One drug future may be happening first in Estonia, hard on the Russian border.
The NYT has the story :
“We wish we still had a fentanyl problem,” said Raigo Aas, the chief prosecutor for organized crime in Estonia.
"The first new drugs to arrive, known as nitazenes, sent mortality rates skyrocketing again, proving even more addictive and harder to treat or quit. New varieties keep popping up, too, some more than 40 times stronger than fentanyl.
...
"Exceedingly powerful substances are being churned out with such speed that the agencies created to stop them are baffled, racing to keep up.
...
"Just as science has made plastics, medicines and foods phenomenally more varied and abundant, it has revolutionized illicit substances. Once grown in the soil, dependent on rain, sun and crop cycles, illicit drugs today are increasingly formulated in laboratories, with very few constraints.
"And with each iteration, the drugs grow more terrifying. It’s not just the overdoses and deaths they bring: Their incredible potency makes recovery much harder, deepening addiction and, by extension, the crisis it creates.
...
“We really thought the fentanyl period had taught us how to handle an opioid crisis,” said Kristin Mikko, a health coordinator in Estonia’s Ministry of Social Affairs. But the new drugs, she said, are “something different. They are so much more lethal.”
and this:
"Yet cychlorphine was so new at the time that it wasn’t even illegal yet in Estonia; the authorities couldn’t charge him for it. The drug didn’t become banned in Estonia until this past spring.
“It makes our work harder,” Rait Pikaro, a former drug police head, said of the constantly shifting drug landscape. “It never stops.”
In The Nationalization of American Science I warned that the Trump administration’s rewriting of the seemingly mundane Regulation for Federal Financial Assistance was a tremendous threat to America’s historically successful decentralized system of science funding. Many others are now sounding the alarm.
It’s not surprising that organizations like the AAAS oppose the rule, albeit with unusually strongly worded dissents:
This latest move is a brazen power grab by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to buck the will of Congress and the American people and will make future discoveries less likely. If this rule becomes final, Americans’ hopes for future cures, national security and economic strength will rely on the scientific sensibilities of the nation’s chief bureaucrat. Alzheimer’s disease will not be cured by a budget analyst from either political party.
But we are now seeing strong pushback from independent thinkers such as:
Grayson Logue writing at The Dispatch:
A sweeping new rule proposed by the Trump administration could remake how that money is awarded and give the president and his political appointees discretion to cancel funding or target recipients for virtually any reason—with little opportunity for recourse.
White House officials argue the new rule is necessary to assert more accountability over federal grantmaking, but observers fear the shift will expand opportunities for politicization, abuse, and even corruption for an administration that has already demonstrated a penchant for using the levers of the federal government to punish partisan enemies and reward ideological allies.
if I was trying to ruin American leadership in scientific research this is pretty much the kind of rule I would write…One of the genuine difficulties with observing the second Trump term is that the assault on state capacity and impartiality has been so multipronged that it is difficult to keep track of everything going on. But these proposed rule changes are monumental and catastrophic.
and Noah Smith:
MAGA’s attack on science is even worse than it looks…despite science’s overwhelming popularity and public trust, Trump and his administration are launching an unprecedented and devastating attack on American science — cutting funding, and forcing science projects to undergo ideological review by government commissars.
It may be that the Trump administration has pushed too far, but my real worry is that we are losing an equilibrium. Science was never completely independent of politics, of course, but even at the worst of times, funding was decentralized and the culture-war material that dominated the headlines was never more than a tiny fraction of the whole. Like an independent judiciary, independent science has been an American virtue. COVID policy, gender policy, and now the Trump administration’s weaponization of these mistakes may have destroyed that equilibrium.
As I wrote in my original post, we are adopting the loser policies of authoritarian nations but those policies are the norm elsewhere for a reason. Centralized control of science is the default because it serves the people in power of whatever party. Decentralization is the fragile exception—a historically unusual achievement that is easier to destroy than rebuild.
The post The Trump Administration’s Threat to Scientific Research appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at adults living with their parents, Samsung’s profits, Native American data centers, Puerto Rico’s electricity grid, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.
Housekeeping items:
No essay this week, but I’m working on a more involved piece about the predictability of legislation that should be out next week.
The Origins of Efficiency was chosen as one of McKinsey’s 2026 Book Recommendations.
The 21st Century Road to Housing Act becomes law after Trump declines to veto it. [NPR]
49% of adults under 30 in the US are now living with a parent, according to a recent Federal Reserve Survey. “...young people say that living at home in 2026 doesn’t carry the stigma it once did because of how unaffordable life has become. About 55% of young adults who moved back home said it was out of financial necessity, according to a spring survey by financial services firm Thrivent.” [WSJ]
Seattle has more empty downtown office space than any other major US city. [Seattle Times]
How the enormous success of TSMC has spurred development in the surrounding city of Hsinchu. “While the rest of Taiwan and much of East Asia are grappling with a sharp population decline, so many children have been born in Hsinchu in recent years that the schools cannot keep up. Public high schools in the area now admit only students with sufficiently high test scores, a practice that Ms. Lo and a group of mothers have protested. Those who do not make the cut must commute to another school district.” [NYT]
There was concern earlier this week that a New York highrise being renovated might collapse, after several columns began to severely buckle. Thankfully it looks like it’s been stabilized for now. “The massive renovation project at 219-235 E. 42nd Street — a conversion of the former Pfizer headquarters into about 1,600 apartments — was scrutinized Tuesday as construction workers had to be safely evacuated after the building began swaying. Damage to structural columns at the 21st floor is visible to the naked eye. Several nearby buildings were also evacuated as a precaution.” [CNN]
Last year New York City added more apartments — 38,682 units — than it has since 1965. This is still a pretty small number of units for a city New York’s size, to be honest: Austin added over 30,000 apartments in 2024. [WSJ]
CBRE released its 2026 look at US company headquarters relocations. California continues to lose headquarters, Texas continues to gain them. [CBRE]
Are rising insurance costs driving Americans to relocate from flood-prone areas? “High-flood-risk US counties — those classified in the top 10% for their share of homes that are very vulnerable to flooding — lost a net 63,357 domestic residents from mid-2024 to mid-2025, nearly double the outflow recorded over the previous 12-month period, according to an analysis released Wednesday by real estate brokerage Redfin. In 2024, flood-prone counties collectively posted a net population loss for the first time in five years.” [Bloomberg]
Atomic Semi, the semiconductor startup famously started by Sam Zeloof after building microchips in his parents garage, rebrands as “Fab2.” “Fab2 designs and builds every tool in its fabs in-house, from pumps, valves, and gas lines to lithography and the vacuum chambers that house it. The company assembles those components into machines, the machines into complete fabs, and then aims to mass-produce the fabs themselves. It pairs the hardware with Studio, an in-browser, collaborative EDA tool for layout, schematic, and simulation work, previously branded as Atomic Studio.” [Tom’s Hardware]
The Economist on whether China got its hands on ASML’s EUV machines. “Impossible, says ASML. Europe’s most valuable company has told American officials that it knows the exact location of all 340 EUV machines it has produced, including 26 decommissioned ones. None is in China, it says. What is more, only ASML can transport the highly sensitive machines, which it monitors online, and components that it ships are handled by ASML engineers in customers’ fabs. “ASML has never shipped an EUV machine to China, nor have we shipped to China any component, module or equipment specially designed to be used in an EUV machine,” the company says.” [The Economist]
Thanks to the huge jump in the price of memory due to the AI boom, Samsung’s profits in its chip division for 2026 will be more than the previous 40 years combined. [Toms Hardware]
An interview with some of China’s first cohort of “practical PhDs,” graduate students who develop a product instead of writing a thesis. [Nature]
After losing more than $1 billion of them to Iran, the US wants a cheaper reaper drone. [Ars Technica]
A deft bit of stage direction in Shaw’s Pygmalion, introducing the character of Mrs. Higgins, has been stuck in my head since I first read it in high school:
There is a portrait of Mrs. Higgins as she was when she defied fashion in her youth in one of the beautiful Rossettian costumes... In the corner... Mrs. Higgins, now over sixty and long past taking the trouble to dress out of the fashion, sits writing...
You have to do a double-take to appreciate the insight in this thumbnail sketch, and it is worth unpacking. Normally, we assume that it is keeping up with, and conforming to, current fashion that takes effort. As this sketch suggests, this view is mistaken, and things are rather more complicated.
We make this mistake because we often lazily conflate genuine indifference to fashion (which takes no effort) with being unfashionable (which takes as much effort as being fashionable). To be indifferent to fashion is to make essentially random sartorial choices while being oblivious to the consequences. But to be unfashionable is to earnestly misdirect effort to conform to the wrong fashion culture, such as one that’s identifiably a season or two older than the prevailing one, or one that fails subtle signaling tests while passing easier ones.
The difference between the indifferent and the unfashionable is the difference between the outlaw and the unwitting criminal. The former is simply outside the jurisdiction of a taste culture, and therefore largely invulnerable to any social sanctions it might capable of imposing. Not being invited to parties does not matter if you do not care to go to parties. The indifferent make utilitarian decisions ignoring considerations of taste. The unfashionable person though, transgresses the prevailing culture of taste, while sincerely intending and trying to conform to it, and as such, represents a policing problem for the fashionable. The choices of such individuals are what are generally labeled crimes of fashion.
Crimes of fashion that manifest through unfashionable choices are of two sorts, only one of which can be properly attributed to tastelessness, and judged and punished accordingly, with greater harshness.
The first sort is the result of simple ignorance and disconnection from the social core of a culture of taste, rather than lack of discernment or aptitude. Those who are unfashionable simply because they lack access and mentorship can acquire tasteful comportment, as was the case with Eliza Doolittle.
The second sort of crime of fashion though, is more serious: Attributable to an inability to acquire the appropriate sort of discernment and literacy despite being sufficiently immersed in the culture and materially equipped to participate in it. It is this second sort of fashion criminal who is usually charged with tastelessness, and policed and punished through particularly aggressive acts of contempt, exclusion, and humiliation.
The fashionable, the unfashionable, and the indifferent, then, are the basic types one encounters in and around a taste culture. We will refine our models of these and give them better names in a moment.
Mrs. Higgins though, belongs to none of these types.
In Pygmalion, the introductory thumbnail sketch reveals Mrs. Higgins to have been, in her youth, guilty of high treason — someone who committed transgressions against a prevailing culture of taste while being a literate insider of it.
For someone like this, conforming to prevailing fashion is an entirely effortless matter. High effort for her was associated with conscious transgression. I know nothing of women’s fashion, but fortunately ChatGPT does:
Mrs. Higgins would have come of age roughly in the 1860s and 1870s, when respectable upper-middle-class British women were expected to dress according to the highly structured fashions of the day: crinolines giving way to bustles, tightly corseted waists, elaborate trimming, and an emphasis on displaying wealth and propriety. Fashion was ornate, highly codified, and closely tied to social respectability.
The “Rossettian costume” refers to the aesthetic associated with Dante Gabriel Rossetti and the broader Pre-Raphaelite Brotherhood and Aesthetic Movement. Women in Rossetti’s paintings typically wore:
loose, flowing medieval- or Renaissance-inspired gowns,
uncorseted or lightly corseted silhouettes,
rich but subdued fabrics,
long, naturally arranged hair,
little emphasis on the latest Paris fashions.
To adopt that style in everyday life was not simply to wear different clothes; it was to signal allegiance to an artistic and intellectual subculture. It rejected mainstream Victorian ideals of propriety and commercial fashion in favor of beauty, craftsmanship, medievalism, and artistic individuality. Figures associated with the movement—including William Morris and Oscar Wilde a generation later—encouraged “artistic dress” as a critique of conventional taste.
Mrs. Higgins, who once helped pioneer a new taste culture by subverting prevailing ones, is now old enough to require neither the validation of her individual tastes that transgression can supply, nor driven by the sort of youthful sensibility that is capable of being entertained by the thrilling bloodsport of it.
Equally, her conforming to the contemporary culture of fashion in later years is not a mark of anxious attachment to it, but enlightened transcendence of it.
This is not an incidental bit of color in the characterization of Mrs. Higgins. It is integral to her role in the play, as someone who can see through her son’s theatrics and is unimpressed by them. She is more deeply fluent in the culture Henry Higgins is attempting to hack at a superficial level, and correctly predicts the outcome of the experiment he sets in motion. Most importantly, she is consistently kind and considerate towards Eliza, and acts to ease her journey as a human being rather than as an ill-conceived experiment.
Mrs. Higgins used to be a taste pioneer. Someone who helps establish new cultures of taste to challenge existing ones. But when we meet her, she has transcended the ebb and tide of taste cultures. Her capacity for kindness is rooted in this transcendence, and a mark of it since, as I will argue, cruelty is central to taste. Every kind of taste is arguably a taste for blood. Which is why taste itself must be defined in terms of a capacity for a particular kind of aesthetic risk-taking.
But I’m getting ahead of myself.
The idea of taste pioneers is what motivates the definition of taste that I want to pose and develop in this essay:
Taste is making aesthetic choices someone does not want you to make. Everything else is public relations.
The definition is a snowclone of a similar definition of journalism (journalism is printing something someone does not want you to print, everything else is public relations), and centers the role of risk in the creation, maintenance, and destruction of taste cultures.
The consequences of this definition will become clear later, but first I want to flesh out the extended universe of archetypes around it.
The “someone” in the picture is, of course, the same fashionable person who polices the unfashionable at the other end of the spectrum, imposing real penalties for crimes of fashion and tastelessness.
Their relationship to the taste pioneer though, is different. Unlike the tasteless, who are incapable of making aesthetically correct decisions by the standards of a culture of taste, and therefore can only be punished and excluded from it, the taste pioneer clearly does understand what choices they are expected to make and why. In fact they typically understand better than those who aim to police them. But they choose to make different choices anyway, driven by an original logic.
Like taste outlaws, taste pioneers are typically invulnerable to the ability of the fashion police to extract penalties. Unlike taste outlaws though, they are capable of imposing penalties — by virtue of their superior tastefulness, their choices can do more than transgress prevailing taste cultures, they can subvert and undermine them, draining social and cultural capital.
This happens most visibly through the ineffectiveness of attempted punishments. Attempts to exclude and humiliate fail. Contempt does not land. The desire to belong of promising new prospects suddenly begin to waver and reorient. Cultural talent begins to defect.
The taste pioneer is necessarily a disruptive figure. And, I will argue, the only figure who can actually be said to have taste at all.
All taste is a taste for disruption; a taste for blood. The taste pioneer aims to draw blood in their interaction with incumbent arbiters of taste.
Just as we can really only attribute tastelessness to those who demonstrate a clearly lack of aptitude, we can only really attribute taste itself to taste pioneers, whose transgressions have the power to undermine taste cultures themselves. The tasteless are judged by taste cultures. But taste cultures themselves are judged by taste pioneers.
What then, of the merely fashionable, who rehearse and reinforce established cultures of taste and ritual disputation through their behaviors, perhaps making incremental advances? Who police the unfashionable and attempt to rein in the pioneering? Are they tasteful at all?
What, if anything, can we learn from them about taste?
To hint at the answer, we can learn everything and nothing from them.
I’ll use a new, more precise term for this class. Because they model aesthetic erudition (think the comic book guy on The Simpsons or Stuart on Big Bang Theory) rather than taste proper (in the sense of my risk-centering definition above), I’ll refer to them as connoisseurs.
The universe of taste now contains four archetypes: The outlaw, the tasteless, the connoisseur, and the pioneer.
We need one more to complete the picture, the philistine.
Though I’ve been casually observing (and to some degree, trolling), the taste discourse for a decade, I’ve never had a good reason to weigh in. I do now (yes it has to do with AI, but I’ll save the details for a future article). So a good question is: What archetype do I represent?
The answer of course, is domain-specific. Depending on domain, I could reasonably be classified as outlaw, tasteless, connoisseur, or pioneer. For the domains of taste that most interest me, the last three categories mostly suffice.
Most of these are domains of technical taste, of the sort that leads to uncannily good decisions in matters of engineering design, scientific investigation, or mathematical argumentation. In some of these kinds of domains, I’d self-classify as moderately tasteful and capable of occasional flashes of pioneering taste. In others, I’d self classify as tasteless but interested enough to tolerate the embarrassment and endure the punishments imposed by connoisseurs.
Many other domains I care about are domains of managerial and organizational taste. In these, I’d say I’m significantly more tasteful, and capable of assisting pioneers, though I lack the energy to do any pioneering myself. That’s why I’ve been able to make a living as a management consultant.
Fortunately for my sanity, these domains have been mostly out-of-scope in the taste culture wars, perhaps because the artistic and aesthetic aspects of these domains are neither visible, nor interesting, to outsiders. As a result, the taste culture wars largely revolve around explicitly artistic domains like literature, music, fashion, or film. Cultures of taste everybody participates in.
It was the last of these that was my entry point into early taste discourse a decade ago, long before it become the subject of culture wars. Around that time, on Twitter, I used to enjoy trolling banter with a musician named Gabe Duquette, who was developing a serious theory of taste. I did not, and still do not, understand it. I believe it involved some notion of compression, which was a popular lens on the matter back then.
Gabe was (and presumably remains) a cinephile who was offended by my loudly proclaimed and decidedly middlebrow screen media tastes. Theatrically offended of course, not really offended. We were all doing elaborate bits on Twitter back then (the actual taste culture we were enacting was of course that of Twitter itself).1
I was, in his words, guilty of neither indifference, nor tastelessness, but of “consuming pablum, knowing it was pablum.” He presumably reached that conclusion because I had demonstrated some aptitude for screen-media connoisseurship (my best known work, after all, is an analysis of a TV show), but refused his sincere offer to help identify and refine my tastes. He offered to guide me through a carefully crafted learning curve of movie watching to profile my uncultivated tastes, and improve my discernment and judgment in picking good things to watch to feed them.
He was perfectly right. When it comes to screen media, I did (and still do) consume pablum knowing it is pablum. What does that make me?
I do, in fact, possess a rudimentary, uncultivated ability to tell good and bad cinema and television apart, in the sense cinephiles would like everybody to. And I do have the aptitude to become a non-embarrassing member of cinephile circles. But unfortunately for cinephiles who might hope to civilize me, I simply do not care enough to put in the effort. That particular domain does not interest me enough. I am not indifferent in my choices, merely barbaric. And I am that way because cinephile milieus do not play a significant enough role in my life that I can be embarrassed by my uncritical preference for (say) Marvel movies over those of Martin Scorsese, or for the Christopher Nolan Batman over the Tim Burton Batman.
While I occasionally offer shallowly developed drive-by arguments on such matters (such as the argument that Kevin Feige’s orchestration of a 40+ movie universe is pioneering taste in a meta-medium that Scorsese does not appreciate), I don’t press such matters. I do not have enough of a stake in this particular culture of taste to pursue such arguments to the interesting conclusions that undoubtedly exist.
To engage in the bloodsport of taste cultures, you have to have stakes.
For me, screen media are about relaxing and unwinding with my brain switched off. If I am in a high-energy mood, I tackle difficult history books or tinker ineptly in my workshop. I’m willing to draw blood or bleed in those domains. But I don’t watch demanding movies or subject myself to black-and-white remedial education.
This is not a particularly uncommon relationship to a culture of taste, and I am sure most of you, like me, have many such connoisseur-offending relationships.
For example, I have moderately refined coffee tastes, but I am also fine drinking random instant coffee. I drink coffee primarily to manage my energy and mood with caffeine. The taste is secondary. Similarly, I can appreciate an elevated meal at a fine-dining restaurant, but I’m also fine eating whatever when I’m just hungry, which is mostly what I do. I’m not a foodie, but that doesn’t mean I’m either tasteless or indifferent when it comes to food, or itching to pioneer new culinary tastes. When it comes to sartorial taste, I’m probably borderline tasteless, but not to an embarrassing degree. I can struggle through an evening in a suit if someone really needs me to.
Perhaps most offensive in my case, I can appreciate, and on occasion produce, tasteful and even well-crafted prose, but have been gleefully producing and consuming AI generated texts, heedless of the damage it might do to my palette or the palettes of readers. If this were a serious literary rebellion, I might have been able to claim I’m on a taste-pioneering journey. I’m not. I simply don’t care enough about the craft and taste culture of reading and writing, even though I do so much of both.
This kind of posture, I’ll argue, is the most common one in any taste culture. Most of us are this way in relation to most taste cultures we participate in, much to the dismay of connoisseurs who earnestly beg the rest of us to try harder to do better.
What archetype does this type of posture represent?
In the case of screen media, I am clearly not an neutrally indifferent outlaw, since I do discriminate and hold preferences, and actually consume a lot of the medium. I am clearly not a low criminal guilty of tastelessness either— I do know better, and occasionally, but not exclusively, consume better. I am clearly not a connoisseur either — I haven’t put in the work to convert basic aptitude into cultivated discernment.
And I am certainly not a taste pioneer capable of high treason and cultural rebellion in pursuit of a more fundamental tastefulness.
In this domain, I’m a cultural alien whose choices reflect capped attention and significant competing allegiances to other taste domains, in which I visibly invest more energy and attention.
By my very presence in a culture of taste with such a posture, I point to the existence of competing cultures of taste, and the possibility of valuing them more highly. It is a dilutive, market-making relationship, which lowers the intensity of the culture’s sense of its own importance in the larger scheme of things. I help price the priceless, and create liquidity where connoisseurs hope to create and defend solidity.
A good word for this is philistine.
A philistine is someone whose offensiveness to a culture of taste is a side effect of their competing allegiances rather than a central feature of their identity. Someone whose lack of taste is wilful but incidental to their self-conception, rather than innocent, unwitting and central to their self-conception. A matter of casually offensive distorted preferences rather than either genuine indifference or committed rebellion.
The outlaw phones it in but does not intend to offend. The taste pioneer defines themselves in opposition to a prevailing taste culture via heresy and heterodoxy.
The philistine indulges in the cultural equivalent of drive-by shootings.
In the Biblical usage, the Philistines were a foreign tribe — the ones in the David vs. Goliath story (Goliath being either a metaphor for a numerically superior force or an actual giant). In modern usage, the term indicates wilfully obnoxious tastelessness. In both cases, the charge of barbarism is something of a cope (presumably the historical Philistines had cultures of taste around matters they did care about, such as seafaring and warfare).
These then, are the archetypes of the theory of taste I want to offer here. To summarize before we proceed, we have:
The outlaw — who does not care and makes indifferent but not intentionally hostile choices in aesthetic decisions the taste culture cares about
The tasteless — who cares, but makes the wrong choices, either through lack of access and education, or lack of fundamental aptitude, representing lesser and greater crimes of taste respectively
The connoisseur — who has cultivated an ability to make the right choices, either effortlessly through innate aptitude and being born to the culture, or through effortful cultivation
The taste pioneer — who has cultivated an exceptional ability to make new choices, and has both more taste than the culture can police, and the daring to take risks with it
The philistine — who makes choices that serve an alien cultural logic, and cultivates and exhibits casually offensive tastes that serve to price what the taste culture presumes to be priceless, in broader society
Each of these archetypes has an associated narrative in relation to the evolution of a taste culture. They enter and exit (or stay) at different phases. They serve different functions in the lifecycle of the taste cultures. The play different roles in determining the ultimate historical significance of a particular taste culture — whether it will come to be seen as an important chapter in a larger historical tradition, or an embarrassing and campy sidequest in the story of civilization.
It would take several more essays to work through these narratives and the life cycles of taste cultures. It is the sort of speculative armchair sociology I used to enjoy doing but no longer have the energy for. Long-time readers may notice that the setup here is similar to the setup of the Gervais Principle, a series in which I devoted 5 of 6 parts to exploring the trajectories and inter-relationships of 3 archetypes of organizational life. There is even a rough mapping here — the taste pioneers correspond to the sociopaths, the connoisseurs and tasteless together constitute the clueless, and the philistines and outlaws together correspond to the losers. This is a structural mapping though, and none of the connotations carry over. The model differs in several important ways. Most importantly, unlike economic loserdom in the Gervais theory, which stings in real ways for all, regardless of compensatory value elsewhere, what philistines and outlaws “lose” in a taste culture is only valuable within the taste culture, with no particular value or liquidity beyond.
I am not going to attempt a full Gervais-style theory here, not least because I lack suitable fodder comparable to The Office (and no, I’m not taking suggestions). David Chapman wrote something like the kind of treatment this calls for, in Geeks, Mops, and Sociopaths, though focused on the dynamics of extraction and selling-out rather than taste itself.
In this essay, I want to skip past those interesting sociological and anthropological questions to the phenomenology of taste itself.
The philistine represents a very different sort of threat to the connoisseur than the other three classes, all of which either validate, or at least do not directly threaten, the culture’s sense of its own value.
Cultures of taste tend to be totalizing. To the cinephile, cinema is an absolutely important cultural activity that is never appreciated enough. The true cinephile believes that as much as possible of societal surpluses ought to be deployed towards making more tasteful cinema and teaching more people to appreciate it.
The philistine is the human face of the political war the connoisseur must ceaselessly wage, to convince the rest of the world to value the culture of taste at its own estimation. He serves an ever-present reminder that the connoisseur’s entire identity is contingent and subject to dilution to nothingness. That other ways of life are not just possible, but might possible offer richer modes of meaning and fulfilment. That those other ways might ultimately starve the connoisseur’s world and life of the cultural energy it needs to survive.
The taste pioneer at least represents a resurrection and continuation of a taste culture in altered form. The philistine represents the possibility that the taste culture might dissipate into irrelevance and go extinct.
Why does this matter? What do you care if most of the rest of the world finds meaning and fulfilment differently from you?
It matters because we like to believe that we represent a necessary sort of human being, even if we are all individually mortal. That our cultural allegiances matter beyond ourselves. The tastes we cultivate are our bids for immortality.
Here, it is useful to construct a pyramid model of how the self evolves as it cultivates literacy and competence in a particular culture of taste, something like a Maslow’s hierarchy of aesthetic needs.
This is not meant to be a particularly clever or original diagram, so I hope it is mostly self-explanatory.
Much of taste discourse today concerns the bottom two levels, and these are the levels that connoisseurs typically inhabit, and where AIs currently threaten to compete.
The three levels above typically involve some degree of risk, and are the levels at which taste pioneering operates and the mechanics are those of a social bloodsport.
The final level, the one occupied perhaps by Mrs. Higgins, represents transcendence of the taste culture.
Let us work through the first two levels.
Discernment and attunement are obviously preconditions to any praxis of taste. You cannot form conscious opinions about things you do not even notice, and you cannot care about differences if you cannot detect the underlying distinctions. Cultivating an increasing resolution of attention is table stakes in any culture of taste. While rare, there can be arrested development at this level — obsessive-compulsive attention to taxonomizing and distinguishing, accompanied by inability to make choices or be indifferent to anything. A kind of taste paralysis.
Indifference and attention allocation, equally obviously, are central to any expression of taste. You cannot watch every movie, listen to every song, or read every book. To choose is to choose indifference to some distinctions, and care about others. In a trivial sense, any two movies are going to be different. In a more meaningfl sense, some of those differences are only going to be evident at a given level of attunement and discernment. Of those, you will care about some, but not others. To do justice to some, you must do at least ritual violence to others.
It is at this point, give or take some details, that much of taste discourse tends to stop. And certainly there is a great deal to say about these two levels. But if this is as far as you go in your taste journey, you have not yet explored taste per se. You have merely internalized a grammar of taste set up by others as a sort of artificial physics, and the rules of that game are indistinguishable from the rules of games designed by nature. Which is why this xkcd (I swear I didn’t remember it was titled “Connoisseur” before getting to this point in the writing of this essay) is so funny.
It is worth noting that though connoisseurs disagree and argue, that is the point. They do not actually make decisions their peers do not want them to make. There is no actual risk; no real costs. There is merely the pleasure of endless ritualized disagreement. This is not yet a social bloodsport.
So what does it take for a taste culture to escape the reductio ad absurdum of the Joe-Biden-sandwich-eating endgame?
It takes people who refuse to be locked up in a box, and insist on situating the taste culture in a wider world, and forcing an engagement between the two. People who do not flinch from the question of whether photographs of Joe Biden eating a sandwich actually deserve attention. Taste pioneers who can revalue what the philistines devalue, and rebuild taste cultures after their depredations.
If reality has a surprising amount of detail, and you can nerd out over anything to arbitrary depths, what distinguishes worthwhile and worthless ways of allocating attention and indifference? Asking this question is the first step towards becoming a taste pioneer.
The answer, I think, has to do with the potential for high-social-risk intersubjective self-authorship a domain offers. As the xkcd cartoon suggests, any subject can be arbitrarily deep, but once you add risk, real distinctions emerge.
Consider two examples of connoisseurship:
Two dinosaur fans, with equally attuned discernment on saurian matters, argue about the fidelity of two dinosaur representations in Jurassic Park that the rest of us can barely tell apart.
Two jazz fans, with equally attuned discernment on jazz matters, argue about the relative merits of two musicians that the rest of us can barely tell apart.
In the first case, the ground truth for the argument is derived from scientific facts — whether or not dinosaurs have feathers, whether T. Rex ran fast or slow, whether velociraptors were in fact that big (they weren’t) and whether they hunted in packs.
In the second case, the ground truth for the argument is derived from the tradition of taste itself, but to the extent you don’t challenge received authority, it might as well be a matter of objective facts. Instead of poring over fossilized remains, you pore over seminal texts. Instead of systematic empiricism, you practice systematic hermeneutics. Instead of submitting to the authority of experiments and data, you submit to the authority of authority figures.
While there is some room for taste, stylization of facts, and appeals to authority when it comes to beliefs about dinosaurs, dinosaur fandom offers less room for self-authorship than music. This is simply because you can, in fact, become an authoritative source of musical tastes. But you cannot become a new set of dinosaur facts. Taste pioneering is possible in music in a way it isn’t in dinosaur fandom. Fewer constraining facts equals more room for humans.
So when it comes to music, you can go further, because the truths about music are truths about the human psyche and how it can be transformed through the creation and consumption of music. One sign that this is so is that a great deal more social risk accompanies musical tastes than dinosaur tastes.
The journey beyond connoisseurship, and into taste pioneering, begins when you realize that some cultures of taste are neither objective, nor subjective, but intersubjective. And because they are intersubjective, your self-authorship can influence others the way empirical facts can in more objective domains. And that exercising this influence will involve taking on risk.
Few venture into taste pioneering, however, which is why it yields a good definition of taste. Making choices that connoisseurs do not want you to make takes courage.
Much of what passes for taste discourse is really restricted to what we might call aesthetic erudition, which rehearses and models the patterns of judgment of a mature taste culture through scholarship and maintenance of boundaries between esoteric and exoteric. This is the substance of connoisseurship. While I do not in general like Straussian-Girardian frames, they are peculiarly well adapted to thinking about how connoisseurs curate tastes.
In fact, taste cultures are likely the only class of phenomenology to which Straussian-Girardian frames can be usefully applied. Connoisseurs are, in a Straussian reading, scholars of intersubjectivity induced by pioneering greatness. Stewards of mimesis and esoteric-exoteric boundaries, and keepers of hermeneutic rather than empirical truths (and yes, wine, as much as poetry, can be understood as comprising texts produced by authority figures for suitably cultivated tastes, rather than empirical realities). Connoisseurs are at once the scientists and inertial masses responding to forces set in motion by taste pioneers.
This is one reason taste cultures, unlike reality, famously have a conservative bias. If a taste culture goes long enough without disruption by a sufficiently disruptive taste pioneer, it will ossify into a tradition. Connoisseurs will evolve into a priesthood, punishments for tastelessness will increase in severity, slowly choking off the supply of fresh creative minds, and the culture will begin to decay, holding on to fading memories of liveness.
Aesthetics, as I once noted, is the entry drug of conservatism. And it isn’t just the tedious tradarch posters I’m talking about here.
Let me venture a strong statement: The connoisseur, ultimately, has no autonomous creative agency, and therefore cannot express taste as such. They can only acquire a particular learnable discernment, and get to a kind of mimetic subjectivity first established as possible by a taste pioneer.
What they visibly practice is a craft that is impressive only insofar as it reliably rehearses and reproduces patterns of judgment we already know, by some other means, to be correct within a given taste culture. It is not an art, either in consumption or production.
This is why there is usually a culture of competitive discernment to first qualify connoisseurs on the basis of objectively determinable competence, (can you identify this wine? this raga?), and then on mutual agreement (does your ranking of these wines meaningfully correlate to those of Wine Spectator? Can you distinguish more and less celebrated exponents of a raga?)
What is notable about such tests of connoisseurship is that they are not tests of individual tastes, but of ability to auditably internalize the default tastes of an entire inherited culture of taste.
The taste pioneer, however, can and does go beyond. A good example of this was Andy Kauffman, who famously did a series of deliberately bad stand-up impressions in his act, topped off with a pitch-perfect impression of Elvis Presley. The act left the audience first annoyed and contemptuous, then speechless. The message was clear — I understand and can express your tastes better than you can, but I have better tastes, fuck you.
Kauffman explored realms of taste that were clearly beyond the culture of taste he was part of, and helped move that culture to those new realms. That’s taste pioneering.
Levels 3-5 of my pyramid chart this sort of journey into taste pioneering.
Transgression and social risk: You must make decisions connoisseurs cannot help but disagree with, because they do not own their own tastes. They merely represent the tastes of a taste culture.
Aesthetic self-authorship: Connoisseurs are, to varying degrees, automatons whose behaviors are only legitimate to the extent they are predetermined by the taste culture. Taste pioneers discover and model new modes of discernment and attunement, responding to phenomenology beyond the walls of the culture. The cultivation and expression of taste becomes a mode of self-authorship rather than a mode of belonging. They are the living proofs of their tastefulness.
Rightness surplus: Taste pioneers, like good leaders of any sort (per Amazon’s famous leadership principles) are right a lot. But what they are right about is a subtle thing. While there can be particular crude signs like commercial or popular success, these can easily be (or interpreted to be) signs of degeneracy. But what they are really right about is where generativity and liveness are to be found. They declare: we must take fashion/art/cinema/music in this direction rather than that one, for that way lies exhaustion and death, while this way lies new life.
At this point, we have something like a theory of creative destruction of taste cultures.
We can think in terms of the Wardley-Cringley pioneer-settler-town-planner model, and draw Wardley maps to capture the evolutionary dynamics of a particular taste culture.
We can talk about how alive or dead it is, what innovations are being introduced by taste pioneers, how notions of sacred and profane are changing, and what elements of taste are becoming irrelevant and commoditized through automation.
I’ll leave all that as suggested exploration directions.
Mrs. Higgins in Pygmalion transcends taste culture. She occupies the top of the pyramid, too old to take the trouble to dress out of fashion. She predicts and interprets her son, Henry Higgins’ misadventure for him, and helps protect Eliza from the fallout.
To transcend a taste culture is to no longer rely on it for self-authorship. To no longer be defined by conformity or transgression. To no longer be defined by the cruelties of exclusion, contempt, humiliation, heresy, and heterodoxy. To no longer be defined by a taste for social blood.
To transcend a taste culture is to evolve with it without being defined by it. To inhabit a self that can serve as a measure of the world rather than being measured by it, and give itself permission to be kind, regardless of whether or not that is a tasteful choice.
The instinct to beauty — which is another possible definition of taste — is always also an instinct to cruelty. Cruelty to others, yes, but also cruelty to oneself, in the form of limiting self-conceptions.
Kindness is, perhaps, the ultimate act of tastelessness. It is a taste for life itself, rather than for blood. Which is why it is the mark of transcendence of taste itself, and paradoxically, the ultimate sort of tastefulness too.
I got to thinking about taste, as many have in recent years, by way of thinking about how to teach AIs to have taste. Much of what we can do today is teach AIs connoisseurship. To the extent my theory of connoisseurship as a kind of learned automaticity is correct, it should be entirely trainable. A mimetic subjectivity is reducible to objectively observable behavior. We can likely create zombie connoisseurs as good as any human ones, so long as we can replicate sensory discernment. There is nothing uniquely human about discernment and attunement. The connoisseur is ultimately a Large Taste Model equipped with special sensors. The self they have cultivated can be distilled into model weights.
But to actually teach AIs taste, we must first introduce them to aesthetic risk, both social and material. To the costs of choices someone does not want them to make.
What kinds of risk? And what sorts of costs? And imposed by whom?
I’ll explore these in a future post.
Gabe eventually decided Twitter was “actually bad” (iirc he pioneered the briefly popular usage of “actually good” and “actually bad” that shaped early taste discourse) and disappeared. I don’t know what he’s up to now. But he did help me refine my theory of taste.
The author is Bob Harris, and the subtitle is The Life and Times of Lord Daer 1763-1794. Who is Lord Daer? Don’t worry about that! So many books on the Scottish Enlightenment cover one particular thing, but somehow fail to give the reader a proper sense of life on the ground. I found this is the best book I know for actually communicating what it was like to live during, and participate in, the Scottish Enlightenment. Maybe to achieve that end it is necessary to focus on the life of a figure who was less than totally famous? Definitely recommended, this book should be better known.
The post *A Tale of Three Cities* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
That is the title of a recent book by Beatrice Magistro. Some key results are:
Economic knowledge consistently predicts higher support for welfare-enhancing policies (Eurozone membership, free trade, and EU immigration), independent on whether individuals stand to gain or lose initially from globalization. This challenges conventional self-interest accounts and instead highlights the role of economic knowledge — and potentially time preferences — in shaping globalization attitudes.
Economic knowledge also predicts a lower discount rate, even after adjusting for years of education.
I would say that over the years I have altered my perspective a bit on these issues. I used to think these factors were correlated, in large part, through a kind of wisdom. I now think that more of the effect, however much I may sympathize with it, runs through sociological expectation and perceived obligation, combined with conformity and signaling pressures.
The post *Who Thinks Like an Economist?* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
We are Rebecca, Max, and Aakrith. We are researchers at The Mercatus Center, a research organization dedicated to classical liberal ideas. Rebecca is a philosopher, Max is an economist, and Aakrith is a political scientist. Together, we are the Space Team, and this is our Substack.
We’re here to persuade you that space policy is increasingly important. And that getting space policy right offers humankind astonishing opportunities. In particular, we’re currently thinking hard about innovation, competition, federalism, property rights, and life in space.
Here is the link.
The post New space policy Substack from Mercatus appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Up early and to the Dock, and with the Storekeeper and other officers all the morning from one office to another. At noon to the Hill-house in Commissioner Pett’s coach, and after seeing the guard-ships, to dinner, and after dining done to the Dock by coach, it raining hard, to see “The Prince” launched, which hath lain in the Dock in repairing these three years. I went into her and was launched in her. Thence by boat ashore, it raining, and I went to Mr. Barrow’s, where Sir J. Minnes and Commissioner Pett; we staid long eating sweetmeats and drinking, and looking over some antiquities of Mr. Barrow’s, among others an old manuscript Almanac, that I believe was made for some monastery, in parchment, which I could spend much time upon to understand. Here was a pretty young lady, a niece of Barrow’s, which I took much pleasure to look on.
Thence by barge to St. Mary Creek; where Commissioner Pett (doubtful of the growing greatness of Portsmouth by the finding of those creeks there), do design a wett dock at no great charge, and yet no little one; he thinks towards 10,000l. And the place, indeed, is likely to be a very fit place, when the King hath money to do it with.
Thence, it raining as hard as it could pour down, home to the Hillhouse, and anon to supper, and after supper, Sir J. Minnes and I had great discourse with Captain Cox and Mr. Hempson about business of the yard, and particularly of pursers’ accounts with Hempson, who is a cunning knave in that point.
So late to bed and, Mr. Wayth being gone, I lay above in the Treasurer’s bed and slept well.
About one or two in the morning the curtains of my bed being drawn waked me, and I saw a man stand there by the inside of my bed calling me French dogg 20 times, one after another, and I starting, as if I would get out of the bed, he fell a-laughing as hard as he could drive, still calling me French dogg, and laid his hand on my shoulder. At last, whether I said anything or no I cannot tell, but I perceived the man, after he had looked wistly upon me, and found that I did not answer him to the names that he called me by, which was Salmon, Sir Carteret’s clerk, and Robt. Maddox, another of the clerks, he put off his hat on a suddaine, and forebore laughing, and asked who I was, saying, “Are you Mr. Pepys?” I told him yes, and now being come a little better to myself, I found him to be Tom Willson, Sir W. Batten’s clerk, and fearing he might be in some melancholy fit, I was at a loss what to do or say. At last I asked him what he meant. He desired my pardon for that he was mistaken, for he thought verily, not knowing of my coming to lie there, that it had been Salmon, the Frenchman, with whom he intended to have made some sport. So I made nothing of it, but bade him good night, and I, after a little pause, to sleep again, being well pleased that it ended no worse, and being a little the better pleased with it, because it was the Surveyor’s clerk, which will make sport when I come to tell Sir W. Batten of it, it being a report that old Edgeborough, the former Surveyor, who died here, do now and then walk.
Cryan.com:
The “View as Buttons” option was a distinctive feature of the Macintosh OS 9 Finder. It allowed users to view the contents of a folder as clickable buttons, each representing a file or application. This view was particularly useful for quickly accessing frequently used programs and documents.
I totally forgot this view existed, despite using Mac OS 9 for many years, because I never used it myself. This didn’t just turn apps into buttons with tiled square backgrounds — it turned every item in the file system into a button. I was reminded of it by a reader who used it in theater class in school to turn a folder full of sound files into, effectively, a soundboard app. Cool.
So many of the best UI ideas are little things like this. Sure, most Mac users didn’t want or need this view. But for those who did, they could do something cool with it.
“Yeah, who’s this?”
“You know who this is.”
“Yes I do, yes I do. I sent a guy to deliver the package ... he didn’t call. Is everything alright?”
“Tell you what. Forget the money.”
Drew Pusateri, director of communications at OpenAI, on Twitter/X (or XCancel):
Our statement in response to this suit: We have no interest in other companies’ trade secrets. We remain focused on building innovative technology that empowers people everywhere.
Let’s say I think you stole my wallet. I approach a police officer and tell him my suspicion and describe the evidence that makes me think you have my wallet in your pocket. “Is that his wallet in your pocket?” the cop asks.
“I have no interest in other people’s wallets” would be a rather curious answer.
Alex Heath, on Threads:
At WWDC, Apple execs I met with were ice-cold when I asked about their OpenAI partnership.
Now we know why: Apple just sued OpenAI for allegedly stealing trade secrets related to consumer hardware (Apple and OAI senior leaders are in Sun Valley this week. Yikes!)
I noticed the same ice-cold reaction to my questions about ChatGPT and Siri. (In fact, I think Heath and I even talked about it together when we bumped into each other at the end of the day on Monday during WWDC week.) At the time I took it as Apple execs not wanting to distract from the fact that Siri AI with Apple Intelligence, with no third-party plug-in, was truly competitive. But in hindsight their coolness, I think, was about this.
There was no response like, say, “We think ChatGPT is great and we’re happy to keep it available in iOS 27 as an option for our customers who love that experience, but the new Siri AI truly stands on its own.” That’s a typical Apple answer. But what they actually said was just more like “The ChatGPT extension remains available.” I didn’t think much of it at the time but now it stands out.
The AP:
Fellow passengers pulled back a man who was partially sucked out of a dislodged airplane window on Friday, a few minutes after takeoff on a flight from northern Greece to Germany. The plane subsequently returned to the airport in Greece.
The incident happened on a morning flight from the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki to Memmingen, near Munich, operated by Malta Air, a subsidiary of Ryanair, Europe’s largest budget carrier.
Frank Landymore, writing for Futurism:
Look past its gaudiness, though, and you’ll notice some things that’re a little off in the finer details. The talons are horribly deformed and shaped differently from each other. The entire legs are uneven, too, and the base of them are represented as a strange conglomeration of blobs, which are also inconsistent. In fact, the whole thing is slightly asymmetrical. The wings have an uneven number of feathers. The two olive branches — another error in itself, because the eagle is supposed to be clutching a bundle of arrows in its right-side talon — have differing numbers of leaves. And the shield only has eleven stripes, as opposed to the thirteen that the actual Great Seal is supposed to feature.
The fourth star is crooked. What a mess. Perfect logo for Trump Airport.
OpenAI Help Center, “Where Work and Codex are available”:
Work is available on ChatGPT web and mobile for eligible paid plans. Work is also available in the ChatGPT desktop app when included for your plan and workspace.
Work on web and mobile runs in the cloud. Work in the desktop app can also use local files and desktop apps with your permission. At launch, cloud Work conversations do not appear in desktop Work; desktop Work threads and local files remain on that computer.
Codex is available as a mode in the ChatGPT desktop app. It can work with local folders, repositories, terminals, and developer tools. Codex is not a selectable mode on web or mobile. You can access supported desktop Codex tasks from the Remote tab in the ChatGPT mobile app, but those tasks do not become web or mobile chat history.
These three paragraphs, from OpenAI’s own Help Center, sound more like a critic’s scathing review of what’s wrong with the new ChatGPT “super” app than a guide to how to use it.
Benedict Evans with a succinct review on Threads:
Wow, what a total mess.
What is the difference between a project, a task and a chat?
Why did chats get a crappy floating window but tasks and projects don’t?
Why does choosing ‘plugins’ get me ‘templates’?
Am I not allowed to finish ‘setup’ if I don’t use Slack or Google Drive?
I forget how I made the Setup dickbar disappear despite my not using Slack or Google Drive. It was confusing.
It is sometimes observed that in companies dominated by internal politics, their shipped product (and public keynotes) reflect the company’s org chart. That’s never been truer than with the new ChatGPT app. OpenAI’s internal org chart is a complete disorganized mess. This new app perfectly reflects that.
The old ChatGPT app was focused. That’s the app that still ships for mobile (which includes iPad, which tells you whether OpenAI thinks iPad is a real computer or a big iPhone), and is, for some Mac users, left installed on their systems as “ChatGPT Classic”. The new app is an incredibly confusing sloppy mess. At a glance it looks like a polished app. But the UI is just slop. It has the veneer of a polished app without actually being organized or structured or labeled in ways that add clarity and coherence. It’s playing dress-up as a big-boy app. My understanding from people adjacent to OpenAI is that the company’s senior executives are singularly consumed with FOMO obsession regarding Anthropic, and the only real clout within the company belongs to the AI researchers. Not product designers or app craftspeople. What the researchers say goes, and with this update, we can see their level of taste in app design.
The app icon for the new “super” app should be the Homer.
Fred Vogelstein (Om’s partner at Crazy Stupid Tech):
We met a week later at his outdoor office — a bench in SF’s South Park. He told me that he was going emeritus at True Ventures, the VC firm, and that he was going to spend more of his time writing.
It was awesome to see him. Sitting on a bench with Om could be quasi religious. He talked so softly and deliberately that it forced you to slow down, lean in and forget about everything else.
What became clear was that we actually saw the world the same way. We didn’t agree what Wired should be doing about it. But we did agree on this: While everyone was fixated on big tech, an explosion in tech innovation not seen in a generation was taking place. We both agreed that not enough people were writing about it.
“Maybe we should do something together then,” I said.
So saddened to hear about @om. His writing was one of the reasons I went into tech journalism. Right out of college, I was working at a PR agency and started reading his site. It inspired me to start blogging.
Years later, he tried to recruit me. Even after I went elsewhere, he’d send me notes telling me how proud he was of my work. He’d often review my reviews, so here’s mine of him: Generous with his time. Honest with his feedback. Endlessly encouraging to those coming up behind him.
Very sad to hear about the passing of @om. He shared two lasting lessons with me: the first when I was a cub tech reporter at the SF Chronicle; he interviewed me for a job but told me he didn’t think I could hack it at GigaOm because newspaper writers were too slow. It taught me that I needed to get out of print media ASAP.
The second was many years later, when I was having a drink with him and some other reporters. We asked him for advice. “Never name a blog after yourself,” he said. RIP
One day on Twitter I got a DM from someone with the handle @om.
“I don’t know who this is,” I thought, “but damn that is a great handle!”
Then I peaked at the follower count: over 1 million!
“WTF? Who is this???” I thought.
I’d never — then or since — been contacted by someone with such a high profile online.
How was I even on this person’s radar?
Om seemingly read everything.
Jason Hiner, in a post on LinkedIn:
This is the opening anecdote from “Chapter Six: The Blogger” from my 2016 book, Follow the Geeks, co-authored with Lyndsey Gilpin. Om once told me that “For three years, it was every day a rejection” as he tried to break into tech journalism. This was how he finally broke through.
David Churbuck checked his voicemail. There was a message from someone looking for a job.
Because of the guy’s thick Indian accent, David could barely make out what he was saying, except that he worked for a wire service down on Wall Street and was a big Forbes fan. The guy heard that Forbes was going to be one of the first media companies to launch its magazine on the web and he wanted to come help.
David ignored the message. He had a small team and hardly any budget.
Then he got a fax. It was from this guy, explaining why he was a perfect fit to join the team.
The next day, the guy left another message. If David would just give him a call, it would be great to talk with him. He wouldn’t regret it.
Ignore.
The following day, he left another. Whatever time limit there was for voicemails, this guy always used up every minute.
Still, David ignored it.
And then the guy started getting creative.
[...]
One of the journalists, Michael Noer, said half jokingly, “Just call the guy in!” So, partly out of admiration, and partly out of pure morbid curiosity, David called him back.
One interview. Fifteen minutes. That was all it took for David to hire Om Malik.
“They do not sell themselves”, Om told me in a separate story from that same time in his life.
Hiner made the entire chapter available to read as a handsome PDF. It’s so good, and so utterly Om. It’s a crackerjack good read about the very early “WWW” days of the web. A bit:
Om is charming and disarming, forceful and accommodating. He has an easy smile, a quiet, melodic voice, and a handsome face. Once he opens his mouth, it’s obvious how much he reads and how thirsty he is to learn. It’s rare to meet someone who is ready to debate you on almost any topic, but who’s also genuinely curious about your life and your opinion. It all makes the burly journalist one of the most huggable people on Earth. That’s what David was up against when he met Om. He didn’t stand a chance.
“It was destiny,” said David, with a self-deprecating laugh. “It was total destiny.”
Om’s close friend, photographer Christopher Michel, published “Om the Great”, an enormous gallery of portraits of him. Here’s just one of hundreds:
Lastly, here’s a story from Andrew Sasaki, which he sent me by email, and I’m reproducing with his permission. It’s the perfect Om story:
I met Om briefly at a tech event in NYC around 2008 or so. He was talking with a friend of mine, and when I walked up he introduced himself: “Hi, I’m Om.”
“‘Om’ like ‘Om Malik’?” I asked.
This amused him greatly.
“Yes, exactly like Om Malik”, he said.
A couple of years later the iPad had just launched, and I saw my friend again at another industry event. I asked him a question related to the unprecedented development effort we were already seeing around the new platform that didn’t yet have a single compelling use case.
“You know who I bet would know about that? Om Malik”, he said, and gave me Om’s email address.
I hesitated to bother Om, but eventually reached out with my question. “I don’t know if you remember me, but we met a couple of years ago, and…” blah blah blah.
Naturally, there was no answer. Why would there be? He doesn’t know me from Adam, and he’s Om Fucking Malik.
Except there was an answer about 4 days later. Om started off by apologizing for the delay in responding, but he had taken the time to research his answer before writing to me. And of course, his answer was thoughtful, insightful, and absolutely correct. I was gobsmacked at the generosity he had shown replying to someone he didn’t even know. He gave no indication that he even remembered me until his signature line:
“Exactly Like Om Malik”
Mark Gurman, reporting for Bloomberg (paywalled, alas):
Apple was quickly alarmed by OpenAI’s recruiting drive, which included poaching senior hardware and design leaders and ravaging several teams across its engineering organizations. The practice continued as recently as June, when OpenAI lured away Apple’s smart glasses chief. That executive, Paul Meade, was quickly shown the door at Apple and not given the opportunity to stay on for a transition period, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Regarding Tang Tan, who is at the center of Apple’s lawsuit:
Tan was famous for taking risks at Apple and “flying very close to the sun” during his 25-year career, according to someone who worked with him. “Tang is well known for moving fast, playing fast and loose and breaking things,” said the person, who asked not to be identified while discussing former colleagues.
Gurman broke the story of Meade leaving Apple for OpenAI on June 26, writing then:
Meade’s departure is a blow to the iPhone maker. He has led hardware engineering for the Vision Pro headset — once seen as Apple’s next major computing platform — for seven years. Apple and OpenAI spokespeople declined to comment. He has also been responsible for the development of display-free Apple smart glasses meant to vault the company into the AI wearables space next year and compete with a growing category pioneered by Meta Platforms Inc.
If you’re a podcast listener, I want you to check out The TPM Social Club, our second podcast which is hosted by reporter Josh Kovensky and publisher Joe Ragazzo. I particularly hope you check out the latest episode where Josh and Joe interview TPM’s Capitol Hill reporter Emine Yücel. They talk about covering Capitol Hill for TPM, being an international competition-level fencer and also her background as an immigrant from Turkey and reporting on Capitol Hill politics through the prism of a Turkish background and upbringing.
What they talk about is interesting in itself. But I think you’ll also find it interesting as a TPM Reader because you see the organization sort of from the side, as it were, in this pod. You hear a lot from me at TPM in the Editors’ Blog. You hear from me again in our flagship podcast along with Kate Riga. You get some feel for who Kate and I are, our ideas, how we express things in conversation. You get some of that from David Kurtz too. But while you see the rest of the editorial team’s writing, that’s not really the same thing. You know the names, but not much about their backgrounds and them as people.
You get some of that in this episode with all three of them. The pod in general isn’t about politics in the way The TPM Show with Josh and Kate is. Politics is part of it, but it’s far less tied to the politics and news of the moment and some stuff that isn’t politics at all. It’s kind of about everything we’re interested in, or Josh and Joe are, and like everyone else there’s a lot more that we’re interested in besides politics. The particular dynamic of this episode was interesting to me because each of the three is from a different part of the organization. As our Capitol Hill reporter, Emine is right on top of the politics news of the moment, and having to translate TPMness, what we’re interested in and what we’re not, right there on the front lines. Josh covers politics news too. But the investigative beat is different, in subject matter and pace. Joe is the publisher, which means he’s in charge of running the business side of the operation. I found that part of this episode really interesting.
I enjoyed listening to it for my own reasons, seeing an angle on the organization I founded and still oversee but that has its own organic internal life, its own internal culture that has a life entirely on its own. If you’re a founder, there’s a way that it’s very natural to see the thing as kind of an extension of yourself. But if you’re successful, it becomes much more than that, a lot of it and if possible its center of gravity exists entirely independent of you. If you’re a TPM Reader, I think you’ll really enjoy it.
You can find it — TPM Social Club — on all the podcast platforms. But you can also see the video version here or just watch below. You might find the video version more interesting since if you’re getting a sense of members of the TPM staff, it’s interesting to actually see them.
One more link from OpenAI’s Help Center, this one explaining how to upgrade from the old Mac app to the new “super” app version:
Follow the prompt in the app to download the new ChatGPT desktop app. Then sign in with the same ChatGPT account.
The new app may install alongside your current app. If both remain installed, you will see:
- ChatGPT: The new app with Chat, Work, and Codex.
- ChatGPT Classic: The previous ChatGPT desktop app. You can continue using it; no migration is required at launch. It continues to receive model updates, bug fixes, security patches, and support for its existing Enterprise capabilities. New agent features may be available only in the new app.
None of this has been my experience. I had the existing old ChatGPT app installed on three different Macs. On all three of them, the built-in “Check for Updates” command only installs the latest version of the classic app. This is good, I suppose. But if you’re not aware from following the news that OpenAI released an altogether new “super” app for MacOS and Windows, you’d never know it from the Check for Updates command built into the classic Mac app.
So I don’t see “the prompt in the app to download the new ChatGPT desktop app”. If I download the new app manually, I get a disk image. After mounting the disk image, the instructions say to double-click the “ChatGPT” app on the disk image — not to drag it to the Applications folder. If I do that while the old ChatGPT app is still running, it bounces back and forth a few times but nothing new gets installed and nothing old gets removed or renamed. I’m just left with the classic ChatGPT app, still named “ChatGPT”.
If I run the installer on the disk image when the old ChatGPT app is not running, the old app gets replaced by the new one in my Applications folder, and the old app is moved to the Trash. There is no app named “ChatGPT Classic”.
I mean, their Help document does say “the new app may install alongside your current app”, and “if both remained installed”, so they seem just as confused as I am. And while you can, for now at least, just remain on the old version of the app and still get model updates and bug fixes, there is seemingly no way to download a new copy of the classic ChatGPT Mac app if you don’t already have a copy. The update installation is seemingly non-deterministic.
This is an app with over a billion users. I know there aren’t a billion users of the native Mac app, but, still. It’s one of the most popular apps any company has ever made, and the biggest update they’ve ever shipped is an incoherent confusing mess.
Links for you. Science:
Why we don’t know what food is spreading the parasite sickening thousands. There’s a lag between when people consume the parasite and when symptoms appear, making it tough for those infected to remember what they ate to pinpoint the problem. (though Listeria infections suffer from the same problem; article does mention the genomic diagnostics difficulties however)
Two of Texas’s Deadliest Pests Are Bound to Clash. Will Anybody Win?
How Oregon cut pesticide-related bee deaths
The Heat Is On
The administration has a new climate change office. It’s headed by a climate criticglobal warming denialist.
Don’t ‘never-skill’ yourself with AI
The Trump Administration’s Existential Threat to Scientific Research
Other:
The Insurgency Will Continue Until Morale Improves. How Democratic voters began to question, and ultimately lost faith in, their party’s establishment: a comprehensive history. (excellent, must-read)
The Office Amenity That Actually Improves Teamwork (realistically, it’s office doors)
Trump Plans to Fence in Historic Space for Political Protests. Trump is moving to shut down all protests outside the White House. (when Trump closed Lafayette temporarily in 2020, that led to protests on the sidewalk & then to the tear gassing by St. John’s, which, in turn, massively swelled the size of D.C.’s BLM protests, so this might not have the result they think it will…)
Admitted killer wins GOP governor’s nomination in Colorado
Federal Investigators Say Certain DOGE Records Were Deleted. A government report claims DOGE didn’t access sensitive systems. It also says the agency deleted records that would show if they had.
Platner’s Daniel Moraff Barred from Summer Lee’s Campaign Over Sexual Misconduct Complaints
Migrants who saw man killed by ICE in Houston say he did not ram officers
It’s Not the AI. It’s the Lawyer: We Don’t Have a Hallucination Problem, We Have a Serious Ethics Problem
Graham Platner sounded like a fighter, but in the end, the man from Maine was a petulant child
ICE killed Lorenzo Salgado Araujo. They want you to be apathetic. Don’t be.
Voters on SNAP are sad after voting for anti-SNAP party
Flock Cameras Screw Up, Swarm Innocent Man With Armed Police
The Anti-Amazon
How Palestinians Are Building a Digital Archive That Can’t Be Erased
Once Unimaginable, Publishers Are Preparing to Opt Out of Google Search
Madison Square Garden Kept a List of Gay Celebrities
Meta’s Bacterial Mystery Could Poison the Data Center Well
I spent a week using the Trump phone — it sucks
Candidates Need More Than Vibes. Graham Platner Proves It.
Trump’s Chief Design Officer Just Boosted the John Birch Society
Trump vs. algae is the feud we deserve
Trump admin says it won’t use money earmarked by Congress to replace NYC housing vouchers
‘Troubled Teen’ Program Where Paris Hilton Was Tortured Is Finally Going Down
Pete Buttigieg Didn’t Have to Let Those CPS Officers In
Argentina’s Racism Problem. A song against Black French soccer players is a symptom of deep-rooted prejudice
Presumably afraid of investigations into his actions, President Donald J. Trump appears to have abandoned all pretense of governing for the good of the country and is focusing on rigging the 2026 election to keep Republicans in power.
This morning, as the National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. home prices have hit an all-time high, he announced that he will not sign the housing bill, which was designed to address the unaffordability of housing and which passed Congress with strong bipartisan majorities, “in PROTEST over the fact that the United States Senate is not capable of passing THE SAVE AMERICA ACT.”
As the Lincoln Project summed it up, the Republican Party’s message four months before the midterms appears to be, “You’re not getting affordable housing unless you give up your voting rights.”
His demand for the passage of a bill that most observers agree will suppress voting is only one of the ways that Trump is trying to rig the 2026 election.
After federal judges have repeatedly prohibited the administration from seizing state voter lists, apparently to run them through a program designed to identify noncitizens who are not eligible for certain federal programs (something federal judges have also prohibited), Trump’s appointees at the Department of Justice appear to have turned to trying to intimidate election officials.
On Tuesday the Department of Justice confirmed that it has sent letters to election officials in all fifty states and Washington, D.C., warning them that they could be criminally prosecuted if noncitizens vote. The letters came from Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, a Trump loyalist, and gave them five days to detail how they will maintain “clean voter lists.”
Utah lieutenant governor Deidre Henderson, a Republican, posted on social media: “Got another love letter this morning from the DOJ sprinkled throughout with threats of criminal prosecution. I’m sure I’m not the only chief election officer of a state who is being targeted for following state and federal laws by resisting DOJ’s demands for private voter data that have thus far been ruled illegal by at least a dozen courts. This is truly bizarre behavior by the federal agency that is supposed to be protecting civil rights.”
Last night, Trump fired the last two Democratic members of the Election Assistance Commission (EAC), an independent federal commission that helps state and local officials make sure elections are smooth and secure. Among other things, it certifies voting machines and maintains the national mail-voter registration forms. The only other current member of the EAC, a Republican, resigned. The fourth member of the EAC, a Republican, resigned earlier this year.
A White House official told Justin Papp of CNBC that the Supreme Court recognized Trump’s authority to fire the agency officials in its June 29 Trump v. Slaughter decision, which overturned more than 90 years of precedent to rubber stamp the president’s right to fire agency officials who are not aligned with his political agenda.
“The President, and head of the Executive Branch, reserves the right to remove individuals that may not be totally aligned with the important task of securing America’s elections and ensuring every legal vote is counted,” the official told Papp. “The Slaughter decision gives the President precedence to do so.”
Legal analyst Harry Litman says this interpretation of the Slaughter decision is a stretch. He noted that “[n]othing in the agency cases held that Trump could simply shut down an agency of Congress’s creation. That’s what he has done with the [E]lection Assistance [C]ommission which now lacks commissioners to act. It’s taking the court’s cases to the ultimate conclusion and just disabling an important agency.”
The nonpartisan, nonprofit League of Women Voters, which works to protect the right to vote, called the removal of the Election Assistance Commission officials “a direct attack on the independence of our nation’s election infrastructure…. The American people deserve elections administered by trusted professionals, not shaped by political interference. This is not a routine personnel decision—it is a dangerous escalation in the effort to weaken the safeguards that protect free and fair elections in the November midterms.”
This is the backdrop for the news from Betsy Klein and Kaitlan Collins of CNN today that the White House is fortifying the White House entrance at the North Portico during Trump’s renovation of the Ionic columns there.
In March, Trump’s appointee to the Commission on Fine Arts, which advises Trump on design matters, urged replacing the historic Ionic columns with more ornate Corinthian columns that would match the ones Trump picked out for his ballroom. The White House says the work on the North Portico is “standard restoration work,” but did not answer CNN’s question about whether there would be more substantial changes to the North Portico. Trump recently posted pictures of the Corinthian columns at his proposed ballroom, boasting that “When completed, there will be nothing like it anywhere in the World!”
While the focus has been on the historic columns and their possible replacement, it is not until now we have learned about the strengthening of the White House door. The portico is now covered with scaffolding that is covered with a drape, and a White House official told Klein and Collins that the renovations will include security enhancements at the request of the U.S. Secret Service.
Dan Diamond of the Washington Post also reported today that under the Trump administration, the Secret Service, the White House, and the Interior Department are seeking to place permanent eight- to nine-foot-tall fencing around Lafayette Square, where tourists and protesters congregate, in front of the White House. They are also considering fencing off the parts of Pennsylvania Avenue near the White House. In the past, when officials believed it was necessary to shut off access to Lafayette Square, they used temporary barriers to avoid the perception that they were restricting public access to what is known as the People’s House.
Eleanor Holmes Norton, the nonvoting congressional representative from the District of Columbia., objected. “More fencing around the President’s Park would send the wrong message to the nation and the world by continuing to transform our democracy from one that is accessible and of the people to one that is exclusive and fearful of its own citizens,” she said.
Tonight, at 11:59 PM, the housing bill became law without the president’s signature.
—
Notes:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/09/trump-fires-election-commissioners
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-fires-election-assistance-commission-leadership/
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/trump-purges-election-assistance-commission.html
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/09/politics/white-house-columns-trump-construction
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/10/politics/white-house-front-door-fortification
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/03/15/white-house-columns-ionic-corinthian/
https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5885027/housing-bill-without-trump-signature
Trumpstruth.org:
Bluesky:
lincolnproject.us/post/3mqcdfiwwh72n
harrylitman.bsky.social/post/3mqci7yv6m225
Threads:

I snapped this photo last week in Frankfurt while catching a Lufthansa flight to Slovenia. It shows a Lufthansa 787 side-by-side with 747-400.
Lufthansa bases its 747s at Frankfurt (the A380s go to Munich), and it’s the only airport left in the world where you’re liable to see them in any great number. I counted nine.
And I love the condor logos on the facades. Lufthansa has always taken its branding seriously.
The post July 10, 2026. Frankfurt Main. appeared first on AskThePilot.com.

Eight years ago, I wrote about my theory of restoring struggling teams, which came down to four steps:
Even now, I find this mental model extremely valuable, but I do think it is missing one interesting nuance that I’ve seen many teams run into in high-growth environments: suppressed and generated demand. Suppressed demand is the idea of incoming work that isn’t incoming, because teams stop asking you for help. Generated demand is when an increasingly effective team’s progress is noticed, and the previously suppressed demand is converted into actual demand.

The consequence of generated demand is that a team that was struggling can successfully recover, work through much of its backlog, and then shortly thereafter be just as far underwater as they were at their worst. This is a very disorienting experience, and even a demoralizing one. The team has done everything right, shipped a bunch of genuinely valuable work, and are nonetheless just as far underwater as they were before.
To give a concrete example, our Customer Operations Engineering team didn’t exist a year ago, and instead we invested in customer operations engineering tasks by prioritizing them into a larger team’s tasks. This often meant we had very valuable projects that didn’t get staffed. We then split it out into its own team, launching a number of projects like reworking our internal customer operations tooling and integrating Sierra for our IVR, both of which worked out quite well. As a result of working out well, there are far more requests for work. Despite accomplishing so much, the team is even further behind on the incoming requests than they were a year ago, when they had shipped relatively little and had relatively little capacity to ship more.
Unfortunately, the solution here is not particularly novel: you have to run through the cycle again. And potentially a third time. And potentially a fourth time. You just have to keep running through it until you’ve surfaced the entire backlog of suppressed demand. This is very similar to the problem of latent incidents which cause effective reliability programs to look like they’re failing as they drain the stock of previously created latent incidents. Sometimes you’re doing the right thing, and it just takes a while to work. Your challenge in that moment is building conviction that you are indeed doing the right thing, and convincing your team and leadership of that as well.
Finally, it’s interesting to attempt to predict which teams are, and which aren’t, sitting on top of a backlog of suppressed demand. Some teams run through the recovery cycle, and find that there simply isn’t much else to do. These tend to be teams with very narrow interfaces, for example a team whose job is providing internal queues probably won’t have much generated demand after clearing the initial backlog. Teams with broad interfaces, like customer operations or developer experience, are generally sitting on an incredibly large, albeit currently invisible, backlog of suppressed work.
How do you speed up computational Python code? A common, and useful, starting point is:
But what if you need more speed? Consider the following real problem, one of the steps in scikit-learn’s gradient histogram boosting algorithm:
scikit-learn implements this by splitting up the full range of float values into 255 buckets, creating a sorted array of bucket boundaries, and then using binary search to choose the appropriate bucket for each value. The binary search is implemented in a compiled language, and it can run in parallel on multiple cores.
Recently, as part of my work at Quansight, and inspired by two posts by Paul Khuong, I sped up this implementation significantly. How? By making sure the code wasn’t fighting against the CPU.
In this article I’m going to walk you through that speed-up, demonstrated on a simplified example. Then I’m going to demonstrate a series of additional optimizations, with the final version running 6× faster than the original one.
It’s worth knowing that I will be speeding through mentions of many different low-level hardware topics: instruction-level parallelism, branch (mis)prediction, memory caches, SIMD, and more. This is only one article, it can only briefly introduce you to what’s possible, it can’t function as an in-depth tutorial. So I’ll talk about how you can learn more about these topics at the end of the article.
Read more...
The Space Force is backing the development of the company’s hybrid engine technology for small satellites
The post Parabilis tests propulsion system for maneuverable cubesats appeared first on SpaceNews.

The Federal Communications Commission has given its approval for a satellite that will test the ability to reflect sunlight into nighttime regions, a project sharply criticized by astronomers and environmentalists.
The post FCC approves first Reflect Orbital satellite appeared first on SpaceNews.
In a rare combined cybersecurity/squid post, a twenty-nine-year-old squid proxy bug can leak HTTP requests.
As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven’t covered.
I wonder how you would design a really single-minded voice UI?
Like, voice interfaces are really good now because of AI.
But they’re so unbounded. If you’re having a voice interaction with a computer or with a device, you could end up having a conversation about anything.
And while a voice UI is great within a domain, do you really want to be gossiping about movies or having a psychotherapy session with your fridge? I mean, at that point what even is a product?
i.e. how would you have a single purpose Alexa?
So I’ve been spelunking Technovelgy for things that speak but only in a limited domain.
(Technovelgy is a database of over 4,000 inventions from sci-fi.)
Like this ATM that discourages long convos:
He headed for the ATM in the back… he knew it was watching him as he walked up to it.
“Identify yourself, please.” Lucky Dragon ATMs all had this same voice, a weird, uptight, strangled little castrato voice … probably kept people from standing around, [talking] with it…
– All Tomorrow’s Parties, William Gibson, Lucky Dragon ATM
You can’t imagine this smug door talking about anything else except its fee. It would accuse you of changing the subject.
The door refused to open. It said, “Five cents, please.”
He searched his pockets. No more coins; nothing. “I’ll pay you tomorrow,” he told the door. Again it remained locked tight. “What I pay you,” he informed it, “is in the nature of a gratuity; I don’t have to pay you.”
“I think otherwise,” the door said. “Look in the purchase contract you signed when you bought this conapt.”
…he found the contract. Sure enough; payment to his door for opening and shutting constituted a mandatory fee. Not a tip.
“You discover I’m right,” the door said. It sounded smug.
– Ubik, Philip K. Dick, Toll Door
Doors are often single-minded.
As the door closed behind them it became apparent that it did indeed have a satisfied sigh-like quality to it. “Hummmmmmmyummmmmmm ah!” it said.
– The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams, Self-Satisfied Door
For obvious reasons I like this singing clock, although the user doesn’t appear to speak back to it.
In the living room the voice-clock, Tick-tock, seven o’clock, time to get up, time get up, seven o’clock! as if it were afraid that nobody would.
Somewhere in the walls, relays clicked, memory tapes glided under electric eyes.
Eight-one, tick-tock, eight-one o’clock, off to school, off to work, run, run, eight-one!
– The Martian Chronicles, Ray Bradbury, Voice-Clock
As it happens I did once build a speaking clock based on Poem/1.
It was made from a Yoto player, and when you stuck a special card in then it would tell the time by speaking a poem out loud every 15 minutes. (I was given earlier access to the expanded developer API.)
It was enormously distracting haha
UNTIL:
I switched the speaking clock voice to an ASMR voice from ElevenLabs (which it turns out they go).
It turned out that, if you’re in the zone, a whispered poem doesn’t intrude on your focus. It’s like the traffic outside or the soft wind in the trees. You don’t notice.
But if you’re not focusing, you hear the ASMR whisper as a kind of chime.
It was weird in a short demo, but the attentional impedance matching was absolutely perfect as a device in your room.
I should share a video at some point.
My absolute favourite is this hotel that wants to exist.
This Texan hotel, for instance, was an entirely virtual construction, ones and zeros embedded in a set of chips. And yet, the hotel direly wanted to exist. It would become very beautiful, and it was already very smart. It could sweet-talk itself into physical existence from random piles of raw materials.
Oscar lugged the self-declared cornerstone to the corner of the southern wall. “I belong here,” the cornerstone declared. “Put mortar on me.”
Oscar picked up a trowel. “I’m the tool for the mortar,” the little trowel squeaked cheerfully.
– Distraction, Bruce Sterling, Bambakias Hotel
I love this idea: a pile of bricks and tools, and a speaker that calls out to passers-by and asks for favours.
We’ve spent decades using technology to commoditise labour. Why not use it to commoditise management?
There’s more detail:
Oscar peeled a strip of tape from a yellow spool and wrapped the tape around a cinder block. He swept a hand-scanner over the block, activating the tape…
“I’m a cornerstone,” the cinder block announced.
“Good for you,” Oscar grunted.
“I’m a cornerstone. Carry me five steps to your left.” The construction system was smart enough to manage a limited and specific vocabulary. Unfortunately, the system simply didn’t hear very well. The tiny microphones embedded in the talking tape were much less effective than the tape’s thumbnail-sized speakers. Still, it was hard not to reply to a concrete block when it spoke up with such grace and authority. The concrete blocks all sounded like Franklin Roosevelt.
– Distraction, Bruce Sterling, Talking Tape
It’s not just the “telling you what to do” which is clever here (you could do it today by playing the appropriate YouTube while you assemble an IKEA wardrobe). It’s the wiki-like crowdsourcing and automatic coordination.
This isn’t to do with voice, but I like this single-minded toaster that takes its destiny into its own hands:
As a connected toaster, he’s in constant contact with other connected toasters like him – and thus keenly aware of how much action they’re getting. If he’s not being used as much as his friends, Brad gets upset. He’ll wiggle his little handle to get your attention, begging you to make some toast or at least to give him a reassuring pat on the side. Ignore him long enough, and he’ll take a more drastic measure: pinging a network of potential owners to find a new home.
From 2014! By Simone Rebaudengo of the brilliant oio.studio.
BONUS REFERENCE:
Golden Gate Claude (2024), a research project by Anthropic that was online for 24 hours only and connects all conversation back to the Golden Gate Bridge.
If you ask this “Golden Gate Claude” how to spend $10, it will recommend using it to drive across the Golden Gate Bridge and pay the toll. If you ask it to write a love story, it’ll tell you a tale of a car who can’t wait to cross its beloved bridge on a foggy day.
Back in the day, text adventures were games with a natural language interface.
Zork (1977) was the first well-known one.
Here’s a list of the what the language parser says in response to various errors, straight from the source code of the final PDP-10 version of Zork from 1981:
I like the straightforwardness of this: some errors are plain old “syntax error” complaints but others are educating the user about the way the system works.
No conclusions, just thinking.
Auto-detected kinda similar posts:
Christoph Henking and Ben Baumberg Geiger found that while there has been a steep rise in the share of young Britons reporting a mental illness, the share of people who say a mental health problem limits their day-to-day functioning has barely budged.
…when asked if they would consider someone experiencing typical fluctuations in mood (described as broad happiness but occasional moments of worry, frustration or loss of confidence) as having a mental illness, more than half of young Americans say yes, up from just a fifth 15 years ago. Older people’s views show no such change.
Here is more from John Burn-Murdoch at the FT. I would second his numerous caveats, and you should not consider this at all conclusive. But the alternative perspective is not conclusive either.
The post Mental health sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
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With everything else going on, the ongoing demolition of financial regulation and supervision, which is raising the risks of financial crisis, isn’t getting much attention. So I spoke with Dennis Kelliher, president of Better Markets, an independent think tank that is trying to sound the alarm.
Full disclosure: my nephew works at Better Markets. But I would have wanted to talk to Kelleher regardless.
. . .
TRANSCRIPT:
Paul Krugman in Conversation with Dennis Kelleher
(recorded 7/10/26)
Paul Krugman: Hi everyone. It seems hard to believe now, but the great financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath are now in the distant past. I think, in fact, in November there will be some voters who weren’t born yet. But for some of us, it was a huge, defining event, and financial markets as a source of economic problems and instability hasn’t gone away. And I thought I would talk with Dennis Kelleher, who is the head of Better Markets, an independent think tank devoted to trying to make financial markets work better for the rest of us. And in the note, I’ll mention I do have a personal connection to Better Markets, but that’s not why I’m interviewing Mr. Kelleher. Dennis is a former Senate aide, and as you know, congressional staffers are one of the great sources of expertise in America. And we want to talk about financial markets, so hi.
Dennis Kelleher: Hi. Thanks for having me, Paul. Good to see you.
Krugman: Good to see you, too. I have a bunch of questions, but we can go wherever this goes. The first thing is, whenever I try to talk about financial market functioning, what comes up is that most financial assets are owned by a relatively small part of the population, even if you take 401(k)s into account. So why isn’t this just a fight among the investor class? Why should everyone care about this?
Kelleher: Well, it’s a great question because there’s such a lack of information about financial markets, the financial system, and frankly, as you well know, the economy. You know, one of the great services that you and many of your colleagues have provided is basically translating what’s happening in the economy and financial markets to the average Main Street American, reader of the New York Times, and consumers of news. And the truth is that the financial markets and obviously the economy impact everybody, and you’re right.
This November during the election, some of the people voting will not have actually had any awareness of the 2008 financial crash, which was the biggest crash in the United States since 1929, which caused the Great Depression. And even though they may not have been born at that time, the people who are voting in November are still living through the repercussions of the 2008 crash. We basically lost an entire generation of Americans, economically speaking, from that crash.
It took ten years for the U-6, the broad unemployment rate, to return to pre-crash levels. It was 2017 before that happened. And indeed, the Fed did an interesting study, which people can quibble with the baseline, but they did a study in 2018 that showed at the end of 2016, 90% of Americans were poorer than they were in 2007 by 17 to 35 percent. So if you think about that, at the end of 2016, the best-off American in that ninety percent bucket was 17% poorer. Now you could say the baseline of 2007 was inflated, but by and large, 90% of Americans have been doing pretty poorly since the crash for a lot of reasons.
And so in November, when those people go to vote, they might not know it but they are actually living through the continuing economic consequences, financial consequences, and actually political consequences. Because the rise of Trump and the dissatisfaction of voters, Americans, and actually voters in the UK and elsewhere—Martin Wolf from the Financial Times wrote a terrific book called The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. It shows how if countries don’t deliver for the broad population, then democracy erodes and people look for easy answers, authoritarians, and strongmen. And we end up with Brexit, we end up with Trump.
And so you’re right. People don’t remember the crash, but the crash is incredibly important to everybody in America. And the circumstances that we find ourselves in today are unfortunately echoing many of the drivers of that crash.
Now, I didn’t answer your question about the investor class, but when you look at investors, something like 87% of the value of the stock market is owned by the top 10%. On the other hand, there are today $27 trillion worth of assets in 401(k)s and IRAs, retirement accounts. It’s overwhelmingly skewed to the top, but not only. And importantly, one of the great projects that America really needs to undertake is to democratize finance so that financial assets and the ability to grow wealth is more broadly spread out. One of the big crippling problems we have today is that the bottom 50% of Americans, about 165 million Americans, only have 2.5% of the wealth of the country. It’s astonishing, right?
And so a big part of what Better Markets does in economic and financial policy making is to try and rebalance what we see as a rigged economy that’s driven by a rigged and broken financial system. So our economy is producing very well for the top ten percent, and our financial system is structured to deliver those results. Now, part of that is wealth extraction, but a lot of it is just structural drivers put in place by policy makers in Washington that cater to the top ten percent. And that, unfortunately, Paul, as you know, is on a bipartisan basis.
Krugman: We’re gonna get into that in a bit, but let me just ask a question. I’m gonna actually kind of veer off course, although this is something I wanted to get to. Top ten percent. So basically, ownership of stock is, roughly speaking, a top ten percent activity. When you talk about skewed, I mean, I have a sense that it is actually increasingly skewed towards a fraction of a fraction. Do you have anything I should take away about how the system is rigged or skewed within the stock-owning population?
Kelleher: Well, I think the problem is that the higher up you go on the wealth scale, the greater your ability to accumulate even more wealth in a tax-free fashion, right? And then to pass it along to both use it today as if it was cash and income, not be taxed on it, use it, and then hand it off through inheritance without being taxed to heirs for multi-generational wealth concentration at the top. It’s bad for the economy and bad for democracy.
I mean, you’ve talked to Ro Khanna and there’s all sorts of people with different ideas about what to do. We’ve got a wealth tax on the ballot in California. But in terms of the structural drivers, one of the problems we see at Better Markets is that Democrats don’t pay enough attention to the financial structural drivers of the economy. So here’s just a simple example that people are often surprised by.
Community banks in the United States—there’s about a little over four thousand of them. You see them on every corner across America, particularly in “real America,” as opposed to where you and I live, Paul, which is by no means real America. But those banks lend out seventy-five cents on average of every dollar of deposit. The big Wall Street banks, they lend out somewhere less than fifty cents of every dollar of deposit. And that’s because it’s so much more profitable for them catering to the rich, mostly engaging in financial activities, trading, and capital markets activities.
And so ask yourself, why is that? Well, that’s because the rules enacted by the banking regulators and Congress and other regulators allow the profit margins on the financialized trading side to be so much greater than on the lending side. I mean, truthfully, the rules that are created in Washington actually discriminate against lending to the real economy.
And so you have community banks which don’t have capital markets activities. They’re bread-and-butter banks for the most part. It depends on how you define community banks; some people define them all the way up to Wall Street, but those are people in the propaganda industry. But these are banks that are actually driving the real economy. So for example, the community banks have somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% of the total assets of the banking system, but they actually provide somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% of all loans to small businesses.
Krugman: Right.
Kelleher: Well, why are we not having rules that skew towards benefiting the real productive economy and away from the trading financialized activities which serve the very top one or two percent and not the rest? And actually, it not only doesn’t serve the rest of the country, it’s at the expense of the rest of the country. Better Markets put out a report showing that last year the growth in major Wall Street bank lending to what are called “non-banks” grew by 50%. Do you know what their lending to the real economy grew by? Zero. Zero. And so a lot of these activities are being pushed out into what are called non-banks because it’s more profitable. It’s more profitable because the rules make it more profitable. The rules are created in Washington by policymakers, regulators, and legislators who, unfortunately, too often are beholden to the wrong people. And so you end up with this cycle where the rules keep reinforcing the current structure that’s channeling activity and money to the top and away from Main Street.
Krugman: So as I understood it, reading some of Better Markets’ reports, if you’re a big financial institution, lending to non-banks probably ends up being a roundabout route by which the money reaches lenders, but not through the original bank. They actually have kind of a regulatory advantage because it’s lower capital requirements. If I got that right?
Kelleher: Well, it’s lower capital requirements, it’s lower requirements across the board. Capital is one of the core drivers, but it’s not the only one.
Krugman: So if you put your money with Citigroup or another one of the big financial institutions, it’s not going to be lent out, or much of it will not be lent out to small business or households. It’ll be lent to others; it’ll kind of divert around and it’ll in effect be channeled into what you consider a worse way through which the money reaches the rest of the economy. Is that a fair summary?
Kelleher: That’s a fair summary of part of it. Keep in mind a lot of this money is funding hedge funds doing big basis trades, basically swinging for the fences. I’m not saying there’s no value at any hedge fund to the real economy, but when you look at their activities, that’s not exactly what I would call beneficial lending to the real, productive economy. Private equity is basically a strip-and-rip business model. It gets their money from the banks. Almost everything goes back to the banks, and that’s because deposit money is the safest, soundest, and cheapest source of funding for economic activities.
And so the banks have got the money, and what they decide is: where are they going to send it? Are they going to send it over here to lend to Main Street businesses where their profit margin is modest, or go over here to hedge funds, private equity, or other financialized activities—business development corporations, crypto, all sorts of things where the profit margin is large? They’re making rational economic decisions in their self-interest to profit maximize.
The question is: why are the people in Washington structuring it that way so that their profit margins are like that? The current capital rules that we’re fighting about, Paul, are supposed to change that. And in fact, what they’re supposed to do is have, for example, the trading activities accurately reflect the risk associated with them. And if they accurately did that, the capital requirements for those activities would be much higher. Not only are the banking agencies with the Federal Reserve in the lead not doing that, but when they’re done with the proposed capital rules, capital at the biggest, most dangerous banks in the United States is going to be back to the levels roughly before what they were before the 2008 crash.
I mean, think about that. It’s crazy, right? Here’s something that’s even crazier: a bunch of those big banks are going to have capital rules and capital levels that are roughly similar to community banks.
Krugman: Which are low, because they’re in a very safe business, right?
Kelleher: Yes. Well, right. The systemic risk to the economy of community banks, first of all as an absolute matter, is pretty low. But relative to the giants on Wall Street, they’re infinitesimal; they’re not even comparable. And we’ve got a Federal Reserve, particularly the Vice Chairman of Supervision and Regulation over there, that acts as if she’s the primary lobbyist for Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan Chase.
She even hired three of Wall Street’s top lobbyist lawyers to be her senior advisors. I’m not making this up. One was a vice president at Goldman Sachs. One was one of Wall Street’s top lawyers at one of the top Wall Street law firms for 35 years. And the other one was a top executive at Wall Street’s biggest trade group in Washington. Those are her three top advisors.
Krugman: Are you talking about Fed employees or outside consultants?
Kelleher: No, they’re Fed employees. They’re on staff. We put out a press release about her hiring the three of them. I mean, this is not just the fox guarding the hen house; this is the fox in charge of all operations of the hen house. So the lawyer who was on Wall Street for 35 years, serving his clients for 35 years—all of the banks—is now the Director of Regulation and Supervision at the Federal Reserve of his former clients, and the right-hand top staffer for the Vice Chairman of Supervision and Regulation on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. And so anybody who is surprised that the Fed is now enacting or proposing rules incredibly favorable to the biggest banks on Wall Street...
And it’s not just capital, Paul. I mean, one of the tradeoffs here is that banks get to have a somewhat unique role in the United States, right? They get to accumulate all these activities and take people’s deposits. Main Street American deposits are how these banks fund themselves, largely. And then we insure that money through the FDIC so people have confidence that they’ll get their money back. But the exchange is: we regulate them so that they don’t actually threaten the economy and financial system of the United States because they’re so big. So that means they’re supervised.
People don’t know this, but every day, people who work for the Federal Reserve and are paid by the American people, go to work at the biggest banks, supervising them. They literally have an office there. They go in, look at the books and records, and talk to people all day long at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Citigroup. That’s called supervision. It’s basically invisible but incredibly important. But the Fed is not only cutting back on capital and regulation like stress tests and other important safety features; they’re also gutting supervision. And so they’re basically unleashing the biggest banks in the United States from modest, sensible regulation and supervision that’s supposed to protect Main Street jobs, homes, and savings from high-risk, reckless, and inappropriate conduct by these gigantic banks. We saw in 2008 what happens when you don’t regulate them or supervise them. And we actually just saw it again in 2023.
Krugman: Right. This is 2023 with the Silicon Valley Bank and all of that, right?
Kelleher: 2023 there were four big bank failures. Three of the four biggest bank failures in the history of the United States happened in 2023. People don’t realize it.
Krugman: Even I didn’t realize that, and I’m supposed to be on top of these things. And this is happening incredibly fast, right? Normally we think you forget the lessons of the last financial crisis basically once people age out of the business and nobody is around who really remembers it. But we were dealing with the aftermath of 2008 just fifteen or sixteen years ago. And you’re saying that basically we’re fully back to that kind of Wild West, no-supervision world, or maybe worse.
Kelleher: Well, we’re getting there, and the direction is there. We’re not quite there yet, but the thrust of what’s happening now is broader, deeper, and more reckless than it was in the years leading up to the 2008 crash. I mean, if you think about it, it’s quite amazing. The so-called shadow banking system—non-bank financial institutions—today is bigger than it was in ‘08 and less regulated.
Krugman: That’s what I was going to say. Yeah.
Kelleher: And it was identified as one of the primary drivers of the ‘08 crash.
Krugman: That’s right. I mean, I remember very vividly in the fall of 2008, the conventional wisdom, even in textbooks—including my own—said, “Well, we can”t have a 1931-style banking crisis because the banks are insured and regulated,” and then the week of Lehman’s failure was, “Sixty percent of the banking system is shadow banks.” And you’re saying that we’re back to that and more now.
Kelleher: Yeah, I don’t remember the exact percentage, but yes. And what’s worse is they’re less regulated today than they were then in many material respects. And now a lot of people think, “Well, it’s hard to worry about big catastrophic events when there’s a lot going on every day.” But this is happening fast, and because there’s so much happening in the Trump chaos machine—where there’s not a scandal a day, it’s like almost an hour.
You know, J.D. Vance, who I almost never agree with on anything, said in a speech recently at the Nixon Library that if the Nixon crimes happened today, it wouldn’t even last a full news cycle. And he’s probably right. And so a lot of this is not only happening fast, it’s happening invisibly because just a very small slice of what’s happening is getting into the media. Meanwhile, the industry termites are working day and night in the policy-making process in Washington, eating away at the foundations of the financial stability of the United States.
Krugman: You’ve been talking a lot about the Federal Reserve, which is critical because it traditionally has been the more competent, less politicized piece. And you’re basically saying that now that piece of the Fed has effectively been captured. Is that a fair description?
Kelleher: The Fed has unfortunately been largely captured. It’s being run by people who have an agenda that is not consistent with the best interest of the American people, frankly. I’m not talking about the monetary policy side—that’s a whole different discussion—but on the supervision and regulation side, they are not acting consistently with the best interest of Main Street Americans. Wall Street is winning day in and day out in the policy fights.
Krugman: Right.
Kelleher: There’s going to be news coming out, I think, over the next several weeks, maybe months, that will illustrate that pretty starkly. It’s really quite astonishing what has happened at the Fed. And don’t get me wrong—there are a lot of good, hardworking, dedicated public servants at the Fed who nobody will ever see or acknowledge, who have been fighting the good fight for many years. But the leadership at the Federal Reserve at this point—the Trump leadership—is doing to the Federal Reserve what’s being done everywhere.
Now, we know we had two big Supreme Court cases recently which supposedly cabined off the Federal Reserve from direct political control by the President, unlike the other agencies, and that’s true, but it’s all relative, right? I mean, he now has direct political control of the SEC, CFTC, and everything from the NLRB to the FTC to the FCC—all the critically important regulatory agencies that have been in place since the New Deal, basically creating and enabling an economy to be profit-maximizing but still have adequate protections for the public. I mean, that’s the balance that we need to get.
And actually, a former colleague of yours, David Leonhardt, wrote a great book—and I always have it on my desk because I recommend it to people. It’s called Ours Was the Shining Future. It’s a great history of how the United States, post-Great Depression, built the largest middle class in the history of the world, really compressed gross income inequality, and created wealth in places people didn’t think it would happen. And he talks about how things changed when Reagan came in and kind of where we are now. But that was because we had a regulatory state.
Now, people can argue about what’s reasonable—how much is too much, how much is too little—but we struck a balance that enabled the SEC, the CFTC, the Federal Reserve, and other regulatory agencies, from labor to health to product safety. That balance took some of the craziness off the blind profit maximization built within the engine of the economy.
Now, the Supreme Court basically said last week that doesn’t exist anymore. What exists going forward is that the President gets to control all those agencies, and all those agencies are now subject to both the political agenda and the whim of whoever the President is.
Krugman: So, for listeners who may not know: SEC is the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is supposed to regulate stocks and corporate accounting and all of that. CFTC is the Commodities...
Kelleher: Futures Trading Commission, regulating derivatives and commodities. It’s the least known but a very important agency. For example, commodities: the bread in your lunch pail, the cereal in your breakfast bowl, the gas in your car, the heat in your home—all those markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Krugman: Yeah. And so Humphrey’s Executor, the case where the Supreme Court essentially said that Congress cannot establish a mandate and then expect an agency to fulfill it if the President doesn’t want to. That really affects all of these agencies, right?
Kelleher: Right. Actually, the case last week was Slaughter v. FTC, and that case overruled Humphrey’s Executor, which was a Supreme Court case from ninety years ago. I don’t remember exactly; it could be eighty. Contrary to what my kids often think, I haven’t been around that long.
Krugman: It’s ninety years ago because it was actually a ruling against FDR. FDR was trying to change something, and the Supreme Court said, “Well, that’s not what Congress said and you, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, cannot change it.” But now it’s been waived for Donald Trump.
Kelleher: Yeah, well, look. We have a right-wing Supreme Court—a supermajority—that is essentially creating, for the first time in American history, an all-powerful executive branch. As you know, it’s been referred to by legal scholars as the “unitary executive theory,” where essentially the President, whoever they are, gets to control the entire executive branch. And of course, over the last ninety years or so since the New Deal, we’ve had an administrative state that has, in key respects, put some brakes on the worst excesses of unrestrained profit-seeking. They’re just basic public protections.
I think of it as being like cars, right? Cars today are very safe; they have airbags, bumpers that are shock absorbers, glass that shatters and doesn’t kill you, and reinforced doors. What the Supreme Court is doing with Slaughter v. FTC and these other cases that are empowering the President is literally taking the airbags and bumpers off your car. Except the car, in this case, is the country. It’s our democracy, our economy, and our financial system. The safety aspects of that system that protect our democracy, economy, and financial system protect people’s jobs and savings.
And frankly, their safety—even things like the Consumer Product Safety Commission or the FDA. These acronyms can get confusing, but what they really are are safety mechanisms and protections for Main Street Americans from things that happen in a gigantic economy like the United States that would otherwise have really bad impacts on Main Street Americans, whether it’s their job, their health, their safety, or their savings—frankly, their families and their dreams. And that’s what these agencies do; some do it better than others, and I’m not saying they always get it right. They don’t; they get it wrong. We criticize them all the time. We criticize them when Democrats are in charge and we criticize them when Republicans are in charge. We also praise them when they do well. But we need them; we need these shock absorbers on an otherwise unrestrained economy that’s just profit-driven, and that’s what we’re seeing now.
Krugman: We’ve ended up talking a lot about the Fed, which has a critical supervisory role, but Better Markets has been writing a lot about the SEC lately, and there’s stuff happening there that’s barely being noticed. I’m barely seeing anything about it in the newspapers, and yet that’s just as important, right? There’s a lot going on at the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Kelleher: So, the Securities and Exchange Commission was created in 1933. There were two laws: 1933 and 1934. And by the way, I should say if anybody’s really interested in this—I hate to sound like a book reviewer—but there’s some great stuff. Diana Henriques wrote a terrific book last year called Taming the Street, which is a history of the SEC, how it came about, why it’s so important, and what happened during the Great Depression. It’s also a history of the American economy, a bit like David Leonhardt’s book. And it’s an easy read.
But the SEC regulates investor protection in our markets. And you asked this earlier, Paul: why should anybody really care given that so many of these assets are owned by the top ten percent? Well, as you know, we basically have an economy funding pipeline—a capital pipeline, if you will—in our economy. People all over the country come up with ideas, some of which fail and some of which succeed. Those that succeed need capital to grow so that they can take it from their garage to a local store, to a factory, and to global markets.
Krugman: Right.
Kelleher: When they start, they end up using angel capital or friends and family. Ultimately they get a good idea and a venture capitalist. And then the big success used to be your company would go public on the stock exchange. That’s how companies generated enormous amounts of capital—which is just a fancy word for money. They got enough money to grow their business, build things, and hire a lot more people. It’s how we built the middle class.
And that’s what the SEC regulates: the public part of that capital pipeline—the big public markets like the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. They regulate both the disclosure obligations and they police those markets. They do that because what happened in the 1920s contributed mightily to the 1929 crash and the Great Depression. It was basically people who were lying, cheating, and stealing with almost no regulation at all. The big banks were often multi-headed financial conglomerates doing self-dealing and conflicts of interest. Not only didn’t they disclose things, but when they did, they often lied and defrauded people. A lot of that ended up being basically what we would think of today as Ponzi schemes—nothing really there except the people running the firms enriching themselves.
The SEC was created to make sure we had well-regulated and well-policed markets so investors wouldn’t get fleeced, providing capital for businesses to grow. And until very recently, the SEC was the global gold standard for investor protection. Well, that’s gone. The SEC under Trump has now moved from investor protection to management protection. It is as captured as, unfortunately, the Fed in many respects. It is cutting back on disclosures and investor rights.
For example, they’re even interfering with proxy advisors. It’s very difficult if you’re an investor to keep track of the proxies at all the public companies. The big investors have to vote on director appointments or major policy questions, so they hire proxy advisors, just like you would hire an advisor for anything else. Well, the SEC is now interfering with people hiring advisors to give them advice on proxies. How can you say I can’t contract with somebody to give me independent advice? They’re interfering with that because it makes investors more dependent upon management.
Krugman: Just explain to me how that works. How is the SEC blocking that? I’m just curious because that sounds important.
Kelleher: It is important, and the details are on our website. But at a very high level, there are two big proxy advisor firms that have a large amount of the market. And what you would do is hire them to provide tailored advice. For example, if you were interested in companies that were socially active and cared about the climate, you could tell your proxy advisor you want advice related to that. If you were on the other side and you loved fossil fuels, you could tell them that and the proxy advisor will tailor it to you. You then pay them, right? What the SEC said in one of its proposed rules—I’m not kidding—is that the proxy advisor had to submit any comment about a company to the company’s management, and management had the right to comment on it. Well, it’s the exact opposite of independent advice. How that’s even constitutional is beyond me.
The proxy advisory firms have been engaged in litigation I believe in Trump I and in Trump two, about the restrictions that they’re trying to put on independent proxy advice. It’s just one example. I actually put out a report called The SEC is Demolishing Investor Protection, Threatening Capital Formation and the US Economy, which detailed many of the actions they’re taking.
But the problem we have is that this isn’t just an issue for rich investors; it impacts the entire economy. One of the reasons people all over the world send their money to the United States capital markets is because they are well-regulated and well-policed. They’re not going to do that if those protections are gone. There’s already been reporting about people thinking about putting their money elsewhere. Now, because the US stock market is doing so well, you could argue it’s still a safe bet. By and large, there’s no other place that can compete robustly with the United States at the moment. Leave aside whether it’s a bubble or not. As an investment vehicle, it’s one of the top global places to put your money.
Well, that’s because—and this is what they don’t get, Paul—they are well-regulated and well-policed. You take that away, and you’re going to end up with crooked, rigged markets where you don’t know what happens to your money. And if that happens, that doesn’t just hurt the rich people who own most of the financial assets. That’s going to have impacts all the way down the capital formation pipeline to the real economy and people’s jobs.
Krugman: Okay. I was completely unaware that the SEC was doing all of that. But I just want to move on a bit. Better Markets has been writing quite a lot about crypto. Crypto has suddenly faded from public attention because there’s so much else going on, like AI. But crypto is still a two trillion dollar asset class. Talk to me about crypto and where it fits into all of this.
Kelleher: Well, to start with, we have been the tip of the spear fighting crypto since 2020. We were the leading opponents of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried back in ‘21 and ‘22 when he was trying to buy all of Washington and get his predatory model approved by the CFTC. In fact, we were so much of a thorn in their side that Sam called and came into the office for ninety minutes to try to convince me to support him. Unfortunately, there are so few people active at the CFTC, which is where he was trying to get his predatory model adopted.
Krugman: This is Sam Bankman-Fried who came in to talk to you. Okay.
Kelleher: Yeah, him and his bipartisan phalanx of advisors, because he bought everybody. For ninety minutes he tried to convince us. We didn’t know about his crimes obviously—but he clearly had an entire business model that was financially predatory. It was basically: “If we get rid of all these customer and investor protections, I can make a lot of money.” And I was like, “Well, anybody can make a lot of money.” You could make a lot of money building buildings if you don’t put in fire escapes or fire doors. It doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. That was essentially what Sam Bankman-Fried was trying to do in the derivatives markets, and we opposed him.
He also thought he could bribe us; he offered us a million dollars or more. Frankly, I could have asked for twenty-five million bucks and I’m sure he would have delivered it in a paper bag. We said no. To my knowledge—and I don’t say this arrogantly, but in sadness—I think we were the only ones in Washington who didn’t take his money. He ended up in the right place.
But Better Markets has been out front on this because there is no legitimate use case for crypto. They’ve had 18 years to come up with one. They keep throwing things up like “an inflation hedge” or “source of stability.” Every one of them has turned out to be baseless. The only real use for crypto is tax evasion, money laundering, and crime. It’s the preferred mechanism of choice for global terrorists, sex traffickers, and rogue nations like North Korea and Iran.
You have to ask yourself why crypto has basically hijacked the political agenda of Washington. It’s because they followed the Sam Bankman-Fried model of buying bipartisan support by spending hundreds of millions of dollars in campaigns. And this is the astonishing thing, Paul, that people don’t know.
Krugman: Okay.
Kelleher: It’s the biggest bait-and-switch in history. In the hundreds of millions of dollars they spend on campaigns, they don’t mention crypto. That’s because they know crypto is toxic. Poll after poll shows crypto is toxic with the American people. Politico and the Wall Street Journal independently looked at the massive amounts of ads bought by the crypto industry supporting candidates in the United States, and not one mentioned crypto. Then they get their friends elected who come to Washington and say, “Crypto voters sent us here,” except not one voter voted based on crypto. They were mostly negative attack ads on extraneous issues.
So crypto has now basically hijacked the agenda. The amount of attention politicians give it is crazy. The Senator from Maryland was recently quoted as saying, “I’m spending virtually all my time on crypto.” If his constituents knew that, they wouldn’t be happy. So here we have a financial product of no social use and massive negative uses that is being integrated with our core banking and financial system. Now, I’m sure it’s a coincidence, Paul, that the President is getting filthy rich on crypto.
The problem is that the downside of crypto is not going to fall only on the people getting rich on it. Once they connect it up to the banking and financial system, which they’re doing across the board, we are going to see problems. In many ways, I think what’s happening now is worse than what happened before the ‘08 crash. Before the ‘08 crash, we had subprime. Well, we not only have financial craziness going on, we have this entirely new multi-trillion dollar financial product that has no value, is incredibly volatile, and is rife with conflicts of interest. It is going to be a core part of our banking system within the next twelve to thirty-six months.
Krugman: Okay. This is a broader question of what happened to the political system. Massive campaign spending, but also a lot of effective bribery. You’ve been going after that. And it is kind of shockingly bipartisan. I mean, obviously, nobody has ever been “bribed.” The bribery of Donald Trump is, as he would say, “like nothing anybody’s ever seen before.” But it does extend across the political spectrum. You’ve been writing about that, right?
Kelleher: Well, unfortunately, it has. Any ordinary person looking at what’s happening would think it was bribery. Unfortunately, it’s not technically bribery because the Supreme Court has made that almost impossible to prove in a political context. So we have politicians taking massive amounts of money from the crypto industry and then prioritizing their special interests over the American people. Poll after poll—and we have this on our website—shows that very few people in America use or own crypto. These are not our polls; these are from Pew and other non-industry sources. Even the FDIC and the Federal Reserve’s own surveys show this.
If you look at the polls looking at what voters think, including one right before the 2024 election that looked at swing voters in six states, 68% of them had a negative view of crypto. That’s why crypto doesn’t mention crypto in its ads. But you have all this money coming into the political system, and now Democrats want that money too. Their view is: “Elections cost a lot of money. We need to neutralize this money cannon from crypto.”
Therefore, they deliver for them so the industry doesn’t fire that money cannon against them—or better yet, gives them some of it. They do that directly through campaigns, independent expenditures, and Super PACs. They also do it through the revolving door where the industry hires former public officials, including Congressmen and Senators. They purchase them like you go to a vending machine. They give them a ton of money, and next thing you know, they’re mouthpieces for the crypto industry. They also hire lobbyists who are family members of very important people.
There was a story that Senator Gillibrand’s twenty-two-year-old son has founded a company.
That company is being funded by billionaires and other financial types because apparently he has a brilliant idea and they randomly found him in a phone book, Paul. Everybody is pretending it has nothing to do with the fact that his mother is a powerful Senator from New York who is
the leading cheerleader for crypto special interests. She also happens to be the chair of the DSCC—the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee—which raises the money to elect Senate Democrats.
You can just read the media reports. You have to ask yourself: how are all these billionaires putting money into this startup? The spokesperson said these people are “longtime friends” of the son. When you’re twenty-two years old, how do “longtime friends” really work? Where do you run into billionaires? I know if you’re a Princeton professor they’re all over the place, but where I come from, running into a billionaire just isn’t common. Getting them to give you money for a startup at twenty-two might be the American Dream, but it ain’t working the way it’s supposed to.
Krugman: I’m not a Princeton professor anymore, and there are very few billionaires at the City University of New York. But okay, there’s so much here. Any quick thoughts about AI? It’s monopolizing attention, but where is the financial side of that?
Kelleher: I think in some ways it is monopolizing attention too much, and in other ways it’s not getting enough attention in the right places. We think that we’ve got a huge problem here. AI is inevitable; the real issue is what the safety features will be. Cars were a great innovation, but they killed a lot of people until we got airbags and protective glass. There is a fight now between people who think AI should proceed unregulated and those who think it should have regulation. We think you need a balance.
The American people are on to this. They know it’s going to impact them. For one, these gigantic data centers are sucking up electricity and driving up bills, straining the electrical grid to the point where the entire country could be subject to blackouts. But also, AI is going to have a very big impact on whether you get a loan or at what rate. It’s not just your energy bill; it’s your local bank. When everything becomes automated, how does a community bank keep up?
Community banks provide loans to the auto dealer or the local grocery store. They are going to come under enormous pressure because they can’t keep up with the infrastructure spending they’ll need. We have some ideas on how to strengthen them because they are so vital to our economy—providing 40% of small business lending. You lose community banks, you lose small business.
And then there’s the gigantic banks’ use of AI with infrastructure and spending. Community Banks are gonna need to make major investments if they’re gonna keep up. I mean, as I said earlier, forty percent of the lending to small business in the United States comes from community banks. You lose community banks, you lose small business, you lose community. So that’s just one way, but it’s all the way up the chain.
Another issue is that the people writing the algorithms are importing their own bias. Who’s guarding against that? There’s the “fat finger” problem where traders make mistakes, but who is testing AI machines pre-deployment? Representative Ro Khanna from California has made this point before, as have others. Truthfully, whether you like him or not, or you agree or don’t agree, you should listen to him because he’s got lots of thought provoking ideas on topical issues people really need to think about, and this is one of them.
It’s like thinking: “Let’s open a nuclear plant in our neighborhood.” Everybody would say you wouldn’t do that without checking a million things first. AI is the same, if not worse, because it’s less visible. Better Markets is putting out a “people-centered agenda” on how we should find the right balance so we can get the best of AI while avoiding the bad parts—many of which are unknown. We shouldn’t be putting AI on autopilot. And you know, just like we’re not letting cars on the road running on autopilot without thoroughly testing them and making sure they’re not going to kill everybody. We sure as heck shouldn’t be putting out AI on autopilot.
Krugman: Okay. This altogether makes me justifiably much more nervous.
Kelleher: Then, let me end on an up note. I thought your piece this morning on jury duty service was interesting. I’m optimistic because the vast majority of the American people are reasonable and community-minded. The problem we have is that there’s so much money flooding into the system, and that money represents the extremes. The extremes are buying the political system. We need to figure out how to get more Americans involved so the reasonable people can have civil conversations. I do think most Americans agree on striking a balance within a reasonable range. Our problem is a Supreme Court empowering billionaires, and we have a president that doesn’t care about laws, norms, customs, or rules.
What we’re trying to do at Better Markets—we just did this with our SEC campaign—is engage people. We engaged retail investors, and to our shock, two hundred thousand of them commented on an SEC rule. That is a historic high. So there are people out there, and we need to identify them and get them engaged. If we do, then I believe the core of the American Dream can be reflected in our political system.
Krugman:
I think that’s an upbeat note on which to end. Thanks so much.
The reality is to make augmented reality glasses, you need to put a camera next to your eyes that is continuously recording everything you see and processing that to put information over it.
There is not another way around it. And there's certainly not a chip that can fit in the stem of a glasses that is both powerful enough and power miserly enough to do that in real time.
You have to send that data to a cloud. You gotta do it. [...] Or you can build something the size of a Vision Pro with a battery pack that lives somewhere else. Those are the current choices in this world.
And it means if you want to build the product that everyone thinks is the next thing, you are going to have to invade people's privacy.
And maybe you shouldn't. Like, there's an incredible argument for, nope, you shouldn't do that. Nope, the trade-offs required to make this product are so high at a societal level that we should stop it.
— Nilay Patel, The Vergecast
Tags: ai-ethics, augmented-reality, nilay-patel, privacy, ai
1. The tiny economist on my shoulder.
2. Beethoven in Indian classical raga.
3. Too many books? (NYT)
4. Roon on slop.
5. MIE. Taylor Swift.
6. Rolling Stones fact of the day.
8. Seb Krier.
The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
I’ve recently been thinking a lot about the concept of “soil horizons”, which is the idea that there are many distinct layers of soil, from topsoil all the way down to bedrock, which all combine into a soil horizon. Translating this idea into software, the ideal codebase would have a single uniform “code layer”, but a surprisingly large percentage of production software has numerous, distinct code layers as the leading architect shifted over time. I’ve found this particularly true for software in problem-spaces with high essential complexity and low scale complexity, where the purifying challenges of scaling never create enough pressure to compact disjoint layers into a unified layer.
Codebases with the most code layers tend to be created by small teams working on complex domains over a long period of time. In many companies this might be an identity, permissions or payments team: stuff that’s permanently valuable, but usually not the central concern at any given time. On such teams, there is often only one architect who understands the nuances of the domain well enough to make tradeoffs. When that architect leaves, they are replaced by someone who aspires to operate in the same code layer, but simply cannot because they lack enough context to do so. As a result, that new replacement creates a new code layer, despite not intending to. If the team runs through a handful of folks as the new team leads struggle, it’s easy to end up with a complex code horizon very quickly.

The problem of messy code horizons is not a new one, and the general approach to addressing them is the same one I wrote about seven years ago in Reclaim unreasonable software, but with the proliferation of coding and non-coding harnesses, lately I’m running into the problem of messy code horizons more frequently. Even more concerning, I’m seeing this problem expand from impacting code horizons into impacting how organizations make decisions outside of software, e.g. the company’s general reasoning horizons. When individuals or teams rely on LLMs to reason to conclusions, rather than using LLMs to explore or draft options, it’s possible for even the most important decisions to be built on top of flawed reasoning layers underneath.
In the next section, I’ll develop the problem statement a bit about what I’m running into, and then in the final section I’ll lay out the approaches that I am finding (moderately) effective to navigate that problem.
If you give three enthusiastic engineers a problem, a new codebase, a coding harness, and self-approval rights, it’s very easy to end up with three new soil horizons as their harnesses gleefully commit code. However, in engineering we have a number of techniques to derisk this problem. First, we have manual and automated code review, and second we increasingly have the ability for the harnesses to operate off sufficiently clear instructions that they write new code consistently with the existing code, even if the operator is unaware of what good looks like. This is also true for code review, where coding harnesses can drive consistency across pull requests even if the person (or harness) creating the pull requests is not operating off the same shared context as the wider team.
Many codebases are not well-configured for this new reality, and those codebases are getting worse at an accelerating rate as more harness and agent contributions get added. Legacy codebases that reach a certain size before introducing these better practices are easier to fix than before, but still require a lot of work to fix.
That said, I’m confident that coding harnesses are going to substantially improve the quality of code horizons over the next year or two as the way we configure harnesses improves. That’s not the problem I’m worried about. What I’m worried about is the application of harnesses to problems outside of writing software, where there’s no static typing, linting, or unit tests to validate the output.
Let me provide a very recent example from my own work that highlights this problem: I wanted to understand how our incidents were trending over time. So I pulled data via an MCP, and the analysis was unintuitive to me, in particular I thought we were having more Data related incidents than the results reflected. I had to look at the incidents in Slack, then the results in our incident tool, and understand why the two conflicted. After a bit, I recognized the results in our incident tool were only showing incidents that properly tagged a team when the alert was triggered, so it was omitting about half the relevant incidents. After having the agent manually tag the incidents without team assignments, the data made a lot more sense. After recognizing the issue, it was trivial to fix. However, if I had simply accepted the initial analysis, I would have made the perfectly wrong conclusion about what was happening. On top of that wrong conclusion, I could have easily pushed the team to take on a project to solve an illusionary problem.
What’s so pernicious about messy reasoning horizons, is once any reasoning layer is poisoned, it’s impossible to reason effectively on top of it. If you take the incident analysis example, it’s easy to imagine prioritizing the perfectly wrong set of remediations, which have the artifacts of solid strategic reasoning, but are nonetheless just wrong. It’s easy to imagine a team wasting a quarter of time building a solution to this sort of problem that never existed.
It’s true that poor reasoning has always existed, long before harnesses, but my experience is that poor reasoning wearing well-formatted clothing is proliferating more widely than I’ve previously seen, and it is increasingly difficult to combat because certain social norms are – at least temporarily – collapsing around folks actually thinking. That collapse is largely driven by unprincipled adoption of AI techniques without paying attention to whether they work. Widespread adoption is, in my opinion, the fundamental risk for most companies at the moment, and something companies need to be doing, but many approaches inadvertently mix play (experimenting with something new in ways that are likely to fail!) with production (creating load-bearing work product!) in ways that erode social norms for quality.
The norms are not uniformly collapsing by any means, they are generally intact, but even a small increase in the proliferation of low quality reasoning layers has a devastating effect on your ability to reason successfully. Especially true the further up the poor reasoning occurs (sloppy reasoning from senior leaders) or when senior leaders rely on layers of reasoning without inspection (leaders who aren’t sufficiently “in the details” to spot likely reasoning errors in reasoning layers).
As a result, we now live in a world where accepting any part of the reasoning context before inspecting it might lead to making a catastrophic mistake. This is an exhausting way to live.
Accepting that this is the world we live in, I wanted to lay out the techniques that I am finding useful to deal with it. Some of these are novel, but many of them are the same techniques I was using before the LLM-advent:
Make no assumptions. When new hires join my team or my company, the first thing I tell them is that it’s essential that they “make no assumptions.” This is difficult to do, and it goes against every instinct because it forces you to inspect each aspect of how the company works and thinks, but I do think it’s the necessary approach. It’s a bit like learning “internet-skepticism” at some point in your life, where you realize that everything on the internet is self-motivated in some way, and you have to maintain a strict filter on what ideas you accept.
This is a hard change to make, but I genuinely believe this is the correct mindset for accepting new information in the current era. The combination of fewer management layers and more flawed reasoning layers means that the core job of leadership is inspecting the details.
The author must be the first human in the loop for their output. The biggest cultural failure with harnesses is when you can tell that you–the recipient of a piece of work–are the first human in the loop reviewing it. You must set a cultural norm that the creator of a piece of content is always the first human in the loop before asking another human to review it. If you fail to set that cultural expectation, then you will quickly crush the remaining team with a high standard for quality reasoning, which will lead to a full destruction of your reasoning horizon.
Prioritize reasonable software. Run the Reclaim unreasonable software playbook, recognizing that migrations are cheap in 2026, so it’s much faster to remediate gaps. The core idea here is that relying on convention doesn’t work, and instead you have to rely on deterministic decisioning for each approach. For humans this can feel overly prescriptive, but harnesses don’t care.
Learn faster by separating play and production. Many folks trying to learn how to use harnesses and LLMs leap directly into using them in their most critical work. This is a slow way to learn, and can lead to substantial errors in your most critical work. It’s much faster to work by buffering small pockets of time to learn.
For example, our head of data has spent time building an iOS app fully “hands off the keyboard” to get a better feel for the tools. This sort of experiment goes much faster and gives you more repetitions in less time. The very practical version of this is setting aside a day or two periodically for folks to experiment.
Structure how you think with LLMs. In Crafting Engineering Strategy, I lay out a structured approach to reasoning through creating a strategy document, which aims to prevent the reasoning errors that folks make in their thinking. This applies equally in how we use LLMs, and I think you can substantially reduce the chance of introducing flawed reasoning layers by focusing LLM work on exploration (gathering information on internet and via various MCPs), refinement (presenting gathered information effectively), and a final formatting pass. That takes much of the work out of strategy creation while constraining the areas you have to avoid making any assumptions about its output.
I’m certain there are more things! What are you trying?
I was in a conversation today where folks rolling out a new product were apologetic that they couldn’t (yet) serve all the users who wanted to use the product. I took a moment to remind the team that from a 3X: Explore/Expand/Extract perspective, limiting usage is an outstandingly positive sign.
When folks say negative things to you, it can feel bad. Put…
Felix Salmon talked to me about Moral Economics:
Money Talks: The Economics of Repugnant Transactions, with Felix Salmon on Slate.
"Nobel Prize winner Alvin Roth explains what we learn when markets are shaped by big ethical questions."
Here's one snippet:
"Speaker A: You have a pretty long chapter on same sex marriage in the book where you go through the sort of legislative history both in various states and the country. And after, like reading so much of the history of this, I would say, like, this is so Slate, I’m going to just come out and say that 95% plus of our listeners are perfectly fine with same sex marriage. It seems perfectly normal to us. It’s kind of hard for us to imagine why it was that we ever had a problem with it in the first place. But you went back, you Were looking at a bunch of contemporaneous literature. Do you have a sympathy for the anti side of the debate? Do you see where they were coming from?
Speaker B: Well, I think I see where they were coming from. I can do that without having necessarily a lot of sympathy for them. But they were tooled up quite early on. So for a long time in the United States, there were laws against sex that sometimes had the names unnatural acts in them. And in California, and I’m going to fudge the dates now, but sometime in the 1970s, long before there was any same sex marriage, they decided that laws against same sex sex violated the equal rights provisions of the California constitution. And so they changed them. They made those laws unconstitutional. And almost immediately after, like two years after, in the 1970s, the California legislature passed a law against same sex marriage. That is, the people who were looking into the far future and thinking that they really hated same sex marriage had felt protected by the laws against consensual sex between adults of, you know, say, sodomy. And all of a sudden they felt unprotected. So long before any same sex marriage became legal in the United States, there started to be laws against it.
Speaker A: That’s kind of wild. You’re just, you’re sort of like cutting it off at the past. It’s not legal anywhere. No one’s even trying to make it legal. We’re going to make it illegal just in case. And we saw that at the federal level as well.
Speaker B: Absolutely. When the state of Massachusetts finally, when its courts finally legalized same sex marriage in Massachusetts, the federal government passed a law called the defense of marriage act, which was intended to defend marriage against same sex marriage. So that’s a really unusual state of affairs. And again, when I say that’s a repugnant transaction, One of the things I emphasize in the book is I don’t mean that I disapprove of it or that you should, but that some people do. And the long political fight makes it clear that the people who objected to it objected very strongly.
Speaker A: I mean, I was around for a lot of these court cases and legislative moves, but even at the time, I didn’t entirely understand where the opponents were coming from. So is it mostly like a biblical thing?
Speaker B: So I think it’s partly a religious thing and some of that is biblical. There were some passages in Hebrew Bible even that could be interpreted as disapproving of same sex relations. And when you look back at the long history of humanity, there were lots of taboos about sex. And I think one way to think of them is, for most of human history, sex between a man and a woman often resulted in pregnancy, and pregnancy often resulted in a live birth in a baby. And society has and had some interest in making sure that babies were taken care of. And one way to do that is to say babies should be born into families, and therefore before people have sex, they should be married to each other. And so there are a whole set of taboos that might be thought of as society’s way of trying to take care of babies. But of course, technology changes. And contraception, reliable contraception, means that it’s possible to have sex without too much risk of a baby. In vitro fertilization, IVF means that it’s possible to have babies without sex. So all of a sudden, some of those barriers that may have seem essential to the orderly running of society didn’t seem so essential. And I think that opened up room for us to think more about who could have sex with whom and who could form a family with whom.
NASA this week released a much-anticipated document, known as a "draft Request for Proposals," that provides some clarity about what it expects from US companies attempting to build privately operated space stations in low-Earth orbit.
The stakes are high with this document, known as a draft RFP. The space agency, publicly, has set an end date for the International Space Station of 2030. Although there is likely to be a two-year extension, time is still running short to build, test, and fly a vehicle as complex as a space station. NASA officials and the US Congress have both said they want to avoid a gap in having a human presence in orbit, and this has created considerable urgency about what comes next.
Nearly five years ago the space agency took a concrete step toward filling this gap, awarding funding to three companies to develop space station concepts. Previously, NASA had also provided $140 million to another space station company, Axiom Space. These Space Act Agreements were intended as a prelude to a second phase of the program, which would award substantially more funding to one or two more companies to proceed into the construction and launch of their space stations. But phase two of the program kept getting delayed, in part because Congress dithered on funding.
Welcome to Edition 9.02 of the Rocket Report! Our attention in the coming days turns to Asia, where there are a couple of notable rocket debuts. Up first is the Long March 10B on Friday, a medium-lift rocket with a reusable first stage. After launch this stage will attempt a landing on a recovery ship. Then, as early as Sunday, the private Indian company Skyroot may attempt to launch its first rocket, Vikram-1.
As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
RFA sets launch date for August. Almost two years after an RFA One first stage burst into flames during a static fire test, German rocket-builder Rocket Factory Augsburg is preparing for a second attempt at the rocket’s inaugural flight from SaxaVord Spaceport in Scotland, European Spaceflight reports. The launch window will open on August 10, the Spaceport said in its announcement.
June was mostly warmer than average in California, but without exceptional heat and with robust coastal marine layer; large and destructive wildfires explode across Southern Rockies amid strong winds and extreme drought June was a relatively warm month across much of the western U.S. compared to long-term averages, though record warmth was limited to the […]
The post Exceptionally broad and persistent west-central U.S. ridging to bring periods of elevated heat and monsoon moisture to CA and the SW, with record heat across Intermountain West first appeared on Weather West.
He is from the star musical group Mumford & Sons, but is also an excellent podcaster. Here is the episode, recorded before the Fable ban was lifted:
Of course I do sneak in some music analogies, including a mention of Dock Boggs.
The post Winston Marshall podcasts with me on AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Mr Stallard has been working for a decade to corroborate this revelation. His findings have, if anything, become even more striking. Last year he and some colleagues published research in the Journal of the American Medical Association showing that, whereas 40 years ago three in every ten Americans aged 85-89 had dementia, by 2024 just one in ten had it (see chart 1). What is more, America is not the only beneficiary of this trend. Between 1988 and 2015 the share of older people being diagnosed with dementia fell by 13% a decade across six countries in North America and Europe, according to a study of almost 50,000 people by Frank Wolters of the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, and colleagues.
Some smaller studies have also found big declines. Data from the Framingham Heart Study, which has tracked three generations in an American town, show an average drop in new dementia cases of 20% per decade over almost 40 years between the late 1970s and early 2010s. Those who were entering their dotage when Daft Punk’s “Get Lucky” was topping the charts (2013) were 44% less likely to have dementia than those who were doing so when Sting was urging Roxanne to switch off her red light (1978).
Whereas most earlier studies had simply pooled elderly people and then applied a statistical adjustment for age, Mr Stallard looked at narrow bands of ages to compare different cohorts of people over 50 years. By examining the changes between each successive cohort, he calculates that dementia rates have been declining by 2.5-3% for each calendar-year cohort.
Here is more from Jonathan Rosenthal at The Economist. You can think of this as the new instantiation of the Flynn Effect…
The post Progress against dementia appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
HüSKER Dü WERE A TRIO from Minneapolis. Guitarist Bob Mould and drummer Grant Hart sang and wrote the songs. Greg Norton played bass guitar and chipped in on vocals.
A punk band, you would have to call them, as throughout the early and mid-1980s they toured and recorded primarily within the ecosystem of the American hardcore punk scene. At heart, though, they were always something else. They fit in, you could say, without quite fitting in.
“Hüsker Dü seemingly defined the punk ethos,” wrote Terry Katzmann, one of the band’s longtime friends once put it, “without necessarily embracing or endorsing it.” Perfectly put.
The band could play louder and faster than anyone alive. When this got constraining, they’d bring in 60s-style pop hooks, psychedelia, heavy metal. Often at once, which to me is the kernel of what made them great. They were never powerful or something else. They were both, everything, all at the same time.
This blending of styles alienated many of the more orthodox fans within the punk scene. It also won the acclaim of many more, and it’s by no means a stretch to consider Hüsker Dü one of the most influential acts ever to emerge from the American underground.
Before its stormy demise in late 1987, the band would release six full-length albums, two EPs, and a catalog of singles and extras. But the pinnacle of all that output was Zen Arcade, first delivered to stores in July, 1984, by California-based SST records.
I remember the day I bought it. Newbury Comics — the one on Newbury Street — on a midweek afternoon, sunny and hot. I was eighteen years-old.
We knew there was an album coming coming out, but weren’t sure when, exactly, it would hit the racks. In these pre-Internet times, news of such things was always unclear and came sporadically, delivered by college radio or gleaned through your network of friends. Sometimes it was a paper flyer glued to a mailbox or tacked to a record shop bulletin board. Nobody was a bigger Hüsker Dü fan than I was, but this latest album, due in the stores at any moment — I didn’t even know the title.
Suddenly there it was, on a rack up front. It was called Zen Arcade, whatever the heck that meant. I picked it up and, hey, what’s this, it’s a double album! As a teenage punk rocker weaned on Black Flag and Minor Threat, with a rather one-dimensional appreciation for music, the very weight of the thing, together with the heady title and the washed-over, almost Impressionist cover art was intimidating. It seemed so arty and grown-up. It also made me curious. What was this strange record?
What it was, and what it remains almost forty years later, is the greatest indie-rock album of all time — if not, in my extraordinarily biased opinion, the greatest rock album, period.
“The most important and relevant double album to be released since the Beatles’ White Album,” bragged SST’s own press release. There was some confidence for you, to say the least, when you consider the world of underground music in 1984. This was not only an obscure band, but an entire musical domain that existed far below the mainstream waterline. Then as now, the idea of comparing a little-known indie band to the Beatles seemed at best pretentious and at worst totally absurd.
Was it?
Twenty-three songs is a lot of music, but this is one the rare two-record sets that isn’t bogged down by its own overreaching or conceit. The scourge of most double LPs, back when there was such a thing, is they went on for too long — padded with live cuts, covers, and extras (heck even London Calling has its throw-aways). There’s no filler in Zen Arcade. Each and every song, from the shortest (44 seconds) to the longest (14 minutes), belongs exactly in its place.
Yes, that includes “The Tooth Fairy and the Princess.” The longest-named song on the record is probably the most easily dismissed. But it’s a clever little tempest, littered with switchbacks and small melodic explosions.
The album is best savored not as a CD — and for heaven’s sake not as a download — but in the old, cardboard-and-vinyl package. That’s a quintessentially record-snobbish thing to say, but unavoidable in this case, where each of the four sides is a distinct chapter with its own temperature and architecture.

Greg Norton, Grant Hart, and Bob Mould, circa 1984.
Photo by Naomi Petersen.
Side one gets going without the slightest fuss, with the snap and kick of Bob Mould’s “Something I Learned Today,” eventually winding down with “Hare Krsna,” a booming, tambourine-backed instrumental (mostly).
The first time I heard “Hare Krsna,” sizzling over the stereo in a Boston area record shop not long after the album’s release, I remember the young clerk furrowing his brow, looking up toward the speakers and saying, “Somebody needs to write a dissertation about this song.” I couldn’t care less if they were plagiarizing a Bo Diddley riff; “Hare Krsna” is a mesmerizing, three-and-a-half minute cyclone of melodic chaos that still gives me the chills. Listen to Mould hitting the strings at time 0:44.
Side one alone is unforgettable. And there are three more to go. This is the ultimate workhorse album from the ultimate workhorse band, one so rich with sonic nooks and crannies that an in-depth listen leaves you not only battling tinnitus, but tired. So many changes from fast to slow, hard to soft, love to hate, all in perfect working sequence. And each side-break is a perfectly placed respite. I can’t think of a more brilliantly arranged opus than Zen Arcade. “The closest hardcore punk will ever get to an opera,” wrote David Fricke of Rolling Stone.
Indeed, this is a proverbial concept album — a musical story, in the spirit of the Who’s Tommy, allegedly describing the journey and tribulations of a young man. He leaves home, maybe joins a cult, maybe joins the Army…whatever. Alt-rock historians love reminding us about this, but you’re free to ignore it. Any lyrical backstory is incidental to the record’s impressiveness.
You’ll find a gamut of effects: acoustic guitar, chairs being thrown, waves breaking, whispers and chants. There’s even the breezy piano of “Monday Will Never be the Same.” (If Ken Burns ever directs a documentary about the history of alt-rock, the tinkling of “Monday” needs to be its backing theme.) Such eclectics are brave, maybe, for what was supposedly a punk album, but they never become maudlin or melodramatic. If you think today’s co-opted rockers are clever with the tempo card, shifting from tough to tender, check out Grant Hart’s “Never Talking to You Again,” a sing-along from side one done entirely in 12-string acoustic. “Heartfelt” is the word that jumps to mind, but it’s not the syrupy strum you’d hear nowadays. The song is biting and sharp — an attack. Ditto for “Standing By the Sea,” with Hart’s cathartic bellows set against bassist Greg Norton’s eerie thrum and the soothe of a crashing surf.
Back in ’84, the rock critic Robert Christgau chose Hart’s “Turn On the News,” from side four, as his “song of the year.” Christgau said many flattering things about Hüsker Dü, but that one was the gimmie pick, like saying the Concorde is your favorite airplane. It’s an easy song to like, but an even easier one to outgrow. If the album has a best song, it’s probably Bob Mould’s neo-pscychedelic “Chartered Trips,” the fourth cut off side one. (“Trips” is almost Mould’s single greatest work, topped only by his spectacular rendition of the Byrds’ “Eight Miles High,” released as a single just prior to Zen Arcade.)
Runner-up would be Hart’s “Pink Turns to Blue,” from side three. Officially the credits for this one list both Mould and Hart, but really this is Grant’s piece. He took all the hook and melody of his earlier masterpiece, “It’s Not Funny Anymore,” and sandblasted it into a haunting anthem of love, drugs, and death. The song is simply gorgeous — and a little bit terrifying. Score it ahead of “Chartered Trips” if you want. I’m not going to argue.

September, 1984, in the dressing room at the Channel.
Boston Rock magazine.
“Pink Turns to Blue” follows “One Step at a Time,” a brief piano time-out that, as much as anything else, allows the listener to catch his or her breath. The pregnant pause between the last note of “One Step” and the opening chord of “Pink” is like those one or two seconds between a lightning bolt and a thunderclap, and is one of the record’s strongest moments. It reminds me of the similarly unforgettable transition into “Sweet Jane” on the Velvet Underground’s Loaded album.
Before going further, I’m aware how this favorite songs thing can turn tedious pretty quickly. Grant Hart himself once offered a disclaimer: “People will always embrace different songs for different reasons,” he told me. “A song that might seem terrible filler, serving only to move the story along, will be someone’s favorite on the album. Bob and I were both responsible for those kind of songs.” Of my beloved “Hare Krsna” Grant claims that he was merely “furthering the story without adding much musically.” Hart felt similarly about some of Mould’s thrashier and more “hardcore” material.
To his point, not all of the album is easy to like and, depending on your ear and level of patience, the value of certain songs might not reveal itself for some time. For me it was twenty years before the first four songs from side two (Mould at his most furious) finally clicked. They’d always been so noisy and formless. Suddenly they weren’t. This was partly a context thing, maybe: the album, like wine, getting better not despite its age, but because of it. It took the overall shittiness of music in the 21st century to underscore the greatness of cuts like “Pride” and “The Biggest Lie” — mere footnotes in 1984. They’re awesome songs, at once explosive and subtle, but buried amidst so many other and perhaps better choices, that even the band’s most devoted fans tend to skip them over.
Similarly it was decades before I learned to appreciate “Broken Home, Broken Heart,” the second song on the album, for the gem that it is, tucked anonymously between “Something I Learned Today” and Hart’s “Never Talking to You Again,” with Norton’s bass stealing the show. And that a supposed punk rock album could jump from the fury of “Broken Home” to the acoustic beauty of “Never Talking”, without so much as a flinch, was a watershed in American music.
Though not entirely a surprise. Even at breakneck velocity there always was something ineffably refined and just, well, different about Hüsker Dü. If pressed to explain, one might break out 1982’s Everything Falls Apart EP. Amidst side one’s hypsersonic avalanche is Hart’s cover of Donovan’s 1966 hit, “Sunshine Superman.” Playful, perhaps, on the face of it, until you hear how un-ironic the remake is, without a note’s worth of smirk or parody. This wasn’t a joke.
Later, on his solo tours, Bob Mould would often play acoustic versions of some of the hardest and fastest Hüsker Dü songs — cuts like “In a Free Land” or “Celebrated Summer” — and the results were startlingly pretty. That’s just not going to work if you’re Black Flag, the Dead Kennedys or Bad Brains. Or Nirvana. Run even the noisiest Hüsker song through a centrifuge and something elegant reveals itself.

Concert flyer, Boston, 1984. Author’s Collection.
With its blend of hippie love and hard rock thunder, Zen Arcade would, in a way, finish the job that the Velvet Underground and even the Beatles had tinkered with earlier. But while the blending of power/pop extremes was nothing new, the Hüskers pulled it off in a way that was never gimmicky (not until their lazy cover of “Love is All Around,” the Mary Tyler Moore Show theme, in 1986), and, most remarkably, did so on such terrain –- the American hardcore punk scene –- where nobody expected it or even believed it possible.
“A strenuous refutation of hardcore orthodoxy,” as Michael Azerrad puts it in his book, Our Band Could Be Your Life: Scenes from the American Indie Underground, 1981-1991. “Zen Arcade was the final word on the [punk rock] genre, a scorching of musical earth. The album wasn’t only about Hüsker Dü coming of age — it was about an entire musical movement coming of age.”
Zen Arcade is the album Nirvana and its contemporaries only wish they could have made: intelligent, clamorous, and hashing out more torment and passion in four sides than all the grungers and headbangers since. All without a hint of heavy metal pretension: to think anyone could concoct a fourteen-minute bombast of guitar leads and layered distortion — “Reoccurring Dreams,” side four — and have it not come out self-indulgently.
All right, maybe it’s a little self-indulgent. But listen carefully enough and you’ll learn that “Dreams” can be parsed into six or seven subsections, each of them breaking through to the next, right in the nick of time. The song is long, but never wears out its welcome. It belongs there, in its entirety. An epic album deserves an epic close.
And when the 40-second whine at the end of “Dreams” is at last pinched off, the album burning to a close in a congealed, numbing squeal, the silence that follows is palpable, as dramatic as any of record’s loudest moments. Only then, as your senses regain their composure, is it apparent that your notions of punk rock are changed forever.
But not everybody, however — not even Grant Hart — has openly accepted such lavish praise. Chatting over email some years ago, Grant described Zen to me as “the album that fans tend to wear on their sleeves.” Did he mean people like me? Have I been too sentimentally fond of it for some reason?
“The impact of Zen Arcade on the Zeitgeist is hilarious to me,” Grant went on. “Hilarious in the almost alchemical-mechanical way it has been embraced by true music fans and hipster-flipsters alike. When somebody states that Zen is their favorite LP, I get the notion to ask why. As we move further from the time it was released, it seems I get more honest answers.”
My honest answer is that I like it the best because it sounds the best, and by the sum of its parts it is the best. And for the record, Zen Arcade is not my “favorite” Husker Dü LP. New Day Rising is my “favorite” Husker Dü LP. But that’s getting personal. When you look at it objectively, Zen is the better and more profound of the two.
Hüsker Dü were nothing if not prolific. A mere six months after Zen Arcade came New Day Rising, which woke the country from its winter freeze in January, 1985. These are two best albums of the 1980s, and they appeared within six months of each other!
Eight month’s after that came “Flip Your Wig,” the band’s last album before signing with a major label. Flip suffers from terrible production but is nonetheless memorable, highlighted by Hart’s pièce de résistance, “Keep Hanging On.” Prior to Zen, meanwhile, was Metal Circus, a brilliant seven-song EP from 1983. Together, these four records represent, easily, the most potent 1-2-3-4 punch in the annals of indie music. All released in the astonishing space of less than two years. That’s simply incredible.
In 1986 and 1987, having moved from SST to Warner Brothers, Hüsker Dü released two disappointing and anticlimactic albums,”Candy Apple Gray” and “Warehouse: Songs and Stories.” I’m unsure which of these two records annoys me more, but neither, really, has much place in this conversation. “Candy Apple Grey” does well at the start and finish — I’ve always loved the gothic guitar squall of the opener, “Crystal,” as well as the closer, “All This I’ve Done For You” — but the rest is flyover country, including Bob Mould’s abominable “Too Far Down,” which has to be the ugliest song he ever recorded.
With Warehouse, it’s as if they took Zen Arcade placed it on a table in front of them and said, “Okay how can we ruin this?” Like Zen Arcade, it’s a double LP. Unlike Zen Arcade, it’s bloated with filler. I’ll always love “Back From Somewhere” and “She’s a Woman (and Now He Is a Man),” but the plodding, uninspired likes of “Ice Cold Ice,” “You’re a Soldier,” and too many others, anchor this one at the bottom of the Hüsker canon.
Bob and Grant had their power struggles, but as a songwriting tandem their talents were wonderfully complementary — think Strummer and Jones, or McCartney and Lennon. This was much of what made the band so great. By the time “Warehouse” warbles to a close, clearly this synchronicity is unraveling. Hart, at least, holds his own on this record, while Mould’s songs are overextended and lazy. Depressing as it was, you could say that Hüsker Dü broke up exactly when it needed to.
Meanwhile, unless I’ve missed something, none of the big music magazines or websites gave Zen Arcade so much as a mention on its 20th, 15th, 30th or 40th birthdays. Some years ago Spin awarded it the number four spot on its ranking of the hundred best-ever “alternative” records, and Rolling Stone, in a manic best-of-the-80s list, once gave it lip service at number 33. But what since then? Instead we’ve have bands like Green Day winning Grammys.
For that matter, do younger music fans have any sense of what the 1980s truly were like? This was the richest and most innovative period in the whole history of independent music, but rarely is it acknowledged as such. As popular culture has it, serious rock music skipped the 80s entirely. When pundits do take the decade seriously, we tend to see the same names over and over. It’s both frustrating and unjustified that Hüsker Dü never developed the same posthumous cachet that others of their era did. Like the Replacements, for example, or Sonic Youth. Hüsker Dü could run circles around either of those two, but never became “cool” in quite the same way.
I suppose it’s due to an absence of what you might call sex appeal. To say that Hüsker Dü never cultivated any sort of image, in the usual manner of rock bands, is putting it mildly. For one, they never looked the part. These were big, sweaty, chain-smoking guys who, it often seemed, hadn’t shaved or showered in a while. Norton, trimmest and most dapper of the threesome, wore a handlebar mustache many years before such things were trendy among hipsters. It wasn’t cool; it was odd. And not until their eighth and final album did the band included a photo of itself on an album cover (the scratched-out images on Zen Arcade notwithstanding). It was a small, back-cover pic that almost feels like an afterthought, or something the record company made them do.
This modesty, for lack of a better description, was for some of us a part of what made Hüsker Dü so special. But it has hurt them, I think, in the long run. (As has the fact that only the band’s final two albums are available on iTunes. But that’s another story.)
The idea that the Replacements (much as I loved their debut album, which I consider the best garage-rock record of all time, and which includes a shout-out called “Somethin’to Dü”) were in any way a better or more influential band than Hüsker Dü is too absurd to entertain. Meanwhile the beatification of Sonic Youth, maybe the most overrated outfit of the last forty years, goes on and on. Not long ago Kim Gordon got a profile in the New Yorker. I’m still waiting for one of the writers there to devote a story to Bob Mould.
Or better yet, to Grant Hart. Twenty-five years, more or less, that’s how long it took me, to realize that it was Grant, not Bob, who was the more indispensable songwriter and who leaves the richer legacy. In the old days it was trendy to claim that Grant was the real genius behind Hüsker Dü. You’d be at a party and some asshole would say, “Those guys would be nothing without that drummer.” I’d always scoff that off. The mechanics of the band, for one, made it difficult to accept: Grant was the drummer, after all, and drummers are never the stars. Meanwhile there was Bob, right at the front of the stage with that iconic Flying-V. But those assholes were on to something.
That shouldn’t be an insult to Mould. Not any more than saying John Lennon was a better songwriter than Paul McCartney. Both were brilliant. But when I flip through the Hüsker canon, I can’t help giving Hart the edge. On New Day Rising, for instance, Mould gave us “I Apologize” and “Celebrated Summer.” But Hart gave us “Terms of Psychic Warfare” and “Books About UFOs,” two of the most electrifying songs of the 80s. “It’s Not Funny Anymore,” “Diane,” “Pink Turns to Blue,” the list goes on. Hart’s “She’s a Woman (And Now He is a Man”) from the often intolerable Warehouse album is, to me, a classic sleeper and the most under-appreciated Hüsker song of them all.
His solo work, too, was at least as robust as that of Mould. Songs like “The Main” and “The Last Days of Pompeii” are as good or better than anything Mould has given us post-Hüsker. But while Mould went on to some notoriety and commercial success, Hart labored in comparative obscurity. This was always irritating and unfair.
But Grant, maybe, was all right with this. “I have always based my movements on those of fugitives or criminals,” he once said to me. “The less attention you attract, the freer you remain! I wish to be an artist, not a celebrity.”

Hüsker Dü in 1986. Photo by Daniel Corrigan.
Related Story:
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO THE (SECOND) GREATEST ALBUM OF ALL TIME
Grant Hart died in September, 2017. A few years ago, filmmaker Gorman Bechard released a movie about him. “Every Everything” is 93 minutes of Grant — and only Grant — proving himself to be one of the more oddly captivating storytellers you’ll ever have the pleasure of listening to.
Bechard had previously interviewed Grant for “Color Me Obsessed,” his film about The Replacements, and was taken with him. “Grant is one of the most influential musicians ever,” said Bechard at the time. “Beyond that, he’s as smart and funny as anyone on the planet.”
You may not be familiar with Hart, but he was among the most important songwriters of our time, and “Every Everything” is a brave and absolutely necessary tribute to one of the unsung heroes of modern music. Click the picture for more info…
— The one song I would probably have pruned from Zen Arcade is “Dreams Reoccurring,” the noisy little instrumental from side one. You’ve got the fourteen-minute version later on; do we really need this miniature version too? And the fact that “Indecision Time” isn’t so great either… it creates kind of a dead spot on the first side. In its place I’d have put “Some Kind of Fun,” one of the outtakes.
— The greatest concert I ever attended was an impromptu Husker show at a place called Harvey Wheeler Hall, in Concord, Massachusetts, on December 30th, 1984. It was a last-minute gig arranged by David Savoy, a Concord native who also was the band’s manager at the time (and whose suicide a few years later was partly responsible for its breakup). There was no stage; the band set up on the floor of what, in my memory, was a simple classroom. There were fewer than a hundred people there, and we stood or sat cross-legged. The set ended when Grant cut his finger on a cracked drumstick during a cover of the Beatles’ “Ticket to Ride.” My best friend at the time, Mark McKay (who later became the drummer for the post-hardcore band Slapshot), gave him a band-aid. When it was over we went backstage, as it were, and chatted a while with the band.
— A few years ago, Paul Hilcoff, the curator of the painfully exhaustive Hüsker Dü fan site, mailed me a compact disc recording of that entire concert. I had no idea there was one. What a startling feeling it is to discover, many years on, that a recording exists of one of your most cherished memories. Except, the CD still sits on my bookshelf, as yet unlistened-to. One of these days I’ll summon up the courage to actually play it. Listening to that recording, provided I’ve got the emotional muster, will be the closest I ever get to time travel.
— I once played Frisbee with Bob Mould. June 21, 1984, it was, prior to a show in Easthampton Massachusetts. There were four of us playing: me, Bob, a local Boston fanzine writer named Al Quint, and the aforementioned McKay.
— I once got to meet and shake hands with Bob Mould’s parents. It was that same summer of ’84, in Rhode Island. Mom and dad were touring the country, stopping in on the band’s performances. Bob himself introduced me to them.
— Greg Norton once sat patiently backstage while I peppered him with inane questions for a fanzine article I was writing.
— It was Grant, though, who was always the friendliest and most approachable of the three. I remember a night, between sets down at The Living Room in Providence, chatting with him in the parking lot. He was snacking on slices of cheese, when a stray dog came ambling over. Grant shared his cheese with the dog, holding up small bits of it, ever higher, making the dog jump for them.
— That was the same show in which Mould, rushing toward the stage for an encore, smashed his head against a ceiling rafter so hard that you could hear it from the parking lot. I have a feeling he remembers that.
GREATEST HITS, MOULD:
1. Eight Miles High (single)
2. Chartered Trips (Zen Arcade)
3. I Apologize (New Day Rising)
4. Gravity (Everything Falls Apart)
5. Crystal (Candy Apple Grey)
6. Real World (Metal Circus)
7. Makes No Sense at All (Flip Your Wig)
8. Celebrated Summer (New Day Rising)
9. Perfect Example (New Day Rising)
10. All This I’ve Done For You (Candy Apple Grey)
GREATEST HITS, HART:
1. Keep Hanging On (Flip Your Wig)
2. Terms of Psychic Warfare (New Day Rising)
3. Pink Turns to Blue (Zen Arcade)
4. Books About UFOs (New Day Rising)
5. It’s Not Funny Anymore (Metal Circus)
6. She’s a Woman [And Now he is a Man] (Warehouse: Songs and Stories)
7. Standing by the Sea (Zen Arcade)
8. Diane (Metal Circus)
9. The Girl Who Lives on Heaven Hill (New Day Rising)
10. Sunshine Superman (Everything Falls Apart)
Now if you’ve stayed with me this far, chances are you’re a pretty big Hüsker fan who won’t mind if I push things an obsessive step further. For you I present the following addendum. You’ve been warned:
I was looking at some photos of Hüsker Dü in their heyday, circa ’84 or ’85. These guys were, to put it one way, well-fed. Greg always kept himself trim and dapper, but Bob and Grant weren’t going hungry.
It’s only fair, then, that we should revisit the Hüsker discography, making note of various song titles as they should have appeared. That is, with a gastronomical theme…
There’s little on Land Speed Record or Everything Falls Apart to cook with, so let’s start with Metal Circus. Here, Bob sets the table with “MEAL WORLD,” then takes his place in the “LUNCHLINE.” Grant tells us “I’M NOT HUNGRY ANYMORE,” but later opts for some delicious “STEAK DIANE.”
Zen Arcade is a veritable buffet line of fatty faves: Bob cooks up some “CHARRED TIPS.” Later he orders some “PRIME” down at the “NEWEST EATERY.” He’s got a sweet tooth for “THE BIGGEST PIE.” Alas, it’s a “BROKEN COOKIE, BROKEN HEART.” Grant warns that he’s “NEVER COOKING FOR YOU AGAIN,” yet later we find him “STANDING BY THE STOVE,” dreaming of that moment when “BEEF TURNS TO STEW” (“…waiters placing, gently placing, napkins round her plate.”) This is a very long album, and indigestion sets in by the end of side four, closing with the epic, flatulent jam, “REOCCURRING BEANS.”
Prior to Zen Arcade, you might remember, came the Huskers’ famous 7-inch single — its cover of the Byrds’ — or is it Birds’ — classic, “EGGS PILED HIGH.”
On New Day Rising, Grant tells us about “THE GIRL WHO WORKS AT THE BAR & GRILL,” followed on side two by the sugary “BOOKS ABOUT OREOS.” Bob serves up a “CELEBRATED SUPPER.”
Flip Your Wig is, let’s just say, a little thin, though Grant gives us a cooking lesson with “FLEXIBLE FRYER.”
On Candy Apple Pie… er, Gray … again its Grant with the big appetite. His two meaty singles are, “DON’T WANT TO KNOW IF YOU’RE HUNGRY,” and “HUNGRY SOMEHOW.”
The band’s final course is the delectable double LP: Steakhouse: Songs and Stories. Bob sings of “THESE IMPORTED BEERS,” before going gourmet on the plaintive “BED OF SNAILS.” Alas, he has “NO (DINNER) RESERVATIONS.” Grant snacks on some “CHARITY, CHASTITY, PEANUTS AND COKE,” and reminds us that “YOU CAN COOK AT HOME.”
The post Zen Arcade at 42 appeared first on AskThePilot.com.
Up late and by water to Westminster Hall, where I met Pierce the chirurgeon, who tells me that for certain the King is grown colder to my Lady Castlemaine than ordinary, and that he believes he begins to love the Queen, and do make much of her, more than he used to do. Up to the Lobby, and there sent out for Mr. Coventry and Sir W. Batten, and told them if they thought convenient I would go to Chatham today, Sir John Minnes being already there at a Pay, and I would do such and such business there, which they thought well of, and so I went home and prepared myself to go after, dinner with Sir W. Batten.
Sir W. Batten and Mr. Coventry tell me that my Lord Bristoll hath this day impeached my Lord Chancellor in the House of Lords of High Treason. The chief of the articles are these:
These are the main of the Articles. Upon which my Lord Chancellor desired that the noble Lord that brought in these Articles, would sign to them with his hand; which my Lord Bristoll did presently. Then the House did order that the judges should, against Monday next, bring in their opinion, Whether these articles are treason, or no? and next, they would know, Whether they were brought in regularly or no, without leave of the Lords’ House?
After dinner I took boat (H. Russell) and down to Gravesend in good time, and thence with a guide post to Chatham, where I found Sir J. Minnes and Mr. Wayth walking in the garden, whom I told all this day’s news, which I left the town full of, and it is great news, and will certainly be in the consequence of it.
By and by to supper, and after long discourse, Sir J. Minnes and I, he saw me to my chamber, which not pleasing me, I sent word so to Mrs. Bradford, that I should be crowded into such a hole, while the clerks and boarders of her own take up the best rooms. However I lay there and slept well.
Chance Miller, 9to5Mac:
The lawsuit names Chang Liu and Tang Tan as two of the defendants. Tang Tan served as VP of product design at Apple, leading iPhone and Apple Watch product design. He departed the company in February 2024 to work with Jony Ive. Chang Liu, meanwhile, worked at Apple for eight years and was a senior system electrical engineer before departing to join OpenAI in January 2026.
Apple’s lawsuit also names OpenAI and io Products as defendants.
OpenAI’s hardware efforts are being led by Jony Ive, Apple’s former chief design officer. OpenAI acquired Ive’s startup io as part of a $6.5 billion deal last year. OpenAI’s takeover of the company included more than 50 engineers, developers, and other employees. In its original announcement, OpenAI touted that Ive founded io in collaboration with Scott Cannon, Evans Hankey, and Tan.
Hankey led Apple’s design team for several years after Ive departed the company. She departed in 2022 before reuniting with Ive as part of io. Cannon also previously worked at Apple.
Ive, Hankey, and Cannon are not personally mentioned anywhere in Apple’s initial filing today.
Here’s a copy of Apple’s complaint I’m hosting. You should read the complaint to form your own opinion on the allegations. The complaint goes so far out of its way to avoid mentioning Ive or Hankey by name that it describes io’s founding thus, on page 4 (italics added):
OpenAI and its cohorts have been engaging in a coordinated pattern of misconduct at an institutional level as well. This includes io (which OpenAI acquired), a venture co-founded by Mr. Tan and other former Apple leaders. The Corporate Defendants, with or through their employees or partners, have been acting in concert and as an enterprise, exploiting Apple’s confidential information to advance OpenAI’s efforts to enter the consumer hardware market. They have used confidential Apple information in approaching Apple’s trusted partners, even having one carry out a specific trade secret metal-finishing technique for OpenAI, misleading the partner to believe they had Apple’s permission to do so.
This is the tip of the iceberg. Apple lacks visibility into what’s been happening behind closed doors at OpenAI, where such misconduct is normalized and exemplified by leadership. This much is clear, however: at every level, from members of its Technical Staff to its Chief Hardware Officer, and in coordination with business partners, OpenAI has been stealing Apple’s trade secrets and confidential information. As a natural result, OpenAI’s nascent hardware business now rests on the shakiest of foundations, rotten to its core by its illegal reliance on misappropriated trade secrets.
Footnote 13 on p. 15 states:
Apple and OpenAI have a commercial relationship involving the integration of OpenAI’s ChatGPT into Apple Intelligence. The companies have entered into a written agreement governing that integration. That agreement is not at issue here. OpenAI’s acts of trade secret misappropriation alleged herein do not arise from and have no connection to that agreement.
Be that as it may legally speaking, in practical terms it seems untenable for that Apple Intelligence partnership to continue after this.
See also: Techmeme’s roundup.
Berber Jin and Anissa Gardizy, reporting for The Wall Street Journal (gift link):
Fidji Simo, OpenAI’s No. 2 executive, plans to step down from her full-time role after an extended medical leave. She communicated her decision in a note to staff Thursday, saying that her medical condition had worsened and her road to recovery would be much longer than anticipated. She will become a part-time adviser to the company. [...]
The company abruptly pivoted its focus to building AI-powered coding tools for businesses after falling behind Anthropic in that lucrative market. Simo led early efforts to create a coding-focused “superapp,” which OpenAI launched today, and cut side projects such as the video-generator app Sora.
Quoting from the Ronan Farrow / Andrew Mantz blockbuster New Yorker profile of Sam Altman back in April:
Several executives connected to OpenAI have expressed ongoing reservations about Altman’s leadership and floated Fidji Simo, who was formerly the C.E.O. of Instacart and now serves as OpenAI’s C.E.O. for AGI Deployment, as a successor. Simo herself has privately said that she believes Altman may eventually step down, a person briefed on a recent discussion told us. (Simo disputes this. Instacart recently reached a settlement with the F.T.C., in which it admitted no wrongdoing but agreed to pay a sixty-million-dollar fine for alleged deceptive practices under Simo’s leadership.)
This whole dumb “superapp” idea that leaked last week sounds exactly like the sort of thing someone who ran the Facebook app would think is a good idea. The difference, I expect, is that Facebook is free to let product quality (and experience quality) fall by the wayside because their social platforms have such powerful network effects. People stay on Facebook and Instagram even as the experiences worsen because everyone they know is also still on those apps. There’s no network effect like that for ChatGPT. Claude is already rising to near-equal status in popularity, and Gemini isn’t far behind, and Simo hasn’t even started enshittifying ChatGPT yet. People will just switch.
We’re looking good to hit $200,000 by the close of day tomorrow in this year’s Annual TPM Journalism Fund Drive. We can’t thank you enough. Truly. If you’d like to join us and make a contribution just click right here. We run these drives in waves. $200,000 is the first big milestone, then $250,000. When we hit $400,000 the goal is in sight and then the momentum picks up again. We go in waves of going full time in drive mode, ease up, before pushing again. We appreciate both your generosity as well as your patience as we work through this critical part of our enterprise, our business model, how we make all of this work. Thanks.
Links for you. Science:
Standalone nanopore sequencing for foodborne pathogen surveillance: a large-scale evaluation and quality control framework (more here)
The Other Elephant
Former executive accuses Mayo of cutting corners on AI research
Cyclosporiasis outbreaks: What to know about the foodborne illness and symptoms
Armed conflict tied to higher measles burden worldwide
High-quality phage assembly from metagenomes with PALACE
US Cyclospora cases mount as CDC lags on tracking
Other:
A Response to Matt Yglesias About ‘Fight’ in Democratic Candidates
The AI Hype Reckoning Is Upon Us
‘A Slow-Rolling Disaster’: Inside the Implosion of the Platner Campaign (it’s like they were recruiting for a k-pop band)
The Internet Is Real, But Not All Of Reality
Trump Humiliated as D.C. Fountain He Restored Turns Brown
Brown Professor Suspects Majority of His Class Used AI to Cheat
FanDuel sent a personal message from Phillies star Bryce Harper to a customer with a gambling addiction
Trump administration says it has abandoned plans for new Harriet Tubman $20 bill
We have an even bigger problem than Graham Platner
Platner’s Guru Daniel Moraff Asked Me to Lie for Him (I Didn’t)
‘Centrists,’ This Is on You
The RENTAL Act is full of tenant rights rollbacks. This one was supposed to be removed.
Measles outbreak confirmed at Arizona immigration detention center
We’ve lost trust in D.C.’s high schools. New graduation rules won’t fix it.
Graham Platner’s campaign is dead. The dream he inspired should outlive it.
ICE is killing immigrants and targeting critics as protests dwindle
Almost $1 Billion Later, the US Still Can’t Make a Medical Glove
‘President is a pedophile’: Army websites hacked to insult Trump
Suspecting AI cheating, Ivy League prof ordered an in-person final; scores fell 50%
LinkedIn and X Are Flooded With AI Spam, Browsing Data Suggests
Trump Denies Disaster Aid for Four States That Didn’t Vote for Him
The curdling of the American man
GOPers Fume at Trump as Midterm Woes Grow: “He’s a Bully”: As Trump’s angry demands for voter suppression really start aggravating Republicans, a veteran congressional observer explains the deeper pickle they’re in—and what will happen next.
Why the Democratic Party Has No ‘Base’ and Why That Matters
Most American Jews say Democrats, Republicans, Trump don’t represent them well: Survey
As of 9am today, D.C. had reported four homicides this week, bringing the total for the year to 47*. Last year, during the same time period, we had 88 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, there were 129 homicides. The good news is that the number of new crimes in other categories dropped this week.
We are still well on pace for another 33 percent drop in homicides for the third straight year.
Hopefully, next week will be better regarding murders.
*Three of the 47 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence). Also, there seemed to be some weirdness with the homicide numbers, as last week the total number of homicides was 42, when it should have been 43. Not sure what is going on there.
Today marks the anniversary of a dramatic reworking of the U.S. constitutional order.
On July 9, 1868, Americans changed the U.S. Constitution for the fourteenth time, adapting our foundational document to construct a new nation that brought the principles of the Declaration of Independence to life. They required the federal government to protect the equal rights of all American men.
In 1865 the Thirteenth Amendment to the Constitution had prohibited slavery on the basis of race, but it did not prevent the establishment of a system in which Black Americans continued to be unequal. Backed by President Andrew Johnson, who had taken over the presidency after actor John Wilkes Booth murdered President Abraham Lincoln, white southern Democrats had done their best to push their Black neighbors back into subservience. So long as southern states had abolished enslavement, repudiated Confederate debts, and nullified the ordinances of secession, Johnson was happy to readmit them to full standing in the Union, still led by the very men who had organized the Confederacy and made war on the United States.
Northern Republican lawmakers refused to accept this caricature of freedom. There was no way they were going to rebuild southern society on the same blueprint as existed before the Civil War, especially since the upcoming 1870 census would count Black Americans as whole persons for the first time in the nation’s history, giving southern states more power in Congress and the Electoral College after the war than they had had before it. Having just fought a war to destroy the South’s ideology, they were not going to let it regrow in peacetime.
Congress rejected Johnson’s plan for Reconstruction.
But then congressmen had to come up with their own. After months of hearings and debate, they proposed amending the Constitution to settle the outstanding questions of the war. Chief among these was how to protect the rights of Black Americans in states where they could neither vote nor testify in court or sit on a jury to protect their own interests.
Congress’s solution was the Fourteenth Amendment.
It took on the infamous 1857 Dred Scott v. Sandford decision declaring that Black men “are not included, and were not intended to be included, under the word ‘citizens’ in the Constitution, and can therefore claim none of the rights and privileges which that instrument provides for and secures to citizens.”
The Fourteenth Amendment provides that “[a]ll persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”
The amendment also addressed the Dred Scott decision in another profound way. In 1857, southerners and Democrats who were adamantly opposed to federal power controlled the Supreme Court. They backed states’ rights. So the Dred Scott decision did more than read Black Americans out of our history: it dramatically circumscribed Congress’s power.
The Dred Scott decision declared that democracy was created at the state level, by those people in a state who were allowed to vote. In 1857 this meant white men, almost exclusively. If those people voted to do something widely unpopular—like adopting human enslavement, for example—they had the right to do so. People like Abraham Lincoln pointed out that such domination by states would eventually mean that an unpopular minority could take over the national government, forcing their ideas on everyone else, but defenders of states’ rights stood firm.
The Fourteenth Amendment overturned that idea, recognizing the federal government’s power to protect individuals even if their state legislatures passed discriminatory laws. “No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws,” it said. And it went on to say that “Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.”
The principles behind the Fourteenth Amendment were behind the 1870 creation of the Department of Justice, whose first job was to bring down Ku Klux Klan terrorists in the South.
Those same principles took on profound national significance in the post–World War II era, when the Supreme Court began to use the equal protection clause and the due process clause of the Fourteenth Amendment aggressively to apply the protections in the Bill of Rights to the states.
The civil rights decisions of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, including the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision outlawing segregation in public schools, come from this doctrine. Under it, the federal government took up the mantle of protecting the rights of individual Americans in the states from the whims of state legislatures.
Opponents of these new civil rights protections quickly began to object that such decisions were “legislating from the bench,” rather than permitting state legislatures to make their own laws. They began to call for “originalism,” the idea that the Constitution should be interpreted only as the Framers had intended when they wrote it, an argument that focused on the creation of law at the state level. Famously, in 1987, President Ronald Reagan nominated Robert Bork, an originalist who had called for the rollback of the Supreme Court’s civil rights decisions, for a seat on that court.
Reacting to that nomination, Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) recognized the importance of the Fourteenth Amendment to equality: “Robert Bork’s America is a land in which women would be forced into back-alley abortions, Blacks would sit at segregated lunch counters, rogue police could break down citizens’ doors in midnight raids, schoolchildren could not be taught about evolution, writers and artists could be censored at the whim of the Government, and the doors of the Federal courts would be shut on the fingers of millions of citizens for whom the judiciary is—and is often the only—protector of the individual rights that are the heart of our democracy….”
At the time, Bork’s supporters expressed outrage at what they insisted was Kennedy’s smear campaign, for surely the right-wing attack on the protections of the Fourteenth Amendment would never so completely undermine modern society.
And yet in 2026, here we are.
—
Notes:
So yesterday morning my nephew Isaiah and I were driving to Venice Beach. He’s visiting from New York, and I thought it’d be cool to show him the sights.
Well, he saw the sights.
Roughly 15 minutes into our drive, traffic came to a dead stop. There were cars in front of us, cars besides us, cars behind us. I saw a bunch of flashing lights a few feet ahead, and a firetruck down the road a bit.
Then, I saw him.
The man, wearing an orange shirt and dark pants, was hanging off the wrong side of the fenced overpass at Edinger Avenue. There were a slew of officers surrounding him; I assume, trying to talk him down. At first, I yelped to Isaiah, “Holy shit—there’s a jumper!” I thought about the horrors that could potentially await. A man plummeting to his death. The collective gasp. A splotch of humanity on the road. Having (as a New Yorker) experienced the up-close hellscape of 9.11, my mind flashed back to the unspeakable. Witnessing death is terrible, but witnessing death via a plummet is soul-hollowing. I didn’t want to see it. I certainly didn’t want my 22-year-old nephew to see it.
The minutes ticked away. The traffic grew. The minutes ticked away. The traffic grew. Shock and dismay turned to a state of timelessness. Our lives were collectively suspended. I leaned back my seat and took a nap. Isaiah watched a World Cup game on his phone. After a while, people started abandoning their vehicles to get a closer look. I walked toward the front, where four people were speaking Spanish. They seemed concerned. I joined another group, where they were (understandably) expressing their frustrations. There were places to be. Flights to catch. Jobs to work. Loved ones to visit. “Either jump or don’t jump,” I heard one man say—and, while it was harsh, I overlooked the momentary tastelessness. We were trapped, flies in amber. It wasn’t fun.
I thought a lot about the man in the orange. Who was he? What happened to him? How did he reach this point? Was he on drugs? Despondent? Had his wife just left him? Were his kids mad at him? Was he fired? Tried? Battered? What was going through his mind?
As I returned to my car, I saw a woman speaking with my nephew through my open window. She was a social worker, and was debating whether to offer her services to the police. Maybe the jumper needed a friend. A comforter. The woman had a warm face, compassionate cheeks. I’m guessing she leads the league in hugs.
Then, suddenly, a rush!
The police were re-opening the highway. The jumper was still dangling, but how long could we all be stuck in place? So the men and women who abandoned their Hondas and Chevys and Priuses bounded back toward their Hondas and Chevys and Priuses. You could see a glee in the collective motion. We were free. All of us were free.
And yet …
Were we?
For the 45 minutes (or so), a random assortment of people were thrust together, not so much by fate but by the mechanisms of one man, who believed his life may no longer be worth living. We were together. Forced together, but together nonetheless. There was nowhere to go and nothing to do.
Just existence.
Just a moment in time on the 405.
•••

In my post on America’s 250-year anniversary, I argued that respect for the individual was the “secret sauce” in the U.S.’ long-lasting preeminence among nations. But it was certainly not the only factor. There were plenty of institutional innovations that helped the U.S. stay on top — economically, militarily, and in terms of the attractiveness of its society.
One of these was American science. Today we take things like the modern research university, government grants for science, public-to-private research spinoffs, etc. for granted, but a lot of that infrastructure wasn’t there before World War 2. It was either invented or scaled up massively by the U.S. government in the postwar period, led by far-sighted scientist-bureaucrats like Vannevar Bush (pictured above). If you want to read about this history, a good place to start would be Jonathan Gruber and Simon Johnson’s excellent book Jump-Starting America.
Those scientific institutions didn’t exist in a vacuum, however. They were backed by the U.S. government’s abiding faith in the power of science — and, even more fundamentally, by deep popular trust in the scientific enterprise. Science gave us radar and the atom bomb in wartime, and in peacetime it gave us plastics, vaccines, cheap food, and a thousand other things that made our lives easier. Science was also the driver behind American industry — chemicals, aerospace, telecommunications, computers, electronics, and so on.
We owed science our jobs, our livelihoods, our comfortable living standards, and our greatness and power as a nation. It’s little wonder that both political parties, even as they fought viciously over other issues, were steadfast in their support of science. For a long time, the only people who distrusted science were a hippie fringe on the left who disliked modernity (or thought they did, anyway), who also disliked American industry and American power, and who subscribed to an early version of degrowth environmentalism.
America’s scientific enterprise is still strong, especially compared to the systems in Europe, Japan, Korea, and other developed countries. It has lost a lot of ground to China in a relative sense, but a lot of that is because of China’s incredible growth; as China has poured untold amounts of money and talent into its research labs, spending and output have overtaken the U.S. by some measures.
There are a few ways in which China’s rise creates problems for American science — for example, top scientists can choose to work in China instead of in the U.S. — and of course there’s the concern that China’s technological strength will help its military to reign supreme. But overall, China’s rise in science should be good for American science, since American scientists can use Chinese discoveries for free and build on them.
The much bigger problem is that the scientific enterprise America built during and after World War 2 is now being threatened with absolute decline. The biggest problem, of course, is that much of the country — the Republican half — has basically lost faith in the scientific enterprise. To what degree this loss of faith is justified is an open question, and deserves to be discussed openly. But the larger point — that the system that powered American dominance is under threat — is true either way.
There’s a myth, popular in right-wing circles, that scientists have lost the trust of regular Americans — either due to the increasingly left-wing composition of academic departments, or to misbehavior during Covid, or to DEI-related research taking over science, etc. This also fits with a wider narrative that Americans are losing trust in all of our institutions.
But it just isn’t true. Poll after poll shows that on the whole, Americans still trust scientists and want to spend more on science. For example, here’s a Pew poll from late 2025 showing that although about a fifth of Republicans did lose confidence in science in 2020, two thirds still have at least “a fair amount” of confidence:

That same poll found that scientists are among America’s most trusted groups — even better trusted than the military!

In fact, Americans trust scientists more than people in most other countries do.
Other polls show that although Republican trust in science has dropped somewhat, Republican support for spending more on science remains very strong:

A Pew poll in 2023 found the exact same thing:

So when MAGA types tell you about scientists losing their credibility, or a drop in trust in science, they’re only talking about themselves. Whatever left-wing politicization of science happened during the Biden administration — and there was definitely some of that — it was not enough to make most Republicans lose faith in the scientific enterprise, or favor research cuts in order to purge unwanted ideology from the system.
That doesn’t mean I think progressives should continue down the path of politicizing scientific research. They should not, and Biden made real missteps in this area. Objectivity clearly matters for public trust of science in the long term. But as of right now, there’s no crisis of trust in science, except among the smallish minority of people who are running around screaming that there’s a crisis of trust in science.
But despite science’s overwhelming popularity and public trust, Trump and his administration are launching an unprecedented and devastating attack on American science — cutting funding, and forcing science projects to undergo ideological review by government commissars.
China's sprawling state-owned rocket developer, maker of the country's Long March rocket family, announced it recovered a reusable orbital-class booster for the first time Friday in the South China Sea.
The milestone mission began with the liftoff of a Long March 10B rocket from the Wenchang Commercial Space Launch Site on Hainan Island, China's southernmost province. Powered by seven kerosene-fueled engines, the approximately 209-foot-tall (63.6-meter) rocket took off at 12:15 am EDT (04:15 UTC), or 12:15 pm local time at the seaside spaceport at Wenchang.
About 10 minutes later, the Long March 10B booster descended from space and guided itself into a four-legged frame affixed to an offshore vessel. Tensioned cables stretched over the ship in a grid pattern captured the rocket as it shut down its landing engines, leaving the smoldering booster hanging in midair. The rocket's upper stage continued into orbit and deployed a payload known only as CX-26. Chinese officials hailed the flight as a "complete success."

Update July 11, 12:21 a.m. EDT (0421 UTC): SpaceX confirms deployment of the Starlink satellites
SpaceX launched its latest batch of Starlink satellites Friday night from Vandenberg Space Force Base using its second most-flown Falcon 9 first stage booster.
The Starlink 17-48 mission added another 24 broadband internet satellites to the company’s low Earth orbit constellation. SpaceX currently has more than 10,700 spacecraft within its constellation.
Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East happened at 8:01 p.m. PDT (11:01 p.m. EDT / 0301 UTC). The rocket flew on a south-southwesterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.
SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1071. This was its 35th flight after launching NASA’s SWOT, five missions for the National Reconnaissance Office, and five missions for its SmallSat Rideshare Program.
More than eight minutes after liftoff, B1071 landed on the drone ship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You’, positioned in the Pacific Ocean. This was the 209th landing on this vessel and the 636th booster landing for SpaceX.

HELSINKI — China launched its Long March 10B rocket early Friday and successfully recovered the first stage, marking a huge step for the country’s reusable rocket efforts. The first Long […]
The post China becomes second country to recover orbital booster with Long March 10B appeared first on SpaceNews.

An office of the U.S. Department of the Interior is seeking information on concepts for performing offshore orbital launches, part of a broader effort to reduce congestion at existing spaceports.
The post Interior Department requests information on offshore launch options appeared first on SpaceNews.

Space is hard, as the decades-old adage goes. For much of the industry’s history, “rocket science” was as much a barrier to entry as a byword for difficulty. But now […]
The post The space industry is weighing ambitious hiring against heritage appeared first on SpaceNews.

A City Labs mission aims to validate a tritium-powered electrical source for satellites and lunar systems that could operate where solar power falls short
The post Startup testing nuclear battery technology in orbit appeared first on SpaceNews.

By most measures, commercial space is thriving. Washington produced a flurry of activity over the past year: two major executive orders, a raft of directives, and “space superiority” elevated to […]
The post Space capitalism needs more than a bull market appeared first on SpaceNews.

A Japanese startup developing reentry vehicles is signing up customers and preparing for its first mission while keeping a watchful eye on SpaceX’s entry into the market.
The post ElevationSpace advances work on commercial reentry vehicle appeared first on SpaceNews.
In the near future, AI-powered surveillance systems will be able to track everything we do in public, and much of what we do in private. And if we do something wrong—shoplift, litter, jaywalk, you name it—the system will notice, retain it, tie it to your official government record, communicate that fact to you, and provide real-time alerts to any relevant authorities… and maybe also to the general public.
Think of these systems as automated speed cameras, but on steroids. Only they’ll enforce not just speed limits, but any other rule you can imagine. And you won’t receive a ticket weeks later by mail; you’ll be informed about and fined for your violation immediately.
These systems will combine powerful AI, public and private surveillance via real-time facial recognition technology and digital tracking, mass databases and highly personalized enforcement. If deployed at scale, they will have profound chilling effects not just on personal freedoms, but democracy and social progress itself.
China has been developing its surveillance infrastructure for years. The country has over 600 million surveillance cameras, increasingly powered by AI and facial recognition to enforce legal and social rules. Take the case of Lao Duan, a Chinese citizen blacklisted by the system after he lost his job and was unable to repay a series of loans. When he visited Beijing, the city’s AI surveillance system identified him by his face at a major intersection and displayed his face, name and citizen ID number on a large electronic billboard nearby with a message that he was an untrustworthy person. Similar systems are now being deployed across China and integrated with its infamous online monitoring, censorship and social credit systems.
AI surveillance is now being experimented with in North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Africa. According to a new report, the US Department of Homeland Security is rapidly increasing its use of AI-based surveillance, including facial recognition and the monitoring of social media accounts, to keep tabs on immigrants, dissidents, journalists, legal observers and protesters. While the systems are ostensibly used to maintain security and public safety, the real aim is often social control. Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle—a powerful tech giant that works closely with the Trump administration—has said: “Citizens will be on their best behavior because we’re constantly recording and reporting.” The chilling effects are the point.
AI surveillance raises a range of public policy challenges: technical biases, unauditable systems, and inflexible automated law and social rule enforcement that can promote discrimination and undermine transparency, accountability and the rule of law. But we believe the most urgent and long-term impact will be its broader chilling effects.
In a new book, Chilling Effects: Repression, Conformity, and Power in the Digital Age, Jon Penney explains how surveillance, technology and power can be weaponized to influence behavior at scale. Surveillance, personalization, uncertainty and authority are all key mechanisms to increase the scale and impact of chilling effects. They cause people to self-censor their words and actions, to become more conformist and compliant and thus easier to manage and control. And the effects are additive: the more mechanisms employed, and the more powerful the form, the greater the chill.
Computerization has long allowed data collectors to track our locations, collect lists of whom we communicate with, and monitor our spending habits—unless we use cash. What’s new is an unprecedented fusion of each of these mechanisms, persistent and unrelenting. AI brings an analytical ability to spy on the contents of our communications, and to answer sophisticated questions about our whereabouts and activities: actions that previously required human analysts are now automated. The result will be a kind of supercharged societal level of chilling effects where fear, self-censorship and groupthink reign, and dissent, creativity and innovation become increasingly rare.
In this atmosphere of fear and conformity, risky ideas, social activism and self-reinvention—especially by disfavored groups and targeted populations—are also chilled. This will have long-term effects on social progress.
Consider the relatively recent societal normalization of same-sex relationships and the recreational use of marijuana. Over the decades, those ideas slowly progressed from being both immoral and illegal, to moral but still illegal, and finally to both moral and legal. But in order for any of that to happen, there had to be a counterculture that was able to experiment and eventually demonstrate to the world that morality could change over time. To the extent that AI surveillance chills this sort of experimentation in public or in private, social progress becomes impossible.
There are no real historical precursors to this; these technologies are too new. Even the most notorious and large-scale domestic surveillance program in US history, the FBI’s use of wiretapping, physical mail opening, informants and paper index cards to track alleged communists during the 1950s and 1960s, appears genuinely archaic in light of modern AI-enhanced surveillance. So does East Germany’s human-centric surveillance network during the cold war. Only science fiction, from the likes of George Orwell or Aldous Huxley, comes close. But even Big Brother’s “telescreen” feels decidedly mid-20th-century by comparison.
But we need not sit idly. Now that we recognize the danger of AI-enhanced mass surveillance, we can make the policy choices not to implement it. Bans on facial recognition and other forms of identification tech can slow development; robust new privacy and data protections can restrict data tracking and retention; AI regulations can curtail its most invasive uses; and structural reforms can help us scrutinize and break up powerful state/tech cartels that pave the way for technological excesses like AI surveillance.
The chill of AI-powered mass surveillance will suffocate the very foundations of healthy democratic societies. But we can still choose a different path.
This essay was written with Jon Penney, and originally appeared in The Guardian.

MILAN – European space industry sales rebounded in 2025 after a contraction in 2024, Eurospace reported in its latest Facts and Figures report, presented July 7. The growth is driven […]
The post Earth observation satellites pass telecom in European space industry sales appeared first on SpaceNews.

HELSINKI — A Chinese government body has published a national commercial space consortium membership list, offering a rare indication of which companies the state considers established players. The list was […]
The post China unveils members of state-backed commercial space consortium appeared first on SpaceNews.
Want a stronger economy? Don’t copy losers! According to the newly released report from Governor Tina Kotek’s Prosperity Council, the problem with Oregon’s economy is supposedly that we “lag behind competitor” states, and if we’re going to improve our economy, we need to copy “best practices” from these states.
There’s a big problem with these claims: There’s no evidence that any of the policies are best practices, and every one of the states lag well behind Oregon on a broad array of economic measures. In essence, the Governor’s Prosperity Council is recommending advising that Oregon copy a bunch of losers. The Council says Oregon should copy what it calls “best practices” from five states–Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia–all of which have measurably worse economic vital signs than Oregon.
A comprehensive look at ten measures of wages, income, wealth, economic growth, entrepreneurship, innovation, manufacturing start-ups, and exports, shows that Oregon outperforms these so-called best practice states. Oregon is wealthier, has grown income faster, pays its lowest earning workers more, has more manufacturing start-ups per capita, exports more per capita, is more entrepreneurial, and is more innovative than any of these states.
As with so much in the report, the Council simply asserts that these states are “best practices” without offering any studies, any references, any proof whatsoever that what these states are doing is either measurably different from standard practice or what Oregon is doing already. The Council has simply anointed them as best practices, based on gossip, or less.
Dubious best practices from low-performing states with regressive tax systems aren’t a good model for building Oregon’s prosperity.
Driving, More or Less. The Frontier Group has a data-driven article on trends in driving among US states. It’s a good news/bad news story. The good news is, in a few states, driving is going down; the number of miles driven per person now is lower than it was 30 years ago. This includes Washington State, which has been prosperous and grown its economy. The bad news is, driving is down in a very few states. As the chart makes clear, driving per person is up in about four-fifths of the states.

Even the states that have chalked up declines in driving aren’t really doing so well right now. As we’ve documented at City Observatory, for example, essentially all of Oregon’s decline in driving was recorded prior to 2014, and in the past five years, VMT/capita has been rising. As Frontier Group, and other research shows, it takes a combination of price incentives, and the long term effects of land use policy and complementary investments, to bring about consistent reduction in driving.

”These findings suggest that cost-benefit analyses of congestion pricing systematically understate net social benefits by omitting emergency response improvements.”
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Transcript
Today i want to give you some encouraging news about the state of the heartland. Well, actually New Jersey, but you got a problem with that?
But I did something kind of different yesterday — which has prevented me from producing a usual analytical Substack post — and it was actually a very uplifting experience.
So hi, I’m Paul Krugman. What i did yesterday was participate in jury selection in Mercer County, New Jersey, where i am still a legal resident.
That is something I’ve done before: back in 2020 I spent 16 weeks on a grand jury. It was done remotely, because it was the depths of Covid.
It was a New Jersey grand jury, which is not high profile cases. It’s actually very ordinary cases in which the police want to bring someone to trial but 23 citizens must agree that they have provided sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial. You don’t have to judge guilt or innocence but you have to judge that there is sufficient evidence to warrant bringing charges.
It was enlightening. I got to see a lot of the negative side of life, obviously, but it was just it was a pretty good experience on the whole.
So I was summoned again this year. I wouldn’t have been able to do it, but I had to participate in the selection in order to explain to the judge, if necessary, why I could not be available during the period of this grand jury — a bunch of already agreed to conferences and talks in Europe.
So it wasn’t going to be something I could do, but I did the right thing and went through the whole procedure of listening to the explanation, being pronounced present, and waiting to see the judge and explain the issue.
Now, as it turned out, I didn’t even have to do that. By the time they had reached the people who had said they could not do it, including me and 77 other people, they already had filled the jury. So it ended up that it was time-consuming, okay, not a terrible thing, but it was a procedure that had to be done. And I did my citizenly duty and was released well into the afternoon.
But what was interesting about it was that those of us who had said we couldn’t do it — 78 people in a Zoom room — had a long wait while the judge did whatever she needed to do with the rest. And after a little while some people unmuted themselves and we started having a conversation. This was by definition kind of a random sample of people — of course people who have felony convictions are not part of this, people are not us citizens are not part of it, and to be fair it’s Mercer County which includes Princeton although it also includes Trenton. Still, it’s on average an affluent, highly educated county so this was not exactly typical America but it wasn’t exactly the elite either: This wasn’t a virtual room full of Princeton professors.
So conversation started. Obviously people are not fools so it wasn’t about politics, it wasn’t about current events, it started with people saying “anybody want to recommend some books that I should read?” and then turned to TV shows and movies and then somehow or other we got involved in a discussion of AI and applications and learning. Because there were several school teachers.
Not everyone spoke up — most people didn’t — but everyone was listening, it seemed fairly attentively. And it was a great conversation! People were reasonable, they were either well informed or were happy to say “I don’t know about this.” There was actually some discussion about “how should I where should I go for news now that everything is so polarized” — nobody talked politics but they did talk about the fact that news is kind of hard to parse these days.
The book recommendations, the TV and movie recommendations to the extent that I know them were pretty good. And the whole tone was, wow, it was civilized. I felt a little bit as if I was in the middle of a Norman Rockwell painting.
By the way, yes, people did recognize me and a couple said you know I read your Substack and I talked a little bit but I made a deliberate effort to step back and not play the celebrity there.
And that was good, because I got to listen to other people who were really level-headed, interesting, pretty well informed about a bunch of stuff. Oh, and just to say that this was New Jersey, so it was a very diverse group of people — a random selection of people from New Jersey, which meant that it was multi-racial and multi-ethnic. The clerk had some trouble with pronouncing everybody’s name, which was okay — I mean everybody was very forgiving of that.
So it was very much America as I see it — a country of lots of people who look very different, who sound different (except a fair number of people did have New Jersey accents.)
And it was just a far more hopeful scene — at least I found it much more hopeful —about the state of the country. It turns out that ordinary Americans — this is, again ordinary Americans from Mercer County, New Jersey, but still — ordinary Americans are a lot nicer, more thoughtful, more willing to hold interesting discussions than you might think.
And it does seem to me, given all the political news, there’s a lot of people out there, I would say primarily on the right, but not only on the right, who fundamentally hold ordinary Americans in contempt, who believe that you have to go with cheap slogans and that you can appeal to the baser instincts of everybody’s nature and that’s the way that you win.
And obviously they do sometimes win. But it’s worth going out there a little bit.
I mean I’m never going to be the kind of person who travels around and has conversations with the person in the street and reports back on what I’ve learned about the real America. But I actually did have, by accident, a pretty good selection of real Americans — because we’re all real Americans — and came out of it feeling just much lighter in mood.
You know, this country is actually okay if we can just get past some of the people who are trying to take us down a dark path. We’re not bad people — we’re mostly good people. And there’s a lot there’s a lot of uplift out here if you’re willing to see it.
For once if I say I’m ending on a happy note, I really am.
Take care.
[...] Work on web and mobile runs in the cloud. Work in the desktop app can also use local files and desktop apps with your permission. At launch, cloud Work conversations do not appear in desktop Work; desktop Work threads and local files remain on that computer.
— OpenAI, trying (unsuccessfully) to clarify ChatGPT Work
2. How much have the top last names changed since 1790?
3. Bernanke appointed to the Long-Term Benefit Trust of Anthropic.
4. The India 1991 Fellowship is going great.
5. UK Dynamism Fund.
6. Peter Gray on phones and social media.
7. The new Richard Hanania book is out.
8. Warsh Fed task force leaders.
The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Hey folks, Fireside this week! I’ve been a bit behind because we had some family travel followed by an issue with a water leak in the basement which has pushed me out of my normal home office space (fortunately no books or computers were harmed and we’re working on water damage restoration now). All of which has a nasty habit of throwing off your work schedule. For patrons wondering where the latest research update is – it is in much the same place, ‘coming’ and for much the same reason.

That said, I’ve wanted to do a musing for a few weeks expanding on some of my thoughts on what I am going to call ‘the chuds’1 (often also referred to as the ‘statue pfps’)2 a group of online ancient and medieval history ‘fans’ (mostly, but not exclusively, on Twitter) whose interest in the pre-modern past is anchored in extremely reactionary political ideology (generally some mix of racism, sexism and authoritarianism). I wrote something of an anthropology of this group for The Bulwark a month back, occasioned by bit of culture-war nonsense around the upcoming Odyssey adaptation which spilled over into a discussion of Emily Wilson’s translations of Homer. So I want to muse a bit on the oddity of ‘history fans’ who don’t know any history and why they end up that way.
Now, I should state at the outset that the structure of ‘chud classics’ on Twitter is a radicalization pipeline: the algorithm channels users who like more mild, less openly fascist accounts (and sometimes just straight up non-fascist ones) towards more concentrated more openly fascist accounts. As a result, there are some accounts at the ‘clean’ end of the pipe that are unobjectionable (I’ve never seen anything ‘off’ from @culturaltutor, for instance), but they’re tied together in the eco-system where if you follow one, you get recommended the others and at least some of the accounts in the middle are quite aware of what they’re doing, actively promoting accounts on the ‘sludge end’ of the pipe. This post is largely about accounts, however, on the sludge-end of the pipeline – @romanhelmetguy, @updatingonrome, @latinedisce, @thehellenist and so on. But I want to be clear, I’m not saying, ‘everyone in this pipe is a fascist,’ but I am saying, ‘the water in this pipe flows inexorably towards fascism’ (because the guy who owned Twitter has decided it should) and at the very least the fellows at the ‘clean’ end up the pipe never quite seem to denounce the sludge end.
What I want to return to is the oddity I pointed out in that piece that the chuds are both really attached to classical antiquity and also don’t know very much about it. Because the inciting incident was a debate over translating Homer, that point got expressed mostly in terms of the fact that a lot of the largest chud accounts that purport to explain antiquity to others don’t know Greek (which makes it pretty hard to have a useful opinion on a translation)! But that is hardly to limit of it: right after the Homer debate, one of the larger chuds got into a second argument with some actual classicists, outraged, Outraged! that they consider the stories in the first couple of books of Livy as basically fables, evidently unaware that among the figures who think the first five books of Livy might be unreliable is…Livy himself! He says as much at the beginning of book 6! But of course the fellow had never read beyond the cool legends in the first two books and so had no sense that the character of Livy’s history of Rome changes quite significantly as Livy gets access to better sources.
And I initially found that lack of knowledge actually kind of puzzling, because the chuds don’t have deep knowledge about any part of ancient or medieval history. That was initially surprising. Working on pre-gunpowder arms and armor, I am used to history enthusiast spaces (like HEMA or historical dress YouTube and such), where you have a lot of passionate, often self-taught folks who are interested in history. And the thing is, there’s a pattern for those folks, which is that they tend to have odd gaps and assumptions in their knowledge, but they also tend to be a mile deep in the details of the specific things that interest them. It’s the classic, ‘guy who has at best a fuzzy sense of what Reconstruction was but can tell you the exact position of every Maine regiment at the Battle of Gettysburg, hour by hour’ sort of thing. Don’t get me wrong – that can have its own problems (especially for the American Civil War) – but there’s deep knowledge about something there.
To put it in a metaphor, when it comes to a topic, a trained professional historian’s knowledge is often like a swimming pool that smoothly slopes from the shallow end to the deep end, while the autodidact enthusiast is sometimes more like a shallow puddle with really deep potholes. As a history educator, engaging with that autodidact enthusiast can be really rewarding, because they are often really excited to let you basically ‘widen’ their potholes, to overstretch the metaphor.
But the chuds…it’s just a puddle. Not especially wide or deep.
This really started striking me when I got a bunch of them mad about ‘Great Man’ history (a topic we need to address at some length at some point), because they all had the same very short list of available ‘great men.’ For antiquity, it was Julius Caesar and Alexander III over and over again.
Put aside the problems with pure, uncut ‘Great Man’ history. Never Demosthenes or Iphikrates or Seleucus I Nicator. Or on the Roman side, always Julius Caesar, never Quintus Fabius Maximus Cunctator, Publius Cornelius Scipio Africanus (or Lucius Cornelius Scipio Asiaticus), Titus Quinctius Flamininus, or Lucius Aemilius Paullus, much less Appius Claudius Caecus or Marcus Tullius Cicero. Or, of course, our boy, the man, the legend, Publius Ventidius Bassus ::airhorn sounds::. Of for the guys who are really into the crusades (for really unfortunate reasons), it’s all vague AI images of ‘crusaders’ (invariably Templars), rather than anyone, like, pouring over the details of the Siege of Acre (1189-1191) during the Third Crusade. The pool of their knowledge is all puddle, no potholes – there’s no depth anywhere.3
Which is so strange if you approach the ‘chud community’ as a group of misguided ‘history buffs,’ but suddenly makes sense if you understand them effectively working backwards to their fascination with antiquity.
They mostly begin with the modern ideology, which as I document in The Bulwark piece, is generally a mix of authoritarian-inflected bigotry, with the core beliefs being a mix of white supremacist (often expressed as a hatred of non-white immigrants) and homophobia, often with a decent amount of misogyny and antisemitism thrown in. The precise elements are generally negotiable because the commitment is emotional and irrational, because – as Umberto Eco famously noted – that is the nature of fascism as an ideology: it is an emotional rejection of the universalizing principles of the Enlightenment and liberalism first which searches for rationalizations second.
I actually wrote this all last Monday and then, after I had written it all, Vice President Vance, of all people, provided a nearly perfect perfect example of this process of working backwards from ideology to the past. In a passage in his book (which I encountered via a New York Times article) about one of his favorite prayers, he declares the prayer “feels medieval” but was in fact written in the 19th century (in the rather specific context of the threat to the Pope’s temporal authority – that is, his power as an earthly, secular prince – against the newly created Kingdom of Italy) – and it feels medieval and mystical to him specifically because “you could almost see the angels and demons doing battle” fitting an ideological need for confrontation and heroism even though its origins are not medieval or mystical at all, but quite modern and also rather earthly. Vance acknowledges the actual date of the prayer (though not its political context), but it doesn’t bother him: what matters is that the prayer can be mobilized to fit his ideological needs, not that it actually fits any particular historical context.

So the emotion – the feeling of alienation and disgust from living in a liberal, multiethnic society – come first and the rationalization and search for a new anchors for identity come second. And if all you know about antiquity is what one might learn in an undergraduate course or in high school, it seems initially like a useful ‘anchor’ for that emotion. What they ‘know,’ after all, is that Greece and Rome are the origin point of something called ‘western civilization’ which is either the reason for or a demonstration of the essential ‘special-ness’ of white people (and thus makes them special boys, a necessary salve for their wounded egos) and that those ancient societies had ‘heroic’ leaders who serve to satisfy both the fascist quest for the cult of heroism but also provide archetypal ‘manly men’ who can serve as an anchor for their wounded masculinity because (as Eco notes!) masculinity-anxiety is at the heart of the emotional brew of fascism.
Of course almost all of that is sublimated. What is visible is that their interest in antiquity is focused on on using it as a ‘proof’ for their ideology, rather than for the sake of interest or curiosity. So they seize on individual elements that seem ‘manly’ or ‘heroic’ or which reinforce a white supremacist or male-dominant ideology because the purpose isn’t to understand the Romans but to provide a comforting salve to their wounded feelings.
Which also explains why they don’t ever go deep, develop those ‘potholes’ of knowledge: because while classical antiquity might look at a great distance like a comforting resting place for their ideology, up close it doesn’t fit at all. Instead, it offers quite a lot of challenges. Ancient stereotypes and bigotries do not map cleanly on to modern racism and in any event the clear tendency from classical antiquity is that diversity was a winning strategy – societies that more successfully and more fully incorporated culturally and ethnically different groups won. Societies that stayed small and homogeneous lost. And quite a few ancient writers – Livy, Polybius, even Philip V of Macedon, of all people – recognized this at the time!
Greek and Roman values map very poorly onto the strength-first ‘John Wayne’ style masculinism (‘strength’ or do-what-it-takes ruthlessness are both well down the list of core masculine virtues for either the Greeks or the Romans, but central for this strain of quite badly impoverished modern masculinity) these fellows generally favor and ancient authors, as I note in The Bulwark piece, regularly caveat and question even the value of a ‘heroic life’ of that sort. Instead, the ideal Roman leader is presented as a sober, prudent sort of fellow, with an inherent courage and drive (that’s virtus), but restrained by educated virtues (often captured in the word humanitas) which included clemency and mercy (clementia, mansuetudo).
And of course I imagine we all have no problem grasping the inherent risibility of these guys, nearly all of whom are quite open and aggressively homophobic, being very fond of ancient Greece.
Which in turn serves to explain why – whereas most enthusiast communities quite like it when academic experts engage with them – these fellows hate academic classicists. Because we insist on showing up with the more complex, more grounded, more accurate version of antiquity which does not fit their ideology and so does not comfort their wounded egos and fragile feelings. What they want is simply a recitation of the simplified high school level antiquity, blurred over enough to fit that ideology. Or as one of them put it, the problem with Classics is that, “Classicists chose to privilege the scientific study of the text…deliberately abandoned the prior noble emphasis of what the texts might be said to teach: Greatness!.”
(It is worth noting that while quite a few ancient authors describe the purpose of their writing as providing a knowledge of human affairs and human nature (Thucydides) or a corrective to conduct (Polybius, Plutarch), the idea that they were writing instruction manuals for achieving greatness (magnitudo, ‘greatness’ is not a core Roman value) is largely absent. Instead, the idea that the purpose of studying history is to emulate the habits of great men in order to achieve heroic greatness is a modern one, advanced by Thomas Carlyle, the original “Great Man Theory” historian, although it has precursors in the medieval and early modern genre of “mirrors for princes” (although these generally present themselves as training virtue rather than “greatness,” often focusing more – as Roman and Greek writing did – on restraint in rule than on the achievement of “greatness.” Again, real history is more complex and interesting than the chud’s ‘Boy’s history’ version of the past, to their considerable annoyance.)
Now I want to say two more things before we move on. First, I don’t want this analysis to be taken to mean I think it is impossible to do good, rigorous history from what we might understand as ‘conservative’ principles. Indeed, I think it quite clearly is – a scholar trying to understand why the Romans are so successful at obtaining and then maintaining an empire, for instance, might be seen as embarking upon a conservative project. Likewise, there’s an obvious “Burkean” conservative angle to the study of the collapse of the functioning norms of the Roman Republic. On the flipside, there are ideologies – generally extremist ideologies, like fascism – which simply cannot survive sustained contact with the historical evidence and it is thus not surprising that fascists thus reject the historical evidence even as they engaging in a ‘cult of traditionalism.’ They cannot let the real past get in the way of their imagined past, after all.
Secondly, I want to be clear as to what my project is when it comes to engaging in spaces that have ‘chud classicists’ in them. I am not trying to convince the chuds. Someone cannot be reasoned out of a position they did not reason themselves into and as I hope I’ve demonstrated the chuds do not believe what they do because of careful reason and study: they believe it because it coddles their wounded egos and fragile injured feelings. No amount of careful study will change the fact that these fellows have the emotional maturity of spoiled children.
However, what I do not want is for other folks coming into these spaces to assume that ‘chud history’ is the only kind, much less that the past corresponds to it. My goal in engaging, to the degree I do, is thus to make clear that a better, more rigorous, more sophisticated, more complex vision of the past exists, to put up a flare to signal, “if you want knowledge, facts and understanding, rather than coddled feelings, seek them in these other places.” It is then up to those folks to decide which they prefer: the comforting lie or the discomforting truth.

On to Recommendations:
First a few of my own things! As noted above, this week’s fireside topic was occasioned by a piece I wrote for The Bulwark, “Why Stone-Faced Fascists Keep Getting Antiquity Wrong” about a month ago. I then also had a chance to stream a live conversation on the topic with archaeology Flint Dibble; you can watch the recording of the conversation, “The Rise of Chud Classics” on Youtube.
I’ve also had a number of unrelated podcast appearances; I can’t remember which recent ones I have linked here, so I’ll just roundup the bunch. I sat down with Ancient History 101 to talk about the First Punic War, with Frames of Space to talk about insurgencies, protest movements and pushing back against the state, and with The Prancing Pony Podcast to talk about some of the military aspects of Tolkien’s Unfinished Tales (for two hours because I had a lot to say).
On for things that are not me. First, I want to note again Ancient History 101, Alexandra Sills’ new ancient history podcast, which is steadily building up a really impressive back-catalog of episodes with experts on exciting topics. The episodes range from topic themed episodes (“Slavery in Roman Society” or “What is the Spartan Mirage”) to more historical-events coverage or biographical (like episodes on Domitian, Themistocles and Fulvia) and even some ‘inside baseball’ on Classics (“How Do Museums Work?” “What is ‘Classics’ Anyway?”). Absolutely something to throw into your podcast rotation if you are even a little interested in antiquity.
In modern military theory reading, the mononymous James had a good short essay on where drones fit into modern warfare, making the argument – which I think is correct – that right now drones are working as just another kind of fires, filling capabilities that other weapon-systems could already do, only more cheaply. That’s not nothing, mind you: providing a capability in greater quantity or at lower cost can have a huge effect, but I think it calibrates expectations more accurately to the kind of changes we should expect to see in war as a result of drones: a change, to be sure, but perhaps not (yet) a revolution.
For this week’s book recommendation, I am going to recommend a very new book, J. Parshall, 1942: Crux of War (2026). Longtime readers will doubtless recognize Parshall as half of the author team behind the fantastic Shattered Sword (2005), the very second book recommended on this blog back in 2020.
The topic of 1942 is right there in the title: the book is a history of the Second World War in 1942, taking that year – which it argues was the crucial year – month by month. This is a great case of a situation where the book’s argument is tightly intertwined with its structure. Parshall argues that no individual battle in 1942 was decisive but that the year, taken in its totality across all theaters, was decisive, so his month-by-month structure serves to let the reader take in all of the theaters together (as someone would have done at the time!), rather than having them split up (as is more normal). Parshall also does a great job here of keeping a truly global perspective, refusing to leave out fighting in China, on the Eastern Front, in the Atlantic and so on, which sometimes get left out of other accounts. That requires, of course, a lot of very good writing to keep a reader anchored in what is going on as they shift theaters, but fortunately, Parshall is a very good writer and makes heavy use of maps and diagrams that accomplish the task.
Equally valuable, Parshall keeps an eye on the overall strategic situation throughout. The book opens with a summary of all of the major powers’ situations at the war’s start and poses to each a few strategic questions – the things they must do or avoid in order to be victorious. That creates a sort of benchmark against which the monthly progress can be tracked and helps the reader follow the significance of what is happening. Combined with the occasional ‘thematic’ sections within a given month, tracking one aspect of the war over a longer time frame, the book does a remarkable job keeping the reader connected both to the events of the moment and also the broader picture.
This book honestly is a masterpiece, a remarkable achievement. It’s also a lot of book, in the best possible way. The book itself runs some 1200 pages; it has the months marked on the side of the page for easy navigation. It has dozens and dozens of maps, images and diagrams. It is exhaustively well-cited. And it is really effectively and clearly written. Absolutely give it a look.
Frank Tipler jolted the astrophysics community in 1980 when he introduced self-replicating interstellar probes into discussion of the Fermi Paradox. The mathematical model of self-replication came from John von Neumann, and was codified in 1966 (after von Neumann’s death) by Arthur Burks in Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata (1966). SF fans will also know of Fred Saberhagen’s berserker novels and short stories (the first appeared in 1963). I’ve found an even earlier SF reference but will leave that for a future post. Right now I want to introduce Peter Marinko, who today weighs in on self-replication and the problems therein. Based in Uppsala, Sweden Peter holds an M.Sc. in metallurgy and has a career background in industrial process engineering. He has studied SETI under Erik Zackrisson at Uppsala University, and his current work explores the thermodynamics of technological civilizations — including a manuscript on high-exergy technospheres and the longevity of detectable civilizations, currently under peer review at the International Journal of Astrobiology. A preprint is available on Zenodo.
by Peter Marinko

Discussions of von Neumann probes — here and elsewhere — tend to treat replication as a systems problem: the probe arrives, mines local material, and builds a copy of itself. The hard part is usually assumed to be propulsion, navigation, or AI. As someone who has spent a career in metallurgy and industrial process engineering, I would like to suggest that the hardest part is the one that gets a single sentence: “mines local material and builds a copy.”
Let me raise four concrete problem areas, in increasing order of difficulty.
1. Beneficiation without gravity, water, or atmosphere
“Asteroid mining” is a misleading phrase. Mining is the easy part; the problem is beneficiation — concentrating useful elements out of undifferentiated regolith. Every terrestrial concentration process relies on things an asteroid lacks: gravity-driven sedimentation, water-based flotation, density separation in fluids, atmospheric combustion. Electrostatic and magnetic separation in microgravity are conceivable in principle, but neither has been demonstrated at industrial scale, and both work poorly on the fine, cohesive, electrostatically charged dust that dominates regolith.
2. Reduction metallurgy without an industrial hinterland
All terrestrial metal production rests on an invisible foundation: carbon or hydrogen as reducing agents, fluxes, and — critically — refractory materials for the furnaces. Refractories are the forgotten enabling technology of civilization. A furnace lining must itself be manufactured, at high temperature, in a furnace. Bootstrapping this loop from raw regolith, with fully closed chemical cycles (no atmosphere to vent to, no water to waste), is a chicken-and-egg problem that no study I am aware of has worked through at the level of actual process flowsheets.
3. The closure problem, honestly accounted
The classic NASA study (Freitas et al., 1980) assumed ~90–96% “closure” — the fraction of its own components a system can reproduce — with the remainder supplied as “vitamins” from home. But the missing few percent are not marginal; they are precisely the hardest items: semiconductors, precision bearings, sensors, and insulation. Consider something as unglamorous as wire insulation. Virtually all electrical insulation on Earth is organic polymer, resting on a petrochemical industry, resting in turn on a biosphere that spent hundreds of millions of years concentrating carbon. Inorganic alternatives (glass fiber, ceramics, mica) exist but are brittle, heavy, and require entirely different process chains to apply to fine conductors. A modern semiconductor fab is arguably the most complex artifact humanity has built, drawing on tens of thousands of specialized inputs. Shrinking that into a 500 kg seed — or even Freitas’ original 100-ton seed — is not an engineering detail. It may be the entire problem.
4. Aging over interstellar timescales
Even a probe that could replicate must first arrive functional after a voyage of tens of thousands of years. We have essentially no empirical data on machine longevity beyond ~50 years (Voyager, surviving on redundancy and switched-off instruments). Over interstellar timescales, materials face cumulative radiation damage and lattice defects, embrittlement and transmutation; creep and solid-state diffusion (solder joints, thin films and interfaces are only kinetically frozen, not thermodynamically stable); tin and zinc whisker growth; outgassing and cold welding in vacuum. The repair systems age too. Replication must outrun degradation — and degradation never sleeps.
A thermodynamic framing
These four problems share a common structure. A self-replicating probe is, in effect, a miniaturized high-exergy technosphere that must rebuild its entire exergy cascade — from raw, unconcentrated feedstock to precision components — at every node, before its own irreversible degradation catches up. The feasibility question is then not “does physics forbid it? (it does not) but “can accessible exergy per node sustain full process closure faster than irreversible losses accumulate?
This is the same ratio, I would argue, that governs the longevity of detectable civilizations generally — a question I explore in a recent preprint on the thermodynamics of technological civilizations. But the probe case is a cleaner test, because the system boundary is sharp and the accounting is (in principle) tractable.
Questions for discussion
1. Has anyone attempted an actual process flowsheet — not a block diagram — for closing even a simple metallurgical loop (say, iron from chondritic material to finished machine parts) without terrestrial inputs?
2. Is there a credible inorganic-only pathway for electrical insulation and semiconductor packaging?
3. What is the realistic closure fraction if “vitamins” are disallowed — and does the seed mass then grow beyond anything launchable?
4. Are there materials strategies (amorphous metals? self-annealing designs?) that could plausibly survive 10,000+ years of transit?
My suspicion, as a practitioner, is that von Neumann probes are constrained not by the laws of physics but by process-chain closure and materials aging — both, at root, thermodynamic limits. If that is right, it bears directly on the Fermi paradox: the galaxy may be quiet not because nobody tried, but because replication is harder than arithmetic suggests.
I would be glad to be proven wrong on any specific point above — ideally with a flowsheet.

As the wine business faces headwinds, both from climate change and from reduction in American alcohol consumption, vineyards are changing hands. What is the new crop? Houses...
The Mercury News has the story:
Housing plans in pricey Saratoga get lift from $100 million-plus deal
Homes are slated to be built on site of century-old vineyard By George Avalos
"The group bought the land in June 2025 for $30.6 million and embarked on a process to secure approval for a residential project on the property, which began operating as a vineyard around 1920.
Initially, the Wilson-led group proposed a 231-unit project known as Vineyard One at the corner of Chester Avenue and Allendale Avenue.
A series of negotiations with Saratoga planners and leaders eventually downsized the project to the current proposal that envisions a 64-unit housing development.
Of the 64 homes, 52 will be single-family residences for sale and 12 will be accessory dwelling units. Six of the ADUs will be rented to very low-income households, and six will be rented to moderate-income households, planning files show.
...
"The purchase and development plans have materialized at a time when the median price of a home in Saratoga is around $3.9 million, far higher than the California median price of $930,260 and the Santa Clara County median home price of $1.6 million, according to Redfin.
He is one of the new(ish) thinkers on the rise, here is his latest piece. Excerpt:
For most of the past decade, anti-billionaire language was a niche product. Democratic emails invoked billionaires in the mid-single digits through 2017 and 2018, spiked briefly to around 14 percent during the Warren and Sanders primary surge in 2019, and then settled back down—through the entire Biden presidency, the billionaire appeared in roughly one of every twenty to twenty-five Democratic fundraising emails, barely more than in Republican ones.
Then came January 2025. In the weeks after an inauguration that seated tech CEOs in the front row and the dizzying drama of Elon Musk’s ill-fated DOGE experiment, billionaire mentions in Democratic emails quadrupled, peaking above 20 percent of all emails sent and holding around 15 percent ever since. Anti-billionaire fundraising tactics are now a mainstay of Democratic messaging.
Yes, billionaire derangement syndrome is now a thing. As a side note, I was told that Andrew is the son of the great economist Robert E. Hall of Stanford.
The post Andrew Hall is on a roll appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Flickr recently updated their iOS/iPadOS app to version 5 (App Store link) and, while it’s not radically new, for a service whose changes have been incremental over recent years it contains a lot of differences. However I’ve yet to find any official changelog or update information.
In the App Store the release notes for last week’s version 5.0.0 are:
Flickr is back and better than ever — rebuilt from the ground up with a fresh new look and feel.
And for today’s version 5.0.1:
Bug fixes and improvements
Flickr has a frequently-updated blog but there’s not even a mention of the new app on there. Surely this is more important an event than many of those featured?
We can do better than this! So here’s a list of all the things that are worse about the new version, compiled from my own usage and all the recent bad reviews on the App Store.
When displaying multiple grouped photos from a person you’re following, it is no longer possible to view all the subsequent ones, other than the three or four initially displayed.
In the list of your Followers’ photos, their name now appears under their photos, so you must scroll down beyond the photos to see who took them. In fact, you might confuse their name with the photo(s) below, taken by someone else.
When scrolling down the list of your Followers’ photos, it will sometimes display the wrong avatar image for a person, and incorrect photos from further up the page, until the correct ones load (noticed on our especially slow internet connection today).
The Groups tab will say “Once you join a group, their photos and discussions will show up here. Try uploading your first photo”, even if you’re a member of [checks the app] 60 groups.
It is no longer possible to upload photos to Flickr using the share menu in other apps such as Photos.
It is no longer possible to add photos to Groups.
It is no longer possible to add info about which Flickr users are in a photo.
It is no longer possible to edit images. (Thanks Struan.)
When zooming into a photo the app no longer loads a higher resolution version, so now the zoomed-in version will be very pixellated.
It is no longer possible to set identical titles, descriptions etc. on multiple photos while uploading. You must set them for each photo individually.
When adding tags to a photo the recommended tags will no longer be based on tags you’ve used, but… just the same list of popular tags every single time? (e.g. I just tried uploading a photo of a cat and it suggested “flowers, nature, blue, garden, spring, macro, photography, beautiful, colorful, outdoor”.)
It is no longer possible to use capital letters in tags.
There are some other minor changes – cosmetic, organisational – that might or might not be improvements but, of course, these are overshadowed by the missing and broken functionality. Real release notes would cover those too but… where are they?
Similarly, some of the above things that appear broken or missing might be on the roadmap to be fixed or added soon but in the absence of any information from Flickr, who’s to know? What’s to stop people finally giving up on the place?
§ I do hope that most of these are temporary things but that last one – lack of support for capital letters in tags – concerns me, despite seeming like quite a small issue. It feels more like a conscious design decision, but one that’s a big change to how Flickr has worked since the start.
You always used to be able to use capital letters in tags, and these were normalised to a URL-friendly lowercase version behind the scenes. So if you tagged a photo with Herefordshire, and a subsequent one with herefordshire, they would use the same tag, with the API reporting both the raw capitalised version and the common, internal, _content version. e.g. this from the API for a photo.
{
"id": "5827-55299600888-23309",
"author": "35034346050@N01",
"authorname": "Phil Gyford",
"raw": "Herefordshire",
"_content": "herefordshire",
"machine_tag": 0
}
But now, if you try using capital letters and spaces in a tag in the app, it gets lowercased, and the spaces are removed. And the capital letters aren’t stored. e.g. I entered Test Tag 234 as a tag for a photo in the app, and this is its data from the API:
{
"id": "5827-55384566161-560070790",
"author": "35034346050@N01",
"authorname": "Phil Gyford",
"raw": "test tag 234",
"_content": "testtag234",
"machine_tag": 0
}
We can see the capital letters were discarded and not stored. And in the interface it displays the _content version, which also doesn’t include spaces:
I’ve no idea if there are also implications for tags in non-Latin characters.
§ I love Flickr and… no, wait, I loved Flickr, once upon a time. I want it to modernise and improve, to be something I could once again recommend to people. But it’s always hard, especially when they break the app and, apparently, can’t be arsed to communicate with anyone about the changes. Should we be worried?

Trees contain an archive – tales of planetary shifts, cosmic events, historical pivots – that we’re only just unlocking
- by Valerie Trouet
On EconLib, you will find all three parts here, in reverse order.
The post Redux of my Homer’s Odyssey essay appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary:
Tyler and Joel discuss European corporations vs. Chinese clans, why the Catholic Church became obsessed with cousin-marriage, how persistent cultural trends really are, why Chinese cities became so populous relative to Europe, why it took so long for European living standards to surpass China’s, why sinified invaders kept getting swallowed by the dynasties they conquered, how geography kept Europe fragmented and China unified, where India fits into the story, why the Romans never made spectacles, why British soldiers stood two inches taller than the French, what powered the sudden rise of 19th-century German science, how disruptive winning a Nobel is, and much more.
Unlike many Conversations, in this one I could excerpt just about any section with equal interest. Here is one bit:
COWEN: Why does it take so long for the wealthiest parts of Western Europe to surpass Chinese living standards? Say that’s happened by 1700 or 1720, that’s many centuries after this medieval divergence. If it takes so many centuries, is the medieval divergence really the relevant factor? Why is it such a slow process?
MOKYR: Yes, I think it is. I think it’s a main factor. I think the idea of looking at standard of living, one thing, I’m very skeptical about how standards of living are actually measured. I know that this is what Pomeranz and other people have, and Jack Goldstone and other people have argued that the living standards in China were comparable to the West as late as 1750. I’m not 100 percent sure that that is true. Certainly, for my money, what really defines the divergence is that, technologically, the gap between the two countries starts to become visible at the time of the Renaissance, in terms of a whole bunch of things that you see growing in Europe and stagnant in China.
Now, keep in mind, of course, that part of the European growth is due to the fact that they borrowed ideas from China. Then the Industrial Revolution consists, to some extent, of imports institution by Europeans trying to mimic the goods that they were importing from China—not just from China, from India as well. Pottery is a good example. One of the things they really wanted from China was Chinaware. That’s why it’s called Chinaware. It took them a while to be able to match the Chinese capability in the ceramic industry, but they do so eventually. Then they stop importing this stuff from China. The same is true for, say, cotton and other products that we’re getting from the East.
European living standards, I think, should be measured, in part, by the fact that when the Europeans start their voyages across the globe in the late 15th and early 16th century, they are able to bring in a whole bunch of new crops and new techniques from other areas which they merely adopt. You’ll see Europeans very soon growing tobacco and potatoes and corn and other things like that. They are the agents of global change. Not only that they change their own diets, they change the Chinese diets because the Europeans bring from the New World things like peanuts and sweet potatoes and things like that. They change the Chinese diets, but the Chinese themselves are not agents here.
They are accepting the stuff that the Europeans did to some extent, and they’re rejecting others, but it’s the Europeans who are the agents of change here. They are the entrepreneurs. They are the people who bring about the changes, Tyler. My sense is that typifies the difference between Europeans and the Chinese. Europeans are more aggressive. They are more outward-looking. In the end, what you see by the 1830s and 1840s, you see that the technological gap is huge, in some ways much larger than the living standards gap. Even in the 19th century, in terms of food, the Chinese were capable of producing enough food. The number of famines in China is probably not a lot worse than in Europe.
When you see what happens during the First Opium War, one English ship is blowing all of this sort of mighty empire to pieces, and the Chinese have to accept this terribly humiliating peace, you can sort of see how the technological gap has grown between the two. For me, that is much more telling than the living standards. The other thing that I should like to point out is that, when you look at Europe in the 16th and 17th century, you can see that the capability of expanding the set of useful knowledge, including science, is just growing very rapidly. Whether there is a scientific revolution or not is a debate that I want to get into.
Certainly, by 1700, Europe is on the verge of really changing our understanding of how creation works. That’s not just Newton and Galileo. There’s a whole body of work that is emerging. There’s really nothing parallel like that in China. China is a very sophisticated society in many ways. The literacy rates are high. They have a well-funded and well-organized system of education, but they don’t really continue their earlier forays into science and into new technology.
Somebody actually went out and looked at Joseph Needham’s many volumes on Chinese technology and science, or Science and Civilisation [in China], as he called it, and he discovered something—which I guess we all knew, but they put numbers on it—almost nothing that Needham pointed out as an innovation happens after 1400. There’s complete stagnation setting in and some of the things that they knew how to make in earlier times, like the sophisticated clocks that they built in the 11th century, they disappear. For me, that’s more telling than how many calories of carbohydrates were consumed on average, if we could ever calculate that correctly.
Interesting throughout, and of course self-recommending. I very much enjoyed Joel’s recent book Two Paths to Prosperity: Culture and Institutions in Europe and China, 1000–2000, with Greif and Tabellini.
The post My Conversation with the excellent Joel Mokyr appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

On June 24, 2026, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck northern Venezuela, followed under a minute later by a magnitude 7.5 mainshock. Together, the quakes left immense damage and loss of life across the region. In the days that followed, satellite-based maps of ground displacement revealed how the land surface moved, providing insight into the forces behind the severe destruction in locations such as La Guaira and other coastal cities in La Guaira state.
This map was produced using data from the NISAR (NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellite and processed by the NISAR science team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Scientists used a technique called InSAR, which compares data from repeat passes to detect subtle changes in the distance between the satellite and the ground. Images acquired on June 25 and June 30, after the quakes, were compared with images from June 13 and June 18, before the quakes.
NISAR views Earth at an angle, about 40 degrees from straight down, allowing it to capture a mix of horizontal and vertical displacement. In this map, red areas show where the ground moved east and up; blue areas moved west and down. Because the earthquake occurred on a strike-slip fault, however, most of the displacement shown in this map was horizontal (east and west).
White areas indicate little to no land displacement, including a thin strip near the middle-left of the scene, close to Morón, marking roughly where the fault ruptured at depth. The fault is part of a network of fractures that lies along the boundary between the Caribbean plate to the north and the South American plate to the south. Scientists say faults along this plate boundary, including the San Sebastián fault system where these quakes likely occurred (and possibly part of the Boconó system), have long been accumulating strain.
The fault rupture propagated offshore, toward the east, and then back onshore near the international airport north of Caracas, marked by the narrow white band visible between westward and eastward displacement. Just south of this fault section, the deep blue color indicates that the westward surface displacement along this part of the fault was far greater than elsewhere, reaching as much as 60 centimeters (24 inches).
“These are reasons why the damage in Caracas and La Guaira was so extreme,” said Eric Fielding, a geophysicist at JPL who provided the maps. “InSAR tells us a lot about what happened during this earthquake.”
Using the NISAR data, the U.S. Geological Survey refined its fault-slip model, or “finite fault model,” to better constrain how the fault slipped at depth, including along the rupture’s eastern section. “That is extremely helpful for the people who need to understand why damage was so severe in that area,” Fielding said.
The displacement maps for this event were provided through NISAR’s Urgent Response (UR) system, a fast-track process that can deliver data within 12 to 24 hours to support disaster response. The rapid processing relies on predicted orbit information, so UR maps are preliminary until they are later reprocessed with precise orbit information, typically within a day or two. This marks the first time the NISAR UR system has been used to map surface displacement from a large earthquake.
NASA Earth Observatory map by Lauren Dauphin, using data provided Eric Fielding and processed by the NISAR science team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Story by Kathryn Hansen.
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Suited head-to-toe in khaki, Eric Robinson stands with hands on his hips, monitoring the hustle and bustle of Operation Helo‘s mobile command center in Taylorsville, North Carolina. The trailer, which was transformed into a fully functional command post just one day prior, is lined with massive 40-inch monitors illuminated by the organization’s Slack channel, while muffled walkie-talkie voices fill the focused silence. Two hours into their mock rescue mission, a simulated distress call crackles through the room: coordinates, a situation report, a pilot’s voice responding on the other end. Eighteen months after tropical storm Helene made landfall in western North Carolina, this is what preparation for the next storm looks like.
“We grew over the course of 11 days to what we have now,” said Robinson, the co-founder and executive director of Operation Helo. “This is the culmination of all of our work.”
Seventeen members of the organization, including six helicopter pilots, gathered at Operations Director Natasha Rodriguez’s 40-acre home in early March, with a shared goal of being ready for whatever comes next. To them, this is not a training exercise. It’s a “strategic mission planning” designed to stress-test technology, streamline the process of assigning missions to pilots and ensure nothing slips through the cracks when the next disaster strikes.

Operation Helo is one of several North Carolina-based nonprofits formed in the aftermath of Helene. In the immediate wake of the storm, residents of Asheville and the surrounding regions were left without internet access, drinking water, information about the safety of their loved ones, and, for many, a home. The mountainous, flooded terrain made access to aid even more difficult, leaving those stranded in areas inaccessible to vehicles. When federal relief couldn’t yet mobilize, Operation Helo airlifted supplies by helicopter, Mission Mules delivered aid on mule-back through flooded mountain trails and Down Home NC canvassed rural areas door-to-door. Now, all three are expanding beyond Helene.
“Nonprofits and spontaneous volunteer efforts are filling the gap of trying to meet the needs that official government efforts aren’t able to address,” said Dr. Samantha Montano, a professor of emergency management at Massachusetts Maritime Academy. “Because of the size of Helene and how much need there was, you see a big portion of that response being led by nonprofits and other kinds of grassroots community organizations.”
For Operation Helo, that gap opened on Sept. 27, 2024, the day Helene made landfall in North Carolina. Just five days later, Operation Helo incorporated as an official 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Robinson brought together a group of volunteer pilots, and soon enough, various community members showed up to support their post at the Hickory Regional Airport. Natasha Rodriguez and her husband, Jose, were among these volunteers, starting out in the call center and triaging assistance amid the rapid influx of devastating requests.
“I will definitely say this is nothing that any one of us had on our bingo cards, but it has been such a blessing,” Rodriguez said. “We have been boots on the ground pretty much from the beginning, even to now.”

Meanwhile, 50 miles northeast of Hickory, Mike and Michele Toberer were readying their mules at their packer ranch in Harmony, North Carolina. The husband and wife were about to head down to South Carolina for a planned training session with the U.S. Marines when Helene hit, and the trip was abruptly canceled due to the unexpected extreme flooding. Even 100 miles from the Blue Ridge Mountains, where the storm hit the hardest, the Toberers lost power in their home. The following day, when it came back, the news exposed them to the destruction and widespread needs of the victims in the western regions of the state.
“We left that next morning,” said Mike Toberer, the Mission Mules co-founder. “We spent two or three weeks there right in the beginning, and we still are moving food and supplies there right now.”
After a few months on the front lines of delivering aid, Mike and Michele grew wary of their ability to continue. Not only had they witnessed an abundance of tragedy, but also two of their mules were killed in the aid and recovery process. Then, Samaritan’s Purse called.
“We figured that was God telling us that we are going to wrap this up,” Toberer said. “Then the next day, Samaritan’s Purse called us and said, ‘Hey, we want to get you enough mules so you can keep going.’ They restocked all the mules that we lost, and that’s when we decided, ‘This is what we’re going to be doing here.'”
In those early chaotic days, before federal relief could reach the cutoff and isolated, these groups were finding their own ways in. Operation Helo and Mission Mules were united by physical access — they had the assets to reach people and places that conventional relief simply couldn’t. Down Home NC, a grassroots organizing group with deep roots in rural communities across the state, was leveraging something even harder to engender: trust.
Down Home NC had spent years embedding itself in rural communities across North Carolina long before Helene arrived. Founded in 2017, the organization focuses on base-building and political mobilization among multiracial working-class residents in small towns, empowering communities that often go unheard in state-level policy decisions.
When Helene hit in September 2024, Down Home was already in the middle of election season, knocking on doors across 13 counties to encourage voter registration and turnout. They used that established infrastructure to show up differently, yet meaningfully, when the storm hit.
“Because of the work that we did to build our relationship within the community, it was a no-brainer for our folks to take this mobilization effort that we were already in the middle of and turn it into a wellness canvassing effort instead,” said Down Home’s Communications Director Taí Coates-Wedde. “So rather than door knocking and asking people, ‘Hey, what’s your plan to go?’, it became door knocking to ask, ‘Hey, are you OK?'”
Beyond needs assessment, Down Home NC focused on creating informational resources for the community — primarily helping residents navigate FEMA and get the help they needed.
“We wanted people to know their tenant rights, because at the same time that people were still trying to figure out if their family members were alive or where their house had gone to, there were a lot of rich people and corporations coming in and scooping up that land out from underneath them,” said Coates-Wedde. “Renters were losing their homes because their landlords were selling out from under them. People lost their jobs, people lost their access to money, and at the same time, rent was still due.”
When the early chaos died down and news coverage of Helene’s impact on western North Carolina tapered off, Down Home developed the website Keep WNC Home as a community resource database. Once the information was compiled, Down Home’s communications team screenshotted it and distributed it via text blast — bypassing the internet entirely — casting a wider net beyond their existing membership to reach anyone in the area who needed help.
“These groups are generally better tied in with the local community, which means they sometimes have a better sense of what the exact needs are than more formal groups,” said Dr. Montano. “Also, the lack of formal procedures means they can be more flexible to meet the needs of the community.”
Where Down Home NC worked street by street, Operation Helo worked from above. In the mountains of western North Carolina, where roads had been swallowed by floodwater and entire communities sat unreachable by vehicle, helicopters became the fastest lifeline available — and the group arrived at the destruction before the National Guard itself.
Operation Helo’s pilots didn’t wait for official dispatch. In the immediate aftermath of the storm, the organization relied heavily on social media to identify where help was needed. Family members left comments and called in from out of state, reporting that they’d lost contact with a relative in Pensacola or Burnsville, not knowing whether they were alive. Pilots flying supply runs to local fire departments would relay these wellness check requests on the ground, building a real-time picture of where to go next. The organization airlifted doctors into areas overwhelmed by chainsaw injuries as residents tried to clear their own roads. They delivered insulin, oxygen and EpiPens — the last of which became an unexpected urgent need around day five, when displaced bee populations, their habitats destroyed by the storm, began stinging residents en masse.
“When somebody needs help in that moment, and you can bring them just that little piece of comfort, that’s an amazing feeling,” Rodriguez said. “Because you brought them something quickly that maybe would have taken them days to get.”

On the ground, in hollows and along mountain trails impassable even by ATV, Mission Mules was operating in the spaces helicopters could not reach. Where tree cover was too dense for an aerial drop, Mike and Michele Toberer moved supplies on mule-back, each animal carrying 150 to 200 pounds of food, medicine and equipment. They had crafted an efficient system: trucks hauled supplies as far as roads allowed, Kawasaki side-by-sides pushed further into the terrain, and then the mules took over, traversing fallen timber with the help of Green Berets wielding chainsaws ahead of them.
The two organizations found a natural rhythm together. Helicopters from Samaritan’s Purse and Operation Helo would air-drop supply pallets at the tops of mountains, and Mission Mules would collect them there and carry them down, reversing the usual direction of effort to spare the animals the hardest part of the climb.
“Helicopters and mules, you know, we train the military, and that’s what we do for a living,” Toberer said. “We work together quite a bit.”
That collaboration was put to the test deep in the mountains near Newland, where Toberer’s team cut their way through downed trees to reach a hollow that hadn’t seen outside contact since the storm. When they arrived, they found an elderly woman in her 80s sitting on the front porch of her crooked, flood-damaged house, a .22 rifle across her lap. She asked who they were. She asked if they were from the government. When Toberer told her they weren’t, she relaxed.
“The deeper you went into the mountains, the more you would hear that,” Toberer said. “Less government, more help.”
A year and a half after Helene, Operation Helo has deployed to disasters across the country, most notably to the catastrophic flooding in Kerr County, Texas, during the summer of 2025, where 63 people were reported missing. Operation Helo arrived at the scene within five hours, alongside six volunteer pilots based in Texas. That deployment laid the foundation for what will become Operation Helo’s first official chapter, a Texas-based team in Burnet County that can reach disasters in Louisiana, Oklahoma and Arizona faster than any crew flying out of North Carolina.

Arizona is next on the chapter map, likely by the end of 2026, with two or three additional states to follow in 2027. Supporting all of this growth is a formal partnership with Robinson Helicopter, which has significantly expanded the organization’s fleet and operational capacity, and a work-in-progress contract with the National Guard.
Mission Mules has been building its own national footprint, one disaster at a time. Since Helene, Toberer and his team have deployed to eight states, including four separate trips to West Virginia, where they have developed a working relationship with state troopers who now call them directly when mountain communities get cut off by ice or flooding. They have evacuated horses from wildfire zones in Oklahoma, packed supplies through flood debris in Kentucky and Maryland, and are now integrating drones into their operations to expand their search-and-rescue capabilities.
“I feel that our future is going to go on and on,” Toberer said. “We just keep getting more and more contact, and we’re working with more people.”
Within North Carolina, Coates-Wedde and her Down Home NC team are working to establish resilience hubs in rural communities. Three pilot locations are planned for 2026, scaling to at least 10 active chapter counties by 2027 and 2028. The hubs are designed to address what Coates-Wedde calls the “intersecting challenges of climate vulnerability, infrastructure neglect and economic inequality,” which disproportionately affect rural communities across the state.
“Even last year, in July, tropical storm Chantal hit North Carolina, and the middle of the state was completely slammed with flooding too,” Coates-Wedde said. “We are providing people with resources, but we’re also in a listening phase right now, to hear from our community members about how to best reach them. That’s how we build relationships, and that’s how we’ll continue to ensure that we’re making a community-centered solution.”
The expansion of all three organizations is happening against a backdrop that Dr. Montano carefully studies. The nonprofit disaster sector was already strained before the Trump administration began pulling back federal resources. Volunteer fatigue and donation fatigue have been flagged as early as 2016, and the COVID pandemic pulled a significant portion of older disaster volunteers out of the field permanently.
“When you pair that trend with these threats from the administration to pull back federal resources, you’re really creating this perfect recipe for disaster, in terms of there not really being anybody left to meet the needs of communities,” said Dr. Montano.
She is also cautious about the instinct of these groups to go national. Her advice to emerging disaster nonprofits is to specialize locally, move from response to recovery and then to preparedness, and find a reliable funding source before expansion becomes a liability. Most disaster nonprofits, she said, burn out within a few years.
Montano’s hesitation is grounded in decades of research on disaster nonprofits that burn bright and then fade after the storm. But 18 months after Helene, Operation Helo, Mission Mules and Down Home NC are still showing up — not just in western North Carolina, but across the country.
During Helene, they showed up with what they had — helicopters, mules, community understanding — and figured out the rest. What has kept them going, each in their own way, is the same thing that started them: proximity to and deep care for the people they serve.
“We judge our impact based on who we help,” Robinson said.
This article is part of Caught in the Current: Helene Recovery in Asheville and Beyond a project that we have partnered on with the School of Journalism at Northeastern University. Their enterprising students took on the story of Asheville, North Carolina, a community still dealing with the devastation of Hurricane Helene, 18 months later. As part of our mentoring program, we’re amplifying their efforts by sharing the amazing work produced by their students. Visit the official interactive magazine for the project HERE.
“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.
The post Rapid response: After Helene, nonprofits emerged to fill gaps. Now they’re preparing for the next storm. appeared first on DCReport.org.
Another bit of follow-up on squircle jail on MacOS. The most-asked question in my inbox from readers is this: Is mandating the squircle a concession to the much-rumored upcoming touchscreen MacBooks?
No.
The visible shape and appearance of an app icon is unrelated to its clickable — or, perhaps soon, tappable — area. Rendering a visible squircle doesn’t change the shape of the clickable/tappable target area around an icon. In the bygone days when MacOS permitted delicious app icons — and Apple crafted delicious icons for its own apps — you could click in the middle of, say, the QuickTime Player icon and it just worked. It would have been pretty nutty if it didn’t.


We’re now in the midst of one of these now and again collective Democratic meltdowns, filled with dooming laments, drama, intra-party attacks and insults, rending of clothes, “reckonings” and more. But there’s a fact, little discussed and under-appreciated, that is nestled in these collective freak-outs. This may sound nonsensical or perhaps a semantic point with no real meaning. But it’s foundational to how the Democratic Party functions and why it functions differently and often disappointingly compared to the GOP.
We hear lots of arguments in Democratic politics that the party’s base is its left wing. There’s a certain logic to that. It’s a center-left party so it’s left wing is its base and it’s filled out by more fair-weather voters or less ideological ones. In a sense it’s really their party or they’re the legitimate owners of it as soon as corporate interests and softies and other interlopers can be kicked to the curb. But it’s not. The most obvious reason is that are just too few of them. But they are also very different, sociologically, ideologically, demographically from the rest of the party. This isn’t just a dig on the left. The same applies to white liberals. There are dramatically more of them. But they are still really, really different from much of the rest of the party.
The closest thing the Democratic Party has to a base is Black people. They make up between 20 to 25% of its voters. Their attachment to the party is consistent, intergenerational, communal and deeply embedded in historic strategies of communal self-protection going back well over a century. But a quarter of the party’s voters is still not that large. And even more important the Black community is still very different from the rest of the Democratic Party — demographically, ideologically, religiously and combining these all together just in terms of historical and present-day lived experience.
To pick just one of potentially countless examples, white liberals are among the least churched people in American society. Black people are among the most churched. And they are key pillars of the same party.
One can also argue that the modern Democratic Party is a basically female party. Its voters are disproportionately female. Its mores, iconography, ideas about power, aggression, empathy are increasingly gendered, whereas the GOP is increasingly organized around a kind of hyper-masculinity, or, less generously, rapists. But again, this can’t be a party base since a huge minority of women consistently vote Republican. And the partisan split is heavily dependent on race, religiosity and marriage.
To the extent that anything unites these groups it is that they, as groups, at least historically, are mostly outside the country’s core centers of power.
Why does this matter? Certainly every party or large societal group has various factions and pressure groups. It matters because lots of groups have the sense that the Democratic Party is fundamentally theirs or that they should have some pride of place in its direction. But in a purely descriptive sense this is simply not true. And that leads to what we might call chronic discourses of betrayal running through all its factional struggles. We’re seeing one of those now, unfolding in multiple directions.
It’s also why the party’s leadership seems chronically weak.
I’m here banging the drum endlessly about how the top leadership of the Democratic Party needs to be persuaded and reshaped into embodying more “fight.” I believe that as much as I believe anything. But we can believe that while recognizing that this chronic weakness isn’t an accident or just the product of the poor character of particular leaders. Because the party is a coalition party (and that’s not just a throwaway phrase), it’s inherently fractious and hard to hold together. Because, as we noted above, it’s made up of these very different groups. If you move decisively in one direction there’s a good chance you’ll lose one of them. So that makes you very cautious. Very focused on not upsetting the apple cart.
It’s often a cliche that the Democratic Party is a coalition party, or it used to be. But there’s not a lot of unpacking about what that means.
How is this different from the GOP? They have factions, right?
It’s actually quite different. The GOP is made up of white, conservative, Christians. Increasingly, it is made up disproportionately of men. Of course, there are non-whites and non-Christians. There are lots of Republican women. So you might be a Republican and not be white or Christian but you know (or should know) that you’re living in the white, conservative, Christian house. That may work for you. It probably does or you wouldn’t be a Republican. White, conservative Christians call the shots. You know that. There’s lots of talk about factions in the GOP — today, MAGA, Carlsonites, Wall Streeters and Silicon Valley. Half a century ago it was “fusionism” — pulling together traditionalists, laissez capitalists and foreign policy hawks. But there was far less attention to the fact that these purported factions were different ideological flavors, areas of interest of white, conservative Christians.
The GOP base is also big, more than big enough to call the shots in internecine battles and, critically, is demographically, culturally, and racial similar to the rest of the party. So they are a sine qua non of anything the party might want to do. And when they say how things have to be, the rest of the party tends to follow because they’re fairly similar to them. When Republican leaders are more instinctively obstructionist, happier to take hostages, happier to kick ass, this is a big part of the reason why. It’s simply an easier party to manage. Not easy, I’m sure they’d agree. But easier.
What does this all mean? It means there’s a reason the Democratic Party is difficult to lead. It’s fractious. That breeds a timidity among its leaders and you have to at least understand the roots of that timidity if you’re going to try to change or ameliorate it. It also means most of the folks who insist they’re the base of the Democratic Party simply are not, not in a meaningful functional sense. It’s a coalition of really, really different kinds of people.