Storm Systems to Impact the Central and Eastern U.S. Through the Weekend

IC 342: Hidden Galaxy in Camelopardalis

Similar in size to large, bright spiral galaxies in our neighborhood, Similar in size to large, bright spiral galaxies in our neighborhood,


Friday 9 January 1662/63

Waking in the morning, my wife I found also awake, and begun to speak to me with great trouble and tears, and by degrees from one discourse to another at last it appears that Sarah has told somebody that has told my wife of my meeting her at my brother’s and making her sit down by me while she told me stories of my wife, about her giving her scallop to her brother, and other things, which I am much vexed at, for I am sure I never spoke any thing of it, nor could any body tell her but by Sarah’s own words. I endeavoured to excuse my silence herein hitherto by not believing any thing she told me, only that of the scallop which she herself told me of. At last we pretty good friends, and my wife begun to speak again of the necessity of her keeping somebody to bear her company; for her familiarity with her other servants is it that spoils them all, and other company she hath none, which is too true, and called for Jane to reach her out of her trunk, giving her the keys to that purpose, a bundle of papers, and pulls out a paper, a copy of what, a pretty while since, she had wrote in a discontent to me, which I would not read, but burnt. She now read it, and it was so piquant, and wrote in English, and most of it true, of the retiredness of her life, and how unpleasant it was; that being wrote in English, and so in danger of being met with and read by others, I was vexed at it, and desired her and then commanded her to tear it. When she desired to be excused it, I forced it from her, and tore it, and withal took her other bundle of papers from her, and leapt out of the bed and in my shirt clapped them into the pocket of my breeches, that she might not get them from me, and having got on my stockings and breeches and gown, I pulled them out one by one and tore them all before her face, though it went against my heart to do it, she crying and desiring me not to do it, but such was my passion and trouble to see the letters of my love to her, and my Will wherein I had given her all I have in the world, when I went to sea with my Lord Sandwich, to be joyned with a paper of so much disgrace to me and dishonour, if it should have been found by any body. Having torn them all, saving a bond of my uncle Robert’s, which she hath long had in her hands, and our marriage license, and the first letter that ever I sent her when I was her servant,1 I took up the pieces and carried them into my chamber, and there, after many disputes with myself whether I should burn them or no, and having picked up, the pieces of the paper she read to-day, and of my Will which I tore, I burnt all the rest, and so went out to my office troubled in mind.

Hither comes Major Tolhurst, one of my old acquaintance in Cromwell’s time, and sometimes of our clubb, to see me, and I could do no less than carry him to the Mitre, and having sent for Mr. Beane, a merchant, a neighbour of mine, we sat and talked, Tolhurst telling me the manner of their collierys in the north. We broke up, and I home to dinner.

And to see my folly, as discontented as I am, when my wife came I could not forbear smiling all dinner till she began to speak bad words again, and then I began to be angry again, and so to my office.

Mr. Bland came in the evening to me hither, and sat talking to me about many things of merchandise, and I should be very happy in his discourse, durst I confess my ignorance to him, which is not so fit for me to do.

There coming a letter to me from Mr. Pierce, the surgeon, by my desire appointing his and Dr. Clerke’s coming to dine with me next Monday, I went to my wife and agreed upon matters, and at last for my honour am forced to make her presently a new Moyre gown to be seen by Mrs. Clerke, which troubles me to part with so much money, but, however, it sets my wife and I to friends again, though I and she never were so heartily angry in our lives as to-day almost, and I doubt the heartburning will not [be] soon over, and the truth is I am sorry for the tearing of so many poor loving letters of mine from sea and elsewhere to her.

So to my office again, and there the Scrivener brought me the end of the manuscript which I am going to get together of things of the Navy, which pleases me much. So home, and mighty friends with my wife again, and so to bed.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Collections: Hoplite Wars: Part IVa, The Status of Hoplites

This is the last part of our four-part series (I, II, IIIa, IIIb, Intermission) on the debates surrounding ancient Greek hoplites and the phalanx formation in which they fought. We’ve spent the last two entries in this series looking at warfare quite narrowly through the lens of tactics: hoplite spacing, depth, fighting style, and so on. I’ve argued for what I regard as a ‘blended’ model that sits somewhere between orthodoxy and heterodoxy: no ‘shoving’ othismos, but the hoplite phalanx is a shield wall, a formation with mostly regular spacing that is intended for shock and functions as a shock-focused shield wall formation likely from a relatively early date.

This week, we’re going to now ‘zoom out’ a bit and ask what implications the hoplite debate has for our broader understanding of Greek society, particularly polis Greek society. Hoplites, as warriors, were generally found in the Greek poleis but of course not all Greeks lived in poleis and areas of Greece without poleis largely lacked hoplites as well. In particular, our understanding of the place that hoplites have in polis society has a bunch of downstream implications in terms of social structure, the prevalence of slavery and even the question of how many Greeks there are in the first place.

I ended up having to split this into two parts for time, so this week we’re going to focus on the social status of hoplites, as well as some of the broader implications, particularly demographic ones, of a change in our understanding of how rich hoplites were. Then next week we’re going to close the series out by looking at hoplite ‘discipline,’ training and experience.

As always, if you like what you are reading, please share it as I rely on word-of-mouth to find readers! And if you really like it, you can support this project over at Patreon; I don’t promise not to use the money to buy a full hoplite panoply, but I also don’t not promise to do that. And if you want updates whenever a new post appears, you can click below for email updates or follow me on Twitter and Bluesky for updates when posts go live and my general musings; I have largely shifted over to Bluesky (I maintain some de minimis presence on Twitter), given that it has become a much better place for historical discussion than Twitter.

Via Wikimedia Commons, an arming scene showing hoplites and a young man being armed as a hoplite (c. 530-510 BC).

Orthodox Yeoman Hoplites

The key question we are asking here is fundamentally “how broad is the hoplite class?” That is, of course, a very important question, but as we’ll see, also a fiendishly tricky one. It is also a question where it can be unclear sometimes where scholars actually are which can render the debates confusing: heterodox scholars write articles and chapters against something called the ‘myth of the middle-class hoplite1 but it isn’t always clear exactly what the bounds of the model they’re arguing against is, in part because orthodox scholars are not generally proposing hard numbers for the size of the hoplite class.

By way of example, I want to take Victor Davis Hansen out to the woodshed on this point – because his half of this specific disconnect was brought up in the comments early in this series – in terms of the difference between how he sometimes imagines in words the size and social composition of the hoplite class and then how it looks when he uses numbers. In The Other Greeks, VDH’s preference for describing the hoplite polis of the late Archaic is ‘broad-based’ a term he uses for it about three dozen times, including on when he talks about the “broad base of hoplite yeomanry” and how “when middling farmers were in control of a Greek polis government it was broad-based: it was representative of the economic interest of most of the citizenry” and when he references “the yeomanry […] who had built the polis and created broad-based agrarian governments.”2 These references are, in my digital copy, all within 3 pages of each other. They certainly give the impression of a middling, yeoman-hoplite class that dominated the typical polis. And indeed, in his more pop-focused works, like the deeply flawed Carnage and Culture (2001) he posits Greece as the origin point for a western tradition that includes “equality among the middling classes” tied to the hoplite tradition, which certainly seems to suggest that Hanson thinks we should understand the hoplite class as broad, covering even relatively poor farmers, and with a great degree of internal equality.

But then flash forward three whole pages and we’re calculating the size of that ‘broad-based’ class and we get a line like, “the full-citizen hoplites […] composed about twenty percent of the total adult resident population of Boeotia.”3 And pulling out just that second quote, someone might express confusion when I say that the heterodox argue that the hoplite class is small and exclusive, a rejection of the ‘middle class’ yeoman-hoplite of the orthodox school, because look there is VDH himself saying they’re only 20%! But equally, one may question the fairness of describing such a rate of enfranchisement as ‘broad-based!’

Now on the one hand VDH’s argument in this passage is about the relative inclusivity of ‘moderate’ oligarchies (the ‘broad-based’ ones) as compared to radical Greek democracies and so the question of the relative breadth of the hoplite class itself is not particularly his concern. But I think he’s also hiding the ball here in key ways: Boeotia is a tricky test case – unusual and famous for both its significant cavalry (drawn from an unusually wealthy aristocracy) and light infantry manpower (drawn from an unusually impoverished peasantry). VDH notes the low property qualifications for citizenship in Boeotia but does not stop to consider if that might be connected not to the hoplites, but to the unusually large numbers of Boeotian light infantry.

Moreover, there is a lack of clarity when presenting these percentages as to exactly what is being included. VDH’s 20% figure is 20% of the total “adult resident population,” rather than – as we might expect – a percentage of the adult male population or frequently the free adult male population. So he is actually asserting something like almost 45% (really probably 43 or 44%) of free households serve as hoplites (once we adjust for women and the elderly), which, as we’ll see, I think is pretty doubtful.4 For the sake of keeping comparisons here ‘clean,’ I am going to try to be really clear on what is a percentage of what, because as we’ll see there is in fact, a real difference between the orthodox assumption of a hoplite class of 40-50% of free households and the heterodox assumption that is closer to 25% of free households.

So when I say that heterodox scholars generally argue for a smaller, economically elite hoplite class while orthodox scholars generally assume a larger ‘yeoman’ hoplite class, it can be tricky to pin down what that means, particularly on the orthodox side. We need apples-to-apples number comparisons to get a sense of where these folks differ.

And I think the place to actually start with this is Karl Julius Beloch (1854-1929); stick with me, I promise this will make sense in a second. Beloch’s Die Bevölkerung der griechisch-römischen Welt (1886, “The Population of the Greco-Roman World”) is the starting point for all of the debates of Greek and Roman demography, the first really significant, systematic effort to estimate the population of the entire classical world in a rigorous way. Now if you recall your historiography from our first part, you will quickly realize that as a German writing in the 1880s, Beloch was bound to have drawn his assumptions about Greek society and the social role of the hoplite class from those early Prussian and German scholars who serve as the foundation for the orthodox school. They were, after all, writing at the same time and in the same language as he was. Equally useful (for us) Beloch’s basic range of estimates for Greece remain more-or-less the accepted starting point for the problem, which is to say that a lot of current historians of ancient Greece when they think about the population of the Greek poleis are still ‘thinking with Beloch’ (typically mediated by Corvisier and Suder, La population de l’Antitiquité classique (2000)).

So analyzing Beloch’s approach – and because he is estimating population, he is forced to use numbers – can give us a sense of the society that the ‘orthodox’ vision of hoplites imagined at its inception and which it largely still imagines when it thinks in terms of raw population numbers. And that can help us lock down what we’re actually arguing about.

In very brief, Beloch had a problem to solve in estimating the population of Greece. Whereas in Roman Italy, he had census data to interpret, we have no equivalent in Greece (ancient reports of population in Greece are rare and almost invariably unreliable). So instead he adopts the method of estimating from maximum military deployments, the one number we reliably get from ancient sources. Doing so, of course, requires squaring away some key questions: what percentage of adult males might be called up for these armies? Our sources often give us only figures for hoplites, so this question really becomes, ‘what percentage of adult males served as hoplites?’ And then following on that, what percentage of people were female, children, elderly or non-free?

Beloch answers those questions as follows: he assumes that roughly half of all free households are in the hoplite class, so he can compute the free adult male population by multiplying hoplite deployments by two, that he can compute the free population by multiplying the adult male population by three, and that the non-free population is around 25% of the total (significantly concentrated in Sparta and Athens), including both slaves and serfs. You can see the logic in these assumptions but as I am going to argue all of these assumptions are wrong, some more wrong than others. We’ll come back to this, but I think Beloch’s key stumbling block (apart from just badly underestimating the number of children in a pre-modern population – he should be multiplying his adult males by four, not three) is that he largely assumes that the Greek poleis look more or less like the Roman Republic except that the Romans recruit a bit further down their socio-economic ladder. And that’s…not right, though you could see how someone working in the 1880s might jump to that expedient when the differences in Greek and Roman social structure were less clear.

Greeks are not Romans and the Greek polis is not the Roman Republic.5

Nevertheless those assumptions suggest a vision, a mental model of the social structure of the typical Greek polis: wealthy citizens of the hoplite class make up roughly half of the free households (he explicitly defends a 47/53% breakdown between hoplite and sub-hoplite), while the landless citizen poor make up the other half. Beloch assumes an enslaved population of c. 1m (against a free population of c. 3m), so a society that is roughly 25% enslaved, so we might properly say he imagines a society that is roughly 37.5% hoplite class (or richer), 37.5% poorer households and 25% enslaved households. And returning to a moment to VDH’s The Other Greeks (1995), that’s his model too: if 20% of adults (not just adult males) were citizen-hoplites in Boeotia, then something like 43% of (free) households were hoplite households (remember to adjust not just for women, but also for the elderly),6 which is roughly Beloch’s figure. It is a touch lower, but remember that VDH is computing for Boeotia, a part of Greece where we expect a modestly larger lower class.

What does it mean for a society if the hoplite class represents approximately 40% of households (including non-free households)?

Well, this suggests first that the hoplite class is perhaps the largest or second-largest demographic group, behind only free poor citizens. It also assumes that nearly all of the propertied households – that is, the farmers who own their own farms – both served as hoplites and were members of the hoplite class.7 In particular, this imagines the ‘typical’ member of the hoplite class (this distinction between hoplites and the hoplite class will matter in a moment) as a middling farmer whose farm was likely small enough that he had to work it himself (not having enough land to live off rents or enslaved labor), essentially a modest peasant. Moreover the assumption here is that this broad hoplite ‘middle class’ dominates the demography of the polis, with very few leisured elites above them and a similar number of free poor (rather than a much larger number) below them.

And I want to note here again there is an implicit – only rarely explicit (Beloch makes the comparison directly) – effort to reason from the social model we see in the Roman Republic, where the assidui (the class liable for taxes and military service) as a group basically did include nearly all farmers with any kind of property and ‘farmers with any kind of property’ really does seem to have included the overwhelming majority of the population. There’s an effort to see Greek ‘civic militarism’ through the same frame, with the polis a community made up of small freeholding farmers banding together.8 I think scholarship has not always grappled clearly enough with the ways in which Rome is not like an overgrown polis, but in fact quite different. One of those differences is that the assidui is a much larger class of people than anything in a polis, encompassing something like 70% of all adult males (free and non-free) and perhaps as much as 90% of all free households. That is an enormous difference jumping even from 37.5% to 70%. What that figure suggests is both that Roman military participation reached much more robustly into the lower classes but also that (and we’ll come back to this in a moment) land ownership was probably more widespread among the Roman peasantry than their Greek equivalents.

In short part of what makes the Roman Republic different is not just where they draw the census lines, but the underlying structure of the countryside is meaningfully different and that has very significant impacts on the structure of Roman society.9 Taken on its own evidence, it sure looks like the organization of land in the Greek countryside was meaningfully less equal10 and included meaningfully more slaves than the Italian countryside, with significant implications for how we understand the social position of hoplites. And that brings us to the heterodox objections and thus…

Divisions Among Hoplites

The response to the ‘yeoman hoplite’ model of hoplite orthodoxy has been Hans van Wees’ assault on the ‘myth of the middle-class hoplite.’11

What van Wees does is look specifically at Athens, because unlike anywhere else in the Greek world, we have the complete ‘schedule’ of wealth classes in Athens, denominated in agricultural production. He’s able to reason from that to likely estate size for each of the classes and from there, given the size of Attica (the territory of Athens) and the supposed citizen population (estimates from 40,000 to 60,000) the total size of each wealth class in terms of households and land ownership, in order to very roughly sketch the outlines of what wealth and social class in Attica might have looked like. Our sources offer little sense that they thought Athenian class structure was ever unusual or remarkable beyond the fact that Athens was very big (in contrast to Sparta, which is treated as quite strange), so the idea here is that insights in Athenian class divisions help us understand class divisions in other poleis as well.

What he is working with are the wealth classes defined by the reforms of Solon, which we haven’t really discussed in depth but these are reported by Plutarch (Solon 16) and seem to have been the genuine property classifications for Athenian citizens, which I’ve laid out in the chart below. Wealth was defined by the amount of grain (measured in medimnoi, a dry measure unit of 51.84 liters), but for non-farmers (craftsmen and such) you qualified to the class equal to your income (so if you got paid the equivalent of 250 medimnoi of grain to be a blacksmith, you were of the zeugitai, though one imagines fairly few non-landowners qualify for reasons swiftly to become clear).

NameWealth RequirementNotional Military rolePercentage of Population Following van Wees (2001)
Pentakosiomedimnoi
(“500 Bushel Men”)
500 medimnoi or moreLeaders, Officers, Generals1.7-2.5%
Hippeis
(‘horsemen’)
400 medimnoiCavalry1.7-2.5%
Zeugitai
(‘yoked ones’)
200 medimnoi
(possibly reduced later to 150 medimnoi)
Hoplites5.6-25%
Thetes
(‘serfs’)
Less than 200 medimnoiToo poor to serve (later rowers in the navy)90-70%

Now traditionally, the zeugitai were regarded as the ‘hoplite class’ and that is sometimes supposed to be the source of their name (they were ‘yoked together’ standing in position in the phalanx), but what van Wees is working out is that although the zeugitai are supposed to be the core of the citizen polity (the thetes have limited political participation) there simply cannot be that many of them because the minimum farm necessary to produce 200 medimnoi of grain is going to be around 7.5 ha12 or roughly 18 acres which is – by peasant standards – an enormous farm, well into ‘rich peasant’ territory. It is, in fact, roughly enough farm for the owner to not do much or any farming but instead subsist entirely off of either rents or the labor of enslaved workers.13

In short, the zeugitai aren’t ‘working class’ ‘yeoman farmers’ at all, but leisure-class elitesmostly landlords, not farmers – albeit poorer than the hippeis and pentakosiomedimnoi even further above them. And that actually makes a great deal of sense: one of the ideas that pops up in Greek political philosophy – albeit in tension with another we’ll get to in a moment – is the idea that the ideal hoplite is a leisured elite and that the ideal polis would be governed exclusively by the leisured hoplites.14 Indeed, when a bunch of Greek-speakers (mostly Macedonians) find themselves suddenly in possession of vast kingdoms, this is exactly the model they try to build their military on (before getting utterly rolled by the Romans because this is actually a bad way to build a society). And of course Sparta’s citizen body, the spartiates, replicate this model as well. Often when we see elements in a Greek polis try to create an oligarchy, what they are intending to do is reduce political participation back to roughly this class – the few thousand richest households – which is not all the hoplites, but merely the richest ones.

Of course with such large farms there can’t be all that many zeugitai and indeed there don’t seem to have been. In van Wees’ model, the zeugitai-and-up classes never supply even half of the number of hoplites we see Athens deploy; they only barely crawl over half if we assume the property qualification was (as it probably was) reduced at some point to just 150 medimnoi. Instead, under most conditions the majority of hoplites are thetes, pulled from the wealthiest stratum of that class (van Wees figures these fellows probably have farms in the range of ~3 ha or so, so c. 7.5 acres). Those thetes make up the majority of hoplites on the field but do not enjoy the political privileges of the ‘hoplite class.’ And pushing against the ‘polis-of-rentier-elites’ model, we often also find Greek sources remarking that these fellows, “wiry and sunburnt” (Plato Republic 556cd, trans. van Wees), make the best soldiers because they’re more physically fit and more inured to hardship – because unlike the wealthy hoplites they actually have to work.

What the transition to the Athenian democracy meant was the full enfranchisement of this large class of thetes, both the fellows who could afford to fight as hoplites (but previously didn’t have the rights of them) and the poorer citizen thetes.

And of course this isn’t only Athens. The only other polis whose complete social system we can see with any clarity, of course, is Sparta and when we look there, what do we find? A system where political participation is limited to the rentier-elite class (the Spartiates), where there is another class of poorer hoplitesthe perioikoi, who fight as hoplites – who are entirely blocked from political participation. It appears to be the same kind of dividing line, with the difference being that the spartiates had become so dominant as to deny the perioikoi even citizenship in the polity and to physically segregate themselves (the perioikoi lived in their own communities, mostly on the marginal land). It is suggestive that this sort of divide between the wealthy ‘hoplite class’ that enjoyed distinct political privileges and other ‘working-class’ hoplites who did not (and yet even far more poor farmers who could not afford to fight as hoplites) was common in the polis.

That leaves the notion of a truly ‘broad-based’ hoplite-class that runs a ‘broad-based’ agrarian polis government that consisted of ‘middle-class’ ‘yeoman’ hoplites largely in tatters. Instead, what you may normally have is a legally defined ‘hoplite class’ that is just the richest 10-20% of the free citizen population, a distinct ‘poor hoplite’ class that might be around 20% and then a free citizen underclass of 60-70% that cannot fight as hoplites and also have very limited political participation, even though many of them do own some small amount of land.

Once again, if you’ll forgive me, that looks nothing like the Middle Roman Republic, where the capite censi (aka the proletarii) – men too poor to serve – probably amounted to only around 10% of the population and the light infantry contingent of a Roman army (where the poorest men who could serve would go) was just 25%.15 So whereas the free ‘Roman’ underclass of landless or very poor is at most perhaps 35% of (free) households,16 the equivalent class at Athens at least (and perhaps in Greece more broadly) is 60% of (free) households. Accounting for the enslaved population makes this gap wider, because it certainly seems like the percentage of the enslaved population in Greece was somewhat higher than Roman Italy. It is suddenly less of a marvel that Rome could produce military mobilizations that staggered the Greek world. Greeks are not Romans.

This is a set of conclusions that naturally has significant implications for how we understand the polis, particularly non-democratic poleis. Older scholarship often assumes that a ‘broad’ Greek oligarchy meant rule by the landholding class, but if you look at the number of enfranchised citizens, it is clear that ‘broad’ oligarchies were much narrower than this: not ‘farmer’s republics’ (as VDH supposes) but rather ‘landlord‘s republics.’17 That is quite a different sort of state! And understanding broad oligarchies in this way suddenly restores the explanatory power of what demokratia was in Greek thought: it isn’t just about enfranchising the urban poor (a class that must have been vanishingly small in outside of very large cities like Athens) but about enfranchising the small farmer, a class that would have been quite large in any polis for reasons we’ve discussed with peasants.

Via Wikimedia Commons, a Greek funerary statute from Eleusis (c. 350-325) showing a hoplite being armed by his enslaved porter. One of the indicators that slavery may have been more prevalent in Greece and that the hoplite class was wealther than their Roman equivalents is that Greek writers often seem to assume that the typical hoplite has an enslaved servant with them on campaign to carry their equipment and handle their logistics, whereas famously in the Roman army, the individual infantrymen were responsible for this.

I think there’s also a less directly important but even more profound implication here:

Wait, How Many Greeks Are There?

The attentive reader may be thinking, “wait, but Beloch’s population estimates assume that the hoplite contingent of any Greek polis represent half of its military aged (20-60) free adult males, but you’re saying that number might be much lower, perhaps just 30 or 40%?”

I actually haven’t seen any scholars directly draw this connection, so I am going to do so here. Hell, I’ve already seen this blog cited quite a few times in peer-reviewed scholarship so why not.

If it isn’t already clear, I think when it comes to the size of the hoplite class, van Wees is correct and that thought interlocks with another thought that has slowly crept into my mind and at last become lodged as my working assumption: we have significantly under-counted the number of Greeks. Or, more correctly, everyone except Mogens Herman Hansen has significantly under-counted the number of Greeks. So good job to Mogens Herman Hansen, everyone else, see me after class.

Now these days the standard demographic reference for the population of Greece is not Beloch (1886), it is Corvisier and Suder, La population de l’Antitiquité classique (2000). Unlike Beloch, they do not reason from military deployments, instead they reason from estimated population density. Now I want to be clear, they are reasoning from estimated rural population density, which is not the same as reasoning from built-up urban area18 The thing is, we can’t independently confirm rural population density from archaeology (unlike urban area estimates) so this method is entirely hostage to its assumptions. So the fact that Corvisier and Suder’s estimates fall neatly almost exactly on Beloch’s estimate (a free population of c. 3m in mainland Greece) might suggest they tweaked their assumptions to get that result. And on some level, it is a circular process, because Beloch checks his own military-based estimates with population density calculations in order to try to show that he is producing reasonable numbers. So if you accept Beloch’s density estimates at the beginning, you are going to end up back-computing Beloch’s military estimates at the end, moving through the same process in reverse order.

But you can see how we have begun to trouble the foundations of Beloch’s numbers in a few ways. First off, we’ve already noted that his multiplier to get from military aged males to total population (multiply by three) is too low (it needs to be four). Beloch didn’t have the advantage of modern model life tables or the ability to see so clearly that mortality in his own day was changing rapidly and had been doing so for a while. Adjusting for that alone has to bring the free population up to support the military numbers, to around 4m instead of 3m (so we have effectively already broken Corvisier and Suder (2000)). Then there is the question of the prevalence of the enslaved; Beloch figures 25% (1m total), but estimates certainly run higher. Bresson, L’économie de la Grèce des cités (2007/8) figures perhaps 40-50% and 30% is also a common estimate, though we are here, in practice, largely guessing. Even keeping the 25% figure Beloch uses, which we now have to acknowledge may be on the low side, we have to raise the number of enslaved to reflect the larger free population: 1.33m instead of 1m, for a new total of 5.33m instead of Beloch’s original 4m.

But then if the number of men who fight as hoplites is not, as Beloch supposes, roughly half of polis society, but closer to 40% or even less, then we would need to expand the population even further. If it is, say, 40% instead of 50%, suddenly instead of Beloch’s computation (very roughly) of 500,000 hoplites giving us 1,000,000 free adult men giving us 3,000,000 free persons, resulting in a total population of 4,000,000 including the enslaved, we have 500,000 hoplites implying 1,250,000 free adult men implying 5,000,000 free persons, to which we have to add something like 1,500,000 enslaved persons19 implying a total human population not of 3 or 4m but of c. 6,500,000.

And there’s a reason to think that might be right. The one truly novel effort at estimating the population of Greece in the last few decades (and/or century or so) was by Mogens Herman Hansen. Having spent quite some time on a large, multi-scholar project to document every known polis (resulting in M.H. Hansen and T.H. Nielsen, An Inventory of Archaic and Classical Poleis (2004)), M.H. Hansen decided to use that count as a basis to estimate population, assigning a rough estimate to the size of small, medium and large poleis – using the built-up urban area of poleis we knew relatively well – and then simply multiplying by all of the known poleis to exist at one point in time. The result, documented in M.H. Hansen, The shogtun method: the demography and ancient Greek city-state culture (2006), produced an estimate of 4-6m for mainland Greece and I think, to be frank, Hansen pulled his punch here. His method really produced the top figure in that range, a significantly higher figure that generally postulated for Greece.20

My strong suspicion – which the evidence is insufficient to confirm definitively – is that van Wees is right about the relative size of the slice of men who fight as hoplites (distinct from the ‘hoplite class’) and that M.H. Hansen is correct about the population and that these two conclusions interlock with each other to imply a rather different Greece in terms of equality and social structure than we had thought.

Looping back around to what is my repeated complaint this week: we were often conditions to think about Greek agriculture, the Greek peasantry, the Greek countryside through the lens of the much better documented Roman Italian agriculture, peasantry and countryside. After all, it is for Italy, not Greece, that we have real census data, it is the Roman period, not the classical period, that gives us sustained production of agricultural treatises. We simply have a much better picture of Roman social structures and so it was natural for scholars trying to get to grips with a quite frankly alien economic system to work from the nearest system they knew. And that was fine when we were starting from nothing but I think it is a set of assumptions that have outlived their usefulness.

This isn’t the place for this argument in full (that’s in my book), but briefly, the structure of the Roman countryside – as we come to see it in the late third/early second century BC – did not form naturally. It was instead the product of policy, by that point, of a century’s worth of colonial settlements intentionally altering, terraforming, landholding patterns to maximize the amount of heavy infantry the land could support. It was also the product of a tax-and-soldier-pay regime (tributum and stipendium) that on the net channeled resources downward to enable poorer men to serve in that heavy infantry.21 Those mechanisms are not grinding away in mainland Greece (we can leave Greek colonial settlement aside for now, as it is happening outside of mainland Greece), so we have no reason to expect the structure of the countryside to look the same either.

In short the Romans are taking steps to ‘flatten out’ their infantry class (but not their aristocracy, of course), to a degree, which we do not see in Greece. Instead, where we get an ideology of economically equal citizenry, it is an ideology of equality within the leisured elite, an ‘equality of landlords’ not an equality of farmers. We should thus not expect wealth and land distribution to be as ‘flat’ in Greece as in Italy – and to be clear, wealth distribution in Italy was not very flat by any reasonable standard, there was enormous disparity between the prima classis (‘first class’) of infantry and the poorest Roman assidui. But it was probably flatter than in Greece within the infantry class (again, the Roman aristocracy is a separate question), something that seems confirmed given that the militarily active class in Roman Italy is so much larger and more heavily concentrated into the heavy infantry.22 Consequently, we ought not assume that we can casually estimate the total population of Greece from hoplite deployments, supposing that the Greeks like the Romans, expected nearly all free men to serve. Instead, the suggestion of our evidence was that in Greece, as in many pre-modern societies, military service (and thus political power) was often the preserve of an exclusive affluent class.

Implications

But returning to Greece, I would argue that accepting the heterodox position on the social status of hoplites has some substantial implications. First, it suggests that there was, in fact, a very real and substantial social division within the body of hoplites, between wealth hoplites who were of the ‘hoplite class’ as politically understood and poor hoplites who fought in the same way but only enjoyed a portion of the social status implied. That division suddenly makes sense of the emergence of demokratia in poleis that were more rural than Athens (which is all of them). The typical polis was thus not a ‘farmer’s republic’ but a landlord’s republic.

At the same time, this also substantially alters the assumptions about ‘yeoman hoplites’ who have to rush home to pull in their harvests and who are, in effect, ‘blue-collar warriors.’ Instead, the core of the hoplite army was a body – not a majority, but a significant minority – of leisured elites who had slaves or tenants doing most of their farming for them. What kept hoplite armies from campaigning year-round was as much poor logistics as yeoman economics (something clear in the fact that spartiates – by definition leisured elites – didn’t campaign year-round either).

Finally, if we extend this thinking into our demographic analysis, we have to accept a much larger population in Greece, with all of the expansion happening below the men who fought as hoplites (both the hoplite class and our poorer working-class hoplites). It suggests a remarkably less equal social structure in Greece – indeed, perhaps less equal than the structure in Roman Italy – which in turn significantly caveats the way we often understand the Greek polis as a citizen community relatively more egalitarian and free than the absolute monarchies which pervaded Egypt and the Near East.

And of course, for one last return to my pet complaint in this post, it should reinforce our sense that Greek are not Romans and that we cannot casually supply the habits, economics or social structures of one society to the other to fill in gaps in our evidence. In particular, the assumption that the Greeks and Romans essentially share a civic and military tradition is a thing that would need to be proved, not assumed.23

Links 1/9/26

Links for you. Science:

Is it really a super flu year? (UK based)
This HIV Expert Refused To Censor Data, Then Quit the CDC
Changes to NSF peer review
Well Dr. Stephanie Seneff, 2025 is Over. Did Glyphosate Turn Half of All Children Autistic?
How Ancient Indigenous Societies Made Today’s Amazon More Resilient
The U.S. Is on the Verge of Meteorological Malpractice

Other:

The Immanent Joy of Detrumpification: As the president graffitis his name to beloved institutions and builds monuments to his own vanity, we must focus on how much fun it will be to tear it all down. (excellent)
Inside the New Fast Track to a Presidential Pardon
Trump’s favorite excuse in 2025: “I don’t know”
Turns out David Brooks didn’t really mean any of it
Defenders of “American” Civilization Have Never Encountered It
Demolition Man: The remaking of Trump’s Washington, DC
As A.I. Companies Borrow Billions, Debt Investors Grow Wary
Neighbors are standing up for immigrants
Bari Weiss is Trump’s 60 Minutes stooge. She’s just one example of the larger moral corruption of the news.
Money Can’t Buy You
Top 10 reasons the GOP is screwed in 2026
Inside the North Carolina GOP’s decade-long push to seize power from the state’s democratic governor
Why JD Vance Can’t Ride Whiteness to the White House
He Said, Xi Said: A sobering conversation about the A.I. arms race between Washington and Beijing: what’s real, what’s overblown, and what China really wants.
How Corporations Convinced America that Litter is Our Fault
Hollywood’s Villain of the Year Is… Sam Altman
Why I Quit Streaming And Got Back Into Cassettes
The ICE Storm: A candid conversation with L.A. police chief Jim McDonnell about the complicated reality of ICE raids, hyperbolic crime narratives, and preparing for the World Cup and 2028 Olympics in the second Trump era.
If Democrats Campaign on Stopping Scam Calls, They’ll Be Re-Elected Forever
“The Mini Mamdanis Are Coming”: Dan Goldman, the popular resistance-lib congressman repping downtown Manhattan and much of brownstone Brooklyn, was a star on MSNBC. But in a year in which his rival was just endorsed by Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, Democrats fear he could be among the biggest names to fall in a Tea Party–style reckoning.
Defiance in a Time of Cowardice
Stop Defending Bari Weiss. It is impossible to take her actions at face value given the context in which she is operating.
“Construction can’t continue”: South Texas builders say ICE arrests have upended industry
Kennedy Center vows to sue musician who canceled performance over Trump name change
We Don’t Seem to be Making America Healthy Again
“Border security is the primary element of national security.”
Elon Musk warns ‘people will die’ after Mamdani taps Lillian Bonsignore as FDNY commissioner (lol who cares: “The FDNY’s two major unions both enthusiastically support Bonsignore’s appointment as commissioner, lauding her as having proven experience as an emergency responder who also led EMS through the crisis of the pandemic.”)
Patel to close FBI’s Hoover building permanently (taking the USAID building…)
My Open Letter To That Open Letter About AI In Writing And Publishing
A California National Guard pilot warned about Trump for years. Now she’s being forced out

[RIDGELINE] My 2026 New York Times Pick — Nagasaki

Ridgeline subscribers —

Nagasaki pivots around its harbor, into which flows the Uragami River. Mountains covered in small homes and shops rise alongside; at night, the whole valley sparkles like a jewel. An easy ropeway ride up Inasayama lets you take it all in. In the afternoon, the city bustles with locals.

It’s because of these reasons and many more, that I selected Nagasaki for my 2026 New York Times “52 Places to Go” destination. I’m delighted to see it make the list! (We don’t know if our picks have made it or not until the list is published.) I’ve been to Nagasaki five or six times over the last twelve years, and it’s always felt like a special place, but it wasn’t until I was having coffee with Sam Holden a few years ago, that his passion (he’s a verifiable Nagasaki (and Onomichi) maniac), for the city inspired me to take an even deeper look. So I went back, and it was, indeed, great.

The Stick in the Stream

Come winter in the Santa Cruz mountains, the rain runs down the hills. When the rains start, I throw on my rain gear, grab my shovel, and tromp around the property. My goal: make sure the run-off creeks and streams run unimpeded and in a better direction.

At the beginning of the season, this is work. There’s almost a year of fallen detritus in these small run-off creeks. Leaves, sticks, and branches. Often, small plants have grown. Sometimes I leave them, sometimes I remove them. During that first rain, the detritus clogs the usual run-off streams, which is where I show up. With my shovel in hand, I quickly shovel the detritus away, and the water runs down the hill.

I like to solve problems, and the act of fixing creeks directly links effort to a satisfying outcome.

The Thing About Water

Here’s what you need to know about water running down the hill. It’s going to do its thing whether I’m tinkering or not. The combination of gravity and the stubborn erosion provided by water means a creek will slowly be carved into anything, regardless of my good intentions. Think the Grand Canyon… except way smaller.

During the early rains, when a year’s detritus is sitting on the ground getting in the way, there is a critical blockage that does matter. Mountain roads. The ideal state is that water runs alongside the road to the nearest outlet or drain, which redirects the water under the road and into a stream that eventually flows into a lake or ocean. When the run-off next to the road is blocked, it can either go around the blockage or, and this is the problem, run across the road.

In heavy rain, this cross-the-road blockage scenario can be an issue. See, water is just going to do its thing. Problem is, on this new side of the road, water hasn’t been running, so it’s making up a new path dictated by gravity. This newly directed flow merrily crosses the street, finds the lower part, and runs down the hill. Sometimes, usually, this is a non-issue, but sometimes the run-off on the wrong side of the road quickly erodes the new side of the road.

In a big storm, what starts as blocked run-off can turn into a failed road.

Except there’s me. With my shovel.

Having spent days of my life cleaning run-off creeks, I’ve triaged a lot of clogs — small and large. A moderately sized blockage on the side of the road looks like a big mess. You’ve got the backed-up water, in front of that, a huge mess of leaves and other floatables, and in front of that, you’ve got the dam. This is the problem. It’s a collection of sturdy sticks and branches that have combined into a wall, which, when combined with the soft, floating leaves, is now blocking a majority of the run-off and forcing the redirect.

My shovel and I used to attack these blockages from where the water flows in, but I’ve learned over the years that the better way is to attack from the “dry” side of the blockage. Why? Because
quite often, there is a lone stick or branch that is 90% of your problem. This is the one key object that started this entire blockage situation. Yes, the majority of the problem comes from everything else latching onto that one stick, but…

Sometimes…

Not every time…

You pull a single stick, the dam breaks, and the water starts flowing. That moment — stick out, water flowing — stayed with me.

The Stick Thesis

I’m late on my New Year’s post. Some of my favorite posts show up in January. Fresh starts. Full of potential. Blank slates. It’s why New Year’s resolutions feel timely.

I sent a draft version of my New Year’s post to the [leadership newsletter], but I don’t think you’ll ever read that piece. The pitch was about selecting a New Year’s resolution that had immensely satisfying feedback loops. Failure to find this feedback loop means your New Year’s resolution will be a dabble. 30 days of inspiration following 30 days of degradation. A good resolution must give an immense sense of accomplishment and satisfaction.

The hard question is: how does one find these satisfying feedback loops? I had two observations on this topic as I tugged and pulled a redwood branch from the base of a dam blockage on a nearby road, which resulted in an immediate fix to the flow.

First, “Gosh, this is fun. I could do this all day.” The act of helping is immensely satisfying to me.

Second, for every potential New Year’s resolution that has been bouncing around my head for the past two months, what was the stick at the base of the dam? Exercising every day. Yes, swell idea, but what am I actually trying to fix? What’s driving the perception of the need to exercise? It’s not just staying in shape; it’s that as I age, I want the next fifty years to be as compelling as the first.

My stick thesis is simple: your habits will only change if you seek the single stick, the blockage, the core problem that is blocking everything else. Seeing that stick not only gives you a place to start, but the discovery will better motivate you when you yank it, and the water starts flowing.

Happy New Year.

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  • tags
  • I was writing HTML by hand today and was reminded that closing <p> and <li> tags is optional, which I learned about from this blog post: You are not required to close your <p>, <li>, <img>, or <br> tags in HTML.

    It feels so much easier to just write the <li> tag at the beginning (as if it’s a bullet point) without worrying about the </li>.

    My HTML linter doesn’t like it, but my HTML linter doesn’t like a lot of things and often I think I should just turn it off.

    Sentences to ponder

    France will delay this year’s Group of 7 summit to avoid a conflict with the mixed martial arts event planned at the White House on Donald Trump’s birthday.

    Here is the article.

    The post Sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

           

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    Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3

    The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.
    The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.5 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.3 trillion.
    ...
    Household debt increased 4.1 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent.
    Household Net Worth as Percent of GDP Click on graph for larger image.

    The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  

    Net worth increased $6.1 trillion in Q3.  As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is still below the peak in 2021.

    This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

    Household Percent EquityThe second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

    Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

    In Q3 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 71.6% - down from 72.0% in Q2, 2025

    Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

    Household Real Estate Assets Percent GDP The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

    Mortgage debt increased by $108 billion in Q3.

    Mortgage debt is up $2.99 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 43.9% - down from Q2 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.

    The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q3 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

    The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

    Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

    A brief excerpt:
    During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
    ...
    Months of SupplyHere is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

    In Q3 2025, mortgage debt increased $108 billion, unchanged from $108 billion in Q2. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

    However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

    The Week Observed: January 8, 2026

    What City Observatory Did This Week

     

    Exposing IBR’s $17.7 billion secret:  City Observatory obtained previously un-released documents showing that the cost of the proposed Interstate Bridge Replacement project has ballooned a maximum of $7.5 billion to as much as $17.7 billion.  The huge escalation in costs seem almost certain to doom this troubled project.

    IBR officials has acknowledged for two years that project cost estimates were out of date, and repeatedly missed their own deadlines for providing updated estimates.  Officials presented outdated estimates to a joint Oregon-Washington legislative oversight committee in September and December, even as they had new, higher estimates in-hand.

    This critical financial information about the cost of the largest transportation project in the region has been delayed and concealed from legislators and the public, even as the Legislature debated a major transportation finance package.  The rising cost create a giant new financial gap for the project, ranging from at least $5 billion to as much as $14 billion.

    These huge cost increases come at a particularly bad time for Oregon and Washington:  Oregon failed to pass a transportation package during the regular session of the 2025 Legislature, and the band-aid measure it enacted in a special session generated 200,000 signatures for referral, prompting Governor Tina Kotek to call for its repeal, which will lead to big ODOT budget cuts and layoffs.  Meanwhile, Washington Governor Bob Ferguson is proposing issuing $3 billion in debt to finance an operation and maintenance backlog.  Neither state has the needed billions to finance this project, as they scramble to maintain current services.

    Along the way, IBR officials and consultants have billed close to $300 million for their work on a project which is now clearly not affordable.  And new cost estimates have added a further $1.2 billion for staff and consultant work to the 2022 estimate, with these “non-construction” costs rising six times faster than construction costs.

    In the News

    Willamette Week quoted City Observatory’s Joe Cortright in their article “Interstate Bridge Staff Hid Information About Ballooning Cost of Giant Highway Project”

    Bike Portland interviewed Joe Cortright about this story.

    a

    $17.7 Billion: Exploding costs doom I-5 bridge replacement

    The new estimate for the cost of the Interstate Bridge Replacement project has more than doubled to $13.6 billion.  The cost is expected to range between $12.2 billion and $17.7 billion.  The new estimate is 130% higher than the previous (2022) estimate.  City Observatory obtained this estimate from previously unreleased documents it obtained via a public records request.

    If IBR chooses to build a moveable span bridge because the Coast Guard will not vacate its earlier decision requiring a 178′ navigation clearance, the total cost of the project would be an estimated $14.6 billion, and could range as high as $19 billion.

    IBR’s previous estimate, made in 2022, was that the project would cost about $6 billion (with a cost range from $5 to $7.5 billion).

    Willamette Week

    Interstate Bridge Staff Hid Information About Ballooning Cost of Giant Highway Project”

    has a detailed story explaining the new estimate, and providing additional context.

    We now know why IBR has delayed more than two years releasing new cost estimates–it is apparent that there is essentially no way Oregon and Washington could finance the bridge.  The new cost estimates create a financial hole ranging from $5 billion to as much as $14 billion.  This vast new liability likely dooms this project.

    These huge cost increases come at a particularly bad time for Oregon and Washington:  Oregon failed to pass a transportation package during the regular session of the 2025 Legislature, and the band-aid measure it enacted in a special session generated 200,000 signatures for referral, prompting Governor Tina Kotek to call for its repeal, which will lead to big ODOT budget cuts and layoffs.  Meanwhile, Washington Governor Bob Ferguson is proposing issuing $3 billion in debt to finance an operation and maintenance backlog.  Neither state has the needed billions to finance this project, as they scramble to maintain current services.

    Along the way, IBR officials and consultants have billed close to $300 million for their work on a project which is now clearly not affordable.  And new cost estimates have added a further $1.2 billion for staff and consultant work to the 2022 estimate, with these “non-construction” costs rising six times faster than construction costs.

    IBR officials continued to keep rising project costs a secret, even as the Oregon and Washington legislatures wrestled with major transportation finance bill.  IBR officials had these new estimates in hand, even as they testified to a bi-state committee overseeing the project in September and December of 2025.

    IBR’s New Cost Estimate:  From $7.5 billion to $17.7 Billion (or more)

    City Observatory obtained documents on the cost estimate from a public records request.  These documents have not been previously publicly released.

    In an August 26, 2025 email from Alex Mannion to John Messina, contains two attached an Excel spreadsheets entitled “IBR Program Estimate Fixed Span – 8.15.2025.xlsx,” and “IBR Program Estimate Moveable Span – 8.15.2025.xlsx.”  These spreadsheets provides costing for the Interstate Bridge Project, broken out into 29 different construction packages; there are two separate tabs, with extensive detail, for each of the 29 packages that describe the basis of the estimate.  The summary of all these estimates is provided in two tables.

    One table shows that range of cost estimates, the most likely cost (labeled “Opinion of Probable Cost”) and a high (+30%) and a low (-10 percent) estimate.  This table shows the “Base Costs”–less any explicit adjustments for identified risk factors, the “Draft 2025 CEVP 2025$” (that estimate adjusted for the specific risks that IBR analyzed, expressed in current (2025) dollars, and the “Year of Expenditure” cost estimate–that 2025 figure adjusted for inflation between 2025 and the year in which expenditures would actually be expected to occur.

    This table shows that the expected cost of the fixed span version project, in year of expenditure (YOE) dollars would be $13.6 billion, and would likely range between $12.2 billion and $17.7 billion.

    A second table compares this new 2025 fixed span estimate with the previous (2022) estimate.  These figures are entirely in “year of expenditure” dollars, i.e. directly comparable to the last row on the table above.  It is broken down by major category of expenditure (CN – construction, Non-CN – chiefly professional services, and ROW – Right of Way).  These three categories make up the “base cost” estimate, which is then adjusted for the impact of identified risks.

    The total expected cost of the project, in year of expenditure dollars, has more than doubled, from $5.9 billion in 2022, to $13.6 billion in 2025.  The difference (delta) is an increase of nearly $7.7 billion.

    What this means is that the estimator’s “most likely” estimate of project costs today $13.6 billion, is more $6 billion more than their 2022 estimate of the “highest” possible cost ($7.5 billion).  The project’s expected maximum cost of $17.7 billion is now more than $10 billion more than the 2022 estimate of maximum cost.

    Staff and consultant costs are the fastest increasing component of the new estimate

    Overall, the total cost of the fixed span design has more than doubled, from about $6 billion to about $13.6 billion.  But estimated construction costs have increased more slowly than overall costs.   Construction costs are predicted to rise by about 68 percent over the earlier estimate.  “Non-construction” costs–which are chiefly the costs for engineering consultants and staff time–are predicted to increase six times faster than actual construction costs, by 406 percent, compared to just 68 percent for construction.  Higher non-construction costs constitute a $1.2 billion increase in total project costs.

    The report confirms that the $1.2 billion increase is for staff and consultant expense and in part reflects the long duration of the project, which is now expected to continue for nearly 20 years, to 2045.

    Non-Construction

    •  Extended program duration significantly increases labor and program management costs for both agency and consultant roles.

    Work on the Interstate Bridge project is done overwhelmingly by consultants.  A study of state highway procurement published by the Brookings Institution in 2024 concluded that reliance on consultants drives up costs, because consultants lack experience and have misaligned incentives.

    . . . there is broad agreement that state DOTs have become more understaffed and that reliance on consultants drives up costs. Survey respondents attribute a lack of details in project plans to both a lack of time or experience of DOT engineers and the use of consultants. When there is not enough specificity in the plans the risk to the contractor increases, increasing bids. Moreover, whenever the scope of a project changes this initiates a costly and time-consuming renegotiation process. Survey respondents agree that such changes are a major contributor to costs. .  . A lack of capacity at the DOT can hurt the quality of project plans, either from under-staffing in-house or from outsourcing to consultants with limited institutional knowledge and misaligned incentives.

    Zachary Liscow, Will Nober and Cailin Slattery, Procurement and Infrastructure, July 11, 2024, Brookings Institution.  (Emphasis added)

    “Misaligned incentives” means that consultants have different incentives than the state agency hiring them.  Consultants make more when the project is larger, takes longer, and is more expensive–all things that drive up costs.  This is the classic “principal-agent” problem, and by delegating nearly the entire process of profit-motivated consultants, and failing to diligently and expertly supervise them, it is little surprise that the costs of this project has exploded.

    Costs could go even higher

    As alarmingly high as these new cost estimates are, the cost of the IBR may be even higher.  This is the third in the series of cost estimates for the IBR; each successive cost estimate has exceeded the supposed maximum of the range of the previous set of estimates.  The 2020 estimate said the maximum cost would be $4.8 billion–the 2022 estimate said the most likely cost would be $6.0 billion, and the maximum cost would be $7.5 billion; as noted this new estimate says most likely cost is well outside the range of the previous estimate (at $13.6 billion) and could reach $17.7 billion.  Based on this pattern one would not be surprised to find a 2028 estimate predicting a cost of $20 billion or more.  As we’ve frequently noted at City Observatory, the Oregon Department of Transportation has a two decade long track record of dramatically underestimating project costs and routinely experiencing 100 percent cost overruns.

    Even the new estimates may be too low.  In preparing these estimates, project staff were instructed to use the low end of unit costs (for inputs like concrete and steel) in preparing their estimates, which as the report notes, is not standard practice.

    The fact that IBR cost estimates have been hidden or delayed  for more than two years gives one little confidence in the process.  In January 2024, City Observatory warned that the price of the Interstate Bridge Project could reach $9 billion.  The Interstate Bridge Project has repeatedly delayed releasing a new cost estimate.  As we wrote last month

    The truth is that IBR project officials have a very, very good idea of the range of probable costs of both the fixed span and movable span options.  The IBR has had a team of staff and consultants working on cost issues for years:  this is an ongoing part of project planning, and not an episodic effort that only happens after one or two external bureaucratic hurdles are crossed.  IBR, as their outgoing project director has said, is building “basically the same project” as the old Columbia River Crossing, and virtually none of the major features of the project have changed in the past three years.  It’s also important to keep in mind that the cost estimate is not a single precise dollar amount; rather it is a wide range:  the current estimate (produced three years ago) has a mid-point of $6 billion, with a range of costs running from $5 billion to $7.5 billion).  It beggars belief that a project that has spent $273 million on consultants over the past seven years doesn’t have a pretty good idea within a billion dollars or so of what the current estimated cost of this project is (with an allowance for the added cost of a movable span option).   The reality here is not that IBR doesn’t know about how much this will cost, it is that they really don’t want anybody else to know how much it will cost.

    A $5 to $14 billion dollar funding gap

     

    IBR’s financial plans have been based on the assumption that the project will cost between $5 and $7.5 billion.  The much higher price creates a huge financial gap for the IBR.  At the September 2025 meeting of the Joint Oregon and Washington Legislative Committees, IBR presented this financial plan:

    While IBR predicts that it may have as much as $7 billion in available revenue, that rests on a number of assumptions, in particular, that federal grants and toll revenues will be fully realized.  While federal grants of more than $2.1 billion are labeled “committed” the bulk of these grant funds face a September 2026 deadline for the start of project construction, or they could be cancelled.  A more pessimistic scenario could see those federal grants be rescinded, a transit grant fail to be awarded, and toll revenues come in at the lower range of estimates.  This would mean that IBR would have only about $3.3 billion in available revenues.  We present a range of possible revenue scenarios based on these alternatives, ranging from pessimistic to optimistic.

     

    Combining the range of revenue estimates with the range of construction cost estimates shows the size of the financial gap that the program now faces.  Under the most optimistic revenue scenario, $7 billion, and the new base cost estimate, $13.6 billion, the project faces a likely $6.5 billion funding gap.  A more pessimistic, but entirely possible scenario, is that revenues fall to as little as $3.3 billion and costs balloon to as much as $17.7 billion, which would leave a $14.4 billion funding gap.  Even under the most optimistic revenue and lowest current cost assumptions, the fixed span version of the project still faces a $5.2 billion funding gap.

    Oregon and Washington bear the entire financial risk of the project.  It should be noted that the two states and not the federal government, bear the entire financial risk of cost overruns and revenue shortfalls.  The federal government is legally able to rescind nearly all of the funding for the project in the event it fails to meet its September 30, 2026 construction start deadline.  Tolling may produce only $1.1 billion.  If the project were to proceed, Oregon and Washington would be fully responsible for paying all of these additional costs of the project.  Oregon and Washington would be on the hook for paying at least $2.6 billion each, and potentially as much as $7.2 billion each.

    A moveable span would cost even more

    The estimates presented above are for a 116′ vertical clearance fixed span crossing.  IBR also has estimated the cost of a movable span.  IBR proposes to build a moveable span in the event that the US Coast Guard does not approve its request for a 116′ navigation clearance.  A moveable span would cost considerably more than a fixed span.  The “base”–most likely–estimate is that a moveable span  would cost $14.6 billion (about $1.3 billion more than the fixed span) and could cost as much as $19 billion (again, about $1.3 billion more than the “high” estimate for a fixed span).

    Whether the moveable span would cost as much more than a fixed span as shown here seems to be undetermined.  IBR has two different estimates of the additional costs associated with the fixed span.  One is part of the CEVP (shown above) and the other is the result of an independent “moveable span workshop”

    IBR consultants at Parametrix summarized the decision to conduct two separate estimates of movable span costs on July 14

    Key Notes:  An independent evaluation of the movable span bridge is to be conducted, separate from the CEVP estimate.

    Email;  From:  Ben Crawley RE: IBR Movable Span Estimate, July 14, 2025 at 3:03 PM PDT. To: Robert Turton

    Elsewhere, IBR documents show there are alternate estimates showing in added cost of the moveable span would be between $100 and $300 million.


    Source:  Interstate Bridge Project, Q2 2025 Quarterly Risk Update, September 8, 2025

    This  estimate was the result of a special “Movable Span Risk Workshop” held on July 30, 2025.  The new estimate reported that the most likely cost associated with a moveable span bridge would be $200 million additional, rather than the $500 million additional that IBR officials have repeated publicly.

    Building a Moveable Span will take even longer

    According to draft project schedules, it looks like a moveable span will take even longer to complete.  A fixed span should be complete by the third quarter of 2033. (See item labeled  CRB-16  “Complete  CRB  NB”)

    A moveable span would take as much as an additional two years, until the third quarter of 2035.  

    A key reason for the delay is that the moveable span will take additional time to design, and IBR will miss the scheduled In Water Work window that runs from September 2027 to April 2028; in-water work on a moveable span wouldn’t start until the In Water Work Window that begins in September 2028.  These In-Water Work Windows are shaded yellow in the project timeline.  (Construction of the new bridges is expected to take four seven-month long in-water work windows).

     

    Fixed Span Base Costs by Package and Major Category

    It’s important to know that while the estimates obtained from IBR are labeled “Draft” they are not rough or partial  work products.  The cost estimates presented in these spreadsheets are extremely detailed.  For example, the following table summarizes the cost estimates for each of the 29 proposed construction packages, broken into three categories of cost (construction, engineering, and right-of-way).  The table also shows the division of costs by state, and the proportions allocated to the highway and transit portions of the project.  (Each of the 29 packages also has a separate supporting spreadsheet showing the basis of that estimate).  All of this work is subject to revision and adjustment in the “Cost Estimate Validation Process” or CEVP, but is unlikely to change significantly from the values shown here, and the  “most probable value” is certainly going to be within the range ($12.25 billion to $17.7 billion) shown in these estimates.

     

    Note:  This commentary has been revised to correct an error in the date on which construction must begin to maintain federal grant funding eligibility.

     

    L3Harris announces $845 million majority sale of Space Propulsion and Power Systems business

    A Dual Engine Centaur upper stage for Atlas V nears completion at the factory in Decatur, Alabama. The RL10 engine marked 60 years of flight on Nov. 27, 2023. Image: United Launch Alliance

    On Monday, L3Harris Technologies, announced the intended sale of a majority stake in its Space Propulsion and Power Systems business to AE Industrial Partners, shifting control over one of its marquee engines: the RL10.

    L3Harris, based in Melbourne, Florida, said the deal, valued at $845 million, is expected to closed during the second half of 2026. If approved by regulators, AE Industrial, a private investment firm based in Boca Raton, Florida, would control 60 percent of a new space technology business, which it said will be named “Rocketdyne,” reviving the standalone name for the company that was originally founded as a division of North American Aviation in 1955.

    The trademark “Aerojet Rocketdyne” will still be retained by L3Harris.

    “L3Harris is strongly committed to the Department of War’s (DoW) vision for a faster, more agile defense industrial base while remaining laser-focused on driving value for our shareholders and customers,” said Christopher Kubasik, Chairman and CEO of L3Harris, in a press release. “This transaction further aligns the L3Harris portfolio with DoW core mission priorities.”

    Four RL10 engines delivered to NASA for use on the Space Launch System upper stage. Credit: Aerojet Rocketdyne

    Notably, L3Harris stated explicitly in its press release that “L3Harris’ RS-25 engine business is excluded from the sale.” Kirk Konert, Managing Partner at AE Industrial said a focus for the the new Rocketdyne business will be to focus on the RL10, the upper stage engine used for both NASA’s Space Launch System rocket and United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan and Atlas 5 rockets.

    “Rocketdyne’s growth roadmap includes international expansion, including Artemis-related programs, across its power, avionics, and in-space propulsion portfolios,” Konert said. “The company is one of few with the heritage and credibility required to execute against the ambitious timelines of the Artemis Program, and we are excited to support both the U.S. and its allies in that mission.”

    Konert said Rocketdyne will also look to attract new entrants to the rocket launch space to use the RL10 engine “as new vehicles come online.

    “Upper-stage engines are tightly integrated into vehicle architectures, so we do not expect wholesale engine swaps by current operators,” Konert said. “As future launch manufacturers emerge, we plan to partner Rocketdyne’s management with AE’s business development team to pursue next-generation upper-stage opportunities.”

    Konert said Rocketdyne will focus on modernizing and ramping up production of the RL10 engine, leaning into its more than 15 years of experience with additive manufacturing and expanding it out to other products within the Rocketdyne portfolio.

    “Beyond additive manufacturing, our focus is on practical throughput and scalability levers,” Konert said. “These include increasing inline and batch testing to relieve production bottlenecks, selectively rationalizing product lines to drive economies of scale, and pursuing targeted [mergers and acquisitions] to internalize long-lead or capacity-constrained components.”

    This is far from AE Industrial’s first foray into investments within the space sector. It also has significant investments in Redwire Space, which it created in 2020, along with American Pacific Corporation, Calca Solutions, Firefly Aerospace and York Space Systems.

    ★ Let’s Call a Murder a Murder

    The New York Times has frame-by-frame analysis, from three angles, of the murder of 37-year-old Renee Good in Minneapolis yesterday. She was shot to death by a still-unnamed mask-wearing ICE agent Jonathan Ross, with what was obviously no justification. The shooting is, justifiably, national news. I’m sure you’ve read about it. But this Times analysis coolly and calmly shows just how outrageous it was, and how preposterous the claims from President Trump and Secretary of Hats Kristi Noem are ostensibly attempting to defend it — both as an act of self-defense by the cowardly ICE agent and, even more absurdly, as an act of “domestic terrorism” by Good, who was attempting to do nothing more than drive away from the scene.

    George Orwell, in 1984: “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” Let’s stop pussyfooting around what happened here. This ICE agent murdered Renee Good, in broad daylight, in front of many witnesses and multiple cameras. Trust the evidence of your eyes and ears.


    But I want to add another note. The main footage here comes from bystander Caitlin Callenson. Here’s her full 4m:25s footage, uncensored, hosted — with credit, and I hope, permission — on the YouTube account of Minnesota Reformer. Be warned that it shows Good being shot to death (albeit sans gore), and contains many loud profanities. This is very good and clear footage. It is difficult viewing but you should watch it. Callenson was very close to Good’s vehicle. I’d say about 30 feet or so. You can see why she thought to start filming before the murderous agent drew his gun and fired. The scene was already chaotic. But then, after the murderous agent fired three shots — just 30 or 40 feet in front of Callenson — Callenson had the courage and conviction to stay with the scene and keep filming. Not to run away, but instead to follow the scene. To keep filming. To continue documenting with as best clarity as she could, what was unfolding.

    I’d like to think I’d have done the same. I’m not sure at all that I would have. I definitely might have been using my iPhone to shoot video of the incident up until the shots were fired. But when that happened, my mind would immediately have turned to “These agents are scared and angry and out of control, and that one just went psycho and fired his gun unprovoked. That guy is just as likely to shoot more people as he was the woman he just shot. His angry, scared, obviously undertrained colleagues might join in. And the most likely people they’ll shoot next are people pointing cameras at them.” I do not know what I would have done in that moment. I hope I never find out. But I know with certainty what I would immediately think, which is that if I choose to continue shooting video of the incident, there is a very good chance one of them will shoot or brutalize me next. It would make more sense to shoot someone filming the scene than it did to shoot Renee Good in the first place. Good’s killing was utterly senseless. Shooting a witness with a running camera and then destroying their phone to eliminate the evidence (and a witness) would make some sense. Sick sense, but sense.

    But in that moment of pandemonium and obvious danger to herself, Callenson didn’t merely continue filming. She didn’t merely stand her ground. She proceeded into the scene to get closer to Good’s vehicle after it crashed into a parked car, Mr. Brown-style. She pointed her camera directly at the only-partially-masked face of the murderous agent as he walked away from Good’s crashed vehicle, then got into an unmarked Chevy Tahoe and just fled from the scene like the obvious coward he is. I presume the murderous agent will soon be identified, and Callenson’s clear steady-handed footage may be the reason why. [Update: While I was finishing this post, the Minnesota Star Tribune identified and named him — Jonathan Ross — and indeed, it was Callenson’s footage that made his identification possible.] And, to top it off, all the while — starting before the shooting — Callenson was screaming “Shame!” in the faces of these agents, and calling them out on their abhorrent indefensible actions. To each of their directives to her, she responds, with the definition of righteous anger, “You shot someone in the fucking face!” (Emily Heller, Renee Good’s neighbor, showed similar courage, telling an ICE agent who refused to allow a citizen physician to check on Good (who laid dying or dead inside her car), as she filmed the scene, “How can I relax, you just killed my fucking neighbor! You shot her in the fucking face! You killed my fucking neighbor! How do you show up to work every day?”)

    Callenson’s courage in the face of obvious danger is just remarkable. My god. She rose to the moment in a crucible of chaos, insanity, and murderous violence. We all need to think about what she did, to really imagine ourselves in the same moment — the danger she stood up to, and the principles she stood up for — if we hope to do the same if a similar moment comes to us.

    And, to top it off, she had the presence of mind to shoot her historic footage in widescreen.

    Palo Alto Crosswalk Signals Had Default Passwords

    Palo Alto’s crosswalk signals were hacked last year. Turns out the city never changed the default passwords.

    Jim Moylan and the Moylan Arrow

    Ben Cohen, writing last week for The Wall Street Journal (gift link):

    One rainy day 40 years ago, Moylan was headed to a meeting across Ford’s campus and hopped in a company car. When he saw the fuel tank was nearly empty, he stopped at a gas pump. What happened next is something that’s happened to all of us: He realized that he’d parked on the wrong side.

    Unlike the rest of us, he wasn’t infuriated. He was inspired. By the time he pulled his car around, he was already thinking about how to solve this everyday inconvenience that drives people absolutely crazy. And because the gas pump wasn’t covered by an overhead awning, he was also soaking wet. But when he got back to the office, Moylan didn’t even bother taking off his drenched coat when he started typing the first draft of a memo.

    “I would like to propose a small addition,” he wrote, “in all passenger car and truck lines.” The proposal he had in mind was a symbol on the dashboard that would tell drivers which side of the car the gas tank was on. [...]

    As soon as they read his memo, they began prototyping his little indicator that would be known as the Moylan Arrow. Within months, it was on the dashboard of Ford’s upcoming models. Within years, it was ripped off by the competition. Before long, it was a fixture of just about every car in the world.

    What a fantastic story. I’m old enough that I remember learning to drive on cars that didn’t have the Moylan Arrow. Then I remember spotting one sometime in the 1990s, and wondering if I’d just never noticed them before. But no: this seemingly incredibly obvious design element had only recently been invented. The Journal has a copy of Moylan’s original memo, and it’s a delight to read. Clear, concise, persuasive.

    “Society loves the founder who builds new companies, like Henry Ford,” Ford CEO Jim Farley told me. “I would argue that Jim Moylan is an equally compelling kind of disrupter: an engineer in a large company who insisted on making our daily lives better.”

    These days, there are two types of drivers: the ones aware of the Moylan Arrow and the ones who get to find out.

    Rest in peace, Jim Moylan.

     ★ 

    The New York Times Profiles John Ternus

    Kalley Huang and Tripp Mickle, writing for The New York Times (gift link):

    Threading the needle between adding new bells and whistles to Apple’s products while watching the bottom line has defined the careful, low-profile style of Mr. Ternus, who joined Apple in 2001. He is now considered by some company insiders to be the front-runner to replace Tim Cook, Apple’s longtime chief executive, if Mr. Cook decides to step aside.

    Apple last year began accelerating its planning for Mr. Cook’s succession, according to three people close to the company who spoke on the condition of anonymity about Apple’s confidential deliberations. Mr. Cook, 65, has told senior leaders that he is tired and would like to reduce his workload, the people said. Should he step down, Mr. Cook is likely to become the chairman of Apple’s board, according to three people close to the company.

    Cook may well be preparing to retire as CEO. He is 65! But it doesn’t ring true to me that he’s telling “senior leaders” that he’s tired. First, I’ve heard otherwise from actual senior leaders at the company. Second, any senior leader he’d tell that to, if true, wouldn’t share it.

    It seems to me that aside from the utterly normal and plainly obvious speculation that, at age 65, he might be on the cusp of retiring as CEO, there’s something going on where a narrative is being spread that Cook is in poor health. Mark Gurman included two paragraphs about a tremor in Cook’s hands in his colossal fuck-up at Bloomberg a month ago, falsely reporting that Johnny Srouji was unhappy and on the cusp of leaving Apple for a competitor.

    Despite his low profile, Mr. Ternus appears to have shot to the front of the pack to be Apple’s next C.E.O., according to four people close to the company.

    The Times report describes Ternus as “low-profile” three times. This makes no sense. Ternus is one of Apple’s highest-profile executives. I would guess that over the last five years he’s appeared in more keynotes, for more time, than anyone but Cook and Craig Federighi.

    But Mr. Cook is also preparing several other internal candidates to be his potential successor, two of the people said. They could include Craig Federighi, Apple’s head of software; Eddy Cue, its head of services; Greg Joswiak, its head of worldwide marketing; and Deirdre O’Brien, its head of retail and human resources.

    I don’t think there’s any chance that Cook’s successor will be someone who isn’t a frequent presence in Apple keynotes. I can’t recall O’Brien ever appearing in a keynote, and Cue hasn’t appeared in one for several years. Also, Cue is 61 and Joz is 62. Neither is that much younger than Cook.

    Two interesting tidbits re: Ternus:

    Within about three years, he became a manager, said Steve Siefert, Mr. Ternus’s first boss at Apple. During that time, their team moved office floors, switching from a closed office plan to mostly open seating with a few offices. When he was promoted, Mr. Ternus had the option to move into one of those offices but declined.

    Mr. Ternus was “a man of the people,” Mr. Siefert said, adding that the decision to sit with his team likely helped Mr. Ternus manage and motivate his staff. When Mr. Siefert retired in 2011, freeing up his office, Mr. Ternus once again said he wanted to remain in the open space.

    And:

    “If you want to make an iPhone every year, Ternus is your guy,” said Cameron Rogers, who worked on product and software engineering management at Apple from 2005 to 2022. [...]

    “He’s a nice guy,” Mr. Rogers said. “He’s someone you want to hang out with. Everyone loves him because he’s great. Has he made any hard decisions? No. Are there hard problems he’s solved in hardware? No.”

    This guy Cameron Rogers sounds like a real asshole.

    What complaints does anyone have about Apple hardware over the last five years? Off the top of my head I can’t think of any that are serious. Ternus has overseen what I’d argue is the best sustained stretch of Apple hardware, across more product lines than ever, in the company’s 50-year history. But he didn’t make any hard decisions or solve any hard problems. Sure. Hardware is easy.

     ★ 

    Know Your Rights: Filming and Photographing the Police

    The ACLU:

    Taking photographs and video of things that are plainly visible in public spaces is a constitutional right — and that includes police and other government officials carrying out their duties.

    However, there is a widespread, continuing pattern of law enforcement officers ordering people to stop taking photographs or video in public places and harassing, detaining, and arresting those who fail to comply.

    Here’s their advice on what to say and do if you are stopped or detained for taking photographs or video.

    Also, as good a time as ever for one of my periodic reminders to remember how to hard-lock your iPhone to temporarily disable Face ID: press and hold the side button and either one of the volume buttons at the same time for a few seconds.

     ★ 

    Chase to Become New Issuer of Apple Card

    Apple Newsroom:

    Today, Apple and Chase announced that Chase will become the new issuer of Apple Card, with an expected transition in approximately 24 months.

    Apple Card users can continue to enjoy the award-winning experience of Apple Card, which includes up to 3 percent unlimited Daily Cash back on every purchase, easy-to-navigate spending tools, Apple Card Family, access to a high-yield Savings account, and more. Mastercard will remain the payment network for Apple Card, and Apple Card users can continue to access Mastercard’s global acceptance and benefits. [...]

    During this transition, Apple Card users can continue to use their card as they normally do. More information, including FAQs, is available at learn.applecard.apple/transition. Additional details will be shared with users as the transition date approaches.

    The only mention of the current issuer, Goldman Sachs, is in the small gray fine print footnotes.

     ★ 

    The Gold Trump Phone Still Hasn’t Shipped

    Maybe “next year” meant “next next year”?

    (They’re still accepting $100 deposits for pre-orders.)

     ★ 

    A Turning Point for Trump’s Marauding Secret Police

    People who don’t like Donald Trump are kinda gun-shy talking about turning points. Turning points of course can mean very many things. But as I watched first the videos of the murder of Renee Nicole Good and even more the official reactions to it I’ve started to think that we’re in the process of seeing one. I don’t mean Donald Trump is doomed politically, though perhaps he is. I mean a turning point in the public perception of ICE (and the Border Patrol) and their newly hyper-militarized role in American cities beginning last summer.

    What we see in the videos of Good’s shooting is some mix of a moment of confusion or perhaps minor panic on the part of Good as the driver. And we see this ICE agent draw his weapon in a fairly calm and methodical way and fatally shoot Good in the face.

    Videos of police shootings that rocket around the web are by definition always really bad. That’s why they get shared so widely. But in this case, if you’ve even somewhat kept up on the progress of “mass deportation” since the summer, you can’t watch this video and not recognize that this is a common pattern across ICE and CBP — these rapid escalations to lethal force with a calm and regular energy. It’s of a piece with the gaiters and gear ICE agents adapt to appear particularly menacing and remain unidentifiable. Yesterday I saw a social scientist at Harvard commenting on a photograph of CBP commander Greg Bovino and a couple other agents, accusing them of cosplaying. What do they think, this person asked, that they’re like in Fallujah in 2007? This is a high school in Minneapolis. And yeah, they’re decked out with all the accoutrements of urban warfare. ICE and CBP have grown into predatory organizations in which an ethic of explosive and malicious violence against civilians, coupled with casual lying, is not only tolerated but aggressively encouraged. That’s how you get to this agent casually shooting a woman in the face because she may have momentarily angled her wheels in the wrong direction during a tense moment.

    But it’s what we saw afterwards and especially today that took things to a new level — top Trump officials including the Vice President and Secretary of Homeland Security saying that what we see in these videos is in fact exactly what we want to see happen: a federal law enforcement officer, in danger of being killed, reacting with deadly force to someone “weaponizing” their vehicle. I don’t think that this kind of predatory up-is-downism is sustainable for a majority of the American people. We know that Donald Trump sees America’s blue cities as a kind of conquered territory. We’re now seeing what that actually means in practice, when the potential violence which has always been coiled up in federal law enforcement is released on American citizens because of the predatory license granted by Trump’s example and his acolytes. The message is pretty simple. Your cities are a war zone, and any false move, any transient moment of non-compliance or any fidgety moment of misunderstanding can mean your death. Top Trump officials are saying emphatically that this is exactly how it should be and I don’t think that will stand.

    ICE should absolutely be abolished. The country needs an immigration enforcement agency. But not this one. ICE was created at the beginning of the counter-terrorism era, has always been notorious for brutal and undisciplined behavior which is incompatible with democratic self-government and the rights of American citizens. Get rid of ICE (and possibly CBP as well) and replace it with an organization structured around lawful and apolitical enforcement of the country’s immigration laws.

    The U.S. has a long tradition of intolerance of unleashing military and paramilitary forces on American civilians. You find it right there in the central role of the Boston Massacre in driving the final crisis of the American Revolution. You see it in the 3rd Amendment and numerous laws which are supposed to keep the U.S. military from being used in domestic law enforcement except under the most extreme circumstances, and now don’t seem to apply anymore.

    ICE and CPB aren’t the military of course. But this is too literal a way of looking at the matter. They are being sent into American cities as forces of occupation and they are acting like that. They are very consciously decked out in the costumery of urban warfare and military occupation. We don’t have to stand for this. It’s outside of our traditions. It’s malevolent and predatory. It’s time to say enough. And this may be the turning point.

    That’s the Whole Ballgame, Folks

    I remember not so many months ago wondering if I was pushing the envelope a bit by writing that the Justice Department was being run out of the Trump White House. Since those quaint times, evidence has continued to amass that that is exactly how things are being run, but both the White House and Justice Department preferred to maintain the fiction that they were separate entities. Until today.

    Here’s what Vice President JD Vance announced midday in a White House press appearance (emphasis mine):

    Vance said the new assistant attorney general will help coordinate an administration-wide effort to investigate potential fraudulent activity in federally-backed programs and bring charges. The assistant attorney general will not work out of the Justice Department, the vice president said. Instead, the position will be run out of the White House and overseen by President Trump and Vance, he said.

    The traditional Chinese wall between the White House and Justice Department looks as intact as the East Wing.

    Listen To This: Happy New War

    Kate and Josh discuss Venezuela and Tim Walz dropping his reelection bid.

    You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

    Friday assorted links

    1. The New Aesthetics and a call for new stories.

    2. Seb Krier.

    3. How did TVs get so cheap?

    4. How Dean Ball uses coding agents.

    5. The golden age of vaccine development.

    6. Why is British politics so chaotic?

    7. Update on the political science paper written by Claude.

    8. “EU countries have approved the Mercosur trade deal after 25 years of talks.”  And winners and losers.  There are still plenty of restrictions in the deal of course, but better than nothing.

    9. Milei fully repays currency swap.

    The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

           

    Comments

     

    Part of the new job market report

    The US continues to lose manufacturing jobs—payrolls are down 75k over the last year, & another 8k jobs were lost in December Transportation (especially auto manufacturing), wood, and electronics/electrical manufacturing are the biggest losers, but few subsectors are doing well

    Here is the link.

    The post Part of the new job market report appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

           

    Comments

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    Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

    Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

    A brief excerpt:
    Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data for September and October today, but we are still missing November data.
    ...
    The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

    Starts 2024 vs 2025Total starts were down 7.8% in October compared to October 2024.

    Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 0.7% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 7.0% YTD and multi-family up 18.0% YTD.
    There is much more in the article.

    Dems Not Shouting Down Trump’s New “Era” of Foreign Policy

    No Clear, Vehement Message to the World That They Will Reverse Trump’s Course

    I keep seeing stories in leading news services about how Trump has started a new era in international relations and the old era is dead. Really? Is this a new “era” and the old standards are gone? Or is this just a blip we’ll have to correct?

    Of course that’s a question that depends on future leadership. Who will voters choose to control Congress or the White House next time, or will there be another attempt, possibly successful, to overthrow an election? But wouldn’t you think Democrats would want to have a clear, united message that if they regain one or both chambers of Congress they’ll do all within that power to reverse the international damage Trump has done?

    Likewise if they win the next presidency? Wouldn’t you think the Democratic party and leaders would have formed themselves into a bullhorn pointed at Europe shouting, “Hang in there! We don’t really want to weaken NATO, or take over Greenland, or let Putin take what he wants of Ukraine, or attack any more of our Latin American neighbors. This is just a temporary insanity. Give us a chance to get past this crazy person and we’ll get all of this back to normal”?

    I’m sure if you asked individual notable elected Democrats or leaders of the party organization they would agree with the idea. In fact it’s not hard to find scattered statements to that effect. So where is the clear, united, powerful message to the world? Why haven’t they used their own bully pulpit (always smaller than a president’s but still) and made effective use of news and media to make it an undoubted, “everyone knows it” understanding. And not just an assumed understanding but a clearly spelled out objective?

    In the “everyone knows” category everyone knows what Democrats generally, and Democratic leaders, think of the crazy moves Trump has made, and the ones he is likely to make. But without some unified way to make that message overt it feels shaky. It doesn’t inspire confidence that it’s an objective that will be accomplished. That may be why news media report a “new era” as a done and apparently permanent change rather than a temporary aberration.

    No big political party is perfectly unified but there are certain general themes almost all the members can lean into. The actual national organizations of the party are about helping candidates get elected, not about setting or stating policy. When it’s not presidential election season there is no single primary voice of the party. Still, the leaders and elected officials could find a way to be unified enough and to send a coordinated message to the world that if back in power they will undo the craziness of international relations. The lack of such a coordinated message becomes its own message, prompting that lack of confidence that they are up to, and focused on, achieving that change.

    If Democrats want to succeed at changing these policies, one step toward that is simple and clear. Find a way to have a unified voice, and say so.


    “FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

    The post Dems Not Shouting Down Trump’s New “Era” of Foreign Policy appeared first on DCReport.org.

    Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

    From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
    Housing Starts:
    Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 347,000.

    Building Permits:
    Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and is 1.1 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,428,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 876,000; this is 0.5 percent below the revised September figure of 880,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481,000 in October.
    emphasis added
    Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

    The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

    Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in October.   Multi-family starts were down 7.9% year-over-year.

    Single-family starts (red) increased in October and were down 7.8% year-over-year.

    Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsThe second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

    Total housing starts in October were well below expectations.   We are still missing data for November due to the government shutdown.

    I'll have more later …

    Comments on December Employment Report

    The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%.


    Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

    Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

    The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in December at 83.8%% from 83.8% in November.

    The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.

    Both are down slightly from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.

    Average Hourly Wages

    WagesThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

    There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

    Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in December, up from 3.6% YoY in November. 

    Part Time for Economic Reasons

    Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:
    "The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 5.3 million, changed little in December but is up by 980,000 over the year. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."
    The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 5.34 million from 5.49 million in November.  This is well above the pre-pandemic levels and near the highest levels since mid-2021.

    These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 8.4% from 8.7% in November. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is well above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

    Unemployed over 26 Weeks

    Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

    According to the BLS, there are 1.95 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.91 million in November.

    This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

    This is above pre-pandemic levels.

    Summary:

    The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000.  The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%.

    This was another weak employment report.  

    Links 1/8/26

    Links for you. Science:

    Flu Cases Climb to Highest Levels in New York State in Two Decades
    Doctors Catch Cancer-Diagnosing AI Extracting Patients’ Race Data and Being Racist With It
    US plan for $1.6m hepatitis B vaccine study in Africa called ‘highly unethical’
    What Trump’s inexplicable plan to mine the Mariana Trench could mean for the Pacific
    Ditch the antibacterial soap this cold and flu season
    ‘It’s an open invasion’: how millions of quagga mussels changed Lake Geneva for ever
    Two ancient humans, including famed ‘Iceman,’ had cancer-causing virus (waiting for Plaguelord and HHS Secretary Kennedy to claim this means HPV is ‘natural’ and we shouldn’t vaccinate against it)

    Other:

    Videos Contradict Trump Administration Account of ICE Shooting in Minneapolis
    Liars
    Forever renters: For many in Greater Boston, the American dream of homeownership ‘no longer exists’
    That Could Be Me
    THE DAMAGE DONE
    So long, American exceptionalism: For the first time, investors are talking about ‘US risk’
    DHS rages after being called out for arresting ‘indisputable’ U.S. citizen
    How the Internet Left 4chan Behind
    ICE Agents Violently Detain Pastor on Christmas Eve
    Republican Lawmaker Brags About Beating Up Santa in Weird Photos
    The Gloves Are Off in the Fight for Your Right to Repair
    Trump Pretends To Block State AI Laws; Media Pretends That’s Legal
    John Roberts and the Cynical Cult of Federalist No. 70
    America’s other populist, socialist big-city mayor (the bit about power and Abundance is very good)
    DeSantis admin diverted child welfare and medical funds for consultants, ads
    The war on disinformation is a losing battle
    Can we compare Donald Trump’s health chief to Soviet science boss Trofim Lysenko?
    Rise of anti-science rhetoric has fundamentally changed the relationship between doctors and patients
    Trump promised to lower prices — it hasn’t worked out that way
    Musk prepares to buy another election and smear more trans kids. This time there are no excuses for falling into his trap.
    Trump administration investigates Brown’s security after shooting
    Trump Admin Is Preparing to Revoke Visas of Critics of Elon Musk’s Twitter
    ‘Innovative’ approach to sea level rise is first of its kind in San Francisco Bay
    That OU Essay Is Supposed to Be Bad (short video)
    How Free DC became the face of the capital’s anti-Trump resistance
    Democratic Centrists Want to Fight—and Prove They Will Take on the Establishment
    The U.S. sank the alleged narco-terrorists’ boat — and let them go
    Fear Of Retaliation Grips State Department Lawyers Meant To Advise On International Law
    Bankruptcies soar as companies grapple with inflation, tariffs
    Bostonians love to hate the T. By American standards, how does it compare?
    Leaked documents show Instagram’s plan to win back teens
    Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Worked — They Liberated Americans From Their Jobs
    States sue HHS over move to dramatically limit gender transition care
    Cypriot fishermen battle invasive lionfish and turn them into a tavern delicacy
    Perry Bamonte, Guitarist And Keyboardist For The Cure, Dies At 65
    Funny Times

    2026 will clarify Europe’s new priorities for space

    Nyx

    Launchers Isar Aerospace is expected to attempt its second two-stage Spectrum vehicle test flight, a key step after its first, partially successful liftoff in 2025. In parallel, Spain’s PLD Space and its Miura-5 remain the second contender — after Isar — for the European Launcher Challenge, a competition that increasingly looks like Europe’s closest analogue […]

    The post 2026 will clarify Europe’s new priorities for space appeared first on SpaceNews.

    The moon, AI and the high-stakes decisions shaping space’s future

    Jason Kim Icon Awards chat

    In this special episode of Space Minds, our show is split into two segments from the recent SpaceNews annual Icon Awards.

    The post The moon, AI and the high-stakes decisions shaping space’s future appeared first on SpaceNews.

    Vulcan to open 2026 with national security launch

    The launch of USSF-87 comes amid leadership change at United Launch Alliance and pressure to increase launch tempo

    The post Vulcan to open 2026 with national security launch appeared first on SpaceNews.

    Rhea Space Activity applies optical navigation to military rendezvous missions

    ‘Vanguard’ project builds on NASA-developed AutoNav under a $1.9 million SpaceWERX contract

    The post Rhea Space Activity applies optical navigation to military rendezvous missions appeared first on SpaceNews.

    Medical issue prompts early return of Crew-11 from ISS

    Isaacman

    NASA has decided to bring home early four members of the International Space Station crew because of a medical issue with one of them, a first for NASA.

    The post Medical issue prompts early return of Crew-11 from ISS appeared first on SpaceNews.

    APPLICATIONS OPEN FOR COHORT 4 OF SDA TAP LAB – CATALYST CAMPUS MINI ACCELERATOR

    Catalyst Campus logo square

    Catalyst Campus is proud to announce they are now accepting applications for Cohort 4 of the SDA TAP Lab – Catalyst Campus Mini Accelerator, a high-impact accelerator program designed to […]

    The post APPLICATIONS OPEN FOR COHORT 4 OF SDA TAP LAB – CATALYST CAMPUS MINI ACCELERATOR appeared first on SpaceNews.

    Roman Space Telescope on track for September launch

    Roman

    NASA expects to launch the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope as soon as September, seeing it as evidence the agency can do flagships on cost and schedule.

    The post Roman Space Telescope on track for September launch appeared first on SpaceNews.

    Private group unveils plans for large space telescope

    Lazuli

    A billionaire-backed philanthropic organization is funding the development of a series of new observatories, including a space telescope larger than Hubble.

    The post Private group unveils plans for large space telescope appeared first on SpaceNews.

    The Space Force will acquire and integrate systems faster in 2026

    At the beginning of 2026, it’s worth reflecting on the U.S. Space Force’s recent accomplishments. They include the creation of the Commercial Space Office and its Commercial Augmentation Space Reserve, a working capital fund to provide flexibility in providing MILSATCOM services and new acquisition approaches for Resilient GPS and Protected Tactical SATCOM. The list of […]

    The post The Space Force will acquire and integrate systems faster in 2026 appeared first on SpaceNews.

    The U.S. will seize space leadership – or China will take it

    It was a record launch year for China, and the country shows no sign of slowing down in 2026. Credit: CASC; Ourspace; Landspace

    America faces a choice in space: lead or follow. There’s no middle ground anymore. China is methodically executing a plan to dominate the moon and cislunar space. The question isn’t whether someone will control humanity’s next economic frontier — it’s whether that someone will be us or them. And if we want it to be […]

    The post The U.S. will seize space leadership – or China will take it appeared first on SpaceNews.

    WHO Says Countries Should Be Self-Sufficient In (Unremunerated) Organs And Blood by Krawiec and Roth (now open source)

    The published version of our paper is now widely available:

    Kimberly D. Krawiec and Alvin E. Roth, “WHO Says Countries Should Be Self-Sufficient In (Unremunerated) Organs And Blood,” in James Stacey Taylor and Mark J. Cherry, eds., Markets in Human Organs for Transplantation: Controversy and Contention., Routledge, November 2025 (open source) https://www.taylorfrancis.com/reader/download/5885e1ba-c9af-4547-941c-821a2afaa7ee/chapter/pdf?context=ubx  

    From the introduction:

    [The nonremuneration principle] is only half of a WHO policy, broadly accepted around the world, that mandates both national (or sometimes only regional) self-sufficiency and an absence of remuneration for both blood products and transplantable organs (hereafter, the “twin principles”) (WHO 2009, 2023). This self-
    sufficiency mandate, though less examined than the ban on  remuneration, presents a real hurdle to progress in transplantation, especially for smaller and low and middle income (LMIC) countries. 

    "WHO’s insistence on self-sufficiency inhibits cooperative kidney
    exchange efforts (as well as other innovations) among countries that
    would benefit all concerned, especially the LMIC that the policy is purportedly designed to help. As will be discussed, the policy’s effect on blood products, especially when combined with the no remuneration rule, is even more stark – no country that fails to compensate donors is self-sufficient in plasma collection and few LMIC collect sufficient supplies of whole blood.
     

    "This chapter critiques these twin principles, making several central points. In Section 2.2, we discuss the twin principles as applied to blood products, noting the particularly pernicious effects on plasma supply and availability, especially in poorer nations. In Section 2.3, we turn to transplantation, emphasizing the numerous benefits of international cooperation and cross-border transplantation – benefits that would be undermined by self-sufficiency, especially in smaller countries and those without well-developed domestic exchange programs. We illustrate this point with examples drawn from several noteworthy instances of cross-border kidney exchange.
     

    "In Section 2.4, we argue that the current discourse around remuneration and organ donation is frequently overdramatic and unhelpful. Although nearly every effort to increase organ donation and transplantation presents ethical challenges, not every such effort amounts to “trafficking” or “a crime against humanity.” These labels stifle helpful deliberation, progress, and consensus. Section 2.5 concludes with recommendations for a saner approach to the scarce resources of blood products and transplantable organs – one that is focused on international cooperation, rather than self-sufficiency; evidence-based policies, rather than a reliance on decades-old
    assumptions and understandings; and the use of pilot studies and trials to test the ethics, safety, and efficacy of incentives in various settings."

    ######

    Here's the book:


     

    December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate

    From the BLS: Employment Situation
    Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs.
    ...
    The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and the change for November was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 76,000 lower than previously reported.
    emphasis added
    Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image.

    The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

    Total payrolls increased by 50 thousand in December.  Private payrolls increased by37 thousand, and public payrolls increased 13 thousand.

    Payrolls for October and November were revised down by 76 thousand, combined.  The economy has only added 93 thousand jobs since April (8 months).

    Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

    In December, the year-over-year change was 0.594 million jobs.  

    Year-over-year employment growth has slowed sharply.



    The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

    Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.4% in December, from 62.5% in November. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

    The Employment-Population ratio increased to 59.7% from 59.6% in November (blue line).

    I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.



    unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

    The unemployment rate was decreased to 4.4% in December from 4.5% in November.  

    This was slightly below consensus expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 76,000 combined.

    Overall another weak report.

    I'll have more later ...

    America must embrace the Electric Age, or fall behind

    Photo by Oronbb via Wikimedia Commons

    Elon Musk is America’s China.

    That sounds like a silly thing to say, but what it means is that what the entire economy of China is set up to do — scale up high-tech manufacturing businesses — is something that only one man in America knows how to do. Only Elon has built China-like manufacturing businesses in America, and he has done it twice now — SpaceX and Tesla. When something like that happens twice, it wasn’t a coincidence.

    Just to give you an example of how important this is, note that without SpaceX, China would be leaving America in the dust when it comes to space launches. But with SpaceX, it’s America leaving China in the dust:

    One implication of this is that America needs to make it a lot easier to set up and scale a manufacturing business, so that our entire high-tech manufacturing sector isn’t dependent on one slightly kooky right-wing billionaire. But that’s a topic for another post.

    A second implication is that if we want to know about the future of physical technology, we should listen to Elon Musk. In fact, Elon has a great track record of seeing and entering manufacturing industries that China zeroes in on later:

    This is a good list, but it omits the most important items. The three industries that Elon zeroed in on very early, which made him much of his fortune — and which China has subsequently gone all-in on — are batteries, electric vehicles, and solar power. In fact, he still thinks these technologies are some of the most important in the world. In a recent interview, Elon said:

    It seems like China listens to everything I say, and does it basically— or they’re just doing it independently. I don’t know, but they certainly have a massive battery pack output, they’re making a vast number of electric cars, and [a] vast amount of solar…
    These are all the things I said we should do here [in America].

    Elon didn’t go for batteries, EVs, and solar power because he was a climate-obsessed liberal; he correctly understood that there was a revolution underway in the technologies that humans use to produce, store, transport, and harness energy. He knew that whoever mastered that technological revolution would attain a dominant position in a bunch of different, seemingly unrelated industries.

    In other words, Elon understood — and still understands — the importance of the Electric Tech Stack.

    I’ve written a lot about electric technology, and why it’s the key to the future of every nation and every industry on Earth. In a post back in 2024, I argued that what we’re seeing is a wholesale shift away from combustion, toward technologies that harness electricity directly:

    For a more in-depth explanation, I strongly recommend this very long post by Packy McCormick and Sam D’Amico:

    Not Boring by Packy McCormick
    The Electric Slide
    Welcome to the 1,269 newly Not Boring people who have joined us since our last essay! Join 248,515 smart, curious folks by subscribing here…
    Read more

    Basically, electricity is more controllable than combustion; pushing electrons through a wire simply offers you much finer control over where the energy goes than blowing up hot gases to turn some gears. For a long time, electric technology was limited by low energy density, low power density,1 and weak magnetic field strengths — combustion gave us the oomph that electricity just couldn’t give us.

    But then in the late 20th century, we2 invented three things that utterly changed the game. These three inventions were the lithium-ion battery, the rare-earth electric motor, and power electronics. A little over a year ago, I wrote a post about why these three inventions were such game-changers:

    Basically, these three things allow electric motors to replace combustion engines (and steam boilers) over a wide variety of applications. Batteries make it possible to store and transport electrical energy very compactly and extract that energy very quickly. Rare-earth motors make it possible to use electrical energy to create very strong torques — for example, the torque that turns the axles of a Tesla. And power electronics make it possible to exert fine control over large amounts of electric power — stopping and starting it, rerouting it, repurposing it for different uses, and so on.

    With these three technologies, combustion’s main advantages vanish in many domains. Whether it’s cars, drones, robots, or household appliances, electric technology now has both the power and the portability that only combustion technology used to enjoy.

    Elon Musk understood this decades before people like me ever did, which is why he entered the electric car business very early. And over time, Elon’s vision for the car industry has increasingly been proven correct. Sales of internal combustion cars peaked almost a decade ago and have been declining ever since, while sales of electric cars have only grown:

    Source: Canary Media

    This shift isn’t just being driven by Europe subsidizing EVs at the urging of climate activists, nor by China incentivizing its citizens to buy its companies’ cars. Much of the world, from Asia to Latin America, is beginning to make the switch:

    Source: Ember Energy

    As of 2025, more than a quarter of total global car sales were EVs.

    This shift is likely to accelerate rather than slow down. As I wrote back in 2024, now that the basic problems of energy density, power density, and torque have been solved, EVs are simply a superior technology:

    They have many fewer moving parts, meaning they’re a lot easier and cheaper to maintain. They’re a lot more energy-efficient. You can charge them at night at your house, meaning you rarely have to go to a charging station. They’re quieter, and they have faster acceleration. There are a number of popular arguments against EVs, and all of those arguments are wrong — EVs now have very long range, EV batteries last for many years, charging stations can charge your car very quickly, there are plenty of minerals to give everyone in the world an EV, batteries are easy to recycle, and so on.

    EVs are going to win, and there will be a tipping point — different in each country — where the whole market just flips from combustion to electric. One reason that tipping point comes very fast is that gas stations have a network effect — when enough consumers switch to EVs, there aren’t enough gasoline-powered cars on the road to make gas stations profitable, so they start closing down, which makes EVs even more attractive.

    Elon Musk understood all this long ago, and it made him the world’s richest man. China caught on a little bit later, and now dominates global auto exports as a result. Europe is starting to understand it as well.

    But apart from Elon, the rest of America doesn’t yet understand it. The Trump administration has canceled subsidies for electric vehicles, and most of the U.S. auto industry (except for Tesla) is shifting away from EVs:

    U.S. automakers are shifting production from electric vehicles to gas-powered vehicles and are reducing spending, laying off workers, and repurposing EV battery plants to energy storage plants due to reduced consumer interest in electric vehicles and fewer government incentives…The Trump administration rolled back financial incentives for consumers to buy electric vehicles…and is modifying automobile efficiency standards…to eliminate the requirement for EV purchases…

    Ford is writing down $19.5 billion, with additional EV losses of $13 billion since 2023. The EV transition has cost the company $32.5 billion. Ford plans to switch production at a new factory in Tennessee to gas-powered pickup truck models from electric models, cancel an electric commercial van model, remake the F-150 Lightning vehicle into a hybrid from a pure electric vehicle, and convert its Kentucky EV-battery factory into a battery-storage business for utilities, wind- and solar-power developers, and AI data centers.

    The main reason America is missing the EV transition is that we’ve insisted on thinking of EVs in terms of climate — as a “green” technology whose purpose is to save the environment, rather than a superior technology whose purpose is to save you time and money. Trump canceled EV subsidies because he associates them with the environmental movement and the political left.

    American consumers are avoiding EVs because of this, and also because of a lack of charging stations. The Biden administration promised to build a vast network of EV charging stations, but managed to build almost zero, largely because the initiative was larded up with unrelated contracting requirements. So many Americans still think they won’t be able to charge their EV on a long trip, and are sticking with gas cars as a result.

    The ramifications of this failure will go far beyond the auto market. The reason is that the components that go into making EVs — the batteries, the motor, and the electronics — are increasingly the same components that go into making a vast array of other high-tech products. I have a video interview with Sam D’Amico where he explains this, and Sam’s long post with Packy McCormick also explains it in detail. But for a shorter explanation, let me recommend this recent post by Ryan McEntush of a16z:

    a16z
    Everything is Computer
    Steve Jobs famously sold the iPhone as three inventions in one. In truth, it represented something much more foundational: the first mass-market machine that bundled compute, power, sensing, connectivity, and software into a single, tightly-engineered package…
    Read more

    Ryan explains that when the components that go into electronics are the same as the components that go into cars, drones, robots and tons of other stuff. This allows Chinese manufacturers like BYD and Xiaomi to leverage truly awesome economies of scale:

    Once [the iPhone] existed, everything else started to look the same. Your laptop, smart TV, thermostat, doorbell camera, refrigerator, industrial robot, drone: all of them follow the same basic recipe. Even an electric vehicle, once you peel back the sheet metal, relies on the same ingredients — batteries, sensors, motors, compute, and software, just in a different skin. We no longer live among truly distinct technological paradigms, but within a world of variations on one single idea: the smartphone, endlessly turned inside and out and scaled across every domain. Everything is a smartphone…

    Consumer electronics is about scale…Unlike legacy internal-combustion vehicles, electric vehicles draw heavily on components and device primitives shared across many other industries…Much of today’s most important technology rests, almost inadvertently, on the foundations built by [the consumer electronics] ecosystem…An electric vehicle is a smartphone with wheels. A drone is a smartphone with propellers. A robot is a smartphone that moves…

    BYD, the global leader in batteries, builds cars, buses, ships, and trains. DJI makes drones, but also cameras, radios, and robotics hardware. Even Dreame, a Chinese vacuum company, just debuted an electric supercar. These firms are not “diversifying” in the traditional sense. Rather, they are…repeatedly assembling the same electro-industrial stack — batteries, power electronics, motors, compute, and sensors — into new permutations.

    This means that China’s Everything Makers can make not just cars and electronics more cheaply than America can, but almost everything else as well — because almost everything is being eaten by the Electric Tech Stack. Even the software industry is being eaten by the Electric Tech Stack — AI is eating software, and AI requires huge amounts of electric power and battery stabilization in order to run its data centers.

    Currently, China generates much more electricity than the U.S. does — partly because it’s willing to build out solar power, where in the U.S. solar is often blocked by local NIMBYs, “environmental” permitting laws, and a hostile Trump administration. But China also builds most of the world’s batteries, meaning that American AI is going to be dependent on Chinese batteries as well.

    On top of all that, America desperately needs the Electric Tech Stack for its national defense. I pointed this out in a post back in September, and Ryan talks about it a lot as well. Drones are taking over the modern battlefield, and drones require batteries and rare-earth electric motors — the same components that go into the EVs that America is now refusing to build.

    Thus, America’s weakness in EVs, batteries, and rare earths threatens to become a weakness in everything — a weakness in AI, a weakness in drones, a weakness in robots, and so on. Because we collectively decided that EVs are hippie-dippy climate bullshit, we ignored the key physical technologies that increasingly underlie all of manufacturing, including defense manufacturing.

    Throughout America’s history, we have been at or near the forefront of every single major technological revolution. We were leaders in railroads, mechanized agriculture, industrial chemistry, electricity, mass production, internal combustion/automobiles, aviation, plastics/polymers, nuclear, space, telecommunications/TV, genetics, semiconductors, computing, the internet, mobile, and AI. This technological leadership enabled us to remain the world’s leading nation for over a century.

    But now we are missing the big one. We are missing the Electric Tech Stack. We treated it as a climate issue instead of an issue of raw national power and industrial might, and we allowed it to become a political football. As a result, China is mastering this crucial technological revolution, and America is forfeiting it. Our entire existence as a leading nation is under threat from this remarkable failure of vision and leadership.

    We should have listened to Elon Musk about the importance of the Electric Tech Stack. We should still listen to him now.


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    1

    Energy density means the ability to carry lots of energy around in a small package. Power density means the ability to get a lot of energy out of that small package very quickly.

    2

    “We” in this case means mostly the U.S. and Japan.

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    America is Now A Rogue State

    Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok

    The Cross Section is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

    Until recently, Donald Trump’s foreign policy was haphazard, irrational, and occasionally destructive. But a new and dangerous situation has emerged. Put simply, America is now a rogue state.

    It’s a term that in the past has been used to describe authoritarian regimes that threatened other countries, supported terrorism, waged reckless wars, and acted outside established international norms and systems. At various times, it has been applied to countries such as North Korea, Iran, or Iraq. Some even called the United States a rogue state in the past, though we could argue about whether that was true. But today, while there are leaders subjecting their neighbors to terrible violence — Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu come to mind — only Donald Trump is working so hard to break down the international order and replace it with chaos.

    One can make an analogy with Trump’s philosophy of public relations: He believes that the more conflict and havoc there is in the political information environment, the more he will benefit. He’s now applying the same theory to foreign policy.

    The military action to arrest Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela was only the beginning. Whatever claims the administration has made against Maduro in court or Maduro’s own record of abuses, there is no international law that allows one country to barrel into another and kidnap its leader. That came after a campaign of bombings of boats that amounted to nothing more than a series of murders; even if the boats were carrying drugs, a claim for which the administration never provided any evidence, that doesn’t mean the smugglers can be executed without any kind of due process.

    Then the administration began seizing oil tankers on the high seas, an act of simple piracy. Now Trump says that in order to avoid further military action against its country, Venezuela will have to turn over 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to him. “This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me,” he wrote on Truth Social; Secretary of Energy Chris Wright explained later that proceeds from Venezuelan oil sales will be “deposited into accounts controlled by the U.S. government.”

    It’s your basic mob shakedown: Your name is still on the awning, but we own your store now, and you have to kick back a portion of the earnings or we’ll burn the place down.

    With the adrenaline of the Venezuelan takeover pumping through their veins, Trump and his team of aspiring empire-builders have turned their attention to Greenland. The administration is now declaring that one way or another, we’ll have it for ourselves, regardless of what the people there want. Maybe we’ll grab it by force and dare anyone to stop us, or if we’re feeling generous, we might buy it from Denmark. Either way, we’re taking it and no one can stop us.

    As Trump aide Stephen Miller said in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper when asked what gives America the right to take Greenland, “We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.”

    There is not even a half-hearted attempt to assert some kind of principle or legal rationale behind it; the only justification is “Because we want to.” Meanwhile, because an idea isn’t real until it’s given a stupid yet meme-able name, Trump has declared the “Donroe Doctrine,” giving him dominion over the entire Western Hemisphere, a region that includes 20 sovereign countries other than the U.S. If he wants to take back the Panama canal or overthrow Cuba or bomb Mexico, he’ll do it, because it all belongs to him.

    The point and the effect

    Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman have termed the new order emerging in the world “neo-royalist,” which they say “centers on ruling cliques, networks of political, capital, and military elites devoted to individual sovereigns, seeking to generate durable material and status hierarchies based on the extraction of financial and cultural tributes.” They identify rulers such as Recep Erdoğan, Narendra Modi, Viktor Orbán, Mohammed bin Salman, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin as embodying at least some elements of neo-royalism. But what distinguishes Trump is his unique combination of sweeping ambition, capriciousness, and sheer stupidity. Rulers such as Orbán and bin Salman may be authoritarian and corrupt, but they don’t pose nearly the threat to the entire world that Trump does.

    Since taking office last January, Trump has tried in ways large and small to weaken any kind of rules-based order in the world. One small but telling example: Early in his presidency, Trump ordered his administration to stop enforcing the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which bars U.S. companies from paying bribes overseas. Is a world in which bribery is required to do business in the interests of the United States? Of course not, but it’s the world Trump wants to live in, especially since he himself enthusiastically and publicly accepts gigantic bribes from foreign governments.

    Neo-royalism is one way to think about the system Trump is helping to create; another is simple gangsterism, with him as the most powerful and ruthless gangster. One of the key elements of gangsterism is that anyone is vulnerable to being preyed upon, and the only way to buy some temporary security is to pay the extortion the gangster demands, even though those demands could change at a moment’s notice. Just look at Venezuela, where Trump says “We are going to run the country.” When pressed on what that means, Secretary of State Rubio explained that while we aren’t managing the country’s day-to-day affairs, we will use our military and economic blockade to force the regime to do what we want.

    And what exactly do we want? We have not effected a regime change; the Maduro government is still intact, albeit without Maduro himself. The Trump administration is making no demands with regard to human rights, democratic accountability, or fair elections. As far as it is concerned, the regime is free to punish dissent, lock up its critics, and postpone elections indefinitely. The only demand is Give us your oil. Trump came to Venezuela for one reason only: plunder.

    Every other nation, erstwhile U.S. allies included, therefore knows that he might do the same to them. Brutal dictatorships or liberal democracies, all are equally vulnerable to the gangster’s predations. To a rogue state, durable alliances are pointless; there are no friends, no nations with shared values, no long-term vision of a world of stability and harmony that can be strived for. So it is that Trump is moving ever closer to destroying NATO, arguably the most successful military alliance in history.

    And on Wednesday, the administration announced that it is pulling the U.S. out of 66 international organizations that work on everything from climate change to education to cybersecurity to democracy promotion. This administration views the very idea of international cooperation with contempt, and will do everything in its power to create a world of chaos where the only law is that Trump does what he wants and everyone else should live in fear of his wrath.

    Was it ever thus?

    One natural response to the idea that Trump has made America into a rogue state is that this is nothing new; we’ve never felt particularly constrained by international law, and in modern times no country on earth has invaded other countries and fomented coups as often as we have. Which is true. But we did take the time to present to the world a principled rationale, that our intervention was undertaken in order to protect human rights or foster democracy. It usually wasn’t true, but at least we didn’t declare that those principles were meaningless. And when we did something big like invade Iraq, we would recruit other countries to the cause and present a case to the UN. That case might have been filled with lies, but if nothing else it reinforced the idea that international legitimacy is something worthwhile to obtain.

    Yes, to those on the receiving end of American power it didn’t matter whether it was accompanied by high-minded claims about spreading freedom. But alongside our many disastrous military adventures, the United States was a force for good in the world in many ways. USAID, which Trump and Elon Musk destroyed, supplied food and medicine to millions around the globe. We provided disaster relief and gave support to dissident groups living under dictatorship. Vibrant American culture — music, film, literature — was consumed in every corner of the planet. Ambitious strivers everywhere dreamed of coming to the United States, where they could experience the kind of freedom and opportunity absent in their native lands. Republican and Democratic leaders alike understood that we gained all kinds of benefits when people in other countries admired the United States

    People in other countries may still watch American movies, but Trump has systematically tried to destroy every other part of the “soft power” that helped make us the closest thing there is to a global hegemon. We have all but shut the door to all immigration, we no longer provide any meaningful aid to the poor and suffering abroad, and we don’t even profess to support democratization or individual liberty.

    Meanwhile, Trump is trying to export the worst of his movement, especially its white supremacist ideology. In November, Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered diplomats working in allied countries to “regularly engage host governments and their respective authorities to raise U.S. concerns about violent crimes associated with people of a migration background.” Soon after, the administration released a new national security strategy that warned that Europe faced “civilizational erasure” from too many non-white immigrants, and praised emerging far-right “patriotic European parties” as a source of hope.

    No one knows for sure where this will all end up. But at this point, it would be surprising if when Trump leaves office three years from now, NATO still exists. The world will probably be a more corrupt, more chaotic, more dangerous place. As we’ve seen in Trump’s successful efforts to tear apart the federal government, it’s much easier to destroy than to build. Rebuilding a world order where something other than gangsterism prevails will take an awfully long time.

    Thank you for reading The Cross Section. This site has no paywall, so I depend on the generosity of readers to sustain the work I present here. If you find what you read valuable and would like it to continue, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

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    The Looting of US Foreign Policy

    While I was working on this, ICE murdered a woman in Minneapolis. I’m still going to put up the originally planned post, but like every decent American I’m having a hard time thinking about anything else right now.

    So Donald Trump says that Venezuela will be “turning over” 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, which may or may not be true. Trump has a track record of making big claims about commitments by foreign governments — they’ve promised $17 trillion, make that $18 trillion, OK $21 trillion in investment — that turn out to exist only in his mind. For that matter, he keeps claiming that he is in control of Venezuela — note the reference to the “Interim Authorities” — when it’s obvious by now that the abduction of Nicolas Maduro wasn’t regime change in any meaningful sense, that the same gang of thugs, minus one member, is still in charge.

    But suppose that this one-time gift of oil is real. Trump would have you believe that it’s a big deal — MILLIONS of barrels. But that amount of oil has a market value in the range of $2 billion, which is not a big number for the United States. In fact, it’s less than 0.01 percent of GDP. And in terms of US oil consumption, that’s about 2 days worth of oil.

    However, Trump says that the money from selling the oil “will be controlled by me.” And while $2 billion is a trivial sum from the perspective of national interest, it’s a fairly big number if the money is diverted into the hands of the clique that is currently running the U.S. government.

    I use the word “clique” advisedly. That’s the term used by the political scientists Stacie E. Goddard and Abraham Newman in a recent paper titled “Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System.”

    Goddard and Newman have received well-deserved attention for their analysis, which states that Americans should stop believing that U.S. foreign policy serves U.S. national interests. Instead, they argue, we must recognize that in many ways we’ve been transported back to the 16th century – a time before nation-states existed, when international affairs were a game played by dynasties serving their interests.

    Thus, the Italian Wars of the 16th century weren’t a fight between France and Spain, they were a contest for dominance between the House of Valois and the Habsburgs. Similarly, Goddard and Newman argue that Trumpist foreign policy has nothing to do with, well, making America great again, and everything to do with raising the wealth and status of the Trump family and its hangers-on — what they call our ruling clique.

    As Goddard and Newman point out, U.S. foreign policy over the past year makes no sense if interpreted through the lens of national interest. How can it serve U.S. interests to insult and demean Canada, which has been an utterly reliable ally? Why would a U.S. president talk about seizing Greenland, which belongs to another ally, Denmark, and is a place where America already has a military base and can do whatever it considers necessary to protect our national security?

    But the Trump clique doesn’t care whether nations have been staunch allies of the United States. They want subservient clients paying tribute, not to America, but to them personally. And that’s something democracies like Canada and Denmark won’t do.

    Trump has been remarkably transparent about his goals in Venezuela: It’s all about looting. That is, he wants to seize the country’s oil wealth on behalf of himself and his clique. Some people, notably María Corina Machado, leader of Venezuela’s opposition, have been surprised that Trump shows no interest in restoring democracy. But why would he? He’s unable to enrich himself personally in democracies like Canada and Denmark. But a repressive regime like Venezuela is willing to pay him protection money.

    Trump boasts about appropriating $2 billion (maybe) in current oil stocks from Venezuela. Yet how much is this whole adventure costing U.S. taxpayers?

    According to a December report in The National Interest (an ironic name given Trump’s policies) moving a carrier group to the Caribbean cost around $600 million. In addition, the ongoing operational costs are $6.5 million per day, which have been accumulating since late October/early November. Add in the cost of munitions expended during the Maduro abduction, and the whole adventure has surely cost more than a billion dollars. Moreover, the meter keeps ticking: since Chavistas are still in power, Trump has to keep forces nearby in order to intimidate them to honor agreements. But Trump doesn’t care: The military expenses are the little people’s problem.

    The bottom line is that to understand what Trump is doing around the world you must disabuse yourself of the notion that any of it is about serving America. It’s all about glorifying himself and enriching his clique.

    After yesterday’s horror, a musical coda seems inappropriate.

    LLM predictions for 2026, shared with Oxide and Friends

    I joined a recording of the Oxide and Friends podcast on Tuesday to talk about 1, 3 and 6 year predictions for the tech industry. This is my second appearance on their annual predictions episode, you can see my predictions from January 2025 here. Here's the page for this year's episode, with options to listen in all of your favorite podcast apps or directly on YouTube.

    Bryan Cantrill started the episode by declaring that he's never been so unsure about what's coming in the next year. I share that uncertainty - the significant advances in coding agents just in the last two months have left me certain that things will change significantly, but unclear as to what those changes will be.

    Here are the predictions I shared in the episode.

    1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code ▶ 19:27

    I think that there are still people out there who are convinced that LLMs cannot write good code. Those people are in for a very nasty shock in 2026. I do not think it will be possible to get to the end of even the next three months while still holding on to that idea that the code they write is all junk and it's it's likely any decent human programmer will write better code than they will.

    In 2023, saying that LLMs write garbage code was entirely correct. For most of 2024 that stayed true. In 2025 that changed, but you could be forgiven for continuing to hold out. In 2026 the quality of LLM-generated code will become impossible to deny.

    I base this on my own experience - I've spent more time exploring AI-assisted programming than most.

    The key change in 2025 (see my overview for the year) was the introduction of "reasoning models" trained specifically against code using Reinforcement Learning. The major labs spent a full year competing with each other on who could get the best code capabilities from their models, and that problem turns out to be perfectly attuned to RL since code challenges come with built-in verifiable success conditions.

    Since Claude Opus 4.5 and GPT-5.2 came out in November and December respectively the amount of code I've written by hand has dropped to a single digit percentage of my overall output. The same is true for many other expert programmers I know.

    At this point if you continue to argue that LLMs write useless code you're damaging your own credibility.

    1 year: We're finally going to solve sandboxing ▶ 20:05

    I think this year is the year we're going to solve sandboxing. I want to run code other people have written on my computing devices without it destroying my computing devices if it's malicious or has bugs. [...] It's crazy that it's 2026 and I still pip install random code and then execute it in a way that it can steal all of my data and delete all my files. [...] I don't want to run a piece of code on any of my devices that somebody else wrote outside of sandbox ever again.

    This isn't just about LLMs, but it becomes even more important now there are so many more people writing code often without knowing what they're doing. Sandboxing is also a key part of the battle against prompt injection.

    We have a lot of promising technologies in play already for this - containers and WebAssembly being the two I'm most optimistic about. There's real commercial value involved in solving this problem. The pieces are there, what's needed is UX work to reduce the friction in using them productively and securely.

    1 year: A "Challenger disaster" for coding agent security ▶ 21:21

    I think we're due a Challenger disaster with respect to coding agent security[...] I think so many people, myself included, are running these coding agents practically as root, right? We're letting them do all of this stuff. And every time I do it, my computer doesn't get wiped. I'm like, "oh, it's fine".

    I used this as an opportunity to promote my favourite recent essay about AI security, the Normalization of Deviance in AI by Johann Rehberger.

    The Normalization of Deviance describes the phenomenon where people and organizations get used to operating in an unsafe manner because nothing bad has happened to them yet, which can result in enormous problems (like the 1986 Challenger disaster) when their luck runs out.

    Every six months I predict that a headline-grabbing prompt injection attack is coming soon, and every six months it doesn't happen. This is my most recent version of that prediction!

    1 year: Kākāpō parrots will have an outstanding breeding season ▶ 50:06

    (I dropped this one to lighten the mood after a discussion of the deep sense of existential dread that many programmers are feeling right now!)

    I think that Kākāpō parrots in New Zealand are going to have an outstanding breeding season. The reason I think this is that the Rimu trees are in fruit right now. There's only 250 of them, and they only breed if the Rimu trees have a good fruiting. The Rimu trees have been terrible since 2019, but this year the Rimu trees were all blooming. There are researchers saying that all 87 females of breeding age might lay an egg. And for a species with only 250 remaining parrots that's great news.

    (I just checked Wikipedia and I was right with the parrot numbers but wrong about the last good breeding season, apparently 2022 was a good year too.)

    In a year with precious little in the form of good news I am utterly delighted to share this story. Here's more:

    I don't often use AI-generated images on this blog, but the Kākāpō image the Oxide team created for this episode is just perfect:

    A beautiful green Kākāpō surrounded by candles gazes into a crystal ball

    3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other ▶ 54:37

    We will find out if the Jevons paradox saves our careers or not. This is a big question that anyone who's a software engineer has right now: we are driving the cost of actually producing working code down to a fraction of what it used to cost. Does that mean that our careers are completely devalued and we all have to learn to live on a tenth of our incomes, or does it mean that the demand for software, for custom software goes up by a factor of 10 and now our skills are even more valuable because you can hire me and I can build you 10 times the software I used to be able to? I think by three years we will know for sure which way that one went.

    The quote says it all. There are two ways this coding agents thing could go: it could turn out software engineering skills are devalued, or it could turn out we're more valuable and effective than ever before.

    I'm crossing my fingers for the latter! So far it feels to me like it's working out that way.

    3 years: Someone will build a new browser using mainly AI-assisted coding and it won't even be a surprise ▶ 65:13

    I think somebody will have built a full web browser mostly using AI assistance, and it won't even be surprising. Rolling a new web browser is one of the most complicated software projects I can imagine[...] the cheat code is the conformance suites. If there are existing tests that it'll get so much easier.

    A common complaint today from AI coding skeptics is that LLMs are fine for toy projects but can't be used for anything large and serious.

    I think within 3 years that will be comprehensively proven incorrect, to the point that it won't even be controversial anymore.

    I picked a web browser here because so much of the work building a browser involves writing code that has to conform to an enormous and daunting selection of both formal tests and informal websites-in-the-wild.

    Coding agents are really good at tasks where you can define a concrete goal and then set them to work iterating in that direction.

    A web browser is the most ambitious project I can think of that leans into those capabilities.

    6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards ▶ 80:39

    I think the job of being paid money to type code into a computer will go the same way as punching punch cards [...] in six years time, I do not think anyone will be paid to just to do the thing where you type the code. I think software engineering will still be an enormous career. I just think the software engineers won't be spending multiple hours of their day in a text editor typing out syntax.

    The more time I spend on AI-assisted programming the less afraid I am for my job, because it turns out building software - especially at the rate it's now possible to build - still requires enormous skill, experience and depth of understanding.

    The skills are changing though! Being able to read a detailed specification and transform it into lines of code is the thing that's being automated away. What's left is everything else, and the more time I spend working with coding agents the larger that "everything else" becomes.

    Tags: predictions, sandboxing, ai, kakapo, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, oxide, bryan-cantrill, coding-agents

    How Google Got Its Groove Back and Edged Ahead of OpenAI

    How Google Got Its Groove Back and Edged Ahead of OpenAI

    I picked up a few interesting tidbits from this Wall Street Journal piece on Google's recent hard won success with Gemini.

    Here's the origin of the name "Nano Banana":

    Naina Raisinghani, known inside Google for working late into the night, needed a name for the new tool to complete the upload. It was 2:30 a.m., though, and nobody was around. So she just made one up, a mashup of two nicknames friends had given her: Nano Banana.

    The WSJ credit OpenAI's Daniel Selsam with un-retiring Sergei Brin:

    Around that time, Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who had recently retired, was at a party chatting with a researcher from OpenAI named Daniel Selsam, according to people familiar with the conversation. Why, Selsam asked him, wasn’t he working full time on AI. Hadn’t the launch of ChatGPT captured his imagination as a computer scientist?

    ChatGPT was on its way to becoming a household name in AI chatbots, while Google was still fumbling to get its product off the ground. Brin decided Selsam had a point and returned to work.

    And we get some rare concrete user numbers:

    By October, Gemini had more than 650 million monthly users, up from 450 million in July.

    The LLM usage number I see cited most often is OpenAI's 800 million weekly active users for ChatGPT. That's from October 6th at OpenAI DevDay so it's comparable to these Gemini numbers, albeit not directly since it's weekly rather than monthly actives.

    I'm also never sure what counts as a "Gemini user" - does interacting via Google Docs or Gmail count or do you need to be using a Gemini chat interface directly?

    Via Hacker News

    Tags: google, ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, gemini, nano-banana

    How Markdown took over the world

    Nearly every bit of the high-tech world, from the most cutting-edge AI systems at the biggest companies, to the casual scraps of code cobbled together by college students, is annotated and described by the same, simple plain text format. Whether you’re trying to give complex instructions to ChatGPT, or you want to be able to exchange a grocery list in Apple Notes or copy someone’s homework in Google Docs, that same format will do the trick. The wild part is, the format wasn’t created by a conglomerate of tech tycoons, it was created by a curmudgeonly guy with a kind heart who right this minute is probably rewatching a Kubrick film while cheering for an absolutely indefensible sports team.

    But it’s worth understanding how these simple little text files were born, not just because I get to brag about how generous and clever my friends are, but also because it reminds us of how the Internet really works: smart people think of good things that are crazy enough that they just might work, and then they give them away, over and over, until they slowly take over the world and make things better for everyone.

    Making Their Mark

    Though it’s now a building block of the contemporary Internet, like so many great things, Markdown just started out trying to solve a personal problem. In 2002, John Gruber made the unconventional decision to bet his online career on two completely irrational foundations: Apple, and blogs.

    It’s hard to remember now, but in 2002, Apple was just a few years past having been on death’s door. As difficult as it may be to picture in today’s world where Apple keynotes are treated like major events, back then, almost nobody was covering Apple regularly, let alone writing exclusively about the company. There was barely even an “tech news” scene online at all, and virtually no one was blogging. So John’s decision to go all-in on Apple for his pioneering blog Daring Fireball was, well, a daring one. At the time, Apple had only just launched its first iPod that worked with Windows computers, and the iPhone was still a full five years in the future. But that single-minded focus, not just on Apple, but on obsessive detail in everything he covered, eventually helped inspire much of the technology media landscape that we see today. John’s timing was also perfect — from the doldrums of that era, Apple’s stock price would rise by about 120,000% in the years after Daring Fireball started, and its cultural relevance probably increased by even more than that.

    By 2004, it wasn’t just Apple that had begun to take off: blogs and social media themselves had moved from obscurity to the very center of culture, and a new era of web technology had begun. At the beginning of that year, few people in the world even knew what a “blog” was, but by the end of 2004, blogs had become not just ubiquitous, but downright cool. As unlikely as it seems now, that year’s largely uninspiring slate of U.S. presidential candidates like Wesley Clark, Gary Hart and, yes, Howard Dean helped propel blogs into mainstream awareness during the Democratic primaries, alongside online pundits who had begun weighing in on politics and the issues and cultural moments at a pace that newspapers and TV couldn’t keep up with. A lot has been written about the transformation of media during those years, but less has been written about how the media and tech of the time transformed each other.

    A photo from 2004 of a TV screen showing CNN, with a ticker saying "Gary Hart Cyber Campaign Starts blog for possible 2004 presidential bid"

    That era of early blogging was interesting in that nearly everyone who was writing the first popular sites was also busy helping create the tools for publishing them. Just like Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz had to pioneer combining studio-style flat lighting with 35mm filming in order to define the look of the modern sitcom, or Jimi Hendrix had to work with Roger Mayer to invent the signature guitar distortion pedals that defined the sound of rock and roll, the pioneers who defined the technical format and structures of blogging were often building the very tools of creation as they went along.

    I got a front row seat to these acts of creation. At the time I was working on Movable Type, which was the most popular tool for publishing “serious” blogs, and helped popularize the medium. Two of my good friends had built the tool and quickly made it into the default choice for anybody who wanted to reach a big audience; it was kind of a combination of everything people do these days on WordPress and all the various email newsletter platforms and all of the “serious” podcasts (since podcasts wouldn’t be invented for another few months). But back in those early days, we’d watch people use our tools to set up Gawker or Huffington Post one day, and Daring Fireball or Waxy.org the next, and each of them would be the first of its kind, both in terms of its design and its voice. To this day, when I see something online that I love by Julianne Escobedo Shepherd or Ta-Nehisi Coates or Nilay Patel or Annalee Newitz or any one of dozens of other brilliant writers or creators, my first thought is often, “hey! They used to type in that app that I used to make!” Because sometimes those writers would inspire us to make a new feature in the publishing tools, and sometimes they would have hacked up a new feature all by themselves in between typing up their new blog posts.

    A really clear, and very simple, early example of how we learned that lesson was when we changed the size of the box that people used to type in just to create the posts on their sites. We made the box a little bit taller, mostly for aesthetic reasons. Within a few weeks, we’d found that posts on sites like Gawker had gotten longer, mostly because the box was bigger. This seems obvious now, years after we saw tweets get longer when Twitter expanded from 140 characters to 280 characters, but at the time this was a terrifying glimpse at how much power a couple of young product managers in a conference room in California would have over the media consumption of the entire world every time they made a seemingly-insignificant decision.

    The other dirty little secret was, typing in the box in that old blogging app could be… pretty wonky sometimes. People who wanted to do normal things like include an image or link in their blog post, or even just make some text bold, often had to learn somewhat-obscure HTML formatting, memorizing the actual language that’s used to make web pages. Not everybody knew all the details of how to make pages that way, and if they made even one small mistake, sometimes they could break the whole design of their site. It made things feel very fraught every time a writer went to publish something new online, and got in the way of the increasingly-fast pace of sharing ideas now that social media was taking over the public conversation.

    Enter John and his magical text files.

    Marking up and marking down

    The purpose of Markdown is really simple: It lets you use the regular characters on your keyboard which you already use while typing out things like emails, to make fancy formatting of text for the web. That HTML format that’s used to make web pages stands for HyperText Markup Language. The word “markup” there means you’re “marking up” your text with all kinds of special characters. Only, the special characters can be kind of arcane. Want to put in a link to everybody’s favorite website? Well, you’re going to have to type in <a href="https://anildash.com/">Anil Dash’s blog</a> I could explain why, and what it all means, but honestly, you get the point — it’s a lot! Too much. What if you could just write out the text and then the link, sort of like you might within an email? Like: [Anil Dash’s blog](https://anildash.com)! And then the right thing would happen. Seems great, right?

    The same thing works for things like putting a header on a page. For example, as I’m writing this right now, if I want to put a big headline on this page, I can just type #How Markdown Took Over the World and the right thing will happen.

    If mark_up_ is complicated, then the opposite of that complexity must be… markd_own_. This kind of solution, where it’s so smart it seems obvious in hindsight, is key to Markdown’s success. John worked to make a format that was so simple that anybody could pick it up in a few minutes, and powerful enough that it could help people express pretty much anything that they wanted to include while writing on the internet. At a technical level, it was also easy enough to implement that John could write the code himself to make it work with Movable Type, his publishing tool of choice. (Within days, people had implemented the same feature for most of the other blogging tools of the era; these days, virtually every app that you can type text into ships with Markdown support as a feature on day one.)

    Prior to launch, John had enlisted our mutual friend, the late, dearly missed Aaron Swartz, as a beta tester. In addition to being extremely fluent in every detail of the blogging technologies of the time, Aaron was, most notably, seventeen years old. And though Aaron’s activism and untimely passing have resulted in him having been turned into something of a mythological figure, one of the greatest things about Aaron was that he could be a total pain in the ass, which made him terrific at reporting bugs in your software. (One of the last email conversations I ever had with Aaron was him pointing out some obscure bugs in an open source app I was working on at the time.) No surprise, Aaron instantly understood both the potential and the power of Markdown, and was a top-tier beta tester for the technology as it was created. His astute feedback helped finely hone the final product so it was ready for the world, and when Markdown quietly debuted in March of 2004, it was clear that text files around the web were about to get a permanent upgrade.

    The most surprising part of what happened next wasn’t that everybody immediately started using it to write their blogs; that was, after all, what the tool was designed to do. It’s that everybody started using Markdown to do everything else, too.

    Hitting the Mark

    It’s almost impossible to overstate the ubiquity of Markdown within the modern computer industry in the decades since its launch.

    After being nagged about it by users for more than a decade, Google finally added support for Markdown to Google Docs, though it took them years of fiddly improvements to make it truly usable. Just last year, Microsoft added support for Markdown to its venerable Notepad app, perhaps in attempt to assuage the tempers of users who were still in disbelief that Notepad had been bloated with AI features. Nearly every powerful group messaging app, from Slack to WhatsApp to Discord, has support for Markdown in messages. And even the company that indirectly inspired all of this in the first place finally got on board: the most recent version of Apple Notes finally added support for Markdown. (It’s an especially striking launch by Apple due to its timing, shortly after John had used his platform as the most influential Apple writer in the world to blog about the utter failure of the “Apple Intelligence” AI launch.)

    But it’s not just the apps that you use on your phone or your laptop. For developers, Markdown has long been the lingua franca of the tools we string together to accomplish our work. On GitHub, the platform that nearly every developer in the world uses to share their code, nearly every single repository of code on the site has at least one Markdown file that’s used to describe its contents. Many have dozens of files describing all the different aspects of their project. And some of the repositories on GitHub consist of nothing but massive collections of Markdown files. The small tools and automations we run to perform routine tasks, the one-off reports that we generate to make sure something worked correctly, the confirmations that we have a system email out when something goes wrong, the temporary files we use when trying to recover some old data — all of these default to being Markdown files.

    As a result, there are now billions of Markdown files lying around on hard drives around the world. Billions more are stashed in the cloud. There are some on the phone in your pocket. Programmers leave them lying around wherever their code might someday be running. Your kid’s Nintendo Switch has Markdown files on it. If you’re listening to music, there’s probably a Markdown file on the memory chip of the tiny system that controls the headphones stuck in your ears. The Markdown is inside you right now!

    Down For Whatever

    So far, these were all things we could have foreseen when John first unleashed his little text tool on the world. I would have been surprised about how many people were using it, but not really the ways in which they were using it. If you’d have said “Twenty years in the future, all the different note-taking apps people use save their files using Markdown!”, I would have said, “Okay, that makes sense!”

    What I wouldn’t have asked, though, was “Is John getting paid?” As hard as it may be to believe, back in 2004, the default was that people made new standards for open technologies like Markdown, and just shared them freely for the good of the internet, and the world, and then went on about their lives. If it happened to have unleashed billions of dollars of value for others, then so much the better. If they got some credit along the way, that was great, too. But mostly you just did it to solve a problem for yourself and for other like-minded people. And also, maybe, to help make sure that some jerk didn’t otherwise create some horrible proprietary alternative that would lock everybody into their terrible inferior version forever instead. (We didn’t have the word “enshittification” yet, but we did have Cory Doctorow and we did have plain text files, so we kind of knew where things were headed.)

    To give a sense of the vibe of that era, the term “podcasting” had been coined just a month before Markdown was released, and went into wider use that fall, and was similarly a radically open system that wasn’t owned by any big company and that empowered people to do whatever they wanted to do to express themselves. (And podcasting was another technology that Aaron Swartz helped improve by being a brilliant pain in the ass. But I’ll save that story for another book-length essay.)

    That attitude of being not-quite-_anti_commercial, but perhaps just not even really concerned with whether something was commercial or not seems downright quaint in an era when the tech tycoons are not just the wealthiest people in the world, but also some of the weirdest and most obnoxious as well. But the truth is, most people today who make technology are actually still exceedingly normal, and quite generous. It’s just that they’ve been overshadowed by their bosses who are out of their minds and building rocket ships and siring hundreds of children and embracing overt white supremacy instead of making fun tools for helping you type text, like regular people do.

    The Markdown Model

    The part about not doing this stuff solely for money matters, because even the most advanced LLM systems today, what the big AI companies call their “frontier” models, require complex orchestration that’s carefully scripted by people who’ve tuned their prompts for these systems through countless rounds of trial and error. They’ve iterated and tested and watched for the results as these systems hallucinated or failed or ran amok, chewing up countless resources along the way. And sometimes, they generated genuinely astonishing outputs, things that are truly amazing to consider that modern technology can achieve. The rate of progress and evolution, even factoring in the mind-boggling amounts of investment that are going into these systems, is rivaled only by the initial development of the personal computer or the Internet, or the early space race.

    And all of it — all of it — is controlled through Markdown files. When you see the brilliant work shown off from somebody who’s bragging about what they made ChatGPT generate for them, or someone is understandably proud about the code that they got Claude to create, all of the most advanced work has been prompted in Markdown. Though where the logic of Markdown was originally a very simple version of "use human language to tell the machine what to do", the implications have gotten far more dire when they use a format designed to help expresss "make this **bold**" to tell the computer itself "make this imaginary girlfriend more compliant".

    But we already know that the Big AI companies are run by people who don't reckon with the implications of their work. They could never understand that every single project that's even moderately ambitious on these new AI platforms is being written up in files formatted according to this system created by one guy who has never asked for a dime for this work. An entire generation of AI coders has been born since Markdown was created who probably can’t even imagine that this technology even has an "inventor". It’s just always been here, like the Moon, or Rihanna.

    But it’s important for everyone to know that the Internet, and the tech industry, don’t run without the generosity and genius of regular people. It is not just billion-dollar checks and Silicon Valley boardrooms that enable creativity over years, decades, or generations — it’s often a guy with a day job who just gives a damn about doing something right, sweating the details and assuming that if he cares enough about what he makes then others will too. The majority of the technical infrastructure of the Internet was created in this way. For free, often by people in academia, or as part of their regular work, with no promise of some big payday or getting a ton of credit.

    The people who make the real Internet and the real innovations also don’t look for ways to hurt the world around them, or the people around them. Sometimes, as in the case of Aaron, the world hurts them more than anyone should ever have to bear. I know not everybody cares that much about plain text files on the Internet; I will readily admit I am a huge nerd about this stuff in a way that maybe most normal people are not. But I do think everybody cares about some part of the wonderful stuff on the Internet in this way, and I want to fight to make sure that everybody can understand that it’s not just five terrible tycoons who built this shit. Real people did. Good people. I saw them do it.

    The trillion-dollar AI industry's system for controlling their most advanced platforms is a plain text format one guy made up for his blog and then bounced off of a 17-year-old kid before sharing it with the world for free. You're welcome, Time Magazine's people of the year, The Architects of AI. Their achievement is every bit as impressive as yours.

    The Ten Technical Reasons Markdown Won

    Okay, with some of the narrative covered, what can we learn from Markdown’s success? How did this thing really take off? What could we do if we wanted to replicate something like this in the modern era? Let’s consider a few key points:

    1. Had a great brand.

    Okay, let’s be real: “Markdown” as a name is clever as hell. Get it it’s not markup, it’s mark down. You just can’t argue with that kind of logic. People who knew what the “M” in “HTML” stood for could understand the reference, and to everyone else, it was just a clearly-understandable name for a useful utility.

    2. Solved a real problem.

    This one is not obvious, but it’s really important that a new technology have a real problem that it’s trying to solve, instead of just being an abstract attempt to do something vague, like “make text files better”. Millions of people were encountering the idea that it was too difficult or inconvenient to write out full HTML by hand, and even if one had the necessary skills, it was nice to be able to do so in a format that was legible as plain text as well.

    3. Built on behaviors that already existed.

    This is one of the most quietly genius parts of Markdown: The format is based on the ways people had been adding emphasis and formatting to their text for years or even decades. Some of the formatting choices dated back to the early days of email, so they’d been ingrained in the culture of the internet for a full generation before Markdown existed. It was so familiar, people could be writing Markdown without even knowing it.

    4. Mirrored RSS in its origin.

    Around the same time that Markdown was taking off, RSS was maturing into its ubiquitous form as well. The format had existed for some years already, enabling various kinds of content syndication, but at this time, it was adding support for the technologies that would come to be known as podcasting as well. And just like RSS, Markdown was spearheaded by a smart technologist who was also more than a little stubborn about defining a format that would go on to change the way we share content on the internet. In RSS’ case, it was pioneered by Dave Winer, and with Markdown it was John Gruber, and both were tireless in extolling the virtues of the plain text formats they’d helped pioneer. They could both leverage blogs to get the word out, and to get feedback on how to build on their wins.

    5. There was a community ready to help.

    One great thing about a format like Markdown is that its success is never just the result of one person. Vitally, Markdown was part of a community that could build on it right from the start. Right from the beginning, Markdown was inspired by earlier works like Textile, a formatting system for plain text created by Dean Allen. Many of us appreciated and were inspired by Dean, who was a pioneer of blogging tools in the early days of social media, but if there’s a bigger fan of Dean Allen on the internet than John Gruber, I’ve never met them. Similarly, Aaron Swartz, the brilliant young technologist who’s known best known as an activist for digital rights and access, was at that time just a super brilliant teenager that a lot of us loved hacking with. He was the most valuable beta tester of Markdown prior to its release, helping to shape it into a durable and flexible format that’s stood the test of time.

    6. Had the right flavor for every different context.

    Because Markdown’s format was frozen in place (and had some super-technical details that people could debate about) and people wanted to add features over time, various communities that were implementing Markdown could add their own “flavors” of it as they needed. Popular ones came to be called Commonmark and Github-Flavored, led by various companies or teams that had divergent needs for the tool. While tech geeks tend to obsess over needing everything to be “correct”, in reality it often just doesn’t matter that much, and in the real world, the entire Internet is made up of content that barely follows the technical rules that it’s supposed to.

    7. Released at a time of change in behaviors and habits.

    This is a subtle point, but an important one: Markdown came along at the right time in the evolution of its medium. You can get people to change their behaviors when they’re using a new tool, or adopting a new technology. In this case, blogging (and all of social media!) were new, so saying “here’s a new way of typing a list of bullet points” wasn’t much an additional learning curve to add to the mix. If you can take advantage of catching people while they’re already in a learning mood, you can really tap into the moment when they’re most open-minded to new things.

    8. Came right on the cusp of the “build tool era”.

    This one’s a bit more technical, but also important to understand. In the first era of building for the web, people often built the web’s languages of HTML, Javascript and CSS by hand, by themselves, or stitched these formats together from subsets or templates. But in many cases, these were fairly simple compositions, made up of smaller pieces that were written in the same languages. As things matured, the roles for web developers specialized (there started to be backend developers vs. front-end, or people who focused on performance vs. those who focused on visual design), and as a result the tooling for developers matured. On the other side of this transition, developers began to use many different programming languages, frameworks and tools, and the standard step before trying to deploy a website was to have an automated build process that transformed the “raw materials” of the site into the finished product. Since Markdown is a raw material that has to be transformed into HTML, it perfectly fit this new workflow as it became the de facto standard method of creation and collaboration.

    9. Worked with “View source”

    Most of the technologies that work best on the web enable creators to “view source” just like HTML originally did when the first web browsers were created. In this philosophy, one can look at the source code that makes up a web page, and understand how it was constructed so that you can make your own. With Markdown, it only takes one glimpse of a source Markdown file for anyone to understand how they might make a similar file of their own, or to extrapolate how they might apply analogous formatting to their own documents. There’s no teaching required when people can just see it for themselves.

    10. Not encumbered in IP

    This one’s obvious if you think about it, but it can’t go unsaid: There are no legal restrictions around Markdown. You wouldn’t think that anybody would be foolish or greedy enough to try to patent something as simple as Markdown, but there are many far worse examples of patent abuse in the tech industry. Fortunately, John Gruber is not an awful person, and nobody else has (yet) been brazen enough to try to usurp the format for their own misadventures in intellectual property law. As a result, nobody’s been afraid, either to use the format, or to support creating or reading the format in their apps.

    It is time to back off from Greenland

    I do hope it falls eventually into U.S. hands, as I explain in my latest Free Press piece.  But now is not the time and furthermore that should happen voluntarily, not coercively.  Here is an excerpt:

    The better approach is to let the Greenlanders choose independence on their own. They may be ready to do so. In a survey last year, 56 percent of Greenlanders favored independence from Denmark, with just 28 percent opposed. This should not be a tremendous surprise. The Danes have not always treated Greenland well; the legacy of Denmark taking away the children of Greenlanders 75 years ago still remains—and similar issues crop up to this day.

    If and when Greenlanders do choose independence, the U.S. should, when conditions feel right, make a generous offer to Greenland. If they do not take the offer, we might try again later on, but we should not intimidate or coerce them. We should respect their right of independence throughout the process. That would increase the likelihood that the future partnership will be a cooperative and fruitful one.

    The courtship could take 20 or 30 years, but I am pretty sure that eventually Greenlanders will see the benefits of a stronger U.S. affiliation.

    I do not think that simply trying to “buy” Greenland is going to work. I am reminded of my own fieldwork, roughly 20 years ago, in a small Mexican village in the state of Guerrero. General Motors wanted to buy most of the land in and around the village, for the purpose of building a racetrack to test GM cars. It had a lot of money to offer, and at the time a family of seven in the village might have earned no more than $1,500 a year. But the negotiations never got very far. The villagers felt they were not being respected, they did not trust the terms of any deal, and they feared their ways of life would change irrevocably. The promise of better roads, schools, and doctors—in addition to whatever payments they might have negotiated—simply fell flat.

    These are very important issues, so we need to get them right.

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    NASA orders “controlled medical evacuation” from the International Space Station

    NASA officials said Thursday they have decided to bring home four of the seven crew members on the International Space Station after one of them experienced a "medical situation" earlier this week.

    The space agency has said little about the incident, and officials have not identified which crew member suffered the medical issue. James "JD" Polk, NASA's chief health and medical officer, told reporters Thursday the crew member is "absolutely stable" but that the agency is "erring on the side of caution" with the decision to bring to return the astronaut to Earth.

    The ailing astronaut is part of the Crew-11 mission, which launched to the station August 1 and was slated to come back to Earth around February 20. Instead, the Crew-11 astronauts will depart the International Space Station (ISS) in the coming days and head for reentry and a parachute-assisted splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California.

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    Ken Opalo outlook on Africa 2026

    (4) Keeping with the theme of growing during hard times and in difficult contexts, Nigeria is projected to grow by at least 4.3% in 2026, with consumer demand rising by over 7%.

    Tinubu’s strong medicine may have nearly killed the patient, but after two painful years Nigerians seem poised to get relief from improving macro conditions. The Naira will remain stable (despite downward pressure on oil prices), with inflation projected to decline to under 14% — down from over 20% in 2025. Also, by now we can conclude that Dangote Refinery’s $20b bet on the Nigerian economy is a success. He appears to be winning the war against the entrenched interests that for decades fed at the trough of crude exports, imports of refined products, and fuel subsidies. The impact of the refinery will be felt in the further stabilization of fuel prices in 2026.

    Nigeria’s reform momentum will slow down ahead of the 2027 elections. It’s not yet clear whether the reforms knocked the economy into a growth path, or if the projected growth is just recovery from the initial steep contraction after Tinubu took office.

    (5) South Africa, too, will grow in 2026 despite tariff and political pressure from Washington. The GNU is holding; and Pretoria has weathered geopolitical storms (including the rift with Trump’s America) much better than I anticipated.

    After years of stagnation, there is an emerging consensus that South Africa will see improvements in its growth rate over the next three years (averaging 1.7%). The reform momentum will continue, including in the power sector and entrenchment of the rule of law. Local elections later this year, including the big one in Johannesburg, will likely put further pressure on the ANC to improve service delivery and overall quality of policymaking.

    The whole post is of interest, interesting throughout.

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    Former Google CEO plans to singlehandedly fund a Hubble telescope replacement

    Prior to World War II the vast majority of telescopes built around the world were funded by wealthy people with an interest in the heavens above.

    However, after the war, two significant developments in the mid-20th century caused the burden of funding large astronomical instruments to largely shift to the government and academic institutions. First, as mirrors became larger and larger to see deeper into the universe, their costs grew exponentially. And then, with the advent of spaceflight, the expense of space-based telescopes expanded even further.

    But now the tide may be turning again.

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    Crew-11 to cut mission short and return to Earth due to medical issue

    Crew 11 during training before launch last August (left to right): Cosmonaut Oleg Platonov, NASA astronaut Mike Fincke, Crew 11 commander Zena Cardman and Japanese astronaut Kimiya Yui. Image: NASA

    Four space station fliers have been told to cut their mission short and return to Earth ahead of schedule because of an apparently serious medical issue affecting an unidentified crew member, NASA announced Thursday.

    “Yesterday, January 7th, a single crew member on board the station experienced a medical situation and is now stable,” NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said during a news conference.

    “After discussions with Chief Health and Medical Officer Dr. J.D. Polk and leadership across the agency, I’ve come to the decision that it’s in the best interest of our astronauts to return Crew 11 ahead of their planned departure (in late February). … We expect to provide a further update within the next 48 hours as to the expected, anticipated undock and re-entry timeline.”

    In keeping with the agency’s strict medical privacy policy, NASA officials have not identified the astronaut in question or provided any details about the nature of the medical issue.

    But the ailing astronaut is a member of NASA’s Crew 11, made up of commander Zena Cardman, veteran astronaut Mike Fincke, Japanese astronaut Kimiya Yui and Russian cosmonaut Oleg Oleg Platonov.

    They were launched to the International Space Station on Aug. 1 aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon ferry ship. They were planning to return to Earth around February 20, after their Crew 12 replacements arrive.

    The three Crew 11 fliers and NASA astronaut Chris Williams, who launched to the station aboard a Russian Soyuz spacecraft, marked Christmas in space with Santa hats (left to fight) Crew 11 astronauts Mike Fincke and commander Zena Cardman, Williams and Crew 11 astronaut Kimiya Yui. Image: NASA

    Fincke and Cardman were planning to venture outside the space station on Thursday to complete a support truss for an add-on solar array and to carry out a variety of other tasks.

    But on Wednesday, NASA announced the spacewalk had been called off due to a “medical concern” with one of the Crew 11 astronauts. The agency said the crew member was “stable,” but no other details were provided.

    Polk said Thursday that the astronaut in question was not injured or made ill by any operational aspect of living aboard the space station, adding that spacewalk preparations played no role in the incident.

    Isaacman said the planned early return of Crew 11 did not represent an “emergency,” adding the agency was simply being as cautious as possible to ensure the health and well being of the astronaut. Even so, Crew 11’s early return will mark the first time in U.S. space history that a mission has been cut short due to a medical issue.

    NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, is seen as he provides an update on the International Space Station and its crew, Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026, at the Mary W. Jackson NASA Headquarters building in Washington. Image: NASA/Joel Kowsky

    Polk agreed it was not an emergency, adding the problem was “mostly having a medical issue in the difficult area of microgravity and with the suite of hardware that we have at our disposal available to complete a diagnosis.”

    Space station crews have extensive medical equipment on board and crew members are trained to serve as medical officers.

    Physician and former astronaut Tom Marshburn told CBS News that space station crews are “equipped to deal with all the things that have happened in space over the 65 years of human spaceflight, any of those things that come up. Even to the some extreme examples, like a heart attack, something like that. We have the tools to do it.

    “We just can’t sustain somebody sick for a really long period of time, just for a few days, perhaps. But pretty much any medical event that you can imagine … could happen up there, yeah.”

    Amit Kshatriya, NASA’s associate administrator, said Crew 11 will follow normal procedures when returning to Earth where they will splash down in the Pacific Ocean off the Southern California coast. SpaceX support crews and NASA flight surgeons will be standing by aboard the company’s Crew Dragon recovery ship. The crew will be flown to shore by helicopter and then fly by jet back to the Johnson Space Center.

    “As Dr. Polk mentioned, it’s the first time we’ve done a controlled medical evacuation from the vehicle, so that is unusual,” Kshatriya said. “What’s important to us is the whole crew, and we don’t want to do anything, given the nature of the condition, that we put any other additional risk on the crew by diverging from our normal processes. So that’s why we’re doing essentially a controlled expedited return.”

    The space station is continuously staffed by a crew of seven. Three launch and return to Earth aboard Russian Soyuz spacecraft and four fly to and from the lab aboard NASA-managed SpaceX Crew Dragon ferry ships.

    Both spacecraft serve as lifeboats during a crew’s long-duration space station stay. If a Soyuz or Crew Dragon flier gets sick or is seriously injured aboard the station, that person is joined by all of his or her crewmates for the flight back to Earth.

    The Crew 11 astronauts in the seats they will occupy during the flight back to Earth (left to right): Cosmonaut Oleg Platonov, Mike Fincke, commander Zena Cardman and Japanese astronaut Kimiya Yui. Image: NASA

    Because of the ever present chance that a Soyuz or Crew Dragon might have to depart early, NASA and Roscosmos, the Russian federal space agency, agreed to fly one NASA astronaut aboard each Soyuz and one Russian cosmonaut aboard each Crew Dragon.

    The seat-swap arrangement ensures that at least one Russian and one American is always on board the station to operate equipment in their respective modules should one spacecraft depart early and take all its crew members with it.

    For that reason, after Crew 11 undocks from the station NASA will still have one astronaut aboard — Chris Williams — to operate systems in the lab’s U.S. modules. He was launched to the outpost in November aboard a Soyuz spacecraft along with two Russian crewmates.

    A one-time volunteer fight fighter and emergency medical technician with a Ph.D. in astrophysics from MIT, Williams was a board-certified medical physicist at Harvard Medical School when selected to join NASA’s astronaut corps in 2021.

    With the departure of Crew 11, Williams would be on his own managing the U.S. segment of the space station until Crew 12 arrives in February.

    Crew 12 commander Jessica Meir, a space station veteran, rookies Jack Hathaway and European Space Agency astronaut Sophie Adenot and veteran cosmonaut Andrey Fedyaev are scheduled for launch Feb. 15.

    NASA and SpaceX are looking into moving that launch up a few days amid work to ready a Space Launch System rocket for takeoff as early as Feb. 6 to send four astronauts on a looping fight around the moon.

    The high-profile Artemis 2 mission will be the first to send astronauts to the vicinity of the moon in more than 50 years. Isaacman said he did not think the early return of Crew 11 and the possibly early launch of Crew 12 would have any impact on the moon mission.

    WordPress LMS Setup Mistakes Beginners Should Avoid

    Launching an online learning platform using WordPress can be exciting. However, new users often make errors that hinder progress. Recognizing these common missteps can help anyone create a smoother learning experience for both instructors and students. Newcomers can avoid getting frustrated and wasting time by implementing best practices.

    Choosing an Unsuitable Theme

    Themes on a WordPress LMS provide the visual foundation and structure for an online course platform. Newer users sometimes overlook when choosing a theme, which can create design issues or constrained functionality. A theme designed for eLearning also guarantees seamless integration with eLearning plugins, better adoption by learners, and fewer technical issues. 

    Skipping Plugin Research

    Plugins provide necessary functionality, but not all of them are equal. A lot of new users install tons of plugins on their site without checking if they are good or needed. Excessive use of plugins can slow down a site or create conflicts. Users scrutinize plugins for best-in-class performance reporting, looking at their reputation, support options, and updates as a result. By only installing plugins that will support the basic learning functions, it prevents headaches in the future.

    Ignoring Mobile Responsiveness

    Many students access a course through mobile devices, and some webmasters neglect how their sites look on mobile devices. But using a responsive website that does not work well on smaller screens frustrates learners and lowers engagement. Verifying that each page and interactive element across the functions of devices behaves the same way and accurately represents the design is crucial. Flexible design ensures student satisfaction and course completion.

    Failing to Plan Course Structure

    Instructors and trainees also get lost without a clear roadmap. Few beginners post content, but they won’t group their lessons or set a logical way of learning. This hotchpotch method may lead to confusion among students and instructors, driving them crazy. Creating a clear path through the modules, lessons, and resources makes it easy for participants to navigate and find their way forward.

    Overlooking Site Security

    You must protect user data. New site owners sometimes ignore basic security practices, and this could endanger their platform and their learners. Going for weak passwords or ignoring the notification for updating the software can invite some trouble. Installing security plugins, enabling regular backups, and updating core components minimize vulnerability. These steps instill confidence in your users that their data is safe.

    Neglecting User Experience

    Course creators get so focused on content that they overlook the user experience. Students may leave a course if menus are not clear or pages take too long to load. For wheeling or stumbling in, regular reviews of the site speed, navigation, and accessibility will ensure all can be comfortable participants. Things that you can easily find and follow with no question will keep you interested throughout the entire course.

    Not Testing Before Launch

    Some newbies push out their courses without adequate testing. Former users will have a bad first experience with glitches, broken links, or missing files. Test it thoroughly and with the help of multiple users, so that you do not miss any mistakes. If you are launching with confidence, you want to test every single lesson and quiz, and the download link beforehand.

    Disregarding Regular Maintenance

    Establishing a learning platform is just the beginning. Some platform owners think continuous upkeep sits at the top when it comes to functional movement. Ignoring updates to plugins or expiring subscriptions could cause unexpected downtime or security issues. Regular checkups and keeping everything up to date ensure courses are accessible and functioning for all participants.

    Underestimating Support Needs

    Newbies assume users are unlikely to need assistance. But enrollment, payment, or navigation questions are not unusual. If there are no straightforward answers or help available, and if they run into a technology issue, learners are likely to get frustrated or give up, which translates into lower course completion rates. Having a reliable help channel (like a contact form or help desk) is a good way to show students you care about their success and to gain their trust.

    Conclusion

    When creating a proper learning experience on WordPress, there are a few things that you need to plan. These strategies will help instructors and learners alike to experience more enjoyable outcomes and avoid common pitfalls. The difference is prioritizing compatibility, security, usability, and continued support. Awareness of these pitfalls will help novices put together a stage for growth-winning, long-term engagement.


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    Thursday 8 January 1662/63

    Up pretty early, and sent my boy to the carrier’s with some wine for my father, for to make his feast among his Brampton friends this Christmas, and my muff to my mother, sent as from my wife. But before I sent my boy out with them, I beat him for a lie he told me, at which his sister, with whom we have of late been highly displeased, and warned her to be gone, was angry, which vexed me, to see the girl I loved so well, and my wife, should at last turn so much a fool and unthankful to us.

    So to the office, and there all the morning, and though without and a little against the advice of the officers did, to gratify him, send Thomas Hater to-day towards Portsmouth a day or two before the rest of the clerks, against the Pay next week.

    Dined at home; and there being the famous new play acted the first time to-day, which is called “The Adventures of Five Hours,” at the Duke’s house, being, they say, made or translated by Colonel Tuke, I did long to see it; and so made my wife to get her ready, though we were forced to send for a smith, to break open her trunk, her mayde Jane being gone forth with the keys, and so we went; and though early, were forced to sit almost out of sight, at the end of one of the lower forms, so full was the house. And the play, in one word, is the best, for the variety and the most excellent continuance of the plot to the very end, that ever I saw, or think ever shall, and all possible, not only to be done in the time, but in most other respects very admittable, and without one word of ribaldry; and the house, by its frequent plaudits, did show their sufficient approbation. So home; with much ado in an hour getting a coach home, and, after writing letters at my office, I went home to supper and to bed, now resolving to set up my rest as to plays till Easter, if not Whitsuntide next, excepting plays at Court.

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    Esther Kim Varet has a new campaign manager

    Kevin Sabellico has arrived.

    So, in the midst of America collapsing into a puddle of vomit, spit and Keebler Elf sweat beads, I received an e-mail from a man named Kevin Sabellico, who is Esther Kim Varet’s new campaign manager.

    He said he wanted to introduce himself and chat. And, in the moment, I turned him down. Politely.

    Just being honest: I’m pretty exhausted by Esther and her CA-40 run, which brings to mind 17 1/2 amphetamine-fueled blind ferrets riding a two-seated unicycle around a fog-cloaked roller coaster track (with all the signs written in Xhosa). Put different: The highs, the lows, the exclamations, the exasperation, the bragging, the condescension, the arrogance, the tone-deaf exuding of, You people don’t seem to realize how lucky you are to have me

    It’s just … I dunno. Unserious. And not only do I no longer really wanna deal, but I’ve started to believe Lisa Ramirez (even with less dough, even not living within CA-40 boundaries) is the preferred candidate in what we can all agree is a longshot race for Democrats. I definitely think she’d be better at the job.

    But then, bored a few hours ago, I Googled Kevin Sabellico. And while I don’t envy his task at hand, I do think Esther made a wise hire with this one. A former candidate for San Dieguito School Board, Kevin is one of those SoCal politic whiz kids (he graduated UC Santa Barbara a mere five years ago) who surely knows a million people, understands the locality of this type of election and strikes a humble, even-tempered tone.

    Bro also comes with some legit campaign experience

    So maybe this is what Esther needs. Someone politically wise who understands how to run a campaign and manage a candidate.

    And, most important, how to chill TF out.

    PS: This move, I believe, hurt Esther more than she realizes.

    Politics Chat, January 8, 2026

    January 7, 2026

    January 7, 2026

    This morning, a federal agent from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) shot and killed 37-year-old Renee Nicole Good as she was driving away from ICE agents on a residential street in Minneapolis, Minnesota. According to Minneapolis leaders, Good was a legal observer: a volunteer trained to observe police conduct in case of future legal action.

    Three videos taken at the scene show a maroon SUV perpendicular on a snowy street. A silver SUV driving up the street stops. Two officers wearing badges that say “police” and body armor get out of the vehicle and walk toward the maroon car.

    One of them says, “Get out of the f*cking car,” and the other reaches through the open driver’s side window while trying to open the door. The driver backs up the vehicle, and straightens the wheel as if making a three-point turn. Then she starts slowly to accelerate along the street.

    A third officer who has been standing on the side of the road pulls out a gun as the car is turning away. He shoots three times. The maroon car does not hit anyone as it rolls up the street, hitting another vehicle and then a utility pole. The shooter walks briskly away, apparently uninjured.

    Seen in slow motion, a video shows the wheels of the maroon vehicle were fully turned away from the shooting officer, who made no effort to jump away, clearly suggesting he did not feel as if he were in danger. His first shot went through the windshield; the next two went through the driver’s side window as the car moved past him. An onlooker shouted “What the f*ck?!”

    Video taken by another eyewitness shows ICE agents refusing to allow a self-identified physician to tend to the victim and telling him to back up. Although there is no one tending the clearly visible woman in the car, an agent says: “We have medics on scene. We have our own medics.” When another bystander screams: “Where are they? WHERE ARE THEY?!” an agent tells her, “Relax.” “How can I relax?” she shouts. “You just killed my f*cking neighbor.”

    Yesterday the Trump administration deployed federal agents and officers to Minneapolis for what they called the largest federal immigration operation ever carried out, eventually planning to deploy 2,000 agents. The administration has been attacking Minnesota’s Somali community, and Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem was present at an ICE arrest yesterday, telling a man in handcuffs, who Homeland Security later said was from Ecuador, “You will be held accountable for your crimes.”

    Rebecca Santana and Michael Balsamo of the Associated Press reported that Minnesota governor Tim Walz called the deployment “a war that’s being waged against Minnesota.” “You’re seeing that we have a ridiculous surge of apparently 2,000 people not coordinating with us, that are for a show of cameras,” he said.

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) insists that its actions are protecting American citizens from “the worst of the worst” criminal immigrants, so the shooting of a young white woman, the mother of a young child, and how that would look, made it appear eager to smear Good.

    It immediately put out a statement that looked much like what it said after officers shot 30-year-old Chicago teaching assistant Marimar Martinez in October when it claimed she had “ambushed” agents, ramming their vehicle before an agent shot her five times. Footage showed that, in fact, the agents had rammed her car, and after the shooting one had sent a text message bragging: “I fired 5 rounds and she had 7 holes. Put that in your book boys.” The Department of Justice dropped the charges it had filed against her, asking a judge to “dismiss the indictment and exonerate” Martinez and her passenger.

    Today, DHS posted on social media that “ICE officers in Minneapolis were conducting targeted operations when rioters began blocking ICE officers and one of these violent rioters weaponized her vehicle, attempting to run over our law enforcement officers in an attempt to kill them—an act of domestic terrorism. An ICE officer, fearing for his life, the lives of his fellow law enforcement and the safety of the public, fired defensive shots. He used his training and saved his own life and that of his fellow officers. The alleged perpetrator was hit and is deceased. The ICE officers who were hurt are expected to make full recoveries. This is the direct consequence of constant attacks and demonization of our officers by sanctuary politicians who fuel and encourage rampant assaults on our law enforcement who are facing 1,300% increase in assaults against them and an 8,000% increase in death threats.”

    Trump jumped in with his own fact-free post lying that the shooter had been run over: “I have just viewed the clip of the event which took place in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It is a horrible thing to watch. The woman screaming was, obviously, a professional agitator, and the woman driving the car was very disorderly, obstructing and resisting, who then violently, willfully, and viciously ran over the ICE Officer, who seems to have shot at her in self defense. Based on the attached clip, it is hard to believe that he is alive, but is now recovering in the hospital. The situation is being studied, in its entirety, but the reason these incidents are happening is because the Radical Left is threatening, assaulting, and targeting our Law Enforcement Officers and ICE Agents on a daily basis. They are just trying to do the job of MAKING AMERICA SAFE. We need to stand by and protect our Law Enforcement Officers from this Radical Left Movement of Violence and Hate! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

    That both DHS and Trump posted false accounts of the shooting even as there are four videos circulating that reveal those accounts to be lies shows they no longer are making any attempt to justify their actions. Instead, they are demanding Americans abandon reality in favor of whatever the administration says. If this works, it would be a demonstration of totalitarian power, the ability to control how people think. Accepting that lie is a loyalty test.

    But it is not working.

    First of all, Sarah Jeong of The Verge noted that the reason there are so many videos is because “people cared enough to show up where ICE was and record them. It wasn’t just one or two legal observers, and when Good was shot, they didn’t abandon her.”

    Second, elected Democrats are pushing back. “I’ve seen the video,” Governor Walz wrote. “Don’t believe this propaganda machine. The state will ensure there is a full, fair, and expeditious investigation to ensure accountability and justice.” To reporters, he said: “We’ve been warning for weeks that the Trump administration’s dangerous, sensationalized operations are a threat to our public safety, that someone was going to get hurt. Just yesterday I said exactly that. What we’re seeing is the consequences of governance designed to generate fear, headlines, and conflict. It’s governing by reality TV and today that recklessness cost someone their life. I’ve reached out to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and I’m waiting to hear back.”

    He told Minnesotans that, like them, he was angry, but “they want a show. We can’t give it to them. We cannot. If you protest and express your First Amendment rights, please do so peacefully as you always do. We can’t give them what they want…. To Americans, I ask you this. Please stand with Minneapolis.”

    Walz prepared to call out the Minnesota National Guard if necessary, demonstrating that there would be no need for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act and send in troops. He reminded Minnesotans that the Minnesota National Guard does not wear masks and that it is theirs, not Trump’s.

    Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey told reporters that the DHS statement was “bullsh*t. This was an agent recklessly using power that resulted in somebody dying, getting killed.” “To the family, I’m so deeply sorry,” Frey said. “There’s nothing that I can say right now that’s going to make you or your relatives, friends of the victim feel any better.” To ICE and other federal agents deployed in Minnesota, he added: “Get the f*ck out of Minneapolis. We do not want you here. Your stated reason for being in this city is to create some kind of safety, and you are doing exactly the opposite. People are being hurt. Families are being ripped apart…and now somebody is dead.”

    But something else was also going on today. At the same time the administration was pouring gasoline on the domestic fire ICE had sparked and the international fire it had set with its attacks on Venezuela and threats against Greenland, it was quietly making a number of major financial moves.

    The smallest of those moves was that today Trump asked Fulton County, Georgia, for a $6.2 million payout in attorneys’ fees and costs after the criminal charges against him in Georgia were dismissed. Trump had been indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election in Georgia by pressuring Georgia secretary of state Brad Raffensberger to “find” 11,780 votes to give him a victory in the state of Georgia. In November 2025 a new special prosecutor dropped the charges, citing the difficulty of prosecuting a case against a sitting president. Trump boasted on social media of his victory over an “illegal, unconstitutional, and unAmerican hoax,” and continued to push the lie that Democrats stole the election.

    Vicky Ge Huang of the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump family’s cryptocurrency venture World Liberty Financial today applied for a national banking license from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, part of the Treasury Department. A banking license would integrate the Trump family’s cryptocurrency more fully into mainstream finance.

    If the Treasury Department issues the license—a potential outcome that critics say reveals a major conflict of interest for the president—the president and chair of the new company would be Zach Witkoff, whose father is Trump’s envoy to Russia Steve Witkoff, who the Wall Street Journal recently reported had been handpicked for his role by Russian president Vladimir Putin. The younger Witkoff started World Liberty Financial in 2024 with Trump’s sons Don Jr., Eric, and Barron.

    Today, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told an audience at a Goldman Sachs energy industry event in Miami, Florida, that the United States will take control of all oil from Venezuela for the foreseeable future. Lisa Desjardins and Nick Schifrin of PBS NewsHour reported this afternoon that Trump administration officials have told lawmakers that they plan to put the money raised from their seizure of Venezuelan oil into bank accounts outside the U.S. Treasury. Desjardins clarified that “[s]ources said they understood these as similar [to] or decidedly ‘off-shore’ accounts.”

    Yesterday, Trump announced that, as president of the United States, he would control the money from the sale of Venezuelan oil.

    And then, this afternoon, Trump’s social media account first threatened the defense contractor Raytheon, saying that “[e]ither Raytheon steps up, and starts investing in more upfront Investment like Plants and Equipment, or they will no longer be doing business with Department of War.”

    Then, the same account posted: “After long and difficult negotiations with Senators, Congressmen, Secretaries, and other Political Representatives, I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars. This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe. If it weren’t for the tremendous numbers being produced by Tariffs from other Countries, many of which, in the past, have ‘ripped off’ the United States at levels never seen before, I would stay at the $1 Trillion Dollar number but, because of Tariffs, and the tremendous income they bring, amounts being generated, that would have been unthinkable in the past (especially just one year ago during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, the Worst President in the History of our Country!), we are able to easily hit the $1.5 Trillion Dollar number while, at the same time, producing an unparalleled Military Force, and having the ability to, at the same time, pay down Debt, and likewise, pay a substantial Dividend to moderate income Patriots within our Country!”

    Simon Rosenberg of The Hopium Chronicles wrote: “Trump has gone completely mad.”

    Notes:

    https://www.404media.co/dhs-is-lying-to-you-about-ice-shooting-a-woman/

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/01/07/trump-oil-venezuela-subsidies/

    https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/fact-check-trumps-georgia-call-raffensperger

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/final-criminal-case-against-trump-dismissed-after-georgia-prosecutor-drops-charges

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-georgia-election-interference-case-dropped-rcna246069

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/2000-federal-agents-sent-to-minneapolis-area-to-carry-out-largest-immigration-operation-ever-ice-says

    https://www.startribune.com/ice-raids-minnesota/601546426

    https://www.thetrace.org/2025/12/immigration-ice-shootings-guns-tracker/

    https://abc7chicago.com/post/department-justice-drops-charges-marimar-martinez-anthony-ruiz-accused-ramming-customs-border-protection-car/18180857/

    https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/live-updates/minneapolis-federal-agents-protesters-clash-portland-avenue/

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/minneapolis-mayor-jacob-frey-ice-shooting/

    https://time.com/7344506/minneapolis-ice-shooting-mayor/

    https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-witkoff-russia-envoy-04da229d

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/world-liberty-flagship-in-trumps-crypto-fleet-seeks-a-u-s-banking-license-72cca502

    X:

    ScarboroughNow/status/2009005303841632288

    donwinslow/status/2008994726306066485

    DebunkTheRight/status/2008999900189741490

    LisaDNews/status/2008998959235407904

    DHSgov/status/2008958123092979817

    GovTimWalz/status/2008980259199394021

    Bluesky:

    jessicaschulberg.bsky.social/post/3mbuggqgmzk2n

    annabower.bsky.social/post/3mbuhkmyvqk25

    editorialboard.bsky.social/post/3mbuifr7si22k

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    Share

    Friday: Employment Report, Housing Starts, Flow of Funds

    Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

    Friday:
    • At 8:30 AM ET,: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%.

    • At 10:00 AM: Housing Starts for September and October.

    • At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January)

    • At 12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

    My Microsoft podcast on AI

    Here is the link, here is part of their description:

    Economist and public thinker Tyler Cowen joins host Molly Wood to explore why AI adoption is so challenging for many employees, organizations, and educational institutions. As he puts it,”This may sound counterintuitive, but under a lot of scenarios, the more unhappy people are, the better we’re doing, because that means a lot of change.”

    In passing I will point out that the AI pessimism that started around 2023, with the release of GPT-4, is looking worse and worse.  I am not talking about “the end of the world” views, rather “the stochastic parrot” critiques and the like.  Dustbin of history, etc.

    The post My Microsoft podcast on AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

           

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    December Employment Preview

    On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%.

    From Goldman Sachs:
    We forecast that payrolls rose 70k (vs. 55k consensus) in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% (vs. 4.5% consensus). ... We expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 4.5% because the increase to 4.6% in November largely reflected the impact of furloughed federal government workers during the shutdown.
    emphasis added
    From BofA:
    Dec NFP are likely to tick up to a stable 70k (private: 75k) print, higher than consensus expectations. Initial claims remain low and continuing claims have trended lower since Oct. Education & health jobs should remain the driver of payroll growth. Given the strength in air travel and holiday spending, we project a rise in leisure & hospitality jobs. After the u-rate jumping to 4.6% in Nov, in part due to shutdown-related distortions, we expect a decline to 4.5%. It is likely that the worst is behind us in the labor market.
    ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 41,000 private sector jobs were added in December.  This was slightly below consensus forecasts.  However, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report.

    ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased to 44.9%, up from 44.0% the previous month. This suggests manufacturing jobs lost in December. The ADP report indicated 5,000 manufacturing jobs lost in December.

    The ISM® services employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%.  This suggests job gains in December.  

    Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 224,000 in December compared to 222,000 in November.  This suggests about the same number of layoffs in December as in November.

    Conclusion: Over the last 6 months, employment gains averaged 17 thousand per month.  The ADP report, the ISM Surveys, and unemployment claims suggest similar gains in December compared to November.   I'll take the over for December - but still weak hiring.

    A data model for Git (and other docs updates)

    Hello! This past fall, I decided to take some time to work on Git’s documentation. I’ve been thinking about working on open source docs for a long time – usually if I think the documentation for something could be improved, I’ll write a blog post or a zine or something. But this time I wondered: could I instead make a few improvements to the official documentation?

    So Marie and I made a few changes to the Git documentation!

    a data model for Git

    After a while working on the documentation, we noticed that Git uses the terms “object”, “reference”, or “index” in its documentation a lot, but that it didn’t have a great explanation of what those terms mean or how they relate to other core concepts like “commit” and “branch”. So we wrote a new “data model” document!

    You can read the data model here for now. I assume at some point (after the next release?) it’ll also be on the Git website.

    I’m excited about this because understanding how Git organizes its commit and branch data has really helped me reason about how Git works over the years, and I think it’s important to have a short (1600 words!) version of the data model that’s accurate.

    The “accurate” part turned out to not be that easy: I knew the basics of how Git’s data model worked, but during the review process I learned some new details and had to make quite a few changes (for example how merge conflicts are stored in the staging area).

    updates to git push, git pull, and more

    I also worked on updating the introduction to some of Git’s core man pages. I quickly realized that “just try to improve it according to my best judgement” was not going to work: why should the maintainers believe me that my version is better?

    I’ve seen a problem a lot when discussing open source documentation changes where 2 expert users of the software argue about whether an explanation is clear or not (“I think X would be a good way to explain it! Well, I think Y would be better!”)

    I don’t think this is very productive (expert users of a piece of software are notoriously bad at being able to tell if an explanation will be clear to non-experts), so I needed to find a way to identify problems with the man pages that was a little more evidence-based.

    getting test readers to identify problems

    I asked for test readers on Mastodon to read the current version of documentation and tell me what they find confusing or what questions they have. About 80 test readers left comments, and I learned so much!

    People left a huge amount of great feedback, for example:

    • terminology they didn’t understand (what’s a pathspec? what does “reference” mean? does “upstream” have a specific meaning in Git?)
    • specific confusing sentences
    • suggestions of things things to add (“I do X all the time, I think it should be included here”)
    • inconsistencies (“here it implies X is the default, but elsewhere it implies Y is the default”)

    Most of the test readers had been using Git for at least 5-10 years, which I think worked well – if a group of test readers who have been using Git regularly for 5+ years find a sentence or term impossible to understand, it makes it easy to argue that the documentation should be updated to make it clearer.

    I thought this “get users of the software to comment on the existing documentation and then fix the problems they find” pattern worked really well and I’m excited about potentially trying it again in the future.

    the man page changes

    We ended updating these 4 man pages:

    The git push and git pull changes were the most interesting to me: in addition to updating the intro to those pages, we also ended up writing:

    Making those changes really gave me an appreciation for how much work it is to maintain open source documentation: it’s not easy to write things that are both clear and true, and sometimes we had to make compromises, for example the sentence “git push may fail if you haven’t set an upstream for the current branch, depending on what push.default is set to.” is a little vague, but the exact details of what “depending” means are really complicated and untangling that is a big project.

    on the process for contributing to Git

    It took me a while to understand Git’s development process. I’m not going to try to describe it here (that could be a whole other post!), but a few quick notes:

    • Git has a Discord server with a “my first contribution” channel for help with getting started contributing. I found people to be very welcoming on the Discord.
    • I used GitGitGadget to make all of my contributions. This meant that I could make a GitHub pull request (a workflow I’m comfortable with) and GitGitGadget would convert my PRs into the system the Git developers use (emails with patches attached). GitGitGadget worked great and I was very grateful to not have to learn how to send patches by email with Git.
    • Otherwise I used my normal email client (Fastmail’s web interface) to reply to emails, wrapping my text to 80 character lines since that’s the mailing list norm.

    I also found the mailing list archives on lore.kernel.org hard to navigate, so I hacked together my own git list viewer to make it easier to read the long mailing list threads.

    Many people helped me navigate the contribution process and review the changes: thanks to Emily Shaffer, Johannes Schindelin (the author of GitGitGadget), Patrick Steinhardt, Ben Knoble, Junio Hamano, and more.

    (I’m experimenting with comments on Mastodon, you can see the comments here)

    📙 #078 - Making Brushstrokes

    When I was a kid there was a TV program called “The Adventure Game”, each episode (from series 2 onwards) ended with The Vortex.

    The game was played on a triangle/hex lattice (3-4-3-4-3-4-3), with the celebrity player, often a children’s tv presenter, at one side and the “vortex” at the other, which was invisible to the player. They’d take it in turns to move, and if they player moved into the vortex’s space they were eliminated.

    Obviously with the vortex being invisible this was somewhat a game of chance, but it did allow me to divide tv celebrities into those who were cool, and those who clearly didn’t fucking understand game theory, probability, and optimising a statistically correct strategy.

    No Keith No! Don’t move to that spot on the very edge, now you’ve limited the number of viable next moves and reduced your chances of winning. Oh God, he’s moved backwards, the twat!

    And that’s how Keith Chegwin got sucked off by the vortex! This would never have happened to Maggie Philbin*.

    I was 9 at the time, and not yet diagnosed with autism, but the signs were there.


    # MAKING COHERENT BRUSH STROKES

    I’ve been plotting my postcards for the #ptpx2025 Pen Plotter Postcard Exchange, with (sometimes) fancy ink, brush pens and the ArtFrame drawing machine, which allows me to control the height of the brush using the magic of GCODE.

    I wanted to share a little of the behind the scenes on this one ‘cause I think it’s fun. Here’s an image to get started, it’s my own mini version of the Vortex!

    The “game” is to generate nice sweeping brushstrokes that start at the top of the page/design and swoosh their way generally down. So here are the rules…

    • Randomly start at either position 0, 1, or 2.

    • Each “turn” you have a 10% chance of moving up, 20% chance of moving sideways and 70% chance of moving down. If you can’t move up, roll again. If there’s more than one option to move sideways or move down, flip a coin to see which way you go.

    • When you reach the bottom, take one more turn then end the “game”.

    • If there’s less than 8 points in the final path, throw it away and start over.

    This gives us a “random walk” that always starts at the top, and will eventually make it’s way to the bottom. Because they’re all based on the same underlying lattice/substrate they’ll be consistent.

    Next stage, throw in a pendulum.

    Ignore the complicated one on the right for the moment.

    Imagine a single point at the top of the page, and attach a pendulum that swings back and forth (and attach a pen to that pendulum). The pen would swoosh back and forth drawing an arc over and over until it rips through the paper (bad).

    Imagine a second point near the bottom of the page, and now let the pendulum’s pivot point slowly move from the top to the bottom, while swinging back and forth. You’d end up with back and forth swooshes going down the page (better, but boring).

    Now, much harder to imagine, but thankfully pretty easy to code, a pendulum that swings back and forth, as the pivot point it’s attached to slowly moves along the path we created.

    Here’s the complicated one from above, with all the points along the path. BUT, an added rule; as the brush/line moves downwards the line gets thicker (and on the drawing machine we move the brush closer to the paper), and as we move upwards the line gets thinner (we move the brush away from the paper).

    You’ll probably have noticed there’s actually two lines 🤔

    This is because I want the main black line, and then a “sympathetic” supporting coloured line. The two lines are created by starting two pendulums at slightly different angles & swinging at slightly different speeds.

    They’ll slowly move out of sync as it moves towards the end of the design, but because they follow the same path they’ll be in roughly the same area (as opposed to both lines doing their own thing).


    # INK

    I need to get Kitty to write on some of these and then get them into the post. I have, of course, plotted far too many so I’m going to be sending extra ones out over the next few months, and Patreon.


    # THE END

    For lots of my friend 2026 has started as terribly as 2025 finished. So let’s just go with fuck you 2025 and fuck you 2026 too while we’re at it, may as well get it in now. I hope your holiday time and new year was okay, but sending my love if it wasn’t, fwiw.

    I’m spinning things back up here & getting back into my stride, with the next Drawing Machines 101 video going out soon. Certainly sooner than the next newsletter which’ll be with you on Thursday, 22nd of January.

    Love you all,
    Dan
    🧡


    * Because Maggie Philbin was in series one, and the vortex wasn’t introduced until series two.

    Why Are Grok and X Still Available in App Stores?

    Caroline Haskins, writing for Wired (News+ link, in case Wired’s paywall blocks you):

    Elon Musk’s AI chatbot Grok is being used to flood X with thousands of sexualized images of adults and apparent minors wearing minimal clothing. Some of this content appears to not only violate X’s own policies, which prohibit sharing illegal content such as child sexual abuse material (CSAM), but may also violate the guidelines of Apple’s App Store and the Google Play store.

    Apple and Google both explicitly ban apps containing CSAM, which is illegal to host and distribute in many countries. The tech giants also forbid apps that contain pornographic material or facilitate harassment. The Apple App Store says it doesn’t allow “overtly sexual or pornographic material,” as well as “defamatory, discriminatory, or mean-spirited content,” especially if the app is “likely to humiliate, intimidate, or harm a targeted individual or group.” The Google Play store bans apps that “contain or promote content associated with sexually predatory behavior, or distribute non-consensual sexual content,” and well as programs that “contain or facilitate threats, harassment, or bullying.”

    Over the past two years, Apple and Google removed a number of “nudify” and AI image-generation apps after investigations by the BBC and 404 Media found they were being advertised or used to effectively turn ordinary photos into explicit images of women without their consent.

    But at the time of publication, both the X app and the standalone Grok app remain available in both app stores. Apple, Google, and X did not respond to requests for comment.

    I just browsed through the last five minutes of replies generated by Grok on Twitter/X, and saw both seeming CSAM (all young Asian women) and just outright hardcore pornographic video (that, for what it’s worth, seemed to feature adults, whether real or generated).

    It was a barely concealed secret before Musk bought Twitter that Twitter had an active dark underbelly of pornographic content. But you had to know where to look for it. It really wasn’t something you might just stumble upon. Now you get hardcore porno just by looking at the profile page for Grok. And any user can send any photo they want to @grok and tell it to change or remove the subject’s clothing and change their pose. Lord only knows what people are generating privately using the standalone Grok app.

    If a new social network app launched featuring this content, it surely would be removed from the App Store and Play Store. X is seemingly untouchable for political reasons.

    Update: Recall that Apple pulled the Tumblr app from the App Store in 2018 for similar content.

     ★ 

    Thursday assorted links

    1. Advancements in self-driving cars.

    2. Infosys partners with Cognition.  Rolling out Devin.  Significant.

    3. ChatGPT Health is launched.

    4. The Final Offshoring?

    5. Excellent year in review from Sebastian Garren.

    6. AI begins prescribing medications in Utah.

    7. “Breaking: JPMorgan is cutting all ties with proxy advisory firms and replacing them with AI to help cast shareholder votes

    You’ve got Sebastian’s excellent letter, and then a whole bunch of okie-dokie for the day.

    The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

           

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    *Resurrection*

    That is the new Chinese movie, noting that the original title translates better as “Feral/Wild Age,” and you can think of it as a retelling of the history of the 20th century, from a Straussian Chinese point of view.  Are parts also a retelling of the Buddha story, but what if a Buddha came to earth in contemporary times?  Toss in “Chinese Ghost Story” and some vampires, and you have a pretty strange mix.  Here is a good critical overview, including an interview with the director Bi Gan.

    Scott Sumner noted he may well end up considering this to be his favorite movie of the decade.  Visually, it is one of the most interesting movies of the last twenty-five years.  Also, the attentive viewer will catch visual references to Dreyer, Uncle Boonmee, Stalker, Enter the Dragon, Rashomon, David Lynch, Matt Barney, and much more.  Resurrection is also a homage to cinema, and to the passing of cinema, I would say.

    As for the plot, I still am not sure.  Perhaps it demands repeat viewings?  I do not feel it is a spoiler to tell you there is one character taking five different guises.  In any case, this is a major work of creative art and I am very glad I saw it.  Large screen is mandatory of course.

    The post *Resurrection* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

           

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    Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased Slightly in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year

    From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 Trends
    The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to December 2024. The December index is up 0.1% month over month.
    emphasis added
    Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Click on graph for larger image.

    This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

    The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in December (seasonally adjusted) and were up 0.4% YoY.

    AI & Humans: Making the Relationship Work

    Leaders of many organizations are urging their teams to adopt agentic AI to improve efficiency, but are finding it hard to achieve any benefit. Managers attempting to add AI agents to existing human teams may find that bots fail to faithfully follow their instructions, return pointless or obvious results or burn precious time and resources spinning on tasks that older, simpler systems could have accomplished just as well.

    The technical innovators getting the most out of AI are finding that the technology can be remarkably human in its behavior. And the more groups of AI agents are given tasks that require cooperation and collaboration, the more those human-like dynamics emerge.

    Our research suggests that, because of how directly they seem to apply to hybrid teams of human and digital workers, the most effective leaders in the coming years may still be those who excel at understanding the timeworn principles of human management.

    We have spent years studying the risks and opportunities for organizations adopting AI. Our 2025 book, Rewiring Democracy, examines lessons from AI adoption in government institutions and civil society worldwide. In it, we identify where the technology has made the biggest impact and where it fails to make a difference. Today, we see many of the organizations we’ve studied taking another shot at AI adoption—this time, with agentic tools. While generative AI generates, agentic AI acts and achieves goals such as automating supply chain processes, making data-driven investment decisions or managing complex project workflows. The cutting edge of AI development research is starting to reveal what works best in this new paradigm.

    Understanding Agentic AI

    There are four key areas where AI should reliably boast superhuman performance: in speed, scale, scope and sophistication. Again and again, the most impactful AI applications leverage their capabilities in one or more of these areas. Think of content-moderation AI that can scan thousands of posts in an instant, legislative policy tools that can scale deliberations to millions of constituents, and protein-folding AI that can model molecular interactions with greater sophistication than any biophysicist.

    Equally, AI applications that don’t leverage these core capabilities typically fail to impress. For example, Google’s AI Overviews irritate many of its users when the overviews obscure information that could be more efficiently consumed straight from the web results that the AI attempted to synthesize.

    Agentic AI extends these core advantages of AI to new tasks and scenarios. The most familiar AI tools are chatbots, image generators and other models that take a single action: ask one question, get one answer. Agentic systems solve more complex problems by using many such AI models and giving each one the capability to use tools like retrieving information from databases and perform tasks like sending emails or executing financial transactions.

    Because agentic systems are so new and their potential configurations so vast, we are still learning which business processes they will fit well with and which they will not. Gartner has estimated that 40 per cent of agentic AI projects will be cancelled within two years, largely because they are targeted where they can’t achieve meaningful business impact.

    Understanding Agentic AI behavior

    To understand the collective behaviors of agentic AI systems, we need to examine the individual AIs that comprise them. When AIs make mistakes or make things up, they can behave in ways that are truly bizarre. But when they work well, the reasons why are sometimes surprisingly relatable.

    Tools like ChatGPT drew attention by sounding human. Moreover, individual AIs often behave like individual people, responding to incentives and organizing their own work in much the same ways that humans do. Recall the counterintuitive findings of many early users of ChatGPT and similar large language models (LLMs) in 2022: They seemed to perform better when offered a cash tip, told the answer was really important or were threatened with hypothetical punishments.

    One of the most effective and enduring techniques discovered in those early days of LLM testing was ‘chain-of-thought prompting,’ which instructed AIs to think through and explain each step of their analysis—much like a teacher forcing a student to show their work. Individual AIs can also react to new information similar to individual people. Researchers have found that LLMs can be effective at simulating the opinions of individual people or demographic groups on diverse topics, including consumer preferences and politics.

    As agentic AI develops, we are finding that groups of AIs also exhibit human-like behaviors collectively. A 2025 paper found that communities of thousands of AI agents set to chat with each other developed familiar human social behaviors like settling into echo chambers. Other researchers have observed the emergence of cooperative and competitive strategies and the development of distinct behavioral roles when setting groups of AIs to play a game together.

    The fact that groups of agentic AIs are working more like human teams doesn’t necessarily indicate that machines have inherently human-like characteristics. It may be more nurture than nature: AIs are being designed with inspiration from humans. The breakthrough triumph of ChatGPT was widely attributed to using human feedback during training. Since then, AI developers have gotten better at aligning AI models to human expectations. It stands to reason, then, that we may find similarities between the management techniques that work for human workers and for agentic AI.

    Lessons From the Frontier

    So, how best to manage hybrid teams of humans and agentic AIs? Lessons can be gleaned from leading AI labs. In a recent research report, Anthropic shared the practical roadmap and published lessons learned while building its Claude Research feature, which uses teams of multiple AI agents to accomplish complex reasoning tasks. For example, using agents to search the web for information and calling external tools to access information from sources like emails and documents.

    Advancements in agentic AI enabling new offerings like Claude Research and Amazon Q are causing a stir among AI practitioners because they reveal insights from the frontlines of AI research about how to make agentic AI and the hybrid organizations that leverage it more effective. What is striking about Anthropic’s report is how transparent it is about all the hard-won lessons learned in developing its offering—and the fact that many of these lessons sound a lot like what we find in classic management texts:

    LESSON 1: DELEGATION MATTERS.

    When Anthropic analyzed what factors lead to excellent performance by Claude Research, it turned out that the best agentic systems weren’t necessarily built on the best or most expensive AI models. Rather, like a good human manager, they need to excel at breaking down and distributing tasks to their digital workers.

    Unlike human teams, agentic systems can enlist as many AI workers as needed, onboard them instantly and immediately set them to work. Organizations that can exploit this scalability property of AI will gain a key advantage, but the hard part is assigning each of them to contribute meaningful, complementary work to the overall project.

    In classical management, this is called delegation. Any good manager knows that, even if they have the most experience and the strongest skills of anyone on their team, they can’t do it all alone. Delegation is necessary to harness the collective capacity of their team. It turns out this is crucial to AI, too.

    The authors explain this result in terms of ‘parallelization’: Being able to separate the work into small chunks allows many AI agents to contribute work simultaneously, each focusing on one piece of the problem. The research report attributes 80 per cent of the performance differences between agentic AI systems to the total amount of computing resources they leverage.

    Whether or not each individual agent is the smartest in the digital toolbox, the collective has more capacity for reasoning when there are many AI ‘hands’ working together. In addition to the quality of the output, teams working in parallel get work done faster. Anthropic says that reconfiguring its AI agents to work in parallel improved research speed by 90 per cent.

    Anthropic’s report on how to orchestrate agentic systems effectively reads like a classical delegation training manual: Provide a clear objective, specify the output you expect and provide guidance on what tools to use, and set boundaries. When the objective and output format is not clear, workers may come back with irrelevant or irreconcilable information.

    LESSON 2: ITERATION MATTERS.

    Edison famously tested thousands of light bulb designs and filament materials before arriving at a workable solution. Likewise, successful agentic AI systems work far better when they are allowed to learn from their early attempts and then try again. Claude Research spawns a multitude of AI agents, each doubling and tripling back on their own work as they go through a trial-and-error process to land on the right results.

    This is exactly how management researchers have recommended organizations staff novel projects where large teams are tasked with exploring unfamiliar terrain: Teams should split up and conduct trial-and-error learning, in parallel, like a pharmaceutical company progressing multiple molecules towards a potential clinical trial. Even when one candidate seems to have the strongest chances at the outset, there is no telling in advance which one will improve the most as it is iterated upon.

    The advantage of using AI for this iterative process is speed: AI agents can complete and retry their tasks in milliseconds. A recent report from Microsoft Research illustrates this. Its agentic AI system launched up to five AI worker teams in a race to finish a task first, each plotting and pursuing its own iterative path to the destination. They found that a five-team system typically returned results about twice as fast as a single AI worker team with no loss in effectiveness, although at the cost of about twice as much total computing spend.

    Going further, Claude Research’s system design endowed its top-level AI agent—the ‘Lead Researcher’—with the decision authority to delegate more research iterations if it was not satisfied with the results returned by its sub-agents. They managed the choice of whether or not they should continue their iterative search loop, to a limit. To the extent that agentic AI mirrors the world of human management, this might be one of the most important topics to watch going forward. Deciding when to stop and what is ‘good enough’ has always been one of the hardest problems organizations face.

    LESSON 3: EFFECTIVE INFORMATION SHARING MATTERS.

    If you work in a manufacturing department, you wouldn’t rely on your division chief to explain the specs you need to meet for a new product. You would go straight to the source: the domain experts in R&D. Successful organizations need to be able to share complex information efficiently both vertically and horizontally.

    To solve the horizontal sharing problem for Claude Research, Anthropic innovated a novel mechanism for AI agents to share their outputs directly with each other by writing directly to a common file system, like a corporate intranet. In addition to saving on the cost of the central coordinator having to consume every sub-agent’s output, this approach helps resolve the information bottleneck. It enables AI agents that have become specialized in their tasks to own how their content is presented to the larger digital team. This is a smart way to leverage the superhuman scope of AI workers, enabling each of many AI agents to act as distinct subject matter experts.

    In effect, Anthropic’s AI Lead Researchers must be generalist managers. Their job is to see the big picture and translate that into the guidance that sub-agents need to do their work. They don’t need to be experts on every task the sub-agents are performing. The parallel goes further: AIs working together also need to know the limits of information sharing, like what kinds of tasks don’t make sense to distribute horizontally.

    Management scholars suggest that human organizations focus on automating the smallest tasks; the ones that are most repeatable and that can be executed the most independently. Tasks that require more interaction between people tend to go slower, since the communication not only adds overhead, but is something that many struggle to do effectively.

    Anthropic found much the same was true of its AI agents: “Domains that require all agents to share the same context or involve many dependencies between agents are not a good fit for multi-agent systems today.” This is why the company focused its premier agentic AI feature on research, a process that can leverage a large number of sub-agents each performing repetitive, isolated searches before compiling and synthesizing the results.

    All of these lessons lead to the conclusion that knowing your team and paying keen attention to how to get the best out of them will continue to be the most important skill of successful managers of both humans and AIs. With humans, we call this leadership skill empathy. That concept doesn’t apply to AIs, but the techniques of empathic managers do.

    Anthropic got the most out of its AI agents by performing a thoughtful, systematic analysis of their performance and what supports they benefited from, and then used that insight to optimize how they execute as a team. Claude Research is designed to put different AI models in the positions where they are most likely to succeed. Anthropic’s most intelligent Opus model takes the Lead Researcher role, while their cheaper and faster Sonnet model fulfills the more numerous sub-agent roles. Anthropic has analyzed how to distribute responsibility and share information across its digital worker network. And it knows that the next generation of AI models might work in importantly different ways, so it has built performance measurement and management systems that help it tune its organizational architecture to adapt to the characteristics of its AI ‘workers.’

    Key Takeaways

    Managers of hybrid teams can apply these ideas to design their own complex systems of human and digital workers:

    DELEGATE.

    Analyze the tasks in your workflows so that you can design a division of labour that plays to the strength of each of your resources. Entrust your most experienced humans with the roles that require context and judgment and entrust AI models with the tasks that need to be done quickly or benefit from extreme parallelization.

    If you’re building a hybrid customer service organization, let AIs handle tasks like eliciting pertinent information from customers and suggesting common solutions. But always escalate to human representatives to resolve unique situations and offer accommodations, especially when doing so can carry legal obligations and financial ramifications. To help them work together well, task the AI agents with preparing concise briefs compiling the case history and potential resolutions to help humans jump into the conversation.

    ITERATE.

    AIs will likely underperform your top human team members when it comes to solving novel problems in the fields in which they are expert. But AI agents’ speed and parallelization still make them valuable partners. Look for ways to augment human-led explorations of new territory with agentic AI scouting teams that can explore many paths for them in advance.

    Hybrid software development teams will especially benefit from this strategy. Agentic coding AI systems are capable of building apps, autonomously making improvements to and bug-fixing their code to meet a spec. But without humans in the loop, they can fall into rabbit holes. Examples abound of AI-generated code that might appear to satisfy specified requirements, but diverges from products that meet organizational requirements for security, integration or user experiences that humans would truly desire. Take advantage of the fast iteration of AI programmers to test different solutions, but make sure your human team is checking its work and redirecting the AI when needed.

    SHARE.

    Make sure each of your hybrid team’s outputs are accessible to each other so that they can benefit from each others’ work products. Make sure workers doing hand-offs write down clear instructions with enough context that either a human colleague or AI model could follow. Anthropic found that AI teams benefited from clearly communicating their work to each other, and the same will be true of communication between humans and AI in hybrid teams.

    MEASURE AND IMPROVE.

    Organizations should always strive to grow the capabilities of their human team members over time. Assume that the capabilities and behaviors of your AI team members will change over time, too, but at a much faster rate. So will the ways the humans and AIs interact together. Make sure to understand how they are performing individually and together at the task level, and plan to experiment with the roles you ask AI workers to take on as the technology evolves.

    An important example of this comes from medical imaging. Harvard Medical School researchers have found that hybrid AI-physician teams have wildly varying performance as diagnosticians. The problem wasn’t necessarily that the AI has poor or inconsistent performance; what mattered was the interaction between person and machine. Different doctors’ diagnostic performance benefited—or suffered—at different levels when they used AI tools. Being able to measure and optimize those interactions, perhaps at the individual level, will be critical to hybrid organizations.

    In Closing

    We are in a phase of AI technology where the best performance is going to come from mixed teams of humans and AIs working together. Managing those teams is not going to be the same as we’ve grown used to, but the hard-won lessons of decades past still have a lot to offer.

    This essay was written with Nathan E. Sanders, and originally appeared in Rotman Management Magazine.

    The Obvious, the Easy, and the Possible

    This 2021 post from Jason Fried is a good chaser to his “The Big Regression” this week (which I linked to yesterday):

    Much of the tension in product development and interface design comes from trying to balance the obvious, the easy, and the possible. Figuring out which things go in which bucket is critical to fully understanding how to make something useful.

    Shouldn’t everything be obvious? Unless you’re making a product that just does one thing — like a paperclip, for example — everything won’t be obvious. You have to make tough calls about what needs to be obvious, what should be easy, and what should be possible. The more things something (a product, a feature, a screen, etc) does, the more calls you have to make.

    This isn’t the same as prioritizing things. High, medium, low priority doesn’t tell you enough about the problem. “What needs to be obvious?” is a better question to ask than “What’s high priority?” Further, priority doesn’t tell you anything about cost. And the first thing to internalize is that everything has a cost.

    Obvious / easy / possible is a good filter through which to create — and critique — designs. To borrow an example from yesterday: old-fashioned analog light switches are exemplars of obviousness; most new-fashioned smart switches are exemplars of possibility.

     ★ 

    A Tragic, Foreseeable ICE Shooting

    The tragic fatal shooting by an ICE officer a citizen feels as if was the inevitable failure of assigning armed, undertrained, masked agents into our city streets to do widespread deportation raids in residential neighborhoods.

    So, too, is the pitched verbal battle over who was to blame.

    Without any investigation or evidence. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Donald Trump already had decided that the slain woman was a “domestic terrorist” who “weaponized her vehicle” and attempted “to run over our law enforcement officers in an attempt to kill them.” Noem said her officers felt under threat and were justified in firing into a car.

    The woman, Renee Good, 37, had been parked in the street as part of nonviolent protest.

    On the streets of Minneapolis, once again defiant citizens told a different story — one of an unprovoked shooting by a camo-clad agent into the car.

    There will be investigations, but, as always, the lines of partisanship already have outlined the beliefs at odds here.

    This Time, Videos

    Videos by bystanders seemed to show that the shooting in full daylight and among a small crowd happened without provocation. The videos show agents approaching the car and one vigorously trying to open the driver door. The car clearly backed up away from ICE officers – something that contradicts Noem’s account. One ICE officer is seen partially in front of the car as it moves forward, away from the officers. That agent is seen firing his gun as the car drives by him. Three gunshots can be heard.

    There was no attempt to save the shot woman despite the presence of a platoon of agents. A video showed agents keeping a doctor away from the shooting victim.

    Mayor Jacob Frey told ICE to get out of town, using vulgarities to say that rather than bringing safety to streets, they have disgorged violence. Gov. Tim Walz said the account from the feds could not be believed. Local clergy took to the streets to keep things calm.

    By any law enforcement analysis, shooting an unarmed driver through the front windshield into a car is not approved policy or training. Noem couldn’t even get straight the detail that the agents were stuck in the snow, and were hemmed in. The videos say they weren’t.

    The tragedy here is not only a death, but the idea that this outcome has been so predictable.

    Random neighborhood immigration sweeps without specific suspects with serious criminal backgrounds conducted by undertrained Homeland Security agents is a bad policy, poorly executed. Instant government lies about the inevitable mistakes just makes it that much worse.


    HELP US FIGHT BACK TO PROTECT YOUR RIGHTS. DONATE TODAY.

    The post A Tragic, Foreseeable ICE Shooting appeared first on DCReport.org.

    Trade Deficit Decreased to $29.4 Billion in October

    The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:
    The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in October, down $18.8 billion from $48.1 billion in September, revised.

    October exports were $302.0 billion, $7.8 billion more than September exports. October imports were $331.4 billion, $11.0 billion less than September imports.
    emphasis added
    U.S. Trade Exports Imports Click on graph for larger image.

    Exports increased and imports decreased in October. 

    Exports were up 12% year-over-year; imports were down 4% year-over-year.

    Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs.  

    The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

    U.S. Trade Deficit The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

    Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

    The trade deficit with China decreased to $14.9 billion from $28.1 billion a year ago.

    Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 208,000

    The DOL reported:
    In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 27, 2024 when it was 210,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 218,750 to 219,000.
    emphasis added
    The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

    Click on graph for larger image.

    The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 211,750.

    This was slightly above the consensus estimate.

    Performative Politics Matters

    No, this post isn’t about Venezuela, though, given the title, it could have been! No, this post is about this initiative by shiny, new Mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, who yesterday announced the following (boldface mine):

    New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani says the city will be holding “Rental Ripoff” hearings with tenants across the five boroughs and taking action against “unconscionable” business practices in the coming months.

    Mamdani signed an executive order Sunday directing his new Office of Mass Engagement and other city agencies to hold the hearings within his first 100 days in office.

    The mayor’s office said New Yorkers will be able to testify about their biggest challenges as renters, from shoddy building conditions to hidden fees, during hearings in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island…

    The administration said it will publish a detailed report on the hearings’ findings, including “common themes and areas of opportunity.”

    No, this by itself won’t make housing more affordable. But using this to build up support for good housing policy is smart. And having an Office of Mass Engagement is good: people want to have opportunities to be heard, and having an office that does this, and makes an effort to get people involved is good for democracy.

    Performative politics does matter.

    How Did TVs Get So Cheap?

    You’ve probably seen this famous graph that breaks out various categories of inflation, showing labor-intensive services getting more expensive during the 21st century and manufactured goods getting less expensive.

    One of the standout items is TVs, which have fallen in price more than any other major category on the chart. TVs have gotten so cheap that they’re vastly cheaper than 25 years ago even before adjusting for inflation. In 2001, Best Buy was selling a 50 inch big screen TV on Black Friday for $1100. Today a TV that size will set you back less than $200.

    Via Amazon.

    The plot below shows the price of TVs across Best Buy’s Black Friday ads for the last 25 years. The units are “dollars per area-pixel”: price divided by screen area times the number of pixels (normalized so that standard definition = 1). This is to account for the fact that bigger, higher resolution TVs are more expensive. You can see that, in line with the inflation chart, the price per area-pixel has fallen by more than 90%.

    This has prompted folks to wonder, how exactly did a complex manufactured good like the TV get so incredibly cheap?

    It was somewhat more difficult than I expected to suss out how TV manufacturing has gotten more efficient over time, possibly because the industry is highly secretive. Nonetheless, I was able to piece together what some of the major drivers of TV cost reduction over the last several decades have been. In short, every major efficiency improving mechanism that I identify in my book is on display when it comes to TV manufacturing.

    How an LCD TV works

    Since 2000, the story of TVs falling in price is largely the story of liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs going from a niche, expensive technology to a mass-produced and inexpensive one. As late as 2004, LCDs were just 5% of the TV market; by 2018, they were more than 95% of it.

    Liquid crystals are molecules that, as their name suggests, form regular, repetitive arrangements (like crystals) even as they remain a liquid. They exhibit two other important characteristics that together can be used to construct a display. First, the molecules can be made to change their orientation when an electric field is applied to them. Second, if polarized light (light oscillating within a single plane) passes through a liquid crystal, its plane of polarization will rotate, with the amount of rotation depending on the orientation of the liquid crystal.

    Liquid crystal rotating the plane of polarization of light, via Chemistry LibreTexts.

    LCD screens use these phenomena to build a display. Each pixel in an LCD TV contains three cells, which are each filled with liquid crystal and have either a red, green, or blue color filter. Light from behind the screen (provided by a backlight) first passes through a polarizing filter, blocking all light except light within a particular plane. This light then passes through the liquid crystal, altering the light’s plane of polarization, and then through the color filter, which only allows red, green, or blue light to pass. It then passes through another polarizing filter at a perpendicular orientation to the first. This last filter will let different amounts of light through, depending on how much its plane of polarization has been rotated. The result is an array of pixels with varying degrees of red, blue, and green light, which collectively make up the display.

    Structure of an LCD screen, via Nano Banana.

    On modern LCD TVs, the liquid crystals are combined together with a bunch of semiconductor technology. The backlight is provided by light emitting diodes (LEDs), and the electric field to rotate the liquid crystal within each cell is controlled by a thin-film transistor (TFT) built up directly on the glass surface.

    Some LCD screens, known as QLED, use quantum dots in the backlight to provide better picture quality, but these otherwise work very similarly to traditional LCD screens. There are also other types of display technology used for TVs, such as organic LEDs (OLED), that don’t use liquid crystal at all, but today these are still a small (but rising) fraction of total TV sales.

    It took decades for LCDs to become the primary technology used for TV screens. LCDs first found use in the 1970s in calculators, then other small electronic devices, then watches. By the 1980s they were being used for small portable TV screens, and then for laptop and computer screens. By the mid-1990s LCDs were displacing cathode ray tube (CRT) computer monitors, and by the early 2000s were being used for larger TVs.

    Steadily falling LCD TV Cost

    When LCD TVs first appeared, they were an expensive, luxury product. In this 2003 Black Friday ad, Best Buy is selling a 20 inch LCD TV (with “dazzling 640x480 resolution”) for $800. The same ad has a 27 inch CRT TV on sale for $150. (I remember wanting to buy an LCD TV when I went to college in 2003, but settling for a much cheaper CRT).

    How did the cost of LCD TVs come down?

    LCD TVs start life as a large sheet of extremely clear glass, known as “mother glass”, manufactured by companies like Corning. Layers of semiconductor material are deposited onto this glass and selectively etched away using photolithography, producing the thin film transistors that will be used to control the individual pixels. Once the transistors have been made, the liquid crystal is deposited into individual cells, and the color filter (built up on a separate sheet of glass) is attached. The mother glass is then cut into individual panels, and the rest of the components — polarizing filters, circuit boards, backlights — are added.

    LCD manufacturing process, via RJY Display.

    A key aspect of this process is that many manufacturing steps are performed on the large sheets of mother glass, before it’s been cut into individual display panels. And over time, these mother glass sheets have gotten larger and larger. The first “Generation 1” sheets of mother glass were around 12 inches by 16 inches. Today, Generation 10.5 mother glass sheets are 116 by 133 inches, nearly 100 times as large.

    Scaling up the size of mother glass sheets has been a major challenge. The larger the sheet of glass, and the larger the size of the display being cut from it, the more important it becomes to eliminate defects and impurities. As a result, manufacturers have had to find ways to keep very large surfaces pristine — LCDs today are manufactured in cleanroom conditions. And larger sheets of glass are more difficult to move. Corning built a mother glass plant right next to a Sharp LCD plant to avoid transportation bottlenecks and allow for increasingly large sheets of mother glass.

    However, there are substantial benefits to using larger sheets of glass. Due to geometric scaling effects, it’s more efficient to manufacture LCDs from larger sheets of mother glass, as the cost of the manufacturing equipment rises more slowly than the area of the glass panel. Going from Gen 4 to Gen 5 mother glass sheets reduced the cost per diagonal inch of LCD displays by 50%. From Gen 4 to Gen 8, the equipment costs per unit of LCD panel area fell by 80%. Mother glass scaling effects have, as I understand it, been the largest driver of LCD cost declines.

    Via Corning.

    LCDs have thus followed a similar path to semiconductor manufacturing, where an important driver of cost reduction has been manufacturers using larger and larger silicon wafers over time. In fact, sheets of mother glass have grown in size much faster than silicon wafers for semiconductor manufacturing:

    Via Corning.

    LCDs are thus an interesting example of costs falling due to the use of larger and larger batch sizes. Several decades of lean manufacturing and business schools assigning “The Goal” have convinced many folks that you should always aim to reduce batch size, and that the ideal manufacturing process is “one piece flow” where you’re processing a single unit at a time. But as we see in several processes — semiconductor manufacturing, LCD production, container shipping — increasing your batch size can, depending on the nature of your process, result in substantial cost savings.

    At the same time, we do see a tendency towards one piece flow at the level of mother glass panels. Early LCD fabs would bundle mother glass sheets together into cassettes, and then move those cassettes through subsequent steps of the manufacturing process. Modern LCD fabs use something much closer to a continuous process, where individual sheets of mother glass move through the process one at a time.

    Outside of larger and larger sheets of mother glass, there have been numerous other technology and process improvements that have allowed LCD costs to fall:

    • “Cluster” plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) machines were developed in the 1990s for depositing thin film transistor materials. These machines were much faster, and required much less maintenance, than previous machines.

    • Manufacturers have found ways to reduce the number of process steps required to create thin-film transistors. Early operations required eight separate masking steps to build up the transistors. This was eventually reduced to four.

    • Thanks to innovations like moving manufacturing operations into cleanrooms and replacing manual labor with robots, yields have improved. Early LCD manufacturing often operated at 50% yield, where modern operations achieve 90%+ yields.

    • Cutting efficiency – the fraction of a sheet of mother glass that actually goes into a display — has increased, thanks to strategies like Multi-Model Glass, which allows manufacturers to cut displays of different sizes from the same sheet of mother glass.

    • The technology for filling panels with liquid crystal has improved. Until the early 2000s, displays were filled with liquid crystal through capillary action: small gaps were left in the sealant used to create the individual crystal cells, which the liquid crystal would gradually be drawn into. It could take hours, or even days, to fill a panel with liquid crystal. The development of the “one drop fill” method — a process in which each cell is filled before the sealant was cured, and then UV light is used to cure the sealant — reduced the time required to fill a panel from days to minutes.

    • Glass substrates were gradually made more durable, which reduced defects and allowed for more aggressive, faster etching.

    Strategies for LCD manufacturing improvement, circa 2006. Via FPD 2006 Yearbook.

    More generally, because LCD manufacturing is very similar to semiconductor manufacturing , the industry has been able to benefit from advances in semiconductor production. (As one industry expert noted in 2005, “[t]he display manufacturing process is a lot like the semiconductor manufacturing process, it’s just simpler and bigger.”) LCD manufacturing has relied on equipment originally developed for semiconductor production (such as steppers for photolithography), and has tapped semiconductor industry expertise for things like minimizing contamination. Some semiconductor manufacturers (like Sharp) have later entered the LCD manufacturing market.

    LCD manufacturing has also greatly benefitted from economies of scale. A large, modern LCD fab will cost several billion dollars and produce over a million displays a day.1 It’s thanks to the enormous market for LCD screens that these huge, efficient fabs can be justified, and the investment in new, improved process technology can be recouped.

    Annual LCD production, via Corning.

    Falling LCD costs have also been driven by relentless competition. A 2014 presentation from Corning states that LCD “looks like a 25 year suicide pact for display manufacturers.” Manufacturers have been required to continuously make enormous investments in larger fabs and newer technology, even as profit margins are constantly threatened (and occasionally turning negative). This seems to have partly been driven by countries considering flat panel display manufacturing a strategic priority — the Corning presentation notes that manufacturing investments have been driven by nationalism, and there were various efforts to prop up US LCD manufacturing in the 90s and 2000s for strategic reasons.

    Conclusion

    Those who have read my book will not find much surprising in the story of TV cost declines. Virtually all the major mechanisms that can drive efficiency improvements — improving technology and overlapping S-curves, economies of scale (including geometric scaling effects), eliminating process steps, reducing variability and improving yield, advancing towards continuous process manufacturing — are on display here.

    1

    Though many of these will be phone-sized displays.

    The ‘space tax’ on your self-driving car

    LiDAR costs, compute power and AI training are the “big three” usually associated with the high cost of autonomous vehicles (AVs). We rarely look up. But maybe we should. High above the Earth, the ionosphere, a chaotic, sun-charged layer of our atmosphere, is levying an invisible tax on every self-driving car in development. If you […]

    The post The ‘space tax’ on your self-driving car appeared first on SpaceNews.

    Medical issue could force early end of Crew-11 ISS mission

    ISS spacewalk preps

    An unspecified “medical concern” involving one of the astronauts aboard the International Space Station has postponed a spacewalk and could force an unprecedented early return of part of the crew.

    The post Medical issue could force early end of Crew-11 ISS mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

    Interplanetary science needs a commercial backbone

    An illustration of Rocket Lab’s proposed Earth Return Orbiter, which would capture a container of samples launched from the Martian surface to return to Earth. Credit: Rocket Lab

    We are in an era where planetary science no longer depends on government missions. Commercial capabilities are mature and ready to deliver a higher cadence of planetary exploration that fits within proposed budgets. What’s missing is an operational model that matches ambition. The old way — one in which bespoke, government-run missions with decade-long development […]

    The post Interplanetary science needs a commercial backbone appeared first on SpaceNews.

    NASA continues to work toward February launch of Artemis 2

    Artemis 2

    NASA says it is continuing to prepare for a possible Artemis 2 launch as soon as February, but with remarkably little publicity for the historic mission.

    The post NASA continues to work toward February launch of Artemis 2 appeared first on SpaceNews.

    Commercial plasma collection in the US: the Jaworski report for 2025

     Peter Jaworski, a tireless student of blood donation around the world, has published a report on the plasma industry.  It's full of interesting facts, a few of which are highlighted below.

    America’s Plasma Contribution to the World: 2025
    Launching the Georgetown Blood and Plasma Research Group and the annual state of the U.S. plasma industry report
      by Peter Jaworski 

    "I am proud to announce the official launch of the Georgetown Blood and Plasma Research Group. Housed at Georgetown University, this initiative will serve as a dedicated academic hub for research on the ethics and economics of global supply chains for not only blood plasma, but blood, bone marrow, and other medically-useful substances of human origin. Our goal is to provide data-driven insights, foster serious philosophical discussion, and be a home for interdisciplinary research.
     

    "This 2025 Annual Report is the first contribution to that mission. 

    ...

    "As of December 31, there are 1,247 plasma collection centers in the United States (including four centers in Puerto Rico).

    "To put this into perspective: The U.S. is now home to more plasma centers than community colleges
    (just over 1,000) or Kohl’s department stores (around 1,175). There are almost as many plasma collection centers as Denny’s restaurants (around 1,300). 

    ...

    "we can look at the economics of independent plasma companies. Their business is to sell plasma to fractionators, not to make medicine from the plasma.

    "The current selling price of a liter of plasma is around $190, give or take $10.

    • Donors receive between 30-40% of that revenue, or around $70 (an average donation is 850 - 880 mL, requiring more than one donation to equal a liter).
    • The center spends a majority of the remaining revenue on costs like employees, supplies (“softgoods”), testing, and facility overhead.
    • The plasma center will pocket around 8-12%, or around $15 in profit. 

    ...

    "The U.S. plasma industry does more than save American lives, it provides the material for life-saving therapies for patients around the world.

    "The 62.5 million liters collected in the U.S. in 2025 represents around 68% of global plasma collections for the manufacture of medicines. About 52% of those collections will end up in medicines to treat American patients, while the remaining 48% will end up treating patients in the rest of the world."

    The Tyranny of the Complainers

    Some years ago, Dourado and Russell pointed out a stunning fact about airport noise complaints: A very large number come from a single individual or household.

    In 2015, for example, 6,852 of the 8,760 complaints submitted to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport originated from one residence in the affluent Foxhall neighborhood of northwest Washington, DC. The residents of that particular house called Reagan National to express irritation about aircraft noise an average of almost 19 times per day during 2015.

    Since then, total complaint volumes have exploded—but they are still coming from a tiny number of now apparently more “productive” individuals. In 2024, for example, one individual alone submitted 20,089 complaints, accounting for 25% of all complaints! Indeed, the total number of complainants was only 188 but they complained 79,918 times (an average of 425 per individual or more than one per day.)

    What I learned recently is that it’s not just airport noise complaints. We see the same pattern in data from the US Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights which enforces federal civil rights laws related to education funding. In 2023, for example, 5059 sexual discrimination complaints came from a single individual–from a total of 8151 complaints. Thus, one individual accounted for 68.5% of all sexual discrimination complaints in that year.

    In the annual reports for 2022-2024 the OCR identifies what type of complaint the single-individual with multiple complaints was making, a sex discrimination complaint, while in previous years they just give data on the number of complaints from single individuals compared to the total of all types of complaints. I’ve collated this data in this graph which presents totals compared to multiple complaints from a single individual without regard to the type of complaint. Do note, that there are also single individuals filing hundreds of other types of complaints such as age discrimination complaints so the data from more recent years may actually be an underestimate.

    In any case, it’s clear that a single individual often accounts for 10-30% of all complaints! These complaints have to be investigated so this single individual may be costing taxpayers millions. It’s as if a single individual were pulling a fire alarm thousands of times a year, mobilizing emergency services on demand, and never facing repercussions.

    Does this strategy work? Probably. When complaints are summarized for Congress or reported in the media, are totals presented as-is, or adjusted for spam?

    Increasingly, public institutions seem to exist to manage the obsessions of a tiny number of neurotic—and possibly malicious—complainers.

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    My excellent Conversation with Brendan Foody

    Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary:

    At 22, Brendan Foody is both the youngest Conversations with Tyler guest ever and the youngest unicorn founder on record. His company Mercor hires the experts who train frontier AI models—from poets grading verse to economists building evaluation frameworks—and has become one of the fastest-growing startups in history.

    Tyler and Brendan discuss why Mercor pays poets $150 an hour, why AI labs need rubrics more than raw text, whether we should enshrine the aesthetic standards of past eras rather than current ones, how quickly models are improving at economically valuable tasks, how long until AI can stump Cass Sunstein, the coming shift toward knowledge workers building RL environments instead of doing repetitive analysis, how to interview without falling for vibes, why nepotism might make a comeback as AI optimizes everyone’s cover letters, scaling the Thiel Fellowship 100,000X, what his 8th-grade donut empire taught him about driving out competition, the link between dyslexia and entrepreneurship, dining out and dating in San Francisco, Mercor’s next steps, and more.

    And an excerpt:

    COWEN: Now, I saw an ad online not too long ago from Mercor, and it said $150 an hour for a poet. Why would you pay a poet $150 an hour?

    FOODY: That’s a phenomenal place to start. For background on what the company does — we hire all of the experts that teach the leading AI models. When one of the AI labs wants to teach their models how to be better at poetry, we’ll find some of the best poets in the world that can help to measure success via creating evals and examples of how the model should behave.

    One of the reasons that we’re able to pay so well to attract the best talent is that when we have these phenomenal poets that teach the models how to do things once, they’re then able to apply those skills and that knowledge across billions of users, hence allowing us to pay $150 an hour for some of the best poets in the world.

    COWEN: The poets grade the poetry of the models or they grade the writing? What is it they’re grading?

    FOODY: It could be some combination depending on the project. An example might be similar to how a professor in English class would create a rubric to grade an essay or a poem that they might have for the students. We could have a poet that creates a rubric to grade how well is the model creating whatever poetry you would like, and a response that would be desirable to a given user.

    COWEN: How do you know when you have a good poet, or a great poet?

    FOODY: That’s so much of the challenge of it, especially with these very subjective domains in the liberal arts. So much of it is this question of taste, where you want some degree of consensus of different exceptional people believing that they’re each doing a good job, but you probably don’t want too much consensus because you also want to get all of these edge case scenarios of what are the models doing that might deviate a little bit from what the norm is.

    COWEN: So, you want your poet graders to disagree with each other some amount.

    FOODY: Some amount, exactly, but still a response that is conducive with what most users would want to see in their model responses.

    COWEN: Are you ever tempted to ask the AI models, “How good are the poet graders?”

    [laughter]

    FOODY: We often are. We do a lot of this. It’s where we’ll have the humans create a rubric or some eval to measure success, and then have the models say their perspective. You actually can get a little bit of signal from that, especially if you have an expert — we have tens of thousands of people that are working on our platform at any given time. Oftentimes, there’ll be someone that is tired or not putting a lot of effort into their work, and the models are able to help us with catching that.

    And:

    COWEN: Let’s say it’s poetry. Let’s say you can get it for free, grab what you want from the known universe. What’s the data that’s going to make the models, working through your company, better at poetry?

    FOODY: I think that it’s people that have phenomenal taste of what would users of the end products, users of these frontier models want to see. Someone that understands that when a prompt is given to the model, what is the type of response that people are going to be amazed with? How we define the characteristics of those responses is imperative.

    Probably more than just poets that have spent a lot of time in school, we would want people that know how to write work that gets a lot of traction from readers, that gains broad popularity and interest, drives the impact, so to speak, in whatever dimension that we define it within poetry.

    COWEN: But what’s the data you want concretely? Is it a tape of them sitting around a table, students come, bring their poems, the person says, “I like this one, here’s why, here’s why not.” Is it that tape or is it written reports? What’s the thing that would come in the mail when you get your wish?

    FOODY: The best analog is a rubric. If you have some —

    COWEN: A rubric for how to grade?

    FOODY: A rubric for how to grade. If the poem evokes this idea that is inevitably going to come up in this prompt or is a characteristic of a really good response, we’ll reward the model a certain amount. If it says this thing, we’ll penalize the model. If it styles the response in this way, we’ll reward it. Those are the types of things, in many ways, very similar to the way that a professor might create a rubric to grade an essay or a poem.

    Poetry is definitely a more difficult one because I feel like it’s very unbounded. With a lot of essays that you might grade from your students, it’s a relatively well-scoped prompt where you can probably create a rubric that’s easy to apply to all of them, versus I can only imagine in poetry classes how difficult it is to both create an accurate rubric as well as apply it. The people that are able to do that the best are certainly extremely valuable and exciting.

    COWEN: To get all nerdy here, Immanuel Kant in his third critique, Critique of Judgment, said, in essence, taste is that which cannot be captured in a rubric. If the data you want is a rubric and taste is really important, maybe Kant was wrong, but how do I square that whole picture? Is it, by invoking taste, you’re being circular and wishing for a free lunch that comes from outside the model, in a sense?

    FOODY: There are other kinds of data they could do if it can’t be captured in a rubric. Another kind is RLHF, where you could have the model generate two responses similar to what you might see in ChatGPT, and then have these people with a lot of taste choose which response they prefer, and do that many times until the model is able to understand their preferences. That could be one way of going about it as well.

    Interesting throughout, and definitely recommended.  Note the conversation was recorded in October (we have had a long queue), so a few parts of it sound slightly out of date.  And here is Hollis Robbins on LLMs and poetry.

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    What Healthcare Training Programs Are Available at FVI’s Miami Campus?

    The healthcare field continues to grow quickly, and many people are looking for trusted training programs that help them get into a stable career. In Miami, healthcare employers are hiring more nurses and medical assistants, and the demand continues to grow. FVI School of Nursing offers hands-on education that prepares students for the real world. The programs at their Miami campus are designed with flexibility and career readiness in mind. Students learn from experienced instructors who understand what today’s employers are looking for. The FVI nursing program gives students the tools they need to start strong in a healthcare career. At the Miami campus, students find a focused learning environment that supports both personal and professional growth. The school’s training programs are aligned with industry needs and designed to prepare students for licensure and employment.

    Practical Nursing Program

    One of the most popular training programs at FVI’s Miami campus is the Practical Nursing program. This program is a good fit for students who want to become Licensed Practical Nurses. It provides students with the clinical skills and classroom knowledge needed to care for patients. The curriculum covers important subjects like medical-surgical nursing, pediatric care, and pharmacology. Students also gain experience through clinical practice in real healthcare settings. This helps them build confidence and learn how to work as part of a medical team.

    Medical Assistant Program

    Another strong option at the Miami campus is the Medical Assistant program. This program trains students in both administrative and clinical tasks. Students learn how to schedule appointments, take vital signs, and assist with exams. The program focuses on building skills that can be used in doctors’ offices, clinics, and urgent care centers. Students finish the program ready to sit for national certification exams. It’s a great starting point for those who want to enter the medical field quickly.

    Patient Care Technician Program

    FVI offers a Patient Care Technician program for individuals seeking to care for patients in hospitals or nursing homes. This program teaches skills such as helping patients with daily tasks, drawing blood, and checking vital signs. The hands-on training prepares students for real-world work in a short amount of time. Instructors guide students through both classroom learning and clinical practice. Graduates are ready to take certification exams and apply for jobs right away. This program offers a direct path to employment in a growing field.

    Focused Support and Career Services

    The Miami campus is not just about classes. FVI puts a strong focus on student support and career development. Students get career support throughout the program, including resume help, interview practice, and job search guidance. The school also has strong relationships with local healthcare employers, which opens doors for internships and job interviews. This support helps students feel more confident when stepping into the workforce. The school’s goal is to see every student succeed in their chosen field.

    Flexible Schedules and Hands-On Learning

    FVI understands that many students need to balance school with work or family. That’s why the Miami campus offers both day and evening classes. Programs are designed to be completed in under two years, depending on the course. Each program blends classroom education with hands-on experience. Students have access to modern labs and equipment to practice their skills. This balanced approach helps students feel prepared and ready to work in a fast-paced healthcare environment.

    Healthcare training at FVI’s Miami campus gives students more than just a certificate or diploma. It offers them a real chance at a better future through education that leads directly to employment. With programs in practical nursing, medical assisting, and patient care, students can choose the path that fits their goals. Each course is built to give the right mix of knowledge and hands-on training. Support from the staff and career services team helps make the journey smoother. This is a place where students can learn, grow, and move forward into a rewarding healthcare career.

    Photo: Freepik via their website.


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    NASA considers evacuating ailing crew member from International Space Station

    Someone on the International Space Station suffered an unspecified "medical situation" Wednesday, prompting the postponement of a planned spacewalk and raising the possibility of an early return for a portion of the lab's seven-person crew, NASA said in a statement.

    NASA has never ordered a medical evacuation from space before, but the option has always been available at the International Space Station with lifeboats ready for activation.

    The space agency announced the spacewalk postponement Wednesday afternoon due to a "medical concern" with a member of the space station's crew. NASA officials declined to identify the crew member or release further details about their condition, citing medical privacy restrictions.

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    Still Buying New Stretchers? Here’s Why Refurbishing Is the Smarter Choice

    In today’s healthcare environment, every purchasing decision matters. Stretchers are used daily across hospitals, surgical centers, and emergency departments, yet many facilities still default to buying new units when replacements are needed. At the same time, new stretchers may seem like the safest choice, but refurbished stretchers are increasingly proving to be the more practical, cost-effective, and reliable option. When refurbished professionally, these units deliver the same performance standards while offering meaningful financial and operational advantages that modern healthcare facilities cannot ignore.

    Lower Costs Without Sacrificing Quality

    One of the most compelling reasons to choose refurbished stretchers is cost efficiency. New stretchers often come with high upfront costs that quickly add up when multiple units are required. Refurbished stretchers, by contrast, provide significant savings while maintaining the same essential functionality. During refurbishment, worn components are replaced, mechanical systems are recalibrated, and surfaces are restored to meet strict healthcare requirements. What many decision-makers overlook is that stretchers are engineered for long service lives. The core frame and structure are built to withstand years of use, making them ideal candidates for refurbishment. By restoring what already works and upgrading what does not, facilities gain dependable equipment without paying a premium for brand-new models that offer little additional value in daily use.

    Reliable Performance That Meets Clinical Demands

    Refurbished does not mean outdated or unreliable. Professionally refurbished stretchers go through detailed inspections and performance testing to ensure they function safely in demanding clinical environments. Wheels, brakes, hydraulic systems, and patient support surfaces are all addressed to guarantee smooth operation and stability. For staff, this reliability translates into better workflow and fewer disruptions. Familiar stretcher designs reduce the learning curve, enabling nurses and technicians to work efficiently without having to adapt to unfamiliar equipment. For patients, refurbished stretchers provide the same comfort, support, and safety they would expect from new units, reinforcing trust in the care environment.

    Sustainability and Faster Availability

    Sustainability has become a growing priority in healthcare, and refurbished stretchers support this goal by extending the lifecycle of existing equipment. Choosing refurbishment reduces waste, conserves raw materials, and lowers the environmental impact associated with manufacturing and transporting new products. This approach aligns with responsible healthcare practices while still meeting operational needs. Another key advantage is availability. New stretchers often involve long lead times due to manufacturing schedules and supply chain delays. Refurbished stretchers are typically available much faster, helping facilities respond quickly to growth, equipment shortages, or unexpected increases in patient volume. Faster access means less downtime and better continuity of care.

    Still buying new stretchers simply because it has always been done that way can lead to unnecessary costs and missed opportunities. Refurbished stretchers provide a smarter, more strategic solution by delivering reliable performance, supporting sustainability goals, and preserving valuable healthcare budgets without compromising patient comfort or staff efficiency. As facilities continue to look for ways to operate more responsibly and efficiently, refurbishment stands out as a practical choice that aligns with modern healthcare demands. For organizations ready to rethink their equipment strategy and maximize long-term value, visit CeviMed for trusted refurbished medical solutions.

    Photo: Martha Dominguez de Gouveia via Unsplash.


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    FCC gives SpaceX “green light” to expand Starlink constellation to 15,000 satellites

    SpaceX launches its Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Jan. 9, 2025, on the Starlink 6-96 mission. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

    Update Jan. 9, 6:14 p.m. EST (2214 UTC): SpaceX confirms satellite deployment. Adding FCC announcement details.

    The Federal Communications Commission granted SpaceX the ability to expand its Starlink constellation in low Earth orbit to a total of up to 15,000 satellites.

    The announcement Friday evening from the FCC came less than an hour after SpaceX launched its latest batch of Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

    “This FCC authorization is a game-changer for enabling next-generation services,” said FCC Chairman Brendan Carr in a statement. “By authorizing 15,000 new and advanced satellites, the FCC has given SpaceX the green light to deliver unprecedented satellite broadband capabilities, strengthen competition, and help ensure that no community is left behind.”

    SpaceX’s Falcon 9 lifted off from Space Launch Complex 40 at 4:41 p.m. EST (2141 UTC) with the rocket flying on a south-easterly trajectory after flying away from the pad.

    SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 booster with the tail number 1069. This was its 29th flight after launching missions, like CRS-24, Eutelsat Hotbird 13F and 24 batches of Starlink satellites.

    Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1069 landed on the drone ship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas,’ positioned in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of The Bahamas. This was the 138th landing on this vessel and the 556th booster landing for SpaceX to date.

    A little more than an hour after liftoff, the 29 Starlink satellites deployed into orbit. According to astronomer and expert orbital tracker Jonathan McDowell, there were more than 9,400 Starlink satellites in orbit as of Jan. 5.

    SpaceX launches its Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Jan. 9, 2025, on the Starlink 6-96 mission. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

    The FCC’s move to allow SpaceX to launch an additional 7,500 of its Starlink V2 satellites allows the company to make additional changes, like adding giving them the latitude to make new design changes and adding new orbital shells from 340 km to 485 km.

    SpaceX’s vice president of Starlink Engineering Michael Nicolls said last week that the company planned to lower about 4,400 satellites currently orbiting at about 550 km down to roughly 480 km, though he didn’t provide a timeline for the shift.

    “Lowering the satellites results in condensing Starlink orbits, and will increase space safety in several ways,” he said in a social media post. “As solar minimum approaches, atmospheric density decreases which means the ballistic decay time at any given altitude increases – lowering will mean a >80% reduction in ballistic decay time in solar minimum, or 4+ years reduced to a few months.

    “Correspondingly, the number of debris objects and planned satellite constellations is significantly lower below 500 km, reducing the aggregate likelihood of collision.”

    SpaceX launches its Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Jan. 9, 2025, on the Starlink 6-96 mission. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

    Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims

    Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

    Thursday:
    • At 8:30 A ET, Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September.

    • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 205K, up from 199K.

    A cold-blooded ICE murder in Minneapolis

    From the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

    I usually don’t write midday posts, but this one feels necessary.

    In case you have yet to see this, earlier today a Minneapolis-based ICE agent fired into a moving vehicle and killed the driver. A 37-year-old American woman named Renee Nicole Good.

    Wait, I’m going to adjust that sentence—murdered the driver. A 37-year-old American woman named Renee Nicole Good.

    Wednesday is Day 2 of a planned monthlong ICE surge in Minneapolis, land of snow and ice and Joe Mauer and, according to the current White House, far too many Brown people. So ICE has arrived to save us, or save white folks, or punish a Democratic city in a Democratic state, and that means bringing in unidentified masked agents to terrorize as many humans as possible. Thanks to this Nazi-like movement … thanks to a street stoppage … thanks to an overzealous triggerman … thanks to a president who cares about a single human life (his) … thanks to a modern GOP that kneels before its God … thanks to a nation more interested in the Kardashians than democracy … thanks to a general unawareness of the poetitive nature of world history … a nation is under authoritarian rule, a lovely city is under siege and Renee Nicole Good’s life has ceased.

    And, in normal times, we’d have accountability. Of course we’d have accountability. The president would make a statement bemoaning the loss and promising to fully investigate. He would fly in tomorrow, meet with the governor and mayor, talk things through.

    But not now.

    No. Not now.

    Now, we have Kristi Noem (dressed as Cowgirl Barbi, no less) saying this …

    And we have Donald Trump posting this …

    And we have Newsmax reporting it this way …

    And we have Minnesota’s leading Republican gubernatorial candidate stating this …

    And, truly, we have a choice to make. I don’t mean we, everyone. I mean, we—us. What are we going to do? How quiet and pliant will we remain? How willing are we to set aside the TikTok videos, set aside the TV and stand up? And fight?

    How comfortable are we with the demise of the dream? Of the ideals of Washington and Jefferson, of FDR and Kennedy, of MLK and Susan B. Anthony, of your parents and your grandparents … how comfortable are we with all of that collapsing?

    How comfortable are you?

    The Molly Cantillon manifesto, A Personal Panopticon

    I find this piece significant, and think it is likely to be one of the most important essays of the year:

    A few months ago, I started running my life out of Claude Code. Not out of intention to do so, it was just the place where everything met. And it just kept working. Empires are won by conquest. What keeps them standing is something much quieter. Before a king can tax, he must count. Before he can conscript, he must locate. Before he can rule, he must see. Legibility is the precondition for governance…

    The first thing Claude solved was product blindness. NOX now runs on a cron job: pulling Amplitude, cross-referencing GitHub, and pointing me to what needs building. It handles A/B testing, generates winning copy, and has turned customer support into a fully autonomous department.

    Once I saw this was possible, I chased it everywhere. Email, hitting inbox zero for the first time ever, with auto-drafted replies for everything inbound. Workouts, accommodating horrendously erratic travel schedules. Sleep, built a projector wired to my WHOOP after exactly six hours that wakes me with my favorite phrases. Subscriptions, found and returned $2000 I didn’t know I was paying. The dozen SFMTA citations I’d ignored, the action items I’d procrastinated into oblivion. People are using it to, I discovered, run vending machines, home automation systems, and keep plants alive.

    The feeling is hard to name. It is the violent gap between how blind you were and how obvious everything feels now with an observer that reads all the feeds, catches what you’ve unconsciously dropped, notices patterns across domains you’d kept stubbornly separate, and—crucially—tells you what to do about it.

    My personal finances are now managed in the terminal. Overnight it picks the locks of brokerages that refuse to talk to each other, pulls congressional and hedge fund disclosures, Polymarket odds, X sentiment, headlines and 10-Ks from my watchlist. Every morning, a brief gets added in ~/𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜. Last month it flagged Rep. Fields buying NFLX shares. Three weeks later, the Warner Bros deal. I don’t always trade, sometimes I argue with the thesis. But I’m never tracking fifteen tabs at 6am anymore.

    It feels borderline unfair seeing around corners, being in ten places at once, surveilling yourself with the attention span of a thousand clones.

    A panopticon still, but the tower belongs to you.

    There is more at the link, or this link, and yes she is related to the 18th century Irish economist Richard Cantillon.

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    NASA weighs an earlier end to the Crew-11 mission after a ‘medical situation’ with an ISS crew member postpones first spacewalk of 2026

    At center, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut and Expedition 74 Flight Engineer Kimiya Yui assists NASA astronauts Zena Cardman (left) and Mike Fincke (right), the station’s flight engineer and commander respectively, during spacesuit checks inside the International Space Station’s Quest airlock. Image: NASA

    Update Jan. 8, 12:30 a.m. EST (0530 UTC): Adding new statement from NASA.

    Update Jan. 7, 9:30 p.m. EST (0230 UTC): Added information about the ISS livestreams being taken offline.

    NASA is weighing whether it may need to call for an earlier end the SpaceX Crew-11 mission on the International Space Station after a “medical situation” occurred on Wednesday.

    The initial revelation, which was first described by the agency as a “medical concern,” caused NASA to announce on Wednesday evening that it was postponing the first spacewalk of 2026 from the ISS. Two NASA astronauts had been scheduled to venture outside the station on Thursday morning.

    “Safely conducting our missions is our highest priority, and we are actively evaluating all options, including the possibility of an earlier end to Crew-11’s mission,” NASA said shortly after midnight on Thursday. “These are the situations NASA and our partners train for and prepare to execute safely. We will provide further updates within the next 24 hours.”

    The next planned flight to the ISS is the SpaceX Crew-12 mission, which is currently slated to launch no earlier than Feb. 15, 2026. It’s unclear if NASA would try to work with SpaceX and the other international partners and move up the launch of that Dragon spacecraft or even how much latitude would be available at this point in time.

    The overnight statement came several hours after NASA first announced the medical issue with an ISS crew member. NASA said that the issue involves a “single crew member who is stable,” but as per typical policy, it didn’t disclose further details or the identity of the crew member.

    NASA said it would share additional details, including a new date for the spacewalk at a later time. Roughly an hour before making its initial announcement, the agency also took offline its two ISS live feeds, which include air to ground communications audio.

    Astronauts Mike Fincke and Zena Cardman were to have spent about 6.5 hours outside the space station on a roughly 6.5 hour extravehicular activity (EVA), designated U.S. spacewalk 94. Fincke was to become just the sixth U.S. astronaut to perform a total of 10 spacewalks.

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) astronaut Kimiya Yui and NASA astronaut Chris Williams were to help get Fincke and Cardman into their space suits.

    During a briefing on Tuesday, NASA officials outlined the upcoming work for this and another EVA, U.S. spacewalk 95. For this first outing, Fincke and Cardman were to prepare the station’s 2A power channel for the future installation of the final pair of ISS Roll-Out Solar Arrays (iROSAs), scheduled for launch to the station sometime in 2026.

    “Once this mod kit is complete, we have one more to do. So we’ll look at —- we’re looking for a a time, maybe in the spring, but we’re not exactly sure yet where that’s going to fit to finish the last mod kit,” said Bill Spetch, operations integration manager for NASA’s ISS Program. “It is on orbit, waiting to be installed. We just have to go out there and install it. And then we’ll bring up the two remaining iROSAs together. They fly in a configuration that stacks together in one Dragon trunk.”

    Before returning to the Quest airlock, the duo were to swab five locations around the airlock for a study designed to detect the presence of microorganisms.

    “Previously, we had sampled some other vent locations. They’re looking for locations that are nearby, where we have traffic and atmosphere leaving the ISS and looking in those areas,” Spetch said.

    NASA astronaut and Expedition 74 Flight Engineer Zena Cardman is pictured in her pressurized spacesuit, checking its communication and power systems ahead of a spacewalk initially planned for Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. At upper right, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut and Flight Engineer Kimiya Yui assists Cardman as she tests the operations of her spacesuit inside the International Space Station’s Quest airlock. Image: NASA

    U.S. spacewalk 95 will see two NASA astronauts (who haven’t been publicly named) replace a high-definition camera near port 3; install a new navigational aid called a planar reflector on the Harmony module’s forward port; and finally, relocate an ammonia service jumper, along with other jumpers, which are flexible hoses that connect parts of a fluid system on the ISS’ S4 and S6 truss.

    “The jumpers that we’re doing have been ‘get ahead’ tasks for a long time. They add redundancy to our system so that we can recover activities quicker across our primary power system,” Spetch said. “Each channel is kind of separate in how it operates and these allow us to cross-tie some of the systems within those channels to keep them operating.

    “In case of failure cases, it’s obviously more desired in a case where, once I get to the point where ISS has been de-crewed for the final deorbit, but it still helps us out today.”

    EVA 95 was scheduled for Jan. 15, a day before NASA aims to have a SpaceX Cargo Dragon spacecraft perform its last scheduled boost of the station, part of work to prepare for the station’s end of life in about five years.

    That Dragon spacecraft, which launched on the CRS-33 mission on Aug. 24, 2025, is slated to undock from the ISS on Jan. 21, followed by the unberthing of Japan’s HTV-X cargo vehicle on Jan. 27 and release on Jan. 28. With the spacewalk delay, it’s now unclear if NASA will have time to perform one or both of the spacewalks before those vehicles need to depart.

    And if Crew-11 does indeed end earlier than originally planned, it may necessitate additional station schedule shifts, including EVA 94 and EVA 95.

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