4 ways the war in Iran has weakened the United States in the great power game

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China and Russia may be the real beneficiaries of Washington’s latest Middle East conflict.

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

Napoleon Bonaparte’s maxim may well have been in the minds of policymakers in Moscow and Beijing these past weeks, as the U.S. war in Iran dragged on. And now that a 14-day ceasefire between Tehran and Washington is in effect – with both sides claiming “victory” – Russian and Chinese leaders still have an opportunity to profit from what many see as America’s latest folly in the Middle East.

Throughout the weekslong conflict, China and Russia struck a delicate balance. Both declined to give Iran – seen to a varying degree as an ally of both nations – their full-throated support or sink any real costs into the conflict.

Instead, they opted for limited assistance in the form of small-scale intelligence and diplomatic support.

As a scholar of international security and great power politics I believe that is for good reason. Beijing and Moscow were fully aware that Iran could not “win” against the combined military might of the United States and Israel. Rather, Iran just needed to survive to serve the interests of Washington’s main geopolitical rivals.

Below are four ways in which the U.S. war in Iran has damaged Washington’s position in the great power rivalries of the 21st century.

1. Losing the influence war in the Middle East

As I explore in my book “Defending Frenemies,” the U.S. has long struggled to balance competing objectives in the Middle East. During the Cold War, this meant limiting the Soviet Union’s influence in the region, while contending with the development of nuclear weapons by two troublesome allies, Israel and Pakistan.

By the 2020s, the priorities in Washington were aimed at restricting the influence of the U.S.’s great power rivals – China and to a lesser degree Russia – in the Middle East.

Yet under Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, China and Russia have sought to increase their footprint in the region through a variety of formal alliances and informal measures.

For Russia, this took the form of aligning with Iran, while also partnering with Tehran to prop up the now-ousted regime of President Bashar Assad during the Syrian civil war. Meanwhile, China increased its diplomatic profile in the Middle East, notably by acting as a mediator as Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic ties in 2023.

The irony of the latest Iran war is that it follows a period in which circumstances were unfavorable to Russian and Chinese aims of increasing their influence in the Middle East.

The fall of Assad in December 2024 deprived Russia of its one reliable ally in the region. And Trump’s May 2025 tour of the Gulf states, in which he secured major technology and economic deals with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, was aimed at countering China’s growing economic and diplomatic influence in those countries.

With Washington perceived as an increasingly unreliable protector, the Gulf states may seek greater security and economic cooperation elsewhere.

2. Taking US eyes off other strategic goals

In expanding military, diplomatic and economic ties in the Middle East, Russia and China over the past two decades were exploiting a desire by Washington to move its assets and attention away from the region following two costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Trump’s decision to wage war against Iran directly contradicts the national security strategy his administration released in November 2025. According to the strategy, the administration would prioritize the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific, while the Middle East’s importance “will recede.”

In co-launching a war in Tehran with Israel, without any prior consultation with Washington’s other allies, Trump has shown a complete disregard for their strategic and economic concerns. NATO, already riven by Trump’s repeated threats to the alliance and designs on Greenland, has now shown further signs of internal divisions.

That offers benefits for China and Russia, which have long sought to capitalize on cracks between America and its allies.

The irony, again, is that the war in Iran came as Trump’s vision of the U.S. as the hegemonic power in the Western Hemisphere was making advances. International law and legitimacy concerns aside, Washington had ousted a thorn in its side with Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and replaced him with a more compliant leader.

3. Disproportionate economic fallout

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20% of the world’s oil passes, was as predictable as it was destructive for U.S. interests.

But for Russia, this meant higher oil prices that boosted its war economy. It also led to the temporary but ongoing easing of U.S. sanctions, which has provided Moscow an indispensable lifeline after years of economic pressure over the war in Ukraine.

While a prolonged closure and extensive damage to oil and natural gas infrastructure in Iran and the Gulf states no doubt hurts China’s energy security and economy, these were risks Xi appears willing to accept, at least for a time.

And by building up a domestic oil reserve and diversifying energy sources to include solar, electric batteries and coal, China is far better positioned to weather a prolonged global energy crisis than the U.S. Indeed, Beijing has made strides in recent year to encourage domestic consumption as a source of economic growth, rather than be so reliant on global trade. That may have given China some protection during the global economic shock caused by the Iran war, as well as push the economy further down its own track.

The more the U.S. loses control over events in the strait, the more it loses influence in the region – especially as Iran appears to be placing restrictions on ships from unfriendly nations.

4. Loss of global leadership

Trump’s willingness to abandon talks to go to war, and the contradictory rhetoric he has employed throughout the Iran conflict, has weakened the perception of the U.S. as an honest broker.

That provides a massive soft power boost for Beijing. It was China that pressed Iran to accept the 14-day ceasefire proposal brokered by Pakistan. Indeed, China has slowly chipped away at America’s longtime status as global mediator of first resort.

Beijing has successfully mediated in the past between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and it attempted to do the same with Russia and Ukraine and Israel and the Palestinians.

In general, the Iran war adds weight to Beijing’s worldview that the U.S.-led liberal international order is over. Even if China benefited at some level from the war continuing, its decision to help broker the ceasefire shows that China is increasingly taking on the mantle of global leadership that the U.S. used to own.

And for Russia, the Iran war and the rupture between Trump and America’s NATO allies over their lack of support for it, shift world attention and U.S. involvement from the war in Ukraine.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice. 

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When To See a Bipolar Disorder Therapist for Support

Bipolar disorder does not announce itself with a single, obvious sign. It builds gradually through shifting moods, disrupted sleep, and strained connections that slowly chip away at stability. Many people wait too long before reaching out, often because they are unsure whether what they feel warrants professional attention. The truth is, earlier support tends to produce better results. This post breaks down the specific moments when seeing a therapist becomes less of an option and more of a necessity.

Mood Episodes Are Becoming More Frequent

Everyone experiences emotional ups and downs from time to time. That is part of being human. But there is a meaningful difference between a rough week and a pattern of intense mood shifts that cycle with increasing speed. Manic highs that fuel sleepless nights, followed by depressive crashes that make getting out of bed feel impossible, point to something clinical. A mental health professional can evaluate these patterns and determine whether a formal treatment plan is needed.

Often, the people closest to someone notice these shifts before the individual does. A partner might point out erratic spending during a manic stretch, or a friend might flag sudden social withdrawal. That outside perspective matters. Working with a bipolar disorder therapist gives individuals a reliable framework for managing these cycles. Specialists in this area use evidence-based methods to help clients recognize triggers, build coping mechanisms, and develop routines that promote emotional balance over time.

Relationships Are Suffering

Mood instability ripples outward. During manic periods, impulsive remarks or restless irritability can damage even the strongest bonds. Depressive stretches often bring isolation, leaving loved ones feeling shut out. Over months or years, these cycles create a pattern of rupture and repair that exhausts everyone involved.

A therapist offers a contained space to examine how these emotional extremes affect the people around us. Practical tools, like communication exercises and emotional regulation techniques, make a real difference. In some cases, joint sessions with a partner or family member help rebuild trust and establish healthier ways of supporting one another.

Daily Responsibilities Feel Unmanageable

Missed deadlines, ignored bills, and mounting household tasks are clear signs that symptoms have started affecting everyday functioning. Mania can produce intense bursts of activity that burn out quickly, leaving projects half-finished. Depression strips away drive entirely, turning even minor obligations into exhausting ordeals.

Work and Academic Performance

A noticeable drop in output at a job or in coursework deserves attention. Difficulty in concentrating, gaps in memory, and unpredictable energy levels all interfere with consistent performance. A clinician experienced with mood disorders can help design strategies for staying on track during difficult stretches, including structured scheduling and energy management techniques.

Self-Medication or Risky Behavior Has Started

Reaching for alcohol, substances, or other high-risk outlets to blunt emotional extremes is a serious red flag. These habits offer short-term numbness but deepen instability over time. They also raise the likelihood of developing a co-occurring substance use condition, which complicates treatment significantly.

Therapeutic intervention targets the underlying emotional pain that fuels these choices. Cognitive behavioral techniques, consistent mood monitoring, and coordinated medication management work together to reduce reliance on harmful coping habits. Seeking support before these behaviors become deeply rooted improves recovery outcomes considerably.

A Previous Diagnosis Exists, but Treatment Has Lapsed

It is surprisingly common for people to step away from treatment after a period of stability. Feeling good can create a false sense of resolution, as though the condition has somehow passed. Bipolar disorder, however, is a lifelong condition. Symptoms almost always resurface without ongoing care.

Re-engaging with a mental health provider after time away is a practical and encouraged step. Treatment plans can be adjusted to reflect new life circumstances, updated research, or changes in symptom presentation. Consistent clinical engagement lowers the risk of severe episodes and reduces the chance of hospitalization.

Suicidal Thoughts or Self-Harm Urges Arise

This is the most critical signal, and it calls for immediate action. Depressive episodes tied to bipolar disorder carry a heightened risk of suicidal thinking. No one should sit with those thoughts alone. Crisis hotlines, emergency services, and urgent therapy appointments all exist for exactly this reason.

After a crisis passes, sustained therapeutic support helps build a safety plan and identify warning signs before they escalate again.

Conclusion

Asking for help is one of the most grounded, self-aware decisions a person can make. Whether mood episodes are accelerating, personal connections are fraying, or basic responsibilities have become overwhelming, a qualified therapist provides clarity and direction. Each session offers a chance to learn new tools, process difficult emotions, and build a more stable foundation. That first appointment is not the end of a struggle; it is the beginning of a more informed, supported way of living with bipolar disorder.

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Choosing the Right Medical Red Light Therapy System

There is a growing interest in medical red light therapy for improving health. Choosing the right device is not that easy. The effectiveness and potential use for home or clinic can be affected by several factors. Both individuals and healthcare providers need to evaluate their choices before acting on them.

Understanding Red Light Therapy

Red light treatment includes exposure to particular wavelengths of light. This therapy serves as an aid in recovery, minimizes pain, and enhances the appearance of the skin. Devices come in different sizes, power, and functionality. Understanding these distinctions allows users to make informed decisions about medical red light therapy systems.

Assessing Intended Use

Identifying the primary purpose for acquiring a red light therapy system is essential. Some units are suitable for home use, while others fit clinical environments. Home devices focus on convenience and ease of operation. Professional tools may offer higher intensity and advanced settings suitable for practitioners.

Evaluating Wavelength and Power Output

Wavelength is a critical factor in therapeutic efficacy. The majority of systems function in the 600 to 900 nanometer range. Each wavelength range targets varied tissues and conditions. Power output determines the depth and efficiency of what you’re treating; power output is measured in mW/cm2. Some systems have settings that enable users to customize sessions according to needs.

Examining Safety and Certification

When deciding on medical equipment, safety continues to be a primary concern. Therapy systems receive certification for their adherence to known health and electrical safety standards. Certifications from respected organizations can instill confidence in the user. By reading the product documentation, you can make sure the device can fulfil these needs. Check for components that enable heat regulation to ensure enhanced user safety.

Comparing Device Size and Design

There are different types of therapy devices that providers offer. Smaller units are for targeted treatments and ease of travel. Large panels are good for people looking for a broader treatment area or treating multiple regions at once. Design aspects, including adjustable stands or flexible arms, offer added ease and comfort while using the device.

Investigating Treatment Protocols

Many devices offer pre-defined protocols for some common issues. These settings can be used to simplify use and to help achieve reproducible results. Meanwhile, some devices allow you to manually adjust them, providing more control over session length and intensity to more experienced users. Glancing through the available settings allows users to find a system that matches their preferences. 

Considering Ease of Use

User-friendly design ensures therapy remains accessible to everyone. Clear instructions, intuitive controls, and simple interfaces support effective operation. Devices with minimal setup and maintenance requirements save time and reduce frustration. Evaluating these aspects can improve the therapy experience for all users.

Reviewing Customer Support and Warranty

A dependable customer support can help with queries and concerns during the use of the product. Check the warranty coverage and ensure it protects you against defects or malfunctions. Manufacturers that offer responsive support when needed and set clear policies show that they are committed to customer service. Users get a sense of security in their purchase decisions once they browse through these services before buying.

Analyzing Cost and Value

Comparing models that are priced similarly helps when trying to identify what works best for your budget. Basic functions and durability might be sacrificed in favor of a lower price, or, on the other hand, you can pay more for a more sophisticated piece of technology, with a longer warranty. Maintain a balance between affordability and functionality, to guarantee a value-for-money investment.

Seeking Peer and Professional Guidance

Users and medical professionals provide valuable feedback. Expert opinions, evaluations, and endorsements tend to expose either positive or negative characteristics of individual models. Consulting with a medical professional also ensures that the selected system aligns with health needs and safety standards. Getting a variety of viewpoints helps make good choices.

Conclusion

Choosing a medical red light therapy system can be difficult. However, paying attention to safety, performance, usability, and support can help users figure out the right device that suits their individual needs. Selecting the right device optimizes therapy outcomes, which leads to more satisfaction. All in all, be it for personal or professional use, with an informed decision, people can leverage the positive effects of red light therapy, hassle-free.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice. 

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Gauging ‘Independence’ from Trump

Tuesday’s Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, the recent forced resignations from the Cabinet and the poorly veiled entreaty to two Supreme Court justices to step down all point up anew the power of Donald Trump to name a team that is more committed to him than to doing the job.

Trump has a free hand, of course, in naming those who work in the White House and who offer direct counsel on policy and messaging. But things get messy fast when the job at hand is supposed to involve a certain distant expertise not governed by Trump’s expansive gut, whether health, education, defense or monetary policy.

The key question for senators at all the Cabinet-level confirmation hearings has been the same: Will you act independently of Trump or merely as his tool to dominate yet another area of government?

Despite a messy war with Iran that is goosing oil prices globally, Trump still expects that Warsh will bring about an immediate and significant drop in the basic borrowing rates that look to economists and financial experts as an invitation to sustained inflation or worse. Trump wants the investor class to have access to cheap loans and seems to ignore the predictable effect on consumer markets.

Quite apart from any judgments about Jerome Powell as Fed chair concerning monetary rates or economic forecasts, Powell will be remembered for standing up to Trump – which is why Trump wants him replaced even if any confirmation is delayed.

 Upset in the Cabinet

By contrast, other than for their publicly embarrassing confrontations with Congress, no one really understands why Kristi Noem was ousted as Homeland Security Secretary or Pam Bondi was forced out as a willing accomplice at using the Justice Department to pursue Trump’s perceived political enemies. It’s not as if any policies suddenly changed as a result.

Nor does this week’s departure of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer spell any policy change, though it eliminates some bad publicity for her behaviors, a fate that may consume Kash Patel’s time as director of the FBI as well.

From all that is publicly shared about Warsh, a prominent economist, investment banker and former Federal Reserve governor who worked on the  navigating the 2008 financial crisis, he would be the type of candidate to sail through the Republican-majority Senate confirmation process, despite criticisms from ranking minority committee member, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

The sticking point is his explanation of “independence,”

As with Todd Blanche, the former Trump defense lawyer serving as interim Attorney General, Warsh sees little wrong with Trump expressing strong opinions about how he, Warsh, would do the job at the Fed. Blanche says Trump should have opinions about who gets prosecuted by Justice, and that Justice should heed the advice. Warsh was seeking to be careful at his hearing about just how far to show deference to Trump as dictator of national monetary policy – an area set by law for review independent of the partisan concerns of a president.

Decisions by the Fed are supposed to reflect technical economic readings, not the political needs of a president facing an adverse mid-term election for a would-be quick-fix rate drop. But Trump wants the “lowest rates in the world” so badly that he has ordered the Justice Department to launch criminal investigation of Powell’s management of construction – and Fed board member Lisa Cook — in hope of forcing him out. Courts have ruled twice now that search warrants were unjustified because they reflected political concern, not crime.  At least one senator, Thom Tillis, R-NC, says he won’t support Warsh while unjustified charges still loom for Powell, himself a Trump appointee to the Fed chair.

No economic measure has improved for an incoming Warsh. Indeed, the war with Iran, tariffs, a budget bloated for deportation and military adventurism, and global pricing and shipping uncertainties will make any legit reduction in Fed rates more difficult to achieve. So, we know now that Warsh will become a focal point for whether Trump gets his way.

Disdaining Expertise

The problem for senators was crafting a way to gauge protestations of “independence” by Warsh or even on the questions involving economic direction at a time of so much uncertainty. It was easier to focus on the White House’s vocal anti-Powell campaign.

Indeed, senators questioned Warsh’s undisclosed personal investments and whether he has complied with required ethics declarations, his willingness to back limits over cybercurrency and AI, and the pace of Fed decision-making, but the main question kept coming back to queries that tried repeatedly to get at the independence issue.

Warsh’s attempts to say that he would not routinely follow Trump’s open demands on interest rates drew a healthy amount of skepticism from senators who noted that Trump makes clear his expectation of appointees.

What does not get discussion is how Trump goes out of way to disdain expertise in reviewing appointments. The problem with using loyalty as the only measurement consistently is creating continuing problems for Trump in health policies that kick people off Medicaid and close hospitals, in deportation campaigns that overrun legal boundaries, in environmental policies that ignore pollution to promote more oil drilling and on through the Cabinet positions.

There is too little sustained focus on the aims of these agencies, and a lot on the willingness of agencies to reinterpret their own authority to evade accountability.

In monetary policy, as with other areas, Trump starts with the desired conclusion and then skips over the available evidence – much as seemed to have happened in launching this war with Iran. For the Fed, he has decided that lower rates are what he needs, without regard to the voluminous economic review that the Fed undertakes.

The “independence” of the Fed is supposed to guarantee that expertise, not political ends, govern.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice. 

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Thursday 23 April 1663

St. George’s day and Coronacion, the King and Court being at Windsor, at the installing of the King of Denmark by proxy and the Duke of Monmouth.

I up betimes, and with my father, having a fire made in my wife’s new closet above, it being a wet and cold day, we sat there all the morning looking over his country accounts ever since his going into the country. I find his spending hitherto has been (without extraordinary charges) at full 100l. per annum, which troubles me, and I did let him apprehend it, so as that the poor man wept, though he did make it well appear to me that he could not have saved a farthing of it. I did tell him how things stand with us, and did shew my distrust of Pall, both for her good nature and housewifery, which he was sorry for, telling me that indeed she carries herself very well and carefully, which I am glad to hear, though I doubt it was but his doting and not being able to find her miscarriages so well nowadays as he could heretofore have done.

We resolve upon sending for Will Stankes up to town to give us a right understanding in all that we have in Brampton, and before my father goes to settle every thing so as to resolve how to find a living for my father and to pay debts and legacies, and also to understand truly how Tom’s condition is in the world, that we may know what we are like to expect of his doing ill or well.

So to dinner, and after dinner to the office, where some of us met and did a little business, and so to Sir W. Batten’s to see a little picture drawing of his by a Dutchman which is very well done.

So to my office and put a few things in order, and so home to spend the evening with my father. At cards till late, and being at supper, my boy being sent for some mustard to a neat’s tongue, the rogue staid half an hour in the streets, it seems at a bonfire, at which I was very angry, and resolve to beat him to-morrow.

Read the annotations

Organ donation after euthanasia in the Netherlands

In the Netherlands, not only is it legal to receive medical aid in dying (MAID), but  a growing number of MAID patients are able to successfully achieve their desire to become deceased organ donors.

 From the American Journal of Transplantation:

 Wijbenga, N., Gan, C.T., Ruigrok, D., Berg, E.M., Hagenaars, J.A.M., Siregar, S., van der Kaaij, N.P., Mathot, B.J., van Pel, R., Seghers, L. and Manintveld, O.C., 2026. The Increasing Contribution of Organ Donation after Euthanasia to the Lung Transplantation Donor Pool in the Netherlands. American Journal of Transplantation. 

 "Abstract: The number of organ donation after euthanasia (ODE) procedures in the Netherlands has grown substantially, yet their contribution to the lung-donor pool remains unclear. There is no clinical consensus on how these potential ODE lung-donors should be assessed. We aimed to describe the total contribution of ODE to the lung-donor pool in the Netherlands and describe the assessment of potential ODE lung-donors.
We collected data from all ODE procedures performed between 2012-2024 in the Netherlands. We assessed the number of ODE-lungs offered, rejected, accepted, and transplanted, comparing characteristics of discarded and transplanted lungs.
Of 1166 lung-donor, 664(60%) were DCD donors of which 154(23%) were ODE lung-donors. The total proportion of donor lungs from ODE lung-donors acceptable to offer for lung transplantation was 117 of which 104 (89%) were transplanted.
Evaluation prior to donation was highly variable, with medical history and chest CT most affecting acceptance decisions. Short-term outcomes were excellent, with 1-year survival of 84%.
Our findings indicate that ODE lung donors are increasingly important in the Netherlands, with high acceptance rates, despite highly variable evaluation methods. Standardizing the assessment of potential ODE lung donors could further improve acceptance rates and enhance the contribution of ODE to the lung-donor pool."

FAFO and Other Things We Learned in the 2025-26 Redistricting Wars

We had an illustration Tuesday night of one of the most crucial questions in our current politics and the one that will determine whether civic democracy can have a rebirth in the U.S. Gerrymandering is a bane to civic democracy because it dilutes the expression of the popular will by building district lines around partisan advantage or to diminish the power of disempowered minorities. Democrats spent much of the 2010s and 2020s fighting a legal and legislative battle against gerrymandering. But the Roberts Court has chosen to legalize every manner of gerrymandering, making the current a destructive race to the bottom.

Democrats had a choice. They could express effete outrage and a meaningless devotion to broken norms and principles and agree to wage elections on a permanently tilted plane. Or they could decide to play by the rules Republicans had forced on everyone. They did just that and it was unquestionable the right decision by every measure. It really never seemed to occur to Trump Republicans that Democrats would fight on the playbook Republicans created. There’s a special comedy to this because anyone familiar with the facts on the ground knew that Republicans had already used gerrymandering much more aggressively than Democrats. So there was much more juice in the gerrymandering lemon for Democrats if and when they decided to employ tactics Republicans have been using for more than a decade. It’s worth Democrats considering how deeply Republicans had internalized the belief that Democrats would simply never respond in kind.

If you’re worried about where this goes long term there’s a simple solution: Ask any Democrat who supports fighting the redistricting wars to vote for a national redistricting law. This isn’t some notional outcome. It should be and I believe is still at the top of any Democratic reform agenda: non-partisan electoral districts. What usually goes unreported is that even the Virginia gerrymandering referendum, which has caused MAGA tears to flood X, mandates that the state go back to the non-partisan rules after the 2030 census. (Voters passed the measure on Tuesday, but the state Supreme Court still has to hear several legal challenges against it). If Republicans now suddenly see the shortcomings of the rules they and their corrupt judicial allies created then they can join with the new Democratic majority next year and pass a national anti-gerrymandering law. It’s really so simple. You need to acquire power by every legal means in order to enact change.

This is a critical moment because it previews equally critical decision points in the future. There is no possibility of a civic democratic revival in the United States without abolishing the filibuster and reforming the corrupt Supreme Court. These both now exist as either substantial (in the first instance) or total (in the case of Supreme Court corruption) impediments to democratic self-government in the United States. I’ve been giving a lot of thought of late to just what kind of new social contract can be devised to succeed the ones created in the New Deal and early Cold War eras. I have only a very limited insight into what that might be. What I understand much more clearly are the structural changes required to create any rebirth of a civic democratic future in the U.S. We’ve spoken about them plenty before: abolish the filibuster and reform the corrupt Supreme Court. These are the sine qua non reforms without which small-d democratic self-government in the United States is really no longer possible.

The question now is whether Democrats can bring the same fight and clarity to these questions as they did, to the surprise of many, to redistricting. I’ve noted a number of times that it’s critical what kind of majorities Democrats elect if they elect them. The most important spectrum is not conventional left and right but clarity about the need for structural reform and indifference to kinds of false propriety that stand in the way. The irony is that it may be harder to get Democrats united behind these reforms even though the positive case is much more straightforward. Aggressive partisan gerrymandering is a bad thing which Republicans have forced on Democrats as the only path to maintaining and expanding political power. The filibuster is an affirmatively bad thing which primarily places limits on Democrats. Supreme Court corruption has remade the Court not simply into an effective veto on the kind of expansive government Democrats once championed but now, far more straightforwardly, on any Democratic government at all. The current Supreme Court is nothing more than another legislative filibuster, housed in the judicial branch, and crusted over with Harvard and Yale JDs to make it look pretty to the gullible.

What happened Tuesday night and which has happened more generally in the redistricting wars comes down to a simple question of aspiration: can the majority of Democrats learn how to acquire and use political power effectively and be willing to do so? The redistricting battles suggest the answer is yes, more than a lot of people thought. Killing the filibuster and reforming the corrupt Supreme Court are the next critical, sine qua non tests.

Congress Nixing Oversight of ICE and Great Replacement Hysteria in Texas

We have two noteworthy pieces for you this morning in TPM Cafe, both in different ways speaking to the state of the GOP.

  • Government agencies are normally funded for a year at a time, but Senate Republicans appeared poised, through the budget reconciliation process, to fund ICE and CBP for three years, depriving a potential, future Democratic House (or Senate) majority of a key check Congress can exercise over the executive branch: the power of the purse. A budget reconciliation bill lasting through the end of Trump’s term would insulate ICE from attempts at congressional reform of the type Democrats have been demanding since February. Charles Tiefer, former general counsel of the U.S. House of Representatives and a widely quoted expert on congressional oversight, sounds the alarm.
  • For history professor A.K. Sandoval-Strausz, Josh Kovensky’s recent reporting — on the far-right’s attempt to create a state and even nation-wide controversy about the presence of Indian immigrants in Texas — brought to mind a 2006 furor in Texas, which pit nativist figures like Rush Limbaugh against a more moderate GOP than the one we have today, inspiring Congress to attempt an immigration crackdown that was later derailed by pro-immigrant activism. It’s a fascinating story and one that underscores what has become a theme at TPM: The extent to which, two decades later, the fringe has won control — at least for now. Read that here.

Why I Believe in Karma

I’ve grown reluctant to use the K word—because it’s so easily misunderstood.

As soon as people hear me say karma, they think I’m spouting off mystical gibberish. I might as well lay out tarot cards or peer into a crystal ball. I’m just a step away from joining a UFO cult.


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It’s true—I have a high tolerance for metaphysics. But when I refer to karma, I’m talking about hardheaded science. I’m drawing on empirical studies and historical evidence.

Yes, I believe karma can be demonstrated via psychology and social science, but also mathematically. It’s almost like Newton’s third law—actions in one direction create responses in the opposite direction—only applied to human behavior. Once you understand how it works, you see it everywhere.

For example, I find validation in the game theory competitions Robert Axelrod conducted in the 1980s. He invited experts to participate in contests based on the Prisoner’s Dilemma—but lasting 200 rounds. In each round, players were forced to choose between cooperation and betrayal.

But here’s the twist. In the Prisoner’s Dilemma, cooperation only wins if your adversary also cooperates. You lose if your opponent is willing to betray you. And everybody loses if both parties betray each other.

So what’s the winning strategy?

Participants tested various solutions in these competitions, some of them quite elaborate—drawing on advanced statistical analysis. But the simplest strategy was the winner.

This winning strategy was “tit-for-tat.” You did to others what happened to you in the previous round. If you encountered cooperation, you tried it the next time. But if you got betrayed, you mimicked that behavior in the following round.

It was amazing that a tactic so simple could defeat more sophisticated strategies. It suggested that there was something inherently powerful in reciprocity. Just as the proverb predicts: As you sow, so shall you reap.

This is what we call karma—the tendency of the universe to give you in return what you have given others. But now it was vindicated by game theory.

Temple decoration in Ranakpur, India. The knots depict the interlocking chain of karma.

I studied the results of Axelrod’s tournaments while I was a student at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business. But at that very same moment, a brilliant thinker was reaching a similar conclusion a few hundred yards away inside Stanford’s Department of French and Italian.

His name was René Girard.

Read more

Links 4/23/26

Links for you. Science:

Why this NASA climate scientist wants you to stay angry
Clinical Trials Were Not Always This Complicated
After harsh winter, Ukrainians find joy in releasing bats rescued from war
US Scientists Sequence 1,000 Genomes From Measles, a Disease Long Eliminated With Vaccines
Antibiotic use and gut microbiome composition links from individual-level prescription data of 14,979 individuals
A complete set of canonical nucleobases in the carbonaceous asteroid (162173) Ryugu
CDC delays publishing report showing covid vaccine benefits

Other:

How the Internet Fringe Infiltrated Republican Politics
Not Enough Teen Pregnancy (“…I remember when journalists would happily maintain the fiction that all young Republican staffers and politicians were virgins until marriage…”)
Harvard scientist’s visa was unlawfully canceled, judge finds
Donald Trump Impeachment Backed by Most Americans: Poll
In D.C.’s mayoral race, everyone wants more housing
Sam Altman Is Giving OpenAI a Makeover to Woo Democrats
He was willing to testify against the cartel — but ICE got to him first
What if we’d followed a 1912 plan to build streetcar tunnels around the White House?
Louisiana GOP races to eliminate an elected office won by an exonerated man (Republicans are so petty)
TRUMP RETREATS INTO THE RIGHT-WING BUBBLE
Hegseth’s Pentagon Purge: Under the cover of the Iran war, Pete Hegseth moved to oust Army chief Randy George, a staunch ally of his archnemesis and untouchable Pentagon rival, Dan Driscoll. Was it a well-calculated plot, a sign of his juice, or maybe a signal that J.D. Vance has lost some of his foreign policy sway?
Well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war draw calls for investigations from lawmakers
War makes some Tucson Raytheon employees, retirees question work
Donald Trump’s Unfreedom of the Seas: The president is giving up on centuries of wealth and power.
Trump administration plans to attack Biden DOJ as ‘anti-Christian’ in new report
Trump’s SAVE America Act would end voter registration drives nationwide
Chicago Turns All Public School IDs Into Library Cards To Boost Student Access
Surprise inspection finds ICE stuffing migrants ‘like sardines’ into a facility with no bed, showers
Repealing Section 230 as antitrust
Inside Alligator Alcatraz, Wasserman Schultz finds men crammed in cages, smell of urine, inadequate food
Shin Bet Chief Does Not View Jewish Attacks on Palestinians as Terror
Why is Melania Trump suddenly making a big deal about the “fact” that she never had anything at all to do with Jeffrey Epstein?
Netanyahu-ism has achieved nothing for Israelis – and come at a monstrously high price
Why I’m betting on ATProto (and why you should, too)
Kentucky Republicans Are Trying to Impeach a Judge For Acknowledging That Racism Exists
Donald Trump’s Plan To Steal Or Destroy Everything
Getting New York City to Believe in Government
Former staffer says Rep. Eric Swalwell, candidate for California governor, sexually assaulted her
Israel’s War in Lebanon Has Not Stopped
Trump Tirade at MAGA War Critics Accidentally Makes Surprise Admission

What does it mean for What does it mean for


Thomas Gresham is underrated

While northern professions in 1600 did not require lengthy training in mathematics or science, there was popular interest in these topics. England’s first chair in mathematics was endowed by Thomas Gresham,61 who had founded London’s Royal Exchange and pledged the rents from that institution to fund seven professorships, who would not train student but would rather give two public lectures (in Latin and English) each week. As Gresham also gave chairs in astronomy and “physik,” this produced a cluster of scientifically minded individuals, who would later play an outsized role in the founding of the Royal Society. Robert Hooke was the Gresham Professor of Geometry, William Petty the Gresham Professor of Music, and Christopher Wren the Gresham Professor of Astronomy.

Perhaps because of Gresham’s public lectures, interest in mathematics grew. More professorships followed, including the mid-17th century Lucasian Chair in Mathematics (after William Lucas, member of parliament for Cambridge), for which Isaac Newton would be the second occupant (Clark, 1904). The popular interest in science also meant that teachers at urban universities could fill public lecture halls by teaching about chemistry, and even performing public chemistry experiments.

That is from a new NBER working paper by David M. Cutler and Edward L. Glaeser, “How Have Universities Survived for Nearly a Millennium?”  Has any single individual funded three equally prestigious chairs or anything close to that?

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You want your Moon landings in HD? So does NASA—here's how it's happening.

During most of the Artemis II mission, the crew of four astronauts beamed back low-definition video, both from inside the spacecraft and from exterior views of the Moon. It was exhilarating stuff, but in a world in which we're all watching HDTVs, it also felt a little flat.

This is because Orion largely communicated with Earth via radio waves, picked up by large dishes sprinkled around the world. This is pretty much the same way the Apollo spacecraft talked to Earth more than half a century ago.

However, unlike Apollo, the astronauts on Orion would periodically send batches of much higher-resolution data, including the stunning photographs of the far side of the Moon and the Solar eclipse observed from there. This was made possible by optical laser communications, and not just those built by NASA. The mission included a commercial component that could pave the way for vastly more data returning to Earth from space than ever before.

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[ESSAYS] MacBook Neo and How the iPad Could Be

The iPad should be radically (though obviously) touch-only. No keyboards. No pointers. No mice. No trackpads. Just your disgusting fingers flopping over the screen and mooshing into icons. It should not have any window’d modes. Each app should fill the whole screen and only the whole screen.

iPad apps should be weird as hell, unlike anything you find on a desktop operating system. PushPopPress began to illuminate this path fifteen years ago, and then they got slurped up — like so many other promising, young, talented designers and companies around that time — by Facebook, only to disappear into the wake of Mark Zuckerberg’s electric hydrofoil surfboard. Using an iPad should feel like a finger ballet. Your hands should be swooping and swiping and the whole OS should feel like skipping across a taut slackline, a bit bouncy and pleasing and physical but also precise and quick and focused taking you where you need to go, across some creative gulf. There should be no “hard edges” anywhere. iPadOS shouldn’t be anything like Windows or macOS or Linux, it shouldn’t be iOS made big, it should be only like iPadOS — a singular thing of finger-poking joy. When you pick up one of those magic slabs (and truly, the amount of engineering and power in those thin-as-heck slabs is something else) you should feel giddy, like you’re about to enter a whole ’nother computer-ing universe, one that is all about elegant multitouch tactility, worlds apart from your phone or your laptop.

Thursday assorted links

1. The rise of Chinese micro-dramas.

2. Niklas Luhmann.

3. Why Rome never industrialized (YouTube video).

4. One account of the genocidal impulse.

5. Organs on demand?  We will see.

6. U.S. at the Venice Biennial (NYT).

7. “Argentina’s economy shrank 2.6 per cent in February compared to January, the largest monthly contraction since President Javier Milei took office in late 2023, as his inflation-busting economic programme weighed on major industries.”  FT link here.

8. Some observations on Iran.

9. David Malouf, RIP.

10. A fragment of Homer’s Iliad inside an Egyptian mummy?

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Is China's soft power really rising, or is America's just crumbling?

Soft power is notoriously hard to quantify, but it’s difficult to argue that global soft power has been shifting steadily toward East Asia in recent decades. A few years ago I wrote a post about how South Korea became a cultural superpower on purpose, while Japan became one by accident:

The big question then was: When does China get its turn? China is a lot bigger than either Japan or Korea, so you might assume that if the world loves East Asian stuff, we might eventually get a Chinese Wave. So far, it’s been slow to arrive. In my post about the Chinese Century last year, I argued that China’s closed political system meant that its cultural influence would lag its technological and geopolitical might:

In the cultural realm, I expect China to be more isolated and less influential than America was…China is a deeply repressive nation, with universal surveillance, fine-grained media and speech control, and ubiquitous censorship. That’s the kind of society where only anodyne, cautious artistry can flourish, except in tiny subcultural pockets too small for the government to worry about…China’s leaders will also...continue to use the Great Firewall to “protect” Chinese people from the memes and ideas produced by the rest of the world. So artistic and cultural ferment will arrive in China only weakly, and with a lag. It will be orphaned from the global discussion…So while I expect China to produce some hit video games and big-budget movies, I don’t think it will do much to push the boundaries of culture, despite the individual creativity of its people.

In a follow-up post on Sinofuturism, I reiterated this prediction:

But as I noted in that post, the past year has seen the rise of breathless “I went to China” videos by American social media influencers. Although so far the videos are pretty shallow stuff — mostly just breathless videos and photos of China’s grandiose infrastructure — there’s a possibility it could be the start of the long-awaited Chinese Wave of soft power.

The “Chinamaxxing” trend feels a bit fake

Fast forward a year, and some people are claiming the wave has begun. There has been a “Chinamaxxing” trend on English-language social media:

[T]he phenomenon of “Chinamaxxing” has swept feeds with videos of people sipping hot water, shuffling around the house in slippers and donning a viral Adidas jacket resembling historic Chinese fashion…These things, content creators joke, will help you “become Chinese” – reflecting a growing Western fascination with Chinese culture and aesthetics…“Morning routine as a new Chinese baddie,” one TikTok creator captioned a video in which he does a series of traditional Chinese exercises. Another video, viewed more than 2.4 million times as of late February, shows the creator boiling apples to make fruit tea – a supposedly old-school Chinese elixir for gut health.

And here’s Fortune:

On TikTok, a growing wave of Gen Z creators—American first, then European, then global—are declaring themselves to be in their “Chinese era.” They’re drinking hot water. They’re eating hotpot. They’re wearing slippers indoors and marveling at the electric buzz of Chinese city life. They’re calling it “Chinamaxxing.”…

Spend five minutes in the Chinamaxxing corner of TikTok, and a clear aesthetic emerges. The videos cluster into a few recognizable genres. There’s “wellness and longevity mode” — warm water with fruit, herbal teas, gua sha, early bedtimes, gentle morning exercises, all framed as ancient secrets to soft living. There’s “uncle core,” in which creators affectionately mimic Chinese retirees: tracksuits, sidewalk squatting, communal street-side beers, a whole visual argument against American hustle culture.

But despite all the stories about this trend (here’s Slate, NPR, the AP, and the BBC if you want some others), it doesn’t feel like the kind of soft power wave we’ve seen from Korea and other countries. There are few actual Chinese products or creations involved here. Western youngsters are not, in general, watching Chinese dramas or microdramas, listening to Chinese music, or playing Chinese video games. Adidas, with its viral Chinese-style jacket, is a German company.

The most trumpeted Chinese cultural products still don’t seem to be finding much purchase outside China. Ne Zha 2, often trumpeted as the highest-grossing animated film of all time, earned over 99% of its revenue in mainland China. Black Myth: Wukong, the most famous Chinese video game, got over three quarters of its Steam sales from China.1 Other than the rapper Skai Isyourgod, who has had several songs go viral on TikTok, there are not many Chinese musicians known in the West.

Instead, the “Chinamaxxing” trend seems to consist mostly of Western youngsters doing stuff they think of as stereotypically Chinese — drinking tea, doing exercises, etc. This is the kind of thing that might have gotten dinged as “cultural appropriation” eight or ten years ago. Today it’s more reasonably viewed as an expression of fascination and respect — but it’s fascination and respect from a great distance.

Then there are those videos of Chinese cities. I covered these in my post last year, but the trend is still going. There are also now a bunch of influencers who relentlessly post about how Chinese cities are the greatest. For example, there’s Jostein Hauge, an assistant professor at Cambridge who relentlessly posts about how China is ahead of the West in every regard. The alleged supremacy of China’s cities is a regular talking point:

Cynics have noted that these accounts are pretty one-note; it seems more like a deliberate publicity campaign, abetted by a few amateur enthusiasts, than an organic outpouring of enthusiasm for Chinese urbanism. The same is true of the continuing parade of breathless videos from Westerners traveling in Chinese cities — they tend to feature shots of the exact same grandiose train stations and architectural landmarks, or the insides of factories or restaurants or other buildings, rather than videos or photos of life at ground level.

That’s telling, because it stands in stark contrast to the videos and photos you tend to see from Tokyo, Paris, Hong Kong, or other popular older cities. And there’s a reason for that — as I wrote in my Sinofuturism post, Chinese cities were built incredibly quickly instead of growing organically over time. This means that they’re dominated by sterile gated tower blocks (called xiaoqu, or microdistricts), large surface streets, and huge shopping malls. There are relatively few walkable mixed-use streets lined with shops near to people’s homes. External shots of China’s newly built city centers tend to show vast concrete plazas and soaring towers — impressive, but fairly sterile.

In fact, there’s hard data to support the notion that the appeal of China’s megacities is still shallow. As of 2024, tourism to China was still way down from the years before the pandemic, and the number of Americans studying in China had collapsed even further:

Sources: US National Travel and Tourism Office, IIE Open Doors and National Bureau of Statistics of China, via GPT

Contrast this with Japan and Korea, which both get many more tourists from the U.S. than China does (despite being far smaller), and which have both seen a more complete rebound since the pandemic:

Sources: U.S. NTTO, Japan National Tourism Organization, and Korea Tourism Organization, via GPT

2025 numbers are harder to come by. Tourism to China is still recovering — up about 10% from 2024 — and American travelers are presumably part of this trend. But it’s still nothing compared to the tourism booms to Japan and South Korea, which are well above their pre-pandemic levels.

For all the breathless YouTube videos and glowing testimonials, Americans are still not going to China in large numbers, either to visit or to live.

So overall, the “Chinamaxxing” trend feels a bit fake and forced — the combination of a deliberate marketing campaign and social media influencers looking for a new niche. But there’s something else going on here as well — a statement about the declining appeal of America and the West.

Chinamaxxing is really about the decline of America

I think Fortune really puts its finger on something here:

The subtext of every “very Chinese era” video isn’t really about China. It’s about what young Americans feel they’ve been denied. Chinamaxxing romanticizes things that feel structurally out of reach at home — compact, affordable-looking apartments; public transit that works; streets safe to walk at night; multigenerational households as an antidote to loneliness; communal meals as an antidote to atomization. The comparison is implicit but unmissable: they have this, and we don’t…

Slate‘s Nitish Pahwa captured the emotional logic cleanly: “You told us we couldn’t have a high-speed railroad and universal health care, and it turns out they have it across the street! I’m going to live at their house now!”Shaoyu Yuan, a scholar who studies Chinese soft power, told NPR the trend operates on two tracks at once: one that “weakens American narrative authority by highlighting content that highlights U.S. dysfunction,” and another that “makes China look more attractive.”…

The American century was built on the world’s desire to be American…The question the turbulent 2020s is forcing is a simpler and more unsettling one: what happens when the generation that was supposed to inherit the American promise looks around at their student loans, their rent, their medical bills, and their crumbling train stations — and decides they’d rather be something else?

And CNN gets it too:

[E]xperts say the [Chinamaxxing] trend reveals deeper undercurrents like dissatisfaction among many Americans with life at home – from political turmoil, gun violence, immigration crackdowns and persistent racial tensions. All this has dulled the veneer of the US, driving curiosity for American youths to see what life is like on the other side…[I]t’s no coincidence the trend comes amid a broader decline in the US’ global image…

[V]ideos showing vertiginous skylines from Chinese metropolises…have gone viral for depicting a futuristic vision of urban life, replete with seemingly clean streets and low levels of violent crime.

In other words, American youngsters idealizing China — without actually engaging with China or knowing much about it — is really about expressing their dissatisfaction with America.

Chinamaxxing is mostly just Americaminning.

That mirrors a larger global reaction. Donald Trump’s tariffs, threats against allies, and reckless wars have turned most of the world against America. Traditionally, confidence in U.S. leadership was higher than in Chinese leadership, but this has reversed since Trump’s election:

Source: Gallup

China isn’t especially popular itself, but in the age of Trump, it looks to some people like the only natural alternative:

Source: Politico

In America, Trump’s extreme unpopularity among the youth is probably helping to drive the Chinamaxxing trend.

But it’s not just Trump and the GOP. Stories about Chinamaxxing consistently mention the safety, cleanliness, and low crime rates of Chinese cities as part of the country’s appeal. And pro-China influencers repeatedly trumpet this advantage, often showing pictures of China’s immaculate new developments with pictures of homeless encampments in America.

This is no Potemkin comparison. America really does have much worse crime and public order than other countries, including China:

There are a number of reasons for this, but progressive ideology takes much more responsibility than MAGA insanity. Blue cities’ tolerance of public homelessness and drug use, the “progressive prosecutor” movement’s permissive approach toward crime, and the consistent failure of progressive local governments to allow housing construction all contribute to the breakdown in public order that has left America’s flagship cities feeling dirty and unsafe.

It bears saying that despite the safer cities, the superiority of life in China over life in America is more myth than reality. Jacobin, the socialist magazine, recently published a good article by Daniel Cheng debunking the idea that China is a youth paradise:

Most people in China suffer from similar social and economic crises that afflict Americans today. The United States’ extreme income inequality is well-known, but China’s is comparable. After accounting for taxes and redistribution, China becomes even more unequal because it falls under the US’s (very low) standards for redistribution. While Chinese inequality has gradually shrunk over recent years, this is mostly due to compression between the top and middle of the income distribution. Those in the bottom 30 percent have been left in the lurch…

[W]hile American higher education is exorbitantly expensive, the education affordability crisis in China is even more severe. Parents have to pay for high school, and tutoring is a de facto necessity to keep up with demanding curriculums…The bottom quintile of Chinese families spend a massive 57 percent of household earnings on their children’s education…

[H]omelessness and extreme poverty are also major problems in China. Chinamaxxing influencers are simply blind to them because the government has successfully criminalized homelessness and driven the “low-end population” out of sight…Age discrimination in hiring is legal in China…D]ismissal rates rise dramatically after workers turn thirty-five…[A]n unexpected layoff can permanently condemn someone to underemployment in the gig economy.

And youth unemployment is far worse in China than in America, even after the government redefined the numbers a couple of years ago to make it look smaller:

This is probably why we don’t see a lot of American “Chinamaxxers” put their money where their mouth is. It’s a lot easier to put on a bathrobe and eat some dumplings and pretend to be a Chinese uncle on TikTok than it is to actually move to China and make a living there.

In fact, China’s leaders probably don’t care. They’re not especially interested in getting American Zoomers to move to Shenzhen or Shanghai. Their own publicity campaigns, including all the gloating over the parlous state of American cities and the constant parade of photos of fabulous new infrastructure, are probably aimed at Chinese scientists and engineers living abroad. And in fact, this campaign is succeeding to some degree, helped along by Trump’s anti-immigration jihad and progressives’ mismanagement of big cities:

For decades…Many of China’s best and brightest saw the U.S. as a land of boundless opportunity underpinned by robust rule of law…Today, America’s allure is fading. More elite Chinese youths, businesspeople and scientists are gravitating back home. Some who have returned say they are turned off not only by the U.S.’s hardening immigration enforcement, but also by its faulty infrastructure, gun violence and living costs. Back in China, many cities have grown cleaner and more livable in recent years, linked together by efficient subways and high-speed trains…

In 2021, more than 1,400 U.S.-trained Chinese scientists left American jobs for roles in China, a 22% jump from the previous year, according to a survey published by Asian American Scholar Forum, an advocacy group. Most China-born Ph.D. graduates are still choosing to stay in the U.S., with close to 80% saying they intended to remain in 2024, according to the most recent available survey data from the National Science Foundation. But high-profile departures have continued steadily…

Frequent changes in immigration rules, combined with homelessness and perceptions of high crime rates in some of the coastal cities where Chinese immigrants tend to live, are also leading people to reconsider the appeal of the American dream, according to Chinese people who have spent time in both countries.

American leaders should be a lot more worried about losing Chinese talent than about Gen Z “becoming Chinese”.

Some real green shoots of Chinese soft power

All that having been said, I do see a few glimmers of real, organic Chinese cultural appeal. One is the rise of the Chinese micro-drama or duanju. These are serial shows with scripted 1-2 minute episodes, shown in a vertical scrolling feed. It’s a truly new art form, perfect for the age of TikTok and AI. The Economist explainer posits that these dramas have flourished precisely because the flood of content is too large for China’s censors to monitor and eviscerate:

Artsy film critics are unlikely to be impressed by China’s micro-dramas. Even so, the roughly two-minute episodes, which cram soap-opera plots into a short-video format, are wildly popular. Watched almost exclusively on mobile devices, viewers can scroll mindlessly through episodes as they would clips on TikTok. Revenue in China from micro-dramas is projected to nearly double this year…Chen Ou, the founder of Jumei Film Base, a leading micro-drama studio in Zhengzhou, says his company is starting to monetise its star power with live-streaming sales…[N]early all large tech companies in China are snapping up rights to micro-dramas…Many local governments are investing in micro-drama studios…

[F]or micro-dramas, which are chock-full of the kinds of taboo topics and comedic violence that usually irk censors, industry insiders say the sheer volume of content has resulted in looser or fewer checks.

This reminds me of how manga and anime developed in Japan — it flew under the radar of the conservative oligopolies that dominated movies and TV in the postwar period, making it a haven for political radicals,2 sexual deviants, and artistic auteurs.

It’s still early days, but Chinese microdramas are starting to catch on in America. This is from Wikipedia:

ReelShort and DramaBox, the two largest Chinese short-drama platforms operating overseas, entered the U.S. market in 2022 and 2023, respectively. By August 2025, DramaBox had surpassed 100 million downloads on Google Play alone, while maintaining an average of 44 million monthly active users. Meanwhile, ReelShort surpassed 370 million downloads and raked in $700 million in revenue. By 2025, the U.S. had become the single largest revenue market outside China for vertical drama, generating approximately $58 million in monthly in-app revenue and an estimated $1.3 billion for the full year. As of 2025, ReelShort and DramaBox are the top two duanju platforms in terms of downloads and active users.

Retail is a second strong point. As China’s economy diversifies and consumption rises, some Chinese shops are also starting to make inroads into cities in America and around the world. Chagee, Heytea, Mixue, and Luckin Coffee are high-quality drink shops that seem to have real and immediate appeal (Chagee is my personal favorite).3 The stores Miniso and Popmart are appearing all over global malls, selling toys, collectibles, and various other knicknacks. Chinese fashion is starting to make inroads overseas as well.

Food and design are inherently apolitical, so it’s a lot easier for Chinese creativity to reach the world through these items than through movies, TV, or music.

A third bright spot is the city of Chongqing. Unlike the sterile, formulaic videos of Shenzhen, the videos of Chongqing’s urban canyons and cyberpunk streets feel authentic and exciting:

Even the videos complaining about the difficulty of commuting to work showcase an urban landscape so unique that it has captivated much of the world:

In fact, tourists are actually flocking to Chongqing, to see the “cyberpunk city”. One reason for Chongqing’s appeal is that unlike Shenzhen or other “Tier 1” cities, Chongqing has more “old streets” adjacent to the newly-built downtown areas, giving it some of the kind of mixed-use walkable density that cities like Hong Kong and Tokyo have. Personally, I’d love to spend some time in Chongqing, while Shenzhen looks like somewhere I’d only go in order to tour some factories and see some robots.

So in fact, I do see some real signs of China’s soft power growing organically — finding ways to flow around the walls of censorship and official marketing campaigns, exposing outsiders to a more real, raw, authentic China. It would be astonishing if a newly developed country of 1.4 billion people didn’t have plenty of natural, organic appeal. Now, despite the best efforts of the country’s masters, that appeal is starting to show itself.


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1

Marvel Rivals is made by a Chinese studio, but the IP is just Marvel superheroes.

2

The most famous right-wing anime creator is probably Nishizaki Yoshinobu of Space Battleship Yamato, while the most famous left-wing creators is almost certainly Miyazaki Hayao (of Ghibli fame). There are many other examples.

3

It’s kind of crazy that Taiwanese boba chains never expanded and became famous overseas.

FBI Extracts Deleted Signal Messages from iPhone Notification Database

404 Media reports (alternate site):

The FBI was able to forensically extract copies of incoming Signal messages from a defendant’s iPhone, even after the app was deleted, because copies of the content were saved in the device’s push notification database….

The news shows how forensic extraction—­when someone has physical access to a device and is able to run specialized software on it—­can yield sensitive data derived from secure messaging apps in unexpected places. Signal already has a setting that blocks message content from displaying in push notifications; the case highlights why such a feature might be important for some users to turn on.

“We learned that specifically on iPhones, if one’s settings in the Signal app allow for message notifications and previews to show up on the lock screen, [then] the iPhone will internally store those notifications/message previews in the internal memory of the device,” a supporter of the defendants who was taking notes during the trial told 404 Media.

But the COVID Contrarians Told Us They Were All About Intellectual Freedom

Well, TEH FREEDOMZ didn’t last too long (boldface mine):

A report showing the efficacy of the covid-19 vaccine that was previously delayed by the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been blocked from being published in the agency’s flagship scientific journal, according to three people familiar with the decision who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation. The report showed that the vaccine reduced emergency department visits and hospitalizations among healthy adults by about half this past winter.

The move, which has not been previously reported, has raised concerns among current and former officials that information about the vaccine’s benefits is being downplayed because they conflict with the views of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been an outspoken critic of the shots. Kennedy’s vaccine agenda has received pointed questioning from lawmakers during budget hearings that began last week and conclude Wednesday.

The Washington Post reported two weeks ago that Jay Bhattacharya, who is temporarily overseeing the CDC, delayed publication of the report over concerns about methodology. The report had been scheduled for publication March 19 in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

In recent days, a decision was made that the report would not be published, according to two of the people who spoke to The Post….

On Tuesday, Nixon described the decision differently: “The MMWR’s editorial assessment identified concerns regarding the methodological approach to estimating vaccine effectiveness and the manuscript was not accepted for publication,” a characterization that differs from accounts by people familiar with the report’s review…

Bhattacharya had concerns about a methodology that has long been used by the CDC to evaluate vaccine effectiveness for respiratory viruses, including influenza. A report about flu vaccine effectiveness this past winter — using the same methodology — was published in the MMWR a week earlier. An HHS official had previously said Bhattacharya was not in a position to review the earlier study and would have raised the same concerns.

A report using this methodology to gauge covid vaccine effectiveness in children was published in MMWR in December.

The methodology was also used in a 2021 study on covid vaccine effectiveness in clinics and hospitals published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Vaccine effectiveness estimates using the same methodology have also been published in other peer-reviewed journals, including JAMA Network Open, the Lancet and Pediatrics.

Freedom for me, but not for thee. And it is the height of arrogance for Bhattacharya to think that he, along with a plucky few iconclasts, have discovered a fatal flaw with the test-negative study design*. And at the upcoming NAS symposium where a bunch of COVID (and public health) contrarians will be speaking, I hope someone asks them about this.

Of course, this is part of a larger agenda to reduce vaccination by calling into question the efficacy of the vaccines, with the idea being that vaccines are supposedly harmful, and they only protect at high risk populations. It’s just pseudoscientific bullshit all the way down.

*In a test-negative design study, the efficacy of the vaccine is evaluated by examining a pool of people with symptoms, and then determining if they actually have the disease (e.g., they might just have a bad respiratory infection that is not due to COVID). Then the vaccination rates between those with COVID and those without are compared. What vaccine denialists typically argue is that, if healthy people were recruited and followed, as was done initially for the COVID vaccines, there would be little effect, as healthy übermenschen don’t need no stinkin’ vaccine, while the genetic underclass does because healthy people gain very little from vaccination (even though with COVID vaccines, that was not the case). What this sort of requirement would do is make most vaccines that need to be updated annually nearly impossible to test in time. Because they are fucking evil people.

Links 4/22/26

Links for you. Science:

U.S. Forest Service unveils extensive closures of research facilities
Slasher sequel: Trump again proposes major cuts to U.S. science spending
First Photos From NASA Moon Flyby Show Setting Earth and Eclipse
Amid rising vaccine hesitancy, more parents reject vitamin K shots
Scientists reveal the potential of a tiny soil bacterium to beat the Haber-Bosch process
How the world’s largest wildlife crossing became the target of right-wing hate
Activation of l-histidine biosynthesis as a new antibiotic strategy against Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Other:

Trump Surrenders to Iran
D.C.’s new rules are pushing streateries off the street
I tested three Windows laptops in the MacBook Neo’s price range — there’s no contest
Whoops, The Tech Press Mythologized Another Unethical Asshole
My Quest to Solve Bitcoin’s Great Mystery
We Have 2 Weeks to Stop Trump From Committing New Atrocities
President of Wisconsin’s largest mosque detained by US immigration agents
Army survivors of deadly attack in Kuwait dispute Pentagon’s account, say unit “was unprepared” to defend itself
The Era Of The Mad King
RFK Jr. Will Take on Joe Rogan for Podcaster Supremacy (if he has time to do this, then he’s not working hard enough as HHS Secretary)
Trump is underwater in 135 GOP House and Senate seats. New local polling estimates show Trump is unpopular even in deep red districts, as calls for war powers reform and impeachment swirl in DC
Orban’s Fate Is a Warning Not to Get Too Close to Trump
Where Does a Dog Belong?
On Impeachment
Confidently Asserted
Free Press Dipshit Humiliates Herself In Public Again
How Dare You Vote Against The Troops
Unless you’re a billionaire, Trump just raised your taxes
White House Secures Foreign Steel for Ballroom Project
Public Health Needs to Get Off the Laptop and Into the Streets
EFF is Leaving X
MAGA Influencers Are Salivating Over Jailing Each Other
The War Is Bad. The Cease-Fire Doesn’t Exist. The Future Is Awful.
RFK Jr., Creature of the Tanning Salon, Throws the Industry a Bone
Vance, Rubio, and Wiles: Iran War? What Iran War? Don’t Look at Me! That lengthy New York Times ticktock about the run-up to the war was interesting—but it also just gave the above troika a chance to walk away from a responsibility they totally share.
Trump admin makes sweeping request for medical records of federal workers
Teachers would be paid a minimum salary of $70,000 in Massachusetts if bill becomes law
The Beclowning of the Madman Theory: The tentative cease fire negotiated earlier this week is not –repeat, not — an example of the Madman Theory at work.
Turning Point gets its ass handed to it in the SRP elections. Turning Point invested heavily in a pro-industry slate of candidates for the massive utility, and mostly lost.
Idaho Banned Pride Flags. Boise ‘Complied.’

From the UAE

Under the directives of the President of the UAE, we launch a new government model.

Within two years, 50% of government sectors, services, and operations will run on Agentic AI, making the UAE the first government globally to operate at this scale through autonomous systems.

AI is no longer a tool. It analyses, decides, executes, and improves in real time. It will become our executive partner to enhance services, accelerate decisions, and raise efficiency.

This transformation has a clear timeline. Two years. Performance across government will be measured by speed of adoption, quality of implementation, and mastery of AI in redesigning government work.

We are investing in our people. Every federal employee will be trained to master AI, building one of the world’s strongest capabilities in AI-driven government.

Implementation will be overseen by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, with a dedicated taskforce chaired by Mohammad Al Gergawi driving execution.

The world is changing. Technology is accelerating. Our principle remains constant. People come first. Our goal is a government that is faster, more responsive, and more impactful.

Here is the link.  While there is typically a certain amount of PR in such pronouncements, I do not think this one is only PR.

The post From the UAE appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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SQLAlchemy 2 In Practice - Chapter 6: A Page Analytics Solution

This is the sixth chapter of my SQLAlchemy 2 in Practice book. If you'd like to support my work, I encourage you to buy this book, either directly from my store or on Amazon. Thank you!

The goal of this chapter is to use the concepts you have learned to build a web traffic analytics solution. This will serve as reinforcement of the techniques demonstrated in previous chapters as well as an example of a more complex and realistic database design.

Moral Economics, on the Passion Struck podcast

In the run up to the May publication date, I've been interviewed on a variety of podcasts about my book Moral Economics: From Prostitution to Organ Sales, What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work.  Here's one from the podcast Passion Struck: Nobel Laureate Alvin Roth: How Incentives Shape Your Life | EP 757

 

 #############

Earlier:

Wednesday, April 22, 2026   Moral Economics, on the Armchair Expert podcast

Below is a one minute bit excerpted from the Armchair Expert interview, on why it's easy to buy drugs, but hard to hire a hitman: 

The Difference Between Hitmen and Dealers

 

Life invisible

A solitary person photographing a mountain lake under a blue sky with scattered clouds in a rocky desert landscape.

In the Atacama Desert, scientists race to find novel cures for antibiotic-resistant infections, as mining interests encroach

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

No nature without fear

Black and white photo of a man with a bow and arrows sitting on a rocky outcrop overlooking a vast landscape.

Aldo Leopold saw this in the eyes of a dying wolf: when we no longer fear nature, we are on the road to its destruction

- by Shawn Simpson

Read on Aeon

Gracey Van Der Mark's sign is way too big

So I was driving home last night, when I pulled off the La Paz exit and was greeted by the above monstrosity.

It’s a sign.

A big sign.

A HUGE sign.

A REALLY HUGE sign.

An (cough) unambiguously illegal sign.

The candidate, Gracey Van Der Mark, is a QAnon sympathizer and right-wing conspiracy theorist who fought to ban books on the Huntington Beach City Council and was all in on the MAGA library plaque. When I say she’s an unstable nut, I’m not exaggerating. To put it in the clearest terms: She’s a pro-ICE raids Latina. [In other words, support Chris Kluwe—a good dude with a normal head]

She’s also working her ass off to have voters forget she’s three pennies short of a dime, and wants everyone to see her as a pet-loving, sunshine-embracing populist.

Hence, the sign.

Which, again, is illegal.

Why?

Multiple reasons.

First, in the city of Laguna Hills, there is a (fairly standard) Public Right-of-Ways law. Meaning, signs may not be placed in public rights-of-way (like medians or sidewalks) if they obstruct traffic visibility or create a safety hazard. Which this 100 percent does.

Second, the sign is gimantic. I measured it, and it’s 34-square feet—far too beefy for signs along highways or in larger commercial areas.

Third, signs must be placed in a way that does not block the "sight visibility triangle" at street intersections. This one does exactly that.

Worst of all, again, Gracey sucks. Like, sucks in profound ways.

So, thanks to Chat GPT, I’ve fixed the sign …

No charge, girl.

No charge.

April 22, 2026

Virginia voters yesterday agreed to a constitutional amendment that would temporarily redistrict the state if any other state redistricted for partisan reasons: that is, in retaliation for the partisan redistricting President Donald J. Trump launched in Texas in 2025 in an effort to retain control of the House of Representatives.

As Matt Cohen of Democracy Docket noted, Trump supporters immediately insisted the voting was rigged, probably through mail-in ballots. Trump himself took to social media to attack the election, repeating charges of rigging and then adding: “In addition to everything else, the language on the Referendum was purposefully unintelligible and deceptive. As everyone knows, I am an extraordinarily brilliant person, and even I had no idea what the hell they were talking about in the Referendum, and neither do they! Let’s see if the Courts will fix this travesty of ‘Justice.’”

In fact, Trump himself began this mid-decade partisan gerrymander race with his pressure on Texas to rejigger its maps to give Republicans more House seats. That prompted California to retaliate with its own temporary redistricting to offset the new Texas Republican-leaning seats. Other states followed suit. Republicans redistricted Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, in addition to Texas, and expect those mid-decade redistricts will net them nine more seats. Democrats think their redistricting of California, along with a court-ordered redistricting of Utah, will get them an additional six seats. They are hoping that the temporary redistricting of Virginia will give them four more seats.

State lawmakers in Florida will convene a special session next week to consider redistricting that state, as well, to benefit the Republicans.

Journalist Brian Tyler Cohen noted that the Republicans have full control of the federal government and could pass a law to ban partisan gerrymandering any time they want to, as Democrats have called for, but they refuse. “Republicans aren’t mad gerrymandering exists,” Cohen notes; “they’re mad that they’re not the only ones using it.”

The Republican National Committee, now controlled by Trump, immediately sued over the Virginia election, and a Virginia judge ruled that both the constitutional amendment and the referendum voters approved were invalid. He said that “any and all votes for or against the proposed constitutional amendment in the April 21, 2026 special election are ineffective,” and prevented officials from certifying the results.

But, as Yunior Rivas of Democracy Docket wrote, Virginia attorney general Jay Jones is challenging the decision, saying: “Virginia voters have spoken, and an activist judge should not have the power over the People’s vote. We look forward to defending the outcome of last night’s election in court.”

Complaints about the Democratic push for a partisan gerrymander in Virginia have exposed a tendency to excuse Republican machinations to control politics while jumping on Democrats for similar behavior.

In August 2025, when Texas Republicans began this fight by redistricting their state after a brutal contest that drove Democratic legislators to leave the state and take refuge in Illinois and Massachusetts to deny Republicans enough legislators to pass a redistricting law, the Washington Post Editorial Board wrote: “What’s happening in the Lone Star State is not a threat to democracy.” “Even if Texas’s move triggers an arms race, the trend will not put American democracy on life support,” it said, dismissing the concerns of those fighting the Republicans’ attempt to game the 2026 elections.

But with last night’s Democratic partisan gerrymander—one that, unlike the Texas gerrymander, went before the people for a vote—the Editorial Board changed its tune. It called this redistricting plan “a power grab by Democrats.” “They’re right that the [Republicans] started this fight by trying to pick up five House seats in Texas through gerrymandering, but they can spare us the false sanctimony about democratic norms going forward,” board members wrote.

Their argument appears to be that the Democrats stand a good chance of winning the midterms even if the Republicans have gamed the system, so the Democrats should not push back. “The news will embolden Republicans in Florida to forge ahead with their own gerrymandering…, continuing the race to the bottom,” they write, seeming to excuse the behavior of Republicans by blaming Democrats for it.

This pattern—expecting Republicans to behave wildly and cheat to grab power while expecting Democrats to behave according to the rules of normal times—has been going on now for years, and it is a dynamic that reflects the political patterns of the years before the Civil War. Then, Americans expected southern Democrats to bully and bluster and rig the system while northerners tried to jolly them into honoring the laws.

In the 1850s, southerners championed their region as the one that had correctly developed the society envisioned by the Founders. In the South a few very wealthy men controlled government and society, enslaving their neighbors. This system, its apologists asserted, was the highest form of human civilization. They opposed any attempt to restrict its spread. The South was superior to the North, enslavers insisted; it alone was patriotic, honored the Constitution, and understood economic growth. In the interests of union, northerners repeatedly ceded ground to enslavers and left their claim to superiority unchallenged.

Then, on May 22, 1856, Representative Preston Brooks of South Carolina beat Senator Charles Sumner of Massachusetts nearly to death on the Senate floor shortly after a speech in which Sumner had called out those who were forcing enslavement on Kansas and insulted a relative of Brooks. Southern lawmakers and newspapermen alike cheered the violence against an elected representative in the Capitol. Lawmakers refused to expel Brooks, and one newspaper editor wrote: “We trust other gentlemen will follow the example of Mr. Brooks…. If need be, let us have a caning or cowhiding every day.”

But the attack on Sumner was a bridge too far for his colleague, Massachusetts representative Anson Burlingame. On June 21, he stood up in Congress to call out as inferior Brooks and the system of enslavement he defended. Burlingame was sick and tired of buying peace by letting southerners abuse the North. Enough, he said, was enough.

Enslavement was not a superior system, he said; it had dragged the nation backward. Slavery kept workers ignorant and godless while the northern system of freedom lifted workers up with schools and churches. Slavery feared innovation; freedom encouraged workers to try new ideas. Slavery kept the South mired in the past; freedom welcomed the modern world and pushed Americans into a new, thriving economy. And finally, when Sumner had spoken up against the tyranny of slavery, a southerner had clubbed him almost to death on the floor of the Senate.

Was ignorance, economic stagnation, and violence the true American system? For his part, Burlingame preferred to throw his lot with the North, which he said was superior to the South in its morality, education, economy, loyalty to the government, and fidelity to the Constitution. Northerners were willing to defend their system, he said, with guns if necessary.

Burlingame’s “Defense of Massachusetts” speech marked the first time a prominent northerner had offered to fight to defend the northern way of life. Previously, southerners had been the ones threatening war and demanding concessions from the North to preserve the peace. Burlingame explained that he was willing to accept a battle because what was at stake was the future of the nation.

Forgotten now, Burlingame’s speech was once widely considered one of the most important speeches in American history. It marked the moment when northerners shocked southern leaders by calling them out for trying to destroy democracy. Northerners rallied to Burlingame’s call, and to the new Republican Party he was helping to build, because he had shown it would stand up for their rights.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) echoed Burlingame today when a reporter asked what she thought of complaints about the Virginia vote. “Oh, wah, wah, wah,” she laughed. “Listen. Democrats have attempted and asked Republicans for 10 years to ban partisan gerrymandering. And for 10 years, Republicans have said no. Republicans have fought for partisan gerrymanders across the United States of America, and these are the rules that they have set….

“What they’re just mad at is that they have been accustomed to a Democratic Party that rolls over, doesn’t fight, and takes everything sitting down. And what they’re mad at right now is that we are here in a new day. And we have been asking the Democratic Party to stand up and fight, and now they did, and now the Republican Party doesn’t like the fact that they are fighting against someone who actually will stand up for the American people.

“So if Republicans decide that they would like to revisit a ban on…partisan gerrymandering, I welcome them. We have the bill right here to end this all today. But they don’t want to because they like pursuing and continuing to enact an unfair electoral landscape. And so we have an obligation to defend ourselves.”

Notes:

https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Use_of_Legislative_Congressional_Redistricting_Map_Amendment_(April_2026)

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/election-deniers-are-already-claiming-virginias-redistricting-vote-was-rigged/

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5834173-florida-redistricting-session-delay/

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5842969-desantis-florida-republican-redistricting-risk/

https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-04-22-Final-judgment.pdf

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/voters-approve-virginia-redistricting-referendum-moving-battle-to-court/

https://apnews.com/article/virginia-redistricting-election-congress-trump-78e0e68100119011b1b439634f6b6fa1

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/virginia-court-blocks-voter-approved-redistricting-appeal-coming/

https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/03/politics/texas-democrats-redistricting

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/08/20/texas-gerrymander-redistricting-midterms-backfire/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/22/virginia-gerrymandering-referendum-passes-it-will-take-toll/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/a-state-by-state-look-at-the-narrowing-redistricting-battle-for-the-u-s-house

https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/caning-charles-sumner

https://archive.org/details/defenceofmassach00burl/page/n7/mode/2up

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A New Low

There Are Corrections, and There Are Corrections

The New York Times (gift link):

A correction was made on April 21, 2026: Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this article misstated which day the New York Mets suffered their 11th straight loss. It was on Sunday, not Monday. Even the Mets cannot lose on an off day.

This is to New York Times corrections what “Headless Body in Topless Bar” was to New York Post headlines — perfection.

 ★ 

Ben Thompson on Tim Cook’s Legacy

Ben Thompson at Stratechery, “Tim Cook’s Impeccable Timing”:

Cook was, without question, an operational genius. Moreover, this was clearly the case even before he scaled the iPhone to unimaginable scale. When Cook joined Apple in 1998 the company’s operations — centered on Apple’s own factories and warehouses — were a massive drag on the company; Cook methodically shut them down and shifted Apple’s manufacturing base to China, creating a just-in-time supply chain that year-after-year coordinated a worldwide network of suppliers to deliver Apple’s ever-expanding product line to customers’ doorsteps and a fleet of beautiful and brand-expanding stores. There was not, under Cook’s leadership, a single significant product issue or recall.

That last sentence is something that Cook won’t get enough credit for. A major product defect or recall is just inherently more memorable than the lack of major defects or recalls. Compare and contrast to Samsung: 2016’s Note 7 was recalled for battery combustion; six other Samsung models caught fire in 2016 too; the early Galaxy Fold phones were an outright debacle. Nothing like that ever happened under Cook.

Cook also oversaw the introduction of major new products, most notably AirPods and Apple Watch; the “Wearables, Home, and Accessories” category delivered $35.4 billion in revenue last year, which would rank 128 on the Fortune 500. Still, both products are derivative of the iPhone; Cook’s signature 0 to 1 product, the Apple Vision Pro, is more of a 0.5.

I don’t think it’s worth discounting AirPods or Apple Watch as “derivative” of the iPhone. Yes, Apple Watch requires a paired iPhone, and while AirPods connect with Macs, iPads, and Apple TVs, they are of course primarily used paired with iPhones. But you can just as easily say that the iPhone was derivative of the iPod. And the iPod was derivative of iTunes. And iTunes was derivative of the Mac. And the iPhone was derivative of the Mac too, insofar as iOS and UIKit truly are stripped-down versions of MacOS and AppKit. Better, in my opinion, to simply give Tim Cook credit for overseeing the creation of two massively popular and successful new device platforms.

For Apple’s 2011 fiscal year, which covers the company’s last year under Steve Jobs, the company had $108 billion in total revenue. Inflation-adjusted that’s ~$159 billion in 2026 dollars. 2011 Mac revenue was $22 billion ($32 billion inflation-adjusted) and iPad revenue was $20 billion ($29 billion inflation-adjusted). iPhone revenue was $47 billion ($69 billion inflation-adjusted). So compared to where revenue was when Cook took the helm, the mostly-all-new-under-Cook Wearables category today is bigger than the Mac or iPad were under Jobs, and a very credible half the size of the iPhone.

Cook’s more momentous contribution to Apple’s top line was the elevation of Services. [...]

Last year Apple Services generated 26% of Apple’s revenue and 41% of the company’s profit; more importantly, Services continues to grow year-over-year, even as iPhone growth has slowed from the go-go years.

There was a legitimate widespread concern in the early years of the Cook era that the downside of the iPhone’s unprecedented success was that Apple’s financials were dangerously reliant on that single product. Even today the iPhone generates between 50–60 percent of Apple’s revenue each quarter, but it is quite obviously the growth of Services and Wearables that makes Apple’s overall revenue by product line look as balanced as it does. From Jason Snell’s report on Apple’s most recent quarter (the best in Apple’s entire history):

Apple Q2 2026 revenue percentage by product line.

There’s a totally reasonable concern that the growth of Services will pervert Apple’s priorities away from hardware products. I think that’s why naming John Ternus, the head of hardware, as the new CEO is an important statement in and of itself regarding where Tim Cook sees Apple’s North Star: hardware products.

I believe that Cook’s focus on Services over the last decade was in no way about shifting the focus of the company away from its roots. Nor was it about growth for the sake of growth. I think it was about bringing balance to the balance sheet, to protect the company’s core mission of creating devices.

 ★ 

Is each American generation doing better?

We construct a posttax, posttransfer income measure from 1963 to 2023 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement that allows us to consistently compare the economic well-being of five generations of Americans at ages 36–40. We find that Millennials had a real median household income that was 20% higher than that of the previous generation, a slowdown from the growth rate of the Silent Generation (36%) and Baby Boomers (26%), but similar to that of Generation X (16%). The slowdown for younger generations largely resulted from stalled growth in work hours among women. Progress for Millennials younger than 30 has also remained robust, though largely due to greater reliance on their parents. Additionally, lifetime income gains for younger generations far outweigh their higher educational costs.

That is from Kevin Corrinth and Jeff Larrimore in Demography.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post Is each American generation doing better? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Qwen3.6-27B: Flagship-Level Coding in a 27B Dense Model

Qwen3.6-27B: Flagship-Level Coding in a 27B Dense Model

Big claims from Qwen about their latest open weight model:

Qwen3.6-27B delivers flagship-level agentic coding performance, surpassing the previous-generation open-source flagship Qwen3.5-397B-A17B (397B total / 17B active MoE) across all major coding benchmarks.

On Hugging Face Qwen3.5-397B-A17B is 807GB, this new Qwen3.6-27B is 55.6GB.

I tried it out with the 16.8GB Unsloth Qwen3.6-27B-GGUF:Q4_K_M quantized version and llama-server using this recipe by benob on Hacker News, after first installing llama-server using brew install llama.cpp:

llama-server \
    -hf unsloth/Qwen3.6-27B-GGUF:Q4_K_M \
    --no-mmproj \
    --fit on \
    -np 1 \
    -c 65536 \
    --cache-ram 4096 -ctxcp 2 \
    --jinja \
    --temp 0.6 \
    --top-p 0.95 \
    --top-k 20 \
    --min-p 0.0 \
    --presence-penalty 0.0 \
    --repeat-penalty 1.0 \
    --reasoning on \
    --chat-template-kwargs '{"preserve_thinking": true}'

On first run that saved the ~17GB model to ~/.cache/huggingface/hub/models--unsloth--Qwen3.6-27B-GGUF.

Here's the transcript for "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle". This is an outstanding result for a 16.8GB local model:

Bicycle has spokes, a chain and a correctly shaped frame. Handlebars are a bit detached. Pelican has wing on the handlebars, weirdly bent legs that touch the pedals and a good bill. Background details are pleasant - semi-transparent clouds, birds, grass, sun.

Performance numbers reported by llama-server:

  • Reading: 20 tokens, 0.4s, 54.32 tokens/s
  • Generation: 4,444 tokens, 2min 53s, 25.57 tokens/s

For good measure, here's Generate an SVG of a NORTH VIRGINIA OPOSSUM ON AN E-SCOOTER (run previously with GLM-5.1):

Digital illustration in a neon Tron-inspired style of a grey cat-like creature wearing cyan visor goggles riding a glowing cyan futuristic motorcycle through a dark cityscape at night, with its long tail trailing behind, silhouetted buildings with yellow-lit windows in the background, and a glowing magenta moon on the right.

That one took 6,575 tokens, 4min 25s, 24.74 t/s.

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, generative-ai, local-llms, llms, qwen, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llama-cpp, llm-release, ai-in-china

Kevin Warsh is Trump's Sock Puppet

Some quick thoughts about yesterday’s hearing.

Transcript

Kevin Warsh, the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, is Donald Trump’s sock puppet. But we knew that. The question during yesterday’s confirmation hearing was whether he was sufficiently brave, sufficiently good at acting to pretend that he was more than that. And the answer is no.

Hi, Paul Krugman here with a Wednesday update. I didn’t watch or write about the Warsh hearing because it seemed there wasn’t really that much at stake. He’s going to be confirmed pretty much regardless and there’s a whole lot else going on in the world. But I thought I should weigh in a bit on what we actually learned from the hearing.

Now about Warsh, he is smart. He is very good at saying things that sound thoughtful and impressive, but he is also, and it’s really very clear, a partisan hack. He’s for tight money when a Democrat is in the White House and for easy money when there’s a Republican. He has managed to claim that he was part of the great economic rescue that took place after the global financial crisis. But at the time, although he was on the Federal Reserve Board, he basically trashed his colleagues for trying to do their job.

And he has made a lot of criticisms over the years, but they’re always very selective.

Often when he makes a statement, you wonder, what exactly did he say? Because there tends to be lots of complex verbiage that sounds sophisticated, but when you try and distill it down to what it was all about, it’s very hard to figure out, except that, again, it’s always tight money if there’s a Democrat in the White House, easy money if there’s a Republican.

Recently, Employ America, which is a group that I follow, wrote about Warsh. They aren’t very partisan. They do mostly inflation analyses and inflation nowcasting, trying to predict what the next number will be. But they had a scathing survey of his positions over the years, which says that he is a partisan who has chosen to align conveniently with the current president, that he is someone who abandons his principles “for whatever might suit his personal and partisan interests.” That’s not very nice, but it seems to be quite accurate.

So there was a hearing, and everybody knows pretty much who he is.There are people, sort of centrist Democrats, who claim to find some virtues in him. But I think that’s all positioning. I think everybody understands what we’re getting with Warsh. The question in the hearing was, could he put on an act? Because he is usually a pretty slick customer. He’s not someone who simply rants and raves and spouts MAGA propaganda.

And he was asked a a question which isn’t about monetary policy, but is very much exactly a kind of litmus test for, not really for who he is, but what he’s willing to say, at least in the interest of appearing to be not a complete sock puppet. He was asked who won the 2020 election. which is not a question that is remotely in doubt. This is not something about which reasonable people can disagree. There is nothing to the claims of a rigged election except the fact that Donald Trump can’t admit that he lost that election.

And Warsh evaded. He said, well, this body certified that election, which is not the question. The question is basically, are you willing to challenge Trump on a completely obvious grotesque lie? And it would have been in Warsh’s interest, you would think, to say, well, no, I believe that Joe Biden won that election. But to do that would be to show some independence, even not in action, but some independence, at least rhetorically, from Donald Trump. And he wouldn’t do that.

He was also asked about the spurious prosecution of Lisa Cook, asked about the spurious charges being brought about Jay Powell and refused to take a stand in support of people who will be his colleagues once he gets to the Fed.

So what we got was not a test of how he will behave, not a test really of his policy views. I mean, there were no interesting policy arguments going on here. There are some discussions we could have about shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet and all of these things, where I do think that Warsh’s expressed views are quite wrong. But that’s kind of not what was on trial here.

What was on trial was, can he at least pretend to be not a total hack? And the answer is no. He’s afraid to even show a little bit of verbal independence without substance when it comes to Donald Trump, which is bad.

It should be utterly disqualifying for the position because being the Fed chair is important. It requires a lot of independent judgment and requires a lot of credibility because the Fed is mostly needed in moments of crisis. And in those moments of crisis, people need to believe, markets need to believe, but the general public needs to believe that we’re talking about people who are serious experts and seriously have the interests of the nation at stake rather than their partisan political views.

He failed that test with flying colors. And he will be confirmed anyway.

Bad Vibes and Broken Promises

Cut in half, you say?

Americans hate, I mean really hate, the Trump II economy. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll puts Donald Trump’s net approval on the economy at -33 points, significantly worse than Joe Biden’s nadir in the aftermath of the 2021-22 supply-chain-driven inflation spike. A Verasight poll reported by G. Elliott Morris puts Trump’s net approval on prices and inflation at -46 points, which is just astonishingly bad. The venerable University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment has hit a record low. And the widely cited Conference Board index is well below its 2022-23 levels.

Yet standard measures of the economic situation don’t look that bad. Inflation is running at around 3 percent – above the Fed’s target rate of 2 percent, but relatively low by historical standards. Unemployment is a bit above 4 percent, also relatively low. These are, if anything, good numbers in historical perspective. So why are Americans so angry?

In a post last week I began a discussion of this phenomenon and pointed to new analyses by Jared Bernstein, a serious macroeconomics guru, and G. Elliott Morris, who is my go-to guy on polling. Both argue, with extensive statistical backing, that Americans are upset about the level of prices. That is, they’re not satisfied with inflation that’s down to 2 or 3 percent. Having been accustomed over the past several decades to low inflation, Americans want to see prices fall to the levels they were at before the supply chain shock. And because that isn’t happening (and basically can’t happen, but the public doesn’t know that), Americans are angry.

I have considerable sympathy for Berstein and Morris’s view and great respect for their economic and statistical work. And I believe they offer a plausible explanation for why Americans were angry with the Biden administration. Yet I believe that the price-level story is inadequate to explain the much higher levels of anger and pessimism that are present now under Trump II. To make sense of where we are, I’d argue, we need to take account of people’s anger over not just the price level but also what they perceive as Trump’s broken promises.

Let me explain why.

There are, as I noted last week, two big empirical problems with the story that Americans just want their old prices back.

First is the sharp decline in consumer sentiment under Trump II, and his catastrophic polling on economic issues. This decline is hard to understand as a reaction to the fact that consumer prices haven’t fallen back to where they were in 2020. Indeed, if nostalgia for past prices was the whole story, we would expect consumer sentiment to gradually improve as the “good old days” of low prices recede further into memory. But we don’t see that happening. In fact, Americans are getting angrier and more depressed about the economy over time.

So what explains the public’s anger? My hypothesis is that it has a lot to do with the fabulist promises Trump made during the 2024 campaign, when he asserted that grocery prices would come down “on Day One” and that he would cut energy prices in half.

Did people actually believe those promises? Yes, many did – Trump voters in particular. Expected inflation among self-identified Republicans dropped sharply to zero after Trump won the election:

Source

Notably, expected inflation among self-identified Democrats went up substantially after Trump’s victory, which was closer to accurate.

It wasn’t just partisan affiliation. Expectations of inflation plunged after the election among voters without higher education, which suggests that many low-education voters believed Trump’s promise to reduce prices, as shown by the blue line below:

As you can also see, these voters’ expectations of inflation soared a few months into Trump’s term.

Morris has shown that low-information voters — defined as voters who don’t know which party controls Congress, but that is surely closely correlated with low education levels — pushed Trump over the top in 2024, but have turned hard against him since then. This is consistent with the view that a significant number of Americans believed Trump’s impossible promises about the economic miracles he would conjure into being, but now realize that they were lied to. And, in my view, this explains why Americans are so intensely angry and pessimistic about the economy now — significantly more so than under Biden.

It also doesn’t help that Trump can’t bring himself to admit that inflation was fairly low before he took office — he’s claiming that it was running at 5 percent and he brought it way down.

True, under Biden sentiment was also remarkably bad, although not as bad as it is now. Many economists, myself included, have argued, like Bernstein and Morris, that Americans were angry about the higher level of prices even after the rate of inflation came down. But as I noted last week, prices rose by almost exactly the same amount under Biden and during Ronald Reagan’s first term:

A graph with a line going up

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Why, then, was Reagan able to triumphantly proclaim Morning in America while Biden was vilified? A large part of the answer, surely, is that Reagan took office after years of high inflation — inflation that the public expected to continue, while Biden took office after years of low inflation:

So higher prices under Reagan didn’t come as a surprise. In fact, prices rose less than most Americans expected before he took office. The rise in prices on Biden’s watch, by contrast, came as a shock after decades of low inflation. Thus I think that, adjusting for expectations, Bernstein and Morris’s arguments are a good fit for explaining the Biden years.

Let me hasten to say that there isn’t any moral equivalence between Biden and Trump. Biden and his team did not deliberately mislead American voters. They genuinely didn’t expect the 2021-2022 bout of high inflation, caused by snarled supply chains and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. When Biden promised a “summer of joy” thanks to the new Covid vaccines, he and his staff truly believed that would happen. Contrast this with Trump’s promises of lower prices, which were cynical, dishonest bombast when he was down in the polls against Harris. He never had any plan, or even a concept of a plan, to bring prices down.

Many Americans were angered by what they perceived to be economic incompetence on the part of Biden. That is, they believed that he should have found a way to stop inflation from rising.

But Trump actively misled Americans in order to win the 2024 election. And to add insult to injury, a majority of Americans now believe that the economy under Biden was better than the current economy.

Thus I believe that what we are witnessing now is heightened rage about a president who lied to win office, and who, once in office, made the economy worse than it was.

And it’s reasonable to believe that Americans will only become angrier as Trump’s lies on other fronts, and the damage that they have done, become more and more apparent.

MUSICAL CODA

I feel BAD

A painter's painter

[Roughly half of my posts (including this one) are entirely free. If you wish to have full access to all posts, be aware that the subscription fee rises from $30/year to $40/year at the end of April.]

I am occasionally asked for a recommendation of what book to read to learn about art. My art education began by reading Malraux’s The Voices of Silence, and I also took a few art history courses. But the single best place to learn about the art of painting is by visiting the world’s best art museum, which is located in Madrid. I visited the Prado in the 1980s, the 1990s, the 2000s, and again last fall—probably for the last time. In this post I’ll try to explain what makes the Prado so special.

The Pursuit of Happiness is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

It’s not easy to explain the essence of any art form in words, whether it be painting, music or poetry. I’ve been working on this post for 6 months but cannot find a way to express in words what I see with my eyes. Therefore, I’ll mostly try to point you in the right direction and also use some film analogies that might make things easier to see.

Anyone with a PhD can be called a “doctor”, but (at least in America) the term ‘doctor’ is generally reserved for physicians and unusually vain people. Similarly, while Mozart, Dante and Flaubert are all “artists”, they are generally referred to as a composer, poet and novelist. In common everyday use the term ‘artist’ implies a painter or sculptor. An art museum is a museum of the visual arts.

Back in the 1970s, I took an intro course in art history at the University of Wisconsin. The course mostly ignored sculpture and architecture. It ignored the art of Africa, the Middle East, India, China and Japan. There was almost no coverage of women artists. This post will be even more reactionary. I plan to mostly ignore modern art, as well as genres such as fresco, watercolor, drawing, prints, photography, etc. I’ll focus on pre-modern oil paintings by European men, which was also the major focus on my art history course. Sounds like a bunch of boring old masters? Not for me.

In my view, the Prado has the most impressive collection of oil paintings to be found anywhere in the world. If it were destroyed by an asteroid, the loss would be greater than for any other museum on Earth—including even larger art museums in places like Paris and New York. This is mostly because it has by far the most important collections of some of the key figures in the development of oil painting, including masters of the Venetian Renaissance (Titian), the Mannerist period (El Greco), the early Baroque (Rubens), the later Baroque (Velázquez), and the Rococo/Neoclassical/Romantic periods (Goya).

Of course, there are many different types of art. Even within the art of painting, there are many different approaches. Some painters (such as Picasso) excel at drawing. Some excel at painting light (Vermeer.) Some excel at color (Matisse.) Some excel at brushwork.

Some of the greatest Renaissance paintings were done on fresco, including The Last Supper and The Creation of Adam. These paintings are known for their composition, not the quality of the brushstrokes. But during the 1500s, artists mostly switched from fresco to oil painting, which allows for far more subtle and complex effects, while slightly downgrading the importance of skill at drawing.

Between 1500 and 1660, a line of painters from Titian to Rubens to Velasquez perfected the art of oil painting from a technical perspective. Two other Spanish painters (El Greco and (later) Goya), produced some of art’s most startling images. The best collections of these five artists are in the Prado. In the case of Velázquez and Goya, it is almost impossible to fully appreciate their greatness without visiting Madrid.

You can view the history of art as a series of projects. Think of Japanese woodblock prints, Chinese ink landscapes, Persian miniatures, African tribal masks, Greek and Roman sculptures. I view the evolution of European oil painting from 1500 to 1660 as the most important project in the history of the visual arts, the project that produced the greatest works. And the best place to see that project is in the Prado.

Reproductions of all the great paintings are now widely available online. But in many cases the images are only a pale imitation of the original. Sort of like hearing a Wagner opera on a tiny transistor radio. Here’s a Wikipedia image of a relatively minor Prado painting by Titian, entitled Religion, Saved by Spain:

(BTW, try not to read this post on your phone, it works better on a larger screen.)

The Wikipedia doesn’t really do justice to the glorious color in Titian’s original. The Prado’s own website has a far superior reproduction, and users can zoom in on specific parts of the image:

Notice the subtle use of color that gets washed out in the Wikipedia image.

I certainly do not wish to argue that this relatively little-known Titian is a “better” painting than The Last Supper or The Creation of Adam in any overall sense. But it is far better at the specific thing that oil painting does best. To explain why, let’s take a brief digression into the art of filmmaking, an area where many readers may have more familiarity.

In a recent post I mentioned that Alfred Hitchcock came in number one in a ranking of the world’s greatest movie directors. But why is that? I imagine that lots of verbally oriented intellectuals might prefer the work of directors such as Bergman (#3), Scorsese (#6) or Kurosawa (#12), whose films seem to have greater psychological depth. Hitchcock’s reputation does not come from his screenplays, the performances of his actors, or even the excellent soundtracks, rather it is the visual style of his films that attracts cinéastes.

The intellectual world is mostly run by people with high verbal intelligence, and hence Hitchcock’s films were not taken seriously until the late 1950s. Critics saw them as light entertainment, which is why Hitchcock never won an Oscar for best director. (Not even nominated for Vertigo!) Not surprisingly, it was people who spoke an entirely different language—French intellectuals—who first noticed his greatness as a director. People tend to listen to films in their own language and watch films in a foreign language. When Hitchcock’s films were re-evaluated in the late 1950s, it was the way he used the camera that led people like Truffaut, Godard and Chabrol to declare him a supreme auteur.

I don’t believe that paintings by Rubens have anywhere near the psychological depth of those by some of his near contemporaries, including Caravaggio and Rembrandt. Rather it was his unsurpassed brushwork that led him to be regarded as the world’s best painter during his lifetime. This is why you cannot look at a small photo reproduction of these Baroque masterpieces and get any sense of what makes them special. When looking at a reproduction you are generally focusing on the composition, or perhaps the (occasionally insipid) facial expression of some of the figures. Why is that Rubens picture so interesting?

In fairness, paintings by Titian and even more so by Velázquez often do have real psychological depth combined with superb technical skill, which is one reason why Velazquez is my favorite painter:

During the period of 1400 to 1660, Western oil painting was progressive, in the sense of progressing toward a goal. Then, for a period of roughly 200 years, painters saw no way to push things beyond the perfection achieved by Velázquez and instead experimented with a variety of new styles and subjects, including rococo, neoclassicism, romanticism. These styles mostly employed techniques developed by 1660.

In the mid-19th century, art history resumed, but this time on a completely different project—modern art. Manet went to Madrid and was blown away by what he saw—calling Velázquez the “greatest painter”. We think of modern art as being less “realistic”, but Manet started out by using Velázquez’s techniques in a realistic style. Then he began to flatten the space in his paintings, which is probably the most important feature of modern art (even more so than abstraction.)

Titian’s Danaë and the Shower of Gold and Velázquez’s Rokeby Venus are both great nudes, but the Titian looks more “old-fashioned”, while the Velázquez seems very fresh and modern. Manet’s Olympia (1863) seems even more modern, because we subconsciously associate modern art with a flatter picture plane.

[BTW, the greatest painters often produce works that seem sort of timeless, as if they could have been done yesterday. Think of Dürer’s Young Hare or Carel Fabritius’s Goldfinch. In the 1600s, Velázquez produced landscapes that look like 19th century art.

Manet started the second great project in Western painting, which led to Cézanne, Picasso, and eventually to abstraction. (Or perhaps the Japanese came first?) But abstraction is not the essence of modern art. Indeed, Picasso’s paintings were almost never completely abstract:

Guernica is technically an oil painting, but it doesn’t utilize the qualities that traditional oil painting is associated with, such as expressive brushstrokes. Rather it looks more like a large woodblock print, where everything seems close to the surface. Picasso is doing something entirely different from the great baroque painters—his genius was in drawing expressive lines.

People often argue that modern art was a reaction to the camera. Once photographic accuracy could be achieved by a machine, there was no point in continuing the tradition of realism. I disagree. All forms or art became more “difficult” in the late 1800s and early 1900s, not just painting. Poetry stopped rhyming. Music became atonal. Sculpture became more abstract. You had deconstruction in architecture. None of those genres were directly impacted by photography. Turner was already close to abstraction by 1834, before the camera had impacted society.

But there’s an even stronger argument against the invention of the camera leading to modern art. Many of the very greatest artists—including Titian, Velázquez, Goya and Rembrandt, adopted less “realistic” styles as they aged—a style less like photography. Contemporaries often attributed this to a loss of visual acuity with old age, but it is now clear than these great artists gradually discovered that they could achieve their most powerful expressive effects by using more vigorous brushstrokes, often called “thick impasto”.

A highly detailed photorealistic style was first developed as early as the 1400s. Here’s a detail from a Jan van Eyck painting from 1436:

In the Titian painting shown above, the painter is not trying to be more photorealistic than van Eyck; he’s trying to be more expressive. (Even more so in this late work.)

Because the Prado has a huge collection of works by Titian, Velázquez and Goya, you can examine the way their painting style moved away from realism as they got older and sought more powerful expressive techniques. Studying the progression of their careers toward looser brushstrokes is a good starting point for learning about the art of oil painting. In the Prado, Goya’s so-called “black paintings” provide a good example of his late style. Contrast an early Goya in the elegant rococo style:

With a much later example of romanticism, The Executions of May 3, 1808:

Goya didn’t forget how to paint pretty pictures; he was trying to do something entirely different.

In this post, I’m not so much trying to argue that the Prado has the “best” painters, rather that they have the collection that best illustrates the most important project in the history of oil painting.

If we return to the cinema analogy, I have no problem with people that prefer Bergman, Scorsese or Kurosawa to Hitchcock. But if you wish to understand what makes cinema unique as an art form, what distinguishes it from other genres such as theatre, you need to study the visual style of directors like Hitchcock, Tarkovsky, Ozu and Kubrick. It would make no sense to do a theatre production of Vertigo, Stalker, Tokyo Story, or 2001—they are visually oriented films. Similarly, I have no problem with people that prefer Caravaggio, Rembrandt and Vermeer to Rubens—indeed I share this preference. But studying the development of oil painting from Titian to Rubens to Velázquez is the best way to educate yourself about what oil painting can do better than any other genre of art.

PS. When I lived in Boston, the Phoenix published a poll of art experts:

The Goya, the Rogier van der Weyden and the Velázquez are all in the Prado, and two others are not far away. By this measure, Madrid and nearby Toledo have nearly 1/4th of the world’s greatest paintings. (America has four of them.)

If you cannot get to Madrid, then here’s my suggestion. Get a 77-inch OLED TV set. After dark, go to the Prado website and put “Las Meninas” into their search box. The Prado’s reproduction is excellent. Even so, the image will be much smaller than the original (which is roughly 300cm or 10 feet square.) First look at the painting in full size and then use the zoom feature to put the entire bottom half of the painting on your widescreen TV. It’s still less than 2/3rds actual size, but big enough to get a good look at one of the most stunning images ever created by man.

Velázquez was a painter’s painter. Artists like Luca Giordano and Thomas Lawrence regarded Las Meninas as the supreme achievement in the art of painting. Picasso did no less than 58 interpretations of the painting. In The Order of Things, Foucault spends an entire chapter examining this painting. Here’s Wikipedia:

For Foucault, Las Meninas illustrates the first signs of a new episteme, or way of thinking. It represents a midpoint between what he sees as the two "great discontinuities" in European thought, the classical and the modern

PPS. The Prado also has the famous Garden of Earthly Delights by Hieronymus Bosch (the Dutch painter, not the LA detective.)

PPPS. The final item in the Phoenix poll is Titian’s Rape of Europa, which is in Boston’s Gardner Museum. (Thank God the thieves had bad taste!) Rubens was so impressed by this painting that he produced a copy, which is in the Prado. And Velázquez was so impressed by Titian’s painting that he included a tapestry depicting this image in the background of his painting entitled The Spinners, another masterpiece in the Prado.

PPPPS. The Prado contains many masterpieces beyond the five artists I’ve discussed here. This mannerist gem is regarded as a minor painting by Parmigianino:

And here is an acknowledged masterpiece is by Fra Angelico:

My camera cannot even come close to capturing the actual color.

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Those old factory sector jobs

As AI sweeps into white-collar workplaces, old-timey hands-on jobs are getting a new look—and some of those professions even have shortages.

Consider tailors. Sewing is a vanishing skill, much like lacemaking and watchmaking, putting tailors in short supply when big retailers like Nordstrom and Men’s Wearhouse, as well as fashion designers and local dry cleaners, say they need more of them.

The job, which can take years to master, can be a tough sell to younger generations more accustomed to instant gratification. But apprenticeships that offer pay to learn on the job and new training programs are helping entice more people…

For the first semester of its program, which concluded in December, FIT received more than 190 applications for 15 spots. The nine-week course requires prior sewing experience. Nordstrom hired seven students from the inaugural class.

“It’s increasingly becoming more challenging to find people to fill these alterations jobs,” said Marco Esquivel, the director of alterations and aftercare services at Nordstrom, which employs about 1,500 tailors. Similar to other high-end retailers, Nordstrom offers free basic tailoring for garments purchased at the department-store chain and charges a fee for those bought elsewhere.

Tailored Brands, which employs about 1,300 tailors at its Men’s Wearhouse, Jos. A. Bank and other chains, is updating its apprenticeship program to include more self-guided videos with the goal of moving people through the training faster.

Here is more from Suzanne Kapner at the WSJ.  Via LJ Fenkell.

The post Those old factory sector jobs appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Smoke Shrouds Northern Thailand

A satellite image shows gray smoke obscuring most of the landscape around Chiang Mai except for small areas where mountain ridges are visible.
The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this hazy view of the city and the surrounding region on April 22, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Chiang Mai, Thailand’s second-largest city, lies within a network of narrow valleys in the country’s northern highlands. Though the historic city is known for panoramic views of the surrounding mountains, clear skies have become less common. In recent decades, smoke has increasingly darkened the skies during the dry season, particularly in March and April.

A NASA satellite captured this smoky view of the city and the surrounding region on April 22, 2026, when haze partially obscured valleys and ridges typically visible under clearer conditions. Most of the smoke likely comes from small agricultural and forest fires lit to burn off crop debris or maintain forest ecosystems. In 2026, satellite sensors detected small numbers of fires throughout January, but fire detections became more numerous and widespread in February, March, and April. Fire activity typically peaks in March and fades by May as seasonal rains increase. 

Research indicates that smoke from biomass burning is one of the largest contributors to poor air quality in northern Thailand during the dry season. By one estimate, about 70 percent of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Chiang Mai in April comes from biomass burning. Smaller contributors to the region’s hazy skies include vehicles, power plants and industry, and charcoal burning for cooking and heating. Geography also plays a key role; the surrounding mountains block air flow and encourage temperature inversions that trap both local pollution and haze from the broader region in the valleys.

On the same day the satellite image was captured, air quality sensors on the ground recorded “unhealthy” and “very unhealthy” levels of PM2.5 air pollution throughout Chiang Mai and the region, according to data from the World Air Quality Index project. Prolonged exposure to high levels of air pollution can contribute to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and other health problems.

News reports suggest that the haze is affecting the tourism industry and has contributed to a decrease in the number of international travelers coming to Chiang Mai. After more than a month of persistent haze, the number of tourists arriving in the town of Pai, a popular destination for backpackers northwest of Chiang Mai, was down 90 percent, according to one local newspaper.

Unusually warm and dry conditions have gripped the region in recent weeks, according to meteorologists with the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC). On March 27, the group advised that there was a “high risk” of severe transboundary haze in the region and elevated its alert level to three, the highest on the scale. 

In late March, the group noted that dry conditions were forecast to persist over most parts of the Mekong sub-region, with prevailing winds expected to blow mostly from the south or southwest. “Under these conditions,” ASMC noted, “the hotspot and smoke haze situation could escalate further.”

NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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SpaceX launches 24 Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg SFB

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket launches from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base on April 22, 2026, on the Starlink 17-14 mission. Image: SpaceX

Update Apr. 22, 11:52 p.m. EDT (0352 UTC): SpaceX landed its booster on the droneship.

SpaceX launched its 40th Starlink mission of the year when its Falcon 9 rocket took off from Vandenberg Space Force Base Wednesday night.

The Starlink 17-14 mission will add another 24 broadband internet satellites to the company’s low Earth orbit constellation, which consists of more than 10,200 spacecraft.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East happened at 8:23:09 p.m. PDT (11:23:09 p.m. EDT / 0323:09 UTC). The rocket flew on a south-southwesterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number 1100. This was its fifth flight following the launches of NROL-105 along with three other batches of Starlink satellites.

A little more than eight minutes after liftoff, B1100 landed on the drone ship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You’. This was the 192nd booster landing on this vessel and the 602nd booster landing to date for SpaceX.

Wednesday 22 April 1663

Up betimes and to my office very busy all the morning there, entering things into my Book Manuscript, which pleases me very much. So to the Change, and so to my uncle Wight’s, by invitation, whither my father, wife, and Ashwell came, where we had but a poor dinner, and not well dressed; besides, the very sight of my aunt’s hands and greasy manner of carving, did almost turn my stomach. After dinner by coach to the King’s Playhouse, where we saw but part of “Witt without mony,” which I do not like much, but coming late put me out of tune, and it costing me four half-crowns for myself and company. So, the play done, home, and I to my office a while and so home, where my father (who is so very melancholy) and we played at cards, and so to supper and to bed.

Read the annotations

CSS & vertical rhythm for text, images, and tables

Vertical rhythm aligns lines to a consistent spacing cadence down the page. It creates a predictable flow for the eye to follow. Thanks to the rlh CSS unit, vertical rhythm is now easier to implement for text.1 But illustrations and tables can disrupt the layout. The amateur typographer in me wants to follow Bringhurst’s wisdom:

Headings, subheads, block quotations, footnotes, illustrations, captions and other intrusions into the text create syncopations and variations against the base rhythm of regularly leaded lines. These variations can and should add life to the page, but the main text should also return after each variation precisely on beat and in phase.

Robert Bringhurst, The Elements of Typographic Style

Text

Three factors govern vertical rhythm: font size, line height and margin or padding. Let’s set our baseline with an 18-pixel font and a 1.5 line height:

html {
  font-size: 112.5%;
  line-height: 1.5;
}
h1, h2, h3, h4 {
  font-size: 100%;
}
html, body,
h1, h2, h3, h4,
p, blockquote,
dl, dt, dd, ol, ul, li {
  margin: 0;
  padding: 0;
}

CSS Values and Units Module Level 4 defines the rlh unit, equal to the computed line height of the root element. All browsers support it since 2023.2 Use it to insert vertical spaces or to fix the line height when altering font size:3

h1, h2, h3, h4 {
  margin-top: 2rlh;
  margin-bottom: 1rlh;
}
h1 {
  font-size: 2.4rem;
  line-height: 2rlh;
}
h2 {
  font-size: 1.5rem;
  line-height: 1rlh;
}
h3 {
  font-size: 1.2rem;
  line-height: 1rlh;
}
p, blockquote, pre {
  margin-top: 1rlh;
}
aside {
  font-size: 0.875rem;
  line-height: 1rlh;
}

We can check the result by overlaying a grid4 on the content:

Screenshot of my website with a grid as an overlay and each line of text
fitting on the grid
Using CSS rlh unit to set vertical space works well for text. You can display the grid using Ctrl+Shift+G.

If a child element uses a font with taller intrinsic metrics, it may stretch the line’s box beyond the configured line height.5 A workaround is to reduce the line height to 1. The glyphs overflow but don’t push the line taller.

code, kbd {
  line-height: 1;
}

Responsive images

Responsive images are difficult to align on the grid because we don’t know their height. CSS Rhythmic Sizing Module Level 1 introduces the block-step property to adjust the height of an element to a multiple of a step unit. But most browsers don’t support it yet.

With JavaScript, we can add padding around the image so it does not disturb the vertical rhythm:

const targets = document.querySelectorAll(".lf-media-outer");
const adjust = (el, height) => {
  const rlh = parseFloat(getComputedStyle(document.documentElement).lineHeight);
  const padding = Math.ceil(height / rlh) * rlh - height;
  el.style.padding = `${padding / 2}px 0`;
};

targets.forEach((el) => adjust(el, el.clientHeight));
Screenshot of my website with a grid as an overlay and an image not breaking
the vertical rhythm. Additional padding is visible before and after the image.
The height of the image with padding is
216.
The image is snapped to the grid thanks to the additional padding computed with JavaScript. 216 is divisible by 27, our line height in this example.

As the image is responsive, its height can change. We need to wrap a resize observer around the adjust() function:

const ro = new ResizeObserver((entries) => {
  for (const entry of entries) {
    const height = entry.contentBoxSize[0].blockSize;
    adjust(entry.target, height);
  }
});
for (const target of targets) {
  ro.observe(target);
}

Tables

Table cells could set 1rlh as their height but they would feel constricted. Using 2rlh wastes too much space. Instead, we use incremental leading: we align one in every five lines.

table {
  border-spacing: 2px 0;
  border-collapse: separate;
  th {
    padding: 0.4rlh 1em;
  }
  td {
    padding: 0.2rlh 0.5em;
  }
}

To align the elements after the table, we need to add some padding. We can either reuse the JavaScript code from images or use a few lines of CSS that count the regular rows and compute the missing vertical padding:

table:has(tbody tr:nth-child(5n):last-child)   { padding-bottom: 0.2rlh; }
table:has(tbody tr:nth-child(5n+1):last-child) { padding-bottom: 0.8rlh; }
table:has(tbody tr:nth-child(5n+2):last-child) { padding-bottom: 0.4rlh; }
table:has(tbody tr:nth-child(5n+3):last-child) { padding-bottom: 0 }
table:has(tbody tr:nth-child(5n+4):last-child) { padding-bottom: 0.6rlh; }

A header cell has twice the padding of a regular cell. With two regular rows, the total padding is 2×2×0.2+2×0.4=1.6. We need to add 0.4rlh to reach 2rlh of extra vertical padding across the table.

Screenshot of my website with a grid as an overlay and a table following the
vertical rhythm. Additional padding is visible after the table. The height of
the table with padding is 405.
One line out of five is aligned to the grid. Additional padding is added after the table to not break the vertical rhythm. 405 is divisible by 27, our line height in this example.

None of this is necessary. But once you start looking, you can’t unsee it. Until browsers implement CSS Rhythmic Sizing, a bit of CSS wizardry and a touch of JavaScript is enough to pull it off. The main text now returns after each intrusion “precisely on beat and in phase.” 🎼


  1. See “Vertical rhythm using CSS lh and rlh units” by Paweł Grzybek. 

  2. For broader compatibility, you can replace 2rlh with calc(var(--line-height) * 2rem) and set the --line-height custom property in the :root pseudo-class. I wrote a simple PostCSS plugin for this purpose. 

  3. It would have been nicer to compute the line height with calc(round(up, calc(2.4rem / 1rlh), 0) * 1rlh). Unfortunately, typed arithmetic is not supported by Firefox yet. Moreover, browsers support round() only since 2024. Instead, I coded a PostCSS plugin for this as well. 

  4. The following CSS code defines a grid tracking the line height:

    body::after {
      content: "";
      z-index: 9999;
      background: linear-gradient(180deg, #c8e1ff99 1px, transparent 1px);
      background-size: 20px 1rlh;
      pointer-events: none;
    }
    

  5. See “Deep dive CSS: font metrics, line-height and vertical-align” by Vincent De Oliveira. 

The Scale of Iran’s Advantage Comes Into View

The country is beginning to wake up to the sheer level of strategic failure of Trump’s impulsive and unilateral war on Iran. Let me start with an extended quote from a weekend article in the New York Times …

The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on the argument that if Iran one day got a nuclear weapon, it would have the ultimate deterrent against future attacks.

It turns out that Iran already has a deterrent: its own geography.

Iran’s decision to flex its control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply flows, has brought global economic pain in the form of higher prices for gasoline, fertilizer and other staples. It has upended war planning in the United States and Israel, where officials have had to devise military options to wrest the strait from Iranian control.

The U.S.-Israeli war has significantly damaged Iran’s leadership structure, larger naval vessels and missile production facilities, but it has done little to restrict Iran’s ability to control the strait.

Iran could thus emerge from the conflict with a blueprint for its hard-line theocratic government to keep its adversaries at bay, regardless of any restrictions on its nuclear program.

This is what I’ve been saying for weeks. Control of the strait is a vastly powerful deterrent. It’s also much easier to use than any nuclear weapon, which is one of those threats that is powerful but also very hard to follow through on. I’m not claiming any great insight on this. You could see many other articles about this in the foreign policy press. But it’s only now that it’s really beginning to register in the broader U.S. news and politics discussion.

As someone pointed out to me a few weeks ago, Iran’s control of or at least leverage over the Strait of Hormuz has always been tacit in world affairs. The U.S. military has war-gamed a strait closure for decades; it’s a staple of predicted crises in the region. And it’s always been Iran as the country that was going to do it. That’s just down to simple geography and the fact that they’re the main adversary power to the regional hegemon, the United States. (It’s not something the Saudis or Kuwaitis are going to do. They’re allied to the regional Great Power.) But they’ve now shown they can close the strait without firing many shots. And the U.S. doesn’t seem to be able to do much about it.

For Iran it’s a deceptively elegant solution. Iran closes the strait with threats and perhaps some limited harassment of tankers. The U.S. could respond militarily. But the whole point is that the global economy is highly dependent on that region and that particular waterway not being a war zone. At least in the near-term U.S. military retaliation is more the problem than the solution. The only real solution would be for the U.S. to occupy a significant buffer zone in Iranian territory along the Persian Gulf. That’s probably militarily possible in the most basic sense. But how long do you occupy that strip of land? It’s not a workable solution on any long term basis.

We see something similar in the evolving press treatment of the war this morning. Donald Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire to give the Iranians more time to respond (submit?) to his conditions. To the Iranians, though, this was Trump showing his cards. He’s in a weak position and he knows it. This has happened again and again over the last two or three weeks. But this morning the Times again says just that. “To Iran, Trump Blinked First by Extending the Cease-Fire,” the article reads. Again, the mainstream press is now saying more openly what’s been clear almost since the beginning of the conflict. Trump started this war on an impulse. In strategic terms he lost almost immediately, despite the vast damage he’s done to Iran. But he’s been unable to accept that fact. He has not made a painful but still manageable retreat or escalate. He’s stuck. He doesn’t know what to do. And he’s increasingly unable to hide that simple reality from anyone watching events unfold.

Border Message

Thanks to differences in logging regulations, the messages actually turned out to be visible from the air.

So … How’s Trump’s Gerrymandering War Going?

A little less than a year ago, Trump began his push for state legislatures in, first, Texas, then other red states, to redraw their congressional district lines, a gambit that, he had apparently been told, would help him hold onto the House in the midterms even as his poll numbers began the long march downward that continues to this day.

Democrats counter-attacked — and, as Khaya Himmelman reports this morning, they are succeeding. (Trump is now telling supporters he believes gerrymandering may be “not good.”) Virginia voters have followed California’s lead, authorizing new, bluer maps for their state. As things stand now, that puts Democrats slightly ahead in this fight.

The overall picture is quite a bit more complicated, however. Here’s some of what we’re keeping tabs on.

  • Depending on how you count — and on the extent to which Trump’s 2024 coalition votes Republican in the 2026 midterms — it appears that Democrats may have squeezed one or two more seats out of these fights than Republicans.
  • In Virginia, however, the story isn’t over. Republicans filed numerous challenges to the referendum. The state Supreme Court decided to allow yesterday’s election to go forward, and to see if the constitutional amendment was approved before ruling on those challenges. Now it will.
  • Florida will now attempt a gerrymander, trying to squeeze a few Republican seats out of its current map (while risking diluting those seats to the point that they become pick-up opportunities for Democrats).
  • Legal fights in Missouri and Utah could change things as well. In Utah, the White House is hoping to weaponize a judicial ethics scandal, creating a vehicle, Republicans hope, to undo a court ruling that had the effect of shifting one seat from Republicans to Democrats.
  • Republican state legislatures have redrawn their maps (or, in a few notable cases, refused to) amid bullying from President Trump and his top advisors. Democratic states, on the other hand, have put the question before voters, made their case, and let the democratic process choose the path forward. In both states, polling showed that voters initially were skeptical (normal, healthy people don’t typically like gerrymandering) but came around to the new map as a reasonable check on Trump’s red-state-legislature-fueled power grab. It’s a set of facts that considerably complicates the story that “both sides” have rushed straight into the mud. (Hat tip to Mother Jones’ Ari Berman, who made a version of this point last night.)

We Need Your Help

We’re moving into the second half of our Annual TPM Membership Drive. So we’re at the crunch time when we really need to be adding numbers. Let me be as direct as I can. If you’re not a member, your signing up today will make a big difference in the vitality and health of TPM. I would be so grateful if you could take a moment literally right now and click this link and sign up. We’ve made it super easy. I delay things I plan to do as much as anyone. But if you could take a moment literally right now and click that link we would all appreciate it so much.

The exposed counties (from my email)

Professor Cowen,

Built a county-level AI displacement model across all 3,204 US counties. Top 5 most exposed counties are all in the DC metro, not the Rust Belt.

https://yourjobrisk.com

https://jakeprokopets.substack.com/p/why-the-most-ai-exposed-counties

18, built it in three days.

Jake Prokopets

The post The exposed counties (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Rediscovering the Handcart

Image: The handcart, equipped with a sail. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: The handcart, equipped with a sail. Photo by Kris De Decker.

The human-powered handcart is the oldest of vehicles, and it will likely be the last one around in the future. Of all vehicles, it’s the cheapest and least complex to build and use. It offers a large advantage over carrying a load on your back or dragging it over the ground - the even older concept of the sled. On the other hand, the handcart is cheaper and easier to use than the animal-powered cart. Oxen and donkeys eat more than humans, and they have their own will, which can work against the driver.

Like any other wheeled vehicle, the handcart requires roads to drive on. This infrastructure has not always been available anywhere or at any time in history. For example, in medieval Europe, porters and pack animals were more common than handcarts because of poor roads. 1 In the West, the handcart only reached its heyday during the first decades of the Industrial Revolution, when it connected fast-growing cities to train stations and harbors. In China, on the other hand, the handcart was the backbone of the transport network for millennia. 2

Of all vehicles, the handcart is the cheapest and least complex to build and use.

There are still many human-powered carts in modern society: strollers, grocery carts, roller suitcases, and various utility and folding carts. However, these modern carts are to their predecessors what modern birds are to dinosaurs. They are small, often with very small wheels, and we use them for very short distances, usually inside buildings. In contrast, old-fashioned handcarts were often large and had big wheels, and they were pushed or pulled on roads and over longer distances. Many crafts and professions had their own type of handcart.

Image: Low-tech Magazine’s handcart. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: Low-tech Magazine's handcart. Photo by Kris De Decker.

Why I need a handcart

People still use large handcarts in so-called “developing countries”. However, they can be just as useful again in the large cities of the industrialized world, as I can testify after using one for a couple of months. Last autumn, I received an internship application from Kozimo, who studies at the Design Academy Eindhoven. In his application, Kozimo sent a video of a large handcart he made, which he was driving on the streets of Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

I have always dreamt of a handcart. I have never owned a car, and the only times I miss one are when I have to move stuff, something which has become increasingly common lately. Consequently, I proposed to Kozimo to build a handcart for me.

Now, I can no longer imagine living without it. I have used the vehicle to move houses and offices, pick up materials and objects I bought online, new or second-hand, and transport workshop and event materials (bike generators, solar panels, solar ovens, books, sound systems). I have done the same for friends. During these trips, I often took home materials, furniture, or objects that I found for free on the streets of Barcelona.

Image: Kozimo and Kris De Decker with Low-tech Magazine’s handcart, halfway through a 30 km trip along the coast of Spain. Photo by Linda Osusky.
Image: Kozimo and Kris De Decker with Low-tech Magazine's handcart, halfway through a 30 km trip along the coast of Spain. Photo by Linda Osusky.

Unlike a van or a car, my handcart doesn’t need gasoline, electricity, or batteries, making it entirely independent from energy infrastructures. Neither do I need to pay taxes and insurance. The handcart is a very democratic vehicle. It allows anyone to carry a load wherever they want, while older, less affordable cars and vans are no longer allowed to enter city centers due to the installation of Low Emission Zones.

A handcart doesn’t need gasoline, electricity, or batteries, making it entirely independent from energy infrastructures.

It would make a lot of sense to offer vehicles like this at community centers, where they are available for all neighbors to use when needed. Few people would need a handcart each day, and communal use would solve the parking problem. Although our handcart can also be parked vertically, it won’t fit in most apartments.

Description of the handcart

This article will not explain in detail how to build a handcart. We want to do that another time with a simpler handcart model, because the vehicle we present in this article is not one that most people can make themselves. You need good woodworking and metalworking skills, and in fact, two people made the handcart.

Kozimo designed and built the whole structure from wood, while Guilhem Senges - visual artist and one of my neighbors - designed and made several essential reinforcements from metal; the wheels, the brakes, and the handlebars are all connected to the wood structure with custom-made iron parts.

Image: The underside of the handcart. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: The underside of the handcart. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Images: The front and back of the handcart. Photos by Kris De Decker.
Images: The front and back of the handcart. Photos by Kris De Decker.
Image: The lights are mounted in coconuts. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: The lights are mounted in coconuts. Photo by Kris De Decker.

Load weight and volume

Low-tech Magazine’s handcart is 250 cm long and 100 cm wide, while the platform itself measures 210 by 85 cm. Assuming a load height of 50 cm, the cargo volume is roughly 1.55 m3 (37 cubic feet or 1050 liters). That’s two to four times the typical trunk space in a European car. We have transported cargo that is wider or longer than the cart: a large heated table measuring 140x140cm, and several loads of wooden beams, each three meters long.

The load weight is limited by the wheels, which come from a wheelchair. They can support up to 150 kg. 3 The cart itself weighs 32 kg, so the practical maximum cargo weight is about 120 kg. The loading platform consists of slats with gaps between them, making it easy to secure various types of cargo.

Images: The handcart with various cargoes. Upper left: a 6m2 wooden floor and a chest. Upper right: 3-meter-long wood beams. Below: A heated table ready for transport.
Images: The handcart with various cargoes. Upper left: a 6m2 wooden floor and a chest. Upper right: 3-meter-long wood beams. Below: A heated table ready for transport.

It drives itself!

Over the past few months, we’ve learned that people have many misconceptions about handcarts. For example, you may think that pushing a handcart takes a lot of effort, perhaps based on your experience pushing supermarket carts through parking lots or pulling heavy suitcases through city centers (which is how I moved stuff before I had a handcart).

However, using the handcart can be so effortless - even when it’s heavily loaded - that it feels like you are not pushing at all. Once in motion, you can often guide it with one hand, and it sometimes feels like the cart is pulling you forward. It’s no exaggeration to say that pushing the handcart with a 100 kg load is more comfortable than walking while carrying a 10 kg heavy backpack.

Using the handcart can be so effortless - even when it’s heavily loaded - that it feels like you are not pushing at all.

There are several reasons for this light operation, rooted in physics. Each vehicle has to overcome three forces: rolling resistance, air resistance, and gravity. Air resistance is negligible at walking speed, meaning that a handcart user on flat terrain mainly needs to overcome rolling resistance. That’s the friction between wheels and road surface, a factor that’s largely independent of speed.

In contrast, air resistance increases with the square of speed. A cyclist, going at 15-20 km/h, already spends more effort overcoming air resistance than overcoming rolling resistance, which is the same in both cases because both vehicles have similar wheels. In short, the handcart’s low speed minimizes air resistance, while its narrow wheels minimize rolling resistance.

Image: Driving the handcart. Photo by Linda Osusky.
Image: Driving the handcart. Photo by Linda Osusky.

Second, accelerating a vehicle requires more energy than maintaining a constant speed. You only need to sustain momentum, not build it. Our handcart is pushed by a person walking, so the effort to accelerate lasts no longer than one or two seconds. In contrast, a cyclist takes much longer to reach cruise speed, and because of the higher air resistance, it takes more effort to sustain that speed. If the handcart is heavily loaded, it also gains significant kinetic energy, even at low speed. That explains why it sometimes feels like the cart is pulling you forward - because it actually is.

Finally, our wheels are much larger than those used on modern pushcarts. That makes for comfortable driving on asphalt and sidewalks, which are not as smooth as airport or supermarket floors. Large wheels increase air resistance, but because of our low speed, that doesn’t matter.

Handcarts and gravity

However, an effortless ride requires two conditions: flat terrain and a well-balanced load. Both involve the third force any vehicle must overcome: gravity.

Balancing the handcart: distributing the load

A two-wheeled cart becomes heavy and difficult to use when too much weight is placed on the front or back. Consequently, you need to load the vehicle so that the weight is equal on both sides of the wheels. That’s easy to check: the cart should remain in a horizontal position for several seconds without you touching it. If there’s just one piece of cargo, place it above the center of the wheels. If there are more things to carry, the total weight should be divided equally over the two sides. Finetuning the balance often involves moving a backpack from the front to the back of the cart, or vice versa.

You need to load the vehicle so that the weight is equal on both sides of the wheels.

A two-wheeled cart also needs additional support to keep it horizontal when parked, for instance, when loading or unloading cargo. Otherwise, the cart may suddenly flip to the other side. Our handcart carries four support beams, two on each side. When the cart is moving, they are in a horizontal position. When the cart is parked, we remove one or more beams and place them in a vertical position. Each beam can be set to a different length, allowing us to stabilize the cart on uneven terrain. We tighten the beams with screws.

Image: The handcart is parked with four supporting legs. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: The handcart is parked with four supporting legs. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: Detail of the supporting beam holder. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: Detail of the supporting beam holder. Photo by Kris De Decker.

Many people have asked us why we didn’t build a four-wheeled cart that wouldn’t need to be balanced. However, four wheels would double the rolling resistance and thus the effort required to push the cart. Furthermore, a four-wheeled cart is less maneuverable and more difficult to drive on uneven terrain. You also need to get two extra wheels, and you need to build a steering mechanism. Throughout history, the two-wheeled handcart (or one-wheeled handcart in the case of China) was much more common than the four-wheeled cart. 1

Going uphill: you need help

An effortless ride also requires more or less flat terrain, which is what you get here in many parts of Barcelona. If you go up a steep slope, you suddenly feel the weight of the cart and its cargo. Climbing with a heavily loaded cart can be as strenuous as running up stairs or cycling at top speed. People tell us we should put an electric motor on the cart, and that’s perfectly possible.

However, we found a simpler solution: if necessary, we ask for help from another person. Our handlebars are wide enough for two or even three people to push together, which makes going uphill a lot easier. Adding an electric motor and a battery would significantly increase the vehicle’s weight, and it only makes sense if you regularly have to climb hills.

Going downhill: brakes

Going downhill, you have to counter gravity forces to prevent the handcart from hurling down a slope, which would be very dangerous. Rather than pushing the cart, you’ll have to pull it back instead. Here, cyclists have all the advantage, as they can use gravity to its full benefit during a descent.

We made going downhill a lot easier by adding bicycle brakes. In combination with the large wheels, the brakes also allow the handcart to be taken down sidewalk curbs or even stairs without damaging it. They double as a hand brake as well, by tightening two lashing straps around them. That allows leaving the cart unattended on a slope or in high winds.

Image: The brakes. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: The brakes. Photo by Kris De Decker.

Handcarts go on the sidewalk

Many people assume that handcarts go on the road, with the cars, or on the cycling path. That’s not the case: you use it on the sidewalk. Legally, handcart users are in a similar position to other pedestrians pushing a smaller handcart, such as a stroller. The only difference is that, when they are forced onto the road because there’s no sidewalk or it’s blocked, handcart users should walk on the right side of the road, while other pedestrians should walk on the left. For now, the police have stopped us only once, and they were just curious.

Legally, handcart users are in a similar position to other pedestrians pushing a smaller handcart, such as a stroller.

We could find no traffic laws that limit the size of a handcart, at least not in the handful of countries we researched, including Spain. However, in practice, there are clear limits. If your vehicle is wider than the space between traffic bollards that keep cars out of pedestrian streets, all pedestrian zones will become inaccessible to you. You should also take into account other obstacles on the sidewalk, such as building scaffolding. Consequently, it’s rarely practical to build a handcart more than one meter wide.

Barcelona has very wide sidewalks in most of the city. We rarely have to share the road with cars or cyclists. Of course, that’s not the case in every city, and then the use of a handcart becomes less attractive. Using a handcart on the road or cyclepath is rather dangerous because other vehicles are much faster.

Image: Kozimo pushes the handcart through a narrow walkway. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: Kozimo pushes the handcart through a narrow walkway. Photo by Kris De Decker.

Respecting other pedestrians

Driving a large handcart on the sidewalk demands your full attention. You don’t want to hit any infrastructure, and you surely don’t want to hit someone’s legs. You need to drive it with respect for other pedestrians and their pets (some dogs start barking at the vehicle). In general, the handcart is very safe to use because it travels at a very low speed. That makes accidents less likely in the first place and less impactful if they do happen. You also have a very good overview of your vehicle, much better than for a car or a bicycle. As long as you keep your eyes on the handcart, you are unlikely to hit anything or anyone.

However, our handcart is so silent that people don’t hear it coming. We added a bicycle bell to warn people, but we hope to find a better tune in the future: every vehicle needs its own type of sound. We also need a bell for oncoming pedestrians who are watching their phones while walking and expect others to make space. With the handcart, we cannot always make that space. Our handcart has front and rear lights as well, wired to a USB power bank mounted underneath the platform. Lights are very helpful on sidewalks, both day and night, as they make the vehicle more visible. Furthermore, lights are essential if you need to move onto the road after dark.

Images: Kris De Decker drives the handcart through Barcelona. Photos by Guillaume Lion.
Images: Kris De Decker drives the handcart through Barcelona. Photos by Guillaume Lion.

Even in Barcelona, sidewalks can get crowded, and a busy sidewalk will slow down the vehicle considerably. With little chance to overtake someone, we tend to get stuck behind the slowest walkers.

A handcart is not a difficult vehicle to drive, but nowadays people in industrialized societies have no experience with it. Apart from driving it attentively, you also need to be careful when rounding blind corners (take the turn as wide as possible) and when you leave a garage or any other type of exit (pull rather than push the cart). By the time you see oncoming traffic, you already have 2 meters of your handcart on the road or around the corner.

Why not a bike trailer?

Almost everyone who sees the handcart for the first time asks the same question: how do you attach it to a bicycle? You don’t. You push it while walking. When we say that, there follows a silence. Pushing a handcart seems like one step too far back, even for people committed to living more sustainably. Why would you push a handcart if you could just as well use a much faster bike trailer, or a cargo bike?

In fact, there are several practical reasons to opt for a handcart rather than a bike trailer, and we have already mentioned many of them. First, a handcart lets you go anywhere a pedestrian can, while cyclists often need to get off their bikes and push them - just like a handcart. A handcart is also more agile. For example, although the cart is 2.5 meters long, it takes just two seconds and little space to turn it around and walk in the opposite direction from where you came from.

Why would you push a handcart if you could just as well use a much faster bike trailer, or a cargo bike?

A handcart can be built larger than a bike trailer as well. Although it’s perfectly possible to build a bike trailer the size of our handcart, its higher speed would pose much greater risk of accidents and damage, both to the cart and to other road users. As a bike trailer, it would also need to be made sturdier, and it would need a more elaborate mechanism to operate the brakes.

All this does not mean that bike trailers are a bad idea. We have used the handcart mainly for trips between 5 and 10 km, which comes down to one to two hours of walking. For longer distances, the bike trailer has the obvious advantage of speed. If you need to cover 40 km, you would need to travel eight hours with a handcart, compared to just two hours with a bike trailer.

Image: Guilhem Senges, who built the vehicle’s metal parts, pushes the handcart to a welding job a few streets up in the neighborhood.
Image: Guilhem Senges, who built the vehicle's metal parts, pushes the handcart to a welding job a few streets up in the neighborhood.

The merits of slow travel

However, when people ask us why we don’t use it as a bike trailer, we can also answer differently: why the rush? Deciding to travel with the slowest vehicle possible is subversive because it questions values we take for granted in the modern world, such as speed and utility.

To many people, walking a handcart seems like a waste of time, but our experience is exactly the opposite. Every trip is an adventure, and we always look forward to using it again. It’s a pleasure to drive the vehicle, more like steering a boat than driving a land vehicle. It’s easy to chat with other pedestrians, who tend to be very curious about our vehicle. Consequently, the trip takes even longer.

To many people, walking a handcart seems like a waste of time, but our experience is exactly the opposite.

Driving a handcart feels entirely different from using any other mode of transport. When people are walking, they usually cannot carry much with them, either in terms of weight or volume. In contrast, the handcart allows you to walk with a lot of stuff close at hand: drinks, food, a sound system, books, extra clothes. Furthermore, you have a large platform, which allows you to rest and invite others to do the same. It becomes a vehicle for wandering and roaming, and for connecting to other people.

Image: It’s a pleasure to drive the vehicle, more like steering a boat than driving a land vehicle. Model: Rocío Sánchez. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: It's a pleasure to drive the vehicle, more like steering a boat than driving a land vehicle. Model: Rocío Sánchez. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: The handcart with rain protection. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: The handcart with rain protection. Photo by Kris De Decker.

Handcart Accessories

Once the handcart proved its utility as a cargo vehicle, Kozimo began designing and building additional structures to expand its uses. These objects make use of the slatted platform or the support beam design. Unfortunately, Kozimo’s internship ended before we could test all these extensions, but the little experience we gained by now shows that the handcart can be much more than just a cargo vehicle.

Passenger seat

The first, and perhaps most powerful addition, is a foldable seat. While our handcart can be - and usually is - operated by only one person, it’s ideally handled by two people, especially for longer voyages. Thanks to the seat, one person can push the cart while the other one rests in the vehicle.

As long as the road is flat, the extra weight of the passenger does not significantly increase the effort to push the cart. Consequently, two people can travel faster or farther in a single day. When climbing hills or bridges, the passenger gets off the seat. If necessary, he or she also helps to push the cart.

One person can push the cart while the other one rests in the vehicle, increasing the distance that two people can travel in a day.

An extra pair of eyes on the road is also handy. The seat can be put in two positions, so that both the passenger and the driver are either looking in the same direction or facing each other, which makes it easier to talk and allows the passenger to serve as the rear-view mirror.

We used the seat on a 30 km day trip along the coast of Catalunya, Spain, moving stuff from my old place to my new place. For one person, this would have been an exhausting trip. However, there were several people on the way there, and two people on the way back. The fact that we could rest from time to time - without stopping - made a great difference, especially on the way back. An extra person also proved useful when unexpected obstacles arose. For example, there was a bridge under repair, which forced us to carry the cart down the rocks, over the beach, and up the rocks again.

Image: A foldable seat on the slatted platform. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: A foldable seat on the slatted platform. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: Kozimo drives the handcart along the coast. Linda Osusky is filming while resting in the seat. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: Kozimo drives the handcart along the coast. Linda Osusky is filming while resting in the seat. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Images: Carrying the handcart over the rocks. Photos by Linda Osusky.
Images: Carrying the handcart over the rocks. Photos by Linda Osusky.

Digital nomad office

As a second addition, we combined the seat with a work table that doubles as a solar power plant, resulting in a digital nomad office. The table fits onto the sides of the handcart and slides back and forth. The solar panel can be in a horizontal position or at various tilted angles. It can charge a laptop or any other device requiring up to 100 watts of power.

If you’re two people traveling, one person can work at the table while the other drives. If you’re alone, you can wheel the vehicle to the nearest park or beach, set up the four support legs, and work all day. In 2016, I took my home office off the grid with solar panels on the window sills. 4 Ten years later, both the office and the solar panels have become mobile.

Images: Digital nomad office. Photos by Kris De Decker.
Images: Digital nomad office. Photos by Kris De Decker.
Image: Digital nomad office. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: Digital nomad office. Photo by Kris De Decker.

Renewable power plant

Although we built only one solar panel support structure, the handcart platform is large enough to support a total of four 100-watt solar panels. That would provide us with 400 watts of solar power for a concert or emergency power, for example. The handcart can also transport the two bike generators Low-tech Magazine has in Barcelona. 5Consequently, the cart enables us to quickly provide power within a radius of several kilometers, at any time of the day. The handcart could also be wheeled into a sunny spot during the day, charging a battery bank to power a household during the night and in bad weather.

Mobile home

If you want to get back home the same day, the handcart’s range is roughly 40-80 km (8-16 hours of walking, back and forth). However, at least in my case, nobody obliges me to come back home the same day. I could use the handcart for longer voyages, especially since it offers me a place to sleep.

The four supporting legs that make loading and unloading the cart more practical can also be used to turn the vehicle into a bed. After Kozimo went back to the Netherlands, I bought a foldable mattress that fits neatly on the platform. During a trip, I can store the other cargo under the cart at night. Alternatively, I could push a passenger who’s lying in the bed, turning the vehicle into an adult version of a baby stroller.

Images: A foldable sleeping mattress on the handcart. Photos by Kris De Decker.
Images: A foldable sleeping mattress on the handcart. Photos by Kris De Decker.
Image: A mosquito net covers the handcart with a sleeping mattress. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: A mosquito net covers the handcart with a sleeping mattress. Photo by Kris De Decker.

Kozimo also made four supporting legs that are almost two meters long. I can use them to erect a tent around the bed, and cover the structure with modern tent materials, wool blankets, or a mosquito net. The large poles can also dry laundry. Furthermore, I could use the supporting legs in various combinations to convert the cart into a podium, expo stand, market stand, or a cinema or presentation screen.

The seat, table, solar panel, sleeping mattress, and longer poles can all be carried on the handcart simultaneously, leaving ample space for other luggage. That means that I could potentially work, live, and travel in the vehicle, turning it into a nomadic home. It fits somewhere between the tiny house on wheels, the tipi, and the homeless shack. Rents got very expensive in Barcelona, so I may as well give it a try.

Image: The handcart is packed for a longer trip. Photo by Kris De Decker.
Image: The handcart is packed for a longer trip. Photo by Kris De Decker.

Sailing and roller skating the handcart

Finally, Kozimo made a small sail for the handcart to help pull a heavy load in a good wind; the vehicle is sometimes used along the coast. Of course, we got the inspiration from the use of sails on the historical Chinese wheelbarrow. For a longer trip, the sail fits on the cart, so I could use it whenever the opportunity arises.

Images: The handcart with a 1m2 sail. Model: Iris De Decker. Photos by Kris De Decker.
Images: The handcart with a 1m2 sail. Model: Iris De Decker. Photos by Kris De Decker.

We could increase the speed of the handcart by using a larger sail, and combining it with roller blades, inline skates, or a skateboard. In that case, the cart would pull the driver in good winds. It’s also possible to push the cart while using roller blades, inline skates, or an electric unicycle, without a sail. For now, we did a first small test on flat terrain using inline skates, with very good results. If you would take enough cargo, the kinetic energy of a skate-powered handcart would regularly pull you forward even without a sail.

The higher speeds of these configurations obviously introduce more risk and, most likely, trouble with the police. Higher speeds require ample space, free of pedestrians. That almost always pushes the handcart on the road, between the cars, as most cycle paths are not wide enough. However, it shows that sustainable vehicles could take many different forms if only we would give them the space to flourish. There are more than enough roads suitable for sailing and roller-skating handcarts; we need to empty them of cars and vans.

Images: Julia Steketee drives the handcart on online skates. Photos by Kris De Decker.
Images: Julia Steketee drives the handcart on online skates. Photos by Kris De Decker.

  1. Bulliet, Richard W. The wheel: inventions and reinventions. Columbia University Press, 2016. ↩︎ ↩︎

  2. How to downsize a transport network: The Chinese wheelbarrow, Kris De Decker, Low-tech Magazine, 2011. https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/12/how-to-downsize-a-transport-network-the-chinese-wheelbarrow/ ↩︎

  3. You could build a handcart with stronger wheels, either heavy-duty wheelchair wheels (available up to 350 kg) or cargo-bike wheels. However, stronger wheels are likely wider, which increases rolling resistance. It would also become more difficult to push these heavier loads up a steep incline. ↩︎

  4. How to get your apartment off-the-grid, Kris De Decker, Low-tech Magazine, 2016. https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2016/05/how-to-get-your-apartment-off-the-grid/ ↩︎

  5. How to build a practical household bike generator, Kris De Decker & Marie Verdeil, Low-tech Magazine, 2022. https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2022/03/how-to-build-a-practical-household-bike-generator/ ↩︎

Wednesday assorted links

1. On health care price transparency.

2. Interview with Sindarov’s trainer.

3. Tariff increases are contractionary.

4. Progress Conference 2026.

5. U.S. manufacturing capacity has been growing for sixteen consecutive quarters.

6. Dean Ball book on AI is coming.

7. DEI statement requirements in academic hiring have more than halved within a year.

8. Christopher Phelan nominated to be CEA chair.

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The Slide

They don’t want to hear it.

They don’t.

It is legit good feedback. It is substantive, and it is 100% true, but they do not want to hear it.

How do you know this? You’ve provided the feedback several times. Three different variants of the critical feedback, and each time, the response is one of these:

  • “I know, I know. I’m working on it.” They are not.
  • An immediate, abrupt topic change. What?
  • (My favorite) Twisting the feedback and making it about you. Impressive.

This is not a bad employee, this is not a person incapable of changing, and this is most certainly not an adversarial situation.

They don’t want to hear it.

Not a Trick

I have a move. It’s not a guarantee, but if you’ve tried the obvious approaches, if you’ve tried straight talk, and if you’ve made no progress, I offer The Slide.

There are prerequisites for The Slide:

  1. You’ve tried a couple of different approaches to giving this feedback. They’ve heard it, but they have not acted.
  2. You have high confidence that if they actually absorbed the feedback and acted on it, they’d attempt to change. Somewhere in the back of their head, past the denial, you know they’ll get it.
  3. You’ve had to learn the same lesson in your professional career.

I can not tell you when to deploy The Slide, the opportunity will present itself when the person who needs the feedback, once again, complains or otherwise comments on the by-product consequence of their negligence. Yes, it’s infuriating because if they just listened to you, they’d have a stronger set of tools to tackle the problem, but bury that and Slide ’em:

Them: “Yeah, and isn’t just the endless meetings, it’s the fact that I don’t have anyone on the team who can do the meetings. Francis is deep in backend debugging, Jake isn’t ready to run that meeting, and Jason, well, Jason doesn’t know what he doesn’t know.”

Sweet, sweet irony. Take a deep breath and Slide:

“Back at Pinterest, we didn’t have a CTO. I was the VP of Engineering, and had this loose collection of very bright senior engineers who wanted to help. Problem was… me. Whenever a CTO-class problem came up, I’d try to be the CTO, which meant I wasn’t being the VP of Engineering. After a bit, I was doing poorly at both jobs.”

Them: “Poorly, how? What’d you do?”

“It’s mostly the sense of ‘Is there enough time in the day?’ If the answer to that question is ever ‘no’, then I’m doing poorly. Doesn’t hurt when others point that out, too. After a few months of barely treading water, I gathered together the senior engineer leaders, and we built a small council. When CTO problems arrived, we gave it one of them. They drove, but they relied on the other members and me to get it done.”

So, what feedback had I been attempting and failing to give this mysterious former manager prior to this bearing of my soul? Correct. Delegation. The single biggest challenge for new managers — giving up the responsibility for the product… for the building. Learning how to give accountability for projects of significance to the team. It’s an essential set of complex skills involving trust, communication, and, most importantly, judgment. Failure to understand delegation is failing to be a leader. Senior or not.

My thesis is why this skill is hard to learn; the reason they don’t want to hear this feedback is that it contradicts the valuable core engineering skills that got them the role in the first place. The Slide is you gently sliding up right next to that discomfort, that contradiction, and not accusing, not lecturing, just telling the story of that time you learned the thing.

Not a Guarantee

Why won’t they listen? What is it about this particular habit or behavior that has this capable, smart, and reasonable human ignore the advice of a seasoned, well-informed, and trusted leader?

The answer is usually fear. The variants of fear that apply here are as numerous as the situations, but fear is fear. They have an inner monologue about this topic, “I will be less if I do this. I will have failed if I don’t achieve. I should have known. They will finally know I am a fraud.”

You will never diagnose the fear, but slide up next to them and tell them about the time you were scared, too.

Hegseth Is No George Washington: The Influenza Vaccination Edition

Defense Secretary Hegseth, unaware that one of the key reforms George Washington enacted while commanding the Continental Army was to institute a smallpox inoculation program, let it rip with this policy brain fart (boldface mine):

The military will no longer require U.S. troops to receive the annual flu vaccine, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday, rolling back what he described as an “overly broad” mandate that had been in place for seven decades.

“We’re seizing this moment to discard any absurd, overreaching mandates that only weaken our war-fighting capabilities,” Hegseth said in a video posted to his social media channels. “In this case, this includes the universal flu vaccine and the mandate behind it.”

Hegseth said that under a new policy, soldiers would be able to take the vaccine if they believed it was in their best interest, billing it as an effort to “restore freedom and strength to our joint force.”

“But we will not force you, because your body, your faith and your convictions are not negotiable,” he said…

The U.S. military first mandated the flu vaccine in 1945, at the end of World War II — in part to hedge against the threat of biological warfare and because the great influenza pandemic of 1918 to 1920 had crippled American troop readiness during World War I, killing more than 26,000 American soldiers. The mandate was briefly withdrawn in 1949 but reinstated in the 1950s.

It is as if the entire Trump administration is full of Michael Browns (of “Heckuva job Brownie” infamy), though that is arguably unfair to Michael Brown, since he was just unqualified, not delusionally stupid. Snark aside, it is clear that the Republican Party line regarding vaccination is that, while there might be some very sick people who benefit from vaccination, everyone else is more at risk from vaccination than from the disease itself, which is foolish. Influenza is not fun, and it is not just a cold.

Meanwhile, if you think HHS is going to step in here, yesterday HHS Secretary Kennedy talked about “cleaning up the risk pool”, so eugenics is back on the menu, boys!

But there were no differences between the two parties, amirite?

Moral Economics, on the Armchair Expert podcast

At the Armchair Expert podcast, Dax Shepard interviewed me in anticipation of the May publication of my book Moral Economics: From Prostitution to Organ Sales, What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work  

 

Here's the video (which was recorded last month at their studio in LA): 

ICE Uses Graphite Spyware

ICE has admitted that it uses spyware from the Israeli company Graphite.

Ending the Occupational Licensing Racket

VinNews: The Rockland County Legislature approved amendments to the Home Improvement Law, dissolving the existing Home Improvement Licensing Board and shifting primary licensing authority to the Legislature itself…Under the new rules, the former licensing board will be reduced to an advisory role, losing its power to issue or revoke licenses. Licensing responsibilities will now fall under the Rockland County Legislature…

This is an interesting change and worth studying. In the Licensing Racket, which I reviewed for the WSJ, Rebecca Haw Allensworth emphasizes that occupational licensing boards put the fox in charge of the chickens:

Governments enact occupational-licensing laws but rarely handle regulation directly—there’s no Bureau of Hair Braiding. Instead, interpretation and enforcement are delegated to licensing boards, typically dominated by members of the profession. Occupational licensing is self-regulation. The outcome is predictable: Driven by self-interest, professional identity and culture, these boards consistently favor their own members over consumers.

Ms. Allensworth conducted exhaustive research for “The Licensing Racket,” spending hundreds of hours attending board meetings—often as the only nonboard member present. At the Tennessee board of alarm-system contractors, most of the complaints come from consumers who report the sort of issues that licensing is meant to prevent: poor installation, code violations, high-pressure sales tactics and exploitation of the elderly. But the board dismisses most of these complaints against its own members, and is far more aggressive in disciplining unlicensed handymen who occasionally install alarm systems. As Ms. Allensworth notes, “the board was ten times more likely to take action in a case alleging unlicensed practice than one complaining about service quality or safety.”

Moving regulation out of the hands of the regulated could be an improvement but there are also advantages to self-regulation. See my review for other reform possibilities.

Hat tip: Heshy.

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Butterfly (Papillon)

Painting of swimmers on starting blocks at a pool, crowd in background, vibrant colours and stylised brushstrokes.

Crafting each frame by hand, an animator paints the story of an Olympic swimmer’s return after surviving the Holocaust

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Politics Chat, April 21, 2026

Politics Chat, April 21, 2026

Earth Day | Talk & Draw with Liza Donnelly & Heather Cox Richardson

Earth Day is tomorrow, and Liza Donnelly and I are celebrating with a drawing!

And about the film I mention in the introduction: “Women Laughing.” It’s a look at the women who have drawn cartoons for the New Yorker throughout its history, and their cartoons, shown in the film, will get you laughing. But I was fascinated by the examination of art in the (quite short) film. As the cartoonists explained, their art reflected their own internal vision, and yet it speaks to huge audiences. That universality, in turn, creates a community that both reflects and changes society.

When I teach writing, I talk a lot about the relationship between writer and material, and how, if you think your work through well and manage to execute it even 80% as you envision it, a piece speaks to an audience. But I have never thought about those relationships for cartoons, which are more immediately influential than words (think of Herblock’s extraordinary commentary on Watergate in the Washington Post, for example). I have continued to think about the film since seeing it, and will teach it in the future. Anyone interested in these issues might want to take a look.

If I manage this right, information about it should be here: Women Laughing.

Happy Earth Day!

Oh, and Liza can be found here, at Seeing Things.

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April 21, 2026

There is the unmistakable feeling that the wheels are coming off the MAGA bus.

Alayna Treene and Kevin Liptak of CNN reported last night that by the end of last week, negotiators for the U.S. and Iran appeared to be on the verge of hammering out an end to hostilities before the two-week ceasefire ends on Wednesday. Then Trump took to the media to crow that Iranian leaders had “agreed to everything,” including the removal of its enriched uranium, and that “Iran has agreed never to close the Strait of Hormuz again.” He promised that Iran had agreed to end its nuclear program forever and that talks “should go very quickly.” Trump declared the breakthrough was “A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD!” and asked why media outlets questioning the alleged deal didn’t “just say, at the right time, JOB WELL DONE, MR. PRESIDENT?”

Iranian negotiators said Trump’s claims were false and that if he didn’t remove the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, they would reclose the Strait of Hormuz they had just opened. “The Iranians didn’t appreciate [Trump] negotiating through social media and making it appear as if they had signed off on issues they hadn’t yet agreed to, and ones that aren’t popular with their people back home,” a source told Treene and Liptak.

Over the weekend, Iranians closed the strait and the U.S. fired on an Iranian vessel. On Sunday, even as two senior U.S. government officials were on television saying Vice President J.D. Vance would lead a new round of talks in Pakistan, Trump was on the phone telling reporters that he wouldn’t. On Monday, Trump told a reporter that Vance was in the air about to touch down in Pakistan just minutes before Vance’s motorcade arrived at the White House.

After Iranian officials said today they were not sure they would respond to U.S. positions or go to Pakistan for talks, Vance’s trip has been put on hold. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, complained of “contradictory messages, inconsistent behavior and unacceptable actions by the American side,” on Iran’s state media.

For his part, Trump blamed the Democrats for the chaos in U.S. diplomacy. “The Democrats are doing everything possible to hurt the very strong position we are in with respect to Iran,” his social media account posted yesterday. The post insisted “it will be done RIGHT, and we won’t let the Weak and Pathetic Democrats, TRAITORS ALL, who for years have been talking about the Dangers of Iran, and that something has to be done, but now, since I’m the one doing it, belittle the accomplishments of our Military and the Trump Administration. This is being perfectly executed, on the scale of Venezuela, just a bigger, more complex operation.”

As David S. Bernstein of Good Politics/Bad Politics noted, Trump’s account this morning reposted another account claiming that Iran was preparing to execute eight women, showing AI-generated images of them. Trump posted: “To the Iranian leaders who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!!” As Bernstein put it: Trump urged Iran “to start peace negotiations by releasing non-existent, AI-generated women some rando posted about on X.”

Alan Rappeport of the New York Times reported today that Trump is considering using money from the U.S. Treasury to shore up the finances of the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, which have been hurt by the Iran war. After the story appeared, Zach Everson of Public Citizen pointed out that Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who controls the sovereign wealth of the United Arab Emirates, has directed hundreds of millions to Trump personally, buying 49% of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial and investing $2 billion of WLF’s USD1 stablecoin.

Tonight, Trump announced he is extending the ceasefire with Iran until Iran comes up with a proposal to end the fighting permanently. Iran has responded by saying Trump’s extension “means nothing” and suggested it was a “ploy to buy time for a surprise strike.”

According to a new poll out today from Strength in Numbers/ Verasight, conducted between April 10 and April 14, just 35% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s job performance. Sixty-one percent disapprove, a new low. Seventy-two percent of Americans disapprove of the way Trump is handling rising prices. In a generic ballot for Congress, voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by 50% to 43%, a margin of seven points.

Administration officials’ approach to the midterm elections seems to be to continue to sow distrust of elections. Following Patel’s claim, on Sunday, that there would soon be arrests stemming from the 2020 presidential election, Harmeet Dhillon, assistant attorney general of the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice (DOJ) released a letter from April 14 demanding that a Wayne County, Michigan, elections official give it records from Wayne County and Detroit from 2024 and alleging that there was fraud in 2020. Although Trump won Michigan, he lost Wayne County by almost 250,000 votes.

Michigan attorney general Dana Nessel and secretary of state Jocelyn Benson wrote in the Detroit Free Press that “this demand isn’t about election integrity—it’s about a weaponized DOJ trying to please a president who doesn’t want to be held accountable at the ballot box by voters tired of the chaos of his administration. It’s also about the upcoming elections in November and in 2028, which he is working to discredit by sowing doubt as to the security and fairness of the process. It’s not going to work with us, and it’s not going to hold up in court,” they wrote. “Michigan’s elections are safe and secure.”

Trump seems, though, to be courting the base that in 2021 attacked the U.S. Capitol to try to keep him in power. After offending his base first by posting an image of himself as Jesus Christ and then by insulting Pope Leo XIV, Trump is participating this week in an event called “America Reads the Bible.” Kaanita Iyer and Aleena Fayaz of CNN report that Trump is expected to read 2 Chronicles 7:11–22 from the Oval Office. The same verse was read by Cowboys for Trump founder Couy Griffin at the January 6, 2021, insurrection, and is associated with white evangelicals’ belief God sent Trump to heal America.

Trump’s vulnerability is showing on Capitol Hill. In Public Notice today, Noah Berlatsky examined House speaker Mike Johnson’s no good, very bad day last Thursday. With a Republican majority in the House of only three seats and a dramatically weakened president, Republican House members handed Johnson two embarrassing losses on Thursday.

First, Republicans joined with Democrats first to pass a discharge petition to force a vote on a measure to protect the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for 350,000 Haitian immigrants, and then they passed the measure itself.

Trump’s administration has left his claims to want to deport undocumented criminals far in the dust, working hard to get rid of legal immigrants as well. When she was homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem ignored the requirements for evaluating TPS and simply refused to agree to routine extensions of TPS for people from Venezuela, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Nepal, Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Cameroon.

Haitian TPS holders sued, noting Noem’s apparent racial animus as a driving factor in her decision and that Haiti remains dangerous in the wake of the 2010 earthquake that destabilized the country. In February, U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes paused the loss of Haitian immigrants’ TPS until the lawsuit works its way through the courts. Last month, Representative Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) brought a discharge petition to force a vote on a measure to restore TPS to Haitian immigrants.

Johnson has tried to do Trump’s bidding even though it means ignoring what members of Congress actually want. It is possible for members to force a measure to the floor even after the speaker bottles it up through something called a “discharge petition,” by getting a majority of members of Congress to agree to override the speaker, but such an action is exceedingly rare because it requires members of the majority to side with the minority against their own speaker. Or it was exceedingly rare before this Congress. Herb Scribner of Axios noted last year that there were seven successful discharge petitions in the 30 years between 1985 and 2015; there were the same number from 2023 to 2025.

Four Republicans, all of them from purple districts, joined all the Democrats to sign Pressley’s discharge petition. Then when the measure came up for a vote, six more Republicans voted in favor of it. As Berlatsky notes, the bill probably won’t pass the Senate, but not only did it demonstrate Johnson’s weakness, it also, as Jamie Dupree of Regular Order noted, was a real rebuke to Trump on immigration. And it was bipartisan.

That was not the end of Johnson’s bad day. The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) of 1978 was scheduled to expire on April 20, and Trump and Republican loyalists wanted simply to renew it. But members of both parties have issues with Section 702 of that act, which allows the government to collect information about the communications of foreigners without getting a warrant from a judge. But there are increasing signs the government is also collecting data from Americans without a warrant, and members of both parties concerned about government overreach have refused to extend the law without reforms to 702.

Republican leaders tried to force through a five-year extension just after midnight on Friday, but while four Democrats voted in favor of the measure, twelve Republicans voted against it, sending the measure down to a loss by 20 votes. Then Johnson tried to push through an 18-month extension. Twenty Republicans voted against even considering it. Finally, the House agreed to extend the law for just ten days.

Today, Virginians passed a redistricting referendum that will boost the Democrats’ chances of winning four more seats in the U.S. House. Redistricting in the middle of a decade is rare, but after Trump pressed Texas to rejigger its maps to give Republicans more House seats, California retaliated with its own temporary redistricting to offset the new Texas seats. Other states followed suit. As David A. Lieb of the Associated Press explained today, Republicans currently believe that their redistricting of Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas will net them nine more seats. Democrats think their redistricting of California, along with a court-ordered redistricting of Utah, will get them an additional six seats. They are hoping that redistricting Virginia temporarily will make up the difference.

Zachary Roth of Democracy Docket noted that Trump ally Steve Bannon warned on his podcast Monday that “Democrats are demonic” and said that if allowed to have power, they will impeach Trump. “Not just, are they going to take power and use these four seats to impeach Trump?” he said, “But they’re going to use this as a template for the rest of the country. It’s coming.”

Notes:

https://www.npr.org/2026/02/03/g-s1-108463/judge-blocks-ending-protections-haitians

https://apnews.com/article/virginia-redistricting-election-congress-trump-78e0e68100119011b1b439634f6b6fa1

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/bannon-warns-demonic-dems-will-impeach-trump-if-they-win-virginia-redistricting-vote/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/politics/social-media-posts-trump-iran-deal

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/21/world/iran-us-war-trump-news/heres-the-latest?smid=url-share

Strength In Numbers
Trump approval falls to 35% as rating on handling prices hits a record -46
This article reports results from the April 2026 Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. You can read our previous poll releases here. Subscribers to Strength In Numbers have access to additional visuals and a full archive of crosstabs here, and can suggest questions for future polls via the comments section below…
Read more

https://www.freep.com/story/opinion/contributors/2026/04/19/trump-doj-nessel-benson-wayne-county-ballot-election-2024/89660271007/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/justice-department-demands-michigan-county-turn-2024-ballots-rcna340891

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/19/politics/trump-bible-reading-oval-office

Public Notice
Speaker Johnson's beginning of the end
Read more

https://www.npr.org/2026/02/03/g-s1-108463/judge-blocks-ending-protections-haitians

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/17/gop-mike-johnson-aca-vote-discharge-petitions-list

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/us/politics/trump-uae-chips-witkoff-world-liberty.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/business/economy/us-uae-financial-support.html

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/21/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/21/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel?post-id=cmo95bdij0000356ts2h1jt8o

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-special-elections/virginia-ballot-measures

Bluesky:

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dbernstein.bsky.social/post/3mjz7drz6a22x

jamiedupree.bsky.social/post/3mjn2sj4soc2c

zacheverson.com/post/3mjzokffwjs2w

davetait.bsky.social/post/3mjsfnh5vas2e

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The empirically inscrutable climate-economy relationship

From Finbar Curtin and Matthew G. Burgess, here is the paper.  Here is the thread, worth a read.  Important stuff, I hope to hear more about this.  The whole climate to gdp transmission thing does not seem to be working very well?

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This is a map of the universe. This is a map of the universe.


Is Claude Code going to cost $100/month? Probably not - it's all very confusing

Anthropic today quietly (as in silently, no announcement anywhere at all) updated their claude.com/pricing page (but not their Choosing a Claude plan page, which shows up first for me on Google) to add this tiny but significant detail (arrow is mine, and it's already reverted):

Screenshot of the Claude pricing grid - Compare features across plans. Free, Pro, Max 5x and Max 20x all have the same features, with the exception of Claude Code which is on Max only and Claude Cowork which is on Pro and Max only. An arrow highlights the Claude Code for Pro cross.

The Internet Archive copy from yesterday shows a checkbox there. Claude Code used to be a feature of the $20/month Pro plan, but according to the new pricing page it is now exclusive to the $100/month or $200/month Max plans.

Update: don't miss the update to this post, they've already changed course a few hours after this change went live.

So what the heck is going on? Unsurprisingly, Reddit and Hacker News and Twitter all caught fire.

I didn't believe the screenshots myself when I first saw them - aside from the pricing grid I could find no announcement from Anthropic anywhere. Then Amol Avasare, Anthropic's Head of Growth, tweeted:

For clarity, we're running a small test on ~2% of new prosumer signups. Existing Pro and Max subscribers aren't affected.

And that appears to be the closest we have had to official messaging from Anthropic.

I don't buy the "~2% of new prosumer signups" thing, since everyone I've talked to is seeing the new pricing grid and the Internet Archive has already snapped a copy. Maybe he means that they'll only be running this version of the pricing grid for a limited time which somehow adds up to "2%" of signups?

I'm also amused to see Claude Cowork remain available on the $20/month plan, because Claude Cowork is effectively a rebranded version of Claude Code wearing a less threatening hat!

There are a whole bunch of things that are bad about this.

If we assume this is indeed a test, and that test comes up negative and they decide not to go ahead with it, the damage has still been extensive:

  1. A whole lot of people got scared or angry or both that a service they relied on was about to be rug-pulled. There really is a significant difference between $20/month and $100/month for most people, especially outside of higher salary countries.
  2. The uncertainty is really bad! A tweet from an employee is not the way to make an announcement like this. I wasted a solid hour of my afternoon trying to figure out what had happened here. My trust in Anthropic's transparency around pricing - a crucial factor in how I understand their products - has been shaken.
  3. Strategically, should I be taking a bet on Claude Code if I know that they might 5x the minimum price of the product?
  4. More of a personal issue, but one I care deeply about myself: I invest a great deal of effort (that's 105 posts and counting) in teaching people how to use Claude Code. I don't want to invest that effort in a product that most people cannot afford to use.

Last month I ran a tutorial for journalists on "Coding agents for data analysis" at the annual NICAR data journalism conference. I'm not going to be teaching that audience a course that depends on a $100/month subscription!

This also doesn't make sense to me as a strategy for Anthropic. Claude Code defined the category of coding agents. It's responsible for billions of dollars in annual revenue for Anthropic already. It has a stellar reputation, but I'm not convinced that reputation is strong enough for it to lose the $20/month trial and jump people directly to a $100/month subscription.

OpenAI have been investing heavily in catching up to Claude Code with their Codex products. Anthropic just handed them this marketing opportunity on a plate - here's Codex engineering lead Thibault Sottiaux:

I don't know what they are doing over there, but Codex will continue to be available both in the FREE and PLUS ($20) plans. We have the compute and efficient models to support it. For important changes, we will engage with the community well ahead of making them.

Transparency and trust are two principles we will not break, even if it means momentarily earning less. A reminder that you vote with your subscription for the values you want to see in this world.

I should note that I pay $200/month for Claude Max and I consider it well worth the money. I've had periods of free access in the past courtesy of Anthropic but I'm currently paying full price, and happy to do so.

But I care about the accessibility of the tools that I work with and teach. If Codex has a free tier while Claude Code starts at $100/month I should obviously switch to Codex, because that way I can use the same tool as the people I want to teach how to use coding agents.

Here's what I think happened. I think Anthropic are trying to optimize revenue growth - obviously - and someone pitched making Claude Code only available for Max and higher. That's clearly a bad idea, but "testing" culture says that it's worth putting even bad ideas out to test just in case they surprise you.

So they started a test, without taking into account the wailing and gnashing of teeth that would result when their test was noticed - or accounting for the longer-term brand damage that would be caused.

Or maybe they did account for that, and decided it was worth the risk.

I don't think that calculation was worthwhile. They're going to have to make a very firm commitment along the lines of "we heard your feedback and we commit to keeping Claude Code available on our $20/month plan going forward" to regain my trust.

As it stands, Codex is looking like a much safer bet for me to invest my time in learning and building educational materials around.

Update: they've reversed it already

In the time I was typing this blog entry Anthropic appear to have reversed course - the claude.com/pricing page now has a checkbox back in the Pro column for Claude Code. I can't find any official communication about it though.

Let's see if they can come up with an explanation/apology that's convincing enough to offset the trust bonfire from this afternoon!

Update 2: it may still affect 2% of signups?

Amol on Twitter:

was a mistake that the logged-out landing page and docs were updated for this test [embedded self-tweet]

Getting lots of questions on why the landing page / docs were updated if only 2% of new signups were affected.

This was understandably confusing for the 98% of folks not part of the experiment, and we've reverted both the landing page and docs changes.

So the experiment is still running, just not visible to the rest of the world?

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, llm-pricing, ai-ethics, coding-agents, claude-code, codex-cli

Quoting Bobby Holley

As part of our continued collaboration with Anthropic, we had the opportunity to apply an early version of Claude Mythos Preview to Firefox. This week’s release of Firefox 150 includes fixes for 271 vulnerabilities identified during this initial evaluation. [...]

Our experience is a hopeful one for teams who shake off the vertigo and get to work. You may need to reprioritize everything else to bring relentless and single-minded focus to the task, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. We are extremely proud of how our team rose to meet this challenge, and others will too. Our work isn’t finished, but we’ve turned the corner and can glimpse a future much better than just keeping up. Defenders finally have a chance to win, decisively.

Bobby Holley, CTO, Firefox

Tags: anthropic, claude, ai, firefox, llms, mozilla, security, generative-ai, ai-security-research

Changes to GitHub Copilot Individual plans

Changes to GitHub Copilot Individual plans

On the same day as Claude Code's temporary will-they-won't-they $100/month kerfuffle (for the moment, they won't), here's the latest on GitHub Copilot pricing.

Unlike Anthropic, GitHub put up an official announcement about their changes, which include tightening usage limits, pausing signups for individual plans (!), restricting Claude Opus 4.7 to the more expensive $39/month "Pro+" plan, and dropping the previous Opus models entirely.

The key paragraph:

Agentic workflows have fundamentally changed Copilot’s compute demands. Long-running, parallelized sessions now regularly consume far more resources than the original plan structure was built to support. As Copilot’s agentic capabilities have expanded rapidly, agents are doing more work, and more customers are hitting usage limits designed to maintain service reliability.

It's easy to forget that just six months ago heavy LLM users were burning an order of magnitude less tokens. Coding agents consume a lot of compute.

Copilot was also unique (I believe) among agents in charging per-request, not per-token. (Correction: Windsurf also operated a credit system like this which they abandoned last month.) This means that single agentic requests which burn more tokens cut directly into their margins. The most recent pricing scheme addresses that with token-based usage limits on a per-session and weekly basis.

My one problem with this announcement is that it doesn't clearly clarify which product called "GitHub Copilot" is affected by these changes. Last month in How many products does Microsoft have named 'Copilot'? I mapped every one Tey Bannerman identified 75 products that share the Copilot brand, 15 of which have "GitHub Copilot" in the title.

Judging by the linked GitHub Copilot plans page this covers Copilot CLI, Copilot cloud agent and code review (features on GitHub.com itself), and the Copilot IDE features available in VS Code, Zed, JetBrains and more.

Via Hacker News

Tags: github, microsoft, ai, generative-ai, github-copilot, llms, llm-pricing, coding-agents

Earth Day in Oregon: Groundhog Day for the Climate Doom Loop

Despite legal pledges to reduce greenhouse gases to address climate change, Portland’s transportation greenhouse gas emissions are going up, not down. 

State, regional and city governments have adopted climate goals that purport to commit to steadily reducing greenhouse gases, but we’re not merely failing to make progress, we’re going in the wrong direction. 

In the face of these persistent failures,  Oregon is moving forward with plans to billions and billions dollars into three Portland area freeway widening projects. As a result, April 22 isn’t so much Earth Day as a macabre Groundhog Day, where every year we’re reneging in a bigger and more expensive way on our climate pledges, even as the crisis grows worse.

For us at City Observatory, Earth Day has officially become the new Groundhog Day. Every year, we wake up to the same repeating script: the climate crisis accelerates, transportation-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions climb, and our public agencies double down on subsidizing automobile travel, in flat violation of state and local pledges to reduce driving to fight climate change.

Like Bill Murray’s character in the movie, we are trapped in a loop. Only this year, the script has taken a darker, more expensive turn.

An Abject Failure to Reduce Emissions from Driving

All of the objective data on greenhouse gas emissions shows we’re failing to meet our stated and legally adopted climate goals, chiefly because transportation emissions are increasing, and we’re driving more. ClimateTrace.org, which tracks transportation greenhouse gas emissions throughout the United States has data showing the Portland area emissions have increased substantially over the past five years, even as state law and local plans call for emissions to continuously decrease.  Metro’s adopted regional Climate Smart Strategy calls for us to reduce greenhouse gases by almost 5 percent per year; instead, they are increasing, at more than three-fourths of one percent per year.

Compared to the promises made by the City, the region and the state, we’re not merely failing to make progress, we’re going rapidly in the wrong direction.

You’d think with the data showing that we’re falling far behind our planned and committed reductions in greenhouse gases and driving, that state and local officials would be re-doubling their efforts to lower greenhouse gases.  Today, as in prior years, you would be wrong.  Instead, the Oregon Department of Transportation is proposing to commit the region to spending tens of billions of dollars, largely to subsidize even more driving, and higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

As we describe below, Portland established its environmental reputation–and fostered dramatic economic improvements–starting in the 1970s by tearing out some freeways and choosing not to build others. The environmental legacy of freeway removal is not merely forgotten, its being actively demolished by a transportation department that is hell-bent on building wider highways and increasing traffic and greenhouse gas emissions.  Between the $15.5 billion Interstate Bridge Replacement project, the $2.1 billion I-5 Rose Quarter Project, and a plan to rebuild and widen the I-205 Abernethy Bridge at $815 million, ODOT is embarked on a multi-billion dollar highway building spree.  And that’s just the beginning, because these projects have almost invariably gone over budget, and more expansions (a wider I-205 on either side of the Abernethy Bridge, and plans to widen the I-5 Boone Bridge) will generate even more debt and traffic.

The math doesn’t add up. Oregon’s adopted climate plans explicitly call for a 10% reduction in aggregate vehicle miles traveled (VMT). You cannot achieve a 10% reduction while building projects predicated on a 25% increase in driving.  Planning for all of these project’s is predicated on models that call for driving to go up, when state policy insists that driving will go down.

Four years ago, a New York Times story asked the question, “Can Portland be a climate leader without reducing driving?”  The Oregon Department of Transportation is still answering that question with an emphatic “No.”  In the face of increasing driving and greenhouse gas emissions, its planning a multi-billion dollar series of highway expansion projects that will only further increase greenhouse gas emissions.  That’s how they really celebrate Earth Day..

The New York Times, April 22, 2022

The Oregon Department of Transportation’s  plans to squander billions of dollars widening area highways plainly undermines State, regional, and city commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  Driving is the single largest source of climate pollution in Portland, and it has grown 20 percent, by more than a million tons per year, in the past five years.

Betraying Portland’s Legacy of Environmental Leadership

Five decades after the city earned national recognition for tearing out a downtown freeway, it gets ready to build more. Back in the day, Portland built its environmental cred by tearing out one downtown freeway, and cancelling another–and then taking the money it saved to build the first leg of its light rail system. In place of pavement and pollution, it put up parks. Portland made choice to remove the Harbor Drive freeway that blighted the city’s waterfront, and replace it with a beautiful and widely used park.

For decades, city and state political leaders have celebrated this legacy, and proudly touted our environmental leadership based on these bold and far-sighted steps. It is bitterly ironic, and tragic, that half a century after proving that removing freeways promotes livability, economic vitality and thriving cities, Oregon is now embarking on an unprecedented huge expansion of highway capacity, and exactly the time the climate crisis has come plainly into view.

 

Portland was  smart enough to stop building freeways half a century ago, when environmentalism was in its infancy, and the prospects of climate change were not nearly so evident. Why aren’t we smart enough to do the same today?

Happy Earth Day, or actually Groundhog Day, everyone.  We’ve squandered another year, and a planning to squander billions in the face of a growing crisis.  Let’s all be ready for yet another long hot, smoky summer as we endure the increasingly obvious and unavoidable effects of climate change.  See you next year.

 

 

 

Belts of Green in the Washington Suburbs

A straight-down view of Greenbelt is centered on a square park, with smaller green spaces weaving through surrounding homes, businesses, a college campus, and government buildings.
July 30, 2023

Beyond the border of Washington, D.C., numerous suburbs spread across Virginia and Maryland. Many are accessible from the Capital Beltway (I-495), the highway that encircles Washington. An astronaut on the International Space Station captured this photo of the beltway’s northeast side where it passes through the historic city of Greenbelt, Maryland. 

The photo was taken on July 30, 2023, a time of year when the region’s vegetation is lush and green. One of the more prominent green spaces in this image is Greenbelt Park. The park’s nearly 5 square kilometers (2 square miles) contain forested hiking trails, several picnic areas, and a campground. The land was once intended as a future extension of the city of Greenbelt, but it was acquired by the National Park Service in 1950.

Just north of the park, Greenbelt’s historic district is laid out in a crescent shape. The district is one of three planned communities that arose in the 1930s as part of the New Deal program, intended to provide work for the unemployed and to create affordable cooperative housing with accessible green space. Homes connect to walking paths, which in turn connect to one of the country’s oldest planned shopping centers.

A collection of buildings east of the beltway is NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, established in Greenbelt on May 1, 1959, as NASA’s first spaceflight complex. Several patches of forested land separate some of the buildings. The large green spaces north of Goddard are a mix of forested land and agricultural fields in the town of Beltsville, which include University of Maryland and USDA agricultural research sites. The main campus of the University of Maryland is visible just west of Greenbelt in College Park.

Other nearby tree-lined areas are visible as well. For instance, Hyattsville, just south of College Park, has been recognized as a “tree city” for more than three decades. In addition, trees line a large segment of the Baltimore-Washington Parkway (MD-295), which runs north-south between Baltimore and Washington and bisects Greenbelt Park.  

Astronaut photograph ISS069-E-39302 was acquired on July 30, 2023, with a Nikon D5 digital camera using a focal length of 1150 millimeters. It was provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA Johnson Space Center. The image was taken by a member of the Expedition 69 crew. The image has been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

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The post Belts of Green in the Washington Suburbs appeared first on NASA Science.

Technological unemployment in Victorian Britain

We do not know whether technological unemployment swept across England in the wake of the British Industrial Revolution. In this paper, I propose an approach to quantify jobs lost to, and created by, creative destruction in the 19th century. Using over 170 million individual records from the full-count British census (1851–1911), I generate sub-industry “task” level occupational data. I apply this to the English bootmaking industry as it mechanized. The new data reveal sharp structural changes: 152,000 artisanal jobs disappeared as skills became obsolete, while 144,000 new jobs emerged. However, incumbent bootmakers were rarely displaced. Instead, the decline was driven by young men no longer entering the artisanal trade. These findings challenge assumptions about displacement, showing how slow adoption and persistent demand can shield existing workers, while opportunities vanish for new entrants.

That is a recent paper by Hillary Vipond, a recent PhD from LSE.  Via Lukas Freund.  Here are other papers by Hillary, some of them on what we can learn about automation from economic history.  Here is Hillary on Twitter.

The post Technological unemployment in Victorian Britain appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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DF T-Shirts and Hoodies: Get Them While the Getting Is Good

Thumbnail of a heather black Daring Fireball logo hoodie.

Daring Fireball t-shirts and hoodies are back. Order now, and we’ll start printing shirts at the end of this week and shipping them out next week. The hoodies are a new model from Bella Canvas, the manufacturer. Our previous hoodies were “heather gray” and the fabric was a blend of 50% polyester, 37.5% cotton, and 12.5% rayon. That model is being phased out. So we’ve switched to a new model that’s 85% cotton, 15% polyester, and a darker “heather black” color. The old ones were good, but the new ones feel even better.

 ★ 

Multiple Days of Severe Weather from Thunderstorms and Wildfires