Thursday 8 January 1662/63

Up pretty early, and sent my boy to the carrier’s with some wine for my father, for to make his feast among his Brampton friends this Christmas, and my muff to my mother, sent as from my wife. But before I sent my boy out with them, I beat him for a lie he told me, at which his sister, with whom we have of late been highly displeased, and warned her to be gone, was angry, which vexed me, to see the girl I loved so well, and my wife, should at last turn so much a fool and unthankful to us.

So to the office, and there all the morning, and though without and a little against the advice of the officers did, to gratify him, send Thomas Hater to-day towards Portsmouth a day or two before the rest of the clerks, against the Pay next week.

Dined at home; and there being the famous new play acted the first time to-day, which is called “The Adventures of Five Hours,” at the Duke’s house, being, they say, made or translated by Colonel Tuke, I did long to see it; and so made my wife to get her ready, though we were forced to send for a smith, to break open her trunk, her mayde Jane being gone forth with the keys, and so we went; and though early, were forced to sit almost out of sight, at the end of one of the lower forms, so full was the house. And the play, in one word, is the best, for the variety and the most excellent continuance of the plot to the very end, that ever I saw, or think ever shall, and all possible, not only to be done in the time, but in most other respects very admittable, and without one word of ribaldry; and the house, by its frequent plaudits, did show their sufficient approbation. So home; with much ado in an hour getting a coach home, and, after writing letters at my office, I went home to supper and to bed, now resolving to set up my rest as to plays till Easter, if not Whitsuntide next, excepting plays at Court.

Read the annotations

Esther Kim Varet has a new campaign manager

Kevin Sabellico has arrived.

So, in the midst of America collapsing into a puddle of vomit, spit and Keebler Elf sweat beads, I received an e-mail from a man named Kevin Sabellico, who is Esther Kim Varet’s new campaign manager.

He said he wanted to introduce himself and chat. And, in the moment, I turned him down. Politely.

Just being honest: I’m pretty exhausted by Esther and her CA-40 run, which brings to mind 17 1/2 amphetamine-fueled blind ferrets riding a two-seated unicycle around a fog-cloaked roller coaster track (with all the signs written in Xhosa). Put different: The highs, the lows, the exclamations, the exasperation, the bragging, the condescension, the arrogance, the tone-deaf exuding of, You people don’t seem to realize how lucky you are to have me

It’s just … I dunno. Unserious. And not only do I no longer really wanna deal, but I’ve started to believe Lisa Ramirez (even with less dough, even not living within CA-40 boundaries) is the preferred candidate in what we can all agree is a longshot race for Democrats. I definitely think she’d be better at the job.

But then, bored a few hours ago, I Googled Kevin Sabellico. And while I don’t envy his task at hand, I do think Esther made a wise hire with this one. A former candidate for San Dieguito School Board, Kevin is one of those SoCal politic whiz kids (he graduated UC Santa Barbara a mere five years ago) who surely knows a million people, understands the locality of this type of election and strikes a humble, even-tempered tone.

Bro also comes with some legit campaign experience

So maybe this is what Esther needs. Someone politically wise who understands how to run a campaign and manage a candidate.

And, most important, how to chill TF out.

PS: This move, I believe, hurt Esther more than she realizes.

Politics Chat, January 8, 2026

January 7, 2026

January 7, 2026

This morning, a federal agent from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) shot and killed 37-year-old Renee Nicole Good as she was driving away from ICE agents on a residential street in Minneapolis, Minnesota. According to Minneapolis leaders, Good was a legal observer: a volunteer trained to observe police conduct in case of future legal action.

Three videos taken at the scene show a maroon SUV perpendicular on a snowy street. A silver SUV driving up the street stops. Two officers wearing badges that say “police” and body armor get out of the vehicle and walk toward the maroon car.

One of them says, “Get out of the f*cking car,” and the other reaches through the open driver’s side window while trying to open the door. The driver backs up the vehicle, and straightens the wheel as if making a three-point turn. Then she starts slowly to accelerate along the street.

A third officer who has been standing on the side of the road pulls out a gun as the car is turning away. He shoots three times. The maroon car does not hit anyone as it rolls up the street, hitting another vehicle and then a utility pole. The shooter walks briskly away, apparently uninjured.

Seen in slow motion, a video shows the wheels of the maroon vehicle were fully turned away from the shooting officer, who made no effort to jump away, clearly suggesting he did not feel as if he were in danger. His first shot went through the windshield; the next two went through the driver’s side window as the car moved past him. An onlooker shouted “What the f*ck?!”

Video taken by another eyewitness shows ICE agents refusing to allow a self-identified physician to tend to the victim and telling him to back up. Although there is no one tending the clearly visible woman in the car, an agent says: “We have medics on scene. We have our own medics.” When another bystander screams: “Where are they? WHERE ARE THEY?!” an agent tells her, “Relax.” “How can I relax?” she shouts. “You just killed my f*cking neighbor.”

Yesterday the Trump administration deployed federal agents and officers to Minneapolis for what they called the largest federal immigration operation ever carried out, eventually planning to deploy 2,000 agents. The administration has been attacking Minnesota’s Somali community, and Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem was present at an ICE arrest yesterday, telling a man in handcuffs, who Homeland Security later said was from Ecuador, “You will be held accountable for your crimes.”

Rebecca Santana and Michael Balsamo of the Associated Press reported that Minnesota governor Tim Walz called the deployment “a war that’s being waged against Minnesota.” “You’re seeing that we have a ridiculous surge of apparently 2,000 people not coordinating with us, that are for a show of cameras,” he said.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) insists that its actions are protecting American citizens from “the worst of the worst” criminal immigrants, so the shooting of a young white woman, the mother of a young child, and how that would look, made it appear eager to smear Good.

It immediately put out a statement that looked much like what it said after officers shot 30-year-old Chicago teaching assistant Marimar Martinez in October when it claimed she had “ambushed” agents, ramming their vehicle before an agent shot her five times. Footage showed that, in fact, the agents had rammed her car, and after the shooting one had sent a text message bragging: “I fired 5 rounds and she had 7 holes. Put that in your book boys.” The Department of Justice dropped the charges it had filed against her, asking a judge to “dismiss the indictment and exonerate” Martinez and her passenger.

Today, DHS posted on social media that “ICE officers in Minneapolis were conducting targeted operations when rioters began blocking ICE officers and one of these violent rioters weaponized her vehicle, attempting to run over our law enforcement officers in an attempt to kill them—an act of domestic terrorism. An ICE officer, fearing for his life, the lives of his fellow law enforcement and the safety of the public, fired defensive shots. He used his training and saved his own life and that of his fellow officers. The alleged perpetrator was hit and is deceased. The ICE officers who were hurt are expected to make full recoveries. This is the direct consequence of constant attacks and demonization of our officers by sanctuary politicians who fuel and encourage rampant assaults on our law enforcement who are facing 1,300% increase in assaults against them and an 8,000% increase in death threats.”

Trump jumped in with his own fact-free post lying that the shooter had been run over: “I have just viewed the clip of the event which took place in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It is a horrible thing to watch. The woman screaming was, obviously, a professional agitator, and the woman driving the car was very disorderly, obstructing and resisting, who then violently, willfully, and viciously ran over the ICE Officer, who seems to have shot at her in self defense. Based on the attached clip, it is hard to believe that he is alive, but is now recovering in the hospital. The situation is being studied, in its entirety, but the reason these incidents are happening is because the Radical Left is threatening, assaulting, and targeting our Law Enforcement Officers and ICE Agents on a daily basis. They are just trying to do the job of MAKING AMERICA SAFE. We need to stand by and protect our Law Enforcement Officers from this Radical Left Movement of Violence and Hate! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

That both DHS and Trump posted false accounts of the shooting even as there are four videos circulating that reveal those accounts to be lies shows they no longer are making any attempt to justify their actions. Instead, they are demanding Americans abandon reality in favor of whatever the administration says. If this works, it would be a demonstration of totalitarian power, the ability to control how people think. Accepting that lie is a loyalty test.

But it is not working.

First of all, Sarah Jeong of The Verge noted that the reason there are so many videos is because “people cared enough to show up where ICE was and record them. It wasn’t just one or two legal observers, and when Good was shot, they didn’t abandon her.”

Second, elected Democrats are pushing back. “I’ve seen the video,” Governor Walz wrote. “Don’t believe this propaganda machine. The state will ensure there is a full, fair, and expeditious investigation to ensure accountability and justice.” To reporters, he said: “We’ve been warning for weeks that the Trump administration’s dangerous, sensationalized operations are a threat to our public safety, that someone was going to get hurt. Just yesterday I said exactly that. What we’re seeing is the consequences of governance designed to generate fear, headlines, and conflict. It’s governing by reality TV and today that recklessness cost someone their life. I’ve reached out to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and I’m waiting to hear back.”

He told Minnesotans that, like them, he was angry, but “they want a show. We can’t give it to them. We cannot. If you protest and express your First Amendment rights, please do so peacefully as you always do. We can’t give them what they want…. To Americans, I ask you this. Please stand with Minneapolis.”

Walz prepared to call out the Minnesota National Guard if necessary, demonstrating that there would be no need for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act and send in troops. He reminded Minnesotans that the Minnesota National Guard does not wear masks and that it is theirs, not Trump’s.

Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey told reporters that the DHS statement was “bullsh*t. This was an agent recklessly using power that resulted in somebody dying, getting killed.” “To the family, I’m so deeply sorry,” Frey said. “There’s nothing that I can say right now that’s going to make you or your relatives, friends of the victim feel any better.” To ICE and other federal agents deployed in Minnesota, he added: “Get the f*ck out of Minneapolis. We do not want you here. Your stated reason for being in this city is to create some kind of safety, and you are doing exactly the opposite. People are being hurt. Families are being ripped apart…and now somebody is dead.”

But something else was also going on today. At the same time the administration was pouring gasoline on the domestic fire ICE had sparked and the international fire it had set with its attacks on Venezuela and threats against Greenland, it was quietly making a number of major financial moves.

The smallest of those moves was that today Trump asked Fulton County, Georgia, for a $6.2 million payout in attorneys’ fees and costs after the criminal charges against him in Georgia were dismissed. Trump had been indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election in Georgia by pressuring Georgia secretary of state Brad Raffensberger to “find” 11,780 votes to give him a victory in the state of Georgia. In November 2025 a new special prosecutor dropped the charges, citing the difficulty of prosecuting a case against a sitting president. Trump boasted on social media of his victory over an “illegal, unconstitutional, and unAmerican hoax,” and continued to push the lie that Democrats stole the election.

Vicky Ge Huang of the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump family’s cryptocurrency venture World Liberty Financial today applied for a national banking license from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, part of the Treasury Department. A banking license would integrate the Trump family’s cryptocurrency more fully into mainstream finance.

If the Treasury Department issues the license—a potential outcome that critics say reveals a major conflict of interest for the president—the president and chair of the new company would be Zach Witkoff, whose father is Trump’s envoy to Russia Steve Witkoff, who the Wall Street Journal recently reported had been handpicked for his role by Russian president Vladimir Putin. The younger Witkoff started World Liberty Financial in 2024 with Trump’s sons Don Jr., Eric, and Barron.

Today, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told an audience at a Goldman Sachs energy industry event in Miami, Florida, that the United States will take control of all oil from Venezuela for the foreseeable future. Lisa Desjardins and Nick Schifrin of PBS NewsHour reported this afternoon that Trump administration officials have told lawmakers that they plan to put the money raised from their seizure of Venezuelan oil into bank accounts outside the U.S. Treasury. Desjardins clarified that “[s]ources said they understood these as similar [to] or decidedly ‘off-shore’ accounts.”

Yesterday, Trump announced that, as president of the United States, he would control the money from the sale of Venezuelan oil.

And then, this afternoon, Trump’s social media account first threatened the defense contractor Raytheon, saying that “[e]ither Raytheon steps up, and starts investing in more upfront Investment like Plants and Equipment, or they will no longer be doing business with Department of War.”

Then, the same account posted: “After long and difficult negotiations with Senators, Congressmen, Secretaries, and other Political Representatives, I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars. This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe. If it weren’t for the tremendous numbers being produced by Tariffs from other Countries, many of which, in the past, have ‘ripped off’ the United States at levels never seen before, I would stay at the $1 Trillion Dollar number but, because of Tariffs, and the tremendous income they bring, amounts being generated, that would have been unthinkable in the past (especially just one year ago during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, the Worst President in the History of our Country!), we are able to easily hit the $1.5 Trillion Dollar number while, at the same time, producing an unparalleled Military Force, and having the ability to, at the same time, pay down Debt, and likewise, pay a substantial Dividend to moderate income Patriots within our Country!”

Simon Rosenberg of The Hopium Chronicles wrote: “Trump has gone completely mad.”

Notes:

https://www.404media.co/dhs-is-lying-to-you-about-ice-shooting-a-woman/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/01/07/trump-oil-venezuela-subsidies/

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/fact-check-trumps-georgia-call-raffensperger

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/final-criminal-case-against-trump-dismissed-after-georgia-prosecutor-drops-charges

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-georgia-election-interference-case-dropped-rcna246069

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/2000-federal-agents-sent-to-minneapolis-area-to-carry-out-largest-immigration-operation-ever-ice-says

https://www.startribune.com/ice-raids-minnesota/601546426

https://www.thetrace.org/2025/12/immigration-ice-shootings-guns-tracker/

https://abc7chicago.com/post/department-justice-drops-charges-marimar-martinez-anthony-ruiz-accused-ramming-customs-border-protection-car/18180857/

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/live-updates/minneapolis-federal-agents-protesters-clash-portland-avenue/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/minneapolis-mayor-jacob-frey-ice-shooting/

https://time.com/7344506/minneapolis-ice-shooting-mayor/

https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-witkoff-russia-envoy-04da229d

https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/world-liberty-flagship-in-trumps-crypto-fleet-seeks-a-u-s-banking-license-72cca502

X:

ScarboroughNow/status/2009005303841632288

donwinslow/status/2008994726306066485

DebunkTheRight/status/2008999900189741490

LisaDNews/status/2008998959235407904

DHSgov/status/2008958123092979817

GovTimWalz/status/2008980259199394021

Bluesky:

jessicaschulberg.bsky.social/post/3mbuggqgmzk2n

annabower.bsky.social/post/3mbuhkmyvqk25

editorialboard.bsky.social/post/3mbuifr7si22k

thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3mbufwmbpz22t

chrismurphyct.bsky.social/post/3mbulflrulk2m

bellingcat.com/post/3mbujjukc5c23

simonwdc.bsky.social/post/3mbufz6tl3227

atrupar.com/post/3mbueot7ivc2o

adamparkhomenko.bsky.social/post/3mbudpq5crc2o

sarahjeong.bsky.social/post/3mbuphwhmxc2d

profile/atrupar.com/post/3mbucpozvrs2e

ivanthek.bsky.social/post/3mbug2ncad62q

chrisgeidner.bsky.social/post/3mbsd2onn6s2t

Share

Friday: Employment Report, Housing Starts, Flow of Funds

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET,: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%.

• At 10:00 AM: Housing Starts for September and October.

• At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January)

• At 12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

Its popular nickname is the Spaghetti Nebula. Its popular nickname is the Spaghetti Nebula.


My Microsoft podcast on AI

Here is the link, here is part of their description:

Economist and public thinker Tyler Cowen joins host Molly Wood to explore why AI adoption is so challenging for many employees, organizations, and educational institutions. As he puts it,”This may sound counterintuitive, but under a lot of scenarios, the more unhappy people are, the better we’re doing, because that means a lot of change.”

In passing I will point out that the AI pessimism that started around 2023, with the release of GPT-4, is looking worse and worse.  I am not talking about “the end of the world” views, rather “the stochastic parrot” critiques and the like.  Dustbin of history, etc.

The post My Microsoft podcast on AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

December Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%.

From Goldman Sachs:
We forecast that payrolls rose 70k (vs. 55k consensus) in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% (vs. 4.5% consensus). ... We expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 4.5% because the increase to 4.6% in November largely reflected the impact of furloughed federal government workers during the shutdown.
emphasis added
From BofA:
Dec NFP are likely to tick up to a stable 70k (private: 75k) print, higher than consensus expectations. Initial claims remain low and continuing claims have trended lower since Oct. Education & health jobs should remain the driver of payroll growth. Given the strength in air travel and holiday spending, we project a rise in leisure & hospitality jobs. After the u-rate jumping to 4.6% in Nov, in part due to shutdown-related distortions, we expect a decline to 4.5%. It is likely that the worst is behind us in the labor market.
ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 41,000 private sector jobs were added in December.  This was slightly below consensus forecasts.  However, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report.

ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased to 44.9%, up from 44.0% the previous month. This suggests manufacturing jobs lost in December. The ADP report indicated 5,000 manufacturing jobs lost in December.

The ISM® services employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%.  This suggests job gains in December.  

Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed about the same number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 224,000 in December compared to 222,000 in November.  This suggests about the same number of layoffs in December as in November.

Conclusion: Over the last 6 months, employment gains averaged 17 thousand per month.  The ADP report, the ISM Surveys, and unemployment claims suggest similar gains in December compared to November.   I'll take the over for December - but still weak hiring.

A data model for Git (and other docs updates)

Hello! This past fall, I decided to take some time to work on Git’s documentation. I’ve been thinking about working on open source docs for a long time – usually if I think the documentation for something could be improved, I’ll write a blog post or a zine or something. But this time I wondered: could I instead make a few improvements to the official documentation?

So Marie and I made a few changes to the Git documentation!

a data model for Git

After a while working on the documentation, we noticed that Git uses the terms “object”, “reference”, or “index” in its documentation a lot, but that it didn’t have a great explanation of what those terms mean or how they relate to other core concepts like “commit” and “branch”. So we wrote a new “data model” document!

You can read the data model here for now. I assume at some point (after the next release?) it’ll also be on the Git website.

I’m excited about this because understanding how Git organizes its commit and branch data has really helped me reason about how Git works over the years, and I think it’s important to have a short (1600 words!) version of the data model that’s accurate.

The “accurate” part turned out to not be that easy: I knew the basics of how Git’s data model worked, but during the review process I learned some new details and had to make quite a few changes (for example how merge conflicts are stored in the staging area).

updates to git push, git pull, and more

I also worked on updating the introduction to some of Git’s core man pages. I quickly realized that “just try to improve it according to my best judgement” was not going to work: why should the maintainers believe me that my version is better?

I’ve seen a problem a lot when discussing open source documentation changes where 2 expert users of the software argue about whether an explanation is clear or not (“I think X would be a good way to explain it! Well, I think Y would be better!”)

I don’t think this is very productive (expert users of a piece of software are notoriously bad at being able to tell if an explanation will be clear to non-experts), so I needed to find a way to identify problems with the man pages that was a little more evidence-based.

getting test readers to identify problems

I asked for test readers on Mastodon to read the current version of documentation and tell me what they find confusing or what questions they have. About 80 test readers left comments, and I learned so much!

People left a huge amount of great feedback, for example:

  • terminology they didn’t understand (what’s a pathspec? what does “reference” mean? does “upstream” have a specific meaning in Git?)
  • specific confusing sentences
  • suggestions of things things to add (“I do X all the time, I think it should be included here”)
  • inconsistencies (“here it implies X is the default, but elsewhere it implies Y is the default”)

Most of the test readers had been using Git for at least 5-10 years, which I think worked well – if a group of test readers who have been using Git regularly for 5+ years find a sentence or term impossible to understand, it makes it easy to argue that the documentation should be updated to make it clearer.

I thought this “get users of the software to comment on the existing documentation and then fix the problems they find” pattern worked really well and I’m excited about potentially trying it again in the future.

the man page changes

We ended updating these 4 man pages:

The git push and git pull changes were the most interesting to me: in addition to updating the intro to those pages, we also ended up writing:

Making those changes really gave me an appreciation for how much work it is to maintain open source documentation: it’s not easy to write things that are both clear and true, and sometimes we had to make compromises, for example the sentence “git push may fail if you haven’t set an upstream for the current branch, depending on what push.default is set to.” is a little vague, but the exact details of what “depending” means are really complicated and untangling that is a big project.

on the process for contributing to Git

It took me a while to understand Git’s development process. I’m not going to try to describe it here (that could be a whole other post!), but a few quick notes:

  • Git has a Discord server with a “my first contribution” channel for help with getting started contributing. I found people to be very welcoming on the Discord.
  • I used GitGitGadget to make all of my contributions. This meant that I could make a GitHub pull request (a workflow I’m comfortable with) and GitGitGadget would convert my PRs into the system the Git developers use (emails with patches attached). GitGitGadget worked great and I was very grateful to not have to learn how to send patches by email with Git.
  • Otherwise I used my normal email client (Fastmail’s web interface) to reply to emails, wrapping my text to 80 character lines since that’s the mailing list norm.

I also found the mailing list archives on lore.kernel.org hard to navigate, so I hacked together my own git list viewer to make it easier to read the long mailing list threads.

Many people helped me navigate the contribution process and review the changes: thanks to Emily Shaffer, Johannes Schindelin (the author of GitGitGadget), Patrick Steinhardt, Ben Knoble, Junio Hamano, and more.

(I’m experimenting with comments on Mastodon, you can see the comments here)

📙 #078 - Making Brushstrokes

When I was a kid there was a TV program called “The Adventure Game”, each episode (from series 2 onwards) ended with The Vortex.

The game was played on a triangle/hex lattice (3-4-3-4-3-4-3), with the celebrity player, often a children’s tv presenter, at one side and the “vortex” at the other, which was invisible to the player. They’d take it in turns to move, and if they player moved into the vortex’s space they were eliminated.

Obviously with the vortex being invisible this was somewhat a game of chance, but it did allow me to divide tv celebrities into those who were cool, and those who clearly didn’t fucking understand game theory, probability, and optimising a statistically correct strategy.

No Keith No! Don’t move to that spot on the very edge, now you’ve limited the number of viable next moves and reduced your chances of winning. Oh God, he’s moved backwards, the twat!

And that’s how Keith Chegwin got sucked off by the vortex! This would never have happened to Maggie Philbin*.

I was 9 at the time, and not yet diagnosed with autism, but the signs were there.


# MAKING COHERENT BRUSH STROKES

I’ve been plotting my postcards for the #ptpx2025 Pen Plotter Postcard Exchange, with (sometimes) fancy ink, brush pens and the ArtFrame drawing machine, which allows me to control the height of the brush using the magic of GCODE.

I wanted to share a little of the behind the scenes on this one ‘cause I think it’s fun. Here’s an image to get started, it’s my own mini version of the Vortex!

The “game” is to generate nice sweeping brushstrokes that start at the top of the page/design and swoosh their way generally down. So here are the rules…

  • Randomly start at either position 0, 1, or 2.

  • Each “turn” you have a 10% chance of moving up, 20% chance of moving sideways and 70% chance of moving down. If you can’t move up, roll again. If there’s more than one option to move sideways or move down, flip a coin to see which way you go.

  • When you reach the bottom, take one more turn then end the “game”.

  • If there’s less than 8 points in the final path, throw it away and start over.

This gives us a “random walk” that always starts at the top, and will eventually make it’s way to the bottom. Because they’re all based on the same underlying lattice/substrate they’ll be consistent.

Next stage, throw in a pendulum.

Ignore the complicated one on the right for the moment.

Imagine a single point at the top of the page, and attach a pendulum that swings back and forth (and attach a pen to that pendulum). The pen would swoosh back and forth drawing an arc over and over until it rips through the paper (bad).

Imagine a second point near the bottom of the page, and now let the pendulum’s pivot point slowly move from the top to the bottom, while swinging back and forth. You’d end up with back and forth swooshes going down the page (better, but boring).

Now, much harder to imagine, but thankfully pretty easy to code, a pendulum that swings back and forth, as the pivot point it’s attached to slowly moves along the path we created.

Here’s the complicated one from above, with all the points along the path. BUT, an added rule; as the brush/line moves downwards the line gets thicker (and on the drawing machine we move the brush closer to the paper), and as we move upwards the line gets thinner (we move the brush away from the paper).

You’ll probably have noticed there’s actually two lines 🤔

This is because I want the main black line, and then a “sympathetic” supporting coloured line. The two lines are created by starting two pendulums at slightly different angles & swinging at slightly different speeds.

They’ll slowly move out of sync as it moves towards the end of the design, but because they follow the same path they’ll be in roughly the same area (as opposed to both lines doing their own thing).


# INK

I need to get Kitty to write on some of these and then get them into the post. I have, of course, plotted far too many so I’m going to be sending extra ones out over the next few months, and Patreon.


# THE END

For lots of my friend 2026 has started as terribly as 2025 finished. So let’s just go with fuck you 2025 and fuck you 2026 too while we’re at it, may as well get it in now. I hope your holiday time and new year was okay, but sending my love if it wasn’t, fwiw.

I’m spinning things back up here & getting back into my stride, with the next Drawing Machines 101 video going out soon. Certainly sooner than the next newsletter which’ll be with you on Thursday, 22nd of January.

Love you all,
Dan
🧡


* Because Maggie Philbin was in series one, and the vortex wasn’t introduced until series two.

Thursday assorted links

1. Advancements in self-driving cars.

2. Infosys partners with Cognition.  Rolling out Devin.  Significant.

3. ChatGPT Health is launched.

4. The Final Offshoring?

5. Excellent year in review from Sebastian Garren.

6. AI begins prescribing medications in Utah.

7. “Breaking: JPMorgan is cutting all ties with proxy advisory firms and replacing them with AI to help cast shareholder votes

You’ve got Sebastian’s excellent letter, and then a whole bunch of okie-dokie for the day.

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

This University Built an Honors College — and Then Destroyed It

Welcome back to The Honest Broker interview series —also available on our new YouTube channel. You can also find it on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

Today, I’m sharing my conversation with Jennifer Frey.


Please support The Honest Broker by taking out a premium subscription (just $6 per month).

Subscribe now


Jennifer is a Professor of Philosophy at the University of Tulsa. She is also a faculty fellow at the Institute for Human Ecology at the Catholic University of America. She earned her PhD in Philosophy from the University of Pittsburgh in 2012.

She’s also a fierce proponent of liberal education. She brought that passion with her to the University of Tulsa, where she built a new honors college and served as the inaugural dean — until, after just two years, the administration cut its funding by 92%. When that happened, Jennifer responded in the New York Times, offering an ardent defense of the value of liberal education.

In that piece, she wrote:

When students realize their own humanity is at stake in their education, they are deeply invested in it. The problem with liberal education in today’s academy does not lie with our students. The real threat to liberal learning is from an administrative class that is content to offer students far less than their own humanity calls for—and deserves.

I knew I wanted to talk to Jennifer about these issues. She joined me here in Austin to discuss the story of Tulsa’s honors college, the many problems facing higher education in the United States, and the value of helping students craft intellectual friendships.

Below are highlights from the interview. For the rest of our conversation, check out the video at the top of the page.

Jennifer’s family recently experienced a serious medical event, and her husband Chris had to be hospitalized. There is a donation page for her family as Chris recovers.

Highlights from the Jennifer Frey Interview

Jared: Jennifer Frey, thank you for joining me.

Jennifer: Thanks for having me.

Jared: Why don’t we start by just telling everybody the story of what happened at the University of Tulsa?

Jennifer: I’m a philosopher, and prior to moving to Tulsa, I was at the University of South Carolina. In 2020, we were all on Twitter a lot, and I post a lot about higher ed. One day I posted about the University of Tulsa and how terrible it was because they had eliminated their philosophy department, which is happening at a lot of places, and there was an acceleration during COVID. You actually don’t need to have a financial calamity to just want to murder philosophy. You simply need to not value it.

I checked my replies, and I got a reply from the president of the University of Tulsa that said, ‘Hey, Jen, we’re not that bad. You should come visit us.’ He followed up and said, ‘I probably agree with a lot of your criticisms. I’d love for you to come out.’ In November of 2021, I went to the University of Tulsa, and I gave a talk in which I criticized the university, but I also talked about why philosophy should always be at the center of a university. That was the first time in my life I got a standing ovation for a talk.

It turns out the president had an ulterior motive. He wanted to start an honors college, which he said would be like a mini St. John’s College. Great books, liberal education.

“We grew enrollment by 500%, and we were bringing 26% to 27% of freshman into honors….We were bringing in money, grants, and donors. Then it all ended.”

Jared: For many people, building something like that is a dream.

Jennifer: Yes. I was like, ‘Oh, that’s interesting. You should do that.’ Then he asked me to come lead it. I said no, but he was very persistent. Eventually, we agreed that I would help him build a college on paper. We worked together for about a year, and at the end of the year, I kind of fancied what I had come up with. Then he said, ‘I still need someone to run this college.’ I interviewed, and I was hired and decided to move the whole family halfway across the country to Oklahoma to start this new college.

The transition to administration, and away from an intellectual life to a very practical life, was very difficult, but it was incredibly rewarding. But to make a long story short, it was really successful. We grew enrollment by 500%, and we were bringing 26% to 27% of freshman into honors.

Jared: Were these students who probably wouldn’t have applied to the university if it weren’t for the honors college?

Jennifer: I think some of them, yes. They had to do a separate application for honors, and we’re very clear that it is a lot of effort. I was always impressed by how many young people wanted to do this, because it’s reading thousands of pages of difficult books every semester for two years. We built a residential college, and they were living together in a community, with all kinds of activities. We were bringing in money, grants, and donors. Then it all ended just about as quickly as you might imagine.

Jared: Before we go into exactly how it ended, let’s talk a little bit about what the curriculum was like.

Jennifer: We built it to be collaborative with the faculty who are teaching it. The most controversial thing was that it was a set curriculum. Everyone is going to teach the same syllabus. And that was for the simple reason that I wanted to build community. It was four semesters of great books from Homer to Hannah Arendt.

The first semester of freshman year, it was Three Ancient Cities: Athens, Rome, and Jerusalem. You’re reading texts that would be considered sacred. You’re reading epic poems. You’re reading philosophy. You’re reading tragedy. You’re reading history. Then the second semester is the Long Middle Ages, emphasis on long. We read Augustine’s Confessions, Boethius’ Consolation of Philosophy, the Divine Comedy — and we read all of it, because if you just read Inferno you’re not going to understand what he was up to. We also read St. Benedict’s Rule, because medieval monasticism is so important.

Jared: If they’re reading Benedict’s Rule, they’re also going to get something like lectio divina. They’re going to get some kind of an idea of close reading that’s not deconstructive reading.

Jennifer: In your first year, you’ve gone from Homer to Calvin. That’s a huge range of time. And I want to stress that these are seminars. There are no lectures or secondary sources.

In your sophomore year, it’s the Birth of Modernity. That’s basically Machiavelli to Mary Shelley. You get Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Kant, Marx. We read Don Quixote, which is a lot, but also very fun.

Jared: This is probably where students are likely recognizing names more. Maybe they recognize some names early on in the Greek stuff.

Jennifer: But I’m not expecting incoming freshman to be conversant yet. Then in the last class, it is just the 19th and 20th century. That starts with de Tocqueville. Then we get to Hannah Arendt, and then every instructor gets a free text so they can end wherever they want.

Jared: What semester do you think the students enjoyed the most?

Jennifer: I didn’t run a survey, but I would put a lot of money on Three Ancient Cities being the most popular class.

Jared: So the students would do this for two years and then finish their studies in the broader University of Tulsa.

Jennifer: Yes. Our idea was that what we really needed to fix in higher education is general education. When you go to university, you have general education requirements. And the way that it functions in most universities is like a big cafeteria or buffet. Somebody hands you 10 categories, and they’re like ‘You need a green vegetable, you need three proteins, you need dairy.’ And students kind of look and see what’s left over or what looks good. That’s your general education. It’s incoherent. It’s mostly a matter of luck.

It used to be obvious to everyone that general education should be liberal, right? It’s not yoked to expertise or any sort of output. It’s a kind of formation, and it was thought that you needed a certain kind of liberal formation. Small ‘l’ liberal, not political or partisan.

Jared: I’m ashamed of this fact, but I managed to get a PhD in philosophy without reading The Republic.

Jennifer: It wasn’t your fault.

Jared: I took the history classes that were available. I checked the boxes. Then I went to grad school, and they assume that you’ve read Kant, The Republic, things like that.

Jennifer: Where did you go?

Jared: The University of Connecticut.

Jennifer: Did they even hope you’d read it? Did they care? Honest question.

Jared: One or two people there probably cared.

Jennifer: Were they Pitt people?

Jared: They were. Do you know Lionel Shapiro?

Jennifer: Of course.

Jared: Lionel cared.

Jennifer: What a good man. He’s from the old days of Pitt where it was like ‘You’re going to know your stuff.’

Jared: His history of philosophy seminars were notorious for the sheer intensity you had to bring to them.

Jennifer: Because he had experienced it!

Jared: My speculation is that new graduate students are coming in and have already started specializing. They’re pre-specialized. I started specializing as soon as I could.

Jennifer: I could go on a really long, angry tirade about how much I’m opposed to that. But back to the general point about higher education. Honors colleges are uniquely American. They function as a way for a very bright student to do their general education with honors classes. I sort of saw this as an opportunity to provide a general education that was truly liberal. My hope was that we could prove this is popular, that students want it, and that it works.

You just want to really kind of develop what Aristotle would call intellectual virtues. And you want to do it for the sake of human excellence, human flourishing.

Jared: So what happened?

Jennifer: I got fired. The president who courted me left, and then the provost did too. A new provost comes in, and the first thing she did was get rid of honors. They cut the budget by, I think, 92%. Almost everyone I hired was gone. We were pretty disruptive of the status quo, and I think maybe that wasn’t appreciated by everyone.

Jared: There’s this story that we tell about higher education: student’s don’t want to read, students aren’t interested, the kinds of things you’re offering doesn’t speak to students’ experiences, interests, or needs. I don’t think that’s a narrative you buy.

Jennifer: No, it makes me so angry. It feels patronizing to students. It’s also just false, and it’s a great way to excuse oneself from doing your job. And I think that everyone needs to ask themselves to what extent is student disengagement a reflection of problems in class or the university that need to be addressed? Maybe we can’t teach in the same way we’ve been teaching. I don’t think that the traditional lecture is the best mode of doing philosophy. Philosophy is dialectic.

Jared: When I was still in the classroom, even if I had a class of only 30 for an introductory class, my goal was to see how quickly I could get them talking to each other. As soon as they do that, and they see that there is a real disagreement, that what one person thinks is obvious another thinks is absurd…suddenly, they’re doing philosophy.

Jennifer: I learned pretty early on that if you start out lecturing at students, it’s disruptive to expect them to talk. So, I just decided to flip that. I would start every class by asking questions. That totally reorients them.

I think that one thing that was so important about the honors seminar is that it was a conversation. It was conversation sustained over an hour and some change. There’s a lot of formation going on in conversation. Wisdom requires the cultivation of certain virtues, and the best context in which to pursue both of those things is intellectual friendship. The students were friends, and they were friends who did not agree.

Jared: What is honors at Tulsa like now?

Jennifer: You’d have to ask the students. I’m on sabbatical, and I’m not teaching honors.

Jared: Were there any texts that you had in your curriculum that students hated?

Jennifer: What a great question. There were some texts that didn’t land as well as others. Some of the history texts were like that. A lot people did not like the Federalist Papers. Some people really didn’t like Sappho. Everybody loves Homer.

Jared: With many of these texts, they are so much weirder than you expect them to be.

Jennifer: The students are always surprised by how how naughty medieval literature is. They were like, ‘Oh, wow, there’s a lot of adultery in this.’

Jared: I want to ask you for a book recommendation for our audience. We’re looking for books that you think everybody should read. Do you have something for us?

Jennifer: People should read a book by Zena Hitz called Lost in Thought. It’s very much related to the things that we’ve been talking about. Zena is a tutor at St. John’s, a philosopher, and a friend of the perennial philosophy. It’s a beautiful book. It’s part memoir, part defense of the liberality of liberal learning. She really leans into the idea that seeking knowledge for its own sake is deeply, deeply connected to human flourishing. And she does it by showing it.

Jared: Jennifer Frey, thank you for joining us.

Jennifer: Thank you.



*Resurrection*

That is the new Chinese movie, noting that the original title translates better as “Feral/Wild Age,” and you can think of it as a retelling of the history of the 20th century, from a Straussian Chinese point of view.  Are parts also a retelling of the Buddha story, but what if a Buddha came to earth in contemporary times?  Toss in “Chinese Ghost Story” and some vampires, and you have a pretty strange mix.  Here is a good critical overview, including an interview with the director Bi Gan.

Scott Sumner noted he may well end up considering this to be his favorite movie of the decade.  Visually, it is one of the most interesting movies of the last twenty-five years.  Also, the attentive viewer will catch visual references to Dreyer, Uncle Boonmee, Stalker, Enter the Dragon, Rashomon, David Lynch, Matt Barney, and much more.  Resurrection is also a homage to cinema, and to the passing of cinema, I would say.

As for the plot, I still am not sure.  Perhaps it demands repeat viewings?  I do not feel it is a spoiler to tell you there is one character taking five different guises.  In any case, this is a major work of creative art and I am very glad I saw it.  Large screen is mandatory of course.

The post *Resurrection* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased Slightly in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year

From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 Trends
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to December 2024. The December index is up 0.1% month over month.
emphasis added
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in December (seasonally adjusted) and were up 0.4% YoY.

AI & Humans: Making the Relationship Work

Leaders of many organizations are urging their teams to adopt agentic AI to improve efficiency, but are finding it hard to achieve any benefit. Managers attempting to add AI agents to existing human teams may find that bots fail to faithfully follow their instructions, return pointless or obvious results or burn precious time and resources spinning on tasks that older, simpler systems could have accomplished just as well.

The technical innovators getting the most out of AI are finding that the technology can be remarkably human in its behavior. And the more groups of AI agents are given tasks that require cooperation and collaboration, the more those human-like dynamics emerge.

Our research suggests that, because of how directly they seem to apply to hybrid teams of human and digital workers, the most effective leaders in the coming years may still be those who excel at understanding the timeworn principles of human management.

We have spent years studying the risks and opportunities for organizations adopting AI. Our 2025 book, Rewiring Democracy, examines lessons from AI adoption in government institutions and civil society worldwide. In it, we identify where the technology has made the biggest impact and where it fails to make a difference. Today, we see many of the organizations we’ve studied taking another shot at AI adoption—this time, with agentic tools. While generative AI generates, agentic AI acts and achieves goals such as automating supply chain processes, making data-driven investment decisions or managing complex project workflows. The cutting edge of AI development research is starting to reveal what works best in this new paradigm.

Understanding Agentic AI

There are four key areas where AI should reliably boast superhuman performance: in speed, scale, scope and sophistication. Again and again, the most impactful AI applications leverage their capabilities in one or more of these areas. Think of content-moderation AI that can scan thousands of posts in an instant, legislative policy tools that can scale deliberations to millions of constituents, and protein-folding AI that can model molecular interactions with greater sophistication than any biophysicist.

Equally, AI applications that don’t leverage these core capabilities typically fail to impress. For example, Google’s AI Overviews irritate many of its users when the overviews obscure information that could be more efficiently consumed straight from the web results that the AI attempted to synthesize.

Agentic AI extends these core advantages of AI to new tasks and scenarios. The most familiar AI tools are chatbots, image generators and other models that take a single action: ask one question, get one answer. Agentic systems solve more complex problems by using many such AI models and giving each one the capability to use tools like retrieving information from databases and perform tasks like sending emails or executing financial transactions.

Because agentic systems are so new and their potential configurations so vast, we are still learning which business processes they will fit well with and which they will not. Gartner has estimated that 40 per cent of agentic AI projects will be cancelled within two years, largely because they are targeted where they can’t achieve meaningful business impact.

Understanding Agentic AI behavior

To understand the collective behaviors of agentic AI systems, we need to examine the individual AIs that comprise them. When AIs make mistakes or make things up, they can behave in ways that are truly bizarre. But when they work well, the reasons why are sometimes surprisingly relatable.

Tools like ChatGPT drew attention by sounding human. Moreover, individual AIs often behave like individual people, responding to incentives and organizing their own work in much the same ways that humans do. Recall the counterintuitive findings of many early users of ChatGPT and similar large language models (LLMs) in 2022: They seemed to perform better when offered a cash tip, told the answer was really important or were threatened with hypothetical punishments.

One of the most effective and enduring techniques discovered in those early days of LLM testing was ‘chain-of-thought prompting,’ which instructed AIs to think through and explain each step of their analysis—much like a teacher forcing a student to show their work. Individual AIs can also react to new information similar to individual people. Researchers have found that LLMs can be effective at simulating the opinions of individual people or demographic groups on diverse topics, including consumer preferences and politics.

As agentic AI develops, we are finding that groups of AIs also exhibit human-like behaviors collectively. A 2025 paper found that communities of thousands of AI agents set to chat with each other developed familiar human social behaviors like settling into echo chambers. Other researchers have observed the emergence of cooperative and competitive strategies and the development of distinct behavioral roles when setting groups of AIs to play a game together.

The fact that groups of agentic AIs are working more like human teams doesn’t necessarily indicate that machines have inherently human-like characteristics. It may be more nurture than nature: AIs are being designed with inspiration from humans. The breakthrough triumph of ChatGPT was widely attributed to using human feedback during training. Since then, AI developers have gotten better at aligning AI models to human expectations. It stands to reason, then, that we may find similarities between the management techniques that work for human workers and for agentic AI.

Lessons From the Frontier

So, how best to manage hybrid teams of humans and agentic AIs? Lessons can be gleaned from leading AI labs. In a recent research report, Anthropic shared the practical roadmap and published lessons learned while building its Claude Research feature, which uses teams of multiple AI agents to accomplish complex reasoning tasks. For example, using agents to search the web for information and calling external tools to access information from sources like emails and documents.

Advancements in agentic AI enabling new offerings like Claude Research and Amazon Q are causing a stir among AI practitioners because they reveal insights from the frontlines of AI research about how to make agentic AI and the hybrid organizations that leverage it more effective. What is striking about Anthropic’s report is how transparent it is about all the hard-won lessons learned in developing its offering—and the fact that many of these lessons sound a lot like what we find in classic management texts:

LESSON 1: DELEGATION MATTERS.

When Anthropic analyzed what factors lead to excellent performance by Claude Research, it turned out that the best agentic systems weren’t necessarily built on the best or most expensive AI models. Rather, like a good human manager, they need to excel at breaking down and distributing tasks to their digital workers.

Unlike human teams, agentic systems can enlist as many AI workers as needed, onboard them instantly and immediately set them to work. Organizations that can exploit this scalability property of AI will gain a key advantage, but the hard part is assigning each of them to contribute meaningful, complementary work to the overall project.

In classical management, this is called delegation. Any good manager knows that, even if they have the most experience and the strongest skills of anyone on their team, they can’t do it all alone. Delegation is necessary to harness the collective capacity of their team. It turns out this is crucial to AI, too.

The authors explain this result in terms of ‘parallelization’: Being able to separate the work into small chunks allows many AI agents to contribute work simultaneously, each focusing on one piece of the problem. The research report attributes 80 per cent of the performance differences between agentic AI systems to the total amount of computing resources they leverage.

Whether or not each individual agent is the smartest in the digital toolbox, the collective has more capacity for reasoning when there are many AI ‘hands’ working together. In addition to the quality of the output, teams working in parallel get work done faster. Anthropic says that reconfiguring its AI agents to work in parallel improved research speed by 90 per cent.

Anthropic’s report on how to orchestrate agentic systems effectively reads like a classical delegation training manual: Provide a clear objective, specify the output you expect and provide guidance on what tools to use, and set boundaries. When the objective and output format is not clear, workers may come back with irrelevant or irreconcilable information.

LESSON 2: ITERATION MATTERS.

Edison famously tested thousands of light bulb designs and filament materials before arriving at a workable solution. Likewise, successful agentic AI systems work far better when they are allowed to learn from their early attempts and then try again. Claude Research spawns a multitude of AI agents, each doubling and tripling back on their own work as they go through a trial-and-error process to land on the right results.

This is exactly how management researchers have recommended organizations staff novel projects where large teams are tasked with exploring unfamiliar terrain: Teams should split up and conduct trial-and-error learning, in parallel, like a pharmaceutical company progressing multiple molecules towards a potential clinical trial. Even when one candidate seems to have the strongest chances at the outset, there is no telling in advance which one will improve the most as it is iterated upon.

The advantage of using AI for this iterative process is speed: AI agents can complete and retry their tasks in milliseconds. A recent report from Microsoft Research illustrates this. Its agentic AI system launched up to five AI worker teams in a race to finish a task first, each plotting and pursuing its own iterative path to the destination. They found that a five-team system typically returned results about twice as fast as a single AI worker team with no loss in effectiveness, although at the cost of about twice as much total computing spend.

Going further, Claude Research’s system design endowed its top-level AI agent—the ‘Lead Researcher’—with the decision authority to delegate more research iterations if it was not satisfied with the results returned by its sub-agents. They managed the choice of whether or not they should continue their iterative search loop, to a limit. To the extent that agentic AI mirrors the world of human management, this might be one of the most important topics to watch going forward. Deciding when to stop and what is ‘good enough’ has always been one of the hardest problems organizations face.

LESSON 3: EFFECTIVE INFORMATION SHARING MATTERS.

If you work in a manufacturing department, you wouldn’t rely on your division chief to explain the specs you need to meet for a new product. You would go straight to the source: the domain experts in R&D. Successful organizations need to be able to share complex information efficiently both vertically and horizontally.

To solve the horizontal sharing problem for Claude Research, Anthropic innovated a novel mechanism for AI agents to share their outputs directly with each other by writing directly to a common file system, like a corporate intranet. In addition to saving on the cost of the central coordinator having to consume every sub-agent’s output, this approach helps resolve the information bottleneck. It enables AI agents that have become specialized in their tasks to own how their content is presented to the larger digital team. This is a smart way to leverage the superhuman scope of AI workers, enabling each of many AI agents to act as distinct subject matter experts.

In effect, Anthropic’s AI Lead Researchers must be generalist managers. Their job is to see the big picture and translate that into the guidance that sub-agents need to do their work. They don’t need to be experts on every task the sub-agents are performing. The parallel goes further: AIs working together also need to know the limits of information sharing, like what kinds of tasks don’t make sense to distribute horizontally.

Management scholars suggest that human organizations focus on automating the smallest tasks; the ones that are most repeatable and that can be executed the most independently. Tasks that require more interaction between people tend to go slower, since the communication not only adds overhead, but is something that many struggle to do effectively.

Anthropic found much the same was true of its AI agents: “Domains that require all agents to share the same context or involve many dependencies between agents are not a good fit for multi-agent systems today.” This is why the company focused its premier agentic AI feature on research, a process that can leverage a large number of sub-agents each performing repetitive, isolated searches before compiling and synthesizing the results.

All of these lessons lead to the conclusion that knowing your team and paying keen attention to how to get the best out of them will continue to be the most important skill of successful managers of both humans and AIs. With humans, we call this leadership skill empathy. That concept doesn’t apply to AIs, but the techniques of empathic managers do.

Anthropic got the most out of its AI agents by performing a thoughtful, systematic analysis of their performance and what supports they benefited from, and then used that insight to optimize how they execute as a team. Claude Research is designed to put different AI models in the positions where they are most likely to succeed. Anthropic’s most intelligent Opus model takes the Lead Researcher role, while their cheaper and faster Sonnet model fulfills the more numerous sub-agent roles. Anthropic has analyzed how to distribute responsibility and share information across its digital worker network. And it knows that the next generation of AI models might work in importantly different ways, so it has built performance measurement and management systems that help it tune its organizational architecture to adapt to the characteristics of its AI ‘workers.’

Key Takeaways

Managers of hybrid teams can apply these ideas to design their own complex systems of human and digital workers:

DELEGATE.

Analyze the tasks in your workflows so that you can design a division of labour that plays to the strength of each of your resources. Entrust your most experienced humans with the roles that require context and judgment and entrust AI models with the tasks that need to be done quickly or benefit from extreme parallelization.

If you’re building a hybrid customer service organization, let AIs handle tasks like eliciting pertinent information from customers and suggesting common solutions. But always escalate to human representatives to resolve unique situations and offer accommodations, especially when doing so can carry legal obligations and financial ramifications. To help them work together well, task the AI agents with preparing concise briefs compiling the case history and potential resolutions to help humans jump into the conversation.

ITERATE.

AIs will likely underperform your top human team members when it comes to solving novel problems in the fields in which they are expert. But AI agents’ speed and parallelization still make them valuable partners. Look for ways to augment human-led explorations of new territory with agentic AI scouting teams that can explore many paths for them in advance.

Hybrid software development teams will especially benefit from this strategy. Agentic coding AI systems are capable of building apps, autonomously making improvements to and bug-fixing their code to meet a spec. But without humans in the loop, they can fall into rabbit holes. Examples abound of AI-generated code that might appear to satisfy specified requirements, but diverges from products that meet organizational requirements for security, integration or user experiences that humans would truly desire. Take advantage of the fast iteration of AI programmers to test different solutions, but make sure your human team is checking its work and redirecting the AI when needed.

SHARE.

Make sure each of your hybrid team’s outputs are accessible to each other so that they can benefit from each others’ work products. Make sure workers doing hand-offs write down clear instructions with enough context that either a human colleague or AI model could follow. Anthropic found that AI teams benefited from clearly communicating their work to each other, and the same will be true of communication between humans and AI in hybrid teams.

MEASURE AND IMPROVE.

Organizations should always strive to grow the capabilities of their human team members over time. Assume that the capabilities and behaviors of your AI team members will change over time, too, but at a much faster rate. So will the ways the humans and AIs interact together. Make sure to understand how they are performing individually and together at the task level, and plan to experiment with the roles you ask AI workers to take on as the technology evolves.

An important example of this comes from medical imaging. Harvard Medical School researchers have found that hybrid AI-physician teams have wildly varying performance as diagnosticians. The problem wasn’t necessarily that the AI has poor or inconsistent performance; what mattered was the interaction between person and machine. Different doctors’ diagnostic performance benefited—or suffered—at different levels when they used AI tools. Being able to measure and optimize those interactions, perhaps at the individual level, will be critical to hybrid organizations.

In Closing

We are in a phase of AI technology where the best performance is going to come from mixed teams of humans and AIs working together. Managing those teams is not going to be the same as we’ve grown used to, but the hard-won lessons of decades past still have a lot to offer.

This essay was written with Nathan E. Sanders, and originally appeared in Rotman Management Magazine.

The Obvious, the Easy, and the Possible

This 2021 post from Jason Fried is a good chaser to his “The Big Regression” this week (which I linked to yesterday):

Much of the tension in product development and interface design comes from trying to balance the obvious, the easy, and the possible. Figuring out which things go in which bucket is critical to fully understanding how to make something useful.

Shouldn’t everything be obvious? Unless you’re making a product that just does one thing — like a paperclip, for example — everything won’t be obvious. You have to make tough calls about what needs to be obvious, what should be easy, and what should be possible. The more things something (a product, a feature, a screen, etc) does, the more calls you have to make.

This isn’t the same as prioritizing things. High, medium, low priority doesn’t tell you enough about the problem. “What needs to be obvious?” is a better question to ask than “What’s high priority?” Further, priority doesn’t tell you anything about cost. And the first thing to internalize is that everything has a cost.

Obvious / easy / possible is a good filter through which to create — and critique — designs. To borrow an example from yesterday: old-fashioned analog light switches are exemplars of obviousness; most new-fashioned smart switches are exemplars of possibility.

 ★ 

Trump’s ‘High-Fear’ World

Not long after I first moved to Washington, D.C. more than 25 years ago, I was at a foreign policy event and my friend, who was the moderator, talked about “high trust” versus “high fear” international orders. The concept is simple: trust and fear each build on themselves and tend to create their own equilibria. A high-trust environment encourages trustworthy and predictable behavior. A high-fear environment makes trust foolish and dangerous. It makes rapid resorts to violence and force logical and common. What is most important about this observation is the way each environment is self-perpetuating, how each creates a logic which participants are foolish not to follow, even if they wish they were in a different international order altogether.

I’ve been watching the various debates about what the U.S. is doing in Venezuela, and may possibly do in Greenland, Cuba or other Latin American states. Most of them, as I’ve noted, seem wildly overdetermined. You have different factions pushing for various military adventures, often for different reasons. If they can pique Trump’s interest, there’s a good chance the adventure will happen. What the reason is depends on which faction you decide was most important. Whatever you find out from that analysis is probably an illusion. There’s a more general pattern that helps understand this current moment, one that has little to do with formal ideology and quite a lot to do with his business practices before he entered politics.

Not long after Trump got into the presidential race in 2015, I heard from a New York City real estate lawyer/executive. This wasn’t a member of one of the big city real estate families but someone who had worked for more than one of them at a very high level and had observed Trump for years up close. He described Trump’s practice of catching people off guard with behavior that was so unpredictable, wild and above all aggressive that he was often able to get his way. Knocked back on their heels by his outrageous and sharkish behavior, they wouldn’t know how to respond. They would be so stunned and flummoxed they’d just let him get away with things.

We see something very similar unfolding in Trump’s foreign policy, if you can call it that. He engages in a pretty basic process of taking things, daring the nominal referees to do something about it and then handing off assets to cronies and and oligarchs. One of my longtime correspondents noted today that all of these adventures come back to the same story: attempting to seize something, whether it’s Venezuela or Greenland, then handing out concessions for oil or mineral extraction or something else to oligarchs and favorites. Is Venezuela about oil? Well, the actual oil companies don’t seem to want it. And the world actually has lots of oil right now. That’s probably an indication that it’s not “about oil”, at least as we conventionally understand it. But it may be significantly about “stuff”, as in putting the President in a position where he can hand out stuff to would-be supporters — big volumes of Venezuelan oil, perhaps rights to de-nationalize the country’s oil infrastructure. Same thing with Greenland, which has vast reserves of critical minerals, especially once the ice sheet melts off.

Very little of this is ideological. It’s instinctual, core to Trump’s character and way of navigating the world. We can map it on to theories of international relations. But that’s not where it comes from. Trump is the same guy in business as in domestic policy as in foreign policy. This has been a rough week for the rubes who bought the idea that Trump was in some way anti-war. But we’re dealing with the same issue of the persistence of character. It is wild to imagine the same man who operates by surprise, uncertainty and exertions of raw force at home wouldn’t do just the same thing abroad. Which of course is precisely what he is doing.

This brings us back to “high-trust” and “high-fear” international orders. Trump’s intentionally chaotic and predatory actions are pulling the globe rapidly in the direction of a “high-fear” international order in which resorting to force and violence is logical and common. That builds up the power of those who can mobilize the most force, as in the president of the United States. That places attention on Trump personally. It builds up his personal power, power that has little to do with the U.S. Constitution or even the US as a construct. It also gives him power to dole out stuff to oligarchs and supporters who then become very invested, quite literally, in the continuation of his rule or at least the actions taken under his rule.

This doesn’t mean that all of this will work. But this is a system of willed uncertainty and corruption that he’s operating in. The precise details of each prey state aren’t the important thing. It’s the system of smash-and-grab military adventures which feed a system of contracts and resource extraction — oil, minerals, whatever — all aimed at increasing Trump’s personal power and secondarily, though significantly, the wealth of his family.

Join TPM for the First-Ever Morning Memo Live Event on Trump’s Assault on the Rule of Law

The new year dawned with a shock. After months of saber-rattling against Venezuela and illegal attacks on alleged drug-running boats throughout the Caribbean, the U.S. military swept into Caracas on Jan. 3 and abducted President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. 

As TPM’s David Kurtz put it, by ordering the stunning strike, “President Trump is claiming and exercising an unbridled form of executive power not heretofore seen in the United States, unconstrained by a pliable GOP-controlled Congress that has abdicated its constitutional powers.” David has been chronicling Trump’s trampling of the rule of law in his flagship Morning Memo newsletter, and on Thursday Jan. 29, you can hear him break it all down live with an A-list lineup of panelists.

TPM is hosting the first-ever Morning Memo Live event at the National Union Building in D.C. for a robust discussion on the politicization of the Justice Department under Trump II. The panelists include:

  • Stacey Young, a former 18-year DOJ veteran who is the founder and executive director of Justice Connection, a network of DOJ alumni providing support to current and recent DOJ employees;
  • Aaron Zelinsky, a former assistant U.S. attorney in Maryland who served on Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team, where he prosecuted Roger Stone, and who is now a partner at Zuckerman Spaeder in Baltimore; and
  • Anna Bower, a senior editor at Lawfare who covers rule of law issues and fields wacky Signal messages from Lindsey Halligan.

Attendees are encouraged to ask their own questions, and to join the panelists for a reception after. Tickets are free for TPM Inside members, who can expect a special discount code via email.

Get tickets here while they last — you won’t want to miss this. 

A Tragic, Foreseeable ICE Shooting

The tragic fatal shooting by an ICE officer a citizen feels as if was the inevitable failure of assigning armed, undertrained, masked agents into our city streets to do widespread deportation raids in residential neighborhoods.

So, too, is the pitched verbal battle over who was to blame.

Without any investigation or evidence. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Donald Trump already had decided that the slain woman was a “domestic terrorist” who “weaponized her vehicle” and attempted “to run over our law enforcement officers in an attempt to kill them.” Noem said her officers felt under threat and were justified in firing into a car.

The woman, Renee Good, 37, had been parked in the street as part of nonviolent protest.

On the streets of Minneapolis, once again defiant citizens told a different story — one of an unprovoked shooting by a camo-clad agent into the car.

There will be investigations, but, as always, the lines of partisanship already have outlined the beliefs at odds here.

This Time, Videos

Videos by bystanders seemed to show that the shooting in full daylight and among a small crowd happened without provocation. The videos show agents approaching the car and one vigorously trying to open the driver door. The car clearly backed up away from ICE officers – something that contradicts Noem’s account. One ICE officer is seen partially in front of the car as it moves forward, away from the officers. That agent is seen firing his gun as the car drives by him. Three gunshots can be heard.

There was no attempt to save the shot woman despite the presence of a platoon of agents. A video showed agents keeping a doctor away from the shooting victim.

Mayor Jacob Frey told ICE to get out of town, using vulgarities to say that rather than bringing safety to streets, they have disgorged violence. Gov. Tim Walz said the account from the feds could not be believed. Local clergy took to the streets to keep things calm.

By any law enforcement analysis, shooting an unarmed driver through the front windshield into a car is not approved policy or training. Noem couldn’t even get straight the detail that the agents were stuck in the snow, and were hemmed in. The videos say they weren’t.

The tragedy here is not only a death, but the idea that this outcome has been so predictable.

Random neighborhood immigration sweeps without specific suspects with serious criminal backgrounds conducted by undertrained Homeland Security agents is a bad policy, poorly executed. Instant government lies about the inevitable mistakes just makes it that much worse.


HELP US FIGHT BACK TO PROTECT YOUR RIGHTS. DONATE TODAY.

The post A Tragic, Foreseeable ICE Shooting appeared first on DCReport.org.

Trade Deficit Decreased to $29.4 Billion in October

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in October, down $18.8 billion from $48.1 billion in September, revised.

October exports were $302.0 billion, $7.8 billion more than September exports. October imports were $331.4 billion, $11.0 billion less than September imports.
emphasis added
U.S. Trade Exports Imports Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased and imports decreased in October. 

Exports were up 12% year-over-year; imports were down 4% year-over-year.

Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs.  

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

U.S. Trade Deficit The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $14.9 billion from $28.1 billion a year ago.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 208,000

The DOL reported:
In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 27, 2024 when it was 210,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 218,750 to 219,000.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 211,750.

This was slightly above the consensus estimate.

Performative Politics Matters

No, this post isn’t about Venezuela, though, given the title, it could have been! No, this post is about this initiative by shiny, new Mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, who yesterday announced the following (boldface mine):

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani says the city will be holding “Rental Ripoff” hearings with tenants across the five boroughs and taking action against “unconscionable” business practices in the coming months.

Mamdani signed an executive order Sunday directing his new Office of Mass Engagement and other city agencies to hold the hearings within his first 100 days in office.

The mayor’s office said New Yorkers will be able to testify about their biggest challenges as renters, from shoddy building conditions to hidden fees, during hearings in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island…

The administration said it will publish a detailed report on the hearings’ findings, including “common themes and areas of opportunity.”

No, this by itself won’t make housing more affordable. But using this to build up support for good housing policy is smart. And having an Office of Mass Engagement is good: people want to have opportunities to be heard, and having an office that does this, and makes an effort to get people involved is good for democracy.

Performative politics does matter.

How Did TVs Get So Cheap?

You’ve probably seen this famous graph that breaks out various categories of inflation, showing labor-intensive services getting more expensive during the 21st century and manufactured goods getting less expensive.

One of the standout items is TVs, which have fallen in price more than any other major category on the chart. TVs have gotten so cheap that they’re vastly cheaper than 25 years ago even before adjusting for inflation. In 2001, Best Buy was selling a 50 inch big screen TV on Black Friday for $1100. Today a TV that size will set you back less than $200.

Via Amazon.

The plot below shows the price of TVs across Best Buy’s Black Friday ads for the last 25 years. The units are “dollars per area-pixel”: price divided by screen area times the number of pixels (normalized so that standard definition = 1). This is to account for the fact that bigger, higher resolution TVs are more expensive. You can see that, in line with the inflation chart, the price per area-pixel has fallen by more than 90%.

This has prompted folks to wonder, how exactly did a complex manufactured good like the TV get so incredibly cheap?

It was somewhat more difficult than I expected to suss out how TV manufacturing has gotten more efficient over time, possibly because the industry is highly secretive. Nonetheless, I was able to piece together what some of the major drivers of TV cost reduction over the last several decades have been. In short, every major efficiency improving mechanism that I identify in my book is on display when it comes to TV manufacturing.

How an LCD TV works

Since 2000, the story of TVs falling in price is largely the story of liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs going from a niche, expensive technology to a mass-produced and inexpensive one. As late as 2004, LCDs were just 5% of the TV market; by 2018, they were more than 95% of it.

Liquid crystals are molecules that, as their name suggests, form regular, repetitive arrangements (like crystals) even as they remain a liquid. They exhibit two other important characteristics that together can be used to construct a display. First, the molecules can be made to change their orientation when an electric field is applied to them. Second, if polarized light (light oscillating within a single plane) passes through a liquid crystal, its plane of polarization will rotate, with the amount of rotation depending on the orientation of the liquid crystal.

Liquid crystal rotating the plane of polarization of light, via Chemistry LibreTexts.

LCD screens use these phenomena to build a display. Each pixel in an LCD TV contains three cells, which are each filled with liquid crystal and have either a red, green, or blue color filter. Light from behind the screen (provided by a backlight) first passes through a polarizing filter, blocking all light except light within a particular plane. This light then passes through the liquid crystal, altering the light’s plane of polarization, and then through the color filter, which only allows red, green, or blue light to pass. It then passes through another polarizing filter at a perpendicular orientation to the first. This last filter will let different amounts of light through, depending on how much its plane of polarization has been rotated. The result is an array of pixels with varying degrees of red, blue, and green light, which collectively make up the display.

Structure of an LCD screen, via Nano Banana.

On modern LCD TVs, the liquid crystals are combined together with a bunch of semiconductor technology. The backlight is provided by light emitting diodes (LEDs), and the electric field to rotate the liquid crystal within each cell is controlled by a thin-film transistor (TFT) built up directly on the glass surface.

Some LCD screens, known as QLED, use quantum dots in the backlight to provide better picture quality, but these otherwise work very similarly to traditional LCD screens. There are also other types of display technology used for TVs, such as organic LEDs (OLED), that don’t use liquid crystal at all, but today these are still a small (but rising) fraction of total TV sales.

It took decades for LCDs to become the primary technology used for TV screens. LCDs first found use in the 1970s in calculators, then other small electronic devices, then watches. By the 1980s they were being used for small portable TV screens, and then for laptop and computer screens. By the mid-1990s LCDs were displacing cathode ray tube (CRT) computer monitors, and by the early 2000s were being used for larger TVs.

Steadily falling LCD TV Cost

When LCD TVs first appeared, they were an expensive, luxury product. In this 2003 Black Friday ad, Best Buy is selling a 20 inch LCD TV (with “dazzling 640x480 resolution”) for $800. The same ad has a 27 inch CRT TV on sale for $150. (I remember wanting to buy an LCD TV when I went to college in 2003, but settling for a much cheaper CRT).

How did the cost of LCD TVs come down?

LCD TVs start life as a large sheet of extremely clear glass, known as “mother glass”, manufactured by companies like Corning. Layers of semiconductor material are deposited onto this glass and selectively etched away using photolithography, producing the thin film transistors that will be used to control the individual pixels. Once the transistors have been made, the liquid crystal is deposited into individual cells, and the color filter (built up on a separate sheet of glass) is attached. The mother glass is then cut into individual panels, and the rest of the components — polarizing filters, circuit boards, backlights — are added.

LCD manufacturing process, via RJY Display.

A key aspect of this process is that many manufacturing steps are performed on the large sheets of mother glass, before it’s been cut into individual display panels. And over time, these mother glass sheets have gotten larger and larger. The first “Generation 1” sheets of mother glass were around 12 inches by 16 inches. Today, Generation 10.5 mother glass sheets are 116 by 133 inches, nearly 100 times as large.

Scaling up the size of mother glass sheets has been a major challenge. The larger the sheet of glass, and the larger the size of the display being cut from it, the more important it becomes to eliminate defects and impurities. As a result, manufacturers have had to find ways to keep very large surfaces pristine — LCDs today are manufactured in cleanroom conditions. And larger sheets of glass are more difficult to move. Corning built a mother glass plant right next to a Sharp LCD plant to avoid transportation bottlenecks and allow for increasingly large sheets of mother glass.

However, there are substantial benefits to using larger sheets of glass. Due to geometric scaling effects, it’s more efficient to manufacture LCDs from larger sheets of mother glass, as the cost of the manufacturing equipment rises more slowly than the area of the glass panel. Going from Gen 4 to Gen 5 mother glass sheets reduced the cost per diagonal inch of LCD displays by 50%. From Gen 4 to Gen 8, the equipment costs per unit of LCD panel area fell by 80%. Mother glass scaling effects have, as I understand it, been the largest driver of LCD cost declines.

Via Corning.

LCDs have thus followed a similar path to semiconductor manufacturing, where an important driver of cost reduction has been manufacturers using larger and larger silicon wafers over time. In fact, sheets of mother glass have grown in size much faster than silicon wafers for semiconductor manufacturing:

Via Corning.

LCDs are thus an interesting example of costs falling due to the use of larger and larger batch sizes. Several decades of lean manufacturing and business schools assigning “The Goal” have convinced many folks that you should always aim to reduce batch size, and that the ideal manufacturing process is “one piece flow” where you’re processing a single unit at a time. But as we see in several processes — semiconductor manufacturing, LCD production, container shipping — increasing your batch size can, depending on the nature of your process, result in substantial cost savings.

At the same time, we do see a tendency towards one piece flow at the level of mother glass panels. Early LCD fabs would bundle mother glass sheets together into cassettes, and then move those cassettes through subsequent steps of the manufacturing process. Modern LCD fabs use something much closer to a continuous process, where individual sheets of mother glass move through the process one at a time.

Outside of larger and larger sheets of mother glass, there have been numerous other technology and process improvements that have allowed LCD costs to fall:

  • “Cluster” plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) machines were developed in the 1990s for depositing thin film transistor materials. These machines were much faster, and required much less maintenance, than previous machines.

  • Manufacturers have found ways to reduce the number of process steps required to create thin-film transistors. Early operations required eight separate masking steps to build up the transistors. This was eventually reduced to four.

  • Thanks to innovations like moving manufacturing operations into cleanrooms and replacing manual labor with robots, yields have improved. Early LCD manufacturing often operated at 50% yield, where modern operations achieve 90%+ yields.

  • Cutting efficiency – the fraction of a sheet of mother glass that actually goes into a display — has increased, thanks to strategies like Multi-Model Glass, which allows manufacturers to cut displays of different sizes from the same sheet of mother glass.

  • The technology for filling panels with liquid crystal has improved. Until the early 2000s, displays were filled with liquid crystal through capillary action: small gaps were left in the sealant used to create the individual crystal cells, which the liquid crystal would gradually be drawn into. It could take hours, or even days, to fill a panel with liquid crystal. The development of the “one drop fill” method — a process in which each cell is filled before the sealant was cured, and then UV light is used to cure the sealant — reduced the time required to fill a panel from days to minutes.

  • Glass substrates were gradually made more durable, which reduced defects and allowed for more aggressive, faster etching.

Strategies for LCD manufacturing improvement, circa 2006. Via FPD 2006 Yearbook.

More generally, because LCD manufacturing is very similar to semiconductor manufacturing , the industry has been able to benefit from advances in semiconductor production. (As one industry expert noted in 2005, “[t]he display manufacturing process is a lot like the semiconductor manufacturing process, it’s just simpler and bigger.”) LCD manufacturing has relied on equipment originally developed for semiconductor production (such as steppers for photolithography), and has tapped semiconductor industry expertise for things like minimizing contamination. Some semiconductor manufacturers (like Sharp) have later entered the LCD manufacturing market.

LCD manufacturing has also greatly benefitted from economies of scale. A large, modern LCD fab will cost several billion dollars and produce over a million displays a day.1 It’s thanks to the enormous market for LCD screens that these huge, efficient fabs can be justified, and the investment in new, improved process technology can be recouped.

Annual LCD production, via Corning.

Falling LCD costs have also been driven by relentless competition. A 2014 presentation from Corning states that LCD “looks like a 25 year suicide pact for display manufacturers.” Manufacturers have been required to continuously make enormous investments in larger fabs and newer technology, even as profit margins are constantly threatened (and occasionally turning negative). This seems to have partly been driven by countries considering flat panel display manufacturing a strategic priority — the Corning presentation notes that manufacturing investments have been driven by nationalism, and there were various efforts to prop up US LCD manufacturing in the 90s and 2000s for strategic reasons.

Conclusion

Those who have read my book will not find much surprising in the story of TV cost declines. Virtually all the major mechanisms that can drive efficiency improvements — improving technology and overlapping S-curves, economies of scale (including geometric scaling effects), eliminating process steps, reducing variability and improving yield, advancing towards continuous process manufacturing — are on display here.

1

Though many of these will be phone-sized displays.

SpaceX’s IPO will make space investment far less niche

Starship splashdown

Spend enough time investing in space and expectations change. The industry does not advance through clean inflection points that resolve uncertainty, and progress rarely aligns with the milestones investors are accustomed to tracking. More often, space infrastructure is absorbed gradually into other systems, registering as essential only after it is already embedded. That dynamic, rather […]

The post SpaceX’s IPO will make space investment far less niche appeared first on SpaceNews.

NASA seeks to accelerate development of Habitable Worlds Observatory

Habitable Worlds Observatory

NASA is ramping up work on its next flagship space telescope while also laying the groundwork for future observatories.

The post NASA seeks to accelerate development of Habitable Worlds Observatory appeared first on SpaceNews.

SkyFi expands virtual constellation with Vantor satellite imagery

Pay-as-you-go model aims to simplify traditionally complex imagery procurement

The post SkyFi expands virtual constellation with Vantor satellite imagery appeared first on SpaceNews.

2026 Outlook: Can Acquisition Reform Deliver for Military Space?

Air Force Secretary Troy Meink speaks about acquisition reforms at the 2025 Spacepower conference in Orlando, Florida. Credit: U.S. Air Force

After years of talk, the Pentagon faces hard choices on commercial adoption, missile defense and whether new space capabilities become enduring programs

The post 2026 Outlook: Can Acquisition Reform Deliver for Military Space? appeared first on SpaceNews.

The ‘space tax’ on your self-driving car

LiDAR costs, compute power and AI training are the “big three” usually associated with the high cost of autonomous vehicles (AVs). We rarely look up. But maybe we should. High above the Earth, the ionosphere, a chaotic, sun-charged layer of our atmosphere, is levying an invisible tax on every self-driving car in development. If you […]

The post The ‘space tax’ on your self-driving car appeared first on SpaceNews.

Medical issue could force early end of Crew-11 ISS mission

ISS spacewalk preps

An unspecified “medical concern” involving one of the astronauts aboard the International Space Station has postponed a spacewalk and could force an unprecedented early return of part of the crew.

The post Medical issue could force early end of Crew-11 ISS mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Interplanetary science needs a commercial backbone

An illustration of Rocket Lab’s proposed Earth Return Orbiter, which would capture a container of samples launched from the Martian surface to return to Earth. Credit: Rocket Lab

We are in an era where planetary science no longer depends on government missions. Commercial capabilities are mature and ready to deliver a higher cadence of planetary exploration that fits within proposed budgets. What’s missing is an operational model that matches ambition. The old way — one in which bespoke, government-run missions with decade-long development […]

The post Interplanetary science needs a commercial backbone appeared first on SpaceNews.

NASA continues to work toward February launch of Artemis 2

Artemis 2

NASA says it is continuing to prepare for a possible Artemis 2 launch as soon as February, but with remarkably little publicity for the historic mission.

The post NASA continues to work toward February launch of Artemis 2 appeared first on SpaceNews.

Terran Orbital Appoints Michael Vishion as Vice President of Program Management

terran orbital

IRVINE, Calif., Jan. 7, 2026 — Terran Orbital, a Lockheed Martin Company and a leading manufacturer of satellite solutions, announced today the appointment of Michael Vishion as vice president of […]

The post Terran Orbital Appoints Michael Vishion as Vice President of Program Management appeared first on SpaceNews.

Space Force moves to standardize satellites with ‘Handle 2.0’ contract

Falcon ExoDynamics wins contract to mature satellite interface developed by Aerospace Corp.

The post Space Force moves to standardize satellites with ‘Handle 2.0’ contract appeared first on SpaceNews.

Commercial plasma collection in the US: the Jaworski report for 2025

 Peter Jaworski, a tireless student of blood donation around the world, has published a report on the plasma industry.  It's full of interesting facts, a few of which are highlighted below.

America’s Plasma Contribution to the World: 2025
Launching the Georgetown Blood and Plasma Research Group and the annual state of the U.S. plasma industry report
  by Peter Jaworski 

"I am proud to announce the official launch of the Georgetown Blood and Plasma Research Group. Housed at Georgetown University, this initiative will serve as a dedicated academic hub for research on the ethics and economics of global supply chains for not only blood plasma, but blood, bone marrow, and other medically-useful substances of human origin. Our goal is to provide data-driven insights, foster serious philosophical discussion, and be a home for interdisciplinary research.
 

"This 2025 Annual Report is the first contribution to that mission. 

...

"As of December 31, there are 1,247 plasma collection centers in the United States (including four centers in Puerto Rico).

"To put this into perspective: The U.S. is now home to more plasma centers than community colleges
(just over 1,000) or Kohl’s department stores (around 1,175). There are almost as many plasma collection centers as Denny’s restaurants (around 1,300). 

...

"we can look at the economics of independent plasma companies. Their business is to sell plasma to fractionators, not to make medicine from the plasma.

"The current selling price of a liter of plasma is around $190, give or take $10.

  • Donors receive between 30-40% of that revenue, or around $70 (an average donation is 850 - 880 mL, requiring more than one donation to equal a liter).
  • The center spends a majority of the remaining revenue on costs like employees, supplies (“softgoods”), testing, and facility overhead.
  • The plasma center will pocket around 8-12%, or around $15 in profit. 

...

"The U.S. plasma industry does more than save American lives, it provides the material for life-saving therapies for patients around the world.

"The 62.5 million liters collected in the U.S. in 2025 represents around 68% of global plasma collections for the manufacture of medicines. About 52% of those collections will end up in medicines to treat American patients, while the remaining 48% will end up treating patients in the rest of the world."

The Tyranny of the Complainers

Some years ago, Dourado and Russell pointed out a stunning fact about airport noise complaints: A very large number come from a single individual or household.

In 2015, for example, 6,852 of the 8,760 complaints submitted to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport originated from one residence in the affluent Foxhall neighborhood of northwest Washington, DC. The residents of that particular house called Reagan National to express irritation about aircraft noise an average of almost 19 times per day during 2015.

Since then, total complaint volumes have exploded—but they are still coming from a tiny number of now apparently more “productive” individuals. In 2024, for example, one individual alone submitted 20,089 complaints, accounting for 25% of all complaints! Indeed, the total number of complainants was only 188 but they complained 79,918 times (an average of 425 per individual or more than one per day.)

What I learned recently is that it’s not just airport noise complaints. We see the same pattern in data from the US Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights which enforces federal civil rights laws related to education funding. In 2023, for example, 5059 sexual discrimination complaints came from a single individual–from a total of 8151 complaints. Thus, one individual accounted for 68.5% of all sexual discrimination complaints in that year.

In the annual reports for 2022-2024 the OCR identifies what type of complaint the single-individual with multiple complaints was making, a sex discrimination complaint, while in previous years they just give data on the number of complaints from single individuals compared to the total of all types of complaints. I’ve collated this data in this graph which presents totals compared to multiple complaints from a single individual without regard to the type of complaint. Do note, that there are also single individuals filing hundreds of other types of complaints such as age discrimination complaints so the data from more recent years may actually be an underestimate.

In any case, it’s clear that a single individual often accounts for 10-30% of all complaints! These complaints have to be investigated so this single individual may be costing taxpayers millions. It’s as if a single individual were pulling a fire alarm thousands of times a year, mobilizing emergency services on demand, and never facing repercussions.

Does this strategy work? Probably. When complaints are summarized for Congress or reported in the media, are totals presented as-is, or adjusted for spam?

Increasingly, public institutions seem to exist to manage the obsessions of a tiny number of neurotic—and possibly malicious—complainers.

The post The Tyranny of the Complainers appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Venezuela’s astoundingly messy debts are about to get messier

Oil majors, hedge funds, Chinese lenders—all have a stake

Is it better to rent or buy?

Much depends on long-term interest rates

Welcome to Chaos World

Source: The White House

Nicolas Maduro was a particularly unsuccessful dictator. He devastated Venezuela’s economy by continuing all the worst aspects of the irresponsible economic policies of his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, reducing much of his population to abject poverty. He stole elections, suppressed dissent, and killed many thousands of regime opponents. Venezuelans are unlikely to mourn his removal from power at the hands of Donald Trump’s lighting raid on January 3rd.

And yet Maduro’s capture has suddenly thrown much of the world into chaos and uncertainty. Trump ordered the U.S. Military to abduct a foreign head of state without Congressional authorization — a naked display of power in defiance of every international norm that had prevailed since World War 2. The geopolitical implications of that fact are going to reverberate a lot more than the abduction itself.

A little over two years ago, in the aftermath of the October 7th attacks in Israel, I wrote that Pax Americana was effectively dead:

The world is a more ungoverned, lawless place than it was 20 or even 10 years ago…The world is starting to revert into a jungle, where the strong prey upon the weak, and where there is a concomitant requirement that every country build up its own strength; if your neighbor is a tiger, you should probably grow some claws of your own. Old scores that had to wait can now be settled. Disputed bits of territory can now be retaken. Natural resources can now be seized. There are many reasons for countries to fight each other, and now one of the biggest reasons not to fight has been removed.

In that post, I wrote that the end of Pax Americana was due to America no longer being able to carry out its function of “world police”. Superficially, Trump’s capture of Maduro might seem to imply the opposite. Trump had Maduro arrested on drug trafficking charges, which is pretty much the definition of a police action. And the fact that the U.S. was so easily able to snatch Maduro — easily evading Chinese-made radars that were designed to catch stealth aircraft — might suggest that reports of the decline of American power had been premature.

In fact, the lesson is the opposite. America’s seizure of Maduro was not done in order to enforce global or international norms — it was done, purportedly, in order to enforce American domestic law. Trump wasn’t acting as “world police” — he was acting as the American police, under the assumption that Venezuela might as well belong to America.

The raid also exposed how mercurial American power has become. Trump claimed that his arrest of Maduro was due to Maduro’s membership in a drug cartel called “Cartel de los Soles”, but later admitted that no such cartel exists. Later, Trump implied that seizing oil had been part of his motivation, announcing that Venezuela would turn over 50 million barrels of oil (several weeks’ worth of production) to the United States. But as Eric Levitz points out, this doesn’t make a lot of sense either — the U.S. is not going to be able to confiscate large amounts of Venezuela’s oil, and flooding the world market with crude will simply depress the margins of America’s own oil producers.

In the absence of a clear motivation for the abduction, wild theories are being thrown around. Was this a bid to deter China from attacking Taiwan, by limiting Venezuela’s oil exports to China? Was it part of a deal between Trump and Russia/China, allowing Trump to dominate the Western Hemisphere in exchange for letting Russia have Ukraine and letting China have Taiwan? Was it the prelude to a U.S. invasion of Greenland? I saw all of these theories thrown around on social media, as well as some…um…less plausible ones:

No one really knows why this happened, and it seems like no one really expects to know. And the absence of a clear motivation for the attack makes it even more disruptive to whatever still existed of the old world order. In my post back in 2023, I wrote:

If the U.S. threat of intervention doesn’t depend on whether or not you send your army outside of your borders — if the U.S. might just attack you anyway because they don’t like you — then the incentive to avoid interstate conflict is reduced.

I was talking about the Iraq War; although Trump’s seizure of Maduro was far less bloody, it’s disruptive for similar reasons. Under Trump, America has gone from a source of stability in world affairs to a source of chaos.

At the same time, though, it would be wrong to place all or even most of the blame on Trump for the breakdown in the old international order.

Read more

Exclusive: A New Way To Study The Miracle Of Life

It’s one of those “only in San Francisco” moments.

You’re in the China Basin neighborhood and walk into an office building. You go past a door belonging to a moving company and another belonging to a finance company. You edge down a couple of hallways and walk past more offices of other sedate enterprises. Then, you get to the entrance of Becoming, open the door, and things go from bog-standard to bizarre and wonderful in an instant.

Becoming has desks where people work on laptops . . . sort of. Really, it has tables that have fought for their right to exist among an ever-encroaching morass of lab equipment and homemade scientific contraptions. There are soldering stations next to incubators next to gene sequencers next to optics setups on crates next to metal shelving racks packed full of centrifuge tubes and cell culture plates. The person most familiar with the nature of the chaos is the researcher sitting by the entrance who must lean back every time someone comes through the front door to avoid being compressed.

“We’re sticking into every little nook we can,” says Jack Cohen, the co-founder of Becoming. “Literally, every space.”

Becoming is bursting at the seams because it has been busy trying to build something groundbreaking - a new type of metabolic exchange system. Those words could apply to a lot of things, but, in this case, Becoming has found a way to grow and sustain a placenta outside of a body. Becoming uses this lab-grown placenta to nurture a mouse embryo, and it can observe what takes place as the embryo’s cells divide and grow. In other words, Becoming has engineered a new means of supporting the developmental process outside of the body and analyzing it in excruciating detail. In other, other words, Becoming can watch life unfold and perhaps do so for very long periods of time, and this could alter our understanding of the body in profound ways.

“No one has done this before,” says Cohen. “It’s not in the scientific literature.”

Subscribe now

Scientists have, of course, been able to observe the development of mammalian embryos outside of the body for decades. We have simple devices like roller culture rotators that swirl around tubes full of living cells in a bid to keep the cells bathed in nutrients and oxygen as they try to grow. Such techniques have allowed researchers to keep mice embryos going for a few days.

Jack and Divya at their lab. The couple met at a startup accelerator because of course they did.

The trick, though, is that these systems then break down as they’re not able to provide the embryo with enough of what it needs in terms of nutrients and waste removal to keep growing. We can only watch how the miracle of life occurs up to a point.

About three years ago, Cohen and Divya Dhar Cohen – the co-founder and CEO of Becoming and Jack’s spouse – sensed an opportunity to advance the state-of-the-art with these developmental systems. Divya, a Kiwi medical doctor with a background in bio-tech start-ups, had been reading papers related to stem cell technology and saw researchers forming ever more complex cell models. They were taking single cells and growing them into clumps and coaxing them toward being full organs. Divya fixated on the placenta as being one of the most interesting organs to work on because of its role in supporting life and decided to see if it might be possible to create a full, functioning placenta outside of a body.

As luck and love would have it, Divya had married Jack, who has a PhD in physics from Oxford and happens to be quite adept at building complex scientific contraptions by hand. The couple raised money (they won’t disclose how much or from whom yet), hired some employees, found their office and set to work. They’re speaking about their company and technology for the first time here.

Subscribe now

A MOUSE’S gestation period runs about 20 days. The placenta begins to form about midway through this process, as the embryo starts to search for more fuel.

“Most people think the placenta comes from the mum,” says Divya. “But it doesn’t. It comes from the embryo.

“The egg gets fertilized, and it has all the cells that it needs to maintain itself, including the placenta cells and the yolk sac cells, and obviously itself. Eventually, the placenta becomes the pathway to get more nutrients. So, the placenta attaches to the maternal environment to create this exchange of nutrients and gases.”

Becoming has, in effect, developed a way to replicate the maternal environment with a machine, or rather, a series of interlinked machines. On a metal rack in its office, Becoming has connected pumps, oxygenators, dialysis systems and containers full of liquids to each other via a series of tubes. Together, these mechanisms serve as lab-made replicas of human organs like the heart, lungs and kidneys. Their goal is to provide nutrients and expel waste. A series of sensors and computational models watch over what’s happening to make sure the chemical balance, temperature and other factors are at the right equilibrium to support ongoing development. The rack of gear then connects into a nearby incubator so that it can feed the embryo inside.

Subscribe now

It’s this machine that has helped Becoming start to progress beyond the less sophisticated roller culture rotators that researchers have relied on for the last half century. (For the moment, Becoming is keeping the exact details of the fluids and other parts of its machine secret and declined to let us publish photos of the device.)

“The hardest thing is the homeostasis,” Divya says. “When something is growing, it’s very dynamic. It’s consuming things and producing waste. It’s taken us a couple of years, but we can now get that balance right. This has all become possible because of the plethora of cheap sensors available, advances in microfluidics and advances in artificial intelligence. Suddenly, you can combine these things and build homeostatic controls.”

Becoming still has much work ahead of it, but today, it’s revealing the most promising results from its tests with a mouse embryo. The company has produced images showing early placental cells growing and behaving normally outside of the body over the period of a few days. The cells move and fuse with the surrounding tissue just as they would during early stages of pregnancy. And this is a big deal.

Up to this point, scientists have learned how to keep embryos alive outside the body for short periods, and they’ve learned how to grow placental cells in isolation. What they haven’t been able to do is reliably watch the first steps of placental development unfold as part of a living embryo, under controlled laboratory conditions. In Becoming’s system, the cells that would typically form the placenta have started pushing outward and organizing themselves, while the rest of the embryo continues its work. It’s not a full placenta yet, but it does appear to be a biotech first that should help us watch how things become multicellular, complex organisms much longer than ever before.1

“Development is the craziest process,” says Jack. “Every animal pretty much starts from one cell and is a ball of chemicals that then divides and divides and goes through this radical change in morphology and shape. And it does this pretty reliably every time. And we don’t know how that works.

“We don’t understand that process. We’ve been limited to a point where the placenta takes over. Now, we’re pushing beyond that point with this technology and can understand development further.”

The Becoming founders think they might have unlocked a host of major advances with their system. As Jack notes, they can learn more about one of life’s most amazing and crucial processes. In the bigger picture, the company has also now built a system that unites robotics, software and optics in a way that could be used to nurture and study all sorts of complex tissue. This, on the extreme end, could help with growing organ systems or, more simply, with watching how medicines interact with tissue over long periods of time.

Because its machine is so packed full of sensors and cameras and does things other developmental machines can’t, Becoming argues that it’s collecting new types of scientific data. It has built an AI model fed by data on how its machine works and how the cells develop, and the company believes that this model could, in turn, reveal fresh insights about how the human body developers and operates.

“If we think about current techniques like single cell genetic sequencing, scientists are measuring, say, a liver cell’s genetic state and then measuring it again a few hours to a few days later,” Jack says. “That’s cool, and you can see the effects of certain perturbations.

“But you’d also really like to understand development from a single cell all the way to a complex organism over a long time horizon – over days, weeks and months.”

The data and the model could get so good (again with the caveats that it’s very early days here) that Becoming might be able to create virtual versions of cells growing and dividing that allow for new forms of experiments based on much deeper knowledge of how the fundamental nature of life works. Becoming’s technology could perhaps be used to replace part of the animal testing process, follow disease progression in new ways and help with creating tissues for transplantation or developing longevity drugs. “We think we’re creating some really foundational technology,” Divya says.

In the months ahead, Becoming hopes to keep pushing the limits of its machine and to see if the placenta and embryo it’s supporting can grow for longer periods of time. The Cohens are convinced that they’ve already solved the major technical hurdles to pull this off, and that the rest is a matter of engineering.

“Our goal is to figure out what’s required to extend development beyond a single cell to a complex organism,” Divya says. “People have been trying to push this as far as possible for the last 50 years, but there’s been a limit. We’re saying now that we might be past that limit.”

Share

1

It should be noted that Jacob Hanna's lab has done particularly impressive work here and pushed the limits of what’s possible with the roller culture methods. Becoming will also have to deal with immune and endrocrine system complexities in the months ahead.

The Emperor’s New Oil Wealth

Rusty tanks float on an oil spill in the Orinoco Belt, near El Tigre in Anzoategui state on Oct. 12, 2018.

An oil spill in the Orinoco Belt

When George W. Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, he claimed that the goal was to establish a democratic regime. Some members of his administration may even have believed that. But many leftist critics insisted that it was all about seizing Iraq’s oil.

Although I was an outspoken opponent of that war, and deeply cynical about the Bush administration’s motives, I never believed the “war for oil” story. The principal motivation for the war, I still believe, was to wag the dog — to use a showy military victory to secure Bush’s reelection. According to some political scientists, that was a mission the war did, in fact, accomplish.

Donald Trump’s Venezuela venture is a very different story. During his triumphalist press conference after the abduction of Nicolás Maduro, Trump never used the word “democracy.” He did, however, say “oil” 27 times, declaring, “We’re going to take back the oil that, frankly, we should have taken back a long time ago.”

Even so, whatever it is we’re doing in Venezuela isn’t really a war for oil. It is, instead, a war for oil fantasies. The vast wealth Trump imagines is waiting there to be taken doesn’t exist.

You may have heard that Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves — 300 billion barrels. You probably don’t know that Venezuela’s reported oil reserves tripled while Hugo Chavez was president. This increase, from roughly 100 billion to 300 billion barrels, didn’t reflect major new discoveries or exploration. Instead, it reflected the Chavez government’s decision to reclassify the country’s Orinoco Belt heavy oil as “proved” — oil that can be recovered with reasonable certainty under existing economic and operating conditions:

Source: Torsten Slok

As Torsten Slok of Apollo, who recently made this point, notes, “Much of the oil is extra-heavy, which has low recovery and a high cost to produce.” This suggests that Venezuela’s claims to have immense usable oil reserves were politically motivated hype.

This view is supported by the fact that the huge increase in Venezuela’s reported oil reserves wasn’t followed by a surge in production. On the contrary, Venezuelan oil production soon plunged:

A graph showing the price of oil production

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: Torsten Slok

Plunging production was associated with a steady degradation of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, which would take years and many billions of dollars in investment to restore. Given these costs as well as political instability, major oil companies clearly aren’t enthusiastic about the idea of sinking money into Venezuela.

On Monday Trump suggested that he might reimburse oil companies for investment in the nation he claims — with no basis in reality — to control, reimbursing them for their outlays there. That is, we’ve gone in a matter of days from big talk about huge money-making opportunities to a proposal to, in effect, subsidize oil-industry investments in Venezuela at U.S. taxpayers’ expense.

Which is not to say that nobody has profited from the abduction of Maduro. A few months ago Trumpist billionaire Paul Singer bought Citgo, the former U.S.-based arm of Venezuela’s state-run oil company. Citgo owns three Gulf Coast refineries custom-built to process Venezuelan crude, refineries that have suffered from the U.S. embargo on imports of that crude. If Trump lifts that embargo, Singer will receive a huge windfall. But this windfall will have nothing to do with reviving Venezuelan production.

Singer has made huge political donations to Trump, raising questions about how much he has influenced policy. His purchase of Citgo was also remarkably well-timed. What did he know?

At a deeper level, Trump’s apparent belief that oil in the ground is a precious asset is decades out of date.

These days oil is cheap by historical standards. Here’s the real price of oil — its price adjusted for overall inflation — since 2000:

Source: Energy Information Administration

Oil prices are low mainly because of increased supply due to fracking, and the potential for more fracking is likely to keep them low for the foreseeable future. The breakeven price of fracked oil — the price at which it’s just profitable to drill a new well — is around $62 a barrel in the most important U.S. producing regions. While global oil prices fluctuate, they tend to return to that breakeven price after a few years:

A graph showing the price of oil

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

And $62 a barrel wouldn’t be high enough to make investing in the Orinoco Belt, where the estimated breakeven is more than $80, profitable even if there were no political risks.

In short, Trump’s belief that he has captured a lucrative prize in Venezuela’s oil fields would be an unrealistic fantasy even if he really were in control of a nation that is, in practice, still controlled by the same thugs who controlled it before Maduro was abducted.

MUSICAL CODA

Quoting Adam Wathan

[...] the reality is that 75% of the people on our engineering team lost their jobs here yesterday because of the brutal impact AI has had on our business. And every second I spend trying to do fun free things for the community like this is a second I'm not spending trying to turn the business around and make sure the people who are still here are getting their paychecks every month. [...]

Traffic to our docs is down about 40% from early 2023 despite Tailwind being more popular than ever. The docs are the only way people find out about our commercial products, and without customers we can't afford to maintain the framework. [...]

Tailwind is growing faster than it ever has and is bigger than it ever has been, and our revenue is down close to 80%. Right now there's just no correlation between making Tailwind easier to use and making development of the framework more sustainable.

Adam Wathan, CEO, Tailwind Labs

Tags: ai-ethics, css, generative-ai, ai, llms, open-source

My excellent Conversation with Brendan Foody

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary:

At 22, Brendan Foody is both the youngest Conversations with Tyler guest ever and the youngest unicorn founder on record. His company Mercor hires the experts who train frontier AI models—from poets grading verse to economists building evaluation frameworks—and has become one of the fastest-growing startups in history.

Tyler and Brendan discuss why Mercor pays poets $150 an hour, why AI labs need rubrics more than raw text, whether we should enshrine the aesthetic standards of past eras rather than current ones, how quickly models are improving at economically valuable tasks, how long until AI can stump Cass Sunstein, the coming shift toward knowledge workers building RL environments instead of doing repetitive analysis, how to interview without falling for vibes, why nepotism might make a comeback as AI optimizes everyone’s cover letters, scaling the Thiel Fellowship 100,000X, what his 8th-grade donut empire taught him about driving out competition, the link between dyslexia and entrepreneurship, dining out and dating in San Francisco, Mercor’s next steps, and more.

And an excerpt:

COWEN: Now, I saw an ad online not too long ago from Mercor, and it said $150 an hour for a poet. Why would you pay a poet $150 an hour?

FOODY: That’s a phenomenal place to start. For background on what the company does — we hire all of the experts that teach the leading AI models. When one of the AI labs wants to teach their models how to be better at poetry, we’ll find some of the best poets in the world that can help to measure success via creating evals and examples of how the model should behave.

One of the reasons that we’re able to pay so well to attract the best talent is that when we have these phenomenal poets that teach the models how to do things once, they’re then able to apply those skills and that knowledge across billions of users, hence allowing us to pay $150 an hour for some of the best poets in the world.

COWEN: The poets grade the poetry of the models or they grade the writing? What is it they’re grading?

FOODY: It could be some combination depending on the project. An example might be similar to how a professor in English class would create a rubric to grade an essay or a poem that they might have for the students. We could have a poet that creates a rubric to grade how well is the model creating whatever poetry you would like, and a response that would be desirable to a given user.

COWEN: How do you know when you have a good poet, or a great poet?

FOODY: That’s so much of the challenge of it, especially with these very subjective domains in the liberal arts. So much of it is this question of taste, where you want some degree of consensus of different exceptional people believing that they’re each doing a good job, but you probably don’t want too much consensus because you also want to get all of these edge case scenarios of what are the models doing that might deviate a little bit from what the norm is.

COWEN: So, you want your poet graders to disagree with each other some amount.

FOODY: Some amount, exactly, but still a response that is conducive with what most users would want to see in their model responses.

COWEN: Are you ever tempted to ask the AI models, “How good are the poet graders?”

[laughter]

FOODY: We often are. We do a lot of this. It’s where we’ll have the humans create a rubric or some eval to measure success, and then have the models say their perspective. You actually can get a little bit of signal from that, especially if you have an expert — we have tens of thousands of people that are working on our platform at any given time. Oftentimes, there’ll be someone that is tired or not putting a lot of effort into their work, and the models are able to help us with catching that.

And:

COWEN: Let’s say it’s poetry. Let’s say you can get it for free, grab what you want from the known universe. What’s the data that’s going to make the models, working through your company, better at poetry?

FOODY: I think that it’s people that have phenomenal taste of what would users of the end products, users of these frontier models want to see. Someone that understands that when a prompt is given to the model, what is the type of response that people are going to be amazed with? How we define the characteristics of those responses is imperative.

Probably more than just poets that have spent a lot of time in school, we would want people that know how to write work that gets a lot of traction from readers, that gains broad popularity and interest, drives the impact, so to speak, in whatever dimension that we define it within poetry.

COWEN: But what’s the data you want concretely? Is it a tape of them sitting around a table, students come, bring their poems, the person says, “I like this one, here’s why, here’s why not.” Is it that tape or is it written reports? What’s the thing that would come in the mail when you get your wish?

FOODY: The best analog is a rubric. If you have some —

COWEN: A rubric for how to grade?

FOODY: A rubric for how to grade. If the poem evokes this idea that is inevitably going to come up in this prompt or is a characteristic of a really good response, we’ll reward the model a certain amount. If it says this thing, we’ll penalize the model. If it styles the response in this way, we’ll reward it. Those are the types of things, in many ways, very similar to the way that a professor might create a rubric to grade an essay or a poem.

Poetry is definitely a more difficult one because I feel like it’s very unbounded. With a lot of essays that you might grade from your students, it’s a relatively well-scoped prompt where you can probably create a rubric that’s easy to apply to all of them, versus I can only imagine in poetry classes how difficult it is to both create an accurate rubric as well as apply it. The people that are able to do that the best are certainly extremely valuable and exciting.

COWEN: To get all nerdy here, Immanuel Kant in his third critique, Critique of Judgment, said, in essence, taste is that which cannot be captured in a rubric. If the data you want is a rubric and taste is really important, maybe Kant was wrong, but how do I square that whole picture? Is it, by invoking taste, you’re being circular and wishing for a free lunch that comes from outside the model, in a sense?

FOODY: There are other kinds of data they could do if it can’t be captured in a rubric. Another kind is RLHF, where you could have the model generate two responses similar to what you might see in ChatGPT, and then have these people with a lot of taste choose which response they prefer, and do that many times until the model is able to understand their preferences. That could be one way of going about it as well.

Interesting throughout, and definitely recommended.  Note the conversation was recorded in October (we have had a long queue), so a few parts of it sound slightly out of date.  And here is Hollis Robbins on LLMs and poetry.

The post My excellent Conversation with Brendan Foody appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

What Healthcare Training Programs Are Available at FVI’s Miami Campus?

The healthcare field continues to grow quickly, and many people are looking for trusted training programs that help them get into a stable career. In Miami, healthcare employers are hiring more nurses and medical assistants, and the demand continues to grow. FVI School of Nursing offers hands-on education that prepares students for the real world. The programs at their Miami campus are designed with flexibility and career readiness in mind. Students learn from experienced instructors who understand what today’s employers are looking for. The FVI nursing program gives students the tools they need to start strong in a healthcare career. At the Miami campus, students find a focused learning environment that supports both personal and professional growth. The school’s training programs are aligned with industry needs and designed to prepare students for licensure and employment.

Practical Nursing Program

One of the most popular training programs at FVI’s Miami campus is the Practical Nursing program. This program is a good fit for students who want to become Licensed Practical Nurses. It provides students with the clinical skills and classroom knowledge needed to care for patients. The curriculum covers important subjects like medical-surgical nursing, pediatric care, and pharmacology. Students also gain experience through clinical practice in real healthcare settings. This helps them build confidence and learn how to work as part of a medical team.

Medical Assistant Program

Another strong option at the Miami campus is the Medical Assistant program. This program trains students in both administrative and clinical tasks. Students learn how to schedule appointments, take vital signs, and assist with exams. The program focuses on building skills that can be used in doctors’ offices, clinics, and urgent care centers. Students finish the program ready to sit for national certification exams. It’s a great starting point for those who want to enter the medical field quickly.

Patient Care Technician Program

FVI offers a Patient Care Technician program for individuals seeking to care for patients in hospitals or nursing homes. This program teaches skills such as helping patients with daily tasks, drawing blood, and checking vital signs. The hands-on training prepares students for real-world work in a short amount of time. Instructors guide students through both classroom learning and clinical practice. Graduates are ready to take certification exams and apply for jobs right away. This program offers a direct path to employment in a growing field.

Focused Support and Career Services

The Miami campus is not just about classes. FVI puts a strong focus on student support and career development. Students get career support throughout the program, including resume help, interview practice, and job search guidance. The school also has strong relationships with local healthcare employers, which opens doors for internships and job interviews. This support helps students feel more confident when stepping into the workforce. The school’s goal is to see every student succeed in their chosen field.

Flexible Schedules and Hands-On Learning

FVI understands that many students need to balance school with work or family. That’s why the Miami campus offers both day and evening classes. Programs are designed to be completed in under two years, depending on the course. Each program blends classroom education with hands-on experience. Students have access to modern labs and equipment to practice their skills. This balanced approach helps students feel prepared and ready to work in a fast-paced healthcare environment.

Healthcare training at FVI’s Miami campus gives students more than just a certificate or diploma. It offers them a real chance at a better future through education that leads directly to employment. With programs in practical nursing, medical assisting, and patient care, students can choose the path that fits their goals. Each course is built to give the right mix of knowledge and hands-on training. Support from the staff and career services team helps make the journey smoother. This is a place where students can learn, grow, and move forward into a rewarding healthcare career.

Photo: Freepik via their website.


CLICK HERE TO DONATE IN SUPPORT OF DCREPORT’S NONPROFIT NEWSROOM

The post What Healthcare Training Programs Are Available at FVI’s Miami Campus? appeared first on DCReport.org.

A crew member’s “medical concern” foils a planned spacewalk outside the ISS

A planned spacewalk outside the International Space Station has been postponed due to a "medical concern" with one of the crew members aboard the orbital complex, NASA announced Wednesday.

The excursion was set to begin Thursday morning. Astronauts Mike Fincke and Zena Cardman planned to head outside the space station for six-and-a-half hours to prepare for the installation of new roll-out solar arrays set to arrive later this year. The arrival of the new solar arrays will be the final major upgrade to the lab's electrical system before the space station's decommissioning in 2030.

Privacy paramount

NASA said the crew member's medical concern arose Wednesday afternoon, and officials will reschedule the spacewalk.

Read full article

Comments

Here are the launches and landings we’re most excited about in 2026

Last year delivered doses of drama and excitement in the space business, with a record number of launches, breathtaking vistas of other worlds, and a multitude of breakthroughs and setbacks. 2026 is shaping up to be another thrilling year in the cosmos.

For the first time in more than 54 years, astronauts are training to travel to the vicinity of the Moon, perhaps within the next couple of months. NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and other companies are poised to take major steps toward actually landing humans on the Moon, perhaps within a few years.

New rockets are slated to debut in 2026, and scientists hope to open new windows on the Universe. Here, we list the most anticipated space missions scheduled for this year, ranked according to our own anticipation for them. We also assess the chances of these missions actually happening in the next 12 months. Unless specified, we don't assess the chances of a successful outcome.

Read full article

Comments

Explaining Cloud-9: A Celestial Object Like No Other

Explaining Cloud-9: A Celestial Object Like No Other

Some three years ago, the Five-Hundred Meter Aperture Spherical Telescope (FAST) in Guizhou, China discovered a gas agglomeration that was later dubbed Cloud-9. It’s a cute name, though unintentionally so, as this particular cloud is simply the ninth thus far identified near the spiral galaxy Messier 94 (M94). And while gas clouds don’t particularly call attention to themselves, this one is a bit of a stunner, as later research is now showing. It’s thought to be a gas-rich though starless cloud of dark matter, a holdover from early galaxy formation.

Scientists are referring to Cloud-9 as a new type of astronomical object. FAST’s detection at radio wavelengths has been confirmed by the Green Bank Telescope and the Very Large Array in the United States. The cloud has now been studied by the Hubble telescope’s Advanced Camera for Surveys, which revealed its complete lack of stars. That makes this an unusual object indeed.

Alejandro Benitez-Llambay (Milano-Bicocca University, Milan) is principal investigator of the Hubble work and lead author of the paper just published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. The results were presented at the ongoing meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Phoenix. Says Benitez-Llambay:

“This is a tale of a failed galaxy. In science, we usually learn more from the failures than from the successes. In this case, seeing no stars is what proves the theory right. It tells us that we have found in the local Universe a primordial building block of a galaxy that hasn’t formed.”

Here there’s a bit of a parallel with our recent discoveries of interstellar objects moving through our Solar System. In both cases, we are discovering a new type of object, and in both cases we are bringing equipment online that will, in relatively short order, almost certainly find more. We get Cloud-9 through the combination of radio detection via FAST and analysis by the Hubble space telescope, which was able to demonstrate that the object does lack stars.

Image: This image shows the location of Cloud-9, which is 14 million light-years from Earth. The diffuse magenta is radio data from the ground-based Very Large Array (VLA) showing the presence of the cloud. The dashed circle marks the peak of radio emission, which is where researchers focused their search for stars. Follow-up observations by the Hubble Space Telescope’s Advanced Camera for Surveys found no stars within the cloud. The few objects that appear within its boundaries are background galaxies. Before the Hubble observations, scientists could argue that Cloud-9 is a faint dwarf galaxy whose stars could not be seen with ground-based telescopes due to the lack of sensitivity. Hubble’s Advanced Camera for Surveys shows that, in reality, the failed galaxy contains no stars. Credit: Science: NASA, ESA, VLA, Gagandeep IAnand (STScI), Alejandro Benitez-Llambay (University of Milano-Bicocca); Image Processing: Joseph DePasquale (STScI).

We can refer to Cloud-9 as a Reionization-Limited H Ι Cloud, or RELHIC (that one ranks rather high on my acronym cleverness scale). H I is neutral atomic hydrogen, the most abundant form of matter in the universe. The paper formally defines RELHIC as “a starless dark matter halo filled with hydrostatic gas in thermal equilibrium with the cosmic ultraviolet background.” This would be primordial hydrogen from the earliest days of the universe, the kind of cloud we would normally expect to have become a ‘conventional’ spiral galaxy.

The lack of stars here leads co-author Rachael Beaton to refer to the object as an ‘abandoned house,” one which likely has others of its kind still awaiting discovery. In comparison with the kind of hydrogen clouds we’ve identified near our own galaxy, Cloud-9 is smaller, certainly more compact, and unusually spherical. Its core of neutral hydrogen is measured at roughly 4900 light years in diameter, with the hydrogen gas itself about one million times the mass of the Sun. The amount of dark matter needed to create the gravity to balance the pressure of the gas is about five billion solar masses. While the researchers do expect to find more such objects, they point out that ram pressure stripping can deplete gas as any cloud moves through the space between galaxies. In other words, the population of objects like RELHIC is likely quite small.

The paper places the finding of Cloud-9 in context within the framework now referred to as Lambda Cold Dark Matter (ACDM), which incorporates dark energy via a cosmological constant into a schemata that includes dark matter and ordinary matter. Quoting the paper’s conclusion:

In the ΛCDM framework, the existence of a critical halo mass scale for galaxy formation naturally predicts galaxies spanning orders of magnitude in stellar mass at roughly fixed halo mass. This threshold marks a sharp transition at which galaxy formation becomes increasingly inefficient (A. Benitez-Llambay & C. Frenk 2020), yielding outcomes that range from halos entirely devoid of stars to those able to form faint dwarfs, depending sensitively on their mass assembly histories. Even if Cloud-9 were to host an undetected, extremely faint stellar component, our HST observations, together with FAST and VLA data, remain fully consistent with these theoretical expectations. Cloud-9 thus appears to be the first known system that clearly signals this predicted transition, likely placing it among the rare RELHICs that inhabit the boundary between failed and successful galaxy formation. Regardless of its ultimate nature, Cloud-9 is unlike any dark, gas-rich source detected to date.

The paper is Gagandeep et al., “The First RELHIC? Cloud-9 is a Starless Gas Cloud,” The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Volume 993, Issue 2 (November 2025), id.L55, 7 pp. Full text.

Still Buying New Stretchers? Here’s Why Refurbishing Is the Smarter Choice

In today’s healthcare environment, every purchasing decision matters. Stretchers are used daily across hospitals, surgical centers, and emergency departments, yet many facilities still default to buying new units when replacements are needed. At the same time, new stretchers may seem like the safest choice, but refurbished stretchers are increasingly proving to be the more practical, cost-effective, and reliable option. When refurbished professionally, these units deliver the same performance standards while offering meaningful financial and operational advantages that modern healthcare facilities cannot ignore.

Lower Costs Without Sacrificing Quality

One of the most compelling reasons to choose refurbished stretchers is cost efficiency. New stretchers often come with high upfront costs that quickly add up when multiple units are required. Refurbished stretchers, by contrast, provide significant savings while maintaining the same essential functionality. During refurbishment, worn components are replaced, mechanical systems are recalibrated, and surfaces are restored to meet strict healthcare requirements. What many decision-makers overlook is that stretchers are engineered for long service lives. The core frame and structure are built to withstand years of use, making them ideal candidates for refurbishment. By restoring what already works and upgrading what does not, facilities gain dependable equipment without paying a premium for brand-new models that offer little additional value in daily use.

Reliable Performance That Meets Clinical Demands

Refurbished does not mean outdated or unreliable. Professionally refurbished stretchers go through detailed inspections and performance testing to ensure they function safely in demanding clinical environments. Wheels, brakes, hydraulic systems, and patient support surfaces are all addressed to guarantee smooth operation and stability. For staff, this reliability translates into better workflow and fewer disruptions. Familiar stretcher designs reduce the learning curve, enabling nurses and technicians to work efficiently without having to adapt to unfamiliar equipment. For patients, refurbished stretchers provide the same comfort, support, and safety they would expect from new units, reinforcing trust in the care environment.

Sustainability and Faster Availability

Sustainability has become a growing priority in healthcare, and refurbished stretchers support this goal by extending the lifecycle of existing equipment. Choosing refurbishment reduces waste, conserves raw materials, and lowers the environmental impact associated with manufacturing and transporting new products. This approach aligns with responsible healthcare practices while still meeting operational needs. Another key advantage is availability. New stretchers often involve long lead times due to manufacturing schedules and supply chain delays. Refurbished stretchers are typically available much faster, helping facilities respond quickly to growth, equipment shortages, or unexpected increases in patient volume. Faster access means less downtime and better continuity of care.

Still buying new stretchers simply because it has always been done that way can lead to unnecessary costs and missed opportunities. Refurbished stretchers provide a smarter, more strategic solution by delivering reliable performance, supporting sustainability goals, and preserving valuable healthcare budgets without compromising patient comfort or staff efficiency. As facilities continue to look for ways to operate more responsibly and efficiently, refurbishment stands out as a practical choice that aligns with modern healthcare demands. For organizations ready to rethink their equipment strategy and maximize long-term value, visit CeviMed for trusted refurbished medical solutions.

Photo: Martha Dominguez de Gouveia via Unsplash.


CLICK HERE TO DONATE IN SUPPORT OF DCREPORT’S NONPROFIT NEWSROOM

The post Still Buying New Stretchers? Here’s Why Refurbishing Is the Smarter Choice appeared first on DCReport.org.

SpaceX scrubs midday Starlink mission launch from Cape Canaveral

File: A Falcon 9 rocket stands in the launch position at Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station ahead of the planned liftoff of the Starlink 6-61 mission on Oct. 22, 2024. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Update Jan. 8, 9:36 a.m. EST (1436 UTC): SpaceX scrubbed the launch attempt on Thursday; targeting Friday, Jan. 9.

SpaceX scrubbed its planned early afternoon Falcon 9 launch on Thursday without citing a reason for the slip. The flight will deliver a new batch of its Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station when it does fly.

While an explanation for the delay to the Starlink 6-96 mission wasn’t publicly announced, the payload fairings with the 29 Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites inside was late in arriving to the pad at Space Launch Complex 40.

SpaceX is targeting its next opportunity for a flight from Space Launch Complex 40 on Friday, Jan. 9, during a window that opens at 1:03 p.m. EST (1803 UTC). The Falcon 9 rocket will fly on a south-easterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about an hour prior to liftoff.

Meteorologists with the 45th Weather Squadron forecast a greater than 95 percent chance for favorable weather at liftoff on Thursday. Launch weather officers said there may be some off-shore rain showers, but they shouldn’t impact conditions at the pad.

SpaceX will launch the mission using the Falcon 9 booster with the tail number 1069. This will be its 29th flight after launching missions, like CRS-24, Eutelsat Hotbird 13F and 24 batches of Starlink satellites.

Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1069 will target a landing on the drone ship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas,’ positioned in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of The Bahamas. If successful, this will be the 138th landing on this vessel and the 556th booster landing for SpaceX to date.

According to astronomer and expert orbital tracker Jonathan McDowell, there were more than 9,400 Starlink satellites in orbit as of Jan. 5.

Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 A ET, Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 205K, up from 199K.

A cold-blooded ICE murder in Minneapolis

From the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

I usually don’t write midday posts, but this one feels necessary.

In case you have yet to see this, earlier today a Minneapolis-based ICE agent fired into a moving vehicle and killed the driver. A 37-year-old American woman named Renee Nicole Good.

Wait, I’m going to adjust that sentence—murdered the driver. A 37-year-old American woman named Renee Nicole Good.

Wednesday is Day 2 of a planned monthlong ICE surge in Minneapolis, land of snow and ice and Joe Mauer and, according to the current White House, far too many Brown people. So ICE has arrived to save us, or save white folks, or punish a Democratic city in a Democratic state, and that means bringing in unidentified masked agents to terrorize as many humans as possible. Thanks to this Nazi-like movement … thanks to a street stoppage … thanks to an overzealous triggerman … thanks to a president who cares about a single human life (his) … thanks to a modern GOP that kneels before its God … thanks to a nation more interested in the Kardashians than democracy … thanks to a general unawareness of the poetitive nature of world history … a nation is under authoritarian rule, a lovely city is under siege and Renee Nicole Good’s life has ceased.

And, in normal times, we’d have accountability. Of course we’d have accountability. The president would make a statement bemoaning the loss and promising to fully investigate. He would fly in tomorrow, meet with the governor and mayor, talk things through.

But not now.

No. Not now.

Now, we have Kristi Noem (dressed as Cowgirl Barbi, no less) saying this …

And we have Donald Trump posting this …

And we have Newsmax reporting it this way …

And we have Minnesota’s leading Republican gubernatorial candidate stating this …

And, truly, we have a choice to make. I don’t mean we, everyone. I mean, we—us. What are we going to do? How quiet and pliant will we remain? How willing are we to set aside the TikTok videos, set aside the TV and stand up? And fight?

How comfortable are we with the demise of the dream? Of the ideals of Washington and Jefferson, of FDR and Kennedy, of MLK and Susan B. Anthony, of your parents and your grandparents … how comfortable are we with all of that collapsing?

How comfortable are you?

These past few days ...

Sometimes I think, by writing this substack with sarcasm, self-deprecation, oomph and piss, readers might get the impression that I’m 100 percent gusto; that I am convinced—over time—America will wake up and right itself and continue toward democracy’s destiny.

I am not.

Like y’all, I get down. Like y’all, the gut punches hurt. I can’t believe we just, oh, kidnapped a foreign leader so we can steal oil. I can’t believe Stephen Miller is a power player. I can’t believe Trump added his name to a center honoring a murdered predecessor. I can’t believe there’s a WALL OF PRESIDENTS in the White House that has a photograph of an autopen above Joe Biden’s name.

On and on and on.

And it guts me. It tears me up. It causes me to lose hope, to doubt, to sometimes legitimately scream in anger. I fantasize about moving to another nation and walling myself off.

I do, I do, I do.

But … ultimately, this is my country, and this is my fight. And while the nation as a whole feels enormous, Orange County does not. So I do what I can do, and you do what you can do. We have important local elections approaching. We have zealot-run school boards trying to stuff out kids’ heads with nationalistic garbage. We have oceans to keep clean, we have air to keep fresh. We have purpose.

I have purpose.

So, yeah, it all sucks right now. There’s no denying it, and the weight crushes me and my family and my friends.

But I do, quite often, think of my Grandma Marta and Grandpa Kurt, arriving here from Nazi Germany, seeking something beautiful in the United States of America.

I will not watch that die without giving it my all.

And neither should you.

January 6, 2026

January 6, 2026

“They say that when you win the presidency you lose the midterm,” President Donald J. Trump said today to House Republicans. “I wish you could explain to me what the hell is going on with the mind of the public because we have the right policy. They don’t. They have a horrible policy. They do stick together. They’re violent, they’re vicious, you know. They’re vicious people.”

“They had the worst policy. How we have to even run against these people—I won’t say cancel the election, they should cancel the election, because the fake news will say, ‘He wants the elections canceled. He’s a dictator.’ They always call me a dictator. Nobody is worse than Obama. And the people that surrounded Biden.”

And there you have it: in a rambling speech in which he jumped from topic to topic, danced, and appeared to mimic someone doing something either stupid or obscene, Trump explained the ideology behind his actions. He and MAGA Republicans have absorbed the last 40 years of Republican rhetoric to believe that Democratic policies are “horrible” and that only Republicans “have the right policy.” If that’s the case, why should Republicans even have to “run against these people?” Why even have elections? When voters choose Democrats, there’s something wrong with them, so why let them have a say? Their choice is bad by definition. Anything that they do, or have done, must be erased.

That is the ideology behind MAGA, amped up by the racism and sexism that identifies MAGA’s opponents as women, Black Americans, and people of color. In their telling, the world Americans constructed after World War II—and particularly after the 1965 Voting Rights Act protected Black and Brown voting—has destroyed the liberty of wealthy men to act without restraint. Free them, the logic goes, and they will Make America Great Again.

As tech entrepreneur Peter Thiel wrote in 2009: “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.” He continued: “The 1920s were the last decade in American history during which one could be genuinely optimistic about politics. Since 1920, the vast increase in welfare beneficiaries and the extension of the franchise to women—two constituencies that are notoriously tough for libertarians—have rendered the notion of ‘capitalist democracy’ into an oxymoron.”

“Because there are no truly free places left in our world,” he wrote, Thiel called for escaping into cyberspace, outer space, or seasteading.

While tech leaders are focusing on escaping established governments, Trump’s solution to an expanded democracy appears to be to silence the voters and lawmakers who support the “liberal consensus”—the once-bipartisan idea that the government should enable individuals to reach their greatest potential by protecting them from corporate power, poverty, lack of access to modern infrastructure, and discrimination—and to erase the policies of that consensus.

Nowhere does Trump’s conviction that he, and he alone, has the right to run the United States show more clearly than in the White House’s rewriting of the history of the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol were Trump supporters determined to overthrow the free and fair election of Democrat Joe Biden by more than 7 million votes in 2020, replacing him with Trump by virtue of their belief that no Democrat could be fairly elected.

But the official White House website reversed that reality today, claiming that the insurrectionists who beat and wounded at least 140 police officers, smeared feces on the walls of the Capitol building, and called for the hanging of Vice President Mike Pence were “peaceful patriotic protesters.” The real villains, the White House wrote in bold type, were “the Democrats who staged the real insurrection by certifying a fraud-ridden election, ignoring widespread irregularities, and weaponizing federal agencies to hunt down dissenters.”

In reality, modern Republican policies have rarely served everyday people, while the policies enacted by Democratic president Joe Biden demonstrably did. Biden rejected the ideology that called for cutting taxes, regulations, and social services in the name of liberty. Instead, he urged Congress to invest in public infrastructure, creating jobs, and he shored up the social safety net.

As Biden prepared to leave office in January 2025, Trump claimed that the U.S. was in freefall, “a disaster, a laughing stock all over the World!” But Peter Baker reported in the New York Times that the opposite was true: Biden and his administration were leaving behind a country that was in the best shape it had been since at least 2000.

There were no U.S. troops fighting in foreign wars, murders had plummeted, deaths from drug overdoses had dropped sharply, undocumented immigration was below where it was when Trump left office in 2021, stocks had just had their best two years since the last century. The economy was growing, real wages were rising, inflation had fallen to close to its normal range, unemployment was at near-historic lows, and energy production was at historic highs. The economy had added more than 700,000 manufacturing jobs among the 16 million total created since 2020.

Baker quoted chief economist of Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi, who said: “President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it ever gets.”

Once in office, Trump set about dismantling the policies that had achieved those results. And now, after destabilizing the country at home, he is working to destroy the rules-based international order that has stabilized the world since World War II. In addition to an illegal attack on Venezuela to extract Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, Trump is threatening Colombian president Gustavo Petro, saying “Cuba is ready to fall,” and warning Mexico to “get their act together.”

Although his sights are primarily on countries in the Western Hemisphere, Trump has also warned that if Iran starts “killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States.”

Trump has also threatened Greenland, which is a self-governing island that is part of Denmark, an ally in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. As NATO allies, Greenland and the U.S. have cooperated on defense for decades, so Trump’s declaration that the U.S. needs Greenland for national defense makes no sense.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in a statement Sunday: “The Kingdom of Denmark—and thus Greenland—is part of NATO and is therefore covered by the alliance’s security guarantee. We already have a defense agreement between the Kingdom and the United States today, which gives the United States wide access to Greenland. I would therefore strongly urge the United States to stop the threats against a historically close ally and against another country and another people who have said very clearly that they are not for sale,” she said.

On Monday, Fredriksen said: “If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops. That is, including our NATO and thus the security that has been provided since the end of the Second World War.” Today, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Denmark issued a statement of support for Greenland, Denmark, and NATO.

In Venezuela, the U.S. took Maduro and Flores but rather than supporting the actual winner of the 2024 presidential election, Edmundo González, or opposition leader María Corina Machado, the administration left the Maduro government in place, led by former vice president Delcy Rodríguez.

María Luisa Paúl reported in the Washington Post today that in the hours since Maduro’s removal, the Venezuelan government has cracked down on those showing support for the U.S. operation. It detained at least 14 journalists, sent armed gangs into the capital, restricted protests, and arrested citizens who appeared to be “involved in promoting or supporting the armed attack by the United States of America.”

Machado said the government’s actions are “really alarming.”

Trump claims that the U.S. is “running” Venezuela, and he has dropped the pretense that he is concerned about drug traffickers or Maduro’s seizure of the presidency. Instead, he has made it clear that what he really wants is for the Venezuelan government to give him access to the country’s oil. In much the same way as he claims Democrats were responsible for January 6 because they honored the will of the voters and refused to give him the second term he wanted, Trump maintains that Venezuelans “stole” the American oil that sits under their own land.

Trump’s plan to tear up the rules-based international order and replace it with U.S. control over the Western Hemisphere will cost the world dearly, but using the U.S. military to threaten other countries and seize control of their resources does create big winners:

This evening, Trump’s social media account posted: “I am pleased to announce that the interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America. This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States! I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan, immediately. It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.”

Notes:

https://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education-libertarian/

https://www.whitehouse.gov/j6/

https://www.businessinsider.com/capitol-riot-custodial-staff-cleanup-janitors-maga-trump-white-supremacists-2021-

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/05/us/politics/trump-us-disaster-numbers.html

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5672700-trump-venezuela-cuba-mexico-threats/

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/04/trump-denmark-greenland-frederiksen-venezuela.html

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/danish-prime-minister-us-takeover-greenland-mark-end-128924806

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/01/06/venezulea-maduro-rodriguez-government-repression/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/06/white-house-floats-military-option-greenland-rattling-denmark-nato/

https://time.com/archive/6847602/oil-venezuelas-own/

https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2025/12/26/the-theft-that-never-was-inside-venezuelas-1976-oil-takeover/

Bluesky:

chrisgeidner.bsky.social/post/3mbsd2onn6s2t

atrupar.com/post/3mbrbomjxnu2w

atrupar.com/post/3mbran2ykv52g

optimist-press.bsky.social/post/3mbrdg7i67k2n

atrupar.com/post/3mbrfdybhxj2l

meidastouch.com/post/3mbra343lt223

Share

Wednesday 7 January 1662/63

Up pretty early, that is by seven o’clock, it being not yet light before or then. So to my office all the morning, signing the Treasurer’s ledger, part of it where I have not put my hand, and then eat a mouthful of pye at home to stay my stomach, and so with Mr. Waith by water to Deptford, and there among other things viewed old pay-books, and found that the Commanders did never heretofore receive any pay for the rigging time, but only for seatime, contrary to what Sir J. Minnes and Sir W. Batten told the Duke the other day. I also searched all the ships in the Wett Dock for fire, and found all in good order, it being very dangerous for the King that so many of his ships lie together there. I was among the canvass in stores also, with Mr. Harris, the saylemaker, and learnt the difference between one sort and another, to my great content, and so by water home again, where my wife tells me stories how she hears that by Sarah’s going to live at Sir W. Pen’s, all our affairs of my family are made known and discoursed of there and theirs by my people, which do trouble me much, and I shall take a time to let Sir W. Pen know how he has dealt in taking her without our full consent. So to my office, and by and by home to supper, and so to prayers and bed.

Read the annotations

The Molly Cantillon manifesto, A Personal Panopticon

I find this piece significant, and think it is likely to be one of the most important essays of the year:

A few months ago, I started running my life out of Claude Code. Not out of intention to do so, it was just the place where everything met. And it just kept working. Empires are won by conquest. What keeps them standing is something much quieter. Before a king can tax, he must count. Before he can conscript, he must locate. Before he can rule, he must see. Legibility is the precondition for governance…

The first thing Claude solved was product blindness. NOX now runs on a cron job: pulling Amplitude, cross-referencing GitHub, and pointing me to what needs building. It handles A/B testing, generates winning copy, and has turned customer support into a fully autonomous department.

Once I saw this was possible, I chased it everywhere. Email, hitting inbox zero for the first time ever, with auto-drafted replies for everything inbound. Workouts, accommodating horrendously erratic travel schedules. Sleep, built a projector wired to my WHOOP after exactly six hours that wakes me with my favorite phrases. Subscriptions, found and returned $2000 I didn’t know I was paying. The dozen SFMTA citations I’d ignored, the action items I’d procrastinated into oblivion. People are using it to, I discovered, run vending machines, home automation systems, and keep plants alive.

The feeling is hard to name. It is the violent gap between how blind you were and how obvious everything feels now with an observer that reads all the feeds, catches what you’ve unconsciously dropped, notices patterns across domains you’d kept stubbornly separate, and—crucially—tells you what to do about it.

My personal finances are now managed in the terminal. Overnight it picks the locks of brokerages that refuse to talk to each other, pulls congressional and hedge fund disclosures, Polymarket odds, X sentiment, headlines and 10-Ks from my watchlist. Every morning, a brief gets added in ~/𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜. Last month it flagged Rep. Fields buying NFLX shares. Three weeks later, the Warner Bros deal. I don’t always trade, sometimes I argue with the thesis. But I’m never tracking fifteen tabs at 6am anymore.

It feels borderline unfair seeing around corners, being in ten places at once, surveilling yourself with the attention span of a thousand clones.

A panopticon still, but the tower belongs to you.

There is more at the link, or this link, and yes she is related to the 18th century Irish economist Richard Cantillon.

The post The Molly Cantillon manifesto, A Personal Panopticon appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Links 1/7/25

Links for you. Science:

An Engine of Fossil Discovery Fights Its Own Extinction
The Neglected Front in RFK Jr.’s War on Science
Balanced polymorphism in a floral transcription factor underlies an ancient rhythm of daily sex alternation in avocado
6 Otherworldly Deep-Sea Images from 2025
Trump comes for the oysters, slashing budget of Maryland hatchery that produces billions
‘It’s completely out of control’: Scientists warn bird flu could spark a human pandemic in 2026

Other:

“I’ve Never Seen So Many Police Cars”: Hiding out with an immigrant family in ICE-occupied Memphis. (excellent)
A Year In, the MAGA Labor Market Story Has Fallen Apart. The administration bet on government cuts, tariffs, deportations, and a gendered theory of growth. The data say otherwise. (“I wish I could tell you that the reason people in their twenties can’t find jobs and the reason many of us are likely to be poorer over the next few years was more sophisticated than “we’re going to turn all the girlbosses into tradwives once they see all the manly men at the USA iPhone-screwing factory.” But I don’t think it is.”)
US Trade Dominance Will Soon Begin to Crack. Savvy countries will discover there’s a way to mitigate the harm incurred by Trump’s tariffs—and it’ll boost their own economies while making goods cheaper too.
1 in 500 Alaskans died from COVID-19 during pandemic, state reports
The Signs of Cognitive Decline in Eleanor Holmes Norton
‘This is sickening’: Palm Beach reacts to BiCE manager at Alligator Alcatraz
Embarrassing
Trump Posts Nearly 150 Times in Unhinged Christmas Day Spree
Without pennies, should retailers round up or down? States offer their 2 cents.
2025 in Photos (D.C.)
Trump to Europe: Let every social media site spew Nazi trash—or else
Prosecuting ICE’s Goons Will Be Hard—but Not Impossible
The Executive Unbound: Politicized Bureaucracy and Partisan Procurement under DOGE
Gamers Are Extremely Mad About AI. In-game slop was bad enough. Now AI is driving up prices, too.
Kat Abughazaleh Thinks Campaign Funds Should Help Feed People
AI Is Inventing Academic Papers That Don’t Exist — And They’re Being Cited in Real Journals
Why Millennials Love Prenups. Long the province of the ultra-wealthy, prenuptial agreements are being embraced by young people—including many who don’t have all that much to divvy up.
I’m a veteran. Here’s why I voted against the defense authorization bill.
Exploring the Knives Out Universe. Are they just entertaining murder mysteries or something more?
Conservative movement apologizes to interfaith couples, won’t yet let clergy participate in weddings
Remembering Michele Reiner: Photographer, activist and ‘irate citizen’
Noise machines installed by LA Home Depot ‘torture’ for day laborers, advocates say
Did Kubrick Warn Us About Epstein With ‘Eyes Wide Shut’? (search for pattern where none exists, but fun to read)
They prosecuted the Capitol rioters. Now the rioters and the DOJ are after them.
Washington Post Says It Will Continue AI-Generating Error Filled Podcasts as Its Own Editors Groan in Embarrassment
Is Miami the key to solving homelessness, criminal justice issues in Salt Lake County?
Bondi attack is what happens when you normalise anti-Jewish hate
Rob Reiner, 1947–2025: One of the best and most versatile directors of his era.
ICE agents are staking out local courthouses. As they’ve roamed the halls, Mass. court arrests tripled
Arizona cancels medical debt for almost half-a-million residents

The Efficacy of Vaccines Is Settled Science

I don’t have much to add to the horrible decision by the Trump/Vought Administration and Plaguelord Kennedy to stop the CDC from recommending seven childhood vaccines, except to add one thing that I don’t think is said enough:

there are overwhelming data, both from clinical trials as well as the observational data from years, if not decades of vaccine use, that these vaccines are safe and also prevent massive amounts of disease and death.

Despite what anonymous CDC officials might claim, we do not need more investigation into their safety or efficacy. Sometimes, the science is settled, and this is one of those times. The effectiveness of the vaccines that Kennedy is undermining is not in doubt.

None of this needed to happen. Everyone who said there was no difference between the two parties didn’t think this was important (it was clear this would happen), along with everyone who voted for Trump. Unfortunately, the rest of us are left with their mess.

NASA weighs an earlier end to the Crew-11 mission after a ‘medical situation’ with an ISS crew member postpones first spacewalk of 2026

At center, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut and Expedition 74 Flight Engineer Kimiya Yui assists NASA astronauts Zena Cardman (left) and Mike Fincke (right), the station’s flight engineer and commander respectively, during spacesuit checks inside the International Space Station’s Quest airlock. Image: NASA

Update Jan. 8, 12:30 a.m. EST (0530 UTC): Adding new statement from NASA.

Update Jan. 7, 9:30 p.m. EST (0230 UTC): Added information about the ISS livestreams being taken offline.

NASA is weighing whether it may need to call for an earlier end the SpaceX Crew-11 mission on the International Space Station after a “medical situation” occurred on Wednesday.

The initial revelation, which was first described by the agency as a “medical concern,” caused NASA to announce on Wednesday evening that it was postponing the first spacewalk of 2026 from the ISS. Two NASA astronauts had been scheduled to venture outside the station on Thursday morning.

“Safely conducting our missions is our highest priority, and we are actively evaluating all options, including the possibility of an earlier end to Crew-11’s mission,” NASA said shortly after midnight on Thursday. “These are the situations NASA and our partners train for and prepare to execute safely. We will provide further updates within the next 24 hours.”

The next planned flight to the ISS is the SpaceX Crew-12 mission, which is currently slated to launch no earlier than Feb. 15, 2026. It’s unclear if NASA would try to work with SpaceX and the other international partners and move up the launch of that Dragon spacecraft or even how much latitude would be available at this point in time.

The overnight statement came several hours after NASA first announced the medical issue with an ISS crew member. NASA said that the issue involves a “single crew member who is stable,” but as per typical policy, it didn’t disclose further details or the identity of the crew member.

NASA said it would share additional details, including a new date for the spacewalk at a later time. Roughly an hour before making its initial announcement, the agency also took offline its two ISS live feeds, which include air to ground communications audio.

Astronauts Mike Fincke and Zena Cardman were to have spent about 6.5 hours outside the space station on a roughly 6.5 hour extravehicular activity (EVA), designated U.S. spacewalk 94. Fincke was to become just the sixth U.S. astronaut to perform a total of 10 spacewalks.

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) astronaut Kimiya Yui and NASA astronaut Chris Williams were to help get Fincke and Cardman into their space suits.

During a briefing on Tuesday, NASA officials outlined the upcoming work for this and another EVA, U.S. spacewalk 95. For this first outing, Fincke and Cardman were to prepare the station’s 2A power channel for the future installation of the final pair of ISS Roll-Out Solar Arrays (iROSAs), scheduled for launch to the station sometime in 2026.

“Once this mod kit is complete, we have one more to do. So we’ll look at —- we’re looking for a a time, maybe in the spring, but we’re not exactly sure yet where that’s going to fit to finish the last mod kit,” said Bill Spetch, operations integration manager for NASA’s ISS Program. “It is on orbit, waiting to be installed. We just have to go out there and install it. And then we’ll bring up the two remaining iROSAs together. They fly in a configuration that stacks together in one Dragon trunk.”

Before returning to the Quest airlock, the duo were to swab five locations around the airlock for a study designed to detect the presence of microorganisms.

“Previously, we had sampled some other vent locations. They’re looking for locations that are nearby, where we have traffic and atmosphere leaving the ISS and looking in those areas,” Spetch said.

NASA astronaut and Expedition 74 Flight Engineer Zena Cardman is pictured in her pressurized spacesuit, checking its communication and power systems ahead of a spacewalk initially planned for Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. At upper right, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut and Flight Engineer Kimiya Yui assists Cardman as she tests the operations of her spacesuit inside the International Space Station’s Quest airlock. Image: NASA

U.S. spacewalk 95 will see two NASA astronauts (who haven’t been publicly named) replace a high-definition camera near port 3; install a new navigational aid called a planar reflector on the Harmony module’s forward port; and finally, relocate an ammonia service jumper, along with other jumpers, which are flexible hoses that connect parts of a fluid system on the ISS’ S4 and S6 truss.

“The jumpers that we’re doing have been ‘get ahead’ tasks for a long time. They add redundancy to our system so that we can recover activities quicker across our primary power system,” Spetch said. “Each channel is kind of separate in how it operates and these allow us to cross-tie some of the systems within those channels to keep them operating.

“In case of failure cases, it’s obviously more desired in a case where, once I get to the point where ISS has been de-crewed for the final deorbit, but it still helps us out today.”

EVA 95 was scheduled for Jan. 15, a day before NASA aims to have a SpaceX Cargo Dragon spacecraft perform its last scheduled boost of the station, part of work to prepare for the station’s end of life in about five years.

That Dragon spacecraft, which launched on the CRS-33 mission on Aug. 24, 2025, is slated to undock from the ISS on Jan. 21, followed by the unberthing of Japan’s HTV-X cargo vehicle on Jan. 27 and release on Jan. 28. With the spacewalk delay, it’s now unclear if NASA will have time to perform one or both of the spacewalks before those vehicles need to depart.

And if Crew-11 does indeed end earlier than originally planned, it may necessitate additional station schedule shifts, including EVA 94 and EVA 95.

Who gets an “RIP” on Marginal Revolution?

A few of you have been asking me this.  The core standards are as follows:

1. Most notable figures in economics.  MR has many economist readers, and these deaths are not usually well-publicized by mainstream media.

2. A cultural figure I feel more of you should know about.  Various figures from say African music or foreign cinema might be examples here.

3. A person who, if even at a distance, has played some special role in my life.

Someone who would not get a mention would be, for instance, a leading footballer.  I figure any of you who care already will be hearing about the death.

I also discriminate against suicides, as I consider suicide both a sin and as having (in most cases) high negative externalities on others.  I am not so inclined to honor or glorify those who have killed themselves.

The post Who gets an “RIP” on Marginal Revolution? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Superstition

It's important to teach yourself to feel responsible for random events, because with great responsibility comes great power. That's what my wise Uncle Ben told me right before he died; he might still be alive today if only I'd said rabbit rabbit that year!

A group of students at a New Mexico college (mostly) gave up their phones & computers for a week. What did they learn? “Most students said they had gotten to know themselves better without their phones butting in all day long.”

💬 Join the discussion on kottke.org

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

A brief excerpt:
Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995. It will be close! Even if sales beat 2024 sales, these will be the two lowest sales years since 1995. Sales will be worse than any year during the housing bust.

Most readers probably don’t remember 1995, but I do! If I went to an open house ‘95, I was frequently the only person to visit all day. Just me and the crickets.

December sales will be mostly for contracts signed in October and November, and mortgage rates averaged 6.25% in October and 6.24% in November (lower than for closed sales in November). ...

Closed Existing Home SalesIn December, sales in these early reporting markets were up 2.5% YoY. Last month, in November, these same markets were down 10.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one more working days in December 2025 (22) as in December 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be less than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!
There is much more in the article.

Unit testing your code's performance, part 1: Big-O scaling

When you implement an algorithm, you also implement tests to make sure the outputs are correct. This can help you:

  • Ensure your code is correct.
  • Catch problems if and when you change it in the future.

If you’re trying to make sure your software is fast, or at least doesn’t get slower, automated tests for performance would also be useful. But where should you start?

My suggestion: start by testing big-O scaling. It’s a critical aspect of your software’s speed, and it doesn’t require a complex benchmarking setup. In this article I’ll cover:

  • A reminder of what big-O scaling means for algorithms.
  • Why this is such a critical performance property.
  • Identifying your algorithm’s scalability, including empirically with the bigO library.
  • Using the bigO library to test your Python code’s big-O scalability.
Read more...

Wednesday assorted links

1. Under Australia’s social media ban, it will be harder for museums to reach young audiences.

2. The influence of Claremont Institute fellows.

3. Poem written by an LLM.

4. The philosophy of Solvej Balle.

5. “Persuasion of humans in the bottleneck.”

6. Scott Sumner movie reviews.  And more.

7. Bela Tarr, RIP (NYT).

8. David Zipper says “Europe Doesn’t Need Driverless Cars.” (FT)

9. Roger Guesnerie, RIP.

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

Five Years After January 6, Dozens of Pardoned Insurrectionists Have Been Arrested Again

19th News Logo

The charges range from possession of child pornography to sexual assault, child molestation and aggravated kidnapping.

When President Donald Trump on the first day of his second term granted clemency to nearly 1,600 people convicted in connection with the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, Linnaea Honl-Stuenkel immediately set up a Google Alert to track these individuals and see if they’d end up back in the criminal justice system. Honl-Stuenkel, who works at a government watchdog nonprofit, said she didn’t want people to forget the horror of that day — despite the president’s insistence that it was a nonviolent event, a “day of love.”

Honl-Stuenkel, the digital director at Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics (CREW) in Washington, D.C., said the Google Alerts came quickly.

…at least 33 insurrectionists who have been rearrested, charged or sentenced for other crimes since January 6, 2021.

The list eventually became a more formal report, published in December, that identified at least 33 insurrectionists who have been rearrested, charged or sentenced for other crimes since January 6, 2021. The charges range from possession of child pornography to sexual assault, child molestation and aggravated kidnapping. Many incidents occurred before the pardons; only four insurrectionists allegedly reoffended since receiving their pardons.

“I found it really disturbing that the pardons put people on the street again who had been held to account,” Honl-Stuenkel said. “All that was swept away with the stroke of a pen. And that has consequences mostly for the women and children in the orbit of these insurrectionists.”

At least six of the pardoned insurrectionists are charged with committing child sex crimes; five were charged with illegal possession of weapons, including two who had previous domestic violence convictions; and two were charged with rape. Among them were John Daniel Andries, a man in Maryland who was sentenced to 60 days in jail in June 2025 after repeatedly violating a peace order, similar to a restraining order, submitted by the mother of his child.

“I was surprised honestly by how fast it all added up,” Honl-Stuenkel said. “I would have thought that people might take this as a chance to reform, but it was demoralizing to get deep in the weeds and see a level of seriousness to these crimes. It really hit home how dangerous the pardons are and the overlap of those committing serious crimes and being at January 6 — it is pretty staggering to me.”

Honl-Stuenkel said it’s likely the number is bigger than 33. The small team of researchers at CREW relied heavily on local news coverage that mentioned defendants who were tied to January 6.

Honl-Stuenkel said she worries that the pardons embolden people to commit more crimes or make people believe they won’t face any consequences as “long as what they do is in service of Trump’s aims.”

There are two versions of January 6: one pushed by the president, in which peaceful patriots and heroes were wrongfully treated, and a more violent one, portrayed by thousands of videos taken that day by insurrectionists themselves. Witnesses that day, including women serving in Congress, recall the terror, running for their lives and calling their loved ones to say goodbye.

On the campaign trail, Trump referred to those involved with the Capitol riot as “unbelievable patriots” and promised to help them. Shortly after granting them clemency, Trump told reporters on Air Force Once: “What I did was a great thing for humanity. They were treated very, very unfairly.”

Trump’s pardons and commutations largely undo the results of one of the largest criminal probes in U.S. history. The Department of Justice also conducted an investigation that involved over 5,000 federal agents and led to thousands of charges.

The blanket clemency for the Capitol attack and the president’s unwillingness to hold violent actors accountable set a precedent that increases the risk of future political violence — felt most acutely by women. According to a recent survey conducted by the Bridging Divides Initiative at Princeton University, women in local offices reported large increases in hostility in the third quarter of 2025. About 83 percent of women officials — up from 71 percent in the previous quarter — said they were less likely to engage in political or civic activity due to insults, harassment and physical threats.

Shannon Hiller, the executive director of the Bridging Divides Initiative, said she spent the first half of her career working with other countries on how to emerge from conflict. She learned that to build a durable peace and move forward from violence, there has to be an agreement on the basic details of what happened.

“The president’s continued insistence on spreading false narratives about January 6 over the past year — including about very real violence and threats that day — suggest that we are moving even further away from that shared understanding,” said Hiller, who is also a security fellow at the Truman National Security Project.

On the fifth anniversary of the Capitol riot, Trump supporters held a memorial march in Washington, D.C., to honor Ashli Babbitt, a 35-year-old veteran who was the sole rioter killed by police that day. She was shot as she tried to enter the area outside the House chamber, where many members of Congress were, and has since been portrayed as a martyr among Trump supporters. The former leader of the Proud Boys and other pardoned insurrectionists were in attendance at Tuesday’s march.

Susan Benesch, a faculty associate of the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University, said that many of Trump’s supporters — beyond just those who were pardoned — saw the pardons as a victory. It’s important for democracy that Americans work to get back to a shared version of reality, which involves continued communication between the two sides.

“The president depicts himself as politically persecuted,” Benesch said. “And for many people who voted for him, his second term is a marvelous triumph because he was persecuted by his political opponents and now he has managed to overcome that and be restored.”

This article was originally published by The 19th on January 6, 2026.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

The post Five Years After January 6, Dozens of Pardoned Insurrectionists Have Been Arrested Again appeared first on DCReport.org.

BLS: Job Openings Declined to 7.1 million in November

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
emphasis added
The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November; the employment report to be released on Friday will be for December.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in November to 7.15 million from 7.45 million in October.

The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. 

Quits were up 4% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

The Wegman’s Supermarket Chain Is Probably Using Facial Recognition

The New York City Wegman’s is collecting biometric information about customers.

ISM® Services Index Increased to 54.4% in December

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4% December 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report
Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee:

“In December, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 54.4 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than the November figure of 52.6 percent and a third consecutive month of expansion. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in December, registering 56 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 54.5 percent recorded in November. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in December, with a reading of 57.9 percent, 5 percentage points above November’s figure of 52.9 percent. The Employment Index expanded for the first time in seven months with a reading of 52 percent, a 3.1-percentage point improvement from the 48.9 percent recorded in November — the fifth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.8 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 54.1 percent recorded in November. This is the 13th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 64.3 percent in December, its lowest level since a reading of 60.9 percent in March 2025. The December figure was a 1.1-percentage point drop from November’s reading of 65.4 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 13 straight months.br /> emphasis added
Employment expanded following six consecutive month of contraction.

Howard Oakley on the MacOS 26 Tahoe UI

Howard Oakley, writing at The Eclectic Light Company

macOS Tahoe’s visual interface:

  • Fits largely rectangular contents into windows with excessively rounded corners.
  • Enlarges controls without any functional benefit.
  • Results in app icons being more uniform, thus less distinguishable and memorable.
  • Fails to distinguish tools, controls and other interface elements using differences in tone, so making them harder to use.
  • Makes a mess where transparent layers are superimposed, and won’t reduce transparency when that’s needed to render its interface more accessible.

Maybe this is because I’m getting older, but that gives me the benefit of having experienced Apple’s older interfaces, with their exceptional quality and functionality.

It’s just remarkable how much better-looking MacOS was 10 years ago, compared to MacOS 26 Tahoe at its best. And it’s equally remarkable just how bad MacOS 26 Tahoe looks in many typical, non-contrived situations, where entire menus or the title of a window are rendered completely illegible.

 ★ 

ADP: Private Employment Increased 41,000 in December

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%
“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of 50,000 jobs added. The BLS will report on Friday, and the consensus is for 55,000 jobs added.

John Henry Kagel (1942-2026), an incomparable experimental economist

 John Kagel will be buried this morning,  January 7, at  New Tifereth Israel Cemetery in Columbus, Ohio. He passed away yesterday.  I don't know the details, but my sense is that he hadn't been well for a while. He was 83.

In his prime, John was the best experimental economist in the world.

He was also my friend, colleague, coauthor, co-editor, and all-around mensch and role model. He was full of life.  

Words fail. 

Here's his Google scholar page. 

In 2023 the journal Experimental Economics had a special issue in John's honor: here's the Introduction

May his memory be a blessing. 

ICE Raids Drive Cancellation of Hispanic Events as ‘Deportation Terror’ Spreads

Numerous Hispanic culture and heritage events across the United States have been cancelled in recent months due to fears of ICE raids and ambushes.

These events, many of which were in celebration of National Hispanic Heritage Month, which ran from mid-September through mid-October, and Mexican Independence Day on September 15 and 16, were previously opportunities for residents to celebrate the history, traditions and cultural diversity of Hispanic Americans. But with the recent expansion and mobilization of ICE under the second Trump administration, townships and community organizers predicted that attendees, whether or not they are undocumented, would be targeted and arrested by ICE agents. Experts said that this pattern is a response to a new iteration of the “deportation terror” and commended the decision to cancel the festivals.

The City of Everett, Massachusetts, for example, revealed in a post that it cancelled its Fiesta del Rio planned for September 20.

“With the recent ICE raids in our region, many of our friends and neighbors are feeling fear and uncertainty,” read the post. “We believe it would not be right to hold a celebration at a time when members of our community may not feel safe attending.”

The Hispanic Heritage Festival in Wheaton, Maryland, El Grito Chicago and Tacos y Tequila Festival in Spokane, Washington, were also cancelled due to worries that ICE agents would show up.

Most recently, the Milpas Street Holiday Parade, scheduled for December 13 in Santa Barbara and El Carnaval de Puebla, an event in Philadelphia, were also axed in December, due to similar concerns.

Rachel Ida Buff, an immigration historian at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, said the deportation terror is a term used in scholarship to describe the large-scale utilization of deportations and raids by the federal government to control immigrant communities.

For undocumented immigrants, the typical target of current ICE operations in the United States, “that amount of pressure is incredible… to have to live with when they’re just conducting the activities of daily life,” Buff said. “There are many U.S. citizen children that have psychological dread of coming home from school because they’re afraid their parents won’t be there. That’s why we call that terror.”

Masked ICE agents
Federal agents and law enforcement conduct a raid on street vendors during rush hour on October 21, 2025 in New York City. Photo by Michael Nigro/Sipa USA, Sipa via AP Images

In her 2008 essay “The Deportation Terror” in which Buff coins the term, she traces back to the targeted deportation of Mexican immigrants during the Great Depression and leftists during Cold War-era McCarthyism. Buff said that the usage of the word “terror” has since been obscured by politicians and media organizations.

“I thought that was really an important phrase to rescue because these days, terror is usually used as an Islamophobic phrase to justify national security,” Buff said, “and I think that that phrase was and is descriptive of the experience of immigrant communities.”

The modern deportation terror has been used as a fear tactic by the Trump administration to scapegoat immigrants as the cause of poor economic conditions, Buff said. Anti-migrant rhetoric became central to right-wing political messaging in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan’s presidency when an influx of Hispanic immigrants entered the United States to flee authoritarian regimes in South and Central America. Instead of pointing fingers at the dictators and the funding they were receiving from the United States, the news media instead shifted the blame by erroneously labeling the refugees as criminals and murderers, Buff said.
“Anytime there’s a substantive issue, like eggs are still really expensive, or people can’t afford groceries, they just blame the ‘illegals,’” Buff said. “That’s a really handy trope. It’s really powerful and it shuts a lot of other things up.”

The deportation terror manifests as a domestic control apparatus, preventing immigrant communities from engaging in civil society in a comfortable fashion. Neighborhoods home to large populations of immigrants are quiet, with residents afraid to run errands, take their children to school or congregate in large groups to celebrate their community, Buff said.

As a fun and uniting force, cultural events have historically been practiced by minority groups around the U.S. for attendees to bond over shared heritage. “Weirdly, I think it’s very American to want to celebrate your not-American heritage,” Buff said.

The cancellation of Latinx cultural events, although ultimately a safeguard for those subject to the immense scrutiny of the Trump administration, forced said individuals to conceal their identity and pride. With festivities subsidized primarily by local businesses, the events serve as a form of “ethnic capital,” Buff said.
As a representation of tradition and culture, the celebrations operated as a safe but familiar space for the undocumented population. “This is the upper mobility, the American dream, that you own a restaurant, you own a store,” Buff said. “If those people get forced out because they cannot celebrate their heritage… This country is going to look really different.”

Puerto Rican musician Bad Bunny, one of the most streamed artists in the world, did not include the U.S. in his “Debí tirar más fotos World Tour” due to similar fears of the events being compromised by ICE raids.

Catalina Amuedo Dorantes, a professor of economics at University of California Merced, discovered while co-authoring her 2021 book “De Facto Immigration Enforcement, ICE Raid Awareness, and Worker Engagement” that the deportation terror has an adverse effect on not just immigrant communities, but the economy at large. The prevalence of ICE raids has contributed to a significant drop of Hispanic participation, especially Hispanic women, in the labor force, most notably agriculture and construction industries.

Dorantes said, however, that while the cancellation of Hispanic heritage events will also force culture to be celebrated in the shadows, community ties have likely only grown stronger.

“If the goal [of ICE] is to really obscure it, it’s actually probably achieving the opposite, ironically,” Dorantes said. “The more that you force people to have to hide something, the more attached they become to it.”

Ali Sanchez, the executive director for Casa Latino’s Unidos, a non-profit organization based in Oregon that is “committed to strengthening the Latinx communities in Linn and Benton Counties” according to the Casa Latinos Unidos website, said that she had a shift in perspective over the event cancellations.

“I was of the impression that business must go on and people should make informed decisions about what they do,” Sanchez said, but added that ultimately the decisions to cancel were an important measure to protect the undocumented population.

Sanchez added that her experience working at the non-profit has grown increasingly difficult since she took the title in 2018 under Trump’s first administration. “The first Trump administration didn’t cause as much terror,” Sanchez said. “People trusted the organization’s name [and] people trusted that they could still have Medicaid.”

But in 2025, she now relies on partners, primarily white non-profit organizations, to fundraise for them. Those for whom she advocates are hesitant to apply for Medicaid since it requires them to send their information to the federal government. Sanchez and her staff are also reluctant to speak to members of the press or attend public meetings.

“None of us would feel comfortable coming to speak at a public [event] because we’re living in fear, regardless of our citizenship status,” Sanchez said.

As Sanchez suggested, the modern deportation terror has extended to afflict those with legal permission to reside in the United States, such as Mahmoud Khalil and Kilmar Abrego Garcia. The Supreme Court sanctified this behavior Sept. 8 with its 6-3 ruling of Noem v. Vasquez Perdomo, allowing ICE agents to detain an individual if they have “a reasonable suspicion, based on specific articulable facts, that the person being questioned… is an alien illegally in the United States,” including Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, recipients.

Due to ICE’s non-discriminatory detention practices, the cancellation of these heritage events was a measure to protect not just undocumented migrants, but also Hispanic residents with lawful permission to reside in the United States. “[ICE will] take you if you’re a citizen, they’ll take you if you’re a legal resident, they’ll take you if you’re in proceedings for asylum,” Buff said.

Ruben Martinez, a professor of sociology at Michigan State University, clarified that even those who are crossing the border illegally are committing a civil infraction, not a criminal one. Martinez added that the utilization of violence and lack of due process is wholly unconstitutional and serves as a smokescreen to prepare for a declaration of martial law.

“[ICE is] not going after the hardened criminals. They’re dragging kids out of their beds at midnight and into the street, which is not exactly something that aligns with what they tell the public they’re doing,” Martinez said. “It’s cultural terror. It’s a repression, not only of cultural gatherings and celebration, but it affects even those who are citizens.”

Buff said that although it was a sound decision to cancel these Hispanic heritage events, there were additional measures that should have been implemented to protect the physical safety of Hispanic residents, namely the establishment of ICE-free zones. As an example, Buff cited the Milwaukee Public Schools: Safe Haven Resolution, which designates public schools as a safe haven for all students and families regardless of immigration status.

Another step that Buff endorsed was taken by Milwaukee Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression, a non-profit organization that stayed mobile and made food and beverage deliveries to avoid excessive congregations.

“I think sometimes cancelling events can be protective, but also there are other ways of being protective and being proactive,” Buff said.

Ultimately, however, resistance falls mainly into the hands of those who are afflicted.

“I think the resilience of immigrant communities is one of the most inspiring things that I learned historically and currently,” Buff said. “They are incredibly brave. It’s been true for as long as there has been the deportation terror that there have been just amazing attempts to resist it.”

This article is part of our ongoing mentoring program for young and/or emerging journalists. It’s our effort to provide a voice to those faced with increasingly diminished opportunities to write about the issues facing communities locally and nationwide. Please consider supporting this effort with a tax deductible donation today. 


PLEASE CONSIDER A DONATION TO HELP UP PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUNG JOURNALISTS LIKE AUDEN OAKES

The post ICE Raids Drive Cancellation of Hispanic Events as ‘Deportation Terror’ Spreads appeared first on DCReport.org.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period

From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2026. The results include an adjustment for the holidays.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 28 percent compared with two weeks ago. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from two weeks ago and was 133 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 31 percent from two weeks ago and was 108 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from two weeks earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 23 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates started the New Year with a decline to 6.25 percent, the lowest level since September 2024. Refinance applications were up 7 percent for the week but were at a slower pace than in the weeks leading up to the holidays,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA refinance applications saw a 19 percent increase, although that was a partial rebound from a drop the week before. MBA continues to expect mortgage rates to stay around current levels, with spells of refinance opportunities in the weeks when rates move lower.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were 10 percent higher than the same week a year ago but were down over the week following decreases in conventional and FHA applications. The average loan size was $408,700, the smallest in a year, driven by lower average loan sizes across both conventional and government loan types.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.25 percent from 6.32 percent, with points decreasing to 0.57 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Purchase Index Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 10% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

Mortgage Refinance Index
The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September as rates moved sideways.

NASA works to extend Swift’s life ahead of reboost mission

Swift

As preparations continue for a mission to raise the orbit of NASA’s Swift astrophysics spacecraft, project officials are also pursuing steps to extend the satellite’s life in case of delays.

The post NASA works to extend Swift’s life ahead of reboost mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Promoting AI agents

At the end of last year, AI agents really came alive for me. Partly because the models got better, but more so because we gave them the tools to take their capacity beyond pure reasoning. Now coding agents are controlling the terminal, running tests to validate their work, searching the web for documentation, and using web services with skills we taught them in plain English. Reality is fast catching the hype!

This is all very evident if you've tried to employ any of the new models — especially Claude Opus 4.5, Codex 5, Gemini 3, and even the Chinese open-weight models like MiniMax M2.1 and GLM-4.7 — in one of the modern terminal harnesses that give them access to all these autonomous powers. The code being produced by this new breed of AI is leagues ahead of where their predecessors were at the beginning of 2025.

I've thoroughly enjoyed putting them all to work in OpenCode, which is a terminal interface for coding agents that allows you to seamlessly switch between all of the models, capture your sessions for sharing, and simply looks astounding when theme-matched with the rest of Omarchy (where we're making it a default in the next version!).

See, I never really cared much for the in-editor experience of having AI autocomplete your code as you were writing it. That was the original format pioneered by GitHub's Copilot and Cursor, but it left me cold. When I code, I want to finish my own thoughts and sentences. That was the sentiment I expressed on the Lex Fridman podcast last summer.

But with these autonomous agents, the experience is very different. It's more like working on a team and less like working with an overly-zealous pair programmer who can't stop stealing the keyboard to complete the code you were in the middle of writing. With a team of agents, they're doing their work autonomously, and I just review the final outcome, offer guidance when asked, and marvel at how this is possible at all.

Yes, I'm ready to give the current crop of AI agents a promotion. They're no longer just here to help me learn, answer my questions, or check my work. They're fully capable of producing production-grade contributions to real-life code bases. 

Yet pure vibe coding remains an aspirational dream for professional work for me, for now. Supervised collaboration, though, is here today. I've worked alongside agents to fix small bugs, finish substantial features, and get several drafts on major new initiatives. The paradigm shift finally feels real.

Now, it all depends on what you're working on, and what your expectations are. The hype train keeps accelerating, and if you bought the pitch that we're five minutes away from putting all professional programmers out of a job, you'll be disappointed.

I'm nowhere close to the claims of having agents write 90%+ of the code, as I see some boast about online. I don't know what code they're writing to hit those rates, but that's way off what I'm able to achieve, if I hold the line on quality and cohesion.

But I'll forgive folks for getting excited! Because you don't have to connect many future dots on the current trend line to get dizzy by the prospects. The leaps of improvement that AI agents took in 2025 is simply incredible. This is the most exciting thing we've made computers do since we connected them to the internet back in the '90s. So what might things look like in 2026 or 2027? I get the exuberance.

I also get that some programmers are eager to tune it all out. The hype drones on relentlessly, the most fantastical claims are still far off from being substantiated, and there's real uncertainty about where all this will leave the profession in the future. But that's still not reason enough to miss out on this incredible moment in human and computing history! 

You gotta get in there. See where we're at now for yourself. Download OpenCode, throw some real work at Opus or the others, and relish the privilege of being alive during the days we taught the machines how to think.

A final remark on AGI and taxation

I’ve noted repeatedly in the past that the notion of AGI, as it is batted around these days, is not so well-defined.  But that said, just imagine that any meaningful version of AGI is going to contain the concept “a lot more stuff gets produced.”

So say AGI comes along, what does that mean for taxation?  There have been all these recent debates, some of them surveyed here, on labor, capital, perfect substitutability, and so on.  But surely the most important first order answer is: “With AGI, we don’t need to raise taxes!”

Because otherwise we do need to raise taxes, given the state of American indebtedness, even with significant cuts to the trajectory of spending.

So the AGI types should in fact be going further and calling for tax cuts.  Even if you think AGI is going to do us all in someday — all the more reason to have more consumption now.  Of course that will include tax cuts for the rich, since they pay such a large share of America’s tax burden.  (Effective Altruists, are you listening?”)

The rest of us can be more circumspect, and say “let’s wait and see.”

The post A final remark on AGI and taxation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Quoting Robin Sloan

AGI is here! When exactly it arrived, we’ll never know; whether it was one company’s Pro or another company’s Pro Max (Eddie Bauer Edition) that tip-toed first across the line … you may debate. But generality has been achieved, & now we can proceed to new questions. [...]

The key word in Artificial General Intelligence is General. That’s the word that makes this AI unlike every other AI: because every other AI was trained for a particular purpose. Consider landmark models across the decades: the Mark I Perceptron, LeNet, AlexNet, AlphaGo, AlphaFold … these systems were all different, but all alike in this way.

Language models were trained for a purpose, too … but, surprise: the mechanism & scale of that training did something new: opened a wormhole, through which a vast field of action & response could be reached. Towering libraries of human writing, drawn together across time & space, all the dumb reasons for it … that’s rich fuel, if you can hold it all in your head.

Robin Sloan, AGI is here (and I feel fine)

Tags: robin-sloan, llms, ai, generative-ai

Yes, Western Europe will survive recent waves of migration

Over 1.2mn people came to the EU seeking protection in 2015, many displaced by worsening conflict in Syria. There were bitter political feuds in Brussels over asylum, border and relocation policies. January 2016 set a grim record for the number of migrants dying while attempting to cross the Mediterranean.

Now things have changed, as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen made clear in December when she took the stage at a conference on migrant smuggling. After a major policy overhaul over the past two years, “Europe is managing migration responsibly,” she said. “The figures speak for themselves.”

Irregular arrivals of migrants to the EU recorded by its border agency Frontex dropped by 25 per cent in the 11 months to November 2024, and have been continuously declining since a recent peak of 380,000 arrivals registered in 2023.

New asylum applications have also decreased by around 26 per cent in the first nine months of last year, according to Eurostat data, as fewer Syrians are applying for protection since the fall of the authoritarian regime of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024.

Here is much more from Laura Dubois from the FT.

The post Yes, Western Europe will survive recent waves of migration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Wednesday: ADP Employment, Job Openings, ISM Services

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 50,000, up from -32,000 jobs added in November.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for December.

IC 342: Hidden Galaxy in Camelopardalis

Similar in size to large, bright spiral galaxies in our neighborhood, Similar in size to large, bright spiral galaxies in our neighborhood,


Tracking Two Storms Impacting the Central and Eastern U.S. Through This Weekend