Welcome to Edition 8.21 of the Rocket Report! We’re back after the Thanksgiving holiday with more launch news. Most of the big stories over the last couple of weeks came from abroad. Russian rockets and launch pads didn’t fare so well. China’s launch industry celebrated several key missions. SpaceX was busy, too, with seven launches over the last two weeks, six of them carrying more Starlink Internet satellites into orbit. We expect between 15 and 20 more orbital launch attempts worldwide before the end of the year.
As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets, as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Another Sarmat failure. A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fired from an underground silo on the country’s southern steppe on November 28 on a scheduled test to deliver a dummy warhead to a remote impact zone nearly 4,000 miles away. The missile didn’t even make it 4,000 feet, Ars reports. Russia’s military has been silent on the accident, but the missile’s crash was seen and heard for miles around the Dombarovsky air base in Orenburg Oblast near the Russian-Kazakh border. A video posted by the Russian blog site MilitaryRussia.ru on Telegram and widely shared on other social media platforms showed the missile veering off course immediately after launch before cartwheeling upside down, losing power, and then crashing a short distance from the launch site.
These are the releases that I kept on listening to, in no particular order:
Aart Bergwerff, Bach, Six Trio Sonatas for Organ.
Jonathan Ferrucci, Bach Toccatas.
Tom Hicks, Chopin Nocturnes. So little rubato, this one took time getting used to but now I love it.
Linos-Ensemble, Schoenberg-Webern-Berg, The Waltz Arrangements. I am surprised I like this one at all, it brings together the two main strands of Viennese music at the time.
Yuja Wang, Shostakovich Piano Concerti and pieces from Op.87.
i am selecting these based on a) are they truly great and important pieces of classical music, and b) does this particular recording add something to the interpretations already out there?
The advance release of Q3 GDP has been cancelled. Q3 GDP will be released on Dec 23rd.
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased from 2.8% q/q sarr to 3.0% The upward revision was largely due to the strong September durable goods report that led us to revise higher our equipment estimate. [December 5th estimate] emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +3.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.2pp to +2.6%. [December 5th estimate]
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 5, down from 3.8 percent on December 4. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.7 percent. [December 5th estimate]
1. Best DC art works? (FT) Surely Manet’s The Railway should be on the list? Does Dulles Airport count? The Iwo Jima Memorial or Vietnam Memorial? Maybe even the Air Force Memorial?
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2025.
CPI Shelter was up 3.6% year-over-year in September, down slightly from 3.6% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Housing (PCE) was up 3.7% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.
The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):
Key measures are above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.4, reflecting a 1.3% increase in November’s wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to October. The index is mostly unchanged compared to November 2024. The long-term average monthly move for November is a decrease of 0.6%. emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.
The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in November (seasonally adjusted) and were mostly unchanged YoY.
Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent).
Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7 percent.
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From the preceding month, the PCE price index for September increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for September increased 2.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago. emphasis added
The September PCE price index increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.7 percent YoY in August.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, down from 2.9 percent in August.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income was at expectations and spending was below expectations.
The International Space Station is pictured from the SpaceX Dragon crew spacecraft during a fly around of the orbiting lab that took place following its undocking from the Harmony module’s space-facing port on Nov. 8, 2021. Image: ESA / NASA / T. Pesquet
After 25 years of continuous human presence, the International Space Station is heading into its final half decade of planned habitation.
NASA and its international partners are planning to intentionally deorbit the orbiting laboratory around 2030 or shortly thereafter. SpaceX was contracted valued at up to $843 million to build the United States Deorbit Vehicle (USDV), which will help guide the space station towards a splashdown in an uninhabited portion of the Pacific Ocean.
On Sunday, Dec. 7 NASA astronaut Mike Fincke will assume the role of ISS Commander, taking over from Russian cosmonaut Sergey Ryzhikov. The cosmonaut along with his colleague, Alexey Zubritsky and NASA astronaut Jonny Kim, will then board their Soyuz spacecraft and undock Monday evening to complete their 245-day mission in orbit.
The seven-member Expedition 73 crew gathers together for a portrait on Nov. 27, 2025, celebrating NASA astronaut Mike Fincke’s (center) 500 cumulative days in space over four missions since 2004. In the front from left are, Roscosmos cosmonaut Sergey Ryzhikov, NASA astronaut Zena Cardman, Mike Fincke, and NASA astronaut Jonny Kim. In the back are, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut Kimiya Yui and Roscosmos cosmonauts Oleg Platonov and Alexey Zubritsky. Image: NASA
With funding from the recent budget bill from Congress and renewed promise from NASA Administrator nominee Jared Isaacman to “maximize the scientific value of every dollar that Congress affords the agency,” the space station will continue to be a bustling hub of science for its final five years.
On Thursday, the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) announced an extension of its cooperative agreement with NASA to allow the non-profit to continue managing the ISS National Laboratory through 2030. This allows CASIS, through the ISS National Lab, to continue managing up to 50 percent of the flight allocation on cargo missions and up to 50 percent of U.S. Operating Crew time for science backed by them.
The ISS National Lab backed more than 940 payloads launched to the space station during the period of CASIS management, which began in 2011.
“For nearly 14 years, NASA has entrusted CASIS with managing this incredible asset for our nation and for the benefit of humanity,” said Ramon (Ray) Lugo, principal investigator and chief executive officer of CASIS. “We are honored that NASA has extended this unique partnership through 2030, and we will continue to work in collaboration, pushing the limits of space-based R&D for the benefit of life on Earth while driving a robust and sustainable market economy in space.”
Going to and fro
While the science planned for the ISS is in no short supply, the methods of getting it and its inhabitants to and from the space station is a trickier matter.
The most recent wrinkle came in the wake of the Soyuz MS-28 launch. After NASA astronaut Chris Williams along with Russian cosmonauts Sergey Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev, the mobile service platform, which allows technicians access to the engine section of the rocket prior to launch, collapsed into the flame duct at Site 31.
According to Russia-based journalist, Anatoly Zak, there are varying estimates of how long repairs could take, with at least one source telling him that it could take “up to two years” and that the immediate path forward wasn’t clear.
Sources: Roskosmos has a spare service platform similar to the one that crashed after Soyuz liftoff Thursday, however its installation will require a major work at the pad.
Updates: https://t.co/0e2wF3URflpic.twitter.com/V80KhNgFm2
In a statement published to its official Telegram account, Roscosmos said that the damaged would be fixed “in the nearest time,” but didn’t provide details. Spaceflight Now reached out to the Russian space agency for comment and is waiting to hear back.
For its part, NASA mostly diverted questions to Roscosmos. Russia’s Progress cargo spacecraft not only deliver supplies but also propellants for the Russian-side of the complex, used to maintain the station’s orbital altitude and also to assist with attitude control.
Some reboost functions are being performed by a SpaceX Cargo Dragon vehicle outfitted with a special boost kit in its unpressurized trunk. A NASA spokesperson said that this Dragon, launched to the ISS on the Commercial Resupply Services 33 (CRS-33) mission “will undock in late January 2026, before splashing down and returning critical science and hardware to teams on Earth.”
“Station has sufficient capability for reboost and attitude control, and there are no expected impacts to this capability,” a spokesperson said on Thursday.
M+139: Time lapse of SpaceX CRS-33 Dragon docking to the Node2 Forward Port last week, taken from the window of Crew-11’s Dragon. Nikon Z9 | 15mm | ISO 1000, f/1.8, 1/500s. pic.twitter.com/cfiMAmyeQ0
As for crew capabilities, it’s unclear how much the Site 31 pad damage will delay the launch of the Soyuz MS-29 mission, if at all. A July 2025 press release from NASA announcing its astronaut, Anil Menon, as a crew member stated that the Soyuz MS-29 mission would launch in June 2026.
However, on Thursday, aspokesperson for the agency said the mission “has always been scheduled to launch in July 2026.”
As for U.S. crewed missions, the SpaceX Crew-12 mission is the next up to bat after NASA confirmed that the next flight of a Boeing CST-100 Starliner spacecraft (Starliner-1) would be a cargo-only mission.
Starliner may carry crew on its next voyage, but that depends on the outcome of the Starliner-1 mission.
Sketching the future
In these final five years, NASA and its partners will begin winding down station operations and in the immediate years before its demise, the station will be slowly lowered using orbital drag and the station’s thrusters over the course of two to two-and-a-half years, according to Dana Weigel, ISS Program Manager, during a post-launch Crew-11 briefing.
“The Russian segment is prime for doing all of that. So, all of the attitude control, debris avoidance, anything we do with actively lowering is from the Russian segment,” Weigel said.
“Once we get down to the point of actually deorbiting, our current plan is to have the Russian segment do attitude control and the USDV do actual thrusting and boost,” she added. “That gives us additional layers of redundancy, so that if something happened with the attitude control, you can then switch over to the USDV. So, it’s very much an integrated plan and an integrated solution.”
An artist’s impression of SpaceX’s ISS Deorbit Vehicle pushing the lab toward a controlled re-entry and breakup in the 2030 timeframe, after a formal decision to retire the lab complex after three decades of operation. Graphic: SpaceX
One way that delays to future Progress vehicle launches may impact the station is also in stocking up on fuel for those future lowering burns as well as attitude control.
“Part of what Roscosmos is working on right now is fuel delivery. So, we’ve got to get the fuel reserves on station to the point where they can do their portions of this,” Weigel said in early August. “Latest predictions are that will probably be at the right level in early 2028 and we’ll probably start drifting down in mid-2028. We’ve got to make sure we have the fuel there and everyone’s ready to go. And then the USDV will arrive mid-2029.”
As for the crews onboard, assuming the current schedule holds, the final years onboard station may look something like the following:
Feb. 2026 – SpaceX Crew-12
July 2026 – Soyuz MS-29
Oct. 2026 – SpaceX Crew-13 or Starliner-2
March 2027 – Soyuz MS-30
June 2027 – Dragon or Starliner
Nov. 2027 – Soyuz MS-31
Feb. 2028 – Dragon or Starliner
July 2028 – Soyuz MS-32
Oct. 2028 – Dragon or Starliner
March 2029 – Soyuz MS-33
June 2029 – Dragon or Starliner
Nov. 2029 – Soyuz MS-34
Feb. 2030 – Dragon or Starliner
Asked whether NASA would want its final crew onboard station to be comprised of seasoned veterans instead of making sure its newest astronauts get flight experience Weigel told Spaceflight Now following the Crew-11 briefing that it’s a complicated question.
“I think there are so many different factors that can work on that. One of the things from a medical consideration standpoint is we do limit radiation exposure for crew members and if we’re asking for a year-long mission, we have to factor all of that in for crew health,” Weigel said.
“So, in an ideal sense, you’d say, ‘Yeah, send me somebody who’s flown, who’s great at spacewalks, this, that and the other.’ But too much experience puts you over the radiation limit.”
Sufficiently uncompromising meaning-making is unethical violence. The ethically optimal amount of anomie is not zero. These two claims frame the problem this essay addresses: the human drive to generate meaning is powerful and indispensable, yet it becomes ethically dangerous the moment it seeks to eliminate uncertainty. Meaning-making promises orientation, coherence, and moral clarity, but it often delivers these by rearranging the world to fit the inward demands of the self. When meaning-making becomes uncompromising—when it refuses correction, resists limits, and converts ambiguity into simple narratives—it harms others not by conscious intention but by narrative necessity. The cure is not to abolish meaning-making but to restrain it with duties, submit it to feedback, and cultivate the virtues that allow a person to withstand the discomfort of not knowing.
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Meaning-making begins with selective framing. Before any explicit judgment, the mind has already chosen what features of a situation are salient and what may be ignored. This selection is not neutral. It is the first ethical act, for it determines what kinds of meaning will later seem natural. Consider a citizen in a developed country confronted with a sudden influx of refugees. One person’s meaning-making drive foregrounds suffering families, bombed cities, the universal vulnerability of human beings. Another foregrounds insecurity, cultural disruption, or competition for jobs and services. Neither is yet making an ethical argument, but each has already accepted a frame that prepares different moral postures. The danger is that these frames present themselves as reality rather than as partial, interest-laden constructions. Meaning arises within these frames—“a nation of refuge,” “a nation under strain”—but the framing itself has already tilted moral perception before moral deliberation begins.
From this point, the meaning-making drive tends to fail in two predictable ways. The first is escalation. Meaning-making intensifies its own commitments, because stronger narratives feel more clarifying, more purposeful, more definitive. A humanitarian impulse grows into an uncompromising demand for unlimited admission; a cautious impulse grows into a sweeping story of existential threat. The second failure is insulation. Once a narrative reduces discomfort or stabilizes identity, the meaning-making drive protects it from challenge. A citizen who sees openness as the core of their moral identity treats any acknowledgment of limits as betrayal; one who sees cultural stability as essential treats any refugee as a symbolic danger. Escalation inflates meaning beyond proportion; insulation petrifies it beyond revision. In both cases, the refugee—the actual person—disappears beneath the narrative.
A separate set of distortions emerges when the meaning-making drive serves as a defense against anomie. Sometimes the mind copes with uncertainty by instrumentalizing others, using them as props to stabilize the self. Refugees become exemplars of national virtue or of national decline, depending on what story quiets the citizen’s anxiety. At other times, the drive collapses entirely into nihilistic drift: if meaning cannot be stabilized, it is abandoned. In this mode, nothing seems to matter; duties are dismissed as futile; consequences as unknowable; moral engagement as pointless. This resignation is not ethically neutral. It withholds care precisely when care is needed and excuses refusal as lucidity. These failures—escalation, insulation, instrumentalization, and nihilistic drift—share a common origin: an intolerance for uncertainty. Without some capacity to endure ambiguity, meaning-making will either harden into dogma or dissolve into defeat.
Ethical frameworks exist, in part, to regulate these distortions. Deontological constraints act as fixed boundaries that the meaning-making drive cannot legitimately cross. Whatever narrative a citizen constructs about refugees, it cannot justify cruelty, arbitrary exclusion, or the return of vulnerable people to mortal danger. Duties do not intensify with fear or expand with idealism. They stand as limits beyond which meaning-making loses its moral claim. Consequentialist reasoning provides a different form of discipline by requiring the meaning-making drive to submit its preferred narratives to evidence. Predictions about security, integration, and public resources cannot be accepted merely because they support an emotionally satisfying meaning. Consequentialism disrupts insulation by insisting that narratives remain corrigible. Yet it, too, is vulnerable when meaning-making supplies the models rather than responds to them. A fearful narrative can dress itself in data; a romantic one can do the same. For consequentialism to function ethically, it must operate within the boundaries set by deontology and under virtues that discourage overconfidence.
Virtue governs the moral posture from which one interprets both duties and consequences. In the refugee context, compassion prevents dehumanization; practical wisdom prevents symbolic overreach; humility prevents meaning-making from mistaking its own perspective for self-evident truth; courage prevents it from collapsing into fear or nihilism. Virtue is what makes it possible to live with the ethically optimal amount of anomie—the portion of uncertainty that keeps meaning-making from hardening into violence or evaporating into indifference. Virtue thickens the person against the temptation to resolve tension prematurely.
Complexity magnifies every one of these dangers. Refugee movements arise from opaque geopolitical causes, produce uncertain social and economic outcomes, and provoke unpredictable reactions. In such conditions, meaning-making becomes more necessary and less trustworthy. The clearer a narrative feels in a complex situation, the more likely it is a product of the drive’s need for orientation rather than the world’s actual structure. Escalation becomes easier because partial information can be framed as decisive. Insulation becomes easier because counter-evidence is ambiguous enough to dismiss. Instrumentalization becomes easier because the mind longs for a stable story in an unstable world. Nihilistic drift becomes easier because real control is limited, and narrative coherence feels beyond reach.
This is why deontological limits, consequentialist feedback, and virtuous posture become more—not less—important as complexity rises. They prevent the meaning-making drive from mistaking its own simplifications for ethical insight. They ensure that meaning remains answerable to moral reality rather than replacing it. Deontology halts the drive at the point where harm becomes narratively tempting. Consequentialism forces the drive to engage with consequences rather than fantasies. Virtue cultivates the emotional resilience required to tolerate uncertainty without fleeing into zealotry or despair.
We can now restate the guiding propositions with their full force. Sufficiently uncompromising meaning-making is unethical violence because it subordinates other people to the inward demand for significance. The ethically optimal amount of anomie is not zero because only a remainder of uncertainty can prevent meaning-making from converting its preferences into universal truths. Ethics is the discipline that keeps meaning-making from overrunning reality. Meaning, when disciplined, can illuminate moral life. Meaning-making, when uncompromised, will distort it. The task is not to deny the meaning-making drive but to contain it, so that its need for orientation does not eclipse the world to which we are answerable.
Summarize the protocol we used to produce this essay
We followed a clear, iterative co-authoring protocol that combined conceptual scaffolding, adversarial refinement, and stylistic calibration. In compact form, the protocol had these steps:
Establish a thesis–antithesis frame. We began with a conceptual tension (deontology vs consequentialism under complexity) and explored both sides without trying to resolve them.
Introduce controlled perturbations. You added constraints—e.g., allowing rules and goals to evolve—forcing the argument to adjust rather than collapse into familiar positions.
Add a mediating dimension. Virtue ethics was layered in not as a third theory but as a mode of embodiment. This created a three-channel regulatory model (rules, outcomes, posture).
Apply adversarial meaning-making analysis. We then introduced a second-order problem: meaning-making itself as an ethically distorting upstream force. This opened failure modes (escalation, insulation, instrumentalization, nihilistic drift).
Stress-test claims with a throughline example. A real-world scenario—citizens responding to refugees—was used to illustrate how each theoretical move behaves under pressure and complexity.
Reassess the balance of the argument. We revisited the thesis/antithesis in light of meaning-making distortions and complexity, updating the relative strengths and confidence.
Formulate leading propositions. You asked for aphoristic, Frankfurt-style claims; we generated candidates and converged on:
“Sufficiently uncompromising meaning-making is unethical violence.”
“The ethically optimal amount of anomie is not zero.”
Adopt a stylistic template. We used On Bullshit as a tonal reference and aligned the essay’s voice accordingly—plainspoken, morally direct, conceptually economical.
Draft section-by-section in analytical mode. Each section was written as rigorous discrete prose, with the meaning-making drive consistently distinguished from the meanings it produces.
Merge and smooth conceptual architecture. You requested continuous prose with minimal headings and no lists; we collapsed the scaffolding into a single argumentative flow.
Finalize as a continuous essay. The final product presents the reasoning without visible seams: the propositions, the refugee example, the failure modes, the ethical frameworks, and the synthesis appear as one coherent movement.
"Ludwig Minelli, who became a leader of the death-with-dignity movement as the founder of Dignitas, a Swiss organization with more than 10,000 members that provides and advocates for access to assisted suicide, died Saturday, ending his life through the process he helped promote. He was 92 and would have celebrated his 93rd birthday on Friday.
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"Mr. Minelli, a lawyer specializing in human rights, was the general secretary of Dignitas, which since 1998 has helped thousands of people from around the world, including from countries where assisted suicide is illegal, to die.
...
"Mr. Minelli and his group claimed responsibility for major milestones in the field of assisted death. In 2011 the European Court of Human Rights confirmed the right and freedom of a competent individual to decide on the manner and the time of their own end of life. In 2022, the German Federal Constitutional Court declared a law that made providing professional assistance in suicide impossible in Germany was unconstitutional. The same year, Austria also revoked a blanket prohibition on assisted suicide.
"In recent years, Australia, Canada and New Zealand have shifted their stance on assisted dying.
"Dignitas has participated in nearly 4,200 accompanied suicides since Mr. Minelli founded the group in 1998, the group reported in 2024. More than a third of those people lived in Germany, and there were over 600 people each from France and Britain. The group says it has more than 10,000 members. "
Many incarcerated women and trans people are forced to choose between maintaining their dignity and health — or facing penalties.
The tampons were stacked and bound together with a rubber band. The incarcerated people at the Patrick O’Daniel Unit — a women’s prison in Central Texas — referred to these bundles as “dynamite sticks.”
Behind bars, these household items could be a liability. People on their periods might beg their peers for tampons or even take them. Correctional officers might write someone up for having more than the 12 tampons permitted per month, which was the practice until the state removed those limits in 2019. The punishments for those violations could range from losing phone or visitation privileges, to fines to solitary confinement.
Jennifer Toon would hide her dynamite sticks behind the bookshelves of the prison library where she worked. “I saw girls get written up because they’re hoarding. Like, they’re stashing in their cubicle,” said Toon, who was incarcerated twice over two decades and last released in 2018.
But the prison commissary at that time could barely keep extra tampons in stock, she said — and that was assuming people had the money to afford them. To guard against this low supply, Toon and others at the prison would collect a personal stash and tuck them into nooks and crannies so they wouldn’t face consequences. Any infractions on their record could affect something as significant as their eligibility for parole.
“Who wants to get a major case over having extra tampons? And that sounds really ridiculous to people on the outside, but I mean, that would happen,” said Toon, who is now the executive director of Lioness Justice Impacted Women’s Alliance, an advocacy nonprofit in Austin, Texas.
The system was a vicious cycle, and in many cases it felt like a trap. Across the country, incarcerated women, trans and nonbinary people are punished for having periods, according to a new analysis published by the Prison Policy Initiative (PPI), in partnership with researcher Miriam Vishniac, the founder and director of the Prison Flow Project, a database focused on access to menstrual products in U.S. prisons.
While prison disciplinary policies do not cite periods directly, the PPI report identified at least six types of prison policies used to punish menstruating people: These include rules concerning damage of prison property, personal hygiene requirements, contraband restrictions, “feigning” illness and being absent from an assigned location.
For example, in Texas, where Toon was incarcerated, “any item possessed in excess of the amounts authorized,” could be considered contraband and punished as a “level 2” offense, which is the second most severe offense category in the state’s disciplinary rulebook. This can result in a loss of good conduct credits that go toward eligibility for parole, educational or work opportunities and other benefits.
Stories from people inside underscore a larger culture of control and dehumanization that incarcerated people endure, Toon and Vishniac said. It also reflects how little attention is given to the health needs of women and trans people in the criminal legal system. Prisons and jails are largely designed with cisgender men in mind, given that they make up about 90 percent of the country’s incarcerated population.
Formerly incarcerated people like Toon have reported male correctional staff and supervisors being oblivious to how menstruation works. They don’t appear to understand, for example, why women might go through more toilet paper than incarcerated cisgender men, or that the quality among different menstrual products varies.
“I knew I needed the tampons because the pads that we were issued were just terrible,” Toon said. “They’re going to fall apart in your panties.”
People using standard store-bought products outside of prison will typically go through three to six tampons or menstrual pads each day during a period, which can last for seven days. But the menstrual pads provided in prisons were “not much more useful than a panty liner,” said Stacy Burnett, 50, who was incarcerated for three stretches of time in New York before her release in 2019. During Burnett’s time inside, each person received two packs of 12 pads as well as about 8 tampons per month. The tampons were better for flow control, Burnett said, but could only handle lighter flow days and would still require using a pad as a backup.
“The quality of products provided or available for purchase is usually extremely poor — so poor that they do not fulfill their intended function,” said Vishniac, who completed her dissertation at the University of Edinburgh on the topic. “People have to use six pads at a time to prevent leakage, but they have strict limits on how many they are allowed.”
As a result of the limited access to period products and the poor quality, menstruating people have several options:
Bleed freely through their uniforms — and risk being written up for poor hygiene or damaging prison property
Hoard and hide as many tampons as they could find (or purchase from the commissary) — and risk being written up for contraband
Barter and trade tampons with other incarcerated people — and risk being written up for for improper exchange of property
Make their own tampons out of whatever they could get their hands on: toilet paper, dirty rags, fabric torn from a t-shirt or filling from their mattresses — and risk both an infection and being written up for misuse of prison property
Use their tampons and pads for multiple days — and risk an infection like Toxic Shock Syndrome. Many guidelines recommend that menstrual products are changed every 4 to 6 hours.
Or, they could “beg like dogs” for more period products, Vishniac said. “It was never as simple as asking for a product and getting it, because employees are trained to question every request incarcerated people make,” she said.
Trans and gender-nonconforming people who menstruate often faced added scrutiny when requesting tampons, and were mocked or questioned for needing them. (Emily Scherer for The 19th)
For Nathan Osborne, asking prison staff for period products opened the door to being mocked and degraded. Osborne, a 65-year-old transgender man, first became incarcerated in California in 1981 and was released from custody three months ago. He had a complicated relationship with menstruating as a man and often felt shame.
It didn’t help that when he requested menstrual products, “You would get the look; you would get, ‘Oh, men don’t have periods, why do you need a tampon?” Osborne said. That humiliation took a toll, so he started making his own tampons by tightly wadding up tissue paper and inserting it inside himself. Plenty of others did this, he said, but one day he was caught during a strip search.
“[The wad of paper] stuck out a little bit. I didn’t have it all the way in,” he said. “So they took me and had me strapped down and had the doctor go up in me and pull it out, because they were trying to say that it was narcotics.”
Osborne said the doctor warned him that doing this again could cause an infection and sent him on his way. He felt violated by the experience, but he also left with a lingering question: What other choice did he have?
Oftentimes, the most damaging punishment behind bars isn’t being officially written up or losing privileges. It’s the demeaning comments from prison staff. Vishniac said all staff do not participate in this culture of shame, but the ones who do instill a sense of fear that ripples through women’s correctional units.
Like Osborne, Toon experienced strip searches while imprisoned before 2018. She remembers one day when she was scheduled to leave the prison to attend a conference for peer health educators, incarcerated women assigned to teach others in prison about sexual violence prevention, HIV/AIDS awareness and other health-related topics. Getting to attend the conference was “a treat,” Toon said. It was something she was looking forward to.
But in order to leave the prison, she had to be strip searched. Toon knew the routine: She and the other incarcerated women shuffled into the tiny room known as the “strip shack” near the back gate of the prison and began to undress. Typically this process can require the removal of clothing, underwear, as well as any pads or tampons. To avoid having to remove her tampon in front of 20 people, Toon said she learned a trick to clip the tampon string short enough so the staff could not tell. But this time, a woman staffer noticed the extra unwrapped tampon that fell out of Toon’s pocket.
“I know you have a tampon in there.” — “there” being Toon’s vagina.
“I want to see it,” Toon recalled the woman officer saying.
“You’re not going anywhere until I see it.”
“So here I am, in front of 20 women, I squat down and I had to get in it,” Toon recalled. “I had to reach all the way in there and get that little string and I pulled it out.”
Droplets of blood fell to the floor as Toon pulled out her second-day tampon. The woman officer “looked at me with so much disgust,” Toon said. Toon looked over at her friend, Janet, who had tears running down her face.
Some cities and states are trying to make a shift in this culture. In response to questions from The 19th, a spokeswoman with the Texas Department of Criminal Justice said the culture Toon described “would be inaccurate to the state of TDCJ today.” In 2019, the department started providing unlimited access to menstrual products, according to the TDCJ spokeswoman. The department also “completed a large educational campaign,” concerning menstrual health care in women’s facilities, she said, and hired a consultant to work with the agency to improve female services and programming.
New York, Maryland, Alabama and Colorado have passed legislation requiring that people in state prisons receive menstrual products for free, though implementation and enforcement have been inconsistent. At least 14 states have passed a Dignity of Incarcerated Women Act aimed at improving certain conditions, including the quality and accessibility of period products.
But Vishniac emphasized that a singular law is simply a Band-Aid that does not address the root of the larger prison culture.
“I think some of the bigger changes that are really necessary — the oversight, the accountability, the transparency — those require us to grapple a bit more with a system that we have a really hard time questioning,” Vishniac said. “If we really, truly want to make sure that nobody is bleeding on themselves or punished for bleeding on themselves, we have to also understand that this stigmatization, and mass incarceration and warehousing people is part of that.”
To let Americans buy smaller cars, Trump had to weaken fuel-efficiency standards. Does that sound crazy? Small cars, of course, have much higher fuel efficiency. Yet this is exactly how the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards work.
Photo Keith Hopper, https://www.iobt.org/temple-blog/210-small-lessons-from-a-kei-truck-by-keith-hopper
Since 2011, fuel-economy targets scale with a vehicle’s “footprint” (wheelbase × track width). Big vehicles get lenient targets; small vehicles face demanding ones. A microcar that gets 40 MPG might be judged against a target of 50-60 MPG, while a full-size truck doing 20 MPG can satisfy a 22 MPG requirement.. The small car is clearly more efficient, yet it fails the rule that the truck passes.
The policy was meant to be fair to producers of large vehicles, but it rewards bloat. Make a car bigger and compliance gets easier. Add crash standards built around heavier vehicles and it’s obvious why the US market produces crossovers and trucks while smaller and much less expensive city-cars, familiar in Europe and Asia, never show up. At a press conference rolling back CAFE standards, Trump noted he’d seen small “kei” cars on his Asia trip—”very small, really cute”—and directed the Transportation Secretary to clear regulatory barriers so they could be built and sold in America.
Trump’s rollback—cutting the projected 2031 fleet average from roughly 50.4 MPG to 34.5 MPG—relaxes the math enough that microcars could comply again. Only Kafka would appreciate a fuel-economy system that makes small fuel-efficient cars hard to sell and giant trucks easy. Yet the looser rules remove a barrier to greener vehicles while also handing a windfall to big truck makers. A little less Kafka, a little more Tullock.
In the 2010s, a bunch of right-wing types suddenly became big fans of Martin Luther King Jr.’s views on race. If you saw someone on Twitter quote MLK’s nostrum that people should “not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character”, it was almost certainly someone on the right — quite a change from the type of person who probably would have cited King’s words half a century earlier. This is from an Associated Press story back in 2013:
King’s quote has become a staple of conservative belief that “judged by the color of their skin” includes things such as unique appeals to certain voter groups, reserving government contracts for Hispanic-owned businesses, seeking more non-white corporate executives, or admitting black students to college with lower test scores.
Many progressives railed against the idea of a colorblind society, arguing that statistical disparities between racial groups — income gaps, wealth gaps, incarceration gaps, and so on — couldn’t be remedied without writing race into official policy and becoming much more race-conscious in our daily lives.
In that kind of environment, it’s understandable that lots of people on the right would turn to individualist principles like the ones espoused by MLK in his famous speech. Asking to be judged by the content of your character is a reasonable defense against people who are trying to judge you based on your membership in a racial group.
[I]t would be a shame if this single act of betrayal became the excuse for deporting all Afghan refugees in the U.S…Tens of thousands are building new lives here in peace and are contributing to their communities. They shouldn’t be blamed for the violent act of one man.
Stephen Miller, Trump’s powerful Homeland Security Advisor, responded with a dismissal of individualism and an indictment of Afghans as a group:
This is the great lie of mass migration. You are not just importing individuals. You are importing societies. No magic transformation occurs when failed states cross borders. At scale, migrants and their descendants recreate the conditions, and terrors, of their broken homelands.
Federal prosecutors charged dozens of people with felonies, accusing them of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from a government program meant to keep children fed during the Covid-19 pandemic…At first, many in the state saw the case as a one-off abuse…But…Over the last five years, law enforcement officials say, fraud took root in pockets of Minnesota’s Somali diaspora as scores of individuals made small fortunes by setting up companies that billed state agencies for millions of dollars’ worth of social services that were never provided…Federal prosecutors say…more than $1 billion in taxpayers’ money has been stolen[.]
In the wake of those revelations, Trump condemned Somalis as a group:
Here are Trump’s exact words:
I don’t want em in our country. Their country’s no good for a reason. Their country stinks…I could say that about other countries too…We don’t want em…We have to rebuild our country. You know, our country’s at a tipping point. We could go bad…We’re going to go the wrong way if we keep taking garbage into our country. Ilhan Omar is garbage. Her friends are garbage…And from where they came from, they got nothing…When they come from Hell, and they complain, and do nothing but bitch, we don’t want em in our country. Let em go back to where they came from, and fix it.
Here you see the very same idea that Stephen Miller expressed. Trump and Miller both judge people by their ethnic group, and they judge those ethnic groups by the condition of their ancestral country. Somalia is a bad place, therefore Somalis are bad, therefore if you’re a Somali you’re bad and you shouldn’t be allowed into America. Afghanistan is a bad place, therefore Afghans are bad, therefore if you’re an Afghan you’re bad and you shouldn’t be allowed into America.
In fact, this idea was very popular a century ago, when America enacted harsh restrictions on immigration. Restrictionists argued that immigrants from South and East Europe were undesirable, because South and East Europe were relatively underdeveloped places. For example, here’s what Francis Walker, the president of MIT and a staunch opponent of immigration, wrote in The Atlantic in 1896:
Only a short time ago, the immigrants from southern Italy, Hungary, Austria, and Russia together made up hardly more than one per cent of our immigration. To-day the proportion has risen to something like forty per cent…The entrance into our political, social, and industrial life of such vast masses of peasantry, degraded below our utmost conceptions, is a matter which no intelligent patriot can look upon without the gravest apprehension and alarm. These people have no history behind them which is of a nature to give encouragement…They are beaten men from beaten races; representing the worst failures in the struggle for existence…They have none of the ideas and aptitudes which fit men to take up readily and easily the problem of self-care and self-government. [emphasis mine]
This is a form of racial collectivism. It’s judging people by ethnic, racial, and national groups instead of as individuals. In his landmark 1955 book Strangers in the Land, which chronicles the anti-immigration movement of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, historian John Higham labeled this attitude “racism”. Today, of course, we can’t use that word, since it has been repurposed to mean so many other things. But the word feels like a perfect fit — it’s an ideology (an “ism”) that holds that people are to be judged according to the collective accomplishments of their race.
When I see people on the right spouting this sort of rhetoric, I think: What happened to MLK? What happened to judging people based on the content of their character? What happened to the colorblind society? What happened between 2018 and now that makes collective judgment of racial groups suddenly ok?
The answer, of course, is “The right got the upper hand in American politics.” It turns out that individualism is a bit like free speech — a principle that lots of people tend to support when their tribe is losing, only to abandon it as soon as they’re back on top. A lot of people really do believe in individualism, of course, especially in America. But a lot of others just use it as a cynical shield when they’re on the defensive. And we’re finding out that most of the MAGA movement was always the latter type.
MAGA’s overriding goal is immigration restriction. They care about this much more than any other policy issue — more than inflation, more than trade, more than crime, more than anything. And the reason they want immigration restriction, I believe, is because they think that Somalis and Afghans and Haitians and so on are going to make America more like those countries. When Trump and Miller talk about this, I think they’re being completely honest. And after Trump is gone, I think this idea will be at the core of the new right-wing ideology that will sustain the MAGA movement. Racial collectivism is absolutely at the core of their worldview.
But MAGA has a big problem: While that worldview has some appeal to Americans, overall they aren’t on board. Every poll we have shows pro-immigration sentiment on the rise again, after a dip during the Biden years:
A lot of Americans are also in favor of individualism — that is, of treating people based on their individual traits rather than what group they belong to. Americans of most races supported the recent Supreme Court decision banning racial preferences in university admissions; even black Americans were about evenly split. And while Americans disagree about lots of racial issues, they tend to overwhelmingly say they support things like equal opportunity regardless of race.
And although there are differences in American attitudes toward immigrants from different regions of the world, the differences aren’t huge, and they don’t perfectly line up with how developed the regions are. For example, here’s a 2015 poll by Pew, finding that immigration from Africa is viewed more favorably than immigration from the much more developed regions of Latin America and the Middle East:
So although some Americans are probably evaluating immigrants based on their racial group and on the condition of their source country, like Trump and Miller are, Americans in general probably don’t think this way. They get mad at illegal immigration, and at the disorderly quasi-legal immigration that Biden tolerated — but illegal entry is an individual action, not a group trait.
Which makes sense. The U.S. immigration system is highly selective; Lazear (2017) shows that selectivity accounts for a very large fraction of the average educational attainment of different immigrant groups in America.
As Matt Yglesias points out, nowhere is this more evident than with Indian immigrants. The country of India is still poor; despite solid recent growth, its GDP per capita is lower than that of El Salvador or Guatemala. Infrastructure has improved a lot but is still subpar, and the country has pockets of startling poverty. By the racial-collectivist logic of Miller and Trump, or of the restrictionists of a century ago, Indian immigrants should be turning America into a third-world country.
Nor has Indian immigration turned anywhere in America into a version of India. Fremont, California is probably the city over 100,000 population with the greatest percentage of Indians — about 29%. And yet Fremont is one of the cleanest, nicest, richest, safest towns in the whole country, with a murder rate so low that many European countries would envy it, and arguably the best public schools in the country. A recent survey identified Fremont as the happiest city in America.
A big part of this, of course, is because immigration from India is so selective. India is the world’s most populous country; it’s not too hard to grab a few million smart people from a country that big. But this isn’t the only reason. American institutions are also important.
As another example, take El Paso. The overwhelming majority of people in El Paso are of Mexican descent. Mexican immigration is among the least selective, because Mexico is so close to America and there was so much illegal immigration in the past. And yet despite being filled with ethnic Mexicans, El Paso looks absolutely nothing like Juarez, the Mexican city that sits right next to it on the opposite side of the border. El Paso’s murder rate is 3.8, very low for an American city, while Juarez is one of the most violent, chaotic cities on planet Earth.
Mexicans didn’t turn El Paso into Mexico, and the reason is American institutions. America’s economy offers El Paso’s residents the chance to get ahead without joining drug gangs. American culture is a more positive-sum, less violent culture than Mexico’s. And the U.S. Military has a big presence in El Paso, because Fort Bliss is there. Even without selectivity, institutions matter a lot.
So Stephen Miller is just flat-out wrong. Immigrants do not recreate the conditions of their homelands in America. Yes, there is some amount of carryover, including some negative influences like the old Sicilian mafia, or modern gangs like MS-13. But the differences between American immigrant populations and their source countries far outweigh the similarities.
In order for MAGA to win, they need to convince America otherwise — they need to persuade you, the American citizen, that the fiction that undergirds their ideology is actually true. To this end, they need to get you to judge people in terms of their group, rather than as individuals. So they keep looking around for a group they think they can convince you to fear, to disdain, and ultimately to hate.
Remember last year, during the campaign season, when Trump and JD Vance declared that Haitian immigrants were eating people’s pets in Springfield, Ohio?
It was all B.S., of course. News crews descended on Springfield, but not even the most right-wing reporters could find a credible report of a single pet being eaten. JD Vance awkwardly begged the internet to “keep the cat memes flowing”, and never apologized for smearing a whole group of people, but at some point everyone realized it was a hoax.
That’s why you didn’t hear anything about cat-eating Haitian-Ohioans before the campaign season of 2024. And that’s why you haven’t heard anything about it since then. It wasn’t real; you were being played.
Now they’re trying again, with the Somalis of Minnesota. This time, they probably have a better shot at success. For one thing, Somalis in America are much poorer than their Haitian-American counterparts — Haitians in the U.S. have slightly below average income and average education levels, they commit few crimes, and they’re not prominent in politics. They’re basically just quiet middle-class people living pretty normal American lives.
Somalis, on the other hand, are an extremely poor group, with very high poverty rates and much lower income than Haitians, or immigrants in general; this is due to the fact that most of them are refugees or descendants of refugees, which are the least selected type of immigrants. Somalis are Muslim, unlike Haitians, which makes them both visually distinct (because of the hijab) and mentally associated with civilizational conflict. They’re not known for violence, but now they’re associated with Minnesota’s massive organized welfare fraud.
And unlike the Haitians of Ohio, the Somalis of Minnesota are prominent and powerful in local politics. They managed to do a sort of takeover of the Minneapolis Democratic Party, nominating one of their own, Omar Fateh, as the Democratic candidate over incumbent mayor Jacob Frey. Frey managed to beat Fateh in the general election, but only by appealing to a rival Somali clan and making flamboyant appeals to the Somali community.
This is hardly unprecedented in American politics — Irish immigrants built political machines that dominated the politics of many American cities in the 19th century. Given many decades, it’s likely that Somalis will assimilate, the same way the Irish did, and turn the organizational skills that allowed them to swindle the state of Minnesota and take over the Minneapolis Democrats to some more constructive use, like building drone factories (or whatever humans are doing 80 years from now).
But “many decades” is a very long time for Americans to wait in order not to worry about culture clash. And Americans aren’t used to urban ethnic machine politics these days,1 and the notion of an iconic American city being at the mercy of clan rivalries from one of the world’s poorest and most violent nations will naturally lend force to Trump’s argument that Somalis are trying to make Minnesota into another Somalia.
If Trump and MAGA succeed in getting a critical mass of regular Americans to reject Somalis categorically, as a racial group, then they win a crucial victory — not over the Somalis, who pose them no actual threat, but in terms of changing the terms of the discourse around race and immigration in America.
Once MAGA can convince you that “Are the Somalis bad?” is a legitimate question to ask, they then pretty much automatically get to ask the same question about every other group in America. They get to ask “Are Afghans bad?”, and “Are Haitians bad?”. They’ll get to ask “Are Jews bad?”, “Are Indians bad?”, and “Are Chinese people bad?”. Eventually they might even get around to asking “Are Italians bad?”, and so on. They will push as far as they can.
Even if those questions get answered in the affirmative — even if Italians and Indians and Haitians can all successfully defend their right to be in America by appealing to the court of MAGA opinion — the mere fact that they had to defend themselves as racial groups, instead of as individuals, will redefine what America is all about. It will move America toward being an estate society — a society where groups are accorded rights and privileges instead of individuals.
In the 20th century, American liberals successfully overcame all of the people who wanted to make the country a racial estate society — Jim Crow was outlawed, immigration laws were made (more or less) race-neutral, and so on. Liberals accomplished this by appealing to Americans’ deep-seated value of individualism — of the idea that people shouldn’t be judged by the group they were born into. That idea, captured most eloquently in MLK’s famous speech but repeated ad infinitum by leaders, writers, and activists, ultimately carried the day and made America the liberal nation I grew up in.
What I fear is that by embracing identity politics in the 2010s, progressives have thrown away liberals’ ultimate weapon. Appeals to individualism carry much less moral force when the people making those appeals just spent the last decade decrying colorblindness as a tool of systemic racism (or embracing people who made that claim).
This is not to say that rightists’ push to turn America into a balkanized racial hierarchy is progressives’ fault — it isn’t. Rightists are always trying to do this sort of thing; it’s not a reaction to anything progressives did. But there’s a reason this sort of racial collectivism was defeated and suppressed for a hundred years, and there’s a reason it’s breaking through now when it couldn’t before.
To be honest, they weren’t very relaxed about it in the 19th century either; anti-Irish sentiment resulted in vicious pogroms, gang wars, and whole newspapers devoted to spreading vicious anti-Irish rumors.
In recent months, it has begun dawning on US lawmakers that, absent significant intervention, China will land humans on the Moon before the United States can return there with the Artemis Program.
So far, legislators have yet to take meaningful action on this—a $10 billion infusion into NASA’s budget this summer essentially provided zero funding for efforts needed to land humans on the Moon this decade. But now a subcommittee of the House Committee on Space, Science, and Technology has begun reviewing the space agency’s policy, expressing concerns about Chinese competition in civil spaceflight.
During a hearing on Thursday in Washington, DC, the subcommittee members asked a panel of experts how NASA could maintain its global leadership in space over China in general, and more specifically, how to improve the Artemis Program to reach the Moon more quickly.
HOUSTON, TX – December 3, 2025 – For more than three decades, Celestis, Inc. has transformed remembrance into exploration, sending the names, ashes, and DNA of pioneers and visionaries into […]
In this episode, former NASA commercial space division chief Phil McAlister sits down with host David Ariosto for a wide-ranging conversation about the future of human spaceflight, NASA’s internal culture, and the explosive growth of the commercial space sector.
Roscosmos has replaced a cosmonaut assigned to the next Crew Dragon mission to the International Space Station for reasons neither it nor NASA will disclose.
U.S. Space Command’s push for “dynamic space operations” — the ability to maneuver in orbit without worrying about running dry — demands logistics the military has never had.
This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political pressure, I develop a narrative identification strategy based on President Nixon’s pressure on Fed Chair Burns. I exploit this narrative through restrictions on a structural vector autoregression that includes the President-Fed interaction data. I find that political pressure to ease monetary policy (i) increases the price level strongly and persistently, (ii) does not lead to positive effects on real economic activity, (iii) contributed to inflationary episodes outside of the Nixon era, and (iv) transmits differently from a typical monetary policy easing, by having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon, for six months, raises the price level by about 7% over the following decade.
That is not entirely a positive omen for the current day.
SpaceX and Amazon stand to get about 4% of the nearly $20 billion that states have proposed for rural broadband buildouts, representing roughly 21% of the locations under the federal BEAD program.
Welcome, Jared Isaacman. We who love NASA, or at least the idea of NASA, wish you the very best in taking leadership of the great American space agency. You seem […]
To all of you readers who submitted noxious nominations for the 17th annual Golden Duke awards, we thank you for your service. It’s not easy to sift back through the grime that’s caked atop the first year of President Trump’s second term to elevate and celebrate the scandals and the creeps who remind us of the real reason for the season (honoring depravity).
Reading through your submissions was an unpleasant stroll down memory lane ❤️. How could I have forgotten about Rep. Nancy Mace’s (R-SC) manic meltdown at the Charleston Airport over a vehicle mixup? Or Trump ally and alleged sex pest Alan Dershowitz’s legal threats against a pierogi purveyor at the West Tisbury Farmers’ Market? Or Education Department (RIP) Secretary Linda McMahon referring to AI as A1? Amid such horrors as Trump’s mass deportation mission and invasions of U.S. cities, it was a marquee year for buffoonery, too.
Because of this, Allegra Kirkland and I created some new categories to match this unprecedented era of acting oafishly. You’ll notice, we kept President Trump and Stephen Miller (who one reader called “Nosferatu reincarnated”) off the list of nominees this year because they’re evil and and responsible for more scandals (and abuses of human rights) than we could possibly list. They’d win each category by a landslide and where’s the fun in that?
So, here’s our attempt to make it up to you with some new nonsense. In addition to some perennial Golden Duke categories, we also ask you to select winners this year in the following: Meritorious Achievement in Grifting, Best Supporting Hatchet Man, Biggest Journalism Fail and Most Egregious Ring-Kissing.
You’ll find the nominees and the voting forms below. Reminder: If you submitted a nomination and we published it here, we’ll send you an email soon. Happy Duking and may the sickest sleazebag win!
“Let your haters be your waiters when you sit down at the table of success.”
Eric Adams
Best Scandal — General Interest
Trump’s $300 Million White House Ballroom
Kash Patel flying his girlfriend to sporting events is tempting but I must go for the raw indulgence of the gold plated ballroom funded by shady crypto guys for most on the nose.
— TPM reader Riley
Kristi Noem’s Ghoulish Photo Ops
ICE Barbie Kristi Noem MUST be on the list for 2025. Her cosplay as a Mar-a-Lago smiling security professional as ICE tramples on the Bill of Rights probably deserves a win, not just a mention.
— TPM reader “TK”
Podcaster Dan Bongino’s Conspiracy Theory Fail
For being the most dog-who-caught-the-car man in recent memory, building a career promoting conspiracy theories he then sheepishly had to walk back as deputy FBI director, a role to which he was reportedly so ill-suited, the Trump administration had to appoint a *second* deputy FBI director.
— TPM Executive Editor John Light
Eric Adams’ Entire Mayoral Administration
Eric Adams’ lone term as New York City mayor was so weird and wild that it defies normal Duke categorization. After running for office while allegedly actually living in New Jersey, Adams declared himself the “swag” mayor as he proceeded to spend an inordinate amount of time in nightclubs and enriched various cronies.
Adams and his inner circle were soon hit with multiple indictments. In Adams’ case, he was accused of trading political favors to Turkish officials for airline upgrades and vacations to Istanbul. As if all that wasn’t nuts enough, the case against the mayor ended in a bizarre saga where he received a pardon from Trump and mounted an increasingly quixotic re-election bid while his new pals from the White House tried to block Adams’ progressive successor by reportedly tempting the mayor with a job in Saudi Arabia.
Along with all of this stunning corruption, Adams left us with some incredible catchphrases including his signature “let your haters be your waiters when you sit down at the table of success.” While pandering before various ethnic audiences, he declared New York “the Islamabad,” “the Istanbul,” and “the Zagreb of America,” among others. And, in his final months, the mayor brought us a sex scandal complete with a bizarre self-published book and an exit interview where he boasted about “the firmness of my body.” Wait on, haters.
— TPM Reporter Hunter Walker
Vote now!
Meritorious Achievement in Grifting
Winnie Greco Let the Chips Fall Where They May
Red string and corkboard are required to keep straight all the ancillary characters in Eric Adams’ corrupt final months, but I raise a Pringle to this Adams confidant (formerly forced to resign as his liaison after being targeted by multiple investigations) for handing a local reporter $300 stuffed in a bag of Herr’s Sour Cream & Onion ripple potato chips. The bungled attempt to bribe the media missed the mark, but her flavor preferences deserve applause.
— TPM Reporter Kate Riga
Relaxium’s Very Own Mike Huckabee
The United States Ambassador to the nation of Israel continuing to hawk a quack sleep aid on television both as an embarrassment to our country and a perfect example of the shamelessness of this administration (Mike Huckabee and Relaxium Sleep in case, for some reason, you never watch TV!).
— TPM reader Lance
Tom ‘Cashbag’ Homan
His simple-yet-brazen approach — old school bag and only 50k *in cash* — was a reminder of days gone by.
— TPM reader Eric
The Trump Family’s Shady Memecoin
Donald Trump is always waving away any idea of conflict of interest regarding his power as president to unethically enrich himself by saying the Trump Organization is in a trust run by his sons. But that trust is literally revocable. And a big chunk of the $800 million his sons raked in this year for the family business conglomerate has 1) come from the sale of memecoins actually called $TRUMP to 2) foreign investors, several of whom told Reuters they were hoping to curry favor with the president, as 3) Trump has openly sought to deregulate crypto at hyperspeed. It’s just a ridiculous out-in-the-open grift.
— TPM Reporter Layla A. Jones
Vote now!
Best Supporting Hatchet Man
Bill Pulte, Housing Henchman
No one had on their bingo card that a primary tool for Trump’s retribution against his biggest foes would be bogus claims of mortgage fraud ginned up by the 37-year-old scion of a major homebuilding family ensconced as the head honcho simultaneously at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, where he’s free to rifle through the personal mortgage records of prominent Democrats. For his relentless creativity and craven devotion to MAGA, Pulte has been rewarded with extraordinary access to President Trump, whom he dazzles with helpful visual aids like poster boards.
— TPM Editor-at-Large David Kurtz
DOJ Weaponization Czar Ed Martin
No Golden Duke nominee has ever worn as many different hats in one year as Ed Martin: interim U.S. attorney, associate deputy attorney general, U.S. pardon attorney, special attorney for mortgage fraud, and director of the DOJ Weaponization Working Group — the last four of which he continues to hold simultaneously. Martin’s lack of any prior experience as a prosecutor has made him the blunt tip of Trump’s retribution spear. Whether he was parading outside Letitia James’ home in a trench coat looking more like a flasher than Columbo or securing pardons for the 2020 Big Lie conspirators or obliterating the wall between the Justice Department and the White House, Martin’s sheer obliviousness combined with an overeagerness to please has made him an exceptional underminer of the rule of law.
— TPM Editor-at-Large David Kurtz
Perplexed Prosecutor Lindsey Halligan
I think any Golden Duke award would be amiss without Lindsay Halligan as the hapless U.S. Attorney who tried to prosecute James Comey and Letitia James without being duly installed in the office, and then had to admit to the judge in open court that she hadn’t actually presented the indictment to the grand jury before bullying the foreman to sign it.
— TPM reader
Trumponomics Enabler Scott Bessent
Wall Street expected Bessent to be a “tariff skeptic” treasury secretary who could reign in Trump’s craziness. Bessent signaled as much by framing Trump’s pre-inauguration tariffs threats as strategic political posturing designed to intimidate U.S. trading partners. Well, the tariffs were real, they upset the market, and Bessent was powerless to stop them, so he’s spent the year contorting himself to justify them. Plus, he accomplished not one pillar of his so-called 3-3-3 ideology — to reach 3% GDP growth, have a deficit that accounts for just 3% of the U.S. budget, and to increase domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day.
—TPM Reporter Layla A. Jones
Vote now!
“I am a river. You are my canyon. …”
RFK Jr.
Biggest Journalism Fail
SignalGate
Admit it. With all the talk of Trump accusing Democrats of sedition and the foundational cracks of the USA being laid bare for all to see, you already forget that the United States government was using Signal to discuss military strikes on Yemen. And that they invited the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic by mistake. And that he saved the logs. And the only guy who saw any repercussions was punished by… becoming the Ambassador to the United Nations. An early indication of how much the bar for competence had fallen from Trump I to Trump II — and that the bar can always get lower.
— TPM reader
Olivia Nuzzi Goes Hiking the Appalachian Trail
Olivia Nuzzi, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Mark Sanford. Do we really have to read the texts again?
— TPM reader
The New York Times vs. Zohran Mamdani
The New York Times was less than subtle about their antipathy towards Zohran Mamdani during the New York City mayoral race. A year after announcing an end to endorsements in local races, the editorial board ran a bizarre anti-endorsement of Mamdani, calling his progressive campaign platform “uniquely unsuited to the city’s challenges” while essentially endorsing disgraced ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The paper subsequently published an “investigation” into the candidate’s (unsuccessful) application to Columbia University that showed that Mamdani, who grew up in Uganda and whose family is of Indian origin, checked both Asian and African American on the form. As it turned out, the piece relied on documents hacked by a self-proclaimed white nationalist. We love objective journalism!
—TPM Deputy Editor Allegra Kirkland
Lindsey Halligan Fails to Go Off the Record
Halligan bravely created her own SignalGate-style scandal months after Hegseth, messaging legal reporter Anna Bower about her ongoing prosecution of New York Attorney General Letitia James. This bizarre breach of conduct happened just before her invalid appointment as the interim U.S. attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia got the administration’s half-baked retribution cases against Trump’s enemies (James and former FBI Director James Comey) dismissed.
— TPM Deputy Editor Nicole LaFond
Vote now!
Most Egregious Ring-Kissing
Mike Braun Bends the Knee
Indiana Gov. Mike Braun has repeatedly caved to the Trump administration’s redistricting pressure campaign, despite the lack of widespread Republican support for the effort in his state. Even after Trump went after Braun on Truth Social, and outright threatened him, Braun remained a devoted foot soldier, who pressured and threatened his own to bend the knee. Nothing seems to get between Braun and his fidelity to Trump’s midterms rigging plan that’s already losing steam.
—TPM Reporter Khaya Himmelman
Columbia Accepts Trump’s Terms of Engagement
For worst capitulation to nonsense and exhibiting grotesque pandering from an institution of higher learning, I nominate Columbia University. Institutions like Columbia (and law firms like Skadden Arps) failed us, miserably, and are part of the tragic shift from civic awareness and pride to oligarchism.
— TPM reader Elizabeth
Tim Cook and His Golden Idol
The Apple CEO has become convenient shorthand for elite/corporate weenery in Trump II, and he should always be remembered for not letting his immense power or wealth stop him from trying to win the king’s favor with a golden piece of bullshit.
— TPM Reporter Kate Riga
Bill Cassidy Believing Bullshit
Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, a doctor, for his haplessness, cowardice, and self-debasement that would be comical were the consequences not so grave (voting to install a vaccine denier as head of HHS). After flushing his reputation down the toilet and thoroughly debasing himself, Cassidy is likely to lose his seat next year. Let’s send him home with a Golden Duke for meritorious achievement in dignity-wraithing and reputational self-immolation.
Speaking at a town hall event hosted by MSNBC’s Chris Hayes and
Recode’s Kara Swisher, Cook said Facebook put profits above all
else when it allegedly allowed user data to be taken through
connected apps. [...]
When asked what he would do if he were in Zuckerberg’s position,
Cook replied: “What would I do? I wouldn’t be in this situation.”
“The truth is we could make a ton of money if we monetized our
customer, if our customer was our product,” Cook said. “We’ve
elected not to do that.”
“Privacy to us is a human right. It’s a civil liberty, and
something that is unique to America. This is like freedom of
speech and freedom of the press,” Cook said. “Privacy is right up
there with that for us.”
Perhaps Cook now needs to define “us”.
This was a rather memorable interview. Cook’s “What would I do? I wouldn’t be in this situation” is one of the stone-coldest lines he’s ever zinged at a rival company. (In public, that is.) That was just ice cold. Cook is a consummate diplomat. Most non-founder big company CEOs are. Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, Andy Jassy — none of them are known for throwing shade, let alone sharp elbows, at competitors. Cook has made an exception, multipletimes, when it comes to Facebook/Meta (and to a lesser degree, Google).
So it’s not just that Alan Dye jumped ship from Apple for the chief designer officer role at another company.1 It’s not just that he left for a rival company. It’s that he left Apple for Meta, of all companies. Given what Cook has said about Meta publicly, one can only imagine what he thinks about them privately. Apple executives tend to stay at Apple. The stability of its executive team is unparalleled. But Dye is a senior leader who not only left for a rival, but the one rival that Cook and the rest of Apple’s senior leadership team consider the most antithetical to Apple’s ideals.
It would have been surprising if Dye had jumped ship to Google or Microsoft. It would have been a little more surprising if he’d left for Amazon, if only because Amazon seemingly places no cultural value whatsoever on design, as Apple practices it. But maybe with Amazon it would have been seen as Andy Jassy deciding to get serious about design, and thus, in a way, less surprising after the fact. But leaving Apple for Meta, of all companies, feels shocking. How could someone who would even consider leaving Apple for Meta rise to a level of such prominence at Apple, including as one of the few public faces of the company?
So it’s not just that Alan Dye is a fraud of a UI designer and leader, and that Apple’s senior leadership had a blind spot to the ways Dye’s leadership was steering Apple’s interface design deeply astray. That’s problem enough, as I emphasized in my piece yesterday. It’s also that it’s now clear that Dye’s moral compass was not aligned with Apple’s either. Tim Cook and the rest — or at least most? — of Apple’s senior leadership apparently couldn’t see that, either.
I’d have thrown OpenAI in that list of companies where it would have been surprising, but not shocking, for Dye to leave Apple for. But that simply wasn’t possible given Jony Ive’s relationship with Sam Altman, LoveFrom’s collaboration with OpenAI with the io project, and Ive’s utter disdain for Dye’s talent, leadership, and personality. ↩︎
Straight/dumb quotation marks. Some default Instagram typeface. That period just hanging there, outside the closing quote. This is the post from the man who led Apple’s software design for a decade.
“Just figure out what’s next” for Alan Dye, after his supposedly wonderful accomplishments at Apple, is ... going to work for Meta? Jiminy H. Christ, that takes stones.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, last seen lighting her political career on fire in a run for New York governor, has declared war on House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). Why exactly I’m not entirely sure, other than she simply doesn’t like him. It sparked this deliciously petty but not inapt reply from what appears to have been one of Johnson’s top deputies.
Mr. Johnson declined to comment, as well. But a senior Republican congressional aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of prolonging an intraparty feud, said that after Mr. Johnson had provided Ms. Stefanik with office space and a budget for what the aide described as “a fake job and a fake title,” he would have expected her to be more gracious.
You’ll remember that Stefanik needed a fake job and title because she gave up her position to become President Trump’s UN Ambassador before he had to rescind the offer because he needed to find a drawer in which to stow former congressman-turned National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who more or less had to take the fall for the SignalGate scandal. The same New York Times article I quoted above notes that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) is now also threatening to resign from Congress. The Bulwark has an article up entitled The GOP Women Are Humiliating Mike Johnson: Move Aside, Freedom Caucus. There’s a new House Republican insurgency in town. Get Mike Johnson a beta-blocker, stat!, you might say, or a few beta offensive lineman. (Give it a minute, you’ll get it.) There’s an air over the House Republican caucus that is both petty and baroque, some amalgam of late Soviet nomenklatura and Real Housewives franchise, rippling with disputes that manage to be byzantine and nasty while also somehow very low energy, bounded and almost inaudible despite the high octane visuals. And yes, in case you’re wondering, in the case of the Housewives franchise I’m talking about Johnson and the boys, not the women representatives tossing him around like a sad sack effigy.
The Times article suggests that the female representatives’ beef with Johnson is that he is even more explicitly and consciously patriarchal than most members of the GOP caucus, even frequently saying on the record that women’s brains can’t process information as efficiently as men and that they’re great cooks. Because of this, under his leadership, women in the caucus have been shut out of policy and strategy decisions. That seems highly plausible but also scarcely new. Who Mike Johnson is has been clear from Day One. The issue here is the unleashing of everything Trump’s iron grip has suppressed.
When a group is in danger it pulls together. But at a certain point the Titanic isn’t “in danger”; it’s sinking. And at that moment of crystallization one person looks at another and says, ‘I never liked you, motherfucker!’ and throws a punch. What else is there to do? You look at the person next to you and you either kiss them full on the mouth or punch them in the face. There’s no future and no consequences and no reason not to let it all hang out, get every suppressed urge out there. That is what is happening right now in the House GOP conference, though admittedly with more of the latter than the former — at least as far as we know.
This is the fallout of the November election and Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee, where the Democrat overperformed despite losing to her Republican opponent. GOP lawmakers seem to have accepted that their House majority is gone. So every restraint has disappeared, not against Donald Trump but against each other in the House.
I take tap dance evening classes at the College of San Mateo community college. A neat bonus of this is that I'm now officially a student of that college, which gives me access to their library... including the ability to send text messages to the librarians asking for help with research.
I recently wrote about Coutellerie Nontronnaise on my Niche Museums website, a historic knife manufactory in Nontron, France. They had a certificate on the wall claiming that they had previously held a Guinness World Record for the smallest folding knife, but I had been unable to track down any supporting evidence.
I posed this as a text message challenge to the librarians, and they tracked down the exact page from the 1989 "Le livre guinness des records" describing the record:
Le plus petit
Les établissements Nontronnaise ont réalisé un couteau de 10 mm de long, pour le Festival d’Aubigny, Vendée, qui s’est déroulé du 4 au 5 juillet 1987.
pytest 9.0.0 was released on November 8th 2025. I just got around to looking at the release notes and the biggest new feature is subtests, previously available as the separate pytest-subtests plugin.
The idea behind subtests is to allow a test to programatically create new subtest within itself at runtime.
My above example does the same thing using @pytest.mark.parametrize - but it relies on the list of settings being known at test collection time. This might not be possible for things that need to be introspected after the test has run some initial setup code.
Here's the above test ported to use subtests instead:
subtests is a new default pytest fixture - if you list that as a parameter to your test function you can use it in the body of the test.
Using with subtests.test(...) creates a new subtest. Here I'm doing that in a loop. The keyword arguments passed to subtests.test() are used to identify the subtest in the test report.
That's all it takes! Here's a commit that ported several of my parameterized tests to use subtests instead.
How subtests differ from parametrize
If you use @pytest.mark.parametrize pytest will behave as if every one of your parameter combinations is a separate test function. Running the old pytest tests/test_docs.py tests looked like this:
The last line shows how many subtests passed in addition to how many tests.
It looks to me like subtests run substantially faster than the eqpuivalent parameterized tests. I'm more interested in the fact that subtests can now be programatically generated at runtime based on test setup code.
Last Sunday Kevin Hassett — chair of the National Economic Council, effectively the Trump administration’s chief economist — was interviewed by Nancy Cordes for CBS’s Face the Nation. Most observers expect Hassett to be appointed as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Prediction markets give him a virtual lock:
So CBS was probably hoping that he would say something newsworthy. He didn’t.
But he did, in just a few sentences, make it clear that he is absolutely unqualified — intellectually and morally — to be Fed chair. And the fact that nobody took notice, that his ignorance and mendacity were accepted as par for the course, demonstrated just how far our standards for public service have been degraded.
Here’s the exchange that caught my eye:
NANCY CORDES: What’s your advice to holiday shoppers who don’t want to spend more this year than they did last year, or can’t afford to spend more?
HASSETT: Right. Well, as you know, it depends on what you’re looking at. Like egg prices are down. Gasoline prices drop below $2 a gallon in a lot of places, mortgage rates are down—
NANCY CORDES: --you mean below- gas prices on average are still at $3 a gallon.
HASSETT: Yeah that’s right for a few states they got below two.
Given the timidity of legacy media these days, Trump officials need to be really out there to get fact-checked in real time. But Cordes was right: average national gas prices are around $3 a gallon. And contra Hassett, there are no states in which gas prices are below $2, or even close:
Was Hassett lying, or just unaware of basic facts? Neither is what you want to see in a man who may soon be overseeing monetary policy.
Furthermore, if you’re trying to assess economic policy, it’s hard to come up with worse indicators than the prices of eggs and gasoline. Egg prices fluctuate wildly, not in response to policy changes, but because of the coming and going of bird flu. Gasoline prices mainly reflect the global price of crude oil, a price on which U.S. policy has at most a marginal influence.
So what are we to make of Hassett boasting about prices he should be ignoring if he becomes Fed chair?
Look, I’m not naïve. I understand that when you work for the president — any president — you’re expected to make the best case you honestly can for his policies. But “honestly” is the key word. Sycophancy toward a president who refuses to acknowledge reality, who insists that affordability is a “con job,” crosses that line.
It’s especially important that public officials not tarnish their reputations if they’re going to be moving on to jobs that are supposed to be apolitical — jobs like chairing the Federal Reserve.
The truth is that if Hassett becomes Fed chair, he’s likely to face some very hard choices. How will the Fed deal with the conundrum of weak labor markets combined with stubbornly elevated inflation? How will it respond to soaring electricity prices? If AI is a bubble, what will the Fed do when it bursts? If geopolitical conflict erupts, disrupting supply chains, how will the Fed react?
And the next Fed chair won’t just have to deal with these hard choices. He’ll have to build consensus among his colleagues. For crucial decisions about interest rates aren’t made by the chair, they’re made by committee.
To lead the Fed, then, requires both good judgment and gravitas. For the past two decades we’ve been blessed with chairs who possessed both. Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen were both highly regarded researchers who were able to combine intellectual excellence with strong management skills and a firm grasp on real-world concerns. Jerome Powell came from the world of investment banking — and is a lifelong Republican — but has earned widespread respect for his open-mindedness and willingness to learn from experts.
Hassett has none of these strengths. I won’t bore you with a review of his research career, from Dow 36,000 to his “cubic model” that predicted very few deaths from Covid,except to say that few would describe it with the words “highly regarded.”
My guess is that few economists will be willing to say this openly, but basically everyone understands that Hassett is an ideological DEI hire. That is, his career has depended not on getting things right but on displaying unswerving loyalty to conservative causes — and, latterly, on saying whatever Donald Trump wants to hear.
Some observers are consoling themselves with the thought that since interest rate decisions are made by committee, Hassett can’t do too much harm. But we expect more from Fed chairs than for them to be mostly harmless. We expect and need them to be effective leaders.
That’s not what we’re going to get.
MUSICAL CODA
After my navel-gazing post Tuesday, some readers asked how I come up with these musical codas. Robin proposes some of them, like the John Lee Hooker coda yesterday. Mostly, however, the secret is how I decompress at the end of the day.
I hate working after dinner, which I find depressing. Instead, I usually spend an hour or two listening to and watching musical performances. My tastes, it turns out, are very eclectic, so I consume a wide range of genres. And I’ve mostly disciplined the YouTube algorithm by rigorously refusing to click on anything involving (a) politics or (b) cute animals.
So I have a large mental library of music to draw on. It’s not inexhaustible. Sooner or later I’ll be doing repeats. But not yet.
For today: For whatever reason, Haim isn’t near the top of my rotation. But they’re definitely the real thing, and this is somewhat on point.
Thoughtful commentary on Go, Rust, and Zig by Sinclair Target. I haven't seen a single comparison that covers all three before and I learned a lot from reading this.
One thing that I hadn't noticed before is that none of these three languages implement class-based OOP.
Launched today at WIRED’s The Big Interview event, this manifesto (of which I'm a founding signatory) pushes for a positive framework for thinking about building hyper-personalized AI-powered software.
This part in particular resonates with me:
For decades, technology has required standardized solutions to complex human problems. In order to scale software, you had to build for the average user, sanding away the edge cases. In many ways, this is why our digital world has come to resemble the sterile, deadening architecture that Alexander spent his career pushing back against.
This is where AI provides a missing puzzle piece. Software can now respond fluidly to the context and particularity of each human—at scale. One-size-fits-all is no longer a technological or economic necessity. Where once our digital environments inevitably shaped us against our will, we can now build technology that adaptively shapes itself in service of our individual and collective aspirations.
The manifesto proposes five principles for building resonant software: Keeping data private and under personal stewardship, building software that's dedicated to the user's interests, ensuring plural and distributed control rather than platform monopolies, making tools adaptable to individual context, and designing for prosocial membership of shared spaces.
By 2025, it was clear to Komoroske and his cohort that Big Tech had strayed far from its early idealistic principles. As Silicon Valley began to align itself more strongly with political interests, the idea emerged within the group to lay out a different course, and a casual suggestion led to a process where some in the group began drafting what became today’s manifesto. They chose the word “resonant” to describe their vision mainly because of its positive connotations. As the document explains, “It’s the experience of encountering something that speaks to our deeper values.”
Kevin Wetzels published a useful first look at Django's background tasks based on the earlier RC, including notes on building a custom database-backed worker implementation.
Template Partials were implemented as a Google Summer of Code project by Farhan Ali Raza. I really like the design of this. Here's an example from the documentation showing the neat inline attribute which lets you both use and define a partial at the same time:
{# Define and render immediately. #}{%partialdefuser-infoinline%}
<divid="user-info-{{ user.username }}">
<h3>{{ user.name }}</h3>
<p>{{ user.bio }}</p>
</div>
{%endpartialdef%}{# Other page content here. #}{# Reuse later elsewhere in the template. #}
<sectionclass="featured-authors">
<h2>Featured Authors</h2>
{%foruserinfeatured%}{%partialuser-info%}{%endfor%}
</section>
You can also render just a named partial from a template directly in Python code like this:
Ivan Khalamendyk, Lviv, “I’m an independent Ukrainian physicist developing a ψ-field model of the universe – a single real wave ψ(x,t) that reproduces quantum matter, forces and gravity.”
Classmates has been part of the internet landscape long enough to feel like a legacy brand, yet it keeps finding ways to stay useful in a world that reinvents itself every five minutes. People who grew up during the first wave of social media often treat it like a digital time capsule, a place where they can revisit pieces of their past without digging through the attic or tracking down old yearbooks. That sense of familiarity still matters, especially as the broader tech world keeps chasing whatever the next trend promises to be. Classmates lean into something simpler. It preserves real history, it offers organization in a space that usually rewards chaos, and it gives users a way to see their own stories in context..
A Platform Built Around Personal History
While most social platforms want to speed up your day, Classmates.com tends to slow it down in a good way. People arrive with a purpose. They want to revisit graduation photos, track down an old club they forgot they joined, or see how many editions of their high school yearbook have survived the decades. The site has essentially built a curated archive out of the moments everyone swears they will keep track of, but rarely do. For a business, that creates a unique position. Nostalgia is powerful, but it only works when it stays grounded and authentic. Classmates.com handles that by keeping its focus on actual artifacts and verifiable information so that users always feel like they are stepping back into something real, not a reconstructed version of their past.
Why Digital Memory Still Matters
As people rely on their devices for almost everything, the idea of preserving personal history can feel like an afterthought. Still, the appetite for grounded digital memory continues to grow. Classmates capitalizes on that by organizing what would otherwise live in scattered boxes, lost email threads, or forgotten phone galleries. It turns those fragments into something coherent. That is valuable for users and equally valuable for brands that need consistent engagement without resorting to gimmicks. The platform stands at a midpoint between personal storytelling and digital archiving, which gives it a staying power many trend driven platforms struggle to maintain.
Expanding Beyond Reconnection And Into Shared Experiences
Social connections often strengthen when people do something together, which is why digital platforms continue to experiment with collaborative features. Classmates.com has explored ways to enhance that sense of participation by creating spaces where users can bounce between memory and activity. After reconnecting you can video chat, engage in playing games online with friends or even meetup in person for a coffee. Shared experiences give older connections new life. For a platform built on reunion energy, leaning into interactive engagement helps it remain relevant to users who want more than a static look back at their past.
A Quiet Strength In An Overcrowded Market
Tech evolves quickly, and consumer expectations evolve with it. Classmates.com does not try to compete with platforms that chase instant novelty. Instead, it focuses on clarity and purpose. That strategy has helped it maintain a steady audience that values durability over hyperactive change. While new apps appear every year promising reinvention, Classmates continues to refine its tools for browsing, organizing, and discovering long term personal history. The brand occupies a rare corner of the digital world where consistency feels like an asset, not a sign of complacency.
How Brands Interpret The Value Of Longevity
Businesses often talk about the importance of retention, but Classmates demonstrate what it looks like in practice. Users may not log in every day, yet when they return, they usually have a reason. That kind of intentional engagement is hard to manufacture. Companies watching that behavior can see how longevity, trust, and clarity can shape brand identity without extravagant branding or constant reinvention. It proves that a steady presence can be just as influential as rapid growth, especially when people want something familiar that still works the way they expect it to.
Where Classmates Positions Itself For The Future
Digital heritage is becoming an industry of its own. As more platforms fade or pivot, the need for stable archives grows. Classmates.com continues to serve users who care about preserving their real stories in a simple, navigable format. The company appears to be building on that foundation rather than chasing entirely new identities. That approach gives it room to expand thoughtfully, whether through enhanced discovery tools, better cross generational access, or features that help users bring their offline memorabilia into their online collections.
Classmates stand out by knowing exactly what it offers and leaning into it with calm confidence. In a space dominated by reinvention, it has carved out a thoughtful niche that treats personal history with care and clarity. It reminds users that some corners of the internet are meant to preserve, not overwhelm.
Thursday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2% (up 2.9% YoY).
• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).
At the office all the morning setting about business, and after dinner to it again, and so till night, and then home looking over my Brampton papers against to-morrow that we are to meet with our counsel on both sides toward an arbitration, upon which I was very late, and so to bed.
Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure!
• Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.1% in October 2025.
• Price declines expanded from six of the 100 largest metros in January to 32 by October, marking the broadest softening of prices since the early 2010s.
...
This year began with a stable growth trajectory, with national price growth posting an annual increase of 3.4% in January. However, that momentum slowed steadily as the year progressed. By October, annual appreciation was a mere 1.1% annual increase—the lowest rate since early 2012.
"The housing market in 2025 demonstrated remarkable resilience despite significant headwinds. Slowing price growth reflects a much-needed rebalancing after years of unsustainable gains. While some markets are experiencing declines, these adjustments will help restore affordability over time and make housing more accessible to a wider group of buyers,” said Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.
This deceleration highlights the impact of higher mortgage rates earlier in the year and persistent affordability challenges. Furthermore, price growth was dampened by a notable increase in inventory. Many markets saw a surge in both existing and newly built homes, slowing rates of in-migration and weakened demand.
The robust price increases of 2022 when top metros — primarily in Florida and the Southeast — saw gains exceeding 30% has now given way to declines. At the start of 2025, only six metros — primarily in Florida — posted year-over-year drops. By October, that number surged to 32, as pricing downturns extended into Texas, California, and various states throughout the Mountain West. emphasis added
This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.
The list is dominated by Florida and Texas. According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.
House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.
IHC’s $240bn market capitalisation makes it by far the biggest constituent of the Abu Dhabi stock exchange, taking up 41.5 per cent of the FTSE ADX General Index — a figure that rises still further when listed subsidiaries such as Alpha Dhabi and 2PointZero are included.
First Abu Dhabi Bank, the country’s largest lender and runner-up at a 10 per cent weighting, is also chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon. Because IHC is ultimately controlled by Sheikh Tahnoon, who is also the UAE’s national security adviser and chairs two of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds, academics classify it as a “state-related entity”.
IHC in turn consists of about 1500 firms, though consolidation is promised. Here is the full FT article.
Migrations are expensive in ... opportunity cost. Write hot spots appear only after a product is gaining real traction, which is a bad time to temporarily stop feature development and back off on user growth.
The above was an argument for pre-emptive, speculative performance tuning. If this product is successful, goes the thinking, then data write performance is going to become a bottleneck. We don’t want to have pause user growth to switch to a new database. Let’s just fix the bottleneck now.
I can empathize with the sentiment, but I think this line of reasoning creates risk & reduces profit.
Review
Going from exploration to expansion always creates the risk of uncovering new bottlenecks. Fixing bottlenecks quickly so extraction can commence is a more realistic goal.
To review, product development proceeds:
From exploration—the risky search for a viable return for a viable investment
To expansion—the elimination of bottlenecks to growth
To extraction—where profitable growth continues
Can’t Jump To Expand
The system design rules change between the three phases. In exploration, anything goes as long as it reduces the cost of experimentation. Use infrastructure that doesn’t scale if it accelerates experimentation.
The transition from exploration to expansion is tricky. The activities & values that resulted in successful exploration become dangerous during expansion. Exploration requires diverse, tangential thinking and experimentation. Expansion requires singular focus on removing the next bottleneck just before it chokes growth. Continuing to experiment distracts from this focus.
The activities & values that make for successful expansion, however, endanger exploration deployed prematurely. Doing a better job preparing for future growth slows experimentation, reducing the chance of success.
Success
The lament above, that during traction is a “bad time to stop feature development” is perfectly understandable. You’ve been experimenting for months or years. You’ve begun to despair of those experiments ever paying off. Suddenly you’re on a hot streak. Everything you try works.
Who wants to stop during a hot streak? (In poker we call this “playing the rush”.)
You can’t create infrastructure that eliminates all bottlenecks. You don’t know the exact circumstances of those bottlenecks. You don’t know what data distributions look like, usage patterns geographically or by time of day or day of week.
Universal infrastructure is under-constrained, does work it needn’t do. That extra work perversely creates risk in the precise situations we need to overcome now that users have shown us what those situations are.
Conclusion
The best we can hope for is:
To repair emerging bottlenecks quickly so we can get on with extraction. If this requires that we pause or throttle growth so we survive, that’s the price of success.
To permanently repair bottlenecks that “rhyme” with past bottlenecks, but this as an Extract project.
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket blasts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base to begin the Starlink 11-25 mission on Dec. 4, 2025. Image: SpaceX
Update Dec. 4, 5:30 p.m. EST (2230 UTC): SpaceX confirms deployment of the Starlink satellites.
SpaceX completed a lunchtime launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base Thursday afternoon.
The Starlink 11-25 mission launched aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4 East, delivering 28 more broadband internet satellites into low Earth orbit. This was the fourth launch this month supporting the Starlink satellite constellation and the 114th such launch this year.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from the California coastline at 12:42 p.m. PST (3:42 p.m. EST / 2042 UTC). The rocket flew on a south-easterly trajectory upon departure from the launch pad.
SpaceX launched the mission using its Falcon 9 booster with the tail number 1097. This was its fourth flight following the launches of the Sentinel-6B, Starlink 11-39 and Starlink 17-8.
Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1097 landed on the drone ship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You,’ marking the 167th touchdown on this vessel and the 544th booster landing for SpaceX to date.
Prior to the launch of the Starlink 11-25 mission, SpaceX launched 2,915 Starlink satellites across 113 missions in 2025. At least three more such missions are planned between Dec. 7 and Dec. 10.
In the midst of these Starlink flights, SpaceX is also slated to launch the NROL-77 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office. This is a classified payload set to launch from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Dec. 9.
Even with the recent weakness in house prices, it is important to note that there will NOT be a surge in foreclosures that could lead to cascading house price declines (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.
With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
But it is still important to track delinquencies and foreclosures.
... This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions based on the Q3 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile released in late November. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.
The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) was up 24% YOY from $765 million in Q3 2024 to $951 million in Q3 2025. This is still historically very low, but increasing.
In case you missed it, Tuesday night, the Democratic congressional candidate, Aftyn Benn, for TN-7 lost, but, importantly, she overperformed in a heavily Republican district, in what appears to be a thirteen point swing from the 2024 Trump margin of victory in the district. As you might imagine, the Trump White House and Republican leaders are soberly reviewing their current policies to understand how to better reach the American electorate.
Mr. Trump announced the pardon for Cuellar and his wife, Imelda, on Truth Social, claiming their prosecution was the result of weaponization by the Justice Department under former President Joe Biden.
“Henry, I don’t know you, but you can sleep well tonight — Your nightmare is finally over!” the president wrote, alleging that Cuellar’s opposition to Biden’s immigration policies was the reason he was indicted.
The president wrote that the Texas Democrat “bravely spoke out against Open Borders and the Biden Border ‘Catastrophe'” and accused Biden of deliberately targeting the congressman and his wife “simply for speaking the TRUTH.”
Keep in mind, the bribery investigation began during the Biden administration.
This is a preemptive pardon, as Cuellar has been indicted, but not convicted. Clearly, Trump is terrified of Democrats retaking the House and is so desperate, he is de facto bribing Cuellar (who is a bad Democrat; there was a good challenger–guess which one the party leadership backed!). Every vote might count, so having a Democrat who might take a dive on things like corruption is a boon for Trump.
It’s worth noting that, in the Federalist Papers, the authors who opposed a presidential pardon power anticipated that a corrupt president would use the pardon power to gain political favor. Seems even enslavers got things right once in a while…
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson told NOTUS that the pardon “surprised” him. He learned about it like the rest of us: online. “He’s definitely a more formidable opponent without the legal cloud hanging over him,” Hudson said of Cuellar.
Whoops! A Republican strategist close to the White House told Jasmine that some inside the Office of Legislative Affairs believed Cuellar was open to switching parties. When the strategist learned that Cuellar had filed to run for reelection as a Democrat, they responded, “Wow.”
It remains to be seen if Cuellar believes he owes Trump anything (a downside of bailing out shitty people is they often don’t return the favor…).
A recent article in The Lancet talks about the checkered career of the late James Watson (1928-2025), who participated in great science (the DNA double helix), wrote about it in popular terms that had some vulgar elements (The Double Helix), and later in life had troubling, unscientific thoughts on race and gender. This made me think of yesterday's post, which touched on the Statement from the American Economic Association concerning Larry Summers.
"There was always going to be a complex reckoning in the obituaries of James D Watson (1928–2025), the American geneticist who co-discovered the structure of DNA. For many years, Watson was one of the most influential figures in modern biology—Director, then President and Chancellor of the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL) in New York, USA, from 1968 to 2007, and the key motive force behind the Human Genome Project. He was also notorious for his attitudes towards women, especially Rosalind Franklin (1920–58), and for his comments on race, which led to a precipitous fall from grace in the past two decades. Watson enjoyed playing the role of provocateur, proudly claiming that his Chicago heritage made him inclined to speak his mind frankly no matter who it upset. The popular image of Watson now is of a great scientist who held controversial views. That, however, lets everyone too easily off the hook."
And here are the two concluding paragraphs:
"But this is also a cautionary tale about how science comports itself. Watson's 2007 interview was hardly a revelation to those who knew him; he had been making bigoted comments for years. In the Esquire interview in that same year he said “some anti-Semitism is justified. Just like some anti-Irish feeling is justified”. And yet there had been a continual turning of a blind eye: he was seen as “outspoken”, “colourful”, and “controversial”. In Watson's heyday, the scientific community tended to indulge such behaviour so long as the perpetrator was sufficiently eminent. Even after the disastrous interview in The Sunday Times, some considered Watson's reputation should shield him from repercussions. When a talk at the Science Museum in London was cancelled in 2007, Richard Dawkins complained about “the hounding, by what can only be described as an illiberal and intolerant ‘thought police’, of one of the most distinguished scientists of our time”. It can sometimes look as though the biggest crime in science is to create an unseemly fuss, especially on a topic deemed “political”. That Elon Musk, who is a fellow of the Royal Society (FRS), gave a Nazi salute, or that Stephen Hawking FRS attended soirées on Jeffrey Epstein's private island, are seen primarily as sources of embarrassment best passed over quickly.
"Perhaps times are changing. When Watson turned up at the event marking the 75th anniversary of Schrödinger's What Is Life? in Dublin, Ireland, and was given an impromptu toast by the organisers, there were dumbfounded glances all around the tables at the thought that we were expected to raise our glasses. Scientists are starting to confront difficult behaviour—but we still have some way to go before acknowledging that it can taint not only the practice of science but also its substance too. "
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We have had to think about fine figures with feet of clay at least since Daniel (33-34) interpreted for King Nebuchadnezzar his dream about a statue with "a head of fine gold, its breast and its arms were of silver, its belly and thighs were of copper. Its legs were of iron, and its feet were partly of iron and partly of clay."
Technicians with NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems team use a crane to lift and secure NASA’s Orion spacecraft on top of the SLS (Space Launch System) rocket in High Bay 3 of the Vehicle Assembly Building at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025, for the agency’s Artemis 2 mission. Image: NASA/Kim Shiflett
The four astronauts who are to fly a loop around the Moon next year on the Artemis 2 mission were supposed to board their Orion capsule on Nov. 19 for a launch day rehearsal, but a problem with the spacecraft’s hatch delayed the practice run, NASA told Spaceflight Now.
“We were supposed to be at Kennedy Space Center for the Countdown Demonstration Test, but we have delayed that test into December,” Artemis 2 Commander Reid Wiseman said in a video, shared Nov. 24 on social media. “We spent the bulk of this week sitting down with our flight control experts and our teams here at Johnson [Space Center] just working through all the questions that we have leading up to today.”
Similar countdown practice runs for astronauts and launch controllers took place during the Apollo and Shuttle programs and continue to this day for SpaceX Crew Dragon crews. For those rehearsals, the astronauts boarded their spaceships at the launch pad, but the Artemis 2 plan is different.
For the Countdown Demonstration Test, or CDT, the Artemis 2 astronauts will walkout out of crew quarters at the Neil Armstrong Operations and Checkouts Building in bright-orange pressure suits before traveling to the Vehicle Assembly Building, where their Orion capsule and Space Launch System rocket are being readied for flight in High Bay 3. Once inside the cavernous building they will ride the launch pad elevator to the 274-foot level, cross the crew access arm and strap in aboard the Orion spacecraft. Meanwhile in the adjacent Launch Control Center, Launch Director Charlie Blackwell-Thompson will run her team through the final hours of the countdown, before stopping the clock in its final moments. The astronauts will then practice an emergency evacuation from the capsule.
The crew of NASA’s Artemis 2 mission participates in a suited crew test on Thursday, July 31, 2025, at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. From left, NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Artemis 2 commander; Victor Glover, Artemis 2 pilot; and Christina Koch, mission specialist; along with CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Jeremy Hansen, mission specialist, donned their Orion crew survival system spacesuits for training at NASA’s Kennedy’s Multi-Payload Processing Facility, where they entered their fully powered Orion spacecraft as part of the test. Image: NASA/Rad Sinyak.
Spaceflight Now earlier reported that the countdown rehearsal was delayed by an issue with the Orion capsule. A NASA spokesperson confirmed that in a statement to Spaceflight Now on Wednesday, Dec. 3.
“Prior to the countdown demonstration test, the agency had planned to conduct a day of launch closeout demonstration. This demonstration was paused when a blemish was found on the crew module thermal barrier, preventing hatch closure until it could be addressed,” the statement read. “A repair was completed on Nov. 18 allowing the closeout demo to successfully complete on Nov. 19. To allow lessons learned from the closeout demo to be incorporated into the planning for the countdown demonstration test, the decision was made to proceed into water servicing next and place the countdown demonstration test after this servicing completes.”
It was not clear from the NASA statement how a ‘blemish’ prevented the closure of the hatch and NASA would not say exactly when the countdown rehearsal will take place.
Declining to provide further details, the space agency spokesperson said: “NASA remains on track to launch Artemis 2 no later than April 2026 with opportunities to potentially launch as soon as February.”
“It won’t affect our launch schedule, which is fantastic,” said Wiseman in the Nov. 24 video. “Charlie Blackwell-Thompson and her team at Kennedy are working hard, getting this vehicle ready for us to go.”
A high-level checklist of activities that NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems team needs to complete within the Vehicle Assembly Building at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center prior to rolling the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft out to Launch Complex 39B for final Artemis 2 launch preparations. This graphic was shared by the agency on Nov. 20, 2025. Graphic: NASA
The CDT is one of the big milestones outlined by NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems before the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft are rolled out from the VAB to the pad at Launch Complex 39B.
Once there, final-prelaunch checkouts will take place over a roughly 18-day work period. That work includes the Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR), during which teams will load more than 700,000 gallons of liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen onto the rocket in the same manner that will be done on launch day.
The four crew members, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, Jeremy Hansen and Wiseman, won’t be onboard the Orion capsule for the WDR, but will have some final emergency evacuation training at the pad.
In the week ending November 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 191,000, a decrease of
27,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when
it was 189,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 216,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving
average was 214,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was
revised up by 500 from 223,750 to 224,250. emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 214,750.
My son Maxwell Tabarrok’s paper is Peptide-DB: A Million-Peptide Database to Accelerate Science. Max’s paper combines economics and science policy. Open databases are a public good and so are underprovided. A case in point is that there is no big database for anti-microbial peptides despite the evident utility of such a database for using ML techniques to create new antibiotics. The NIH and other organizations have successfully filled this gap with databases in the past such as PubChem, the HGP, and ProteinDB. A million-peptide database is well within their reach:
The existing data infrastructure for antimicrobial peptides is tiny and scattered: a few thousand sequences with a couple of useful biological assays are scattered across dozens of data providers. No one in science today has the incentives to create this data. Pharma companies can’t make money from it and researchers can’t produce any splashy publications. This means that researchers are duplicating the expensive legwork of collating and cleaning all of this
data and are not getting optimal results, as this is simply not enough information to take full advantage of the ML approach. Scientific funding organizations, including the NIH and the NSF, can fix this problem. The scientific knowledge required to massively scale the data we have on antimicrobial peptides is well established and ready to go. It wouldn’t be too expensive or take too long to get a clean dataset of a million peptides or more, and to have detailed information on their activity against the most important resistant pathogens as well as its toxicity to human cells. This is well within the scale of the successful projects these organizations have funded in the past, including PubChem, the HGP, and ProteinDB.
The CDC did many things. It published learned papers on health crises, after the fact. It managed, very carefully, public perception of itself. But when the shooting started, it leapt into the nearest hole, while others took fire.
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed significant weaknesses in the CDC’s response system. Its traditional strengths in testing, pathogen dentification, and disease investigation and tracking faltered. The legacy of Alexander Langmuir, a pioneering epidemiologist who infused the CDC with epidemiological principles in the 1950s, now seems a distant memory. Tasks as basic as collecting and providing timely COVID-19 data, along with data analysis and epidemiological modeling—both of which should have been the core capability of the CDC—became alarmingly difficult and had to be handled by nongovernmental organizations, such as the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.
A closer examination of the CDC’s workforce composition reveals the root cause: a mere fraction of its employees are epidemiologists and data scientists. The agency has seen an increasing emphasis on academic exploration at the expense of on the-ground action and support for frontline health departments. (Armstrong & Griffin, 2022).
The authors propose to reinvigorate the CDC by integrating it with the more practical and active U.S. Public Health Service. This is a very good suggestion.
For one more check out Bai, Hyman and Silver as a primer on Improving Health Care. The entire issue is excellent.
Vinyl flooring is a popular choice in schools due to its durability, affordability, and ease of cleaning. However, maintaining these floors can create unexpected safety hazards, especially right after cleaning. Wet or freshly polished vinyl can become extremely slippery, posing a risk to students, teachers, and staff. In cases of serious injury, the personal injury lawyers at The Stoddard Firm can help determine who is responsible and identify the necessary legal steps.
Why Vinyl Flooring Is Common in Schools
Many schools opt for vinyl flooring because it can withstand heavy foot traffic and daily wear and tear. It is resistant to stains and scuffs, making it ideal for busy hallways where hundreds of students pass through every day. Custodial teams also find it easy to maintain, which keeps long-term costs low for school districts.
The Hidden Hazard After Cleaning
One of the biggest dangers occurs immediately after vinyl floors have been cleaned. Even a thin layer of water or cleaning solution can reduce traction. Students walking quickly between classes or carrying heavy backpacks may not notice the warning signs before it is too late.
Freshly waxed or polished vinyl floors are hazardous. The shine that attracts visitors can also hide moisture or residue. Slips and falls can happen within seconds if proper drying time is not observed.
Common Causes of Slip Hazards
Several factors can increase the risk of slipping on vinyl flooring. One common cause is the improper use of cleaning techniques. Using too much water or the wrong type of cleaning solution can leave behind a slick film.
Another factor is poor ventilation. Without adequate airflow, moisture takes longer to evaporate. This can make hallways unsafe for more extended periods after cleaning. Lastly, failing to use clear warning signs may cause students and staff to step onto wet floors without realizing it.
The Impact of Slip-and-Fall Accidents
Slip-and-fall accidents in schools can result in more than just embarrassment. They can cause serious injuries such as sprains, fractures, and concussions. Young children and older staff members are particularly vulnerable to these injuries.
Medical costs, missed school days, and emotional distress can follow a single fall. When such incidents occur due to negligence, schools and maintenance staff may face legal consequences. Understanding the risks and taking preventive measures can help avoid these outcomes.
Preventing Slips on Vinyl Floors
Prevention starts with proper cleaning practices. Custodial staff should always follow the manufacturer’s instructions for cleaning products and equipment. Using too much detergent or failing to rinse floors properly can leave slippery residues.
Carefully scheduling cleaning times can also reduce risks. For example, floors can be cleaned after school hours to allow enough drying time overnight. Adequate ventilation, such as open windows or fans, helps speed up the drying process.
Warning signs are another essential tool. Brightly colored “Wet Floor” signs should be placed in visible locations around any recently cleaned area. Staff should also ensure signs remain in place until the floors are completely dry.
The Role of Maintenance and Training
Proper training for custodial staff is crucial in minimizing accidents. Workers should understand which cleaning agents are safe for use on vinyl and how much water to use. They should also learn to spot early warning signs of slippery surfaces.
Regular maintenance also helps reduce risks. Over time, old wax or polish layers can build up, creating uneven textures that affect traction. Stripping and resealing floors correctly ensures a safe and consistent surface.
Schools should also have clear communication between maintenance teams and administrators. Informing teachers about cleaning schedules can help them direct students away from wet areas.
Legal Responsibilities of Schools
Schools have a legal duty to provide a safe environment for students and employees. This includes maintaining hallways and floors in a condition that does not present unreasonable risks. If someone is injured after slipping on a freshly cleaned vinyl floor, the school may be held responsible.
Liability depends on whether the school took reasonable steps to prevent the hazard. For example, if warning signs were missing or cleaning was performed during peak hours, it could indicate negligence. Documentation of cleaning schedules and maintenance protocols can be key evidence in such cases.
How Legal Professionals Can Help
When a slip-and-fall accident occurs, it is crucial to investigate quickly. Witness statements, photographs, and cleaning logs can help determine the cause of the incident. Legal professionals can assess whether the school or its contractors adhered to safety standards.
Victims of these incidents may be entitled to compensation for medical expenses, pain, and suffering. Guidance from experienced attorneys can ensure their rights are protected. The personal injury lawyers at The Stoddard Firm have experience handling such cases and can assist in evaluating liability and pursuing justice.
Final Thoughts
Slips on vinyl flooring after cleaning are a preventable hazard in school hallways. With proper maintenance, training, and safety awareness, schools can significantly reduce the risk of accidents. Paying attention to drying times and warning signs can make all the difference. In severe cases, the personal injury lawyers at The Stoddard Firm can provide the support and expertise needed to navigate the legal process and seek fair compensation.
Divorce is rarely straightforward, and things can get even more complicated when a family business is involved. With thoughtful planning, open communication, and trusted legal guidance from The Law Office of Stephen Vertucci, couples can work toward a fair resolution that protects both the business and their financial futures.
Understanding the Business as a Marital Asset
The first step in dividing a family business is determining whether it qualifies as a marital asset. Generally, if the company was started or significantly expanded during the marriage, its value will be part of what needs to be divided. To move forward fairly, the business should be professionally appraised — usually by an independent valuation expert — to determine its true market worth.
Several factors influence this valuation, including:
Tangible assets: Equipment, property, inventory, and financial accounts.
Intangible assets: Brand reputation, client relationships, intellectual property, and goodwill.
Income streams: Past and projected profits.
Exploring Division Options
Once the business’s value has been determined, the next step is to determine how to divide it without disrupting operations. There are a few common ways to approach this:
1. Buyout by One Spouse
One of the simplest solutions is for one spouse to purchase the other’s share of the business. This approach allows the company to continue under a single owner while ensuring fair compensation for the departing spouse. The buyout can be structured in different ways—through a lump-sum payment, an installment plan, or by trading other marital assets such as real estate or retirement accounts to balance the value.
2. Co-Ownership
Some divorced couples choose to remain business partners. This arrangement can work if both parties maintain a professional demeanor, keep communication open, and clearly define their roles. For example, one spouse might manage daily operations while the other handles finances or marketing.
To avoid future misunderstandings, it’s essential to have a written agreement in place. The document should outline each person’s responsibilities, specify who has decision-making authority, describe how profits will be shared, and outline the process for resolving disagreements or addressing a party’s desire to sell their share.
3. Selling the Business
If neither spouse wants to continue managing the company, selling the business and dividing the proceeds may be the most straightforward solution. While this option brings closure to the joint venture, it also helps avoid future disagreements and ensures both parties walk away with a fair outcome.
That said, selling isn’t always easy, primarily if the business supports family members or employs a loyal team. In such cases, planning the sale carefully or hiring a temporary manager can help maintain stability during the transition.
Legal Tools That Offer Protection
Certain legal arrangements can make dividing a business during a divorce more straightforward while helping to keep operations running smoothly. Common options include:
Prenuptial and Postnuptial Agreements: These agreements can clearly define ownership percentages, buyout terms, and other key conditions in advance. By setting expectations early, they help reduce conflict and uncertainty in the event of a divorce.
Shareholder or Partnership Agreements: Such documents outline how ownership shares can be transferred or sold, preventing a divorce from automatically affecting the company’s structure or stability. They ensure business continuity even as personal circumstances change.
Trusts and Holding Structures: In some situations, placing the business within a trust or holding company can help separate personal and business assets. This setup adds a layer of protection, allowing the company to continue operating with minimal disruption.
Even if no formal agreements were created beforehand, it’s still possible to negotiate similar terms during divorce proceedings. Doing so can help maintain stability and safeguard the business’s future.
The Emotional Side of Business Division
Beyond the financial and legal hurdles, dividing a family business can have a profound emotional toll. For many couples, the company isn’t just a source of income; it’s a reflection of their shared effort, family identity, and years of hard work. It’s only natural for feelings to run high, but keeping a level head is key to making sound decisions.
Working with a counselor, mediator, or neutral business advisor can make it easier to handle difficult discussions and reach practical solutions. By focusing on shared priorities, such as protecting employees, maintaining profitability, and preserving the company’s reputation, both parties can move forward with a sense of fairness and respect.
Final Thoughts
Dividing a family-owned business during a divorce doesn’t have to mean walking away from what you’ve built together. With an accurate valuation, open and fair negotiation, and trusted legal guidance from The Law Office of Stephen Vertucci, couples can reach a resolution that respects both partners’ contributions while maintaining the business’s strength. Whether the final decision leads to a buyout, shared ownership, or the eventual sale of the company, the priority should always be preserving the business’s stability and long-term success.
How did the screen you’re looking at right now get invented? There was a whole pipeline of innovation that started in the early 20th century. First, about a hundred years ago, a few weird European geniuses invented quantum mechanics, which lets us understand semiconductors. Then in the mid 20th century some Americans at Bell Labs invented the semiconductor. Some Japanese and American scientists at various corporate labs learned how to turn those into LEDs, LCDs, and thin-film transistors, which we use to make screens. Meanwhile, American chemists at Corning invented Gorilla Glass, a strong and flexible form of glass. Software engineers, mostly in America, created software that allowed screens to respond to touch in a predictable way. A host of other engineers and scientists — mostly in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and the U.S. — did a bunch of incremental hardware improvements to make those screens brighter, higher-resolution, stronger, more responsive to touch, and so on. And voila — we get the screen you’re reading this post on.
This story is very simplified and condensed, but it illustrates how innovation is a pipeline. We have names for pieces of this pipeline — “basic research”, “applied research”, “invention”, “innovation”, “commercialization”, and so on — but these are approximate, and it’s often hard to tell where one of these ends and another begins. What we do know about this pipeline is:
It tends to go from general ideas (quantum mechanics) to specific products (a modern phone or laptop screen).
The initial ideas rarely if ever can be sold for money, but at some point in the chain you start being able to sell things.
That switch from non-monetizable to monetizable typically means that the early parts of the chain are handled by inventors, universities, government labs, and occasionally a very big corporate lab, while the later parts of the chain are handled mostly by corporate labs and other corporate engineers.
Very rarely does a whole chain of innovation happen within a single country; usually there are multiple handoffs from country to country as the innovation goes from initial ideas to final products.
Here’s what I think is a pretty good diagram from Barry Naughton, which separates the pipeline into three parts:
Over the years, the pipeline has changed a lot. In the old days, a lot of the middle stages — the part where theory gets turned into some basic prototype invention — were done by lone inventors like Thomas Edison or Nikola Tesla. Later, corporate labs took over this function, bringing together a bunch of different scientists and lots of research funding. Recently, corporate labs do less basic research (though they’re still very important in some areas like AI and pharma), and venture-funded startups have moved in to fill some of that gap.
The early parts of the pipeline changed too — university labs scaled up and became better funded, government labs got added, and a few very big corporate labs like Bell Labs even did some basic science of their own. The key innovation here was Big Science — in World War 2, America began using government to fund the early stages of the innovation pipeline with truly massive amounts of money. Everyone knows about the NIH and the NSF, but the really huge player here is the Department of Defense:
Japan, meanwhile, worked on improving the later parts of the chain. I recommend the book We Were Burning for a good intro to the ways that Japanese corporate labs utilized their companies’ engineering-intensive manufacturing divisions to make a continuous stream of small improvements to the final products, as well as finding ways to scale up and reduce costs (kaizen).
And finally, the links between the pieces of the pipeline — the way that technology gets handed off from one institution to another at different stages of the chain — changed as well. America passed the Bayh-Dole Act in 1980, making it a lot easier for university labs to commercialize their work — which thus made it easy and often lucrative for corporations to fund research at universities. (This had its roots in earlier practices by U.S. and German universities.)
Meanwhile, in parallel, the U.S. pioneered a couple of other models. There was the DARPA model, where an independent program manager funded by the government coordinates researchers from across government, companies, and universities in order to produce a specific technology that then gets handed off to both companies and the military. And there are occasional “Manhattan projects”, where the government coordinates a bunch of actors to create a specific technological breakthrough, like building nuclear weapons, landing on the moon, or sequencing the human genome.
So we’ve seen a number of big changes in the innovation pipeline over the years. And different countries have done innovation differently, adding crucial pieces and making key changes as their innovation ecosystems developed The UK pioneered the patent-protected “lone inventor” model (with some forerunners of modern venture capital). Germany created corporate labs and the research university. America invented Big Science, modern VC, and DARPA, while also scaling up modern university-private collaboration and undertaking a few Manhattan-type projects. And Japan added continuous improvement and continuous innovation at the end of the chain.
That story more or less brings us up from the 1700s to the late 2010s. That’s when China enters the innovation story in a big way.
China’s innovation boom
Up through the mid-2010s, China had a pretty typical innovation system — the government would fund basic research, companies would have labs that would create products, and so on. China wasn’t really at the technological frontier yet, though, so this system didn’t really matter that much for Chinese technology — most of the advances came from overseas, via licensing, joint ventures, reverse engineering, or espionage. If you’ve ever heard people talk about how China “steals” all its tech, they’re talking about this era — and “steal” means a whole bunch of different things.
In the 2010s, China’s growth slowed down. There were a lot of reasons for that, but one reason was that they were approaching the limits of how much technology they could transfer from overseas. They had to start inventing things on their own. So they did.
You’ve probably read a lot about Chinese innovation in the last few years. Most things you read will fall into one or more of three basic categories:
“Look how much money China is spending on research”
“Look how many academic papers China is publishing”
“Look which high-tech industries China is dominating”
And since salaries and materials and equipment are all cheaper in China, in PPP terms they’re actually spending a bit more on research than America now. And the gap is set to widen, with or without planned U.S. budget cuts:
As for scientific output, despite inflating their citation counts a lot with citation rings and other tricks, China now leads the world in high-quality STEM papers, especially in materials science, chemistry, engineering, and computer science:
And as for high-tech manufacturing, China is dominating there as well, except in a few narrow sectors where U.S. export controls have managed to keep key pieces of technology out of Chinese hands.
One other piece of evidence that China’s innovation is producing real results comes from the royalties that the world pays to Chinese companies to license their technologies. This amount has skyrocketed since China rolled out its new innovation system in the late 2010s, showing that China is producing lots of technology that the world is willing to pay for:
But although you’ll read a lot in the news about how much China is innovating, you almost never read a good explanation of how they’re doing it. Most people don’t seem to think about how research actually functions; people talk as if it’s just a black box where money goes in and cutting-edge high-tech products come out the other side. But it’s not a black box; the way that a country translates money into products is very important. It affects how productively the money will get used, who spends the money, how much can be deployed, what kinds of products and technologies that the system will create, and who will benefit from those products.
In fact, we know a lot about China’s innovation system — enough to know that in the last decade, they’ve created something new and powerful and interesting. If you want some readings, I strongly recommend:
Anyway, reading all this, it’s clear that like all the industrial nations before it, China has made big changes to the way innovation gets done. I’ll talk about what these changes are, and what they imply for the future of technology (and the economy), but first I think it’s useful to think a bit about the purpose of China’s innovation system.
I’ve been pretty critical of Zohran Mamdani’s ideas for New York City. His plan to make buses free would degrade the quality of public transit and make it both less useful and less popular. His idea to open government-run grocery stores would just fail outright. His rent control plan would at least partially undermine his housing plans, while his proposed tax increases would probably accelerate the exodus of New York’s crucial finance industry.
But at least one of Zohran’s ideas is excellent: His support for small business. In a recent video, he promised to make it “faster, easier, and cheaper” for small retail businesses to open in NYC, to cut fines and fees for these businesses by 50%, to accelerate permits and applications, to slash regulations, to have government workers who help small businesses navigate government requirements, and to increase funding for small business support programs by 500%. Many of these ideas are listed on Mamdani’s website.
Mamdani’s push to support small business is part of a larger overall theme within America’s revitalized socialist movement, and within modern progressivism in general — a deep suspicion of big corporations and an instinctive support for mom & pops. It’s not just movement progressives, either. Daniel Lurie, San Francisco’s mayor, is widely regarded as a centrist, and yet he has made support for small retail businesses a keystone of his approach to urban revitalization:
Mayor Daniel Lurie today signed five ordinances from his PermitSFlegislative package, driving the city’s economic recovery by making major structural changes that will help small business owners and property owners secure the permits they need more easily and efficiently. Reforms include common-sense measures to support small businesses through the permitting process, boost the city’s nightlife businesses, help families maintain their homes, and increase flexibility to support businesses downtown.
No more permits for sidewalk tables and chairs—putting $2,500 back in the pockets of small businesses and saving them valuable time…No more permits and fees to put your business name in your store window or paint it on your storefront…No more trips to the Permit Center to have candles on your restaurant’s table…No more rigid rules about what your security gate must look like so businesses have more options to secure their storefronts…No more long waits or costly reviews for straightforward improvements to your home, like replacing a back deck…And we’re getting rid of outdated rules to give downtown businesses more flexibility with how to use their ground-floor spaces—because if adding childcare centers and gyms will help bring companies and employees back downtown, we should support it…In addition, every city department involved in permitting will track timelines and publish them online…Learn more about the initiative at https://sf.gov/permitsf
I’m extremely happy about this trend. To be frank, there’s not much to like in the model of progressive local governance that has emerged over the last two decades. Cumbersome regulations that slow construction and raise costs, public money funneled to useless or corrupt nonprofits, permissive policies toward crime and disorder, and weakening public education in the name of “equity” have all sadly become part of the standard progressive package, with predictably terrible results. (Lurie is known as a “centrist” because he has tried to rectify at least some of these problems.)
But the emerging support for small business is a very important bright spot! First of all, it’s an example of progressives supporting productive enterprise, rather than treating every type of human activity as an opportunity for ad-hoc redistribution. Progressives talk endlessly about “resources”, but the pool of resources in a city is not fixed. If you make buses scary to use by allowing disorderly people onto them, or if you limit new housing construction with regulation, or if you outsource city services to less competent nonprofits, the total amount of your city’s resources goes down, and there is simply less to go around.
But small businesses increase a city’s total resources, because they are productive enterprises. Every restaurant means a greater variety of food to eat, every boutique means a greater selection of clothes to wear. They’re an incredibly important component of capitalism, providing productive employment for almost half of all private-sector workers.
At this point, some hard-headed conservative is going to pop up to inform me that small business is inherently less efficient at production than big business. And this is generally true. Economies of scale are a real thing — when you can leverage the distribution networks and high volumes of Wal-Mart, you can afford to charge consumers lower prices than a corner bodega that doesn’t have those advantages.
That’s why big chain stores tend to drive mom-and-pop shops out of business when they come to town. When chains drive out small businesses, productivity goes up significantly — in fact, Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (2006) estimated that this was the main source of productivity growth for the U.S. retail industry in the late 20th century.1
And yet when small business dies, something important is lost. For one thing, an important path to the middle class is closed off. Small business provides a lot of employment, but the class whose lives are transformed the most are the business owners themselves. This is from a 2014 report by the Urban Institute:
Family-business ownership is associated with faster upward mobility than observed in paid work once selection is addressed….[We find] a positive and significant [causal effect] on family-business ownership, where the outcome is upward income mobility from 1980 to 1999…[Our results] suggest that family-business ownership led to a higher level of economic advancement relative to working for someone else in the 1980s and 1990s. Owning or having a management stake in a small business had an unambiguously positive effect on upward income mobility during the 1980s and 1990s after controlling for resources in the 1970s.
This is the reason for Japan’s legendarily staunch support of small retail businesses. The country offers small businesspeople a dizzying array of cheap loans, tax incentives, subsidies for technological upgrading, free training and education, expedited permitting and regulatory approval, startup subsidies, various place-based policies, protection from competition by large chains, and so on.
Small business is considered a key pillar of the Japanese middle class, and also an escape hatch for independent-minded Japanese people to escape the often stifling corporate system. Altogether, small businesses of all types are responsible for 70% of Japanese employment, which is significantly higher than in the U.S. This preponderance of small business has probably held back Japan’s productivity to some degree, but it’s a sacrifice the country has been willing to make.
In the United States, small business is especially important as a ladder of upward mobility for immigrants, as anyone whose immigrant ancestors owned a convenience store, a furniture store, or a gas station can attest. Immigrants own a disproportionately high percent of the country’s mom-and-pop shops, especially in the restaurant industry.
At this point, the aforementioned hard-headed conservatives may accuse me of caring about distribution more than production. Why settle for somewhat-productive mom-and-pop shops when you could get ultra-productive chains like CVS and Walmart? If we’re going for productivity, why not go all the way?
The answer, I think, is political-economic in nature. Socialists may be leading the charge for small business, but small business owners are perhaps the key constituency for capitalism itself. Being a business owner means that you are, by definition, a capitalist; you depend for your livelihood not just on the right to own capital and hire workers, but also on the entire network of trade and markets that supports modern business. Any major shock to that underlying free-market system — or even government policies that increase your costs by a moderate amount — is a threat to your way of life.
And on top of that, your day-to-day experience of life — hiring, firing, buying, selling, and so on — will familiarize you with the basic principles of markets. As a small businessperson, you “eat what you kill” — your survival depends on your own ability and hard work, and there’s no one looking out for you.
Compare that to the experience of being an employee of a large company, where your destiny is controlled by a distant gigantic organization, and your individual initiative may or may not be recognized and rewarded by your boss. In that sort of environment, socialism may start to seem appealing — it’s just replacing one big domineering organization with another, except at least you can vote for the people in the government.
No wonder small businesspeople tend to support pro-business parties. In the U.S., they’re traditionally a key Republican constituency, reflecting the fact that the GOP used to be known as the party of business. In fact, it’s a consistent finding across countries. Malhotra, Margalit, and Shi (2025) crunch a large number of data sources, and emerge with one consistent finding:
We show that this sizable constituency of [small business owners], which is responsible for a substantial share of economic growth and overall employment, systematically leans to the right. This is most notable among business owners that employ other workers. Our findings indicate that this political affiliation is not merely a result of background characteristics that lead people to open or run a business.
Rather, the evidence suggests that experiences associated with running a business— particularly the heightened need to deal with the regulatory state—underlie the greater appeal of parties on the right.
Allowing hyper-efficient chain businesses like Wal-Mart to annihilate independent retail might bring a bit of economic efficiency and some higher profits in the short run, but in the long run, dispossessing the masses of significant capital ownership and disconnecting them from the reality of running a business is probably how you get trends like this one:
Ironically, this means socialists might be hurting their cause in the long term by supporting small business. But in the short term, they might manage to narrow the support gap with the GOP, while devolving capital ownership to a broader base of owners. That might be a compromise worth making, especially in cities like NYC and San Francisco where Republicans are probably not going to be a competitive threat anytime soon.
In the realm of urbanism, too, my bet is that small business owners have a positive effect. Data is more sparse here, but lots of the things that make cities livable — low crime, cheap dense housing, high-quality public transit — also happen to be the very things that bring lots of customers to small businesses’ doors. Small businesses do much better when they have lots of people living nearby, who can easily reach their doors on foot, and who can go outside without being worried about crime. The more that small businesses get strengthened in American cities, I predict, the faster sanity can be restored to urban policy after the missteps of the last few years.
On top of all the political-economic and distributional benefits, having a lot of small independent retail outlets just makes a city really, really nice. I wrote about this back in May:
I’ll just quote myself a little bit:
Although American urbanists usually think in terms of housing density — which is understandable, given the country’s failure to build enough housing — I’ve come to realize the importance of commercial density. Basically, great cities have a lot of shops everywhere…The beauty of Brooklyn’s brownstones, or Paris’ Haussmann apartments, comes in large part from the fact that they’re located near to shops…
When we lament the isolation of the suburbs, we’re not really lamenting low residential density; we’re lamenting the isolation of houses from third spaces where people might meet and mingle. Those third spaces are shops…If you expect citizens to give up the comfort of huge suburban houses and leafy green lawns and move to the city center, they have to be compensated in some way. Having a huge variety of stores and restaurants and bars and cafes within easy walking distance is that compensation.
I’ve also written about how Japan’s strong support for small business is one of the biggest reasons why its cities are such amazing places to live and to visit. You just can’t beat the experience of walking around all those cool little independent restaurants and stores.
So anyway, I’m not worried about the economic inefficiency of small shops. They bring balance to the political system, they improve the quality of our cities, and they support the great American middle class. No wonder they’re more popular than any other institution in the country:
Mamdani, Lurie, and the other mayors supporting small retail business are doing exactly the right thing. It’s very refreshing to see a sensible urban policy after so many years of destructive nonsense.
Whether small business are good for economic growth overall is a slightly different question. In fact, different studies tend to contradict each other on this point.
Here is the second (and final) installment of my survey of the 100 best recordings of the year. For part one, click here.
As always, I cover all genres, all styles, and all regions.
Most of these artists will be unfamiliar names. (There’s only one certified gold album on my list this year.) But their music is fresh and exciting and will reward your attention.
So I encourage you to click on the links (in the album titles) to sample the work of these deserving musicians.
Happy listening!
Please support my work—by taking out a premium subscription (just $6 per month).
Private astronaut Jared Isaacman returned to Congress on Wednesday for a second confirmation hearing to become NASA administrator before the US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation in Washington, DC.
There appeared to be no showstoppers during the hearing, in which Isaacman reiterated his commitment to the space agency’s Artemis Program and defended his draft plan for NASA, “Project Athena,” which calls for an assessment of how NASA should adapt to meet the modern space age.
During his testimony, Isaacman expressed urgency as NASA faces a growing threat from China to its supremacy in spaceflight.
Tyler and Dan debate whether American infrastructure is actually broken or just differently optimized, why health care spending should reach 35% of GDP, how lawyerly influences shaped East Asian development differently than China, China’s lack of a liberal tradition and why it won’t democratize like South Korea or Taiwan did, its economic dysfunction despite its manufacturing superstars, Chinese pragmatism and bureaucratic incentives, a 10-day itinerary for Yunnan, James C. Scott’s work on Zomia, whether Beijing or Shanghai is the better city, Liu Cixin and why volume one of The Three-Body Problem is the best, why contemporary Chinese music and film have declined under Xi, Chinese marriage markets and what it’s like to be elderly in China, the Dan Wang production function, why Stendhal is his favorite novelist and Rossini’s Comte Ory moves him, what Dan wants to learn next, whether LLMs will make Tyler’s hyper-specific podcast questions obsolete, what flavor of drama their conversation turned out to be, and more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: When will Chinese suburbs be really attractive?
WANG: What are Chinese suburbs? You use this term, Tyler, and I’m not sure what exactly they mean.
COWEN: You have a yard and a dog and a car, right?
WANG: Yes.
COWEN: You control your school district with the other parents. That’s a suburb.
WANG: How about never? I’m not expecting that China will have American-style suburbs anytime soon, in part because of the social engineering projects that are pretty extensive in China. I think there is a sense in which Chinese cities are not especially dense. Indian cities are much, much more dense. I think that Chinese cities, the streets are not necessarily terribly full of people all the time. They just sprawl quite extensively.
They sprawl in ways that I think the edges of the city still look somewhat like the center of the city, which there’s too many high-rises. There’s probably fewer parks. There’s probably fewer restaurants. Almost nobody has a yard and a dog in their home. That’s in part because the Communist Party has organized most people to live in apartment compounds in which it is much easier to control them.
We saw this really extensively in the pandemic, in which people were unable to leave their Shanghai apartment compounds for anything other than getting their noses and mouths swabbed. I write a little bit about how, if you take the rail outside of major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, you hit farmland really, really quickly. That is in part because the Communist Party assesses governors as well as mayors on their degree of food self-sufficiency.
Cities like Shanghai and Beijing have to produce a lot of their own crops, both grains as well as vegetables, as well as fruits, as well as livestock, within a certain radius so that in case there’s ever a major devastating war, they don’t have to rely on strawberries from Mexico or strawberries from Cambodia,or Thailand. There’s a lot of farmland allocated outside of major cities. I think that will prevent suburban sprawl. You can’t control people if they all have a yard as well as a dog. I think the Communist Party will not allow it.
COWEN: Whether the variable of engineers matters, I went and I looked at the history of other East Asian economies, which have done very well in manufacturing, built out generally excellent infrastructure. None of these problems with the Second Avenue line in New York. Taiwan, like the presidents, at least if we believe GPT-5, three of them were lawyers and none of them were engineers. South Korea, you have actually some economists, a lot of bureaucrats.
WANG: Wow. Imagine that. Economists in charge, Tyler.
COWEN: I wouldn’t think it could work. A few lawyers, one engineer. Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, he’s a lawyer. He thinks in a very lawyerly manner. Singapore has arguably done the best of all those countries. Much richer than China, inspired China. Why should I think engineers rather than just East Asia, and a bunch of other accompanying facts about these places are what matter?
WANG: Japan, a lot of lawyers in the top leadership. What exactly was the leadership of Hong Kong? A bunch of British civil servants.
COWEN: Some of whom are probably lawyers or legal-type minds, right? Not in general engineers.
WANG: PPE grads. I think that we can understand the engineering variable mostly because of how much more China has done relative to Japan and South Korea and Taiwan.
COWEN: It’s much, much poorer. Per capita manufacturing output is gone much better in these other countries.
And:
WANG: Tyler, what does it say about us that you and I have generally a lot of similar interests in terms of, let’s call it books, music, all sorts of things, but when it comes to particular categories of things, we oppose each other diametrically. I much prefer Anna Karenina to War and Peace. I prefer Buddenbrooks to Magic Mountain. Here again, you oppose me. What’s the deal?
COWEN: I don’t think the differences are that big. For instance, if we ask ourselves, what’s the relative ranking of Chengdu plus Chongqing compared to the rest of the world? We’re 98.5% in agreement compared to almost anyone else. When you get to the micro level, the so-called narcissism of petty differences, obviously, you’re born in China. I grew up in New Jersey. It’s going to shape our perspectives.
Anything in China, you have been there in a much more full-time way, and you speak and read Chinese, and none of that applies to me. I’m popping in and out as a tourist. Then, I think the differences make much more sense. It’s possible I would prefer to live in Shanghai for essentially the reasons you mentioned. If I’m somewhere for a week, I’m definitely going to pick Beijing. I’ll go around to the galleries. The things that are terrible about the city just don’t bother me that much, because I know I’ll be gone.
WANG: 98.5% agreement. I’ll take that, Tyler. It’s you and me against the rest of the world, but then we’ll save our best disagreements for each other.
COWEN: Let’s see if you can pass an intellectual Turing test. Why is it that I think Yunnan is the single best place in the world to visit? Just flat out the best if you had to pick one region. Not why you think it is, but why I think it is.
Strongly recommended, Dan and I had so much fun we kept going for about an hour and forty minutes. And of course you should buy and read Dan’s bestselling book Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.
America has a new steel company, which is sort of a weird thing to write in 2025.
It’s called Hertha Metals, and it’s based in Houston. It’s also run by a woman named Laureen Meroueh, who is this week’s guest. As far as we can tell, Meroueh stands out as the first female to start and run a steel producer.
Meroueh grew up as something of a child prodigy in Florida and went on to earn a PhD in mechanical engineering from MIT. She then invented some of the processes that make Hertha different from traditional steel producers.
Hertha relies on natural gas and hydrogen instead of coal to make high-grade steel. Its process is potentially cleaner, simpler and cheaper than the approaches used by the traditional steelmakers that have been around for more than 150 years. The start-up is already producing one ton of steel per day and is now looking to prove that it can make much, much more and compete head-to-head against the major steel players.
In this episode, we get into how Hertha’s process works, the steel industry overall, why the U.S. needs this type of technology and how Meroueh ended up as a steel magnate.
Our show is sponsored by Brex, the intelligent finance platform. Like thousands of ambitious, innovative companies, we run on Brex so we can spend smarter and move faster. And you can too. Learn more at www.brex.com/corememory
The podcast is also made possible by E1 Ventures, which backs the most ambitious founders and start-ups.
China’s Landspace carried out the first launch of its reusable Zhuque-3 rocket late Tuesday, successfully achieving orbit, but failing with a first stage landing attempt.
Speaking at the 2025 SpaceNews Icon Awards, Purdy said the pace of progress outside government is setting the agenda for how the service develops technology.
The agreement brings “AI pilot” software to space as the Pentagon seeks capabilities for close proximity operations, swarm coordination and defensive satellite maneuvers
Readers of this magazine have known for years what we, as investors, have also known for years: that the space sector is not some marginal realm of human activity, to […]
When a Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California late Nov. 16, it did something that was unprecedented a decade ago but unremarkable today: it landed […]
Nuclear power startup Antares announced a $96 million Series B round Dec. 2 to fund work on developing small nuclear reactors, including for space applications.
Senate Commerce Committee leaders said they hope to swiftly confirm Jared Isaacman as NASA administrator as he delivered a “message of urgency” about returning astronauts to the moon before China.
For decades, building a space mission meant a hard choice between two imperfect models. The first was the traditional prime: capable, proven, and thorough, but slow and expensive. Customers paid […]
Asset-financing specialist SLI plans to buy two small GEO satellites from U.S. startup AscendArc in a deal valued at more than $200 million, betting that operators will increasingly choose to lease spacecraft rather than buy them outright.
Meta Platforms Inc. has poached Apple Inc.’s most prominent design
executive in a major coup that underscores a push by the social
networking giant into AI-equipped consumer devices.
The company is hiring Alan Dye, who has served as the head of
Apple’s user interface design team since 2015, according to people
with knowledge of the matter. Apple is replacing Dye with longtime
designer Stephen Lemay, according to the people, who asked not to
be identified because the personnel changes haven’t been
announced.
Apple confirmed the move in a statement provided to
Bloomberg News.
“Steve Lemay has played a key role in the design of every major
Apple interface since 1999,” Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook said
in the statement. “He has always set an extraordinarily high bar
for excellence and embodies Apple’s culture of collaboration and
creativity.”
It sounds like Dye chose to jump ship, and wasn’t squeezed out (as it seems with former AI chief John Giannandrea earlier this week). Gurman/Bloomberg are spinning this like a coup for Meta (headline: “Apple Design Executive Alan Dye Poached by Meta in Major Coup”), but I think this is the best personnel news at Apple in decades. Dye’s decade-long stint running Apple’s software design team has been, on the whole, terrible — and rather than getting better, the problems have been getting worse.
We seem to be in another Epstein hiatus before the story and obsession again explodes into the center of the political news ecosystem. Presumably the next episode will come when the White House releases the heavily redacted and/or cooked version of the “Epstein files” that Congress ordered the administration to release. But I wanted to note this very weird oddity right smack in the center of the story that continues to be almost entirely ignored. I was reminded of it last night by this story in The Bulwark by Mona Charen. I first heard about in those interviews Sid Blumenthal and Sean Wilentz did with Michael Wolff about Jeff Epstein, which I wrote about back in September. Wolff discussed something that I had never heard before: that Steve Bannon, basically right up to the time Epstein died, was working with him on a combo rebrand/crisis comms effort to rehabilitate Epstein’s reputation. Yes! Bannon was working as Epstein’s image rehab specialist. The man at the center of all the anti-“elite”, anti-“globalist” pedophiles was tight with Epstein and trying to help him come in from the sex offender cold. He’d actually done hours of video interviews with Epstein as prep for either a 60 Minutes or 60 Minutes-style interview to revive his reputation.
Needless to say, when Epstein was indicted and subsequently committed suicide in jail it greatly complicated these plans. When Bannon was later asked about this, he claimed the interview training tapes were actually footage he was compiling for a takedown exposé on all of Epstein’s evil and debauched behavior.
I wrote about this and discussed it with various people back in September. And, unsurprisingly, the responses were all variations of WTF? and, How haven’t I heard about this? Listening to the Wolff interviews, it didn’t even seem to be much of a secret. I think they actually played some clips of those prep interviews. Indeed, in 2021 The New York Post got access to a few clips as part of what Bannon then was claiming was a documentary he would soon release called “The Monsters,” an expose about Epstein’s pedophilia network and the elite. Yes, you got that right — he was planning on repurposing his prep sessions to help Epstein as a takedown documentary about Epstein.
Charen basically makes this same point. How is this not a bigger deal in the political world of DC where Bannon remains a major, major player in the MAGA Cinematic Universe? The big tranche of Epstein emails, which have already singed many public figures and — rightly — scorched what remains of Lawrence Summers’s public reputation to a crisp, are full of correspondence between Bannon and Epstein. The messages confirm and round out Bannon’s close relationship with Epstein and his work to reintroduce Epstein to the public as a perhaps roguish but generally solid guy. Charen marshals some wonderful research. She quotes Bannon on his podcast excoriating the sinister cabal and “ops” behind Epstein and his elite enablers, not long before telling Epstein himself that all the stories popping up in the press about him being a pedophile were also “ops” and part of a conspiracy against him.
Stuff like this is a reminder that what I’m describing here is mostly a media story. It’s no huge surprise that Bannon is an utter sleazebag or someone with a high tolerance for sexual predators. I confess to being perversely wowed by the brazen shamelessness of the switcheroo. But that’s another story. What’s kind of mystifying is how little Bannon or his Epstein image rehab doc project has gotten in the furor over the Epstein emails. It’s not that it’s gone unnoticed. The presence of Bannon-Epstein emails got at least a mention in many reports. But not the sheer volume or really the substance. Indeed, the press reports I was able to find about the image rehab doc tend to be in the entertainment press, like this one in The Hollywood Reporter. There’s much less in the political press.
This is noteworthy first because Bannon is a major figure in national politics. But second because by 2019 Bannon was very much back in Trump’s good graces. There’s a very decent chance that Trump knew Bannon was working to rehabilitate Epstein at the time. Regardless it remains a wild example of the double standards of the national media and how enveloped Epstein’s top critics were with his own corruption.
It sounds like Dye chose to jump ship, and wasn’t squeezed out (as
it seems with former AI chief John Giannandrea earlier this
week). Gurman/Bloomberg are spinning this like a coup for Meta
(headline: “Apple Design Executive Alan Dye Poached by Meta in
Major Coup”), but I think this is the best personnel news at Apple
in decades. Dye’s decade-long stint running Apple’s software
design team has been, on the whole, terrible — and rather than
getting better, the problems have been getting worse.
Dye’s replacement at Apple is longtime Apple designer Stephen Lemay. I’ve never met Lemay (or at least can’t recall meeting him), and prior to today never heard much about him. But that’s typical for Apple employees. Part of the job working for Apple is remaining under the radar and out of the public eye. What I’ve learned today is that Lemay, very much unlike Dye, is a career interface/interaction designer. Sources I’ve spoken to who’ve worked with Lemay at Apple speak highly of him, particularly his attention to detail and craftsmanship. Those things have been sorely lacking in the Dye era. Not everyone loves everything Lemay has worked on, but nobody bats 1.000 and designers love to critique each other’s work. I’ve chatted with people with criticisms of specific things Lemay has worked on or led at Apple (e.g. aspects of iPadOS multitasking that struck many of us as deliberately limiting, rather than empowering), but everyone I’ve spoken to is happy — if not downright giddy — at the news that Lemay is replacing Dye. Lemay is well-liked personally and deeply respected talent-wise. Said one source, in a position to know the choices, “I don’t think there was a better choice than Lemay.”
The sentiment within the ranks at Apple is that today’s news is almost too good to be true. People had given up hope that Dye would ever get squeezed out, and no one expected that he’d just up and leave on his own. (If you care about design, there’s nowhere to go but down after leaving Apple. What people overlooked is the obvious: Alan Dye doesn’t actually care about design.)
What I struggled with in the wake of today’s news is how to square the following contradiction:
Dye apparently left for Meta on his own; he wasn’t squeezed out.
Apple replacing Dye with Lemay seemingly signals a significant shift in direction, replacing a guy whose approach was almost entirely superficial/visual with a guy who’s spent his entire career sweating actual interaction details.
If Apple’s senior leadership would have been happy to have Dye remain as leader of Apple’s software design teams, why didn’t they replace him with a Dye acolyte? Conversely, if the decision makers at Apple saw the need for a directional change, why wasn’t Dye pushed out?2
The answer, I think, is that the decision to elevate Lemay wasn’t about direction, but loyalty. Why risk putting in a Dye-aligned replacement when that person might immediately get poached too? We know, from this year’s AI recruitment battles, that Zuckerberg is willing to throw almost unfathomable sums of money to poach talent he wants to hire from competitors. Gurman reported that Billy Sorrentino, a Dye deputy who has served as a senior director of design at Apple since 2016, is leaving for Meta with Dye.3 I don’t have any other names, but word on the street is that other members of Dye’s inner circle are leaving Apple for Meta with him. But those who remain — or who might remain, if they’d have been offered the promotion to replace Dye — simply can’t be trusted from the perspective of senior leadership, who were apparently blindsided by Dye’s departure for Meta. They wouldn’t have given Dye a prime spot in the WWDC keynote if they thought he might be leaving within months.
So the change in direction we may see — that many of us desperately hope to see — under Lemay’s leadership might be happenstance. More a factor of Lemay being politically safe, as someone predating Dye and outside Dye’s inner circle at Apple, than from Tim Cook or anyone else in senior leadership seeing a need for a directional change in UI design. But happenstance or not, it could be the best thing to happen to Apple’s HI design in the entire stretch since Steve Jobs’s passing and Scott Forstall’s ouster.
Putting Alan Dye in charge of user interface design was the one big mistake Jony Ive made as Apple’s Chief Design Officer.4 Dye had no background in user interface design — he came from a brand and print advertising background. Before joining Apple, he was design director for the fashion brand Kate Spade, and before that worked on branding for the ad agency Ogilvy. His promotion to lead Apple’s software interface design team under Ive happened in 2015, when Apple was launching Apple Watch, their closest foray into the world of fashion. It might have made some sense to bring someone from the fashion/brand world to lead software design for Apple Watch, but it sure didn’t seem to make sense for the rest of Apple’s platforms. And the decade of Dye’s HI leadership has proven it.
The most galling moment in Dye’s entire tenure was the opening of this year’s iPhone event keynote in September, which began with a title card showing the oft-cited Jobs quote “Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works.” The whole problem with the Dye era of HI design at Apple is that it has so largely — not entirely, but largely — been driven purely by how things look. There are a lot of things in Apple’s software — like app icons — that don’t even look good any more. But it’s the “how it works” part that has gone so horribly off the rails. Alan Dye seems like exactly the sort of person Jobs was describing in the first part of that quote: “People think it’s this veneer — that the designers are handed this box and told, ‘Make it look good!’”
I am not a Liquid Glass hater. I actually think, on the whole, iOS 26 is a better and more usable UI than iOS 18. But MacOS 26 Tahoe is a mess, visually, and I’m not sure there’s a single thing about its UI that is better than MacOS 15 Sequoia. There are new software features in Tahoe that are excellent and serve as legitimate enticements to upgrade. But I’m talking about the user interface — the work from Alan Dye’s HI team, not Craig Federighi’s teams. I think the fact that Liquid Glass is worse on MacOS than it is on iOS is not just a factor of iOS being Apple’s most popular, most profitable, most important platform — and thus garnering more of Apple’s internal attention. I think it’s also about the fact that the Mac interface, with multiple windows, bigger displays, and more complexity, demands more nuanced, more expert, interaction design skills. Things like depth, layering, and unambiguous indications of input focus are important aspects of any platform. But they’re more important on the platform which, by design, shoulders more complexity. Back in 2010, predicting a bright future for the Mac at a time when many pundits were thinking Apple would soon put the entire platform out to pasture, I wrote, “It’s the heaviness of the Mac that allows iOS to remain light.” That remains as true today as it was 15 years ago. But Liquid Glass, especially as expressed on MacOS, is a lightweight poorly considered design system as a whole, and its conceptual thinness is not sufficient to properly allow the Mac to carry the weight it needs to bear.
Perhaps more tellingly, there should have been no need for the “clear/tinted” Liquid Glass preference setting that Apple added in the 26.1 OS releases. Alan Dye wasn’t fired, by all accounts, but that preference setting was as good a sign as any that he should have been. And it’s very much a sign that inside Apple, there’s a strong enough contingent of people who prioritize how things work — like, you know, whether you can read text against the background of an alert — to get a setting like this shipped, outside the Accessibility section of Settings.
It remains worrisome that Apple needed to luck into Dye leaving the company. But fortune favors the prepared, and Apple remains prepared by having an inordinate number of longtime talented HI designers at the company. The oddest thing about Alan Dye’s stint leading software design is that there are, effectively, zero design critics who’ve been on his side. The debate regarding Apple’s software design over the last decade isn’t between those on Dye’s side and those against. It’s only a matter of debating how bad it’s been, and how far it’s fallen from its previous remarkable heights. It’s rather extraordinary in today’s hyper-partisan world that there’s nearly universal agreement amongst actual practitioners of user-interface design that Alan Dye is a fraud who led the company deeply astray. It was a big problem inside the company too. I’m aware of dozens of designers who’ve left Apple, out of frustration over the company’s direction, to work at places like LoveFrom, OpenAI, and their secretive joint venture io. I’m not sure there are any interaction designers at io who aren’t ex-Apple, and if there are, it’s only a handful. From the stories I’m aware of, the theme is identical: these are designers driven to do great work, and under Alan Dye, “doing great work” was no longer the guiding principle at Apple. If reaching the most users is your goal, go work on design at Google, or Microsoft, or Meta. (Design, of course, isn’t even a thing at Amazon.) Designers choose to work at Apple to do the best work in the industry. That has stopped being true under Alan Dye. The most talented designers I know are the harshest critics of Dye’s body of work, and the direction in which it’s been heading.
Back in June, after WWDC, I quoted from Alan Dye’s introduction of Liquid Glass during the keynote, and then quoted from Steve Jobs’s introduction of Aqua when he unveiled the Mac OS X Public Beta in January 2000. I wrote:
Re-watching Jobs’s introduction of Aqua for the umpteenth time, I
still find it enthralling. I found Alan Dye’s introduction of
Liquid Glass to be soporific, if not downright horseshitty.
One of the bits from Jobs’s Aqua introduction I quoted was this:
This is what the top of windows look like. These three buttons
look like a traffic signal, don’t they? Red means close the
window. Yellow means minimize the window. And green means maximize
the window. Pretty simple. And tremendous fit and finish in this
operating system. When you roll over these things, you get those.
You see them? And when you are no longer the key window, they go
transparent. So a lot of fit and finish in this.
After I published that post, I got a note from a designer friend who left Apple, in frustration, a few years ago. After watching Jobs’s Aqua introduction for the first time in years, he told me, “I’m really struck by Steve directly speaking to ‘radio buttons’ and ‘the key window’.” He had the feeling that Dye and his team looked down on interface designers who used terms like Jobs himself once used — in a public keynote, no less. That to Dye’s circle, such terms felt too much like “programmer talk”. But the history of Apple (and NeXT) user interface design is the opposite. Designers and programmers used to — and still should — speak the exact same language about such concepts. Steve Jobs certainly did, and something feels profoundly broken about that disconnect under Alan Dye’s leadership. It’s like the head of cinematography for a movie telling the camera team to stop talking about nerdy shit like “f-stops”. The head of cinematography shouldn’t just abide talking about f-stops and focal lengths, but love it. Said my friend to me, regarding his interactions with Dye and his team at Apple, “I swear I had conversations in which I mentioned ‘key window’ and no one knew what I meant.”
That won’t be a problem with Stephen Lemay. Understanding of fundamental principles will no longer be lacking. Lemay has been at Apple spanning the gamut between the Greg Christie/Bas Ording glory days and the current era. At the very least, Lemay running HI should stop the bleeding — both in terms of work quality and talent retention. I sincerely believe things might measurably improve, but I’m more sure that things will stop getting worse. That alone will be a win for everyone — even though the change was seemingly driven by Mark Zuckerberg’s desire to poach Dye, not Tim Cook and Apple’s senior leadership realizing they should have shitcanned him long ago.
Alan Dye is not untalented. But his talents at Apple were in politics. His political skill was so profound that it was his decision to leave, despite the fact that his tenure is considered a disaster by actual designers inside and outside the company. He obviously figured out how to please Apple’s senior leadership. His departure today landed as a total surprise because his stature within the company seemed so secure. And so I think he might do very well at Meta. Not because he can bring world-class interaction design expertise — because he obviously can’t — but because the path to success at Meta has never been driven by design. It’s about getting done what Zuck wants done. Dye might excel at that. Dye was an anchor holding Apple back, but might elevate design at Meta.5
Titles are just titles, and title inflation is a real problem at all big companies. But I always thought C-level executives by definition report directly to the CEO. That that was the whole point of a “chief whatever officer” title versus “senior vice president of whatever”. But according to Mark Gurman’s exclusive report at Bloomberg breaking this whole story (emphasis added):
With the Dye hire, Meta is creating a new design studio and
putting him in charge of design for hardware, software and AI
integration for its interfaces. He will be reporting to Chief
Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth, who oversees Reality Labs.
That group is tasked with developing wearable devices, such as
smart glasses and virtual reality headsets. Dye’s major focus will
be revamping Meta’s consumer devices with artificial intelligence
features.
If true, Dye doesn’t even report directly to Mark Zuckerberg. Oddly enough, after the retirement of COO Jeff Williams this year, Apple claimed the company’s design teams transitioned to reporting directly to CEO Tim Cook. ↩︎
And man oh man am I curious who was involved with this decision, who had Tim Cook’s ear, and just how quickly they were forced to make it. Part of what made Stephen Lemay a popular choice within Apple’s ranks is that Lemay, by all accounts I’ve heard, isn’t a political operator and never angled for a promotion to a level of this prominence. His focus has always singularly been on the work. ↩︎︎
Sorrentino was featured in a two-minute-plus segment in this year’s WWDC keynote, starting at the 38:25 mark, introducing the new iOS Visual Intelligence features. His star was rising at Apple. And Dye himself, of course, was given the spotlight to introduce and effectively take credit for Liquid Glass itself. At least until recently, no one at Apple saw this coming. ↩︎︎
I have good reason to believe that Ive, in private, would be the first person to admit that. A fan of Liquid Glass Jony Ive is not. I believe he sees Dye as a graphic designer, not a user interface designer — and not a good graphic designer at that. I don’t think Alan Dye could get a job as a barista at LoveFrom. ↩︎︎
It’s worth recalling that Zuckerberg sorta kinda tried this poach-design-talent-from-Apple thing before. Mike Matas, the wunderkind designer who became a sensation with Delicious Library in 2005, soon thereafter moved on to work at Apple, where he designed such things as the “slide to unlock” interface on the original iPhone. Matas was a key designer on that glorious first version of the iPhone’s OS. He then left Apple and formed Push Pop Press, and wound up at Facebook in 2011 after Facebook acquired Push Pop — before it had even shipped its core product. (I saw a still-in-development version of Push Pop’s publishing system in 2011, before Facebook bought them and shut down the product, and it remains to this day one of the most impressive, exciting, “this is the future” demos I’ve ever seen. It’s not merely a shame but a goddamn tragedy that it never even shipped.) Zuckerberg wound up assembling around Matas an entire little superteam of “Delicious” era designers and design-focused developers. That team wound up shipping Facebook Paper in 2014 — an iOS-exclusive alternative client for Facebook that espoused the same principles of elegance, exquisite attention to detail, and, especially, direct manipulation of content in lieu of user interface chrome, that infused Push Pop Press’s publishing system. Facebook Paper was so good it almost — almost — made me sign up for a Facebook account just so I could use it. But Facebook Paper went nowhere, fast. Zuckerberg lost his boner for “design”, Facebook Paper was pulled from the App Store in 2016, and the team behind Paper disbanded.
Matas today works at LoveFrom, and remains, to my mind, one of the most singularly talented and interesting people in the field of interaction design. In some closer-to-ideal alternate universe, Matas would be running HI design at Apple today. ↩︎︎
Back in July, I was lucky enough to have my friend Louie Mantia on The Talk Show to talk about Liquid Glass and (as I wrote in the show notes) “the worrisome state of Apple’s UI design overall”. This was probably my favorite episode of the show all year, and I think it holds up extremely well now that we’re all using Liquid Glass, across Apple’s platforms, in release versions.
Included in the show notes was a link to Mantia’s essay making his case against Dye’s decade-long stint leading Apple’s UI design teams, “A Responsibility to the Industry”, which began thus:
Firstly, I maintain that it makes absolutely no sense that Alan
Dye has the power he has, because he simply has no taste. But
what’s worse is that he wields that power so clumsily, so
carelessly. And because it goes unchallenged, unchecked by someone
higher than him, the entire industry suffers the consequences.
Washington is stepping into the 2025-26 season with a full-on youth movement, but not the “tear it down and hope” kind. The Wizards are mixing top-end young talent with veteran structure, and the question isn’t just whether they can be exciting — it’s whether they can finally be steady. After years near the bottom, the franchise is asking its next wave to turn flashes into habits, and to show measurable, repeatable growth across the season.
The Youth-Led Pivot Entering 2025-26
Washington’s front office is treating 2025-26 as a true pivot year in the rebuild: still focused on development, but finally expecting consistency to show up on the floor. They are coming off an 18-64 record in 2024-25, 15th in the East, missing the playoffs again. That was a modest improvement from 15-67 the season before, but the bigger story was how far they still sat from respectability. The team was outscored by 12.4 points per game, and rookies logged 35% of the total minutes, a clear indicator that the organization had already handed out the keys to youth. The message now is simple: the same opportunities must produce steadier outcomes.
The Baseline Numbers the Wizards Must Beat
Those 2024-25 numbers aren’t just history; they’re the measuring stick. Eighteen wins and a double-digit negative margin aren’t the kind of results you talk around — they define the urgency. The Wizards don’t need to jump straight into contention for this season to be a win, but they do need to stop living in extremes. Competitive losses sustained defensive effort, fewer late-game collapses, and visible growth from October through April are all part of the expectation. If they repeat an 18-64-level performance with the same mistakes, the rebuild risks stalling. This year is about making the floor higher, not only raising the ceiling.
A Starting Lineup Designed for Growth
The expected starters underline how intentional the plan is: CJ McCollum at point guard, Bub Carrington at shooting guard, Cam Whitmore at small forward, Khris Middleton at power forward, and Alex Sarr at center. That mix is deliberate — a veteran guard to organize the offense, another veteran wing to stabilize possessions, and young athletes surrounding them with real responsibilities. The aim isn’t survival basketball; it’s a nightly structure that allows young players to learn by repeating the same reads and roles. Consistency never arrives if a team is reinventing itself every two weeks, so Washington is leaning into stability by design.
Depth Chart Signals a Long Youth Runway
Behind the starters, the second unit remains youth-heavy: Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Corey Kispert, Justin Champagnie, and Marvin Bagley III, with additional depth from Kyshawn George, Malaki Branham, Will Riley, Tristan Vukcevic, Anthony Gill, and Sharife Cooper. That’s a lot of under-24 talent playing in real rotation slots, not parked on the bench. The key here is volume of meaningful minutes. Washington isn’t dabbling in development; they’re living in it. The lineup depth suggests the organization wants to test combinations but eventually narrow them into dependable groupings that can defend, rebound, and execute without wild swings in effort.
A Young Core with Big Talk and Real Tools
Inside the locker room, belief is loud. Bub Carrington has gone on record saying Washington has a top-five young core — “Yes, and it’s not even close.” Whether that proves true depends on growth meeting reality. The core is built around defense, size, and modern skill sets: Bilal Coulibaly already draws praise for elite defensive impact, Alex Sarr and Tristan Vukcevic are 7-foot centers with three-level scoring tools, and Carrington plus Kyshawn George are viewed as tough two-way competitors. The front office also holds four first-round picks in the 2025 and 2026 drafts, so talent accumulation isn’t slowing. Now the focus turns from stockpiling to polishing.
The Hard Truth: No Star Yet
For all the youthful promise, the Wizards still face a blunt reality: their extremely young core hasn’t yet produced a star. That matters because teams without a clear top option often ride waves — hot one night, invisible the next. The rebuild’s next stage requires at least one player to cross over from “interesting” to “engine,” someone defenses have to game-plan for every night. Washington doesn’t need that transformation to happen overnight, but it does need to start showing up this season. Until that level of hierarchy forms on its own, consistency will remain fragile, because responsibility keeps shifting with matchups instead of being anchored by a dependable centerpiece.
Offseason Moves That Fit the Timeline
Washington’s offseason was busy and clearly aligned with youth-first thinking. They re-signed Anthony Gill, and Khris Middleton returned after exercising his player option. They added Marvin Bagley III in free agency. They also brought in Malaki Branham, CJ McCollum, and Cam Whitmore via trades. On draft night, they landed Tre Johnson at No. 6 overall, Will Riley at No. 21 overall (acquired through a trade), and Jamir Watkins at No. 43 overall. Departures included Saddiq Bey, Malcolm Brogdon, Richaun Holmes leaving for overseas, Jordan Poole, Marcus Smart being waived, and Blake Wesley being waived. The direction is clear: real minutes for young players, guided by seasoned pros.
Alex Sarr as the Two-Way Anchor
Alex Sarr is the most obvious internal swing factor. The 2024 No. 2 overall pick averaged 13.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game as a rookie. After the All-Star break, he climbed to almost 16 points per game, hinting that his offense is catching up to his defensive value. Washington sees him as foundational: a modern big who protects the rim, moves well, and can grow into heavier usage without losing efficiency. If Sarr can sustain that post-break level across a full season, the Wizards gain a nightly defensive base — and that alone can cut into a 12.4-point negative margin.
Wings That Must Turn Talent Into Habits
The wing group is where Washington can either stabilize or wobble. Coulibaly’s defense already travels every night; the next step is offensive steadiness, so he doesn’t disappear for stretches. Carrington’s confidence sets up the emotional tone, but he needs to back it with disciplined playmaking and consistent shot selection. Cam Whitmore is expected to jump near the top of the scoring ladder immediately, which makes his efficiency and defensive focus crucial. This is the classic young-wing challenge: turning athletic bursts into routine production. If the wings defend, rebound, and make simple winning plays regularly, the Wizards stop being matchup-dependent.
Tre Johnson and the Scoring Ceiling
Tre Johnson enters as the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 draft, and Washington views him as a player they can build around. The expectation is that his shooting and creation don’t come slowly — the team believes he can impact the offense early. That’s why NBA projections lean on Johnson as a spacing and scoring stabilizer: the Wizards want fewer nights where offense looks random and more possessions where structure produces clean looks. If he translates quickly, he not only raises the ceiling but makes the floor steadier because defenses must respect him. His development arc is one of the season’s biggest markers.
Veteran Mentorship as Structure, Not Decoration
CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton are not on this roster as symbolic leaders. McCollum is 34, a former National Basketball Players Association president for four years, and he’s expected to start while guiding a team with 12 players under age 24. Middleton, back on a player option year, gives Washington another reliable professional who has lived through playoff stakes and understands nightly preparation. Their role is to teach consistency through habits: pace control, late-game reads, defensive communication, and emotional steadiness when runs happen. Coach Brian Keefe, entering year three, must balance their stabilizing minutes without blocking young reps.
What Meaningful Consistency Looks Like by April 2026
Washington does not need to leap from 18 wins to contention for this to feel like a successful season. But the progress has to be tangible. That means shrinking the 12.4-point negative margin, cutting down blowout frequency, and seeing young players perform at similar levels against different types of opponents. It means rotations stabilizing, not constantly shifting. It means Sarr holding post-All-Star production all year, Johnson forcing defenses to adjust, and the wings delivering dependable two-way effort. If those things happen, the Wizards become competitive night to night — the first real sign that this patient rebuild is turning potential into consistency.
Winter in New York brings conditions that can make every day walking more dangerous. Snow can build up on sidewalks and parking areas and create hidden layers of ice. Cold nights can freeze small puddles and turn them into slick surfaces by morning. Property owners may not clear paths fast enough which increases the chance of falling. Many surfaces become uneven during winter storms which makes movement less steady. These problems highlight why winter slip and fall safety guidance matters for people getting around during the colder months.
Snow Covered Walking Areas
Snow is one of the most common winter hazards in New York. When snow piles up it can hide holes and cracks that make walking risky. Packed snow becomes slippery when it settles and many people lose their balance on these surfaces. Property owners must keep walkways clear because heavy foot traffic can make snow smooth and slick. Even small piles of snow near doorways or steps can lead to accidents. As more people rush indoors snow carried inside can melt on floors and create new hazards.
Black Ice On Sidewalks And Entryways
Black ice forms when thin layers of water freeze into a clear sheet. It blends with the ground which makes it hard to notice. Winters in New York create perfect conditions for this type of ice when temperatures drop at night. Many falls occur in the early morning when this ice has not yet melted. Entryways also become problem areas because warm air from inside buildings causes moisture that later freezes near the doors. Without quick cleanup this ice can lead to painful injuries.
Frozen Parking Lots And Outdoor Steps
Parking lots become slippery when snow and moisture freeze after plowing. Cars push snow into new patterns that freeze again and create uneven ground. Drivers stepping out of their vehicles often land on slick spots and lose their balance. Outdoor steps can be even more dangerous because melted snow flows down each step and freezes again. When these surfaces are not salted or cleared promptly the risk of falling grows. Simple actions like wearing shoes with strong traction can help reduce these dangers.
Melting Snow Near Buildings
Melting snow creates puddles that freeze again as temperatures drop. These small patches of ice appear near curbs and building entrances where snow tends to collect. People often overlook these areas because the ice forms in thin layers. When the surface refreezes it becomes as slick as glass. Building managers must pay attention to these spots to prevent accidents. Sand or salt helps keep the ground stable until the weather warms up.
Poor Lighting During Winter Months
Winter days are shorter which means many people walk in dim light during morning and evening hours. Poor lighting makes it harder to see ice or frozen patches on the ground. Shadows from buildings and vehicles can hide dangerous areas. Walkways that are not well lit create more risk because people cannot see changes in the surface. Bright and steady lighting helps people move safely in winter conditions. Even small improvements can make outdoor areas safer for daily use.
Winter hazards in New York can cause serious slip and fall injuries when walkways are not taken care of. Snow ice and melting slush all create unstable ground that affects people in busy areas throughout the city. Clearing surfaces early and keeping them maintained can reduce many of these risks. Taking care during winter helps protect people in New York as they navigate the city during the colder months.
Since the beginning of the project in 2023 and the private beta days of Ghostty, I've repeatedly expressed my intention that Ghostty legally become a non-profit. [...]
I want to squelch any possible concerns about a "rug pull". A non-profit structure provides enforceable assurances: the mission cannot be quietly changed, funds cannot be diverted to private benefit, and the project cannot be sold off or repurposed for commercial gain. The structure legally binds Ghostty to the public-benefit purpose it was created to serve. [...]
I believe infrastructure of this kind should be stewarded by a mission-driven, non-commercial entity that prioritizes public benefit over private profit. That structure increases trust, encourages adoption, and creates the conditions for Ghostty to grow into a widely used and impactful piece of open-source infrastructure.
I wrote up the new pattern I'm using for my various Python project repos to make them as easy to hack on with uv as possible. The trick is to use a PEP 735 dependency group called dev, declared in pyproject.toml like this:
[dependency-groups]
dev = ["pytest"]
With that in place, running uv run pytest will automatically install that development dependency into a new virtual environment and use it to run your tests.
This means you can get started hacking on one of my projects (here datasette-extract) with just these steps:
git clone https://github.com/datasette/datasette-extract
cd datasette-extract
uv run pytest
The Mississippi flood of 1927 was one of America’s greatest natural disasters. Some 27,000 square miles were inundated, in some cases by 30 feet of water. Hundreds, maybe thousands, died — many of the victims were poor and Black, and their deaths went unrecorded. Around 700,000 people were displaced — equivalent to about 2 million people today, adjusting for population growth.
How did America respond? Initially, President Calvin Coolidge was adamantly opposed to any federal role in disaster relief, declaring that “The Government is not an insurer of its citizens against the hazard of the elements.” His refusal to provide aid was, however, deeply unpopular, and he eventually gave in to demands from Congress to deliver government aid.
Ever since that catastrophic flood, providing government aid to the victims of natural disasters has been an integral part of the American Way: federal aid to disaster victims became the norm after the Mississippi flood. Yet it was often a haphazard, uncoordinated process until 1979, when the federal response to natural disasters was consolidated under the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Since then FEMA has become a well-established part of the American social safety net, especially in the face of worsening climate catastrophes. Americans have come to rely on FEMA as a first line of support after disasters. And when FEMA was seen to be falling down on the job, as it did after Hurricane Katrina virtually destroyed New Orleans in 2005, Americans were angry. The fact is, they want FEMA to be better, not smaller. In a July poll, only 9 percent of Americans wanted to see FEMA eliminated, and only another 10 percent wanted to see its budget cut.
Donald Trump, however, believes that he knows better than the majority of Americans. In June he announced his intention to dismantle FEMA and force the states to assume responsibility for disaster relief. While Trump publicly backed down after an intense public backlash, in practice he is gutting FEMA nonetheless. He is drastically scaling back federal emergency aid, even for communities in which the need for federal assistance is overwhelming.
The latest example of Trump’s stiffing those in need is in rural northern Michigan, where the power grid suffered severe damage from an ice storm last March. Rebuilding the power lines will cost thousands of dollars for each household served by the region’s power cooperatives. Without outside help, that cost will have to be paid by the cooperatives’ customers, a huge burden on a relatively poor part of the state. Yet FEMA has turned down the state’s request for aid, in an unprecedented break with past policies.
Adding further injury to Michiganders, who – by the way – voted to deliver the presidency to Donald Trump in 2024, the Trump administration has ordered another Michigan utility to keep an aging, unneeded, highly polluting coal-fired power plant operating, at a cost to ratepayers of $113 million so far, and ongoing at $615,000 per day.
Trump tried, unsuccessfully, to withhold wildfire aid from California unless it adopted voter ID. He has also tried to divert aid away from states that, in his view, aren’t cooperating with his immigration policies, although the courts stopped him. But the storm-hit areas that he is currently refusing to help are, or plausibly “were”, Trump country. The map on the left shows the areas covered by different Michigan electricity utilities; #3 and #7 are the utilities seeking FEMA aid. The map on the right shows the 2024 presidential vote by county, with deeper red corresponding to a higher Trump share:
Since this is not another case of Trump’s political retribution, what lies behind the denial of aid? I believe that it is a knee-jerk dominance display on Trump’s part. Whenever someone comes to him in need, whether its Volodomyr Zelensky, helpless African children dependent on USAID, or rural Michiganers, his cruelty is activated. And he likes surrounding himself with those of the same ilk: Stephen Miller, Pete Hegseth, and Kristi Noem, the secretary of homeland security, who impeded and slow-walked the emergency response to deadly Texas flooding back in July.
But that’s not all: there’s also an ideological component. The pre-Trump typical conservative argument against government aid restricted itself to programs like food stamps. The usual suspects fulminate against those who need help putting food on the table, asserting that it’s because they have chosen to be poor. In the conservative ideology of Ronald Reagan, helping the poor relieves them of individual responsibility and only makes them lazy.
But those old-time conservatives also recognized a difference between being the victim of a natural disaster and being impoverished. In their view, nobody chooses to have an ice storm or a hurricane. And helping to re-build entire communities didn’t, in their view, encourage sloth.
But that was conservatism then and this is Trumpism now. The fact is that disaster relief runs counter to the libertarian ideology embraced by tech bros like Peter Thiel. In the world of the libertarian tech broligarchy, who believe that they should be running things rather than be constrained by democracy, selfishness is a virtue. Hence they don’t believe that their tax dollars should be used to help others, even when those others are victims of circumstances beyond their control. Oh, that is, unless you are a wealthy Silicon Valley type with deposits at the failed Silicon Valley Bank. They apparently had no problem with a federal bailout of SVB.
In fact, the libertarian tech broligarchy is opposed to the very impulse to care about other people. “The fundamental weakness of Western civilization,” declared Elon Musk last March, “is empathy.”
And let’s not forget — because conservatives never do — that there’s a deeper strategy at play: if you want people to despise and hate government, you don’t want them to see the government doing anything that clearly helps people.
So American victims of natural disasters are being abandoned by Trump. That abandonment reflects his personal cruelty and that of those around him, as well as the ideological allegiance to cruelty among the libertarian tech broligarchy. And the resulting message is clear. Trump to disaster victims, wherever they live and whoever they voted for: Drop dead.
A rideshare accident can create confusion for anyone involved. Many people struggle to understand who may be responsible after a crash caused by a rideshare driver. The driver might be at fault but other parties could also share responsibility. Each situation depends on what happened in the moments before the impact. Victims often turn to Ellis Injury Law for guidance during this stressful time. These cases involve many moving parts and need careful review so the right parties are held accountable.
The Role of the Rideshare Driver
The rideshare driver is usually the first person examined when an accident happens. The driver may be liable if distraction poor judgment or unsafe driving caused the crash. A driver who ignores traffic rules or fails to pay attention to the road may be held responsible. Many accidents start with simple errors that quickly escalate into serious harm. When a driver acts with disregard for safety their actions can form the basis of a claim. Evidence from the scene helps show whether the driver acted in a careless way.
Company Responsibility for Driver Actions
There are times when the rideshare company may share liability for a crash. If the driver was logged into the app and available for passengers the company may have an interest in the accident. The company could be at fault if it didn’t check the driver’s background or prioritize passenger safety. Situations where a company overlooks past issues may open the door to wider responsibility. Company policies play a major role in understanding liability. This is why the accident must be reviewed from every angle.
The Impact of Third Party Drivers
Some crashes occur because another driver caused the event. Another driver may be at fault if they drove carelessly and caused the crash with the rideshare car. This may include speeding sudden stops or ignoring traffic control. When another driver sets off the chain of events they may be held accountable for damages. Every driver on the road must act with care. If a third party fails in that duty they can become a key part of the claim.
Fault Linked to Unsafe Vehicle Conditions
Mechanical problems can also play a role in a rideshare accident. A car that has worn parts or poor maintenance may not operate safely. If a failure occurs at the wrong time the driver may lose control and cause a crash. Responsibility may shift to a repair shop if the shop completed poor work or overlooked an issue. Liability may also extend to a manufacturer if a defect played a part in the collision. Vehicle condition is an important factor that must always be reviewed.
How Evidence Shapes Liability
Evidence often guides the process of identifying responsible parties. Records from the rideshare app can show whether the driver was active and what actions they took before the crash. Witness accounts help explain how events unfolded. Photos of damage the scene or road conditions add important details. When all evidence is examined together a clearer picture of liability forms. This helps create a stronger case for the injured person and ensures fairness in the process.
Liability in a rideshare accident can involve more than one party. The rideshare driver, the company, another driver, a repair shop, or even the maker of the car may share blame, depending on what went wrong. Understanding how these pieces fit together is important for anyone seeking fair compensation. Careful review and strong evidence help build a clear path forward. With the right support injured people can move toward recovery and hold the responsible parties accountable.
When asked on The Cheeky Pint podcast how we educate our children, my husband Casey Handmer replied “benign neglect.” It’s a cheeky answer that captures something real: we’re neither tiger nor helicopter parents. But after seven years and three kids (with a fourth on the way), we’ve developed a more deliberate approach. Here’s what we’ve learned.
The Family as a System
If I’ve taken anything away from seven years of parenting, it’s this: the family is a system. Treating it as such, rather than asking “is X better than Y?”, leads to more effective choices.
For working parents who want to scale both career and family, three system-level principles matter most:
Reliability is non-negotiable: Even in a flexible workplace, unexpected time off creates disadvantages and logistical hassles. Any out-of-home option needs backup childcare (nanny or easy-to-access service) for inconvenient hours, school breaks, and illnesses. The younger the child, the more frequently you’ll need backup.
Over-invest in childcare: Optimizing for convenience, reliability, and family-fit is worth spending more than you’d think, even more than one parent’s salary in extreme examples. This keeps both careers on growth trajectories, builds retirement savings, and makes having more children feel manageable rather than overwhelming. The cost of a nanny grows sublinearly with the number of children.
Scalability matters: Decisions that work for one child may not scale to two or three. Time spent driving to individual activities multiplies. Costs of private schooling multiply. We’ve consistently preferred options that work better as our family grows.
The Caveats
This blog details our family preferences alone, which also change over time as we grow in number and maturity. We’re two startup executives with three kids (7, 5, and 2) and a fourth on the way. Our children are somewhat precocious, but otherwise don’t have special needs thus far.
My intention is that this post may provide helpful inspiration to find or tune your own family preferences. If I’ve taken anything away from the past seven years of parenting, it is that it’s helpful to think in terms of global, rather than local, hill climbing towards a better situation. With that, let’s kick things off.
Infancy (Birth to Age 2): Swapping Daycare for Nanny
Emily Oster’s Cribsheet covers from birth through early preschool, and is an excellent data driven read. A key takeaway regarding these years is:
Relative to pregnancy, there are fewer things here where the data will tell you what to do or avoid. Your family preferences will be more central.
What this means is that very few specific interventions actually matter for outcomes on a statistical level. The items which do are the overall quality of parenting and family life.
As new parents in 2018, we had a lot to learn and had relatively simple criteria. Both of us wished to continue our careers with little interruption, so a parent staying at home was off the table. With that our initial considerations were:
Does it support both of us going back to work?
Is it convenient?
Is it sufficiently high quality and within our means?
One additional thing we tried to avoid was an abundance of electronic or “blinky” toys.
Childcare center
In the early days with our first child, we went with a child care center associated with JPL, the Children’s Educational Center, which fit the bill across the board. We both worked at JPL in person and it was just a minute away, on the way to work. I was able to visit at lunch to breastfeed. A fortunate accident of arriving on the CEC after our simple search was that as first time parents, we’ve since adopted much of their approach. They used a combination of RIE (Resources for Infant Educarers) and Montessori style methods as the children grew, as well as a focus on outdoor play even from the youngest age. Some key takeaways from their approach that we’ve consistently adopted:
Treating even the youngest infant as a unique human being, not as an object. This means talking to them, walking them through procedures, and sensitive observations of them to understand needs
Free movement vs seats, walkers swings or bouncers
Increasing independence through independent play and with meals (drinking early from cups, self feeding).
Open-ended, safe, passive toys.
Spending lots of time outside, with adequate sun protection.
We practice this at home too. Almost all of our house is freely accessible to all of our children, with adults only stuff kept either in a dedicated room or on higher shelves. Mattresses are initially on the floor and don’t have cot sides, only the stairs have gates for crawlers who haven’t yet learned how to safely descend. For infants, free movement means plenty of time on the floor where they can navigate independently. We also set things up generally such that the children can roam. There are no locks (outside of on unsafe areas like our office or garage). And after graduating from a bassinet, the children sleep on floor and later elevated beds they can get in and out of independently.
Although broader data doesn’t support this approach providing uniquely better outcomes than alternatives, thinking of the family as a system there are many key advantages for our family, that have shown up early but been enhanced as our family size grows.
Treating infants as humans makes caring for them more enjoyable, and makes it easier to spot their human needs and communication methods earlier
Talking to infants helps their language development and even before you could imagine they might understand, and seems to sooth them
Getting rid of dedicated entertainment and rather emphasizing observing (and intervening for safety) as the core parenting responsibility, makes parenting at this age more enjoyable. The infant will ask for attention when they need it, vs it being foisted upon them.
Self feeding and drinking from cups means mealtimes are more scalable.
Being able to get out of bed by themselves is easier for potty training and sibling interaction, and entertaining themselves on the rare occasion they wake before us.
The focus on simple toys means a house with aesthetic, useful, playthings that stand the test of time and span ages, appealing to our kids as they grow and even us as adults. Our favorites that begin at this age are magnetiles, blocks, a railway set, and duplo.
A scene from daycare – our eldest, then a baby, plays happily on the floor. Children sit on tables having meals (with light assistance) behind.
Why we switched to a nanny
With our subsequent children, we both had moved on from JPL; I worked remote and Casey quickly transitioned into an in person role leading his startup. Meanwhile, our income had grown along with the size of the family, so the costs and conveniences of a nanny came much closer to childcare, which ran us about $4000/month. We were able to hire a full time 1:1 caregiver, focused on ages 0-2, but available to assist with the other ages when out of school. With two (and soon to be more) children this more effectively supported us going back to work, was of the utmost convenience, was extremely high quality, and while expensive was within our means. The more children we had, the more this method made sense financially, logistically and emotionally, so we’ve “signed” our caregiver for the next 5 years or more.
Advantages of 1:1 care for our family system:
Attention sustainability: Neither Casey nor I can focus joyfully on an infant for their full waking hours. A professional who has chosen this calling can supplement our active attention.
Sibling time: When our nanny’s hours overlap with other children’s schedules, we can spend 1:1 time with the older kids.
Breastfeeding without pumping: Working from home with the infant at home made this seamless.
Zero transition friction: Dropoffs and pickups take seconds, no packing, no drama with a steady caregiver.
Household support: During nap times, our nanny helps with laundry, dishes, light cleaning, and inventory management. When we’re off work, we focus on children instead of chores.
Built-in backup care: As older children attend school, the nanny handles dropoffs, pickups, and care during scheduled or unscheduled days off.
99%+ work reliability: With kids in mixed settings, the chance someone is ill or off school is high. The nanny provides backup, so we consistently meet work commitments.
Upside for larger families: Without the short term difficulty of sole caregiving, we revel in family life, rejoice in our children, and want to have more! As we have more children, our childcare cost does not grow significantly. This means that once we’ve built this into our budget, having additional kids doesn’t substantially impact it further.
Infant Care Conclusion
Even considering the educational benefits of our childcare center, having experienced both, I’d choose a nanny for infants given the option. The emotional benefits for infant and parent, plus the system-level advantages, outweigh the learning benefits for first-time parents.
While the data is mixed whether communal care before preschool has positive, neutral, or negative impacts on outcome, some preschool starting around age two or three will improve the ease of transitioning to school (Cribsheet). Preschool could have a positive or negative impact on the family system depending on the setup. We again were influenced by our early childcare setting near work, which focused on outdoor play and child-led exploration. Some of the ways in which it aligned with our family’s focus were:
Social focus over academics: No drilling on letters, reading, or math. Our kids absorb academic content at home: we’re doing math, sounding out letters, and reading together. What they needed was learning to interact appropriately with peers and adults. Casey and I are unusual adults who didn’t have great social skills at that age, so this was the value-add. Plus, once academic focus starts for bright kids who are already “ahead,” it can be difficult to study alongside peers months or years behind. This has to start sometime, but there’s no reason it needs to before kindergarten.
Child-led exploration: with familiar routines and lots of self-directed play
Supervised risk-taking: cooking, climbing trees, jumping from heights
High quality staff with low turnover
No screens or “blinky” toys
Authoritative style: Authoritative parenting combines high expectations with high responsiveness: setting clear boundaries and rules while being warm, supportive, and responsive to the child’s needs and emotions. In contrast, other common styles include authoritarian which is high expectations/low responsiveness, and permissive is low expectations/high responsiveness.
Close proximity: 5-10 minutes drive or walking distance, so we don’t spend our lives in the car
How we found it: The NAEYC filter
When we needed something more local, we initially struck out. LA has social pressure for “feeder preschools” among our peer group, plus options with very different focuses, rigid schedules or heavy academic drilling.
In researching, I discovered our original preschool was NAEYC accredited. NAEYC accreditation is essentially a “gold standard” certification that preschools earn by meeting rigorous quality benchmarks focused on developmentally appropriate practices. Using this as a filter led us to a fantastic local option that happened to be a co-op.
The co-op advantage
In a co-op, parents volunteer in the classroom roughly three hours per week to supplement two lead teachers. There are day-consistent volunteers (I always took Wednesdays) with more responsibilities, and floaters who keep a general eye on things and escalate to permanent staff for anything major.
Compared to our previous preschool, the overall staff quality was higher especially post COVID. Parental volunteers were highly educated, empathetic parents who shared our philosophy (hence ending up at the same place), rather than entry-level staff. The permanent teachers had generally been there 10+ years. The atmosphere was more DIY, but they were excellent stewards of parent money, focusing on what matters for development over Instagram aesthetics.
Working from home with teams across the US, I shifted my schedule to start on East Coast hours a few days a week, stopping at close of business Pacific to accommodate Wednesday volunteering. Casey, lacking this flexibility, fulfilled his volunteer hours doing construction projects for the school.
Volunteering was sometimes tough work, but I got to see my kid and benefited from informal education in early childhood development watching the pros navigate the classroom. I’ve worked as a consistent volunteer in the 4-5 age classroom, the 3-4 age classroom, and soon the 2-3 age classroom. I’ll have learned all preschool ages firsthand.
Preschool Care Conclusion
Attending some preschool before formal schooling is probably good, but the data isn’t strong enough to stress if waiting makes more sense for your family. If you want a feeder school for private education or don’t have niche requirements, any school with good staff is probably fine.
If you have similar priorities to ours: play-focused, developmentally appropriate, searching for NAEYC accredited schools is an excellent starting point. Picking a school within 5-10 minutes of home has significant family-system advantages. If you can volunteer or participate in a co-op, the education in your own parenting development is valuable, and I believe investing time to volunteer at this stage benefits both parent and child more than volunteering at later stages.
Kindergarten and Elementary: Maximizing the “Typical School Experience”
Our kids track 1-4+ grades above in reading, math, and other core academics, with the gap seeming to accelerate over time. They remain grade-level in handwriting, social skills, executive functioning (homework and test-taking diligence), and rule-following.
Why we chose public school while we still can
We want to take advantage of the time when this gap is manageable to focus on grade-level skills and give them a “typical school experience” as long as possible. We expect their schooling will need to deviate from typical more in the future.
There’s a perception that parents drive the acceleration of kids tracking above grade level. My experience is the opposite: kids like this thirst and hunger for knowledge, so acceleration is kid-driven. You’d no more deny it to a child thirsting for it than you would a glass of water.
Our values driving our elementary school choice have been
Convenience: Close to home with minimal driving.
Typical experience: Age-similar peers, similar routines, focus on basics over bells and whistles.
Flexibility: Amenable to various options for academic acceleration so we can keep this mode of education as long as it makes sense.
Quality: Basic quality of educators and system, with good odds of matching with teachers who work well with our kids.
Cost: This is where our systems thinking diverged from preschool/infant care. Investing heavily in a nanny or preschool makes life easier on the whole family: worth every dollar. Private elementary school wouldn’t increase reliability or convenience for us while offering marginal educational benefit and decreased normalcy. A nanny benefits multiple children for approximately the same cost; private schooling scales up with each child. When private school offers significant educational benefit and normalcy is no longer possible anywhere, we might reconsider (stay tuned!).
How it’s working
We chose the local public school. It’s walking distance or a short drive, has good ratings (matched by our kids being paired with great teachers), and is approximately free. All teachers are trained in gifted education, and while we don’t expect their clustered grouping approach (as opposed to academic streaming) to be especially useful, teachers have been flexible and creative about differentiated options. Our eldest does math warmups two grades ahead and accesses curriculum three grades ahead during math study time. Our younger gets books tailored to her reading level, alongside kids in her classroom receiving more or less advanced material during reading time.
They’ve made friends, including some similarly curious kids. Much of their school time involves moving between activities, recess, and enrichment classes: art, gardening, PE, music, classroom runs, alongside handwriting, spelling, and socialization with age peers. That is to say, the majority of their day doesn’t require differentiated curriculum, and the portion which does they blend in well with others receiving the same (at higher or lower levels).
The homework approach
There have been hiccups. We weren’t paying attention to kindergarten homework with our eldest until he complained math was boring. When I looked, I realized we needed to give him challenges (see Enrichment section below). After providing after-school opportunities to learn math in a structured way, he hasn’t complained since. In later grades we paired with his teacher to provide some of these opportunities at school as well.
Homework continues to be straightforward for both children. We debated requesting or inventing more challenging homework but decided against it. Instead, we go deep on the homework they do have, focusing on executive functioning, diligence, and improving at-grade-level skills. The math may be straightforward, but writing answers clearly, checking work carefully, paying attention to details, and completing and turning it in on time may not be. Since it is straightforward, this typically doesn’t take much time for anyone involved, and the time invested seems worth it for the returns.
Why this works for our family system
Public school requires no driving logistics that multiply with family size, and costs nothing while our children can still thrive there. The kids are picking up key social skills in additional to their educational advances and have the opportunity to experience a rite of passage shared by most Americans.
Enrichment and Extracurriculars: Prioritizing Family Time
What we skip and why
We prioritize family time together, keeping weekends largely free. This means we can spend time as a family, taking advantage of the big family we’ve built, while keeping logistics manageable. Carting one child around from activity to activity can be overwhelming; carting a large family to individual activities can be prohibitive.
As simple as it sounds, this choice seems fairly unique among our friend group. As trivial an objection to scaling a family as it might seem (“Johnny never had a sister because we wanted him to play t-ball”), I get the sense it plays a huge factor when people with one or two heavily-scheduled kids say they could never imagine having a bigger family.
We opt out of group sports at elementary age. Families with sports as a core value would make different decisions. We do physical activities together: climbing, biking, hiking, walking, and physical play. We’ve had the fortune to move to a walkable community with sports options, so as the children grow older they can walk themselves to practices in areas of their interest.
What we offer at home
We focus enrichment activities on what’s available at home.
Piano A teacher comes once a week to our house and teaches our kids. We are a musical family and value the kids having piano as a foundation to electively build upon.
Math enrichment. While I prepare dinner, the older kids have the opportunity to self-study from books and online curricula. I’m available to mentor. It’s gotten to the point where my eldest enjoys mentoring my younger, which also cements concepts for him: win-win-win. We use a combination of:
Beast Academy: a math curriculum with comic books and online/offline options. It’s rigorous, creative, allows self-study, and is fun for our kids.
Adventures with Mr. Math: Zoom classes focusing on using analytical reasoning skills to solve difficult math problems and puzzles. This doesn’t teach math but rather teaches problem solving. The homework and coursework provide an awesome challenge.
Custom problems: We dive deep on exciting problems together some of which are hard for us to solve as mathematically advanced adults. The kids don’t always have the tools in their toolbox, but we approach them together.
Chess: Our eldest takes group chess classes at any level through International Chess Academy via Zoom. This wasn’t in the plan, but he participated in a chess activity at his homework club and when it was discontinued requested to find another option. We were delighted to stumble upon one online that has worked well
Strewing. We participate heavily in “strewing” both accidentally and on purpose:
Strewing is the intentional, casual placement of interesting materials (books, puzzles, art supplies, science kits, etc.) around the home environment where children will naturally encounter them. The key is that it’s done subtly—you’re creating an enriched environment without directing or requiring the child to engage with the materials.
We have a great variety of material on diverse topics at home and regularly visit the library to check out and strew more. As a result, we regularly hear “I’m sorry I got stuck in a book!” when following up on why a key activity (getting dressed, taking a shower, putting on shoes) wasn’t completed in a timely manner. There are worse problems to have.
Beast Academy – a math curriculum with comic books and online/offline options. It’s rigorous, it’s creative, it allows self study and it’s fun for our kids.
A Brief Note On Screen time
We take a selective approach to screen time, emphasizing tools over passive consumption, and focusing on moderation. The thinking: learning to use these powerful tools is a modern skill, and in the right contexts, they can function as an Illustrated Primerin service of personal growth and education. The kids use screens while in view.
Outside the home: No screens. Including none on roadtrips.
Passive media at home: We watch together occasionally: rocket launches, documentaries, Veritasium, chess videos, Mark Rober (limited: more edutainment than education), and other media of broad interest that is education adjacent. The kids don’t watch media alone.
Active learning with screens: Starting around age two, we introduced limited computer or iPad time.
Useful apps and sites we’ve found:
Ages 2-4:Khan Academy Kids on iPad. Free, ad-free content mixing fun with education. Extensive library of books with read-aloud option available offline.
Ages 4+:Beast Academy online options. The online version is particularly engaging and offers read-aloud mode for pre-fluent readers. The kids use the books as well, but when given the choice gravitate toward the computer version.
Post-fluency readers:Scratch.mit.edu for coding concepts, Replit for AI guided programming (limited, more edutainment than education), Google Colab for advanced coding concepts, Onshape for 3D printing, ChessKid for chess, Google Docs for typing and notes, Gmail for communicating with grandparents.
Finding resources: the Davidson community
I have a friend whose children seemed so similar to ours, we swapped educational tips frequently, and I have her to thank for stumbling upon many. On top of that, she introduced us to the Davidson Young Scholars community which offers a variety of free resources to families with gifted children as well as a community forum. Since her kids were eligible and seemed so similar to ours it was no surprise when we qualified as well. This has been helpful in seeing that there is no perfect educational fit for similar kids, as well as discovering new potential enrichment areas.
Bottom line on enrichment
Our approach maximizes convenience (everything at home or via Zoom except one piano teacher visit), keeps weekends free, and scales well with family size. Kids pursue what interests them without the pressure or logistics of scheduled activities all over town.
We haven’t crossed this bridge yet as our children are solidly thriving in infant care, preschool, and elementary school. But based on the Davidson Forums and our research, beyond elementary is where things get complex, requiring a tapestry of approaches with none of the off-the-shelf options (whether private or public, gifted or not) being a perfect fit.
Our current thinking
We’re inspired by research including Bloom’s two sigma problem, the finding that students taught one-on-one with mastery learning perform two standard deviations better than students in traditional classrooms. We’re also drawn to the observation that high-quality 1:1 tutoring alongside self-directed learning can be significantly less expensive than private schooling.
We’re not setting aside money for private school at the middle school, high school, or college level. In our experience, this can be a family size limiter (“Jane never had a younger brother because we wanted her and siblings to signal high status by attending $40k/year schooling for a decade”). We expect to prefer investing that capital differently and forego status signaling, focusing on educational outcomes instead.
That said, for the right educational outcomes, we’d consider investing. Our priorities will likely be:
Actual learning over credentialing: Brian Caplan’s The Case Against Education argues that the majority of education’s value at upper levels comes from signaling versus actual learning. We’re inclined to focus on the learning.
Kid -driven and kid-led: We expect our children’s education to be driven by our children’s needs, not our own desires for status or projections of our desires onto theirs.
Mix and match approaches: We expect to weave together coursework at various levels, 1:1 tutoring, self-directed study, and possibly dual enrollment or online options.
Maintaining social connection: Whatever we do, we want our kids to have peers and community, not just academic advancement in isolation.
Flexibility as needs evolve: What works at 12 may not work at 15. We’re prepared to adjust.
We don’t have it all figured out
We’re learning from families a few years ahead of us and staying open to creative solutions. I’ll write an update to this blog when we have more life experience to back up our initial thoughts.
Infancy: Nanny or 1:1 caregiver if you can swing it. Daycare also works fine developmentally, pick one you can learn from and have backup childcare options.
Elementary: Local public school if it matches your values. We considered this when choosing where to live.
Enrichment and Extracurriculars:Prioritize family time over individual extracurriculars. Offer optional academic enrichment at home. Thoughtful, limited, supervised screen time.
Beyond Elementary: Mix and match schooling options focused on actual learning over credentialing. Weave in coursework at various levels and 1:1 tutoring rather than private school.
Who would have thought rockets and an internet in the sky, and not “cost-plus” either, would create the wealthiest person in the world? Ridiculous? Of course not. Or a private sector astronaut as NASA administrator. When I began this blog in 2021, my drive to put words down and toss them out there for the … Continue reading On soon-to-be Administrator Isaacman, R&D, and choices
Called up by Commissioner Pett, and with him by water, much against my will, to Deptford, and after drinking a warm morning draft, with Mr. Wood and our officers measuring all the morning his New England masts, with which sight I was much pleased for my information, though I perceive great neglect and indifference in all the King’s officers in what they do for the King.
That done, to the Globe, and there dined with Mr. Wood, and so by water with Mr. Pett home again, all the way reading his Chest accounts, in which I did see things did not please me; as his allowing himself 300l. for one year’s looking to the business of the Chest, and 150l. per annum for the rest of the years. But I found no fault to him himself, but shall when they come to be read at the Board.
We did also call at Limehouse to view two Busses that are building, that being a thing we are now very hot upon. Our call was to see what dimensions they are of, being 50 feet by the keel and about 60 tons.
Home and did a little business, and so taking Mr. Pett by the way, we walked to the Temple, in our way seeing one of the Russia Embassador’s coaches go along, with his footmen not in liverys, but their country habits; one of one colour and another of another, which was very strange.
At the Temple spoke with Mr. Turner and Calthrop, and so walked home again, being in some pain through the cold which I have got to-day by water, which troubles me.
At the office doing business a good while, and so home and had a posset, and so to bed.
Two more books from Belt Publishing came out this week, both part of their “50 Maps” series, each focusing on an Ohio city: Cincinnati in 50 Maps, edited by Nick Swartsell and with cartography by… More
“If new proposals detailed in an FDA memo are put into place, experts told me it would mean the end of annual flu shots. And end of most vaccines for pregnant people. And maybe the end of updates to pneumonia vaccines. And more.”
I love the remix of Radiohead’s Everything In Its Right Place in the midst of Kelly Lee Owens’ Boiler Room set (~33:50 mark). Had me chair dancing this AM!
TABARROK:To be clear, a 0.5% increase in the rate of productivity growth, that doesn’t seem like a lot, but that would be historically a bigger increase than we got from anything. A bigger increase than the internet. Sure, yes.
COWEN:It is the internet in a way, but yes.
TABARROK:It was founded on the internet, yes. The internet was the agar culturefor the growth of the AI.
COWEN:That’s why the internet’s important. We’re just beginning to realize this,right?
TABARROK:Exactly, yes.
COWEN:It’s why a lot of people can’t admit AI might be a good thing, because then they’d have to admit the internet was a good thing. They’re so committed to never saying that.
TABARROK:Is that why?
COWEN:That’s why, yes.Believe me. That’s why.
TABARROK:It is funny that I think historically, when we look back, I think you’re right, we’ll think about what was the internet. The growth culture was putting everything online, was for the AI. It wasn’t for us.
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the November 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 367 thousand.
Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."
Click on graph for larger image.
Heavy truck sales were at 367 thousand SAAR in November, up from 339 thousand in October, and down 25.2% from 491 thousand SAAR in November 2024.
Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 13.2% in 2025 compared to 2024 through November.
Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.
The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 15.6 million in November on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 2.0% from the sales rate in October, and down 5.6% from November 2024.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through October (red from Omdia).
Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".
Then sales were depressed in May and June.
Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
Sales in November were slightly above the consensus forecast of 15.4 million SAAR.
China’s first attempt to land an orbital-class rocket may have ended in a fiery crash, but the company responsible for the mission had a lot to celebrate with the first flight of its new methane-fueled launcher.
LandSpace, a decade-old company based in Beijing, launched its new Zhuque-3 rocket for the first time at 11 pm EST Tuesday (04:00 UTC Wednesday), or noon local time at the Jiuquan launch site in northwestern China.
Powered by nine methane-fueled engines, the Zhuque-3 (Vermillion Bird-3) rocket climbed away from its launch pad with more than 1.7 million pounds of thrust. The 216-foot-tall (66-meter) launcher headed southeast, soaring through clear skies before releasing its first stage booster about two minutes into the flight.
There’s a race in China among several companies vying to become the next to launch and land an orbital-class rocket, and the starting gun could go off as soon as tonight.
LandSpace, one of several maturing Chinese rocket startups, is about to launch the first flight of its medium-lift Zhuque-3 rocket. Liftoff could happen around 11 pm EST tonight (04:00 UTC Wednesday), or noon local time at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwestern China.
Airspace warning notices advising pilots to steer clear of the rocket’s flight path suggest LandSpace has a launch window of about two hours. When it lifts off, the Zhuque-3 (Vermillion Bird-3) rocket will become the largest commercial launch vehicle ever flown in China. What’s more, LandSpace will become the first Chinese launch provider to attempt a landing of its first stage booster, using the same tried-and-true return method pioneered by SpaceX and, more recently, Blue Origin in the United States.
Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.
More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.
The national median rent fell 1.0% in November, and now stands at $1,367. This was the fourth consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’re now in the midst of the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we will close out the year with an additional modest rent decline in December.
Realtor.com: 27th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents
October 2025 marks the 27th straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $29, or -1.7%, year over year.
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.6%, up from 52.4% the previous month. The employment index increased to 48.9%, up from 48.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.
Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in November, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025.
The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the sixth month in a row with a reading of 48.9 percent, a 0.7-percentage point improvement from the 48.2 percent recorded in October — the fourth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.
“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.1 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 50.8 percent recorded in October and 2.2 percentage points above its 12-month average of 51.9 percent. This is the 12th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)
“The Prices Index registered 65.4 percent in November, its lowest reading since hitting 65.1 percent in April 2025. The November figure was a 4.6-percentage point drop from October’s reading of 70 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 12 straight months. emphasis added
Employment was in contraction for the 6th consecutive month, and prices paid remained high.
Industrial production (IP) increased 0.1 percent in September after moving down 0.3 percent in August; for the third quarter as a whole, IP increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent. In September, the indexes for manufacturing and for mining were unchanged relative to August, and the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 101.4 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in September was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged relative to August at 75.9 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Capacity utilization at 75.9% is 3.6% below the average from 1972 to 2023. This was below consensus expectations.
Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.
Industrial production increased to 101.4. This is below the pre-pandemic level.
Industrial production was below consensus expectations (with revisions).
Jared Isaacman, President Donald Trump’s nominee to be the next administrator of NASA, appears before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Wednesday, April 9, 2025, at the Russell Senate Office Building in Washington. Image: NASA/Bill Ingalls
Jared Isaacman is set to appear before lawmakers once again for a hearing to become NASA’s next Senate-confirmed administrator.
The commercial astronaut and entrepreneur will appear alongside Steven Haines, a nominee to be the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Analysis. The hearing in front of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation is scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. EST (1500 UTC) on Wednesday, Dec. 3.
A livestream of the hearing will be available shortly before the proceedings begin.
In an excerpt of his written opening remarks, Isaacman emphasized the importance of the moment, stating that with the Artemis 2 launch just around the corner the “challenging endeavor” is “one that requires full-time leadership.”
“This is not the time for delay, but for action, because if we fall behind — if we make a mistake — we may never catch up, and the consequences could shift the balance of power here on Earth,” Isaacman wrote.
“The Congress, and specifically this Committee, understand the urgency of the moment –- placing a historic investment in human space exploration that President Trump signed in the one big beautiful bill. It’s now time for NASA and our partners to deliver.”
While the shared snippets of Isaacman’s remarks don’t explicitly mention China, those prepared by the committee’s chairman, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), do point to the geopolitical rivalry in space.
“I know Mr. Isaacman will be a strong leader who sees that that Artemis 2 launches safely, successfully, and without delay,” Cruz wrote. “He must then turn to Artemis 3, landing Americans on the Moon before China, which is aiming to send its own taikonauts there by 2030.”
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, questions Jared Isaacman, President Donald Trump’s nominee to be the next administrator of NASA, during a hearing, Wednesday, April 9, 2025, at the Russell Senate Office Building in Washington. Image: NASA/Bill Ingalls
Isaacman, who funded and commanded the Polaris Dawn and Inspiration4 free-flying Crew Dragon missions, was picked for the NASA Administrator position by President Donald Trump back in December 2024 and his nomination was progressing smoothly through the Senate in the spring. However, he was yanked from consideration by the President at the same time as a public fallout with SpaceX founder and one of the President’s biggest political donors, Elon Musk.
In the months since his nomination was formally withdrawn, Isaacman remained publicly supportive of the President and appeared at the White House during a gathering of tech industry leaders. He was re-nominated for the job in early November.
Thank you, Mr. President @POTUS, for this opportunity. It will be an honor to serve my country under your leadership. I am also very grateful to @SecDuffy, who skillfully oversees @NASA alongside his many other responsibilities.
The second attempt for Isaacman to get the NASA Administrator position comes nearly eight months after he first appeared for his nomination hearing. This go around, things seem to be moving even more quickly with a vote to advance his nomination to the full Senate already scheduled for Monday, Dec. 8, at 5:30 p.m. EST (2230 UTC).
Like with his first nomination, Isaacman has received broad support from the space community. A letter of support was signed by 36 former astronauts and submitted on Nov. 22 to the chair and ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Sen. Marcia Cantwell (D-WA).
This is an expansion of a similar letter signed by 28 astronauts in March. The Nov. 22 letter includes signatories like Charlie Bolden, Peggy Whitson and Nicole Stott.
“We believe that Jared Isaacman is clearly qualified to lead NASA at this critical juncture,” the letter reads in part. “As an entrepreneur, pilot, and commander of two groundbreaking space missions, he brings credibility and capability to make a difference now.
“Most importantly, Jared has a genuine passion for space exploration and a genuine admiration for NASA as an American institution.”
One difference between the last time Isaacman testified before senators and now was the leaking of a draft plan that Isaacman crafted called “Athena” that laid out his vision for how to approach changes at NASA.
In a lengthy post to X following the leak in early November, Isaacman published an overview of the full, 100-page plan, which he said focused on five main priorities:
Reorganize and empower
American leadership in the high ground of space
Solving the orbital economy
NASA as a force multiplier for science
Investing in the future
“This plan never favored any one vendor, never recommended closing centers, or directed the cancellation of programs before objectives were achieved,” Isaacman wrote in closing. “The plan valued human exploration as much as scientific discovery. It was written as a starting place to give NASA, international partners, and the commercial sector the best chance for long-term success.”
“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain
macroeconomic environment,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “And while November's
slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of 20,000 jobs added. The BLS report will NOT be released on Friday due to the government shutdown.
Here's the latest survey of the job market for new PhD economists:
To: Members of the American Economic Association From: AEA Committee on the Job Market: John Cawley (chair), Elisabeth “Bitsy” Perlman, Al Roth, Peter Rousseau, Wendy Stock, and Stephen Wu Date: December 1, 2025 Re: Survey of hiring plans of U.S. Economics Departments
################
Also on the AEA website is this unprecedented announcement:
"The American Economic Association (AEA) has accepted Lawrence H. Summers' voluntary resignation from membership and, pursuant to the AEA's Policies, Procedures, and Code of Professional Conduct, has imposed a lifetime ban on his membership. In addition, effective immediately, the AEA has imposed a lifetime prohibition on Mr. Summers' attending, speaking at, or otherwise participating in AEA-sponsored events or activities, including serving in any editorial or refereeing capacity for AEA journals. The AEA condemns Mr. Summers' conduct, as reflected in publicly reported communications, as fundamentally inconsistent with its standards of professional integrity and with the trust placed in mentors within the economics profession. Consistent with longstanding AEA practices and to protect the integrity and confidentiality of AEA processes, the AEA will not comment further on individual matters or the specific considerations underlying this determination.
The AEA is committed to upholding the highest standards of professional conduct and to fostering a safe, respectful, and inclusive environment for all members of the economics community. The AEA affirms its expectation that all members adhere to the AEA Code of Professional Conduct and the AEA Policy on Harassment, Discrimination, and Retaliation, and remains dedicated to maintaining professional environments in which economists of all backgrounds can participate fully, and with dignity and respect."
By itself, that disdain for military line officers reflects a remarkable lack of responsibility by the Trump administration. But the murkiness over exactly what happened that night, its legality and the scurry to try to cover some personal reputations while sinking others will only serve to urge bipartisan congressional investigations to dig in deeper.
In the deepening scandal, Congress’ four armed services chairs and ranking members now want to investigate the legal justifications in the boat attacks altogether as well as the order to kill – actions that a widening circle see as hovering between murder and the war crime of slaying survivors.
Donald Trump says he prefers to believe that Hegseth never gave a verbal command to “kill everyone,” resulting in a second strike on an 11-person, suspected drug boat on Sept. 2. Trump was circumspect as to whether there even was a second strike but backed his political appointee and insisted a lethal first attack was legally legitimate.
In the formal White House statement, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt appeared to say that it was Adm. Frank Bradley who acted in leading a strike – which apparently was watched live by Hegseth – and a second strike on the targeted boat that killed at least two survivors of the original strike. The Washington Post reported that Hegseth gave a verbal order to kill everyone after surveillance footage showed two men clinging to the wreckage. Bradley, as head of Special Operations Command, ordered the second strike.
Officials seemed to say that Hegseth ordered a lethal attack, but may not have insisted on a second strike, leaving the responsibility questions just a bit hazy. But Hegseth certainly did not stop it, as required by military justice codes. In the latest telling by Pentagon officials, Hegseth’s directive did not specifically address what should happen if a first missile did not kill everyone – an assertion that itself runs counter to normal military planning.
Hegseth now added in a social media post – the curious stage of choice for public policy – that he did not even view the entire attack, a contradiction of his televised comments the day after the military action. It again underscored that Hegseth takes no responsibility and hangs it own military commander.
Blaming the military officer is the opposite of the-buck-stops-here responsibility that we associate with great leadership. It is also a dangerous, slippery legal position since the operation clearly had been witnessed live and on video by a healthy number of military operations observers.
More Questions Emerge
When the records of the attack finally become public, how deeply will Trump and Hegseth have buried themselves? Do they expect nonpartisan military officers, pilots, and Pentagon staffers to lie to protect Hegseth?
Trump and Hegseth both argue without citing a law that lethal strikes on suspected smugglers are justified by declaring cartels as terrorist organizations that can be pursued across international borders and neutral zones. Trump asserted that drug smuggling is now “infinitesimal,” an assertion that simply cannot be shown by any reported fact.
Indeed, the Hegseth investigation is bound to renew inquiries into whether the crews of the 22 targeted boats to date were sent by organized cartels, or rather reflected freelancing civilians seeking a payday for individual smuggling runs, as reported by the Associated Press, which sent reporters to find the families of crewmen. Moreover, if the boat held drugs, there were questions about why it would be carrying 11 crew members who would simply be taking up space needed for bulky drug shipments, and about what type of drugs were on the boat.
The U.S. had intended to stop import of fentanyl, not cocaine, and the boat was not on a route meant to end on U.S. shores.
Trump also brought new questions by moving to pardon Juan Orlando Hernandez, former president of Honduras, arrested in Honduras and convicted in the U.S. for his role in smuggling 400 tons of cocaine into the U.S. The pardon was happening just as the inferno was building around Hegseth.
Coincidental Timing
Hegseth also is at the center of seeking to recall Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., into the Navy to have him face possible court martial for advising members of the military to think twice about blindly following “unlawful” orders. The FBI is investigating Kelly and five other members of Congress for “seditious” behavior, as Trump has labeled their repetition of clauses from the Uniformed Code of Military Justice.
Hegseth insists that there are no “unlawful” orders in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, in the threats of land and aerial war in Venezuela, or on the streets of America, where Hegseth has ordered National Guardsmen by the thousand to Chicago, Los Angeles, Charlotte and other immigrant-heavy populations.
Kelly has doubled down with these Hegseth non-denunciations of kill orders as “fake news.” Kelly now says that as a Navy captain, he would have refused a verbal order, as alleged in the boat case, to kill survivors at sea.
Neither Hegseth nor the White House has offered a defense of Hegseth’s role as the supervising government official in knowing that the purported second strike had taken place with nary a word of caution from him.
Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending November 28, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment
for the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.4 percent on
a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 33
percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous
week and was 109 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 32 percent
compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage rates moved lower in line with Treasury yields, which declined on data showing a weaker labor
market and declining consumer confidence. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.32 percent
after steadily increasing over the past month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief
Economist. “After adjusting for the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, refinance activity decreased
across both conventional and government loans, as borrowers held out for lower rates. Purchase
applications were up slightly, but we continue to see mixed results each week as the broader economic
outlook remains cloudy, even as cooling home-price growth and increasing for-sale inventory bring some
buyers back into the market.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances
($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.32 percent from 6.40 percent, with points decreasing to 0.58 from 0.60
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.
According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 17% year-over-year unadjusted.
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.
The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.
The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September.
On The Marginal Revolution Podcast this week, Tyler and I discuss the US debt. This is our final podcast of the year. Here’s one bit:
TABARROK: I do agree that it is puzzling that the interest rate on bonds is so low. Hanno Lustig and his co-authors have an interesting paper on this. They point out that not only is it the case that we have all of this debt with no plans to pay it, as far as we can tell right now, but the debt is not a very good asset in the sense that when will the debt be paid? If it is going to be paid, it’s going to be paid when the times are good. That means that you’re being paid when GDP is higher and the marginal utility money is low.
When is the debt not paid? When does it get bigger? It means when the economy is doing poorly. The debt as an asset has the opposite kind of structure than you would want. It’s not like gold, which arguably goes down in good times and goes up in bad times. You get some nice covariance to even out your portfolio. The debt as an asset is positively correlated with good times, and that’s bad. You should expect the interest rates to be much, much higher than they actually are.
COWEN: The easy out there is just to say it’s always going to be paid. Let me give you a way of reconceptualizing the problem. The Hanno Lustig paper, which is called “US Public Debt Valuation Puzzle,” like a lot of work on debt, it focuses on flows. There’s the rate of interest, there’s government spending. If you look at stocks, look at the stock of wealth in the United States. A common estimate from the past was wealth is six to eight times higher than GDP. That’s a little misleading. How do you value all the wealth? How liquid is it?
Still, we all know there’s a lot more wealth than GDP. If your economy stays at peace, if anything, that ratio rises. You build things, they’re pretty durable. None of it is destroyed by bombs. We’re just headed to having more and more wealth. If you take, say, 100% debt-to-GDP ratio, and you think wealth is six to eight times higher, what’s our debt-to-wealth ratio? Well, it’s going to depend what kind of wealth, how liquid, blah, blah, blah. Let’s say it’s like 20%. Let’s say you had a debt ratio of 20% to your wealth at some point in the history of your mortgage. I bet you did. You weren’t worried. Why should the US be worried?
TABARROK: The US is a much longer-lived entity, presumably, than I am.
COWEN: That’s right. You could have 200% debt-to-GDP ratio. In terms of your debt-to-wealth ratio, again, it’s somewhat arbitrary, but say it’s 40% to 50% that might be on the high side. It’s not pleasant, but I’ve been in that situation with mortgages.
Seeing oil and coolant mix in your motorcycle is never a good sign. It’s often a clue that something serious is happening inside your engine. In many cases, it points to a failing head gasket, something that even legal experts like Fang Law Firm recognize can lead to disputes or claims after mechanical failures.
Understanding The Role Of The Head Gasket
The head gasket is one of the most crucial components in your motorcycle’s engine. It seals the gap between the engine block and the cylinder head, ensuring that oil, coolant, and combustion gases each stay in their proper pathways. Without a proper seal, these fluids can mix, causing performance issues or even catastrophic engine failure.
When functioning correctly, the head gasket allows oil to lubricate the engine and coolant to regulate temperature without interference. But once the gasket weakens, cracks, or burns through, that separation is compromised. The result is the unwanted blending of fluids that signals deeper engine trouble.
What Happens When Coolant And Oil Mix
Coolant and oil have very different jobs. Oil reduces friction and keeps moving parts smooth, while coolant prevents overheating. When they mix, both lose their effectiveness, and the engine becomes vulnerable to damage.
A telltale sign of mixing is a milky or frothy appearance in the oil. This often shows up on the dipstick or under the oil filler cap. You might also notice the engine running hot, white smoke from the exhaust, or even a sweet smell as coolant burns off during combustion.
When coolant enters the oil system, it reduces lubrication. This means metal parts begin to grind, wear, and overheat more quickly. Conversely, oil entering the cooling system reduces heat transfer, making it harder for your engine to stay within safe temperature limits.
How Coolant-Oil Mixing Indicates Head Gasket Failure
A blown or damaged head gasket is the most common cause of oil and coolant mixing. The gasket acts as a barrier, keeping the coolant channels and oil passages separate. When it cracks or loses pressure, the two fluids come into contact.
The location of the gasket failure often determines the symptoms. A break near an oil passage can cause coolant to enter the oil system. A breach near a combustion chamber can cause white exhaust smoke or bubbling in the radiator. Each sign tells a mechanic where to look.
In motorcycles, this issue can be even more serious than in cars. Motorcycle engines are compact, and their cooling and lubrication systems are tightly integrated. Once mixing starts, damage occurs quickly because there’s less fluid volume to absorb contamination.
Diagnosing The Problem Early
Catching the issue early can make all the difference. The first step is to check your oil. If it appears creamy, cloudy, or oddly thick, coolant has likely leaked in. Similarly, check the coolant reservoir for signs of an oily film or residue.
A compression test or leak-down test can help confirm a failing head gasket. These tests measure how well your engine cylinders hold pressure. Low or inconsistent readings often point to a compromised seal.
Mechanics may also use chemical tests that detect combustion gases in the coolant. This confirms that the gasket has failed, allowing exhaust gases into the cooling system. The sooner these signs are caught, the better your chances of avoiding full engine damage.
Repairing The Damage
Fixing coolant-oil mixing almost always requires replacing the head gasket. This job is labor-intensive, as it involves removing the cylinder head, cleaning the surfaces, and reassembling the engine. For most motorcycles, the repair costs range from $1,000 to $2,000, depending on complexity and labor rates.
In some cases, if the gasket failure has caused significant overheating, the cylinder head may need resurfacing or replacement. This can add both time and cost to the repair. For older motorcycles, riders sometimes face the tough choice between rebuilding or replacing the engine entirely.
After repair, mechanics will flush both the oil and cooling systems to remove all traces of contaminated fluid. Running the engine with mixed fluids, even briefly, can dramatically shorten its lifespan.
Preventing Future Problems
Prevention starts with regular maintenance and temperature control. Keep an eye on your coolant levels, oil quality, and engine temperature gauge. Overheating is the number one cause of head gasket failure, so ensuring the cooling system is clean and functioning properly is key.
Use high-quality coolant and change it according to the manufacturer’s schedule. Fresh coolant contains additives that protect against corrosion and gasket wear. Similarly, use the correct oil for your motorcycle and change it on time to maintain proper lubrication.
Lastly, pay attention to your engine’s behavior. Unusual sounds, smoke, or overheating are signs to stop riding and get an inspection before the damage spreads.
Conclusion
When coolant and oil mix, your motorcycle is sending a clear warning about the integrity of its head gasket. Addressing the issue early prevents costly damage and keeps your engine running smoothly. If a mechanical failure contributes to a crash or claim, consulting experts like Fang Law Firm can help you navigate the aftermath responsibly and effectively.
Kanban is a simple, practical approach to visually managing processes and backlogs by moving work cards from one progress column to another. Toyota came up with it to track their production lines back in the middle of the 20th century, but it's since been applied to all sorts of industries with great effect. And Fizzy is our new fun, modern take on it in digital form.
We're certainly not the first to take a swing at this, not even for software development. Since the early 2000s, there's been a movement to use the Kanban concept to track bugs, issues, and ideas in our industry. And countless attempts to digitize the concept over the years.
But as with so much other software, good ideas can grow cumbersome and unwieldy surprisingly quickly. Fizzy is a fresh reset of an old idea.
We need more of that.
Very little software is ever the final word on solving interesting problems. Even products that start out with great promise and simplicity tend to accumulate cruft and complexity over time. A healthy ecosystem needs a recurring cycle of renewal.
We've taken this mission to heart not just with Fizzy's fun, colorful, and modern implementation of the Kanban concept, but also in its distribution.
Fizzy is available as a service we run where you get 1,000 cards for free, and then it's $20/month for unlimited usage. But we're also giving you access to the entire code base, and invite enterprising individuals and companies to run their own instance totally free of charge.
This is done under the O'Saasy License, which is basically the do-whatever-you-want-just-don't-sue MIT License, but with a carve-out that reserves the commercialization rights to run Fizzy as SaaS for us as the creators. That means it's not technically Open Source™, but the source sure is open, and you can find it on our public GitHub repository.
That open source is what we run too. So new features or bugs fixes accepted on GitHub will make it into both our Fizzy SaaS offering and what anyone can run on their own hardware. We've already had a handful of contributions go live like this!
Ultimately, it's our plan to let data flow freely between the SaaS and the local installations. You'll be able to start an account on your own instance, and then, if you'd rather we just run it for you, take that data with you into the managed setup. Or the other way around!
In an age where SaaS companies come and go, pivot one way or the other, I think it's a great reassurance that the source code is freely available, and that any work put into a SaaS account is portable to your own installation later.
I'm also just a huge fan of being able to View Source. Traditionally, that's been reserved to the front end (and even that has been disappearing due to the scourge of minimization, transpiling, and bundling), but I'm usually even more interested in seeing how things are built on the backend. Fizzy allows you full introspection into that. Including the entire history of how the product was built, pull request by pull request. It's a great way to learn how modern Rails applications are put together!
So please give Fizzy a spin. Whether you're working on software, with a need to track those bugs and feature requests, or you're in an entirely different business and need a place for your particular issues and ideas. Fizzy is a fresh, fun way to manage it all, Kanban style. Enjoy!
Truck accidents in Texas can bring sudden changes that affect a person’s health, routine, and sense of stability. Many victims find themselves facing pain, medical visits, and new challenges that make each day harder to manage. A crash with a large truck can cause injuries that take a long time to heal. This makes a hard situation even more stressful. As these challenges grow it becomes important to understand the types of support that may be available. These forms of support can help guide the recovery process and make the path forward more manageable. These key points make it easier to understand what comes next regarding compensation for commercial truck accident injuries.
Medical Treatment and Continuing Care
Medical treatment is often one of the largest expenses after a truck accident. Victims may need emergency care, follow up visits, imaging tests, therapy sessions, and continued care to manage ongoing pain. Some injuries require long recovery periods that add to medical costs and place more strain on daily life. When treatment is needed for an extended time the financial pressure can grow. These costs are often included when seeking support because they come directly from the injuries caused by the accident.
Income Loss and Changes at Work
Many victims miss work for days or even weeks as they recover from the crash. Lost income can make it harder to pay bills or manage regular expenses that were once easy to handle. Some injuries change how a person performs their job which can affect long term earning power. These work related changes can create stress during a time when focus should be on healing. If the crash makes it harder to work or earn, that should be part of the claim.
Pain and Daily Life Disruptions
A truck accident can affect more than the body. Pain can slow movement and make tasks that once felt simple take much more effort. Emotional strain can build as victims adjust to new limits in their daily routines. Some people find that they cannot enjoy the same activities they once loved. These disruptions can shape the way victims move through life and may be included in the support they pursue.
Vehicle Damage and Personal Losses
A truck accident often causes major damage to the victim’s vehicle. Repairs can be costly and in many cases the vehicle cannot be fixed at all. Items inside the vehicle can also be damaged which adds to the total loss. These expenses become part of the overall harm suffered in the crash. When property loss affects transportation and daily function it can become a large part of the recovery process.
Long Term Impact and Future Needs
Some injuries from truck accidents have effects that last far beyond the first weeks of recovery. Victims may need help with movement or strength for years which can affect the ability to handle routine tasks. Ongoing care may be needed to manage pain or support daily activities. These long term effects can change how a person works, travels, or enjoys life. If these problems come from the crash, they can be part of the support the person asks for moving forward.
A truck crash can bring big changes, but knowing what help is out there can take some pressure off. Medical costs, income loss, daily life disruptions, property damage, and long term needs all shape the full picture of harm caused by the accident. All of these problems can shape the kind of help someone needs after the crash. With the right support, they can focus on healing and start to feel more stable.
Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders’ superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms.
The crux of the problem is that the IRA imposes price caps that shorten the effective life of a patent and applies those price controls even to later-approved uses. Thirteen years after FDA approval, biologics, which are typically infused or injected, become subject to price controls. For small-molecule drugs, typically pills or tablets, the window is only nine years. The clock starts at a drug’s first approval, leaving a follow-on or alternative use, approved years later, an insufficient period to make up the cost of research.
Two weeks ago, a study I conducted with colleagues at the University of Chicago appeared in Health Affairs. It reveals how much these provisions harm cancer research. In reviewing every Food and Drug Administration-approved cancer drug between 2000 and 2024, we found a large part of innovation in cancer treatment takes place after a therapy is first approved. About 42% of the 184 cancer therapies that were initially approved during that period had follow-on approvals—involving new uses or “indications” for an existing drug—such as treating additional cancer types or being used earlier in the disease, when treatment outcomes tend to be better.
This cumulative progress through follow-on discoveries is a big driver of new cancer treatments, the largest drug class making up about 35% of the overall FDA pipeline. Cancer drugs are generally first tested in patients with late-stage disease, after which the drug is studied for use in earlier stages of that cancer and for new uses, including treating other cancers. Our study found that 60% of follow-on drugs treated earlier stages than the initial drugs. This is important because treating earlier stages is often more successful than when a cancer has spread more.
But that cumulative progress depends on incentives for sustained research well after the first FDA approval—often years of additional trials and investments. And those incentives were killed by the IRA.
Each year, SpaceNews selects the people, programs and technologies that have most influenced the direction of the space industry in the past year. Started in 2017, our annual celebration recognizes […]
Each year, SpaceNews selects the people, programs and technologies that have most influenced the direction of the space industry in the past year. Started in 2017, our annual celebration recognizes […]
Each year, SpaceNews selects the people, programs and technologies that have most influenced the direction of the space industry in the past year. Started in 2017, our annual celebration recognizes […]
Each year, SpaceNews selects the people, programs and technologies that have most influenced the direction of the space industry in the past year. Started in 2017, our annual celebration recognizes […]
Each year, SpaceNews selects the people, programs and technologies that have most influenced the direction of the space industry in the past year. Started in 2017, our annual celebration recognizes […]
Each year, SpaceNews selects the people, programs and technologies that have most influenced the direction of the space industry in the past year. Started in 2017, our annual celebration recognizes […]
Aditya Kalra and Munsif Vengattil, reporting for Reuters:
Apple does not plan to comply with a mandate to preload its
smartphones with a state-owned cyber safety app and will
convey its concerns to New Delhi, three sources said, after
the government’s move sparked surveillance concerns and a
political uproar.
The Indian government has confidentially ordered companies
including Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi to preload their phones with
an app called Sanchar Saathi, or Communication Partner, within 90
days. The app is intended to track stolen phones, block them and
prevent them from being misused.
The government also wants manufacturers to ensure that the app is
not disabled. And for devices already in the supply chain,
manufacturers should push the app to phones via software updates,
Reuters was first to report on Monday. [...]
Apple however does not plan to comply with the directive and will
tell the government it does not follow such mandates anywhere in
the world as they raise a host of privacy and security issues for
the company’s iOS ecosystem, said two of the industry sources who
are familiar with Apple’s concerns. They declined to be named
publicly as the company’s strategy is private.
The second source said Apple does not plan to go to court or take
a public stand, but it will tell the government it cannot follow
the order because of security vulnerabilities. Apple “can’t do
this. Period,” the person said.
To my knowledge, there are no government-mandated apps pre-installed on iPhones anywhere in the world. I’m not even sure how that would work, technically, given that third-party apps have to come from the App Store and thus can’t be installed until after the iPhone is configured and the user signs into their App Store Apple Account.
The app order comes as Apple is locked in a court fight with an
Indian watchdog over the nation’s antitrust penalty law. Apple has
said it risks facing a fine of up to $38 billion in a case.
This is another one of those laws like the EU’s DMA, where maximum possible fines are based on a percentage of global revenue. No one in India seems to actually be threatening any such fine, but it’s ludicrous that it’s even possible.
It appears as though this represents the original photography,
unaltered before digital visual effects got involved. Somehow,
this episode (along with many others) do not include all the
digital visual effects that were in the original broadcasts and
home video releases. It’s a bizarro mistake for Lionsgate and HBO
Max to make and not discover until after the show was streaming to
customers.
I decided to help illustrate the changes by diving in and
creating images that might do better than words. The first thing I
noticed is that, at least for season one, the episode titles and
order were totally jumbled. The puke episode is “Red in the Face”,
not “Babylon”.
So HBO Max not only ruined several episodes by “remastering” the wrong footage, but they both mis-numbered and mis-titled the episodes. Breathtaking ineptitude. Think about it. This is the entire raison d’être — streaming high quality movies and episodic series. That’s the one and only thing HBO Max does. And they have zero care or craft for what they do. They didn’t just do this to any show. They did it to one of the most cinematically beautiful and carefully crafted shows ever made.
Vaziri’s post, as is his wont, is replete with illustrated and animated examples of the mistakes in HBO’s versions compared to the correct originals available from AMC and iTunes. Vaziri notes:
The fun thing about this restoration mistake is that now we, the
audience, get to see exactly how many digital visual effects were
actually used in a show like “Mad Men”, which most would assume
did not have any digital effects component. In this shot, not only
were the techs and hose removed, but the spot where the pretend
puke meets Slattery’s face has some clever digital warping to make
it seem like the flow is truly coming from his mouth (as opposed
to it appearing through a tube inches from his mouth, on the other
side of his face).
I've adopted a new (to me) pattern for my Python projects to make them easier to hack on using uv run. I'm using a PEP 735 dependency group called dev to declare my development dependencies - in particular pytest - such that running uv run pytest executes the tests for my project without me having to even think about setting up a virtual environment first.
Here's the pattern I'm using. I start by creating a new library using uv init --lib like this:
mkdir my-new-library
cd my-new-library
uv init --lib
The dev dependency group is a special case for uv run - it will always install those dependencies as well such that commands like pytest can work correctly.
When you package a project for distribution the dev dependencies will not be automatically installed for users of your package.
The importance of [build-system] for specifying a package
That [build-system] section is crucial, because it tells uv that the directory should be treated as a "package". This means that when uv run executes it installs the current directory as an editable package in the virtual environment.
Removing [build-system] and then rm -rf .venv to delete the virtual environment results in the following error when trying to run uv run pytest:
________________ ERROR collecting tests/test_my_new_library.py _________________
ImportError while importing test module '/private/tmp/my-new-library/tests/test_my_new_library.py'.
Hint: make sure your test modules/packages have valid Python names.
Traceback:
/opt/homebrew/Caskroom/miniconda/base/lib/python3.10/importlib/__init__.py:126: in import_module
return _bootstrap._gcd_import(name[level:], package, level)
tests/test_my_new_library.py:1: in <module>
from my_new_library import hello
E ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'my_new_library'
=========================== short test summary info ============================
ERROR tests/test_my_new_library.py
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Interrupted: 1 error during collection !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
=============================== 1 error in 0.07s ===============================
Adding the [build-system] section back in gets rid of this error.
There's an alternative to having a [build-system] section, which is to add this to the pyproject.toml file instead:
pubfnis_package(&self,require_build_system:bool) -> bool{// If `tool.uv.package` is set, defer to that explicit setting.ifletSome(is_package) = self.tool_uv_package(){return is_package;}// Otherwise, a project is assumed to be a package if `build-system` is present.self.build_system.is_some() || !require_build_system
}
So there's no need to use that [tool.uv] section if you already have a [build-system] section.
Installation in CI
If you're still using regular pip in your CI scripts you'll need to ensure the dev dependency group is installed like this:
pip install . --group dev
The end result
Projects that use this pattern become a whole lot easier for other people to hack on. I first used this for my datasette-extract package, with the result that checking out and running the tests is now a case of running just the following commands:
git clone https://github.com/datasette/datasette-extract
cd datasette-extract
uv run pytest
No need to think about virtual environments or development dependencies - this just works.
Building a distributable wheel of the project is a one-liner as well:
Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 20,000 jobs added, down from 42,000 in October.
• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.3%.
• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for November. The consensus is for 52.1, down from 52.4.
Alan Sepinwall, writing for Wired (News+ link in case Wired’s paywall busts your balls):
Last month, HBO Max announced a major new addition to its library.
Not only would the streamer be adding Mad Men — a show that HBO
execs infamously passed on back when Matthew Weiner was a writer
on The Sopranos — but it would be presenting the period drama’s
episodes in a new 4K remastering. This would, according to the
press release, give “audiences and longtime Mad Men fans
the opportunity to enjoy the series’ authentically crafted
elements with crisp detail and enhanced visual clarity.”
As it turned out, there was perhaps too much clarity. Not long
after the series went live on HBO Max, a screencap began floating
around social media from a scene in the Season One episode “Red in
the Face,” where Roger Sterling is vomiting in front of a group of
horrified Sterling Cooper clients. When it aired — and in the
version still available on AMC+ — seven men are onscreen, all of
them wearing period-appropriate suits and ties. The HBO Max
version, on the other hand, features two men who appear very out
of place in 1960: crew members lurking in the background, feeding
a hose to create the illusion that actor John Slattery is puking.
It’s not like the crew members are only partially on-screen, or out of focus far in the background. They’re right there. It’s glaringly obvious that no one at HBO Max even watched this. That’s how rotten the culture at Warner Bros. Discovery is. They obtained the rights to one of the greatest TV shows ever made (one that I personally hold alongside The Sopranos as my favorite ever), processed the episodes in some sort of “remastering” that did not need to happen, and didn’t even bother to watch the fucking new versions they produced before putting them on their service for the world to stream.
Maybe it’s because my eyes are getting old or maybe it’s because
the contrast between windows on macOS keeps getting worse.
Either way, I built a tiny Mac app last night that draws a border
around the active window. I named it “Alan”.
In Alan’s preferences, you can choose a preferred border width and
colors for both light and dark mode.
That’s it. That’s the app.
The timing of this is remarkably serendipitous — releasing an app named “Alan” to fix an obvious glaring design shortcoming in recent versions of MacOS just one week before Alan Dye left Apple. (See Michael Tsai for more on the app’s name, including a callback to Greg Landweber’s classic Mac OS extension Aaron.)
It’s worth following Hall’s “the contrast between windows” link, which points to his own post from five years ago lamenting the decline in contrast between active and inactive windows in MacOS. That 2020 post of Hall’s refers back to Steve Jobs’s introduction of Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard in 2007:
As I was preparing the above video for this post, I completely
forgot there was a final feature about the new Leopard Desktop
that was highlighted in that keynote.
Jobs took time out of a keynote to callout that it was now easier
to tell which window is focused. At 1:29 in that clip, you’ll hear
an outsized “Wooo!” from some of the audience just for this one
improvement.
Jobs even prepared a slide, highlighting “Prominent active window” as a noteworthy new feature. In 2007, the increase of visual prominence for the active window, going from 10.4 Tiger to 10.5 Leopard, drew applause from the audience. But the level of visual prominence indicating active/inactive windows was much higher in 10.4 Tiger than in any version of MacOS in the last decade under Alan Dye’s leadership.
I wish it did not feel understandable for there to be an app that
draws a big border around the currently active window. That should
be something made sufficiently obvious by the system.
Unfortunately, this is a problem plaguing the latest versions of
MacOS and Windows alike, which is baffling to me. The bar for what
constitutes acceptable user interface design seems to have fallen
low enough that it is tripping everyone at the two major desktop
operating system vendors.