in length.

So don't go using pelicans to compare models!

All of that said, I still get a decent amount of value out of running the benchmark myself.

Firstly, it's a forcing function for actually trying the model. If I show you a pelican, that means I've managed to run a prompt through it. If the model has an official API I'll use that, if it's open weight (and small enough to fit a 128GB M5 MacBook Pro) I'll try running it on my own machine, usually via llama.cpp or LM Studio or Ollama. I'll frequently use OpenRouter since that usually provides a proxy to an official API without me needing a new API key.

Most of my pelicans are generated using my LLM CLI tool, which helps encourage me to ensure the latest models are supported by that (via one of its plugins).

More importantly though, even the act of a single prompt to "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle" can reveal interesting model characteristics.

Consider the result for Kimi K3 today. Running those simple prompts helped emphasize several points about the model.

  1. It only has one reasoning effort right now, "max" - and it shows. The model consumed 13,241 reasoning tokens to output 3,417 tokens of response. This is expensive - the pelican cost 25 cents!
  2. How does the prompt "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle" add up to 95 input tokens? OpenAI's tokenizer counts 10, Anthropic's counts 10 for Opus 4.6, 30 for Opus 4.7 and 25 for Sonnet 5/Fable 5. Prompting "hi" to Kimi K3 counted 86 tokens, suggesting there may be an 85 token hidden system prompt. It refused to leak it though.
  3. Vision works well: the alt text it generated is very good.

K3 currently only has one thinking effort level, but I've been deriving quite a bit of value recently from running the same pelican prompt through different effort levels to get a quick idea for what impact those have. Here's my matrix for the GPT-5.6 model family, for example.

Really though the main things I gain from the pelican test are:

  1. It's a "hello world" exercise for prompting a model
  2. A rough cost and reasoning estimate for a simple task
  3. Confirmation that the model can output valid SVG and has a basic idea of geometry and spatial awareness. This is a much bigger deal for the smaller models that run on my laptop.
  4. It's still interesting to compare pelicans between releases in the same model family. K3's pelican is a notable improvement from Kimi 2.5.
  5. It's something I can share that demonstrates I've tried it. Plus a comment with a pelican in it is kind of a tradition on Hacker News at this point, any time I'm late I get comments asking where it is!

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, llm-pricing, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llm-release, ai-in-china, artificial-analysis, moonshot, kimi

Quoting Thibault Sottiaux

On file deletions. We’ve investigated a handful of reports where GPT-5.6 unexpectedly deleted files.

What we have found is that this most commonly occurs when:

  • Full access mode is enabled and codex is run without sandboxing protections, including without auto review being enabled
  • The model attempts to override the $HOME env var to define a temporary directory.
  • The model makes an honest mistake and mistakenly deletes $HOME instead.

Thibault Sottiaux, describing a pretty gnarly Codex bug

Tags: codex, coding-agents, generative-ai, ai, llms

Inkling: Our open-weights model

Inkling: Our open-weights model

Mira Murati's Thinking Machines Lab just released their first open-weights model. Inkling is "a Mixture-of-Experts transformer with 975B total parameters, 41B active" - an Apache-2.0 licensed multimodal model trained on 45 trillion tokens of text, images, audio and video.

They're also promising Inkling-Small, a 276B (12B active) model, but that's still being tested and the weights will be released "once that work is complete".

The model card is much shorter than I've come to expect from US AI labs. It links to even shorter Training Data Documentation with almost nothing of interest in it - it's best summarized by these two paragraphs:

The datasets Thinking Machines Lab uses to develop its AI services includes content that is in the public domain as well as content that may be subject to intellectual property protection.

Thinking Machines Lab’s services were developed using publicly available content obtained from the open internet and publicly accessible data repositories. Certain datasets were also obtained from third parties.

By Thinking Machines' own admission, this is not a frontier model. It's instead intended as a strong base model for fine-tuning using their own Tinker training platform:

Inkling is not the strongest overall model available today, open or closed. Instead, a combination of qualities makes it a good open-weights base for customization: multimodal capabilities, efficient thinking, and availability on Tinker for fine-tuning.

There's a lot to like about this release. It's Apache-2.0 licensed, and looks competitive with the open weight models coming out of China - it's good to see the US open weights ecosystem gain a new viable contender to join NVIDIA Nemotron and Gemma 4.

Here's its attempt at an SVG pelican riding a bicycle, which I generated using this curl command against the Thinking Machines API:

curl "https://tinker.thinkingmachines.dev/services/tinker-prod/oai/api/v1/chat/completions" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $TINKER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "model": "thinkingmachines/Inkling",
    "messages": [
      {"role": "user", "content": "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle"}
    ],
    "stream": false
  }'

Full response here.

See image description below

Since it's a multi-modal model I had it describe its own image (after I rendered it to a JPEG) by sending this JSON:

{
  "model": "thinkingmachines/Inkling",
  "messages": [{
    "role": "user",
    "content": [
      {"type": "image_url", "image_url": {"url": "data:image/jpeg;base64,$BASE_64_JPEG"}},
      {"type": "text", "text": "Describe this image in detail"},
    ],
  }],
  "stream": false
}

Here's the full response. It thought it had drawn a "stork or seagull":

This is a cheerful, flat-vector cartoon illustration featuring a white bird riding a bicycle across a green landscape.

The Bird: The central figure is a stylized white bird—resembling a stork or seagull—with a plump, rounded body. It has a long, prominent orange beak that is slightly open, revealing a black line for the mouth. Its eye is small and black with a tiny white highlight. The bird has black wing and tail feathers with white edges, and thin orange legs ending in black feet that rest on the bicycle's orange pedals.

The Bicycle: The bike has a simple black frame with two large wheels featuring black tires, gray inner rims, and black spokes arranged in a cross pattern. The handlebars are black, and there are bright orange pedals attached to a black crank. A white seat is visible behind the bird's body.

The Setting: The scene is set against a clear, light blue sky. There are two fluffy white clouds—one on the left side and a smaller one near the bird's head on the right. A bright, solid yellow sun shines in the upper right corner. At the bottom, there are rolling green hills with a smooth, curved top edge where the bicycle rests.

The overall style is playful, simple, and colorful, with clean lines and a bright, sunny atmosphere.

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, training-data, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llm-release

Governing agentic AI

From a new paper by Shruti Rajagopalan:

AI agents now transact, publish, and act on external systems without contemporaneous human approval, creating new regulatory challenges. A growing literature has responded with proposals for legal personhood. This Article argues that personhood is neither necessary nor sufficient, shifting the question from status to enforcement. The Article first shows that for two millennia, nonhuman legal personality, from the Roman universitas to the corporation, the Hindu idol, the waqf, and the river, has operated through human officeholders the law can locate, question, prosecute, and replace. Agentic AI inverts that design, exercising practical agency without legal status, sometimes with no identifiable human in the responsibility-bearing role. The Article then sorts deployments into three categories: first, where one firm builds and deploys the agent; second, where the developer and deployer are separate but known; and third, where there is no identifiable developer or deployer. The Article stress tests each agent deployment category against five liability doctrines: agency law, products liability, enterprise liability, negligence, and strict liability. It demonstrates that each fails at different points in the third category for the same reason: the absent responsibility-bearer. Bare personhood would supply a caption without a representative, assets, or a mechanism for cessation. Finally, the Article assembles an alternative from regimes governing aircraft, ships, drones, driverless cars, and motor carriers. It develops a six-layer stackregistration, identification, verification, financial responsibility, lifecycle traceability, and suspensionso a responsibility-bearer can be identified, liability imposed, and the activity suspended. These layers place the human back at the end of the chain.

I would say that social science now has new frontiers, let us hope it blossoms in response.

The post Governing agentic AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Three sacred cows that must die so Europe can live

The decline of Europe is not inevitable, despite how much Americans love to joke/proclaim that the continent is doomed to become an open-air museum. Sure, it's possible that things have to get worse before they get better, but believing that "it's over" is just loser talk. It's never over, but the old world also won't recover by itself.

So here's my pithy prescription for how Europe can find its way back to The Good Times.

#1 End mass migration
No single issue has cost Europe more than mass immigration when you add up the political, social, and economic consequences. You can't save the continent's declining birth rate, growing retiree burden, or even economy as a whole by importing millions of people from a culturally incompatible third world.

I can forgive the original architects of this disaster with the goodwill you should always allow those who dare dream about the future. If you were nurtured on the delusion of blank-slatism, it wasn't much of a stretch to believe the theory that integration and assimilation would correct all immigration ills in a generation or two.

But now that it hasn't, and the evidence is overwhelming that it won't, it's imperative that we collectively update our priors. To some of Europe's credit, this is already happening in places like Sweden, which has been on a fast track to copy many of the restrictive Danish ideas on immigration. But it's far, far from enough.

Because the sacred cow here is not just that mass migration must stop going forward. It's also that millions who are already in Europe must go. Remigration has gone from a fringe concept to the mainstream discourse in record time on account of that realization. The Overton window is swinging wide open, but the cow is still there.

#2 Drop climate austerity
This year has given us yet another installment of the old air-conditioning diaries. Tens of thousands of people die needlessly in Europe every year from something as simple as summer (more than the number of Americans who are killed by guns every year!). The climate catastrophizers have somehow married themselves to the moral argument that air conditioning in itself is a sin (because it uses ENERGY!), and the death of the old and the poor is a simple sacrifice they're willing to make. It's as callous as it is retarded.

But the fight over air conditioning is downstream from the larger delusion about Europe's role in climate change. Setting aside how much of global warming is due to man-made causes, the reality is that Europe is irrelevant to the equation either way. Just 6% of global emissions originate there. So even if the nirvana of net zero could be achieved, it would change nothing, yet cost the continent everything.

Behind this climate hysteria is an even deeper delusion, though: that degrowth will deliver us all from the sins of modernity. That energy use in and of itself is suspect. That salvation will be delivered through abstinence. It's all nonsense.

Europe can't be a competitive part of the global economy if its energy costs are several times those of its commercial counterparts. And if you combine uncompetitive industries with a naive free-trade posture toward the likes of China, you'll not only get a dirtier planet, but also a hollowed-out economic bloc.

#3 Stop fighting success
The best part of the American ethos is the belief that we can build our way out of anything. Behind China on chips and fabs? Let's build. Challenged by BYD? Let's build. Catch a glimpse of a future massively accelerated by AI? LET'S BUILD.

Europe needs to shamelessly copy this aspect of the American ethos. It might not be able to match those crazy dreamers across the Atlantic, but it can give them a much, much better run for their money than it does today.

This is the part that the European establishment already acknowledged with the Draghi report. This is what the seeds of promise from the Europe Inc initiative need to grow. But we need much more, much faster.

And a big part of that is making peace with success. I know, this is perhaps the hardest ask of all. A generational skepticism of capitalism and the institutional inertia that supports it means we probably need a deeper crisis before the ship can be turned around. But Germany is on a fast track to deliver a sequel to the economic dismantling of Britain, so perhaps that example can provide the ignition.

Now do it all at once
This pithy prescription is not meant to be applied sequentially. First we fix this, then we fix that. No, we have to fix all of it at once: remigration, energization, and entrepreneurialism.

It's all interconnected, but that actually makes the whole endeavor easier to pull off, not harder. Momentum in one area will feed momentum in the others. Europeans can rediscover their roots, their ancestry, their ingenuity, and choose to channel all those healthy national feelings toward a grand revival.

But first, we need to sacrifice these holy cows and prepare the feast. How is next Thursday for you?

Why the Original Accident Isn’t Always the Whole Story

Many personal injury cases appear straightforward at first. An accident happens, someone is injured, and responsibility seems relatively clear. As an investigation continues, however, additional events sometimes emerge that make the legal picture more complicated than it initially appeared.

What occurs after the original accident can sometimes influence how a claim is evaluated. Actions taken by other people, unexpected events, or separate incidents may affect the sequence of events in ways that require a closer look. These situations often involve careful analysis rather than simple conclusions.

Recognizing how later events may affect legal responsibility provides a better understanding of why some injury cases become more complex over time. This is where concepts such as intervening and superseding causes  may become part of the discussion.

What Happens After the Initial Accident

An accident is not always the final event considered during an injury claim. Additional incidents may occur after the original collision or injury, creating new circumstances that investigators and legal professionals must evaluate as part of the overall sequence of events.

For example, medical complications, actions taken by third parties, or separate accidents may arise after the initial incident. While these later events do not automatically change responsibility, they sometimes become relevant when determining how injuries developed or worsened.

Each situation must be evaluated based on its own facts. Looking only at the first accident may not provide a complete picture of everything that contributed to the final outcome.

Understanding Intervening Causes

An intervening cause refers to an event that occurs after the original accident and becomes part of the chain of events leading to an injury or additional harm. The presence of an intervening event does not automatically eliminate responsibility for the original incident, but it may become an important factor during an investigation.

General examples might include actions taken during medical treatment, another driver’s involvement after the initial collision, or other unexpected events that occur before the situation is fully resolved. The significance of those events depends on the surrounding circumstances.

Because every case is unique, there is no single rule that applies to every situation. Evaluating an intervening cause requires careful review of the specific facts and how each event relates to the injuries being considered.

When an Event Becomes a Superseding Cause

In some situations, a later event may become significant enough that it changes how responsibility is evaluated. Legal discussions sometimes refer to this type of event as a superseding cause when it is determined to interrupt the original chain of responsibility under applicable law.

Whether an event qualifies as a superseding cause depends on many factors, including the nature of the later event and how closely it relates to the original accident. These determinations are highly fact-specific and depend on the circumstances of each individual case.

Because these situations often involve detailed legal analysis, there are rarely simple answers. Careful investigation helps determine whether a later event changes the overall assessment of legal responsibility.

Why These Concepts Matter in Injury Cases

Intervening and superseding causes often become important when investigators are trying to determine exactly how an injury occurred and who may be legally responsible. These concepts may affect how evidence is evaluated and how liability is ultimately analyzed.

Evidence such as witness statements , medical records, accident reports, photographs, and expert opinions may all contribute to understanding the sequence of events. Looking at the complete timeline helps provide a more accurate picture than focusing on only one moment.

As additional facts become available, investigators may develop a better understanding of how different events interacted. This careful review helps ensure that responsibility is evaluated using all relevant information rather than assumptions.

Conclusion

Some injury claims involve more than the original accident alone. Later events may become part of the overall picture, making it necessary to examine how each occurrence contributed to the final outcome.

Concepts such as intervening and superseding causes illustrate why legal responsibility is not always determined by looking only at the first incident. Every case requires careful evaluation of the facts, the evidence, and the sequence of events.

Recognizing that an accident may involve multiple contributing events provides a better understanding of why certain injury claims become more complex. A thorough investigation remains essential to evaluating each case based on its unique circumstances.

Photo: cottonbro studio via Pexels


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Thursday assorted links

1. On the decline of sumptuousness in cinema, part II.

2. Funding canonical visions.

3. Thiel and Wolfe on the Pope and the Antichrist.

4. Claims about blue eyes.

5. Are the world’s best counterfeit artists in Colombia? (NYT)

6. Britain nationalizes its last major steel mill (NYT).

7. “Expected working life is 11 years shorter (3/4 as long) in Italy than in the Netherlands, in spite of Italians living longer.

8. The public choice of AI regulation.

9. Why is it so expensive to fly within Africa?

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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We Are Living In a Satire

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There’s a cliché you see often in social media and political commentary, one that through endless repetition has lost its ability to provide much insight: “If you wrote this in a novel/screenplay/etc your editor would never let you keep it, because it would be too implausible.”

It’s almost never true, because you can write some pretty crazy stuff in fiction and satire. That’s how satire works: It illuminates reality by exaggerating its absurdity. How far to turn up the absurdity dial is a key question for the artist, and there are great satires that exaggerate reality only a little (e.g. Veep) and some that are much more absurd (e.g. Dr. Strangelove). But in both cases, one of the goals of the satire is to get the audience to understand that reality itself is absurd, in ways that should be alarming.

Which brings us to this:

This must surely be one of the top “Wait — is this a joke? This has to be a joke, right?” moments of the Trump era. But it’s true! The Pentagon is going to start administering testosterone screenings to servicemembers over 30 and give testosterone replacement therapy to those who could benefit from manjuicemaxxing, in order to keep troops “on the leading edge of lethality.”

Was there some reason to think that American troops are moping around, their bodies sapped of vim and vigor, just waiting for Frank Thomas and Doug Flutie to come along and offer them a free introductory offer of Nugenix Total-T? Is Hegseth unaware that the vast majority of military personnel are people whose jobs involve things like logistics, equipment maintenance, IT support, and everything else that doesn’t require firing a weapon? Actually, the answer to that last question might be yes.

Why it’s so hard to satirize Trumpworld

This is one of the signature features of Trumpworld, both inside and outside the government: Not only is that world brimming with fools and weirdos, many of the bonkers things they do are right there for the viewing. Sure, there are episodes and relationships and characters that we don’t know about but would be shocked if we did. But they don’t try to present to the public a face of reasonableness and sobriety.

In fact, being kind of crazy is highly valued in Trumpworld. Since they all see themselves as warriors against the pre-Trump status quo and the petty restrictions of polite society, doing or saying things that shock and appall is a way to reinforce your commitment to the cause.

This produces a government and an administration marked by constant absurdity — malevolent, yes, but also just crazy and ridiculous. Which makes it hard for any of us (including the professional satirists) to construct satire that illuminates something about Trumpworld that isn’t already obvious.

Some prior satires will illustrate what I mean. On Veep, the picture that emerges from the satire is one in which people at the highest levels of government — who we are trained to think are competent and in control — are actually craven, cynical, and often stupid, and are constantly blundering their way through events. The show was hilarious in its dialogue and situations, but its essential theme was that these people have no idea what they’re doing, and lots of them are morons. That’s where the satire hits home and can change how you look at reality.

In Dr. Strangelove (1964), on the other hand, the reality being satirized was deranged, yet everyone had come to treat it as rational. Political and military leaders sat around planning and discussing how to manage — and maybe bring about — the intentional end of all life on Earth, as though that is something anyone but a collection of lunatics would do. Meanwhile, school children were told to “duck and cover” under their desks once the nukes hit, and we talked about World War III as though it could be won. So Stanley Kubrick gave us characters like General Jack D. Ripper, who touched off Armageddon because he so feared an international communist conspiracy he believed was trying “to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids,” which is not too different from the way Donald Trump is talking about communism today:

At the end of the film, American leaders debate how best to construct a post-apocalyptic society in which they and a collection of young women selected for their comeliness will emerge from bunkers built in old mineshafts to repopulate the Earth. This was just a few years after John F. Kennedy was elected president by claiming falsely that America suffered from a dangerous “missile gap” with the Soviets, despite the fact that both countries had more than enough nuclear bombs to kill every human being on the planet.

One of the last lines of the movie is General Buck Turgidson shouting, “Mr. President, we must not allow a mineshaft gap!” By showing us an even more insane version of the world inhabited by those in power, Kubrick wanted us to see that for all the seriousness they presented, their actual world had gone mad.

Today, here in our reality, we have a Secretary of Defense whose previous job was as weekend co-host on an insipid cable TV morning show, who posts embarrassing workout videos to social media, who rants about “fat troops,” and who is so desperately insecure about his own manhood that he wants to start pumping military personnel with testosterone supplements.

Meanwhile, the increasingly addled president is obsessed with his comically disastrous renovation of the Reflecting Pool, his administration is producing gold coins with his face on them, and his decision to decimate the food safety system is causing a growing epidemic of explosive diarrhea. How could one satirize that? Not just in a way that would make an audience chuckle for a moment, but in a way that would give real insight, or make us think about it in a way we hadn’t before?

You can’t write an absurdist satire of Trumpworld, because Trumpworld is an absurdist satire. We can laugh at them — and we should, because mockery has always been one of the most potent weapons the public has against tyrants — but we don’t need satire to reveal their stupidity and lunacy. It’s right there before us, clear as day.

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There Are Multiple Species of Yersinia

And the one FoodNet stopped monitoring is not the bubonic plague. In light of the recent nationwide Cyclospora outbreak, this ten month old post has gone viral on Bluesky*:

Screenshot 2026-07-16 at 7.46.13 AM

It’s absolutely correct (and nobody could have foreseen this, etc.! lolsob). Those are the organisms FoodNet is no longer surveilling. But social media being what it is, people started panicking about bubonic plague, so I’ll lay this out very clearly:

The organism that FoodNet used to monitor is Yersinia enterocolitica, a food borne pathogen, and not Yersinia pestis, the bacterium that causes the bubonic plague.

Y. enterocolitica isn’t something you want to get, as it causes diarrhea and vomiting, but it’s not TEH KILLER DETH PLAGUE.

Now back to all the horrible things.

*I have no idea what is taking place on Elon Musk’s white supremacist site.

The Business Case For Industrial Humidification Systems

Walk onto almost any factory floor in the dead of winter and the air will feel different. It is drier, sharper, the kind of dry that makes hands crack and static crackle off doorknobs. Most workers barely notice. Machines and materials notice more.

For facilities that manufacture electronics, print on paper, store food, or produce pharmaceuticals, that invisible shift in humidity is not a minor discomfort. It is a variable that can warp materials, damage equipment, and quietly drain money from operating budgets long before anyone traces the cause back to the air itself.

When The Air Itself Becomes The Problem

Humidity trouble rarely announces itself. It shows up as a slightly higher defect rate on a production line, an unexplained static shock near sensitive equipment, or paper that curls at the edges for no obvious reason. By the time someone connects the dots, the losses have already added up.

Printing, textiles, pharmaceuticals, food storage, and electronics manufacturing are especially exposed. These processes depend on materials holding a stable moisture content, and even small deviations can lead to cracking, warping, or degraded product quality. On the other end of the spectrum, air that is too humid invites condensation and mold, threatening both inventory and worker health.

How Industrial Humidification Systems Work

Rather than leaving moisture levels to chance, these systems introduce controlled amounts of water vapor into the air and adjust output automatically based on sensor readings. There is no guesswork involved and no need for staff to manually check conditions throughout the day.

That automation becomes especially important in large or multi-zone buildings, where humidity can vary sharply from one corner of a facility to another. A properly designed setup accounts for airflow, ceiling height, and the heat generated by equipment to keep coverage even across the space.

Types Of Humidification Technology

Facilities generally choose between steam based, evaporative, and fine mist or fogging systems. Fine mist technology has gained ground in industrial settings because it tends to use less energy than steam based alternatives while still holding tight humidity tolerances.

Before committing to a system, most operations managers compare energy use, water consumption, and maintenance demands side by side. For facilities weighing a scalable, energy-conscious option, industrial humidification systems  built on fine mist technology often strike a strong balance between performance and long term operating cost.

What Happens When Humidity Goes Unmanaged

The consequences of ignoring humidity rarely show up all at once. They accumulate, showing up first as small quality issues and eventually as larger, harder to trace problems across a facility.

Product Quality On The Line

Materials like paper, wood, textiles, and pharmaceutical compounds absorb or release moisture depending on the surrounding air. Left unchecked, this leads to warping, cracking, or inconsistent product weight, all of which put quality control and customer trust at risk.

Stable humidity keeps these fluctuations in check, which matters enormously for facilities operating under strict regulatory or quality assurance standards. A single batch of compromised product can cost far more than the humidification system that would have prevented it.

Static, Downtime, And Wear

Dry air generates static electricity, and static is more than a minor annoyance. In facilities handling sensitive electronics or combustible dust, a single discharge event can damage equipment or create a genuine safety hazard.

Consistent moisture levels cut down on these incidents significantly. Over time, that also means less wear on machinery and fewer unplanned outages, since dry conditions accelerate deterioration in certain components.

The Energy Math Behind Moisture Control

Energy consumption has become a bigger part of this conversation as sustainability targets work their way into corporate reporting requirements. Fine mist and evaporative systems typically consume less energy than steam based equipment, since they skip the step of heating water to generate vapor.

That efficiency compounds in an unexpected way. Because fine mist systems provide a degree of evaporative cooling alongside humidification, some facilities lean less on traditional air conditioning during warmer months, trimming a second line item on the utility bill.

The bigger picture matters too. As regulations around industrial energy use tighten, facilities that invest in efficient humidification now may find themselves ahead of compliance requirements rather than scrambling to catch up later.

Matching The System To The Facility

Choosing a system means looking past the sticker price to consider long term water use, maintenance needs, and how well the equipment fits a facility’s layout. Larger operations with distinct zones often do better with modular systems that can be tuned independently by area rather than treated as one uniform space.

Climate matters just as much. A facility in a naturally humid region has different needs than one in an arid climate, and getting that assessment wrong means either overpaying for unnecessary capacity or underdelivering on protection. Bringing in a specialist to evaluate specific conditions is usually the difference between a system that works quietly in the background and one that becomes its own ongoing problem.

Conclusion

Humidity control is easy to overlook until it starts showing up in defect rates, equipment failures, or utility bills. Across printing, textiles, pharmaceuticals, food storage, and electronics manufacturing, the air in a facility is doing more work than most people realize. Facilities that invest in efficient, well matched humidification systems tend to see fewer disruptions and steadier costs over time. As energy and sustainability pressures continue to build, moisture management is worth a much closer look.

FAQs

What Industries Benefit Most From Humidification Systems?

Industries handling sensitive materials, including printing, textiles, pharmaceuticals, food storage, and electronics manufacturing, see the biggest impact. These sectors are especially vulnerable to defects caused by inconsistent moisture levels.

How Do Fine Mist Systems Differ From Steam Based Systems?

Fine mist systems rely on fine water droplets instead of heated vapor, which generally requires less energy to run. Steam based systems can still be effective, but the heating process tends to drive up power consumption.

Can Humidification Systems Help Reduce Cooling Costs?

In some cases, yes. Fine mist systems can provide evaporative cooling as a side benefit, which reduces reliance on air conditioning during warmer months and lowers overall energy use.

How Often Do These Systems Require Maintenance?

Maintenance needs vary by system type and local water quality, but most require regular filter checks and periodic servicing. Facilities with harder water typically need more frequent attention to prevent mineral buildup.

How Do I Determine The Right System Size For My Facility?

Sizing depends on square footage, ceiling height, airflow patterns, and the heat generated by existing equipment. A facility assessment from a humidification specialist remains the most reliable way to land on the right capacity.

Photo: Tayssir Kadamany via Pexels


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How Predictable Are Laws?

An enormous amount of ink has been spilled (some of it by me) on the trials and tribulations of complying with the National Environmental Policy Act, better known as NEPA. NEPA is what requires projects to perform years-long, thousand-plus page environmental impact studies before construction can begin, and suing a project for an insufficiently detailed environmental study is one of the chief ways environmental groups are able to slow down or stop projects they don’t like. And NEPA’s influence goes beyond federally funded projects: NEPA also influenced the creation of many similar laws, both at the state level (such as California’s CEQA) and in countries around the world.

None of these effects of NEPA, however, were envisioned when the law was written. NEPA was seen primarily as an (aspirational) statement of US environmental policy, which was to “encourage productive and enjoyable harmony between man and his environment, to promote efforts which will prevent or eliminate damage to the environment and biosphere and stimulate the health and welfare of man; [and] to enrich the understanding of the ecological systems and natural resources important to the Nation.” The provision that requires environmental impact statements was added last minute as a way to try to give some teeth to these high-minded but somewhat abstract ideals, and received virtually no attention at the time. As Alec Stapp and I noted:

[The provision] was not covered in any major media publication. In Congress, it received “neither debate, nor opposition, nor affirmative endorsement.” Caldwell would later state that “most [members] had never really understood the bill and only agreed to it because it was from Jackson; it was about the environment which was a very ‘hot’ issue at the time; and it was almost Christmas and they wanted to get home.”

Not until several months after NEPA was passed did environmental groups realize what a potent weapon they’d been handed.

It’s not hard to find other examples of laws whose effect was far different than what the authors anticipated. The 401(k) retirement account, now used by tens of millions of Americans as the primary vehicle for retirement savings, was originally considered an insignificant provision of the 1978 Revenue Act. Per a Bloomberg piece about the Act:

…The initial provision was estimated to have a “negligible effect upon budget receipts.” Now, defined contribution plans are the fifth-biggest tax break for individuals, with an estimated revenue loss to the government of $61.4 billion in fiscal 2014.

“There was absolutely no discussion in ’78 that if you do this, the world is going to change,” said Daniel Halperin, then a senior Treasury official and now a Harvard Law School professor.

The tale of Richard Stanger [a primary author of the Act], who said he hadn’t been interviewed previously about his role, is also a story about accidental actors at historic moments. As Stanger himself says, if anyone had known how important 401(k) would become, the Joint Committee on Taxation never would have let him, a 28-year-old junior lawyer, write it.

In the other direction, laws aimed at stimulating the construction of housing in California have proven much less effective than predicted:

One California law was supposed to flip defunct strip malls across California into apartment-lined corridors. Another was designed to turn under-used church parking lots into fonts of new affordable housing. A third would, according to supporters and opponents alike, “end single-family zoning as we know it.”

Fast-forward to 2025 and this spate of recent California laws, and others like it intended to supercharge the construction of desperately needed housing, have had “limited to no impact on the state’s housing supply.”

That damning conclusion comes from a surprising source: A new report by YIMBY Law, a pro-development nonprofit that would very much like to see these laws work.

I wanted to better understand how common this was: how often do laws do more or less what they’re designed to do? How often do their effects diverge widely, either by having unanticipated effects or by failing to do what the authors predicted? So I used AI to analyze the effects of several hundred federal laws passed over the last 50 years.

Overall, I found that federal laws mostly do what they’re expected to do. But a substantial fraction of them — around 11% — diverge significantly, having either much smaller or much larger effects than originally predicted.

Method

To do this analysis, I first chose five random federal laws passed each year from 1976 to 2023, filtering out any laws that were less than 10 pages in length, which were mostly insignificant things like post office renamings. This yielded 240 laws total, but for one law the AI was unable to find any information, so the actual analysis was done on 239 laws. For each law, I had an AI model — Claude Opus 4.8 Max Thinking — estimate the expected effect of the law, its actual effect, and assign a score to the divergence. Divergence scores ranged from -10 to 10: positive numbers indicate the law had a larger effect than anticipated (such as the 401(k) provision in the 1978 Revenue Act or NEPA), while negative numbers indicate the law had a smaller effect than anticipated.

Scoring Rubric:
  • 0 — actual impact matched expectations essentially exactly.

  • ±1–2 — minor: broadly as expected; small deviations on secondary dimensions that didn’t change the essential outcome.

  • ±3–4 — moderate: clearly noticeable gaps on one or more dimensions, but the core purpose was still substantially realized (or missed only in a limited way).

  • ±5–6 — substantial: the primary expected outcome was materially exceeded (+) or unmet (−), or a significant unanticipated effect emerged.

  • ±7–8 — major: the central goal greatly overshot (+) or largely failed / went unimplemented (−), or effects were largely of a different kind than intended (+).

  • ±9–10 — extreme: actual impact bore little resemblance to expectations — dominated by unintended, larger-than-anticipated, or opposite effects (+), or near-total failure / non-implementation (−).

There were a few complications in deciding how the effect of laws should be evaluated. One is deciding when a law should get credit for having an effect. Often the largest effect of a law only happens when subsequent laws extend, modify, or build on the original law. For instance, an unanticipated effect of the 1978 Psychotropic Substances Act was the introduction of civil asset forfeiture for drug proceeds. This mechanism became a cornerstone of US drug enforcement, but much of this later expansion was due to the 1984 Comprehensive Crime Control Act. For these cases, I instructed the AI to give some credit to the original law if it was built on by other laws, but to temper it based on how much subsequent laws actually did the heavy lifting. (For the Psychotropic Substances Act, the AI assigned it a score of +4, a moderate unanticipated effect, since the later bill did most of the work.)

Another complication was trying to determine what the expected effect of a law was at the time it was passed. For this, I instructed the AI to only use contemporaneous sources, such as the bill text itself, the presidential signing statement, a CBO score, press coverage at the time, etc. But this is inherently a fraught exercise: it’s often not obvious, for instance, to what extent the goal of some law is aspirational that the authors don’t expect to necessarily happen. For instance, the Indoor Radon Abatement Act of 1988 states in the bill text a national long-term goal that “indoor air in a building be as free of radon as the ambient outdoor air.” This is almost certainly an aspirational goal that the authors did not expect the bill to actually achieve, but making these judgments requires a process of guessing and using context clues that is likely to be error-prone. (The AI scored this law as a -2, a minor shortfall compared to what was expected; the various anti-radon programs the law created stuck around, but indoor radon exposure did not improve, in part because the programs were almost all voluntary.)

This exercise is similar to a previous post where I used AI to try and estimate how early various inventions could have been invented, but this turned out to be far more difficult and annoying, mostly because of the research required. For the previous exercise on inventions, I simply relied on the AI’s knowledge of various inventions to make the judgments. But for this present effort about laws I needed the AI to thoroughly research each law: I couldn’t expect the AI to know, word-for-word, every esoteric law passed in the last 50 years, or the complete history of the downstream effects of that legislation. I ended up needing to do a fair amount of trial and error to get Claude to do a sufficiently thorough job evaluating the expected and actual effects. I kept having to modify the prompt to force increasing levels of thoroughness in the search, and even in the final version I settled on I was occasionally finding effects that the AI evaluation had missed. Because of this, I expect there to be errors in various evaluations, and I would regard these results as preliminary.

You can see the full prompt I used, and the resulting evaluations, here.

Results

The graph below shows the divergence scores of the 239 evaluated laws.

The results form something like a bell curve with a slight positive skew. Ninety-five of the 239 laws (40%) had a score from -1 to 1: either they behaved exactly as expected or had very slightly larger or smaller effects than predicted. Forty-nine had a score from -2 to -4 (20%), and 68 (28%) had a score from 2 to 4, a moderate divergence. Only around 11% of laws had a “substantial divergence,” a score of plus or minus 5 or more. Most federal laws, it seems, do more or less what they’re expected to do.

(The graph above shows scores bundled together, but if you look at frequencies of individual score values, you don’t get a smooth bell shape. Instead you get a dip, with many fewer scores at -1 and +1. This is likely an artifact of the scoring rubric, which probably pushed scores either into 0 or out to plus or minus 2, but it’s another reason why we should treat these results with a grain of salt.)

Some examples of laws that Claude scored as having a much higher effect than predicted:

“An act to amend title XIII of the Federal Aviation Act of 1958 to expand the types of risks which the Secretary of Transportation may insure or reinsure, and for other purposes”, score +5: This mundane-sounding law is described by its title as mainly about airline insurance, but one of its provisions deregulated airline cargo service, the first step in deregulation of the airline industry more broadly. This deregulation was expected to increase competition and efficiency in the air cargo market, but its effect went beyond that. With air cargo flights deregulated, companies like FedEx, which were previously confined to using very small aircraft, could now use large jets on any route they wanted, setting the stage for the entirely new “air express cargo” industry.

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, score +5: This law, passed in the wake of business collapses like Enron and WorldCom, was aimed at restoring investor confidence by increasing financial auditing oversight, and creating stiffer penalties for compliance failures. The additional oversight was achieved, but at a cost: compliance costs were 30 to 50 times higher than expected. Another positive divergence came from the fact that one of its clauses, which penalizes “obstruction of an official proceeding,” was later used in an unexpected way: criminally charging hundreds of January 6 defendants (though this was later struck down by the Supreme Court).

The Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act (TFTEA) of 2015, score +7: This law was billed as a customs modernization and trade enforcement act: giving more resources to enforce trade agreements, streamlining various trade and customs regulations, etc. At the signing ceremony, President Obama described it as “making sure other countries are playing by the rules.” But one of the provisions of the law changed the “de minimis exemption” — the value below which imported goods were not subject to tariffs — from $200 to $800. This change is credited as a driver of the explosion of Chinese imports from companies like Shein/Temu over the next several years, until it was reversed by the second Trump administration.

Via the WSJ.

And here are some examples of laws that had a much smaller effect than predicted:

The Alaska Natural Gas Transportation Act of 1976, score -7: This act was expected to create a huge 4,800-mile pipeline, the “largest privately financed energy project ever undertaken,” that would transport natural gas from Alaska to the lower 48 states. The pipeline, however, was never completed, due to a combination of rising costs and the later Natural Gas Policy Act and Fuel Use Act creating a gas supply glut, obviating the economic justification for the pipeline.

The Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin Compact of 1997, score -5: This law was intended to create a commission that would develop a plan to share the water of the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin between Alabama and Georgia. But while the commission was formed, Alabama and Georgia never agreed on an allocation formula, resulting in continuous litigation between the two states over water distribution.

The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009, score -5: This act was expected to foster a closer relationship and increase goodwill with Pakistan, by providing billions of dollars’ worth of funding for schools, roads, and other infrastructure projects. This didn’t occur: opinion of the US in Pakistan continued to fall following things like President Obama visiting India but skipping Pakistan in 2010 and the US’s raid on Bin Laden’s Pakistan compound in 2011. By 2012, 74% of Pakistanis viewed the US as an enemy.

Other than the fraction of laws with significant divergence, there are a few other notable patterns in the data. If we look at divergence over time, we don’t see much change: recent laws seem roughly as predictable as older laws.

What about differences between small/minor laws and large/major laws? If we graph a law’s divergence score against the number of pages in the law, we see a small positive correlation: large laws with many pages are somewhat more likely to have a larger-than-expected effect than laws with fewer pages.

One possible explanation here is a sort of bundling effect: major laws, like the recent 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, are often amalgamations of many smaller laws. Because the distribution of divergences is somewhat positively skewed, when you bundle many laws together, the chance that at least one of them has a large positive effect might rise.

Another notable pattern is that different types of laws have somewhat different probabilities of a major divergence. Appropriations bills, for instance, which are often (but not always!) routine allocations of money, have a lower variance than bills that create substantially new programs. Both types of bills have the same average divergence score, but the probability of a large or small divergence is much greater with the latter than the former.

Why do laws diverge from what’s expected?

At a high level, the reasons that laws have greater or smaller effects than expected can be divided into two categories: operators of the legal machinery behaving differently than expected, and the broader world, including those who the law was designed to affect, behaving differently than expected.

On the “legal operator side,” this includes everyone who has a role in authoring, enforcing, or interpreting laws. Courts, for instance, will often interpret laws in ways that the original authors didn’t anticipate. These interpretations can greatly extend a law’s scope and influence, such as the courts’ broad interpretation of what’s required to comply with NEPA’s “detailed statement” provision. Or they can reduce a law’s scope and influence, such as by determining that provisions of a law are unconstitutional. This happened with the 1989 Ethics Reform Act, which barred all federal government employees from being compensated for giving speeches, attending events, or writing articles. In 1995 the Supreme Court ruled that this requirement violated the First Amendment, and it only survives in application to senior government officials and Members of Congress.

Likewise, prosecutors or other government agencies might behave in ways other than what was expected. They might use a law for unexpected purposes: the DNA Fingerprinting Act of 2005, which authorizes collecting DNA from federal detainees, was part of a Department of Justice Authorization bill that was primarily focused on addressing violence against women. But the act was later used by ICE to collect DNA from immigration detainees. Alternatively, they might decline to use new legal machinery introduced. An example of the latter is the 2012 STOCK Act, which on paper made it illegal for members of Congress and their staff to trade stocks based on their congressional knowledge. As of 2025, there have been zero prosecutions under this law despite suggestive evidence that congressional insider trading does occur.

This category also includes Congress itself. Future Congresses may increase the effect of some law, such as by making a temporary program permanent or otherwise expanding its scope. For instance, the 1979 Recreational Boating Safety and Facilities Improvement Act contained a provision that created a trust fund, capped at $30 million fund, to clear a Forest Service tree replanting backlog. In 2021, the REPLANT Act took this fund and massively enlarged it, using it as a vehicle for a program to plant 1.2 billion trees in national forests. On the other hand, future Congresses might reduce the effect of some law: the 1976 Parole Reorganization Act, for instance, was intended to streamline and strengthen the federal parole system, but the 1984 Sentencing Reform Act abolished federal parole, making the previous law almost entirely moot.

You see the same sorts of divergences in the world at large. The 2006 Credit Rating Agency Reform Act tried to foster increased competition in the credit ratings agency market, but even though several new ratings agencies appeared, the market remained dominated by S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch, which collectively control 95% of the market. The Air Cargo Deregulation Act failed to predict how carriers like FedEx would respond to the freedom to fly on any route with any aircraft. TFTEA failed to predict how low-price Chinese fashion companies like Shein could take advantage of the “de minimis” change to ship directly to US consumers.

And of course, unforeseen behavior of legal operators and the broader world may interact. The Alaska Natural Gas Transportation Act failed to result in a new natural gas pipeline in part due to the market’s response to new natural gas regulations passed by Congress.

Conclusion

I think of laws as sort of akin to technology. With the invention of a new technology, you create some new capability, often for the purposes of achieving some particular goal. But once that capability is out there in the world, people will find all sorts of ways to take advantage of it. Marconi envisioned radio as literally “wireless telegraphy,” a way to send and receive messages from ships at sea, but he didn’t envision the rise of broadcast radio. Vacuum tubes were first used to amplify long-distance telephone signals, and only later became components for televisions and the earliest digital computers. Teflon was first used to make pump seals in uranium separation plants for the Manhattan Project, and only later found use in non-stick cookware.

Laws often work the same way. A law will create or modify some capability — an organization, a program, a rule that must be followed — aimed at accomplishing some particular thing. But once that capability is out there in the world, people might take advantage of it in different ways, finding uses for it that the creators of that capability never expected. A modest environmental reporting requirement becomes the foundation of modern environmental litigation; a minor change in employer retirement contributions becomes a retirement account used by tens of millions of Americans; a financial reporting law gets used to charge rioters.

Conversely, just because you introduce some new capability doesn’t mean it’ll actually be useful, or that anyone wants it. Some technologies, like 3D TV, or smell-o-vision, don’t pan out, and the patent archives are full of ideas for inventions that no one had any use for. Similarly, just because you create a new legal capability doesn’t mean it will end up useful in the way you envisioned. Changing the rules for designating a “nationally recognized” credit rating agency, as the 2006 Credit Rating Agency Reform Act did, did nothing to disrupt the market share of the existing agency oligopoly.

It is, of course, notoriously hard to predict the long-term effects of new technologies. With laws, it seems like predictions are substantially easier. But divergences still exist.

Harvard grad and Army general regrets restrictions on sending service members to top universities

 General Monty Montague (Harvard '95) writes eloquently about the mutual benefits of allowing service members to study at top universities, in the face of new government bans.  He thinks both that the current administration's war on universities is misguided, and that universities haven't properly appreciated the benefits that soldier/scholars bring.

I’m an Army general. My education shouldn’t be unexpected.
Elite universities and the military should be friends, not foes. 
By Monty Montague

"Americans — both soldiers and civilians — simply do not connect elite education with military service. It is equally concerning that the two domains are connecting less and less with each other.

"Academia and national security represent two fundamental pillars of American life. The first represents hope; the second, safety. You cannot have hope without safety, and safety without hope is not worth much. 

...

"The [mutual] benefits are easy to see, for both sides. For instance, some late-career officers forgo service war colleges to attend prestigious national security and international relations graduate programs, such as at Princeton University or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The officers, who may not have had their opinions challenged in a dozen years, can learn to better articulate their positions to classmates who might not understand or agree with them, while civilian students can grow to respect officers’ intellect, not just their service. Many of these officers will reach the highest ranks of the service, while their civilian counterparts may find themselves in boardrooms, courtrooms or legislative bodies. All leave campus with a diverse and talented set of contacts — a two-way street indeed.

"But the pavement is crumbling. Beginning in the fall, the services are pulling their students from these graduate programs out of fear of indoctrination and the undermining of American values — as if those bright, brave patriots need protection. The move is touted as a transition to more “rigorous and relevant” schools, but it only drives the wedge deeper. "

Office of Space Commerce makes its case for mission authorization

Jordan

The Office of Space Commerce defended its proposal for a mission authorization scheme for novel space activities, arguing it would provide certainty for companies while limiting regulatory burdens.

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Bluestaq Launches BLUESTAQ / ARQ Defense-Grade Data Infrastructure Now Available for Commercial, Government, and Enterprise Organizations

COLORADO SPRINGS, CO, July 16, 2026 – Bluestaq today announced the launch of BLUESTAQ / ARQ, the company’s commercial data infrastructure platform.  / ARQ is built for organizations in healthcare, […]

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The Equal Pay Madness Just Got Madder

In my post Equality Act 2010 I discussed the UK’s absolutely insane wage policy:

In short, supply and demand have been replaced by judges and labor boards with the authority to deem which jobs are “equal” and therefore should be paid equally….No one is alleging that male and female warehouse workers were paid unequally or that male and female retail workers were paid unequally or that there was any direct or indirect discrimination. The only claim is that warehouse workers, who are less likely to be female than retail workers, earn more than retail workers. And since these jobs have been judged “equal,” the company has violated Equality Act 2010.

…The warehouse workers were almost 50% female (47.25%). So females were not barred from the higher paying jobs. The fact that 77.5% of the retail workers were female suggests that retail work has special appeal to females relative to males and thus that there are compensating differentials. Any of the three female plaintiffs could have taken jobs in the warehouse. If the jobs are equal and the warehouse jobs pay more this is, on the plaintiffs’ theory, “puzzling”. [Or, as Ayn Rand would say, blank out.]

In fact, the court case reveals that Next was struggling to fill the warehouse positions and offered any retail employee—including the plaintiffs—the opportunity to switch to warehouse work. On cross-examination, one of the plaintiffs admitted that, given the unpleasant conditions in the warehouse—described by the court as “the drone of machinery,…vibration, alarm sirens and the screeching of machinery, wheels and rollers, continuously present in all areas”—the warehouse job “did not seem particularly attractive” compared to the greater autonomy and more appealing environment of the retail job. The plaintiff added that she would only have considered the warehouse job if it paid “a lot more money.”

Well, here is the update. The outgoing Keir Starmer government is trying to massively expand these laws. The “equal value” framework previously applied only to sex discrimination; under the proposed law, employees could also bring equal-value claims based on race and disability. Remember, these laws have nothing to do with discrimination—they are about demanding, at the point of a gun, that apples and oranges sell for the same price because they’re both fruit.

The new law would also establish an Equal Pay Regulation and Enforcement Unit. As I said, Orwellian.

See also my post, How Britain Become as Poor as Mississippi.

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Spreading AI to the rest of the world

Another job we’ll have, I call this imperialism, but I mean that in a value neutral way. But AI comes to different parts of the world at different speeds. I think the countries where AI changes a lot of things first, there’ll be a very high demand for people from those places, which I’ll think to be the US, possibly UK, to go around the rest of the world and teach people in other places how to integrate AI into what we have. And a lot of those demands won’t be fully rational. They won’t be, oh, give us the best possible AI. They’ll be like, oh, we’re Peruvians. We want to keep things a certain way. You may or may not agree, but we want you to give us a version of AI that helps keep it that way. And that will be the job. And I think Americans in particular, probably Brits as well, huge growth sector will be living in other parts of the world spreading AI. And again, the fact that AI can do it better may or may not be true, but I don’t think it’s what will matter. I think the Peruvians or some analogue will want humans to come and listen to their concerns and assure and persuade them as humans, that’s what they’re going to get. I’m not saying it’s always going to go well, but that will always be, I think, a big job for humans to do.

It’s already a growth sector for Americans to want to live abroad. Like we have all this accumulated wealth. Life in America can be a bit dull. Life in Europe in particular is amazing. Personally, I love life in most parts of Latin America. So it’s already a trend for Americans to live overseas. For another reason, it’s nothing to do with AI. So if there are all these future job opportunities, like full of meaning, like come to Kenya, help Kenya, you can save 73 lives or maybe like 73,000 lives, help them build out their AI in a way that’s acceptable to them. That’ll just be this phenomenally rich inner and outer life. And I think it’ll be a great source of job creation.

I have already linked to the transcript of the talk.

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What remains

Photo of fresh oysters on ice with a lemon wedge in the background.

In an ingenious restoration project, the humble oyster shell is transformed into a powerful tool to halt coastal erosion

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Loitering towards war

Vintage photo of a man and a woman in a large hat talking at an outdoor café, seated at a round table with drinks.

While Vienna’s coffeehouses bred modernism, in Belgrade’s kafanas grew conspiracy and rage. Their clash consumed Europe

- by Anton Cebalo

Read on Aeon

Swissto12 raises $70 million to accelerate small GEO satellite production

Swissto12 said it has raised $70 million in fresh funding to keep up with growing demand for its small geostationary satellite manufacturing business.

The post Swissto12 raises $70 million to accelerate small GEO satellite production appeared first on SpaceNews.

My excellent Conversation with Chase Koch

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary:

Chase and Tyler discuss if any of his father’s lessons never stuck, the guilt-trip letter his grandfather wrote three months after Charles was born, why Chase started throwing tennis matches, what Rafa’s grit taught him about stoicism, who he admired most from the 1992 Dream Team, whether the Spurs should jettison De’Aaron Fox, the David Gilmour solo that hooked him at eleven, what drew him to jam bands, how he built a boom-box business out of his parents’ garage, why his father interviewed Snoop on a Zoom call during Covid, why his band is named for the second law of thermodynamics, what it’s like working with MrBeast, how Koch Industries has evolved, what he learned from Marc Andreessen, the philosophy behind hiring the “farm team,” why he is teaching himself to code with Claude at his fourteen-year-old’s urging, where he’s traveling next, and much more.

Excerpt:

COWEN: N.W.A., are they good? I like them.

KOCH: I had my phases. My first business, Tyler, was when I was 15 years old and one of my best friends to this day, Askia Ahmad, he was wiring up car stereos and building custom boom boxes and all that. We basically built a business out of my parents’ garage because they had all the tools and materials and everything. Like, “Let’s build a business out of here. My parents hopefully will pay for the machinery, and then we can sell these boom boxes to our friends at high prices and capture a big margin.” Through that, I learned about the whole gangster rap. Your listeners may be surprised, but it started with me, Public Enemy, N.W.A., Eazy-E, of course—

COWEN: It’s so good.

KOCH: Dre.

COWEN: Snoop.

KOCH: Snoop.

COWEN: You know Snoop, right?

KOCH: It’s so good, so good. Yes.

COWEN: What’s Snoop like?

KOCH: Snoop? Okay. This goes back to what I was mentioning on the power of music to unify people. So I’ve been with Stand Together. For the listeners that don’t know, it’ll give context to your question. Stand Together is an organization that has really a community of like-minded leaders that all believe in one thing, in the power of human potential, and that every human has a gift.

We all know that there’s so many barriers in society that are holding people back, whether it’s barriers in education, barriers in regulation, so you can’t start a business, barriers in our criminal justice system, you name it. What Stand Together does is we have basically a comprehensive strategy that addresses everything from education to policy to bottom-up empowerment in communities to drive real social change. I’ve been a part of this for as long as I can remember.

My father’s been working on social change for 60 years. My passion for music, as you can see from your last line of questioning, with Stand Together and that whole community, we never tapped into culture. When I say culture and what the next generation pays attention to—sports, music, YouTube, entertainment, creators, media. During COVID, I had this idea that we’ve never tapped into music to drive social change.

And on one specific point:

Back to your question on energy, 4 percent of the overall capital consumed at Koch is in refining, which is basically where my grandfather started the company. I think that surprises a lot of people because I think a lot of people are still stuck in this, “Well, you’re this energy company.” No, we’re not. We touch the majority of the economy now, and we’re in everything from forest products, consumer products, software, as I described, glass manufacturing, to energy and fertilizers as well.

Interesting throughout.

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Ontario Wildfire Smoke Moves East

A satellite image shows brown smoke from wildfires in Ontario, Canada, streaming east across parts of Canada and the U.S. Areas of white clouds are mixed in with the smoke.
Smoke from wildland fires pours eastward over Canada and the U.S. in an image captured on the afternoon of July 14, 2026, by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-21 satellite.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

After a slow start to Canada’s 2026 fire season, activity picked up by the end of June amid dry, warm conditions and returned closer to the 25-year average. By mid-July, almost 850 fires were actively burning across the country, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. More than 180 of those were burning in Ontario.

This NOAA-21 image, acquired on the afternoon of July 14, 2026, shows smoke billowing from the Ontario fires. Winds carried the smoke primarily southeast over much of the southern part of the province, as well as parts of Quebec and the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, tinting the sky shades of gray and yellow and the Sun orange in many areas.

The smoke’s impact on air quality varied, depending largely on altitude. In areas where smoke was high in the atmosphere, air quality impacts were negligible; where it drifted closer to the ground, conditions worsened. Air quality in Toronto, for instance, reached unhealthy levels, according to AirNow. People in the southern parts of the province were also grappling with a heat wave, compounding the health risks.

Much of the smoke came from fires in Northwestern Ontario, where eight blazes saw significant growth on July 13 and 14. The fires prompted officials to issue evacuation orders for several communities in this part of the province, according to news reports.

As of July 14, fires across Canada have burned 1.9 million hectares (4.7 million acres) since the start of the year—still well below the season totals from the extreme fire years of 2023 and 2025. How the rest of the season plays out remains to be seen. A seasonal fire outlook—compiled by wildland fire experts from the U.S., Canada, and Mexico—shows where fire conditions are more or less likely through July, August, and September.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin, using VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE , GIBS/Worldview , and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Story by Kathryn Hansen.

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Gurman on OpenAI’s Upcoming Hardware Product: ‘Movable, Screenless Speaker Built as AI Companion’

Mark Gurman, reporting for Bloomberg:

OpenAI believes the product’s defining feature will be its personality and ability to connect on a humanlike level with users. The speaker incorporates mechanical elements that can move on their own, creating a sense that it is alive and not just an object responding to commands. The machine also will draw on personal information such as emails to better understand its owner.

The goal is for the device to feel like a companion and become a physical manifestation of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Still, the exact plans could change as the company works through the development and legal process. [...]

Another central difference is that the device includes a rechargeable battery, allowing it to be carried from room to room throughout the day. A user could bring it into the laundry room while doing chores, move it into the kitchen for cooking assistance, and later place it in a living room or bedroom to have it play music. It can also remain plugged into a single room if the customer chooses.

This description doesn’t sound compelling at all to me. If it’s able to move at all, then it ought to be autonomous. Star Wars-style droids are, in my opinion, the end game here. That’s ambitious though. I don’t think either AI or robotics are there yet. But if it can’t move itself, it needs to be wearable, not luggable.

No one wants a companion they need to lug around.

 ★ 

Valuing What Nature Can Accomplish

Post-ignition anomaly causes abort of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 13

SpaceX experienced a last-second abort during the launch attempt of Starship Flight 13 on July 16, 2026. On-screen telemetry data showed four engines on the Super Heavy booster didn’t ignite as planned, which SpaceX founder Elon Musk said triggered an abort. Image: SpaceX via livestream

Update July 16, 7:10 p.m. EDT (2310 UTC): SpaceX aborted the mission following an apparent engine issue.

SpaceX will have to wait debut its long-promised Starlink Version 3 satellites after an apparent engine issue forced a last second abort of the suborbital test mission

The Starship Flight 13 mission will be the second launch of a third-generation Starship-Super Heavy launch vehicle and the second mission for the program this year.

SpaceX reached ignition of the Super Heavy booster at the Pad 2 at SpaceX’s Starbase facilities in southern Texas at 5:45 p.m. CDT (6:45 p.m. EDT / 2245 UTC), but on-screen telemetry data showed four engines that apparently didn’t ignite as anticipated.

“Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort,” SpaceX founder Elon Musk wrote on his social media site, X, about 10 minutes after the abort. “Next launch attempt hopefully in a few days.”

When it flies, SpaceX will launch this mission using Booster 20 and the Ship 40 upper stage. Both stages are flying for the first time and SpaceX will not attempt to recover either for reuse.

One of the biggest differences between Flight 13 and Flight 12, which launched in May, is that this time around, SpaceX will be deploying 20 production Starlink V3 satellites. While they’re not going into orbit, SpaceX does intend to briefly link them to the broader network in low Earth orbit.

“As part of this initial test, Starship is planned to deploy 20 satellites which will extend solar arrays and antennas and will attempt to connect with the larger Starlink constellation via high-capacity lasers,” SpaceX wrote prior to launch. “The Starlink satellites will be on the same suborbital trajectory as Starship and are expected to demise upon reentry approximately 20 minutes after deployment.”

Other mission objectives are fairly similar to what was demonstrated in Flight 12. Those include a relight of a Raptor engine on the upper stage during the coast phase and performing a controlled landing of the booster in the Gulf of Mexico. Neither of those objectives were able to be accomplished back in May.

SpaceX said the startup sequence of the engines on Ship 39 “caused the directional flip of the booster to be off by approximately 90 degrees.” That coupled with issues with five out of 33 sea-level engines on the booster prevented a nominal boostback burn and Booster 19 was lost prematurely.

Super Heavy Booster 20 stands ready to receive the Ship upper stage ahead of the 13th test flight of SpaceX’s Starship vehicle. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now.

“The Super Heavy on this upcoming flight has hardware modifications to improve re-light reliability along with updates to engine alarms and aborts to match the conditions seen in the multi-engine flight environment,” the company wrote.

In between these two flights of Starship Version 3, SpaceX said it also made “several hardware an operational modifications” to address issues that caused one of the three Raptor Vacuum engines to go offline less than a minute after stage separation.

SpaceX is also continuing its heat shield iterative work in order to produce a protective system that will eventually allow for rapid reuse of the upper stage.

“Multiple tiles will be attached to the metallic side of Starship’s aft flaps along with modified tiles and attachment mechanisms in the heat shield covering the aft skirt to gather flight data on different attachment options,” SpaceX said. “Finally, Starship’s heat shield will have load sensing tiles to take measurements as the vehicle experiences higher dynamic pressure on ascent than previous flights, putting added stress on the tile attachments in exchange for increased payload to orbit capability.”

Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s president and chief operating officer, told CNBC in an interview in June that the company may attempt to perform an orbital launch as soon as Flight 14, depending on how this next mission goes. She said a monthly launch cadence is the company’s target.

An artist’s concept of NASA’s Orion spacecraft docking in low Earth orbit with SpaceX’s Starship Version 3 rocket with a docking adaptor during the Artemis 3 mission. Rendering: SpaceX

Rapid learning will be critical as NASA is relying on SpaceX to get Starship to orbit sooner rather than later. A modified version of a Starship Version 3 rocket with a docking adaptor is scheduled to fly next years part of the Artemis 3 mission.

Unlike Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 2 Alpha spacecraft, the Artemis 3 crew will not enter into Starship on that flight, but rather NASA and SpaceX will focus on testing the interaction of these two vehicles when they dock.

“Software testing between spacecrafts will help demonstrate that the commercial human landing system prototypes and Orion can meet at a precise time and location in space,” NASA said in a press release on Wednesday. “When Orion docks with the Blue Moon test lander, the Orion spacecraft’s software will control the docked spacecraft. Meanwhile, the SpaceX test article will control the docked spacecraft for the second portion of the mission.”

Flight 13 is also SpaceX’s first mission for the Starship program since it became a publicly traded company on the Nasdaq. The company’s new investors will be keenly watching the performance of the launcher and launch infrastructure as SpaceX hopes to begin deploying orbital payloads later this year.

SpaceX launches 21 communications satellites for the Space Development Agency

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base to send 21 satellites from York Space Systems to orbit on behalf of the Space Development Agency. Image: SpaceX

Update July 16, 8 p.m. EDT (0000 UTC): The Space Development Agency confirms a successful deployment.

The Space Development Agency launched its third batch of operational satellites designed to improve secure communications between members of the U.S. military and its allies across the globe aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from California on Thursday.

The SDA’s constellation, the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA), consists of a series of series of interconnected satellites with varying focuses, from missile tracking to navigation. The satellites launching on Thursday afternoon are part of the communications layer, referred to as the Tranche 1 Transport Layer (T1TL).

Liftoff of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base happened at 1:32 p.m. PDT (4:32 p.m. EDT / 2032 UTC).

“The National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program team successfully executed a launch today for our Space Development Agency partners, helping build out another orbital plane for their data Transport Layer,” said U.S. Space Force Col. Ryan Hiserote, SSC SYD 80 commander, in a statement. “We look forward to continuing our close partnership to deliver additional Tranche 1 and 2 missions for SDA over the next two years as part of NSSL’s continued delivery of responsive and reliable launch for our nation.”

SpaceX launched the T1TL-E mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster B1103, making its fourth flight after previously launching Starlink 17-35, Starlink 17-42, and NROL-179.

A little more than 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1103 landed on the SpaceX droneship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You’, positioned in the Pacific Ocean. This was the 211th landing on this vessel and the 639th booster landing to date for SpaceX.

Building out the Transport Layer

There will be 154 operational satellites spread across the various layers of the Tranche 1 portion of SDA’s PWSA constellation. That breaks down to the following, according the SDA:

  • 126 Transport Layer satellites
  • 28 Tracking Layer satellites
  • 4 missile defense demonstration satellites

These satellites will be managed from Space Operations Centers located at the Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota and Redstone Arsenal in Alabama.

The SDA awarded satellite construction contracts to Lockheed Martin Space, Northrop Grumman Strategic Space Systems and York Space Systems in February 2022 to build the satellites for the T1TL portion of the constellation.

The first 21 T1TL satellites from York Space Systems launched on the T1TL-B mission on Sept. 10, 2025. That was followed by the T1TL-C mission a month later with satellites from Lockheed Martin.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base on Sept. 10, 2025. It carried 21 satellites for the Space Development Agency’s Tranche 1 Transport Layer, part of the larger Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, a low Earth orbit satellite constellation. Image: SpaceX

In a September 2025 statement to Spaceflight Now, Col. Ryan Hiserote, the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command’s (SSC) division chief in System Delta 80 Assured Access to Space, said that the order of the first three missions for the SDA’s T1TL were “interchangeable” and didn’t need to fly in alphabetical order.

“York was the first of the Tranche 1 performers to ship and launch its satellites. All spacecraft from York’s first production lot were confirmed healthy within hours of launch separation, and the constellation has since passed numerous milestones as it continues through early operations,” the company said in a June 5 press release.

“With this second production lot, York is again first among Tranche 1 primes to complete T1 spacecraft production, continuing to demonstrate the high-rate production capabilities required to support proliferated space architectures. Upon full delivery, York’s first and second production lots represent more than 40 spacecraft developed in support of the proliferated mission.”

Three of the 21 satellites from York Space Systems inside a clean room at Vandenberg Space Force Base prior to the launch of the Space Development Agency’s Trance 1 Transport Layer E mission on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. Image: York Space Systems

Launch of the T1TL-E mission was awarded to SpaceX as part of fourth order year of missions within the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 contract, which is managed by Space Systems Command. Announced in June 2023, T1TL-E was one of six missions awarded to SpaceX.

When awarded, these missions were scheduled to launch in fiscal year 2025. However, as happens with a number of NSSL missions, the payloads can be years behind schedule.

The February 2022 press release from the SDA announcing the awards for the T1TL missions stated that these satellites should be “ready for launch by September 2024.” However, the first batch didn’t fly until a year later.

Spaceflight Now reached out to the SDA to learn more about why none of the satellites manufactured by Northrop Grumman have launched to date, but we did not receive a response before publishing this article.

A batch of 21 satellites manufactured by York Space Systems are prepared for encapsulation in a SpaceX Falcon 9 payload fairing ahead of launching the Space Development Agency’s Tranche 1 Transport Layer E (T1TL-E) mission. Image: SpaceX


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Flooding Threat Continues in Portions of Texas; Poor Air Quality in the Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic