Magic staircase
Staircase technology is moving fast:
Staircase technology is moving fast:
I wasn’t going to do this.
Then I realized: if you’ve been reading along & thinking “yeah, maybe I should pay for this,” Black Friday is probably when you’re thinking about it. So.
$180/year annual plan through December 1st.
Normally $250.
My mission is to help geeks feel safe in the world. Right now that means figuring out what safety looks like when the machines can code.
I don’t have answers yet. I have a lot of questions & I’m working through them in public. Paid subscribers get to watch that happen & shape it:
Chat is where the real work happens. You bring a problem. I try to help. Sometimes I can. Sometimes I learn something I wouldn’t have noticed on my own.
Essays go out early to paid folks. Messy thinking about responsibility, coherence, what changes when speed increases by 10x. These pieces aren’t polished. That’s the point.
Weekly Thinkies. Habits of creative thought. I used to think I was just “creative.” Turns out most of my ideas come from identifiable thinking patterns. I’m teaching those.
People who show up in Chat ask real questions & admit when they’re stuck. That’s where the good conversations happen.
This is the lowest I’ll go on annual pricing. If something here has helped you think differently about your work, come join us.
Using textual analysis of 173,031 works printed in England between 1500 and 1900, we test whether British culture evolved to manifest a heightened belief in progress associated with science and industry. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, there was a separation in the language of science and religion beginning in the 17th century. Second, scientific volumes became more progress-oriented during the Enlightenment. Third, industrial works—especially those at the science-political economy nexus—were more progress-oriented beginning in the 17th century. It was therefore the more pragmatic, industrial works which reflected the cultural values cited as important for Britain’s takeoff.
That is from a paper by Ali Almelhem, Murat Iyigun, Austin Kennedy, and Jared Rubin. Now forthcoming at the QJE.
The post Enlightenment ideas and the belief in progress leading up to the Industrial Revolution appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at the ship failure that caused the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, the boring part of Bell Labs, a more efficient way of making antimatter, underground nuclear reactors, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.
I normally think of extreme sensitivity to small failures as a property of very high performance engineered objects – things like a jet engine catastrophically failing due to a pipe wall being a few fractions of a millimeter too thin. But other complex engineered systems can also be susceptible to the right (or wrong) sort of very small failure. The National Transportation Safety Board has a report out on what caused the MV Dali containership to lose power and crash into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore in 2024. The culprit? The label on a single wire in slightly the wrong position, which prevented the wire from being firmly connected. When the wire came loose, the ship lost power. Via the NTSB:
At Tuesday’s public meeting at NTSB headquarters, investigators said the loose wire in the ship’s electrical system caused a breaker to unexpectedly open -- beginning a sequence of events that led to two vessel blackouts and a loss of both propulsion and steering near the 2.37-mile-long Key Bridge on March 26, 2024. Investigators found that wire-label banding prevented the wire from being fully inserted into a terminal block spring-clamp gate, causing an inadequate connection.
The NTSB also has a video on its Youtube channel showing exactly what went wrong with the wire.
Apple has an interesting piece on their use of 3D printing for their titanium-bodied watches. It’s typically rare to use 3D printing for large-volume production, due to its higher unit costs compared to other fabrication technologies. Apple seems to be using 3D printing on its watch bodies for two reasons: one is that because 3D printing is additive rather than subtractive (machining down a titanium forging), there’s less material waste, which they consider beneficial for decarbonization reasons. The other is that 3D printing makes it possible to fabricate part geometries that wouldn’t be possible using other fabrication methods.
Apple 2030 is the company’s ambitious goal to be carbon neutral across its entire footprint by the end of this decade, which includes the manufacturing supply chain and lifetime use of its products. Already, all of the electricity used to manufacture Apple Watch comes from renewable energy sources like wind and solar.
Using the additive process of 3D printing, layer after layer gets printed until an object is as close to the final shape needed as possible. Historically, machining forged parts is subtractive, requiring large portions of material to be shaved off. This shift enables Ultra 3 and titanium cases of Series 11 to use just half the raw material compared to their previous generations.
“A 50 percent drop is a massive achievement — you’re getting two watches out of the same amount of material used for one,” Chandler explains. “When you start mapping that back, the savings to the planet are tremendous.”
In total, Apple estimates more than 400 metric tons of raw titanium will be saved this year alone thanks to this new process.
Bell Labs, as I’ve noted several times, is famous for the number of world-changing inventions and scientific discoveries it generated over its history. It’s the birthplace of the transistor, the solar PV cell, and information theory, and it has accumulated more Nobel Prizes than any other industrial research lab. But the scientific breakthroughs and world-changing inventions were a small part of what Bell Labs did. Most people that worked there were engaged in the more prosaic work of making the telephone system work better and more efficiently. Elizabeth Van Nostrand has an interesting interview with her father, who worked in this “boring” part of Bell Labs:
Most calls went through automatically e.g. if you knew the number. But some would need an operator. Naturally, the companies didn’t want to hire more operators than they needed to. The operating company would do load measurements and, if the number of calls that needed an operator followed a Poisson distribution (so the inter-arrival times were exponential).
The length of time an operator took to service the call followed an exponential distribution. In theory, one could use queuing theory to get an analytical answer to how many operators you needed to provide to get reasonable service. However, there was some feeling that real phone traffic had rare but lengthy tasks (the company’s president wanted the operator to call around a number of shops to find his wife so he could make plans for dinner (this is 1970)) that would be added on top of the regular Poisson/exponential traffic and these special calls might significantly degrade overall operator service.
I turned this into my Master’s thesis. Using a simulation package called GPSS (General Purpose Simulation System, which I was pleasantly surprised to find still exists) I ran simulations for a number of phone lines and added different numbers of rare phone calls that called for considerable amounts of operator time. What we found was that occasional high-demand tasks did not disrupt the system and did not need to be planned for.
Transit timelines is a very cool website that has transit system maps for over 300 different cities, going back to the 19th century. For each city you can step through time in five year increments to look at the extent of the transit system, and compare the transit systems of multiple cities for a given period of time.
David Yang, 14, Vancouver, robotics.
Alex Araki, London, to improve clinical trials.
Ivan Skripnik, Moldova/LA, physics and the nature of space.
Mihai Codreanu, Stanford economics Ph.D, industrial parks and the origins of innovation.
Salvador Duarte, Lisbon/Nebraska, 17, podcast in economics and philosophy.
Aras Zirgulis, Vilnius, short economics videos.
Ava McGurk, 17, Belfast, therapy and other services company and general career support.
Anusha Agarwal, Thomas Jefferson High School, NoVa, space/Orbitum.
Cohen Pert, 16, Sewanee, Georgia, running several businesses.
Jin Wang, University of Arizona, Economics Ph.D, AI and the history of Chinese economic growth.
Janelle Yapp, high school senior, KL Malaysia, general career support.
Justin Kuiper, Bay Area, Progress Studies ideas for video.
Mariia ]Masha] Baidachna, Glasgow/Ukraine, quantum computing.
Beatriz Gietner, Dublin, Substack on econometrics.
Roman Lopatynskyi, Kiev, romantic piano music.
The post Emergent Ventures winners, 49th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

SpaceX launched a brand new Falcon 9 booster on a mission from California to deploy another batch of satellites for the company’s Starlink internet service.
Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, occurred at 12:48 a.m. PST (3:48 a.m. EST / 0848 UTC). It was the first flight of Falcon 9 first stage B1100, the eighth new booster to join the SpaceX fleet this year.
The Falcon 9 took a south-easterly trajectory on departure from Vandenberg, following the coast of California, as it targeted an orbit inclined at 53 degrees to the Equator. B1100 successfully touched down on the drone ship ‘Of Course I Still Love You’ about eight and half minutes into the flight.
Deployment of the 28 satellites from the rocket’s second stage was expected one hour into flight. This is the 110th Starlink delivery flight of the year. SpaceX announced earlier this month it now has 8 million customers for the Starlink service.
Paul McCartney is releasing a new track. It’s his first new song in five years—so that’s a big deal. But there’s something even more significant about this 2 minute 45 second release.
The song is silent. It’s a totally blank track—except for a bit of hiss and background noise.
What’s going on? Has Paul McCartney run out of melodies at age 83? Is he nurturing his inner John Cage. Did he simply forget to turn on the mic?
No, none of the above.
Macca is releasing this track as a protest against AI.
His new ‘music’ is part of an album entitled Is This What We Want? It’s already available on digital platforms, and is now coming out on vinyl. All proceeds will go to the non-profit organization Help Musicians.
“The album consists of recordings of empty studios and performance spaces,” according to the website. In addition to McCartney, more than a thousand musicians are participating, including:
Kate Bush, Annie Lennox, Damon Albarn, Billy Ocean, Ed O’Brien, Dan Smith, The Clash, Mystery Jets, Jamiroquai, Imogen Heap, Yusuf / Cat Stevens, Riz Ahmed, Tori Amos, Hans Zimmer, James MacMillan, Max Richter, John Rutter, The Kanneh-Masons, The King’s Singers, The Sixteen, Roderick Williams, Sarah Connolly, Nicky Spence, Ian Bostridge, and many more.
I keep hearing that protest music is dead—and has been losing momentum since the Vietnam War. But there’s now a new war, and it’s stirring up creators in every artistic idiom.
They are fighting for their livelihoods and IP rights. And, so far, it’s been a losing battle.
You can see the new battle lines across the entire creative landscape.
Vince Gilligan, one of the most brilliant minds in TV, admits that he “hates AI.” He calls it the “world’s most expensive plagiarism machine.” For his new show Pluribus, he has added this disclaimer to the credits:
This show was made by humans.
AI represents the exact opposite of creativity, Gilligan warns. It steals the work of others. So any attempt to legitimize it as a creative tool is built on lies. A bank robber might just as well pretend to be a financier. Or an art forger claim to be Picasso.
Filmmakers are reaching the same conclusion.
Oscar-winning director Guillermo del Toro says he would “rather die” than use AI in his movies. You might even view his latest film Frankenstein as a pointed attack on technology gone wild. He describes Dr. Frankenstein as
similar in some ways to the tech bros. He’s kind of blind, creating something without considering the consequences.
But here’s where things start to get really creepy. The headline above comes from Variety, a leading voice for the entertainment industry. But the new publisher for Variety is a huge fan of AI—and sees it as essential to the future of the periodical.
It’s worth noting that this publisher started her career at Variety by selling ads, not writing. And that gives you a clear sense of the people on the other side of the battle field.
The people who have built careers on their creativity are now mobilizing. But the overseers who prioritize finance and profits will fight them at every turn. You might think that these two parties need each other—but that’s not how the bosses see it.
They love AI because it will reduce their dependence on human artists—who are often stubborn difficult people. Even worse, great artists are expensive people, so the suits inside the boardroom dream of replacing them with servile bots.
Very few of the bosses will say this openly. They can’t afford to stir up their creative workers—not yet. It’s too early and AI tech isn’t robust enough to replace all those folks in the cast and crew. But if you don’t think this is the plan, you don’t know how the people in those expensive boardroom chairs think and act.
Just take a look at the new AI “talent studio” Xicoa. A few weeks ago, it introduced an AI actress named Tilly Norwood. She’s a sweet brunette who looks like the girl next door—provided that you live inside a simulation.
The creative community was disgusted by this. But movie studios and agents reached out to the company, eager to explore ways of working together. In the aftermath, Xicoa announced that it is developing another 40 AI-generated actors.
According to one inside source, all the studios and major film companies are looking at AI projects. But everything is top secret, wrapped up in non-disclosure agreements—so we can only guess at the details. But the threat is clearly escalating at a rapid pace.
We see the exact same thing in music. Big records labels complained about AI—until they got a cut of the action.
So Warner Bros had a strong copyright infringement case against an AI music company—but then decided to reach a settlement.
Universal Music did the exact same thing.
Sony is also cutting AI music deals.
I believe that the music industry could put AI companies out of business—the robbery of IP is so severe that this could be Napster all over again. Flesh-and-blood musicians would be protected, and real creativity could flourish.
But the bosses don’t want that. They will sell out the musicians—just so long as they make some money in the transaction.
And the exact same thing is happening in publishing.
Let me repeat: AI companies could be stopped simply by prosecuting them for violating copyrights. Why isn’t this happening?
Who wants to hear a bot sing of love it has never experienced? Who wants a painting made by something with no eyes to see?
The answer is simple—and sad.
Instead of protecting artist rights, the big companies in the culture sphere are seeking collaboration and quick settlements. Creators absolutely need to understand this. It’s not clear that they can trust their own labels or publishers—or maybe not even their own lawyers.
This is the new culture war.
And it’s very different from the old culture war—which was a dim reflection of politics. This new battle is happening inside the culture world itself, and threatens to cut off artists from their own longstanding partners and support systems.
This new culture war will only escalate. The stakes are too high, and artists can’t afford to stay on the sidelines. But they face heavy odds, with the richest people on the planet opposed to their efforts.
How will this battle get decided? It really comes down to the audience. If they prefer AI slop, we will witness the total degradation of arts and entertainment.
I’d like to think that people are too smart to fall for this crude simulation of human creative expression. Who wants to hear a bot sing of love it has never experienced? Who wants a nature poem from a digital construct that exists outside of nature? Who wants a painting made by something with no eyes to see?
Will the public find this charming. Or even plausible? Maybe a few twelve year olds and fools, but not serious people. That’s my hunch.
In any event, we will soon find out.
This morning, from some difference between my wife and Sarah, her maid, my wife and I fell out cruelly, to my great discontent. But I do see her set so against the wench, whom I take to be a most extraordinary good servant, that I was forced for the wench’s sake to bid her get her another place, which shall cost some trouble to my wife, however, before I suffer to be.
Thence to the office, where I sat all the morning, then dined; Mr. Moore with me, at home, my wife busy putting her furniture in order. Then he and I out, and he home and I to my cozen Roger Pepys to advise about treating with my uncle Thomas, and thence called at the Wardrobe on Mr. Moore again, and so home, and after doing much business at my office I went home and caused a new fashion knocker to be put on my door, and did other things to the putting my house in order, and getting my outward door painted, and the arch.
This day I bought the book of country dances against my wife’s woman Gosnell comes, who dances finely; and there meeting Mr. Playford he did give me his Latin songs of Mr. Deering’s, which he lately printed.
This day Mr. Moore told me that for certain the Queen-Mother is married to my Lord St. Albans, and he is like to be made Lord Treasurer.
Newes that Sir J. Lawson hath made up a peace now with Tunis and Tripoli, as well as Argiers, by which he will come home very highly honoured.
I didn’t do an interview this past week, so this seems like a good day to post myself being interviewed. I don’t know anything about the world of YouTubers — I restrict my viewing to music and history — but people who do know it were enthusiastic about Minhaj, a comedian with 2 million subscribers. And I think it was a pretty good interview!
Links for you. Science:
Amazon lakes hit ‘unbearable’ hot-tub temperatures amid mass die-offs of pink river dolphins
Wielding Obscure Budget Tools, Trump’s ‘Reaper’ Vought Sows Turmoil in Public Health
Working Under RFK Jr. at the CDC Is a Living Hell
Woodpeckers Use Tennis Player ‘Grunting’ Trick To Drill Trees
Fears for elephant seals as bird flu kills half of population in South Atlantic
Integrative phylogenomics positions sponges at the root of the animal tree
Other:
The Status Interview – Or How To Write Up a Senate Purge List
The Shutdown Is Over. But for Federal Workers, the Anxiety Persists.
Democrats Are Teaching Trump the Wrong Lesson
The Compassion Trap: How the Shutdown Weaponized Democratic Values Against Democracy Itself. When Opposition Parties Stop Fighting Because the Cruelty Becomes Unbearable. And Why They Shouldn’t.
Epstein Alleged in Emails That Trump Knew of His Conduct
Once Again, Senate Democrats Show They Don’t Get Who They Represent
This DOGE Whistleblower Is Running for Office
They’re Not Hiding It and It’s Not Irony
Federal jury awards $112M to immigrants detained by Suffolk for ICE
Cue the rebellion: The Democratic base is enraged at their party’s capitulation — and that’s a good thing.
Did Democrats Win the Shutdown After All?
The Left Must Build Its Infrastructure
Why Elon Musk Needs Dungeons and Dragons to Be Racist
Every generation gets to recreate the environmental movement to suit its own purposes. Some big-picture reactions to a recent NYT piece
But What Did They Win
Paramount sees hundreds quit over return-to-office order
Happy Exploding Whale Day! (America is already great!)
Epstein Was Tipped Off About Journalist Digging Into Him by Then-NY Times Reporter: ‘I Told Him You Were One Hell of a Guy’
The Democratic Shutdown Capitulation: A Perfect and Unnecessary Failure
Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend Payments Would Explode the Deficit by Nearly $4 Trillion Over a Decade
Video shows immigration arrest in Southeast amid questions about DC police cooperation
The MAGA Revolution Is Eating Its Own
Did Schumer cave to protect the filibuster?
Mamdani the Party Builder: Partyism in action
Andrew Cuomo Photographed Kissing and Grabbing Lawyer Who Defended Him From Sexual Harassment Accusations
AI-Generated Videos of ICE Raids Are Wildly Viral on Facebook
Graham Platner’s online history means he’d lose to Susan Collins, Dem poll warns
War Is Peace. Freedom Is Slavery. Grocery Prices Are Way Down.
Committee To Save The World
Megyn Kelly questions whether Jeffrey Epstein’s desire for “very young teen types” made him a pedophile (she has a fourteen year old daughter)
Fullerton police stop man pointing gun at female driver, only to learn he is ICE agent
Why Democrats won the government shutdown
D.C. is slowing e-bikes down, citing teen crime and speeding issues

The first booster in the new generation of Starship vehicles suffered significant damage during a Nov. 21 test, adding to doubts about the vehicle’s development schedule.
The post First next-generation Starship booster damaged in testing appeared first on SpaceNews.

The company is pitching Blue Ring as a workhorse for military missions that demand aggressive maneuvering in orbit
The post Blue Origin advances Blue Ring spacecraft toward 2026 national security mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Europe must move quickly to craft a large-scale strategy for space-based data centers or risk ceding a potential pillar of future digital infrastructure to global competitors, according to the European Space Policy Institute.
The post Think tank urges Europe to scale up space-based data center efforts appeared first on SpaceNews.

WARSAW, Poland — Finnish SAR constellation operator Iceye and Japan’s aerospace and defense company IHI Corporation recently signed a deal to develop an Earth observation satellite constellation for security, civilian and commercial use. Under the latest deal, IHI Corporation ordered four satellites and an associated image acquisition system from Iceye, with the option to purchase […]
The post Finland’s Iceye secures Japanese contract as it advances international expansion, new satellite ranges appeared first on SpaceNews.
Luke Igel and Riley Walz made a phony Gmail interface that, rather than showing you your email, shows you Jeffrey Epstein’s emails:
You’re logged in as Jeffrey Epstein. We compiled these Epstein estate emails from the House Oversight release by converting the PDFs to structured text with an LLM.
Brilliant.
Apple Store:
The Hikawa Phone Grip & Stand is a MagSafe compatible adaptive accessory for iPhone designed by Bailey Hikawa to celebrate the 40th anniversary of accessibility at Apple. Designed with direct input from individuals with disabilities affecting muscle strength, dexterity, and hand control, this ergonomic grip was designed with accessibility in mind from the ground up. The grip uses magnets to securely snap onto any iPhone with MagSafe, can be removed with ease, and doubles as a stand to support iPhone at two different viewing angles, both vertically and horizontally. Inspired by modern sculpture, each Hikawa product is an art object unto itself. The limited edition Hikawa Phone Grip & Stand is available in two colors, a bold, high-visibility Chartreuse and recycled Crater, exclusive to Apple.
Looks like a perfectly cromulent accessory, but Chartreuse and Crater are both a bit out there — in different ways — to be the only two color options. Or, I should say, were a bit out there. Both are already sold out from Apple.
I’m not quite sure what’s limited about the Chartreuse, given that Hikawa’s website still lists it as “ready to ship” along with pre-orders for Cobalt and Blurple Swirl (whose URL seems a bit rushed).
Amusing to see Apple partner with a company whose main products alongside iPhone cases are fanciful toilet seats.
Adi Robertson, The Verge:
As a number of people have pointed out on social media over the past day, Grok’s public-facing chatbot is currently prone to insisting on Musk’s prowess at absolutely anything, no matter how unlikely — or conversely, embarrassing — a given feat is.
Grok claims Musk is fitter than LeBron James, funnier than Jerry Seinfeld, and would likely figure out a way to resurrect himself from the dead faster than Jesus.
But it’s a trustworthy source to author an encyclopedia, sure.
Click on graph for larger image.
So Trump didn’t rendition Mamdani. They appear to be huge friends now. What gives?
Here’s my take since I’ve got this question again and again in the last hour.
I didn’t predict this. But I also don’t think we should be surprised. Trump does stuff like this fairly often. He’s someone’s number one enemy and then they meet and they’re big buds. So this shouldn’t surprise us. But even noting that frequency, it was a bit warm, even for Trump. And by my read, this wasn’t the Trump who’s often conflict-averse in person, lacking the guts to be his aggressive, nasty self to someone’s face. He didn’t seem cowed. He seemed genuinely happy, which if you think about it is something we actually rarely see from Trump. I mean, he shot a torpedo right through the hull of Elise Stefanik’s nascent gubernatorial campaign, to the extent it ever existed, which was marginal. He took away one of Republicans’ biggest attack lines against Mamdani (officially not scary). He made Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer look … well, kinda ridiculous. So again, what gives?
I think there are a few factors.
One is that Mamdani is personally very charming. He’s got oceans of charisma. Even his foes know this. That’s a big thing for Trump. Always has been. It’s of a piece with his being a pushover for any good looking guy he could imagine being a movie leading man. As Trump also noted explicitly in one of the video clips, Mamdani brought a press horde with him. That’s a really, really big thing for Trump. That impresses him. Trump wants to be near that — especially if the recipient of that love provides a pathway to see that love as not being at Trump’s expense, as not the inverse of rejection of Trump.
Obviously, I have no idea what they discussed. But I figure Mamdani came in and said two things right off the bat. I want to build a lot of new housing stock. New construction. You love that. And my victory was built on a lot of voters from the outer boroughs who also voted for you. You’re hearing all this stuff about me. But we actually agree on some key things. We share supporters. I suspect he also said, or would have been wise to say, we don’t have to fight. So let’s not fight?
Let’s be frank. For two or three weeks Trump’s been getting knocked around like a punch-drunk, overaged boxer in a match he never should have agreed to fight. I’m sure Mamdani’s charm offensive felt pretty nice after that.
Now, I fully expect Trump will be back to saying nasty things about Mamdani on social media soon enough, or at least taunting things. There are the objective facts of the national crisis which will bring them into conflict, regardless. But I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Mamdani has gotten more from this than one good press avail. The best way for Mamdani to pull New Yorkers to his side is to get into a pitched battle with Donald Trump, along the lines of what we’ve seen in LA, Chicago, now Charlotte. But it’s really not necessarily the best way for him to succeed as mayor, to notch a bunch of policy wins that allow him to say he’s delivering on his promises about affordability. There’s a difference. I’m not saying he can’t do both. That’s possible. But if he can come to some understanding with Trump to refrain from targeting New York City, that’s a win for his ambitions as mayor even if it lacks the partisan fireworks some are expecting. In the most basic sense, if a mayor’s job isn’t to do everything he can to stop a renegade president from targeting his city what is it?
Like I said, I fully expect them to be fighting soon enough. But I don’t think we have to look too far into the inner workings of either guy to make sense of how and why this went as it did.
For your weekend listening enjoyment: a new episode of America’s favorite 3-star podcast, with special guest Stephen Robles. Topics include indie media and YouTube, Shortcuts and automation, and the state of podcasting.
Sponsored by:
The quality common to all the great operatic roles, e.g., Don Giovanni, Norma, Lucia, Tristan, Isolde, Brunnhilde, is that each of them is a passionate and willful state of being. In reali life they would all be bores, even Don Giovanni.
In recompense for this lack of psychological complexity, however, music can do what words cannot, present the immediate and simultaneous realtion of these states to each other. The crowning glory of opera is the big ensemble.
That is from an excellent W.H. Auden essay “Notes on Music and Opera.”
The post What is opera? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
1. New claims about quantum gravity.
2. Ranking countries by English language proficiency (Ghana should be higher!).
3. Travis Kalanick with some claims about tipping.
4. 32-minute Benedict Evans talk, AI-related.
5. The boring side of Bell Labs.
6. Jobs at Recoding America Fund.
7. FT lunch with Philippe Aghion.
8. More on the Toner-Rodgers story (WSJ).
The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
The Georgia Republican, who campaigned as a Trump loyalist, says she’s disillusioned by him and the party.Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a Republican who rose to prominence with her combative defense of President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement before breaking with him over releasing the files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, is resigning from Congress.
Greene announced that she is leaving office on January 5, 2026. In a video and written statement to X posted Friday evening, Greene cited Trump’s recent attacks on her and indicated that he would likely back a primary challenge against her.
“I have too much self-respect and dignity, love my family way too much, and do not want my sweet district to have to endure a hurtful and hateful primary against me by the President we all fought for, only to fight and win my election while Republicans lose the midterms. And in turn, be expected to defend the President against impeachment after he hatefully dumped tens of millions of dollars against me and tried to destroy me,” she wrote.
“It’s all so absurd and completely unserious,” she added. “I refuse to be a ‘battered wife’ hoping it all goes and gets better.”
Greene, elected to the U.S. House in 2020, was an early and vocal backer of Trump and drew controversy for her far-right views when she first got to Congress. In recent months, she has vocally criticized her party and Trump for not addressing voters’ concerns about affordability, particularly around health care. In her statement, she criticized both political parties and staked out positions opposing immigration and gender-affirming care for minors.
Greene also pointed to the recent government shutdown, during which Speaker Mike Johnson kept the House out of session while Democrats largely refused to vote for a funding deal that didn’t include an extension of health care subsidies set to expire at the end of the year.
“During the longest shutdown in our nation’s history, I raged against my own Speaker and my own party for refusing to proactively work diligently to pass a plan to save American healthcare and protect Americans from outrageous, overpriced and unaffordable health insurance policies,” she said. “The House should have been in session working every day to fix this disaster, but instead America was force fed disgusting political drama once again from both sides of the aisle.”
Greene was one of three House Republican women to sign a discharge petition on a bill to compel the release of the Justice Department’s files on Epstein, who died by suicide in 2019.
Trump, in turn, attacked Greene with epithets including “Marjorie Taylor Brown” and “Marjorie Traitor Greene.” In a news conference with Epstein’s survivors on Tuesday, Greene said Trump’s refusal to release the files had been “one of the most destructive things” to his movement.
“For people that stood hours, slept in their cars to go to rallies, have fought for truth and transparency, and to hold what we consider a corrupt government accountable, watching this actually turn into a fight has ripped MAGA apart,” she said. “And the only thing that will speak to the powerful, courageous women behind me is when action is actually taken to release these files.”
Greene has garnered condemnation and was even once stripped of her committee assignments for her long history of online postings spreading conspiracy theories, espousing anti-Semitism and Islamophobia and, in some cases, calling for violence against political figures.
In her recent statements and in the announcement of her plans to resign, Greene said she has faced increased threats following the president’s attacks on her. She’s not alone in Congress in having Trump’s words lead to threats. On Thursday, Trump attacked a group of congressional Democrats as having committed “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”; the lawmakers reported spikes in threats to their offices.
In a November 16 interview on CNN, Greene said it was “a fair criticism” of her that she did not denounce Trump’s attacks on social media until he attacked her. The September assassination of Turning Point USA founder and conservative leader Charlie Kirk, she said, had given her pause.
“I would like to say, humbly, I’m sorry for taking part in the toxic politics,” she told CNN’s Dana Bash. “It’s very bad for our country. And it’s been something I’ve thought about a lot, especially since Charlie Kirk was assassinated, is that I’m only responsible for myself and my own words and actions. I am going, I am committed, and I’ve been working on this a lot lately, to put down the knives and politics. I really just want to see people be kind to one another.”
Greene won reelection in 2024 by almost 30 points. Her replacement in the heavily Republican district will be chosen in a special election.
DEMOCRACY NEEDS YOU…WE NEED YOU. PLEASE DONATE TODAY.
The post Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Says She’ll Resign in January appeared first on DCReport.org.
It’s been a month since Rewiring Democracy: How AI Will Transform Our Politics, Government, and Citizenship was published. From what we know, sales are good.
Some of the book’s forty-three chapters are available online: chapters 2, 12, 28, 34, 38, and 41.
We need more reviews—six on Amazon is not enough, and no one has yet posted a viral TikTok review. One review was published in Nature and another on the RSA Conference website, but more would be better. If you’ve read the book, please leave a review somewhere.
My coauthor and I have been doing all sort of book events, both online and in person. This book event, with Danielle Allen at the Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center, is particularly good. We also have been doing a ton of podcasts, both separately and together. They’re all on the book’s homepage.
There are two live book events in December. If you’re in Boston, come see us at the MIT Museum on 12/1. If you’re in Toronto, you can see me at the Munk School at the University of Toronto on 12/2.
I’m also doing a live AMA on the book on the RSA Conference website on 12/16. Register here.
I did not know Adidas sold a sneaker called “Squid.”
As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven’t covered.
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September. Economist Philippe Aghion: ‘Macron’s legacy will be better than people think’
France’s new Nobel laureate on stimulating growth, the power of creative destruction — and why Karl Lagerfeld helped him with his homework by Ian Johnston
“I would see politicians articulating economic reasonings and getting to opposite conclusions,” he recalls. “That’s how I came to economics. I need to understand the world to transform the world: that was my motivation.”
,,,
“Zucman would kill Mistral,” he says. “France just becomes a Camembert country. We’d just produce Camembert, which is great, but no more AI.”
,,,
“I push the young people with me to be better than me,” he says. “That’s why I chose creative destruction, because the day I become obsolete, it validates the theory.”
In my post, Horseshoe Theory: Trump and the Progressive Left, I said:
Trump’s political coalition isn’t policy-driven. It’s built on anger, grievance, and zero-sum thinking. With minor tweaks, there is no reason why such a coalition could not become even more leftist. Consider the grotesque canonization of Luigi Mangione, the (alleged) murderer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. We already have a proposed CA ballot initiative named the Luigi Mangione Access to Health Care Act, a Luigi Mangione musical and comparisons of Mangione to Jesus. The anger is very Trumpian.
In that light, consider one of Trump’s recent postings:
THE ONLY HEALTHCARE I WILL SUPPORT OR APPROVE IS SENDING THE MONEY DIRECTLY BACK TO THE PEOPLE, WITH NOTHING GOING TO THE BIG, FAT, RICH INSURANCE COMPANIES, WHO HAVE MADE $TRILLIONS, AND RIPPED OFF AMERICA LONG ENOUGH.
The post Big, Fat, Rich Insurance Companies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Much of it was on AI and also slow take-off, here is the link. Self-recommending…
The post I appear on the Odd Lots podcast appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Welcome to Edition 8.20 of the Rocket Report! For the second week in a row, Blue Origin dominated the headlines with news about its New Glenn rocket. After a stunning success November 13 with the launch and landing of the second New Glenn rocket, Jeff Bezos’ space company revealed a roadmap this week showing how engineers will supercharge the vehicle with more engines. Meanwhile, in South Texas, SpaceX took a step toward the first flight of the next-generation Starship rocket. There will be no Rocket Report next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. We look forward to resuming delivery of all the news in space lift the first week of December.
As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets, as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Northrop’s Pegasus rocket wins a rare contract. A startup named Katalyst Space Technologies won a $30 million contract from NASA in August to build a robotic rescue mission for the agency’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory in low-Earth orbit. Swift, in space since 2004, is a unique instrument designed to study gamma-ray bursts, the most powerful explosions in the Universe. The spacecraft lacks a propulsion system and its orbit is subject to atmospheric drag, and NASA says it is “racing against the clock” to boost Swift’s orbit and extend its lifetime before it falls back to Earth. On Wednesday, Katalyst announced it selected Northrop Grumman’s air-launched Pegasus XL rocket to send the rescue craft into orbit next year.
The year started off slow, but it ended up being a normally strong time for quality, readable non-fiction. Here is my list, noting that the links lead either to my reviews or to Amazon. These are roughly in the order I read them, not ranked ordinally. Here goes:
Caroline Burt and Richard Partington, Arise, England: Six Kings and the Making of the English State.
Tirthankar Roy and K. Ravi Raman, Kerala: 1956 to the Present.
Agnes Callard, Open Socrates: The Case for a Philosophical Life.
Amy Sall, The African Gaze: Photography, Cinema, and Power.
Michael Krielaars, The Sound of Utopia: Musicians in the Time of Stalin.
David Eltis, Rethinking the Atlantic Slave Trades.
Philip Freeman, In the Brewing Luminous: The Life and Music of Cecil Taylor.
Daniel Dain, A History of Boston. Short review here.
Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, Abundance.
Ian Leslie, John & Paul: A Love Story in Songs.
Benjamin E. Park, American Zion: A New History of Mormonism
Roger Chickering, The German Empire, 1871-1918.
Donald S. Lopez Jr., Buddhism: A Journey Through History.
Dan Wang, Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.
Keach Hagey, The Optimist: Sam Altman, OpenAI, and the Race to Invent the Future.
Joseph Torigian, The Party’s Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping.
Rupert Gavin, Amorous or Loving?: The Highly Peculiar Tale of English and the English.
Sam Tanenhaus, Buckley: The Life and Revolution that Changed America.
Erik Penman, Eric Satie Three Piece Suite.
Dwarkesh Patel, and others, The Scaling Era: An Oral History of AI, 2019-2025.
Jeff McMahan, editor, Derek Parfit: His Life and Thought.
Paul McCartney, Wings: The Story of a Band on the Run.
William Easterly, Violent Saviors: The West’s Conquest of the Rest.
Nicholas Walton, Orange Sky, Rising Water: The Remarkable Past and Uncertain Future of the Netherlands.
What else? I will give you an update on anything notable I encounter between now and the end of the year. And here is my earlier post on the best fiction of the year.
The post Best non-fiction books of 2025 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
LAUNCH COMPLEX 14, Cape Canaveral, Fla.—The platform atop the hulking steel tower offered a sweeping view of Florida’s rich, sandy coastline and brilliant blue waves beyond. Yet as captivating as the vista might be for an aspiring rocket magnate like Andy Lapsa, it also had to be a little intimidating.
To his right, at Launch Complex 13 next door, a recently returned Falcon 9 booster stood on a landing pad. SpaceX has landed more than 500 large orbital rockets. And next to SpaceX sprawled the launch site operated by Blue Origin. Its massive New Glenn rocket is also reusable, and founder Jeff Bezos has invested tens of billions of dollars into the venture.
Looking to the left, Lapsa saw a graveyard of sorts for commercial startups. Launch Complex 15 was leased to a promising startup, ABL Space, two years ago. After two failed launches, ABL Space pivoted away from commercial launch. Just beyond lies Launch Complex 16, where Relativity Space aims to launch from. The company has already burned through $1.7 billion in its efforts to reach orbit. Had billionaire Eric Schmidt not stepped in earlier this year, Relativity would have gone bankrupt.
During the pre-dawn hours in South Texas on Friday morning, SpaceX’s next-generation Starship first stage suffered some sort of major damage during pre-launch testing.
The company had only rolled the massive rocket out of the factory a day earlier, noting the beginning of its test campaign, it said on the social media site X: “The first operations will test the booster’s redesigned propellant systems and its structural strength.”
That testing commenced on Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site a couple of miles down the road from the company’s main production site at Starbase Texas. However an independent video showed the rocket’s lower half undergo an explosive (or possibly implosive) event at 4:04 am CT (10:04 UTC) Friday.

Americans are not very happy with Donald Trump’s second term in office. Trump’s approval has trended downward since he returned to power, and has recently fallen again. Here are some numbers from Nate Silver:

Even Fox News admits how bad it’s getting:
Unhappy with the economy. Pain with prices. Unsure about Trump administration policies. It adds up to high disapproval among the president’s loyal constituencies…
Some 76% of voters view the economy negatively. That’s worse than the 67% who felt that way in July and the 70% who said the same at the end of former President Biden’s term…Large numbers, overall and among Republicans, say their costs for groceries, utilities, healthcare and housing have gone up this year…Voters blame the president. About twice as many say President Donald Trump, rather than Biden, is responsible for the current economy. And three times as many say Trump’s economic policies have hurt them (they said the same about Biden’s last year). Plus, approval of how Trump is handling the economy hit a new low, and disapproval of his overall job performance hit record highs among core supporters…
Trump’s job performance drew career-high disapproval among men, White voters and those without a college degree…Among all voters, 41% approve of the job Trump is doing, while 58% disapprove…For comparison, Biden’s marks were a bit better at the same point in his presidency: 44% approved and 54% disapproved in November 2021.
As Fox points out, it’s the economy, rather than immigration policy or culture wars, that’s driving these results. Despite employment, growth and inflation numbers that don’t seem too bad overall, Americans are deeply unhappy with their economy. Preliminary numbers for November’s consumer sentiment show it falling back to the low point it hit in 2022, during the height of the post-pandemic inflation:

And as Fox notes, voters overwhelmingly blame President Trump, rather than Biden, for the economy. Even 42% of Republicans blame Trump rather than Biden, which must be a galling thing to tell a pollster on the phone. Analysis by David Shor finds that Republicans’ trust advantage is evaporating on issues like the cost of living, the budget deficit, and the economy in general.
Exactly why Americans hate their economy right now is a tough question. Sometime during the Biden administration, we saw economic sentiment decouple from the macroeconomic numbers that traditionally correlated with sentiment — in other words, we saw the beginning of the “vibecession”. Now after a modest recovery in 2024, we’re seeing another vibecession under Trump. What’s going on? Is it mortgage rates? Anxiety about AI? Are people displacing their concerns about social unrest onto their perceptions of economic conditions?
One possibility is that Americans are expressing their unhappiness about economic policy, rather than economic results. Both Trump’s approval and consumer sentiment fell abruptly during the recent government shutdown, and they also hit a previous low in May after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced. So low consumer sentiment, and low Trump approval ratings, might be Americans’ way of expressing unhappiness about what Trump is trying to do to the economy.
People must have an intuitive sense that the AI boom is the main thing propping up the macroeconomy right now, and that this could end at any moment. And they probably realize that the AI boom is having to fight against the headwinds created by Trump’s tariffs. They can also see that tariffs are causing localized harm to parts of the U.S. economy right now.
The part of the economy being hurt the most is manufacturing — exactly the sector that Trump has long pledged to help. Even as employment holds up in service jobs like health care and education, employment in goods-producing industries has plunged since “Liberation Day”:

In fact it’s not just manufacturing that’s hurting. Construction and transportation/warehousing jobs, which were booming in Biden’s final year in office, have basically collapsed under Trump. A lot of that construction was factories, which boomed more under Biden than at any time since the 1960s. Under Trump, the factory construction boom has begun to deflate.
But no sector is hurting worse than manufacturing, which continues to shed jobs at a rapid rate. Almost every type of manufacturing is doing badly, but the auto industry has swung from expansion under Biden to contraction under Trump:

What’s going on here? The obvious answer is “tariffs”. Here’s Reuters from a couple of weeks ago:
U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods…Backlog orders remained subdued as did export orders…Production was weak after briefly rebounding in September. Manufacturers have cited tariffs as a major constraint…
Tariffs are gumming up supply chains, resulting in longer delivery times to factories. The ISM survey’s supplier deliveries index increased to 54.2 from 52.6 in September. A reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries…Factories continued to pay more for inputs[.]
This story is not a one-off. In fact, we have seen a steady drumbeat of stories about American manufacturing’s tariff-induced woes since May. In September, Moody’s Analytics assessed that manufacturing was experiencing recession-like conditions, thanks to tariffs. The Institute for Supply Management, which interviews manufacturers, has been receiving an avalanche of tariff-related complaints, along with consistent pessimism about business conditions, for months now.
Things are not as catastrophic as they might have been. Resource prices have fallen worldwide, which has helped cancel out some of the tariffs’ impact. And Trump has backed off of some of his tariffs, especially on China, while granting a byzantine maze of exemptions and deferrals. The effective tariff rate on imports has risen, but only to 10.5% so far — considerably less than the headline rates that Trump has been throwing around on the news.
But although tariffs are hurting less than they would have if Trump had stuck to his guns, they’re certainly hurting to some degree. It’s entirely reasonable for the American people to be unhappy about their government intentionally hurting the economy, even if it doesn’t end up being as bad as promised.
It didn’t have to be this way. If Trump had listened to economists, he might have known that tariffs don’t work the way you might assume from watching CNN in the early 1990s — which, as far as I can tell, is where Trump got most of his ideas about the way the world works. If Trump had listened to economists, he might have understood why tariffs hurt manufacturing.
The reason is that tariffs include taxes on intermediate goods, which make production less efficient.
I’ve talked about this a number of times in the past, and I’ve shown some empirical evidence that tariffs on intermediate goods really do hurt U.S. manufacturing. But I’ve never really talked about the theory behind this idea. I really should talk about it, because if Trump and his people had understood this concept, they might have avoided a lot of pain and a lot of mistakes.
The theory originally comes from a 1971 paper by Peter Diamond and James Mirrlees. Diamond and Mirrlees realize that the government needs to tax the economy in order to produce various stuff (highways, education, research, etc.), and to redistribute income via the welfare state. Most types of taxes tend to distort the economy.1 But Diamond and Mirrlees showed that if the government can tax everything — cars, pizza, back massages, labor, and so on — at different rates, you can levy taxes without distorting economic production.
Now, that’s not that useful of a result. In reality, you can’t actually put different tax rates on every different kind of good or service. But the real value of the Diamond-Mirrlees result is that it shows what kind of taxes you don’t want to use: taxes on intermediate goods. They show that taxing intermediate goods is always worse than taxing either final goods — i.e., stuff consumers buy, like cars and pizza — or “factors of production” (i.e., labor, capital, land, etc.). You never want to tax stuff like steel, or auto parts, or computer chips that companies buy in order to produce other stuff.
If you like, here are some slides from Todd Lensman that explain the math of this result in a simplified form.
So why don’t you want to tax intermediate goods? Because you want to make as much stuff as you can make before you start redistributing it. If the purpose of taxes is to redistribute the economic pie,2 you want to redistribute as big of a pie as you possibly can. Taxes on things like steel, auto parts, and computer chips cause the economy to make fewer cars, houses, computers, etc. So when you collect taxes and then give people money to spend, there are fewer cars, houses, and computers for them to buy with the money you give them. You should have just let capitalism work its magic and make as much stuff as possible, and then worried about how to redistribute.
This is a very powerful and deep result. Diamond and Mirrlees made some simplifying assumptions in order to make the math easier, but other theorists came in later and did the harder math, and they showed that the basic result — no taxes on intermediate goods — holds for a pretty wide range of assumptions.
That’s a very useful real-world result! In fact, real-world tax systems in rich countries mostly stick to the Diamond-Mirrlees principle. Income and payroll taxes are taxes on “factor inputs”, so they’re OK. Corporate taxes allow you to deduct business expenses, so they’re also OK — you’re not taxing the cost of the intermediate goods that businesses buy.
U.S. sales taxes are actually bad, because they violate the Diamond-Mirrlees principle — lots of sales taxes are levied on B2B transactions. Europe does this much better — their value-added tax (VAT) is basically a sales tax that doesn’t get charged on the things businesses buy. America would be a bit richer if we switched from sales taxes to VAT, but we won’t, because sales taxes are used by our state and local governments, while a VAT would have to be nationally administered.
Anyway, Trump’s tariffs absolutely violate the Diamond-Mirrlees principle. When most people think about imports, they think about cheap stuff you buy on the shelf at Wal-Mart. Diamond and Mirrlees would be fine with taxing that stuff — the things on the shelf at Wal-Mart are “final goods”. But almost half of what America imports from overseas is intermediate goods. Here are numbers from 2019:

Trump’s tariffs apply to all of those intermediate goods. That’s why carmakers are having trouble making cars right now. And it’s why even if Trump does mail tariff rebate checks to every American, the number of cars they’ll be able to buy with those checks will be fewer than they could have bought before the tariffs.
Because neither Trump nor any of his people understood the basic insight of Diamond-Mirrlees (1971), they are trying to redistribute a pie that they’ve already shrunk. And the American people don’t appear to be happy about it.
Are there ever situations where you’d want to tax intermediate goods? Yes. Like any economic theory, if you break enough of the assumptions, the basic result no longer holds. Costinot and Werning (2022) show that if your only taxes are income taxes and tariffs, you should use tariffs to reduce inequality. Basically, if imports from China hit a few kinds of American workers very hard, and you have no way to specifically compensate those folks,3 then you should have some tariffs on China, in order to protect those few workers. But even then, Costinot and Werning show that the optimal tariff will be very small — between 0.02% and 0.12%, compared with the 10% that Trump has enacted so far. The world isn’t exactly like Diamond-Mirrlees, but it’s pretty close.
So anyway, tariffs on intermediate goods are bad. Economists knew this, and shouted it from the rooftops. But the Trump administration prides itself on not listening to economists. JD Vance has declared that “the economics profession doesn’t fully understand tariffs”, and hardly a day goes by when Trump-aligned intellectuals like Oren Cass don’t sneer at the economics field.
And yet this willful ignorance comes with real political costs. No, economists don’t know everything about how the economy works. Maybe they don’t even know most things. But they do know some things, and one of those things is that taxing intermediate goods hurts the economy.
If Trump’s people had allowed themselves to understand that fact — if they had listened to the economists — Trump’s approval ratings might not be nearly so low as they are.
And if you’re a progressive, the temptation to laugh at Trump over all of this will naturally be very strong. But the right lesson here isn’t that “Trump is dumb” (though that is probably true). The right lesson here is that although there are lots of things they don’t know, and although they don’t get everything right, and although they’re often overconfident, economists are worth listening to, even when they don’t tell you what you want to hear. That’s a lesson that Biden and his people should have heeded before they unleashed a stimulus plan that macroeconomists predicted would exacerbate inflation. And it’s a lesson that will come in handy the next time Democrats are in charge of the economy.
Update: In the comments, Charlie Hammerslough relates his own experience with the tariffs:
Here’s the perspective of a start-up manufacturer of a physical good. Our product is made from steel parts that I’m currently in India to source. Plus off the shelf electronics and a lock that we import from China, because there is no other source.
We assemble the product in the US, creating jobs there. I *want* to manufacture in the US.
The electronics and lock have doubled in price since April. I’d love to cut and bend the steel in the US, but protectionist tariffs have increased local steel prices by 50%, reducing the advantages of domestic manufacturing.
So, tariffs are approximately 35% of the cost of the finished product. This is a struggle. Sometimes I want to bag it and just invest my money in something more predictable.
Yep. This is exactly how the Diamond-Mirrlees model works. Economics looks like this abstract math on a page, but that math is ultimately about real people and real businesses, with real stakes. I wish a lot more people in our government realized that.
Except for land taxes and “lump-sum” taxes. Lump-sum taxes are where the government says “OK, every citizen give me $100”. Obviously that’s not going to fly in real life. Land taxes actually do work in real life, although they can logistically be tough to implement, due to the difficulty of distinguishing between the value of land and the value of all the stuff that’s built on top of the land.
Diamond and Mirrlees also allow for another purpose of government: to produce useful stuff, like infrastructure and education. But here, their solution is basically just “run the government production exactly like a private company would run it” — essentially, make some SOEs that minimize costs like a private company would. Easier said than done, right? But anyway, that doesn’t really affect the “intermediate goods” result.
From a Diamond-Mirrlees standpoint, the best way to compensate these folks would probably be to subsidize the industries that are subject to the most intense Chinese competition, rather than to send money to workers who get displaced.
Lack of transit funding could derail the Interstate Bridge Project
No one has committed money to build or operate the key light rail segment of the IBR project.
The “deal” has always been that Washington state got a widened highway if Oregon got light rail.
The Trump Administration actively hostile to transit funding and to the Portland metropolitan area
IBR isn’t even planning on filing an application for federal funds until 2028, well after it starts construction
There is no plan for paying for the operating costs–neither of the region’s transit agencies–Tri-Met and CTRAN–have committed to spending the money
Much of Clark County doesn’t want anything to do with light rail, and certainly not to pay for it.
The project’s planing documents called for an agreement to be reached years ago–but it still hasn’t happened.

A major, unfunded piece of the proposed $7.5 billion (soon to be $9-10 billion) Interstate Bridge Project is extension of a light rail line across the river into Vancouver. But project proponents have gotten neither the money to build the light rail line, nor the money to operate it once built.
Throughout its checkered two decade long history, the Interstate Bridge Project (nee Columbia River Crossing) has been a kind of grand compromise between highway boosters and transit advocates. Some (mostly on the Washington side, really just wanted a bigger highway bridge), others (mostly on the Oregon side) wanted to extend Portland’s light rail system into downtown Vancouver (just across the Columbia River). Oregon’s state Supreme Court even opined that the law authorizing the project was implicitly a political deal between the two states that incorporated just those terms. Willamette Week called the cost of the freeway “a $2.5 billion bribe” to get Washington to accept light rail:
Oregon’s Supreme Court says light-rail politics drove plans for a new I-5 bridge.
The Oregon Supreme Court has succeeded in doing what scores of public meetings, thousands of pages of reports, and endless public relations spin could not: Give us the original rationale behind the proposed $3.5 billion Columbia River Crossing. The answer, according to the court: The massive Interstate 5 bridge and freeway project is a “political necessity” to persuade Clark County residents to accept something they previously didn’t want—a MAX light-rail line from Portland to Vancouver.
If light rail can’t be built as part of the project, much, if not all of the enthusiasm and support for the project could easily disappear on the Oregon side of the river. More to the point, the entire project’s authorization under Oregon’s landmark land use laws hinges on building the light rail line. If light rail goes, the political, financial and legal foundations of the project could collapse.
But the funding for both building and operating light rail transit as part of the project is just vaporware at this point. For years, IBR officials have been counting on getting about $1 billion in federal grants to pay virtually all of the cost of building the light rail line, but they’ve put off even filing an application for those funds until 2028. And the recent advent of the Trump Administration, which is hostile to transit generally, to big transit projects in particular, and to Portland especially. According to Politico, Trump’s Transportation Department has proposed zeroing out funding from the Highway Trust Fund to transit. This same department has cancelled major federal funding for California High Speed Rail, and New York’s Gateway tunnel project. And a key provision of the “Big Beautiful Bill” was clawing nearly all of the money the Biden Administration awarded for Portland’s I-5 Rose Quarter widening project (which was the largest single grant from the Reconnecting Communities Program). IBR officials haven’t presented any kind of contingency plan for paying for light rail construction, and the financial risks to the two state’s are magnified by a project schedule that calls for construction to start at least a year before they know whether the federal government will contribute anything to pay for light rail construction costs. The latest project schedule shows that IBR won’t have a decision on federal funding until 2028 at the earliest, while construction is supposed to start in 2026.
As bad as the capital cost outlook is, the operating cost outlook may be even worse. Late last year, the IBR project said it would cost approximately $20 million per year to operate light rail, which caused both local transit agencies–Tri-Met and C-TRAN–to balk. Since then the agency has been looking to cut operating costs. They have a new estimate that says, at least initially operating costs might be as low as $10 million annually, but there’s a catch: it means dramatically reducing service frequency. But so far, neither Tri-Met nor CTRAN have agreed to pay for light rail operations, nor have them come up with a source of funds to pay these costs. That’s important for obvious reasons, but its also worth noting that the federal government has a policy of not making capital grants for projects for which state and/or local governments haven’t come up with the money to pay for operations. In effect, not having money to run light rail trains is a barrier to getting federal funds to lay the track.
So far, the only solution that has been forwarded for dealing with the operating costs is to drastically cut back on light rail service. If you don’t run so many trains, then operations don’t cost so much. The big savings come from cutting back service from nine trains per hour at the peak, to just four trains per hour (the same as planned off-peak service). Of course, the trouble with this is that if you don’t run as many trains, you don’t get the benefits of a high capacity transit system (reducing congestion, increasing accessibility, lowering pollution. The project’s latest ridership estimates predict only about 5,000 riders per day, compared to an EIS estimate of more than 21,000 per day. Both the cost-effectiveness of the light rail, and the analysis of its environmental impacts is contingent on running lots and lots of trains, frequently across the bridge. If you run fewer trains, it will be cheaper to operate, but it will serve fewer passengers, and consequently do less to reduce automobile traffic and pollution. And carrying fewer riders materially changes how the US Department of Transportation “scores” a proposed grant: In general, USDOT funds only projects that are cost effective (that carry lots of passengers at low costs). Reducing frequencies and passenger counts increases the per passenger cost of capital improvements, and makes the project less viable to US DOT, so much so that it may not qualify for capital funding.
All of these problems are accentuated by the fact that Tri-Met, like many transit agencies around the United States, is facing a fiscal crisis. In the wake of the Covid pandemic, and with the increased adoption of work from home, transit ridership has fallen dramatically. At the same time, labor market tightness has pushed up the cost of hiring bus drivers, and on top of that, the one-time federal money that came to transit agencies to cope with the pandemic is running out. What that means is Tri-Met is facing major budget cuts, as the Oregonian reported on November 20, 2025:
TriMet’s top leader warned Wednesday that the regional transit agency will have to cut service over the next three years to close a $300 million budget gap due to rising costs, declining ridership and lawmakers’ failure to pass a transportation funding package.
So if Tri-Met were to commit to pay for light rail service across the Columbia River, it would have to further cut existing service, especially bus service, to Portland residents.
Nor does it appear that CTRAN, the transit operator in Clark County. Washington, has either the interest or the wherewithal to pay for light rail. For more than a decade, CTRAN has been building a series of bus rapid transit lines in Clark County, and for decades it has run a system of express buses to various locations (mostly employment centers) in Portland. Those systems work well, and the agency is not inclined to cut them to move into light rail. (And, ironically, given its circuitous routing and frequent stops, the light rail line would provide slower service than today’s express buses for Vancouver commuters traveling to job centers in Portland).
Light rail is far less popular in Clark County than in Oregon: It’s often derisively (and baselessly) called the “crime train” and is seen as an example of “Portland creep“–Portland foisting its liberal green values on Clark County. Many in Clark County don’t want to see light rail built at all, and even more have no inclination to pay for operating it. In the Eastern suburbs of Clark County–far from the light rail terminus in Vancouver, residents are concerned that light rail costs will lead to cuts in their bus service, which have prompted the cities of Camas and Washougal to contemplate seceding from CTRAN.
What should be particularly concerning to policy makers is that IBR and other local officials have been kicking the can down the road on paying for both construction and operation of light rail. The loudest alarm bells are the fact that the project schedule calls for the two state DOTs to start construction at least a year before they know whether they get any federal money to pay for light rail construction. It is also disconcerting that the project’s schedule has called for coming up with a plan to pay for operating costs for years, and a 2024 project schedule predicted the agreements would be complete in February of 2025, (IBR-Integrated Task Schedule Progress Update #12 – 01-Jan-2024 FINAL) but still nothing has been resolved. It appears that the IBR is looking to simply blunder ahead, even without funding, and when the federal government turns them down (or offers much less than the hoped for $1 billion) simply blackmails the two states to make up the costs. It’s a cynical ploy, and hopefully no one will fall for it.
Within all day long, helping to put up my hangings in my house in my wife’s chamber, to my great content. In the afternoon I went to speak to Sir J. Minnes at his lodgings, where I found many great ladies, and his lodgings made very fine indeed.
At night to supper and to bed: this night having first put up a spitting sheet, —[?? D.W.] which I find very convenient. This day come the King’s pleasure-boats from Calais, with the Dunkirk money, being 400,000 pistols.

SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral in the early hours Saturday as the company continues to expand its network of more than 9,000 satellites for the Starlink internet service.
Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station came at 2:53 a.m. EST (0753 UTC). It was the 150th flight of a Falcon 9 rocket in 2025 and the ninth of 11 Starlink missions planned this month and the 109th Starlink delivery run for the Falcon 9 this year.
After climbing away from pad 40, the Falcon 9 pitched and rolled on to a south-easterly trajectory to place its cargo of 29 Starlink V2 satellites into an orbit inclined at 43 degrees to the Equator.
SpaceX flew B1090, a relatively new first stage booster making its ninth flight. After separating from the Falcon 9 second stage at an altitude of about 40 miles (65km), it continued to arc higher over the Atlantic crossing the Karman line — considered to be the boundary of space — before plunging back to Earth and landing on the drone ship ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas’.

The second stage fired for about six minutes to place the Starlink satellites stacked atop the rocket into a parking orbit. After coasting for about 45 minutes, the second stage circularized the orbit with a one-second burn of its Merlin Vacuum engine.
Separation of the satellites into a 170×162 mile (274×261 km) orbit came an hour and five minutes into flight.
Another 28 satellites are scheduled to launch from the West Coast Sunday morning.
Last train to Clarksville? Lack of transit funding could derail the Interstate Bridge Project. No one has committed money to build or operate the key light rail segment of the IBR project. The “deal” has always been that Washington state got a widened highway if Oregon got light rail.
The Trump Administration actively hostile to transit funding and to the Portland metropolitan area. IBR isn’t even planning on filing an application for federal funds until 2028, well after it starts construction
There is no plan for paying for the operating costs–neither of the region’s transit agencies–Tri-Met and CTRAN–have committed to spending the money. Much of Clark County doesn’t want anything to do with light rail, and certainly not to pay for it. The project’s planning documents called for an agreement to be reached years ago–but it still hasn’t happened.
The end of federal funding for transit? Politico reports (paywall), that leaked documents show that the US Department of Transportation is proposing to eliminate federal funding for transit through the highway trust funds and also end the ability of states to “flex” highway funding to transit. The results, according to Transportation for America, would be devastating for the nation’s transit systems.
In a statement, Transportation for America’s Steve Davis says:
“This short-sighted proposal will annihilate state and local transportation budgets, strand millions of Americans who depend on transit every day in red and blue states alike, produce chaos and increase congestion, seize control from states, and utterly fail to actually solve our most pressing long-term transportation funding issues. The highway formula program alone spends $20 billion more than what the gas tax brings in every year—stealing transit funds won’t change that.”
The good news, if there is any, according to Davis, is that this should put dramatically change the discussion over proposed transportation reauthorization legislation in the coming year. This major existential threat to transit should end the “business as usual” approach to reauthorization, and provoke some serious examination of a program that has routinely raided general funds to subsidize highway construction and produced little to show for it in terms of tangible results like reduced congestion or improved safety.
Paul Krugman on cities and agglomeration economies. There have been headlines claiming that New York’s election of Zohran Mamdani, a avowed Democratic Socialist as Mayor will prompt capitalists to run for the exits. That’s not going to happen, for very good economic reasons, according to Paul Krugman
Why won’t plutocrats flee New York? For one thing, they’re not stupid (although they were hoping that voters were.) Mamdani might — might — be able to raise their taxes a bit. But they don’t really believe that free buses and city-run grocery stores will turn one of America’s safest cities into a post-apocalyptic landscape. And New York will retain formidable advantages thanks to agglomeration economies — the advantages of locating a business where many other related businesses are concentrated.
And New York has not only powerful advantages in productivity, it also turns out that it offers even larger advantages in the form of diverse, plentiful and convenient consumption opportunities.
The central city has much higher effective population density than any other city in America, which in turn supports a range of amenities — restaurants, shops, museums, shows and concerts, and more — that you can’t find anywhere else.
The advantages in consumption accrue to almost everyone in New York, but are especially valuable to those with lots of money to spend, which is why rich people can, and will continue to find the city a great place to live, even if the rents (and taxes) might be higher than say, Iowa.
A market premium for walkability. Realtors are reporting that more home buyers are looking for homes in walkable neighborhoods, and that walkable properties command a growing premium over car-dependent housing. The National Association of Realtors quotes one industry leader, Howard Hanna, as saying:
Walkability has become one of the most valuable amenities in today’s housing market. We’re seeing buyers pay 10% to 20% more for homes that offer a true ‘step-out-and-go’ lifestyle. It appeals to every generation, from young families who want stroller-friendly streets to seniors who prioritize mobility, health, and longevity.
According to Realtor.com, the share of listings that highlight neighborhood walkability has doubled in the past year from 0.6 percent to 1.3 percent. While conspiracy theorists have characterized 15-minute cities as a globalist plot, the report from real estate professionals is that its actually a highly desirable consumer choice. NAR says people are clamoring for walkability, and are willing to pay for it.
The hottest trend in urban design is the “15-minute city”—where theoretically it takes only 15 minutes to walk to anything you need.
Visualizing 15 minute cities. And, speaking 15-minute cities, there’s a new study that maps accessibility in cities globally. It also includes a web-based interface that allows users to examine, in great detail, variations in walkability and bikability. Like other accessbility measures, such as Walk Score, the maps indicate how long it takes to reach a portfolio of common destinations (stores, schools, parks and other points of interest) by bike or walking from each neighborhood in a city.
Here, for example, is a map of a portion of the Portland Metropolotina area, showing the region’s most accessible locations (in blue) and least accessible (in red). As the authors explain:
These maps will tell you how much an area is “15 Minutes”. Each area’s colour represents the average travel time for an individual to reach its daily activity venues on foot or by bike. If this travel time is below 15 minutes, the area colour will be blue, red otherwise.
The maps also allow you to drill down to individual hexagons to inspect specific values, and examine separately the proximity to destinations by broad category, as well as mode (biking or walking).
Because the authors have compiled data for cities around the world, you’re not limited to looking at US cities, or comparing US cities only to other locations in the US. Here, for example, are side by side maps of the Houston metropolitan area compared to Paris (France, not Texas). Paris is overwhelmingly walkable (with only a small amount of inaccessible locations on the periphery. Houston, by contrast has a relatively few walkable areas in its center, and is largely automobile dependent (red).
When my flight took off from Madrid, my news feed was all about how Nvidia’s earnings had banished worries about an AI bubble. By the time I landed in NY, no they hadn’t, and Trump was threatening to execute members of Congress for saying that the military should disobey illegal orders.
So there’s a lot going on. Financially, the most striking may be the crash in crypto, which, as I wrote just two days ago, has become a Trump trade. Question: Is the ongoing plunge justified by fundamentals? Answer: What fundamentals?
But too tired to say much right now. Regular posting will resume this weekend.
MUSICAL CODA
We should all be using dependency cooldowns
William Woodruff gives a name to a sensible strategy for managing dependencies while reducing the chances of a surprise supply chain attack: dependency cooldowns.Supply chain attacks happen when an attacker compromises a widely used open source package and publishes a new version with an exploit. These are usually spotted very quickly, so an attack often only has a few hours of effective window before the problem is identified and the compromised package is pulled.
You are most at risk if you're automatically applying upgrades the same day they are released.
William says:
I love cooldowns for several reasons:
- They're empirically effective, per above. They won't stop all attackers, but they do stymie the majority of high-visibiity, mass-impact supply chain attacks that have become more common.
- They're incredibly easy to implement. Moreover, they're literally free to implement in most cases: most people can use Dependabot's functionality, Renovate's functionality, or the functionality build directly into their package manager
The one counter-argument to this is that sometimes an upgrade fixes a security vulnerability, and in those cases every hour of delay in upgrading as an hour when an attacker could exploit the new issue against your software.
I see that as an argument for carefully monitoring the release notes of your dependencies, and paying special attention to security advisories. I'm a big fan of the GitHub Advisory Database for that kind of information.
Via Hacker News
Tags: definitions, github, open-source, packaging, supply-chain
Links for you. Science:
Nanotech makes cancer drug 20,000x stronger, without side effects
Entry, replication and innate immunity evasion of BANAL-236, a SARS-CoV-2-related bat virus, in Rhinolophus and human cells
Archaeologists discover how oldest American civilisation survived a climate catastrophe
Small Language Models are the Future of Agentic AI
Can Narcissists Actually Change?
Emboldened, Kennedy Allies Embrace a Label They Once Rejected: ‘Anti-Vax’
Other:
Congressional Democrats Are Just as Spineless as Ever
Right-Wing Critics of Antisemitism Keep Strikingly Silent About Trump
The Democrats continue to tolerate backstabbers
I Want You to Understand Chicago
Democratic Whip Dick Durbin
Kennedy Center chief sucks at his job—and hates it
Yell Before It Is Too Late
Voters Ousted This Pennsylvania Sheriff After He Signed Up to Collaborate With ICE
He’s a citizen with a Real ID. ICE detained him anyway. Twice.
What Climate Change Will Do to America by Mid-Century. Many places may become uninhabitable. Many people may be on their own.
Why These Vichy Dems and Their Spineless Boss Need to Go Now
Democrats Were on a Roll. Why Stop Now?
How Elon Musk’s Changes to X Made Our Discourse Far Stupider
Masked ICE agents put damper on Oak Park Girl Scout food drive: ‘It’s heartbreaking as a mom’
The Summer the Internet Found Empathy — And How Quickly We Lost It
Why the conspiratorial right rallied around a flock of ostriches
Editing federal employees’ emails to blame Democrats for shutdown violated their First Amendment rights, judge says
Inside Washington’s Controversial Addiction to Autopens
Waukegan alderman says federal agents pulled guns on him: ‘There were four barrels pointed at me’
The Boss Has a Message: Use AI or You’re Fired
Off the Beaten Track: How is Life in China’s “Most Median City”?
Ethered
Only a Fraction of Republicans’ Much-Touted $50 Billion Rural Health Fund Can Help Struggling Hospitals Pay Their Bills
Good Job, Chuck
Bari Weiss wants to take down CBS News’ Standards and Practices unit for having ‘too much power’
The Latest Defense Against ICE: 3D-Printed Whistles
Everybody Stand Down: New Yorker Columnist’s Child Doesn’t Care About Sports Gambling
Is This the Haphazard End of Streateries in DC? (it’s a bad policy)
There Are No Weird Blogs Anymore Cause It’s More Fruitful to Drive Them Out of Business
At a Loss for Words
This is the second part of what looks like it’ll be end up as a four part series discussing the debates surrounding ancient Greek hoplites, the heavy infantry of the Archaic (800-480) and Classical (480-323) periods. Last week, we outlined the contours of the debate: the major points of contention and the history of the debate and how it has come to its current – and I would argue, unsatisfactory – point.
This week, I want to stay laying out my own sense of the arguments and what I see as a viable synthesis. I’ve opted to split this into three parts because I don’t just want to present my ‘answers’ but also really use this as an opportunity to contrast the two opposing camps (hoplite orthodoxy and hoplite heterodoxy) in the process of laying out where I think the firmest ground is, which as we’ll see is something of a blend of both. That is a larger project so I’ve opted to split it up. This post will cover the question of equipment, both the date of its emergence and its use and function (which have implications for chronolgy and tactics). Then the next post will cover the question of tactics, both in terms of how the phalanx might have functioned on an Archaic battlefield where light infantry and cavalry remained common and important and how it may have functioned in a late-Archaic or Classical battlefield when they were less central (but still at least sometimes present). Then, at long last, the final post will cover what I think are some of the social and political implications (some of which falls out of the first ideas), which is actually where I think some of the most explosive conclusions really are.
However before I launch into all of that, I want to be clear about the perspective I am coming from. On the one hand, I am an ancient historian, I do read ancient Greek, I can engage with the main bodies of evidence (literary, archaeological, representational) directly, as an expert. On the other hand, I am not a scholar of hoplites: this is my field, but not my sub-field. Consequently, I am assessing the arguments of folks who have spent a lot more time on hoplites than me and have thus read these sources more closely and more widely than I have. I can check their work, I can assess their arguments, but while I am going to suggest solutions to some of these quandaries, I want to be clear I am coming at this from a pose of intellectual humility in terms of raw command of the evidence.
(Although I should note this post, which is on equipment basically is square in my wheelhouse, so if I sound a bit more strident this week it is because while I am modestly familiar with hoplites, I am very familiar with hoplite (and other pre-gunpowder) equipment.)
On the other hand, I think I do come at the problem with two advantages, the value of which the reader may determine for themselves. The first of these is simply that I am not a scholar of hoplites and so I am not ‘in’ one of these ‘camps;’ an ‘outsiders’ perspective – from someone who can still engage directly with the evidence – can be handy. The second of these is frankly that I have very broad training as a military historian which gives me a somewhat wider base of comparative evidence to draw on than I think has been brought to bear on these questions before. And that is going to be relevant, particularly this week, because part of my core argument here is that one mistake that has been repeated here is treating the hoplite phalanx as something special and unique, rather than as an interesting species of a common phenomenon: the shield wall, which has shared characteristics that occur in many cultures at many times.
As always, if you like what you are reading, please share it as I rely on word-of-mouth to find readers! And if you really like it, you can support this project over at Patreon; I don’t promise not to use the money to buy a full hoplite panoply, but I also don’t not promise to do that.1 And if you want updates whenever a new post appears, you can click below for email updates or follow me on Twitter and Bluesky for updates when posts go live and my general musings; I have largely shifted over to Bluesky (I maintain some de minimis presence on Twitter), given that it has become a much better place for historical discussion than Twitter.
We need to start with three entwined questions, the nature of hoplite equipment, the dates at which it appears and the implications for the emergence of the ‘true’ phalanx (and its nature). As I noted in the first part, while the two ‘camps’ on hoplites consist of a set of linked answers to key questions, the strength of those linkages vary: in some cases, answer A necessitates answer B and in some cases it does not. In this case, the hoplite orthodox argument is that hoplite equipment was too cumbersome to fight much outside of the phalanx, which in turn (they argue) necessitates that the emergence of the full panoply means the phalanx must come with it. Consequently, hoplite orthodoxy assumes something like a ‘hoplite revolution’ (a phrase they use), where hoplites (and their equipment) and the phalanx emerge at more of less the same time, rapidly remaking the politics of the polis and polis warfare.
By contrast, hoplite heterodoxy unlinks these issues, by arguing that hoplite equipment is not that cumbersome and so need not necessitate the phalanx, while at the same time noting that such equipment emerged gradually and the fully panoply appeared rather later than hoplite orthodoxy might suggest. But this plays into a larger argument that hoplites developed outside of close-order formations and could function just as well in skirmish or open-order environments.
As an aside, I want to clarify terminology here: we are not dealing, this week, with the question of ‘the phalanx.’ That term’s use is heavily subject to definition and we need to have that definitional fight out before we use it. So instead, we are going to talk about ‘close order‘ formations (close intervals (combat width sub-150cm or so), fixed positioning) as compared to ‘open order‘ (wide intervals (combat width 150cm+), somewhat flexible positioning) and skirmishing (arbitrary intervals, infinitely flexible positioning). And in particular, we’re interested in a big ‘family’ of close-order formations I am going to call shield walls, which is any formation where combatants stand close enough together to mutually support with shields (which is often not shoulder-to-shoulder, but often more like 1m combat widths). We will untangle how a phalanx fits into these categories later.
We can start, I think, with the easy part: when does hoplite equipment show up in the evidence-record. This is the easier question because it can be answered with some decision by archaeology: when you have dated examples of the gear or representations of it in artwork, it exists; if you do not, it probably doesn’t yet. We should be clear here that we’re working with a terminus post quem (‘limit before which’), which is to say our evidence will give us the latest possible date of something: if we find that the earliest, say, Archaic bell-cuirass we have is c. 720, then c. 721 is the last possible date that this armor might not yet have existed. But of course there could have been still earlier armors which do not survive: so new discoveries can shift dates back but not forward in time. That said, our evidence – archaeology of arms buttressed by artwork of soldiers – is fairly decent and it would be a major surprise if any of these dates shifted by more than a decade or two.
(An aside before I go further: I am focused here mostly on the when of hoplite equipment. There is also a really interesting question of the where of early hoplite equipment. Older hoplite orthodox scholars assumed hoplite equipment emerged in Greece ex nihilo and was peculiar to the Greeks, but this vision has been challenged and I think is rightly challenged (by, e.g. J. Brouwers, Henchmen of Ares (2013), reviewed favorably by Sean Manning here). In particular, the fact that a lot of our evidence comes from either Southern Italy or Anatolia is not always well appreciated in these debates. We don’t have the space to untangle those arguments (and I am not versed enough on the eastern side) but it is well worth remembering that Archaic Greece was not culturally isolated and that influences eastern and western are easy to demonstrate.)
And what our evidence suggests is that Anthony Snodgrass was right:2 hoplite equipment emerges peicemeal and gradually (and were adopted even slower), not all at once and did so well before we have evidence by any other metric for fighting in the phalanx (which comes towards the end of the equipment’s developmental timeline).
The earliest piece of distinctively hoplite equipment that we see in artwork is the circular aspis, which starts showing up around c. 750, but takes a long time to displace other, lighter shield forms, only pushing out these other types in artwork (Diplyon shields with ‘carve outs’ on either side giving them a figure-8 design, squarish shields, center-grip shields) in the back half of the 600s. Metal helmets begin appearing first in the late 8th century (a couple of decades behind the earliest aspides), with the oldest type being the open-faced Kegelhelm, which evolved into the also open-faced ‘Illyrian‘ helmet (please ignore the ethnic signifiers used on these helmet names, they are usually not historically grounded). By the early seventh century – so just a few decades later – we start to get our first close-faced helmets, the early Corinthian helmet types, which is going to be the most popular – but by no means only – helmet for hoplites for the rest of the Archaic and early Classical.

Coming fairly quickly after the appearance of metal helmets is metal body armor, with the earliest dated example (to my knowledge) still being the the Argos cuirass (c. 720), which is the first of the ‘bell cuirass’ type, which will evolve into the later muscle cuirass you are likely familiar with, which appears at the tail end of the Archaic as an artistic elaboration of the design. Not everyone dons this armor right away to go by its appearance in artwork or prevalence in the archaeological record – adoption was slow, almost certainly (given the expense of a bronze cuirass) from the upper-classes downward.

This element of armor is eventually joined by quite a few ‘add-ons’ protecting the arms, legs, feet and groin, which also phase in (and in some cases phase out) over time. The first to show up are greaves (which are also the only armor ‘add on’ to really stick around) which begin to appear perhaps as early as c. 750 but only really securely (there are dating troubles with some examples) by c. 700. Small semi-circular metal plates designed to hang from the base of the cuirass to protect the belly and goin, ‘belly guards,’ start showing up around c. 675 or so (so around four decades after the cuirasses themselves), while other add-ins fill in later – ankle-guards in the mid-600s, foot-guards and arm guards (quite rare) in the late 600s. All of these but the greaves basically phase out by the end of the 500s.

Pteruges, those distinctive leather strips hanging down from the cuirass (they are part of the textile or leather liner worn underneath it) start showing up in the sixth century (so the 500s), about two centuries after the cuirasses themselves. There is also some reason to suppose that textile armor is in use as a cheaper substitute for the bronze cuirass as early as the seventh century, but it is only in the mid-sixth century that we get clear and unambiguous effort for the classic stiff tube-and-yoke cuirass which by c. 500 becomes the most common hoplite armor, displacing the bronze cuirass (almost certainly because it was cheaper, not because it was lighter, which it probably wasn’t).

Weapons are less useful for our chronology, so we can give them just a few words. Thrusting spears were, of course, a bronze age technology not lost to our Dark Age Greeks, but they persist alongside throwing spears, often with visible throwing loops, well into the 600s, even for heavily armored hoplite-style troops. As for swords, the Greek hoplites will have two types, a straight-edged cut-and-thrust sword of modest length (the xiphos) and a single-edged foward curving chopper of a sword (the kopis), though older Naue II types – a continuation of bronze age designs – continues all the way into the 500s. The origin of the kopis is quite contested and meaningfully uncertain (whereas the xiphos seems a straight line extrapolation from previous designs), but need not detain us here.
So in summary, we do not see a sudden ‘revolution’ in terms of the adoption of hoplite arms, but rather a fairly gradual process stretched out over a century where equip emerges, often vies with ‘non-hoplite’ equipment for prominence and slowly becomes more popular (almost certainly faster in some places and slower in others, though our evidence rarely lets us see this clearly). The aspis first starts showing up c. 750, the helmets a decade or two after that, the breastplates a decade or two after that, the greaves a decade or two after that, the other ‘add-ons’ a few decades after that (by which point we’re closing in on 650 and we have visual evidence of hoplites in close-order, albeit with caveats). Meanwhile adoption is also gradual: hoplite-equipped men co-exist in artwork alongside men with different equipment for quite a while, with artwork showing unbroken lines of uniformly equipped hoplites with the full panoply beginning in the mid-to-late 7th century, about a century to a century and a half after we started. It is after this, in the sixth century, that we see both pteruges – which will become the standard goin and upper-thigh protection – and the tube-and-yoke cuirass, a cheaper armor probably indicating poorer-but-still-well-to-do men entering the phalanx.

Consequently, the Archaic hoplite must have shared his battlefield with non-hoplites and indeed – and this is one of van Wees’ strongest points – when we look at Archaic artwork, we see that a lot. Just all over the place. Hoplites with cavalry, hoplites with light infantry, hoplites with archers (and, of course, hoplites with hoplites).
Of course that raises key questions about how hoplites function on two kinds of battlefield: an early battlefield where they have to function within an army that is probably still predominately lighter infantry (with some cavalry) and a later battlefield in which the hoplite is the center-piece of the army. But before we get to how hoplites fight together, we need to think a bit about what hoplite equipment means for how they fight individually.
If the basic outlines of the gradualist argument about the development of hoplite equipment is one where the heterodox camp has more or less simply won, the argument about the impact of that equipment is one in which the orthodox camp is determined to hold its ground.
To summarize the arguments: hoplite orthodoxy argues, in effect, that hoplite equipment was so heavy and cumbersome that it necessitated fighting in the phalanx. As a result orthodox scholars tend to emphasize the significant weight of hoplite equipment. Consequently, this becomes an argument against any vision of a more fluid battlefield, as orthodox scholars will argue hoplites were simply too encumbered to function in such a battlefield. This argument appears in WWoW, along with a call for more archaeology to support it, a call which was answered by the sometimes frustrating E. Jarva, Archaiologia on Archaic Greek Body Armour (1995) but it remains current. The latest attempt I am aware of to renew this argument is part of A. Schwartz, Reinstating the Hoplite (2013), 25-101.
By contrast, the heterodox camp argues that hoplite equipment was not that heavy or cumbersome and could be used outside of the phalanx (and indeed, was so used), but this argument often proceeds beyond this point to argue that hoplite equipment emerged in a fluid, skirmish-like battlefield and was, in a sense, at home in such a battlefield, as part of a larger argument about the phalanx being quite a lot less rigid and organized than the orthodox camp imagines it. Put another way at the extremes the heterodox camp argues there is nothing about hoplite equipment which would suggest it was designed or intended for a close-order, relatively rigid infantry formation. There’s a dovetailing here where this argument also gets drawn into arguments about ‘technological determinism’ – a rejection of the idea that any given form of ancient warfare, especially hoplite warfare, represented a technologically superior way of fighting or set of equipment – which also gets overstated to the point of suggesting weapon design doesn’t particularly matter at all.4
This is one of those areas where I will make few friends because I think both arguments are actually quite bad, a product of scholars who are extremely well versed in the ancient sources but who have relatively less training in military history more broadly and especially in pre-modern military history and especially especially pre-modern arms and armor.
So let me set some ‘ground rules’ about how, generally speaking, pre-modern arms and armor emerge. When it comes to personal combat equipment, (almost) no one in these periods has a military research and development department and equipment is rarely designed from scratch. Instead, arms and armor are evolving out of a fairly organic process, iterating on previous patterns or (more rarely) experimenting with entirely new patterns. This process is driven by need, which is to say arms and armor respond to the current threat environment, not a projection of a (far) future threat environment. As a result, arms and armor tend to engage in a kind of ‘antagonistic co-evolution,’ with designs evolving and responding to present threats and challenges. Within that space, imitation and adornment also play key roles: cultures imitate the weapons of armies they see as more successful and elites often use arms and armor to display status.
The way entire panoplies – that is full sets of equipment intended to be used together – tend to emerge is part of this process: panoplies tend to be pretty clearly planned or designed for a specific threat environment, which is to say they are intended for a specific role. Now, I want to be clear about these words ‘planned,’ ‘designed,’ or ‘intended’ – we are being quite metaphorical here. There is often no single person drafting design documents, rather we’re describing the outcome of the evolutionary process above: many individual combatants making individual choices about equipment (because few pre-modern armies have standardized kit) thinking about the kind of battle they expect to be in tend very strongly to produce panoplies that are clearly biased towards a specific intended kind of battle.
Which absolutely does not mean they are never used for any other kind of battle. The ‘kit’ of an 18th century line infantryman in Europe was designed, very clearly for linear engagements between large units on relatively open battlefields. But if what you had was that kit and an enemy who was in a forest or a town or an orchard or behind a fence, well that was the kit you had and you made the best of it you could.5 Likewise, if what you have is a hoplite army but you need to engage in terrain or a situation which does not permit a phalanx, you do not suffer a 404-TACTICS-NOT-FOUND error, you engage with the equipment you have. That said, being very good at one sort of fighting means making compromises (weight, mobility, protection, lethality) for other kinds of fighting, so two equipment sets might be situationally superior to each other (panoply A is better at combat situation Y, while panoply B is better at situation Z, though they may both be able to do either and roughly equally bad at situation X).

Naturally, in a non-standardized army, the individual combatants making individual choices about equipment are going to be considering the primary kind of battle they expect but also the likelihood that they are going to end up having to fight in other ways and so nearly all real-world panoplies (and nearly all of the weapons and armor they use) are not ultra-specialized hot-house flowers, but rather compromise designs. Which doesn’t mean they don’t have a primary kind of battle in mind! Just that some affordance has been made for other modalities of warfare.
If we apply that model to hoplite equipment, I think it resolves a lot of our quandaries reasonably well towards the following conclusion: hoplite equipment was a heavy infantry kit which was reasonably flexible but seems very clearly to have been intended, first and foremost, to function in close order infantry formations, rather than in fully individual combats or skirmishing.
Now let’s look at the equipment and talk about why I think that, starting with:
Overall Weight.
I am by no means the first person to note that absurdly heavy estimates dating back more than a century for the hoplite’s ‘combat load’ (that is, what would be carried into battle, not on campaign) are absurdly high; you will still hear figures of 33-40kg (72-90lbs) bandied about. These estimates predated a lot of modern archaeology and were consistently too high. Likewise, the first systematic effort to figure out, archaeologically, how heavy this equipment was by Eero Jarva, skewed the results high in a consistent pattern.6 Equally, I think there is some risk coming in a bit low, but frankly low-errors have been consistently less egregious than high-errors.7 Conveniently, I have looked at a lot of this material in order to get a sense of military gear in the later Hellenistic period, so I can quickly summarize and estimate from the archaeology.
Early Corinthian helmets can come in close to 2kg in weight, though later Greek helmets tend much lighter, between 1-1.5kg; we’re interested in the Archaic so the heavier number bears some weight. Greek bronze cuirasses as recovered invariably mass under 4.5kg (not the 4-8kg Jarva imagines), so we might imagine in original condition an upper limit around c. 5.5kg with most closer to 3.5-4.5kg, with probably 1-2kg for liner and pteruges; a tube-and-yoke cuirass in linen or leather (the former was probably more common) would have been only modestly lighter, perhaps 3.5-4kg (a small proportion of these had metal reinforcements, but these were very modest outside of Etruria).8 So for a typical load, we might imagine anywhere from 3.5kg to 6.5kg of armor, but 5kg is probably a healthy median value. We actually have a lot of greaves: individual pieces (greaves are worn in pairs) range from ~450 to 1,100g, with the cluster around 700-800, suggesting a pair around 1.4-1.6kg; we can say around 1.5kg.
For weapons, the dory (the one-handed thrusting spear), tips range from c. 150 to c. 400g, spear butts (the sauroter) around c. 150g, plus a haft that probably comes in around 1kg, for a c. 1.5kg spear. Greek infantry swords are a tiny bit smaller and lighter than what we see to their West, with a straight-edged xiphos probably having around 500g (plus a hundred grams or so of organic fittings to the hilt) of metal and a kopis a bit heavier at c. 700g. Adding suspension and such, we probably get to around 1.25kg or so.9
That leaves the aspis, which is tricky for two reasons. First, aspides, while a clear and visible type, clearly varied a bit in size: they are roughly 90cm in diameter, but with a fair bit of wiggle room and likewise the depth of the dish matters for weight. Second, what we recover for aspides are generally the metal (bronze) shield covers, not the wooden cores; these shields were never all-metal like you see in games or movies, they were mostly wood with a very thin sheet of bronze (c. 0.25-0.5mm) over the top. So you can shift the weight a lot by what wood you use and how thick the core is made (it is worth noting that while you might expect a preference for strong woods, the ancient preference explicitly is for light woods in shields).10 You can get a reconstruction really quite light (as light as 3.5kg or so), but my sense is most come in around 6-7kg, with some as heavy as 9kg.11 A bigger fellow might carry a bigger, heavier shield, but let’s say 6kg on the high side and call it a day.
How encumbered is our hoplite? Well, if we skew heavy on everything and add a second spear (for reasons we’ll get to next time), we come out to about 23kg – our ‘hopheavy.’ If we skew light on everything, our ‘hoplight’ could come to as little as c. 13kg while still having the full kit; to be frank I don’t think they were ever this light, but we’ll leave this as a minimum marker. For the Archaic period (when helmets tend to be heavier), I think we might imagine something like a typical single-spear, bronze-cuirass-wearing hoplite combat load coming in something closer to 18kg or so.12
And now we need to ask a second important question (which is frustratingly rarely asked in these debates – not never, but rarely): is that a lot? What we should not do is compare this to modern, post-gunpowder combat loads which assume very different kinds of combat that require very different sorts of mobility. What we should do is compare this to ancient and medieval combat loads to get a sense of how heavy different classes of infantry were. And it just so happens I am wrapping up a book project that involves computing that, many times for quite a few different panoplies. So here are some brief topline figures, along with the assigned combat role (light infantry, medium infantry, heavy infantry):
Some observations emerge from this exercise immediately. First combat role – which I’ve derived from how these troops are used and positioned in ancient armies, not on how much their kit weighs – clearly connects to equipment weight. There is a visible ‘heavy infantry range’ that starts around 15kg and runs upward, a clear ‘medium’ range of lightly-armored line-but-also-skirmish infantry from around 14kg to about 10kg and then everything below that are ‘lights’ that aren’t expected to hold part of the main infantry line.15
But I’d argue simply putting these weights together exposes some real problems in both the extreme orthodox and extreme heterodox views. On the one hand, the idea that hoplite equipment was so heavy that it could only function in the phalanx is clearly nonsense: the typical hoplite was lighter than the typical Roman heavy infantryman who fought in a looser, more flexible formation! Dismounted knights generally fought as close-order heavy infantrymen, but certainly could fight alone or in small groups and maneuver on the battlefield or over rough terrain and they are heavier still. So the idea that hoplites were so heavily equipped that they must fight in the extremely tight orthodox phalanx (we’ll come to spacing later, but they want these fellows crowded in) is silly.
On the other hand hoplites are very clearly typically heavy infantry. They are not mediums and they are certainly not lights. Can you ask heavy infantrymen to skirmish like lights or ask light infantrymen to hold positions like heavies? Well, you can and they may try; the results are generally awful (which is why the flexible ‘mediums’ exist in so many Hellenistic-period armies: they can do both things not-great-but-not-terribly).16 So do I think soldiers wearing this equipment generally intended to fight in skirmish actions or in truly open-order (note that Roman combat spacing, while loose by Greek standards, is still counting as ‘close order’ here)? Oh my no; across the Mediterranean, we see that the troops who intend to fight like that even a little are markedly lighter and those who specialize in it are much lighter, for the obvious reason that running around in 18kg is a lot more tiring than running around in 8kg or less.
So the typical hoplite was a heavy infantryman but not the heaviest of heavy infantry. If anything, he was on the low(ish) end of heavy infantry, probably roughly alongside Hellenistic peltastai (who were intended as lighter, more mobile phalangites)17 but still very clearly in the ‘heavy’ category. Heavier infantry existed, both in antiquity and in the middle ages and did not suffer from the lack of mobility often asserted by the orthodox crowd for hoplites.
But of course equipment is more than just weight, so let’s talk about the implications of some of this kit, most notably the aspis.
Once again, to summarize the opposing camps, the orthodox argument is that hoplite equipment – particularly the aspis (with its weight and limited range of motion) and the Corinthian helmet (with its limited peripheral vision and hearing) – make hoplites ineffective, almost useless, outside of the rigid confines of the phalanx, and in particular outside of the ‘massed shove othismos‘ phalanx (as opposed to looser phalanxes we’ll get into next time).
The moderate heterodox argument can be summed up as, “nuh uh.” It argues that the Corinthian helmet is not so restricting, the aspis not so cumbersome and thus it is possible to dodge, to leap around, to block and throw the shield around and generally to fight in a more fluid way. The ‘strong’ heterodox argument, linking back to development, is to argue that the hoplite’s panoply actually emerged in a more fluid, skirmish environment and the phalanx – here basically any close-order, semi-rigid formation fighting style – emerged only later, implying that the hoplite’s equipment must be robustly multi-purpose. And to be clear that I am not jousting with a straw man, van Wees claims, “the hoplite shield did not presuppose or dictate a dense formation but could be used to equally good effect [emphasis mine] in open-order fighting.”18
The short version of my view is that the moderate heterodox answer is correct and very clearly so, with both the orthodox and ‘strong’ heterodox arguments having serious defects.
But first, I want to introduce a new concept building off of the way we’ve already talked about how equipment develops, which I am going to call appositeness which we can define as something like ‘situational effectiveness.’ The extreme orthodox and heterodox arguments here often seem to dwell – especially by the time they make it to public-accessible books – in a binary can/cannot space: the hoplite can or cannot move quickly, can or cannot skirmish, can or cannot fight with agility and so on.
But as noted above real equipment is not ‘good’ or ‘bad’ but ‘situationally effective’ or not and I want to introduce another layer of complexity in that this situational effectiveness – this appositeness – is a spectrum, not a binary. Weapons and armor are almost invariably deeply compromised designs, forced to make hard trade-offs between protection, reach, weight and so on, and those tradeoffs are real, meaning that they involve real deterioration of the ability to do a given combat activity. But ‘less’ does not mean ‘none.’ So the question is not can/cannot, but rather how apposite is this equipment for a given function – how well adapted is it for this specific situation.
You can do almost any kind of fighting hoplite armor, but it is very obviously adapted for one kind of fighting and was very obviously adapted for that kind of fighting when it emerged: fighting in a shield wall. And that has downstream implications of course: if the aspis is adapted for a shield wall, that implies that a shield wall already existed when it emerged (in the mid-to-late 8th century). Now we may, for the moment, leave aside if we ought to call that early shield wall a phalanx. First, we ought to talk about why I think the hoplite’s kit is designed for a shield wall but also why it could function (less effectively) outside of it.
So lets talk about the form of the aspis. The aspis is a large round shield with a lightly dished (so convex) shape, albeit in this period with a flat rim-section that runs around the edge. The whole thing is typically about 90cm in diameter (sometimes more, sometimes less) and it is held with two points of contact: the arm is passed through the porpax which sits at the center of mass of the shield and will sit against the inside of the elbow of the wear, and then holds the antelabe, a strap near the edge of the shield (so the wearer’s elbow sits just to the left of the shield’s center of mass and his hand just to the left of the shield’s edge). That explains the size: the shield pretty much has to have a radius of one forearm (conveniently a standard ancient unit called a ‘cubit’) and thus a diameter of two forearms, plus a bit for the rim, which comes to about 90cm.

In construction, the aspis has, as mentioned, a wooden core made of a wood that offers the best strength at low weight (e.g. willow, poplar, not oak or ash) covered (at least for the better off hoplites) with a very thin (c. 0.25-0.5mm) bronze facing, which actually does substantially strengthen the shield. The result is, it must be noted, a somewhat heavy but very stout shield. The dished shape lets the user put a bit of their body into the hollow of the shield and creates a ledge around the rim which sits handily at about shoulder height, allowing the shield to be rested against the shoulder in a ‘ready’ position in situations where you don’t want to put the shield down but want to reduce the fatigue of holding it.
And here is where I come at this question a bit differently from my peers: that description to me demands comparison but the aspis is almost never compared to other similar shields. Two things, however, should immediately stand out in such a comparison. First, the aspis is an unusually, remarkably wide shield; many oblong shields are taller, but I can think of no shield-type that is on average wider than 90cm. The early medieval round shield, perhaps the closest comparison for coverage, averages around 75-85cm wide (with fairly wide variation, mind you), while the caetra, a contemporary ancient round shield from Spain, averages around 50-70cm. The famously large Roman scutum of the Middle Republic is generally only around 60cm or so wide (though it is far taller). So this is a very wide shield.

Second, the two-points-of-contact strap-grip structure is a somewhat uncommon design decision (center-grip shields are, globally speaking, more common) with significant trade-offs. As an aside, it seems generally assumed – mistakenly – that ‘strap-grip’ shields dominated European medieval shields, but this isn’t quite right: the period saw a fair amount of center-grip shields, two-point-of-contact shields (what is generally meant by ‘strap grip’) and off-center single-point of contact shields, with a substantial portion of the latter two supported by a guige or shield sling, perhaps similar to how we generally reconstruct later Hellenistic version of the aspis supported by a strap over the shoulder. So the pure two-point-of-contact porpax-antelabe grip of the aspis is actually fairly unusual but not entirely unique.
But those tradeoffs can help give us a sense of what this shield was for. On the one hand, two points of contact give the user a strong connection to the shield and make it very hard for an opponent to push it out of position (and almost impossible to rotate it): that shield is going to be where its wearer wants it, no matter how hard you are hitting it. It also puts the top of the dish at shoulder level, which probably helps keeping the shield at ‘ready,’ especially because you can’t rest the thing on the ground without taking your arm out of it or kneeling.
On the other hand the two-point grip substantially reduces the shield’s range of motion and its potential to be used offensively. Now this is where the heterodox scholars will point to references in the ancient sources to war dances intended to mimic combat where participants jumped about or descriptions of combatants swinging their shield around and dodging and so on,19 and then on the other hand to the ample supply of videos showing modern reenactors in hoplite kit doing this.20 To which I first say: granted. Conceded. You can move the aspis with agility, you can hit someone with it, you can jump and dodge in hoplite kit. And that is basically enough to be fatal to the orthodox argument here.
But remember our question is appositeness: is this the ideal or even a particularly good piece of equipment to do that with? In short, the question is not ‘can you use an aspis offensively’ (at all) but is it better than other plausible designs at it. Likewise, we ask not ‘can you move the aspis around quickly’ but is it better at that than other plausible designs. And recall above, when the aspis emerged, it had competition: we see other shield designs in early Archaic artwork. There were alternatives, but the aspis ‘won out’ for the heavy infantryman and that can tell us something about what was desired in a shield.
In terms of offensive potential, we’re really interested in the range of strikes you can perform with a shield and the reach you can have with them. For the aspis, the wearer is limited to variations on a shove (pushing the shield out) and a ‘door swing’ (swinging the edge at someone) and both have really limited range. The body of the shield can never be more than one upper-arm-length away from the shoulder (c. 30cm or so)21 so the ‘shove’ can’t shove all that far and the rim of the shield can’t ever be more than a few centimeters in advance of the wearer’s fist. By contrast a center-grip shield can have its body shoved outward to the full extension of the arm (almost double the distance) and its rim can extend half the shield’s length in any direction from the hand (so striking with the lower rim of a scutum you can get the lower rim c. 60cm from your hand which is c. 60cm from your body, while a center-grip round shield of c. 80cm in diameter – smaller than the aspis – can project out 40cm from the hand which is 60cm from the body).
So that two-point grip that gives the shield such stability is dropping its offensive reach from something like 60 or 100cm (shove or strike) to just about 30 or 65cm or so (shove or strike).22 That is a meaningful difference (and you can see it represented visually in the diagram below). Again, this is not to say you cannot use the aspis offensively, just that this design prioritizes its defensive value over its offensive value with its grip and structure.
And then there is the question of coverage. Can you swing an aspis around, left to right, blocking and warding blows? Absolutely. Is it good at that? No. It is not and I am always surprised to see folks challenge this position because have you seen how a center-grip round shield is used? And to be clear, we know the Greeks could have used center-grip shields because center-grip dipylon shields show up in Archaic Greek artwork (though many diplyon shields have the same two-point grip-system as aspides as well): they had the other option and chose not to use it.23 With a two-point porpax-antelabe grip, the aspis‘ center of mass can never be more than an upper-arm’s length (again, c. 30cm) away, which really matters given that the average male might be c. 45cm wide. In practice, of course, it is hard to get an elbow much further than the center of one’s chest and that is basically the limit for how far to the right the center of the aspis can be. Likewise, there’s a real limit to how far you can cock your elbow backwards.
By contrast, the center-point of a center-grip shield can be wherever you fist can be, which is a lot wider of a set of places: you can get a center-grip shield all the way to the far side of your body, you can pull it all the way in to your chest or push your entire arm’s length into the enemy’s space. Moreover, with just a single point of contact, these shields can rotate around your hand. You can see the difference in coverage arcs below which honestly also understates how much easier it is to move a center-group shield into some of these extreme positions because it isn’t strapped to your arm.

So the aspis‘ design has significantly compromised offensive potential, mobility, maneuverability and the range of coverage on the sides. What it gains is a stout design, a very stable grip and an unusually high amount of width and we know they chose these trade-offs because the aspis replaced other shield designs that were present in the Archaic, at least for this kind of combatant (the emerging hoplite). The question then is why and here certainty is impossible because the Greeks do not tell us, but we can approach a plausible answer to the question in two ways: we can ask in what situation would those positive qualities – stoutness, stability and width – be more valuable or we could look at how similar shields (large round shields) are used in other cultures.
A very wide shield that covers a lot of space in which the combatant is not (because it is much wider than the combatant is) is not particularly useful in skirmishing or open-order fighting (cultures that do that kind of fighting tend to drift towards either large oblong shields or small buckler-style shields that don’t waste weight covering area the combatant doesn’t occupy). But that extra width is really handy if the goal is to create an unbroken horizontal line of protection without having to crowd so tightly with your buddies that you can’t move effectively. A hoplite can ‘join shields’ with his mates even with a file width of 90cm, which is certainly closed-order, but not absurdly tight – a Roman with a scutum has to pull in to about 60-65cm of file width to do the same. Where might you value stoutness over mobility or range of motion? Well, under conditions where you expect most strikes to come from a single direction (in front of you), you are more concerned about your ability to meet those strikes effectively than your ability to cover angles of attack that aren’t supposed to be threatened in the first place – such as, for instance, a situation where that space is occupied by a buddy who also has a big shield. In particular, you might want this if you are more worried about having your shield shifted out of position by an enemy – a thing that was clearly a concern24 – than you are about its offensive potential or rapid mobility (or its utility for a shoving match). By contrast, in open order or skirmishing, you need to be very concerned about an attack towards your flanks and a shield which can rapidly shift into those positions is really useful.
What is the environment where those tradeoffs make sense? A shield wall.
Alternately, we could just ask, “what contexts in other societies or other periods do we tend to see large, solid and relatively robust round shields” and the answer is in shield walls. Or we might ask, “where do we see infantry using two-point grip shields (like some kite shields, for instance)” and find the answer is in shield walls. Shields that are like the aspis: robust, either wide, two-point gripped or both and used by infantry (rather than cavalry) tend in my experience to be pretty strongly connected to societies with shield wall tactics.
I thus find myself feeling very confident that the aspis was designed for a shield wall context. Which, given how weapons develop (see above) would suggest that context already existed to some degree when the aspis emerged in the mid-to-late 8th century, although we will leave to next time working out what that might have looked like.
We can think about the Corinthian helmet in similar terms. Victor Davis Hansen, who can only compare Corinthian helmets to modern combat helmets – because again a huge problem in this debate is that both sides lack sufficient pre-modern military comparanda – suggested that hoplites wearing the helmet could “scarcely see or hear” which essentially forced hoplites into a dense formation. “Dueling, skirmishing and hit-and-run tactics were out of the question with such headgear.”25 The heterodox response is to dispute the degree of those trade-offs, arguing that the helmets don’t inhibit peripheral vision or hearing and are not as heavy as the orthodox camp supposes.26 That dispute matters quite a lot because again, as we’ll get to, the ‘strong’ heterodox position is that hoplite equipment didn’t develop for or in a shield-wall formation, but for skirmishing, so if the Corinthian helmet is a bad helmet for skirmishing, that would make its emergence rather strange; we’ll come back to the question of early Archaic warfare later. Strikingly, there is a lot of effort in these treatments to reason from first principles or from other later ancient Greek helmets but the only non-Greek comparandum that is regularly brought up is the open-faced Roman montefortino-helmet – other closed-face helmets are rarely mentioned.


So does the Corinthian helmet limit vision? It depends on the particular design but a general answer is ‘perhaps a bit, but not an enormous amount.’ The eye-slits in original Corinthian helmets (as opposed to sometimes poorly made modern replicas) are fairly wide and the aperture is right up against the face, so you might lose some peripheral vision, but not a very large amount; the Corinthian helmet design actually does a really good job of limiting the peripheral vision tradeoff (but it is accepting a small tradeoff). The impact to hearing is relatively more significant, but what I’ve heard from reenactors more than once is that it only gets bad if you make noise (which then is transmitted through the helmet), but that can include heavy breathing.27 Of course the best evidence that the impact to hearing was non-trivial (even if the wearer is still able to hear somewhat) is that later versions of the helmet feature cutouts for the ears. Breathing itself is a factor here: the width of the mouth-slit varies over time (it tends to close up as we move from the Archaic towards the Classical), but basically any obstruction of the front of the face with a helmet is going to be felt by the wearer when they are engaged in heavy exertion: if you are running or fighting your body is going to feel just about anything that restricts its ability to suck in maximum air.

But those drawbacks simply do not get us to the idea that this was a helmet which could only be used in a tight, huddled formation for the obvious reason that other, far more enclosed helmets have existed at other points in history and been used for a wider range of fighting. 13th century great helms also have no ear cutouts, feature even narrower vision-slits and use a system of ‘breaths’ (small circular holes, typically in patterns) to enable breathing, which restrict breathing more than at least early Corinthian helmets (and probably about the same amount as the more closed-front late types). Visored bascinets, like the iconic hounskull bascinet design likewise lack ear-cut outs, have breaths for air and notably move the eye aperture forward away from the eyes on the visor, reducing the area of vision significantly as compared to a Corinthian helmet. And yet we see these helmets used by both heavy infantry (dismounted knights and men-at-arms) and cavalry in a variety of situations including dueling.28

Which puts us in a similar place as with the aspis: the Corinthian helmet is a design that has made some trade-offs and compromises. It is capable of a lot – the idea that men wearing these were forced to huddle up because couldn’t see or hear each other is excessive (and honestly absurdly so) – but the choice has clearly been made to sacrifice a bit of lightness, some vision, a fair bit of hearing and some breathing in order to squeeze out significantly more face and neck protection (those cheek pieces generally descend well below the chin, to help guard the neck that Greek body armor struggled to protect adequately). That is not a set of compromises that would make sense for a skirmisher who needs to be able to see and hear with maximum clarity and who expects to be running back and forth on the battlefield for an extended period – and indeed, skirmishing troops often forgo helmets entirely. When they wear them, they are to my knowledge invariably open-faced.

Instead, when we see partially- or fully-closed-face helmets, we tend to see them in basically two environments: heavy cavalry and shield walls.29 Some of this is doubtless socioeconomic: the cavalryman has the money for expensive, fully-enclosed helmets while the poorer infantrymen must make do with less. Whereas I think the aspis was clearly developed to function in a shield wall (even though it can be used to do other things) I am less confident on the Corinthian helmet; I could probably be persuaded of the idea this began as a cavalryman’s heavy helmet, only to be adopted by the infantry because its emphasis on face-protection was so useful in the context of a shield wall clashing with another shield wall. What it is very obviously not is a skirmishers helmet.30
As you have probably picked up when it comes to equipment, I find the ‘orthodox’ position unacceptable on almost every point, but equally I find the ‘strong’ heterodox position unpersuasive on every point except the ‘soft’ gradualism in development (the Snodgrass position) which I think has decisively triumphed (some moderate heterodox objections to orthodoxy survive quite well, however). Of the entire debate, this is often the part that I find most frustrating because of the failure of the scholars involved to really engage meaningfully with the broader field of arms-and-armor study and to think more comparatively about how arms and armor develop, are selected and are used.
On the one hand, the idea that the hoplite, in full or nearly-full kit, could function as a skirmisher, “even in full armour, a hoplite was quite capable of moving back and forth across the battlefield in the Homeric manner” or that the kit could be “used to equally good effect in open-order fighting” is just not plausible and mistakes capability for appositeness.31 Hoplite equipment placed the typical hoplite very clearly into the weight-range of ‘heavy infantry,’ by no means the heaviest of heavy infantry (which fatally undermines the ‘encumbered hoplite’ of the orthodox vision) but also by no means light infantry or even really medium infantry except if substantial parts of the panoply were abandoned. Again, I could be sold on the idea that the earliest hoplites were, perhaps, ‘mediums’ – versatile infantry that could skirmish (but not well) and fight in close order (but not well) – but by the early 600s when the whole panoply is coming together it seems clear that the fellows with the full set are in the weight range for ‘heavies.’ We’ll talk about how we might imagine that combat evolving next time.
Moreover, key elements of hoplite equipment show a clear effort to prioritize protection over other factors: shield mobility, offensive potential, a small degree of vision, a larger but still modest degree of hearing, a smaller but still significant degree of breathing, which contributes to a larger tradeoff in endurance (another strike against the ‘skirmishing hoplite’). The environment where those tradeoffs all make sense is the shield wall. Which in turn means that while the ultra-rigid orthodox vision where these soldiers cannot function outside of the phalanx has to be abandoned – they’re more versatile than that – the vision, propounded by van Wees, that the hoplite worked just as well in open-order is also not persuasive.
Instead, it seems most plausible by far to me that this equipment emerged to meet the demands of men who were already beginning to fight in shield walls, which is to say relatively32 close-order formations with mutually supporting33 shields probably already existed when the hoplite panoply began to emerge in the mid- and late-8th century.
And that’s where we’ll go next time: to look at tactics both in the Archaic and Classical periods.
Did they shove?
(No, they did not shove)
A political minute ago, Texas was starting a nationwide range war by redrawing its congressional maps to tilt results in next year’s elections for Republicans to keep majorities for Donald Trump. Texas officials made the gerrymandering goal explicit.
In response, California voters turned out in droves to “fight fire with fire” by redrawing districts for Democrats, and other states were panting hard about what to do.
The politicos now are wondering if it was all a bad dream, or whether this gerrymandering to help Republicans keep the upper hand in Washington in fact will help Democrats.
On Tuesday, three federal court judges in El Paso threw over the redrawing tables, deciding 2-1 that the new maps violated prohibitions on redistricting along racial lines. The new maps had taken mixed-race districts and sought to resort them using voting precincts by race, according to a Justice Department analysis used as evidence.
Under time constraints, Texas officials said immediately that they will file emergency appeals to the Supreme Court – a body that specifically has ruled for political partisanship in redistricting but not race.
“The public perception of this case is that it’s about politics,” U.S. District Judge Jeffrey V. Brown, a Trump appointee, said in the majority opinion, joined by U.S. District Judge David Guaderrama, an Obama appointee. Judge Jerry Smith, a Reagan appointee, dissented in an attack on the rush to issue a decision and the other judges. The 160-page opinion said that “substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 map” and thus was unconstitutional. Judge Jerry Smith, a Reagan appointee, dissented in an attack on the rush to issue a decision and the other judges
In the meantime, Texas must use existing maps without the bias of extra Republican votes, all with practical deadlines that 2026 lines must be in place early next month.
The decision only affects Texas, but the other states considering redrawn maps are listening.
Clearly, the mid-terms have politicians of all stripes unnerved. This month’s elections in several states showed positive results for Democrats and spell trouble for tight majorities in both houses of Congress. Democratic majorities will prove problematic for Trump’s broad policy changes and his aggregation of power.
Trump shows dropping popularity in the face of tariffs and rising prices, health care insurance rate woes, the antagonism to the military aggressiveness of the migrant mass deportation campaign and the Epstein case fallout.
So, Texas acted in August to redraw district lines in expectation that states with yet more registered Republicans might pick up five GOP congressional seats. Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina threatened more pro-Republican districts redraws, Virginia said it may follow with tit-for-tat Democratic districts. Indiana Republicans said the redistricting question was beneath them and defied Donald Trump and JD Vance.
In a show of irony, Trump’s Justice Department has challenged the California redistricting maps in court on similar grounds but with opposite political impact (Three other challenges have been rejected by courts). But redistricting was not ordered by state politicos; it was a ballot measure by voters. In Virginia, proposed changes would be a change in state constitution, not a drawing whim of a partisan legislature.
Democracy Docket, which aligns with Democrats and whose founder represented the successful litigants in Texas, has a useful map and explanations about redistricting. The various moving parts make it difficult to know whether any of the perceived party gains are realistic. Plus, redrawing “safe” districts to create new would-be majority districts necessarily requires diluting the safety margin in the original districts.
But numerically, the Republican push to redistricting for electoral gain in 2026 actually could end up helping Democrats.
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The post Tossing Texas’ Redistricting Maps appeared first on DCReport.org.
My recent research at Stanford University translates the achievement declines into implications for future economic impacts. Past evidence shows clearly that people who know more earn more. When accounting for the impact of higher achievement historically on salaries, the lifetime earnings of today’s average student will be an estimated 8 percent lower than that of students in 2013. Because long-term economic growth depends on the quality of a nation’s labor force, the achievement declines translate into an average of 6 percent lower gross domestic product for the remainder of the century. The dollar value of this lower growth is over 15 times the total economic costs of the 2008 recession.
Here is the full Op-Ed, noting that Eric compares this decline to the effects of an eight percent income tax surcharge. I have not read through this work, though I suspect these estimates will prove controversial when it comes to causality. In any case, file this under “big if true,” if only in expected value terms.
The post Eric Hanushek on the import of schooling quality declines appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

MILAN — The European Space Agency has tapped a consortium led by Thales Alenia Space Italy to develop its Argonaut lunar lander and has outlined a division of labor for the program across several European firms. Thales Alenia Space Italy will act as the Lunar Design Element (LDE) prime contractor and ensure that all subsystems […]
The post ESA unveils Thales Alenia Space-led consortium for its Argonaut lunar lander appeared first on SpaceNews.

Starlab Space has secured funding from an investment group as development of its proposed commercial space station reaches a critical phase.
The post Janus Henderson invests in Starlab Space appeared first on SpaceNews.

A week after successfully launching and landing the current version of New Glenn, Blue Origin announced a series of upgrades to the vehicle.
The post Blue Origin announces New Glenn upgrade plans appeared first on SpaceNews.

Just before I began writing this post, I saw this article from The Washington Post about the rise of billionaires in American politics. Given Bezos’s ownership and the recent shift in its editorial policies I’m mildly surprised they published it. The key points aren’t terribly surprising. But it brings them together in one place — the vast growth in billionaire giving over the first quarter of this century, the rapid trend from a relatively even partisan split to overwhelming giving to Republicans. It is among other things the story of billionaires becoming increasingly class conscious. It’s always been true that money buys influence in American politics. In some ways, it was even greater and more brazen in the past since there wasn’t even the pretense of limits on giving or disclosure.
But the role of billionaire ownership of the political process has not only grown rapidly in recent years. Public recognition of that fact has, too, which has — perhaps paradoxically or perhaps not — spurred the drive for even tighter ownership. It’s no exaggeration to say that the deca-billionaire or even centi-billionaire class — setting aside those who might command a mere few billion dollars — act now as a kind of post-modern nobility, a class which does not rule exclusively but interacts with politics in a fundamentally different way from the rest of society.
This article meshes with a different New York Times article I read yesterday and which I had already planned to mention. It pivots off the big Mohammed bin Salman shindig in Washington. We’re used to the standard story about how Saudi wealth brings all the boys to the yard. That’s still mostly true. This article notes that it’s not quite as true. Or to put it more specifically, bin Salman is actually running tight on cash to finance his genuinely audacious and ambitious plans for his country.
Bin Salman has been running Saudi Arabia for a decade. His rule, whatever its horrors, has been genuinely revolutionary in a Saudi context. It’s a genuine revolution from above. He’s trying to leverage Saudi’s vast oil wealth to build a post-carbon, high-value-add first world future for the country. And a big part of that is not just buying up assets that are still domiciled abroad, like buildings, teams, and equity assets in foreign companies. A lot is supposed to be invested in building new industries, heavily tilted toward tech and emerging technologies, in Saudi Arabia.
But that requires huge sums of money, and the returns from the last decade have been hit or miss at best. There have been a lot of boondoggles that are going nowhere. There’s a futuristic, high-tech robot city in the desert which seemed bogged down in delays and cost overruns. The Times doesn’t make the point quite explicitly but a number of the key investments have been in things that key players think are cool. The sovereign wealth fund’s governor, Yasir al-Rumayyan, has invested a huge amount of money in building an international golf league in part, the Times implies, because he’s super into golf. The article similarly suggests that Saudi’s recent acquisition of a controlling interest in game maker Electronic Arts is in part because bin Salman is hugely into video games.
Saudi Arabia’s attempt to buy its way into a high-tech future not wedded to extraction economies is a complex subject that is far from exhausted by any one article or my limited understanding of the topic. But there’s a common thread between these two articles, and that is the insecurity of ultra-wealth which lurks behind and drives its increasingly aggressive ventures into the political world. It’s a topic I’ve come back to again and again over the years, most notably in a series (“The Brittle Grip”) which started in this post from mid-2012. A major way many of us understand the current moment is as an authoritarian assault on civic democratic government in the United States and indeed around the world. And it’s very much that. But it’s also an effort by those who have had a vast run-up in wealth over the last quarter century wanting to use that wealth to lock in that wealth by the acquisition of direct political power. This is absolutely the arc of the titans of Silicon Valley, almost all of whose leaders have now become either supporters of the oligarchic right or decided to make common cause with it in order to avoid having lawless political power attack them and their assets. This is overwhelmingly driven by the wealth generated by network effects lock-in, which produces vast levels of surplus wealth which look unbreakable by anything but government anti-trust intervention. It is sort of common knowledge, or common assumption, that the current mad dash for the commanding heights of AI represents the final goal of lock-in. Whatever one thinks of AI, it’s critical to see how tightly the Trump White House is allied with the tech companies in clearing the way for the current incumbents to dominate the future AI economy.
None of what I’ve said here is terribly new. But I note it as a way to place back at the center of our attention the insecurity of ultra-wealth as a core driver of our current politics, the tightly bound together mixture of insecurity and aggression which is at the center of everything.
“Carol Sturka”, actress Rhea Seehorn’s fictional protagonist of the new Apple TV series Pluribus, is on Reddit right now — at 12n ET / 9am PT — doing an AMA in character. Sturka is a fantasy novelist, and Apple Books has an 11-page excerpt of her “new” novel Bloodsong of Wycaro. Unclear whether it’s Seehorn writing the in-character responses, but it’s definitely Seehorn in the confirmation photo. Reminiscent of some of the promotional fun Apple has had for Severance.
Both my wife and I are loving Pluribus so far. I highly recommend watching the first episode without even knowing the premise, if you can.
The Steve Jobs Archive:
To mark Toy Story’s 30th anniversary, we’re sharing a never-before-seen interview with Steve from November 22, 1996 — exactly one year after the film debuted in theaters.
Toy Story was the world’s first entirely computer-animated feature-length film. An instant hit with audiences and critics, it also transformed Pixar, which went public the week after its premiere. Buoyed by Toy Story ’s success, Pixar’s stock price closed at nearly double its initial offering, giving it a market valuation of approximately $1.5 billion and marking the largest IPO of 1995. The following year, Toy Story was nominated for three Academy Awards en route to winning a Special Achievement Oscar in March. In July, Pixar announced that it would close its television-commercial unit to focus primarily on feature films. By the time of the interview, the team had grown by 70 percent in less than a year; A Bug’s Life was in production; and behind the scenes, Steve was using his new leverage to renegotiate Pixar’s partnership with Disney.
Kind of a weird interview. The video quality is poor, and whoever was running the camera zoomed in and out awkwardly. It’s like ... just a VHS tape? But it’s also weird in a cool way to get a “new” Steve Jobs interview in 2025, and Jobs, as ever, is thoughtful and insightful. Well worth 23 minutes of your time.
There’s a particularly interesting bit at the end when Jobs discusses how Pixar was half a computer company (with extraordinary technology) and half a movie studio (with extraordinary filmmaking talent), but eventually they had to choose between the two industries for how to pay their employees to motivate them to remain at Pixar. The Hollywood way would be with contracts; the Silicon Valley way would be with stock options. Jobs chose the Silicon Valley path for Pixar.
1. Those semi-new service sector jobs how to get people to leave a cult.
2. What was Alice Munro actually writing about? So often people are writing about themselves.
3. The New Yorker on Paul Collier and Britain.
4. Claims about LLMs and stock returns.
5. Live version of “I Hear a Symphony,” you can skip the thirty second intro.
6. The Harvard endowment’s single biggest public investment is now Bitcoin.
The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [November 14th estimate]From Goldman:
emphasis added
We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +2.7%. [November 19th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on November 21, unchanged from November 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Association of Realtors, a slight decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.8 percent to 4.9 percent. [November 21st estimate]
This is one of the best, most interesting, and most important papers I have seen of late:
Housing affordability has declined sharply in recent decades, leading many younger generations to give up on homeownership. Using a calibrated life-cycle model matched to U.S. data, we project that the cohort born in the 1990s will reach retirement with a homeownership rate roughly 9.6 percentage points lower than that of their parents’ generation. The model also shows that as households’ perceived probability of attaining homeownership falls, they systematically shift their behavior: they consume more relative to their wealth, reduce work effort, and take on riskier investments. We show empirically that renters with relatively low wealth exhibit the same patterns. These responses compound over the life cycle, producing substantially greater wealth dispersion between those who retain hope of homeownership and those who give up. We propose a targeted subsidy that lifts the largest number of young renters above the “giving-up threshold.” This policy yields welfare gains that are 3.2 times those of a uniform transfer and 10.3 times those of a transfer targeted to the bottom 10% of the wealth distribution, while also increasing homeownership rate, raising work effort, and reducing reliance on the social safety net.
That is from Seung Hyeong Lee of Northwestern and Younggeun Yoo of University of Chicago. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The post Some second-order effects of unaffordable housing appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
On the left, construed broadly, we’re worried about things like the constitutional order. Meanwhile, on the right, well, there’s this (boldface mine):
Take the recent flare-up on the right over the online activity of Thomas Crooks, who attempted to kill Trump last year in Butler, Pennsylvania. Ever since the assassination attempt, Republicans have fumed over the FBI saying Crooks left behind only a slim online profile. That made it harder to blame Democrats or any kind of organized leftist network for the shooting. The frustration crested this past week as Tucker Carlson accused law enforcement agencies of systemically covering up, or outright lying to the public about, Crooks’s background.
The anger grew so intense that Kash Patel’s FBI launched a “rapid response” account on X, seemingly aimed in large part at rebutting Carlson. On X, Patel insisted the FBI took the investigation into Crooks seriously.
But as is often the case with conspiracists, a direct attack on a load-bearing belief is not necessarily going to convince proponents that the belief is wrong. On Benny Johnson’s show, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) argued that Crooks was likely “groomed” as part of some CIA mind-control experiment.
CIA mind control. Okey dokey. Don’t worry, it gets dumber:
On Friday, meanwhile, Carlson unveiled what he purported were copies of some of Crooks’s online profiles. The Carlson segment was soon echoed in follow-up reports by the New York Post and InfoWars personality Breanna Morello.
The reporting appears to be mostly nonsense. The Post, for example, makes much of Crooks having an account on the art social-network site DeviantArt to suggest he might have a “furry fetish,” in an attempt to link the assassination attempt to a broader belief in MAGA that crazed furries—people who dress up as animals—are out to kill Trump supporters. But even the Post concludes Crooks isn’t connected to any actual furry art. DeviantArt hosts all kinds of bad art, not just furries!
Complicating matters further, Megyn Kelly claimed Monday that the furry stuff was actually an FBI-planted distraction meant to obscure Carlson’s suggestions that the shooter was recruited by shadowy forces.
When the Republican Party loses power, I just don’t know what we do with this. This is absolutely bonkers, and when the loudest voices in the Republican firmament are this divorced from reality (‘It’s the furries wot done it guv!’), I just don’t know how we have a body politic at all. Because this isn’t a deranged ideology, like racism, it’s just a mass communicable psychotic break.
From Anthropic:
In mid-September 2025, we detected suspicious activity that later investigation determined to be a highly sophisticated espionage campaign. The attackers used AI’s “agentic” capabilities to an unprecedented degree—using AI not just as an advisor, but to execute the cyberattacks themselves.
The threat actor—whom we assess with high confidence was a Chinese state-sponsored group—manipulated our Claude Code tool into attempting infiltration into roughly thirty global targets and succeeded in a small number of cases. The operation targeted large tech companies, financial institutions, chemical manufacturing companies, and government agencies. We believe this is the first documented case of a large-scale cyberattack executed without substantial human intervention.
[…]
The attack relied on several features of AI models that did not exist, or were in much more nascent form, just a year ago:
- Intelligence. Models’ general levels of capability have increased to the point that they can follow complex instructions and understand context in ways that make very sophisticated tasks possible. Not only that, but several of their well-developed specific skills—in particular, software coding—lend themselves to being used in cyberattacks.
- Agency. Models can act as agents—that is, they can run in loops where they take autonomous actions, chain together tasks, and make decisions with only minimal, occasional human input.
- Tools. Models have access to a wide array of software tools (often via the open standard Model Context Protocol). They can now search the web, retrieve data, and perform many other actions that were previously the sole domain of human operators. In the case of cyberattacks, the tools might include password crackers, network scanners, and other security-related software.
• Active inventory climbed 12.6% year over year
The number of homes active on the market climbed 12.6% year-over-year, as the streak of annual gains stretched past two years in length. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 29th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing due to both new listings hitting the market, but mostly listings taking longer to sell in this weak 2025 sales year.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.7% year over year
New listings edged up on an annual basis, the second straight week of gains and a return to more typical levels after last week’s surge. Mortgage rates held in the low 6.2s range last week the low-6% range, which may be enticing some homeowners to make a move.
• The median listing price fell 0.4% year-over-year
he median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 1.0% year-over-year, dropping for the 11th consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.
The canary was revived after being found gasping for breath in the coal mine...
The Washington Post reports this morning:
In reversal, Coast Guard again classifies swastikas, nooses as hate symbols By Hari Raj and Victoria Bisset
"The U.S. Coast Guard issued a new, more stringent policy on hate symbols including the swastika Thursday night, prohibiting “divisive or hate symbols or flags.”
Here's the WaPo's story from yesterday:
U.S. Coast Guard will no longer classify swastikas, nooses as hate symbols
"Though the Coast Guard is not part of the Defense Department, the service has been reworking its policies to align with the Trump administration’s changing tolerances for hazing and harassment within the U.S. military. In September, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed a review and overhaul of those policies, calling the military’s existing standards “overly broad” and saying they jeopardize troops’ combat readiness."
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But viewpoint diversity is alive and well at the CDC: see this from Statnews
Under RFK Jr., CDC reverses course on stance that vaccines don’t cause autism
It’s the latest move by Kennedy and his allies to raise doubts about childhood shots By Chelsea Cirruzzo, Helen Branswell, and Daniel PayneNov
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday publicly reversed its stance that vaccines do not cause autism, over the objections of career staff and counter to years of scientific evidence."

The gravest of all decisions, to go to war, happens without the consent of the people. This is a great flaw in democracy
- by Vincenza Falletti
The post Nano Banana Pro does Marginal Revolution appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. This was at a live event (the excellent Roots of Progress conference), so it is only about forty minutes, shorter than usual. Here is the episode summary:
Blake Scholl is one of the leading figures working to bring back civilian supersonic flight. As the founder and CEO of Boom Supersonic, he’s building a new generation of supersonic aircraft and pushing for the policies needed to make commercial supersonic travel viable again. But he’s equally as impressive as someone who thinks systematically about improving dysfunction—whether it’s airport design, traffic congestion, or defense procurement—and sees creative solutions to problems everyone else has learned to accept.
Tyler and Blake discuss why airport terminals should be underground, why every road needs a toll, what’s wrong with how we board planes, the contrasting cultures of Amazon and Groupon, why Concorde and Apollo were impressive tech demos but terrible products, what Ayn Rand understood about supersonic transport in 1957, what’s wrong with aerospace manufacturing, his heuristic when confronting evident stupidity, his technique for mastering new domains, how LLMs are revolutionizing regulatory paperwork, and much more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: There’s plenty about Boom online and in your interviews, so I’d like to take some different tacks here. This general notion of having things move more quickly, I’m a big fan of that. Do you have a plan for how we could make moving through an airport happen more quickly? You’re in charge. You’re the dictator. You don’t have to worry about bureaucratic obstacles. You just do it.
SCHOLL: I think about this in the shower like every day. There is a much better airport design that, as best I can tell, has never been built. Here’s the idea: You should put the terminals underground. Airside is above ground. Terminals are below ground. Imagine a design with two runways. There’s an arrival runway, departure runway. Traffic flows from arrival runway to departure runway. You don’t need tugs. You can delete a whole bunch of airport infrastructure.
Imagine you pull into a gate. The jetway is actually an escalator that comes up from underneath the ground. Then you pull forward, so you can delete a whole bunch of claptrap that is just unnecessary. The terminal underground should have skylights so it can still be incredibly beautiful. If you model fundamentally the thing on a crossbar switch, there are a whole bunch of insights for how to make it radically more efficient. Sorry. This is a blog post I want to write one day. Actually, it’s an airport I want to build.
And;
COWEN: I’m at the United desk. I have some kind of question. There’s only two or three people in front of me, but it takes forever. I notice they’re just talking back and forth to the assistant. They’re discussing the weather or the future prospects for progress, total factor productivity. I don’t know. I’m frustrated. How can we make that process faster? What’s going wrong there?
SCHOLL: The thing I most don’t understand is why it requires so many keystrokes to check into a hotel room. What are they writing?
What are they writing?
The post My very fun Conversation with Blake Scholl appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.OpenAI:
Early feedback from the pilot has been positive, so we’re expanding group chats to all logged-in users on ChatGPT Free, Go, Plus and Pro plans globally over the coming days. We will continue refining the experience as more people start using it.
That didn’t take long — the initial rollout limited to Japan, New Zealand, Korea, and Taiwan started just three days ago.