Donald Trump’s great Venezuelan oil gamble

The country has the world’s largest petroleum reserves. Getting them out of the ground will be tortuous

Africa possibility of the day

Call it a statistical quirk if you must. But this year, with a bit of luck, Africa will grow faster than Asia. If the 54 African economies manage to outpace their Asian counterparts, it would be the first time in modern history that this has happened.

To achieve it, African economies will need to grow marginally faster on average than they did last year. In 2025, despite war in Sudan, insurgency in the Sahel and coups in Madagascar and Guinea Bissau, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have mustered growth of about 4.1 per cent. The IMF expects this to notch up to 4.4 per cent as economies continue to reap the benefits of a weak dollar — good for cutting debt-service payments and easing inflationary pressure — and of high commodity prices, including for gold and copper.

At the same time, the IMF is predicting that, as the Chinese motor whirrs more slowly, the combined economies of Asia will slow in 2026 to around 4.1 per cent.

Here is more from David Pilling at the FT.

The post Africa possibility of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Helping people write code again

Something I like about our weird new LLM-assisted world is the number of people I know who are coding again, having mostly stopped as they moved into management roles or lost their personal side project time to becoming parents.

AI assistance means you can get something useful done in half an hour, or even while you are doing other stuff. You don't need to carve out 2-4 hours to ramp up anymore.

If you have significant previous coding experience - even if it's a few years stale - you can drive these things really effectively. Especially if you have management experience, quite a lot of which transfers to "managing" coding agents - communicate clearly, set achievable goals, provide all relevant context. Here's a relevant recent tweet from Ethan Mollick:

When you see how people use Claude Code/Codex/etc it becomes clear that managing agents is really a management problem

Can you specify goals? Can you provide context? Can you divide up tasks? Can you give feedback?

These are teachable skills. Also UIs need to support management

This note started as a comment.

Tags: careers, ai-agents, ai, llms, ethan-mollick, ai-assisted-programming, coding-agents, generative-ai

Are you a neoconservative?

I am very aware of how people think of terms like neoliberalism and neoconservatism:

“Neoliberalism, isn’t that like screwing the poor?”

“Neoconservatism, isn’t that like the Iraq War?”

Both terms are widely used as derogatory epithets.

I prefer to think of these concepts as policy regimes. For me, neoliberalism is free markets plus social insurance—an economy like Denmark. For me, neoconservatism is the forceful use of the US military to achieve various nation-building objectives.

If you don’t like these definitions, that’s fine. Go someplace else and comment, I’m not interested in your definition. I get bored debating terminology—I’d rather debate ideas.

This post is not going to discuss neoliberalism, as I’ve already done many posts defending that ideology. Instead, I’ll use this post to argue that neoconservatism is not necessarily what you think. I don’t like neoconservatism, but not for the same reason that most other people don’t like neoconservatism. Instead, I’ll suggest that we need to spend more time thinking in terms of policy regimes, and less time focusing on individual examples of neoconservatism in action.

Before considering neoconservatism, let’s consider a few other cases where failing to think in terms of policy regimes can lead people astray.

  1. Banking Regulation

Bank in 2008, we were bombarded with stories about how the banking crisis was caused by “deregulation”, and that the solution was more regulation. I never bought that explanation, but I was in the minority. The truth is that banks were still highly regulated in 2007. More importantly, regulators were pressuring banks to make more high-risk loans to low-income borrowers. In that case does “more regulation” mean even more pressure to do high risk lending?

Supporters of bank regulation will respond that they wanted more restrictive regulation, not more regulatory pressure to lend. Monday morning quarterbacking is so easy. They fail to understand that many years ago when the regulatory system was first set up, there was no set of magic buttons to choose from, one saying “good regulation” and the other saying “bad regulation”. When you opt for regulation, you get whatever the political system dictates. And political systems generally have a bias toward easy credit. (Although Kevin Erdmann makes a strong argument that we overcorrected to tight credit after 2008.)

Don’t believe me? We are now 17 years past the crisis and our political system is moving back toward an emphasis on easier credit. If you really believe that “deregulation” caused the 2008 crash, you should probably be predicting another crash. This is especially so because we also have the same unusually high housing prices that we had in 2006. The fact that very few people are predicting a crash is a tacit admission that I was probably correct; deregulation and a housing price bubble did not cause the 2008 recession. (Tight money did.) I see very few news stories saying, “Trump is bringing back the banking policies that caused the 2008 crash.”

  1. Monetary policy

Monetary policy is one of the best examples of where people think too much in terms of specific actions, and too little in terms of policy regimes. “Should interest rates have been higher or lower in 2023?” is not even a meaningful question. What sort of policy regime are you assuming? In terms of the actual policies being implemented by the Fed, interest rates appear to have been too low during the early 2020s. Policy was too expansionary. But if the Fed had done what it promised, if it had actually implemented a regime of “flexible average inflation targeting” at 2%, then inflation would have been far lower during the early 2020s, and by 2023 interest rates would have been lower than they actually were at that time. The question “What should the Fed do now?” has no meaning except in regard to a well specified policy regime.

People make a similar mistake when they assume that central banks monetize the debt with low-interest rate policies. If the Fed intends to monetize the debt, that means much higher inflation and much higher interest rates. Saying “Kevin Hassett is a low-interest rate guy” is a meaningless statement. Are you saying he’s an easy money guy or a tight money guy? If he’s an easy money guy then he’s not a low-interest rate guy. Biden was an easy money guy, and his policies (including pressure on Powell) generated higher inflation and sharply rising interest rates in 2022-23.

In the late 1960s, the Fed adopted a series of gestures aimed at creating high employment. Decisions were made year-by-year, with no coherent framework for long run goals. This discretionary policy led to ever increasing inflation that by the early 1980s had driven the economy into a ditch. Ignore the policy regime question at your peril.

  1. Law enforcement

Some people say the government should assassinate suspected drug dealers, a policy pioneered by the Filipinos back in the 2010s. Unfortunately, there is no magic “assassinate drug dealer” button to push, all we have is “assassinate suspected drug dealers” and “don’t assassinate suspected drug dealers” buttons. America’s founders understood this dilemma and instituted a policy regime of trial by jury to ascertain the guilt or innocence of criminal suspects. They understood that it was dangerous to assassinate suspects on a case-by-case basis, that this was a policy likely to lead to abuse.

[BTW, America’s founders favored completely legal narcotics; they would have been puzzled by calls to assassinate drug dealers.]

I see two problems with neoconservatism:

A. Policy interventions might fail.

B. Even worse, policy actions might succeed, leading to even greater future failures.

There is little doubt in my mind that America’s success in the two World Wars contributed to overconfidence, which led to the fiasco in Vietnam. (To be clear, I believe we were forced to fight the Second World War.)

In the mid-1980s, the US won what used to be called a “splendid little war” in Grenada. A few years later we won another splendid little war in Panama, and then in 1991 another in Iraq. The ease of those victories led to overconfidence in 2003, and the fiasco of the second Iraq War.

Pundits make the mistake of viewing these actions in isolation, judging each one on a cost—benefit basis, without reference to a broader policy regime. Policymakers are not looking at two buttons to push, one saying, “splendid little wars” and the other saying “quagmires”. You place your bets and take your chances.

Unfortunately, unlike with casino gambling the events are not independent. Here’s a sports analogy that might help. My favorite NBA team recently lost by one point to a weak team, and then a few days later defeated a weak team by one point. Some sports fans will say “If only we’d won that close game, we’d now have a four-game winning streak.” They don’t understand that games are not independent events. The embarrassing loss motivated the team to try harder, so that it would not be embarrassed a second time in a row. Even then, it only won by one point. If it had been able to eke out a close win in the previous game, the team would likely have been overconfident and might have lost the follow up game two days later.

Even people who opposed the Grenada and Panama invasions will often say things like, “It was a stupid decision, but since we are at war let’s pray for our soldiers to come out ahead.” Anything else seems unpatriotic, and that’s probably been my view in most cases. But in retrospect, what if Grenada and Panama had turned out badly? Might that have discredited neoconservatism, making the Iraq War less likely? I recall that after Vietnam there was very little appetite to fight another big war. Then we dipped our toes in the water with Grenada and Panama, and it seemed like splendid little wars turned out just fine. Even the first Iraq War (aka “Gulf War”) was over surprisingly quickly, and this probably led policymakers to underestimate the difficulties of the second Iraq War.

Trump has engaged in military action against Iran, Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia, and Venezuela. He has even refused to rule out military action against Colombia, Mexico and Denmark. Should we be hoping that Trump achieves lots of little successes, boosting his self-confidence? Or do you worry that perhaps Trump already has a tiny bit too much self-confidence?

I prefer to think in terms of regimes, such as mutual self-defense alliances like Nato, and not in terms of a series of discretionary gestures that may or may not work out. I feel that way even when we have a leader (like Bush 41) that is mostly supportive of internationalism, willing to work with our democratic allies. I feel even more strongly about the importance of stable policy regimes when we have a leader who frequently praises Putin and trashes the leaders of democratic countries. A leader who pardons one Latin America leader convicted of drug smuggling while arresting another Latin American leader accused of drug smuggling.

I see a lot of very smart pundits offering opinions on individual actions like the recent strikes on Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela. I see very few pundits offering coherent opinions on what sort of foreign policy regime makes sense for the US.

And no, “always push the right button” is not a sufficient answer.

PS. I just saw this Bloomberg headline:

China Social Media Hails US Maduro Move as a Taiwan Template

. . . “I suggest using the same method to reclaim Taiwan in the future,” one user said in reply to a post with more than 700 likes. “Since the US doesn’t take international law seriously, why should we care about it?” said another user.

I get that China was already determined to recapture Taiwan, but might this speed up the timeline? In a world where the other two big powers routinely attack smaller nations, might China face fewer economic sanctions (from third countries) after a Taiwan move than if it occurred during an otherwise more peaceful period like the late 1990s, when international law seemed to mean something? How about if it occurred right after we had also just grabbed Greenland from Denmark? How about if public statements by our president made it seem like the Venezuela operation was about oil, not drugs or humanitarian considerations? How does that influence global attitudes toward China?

And if the Monroe Doctrine gives the US the right to do as it wishes in Latin America, what rights does China have regarding an ethnically Chinese nearby island that is recognized by all but a handful of nations as a part of China? (In case it’s not obvious, I’m not defending China, I’m questioning the Monroe Doctrine.)

To paraphrase Tyler, context is underrated.

PPS. Ironically, over the past month the net change in drug smuggling Latin American leaders in US custody is . . .

Zero!!

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China’s Trade Surplus, Part II

A graph of the price of goods

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Chart 1 Source: Brad Setser

China, which by some measures has the world’s largest economy, is also running the biggest trade surplus in world history. Its surplus is unprecedented in dollar terms; more important, it’s unprecedented as a share of the world economy, as illustrated by Chart 1 above, reproduced from last week’s primer.

And China’s big surplus is a big problem.

Last week I explained that the root cause of this massive trade surplus is the refusal of the Chinese government to change an economic strategy that has become unsustainable.

In the past, China achieved stunning economic growth in part through a combination of very high savings and very high investment. Its savings remain very high, but investment in China is running into diminishing returns in the face of slowing technological progress and a shrinking working-age population. Yet the Chinese government keeps failing to take effective steps to reduce savings and increase consumer demand. Instead, China is in effect exporting its excess savings via its massive trade surplus. It’s using consumer demand in the rest of the world as a safety valve to keep Chinese workers employed. Otherwise, without the massive trade surplus, the Chinese economy would fall into a deep slump given its insufficient consumer demand.

In today’s post I’ll start by talking about how this policy works — that is, how China engineers its giant trade surplus. Then I’ll talk about why China’s surplus is a big problem for the rest of the world. Next week I’ll talk about how policy should respond.

Beyond the paywall, I’ll address the following:

1. How China generates its giant surpluses

2. The disruptive effects of China’s surpluses on other nations

3. Chinese surpluses as a national security issue

4. Chinese surpluses as a threat to economic growth

Read more

The November 2025 inflection point

It genuinely feels to me like GPT-5.2 and Opus 4.5 in November represent an inflection point - one of those moments where the models get incrementally better in a way that tips across an invisible capability line where suddenly a whole bunch of much harder coding problems open up.

Tags: anthropic, claude, openai, ai, llms, gpt-5, ai-assisted-programming, generative-ai, claude-4

Quoting Addy Osmani

With enough users, every observable behavior becomes a dependency - regardless of what you promised. Someone is scraping your API, automating your quirks, caching your bugs.

This creates a career-level insight: you can’t treat compatibility work as “maintenance” and new features as “real work.” Compatibility is product.

Design your deprecations as migrations with time, tooling, and empathy. Most “API design” is actually “API retirement.”

Addy Osmani, 21 lessons from 14 years at Google

Tags: api-design, addy-osmani, careers, google

Survey gives astronomers a latte to think about

Creating a star is hard work, and the process is not very efficient. Current knowledge suggests that a stellar nursery must have a minimum density of gas and dust for a star to form. Only 1-2% of all the gas and dust in these clouds is utilised to ignite a star. But could even denser regions be more efficient at forming stars?

In today's Picture of the Week, we’re looking at GAL316, one of the many stellar nurseries a team of astronomers observed to answer this question. This region is part of a survey called CAFFEINE – an astronomer’s best friend – carried out using the ArTéMiS camera at the Atacama Pathfinder Experiment (APEX), a radio-telescope in the Chajnantor plateau. Now operated by the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy, this telescope captures the faint glow of cold gas clouds, seen here as a blue glow. This glow has been overlaid on a starry background captured with ESO’s VISTA telescope.

Results from the study show that, unlike astronomers, who get more efficient with a bit of caffeine, the densest regions observed with this CAFFEINE survey seemed no more efficient at producing stars than any other stellar nursery above the minimum density.

The Future of Coding Agents

It has been three days since I launched Gas Town! 🔥⛽💥🛢️🔥 Woohoo!

The launch post had a lot of ground to cover. Fortunately we can relax now. Gas Town is alive, if only just. I have created something that is just barely smart enough. Gas Town works pretty OK today. Super fast, very fun, very powerful, definitely sloppy. But it will get dramatically more capable as four evolving situations unfold this year, around tooling and model intelligence.

In this post, I’ll share a bit of the backstory of Gas Town that I had to leave out of the Jan 1 post. And then I’ll share some predictions about what I think will happen to IDEs, big companies, and coding agents themselves. I also plan to do a bunch of posts and videos on how I use Gas Town to do real work.

Gas Town is impressive to watch in action. And it’s only just getting started.

Figure: Gas Town classroom with protesters outside

Gas Town’s Free Upgrades

First, let’s talk about how Gas Town will get smarter, simply from having launched it. Gas Town is a bit of a Swamp Thing right now; it sort of oozes rather than whirs. It does work, and astonishingly fast. Nothing like hurling swarms of Claude Code Opus 4.5 instances at a big epic, or bug backlog. Chomp, chomp! But it also requires a lot of manual steering and course-correction, and you sometimes have to push it to finish.

But that initial instability will fade over the course of 2026. Gas Town will go from a self-propelling slime monster to a shiny, well-run agent factory. All without me having to do a damned thing to improve it myself anymore (though I still will!)

First, models will get smarter. I know many of you think they have plateaued. I know many of you are building tools around the idea, “what if the models never got any smarter?” But models are getting smarter, and better at coding (and everything else). I aimed high with Gas Town. It’s a lot today, but it should be natural for models to play their roles by midyear, if not sooner.

Second, Gas Town and Beads are going to finally make it into the training corpus. One of the astonishing hallmarks of Beads is that agents use it naturally and smoothly with no training. Gas Town, too — still a bit bumpy yet, since Beads is two months more mature. But Gas Town will get there too. Fast.

I have been curating Gas Town the same way I did Beads, using the Desire Paths approach to agent UX. You tell the agent what you want, watch closely what they try, and then implement the thing they tried. Make it real. Over and over. Until your tools works just the way agents believe it should work. So Gas Town is gradually becoming agent-friendly, even without being in the training corpus.

But now that people are using it? Psh. Agents will know all about Gas Town by summer.

Third, coding agent shops are going to wake up, realize that they have built workers when I’ve built a factory (and the world will soon build more factories), and 2026 agents will compete on how well they support being factory workers. Gas Town currently has a crummy, duct-taped API atop a agents that offer barely any platform hooks. The agent shops that start supporting all the necessary automation hooks, to start turning their beloved pets into cattle, will be the agents who win in 2026.

Fourth, and last but not least, the Gas Town community is already going nuts. I’ve already had over 50 PRs, and double that in issue reports and feature requests. And it’s only the weekend; most people haven’t even come back from the holidays and seen Gas Town yet. Despite my dire warnings not to use it, Gas Town is growing fast, 10x faster than Beads did. Even if the models weren’t getting smarter, Gas Town will still come into its own anyway, with the community’s help.

Those of you who understood the vision immediately and reached out — I am grateful for you. And for all the contributors sending PRs and GHIs and trying it out, I’m so glad for your help.

Gas Town’s contributors will help make this a reality. I’ve painted just enough of a complete and coherent vision, with a solid initial implementation, that people are already on board and helping me fill in the details.

OK, a little story of how we got here, and then we’ll get to the predictions. Feel free to skip or skim the backstory if you’re not interested.

Gas Town was Orchestrator #4

In August I started working on an orchestrator called vibecoder. It was in TypeScript, all vibe coded. It was a serious attempt to automate my own workflow using (at the time) Amp, which has always been a luxury Rolls-Royce coding agent. Amp has great ergonomics. But importantly, it also has Ads — which means, Amp just might be the most affordable way to use Gas Town today. I found myself running 5–10 instances of Amp, and wanted to try to figure out how to get them to help me with the job.

My v1 attempt, Vibecoder, was built atop Temporal, which is the gold standard for workflow orchestration. It proved cumbersome for my needs. The workflows I was orchestrating turned out to be micro-workflows, since you have to severely decompose tasks for LLMs to reliably follow them.

Unfortunately, that lost me some scalability: Gas Town isn’t super vertically scalable in its K8s-shaped form. A town is about machine-sized. Gas Town scales by having lots of towns, much like Git scales by having lots of repos, which really just pushes the scaling problem onto the user. For this reason, I still believe Temporal will be a key piece of the puzzle for scaling AI workflows to enterprise level. Models love to offload cognition to powerful tools, and Temporal is as powerful as it gets: the Bagger 288 of workflow orchestrators. But that power is exactly why I stepped away from it for my dev tool: I feel like it needs a “lite” version.

My v2 version of vibecoder was called vc. You can see the legacy repo; it was supposed to be private but at some point I think vc itself made the repo public. It was in Go. It wound up being overly monolithic, not because of Go, but because I was trying to solve the wrong problem. With vibecoder and vc, I was trying to make agents better. With Gas Town, I was just trying to make more of them. The fact that Gas Town has all the features of the other two, with a tiny fraction of the code, tells me I finally got it right.

My v3 orchestrator began on November 23rd. I had by then left Sourcegraph (three memorable years, great company, lots of fun) and I was now working on a set of Python scripts aimed at trying to help me with swarming work. I had given up on quality and switched my focus to quantity. I started by moving all my ad-hoc named agents (just random directories and repo clones) under a single tree and trying to organize them with git worktree. I called it Gas Town, after Mad Max, because it was a ridiculously chaotic environment at first, where it felt like everyone was fighting to get their work done. I now call that first version PGT, or Python Gas Town.

Gas Town eagerly adopted a discovery by Jeffrey Emanuel, author of MCP Agent Mail. He found that combining Mail with Beads led to an ad-hoc “agent village,” where agents will naturally collaborate divide up work and farm it out. Coding agents are pros at email-like interfaces, and you can use mail as an “agent village” messaging system without needing to train or prompt them. They just get it. Gas Town was my attempt to turn an ad-hoc agent village into a coordinated agent town.

Python Gas Town grew quickly, becoming operational within a week, and carrying me for a couple weeks. It had evolved most of the roles except Deacon and Dogs. The Refinery was brand-new and untested. Mostly what Python Gas Town did was provide spawning for named and ephemeral workers. All with raw Beads and epics. But something about it felt right.

The last 2 weeks of December, after my trip to Sydney/Melbourne to visit CBA, was the fertile innovation period where I came up with 90% of the design for Gas Town. I had promised everyone at the workshops that I was going to launch it (Python Gas Town!) by Christmas day, or Jan 1 at the latest. Not realizing that I was going to wind up redesigning and rewriting the whole thing in Go, immediately after I got home.

It was the port to Go that actually encouraged me to try different things. I would tell Claude, “this is it, this is our last chance to get this or that irksome issue fixed”, and I went all-in on Gas Town’s revised architecture. I had to redo it all 3 or 4 times (again, after 3–4 redesigns in PGT) because the agents were still guessing wrong about the directory structure and roles. But eventually I achieved liftoff. By Dec 29th, my handoff loops were working, seances worked, polecats and swarms and convoys were working, the crew and tmux bindings were working, and I could improve Gas Town simply by slinging work at it. It was time to launch!

Why Golang?

My four orchestrators were written in TypeScript, Go, Python, then Go. For the record, I’m mostly a Java/Kotlin guy by background, and my best scripting language is probably Ruby. And I am generally happiest hand-coding in any dialect of Lisp.

But I am really liking Go for vibe-coded projects. I probably wrote close to a million lines of code last year, rivaling my entire 40-year career oeuvre to date. I started writing code at age 17, and I estimate that in the past 40 years I’ve handwritten about 1.1 million lines of released production code. But despite my attempts to keep Beads and Gas Town small, together they are already pushing half a million lines of code. With contributor contributions

During the time I was vibe-coding those million lines of code, I learned a lot about what AIs handle well and poorly. And what I found is that models waste a lot of tokens on TypeScript. It’s, like, too much language for them. Easily a third to half of all my diffs they created in TS were either complicated type manipulations, or complicated workarounds to avoid having to put proper types on things. Every single “write code” step had to be followed by 2–3 “let’s make it less bad” steps that don’t exist in other languages, to force it to go clean up all its crummy type modeling. I found it to be a huge waste of tokens, and the end result was still always a huge pile of code. For an ultra-expressive language it sure is verbose!

Python was “fine”. It didn’t suck. It hot reloaded my changes as I was working, which was nice. Whereas with Go, every agent has to reinstall and re-codesign the binary locally whenever you make a change, and they tend to forget. PGT’s code diffs were easy to scan and understand. The agents don’t waste time wrestling with type modeling. I think for server-side stuff, Python can potentially be great. But for a client-side deployment, it still always felt like a bunch of scripts. I liked Beads’ ability to build and distribute a native Go binary, so I opted for that with Go Gas Town.

Sure enough, I found on my second major Go project that Go is just… good. Polyglots have always turned their noses down a bit at Go because it’s “boring,” but I now think that’s an evolutionary advantage in the AI-coding space. When the diffs go by in TypeScript, half the time you’re like, what awful thing is my computer up to now? But with Go, it’s just boring. It’s writing log files, doing simple loops, doing simple conditionals, reading from maps and arrays, just super duper plain vanilla stuff. Which means you can always understand it! Speaking as someone who has studied and used 50+ programming languages, always looking for elegance and compactness — to my surprise, Go is a real boon to vibe-coding systems programmers.

Is TypeScript still the best for Web apps? Yeah, probably. I’m just glad I don’t have to build one.

The Future of Coding Agents

I’ve already predicted that IDEs, in their current form, are goners. If you’re still using one, you need to get your ass in gear and start using coding agents before before you acquire the equivalent of severe body odor on the open market.

Everyone seems to think that the future of coding agents is… coding agents. I’ll reiterate what my friend Brendan Hopper said about them, which is that when work needs to be done, nature prefers colonies. Nature builds ant colonies, Brendan says, while Claude Code is “the world’s biggest fuckin’ ant.” It will bite you in half and take all your resources. Everyone is focused on making their ant run longer, perform more, and do bigger things. Making the super-worker. The super-ant. It’s like all the black and white 1950s horror movies I watched as a kid in the 1970s.

And it’s great, because a colony of huge ants is going to really kick ass. Nothing wrong with big ants, yeah? I don’t mind at all that coding agents are getting better. I appreciate it, and in fact, I count on it. Gas Town really needs another model upgrade or two before it’s firing on all cylinders. I saw it appreciably improve when Opus 4.5 came out. I already had Python Gas Town and it was a struggle, but Opus 4.5 made it super smooth, overnight. So I know it’s just gonna keep getting smoother as the ants get bigger.

But colonies are going to win. Factories are going to win. Automation is going to win. Of course they’re gonna fucking win. Anyone who thinks otherwise is, well, not a big fan of history, I guess.

So my prediction here is that coding agents are very soon going to shift focus to be better colony workers. They need to have direct, built-in support for the emerging “Orchestrator API Surface”, which is a score or more or interaction points where I had to create some shitty hack because the agents have almost no platform APIs. Why? Because none of the 30+ coding-agent vendors are thinking of their precious baby coding agent as a colony worker. They’re thinking of it as a human pair programmer. Gas Town is going to change that over the course of 2026. The focus will shift to coordinating agents.

I’m not saying we’re going to give up on curating the human/agent loop — we need to continue improving that. But the real progress comes from colonies. The agents who get that, and embrace it, will win.

The Future of Big Companies

I think big companies are going to be screwed. Really screwed. The form factor is starting to be wrong. It’s too many people to accomplish too little work. Have you noticed how every fuckin’ person on LinkedIn is a CEO or cofounder now? The entire world is going to explode into tiny companies, which will then aggregate and re-form into larger ones… but not until we go through at least a year of churn, where small shops dramatically outperform large ones, to a degree we’ve never seen in all history.

Figure: Small shops compete directly with bigger ones

Here’s a case study for you. I had lunch the other day with a couple ex-Amazon buddies, neither of whom I’d seen in 20 years — Ryan Snodgrass and Ajit Banerjee, who are doing a startup together in the devops/automation space. They are big Beads fans and wanted to grab lunch and chat about it. We ate at Cactus in Kirkland, always good food there. And we had a hell of a chat! Thanks for the lunch, guys!

These guys are level 8s on my developer-evolution chart from the Gas Town launch post. They’re pushing coding agents as hard as anyone on the planet. And they’re observing some phenomena that I didn’t see coming. This is because they are doing something that I am not: they are working as a team, whereas all my orchestrated vibe coding has been done alone.

The stories they told me… it’s all still buzzing around in my head. They are both vibe coding with agents (Claude Code and maybe a couple others), and they both lean hard into Beads, which is a workflow accelerator. It doesn’t actually matter what your agentic coding workflow is: Beads will accelerate it. They both have unlimited tokens; Ryan’s burning $60k/year or thereabouts, but is quickly pushing up into dev-salary territory. So they have been achieving the maximum speeds you can get with coding agents.

Their stories flew by, but the theme was the same: They are going so fast that other teammates can’t keep up. They have a contributor in Munich who works in PST (our timezone), and he’ll say, “I did X!” And they’ll get mad and say, “Why did you do X, where did you get that information from?” And he’ll be like, it was from 2 hours ago. And they’ll say, “2 hours ago!? That’s ancient!” It might as well have been 2 weeks ago.

Ajit and Ryan go so fast that they have these new rules emerging, like, everything you do has to be 100% transparent and announced, all the time, or else you might as well be working in a sealed concrete chamber a mile underground. Everyone has to see your work or nobody will see it. Stuff is moving by too fast.

How do you scale this up to a big company? Crikey, when Ajit & Ryan get fully spun up with Gas Town, they’re going to be at many multiples of today’s productivity. They don’t need to scale it to a big company. Heck, they can’t scale it to a big company. At least, nobody knows how today.

Gene Kim and I are seeing this everywhere; we talked to one big company who was getting so wrecked by the merge problem that they decided the solution was “one engineer per repo”(!) They basically gave up and punted on coordination, ceding the floor to raw single-dev velocity.

This is crazy, right? And factory coding farms like Gas Town will only accelerate and accentuate this problem. Solo unicorn? They’ll all be solo, soon. At this rate I’ll be more impressed if a 100-person startup can make a billion dollars in 2027. Genuinely impressed. How will they even communicate, with that many people doing AI work at once? I can’t wait to find out.

I’m sure we’ll solve all these problems eventually, but as of this moment, we’re at the beginning of a massive shift that’s going to plow through the industry like a tornado, flipping companies like houses.

OK, we’ve done the backstory, we’ve done the predictions. Let’s land the plane.

Like and Subscribe and F*** Off

Ha! Just kidding, I already told you all to f*** off in the launch post, several times, so if you’re still here, you’re definitely one of the crazy ones and welcome aboard!

Plus, I don’t even think Medium has that like/subscribe stuff. Do they?

I’ve got a LOT of Gas Town content coming. Gas Town is the Big One. I’ll do videos that show you how I work with Gas Town, doing real work with it. I’ll post tips and tricks. I’ll share stuff that other people are doing with Gas Town. I’ll showcase agents that are working to become compatible Gas Town colony workers. And Gene Kim and I will continue to host hands-on workshops throughout 2026, for those of you who want a premium educational experience to jumpstart your enterprise devs in this brave new world.

Remember, you’re probably not ready for Gas Town just yet. I’ll reprise the “Evolution of Coders, 2024–2026,” from the launch post, as it’s already making the rounds and sparking a lot of discussion.

Figure 2: Evolution of the Programmer, 2024–2026

The post shows a spectrum of 8 levels of developer, with trust in the agent gradually increasing from zero to where it takes over your IDE, spills into the CLI, and then multiplies from there.

You need to be at least level 6, and have about half of the XP needed to reach level 7, before you’ll appreciate Gas Town. If you are already very experienced with multi-agent agentic coding, outside the IDE, then I think you will immediately find Gas Town a breath of fresh air. You’ll be faster than ever, with the exact same quality output you’ve learned to demand and expect with “naked” Claude Code, or with ad-hoc orchestrators.

Level 7+ users are already reporting that Gas Town is fun. Which it is! Once it gets on a roll for you, and it starts plowing through giant piles of heavily-reviewed, heavily-tested work, day after day, you’ll realize, wow. This is it. There’s no going back. We’ve arrived at factory farming code. And it’s hella fun.

I’m ready to write my next two posts about Gas Town, so let’s wrap this one! I’ll throw in some original content here to get you to subscribe. AI did not write this. Trying to get AI to write stuff like this is like getting old people to clap their hands to music.

Your original content: the beginnings of a song about Gas Town.

(To the tune of, well… you know.)

LeFou: Gosh it disturbs me to see you, Gas Town, looking so hard at my job
Every one here’d love to use you, Gas Town, you’re making our coder hearts throb
There’s no orchestration available today
We’re wrestling with Claude Code all night
Gas Town you’ve shown us the game’s pay to play
Oh we hope it will turn out all right…

Nooooo…
Ooooone…
Churns like Gas Town
Token-burns like Gas Town
No one’s cloud bill at end-of-month hurts like Gas Town!
For there’s no system half as autonomous
It’s got Beads, so it keeps going on
You can ask any coder who’s tried us
And they will all tell you their savings are gone!

No one codes like Gas Town
Context-loads like Gas Town
No one leaves humans out in the cold like Gas Town!
(spoken) “I’m especially skillful at orchestrating!”
My, what a rig, that Gas Town!

FAQ

People have been asking some interesting questions about Gas Town already.

Q: Are we entering a pay-to-play era where garage hackers are irrelevant?

A: It’s an understandable question. Gas Town is the beginning of industrialized factory-farming of code, which feels like pay to play. It’s expensive today, and as the models improve, it will become even more expensive to push it at the frontier. However, I think garage vibe-coding is going to be alive and well starting around summer 2026. OSS models lag frontier models by about 7 months, so by summer, OSS models will be as good as October’s crop, which were “good enough” for most startup-type eng work. If you have a GPU or two, you can run them for free all night long.

Q: Does Gas Town obsolete Vibe Coding?

A: Ha! It does not. Gas Town goes the other way, and fully embraces vibe coding. People still don’t understand that we’ve been vibe coding since the Stone Age. Programming has always been a best-effort, we’ll-fix-shit-later endeavor. We always ship with bugs. The question is, how close is it? How good are your tests? How good is your verification suite? Does it meet the customer’s needs? That’s all that matters. Today is no different from how engineering has ever been. From a company’s perspective, historically, the engineer has always been the black box. You ask them for stuff; it eventually arrives, broken, and then gradually you work together to fix it. Now the AI is that black box. If you want to learn the art of Vibe Coding so you can be maximally effect with coding agents and Gas Town, check out the Vibe Coding book that I co-wrote with the legendary Gene Kim!

Vibe Coding, by Gene Kim and Steve Yegge

Sunday 4 January 1662/63

(Lord’s day). Up and to church, where a lazy sermon, and so home to dinner to a good piece of powdered beef, but a little too salt. At dinner my wife did propound my having of my sister Pall at my house again to be her woman, since one we must have, hoping that in that quality possibly she may prove better than she did before, which I take very well of her, and will consider of it, it being a very great trouble to me that I should have a sister of so ill a nature, that I must be forced to spend money upon a stranger when it might better be upon her, if she were good for anything.

After dinner I and she walked, though it was dirty, to White Hall (in the way calling at the Wardrobe to see how Mr. Moore do, who is pretty well, but not cured yet), being much afeard of being seen by anybody, and was, I think, of Mr. Coventry, which so troubled me that I made her go before, and I ever after loitered behind. She to Mr. Hunt’s, and I to White Hall Chappell, and then up to walk up and down the house, which now I am well known there, I shall forbear to do, because I would not be thought a lazy body by Mr. Coventry and others by being seen, as I have lately been, to walk up and down doing nothing. So to Mr. Hunt’s, and there was most prettily and kindly entertained by him and her, who are two as good people as I hardly know any, and so neat and kind one to another. Here we staid late, and so to my Lord’s to bed.

Read the annotations

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026

Monday:
• Early, Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for 48.3%, up from 48.2%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were moxed over the last week with WTI futures at $57.32 per barrel and Brent at $60.75 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $77 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.77 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.04 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.27 year-over-year.

January 3, 2026

January 3, 2026

Today was the legal deadline for the Department of Justice to submit to Congress a written justification for any documents from the Epstein files that the department had redacted or withheld. But it seems unlikely the Justice Department met this deadline because it has missed the December 19 deadline for releasing the files themselves. Both of those deadlines were established by the Epstein Files Transparency Act, passed overwhelmingly by Congress on November 19, 2025.

Information from those files continues to trickle out. Those that have been released suggest the Department of Justice considered charging “co-conspirators” and that Trump traveled on Epstein’s private plane with Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell, along with alleged victims, on several occasions. Mar-a-Lago routinely sent employees to perform massages and other spa services at Epstein’s home, where he exposed himself to those employees. According to Daniel Ruetenik of CBS News, video released on December 23 and 24, 2025, contradicts previous statements about the surveillance system in the prison in which sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was found dead in August 2019.

Trump has taken a hit on his domestic policy lately, as well. After the Supreme Court on December 23, 2025, rejected the administration’s argument that it had the power to deploy federalized National Guard troops in and around Chicago, Trump announced on December 31 that the administration is removing National Guard troops from Chicago, Los Angeles, and Portland. Then he claimed that the troops had “greatly reduced” crime in those cities and vowed to “come back, perhaps in a much different and stronger form, when crime begins to soar again—Only a question of time!”

“Donald Trump’s lying again,” Democratic Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker posted on social media. “He lost in court when Illinois stood up against his attempt to militarize American cities with the National Guard. Now Trump is forced to stand down.” “If President Trump has finally chosen to follow court orders and demobilize our troops,” said Democratic Oregon governor Tina Kotek, “that’s a big win for Oregonians and for the rule of law.”

And then, on New Year’s Eve, Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee released a 255-page transcript of former special counsel Jack Smith’s December 17 closed-door testimony before the committee. The fact they chose to release it at a time when most Americans are not paying attention to the news tells you all you need to know about what Smith said. Republicans have insisted that Smith’s indictments of Trump were a sign that former president Joe Biden’s Justice Department was “weaponized” against Trump and MAGA supporters, but in his testimony—under oath—Smith said Trump was guilty.

As Parker Molloy covered in The Present Age, Smith said that his office had “developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the results of the 2020 election and to prevent the lawful transfer of power. Our investigation also developed powerful evidence that showed that President Trump willfully retained highly classified documents after he left office in January of 2021, storing them at his social club, including in a ballroom and a bathroom. He then repeatedly tried to obstruct justice to conceal his continued retention of those documents.” Smith told the committee that the evidence for the indictment came not from the president’s enemies, but from Republicans who had worked for Trump, campaigned for him, and wanted him to win in 2020.

It is against this backdrop that the Trump administration launched a strike against Venezuela in the early hours of Saturday, January 3. Without consulting Congress, officials ordered the military to seize president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, flying them to New York City to face federal charges newly announced by the Southern District of New York.

Trump insists that Maduro is working with the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to attack the U.S. with illegal narcotics. This has been the justification for U.S. strikes on small boats, apparently from Venezuela, that the administration claims have been trafficking drugs to the U.S. The administration has implied the deadly drugs it claims the boats are trafficking are illicit fentanyl, although it has told Congress they were transporting cocaine, which it has now indicted Maduro for trafficking.

But aside from drugs, Trump and his cronies have also increasingly emphasized their conviction that Venezuela “stole” oil from the U.S. and must return it. This appears to be a reference to the loss of U.S. rigs, pipelines, and other facilities when Venezuelan president Carlos Andrés Pérez nationalized the oil companies operating within its borders on January 1, 1976, although Trump might mean the expansion of those seizures under president Hugo Chávez starting in 2007.

This morning, Trump informed the American people of what had happened in Caracas by calling in to Fox & Friends on the Fox News Channel from Mar-a-Lago to describe the strikes and the extraction of Maduro and Flores. He praised the team and boasted that no other country could have done what the U.S. did. “I mean, I watched it literally like I was watching a television show. And, uh… if you would’ve seen the speed, the violence—you know they say that, ‘the speed, the violence,’ they use that term—it’s uh, just, it was an amazing thing, an amazing job that these people did.”

In a midday press conference, members of the administration fleshed out the story of what they are calling “Operation Absolute Resolve.” Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to emphasize that the attack and extraction of Maduro and Flores were a law enforcement mission, Trump made it clear the goal was regime change in order to gain control of Venezuela’s oil. The administration acted unilaterally, without consulting Congress, and in apparent violation of international law.

Slurring his words and repeating himself as he read from a script and occasionally wandered off it, Trump called the operation “an assault like people have not seen since World War II” and said it was “one of the most stunning effective and powerful displays of American military might and competence in American history.”

Trump said the U.S. will “run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” evidently not interested in supporting Edmundo González, the former diplomat who beat Maduro in the 2024 presidential election.

Trump turned immediately to Venezuela’s oil industry, saying that it had been “a total bust…pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping.” He explained that “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.” “This partnership of Venezuela with the United States of America,” he said, “will make the people of Venezuela rich, independent, and safe.”

If such a mission required U.S. troops on the ground in Venezuela, he said, the administration was not afraid of such deployment.

The president launched into the language of his rally speeches—rote by now—before returning to oil. Although international law is clear that countries own the natural resources within their own territories, he claimed that Venezuela had “unilaterally seized, and sold American oil, American assets and American platforms, costing us billions and billions of dollars…. They took all of our property. It was our property. We built it…and they stole it through force. This constituted one of the largest thefts of American property in the history of our country, considered the largest theft of property in the history of our country.”

And then he hit on the larger foreign policy principle his attack on Venezuela is designed to establish. “America will never allow foreign powers to rob our people and drive us back into and out of our own hemisphere,” he said. He said that the U.S. has now replaced the 1823 Monroe Doctrine—which he called “a big deal” that we “forgot” without explaining that it warned foreign countries from colonizing South America—with the “Donroe Document”: American dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

After World War II, the United States and its allies and partners put in place a rules-based international order to prevent future world conflicts. Under that order, the members of the United Nations agreed they would not threaten or attack another country. Russian president Vladimir Putin has sought to replace that rules-based order with the idea that powerful countries will create spheres of influence in their regions. That new world order would justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Now the U.S. invasion of Venezuela with the promise that the U.S. is going to “run” the country from now on, as part of its quest to dominate the Western Hemisphere, means the U.S. has abandoned the post–World War II international order and is siding with Russia’s vision.

“By proceeding without any semblance of international legitimacy, valid legal authority or domestic endorsement, Mr. Trump risks providing justification for authoritarians in China, Russia and elsewhere who want to dominate their own neighbors,” wrote the New York Times editorial board. That justification seems to be the point.

Trump warned Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro that he has to “watch his ass,” said “Cuba is going to be something we’ll end up talking about,” and warned that “something will have to be done about Mexico.” “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again,” he said. Katie Miller, wife of White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, posted an image of Greenland covered with an American flag and the caption “SOON.”

When Maduro arrived in New York City tonight, official White House social media channels, including that of the president, showed him on his perp walk.

By afternoon, though, the triumphal story seemed to be sagging.

The New York Times reported that at least 40 civilians and military personnel were killed in the attack, which hit a three-story apartment building.

Although Trump told reporters that Venezuelan vice president Delcy Rodríguez had been sworn into the presidency and that she seemed willing to work with the U.S. “to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again,” Rodríguez insisted in a televised address to Venezuelans today that Maduro is the rightful president of Venezuela and must be released, and said the U.S. had “launched an unprecedented military aggression.” “If there is one thing that the Venezuelan people and this country are clear about,” she said, “it is that we will never again be slaves, that we will never again be a colony of any empire, whatever its nature.”

Ben Lefebvre, Zack Colman, and James Bikales of Politico reported that oil companies are leery of Trump’s plan that they will invest billions of dollars in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry. Two sources told the journalists that while oil companies would like reimbursement for the equipment and infrastructure they left behind in Venezuela when its government nationalized the oil fields, they are unenthusiastic about Trump’s demand that they invest heavily in rebuilding Venezuela’s destroyed petroleum industry in order to recoup their losses.

They say they have no idea how badly the infrastructure has decayed, and little interest in investing when it is not clear who will be running the country in the future. The administration has failed to reach out to oil executives with a long-term plan, experts told the journalists. One source said “it feels very much a shoot-ready-aim exercise.”

That lack of preparation appears to be in keeping with the overall post-raid planning. Trump told reporters today that administration officials were “designating various people” to “run” Venezuela, “and we’re gonna let you know who those people are.” Tonight Robbie Gramer and Juan Forero of the Wall Street Journal said the administration is “racing to assemble an interim governing structure for Venezuela” but noted that “[t]he lack of details about what comes next led some U.S. officials to question why there was no detailed plan in place well before deposing Maduro.”

Gramer and Forero noted that Venezuela is twice the size of California and has 28 million people in it, millions of whom continue to support Maduro, whose government remains largely intact. Those supporters include armed cocaine-trafficking groups, some of whom fought as guerillas in Colombia, and an army of more than 100,000 soldiers.

Current and former U.S. officials told the reporters that the next phase of Trump’s operation in Venezuela is full of risks and the potential for blunders.

Notes:

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/4405/text

The Present Age
House Republicans Buried the Jack Smith Transcript on New Year’s Eve. I Read It So You Don’t Have To.
House Republicans released the 255-page transcript of Jack Smith’s closed-door deposition on New Year’s Eve. You know, the day when absolutely nobody is paying attention to the news. The day when political operatives dump things they don’t want people to see…
Read more

https://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/2025-12/Smith-Depo-Transcript_Redacted-w-Errata.pdf

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/epstein-files-videos-jail-footage/

https://www.npr.org/2026/01/02/nx-s1-5662638/epstein-files-release-trump-conspiracy-2026

Law Dork
Supreme Court, on a 6-3 vote, rejects Trump's effort to deploy National Guard in Illinois for now
The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday issued a 6-3 decision rejecting for now President Donald Trump’s effort to deploy National Guard troops in Illinois…
Read more

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-removing-national-guard-troops-chicago-los-angeles-portland-rcna251746

https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl

https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4370431/trump-announces-us-militarys-capture-of-maduro/

https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/watch-live-trump-holds-news-conference-after-announcing-u-s-has-captured-venezuelan-leader-maduro

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/world/americas/maduro-photo-trump.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/world/americas/venezuela-airstrike-civilian-deaths.html?smid=url-share

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/03/world/trump-maduro-venezuela-us-strikes/42270c74-42cd-5274-9448-8a807aa01907

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/03/world/trump-maduro-venezuela-us-strikes/9cb18fca-bac9-5933-b0bb-9a94fec35fce

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/03/world/trump-maduro-venezuela-us-strikes/e47c83b6-53df-5d62-908f-bb9277376fa3

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/03/world/trump-maduro-venezuela-us-strikes/fff558da-b803-564f-9f98-60d0bd5370a2

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/03/trump-venezuela-oil-us-companies-return-00709782

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/after-maduro-ouster-trump-takes-on-the-risks-of-governing-venezuela-d1ac75d4

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/03/trump-venezela-mexico-00710063

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-venezuela-us-oil/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/opinion/venezuela-attack-trump-us.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/03/venezuela-maduro-capture-inside-raid/

https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-venezuela-maduro-january-3-2026/

X:

GovPritzker/status/2006500219412976014

Bluesky:

atrupar.com/post/3mbjmlz642r2l

atrupar.com/post/3mbkqzf7f5s2g

onestpress.onestnetwork.com/post/3mbkk7jjjas2k

cnn.com/post/3mbkyqpuipd23

robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mbhafnpyps2f

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Links 1/4/26

Links for you. Science:

Scientists Discover Massive Underwater Ruins That May Be a Lost City of Legend
A family of linear plasmid phages that detect a quorum-sensing autoinducer exists in multiple bacterial species
Scientists Discover ‘Black Widow’ Exoplanet That Defies Explanation
Tuberculosis: A surprising new hiding place for a dangerous pathogen
Attachment and replication of clade 2.3.4.4b influenza A (H5N1) viruses in human respiratory epithelium: an in-vitro study
2025 is ‘year of the octopus’ as record numbers spotted off England’s south coast

Other:

The Triumph of Free-Speech Hypocrisy
TikTok Deal Done And It’s Somehow The Shittiest Possible Outcome, Making Everything Worse
White House threatens Smithsonian funds in sweeping content review
Inside Stephen Miller’s Dark Plot to Build a MAGA Terror State
The Transphobic Mask Is Off
LSU nursing grad, detained by ICE for 6 months, may self-deport: ‘I feel hopeless all the time’
Mob Rules: The Chicago Outfit’s second life as nostalgia—and as presidential politics
HUD Is Refusing to Enforce Anti-Discrimination Law—and Won’t Let Anyone Else Do It, Either
A middle-class family’s only option: A $43,000 health insurance premium
In America, Mass Shooting Survivors Can Never Know Peace
This church cafeteria is a soulful constant in an ever-changing D.C.
Brad Lander on What It Takes to Win as a Progressive
Is Gen Z the key to a manufacturing revival? Fall River thinks so.
The Shocking Confessions of Susie Wiles
Candace Owens Is the Conservative Movement’s Frankenstein Monster
Jeffries Undercuts Congressional Stock Trading Ban
Rural health providers could be collateral damage from $100K Trump visa fee
They graduated from Stanford. Due to AI, they can’t find a job
Inside the Trump administration’s man-made hunger crisis
Power Brokers: What’s really behind your soaring utility bills
The wobbly economy comes to Trump country. After a plant closure in deep-red Nebraska, residents face a painful disconnect between President Donald Trump’s economic message and their reality.
CBS and CNN Are Being Sacrificed to Trump
MAGA’s Manly Manufacturing Misfire
The Kill Switch: How Bari Weiss handed the Trump administration a veto over CBS News
Boys at her school shared AI-generated, nude images of her. After a fight, she was the one expelled
No Sweetheart, Favoritism Isn’t Driving ‘The Great Feminization’, Modernity Is
Ready or Not, Here They Come — Notes From the AI Force-Feed
Failing to challenge Trump on immigration, Democrats have given MAGA free rein to redefine American identity
Stephen Miller Loses It as Jury Acquits Man Who Towed ICE Agent’s Car
ICE Detains Woman Whose Lawyer Insists Is US Citizen. DHS Says She Isn’t

U.S. interventions in the New World, with leader removal

I can think of a few.  I am not thinking of ongoing struggles, such as the funding of opposition to the Sandinistas, rather I wish to focus on cases where the key leaders actually were removed.  After all, we know that is the case in Venezuela today.  Maybe these efforts were rights violations, or unconstitutional, and yes that matters.  But how did they fare in utilitarian terms?

Puerto Rico: 1898, a big success.

Mexican-American War: Removed Mexican leaders from what today is the American Southwest.  Big utilitarian success, including for the many Mexicans who live there now.

Chile, and the coup against Allende: A utilitarian success, Chile is one of the wealthiest places in Latin America and a stable democracy today.

Grenada: Under Reagan, better than Marxism, not a huge success, but certainly an improvement.

Panama, under the first Bush, or for that matter much earlier to get the Canal built: Both times a big success.

Haiti, under Clinton, and also 1915-1934: Unclear what the counterfactuals should be, still this case has to be considered a terrible failure.

Cuba, 1906-1909: Unclear?  Nor do I know enough to assess the counterfactual.

Dominican Republic, 1961-1954, starting with Trujillo.  A success, as today the DR is one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America.  But the positive developments took a long time.

I do not know enough about the U.S. occupation of the DR 1916-1924 to judge that instance.  But not an obvious success?

Can we count the American Revolution itself?  The Civil War?  Both I would say were successes.

We played partial but perhaps non-decisive roles in regime changes in Ecuador 1963 and Brazil 1964, in any case I consider those results to be unclear.  Maybe Nicaragua 1909-1933 counts here as well.

So the utilitarian in you, at least, should be happy about Venezuela, whether or not you should be happy on net.

You should note two things.  First, the Latin interventions on the whole have gone much better than the Middle East interventions.  Perhaps that is because the region has stronger ties to democracy, and also is closer to the United States, both geographically and culturally.  Second, looking only at the successes, often they took a long time and/or were not exactly the exact kinds of successes the intervenors may have sought.

Absher, Grier, and Grier consider CIA activism in Latin America and find poor results.  I think much of that is springing from cases where we failed to remove the actual leaders, such as Nicaragua and Cuba.  Simply funding a conflict does seem to yield poor returns.

The post U.S. interventions in the New World, with leader removal appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Update: Lumber Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Here is another update on lumber prices.

NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

On January 2, 2026, LBR was at $534.00 per 1,000 board feet, down 1.6% from a year ago.

Lumber PricesClick on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.

The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  

Now, even with the tariffs, prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year suggesting weak demand for framing lumber.

Trump Says US Has Captured Venezuela’s President Maduro

Trump’s full Truth Social post from 4:21 a.m. ET:

The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow. There will be a News Conference today at 11 A.M., at Mar-a-Lago. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Experts are condemning the strikes as illegal under international law, and questioning why Congress wasn’t consulted.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) said on X that he had spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who “informed me that Nicolás Maduro has been arrested by U.S. personnel to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States.” Maduro was indicted in 2020. There is no known indictment of his wife.

Manuel Noriega, the Panamanian dictator who was captured by the U.S. during a 1989 invasion to stand trial in Miami, is getting mentioned a lot. A DOJ Office of Legal Counsel opinion from that time asserts that “the President, acting through the Attorney General, has the inherent constitutional authority to deploy the FBI to investigate and arrest individuals for violating United States law, even if those actions contravene customary international law.”

Lee, who had initially questioned how this attack was possible under U.S. law without the consent of Congress, did a quick 180, seemingly immediately satisfied with Rubio’s insistence that the “large scale strike” described by Trump was necessary to defend law enforcement. Other Republican members of Congress are falling in line this morning too.

This post has been updated.

Matthew Dowd Exposes the Pickle 1 XR Glasses as a Preposterous Fraud

Matthew Dowd, in a long, devastatingly careful post on Twitter/X:

If they’re suggesting their waveguide displays are bright enough and vibrant enough to see clearly in direct sunlight, that would be yet another innovation they’ve discovered that every other player in the market (including the Chinese manufacturers where the waveguide displays come from) has missed.

Meta has access to every display manufacturer and their Display Glasses’ peak brightness is ~5,000 nits, itself very power heavy. These glasses came out just last fall and there is no sign of significantly brighter waveguides shipping for commercial products since then. It’s also worth noting that Meta Display Glasses users have noted poor readability in direct sunlight, suggesting a greater leap would be necessary to meet Pickle’s claims.

Put simply, Pickle having much brighter waveguides that also have a 30-degree FOV is extremely unlikely. It would mean that some waveguide manufacturer out there (there aren’t many) recently achieved a breakthrough and has chosen Pickle to be the first device it’s found in. Oh, and it’s going to ship next quarter.

I don’t know what these scammers at Pickle think is going to happen, but they sure as shit aren’t going to ship a product that does anything vaguely close to what they claim they’re on the cusp of shipping. I doubt they’re going to ship anything at all, ever. The whole thing is like the Big Lie, but for technology not politics.

One of two scenarios is true:

  1. Pickle, a 15-person startup founded in 2024 that has raised less than $10 million, is the most advanced personal computer hardware company in the world, on the cusp of launching multiple hardware and software technologies that put the company 5-10 years ahead of established rivals like Apple, Meta, Samsung, Google, Sony, and Zeiss. The Pickle 1 glasses are the most amazing consumer electronics device since the original iPhone. CEO Daniel Park will go down in history as one of the most innovative leaders and inventors in the history of the world. Or:

  2. Pickle is a complete and utter sham that is accepting $200 pre-orders for a product that exists only as a fabricated fake in its launch video. CEO Daniel Park is a liar and fraud, and, depending upon what they do with the pre-order payments they are now collecting, perhaps a thief.

Either (a) is mostly true or (b) is mostly true. Given that there exists not one single independent person other than Park himself who vouches that the Pickle 1 actually exists and functions in prototype form, I think it’s pretty obvious which scenario is the case. Which makes me wonder what the hell is going on at Y Combinator these days.

 ★ 

Stories Beyond Demographics

The representation theory of stories, where the protagonist must mirror my gender, race, or sexuality for me to find myself in the story, offers a cramped view of what fiction can do and a shallow account of how it actually works. Stories succeed not through mirroring but by revealing human patterns that cut across identity. Archetypes like Hero, Caregiver, Explorer, and Artist, and structures like Tragedy, Romance, and Quest are available to everyone. That is why a Japanese salaryman can love Star Wars despite never having been to space or met a Wookie and why an American teenager can recognize herself in a nineteenth-century Russian novel.

Tom Bogle makes this point well in a post on Facebook:

I have no issue with people wanting representation of historically marginalized people in stories. I understand that people want to “see themselves” in the story.

But it is more important to see the stories in ourselves than to see ourselves in the stories.

When we focus on the representation model, we recreate a character to be an outward representation of physical traits. Then the internal character traits of that individual become associated with the outward physical appearance of the character and we pigeonhole ourselves into thinking that we are supposed to relate only to the character that looks like us. Movies and TV shows have adopted the Homer Simpson model of the aloof, detached, and even imbecilic father, and I, as a middle-aged cis het white guy with seven kids could easily fall into the trap of thinking that is the only character to whom I can relate. It also forces us to change the stories and their underlying imagery in order to fit our own narrative preferences, which sort of undermines the purpose for retelling an old story in the first place.

The archetypal model, however, shifts our way of thinking. Instead of needing to adapt the story of Little Red-Cap (Red Riding Hood) to my own social and cultural norms so that I can see myself in the story, I am tasked with seeing the story play out in myself. How am I Riding Hood? How am I the Wolf? How does the grandmother figure appear in me from time to time? Who has been the Woodsman in my life? How have I been the Woodsman to myself or others? Even the themes of the story must be applied to my patterns of behavior or belief systems, not simply the characters. This model also enables us to retain the integrity of the versions of these stories that have withstood the test of time.

So if your goal is actually to affect real social change through stories, I would encourage you to consider how the archetypal approach may actually be more effective at accomplishing your aims than the representational approach alone (as they are not necessarily in conflict with one another).

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Reading List 01/03/2026

Happy new year, and welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at automated code checkers, meranti wood, shifting snowfall patterns, launching spacecraft with bullwhips, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

Automated code checkers

I’ve previously written about historical efforts to make automated code-checking software: basically to check whether the design of a building meets code requirements algorithmically, instead of the laborious and error-prone process of manual review.

So far, these efforts haven’t been particularly successful: the only successful efforts are very narrow, small-scale checks for things like solar panel installations or energy code compliance. But the advent of LLMS opens up a new possibility for how these sorts of code checkers might work: instead of completely representing the building code and the design of your building in software form (which is what previous efforts have tried to do), simply give your construction documents to an appropriately-trained AI model. I already often use LLMs to check my work if I’m writing about a topic I don’t have a strong background in, and there’s speculation that we might see similar LLM checking for submissions to scientific journals. It stands to reason that an AI model trained on code requirements and construction documents might be quite useful for code checking, even if it wasn’t 100% accurate.

Apparently I’m not the first person to think of this idea, and there are several startups offering various flavors of AI-powered permit checking. CivCheck’s AI plan review software claims 97% accuracy, and 80% reduction in permit approval times. Govstream offers a variety of AI plan review tools, including a chatbot that applicants can ask permit-related questions to. This reddit thread has comments from a variety of folks experimenting with AI plan review in various ways.

It will be interesting to see how this trend plays out, given both the constant pressure to shave costs on the building design side and the fundamental conservatism and risk aversion of the construction industry.

Rainforests and RV interiors

Apparently the interior of recreational vehicles are largely made using meranti, a wood from southeast asia, and that demand from RVs is allegedly contributing to deforestation in the countries where meranti grows. Via the New York Times:

The United States is the world’s largest producer of recreational vehicles and has relied for decades on meranti, which is also known as lauan. The timber is processed into a plywood that is lightweight, moisture-resistant, flexible and cut into thin sheets. R.V. makers use it for interior walls, flooring, cabinets and other features.

Catering to this demand, conservation groups say, has accelerated deforestation in Borneo. In the last five years alone, tens of thousands of acres of the island’s forests have been chopped down for lauan, usually with the Indonesian government’s permission. This has contributed to the disappearance of some of the world’s largest rainforests and wetlands, unleashing dense stores of carbon, upending the lives of Indigenous people and endangering the habitats of orangutans and other animals.

Since 2020, the United States has bought more than $900 million of the lauan plywood that goes into R.V.s, the vast majority of it from Indonesia, U.S. trade data show. (Lauan is also used by the construction industry.)

Per the article, meranti is used in RVs because other materials would be thicker and heavier, but it’s not amazingly clear the relative fraction of meranti that’s used by the American RV industry. This supplier claims that meranti is “arguably the most readily available thin-panel plywood worldwide”. Wood Magazine claims that “much of it becomes plywood, plywood paneling, cabinets, and hollow-core doors. In lumber form, meranti is worked into light structural framing, moldings and trim, and low-cost furniture.” This supplier describes it as a “staple of the construction industry”. So it seems like meranti is used for lots of things, not just RVs.

On the other hand, there are a lot more RVs sold annually in the US than I expected — nearly half a million if you include all types of trailers — so if meranti is in most or all of them it certainly could be a very large fraction of demand.

National Raisin Reserve

After World War II, there was a sudden glut of raisins in the market because the US government suddenly stopped buying them (presumably because it no longer needed them for military rations). To prevent raisins from flooding the market and bankrupting farmers, the government created a national raisin reserve, which allowed the government to “seize up to 47% of raisin producers’ crops each year” to control the supply and prevent the price from collapsing. The reserve apparently existed until 2015, when the Supreme Court ruled that it was unconstitutional. Via Wikipedia:

In 1949, Marketing Order 989 was passed which created the reserve and the Raisin Administrative Committee, which was responsible for running the reserve. Once established, the reserve functioned as a government-mandated cartel, artificially limiting the raisin supply in order to drive up prices, for the collective benefit of raisin growers.

American raisins, once seized, were sent to various warehouses across California, to be stored until sold to foreign nations, fed to cattle or schoolchildren, or disposed of in any other way to get them off the market that year.

Nusantara

Iran isn’t the only country that’s trying to move its capital because the surrounding environment is becoming inhospitable. The New York Times has an article about Nusantara, a city being built from scratch in Indonesia to replace the current capitol, Jakarta, which is slowly sinking into the sea (as of 2018 half of it was already below sea level).

Part frontier outpost, part campus town, it remains unclear whether Nusantara will grow into the metropolis Mr. Joko envisioned. Officials say its current population is about 155,000, but the area surrounding the Garuda monument and the new presidential palace is home to only 10,000 people, the vast majority of them construction workers.

Nusantara is projected to cover nearly 1,000 square miles, or roughly twice the size of Los Angeles. For now, the area is mostly trees. Vast empty spaces dominate. There are limited options for restaurants and groceries, although a traditional market is being built. And for all of its greenery, there is very little shade, making the midafternoon heat unbearable.

Electricity is supplied through a combination of solar power and the power grid, but the long-term goal is for the city to run fully on clean energy.

Read more

Brief Point

Let me reiterate a general point I’ve made in other posts. I don’t think there’s any actual reason we’re invading Venezuela or trying to decapitate its government or whatever we’re doing. I think there are two or three different factions in the government each pushing a very hostile policy toward Venezueala for differing reasons. Meanwhile, Trump thinks it’s cool and has a personal beef with Maduro. That combination of factors created a lot of forward momentum within the U.S. government with nothing pushing back in the opposite direction. That gets you to today. My point is that it’s a mistake to think there’s a “real” reason mixed in with other subterfuges and rationales, or that it’s important to find out which one the “real” reason is. It’s not that linear or logical.

First Thoughts on Trump’s Excellent Venezuela Adventure

Let me share a few thoughts about the U.S. action overnight in Venezuela. I say “action” because it’s not clear to me that the U.S. itself (as in the people calling the shots in Washington) know what this was, or have decided. I woke up in the middle of the night and saw the news of some major U.S. attack. That only registered a few WTFs in my mind. Then I woke up again at maybe 4 a.m. and saw at the least the claim that U.S. forces had captured and exfiltrated Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Then my WTFs escalated to 11.

When I woke up this morning I had a sense that this was essentially a raid, in the sense that we attacked and blew up a lot of things but with the central goal the capture of the head of state. That’s a raid and one that would keep the existing state in place, with perhaps the assumption that it would quickly crumble and be replaced by a friendlier government. But now the U.S. president is saying that the U.S. will “run” Venezuela for some undetermined period of time. At least to the best of my knowledge it’s not clear whether the U.S. has any military presence in Venezuela at all or that there’s been any effort to dismantle the current sovereign authorities beyond capturing the head of state. So back to the WTFs …

The U.S. pulled off what is, in purely tactical terms, a pretty impressive operation. (I mean, they blew into a country, captured the head of state apparently with little resistance and brought him back to the U.S.) But my strong assumption is that they now seem to be totally winging it. And winging it would fit with a lot of my understanding of the whole series of events leading up to last night. I don’t think there’s one reason we just kidnapped the Venezuelan president or blew up the boats or placed Navy assets in the region. I think there are a number of factions in the U.S. government each wanting something like this for different reasons. Trump himself mainly thought it would be cool. And lots of different factions wanting this for different reasons and the president thinking it was cool was enough to create the forward momentum to get here. But having gotten here we don’t have any clear idea of what we’re doing. I’ll note that to the extant we accept the premise that Nicolas Maduro committed crimes under U.S. law, capturing him in a quasi-law enforcement operation does not, to put it mildly, create a rationale let alone the legal warrant for occupying the country, running its government or retooling its oil industry. I assume this goes without saying.

A couple other thoughts.

I’ve heard a lot of people talking about not consulting with Congress or not receiving an authorization to U.S. force from Congress. I think this is far, far beyond what are essentially sub-constitutional technicalities. The U.S. president just went to war with another country and now will apparently occupy it for essentially no reason, with no warning and with public opinion overwhelming against all of it. Someone quipped on BlueSky last night that Trump hadn’t even taken the proper constitutional steps to lie the country into this war. This was more than just a funny line. Even lying the country into a war gives some due to the idea that the country is supposed to have some idea what the president is doing, why and some opportunity at least to register an opinion about it. Nor can any of this be separated from the broader domestic and global fabric of Trumpism, the casual illegality, the impetuousness and more than anything else the simple but always visible premise that Trump owns the United States, its military, its people, its wealth, everything. Someone told me earlier that this was like Trump taking his ICE raids global. And yeah, it pretty much is. Trump does what he wants, like one does with things one owns. You don’t ask your table what room it wants to be in and most employers don’t ask employees what tasks they want to do. In Trump’s mind he owns the country and its power. He won it fair and square in the 2024 election. Everything that stands in the way of that basic premise is an obstacle to be overturned.

Trump Ushers in a New Era of Imperial Rivalry

Let me take an initial crack at assessing what the United States has done in Venezuela with the proviso that time can easily prove such analyses mistaken. Donald Trump’s claimed takeover of Venezuela has been compared to what the American invasion aimed to do in Iraq in 2003, but I’d go back instead to the American intervention in the Spanish-American War in 1898 and its conquest and takeover of Cuba and the Philippines, about which I wrote in Folly of Empire

In those cases, the United States was entering into global wars of redivision (Lenin’s term in Imperialism), but as a latecomer and marginal world power. Such wars have not vanished. That’s what Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is about. But by taking over Venezuela, the United States has upped the ante and may have ushered in a new global era of imperial combat.

The earlier era, which began in 1871, led to two world wars, the breakdown of the international economy, and, after World War Two, decades of anti-colonial struggles. Trump’s attempt to take over Venezuela, coupled with his threats against Canada and Greenland (which must now be taken much more seriously) and his punitive and often irrational trade policy is creating the condition for a new era of global strife that could lead to disastrous wars.

I don’t pretend to understand why Trump did this. He seems to want Venezuela’s oil. There may be money in it for him and his family, or he may simply believe that America’s prosperity depends on controlling hemispheric energy production. Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American, seems to have wanted to break up the axis of Cuba and Venezuela. By taking over Venezuela’s oil, the thinking may go, the United States will be able to deprive Cuba of oil and strangle its economy. Some State Department strategists may have wanted to damage China’s economy by cutting off an important source of its oil. (In 2025, China purchased over 75 percent of Venezuela’s oil.)

But judging from the tenor of Trump’s speech Saturday, I would have to add a personal and political dimension. Trump may have wanted to cement his legacy and his immortality in the way that the kings and tyrants of old did it — through military conquest. I wouldn’t discount this explanation. I’ve always thought that the best comparison for Trump’s behavior was not Hitler or Mussolini, but the early English monarchs whose fame rested on their success in war and whose thirst for riches and for vengeance over their enemies foreign and domestic could not be slaked. Whatever the reason, Trump’s takeover of Venezuela spells trouble for the United States and the world.

Moments From Day 1 of the US Supposedly Running Venezuela

  • As you’ve no doubt seen by now, Trump held a press conference during which he stated that the U.S. will “run” Venezuela through a “a group.” He also talked a lot about oil.
  • Trump was asked about additional military involvement in the country to facilitate this plan to “run” it. “No, if Maduro’s vice president — if the vice president does what we want, we won’t have to do that,” he said. Venezuela’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has today been publicly reaffirming that Maduro remains president and demanding the U.S. release him.
  • Congress was not notified in advance of the strike, members have said and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed. “This was not the kind of mission that you can do congressional notification on,” Rubio said during Saturday’s press conference.
  • TPM noted in December that all of the administration’s saber rattling toward Venezuela had excited various 2020 “Stop the Steal” dead-enders — minor right-wing celebrities who claim that Venezuela played a part in a massive, international Marxist conspiracy to steal that election from Trump. Venezuelan opposition figure (and Nobel Peace Prize winner) María Corina Machado and other regime-change influencers had also embraced those conspiracy theories, presumably seeking to curry favor with Trump.

    Whether or not that campaign played a role in what happened overnight, the wild 2020 claims are still, clearly, on Trump’s mind: earlier today, the president mused during a Fox News interview that Venezuela’s 2024 election “wasn’t a hell of a lot worse than what they did to us in 2020.” International observers say Maduro soundly lost the 2024 election, but stayed in power anyway. Trump went on to describe the 2020 U.S. election as “a disgrace.”
  • As with Trump’s decision to bomb Iran in June, outgoing Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is not pleased with this latest, wild foreign adventurism: “Boomers and half of Gen X will cheer on neocon wars and talking points, but the other half of Gen X and majority on down see through it and hate it,” she wrote on X. She adds: “This is what many in MAGA thought they voted to end. Boy were we wrong.”
  • Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), another — and longstanding — thorn in Trump’s side in Congress, blasted the tension in the administration’s statements about what, exactly, they had done and are doing. “AG and others legally characterize attack in Venezuela as ‘arrest with military support,'” he wrote on X. “Meanwhile Trump announces he’s taken over the country and will run it until he finds someone suitable to replace him.” He also questioned whether Rubio’s assurance to Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) that this was essentially a fancy law enforcement occupation squared with Trump’s threat to attack Venezuela’s military.
  • I wrote this morning that there was no known indictment of Maduro’s wife, Cilia Flores. Now there is. In a superseding indictment, unsealed today, a grand jury in the Southern District of New York charges her and others with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices. Since Flores is also, according to the administration, being taken to New York, these charges are part of the dubious claim that this was all a law enforcement operation, not an effort at regime change, and not a violation of U.S. or international law.

    (Here, too, Massie observes the irony: “If this action were constitutionally sound, the Attorney General wouldn’t be tweeting that they’ve arrested the President of a sovereign country and his wife for possessing guns in violation of a 1934 U.S. firearm law,” he writes.)

This post has been updated.

Four international kidney exchange programs: 3 achieve substantial success

 Here's a paper reporting on the experience of four cross-border kidney exchange programs, whose experience teaches an important lesson.  In particular (see the figure below), one of  the programs is run by Spain, Italy and Portugal, whose  total population of approximately 118 million people is far larger than the combined population of the other three*, but manages to do less than 5% of the total cross-border exchanges, far fewer than any of the others.  Despite its size, the Spain-Italy-Portugal program only tries to match hard-to-match patient-donor pairs with other hard-to-match pairs, unlike the other three programs.

 International Kidney Paired Donation Programs: Evolution and Practices of 4 Large Collaborations
Klimentova, Xenia PhD1; Domínguez-Gil, Beatriz MD, PhD2; Viana, Ana PhD1,3; Manlove, David PhD4; Andersson, Tommy PhD5; Ashkenazi, Tamar RN, PhD6; Berlakovich, Gabriela MD7; Böhmig, Georg A. MD8; Burton, Jo RN, PGDip9; Coll, Elisabeth MD, PhD2; Dittmer, Ian FRACP9; Fiaschetti, Pamela MD10; Fronek, Jiri MD, PhD11; Hughes, Peter D. MBBS, PhD12,13; Ivo da Silva, Margarida MD14; Mor, Eytan MD15; Viklický, Ondřej MD, PhD16; Weinreich, Ilse Duus BMLS17; Ferrari, Paolo MD, FRACP18,19
Transplantation ():10.1097/TP.0000000000005602, December 24, 2025. | DOI: 10.1097/TP.0000000000005602



"Plain Language Summary: Kidney paired donation (KPD) programs are organized in various countries to facilitate the donation of kidneys from willing but incompatible donors by matching them with pairs in similar situations. These programs often struggle with an accumulation of difficult-to-match recipients and small pools of incompatible pairs. To address this, several international collaborations have emerged to expand the pool sizes and increase the number of transplants by “exchanging” donors’ kidneys across countries. We identified 4 established international KPD programs, each supported by protocols and agreements signed by the participating parties. Each program is presented separately, detailing its historical establishment, operational aspects, and statistics on pool characteristics and performance. Following this, we provide a comparative analysis of key aspects across the 4 programs. Each program has its unique context and specificities. Even though 3 of 4 collaborations started just before the COVID-19 pandemic, they have collectively facilitated >450 transplants. This underscores the importance of further developing these collaborations to share practices and experiences, and to facilitate more transplants, particularly for difficult-to-match recipients. Three of the 4 presented collaborations are either fully operated or led by European countries. This highlights the crucial role of ongoing international cooperation in the development of KPDs, in particular in Europe. By further promoting collaboration among countries, we can facilitate pan-European exchanges and improve access to live kidney transplants for patients in need.

 ...

"A fundamental difference between the programs is their collaboration model. STEP, ANZKX, and the Czech-Austrian-Israeli collaboration operate as “merged pool” model, where all participating pairs are combined for joint matching runs. For STEP and ANZKX, no other matching runs are conducted by partners at any level (hospital or national), whereas in the Czech-Austrian-Israeli collaboration, the Austrian and Israeli partners report performing local exchanges whenever compatible pairs are identified.
 

"In contrast, KEPSAT uses a “sequential pool” model, where national matches are attempted first, and only unmatched pairs are entered into the international pool. It is recognized that the last 2 strategy strategies may lead to a fragmented market, potentially limiting matches for highly sensitized patients, as easier-to-match pairs are removed beforehand."

 It's ironic that a program that appears to be intended primarily to help hard-to-match pairs is organized in a way that limits them in this way.

The paper concludes on an optimistic note (with which I fully agree):

"In conclusion, ongoing international cooperation is essential for advancing KPD programs globally. Expanding cross-border exchanges and improving access to kidney transplants can greatly benefit patients worldwide. Additional strategies, such as NDADs, desensitization protocols, and the inclusion of compatible pairs, can further enhance the effectiveness of both national and international programs. Oversight of these initiatives is crucial to safeguarding the welfare of both donors and recipients, as well as to maximizing the success rates of kidney transplants.
 

"Looking ahead, new initiatives, and projects, funded by international health organizations, such as the European Kidney Paired Exchange Programme project (https://www.hnbts.hu/euro-kep/project), funded by EU4Health and starting in November 2024, aim to expand global collaboration among KPD programs, building on and strengthening existing partnerships. This increased international cooperation is expected to create additional opportunities for patients in need of kidney transplants worldwide, making life-saving transplants accessible to more individuals regardless of their geographic location."

 ########

Earlier: Portuguese transplant docs noted the problem and argued for more global kidney exchange:

Tuesday, March 12, 2024 Kidney exchange between Portugal and Spain, and prospects for global kidney exchange

 ######### 

*Notes on population:

Spain: 49 million; Italy 59 million; Portugal 10 million ; KEPSAT total pop =  approx 118 million

 Australia 28 million; NZ 5 million: ANZKX total pop approx 33 million

Austria: 9 million, Czech Republic  11 million, Israel 10 million: AT-CZ-IL total 30 million

Sweden: 11 million; Norway:  6 million; Denmark 6 million; Finland  6 million: STEP total approx 29 mil

New Spanish communications satellite suffers ‘space particle’ impact

SpainSat NG 2

A Spanish military communications satellite launched in October was struck by what its operator described as a “space particle,” an incident that could jeopardize the spacecraft’s mission.

The post New Spanish communications satellite suffers ‘space particle’ impact appeared first on SpaceNews.

SpaceX launches next second-generation Italian COSMO-SkyMed satellite

MILAN – A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, successfully launched a second-generation satellite for Italy’s COSMO-SkyMed Earth observation constellation, on Jan. 2 at 6:09 p.m. Pacific time.   The Falcon 9 deployed COSMO-SkyMed CSG-FM3, the third into a sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 618 kilometers at 2:22 […]

The post SpaceX launches next second-generation Italian COSMO-SkyMed satellite appeared first on SpaceNews.

Space Force begins base network overhaul as cybersecurity demands grow

The Department of the Air Force is planning upgrades across 14 Space Force bases under the “Base Infrastructure Modernization” IDIQ contract

The post Space Force begins base network overhaul as cybersecurity demands grow appeared first on SpaceNews.

SpaceX, China drive new record for orbital launches in 2025

F9 165th launch

Orbital launch activity set another annual record in 2025, although future growth may depend on factors different from those that fueled the recent surge.

The post SpaceX, China drive new record for orbital launches in 2025 appeared first on SpaceNews.

Adam Smith markets in everything

Gustavo Dudamel — the Oscar L. Tang & H.M. Agnes Hsu-Tang Music & Artistic Director Designate — conducts the World Premiere of the wealth of nations, a highly anticipated commission from the Pulitzer Prize–winning composer David Lang. Inspired by economist Adam Smith’s 1776 magnum opus, Lang dramatizes this foundational work about economics as inspired by Handel’s treatment of Biblical texts in Messiah. “I want this work to be enjoyable and thought-provoking,” says Lang, “encouraging audiences to consider what we truly value.”

Here is the link.

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My top posts in 2025

Hello! This is my summary of 2025 and the “start here” post for new readers. Links and stats follow…

According to Fathom, my most trafficked posts of 2025 were (in descending order):

Here are all the most popular posts: 20 most popular in 2025.

Even more AI than last year.


My personal faves aren’t always the ones that get the most traffic…

  • Homing pigeons fly by the scent of forests and the song of mountains
  • Keeping the seat warm between peaks of cephalopod civilisation
  • Diane, I wrote a lecture by talking about it

Also MAGA fashion, pneumatic elevators, and what the play Oedipus is really about.

Check out my speculative faves from 2025.


Also check out the decade-long Filtered for… series.

Links and rambling interconnectedness. I like these ones.

Posts in 2025 include:

And more.

Here’s the whole Filtered for… series. 2025 posts at the top.


Looking back over 2025, I’ve been unusually introspective.

Possibly because I hit my 25th anniversary with this blog? (Here are my reflections and a follow-up interview.)

Or something else, who knows.

Anyway here’s a collection from this year:


In other writing, I…

A talk I did in June for a WIRED event has just broken a million views. Watch AI Agents: Your Next Employee, or Your Next Boss (YouTube).


PREVIOUSLY!


Other ways to read:

Or just visit the website: interconnected.org/home.

If you read a post you like, please do pass it along and share on the discords or socials or whatever new thing.

I like email replies. I like it when people send me links they think I’ll enjoy (they’re almost always correct). I especially like hearing about how a post has had a flapping-of-the-butterfly’s-wings effect somehow, whether personally or at work.

I like talking to people most of all. I started opening my calendar for Unoffice Hours over 5 years ago. 400+ calls later and it’s still the highlight of my week. Learn more and book a time here.


You should totally start a blog yourself.

Here are my 15 personal rules for blogging.

If you’re interested in my tech stack, here’s the colophon.

But really, use whatever tech makes it easy for you to write. Just make sure your blogging or newsletter platform lets you publish your posts with an RSS feed. That’s a great marker that you own your own words.


Stats for the stats fans.

  • 2025: 61 posts (58,160 words, 549 links)
  • 2024: 60 posts (62,670 words, 586 links)
  • 2023: 68 posts (69,067 words, 588 links)
  • 2022: 96 posts (104,645 words, 712 links)
  • 2021: 128 posts (103,682 words, 765 links)

My current streak: I’ve been posting weekly or more for 301 weeks.


Looking back over 2025, I’m increasingly straddling this awkward divide:

Where “everything else” is everything from policy suggestions on the need for a strategic fact reserve to going to algoraves to my other speculative faves this year.

Whereas the more bloggy spitball thoughts (which I love, and this is mainly what I wrote in 2020/21/22) are now relegated to occasional compilation posts a.k.a "scraps" – it would be great to give these more space but that doesn’t seem to be where my time is going.

I don’t know what to do about this.

I don’t know if I need to do anything about this.

One of the big reasons that I write here is that it’s my public notebook and so it’s this core sample that cuts across everything that I’m thinking about, which is indeed a weird admixture or melange, and that’s precisely the value for me because that’s how new ideas come, even if that makes this blog hard to navigate and many visitors will just bounce off.

All of which makes me appreciate YOU all the more, dear reader, for sticking with.

Happy 2026.


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What I’ve been reading

Michael Wachtel, Viacheslav Ivanov: A Symbolist Life.  615 pp. of what Russian/Soviet cultural life was like in the early 20th century.  Focuses on broader strands, rather than just the most famous names.  Ivanov today is largely forgotten, but he was at the time arguably the most influential figure of that period.  “They were mostly a bunch of nuts” is one of my takeaways.

Herbert Breslin and Anne Midgette, The King and I: The Uncensored Tale of Luciano Pavarotti’s Rise to Fame by his Manager, Friend, and Sometime Adversary.  Usually people tell me books like this are “delightful,” and then they bore me to tears.  This one actually is fantastically fun.  “To tell the truth, though, Luciano didn’t care about the money at the beginning.  In the early years, he never asked me how much he was going to get paid for a recital.  He had only one condition: it had to be sold out.”

Alan Manning, Why Immigration Policy is Hard and How to Make it Better is a thoughtful and balanced look at its topic, recommended.

Alex Mayyasi, Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces that Shape Your Life is a useful introduction to economic concepts.

Nicolas Niarchos, The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth is a good treatment of minerals issues as they relate to the Congo today.  It will not make you more bullish on Rwanda, or for that matter the Congo.

Eve MacDonald, Carthage: A New History covers what we do know about those people.  That isn’t much at the conceptual level, and I wonder why archaeology has not taught us more there.

I expect I will very much agree with Brink Lindsey, The Permanent Problem: The Uncertain Transition from Mass Plenty to Mass Flourishing.

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Talking With Eoin Higgins

Eoin Higgins is the author of “Owned: How Tech Billionaires on the Right Bought the Loudest Voices on the Left” and publisher of his own Substack. I heard Higgins give a book talk last summer, found it really interesting, then took notice when Matt Taibbi, one of those “loud voices,” sued Higgins on ludicrous grounds. So I thought it would be interesting to have a conversation.

Trying a new technique for video: Posting to my YouTube channel, which I will gradually populate.

Transcript follows.

. . .

TRANSCRIPT:
Paul Krugman in Conversation with Eoin Higgins

(recorded 12/30/25)

Paul Krugman: Hi everyone, Paul Krugman again. Back on duty, with some fresh content this week. I’m talking to Eoin Higgins, who’s the author of a really interesting book called Owned: How Tech Billionaires on the Right Bought the Loudest Voices on the Left, although the issues covered go a lot broader than that.

To be honest, I was inspired to talk to Eoin, who I’ve met and talked with before, but this time on camera, because one of the voices on the left, Matt Taibbi—who is one of the subjects of the book—has sued Eoin. We will avoid saying anything that might somehow prejudice that lawsuit, although it is truly absurd.

Welcome to the show.

Eoin Higgins: Thank you for having me. A pleasure to talk.

Krugman: I should mention the book’s subtitle focuses on the voices on the Right—now on the Right, formerly on the Left—Taibbi and Glenn Greenwald in particular. But most of the book is really about the background and so on. Do you want to give a quick summary of the theme of the book?

Higgins: The book primarily traces Glenn Greenwald’s career as well as Matt Taibbi’s career, and in parallel talks about the Silicon Valley billionaires who are behind the Tech-Right movement that currently has taken over a lot of conservative politics in the US, and the book looks at these parallel tracks. When we get to around 2020 or so, they converge. The argument of the book is really looking at how the Silicon Valley right-wing were able to buy up the alternative media ecosystem and create something where they were able to take it over, and in doing so, provide the opportunity for people like Greenwald and people like Taibbi to make money on these platforms. Which then came with its own incentives to continue to flatter and work toward the interests of this cohort.

Krugman: We should mention that one of the things to talk about is Substack: one of the investors is Marc Andreessen, who is definitely part of the “broligarchy” or whatever we want to call it, and very much part of this whole thing, which does raise questions—we’ll talk a little bit about Substack later on.

Let’s just start. The emergence of the tech-right, it’s a really startling thing, right? Not that long ago Silicon Valley leaned—certainly on social issues—left and got along okay with at least a fair number of Democrats, now it’s gone. Tell me, what do you think is driving this?

Higgins: They’re kind of two different tracks here. One is that the industry being in California, the relative youth of a lot of the people who work in Silicon Valley and have worked there traditionally did make this a sector where the politics certainly seemed to be liberal—socially liberal, certainly. The people who were in charge, people like Andreessen, people like Musk, people like Peter Thiel, those who are running companies or investing in companies, big movers and shakers. Within this space, they’ve actually all always been relatively conservative. But it also hasn’t really been something—with the exception of Thiel—that really mattered until about 10 or 15 years ago.

Probably about ten years ago, there’s a shift in how they’re perceived. But up until then, most of the public discourse around the tech companies—most, not all—was pretty laudatory: “these are cool gadgets that they’re giving us. These are cool things that we have. This industry is doing a lot of good for the country and for the economy.” But around 2015 or so that really started to change. There’s a lot more criticism now. There had been some stuff earlier, Peter Thiel famously sued and tried to kill Gawker and successfully did because—among other things—they had outed him back in 2007-2008. He was angry about that and he launched a campaign that finally came to fruition in 2016 with taking down Gawker. This was because of the Valley Wag blog, which was a Gawker project that kind of treated the tech industry like a gossip blog. It was very critical, but this was for the most part the way that Silicon Valley was treated—I think the mainstream press was pretty laudatory.

Then around like ten years ago, 2014-2015, that started to change. In 2016, when Trump was elected, the part of the backlash to that election from the liberal mainstream and the Democratic Party was to look for reasons that this might have happened. One of the reasons that they really latched on to was social media, and social media are these companies that are controlled by these very powerful people in Silicon Valley, and they didn’t particularly care for being criticized, particularly Andreessen, who already was shifting to the right, and got really angry about this.

Musk got annoyed—he didn’t own Twitter (or X now) at the time—but he started to slowly kind of shift to the right. Thiel brought all of these billionaires, these tech guys in to meet Trump right after he got elected. Which, by the way, it’s not conspiratorial, that’s very normal for industry, you want to meet with the person who’s in charge. I don’t think that there’s anything particularly evil about that, or anything to look for that is conspiracy. But these guys had all been criticizing Trump in the lead up to that and then all met with him, didn’t mention any of the things that he was going to do that were offensive, etc.. They worked with him.

2020 with the pandemic, I think that really kind of launched these guys all the way to the right to be outwardly to the right. Their reaction to the pandemic, their reaction to generally where the Democratic Party was at that point shifted them publicly to the right. Then after Trump lost, and now the Black Lives Matter protests were part of this too, they were very angry about a lot of the things that they were saying. So around 2020, I think is when you see the really hard shift.

Krugman: It’s interesting because the thought of Silicon Valley as being libertarian, and it turns out that they’re libertarian until people start criticizing them, what strikes me is that I think this is somewhat different from the robber baron era, if we think of the Gilded Age and all of that. Obviously, the robber barons didn’t like being criticized and owned a lot of newspapers and so on. But I don’t think anybody tried to shut Ida Tarbell down, this is kind of a new development.

Higgins: I mean, they went after Tarbell, as far as I recall—but not as blatantly—not using the levers of power in the same way that they have used these now. I think that you’re right, that there is a big difference between the robber baron Gilded Age time and now. I think that it’s for a few reasons. One of them is that these companies—these people—have made their fortunes in part based on government largesse. The government basically has helped Silicon Valley to develop into the economic powerhouse that it is. It obviously helped the robber barons as well.

I wonder if it’s that they feel like they’re just owed this by the public and by the state and that therefore, they get angry about it if they don’t receive it. I’m not sure, that’s speculation of course, but there’s also this feeling of noblesse oblige. I think that you had more during the Gilded Age with the robber barons, and you just don’t really see that with these guys. They don’t think that they owe anybody anything. I think like you aptly described, as this libertarian twist to their politics. It’s like libertarianism up until the point that something happens that I don’t like. At which point I want the state to step in and to enforce what I want to happen. I think that they do think of things that way, and I think they don’t really appreciate that they live in a society, that’s a lot of what it is. I think they don’t appreciate that they live in a society, and they don’t think that they have any obligation to the rest of society, or the rest of the country. I think that’s a big difference between the two worlds.

Krugman: Which is odd given how much, as you say, there’s a much more direct role of government contracts in Silicon Valley than—the government was a pretty small entity back then—the late 19th century, but it’s a big factor. You have these people who act as if they were completely independent pioneers. “I made it all myself and thank you Pentagon for the latest check.”

Higgins: Exactly.

Krugman: One thing that strikes me is that this is not a question of “why is the latest cohort of tech billionaires so much more conservative than the previous one?” These are the same guys. I think part of it is that these are people who 10-15 years ago were everybody’s folk heroes and have lost that status and are not taking it well.

Higgins: I agree, I think that they are upset. In the book I talked to Margaret O’Meara, and she pointed me toward this section of a Teddy Roosevelt speech where he talks about the man in the arena, in part of the speech he says “it’s not the critic that counts.” What he’s essentially saying is that anyone who is simply criticizing what you’re doing when you are the man in the arena—you’re the person who is doing the thing—that they’re just kind of haters, that’s basically the idea here. She said that these guys really take that to heart, they really believe that they are the ones who are out there, they are at the frontlines of innovation in developing the world and taking things to the next level. Anyone who has a problem with that, for whatever reason, they are just doing nothing except criticizing, and they shouldn’t really be listened to.

She said that if you take that speech as an example of the ideology, it can show you where these guys are, how they think about this stuff. I thought that was really sharp.

Krugman: To some extent, this looks a little bit like a midlife crisis for some guys who struck a big one quite young. Not being young happens to all of us...

Higgins: I think Marc Andreessen was a really instructive case. I think he’s really interesting. There’s a reason that he drives a lot of the background of the book and that is that he co-creates Netscape Navigator in his early 20s right out of school after creating a precursor to it that was then taken by the college, which was part of the deal. But I could understand why that would make you upset. Microsoft sees Netscape Navigator as a threat, and basically uses its monopoly to kill it. So Andreessen goes and basically is behind this charge to break up Microsoft. So you get the government to step in for him. The government does, but at that point it’s too late: Netscape is dead, he goes and he becomes a VC. It takes him a little while to have some success with that, but then he eventually does. While I don’t share his politics and while I’d like to think that I wouldn’t come to the same conclusions that he came to, it is very easy to see how at his age, in his 50s, he would be this conservative guy, having had these experiences from when he was in his 20s, an innovative thinker.

As you said 10 to 15 years ago, these guys were heroes. It’s the same people. It’s not these new tech leaders, It’s the same guys. And if you think that we’ve been dealing with them for 10, 15, 20, 30 years and they’re all in their 50s or 60s, that means that they experienced a lot of success when they were in their 20s and 30s, and they have grown into middle age doing this and having these experiences.

Krugman: I think it was Joyce Carol Oates who just wrote a little thing about how sad it is that Elon Musk appears to have no life. He went completely batshit over that—sorry, technical language here.

Higgins: He just seems to me to be a very insecure person. It would be one thing if that insecurity manifested itself in just making bad, maybe profane jokes, but obviously it’s manifesting itself in ways that I think are a lot worse than that.

Krugman: Then—our parallel track in the book—you follow the careers of several people, but I think the Greenwald may be the centerpiece, Taibbi in second place, and then I don’t know what we call it now, but New Age Journalism—the partially-online world of journalism that emerged maybe 15 or so years ago—and it is interesting that the two guys you profiled in particular were at least celebrities on the left and both deny that they’ve actually turned right, but in practice are doing that. What’s your interpretation?

Higgins: “Did they turn to the Right or did the Left turn away from them?” That’s kind of the question that is asked when people turn to the Right. Quite frankly, that’s usually what they say. I would start with Glenn and I would just say that his politics have always been slightly more civil libertarian than strictly leftist, although certainly in the late 2000s to early 2010s he was about as close to being a Democratic partisan as you could see someone like him being, his writing at Salon and then at the Guardian definitely aligned with a lot of mainstream and close-to-mainstream liberals. He was very friendly with Chris Hayes, very friendly with Rachel Maddow, very friendly with Charlie Pierce. I mentioned the three of them because he’s talked about them in not so nice language since then. But I think it is important to remember that he was this guy, this is the way that he did talk about these guys. He blurbed Maddow’s book. I think he blurbed Hayes’s book as well. Again, I’m just bringing them up because they’re big celebrities in liberal media. But I did a study before I wrote the book, I did a study of the way that he talked about Fox News, before and after they started having him on. And it was, at least on Twitter, it was night and day. He called them “disgraceful”, and “conspiratorial.” Then once he was on there, it was like he was an employee. The other side of that is the way that he talked about MSNBC when he was on there a lot was very laudatory, very complimentary. And then when they stopped having him on, it became very insulting. So I think that has something to do with his political shift. I think as well he was—and in my mind, I think rightfully—disgusted and angry with a lot of the things that Obama did, that were continuations, in his view, of the sins of the Bush administration with the “war on terror”. I think that’s a principled stand that he took. I think that whether you agree with it or not, it wasn’t coming from anything other than expecting a change where maybe there wasn’t one, or not the change that he may have wanted. I think once Trump was elected, he was a pretty consistent critic of the Russia-gate stuff. That kind of snowballed itself into being kind of anti-anti-Trump. Then by the time 2020 comes around with the pandemic again—I’m returning to that again, 2020 being the pivot point—he leaves the intercept with which he had founded for First Look Media, and he goes off on his own on Substack, part of this change is propelled by his appearances on Tucker Carlson, certainly on Fox News—as well as other Fox News shows, but mostly on Tucker Carlson. Since then he has been, for the most part I would say, a conservative pundit.

I think he occupies a space now in conservative punditry, which is an interesting part of—I don’t even know if I would call it a civil war, there are a bunch of different factions in conservative media that are battling—but the one that he’s in is this certainly anti-Israel, anti-the-war-in-Gaza, but also kind of sort of anti-imperialist as well, while having some social beliefs that I think would tilt further to the right than he used to be. Tucker Carlson is kind of like this too, although Glenn is not a Christian nationalist like Tucker is. But there is this kind of lane, right? There’s this one avenue that I think Glenn is in right now. He’s pretty well ensconced in. So he has reinvented himself a few times over the last few years. But the one trajectory I think that has been the same is that he has been a conservative.

Krugman: And Taibbi... I don’t want to say too much because of the lawsuit, I remember post-financial crisis he was one of the most extravagantly critical. “Goldman Sachs is a vampire squid, attaching itself to the nation’s face,” or something like that.

Higgins: Yeah I mean, “the blood funnel,” all this stuff is in the book. It’s not in the lawsuit, so I have no problem talking about this. Taibbi really started his career doing an expat paper in Moscow, came back to the U.S., worked his way through a few different publications and ended up at Rolling Stone, which is where he wrote that famous line.

He did a lot of political reporting. I would say that he was kind of more of a partisan liberal at that time even than Greenwald was. Really just anti-Republican, of course he had critiques to make of Democrats, I think that any pundit or reporter worth their salt is willing to throw punches on either side. But I would say that Taibbi’s attacks on Republicans were more vicious and personal than Greenwald’s were, kind of going with Taibbi’s whole Hunter S. Thompson affect.

What happened to him really is that #MeToo happened. That came out. He also had spoken out against the Russiagate stuff and has had experience with the same liberal mainstream consequences that Glenn did. But Matt wanted to—this is my interpretation of what he did—it seems like he wanted to reset himself with the liberal mainstream. So he wrote this book called I Can’t Breathe about Eric Garner. I think this was supposed to be like his moment to really reset himself. Right as he was about to go on book tour, the #MeToo movement hit, and about a month later all of his writing about women at the Exile—which is the paper in Moscow—came out. And it really just torpedoed his reputation in liberal spaces. He seems to have been very wounded by that. Over time, again we get to 2020, and he goes anti-vax. He goes further and further to the right. He’s not with Rolling Stone anymore, now he’s just on his Substack and eventually this turns out to get him noticed by some allies of Elon Musk who then refer him over for the Twitter Files.

Krugman: He described the pandemic as a big turning point for a bunch of people, both the tech bros and some of the journalists, which I find a little bit puzzling because if you’re writing for a living, remote work—my life was surprisingly undisrupted by the whole thing. I’m not quite sure why it hit people so hard.

Higgins: I share your feeling on it, especially as far as work went—it didn’t really change things too much, it just meant that I didn’t go into the office where I was working at the time, I just wrote from home.

Let’s take them individually, and then as a group. I would say first of all, for Greenwald, he’s always been reflexively contrarian. My interpretation of his actions and the way that he behaves, I think for him it was like, “well, everyone’s talking about Black Lives Matter. Everyone’s talking about how we have to get vaccinated. Everyone’s talking about how we have to shut down. If that’s the general consensus, then there must be something to complain about.” Fair enough. I think that in the beginning, he took the pandemic quite seriously. But he had his things. I think that one big thing was that he got mad that people were protesting for Black Lives Matter because “we were supposed to be in a lockdown” and it was “liberal hypocrisy,” or something like that. That’s kind of standard conservative punditry. But you can kind of see things changing a little bit there. Also there was the election. I put his real shift to 2020, but I think that it was the confluence of a number of factors. I think for him it was less the pandemic exactly, and more just all the stuff that was happening. It just kind of shoved him into this—well, I don’t want to take away his agency—I think that he kind of shoved himself into this corner, that’s where he wanted to go. I have heard through the grapevine that maybe the inciting incident for him leaving The Intercept was him wanting to write about the Hunter Biden laptop. At the time that he wanted to write about it, there was no way to know that the contents were real. I wrote about this before I wrote the book, I saw the email exchanges and the editors were basically saying, “we can’t say this stuff because we don’t really know how this person got this laptop. This might all be true, but we just don’t know. With the election coming, it could be a ratfuck. We want to make sure that we’re doing the right thing here.”

For Taibbi, I don’t really know what it was about the pandemic. Maybe it was that he saw that he could get a new audience by leaning all the way into ivermectin and anti-vax stuff and hydroxychloroquine and all of this stuff. But that’s what he did. I think he saw an angle on the Left, to present himself as someone who was saying the same things Trump was saying, but saying them in a lefty way. I don’t really know what his motivation was. All I know is that if you look at where he ended up, right by the time that Biden wins—not even talking about January 6th here—but by the time Biden wins he’s pretty solidly on the right. He starts, at least, to express some views on trans rights that I think were certainly offensive to some people on the left, myself included; his anti-vax stuff, I thought was just lunacy, quite frankly. It reminded me of this guy, Jimmy Dore. I hope that nobody in your audience really knows who that is. But if they do, he’s a pretty crazy figure, another marginal fringe anti-vax figure. But the point is, that over the course of the year of 2020, Taibbi really ended up in this space where he was not only anti-vax and not only having these kind of right wing, social conservative beliefs, but believing because there was all this backlash to people espousing these views at the time, that that was evidence of this great liberal anti-speech censorship conspiracy. That would carry through to his reporting on the Twitter Files.

Krugman: We’ll get to the Twitter Files in a bit, but now I’ve been trying to think about rereading your book and in political science we talk about the horseshoe theory, which is that the far left and the far right are actually, in some ways, closer to each other than either is to the center. But this isn’t exactly that. It’s more that people whose brand is being provocative and contrarian, that is quite easily switched from Left to Right, that’s how I read it.

Higgins: I think whatever the dominant culture is, you just switch from the left to the right, or you act in opposition to one or the other. The interesting thing is now that because of the shifts that these guys have made, it’s very hard for them to pivot back. It’s very hard for them to switch back to the left. And as you say, this isn’t horseshoe theory because, for instance, during the Bush administration how I felt about the war in Iraq and how a Ron-Paul-person might have felt about the war in Iraq may have been similar, on the surface, we may broadly agree on that, but we didn’t really agree on why that was or really anything else. I think that what these guys are doing is just reflexive contrarianism. But as I said, I think at this point they are kind of locked in. I don’t think that they can move back left.

Krugman: I think in a lot of ways, playing contrarian in the midst of an attempt at authoritarian takeover is probably not going to get you a lot of credit. If we ever get out of this, if democracy ever comes back. At times, writing through all of this financial crisis at the New York Times and also just being who I am in the kind of gonzo Hunter Thompson sort of stuff, I kind of envied guys who were able to do that. But even if I hadn’t had the institutional constraints, that’s not who I am. It was entertaining, but it turns out that it’s very easy. It doesn’t give you a lot of grounding, at a certain point you have to say, “some things are right and some things are wrong,” and that’s not how it worked for these guys.

Higgins: Some of the people who I spoke to for the book, their criticisms of Taibbi were that his analysis was always pretty superficial. I think that goes with what you’re saying, that he may have been having fun with talking about the vampire squid and stuff like that, but what was he really saying? I think that’s debatable, I’m not really sure where I come down on that. I wasn’t a huge Taibbi fan at the time. I was much more of a Greenwald fan. If I was a fan of one of them–which I was—I was a fan of Greenwald. But Taibbi’s stuff didn’t really click with me in the same way. Not that I disliked it. It was just not really my thing. So I get where they’re coming from.

Krugman: So the role of money…at no point in the book do you say these guys were or were straight out bribed to adopt positions, not that that sort of thing doesn’t happen—quite a lot, actually. Much more we’re finding out than I would have imagined. But it’s a lot subtler, which is generally true of the role of money in the political landscape, people who think that it’s all about campaign contributions or whatever, that’s just one of the many ways in which money makes its weight felt. I want to talk in general about monetary incentives that can warp journalistic endeavors.

Higgins: I’ll start with Greenwald, not because I don’t want to talk about Taibbi, I will. But I think the Greenwald thing is very instructive. So Glenn goes to Substack. He doesn’t get a deal to do this, there’s no evidence of that, he just goes there. He has a massive audience, he brings it with him. I think he said that he was making more money than at The Intercept relatively quickly. He aligns himself, in my view, with a lot of the beliefs of the tech billionaires, or at least he’s not challenging them. Then years later, he’s getting invited to go to the Balaji Srinivasan conference in the Netherlands, which he told me was a good excuse for a vacation. He tried to distance himself a little bit from the stuff that Srinivasan believes, and this network state stuff.

I think that he has been seen for speaking fees, he and Taibbi both appeared at the All-in podcast conference. That’s my recollection off the top of my head, but I’m pretty sure they were both there. I’m sure that they didn’t do it for free, right? So there are monetary incentives that exist; “once you’re in, you’re in.” That also means it’s hard to get out. It’s hard to then criticize the people whose network is paying you money, the extra money on top of what you make to do all this different stuff. Maybe they’re just not criticizing aspects of the tech sector that I think that maybe I think they should because they just don’t believe that those aspects should be criticized. Maybe Glenn thought crypto was really great because he really did think crypto was really great, not because Jack Dorsey was promising to give a donation to his dog Charity. At the same time Jack was endorsing crypto. Maybe, but I just find that kind of hard to believe. It is in the same way, as I detail in the book, Taibbi benefiting from Elon Musk, choosing him to interpret these cherry picked, internal documents and calling them in the Twitter Files; to say his audience didn’t increase would be ludicrous. We all saw it increase. That’s what happened. So there are very clear ways that people with more power and influence can approach people who have power and influence and offer them even more and offer them the opportunity to see their role kind of expand in the discourse and monetarily.

Krugman: I see this all the time, even aside from journalism, if you’re an academic economist with some foot in the policy world, there are just a lot of—individually, quite innocent—but a lot more doors are open if you’re right leaning than if you’re left leaning. It’s what always makes people who think that there’s this massive left wing bias in academia seem foolish. Certainly not in my corner of academia. The incentives are all the other way.

Higgins: I mean, it’s the same with history, which is my academic background and my dad’s academic background. If you’re a historian who has a left wing or a liberal background that doesn’t distinguish you from the rest of the field. But if you’re a historian like Niall Ferguson, then there are a lot of opportunities that are open to you.

Krugman: Ferguson, on economics as well, got quite a lot of attention for saying things that were just flatly wrong, you know?

Higgins: Well, having read his books, that would track. (laughs)

Krugman: The gravitational pull of money is out there, but some of it clearly was in this case really targeted. There’s a specific kind of chat group, right?

Higgins: Yeah that’s not in the book, that reporting came out later, it was people like Marc Andreessen, and David Sacks and Jason Kalacanis I believe, then Matt Iglesias, I think was in one of them, maybe Noah Smith, this is more of a center to center-right thing than these maybe more mainstream guys. These powerful figures are certainly speaking to journalists. They are speaking to pundits who kind of align with their politics.

Krugman: In the world of actual officialdom, we talk about the revolving door and it’s definitely the case that without there being outright corruption, people handing over bags of money, which also does happen, the lure of big money is always there.

Let’s talk a little bit about Substack, which is interesting because one of the things that you do emphasize is that Glenn Greenwald for a while, and Taibbi still, are earning money on Substack and Substack is—I don’t know what share of it is Andreessen—but he’s certainly one of the backers. I’m trying to figure out how this works. I appreciate that Substack has got some backing from people who are part of broligarchy, the tech bro thing. You argue that Substack actually has favored the right, which I have to say maybe would be true, but it’s not really visible from where I sit. But maybe there are things I don’t know, deals I don’t know about, and all that.

Higgins: A couple of things here, and I’ll take that last point last, but the first thing I’ll say is that Greenwald and Taibbi were both on Substack. Greenwald now is with the right wing YouTube clone, Rumble. Exclusively, his writing has to go on to their blog as well as part of his deal that he signed with them. Taibbi is still on Substack, which he joined when he was still at Rolling Stone, and the loophole was that he could write a book there. So he could write his book chapter by chapter on Substack while not having any kind of overlap with the conditions of his employment with Rolling Stone. His book Hate Inc. is the book that he wrote on Substack. What I would say about that is that it’s very clear when you read it that he wrote it as a blog, without a lot of editing. Having said that, they did make a lot of money on that. Substack takes a percentage. It is their business model. The reason that I use Substack, I’ve been on there since 2018 or 2019: the user interface is just really good. The user experience is very good. It’s just very easy to use in a way that other platforms simply are not, in my experience. I think that’s one of its strengths that it has, it’s very easy to just get up and running with it. It got an infusion of capital—I believe it was in 2019—funding round led by Andreessen-Horowitz. Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz’s venture capital firm, and after that infusion of capital a number of us who were on there already started to notice that they were promoting a lot of right wing voices. One thing they were doing, I think it was called “Substack Pro,” where they would give you a year of expected revenue to get you to come over to Substack into and to write on their and the deal was the basically they would give you this revenue to come over, but if you made anything more than that, they would just pocket all of it. Then after that year you were on your own. For some people this worked out really well for them: for a year, they got to do whatever they wanted. Then they either cobbled it together from their revenue there, or from freelancing or what have you, or they moved on.

For some people—Yglesias has talked about this a number of times—he took the deal, he went over there and he made Substack so much money; just for the first year, he made hundreds of thousands of dollars. He would have pocketed that money, but that’s the risk. That’s the risk that you have to take. The business is also taking the risk as well to fund you. The thing that we noticed is they seemed to be enticing more right wing voices—not sure who was on a Substack Pro deal or not.

There seemed to be a more right wing tilt to the company at that time, to what was getting promoted to the front page. This was happening after the Andreessen infusion of money, I’m not saying there’s a smoking gun or there’s proof of this, I’m just saying that this is what we observed happening, that there was a lot of right wing movement to Substack, and it seemed that they were promoting it and that this was noticeable to myself and other people who were observing it after Andreessen put money into it.

This Substack is one of the most popular ones, right? You’re top ten?

Krugman: If we look at U.S politics: of the top ten, eight are either kind of center left or kind of never-Trumper former Republicans. Only two, Taibbi at number ten and Barry Weiss up at number one, are right leaning, and I’m number seven which is great. Enough so that if I had been offered Substack Pro—I don’t know if they still do that—but I would have been really sorry if I’d taken it.

Higgins: Heather Cox Richardson, that’s another, she’s gotta be number two or three?

Krugman: She’s #2 or #3.

Higgins: I think the part of that though may as well be a reaction to how politics have changed over the last years, because as I recall, back five years ago Andrew Sullivan was up there and Greenwald and Taibbi and all these right leaning figures especially as Biden was elected in the wake of the pandemic, in the wake of the Black Lives Matter protests. I think the top ten now, as it stands, has been stable for quite a while. But in the time period that I’m talking about is 4 or 5 years ago. As I recall, the top ten tilted more to the right. The stuff that was kind of getting pushed onto the feeds tended to be for the Right.

Krugman: I wonder also, to some extent, if that may have been what people actually wanted, and it’s also possibly a misjudgment on the part of a management that they didn’t understand. Who would have predicted Heather Cox Richardson?

Higgins: She found a niche and she has really exploited it to a crazy degree. It’s amazing what she’s been able to do.

Krugman: 2.7 million—but who’s counting—subscribers, people want that sort of earnestness, they don’t want, it turns out, the fireworks. That’s what I’ve been finding.

Higgins: She consistently puts forward a view of politics and history that is really palatable to a wide audience, and that’s really hard to do.

Krugman: I would say—we’re being self-referential here, but—everybody who’s above me on the list, except for Free Press, earns that position by doing real reporting, by doing really hard work, or let’s put it this way: if they start to play around with it, if they try to do an X (Musk takeover) to Substack, if the tech guys wanted to, it’s all pocket change to them, so if they want to destroy the financial base of it, they can afford to do that, but it would destroy the financial base because that’s not what people are looking for.

Higgins No, they’re not. At this point, my overarching view of what they’ve been able to do with Substack, what they wanted to do to disrupt the media, has already been done. So it’s already been a success. Elon Musk investing in Twitter and turning it into X was done because he wanted to control that information space, explicitly wanted to control that information space. When I look at things like Substack, Colin, and—it’s gone now, but—the podcasting network that I had a show on that David Sacks funded, and Rumble, the YouTube clone that has taken a lot of money from Peter Thiel, these other platforms that have come and gone, they have existed to decentralize the media and power them. I think the “power” part is really important. To take these prolific writers and these prolific personalities in the media and to take them from these institutions where they are, and to bring them out and to just diffuse things. I’m not even saying that that is necessarily a bad thing at all. I’m just saying that they’re not doing it because they want to have more voices out there. They’re not doing it because they want to have good investigative reporting from Substack and The New York Times and The Washington Post and wherever else. They’re doing it because they want to de-power a media structure that they feel has not treated them the way that they want to be treated.

Krugman: The whole media news enterprise is such a financial midget compared with these things, it is kind of almost funny for them to be concerned about it, but it nonetheless matters a lot.

Higgins: That’s a really good way to look at CBS news and what’s happening with CBS news, right? That doesn’t make a lot of money. It can shape opinion, but it doesn’t make a lot of money. If the Ellison’s lose money, CBS news loses like tens of millions of dollars a year as it is, if they lose more money on it, turning it into a propaganda network, they don’t care, that doesn’t matter. It is really funny, they do still really care though, that the media is nice to them, because they do understand the importance of the information landscape.

Krugman: I have to say, it really is astonishing to me, given what my daily mail looks like, that these guys have such thin skins. I mean, my God, they would go berserk with just one day’s haul of my email.

I used to envy the showboating guys a little bit, for their ability. But after your book, I was thinking, “thank God,” being a little bit dull, at least in terms of presentation, has its virtues.

Your new book is really fascinating, and quite a portrait of the world.

Higgins: Thank you very much.

Quoting Jaana Dogan

I'm not joking and this isn't funny. We have been trying to build distributed agent orchestrators at Google since last year. There are various options, not everyone is aligned... I gave Claude Code a description of the problem, it generated what we built last year in an hour.

It's not perfect and I'm iterating on it but this is where we are right now. If you are skeptical of coding agents, try it on a domain you are already an expert of. Build something complex from scratch where you can be the judge of the artifacts.

[...] It wasn't a very detailed prompt and it contained no real details given I cannot share anything propriety. I was building a toy version on top of some of the existing ideas to evaluate Claude Code. It was a three paragraph description.

Jaana Dogan, Principal Engineer at Google

Tags: anthropic, claude, ai, claude-code, llms, ai-assisted-programming, google, generative-ai

Was Daft Punk Having a Laugh When They Chose the Tempo of Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger?

Was Daft Punk Having a Laugh When They Chose the Tempo of Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger?

Depending on how you measure it, the tempo of Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger appears to be 123.45 beats per minute.

This is one of those things that's so cool I'm just going to accept it as true.

(I only today learned from the Hacker News comments that Veridis Quo is "Very Disco", and if you flip the order of those words you get Discovery, the name of the album.)

Via Kottke

Tags: music

SpaceX launches first Starlink deployment mission since problem strikes satellite

SpaceX launches the Starlink 6-88 mission from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Jan. 4, 2026. This was the company’s first Starlink mission of the year and the first Falcon 9 launch from the Eastern Range of 2026. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now


Update Jan. 4, 3:38 a.m. EST (0838 UTC): SpaceX confirms deployment of the 29 Starlink satellites.

SpaceX launched its first Starlink mission since one of its satellites in orbit was knocked out of action in an incident on Dec. 17.

Liftoff of the Starlink 6-88 mission happened at 1:48 a.m. EST (0648 UTC) from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The rocket flew on a south-easterly trajectory after a nearly two-hour delay, likely due to poor weather conditions.

The mission was originally scheduled launch on Dec. 19, but was delayed when SpaceX lost contact with Starlink satellite number 35956, which was launched Nov. 23, 2025, from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The satellite was orbiting at an altitude of 418 km.

“The anomaly led to venting of the propulsion tank, a rapid decay in semi-major axis by about 4 km, and the release of a small number of trackable low relative velocity objects,” SpaceX said in a social media post on Dec. 18.

Two days later, on Dec. 20, Michael Nicolls, the vice president of Starlink Engineering, took to social media to share imagery of the satellite collected by Vantor’s (formerly known as Maxar Intelligence) WorldView-3 satellite on Dec. 20 that showed the satellite was “largely intact.”

“Additional data suggest that there is a small number of trackable debris objects from the event, and we expect the satellite and debris to reenter and fully demise within weeks,” Nicolls wrote.

Former astronaut Ed Lu, founder & Chief Technology Officer of Leolabs, a company that provides real-time orbital tracking data, said the company’s radar had detected hundreds of objects.

“As per usual, these objects tend to spread out along the orbital track, and have already spread out over 6000km,” said Lu.

In its original social media post, SpaceX said it was taking the incident very seriously: “Our engineers are rapidly working to root cause and mitigate the source of the anomaly and are already in the process of deploying software to our vehicles that increases protections against this type of event.”

The satellites for the Starlink 6-88 were already at the launch pad inside the rocket’s payload fairing, but were returned to SpaceX’s processing facility at HangarX on Dec. 19 in the wake of the in-orbit incident, presumably to allow modifications.

SpaceX launches the Starlink 6-88 mission from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Jan. 4, 2026. This was the company’s first Starlink mission of the year and the first Falcon 9 launch from the Eastern Range of 2026. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

Sunday’s Falcon 9 rocket launch, the first from Florida in 2026, added 29 Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites to the megaconstellation which now numbers more than 9,300 satellite in orbit, according to stats maintained by astronomer and expert orbital tracker, Jonathan McDowell.

On Saturday, the 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 30 percent chance for favorable weather at the opening of the launch window, which improves to 70 percent as time goes on. Meteorologists said a cold front will be moving through the area during the launch opportunity.

“Model solutions have great agreement on timing with the worst weather likely occurring at the front of the window, as band of showers (that likely triggers the Cumulus Cloud Rule) moves through around midnight,” launch weather officers wrote. “There is also good model agreement for improvement into the window, with lingering thick clouds being the main concern by the end.”

SpaceX launched the Starlink 6-88 mission on a brand new Falcon 9 booster, as the company continues to add to its fleet. There were eight new boosters that debuted in 2025 and six introduced in 2024.

The new booster, believed to bear the tail number of 1101, landed on a drone ship, called ‘Just Read the Instructions,’ positioned in the Atlantic Ocean to the northeast of The Bahamas, about 8.5 minutes after liftoff.

This was the 147th landing on this vessel and the 555th booster landing for SpaceX to date.

Building on records

The predawn flight planned for Sunday comes after a year of big growth for the Starlink component of SpaceX’s business.

In its annual progress report published just after the new year, SpaceX said it closed out 2025 with a total of more than nine million global customers across more than 155 countries and markets. It said it had added more than 35 new markets over the year as well as 4.6 million customers.

Last year, SpaceX launched 122 Falcon 9 rockets carrying Starlink satellites onboard, deploying 3,168 into low Earth orbit. Among those were 286 that supported the Direct to Cell component of the constellation.

“With enhancements to the V2 Mini satellite design, we began launching more satellites on each Starlink mission, adding more than 270 Tbps of capacity to the constellation this year,” SpaceX stated in its report.

The company attributed its ability to ramp up launch cadence to “Starlink’s vertical manufacturing for satellite production and our relentless commitment to recovering and reusing Falcon 9 first stage boosters and payload fairings.”

SpaceX launches the Starlink 6-88 mission from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Jan. 4, 2026. This was the company’s first Starlink mission of the year and the first Falcon 9 launch from the Eastern Range of 2026. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

SpaceX also touted the rollout of its Direct to Cell service, citing its operation across 22 countries with more than six million monthly customers. It completed the first generation of its DTC network with the launch of the Starlink 12-26 mission in mid-June.

“Operating at 360 kilometers above the surface of the Earth, Direct to Cell satellites fly lower than any other constellation in order to optimize the link between the cell phone and satellite,” SpaceX wrote. “Starlink Direct to Cell is the largest and most robust in-space communications provider for unmodified cellular devices—and the only one actively serving customers.”

Another company, AST SpaceMobile, is also looking to compete in this space of bringing cellular reception and data to unmodified phones and recently launched its sixth BlueBird satellite from India in December. The BlueBird 7 satellite is in Florida and will be launched on a Falcon 9 rocket likely in the coming weeks.

Coming up…

On Jan. 1, Nicolls announced on social media that the roughly 4,400 Satelink satellites currently orbiting at about 550 km (342 mi) will be lowered to an altitude of about 480 km (298 mi). The action is being done in coordination with U.S. Space Command along with other satellite operators and regulators, Nicolls said.

“As solar minimum approaches, atmospheric density decreases which means the ballistic decay time at any given altitude increases – lowering will mean a [greater than] 80 percent reduction in ballistic decay time in solar minimum, or four plus years reduced to a few months,” Nicolls wrote. “Correspondingly, the number of debris objects and planned satellite constellations is significantly lower below 500 km, reducing the aggregate likelihood of collision.”

Earlier in the month, Nicolls expressed concern with a 200-meter close approach to another satellite, Starlink-6079 (56120), at 560 km in altitude, blaming a lack of coordination or deconfliction with a launch from China days prior.

Chinese company CAS Space, the company who likely launched the satellites that created the close approach, said it was in contact with SpaceX for more details. It called for “re-establishing collaborations” between the U.S. and China.

The company also said in its annual progress report that it was planning to introduce the next generation Starlink Version 3 satellites in 2026, launching them aboard SpaceX’s Starship-Super Heavy.

“Each one of these new satellites is designed to provide over terabit per second of downlink capacity (more than 1,000 Gbps) and over 200 Gbps of uplink capacity to customers on the ground,” SpaceX wrote in its 2025 progress report. “This is more than 10 times the downlink and 24 times the uplink capacity of the second-generation satellites.”

During a conference talk in Ohio last year, Bill Gerstenmaier, the senior principal flight reliability engineer at SpaceX, said that following the first launch of a Starship V3 rocket, if successful, they may try an orbital launch on the next flight.

Last year it twice demonstrated the deployment of simulated satellites during suborbital test flights of the rocket.

Saturday 3 January 1662/63

Up and to the office all the morning, and dined alone with my wife at noon, and then to my office all the afternoon till night, putting business in order with great content in my mind. Having nothing now in my mind of trouble in the world, but quite the contrary, much joy, except only the ending of our difference with my uncle Thomas, and the getting of the bills well over for my building of my house here, which however are as small and less than any of the others. Sir W. Pen it seems is fallen very ill again.

So to my arithmetique again to-night, and so home to supper and to bed.

Read the annotations

Links 1/3/26

Links for you. Science:

FDA Commissioner: HIV “May Very Well Have Come From a Lab”: During a recent podcast appearance, Dr. Marty Makary promoted lab origin conspiracy theories involving HIV, Lyme disease, and one dead raccoon.
We Are Living Through The Worst Measles Outbreak In 30 Years — But RFK Jr. Won’t Tell You That
Drones detect deadly virus in Arctic whales’ breath
Large language model produces high accurate diagnosis of cancer from end-motif profiles of cell-free DNA
A New H3N2 Influenza Strain Is Raising Concerns About This Flu Season
A flesh-eating fly once eradicated is moving back toward the U.S. (doesn’t mention the role DOGE and Elon Musk played in ending the foreign funding used to stop this)
What Is the ‘Super Flu’ That Is Spreading in the United States and Europe?

Other:

I’m an “A.i.” abolitionist
State Dept. nominee espoused antisemitic views, downplayed the Holocaust
New Justice Department Voting Rights Chief Had Prior Job Suspension for Ties to Election Deniers
Bulgarian Chicago business owner dies in ICE custody, sparking calls for ‘immediate investigation’ (appears to be a type II diabetic who was denied medication)
America’s new top health diplomat has strong opinions on abortion and gender
Two Nights Playing With Fire At Patrick Mahomes And Travis Kelce’s Steakhouse
Man accused of towing ICE SUV during LA immigration operation found not guilty
Epstein Files Include 1996 Child Porn Complaint That F.B.I. Ignored. Newly released files show how Maria Farmer, who worked for Mr. Epstein in the 1990s, had urged the F.B.I. to investigate him. The case went nowhere for years.
The Most ████ Administration Ever. The Epstein files are here, and they are too redacted to satisfy anyone.
Why New York City keeps building luxury high-rises
Social Murder
The NYC subway is drowning. Here’s how to save it.
Mamdani Appointee Resigns After Decade-Old Antisemitic Posts Re-emerge
Inside the 17-year lawsuit between a Trump official and his interior designers
No, Susie Wiles isn’t wily. Like Trump, she’s just broken (very good piece and interview)
U.S. anniversary coins won’t feature any Black Americans or notable women
Menorah Amulet From Byzantine Period Found in Jerusalem. The crudely fashioned, possibly homemade pendant was unearthed by the Temple Mount in a Byzantine building from 1,300 years ago, a time Jews were banned from the city
Redactions
Abominations of Capital: Forcing a price on priceless things.
Israeli Brain Drain Worsens as About a Quarter of Math Ph.D.s Live Abroad
Storied Law Firm Pays Brutal Price for Surrendering to Trump
The Hasmoneans: The Jewish Dynasty That Gave Us Hanukkah Is a Symbol of Murder, Not Heroism and Hope
Meet Randy Fine, America’s Most Racist Congressman. The Florida lawmaker says ‘destroy’ mainstream Muslims. Who is he and where did he come from?
A Damning Photo Of Trump Has Disappeared From The Latest Epstein Files
Boston’s Chinatown is changing. Residents fear they are being priced out.
Vance in His Pants. Everyone knows that J.D. Vance is desperately positioning himself to become Trump’s heir apparent, and our exclusive data suggests that he has the field almost to himself. But his popularity depends on his closeness to Trump, who could change his mind at any minute, for any reason.
Racial harassment against Black students ignored under Trump
Liberalism can save Christmas from Trump
Will Doug Jones pull off another Alabama miracle in 2026?
Why Trump’s Viciousness Matters

"Fair and free elections"

Issa, singing George Michael as usual …

According to Darrell Issa, nearby congressman/everyone’s favorite human popsicle stick, the attack on Venezuela is about one thing: Freedom!

Yes, freedom.

“We really have the opportunity to give the Venezuelan people an opportunity to have that free and fair election,” Issa said moments ago, “without some strongman taking control. And that’s what the president is clearly looking to do.”

And with that, I’ll post this video …

January 2, 2026

January 2, 2026

Just after midnight on January 1, in a private ceremony in the long-closed former City Hall subway station in Manhattan, New York Attorney General Letitia James swore Zohran Mamdani into office as mayor of New York on a historic Quran. Hours later, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) swore Mamdani in publicly in a ceremony on the steps of City Hall.

“My fellow New Yorkers—today begins a new era,” Mamdani said.

The new mayor emphasized that he represents the everyday people of New York City, “construction workers in steel-toed boots and halal cart vendors whose knees ache from working all day” and “neighbors who carry a plate of food to the elderly couple down the hall, those in a rush who still lift strangers’ strollers up subway stairs.” “I stand alongside over one million New Yorkers who voted for this day nearly two months ago,” Mamdani said, ”and I stand just as resolutely alongside those who did not…. I promise you this: if you are a New Yorker, I am your Mayor. Regardless of whether we agree, I will protect you, celebrate with you, mourn alongside you, and never, not for a second, hide from you.”

Mamdani identified this era as “an opportunity to transform and reinvent.” “A moment like this comes rarely,” he said, and “[r]arer still is it the people themselves whose hands are the ones upon the levers of change.”

“To those who insist that the era of big government is over,” Mamdani said, “hear me when I say this—no longer will City Hall hesitate to use its power to improve New Yorkers’ lives.

“For too long, we have turned to the private sector for greatness, while accepting mediocrity from those who serve the public. I cannot blame anyone who has come to question the role of government, whose faith in democracy has been eroded by decades of apathy. We will restore that trust by walking a different path—one where government is no longer solely the final recourse for those struggling, one where excellence is no longer the exception.”

Mamdani recalled past city leaders who called for an end to economic and social inequalities and celebrated the “gorgeous mosaic” that is New York City. Men like Bill de Blasio, David Dinkins, and Fiorello La Guardia believed “that New York could belong to more than just a privileged few,” Mamdani said. “It could belong to those who operate our subways and rake our parks, those who feed us biryani and beef patties, picanha and pastrami on rye” if they used the government “to work hardest for those who work hardest.” He promised to “resurrect that legacy.”

He called for everyday Americans to write a new story for New York City, weaving together the many languages, religions, and countries from which they came to become New Yorkers. He promised that city leaders would not try to divide New Yorkers, but rather would work to bring them together. Rather than using “the good grammar of civility…to mask agendas of cruelty,” he said, they would “replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.”

The policies he promised are not simply about lowering costs, he said, but about “the lives we fill with freedom.” For too long, he said, “freedom has belonged only to those who can afford to buy it.” “Here,” he said, “where the language of the New Deal was born, we will return the vast resources of this city to the workers who call it home.”

Mamdani’s speech was a declaration of a new kind of modern politics that focuses on “freedom to” rather than “freedom from.” For decades, the Republican Party has called for dismantling the government, arguing that regulations and taxes were destroying Americans’ freedom from constraints. But for most Americans, government regulation and investments in social welfare like education and infrastructure guarantee freedom to build a life that is not cramped by preventable obstacles, including those imposed by the wealthy and powerful.

The idea of government regulation and a basic social safety net to permit Americans to live their lives to their fullest potential was a key principle of the New Deal launched by Democratic president Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933, and Mamdani was right to note that the New Deal was born in New York City.

It was in New York City that turn-of-the-century reformers like Frances Perkins recognized the desperate need of urban workers for laws that would protect them from workplace injuries, provide a safety net for widows and orphans, and guarantee a living wage. Those reformer worked with the Democratic Tammany Hall machine to push such legislation through the legislature, where it picked up support from Republicans. In the first three years after the 1911 Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire, New York passed 36 bipartisan laws regulating factories. Other states, especially those with their own history of progressive reform, quickly followed suit.

FDR came from this political ferment, but reform quickly became bipartisan in New York City, where Republicans had their own history of progressivism under Republican president Theodore Roosevelt. In 1933, after a political scandal involving Tammany Hall, New Yorkers elected Republican Fiorello La Guardia to be their mayor after he ran a campaign supporting FDR for president. La Guardia helped to rebuild New York City’s economy during the Great Depression.

By recalling La Guardia and the New Deal, Mamdani was rejecting the modern ideology that demonizes government action rather than celebrating it. He appears to be in good company: an Economist/YouGov poll released on December 30 showed that 80% of Americans believe that “political institutions have been captured by the rich and powerful,” 82% believe that “elites are out of touch with the realities of everyday life,” and 74% believe that “leaders who come from ordinary backgrounds better represent people like me.”

One of Mamdani’s first official acts was designed to restore faith in government by attacking corruption. Mamdami revoked every executive order issued by the previous mayor, Eric Adams, after September 26, 2024. It was on that date that Adams was indicted on five federal charges of public corruption, including bribery, wire fraud, illegal campaign contributions, and conspiracy. After Adams spoke highly of President Donald J. Trump and appeared to agree to cooperate with his immigrant sweeps, the Justice Department in February 2025 moved to drop the charges. The evidence of corruption prompted multiple resignations from the Department of Justice.

In contrast to 34-year-old Mamdani’s inauguration in New York City, the Wall Street Journal on the same day published a story about President Donald Trump’s “signs of aging.” Authors Annie Linskey, Josh Dawsey, and Meridith McGraw note that at 79, Trump is “the oldest man to assume the presidency” and, “according to people close to him,” “is showing signs of aging in public and private.” He gets little sleep and has been recorded falling asleep at public events, appears to be having trouble hearing, doesn’t exercise regularly, and eats “a diet heavy on salty and fatty foods, such as hamburgers and french fries.” Trump told the journalists that he does not always follow the advice of his doctors because “I have very good genetics.”

After learning that the Wall Street Journal was writing about his health, Trump called the authors to “express…irritation about the public debate over his health.” The authors made it clear that Trump and his doctor say he is in excellent health, and his aides say he keeps a busy schedule.

The Wall Street Journal article was significant not because it acknowledges weaknesses many journalists have already recorded, but because a leading right-leaning media outlet is suggesting that Trump is not up to the task of the presidency.

This, in turn, suggests less about the president’s condition than about the danger for the Republican Party of having Trump at its head going into the 2026 midterm elections. On December 31, Republican polling firm Cygnal reported that in generic polling, 49% of Independents favored Democrats and only 29% opted for Republicans. The Independent’s Washington bureau chief, Eric Michael Garcia, called the poll “a flare gun for Republicans.”

Over Tuesday, December 30, and Wednesday, December 31, U.S. Southern Command announced it struck another five small boats that it claims were being operated by “narco-terrorists.” It killed another 13 people and possibly left some survivors. These latest strikes bring the total to at least 35 and the number of people killed to at least 115.

This morning, at 2:58, Trump’s social media account posted about the ongoing Iranian protests that have been sparked by the skyrocketing cost of living, writing: “If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

At 6:56 this morning, Trump posted on social media that “The White House Doctors have just reported that I am in ‘PERFECT HEALTH,’ and that I ‘ACED’ (Meaning, was correct on 100% of the questions asked!), for the third straight time, my Cognitive Examination, something which no other President, or previous Vice president, was willing to take. P.S., I strongly believe that anyone running for President, or Vice President, should be mandatorily forced to take a strong, meaningful, and proven Cognitive Examination. Our great country cannot be run by ‘STUPID’ or INCOMPETENT PEOPLE! President DJT.”

Later in the morning, he posted one image of a dead bird near a windmill with the caption “Eagles going down!” and another with birds near windmills saying: “Killing birds by the millions!” MeidasTouch noted that the first image was a 2010 picture of a red kite in Spain and the other was a 2006 image from Taiwan.

Catherine Rampell of The Bulwark asked: “What does it mean when your doctors keep insisting you redo the cognitive exam?”

Notes:

https://apnews.com/article/mamdani-new-york-mayor-666a4b709191a08fe05f759578373fd5

https://apnews.com/article/zohran-mamdani-mayor-new-york-city-swearing-6e958e049e6611a9f487a6de61db2950

https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/live-updates/zohran-mamdani-inauguration-day-nyc-mayor/

https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/nyc-mayor-zohran-mamdani-inauguration-speech/

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/as-signs-of-aging-emerge-trump-responds-with-defiance-769c5dcd

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonifitzgerald/2025/09/09/how-will-murdoch-succession-impact-fox-news-wall-street-journal-and-more/

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/25/us/new-york-city-mayor-eric-adams-indicted

https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/02/10/trump-justice-eric-adams-corruption-drop/

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/february-14-2025

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/1/several-killed-as-iran-protests-over-rising-cost-of-living-spread

https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53800-distrust-elites-experts-establishment-widespread-among-americans-december-26-29-2025-economist-yougov-poll

https://abc7.com/post/us-military-strikes-5-more-alleged-drug-boats-killing-8-possibly-leaving-survivors-amid-venezuela-pressure-campaign/18338914/

https://www.justsecurity.org/120753/collection-u-s-lethal-strikes-on-suspected-drug-traffickers/

Matthew and Hannah Josephson [Frances Perkins], Al Smith: Hero of the Cities (London: 1969), pp. 135–140.

Bluesky:

crampell.bsky.social/post/3mbh5t6wcwk2g

meidastouch.com/post/3mbhfbstrkc2t

robertscotthorton.bsky.social/post/3mbfi6qe2dk2i

ericmgarcia.bsky.social/post/3mbhxxig4hk2j

spencergreen.bsky.social/post/3mbgscje5x226

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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices up 1.4% YoY

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Piles of Questions On Maduro Capture In Venezuela

A surprise U.S. military strike to arrest Nicolás Maduro has ignited constitutional, geopolitical, and humanitarian concerns — with no clear endgame.

However prepared we should have been for a “large” U.S. military strike inside Venezuela, the overnight news of a widespread attack to cover the arrest and removal of Nicolás Maduro and his wife was stunning.

For all of Donald Trump’s bluster, perhaps equally stunning is the mountain-high pile of questions unearthed by the un-declared war incursion into another country in the name of a “drug enforcement” arrest.

What exactly have we accomplished besides arranging to put the Maduros on trial? What chaos have we now unleashed in a well-executed military strike that has no apparent plan for what happens next?

“We are going to run the country” with selected, unidentified Venezuelan officials until satisfactory leadership can take over, said Trump of the strikes, paid for by a renewed oil industry. Without explanation of how that will work – other than U.S. corporate takeover of oil fields. Trump said a much larger “wave” of attacks was considered. Trump suggested U.S. troops will be kept available in Venezuela or nearby for an undesignated period of time, though he was unclear.

Trump’s press conference explanation of the raid was so wandering that it was difficult to find the specific trigger for the raids. It clearly wasn’t drug smuggling allegations alone, or even “theft” of oil property, or anything about safety of Venezuelans. It was not clear what offenses were against the United States specifically. Trump claimed historical “Monroe Doctrine” needs for American dominance of the hemisphere, the righteousness of deportations and deployment of federal troops against Venezuelan gang members.

Have we once again entered conflict without a definable end goal? Will U.S. troops be committed to peacekeeping made necessary by decapitating the country’s leadership?

Do we really think we have stopped drug traffic to the U.S., or reclaimed U.S. oil interests, or somehow “liberated” Venezuelans from a government we dislike – and not triggered an outflow of Venezuelans to other countries, including our own? Are we really supposed to believe that a police action now comes with a naval armada headed by an aircraft carrier and 15,000 troops offshore? There even are questions about new drug trafficking claims against both Maduros since a 2020 conspiracy indictment listed Maduro but not his wife, though the conspiracy was a group that apparently does not exist.

Is this an end to some Venezuela chapter – or the unleashing of much wider aggression not only by this country, but by others who will see justification in the capture of Maduro as authorization to undertake incursions of their own?

Serious Questions

As an operation, the strike involved bombing multiple military bases and a stealth Delta Force assault on a fortified Maduro home. The city was darkened, there was meticulous coordination with intelligence agencies, the weather cooperated. A helicopter took fire, but there were no fatalities.

There are serious questions about Trump’s own abuse of presidential war powers and the role of a Congress that seems to be flailing to assert itself as anything close to an effective branch of our own government. There are serious questions about a president who ignores polls showing 70 percent or more of voters opposed to more wars starting a new one with reasoning no one can offer persuasively.

Trump simply dismissed criticisms about any needed authority for the strikes. “They should say great job,” he told Fox News. “They shouldn’t say ‘Oh, gee, maybe it’s not constitutional.’” That hardly answers questions that the claim to ”inherent powers” for the president solely to dispatch U.S. military, indeed is constitutional. However loathsome a character as Maduro, whose legitimacy the U.S. disputes, what exactly has Maduro done that merits invasion and capture?

There are serious questions from an attempted takeover of Venezuela, a sovereign nation, by a piqued Trump. Why not China, where fentanyl is said to originate, or Mexico, where it is processed? Why not Colombia, which has been dealing with cartels for decades?

If we care so much about foreign leaders who promote drug sales, why did this very same Trump pardon the former Honduras president who was not only arrested, but convicted and imprisoned in the U.S. for smuggling 400 tons of cocaine into this country?

Peacemaker Trump?

Why was Trump only casually mentioning to Fox News that U.S helicopter was hit? Doing so seems only to underscore that Trump sees the military as a plaything for him to use at will to satisfy some gut instinct rather than to carry out strategic planning.

Why the constant show of force, particularly from a Trump who jealously wants a Nobel Peace Prize and brags about settling various conflicts – that remain contentious? Who is granting Trump the right to run this hemisphere as a personal sandbox?

Indeed, just this week, Trump threatened  Iran over any crackdown on public protests even as Trump seeks to put the U.S. military on our own city streets to stop our own protests about his presidency.

What makes this incursion different from Russia seeking the overthrow of Ukraine?

In place of a congressional declaration of war with an explanation of goals, we have a Trump Social Media post in the middle of the night.  We see after the fact efforts from Secretary of State Mario Rubio — who had said we were not pursuing regime change and now insists that military conflict is over after this set of bombing — with Republican senators and international leaders to calm fears of a wider conflict.  Rubio insisted it was largely a law enforcement issue and a “trigger” situation that precluded congressional notification.

A number of Republican lawmakers who represent districts in Southern Florida with large Venezuelan Americans were celebrating.

Russian and Iranian leaders immediately sided with Venezuela, Columbia put its army on alert for new migrations and called for immediate UN Security Council review, international figures were at least wary if not angered by the actions. Only Argentina’s leader, a Trump ally, was vocal in support. Diplomatic experts were concerned that the move would further embolden China to like acts in Taiwan.

The ripples are not just local to the suddenly uncertain streets of Caracas.

Apart from all else, declaring this act of war an execution of a years-old arrest warrant flies in the face of others, including Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who face outstanding charges. Those, of course, also had included Trump’s own allegations of law-breaking until his Justice Department forced their dismissal.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

The post Piles of Questions On Maduro Capture In Venezuela appeared first on DCReport.org.

NetNewsWire, Kagi, maybe Orion?

A few notes on some apps and services I’m switching for the New Year.


§ For years I’ve been using the Reeder app on iPadOS for the bulk of my RSS feed reading. But a while back it launched a new version that works in a way that doesn’t suit my reading and, while the “classic” one is continuing, it feels a little like it won’t last forever.

So I’ve given NetNewsWire another try. Every so often I have a look and it’s never felt quite right. But this time I think it’s stuck. It looks less elegant than Reeder, and lacks a couple of layout / interaction things that made Reeder nicer to use. But it’s definitely good enough.

With my feed reading (and email newsletter reading) all based at Feedbin it’s really easy to switch from one reading app to another. So good.


§ I’ve also decided to start paying Kagi search US$6/month. I liked the brief free trial I tried a while back but, while every single Google search I’ve done since has been annoying in several ways, each individual search wasn’t annoying enough to make me think “I’ll pay $6 to make these particular results better”.

But I figured I should actually try it properly and see how it goes. It’s already refreshing to only see, you know, search results.


§ Alongside that I’ve wondered about switching from Safari on macOS/iOS/iPadOS to Orion, from the Kagi folks. It’s the first alternative I’ve considered and it seems good. I like Firefox but they seem determined to gradually throw all good will away by making it worse. Crucially, Orion will sync my activity between all three devices, and can import bookmarks, history, etc from Safari.

I would definitely have switched if upgrading to macOS Tahoe hadn’t fixed an unbearable slowness in Safari that began a few months ago – typing anything in the URL/search bar resulted in a spinning beachball for ages. Restarting Safari fixed it for a brief while.

But Tahoe has made Safari work again, so my gains from switching to Orion seem minimal. Nice that it can use both Chrome and Firefox plugins though…

All that’s holding me back is thinking that if I decide to go back to Safari after a few weeks of trying Orion, I guess I’ll lose those weeks’ worth of history. And my memory needs all the help it can get.

If you’re using it, let me know what you think.


Read comments or post one

Saturday assorted links

1. How to improve nursing homes in America.

2. Reflections on podcasting.

3. On Nietzsche (Zarathustra always bored me).

4. Museum openings for 2026.

5. LLMs describing the best very long-term investment you could have made in 1300 A.D.  Excellent answers, I like the GPT one best.

6. Mexico’s growth stagnation.

7. Francesca Gino revisionism.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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People Have Opinions at the Hallowed Grounds of the Beating of Big Balls

Observed at the corner of 14th and Swann Streets, NW, U Street Corridor, D.C.:

Untitled

Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026

The key reports this week are the December employment report and Housing Starts for September and October.

Other key indicators include the November Trade Deficit, November Job Openings, December ISM Manufacturing and December Vehicle Sales.

----- Monday, January 5th -----

Vehicle SalesEarly: Light vehicle sales for December.

The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. 

The dashed line is the current sales rate.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for 48.3%, up from 48.2%.

----- Tuesday, January 6th -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Wednesday, January 7th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 50,000, up from -32,000 jobs added in November.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.67 million from 7.66 million in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for December.

----- Thursday, January 8th -----

U.S. Trade Deficit 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 205K, up from 199K.

----- Friday, January 9th -----

Employment per month8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%.

There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September and October.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 2000.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January)

12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

Why Some US Indian Reservations Prosper While Others Struggle

Our colleague Thomas Stratmann writes about the political economy of Indian reservations in his excellent Substack Rules and Results.

Across 123 tribal nations in the lower 48 states, median household income for Native American residents ranges from roughly $20,000 to over $130,000—a sixfold difference. Some reservations have household incomes comparable to middle-class America. Others face persistent poverty.

Why?

The common assumption: casino revenue. The data show otherwise. Gaming, natural resources, and location explain some variation. But they don’t explain most of it. What does? Institutional quality.

The Reservation Economic Freedom Index 2.0 measures how property rights, regulatory clarity, governance, and economic freedom vary across tribal nations. The correlation with prosperity is clear, consistent, and statistically significant. A 1-point improvement in REFI—on a 0-to-13 scale—correlates with approximately $1,800 higher median household income. A 10-point improvement? Nearly $18,000 more per household.

Scatter plot showing positive correlation between Reservation Economic Freedom Index scores (0-13 scale) and median Native American household income. Each blue dot represents one reservation. Red trend line shows approximately $1,783 higher income per REFI point. Chart shows 120 reservations after excluding 3 outliers. Income ranges from $20,000 to $100,000.

Many low-REFI features aren’t tribal choices—they’re federal impositions. Trust status prevents land from being used as collateral. Overlapping federal-state-tribal jurisdiction creates regulatory uncertainty. BIA approval requirements add months or years to routine transactions. Complex jurisdictional frameworks can deter investment when the rules governing business activity, dispute resolution, and enforcement remain unclear.

This is an important research program. In addition to potentially improving the lives of native Americans, the 123 tribal nations are a new and interesting dataset to study institutions.

See the post for more details amd discussion of causality. A longer paper is here.

The post Why Some US Indian Reservations Prosper While Others Struggle appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The Venezuela conflict

Comments are open, in case you have intelligent insight or useful facts to add…

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★ Clicks Communicator and Clicks Power Keyboard

Two years ago, I linked to the then-new Clicks keyboard case — an iPhone case with a built-in BlackBerry-style hardware keyboard jutting out from the bottom. I wrote then:

I don’t know how much I’ll wind up using it but it looks fun, useful, and clever — and I’m just a sucker for upstart indie hardware projects. Clicks is even a great name.

I wound up not using it much at all. I never owned a smartphone with a hardware keyboard (I went straight from this Nokia dumbphone right to an iPhone), so I have neither muscle memory nor nostalgia for hardware phone keyboards. I wound up typing slower — much slower — with my Clicks keyboard case than I did using the on-screen keyboard. Plus the way the keyboard juts out from the bottom makes your phone, when encased, something more akin size-wise to a TV remote control. I’m glad I bought it, was happy to try it, but it just wasn’t for me.

The Clicks team — including co-founders Michael “MrMobile” Fisher and Kevin “CrackBerry” Michaluk — is out today with two major new products. The best place to start is this nicely-done 12-minute keynote introducing both products.

The first is an entire BlackBerry-style phone: Clicks Communicator. It runs Android but ships with a custom launcher that emphasizes messaging and notifications, has a hardware mute switch, and a side button with a color-coded alert light they call the Signal LED. It’s set to ship “later this year” and will cost $500, but you can pre-order one today for just $400. It looks cool. They’re pitching Communicator as a second phone — less distracting, focused on messaging — but one that could be your primary phone if you want it to be. CrackBerry Kevin has a whole write-up about it. I have zero need for one but I kind of want one.

The second is the Clicks Power Keyboard. It’s a MagSafe-compatible battery back with a keyboard that slides out, underneath your phone. (Reminiscent of the Palm Pre?) It’s a Bluetooth keyboard, and you can pair it with up to three devices. Examples they cite include pairing with an iPad, Apple TV, and, intriguingly, a Vision Pro. (I’d rather type with my thumbs on a device like this than peck at the virtual keyboard in VisionOS, I think.) This strikes me as a much better idea for a hardware phone keyboard accessory than a case. Cases need to be made per each device. A Clicks keyboard case for an iPhone 15 won’t fit an iPhone 16. Hell, a case for an iPhone 15 won’t even fit an iPhone 15 Pro. And here we are in January and Clicks still doesn’t have cases for the iPhones 17 or iPhone Air. [Update: My bad, they do have cases for the 17 models.] But MagSafe and Bluetooth mean the same Clicks Power Keyboard will work with any modern iPhone — or Android phone. It’s shipping “in the spring” and will cost $110, but can be pre-ordered for a limited time for $80. It comes in one color, black (the correct color if you’re only going to offer one). I’m going to buy one of these for sure, even though I’m quite certain my thumbs haven’t gained any muscle memory for such keyboards since I abandoned my Clicks keyboard case. Fisher has a whole video about the Clicks Power Keyboard on his YouTube channel.

I just love the chutzpah of these guys. They started with a good minimal launch product and are back two years later with what looks like a much better idea for a phone keyboard accessory. But they’re also now making their own whole goddamn phone. That’s going big, not going home.

Should more professional societies condemn some of their members?

 Robert Reich posed the question on his substack:

Ethics Shmethics
Why are America’s most powerful professional associations silent in the face of professional disgraces in the Trump regime?

Robert Reich 

"Hell, if the American Economic Association can permanently ban Harvard economist (and former treasury secretary) Larry Summers for conduct “fundamentally inconsistent with its standards of professional integrity” (Summers had repeatedly asked Jeffrey Epstein for advice on Summers’s pursuit of a younger economist), surely the American Bar Association should ban Lindsey Halligan, and the American Medical Association, Vinay Prasad.

"Where are the American Bar Association and the American Medical Association during Trump’s unscrupulous reign?

Eartheye Space reveals contract with Asia-Pacific customer

SAN FRANCISCO – Eartheye Space will pool data from hundreds of Earth-observation satellites to provide imagery and data to a customer in the Asia-Pacific region. “All Earth observation sensors, including both imaging and non-imaging sensors, are provided under the contract,” which promises multi-sensor tasking, according to the Eartheye Space news release. The contract covers imagery […]

The post Eartheye Space reveals contract with Asia-Pacific customer appeared first on SpaceNews.

Luis Garicano career advice

Take the messy job:

The other option is to go for a messy job, where the output is the product of many different tasks, many of which affect each other.

The head of engineering at a manufacturing plant I know well must decide who to hire, which machines to buy, how to lay them down in the plant, negotiate with the workers and the higher ups the solutions proposed, and mobilise the resources to implement them. That task is extraordinarily hard to automate. Artificial intelligence commoditizes codified knowledge: textbooks, proofs, syntax. But it does not interface in a meaningful way with local knowledge, where a much larger share of the value of messy jobs is created. Even if artificial intelligence excelled at most of the single tasks that make up her job, it could not walk the factory floor to cajole a manager to redesign a production process.

A management consultant whose job consists entirely of producing slide decks is exposed. A consultant who spends half of her time reading the room, building client relationships, and navigating organizational politics has a bundle AI cannot replicate.

Here is the full letter.

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Direct and Indirect Effects of Vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19

Sorry people, but the verdict on this one continues to come in:

We estimate direct and indirect vaccine effectiveness and assess how far the infection-reducing externality extends from the vaccinated, a key input to policy decisions. Our empirical strategy uses nearly universal microdata from a single state and relies on the six-month delay between 12- and 11-year-old COVID vaccine eligibility. Vaccination reduces cases by 80 percent, the direct effect. This protection spills over to close contacts, producing a household-level indirect effect about three-fourths as large as the direct effect. However, indirect effects do not extend to schoolmates. Our results highlight vaccine reach as important to consider when designing policy for infectious disease.

That is from American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, by Seth Freedman, Daniel W. Sacks, Kosali Simon, and Coady Wing.  So many different methods and papers are pointing in the same direction…

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New Acquisitions: Tolkien and Éowyn Between Two Wars (PPP Moot Keynote)

Hey folks! I am working on finishing up some things this week, so I thought I would post the text of the keynote I gave at the Prancing Pony Podcast Moot earlier this December. I’ve made some minor edits to conform a bit more to the form of a blog post, but this remains very much a speaking script, with some of the different expectations (somewhat less detail, more signposting, and a bit more rhetorical flourish, however poorly done) still there. So without further ado, “Tolkien and Éowyn Between Two Wars:”

I had warned the Moot attendees that “if you start asking me history questions, I will just start answering them.” And indeed, in the evening after the keynote, in the hallway between the meeting rooms, some of them did exactly that and the result was a running history Q&A that ran for just over five hours, picking up a substantial crowd as it went.
One of the folks there, Yiffan, was kind enough to sketch the impromptu history lecture and sent me the sketch, which you see above.

Tolkien and Éowyn Between Two Wars

I wanted to talk today about the historical grounding of J.R.R. Tolkien’s work and especially his legendarium, following on the theme of the moot, ‘Creating Historical Depth within Fantastical Worlds.’  In particular, I want to speak on the grounding of Tolkien’s perception of war, anchored in both his deep erudition and his own experiences.  In part, that means discussing why the martial aspects of Middle Earth – the size and structure of armies, their commanders, the way they move and fight, the outcomes of their battles – feel so much more grounded and real than many other works in this genre.  They feel more grounded, as we will see, because they are more grounded.

But even more I want to talk about how the vision of war in Tolkien’s world is defined by his two great sources – one great and wonderful and one great and terrible – of historical grounding.  In a way it is trapped between them, caught between two incompatible visions of both war and the warrior, a collision of ‘wars’ – or, if I may be academically pedantic for a moment, a collision of culturally embedded visions (mentalités, to be even more obscure) of warfare – that Tolkien struggles to resolve in his writings.  This talk is about how Éowyn finds herself trapped between the two ‘Wars’ Tolkien knew: the wars in his books and the war of his own experience, and how Tolkien navigates Éowyn through this collision to find peace at the other side.  The Lord of the Rings being a work of fiction, that collision is resolved not in dry academic broadsides – of the sort you have, inexplicably, agreed to endure for the next forty minutes (I thank you for your questionable decision-making in this regard) – but rather through its characters.

And of course, in the Lord of the Rings as in all great art, it is in the struggle to resolve the unresolvable that profundity of the human experience emerges, in all of its beauty and flaws.

Thus, our discussion proper begins where its wars end: with Éowyn in the Houses of Healing.

Two Wars in the Houses of Healing

I imagine we all know the moment. Éowyn recovering from wounds sustained on the Pelennor Fields, both physical and psychological, has had her heart softened by Faramir and her spirits lifted by the departure of the shadow proclaims (RotK, 271):

I stand in Minas Anor, the Tower of the Sun, she said, ‘and behold! the Shadow has departed!  I will be a shieldmaiden no longer, no vie with the great Riders, nor take joy only in the songs of slaying. I will be a healer, and love all things that grow and are not barren.’ And again, she looked at Faramir. No longer, do I desire to be a queen,’ she said.

And let me offer a brief shout-out to Faramir’s gamely and adroit reply of, “That is well, for I am not a king.”  The fellow is putting in the effort.

This character turn is, of course, one of the most controversial in the whole of the legendarium, long criticized on the grounds that it undermines Éowyn’s character to give her traditional feminine domesticity as a reward for her valor. To many readers, Éowyn in this moment feels like a character trapped between the modern and the pre-modern: a modern heroine who can fight her own battles with the best of them, who is yet forced to accept the pre-modern consolation prize of marriage and domesticity.  I confess I have never been persuaded of this view; we should note of course that standing next to her in this moment is Faramir, the finest Captain of Gondor who is yet prepared – eager, even – to take the same reward as Éowyn, to go to govern Ithilien and help it bloom once more.  That charge is not so different either from Samwise, Merry and Pippin, who all return home to become civic leaders in their communities at peace.  Tolkien is not offering Éowyn a ‘woman’s reward’ but rather his version of a heroes reward.

I do think modern readers are somewhat in danger of missing the radicalism of Éowyn’s character, a case – one of many – of Tolkien being so influential that he has created a new norm against which he is judged.  Éowyn’s character, of course, draws on traditions of mythical and legendary women warriors that predate him: the Amazons of Greek mythology – figures like Atalanta or Penthesilea – or Camilla (the Aeneid’s Latin stand-in for Penthesilea). Or, of course, the shield-maidens of the Norse literature that Tolkien loved so: Lagertha, Veborg, Hervor and so on.  The set up for Éowyn is familiar.

It is instead in the payoff, in this moment that Tolkien defies his source material in a way that creates a new paradigm.  Because as students of pre-modern literature will know, in the broad western tradition, women warriors exist in literature largely to be defeated.  Atalanta exists in her story to be defeated in a footrace by Hippomenes and consequently forced into a marriage she had tried to resist (which leads into her ending up transformed into a lion when Hippomenes offends the gods).  Penthesilea and Camilla’s role in their stories are as fearsome opponents to be killed and defeated by male heroes, a violent restatement of patriarchal dominance.  The Amazons more generally ‘exist to lose’ in Greek and Roman mythology.

Shield maidens fare little better.  Verborg appears in the Gesta Danorum, showing valor but being slain in battle.  The younger Hervor, likewise, falls in battle, while Lagertha, the exception, in the Gesta Danorum slays her husband and then promptly vanishes from the story.  In short, these figures, while praised for their value, generally ‘exist’ in the story to be defeated.  In a real sense, these characters are often punished for violating the gender roles of their societies.

By contrast, Tolkien rewards Éowyn.  Faramir openly praises her in directly heroic terms, “For you are a lady high and valiant and have yourself won renown that shall not be forgotten.”  As we’ll discuss in a moment, unforgettable renown is not a small reward! Éowyn has accomplished this and unlike the heroines upon whom she is based, can then leave with her life, to enjoy the peace she has won under the same terms as Samwise or Merry or Pippin or, indeed, Faramir.  In this sense, Éowyn feels far more modern than her critics give credit.

Yet I think there is something to the idea that Éowyn, in the Houses of Healing stands trapped between the modern and the pre-modern, just not in her gender, but rather in her relationship to war and death, the relationships that have dominated her thinking since we first met her in the pages of The Two Towers.  She is hardly the only character so trapped and indeed we might understand the theme of the final third of The Return of the King – as one of the great works of Great War literature (I will argue until the end of time that it should stand next to books like All Quiet on the Western Front in this regard) – to be, “how can one leave war behind?”  Samwise can, but Frodo finds he cannot. Faramir longs to do so and finally does.  Many characters – Boromir, Théoden, Denethor – know the end of war only in death.  Éowyn is, in the Houses of Healing, trapped between a pre-modern relationship to war, which offers her only death in battle, and a modern relationship to war, which offers escape.

To understand how Éowyn navigates the collision of these systems, we need to understand how Tolkien himself imagined and experienced war, to understand the two great reservoirs from which his understanding came.  And at last we come to our main topic, for Tolkien has two visions of war that emerge through Middle Earth, both rooted in history.

Those who know my writing will be, of course, in no way shocked that we are 1,250 words in and only now reaching the end of the introduction. Now on to Part IIb.

The Historicity of Middle Earth

When I started actually writing about Tolkien’s legendarium, I was surprised by how strongly grounded it was, historically.  I had grown up on these books, having them read to me before I even could read them myself, and I had returned to them regularly, but I hadn’t sat down to work through them the way a historian would until 2019 when I started blogging on them.  But I came back to them in the context of writing critiques of other fantasy worlds which claimed more ‘realism’ and yet often betrayed a far weaker understanding of societies in the past.

I expected to find similar cracks in the foundations of Middle Earth, but there are few.  Tolkien’s armies move at roughly the correct speeds and his detailed accounting of dates in the appendices leave him no room to ‘cheat.’  Likewise, the political systems of Tolkien’s human societies are immediately intelligible as somewhat fragmented Late Antique or Early Medieval polities, with leaders, values customs, armies and social institutions to match their structure.

InstanceTypeDistanceBook Speed‘Rule of Thumb’ Speed
Théoden to Helm’s DeepCavalry
Forced March
c. 80 miles50 miles per day~40 miles per day
Morgul Army to Minas TirithInfantry with Supplies20 leagues
(c. 60 miles)
12 miles per day~10 miles per day
Théoden to Minas TirithCavalryc. 180 miles36 miles per day~40 miles per day
Grey Company to PelargirHeroic Cavalry
Forced March
c. 300 miles60 miles per day~40 miles per day

No small part of this, of course, comes from Tolkien’s own meticulous plotting, including day-by-day accounting of where characters are (which of course shows up in the appendices).  But he has not worked out all of those details – there is little sense that Tolkien had worked out, for instance, a complete flow-chart of Rohan or Gondor’s administration, yet what we see makes sense with history.  The strong historical grounding of Tolkien’s legendarium comes from Tolkien’s own deep marination in the literature of societies like the ones he describes and his own experience of war.  We begin with the former.

The War in Tolkien’s Books

I imagine for at least some of you, the details of Tolkien’s education are already familiar, but let me go over the basics and then provide a bit of context for them.  I should note that in this next part, I am quite indebted to the work of John Garth, Tolkien and the Great War (2005); I imagine in a gathering such as this, little recommendation of it is required.  I offer it all the same.

Even as a schoolboy, Tolkien was enamored with literature and languages.  He himself writes, “I was brought up in the Classics” – by which he means ancient Greek and Latin literature – “and first discovered the sensation of literary pleasure in Homer.”  Education in turn-of-the-last-century Britain remained heavily based on the Classics and a solid working knowledge of Greek and Latin (and of Greek and Roman history) was assumed for any man who wanted to present as an educated man.  Modern European languages – Tolkien excelled in German, winning first prize in the subject at his school in 1910 – were also a standard part of education.

Tolkien ‘discovers’ the early Germanic languages via Joseph Wright’s Primer of the Gothic Language in 1908 (Tolkien is 16 at the time) and so his love affair with Germanic, rather than Roman languages was begun, to the last the rest of his life.  In 1911, Tolkien began his studies at Oxford, but initially enrolled reading (that is ‘majoring in’ in American parlance) Classics.  He only shifted to English literature – Old English – in 1913.  Tolkien is thus deeply familiar with the Greek and Roman Classics before he moves on to develop his prodigious knowledge of Old and Middle English literature.

Of course, the war intervened – we will return to that in a moment – but in his academic career, Tolkien produced a number of major works on English literature (in addition to producing the defining works of English literature we are discussing here).  While Tolkien’s work on Beowulf, most famously “Beowulf: The Monsters and the Critics” (1936) is perhaps best known – Tolkien essentially revolutionized the study of English’ oldest epic poem – he also worked on later medieval romances, translating Sir Gawain and the Green Knight and the 14th century Middle English poem Pearl.  Although Tolkien did not work on similar continental literary traditions, the French tales of knightly deeds (chasons de geste) or the songs of the Occitan troubadours, he can hardly have been ignorant of them and one detects allusions to them at certain points in the Lord of the Rings.  When Théoden, for instance, about to ride to his glorious end, “seized a great horn from Guthlaf his banner-bearer and he blew such a blast upon it that it burst asunder” it is hard not to hear an echo of Roland from the 11th century chanson de geste the Song of Roland, who finding himself in a battle that will claim his life blows upon his own horn so hard his temples burst.  Roland’s horn, evidently made from elephant tusk, is termed the Olifant in the poem, a name which also ought to jog some memories from Middle Earth too.

As a historian, I also feel I would be remiss if I did not note the scholarly climate of historical study that Tolkien was entering into: Tolkien’s early scholarly years are happening at the same time that historians were assembling the first modern, systematic efforts to map out political and social organization in pre-modern societies.  Theodore Mommsen’s Römische Geschichte (Roman History) was published in from 1871 to 1908 and won a Nobel Prize in 1902; his systematic effort to understand the Roman system of governance, Römisches Staatsrecht had been published in 1888.  As always, scholarship on the Middle Ages was a touch later, but Marc Bloch’s La Societe foedale, (Feudal Society), a foundation-stone work in understanding medieval society, was published in 1940 (Bloch, a member of the French resistance, was murdered by the Nazis in 1944).  I cannot say for certain if Tolkien engaged with these works directly, but given his place at Oxford he could hardly have avoided them entirely, even if he wished (and even if one imagines he might have rebelled against the relentlessly materialist focus of the historical work of his day).

And as a scholar of military equipment in particular, I have to note that Tolkien, drawing carefully on the language of these medieval works, is remarkably adept at recreating in words a relentlessly Early Medieval military material culture: maul hauberks, partially enclosed helmets, broad shields that splinter and long spears from horseback.  The internet has, since then, placed the wealth of human knowledge about arms and armor at the fingertips of every writer and yet few if any modern writers are so precise.

Detail from the Bayeaux Tapestry (c. 1070), showing the sort of medieval equipment Tolkien envisages in Middle Earth.

Tolkien thus spend his life marinating in the literature produced by pre-modern societies: Greek, Roman, Old English and Middle English in particular.  And it is clear to me that in the process he developed an intuitive understanding of how these cultures imagined their worlds, how they thought about society, about politics, about their own values.  It is why his Secondary World feels so real and true; he understands the societies on which it is based at a depth few ever manage.  And how they thought about war.

Pre-Modern Éowyn

And it is here we meet what we might call out ‘First Éowyn,’ the pre-modern Éowyn.

The worldview that comes out of epics like the Iliad or Beowulf should feel immediately familiar to a reader of The Lord of the Rings.  Naturally, across such a chasm of cultures, there will be differences but heroes in these epics are presented as primarily chasing renown, which they accomplish by competing with each other in deeds.  War, of course, is the principal stage upon which this competition takes place, but not the only one.  But this headlong pursuit of renown is almost invariably tied up with death: there are few ‘old heroes’ in these stories and those that do appear – like Nestor in the Iliad – appear as much as pathetic figures as anything else.  No one really listens to the advice of Nestor in the Iliad (only Telemachos listens to him in the Odyssey), an old blowhard who has outlived his renown and thus much of his value in these societies – they listen to Achilles, to Agamemnon, to Odysseus, men in their prime who are still performing great deeds.

This connection of death and renown is explicit in the Iliad, through its central character, Achilles, whose menis, (‘wrath’) is set out as the poems theme.  In Book 9 he reveals that, unusual amongst men – he is, after all, a demigod – he has two mortal fates.  “For my mother, the silver-footed goddess Thetis told me of the two-fold fates bearing me to death.  If on the one hand I remain here, fighting about the city of the Trojans, I will lose my return-home, but my renown [kleos] will be imperishable.  If on the other hand I return to my beloved fatherland, I will lose my great kleos, but long shall my life endure, and the doom of death shall not fall upon me.” (Iliad 9.410-416)  Achilles, the consummate hero, naturally chooses to remain and although the poem ends before his death, every reader or listener would have known that Achilles, by choosing to remain and defeat Hector, the mightiest Trojan, had both achieved that undying renown (we are, after all, still talking about him), but at the same time, had doomed himself to die beneath the walls of Troy.

Likewise, of course, Beowulf.  While Beowulf’s superhuman strength – he has a nasty habit of breaking his own swords, he is so strong – defines many of his fights, the defining aspect of her person is the one the poem ends on, that is he lof-geornost “most desirous of fame” (3182).  Lof – praise, fame, renown – serves much the same role as Greek kleos (or Latin laus or gloria), as the central thing for which heroes compete.  Thus, episodes like Beowulf’s accounting of his exploits upon arriving at Heorot (399-424) before his boast to defeat Grendel and his prickly response when Unferth tries to play down his exploits (499-606).  Renown, reputation for great deeds was all.

But heroism and death are linked in Beowulf as they are in the Iliad.   Deep into his old age, when a dragon strikes his kingdom, Beowulf we are told was “too proud to line up with a large army against the sky-plague” (2345-9).  Instead he takes only a small band and when most of these abandon him in fear, he confronts the dragon alone, declaring, “I risked my life often when I was young.  Now I am old, but as king of the people I shall pursue this fight for the glory of winning, if the evil one will only abandon his earth-fort and face me in the open.” (2510-15).  When Beowulf’s one stalwart companion, Wiglaf rushes to his aid, he encourages Beowulf, “Go on, dear Beowulf, do everything you said you would when you were still young and vowed you would never let your name and fame be dimmed while you lived” (2663-66).  Beowulf, of course does go on, in a fight he knows full well will claim his life, yet render his renown imperishable.  How could a man who is lof-geornost do otherwise?

These characters and their motivations, of course, have their attitudes rooted in their own societies and time.  War was not constant in these societies, but it was regular, an occurrence that cycles in and out like the seasons, a society which wholly lacked it was incomplete, perhaps even dysfunctional.  Participation in war in these societies was, after all, often an essential part of the transition from boyhood to adulthood for young men.  It is easy for us to miss how central this could be for these societies. 

By way of example, we might take Aeschylus.  Aeschylus, if you are not familiar, was an ancient Athenian playwright, a writer of tragedies – the higher, more prestigious form – and was by far the most famous playwright of his generation; arguably of any generation. He was the only playwright whose tragedies continued to be restaged in festivals after his death, the equivalent of the very greatest writer-director of his day.  We have the text of Aeschylus’ funerary epitaph, engraved on his gravestone.  It reads (in translation), “Beneath this stone like Aeschylus, son of Euphorion, the Athenian, who perished in the wheat-bearing lands of Gela; of his noble prowess the grove of Marathon can speak, and the long-haired Persian knows it well.”1

No mention of his plays, his many first-place finishes in theater competition at religious festivals.  But Aeschylus fought at Marathon, the most famous battle of his age and thereby won the renown of which his tombstone boasts, that Marathon can speak of his fighting skill and his Persian foes remember it.

For the men of the ‘military class’ – defined differently in each society – war also never fully left them.  Few heroes of the Trojan War ever come home: both Achilles and Hector die on the battlefield.  So too, of course does Beowulf, mortally wounded by his last triumph, the slain dragon.  And Roland likewise does not survive his famed and doomed last stand at Roncevaux Pass.

That was not merely story convenience.  The citizen-warriors of Greek city-states (called poleis) continued to serve when the polis went to war deep into old age.  Socrates, born c. 470, fought at Potidaea in his 30s, at Delium in his 40s and at Amphipolis, likely nearing 50.  Military age for an ancient Greek polis ended only around 60.  Likewise, knights did not ‘retire.’  Their status as warriors was an essential part of them that continued deep into old age and could only be laid down if they took up another equally totalizing vocation, by taking holy orders as a monk. A knight too old to fight was a pathetic figure, not an aspirational one.

We meet this same historically grounded vision of war in early on in Éowyn.  Indeed, as we come to know the character, it dominates her thoughts.  As Éowyn pleads with Aragorn to take her down the Paths of the Dead and Aragorn reminds her that she has – again – been chosen to lead Rohan in the king’s absence and against the possibility that he and Éomer might not return, she responds, “Shall I always be chosen?’ she said bitterly, ‘Shall I always be left behind when the Riders depart, to mind the house while they win renown, and find food and beds when they return?” (RotK 62; emphasis mine).  When asked what she fears, she responds, “A cage…to stay behind bars, until use and old age accept them, and all chance of doing great deeds is gone beyond recall or desire” (RotK, 62; emphasis mine).  Éowyn at this point seeks to take part in that competition for renown; chiefly she fears being forever barred from it.

And that comes inexplicably linked with her own attitude towards death.  When Éowyn declares to Aragorn, “I do not fear either pain or death,” (RotK, 62) it is not an idle boast.  She is, in effect, attempting to make the same choice as Achilles: to choose the short, glorious life over the long life lived without renown.  When Éowyn confronts the Witch King she stands “faithful beyond fear” not because she thinks he can win – she promises merely “do what you will; but I will hinder it, if I may” – but because for someone seeking a glorious death, the Witch King holds no fear (RotK, 127-8).

And even in the Houses of Healing, Éowyn holds to this vision of war.  When Gandalf describes her as “waking…to hope” she responds “At least while there is an empty saddle of some fallen Rider that I can fill, and there are deeds to do. But to hope? I do not know” (RotK, 158-9)  To Faramir she declares, “And it is not always good to be healed in body. Nor is it always evil to die in battle, even in bitter pain. Were I permitted, in this dark hour I would choose the latter.”  Shortly thereafter, we get an even clearer statement from Éowyn , “I cannot lie in sloth, idle, caged. I looked for death in battle. But I have no died, and battle still goes on” (RotK, 264-5; emphasis mine). I think it is easy to miss but we must stress Éowyn is in these pages actively seeking death, because she can see no better ending, no better conclusion than that of Beowulf or Achilles.

We recognize the deep and self-harming depression in Éowyn’s death wish, but this is the script her culture has for her to achieve renown: she must ride into war and not out of it again. That perspective feels real because it is grounded in Tolkien’s own deep erudition of the literature of the kinds of societies Éowyn comes from – and the answers they have to her struggles and pains.

But, of course, Tolkien had another experience of war. This experience.

Via Wikipedia, a photograph of no man’s land near the Somme, 1918. The fallen soldiers are Canadians, but the National Archive entry for the photograph does not note which unit.

Tolkien’s Modern War

Once again, I imagine a fair bit of this is known to many of you but I think it is worthwhile to cover the details.

On June 28, 1915 J.R.R. Tolkien, 18 days out of his undergraduate education, applied for an officer’s commission ‘for the duration of the war.’  It is worth, I think, offering a bit of background here, as Great Britain came to the First World War in something of a different position than the powers on the continent.  The continental European powers had, by 1914, adopted armies along the lines of the Prussian army that had won the Franco-Prussian War (1870-1), which had led to the formation of Germany.  Under that system, these countries prepared very large reserves in peace time: young men were processed through the military, given basic training and after a few years’ service discharged to be called up when war came in their millions.  Rapid Prussian had won them the Franco-Prussian War and so this system was designed to keep the whole male populace in readiness for such a war.

Consequently, when the war broke out in August, 1914 the continental powers fielded massive armies: nearly two million Germans, one and a half million Russians, one and a quarter million Frenchmen, and half a million Austrians.  By contrast, Great Britain – protected by the Royal Navy and as concerned with colonial wars than European ones – had maintained a small, well-trained professional army and kept civilian society largely civilian.  The initial British deployment to France at the start of the war, the British Expeditionary Force, was thus supremely modest in size (albeit unusually well-trained): 115,000 men.  It was almost immediately apparent as the fighting began in the Battle of the Frontiers that this would not be sufficient.

Secretary of State for War, Herbert Kitchener created what would be the ‘New Army,’ a larger all-volunteer force to fill out the ranks and enlarge the British force to fight the kind of warfare in the trenches it was now facing.  The initial plan was for 500,000 volunteers; more than five million men would fight in the British Army during the First World War.  These were not the experienced, professional soldiers of the early BEF (the ‘old contemptibles’ they called themselves) nor were they reservists drawing out familiar and long-stockpiled weapons from depots laid in long preparation for just such a war.  Instead, they were the flower of British youth, drawn by patriotism to a war for which they were unprepared, to be fed to ravenous Ares by their hundreds of thousands.

Via Wikipedia, men of the Lancashire Fusiliers, Tolkien’s regiment (though not his battalion; this is the 1st battalion, Tolkien fought with the 11th) moving through a communications trench in 1916.

It was into this rapidly expanding force that Tolkien was commissioned, with the war already very much underway.  Enlisting ‘late’ as he had wanted to complete his studies Tolkien reported for training on July 19, 1915 and on the 4th of June, 1916, Tolkien was shipped to France to the Western Front.

He had arrived just in time for the great testing of Kitchener’s New Army (some elements of which had already been in combat for a year), a planned joint Franco-British offensive along the Somme River.  The French role in the attack had been downgraded because the German assault on Verdun (begun February of that year) had diverted French reserves, but this equally meant that the attack at the Somme would have to go forward no matter what and had to continue, no matter what went wrong: German attention from the straining French lines had to be diverted.  The battle, which began on the first of July, 1916 and ground horribly on until the 18th of November, was, of course, a famous and terrible failure.

Tolkien, deployed with the 11th Lancashire Fusiliers, arrived near the front on the 27th of June, by which point the pre-assault artillery barrage had already begun; preparatory barrages in WWI could last days or weeks.  Tolkien’s unit was in reserve for the first days of the battle (begun July 1), but his close friend and T.C.B.S. fellow (Tea Club, Barrovian Society)2 Robert Gilson was killed on the first day of the battle, by shellfire; he would not be the last of Tolkien’s boyhood friends the war claimed.  It was artillery that did most of the killing; infantry did most of the dying. Tolkien’s unit worked burial detail for the first days of the offensive as they waited to rotate forward.

Tolkien himself moved up to the front with his battalion on the 14th of July; battles in WWI ran for months and the bodies of those slain two weeks earlier remained in places on the field.  An attack that night to capture the village of Ovillers-la-Boisselle failed with heavy losses – Tolkien and his fellows watched as other elements of the 7th brigade tried to take the ground, were thrown back and then were sent to try themselves; Tolkien’s job as a signal’s officer was the hopeless task of trying to maintain the wire that enabled cable communications.  Another assault on the 15th, with no more success had left another British unit, a Warwickshire battalion, stranded behind enemy lines, so the Lancashire Fusiliers set to the bloody, muddy work of blasting their way with grenades through the trenches to relieve them.  By the 17th, the village had fallen; it had cost the British 5,121 men to take a tiny village that before the war had a population of just a few hundred and in any case had been bombed out of existence long before they arrived.

Via Wikipedia, a map of the Battle of the Somme (1916). The village of Ovillers can be spotted near the northern edge of the fighting area; this was where Tolkien saw combat in June and July.

Tolkien was back in the line in October for an attack on the 21st, which succeeded in the small ways that assaults in the First World War could: a little ground and a few prisoners taken and heavy losses on both sides.  Since Tolkien had arrived, his battalion had lost sixty men dead, four hundred and fifty wounded and another seventy four missing (out of a notional strength of roughly 1,000), a casualty rate of almost 60%. The Lancashire Fusiliers were kept in existence as a unit through the offensive only through continuous replacements.  Having been in and out of the front lines since June, on October 25th, Tolkien fell sick with trench fever, communicated by the lice that lived in the trenches. The sickness saved his life.  Not all of his friends were so lucky: fellow TCBS member Geoffrey Bache Smith was killed by shrapnel in November during the closing days of the battle.

As Tolkien himself famously notes in his preface, “to be caught in youth by 1914 was no less hideous an experience than to be involved in 1939 and the following years.  By 1918 all but one of my close friends were dead.”  It is striking that it is in the aftermath of this experience – Tolkien himself played down any notions that he was writing Middle Earth ‘in the trenches’ – it is in the aftermath of this experience that the first long, coherent part of the legendarium comes together and it is one of the bitterest and most tragic: the Fall of Gondolin.  One cannot help but sense in the lost innocence and spoiled purity of Gondolin, that Tolkien had lost a great deal too.

Far from the heroics of the tales in his books or of Eowyn’s dread hopes, his experience of war had been more like Bilbo’s experience. Like Tolkien, Bilbo at the Battle of the Five Armies comes to battle reluctantly, for a fight he had hoped could be avoided, and he is swiftly incapacitated – struck down by a stone rather than by trench fever.  When he returns to health, he finds not glory, but simply the list of dead friends: Thorin, Fili and Kili.

Robert Gilson (KIA Jul. 1, 1916), Ralph Payton (KIA, Jul. 22, 1916), Geoffrey Smith (WIA Nov. 29, d. of wounds Dec 3, 1916), Thomas Barnsley (KIA, Jul. 31, 1917).

Also like Bilbo, when the next war came, aged, he could only stay in Rivendell and wish good luck to the next generation that must bear the peril and wait anxiously for their return.  Of his sons, Michael Tolkien commissioned as a lieutenant in the British Army in 1941; Christopher joined the R.A.F. in 1943.  Mercifully, both survived.

Tolkien’s deep reading of ancient and medieval literature had equipped him to understand pre-modern societies in peace and in war: how kings and captains lead, how their armies are formed, what castles and fortresses are for and how they are made, what values and words hold them together, but his experience in the First World War of course shaped him also. In some cases, in trivial ways – as noted Tolkien knows, intuitively, how fast men march because he had been a lieutenant responsible for drilling and marching men.

But he also comes with a different, modern vision of war. To me, this has always come out most clearly in two passages: the dread that the defenders of Minas Tirith experience, watching Sauron’s army prepare their assault, complete with artillery and trenches of fire, unable to intervene to stop them, which seems so clearly to evoke the dread of bombardment and assault in the trenches of the Western Front.  And of course, Frodo’s sad reflection at the end of his journey, “I tried to save the Shire, and it has been saved, but not for me.”  The Return of the King, in particular, clearly stands as one of the great works of the Great War.  Tolkien’s deep and long marination in the literature of ancient and medieval societies, his mastery of their traditions, equipped him to write about societies like theirs, and wars like theirs, with a masterful understanding of their world; his experience of the First World War prepared him to understand those conflicts in a way his historical subjects rarely could.

Resolving Éowyn’s War

And at last, we can return to Éowyn in the Houses of Healing and perhaps understand her better, caught not between the woman and the warrior (Tolkien will let her be both), but between the two wars in Tolkien’s life: the glorious wars of heroes doomed to die he found in his books and the brutal, all-consuming horror that he was doomed to survive.  This contradiction comes together in many of Tolkien’s characters, but strikingly in Éowyn.

When Éowyn wakes first she is surprised to see Éomer, “for they said that you were slain. Nay, but that was only the dark voices in my dream. How long have I been dreaming?” (RotK, 158) Frodo, too, has dark dreams of the horrors of his part in the War of the Ring that never quite go away and one detects here an echo of what many in his generation experienced, of wounds that “cannot be wholly cured” (RotK, 299).  Éowyn has ridden out heroically, she has stood in battle heroically before a great foe and triumphed.  Yet, in her words, “I looked for death in battle.  But I have not died, and battle still goes on” (RotK 264-5).  She sought glory and achieved deeds of the greatest valor, but has found only real war: she looked for the beaches of Troy but has found the mud of Flanders; all the glory of deeds bled away leaving death as the only future she can see.

Faramir seeks to offer Éowyn a way forward, the way Tolkien himself must have found, a way past war and glory and death to something greater – peaceIt is a distinctively modern vision which imagines that the end of war might yet be found on this side of the grave. We, of course, already know that Faramir – who loves not the bright sword for its sharpness – has grown past the heroic, Homeric view of war and now he tries to draw Éowyn forward. Faramir declares to her, “you and I have both passed under the wings of Shadow, and the same hand drew us back” (RotK 266). Éowyn at first refuses, “I am a shieldmaiden and my hand is ungentle” (RotK 266) – and even seems to wither once the Shadow of war departs (her chance at a glorious death with it; RotK, 270).  But in talking with Faramir – who is open in praising that she has “won renown that shall not be forgotten” (RotK 270)– she is able to find a way beyond war: not into domesticity. Notably, he does not demand that Éowyn lay down her heroic status – unlike Aragorn, he does not offer her pity, but praise – her renown, her status as a hero is reaffirmed by Faramir, not rejected. But unlike her Greek and Norse forebearers – or so many of Tolkien’s childhood friends – she can enjoy that reward at peace on the other side of war.

Tolkien has, in a sense, gifted Éowyn with his modern conception of war, enabled her to see beyond war to the possibility of enduring peace and to the promise of a life lived for “all things that grow and are not barren.”  In Éowyn – though not only in her – he has reconciled the war of his books with the war of his life.

Heavy Precipitation in the West; Wintry Mix in the North; Fire Weather in the High Plains

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