Orbex received far less funding than the other four ESA European Launcher Challenge companies after the U.K. deferred a decision on funding allocations.
China could be without emergency launch capability to Tiangong space station for months, leaving no rapid-response option for any new crisis following the Shenzhou-20 incident.
At next year’s World Radiocommunications Conference (WRC-25), governments will face a choice that goes to the heart of how we monitor our warming planet. Some regulators are wondering whether to […]
Projections for the booming space economy often come with trillion-dollar headlines, but the lion’s share of near-term revenue looks destined for just a handful of massive constellations with the funds to invest in vertical integration. It’s relatively slim pickings for the many other manufacturers, launch providers and technology suppliers hoping to ride the wave. Manufacturing […]
This year’s winners represent the best-in-class apps and games
we returned to again and again. We hope you enjoy them as much
as we do.
I did not enjoy all of them as much as Apple did.
Tiimo
iPhone app of the year Tiimo bills itself as an “AI Planner & To-do” app that is designed with accommodations for people with ADHD and other neurodivergences. Subscription plans cost $12/month ($144/year) or $54/year ($4.50/month). It does not offer a native Mac app, and at the end of onboarding/account setup, it suggests their web app for use on desktop computers. When I went to the web app, after signing in with the “Sign in With Apple” account I created on the iPhone app, Tiimo prompted me to sign up for an annual subscription for $42/year ($3.50/month), or monthly for $10 ($120/year). The in-app subscriptions offer a 30-day free trial; the less expensive pay-on-the-web subscriptions only offer a 7-day free trial. The web app doesn’t let you do anything without a paid account (or at least starting a trial); the iOS app offers quite a bit of basic functionality free of charge.
Built to support people who are neurodivergent (and anyone
distracted by the hum of modern life), Tiimo brought clarity to our
busy schedules using color-coded, emoji-accented blocks. The
calming visual approach made even the most hectic days feel
manageable.
It starts by syncing everything in Calendar and Reminders, pulling
in doctor’s appointments, team meetings, and crucial prompts to
walk the dog or stand up and stretch. Instead of dumping it all
into a jumbled list, the app gives each item meaning by
automatically assigning it a color and an emoji. (Tiimo gave us the
option to change the weightlifter emoji it added to our workout
reminders, but its pick was spot on.)
While on the move with coffee in one hand and keys in the other,
we sometimes talked to Tiimo with the Al chatbot feature to add new
tasks or shift appointments. When we felt overwhelmed by our to-do
list, Tiimo kept us laser-focused by bubbling up just high-priority
tasks, while its built-in Focus timer (accessible from any to-do
with a tap) saved us from the pitfalls of multitasking.
But Tiimo really stood out when we faced a big personal project,
like getting our Halloween decorations up before Thanksgiving.
With the help of Al, the app suggested all the smaller tasks
that would get us there: gathering the decorations from the
garage, planning the layout, securing the cobwebs, and doing a
safety check.
Aside from the web app, Tiimo is iOS exclusive, with apps only for iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch. No Android version. It seems to do a good job with native platform integration (Calendar integration is free; Reminders integration requires a subscription). Animations in the app feel slow to me, which makes the app itself feel slow. And, personally, I find Tiimo’s emphasis on decorating everything with emoji distracting and childish, not clarifying.
The app seems OK, but not award-worthy to me. But, admittedly, I’m not in the target audience for Tiimo’s ADHD/neurodivergent focus. I don’t need reminders to have coffee in the morning, start work, have dinner, or to watch TV at night, which are all things Tiimo prefilled on my Today schedule after I went through onboarding. As I write this sentence, I’ve been using Tiimo for five minutes, and it’s already prompted me twice to rate it on the App Store. Nope, wait, I just got a third prompt. That’s thirsty, and a little gross. (And, although I’m not an ADHD expert, three prompts to rate and review the app in the first 10 minutes of use strikes me as contrary to the needs of the easily distracted.)
Essayist
Mac app of the year Essayist bills itself as “The Word Processor designed for Academic Writing” (capitalization verbatim). Subscriptions cost $80/year ($6.67/month) or $10/month ($120/year). Its raison d’être is managing citations and references, and automatically formatting the entire document, including citations, according to a variety of standards (MLA, Chicago, etc.). Quoting from Apple’s own description of Essayist:
Essayist gives you an easy way to organize a dizzying array of
primary sources. Ebooks, podcasts, presentations, and even direct
messages and emails can be cataloged with academic rigor. Using
macOS Foundation Models, Essayist extracts all the key info needed
to use it as a source.
For example, paste a YouTube URL into an entry and Essayist
automatically fills in the name of the video, its publication
date, and the date you accessed it. Drag in an article as a PDF to
have Essayist fill in the title, author, and more — and store the
PDF for easy access. You can also search for the books and journal
articles you’re citing right in the app.
Essayist is a document-based (as opposed to library-based) app, and its custom file format is a package with the adorable file extension “.essay”. The default font for documents is Times New Roman, and the only other option is, of all fonts, Arial — and you need an active subscription to switch the font to Arial. (Paying money for the privilege to use Arial... Jiminy fucking christ. I might need a drink.) I appreciate the simplicity of severely limiting font choices to focus the user’s attention on the writing, but offering Times New Roman and Arial as the only options means you’re left with the choice between “the default font’s default font” and “font crime”. The Essayist app itself has no Settings; instead, it offers only per-document settings.
The app carries a few whiffs of non-Mac-likeness (e.g. the aforementioned lack of Settings, and some lame-looking custom alerts). The document settings window refers to a new document, even after it has been saved with a name, as “Untitled” until you close and reopen the document. Reopened documents do not remember their window size and position. But poking around with otool, it appears to be written using AppKit, not Catalyst. I suspected the app might be Catalyst because there are companion iOS apps for iPhone and iPad, which seem to offer identical feature sets as the Mac app. Essayist uses a clever system where, unless you have a subscription, documents can only be edited on the device on which they were created, but you can open them read-only on other devices. That feels like a good way to encourage paying while giving you a generous way to evaluate Essayist free of charge. There is no Android, Windows, or web app version — it’s exclusive to Mac and iOS.
I’ve never needed to worry about adhering to a specific format for academic papers, and that’s the one and only reason I can see to use Essayist. In all other aspects, it seems a serviceable but very basic, almost primitive, word processor. There’s no support for embedding images or figures of any kind in a document, for example. [Correction: Essayist does support figures, but I missed the UI for how to insert them.]
Detail
iPad app of the year Detail bills itself, simply and to the point, as an “AI Video Editor”. The default subscription is $70/year ($5.83/month) with a 3-day free trial; the other option is to pay $12/month ($144/year) with no free trial. After a quick test drive, Detail seems like an excellent video editing app, optimized for creating formats common on social media, like reel-style vertical videos where you, the creator, appear as a cutout in the corner, in front of the video or images that you’re talking about. The iPhone version seems equally good. The iPad version of Detail will install and run on MacOS, but it’s one of those “Designed for iPad / Not verified for macOS” direct conversions. But they do offer a standalone Mac app, Detail Studio, which is a real Mac app, written using AppKit, which requires a separate subscription to unlock pro features ($150/year or $22/month). Detail only offers apps for iOS and MacOS — no Windows, Android, or web.
When we used Detail to record a conversation of two people sitting
side by side, the app automatically created a cut that looked like
it was captured with two cameras. It zoomed in on one speaker,
then cut away to the other person’s reaction. The app also made it
easy to unleash our inner influencer. We typed a few key points,
and the app’s AI wrote a playful script that it loaded into its
teleprompter so we could read straight to the camera.
Most importantly, Detail helped us memorialize significant life
moments all while staying present. At a birthday party, we propped
an iPad on a table and used Detail to record with the front and
back cameras simultaneously. The result was a split-screen video
with everyone singing “Happy Birthday” on the left and the guest
of honor blowing out the candles on the right. (No designated
cameraperson needed.)
Detail has a bunch of seemingly genuinely useful AI-based features. But putting all AI features aside, it feels like a thoughtful, richly featured manual video editor. I suspect that’s why the AI features might work well — they’re an ease-of-use / automation layer atop a professional-quality non-AI foundation. Basically, Detail seems like what Apple’s own Clips — recently end-of-life’d — should have been. It turns your iPad (or iPhone) into a self-contained video studio. Cool.
Of these three apps — Tiimo on iPhone, Essayist on Mac, and Detail on iPad — Detail appeals to me the most, and strikes me as the most deserving of this award. If I were to start making videos for modern social media, I’d strongly evaluate Detail as my primary tool.
Apple still has no standalone category for AI apps, but all three of these apps emphasize AI features, and Apple itself calls out those AI features in its praise for them. It’s an obvious recurring theme shared by all three, along with their shared monetization strategies of being free to download with in-app subscriptions to unlock all features, and the fact that all three winners are exclusive to iOS and Mac (and, in Tiimo’s case, the web).
Meg James, reporting for The Los Angeles Times (News+ link):
The two companies announced the blockbuster deal early Friday
morning. The takeover would give Netflix such beloved characters
as Batman, Harry Potter and Fred Flintstone.
Fred Flintstone?
“Our mission has always been to entertain the world,” Ted
Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix, said in a statement. “By combining
Warner Bros.’ incredible library of shows and movies — from
timeless classics like Casablanca and Citizen Kane to modern
favorites like Harry Potter and Friends — with our
culture-defining titles like Stranger Things, KPop Demon
Hunters and Squid Game, we’ll be able to do that even better.”
Not sure Squid Game belongs in the same comparison as Citizen Kane, but the Warners library is incredibly deep. Stanley Kubrick’s post-2001: A Space Odyssey films were all for Warner Bros.
Netflix’s cash and stock transaction is valued at about $27.75 per
Warner Bros. Discovery share. Netflix also agreed to take on more
than $10 billion in Warner Bros. debt, pushing the deal’s value to
$82.7 billion. [...] Warner’s cable channels, including CNN, TNT
and HGTV, are not included in the deal. They will form a new
publicly traded company, Discovery Global, in mid-2026.
I don’t know if this deal makes sense for Netflix, but Netflix has earned my trust. Netflix is a product-first company. They care about the quality of their content, their software, their service, and their brand. If you care about the Warner/HBO legacy, an acquisition by Netflix is a much, much better outcome than if David Ellison had bought it to merge with Paramount.
The LA Times article goes on to cite concerns from the movie theater industry, based on Netflix’s historic antipathy toward theatrical releases for its films. Netflix is promising to keep Warner Bros.’s film studio a separate operation, maintaining the studio’s current support for theatrical releases. I hope they do. I grew up loving going to the movies. I still enjoy it, but the truth is I go far less often as the years go on. Movie theaters shouldn’t be a protected class of business just because there’s so much affection and nostalgia for them. If they continue sliding into irrelevance, so be it. That’s how disruption, progress, and competition work.
Kate goes deeper on the new definition of “eve” the Court promulgated to help Republicans hold the House next year. (I don’t think it’ll be enough, but that’s another matter.) They take a principle that has some logic in extreme cases: there needs to be some balance between the merits of a case and potential disruption to an election. But given that we have House elections every two years, one year out cannot be the “eve” of an election. In any case, it’s more evidence of what we already know: we’re dealing with a corrupt Court at war with the Constitution. They do what they need to do to get the result they want. Read Kate.
Dithering is my and Ben Thompson’s twice-a-week podcast — 15 minutes per episode, not a minute less, not a minute more. It’s a $7/month or $70/year subscription, and included in the Stratechery Plus bundle (a bargain). This year our CMS (Passport — check it out) gained a feature that lets us make some episodes free for everyone to listen to on the website. Today’s episode, regarding Alan Dye leaving Apple for Meta, seems like a good one to do that with. (And, once again, this month’s album art serendipitously captures my mood.)
Aaron Tilley and Wayne Ma, in a piece headlined “Why Silicon Valley is Buzzing About Apple CEO Succession” at the paywalled-up-the-wazoo The Information:
Prediction site Polymarket places Ternus’ odds of getting the
job at nearly 55%, ahead of other current Apple executives
such as software head Craig Federighi, Chief Operating Officer
Sabih Khan and marketing head Greg Joswiak. But some people close
to Apple don’t believe Ternus is ready to take on such a
high-profile role, and that could make a succession announcement
unlikely anytime soon, said people familiar with the company.
Nothing in the rest of the article backs up that “some people close
to Apple don’t believe Ternus is ready” claim, other than this, several paragraphs later:
And while his fans believe Ternus has the temperament to be CEO,
many of them say he isn’t a charismatic leader in the mold of a
Jobs. He has also had little involvement in the geopolitical and
government affairs issues that dominate most of Cook’s time these
days. On a recent trip to China, for example, Apple’s new COO,
Sabih Khan, accompanied Cook to some of his meetings.
No one else in the history of the industry, let alone the company, has the charisma of Steve Jobs. And while I think Polymarket has the shortlist of candidates right, I also think they have them listed in the right order. Sabih Khan probably should be considered an outside-chance maybe, but the fact that he accompanied Cook to China doesn’t me make think, for a second, that it’s in preparation to name him CEO. If Kahn were being groomed to become CEO, he’d have started appearing in keynotes already. It’s silly to slag Ternus for not having the charisma of Steve Jobs, when Ternus has been a strong presence in keynotes since 2018, and in the same paragraph suggest Khan as a better option, when Khan has never once appeared in a keynote or public appearance representing Apple.
Some former Apple executives hope a dark-horse candidate emerges.
For example, Tony Fadell, a former Apple hardware executive who
coinvented [sic] the iPod, has told associates recently that he
would be open to replacing Cook as CEO, according to people who
have heard his remarks. (Other people close to Apple consider
Fadell an unlikely candidate, in part because he was a polarizing
figure when he worked at the company. Fadell left Apple in 2010.)
The parenthetical undersells the unlikelihood of Fadell returning to Apple, ever, in any role, let alone the borderline insanity of suggesting he’d come back as Cook’s successor.
It has become one of the strangest succession spectacles in tech.
Typically, the kind of buzz that is swirling around Cook occurs
when companies are performing badly or a CEO has dropped hints
that they’re getting ready to hang up their spurs. Neither applies
in Cook’s case, though.
There’s nothing strange about it. Apple has a unique company culture, but so too do its peers, like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. And just like at those companies, it’s therefore a certainty that Cook’s replacement will come from within the company’s current ranks. Polymarket doesn’t even list anyone other than Ternus, Federighi, Joswiak, and Khan.
As for hints, there is not much need for any hint beyond the fact that Cook is now 65 years old and has been in the job since 2011. But the high-profile multi-source leak to the Financial Times is a pretty obvious fucking additional hint.
Apple today announced that Jennifer Newstead will become Apple’s
general counsel on March 1, 2026, following a transition of duties
from Kate Adams, who has served as Apple’s general counsel since
2017. She will join Apple as senior vice president in January,
reporting to CEO Tim Cook and serving on Apple’s executive team.
In addition, Lisa Jackson, vice president for Environment, Policy,
and Social Initiatives, will retire in late January 2026. The
Government Affairs organization will transition to Adams, who will
oversee the team until her retirement late next year, after which
it will be led by Newstead. Newstead’s title will become senior
vice president, General Counsel and Government Affairs, reflecting
the combining of the two organizations. The Environment and Social
Initiatives teams will report to Apple chief operating officer
Sabih Khan. [...]
Newstead was most recently chief legal officer at Meta and
previously served as the legal adviser of the U.S. Department of
State, where she led the legal team responsible for advising the
Secretary of State on legal issues affecting the conduct of U.S.
foreign relations.
Wednesday’s announcement that VP of design and Liquid Glass frontman Alan Dye is leaving Apple for Meta was a shock, both inside and outside the company. As I wrote this week, I think it’s great news for Apple, but not by plan.
This news yesterday is just typical planned retirements. The timing is slightly unfortunate though. In the eyes of observers unfamiliar with the company, they might be misconstrued as signs of executive upheaval, occurring on the heels of the minor and major dramas of Giannandrea’s and Dye’s departures. The Jackson / Adams / Newstead transitions announced yesterday are nothing of the sort.
Jackson had a very nice run at Apple and carved out a rather unique position within the company. Apple’s environmental efforts expanded tremendously under her leadership. I’ve never met anyone with a bad word to say about her, and in my own interactions, found her downright delightful.
As for Adams, the responsibilities of Apple’s general counsel are generally far afield from my interests. The only two times I’ve mentioned her at DF were when she got the job in 2017, and a passing reference when the FBI sent a letter to Apple, addressed to Adams, in 2020 regarding the locked phone of a mass shooter in Pensacola, Florida. That’s a sign of a good run for a general counsel — it’s a job where no news is good news.
Lastly, I wouldn’t read anything into Newstead coming to Apple by way of Meta. But it is a bit funny that it was announced the day after Dye left Apple for Meta. She seems to have an excellent wide-ranging background to spearhead Apple’s government affairs. Her stint in the State Department was during the first (now seemingly sane) Trump administration, but she clerked for liberal Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer.
“I drew a picture of me taking bribes!” “Very good Donald, you’ll be allowed to do that soon enough.” (Official White House Photo by Andrea Hanks)
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On Thursday, the Supreme Court offered the latest in its ongoing series of shocking-but-not-surprising rulings, this one giving its stamp of approval to Texas’ vulgar redistricting, which the state undertook at President Trump’s instruction. As usual, the decision was judicial Calvinball, made according to an ever-changing set of rules trotted out in order to achieve the singular end to which the Court is devoted: Republicans Always Win.
When this happens, one of the court’s three liberals writes an angry dissent, people like me pen outraged op-eds, some Democrats in Congress say they’re deeply troubled by the decision, and nothing much changes. In the short run, nothing much can. But this Court has created a crisis, and Democrats need to start thinking about how they’re going to solve it.
The solution has to come from all levels, both the grassroots and elected Democrats. Pressure needs to be built so that when the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating contest begins (it will commence immediately after the 2026 midterms), all the candidates feel compelled to take serious, aggressive stands in favor of dramatic and sweeping.
Not with expressions of deep concern, and not with a promise to appoint a commission to study the issue. Joe Biden appointed a commission — do you remember it? You don’t, because the members very sincerely did their work, and then Biden ignored it for two and a half years, until he released a “plan” for court reform a week after he withdrew from the 2024 race.
No more of that. Democratic voters have to force their candidates to embrace real, aggressive Supreme Court reform. That means not only coming up with a plan (including, most likely, term limits and court expansion) but being unrestrained in how they talk about these six villains who are destroying our democracy. They are every bit as much of a threat to what we hold dear as Donald Trump is, but if Democrats won’t say so, they can’t sow the ground for the reform that is so terribly necessary.
The redistricting case
Let’s spend a moment on the redistricting case, because while it may not be the most appalling thing this court has ever done, it’s illustrative of the way it operates and why it must be reined in — and it’s one more step toward the realization of the goal that has animated Chief Justice John Roberts’ entire career, the eventual destruction of the Voting Rights Act.
After its trial, the district court ruled that in pursuing its aim of maximizing the number of Republican House seats, the Texas legislature violated the Constitution and clear Supreme Court precedent. The legislature set out to break up “coalition districts” that include a majority made up of multiple racial groups into separate Black districts (which will vote Democratic) and Hispanic districts (which they believe will vote Republican, though this may or may not turn out to be true). This, the district court found, was an explicit racial gerrymander and therefore illegal.
But the six conservative justices decided to toss the district court’s extensive fact-finding in the trash, for one reason only: It didn’t produce the result they wanted. In three snide paragraphs, Justice Samuel Alito dismissed the 160-page district court ruling, for two absurd reasons. First, Alito wrote, “the District Court failed to honor the presumption of legislative good faith” on the part of Texas Republicans. That is simply bogus; rather than relying solely on anyone’s good faith, the district court examined the evidence at length, and judged accordingly. Second, said Alito, the district court supposedly erred by rejecting the new map, which no one has ever voted under, “on the eve of an election,” i.e. an election that is 11 months away.
This is called the “Purcell principle,” which begins from the quite reasonable idea that courts should refrain from changing the rules of elections, including district lines, right before an election takes place. But in practice, Purcell has become an infinitely flexible tool that the conservatives apply or ignore at their whim. If a change in the rules will benefit Democrats, Purcell is deployed to strike it down, no matter how far away the next election actually is. If the change will benefit Republicans, no matter how close the election is, Purcell is placed gently back into its scabbard, and the changes are allowed. But in this case, the Court deployed Purcell to force a change — a new map, rather than the one that has been in place since 2021 — while claiming it was doing exactly the opposite.
The Supreme Court is out of control, and Democrats have to say so
That’s how this Court operates; there are dozens of other cases to illustrate the point, up to and including the case in which it granted Donald Trump, far and away the most corrupt president to ever occupy the Oval Office, the right to do all the crimes he wants. But most critically for the future, the court has created a set of principles and tools meant for itself to use to achieve the policy goals it wants. Purcell is one; the end of “Chevron deference,” which previously said that federal agencies can decide how to apply statues, is another; the “major questions doctrine,” which they invented out of whole cloth, is a third. The mother of them all is “originalism,” which states that any law’s constitutionality is determined by whether a right-wing justice’s law clerk can find a quote from the Federalist Papers or a bill considered in the Virginia House of Burgesses in 1750 that seems to support whatever outcome the conservatives want.
The six conservatives have deployed these tools again and again to advance the interests of the Republican Party and their own policy preferences. Precedents have no bearing, the plain text of statutes has no meaning, and their own authority has no limit. They are out of control, and their reign of judicial terror must come to an end.
Any Democrat who says “Voters don’t really care about this stuff” needs a good smack in the head. The answer to that problem is to make them care. Republicans do this all the time; if they have something they wish was on the agenda, they force it on the agenda, no matter how ridiculous it is or how removed it is from people’s lives. How many Americans cared five years ago about whether some middle school trans kid a hundred miles from where they live wanted to play softball? But they care about it now, because Republicans made them care.
Democrats need to do the same with the Supreme Court — loudly, angrily, personally, relentlessly. If they don’t, the next Democratic president is utterly screwed. That president is going to have an extraordinarily challenging job before them, perhaps the most difficult since FDR took office in 1933. Trump will have left the federal government in ruins, and rebuilding it will take years — and a kind of urgent, vigorous exercise of authority that goes against Democrats’ inclinations toward caution and consensus. If and when that Democrat gets down to the business of rebuilding, the Court’s conservatives are going to do everything in their power to sabotage that effort. Without court reform, four years later that Democrat will be considered a failure, and another Republican will take office to continue Trump’s work of destruction.
Avoiding the practicality trap
If Democratic candidates do what I’m suggesting, they will immediately be met with a particular response, both from centrists within their party and from the elite news media. Shifting attention from the crisis the Court has created, they will descend upon the aggressive Democrats advocating court reforms with questions about practicality. Surely you’re being unrealistic, they’ll say, fingers wagging furiously at this naïve, pie-in-the-sky notion.
We saw this vividly in 2020 with the debate Democrats had about health care. The party’s constituents were eager for progress, not just to shore up the Affordable Care Act but to create genuinely universal (and affordable) coverage. Even the “moderates” in the race, including Joe Biden, presented plans far more progressive than the ACA itself. But those who advocated some form of single-payer, especially Bernie Sanders, were buried under an avalanche of “But how would you pay for it???” scolding, the kind of question never asked of anything Republicans propose except in the most perfunctory way.
This is how establishment media respond to any sign of vigor on the part of Democrats, by using their own instincts toward seriousness against them, and it’s what they’ll do when Democrats advocate court reform. Can you get the votes in Congress? Isn’t it going to be complicated? Won’t it cause confusion? The answer is not to just ignore any question of practicality, but to always shift the debate back to the villainy of this Supreme Court and the need to stop them. There are plenty of reform proposals out there, and they’re perfectly practical; Congress can change the size of the court (as it has done many times before), impose term limits, and much more. All that’s necessary is the will to do it.
That will can be created, if Democrats are willing to push hard enough. But they have to start now.
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Long ago, probably in a long-forgotten hotel room, I watched a 1974 movie called The Internecine Project — now available, as you’ll see if you follow the hyperlink, on YouTube. In truth, it’s a pretty bad movie. But what made it memorable was the unusual nature of the villain, played by James Coburn: An evil, murderous chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers. Yes, you read that correctly – an evil, murderous chair of the CEA.
In the opening scene, Coburn is on a talk show, being quizzed about the high rate of inflation. He responds that people shouldn’t be upset about rising prices, because their incomes are rising even faster. Presumably the scriptwriters intended this to show how smarmy and cynical he is.
And that’s why Donald Trump won the 2024 election. No, Democrats didn’t lose because they use big words, or advocate for open borders, or talk too much about trans rights. None of those things actually happened to any significant degree, regardless of what Trump or the self-defeating wing of the Democratic Party says. They lost because Americans were angry about higher prices and not mollified by the fact that most people’s wages had risen more than overall consumer prices. In this coming Sunday’s primer, I’ll talk more about the underlying economics of the affordability issue, and in the following primer I’ll talk about specific strategies for Democrats to adopt to address it.
But what I want to focus on today is the politics of affordability. As current polls show, swing voters are increasingly blaming Trump, rather than Biden, for the cost of living. And the public’s ire is likely to get worse for the Republicans as time goes on.
In the summer of 2024, as Trump was lagging in the polls behind Kamala Harris, he began to repeatedly and explicitly promise not simply to reduce inflation but to deliver large declines in consumer prices: “Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down.” Although economists warned that there was no way he could deliver on those promises, enough voters believed him to swing the election.
Now that Trump has in fact utterly failed to deliver, those voters — especially those Black and Latino voters who believed him — have swung back to the Democrats with a vengeance:
Trump is handling this reversal with his usual style and grace: in the past few days he has repeatedly called affordability a “hoax” and a “con job.” According to Axios, he’s planning a nationwide retribution tour to convince voters that things are going great and that they’re wrong to be so down on the economy. Democratic strategists must be rubbing their hands with glee.
And if you are one of those Republicans reconsidering your future career options, know that things are going to get worse. A lot worse.
Lately I’ve been revisiting the work of the political scientist Suzanne Mettler. Mettler asked why so many people who are dependent on government social programs vote for conservatives who want to slash those programs. She focused in particular on Kentucky, where 28 percent of the population is covered by Medicaid, yet which gave Trump a more than 30 point margin last year.
My quick summary of Mettler’s analysis emphasizes two points. First, many people who benefit from government social programs don’t actually think of them as social programs. This is true not only for implicit aid like the tax exemptions for mortgage interest payments and employer-provided health insurance, but also for explicit aid programs like Medicare and Social Security. What Mettler documented is that many people who depend on government benefits don’t consider them “benefits” but rather something they’ve earned.
Second, Mettler documented that recipients of means-tested government benefits such as Medicaid and food stamps are relatively poor, less educated, and often fail to vote.
I will add a third point: Most Americans aren’t close followers of policy debates. Telling them how an election promise is likely to affect their future benefits simply doesn’t register for most people. Instead, there has be a clear demonstration of the policy change before it is made real to them. Take the example of Obamacare, which was famously unpopular before it went into effect. But once people experienced the benefits of Obamacare it went on to garner very strong public support. Furthermore, most people don’t mobilize in support of popular programs until it’s very obvious that they’re under imminent threat. Trump’s anti-Obamacare rhetoric during the 2016 campaign didn’t appear to hurt him, but his actual attempt to kill the program in 2017 helped Democrats win big in the 2018 midterms.
Which brings us to the health care earthquake that’s soon to hit — an earthquake that, based on my read of Mettler, is going to inflict significant political damage on the Republicans.
For those who haven’t been keeping up: The Affordable Care Act requires that health insurance companies offer the same policies to everyone, with no discrimination based on pre-existing conditions. It also provides significant subsidies to help people pay insurance premiums — specifically, limiting the amount families have to pay out of pocket as a percentage of their income — with the subsidies on a sliding scale based on income. These subsidies have an important secondary benefit: They encourage even healthy people to buy insurance, which improves the risk pool and therefore holds overall premiums down.
Mandatory disclaimer for liberals: Yes, it would be much simpler just to have single-payer healthcare, paid for with progressive taxes. But that wasn’t politically possible when Obamacare was created, and it still isn’t. Obamacare was more or less the best we could get.
As originally drafted, however, Obamacare was underpowered and underfinanced. Insurance was still hard for many Americans to afford, even with the subsidies. And there was an upper income limit for the subsidies: you still received substantial support as long as your income was less than four times the poverty line, but as soon as you crossed that line all support was cut off. This is the kind of “notch” everyone who studies tax and benefit policy is adamant that you want to avoid.
So in 2021 the Biden administration enhanced the subsidies. Out of pocket payments were reduced for everyone. And the “notch” was eliminated: maximum premium payments as a percentage of income were capped no matter how high one’s income was, although this limit wasn’t relevant for the truly affluent.
But the legislation providing these enhanced subsidies expires at the end of this month. And Republicans in Congress are adamantly opposed to maintaining them. Even Trump has pleaded with his party to agree to a temporary extension, but seems to be getting nowhere. Visceral GOP dislike for anything that helps ordinary Americans may be partly to blame. Moreover, bolstering the ACA would be an implicit admission by the Republicans that they have been wrong all along about health care.
So let’s think about the politics of what’s about to happen: Millions of Americans are about to see a sudden rise in health care costs — not a hypothetical future rise, but a sudden jump on January 1.
Almost all ACA enrollees will be paying more. However, the really huge premium increases will fall on older Floridians who are relatively well off — that is, those with incomes above the maximum allowable to receive subsidies. According to Gaba, these people are likely to see their insurance bills rising by more than $2500 a month — more than $30,000 a year! And these people, unlike many Medicaid or food stamp beneficiaries, have a high propensity to vote.
This ACA premium shock will hit as other forces are exacerbating the sense of crisis over affordability. Businesses are starting to fully pass onto consumers the cost of Trump’s tariffs. Electricity prices are soaring as data centers inflict the cost of their enormous power demands on consumers. In addition, Trump’s deportation policies are increasing the cost of food.
Trump may believe that affordability is a con job, but it isn’t. It’s going to hit him and his allies hard. And it couldn’t happen to a more deserving group of people.
I'm a big user of the pytest.mark.parametrize decorator - see Documentation unit tests from 2018 - so I thought it would be interesting to try out subtests and see if they're a useful alternative.
When analyzing the macro situations of countries or regions, I place more stress than many people do on the following two factors:
1. Human capital: How much active, ambitious talent is there? And how high are the averages and medians?
2. Matching market demands: Are you geared up to produce what the market really wants, export markets or otherwise?
Those may sound trivial, but in relative terms they remain undervalued. They are, for instance, the biggest reasons why I do not buy “the housing theory of everything.”
They are also, in my view, the biggest reasons why the UK currently is in economic trouble. Both #1 (brain drain) and #2 have taken a hit in recent times. The UK continues to deindustrialize, business consulting is not the future, and London as a financial centre was hurt by 2008, Brexit, and superior innovations elsewhere. More and more smart Brits are leaving for the US or Dubai.
You also will notice that #1 and #2, when they are in trouble, are not always easily fixed. That is why reforms, while often a good idea, are by no means an easy or automatic way out of trouble.
These two factors also are consistent with the stylized fact that growth rates from the previous decade are not so predictive of growth rates for the next decades. Human capital often drives levels more than growth rates. And matching market demands often has to do with luck, or with shifting patterns of demand that the supplying country simply cannot match. Once people abandon Toyotas for Chinese electric cars, Japan does not have an easy pivot to make up the loss.
Most other theories of growth rates, for instance those that assign a predominant weight to institutions, predict much more serial correlation of growth rates than we find in the data. That said, institutions do indeed matter, and in addition to their usual effects they will shape both #1 and #2 over the longer run.
Overall, I believe conclusions would be less pat and economic understandings would be more effective if people paid greater attention to these factors #1 and #2. Not putting enough weight on #1 and #2 is one of the biggest mistakes I see smart people — and indeed very smart people — making.
Addendum: You will note the contributions of Fischer Black here. Apart from his contributions to options pricing theory, which are widely known, he remains one of the most underrated modern economists.
Oregon loves to talk climate action, but when it comes to actually reducing transportation emissions—the state’s largest source of greenhouse gases—it’s failing spectacularly. Portland metro area transportation emissions have increased 0.8 percent annually over five years, even as the state’s official goal calls for cutting them by more than five percent per year.
The culprit? A decade of wildly optimistic assumptions. When Oregon’s Land Conservation and Development Commission set targets in 2009, planners bet heavily on technology: cleaner cars, rapid electrification, consumers ditching SUVs for efficient vehicles. Every single assumption proved wrong. Americans are keeping their gas-guzzlers longer, buying bigger trucks and SUVs, and adopting electric vehicles at a crawl.
The 2009 rules wisely required a reality check every four years. That moment arrived December 5, when LCDC was supposed to reckon with these failures and adjust course. Instead? Staff recommended essentially no changes to targets that are already being missed by miles.
This is policy malpractice dressed up as climate leadership—making ambitious long-term pledges while ignoring present-day failure. With each passing year of inaction, the remaining window to address climate change shrinks. Oregon needs honest accounting and aggressive course correction, not more aspirational targets destined to be ignored.
Must Read
Time for foundations to hold grantees accountable for NIMBY lobbying. In many ways, one of the biggest problems confronting the US–and a key cause of homelessness–is growing housing unaffordability, which is closely associated with local land use restrictions. A wave of reformers have tried to push back against the “Not in My Backyard (NIMBY) opposition, to make it easier to build more housing, to increase supply, lower rents, and improve affordability. But along the way, they’ve run into widespread opposition from ostensibly “progressive” groups, that have taken the side of anti-housing groups. Nate Resnikoff, writing in Inside Philanthropy argues that these groups have benefited significantly from foundation funding, from many of the foundations that purport to care about poverty and affordability. Resnikoff reports that
. . . at least $260 million in funding by 15 major foundations since 2018 to nonprofits across California that have actively opposed pro-housing legislation in recent years.
Resnikoff offers the example of Oakland’s PolicyLink, which has gotten tens of millions in grants from the Ford Foundation, the California Endowment and other donors. PolicyLink has produced NIMBY-themed communications materials like a “Housing Justice Narrative Toolkit” which downplays any role for increasing housing supply as a way to deal with affordability and homelessness. PolicyLink opposed key YIMBY legislation (making it easier to build more housing) because it was a “trickle-down, market-based model>
As Resnikoff writes, anti-YIMBY nonprofits in California
. . . continue to argue that legalizing more housing production in high-cost cities will actually raise rents, despite — again — the large and continually growing body of evidence to the contrary. This was part of the grounds for their opposition to SB 79, a 2025 bill that legalizes denser housing construction near transit. No fewer than 29 nonprofits — including Strategic Actions for a Justice Economy (SAJE) (the recipient of at least $4.64 million from large foundations since 2018) and Public Advocates (which has received grants from top California foundations that include the Hewlett Foundation, the Silicon Valley Community Foundation and The California Endowment) — cosigned a letter opposing the bill.
Pennies for streetcars get scrutiny, billions for freeway widening get a free pass. In Milwaukee, there’s a stark contrast between two proposed transportation expenditures. One the city’s $4 million or so annual subsidy to cover the operating costs of Milwaukee’s “Hop” streetcar line. The other is the state highway department launching a multi-year, multi-billion dollar project to widen I-94, that’s likely to disrupt traffic (and business) for the next eight years or more. If it stays on budget–as few such projects do–The I-94 East West widening will cost $1.7 billion to widen about 3.5 miles of freeway (a mere $500 million per mile). Local columnist Dan Schaefer writes that while one—the streetcar—is hotly debated in the City Council, the highway widening gets hardly a mention.
If I tell you they’re going to be spending billions to widen a highway in America, nobody panics because it’s all part of the plan. Spend a miniscule fraction of that on a light rail project and everybody loses their mind.
He quotes a recent letter to the editor in the city’s paper of record as emphasizing this point:
“Wisconsin, despite occasional detours into “alternative transit,” has wisely charted a course for true progress: adding lanes. The wisdom of this choice manifests itself all around us. Just look at the flawless, free-flowing utopias of Los Angeles, Chicago and Atlanta, where traffic congestion was solved decades ago.”
There’s a deep double standard in most discussions of transportation policy, with expensive and perennially ineffective spending on roads meriting no serious discussion, while even modest efforts to provide alternatives are put under a microscope.
New Knowledge
Demand destruction and community revival: the Hammersmith Bridge. Long-time readers of City Observatory will know the story of induced travel (that adding more road capacity simply elicits more travel, and does nothing to reduce congestion). They’ll likely also know the story of traffic evaporation (the opposite effect: when road capacity is abruptly reduced, travel also quickly declines. A new, and very nuanced story from London shows how traffic flows, business activity, and community well-being changes when a major transport artery is severed.
In April 2019, city officials closed the Hammersmith Bridge in London, after finding serious cracks in the bridge’s more than century-old cast iron support members.
As is so often the case, the closure prompted predictions of carmaggedon: a combination of tortuous traffic jams and delays, and lasting economic damage to nearby businesses because of the loss of accessibility. The bridge has been closed to vehicles since 2019, but despite dire predictions of economic dislocation, nothing like that has happened. In fact, traffic patterns and the local economy have evolved in ways that are surprising.
When the bridge closed, about 25,000 vehicles crossed it daily and (Transport for London) TfL predicted a severe economic impact.
Six years later, 9,000 of those journeys have vanished – not diverted to other crossings, but simply evaporated. Yet the local economy has adapted, air quality has improved, and overall traffic congestion has lessened.
This counterintuitive outcome begs the question: are we actually solving the right problem?
The closure of the bridge quickly prompted changes in commuting patterns, and significantly, did not aggregate economic damage to nearby neighborhoods. Charge card data showed that consumer spending in the local area increased faster than in the rest of London, driven mostly by increased patronage for local-serving retailers. None of this is to say that closing bridges is panacea, but the experience here shows that urban systems are much more resilient and adaptable than we generally think and that many trips get taken simply because there’s transport capacity to provide the trip.
In the News
Leslie Carlson, of In Common Agency and City Observatory’s Joe Cortright co-authored an op-ed in the Portland Business Journal on the role that popular protests have played in reviving Portland’s civic spirit. This fall, Portland residents have met masked, armed federal ICE paramilitaries sent to the city based on false Presidential claims that the city was war torn with a combination of absurdity and joy, in the process providing global symbol for protest. It’s something to build on.
For years, many in the business community have lamented rising office vacancies and lagging foot traffic on downtown streets. Between Portland’s joyful protests at the ICE facility and our “No Kings” marchers, we have begun to reverse this trend, giving millions of people across the globe a glimpse of what makes our city great, while bringing tens of thousands of people downtown.
For decades, Oregon has acknowledged the reality of climate change, and repeatedly pledged to do something about it. Sadly, though, when it comes to the single largest source of greenhouse gases in the state, transportation emissions, Oregon is losing ground: rather that cutting back emissions robustly as it has pledged to do since 2007, transportation greenhouse gases continue to increase.
Data gathered by ClimateTrace.org shows that over the past five years, transportation related greenhouse gas emissions in the Portland metropolitan area (Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington Counties) have increased from 8.2 million metric tons to about 8.5 million metric tons about 0.8 percent per year. In contrast, Oregon’s adopted goal for reducing transportation greenhouse gas emissions is for them to fall by more than five percent per year.
All this is particularly important today, because the state land use planning agency, the Land Conservation and Development Commission, is discharging its mandated duty to take a look at how well state efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions gas emissions) is working. The 2009 Legislature directed LCDC and to come up with measures to improve land use planning to reduce car dependence and contribute to state efforts to deal with climate change by planning for more compact development that lowers vehicle miles of travel (and thereby greenhouse gas emissions).
At the time the state first adopted rules, there was considerable uncertainty about the path of future technology: would cleaner cars, cleaner fuel, and vehicle electrification drive down per mile emissions enough to lower transportation greenhouse gases on their own, or would additional efforts to reduce emissions by lowering vehicle miles traveled (VMT) be necessary. In adopting its rules a decade ago, LCDC made some heroic assumptions: the technology would steadily improve, that consumers would rapidly replace old, dirty vehicles with newer, cleaner ones, that the vehicle fleet would shift to smaller, more efficient cars, rather than larger, dirtier trucks and SUVs, and that much of the fleet would be electrified. Then, based on those assumptions, LCDC determined that localities around the state should plan to reduce VMT to make up the rest of the needed reduction in greenhouse gases from transportation.
Unfortunately, virtually every assumption about cleaner cars, cleaner fuel, and less driving has proven to be wrong, and has consistently over-estimated emission reductions. Owners are holding on to dirty old cars even longer than before; new cars tend to be larger, less efficient trucks and SUVs; relatively few cars are electric.
The upshot of all of these wrong assumptions is that the state is not just making less progress than hoped; rather total transportation emissions are increasing. In short, the policy is failing.
To their credit, the architects of Oregon’s strategy recognized that their assumptions about future technology trends were, at best, speculative. And, as a result, they prescribed a requirement that LCDC look every four years to see whether the targets they set for to guide land use planning still made sense in light of actual progress. That issue comes before the Land Conservation and Development Commission on December 5. Unfortunately, the commissions staff report simply ignores all of these many shortcomings, and proposes essentially no changes to the adopted targets.
It’s easy to pledge that, decades from now, you’ll do things to reduce greenhouse gases. Oregon has done this for decades. Much of the time that was available to address this problem in a serious way has already passed. The failure to honestly acknowledge how little progress we’ve made, and how large is the task before us, makes a mockery of the state’s earnest pledge.
That was when I said "what’s context at inference time is valuable training data if it’s recorded."
But I left it at that, and didn’t really get into why training data is valuable.
I think we often just draw a straight arrow from “collect training data,” like ingest pages from Wikipedia or see what people are saying to the chatbot, to “now the AI model is better and therefore it wins.”
But I think it’s worth thinking about what that arrow actually means. Like, what is the mechanism here?
Now all of this is just my mental model for what’s going on.
With that caveat:
To my mind, the era-defining AI company is the one that is the first to close two self-accelerating loops.
Both are to do with training data. The first is the general theory; the second is specific.
Training data for platform capitalism
When I say era-defining companies, to me there’s an era-defining idea, or at least era-describing, and that’s Nick Srnicek’s concept of Platform Capitalism(Amazon).
It is the logic that underpins the success of Uber, Facebook, Amazon, Google search (and in the future, Waymo).
these companies create a marketplace that brings together buyers and sellers
they gather data about what buyers want, what sellers have, how they decide on each other (marketing costs) and how decisions are finalised (transaction costs)
then use that data to (a) increase the velocity of marketplace activity and (b) grow the marketplace overall
thereby gathering data faster, increasing marketplace efficiency and size faster, gathering data faster… and so on, a runaway loop.
Even to the point that in 2012 Amazon filed a patent on anticipatory shipping in 2012(TechCrunch) in which, if you display a strong intent to buy laundry tabs, they’ll put them on a truck and move them towards your door, only aborting delivery if you end up not hitting the Buy Now button.
And this is also kinda how Uber works right?
Uber has a better matching algorithm than you keeping the local minicab company on speed dial on your phone, which only works when you’re in your home location, and surge pricing moves drivers to hotspots in anticipation of matching with passengers.
And it’s how Google search works.
They see what people click on, and use that to improve the algo which drives marketplace activity, and AdSense keyword cost incentivises new entrants which increases marketplace size.
So how do marketplace efficiency and marketplace size translate to, say, ChatGPT?
ChatGPT can see what success looks like for a “buyer” (a ChatGPT user).
They generate an answer; do users respond well to it or not? (However that is measured.)
So that usage data becomes training data to improve the model to close the gap between user intent and transaction.
Right now, ChatGPT itself is the “seller”. To fully close the loop, they’ll need to open up to other sellers and ChatGPT itself transitions to being the market-maker (and taking a cut of transactions).
This is the template for all kinds of AI app products: anything that people want, any activity, if there’s a transaction at the end, the model will bring buyers and sellers closer together – marketplace efficiency.
Also there is marketplace size.
Product discovery: OpenAI can see what people type into ChatGPT. Which means they know how to target their research way better than the next company which doesn’t have access to latent user needs like that.
So here, training data for the model mainly comes from usage data. It’s a closed loop.
But how does OpenAI (or whoever) get the loop going in the first place?
With some use cases, like (say) writing a poem, the “seed” training data was in the initial web scrape; with shopping the seed training data came as a result of adding web search to chat and watching users click on links.
But there are more interesting products…
How do product managers triage tickets?
How do plumbers do their work?
You can get seed training data for those products in a couple ways but I think there’s an assumption that what happens is that the AI companies need to trick people out of their data by being present in their file system or adding an AI agent to their SaaS software at work, then hiding something in the terms of service that says the data can be used to train future models.
I just don’t feel like that assumption holds, at least not for the biggest companies.
Alternate access to seed training data method #1: just buy it.
We’ve also taught ChatGPT new social behaviors for group chats. It follows the flow of the conversation and decides when to respond and when to stay quiet based on the context of the group conversation.
Back in May I did a deep dive into multiplayer AI chat. It’s really complicated. I outlined all the different parts of conversational turn taking theory that you need to account for to have a satisfying multiplayer conversation.
What I didn’t say at the end of that post was that, if I was building it, the whole complicated breakdown that I provided is not what I would do.
Instead I would find a big corpus of group chats for seed data and just train the model against that.
And it wouldn’t be perfect but it would be good enough to launch a product, and then you have actual live usage data coming in and you can iteratively train from there.
Where did that seed data come from for OpenAI? I don’t know. There was that reddit deal last year, maybe it was part of the bundle.
So they can buy data.
Or they can make it.
Alternate access to seed training data #2: cosplay it.
Every so often you hear gossip about how seed training data can be manufactured… I remember seeing a tweet about this a few months ago and now there’s a report:
AI agents are being trained on clones of SaaS products.
According to a new @theinformation report, Anthropic and OpenAI are building internal clones of popular SaaS apps so that they can train AI agents how to use them.
Internal researchers are giving the agents cloned, fake versions of products like Zendesk and Salesforce to teach the agents how to perform the tasks that white collar workers currently do.
The tweet I ran across was from a developer saying that cloning business apps for the purpose of being used in training was a sure-fire path to a quick acquisition, but that it felt maybe not ok.
My point is that AI companies don’t need sneak onto computers to watch product managers triaging tickets in Linear. Instead, given the future value is evident, it’s worth it to simply build a simulation of Linear, stuff it with synthetic data, then pay fake product managers to cosplay managing product inside fake Linear, and train off that.
Incidentally, the reason I keep saying seed training data is that the requirement for it is one-off. Once the product loop has started, the product creates it own. Which is why I don’t believe that revenue from licensing social network data or scientific paper is real. There will be a different pay-per-access model in the future.
I’m interested in whether this model extends to physical AI.
Will they need lanyards around the necks of plumbers in order to observe plumbing and to train the humanoid robots of the future?
Or will it be more straightforward to scrape YouTube plumbing tutorials to get started, and then build a simulation of a house (physical or virtual, in Unreal Engine) and let the AI teach itself?
What I mean is that AI companies need access to seed training data, but where it comes from is product-dependent and there are many ways to skin a cat.
That’s loop #1 – a LLM-mediated marketplace loop that (a) closes on transactions and (b) throws off usage data that improves market efficiency and reveals other products.
Per-product seed training data is a one-off investment for the AI company and can be found in many ways.
This loop produces cash.
Coding is the special loop that changes everything
Loop #2 starts with a specific product from loop #1.
A coding product isn’t just a model which is good at understanding and writing code. It has to be wrapped in an agent for planning, and ultimately needs access to collaboration tools, AI PMs, AI user researchers, and all the rest.
I think it’s pretty clear now that coding with an agent is vastly quicker than a human coding on their own. And not just quicker but, from my own experience, I can achieve goals that were previously beyond my grasp.
The loop closes when coding agents accelerate the engineers who are building the coding agents and also, as a side effect, working on the underlying general purpose large language model.
There’s an interesting kind of paperclip maximisation problem here which is, if you’re choosing where to put your resources, do you build paperclip machines or do you build the machines to build the paperclip machines?
Well it seems like all the big AI companies have made the same call right now which is to pile their efforts into accelerating coding, because doing that accelerates everything else.
So those are the two big loops.
Whoever gets those first will win, that’s how I think about it.
I want to add two notes on this.
On training data feeding the marketplace loop:
Running the platform capitalism/marketplace loop is not the only way for a company to participate in the AI product economy.
Another way is to enable it.
Stripe is doing this. They’re working hard to be the default transaction rails for AI agents.
Apple has done this for the last decade or so of the previous platform capitalism loop. iPhone is the place to reach people for all of Facebook, Google, Amazon, Uber and more.
When I said before that AI companies are trying to get closer to the point of intent, part of what I mean I that they are trying to figure out a way that a single hardware company like Apple can’t insert itself into the loop and take its 30%.
Maybe, in the future, device interactions will be super commoditised. iPhone’s power is that is bundles together an interaction surface, connectivity, compute, identity and payment, and we have one each. It’s interesting to imagine what might break that scarcity.
On coding tools that improve coding tools:
How much do you believe in this accelerating, self-improving loop?
The big AI research labs all believe – or at least, if they don’t believe, they believe that the risk of being wrong is worse.
But, if true, “tools that make better tools that allow grabbing bigger marketplaces” is an Industrial Revolution-like driver: technology went from the steam engine to the transistor in less than 200 years. Who knows what will happen this time around.
Because there’s a third loop to be found, and that’s when the models get so good that they can be used for novel R&D, and the AI labs (who have the cash and access to the cheapest compute) start commercialising wheels with weird new physics or whatever.
Or maybe it’ll stall out. Hard to know where the top of the S-curve is.
Up, it being a snow and hard frost, and being up I did call up Sarah, who do go away to-day or to-morrow. I paid her her wages, and gave her 10s. myself, and my wife 5s. to give her. For my part I think never servant and mistress parted upon such foolish terms in the world as they do, only for an opinion in my wife that she is ill-natured, in all other things being a good servant. The wench cried, and I was ready to cry too, but to keep peace I am content she should go, and the rather, though I say nothing of that, that Jane may come into her place.
This being done, I walked towards Guildhall, thither being summoned by the Commissioners for the Lieutenancy; but they sat not this morning. So meeting in my way W. Swan, I took him to a house thereabouts, and gave him a morning draft of buttered ale; he telling me still much of his Fanatique stories, as if he were a great zealot, when I know him to be a very rogue. But I do it for discourse, and to see how things stand with him and his party; who I perceive have great expectation that God will not bless the Court nor Church, as it is now settled, but they must be purified. The worst news he tells me, is that Mr. Chetwind is dead, my old and most ingenious acquaintance. He is dead, worth 3,000l., which I did not expect, he living so high as he did always and neatly. He hath given W. Symons his wife 300l., and made Will one of his executors.
Thence to the Temple to my counsel, and thence to Gray’s Inn to meet with Mr. Cole but could not, and so took a turn or two in the garden, being very pleasant with the snow and frost. Thence to my brother’s, and there I eat something at dinner and transcribed a copy or two of the state of my uncle’sestate, which I prepared last night, and so to the Temple Church, and there walked alone till 4 or 5 o’clock, and then to my cozen Turner’s chamber and staid there, up and down from his to Calthrop’s and Bernard’s chambers, till so late, that Mr. Cole not coming, we broke up for meeting this night, and so taking my uncle Thomas homewards with me by coach, talking of our desire to have a peace, and set him down at Gracious-street end, and so home, and there I find Gosnell come, who, my wife tells me, is like to prove a pretty companion, of which I am glad. So to my office for a little business and then home, my mind having been all this day in most extraordinary trouble and care for my father, there being so great an appearance of my uncle’s going away with the greatest part of the estate, but in the evening by Gosnell’s coming I do put off these thoughts to entertain myself with my wife and her, who sings exceeding well, and I shall take great delight in her, and so merrily to bed.
What it all comes down to is this: If we’re not at war, Hegseth is a murderer; if we are at war, Hegseth is still a murderer. Hegseth and MAGA keep trying to throw up justifications to allow them to kill 83 defenseless people without evidence, and I’m telling you that the laws are designed specifically to prevent that from being OK.
In a more general sense, this is something that has become all too common in the Trump era. There is a belief in the validity of legal casuistry that defies the obvious meaning of the law. For example, there were (still are) Trumpist apparatchiks who argued that the 22nd Amendment did not prevent Trump from running for a third term, even though it’s obvious what the 22nd Amendment says, as well as the original intent (remember that?) of its drafters.
So remember, when Trumpists make a ridiculous argument, we might have to take the argument seriously because they have power, but the laws often say otherwise, and we shouldn’t let them gaslight us into thinking otherwise.
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.
Continued Economic Uncertainty Reflected in Rail Volumes
... In November 2025, total U.S. rail carloads were up
1.5% over November 2024, and 9 of the 20 major rail
carload categories posted year-over-year gains. ...
U.S. rail intermodal shipments, which are driven primarily by consumer goods, fell 6.5% in November 2025
from November 2024. Year-to-date intermodal volume through November was 13.00 million containers and
trailers, up 1.9% (nearly 247,000 units) over last year. emphasis added
The AAR Freight Rail Index
(FRI) combines seasonally adjusted month-to-month
rail intermodal shipments with carloads excluding
coal and grain. The index is a useful gauge of
underlying freight demand associated with the
industrial and consumer economy. The index fell
0.4% in November 2025 from October 2025, its
seventh decline in the past eight months. The index
is 4.4% below its year-earlier level, largely because of
the intermodal slowdown in recent months.
It’s absolutely vital to be able to communicate effectively and efficiently to large groups of people. I’ve been lucky enough to get to refine and test my skills in communicating at scale for a few decades now, and the power of talking to communities is the one area where I’d most like to pass on what I’ve learned, because it’s this set of skills that can have the biggest effect on deciding whether good ideas and good work can have their greatest impact.
My own work crosses many disparate areas. Over the years, I’ve gotten to cycle between domains as distinct as building technology platforms and products for developers and creators, enabling activism and policy advocacy in service of humanist ideals, and more visible external-facing work such as public speaking or writing in various venues like magazines or on this site. (And then sometimes I dabble in my other hobbies and fun stuff like scholarship or research into areas like pop culture and media.)
What’s amazing is, in every single one of these wildly different areas, the exact same demands apply when trying to communicate to broad groups of people. This is true despite the broadly divergent cultural norms across all of these different disciplines. It can be a profoundly challenging, even intimidating, job to make sure a message is being communicated accurately, and in high fidelity, to everyone that you need to reach.
That vital task of communicating to a large group gets even more daunting when you inevitably realize that, even if you were to find the perfect wording or phrasing for your message, you’d still never be able to deliver your story to every single person in your target audience by yourself anyway. There will always be another person whom you’re trying to reach that you just haven’t found yet. So, is it hopeless? Is it simply impossible to effectively tell a story at scale if you don’t have massive resources?
It doesn’t have to be. We can start with one key insight about what it takes to get your most important stories out into the world. It’s a perspective that seems incredibly simple at first, but can lead to a pretty profound set of insights.
They have to be able to talk about us without us.
They have to be able to talk about us without us. What this phrase means, in its simplest form, is that you have to tell a story so clear, so concise, so memorable and evocative that people can repeat it for you even after you’ve left the room. And the people who hear it need to be able to do this the first time they hear the story. Whether it’s the idea behind a new product, the core promise of a political campaign, or the basic takeaway from a persuasive essay (guess what the point of this one is!) — not only do you have to explain your idea and make your case, you have to be teaching your listener how to do the same thing for themselves.
This is a tall order, to be sure. In pop music, the equivalent is writing a hit where people feel like they can sing along to the chorus by the time they get to the end of the song for the first time. Not everybody has it in them to write a hook that good, but if you do, that thing is going to become a classic. And when someone else has done it, you know it because it gets stuck in your head. Sometimes you end up humming it to yourself even if you didn’t want to. Your best ideas — your most vital ideas — need to rest on a messaging platform that solid.
Delivering this kind of story actually requires substance. If you’re trying to fake it, or to force a narrative out of fluff or fakery, that will very immediately become obvious. When you set out to craft a story that travels in your absence, it has to have a body if it’s going to have legs. Bullshit is slippery and smells terrible, and the first thing people want to do when you leave the room is run away from it, not carry it with them.
The mission is the message
There’s another challenge to making a story that can travel in your absence: your ego has to let that happen. If you make a story that is effective and compelling enough that others can tell it, then, well…. those other people are going to tell it. Not you. They’ll do it in their own words, and in their own voices, and make it theirs. They may use a similar story, but in their own phrasing, so it will resonate better with their people. This is a gift! They are doing you a kindness, and extending you great generosity. Respond with gratitude, and be wary of anyone who balks at not getting to be the voice or the face of a message themselves. Everyone gets a turn telling the story.
Maybe the simple fact that others will be hearing a good story for the first time will draw them to it, regardless of who the messenger is. Sometimes people get attached to the idea that they have to be the one to deliver the one true message. But a core precept of “talk about us without us” is that there’s a larger mission and goal that everyone is bought into, and this demands that everyone stay aligned to their values rather than to their own personal ambitions around who tells the story.
The truth of whomever will be most effective is the factor used to decide who will be the person to tell the story in any context. And this is a forgiving environment, because even if someone doesn’t get to be the voice one day, they’ll get another shot, since repetition and consistency are also key parts of this strategy, thanks to the disciplined approach that it brings to communication.
The joy of communications discipline
At nearly every organization where I’ve been in charge of onboarding team members in the last decade or so, one of the first messages we’ve presented to our new colleagues is, “We are disciplined communicators!” It’s a message that they hopefully get to hear as a joyous declaration, and as an assertion of our shared values. I always try to explicitly instill this value into teams I work with because, first, it’s good to communicate values explicitly, but also because this is a concept that is very seldom directly stated.
It is ironic that this statement usually goes unsaid, because nearly everyone who pays attention to culture understands the vital importance of disciplined communications. Brands that are strictly consistent in their use of things like logos, type, colors, and imagery get such wildly-outsized cultural impact in exchange for relatively modest investment that it’s mind-boggling to me that more organizations don’t insist on following suit. Similarly, institutions that develop and strictly enforce a standard tone of voice and way of communicating (even if the tone itself is playful or casual) capture an incredibly valuable opportunity at minimal additional cost relative to how much everyone’s already spending on internal and external communications.
In an era where every channel is being flooded with AI-generated slop, and when most of the slop tools are woefully incapable of being consistent about anything, simply showing up with an obviously-human, obviously-consistent story is a phenomenal way of standing out. That discipline demonstrates all the best of humanity: a shared ethos, discerning taste, joyful expression, a sense of belonging, an appealing consistency. And best of all, it represents the chance to participate for yourself — because it’s a message that you now know how to repeat for yourself.
Providing messages that individuals can pick up and run with on their own is a profoundly human-centric and empowering thing to do in a moment of rising authoritarianism. When the fascists in power are shutting down prominent voices for leveling critiques that they would like to censor, and demanding control over an increasingly broad number of channels, there’s reassurance in people being empowered to tell their own stories together. Seeing stories bubble up from the grassroots in collaboration, rather than being forced down upon people from authoritarians at the top, has an emotional resonance that only strengthens the substance of whatever story you’re telling.
How to do it
Okay, so it sounds great: Let’s tell stories that other people want to share! Now, uh… how do we do it? There are simple principles we can follow that help shape a message or story into one that is likely to be carried forward by a community on its own.
Ground it in your values. When we began telling the story of my last company Glitch, the conventional wisdom was that we were building a developer tool, so people would describe it as an “IDE” — an “integrated development environment”, which is the normal developer jargon for the tool coders use to write their code in. We never described Glitch that way. From day one, we always said “Glitch is the friendly community where you'll build the app of your dreams” (later, “the friendly community where everybody builds the internet”). By talking about the site as a friendly community instead of an integrated development environment, it was crystal clear what expectations and norms we were setting, and what our values were. Within a few months, even our competitors were describing Glitch as a “friendly community” while they were trying to talk about how they were better than us about some feature or the other. That still feels like a huge victory — even the competition was talking about us without us! Make sure your message evokes the values you want people to share with each other, either directly or indirectly.
Start with the principle. This is a topic I’ve covered before, but you can't win unless you know what you're fighting for. Identify concrete, specific, perhaps even measurable goals that are tied directly to the values that motivate your efforts. As noted recently, Zohran Mamdani did this masterfully when running for mayor of New York City. While the values were affordability and the dignity of ordinary New Yorkers, the clear, understandable, measurable principle could be something as simple as “free buses”. This is a goal that everyone can get in 5 seconds, and can explain to their neighbor the first time they hear it. It’s a story that travels effortlessly on its own — and that people will be able to verify very easily when it’s been delivered. That’s a perfect encapsulation of “talk about us without us”.
Know what makes you unique. Another way of putting this is to simply make sure that you have a sense of self-awareness. But the story you tell about your work or your movement has to be specific. There can’t be platitudes or generalities or vague assertions as a core part of the message, or it will never take off. One of the most common failure states for this mistake is when people lean on slogans. Slogans can have their use in a campaign, for reminding people about the existence of a brand, or supporting broader messaging. But very often, people think a slogan is a story. The problem is that, while slogans are definitely repeatable, slogans are almost definitionally too vague and broad to offer a specific and unique narrative that will resonate. There’s no point in having people share something if it doesn’t say something. I usually articulate the challenge here like this: Only say what only you can say.
Be evocative, not comprehensive. Many times, when people are passionate about a topic or a movement, the temptation they have in telling the story is to work in every little detail about the subject. They often think, “if I include every detail, it will persuade more people, because they’ll know that I’m an expert, or it will convince them that I’ve thought of everything!” In reality, when people are not subject matter experts on a topic, or if they’re not already intrinsically interested in that topic, hearing a bunch of extensive minutia about it will almost always leave them feeling bored, confused, intimidated, condescended-to, or some combination of all of these. Instead, pick a small subset of the most emotionally gripping parts of your story, the aspects that have the deepest human connection or greatest relevance and specificity to the broadest set of your audience, and focus on telling those parts of the story as passionately as possible. If you succeed in communicating that initial small subset of your story effectively, then you may earn the chance to tell the other more complex and nuanced details of your story.
Your enemies are your friends. Very often, when people are creating messages about advocacy, they’re focused on competition or rivals. In the political realm, this can be literal opposing candidates, or the abstraction of another political party. In the corporate world, this can be (real or imagined) competitive products or companies. In many cases, these other organizations or products or competitors occupy so much more mental space in your mind, or your team’s mind, than they do in the mind of your potential audience. Some of your audience has never heard of them at all. And a huge part of your audience thinks of you and your biggest rival as… basically the same thing. In a business or commercial context, customers can barely keep straight the difference between you and your competition — you’re both just part of the same amorphous blob that exists as “the things that occupy that space”. Your competitor may be the only other organization in the world that’s fighting just as hard as you are to create a market for the product that you’re selling. The same is true in the political space; sometimes the biggest friction arises over the narcissism of small differences. What we can take away from these perspectives is that our stories have to focus on what distinguishes us, yes, but also on what we might have in common with those whom we might otherwise have perceived to have been aligned with the “enemy”. Those folks might not have sworn allegiance to an opposing force; they may simply have chosen another option out of convenience, and not even seen that choice as being in opposition to your story at all.
Find joy in repetition. Done correctly, a disciplined, collaborative, evocative message can become a mantra for a community. There’s a pride and enthusiasm that can come from people becoming proficient in sharing their own version of the collective story. And that means enjoying when that refrain comes back around, or when a slight improvement in the core message is discovered, and everyone finds a way to refine the way they’re communicating about the narrative. A lot of times, people worry that their team will get bored if they’re “just telling the same story over and over all the time”. In reality, as a brilliant man once said, there’s joy in repetition.
Don’t obsess over exact wording. This one is tricky; you might say, “but you said we have to be disciplined communicators!” And it’s true: it’s important to be disciplined. But that doesn’t mean you can’t leave room for people to put their own spin on things. Let them translate to their own languages or communities. Let them augment a general principle with a specific, personal connection. If they have their own authentic experience which will amplify a story or drive a point home, let them weave that context into the consistent narrative that’s been shared over time. As long as you’re not enabling a “telephone game” where the story starts to morph into an unrecognizable form, it’s perfectly okay to add a human touch by going slightly off script.
Share the story
Few things are more rewarding than when you find a meaningful narrative that resonates with the world. Stories have the power to change things, to make people feel empowered, to galvanize entire communities into taking action and recognizing their own power. There’s also a quiet reward in the craft and creativity of working on a story that travels, in finding notes that resonate with others, and in challenging yourself to get far enough out of your own head to get into someone else’s heart.
I still have so much to learn about being able to tell stories effectively. I still screw it up so much of the time, and I can look back on many times when I wish I had better words at hand for moments that sorely needed them. But many of the most meaningful and rewarding moments of my life have been when I’ve gotten to be in community with others, as we were not just sharing stories together, but telling a united story together. It unlocks a special kind of creativity that’s a lot bigger than what any one of us can do alone.
This is the third part of our four-part series (I, II) discussing the debates surrounding ancient Greek hoplites and the formation in which they (mostly?) fought, the phalanx. Last week, we looked at how the equipment which defined the hoplite – hoplite (ὁπλίτης), after all, means ‘equipped man’) – and how it weighs on on the debate.
And what I expressed last time is that I found the ‘strong’ versions of both the orthodox and heterodox arguments uncompelling. The notion that the hoplite was effectively an ultra-encumbered turtle who couldn’t fight outside of a close huddle simply doesn’t stand up when comparing hoplite equipment – heavy, but not extremely so, somewhat constrained, but not particularly so – to other historical heavy infantry equipment. At the same time, the heterodox vision, where hoplites are as at home in open-order or fluid skirmishing as they are in the confines of a shield wall doesn’t hold up either. You can fight that way with hoplite equipment, but the panoply is terribly adapted for it while being very well adapted for the context of a shield wall, suggesting to me that this was always its primary intended purpose (albeit with a meaningful amount of flexibility built in).
We’re now going to carry those observations forward to discuss tactics. To the degree that the board public understands the hoplite debates, they understand it as a debate over tactics and often reduce it to the question, “did they shove?” But there are quite a few more tactical questions here than simply the question of the nature of the othismos. As with some of the previous questions, a lot of these questions are linked but weakly so, meaning it is possible to a degree to ‘mix and match’ without adopting a position that is incoherent. So we’ll begin by outlining what I view as the main differences here and also some of the significant elements of those positions I see as meaningfully unsatisfactory.
As we’ll see chronology also matters here: while the orthodox school generally imagines hoplite warfare to have emerged all at once (a position we’ve already seen can no longer be sustained given the archaeological evidence), reached tactical maturity in the phalanx relatively quickly and then remained rigid and relatively unchanged until the end of the fifth century, the heterodox school instead argues for a lot more chronological change.
Now, I wanted to do the discussion of tactics in a single post so that we could get into some of the interesting implications for polis society more quickly, but there really are too many moving parts and I realized – at the point where I had run out of most of the week, written 7,000 words and barely gotten through the Archaic – that this post needed to be split. The split is, as a result, horribly awkward.
This week, we’re going to look at the ‘strong’ orthodox hoplite model (and dismiss it) and then at parts of the ‘strong’ heterodox model (which we’ll also find unsatisfying, but not entirely without value), before finally working through what a ‘proto-phalanx‘ of the late 600s or 500s might have looked like, thinking in terms of comparative models and what little evidence we have.
Then next week we’ll turn to the ‘mature’ phalanx of the classical period, looking at how we might imagine it functions – tactics, ‘standard’ depth, role of supporting arms, etc. – along with the broader question of defining what exactly the phalanx is (and why I think a more flexible definition is more useful).
Since we’re leaving the definitional work to next week we’re going to avoid calling much of anything a ‘phalanx’ this week, even though these two posts are fundamnetally about the phalanx. One of the things I view as a real problem in this debate are the hard definitional boundaries imposed by both sides, which derive from an overly rigid vision – Konijnendijk’s ‘Prussians’ again – of how the phalanx functioned. The problem is that while the orthodox insist that anything called a phalanx must fit that rigid (and as we’ll see, quite implausible) model, heterodox scholars often insist that anything that does not fit the model is not a phalanx in order to push the date for ‘the phalanx’ back. In my view it is well past time to let the evidence lead the definition rather than the other way around – the phalanx is what the phalanx does, not how we define it – so we’ll lead with the evidence and revisit the definitional scrum only at the end.
As always, if you like what you are reading, please share it as I rely on word-of-mouth to find readers! And if you really like it, you can support this project over at Patreon; I don’t promise not to use the money to buy a full hoplite panoply, but I also don’t not promise to do that.1 And if you want updates whenever a new post appears, you can click below for email updates or follow me on Twitter and Bluesky for updates when posts go live and my general musings; I have largely shifted over to Bluesky (I maintain some de minimis presence on Twitter), given that it has become a much better place for historical discussion than Twitter.
Let Us Shove Off
As we’ve noted – nearly ad nauseam at this point – the orthodox and heterodox ‘camps’ differ both in their understanding of the chronology by which something called ‘the phalanx’ developed, but also their sense of the mechanics of what something called ‘the phalanx’ was and how it functioned. I think both tactical models are substantially flawed. I should note while putting this together Paul Bardunais linked his own synthesis (presented here in video form) which I hadn’t seen developed in full. It is not exactly my synthesis, but it is actually pretty close (I think it is a perfectly good, defensible, plausible model, which is more than I can say for the ‘strong’ models we’re about to discuss) as we’ll see and it is good to see someone working on a synthesis position.
One crucial difference between the orthodox and heterodox models of hoplite warfare is that orthodoxy generally imagines a tactically stable (or stagnant) phalanx: it doesn’t change after emerging and rapidly reaching ‘mature’ form. By contrast, the heterodox model assumes significant development over time. Now I do want to treat the evidence for tactics in the Archaic and Classical periods separately, because as we’ve already seen, I think the heterodox school is fundamentally correct in assuming meaningful change over time, but first I think it is worthwhile to dispense with the orthodox tactical vision, at least in its narrowest form. We ought to do that in the beginning because – since the orthodox view is that the phalanx is tactically stagnant – this model is supposed to be valid in every period. So rather than repeat myself, we can deal with it once here.
The modern version of orthodox hoplite tactics comes directly from The Western Way of Warand so that is the ‘strong’ version of the model I will focus on here. The orthodox vision is that in a phalanx formation, hoplites were densely spaced (file widths of 45-60cm, shoulder-to-shoulder), they advanced at a run and then collided at speed with the two formations smashing together at full tilt. Then, the orthodox suppose the othismos was a kind of rugby-scrum style shoving match where the formations tried to push through each other (while also striking over and beneath shields) and as gaps and tears formed in the line from this pushing action, one phalanx would fall apart. Such fighting naturally fully excluded light infantry and cavalry. Moreover, as we’ve seen chronologically, the orthodox camp argues this form of warfare developed swiftly in the 8th and early 7th century and remained pure and unchanged from then to the late fifth century, a long period of relatively static hoplite warfare.
That vision exists within a sort of assumed framework, particularly among earlier scholars, as Roel Konijnendijk notes in his book,1 that derives more from early modern gunpowder warfare than from ancient warfare: there is an assumption of rigid command and control, supported by both training in arms (that is practice with weapons as opposed to just fitness training) and drill (that is, practice moving in unison) of a sort that is, bluntly put, not really attested in our sources until the late Classical period (if even then). Victor Davis Hansen’s work, coming later out of the Face of Battle school instead emphasizes the amateur citizen-soldier nature of hoplites (and thus doesn’t really assume lots of drill or practice) but keeps the rigid tactical system.
This vision is, frankly, nuts.No other shield wall behaves this way, shoving in a mass rugby scrum. It is physically possible – these presses have been demonstrated, it will not necessarily crush the men in the middle – but it cuts against human psychology in combat (humans tend not to want to stay in the ‘danger zone’ of enemy weapons – called ‘measure’ – for very long) and more important against the sort of casualty figures we get, which suggest losses for victors in hoplite battles could be relatively low and thus most casualties occurred after the rout.2 If this kind of shoving were normal, we’d expect knives and daggers, not spears, to be the weapon of choice (and I should note that while Greek swords are generally on the short side, a xiphos is not a knife or a dagger) and one man with a knife pressed at the front could make a terrible mess very quickly as he can easily stab over the shields of his enemies into the neck from the side where even the Corinthian helmet offers less than perfect protection. Indeed, notably, something like a combat dagger isn’t even a standard element of the hoplite’s kit (rare to see them in artwork) and won’t be a standard piece of equipment in the Eastern Mediterranean until the early Roman imperial period (by which point the Romans have fallen in love with a devilish dagger from Spain they call a pugio).3
Crucially, as heterodox scholars have been pointing out for decades now, nothing in the source tradition requires us to interpret othismos (a term that is not used in every or even most hoplite battles!) this literally: plenty of cultures describe ‘presses’ and ‘pushes’ of infantry that are not literal shoving. At no point does any source clearly describe the othismos as literal shoving; instead it is used to mean what we might term ‘coming into contact’ or ‘shock’ (e.g. Hdt. 7.225.1, 9.62.2, Xen. Anab. 5.2.17, etc.etc.), that is, two formations moving into melee range, or in the sense of a given ‘push’ of effort to achieve victory – we use the same phrase metaphorically of infantry assaults with guns that don’t involve anyone getting within 50 yards of a shoving match. While we start to see lines of men in Greek artwork, seemingly in close-order, as early as the 650s, we never see obvious scenes of mass shoving or even a lot of ‘combat grappling’ (it is hard to grapple with one hand secure in a two-point grip on a shield).4It is striking that the orthodox school in its modern incarnation is thus arguing that the primary mode of high-status Greek hoplite warfare – the supposed shoving othismos – is both the core of experience of battle in the late Archaic and Classical Greek world and also never depicted in artwork, not even once. That is simply, to me, an unsustainable reading of the evidence.
I am struck that early modern European artwork furnishes more examples of nearly-scrum-like engagements (see below) involved in the push-of-pike, but even in the most chaotic push-of-pike scenes, soldiers are not shoving but instead have recourse to draw their swords (generally the katzbalger, which at 70-80cm is not very much larger than a xiphos or kopis) and cut with them.
Via Wikipedia, the classic Hans Holbein the Younger scene of a push of pike (early 16th cent.). I should note not every artist depicts these clashes this way – often they do seem to have been ‘poking matches’ at the edge of pike’s reach, but evidently could produce melees of this sort. That said, while we do see some men grappling at very close range with daggers, many still use their pikes or else draw their swords, suggesting there is still enough space, even in this mass, to use such weapons.
One may well imagine that two shield walls coming together may have created a temporary press similar to crowd collapses or rushes that happen sometimes at overcrowded concerts and similar crowded spaces, but there’s no sign this was the intended goal. As we’ll see in a moment, I suspect rival hoplite formations probably did often collide at some speed (though not perhaps intentionally), but if they did, I would expect them to ‘accordion’ back out rather than for the men in the rear to press their friends into the points of enemy spears. Crowd crushes happen because the psychological pressure is urging people in the back to push forward but in combat the psychological pressure is urging everyone to move away from the enemy.
Given how speculative and awkward the ‘shoving’ othismos is (as opposed, as we’ll see, to othismos-as-pulse) it is a bit frustrating that it persists in many reenactment circles, presumably because – as Roel Konijnendijk once suggested to me – it is a reasonably ‘safe’ way to do a hoplite reenactment as opposed to, you know, jabbing sharp weapons at people.
Problems pile up for the orthodox model from there. The very tight shoulder-to-shoulder spacing seems quite clearly to be a product of reasoning from modern musket formations; no shock formation I know of was ever this dense (including early modern pike formations). As we’ll see in a moment, I don’t think the spacing was loose generally (> 100cm file width), but I also do not think it was ultra-tight generally (< 60cm). Since we’re not shoving, after all, we need some space to actually use our shield and weapon (though nowhere near as much space as some heterodox scholars imagine, more on that next week).
Meanwhile, the developmental timeline does not work either: hoplite equipment didn’t emerge suddenly and so the ‘mature’ all-hoplite phalanx couldn’t have done so either. Moreover, as the heterodox will frequently note, light troops and cavalry continue to appear frequently in Archaic artwork and battle scenes, often intermingled with hoplites, suggesting they still have a battlefield role. Tyrtaeus, writing in the mid-7th century describes “You light-armed men, wherever you can aim/from the shield-cover, pelt them with great rocks/and hurl at them your smooth-shaped javelins” (Fr. 11 West, trans. West), which sure implies that the light-armed have a job to do even c. 650 or so and that it involves being at least in the same zip-code as the shield wall of hoplites (since they are aiming “from the shield-cover”). And of course throwing javelins and rocks would hardly be feasible if the two opposing lines were locked in contact in a shoving match, as you’d end up hitting your own fellows as often as the enemy. So this orthodox vision will not do, especially for the Archaic.
So what will work?
The Archaic Phalanx Did Not Pine For the Fjords
Having beaten up quite a lot on the orthodox vision, I think we must now turn and beat up a bit on the heterodox vision, particularly the version developed by Hans van Wees. Now here I want to note that while the orthodox school has effectively a single vision of hoplite combat, the heterodox school can sometimes contain multitudes and so not every ‘heterodox’ scholar shares Hans van Wees’ combat model. However it is also the case that Hans van Wees is also pretty much the only scholar in print to lay out a complete model, so we have to deal with it.
And I want to begin with a fairly big reasoning problem involving some dead birds. Hans van Wees, it must be noted, is coming at the question of Greek warfare chronologically from the ‘other side’ in that his work before Greek Warfare: Myths and Realities (2004) was focused on war and violence in Homer, so he is advancing forward from the early archaic towards the classical rather than reasoning backwards from the classical towards the archaic.
Van Wees presents in Greek Warfare and again in his chapter in Men of Bronze (2013) warfare among the Dani people of the highlands of Western Papua New Guinea as a kind of ‘key’ to understand Homeric warfare and thus early hoplite warfare. He cites for this Gardner and Heider, Gardens of War: life and death in the New Guinea Stone Age (1968), the print publication of this research, but most people, if they are aware of this work will be aware of it through the famous and foundational documentary film made during that research, Dead Birds (1963), also made by Robert Gardner. The film presents an idealized vision of a single battle among the Dani people, a people living with stone-age technology (no metal working) in the highlands of Papua New Guinea, though the footage is actually a pastiche of several battles fitted together. That said, Dead Birds is essentially the only footage we have of a society waging a real life-and-death battle with contact weapons.
This is an important piece of scholarship and a crucial tool in our understanding of warfare in the past and I have been on and on so far about how I think the study of hoplite warfare would benefit from comparative evidence so you may be expecting me to praise the use of this material as a tool for understanding Greek warfare, but I cannot.
Van Wees clearly reads this warfare – and perhaps, though he does not cite it, watches the film – and sees in it things Homer is describing (remember, he is coming at this originally as a Homerist): initially massed ranks that break up into no-order open skirmishes, spear-throwing, front line fighters advancing and retreating and so on.5The failure here is not the effort to use comparative evidence (that’s a good instinct) but the failure to ask if the comparandum – the thing being compared6 – is a good match for warfare in the Greek archaic?
Via Wikipedia, warriors of the Dani people from the central highlands. Now we need to suspend our cultureal assumptions for a moment and avoid focusing on if these fellows look ‘strange’ (we probably look strange to them and all of us would look strange to the Greeks). Instead, we want to ask are these fellows equipped to fight similarly to hoplites or other iron-age Greeks. And the answer just has to be ‘no, obviously not.’ They don’t have helmets, or shields, or armor, or shields, or clothing, or shields, or iron-tipped spears, or shields, or swords of any kind OR SHIELDS.
Because it pretty clearly isn’t. In this documented last phase of Dani warfare (they don’t do these battles anymore), the Dani still had an effectively stone-age level of technology, compared to iron-age Greeks. I cannot stress this enough: that is a very big difference, an enormous gap in weapons and armor capabilities which in turn comes with enormous implications for tactics. Metal – be it bronze or iron (much less steel) – is so much better a material for weapons that it significantly alters battlefield dynamics.
The Dani fight not only unarmored, but almost entirely nude and do not generally use shields in contrast to armored Greeks and Homeric heroes whose armor ‘clatters’ (ἀρᾰβεῖν, ‘to rattle, clang, clatter’ (of armor)) to the ground when slain and who regularly bear shields. In part, this is because Dani weapons are much less lethal than iron-age weapons, a point that jumps out if one actually watches Dead Birds. These men are trying to kill each other (and to not be killed) but fighting at distance it takes a lot of luck for their weapons to actually inflict lethal harm (and indeed, the casualties for these battles are very low). An arrow with a bone tip, or a spear that is merely a sharpened wooden stake can only be so sharp. Multiple individuals in Dead Birds are hit by arrows or javelins which simply do not penetrate to lethal depth (though one man does eventually die of a wound) despite striking the target. Remember these are unarmored, nude combatants who have been hit directly with a weapon. The contrast with what a sharp, iron-tipped broadhead arrow launched from a war bow can do against an unarmored target is quite stark; ancient and medieval artwork regularly show combatants with arrows transfixed in their bodies – all the way through and out the other side. As is typical with ‘first system‘ warfare, the high casualty bursts in Dani warfare come not from battles, which are generally symbolic affairs, but from ambushes and raids.
But even Homer’s heroes are clearly practicing ‘second system‘ warfare: they are laying siege to a large fortified city, with an army that Homer clearly understands to includes tens of thousands of warriors (Homer’s Catalog of Ships, 2.494-756 describes the Greeks as bringing a total of 1,186 ships; if taken literally it might imply an army of c. 150,000 though of course this is all subject to heroic exaggeration). Those warriors wield weapons – typically described by Homer as bronze, though iron is known to him – and wear body armor, helmets and carry large shields. As van Wees notes (op. cit., 166), the most prominent weapon in early Archaic artwork is actually the sword (spears are very common too), a weapon which the Dani did not have and were not capable of manufacturing with any material available to them. Homer’s own world is part of a broader military system that by 750 BC includes large, sophisticated professional armies in the Middle East (the Neo-Assyrians), employing complex siege craft (indeed, more complex than what the Greeks will have for centuries) and increasingly true cavalry. Homer seems to be blending a vague memory of late bronze age warfare (chariots! bronze weapons!) with early iron age warfare on the edge of ‘civilization.’7
So while in absolute chronology the Dani are c. 2,700 years in Homer’s future, in a kind of relative developmental chronology, their warfare is at least two thousand years in Homer’s past (taking the Greek bronze age to start very roughly at c. 3200). We might as well be trying to use footage of Roman warfare as the key to understanding the World Wars. Sure, humans and human psychology doesn’t change, so there may be some valuable insights (and indeed there are some about human psychology in combat which are useful in pushing back against the orthodox model) but we would need to be alert to everything that is different, which is a lot.
Approaching Archaic warfare through the lens of Homer, the Dani and Dead Birds sets van Wees’ entire foundation askew. That doesn’t mean everything in his model is wrong, but it throws a lot of things off.
In particular, the van Wees model of archaic hoplite warfare runs thusly: hoplites emerge in the context of a kind of warfare that looks a lot like the way the Dani fight: extended skirmishes with missiles, with individual warriors occasionally running forward to take more risk (and be more lethal) doing battle at closer range, sometimes with javelins, sometimes with contact weapons (swords and spears). This is, for van Wees, the environment in which the hoplite emerges. Hoplites initially show up carrying two spears (one for throwing), which to van Wees suggests continued participation in the skirmish (see my doubt below) rather than being pure ‘shock’ specialists. For much of the archaic, in van Wees’ model, hoplites continue to fight in open order or even no order at all, with unarmored skirmishers – poorer Greeks – mixed in with them, taking cover behind the shields of hoplites in an intermixed and largely unorganized formation.
Over time, the hoplite grows gradually in importance, with other warriors not vanishing from artwork or literature (Tyrtaeus, importantly) but being less prominent, but those lights remain scattered ‘here and there’ amidst the hoplites even well into the sixth century, with light infantry prominent on the battlefield even to the Persian Wars at the end of the archaic. Van Wees admits no regular formation for hoplites prior to the first explicit mention of such in text in 426 (Aristophanes, Babylonians, F. 72) and contends that intervals less than six feet (180cm!) would have been unworkable even in the classical period (op. cit. 185).
For van Wees, these formations do not rush into a collision and then the ‘shoving-match’ othismos, but rather charge to release the psychological pressure of the fear of battle (thus the Spartans, better disciplined, walking into contact)8 but then slow down to a stop eis doru (‘into spear’s reach’) to then jab with spears at each other with overhead strikes. Formation collapse is thus not a result of shoving, but rather the line of hoplites collapses due to psychological pressure and casualties (more the former than the latter).
And I should be clear at the outset: some of this is workable. But a lot of it is not.
As we’ve already seen, I think the idea that the hoplite panoply emerged for open-order skirmishing is simply not tenable: no one commits to open order or no-order skirmishing wearing heavy armor and using a large round shield (instead, globally, the most common ‘kit’ for this kind of fighting in metal-working societies is little or no armor, but relatively large oblong shields that can provide full coverage for the body from missiles). Van Wees insists that a hoplite could advance and retreat just as well wearing their heavier equipment as a light infantryman (op. cit., 171) and that is just…obviously not true. The man in 4-8kg of equipment (a ‘light’) is obviously going to be able to run down the man in 18kg of equipment (the hoplite). That is a real liability in a ‘Dead Birds‘ combat scenario because the ‘front’ moves so far forward and so far back: either side often mounts sudden advances which send the other side scurrying backwards – but if you are wearing 2-3 times as much kit as your mates, when your line scurries backwards to get out of range (and those lights aren’t sticking around for you, they’re unarmored and so in real danger of being instantly killed by close range javelin or arrow shots) you are going to fall behind and those enemy lights are going to catch you and all of the armor in the world isn’t going to save you in a fight outnumbered four-to-one.
And I think here is a good time to stop and talk about how hard it can be to interpret artwork and we can take for our example one of the most important pieces of evidence in all of this, the hoplite artwork on the Chigi Vase (c. 645 BC).
Via Wikimedia Commons, three images of the Chigi Vase’s hoplite scene (there is a second scene below), c. 645 BC. Use the flutist to keep your bearings as to how these images come together – there is only the one guy playing the flute (an aulos, technically). So from (our) left to right, we have a shield and some weapons on the ground and men looking like they’re gearing and running to join a battle line (bottom left), then we have the flutist, then a battle line (top) meeting another, with men in lines, spears raised and then (bottom right) we have a better view of the second battle line, with shields presented as overlapping and a second line of men coming behind it.
And the thing is almost every aspect of that evidence – which seems clear at first glance – is open to multiple interpretations, especially in the context of a two-decade old fight where no one wants to admit they might have been wrong. We can begin with the weapons: while orthodox scholars will point to a dense formation of hoplite-armed heavy infantry (with no light infantry in sight!) Hans van Wees and other heterodox scholars point to the fact that each hoplite here carries two spears, potentially with throwing loops and suggest that this two-spear configuration (which fades out by the end of the 600s) is indicative of hoplites still skirmishing.
And I want to stop for a minute and examine that point because I think it is suggestive of one of the problems I keep coming back to in these debates, because “having a throwing spear alongside a thrusting spear means you probably skirmish” is a position that cannot survive a working knowledge of ancient Mediterranean warfare much less warfare generally. After all, Roman heavy infantry famously carry two javelins (the pilum) and yet are very clearly shock heavy infantry.9 Likewise, in Spain among both Iberians and Celtiberians, a javelin (frequently of the soliferreum type, sometimes of other types) was a standard weapon to pair with the ubiquitous thrusting spear; we very frequently find them in pairs in grave deposits suggesting they were basically always carried one-and-one, yet Fernando Quesada Sanz has spent the last two decades arguing – persuasively – that Iberian and Celtiberian warriors fought frequently as ‘line infantry’ in a sort of shield wall.10 Likewise, we know that in certain periods, Gallic infantry carried javelins and no one would accuse the Gauls of generally operating like skirmish infantry. More broadly, history is full of examples of shock infantry that expected to shoot a single volley at close range right before closing into combat, be that Roman volley-and-charge with pila in the third century BC or post-gunpowder shock tactics like with the 17th century Highland Charge or the contemporary Swedish Gå–På (“go on”). It is significant that these hoplites still carry a throwing spear, but it absolutely does not make them skirmishers.
But the heterodox folks are right that there is a lot of interpretive difficulty here. Van Wees (op. cit.) wants to read the image as representing a single moment of combat, with some men fighting in the front, others holding back and still more gearing up in the ‘everyone do their own things’ Dead Birds style of battle, but of course one could just as easily read the image as chronological, showing the battle line forming up, then marching into battle (it’s a pity we don’t have more of the other side). On the other hand is the question of what to do with the fact that each battle line is shown in two ranks, one separated by a flutist, the other just by an open interval. The orthodox reading is that this is an indication of formation depth, a crucial component in their definition of the phalanx, whereas the heterodox note that there’s a separation here, no sign of shoving and so perhaps the second rank is well behind the first, a distant reserve. Everett Wheeler, in exasperation, pointed out once that contact infantry basically never fight without depth in just a single thin line and I tend to think he is right about that objection, but there is certainly no shoving othismos here.11 In terms of spacing, I read these soldiers are tightly spaced, indicating a close-order formation, but the heterodox will dismiss such closeness as artistic license, noting that soldiers are often drawn more tightly packed in artwork than they would have been in reality.
We might note that what we see here looks somewhat similar to something like the Bayeux Tapestry, which we know to depict a shield wall, but of course a chasm of time and art style separates the two, so this is hardly decisive.
Via Wikipedia (though I have cropped) the English shield-wall at Hastings (1066) as depicted on the Bayeux Tapestry (c. 1070s). Note the one little archer fellow, drawn smaller than the heavy infantry around him (because they’re more important) expressing the idea of some English archers being present, although to go by our sources for the battle, not many (far more Norman archers).
For my own part, my reading of the Chigi Vase is closer to the orthodox one: those men are in close order and the second rank of each formation does imply depth even if the artist has created some space for us to see the flutist. I think what is being expressed here is a chronological sequence, showing the formation forming up, then advancing and finally coming into contact, likely showing us the moment of volley before the charge. In this sense it is actually similar to the chronological scroll of the Bayeux Tapestry, where many scenes ‘blend’ into each other. The fact that the opposing formation is also shown at least two depth suggests to me that depth – not a sequence of two widely separated lines – is intended. We’ll come back to definitions next week, but I would call the thing on the Chigi Vase a ‘phalanx’ of a sort (we’re going to see my definition of ‘phalanx’ is a bit broader than some). But as you can see everyone has their own interpretation and the chances of convincing anyone of anything – something that seems promising when you first look at it – are slim.
At the same time van Wees is fundamentally right about some things. Light infantry with bows and javelins do not go away in Archaic artwork, though they do diminish over time, from being perhaps half of all depicted figures in the early Archaic to only showing up infrequently in ones and twos by the end. That might indicate an actual reduction in their numbers, but a even a fairly casual reading of Herodotus suggests otherwise: they’re still there, but they’ve become less politically and socially important and so are less frequently depicted or described. So we need a model of archaic battle which allows for both hoplites and light infantry with ranged weapons to share the battlefield; the ‘all hoplite’ Archaic phalanx of the orthodox school will not do with the evidence.
Towards Better Models
Instead, we need to think with iron-age comparanda about how heavy infantry work in concert with lighter ranged infantry. One possible comparison, contemporary to the Greek archaic, is the warfare system dominant in the Near East at the time: Neo-Assyrian infantry working in matched pairs of shield-bearing contact infantry (with spears) and foot archers. As best we can tell (our evidence is not fantastic) these fellows were expected to set up relatively static battlefield formations, with the shield-bearers providing both protection from ranged attack (with their large but thin shields) and also from sudden cavalry or contact infantry attack (with their spears). The archers could then safely develop ‘fire.’12 This has the advantage of being contemporary and there are lines in Tyrtaeus and artwork that support the idea of light infantry sheltering behind the shields of hoplites (van Wees, op. cit., 166-77 assembles the relevant examples). But that Neo-Assyrian paired infantry was also, from what we know, a quite well organized, professional standing infantry force which is not very much like our hoplites and the status distinction ran the other way (it was archery, not contact warfare, which seems to have been the higher status way to fight) and nothing gives us the sense that hoplites are fighting with lights in something like assigned pairs save perhaps some hint for the Spartans towards the end of the Persian Wars (op. cit. 182) and even then it is hardly strong evidence. I think we need to be aware that this combat model was, certainly by the late archaic if not earlier, available to the Greeks (at least some of them), but I do not think it was how they organized.
Another potential comparandum here is the early medieval shield walls I’ve alluded to before. I thought I would have to write a whole big paragraph about this, but actually Paul Bardunais walked through exactly this comparison and reconstruction, using a lot of knowledge gleaned from reenactment and safe combat sparring experiments and I don’t think I can improve very much on it. He presents this ‘hybrid’ shield wall as having a few ranks of heavy infantry, in relatively close order (we’ll get to intervals blow) at the front forming a protective wall, with light infantry skirmishers deployed behind. They might equally be able – with some difficulty – to filter through the ranks (since ‘close order’ does not mean ‘shoulder-to-shoulder’) so your skirmishers could move out in advance to screen the shield wall or drop back behind it if pressed. In this system, the shield wall becomes a kind of ‘base’ from which skirmishers can operate and since, as noted, hoplites are still often carrying a throwing spear of their own, it can also project some amount of ranged threat.
I think this is a workable mental model, though it seems like it may need a bit of modification to fully fit the evidence. I want to be clear that isn’t me saying it is wrong. Greek artists in the archaic tend to show skirmishers intermixed with hoplites when the show them, but it is really tricky to know how to gauge that. As you are presumably seeing from the artwork I’m showing here, going from a stylized 2D representation of a formation to understanding the actual formation is tricky and artists often have to distort, compressing intervals (very frequent in medieval artwork where formations we know were not shoulder-to-shoulder get compressed until they look it, cf. also the Columns of Trajan and Marcus Aurelius for the same effect) removing depth (so showing only a single rank) and so on. Likewise, my reading of Tyrtaeus’ description of hoplites in battle suggests that while there are certainly light infantrymen running about, there is an offensiveness to the ideal hoplite, who doesn’t just stand under ranged fire but gets in close to the enemy that speaks to me of something closer to what Bardunais terms a ‘bludgeon’ shield wall (which he associated with the classical period).
By fierce deeds let him teach himself to fight, and not stand out of fire – he has a shield – but get in close, engage and stab with lance or sword, and strike his adversary down. Plant foot by foeman’s foot, press shield on shield, thrust helm at helm and tangle plume with plume, opposing breast to breast: that’s how you fight, with the long lance or sword-grip in your hand. – Tyrtaeus fr. 11 West (trans. M.L. West)
I might suggest a third comparative model: warfare in pre-gunpowder coastal West Africa, within the range of the tsetse fly. While north of this region, in the Sahel (too try for the tsetse fly), warfare was dominated by cavalry, the tsetse fly’s sleeping sickness is lethal to horses and so warfare further south along the coast (along the Gulf of Guinea, down through to the Congo River) was an infantry affair. Armies here consisted of two kinds of troops, a broad (lower status) militia force which composed the bulk of the army and were armed as relatively light skirmishers and then a ‘core’ of better trained professional warriors maintained by local kings who formed the backbone of the army and were better equipped (notably including large shields, although not much body armor). A battle between two armies might begin with the engagement of skirmishers, intended to soften up the enemy force (and perhaps screen the higher status warriors). But at the right moment those higher status warriors with their large shields and contact weapons would charge forward in a dense mass, ideally scattering the enemy (who would have their own ‘base’ of heavier warriors too), thus winning the victory. Here the battlefield is open enough for the skirmishing troops to work in and around the ‘heavies’ who initially function as a defensive bulwark to the army but then at the right moment are deployed offensively.13
Via Wikimedia Commons, an African warrior with weapons, including a several iron-tipped javelins and a large shield, c. 1641. This warrior was painted fighting in Brazil, but was likely originally form the Kongo people.
Now I want to immediately caveat this model (I’ve spent so much time harrying van Wees for not doing so, I can hardly not do so myself), there are some major differences. The first is armor: this West African system had large shields (generally oblong, more useful against missiles, rather than round) but not much body armor and that’s a really big difference. They do have iron weapons, so those shields are necessary to limit the lethality of the skirmish and that professional core of contact infantry might wield deadly iron swords and iron-tipped spears (just like early hoplites). However, whereas warfare in Greece (and much of Eurasia) was about control of land, warfare in this part of West Africa was frequently about control of people (really, control of laborers) and as a result there is an emphasis in the local kit on capture weapons like clubs, not because these guys are primitive, but because they want to take enemies alive as captives. Those are some pretty meaningful differences and so I am by no means suggesting sub-Sahelian West African pre-gunpowder warfare as a 1-to-1 of early Archaic hoplite warfare: instead it is just another tool we can use to think about how people might combine light infantry and something like a shield wall.
But you can see how this model might work, especially if we work in elements of Bardunais’ model as well. Towards the close of the 8th century, the wealthier Greeks begin to start equipping themselves as ‘specialist’ contact infantry (albeit still carrying a perhaps a single throwing weapon), probably suggesting that ‘contact infantry’ (as distinct from skirmisher) was a role that had already existed and was generally the higher status role (as, frankly, Homer clearly seems to think). Fairly quickly these fellows end up grouped together rather than mixed up indiscriminately with the skirmishers, either in a single block as the core of the army (the ‘West African’ model) or as a line in the front of it (the ‘Early Medieval’ model), but still working hand in glove with the skirmishers. As these fellows group up, the equipment that makes the most sense in that context – what will eventually be the hoplite kit – begins to predominate.
By the late 600s, we see the last of the throwing spears carried by hoplites in artwork drop away, which suggests that these fellows are now exclusively contact infantry. That in turn suggests to me that ‘shock action’ has likely been the decisive part of the fight – or at least perceived as such – for some time. As noted above, I suspect that one retained throwing spear was not for the skirmish, but rather for volley-and-charge tactics. Instead I suspect this body of heavy infantry has been, probably for most of the 600s, been being used a bit like those West African troops: screened by the skirmishers, providing protection to them but then being expected to close, hurl spears and engage for a decisive shock action. The decline of throwing spears may indicate that the pre-shock skirmish phase is starting to be truncated to the point that it is no longer even useful to carry a second spear you aren’t going to get a chance to throw at a good target. That ‘at a good target’ may be operative: another hoplite in a shield wall is not all that vulnerable to a single thrown spear, but a skirmishing ‘light’ might be – as the pre-shock skirmish phase gets shorter and more and more focus goes into the direct clash of hoplites, that might lead to the diminished of the use of a simple throwing spear.14 Light infantry is still doing things, but their diminished place in artwork may represent their increasingly subordinate role, that by c. 600 or perhaps 550, an ‘offensive shield wall’ composed of hoplites is understood to be the decisive component of battle (albeit screened and supported by ‘lights’).
That model of Archaic warfare puts me more or less in the middle between the ‘strong’ gradualism of van Wees et al. and the ‘strong’ orthodox position, but I think it best fits the evidence we have.
But that leaves a fairly big pair of questions, because you’ll notice in all of this I have avoided using a very important word: the phalanx. We need to push into the classical period – where our sources at last get decent – and ask what is a phalanx and how does it function? Which is where we will turn next week.
Welcome to Edition 8.21 of the Rocket Report! We’re back after the Thanksgiving holiday with more launch news. Most of the big stories over the last couple of weeks came from abroad. Russian rockets and launch pads didn’t fare so well. China’s launch industry celebrated several key missions. SpaceX was busy, too, with seven launches over the last two weeks, six of them carrying more Starlink Internet satellites into orbit. We expect between 15 and 20 more orbital launch attempts worldwide before the end of the year.
As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets, as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Another Sarmat failure. A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fired from an underground silo on the country’s southern steppe on November 28 on a scheduled test to deliver a dummy warhead to a remote impact zone nearly 4,000 miles away. The missile didn’t even make it 4,000 feet, Ars reports. Russia’s military has been silent on the accident, but the missile’s crash was seen and heard for miles around the Dombarovsky air base in Orenburg Oblast near the Russian-Kazakh border. A video posted by the Russian blog site MilitaryRussia.ru on Telegram and widely shared on other social media platforms showed the missile veering off course immediately after launch before cartwheeling upside down, losing power, and then crashing a short distance from the launch site.
These are the releases that I kept on listening to, in no particular order:
Aart Bergwerff, Bach, Six Trio Sonatas for Organ.
Jonathan Ferrucci, Bach Toccatas.
Tom Hicks, Chopin Nocturnes. So little rubato, this one took time getting used to but now I love it.
Linos-Ensemble, Schoenberg-Webern-Berg, The Waltz Arrangements. I am surprised I like this one at all, it brings together the two main strands of Viennese music at the time.
Yuja Wang, Shostakovich Piano Concerti and pieces from Op.87.
i am selecting these based on a) are they truly great and important pieces of classical music, and b) does this particular recording add something to the interpretations already out there?
The advance release of Q3 GDP has been cancelled. Q3 GDP will be released on Dec 23rd.
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased from 2.8% q/q sarr to 3.0% The upward revision was largely due to the strong September durable goods report that led us to revise higher our equipment estimate. [December 5th estimate] emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +3.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.2pp to +2.6%. [December 5th estimate]
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 5, down from 3.8 percent on December 4. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.7 percent. [December 5th estimate]
1. Best DC art works? (FT) Surely Manet’s The Railway should be on the list? Does Dulles Airport count? The Iwo Jima Memorial or Vietnam Memorial? Maybe even the Air Force Memorial?
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2025.
CPI Shelter was up 3.6% year-over-year in September, down slightly from 3.6% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Housing (PCE) was up 3.7% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.
The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):
Key measures are above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.4, reflecting a 1.3% increase in November’s wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to October. The index is mostly unchanged compared to November 2024. The long-term average monthly move for November is a decrease of 0.6%. emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.
The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in November (seasonally adjusted) and were mostly unchanged YoY.
Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.1 billion (0.3 percent).
Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $70.7 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.09 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.7 percent.
...
From the preceding month, the PCE price index for September increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for September increased 2.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago. emphasis added
The September PCE price index increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.7 percent YoY in August.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, down from 2.9 percent in August.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income was at expectations and spending was below expectations.
The International Space Station is pictured from the SpaceX Dragon crew spacecraft during a fly around of the orbiting lab that took place following its undocking from the Harmony module’s space-facing port on Nov. 8, 2021. Image: ESA / NASA / T. Pesquet
After 25 years of continuous human presence, the International Space Station is heading into its final half decade of planned habitation.
NASA and its international partners are planning to intentionally deorbit the orbiting laboratory around 2030 or shortly thereafter. SpaceX was contracted valued at up to $843 million to build the United States Deorbit Vehicle (USDV), which will help guide the space station towards a splashdown in an uninhabited portion of the Pacific Ocean.
On Sunday, Dec. 7 NASA astronaut Mike Fincke will assume the role of ISS Commander, taking over from Russian cosmonaut Sergey Ryzhikov. The cosmonaut along with his colleague, Alexey Zubritsky and NASA astronaut Jonny Kim, will then board their Soyuz spacecraft and undock Monday evening to complete their 245-day mission in orbit.
The seven-member Expedition 73 crew gathers together for a portrait on Nov. 27, 2025, celebrating NASA astronaut Mike Fincke’s (center) 500 cumulative days in space over four missions since 2004. In the front from left are, Roscosmos cosmonaut Sergey Ryzhikov, NASA astronaut Zena Cardman, Mike Fincke, and NASA astronaut Jonny Kim. In the back are, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut Kimiya Yui and Roscosmos cosmonauts Oleg Platonov and Alexey Zubritsky. Image: NASA
With funding from the recent budget bill from Congress and renewed promise from NASA Administrator nominee Jared Isaacman to “maximize the scientific value of every dollar that Congress affords the agency,” the space station will continue to be a bustling hub of science for its final five years.
On Thursday, the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) announced an extension of its cooperative agreement with NASA to allow the non-profit to continue managing the ISS National Laboratory through 2030. This allows CASIS, through the ISS National Lab, to continue managing up to 50 percent of the flight allocation on cargo missions and up to 50 percent of U.S. Operating Crew time for science backed by them.
The ISS National Lab backed more than 940 payloads launched to the space station during the period of CASIS management, which began in 2011.
“For nearly 14 years, NASA has entrusted CASIS with managing this incredible asset for our nation and for the benefit of humanity,” said Ramon (Ray) Lugo, principal investigator and chief executive officer of CASIS. “We are honored that NASA has extended this unique partnership through 2030, and we will continue to work in collaboration, pushing the limits of space-based R&D for the benefit of life on Earth while driving a robust and sustainable market economy in space.”
Going to and fro
While the science planned for the ISS is in no short supply, the methods of getting it and its inhabitants to and from the space station is a trickier matter.
The most recent wrinkle came in the wake of the Soyuz MS-28 launch. After NASA astronaut Chris Williams along with Russian cosmonauts Sergey Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev, the mobile service platform, which allows technicians access to the engine section of the rocket prior to launch, collapsed into the flame duct at Site 31.
According to Russia-based journalist, Anatoly Zak, there are varying estimates of how long repairs could take, with at least one source telling him that it could take “up to two years” and that the immediate path forward wasn’t clear.
Sources: Roskosmos has a spare service platform similar to the one that crashed after Soyuz liftoff Thursday, however its installation will require a major work at the pad.
Updates: https://t.co/0e2wF3URflpic.twitter.com/V80KhNgFm2
In a statement published to its official Telegram account, Roscosmos said that the damaged would be fixed “in the nearest time,” but didn’t provide details. Spaceflight Now reached out to the Russian space agency for comment and is waiting to hear back.
For its part, NASA mostly diverted questions to Roscosmos. Russia’s Progress cargo spacecraft not only deliver supplies but also propellants for the Russian-side of the complex, used to maintain the station’s orbital altitude and also to assist with attitude control.
Some reboost functions are being performed by a SpaceX Cargo Dragon vehicle outfitted with a special boost kit in its unpressurized trunk. A NASA spokesperson said that this Dragon, launched to the ISS on the Commercial Resupply Services 33 (CRS-33) mission “will undock in late January 2026, before splashing down and returning critical science and hardware to teams on Earth.”
“Station has sufficient capability for reboost and attitude control, and there are no expected impacts to this capability,” a spokesperson said on Thursday.
M+139: Time lapse of SpaceX CRS-33 Dragon docking to the Node2 Forward Port last week, taken from the window of Crew-11’s Dragon. Nikon Z9 | 15mm | ISO 1000, f/1.8, 1/500s. pic.twitter.com/cfiMAmyeQ0
As for crew capabilities, it’s unclear how much the Site 31 pad damage will delay the launch of the Soyuz MS-29 mission, if at all. A July 2025 press release from NASA announcing its astronaut, Anil Menon, as a crew member stated that the Soyuz MS-29 mission would launch in June 2026.
However, on Thursday, aspokesperson for the agency said the mission “has always been scheduled to launch in July 2026.”
As for U.S. crewed missions, the SpaceX Crew-12 mission is the next up to bat after NASA confirmed that the next flight of a Boeing CST-100 Starliner spacecraft (Starliner-1) would be a cargo-only mission.
Starliner may carry crew on its next voyage, but that depends on the outcome of the Starliner-1 mission.
Sketching the future
In these final five years, NASA and its partners will begin winding down station operations and in the immediate years before its demise, the station will be slowly lowered using orbital drag and the station’s thrusters over the course of two to two-and-a-half years, according to Dana Weigel, ISS Program Manager, during a post-launch Crew-11 briefing.
“The Russian segment is prime for doing all of that. So, all of the attitude control, debris avoidance, anything we do with actively lowering is from the Russian segment,” Weigel said.
“Once we get down to the point of actually deorbiting, our current plan is to have the Russian segment do attitude control and the USDV do actual thrusting and boost,” she added. “That gives us additional layers of redundancy, so that if something happened with the attitude control, you can then switch over to the USDV. So, it’s very much an integrated plan and an integrated solution.”
An artist’s impression of SpaceX’s ISS Deorbit Vehicle pushing the lab toward a controlled re-entry and breakup in the 2030 timeframe, after a formal decision to retire the lab complex after three decades of operation. Graphic: SpaceX
One way that delays to future Progress vehicle launches may impact the station is also in stocking up on fuel for those future lowering burns as well as attitude control.
“Part of what Roscosmos is working on right now is fuel delivery. So, we’ve got to get the fuel reserves on station to the point where they can do their portions of this,” Weigel said in early August. “Latest predictions are that will probably be at the right level in early 2028 and we’ll probably start drifting down in mid-2028. We’ve got to make sure we have the fuel there and everyone’s ready to go. And then the USDV will arrive mid-2029.”
As for the crews onboard, assuming the current schedule holds, the final years onboard station may look something like the following:
Feb. 2026 – SpaceX Crew-12
July 2026 – Soyuz MS-29
Oct. 2026 – SpaceX Crew-13 or Starliner-2
March 2027 – Soyuz MS-30
June 2027 – Dragon or Starliner
Nov. 2027 – Soyuz MS-31
Feb. 2028 – Dragon or Starliner
July 2028 – Soyuz MS-32
Oct. 2028 – Dragon or Starliner
March 2029 – Soyuz MS-33
June 2029 – Dragon or Starliner
Nov. 2029 – Soyuz MS-34
Feb. 2030 – Dragon or Starliner
Asked whether NASA would want its final crew onboard station to be comprised of seasoned veterans instead of making sure its newest astronauts get flight experience Weigel told Spaceflight Now following the Crew-11 briefing that it’s a complicated question.
“I think there are so many different factors that can work on that. One of the things from a medical consideration standpoint is we do limit radiation exposure for crew members and if we’re asking for a year-long mission, we have to factor all of that in for crew health,” Weigel said.
“So, in an ideal sense, you’d say, ‘Yeah, send me somebody who’s flown, who’s great at spacewalks, this, that and the other.’ But too much experience puts you over the radiation limit.”
Sufficiently uncompromising meaning-making is unethical violence. The ethically optimal amount of anomie is not zero. These two claims frame the problem this essay addresses: the human drive to generate meaning is powerful and indispensable, yet it becomes ethically dangerous the moment it seeks to eliminate uncertainty. Meaning-making promises orientation, coherence, and moral clarity, but it often delivers these by rearranging the world to fit the inward demands of the self. When meaning-making becomes uncompromising—when it refuses correction, resists limits, and converts ambiguity into simple narratives—it harms others not by conscious intention but by narrative necessity. The cure is not to abolish meaning-making but to restrain it with duties, submit it to feedback, and cultivate the virtues that allow a person to withstand the discomfort of not knowing.
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Meaning-making begins with selective framing. Before any explicit judgment, the mind has already chosen what features of a situation are salient and what may be ignored. This selection is not neutral. It is the first ethical act, for it determines what kinds of meaning will later seem natural. Consider a citizen in a developed country confronted with a sudden influx of refugees. One person’s meaning-making drive foregrounds suffering families, bombed cities, the universal vulnerability of human beings. Another foregrounds insecurity, cultural disruption, or competition for jobs and services. Neither is yet making an ethical argument, but each has already accepted a frame that prepares different moral postures. The danger is that these frames present themselves as reality rather than as partial, interest-laden constructions. Meaning arises within these frames—“a nation of refuge,” “a nation under strain”—but the framing itself has already tilted moral perception before moral deliberation begins.
From this point, the meaning-making drive tends to fail in two predictable ways. The first is escalation. Meaning-making intensifies its own commitments, because stronger narratives feel more clarifying, more purposeful, more definitive. A humanitarian impulse grows into an uncompromising demand for unlimited admission; a cautious impulse grows into a sweeping story of existential threat. The second failure is insulation. Once a narrative reduces discomfort or stabilizes identity, the meaning-making drive protects it from challenge. A citizen who sees openness as the core of their moral identity treats any acknowledgment of limits as betrayal; one who sees cultural stability as essential treats any refugee as a symbolic danger. Escalation inflates meaning beyond proportion; insulation petrifies it beyond revision. In both cases, the refugee—the actual person—disappears beneath the narrative.
A separate set of distortions emerges when the meaning-making drive serves as a defense against anomie. Sometimes the mind copes with uncertainty by instrumentalizing others, using them as props to stabilize the self. Refugees become exemplars of national virtue or of national decline, depending on what story quiets the citizen’s anxiety. At other times, the drive collapses entirely into nihilistic drift: if meaning cannot be stabilized, it is abandoned. In this mode, nothing seems to matter; duties are dismissed as futile; consequences as unknowable; moral engagement as pointless. This resignation is not ethically neutral. It withholds care precisely when care is needed and excuses refusal as lucidity. These failures—escalation, insulation, instrumentalization, and nihilistic drift—share a common origin: an intolerance for uncertainty. Without some capacity to endure ambiguity, meaning-making will either harden into dogma or dissolve into defeat.
Ethical frameworks exist, in part, to regulate these distortions. Deontological constraints act as fixed boundaries that the meaning-making drive cannot legitimately cross. Whatever narrative a citizen constructs about refugees, it cannot justify cruelty, arbitrary exclusion, or the return of vulnerable people to mortal danger. Duties do not intensify with fear or expand with idealism. They stand as limits beyond which meaning-making loses its moral claim. Consequentialist reasoning provides a different form of discipline by requiring the meaning-making drive to submit its preferred narratives to evidence. Predictions about security, integration, and public resources cannot be accepted merely because they support an emotionally satisfying meaning. Consequentialism disrupts insulation by insisting that narratives remain corrigible. Yet it, too, is vulnerable when meaning-making supplies the models rather than responds to them. A fearful narrative can dress itself in data; a romantic one can do the same. For consequentialism to function ethically, it must operate within the boundaries set by deontology and under virtues that discourage overconfidence.
Virtue governs the moral posture from which one interprets both duties and consequences. In the refugee context, compassion prevents dehumanization; practical wisdom prevents symbolic overreach; humility prevents meaning-making from mistaking its own perspective for self-evident truth; courage prevents it from collapsing into fear or nihilism. Virtue is what makes it possible to live with the ethically optimal amount of anomie—the portion of uncertainty that keeps meaning-making from hardening into violence or evaporating into indifference. Virtue thickens the person against the temptation to resolve tension prematurely.
Complexity magnifies every one of these dangers. Refugee movements arise from opaque geopolitical causes, produce uncertain social and economic outcomes, and provoke unpredictable reactions. In such conditions, meaning-making becomes more necessary and less trustworthy. The clearer a narrative feels in a complex situation, the more likely it is a product of the drive’s need for orientation rather than the world’s actual structure. Escalation becomes easier because partial information can be framed as decisive. Insulation becomes easier because counter-evidence is ambiguous enough to dismiss. Instrumentalization becomes easier because the mind longs for a stable story in an unstable world. Nihilistic drift becomes easier because real control is limited, and narrative coherence feels beyond reach.
This is why deontological limits, consequentialist feedback, and virtuous posture become more—not less—important as complexity rises. They prevent the meaning-making drive from mistaking its own simplifications for ethical insight. They ensure that meaning remains answerable to moral reality rather than replacing it. Deontology halts the drive at the point where harm becomes narratively tempting. Consequentialism forces the drive to engage with consequences rather than fantasies. Virtue cultivates the emotional resilience required to tolerate uncertainty without fleeing into zealotry or despair.
We can now restate the guiding propositions with their full force. Sufficiently uncompromising meaning-making is unethical violence because it subordinates other people to the inward demand for significance. The ethically optimal amount of anomie is not zero because only a remainder of uncertainty can prevent meaning-making from converting its preferences into universal truths. Ethics is the discipline that keeps meaning-making from overrunning reality. Meaning, when disciplined, can illuminate moral life. Meaning-making, when uncompromised, will distort it. The task is not to deny the meaning-making drive but to contain it, so that its need for orientation does not eclipse the world to which we are answerable.
Summarize the protocol we used to produce this essay
We followed a clear, iterative co-authoring protocol that combined conceptual scaffolding, adversarial refinement, and stylistic calibration. In compact form, the protocol had these steps:
Establish a thesis–antithesis frame. We began with a conceptual tension (deontology vs consequentialism under complexity) and explored both sides without trying to resolve them.
Introduce controlled perturbations. You added constraints—e.g., allowing rules and goals to evolve—forcing the argument to adjust rather than collapse into familiar positions.
Add a mediating dimension. Virtue ethics was layered in not as a third theory but as a mode of embodiment. This created a three-channel regulatory model (rules, outcomes, posture).
Apply adversarial meaning-making analysis. We then introduced a second-order problem: meaning-making itself as an ethically distorting upstream force. This opened failure modes (escalation, insulation, instrumentalization, nihilistic drift).
Stress-test claims with a throughline example. A real-world scenario—citizens responding to refugees—was used to illustrate how each theoretical move behaves under pressure and complexity.
Reassess the balance of the argument. We revisited the thesis/antithesis in light of meaning-making distortions and complexity, updating the relative strengths and confidence.
Formulate leading propositions. You asked for aphoristic, Frankfurt-style claims; we generated candidates and converged on:
“Sufficiently uncompromising meaning-making is unethical violence.”
“The ethically optimal amount of anomie is not zero.”
Adopt a stylistic template. We used On Bullshit as a tonal reference and aligned the essay’s voice accordingly—plainspoken, morally direct, conceptually economical.
Draft section-by-section in analytical mode. Each section was written as rigorous discrete prose, with the meaning-making drive consistently distinguished from the meanings it produces.
Merge and smooth conceptual architecture. You requested continuous prose with minimal headings and no lists; we collapsed the scaffolding into a single argumentative flow.
Finalize as a continuous essay. The final product presents the reasoning without visible seams: the propositions, the refugee example, the failure modes, the ethical frameworks, and the synthesis appear as one coherent movement.
"Ludwig Minelli, who became a leader of the death-with-dignity movement as the founder of Dignitas, a Swiss organization with more than 10,000 members that provides and advocates for access to assisted suicide, died Saturday, ending his life through the process he helped promote. He was 92 and would have celebrated his 93rd birthday on Friday.
...
"Mr. Minelli, a lawyer specializing in human rights, was the general secretary of Dignitas, which since 1998 has helped thousands of people from around the world, including from countries where assisted suicide is illegal, to die.
...
"Mr. Minelli and his group claimed responsibility for major milestones in the field of assisted death. In 2011 the European Court of Human Rights confirmed the right and freedom of a competent individual to decide on the manner and the time of their own end of life. In 2022, the German Federal Constitutional Court declared a law that made providing professional assistance in suicide impossible in Germany was unconstitutional. The same year, Austria also revoked a blanket prohibition on assisted suicide.
"In recent years, Australia, Canada and New Zealand have shifted their stance on assisted dying.
"Dignitas has participated in nearly 4,200 accompanied suicides since Mr. Minelli founded the group in 1998, the group reported in 2024. More than a third of those people lived in Germany, and there were over 600 people each from France and Britain. The group says it has more than 10,000 members. "
Many incarcerated women and trans people are forced to choose between maintaining their dignity and health — or facing penalties.
The tampons were stacked and bound together with a rubber band. The incarcerated people at the Patrick O’Daniel Unit — a women’s prison in Central Texas — referred to these bundles as “dynamite sticks.”
Behind bars, these household items could be a liability. People on their periods might beg their peers for tampons or even take them. Correctional officers might write someone up for having more than the 12 tampons permitted per month, which was the practice until the state removed those limits in 2019. The punishments for those violations could range from losing phone or visitation privileges, to fines to solitary confinement.
Jennifer Toon would hide her dynamite sticks behind the bookshelves of the prison library where she worked. “I saw girls get written up because they’re hoarding. Like, they’re stashing in their cubicle,” said Toon, who was incarcerated twice over two decades and last released in 2018.
But the prison commissary at that time could barely keep extra tampons in stock, she said — and that was assuming people had the money to afford them. To guard against this low supply, Toon and others at the prison would collect a personal stash and tuck them into nooks and crannies so they wouldn’t face consequences. Any infractions on their record could affect something as significant as their eligibility for parole.
“Who wants to get a major case over having extra tampons? And that sounds really ridiculous to people on the outside, but I mean, that would happen,” said Toon, who is now the executive director of Lioness Justice Impacted Women’s Alliance, an advocacy nonprofit in Austin, Texas.
The system was a vicious cycle, and in many cases it felt like a trap. Across the country, incarcerated women, trans and nonbinary people are punished for having periods, according to a new analysis published by the Prison Policy Initiative (PPI), in partnership with researcher Miriam Vishniac, the founder and director of the Prison Flow Project, a database focused on access to menstrual products in U.S. prisons.
While prison disciplinary policies do not cite periods directly, the PPI report identified at least six types of prison policies used to punish menstruating people: These include rules concerning damage of prison property, personal hygiene requirements, contraband restrictions, “feigning” illness and being absent from an assigned location.
For example, in Texas, where Toon was incarcerated, “any item possessed in excess of the amounts authorized,” could be considered contraband and punished as a “level 2” offense, which is the second most severe offense category in the state’s disciplinary rulebook. This can result in a loss of good conduct credits that go toward eligibility for parole, educational or work opportunities and other benefits.
Stories from people inside underscore a larger culture of control and dehumanization that incarcerated people endure, Toon and Vishniac said. It also reflects how little attention is given to the health needs of women and trans people in the criminal legal system. Prisons and jails are largely designed with cisgender men in mind, given that they make up about 90 percent of the country’s incarcerated population.
Formerly incarcerated people like Toon have reported male correctional staff and supervisors being oblivious to how menstruation works. They don’t appear to understand, for example, why women might go through more toilet paper than incarcerated cisgender men, or that the quality among different menstrual products varies.
“I knew I needed the tampons because the pads that we were issued were just terrible,” Toon said. “They’re going to fall apart in your panties.”
People using standard store-bought products outside of prison will typically go through three to six tampons or menstrual pads each day during a period, which can last for seven days. But the menstrual pads provided in prisons were “not much more useful than a panty liner,” said Stacy Burnett, 50, who was incarcerated for three stretches of time in New York before her release in 2019. During Burnett’s time inside, each person received two packs of 12 pads as well as about 8 tampons per month. The tampons were better for flow control, Burnett said, but could only handle lighter flow days and would still require using a pad as a backup.
“The quality of products provided or available for purchase is usually extremely poor — so poor that they do not fulfill their intended function,” said Vishniac, who completed her dissertation at the University of Edinburgh on the topic. “People have to use six pads at a time to prevent leakage, but they have strict limits on how many they are allowed.”
As a result of the limited access to period products and the poor quality, menstruating people have several options:
Bleed freely through their uniforms — and risk being written up for poor hygiene or damaging prison property
Hoard and hide as many tampons as they could find (or purchase from the commissary) — and risk being written up for contraband
Barter and trade tampons with other incarcerated people — and risk being written up for for improper exchange of property
Make their own tampons out of whatever they could get their hands on: toilet paper, dirty rags, fabric torn from a t-shirt or filling from their mattresses — and risk both an infection and being written up for misuse of prison property
Use their tampons and pads for multiple days — and risk an infection like Toxic Shock Syndrome. Many guidelines recommend that menstrual products are changed every 4 to 6 hours.
Or, they could “beg like dogs” for more period products, Vishniac said. “It was never as simple as asking for a product and getting it, because employees are trained to question every request incarcerated people make,” she said.
Trans and gender-nonconforming people who menstruate often faced added scrutiny when requesting tampons, and were mocked or questioned for needing them. (Emily Scherer for The 19th)
For Nathan Osborne, asking prison staff for period products opened the door to being mocked and degraded. Osborne, a 65-year-old transgender man, first became incarcerated in California in 1981 and was released from custody three months ago. He had a complicated relationship with menstruating as a man and often felt shame.
It didn’t help that when he requested menstrual products, “You would get the look; you would get, ‘Oh, men don’t have periods, why do you need a tampon?” Osborne said. That humiliation took a toll, so he started making his own tampons by tightly wadding up tissue paper and inserting it inside himself. Plenty of others did this, he said, but one day he was caught during a strip search.
“[The wad of paper] stuck out a little bit. I didn’t have it all the way in,” he said. “So they took me and had me strapped down and had the doctor go up in me and pull it out, because they were trying to say that it was narcotics.”
Osborne said the doctor warned him that doing this again could cause an infection and sent him on his way. He felt violated by the experience, but he also left with a lingering question: What other choice did he have?
Oftentimes, the most damaging punishment behind bars isn’t being officially written up or losing privileges. It’s the demeaning comments from prison staff. Vishniac said all staff do not participate in this culture of shame, but the ones who do instill a sense of fear that ripples through women’s correctional units.
Like Osborne, Toon experienced strip searches while imprisoned before 2018. She remembers one day when she was scheduled to leave the prison to attend a conference for peer health educators, incarcerated women assigned to teach others in prison about sexual violence prevention, HIV/AIDS awareness and other health-related topics. Getting to attend the conference was “a treat,” Toon said. It was something she was looking forward to.
But in order to leave the prison, she had to be strip searched. Toon knew the routine: She and the other incarcerated women shuffled into the tiny room known as the “strip shack” near the back gate of the prison and began to undress. Typically this process can require the removal of clothing, underwear, as well as any pads or tampons. To avoid having to remove her tampon in front of 20 people, Toon said she learned a trick to clip the tampon string short enough so the staff could not tell. But this time, a woman staffer noticed the extra unwrapped tampon that fell out of Toon’s pocket.
“I know you have a tampon in there.” — “there” being Toon’s vagina.
“I want to see it,” Toon recalled the woman officer saying.
“You’re not going anywhere until I see it.”
“So here I am, in front of 20 women, I squat down and I had to get in it,” Toon recalled. “I had to reach all the way in there and get that little string and I pulled it out.”
Droplets of blood fell to the floor as Toon pulled out her second-day tampon. The woman officer “looked at me with so much disgust,” Toon said. Toon looked over at her friend, Janet, who had tears running down her face.
Some cities and states are trying to make a shift in this culture. In response to questions from The 19th, a spokeswoman with the Texas Department of Criminal Justice said the culture Toon described “would be inaccurate to the state of TDCJ today.” In 2019, the department started providing unlimited access to menstrual products, according to the TDCJ spokeswoman. The department also “completed a large educational campaign,” concerning menstrual health care in women’s facilities, she said, and hired a consultant to work with the agency to improve female services and programming.
New York, Maryland, Alabama and Colorado have passed legislation requiring that people in state prisons receive menstrual products for free, though implementation and enforcement have been inconsistent. At least 14 states have passed a Dignity of Incarcerated Women Act aimed at improving certain conditions, including the quality and accessibility of period products.
But Vishniac emphasized that a singular law is simply a Band-Aid that does not address the root of the larger prison culture.
“I think some of the bigger changes that are really necessary — the oversight, the accountability, the transparency — those require us to grapple a bit more with a system that we have a really hard time questioning,” Vishniac said. “If we really, truly want to make sure that nobody is bleeding on themselves or punished for bleeding on themselves, we have to also understand that this stigmatization, and mass incarceration and warehousing people is part of that.”
To let Americans buy smaller cars, Trump had to weaken fuel-efficiency standards. Does that sound crazy? Small cars, of course, have much higher fuel efficiency. Yet this is exactly how the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards work.
Photo Keith Hopper, https://www.iobt.org/temple-blog/210-small-lessons-from-a-kei-truck-by-keith-hopper
Since 2011, fuel-economy targets scale with a vehicle’s “footprint” (wheelbase × track width). Big vehicles get lenient targets; small vehicles face demanding ones. A microcar that gets 40 MPG might be judged against a target of 50-60 MPG, while a full-size truck doing 20 MPG can satisfy a 22 MPG requirement.. The small car is clearly more efficient, yet it fails the rule that the truck passes.
The policy was meant to be fair to producers of large vehicles, but it rewards bloat. Make a car bigger and compliance gets easier. Add crash standards built around heavier vehicles and it’s obvious why the US market produces crossovers and trucks while smaller and much less expensive city-cars, familiar in Europe and Asia, never show up. At a press conference rolling back CAFE standards, Trump noted he’d seen small “kei” cars on his Asia trip—”very small, really cute”—and directed the Transportation Secretary to clear regulatory barriers so they could be built and sold in America.
Trump’s rollback—cutting the projected 2031 fleet average from roughly 50.4 MPG to 34.5 MPG—relaxes the math enough that microcars could comply again. Only Kafka would appreciate a fuel-economy system that makes small fuel-efficient cars hard to sell and giant trucks easy. Yet the looser rules remove a barrier to greener vehicles while also handing a windfall to big truck makers. A little less Kafka, a little more Tullock.
In the 2010s, a bunch of right-wing types suddenly became big fans of Martin Luther King Jr.’s views on race. If you saw someone on Twitter quote MLK’s nostrum that people should “not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character”, it was almost certainly someone on the right — quite a change from the type of person who probably would have cited King’s words half a century earlier. This is from an Associated Press story back in 2013:
King’s quote has become a staple of conservative belief that “judged by the color of their skin” includes things such as unique appeals to certain voter groups, reserving government contracts for Hispanic-owned businesses, seeking more non-white corporate executives, or admitting black students to college with lower test scores.
Many progressives railed against the idea of a colorblind society, arguing that statistical disparities between racial groups — income gaps, wealth gaps, incarceration gaps, and so on — couldn’t be remedied without writing race into official policy and becoming much more race-conscious in our daily lives.
In that kind of environment, it’s understandable that lots of people on the right would turn to individualist principles like the ones espoused by MLK in his famous speech. Asking to be judged by the content of your character is a reasonable defense against people who are trying to judge you based on your membership in a racial group.
[I]t would be a shame if this single act of betrayal became the excuse for deporting all Afghan refugees in the U.S…Tens of thousands are building new lives here in peace and are contributing to their communities. They shouldn’t be blamed for the violent act of one man.
Stephen Miller, Trump’s powerful Homeland Security Advisor, responded with a dismissal of individualism and an indictment of Afghans as a group:
This is the great lie of mass migration. You are not just importing individuals. You are importing societies. No magic transformation occurs when failed states cross borders. At scale, migrants and their descendants recreate the conditions, and terrors, of their broken homelands.
Federal prosecutors charged dozens of people with felonies, accusing them of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from a government program meant to keep children fed during the Covid-19 pandemic…At first, many in the state saw the case as a one-off abuse…But…Over the last five years, law enforcement officials say, fraud took root in pockets of Minnesota’s Somali diaspora as scores of individuals made small fortunes by setting up companies that billed state agencies for millions of dollars’ worth of social services that were never provided…Federal prosecutors say…more than $1 billion in taxpayers’ money has been stolen[.]
In the wake of those revelations, Trump condemned Somalis as a group:
Here are Trump’s exact words:
I don’t want em in our country. Their country’s no good for a reason. Their country stinks…I could say that about other countries too…We don’t want em…We have to rebuild our country. You know, our country’s at a tipping point. We could go bad…We’re going to go the wrong way if we keep taking garbage into our country. Ilhan Omar is garbage. Her friends are garbage…And from where they came from, they got nothing…When they come from Hell, and they complain, and do nothing but bitch, we don’t want em in our country. Let em go back to where they came from, and fix it.
Here you see the very same idea that Stephen Miller expressed. Trump and Miller both judge people by their ethnic group, and they judge those ethnic groups by the condition of their ancestral country. Somalia is a bad place, therefore Somalis are bad, therefore if you’re a Somali you’re bad and you shouldn’t be allowed into America. Afghanistan is a bad place, therefore Afghans are bad, therefore if you’re an Afghan you’re bad and you shouldn’t be allowed into America.
In fact, this idea was very popular a century ago, when America enacted harsh restrictions on immigration. Restrictionists argued that immigrants from South and East Europe were undesirable, because South and East Europe were relatively underdeveloped places. For example, here’s what Francis Walker, the president of MIT and a staunch opponent of immigration, wrote in The Atlantic in 1896:
Only a short time ago, the immigrants from southern Italy, Hungary, Austria, and Russia together made up hardly more than one per cent of our immigration. To-day the proportion has risen to something like forty per cent…The entrance into our political, social, and industrial life of such vast masses of peasantry, degraded below our utmost conceptions, is a matter which no intelligent patriot can look upon without the gravest apprehension and alarm. These people have no history behind them which is of a nature to give encouragement…They are beaten men from beaten races; representing the worst failures in the struggle for existence…They have none of the ideas and aptitudes which fit men to take up readily and easily the problem of self-care and self-government. [emphasis mine]
This is a form of racial collectivism. It’s judging people by ethnic, racial, and national groups instead of as individuals. In his landmark 1955 book Strangers in the Land, which chronicles the anti-immigration movement of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, historian John Higham labeled this attitude “racism”. Today, of course, we can’t use that word, since it has been repurposed to mean so many other things. But the word feels like a perfect fit — it’s an ideology (an “ism”) that holds that people are to be judged according to the collective accomplishments of their race.
When I see people on the right spouting this sort of rhetoric, I think: What happened to MLK? What happened to judging people based on the content of their character? What happened to the colorblind society? What happened between 2018 and now that makes collective judgment of racial groups suddenly ok?
The answer, of course, is “The right got the upper hand in American politics.” It turns out that individualism is a bit like free speech — a principle that lots of people tend to support when their tribe is losing, only to abandon it as soon as they’re back on top. A lot of people really do believe in individualism, of course, especially in America. But a lot of others just use it as a cynical shield when they’re on the defensive. And we’re finding out that most of the MAGA movement was always the latter type.
MAGA’s overriding goal is immigration restriction. They care about this much more than any other policy issue — more than inflation, more than trade, more than crime, more than anything. And the reason they want immigration restriction, I believe, is because they think that Somalis and Afghans and Haitians and so on are going to make America more like those countries. When Trump and Miller talk about this, I think they’re being completely honest. And after Trump is gone, I think this idea will be at the core of the new right-wing ideology that will sustain the MAGA movement. Racial collectivism is absolutely at the core of their worldview.
But MAGA has a big problem: While that worldview has some appeal to Americans, overall they aren’t on board. Every poll we have shows pro-immigration sentiment on the rise again, after a dip during the Biden years:
A lot of Americans are also in favor of individualism — that is, of treating people based on their individual traits rather than what group they belong to. Americans of most races supported the recent Supreme Court decision banning racial preferences in university admissions; even black Americans were about evenly split. And while Americans disagree about lots of racial issues, they tend to overwhelmingly say they support things like equal opportunity regardless of race.
And although there are differences in American attitudes toward immigrants from different regions of the world, the differences aren’t huge, and they don’t perfectly line up with how developed the regions are. For example, here’s a 2015 poll by Pew, finding that immigration from Africa is viewed more favorably than immigration from the much more developed regions of Latin America and the Middle East:
So although some Americans are probably evaluating immigrants based on their racial group and on the condition of their source country, like Trump and Miller are, Americans in general probably don’t think this way. They get mad at illegal immigration, and at the disorderly quasi-legal immigration that Biden tolerated — but illegal entry is an individual action, not a group trait.
Which makes sense. The U.S. immigration system is highly selective; Lazear (2017) shows that selectivity accounts for a very large fraction of the average educational attainment of different immigrant groups in America.
As Matt Yglesias points out, nowhere is this more evident than with Indian immigrants. The country of India is still poor; despite solid recent growth, its GDP per capita is lower than that of El Salvador or Guatemala. Infrastructure has improved a lot but is still subpar, and the country has pockets of startling poverty. By the racial-collectivist logic of Miller and Trump, or of the restrictionists of a century ago, Indian immigrants should be turning America into a third-world country.
Nor has Indian immigration turned anywhere in America into a version of India. Fremont, California is probably the city over 100,000 population with the greatest percentage of Indians — about 29%. And yet Fremont is one of the cleanest, nicest, richest, safest towns in the whole country, with a murder rate so low that many European countries would envy it, and arguably the best public schools in the country. A recent survey identified Fremont as the happiest city in America.
A big part of this, of course, is because immigration from India is so selective. India is the world’s most populous country; it’s not too hard to grab a few million smart people from a country that big. But this isn’t the only reason. American institutions are also important.
As another example, take El Paso. The overwhelming majority of people in El Paso are of Mexican descent. Mexican immigration is among the least selective, because Mexico is so close to America and there was so much illegal immigration in the past. And yet despite being filled with ethnic Mexicans, El Paso looks absolutely nothing like Juarez, the Mexican city that sits right next to it on the opposite side of the border. El Paso’s murder rate is 3.8, very low for an American city, while Juarez is one of the most violent, chaotic cities on planet Earth.
Mexicans didn’t turn El Paso into Mexico, and the reason is American institutions. America’s economy offers El Paso’s residents the chance to get ahead without joining drug gangs. American culture is a more positive-sum, less violent culture than Mexico’s. And the U.S. Military has a big presence in El Paso, because Fort Bliss is there. Even without selectivity, institutions matter a lot.
So Stephen Miller is just flat-out wrong. Immigrants do not recreate the conditions of their homelands in America. Yes, there is some amount of carryover, including some negative influences like the old Sicilian mafia, or modern gangs like MS-13. But the differences between American immigrant populations and their source countries far outweigh the similarities.
In order for MAGA to win, they need to convince America otherwise — they need to persuade you, the American citizen, that the fiction that undergirds their ideology is actually true. To this end, they need to get you to judge people in terms of their group, rather than as individuals. So they keep looking around for a group they think they can convince you to fear, to disdain, and ultimately to hate.
Remember last year, during the campaign season, when Trump and JD Vance declared that Haitian immigrants were eating people’s pets in Springfield, Ohio?
It was all B.S., of course. News crews descended on Springfield, but not even the most right-wing reporters could find a credible report of a single pet being eaten. JD Vance awkwardly begged the internet to “keep the cat memes flowing”, and never apologized for smearing a whole group of people, but at some point everyone realized it was a hoax.
That’s why you didn’t hear anything about cat-eating Haitian-Ohioans before the campaign season of 2024. And that’s why you haven’t heard anything about it since then. It wasn’t real; you were being played.
Now they’re trying again, with the Somalis of Minnesota. This time, they probably have a better shot at success. For one thing, Somalis in America are much poorer than their Haitian-American counterparts — Haitians in the U.S. have slightly below average income and average education levels, they commit few crimes, and they’re not prominent in politics. They’re basically just quiet middle-class people living pretty normal American lives.
Somalis, on the other hand, are an extremely poor group, with very high poverty rates and much lower income than Haitians, or immigrants in general; this is due to the fact that most of them are refugees or descendants of refugees, which are the least selected type of immigrants. Somalis are Muslim, unlike Haitians, which makes them both visually distinct (because of the hijab) and mentally associated with civilizational conflict. They’re not known for violence, but now they’re associated with Minnesota’s massive organized welfare fraud.
And unlike the Haitians of Ohio, the Somalis of Minnesota are prominent and powerful in local politics. They managed to do a sort of takeover of the Minneapolis Democratic Party, nominating one of their own, Omar Fateh, as the Democratic candidate over incumbent mayor Jacob Frey. Frey managed to beat Fateh in the general election, but only by appealing to a rival Somali clan and making flamboyant appeals to the Somali community.
This is hardly unprecedented in American politics — Irish immigrants built political machines that dominated the politics of many American cities in the 19th century. Given many decades, it’s likely that Somalis will assimilate, the same way the Irish did, and turn the organizational skills that allowed them to swindle the state of Minnesota and take over the Minneapolis Democrats to some more constructive use, like building drone factories (or whatever humans are doing 80 years from now).
But “many decades” is a very long time for Americans to wait in order not to worry about culture clash. And Americans aren’t used to urban ethnic machine politics these days,1 and the notion of an iconic American city being at the mercy of clan rivalries from one of the world’s poorest and most violent nations will naturally lend force to Trump’s argument that Somalis are trying to make Minnesota into another Somalia.
If Trump and MAGA succeed in getting a critical mass of regular Americans to reject Somalis categorically, as a racial group, then they win a crucial victory — not over the Somalis, who pose them no actual threat, but in terms of changing the terms of the discourse around race and immigration in America.
Once MAGA can convince you that “Are the Somalis bad?” is a legitimate question to ask, they then pretty much automatically get to ask the same question about every other group in America. They get to ask “Are Afghans bad?”, and “Are Haitians bad?”. They’ll get to ask “Are Jews bad?”, “Are Indians bad?”, and “Are Chinese people bad?”. Eventually they might even get around to asking “Are Italians bad?”, and so on. They will push as far as they can.
Even if those questions get answered in the affirmative — even if Italians and Indians and Haitians can all successfully defend their right to be in America by appealing to the court of MAGA opinion — the mere fact that they had to defend themselves as racial groups, instead of as individuals, will redefine what America is all about. It will move America toward being an estate society — a society where groups are accorded rights and privileges instead of individuals.
In the 20th century, American liberals successfully overcame all of the people who wanted to make the country a racial estate society — Jim Crow was outlawed, immigration laws were made (more or less) race-neutral, and so on. Liberals accomplished this by appealing to Americans’ deep-seated value of individualism — of the idea that people shouldn’t be judged by the group they were born into. That idea, captured most eloquently in MLK’s famous speech but repeated ad infinitum by leaders, writers, and activists, ultimately carried the day and made America the liberal nation I grew up in.
What I fear is that by embracing identity politics in the 2010s, progressives have thrown away liberals’ ultimate weapon. Appeals to individualism carry much less moral force when the people making those appeals just spent the last decade decrying colorblindness as a tool of systemic racism (or embracing people who made that claim).
This is not to say that rightists’ push to turn America into a balkanized racial hierarchy is progressives’ fault — it isn’t. Rightists are always trying to do this sort of thing; it’s not a reaction to anything progressives did. But there’s a reason this sort of racial collectivism was defeated and suppressed for a hundred years, and there’s a reason it’s breaking through now when it couldn’t before.
To be honest, they weren’t very relaxed about it in the 19th century either; anti-Irish sentiment resulted in vicious pogroms, gang wars, and whole newspapers devoted to spreading vicious anti-Irish rumors.
In recent months, it has begun dawning on US lawmakers that, absent significant intervention, China will land humans on the Moon before the United States can return there with the Artemis Program.
So far, legislators have yet to take meaningful action on this—a $10 billion infusion into NASA’s budget this summer essentially provided zero funding for efforts needed to land humans on the Moon this decade. But now a subcommittee of the House Committee on Space, Science, and Technology has begun reviewing the space agency’s policy, expressing concerns about Chinese competition in civil spaceflight.
During a hearing on Thursday in Washington, DC, the subcommittee members asked a panel of experts how NASA could maintain its global leadership in space over China in general, and more specifically, how to improve the Artemis Program to reach the Moon more quickly.
HOUSTON, TX – December 3, 2025 – For more than three decades, Celestis, Inc. has transformed remembrance into exploration, sending the names, ashes, and DNA of pioneers and visionaries into […]
In this episode, former NASA commercial space division chief Phil McAlister sits down with host David Ariosto for a wide-ranging conversation about the future of human spaceflight, NASA’s internal culture, and the explosive growth of the commercial space sector.
Roscosmos has replaced a cosmonaut assigned to the next Crew Dragon mission to the International Space Station for reasons neither it nor NASA will disclose.
U.S. Space Command’s push for “dynamic space operations” — the ability to maneuver in orbit without worrying about running dry — demands logistics the military has never had.
This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political pressure, I develop a narrative identification strategy based on President Nixon’s pressure on Fed Chair Burns. I exploit this narrative through restrictions on a structural vector autoregression that includes the President-Fed interaction data. I find that political pressure to ease monetary policy (i) increases the price level strongly and persistently, (ii) does not lead to positive effects on real economic activity, (iii) contributed to inflationary episodes outside of the Nixon era, and (iv) transmits differently from a typical monetary policy easing, by having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon, for six months, raises the price level by about 7% over the following decade.
That is not entirely a positive omen for the current day.
SpaceX and Amazon stand to get about 4% of the nearly $20 billion that states have proposed for rural broadband buildouts, representing roughly 21% of the locations under the federal BEAD program.
Welcome, Jared Isaacman. We who love NASA, or at least the idea of NASA, wish you the very best in taking leadership of the great American space agency. You seem to be an agent for change and NASA sorely needs that. Its human spaceflight program, which garners most of its public attention and financial support, […]
To all of you readers who submitted noxious nominations for the 17th annual Golden Duke awards, we thank you for your service. It’s not easy to sift back through the grime that’s caked atop the first year of President Trump’s second term to elevate and celebrate the scandals and the creeps who remind us of the real reason for the season (honoring depravity).
Reading through your submissions was an unpleasant stroll down memory lane ❤️. How could I have forgotten about Rep. Nancy Mace’s (R-SC) manic meltdown at the Charleston Airport over a vehicle mixup? Or Trump ally and alleged sex pest Alan Dershowitz’s legal threats against a pierogi purveyor at the West Tisbury Farmers’ Market? Or Education Department (RIP) Secretary Linda McMahon referring to AI as A1? Amid such horrors as Trump’s mass deportation mission and invasions of U.S. cities, it was a marquee year for buffoonery, too.
Because of this, Allegra Kirkland and I created some new categories to match this unprecedented era of acting oafishly. You’ll notice, we kept President Trump and Stephen Miller (who one reader called “Nosferatu reincarnated”) off the list of nominees this year because they’re evil and and responsible for more scandals (and abuses of human rights) than we could possibly list. They’d win each category by a landslide and where’s the fun in that?
So, here’s our attempt to make it up to you with some new nonsense. In addition to some perennial Golden Duke categories, we also ask you to select winners this year in the following: Meritorious Achievement in Grifting, Best Supporting Hatchet Man, Biggest Journalism Fail and Most Egregious Ring-Kissing.
You’ll find the nominees and the voting forms below. Reminder: If you submitted a nomination and we published it here, we’ll send you an email soon. Happy Duking and may the sickest sleazebag win!
“Let your haters be your waiters when you sit down at the table of success.”
Eric Adams
Best Scandal — General Interest
Trump’s $300 Million White House Ballroom
Kash Patel flying his girlfriend to sporting events is tempting but I must go for the raw indulgence of the gold plated ballroom funded by shady crypto guys for most on the nose.
— TPM reader Riley
Kristi Noem’s Ghoulish Photo Ops
ICE Barbie Kristi Noem MUST be on the list for 2025. Her cosplay as a Mar-a-Lago smiling security professional as ICE tramples on the Bill of Rights probably deserves a win, not just a mention.
— TPM reader “TK”
Podcaster Dan Bongino’s Conspiracy Theory Fail
For being the most dog-who-caught-the-car man in recent memory, building a career promoting conspiracy theories he then sheepishly had to walk back as deputy FBI director, a role to which he was reportedly so ill-suited, the Trump administration had to appoint a *second* deputy FBI director.
— TPM Executive Editor John Light
Eric Adams’ Entire Mayoral Administration
Eric Adams’ lone term as New York City mayor was so weird and wild that it defies normal Duke categorization. After running for office while allegedly actually living in New Jersey, Adams declared himself the “swag” mayor as he proceeded to spend an inordinate amount of time in nightclubs and enriched various cronies.
Adams and his inner circle were soon hit with multiple indictments. In Adams’ case, he was accused of trading political favors to Turkish officials for airline upgrades and vacations to Istanbul. As if all that wasn’t nuts enough, the case against the mayor ended in a bizarre saga where he received a pardon from Trump and mounted an increasingly quixotic re-election bid while his new pals from the White House tried to block Adams’ progressive successor by reportedly tempting the mayor with a job in Saudi Arabia.
Along with all of this stunning corruption, Adams left us with some incredible catchphrases including his signature “let your haters be your waiters when you sit down at the table of success.” While pandering before various ethnic audiences, he declared New York “the Islamabad,” “the Istanbul,” and “the Zagreb of America,” among others. And, in his final months, the mayor brought us a sex scandal complete with a bizarre self-published book and an exit interview where he boasted about “the firmness of my body.” Wait on, haters.
— TPM Reporter Hunter Walker
Vote now!
Meritorious Achievement in Grifting
Winnie Greco Let the Chips Fall Where They May
Red string and corkboard are required to keep straight all the ancillary characters in Eric Adams’ corrupt final months, but I raise a Pringle to this Adams confidant (formerly forced to resign as his liaison after being targeted by multiple investigations) for handing a local reporter $300 stuffed in a bag of Herr’s Sour Cream & Onion ripple potato chips. The bungled attempt to bribe the media missed the mark, but her flavor preferences deserve applause.
— TPM Reporter Kate Riga
Relaxium’s Very Own Mike Huckabee
The United States Ambassador to the nation of Israel continuing to hawk a quack sleep aid on television both as an embarrassment to our country and a perfect example of the shamelessness of this administration (Mike Huckabee and Relaxium Sleep in case, for some reason, you never watch TV!).
— TPM reader Lance
Tom ‘Cashbag’ Homan
His simple-yet-brazen approach — old school bag and only 50k *in cash* — was a reminder of days gone by.
— TPM reader Eric
The Trump Family’s Shady Memecoin
Donald Trump is always waving away any idea of conflict of interest regarding his power as president to unethically enrich himself by saying the Trump Organization is in a trust run by his sons. But that trust is literally revocable. And a big chunk of the $800 million his sons raked in this year for the family business conglomerate has 1) come from the sale of memecoins actually called $TRUMP to 2) foreign investors, several of whom told Reuters they were hoping to curry favor with the president, as 3) Trump has openly sought to deregulate crypto at hyperspeed. It’s just a ridiculous out-in-the-open grift.
— TPM Reporter Layla A. Jones
Vote now!
Best Supporting Hatchet Man
Bill Pulte, Housing Henchman
No one had on their bingo card that a primary tool for Trump’s retribution against his biggest foes would be bogus claims of mortgage fraud ginned up by the 37-year-old scion of a major homebuilding family ensconced as the head honcho simultaneously at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, where he’s free to rifle through the personal mortgage records of prominent Democrats. For his relentless creativity and craven devotion to MAGA, Pulte has been rewarded with extraordinary access to President Trump, whom he dazzles with helpful visual aids like poster boards.
— TPM Editor-at-Large David Kurtz
DOJ Weaponization Czar Ed Martin
No Golden Duke nominee has ever worn as many different hats in one year as Ed Martin: interim U.S. attorney, associate deputy attorney general, U.S. pardon attorney, special attorney for mortgage fraud, and director of the DOJ Weaponization Working Group — the last four of which he continues to hold simultaneously. Martin’s lack of any prior experience as a prosecutor has made him the blunt tip of Trump’s retribution spear. Whether he was parading outside Letitia James’ home in a trench coat looking more like a flasher than Columbo or securing pardons for the 2020 Big Lie conspirators or obliterating the wall between the Justice Department and the White House, Martin’s sheer obliviousness combined with an overeagerness to please has made him an exceptional underminer of the rule of law.
— TPM Editor-at-Large David Kurtz
Perplexed Prosecutor Lindsey Halligan
I think any Golden Duke award would be amiss without Lindsay Halligan as the hapless U.S. Attorney who tried to prosecute James Comey and Letitia James without being duly installed in the office, and then had to admit to the judge in open court that she hadn’t actually presented the indictment to the grand jury before bullying the foreman to sign it.
— TPM reader
Trumponomics Enabler Scott Bessent
Wall Street expected Bessent to be a “tariff skeptic” treasury secretary who could reign in Trump’s craziness. Bessent signaled as much by framing Trump’s pre-inauguration tariffs threats as strategic political posturing designed to intimidate U.S. trading partners. Well, the tariffs were real, they upset the market, and Bessent was powerless to stop them, so he’s spent the year contorting himself to justify them. Plus, he accomplished not one pillar of his so-called 3-3-3 ideology — to reach 3% GDP growth, have a deficit that accounts for just 3% of the U.S. budget, and to increase domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day.
—TPM Reporter Layla A. Jones
Vote now!
“I am a river. You are my canyon. …”
RFK Jr.
Biggest Journalism Fail
SignalGate
Admit it. With all the talk of Trump accusing Democrats of sedition and the foundational cracks of the USA being laid bare for all to see, you already forget that the United States government was using Signal to discuss military strikes on Yemen. And that they invited the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic by mistake. And that he saved the logs. And the only guy who saw any repercussions was punished by… becoming the Ambassador to the United Nations. An early indication of how much the bar for competence had fallen from Trump I to Trump II — and that the bar can always get lower.
— TPM reader
Olivia Nuzzi Goes Hiking the Appalachian Trail
Olivia Nuzzi, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Mark Sanford. Do we really have to read the texts again?
— TPM reader
The New York Times vs. Zohran Mamdani
The New York Times was less than subtle about their antipathy towards Zohran Mamdani during the New York City mayoral race. A year after announcing an end to endorsements in local races, the editorial board ran a bizarre anti-endorsement of Mamdani, calling his progressive campaign platform “uniquely unsuited to the city’s challenges” while essentially endorsing disgraced ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo. The paper subsequently published an “investigation” into the candidate’s (unsuccessful) application to Columbia University that showed that Mamdani, who grew up in Uganda and whose family is of Indian origin, checked both Asian and African American on the form. As it turned out, the piece relied on documents hacked by a self-proclaimed white nationalist. We love objective journalism!
—TPM Deputy Editor Allegra Kirkland
Lindsey Halligan Fails to Go Off the Record
Halligan bravely created her own SignalGate-style scandal months after Hegseth, messaging legal reporter Anna Bower about her ongoing prosecution of New York Attorney General Letitia James. This bizarre breach of conduct happened just before her invalid appointment as the interim U.S. attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia got the administration’s half-baked retribution cases against Trump’s enemies (James and former FBI Director James Comey) dismissed.
— TPM Deputy Editor Nicole LaFond
Vote now!
Most Egregious Ring-Kissing
Mike Braun Bends the Knee
Indiana Gov. Mike Braun has repeatedly caved to the Trump administration’s redistricting pressure campaign, despite the lack of widespread Republican support for the effort in his state. Even after Trump went after Braun on Truth Social, and outright threatened him, Braun remained a devoted foot soldier, who pressured and threatened his own to bend the knee. Nothing seems to get between Braun and his fidelity to Trump’s midterms rigging plan that’s already losing steam.
—TPM Reporter Khaya Himmelman
Columbia Accepts Trump’s Terms of Engagement
For worst capitulation to nonsense and exhibiting grotesque pandering from an institution of higher learning, I nominate Columbia University. Institutions like Columbia (and law firms like Skadden Arps) failed us, miserably, and are part of the tragic shift from civic awareness and pride to oligarchism.
— TPM reader Elizabeth
Tim Cook and His Golden Idol
The Apple CEO has become convenient shorthand for elite/corporate weenery in Trump II, and he should always be remembered for not letting his immense power or wealth stop him from trying to win the king’s favor with a golden piece of bullshit.
— TPM Reporter Kate Riga
Bill Cassidy Believing Bullshit
Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, a doctor, for his haplessness, cowardice, and self-debasement that would be comical were the consequences not so grave (voting to install a vaccine denier as head of HHS). After flushing his reputation down the toilet and thoroughly debasing himself, Cassidy is likely to lose his seat next year. Let’s send him home with a Golden Duke for meritorious achievement in dignity-wraithing and reputational self-immolation.
Speaking at a town hall event hosted by MSNBC’s Chris Hayes and
Recode’s Kara Swisher, Cook said Facebook put profits above all
else when it allegedly allowed user data to be taken through
connected apps. [...]
When asked what he would do if he were in Zuckerberg’s position,
Cook replied: “What would I do? I wouldn’t be in this situation.”
“The truth is we could make a ton of money if we monetized our
customer, if our customer was our product,” Cook said. “We’ve
elected not to do that.”
“Privacy to us is a human right. It’s a civil liberty, and
something that is unique to America. This is like freedom of
speech and freedom of the press,” Cook said. “Privacy is right up
there with that for us.”
Perhaps Cook now needs to define “us”.
This was a rather memorable interview. Cook’s “What would I do? I wouldn’t be in this situation” is one of the stone-coldest lines he’s ever zinged at a rival company. (In public, that is.) That was just ice cold. Cook is a consummate diplomat. Most non-founder big company CEOs are. Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, Andy Jassy — none of them are known for throwing shade, let alone sharp elbows, at competitors. Cook has made an exception, multipletimes, when it comes to Facebook/Meta (and to a lesser degree, Google).
So it’s not just that Alan Dye jumped ship from Apple for the chief designer officer role at another company.1 It’s not just that he left for a rival company. It’s that he left Apple for Meta, of all companies. Given what Cook has said about Meta publicly, one can only imagine what he thinks about them privately. Apple executives tend to stay at Apple. The stability of its executive team is unparalleled. But Dye is a senior leader who not only left for a rival, but the one rival that Cook and the rest of Apple’s senior leadership team consider the most antithetical to Apple’s ideals.
It would have been surprising if Dye had jumped ship to Google or Microsoft. It would have been a little more surprising if he’d left for Amazon, if only because Amazon seemingly places no cultural value whatsoever on design, as Apple practices it. But maybe with Amazon it would have been seen as Andy Jassy deciding to get serious about design, and thus, in a way, less surprising after the fact. But leaving Apple for Meta, of all companies, feels shocking. How could someone who would even consider leaving Apple for Meta rise to a level of such prominence at Apple, including as one of the few public faces of the company?
So it’s not just that Alan Dye is a fraud of a UI designer and leader, and that Apple’s senior leadership had a blind spot to the ways Dye’s leadership was steering Apple’s interface design deeply astray. That’s problem enough, as I emphasized in my piece yesterday. It’s also that it’s now clear that Dye’s moral compass was not aligned with Apple’s either. Tim Cook and the rest — or at least most? — of Apple’s senior leadership apparently couldn’t see that, either.
I’d have thrown OpenAI in that list of companies where it would have been surprising, but not shocking, for Dye to leave Apple for. But that simply wasn’t possible given Jony Ive’s relationship with Sam Altman, LoveFrom’s collaboration with OpenAI with the io project, and Ive’s utter disdain for Dye’s talent, leadership, and personality. ↩︎
Straight/dumb quotation marks. Some default Instagram typeface. That period just hanging there, outside the closing quote. This is the post from the man who led Apple’s software design for a decade.
“Just figure out what’s next” for Alan Dye, after his supposedly wonderful accomplishments at Apple, is ... going to work for Meta? Jiminy H. Christ, that takes stones.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, last seen lighting her political career on fire in a run for New York governor, has declared war on House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). Why exactly I’m not entirely sure, other than she simply doesn’t like him. It sparked this deliciously petty but not inapt reply from what appears to have been one of Johnson’s top deputies.
Mr. Johnson declined to comment, as well. But a senior Republican congressional aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of prolonging an intraparty feud, said that after Mr. Johnson had provided Ms. Stefanik with office space and a budget for what the aide described as “a fake job and a fake title,” he would have expected her to be more gracious.
You’ll remember that Stefanik needed a fake job and title because she gave up her position to become President Trump’s UN Ambassador before he had to rescind the offer because he needed to find a drawer in which to stow former congressman-turned National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who more or less had to take the fall for the SignalGate scandal. The same New York Times article I quoted above notes that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) is now also threatening to resign from Congress. The Bulwark has an article up entitled The GOP Women Are Humiliating Mike Johnson: Move Aside, Freedom Caucus. There’s a new House Republican insurgency in town. Get Mike Johnson a beta-blocker, stat!, you might say, or a few beta offensive lineman. (Give it a minute, you’ll get it.) There’s an air over the House Republican caucus that is both petty and baroque, some amalgam of late Soviet nomenklatura and Real Housewives franchise, rippling with disputes that manage to be byzantine and nasty while also somehow very low energy, bounded and almost inaudible despite the high octane visuals. And yes, in case you’re wondering, in the case of the Housewives franchise I’m talking about Johnson and the boys, not the women representatives tossing him around like a sad sack effigy.
The Times article suggests that the female representatives’ beef with Johnson is that he is even more explicitly and consciously patriarchal than most members of the GOP caucus, even frequently saying on the record that women’s brains can’t process information as efficiently as men and that they’re great cooks. Because of this, under his leadership, women in the caucus have been shut out of policy and strategy decisions. That seems highly plausible but also scarcely new. Who Mike Johnson is has been clear from Day One. The issue here is the unleashing of everything Trump’s iron grip has suppressed.
When a group is in danger it pulls together. But at a certain point the Titanic isn’t “in danger”; it’s sinking. And at that moment of crystallization one person looks at another and says, ‘I never liked you, motherfucker!’ and throws a punch. What else is there to do? You look at the person next to you and you either kiss them full on the mouth or punch them in the face. There’s no future and no consequences and no reason not to let it all hang out, get every suppressed urge out there. That is what is happening right now in the House GOP conference, though admittedly with more of the latter than the former — at least as far as we know.
This is the fallout of the November election and Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee, where the Democrat overperformed despite losing to her Republican opponent. GOP lawmakers seem to have accepted that their House majority is gone. So every restraint has disappeared, not against Donald Trump but against each other in the House.
I take tap dance evening classes at the College of San Mateo community college. A neat bonus of this is that I'm now officially a student of that college, which gives me access to their library... including the ability to send text messages to the librarians asking for help with research.
I recently wrote about Coutellerie Nontronnaise on my Niche Museums website, a historic knife manufactory in Nontron, France. They had a certificate on the wall claiming that they had previously held a Guinness World Record for the smallest folding knife, but I had been unable to track down any supporting evidence.
I posed this as a text message challenge to the librarians, and they tracked down the exact page from the 1989 "Le livre guinness des records" describing the record:
Le plus petit
Les établissements Nontronnaise ont réalisé un couteau de 10 mm de long, pour le Festival d’Aubigny, Vendée, qui s’est déroulé du 4 au 5 juillet 1987.
pytest 9.0.0 was released on November 8th 2025. I just got around to looking at the release notes and the biggest new feature is subtests, previously available as the separate pytest-subtests plugin.
The idea behind subtests is to allow a test to programatically create new subtest within itself at runtime.
My above example does the same thing using @pytest.mark.parametrize - but it relies on the list of settings being known at test collection time. This might not be possible for things that need to be introspected after the test has run some initial setup code.
Here's the above test ported to use subtests instead:
subtests is a new default pytest fixture - if you list that as a parameter to your test function you can use it in the body of the test.
Using with subtests.test(...) creates a new subtest. Here I'm doing that in a loop. The keyword arguments passed to subtests.test() are used to identify the subtest in the test report.
That's all it takes! Here's a commit that ported several of my parameterized tests to use subtests instead.
How subtests differ from parametrize
If you use @pytest.mark.parametrize pytest will behave as if every one of your parameter combinations is a separate test function. Running the old pytest tests/test_docs.py tests looked like this:
The last line shows how many subtests passed in addition to how many tests.
It looks to me like subtests run substantially faster than the eqpuivalent parameterized tests. I'm more interested in the fact that subtests can now be programatically generated at runtime based on test setup code.
Last Sunday Kevin Hassett — chair of the National Economic Council, effectively the Trump administration’s chief economist — was interviewed by Nancy Cordes for CBS’s Face the Nation. Most observers expect Hassett to be appointed as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Prediction markets give him a virtual lock:
So CBS was probably hoping that he would say something newsworthy. He didn’t.
But he did, in just a few sentences, make it clear that he is absolutely unqualified — intellectually and morally — to be Fed chair. And the fact that nobody took notice, that his ignorance and mendacity were accepted as par for the course, demonstrated just how far our standards for public service have been degraded.
Here’s the exchange that caught my eye:
NANCY CORDES: What’s your advice to holiday shoppers who don’t want to spend more this year than they did last year, or can’t afford to spend more?
HASSETT: Right. Well, as you know, it depends on what you’re looking at. Like egg prices are down. Gasoline prices drop below $2 a gallon in a lot of places, mortgage rates are down—
NANCY CORDES: --you mean below- gas prices on average are still at $3 a gallon.
HASSETT: Yeah that’s right for a few states they got below two.
Given the timidity of legacy media these days, Trump officials need to be really out there to get fact-checked in real time. But Cordes was right: average national gas prices are around $3 a gallon. And contra Hassett, there are no states in which gas prices are below $2, or even close:
Was Hassett lying, or just unaware of basic facts? Neither is what you want to see in a man who may soon be overseeing monetary policy.
Furthermore, if you’re trying to assess economic policy, it’s hard to come up with worse indicators than the prices of eggs and gasoline. Egg prices fluctuate wildly, not in response to policy changes, but because of the coming and going of bird flu. Gasoline prices mainly reflect the global price of crude oil, a price on which U.S. policy has at most a marginal influence.
So what are we to make of Hassett boasting about prices he should be ignoring if he becomes Fed chair?
Look, I’m not naïve. I understand that when you work for the president — any president — you’re expected to make the best case you honestly can for his policies. But “honestly” is the key word. Sycophancy toward a president who refuses to acknowledge reality, who insists that affordability is a “con job,” crosses that line.
It’s especially important that public officials not tarnish their reputations if they’re going to be moving on to jobs that are supposed to be apolitical — jobs like chairing the Federal Reserve.
The truth is that if Hassett becomes Fed chair, he’s likely to face some very hard choices. How will the Fed deal with the conundrum of weak labor markets combined with stubbornly elevated inflation? How will it respond to soaring electricity prices? If AI is a bubble, what will the Fed do when it bursts? If geopolitical conflict erupts, disrupting supply chains, how will the Fed react?
And the next Fed chair won’t just have to deal with these hard choices. He’ll have to build consensus among his colleagues. For crucial decisions about interest rates aren’t made by the chair, they’re made by committee.
To lead the Fed, then, requires both good judgment and gravitas. For the past two decades we’ve been blessed with chairs who possessed both. Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen were both highly regarded researchers who were able to combine intellectual excellence with strong management skills and a firm grasp on real-world concerns. Jerome Powell came from the world of investment banking — and is a lifelong Republican — but has earned widespread respect for his open-mindedness and willingness to learn from experts.
Hassett has none of these strengths. I won’t bore you with a review of his research career, from Dow 36,000 to his “cubic model” that predicted very few deaths from Covid,except to say that few would describe it with the words “highly regarded.”
My guess is that few economists will be willing to say this openly, but basically everyone understands that Hassett is an ideological DEI hire. That is, his career has depended not on getting things right but on displaying unswerving loyalty to conservative causes — and, latterly, on saying whatever Donald Trump wants to hear.
Some observers are consoling themselves with the thought that since interest rate decisions are made by committee, Hassett can’t do too much harm. But we expect more from Fed chairs than for them to be mostly harmless. We expect and need them to be effective leaders.
That’s not what we’re going to get.
MUSICAL CODA
After my navel-gazing post Tuesday, some readers asked how I come up with these musical codas. Robin proposes some of them, like the John Lee Hooker coda yesterday. Mostly, however, the secret is how I decompress at the end of the day.
I hate working after dinner, which I find depressing. Instead, I usually spend an hour or two listening to and watching musical performances. My tastes, it turns out, are very eclectic, so I consume a wide range of genres. And I’ve mostly disciplined the YouTube algorithm by rigorously refusing to click on anything involving (a) politics or (b) cute animals.
So I have a large mental library of music to draw on. It’s not inexhaustible. Sooner or later I’ll be doing repeats. But not yet.
For today: For whatever reason, Haim isn’t near the top of my rotation. But they’re definitely the real thing, and this is somewhat on point.
Thoughtful commentary on Go, Rust, and Zig by Sinclair Target. I haven't seen a single comparison that covers all three before and I learned a lot from reading this.
One thing that I hadn't noticed before is that none of these three languages implement class-based OOP.
Launched today at WIRED’s The Big Interview event, this manifesto (of which I'm a founding signatory) encourages a positive framework for thinking about building hyper-personalized AI-powered software - while avoiding the attention hijacking anti-patterns that defined so much of the last decade of software design.
This part in particular resonates with me:
For decades, technology has required standardized solutions to complex human problems. In order to scale software, you had to build for the average user, sanding away the edge cases. In many ways, this is why our digital world has come to resemble the sterile, deadening architecture that Alexander spent his career pushing back against.
This is where AI provides a missing puzzle piece. Software can now respond fluidly to the context and particularity of each human—at scale. One-size-fits-all is no longer a technological or economic necessity. Where once our digital environments inevitably shaped us against our will, we can now build technology that adaptively shapes itself in service of our individual and collective aspirations.
The manifesto proposes five principles for building resonant software: Keeping data private and under personal stewardship, building software that's dedicated to the user's interests, ensuring plural and distributed control rather than platform monopolies, making tools adaptable to individual context, and designing for prosocial membership of shared spaces.
By 2025, it was clear to Komoroske and his cohort that Big Tech had strayed far from its early idealistic principles. As Silicon Valley began to align itself more strongly with political interests, the idea emerged within the group to lay out a different course, and a casual suggestion led to a process where some in the group began drafting what became today’s manifesto. They chose the word “resonant” to describe their vision mainly because of its positive connotations. As the document explains, “It’s the experience of encountering something that speaks to our deeper values.”
Kevin Wetzels published a useful first look at Django's background tasks based on the earlier RC, including notes on building a custom database-backed worker implementation.
Template Partials were implemented as a Google Summer of Code project by Farhan Ali Raza. I really like the design of this. Here's an example from the documentation showing the neat inline attribute which lets you both use and define a partial at the same time:
{# Define and render immediately. #}{%partialdefuser-infoinline%}
<divid="user-info-{{ user.username }}">
<h3>{{ user.name }}</h3>
<p>{{ user.bio }}</p>
</div>
{%endpartialdef%}{# Other page content here. #}{# Reuse later elsewhere in the template. #}
<sectionclass="featured-authors">
<h2>Featured Authors</h2>
{%foruserinfeatured%}{%partialuser-info%}{%endfor%}
</section>
You can also render just a named partial from a template directly in Python code like this:
Ivan Khalamendyk, Lviv, “I’m an independent Ukrainian physicist developing a ψ-field model of the universe – a single real wave ψ(x,t) that reproduces quantum matter, forces and gravity.”
Classmates has been part of the internet landscape long enough to feel like a legacy brand, yet it keeps finding ways to stay useful in a world that reinvents itself every five minutes. People who grew up during the first wave of social media often treat it like a digital time capsule, a place where they can revisit pieces of their past without digging through the attic or tracking down old yearbooks. That sense of familiarity still matters, especially as the broader tech world keeps chasing whatever the next trend promises to be. Classmates lean into something simpler. It preserves real history, it offers organization in a space that usually rewards chaos, and it gives users a way to see their own stories in context..
A Platform Built Around Personal History
While most social platforms want to speed up your day, Classmates.com tends to slow it down in a good way. People arrive with a purpose. They want to revisit graduation photos, track down an old club they forgot they joined, or see how many editions of their high school yearbook have survived the decades. The site has essentially built a curated archive out of the moments everyone swears they will keep track of, but rarely do. For a business, that creates a unique position. Nostalgia is powerful, but it only works when it stays grounded and authentic. Classmates.com handles that by keeping its focus on actual artifacts and verifiable information so that users always feel like they are stepping back into something real, not a reconstructed version of their past.
Why Digital Memory Still Matters
As people rely on their devices for almost everything, the idea of preserving personal history can feel like an afterthought. Still, the appetite for grounded digital memory continues to grow. Classmates capitalizes on that by organizing what would otherwise live in scattered boxes, lost email threads, or forgotten phone galleries. It turns those fragments into something coherent. That is valuable for users and equally valuable for brands that need consistent engagement without resorting to gimmicks. The platform stands at a midpoint between personal storytelling and digital archiving, which gives it a staying power many trend driven platforms struggle to maintain.
Expanding Beyond Reconnection And Into Shared Experiences
Social connections often strengthen when people do something together, which is why digital platforms continue to experiment with collaborative features. Classmates.com has explored ways to enhance that sense of participation by creating spaces where users can bounce between memory and activity. After reconnecting you can video chat, engage in playing games online with friends or even meetup in person for a coffee. Shared experiences give older connections new life. For a platform built on reunion energy, leaning into interactive engagement helps it remain relevant to users who want more than a static look back at their past.
A Quiet Strength In An Overcrowded Market
Tech evolves quickly, and consumer expectations evolve with it. Classmates.com does not try to compete with platforms that chase instant novelty. Instead, it focuses on clarity and purpose. That strategy has helped it maintain a steady audience that values durability over hyperactive change. While new apps appear every year promising reinvention, Classmates continues to refine its tools for browsing, organizing, and discovering long term personal history. The brand occupies a rare corner of the digital world where consistency feels like an asset, not a sign of complacency.
How Brands Interpret The Value Of Longevity
Businesses often talk about the importance of retention, but Classmates demonstrate what it looks like in practice. Users may not log in every day, yet when they return, they usually have a reason. That kind of intentional engagement is hard to manufacture. Companies watching that behavior can see how longevity, trust, and clarity can shape brand identity without extravagant branding or constant reinvention. It proves that a steady presence can be just as influential as rapid growth, especially when people want something familiar that still works the way they expect it to.
Where Classmates Positions Itself For The Future
Digital heritage is becoming an industry of its own. As more platforms fade or pivot, the need for stable archives grows. Classmates.com continues to serve users who care about preserving their real stories in a simple, navigable format. The company appears to be building on that foundation rather than chasing entirely new identities. That approach gives it room to expand thoughtfully, whether through enhanced discovery tools, better cross generational access, or features that help users bring their offline memorabilia into their online collections.
Classmates stand out by knowing exactly what it offers and leaning into it with calm confidence. In a space dominated by reinvention, it has carved out a thoughtful niche that treats personal history with care and clarity. It reminds users that some corners of the internet are meant to preserve, not overwhelm.
Thursday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2% (up 2.9% YoY).
• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).
At the office all the morning setting about business, and after dinner to it again, and so till night, and then home looking over my Brampton papers against to-morrow that we are to meet with our counsel on both sides toward an arbitration, upon which I was very late, and so to bed.
Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure!
• Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.1% in October 2025.
• Price declines expanded from six of the 100 largest metros in January to 32 by October, marking the broadest softening of prices since the early 2010s.
...
This year began with a stable growth trajectory, with national price growth posting an annual increase of 3.4% in January. However, that momentum slowed steadily as the year progressed. By October, annual appreciation was a mere 1.1% annual increase—the lowest rate since early 2012.
"The housing market in 2025 demonstrated remarkable resilience despite significant headwinds. Slowing price growth reflects a much-needed rebalancing after years of unsustainable gains. While some markets are experiencing declines, these adjustments will help restore affordability over time and make housing more accessible to a wider group of buyers,” said Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.
This deceleration highlights the impact of higher mortgage rates earlier in the year and persistent affordability challenges. Furthermore, price growth was dampened by a notable increase in inventory. Many markets saw a surge in both existing and newly built homes, slowing rates of in-migration and weakened demand.
The robust price increases of 2022 when top metros — primarily in Florida and the Southeast — saw gains exceeding 30% has now given way to declines. At the start of 2025, only six metros — primarily in Florida — posted year-over-year drops. By October, that number surged to 32, as pricing downturns extended into Texas, California, and various states throughout the Mountain West. emphasis added
This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.
The list is dominated by Florida and Texas. According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.
House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.
IHC’s $240bn market capitalisation makes it by far the biggest constituent of the Abu Dhabi stock exchange, taking up 41.5 per cent of the FTSE ADX General Index — a figure that rises still further when listed subsidiaries such as Alpha Dhabi and 2PointZero are included.
First Abu Dhabi Bank, the country’s largest lender and runner-up at a 10 per cent weighting, is also chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon. Because IHC is ultimately controlled by Sheikh Tahnoon, who is also the UAE’s national security adviser and chairs two of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds, academics classify it as a “state-related entity”.
IHC in turn consists of about 1500 firms, though consolidation is promised. Here is the full FT article.
Migrations are expensive in ... opportunity cost. Write hot spots appear only after a product is gaining real traction, which is a bad time to temporarily stop feature development and back off on user growth.
The above was an argument for pre-emptive, speculative performance tuning. If this product is successful, goes the thinking, then data write performance is going to become a bottleneck. We don’t want to have pause user growth to switch to a new database. Let’s just fix the bottleneck now.
I can empathize with the sentiment, but I think this line of reasoning creates risk & reduces profit.
Review
Going from exploration to expansion always creates the risk of uncovering new bottlenecks. Fixing bottlenecks quickly so extraction can commence is a more realistic goal.
To review, product development proceeds:
From exploration—the risky search for a viable return for a viable investment
To expansion—the elimination of bottlenecks to growth
To extraction—where profitable growth continues
Can’t Jump To Expand
The system design rules change between the three phases. In exploration, anything goes as long as it reduces the cost of experimentation. Use infrastructure that doesn’t scale if it accelerates experimentation.
The transition from exploration to expansion is tricky. The activities & values that resulted in successful exploration become dangerous during expansion. Exploration requires diverse, tangential thinking and experimentation. Expansion requires singular focus on removing the next bottleneck just before it chokes growth. Continuing to experiment distracts from this focus.
The activities & values that make for successful expansion, however, endanger exploration deployed prematurely. Doing a better job preparing for future growth slows experimentation, reducing the chance of success.
Success
The lament above, that during traction is a “bad time to stop feature development” is perfectly understandable. You’ve been experimenting for months or years. You’ve begun to despair of those experiments ever paying off. Suddenly you’re on a hot streak. Everything you try works.
Who wants to stop during a hot streak? (In poker we call this “playing the rush”.)
You can’t create infrastructure that eliminates all bottlenecks. You don’t know the exact circumstances of those bottlenecks. You don’t know what data distributions look like, usage patterns geographically or by time of day or day of week.
Universal infrastructure is under-constrained, does work it needn’t do. That extra work perversely creates risk in the precise situations we need to overcome now that users have shown us what those situations are.
Conclusion
The best we can hope for is:
To repair emerging bottlenecks quickly so we can get on with extraction. If this requires that we pause or throttle growth so we survive, that’s the price of success.
To permanently repair bottlenecks that “rhyme” with past bottlenecks, but this as an Extract project.
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket blasts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base to begin the Starlink 11-25 mission on Dec. 4, 2025. Image: SpaceX
Update Dec. 4, 5:30 p.m. EST (2230 UTC): SpaceX confirms deployment of the Starlink satellites.
SpaceX completed a lunchtime launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base Thursday afternoon.
The Starlink 11-25 mission launched aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4 East, delivering 28 more broadband internet satellites into low Earth orbit. This was the fourth launch this month supporting the Starlink satellite constellation and the 114th such launch this year.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from the California coastline at 12:42 p.m. PST (3:42 p.m. EST / 2042 UTC). The rocket flew on a south-easterly trajectory upon departure from the launch pad.
SpaceX launched the mission using its Falcon 9 booster with the tail number 1097. This was its fourth flight following the launches of the Sentinel-6B, Starlink 11-39 and Starlink 17-8.
Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1097 landed on the drone ship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You,’ marking the 167th touchdown on this vessel and the 544th booster landing for SpaceX to date.
Prior to the launch of the Starlink 11-25 mission, SpaceX launched 2,915 Starlink satellites across 113 missions in 2025. At least three more such missions are planned between Dec. 7 and Dec. 10.
In the midst of these Starlink flights, SpaceX is also slated to launch the NROL-77 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office. This is a classified payload set to launch from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Dec. 9.
Even with the recent weakness in house prices, it is important to note that there will NOT be a surge in foreclosures that could lead to cascading house price declines (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.
With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
But it is still important to track delinquencies and foreclosures.
... This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions based on the Q3 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile released in late November. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.
The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) was up 24% YOY from $765 million in Q3 2024 to $951 million in Q3 2025. This is still historically very low, but increasing.
In case you missed it, Tuesday night, the Democratic congressional candidate, Aftyn Benn, for TN-7 lost, but, importantly, she overperformed in a heavily Republican district, in what appears to be a thirteen point swing from the 2024 Trump margin of victory in the district. As you might imagine, the Trump White House and Republican leaders are soberly reviewing their current policies to understand how to better reach the American electorate.
Mr. Trump announced the pardon for Cuellar and his wife, Imelda, on Truth Social, claiming their prosecution was the result of weaponization by the Justice Department under former President Joe Biden.
“Henry, I don’t know you, but you can sleep well tonight — Your nightmare is finally over!” the president wrote, alleging that Cuellar’s opposition to Biden’s immigration policies was the reason he was indicted.
The president wrote that the Texas Democrat “bravely spoke out against Open Borders and the Biden Border ‘Catastrophe'” and accused Biden of deliberately targeting the congressman and his wife “simply for speaking the TRUTH.”
Keep in mind, the bribery investigation began during the Biden administration.
This is a preemptive pardon, as Cuellar has been indicted, but not convicted. Clearly, Trump is terrified of Democrats retaking the House and is so desperate, he is de facto bribing Cuellar (who is a bad Democrat; there was a good challenger–guess which one the party leadership backed!). Every vote might count, so having a Democrat who might take a dive on things like corruption is a boon for Trump.
It’s worth noting that, in the Federalist Papers, the authors who opposed a presidential pardon power anticipated that a corrupt president would use the pardon power to gain political favor. Seems even enslavers got things right once in a while…
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson told NOTUS that the pardon “surprised” him. He learned about it like the rest of us: online. “He’s definitely a more formidable opponent without the legal cloud hanging over him,” Hudson said of Cuellar.
Whoops! A Republican strategist close to the White House told Jasmine that some inside the Office of Legislative Affairs believed Cuellar was open to switching parties. When the strategist learned that Cuellar had filed to run for reelection as a Democrat, they responded, “Wow.”
It remains to be seen if Cuellar believes he owes Trump anything (a downside of bailing out shitty people is they often don’t return the favor…).
A recent article in The Lancet talks about the checkered career of the late James Watson (1928-2025), who participated in great science (the DNA double helix), wrote about it in popular terms that had some vulgar elements (The Double Helix), and later in life had troubling, unscientific thoughts on race and gender. This made me think of yesterday's post, which touched on the Statement from the American Economic Association concerning Larry Summers.
"There was always going to be a complex reckoning in the obituaries of James D Watson (1928–2025), the American geneticist who co-discovered the structure of DNA. For many years, Watson was one of the most influential figures in modern biology—Director, then President and Chancellor of the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL) in New York, USA, from 1968 to 2007, and the key motive force behind the Human Genome Project. He was also notorious for his attitudes towards women, especially Rosalind Franklin (1920–58), and for his comments on race, which led to a precipitous fall from grace in the past two decades. Watson enjoyed playing the role of provocateur, proudly claiming that his Chicago heritage made him inclined to speak his mind frankly no matter who it upset. The popular image of Watson now is of a great scientist who held controversial views. That, however, lets everyone too easily off the hook."
And here are the two concluding paragraphs:
"But this is also a cautionary tale about how science comports itself. Watson's 2007 interview was hardly a revelation to those who knew him; he had been making bigoted comments for years. In the Esquire interview in that same year he said “some anti-Semitism is justified. Just like some anti-Irish feeling is justified”. And yet there had been a continual turning of a blind eye: he was seen as “outspoken”, “colourful”, and “controversial”. In Watson's heyday, the scientific community tended to indulge such behaviour so long as the perpetrator was sufficiently eminent. Even after the disastrous interview in The Sunday Times, some considered Watson's reputation should shield him from repercussions. When a talk at the Science Museum in London was cancelled in 2007, Richard Dawkins complained about “the hounding, by what can only be described as an illiberal and intolerant ‘thought police’, of one of the most distinguished scientists of our time”. It can sometimes look as though the biggest crime in science is to create an unseemly fuss, especially on a topic deemed “political”. That Elon Musk, who is a fellow of the Royal Society (FRS), gave a Nazi salute, or that Stephen Hawking FRS attended soirées on Jeffrey Epstein's private island, are seen primarily as sources of embarrassment best passed over quickly.
"Perhaps times are changing. When Watson turned up at the event marking the 75th anniversary of Schrödinger's What Is Life? in Dublin, Ireland, and was given an impromptu toast by the organisers, there were dumbfounded glances all around the tables at the thought that we were expected to raise our glasses. Scientists are starting to confront difficult behaviour—but we still have some way to go before acknowledging that it can taint not only the practice of science but also its substance too. "
##########
We have had to think about fine figures with feet of clay at least since Daniel (33-34) interpreted for King Nebuchadnezzar his dream about a statue with "a head of fine gold, its breast and its arms were of silver, its belly and thighs were of copper. Its legs were of iron, and its feet were partly of iron and partly of clay."
Technicians with NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems team use a crane to lift and secure NASA’s Orion spacecraft on top of the SLS (Space Launch System) rocket in High Bay 3 of the Vehicle Assembly Building at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025, for the agency’s Artemis 2 mission. Image: NASA/Kim Shiflett
The four astronauts who are to fly a loop around the Moon next year on the Artemis 2 mission were supposed to board their Orion capsule on Nov. 19 for a launch day rehearsal, but a problem with the spacecraft’s hatch delayed the practice run, NASA told Spaceflight Now.
“We were supposed to be at Kennedy Space Center for the Countdown Demonstration Test, but we have delayed that test into December,” Artemis 2 Commander Reid Wiseman said in a video, shared Nov. 24 on social media. “We spent the bulk of this week sitting down with our flight control experts and our teams here at Johnson [Space Center] just working through all the questions that we have leading up to today.”
Similar countdown practice runs for astronauts and launch controllers took place during the Apollo and Shuttle programs and continue to this day for SpaceX Crew Dragon crews. For those rehearsals, the astronauts boarded their spaceships at the launch pad, but the Artemis 2 plan is different.
For the Countdown Demonstration Test, or CDT, the Artemis 2 astronauts will walkout out of crew quarters at the Neil Armstrong Operations and Checkouts Building in bright-orange pressure suits before traveling to the Vehicle Assembly Building, where their Orion capsule and Space Launch System rocket are being readied for flight in High Bay 3. Once inside the cavernous building they will ride the launch pad elevator to the 274-foot level, cross the crew access arm and strap in aboard the Orion spacecraft. Meanwhile in the adjacent Launch Control Center, Launch Director Charlie Blackwell-Thompson will run her team through the final hours of the countdown, before stopping the clock in its final moments. The astronauts will then practice an emergency evacuation from the capsule.
The crew of NASA’s Artemis 2 mission participates in a suited crew test on Thursday, July 31, 2025, at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. From left, NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Artemis 2 commander; Victor Glover, Artemis 2 pilot; and Christina Koch, mission specialist; along with CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Jeremy Hansen, mission specialist, donned their Orion crew survival system spacesuits for training at NASA’s Kennedy’s Multi-Payload Processing Facility, where they entered their fully powered Orion spacecraft as part of the test. Image: NASA/Rad Sinyak.
Spaceflight Now earlier reported that the countdown rehearsal was delayed by an issue with the Orion capsule. A NASA spokesperson confirmed that in a statement to Spaceflight Now on Wednesday, Dec. 3.
“Prior to the countdown demonstration test, the agency had planned to conduct a day of launch closeout demonstration. This demonstration was paused when a blemish was found on the crew module thermal barrier, preventing hatch closure until it could be addressed,” the statement read. “A repair was completed on Nov. 18 allowing the closeout demo to successfully complete on Nov. 19. To allow lessons learned from the closeout demo to be incorporated into the planning for the countdown demonstration test, the decision was made to proceed into water servicing next and place the countdown demonstration test after this servicing completes.”
It was not clear from the NASA statement how a ‘blemish’ prevented the closure of the hatch and NASA would not say exactly when the countdown rehearsal will take place.
Declining to provide further details, the space agency spokesperson said: “NASA remains on track to launch Artemis 2 no later than April 2026 with opportunities to potentially launch as soon as February.”
“It won’t affect our launch schedule, which is fantastic,” said Wiseman in the Nov. 24 video. “Charlie Blackwell-Thompson and her team at Kennedy are working hard, getting this vehicle ready for us to go.”
A high-level checklist of activities that NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems team needs to complete within the Vehicle Assembly Building at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center prior to rolling the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft out to Launch Complex 39B for final Artemis 2 launch preparations. This graphic was shared by the agency on Nov. 20, 2025. Graphic: NASA
The CDT is one of the big milestones outlined by NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems before the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft are rolled out from the VAB to the pad at Launch Complex 39B.
Once there, final-prelaunch checkouts will take place over a roughly 18-day work period. That work includes the Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR), during which teams will load more than 700,000 gallons of liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen onto the rocket in the same manner that will be done on launch day.
The four crew members, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, Jeremy Hansen and Wiseman, won’t be onboard the Orion capsule for the WDR, but will have some final emergency evacuation training at the pad.
In the week ending November 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 191,000, a decrease of
27,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when
it was 189,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 216,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving
average was 214,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was
revised up by 500 from 223,750 to 224,250. emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 214,750.
My son Maxwell Tabarrok’s paper is Peptide-DB: A Million-Peptide Database to Accelerate Science. Max’s paper combines economics and science policy. Open databases are a public good and so are underprovided. A case in point is that there is no big database for anti-microbial peptides despite the evident utility of such a database for using ML techniques to create new antibiotics. The NIH and other organizations have successfully filled this gap with databases in the past such as PubChem, the HGP, and ProteinDB. A million-peptide database is well within their reach:
The existing data infrastructure for antimicrobial peptides is tiny and scattered: a few thousand sequences with a couple of useful biological assays are scattered across dozens of data providers. No one in science today has the incentives to create this data. Pharma companies can’t make money from it and researchers can’t produce any splashy publications. This means that researchers are duplicating the expensive legwork of collating and cleaning all of this
data and are not getting optimal results, as this is simply not enough information to take full advantage of the ML approach. Scientific funding organizations, including the NIH and the NSF, can fix this problem. The scientific knowledge required to massively scale the data we have on antimicrobial peptides is well established and ready to go. It wouldn’t be too expensive or take too long to get a clean dataset of a million peptides or more, and to have detailed information on their activity against the most important resistant pathogens as well as its toxicity to human cells. This is well within the scale of the successful projects these organizations have funded in the past, including PubChem, the HGP, and ProteinDB.
The CDC did many things. It published learned papers on health crises, after the fact. It managed, very carefully, public perception of itself. But when the shooting started, it leapt into the nearest hole, while others took fire.
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed significant weaknesses in the CDC’s response system. Its traditional strengths in testing, pathogen dentification, and disease investigation and tracking faltered. The legacy of Alexander Langmuir, a pioneering epidemiologist who infused the CDC with epidemiological principles in the 1950s, now seems a distant memory. Tasks as basic as collecting and providing timely COVID-19 data, along with data analysis and epidemiological modeling—both of which should have been the core capability of the CDC—became alarmingly difficult and had to be handled by nongovernmental organizations, such as the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.
A closer examination of the CDC’s workforce composition reveals the root cause: a mere fraction of its employees are epidemiologists and data scientists. The agency has seen an increasing emphasis on academic exploration at the expense of on the-ground action and support for frontline health departments. (Armstrong & Griffin, 2022).
The authors propose to reinvigorate the CDC by integrating it with the more practical and active U.S. Public Health Service. This is a very good suggestion.
For one more check out Bai, Hyman and Silver as a primer on Improving Health Care. The entire issue is excellent.
Vinyl flooring is a popular choice in schools due to its durability, affordability, and ease of cleaning. However, maintaining these floors can create unexpected safety hazards, especially right after cleaning. Wet or freshly polished vinyl can become extremely slippery, posing a risk to students, teachers, and staff. In cases of serious injury, the personal injury lawyers at The Stoddard Firm can help determine who is responsible and identify the necessary legal steps.
Why Vinyl Flooring Is Common in Schools
Many schools opt for vinyl flooring because it can withstand heavy foot traffic and daily wear and tear. It is resistant to stains and scuffs, making it ideal for busy hallways where hundreds of students pass through every day. Custodial teams also find it easy to maintain, which keeps long-term costs low for school districts.
The Hidden Hazard After Cleaning
One of the biggest dangers occurs immediately after vinyl floors have been cleaned. Even a thin layer of water or cleaning solution can reduce traction. Students walking quickly between classes or carrying heavy backpacks may not notice the warning signs before it is too late.
Freshly waxed or polished vinyl floors are hazardous. The shine that attracts visitors can also hide moisture or residue. Slips and falls can happen within seconds if proper drying time is not observed.
Common Causes of Slip Hazards
Several factors can increase the risk of slipping on vinyl flooring. One common cause is the improper use of cleaning techniques. Using too much water or the wrong type of cleaning solution can leave behind a slick film.
Another factor is poor ventilation. Without adequate airflow, moisture takes longer to evaporate. This can make hallways unsafe for more extended periods after cleaning. Lastly, failing to use clear warning signs may cause students and staff to step onto wet floors without realizing it.
The Impact of Slip-and-Fall Accidents
Slip-and-fall accidents in schools can result in more than just embarrassment. They can cause serious injuries such as sprains, fractures, and concussions. Young children and older staff members are particularly vulnerable to these injuries.
Medical costs, missed school days, and emotional distress can follow a single fall. When such incidents occur due to negligence, schools and maintenance staff may face legal consequences. Understanding the risks and taking preventive measures can help avoid these outcomes.
Preventing Slips on Vinyl Floors
Prevention starts with proper cleaning practices. Custodial staff should always follow the manufacturer’s instructions for cleaning products and equipment. Using too much detergent or failing to rinse floors properly can leave slippery residues.
Carefully scheduling cleaning times can also reduce risks. For example, floors can be cleaned after school hours to allow enough drying time overnight. Adequate ventilation, such as open windows or fans, helps speed up the drying process.
Warning signs are another essential tool. Brightly colored “Wet Floor” signs should be placed in visible locations around any recently cleaned area. Staff should also ensure signs remain in place until the floors are completely dry.
The Role of Maintenance and Training
Proper training for custodial staff is crucial in minimizing accidents. Workers should understand which cleaning agents are safe for use on vinyl and how much water to use. They should also learn to spot early warning signs of slippery surfaces.
Regular maintenance also helps reduce risks. Over time, old wax or polish layers can build up, creating uneven textures that affect traction. Stripping and resealing floors correctly ensures a safe and consistent surface.
Schools should also have clear communication between maintenance teams and administrators. Informing teachers about cleaning schedules can help them direct students away from wet areas.
Legal Responsibilities of Schools
Schools have a legal duty to provide a safe environment for students and employees. This includes maintaining hallways and floors in a condition that does not present unreasonable risks. If someone is injured after slipping on a freshly cleaned vinyl floor, the school may be held responsible.
Liability depends on whether the school took reasonable steps to prevent the hazard. For example, if warning signs were missing or cleaning was performed during peak hours, it could indicate negligence. Documentation of cleaning schedules and maintenance protocols can be key evidence in such cases.
How Legal Professionals Can Help
When a slip-and-fall accident occurs, it is crucial to investigate quickly. Witness statements, photographs, and cleaning logs can help determine the cause of the incident. Legal professionals can assess whether the school or its contractors adhered to safety standards.
Victims of these incidents may be entitled to compensation for medical expenses, pain, and suffering. Guidance from experienced attorneys can ensure their rights are protected. The personal injury lawyers at The Stoddard Firm have experience handling such cases and can assist in evaluating liability and pursuing justice.
Final Thoughts
Slips on vinyl flooring after cleaning are a preventable hazard in school hallways. With proper maintenance, training, and safety awareness, schools can significantly reduce the risk of accidents. Paying attention to drying times and warning signs can make all the difference. In severe cases, the personal injury lawyers at The Stoddard Firm can provide the support and expertise needed to navigate the legal process and seek fair compensation.
Divorce is rarely straightforward, and things can get even more complicated when a family business is involved. With thoughtful planning, open communication, and trusted legal guidance from The Law Office of Stephen Vertucci, couples can work toward a fair resolution that protects both the business and their financial futures.
Understanding the Business as a Marital Asset
The first step in dividing a family business is determining whether it qualifies as a marital asset. Generally, if the company was started or significantly expanded during the marriage, its value will be part of what needs to be divided. To move forward fairly, the business should be professionally appraised — usually by an independent valuation expert — to determine its true market worth.
Several factors influence this valuation, including:
Tangible assets: Equipment, property, inventory, and financial accounts.
Intangible assets: Brand reputation, client relationships, intellectual property, and goodwill.
Income streams: Past and projected profits.
Exploring Division Options
Once the business’s value has been determined, the next step is to determine how to divide it without disrupting operations. There are a few common ways to approach this:
1. Buyout by One Spouse
One of the simplest solutions is for one spouse to purchase the other’s share of the business. This approach allows the company to continue under a single owner while ensuring fair compensation for the departing spouse. The buyout can be structured in different ways—through a lump-sum payment, an installment plan, or by trading other marital assets such as real estate or retirement accounts to balance the value.
2. Co-Ownership
Some divorced couples choose to remain business partners. This arrangement can work if both parties maintain a professional demeanor, keep communication open, and clearly define their roles. For example, one spouse might manage daily operations while the other handles finances or marketing.
To avoid future misunderstandings, it’s essential to have a written agreement in place. The document should outline each person’s responsibilities, specify who has decision-making authority, describe how profits will be shared, and outline the process for resolving disagreements or addressing a party’s desire to sell their share.
3. Selling the Business
If neither spouse wants to continue managing the company, selling the business and dividing the proceeds may be the most straightforward solution. While this option brings closure to the joint venture, it also helps avoid future disagreements and ensures both parties walk away with a fair outcome.
That said, selling isn’t always easy, primarily if the business supports family members or employs a loyal team. In such cases, planning the sale carefully or hiring a temporary manager can help maintain stability during the transition.
Legal Tools That Offer Protection
Certain legal arrangements can make dividing a business during a divorce more straightforward while helping to keep operations running smoothly. Common options include:
Prenuptial and Postnuptial Agreements: These agreements can clearly define ownership percentages, buyout terms, and other key conditions in advance. By setting expectations early, they help reduce conflict and uncertainty in the event of a divorce.
Shareholder or Partnership Agreements: Such documents outline how ownership shares can be transferred or sold, preventing a divorce from automatically affecting the company’s structure or stability. They ensure business continuity even as personal circumstances change.
Trusts and Holding Structures: In some situations, placing the business within a trust or holding company can help separate personal and business assets. This setup adds a layer of protection, allowing the company to continue operating with minimal disruption.
Even if no formal agreements were created beforehand, it’s still possible to negotiate similar terms during divorce proceedings. Doing so can help maintain stability and safeguard the business’s future.
The Emotional Side of Business Division
Beyond the financial and legal hurdles, dividing a family business can have a profound emotional toll. For many couples, the company isn’t just a source of income; it’s a reflection of their shared effort, family identity, and years of hard work. It’s only natural for feelings to run high, but keeping a level head is key to making sound decisions.
Working with a counselor, mediator, or neutral business advisor can make it easier to handle difficult discussions and reach practical solutions. By focusing on shared priorities, such as protecting employees, maintaining profitability, and preserving the company’s reputation, both parties can move forward with a sense of fairness and respect.
Final Thoughts
Dividing a family-owned business during a divorce doesn’t have to mean walking away from what you’ve built together. With an accurate valuation, open and fair negotiation, and trusted legal guidance from The Law Office of Stephen Vertucci, couples can reach a resolution that respects both partners’ contributions while maintaining the business’s strength. Whether the final decision leads to a buyout, shared ownership, or the eventual sale of the company, the priority should always be preserving the business’s stability and long-term success.
How did the screen you’re looking at right now get invented? There was a whole pipeline of innovation that started in the early 20th century. First, about a hundred years ago, a few weird European geniuses invented quantum mechanics, which lets us understand semiconductors. Then in the mid 20th century some Americans at Bell Labs invented the semiconductor. Some Japanese and American scientists at various corporate labs learned how to turn those into LEDs, LCDs, and thin-film transistors, which we use to make screens. Meanwhile, American chemists at Corning invented Gorilla Glass, a strong and flexible form of glass. Software engineers, mostly in America, created software that allowed screens to respond to touch in a predictable way. A host of other engineers and scientists — mostly in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and the U.S. — did a bunch of incremental hardware improvements to make those screens brighter, higher-resolution, stronger, more responsive to touch, and so on. And voila — we get the screen you’re reading this post on.
This story is very simplified and condensed, but it illustrates how innovation is a pipeline. We have names for pieces of this pipeline — “basic research”, “applied research”, “invention”, “innovation”, “commercialization”, and so on — but these are approximate, and it’s often hard to tell where one of these ends and another begins. What we do know about this pipeline is:
It tends to go from general ideas (quantum mechanics) to specific products (a modern phone or laptop screen).
The initial ideas rarely if ever can be sold for money, but at some point in the chain you start being able to sell things.
That switch from non-monetizable to monetizable typically means that the early parts of the chain are handled by inventors, universities, government labs, and occasionally a very big corporate lab, while the later parts of the chain are handled mostly by corporate labs and other corporate engineers.
Very rarely does a whole chain of innovation happen within a single country; usually there are multiple handoffs from country to country as the innovation goes from initial ideas to final products.
Here’s what I think is a pretty good diagram from Barry Naughton, which separates the pipeline into three parts:
Over the years, the pipeline has changed a lot. In the old days, a lot of the middle stages — the part where theory gets turned into some basic prototype invention — were done by lone inventors like Thomas Edison or Nikola Tesla. Later, corporate labs took over this function, bringing together a bunch of different scientists and lots of research funding. Recently, corporate labs do less basic research (though they’re still very important in some areas like AI and pharma), and venture-funded startups have moved in to fill some of that gap.
The early parts of the pipeline changed too — university labs scaled up and became better funded, government labs got added, and a few very big corporate labs like Bell Labs even did some basic science of their own. The key innovation here was Big Science — in World War 2, America began using government to fund the early stages of the innovation pipeline with truly massive amounts of money. Everyone knows about the NIH and the NSF, but the really huge player here is the Department of Defense:
Japan, meanwhile, worked on improving the later parts of the chain. I recommend the book We Were Burning for a good intro to the ways that Japanese corporate labs utilized their companies’ engineering-intensive manufacturing divisions to make a continuous stream of small improvements to the final products, as well as finding ways to scale up and reduce costs (kaizen).
And finally, the links between the pieces of the pipeline — the way that technology gets handed off from one institution to another at different stages of the chain — changed as well. America passed the Bayh-Dole Act in 1980, making it a lot easier for university labs to commercialize their work — which thus made it easy and often lucrative for corporations to fund research at universities. (This had its roots in earlier practices by U.S. and German universities.)
Meanwhile, in parallel, the U.S. pioneered a couple of other models. There was the DARPA model, where an independent program manager funded by the government coordinates researchers from across government, companies, and universities in order to produce a specific technology that then gets handed off to both companies and the military. And there are occasional “Manhattan projects”, where the government coordinates a bunch of actors to create a specific technological breakthrough, like building nuclear weapons, landing on the moon, or sequencing the human genome.
So we’ve seen a number of big changes in the innovation pipeline over the years. And different countries have done innovation differently, adding crucial pieces and making key changes as their innovation ecosystems developed The UK pioneered the patent-protected “lone inventor” model (with some forerunners of modern venture capital). Germany created corporate labs and the research university. America invented Big Science, modern VC, and DARPA, while also scaling up modern university-private collaboration and undertaking a few Manhattan-type projects. And Japan added continuous improvement and continuous innovation at the end of the chain.
That story more or less brings us up from the 1700s to the late 2010s. That’s when China enters the innovation story in a big way.
China’s innovation boom
Up through the mid-2010s, China had a pretty typical innovation system — the government would fund basic research, companies would have labs that would create products, and so on. China wasn’t really at the technological frontier yet, though, so this system didn’t really matter that much for Chinese technology — most of the advances came from overseas, via licensing, joint ventures, reverse engineering, or espionage. If you’ve ever heard people talk about how China “steals” all its tech, they’re talking about this era — and “steal” means a whole bunch of different things.
In the 2010s, China’s growth slowed down. There were a lot of reasons for that, but one reason was that they were approaching the limits of how much technology they could transfer from overseas. They had to start inventing things on their own. So they did.
You’ve probably read a lot about Chinese innovation in the last few years. Most things you read will fall into one or more of three basic categories:
“Look how much money China is spending on research”
“Look how many academic papers China is publishing”
“Look which high-tech industries China is dominating”
And since salaries and materials and equipment are all cheaper in China, in PPP terms they’re actually spending a bit more on research than America now. And the gap is set to widen, with or without planned U.S. budget cuts:
As for scientific output, despite inflating their citation counts a lot with citation rings and other tricks, China now leads the world in high-quality STEM papers, especially in materials science, chemistry, engineering, and computer science:
And as for high-tech manufacturing, China is dominating there as well, except in a few narrow sectors where U.S. export controls have managed to keep key pieces of technology out of Chinese hands.
One other piece of evidence that China’s innovation is producing real results comes from the royalties that the world pays to Chinese companies to license their technologies. This amount has skyrocketed since China rolled out its new innovation system in the late 2010s, showing that China is producing lots of technology that the world is willing to pay for:
But although you’ll read a lot in the news about how much China is innovating, you almost never read a good explanation of how they’re doing it. Most people don’t seem to think about how research actually functions; people talk as if it’s just a black box where money goes in and cutting-edge high-tech products come out the other side. But it’s not a black box; the way that a country translates money into products is very important. It affects how productively the money will get used, who spends the money, how much can be deployed, what kinds of products and technologies that the system will create, and who will benefit from those products.
In fact, we know a lot about China’s innovation system — enough to know that in the last decade, they’ve created something new and powerful and interesting. If you want some readings, I strongly recommend:
Anyway, reading all this, it’s clear that like all the industrial nations before it, China has made big changes to the way innovation gets done. I’ll talk about what these changes are, and what they imply for the future of technology (and the economy), but first I think it’s useful to think a bit about the purpose of China’s innovation system.
Tyler and Dan debate whether American infrastructure is actually broken or just differently optimized, why health care spending should reach 35% of GDP, how lawyerly influences shaped East Asian development differently than China, China’s lack of a liberal tradition and why it won’t democratize like South Korea or Taiwan did, its economic dysfunction despite its manufacturing superstars, Chinese pragmatism and bureaucratic incentives, a 10-day itinerary for Yunnan, James C. Scott’s work on Zomia, whether Beijing or Shanghai is the better city, Liu Cixin and why volume one of The Three-Body Problem is the best, why contemporary Chinese music and film have declined under Xi, Chinese marriage markets and what it’s like to be elderly in China, the Dan Wang production function, why Stendhal is his favorite novelist and Rossini’s Comte Ory moves him, what Dan wants to learn next, whether LLMs will make Tyler’s hyper-specific podcast questions obsolete, what flavor of drama their conversation turned out to be, and more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: When will Chinese suburbs be really attractive?
WANG: What are Chinese suburbs? You use this term, Tyler, and I’m not sure what exactly they mean.
COWEN: You have a yard and a dog and a car, right?
WANG: Yes.
COWEN: You control your school district with the other parents. That’s a suburb.
WANG: How about never? I’m not expecting that China will have American-style suburbs anytime soon, in part because of the social engineering projects that are pretty extensive in China. I think there is a sense in which Chinese cities are not especially dense. Indian cities are much, much more dense. I think that Chinese cities, the streets are not necessarily terribly full of people all the time. They just sprawl quite extensively.
They sprawl in ways that I think the edges of the city still look somewhat like the center of the city, which there’s too many high-rises. There’s probably fewer parks. There’s probably fewer restaurants. Almost nobody has a yard and a dog in their home. That’s in part because the Communist Party has organized most people to live in apartment compounds in which it is much easier to control them.
We saw this really extensively in the pandemic, in which people were unable to leave their Shanghai apartment compounds for anything other than getting their noses and mouths swabbed. I write a little bit about how, if you take the rail outside of major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, you hit farmland really, really quickly. That is in part because the Communist Party assesses governors as well as mayors on their degree of food self-sufficiency.
Cities like Shanghai and Beijing have to produce a lot of their own crops, both grains as well as vegetables, as well as fruits, as well as livestock, within a certain radius so that in case there’s ever a major devastating war, they don’t have to rely on strawberries from Mexico or strawberries from Cambodia,or Thailand. There’s a lot of farmland allocated outside of major cities. I think that will prevent suburban sprawl. You can’t control people if they all have a yard as well as a dog. I think the Communist Party will not allow it.
COWEN: Whether the variable of engineers matters, I went and I looked at the history of other East Asian economies, which have done very well in manufacturing, built out generally excellent infrastructure. None of these problems with the Second Avenue line in New York. Taiwan, like the presidents, at least if we believe GPT-5, three of them were lawyers and none of them were engineers. South Korea, you have actually some economists, a lot of bureaucrats.
WANG: Wow. Imagine that. Economists in charge, Tyler.
COWEN: I wouldn’t think it could work. A few lawyers, one engineer. Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, he’s a lawyer. He thinks in a very lawyerly manner. Singapore has arguably done the best of all those countries. Much richer than China, inspired China. Why should I think engineers rather than just East Asia, and a bunch of other accompanying facts about these places are what matter?
WANG: Japan, a lot of lawyers in the top leadership. What exactly was the leadership of Hong Kong? A bunch of British civil servants.
COWEN: Some of whom are probably lawyers or legal-type minds, right? Not in general engineers.
WANG: PPE grads. I think that we can understand the engineering variable mostly because of how much more China has done relative to Japan and South Korea and Taiwan.
COWEN: It’s much, much poorer. Per capita manufacturing output is gone much better in these other countries.
And:
WANG: Tyler, what does it say about us that you and I have generally a lot of similar interests in terms of, let’s call it books, music, all sorts of things, but when it comes to particular categories of things, we oppose each other diametrically. I much prefer Anna Karenina to War and Peace. I prefer Buddenbrooks to Magic Mountain. Here again, you oppose me. What’s the deal?
COWEN: I don’t think the differences are that big. For instance, if we ask ourselves, what’s the relative ranking of Chengdu plus Chongqing compared to the rest of the world? We’re 98.5% in agreement compared to almost anyone else. When you get to the micro level, the so-called narcissism of petty differences, obviously, you’re born in China. I grew up in New Jersey. It’s going to shape our perspectives.
Anything in China, you have been there in a much more full-time way, and you speak and read Chinese, and none of that applies to me. I’m popping in and out as a tourist. Then, I think the differences make much more sense. It’s possible I would prefer to live in Shanghai for essentially the reasons you mentioned. If I’m somewhere for a week, I’m definitely going to pick Beijing. I’ll go around to the galleries. The things that are terrible about the city just don’t bother me that much, because I know I’ll be gone.
WANG: 98.5% agreement. I’ll take that, Tyler. It’s you and me against the rest of the world, but then we’ll save our best disagreements for each other.
COWEN: Let’s see if you can pass an intellectual Turing test. Why is it that I think Yunnan is the single best place in the world to visit? Just flat out the best if you had to pick one region. Not why you think it is, but why I think it is.
Strongly recommended, Dan and I had so much fun we kept going for about an hour and forty minutes. And of course you should buy and read Dan’s bestselling book Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.
It sounds like Dye chose to jump ship, and wasn’t squeezed out (as
it seems with former AI chief John Giannandrea earlier this
week). Gurman/Bloomberg are spinning this like a coup for Meta
(headline: “Apple Design Executive Alan Dye Poached by Meta in
Major Coup”), but I think this is the best personnel news at Apple
in decades. Dye’s decade-long stint running Apple’s software
design team has been, on the whole, terrible — and rather than
getting better, the problems have been getting worse.
Dye’s replacement at Apple is longtime Apple designer Stephen Lemay. I’ve never met Lemay (or at least can’t recall meeting him), and prior to today never heard much about him. But that’s typical for Apple employees. Part of the job working for Apple is remaining under the radar and out of the public eye. What I’ve learned today is that Lemay, very much unlike Dye, is a career interface/interaction designer. Sources I’ve spoken to who’ve worked with Lemay at Apple speak highly of him, particularly his attention to detail and craftsmanship. Those things have been sorely lacking in the Dye era. Not everyone loves everything Lemay has worked on, but nobody bats 1.000 and designers love to critique each other’s work. I’ve chatted with people with criticisms of specific things Lemay has worked on or led at Apple (e.g. aspects of iPadOS multitasking that struck many of us as deliberately limiting, rather than empowering), but everyone I’ve spoken to is happy — if not downright giddy — at the news that Lemay is replacing Dye. Lemay is well-liked personally and deeply respected talent-wise. Said one source, in a position to know the choices, “I don’t think there was a better choice than Lemay.”
The sentiment within the ranks at Apple is that today’s news is almost too good to be true. People had given up hope that Dye would ever get squeezed out, and no one expected that he’d just up and leave on his own. (If you care about design, there’s nowhere to go but down after leaving Apple. What people overlooked is the obvious: Alan Dye doesn’t actually care about design.)
What I struggled with in the wake of today’s news is how to square the following contradiction:
Dye apparently left for Meta on his own; he wasn’t squeezed out.
Apple replacing Dye with Lemay seemingly signals a significant shift in direction, replacing a guy whose approach was almost entirely superficial/visual with a guy who’s spent his entire career sweating actual interaction details.
If Apple’s senior leadership would have been happy to have Dye remain as leader of Apple’s software design teams, why didn’t they replace him with a Dye acolyte? Conversely, if the decision makers at Apple saw the need for a directional change, why wasn’t Dye pushed out?2
The answer, I think, is that the decision to elevate Lemay wasn’t about direction, but loyalty. Why risk putting in a Dye-aligned replacement when that person might immediately get poached too? We know, from this year’s AI recruitment battles, that Zuckerberg is willing to throw almost unfathomable sums of money to poach talent he wants to hire from competitors. Gurman reported that Billy Sorrentino, a Dye deputy who has served as a senior director of design at Apple since 2016, is leaving for Meta with Dye.3 I don’t have any other names, but word on the street is that other members of Dye’s inner circle are leaving Apple for Meta with him. But those who remain — or who might remain, if they’d have been offered the promotion to replace Dye — simply can’t be trusted from the perspective of senior leadership, who were apparently blindsided by Dye’s departure for Meta. They wouldn’t have given Dye a prime spot in the WWDC keynote if they thought he might be leaving within months.
So the change in direction we may see — that many of us desperately hope to see — under Lemay’s leadership might be happenstance. More a factor of Lemay being politically safe, as someone predating Dye and outside Dye’s inner circle at Apple, than from Tim Cook or anyone else in senior leadership seeing a need for a directional change in UI design. But happenstance or not, it could be the best thing to happen to Apple’s HI design in the entire stretch since Steve Jobs’s passing and Scott Forstall’s ouster.
Putting Alan Dye in charge of user interface design was the one big mistake Jony Ive made as Apple’s Chief Design Officer.4 Dye had no background in user interface design — he came from a brand and print advertising background. Before joining Apple, he was design director for the fashion brand Kate Spade, and before that worked on branding for the ad agency Ogilvy. His promotion to lead Apple’s software interface design team under Ive happened in 2015, when Apple was launching Apple Watch, their closest foray into the world of fashion. It might have made some sense to bring someone from the fashion/brand world to lead software design for Apple Watch, but it sure didn’t seem to make sense for the rest of Apple’s platforms. And the decade of Dye’s HI leadership has proven it.
The most galling moment in Dye’s entire tenure was the opening of this year’s iPhone event keynote in September, which began with a title card showing the oft-cited Jobs quote “Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works.” The whole problem with the Dye era of HI design at Apple is that it has so largely — not entirely, but largely — been driven purely by how things look. There are a lot of things in Apple’s software — like app icons — that don’t even look good any more. But it’s the “how it works” part that has gone so horribly off the rails. Alan Dye seems like exactly the sort of person Jobs was describing in the first part of that quote: “People think it’s this veneer — that the designers are handed this box and told, ‘Make it look good!’”
I am not a Liquid Glass hater. I actually think, on the whole, iOS 26 is a better and more usable UI than iOS 18. But MacOS 26 Tahoe is a mess, visually, and I’m not sure there’s a single thing about its UI that is better than MacOS 15 Sequoia. There are new software features in Tahoe that are excellent and serve as legitimate enticements to upgrade. But I’m talking about the user interface — the work from Alan Dye’s HI team, not Craig Federighi’s teams. I think the fact that Liquid Glass is worse on MacOS than it is on iOS is not just a factor of iOS being Apple’s most popular, most profitable, most important platform — and thus garnering more of Apple’s internal attention. I think it’s also about the fact that the Mac interface, with multiple windows, bigger displays, and more complexity, demands more nuanced, more expert, interaction design skills. Things like depth, layering, and unambiguous indications of input focus are important aspects of any platform. But they’re more important on the platform which, by design, shoulders more complexity. Back in 2010, predicting a bright future for the Mac at a time when many pundits were thinking Apple would soon put the entire platform out to pasture, I wrote, “It’s the heaviness of the Mac that allows iOS to remain light.” That remains as true today as it was 15 years ago. But Liquid Glass, especially as expressed on MacOS, is a lightweight poorly considered design system as a whole, and its conceptual thinness is not sufficient to properly allow the Mac to carry the weight it needs to bear.
Perhaps more tellingly, there should have been no need for the “clear/tinted” Liquid Glass preference setting that Apple added in the 26.1 OS releases. Alan Dye wasn’t fired, by all accounts, but that preference setting was as good a sign as any that he should have been. And it’s very much a sign that inside Apple, there’s a strong enough contingent of people who prioritize how things work — like, you know, whether you can read text against the background of an alert — to get a setting like this shipped, outside the Accessibility section of Settings.
It remains worrisome that Apple needed to luck into Dye leaving the company. But fortune favors the prepared, and Apple remains prepared by having an inordinate number of longtime talented HI designers at the company. The oddest thing about Alan Dye’s stint leading software design is that there are, effectively, zero design critics who’ve been on his side. The debate regarding Apple’s software design over the last decade isn’t between those on Dye’s side and those against. It’s only a matter of debating how bad it’s been, and how far it’s fallen from its previous remarkable heights. It’s rather extraordinary in today’s hyper-partisan world that there’s nearly universal agreement amongst actual practitioners of user-interface design that Alan Dye is a fraud who led the company deeply astray. It was a big problem inside the company too. I’m aware of dozens of designers who’ve left Apple, out of frustration over the company’s direction, to work at places like LoveFrom, OpenAI, and their secretive joint venture io. I’m not sure there are any interaction designers at io who aren’t ex-Apple, and if there are, it’s only a handful. From the stories I’m aware of, the theme is identical: these are designers driven to do great work, and under Alan Dye, “doing great work” was no longer the guiding principle at Apple. If reaching the most users is your goal, go work on design at Google, or Microsoft, or Meta. (Design, of course, isn’t even a thing at Amazon.) Designers choose to work at Apple to do the best work in the industry. That has stopped being true under Alan Dye. The most talented designers I know are the harshest critics of Dye’s body of work, and the direction in which it’s been heading.
Back in June, after WWDC, I quoted from Alan Dye’s introduction of Liquid Glass during the keynote, and then quoted from Steve Jobs’s introduction of Aqua when he unveiled the Mac OS X Public Beta in January 2000. I wrote:
Re-watching Jobs’s introduction of Aqua for the umpteenth time, I
still find it enthralling. I found Alan Dye’s introduction of
Liquid Glass to be soporific, if not downright horseshitty.
One of the bits from Jobs’s Aqua introduction I quoted was this:
This is what the top of windows look like. These three buttons
look like a traffic signal, don’t they? Red means close the
window. Yellow means minimize the window. And green means maximize
the window. Pretty simple. And tremendous fit and finish in this
operating system. When you roll over these things, you get those.
You see them? And when you are no longer the key window, they go
transparent. So a lot of fit and finish in this.
After I published that post, I got a note from a designer friend who left Apple, in frustration, a few years ago. After watching Jobs’s Aqua introduction for the first time in years, he told me, “I’m really struck by Steve directly speaking to ‘radio buttons’ and ‘the key window’.” He had the feeling that Dye and his team looked down on interface designers who used terms like Jobs himself once used — in a public keynote, no less. That to Dye’s circle, such terms felt too much like “programmer talk”. But the history of Apple (and NeXT) user interface design is the opposite. Designers and programmers used to — and still should — speak the exact same language about such concepts. Steve Jobs certainly did, and something feels profoundly broken about that disconnect under Alan Dye’s leadership. It’s like the head of cinematography for a movie telling the camera team to stop talking about nerdy shit like “f-stops”. The head of cinematography shouldn’t just abide talking about f-stops and focal lengths, but love it. Said my friend to me, regarding his interactions with Dye and his team at Apple, “I swear I had conversations in which I mentioned ‘key window’ and no one knew what I meant.”
That won’t be a problem with Stephen Lemay. Understanding of fundamental principles will no longer be lacking. Lemay has been at Apple spanning the gamut between the Greg Christie/Bas Ording glory days and the current era. At the very least, Lemay running HI should stop the bleeding — both in terms of work quality and talent retention. I sincerely believe things might measurably improve, but I’m more sure that things will stop getting worse. That alone will be a win for everyone — even though the change was seemingly driven by Mark Zuckerberg’s desire to poach Dye, not Tim Cook and Apple’s senior leadership realizing they should have shitcanned him long ago.
Alan Dye is not untalented. But his talents at Apple were in politics. His political skill was so profound that it was his decision to leave, despite the fact that his tenure is considered a disaster by actual designers inside and outside the company. He obviously figured out how to please Apple’s senior leadership. His departure today landed as a total surprise because his stature within the company seemed so secure. And so I think he might do very well at Meta. Not because he can bring world-class interaction design expertise — because he obviously can’t — but because the path to success at Meta has never been driven by design. It’s about getting done what Zuck wants done. Dye might excel at that. Dye was an anchor holding Apple back, but might elevate design at Meta.5
Titles are just titles, and title inflation is a real problem at all big companies. But I always thought C-level executives by definition report directly to the CEO. That that was the whole point of a “chief whatever officer” title versus “senior vice president of whatever”. But according to Mark Gurman’s exclusive report at Bloomberg breaking this whole story (emphasis added):
With the Dye hire, Meta is creating a new design studio and
putting him in charge of design for hardware, software and AI
integration for its interfaces. He will be reporting to Chief
Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth, who oversees Reality Labs.
That group is tasked with developing wearable devices, such as
smart glasses and virtual reality headsets. Dye’s major focus will
be revamping Meta’s consumer devices with artificial intelligence
features.
If true, Dye doesn’t even report directly to Mark Zuckerberg. Oddly enough, after the retirement of COO Jeff Williams this year, Apple claimed the company’s design teams transitioned to reporting directly to CEO Tim Cook. ↩︎
And man oh man am I curious who was involved with this decision, who had Tim Cook’s ear, and just how quickly they were forced to make it. Part of what made Stephen Lemay a popular choice within Apple’s ranks is that Lemay, by all accounts I’ve heard, isn’t a political operator and never angled for a promotion to a level of this prominence. His focus has always singularly been on the work. ↩︎︎
Sorrentino was featured in a two-minute-plus segment in this year’s WWDC keynote, starting at the 38:25 mark, introducing the new iOS Visual Intelligence features. His star was rising at Apple. And Dye himself, of course, was given the spotlight to introduce and effectively take credit for Liquid Glass itself. At least until recently, no one at Apple saw this coming. ↩︎︎
I have good reason to believe that Ive, in private, would be the first person to admit that. A fan of Liquid Glass Jony Ive is not. I believe he sees Dye as a graphic designer, not a user interface designer — and not a good graphic designer at that. I don’t think Alan Dye could get a job as a barista at LoveFrom. ↩︎︎
It’s worth recalling that Zuckerberg sorta kinda tried this poach-design-talent-from-Apple thing before. Mike Matas, the wunderkind designer who became a sensation with Delicious Library in 2005, soon thereafter moved on to work at Apple, where he designed such things as the “slide to unlock” interface on the original iPhone. Matas was a key designer on that glorious first version of the iPhone’s OS. He then left Apple and formed Push Pop Press, and wound up at Facebook in 2011 after Facebook acquired Push Pop — before it had even shipped its core product. (I saw a still-in-development version of Push Pop’s publishing system in 2011, before Facebook bought them and shut down the product, and it remains to this day one of the most impressive, exciting, “this is the future” demos I’ve ever seen. It’s not merely a shame but a goddamn tragedy that it never even shipped.) Zuckerberg wound up assembling around Matas an entire little superteam of “Delicious” era designers and design-focused developers. That team wound up shipping Facebook Paper in 2014 — an iOS-exclusive alternative client for Facebook that espoused the same principles of elegance, exquisite attention to detail, and, especially, direct manipulation of content in lieu of user interface chrome, that infused Push Pop Press’s publishing system. Facebook Paper was so good it almost — almost — made me sign up for a Facebook account just so I could use it. But Facebook Paper went nowhere, fast. Zuckerberg lost his boner for “design”, Facebook Paper was pulled from the App Store in 2016, and the team behind Paper disbanded.
Matas today works at LoveFrom, and remains, to my mind, one of the most singularly talented and interesting people in the field of interaction design. In some closer-to-ideal alternate universe, Matas would be running HI design at Apple today. ↩︎︎
Washington is stepping into the 2025-26 season with a full-on youth movement, but not the “tear it down and hope” kind. The Wizards are mixing top-end young talent with veteran structure, and the question isn’t just whether they can be exciting — it’s whether they can finally be steady. After years near the bottom, the franchise is asking its next wave to turn flashes into habits, and to show measurable, repeatable growth across the season.
The Youth-Led Pivot Entering 2025-26
Washington’s front office is treating 2025-26 as a true pivot year in the rebuild: still focused on development, but finally expecting consistency to show up on the floor. They are coming off an 18-64 record in 2024-25, 15th in the East, missing the playoffs again. That was a modest improvement from 15-67 the season before, but the bigger story was how far they still sat from respectability. The team was outscored by 12.4 points per game, and rookies logged 35% of the total minutes, a clear indicator that the organization had already handed out the keys to youth. The message now is simple: the same opportunities must produce steadier outcomes.
The Baseline Numbers the Wizards Must Beat
Those 2024-25 numbers aren’t just history; they’re the measuring stick. Eighteen wins and a double-digit negative margin aren’t the kind of results you talk around — they define the urgency. The Wizards don’t need to jump straight into contention for this season to be a win, but they do need to stop living in extremes. Competitive losses sustained defensive effort, fewer late-game collapses, and visible growth from October through April are all part of the expectation. If they repeat an 18-64-level performance with the same mistakes, the rebuild risks stalling. This year is about making the floor higher, not only raising the ceiling.
A Starting Lineup Designed for Growth
The expected starters underline how intentional the plan is: CJ McCollum at point guard, Bub Carrington at shooting guard, Cam Whitmore at small forward, Khris Middleton at power forward, and Alex Sarr at center. That mix is deliberate — a veteran guard to organize the offense, another veteran wing to stabilize possessions, and young athletes surrounding them with real responsibilities. The aim isn’t survival basketball; it’s a nightly structure that allows young players to learn by repeating the same reads and roles. Consistency never arrives if a team is reinventing itself every two weeks, so Washington is leaning into stability by design.
Depth Chart Signals a Long Youth Runway
Behind the starters, the second unit remains youth-heavy: Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Corey Kispert, Justin Champagnie, and Marvin Bagley III, with additional depth from Kyshawn George, Malaki Branham, Will Riley, Tristan Vukcevic, Anthony Gill, and Sharife Cooper. That’s a lot of under-24 talent playing in real rotation slots, not parked on the bench. The key here is volume of meaningful minutes. Washington isn’t dabbling in development; they’re living in it. The lineup depth suggests the organization wants to test combinations but eventually narrow them into dependable groupings that can defend, rebound, and execute without wild swings in effort.
A Young Core with Big Talk and Real Tools
Inside the locker room, belief is loud. Bub Carrington has gone on record saying Washington has a top-five young core — “Yes, and it’s not even close.” Whether that proves true depends on growth meeting reality. The core is built around defense, size, and modern skill sets: Bilal Coulibaly already draws praise for elite defensive impact, Alex Sarr and Tristan Vukcevic are 7-foot centers with three-level scoring tools, and Carrington plus Kyshawn George are viewed as tough two-way competitors. The front office also holds four first-round picks in the 2025 and 2026 drafts, so talent accumulation isn’t slowing. Now the focus turns from stockpiling to polishing.
The Hard Truth: No Star Yet
For all the youthful promise, the Wizards still face a blunt reality: their extremely young core hasn’t yet produced a star. That matters because teams without a clear top option often ride waves — hot one night, invisible the next. The rebuild’s next stage requires at least one player to cross over from “interesting” to “engine,” someone defenses have to game-plan for every night. Washington doesn’t need that transformation to happen overnight, but it does need to start showing up this season. Until that level of hierarchy forms on its own, consistency will remain fragile, because responsibility keeps shifting with matchups instead of being anchored by a dependable centerpiece.
Offseason Moves That Fit the Timeline
Washington’s offseason was busy and clearly aligned with youth-first thinking. They re-signed Anthony Gill, and Khris Middleton returned after exercising his player option. They added Marvin Bagley III in free agency. They also brought in Malaki Branham, CJ McCollum, and Cam Whitmore via trades. On draft night, they landed Tre Johnson at No. 6 overall, Will Riley at No. 21 overall (acquired through a trade), and Jamir Watkins at No. 43 overall. Departures included Saddiq Bey, Malcolm Brogdon, Richaun Holmes leaving for overseas, Jordan Poole, Marcus Smart being waived, and Blake Wesley being waived. The direction is clear: real minutes for young players, guided by seasoned pros.
Alex Sarr as the Two-Way Anchor
Alex Sarr is the most obvious internal swing factor. The 2024 No. 2 overall pick averaged 13.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game as a rookie. After the All-Star break, he climbed to almost 16 points per game, hinting that his offense is catching up to his defensive value. Washington sees him as foundational: a modern big who protects the rim, moves well, and can grow into heavier usage without losing efficiency. If Sarr can sustain that post-break level across a full season, the Wizards gain a nightly defensive base — and that alone can cut into a 12.4-point negative margin.
Wings That Must Turn Talent Into Habits
The wing group is where Washington can either stabilize or wobble. Coulibaly’s defense already travels every night; the next step is offensive steadiness, so he doesn’t disappear for stretches. Carrington’s confidence sets up the emotional tone, but he needs to back it with disciplined playmaking and consistent shot selection. Cam Whitmore is expected to jump near the top of the scoring ladder immediately, which makes his efficiency and defensive focus crucial. This is the classic young-wing challenge: turning athletic bursts into routine production. If the wings defend, rebound, and make simple winning plays regularly, the Wizards stop being matchup-dependent.
Tre Johnson and the Scoring Ceiling
Tre Johnson enters as the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 draft, and Washington views him as a player they can build around. The expectation is that his shooting and creation don’t come slowly — the team believes he can impact the offense early. That’s why NBA projections lean on Johnson as a spacing and scoring stabilizer: the Wizards want fewer nights where offense looks random and more possessions where structure produces clean looks. If he translates quickly, he not only raises the ceiling but makes the floor steadier because defenses must respect him. His development arc is one of the season’s biggest markers.
Veteran Mentorship as Structure, Not Decoration
CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton are not on this roster as symbolic leaders. McCollum is 34, a former National Basketball Players Association president for four years, and he’s expected to start while guiding a team with 12 players under age 24. Middleton, back on a player option year, gives Washington another reliable professional who has lived through playoff stakes and understands nightly preparation. Their role is to teach consistency through habits: pace control, late-game reads, defensive communication, and emotional steadiness when runs happen. Coach Brian Keefe, entering year three, must balance their stabilizing minutes without blocking young reps.
What Meaningful Consistency Looks Like by April 2026
Washington does not need to leap from 18 wins to contention for this to feel like a successful season. But the progress has to be tangible. That means shrinking the 12.4-point negative margin, cutting down blowout frequency, and seeing young players perform at similar levels against different types of opponents. It means rotations stabilizing, not constantly shifting. It means Sarr holding post-All-Star production all year, Johnson forcing defenses to adjust, and the wings delivering dependable two-way effort. If those things happen, the Wizards become competitive night to night — the first real sign that this patient rebuild is turning potential into consistency.
Winter in New York brings conditions that can make every day walking more dangerous. Snow can build up on sidewalks and parking areas and create hidden layers of ice. Cold nights can freeze small puddles and turn them into slick surfaces by morning. Property owners may not clear paths fast enough which increases the chance of falling. Many surfaces become uneven during winter storms which makes movement less steady. These problems highlight why winter slip and fall safety guidance matters for people getting around during the colder months.
Snow Covered Walking Areas
Snow is one of the most common winter hazards in New York. When snow piles up it can hide holes and cracks that make walking risky. Packed snow becomes slippery when it settles and many people lose their balance on these surfaces. Property owners must keep walkways clear because heavy foot traffic can make snow smooth and slick. Even small piles of snow near doorways or steps can lead to accidents. As more people rush indoors snow carried inside can melt on floors and create new hazards.
Black Ice On Sidewalks And Entryways
Black ice forms when thin layers of water freeze into a clear sheet. It blends with the ground which makes it hard to notice. Winters in New York create perfect conditions for this type of ice when temperatures drop at night. Many falls occur in the early morning when this ice has not yet melted. Entryways also become problem areas because warm air from inside buildings causes moisture that later freezes near the doors. Without quick cleanup this ice can lead to painful injuries.
Frozen Parking Lots And Outdoor Steps
Parking lots become slippery when snow and moisture freeze after plowing. Cars push snow into new patterns that freeze again and create uneven ground. Drivers stepping out of their vehicles often land on slick spots and lose their balance. Outdoor steps can be even more dangerous because melted snow flows down each step and freezes again. When these surfaces are not salted or cleared promptly the risk of falling grows. Simple actions like wearing shoes with strong traction can help reduce these dangers.
Melting Snow Near Buildings
Melting snow creates puddles that freeze again as temperatures drop. These small patches of ice appear near curbs and building entrances where snow tends to collect. People often overlook these areas because the ice forms in thin layers. When the surface refreezes it becomes as slick as glass. Building managers must pay attention to these spots to prevent accidents. Sand or salt helps keep the ground stable until the weather warms up.
Poor Lighting During Winter Months
Winter days are shorter which means many people walk in dim light during morning and evening hours. Poor lighting makes it harder to see ice or frozen patches on the ground. Shadows from buildings and vehicles can hide dangerous areas. Walkways that are not well lit create more risk because people cannot see changes in the surface. Bright and steady lighting helps people move safely in winter conditions. Even small improvements can make outdoor areas safer for daily use.
Winter hazards in New York can cause serious slip and fall injuries when walkways are not taken care of. Snow ice and melting slush all create unstable ground that affects people in busy areas throughout the city. Clearing surfaces early and keeping them maintained can reduce many of these risks. Taking care during winter helps protect people in New York as they navigate the city during the colder months.
A rideshare accident can create confusion for anyone involved. Many people struggle to understand who may be responsible after a crash caused by a rideshare driver. The driver might be at fault but other parties could also share responsibility. Each situation depends on what happened in the moments before the impact. Victims often turn to Ellis Injury Law for guidance during this stressful time. These cases involve many moving parts and need careful review so the right parties are held accountable.
The Role of the Rideshare Driver
The rideshare driver is usually the first person examined when an accident happens. The driver may be liable if distraction poor judgment or unsafe driving caused the crash. A driver who ignores traffic rules or fails to pay attention to the road may be held responsible. Many accidents start with simple errors that quickly escalate into serious harm. When a driver acts with disregard for safety their actions can form the basis of a claim. Evidence from the scene helps show whether the driver acted in a careless way.
Company Responsibility for Driver Actions
There are times when the rideshare company may share liability for a crash. If the driver was logged into the app and available for passengers the company may have an interest in the accident. The company could be at fault if it didn’t check the driver’s background or prioritize passenger safety. Situations where a company overlooks past issues may open the door to wider responsibility. Company policies play a major role in understanding liability. This is why the accident must be reviewed from every angle.
The Impact of Third Party Drivers
Some crashes occur because another driver caused the event. Another driver may be at fault if they drove carelessly and caused the crash with the rideshare car. This may include speeding sudden stops or ignoring traffic control. When another driver sets off the chain of events they may be held accountable for damages. Every driver on the road must act with care. If a third party fails in that duty they can become a key part of the claim.
Fault Linked to Unsafe Vehicle Conditions
Mechanical problems can also play a role in a rideshare accident. A car that has worn parts or poor maintenance may not operate safely. If a failure occurs at the wrong time the driver may lose control and cause a crash. Responsibility may shift to a repair shop if the shop completed poor work or overlooked an issue. Liability may also extend to a manufacturer if a defect played a part in the collision. Vehicle condition is an important factor that must always be reviewed.
How Evidence Shapes Liability
Evidence often guides the process of identifying responsible parties. Records from the rideshare app can show whether the driver was active and what actions they took before the crash. Witness accounts help explain how events unfolded. Photos of damage the scene or road conditions add important details. When all evidence is examined together a clearer picture of liability forms. This helps create a stronger case for the injured person and ensures fairness in the process.
Liability in a rideshare accident can involve more than one party. The rideshare driver, the company, another driver, a repair shop, or even the maker of the car may share blame, depending on what went wrong. Understanding how these pieces fit together is important for anyone seeking fair compensation. Careful review and strong evidence help build a clear path forward. With the right support injured people can move toward recovery and hold the responsible parties accountable.