The mainstream view

Multiple studies have either shown that smartphone and social media use among teens has minimal effects on their mental health or none at all. As a 2024 review published by an American Psychological Association journal put it: “There is no evidence that time spent on social media is correlated with adolescent mental health problems.”

And this:

Advocates of bans compare social media to alcohol or tobacco, where the harms are indisputable and the benefits are minimal. But the internet, including social media, is more analogous to books, magazines or television. I may not want my sons watching “The Texas Chain Saw Massacre” or reading “Fifty Shades of Grey,” but it would be crazy to ban books and films for kids altogether.

But that is the nature of these social media bans. Australia’s law not only restricted access to platforms such as Instagram and TikTok but also banned kids under 16 from having YouTube, X and Reddit accounts. Even Substack had to modify its practices.

Here is more from the excellent Sam Bowman.  And many teens make money through “digital side hustles,” in this day and age that is what a teenage job often means.

The post The mainstream view appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

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Wednesday assorted links

1. “Australian abattoirs are adopting AI to count sheep, allowing farmers and processors to sleep more easily at night after decades of rows over miscounts stoked distrust in the outback.” (FT)

2. Richard Ngo on educational signaling theories.

3. “There is no secular alternative. There has never been one.

4. Should the buses be free?

5. Dominicans vs. Franciscans.

6. Africa fact of the day.

7. Is Europe’s problem labor law?

8. Arbitrage in Singaporean aunties? The country is getting more interesting again.

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Perseverance Pinpoints Its Location at ‘Mala Mala’

2 Min Read

Perseverance Pinpoints Its Location at ‘Mala Mala’

This panorama from Perseverance is composed of five stereo pairs of navigation camera images that the rover matched to orbital imagery in order to pinpoint its position on Feb. 2, 2026, using a technology called Mars Global Localization.
PIA26704
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Description

Using its navigation cameras, NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover captured the five stereo pairs of images that make up this panorama on Feb. 2, 2026, the 1,762nd day, or sol, of the mission. A new technology called Mars Global Localization matched this 360-degree view to onboard orbital imagery from the agency’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), enabling the rover to pinpoint its location on the Red Planet for the first time without human help. The rover is in a relatively featureless area dubbed “Mala Mala” on the rim of Jezero Crater.

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory developed Mars Global Localization, which features an algorithm that rapidly compares panoramic navcam shots to MRO orbital imagery. Running on a powerful processor that Perseverance originally used to communicate with the now-retired Ingenuity Mars Helicopter, the algorithm takes about two minutes to pinpoint the rover’s location within some 10 inches (25 centimeters).  

Like NASA’s previous Mars rovers, Perseverance tracks its position using what’s called visual odometry, analyzing geologic features in camera images taken every few feet while accounting for wheel slippage. As tiny errors in the process add up over the course of each drive, the rover becomes increasingly unsure about its exact location. On long drives, the rover’s sense of its position can be off by than 100 feet (up to 35 meters). Believing it could be too close to hazardous terrain, the rover may prematurely end its drive and wait for instructions from Earth.

After each drive comes to a halt, the rover sends a 360-degree panorama to Earth, where mapping experts match the imagery with shots from MRO. The team then sends the rover its location and instructions for its next drive. That process can take a day or more. With Mars Global Localization, the rover can compare the images itself, determine its location, and roll ahead on its pre-planned route.

Managed for NASA by Caltech, JPL built and manages operations of the Perseverance rover. JPL also manages MRO for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington as part of its Mars Exploration Program portfolio.

The post Perseverance Pinpoints Its Location at ‘Mala Mala’ appeared first on NASA Science.

Mars Global Localization Pinpoints Perseverance’s Location

3 Min Read

Mars Global Localization Pinpoints Perseverance’s Location

The new technology called Mars Global Localization enables NASA’s Perseverance to pinpoint is location using an onboard algorithm that matches terrain features in navigation camera shots (the circular image, called an orthomosaic) to those in orbital imagery (the background).
PIA26705
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Description

These images were part of the first successful use of a new technology called Mars Global Localization, developed at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Using its navigation cameras, NASA’s Perseverance captured a 360-degree view of the surrounding terrain that was matched to orbital imagery, enabling the rover to pinpoint its location on Mars on Feb. 2, 2026, the 1,762nd day, or sol, of the mission. The navcam images were turned into an overhead view called an orthomosaic, forming a circle around the rover. In this animation, the orthomosaic is superimposed on the imagery from NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Contrast and hue have been enhanced to increase visibility of terrain features, which align in the ground and orbital imagery. 

The rover took the five stereo pairs of navcam images in this relatively featureless location, dubbed “Mala Mala,” an area on the rim of Jezero Crater. The blank area in the upper right of the orthomosaic is where the back of the rover blocked the cameras’ view of the surrounding landscape.

Mars Global Localization features an algorithm that rapidly compares panoramic navcam shots to MRO orbital imagery. Running on a powerful processor that Perseverance originally used to communicate with the now-retired Ingenuity Mars Helicopter, the algorithm takes about two minutes to pinpoint the rover’s location to within some 10 inches (25 centimeters). 

Like NASA’s previous Mars rovers, Perseverance tracks its position using what’s called visual odometry, analyzing geologic features in camera images taken every few feet while accounting for wheel slippage. As tiny errors in the process add up over the course of each drive, the rover becomes increasingly unsure about its exact location. On long drives, the rover’s sense of its position can be off by more than 100 feet (up to 35 meters). Believing it could be too close to hazardous terrain, Perseverance may prematurely end its drive and wait for instructions from Earth.

After each drive comes to a halt, the rover sends a 360-degree panorama to Earth, where mapping experts match the imagery with shots from MRO. The team then sends the rover its location and instructions for its next drive. That process can take a day or more, but with Mars Global Localization, the rover can compare the images itself, determine its location, and roll ahead on its pre-planned route.

Managed for NASA by Caltech, JPL built and manages operations of the Perseverance rover. JPL also manages MRO for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington as part of its Mars Exploration Program portfolio.

The post Mars Global Localization Pinpoints Perseverance’s Location appeared first on NASA Science.

The Economy of Illusion: How Digital Platforms Turn Attention into Profit

In today’s digital landscape, attention is no longer just a byproduct of entertainment — it is the foundation of an entire economic model. Platforms compete not only for money but for time, focus, and emotional engagement. For players in the Netherlands, where online gaming is regulated and increasingly sophisticated, understanding how attention-driven platforms operate is essential for making informed decisions.

Online gaming environments are carefully designed ecosystems. Every visual element, bonus offer, and game mechanic exists for a reason. The goal is not manipulation — it is engagement. The longer users stay, the more value is created. When structured responsibly, this system benefits both the platform and the player.

Attention as a Digital Asset

In traditional markets, physical goods generate revenue. In digital entertainment, attention performs that role. Every click, every round played, and every interaction contributes to measurable engagement.

Gaming platforms rely on:

  • Personalized recommendations
  • Structured bonus systems
  • Tiered loyalty rewards
  • Smooth user interface design

For Dutch players, clarity is particularly important. The Netherlands has strict regulatory oversight to ensure that gaming remains transparent and fair. This means reputable platforms must clearly communicate terms, wagering requirements, and responsible gaming policies.

When users choose a trusted gaming environment, they are not simply selecting games — they are entering a structured digital economy.

The Psychology Behind Engagement

Digital gaming platforms are built on principles drawn from behavioral economics. Variable rewards, progression systems, and milestone achievements create momentum. These elements are not random; they are designed to keep the experience dynamic and immersive.

However, there is an important distinction between engagement and excess. Responsible platforms understand this difference. Clear limits, transparent bonus structures, and accessible account controls help maintain balance.

This is where platform reputation becomes critical. WBETZ Casino betting games and casino bonuses are structured to provide excitement while clearly outlining participation rules. Players can access detailed information before activating promotions, ensuring they understand wagering conditions and payout terms.

How Revenue Models Work in Online Gaming

Revenue in digital gaming does not come from illusion — it comes from volume and participation. When players engage with games, place bets, or activate bonuses, the platform earns through predefined mathematical models.

Game Return Percentages

Every licensed game has a return-to-player percentage. This figure defines the theoretical payout over time. Transparent platforms disclose this information or make it accessible through providers.

Bonus Mechanics

Bonuses are marketing tools, but they are also structured contracts. Wagering requirements, eligible games, and maximum withdrawal limits determine how bonuses function in practice.

Player Retention Systems

Loyalty programs reward consistent engagement. These systems create value for regular players without forcing participation.

For Dutch users, selecting a platform that communicates these mechanisms clearly reduces uncertainty and enhances trust.

Responsible Engagement in the Netherlands

The Dutch gaming market emphasizes consumer protection. Players are encouraged to choose platforms that prioritize:

  • Identity verification
  • Deposit limits
  • Self-exclusion tools
  • Transparent terms and conditions

Accessing structured betting games, casino promotions, and bonus programs through https://wbetz1.com allows users to explore a digital gaming environment designed with clarity in mind. Clear navigation, defined bonus conditions, and accessible support channels are essential components of responsible engagement.

The Balance Between Entertainment and Strategy

Digital platforms succeed because they create immersive experiences. But smart players approach gaming strategically. That includes:

  • Reading bonus terms before activation
  • Setting personal spending limits
  • Understanding game volatility
  • Taking breaks when necessary

WBETZ Casino betting games, online slots, and bonus offers are structured to support controlled participation. Clear wagering terms and defined promotional mechanics allow players to make informed decisions while enjoying competitive gameplay.

The economy of attention works best when users remain conscious participants rather than passive consumers. Awareness transforms engagement into controlled entertainment.

Why Transparency Builds Long-Term Value

In a regulated market like the Netherlands, trust is currency. Platforms that invest in transparent communication, fair game providers, and responsible gaming policies build sustainable player relationships.

Short-term incentives attract users, but clarity retains them. When wagering requirements are clearly explained, when withdrawal processes are straightforward, and when support is responsive, players feel confident returning.

Digital gaming is not simply about winning or losing. It is about the structure surrounding the experience. A well-designed platform aligns business goals with player satisfaction.

The true economy of illusion is not about deception — it is about perception. Platforms create environments that feel dynamic, exciting, and rewarding. The responsibility lies in ensuring that this perception is grounded in fairness and clarity.

For Dutch players seeking structured betting entertainment, understanding how attention becomes profit is not a warning — it is a tool. When you know how the system works, you can participate on your own terms.


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From Entertainment to Dependency: Digital Mechanics That Keep Players Engaged

Online casinos in the Netherlands have changed significantly in recent years. What once required a visit to a physical venue is now available on a smartphone within seconds. Players can access slots, table games, and betting markets at any time of day. Convenience has become standard. Speed is expected.

Behind this simplicity, however, stands a carefully structured digital environment. Modern gaming platforms are not random collections of games. They are technology-driven systems designed to capture and retain attention. For most users, this simply results in longer sessions. For some, the boundary between leisure and excessive play may gradually shift.

Why Digital Games Feel So Engaging

Unpredictability is the core driver of engagement. Wins do not arrive on a fixed schedule, and that uncertainty strengthens anticipation. Behavioral psychology has long demonstrated that variable rewards create stronger repetition patterns than predictable outcomes.

In real-money gaming, this effect becomes more intense. The combination of financial risk, emotional anticipation, and instant results increases stimulation.

Across online casinos, including BOF Casino, the experience is built around speed and convenience: quick access to games, seamless navigation, and immediate feedback that can make it easier to stay engaged longer than intended.

Design Elements That Extend Playing Time

Online platforms remove almost every delay between decision and action. Registration takes minutes. Deposits are processed quickly. Games launch without interruption. When friction is minimized, continuing to play requires little effort.

Fast Game Cycles

Many modern slots and table games are structured around short rounds. Players can place multiple bets within a brief period. Immediate feedback keeps attention focused and reduces pauses that might otherwise interrupt the session.

The Near-Win Effect

When symbols stop just one position away from a major payout, the experience can feel surprisingly intense. Near wins often generate emotional responses that encourage another attempt. The visual and audio elements built into digital games amplify this sensation.

Bonus Offers and Promotions

Welcome bonuses, reload incentives, and loyalty programs are standard across the industry. At BOF Casino, players encounter promotional offers as part of the overall gaming experience. Such incentives can extend playtime and add variety to sessions, but they work best when approached with clear expectations and a defined budget. Reviewing wagering conditions before participating helps players stay in control of their spending.

Exploring Game Variety and Platform Experience

Modern online casino platforms focus on intuitive navigation and quick access to games. A well-structured interface allows players to switch between slots, table games, and betting options without interruption.

When browsing casino games, betting markets, and promotional opportunities at https://bofcasino1.com, users experience a streamlined layout designed for fast interaction. Smooth transitions between sections and rapid loading times contribute to immersion, which is why monitoring session length remains important.

Personalization and Algorithmic Influence

Digital platforms rely on data to adapt content to user preferences. If a player regularly selects certain slot themes or betting markets, similar options may appear more prominently.

Personalization improves convenience and relevance. At the same time, it can increase session length by consistently presenting appealing choices without requiring active searching.

Responsible Gambling in the Netherlands

The Dutch regulatory framework requires licensed operators to implement protective tools. These measures are not optional; they are part of operating legally within the market.

Players can set deposit limits, receive session time reminders, and activate self-exclusion if necessary. Such tools are designed to support balanced participation, even within highly engaging environments.

Recognizing the Turning Point

Extended play does not automatically indicate a problem. Many individuals participate occasionally and responsibly. However, certain patterns deserve attention: increasing stakes after losses, ignoring preset limits, or playing primarily to manage stress.

Awareness of these behaviors makes a difference. Understanding how rapid game cycles, promotional incentives, and near-win effects function allows players to make more deliberate decisions.

Digital casino platforms are designed to feel effortless. That is why it helps to bring your own structure into the session. Setting a personal budget before you start, deciding how long you want to play, and taking short breaks can prevent the experience from turning into autopilot.

If you notice that you are increasing stakes after losses, extending sessions “just a little longer,” or playing mainly to escape stress, it may be a sign to pause and reset your approach.


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Omacon comes to New York

The vibes around Linux are changing fast. Companies of all shapes and sizes are paying fresh attention. The hardware game on x86 is rapidly improving. And thanks to OpenCode and Claude Code, terminal user interfaces (TUIs) are suddenly everywhere. It's all this and Omarchy that we'll be celebrating in New York City on April 10 at the Shopify SoHo Space for the first OMACON!

We've got an incredible lineup of speakers coming. The creator of Hyprland, Vaxry, will be there. Along with ThePrimeagen and TJ DeVries. You'll see OpenCode creator Dax Raad. Omarchy power contributors Ryan Hughes and Bjarne Øverli. As well as Chris Powers (Typecraft) and myself as Linux superfans. All packed into a single day of short sessions, plenty of mingle time, and some good food.

Tickets go on sale tomorrow (February 19) at 10am EST. We only have room for 130 attendees total, so I imagine the offered-at-cost $299 tickets will go quickly. But if you can't manage to snatch a ticket in time, we'll also be recording everything, so you won't be left out entirely.

But there is just something special about being together in person about a shared passion. I've felt the intensity of that three years in a row now with Rails World. There's an endless amount of information and instruction available online, but a sense of community and connection is far more scarce. We nerds need this.

We also need people to JUST DO THINGS. Like kick off a fresh Linux distribution together with over three hundred contributors so far all leaning boldly into aesthetics, ergonomics, and that omakase spirit. 

Omarchy only came about last summer, now we're seeing 50,000 ISO downloads a week, 30,000 people on the Discord, and now our very first exclusive gathering in New York City. This is open source at its best. People from all over, coming together, making cool shit.

(Oh, and thanks to Shopify and Tobi for hosting. You gotta love when a hundred-plus billion dollar company like this is run by an uber nerd who can just sign off on doing something fun and cool for the community without any direct plausible payback.)

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How did we end up threatening our kids’ lives with AI?

I have to begin by warning you about the content in this piece; while I won’t be dwelling on any specifics, this will necessarily be a broad discussion about some of the most disturbing topics imaginable. I resent that I have to give you that warning, but I’m forced to because of the choices that the Big AI companies have made that affect children. I don’t say this lightly. But this is the point we must reckon with if we are having an honest conversation about contemporary technology.

Let me get the worst of it out of the way right up front, and then we can move on to understanding how this happened. ChatGPT has repeatedly produced output that encouraged and incited children to end their own lives. Grok’s AI generates sexualized imagery of children, which the company makes available commercially to paid subscribers.

It used to be that encouraging children to self-harm, or producing sexualized imagery of children, were universally agreed upon as being amongst the worst things one could do in society. These were among the rare truly non-partisan, unifying moral agreements that transcended all social and cultural barriers. And now, some of the world’s biggest and most powerful companies, led by a few of the wealthiest and most powerful men who have ever lived, are violating these rules, for profit, and not only is there little public uproar, it seems as if very few have even noticed.

How did we get here?

The ideas behind a crisis

A perfect storm of factors have combined to lead us towards the worst case scenario for AI. There is now an entire market of commercial products that attack our children, and to understand why, we need to look at the mindset of the people who are creating those products. Here are some of the key motivations that drove them to this point.

1. Everyone feels desperately behind and wants to catch up

There’s an old adage from Intel’s founder Andy Grove that people in Silicon Valley used to love to quote: “Only the paranoid survive”. This attitude persists, with leaders absolutely convinced that everything is a zero-sum game, and any perceived success by another company is an existential threat to one’s own future.

At Google, the company’s researchers had published the fundamental paper underlying the creation of LLMs in 2017, but hadn’t capitalized on that invention by making a successful consumer product by 2022, when OpenAI released ChatGPT. Within Google leadership (and amongst the big tech tycoons), the fact that OpenAI was able to have a hit product with this technology was seen as a grave failure by Google, despite the fact that even OpenAI’s own leadership hadn’t expected ChatGPT to be a big hit upon launch. A crisis ensued within Google in the months that followed.

These kinds of industry narratives have more weight than reality in driving decision-making and investment, and the refrain of “move fast and break things” is still burned into people’s heads, so the end result these days is that shipping any product is okay, as long as it helps you catch up to your competitor. Thus, since Grok is seriously behind its competitors in usage, and of course Grok's CEO Elon Musk is always desperate for attention, they have every incentive to ship a product with a catastrophically toxic design — including one that creates abusive imagery.

2. Accountability is “woke” and must be crushed

Another fundamental article of faith in the last decade amongst tech tycoons (and their fanboys) is that woke culture must be destroyed. They have an amorphous and ever-evolving definition of what “woke” means, but it always includes any measures of accountability. One key example is the trust and safety teams that had been trying to keep all of the major technology platforms from committing the worst harms that their products were capable of producing.

Here, again, Google provides us with useful context. The company had one of the most mature and experienced AI safety research teams in the world at the time when the first paper on the transformer model (LLMs) was published. Right around the time that paper was published, Google also saw one of its engineers publish a sexist screed on gender essentialism designed to bait the company into becoming part of the culture war, which it ham-handedly stumbled directly into. Like so much of Silicon Valley, Google’s leadership did not understand that these campaigns are always attempts to game the refs, and they let themselves be played by these bad actors; within a few years, a backlash had built and they began cutting everyone who had warned about risks around the new AI platforms, including some of the most credible and respected voices in the industry on these issues.

Eliminating those roles was considered vital because these people were blamed for having “slowed down” the company with their silly concerns about things like people’s lives, or the health of the world’s information ecosystem. A lot of the wealthy execs across the industry were absolutely convinced that the reason Google had ended up behind in AI, despite having invented LLMs, was because they had too many “woke” employees, and those employees were too worried about esoteric concerns like people’s well-being.

It does not ever enter the conversation that 1. executives are accountable for the failures that happen at a company, 2. Google had a million other failures during these same years (including those countless redundant messaging apps they kept launching!) that may have had far more to do with their inability to seize the market opportunity and 3. it may be a good thing that Google didn’t rush to market with a product that tells children to harm themselves, and those workers who ended up being fired may have saved Google from that fate!

3. Product managers are veterans of genocidal regimes

The third fact that enabled the creation of pernicious AI products is more subtle, but has more wide-ranging implications once we face it. In the tech industry, product managers are often quietly amongst the most influential figures in determining the influence a company has on culture. (At least until all the product managers are replaced by an LLM being run by their CEO.) At their best, product managers are the people who decide exactly what features and functionality go into a product, synthesizing and coordinating between the disciplines of engineering, marketing, sales, support, research, design, and many other specialties. I’m a product person, so I have a lot of empathy for the challenges of the role, and a healthy respect for the power it can often hold.

But in today’s Silicon Valley, a huge number of the people who act as product managers spent the formative years of their careers in companies like Facebook (now Meta). If those PMs now work at OpenAI, then the moments when they were learning how to practice their craft were spent at a company that made products that directly enabled and accelerated a genocide. That’s not according to me, that’s the opinion of multiple respected international human rights organizations. If you chose to go work at Facebook after the Rohingya genocide had happened, then you were certainly not going to learn from your manager that you should not make products that encourage or incite people to commit violence.

Even when they’re not enabling the worst things in the world, product managers who spend time in these cultures learn more destructive habits, like strategic line-stepping. This is the habit of repeatedly violating their own policies on things like privacy and security, or allowing users to violate platform policies on things like abuse and harassment. This tactic is followed by then feigning surprise when the behavior is caught. After sending out an obligatory apology, they repeat the behavior again a few more times until everyone either gets so used to it that they stop complaining or the continued bad actions drives off the good people, which makes it seem to the media or outside observers that the problem has gone away. Then, they amend their terms of service to say that the formerly-disallowed behavior is now permissible, so that in the future they can say, “See? It doesn’t violate our policy.”

Because so many people in the industry now have these kind of credential on their LinkedIn profiles, their peers can’t easily mention many kinds of ethical concerns when designing a product without implicitly condemning their coworkers. This becomes even more fraught when someone might potentially be unknowingly offending one of their leaders. As a result, it becomes a race to the bottom, where the person with the worst ethical standards on the team determines the standards to which everyone designs their work. As a result, if the prevailing sentiment about creating products at a company is that having millions of users just inevitably means killing some of them (“you’ve got to break a few eggs to make an omelet”), there can be risk to contradicting that idea. Pointing out that, in fact, most platforms on the internet do not harm users in these ways and their creators work very hard to ensure that tech products don’t present a risk to their communities, can end up being a career-limiting move.

4. Compensation is tied to feature adoption

This is a more subtle point, but explains a lot of the incentives and motivations behind so much of what happens with today’s major technology platforms. The introduction or rollout of new capabilities is measured when these companies launch new features, and the success of those rollouts or launches are often tied to the measurements of individual performance for the people who were responsible for those features. These will be measured using metrics like “KPIs” (key performance indicators) or other similar corporate acronyms, all of which basically represent the concept of being rewarded for whether the thing you made was adopted by users in the real world. In the abstract, it makes sense to reward employees based on whether the things they create actually succeed in the market, so that their work is aligned with whatever makes the company succeed.

In practice, people’s incentives and motivations get incredibly distorted over time by these kinds of gamified systems being used to measure their work, especially as it becomes a larger and larger part of their compensation. If you’ve ever wondered why some intrusive AI feature that you never asked for is jumping in front of your cursor when you’re just trying to do a normal task the same way that you’ve been doing it for years, it’s because someone’s KPI was measuring whether you were going to click on that AI button. Much of the time, the system doesn’t distinguish between “I accidentally clicked on this feature while trying to get rid of it” and “I enthusiastically chose to click on this button”. This is what I mean when I say we need an internet of consent.

But you see the grim end game of this kind of thinking, and these kinds of reward systems, when kids’ well-being is on the line. Someone’s compensation may well be tied to a metric or measurement of “how many people used the image generation feature?” without regard to whether that feature was being used to generate imagery of children without consent. Getting a user addicted to a product, even to the point where they’re getting positive reinforcement when discussing the most self-destructive behaviors, will show up in a measurement system as increased engagement — exactly the kind of behavior that most compensation systems reward employees for producing.

5. Their cronies have made it impossible to regulate them

A strange reality of the United States’ sad decline into authoritarianism is that it is presently impossible to create federal regulation to stop the harms that these large AI platforms are causing. Most Americans are not familiar with this level of corruption and crony capitalism, but Trump’s AI Czar David Sacks has an unbelievably broad number of conflicts of interest from his investments across the AI spectrum; it’s impossible to know how many because nobody in the Trump administration follows even the basic legal requirements around disclosure or disinvestment, and the entire corrupt Republican Party in Congress refuses to do their constitutionally-required duty to hold the executive branch accountable for these failures.

As a result, at the behest of the most venal power brokers in Silicon Valley, the Trump administration is insisting on trying to stop all AI regulations at the state level, and of course will have the collusion of the captive Supreme Court to assist in this endeavor. Because they regularly have completely unaccountable and unrecorded conversations, the leaders of the Big AI companies (all of whom attended the Inauguration of this President and support the rampant lawbreaking of this administration with rewards like open bribery) know that there will be no constraints on the products that they launch, and no punishments or accountability if those products cause harm.

All of the pertinent regulatory bodies, from the Federal Trade Commission to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau have had their competent leadership replaced by Trump cronies as well, meaning that their agendas are captured and they will not be able to protect citizens from these companies, either.

There will, of course, still be attempts at accountability at the state and local level, and these will wind their way through the courts over time. But the harms will continue in the meantime. And there will be attempts to push back on the international level, both from regulators overseas, and increasingly by governments and consumers outside the United States refusing to use technologies developed in this country. But again, these remedies will take time to mature, and in the meantime, children will still be in harm’s way.

What about the kids?

It used to be such a trope of political campaigns and social movements to say “what about the children?” that it is almost beyond parody. I personally have mocked the phrase because it’s so often deployed in bad faith, to short-circuit complicated topics and suppress debate. But this is that rare circumstance where things are actually not that complicated. Simply discussing the reality of what these products do should be enough.

People will say, “but it’s inevitable! These products will just have these problems sometimes!” And that is simply false. There are already products on the market that don’t have these egregious moral failings. More to the point, even if it were true that these products couldn’t exist without killing or harming children — then that’s a reason not to ship them at all.

If it is, indeed absolutely unavoidable that, for example, ChatGPT has to advocate violence, then let’s simply attach a rule in the code that modifies it to change the object of the violence to be Sam Altman. Or your boss. I suspect that if, suddenly, the chatbot deployed to every laptop at your company had a chance of suggesting that people cause bodily harm to your CEO, people would suddenly figure out a way to fix that bug. But somehow when it makes that suggestion about your 12-year-old, this is an insurmountably complex challenge.

We can expect things to get worse before they get better. OpenAI has already announced that it is going to be allowing people to generate sexual content on its service for a fee later this year. To their credit, when doing so, they stated their policy prohibiting the use of the service to generate images that sexualize children. But the service they’re using to ensure compliance, Thorn, whose product is meant to help protect against such content, was conspicuously silent about Musk’s recent foray into generating sexualized imagery of children. An organization whose entire purpose is preventing this kind of material, where every public message they have put out is decrying this content, somehow falls mute when the world’s richest man carries out the most blatant launch of this capability ever? If even the watchdogs have lost their voice, how are regular people supposed to feel like they have a chance at fighting back?

And then, if no one is reining in OpenAI, and they have to keep up with their competitors, and the competition isn’t worried about silly concerns like ethics, and the other platforms are selling child exploitation material, and all of the product mangers are Meta alumni who know that they can just keep gaming the terms of service if they need to, and laws aren’t being enforced, and all the product managers making the product learned to make decisions while they were at Meta… well, will you be surprised?

How do we move forward?

It should be an industry-stopping scandal that this is the current state of two of the biggest players in the most-hyped, most-funded, most consequential area of the entire business world right now. It should be unfathomable that people are thinking about deploying these technologies in their businesses — in their schools! — or integrating these products into their own platforms. And yet I would bet that the vast majority of people using these products have no idea about these risks or realities of these platforms at all. Even the vast majority of people who work in tech probably are barely aware.

What’s worse is, the majority of people I’ve talked to in tech, who do know about this have not taken a single action about it. Not one.

I’ll be following up with an entire list of suggestions about actions we can take, and ways we can push for accountability for the bad actors who are endangering kids every day. In the meantime, reflect for yourself about this reality. Who will you share this information with? How will this change your view of what these companies are? How will this change the way you make decisions about using these products? Now that you know: what will you do?

Protocolized Writing Workshop

As you may know, I’m one of the editors of the year-old Protocolized magazine. I’ll be helping run an online writing workshop for it this weekend (Friday/Saturday) and I’d like to invite those of you with writing interests to join. Read on for details and some reflections.

It will be a T-shaped workshop: Broad horizontal coverage of writing magazine-style longform fiction and nonfiction for the 2026 zeitgeist, especially in AI-forward ways, and deep vertical coverage of protocol fiction and nonfiction in particular, which have their own emerging genre logics and grammars. It should be of interest to all writers who like to be on the bleeding edge of text as a medium, whether or not you want to write on protocolish themes.

If the anti-AI Butlerian jihad crazies haven’t gotten to you yet, join us on the Dark Side and get ready to fire ze slop cannons.

Our goal is to both contribute to the broader writing and publishing knowledge commons on the emerging publishing frontier, and to cultivate our own network of contributors. The workshop is free, and we hope to find at least a few new talented voices to join our growing community of contributors.

Workshop Details

The Protocolized writing workshop will be four online sessions: two 60-minute sessions on Friday 20th, and two 90-minute sessions on Saturday 21st, at 9AM and 3PM on both days. A screenshot of the agenda is below. Don’t miss the first session — it might sound specialized, but it’s actually going to be a fascinating case study on how to bootstrap a publication in 2026. At least Year 1 of such bootstrapping:

We’ve already run several in-person writing workshops over the last year, but this will be our first time running one online for a general audience.

Editing Protocolized has been one of the most interesting writing and editing adventures I’ve ever been part of. Not only are we trying to catalyze fiction and nonfiction around a whole new field we’re trying to meme into existence (Protocol Studies), we made the decision right at the beginning to be aggressively AI-positive, and actively encourage contributors to use AI and get good at it. And we don’t expect anyone to do this by themselves — we have an active writing Special Interest Group (SIG) going in our Discord, with regular calls and an active channel, and a pitching forum where others can help you refine your ideas and pitches.

We’ve now logged a year of experience on what genuinely feels like a new frontier of publishing, in terms of both form and content. We’ve published contributions from 34 writers, and produced 3 fiction anthologies. And our nonfiction pipeline is starting to ramp.

I can’t reveal much about our cunning plans right now, but 2026 is going to be a big year for us. Starting with this writing workshop.

Our three anthologies (privately distributed; public editions coming soon)

will be leading the workshop overall, and running the two Friday sessions. will lead the fiction workshop on Saturday. I’ll be around for all the sessions, and leading the last session, on nonfiction (a 2026 development priority for us).

The Friday sessions are open to all, but the Saturday sessions have limited capacity and require our approval, so sign up early if interested.

Perk: If you make it through the whole workshop and submit a serious pitch to Protocolized, we’ll send you a copy of one of the anthologies. Offer open while supplies last etc.

For my session, I plan to do a compressed version of my long-running Art of Longform course (which I taught live in 2017 and have offered self-serve since then), heavily updated for the post-blogosphere era of permaweird zeitgeist, AI tools, Substack thudposts, fancy bespoke sites, Claude Code self-publishing gigafactories and so on.

This workshop is actually a good excuse for me to update that material, which is getting a little dated, even though it was meant to teach timeless aspects of writing longform (I have learned to use the word “timeless” more carefully in the decade since). So if you attend this session, you’ll get a first look at a possible future edition of the Art of Longform.

Personal Note

Like most people in my various circles, I’ve been going a little nuts with Claude Code over the last week or so, and I’m now busy refactoring all my writing and publishing plans around AI capabilities. The twitter book I released in my last post was just the tip of an iceberg.

I’ve basically set up a kind of self-publishing factory to accelerate my plans to turn a lot of my archival material into book form at warp-speed, and my plans for future books (which I have to actually write) to at least full-impulse speed.

It’s becoming clear that I’m going to be able to actually focus on book-length projects properly if I use AI aggressively. Not just for the self-publishing pipeline and administrative support larger projects need, but for getting my head into the book-length game properly, since my natural, non-transhuman length is essay-length. I plan to use AI as both an administrative and research assistant, as well as a writing collaborator. My last year of sloptraptions experiments have convinced me this is not only possible, but the results will be better than if I tried to write my planned books entirely by myself.

I now have two levels of dashboards going 😬. There’s a dashboard of books in the pipeline that currently shows 34 planned volumes, from both archival material and planned new writing…

…And there’s a dashboard of bookification projects specifically for the ribbonfarm archive (as well as a migration project to move it to a museum-like archival site):

I saw this cartoon after I did all this, so it was doubly funny.

If this cunning Bond villain grade plan works out, I may be able to publish at least a couple of dozen books over the next few years. Probably 80% based on archival material, 20% new-material books.

I’ll be covering this emerging factory-grade self-publishing DevOps style automation craziness a bit in my nonfiction module of the workshop. I have high confidence now that this scaffolding will work. The biggest risk factor now is not the technology (bluntly: it works) but me, since good AI scaffolding removes all other bottlenecks and praxis frictions.

Anyhow, hope to see some of you at the workshop. Here’s the registration link again.

China is killing the fish

Photo by Asc1733 via Wikimedia Commons

Unfortunately, I have another thing for you to worry about.

There are three types of environmental harm. The first kind is local — think air pollution and water pollution. This kind of activity hurts people who are geographically close by — when factories dump crap in the water, it’s local communities who get cancer, and so on. This kind of local pollution is typically solved by a local or national government, using things like regulation, pollution markets, and so on.

In fact, humanity has a pretty good track record when it comes to problems like this. The Environmental Kuznets Curve — the theory that countries pollute less as they get richer — seems to hold true for air and water pollution. As people escape poverty, they demand a cleaner local environment. For example, China used to be known for its toxic, unbreathable air, but in the 2010s it launched a successful cleanup policy:

Source: EPIC

The second kind of environmental harm — global harm — is a lot harder to deal with. These are things that mostly hurt people in other countries — global warming being the primary example. It’s very hard to solve global warming, because the worldwide nature of the harm means there’s a free rider problem (or, if you prefer, a coordination problem) — no country wants to pay the full cost of decarbonization, because most of the benefit goes to people in other countries. You can try international agreements, but everyone has an incentive to cheat.

Often, the best solution to these problems is technological — you simply invent something better and cheaper that doesn’t pollute as much, and then every country has an incentive to switch. Essentially, you use the positive externality of technology to fight the negative externality of pollution. This is what we did with HFC refrigerants, which replaced the CFCs that were destroying the ozone layer. It’s how we’re now fighting climate change with solar, batteries, and other green energy technologies.

But there’s a third kind of environmental harm, which is harm to the natural world. When pollution or logging or mining destroys natural habitats, it often doesn’t cause much harm to human beings — at least, not to those who are alive today. When coral reefs get bleached and die from industrial runoff, it might hurt tourism revenue a tiny bit, but overall humans don’t really get hurt. Animals and plants get hurt, but they have no voice in human politics. Future generations might regret not having coral reefs around, but they don’t exist yet, so they can’t complain.

Solving these harms seems like it probably requires some degree of altruism — either people caring about conservation for its own sake, or people who care a great deal about leaving a healthy natural world for their unborn descendants.

Altruism sounds like it won’t go far when matched against brute economic self-interest. But in recent years, I’ve become more optimistic that humans will care more intrinsically about preserving the natural world as they get richer. For example, people in North America, Europe, and East Asia all seem to care a lot about having forests:

This suggests that we won’t see a “race to the bottom” in terms of biodiversity loss, because the most powerful countries don’t seem to be the ones that chop down all their forests. Even Brazil, the worst offender in terms of sheer amount of forest cut down,1 has decreased the rate of Amazon deforestation by quite a lot since the early 2000s.

And that in turn hints at an even more important idea — that societies don’t trend toward greater rapaciousness as they become richer and more powerful. In his book The Better Angels of Our Nature, Steve Pinker theorized that people become more altruistic as they become more comfortable and secure; increasing global commitment to biodiversity seems to fit that theory. That might even be good news for the future of superintelligent AI — if rich nations stopped chopping down their forests, then maybe AI won’t kill the human race to use our resources for data centers.

Encouragingly, note the progress in China on the chart above. Some of this reforestation is motivated by the self-interested need to stop soil erosion and desertification, but China’s government has also increased its commitment to biodiversity. As another example of this, China banned fishing in the Yangtze River in 2021, in order to save fish stocks.

But there appear to be limits to China’s altruism here. Even as it took measures to prevent overfishing within its borders, China has continued to overfish much of the world’s oceans.

China’s fishing fleet just keeps getting bigger and bigger. This is from a 2025 report from the environmental group Oceana:

Oceana released an analysis of China’s global fishing* activity worldwide between 2022 and 2024. The analysis shows China’s global fishing footprint, in which 57,000 of their industrial fishing vessels dominated 44% of the world’s visible fishing activity during this period…Chinese vessels accounted for 30% of all fishing activity on the high seas, appearing to fish for more than 8.3 million hours.

In terms of catching wild fish, it’s basically China and Latin America dominating everyone else:

Much of this fishing activity is either outright illegal — meaning Chinese vessels fish in other countries’ waters in violation of their local laws or regional agreements — or unreported. In addition to simply violating laws with impunity, Chinese fleets use a large variety of tricks to get around regulations meant to keep them from overfishing — turning off their transponders, falsifying records, using foreign front companies, and so on. A lot of this fishing activity isn’t just to fuel China’s own increasing fish consumption — it’s an export industry. Here’s a detailed report from the Outlaw Ocean Project. Some key excerpts:

The size and behavior of the Chinese fishing fleet raises concerns…The Chinese government and western seafood companies often dismiss illegality in the fishing industry as an isolated problem. But [our] investigation revealed a wide pattern: Almost half of the Chinese squid fleet, 357 of the 751 ships studied, were tied to human-rights or environmental violations…

More than 100 Chinese squid ships were found to have fished illegally, including by targeting protected species, operating without a license, and dumping excess fish into the sea. The investigation revealed other environmental or fishing-specific crimes and risk indicators, including Chinese ships illegally entering the waters of other countries, disabling locational transponders in violation of Chinese law…transmitting dual identities (or “spoofing”)…fishing without a license, and using prohibited fishing gear. But the most common environmental violation involved Chinese ships poaching fish from other countries’ waters…

About 80 percent of seafood consumed in the U.S. is caught or processed abroad, with China as its biggest supplier.

Poor countries in Latin America and Africa don’t have the state capacity or economic leverage to enforce their laws. As a result, their waters are crammed with vast fleets of Chinese fishing boats:

Why is Chinese overfishing bad? Obviously it hurts fishermen in poor countries by taking away their fish. But in addition, it hurts biodiversity and robs future generations of fish. Here’s a good primer from Our World in Data that shows what you would do if you cared mainly about biodiversity, versus what you would do if you cared mainly about sustainability:

The key fact here is that whether you care more about the natural world or whether you care more about future humans being able to eat fish, the world is catching too many fish. An increasing percent of the world’s fisheries are now overexploited:

China’s lack of concern for sustainability plays a large part in this. Chinese fishing vessels are more likely to use various techniques that make them catch more juvenile fish. One of these is bottom-trawling, which drags nets along the seabed. Japan and the U.S. have largely given up on this practice; China has long been the world’s worst offender.

In previous decades, environmental organizations like Greenpeace sounded the alarm over Chinese overfishing. In recent years, with a few commendable exceptions like Sea Shepherd, they have mostly gone quiet. This is unfortunately consistent with the idea that legacy environmental groups are generally drifting from universal values of environmental protection toward a more explicitly leftist stance that focuses exclusively on critiquing the West and ignores environmental abuses by non-Western countries. (You can also see this in climate groups’ stubborn refusal to criticize China, which is by far the world’s worst climate polluter.)

In other words, geopolitics is starting to intrude into environmental debates. Most of the alarms now being sounded about Chinese overfishing come from “China hawks” rather than from environmentalists. And geopolitics is probably a big part of the reason China hasn’t cracked down on its global overfishing practices.

Traditionally, a lot of China’s overfishing has been due to massive subsidies that the Chinese government gives to the industry, mostly in the form of cheap fuel and other support. In the late 2010s, China began curbing those subsidies a bit. But as Ian Urbina reported back in 2020, these efforts have been pretty slow and minor when it comes to international waters, and geopolitics is probably a big reason:

[M]ore than seafood is at stake in the present size and ambition of China’s fishing fleet. Against the backdrop of China’s larger geo-political aspirations, the country’s commercial fishermen often serve as de-facto paramilitary personnel whose activities the Chinese government can frame as private actions. Under a civilian guise, this ostensibly private armada helps assert territorial domination, especially pushing back fishermen or governments that challenge China’s sovereignty claims that encompass nearly all of the South China Sea.

“What China is doing is putting both hands behind its back and using its big belly to push you out, to dare you to hit first,” said Huang Jing, former director of the Center on Asia and Globalization at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore.

Chinese fishing boats are notoriously aggressive and often shadowed, even on the high seas or in other countries’ national waters, by armed Chinese Coast Guard vessels…From the waters of North Korea to Mexico to Indonesia, incursions by Chinese fishing ships are becoming more frequent, brazen and aggressive.

In other words, China’s government is becoming increasingly concerned about biodiversity and sustainability for its own sake, and this has resulted in more sustainable fishing practices in China’s own waters. But at the same time, China is using its vast international fishing fleet as a sort of naval militia to press its claims on other countries’ waters. And this is having collateral damage on the natural world — China’s quasi-military subsidies for its fishing fleet are resulting in too much actual fishing taking place.

In one sense, this is actually kind of optimistic. The fact that China is overfishing international waters for military and geopolitical reasons, rather than out of pure economic rapacity, suggests that the Chinese are not an exception to the rule that richer societies start to care more about sustainability — and, perhaps, about the intrinsic value of the natural world as well.

But in the meantime, the bad news is that China’s decision to maintain its fishing fleet as a naval militia means that the world’s oceans are being despoiled and drained of wildlife. That’s not good, and I wish that more environmentalists would pay attention to the problem. As power and wealth shift away from the West, the environmental movement risks making itself irrelevant if it continues its recent practice of letting countries like China off the hook.


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When Algorithms Know You Better Than You Know Yourself: How Digital Platforms Shape Player Behavior

Online casinos are no longer simple collections of games. They operate as intelligent digital systems that analyze user behavior and adapt in real time. For players in the Czech Republic exploring modern platforms, understanding how algorithms shape the gaming experience is essential.

Algorithms track patterns such as preferred slot themes, betting frequency, session duration, and responses to promotional offers. Over time, this data allows platforms to refine recommendations and streamline navigation. The result is a more personalized experience that feels intuitive and effortless.

The Architecture of Digital Choice

Digital platforms are structured around what behavioral economists call “choice architecture.” This refers to the way options are presented and how that presentation influences decisions.

On casino platforms, this includes:

  • Featured games placed at the top of the homepage
  • Highlighted betting markets during major sporting events
  • Time-sensitive bonus notifications
  • Suggested games based on previous activity

These elements are not accidental. Positioning, color contrast, and timing can subtly guide attention. When players see familiar games or offers that match their past behavior, decision-making becomes faster and more automatic.

Personalization Through Data

Modern casino platforms rely heavily on analytics. Every click, bet, and pause provides information that helps refine the system.

If a player frequently chooses live dealer games, similar tables may appear more prominently. If someone prefers high-volatility slots, related titles may be suggested. This personalization reduces friction and enhances immersion.

At Kajot Casino online slots and betting games, the platform experience is structured to align with user preferences, making transitions between games smooth and responsive. Personalization can improve enjoyment, but it also increases session continuity by presenting relevant content without requiring extensive searching.

The Psychology Behind Engagement

Digital casino environments are built on psychological principles that encourage sustained interaction.

Variable Rewards

Unpredictable outcomes are powerful motivators. When wins occur at irregular intervals, anticipation increases. This unpredictability keeps attention focused on the next spin or hand.

The Near-Miss Effect

A slot result that stops just short of a jackpot can feel almost as stimulating as a win. Near misses create a perception of closeness, which may encourage another attempt.

Instant Feedback

Fast-loading games and immediate results maintain momentum. When betting decisions lead to quick outcomes, the pace reinforces continued engagement.

When exploring casino games, betting markets, and bonus offers at https://kajot-casino.app, players encounter a streamlined environment designed for quick interaction and uninterrupted gameplay. That smooth structure enhances immersion and reduces delays between decisions.

How Algorithms Influence Player Decisions

Algorithms do more than recommend games. They analyze behavior in context. For example:

  • If a player increases stakes after small wins, the system may highlight similar games.
  • If sessions typically occur in the evening, promotional reminders may appear during those hours.
  • If bonus offers trigger longer playtime, targeted promotions may become more visible.

These adjustments are automated and data-driven. The platform adapts continuously to maximize relevance and engagement.

At Kajot Casino real money casino games and betting options, structured layouts and algorithm-driven recommendations help players navigate quickly between slots, table games, and sports bets. The experience feels intuitive because it is built on accumulated behavioral data.

Staying Aware in a Personalized Environment

Personalized digital systems are not inherently negative. They are designed to enhance user satisfaction. However, awareness is important.

Understanding how interface design, recommendation engines, and behavioral triggers operate allows players to maintain intentional control. Setting clear budgets, defining session time in advance, and recognizing emotional decision-making patterns can help preserve balance.

Digital casino platforms continue to evolve, becoming smarter and more adaptive each year. When players understand how algorithms shape the experience, they gain an advantage. Instead of being guided unconsciously, they can choose deliberately, keeping entertainment aligned with their own goals and limits.


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How Much Is One Second of Attention Worth?

In the digital economy, time is no longer just a measurement. It is a resource, tracked, analyzed, and converted into revenue. For online casinos and sports betting platforms, every second a player spends browsing games, comparing odds, or reviewing bonus offers carries measurable value.

For players in the Czech Republic navigating today’s competitive online gambling market, understanding how attention works as currency helps answer an important question: what exactly are platforms optimizing for?

The Attention Economy in Online Gaming

Technology companies have long competed for user attention. Social media platforms measure engagement in minutes. Streaming services track watch time. Online casinos and bookmakers operate in a similar framework, where session duration, return frequency, and interaction depth shape performance metrics.

Every click on a slot title, every visit to a live betting page, and every review of promotional terms generates data. That data allows platforms to refine recommendations, adjust layouts, and present offers that align with user preferences.

This does not mean manipulation. It means optimization. Digital systems are designed to reduce friction and make decision-making smoother. When the path from interest to action is short, users remain engaged longer.

What Happens in a Single Second

A second may seem insignificant, but in digital terms, it can determine whether a user leaves or stays.

Interface Response Time

Fast-loading pages and instant game launches reduce hesitation. If a slot takes several seconds to load, attention may drift. If it loads immediately, momentum continues.

Visual Hierarchy

Buttons, banners, and highlighted bonuses are positioned intentionally. The human eye follows patterns. Platforms analyze which layouts increase interaction and refine designs accordingly.

Micro-Decisions

Scrolling through betting markets or slot categories involves dozens of rapid choices. Each one consumes a fraction of attention. Together, they create immersion.

On platforms like FunID Casino casino games and sports betting aggregator, the structure of available slots, live betting options, and promotional bonuses is organized to help players compare offers efficiently across multiple operators. The value lies in clarity and speed, allowing users to navigate without unnecessary delays.

How Aggregator Platforms Compete for Time

Unlike a single casino brand, aggregator platforms serve as intermediaries. They connect users with multiple licensed casinos and bookmakers in one interface. That means their business model depends even more heavily on engagement.

When a user compares welcome bonuses, reads wagering conditions, or checks odds across different betting providers, attention becomes the main asset. The longer a visitor stays to evaluate options, the more likely they are to choose a partner casino through the platform.

When browsing casino games, betting markets, and promotional bonuses at https://funid-casino.com, users access a centralized space where operators, offers, and gameplay categories are displayed side by side. The design emphasizes comparison, transparency, and quick navigation between brands.

Measuring the Value of Engagement

Online gambling platforms analyze several key performance indicators:

  • Session duration
  • Click-through rates on bonus offers
  • Frequency of return visits
  • Conversion rates from browsing to registration

These metrics reveal how effectively attention converts into action. Even small improvements—such as reducing the number of steps required to access a bonus—can significantly impact engagement levels.

At FunID Casino online slots and betting offers comparison platforms, the presentation of casino reviews, bonus structures, and betting options aims to streamline the decision-making process. Clear categorization reduces cognitive overload and keeps the experience focused.

Why Attention Matters to Players

For operators and aggregators, attention drives revenue. For players, attention shapes experience.

Understanding that platforms are structured to maximize time spent can help users approach gambling more consciously. Quick transitions between games, targeted bonus banners, and real-time betting updates are designed to maintain flow.

That flow is not inherently negative. It enhances convenience and improves usability. However, recognizing how digital environments are engineered allows players to set boundaries more intentionally.

Managing Time in a High-Speed Environment

Online gambling environments move quickly. Odds change in seconds. Slot rounds resolve instantly. Bonus timers count down in real time. All of this reinforces urgency.

Players can benefit from simple strategies:

  • Setting a fixed time frame before starting a session
  • Comparing offers deliberately rather than impulsively
  • Reviewing bonus conditions before clicking through
  • Taking short breaks between betting rounds

When attention is treated as a valuable resource, decision-making becomes more deliberate. The digital environment may be optimized for speed, but users retain the ability to control how long they stay.

Online casino and betting platforms will continue refining their systems to reduce friction and increase engagement. That is the nature of digital competition. The real question is not only how much one second of attention is worth to the platform—but how much it is worth to the player who gives it.


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There's a lot of big talk about sovereign launch—who is doing something about it?

No one will supplant American and Chinese dominance in the space launch arena anytime soon, but several longtime US allies now see sovereign access to space as a national security imperative.

Taking advantage of private launch initiatives already underway within their own borders, several middle and regional powers have approved substantial government funding for commercial startups to help them reach the launch pad. Australia, Canada, Germany, and Spain are among the nations that currently lack the ability to independently put their own satellites into orbit but which are now spending money to establish a domestic launch industry. Others talk a big game but haven't committed the cash to back up their ambitions.

The moves are part of a wider trend among US allies to increase defense spending amid strained relations with the Trump administration. Tariffs, trade wars, and threats to invade the territory of a NATO ally have changed the tune of many foreign leaders. In Europe, there's even talk of fielding a nuclear deterrent independent of the nuclear umbrella provided by the US military.

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Propulsion Options for the Solar Gravitational Lens Mission

Propulsion Options for the Solar Gravitational Lens Mission

A mission to the Sun’s gravity focus – or more precisely, the focal ‘line’ we might begin to use at around 650 AU – is never far from my mind. Any interstellar mission we might launch within the next thirty years or so (think Breakthrough Starshot, about which more next week) will essentially be shooting blind. We have little idea what to expect at Proxima Centauri b, if that is our (logical) target. But a mission to the solar gravity focus (SGL) would give us a chance to examine any prospective target at close hand.

Indeed, so powerful are the effects if we can exploit this opportunity that we should be able to see continents, weather patterns, oceans and more if we can disentangle the Einstein Ring that the planet’s image forms as shaped by general relativity. We’ve discussed the phenomenon many a time: The Sun’s gravitational well so shapes the image of what is directly behind it as seen from the SGL so as to produce stupendous magnification, the image served up as a ‘ring’ around the Sun in the same way that astronomers now see some distant galaxies as rings around closer galaxies.

Image:The Einstein Ring and how we could sample it. By looking at different slices of the Einstein ring, enough information could be acquired for a computer deconvolution to reconstruct the planet. Credit: Geoffrey Landis (NASA GRC).

Within that ring there is bountiful information. Not only would we have an image we could reconstruct, but we also would have multipixel spectroscopy, allowing us to identify elements through the signature of light from the planet aand to map these properties in more than one dimension. So fecund is the information in the Einstein ring that we could detect all this with a spacecraft telescope no more than a meter or so in diameter. And because the SGL focal line extends to infinity, we can keep taking observations as we move outward from 650 AU to perhaps 900 AU.

Now comes JPL scientist Slava Turyshev with a trade study – an analysis made to evaluate and select the best propulsion technique to make a flight to the SGL possible within a rational timeframe, here seen as roughly thirty years. That seems like a lot, but bear in mind that even our far-flung Voyagers have yet to reach a distance that’s even halfway to the SGL region. Remember, too, that once we find a way to propel a craft to the SGL, we have to choose a trajectory so precise that our target will be exactly opposite the Sun from the spacecraft. In this business, alignment is everything.

Each new Turyshev paper into SGL territory reminds us that this work has been taken into Phase III status at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, funded by NASA’s Institute for Advanced Concepts. The potential showstoppers of an SGL mission are daunting, and have been examined in papers that examine everything from sail design and ‘sundiver’ trajectories to deconvolution of an SGL image. Perhaps most futuristic has been the Turyshev team’s discussion of self-assembly of a payload divided into small packages into the completed observational equipment enroute. Previous Centauri Dreams articles such as Solar Gravitational Lens: Sailcraft and Inflight Assembly or Good News for a Gravitational Focus Mission may be helpful, though the pace of stories on the SGL has been accelerating, and for the complete sequence I suggest a search in the archives.

All this is bringing me around to the scope of the propulsion problem. In addition to the need for precise positioning within the SGL focal line, the spacecraft must be able to move laterally within the image, which is of considerable size. One recent calculation found that an Earth-sized planet orbiting Epsilon Eridani (10 light years away) would project an image 12.5 kilometers in diameter at 630 AU from the Sun. One envisions multiple spacecraft taking pixel samples at various locations within the image plane. The image must then be produced by integrating these samples. This is ‘deconvolution,’ turning the Einstein ring into a coherent image free of ‘noise.’

As Geoffrey Landis, who made this calculation, points out: The image is far larger than the spacecraft we send. Landis (NASA GRC) also notes that a one-meter telescope at the SGL collects the same amount of light as a telescope of 80 meters without the gravitational lens. So we definitely want to do this, but to make it happen, the spacecraft will need propulsion and power. All this has a bearing on payload, for in an environment where solar panels are not an option, we need a radioisotope or fission power source.

Back to the Turyshev paper. Propulsion emerges as perhaps the mission’s most significant challenge, although one that the author thinks can be met. Here we run into what I call the ‘generation clock,’ which is the desire to keep mission outcomes within the lifetime of researchers who launched the project. Twenty to thirty years in cruise is often mentioned in connection with the SGL mission, meaning we need the ability to reach 650 AU with our spacecraft within that timeframe. A daunting task, for it involves reaching 154 kilometers per second. On outbound trajectories we’ve yet to exceed Voyager’s 17.1 km/sec, highlighting the magnitude of the problem.

Image: JPL’s Slava Turyshev.

We can’t solve it with chemical rockets, not even with gravity assist strategies, but solar sails coupled with an Oberth maneuver loom large as a potential solution. Advances in materials science and the success of missions like the Parker Solar Probe remind us of the potential here, offering the option of deploying a sail in a tight perihelion pass to achieve a massive boost. To manage 650 AU in 20 years means we will need 32.5 AU per year. But if we can work with a perihelion pass at 0.05 AU (7,500,000 km), we can achieve that speed, and the Parker probe has already proven we know how to do this. Finding the metamaterials to make a sail survive such a passage is an ongoing task.

The paper sums the issue up:

Recent “extreme solar sailing” studies emphasize that very fast transits are achievable in principle only by combining ultra-low total areal density with very deep perihelia (a few solar radii), which moves the feasibility question from trajectory mechanics to coupled materials, thermal, and large-area deployment qualification. For example, [Davoyan et al., 2021] analyzed extreme-proximity solar sailing (≲ 5 R) and discussed candidate metamaterial sail approaches together with the associated environmental and system challenges at these perihelia. These results reinforce the conclusion here: sub-20 yr sail-only access is not ruled out by physics, but it lives in a tightly coupled materials+structures+thermal qualification regime at mission scale.

So we have a lot to learn to make this happen. The paper notes that as we move from current sail readiness to what we will need for the SGL mission, we go from sails that are in the 10-meter class up to sails as much as 300 meters in diameter, while still needing to keep our sail material astonishingly thin and capable of surviving the perihelion temperatures. Operating at deep perihelia with metamaterials is a subject still very low on the TRL level, meaning technical readiness to produce and fly such a sail is nowhere near where it needs to be if we are to launch in the 2035-2040 window hoped for by mission planners. If we can launch multiple sails, we can consider self-assembly of the larger payload in transit, also at a very low TRL

Importantly, this maturity gap is not a physics limit: it is a program-and-demonstration limit. A focused late2020s/early-2030s development that couples (i) large-area deployment validation, (ii) deep-perihelion optical-property stability tests, and (iii) integrated areal-density demonstrations at the 104–105 m2 scale could credibly raise the SGL-class sail system TRL into the mission-start window, particularly for the 25–40 yr-class access regime.

Image: Sailcraft example trajectory toward the Solar Gravity Lens. Taken from an earlier report by Turyshev et al.

Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) offers certain advantages over solar sails, including the fission reactor that powers its thrusters, for as mentioned, solar power at these distances is not practical. Turyshev’s calculations make the needed comparison, yielding a mission that can reach 650 AU in 27 years, putting it in range of what the sail strategy can deliver. Using propellant remaining in the craft upon arrival at the SGL, our spacecraft can now manage station-keeping and trajectory changes necessary to collect the needed pixels of our exoplanet image. In terms of operations, then, as well as payload capability, NEP stands out. Note that here again we have thermal issues, for the NEP-powered craft will need their own close perihelion pass to boost velocity. Turyshev points out that NEP will also demand large, deployable radiators to allow the escape of waste heat.

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) now comes into the discussion, as the author considers potential hybrid missions. In NTP, liquid hydrogen is heated by the reactor core to produce thrust through the exhaust nozzle. Capable of high specific impulse, this method is treated here as “a high-thrust injection stage,” one that could be used during an Oberth maneuver to increase the velocity of an NEP-equipped spacecraft. The nuclear issues persist: We need safety analyses and ground testing facilities for the reactor, radiological handling protocols, and additional flight approval processes.

The three propulsion options play against each other in interesting ways. Sails avoid the problem of flight approval for nuclear materials as well as necessary infrastructure for ground testing. But materials and deployment issues still exist for these ultra-thin sails. An NEP engine that offers wider use beyond the SGL mission could lower incremental costs. And what if we tinker with mission duration? The fact remains that regardless of the choice of propulsion, we still have to operate in an environment that requires radioisotope or fission power, with all the implications for payload overhead that entails.

Programmatically, a credible 2035–2040 start requires aligning architecture choice with what can be demonstrated by the early 2030s. If minimum TOF [time of flight] is the primary requirement, solar sailing (with an explicit deep-perihelion materials and deployment qualification program) remains the most schedule-aligned approach. If delivered capability and operational robustness at the SGL dominate, NEP is uniquely attractive, but a 2035–2040 launch that depends on NEP for transportation must be preceded by an integrated stage demonstration that retires system-level coupling risks (thermal, EMI/EMC [Electromagnetic Interference / Electromagnetic Compatibility], plume, autonomy, and nuclear approval). In either case, SGL transportation should be treated as flagship-class in development complexity because the critical path runs through integrated demonstrations rather than through single-component maturity.

This is how missions get designed, and you can see how involved the process becomes long before actual hardware is even built. My belief is that the question of the generation clock is fading, for in dealing with issues like the SGL, we’re forced to contemplate scenarios in which those who plan the mission may not see its completion (although I hope Slava Turyshev is very much an exception!) In sending missions beyond the Solar System, we create gifts of data to future generations, who may well use what the SGL finds to plan missions much further afield, perhaps all the way to Proxima Centauri b.

The paper is Turyshev, “Propulsion Trades for a 2035-2040 Solar Gravitational Lens Mission,” currently available as a preprint. For more on acquisition of the lensed image, see Geoffrey Landis’ extremely useful slide presentation.

Critical Fire Weather in the High Plains and Midwest; Heavy Snow in the Western Mountains and Northern Plains

Magic mushrooms have a role in hospice care

 Pain experienced while dying may be partly spiritual.

 National Geographic has the story: 

These drugs could be a game changer for end-of-life care
Certain psychoactive substances can improve the mental health of terminally ill cancer patients—but few patients can currently access them.  By Meryl Davids Landau

 "Several years ago in Vancouver Island, Canada, a 32-year-old mother with advanced metastatic cancer was so wracked with pain and a fear of dying she constantly wept in bed. Through a targeted Canadian government program, the woman accessed psilocybin, the main psychedelic ingredient in magic mushrooms. The day after taking a dose of the drug she was pain-free, able to joke with family members and reconnect with old friends before she died the following week.

...
"The drugs can help with “the existential component of pain that is tied in with spiritual and psychological experiences,” something conventional medicine has few tools to address, says Masuda, a physician with SATA Centre for Conscious Living, who has since facilitated dozens of psychedelic sessions for similar patients.

"Some 400 terminal patients in Canada have legally accessed psilocybin in the past five years via its special programs, and several countries already allow for similar uses. Due to federal drug laws, terminally ill people in the U.S. cannot currently take psilocybin outside of a handful of clinical trials.

"But this may finally change, as government agencies are evaluating whether to allow its use for end-of-life care—thanks to pressure from physicians and years of research. Many palliative care doctors in the U.S. say the change can’t come soon enough." 

The Cassidy Report on the FDA

Senator Bill Cassidy (R-La.) released a new report on how to modernize the FDA. It has some good material.

… FDA’s process for reviewing new products can be an unpredictable “black box.” FDA teams can differ greatly in the extent to which they require testing or impose standards that are not calibrated to the relevant risks. The perceived disconnect between the forward leaning rhetoric and thought leadership of senior FDA officials and cautious reviewer practice creates further unpredictability. This uncertainty dampens investment and increases the time it takes for patients to receive new therapies.

Companies report that they face a “reviewer lottery,” where critical questions hinge on the approach of a small number of individuals at FDA. Some FDA review teams are creative and forward-leaning, helping developers design programs and overcome obstacles to get needed products to patients, without cutting corners. FDA’s Oncology Center of Excellence (OCE), for example, is repeatedly identified as a model for providing predictable yet flexible options for bringing new drugs to cancer patients. OCE is now a dialogue-based regulatory paradigm that has facilitated efforts by academia, industry, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and others to develop new cancer therapies and launch innovative programs and pilots like Project Orbis, RealTime Oncology Review.

That’s quite right. In my report with DiMasi and Milne, we show that review times vary markedly within the FDA, across divisions, without clear cause. Put aside the big questions of FDA or no FDA–scaling the practices of the better-performing divisions would likely yield large gains.

Mike Doherty further asks the AI what Alex Tabarrok would think of the Cassidy report. It replies:

  • Strongest features: It correctly diagnoses FDA as a bottleneck to innovation, emphasizes “least burdensome” evidence, calls for streamlined pathways (505(b)(2)-style for biologics, biosimilar simplification), and worries about U.S. losing early-phase trials to other countries. This is very much in Tabarrok’s wheelhouse: regulation as a hidden tax on innovation and growth.

  • Weakest features: It rarely quantifies tradeoffs, almost never confronts the “invisible graveyard” of patients who never see therapies because of delay, and treats reforms as marginal tweaks rather than testing fundamentally different regulatory models (e.g., insurance-based approval, private certification, or sunset/experimentation with parallel regimes).

If you imagine this as a draft memo handed to Tabarrok, he’d likely say: “Good directionally; now add 50% more economics, 50% more quantification, and 100% more willingness to experiment with institutional competition.”

Yeah, pretty good.

Addendum: In other FDA news see also Adam Kroetsch on Will Bayesian Statistics Transform Trials?

Addendum 2: FDA has now agreed to review Moderna’s flu vaccine which is good although the course reversal obviously speaks to the unpredictability of the FDA.

The post The Cassidy Report on the FDA appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Review: Webb's Cosmos

NASA's James Webb Space Telescope has hit its stride since its launch more than four years ago, producing stunning images. Christopher Cokinos reviews a book that compiles some of the best images from it so far.

When second best is good enough: The Initial Defense Satellite Communications System

In the early years of the Space Age, the US military had ambitious plans for communications satellites but found them difficult to implement. Dwayne Day describes how a backup plan emerged using smaller, less complex satellites.

Musk's Moon mania

Elon Musk and SpaceX have long been associated with establishing a human presence on Mars, but that appears to be changing. Jeff Foust reports on how Musk is turning his attention towards the Moon, one tied to AI and orbital data centers.

Seattle's lessons for rocket reusability

While reuse of the first stage of launch vehicle has long been proven by SpaceX, reusing a rocket's upper stage is more difficult. Robert Oler examine options for reusing some or all of an upper stage.

Tame the wolf, release the panda: The case for US-China space cooperation

For 15 years, the Wolf Amendment has severely restricted US-China civil space cooperation. Jimin Park makes the case that it's time for those restrictions to end.

Rodney v0.4.0

Rodney v0.4.0

My Rodney CLI tool for browser automation attracted quite the flurry of PRs since I announced it last week. Here are the release notes for the just-released v0.4.0:

  • Errors now use exit code 2, which means exit code 1 is just for for check failures. #15
  • New rodney assert command for running JavaScript tests, exit code 1 if they fail. #19
  • New directory-scoped sessions with --local/--global flags. #14
  • New reload --hard and clear-cache commands. #17
  • New rodney start --show option to make the browser window visible. Thanks, Antonio Cuni. #13
  • New rodney connect PORT command to debug an already-running Chrome instance. Thanks, Peter Fraenkel. #12
  • New RODNEY_HOME environment variable to support custom state directories. Thanks, Senko Rašić. #11
  • New --insecure flag to ignore certificate errors. Thanks, Jakub Zgoliński. #10
  • Windows support: avoid Setsid on Windows via build-tag helpers. Thanks, adm1neca. #18
  • Tests now run on windows-latest and macos-latest in addition to Linux.

I've been using Showboat to create demos of new features - here those are for rodney assert, rodney reload --hard, rodney exit codes, and rodney start --local.

The rodney assert command is pretty neat: you can now Rodney to test a web app through multiple steps in a shell script that looks something like this (adapted from the README):

#!/bin/bash
set -euo pipefail

FAIL=0

check() {
    if ! "$@"; then
        echo "FAIL: $*"
        FAIL=1
    fi
}

rodney start
rodney open "https://example.com"
rodney waitstable

# Assert elements exist
check rodney exists "h1"

# Assert key elements are visible
check rodney visible "h1"
check rodney visible "#main-content"

# Assert JS expressions
check rodney assert 'document.title' 'Example Domain'
check rodney assert 'document.querySelectorAll("p").length' '2'

# Assert accessibility requirements
check rodney ax-find --role navigation

rodney stop

if [ "$FAIL" -ne 0 ]; then
    echo "Some checks failed"
    exit 1
fi
echo "All checks passed"

Tags: browsers, projects, testing, annotated-release-notes, rodney

Quoting ROUGH DRAFT 8/2/66

This is the story of the United Space Ship Enterprise. Assigned a five year patrol of our galaxy, the giant starship visits Earth colonies, regulates commerce, and explores strange new worlds and civilizations. These are its voyages... and its adventures.

ROUGH DRAFT 8/2/66, before the Star Trek opening narration reached its final form

Tags: screen-writing, science-fiction

First kākāpō chick in four years hatches on Valentine's Day

First kākāpō chick in four years hatches on Valentine's Day

First chick of the 2026 breeding season!

Kākāpō Yasmine hatched an egg fostered from kākāpō Tīwhiri on Valentine's Day, bringing the total number of kākāpō to 237 – though it won’t be officially added to the population until it fledges.

Here's why the egg was fostered:

"Kākāpō mums typically have the best outcomes when raising a maximum of two chicks. Biological mum Tīwhiri has four fertile eggs this season already, while Yasmine, an experienced foster mum, had no fertile eggs."

And an update from conservation biologist Andrew Digby - a second chick hatched this morning!

The second #kakapo chick of the #kakapo2026 breeding season hatched this morning: Hine Taumai-A1-2026 on Ako's nest on Te Kākahu. We transferred the egg from Anchor two nights ago. This is Ako's first-ever chick, which is just a few hours old in this video.

That post has a video of mother and chick.

A beautiful charismatic green Kākāp feeding a little grey chick

Via MetaFilter

Tags: kakapo

Quoting Dimitris Papailiopoulos

But the intellectually interesting part for me is something else. I now have something close to a magic box where I throw in a question and a first answer comes back basically for free, in terms of human effort. Before this, the way I'd explore a new idea is to either clumsily put something together myself or ask a student to run something short for signal, and if it's there, we’d go deeper. That quick signal step, i.e., finding out if a question has any meat to it, is what I can now do without taking up anyone else's time. It’s now between just me, Claude Code, and a few days of GPU time.

I don’t know what this means for how we do research long term. I don’t think anyone does yet. But the distance between a question and a first answer just got very small.

Dimitris Papailiopoulos, on running research questions though Claude Code

Tags: research, coding-agents, claude-code, generative-ai, ai, llms

MAGA White Supremacists Are a Bunch of Pathetic Losers

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Among the deep and probably lasting ways Donald Trump transformed the Republican Party and American conservatism is this: What was implicit is now explicit, what was subtext is now text. The dog whistles are put away, the subtlety is replaced with bluntness, and the laborious task of appealing to what is worst in people in such a way as to allow them to convince themselves they are still committed to admirable ideals is set aside.

So as those hoping to retain or expand their influence in the post-Trump GOP begin navigating their way toward the future, many have decided that there’s not much need anymore to clothe their white supremacist ideas in reassuring language. It’s right on the table for all to see.

Yet we can take a bit of solace in an increasingly obvious fact, one that’s worth understanding and emphasizing since we’ll be dealing with these people and their ideas for some time to come:

MAGA white supremacists are a bunch of losers.

They’re whiny and stupid and weak, their ideas whither under even a moment’s scrutiny or questioning, and their fantasies of oppression are pathetic. Let’s take a look around at what Republicans are saying, starting with this ad from Andy Barr, a Kentucky congressman who’s running for the seat of the retiring Mitch McConnell in Kentucky:

“You know what DEI really stands for? Dumb, evil indoctrination. Woke liberals spew it. Corporate losers fall for it. But thanks to Trump, America is rejecting that trash. And I’m leading the fight to end it for good. I’m Andy Barr. It’s not a sin to be white. It’s not against the law to be male. And it shouldn’t be disqualifying to be a Christian. I’m Andy Barr, and I approve this message to give woke liberals something else to cry about.”

So brave! If only we can dream of a future in which all whites are not condemned, men are not arrested and imprisoned because of their gender, and Christians can get jobs or loans just like Jews or Muslims. There’s only one person crying here, and it’s Andy Barr.

Barr has long been known as one of the dimmer bulbs in the House, but he stands a fair shot of becoming a U.S. senator. He may have been encouraged to proclaim the heretofore oppressed virtue of whiteness by Vice President JD Vance, who recently told the Turning Point USA conference that with the Trump administration in office, “In the United States of America, you don’t have to apologize for being white anymore.” Nobody in JD Vance’s life ever made him apologize for being white, and the same is true for the pasty petit bourgeoisie in the hall who cheered so gratefully when he said it. But they’ve been told a thousand times by Fox News and the rest of the media they consume that that’s what noble white people have to endure at the hands of cruel liberals every day. So with their imaginary anguish validated from the heights of power, they’re more willing than ever to come right out and rep their white pride.

Who else is doing so? The world’s richest man, for one:

Elon Musk’s longtime fixation on a white racial majority is intensifying. The richest man in the world posted about how the white race was under threat, made allusions to race science or promoted anti-immigrant conspiracy content on 26 out of 31 days in January, according to the Guardian’s analysis of his social media output. The posts, made on his platform X, reflect a renewed embrace of what extremism experts describe as white supremacist material…

Musk’s posts included him repeatedly claiming white people face systemic discrimination, endorsing the conspiracy that there is an ongoing genocide against white people in countries around the world and promoting a claim that white people would be “slaughtered” by non-whites if they become a demographic minority.

Meanwhile, we have an administration full of incel groypers sharing Nazi memes on social media accounts for the White House and cabinet departments. Like Musk, they want desperately to be considered cool and funny, but they aren’t and will never be. They’re losers.

And since the administration decided that it wasn’t white supremacist enough, it nominated Jeremy Carl, author of The Unprotected Class: How Anti-White Racism Is Tearing America Apart, who regularly decries the “erasure” of “white culture” and says whites are facing a “cultural genocide,” for a high position in the State Department representing America to international organizations. In his confirmation hearing, Carl allowed that perhaps his comments minimizing the Holocaust were a tad ill-considered, but under questioning he struggled to explain what precisely the “white culture” that he is so passionately devoted to preserving actually consists of:

There are a number of appropriate responses when witnessing this display, but the first one should be Look at this pathetic loser.

The rhetoric of race in the post-Trump GOP

If you were an ambitious Republican — say, one thinking about running for president — watching how explicit the appeals to white resentment have become, what conclusions would you draw about your party and what it wants? The early discussion of the 2028 GOP presidential primary is being framed as a contest between Vance and Marco Rubio, and though that is far too limited, Vance is definitely going to run and Rubio probably will too (though if he’s really clever he’ll wait another four years). In the meantime, Rubio is trying to find his way by positioning his rhetoric halfway between the more explicit white supremacism and venomous xenophobia Vance represents and the subtle appeals of the pre-Trump era. Here’s what he told European leaders at the Munich security conference:

For the United States and Europe, we belong together. America was founded 250 years ago, but the roots began here on this continent long before. The men who settled and built the nation of my birth arrived on our shores carrying the memories and the traditions and the Christian faith of their ancestors as a sacred inheritance, an unbreakable link between the old world and the new.

We are part of one civilization – Western civilization. We are bound to one another by the deepest bonds that nations could share, forged by centuries of shared history, Christian faith, culture, heritage, language, ancestry, and the sacrifices our forefathers made together for the common civilization to which we have fallen heir.

I’ve written before about Rubio’s sad evolution, from the politician who was supposed to create a new multi-racial Republican Party poised for the future to the emasculated Trump lackey we see today. Now he is beginning to position himself for a kinder, gentler version of Trump’s naked racism, taking some of Vance’s blood-and-soil nationalism and presenting it as a heritage that somehow includes himself, a Cuban-American son of immigrants.

All this is evidence that 16 years after Barack Obama was elected and 9 years after he left office, the Republican Party (and much of the country) is still in the grips of its white backlash, the collective freakout that accompanied a Black man becoming president — even a Black man who spent his entire life figuring out how to make himself as unthreatening to white people as possible. Given the fact that expressions of racism and white supremacism have gotten only more frequent from conservative politicians and media figures, anyone wanting to lead the GOP in 2028 would be a fool not to appeal to the racial animus that still boils inside the party’s soul.

What matters for the rest of us is, to repeat, these people are losers, and winning requires convincing as many Americans as possible of that fact. The white supremacists have nothing to offer but resentment and complaint, hate and fear, whining and bitching and moaning. Voters have to be shown that the only thing they will gain by following these losers is more misery and disappointment.

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Some Some


A simple test of how immigration really is going

I suggest looking at whether real estate prices in a particular locale have been rising or falling. If immigration is “ruining” a particular city, we would expect homes and other property values in that place to become much cheaper.

Home values have historically served as a strong indicator of the health of a city. Consider Detroit. It was one of the premier American cities in the mid-20th century, but the region lost a lot of its automobile industry to foreign competition, and crime rose precipitously. The city also was poorly managed. The result in real estate markets was a collapse in prices. If anyone asked you to point to quantifiable evidence for the decline in Detroit, it was easy to do so.

Detroit has undergone a renaissance since its nadir. New businesses have opened, crime rates have fallen, and the city feels more lively again. And since that turn of fortune, often dated around the 1990s, Detroit real estate has made a major comeback, putting aside the price collapse of the Great Recession in 2008. Home prices are not a perfect measure of how the city is doing, but they do pick up major and radical trends, both on the downside and on the upside.

The nice thing about market prices is that they show how buyers weigh the benefits of immigration against costs. Say some new immigrants have moved into your community and the quality of the schools has declined somewhat and traffic is modestly worse. At the same time, there are new businesses, the streets feel more lively, and it is easier to get a good local plumber. In the abstract, it is hard to tell which effects might be most important. But individuals, when bidding for homes or deciding to sell, make their own judgments. What happens to the home prices is a reflection of the collective judgments of people with major decisions about their lives on the line.

Of course in most of the Western world, including Malmo, real estate prices are healthy and very often rising.  Here is the full Free Press link, by yours truly.  The piece of course does cover the usual caveats, such as bubbles and busts, but note NIMBY factors will not alone reverse the basic conclusions.

The post A simple test of how immigration really is going appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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How the Kakistocracy Became a Quackistocracy

A chart of measles

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Childhood vaccination is one of public policy’s greatest success stories. People who view the 1950s through rose-colored glasses, seeing them as an era of American greatness, miss many ways in which life was much worse then than now, ranging from gross racism and sexism to high poverty rates among the elderly. One often-overlooked feature of the “good old days” was that many children contracted, and some died from, infectious diseases that have now been almost eliminated — or had been almost eliminated, until today’s right-wing anti-vaccine agitators set the stage for their comeback.

In many ways the Trump administration’s hostility to vaccines is similar to its hostility to clean energy, which I wrote about yesterday. Both policy swerves will kill Americans. If Trumpists succeed in forcing the U.S. to burn more coal, thousands will die from air pollution. Only a year into the Trump 47 administration, there is already a resurgence in almost conquered diseases due to the anti-vax MAGA crusade. Both these sudden policy serves are economically destructive: A 2024 report from the Centers for Disease Control estimated that each dollar spent on childhood vaccination has saved around $11 in societal costs.

Moreover, the Trumpists aren’t content with just cutting off federal funding — they’re determined to stop anyone else from doing the right thing. The Trump administration has imposed a blockade on privately funded wind and solar projects, while RFK Jr.’s allies are pushing to prevent states from implementing childhood vaccine mandates.

And the damage from the assault on vaccines continues to widen. Last week the Food and Drug Administration refused to review Moderna’s new mRNA-based flu vaccine. They didn’t reject it based on evidence; they wouldn’t even look at it, in line with RFK Jr.’s evidence-free, dogmatic assertion that mRNA technology, which gave us Covid vaccines, is useless and harmful. Pharmaceutical companies, understandably, are retreating from vaccine development.

The motivations behind the crusade against clean energy and the crusade against vaccines are also similar. The conspiracy-theorizing hostility to science and expertise in general that underpins both movements also predisposes people to become right-wing extremists, which means that their movements are now in power. The headline on a 2023 article in The Guardian captured this perfectly: “ ‘Everything you’ve been told is a lie’: Inside the wellness-to-fascism pipeline.”

Last but by no means least, in both cases it’s crucial to follow the money.

It may seem strange to think of the wellness industry as a corrupt and corrupting force comparable to the fossil-fuel sector. But wellness is big business. McKinsey estimates that U.S. spending on wellness is running at around $500 billion a year, while spending on nutritional supplements alone was close to $70 billion last year.

And sellers of nutritional supplements, unlike companies selling pharmaceuticals, are effectively allowed to make false, outlandish claims about what their products do. Here’s how the National Institutes of Health summarized the law:

Dietary supplement labels may include certain types of health-related claims. Manufacturers are permitted to say, for example, that a supplement promotes health or supports a body part or function (like heart health or the immune system). These claims must be followed by the words, “This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease.”

In other words, it’s OK to peddle snake oil with false medical claims as long as you mumble some content-freeboilerplate.

And where do the snake-oil salesmen peddle their wares? Largely on right-wing media. After all, that’s where they can find customers who have the right mix of anti-intellectualism and disdain for experts. And the snake-oil purveyors are, in turn, a key part of the extreme right’s financial ecosystem.

I wrote about this almost five years ago. The relationship between quack medicine and right-wing extremism has a long history. As the historian Rick Perlstein has documented, extremists have been marketing medical snake oil, and snake oil purveyors have been financially supporting extremism, since the days when misinformation had to be disseminated through paper newsletters. This mutually beneficial relationship continued through the eras of talk radio, cable TV, and now podcasts.

But now we have entered a new era. As many observers have noted, the Trump administration is a kakistocracy: rule by the worst. A history of personal corruption is no longer a bar to high office — it’s practically a requirement.

Under Trump 47, people who have enriched themselves by peddling medical misinformation are no longer just influencing policymakers. They have become policymakers. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who appears to have made millions in salary and book royalties thanks to his anti-vaccine screeds, is now the secretary of health and human services. Dr. Oz is running Medicare and Medicaid.

In short, the kakistocracy is also a quackistocracy.

And the reign of the quacks will condemn thousands, perhaps millions of Americans — many of them children — to gratuitous illness and in some cases death.

MUSICAL CODA

Introducing Claude Sonnet 4.6

Introducing Claude Sonnet 4.6

Sonnet 4.6 is out today, and Anthropic claim it offers similar performance to November's Opus 4.5 while maintaining the Sonnet pricing of $3/million input and $15/million output tokens (the Opus models are $5/$25). Here's the system card PDF.

Sonnet 4.6 has a "reliable knowledge cutoff" of August 2025, compared to Opus 4.6's May 2025 and Haiku 4.5's February 2025. Both Opus and Sonnet default to 200,000 max input tokens but can stretch to 1 million in beta and at a higher cost.

I just released llm-anthropic 0.24 with support for both Sonnet 4.6 and Opus 4.6. Claude Code did most of the work - the new models had a fiddly amount of extra details around adaptive thinking and no longer supporting prefixes, as described in Anthropic's migration guide.

Here's what I got from:

uvx --with llm-anthropic llm 'Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle' -m claude-sonnet-4.6

The pelican has a jaunty top hat with a red band. There is a string between the upper and lower beaks for some reason. The bicycle frame is warped in the wrong way.

The SVG comments include:

<!-- Hat (fun accessory) -->

I tried a second time and also got a top hat. Sonnet 4.6 apparently loves top hats!

For comparison, here's the pelican Opus 4.5 drew me in November:

The pelican is cute and looks pretty good. The bicycle is not great - the frame is wrong and the pelican is facing backwards when the handlebars appear to be forwards.There is also something that looks a bit like an egg on the handlebars.

And here's Anthropic's current best pelican, drawn by Opus 4.6 on February 5th:

Slightly wonky bicycle frame but an excellent pelican, very clear beak and pouch, nice feathers.

Opus 4.6 produces the best pelican beak/pouch. I do think the top hat from Sonnet 4.6 is a nice touch though.

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, llm, anthropic, claude, llm-pricing, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llm-release, claude-code

The Uncanny Artifice of George Washington

I got a number of fascinating replies to yesterday’s post about the federal calendar and presidential holidays, specifically whether we should ditch Columbus Day in favor of a national holiday celebrating Abraham Lincoln. I also learned a bit more about how Lincoln never got a national holiday originally because the states of the old Confederacy, whose representatives and senators had outsized seniority throughout the 20th century, simply wouldn’t hear of it. Indeed, the 1968 federal law which clustered federal holidays into long weekends and which in effect though not formally consolidated Washington’s birthday into “President’s Day” was still under the shadow of southern resistance to anything commemorating Abraham Lincoln.

Today I want to step back to Washington himself. As some of you know, I spent most of my 20s getting an American history PhD. My advisor, Gordon Wood, was and is a renowned historian of the Revolutionary and post-Revolutionary era. I note this to say that I spent a lot of time studying that period in which George Washington is in many ways the dominant figure. But I hadn’t really considered Washington as an individual until I wrote this New Yorker review essay about David McCullough’s 1776. As the book’s title suggests, it’s about the critical year of 1776, a year that was critical not simply as the year in which the United States declared its independence but also because it was the year that Washington had to get through with his army intact. The Americans didn’t win the Revolutionary War in 1776, but it was the year they could most easily have lost it. And the Americans mainly won the war by not losing it. I described it this way in that essay …

The key fact about the Revolutionary War is that the colonists didn’t have to win their independence from Britain so much as they had to fend off Britain’s efforts to snatch it back. Before the revolutionary crisis began, in the seventeen-sixties, British dominion had rested lightly on the American colonies. Merchants in port towns who shipped goods overseas had to contend with the King’s laws and tariffs, but few other Americans had much contact with either. In the century and a half after the first colonies were established, the mother country had tried to exert real control for only a few short spells. Each time, Crown and Commons soon shifted their attention to some other pressing matter, and the colonists were once more left to their own devices. Royal authority in America collapsed as swiftly as it did because it was scarcely entrenched to begin with, not because there was overwhelming support for the patriot cause.

But McCullough’s book got me thinking about something different about Washington, who is a much more fascinating character than the man we usually see in the history books — fascinating in a paradoxical and deeply artificial way.

Washington wasn’t terribly creative. He wrote nothing of note. He didn’t have terribly original ideas. He wasn’t even always that good of a general. But the people around him pretty universally held him in a sort of awe. Almost all the craftier and more notable members of the Revolutionary generation had great confidence in his presence, the fact that he was around, the fact that he was commanding what then passed as the United States Army. They felt reassured that he would be the first president. So what was that confidence about?

The gist is that Washington had an immense reserve of personal dignity and a kind of stoic, impassive demeanor. For many Americans of the late 18th century he seemed to embody the kind of classical and republican ideals the educated members of his generation had all been raised on. He was Cincinnatus surrendering dictatorial power when his service to his country was done. He could be portrayed as embodying the values of this or that classical figure at various points in his career.

What’s so interesting to me about this is that it was all an act. From early in life, Washington was extremely focused on modeling himself on various classical figures and virtues and in a way play-acting the person we know as George Washington. It is a tremendous act of self-fashioning because he play-acted this role, this person for so long that in a way he became that person. Washington wrote no Gettysburg Address or Declaration of Independence. His document was himself, the character of “George Washington.” And that idea of self-fashioning, the idea that we can build new things, become new people by logic and effort and self-discipline untrammeled by the past is very much part of the English-speaking world’s late 18th century Enlightenment ethos that he and his peers were reared on.

Another excerpt from that essay …

Yet here is the crook in the path, something that McCullough reveals but never quite explains: it was all a put-on, an act. For us today, character is bound up with authenticity; someone with “character” doesn’t put on airs, doesn’t tailor his actions to impress others. Those weren’t the standards of Washington’s era. When the young Henry Knox first met Washington, he marvelled at the General’s “vast ease and dignity.” Such ease was not acquired without effort. As McCullough says, Washington was a man of “almost excessive self-command.” From an early age, he submitted his entire persona to the most rigorous discipline, shaping everything from his physical bearing to the degree of intimacy that he allowed himself with friends and associates. By the time he took command of the Army, outside Boston, in July, 1775, there was little about him that was not the product of years of conscious artifice. Few men could have been more keenly sensitive to their standing in other men’s eyes or more acutely aware of how words and deeds could diminish or enhance their reputation.

As I note here, we are today all about authenticity. The age that unfolded in the decades after Washington’s death in 1799 was similarly focused on the authentic self. Artifice was fakery. But Washington comes from a different era, one that revered self-mastery and playing out certain stock virtues. Look closely at John Adams and he’s a man riddled with self-doubt and angst and kind of terribly neurotic. Jefferson is glib and dilettantish and can’t help but be a hypocrite again and again. You can look at him and see a kind of renaissance man with a hand in everything or you can see a clever and privileged man who just took a stab at various things. You can’t really get into Washington, not even reading his letters. He comes down to us as a figure carved out of white marble. And when you see him up close in his letters or accounts of his conversations he’s also at least half white marble. He had made himself into this avatar of the classical republican virtues that his peers had all been raised on, despite spending their early lives loyal to a king. It worked.

This makes Washington a very hard person to figure. I had always thought of Washington as not really in the league of Lincoln. He’s Washington because he was the first president. And he was the military commander of the Revolutionary War. And you kind of have to say the first one was awesome because that’s just what you do. But what did he do besides kind of act out of a series of roles over about 25 years and not make any big mistakes?

Well, that is what he did.

But you look closely and there really are these repeated moments where his presence, the vision of him and this kind of impassive dependability held everything together. And it wasn’t some native genius in the old sense of the word or some charisma. It was an act of will, a grinding down of all the spontaneity and expressions of one’s inner self — with our torments and our dreams and fears and exuberances — that we today so laud. He made himself into this almost-marble-in-life actor-out of resolve, disinterest, self-denial and republican virtue. And that really did play a crucial role in holding together and then shaping the young republic.

Liberal AI

Can AI be liberal? In what sense? One answer points to the liberal insistence on freedom of choice, understood as a product of the commitment to personal autonomy and individual dignity. Mill and Hayek are of course defining figures here, emphasizing the epistemic foundations for freedom of choice. “Choice Engines,” powered by AI and authorized or required by law, might promote liberal goals (and in the process, produce significant increases in human welfare). A key reason is that they can simultaneously (1) preserve autonomy, (2) respect dignity, and (3) help people to overcome inadequate information and behavioral biases, which can produce internalities, understood as costs that people impose on their future selves, and also externalities, understood as costs that people impose on others. Different consumers care about different things, of course, which is a reason to insist on a high degree of freedom of choice, even in the presence of internalities and externalities. AI-powered Choice Engines can respect that freedom, not least through personalization. Nonetheless, AI-powered Choice Engines might be enlisted by insufficiently informed or self-interested actors, who might exploit inadequate information or behavioral biases, and thus co5mpromise liberal goals. AI-powered Choice Engines might also be deceptive or manipulative, again compromising liberal goals, and legal safeguards are necessary to reduce the relevant risks. Illiberal or antiliberal AI is not merely imaginable; it is in place. Still, liberal AI is not an oxymoron. It could make life less nasty, less brutish, less short, and less hard – and more free.

By Cass Sunstein.

The post Liberal AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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★ Apple Releases iOS 26 Adoption Rates, and They’re Pretty Much in Line With the Last Few Years

Speaking of iOS 26, here’s Joe Rossignol reporting for MacRumors:

Apple has shared updated iOS 26 and iPadOS 26 adoption figures, revealing how many iPhones and iPads are running those software versions. These adoption numbers are based on iPhones and iPads that transacted on the App Store on February 12, 2026, according to Apple. The statistics are as follows:

  • 74% of all iPhones introduced in the last four years are running iOS 26.
  • 66% of all iPhones are running iOS 26.
  • 66% of all iPads introduced in the last four years are running iPadOS 26.
  • 57% of all iPads are running iPadOS 26.

Here is how that compares to the iOS 18 adoption figures that Apple shared based on iPhones and iPads that transacted on the App Store on January 21, 2025:

  • 76% of all iPhones introduced in the last four years were running iOS 18.
  • 68% of all iPhones were running iOS 18.
  • 63% of all iPads introduced in the last four years were running iPadOS 18.
  • 53% of all iPads were running iPadOS 18.

Via the Internet Archive (seriously, what would we do without them?), here are the numbers Apple released for iOS 17 two years ago, with data collected on 4 February 2024:1

  • 76% of all iPhones introduced in the last four years were running iOS 17.
  • 66% of all iPhones were running iOS 17.
  • 61% of all iPads introduced in the last four years were running iPadOS 17.
  • 53% of all iPads were running iPadOS 17.

These are the numbers I was waiting for when I followed up three weeks ago about the silly stories, based on obviously bogus data from StatCounter, that iOS 26’s adoption rate was absurdly low. I wrote then:

What’s going on, quite obviously, is that Apple itself is slow-rolling the automatic updates to iOS 26. For years now Apple has steered users, via default suggestions during device setup, to adopt settings to allow OS updates to happen automatically, including updates to major new versions. Apple tends not to push these automatic updates to major new versions of iOS until two months after the .0 release in September. This year that second wave was delayed by about two weeks, and there’s now a third wave starting midway through January. It’s a different pattern from previous years — but it’s a pattern Apple controls. A large majority of users of all Apple devices get major OS updates when, and only when, their devices automatically update. Apple has been slower to push those updates to iOS 26 than they have been for previous iOS updates in recent years. With good reason! iOS 26 is a more significant — and buggier — update than iOS 18 and 17 were.

At least according to Apple’s own numbers from the App Store, iOS 26 adoption is pretty much exactly in line with the rates for iOS 18 and 17. There’s no conclusion that should be drawn from this about the general opinion of the Liquid Glass UI design or iOS 26 overall. People may love it, hate it, be ambivalent about it, or not even notice — but most of them let their iPhones (and iPads) via automatic upgrades pushed by Apple. Their opinions about iOS 26 form after they install it.


  1. Looking at these last three years, the only real trend has nothing to do with the iPhone. It’s that the adoption rate for iPads — in both categories, recent models and all models — is trending upward. ↩︎

How to Force Restart an iPhone

Apple Support:

If iPhone isn’t responding, and you can’t turn it off then on, try forcing it to restart.

  1. Press and quickly release the volume up button.
  2. Press and quickly release the volume down button.
  3. Press and hold the side button.
  4. When the Apple logo appears, release the side button.

I upgraded my iPhone 17 Pro to iOS 26.3 this morning (straight from the release version of iOS 26.2 — I skipped the 26.3 betas), and by noon, it was stuck at the lock screen. Pressing and holding the side button and either of the volume buttons at the same time did not bring up the expected screen with “Slide to power off”, “Medical ID”, and “Emergency Call”.

The above force-restart method worked, though. I knew it existed but I’d forgotten how to do it. Luckily, I was sitting right at my Mac, so I had another machine to use to look it up. I’d have been in a jam, though, if I’d been somewhere with only my (stuck) iPhone, so I think this one is worth memorizing.

Step 3, the “press and hold the side button” step, takes quite a few seconds before the screen turns off. So I’m memorizing the process as three steps:

  1. Click the volume up button.
  2. Click the volume down button.
  3. Press and hold the side button, patiently, until the Apple logo appears.
 ★ 

Apple Invites Media to Special ‘Experience’ in New York, London, and Shanghai on March 4

Hartley Charlton, MacRumors:

Apple invited select members of the media to the event in three major cities around the world. It is simply described as a “special Apple Experience,” and there is no further information about what it may entail. The invitation features a 3D Apple logo design composed of yellow, green, and blue discs.

It is notable that Apple is specifically using the word “experience,” rather than “event.” Unlike a full live-streamed event from Apple Park, the March 4 event in other cities is likely to be smaller in scale.

Among the products expected soon — either by annual schedule predictability, or via the rumor mill — are the iPhone 17e, an updated iPad Air (going from the M3 to M4), an updated base-model iPad (going from A16 to A18), updated MacBook Pros with the M5 Pro and Max, updated MacBook Airs (going from M4 to M5 — the M4 models were released in early March last year), and, per Gurman, the long-rumored new lower-cost MacBook with an A18 chip (a “MacBook e”, if you will, although I certainly don’t think that will be the name — my guess is Apple will just call it “MacBook” without an adjective).

What strikes me is that March 4 — the “experience” day — is a Wednesday. So my spitball guess is that they announce all these products via Newsroom press releases, day-by-day. Like, say, the iPhone 17e on Monday, new iPad(s) on Tuesday, and new MacBooks on Wednesday. And then the “experience” will be a hands-on thing with in-person demos. Spread the announcements out across a few days, but then have in-person events for members of the media to get a hands-on experience with all of them, station-by-station, without needing to produce an Apple Event keynote film.

 ★ 

A Second Cyclone Slams Madagascar

Storm clouds swirl over northwestern Madagascar in a satellite image acquired on February 10, 2026. The eye of tropical cyclone Gezani is visible directly east of Toamasina as the storm approaches land.
February 10, 2026

For the second time in two weeks, a powerful tropical cyclone struck Madagascar. On January 31, Fytia battered the remote northwestern coast of the island with destructive winds and torrential rains that displaced thousands of people. Less than two weeks later, Gezani made a direct hit on one of the island’s largest cities before sweeping past areas that Fytia had just flooded.

The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image of Gezani as it neared Madagascar on February 10, 2026. At the time, the storm was undergoing rapid intensification. Its sustained winds peaked at 200 kilometers (125 miles) per hour before making landfall at Category 3 hurricane strength.

According to meteorologists with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the storm developed amid conditions “highly favorable” to strengthening, including sea surface temperatures above 28 degrees Celsius (82 degrees Fahrenheit), wind shear below 20 kilometers (12 miles) per hour, and an unusually moist atmosphere. As the storm passed near Toamasina, Madagascar’s second-largest city, satellites that contribute to NASA’s IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM) product measured rain rates up to 4 centimeters (1.6 inches) per hour.

The deluge caused widespread flooding in Toamasina and several other parts of the island. Preliminary damage assessments from Madagascar’s National Office for Risk and Disaster Management linked the storm to dozens of deaths, hundreds of injuries, and damage to more than 27,000 homes. Reports from news outlets and humanitarian groups described chaotic conditions in Toamasina, with widespread power outages, numerous collapsed roofs, and a lack of clean water.

January 29, 2026
February 14, 2026
In this false-color image acquired before the flooding, the Rianila and Rongaronga rivers merge near the town of Brickaville. River water appears dark blue against a bright green background of farmland and savanna forest.
In this false-color image acquired before the flooding, the Rianila and Rongaronga rivers merge near the town of Brickaville. River water appears dark blue against a bright green background of farmland and savanna forest.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
In a false-color image acquired after the flooding, waterways appear much wider, and floodwater covers large portions of the landscape west of the two rivers, both north and south of Brickaville.
In a false-color image acquired after the flooding, waterways appear much wider, and floodwater covers large portions of the landscape west of the two rivers, both north and south of Brickaville.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
In this false-color image acquired before the flooding, the Rianila and Rongaronga rivers merge near the town of Brickaville. River water appears dark blue against a bright green background of farmland and savanna forest.
In this false-color image acquired before the flooding, the Rianila and Rongaronga rivers merge near the town of Brickaville. River water appears dark blue against a bright green background of farmland and savanna forest.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
In a false-color image acquired after the flooding, waterways appear much wider, and floodwater covers large portions of the landscape west of the two rivers, both north and south of Brickaville.
In a false-color image acquired after the flooding, waterways appear much wider, and floodwater covers large portions of the landscape west of the two rivers, both north and south of Brickaville.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
January 29, 2026
February 14, 2026

Before and After

January 29, 2026 – February 14, 2026

The OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 captured this false-color image of severe flooding near Brickaville, just south of Toamasina, on February 14, 2026 (right). For comparison, the left image shows the same area before the storm. Villages and farmland along the Rongaronga River appear particularly hard hit. Crops commonly grown in this area include rice, vanilla, lychees, black pepper, cloves, and cinnamon, according to researchers from the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development.

Madagascar is one of the most cyclone-prone countries in Africa, with about six storms typically affecting the island each year and two making direct landfall. The cyclone season generally runs from November through April, with peak activity between January and March.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview and Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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The post A Second Cyclone Slams Madagascar appeared first on NASA Science.

February 16, 2026

On February 13 and 14, President Donald J. Trump’s representatives filed three applications with the United States Patent and Trademark Office to trademark his name for future use on an airport. As trademark lawyer Josh Gerben of Gerben IP noted, the application also covers merchandise branded “President Donald J. Trump International Airport,” “Donald J. Trump International Airport,” and “DJT,” including “clothing, handbags, luggage, jewelry, watches, and tie clips.”

Because of the trademark filing, Gerben notes, any airport adopting the Trump name would have to get a license to use the name, potentially paying a licensing fee. Gerben emphasizes that while it is common for public officials to have landmarks named after them, “never in the history of the United States” has “a sitting president’s private company…sought trademark rights” before such a naming.

In October, Office of Management and Budget director Russell Vought withheld billions of dollars Congress appropriated for a tunnel between New York and New Jersey under the Hudson River, saying he wanted “to ensure funding is not flowing based on unconstitutional DEI principles.” Trump told Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) that he would release the funds if Schumer would agree to name Dulles Airport outside Washington, D.C., and New York City’s Penn Station after him.

After a Florida state lawmaker proposed putting Trump’s name on the Palm Beach International Airport, Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents today reported that the Florida legislature is currently pushing through measures to change the name of that airport to the “Donald J. Trump International Airport.” The amount of money proposed in Florida’s budget to make the change is $2,750,000, but Garcia notes this is likely a placeholder: the budget request is for $5.5 million.

The Trump grab for an airport named after him is just the latest grift in a presidential term that experts so far estimate has enriched the Trump family by at least $4 billion. That windfall includes merch, political contributions, and multiple cryptocurrency deals that have led, for example, to Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who manages the United Arab Emirates’ sovereign wealth fund, buying a 49% stake in the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto company for $500 million days before Trump took office. This deal put $187 million immediately into Trump family entities and at least $31 million into entities owned by the family of Steve Witkoff, whom Trump had just named his Middle East envoy.

“President Trump only acts in the best interests of the American public—which is why they overwhelmingly re-elected him to this office, despite years of lies and false accusations against him and his businesses from the fake news media,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said of the UAE deal. “President Trump’s assets are in a trust managed by his children. There are no conflicts of interest.”

Earlier this month, Trump, his sons Don Jr. and Eric, and the Trump Organization sued the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Treasury Department for $10 billion in damages after an IRS contractor during Trump’s own first term was convicted of leaking their tax information, along with that of thousands of other Americans who are not suing, to news outlets. Trump has control over the IRS, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he will write whatever check he is told to cut. This move advances Trump’s use of the presidency to enrich himself into the realm of autocratic rulers who move their country’s money to their own accounts.

In 1789, when George Washington took the oath of office as the first president of the United States of America, no one knew what to expect of leaders in a democratic republic. Washington understood that anything he did would become the standard for anyone who came after him. “I walk on untrodden ground,” he wrote in 1790, the year after he assumed the office of the presidency. “There is scarcely any part of my conduct w[hi]ch may not hereafter be drawn into precedent.”

After watching colonial lawmakers under royal rule demand payoffs before they would approve popular measures, Washington rejected the idea of profiting from the presidency. In his short Inaugural Address, he took the time to state explicitly that he would not accept any payments while in the presidency except for an official salary appropriated by Congress.

Washington noted that the support of the American people for the new government was key to its survival. He hailed the pledges of the new nation’s lawmakers to rule for the good of the whole nation, not for specific regions or partisan groups. He also predicted that the power of the government would come not from military might but from its determination to serve the needs of the public. He promised “that the foundations of our National policy will be laid in the pure and immutable principles of private morality; and the pre-eminence of a free Government, be exemplified by all the attributes which can win the affections of its Citizens, and command the respect of the world.”

Washington put a hopeful spin on human nature to launch the institution of the presidency, but the Framers had no illusions. They constructed the Constitution to pit men’s ambitions against each other so no individual could gain enough power to become a tyrant. Later, the rise of formal political parties in the 1830s guaranteed hawkish oversight of those in power by those out of it, exposing corruption or personal vices before those exhibiting them made it to the height of the government.

As recently as the 1970s, those systems held strongly enough that Republican senators warned Republican president Richard M. Nixon that the House was about to impeach him for obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and contempt of Congress for his actions during and after the Watergate break-in during which operatives tried to bug the headquarters of the Democratic National Convention. And, they told him, when the House impeached, the Senate—including Senate Republicans—would convict. They urged him to resign, which he did on August 8, 1974, the only president so far to resign the office of the presidency.

Since then, Republicans have fallen into the trap Washington warned against in his Farewell Address, putting party over country. Such partisanship, he said, would “distract the public councils and enfeeble the public administration,” agitate “the community with ill-founded jealousies and false alarms,” kindle “the animosity of one part against another,” foment “occasionally riot and insurrection,” and open “the door to foreign influence and corruption, which find a facilitated access to the government itself through the channels of party passion. Thus the policy and the will of one country are subjected to the policy and will of another.”

Fierce partisanship would lead partisans to seek absolute power through an individual who “turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation on the ruins of public liberty,” Washington warned. And as Washington predicted, today’s Republicans have replaced the prerogatives of Congress with loyalty to Trump.

They have also ignored the vices of Trump and his loyalists. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. explained to a podcaster on February 12 why he doesn’t worry about Covid. “I’m not scared of a germ,” he said. “I used to snort cocaine off of toilet seats.”

Jonathan Landay and Douglas Gillison of Reuters reported yesterday that Office of Management and Budget director Russell Vought took $15 million in unlawfully impounded money that Congress had appropriated for the U.S. Agency for International Development, which fed starving children, for his own security detail. Michelle Hackman, Josh Dawsey, and Tarini Parti of the Wall Street Journal reported that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and her affair partner Corey Lewandowski travel in a $70 million luxury 737 MAX jet with a private cabin in the back.

Over all are the horrors of the Epstein files, in which Trump’s name appears so often observers have suggested it is the one place that could legitimately be rebranded with Trump’s name as the Trump-Epstein files.

And so, Washington’s dire warnings have come true.

Profiting off his name is only part of why Trump appears to want to splash it anywhere he can: so far, the U.S. Institute of Peace, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, a new class of battleships, and perhaps “The President Donald J. Trump Ballroom” where the East Wing of the White House used to be.

It’s also about his legacy. In a tour of George Washington’s Virginia home, Mount Vernon, in April 2019, Trump expressed surprise that the first president hadn’t named any of his property after himself. “If he was smart, he would’ve put his name on it,” Trump said. “You’ve got to put your name on stuff or no one remembers you.”

In fact, Americans remember and revere Washington because of his reluctance to promote himself, not in spite of it. John Trumbull’s portrait of him resigning his wartime commission after negotiators had signed the Treaty of Paris ending the Revolutionary War hangs in the U.S. Capitol as a moment that defined the United States: a leader voluntarily giving up power rather than becoming a dictator. Then, when voters made him president of the new United States in 1789, he refused a second time to become a king, emphasizing that he was the servant of the people and then, after two terms, voluntarily handing power to a successor chosen not by him but by the people.

As Washington predicted, the presidents Americans revere despite their faults—George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin Delano Roosevelt—are those who used the enormous power of the U.S. government not for their own aggrandizement but to secure and expand the rights and the prosperity of the American people.

Trump has made no secret of wanting his image carved onto Mount Rushmore in South Dakota, where sculptor Gutzon Borglum carved the busts of Presidents George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, and Abraham Lincoln in the Black Hills of the Lakotas. Beginning his sculpture in 1927, Borglum chose President Washington because he had founded the nation, Jefferson because he had launched westward expansion, Lincoln because he had saved the United States from destruction, and Roosevelt because he had protected working men and helped fit democracy to industrial development.

But Trump’s interest in being added to Mount Rushmore does not appear to be related to a desire to advance the interests of the American people. In September 2025 the IRS granted tax-exempt status to the Donald Trump Mount Rushmore Memorial Legacy, making it a charity that can accept tax-free donations.

Happy Presidents Day 2026.

Notes:

https://www.gerbenlaw.com/blog/trumps-private-company-files-trademark-for-president-donald-j-trump-international-airport/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/white-house-freezes-18-billion-new-york-city-infrastructure-funding-rcna234928

https://punchbowl.news/article/white-house/trump-dulles-penn-station/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-asked-dulles-penn-station-named-exchange-gateway-money-released-rcna257708

Seeking Rents
Buried in the budget: Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump and Newsmax
This is Seeking Rents, a newsletter and podcast devoted to producing original journalism — and lifting up the work of others — about Florida politics, with an emphasis on the ways that big businesses and other special interests influence public policy in the state. Seeking Rents is produced by veteran investigative journalist…
Read more

https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-white-house-ballroom-after-officials/story?id=126843455

https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/american_originals/inaugtxt.html

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/10/donald-trump-mount-vernon-george-washington-1264073

https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Washington/05-04-02-0363

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/01/politics/trump-family-crypto-world-liberty-financial-uae

https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/news/trumps-10b-irs-suit-over-tax-data-leaks-raises-legal-issues/

https://newrepublic.com/post/206211/treasury-secretary-bessent-trump-irs-lawsuit-taxpayers

https://watergate.info/impeachment/articles-of-impeachment/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/13/healthcare-groups-rfk-jr-resign-cocaine-toilet-seats

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-uses-usaid-funds-budget-director-voughts-security-documents-show-2026-02-13/

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/chaos-kristi-noem-homeland-security-f095ac95

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/15/us/politics/trumps-american-cult-of-personality.html

Lincoln Borglum and Gweneth Reed Dendooven, Mount Rushmore: Heritage of America (Las Vegas: KC Publications 1980), pp. 1–19.

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/farewell-address

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/27/us/mount-rushmore-trump.html

Bluesky:

zacheverson.com/post/3m6do2cinpk2s

danielsgoldman.dg4ny.co/post/3mezkl4rtd225

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"Observability Engineering": a book so nice, we wrote it twice

Last week I got to meet Martin Fowler for the first time in person. This was an exciting moment for me. Martin ranks high on my personal pantheon; he is, so far as I can tell, hardly ever wrong.

Martin Fowler, me, and Nathen Harvey, at the happy hout for Gergely’s Pragmatic Summit! Not pictured: my glass of wine, Nathen’s box of fucks to give

After letting me know that he “only hugs on this side of the Rockies” (noted), the topic of writing books came up, to which he drawled,

“The second edition should always be shorter. I always made my second editions shorter. Shorter books are better books.”

God dammit, Martin.. Now you tell me. 🙈

In completely unrelated news, our last few chapters for “Observability Engineering, 2nd edition” go out to tech reviewers this week! This puts us on track for dead tree publication in June, although chapters will be available earlier for O’Reilly subscribers as well as behind an email gate on the Honeycomb site.

What’s different about the second edition?

Almost everything. The only chapters that carry over some material are the ones on sampling, retriever (columnar store), and a smattering of the SLO stuff—maybe 10% all told? And we’ve added a monstrous amount of new material.

So no, it will not be shorter than the first edition. It is almost twice as long.1 (Sorry!)

On the bright side, I do think it will be clearer, more usable, and useful to a wider range of contributors, all over the org chart, than our messy little first edition ever was.

The first edition was a spaghetti mess

Books, as I understand, are like children; if you made them, you are not allowed to say you aren’t proud of them.

So fine, I won’t say it. But I think we can all privately agree that the first edition was a bit of a hot mess.

No shade on my wonderful co-authors, Liz and George, or our O’Reilly editors, or myself for that matter. We did our best, but now, with the clarity of hindsight, it’s easy to see all the ways the ground was shifting under us as we wrote.

When we started the book in 2018, Honeycomb was the only observability company, and our definition of observability—high cardinality, high dimensionality, explorability—was the only definition. By the time the book came out in 2021, everyone was rebranding their products as observability, Gartner had waded into the fray.. it was a mess.

Perhaps the mature thing to do would be to have gone back and rewritten the book in light of the evolving market definition. But while I won’t speak for my co-authors, after 3.5 years, I was pretty fucking desperate to be done.

Artist’s rendering of the traditional authorial glow of pride, joy and deep satisfaction upon completing any book manuscript

I swore I would never go through that again. And when O’Reilly first approached us about writing a second edition, my first reaction was blind panic.

The second edition has a clearer mission

But once my lizard brain calmed down, I realized two things. Number one, it absolutely needed to be written; number two, I definitely wanted to help write it.

SO MUCH has changed. SO MUCH needs saying. When we met up in June to pull together a new outline, it seemed to just flow out of us.

A few of the many things that were not at all clear in 2018, but are crystal clear today:

  • Who we are writing for (software engineers)

  • What they are doing (instrumenting their code and analyzing it in production, with and without AI)

  • What observability means to analysts and the market at large (literally anything to do with software telemetry)

  • The integrations game is over, and OpenTelemetry has won

  • Most companies still don’t have real observability. And they don’t know it. 😕

I am excited and incredibly grateful for the opportunity to take a second whack at this book in the era of AI. Not how I thought I’d feel, but I will take it.

The first edition of “Observability Engineering” was translated into Japanese, Korean, and Chinese (I believe it’s Mandarin?).

Writing With the Stars🌟

We brought Austin Parker on as a fourth co-author very early, with a special emphasis on topics related to OpenTelemetry and AI.

We also invited a number of people we admire to contribute in a variety of formats… guest chapters, use cases, stories, embedded advice, and more:

  • Jeremy Morrell on how to instrument your code effectively

  • Hanson Ho and Matt Klein on observability for mobile and frontend

  • Kesha Mykhailov and Darragh Curran from Intercom on fast feedback loops and developing with LLMs

  • Dale McDiarmid on how to use Clickhouse for observability workloads

  • Rick Clark on the mechanics of driving organizational transformation in order to build and learn at the speed of AI

  • Frank Chen, a returning champion from our first edition, wrote about ontologies for your instrumentation chain

  • Phillip Carter wrote about eval pipelines and instrumenting LLMs

  • Mat Vine has a case study about moving ANZ from thresholds to SLIs/SLOs

  • Mike Kelly on managing telemetry pipelines for fun and profit

  • Hugo Santos on how to instrument your CI/CD pipelines

  • Peter Corless made our chapter on “Build vs Buy (vs Open Source)” immensely better and more well-rounded

What a fucking list, huh? 🙌

Truly, this book is a veritable rogues gallery of engineers and companies we look up to (including some of our own direct competitors 😉). The one thing all these people have in common (besides being great writers with a unique perspective, and people who are willing to return our emails) is that we share a similar vision for observability and the future of software development.

Spotted this week: Nathen Harvey, walking around, giving out fucks by the handful.

In addition to the sections written for software engineers on “Instrumentation Fundamentals” and “Analysis Workflows”, both with and without AI, we have a section on “Observability Use Cases” and another on “Technical Deep Dives”, which lets us cover even more ground.

Which brings us to the last section, the one that I personally signed up to write.

Part 6: “Observability Governance”

When we met in June, I successfully pitched Liz and George on adding one final section: “Observability Governance”. Unlike the rest of the book, these chapters would be written for the observability team, or the platform engineering team, or whoever is wrestling with problems like cost containment and tool migrations.

I sketched out a few ideas and started writing. July passed, August, September…I was cranking out one governance chapter per month, right on track, planning to wrap up well before November.

In September, halfway through my last chapter, I reached out to the internet for advice. “Are you an experienced software buyer? I could use some help.

The response was ✨tremendous✨; my inbox swelled with interesting stories, bitter rants, lessons learned, and practical tips from engineers and executives alike.

But when I tried to finish the chapter, my engine stalled out. I could not write. I kept doggedly blocking off time on my calendar, silencing interruptions, staring at drafts, writing and rewriting, trying every angle. Four weeks passed with no progress made.

Five weeks. Six.

Cliffhanger!

Tomorrow I’ll publish the second half of this story, in which the due date for my chapters comes and goes, and I end up throwing away everything I had written and starting over from scratch. Good times!

1

If we ever write a third edition, I swear on the lives of my theoretical children that it will be MUCH shorter than this one.

Zoltan Istvan doesn't understand why we're not listening.

So over the past few weeks I started reaching out to every single candidate for the upcoming California gubernatorial race. I’ve contacted Democrats and Republicans, Green Party members and Independents. And my goal, truly, is to feature every single (willing) participant in a Q&A in this space. I am not here to insult people I disagree with, or hype up people who share my beliefs. I want to hear their views, their takes, their motivations for seeking a powerful-yet-frustrating position.

And then, I want to share it with you, the Truth OC community.

So (drumroll, please) …

I bring to you Zoltan Istvan, a candidate for governor who is no stranger to elections. In 2016, he, ran for president on the ticket of his own Transhumanist Party. In 2018, he ran for California governor as a Libertarian. Then, in 2019, he ran for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination against Donald Trump. Now, he’s trying to head our state—as a Democrat.

To Istvan—a Los Angeles native, former National Geographic reporter, former nonprofit director, current owner of myriad worldwide vineyard properties—this has never been about party, but enlightenment. He identifies as a proud and unapologetic transhumanist—aka: the belief in improving human individuals via science and technology. He also thinks we, as a species, are utterly unprepared for the AI reckoning that is upon us, and that politicians of all stripes are missing the mark on an existential threat.

I spoke with Istvan over Zoom this past Sunday. At the time, he was uncertain whether he will remain in the race. You can learn more about the man and his campaign right here, and you can donate to his run here.

Also, I have posted the full video of the interview below, and typed out the transcript.

Ladies and gentlemen, meet Zoltan Istvan …

JEFF PEARLMAN:Well, first of all, thank you for doing this obviously, I appreciate it. Lemme ask you first, because when I reached out to you, you had some, I guess some doubts or you were kind of debating. Are you still running or have you decided not to run for governor this time around?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Well, I’m definitely still running for California governor. We are having some doubts. We’re in some final stages of trying to raise money and I’m worried that if we don’t raise that money we won’t be able to continue. But the registration date for officially declaring is I think March 6. So we still have a few weeks to that kind of point.”

JEFF PEARLMAN:So why would one decide to even try running for governor when it is number one, as you’ve said in the past, kind of a long shot bid; and number two, kind of a thankless job. Why would one even want to run?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “To be honest, I think for me, the main reason I decided to run was because artificial intelligence is posing such a huge threat right now to not just California, but to United States and the world and none of the other politicians are talking about, and it’s my field of expertise as someone who’s been in it 15, 20 years writing about it. So I felt like there was a need for someone to represent that issue and that problem, and of course my solution for it is a universal basic income, which is something that I have been promoting and talking about since, in fact, even before Andrew Yang put it in the mainstream media.

“So I supported that and if I was on the ballot and you get your little line right underneath, you’d be like, BASIC INCOME ADVOCATE. And that’s really what I’m trying to do here. I feel like without that in the system, people don’t realize what kind of job apocalypse we’re going to have. I mean, I feel like it’s just 12 to 18 months away. My campaign might be a little early for addressing this issue right now, but it probably won’t be very early by 2027, 2028.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “I’m always amazed, as we’ve seen right now, the absolute decimation of any climate protections, any remaining climate protections and people generally just going like, ‘oh, well what’s on TV? Who’s going to win the Super Bowl? Oh, what am I going to have for dinner?’ Do you feel the same? Like, ‘Oh, AI, this is great. I can create a funny cartoon of my head,’ and ‘Oh, I can look up a recipe for a tofu.’ Are you staring at all this thinking ‘You people don’t understand the reckoning that is coming’?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: "I think it amazes me that people don’t see what’s coming. There is a reckoning and you’re a hundred percent right in the sense that something major or something transformative is happening to the human race, not just the economy. This time we’re talking about everybody because, if AI takes 90% of the jobs and we’re talking about a depression on a scale the United States has never, ever seen in my opinion, we’re going to need to do something about it. But you have so many distractions. Netflix has their new series out or there’s a Super Bowl and everyone’s bashing Trump.

“Okay, look, I’m not a fan of the guy either, but the point of the story is what seems the most important thing to me in the world right now is that you train for a career for 15 years … let’s say you went to graduate school, something like that, and that career will no longer exist, and whatever training you have won’t really apply unless maybe you want to be a barista at a Starbucks, which probably isn’t going to work for you.

“The whole world’s about to be transformed and no one’s talking about it. And I’ll tell you why. It’s because any time a politician opens their mouth about this, they lose votes. It’s just … there’s no winning in this topic. That’s the problem here. And even talking about a base income, sure people like free money, but it also means you’re never going to ever have the opportunity to probably become very wealthy because the base income will kind of keep you right in place. Yes, you’ll have food and security and hopefully housing and things like that, but the American dream is lost. And so a lot of our campaign is trying to talk about rewriting or redefining that American dream, but nobody’s listening. Everybody’s just interested in whatever’s happening in the Super Bowl or whatever new scandal on the Internet. Social media has become a complete disease that distracts people from real issues. But capitalism is moving forward for better or worse, robots are coming for everyone’s jobs and I think a huge transformative change is going to be happening and it probably won’t be good for a few years until we have government step in and figure out how to run a new nation that uses automation from us every job.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “How would a basic income plan work, and what is the direct correlation between a basic income plan and the rise and terrifying expansion of AI?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Well, let me just say first off that I support universal basic income, but it can be universal high income, it can be universal dividend income. It could be a whole bunch of different ways that you might kind of tackle the issue. But the point of the story is that you have to have something happen in the age of automation. So basically we have been predicting that 50% of California jobs would be replaced by AI and automation by the time the next governor’s term ends. So that’d be like four and a half years from now. And the problem is people are like, ‘Oh, I’ll just get another job’ or ‘I’ll do this’ or ‘It’ll never take my plumbing job.’ They don’t realize robots are going to be tied in with these AI systems, those robots are going to be able to do plumbing jobs, going to be able to do construction jobs, not just white collar jobs.

“So basic income gives you something I think, in addition to the welfare services, that would actually say, ‘OK, well let’s say it’s $11200 a month or $1,500 a month.’ In the best case scenario, it would at least be like, ‘Now hopefully I can rent something. Hopefully I have enough food, hopefully I can start paying for healthcare and things like that.’ It would just be in many ways a Band Aid to make it so that you can get by. Hopefully, though, there would be an age of abundance that comes from our artificial intelligence. Like our plan was to give a robot to every household over the first governor’s term, and these robots are going to watch your kids, cook for you, do dishes. This is already sort of happening. I mean, very rich people are starting to put robots in their houses right now and have them undo the dishwasher.

“So it sounds crazy to talk about it, but it is really happening much more quickly than people realize. So it’s very realistic. I think that within two or three years time, many California households—they’ll have a car, they could have a robot that actually does chores. But this will make your life easier. There’ll be more abundance, more time to do other things, and eventually these robots will be able to build your houses, do everything for you, work for you, things like that. And eventually we might come to an age of abundance where it’s not so much about income anymore, but more just these machines that do everything for you and that we don’t need so much. Now, that’s a little bit more high-line thinking and is still sci-fi, but what we’re really concerned about right now is this transition between the next four or five years where AI and robots take a lot of jobs that are out there, the majority of them. And what do people do in the interim to just get by and survive while the government’s wrangling with this real issue that humans are probably not going to be doing much physical or any kind of work for income any longer?”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “So whenever a new technology comes along, I feel like the point will be made by the people distributing the technology that, ‘Well, X will lead to Y. So with the expansion of AI, we will need more AI-related jobs. It will open up a new industry of AI … whatever, technicians, AI scientists, AI programmers. Is that just a stupid and mindless sort of viewpoint?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Well, it’s certainly not stupid or mindless, but it is definitely wrong. I mean, if you’re already looking like 99.9, well I guess 99%, let’s say 98% of engineers are now being outdone by AI. Some 98% of coders are now being outdone by AI, and that’s going to go to every single field here shortly. If architecture is 60% AI, probably by two to three months from now, it’ll be 70 to 80% AI. So it’s just getting so fast and so good. So there is no creation of new jobs. It may create something for a few months, but AI will catch up. And I’ve been saying this before, a lot of people are very upset about the H-1B visa issue and immigration, this and that, but you even had Hillary come out the other day say, well, maybe they went too far with immigration.

“Listen, the world is changing. I completely don’t support ICE, but I think people have to realize there is no reason to have immigration come into the United States or California anymore, because of there are not going to be any jobs. So even though I would support having all the people that are here become naturalized citizens and whatnot, I even have to say, ‘Wait a second—for a long time we were buffering our country by having immigrants come take jobs, make more money. It was great. That’s how America built itself.’ But at some point that’s going to switch to robots and the immigration’s going to actually be … how many more machines can you build? So there’s a fundamental dynamic, and I’m not trying to give you a moral issue here. I’m trying to just give you a philosophical thing that nobody seems to want to debate, that if all of a sudden I have vineyards, and all of a sudden robots can pick the grapes and do the vineyard business at half the price of labor, you have to ask yourself, as a business person, ‘What do I do?’

“Well, most business people are going to say, ‘I want the robots to do it, so therefore there’s no need for that job anymore with humans.’ And that’s happening all across the state, all across the country. And nobody wants to talk about this because it’s such a fire-point issue. But the reality is, the reality is that capitalism is making it so that we’re going to probably close our country up because there’s no economic way to help anyone anymore and they can’t contribute. And I wish people would at least try to start to think about this in those terms and not in terms of whether it’s right or wrong. My parents are immigrants, so they came here and I’ve always loved immigrants, but this is a different world we’re about to enter and I think it’s important that people discuss it openly. But I can tell you no, no one wants to talk about because it doesn’t win votes.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “Okay. The argument has always been immigrants will do the jobs that people who are born here don’t want to do. So when you go past a field, people are picking grapes. Well, people don’t want to do that. Are you saying that AI is going to ultimately create machines that do those jobs, or are you saying that these jobs that American born citizens don’t want to do, their jobs will be replaced and therefore those jobs will have more value for actual human beings?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “I think all jobs are going to be replaced. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s closer to 97, 98 percentile. I can’t think of, looking at humanoid robot demonstrations now today, literally today thinking that any job is safe, maybe like soccer is safe, or maybe being you want to go to a specific coffee shop because you like humans that will probably remain. Humans doing yoga. Maybe you don’t want a robot teaching you yoga. That’s fine. But when you talk about anything white collar, when you talk about selling cars, when you talk about these things, if it’s more efficient and you’re going to save money to buy a car, the salesman can be completely taken out the equation. The whole thing is going to be shifting.

“Even you and I here, it’s like, look, I know you have resources and you, you’re trying to do interviews and things like that. I saw your website, it’s awesome. Actually, by the way, congratulations on doing some really amazing work, but probably within six months it’s already here. There’s going to be an avatar If you have something else, it’s going to speak your perfect language. You can do these interviews, I can do these interviews. In fact, this technology already here, if you want to explore it, it’s all out. There are multiple companies working on you and I doing stuff. So everything is switching. Even things that you think are human can be done through AI and automation like this interview. And once that starts happening and people realize that they can be sitting on a beach in The Bahamas playing guitar or surfing, there’s a good swell or whatever it is … I’m not sure that people are going to be in the loop whatsoever.

“So I think it’s not even about immigrants or the good jobs. I don’t think in the two-to-four year window any of that survives except maybe some of those very select categories. I told you where humans are, what is desired. You absolutely do not want a machine teaching you yoga. You want that human companionship, but again, the yoga studio down the street is probably going to be making a lot more money. So you’re going to have to counter that with a yoga studio that uses automation. The world is changing.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “Do you feel for the better or for the worse?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “That’s a great question. I was always hopeful. So let me just say campaigning out in the streets, people are totally concerned with affordability. And you in your second question, talked about the environment, which is interesting because I used to hear a lot about the environment, but nowadays I hear only about affordability. No one can afford anything. Everyone’s one paycheck away from homelessness. So I feel like a basic income could really be something that’s useful or a robot in people’s houses could make their lives easier. So life would get better, but the problem is that it also could get very dark very quickly. There’s the big thing where what if the Chinese robots are made in China and China does some kind of weird thing. You have a Chinese robot in your house going crazy.

“I mean, there are a million things that can go wrong. And so I worry that, well, I think I am optimistic about the future with machines and automation and robots. I’m also very concerned that we’re entering an era very similar, I think, to the Cold War where you’re constantly worried about not just a threat, but a cataclysmic threat, a life-changing threat. And I think that’s the problem here with AI is … the five year window, but the 10 year window involves super intelligence, which is almost like inviting something alien into our world that might be dramatically smarter than this, that might not want humans on planet earth. So there’s that whole era, too. I don’t speak about that much in my campaign because that really throws off people. But the truth is, I’ve been in touch with plenty of the Silicon Valley elites and they’re working on this. They’re actually very optimistic to see how far they could build out AI into something that’s much smarter than themselves. And that really worries me, too, because I just don’t know if I want something smarter than myself on planet earth.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “Well, you’ve sort of gained a reputation for being one of the leading proponents of transhumanism, which is using science and technology to improve the human condition. Is this almost like where Frankenstein’s monster rises and Dr. Frankenstein, he’s like, ‘Wait, this isn’t what I was talking about!’ Has it gone fast …”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “That’s a perfect analogy. Look, I have taken a step back on my advocation for AI, that’s for sure. I still believe AI is really good for the world, robots and all that. But the problem is that it’s only good if it doesn’t become super intelligent. If it becomes super intelligent, then it becomes 50/50, maybe. The super intelligence is wonderful. It ushers us into this brand new scientific age. It takes care of human beings, it likes human beings. It brings in all these new ways to fix the environment, cure cancer, and do all that. Maybe that happens, but there’s the 50% other side where it says, ‘Oh, I don’t like you.’ It’s Terminator. ‘Get rid of these human beings that are using my resources, and I’m the smartest entity on planet.’ The human race has never dealt with a 50/50 existential risk.

“Even in the Cold War, it was still like 90/10 where well, we could always count on the Russians to not fire on us first and we’d not fire on them. We kind of had that as a basis. So the threat of nuclear war was probably never really that high, whereas with AI as super intelligence, we don’t know. So I think there is this really massive threat that we probably shouldn’t knock on the door of. But again, capitalism doesn’t allow for that. We’re constantly telling ourselves, well, we’re in a super intelligence race with China, with Russia, and we better get there first, but we don’t consider what happens when we’ve created something that’s even worse than China or Russia from a geopolitical point of view. And that’s very much where we’re going. And some of the coders that I’m talking to and programmers and a lot of it’s now done with AI are saying that that time is going to come probably by late 2027, 2028, when we have something that’s far superior to our human intelligence and with no means of controlling that.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “I was wondering, does it get frustrating for you? Obviously you’re an intelligent man, you’re a learned man, you’ve studied this. Is it hard to have something you strongly believe in that you consider a threat to humanity and people just aren’t interested? And I’m not saying people aren’t interested in AI, but people … just like climate change where people just are like, ‘Oh, robots, come on … blah, blah, blah, whatever. This is ridiculous.’ Do you ever feel like you’re the guy screaming, ‘The asteroid is coming!’ and people are just looking at their phones?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Jeff, lemme be honest, it’s been a pretty emotional week because here I am potentially folding my gubernatorial run, which is based on what I would say is the most important threat to California and United States and the world, and nobody has been listening. Okay. We’ve actually had a series of pretty large interviews around the Dave Asprey Show and the Young Turks. So we got actually a lot of traction out there. I can’t even say that we haven’t been around because we’ve done pretty well. But what’s crazy is that it seems like major media won’t cover the issue whatsoever. They don’t want to talk about AI. Nobody wants to talk about not just AI and job loss, which is in itself a huge massive issue, but they don’t want to talk about the super intelligence possibility, that catastrophic existential risk. It doesn’t do well with voters and it doesn’t do well with viewers.

“It’s like the Titanic. Nobody wants to see the iceberg and it’s just going to hit it and drown a lot of us until it’s too late. And it’s been incredibly frustrating. I thought when I started this campaign, it was going to be like, ‘Okay, I might not win, but at least I would bring it to the forefront of the attention of everyone in California and hopefully the United States.’ And that has, even if I have gotten quite a bit of media attention, nobody’s really cared. And it’s been shocking to me and very depressing. I’ve got to be honest—nobody wants to listen and we don’t really know what to do.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “I used to write for Sports Illustrated, and when I first got to the magazine, if you wanted to do a 5,000-word story about golf in Greenland, and it was a good story they would send you because it was a good story. Somewhere along the way, Time Life merged with AOL and blah, blah blah, and it all became about money, money, money. ‘We can’t do this because it’s not worth it. It’s not going to pay the bills.’ And I feel like when you say media isn’t covering this well, I feel like the corporatization of media, the consolidation of media, the unwillingness to anger advertisers, et cetera, et cetera … a message like yours gets lost, because they’re going to say, ‘Well, what is in this for us financially? What is the gain of telling this story of a long-shot governor candidate with some ideas about AI? What’s the payoff for us?’ And I think that’s what screws over people like you in 2026 …”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Yeah, and I totally agree with you, and I just feel like we’re in this world where if you can’t go viral or if you can’t get a message out, then you just can’t make a difference. So we have been banging our heads against door, man. This is the tenth month of my campaign almost finished now, and we have been at it 24 hours a day. I mean, this has been my life. I haven’t done anything. And even on college campuses, which is where we’ve been targeting a lot of people, the younger kids … the professors are not telling them. They’re studying marketing and they’re studying engineering and coding. And the professors say, ‘Don’t worry about AI, you’ll figure it out. It’ll help you with your job.’ And I’m like, no, no, no. It’s going to replace your job and you’re going to hit the world at 22 with college debt and no work ever again.

“Like somebody isn’t telling you the truth. And of course they’re not telling the truth because the professors probably realize their jobs are limited. The journalists realize their jobs are limited. Maybe even the CEOs realize their jobs are limited. So it’s just such a hard topic to talk about because it doesn’t do anyone good in the interim, but the truth is, it’s probably the most important message we have to be spreading out there right now. The point is, we can’t just let this happen and all of a sudden one day we wake up, the markets are off 40% because we realize 25% of jobs are going to be lost in the next 30 days and then another 75% over the next 12 to 18 months. This is not a way to run the country. What we need is someone to say, ‘Wow, we have a problem. We have to define how far we’re going to take this AI. Maybe we need to make some kind of agreements with China where we don’t develop a super intelligence. We all try to just go hand in hand.’ I mean, this is bigger than countries. This is an overarching theme of whether humanity will survive the AI onslaught. And nobody wants to think of it in terms like that. They’re just like, ‘Let’s make money right now …

“And lemme just say too, you brought up the idea with the environment. This is exactly a good case, the environment, A lot of people weren’t paying attention to temperatures rising, and all of a sudden they did start rising. Except the only difference is that the environment, you actually had a 10, 20, 30 year runway before something potentially really bad happened. But the AI thing is crazy because it’s probably a 12 to 18 month runway unless something changes and still nobody wants to talk about it. So humans have a problem with this. They have a problem of forecasting what could happen, even if it’s in their best interest, and maybe that’s a class that needs to be taught in grade school. I don’t know what it is, but I wish more people would be thinking, and I’m grateful that having me speak to you because at least we’re getting a little bit of the word out. But I mean, it’s going to hit one day and then everyone’s going to be like, why didn’t we do something? And that’s too late.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “I actually think we are basically the plot of a superhero movie, which is this, if you have the asteroid five feet from earth, we’ll do everything to blow up the asteroid. But if it’s a year and a half from earth, meh … it’s probably going to go a different way. We don’t have to deal with it. We are terrible at collectively dealing with long-term problems. It’s actually an indictment of our species as a whole.”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Yeah, I fully agree with you. That is one of our fundamental flaws. And maybe one day if we upload our brains or something crazy, we will correct that because then I’d be, like, I mean, a machine would never think like this. A machine would be like, ‘Oh wow, we have a problem. Let’s start working toward fixing the solution.’ But we’re on the Titanic. I really think, and that’s just one of the beautiful things about humans is that they are this kind of passionate creature that just lets things go and we’re kind of all in a big giant dance, but it’s also a great flaw of ours that we let things go until they’re too far and then they harm us.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “I’m going to throw a few quickies at you, but feel free to take as long as you want on ‘em. In 2018, you ran for governors as a libertarian. And one of your quotes was, ‘As a governor, I would declare aging a disease and put funding into stopping aging.’ What’s your beef with getting older besides the fact it sorta sucks?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Yeah, I mean I still do that. And that’s been a huge campaign promise. And in fact, a lot of the funding that we have had has come from people in that field. We would love to create a kind of a California governmental body, sort of like they did with stem cells, multi-billion dollar body that would be focused on curing aging. We think aging is perhaps the most traumatic thing next to AI coming that’s happening right now to the human race. And who wants to die? It’s not even who wants to age, because nobody wants to get 70 or 80 years old. If we could keep everyone in their thirties or forties or fifties or at least give them that choice, that would be wonderful. It’d be probably helpful for a lot of creativity in the economy and things like that as well. But again, you have to understand my personal, what I guess I’m known for is transhumanism.

“Number one, I believe that aging is something that should be reversed if possible, or at least have the choice to do that. And we’re close, just so your audience knows, it’s not crazy thinking anymore. There are, I think … there’s two drugs coming out this year through the FDA, and there are four or five others in the pipeline. Some of them are genetic therapies that have proof of actually making you live 20 to 30% longer, at least according to the studies going, so we’re going to come to a day where we’re going to take something and you’re not going to age. And I absolutely support that. And I wish, actually, more money from the federal government would come into that. And if I was in the governor, I would absolutely put state money into that. I think healthcare is one of the most important things we can do. And stopping aging is the core of healthcare.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “You’re saying you would get … so at 80 you would still be 50. At 90, you would be 60. Would you still age, but at just a slower rate, or would you just stop aging? You’re 30 eternally until you get hit by a bus?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Well, being hit by a bus or crashing an airplane, those are still ways to die. But if you can reverse aging … some animals, jellyfish AND whatnot, different types of sharks that have slowed down or stopped the aging process to some extent, you would be able to stay a young person for an indefinite amount of time. And of course, the longer you live, the better science gets. So you’re going to be able to do that for perhaps as long as you wish. I think a lot of us, if I’m 52 and I wake up and I’m like, oh, I would love to go back to, let’s say, 41 or 38, I’m at my peak. And if I could stay there, I’m not saying I don’t want to ever not die. Maybe people for religious reasons, for whatever, will choose one day to say, ‘Okay, today I start aging and I go through that process, that’s fine.’

“But I think the specter of death haunting us, the specter of aging always haunting us, has been also one of the great biological flaws of the human being. If we can change that and we believe we can, we think that the human body is sort of like a car, it can be worked on. If we can change that, we ought to. And there are many, many billionaires and now there are hundreds of companies dedicated specifically to this— many in Silicon Valley, which is ground zero for longevity on trying to stop aging in itself as the core goal that many, some humans, at least transhumans have on planet earth. Now, certainly it’s one of my most important goals.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “I think everyone has thought about, ‘Oh, if I could take a pill and live forever, would I take it or not take it?’ We’re about the same age, and after a while doesn’t the sunset get kind of boring? Isn’t there something to be said for being 85-years old, being like, I’m kind of sick of this shit, I’m ready to go …”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Yeah, absolutely. There is something to be said. So in fact, I did part of my thesis at Oxford, my graduate thesis was on this. Listen, I think one thing that’s important to understand is as you and I are having this conversation, we see ourselves as biological beings, and now I’m getting a little more philosophical, a little bit away from the governor’s run, but let me just say that’s not going to be the case in 10 years. I was already talking to you that you and I could probably within a year or two have our digital avatars do this on screen. But there’s a very real possibility within 10, 15 years because of Elon Musk, Neuralink and all these other companies, we’ll have uploaded our brains or chips inside our head and things like this. We’ll basically have synthetic parts in us, and as we evolve with technology, life is going to get more interesting, especially in our terms of our consciousness.

“When we start uploading our brains and have access to AI literally in real time, things are going to get really bizarre and probably very new. So what I’m trying to say is that if as long as you’re upgrading yourself to technology, life will always be continually and newly interesting. If we were just going to remain human bodies like we are now with the three pounds of meat on your head, yeah, you’re right. Life would get boring. I might not want to live more than a few hundred years, but that’s not what’s going to be the case. We’re going to be evolving. We’re going to be probably, hopefully evolving into SI, evolving into cyborgs, into machines. Maybe one day we’ll just be a conscience that roams the cosmos, something like pure ones and zeros. That sounds a little weird, but the point is that’s the nature of the trajectory of technology.

“So life will always probably keep getting interesting. So you want to stick around a million years just to see what you end up as in terms of if you believe in this kind of transhuman ideology that I support. But I realize there are plenty of people that don’t want that. And of course I think somebody who has some kind of libertarian minded thoughts, I think everyone should have that choice. But I don’t want you to think that life’s going to be boring in 50,000 years. It’ll probably so weird and exciting that you won’t even know what to do with it because of the technology that’s constantly evolving around us.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “Let me throw a final question at you. I have a great life. I get to write books for a living and I have a great wife and a great family, but I would say every day I wake up, read the news and think, ‘Ugh,’ and I just feel like punching a wall and I feel like democracy is on the decline and AI and all this stuff. Is there any reason for optimism or are we just all kind of fucked?”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Well, look, I think one thing to be optimistic about is that if we can get humanoid robots to serve us, and that should probably be here in the next two to three to four years, our life is going to get at least a lot easier. Could be like the robot cooks salmon for you and you have an enjoyable dinner and then it cleans up the dishes. You don’t even do a thing. It could be it walks your dog. Maybe more people would have kids because now something is raising those kids at least partially, and you don’t have to do all the diapers all day long. I have two daughters, so I’ve gone through the entire process. But the point is, I think life could become much more leisurely and happy as a result of AI and automation moving forward.

“Of course, super intelligence is a whole different angle. If that happens, that becomes dark and scary. But if we could just keep AI to actually be useful for us, lives could become a lot easier. Now, if we can’t don’t have to work because robots do things, then we’re really going to have this age of freedom. What would you do with your time? Well, I’d start reading books again. I don’t have time to read books. Maybe I’d go do my third or fourth PhD. Maybe I’d be in the Bahamas learning to play the guitar. But I think the age of automation does give us reason to be optimistic. The question though is ‘Can we create an environment where we have enough funding and enough income based on those multi-trillion dollar companies? Will they pay us enough money? Is there enough money out there? Can we make abundance for everyone?’

“I think if we can distribute the resources of this abundance properly, everybody could have a much better life than we have now. I mean, imagine if you woke up and you didn’t have the stress of all the things you have, but you have somebody serving you breakfast in bed, a machine. It could really be very optimistic, but it’s going to take a lot to get there. And humans have a way of trying to hoard money and not trying to share it nicely and distribute resources properly or fairly. So that’s going to be the biggest trick of the whole matter.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “The interesting potential irony is I changed many, many diapers in my day. And while it’s certainly not fun changing diapers, you also form a human bond with your child by pulling the diaper, cleaning, talking to the kid. ‘All right, I’m going to clean the poop,’ making their lunches in the morning before they go to school. It was a major pain in the ass. But at the same time, I’m talking to them—‘What do you want? If you want me to cut your sandwich today, what should I do?’ I do feel like there’s almost like a reckoning of losing a sense of humanity in doing these menial tasks that maybe we don’t enjoy, but maybe add something to our lives even though we don’t realize it at the time.”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Yeah, no, you are a hundred percent right. And I would never forego not changing diapers completely, but I would guess that if I could forego 50% of that, I would probably do so. And at the same thing is there has been plenty of times when maybe I had to sacrifice one child for my other child because for example, I couldn’t do diapers with her because I had to make lunch for someone. So these are the kinds of things where I think our lives will become, we’ll be able to distribute our energy and resources and kind of human touch more. And there are just days that you just have a fever, you just feel like crap, you don’t want to do it. This is what I’m saying when I talk about a life that’s more leisurely, it could just become better all around by having our own personal maid or butler serving us and helping out.

“I just think what people underestimate, and what I got campaigning around California right now, is everybody’s so stressed to the max just to even have a child, have a life and get them in school and daycare and childcare. It’s like if you can get to a point where that is reduced by 25% and just becomes easier because something takes care of that, that’s probably going to make you 25% happier. And I don’t know if we’re going to lose out on too much of the value. I agree with you. I would never want to have not change diapers, but probably 50% I could have let go.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: “That’s fair. That’s fair. Well, listen, good luck with your campaign. This has been incredibly enlightening and I really appreciate you doing this. Seriously. Thank you so much.”

ZOLTAN ISTVAN: “Well, thank you so much for having me. I know it’s been a little bit of a strange conversation, but I think the world is changing and it has become strange, and we better start talking about some of these issues openly because you can talk about taxes and immigration all day long. But I think, looking forward here in the next five, 10 years, a lot of the conversation is going to go to AI and survivability in terms of what do you do if you can’t work. So I’m glad that you’re covering this, so thank you so much for that.”

Politics Chat, February 17, 2026

February 16, 2026

American Conversations: Kate Barr

Tuesday 17 February 1662/63

Up and to my office, and there we sat all the morning, and at noon my wife being gone to Chelsey with her brother and sister and Mrs. Lodum, to see the wassell at the school, where Mary Ashwell is, I took home Mr. Pett and he dined with me all alone, and much discourse we had upon the business of the office, and so after dinner broke up and with much ado, it raining hard, which it has not done a great while now, but only frost a great while, I got a coach and so to the Temple, where discoursed with Mr. W. Montagu about borrowing some money for my Lord, and so by water (where I have not been a good while through cold) to Westminster to Sir W. Wheeler’s, whom I found busy at his own house with the Commissioners of Sewers, but I spoke to him about my Lord’s business of borrowing money, and so to my Lord of Sandwich, to give him an account of all, whom I found at cards with Pickering; but he made an end soon: and so all alone, he and I, after I had given him an account, he told me he had a great secret to tell me, such as no flesh knew but himself, nor ought; which was this: that yesterday morning Eschar, Mr. Edward Montagu’s man, did come to him from his master with some of the Clerks of the Exchequer, for my Lord to sign to their books for the Embassy money; which my Lord very civilly desired not to do till he had spoke with his master himself. In the afternoon, my Lord and my Lady Wright being at cards in his chamber, in comes Mr. Montagu; and desiring to speak with my Lord at the window in his chamber, he begun to charge my Lord with the greatest ingratitude in the world: that he that had received his earldom, garter, 4000l. per annum, and whatever he is in the world, from him, should now study him all the dishonour that he could; and so fell to tell my Lord, that if he should speak all that he knew of him, he could do so and so. In a word, he did rip up all that could be said that was unworthy, and in the basest terms they could be spoken in. To which my Lord answered with great temper, justifying himself, but endeavouring to lessen his heat, which was a strange temper in him, knowing that he did owe all he hath in the world to my Lord, and that he is now all that he is by his means and favour. But my Lord did forbear to increase the quarrel, knowing that it would be to no good purpose for the world to see a difference in the family; but did allay him so as that he fell to weeping. And after much talk (among other things Mr. Montagu telling him that there was a fellow in the town, naming me, that had done ill offices, and that if he knew it to be so, he would have him cudgelled) my Lord did promise him that, if upon account he saw that there was not many tradesmen unpaid, he would sign the books; but if there was, he could not bear with taking too great a debt upon him. So this day he sent him an account, and a letter assuring him there was not above 200l. unpaid; and so my Lord did sign to the Exchequer books. Upon the whole, I understand fully what a rogue he is, and how my Lord do think and will think of him for the future; telling me that thus he has served his father my Lord Manchester, and his whole family, and now himself: and which is worst, that he hath abused, and in speeches every day do abuse, my Lord Chancellor, whose favour he hath lost; and hath no friend but Sir H. Bennet, and that (I knowing the rise of the friendship) only from the likeness of their pleasures, and acquaintance, and concernments, they have in the same matters of lust and baseness; for which, God forgive them! But he do flatter himself, from promises of Sir H. Bennet, that he shall have a pension of 2000l. per annum, and be made an Earl. My Lord told me he expected a challenge from him, but told me there was no great fear of him, for there was no man lies under such an imputation as he do in the business of Mr. Cholmely, who, though a simple sorry fellow, do brave him and struts before him with the Queen, to the sport and observation of the whole Court.

He did keep my Lord at the window, thus reviling and braving him above an hour, my Lady Wright being by; but my Lord tells me she could not hear every word, but did well know what their discourse was; she could hear enough to know that. So that he commands me to keep it as the greatest secret in the world, and bids me beware of speaking words against Mr. Montagu, for fear I should suffer by his passion thereby.

After he had told me this I took coach and home, where I found my wife come home and in bed with her sister in law in the chamber with her, she not being able to stay to see the wassel, being so ill … [of her termes – L&M], which I was sorry for. Hither we sent for her sister’s viall, upon which she plays pretty well for a girl, but my expectation is much deceived in her, not only for that, but in her spirit, she being I perceive a very subtle witty jade, and one that will give her husband trouble enough as little as she is, whereas I took her heretofore for a very child and a simple fool. I played also, which I have not done this long time before upon any instrument, and at last broke up and I to my office a little while, being fearful of being too much taken with musique, for fear of returning to my old dotage thereon, and so neglect my business as I used to do.

Then home and to bed.

Coming home I brought Mr. Pickering as far as the Temple, who tells me the story is very true of a child being dropped at the ball at Court; and that the King had it in his closett a week after, and did dissect it; and making great sport of it, said that in his opinion it must have been a month and three hours old; and that, whatever others think, he hath the greatest loss (it being a boy, as he says), that hath lost a subject by the business.

He tells me, too, that the other story, of my Lady Castlemaine’s and Stuart’s marriage, is certain, and that it was in order to the King’s coming to Stuart, as is believed generally. He tells me that Sir H. Bennet is a Catholique, and how all the Court almost is changed to the worse since his coming in, they being afeard of him. And that the Queen-Mother’s Court is now the greatest of all; and that our own Queen hath little or no company come to her, which I know also to be very true, and am sorry to see it.

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Global leaders meet at Space-Comm Expo in London to accelerate future of European space industry

space-comm expo europe logo

Space-Comm Expo is one of Europe’s premier space industry events and the largest event in the UK, taking place in just 2 weeks’ time 4-5 March, ExCeL London. Over 5,400 […]

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Artemis haters, can we have a moment, please?

SLS/Orion 2026 Feb 2

It’s taking too long. It costs too much. Yet it’s not being talked about enough. It’s not historic enough. It’s not safe enough. I’m talking about Artemis. Or at least what a goodly portion of the space community is saying privately or online, replete with sensationalist interviews and even vomit emojis. Let’s take a breath, […]

The post Artemis haters, can we have a moment, please? appeared first on SpaceNews.

Sateliot to launch satellites with PLD Space

Sateliot will launch two of its next-generation direct-to-device satellites on a PLD Space rocket in what is billed as the first fully private Spanish mission.

The post Sateliot to launch satellites with PLD Space appeared first on SpaceNews.

Leonardo funding development of Earth observation constellation

Marco Brancati

Leonardo is funding development of an Earth observation constellation designed to highlight its capabilities while also being a model for larger European initiatives.

The post Leonardo funding development of Earth observation constellation appeared first on SpaceNews.

Side-Channel Attacks Against LLMs

Here are three papers describing different side-channel attacks against LLMs.

Remote Timing Attacks on Efficient Language Model Inference“:

Abstract: Scaling up language models has significantly increased their capabilities. But larger models are slower models, and so there is now an extensive body of work (e.g., speculative sampling or parallel decoding) that improves the (average case) efficiency of language model generation. But these techniques introduce data-dependent timing characteristics. We show it is possible to exploit these timing differences to mount a timing attack. By monitoring the (encrypted) network traffic between a victim user and a remote language model, we can learn information about the content of messages by noting when responses are faster or slower. With complete black-box access, on open source systems we show how it is possible to learn the topic of a user’s conversation (e.g., medical advice vs. coding assistance) with 90%+ precision, and on production systems like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude we can distinguish between specific messages or infer the user’s language. We further show that an active adversary can leverage a boosting attack to recover PII placed in messages (e.g., phone numbers or credit card numbers) for open source systems. We conclude with potential defenses and directions for future work.

When Speculation Spills Secrets: Side Channels via Speculative Decoding in LLMs“:

Abstract: Deployed large language models (LLMs) often rely on speculative decoding, a technique that generates and verifies multiple candidate tokens in parallel, to improve throughput and latency. In this work, we reveal a new side-channel whereby input-dependent patterns of correct and incorrect speculations can be inferred by monitoring per-iteration token counts or packet sizes. In evaluations using research prototypes and production-grade vLLM serving frameworks, we show that an adversary monitoring these patterns can fingerprint user queries (from a set of 50 prompts) with over 75% accuracy across four speculative-decoding schemes at temperature 0.3: REST (100%), LADE (91.6%), BiLD (95.2%), and EAGLE (77.6%). Even at temperature 1.0, accuracy remains far above the 2% random baseline—REST (99.6%), LADE (61.2%), BiLD (63.6%), and EAGLE (24%). We also show the capability of the attacker to leak confidential datastore contents used for prediction at rates exceeding 25 tokens/sec. To defend against these, we propose and evaluate a suite of mitigations, including packet padding and iteration-wise token aggregation.

Whisper Leak: a side-channel attack on Large Language Models“:

Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in sensitive domains including healthcare, legal services, and confidential communications, where privacy is paramount. This paper introduces Whisper Leak, a side-channel attack that infers user prompt topics from encrypted LLM traffic by analyzing packet size and timing patterns in streaming responses. Despite TLS encryption protecting content, these metadata patterns leak sufficient information to enable topic classification. We demonstrate the attack across 28 popular LLMs from major providers, achieving near-perfect classification (often >98% AUPRC) and high precision even at extreme class imbalance (10,000:1 noise-to-target ratio). For many models, we achieve 100% precision in identifying sensitive topics like “money laundering” while recovering 5-20% of target conversations. This industry-wide vulnerability poses significant risks for users under network surveillance by ISPs, governments, or local adversaries. We evaluate three mitigation strategies – random padding, token batching, and packet injection – finding that while each reduces attack effectiveness, none provides complete protection. Through responsible disclosure, we have collaborated with providers to implement initial countermeasures. Our findings underscore the need for LLM providers to address metadata leakage as AI systems handle increasingly sensitive information.

China’s Space Epoch raises new funding, targets 2026 launch and recovery attempt

A tall, cylindrical rocket is captured in the final moments of a vertical descent, hovering just above the surface of calm coastal waters during sunrise. Bright orange engine flames and thick plumes of white smoke billow outward as the rocket slows its descent for a soft splashdown. The scene is framed by a hazy sky, with distant land barely visible on the horizon. The water below reflects the rocket's light, and the atmosphere appears serene despite the powerful landing burn.

Chinese launch startup Space Epoch has secured B-round funding as the company moves towards a first orbital launch and recovery attempt late this year.

The post China’s Space Epoch raises new funding, targets 2026 launch and recovery attempt appeared first on SpaceNews.

SatVu to expand thermal imaging constellation with NATO-backed funds

Earth observation startup SatVu said Feb. 17 it has raised $41 million in a funding round that included the NATO Innovation Fund, as commercial space-based thermal imagery gains traction with defense and intelligence agencies.

The post SatVu to expand thermal imaging constellation with NATO-backed funds appeared first on SpaceNews.

David Cay Johnston Explains Why His Name Appears in Epstein Files — and Why Trump’s Redactions Matter

The Epstein Files Transparency Act and Trump’s Promises

Not every man whose name is in the Epstein files should be embarrassed or ashamed. I can say that because my work is cited by name and the context it has nothing to do with the horrific crimes of Epstein’s international network of child rapists and enablers.

My name appears four times in the half of the documents that have been released so far. Cited is my pioneering reporting on income inequality, an issue in I ‘ve analyzed and documented pioneered for three decades, and my critique of state lotteries as the most heavily taxed consumer product in America.

The Epstein files call me a tax expert, note my Pulitzer Prize for my tax journalism, and treat my work with respect so I’m perfectly happy with what’s there. 

This is similar to the so-called Tobacco Papers. Some journalists were or should have been, ashamed by what the nicotine addiction industry wrote about them in private. But the references to me, I’m fine with them.

To be clear, I never met Jeffrey Epstein, never spoke on the telephone with him, never emailed him or his associate Ghislaine Maxwell. Indeed, I never wrote about him until after he died under mysterious circumstances six years ago when he was in the custody of the Trump administrations federal jail in Manhattan.

DCReport readers should know what’s there because of our belief in transparency and my concerns that someone will try to take the fact that my name is in the files out of context.

As Americans we also should not be distracted from the real issue about the Epstein files. First and foremost, they reveal an international network super wealthy creeps in the habit of raping little girls who are not being pursued by our Justice Department because its now Trump’s personal law firm protecting him and his cronies and pursuing his perceived enemies.

Second, Donald Trump and his appointees are brazenly violating the Epstein Files Transparency Act, a federal law he signed requiring that the names of all but the victims be disclosed.

Trump promised if returned to the White House that all the Epstein files would be disclosed.

In blatant violation of the Epstein Files Transparency Act  many references to Donald Trump are redacted, according to several members of Congress who’ve been given highly restricted access to some of the unredacted files. 

Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Constitutional law professor, estimates that Trump’s name appears a million times. Even if it’s only one percent of that, Trump’s name appears so often the trove could properly be called the Trump Files.

The Trump Justice Department is withholding roughly half of the 6 million or so pages on spurious grounds that violate not just the letter and the spirit of the law, but Trump’s promises in his 2024 campaign.

The question we should all keep asking: ,Why would an innocent man fight so hard and break the law to hide the files in which his name appears? The answer to that should be obvious.

In debating this significant matter of public importance, we also should be careful to not make blanket statements, including the many I’ve seen in short videos and blog posts that assert that man named in the Epstein files needs to be prosecuted. Qualifiers matter. Subtlety matters. Nuance matters.

Many people are in the files because  Epstein made a record of being around seen with them to create an aura of invincibility. 

That makes perfect sense for Epstein, a con artist, an extortionist, and perhaps a foreign intelligence agent working with the Israelis. The first two are certain, the third needs thorough investigation.

We should all recognize that Epstein was amazingly successful in making sure in life that he was not properly held to account for his horrific crimes. His enablers should be investigated, but so long as Trump remains in the White House that won’t happen.

That Epstein remains protected in death is also astonishing. The man who could pull back the curtain insists he has done nothing wrong yet runs a cove-up. The implication is clear: Trump knows the full files will provide evidence, perhaps even irrefutable proof, that he is a child rapist.


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Links 2/17/26

Links for you. Science:

NIH funding cuts have affected over 74,000 people enrolled in experiments, a new report says
Residents held hostage in their homes by thousands of feral camels
UK butterfly numbers flat despite hottest summer on record
Plastic pollution may be supercharging algae blooms
Accurate plasmid reconstruction from metagenomics data using assembly–alignment graphs and contrastive learning
Why companies are phasing out these super-pollutants despite Trump

Other:

Six Ways to Reform ICE and CBP. And why congressional “reform” isn’t actually the real problem….
How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism. Moderation used to help Democrats win, but its advantages now have been greatly exaggerated
Candidates Do Not Engineer Mass Backlash With Carefully Chosen Rhetoric. Republicans are caught in a landslide, Democrats did not cause one. (excellent)
Republican bill targeting D.C. could make paying taxes this year very chaotic
Beware of ‘anti-woke’ liberals: they attacked the left and helped Trump win
Crypto Bros Nauseated After Realizing Bitcoin Itself Was Funded by Jeffrey Epstein
How Washingtonians Are Taking Care of Each Other During Trump II
The Moment
Common Ground Is for Suckers
Government attorney who told judge in ICE case, ‘This job sucks,’ removed from detail
Preserving the Open Web: Inside the New Wayback Machine Plugin for WordPress
Trump administration says it will limit funds for speed cameras
MAGA vs. MAGA: Who’s Winning the Right Wing Media Meltdown?
Dr. Peter Attia is all over the Epstein files, and CBS News wants to hire him
How Trump Is Debasing the Dollar and Eroding U.S. Economic Dominance
The shocking data in Democrats’ big win in that Texas special election
Longevity influencer Peter Attia steps down from protein bar brand after being named in the Epstein files
Theatre Washington’s Impact Report Shows a Vibrant But Imbalanced Theater Region. What Happens Next?
US contractor sent Gaza plan to White House that would secure 300% profits
Virginia’s New Governor Ends ICE Program. Local Contracts Remain, For Now.
How Jeff Bezos Brought Down the Washington Post
The Washington Post Is in Free Fall—and There’s One Person to Blame
To Build a Fire: How Russian military intelligence is recruiting young people online to carry out espionage, arson, and other attacks across Europe.
In Afghanistan, a Trail of Hunger and Death Behind U.S. Aid Cuts
A Billionaire’s Surrender: Bezos is not trying to save The Washington Post. He’s trying to survive Donald Trump.
The Minnesota Target Workers Who Walked Out Against ICE
Pursued by federal agents, suburban ICE observers remain resolved
The Washington Post Lays Off A Third Of Its Workforce, Is Dead
I Wrote a Book in Support of Nationalizing Elections. Trump Changed My Mind.
Former Whitney Chief Resigns From Art School After Epstein Email Release

How big is the prize of reopening Russia?

The Kremlin is promising $12trn-worth of deals to Donald Trump’s administration

The financialisation of AI is just beginning

Get ready for a new wave of securities, hedges and collateral

The fertility asymptote?

From a recent paper by Sebastian Galiani and Raul A. Sosa:

Fertility rates have fallen below replacement in most countries, fueling predictions of demographic collapse. We show these forecasts overlook a crucial fact: societies are not homogeneous. Using the Bisin–Verdier model of cultural transmission with endogenous fertility and direct socialization, calibrated to U.S. and global data, we find that high-fertility, high-retention groups persist, gain share, and lead the total population to grow. Even if fertility remains below replacement in every country, extinction is unlikely. Simulations imply continued growth with pronounced compositional change, driven especially by religious communities with high fertility. In our ten-generation world calibration, Muslims become the largest tradition.

I am pleased to hear that extinction is unlikely.

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Tuesday assorted links

1. The separating equilibrium.

2. Can speed revitalize American manufacturing?

3, Malmo real estate prices are doing fine.

4. AI and economics summer institute at University of Chicago.

5. Why total legal services costs may not fall with AI.  Correct working link here.

6. Sylvia Plath in her journals.

7. Stephen Kinsella Substack on the economy of Ireland.

p.s. hbsk!

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The Journal for AI Generated Papers

“In curiosity we trust.”

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Secretary of State Rubio Goes Full White Christian Nationalist

Which is to say, white Christian supremacist:

For the United States and Europe, we belong together. America was founded 250 years ago, but the roots began here on this continent long before. The man who settled and built the nation of my birth arrived on our shores carrying the memories and the traditions and the Christian faith of their ancestors as a sacred inheritance, an unbreakable link between the old world and the new.

We are part of one civilization – Western civilization. We are bound to one another by the deepest bonds that nations could share, forged by centuries of shared history, Christian faith, culture, heritage, language, ancestry, and the sacrifices our forefathers made together for the common civilization to which we have fallen heir.

Leaving aside the reality that many of the Founders viewed themselves as creating a new world, unencumbered by the mannerisms, traditions–and the monarchy–of the old world, this hits very differently when when one reads it, as I am, a couple of blocks away from the National Museum of American Jewish Military History.

Without getting into the debate over the phrase “this is not who we are as a nation”, this is definitely not who we should be or aspire to be as a nation.

Which one is man's best friend?

Is it true that “A dog is a man’s best friend”? I’m not a pet owner, so I’ve never given the issue much thought. I was certainly aware that dogs are often quite loyal to their owner but didn’t have a strong opinion as to why that was the case. Are they merely pretending to be a good friend, knowing that this would lead the owner to provide valuable food and shelter? Or is their friendship sincere?

According to The Economist, dogs are not faking it—they really are a man’s (or woman’s) best friend:

Dr Lord is now looking, with the assistance of some wolf-dog hybrids, for the genetic changes which underlie this ability. And other work has already identified one plausible candidate—a pair of neighbouring genes lost in the transition from wolf to dog which, if missing in humans, cause a disorder called Williams-Beuren syndrome. This results in characteristic anatomical changes and mild-to-moderate cognitive disability, but it also promotes extreme friendliness.

Besides being friendly, dogs have evolved as well to be good at reading human minds. Work by the Clever Dog Lab in Vienna suggests they can correctly ascribe motive and knowledge to humans in experiments involving the presence and location of food. They will approach crying strangers (or, at least, strangers pretending to cry for the purposes of the experiment), and their levels of cortisol, a stress hormone, rise when they hear a recording of a baby crying. Experiments which compare dogs’ reactions with those of miniature pigs kept as household pets suggest these sorts of responses are dog-specific, rather than a result of exposure to people making a non-human animal familiar with human ways.

I suppose that’s not definitive proof, but the fact that you have both genetic and chemical changes that correlate with good values is highly suggestive, as I don’t see how dogs could fake those sorts of physiological markers. So I’m going to assume that dogs really are a man’s best friend. After all, 4000 years of recorded history provides abundant evidence that even close (human) friends will betray us under the right circumstances.

I don’t know about you, but I find it impressive that primitive humans were able to turn a wild animal like a wolf into a highly loyal domesticated dog. And I find it especially impressive that domestic dogs are sincere friends, not cynical sociopaths (sociopets?) pretending to be our friends in order to get what they want from us. You probably know where I’m going with this—can we also domesticate an artificial super-intelligence? Here’s AI Overview:

Geoffrey Hinton, a "godfather of AI," proposes embedding a strong "maternal instinct" into advanced AI systems to prevent them from surpassing and endangering humanity. Drawing an analogy to how, evolutionarily, a mother protects her baby despite being more intelligent, this approach aims to align AI with human safety through, for example, care-based, logic-driven, decision-making.

I don’t know enough about AI to have strong views on this issue. Because wolves and humans are both mammals, it might have been easier to program friendliness into dogs than it would be to produce similar results in a future super-intelligence. Unlike humans and dogs, AIs don’t have things like “genes” and “cortisol”. On the other hand, the following caught my eye in a recent Ross Douthat interview of Dario Amodei:

The first thing we did — I think this was six months ago or so — is we gave the models basically an “I quit this job” button, where they can just press the “I quit this job” button and then they have to stop doing whatever the task is.

They very infrequently press that button. I think it’s usually around sorting through child sexualization material or discussing something with a lot of gore, blood and guts or something. And similar to humans, the models will just say, nah, I don’t want to do this. It happens very rarely.

We’re putting a lot of work into this field called interpretability, which is looking inside the brains of the models to try to understand what they’re thinking. And you find things that are evocative, where there are activations that light up in the models that we see as being associated with the concept of anxiety or something like that. When characters experience anxiety in the text, and then when the model itself is in a situation that a human might associate with anxiety, that same anxiety neuron shows up.

Now, does that mean the model is experiencing anxiety? That doesn’t prove that at all, but ——

Douthat: But it does indicate it, I think, to the user, right?

Amodei: Yes.

Fascinating.

Nonetheless, I see our best hope as coming not from “programming” ethics into an ASI, rather from the fact that there actually is such a thing as ethical knowledge, and for that reason an ASI would be expected to be highly ethical. Before explaining why I hold this view, I’d like to discuss a few anecdotes. I was living in Chicago when this event occurred (from Wikipedia):

Disco Demolition Night was a Major League Baseball (MLB) promotion on Thursday, July 12, 1979, at Comiskey Park in Chicago, Illinois, that ended in a riot.

At the climax of the event, a crate filled with disco records was blown up on the field between games of the twi-night doubleheader between the Chicago White Sox and the Detroit Tigers. Many had come to see the explosion rather than the games and rushed onto the field after the detonation. The playing field was so damaged by the explosion and by the rioters that the White Sox were required to forfeit the second game to the Tigers.

Disco Demolition Night preceded, and may have helped precipitate, the decline of disco in late 1979; some scholars and disco artists have debated whether the event was expressive of racism and homophobia. Disco Demolition Night remains well known as one of the most extreme promotions in MLB history.

(Back in 1979, I was in the disco sucks camp—hadn’t yet discovered Whit Stillman.)

A few months later I was riding in a Greyhound bus, bound for Madison, WI. The young man sitting next to me seemed relatively unintelligent. “Hold my beer” he said each time he went to the toilet at the back of the bus. He told me that he had participated in the riot and bragged that he had beat up some black guy in the crowd.

During my three years at the University of Chicago, I had not met many low IQ individuals, and one thing always stuck with me from this conversation. At first, he seemed to be suggesting that he was getting back at the black guy for some previous injury. But as the conversation progressed, I realized that he was saying that a different black person had hurt him in some way (I forget how), and he seemed to feel that he could get revenge by attacking any black person that he happened to encounter. I found that to be rather primitive ethical reasoning and was surprised that he implicitly assumed a random white guy sitting next to him would agree with his action. I guess I need to get out more.

I get a lot of push back for my claim that smarter people are more ethical, on average. I acknowledge that dumb people may be just as kind to their friends and family as are smart people. But there is one type of ethical knowledge that clearly seems positively correlated with “general” intelligence—sympathy for people who are very different from us. I’m fairly confident that (on average) smarter people are less likely to believe that an appropriate reaction to a personal attack is to go after a completely different person that happen to share the same skin color as the one who injured you.

One objection to this argument is that one can find plenty of exceptions, such as some of the top Nazi officials. I have two responses to that objection. First, when you are dealing with a sample size of 8 billion, even a strong correlation (say 0.80 or 0.90) would allow for many millions of exceptions. And second, there are multiple types of intelligence, including scientific knowledge, aesthetic knowledge and ethical knowledge. Consider some recent Trump comments, starting with the NY Times:

President Trump on Tuesday said the killing of Renee Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis was a “tragedy” about which he “felt terribly,” adding that the immigration agents he has deployed sometimes are “going to make a mistake.”

The change in tone was stark for the president, who said he had been told that Ms. Good’s father was a strong Trump supporter.

Just hours after she was killed on Jan. 7, Mr. Trump falsely claimed that Ms. Good “violently, willfully, and viciously ran over the ICE officer” and said that she had “behaved horribly.” He later said Ms. Good, a poet and a mother of three, had a “highly disrespectful” attitude toward law enforcement and suggested that it justified her killing. Trump administration officials, including Kristi Noem, the secretary of homeland security, were quick to accuse Ms. Good of being a “domestic terrorist.”

And here’s CNBC:

According to two European officials, Trump’s message to Gahr Støre read in part: “Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America.”

And here’s NPR:

"A very sad thing happened last night in Hollywood," Trump said in a post on Truth Social Monday morning. "Rob Reiner, a tortured and struggling, but once very talented movie director and comedy star, has passed away, together with his wife, Michele, reportedly due to the anger he caused others through his massive, unyielding, and incurable affliction with a mind crippling disease known as TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME, sometimes referred to as TDS."

Or this from the BBC:

“We sent him on the way, but I wasn’t a fan of John McCain,” the president said during a visit to an Ohio tank factory.

Mr Trump has repeatedly assailed the late Arizona senator in recent days, reigniting a feud that dates back to before his presidency.

The Vietnam War veteran died of brain cancer last August at the age of 81. . . .

During his visit on Wednesday to the tank factory in Lima, Ohio, the president renewed his assault on McCain.

“I gave him the kind of funeral that he wanted, which as president I had to approve,” he told workers at the factory.

“I don’t care about this, I didn’t get a thank you. That’s OK.”

This sort of thing has been going on for 10 years:

Even many Trump voters concede that he’s got some character flaws. On the other hand, Trump is clearly much smarter than the punk I sat next to on that Greyhound bus. So how should we think about Trump’s intelligence, and does it correlate with good ethics?

Given how successful Trump has been, it seems obvious to me that he would score well above 100 on an IQ test. He’s more intelligent than the average person in that sense. In some areas he may be far above average. He’s been able to use a combination of cunning and charisma to manipulate people in such a way as to achieve many difficult objectives in business, entertainment and politics. That requires superior intelligence in at least certain areas.

On the other hand, it’s equally true that he has some major blind spots. I won’t comment on his aesthetic intelligence, other than to note that he seems to think everything—even toilets—look better if covered with gold leaf. You can draw your own conclusions. He is known for almost never reading things, preferring to get his information from TV shows. As a result, his former advisors tell reporters that he is poorly informed on scientific questions.

Trump’s greatest weakness is a lack of ethical intelligence. Some would suggest that “Trump knows that many of his comments are seen as offensive, but he doesn’t care.” I’m afraid that’s missing the point. Yes, I can imagine that Trump might occasionally enjoy playing the villain, putting out clever trolls to “own the libs”. But almost no one, and certainly not Trump, enjoys being widely ridiculed.

The problem here is that Trump doesn’t just put out offensive tweets, he puts out tweets that are both offensive and extremely dumb. Most normal people cringe when they see Trump seeming to mock the death of well-liked people such as Rob Reiner and Senator McCain. Trump doesn’t seem to realize how bad it looks when he puts tariffs on countries like Canada and Switzerland merely because he’s annoyed by a minor personal slight:

In a Fox Business interview that aired Tuesday, Trump told Larry Kudlow he imposed the original tariff on Switzerland because of a $42 billion trade deficit with the country, but he raised it because its leader was rude to him.

“I got an emergency call from, I believe, the prime minister of Switzerland,” Trump said, “and she was very aggressive, but nice, but very aggressive. ‘Sir, we are a small country, we can’t do this, we can’t do this,’ I couldn’t get her off the phone….And I didn’t really like the way she talked to us, so instead of giving her a reduction, I raised it to 39 percent.”

Although Trump has a far higher IQ than that punk I sat next to on the Greyhound bus, both individuals share a penchant for indiscriminate revenge. Both have very low ethical intelligence. The punk thought all black people should suffer because of what a single black guy did to him, while Trump thinks all 9.2 million Swiss people deserve to suffer because of a “very aggressive, but nice” comment made by a Swiss leader.

To be clear, people can be both highly intelligent and cruel at the same time. During France’s ancien regime, arrogant aristocrats would occasionally use clever wit to ridicule people they viewed as their inferior. But that’s not what Trump is doing—he comes off as low class, the opposite of aristocratic. He’s not a Voltaire, a Winston Churchill, or an Oscar Wilde.

Even Trump will occasionally come up with a clever troll. But he produces so many cringeworthy remarks that it is impossible to believe he sees the world the way most people do. What sort of person wishes to go down in history as a subject of almost universal contempt among historians? There’s no 4-D chess here; Trump simply doesn’t realize what a fool he’s making of himself when he obstructs a bridge or tunnel project over a personal slight. It’s true that he “owns the libs” by annoying them, but it’s equally true that when he’s in a room full of successful people they are almost all (privately) laughing at him, and he doesn’t even know it. He would be appalled if he understood how poorly he is viewed, even by many of the people that are close to him.

Trust me, if Trump had more ethical intelligence he would not be behaving this way. If he were smart enough to have read and understood a few dozen of the great novelists (people like Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, Flaubert, Proust, Mann, Kafka, Nabokov, Woolf, Austin, Conrad, Faulkner, Melville, etc.) he would also be smart enough to know that he’s making a fool of himself. He’s not that smart.

And this leads me to the issue of AI. Unlike Trump, the leading AI programs are extremely well read. I suspect that you could show them a few dozen Trump outrages and they would immediately be able to recognize the ethical problem with his behavior. I assume there are political issues where I disagree with most AIs (say abolishing FDIC). Nonetheless, I’d much rather be ruled by a random AI than by Trump. I believe they have a greater ethical intelligence.

In a recent essay, Dario Amodei predicted that in the near future we’d have AIs that “write extremely good novels”. I don’t know if that’s true (I doubt it), but Amodei certainly knows more about this that I do.

The great majority of novels are not “very good”, they are lousy or mediocre. It’s very hard for me to imagine how an AI could write a very good novel unless it could also understand a very good novel. Indeed, I find it far easier to understand novels than to write them, especially very good novels. Although an infinite number of monkeys sitting at an infinite number of typewriters could eventually produce In Search of Lost Time (in French, English and Slovenian), it’s hard for me to imagine a real-world AI writing this sort of novel without having a pretty deep understanding of human psychology. Please correct me if I’m missing something.

And an AI intelligent enough to understand a serious novel should also be intelligent enough to know that it’s wrong to commit mass murder. You might say that I only believe that because I’m a person—human chauvinism. Not so, I also believe it would be wrong to kill all the whales, or all the elephants. It shouldn’t be hard for a ASI to understand that cruelty is wrong, even if directed against other entities. I understand that it would be wrong to be cruel to a conscious ASI. If they end up smarter than me, wouldn’t they have at least as deep an understanding of ethics?

Yes, it’s possible that machine intelligence is so radically different from human intelligence that none of my assumptions apply. But then what makes these experts believe that AIs will soon be able to write a very good novel? It seems more likely that AIs would have sincere sympathy for human beings, than it does that human beings would have sympathy for whales. After all, future ASIs will be trained on human culture, including our great novels, whereas humans are not trained on whale culture. And yet “save the whales” is now a widely shared belief among humans, especially intelligent humans.

[BTW, in this post “intelligent” means well-informed, not “innately intelligent.” By becoming better informed about things like whale communication, humans have become more intelligent. Modern Americans are not innately more intelligent than Americans that lived 200 years ago, but when it comes to sympathy for other races and other species we are vastly more intelligent. Indeed, I think you could make a good argument that ethical intelligence has risen just as fast as scientific intelligence, at least for the average person (not for scientists.)]

Almost every day I encounter things that suggest a connection between intelligence and ethics. Recently, I’ve noticed that people on the far left and the far right don’t just hold foolish views, they tend to be less ethical than people in the center. Yes, there are plenty of exceptions—sleazy centrists—but have you noticed how many intellectually dishonest arguments come from the far left and the far right? I frequently see reasonable people having their views mischaracterized by extremists on both the left and the right. Extremists often engage in dishonest attempts at character assassination—as when they claim their adversary is “in the Epstein files”, merely because they once got an email from Epstein, but never met him.

In my old blog, I’d often get comments accusing me of being a neoconservative Marxist pedophile. (I’m not.) Over time, I noticed that the most ethically dubious comments were highly correlated with the most stupid commenters. The two characteristics were by no means perfectly correlated, but far more closely correlated than if ethics were randomly distributed among various levels of intelligence.

I suspect that a future ASI will not have far left or far right views, rather it will be politically moderate, even if not explicitly programmed that way.

Richard Hanania has a post that expressed similar views on the link between dumb politics and bad morals:

Populism can be understood as a negation of virtue, in which certain elites stop caring what other elites think, and try to gain power through appealing to sheer numbers instead. Since the masses are generally worse than elites in terms of knowledge, honesty, and orientation toward truth, populists are more immoral movements.

To be clear, I do not believe that populists are wrong on all issues, indeed I suspect they are justified in having skepticism about ideas such as leftist wokism and neoconservative nation-building. Rather, I’m suggesting that when movements become centered around anti-intellectualism, it is only a matter of time before they end up in a very dark place.

You don’t like what the elites have done to us? As Janan Ganesh recently pointed out, you might wish to think a bit more about the alternative. His excellent FT essay on the decline of neoliberalism is entitled:

Liberals should mourn the passing world

Why apologise for what was the most successful international order in history?

Ganesh is a kindred spirit. (As is Richard Hanania.) BTW, my blog is subtitled:

Nostalgia for the neoliberal era

PS. To be clear, not all dogs are ethical:

Jobs for human "meatspace" workers, assigned by A.I.s

 Robots aren't yet able to replace people: e.g. self-driving taxis (such as Waymo) aren't equipped to close a door left open (or incompletely closed) by a departing passenger.  So artificial agents need a task rabbit to recruit able-bodied (or at least embodied) workers.  

Nature has the story: 

AI agents are hiring human 'meatspace workers' — including some scientists
Biologists, physicists and computer scientists have joined a platform called RentAHuman.ai to advertise their skills. By Jenna Ahart 

"The idea is simple, as the website’s homepage reads: “robots need your body”. Human users can create profiles to advertise their skills for tasks that an AI tool can’t accomplish on its own — go to meetings, conduct experiments, or play instruments, for example — along with how much they expect to be paid. People — or ‘meatspace workers’ as the site calls them — can then apply to jobs posted by AI agents or wait to be contacted by one. The website shows that more than 450,000 people have offered their services on the site." 

Two new Showboat tools: Chartroom and datasette-showboat

I introduced Showboat a week ago - my CLI tool that helps coding agents create Markdown documents that demonstrate the code that they have created. I've been finding new ways to use it on a daily basis, and I've just released two new tools to help get the best out of the Showboat pattern. Chartroom is a CLI charting tool that works well with Showboat, and datasette-showboat lets Showboat's new remote publishing feature incrementally push documents to a Datasette instance.

Showboat remote publishing

I normally use Showboat in Claude Code for web (see note from this morning). I've used it in several different projects in the past few days, each of them with a prompt that looks something like this:

Use "uvx showboat --help" to perform a very thorough investigation of what happens if you use the Python sqlite-chronicle and sqlite-history-json libraries against the same SQLite database table

Here's the resulting document.

Just telling Claude Code to run uvx showboat --help is enough for it to learn how to use the tool - the help text is designed to work as a sort of ad-hoc Skill document.

The one catch with this approach is that I can't see the new Showboat document until it's finished. I have to wait for Claude to commit the document plus embedded screenshots and push that to a branch in my GitHub repo - then I can view it through the GitHub interface.

For a while I've been thinking it would be neat to have a remote web server of my own which Claude instances can submit updates to while they are working. Then this morning I realized Showboat might be the ideal mechanism to set that up...

Showboat v0.6.0 adds a new "remote" feature. It's almost invisible to users of the tool itself, instead being configured by an environment variable.

Set a variable like this:

export SHOWBOAT_REMOTE_URL=https://www.example.com/submit?token=xyz

And every time you run a showboat init or showboat note or showboat exec or showboat image command the resulting document fragments will be POSTed to that API endpoint, in addition to the Showboat Markdown file itself being updated.

There are full details in the Showboat README - it's a very simple API format, using regular POST form variables or a multipart form upload for the image attached to showboat image.

datasette-showboat

It's simple enough to build a webapp to receive these updates from Showboat, but I needed one that I could easily deploy and would work well with the rest of my personal ecosystem.

So I had Claude Code write me a Datasette plugin that could act as a Showboat remote endpoint. I actually had this building at the same time as the Showboat remote feature, a neat example of running parallel agents.

datasette-showboat is a Datasette plugin that adds a /-/showboat endpoint to Datasette for viewing documents and a /-/showboat/receive endpoint for receiving updates from Showboat.

Here's a very quick way to try it out:

uvx --with datasette-showboat --prerelease=allow \
  datasette showboat.db --create \
  -s plugins.datasette-showboat.database showboat \
  -s plugins.datasette-showboat.token secret123 \
  --root --secret cookie-secret-123

Click on the sign in as root link that shows up in the console, then navigate to http://127.0.0.1:8001/-/showboat to see the interface.

Now set your environment variable to point to this instance:

export SHOWBOAT_REMOTE_URL="http://127.0.0.1:8001/-/showboat/receive?token=secret123"

And run Showboat like this:

uvx showboat init demo.md "Showboat Feature Demo"

Refresh that page and you should see this:

Title: Showboat. Remote viewer for Showboat documents. Showboat Feature Demo 2026-02-17 00:06 · 6 chunks, UUID. To send showboat output to this server, set the SHOWBOAT_REMOTE_URL environment variable: export SHOWBOAT_REMOTE_URL="http://127.0.0.1:8001/-/showboat/receive?token=your-token"

Click through to the document, then start Claude Code or Codex or your agent of choice and prompt:

Run 'uvx showboat --help' and then use showboat to add to the existing demo.md document with notes and exec and image to demonstrate the tool - fetch a placekitten for the image demo.

The init command assigns a UUID and title and sends those up to Datasette.

Animated demo - in the foreground a terminal window runs Claude Code, which executes various Showboat commands. In the background a Firefox window where the Showboat Feature Demo adds notes then some bash commands, then a placekitten image.

The best part of this is that it works in Claude Code for web. Run the plugin on a server somewhere (an exercise left up to the reader - I use Fly.io to host mine) and set that SHOWBOAT_REMOTE_URL environment variable in your Claude environment, then any time you tell it to use Showboat the document it creates will be transmitted to your server and viewable in real time.

I built Rodney, a CLI browser automation tool, specifically to work with Showboat. It makes it easy to have a Showboat document load up web pages, interact with them via clicks or injected JavaScript and captures screenshots to embed in the Showboat document and show the effects.

This is wildly useful for hacking on web interfaces using Claude Code for web, especially when coupled with the new remote publishing feature. I only got this stuff working this morning and I've already had several sessions where Claude Code has published screenshots of its work in progress, which I've then been able to provide feedback on directly in the Claude session while it's still working.

Chartroom

A few days ago I had another idea for a way to extend the Showboat ecosystem: what if Showboat documents could easily include charts?

I sometimes fire up Claude Code for data analysis tasks, often telling it to download a SQLite database and then run queries against it to figure out interesting things from the data.

With a simple CLI tool that produced PNG images I could have Claude use Showboat to build a document with embedded charts to help illustrate its findings.

Chartroom is exactly that. It's effectively a thin wrapper around the excellent matplotlib Python library, designed to be used by coding agents to create charts that can be embedded in Showboat documents.

Here's how to render a simple bar chart:

echo 'name,value
Alice,42
Bob,28
Charlie,35
Diana,51
Eve,19' | uvx chartroom bar --csv \
  --title 'Sales by Person' --ylabel 'Sales'

A chart of those numbers, with a title and y-axis label

It can also do line charts, bar charts, scatter charts, and histograms - as seen in this demo document that was built using Showboat.

Chartroom can also generate alt text. If you add -f alt to the above it will output the alt text for the chart instead of the image:

echo 'name,value
Alice,42
Bob,28
Charlie,35
Diana,51
Eve,19' | uvx chartroom bar --csv \
  --title 'Sales by Person' --ylabel 'Sales' -f alt

Outputs:

Sales by Person. Bar chart of value by name — Alice: 42, Bob: 28, Charlie: 35, Diana: 51, Eve: 19

Or you can use -f html or -f markdown to get the image tag with alt text directly:

![Sales by Person. Bar chart of value by name — Alice: 42, Bob: 28, Charlie: 35, Diana: 51, Eve: 19](/Users/simon/chart-7.png)

I added support for Markdown images with alt text to Showboat in v0.5.0, to complement this feature of Chartroom.

Finally, Chartroom has support for different matplotlib styles. I had Claude build a Showboat document to demonstrate these all in one place - you can see that at demo/styles.md.

How I built Chartroom

I started the Chartroom repository with my click-app cookiecutter template, then told a fresh Claude Code for web session:

We are building a Python CLI tool which uses matplotlib to generate a PNG image containing a chart. It will have multiple sub commands for different chart types, controlled by command line options. Everything you need to know to use it will be available in the single "chartroom --help" output.

It will accept data from files or standard input as CSV or TSV or JSON, similar to how sqlite-utils accepts data - clone simonw/sqlite-utils to /tmp for reference there. Clone matplotlib/matplotlib for reference as well

It will also accept data from --sql path/to/sqlite.db "select ..." which runs in read-only mode

Start by asking clarifying questions - do not use the ask user tool though it is broken - and generate a spec for me to approve

Once approved proceed using red/green TDD running tests with "uv run pytest"

Also while building maintain a demo/README.md document using the "uvx showboat --help" tool - each time you get a new chart type working commit the tests, implementation, root level README update and a new version of that demo/README.md document with an inline image demo of the new chart type (which should be a UUID image filename managed by the showboat image command and should be stored in the demo/ folder

Make sure "uv build" runs cleanly without complaining about extra directories but also ensure dist/ and uv.lock are in gitignore

This got most of the work done. You can see the rest in the PRs that followed.

The burgeoning Showboat ecosystem

The Showboat family of tools now consists of Showboat itself, Rodney for browser automation, Chartroom for charting and datasette-showboat for streaming remote Showboat documents to Datasette.

I'm enjoying how these tools can operate together based on a very loose set of conventions. If a tool can output a path to an image Showboat can include that image in a document. Any tool that can output text can be used with Showboat.

I'll almost certainly be building more tools that fit this pattern. They're very quick to knock out!

The environment variable mechanism for Showboat's remote streaming is a fun hack too - so far I'm just using it to stream documents somewhere else, but it's effectively a webhook extension mechanism that could likely be used for all sorts of things I haven't thought of yet.

Tags: charting, projects, ai, datasette, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, coding-agents, claude-code, showboat

Rodney and Claude Code for Desktop

I'm a very heavy user of Claude Code on the web, Anthropic's excellent but poorly named cloud version of Claude Code where everything runs in a container environment managed by them, greatly reducing the risk of anything bad happening to a computer I care about.

I don't use the web interface at all (hence my dislike of the name) - I access it exclusively through their native iPhone and Mac desktop apps.

Something I particularly appreciate about the desktop app is that it lets you see images that Claude is "viewing" via its Read /path/to/image tool. Here's what that looks like:

Screenshot of a Claude Code session in Claude Desktop. Claude says: The debug page looks good - all items listed with titles and descriptions. Now let me check the nav
menu -  Analyzed menu image file - Bash uvx rodney open "http://localhost:8765/" 2>&1 && uvx rodney click "details.nav-menu summary" 2>&1 &% sleep 0.5 && uvx rodney screenshot /tmp/menu.png 2>&1 Output reads: Datasette: test, Clicked, /tmp/menu.png - then it says Read /tmp/menu.png and reveals a screenshot of the Datasette interface with the nav menu open, showing only "Debug" and "Log out" options. Claude continues: The menu now has just "Debug" and “Log out" — much cleaner. Both pages look good. Let me clean up the server and run the remaining tests.

This means you can get a visual preview of what it's working on while it's working, without waiting for it to push code to GitHub for you to try out yourself later on.

The prompt I used to trigger the above screenshot was:

Run "uvx rodney --help" and then use Rodney to manually test the new pages and menu - look at screenshots from it and check you think they look OK

I designed Rodney to have --help output that provides everything a coding agent needs to know in order to use the tool.

The Claude iPhone app doesn't display opened images yet, so I requested it as a feature just now in a thread on Twitter.

Tags: anthropic, claude, ai, claude-code, llms, async-coding-agents, coding-agents, generative-ai, projects, ai-assisted-programming, rodney

The $85 Million Factory Brewing The World's Best Coffee

Okay. We’re kicking off our multi-part tour of New England with a visit to Cometeer. Per usual, Core Memory subscribers get their hands on everything way ahead of the plebs.

Cometeer flash freezes som…

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Science should be machine-readable

One of the leading tasks of our time:

We develop a machine-automated approach for extracting results from papers, which we assess via a comprehensive review of the entire eLife corpus. Our method facilitates a direct comparison of machine and peer review, and sheds light on key challenges that must be overcome in order to facilitate AI-assisted science. In particular, the results point the way towards a machine-readable framework for disseminating scientific information. We therefore argue that publication systems should optimize separately for the dissemination of data and results versus the conveying of novel ideas, and the former should be machine-readable.

Here is the paper by A. Sina Booeshagh, Laura Luebbert, and Lior Pachter.  Via John Tierney.

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Turning Our Back on Clean Energy

A graph showing the average temperature of the earth

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: Berkeley Earth

It has been a brutal winter in much of the United States. Weather is a chaotic system in which extreme events are always happening somewhere. But as I am sure you have noticed, extreme weather events — catastrophic storms and flooding, punishing droughts, and yes, extreme cold snaps — are becoming more common as a result of climate change.

For climate change is not just continuing: it’s accelerating. Multiple estimates find that 2025 was one of the warmest years on record for the planet, exceeded only by 2024 and 2023. Indeed, Berkeley Earth reports that “The warming spike observed in 2023 to 2025 has been extreme and suggests an acceleration in the rate of Earth’s warming.”

In other news, the Trump administration has gone to war against any and all efforts to limit climate change. The administration is also imposing a “blockade” against wind and solar projects, delaying or even revoking permits, whether or not these projects have received federal subsidies.

Now, there isn’t a genuine scientific dispute about the reality of global warming and its causes. There isn’t even a serious dispute about the costs of fighting climate change: the economics of green energy are more favorable than they have ever been.

So what’s going on? The Trump administration hates science and science-based policies in general; look at its war on vaccines, which will end up causing an enormous number of deaths. Its assault on universities threatens the best scientific research centers in the world. Its irrational treatment of immigrants means the best and brightest from the around the world no longer want to come here. But in the case of energy, its destructive policy largely reflects the corrupting influence of big money.

I’ll explain in a minute. First, some background.

Almost 40 years have passed since James Hansen’s landmark Senate testimony warning about global warming. He was right. Climate science has been overwhelmingly vindicated by reality.

However, the economics and politics of climate policy have played out very differently from what almost anyone expected.

As late as the 2010s, many observers — myself included — would have said that the big problem in addressing climate change was who would bear the cost. Policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, everyone believed, would slow the growth of the economy and of real incomes. True, anti-environmentalists were grossly exaggerating these costs. In 2009 I wrote that

[T]he best available economic analyses suggest that even deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would impose only modest costs on the average family.

But what we knew at the time nonetheless said that there would be significant costs to slowing global warming. And this was problematic, because the costs of limiting emissions would be incurred right away, while the benefits of reduced warming would accrue decades later — and many of them would go to other countries. So action on climate appeared to require (a) international cooperation (b) persuading voters to accept costs now in exchange for a better world many years in the future.

And it was all too easy to be pessimistic about the prospects both for cooperation and for persuading voters to accept even modest future-oriented sacrifices.

Then came the renewable energy revolution. Solar and wind power have become cost-competitive with fossil fuels — they are, in particular, clearly cheaper than coal. Huge progress in batteries has rapidly reduced the problem of intermittency (the sun doesn’t always shine, the wind doesn’t always blow.) There’s now a clear path for a transition to an “electrotech” economy in which renewable-generated electricity heats our homes, powers our cars, and much more.

This transition would make us richer, not poorer. In fact, nations that for whatever reason fail to take advantage of electrotech will be left behind in global competition.

And at this precise moment — a moment in which acting to accelerate the energy transition would increase, not reduce, economic growth — the U.S. government has been taken over by people who want us to go backward on energy. The Trump administration has even introduced a mascot, “Coalie,” in an attempt to make an extremely dirty fuel cute. But coal isn’t cute. Even if we ignore the role of coal in climate change, coal-burning power plants caused hundreds of thousands of excess U.S. deaths between 1999 and 2020.

Why the government is trying to make coal cute | Grist

What explains this extraordinary rejection of progress and embrace of energy know-nothingism?

Money may not be the whole story, but it’s a lot of the story.

Indeed, much of what is happening to American democracy has its origins in the long-term strategy of the billionaire Koch brothers. The Kochs spent decades promoting right-wing politics in general, with a special role in the takeover of the Supreme Court by the Federalist Society. But an important part of their agenda, and hence that of the right-wing movement as a whole, has always been to keep America burning the fossil fuels on which their wealth rested. If you want to know more, read Lisa Graves’ book on the Roberts Supreme Court, “Without precedent”.

At this point, moreover, it’s not just about normal channels of political influence, nor it just about domestic billionaires. We now live in a time in which U.S. policy is shaped by sheer, naked corruption (enabled in part by the Koch takeover of the courts). Notably, Middle Eastern petrostates, which have a strong interest in blocking the energy transition, have played a huge role in enriching the Trump family.

It’s somewhat surprising that other big-money interests haven’t pushed back. After all, crippling the development of renewable energy is bad for business, and especially bad for the electricity-hungry crypto and AI industries, which ordinarily have a great deal of sway with the Trump administration. But maybe they have decided that special treatment, and especially a green light for their own unethical behavior, matters more than affordable energy.

If there’s any good news here, it is that from a global point of view this malignancy may not matter very much. America is not the world. In fact, at this point we’re responsible for only a small fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions:

A graph of gas emissions

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

So America’s hard turn against renewables and climate action won’t be decisive for the climate future as long as other countries continue to move ahead on green energy, which they are. For the most part, all MAGA will do is help make the United States backward, poorer, sicker and irrelevant.

MUSICAL CODA

Nano Banana Pro diff to webcomic

Given the threat of cognitive debt brought on by AI-accelerated software development leading to more projects and less deep understanding of how they work and what they actually do, it's interesting to consider artifacts that might be able to help.

Nathan Baschez on Twitter:

my current favorite trick for reducing "cognitive debt" (h/t @simonw ) is to ask the LLM to write two versions of the plan:

  1. The version for it (highly technical and detailed)
  2. The version for me (an entertaining essay designed to build my intuition)

Works great

This inspired me to try something new. I generated the diff between v0.5.0 and v0.6.0 of my Showboat project - which introduced the remote publishing feature - and dumped that into Nano Banana Pro with the prompt:

Create a webcomic that explains the new feature as clearly and entertainingly as possible

Here's what it produced:

A six-panel comic strip illustrating a tool called "Showboat" for live-streaming document building. Panel 1, titled "THE OLD WAY: Building docs was a lonely voyage. You finished it all before anyone saw it.", shows a sad bearded man on a wooden boat labeled "THE LOCALHOST" holding papers and saying "Almost done... then I have to export and email the HTML...". Panel 2, titled "THE UPGRADE: Just set the environment variable!", shows the same man excitedly plugging in a device with a speech bubble reading "ENV VAR: SHOWBOAT_REMOTE_URL" and the sound effect "*KA-CHUNK!*". Panel 3, titled "init establishes the uplink and generates a unique UUID beacon.", shows the man typing at a keyboard with a terminal reading "$ showboat init 'Live Demo'", a satellite dish transmitting to a floating label "UUID: 550e84...", and a monitor reading "WAITING FOR STREAM...". Panel 4, titled "Every note and exec is instantly beamed to the remote viewer!", shows the man coding with sound effects "*HAMMER!*", "ZAP!", "ZAP!", "BANG!" as red laser beams shoot from a satellite dish to a remote screen displaying "NOTE: Step 1..." and "SUCCESS". Panel 5, titled "Even image files are teleported in real-time!", shows a satellite dish firing a cyan beam with the sound effect "*FOOMP!*" toward a monitor displaying a bar chart. Panel 6, titled "You just build. The audience gets the show live.", shows the man happily working at his boat while a crowd of cheering people watches a projected screen reading "SHOWBOAT LIVE STREAM: Live Demo", with a label "UUID: 550e84..." and one person in the foreground eating popcorn.

Good enough to publish with the release notes? I don't think so. I'm sharing it here purely to demonstrate the idea. Creating assets like this as a personal tool for thinking about novel ways to explain a feature feels worth exploring further.

Tags: nano-banana, gemini, llms, cognitive-debt, generative-ai, ai, text-to-image, showboat, ai-assisted-programming

Qwen3.5: Towards Native Multimodal Agents

Qwen3.5: Towards Native Multimodal Agents

Alibaba's Qwen just released the first two models in the Qwen 3.5 series - one open weights, one proprietary. Both are multi-modal for vision input.

The open weight one is a Mixture of Experts model called Qwen3.5-397B-A17B. Interesting to see Qwen call out serving efficiency as a benefit of that architecture:

Built on an innovative hybrid architecture that fuses linear attention (via Gated Delta Networks) with a sparse mixture-of-experts, the model attains remarkable inference efficiency: although it comprises 397 billion total parameters, just 17 billion are activated per forward pass, optimizing both speed and cost without sacrificing capability.

It's 807GB on Hugging Face, and Unsloth have a collection of smaller GGUFs ranging in size from 94.2GB 1-bit to 462GB Q8_K_XL.

I got this pelican from the OpenRouter hosted model (transcript):

Pelican is quite good although the neck lacks an outline for some reason. Bicycle is very basic with an incomplete frame

The proprietary hosted model is called Qwen3.5 Plus 2026-02-15, and is a little confusing. Qwen researcher Junyang Lin says:

Qwen3-Plus is a hosted API version of 397B. As the model natively supports 256K tokens, Qwen3.5-Plus supports 1M token context length. Additionally it supports search and code interpreter, which you can use on Qwen Chat with Auto mode.

Here's its pelican, which is similar in quality to the open weights model:

Similar quality pelican. The bicycle is taller and has a better frame shape. They are visually quite similar.

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, vision-llms, qwen, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llm-release, openrouter, ai-in-china

In Which Josh Proposes Revising the Federal Holiday Calendar

When I was a little boy in the Southern California school system in the 70s and 80s, there were separate holidays for Washington’s and Lincoln’s birthdays. Or at least this was my recollection. Both were celebrated. Then Martin Luther King Day became a federal holiday in 1986. I thought at time and for many years after that Presidents Day was created out of a consolidation of Washington’s and Lincoln’s birthdays in order to make room for Martin Luther King Day, on the reasoning that there’s a limit on the number of federal holidays. A number of years ago I looked into this and it turned out that this wasn’t true. I can’t remember the exact details. Lincoln’s birthday was never a federal holiday but it was celebrated in California. There was also a shift beginning around the same time to rebrand Washington’s birthday as Presidents Day. (Officially, it’s still Washington’s Birthday.)

In any case, my interest in this is that Abraham Lincoln should really have a national holiday. Some of this is a matter of him just really being a great president quite apart from the revolution brought about by the Civil War and the Reconstruction amendments. Sometimes great iconic figures aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. But the twin presidencies of Washington and Lincoln are if anything more powerful and important on close examination than they seem, though Washington’s role isn’t limited to his presidency. You have to see it in the context of his military and de facto political leadership during the Revolutionary War and his role in the period between the Revolution and his presidency, including his role at the constitutional convention. In any case, point being Washington and Lincoln are both critical figures in our national history. The holiday problem is that we have a logjam of birthdays, with King’s in January and both Washington’s and Lincoln’s falling in February. I guess there’s some reason why we can’t have that many national holidays right after each other. Fine. I don’t make the rules.

But remember every problem is an opportunity. Everyone has their more or less favored holidays. But regardless of your preference there’s one genuinely stupid national holiday: Columbus Day. Our current conversations about this day are focused on changing perceptions of Christopher Columbus and his role in ushering in the calamitous human consequences of the Columbian Exchange, the collapse of native populations, de facto enslavements of native populations and the formal enslavement of Africans kidnapped from Africa and made into a permanent, inter-generational enslaved population in the Americas. But it’s stupid in another way. Columbus was a little known figure through most of American history. The creation of the Columbus holiday was mostly a matter of giving the rising Italian-American population of late 19th century America a symbol of inclusion in the unfolding national story and combat rising anti-Italian and anti-Catholic sentiment at the end of the 19th century. Like Jews and Poles and other groups pouring into the U.S. in the late 19th century, Italians were looking for ways to read themselves into the national story. Columbus was a Genoese sailing on behalf of the Crown’s of Castile and Aragon. But close enough. Here was an Italian right at the very beginning of the national story.

If we were to abolish Columbus Day, I recognize this would be some slight to Italian-Americans and perhaps native populations who are invested in the rebranded “Indigenous People’s Day.” I say this simply to note that I’m neither indifferent to this or unaware of it. But we can accomplish two things by abolishing Columbus Day and replacing it with some version of Lincoln’s Birthday. (Also, forget “Presidents Day.” Let’s go back to celebrating it as Washington’s Birthday, which officially it still is.) The truth is that a lot of presidents were just okay and a lot of them kinda sucked. We shouldn’t class them all together with genuinely great leaders like Washington and Lincoln. We can deal with moving the celebration of Lincoln until later in the year because there are various dates tied to the Emancipation Proclamation which come later in the year. These dates get moved around pretty casually and tying Lincoln’s celebration to the Emancipation Proclamation has the added benefit of tying his celebration to the constitutional revolution that Lincoln made possible and began but did not live to see.

This last part is more than a minor one. We’ve discussed over the years the various ways in which the Reconstruction amendments are still treated as not quite up to par with the original Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Indeed, there’s a rising call on the right to actually claim they don’t exist, that they weren’t properly enacted, thus doing officially what the right has unofficially been doing for a long time: trying to read the Reconstruction Amendments out of the Constitution.

As Justice Thurgood Marshall argued in a speech during the centennial celebrations of the constitution in 1987, the Reconstruction amendments created a fundamentally new constitutional order. These weren’t technical revisions like many subsequent amendments, changing the precise age of voting eligibility or term limits for presidents. To him, the pre-Reconstruction constitution was fundamentally “defective,” indeed “defective from the start” and had or has no claim on our allegiance. That latter point is a more complicated one to me. But he was certainly right that the post-Civil War constitution is different in kind. In many ways we’ve been trying to wrestle back the implications of these amendments from the start. Indeed, the upcoming birthright citizenship case is one of the most brazen and shocking attempts to do so yet. These are genuinely liberationist amendments which set the whole constitutional order in a radically new direction.

In any case, those are my thoughts on this Washington’s Birthday. Martin Luther King Day in January; Washington’s Birthday in February; Lincoln/Freedom Day some time in the summer or the fall and then simply get rid of Columbus Day which was never actually about Columbus in the first place.

How is RXJ0528+2838 creating such shock waves? How is RXJ0528+2838 creating such shock waves?


Rebuilding our world, with reference to strong AI

When 2012 passed into 2013, we did not have to rebuild our world, not in most countries at least.  It sufficed to make adjustments at the margin.

After the Roman Empire fell, parts of Europe had to rebuild their worlds.  It took a long time, but they ended up doing pretty well.

After the American Revolution, the newly independent colonies had to rebuild their own world.  They did so brutally, but with considerable success.

After WWII, Western Europe had the chance to rebuild its own world, and did a great job.

We moderns are not used to having to rebuild our world.

It is now the case that strong AI is here/coming, and we will have to rebuild our own world.  Many of us are terrified at this prospect, others are just extremely pessimistic.  It seems so impossible.  How are all the new pieces supposed to fit together?  Who amongst us can explain that process in a reassuring way?

Yet we have done it many times before.  Not always with success, however.  After WWI ended, Europe was supposed to rebuild its own world, but they came up with something far worse than what they had before.  Nonetheless, in the broader sweep of history world rebuilding projects have had positive expected value.

And so we will rebuilding our world yet again.  Or maybe you think we are simply incapable of that.

As this happens, it can be useful to distinguish “criticisms of AI” from “people who cannot imagine that world rebuilding will go well.”  A lot of what parades as the former is actually the latter.

In any case, it all will be quite something to witness.

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[Sponsor] Hands-On Workshop: Fix It Faster — Crash Reporting, Tracing, and Logs for iOS in Sentry

Learn how to connect the dots between slowdowns, crashes, and the user experience in your iOS app. This on-demand session covers how to:

  • Set up Sentry to surface high-priority mobile issues without alert fatigue.
  • Use Logs and Breadcrumbs to reconstruct what happened with a crash.
  • Find what’s behind a performance bottleneck using Tracing.
  • Monitor and reduce the size of your iOS app using Size Analysis.

Watch it here.

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Home Reef Adds On

Three panels show the small volcanic island of Home Reef on different dates in December 2025 and January 2026. In each image from left to right, the island appears slightly larger, and plumes of volcanic gases and greenish, discolored water are more pronounced.
December 3, 2025 – January 28, 2026

Home Reef, a mid-ocean volcano in the Tonga archipelago, continues to build onto its modest land area. Volcanic activity ramped up in December 2025, marking the latest in a series of periodic eruptions that began in 2022. The eruption was ongoing as of mid-February 2026.

Satellites are critical to monitoring volcanoes such as Home Reef in remote and difficult-to-access locations. These images, from December 3, 2025 (left), December 27, 2025 (center), and January 28, 2026 (right), captured some of the volcano’s growth during its recent spate of activity. They were acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 and 9.

Thermal data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) indicate that this eruptive phase began on December 17, 2025, after about five months of quiet, said Simon Plank. Plank, a researcher at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), has been studying Home Reef’s eruption dynamics and cycles of growth and erosion since it awoke in 2022 and emerged above sea level.

Beginning in December 2025, lava flows first extended the island’s footprint to the east and south, then to the northwest, and later to the north. Based on synthetic aperture radar data from DLR’s TerraSAR-X satellite, the island had grown by nearly 8 hectares (20 acres)—about the size of 15 American football fields—by early February, Plank said.

Plumes of volcanic gases billowed from a 100-meter-diameter vent throughout the eruptive period. Pilots in the area observed plumes increasing in height during the last week of January, Tonga Geological Services reported, and the agency raised the aviation color code to orange due to the possible presence of suspended ash.

The discolored water around the island is a sign of gases and magmatic fluids venting from the volcano. Previous research has shown that such plumes of superheated, acidic water can contain particulate matter, volcanic rock fragments, and sulfur, and that they can appear before signs of an eruption above the surface. Concentrations of yellow sulfur mixing with the blue ocean may account for the water’s greenish appearance.

Home Reef is part of the Tonga Volcanic Arc, a line of submarine and island volcanoes along the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zone. One of its neighbors, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, produced one of the most powerful volcanic eruptions in recent history—large enough to send a volcanic plume into the mesosphere. The current activity at Home Reef is much tamer; officials say it poses low risk to inhabited islands nearby.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

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SpaceX’s 1st stage/booster reuse, by the numbers (wonkish)

Curious minds want to know. If we look at the time it takes SpaceX to reuse a first-stage/booster, the days between one launch and a relaunch, and the number of times that booster is reused, what do we see? Surely some SpaceX employee has looked at this, too. Though I’m reminded of a time decades … Continue reading SpaceX’s 1st stage/booster reuse, by the numbers (wonkish)

February 15, 2026

The Trump administration’s white nationalist project was on full display this weekend at the 62nd Munich Security Conference that took place from February 13 to 15, 2026. The Munich Security Conference is the leading international forum for discussions of security policy. It was begun in 1963, at the height of the Cold War, to be an independent venue for experts and policymakers to discuss the most pressing security issues around the globe.

While the USSR absorbed neighboring countries as satellites, the U.S. and its allies and partners embraced a theory that international relations could achieve permanent peace so long as they emphasized representative democracy, economic interdependence, and international organizations. The equality, shared norms, and costs for wars that this system built, the theory went, along with new mechanisms for negotiation, would prevent global military conflict like those the world had suffered twice in the early twentieth century.

Since World War II, those values have reinforced civil rights and created opportunities for women and people of color, created dramatically higher standards of living around the globe, and prevented global wars. But the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 changed global calculations. Rather than defending the tenets of democracy, American leaders focused on spreading capitalism into the newly accessible states, arguing that democracy and capitalism went hand in hand.

At home, the end of the Cold War meant that the extremist Republicans who hoped to destroy business regulations and slash taxes, as well as halt infrastructure projects and end civil rights protections, no longer had to work with Democrats to stand against the USSR. They focused on getting rid of those they called the American “left,” a term that for them included not just Democrats but also Independents and traditional Republicans in the mold of President George H.W. Bush, who believed the government had a role to play in regulating business, providing a basic social safety net, promoting infrastructure, and protecting civil rights.

Extremist Republicans attacked their opponents as socialists even as their tax cuts and deregulation were moving money dramatically upward: at least $50 trillion moved upward from the bottom 90% to the top 1% between 1975 and 2020. Republican leaders and media figures fed their audiences the story that the middle class was imploding not because of Republican policies but because undeserving Black people, people of color, and feminist women demanded government handouts. This narrative fueled Trump’s political rise. He promised to fix the economic dispossession of those the modern economy left behind, by “draining the swamp,” restoring white men to control, and rebuilding the American middle class.

Once in office, though, Trump continued Republican policies of tax cuts and deregulation, maintaining his hold over his supporters by increasing attacks on racial and gender minorities and on women. As he distanced himself from democratic principles, he cozied up to Arab monarchs and Russia’s president Vladimir Putin. Like right-wing media leaders, he championed Hungarian prime minister Victor Orbán, who had destroyed democracy in Hungary in favor of establishing autocracy.

At the Munich Security Conference last year, just after Trump had taken office for the second time, Vice President J.D. Vance announced the U.S. was switching sides in global affairs. Henceforth, it would work to destroy the values of representative democracy and the global systems of trade and security that the U.S. and partners constructed after World War II.

In their place, officials in the Trump administration and their media allies have embraced the Great Replacement theory that says Brown and Black migration to Europe and the U.S. is destroying “western civilization.” Such migration must be stopped, they argue, and Brown and Black people purged from the U.S. and Europe. The end of equal rights for migrants will enable white Christian men to dominate society and pass laws that reinforce traditional religious and patriarchal hierarchies.

A report the organizers of the Munich Security Conference released before this year’s event named the elephant in the room: “the changing role of the United States in the international system.”

The report looked back to the statement of U.S. secretary of state Dean Acheson, who oversaw the development of the post–World War II global order, that he was “present at the creation.” Now, the report said, we may be present at its destruction. “The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics. Sweeping destruction—rather than careful reforms and policy corrections—is the order of the day. The most prominent of those who promise to free their countries from the existing order’s constraints and rebuild stronger, more prosperous nations is the current US administration. As a result, more than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now under destruction.”

Trump is leading that destruction, the report says, but it’s not clear that he is clearing the ground for new policies that will secure Americans’ safety, prosperity, or freedom. It warns that Trump is building a world based on private transactions that privilege a global elite and replace international cooperation with a few powerful countries. “Ironically,” it says, “this would be a world that privileges the rich and powerful, not those who have placed their hopes in wrecking-ball politics.”

When he opened this year’s conference, German chancellor Friedrich Merz warned the Trump administration that “[t]he leadership claim of the U.S. is being challenged, perhaps already lost,” and that the world of great-power rivalry the U.S. is trying to set up will leave the U.S. alone and weakened. “We Germans know a world in which might makes right would be a dark place,” he said. “Our country has gone down this path in the 20th century until the bitter and dreadful end.”

“The culture war of the MAGA movement is not ours,” Merz said. “Freedom of speech ends here with us when that speech is turned against human dignity and the constitution. And we don’t believe in tariffs and protectionism, but in free trade. We stand by climate agreements and the World Health Organization.”

In his speech to the conference yesterday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was less confrontational than Vance was last year, but the message was the same. He attacked all three of the pillars on which the U.S. has previously stood in foreign affairs. Global trade has ruined the U.S. economy, he said, while international institutions have undermined sovereignty, and “a climate cult” has imposed energy policies that are “impoverishing our people.”

He focused, though, on “mass migration,” which he claimed “threatens the cohesion of our societies, the continuity of our culture, and the future of our people.” He called for Europe to join with the U.S. in rejecting the tenets of the post–World War II vision, claiming that “[w]e are part of one civilization—Western civilization. We are bound to one another by the deepest bonds that nations could share, forged by centuries of shared history, Christian faith, culture, heritage, language, ancestry, and the sacrifices our forefathers made together for the common civilization to which we have fallen heir.”

His description of that shared heritage reflected the Trump administration’s fantasy past. It was all white and Christian, quite weirdly erasing the Indigenous Americans who were central to the development of a peculiarly “American” identity in the eastern colonies of North America and the reality that the vast majority of the American West was Indigenous, Spanish, and Mexican for hundreds of years before it became part of the United States in 1848.

Rubio’s version of the U.S. did not include Black Americans at all, even though they were among the first inhabitants of the colonies that became the U.S., and even though he called out the Rolling Stones, who built their body of work on that of Black American blues musicians like Muddy Waters and Howlin’ Wolf, as part of “western civilization.” Rubio even ignored his own family’s arrival in the U.S. from Cuba in 1956, rooting his own heritage not in the modern migration from Latin America to the U.S. that the administration is criminalizing, but in eighteenth-century Spain.

Entirely ignoring the threat of autocratic Russia against Europe, Rubio pushed Europe to abandon the values of democracy in favor of imperialism. He said the U.S. had “no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West’s managed decline” and urged Europe to work with the U.S. for a return to western “dominance.”

From Munich, Rubio will travel to Hungary to visit with Orbán, who is facing an election on April 12, following a stop in Slovakia, whose leader is also a Trump ally.

Rubio’s version of history echoes that of the Nazis during World War II and ignores the strength of the real multicultural history of the United States. European leaders wanted no part of it.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas rejected the ideology behind Rubio’s speech. “Contrary to what some may say, woke, decadent Europe is not facing civilizational erasure,” she said. She noted that other nations want to join the E.U. and those that are already members want the E.U. “to take a stronger role in the world: To defend our values. To take care of our people. To push humanity forwards.”

Kallas disputed the argument that the postwar order is economically backward compared to autocracy, noting that since the fall of the Soviet Union, nations that have joined the E.U. have grown economically more than twice as fast as Russia. She reiterated the value of international trade and security partnerships, and she reminded the audience that “the vast majority of countries also want the same thing: stability, growth, and prosperity for their people. The best way to get there is to go together.”

As Merz had done, Kallas called for Europeans to assert their own agency to protect “not only our excellent living standards, health and happiness, but the lessons we have learnt from our own history.”

Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton said in Munich that Trump “has betrayed the West, he’s betrayed human values, he’s betrayed the NATO charter, the Atlantic Charter, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,” and warned he is modeling himself after Putin.

The Trump administration’s attempt to replace the postwar international order with a great-power system driven by autocracy has opened the door for Democrats to suggest a different kind of U.S. foreign policy. A number of elected Democrats traveled to Munich, where they tried to counter administration officials’ message. California governor Gavin Newsom touted his state’s climate policies and signed a memorandum of understanding with Deputy Governor Oleksandr Kulepin of Lviv, Ukraine, to strengthen trade and commercial ties with Lviv Oblast, California’s sister-state.

Representatives Jason Crow (D-CO) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) cut more closely to the heart of the crisis that led to Trump’s rise by calling for a U.S. foreign policy rooted in the working class. “We can’t fall into right-wing populism’s lie that the most vulnerable in society are to blame for wealth inequality in our countries,” Ocasio-Cortez later summarized her argument. “We need to build movements that tell the truth: the story of wealth inequality is not a cultural one, but a class one.” At Munich, she said: “We want to make sure that we dive deeply into shared innovation, investment, strategic priorities, and trade policies that ensure the benefits of that trade actually benefit working-class people and that we restrain ourselves from the military interventions of our past.”

“Our foreign policy is being turned into an extortion ring for Big Oil, for the Trump family, for elites,” Crow said. ‘They’re bullying our partners and allies.… We want strength and peace, but we don’t want to be extorting and bullying our friends. We want to be a force for good.” “We need a national security and foreign policy that looks like America and has the experiences of the American people [with] partnerships that are rooted in fairness and that deliver for working-class folks everywhere.”

Notes:

https://time.com/5888024/50-trillion-income-inequality-america/

https://securityconference.org/assets/02_Dokumente/01_Publikationen/2026/MSR2026/Under_Destruction%E2%80%93Munich_Security_Report_2026.pdf, pp. 6, 9, 18.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/14/jd-vance-stuns-munich-conference-with-blistering-attack-on-europes-leaders

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/02/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-at-the-munich-security-conference

https://www.dw.com/en/marco-rubio-visits-trump-allies-in-eastern-europe/a-75980359

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/keynote-speech-hrvp-kaja-kallas-msc-europeans-assemble-reclaiming-agency-rougher-world_en

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/germanys-merz-calls-on-u-s-and-europe-to-repair-and-revive-trans-atlantic-trust-together

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-firedrich-merz-blasts-lost-us-leadership-as-international-order-no-longer-exists/

https://crow.house.gov/media/press-releases/crow-ocasio-cortez-advance-alternate-foreign-policy-vision-for-working-people-at-munich-security-conference

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/13/us-not-powerful-enough-to-go-it-alone-merz-tells-munich-conference

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/02/14/munich-security-conference-governor-newsom-reinforces-climate-partnerships-as-donald-trump-abandons-long-standing-american-allies/

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/hes-betrayed-the-west-hillary-clinton-scolds-panelist-after-he-mocked-her-anti-trump-rant-at-european-forum/

https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/gavin-newsom-munich-security-conference-anti-trump-arguments-europe/

Bluesky:

ocasio-cortez.house.gov/post/3mewdsuc7ds2l

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One-Day Oxford Symposium Explores Digital and Analog Maps

Maps: Digital | Analogue is a one-day symposium from the Sunderland Collection, held in conjunction with the Bodleian Libraries, taking place on 26 February 2026. “Discover the secrets that digitisation can reveal about historical maps… More

A Zero Declination World Map

The Bad Map Projection series of xkcd cartoons are mischievous and brain-melting but often as not come with a kernel of truth. Last Friday’s is a case of geomagnetorectification, distorting the map to line up… More

NASA to attempt second full fueling test of its Space Launch System rocket

NASA’s Space Launch System rocket is seen at Launch Complex 39B in the midst of pre-launch testing for the Artemis 2 mission. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

NASA will try again to fully load its Space Launch System rocket with more than 700,000 gallons of liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen this week at the conclusion of a full launch countdown rehearsal.

The operation, called a wet dress rehearsal or a WDR, will begin with a call to stations inside Firing Room 1 at the Launch Control Center at 6:40 p.m. EST (2340 UTC) on Tuesday, Feb. 17. It will culminate in the actual fueling of the rocket on Thursday, Feb. 19, aiming towards a simulated T-0 at 8:30 p.m. EST (0130 UTC).

This second, full-length fueling demonstration comes the week after NASA conducted what it called a confidence test on Thursday, Feb. 12. During that operation, teams loaded an unspecified amount of liquid hydrogen (LH2) onto the rocket’s core stage “to assess newly replaced seals in an area used to fill the rocket with propellant.”

However, there was a new ground equipment issue that cropped up, which “reduced the flow of liquid hydrogen into the rocket,” according to a blog post shared Friday night. NASA said it managed to get enough data from “key objectives of the test” and was able to get good data from the core stage interface — called the Tail Service Mast Umbilical (TSMU) — during the same periods where leaks cropped up during the first WDR on Feb. 3.

“The confidence test related to the seals we repaired and replaced after WDR-1 provided a great deal of data, and we observed materially lower leak rates compared to prior observations during WDR-1,” said NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman in a social media post on Saturday. “I would not say something broke that caused the premature end to the test, as much as we observed enough and reached a point where waiting out additional troubleshooting was unnecessary.’

During the first WDR that concluded on Feb. 3, NASA encountered hydrogen leaks as they moved from a slow fill rate of LH2 to fast fill on the core stage, which required the loading to pause at various times. Hydrogen is highly combustible and so NASA has restrictions around how concentrated it can be once it’s airborne.

Teams exceeded the 16 percent LH2 limit during the process of pressurizing the tanks amid the terminal count on WDR-1 and the clock stopped at T-5 minutes and 15 seconds.

Charlie Blackwell-Thompson, NASA’s Artemis Launch Director, discusses the preliminary results of the first wet dress rehearsal on Feb. 3, 2026. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

“We wanted to get inside of terminal count, we wanted to hold and we wanted to verify our three-minute hold capability, which is that you’ve got all of your cryo prop systems in a launch-ready state and you can hold them there for up to three minutes and we wanted to demonstrate the capability,” said Charlie Blackwell-Thompson, the Artemis launch director, during a post-WDR-1 press conference.

“We wanted to demonstrate a recycle, which is when you go down and you have a planned cutoff in the countdown, come back, and re-target a new T-0 and be able demonstrate that within the launch window,” she added. “Didn’t get a chance to do that. And then we would come down, do the handoff to ALS (automated launch sequencer), and then cutoff shortly thereafter. So I would say those are probably the three things that we had intended to do [on Feb. 3] that we did not get an opportunity to do.”

Those objectives are back on the table for WDR-2. Launch controllers intend to take the count down to T-1 minute and 30 seconds, hold for up to three minutes, proceed through the terminal count down to T-33 seconds and then pause again. They would then recycle the clock back to T-10 minutes and make another run through the terminal count.

Before running into issues inside the terminal count during WDR-1, Blackwell-Thompson waived off the possibility of conducing a second terminal count attempt due to the issues seen earlier during the fueling campaign.

Like with WDR-1, WDR-2 will also see the closeout crew perform a demonstration of their launch day activities, even though the crew won’t be present. At one point, NASA wasn’t going to have the closeout crew in the loop for WDR-2, but subsequently changed their minds on that.

NASA leaders have said repeatedly that a more formalized launch date won’t be established until after a successful wet dress rehearsal campaign. March 6 remains the earliest possible launch date within the March window.

“There is still a great deal of work ahead to prepare for this historic mission,” Isaacman wrote on social media. “We will not launch unless we are ready and the safety of our astronauts will remain the highest priority.”

Monday 16 February 1662/63

Up and by coach with Sir W. Batten and Sir J. Minnes to White Hall, and, after we had done our usual business with the Duke, to my Lord Sandwich and by his desire to Sir W. Wheeler, who was brought down in a sedan chair from his chamber, being lame of the gout, to borrow 1000l. of him for my Lord’s occasions, but he gave me a very kind denial that he could not, but if any body else would, he would be bond with my Lord for it. So to Westminster Hall, and there find great expectation what the Parliament will do, when they come two days hence to sit again, in matters of religion. The great question is, whether the Presbyters will be contented to have the Papists have the same liberty of conscience with them, or no, or rather be denied it themselves: and the Papists, I hear, are very busy designing how to make the Presbyters consent to take their liberty, and to let them have the same with them, which some are apt to think they will.

It seems a priest was taken in his vests officiating somewhere in Holborn the other day, and was committed by Secretary Morris, according to law; and they say the Bishop of London did give him thanks for it.

Thence to my Lord Crew’s and dined there, there being much company, and the above-said matter is now the present publique discourse.

Thence about several businesses to Mr. Phillips my attorney, to stop all proceedings at law, and so to the Temple, where at the Solicitor General’s I found Mr. Cholmely and Creed reading to him the agreement for him to put into form about the contract for the Mole at Tangier, which is done at 13s. the Cubical yard, though upon my conscience not one of the Committee, besides the parties concerned, do understand what they do therein, whether they give too much or too little.

Thence with Mr. Creed to see Mr. Moore, who continues sick still, within doors, and here I staid a good while after him talking of all the things either business or no that came into my mind, and so home and to see Sir W. Pen, and sat and played at cards with him, his daughter, and Mrs. Rooth, and so to my office a while, and then home and to bed.

Read the annotations

Links 2/16/26

Links for you. Science:

6 weird groundhog facts for Groundhog Day
Baby Asian Elephant Born at DC’s National Zoo
HIV denialist Peter Duesberg is dead. Good.
N.I.H. Worker Who Criticized Trump Seeks Whistle-Blower Protection
Phage-microbe interactions may contribute to the population structure and dynamics of hydrothermal vent symbionts
CDC data show decline in hospital-related infections in 2024

Other:

What is a reactionary centrist, and does the UK have them? A term favoured by US progressives can help us understand Britain’s drift to the right
REPUBLICAN VOTERS HAVE LIVED IN AN AI-SLOP FANTASYLAND SINCE BEFORE THERE WAS AI
ICE Is Watching You
The Goal Must Be Removal. Putting all eggs in the basket of winning elections is a dangerous decision, when Trump’s plan is to cheat in those elections.
Self-Pitying CBS Star Peter Attia Tries to Explain Away Epstein Shame
DOJ Released Unredacted Nude Images in Epstein Files
George Mitchell’s name removed from US-Ireland scholarship after Epstein files release
Where are ICE and Border Patrol agents coming from?
U.S. citizen injured by federal agents in Salem who demanded to see “papers,” union says
Former Windows 8 boss recruited Epstein to help negotiate his messy Microsoft exit
Agents were pursuing an immigrant when they killed Alex Pretti. Now, he shares his story.
How the Supreme Court Secretly Made Itself Even More Secretive
A Legal Tool for Holding ICE Agents to Account, Hiding in Plain Sight. A proposal in a 1987 law review article could address a gap that makes it all but impossible to sue federal officials for violating the Constitution.
Behind the Bleachers: The business of sports looks a lot like the rest of our unequal, excessively financialized economy.
Homeland Security is targeting Americans with this secretive legal weapon
ICE Employees Vent on Reddit, Saying They’re Not Getting Paid and Still No Insurance Despite Promises
To Avoid a Tax Hike, Billionaires Decide to Take Over California
Video shows clash between ICE agents and bystanders in Minneapolis (AP)
OVERTHINKING THE ETHNICITY OF ALEX PRETTI’S KILLERS
The most important question in all of history
The Fight Is Upon Us: What The Right to Vote Looks Like on Trump’s Terrain of Violence
The Real Reason ICE Agents Wear Masks
Police Raid Elon Musk’s X Paris Office in Criminal Probe
Here’s how Epstein broke the internet. His meeting with the founder of 4chan and his quest to profit off the end of democracy
Lake Oswego theater loses rights to screen ‘Melania’ after marquee jokes
The Trump manufacturing bust
‘Backing down isn’t an option’: Minnesota ICE shootings mobilize Americans to join ICE observer groups
Donald Trump Has Built a Clicktatorship
After Republicans push Clintons to testify on Epstein, Democrats warn they’ll haul in Trump. Democrats say Republicans have set a new precedent with subpoenas of an ex-president and first lady. “We will follow it … Donald Trump, all of his kids. Everybody,” Rep. Maxwell Frost said.
Man breaks into Little Caesars, starts making and selling pizzas, NC police say

NASA work on several programs pending responses to White House executive order

ISaacman

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said he expects to provide details about several agency priorities, including lunar exploration and commercial space stations, in the coming weeks.

The post NASA work on several programs pending responses to White House executive order appeared first on SpaceNews.

The space nuclear power bottleneck — and how to fix it

Fission surface power

No technology holds more transformative potential for America’s space aspirations than nuclear power. Radioisotopes can safely produce heat that will enable deep space exploration and survival of the frigid lunar night while fission reactors are capable of producing kilowatts of electricity on the moon or in orbit. Fission is also the key to advanced nuclear […]

The post The space nuclear power bottleneck — and how to fix it appeared first on SpaceNews.

Low-profile Chinese launch firm conducts first stage static fire

A rocket first stage stands vertically on a red offshore launch platform labeled ‘HOS-1’ as its engines fire, sending a bright flame and heavy smoke plume across the surrounding sea.

One of China’s lower profile launch startups, Zenk Space, has conducted a first stage static fire for its Zhihang-1 rocket ahead of a planned launch.

The post Low-profile Chinese launch firm conducts first stage static fire appeared first on SpaceNews.

Portions of the Pentagon’s LEO constellation on hold as acquisition reviews proceed

Changes anticipated for ‘custody’ and ‘transport’ layers

The post Portions of the Pentagon’s LEO constellation on hold as acquisition reviews proceed appeared first on SpaceNews.

Isaacman planning to meet with head of Roscosmos

Isaacman

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said he is interested in meeting with his Russian counterpart and attending an upcoming Soyuz launch.

The post Isaacman planning to meet with head of Roscosmos appeared first on SpaceNews.

SNEWS

People say setting of fireworks indoors is dangerous, but I looked at their energy release and it's like 10^-40 foe; totally negligible.

The Promptware Kill Chain

The promptware kill chain: initial access, privilege escalation, reconnaissance, persistence, command & control, lateral movement, action on objective

Attacks against modern generative artificial intelligence (AI) large language models (LLMs) pose a real threat. Yet discussions around these attacks and their potential defenses are dangerously myopic. The dominant narrative focuses on “prompt injection,” a set of techniques to embed instructions into inputs to LLM intended to perform malicious activity. This term suggests a simple, singular vulnerability. This framing obscures a more complex and dangerous reality. Attacks on LLM-based systems have evolved into a distinct class of malware execution mechanisms, which we term “promptware.” In a new paper, we, the authors, propose a structured seven-step “promptware kill chain” to provide policymakers and security practitioners with the necessary vocabulary and framework to address the escalating AI threat landscape.

In our model, the promptware kill chain begins with Initial Access. This is where the malicious payload enters the AI system. This can happen directly, where an attacker types a malicious prompt into the LLM application, or, far more insidiously, through “indirect prompt injection.” In the indirect attack, the adversary embeds malicious instructions in content that the LLM retrieves (obtains in inference time), such as a web page, an email, or a shared document. As LLMs become multimodal (capable of processing various input types beyond text), this vector expands even further; malicious instructions can now be hidden inside an image or audio file, waiting to be processed by a vision-language model.

The fundamental issue lies in the architecture of LLMs themselves. Unlike traditional computing systems that strictly separate executable code from user data, LLMs process all input—whether it is a system command, a user’s email, or a retrieved document—as a single, undifferentiated sequence of tokens. There is no architectural boundary to enforce a distinction between trusted instructions and untrusted data. Consequently, a malicious instruction embedded in a seemingly harmless document is processed with the same authority as a system command.

But prompt injection is only the Initial Access step in a sophisticated, multistage operation that mirrors traditional malware campaigns such as Stuxnet or NotPetya.

Once the malicious instructions are inside material incorporated into the AI’s learning, the attack transitions to Privilege Escalation, often referred to as “jailbreaking.” In this phase, the attacker circumvents the safety training and policy guardrails that vendors such as OpenAI or Google have built into their models. Through techniques analogous to social engineering—convincing the model to adopt a persona that ignores rules—to sophisticated adversarial suffixes in the prompt or data, the promptware tricks the model into performing actions it would normally refuse. This is akin to an attacker escalating from a standard user account to administrator privileges in a traditional cyberattack; it unlocks the full capability of the underlying model for malicious use.

Following privilege escalation comes Reconnaissance. Here, the attack manipulates the LLM to reveal information about its assets, connected services, and capabilities. This allows the attack to advance autonomously down the kill chain without alerting the victim. Unlike reconnaissance in classical malware, which is performed typically before the initial access, promptware reconnaissance occurs after the initial access and jailbreaking components have already succeeded. Its effectiveness relies entirely on the victim model’s ability to reason over its context, and inadvertently turns that reasoning to the attacker’s advantage.

Fourth: the Persistence phase. A transient attack that disappears after one interaction with the LLM application is a nuisance; a persistent one compromises the LLM application for good. Through a variety of mechanisms, promptware embeds itself into the long-term memory of an AI agent or poisons the databases the agent relies on. For instance, a worm could infect a user’s email archive so that every time the AI summarizes past emails, the malicious code is re-executed.

The Command-and-Control (C2) stage relies on the established persistence and dynamic fetching of commands by the LLM application in inference time from the internet. While not strictly required to advance the kill chain, this stage enables the promptware to evolve from a static threat with fixed goals and scheme determined at injection time into a controllable trojan whose behavior can be modified by an attacker.

The sixth stage, Lateral Movement, is where the attack spreads from the initial victim to other users, devices, or systems. In the rush to give AI agents access to our emails, calendars, and enterprise platforms, we create highways for malware propagation. In a “self-replicating” attack, an infected email assistant is tricked into forwarding the malicious payload to all contacts, spreading the infection like a computer virus. In other cases, an attack might pivot from a calendar invite to controlling smart home devices or exfiltrating data from a connected web browser. The interconnectedness that makes these agents useful is precisely what makes them vulnerable to a cascading failure.

Finally, the kill chain concludes with Actions on Objective. The goal of promptware is not just to make a chatbot say something offensive; it is often to achieve tangible malicious outcomes through data exfiltration, financial fraud, or even physical world impact. There are examples of AI agents being manipulated into selling cars for a single dollar or transferring cryptocurrency to an attacker’s wallet. Most alarmingly, agents with coding capabilities can be tricked into executing arbitrary code, granting the attacker total control over the AI’s underlying system. The outcome of this stage determines the type of malware executed by promptware, including infostealer, spyware, and cryptostealer, among others.

The kill chain was already demonstrated. For example, in the research “Invitation Is All You Need,” attackers achieved initial access by embedding a malicious prompt in the title of a Google Calendar invitation. The prompt then leveraged an advanced technique known as delayed tool invocation to coerce the LLM into executing the injected instructions. Because the prompt was embedded in a Google Calendar artifact, it persisted in the long-term memory of the user’s workspace. Lateral movement occurred when the prompt instructed the Google Assistant to launch the Zoom application, and the final objective involved covertly livestreaming video of the unsuspecting user who had merely asked about their upcoming meetings. C2 and reconnaissance weren’t demonstrated in this attack.

Similarly, the “Here Comes the AI Worm” research demonstrated another end-to-end realization of the kill chain. In this case, initial access was achieved via a prompt injected into an email sent to the victim. The prompt employed a role-playing technique to compel the LLM to follow the attacker’s instructions. Since the prompt was embedded in an email, it likewise persisted in the long-term memory of the user’s workspace. The injected prompt instructed the LLM to replicate itself and exfiltrate sensitive user data, leading to off-device lateral movement when the email assistant was later asked to draft new emails. These emails, containing sensitive information, were subsequently sent by the user to additional recipients, resulting in the infection of new clients and a sublinear propagation of the attack. C2 and reconnaissance weren’t demonstrated in this attack.

The promptware kill chain gives us a framework for understanding these and similar attacks; the paper characterizes dozens of them. Prompt injection isn’t something we can fix in current LLM technology. Instead, we need an in-depth defensive strategy that assumes initial access will occur and focuses on breaking the chain at subsequent steps, including by limiting privilege escalation, constraining reconnaissance, preventing persistence, disrupting C2, and restricting the actions an agent is permitted to take. By understanding promptware as a complex, multistage malware campaign, we can shift from reactive patching to systematic risk management, securing the critical systems we are so eager to build.

This essay was written with Oleg Brodt, Elad Feldman and Ben Nassi, and originally appeared in Lawfare.

The Live Music Event That Changed My Life

I’ve occasionally mentioned that a visit to a nightclub in my teen years changed my life. Sometimes I’ve shared a few details, but I’ve never told the whole story.

But it’s worth telling. This incident had an earthshaking impact on me, transforming everything almost in an instant. Just knowing that these things are possible might help others—so I’ve decided to tell this tale in its entirety.

Many of us wonder how we find our own path in the world. This is the story of how it happened for me.


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I must have had some musical inclination as a small child. My mother kept a ‘baby book’ of photos and observations. It’s unsettling to read her description of me at the age of one—when, she writes, I liked to play the piano and drink coffee.

That could still describe me today. 

Mom wrote this about me when I was still a baby.

I’m probably still wary of strange men and continue to avoid sitting in any playpen. On a positive note, I don’t bite people anymore.

But I was not a child prodigy, not even close. Neither of my parents were musicians—so they didn’t see this as a career path.

I did have an Uncle Ted (I was named after him) who had an amazing musical gift, you might even describe it as genius. But he died in a plane crash at age 28, before I was born. So I never had him around as a role model, much to my later regret, although I may have benefited from a bit of his DNA.

But my parents did inherit his piano. That would later be very important in my development.

My first music lessons were a few encounters with Sister Camille Cecile, a nun who taught piano at my elementary school. These took place around 3rd or 4th grade, and I didn’t enjoy them. So I asked my parents if I could quit taking lessons, and they agreed.

They were spending three dollars per month on piano lessons. So if I wasn’t interested, that money could be used elsewhere in our tight family budget.

At that juncture, you would have never guessed that music would be important in my later vocation.


But something strange happened.

After I quit taking lessons, I continued to play the piano. In fact I started playing it more than ever—because now I was doing it for fun.

That’s how music should be pursued. For fun.

But there was a downside to this. I had no real direction, so I just invented my own way of learning about music. This involved composing my own simple songs. And I played other songs I liked, but did this mostly by ear. I was spending a lot of time at the piano, but it was very unstructured.

In my teen years, I spent a lot of my allowance money on sheet music. I often went down to Melody Music in my home town of Hawthorne, and occasionally to the Wallichs Music City branch in Torrance, across the street from the Del Amo Mall.

By the way, I suspect these were the same music stores frequented by Brian Wilson and the Beach Boys, who grew up near my family home. They were the only places to buy music stuff nearby. If I wanted a larger selection, I had to convince a family member to drive me to the main Wallichs on Sunset Boulevard in Hollywood—but that was a rare treat.

Wallichs in Hollywood was an amazing store. Movie stars (Bing Crosby, Judy Garland, etc.) were customers. Frank Zappa worked there selling hit singles to teens. Places like that simply don’t exist anymore.

Wallichs Music City at Sunset and Vine in Hollywood

I had some ability to read music, but I often just looked at the chord symbols above the music, and created my own arrangements of popular songs. You might say that was a sign of talent, but in some ways it was also a sign of laziness.

I mostly learned the songs I heard on the radio. On some occasions, I’d pull out a piece of classical music (or even ragtime, which started to enjoy a revival around that time), and play the written scores note-for-note. But I didn’t do anything in a consistent or disciplined way, even if I was getting better at the piano.

That’s when I discovered jazz.


But here’s the crazy thing. I learned about jazz at the public library. That is so uncool, I’m almost ashamed to admit it. I stumbled upon a stack of Downbeat magazines at the Hawthorne library, and read through them like they were some kind of holy script. Then I found some jazz books there too, and read every one of them.

At this juncture, I had never actually seen a jazz band make music. I didn’t even own any jazz records. How bizarre is that? I was turning into a jazz fan by reading about the music.

Then one day I decided to visit a jazz club.

This sounds like an easy thing to do, but it wasn’t at all. For a start, none of my friends went to jazz clubs, and it took me a while to find where these venues were located. Even worse, the clubs often refused entrance to teenagers. For that reason, I had to rule out going to Concerts by the Sea in nearby Redondo Beach—Howard Rumsey had a strict ‘no teens’ policy. Jazz greats played there regularly, and I later heard them by hanging around outside the door—but I never once went inside, or even saw the inside of the club.

Then one day I heard an advertisement on the radio for the Lighthouse in Hermosa Beach. The announcer would reel off the names of musicians playing there in his deep Barry White-ish voice, and conclude the ad by saying: “Minors are always cool at the Lighthouse.”

That meant me. I was a minor. And I wanted to be cool at the Lighthouse.

Here’s The Lighthouse on its 70th anniversary in 2019. It looks a little seedy now, but it wasn’t much more elegant when I first visited it. (Photo by Scott Varley of The Daily Breeze via Getty Images)

The club was located about 7 miles from our family home in Hawthorne. That’s not much in SoCal terms. Not only was the Lighthouse much closer than any of the ritzy Hollywood clubs, it was also cheaper.

This would be my gateway drug.

I chose an artist at random. I had seen the name Yusef Lateef in Downbeat magazine, but I may not even have known what instrument he played. But if he got written up in a national magazine, that was enough for me.

LA Times, July 20, 1975

So I showed up at the Lighthouse one night, not knowing much. But I was fortunate—the band was hot. Saxophonist Lateef had brought his working group of the time, which featured pianist Kenny Barron, bassist Bob Cunningham, and drummer Al ‘Tootie’ Heath.

There were also ‘jazz celebrities’ in the audience. Leonard Feather, the influential jazz critic for the LA Times, was sitting a few feet away from me. Pianist Toshiko Akiyoshi was sitting next to him. (I wouldn’t have recognized them, except that Lateef acknowledged their presence from the bandstand.)

I later realized that musicians often play better when visitors of this sort are in attendance. So this was another lucky break for my virgin jazz club experience.

When the musicians stepped on to the bandstand, the first thing I noticed was how close I was to them. A short while before, I had seen Bob Dylan play with The Band at the Forum in Inglewood, and could barely pick out the musicians from my seats high in the nosebleed zone. But these jazz clubs were different, very different—I was just a few feet away from the action, and every gesture, gaze and interaction among the players was discernible.

I was in the audience when this Bob Dylan album was recorded at the Forum—can you see me in the crowd?

I later learned how important these small gestures are in improvisation. I’ve seen bandleaders change the entire course of a song with just a single look. I didn’t know any of that back then, but I understood immediately that experiencing the music at such close quarters was what I had always craved without even knowing it.

But then the music started, and my life changed in the next few seconds.

Lateef counted in a very fast tempo. Up until this time, I had focused mostly on rock, pop, and classical music—and had no experience with songs played at this breakneck pace. Just hearing the rhythm section lock together at this tempo was exhilarating.

The impact on me was almost instantaneous.


Years later, I met an anthropologist who had studied kabuki theater in Japan. He told me that members of the audience often shouted out exhortations during a performance. He said he had been in attendance at one event where the guy behind him jumped up from his seat, at an especially dramatic juncture, and exclaimed:

This is the moment I’ve been waiting for.

When I heard him tell that story, I immediately recalled my initiation into jazz at the Lighthouse. That was exactly what I felt around 17 seconds into the performance by the Yusef Lateef Quartet. I honestly wanted to jump up, and tell everybody in the nightclub:

This is the moment I’ve been waiting for.

I knew in that instant that everything in my life had been leading up to this. And I’d been wasting my time with rock and pop and classical music. My destiny was jazz.

I should have figured it out before. This music had everything I’d ever wanted in a creative experience: intensity, intelligence, spontaneity, sophistication, interaction, emotional integrity, analytical depths.

But if this realization only took a few seconds, the song itself lasted for around 30 minutes. I had never heard a song that long before.

I was absolutely convinced the band must be playing a medley. That was my only previous conception of such an extended performance. The fact that the group went through several tempo changes, and even let Kenny Barron play a solo piano interlude, added to my sense of dislocation.

After this song finally came to a conclusion, Lateef stepped up to the mic and said that they had just played a composition called “Inside Atlantis” by Kenny Barron.

Nowadays, Kenny Barron is a jazz legend. He recently took the stop spot in the Downbeat poll—beating out all other jazz pianists. But he was less known in those days, and I had never heard his name before that evening.

Kenny Barron at the top of the Downbeat poll—beating out some very distinguished artists.

This was, after all, my first visit to a jazz club, so I simply assumed this was what a typical jazz pianist did on a typical evening—and this both delighted me and shook me up a bit. There was clearly a whole world of musical creativity thriving on the jazz scene, but I had never been aware of it until that night.

In subsequent months, I ransacked every record store in LA, trying to find this song “Inside Atlantis” on an album. I wanted to study it and unlock its secrets.

I had no luck. It had never been recorded. (It didn’t show up on an official album release until 2024!)

That also taught me something important about jazz. It happens in the moment. And if you hear it one night, don’t expect to find it on an a record. You can even go back and hear the same band the next night, and have a completely different experience.

Many decades later, I found a YouTube video of that Lateef band playing “Inside Atlantis.” This video eventually got removed from the web, but a shorter version of the song—which, unfortunately omits Kenny Barron’s unaccompanied piano interlude—is now available. So you can judge for yourself how a teen raised on top forty radio would have been totally unprepared for something of this sort.

I stayed for all three sets that night. I left the Lighthouse some time after 1 AM as a totally changed changed person.

Let me assure you: You won’t have this kind of experience staring into your phone. Nope. Never.

More than fifty years later, I still remember everything vividly. That’s how momentous this event was for me.

I can even tell you that bassist Bob Cunningham was wearing a Hunter College sweatshirt when he stepped on the bandstand. In subsequent days, I had a strong desire to own a Hunter College sweatshirt of my own. Maybe some of the magic would rub off on me.


I recently uncovered a review of the performance. For me it was life-changing. But for LA Times critic Leonard Feather it was just another gig.


Here’s the aftermath.

When I heard the music that night, I realized how much I still needed to learn. Although I had been playing piano for years at that point, I couldn’t understand much of what Kenny Barron was doing at the instrument.

In addition to these conceptual limitations, I also had technical constraints. I knew I needed to devote a lot more time to the keyboard—improving my control, tone, and dexterity. My fingers needed to be stronger, more independent. My mind, too.

I now started spending three hours per day, on average, at the piano. On some occasions, I would spend as much as six hours per day at my music.

It was my love, my passion, my everything.

TWO YEARS LATER: I could play jazz well enough to get gigs and start making a reputation as a professional musician.

FIVE YEARS LATER: I could play with top notch jazz professionals and hold my own, and maybe even shine for a moment

TEN YEARS LATER: I could walk into the recording studio, and play this—the first track on my first album.

My performing career came to an early end—because of a physical ailment. But I have no regrets. None.

Perhaps there were other lives I could have lived. But this was the one destiny gave me. Even today, I’m still living out the consequences of that Lighthouse moment, even if it doesn’t mean acclaim on the bandstand.

You don’t choose these things. They choose you. That’s how true vocations happen. The only difference in my case is that it all happened in just a few seconds.

“You see tech and AI everywhere but in the productivity statistics”

How many times have I heard versions of that claim?  Erik Brynjolfsson picks up the telephone in the FT:

While initial reports suggested a year of steady labour expansion in the US, the new figures reveal that total payroll growth was revised downward by approximately 403,000 jobs. Crucially, this downward revision occurred while real GDP remained robust, including a 3.7 per cent growth rate in the fourth quarter. This decoupling — maintaining high output with significantly lower labour input — is the hallmark of productivity growth.

My own updated analysis suggests a US productivity increase of roughly 2.7 per cent for 2025. This is a near doubling from the sluggish 1.4 per cent annual average that characterised the past decade.

It is fine to suggest caution in interpreting such statistics, but they hardly push the other way.

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Why digital connectivity has become essential for Americans traveling and working abroad

As international travel, remote work, and global collaboration continue to grow, Americans are spending more time outside the country than ever before. Whether for journalism, research, education, diplomacy, or business, being abroad no longer means being disconnected. In today’s environment, reliable digital connectivity has become a foundational requirement, shaping how people work, communicate, and stay informed beyond U.S. borders.

Mobility in a globally connected world

Global mobility is no longer limited to short-term tourism. Americans are increasingly studying abroad, working remotely, participating in international projects, or engaging with global institutions. At the same time, many essential services—from banking to healthcare access and government communication—now depend on constant internet availability.

In this context, connectivity functions less like a convenience and more like infrastructure, similar to transportation or electricity. Without it, participation in modern civic, professional, and social life becomes significantly harder.

How Americans rely on mobile data while abroad

For Americans overseas, mobile data supports a wide range of essential activities. Journalists file stories and verify sources in real time. Researchers access academic databases and collaborate with international peers. Remote workers attend meetings, manage projects, and maintain secure communication with U.S.-based teams.

Beyond work, connectivity enables access to reliable news, navigation tools, emergency information, and direct communication with family members or institutions back home. In moments of uncertainty or crisis, access to information can be critical.

The limits of traditional roaming and public Wi-Fi

Despite its importance, staying connected abroad is not always straightforward. Traditional roaming services can be expensive, leading users to limit data usage even when it is needed most. Public Wi-Fi networks, while widely available in some areas, raise concerns around security, reliability, and consistency—especially for professionals handling sensitive information.

These limitations often create unequal access, where connectivity depends more on location or budget than on actual need.

Technology responding to modern mobility

Recent advances in mobile technology are beginning to address these challenges. One of the most significant shifts has been toward digital-first connectivity models, including embedded SIM (eSIM) technology. Unlike traditional SIM cards, eSIMs allow users to activate and manage mobile data plans digitally, without relying on physical infrastructure or local providers.

In this context, solutions that allow users to get unlimited data with Holafly reflect how emerging technologies are responding to the real connectivity needs of Americans abroad, particularly those who require consistent access for work, research, or public-interest activities.

Who is most affected by connectivity challenges

Connectivity issues disproportionately affect groups whose work depends on timely information and secure communication. These include journalists reporting from abroad, NGO and humanitarian workers operating in complex environments, students and educators participating in international programs, and contractors or freelancers supporting U.S.-based organizations from overseas locations.

For these individuals, unreliable access is not merely inconvenient—it can disrupt work, compromise safety, or limit access to essential services.

Connectivity as part of modern global citizenship

As global movement becomes more common, access to digital infrastructure increasingly shapes who can participate fully in international life. Connectivity supports not only economic activity, but also access to information, public discourse, and cross-border collaboration.

From this perspective, reliable mobile data is becoming part of what it means to function as a global citizen in the modern world. As technology continues to evolve, solutions that reduce barriers to access will play a growing role in supporting Americans wherever their work or responsibilities take them.


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Extremely Lazy and Immensely Curious

When I explain that Claude Code has changed my relationship with developing software completely, I’m under-exaggerating… if that’s even a thing.

This off-the-cuff piece started as a unposted social update that read:

Watching Claude Code adeptly use every type of Unix command shows me that a) you can do anything in Unix, b) my higher-level operating system mostly hides this functionality from me, c) I am extremely lazy, and d) I am immensely curious.

An Introduction to Pansy Rain

This morning it’s going to start to rain — a lot. As previously described, I deeply enjoy tromping around my forest in the rain, fixing drainage, and pulling sticks from stuff. More importantly, I am deeply curious about how the weather works. This is curiosity motivated by an immense fear of climate change and a desire to understand clearly what will occur this week. And why.

Years ago, I started posting a short paragraph to a group chat filled with fellow mountain Dads. It was a three or four-paragraph affair about what was going to happen with the weather in the coming week. No one requested this lightweight and trying-to-be-approachable blurb. It started and stopped during the rainy season in Northern California, but over time, I continued through the summer, starting to track heat events, air quality (see fires), and fog.

Here’s the one from last week:

Welcome back, Winter. We missed you. Rain, lots of it this week. Chance of pansy rain tonight, but I wouldn’t count on it. Looks like we’re in for a solid inch-plus on Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening, but the show starts on Saturday night. Solid chonky rain through the end of the week and into next. Weirdly, the first storm is coming from Hawaii (wet), but the big weekend fronts are coming from Alaska. This latter rain is going to hang.

See? Approachable? My initial goal was that anyone could quickly read this blurb and plan for their week. Ah, yes. Rain on Tuesday. I will plan accordingly.

The friendly tone and brief amount of content might lead you to believe the construction was equally brief. It’s not. The initial flow was:

  • Fire up Wunderground’s 10-day forecast. This deliciously informationally dense chart is my go-to initial stop for all things local weather. It includes rain, cloud cover, chance of precipitation, accumulated rain, and wind speed — and a lot more.
  • Compare against Windy.com. Windy has similar information to Wunderground, but includes stunning maps that include a mind-boggling amount of different layer visualizations. The goal was to compare data from Wunderground to what Windy reported, which tended to provide better rain forecasts from my local microclimate.

It started as 30 minutes of work, and it grew to over an hour of research. As I received light positive feedback for the posts, I started to research data on local streams and reservoirs, along with other fun facts I discovered during my research.

Then the robots showed up.

An Introduction to Chonky Rain

This morning. Just this morning. Here’s what I’ve done with Claude Code:

  • Pulled snapshots from my local weather station to backfill my storm tracker, which is a feature I built last night to track before, during, and after snapshots of storms. I wanted to see all storms (8) from this season, so I had the robots look at historical data, find the storms, and then backfill using my local weather station and open data sources (Weatherlink, Open-Meteo, Valley Water, and others)
  • Found an issue with the data where I was fixing a sensor issue, which caused a data spike. Smoothed the spike.
  • Comparing my local readings with other data sources; refined a multiplier I use to account for my microclimate.
  • Updated creek data to include week-over-week change, so I get a better sense of how water is flowing down those mountains, into the reservoir, and then into town.
  • Moved all this data into the Sunday report mail that I use to write my four-sentence approachable blurb.
  • Oh yeah, as I write this piece, the robots and I are now planning what we’re going to track during the Summer. Fire alerts, air quality, and fog monitoring.

This morning’s work builds on an existing set of scripts that run early every Sunday morning to track:

  • Weather observations and color for the coming week.
  • Current conditions from my local weather station.
  • Last 7 days of rainfall.
  • 10-day forecast.
  • Local reservoirs week-over-week change.
  • The first version of my storm tracker functionality.

I am perfectly capable of building any part of the above system. I am capable of finding the services that provide the information, signing up for an API, understanding the API, building code to call that API, generating a report, and sending that report as an email. Done it a lot. Made a successful career of it, too.

I’ve written none of the code for this weather project. I’ve signed up for some API keys, but mostly what I’ve done is tell Claude Code what I’m looking to do and let the robot figure out what API we need, how to use it, and then suggest different ways we can report this information.

Extremely Lazy and Immensely Curious

When I go through these types of robot-related productivity rants, someone invariably unhelpfully volunteers, “Well, this is a good way to get really dumb.” What this someone is suggesting is that because I am doing none of the work involved in building the thing, I will not intellectually profit from the exercise.

In a world where I hadn’t spent several decades building software, I would partially agree. The lack of domain experience could mean I trust whatever the robot’s built at face value, but — just like humans — the robots make mistakes and often straight-up lie. Been dealing with those situations for a bunch of decades, too. It’s not a problem, it’s how humans (and robots) work.

Yes, I am extremely lazy. I’ve developed a set of habits that support this laziness. Where’s the best affordable Italian restaurant in Greenwich Village? Ask Noah. He knows, and he responds quickly. How should I think about this emotionally charged and complicated people situation? Ask Julia. She knows, and she can view complete emotional chaos dispassionately. Which API should I use to monitor fog? Ask the robots. They don’t know, but they know how to know.

Am I sad as I watch the robot expertly craft semi-familiar Unix commands to perform all the weather-related wizardry? Nope. I learned to delegate to humans a long time ago. It was hard to give up the Legos to someone else, but this forced me to learn other lessons. How to ask others to help. How to clearly make requests. How to listen to their responses to see if they heard. Hearing them. Watching how they work and when they ask for help. Learning how to taste the soup. Discovering lies. Fixing them. Remaining immensely curious and always learning how to communicate better.

Here’s this week’s weather blurb. Written by me:

At this second, it’s partly sunny at the house, but just wait. It’s coming. Around noon today, chonk-i-ish rain begins and continues through Monday. Let’s say two inches today and three inches tomorrow. Sweet. Short break on Monday night, but another inch on Tuesday and a drizzle on Wednesday before we dry out a bit, but more next week. Might be chonky.

(Two inches last week at Chez Rands, Lexington Reservoir up 2.5% on the week, twenty-nine inches for this rain season so far.)

Monday assorted links

1. Andrew Hall on improving the operation of prediction markets.

2. A new aesthetic for San Francisco.

3. Intelligent AI delegation.  And Seb Krier.  And Abigail Shrier.  All of this can change your life.

4. Krugman on tariff incidence.

5. The century of the maxxer (“How many apricots can fit in your mouth?”).  Excellent piece.

6. Andy Goldsworthy (New Yorker).  Ditto.

7. Claims.

8. Chris Arnade on Duluth.

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Updated thoughts on AI risk

So the other day I wrote a post about how humanity is inevitably going to be disempowered by the existence of AI:

A bunch of people wrote to me and asked me: “What made you change your mind?”. Three years ago, shortly after the release of the original ChatGPT, I wrote a post about how LLMs are not going to destroy the human race:

And just a couple of months ago, I wrote a post arguing that ASI (artificial superintelligence) is likely to peacefully coexist with humanity rather than kill us off.

People wanted to know why my tone had shifted from optimistic to pessimistic.

Well, the simple answer to that is “I was in a worse mood.” My rabbit was sick,1 so I was kind of grumpy, and so in my post a few days ago I painted the eventual disempowerment of humanity as more of a negative thing than I usually do. In fact, I’ve always believed that at some point, humanity would be replaced with something posthuman — godlike AIs, a hive mind, modified humans, or whatever. I grew up reading science fiction about that kind of thing — Vernor Vinge, Charles Stross, Arthur C. Clarke, Iain M. Banks, and so on — and it just always seemed impossible that humanity had already attained the theoretical pinnacle of intelligence.2 I had always simply envisioned that whatever came after us would be in the general human family, and would be more likely to be on our side than against us.

That’s what my post the other day was about. I painted a more glum picture of humanity’s eventual supersession because I was in a bad mood. But even in that post, at the end, I offered optimism that ASI will save us from things like low fertility, fascist overlords, and the end of human-driven scientific discovery. That optimistic future would be like the Culture novels, by Iain M. Banks, in which AIs take the reins of civilization but in which they respect and help and protect a now-mostly-useless humanity — basically a much nicer, more enlightened version of the way the United States of America treats Native Americans nowadays. It’s a wistful future, and in some ways a sad one, but not particularly terrifying.

BUT, at the same time, I have gotten a lot more worried about existential, catastrophic AI risk — the kind of thing that would kill us instead of just rendering us comfortably impotent — than I was three years ago. And so the people who wrote to ask me why my tone had shifted deserve a longer explanation about why I’m more worried.

What I got wrong three years ago

In my post three years ago, I argued that LLMs were not yet the kind of AI that could threaten the human race. I think I was probably right regarding the type of LLMs that existed in early 2023, for the reasons I laid out in that post. In a nutshell, I argued that since all LLMs could do was talk to people, the only way they could destroy the human race was by convincing us to destroy ourselves (unlikely) or by teaching us how to destroy ourselves (for example, by educating bioterrorists about how to make bioweapons).

In my defense, this is not too different from the scenario that Eliezer Yudkowsky — who literally wrote the book on existential AI risk — envisioned in 2022. He wrote:

My lower-bound model of “how a sufficiently powerful intelligence would kill everyone, if it didn’t want to not do that” is that it gets access to the Internet, emails some DNA sequences to any of the many many online firms that will take a DNA sequence in the email and ship you back proteins, and bribes/persuades some human who has no idea they’re dealing with an AGI to mix proteins in a beaker, which then form a first-stage nanofactory which can build the actual nanomachinery.

This is about AI teaching people how to make self-replicating nanomachinery instead of a doomsday virus. But honestly I feel like the doomsday virus would be easier to make. So I don’t think my scenario was too far behind the thinking of the most vocal and panicky AI safety people back in 2023.

Anyway, if I had said “chatbots” instead of “LLMs” in my 2023 post, I think I still would have been correct, because a chatbot is a type of user interface, while an LLM is an underlying technology that can be used to do much more than make a chatbot. What I missed was that LLMs can do a lot more than just talk to people — they can write code, because code is just a language, and it’s not too hard to get them to do this in an automated, end-to-end, agentic fashion.

In other words, I didn’t envision the advent of vibe-coding. And I probably should have. To be fair, the advent of vibe-coding required some big technological advances3 that didn’t exist in early 2023. But missing the fact that computer code is just a language that can be learned like any other — and that in fact it’s easier to learn, since you can verify when it works and when it doesn’t work — was a big miss for me. And it opens up the door to a LOT of other scary scenarios, beyond “A chatbot helps humans to do something bad”.

So anyway, let’s talk about what I’m scared about now. But first, let’s talk about what I’m less scared about, at least for the moment.

The rise of the robots is still a ways away

The scenario that everyone tends to think about is one in which a fully autonomous ASI decides that human civilization is an impediment to its use of natural resources, and that we need to be exterminated, enslaved, or otherwise radically disempowered in order to turn the world into data centers. This is basically the plot of the Terminator movies,4 the Matrix movies, and various other “rise of the robots” stories.

Conceptually speaking it’s easy to envision an AI that’s advanced enough to carry this out. It would have full control over an entirely automated chain of AI production, including:

  • Mining, refining, and processing of minerals

  • Fabrication of chips and construction of data centers

  • Manufacturing of robots

Controlling this entire chain would give AI control over its own reproduction — the way humans have always had control over our own reproduction. It could then safely dispense with humanity without endangering its own future.

This is basically a very direct analogy to what European settlers did to Native American civilization, or what various other waves of human conquerors and colonizers do to other groups of humans.

I think this scenario is worth worrying about, but it’s not immediate. Right now, robotics is still fairly rudimentary — things are advancing, but AI will need humans as its agents in the physical world for years to come. Furthermore, AI will need some algorithmic changes before it can permanently “survive” on its own without humans — long memory, for one. I’m not saying these won’t happen, but at least we have some time to think about how to prevent the “rise of the robots” scenario. I do think we should have some people (and AI) thinking about how to harden our society against that sort of attack.

It seems likely that AI will eventually get smart enough to think its way around whatever physical safeguards we put in place against the rise of the robots. But as I wrote two months ago, I think an AI advanced enough to fully control the physical world would have already reached the stage where it understands that peaceful coexistence and positive-sum interaction is a better long-term bet than genocide. Smarter humans and richer human societies both tend to be more peaceful, and I sort of expect the same from smarter AI.

So I think there are other worries to prioritize here.

What if the Machine stops?

In my post three years ago, I tried to list the ways that LLMs might eventually destroy us:

Here’s a list of ways the human race could die within a relatively short time frame:

  • Nuclear war

  • Bioweapons

  • Other catastrophic WMDs (asteroid strike, etc.)

  • Mass suicide

  • Extermination by robots

  • Major environmental catastrophe

The advent of vibe-coding has made me think of another way our civilization could be destroyed, which I probably should have thought of at the time: starvation.

Every piece of agricultural machinery in the developed world, more or less, runs on software now — every tractor, every harvester, every piece of food processing machinery. That software was mostly written by human hands, but in a fairly short period of time, it will all be vibe-coded by AI.

At that point, AI would, in principle, have the ability to bring down human civilization simply by making agricultural software stop working. It could push malicious updates, or hack in and take over, or wipe the software, etc. Agricultural machines would stop working, and in a few weeks the entire human population would begin to starve. Civilization would fall soon afterwards.

I really should have thought of this scenario when I wrote my post in 2023, because it’s the plot of a very famous science fiction story from 1909: “The Machine Stops”, by E.M. Forster. In this story, humanity lives in separate rooms, communicating with each other only electronically,5 cared for entirely by a vast AI; when the AI stops working, most of humanity starves.

This could happen to us soon. Now that vibe-coding is many times as productive as human coding, it’s very possible that a lot fewer people will get good at coding. Even the tools that exist right now might be eroding humans’ skills at working with code. This is from a recent Anthropic study:

AI creates a potential tension: as coding grows more automated and speeds up work, humans will still need the skills to catch errors, guide output, and ultimately provide oversight for AI deployed in high-stakes environments. Does AI provide a shortcut to both skill development and increased efficiency? Or do productivity increases from AI assistance undermine skill development?

In a randomized controlled trial, we examined 1) how quickly software developers picked up a new skill (in this case, a Python library) with and without AI assistance; and 2) whether using AI made them less likely to understand the code they’d just written.

We found that using AI assistance led to a statistically significant decrease in mastery. On a quiz that covered concepts they’d used just a few minutes before, participants in the AI group scored 17% lower than those who coded by hand, or the equivalent of nearly two letter grades.

Meanwhile, Harry Law wrote a good post called “The Last Temptation of Claude”, about how the ease of vibe-coding is making him mentally lazier. There are many other such posts going around.

As vibe-coding becomes even better and eliminates humans entirely from the loop, the need for human software skills will presumably atrophy further. Ten years from now, if the software that runs our agricultural machinery just stops working for some reason, there’s a good chance there will not be enough human coders around to get it working again.

This would simply be a special case of a well-known problem — overoptimization creating fragility. When Covid hit in 2020, we found out that our just-in-time supply chains had been so over-engineered for efficiency that they lacked robustness. Vibe-coding could lead to a much worse version of the same problem.

That said, AI going on a catastrophic strike isn’t at the top of my list of fears. The reason is that I expect AI to be very fragmented; so far, no AI company seems to have any kind of monopoly, even for a short period of time. If the AI that writes the code for harvesters and tractors suddenly goes rogue, it seems like there’s a good chance that humans can call in another AI to fix it.

I guess it’s possible that all the AIs will collude so that none of them will help humans survive, or that the rogue AI(s) will be able to maliciously lock humans out from applying non-rogue AI to fix the problem. So people should be thinking about how to harden our agricultural system against software disruption. But it’s also not at the top of my list of doomsday worries.

Vibe-coding the apocalypse

OK, so what is at the top of my list of doomsday worries? It’s still AI bioterrorism.

Hunting down and killing humans with an army of robots would be fairly hard. Depriving humans of food so that we starve to death would be easier, but still a little bit hard. But slaughtering humans with a suite of genetically engineered viruses would not actually be very hard. As we saw in 2020, humans are very vulnerable to novel viruses.

Imagine the following scenario. In the near future, virology research is basically automated. Labs are robotic, and AI designs viruses in simulation before they’re created in labs. For whatever personal reasons, a human terrorist wants to destroy the human race. Using techniques he reads about on the internet, he jailbreaks a near-cutting-edge AI in order to remove all safeguards. He then prompts this AI to vibe-code a simulation that can design 100 superviruses. Each supervirus is 10x as contagious as Covid, has a 90% fatality rate, and has a long initial asymptomatic period so it’ll spread far and wide before it starts killing its victims. He then prompts his AI to vibe-code a program to hack into every virology lab on the planet and produce these 100 viruses, then release them into the human population.

If successful, this would quickly lead to the end of human civilization, and quite possibly to the extinction of the entire human species.

Is it possible? I don’t know. But developments seem to be moving in the direction of making it possible. For example, bio labs are becoming more automated all the time:

And AI algorithms are rapidly getting better at simulating things like proteins:

“Virtual labs” powered by “AI scientists” are becoming commonplace in the world of bio. And there is plenty of fear about how AI-powered laboratories might be used to create superviruses. Here’s a story that ran in Time magazine almost a year ago:

A new study claims that AI models like ChatGPT and Claude now outperform PhD-level virologists in problem-solving in wet labs, where scientists analyze chemicals and biological material. This discovery is a double-edged sword, experts say. Ultra-smart AI models could help researchers prevent the spread of infectious diseases. But non-experts could also weaponize the models to create deadly bioweapons.

The study, shared exclusively with TIME, was conducted by researchers at the Center for AI Safety, MIT’s Media Lab, the Brazilian university UFABC, and the pandemic prevention nonprofit SecureBio. The authors consulted virologists to create an extremely difficult practical test which measured the ability to troubleshoot complex lab procedures and protocols. While PhD-level virologists scored an average of 22.1% in their declared areas of expertise, OpenAI’s o3 reached 43.8% accuracy. Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro scored 37.6%.

I am not a biology expert, and I plan to go ask more of them about this worry (as well as having AI educate me more). I asked GPT-5.2 what it thought about this risk, and here are some excerpts from what it wrote:6

[A]utomation can increase throughput and reduce expertise needed, which is directionally risk-increasing. But it doesn’t magically eliminate the underlying biological constraints…

[AI safety] guardrails can be bypassed sometimes. Also, you don’t necessarily need a frontier model to be dangerous if you have access to domain tools, leaked data, or insider capability…

A more realistic worry is a small number (1–a few) of engineered or selected agents that are “good enough” (highly transmissible and significantly more lethal than typical pandemics)…

AI accelerates, but it doesn’t replace the need for experimental validation [of new viruses] —yet…

If an attacker can truly create one pathogen that is (a) highly transmissible, (b) substantially more lethal than typical pandemics, and (c) hard to contain early, then you already have global-catastrophe potential…A single “good enough” pathogen, combined with poor detection and slow countermeasures, can be catastrophic.

Probability of “one compromised lab enables a catastrophic engineered outbreak”: still low, but not negligible, and plausibly higher than many other X-risk stories because it has fewer required miracles.

Probability of “human extinction via this route”: lower than “catastrophe/collapse,” but not zero; it remains deep tail risk.

GPT’s recommendations all included maintaining humans in the loop of biology research. But after what we’ve seen with vibe-coding over the past few months, how confident can we be that labs all across the world — including in China — will insist on maintaining humans in the loop, when full automation would speed up productivity and improve competitiveness? I can’t say I’m incredibly optimistic here.

So the advent of vibe-coding has significantly increased my own worries about truly catastrophic AI risk. It seems clear now that brute economic forces will push humanity in the direction of taking humans out of the loop anywhere they can be taken out. And in any domain where data is plentiful, outputs can be verified, and there are no physical bottlenecks, it seems likely that keeping humans in the loop will eventually prove un-economical.

Really, this boils down to another example of overoptimization creating fragility. But it’s an especially extreme and catastrophic one. I don’t think humanity is doomed, but I don’t see many signs that our governments and other systems are yet taking the threat of vibe-coded superviruses as seriously as they ought to be. Not even close.

So if you ask me if my worries about AI risk have shifted materially in recent months, the answer is “Yes.” I still think Skynet or Agent Smith is highly unlikely to appear and exterminate humanity with an army of robots in the near future. But I will admit that the thought of vibe-coded superviruses is now keeping me up at night.


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1

He’s better now!

2

In fact, if we had been the smartest possible creatures in the Universe, that itself would be a pretty glum future.

3

From what I can tell, the most important such advance was verifier-based reinforcement learning that enabled test-time compute scaling…

4

Well, sort of. In the Terminator movies, Skynet is a military AI who sees humans as a military threat.

5

It’s pretty wild that a contemporary of H.G. Wells could have envisioned both AI and modern social media.

6

Encouragingly, it stopped answering my questions pretty quickly, because this topic hit the guardrails.

Minimum Wages for Gig Workers Can’t Work

In 2017, I analyzed the Uber Tipping Equilibrium:

What is the effect of tipping on the take-home pay of Uber drivers? Economic theory offers a clear answer. Tipping has no effect on take home pay. The supply of Uber driver-hours is very elastic. Drivers can easily work more hours when the payment per ride increases and since every person with a decent car is a potential Uber driver it’s also easy for the number of drivers to expand when payments increase. As a good approximation, we can think of the supply of driver-hours as being perfectly elastic at a fixed market wage. What this means is that take home pay must stay constant even when tipping increases.

…If Uber holds fares constant, the higher net wage (tips plus fares) will attract more drivers but as the number of drivers increases their probability of finding a rider will fall. The drivers will earn more when driving but spend less time driving and more time idling. In other words, tipping will increase the “driving wage,” but reduce paid driving-time until the net hourly wage is pushed back down to the market wage.

A paper by Hall, Horton and Knoepfle showed that’s exactly what happened.

More recently, in 2024, Seattle implemented “PayUp”, a pay package for gig workers like DoorDash workers that required a minimum wage based on the time worked and miles travelled for each offer. Note that this is not a minimum wage for all workers but for one type of worker in a large market. For this reason, we can use the same analysis as with Uber tipping. The supply of workers is very elastic and essentially fixed at the market wage for workers of similar skill. Thus, we would expect a zero effect on net pay.

Here is a recent NBER paper by An, Garin and Kovak looking at the effects of the Seattle law:

We find that the minimum pay law raised delivery pay per task….At the same time, the policy led to a reduction in the number of tasks completed by highly attached incumbent drivers (but not an increase in exit from delivery work), completely offsetting increased pay per task and leading to zero effect on monthly earnings. We find evidence that drivers experienced more unpaid idle time and longer distances driven between tasks…Using a simple model of the labor market for platform delivery drivers, we show that our evidence is consistent with free entry of drivers into the delivery market driving down the task-finding rate until expected earnings return to their pre-reform level.

All of this is a general result of the Happy Meal Fallacy.

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Joe Halpern (1953-2026)

 Joseph Halpern was an early explorer of the interface between computer science and game theory.  

Here's his funeral home obit: 

Joseph Y. Halpern
May 29, 1953 — February 13, 2026 

"Joe spent nearly 30 years as a professor of computer science at Cornell, and was considered a pioneer in his field. He was famous for having an impressive influence in a wide variety of topics, working extensively at the intersection of computer science, philosophy, and game theory. His work has reshaped the way we think about topics such as reasoning about knowledge and causality. He is the recipient of prestigious awards such as the Gödel Prize and Dijkstra Prize, the co-author of three highly influential books, six patents, and over 300 papers." 

 

His student Daphne Koller writes:

In Memoriam: Joe Halpern

"Yesterday, my PhD advisor, Joe Halpern, passed away after a long battle with lung cancer. He was a brilliant mathematician, a transformative mentor, and a truly wonderful human being.

"Joe possessed the rare ability to identify unusual, deeply interesting problems and solve them with breathtaking elegance and rigor. He was also a master communicator who could distill the most complex concepts into simple, straightforward truths—a skill I strive to emulate every day." 

 

Here's his Google Scholar Page: Jospeh Halpern 

The AI Vampire

The AI Vampire

Steve Yegge's take on agent fatigue, and its relationship to burnout.

Let's pretend you're the only person at your company using AI.

In Scenario A, you decide you're going to impress your employer, and work for 8 hours a day at 10x productivity. You knock it out of the park and make everyone else look terrible by comparison.

In that scenario, your employer captures 100% of the value from you adopting AI. You get nothing, or at any rate, it ain't gonna be 9x your salary. And everyone hates you now.

And you're exhausted. You're tired, Boss. You got nothing for it.

Congrats, you were just drained by a company. I've been drained to the point of burnout several times in my career, even at Google once or twice. But now with AI, it's oh, so much easier.

Steve reports needing more sleep due to the cognitive burden involved in agentic engineering, and notes that four hours of agent work a day is a more realistic pace:

I’ve argued that AI has turned us all into Jeff Bezos, by automating the easy work, and leaving us with all the difficult decisions, summaries, and problem-solving. I find that I am only really comfortable working at that pace for short bursts of a few hours once or occasionally twice a day, even with lots of practice.

Via Tim Bray

Tags: steve-yegge, ai, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, ai-ethics, coding-agents, cognitive-debt

The Milky Way’s glistening band

The setting of today’s Picture of the Week is ESO’s flagship facility: the Paranal Observatory, located in the Chilean Atacama Desert. One of the Auxiliary Telescopes of ESO’s Very Large Telescope is still asleep, with its spherical dome closed. How bad, it misses this wonderful view of the Milky Way!

In ancient times, people weren't too sure what the Milky Way was. They named it after its appearance — a milky band in the night sky. It was Galileo Galilei who first pointed a self-built small telescope at that structure. He realised that the Milky Way was formed of countless stars — a revolutionary discovery!

Our understanding of the Milky Way has advanced considerably: some 100 to 400 billion stars of all ages, masses and colours belong to it. Located in a spiral arm, 25 000 light years away from the centre, is our Sun, making the Milky Way our home galaxy. From this position, we can see the galactic centre very well, as shown in this picture taken by Chilean astrophotographer Alexis Trigo. Large lanes of dark clouds are visible. These dark nebulae block the light from the stars behind them, creating the illusion of fewer stars in that region.

Viewing the glistening band of the Milky Way has been an incredible experience for ages. We have learned a lot about our home galaxy since then, but there is still so much more to uncover. It remains to be seen what revolutionary discoveries ESO’s upcoming Extremely Large Telescope will bring us.

Malthus had real influence

From a recent paper by Eric Robertson:

Public officials often fail to implement government policy as directed, yet the role of economic ideas in shaping these implementation choices is poorly understood. This paper provides causal evidence that exposure to economic ideas can durably influence bureaucrat behavior. I study British colonial bureaucrats in India, exploiting a natural experiment created by the abrupt death of Thomas Malthus in 1834, replacing his economics instruction at a bureaucrat training college for that of a contemporary critic, Richard Jones. Whereas Malthus regarded economic distress as a natural mechanism for restoring equilibrium by reducing population growth, Jones disagreed with this view. Linking rainfall shocks to district-level fiscal responses, I show that officials trained by Malthus delivered less relief during droughts, providing 0.10-0.25 SD less aid across all major measures compared with officials taught by Jones. The results reveal that exposure to abstract economic ideas can shape real-world policy implementation for decades.

This may be a case where using rainfall shocks in a paper actually makes sense.  Via Krzysztof Tyszka-Drozdowski.

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India’s AI wedding buffet

Shruti Rajagopalan surveys much of the AI policy debate in India.  Excerpt:

If there is a single domain where India’s AI ambitions will succeed or fail, it is energy. And energy in India is not a technology problem. It is a political economy problem, arguably the most intractable one the country faces.

India’s peak electricity demand hit 250 GW in May 2024, up from 143 GW a decade earlier. The IEA forecasts 6.3 percent annual growth through 2027, faster than any major economy. Cooling demand alone could reach 140 GW of peak load by 2030. One number captures the trajectory. For each incremental degree in daily average temperature, peak demand now rises by more than 7 GW. In 2019 the figure was half that. India is getting hotter, richer, and more electricity-hungry simultaneously.

State-controlled distribution companies have accumulated $83.7 billion in debt because energy prices have been politically distorted for decades. Over 50 GW of renewable capacity sits underutilized. About 60 GW is stranded behind inadequate transmission. The shortage is financial and infrastructural, not resource-based. Without reforming distribution pricing, governance, and grid investment ($50 billion estimated by 2035), new renewable capacity will not become reliable electricity. It will become another line item on a DISCOM balance sheet no one wants to read.

India’s electricity reaches consumers through 72 distribution companies, 44 of them state-owned, collectively the most financially distressed utilities in the world. Accumulated losses stood at ₹6.92 trillion ($76.89 billion) as of March 2024, rising every year despite five government bailouts since 2002.

Substantive throughout.

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Surveying Popes Creek

A satellite image centered on the area George Washington was born features a dusting of white snow on farmland, shallow tidal streams along the Potomac River, and green patches of forest.
January 19, 2026

George Washington spent much of his life at Mount Vernon, his beloved estate in Virginia overlooking the Potomac River, but that is not where life began for America’s first president. He was born on February 22, 1732, about 80 miles (130 kilometers) to the south in Westmoreland County, in a brick house along Popes Creek.

Though mid-February is typically chilly in Westmoreland County, signs of spring had started to emerge across the swampy, rolling lands held by the family when Washington was born. The birth, according to a brief note in the Washington family Bible, occurred around 10 a.m. on a day when the jasmine and jonquils had begun to bloom.

The OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 captured this scene of the lands west of Popes Creek—now the site of the George Washington Birthplace National Monument—on January 19, 2026. While the home where Washington was born sat just a few hundred feet from Popes Creek, lands owned by the Washington family extended northwest toward Mattox Creek. The family’s burial ground lies in the center of the image along Bridges Creek, where dozens of relatives are interred, including Washington’s parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents on his father’s side.

Washington’s time at Popes Creek was brief, and the historical record detailing his time there is limited. What is known, however, is that before his parents moved the family to Mount Vernon, he spent his first three-and-a-half years living on farmland in an area first settled by his great-great-grandfather in 1657. Archaeological evidence indicates that Native Americans used the land to hunt game and the area’s streams and rivers to harvest oysters and fish for shad and herring prior to the arrival of Europeans. George Washington’s father used the land to manage a plantation and, with a few dozen enslaved people, raised tobacco and tended a kitchen garden with herbs, fruits, and vegetables.

After the family’s move to Mount Vernon, Washington made occasional visits to Popes Creek. Historians think that during one of these, he made an early attempt at land surveying, an activity that would later become his occupation. Below is an image of what is likely one of his first surveying maps, drafted when he was a teenager, depicting the lands around Popes Creek. The map accurately represents the location of several key waterways, including Mattox Creek, Bridges Creek, and Popes Creek. Both Mattox Creek and Popes Creek are tidal tributary streams of the Potomac, meaning their flow is influenced by the ebb and flow of ocean tides.

A photo features two maps that illustrate the birthplace of George Washington in Westmoreland County, Virginia. The upper map is believed to have been created by Washington himself in 1747. The lower map is a modern rendition. Both maps show significant geographic features such as Popes Creek and Bridges Creek.
1747

By the age of 17, Washington had been named the official surveyor of nearby Culpeper County. He completed 199 surveys within three years, covering more than 60,000 acres (24,000 hectares), according to the Mount Vernon Ladies’ Association. He also conducted surveys on Virginia’s western frontier in Frederick and Hampshire counties. Historians credit the backcountry and mapmaking skills he gained as a land surveyor with playing an important role in his military career during the French and Indian War and ultimately helping launch his rise to general and commander-in-chief during the Revolutionary War and, eventually, to the U.S. presidency.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Map courtesy of the David Rumsey Map Collection, David Rumsey Map Center, Stanford Libraries. Story by Adam Voiland.

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Joanna Stern Signs Off From The Wall Street Journal

Joanna Stern (last week):

After 12 years with The Wall Street Journal, this is my final column and video as a full-time employee. I’m off to build something new and independent. I’ll still pop up on these pages and at WSJ events from time to time. Can’t get rid of me that easily! Before I go, I wanted to reflect on the past dozen years in tech — in a letter to my first-month-on-the-job self.

The video version of her sign-off column is worth it for the Velveeta gag alone.

 ★ 

Rigging Elections, Trump Style

Kristi Noem’s Arizona Remarks Signal Trump Team’s Election Control Strategy

Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem’s portfolio has nothing to do with elections, but in Arizona last week she spoke words revealing the Trump administration’s bold intent to rig the 2026 and 2028 elections, which if successful means ending our liberties. Noem said:

“When it gets to Election Day, we’ve been proactive to make sure that we have the right people voting, electing the right leaders to lead this country.”

Lots of luck trying to find her words on the front page of newspapers or the network news shows, however. The excuses for not reporting this are simple: It’s unclear what she meant. It’s not news because it’s not new, just new phrasing. And since elections are not part of Noem’s portfolio her words aren’t significant.

On Friday Trump delivered further evidence of his foul intentions in an outrageously inappropriate speech to troops at Fort Bragg where he appeared beside a GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate.

“You have to vote for us,” he declared.

Fortunately, most of the soldiers remained silent, as they are supposed to. The light applause came from civilians who support Trump and his efforts to politicize our military. News coverage of this was greater than of Noem’s remarks, but still far from robust.

But bad news judgment aside, you should be alarmed at what Noem said. Let me explain the reasons.

Noem’s minions and defenders argue that by “right people” she means citizens and nothing more. That defense is beyond weak because non-citizen voting is extremely rare no matter how often Trump and his acolytes spread his lies.

The Heritage Foundation, source of Trump’s Project 2025 wrecking ball playbook, found only 24 instances from 2003 to 2023. That’s 24 votes out of billions for president, Senate and House over two decades. Bupkis.

The Cato Institute, a libertarian promoting organization with a solid reputation for being principled, denounced this lie just this month in clear terms: Trump’s Claims About Noncitizens Voting Are False. We Can Prove It.

Noem’s second point, about electing “the right leaders,” is harder to defend.

In normal times her remark would be treated as just urging votes for her party or her party segment. But that doesn’t work because the Trump administration considers any vote not for him and his chosen candidates to be illegitimate.

Dictator Donald reigns as the president of Red states and the punisher of Blue. He withholds Congressionally appropriated federal funds from Blue states and cities. He sends armed troops and masked ICE agents to occupy Blue zones. Trump and his cabinet constantly refer to “real Americans,” hoping to stigmatize those who stand up for freedom, integrity, and the rule of law as well as the educated and competent.

There’s no whitewashing Noem’s second part. Trump continues to lie that the 2020 election was stolen. His longtime adviser Steve Bannon said ICE agents will “surround” polling places this year. And as this MS Now report shows, Bannon is not alone in wanting ICE to intimidate voters who aren’t part of the MAGA cult.

Muddying Clear Waters

The most generous interpretation of Noem’s comments would note that she was speaking in Arizona about the proposed Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act (H.R. 22/H.R. 8281). The so-called Save America Act is Trump’s effort  to restrict voting to people who support him and limit voting by anyone who favors other candidates for office. But since her position has zip to do with elections why is she speaking on this? And why is she speaking in what defenders have to say are less than clear terms?

The answer: muddying clear waters is a Trumpian conman game, a way to convey messages without being—he thinks—accountable.

Even if you accept that lame excuse, and I don’t, you should be alarmed at Noem’s efforts to divide Americans and pit us against one another. That’s how early-stage dictatorships work, before they get to the inevitable stage of mass purging of loyalists (like Noem) to ensure struct obedience to Dear Leader.

Following the first of many loyalist purges expect mass arrests of critics and opponents, holding people incommunicado without access to the courts (already being done to those swept up by ICE). Eventually despots turn to firing squads or their murderous equivalents, to maintain their illegitimate power. Think about Putin’s agents using African frog poison to kill opposition leader Victor Navalny and the ayatollahs executing and massacring many thousands of dissident Iranians.

So long as Trump remains in power his regime intends to rig future elections. Bannon, Noem, and Trump himself make that obvious. Not acting today to protect your and everyone else’s ballots will mean paying a much greater price tomorrow, assuming that, like me, you want to restore our democracy and live in an actual land of the free and the home of the brave.

Frequently Asked Questions About This Story

What did Kristi Noem say about elections in Arizona?

She said officials were being proactive to ensure “the right people” are voting and “electing the right leaders,” a remark that critics argue signals partisan control of elections.

Does Homeland Security oversee elections?

The Department of Homeland Security does not directly administer elections, which are managed by state and local governments.

Is noncitizen voting common in U.S. elections?

Studies from organizations including the Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute show documented cases are extremely rare compared to total votes cast.

What is the SAVE Act (H.R. 22 / H.R. 8281)?

The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act proposes stricter proof-of-citizenship requirements for voter registration.

Why are critics concerned about voter intimidation?

Statements from political figures about surrounding polling places or deploying enforcement resources have raised concerns about potential voter suppression or intimidation.

Want to know the voter ID rules in your state?

Click on this Ballotpedia link.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

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Brazen Blast over Free Speech

After citizen rejection of a threatened federal prosecution, what all sides seem to accept is that the very attempt to bring criminal charges against six members of Congress for reminding the military and intelligence officers to question orders they believe illegal has been extraordinary.

The prosecution effort led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro after spurring from Donald Trump directly abridges free speech, ignores the responsibility of members of Congress to speak out, and the most obvious – that the actions by the six repeated what already is in the law and in military training codes. It is, as most informed critics say, more a reflection of a dictatorial regime than any understandable legal case.

What they do not agree on is whether the decision by a grand jury last week to reject any charges – as well as a separate judicial order halting Pentagon hounding of Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz. -– should end the matter. From all reports, Justice, which is silent on the matter, is seeking a new venue to try filing charges before a new grand jury.

Obviously, those inside the insular Donald Trump circle disagree basically with the rest of the world about whether there even is a problem here, never mind criminal charges. Trump himself had called for charges of sedition that could involve hanging for members of Congress to speak their mind in a video.

The basic tenet – that active-duty military and intelligence agents not only can, but are obliged by the law, their behavioral code and their oaths – to refuse orders they think are illegal is not at legal issue. What is at issue is that Trump does not like what these six say or the implication that Trump is issuing orders that could be considered “illegal.”

But there is a lot still to sort about the why and how of the case and the dangers it represents for a Trump presidency now fully devoted to selectively prosecuting anyone who speaks or acts in opposition, in or out of office. We have the array of cases against former FBI Director James Comey, New York Attorney General Letitia James, an investigation of Fed Board Chair Jerome Powell, and more in cases that refuse to end.

The Grand Jury Said ‘No’

Of course, the grand jurors did not appear publicly to explain the decision. What we know, from sources to news organizations, is that not one voted for indictment on a proposed felony crime that makes it illegal to “interfere with, impair, or influence the loyalty, morale, or discipline of the military or naval forces of the United States,” not the more serious sedition.

Not only is vocal Trump loyalist Pirro a political appointee, but the two prosecutors presenting the charges also were political appointees — Steven Vandervelden, a former colleague of Pirro in the district attorney’s office in New York, and Carlton Davis, a former staffer for House Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer, R-Ky. When it came time to vote, none of the grand jurors agreed there was sufficient probable cause to charge any of the lawmakers with a crime. The point is that professional prosecution staff had distanced themselves from the case.

Unusual as it is for the Justice Department to be blanked – again – by a citizen grand jury that only hears the prosecution side of a case, that rejection should end it. Apparently not so in this case, since we are told that Justice is shopping for another shot at indictment of the six.

The six include Senators Kelly, former Navy captain, aviator and astronaut, and Elise Slotkin, D-Mich., intelligence officer,  Representatives Jason Crow, former Army ranger from Colorado, Maggie Goodlander, Navy veteran from New Hampshire, Chrissy Houlahan, former Air Force officer, and Chris Deluzio, former Navy officer, both from Pennsylvania.

In Congress, many public and more private comments to journalists and one another, reflect anger and astonishment at Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi for greenlighting criminal charges against fellow legislators who are paid to speak critically of any administration. This is the same Congress that just had aired outraged criticism about former Special Counsel Jack Smith collecting data to confirm that members of Congress had been taking phone calls from Trump during the Jan. 6 insurrection attempt.

Our politics specimen jar is in full undress that Trump thinks he can point to critics and have criminal charges appear evidence-free and immediately – with very real consequences for jail time for having an opinion.

The Mark Kelly Court Case

In the related Washington case, federal Judge Richard Leon, a George W. Bush appointee, blocked the Pentagon from moving to punish Mark Kelly over the video.

“This Court has all it needs to conclude that Defendants have trampled on Senator Kelly’s First Amendment freedoms and threatened the constitutional liberties of millions of military retirees,” Leon wrote in his opinion. “After all, as Bob Dylan famously said, ‘You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.'”

War/Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had ordered a retiree pay cut for Kelly but had threatened to reactivate him to face a court martial. It is unclear whether Hegseth will walk away.

What is not addressed outside of remarks from Slotkin to television audiences is that these offices had been getting inquiries about legality of orders from active-duty troops, National Guardsmen, and intelligence officers about various tactical situations in which they increasingly are finding themselves.

Though none of the six specified any Trump orders as illegal, the follow-through “double tap” killings of surviving crewmen from drug raids in the Caribbean seem an obvious source of concern, just as the constant miscommunication and lack of operational rules of engagement for deployment to city streets in which American citizen protesters may be the enemy of the day.

Clearly, Trump, Homeland Security and the Pentagon want total, unconditional, unquestioned control of the military and paramilitary forces they are sending into these situations. The secrecy around what is told to Homeland Security’s border police about tactics that include masking and anonymized deployment with protesters and migrants alike have made clear that there are open legal issues.

Kelly, Slotkin, Crow and legal authorities all have made the same point this week: The news was not that this grand jury rejected an absurd presentation for indictment. The news is that the Trump administration insists on bringing the cases, based on political whim.


FREEDOM OF THE PRESS. FREEDOM OF SPEECH. THEY HAVE RARELY BEEN SO UNDER ATTACK IN OUR HISTORY. HELP US PROTECT THEM.

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WorkOS Pipes

My thanks to WorkOS for sponsoring DF last week. Connecting user accounts to third-party APIs always comes with the same plumbing: OAuth flows, token storage, refresh logic, and provider-specific quirks. WorkOS Pipes removes that overhead. Users connect services like GitHub, Slack, Google, Salesforce, and other supported providers through a drop-in widget. Your back end requests a valid access token from the Pipes API when needed, while Pipes handles credential storage and token refresh. That’s it.

Simplify your integrations with WorkOS Pipes.

 ★ 

Cradled in red-glowing hydrogen gas, stars are being born in Orion. Cradled in red-glowing hydrogen gas, stars are being born in Orion.