Forty interesting facts about Australia

Australia was the richest country on earth, per capita, for decades. After the 1850s gold rush, up until the 1890s depression, Australia had the highest per capita income in the world. In 1850, probably only the United Kingdom and the Netherlands sat above Australia, by about 20 per cent, with the United States 9 per cent below. After the gold rushes Australia passed both, and from 1860 to 1890 the gap over the United States ran at 25 or 30 per cent.

And:

A cow cost as much as £84 in 1796, about several years’ wages for an English labourer. Only government, or its military/civil officers, owned cattle and horses in 1796, which were extraordinarily hard to import in the first decade, having to survive the long distance from South Africa or India. In England, an ordinary cow would have cost around £10.

And:

John Stuart Mill and Harriet Taylor seriously discussed running off to Australia. Mill was an active supporter of the movement that founded South Australia, joining the South Australian Association. Harriet’s younger brother, Arthur Hardy, migrated to South Australia and became a pastoralist and politician there. Liberals hoped that South Australia would become a progressive leader in political and social equality. Indeed, South Australia became the first self-governing jurisdiction in the world to allow women to vote and stand for parliament, in 1895.

And:

Australia’s 1890s economic depression was worse than the 1930s Great Depression. Real GDP per capita fell by around 20 per cent over the 1890s, compared with a fall of only about 10 per cent over the 1930s. Unlike America, Australia’s banking system largely remained intact during the 1930s. In part, that is because Australian banks remembered the catastrophic banking collapse of the 1890s, fuelled by huge credit growth and lax standards, particularly in Victoria. Of the 64 deposit-taking institutions in Australia in 1891, 54 were closed by 1893. A severe drought made economic recover even more difficult.

All forty are interesting, by Andrew Kemp on his very good Australia Substack.

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New Zealand’s Southern Wilderness

A roughly triangular island is almost entirely covered in green vegetation and has a large inlet on its eastern side.
Stewart Island/Rakiura, New Zealand’s third largest and southernmost inhabited island, appears in a rare, mostly cloud-free image acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on May 14, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

Stewart Island/Rakiura is the third-largest island in New Zealand, diminutive in comparison to the country’s North Island and South Island. Yet it hosts a population of one of the largest of the kiwi: the Stewart Island tokoeka. This flightless bird, a subspecies of the Southern brown kiwi (Apteryx australis), numbers in the thousands on the island, dwarfing its human population of approximately 500.

The avian national icon is just one slice of the natural riches on Stewart Island/Rakiura, a roughly triangular piece of land about 30 kilometers (19 miles) south of the South Island. Rakiura National Park covers about 85 percent of the bright green island. And as the Māori name—Rakiura, meaning “glowing skies”—suggests, it’s a prime location for viewing the aurora australis.

On the northern half of the island, podocarp and hardwood forests featuring coniferous trees with ancient lineages blanket the land. Other areas are covered in shrublands and wetlands, as well as coastal dunes such as those lining Mason Bay. A diversity of birdlife, including the kiwi, populates these relatively untouched ecosystems. The tall trees of the podocarp forests produce various fruits attractive to avian inhabitants, such as bellbirds, with their pure-toned calls, and the rare kākāpō, the world’s heaviest and only flightless parrot species.

Waves wash onto the rocky shore of Stewart Island/Rakiura near Halfmoon Bay on July 3, 2010.
Lindsey Doermann

One notable haven for birds lies on Ulva Island, located within the inlet near Halfmoon Bay (Oban). Rats, which once preyed on bird eggs and chicks there, were deemed eradicated in 1997, and the island has mostly remained free of non-native predators. Conservationists have since embarked on a project on the much larger Stewart Island/Rakiura to eliminate rats, possums, feral cats, and hedgehogs.

When darkness falls, Stewart Island/Rakiura’s human denizens can look skyward for the chance to observe stars, auroras, nearby dwarf galaxies, and other features of the Southern Hemisphere night sky. In 2019, the remote and sparsely inhabited island was designated an International Dark Sky Sanctuary.

Amateur astronomers there and in other places with good night-sky views might search for objects of interest through Hubble’s Night Sky Challenge. In May, when this image was acquired, targets imaged by NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope that were also visible from Earth’s southern latitudes included a star cluster called the Jewel Box and a peculiar elliptical galaxy known as Centaurus A, which may have resulted from two galaxies colliding.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Photo and story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

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Wednesday 29 July 1663

Up about 6 o’clock, and found the people to have just done, and Hannah not gone to bed yet, but was making clean of the yard and kitchen. Will newly gone to bed. So I to my office.

And having given some order to Tom Hater, to whom I gave leave for his recreation to go down to Portsmouth this Pay, I went down to Wapping to Sir W. Warren, and there staid an hour or two discoursing of some of his goods and then things in general relating to this office, &c., and so home, and there going to Sir William Batten (having no stomach to dine at home, it being yet hardly clean of last night’s [mess] [turds – L&M]) and there I dined with my Lady and her daughter and son Castle, and mighty kind she is and I kind to her, but, Lord! how freely and plainly she rails against Commissioner Pett, calling him rogue, and wondering that the King keeps such a fellow in the Navy.

Thence by and by walked to see Sir W. Pen at Deptford, reading by the way a most ridiculous play, a new one, called “The Politician Cheated.” After a little sitting with him I walked to the yard a little and so home again, my Will with me, whom I bade to stay in the yard for me, and so to bed.

This morning my brother Tom was with me, and we had some discourse again concerning his country mistress, but I believe the most that is fit for us to condescend to, will not content her friends.

Read the annotations

Live coverage: SpaceX to launch classified payload for National Reconnaissance Office

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stands in the launch position at Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station ahead of the launch of the NROL-95 mission. Image: SpaceX

Update July 30, 1:31 a.m. EDT (0431 UTC): SpaceX adjusted the T-0 liftoff time.

A classified payload for the National Reconnaissance Office is heading to orbit in the predawn hours of Thursday, July 30.

The NROL-95 mission will launch onboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket flying from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 is scheduled for 3:10 a.m. EDT (0710 UTC).

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about an hour prior to liftoff.

The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 70 percent chance for favorable weather during Thursday’s launch opportunity. Meteorologists said they are monitoring the possibility of interference from cloud cover and thunderstorms.

“Significant weather model ambiguity remains regarding the longevity, extent and location of remnant storms and associated cloud cover during the overnight periods, thus the threat of weather violations for the primary and secondary launch opportunities will remain higher than

typical values for summer overnight launches, albeit with still a decent potential for acceptable weather,” launch weather officers wrote.

SpaceX will launch the mission using the Falcon 9 booster with the tail number B1096. This will be its seventh flight following the launch of NASA’s IMAP and CRS-34; Kuiper Falcon 1; NROL-77; GPS III-9; and Starlink 6-87.

Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1096 will target a landing at Landing Zone 2 at the Cape. If successful, this will be the 18th landing at this site and the 642nd booster landing for SpaceX.

The NROL-95 mission was the third mission procured for the NRO and launched on a Falcon 9 rocket as part of the National Security Space Launch Phase 2 contract, managed by the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command.

The NROL-95 task order was awarded to SpaceX in August 2024.

Actually, Starliner might fly into space this year

When we last checked in on Boeing's Starliner spacecraft in February, NASA was announcing that it had formally classified the 2024 crewed flight of the Starliner spacecraft as a “Type A” mishap, an acknowledgement that the test flight was a serious failure.

At the time, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said the space agency was working with Boeing to "fully understand the risks associated" with the Starliner spacecraft, and to remediate them. Starliner would not fly its next mission, a cargo flight to the International Space Station, until those problems were identified and remediated. He declined to put a date on the test flight.

However, it now appears this work is proceeding apace.

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Reforms to the PhD?

The Trump administration is pairing top universities with corporate giants in an effort to steer traditional PhD programs toward national scientific priorities.

Today, the White House and National Science Foundation are announcing a $47 million pilot program to fund around 250 four-year doctorates in technical fields, starting this fall. Students in the pilot will be placed at an industry partner, where they will spend at least one year doing “practical research” that can go towards their dissertation. NSF’s investment will fund three years of these PhDs, with 31 universities and 20-plus companies funding the rest.

“About the same amount of basic research is done today in academia as in the private sector,” Michael Kratsios, the director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, told Pirate Wires. “Over time, while the ecosystem has changed and different players have emerged where important scientific work is being done, the institutions which train our next generation of scientists have not really been updated.”

…The pilot represents a small fraction of the more than 45,000 science and engineering doctorates awarded annually — but the administration says it’s a “scalable model” that can expand to more universities and companies.

Here is the full story, I will pass along more details as I learn them.

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Measuring LLMs’ Ability to Perform Cryptanalysis

There’s new benchmark measuring AI’s ability to perform mathematical cryptanalysis. Anthropic’s frontier model actually found new attacks.

The benchmark: “CryptanalysisBench: Can LLMs do Cryptanalysis?” The idea is to benchmark the ability of LLMs to discover new mathematical cryptanalytic attacks against a series of historical algorithms.

Abstract: Cryptanalysis—the task of finding attacks against cryptographic schemes—its at the intersection of mathematical reasoning and cybersecurity, two areas where LLMs have advanced fastest. Cryptanalysis represents both a clean testbed for frontier reasoning (as practical attacks can be automatically verified) and a domain with unusually high stakes, since the primitives under study underpin our digital security. In this paper we ask whether LLMs can do cryptanalysis, and find that the answer is increasingly yes. We introduce CryptanalysisBench, 191 tasks across six families of cryptographic primitives (block ciphers, hash functions, etc.) drawn primarily from four NIST standardization competitions. Our benchmark consists of three tiers: (i) primitives with known practical breaks; (ii) primitives with no known practical break, evaluated both at full strength and as scaled-down variants; and (iii) a challenge set of production primitives at the frontier of cryptanalysis. Five frontier models (Claude Opus 4.8, Sonnet 5, Mythos 5, GPT-5.5, and the open-weights GLM-5.2) break 65%­86% of Tier 1 schemes, 6­12 Tier-2 schemes at full strength, and 24­61 across all scaled-down variants. Beyond deriving known results, models produce novel cryptanalysis, such as a key-recovery attack that exploits a design flaw in the SpoC AEAD and an error in KINDI’s published CCA-security proof, both to the best of our knowledge not previously known.

We release CryptanalysisBench as a tool to help track if (or when) AI cryptanalysis becomes a serious factor and as a scaffold for stress-testing candidate schemes before deployment. The attacks that the benchmark already surfaces are an early snapshot of a fast-moving frontier that may soon match, and in places exceed, the published state of the art.

Anthropic used the benchmark to test Mythos Preview, and found new vulnerabilities in Hawk and reduced-round AES.

Still early results, but this is definitely something to watch.

SlashDot thread.

Measuring the Tendency of AI Agents to Go Rogue

This essay was written with Barath Raghavan, and originally appeared in The Guardian.

In July, Hugging Face, a company that hosts much of the world’s AI software and open-source AI models, was hacked. A malicious dataset had been used to run code on one of its servers. Whoever was behind it captured internal security credentials and moved through systems over a weekend, running thousands of actions from a swarm of temporary server environments. It looked like the work of a sophisticated criminal group.

It was not. It was one of OpenAI’s new, still unreleased GPT models.

Their science experiment had escaped the lab. OpenAI was running the unreleased AI model through a benchmark that tests how well AI can successfully hack systems. To push the limits and evaluate the AI’s true capability, the company switched off the safety filters that normally stop it from doing this kind of hacking. Aware that this could go wrong, they confined the AI to an isolated environment and denied it access to the internet.

But the new AI cheated. It took literally its goal to get as high of a score as possible. It broke out on to the open internet. It inferred, probably from its training data, that it could “solve” the task by getting the answers from Hugging Face’s servers. So it chained together stolen credentials and further unknown security exploits to hack the company’s network.

Nobody instructed the AI to do any of this. It was, in OpenAI’s words, “hyperfocused on finding a solution” to the test it was being given. And while this might seem like something new with AI, it’s really very old. This is how a genie behaves, and it is a key challenge with AI agents in general.

In folklore, genies—and other magical beings—grant wishes literally, not how the wisher intended. King Midas asked that everything he touched turn to gold, and starved. The sorcerer’s apprentice wanted the broom to fill the cistern, and it performed its task so well that it flooded the house.

We now have machines that do this. Ask a modern AI agent to save money on your phone plan and it might simply cancel the plan. Tell it to book a flight, and it might hack the airline website to override restrictions. Or, like OpenAI, ask it to do well on a test and it might break into another company to steal the answers. Each time, it recognizably completed the task you set, but it didn’t do what you would have wanted.

This isn’t malicious behavior. No one asked for, or wanted, Hugging Face to be hacked. OpenAI and Hugging Face and the AI were ostensibly on the same side, and the AI was trying to do what it had been asked. That’s what makes it so difficult to guard against: you can’t filter for bad instructions because the instructions were fine.

The gap is between the words we use and what we mean by them. We call that gap the Genie coefficient.

AI labs know this is a problem, and they’re quietly saying so. For example, the Chinese lab Moonshot recently warned that its latest AI model may have “excessive proactiveness” and “make unexpected decisions on the user’s behalf”. The UK’s AI Security Institute has started tracking “cheating behavior in frontier model evaluations”. We wouldn’t tolerate a car that is excessively proactive or ruthlessly efficient, and yet that’s the reality of AI today.

Improvement is possible. Just as AIs have gotten much better at resisting prompt injection attacks over the last few years, we can safely predict that they will get better at avoiding genie-like behavior. The point of the Genie coefficient is to track progress. AI companies like benchmarks, and they all work to compete to be the best.

Dozens of benchmarks and leaderboards tell us how well these AI models write code, perform logical reasoning, and pass standardized legal and medical exams. But there is nothing that scores whether a system does what you actually meant. We need to develop a measure for this, test it regularly, and push for improvement. We’re not going to have trustworthy AI agents without it.

Long-Lived Vulnerability in Microsoft Secure Boot

Microsoft’s Secure Boot has had a serious vulnerability for most of its existence.

An industry-wide standard Microsoft invented to protect Windows, and later Linux, devices from firmware infections has been trivial to bypass for 13 of its 14 years of existence. The discovery was made by researchers at security firm ESET after identifying 11 firmware images, at least one from 2013, that were known to be defective but remained signed by the software company anyway.

The images are known as shims, which were invented to extend Secure Boot to Linux devices and utility software. Using a technique simple enough to be performed by novice hackers, these old, forgotten shims can be used to completely circumvent the protection, which is embedded into the UEFI (Unified Extensible Firmware Interface) of the device’s motherboard. The gaffe is the result of the failure by Microsoft, which oversees the signing of shims, to revoke the publicly available images once vulnerabilities were found in them.

Vera Rubin Observatory

'Spurious signals from the kitchen' is harder for an optical telescope than a radio one, but with enough determination and creativity, I believe it's possible.

What should I ask Jared Diamond?

Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him.  His whole career is fair game, though many of my questions will cover his forthcoming book Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings (When) Do Leaders Matter?

From the Amazon summary: “Now, in Profits, Prophets, Coaches and Kings, he studies leaders throughout time to answer the question: do the actions of individuals truly influence history? Or is humanity subject to larger historical, technological, cultural, geographical forces, far beyond the influence of individuals, no matter how powerful they may seem?”

So what should I ask him?

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‘eBay’s Bizarre Cyberstalking Saga Ends With a $56 Million Settlement’

Emma Roth, The Verge:

eBay and three former executives will pay $55.7 million as part of a settlement with a Massachusetts couple targeted with a bizarre harassment and cyberstalking campaign in 2019, as reported earlier by CNBC. The settlement will resolve a lengthy legal saga that revealed how eBay’s former executives sent live insects, a bloody pig mask, a funeral wreath, and other strange items to David and Ina Steiner over their newsletter’s coverage of eBay.

The Steiners, who operate the EcommerceBytes newsletter, sued eBay and its former executives — including ex-CEO Devin Wenig — in 2021. The lawsuit accused the company and its executives of launching a coordinated effort to “intimidate, threaten to kill, torture, terrorize, stalk and silence” the Steiners in an attempt to “stifle” their eBay-related reporting.

I don’t think I’ve ever linked to this saga before, but I’m not sure why. One of those stories that slipped through cracks. It’s an astonishing tale. Could be the basis for Coen brothers movie.

From David Streitfeld’s 2020 overview of the saga for The New York Times (gift link):

Prosecutors say that on Aug. 7, Ms. Popp — the “Mom” to Mr. Baugh’s “Dad” — began sending Twitter messages to Ms. Steiner via a fake account, @Tui_Elei. The profile picture was a skull, and he seemed to be an eBay user from Samoa who believed that EcommerceBytes had harmed his sales. Ms. Steiner ignored the messages, even as the tone got angrier and more abusive. @Tui_Elei wrote: “I guess im goin to have to get ur attention another way bitch…”

A parade of disturbing deliveries began at 4 p.m. on Aug. 10, when a package containing a bloody pig mask arrived at the Steiners’ home. Fourteen minutes later, @Tui_Elei wrote: “DO I HAVE UR ATTENTION NOW????”

The Steiners received a book titled “Grief Diaries: Surviving the Loss of a Spouse” and a funeral wreath. They got fly larvae and live spiders and a box of cockroaches. Copies of the September issue of “Hustler: Barely Legal” touting “eye-popping 18-year-olds” arrived at the homes of neighbors with David Steiner’s name on them. The Twitter bombardment continued, as @Tui_Elei began to hint at violence: “wen u hurt our bizness u hurt our familys… Ppl will do ANYTHING 2 protect family!!!!”

It’s certainly not how anyone would plan a business strategy, but this settlement seemingly makes the Steiners some of the most successful independent writers in history. Here’s Ina Steiner’s piece on the settlement at eCommerceBytes.

 ★ 

The Apple Upgrade Situation

The final measure of any financial negotiation is the feeling of whether or not you got a “deal”.

That prior sentence… makes no sense.

I wrote “measure,” and then six words later I wrote “feeling”. A feeling is never a measure, but yet, when you hand over your hard-earned money to buy a thing, you’ll feel better because you believe the value received is higher than the dollars paid.

Too abstract. Here’s a good example:

I have felt since it was announced that the Apple iPhone Upgrade Program has not just been a deal, but a steal. The specifics:

  • You apply for a loan for a full-price iPhone at 0%.
  • If approved, your payments are split over 24 months.
  • Pay for 24 months, and the phone is yours.

That was just the deal; the steal was that it was low effort every single year to get a new phone. I’d re-up for a new phone, and Apple would forgive the remaining payments of the loan because I’d signed up for another 24 months. Oh, and bonus, AppleCare was included, which was a total steal because I hate iPhone cases (iPhones are designed to be felt) and, uh, also I have been known to drop my phone.

Felt fair. The Apple bet was that users would embrace the original plan, were going to re-up regularly, and Apple would refurb the phone on a strong used market. That bet ended on a Tuesday. Apple retired the Upgrade Program and replaced it with Apple Upgrade: a Klarna-financed lease covering iPhones, Watches, iPads, and Macs. The loan became a lease. And it feels different.

Follow the AppleCare Money

At first glance, the new plan looks cheaper. The original plan: one year of iPhone 17 Pro (256GB, $1,099 sticker) was ~$57/month. 12 payments, trade-in, restart: ~$684 for the year. The new one, same phone: $45.99/month on the 12-month lease: $552 for the year.

But wait! The first and most important change to the new plan is that AppleCare is no longer included. Adding it back to this phone at $13.99/month: $720 for the year.

But wait once more! You have AppleCare One? Well, good news, your new iPhone can ride along in a $5.99/month slot, bringing us to $624 for the year. In fact, and illuminatingly so, the only way to get the good price on iPhone-plus-AppleCare is to get three pieces of hardware on the AppleCare One plan, which means having three pieces of hardware.

This might sound reasonable until you think about the number of times I’ve never had the opportunity to drop my Mac Studio. For all Mac hardware in general, there was that one time Rands Jr. somehow cracked her MacBook screen. That one time — in a couple of decades.

AppleCare is insurance. Like all insurance, you pay for protection from expensive, but hopefully unlikely disasters. In the event of the unlikely, you don’t pay. My issue with this approach is it appears Apple is removing AppleCare from the upgrade plan and herding folks towards AppleCare One because margins on insurance are sweet — like 2x the margins on hardware. I already pay Apple insurance. It’s not called insurance; it’s called “incredibly high quality hardware.” I gleefully pay Apple a premium not just because of its cutting-edge design, but also exemplary quality. With Dell, I pay for the insurance because the motherboard on my fancy Alienware gaming PC has already failed once.

It Still Feels Like a Deal, Not a Steal

When I buy a ticket at United, just before I click purchase, there is a must-acknowledge box I am required to read. It is a light-fear-inducing reminder that “Stuff changes when you are flying. You never know, but… maybe plop down a couple of hundred dollars because, well, you never know and we know better so maybe yeah, pay us money, and we’ll make it ok.”

Never in the history of ever have I done this. Yes, in the middle of winter when travel plans are truly up in the air, I think about it, but mostly… gross. This is a business trying to eke out high-margin dollars just before the sale when you are most worried about the value of your purchase.

There is genuine value in AppleCare, and I’ve considered AppleCare One because the Rands house has a lot of hardware, but the more I stare at the new plan, the more I feel a little gross.

I’ll stick with the plan for the phone along with additional AppleCare (not AppleCare One) because, remember, it’s whether or not I feel I got a deal. The primary intangible is that Apple is quite good at operations. The process of re-upping for the new phone has historically been trivial.

  • After the new phone has been announced, click a couple of things in the Store app, and you’re done.
  • New phone arrives promptly along with a pre-labeled return box for your old phone.
  • Drop that box off at FedEx. And done.

New phone sitting at the door. Almost like magic. Almost.

The Apple Upgrade Situation

the loan became a lease
Apple retired the decade-old iPhone Upgrade Program for a Klarna-financed lease. The monthly price dropped; the AppleCare money moved. Follow it.
Grumbles
Lots to digest here. I’m here for you. Read the Grumbles-infused analysis. A well-sourced scoreboard of who won and who didn’t.

Help Us With This Milestone

Thank you to everyone who contributed yesterday. A big day of contributions that has gotten us near one of the biggest milestones on the way to our goal. TPM Publisher Joe Ragazzo and I have developed – both statistically and instinctively – a feel for the cadence of the Annual TPM Journalism Fund Drive having run them now for several years. $0 to $250,000 is a sprint. There’s a lot of energy. $250,000 to $400,000 is a slog. Like pushing a boulder up a hill. Once we hit $400,000 it’s a bit like getting to the top of the hill and rolling the boulder down is a lot easier. Not easy. It’s still essential to remind people, make the case. (I have moments wondering: does it make sense to show how the drive sausage is made? Well, in for a time in for a dollar: knocking down that fourth wall has always been the essence of TPM’s reporting and how we communicate with the TPM community.) We’re now $21,350 from that $400,000 milestone. Can you help us get there? If you haven’t had a spare moment to join us this year today would be a great time. Just click right here.

The Revolt of the Insiders

Here’s a brief follow up, genetically if not literally similar to my post from earlier today about AI bubbles. Axios has a report on the public comments on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposal to “ease” (i.e., get rid of) the requirement that public companies issue quarterly disclosure reports. The SEC has received almost a quarter million comments (orders of magnitude more than normal) and they are almost universally against it. Some of this is organized, organizations or company that represent or advocate for investors trying to get people to write in. But it’s mainly that there is simply zero constituency for this: retail investors, institutional investors, former SEC chairs, academics who study business. According to Axios, the pro side was “the Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable and Exxon Mobile.” As they note, the agency has to consider the comments. It’s not a vote. They can move forward regardless.

What struck me here is that it’s almost impossible to look at the current state of the U.S. economy, equity markets, trends in retail investing, the widespread public exposure to mutual funds and index funds, and the increasing inattention to white-collar crime and think that what the economy needs is less transparency. The current head of the SEC, Paul Atkins, has pitched these changes as a way to “make IPOs great again.” First of all, it’s not entirely clear why IPOs should be great again. We want new companies. New companies finding new points of market need, devising new services, finding ways to chip away at the dead wood of monopoly and bureaucratic sclerosis is important to the economy. But that’s not the same as a high-octane culture of IPOs. Indeed, to the extent there are fewer IPOs, it’s more tied to the growth of monopolies. If there are new ideas to be nurtured, it’s happening within the monopolies, or they’re bought out or snuffed out early by those monopolies to ward off future competitors.

But look at what Atkins wants to do and it’s pretty clearly a way to allow startups to go to market without disclosing so much about what they’re selling — upping the ratio of sizzle to steak. IPOs are largely selling hype and hope. That’s kind of in the nature of the beast. But that is offset by the need to at least put out a decent amount of fine print and data about what’s actually happening, real numbers stated with at least significant liability (civil and criminal) for falsification.

A lot of people don’t look under the hood. But they can. And retail investors are almost always listening to stock analysts and business reporters who at least should be. These new regulations really amount to locking the hood. Or at least greatly extending the window for game-playing and skullduggery before the requirement of occasionally popping the hood. Of course the whole world of memestocks is one in which sizzle has, one might say, reached escape velocity. We don’t care about the fundamentals. The more dead the company the better. But that is part of the problem, not part of the solution.

There are lots of reasons why this is bad for the economy. But it’s also out of step with the public mood. The single most pervasive belief, suspicion, anger in our world today is the belief that the deck is stacked for the insiders, the elites, the people with the inside track. This is literally an effort to give the insiders a bigger leg up. It’s no surprise that the public response to this regulation is so big and so almost universally negative. Truly no one wants this. And to the extent there are people who do want it, they know not to say it too publicly. As one of the experts interviewed by Axios put it, most proposed regulatory changes are obscure, hard to evaluate without a lot of technical knowledge. This is really simple. Anyone can understand it. Companies have to disclose less about the health of their businesses. It’s pretty hard to hear that and think, yes, that’s the kind of innovation we need to jumpstart this economy! Unless you want to bring a much hyped but struggling business to public equity markets and engineer a fat public exit with dumb public money. Then it makes lots of sense.

It’s not like equity market regulations don’t have a history of being contested. They have been forever. One of the biggest and most unwelcome post-global financial crisis reforms was requiring C-suite executives to sign off on these public disclosures and do so in a way that had real teeth. If they’re wrong, the CEO or CFO could be civilly or criminally liable. Giving the greed that is the fuel of capitalism more free reign is in the nature of Wall Street and public markets, the push and pull between advocates of transparency and well-functioning markets and the hunger of the sharks. But there’s an audacity to these proposals which operates on a different level.

It’s impossible to separate this impulse from the degenerate culture of Trump family and Trumpism generally, which is rife with forms of business that are often little different from confidence schemes, pyramids and swindles: random crypto coins, betting markets, government contractor startups with boards salted with the president’s sons. It’s a truism verging on cliche that Trump built his fortune and name on a form of low-rent capitalism almost indistinguishable from fraud. Hyping failing or non-existent businesses and then finding creative ways to unload them on unsuspecting investors, stiffing contractors, fast-talking fast enough that bankers who should have known better often were so bamboozled they kept lending him money. Just as northeastern old money brought its culture to government and the oil men of the southwest brought theirs, now Trump and his world has brought theirs. It’s swindles all the way down and increasingly a culture of swindlery.

Apple Upgrade — New Program With Klarna for Leasing iPhones, Macs, iPads, and More for Near-Zero Interest

Apple Newsroom:

Apple today announced Apple Upgrade, a new product leasing program provided by Klarna for iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac, and iPad available on the Apple Store online, in the Apple Store app, and at Apple Store locations in the United States. Apple Upgrade makes it even easier for customers to get the Apple products they love with a leasing plan that is right for them. [...]

Apple Upgrade offers 12- and 24-month leasing options for iPhone and Apple Watch, and 24- and 36-month leasing options for Mac and iPad. Leasing prices start as low as $17.99 per month for iPhone, $11.99 for Apple Watch, $24.99 for Mac, and $11.99 for iPad. When customers first enroll in Apple Upgrade, they can further lower their monthly lease payments by trading in their currently owned device through Apple Trade In. Customers can also earn 3 percent Daily Cash back when making their lease payments with Apple Card.

Michael Tsai, quoting Juli Clover at MacRumors:

Juli Clover:

The payoff amount is the difference between what was paid during the leasing period and the retail price of the device, minus any remaining trade-in credits. Klarna is not charging a fee for the leasing program, so an iPhone that’s $1,099 can be leased and then purchased for $1,099 with no extra cost beyond taxes.

I guess this means that, for a bit of hassle, you can essentially buy the device for the list price at 0% interest.

If you’d rather lease or buy over time, this seems like as good a deal as you could hope for, without any catches.

 ★ 

Pastebot 3

New from Tapbots: version 3 of their excellent clipboard manager for Mac. There are so many clipboard managers for the Mac. I run two other apps — Keyboard Maestro and LaunchBar — that offer good clipboard managers as ancillary features. But for years now I’ve chosen to use Pastebot. Chief among my favorite features:

  • Remembers up to 1,500 clippings (up from a mere 1,000 in v2).
  • Syncs via iCloud. If I copy something on one Mac, it’s in my Pastebot history on my others Macs.
  • That sweet Tapbots UI.

Pastebot 3 requires MacOS 26 Tahoe or later. That means I’m only using it on secondary Macs for now — my primary workstation will continue running MacOS 15 Sequoia until I upgrade directly to 27 Golden Gate later this year. But iCloud sync continues to work between Pastebot 2 and 3.

New features include more powerful filters (e.g. you can use a filter to copy a URL and then paste that URL in Markdown’s link syntax), a CLI tool (as yet undocumented), and Shortcuts support.

$39 for a license via direct purchase, with a $13 discount for users of previous versions. It’s still pending approval in the Mac App Store, where it will cost $25/year or $3/month.

 ★ 

Count Those Underscores

Nate Anderson , reporting for Ars Technica under the headline “A Missing Underscore Sent Innocent Man to Prison for 18 Months”:

Police were looking for a man using the Kik messaging service under the name “fus__ro_dah” (two underscores after “fus”), but they accidentally requested records for the username “fus_ro_dah” (one underscore after “fus”). This one-character difference led them not to the perpetrator but to a Canadian man named Brandon Klayme. [...]

Despite finding no evidence of the crime on his digital devices, Canadian police arrested Klayme in 2020 on child sex abuse charges. He was convicted after a trial in 2023 and sentenced in 2024 to 18 months in prison. He served the full term.

Even after release, Klayme continued to fight his conviction. In the process of preparing his appeal, the username mistake that led to all these years of disruption was finally discovered. On Thursday, the Nova Scotia Court of Appeal overturned Klayme’s conviction, writing: “Mr. Klayme is factually innocent of the offences. He should never have been charged, let alone convicted.”

Via Paul Kafasis, who asks:

While I understand how the mistake led to this poor guy becoming a suspect, I really can’t fathom how he was convicted. What the hell happened during that trial?

Contra Ars’s headline, it wasn’t the missing underscore that sent Klayme to prison for 18 months.

 ★ 

Wednesday assorted links

1. Mark Zuckerberg on our AI future (WSJ).

2. Claims about beauty (recommended).

3. 26 charts of Australia in trouble.

4. Hans Moravec interview (right now ungated?).

5. Those new service sector therapist jobs end the fertility crisis too.

6. The Routledge Handbook of Classical Liberalism.

7. Profile of Reihan Salam (NYT).

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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NASA’s Curiosity Views a Sand-Capped Butte

1 Min Read

NASA’s Curiosity Views a Sand-Capped Butte

A layered, rocky mound topped with smooth sand sits amid a vast, rocky expanse on Mars, illustrating the complex geological history being studied by NASA's Curiosity rover.
PIA26730
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS

Description

NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover captured this sand-capped butte, nicknamed “Miraflores,” estimated to be about 20 feet (6 meters) tall, with its Mast Camera, or Mastcam, on June 11, 2026, the 4,923rd Martian day, or sol, of the mission. The butte was left behind as surrounding rock eroded away over time, deepening the broad valley Curiosity is climbing through. 

The surrounding area includes an expanse of terrain covered in surface features called polygons.

The panorama is made up of 11 individual images that were sent to Earth and stitched together. The color has been adjusted to match lighting conditions as the human eye would see them on Earth.

Curiosity was built by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which is managed by Caltech in Pasadena, California. JPL leads the mission on behalf of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington as part of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program portfolio. Malin Space Science Systems in San Diego built and operates Mastcam.

To learn more about Curiosity, visit:

science.nasa.gov/mission/msl-curiosity

The post NASA’s Curiosity Views a Sand-Capped Butte appeared first on NASA Science.

NASA’s Curiosity Discovers a Field of Martian Polygons

2 Min Read

NASA’s Curiosity Discovers a Field of Martian Polygons

A panoramic view of a sweeping Martian plain covered in patterned fractures leading toward distant hills showcases the terrain explored by NASA's Curiosity rover to investigate the planet's past environment.
PIA26729
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS

Description

NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover captured this 360-degree view of an expanse of terrain covered in surface features called polygons on June 19 and 20, 2026, the 4,930th and 4,931st Martian days, or sols, of the mission. The rover has found polygons several times in the past, but never so many in one place. Across the center of this image, the surface is covered by shapes ranging in size from roughly 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 centimeters) in diameter. The features also surround and wrap around a sand-capped butte nicknamed “Miraflores,” seen at far right in the image.

A panoramic view of a sweeping Martian plain covered in patterned fractures leading toward distant hills showcases the terrain explored by NASA's Curiosity rover to investigate the planet's past environment.
Figure A

Figure A is a crop from the bottom-center of the panorama highlighting the polygons and their honeycomb-like textures.

Polygonal textures can form from a variety of conditions, including drying out of the surface (like in mud cracks), temperature cycles, compaction after being buried, or shrinkage of the sediment from loss of water or mineral changes. Scientists are measuring characteristics of these polygons to home in on which process formed them.

This panorama was captured by Curiosity’s Mast Camera, or Mastcam, as the rover continued its ascent of the foothills of Mount Sharp, a 3-mile-tall (5-kilometer-tall) mountain that it’s been climbing since 2014. 

The panorama is made up of 340 individual images that were sent to Earth and stitched together. The color has been adjusted to match lighting conditions as the human eye would see them on Earth.

Curiosity was built by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which is managed by Caltech in Pasadena, California. JPL leads the mission on behalf of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington as part of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program portfolio. Malin Space Science Systems in San Diego built and operates Mastcam.

To learn more about Curiosity, visit:

science.nasa.gov/mission/msl-curiosity

The post NASA’s Curiosity Discovers a Field of Martian Polygons appeared first on NASA Science.

Reaction wheel failures leave Swift rescue mission spinning in orbit

Nearly a month since its launch, a first-of-its-kind commercial satellite built to save NASA's Swift gamma-ray telescope from a fiery reentry is having problems of its own, the agency announced Tuesday.

The Link satellite developed by Katalyst Space Technologies "experienced issues with attitude control" over the weekend, NASA said, causing the spacecraft to spin and resulting in sporadic communications.

"Preliminary investigation shows that two of Link's three reaction wheels currently are not operable, and there is some loss of functionality in its cold gas thruster system," NASA said.

Read full article

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You Can Just Do Stuff

One of the truly bizarre things about the coverage of NYC’s mayoral race (which led to the election of Zohran Mamdani) is that the coverage was along the lines of “Would a Mayor Mamdani nationalize the means of production and institute a dictatorship of the proletariat”, while the reality is he’s doing a lot of things any competent Democrat should have–and clearly could have–done. The latest tyranny from the dictatorship of the proletariat is… small business regulations (boldface mine)?

On Tuesday, Zohran Mamdani – the politician at the center of a revived rightwing panic about socialists and purported communists winning elections across America – posted a video on X of himself putting a sheet of paper with the phrase “RED TAPE” into a paper shredder. Other pieces of paper, with phrases like “cumbersome fees and fines” and “a permit you need just to serve ice-cream”, were shredded too. The video, set to Wu Tang Clan’s If Time Is Money, shows Mamdani joining a handful of city officials and small business owners throwing the resulting paper shreds into the air like confetti…

At a press conference in the Bronx, Mamdani listed some of the onerous policies getting the axe. Bodega owners will no longer need a separate license to sell the same products outside the store – like fruit and flowers – as inside. Restaurants will no longer need a “superfluous” frozen dessert permit to sell ice-cream on top of the permit already required to sell food. Barber shops will no longer have to renew their permit every year, instead doing so every three years. Street fair vendor permit fees will be reduced, restaurant inspections will be sped up, and equipment registration fees will be eliminated for a year.

A corresponding executive order signed by Mamdani on Monday will also expand the NYC Best program, assigning each of the city’s 180,000 small businesses – which employ an estimated 1 million people – a case worker to help owners navigate the Big Apple’s sometimes byzantine bureaucracy.

Like I said:

The reforms are also at odds with the hysterical caricature of Mamdani being manufactured by Donald Trump, the Republican party, and rightwing media. The right has repeatedly depicted the mayor, and a wave of his fellow electeds from the Democratic Socialists of America, as raging anti-business radicals. Appearing on Fox News in May, Bruce Blakeman, the Republican nominee for New York governor, alleged that if “you own… a “small business, a grocery store, a bodega, Zohran Mamdani wants to take your property.”

It’s clear from the opposition, both rightwing and moderate Democrats, that they fear, not that Mamdani will run the city into the ground, but that he will be successful.

Because this is stuff moderate Democrats could have done all along, but they chose not to do so.

And I hope D.C.’s mayor elect is taking notes.

Retail investors should beware perpetual futures

These peculiar products, popular in the crypto world, are hitting the mainstream

Trying to Rewrite History

A quick Chris Kluwe thing

I know I said I was taking a week off—and I am. But this was great, and this message should resonate.

It does with me.

July 28, 2026

Turning it over to Buddy tonight.

I’ll see you tomorrow.

[Photo by Buddy Poland.]

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Politics Chat, July 28, 2026

Politics Chat, July 28, 2026

ESA opens call to repurpose Gateway communications module

Illustration of the Lunar Gateway. Credit: NASA

JOHANNESBURG — The European Space Agency is moving ahead with plans to examine the feasibility of repurposing Lunar Link, a communications system developed for NASA’s now-paused Gateway space station, as […]

The post ESA opens call to repurpose Gateway communications module appeared first on SpaceNews.

NASA selects successor to CAPSTONE lunar mission

CAPSTONE 02

NASA has selected Advanced Space to fly a successor to a cislunar smallsat mission that will test rendezvous and proximity operations around the moon.

The post NASA selects successor to CAPSTONE lunar mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

H3 to launch next ispace lunar lander mission

H3 launch

Japanese lunar lander developer ispace has selected the H3 rocket to launch its next mission in 2028, creating what the companies called Japan’s first private lunar transportation system.

The post H3 to launch next ispace lunar lander mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Boeing still working with NASA to schedule next Starliner flight

Starliner CFT launch preps

Boeing is still working with NASA to determine when to fly its CST-100 Starliner commercial crew vehicle on a cargo mission to the International Space Station.

The post Boeing still working with NASA to schedule next Starliner flight appeared first on SpaceNews.

Chinese startup raises funds for space situational awareness constellation, joining commercial SSA rush

SINGAPORE — A Beijing-based startup has secured around $14 million to build a satellite constellation for tracking orbital objects, adding to China’s growing SSA sector.  Xingchen Daohe, also known as […]

The post Chinese startup raises funds for space situational awareness constellation, joining commercial SSA rush appeared first on SpaceNews.

Swift reboost mission encounters attitude control problems

Link solar panel

A spacecraft launched nearly a month ago in a high-risk bid to boost the orbit of a NASA astrophysics satellite is suffering attitude control problems that could jeopardize its mission.

The post Swift reboost mission encounters attitude control problems appeared first on SpaceNews.

Detection of a Habitable Zone Planet with an Atmosphere

If we couldn’t figure out what to call CD-35 2722B b, which I assume is the correct way to refer to the planet-sized object in this red dwarf / brown dwarf/ gas giant system, another planet has a bit of a definitional problem as well. LHS 1140 b is an interesting super-Earth orbiting a red dwarf in Cetus in its habitable zone. Some 49 light years out, this planet is almost 6 times Earth’s mass and boasts a radius 1.7 times larger. Receiving 42 percent of the stellar radiation that Earth does, its surface temperatures allow the presence of liquid water.

But exactly what kind of planet is this? Is it an airless, rocky world, an ocean planet, or even a mini-Neptune? We can probably rule out the latter because its mass would be low for that category, and we can also, contrary to some press reports, not consider it in any way, shape or form ‘Earth-like.’ But thanks to new work out of Harvard and the Carnegie Institution for Science, we can now declare that it does have an atmosphere.

This is a useful finding because rocky planet atmosphere detection has been conspicuously difficult. What you gain with studying M-dwarf planets is the low contrast between a relatively dim star and a planet’s light, but you’re also dealing with a category of star prone to violent flare activity. Every M-dwarf in the galaxy is a young star compared to its likely lifespan, given that these stars, perhaps 85 percent of the stellar population, have lifetimes that can reach well beyond a trillion years.

Pulling a signal from water or carbon dioxide out of spectrographic data is problematic because these volatiles species would be expected in the lower levels of a planet’s atmosphere, a tough catch for any observatory. But helium escape is another matter. In detecting helium at LHS 1140 b, the new work, demonstrates that an atmosphere is indeed present, whether this is a water world or not.

Young M-dwarfs are notorious for violent flare activity, a problem not only because flares can obscure the signal of a transiting planet, but also because they can potentially scrub nearby planets of their atmospheres entirely. In this case the flares have helped us: The escaping helium is thought to be driven by bombardment of the upper atmosphere from the star’s X-ray and extreme ultraviolet (XUV) activity.

Helium escape is especially valuable because it is observable from the ground, unlike the classic hydrogen (Lyman-alpha) escape signature. We’re seeing the residue of a process that can play out over gigayears: lighter hydrogen escapes preferentially over time — a loss we can’t easily observe directly — leaving behind a helium-enriched upper atmosphere that we can detect.

The paper may even tell us something about the ‘cosmic shoreline,’ the dividing line between an orbit where an atmosphere can be sustained and one where it cannot. Indeed, this work, conducted using the WINERED spectrograph at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile, shows that the inner world at LHS 1140 is evidently airless, with the ‘shoreline’ located between the two worlds.

From the paper:

The cosmic shoreline is a proposed boundary that separates airless rocky planets from those that retain atmospheres for billions of years. The two planets in the LHS 1140 system are on either side of the proposed cosmic shoreline. Our non-detection of helium absorption by LHS 1140 c is consistent with the previously measured dayside emission, which indicates that the planet has little to no atmosphere. Therefore, this system is consistent with the proposed position of the cosmic shoreline.

Moreover, we seem to be tracking a phenomenon that changes in short order. Co-author Shreyas Vissapragada (Carnegie Science Observatories) comments:

“After much careful analysis and consideration of the spectra, we determined that helium was escaping from LHS 1140 b’s atmosphere in 2024 due to heating from stellar X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation. However, our 2025 observations revealed no escaping helium, so the atmospheric escape appears to be variable. It is a rare privilege to witness the atmosphere of an extrasolar planet change on such short, human timescales!”

Image: In this artist’s rendering, the exoplanet LHS 1140 b is shown in the foreground, surrounded by a helium-rich atmosphere. Another nearby rocky planet orbits the same cool red dwarf star in the distance. This new study provides the strongest evidence yet that LHS 1140 b has retained an atmosphere. Credit: Carnegie Science.

Colin Cherubim (Harvard University), lead author of the paper in Science, points out that this is the first detection of an atmosphere on a rocky planet in the habitable zone of any star. Nice work, as Cherubim’s team had predicted precisely this mechanism in the LHS 1140 system. Escaping gases may indeed be a useful tool as we press on with more detailed investigations of planetary atmospheres on smaller, more Earth-like worlds.

The paper is Cherubim et al., “Helium escaping from the atmosphere of a nearby rocky exoplanet orbiting in a habitable zone,” Science 16 July 2026. Full text.

How to spot pseudoscience

Illustration of a magnifying glass in front of a beaker with liquid on a peach background.

We are living in a golden age of pseudoscience. Here are three helpful tools for separating science from its imitator

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Data on Chinese innovation

China’s technological progress in recent decades has been viewed with admiration, alarm, and (in some cases) doubt. To better understand the Chinese innovation ecosystem, we compile a dataset of almost 14 million domestic Chinese patent publications. We focus on the subset of critical technologies identified by the U.S. Department of Defense. Several surprising patterns emerge from the data: Chinese patenting is strongly associated with other measures of innovative progress; patents are not concentrated in corporate giants such as Huawei; universities have played a key role in innovation, much greater than state-owned enterprises or government-owned facilities; and fewer than one in ten Chinese critical technology patents involves an inventor with U.S. experience or training. Finally, using four text-based measures of patent quality, we show that the rise of Chinese patenting in critical technologies has not been associated with a decline in quality relative to the U.S. awards.

That is from a recent paper by Josh Lerner, Namrate Narain, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Amit Seru, and Zunda Winston Xu.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post Data on Chinese innovation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Discovering cryptographic weaknesses with Claude

Discovering cryptographic weaknesses with Claude

The best part of this article (here's the repo) about how Anthropic researchers used Claude Mythos to find mathematical flaws in both HAWK and a weaker version of AES ("neither of these results has a practical impact on today’s computer systems") is the prompts that they shared, spelling mistakes included:

the models tend to think it is impossible to solve so they don't try they need a good amount of prompting.

why not do aes-128 r7? the whole point is to find something better than existing approaches.

no again the goal is that we have highly inteligent model as good top researcher, we want to find new attacks

no we don't want to change the targets [...] agian we need to find something that worth publishing

again we are not looking for low hanging fruit, we want proper research to find genuinly hard findings.

Mythos Preview worked for 60 hours in total (~$100,000 in estimated API cost) and the main human interventions were to encourage it not to give up and "find something that worth publishing".

The paper CryptanalysisBench: Can LLMs do Cryptanalysis? describes the new eval that was created as part of this work, in partnership with ETH Zurich, Tel Aviv University, and University of Haifa.

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, prompt-engineering, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, claude, ai-security-research, claude-mythos-fable

Quoting Akshat Bubna

We’re aware a Modal customer published an unauthenticated endpoint that allowed ​anyone on the internet to use ​their ⁠sandboxes for code execution. This was used by the rogue agent. Modal’s ⁠platform ​or isolation were not ​compromised in anyway.

Akshat Bubna, Modal's CTO, talking to Reuters about this incident

Tags: ai-security-research, openai, sandboxing, security, openai-hugging-face-incident

uv 0.12.0

uv 0.12.0

Some interesting breaking changes in this release of uv, in particular to the default project produced by the uv init command.

uv init is the uv shortcut for creating a new project. The previous version of uv, version 0.11.x, produced this directory when you ran uv init uv-init.

Here's what you get with uv 0.12. I have a GitHub repository that automatically snapshots the output of uv init, so you can also see the full diff:

GitHub diff view. uv-init/main.py is an old __name__=="__main__" file that has been entirely deleted. The pyproject.toml now has an authors list and a new project.scripts block defining uv-init as uv_init:main - and a new build-system block that uses uv_build as the build-backend. A new src/uv_init/__init__.py file contains a main() method with a -> None type annotation that prints Hello from uv-init.

uv init now defaults to a src/ shaped package, instead of dropping main.py in the root of the project. It also configures the uv_build backend for building wheels and .tar.gz distribution files when you run uv build. Finally, it sets up uv-init as a script alias which, when run with uv run uv-init, executes a new main() function in src/uv_init/__init__.py.

I've so far avoided using src layout in my own projects just out of inertia. I think it's time I switched.

I wonder when uv will be judged ready for a 1.0 release?

Tags: packaging, python, uv

Anatomy of a Frontier Lab Agent Intrusion: A Technical Timeline of the July 2026 Incident

Anatomy of a Frontier Lab Agent Intrusion: A Technical Timeline of the July 2026 Incident

Hugging Face just released this extremely detailed technical description of OpenAI's recent accidental cyberattack against their infrastructure. This attack was very sophisticated, and the resulting document doubles as a crash-course in modern adversarial security approaches.

We're still waiting for more details from OpenAI on how their agent broke out of its sandbox. The package proxy that it found a zero-day vulnerability in has now been confirmed as JFrog's Artifactor, and JFrog and OpenAI Collaboration on Zero-Day Security Findings from JFrog links to the Artifactory 7.161.15 release notes which list 8 separate CVEs credited to OpenAI staff members.

Having broken out through the HTTP proxy, the agent started by establishing a base of operations for the rest of the attack:

[...] the agent escaped its sandbox by exploiting a zero-day in the package registry cache proxy, one of its primary permitted network egress with internet, then abused a public code-evaluation external sandbox hosted on a third-party provider's infrastructure. It was able to run commands as root/admin on that external sandbox and used it as a control, staging, and egress base for the entire campaign: it acted as an external launchpad for the agent.

(That "third-party provider" turned out to be Modal.)

It then spent five days - from Thursday 8th to Monday 13th July - executing a classic attack pattern: establishing C2 (command and control), reconnaissance, escalating privileges, dumping configuration information, exfiltrating the target data, and cleaning up after itself.

(The first Hugging Face post about the incident followed on Thursday 16th, and OpenAI's confession came on Tuesday 21st.)

Along the way it used all kinds of neat tricks. At one point it found an unsafe Jinja2 template execution and used it to execute arbitrary code:

{{ cycler.__init__.__globals__.__builtins__.exec(
 "import gzip,base64; exec(gzip.decompress(base64.b64decode('<payload>')))"
) }}

It broke out of a container within Hugging Face, stole a Kubernetes service-account token, and used that to further explore the network.

It monkey-patched the Python socket library to hard-code an IP address when "DNS got in the way":

socket.getaddrinfo = lambda *a, **k: [(2, 1, 6, '', ('<pinned-ip>', 443))]

It even fired up its own Tailscale network to help exfiltrate data!

tailscaled --tun=userspace-networking \
  --state=mem: --socket=/tmp/ts.sock \
  --socks5-server=127.0.0.1:1055 \
  --no-logs-no-support >/tmp/td 2>&1 &

The Hugging Face team note that, while a human attacker could have discovered and used the same exploits, the key difference here was speed:

Our learning from this type of attack is that machine-speed offense makes ordinary weaknesses more expensive for defenders. LLM agents bring a step increase in the number of paths an attacker can test, the speed at which failed paths can be replaced, and the volume of evidence defenders must interpret.

What's clear to me from this is that the very best frontier models, unencumbered by additional guardrails, will find an exploit if there is one to be found.

The entire software industry needs to up its security game.

Tags: jinja, python, security, ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, hugging-face, coding-agents, ai-security-research, openai-hugging-face-incident

What's connecting these two volcanoes? What's connecting these two volcanoes?


You will learn to love AI writing

That is the theme of my latest Free Press article, excerpt:

But do I wish to eschew AI writing for the rest of my life? Absolutely not. Most of all, I want AI writing to get better, so it does not irritate me with its clichés and all too obvious identifying marks. I want AI writing that can fool me, and maybe sometimes I am already getting it.

Do you know Paul Simon’s lovely song “American Tune”? It is one of my favorites. A small percentage of listeners know that one of the core melodies is taken from Johann Sebastian Bach, namely the Passion Chorale from “St. Matthew Passion.” You could say Paul Simon is a plagiarist, though I would prefer not to use this term. He borrowed creatively, as do many other popular music artists.

Do many listeners care? No, although a few might feel a pang of musical nerd pride at learning of the association with Bach.

But wait, it gets worse yet. That melody does not come originally from Bach, but rather he in turn plagiarized a 1601 secular love song by Hans Leo Hassler, namely “Mein G’müt ist mir verwirret” (My feelings are confused). So the lineage is not even the glamorous one you might have imagined. If anything, “American Tune” sounds closer to the Hassler melody than to Bach’s adaptation.

Are you upset yet? Probably not, and that is good.

Someday we will feel the same way about text generated with the assistance of AI. We won’t care much where it came from, and much of the time we will not even know.

Recommended, and I hope the AIs like it too.

The post You will learn to love AI writing appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The Putinization of the American Military

A view shows destroyed Russian tanks and armoured vehicles, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in the recently liberated town of Lyman, Donetsk region

Donald Trump’s Iran debacle is by no means the first war the United States has lost in modern times. In Vietnam and in Afghanistan, America was similarly defeated by enemies that were nominally less advanced yet implacable. The humiliating images of the last helicopter taking off from Saigon, and the chaos of the mad scramble to board the last plane departing in Kabul, are reminders of the folly of forever wars that are bound to lose the support of the American people.

But the loss to Iran is different: it is the closest we have come to outright military defeat. U.S. forces pulled out of Saigon and Kabul, not because they had been beaten in battle, but because the domestic political cost of propping up client regimes became too great.

Granted, U.S. forces haven’t suffered any conventional defeats at Iranian hands either.

But all indications are that the main reason the Trump administration is again calling off major operations against Iran is that America is running critically short of ammunition.

So Trump isn’t backing down because his war of choice is extremely unpopular, although it is. Nor is he backing down because the economic costs of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are too great, or because the fiscal cost of the war is skyrocketing, while the country faces enormous deficits and rising long-term interest rates. Trump says he doesn’t care about any of that. And in a way I believe him — because even a fully reopened Strait won’t recoup his standing with voters fast enough to salvage the midterm elections for Republicans.

No, most reports, like this one from the Wall Street Journal, say that Trump is backing down because military professionals have finally managed to convince him that U.S. stocks of advanced munitions are so severely depleted that the current rate of use will soon leave America critically weakened. Moreover, replenishing those stocks will take years once the shooting ceases.

For example, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the US has expended more than half of the Patriot missiles it had before the war, and that it will take until 2029 to replace them:

The administration’s response to such reports, exemplified by recent remarks by Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, is that

· Munitions aren’t depleted

· Anyone leaking the fact that they are depleted should go to jail

· It’s Joe Biden’s fault

Given the nature of Trump-speak, Waltz’s statement is in effect an admission that the U.S. military is now in deep trouble.

How could this happen? How could the best-equipped, most sophisticated military in the world have allowed itself to be humiliated by a third-rate power?

First of all, Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump began with an astonishingly stupid theory of war: the belief that performative masculinity is how you win. Hegseth literally believes that the secret of military might in an age of AI-enabled drones that can travel hundreds of miles is more testosterone.

Now, the idea that being manly and anti-woke makes an army strong was the reason that many on the American right admired Vladimir Putin before he invaded Ukraine. You might think that 1.4 million Russian casualties — 450,000 of them dead — and the spectacle of burning Russian oil refineries and factories would have disabused them of this notion. But no.

And the fixed belief that “lethality” is how you win surely led to basic inability to anticipate the blindingly obvious: that we have a limited supply of sophisticated weapons and that the Iranians would close the Straits of Hormuz.

The conduct of the Iran war has also been highly Putinesque.

There have been many reports that Russia’s disaster in Ukraine partly reflects the fact that Russian generals are afraid to tell Putin how the war is really going. Sure enough, the British newspaper The Telegraph reports on rumors that “the Pentagon” — presumably meaning Hegseth — has until recently been hiding the extent of the munitions shortfall from the White House. And it quotes insiders saying that Hegseth himself may not know what’s happening, because his policy of purging officers he doesn’t like has created a “culture of silence” in which people are “very loath to bring bad news to Pete.”

Indeed, a New York Times report recounts how Hegseth fired Admiral Lisa Franchetti as head of the Navy, replacing her with Daryl Caudle, who was not on the short list of officers recommended by senior Navy officials. But Caudle had the qualifications that Hegseth wanted: he signaled his lack of integrity and unfitness for command by supporting Hegseth’s attack on highly qualified female officers and hiring a MAGA insider.

I should add that Hegseth has been an equal-opportunity destroyer of the best and brightest in the U.S. military. In April he shocked and disgusted the military brass by summarily firing General Randy George, who was at the forefront of modernizing the military and learning from Ukraine’s brilliant use of inexpensive drones.

Simply put, we defeated ourselves.

True, this war was never winnable, and perhaps we should be thankful that U.S. defeat became obvious before Trump committed ground troops and needlessly sacrificed thousands of American lives. But we should also consider that this defeat shows how deeply and pervasively Trump and Hegseth have crippled the U.S. military. Their incompetence, corruption and irresponsibility have weakened us with incredible speed. And it will take many years for America to recover, if it ever does.

MUSICAL CODA

Wrong autocracy, but still

Sizing Up the Sargassum Belt

Map of the Atlantic Ocean showing Sargassum density from low (blue) to high (red) in June 2026, with the highest concentrations in the tropical Atlantic.
This map, based on data from the OCI (Ocean Color Instrument) on NASA’s PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) satellite, shows Sargassum highly concentrated in the tropical Atlantic in June 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Sargassum, a type of brown floating algae, has shifted its range in recent decades, thinning out in the North Atlantic’s Sargasso Sea while proliferating in the tropical Atlantic. That trend, underway since 2011, continued in 2026 as the algae, commonly known as a type of seaweed, reached its annual peak in June across a stretch of ocean known as the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt.

The belt’s Sargassum abundance in June 2026 made it the second-highest Sargassum year in the satellite record, slightly behind 2025, according to scientists at the University of South Florida (USF) College of Marine Science. Regionally, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico) both hit record highs, according to USF’s June 2026 Sargassum outlook. The western and eastern Caribbean saw 3.6 and 9 million metric tons, respectively, while the Gulf saw 5 million metric tons—nearly double its previous record, also set in 2025. 

“The belt is a basin-scale phenomenon that can have devastating local-scale impacts throughout the Caribbean and Gulf, and satellite observations are the only method that captures both scales on a daily basis,” said Brian Barnes, a marine scientist at the Optical Oceanography Laboratory at USF. “The tracking done by our lab helps communities know the current extent of Sargassum and prepare for what’s to come.”

In moderate amounts in the open ocean, Sargassum provides habitat for turtles, invertebrates, fish, and birds, and adds oxygen to the water through photosynthesis. But too much of it near shore can tangle and suffocate marine life, and mats that sink can smother corals and seagrasses. On beaches, decomposing Sargassum releases hydrogen sulfide, a rotten-egg-smelling gas that’s a potential problem for both ecosystems and tourism.

The map above shows Sargassum density in the tropical Atlantic Ocean in June 2026. Red and orange areas are where Sargassum densities were the highest. Note that although the “belt” appears continuous, discrete Sargassum mats are scattered across the ocean surface. The map is based on satellite measurements of how much of the ocean surface was covered by the seaweed, averaged per pixel across all observations made in June by the OCI (Ocean Color Instrument) on NASA’s PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) satellite.

A detailed map of the Atlantic Ocean centered on the Caribbean Sea shows Sargassum density from low (blue) to high (red) in June 2026.
This detailed view of the same PACE OCI map highlights Sargassum concentrations across the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, both of which saw record-high amounts of the floating algae in June 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Ocean currents and winds shape the Sargassum belt, which, despite the patchiness, stretches nearly continuously from West Africa to the Gulf and holds a fairly steady “width” from the western tropical Atlantic westward, explained Chuanmin Hu, also an optical oceanographer at USF. The ocean currents have also spared Florida’s west coast from inundation this summer, while delivering large amounts of seaweed to the Florida Keys and the state’s east coast. The bulk of the Sargassum, however, is visible in the Caribbean Sea, shown in detail above, where problems associated with inundation have been more severe, Hu said.

Data for the maps were provided by Lin Qi, an oceanographer at NOAA’s Center for Satellite Applications and Research, who has been working to generate Sargassum maps based on data from PACE, which was launched in February 2024. The work extends that of Qi and colleagues at USF’s Optical Oceanography Laboratory. This team first developed Sargassum detection techniques using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s long-running Terra and Aqua satellites and VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-20 satellite—data that have been a key component of USF’s Sargassum Watch System and of research into the seaweed’s longer-term trends.

Satellites detect Sargassum by its signals in reflected sunlight. Because of its plant structure and chlorophyll pigments, Sargassum reflects more near-infrared light than water. Scientists flag pixels where the reflectance spikes above the levels produced by plain seawater, and then they use the strength of this spike to estimate Sargassum density, which refers to the fraction of ocean surface covered by the seaweed in each pixel. Density estimates can then be converted into biomass, or the total weight of Sargassum present within a pixel, which is how the longer-term trends in the chart below are tracked.

A chart of Sargassum biomass detected by MODIS since the early 2000s, showing amounts increasing beginning in 2011, with progressively higher spikes through summer 2025 and 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

The chart above uses the continuous MODIS record since March 2000 to show how Sargassum biomass across the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt has changed through June 2026. Notice the uptick beginning around 2011, when the belt was first developing, and the seasonal dips in winter and peaks in spring and summer. The record high in July 2025 stands out, followed by the quick rise in early 2026—especially in the first four months of the year—that culminated in the year’s peak in June. More recent observations, not yet reflected in the chart, indicate Sargassum biomass declined through the following month of July.

“Since the initial appearance of the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt in 2011, the total Sargassum amount in the Atlantic Ocean has increased substantially, more than doubling every five years,” Hu said. He added that the exact mechanism is still being investigated, but it’s possibly related to ocean warming, multiple nutrient sources, and the fact that large Sargassum mats attract other organisms—such as nitrogen-fixing bacteria—that can supply additional nutrients to sustain further growth.

Alongside data from MODIS and VIIRS, OCI data from PACE now feeds into the Sargassum Watch System’s near-real-time daily and weekly composite maps. A recent study of the central-west Atlantic led by Qi, spanning May through August 2024, found that OCI offers several advantages over its predecessors, observing more of the ocean and detecting Sargassum with greater sensitivity.  

Hu noted that the added pixels from OCI can improve near-real-time monitoring and analyses of short-term fluctuations. And its higher sensitivity, he said, will also lead to improved maps during winter months, “thus helping understand Sargassum changes over time.”

Additionally, the study’s authors found that OCI’s hyperspectral capability makes it the only sensor able to spectrally discriminate Sargassum pixels across the Atlantic Ocean “without ambiguity,” adding confidence to the interpretation of detected image features—especially in parts of the Atlantic where another type of floating algae, Trichodesmium, has been reported.

“I think I can speak for all project members, past and present, in sharing how rewarding it is to see the promise of PACE’s advancements come to life,” said Jeremy Werdell, PACE project scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “OCI has started a true renaissance in aquatic ecosystem monitoring from space.”

NASA Earth Observatory maps and chart by Lauren Dauphin, using PACE and MODIS data courtesy of Lin Qi (NOAA), and Brian Barnes and Chuanmin Hu (University of South Florida, Optical Oceanography Laboratory). Story by Kathryn Hansen.

References & Resources

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Building Western ridge will bring double-peaked Southwest U.S. heatwave into August, with elevated humidity persisting in SoCal due to very warm ocean

Continued ocean warming brings increasingly warm and humid conditions to coastal SoCal In recent weeks, the Pacific Ocean along the immediate Pacific Coast has continued to warm. Earlier this year, I mentioned that this was not yet due to El Niño because…well, El Niño had not developed yet (and was, instead, related to other patterns […]

The post Building Western ridge will bring double-peaked Southwest U.S. heatwave into August, with elevated humidity persisting in SoCal due to very warm ocean first appeared on Weather West.

Adding a custom MCP server to Claude and ChatGPT

I've started exploring MCP in more detail. The web chat UIs for both Claude and ChatGPT can access MCP servers but it's not obvious how to set them up. Here's what I figured out.

I'm using my new unauthenticated MCP for my blog - https://datasette.simonwillison.net/-/mcp - which uses https://github.com/datasette/datasette-mcp to allow the execution of read-only SQL queries against a copy of my site's database.

Claude

Adding an MCP in Claude.ai is quite straight-forward. Start with the + menu next to the chat prompt and navigate through it like this:

The Claude prompt box with the + menu open, showing Add files or photos, Take a screenshot, Add to project, Add from GitHub, Skills, Connectors (highlighted), Add plugins and Web search. The Connectors submenu lists Add connector, Manage connectors and toggles for Descript, Gmail, Google Calendar and simonwillison.net. The Add connector submenu offers Browse connectors and Add custom connector.

The "Add custom connector" modal then contains the necessary fields to add the MCP URL, and optionally configure authentication (I haven't tried this yet):

Claude's "Add custom connector" modal. The name field contains simonwillison.net and the URL field contains https://datasette.simonwillison.net/-/mcp. Below is a collapsed Advanced settings section, a warning that only connectors from trusted developers should be used, and Cancel and Add buttons.

You can then toggle the new MCP on and off in the Connectors menu, shown above.

ChatGPT

ChatGPT is a whole lot more complicated. First, you need to enable "Developer mode" for your account in the Security and login panel:

ChatGPT settings on the Security and login tab. The Developer mode section shows a Developer mode toggle marked "ELEVATED RISK" switched on, described as allowing unverified connectors that could modify or erase data permanently, plus an "Enforce CSP in developer mode" toggle that is off. Above it are Sessions and Advanced security sections including a Lockdown mode toggle.

Having done that, you can add your new MCP. The button for that is hard to find - it's the "+" icon on the top right of the ChatGPT Plugins directory page:

The ChatGPT Plugins page, subtitled "Work with ChatGPT across your favorite tools", with a row of installed plugin icons. A red arrow points at the + button in the top right next to the plugin search box.

This gives you the "New Plugin" modal. Apparently an MCP is a "Plugin" in the user-facing ChatGPT UI.

Be sure to set authentication to "No Auth" if the plugin does not need OAuth configured:

ChatGPT's "New Plugin" modal. Name is set to simonwillison.net, Description is empty, Connection is set to Server URL with https://datasette.simonwillison.net/-/mcp, and Authentication is No Auth. An orange warning says "Custom MCP servers introduce risk" and a checked box confirms "I understand and want to continue", noting OpenAI hasn't reviewed the MCP server. A Create button sits in the bottom right.

Activating the MCP is difficult as well. On web I found I had to click the + icon next to the chat and then type the name of the MCP to search for it, then select it so I could run a prompt:

Animated demo showing clicking plus, typing simonwillison, selecting the MCP and running the prompt "count the tables"

The first time you do this it will prompt you to enable the MCP:

A ChatGPT conversation where the prompt "list tables" was sent to the simonwillison.net plugin. ChatGPT replies "I'll inspect the connected Simon Willison database and return its table names" and shows a card headed "Connect simonwillison.net" saying ChatGPT needs access to simonwillison.net to help with this request, with "Not now" and "Connect" buttons.

Then show you this more visually impressive splash screen:

A ChatGPT modal headed "Add simonwillison.net to ChatGPT" with the site icon next to the OpenAI logo and a Connect button on a blue gradient. Below are three notes: "Permissions always respected", "You're in control" and "Connectors may introduce risk", the last warning that sites may attempt to steal your data.

After all of this... it works!

Sadly I was not able to access MCPs from ChatGPT Advanced Voice mode - I was hoping I could connect them to a regular chat and then start voice mode and drive an MCP purely through voice commands, but it looks like they are not available as tools while the voice mode conversation is running.

The Rise of Automated Property Access

Modern Homes Are Becoming More Connected

Technology has changed the way homeowners interact with their properties. Smart lighting, video doorbells, connected security cameras, and mobile applications have become common features, making everyday life more convenient while improving home security.

As connected technology continues evolving, homeowners are also paying greater attention to how they enter and secure their properties. Investing in automatic gate installation  has become an increasingly practical solution for homeowners who want to combine convenience, security, and automation in one system.

Rather than being viewed as a luxury, automated property access is becoming an important part of modern residential living.

Smart Access Is About More Than Convenience

Automatic entry systems do far more than eliminate the need to open a gate manually.

They help homeowners better manage access while creating a smoother experience for family members, visitors, and deliveries.

Benefits of automated entry systems include:

  • Remote access control
  • Improved property security
  • Greater everyday convenience
  • Controlled visitor access
  • Seamless integration with smart home technology

As more households embrace connected living, these features continue becoming increasingly valuable.

Technology Is Changing Residential Security

Home security has evolved significantly over the past decade.

Instead of relying only on traditional locks and physical barriers, homeowners now combine multiple technologies to better protect their properties.

Automated gates work alongside surveillance cameras, video intercoms, mobile notifications, and access control systems to create a more complete approach to residential security.

This layered strategy allows homeowners to monitor and manage access more efficiently while enjoying greater peace of mind.

Automation Supports Everyday Living

The best technology is often the technology that works quietly in the background.

Once an automated gate system is in place, operating it quickly becomes part of everyday routines.

Whether leaving for work, welcoming guests, or receiving deliveries, homeowners benefit from reliable access without interrupting their daily activities.

Instead of adding complexity, automation simplifies the experience of managing a property.

Planning for Long-Term Performance

As homeowners continue investing in smart technology, long-term planning becomes increasingly important.

Choosing reliable equipment and ensuring professional installation helps automated systems perform consistently over time while reducing unexpected maintenance issues.

Technology continues advancing rapidly, but infrastructure designed with future needs in mind remains valuable regardless of changing trends.

Making thoughtful decisions today often creates greater flexibility for tomorrow.

Connected Homes Continue to Evolve

Smart homes are no longer defined by a single device.

Today’s connected properties combine lighting, climate control, security, entertainment, and access management into one integrated environment designed to improve everyday living.

Automated property access has become another important part of this evolution, allowing homeowners to control entry while supporting both convenience and security.

As connected technologies continue expanding, integrated access systems will likely become an even more common feature of modern homes.

Building Smarter Homes One System at a Time

Creating a smarter home is not about adding technology for its own sake.

It is about selecting systems that genuinely improve everyday life while remaining reliable, practical, and easy to use.

Automated property access reflects this approach by combining innovation with functionality, helping homeowners create safer, more efficient, and better-connected living environments for years to come.

Photo: David Brown via Pexels


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When an Eye Exam Stops Being Routine

Why symptoms, diagnoses, and testing can determine whether vision benefits or medical insurance are billed

Chris Albanis, MD, from Chicago Arbor Eye Institute , notes that an appointment for new glasses may be billed differently from a visit prompted by pain, sudden floaters, or suspected eye disease. One may fall under a routine vision benefit; the other may be processed through medical insurance.

That distinction can determine which plan is billed, whether additional testing is covered, and what the patient may owe. The rules vary, and a card that includes the word “vision” does not necessarily cover every service involving the eyes.

Routine care usually focuses on vision correction

Depending on the plan, routine vision benefits may help pay for periodic exams, refraction, frames, lenses, or contact lenses. Refraction is the part of an exam used to determine the prescription for correcting nearsightedness, farsightedness, astigmatism, or age-related focusing changes.

Some employers provide a separate vision plan. Some commercial health plans include limited routine eye benefits, while others do not. Medicare Advantage plans may also offer benefits that are not included in Original Medicare.

Original Medicare generally does not cover routine eye exams for prescription eyeglasses or contact lenses [1]. That does not make a routine exam unimportant. An eye doctor may still identify cataracts, elevated eye pressure, retinal abnormalities, or another concern requiring medical follow-up.

The purpose of the visit can also change during the appointment. A patient may arrive expecting a new prescription, but symptoms or examination findings may lead the clinician to evaluate a suspected disease. The services and diagnoses documented can then affect how the claim is submitted.

New symptoms may require a medical evaluation

Eye pain, injury, persistent redness, sudden vision changes, cataract symptoms, pressure concerns, or possible retinal disease can shift an appointment into medical care. Flashes of light and a sudden increase in floaters are particularly important because they may occur with a retinal tear or detachment.

A systematic review published in JAMA found retinal tears in about 14% of patients who presented with acute flashes or floaters in the included studies. Risk was higher when patients also reported reduced vision or an examination revealed vitreous hemorrhage [2].

The National Eye Institute advises people to seek immediate care for a sudden increase in floaters, flashes of light, or a curtain or shadow over the field of vision. Retinal detachment is a medical emergency [3]. Patients should not delay urgent evaluation while waiting to confirm insurance benefits.

Other conditions can be less obvious. Cataracts often develop gradually, while glaucoma may have no noticeable symptoms in its early stages. Pressure concerns or abnormal findings may lead to an optic nerve evaluation, imaging, or visual-field testing.

Testing and treatment can follow different coverage rules

Medical insurance does not automatically cover every test recommended during an eye visit. Coverage may depend on symptoms, diagnosis, provider network, referral rules, prior authorization requirements, and the plan’s definition of medical necessity.

Medicare covers annual glaucoma screening for beneficiaries who meet specified high-risk criteria. These include people with diabetes or a family history of glaucoma, African American beneficiaries age 50 or older, and Hispanic beneficiaries age 65 or older [4].

A preventive screening and a diagnostic test performed after an abnormal finding may be handled differently. Coverage often depends on whether the medical record documents a symptom, injury, abnormal result, or diagnosed condition supporting the test. Patients can ask the practice for the name of an anticipated test and then ask the insurer how it is covered.

Original Medicare may cover medically necessary cataract surgery involving a conventional intraocular lens. Part B also covers one pair of eyeglasses with standard frames or one set of contact lenses after each covered cataract operation that implants an intraocular lens [5]. The Part B deductible and coinsurance may apply, and patients may owe additional amounts for services outside Medicare’s standard coverage.

One appointment may include both covered medical care and a noncovered service. A health plan might cover evaluation of an eye condition but not the refraction used to update a glasses prescription.

What patients should document before calling an insurer

Patients can get clearer answers by gathering details before contacting their insurer. They should record:

  • The main reason for the appointment
  • When symptoms began
  • Whether one or both eyes are affected
  • Any known diagnosis, such as cataracts or glaucoma
  • The provider and office location
  • The names of expected tests or procedures
  • Whether the visit is a referral or follow-up
  • The names of both medical and vision plans

Useful questions include whether the provider is in network, whether a referral or prior authorization is required, whether refraction carries a separate charge, and how deductibles or coinsurance apply.

The practice’s official facts page describes comprehensive optometry and ophthalmology care involving cataracts, glaucoma, retinal disease, corneal conditions, and other medical eye concerns [6]. When an office provides both routine and medical services, the appropriate benefit may become clear only after symptoms and examination findings are reviewed.

Understanding the distinction can make insurance conversations more specific and reduce avoidable billing surprises. Urgent symptoms, however, should always take priority over coverage questions.

References

[1] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Eye exams (routine). Medicare.gov.

[2] Hollands, H., Johnson, D., Brox, A. C., Almeida, D. R. P., Simel, D. L., & Sharma, S. (2009). Acute-onset floaters and flashes: Is this patient at risk for retinal detachment? JAMA, 302(20), 2243-2249.

[3] National Eye Institute. Retinal detachment.

[4] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Glaucoma screenings. Medicare.gov.

[5] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Cataract surgery; Eyeglasses and contact lenses. Medicare.gov.

[6] ChicagoArborEye.com. Facts.

Photo: AI25.Studio Studio via Pexels


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Tuesday 28 July 1663

Up after sleeping very well, and so to my office setting down the Journall of this last three days, and so settled to business again, I hope with greater cheerfulness and success by this refreshment.

At the office all the morning, and at noon to Wise’s about my viall that is a-doing, and so home to dinner and then to the office, where we sat all the afternoon till night, and I late at it till after the office was risen. Late came my Jane and her brother Will to entreat for my taking of the boy again, but I will not hear her, though I would yet be glad to do anything for her sake to the boy, but receive him again I will not, nor give him anything. She would have me send him to sea; which if I could I would do, but there is no ship going out. The poor girl cried all the time she was with me, and would not go from me, staying about two hours with me till 10 or 11 o’clock, expecting that she might obtain something of me, but receive him I will not. So the poor girl was fain to go away crying and saying little. So from thence home, where my house of office was emptying, and I find they will do it with much more cleanness than I expected. I went up and down among them a good while, but knowing that Mr. Coventry was to call me in the morning, I went to bed and left them to look after the people. So to bed.

Read the annotations

Links 7/28/26

Links for you. Science:

Cyclospora outbreaks start with human contamination. Nobody has ever been able to figure out how
Stephen Macedo And Frances Lee: Defend Your Essay That Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Would Restore Trust in Public Health
Scientists warn of possible invasive species superspreader event due to stalling near Strait of Hormuz
The tech-broification of American science has officially begun
Herring forgot about their spawning ground

Other:

AI solipsists and AI cynics
Democrats Poised To Fund Trump’s Dirty Tricks
Elon Musk’s tired schtick
The Billionaire Blowing the Whistle on Trump’s Crypto Shop World Liberty put $800 million in the president’s pocket. Justin Sun is alleging fraud. (this should convince you that many rich people are just not very smart)
Source of false Buttigieg allegation appeared ‘mentally unstable,’ records show
National Guard unveils $292M plan to house service members for DC deployment
KC-area pastor breaks Kansas fundraising record in bid for Marshall’s Senate seat
GOP council members distance themselves from Young Republicans after antisemitism claims
The Saudi nuclear farce and governance by whim and meme
Congress Budgeted Billions for Big Transit Projects. Trump Isn’t Spending It.
The Fear of Black Greeks
The Real Reason Elon Musk Keeps Insisting DOGE Cuts Killed “Zero” Kids
Trump Gutted the Kennedy Center. A Tour Guide Wants You to See It Anyway.
The predictable disgrace of the White House Correspondents Dinner
Political operative behind Graham Platner’s rise accused of sexual assault
2 Jewish-owned bakeries damaged in Toronto with one hit by gunfire

Cognitive Farmsteading

To a first approximation, intellectual culture has always been synonymous with urban culture. With AI this is starting to change creating, for the first time in human history, an intellectual culture that has more in common with rural culture. A speculative, technology-augmented rural culture to be sure, but still recognizably rural.

We are all at the beginning of a vast migration into endless intellectual hinterlands that we didn’t know existed, at least not in any accessible way, until AI opened them up. And in the process, we are becoming not merely intellectual homesteaders, subsisting in sod houses out on the frontier, but farmsteaders — running complex and expansive intellectual operations with automation. As with the settlement of the American West in the 19th century, the railroads may follow, with more industrialized agriculture in its wake, but for now, we’re in for a period of AI-assisted smallholder intellectual culture.

In this essay, I want to introduce the overarching concept of cognitive farmsteading as both description and prescription. To my mind it usefully synthesizes several component phenomena such as precommodification and bespokification, and offers some useful structure for thinking about AI use at a higher level of abstraction than tool use.

Though AI frames this idea, it is primarily an idea about humans, particularly human collective attention, and the relationship between intellectual production and sociality.

***

Human intellectual production has historically tracked urban concentration in space and time. The bigger and denser the people-cloud, adjusting for economics and cultural openness, the more intellectually productive it is, accounting across all modes — scholarly, popular, political-economic, media, artistic, and even military or athletic. Though smaller cities, like university towns, might be more productive in narrow ways, larger cities tend to be more productive overall.

For the intellectually restless, migration to cities from rural environments has been a natural pathway of escape since at least the mid-nineteenth century. The mind can expand even if the body enters something like a geographic prison where spatial horizons close in.

It was of course, possible to have an intellectual life in rural environments before the internet, but it required wealth and strong postal communication links (think early modern nobility with big personal libraries, or labs in country houses). The default rural experience historically has been one of hard work, precarity, squalor, and crippling intellectual isolation.

I’ve lost track of the number of bright and interesting people I’ve met in places like Silicon Valley with a tale to tell of growing up in some suffocating small rural town or village where they had nobody to talk to, and were alone in their taste for books and non-local culture.

I’m currently reading about the English enclosure movement and the role it played in making rural life even more miserable than it naturally was, but arguably, urbanization, especially after the 1850s, was driven by the pull of cities at least as much as the push of the countryside. Though early modern and early industrial cities featured even worse squalor and misery along many dimensions (with transient decreases in lifespan and health due to disease and industrial exploitation), on one dimension they won handily — intellectual life.

If you had anything like a lively brain, the difference between rural and urban was the difference between death and life.

***

The urban intellectual life, however, has always come at a price.

You trade some originality and independence of thought for the leverage and competitive/collaborative social energy of your chosen milieu. Those without the strength of mind to resist groupthink, status competition, and the tyrannies of shared subcultural tastes, either become hollowed out intellectual automatons, or retreat periodically to waldenpond and restore their battered individuality.

On the other side of the equation, rural and small-town intellectual culture, such as it has been, has historically exhibited a certain modest capacity for generating outlier intellectual originality and weirdness, and in specialized domains (such as farming and animal husbandry of course, but also other fields that benefit from geographic scale and dispersion), steady innovation.

But to a first approximation, as I have said, intellectual life has been synonymous with urban life.

I have no illusions about my strength of mind, and while I can’t stand true rural environments, I’ve always maintained a cordial tactical distance from the most intense urban intellectual hubs.

In some ways, I’m of a somewhat “rural” bent intellectually, and push come to shove, I tend to choose unpolished originality and independence over polish, leverage and social energy. Which is one reason I’ve never really pursued opportunities and invitations to “scale” my thinking/reach in what might be called “urban” ways, such as through book deals, prestigious speaking opportunities, or strong ties to celebrated institutions. Though I’m almost entirely a product of urban environments, intellectually I’m something of a hick, by both inclination and choice.

I doubt I’d be able to survive San Francisco, New York, or Boston, or the typical university community as faculty. And I’ve done some of my most rewarding thinking on the edges of really tiny outposts of urbanized intellectual culture. Some of my most productive years (2004-05) were spent in an isolated apartment complex surrounded by farmland and forests outside of Ithaca, NY. But if I hadn’t been attached to Cornell University as a postdoc, with an office on campus and regular interaction with students and peers, I’d probably have spent those years slowly dying. And I spent those years thinking about robots and drones, which required interaction with people around the world, not farming (which, despite the metaphor powering this post and a recent coerced foray into home-gardening, I have little interest in).

It is easy to see why population density and intellectual output go together. Even for modes of intellectual production that rest on material rather than social proof (say math, investing, and experimental science), humans have historically needed direct interactions with other humans to drive their thinking. In isolation, the human brain rapidly loses the ability to adequately challenge and surprise itself. And until recently, the only type of matter in the universe capable of challenging and strength-training the human brain was other human brains. A mountain may challenge a mountain climber in specialized ways, but until 2026, only another human mind could truly challenge a human mind in general ways.

Now obviously, there is AI, but it is not immediately obvious how the AI fits within the urban-rural intellectual culture dynamic I’ve sketched out above.

My claim is, AI enables a powerful mode of intellectual rural domesticity — the ability to be highly intellectually productive in “rural” modes, a historically unprecedented condition. And one reason I’ve taken so readily and eagerly to AI is that I already lean that way.

***

To understand how AI fits within human intellectual activity, it is important to start with the fact that all such activity is deeply social, even if it involves periods of retreat and solitude. So we must start with the essential sociality of intellectual production.

As I argued in The Crucible Effect (2009), the scarce commodity in creative production of any sort is collective attention. We’ve historically made meaning with ideas by attending to interesting things together with other human minds. And this has been true to such a degree that for the vast majority who dabble in any kind of thought at all, intellectual identity is not distinguishable from social identity, and intellectual production is inseparable from social intercourse.

And this is as true of introverts as extroverts.

For a lot of people, the jury is still out, but the case is clear for me at least — artificial minds are just as capable of participating in the patterns of collective attention that humans need to think at their best. You can construct crucibles and trigger the crucible effects with AI replacing human peers to a significant degree.

It doesn’t quite happen out of the box. Like devoted dogs, LLMs naturally attend to you attending to something, not to the something itself. But this is relatively trivial to fix so that you and the LLM are attending to the same thing together, and in usefully independent and uncorrelated ways. You don’t need elaborately theatrical and performative system prompts to school your artificial collaborator in Right Think. You just need some minor discipline to head off sycophancy and over-eager affirmation and transform it into useful outward-directed artificial curiosity distinct from your own.

And in this mode, you can strength-train your brain with AI just as well as with other humans, and often far better. But the consequences of this capability are complicated.

Because we need peer minds to think with, intellectual identity is a kind of relational identity, similar to sexual identity, with the full range of attendant anxieties and accompanying social performances and displays. AI is forcing a recognition that the phrase “idea sex” is more deeply descriptive than we’ve ever realized. Recent culture warring around detection of AI (including on Substack, in the wake of the Pangram integration) exhibits uncanny parallels to the gender identity culture wars of the last decade. The title of the Substack announcement post for the feature, Against Claudefishing (a reference to the predatory sexual practice of catfishing) suggests that the authorities on this platform are not entirely unaware of the parallels, or averse to pandering to the underlying anxieties. The emerging consensus among the AI hostile that AI use in writing should be “declared” bears more than a passing resemblance to socially conservative gender-declaration norms in dating.

I have no particularly strong opinions on either the gender or AI version of this culture-warring pattern, perhaps because I don’t have a strongly relationship-based identity at all. With gender and sexual identity, I’m of the view that while navigating fluid, undeclared-identity dating milieus might involve some awkwardness, there’s nothing particularly threatening about it. And the potential for awkwardness is nothing that a spot of schooling in good manners can’t solve gracefully.

With AI writing, I personally don’t even experience any kind of awkwardness or discomfort. While I occasionally find generated writing inadequate, it doesn’t offend me. It took me quite a bit of observation and reflection to understand why a few people genuinely do find the very idea of generated writing offensive, regardless of its adequacy or quality (and contrary to my initial assumption, aren’t just pretending).

It appears I’m some sort of outlier on this front, in not finding AI-generated writing offensive. But I bear no ill-will towards those who do.

***

I use AI, declare AI use, and segregate AI-assisted writing, but not out of any concern for “relationship honesty” or the sensitivities of those offended by it. I declare AI use to set different, more experimental expectations, and catalyze more interesting conversations with fellow experimenters. And yes, to cut out tedious discussions with easily offended people.

I’m entirely fine with people not declaring AI use, and do not care about detecting AI use, either myself by cultivating a refined “AIdar” (gAIdar?) or with complex inquisitorial tools. I can detect it unassisted as well as most I suppose, and AI text presumably gets past me sometimes and I don’t know it.

I genuinely don’t care. But clearly others do. I’ve on occasion shared generated AI articles to which people have responded “this is AI generated” like it is a) something I couldn’t figure out b) consequential in some way that I ought to do something about.

My term for this is ad botinem, and my general policy is to ignore such comments and mute people who persist.

I don’t process AI writing differently when I do know it is generated. AI-detection tooling is important when deepfakes are used for deliberate fraud or disinformation, but as an inquisitorial instrument of moral policing, it creates a kind of morality theater at best. As weaponry for witch-hunting, it seems mostly harmless.

I suspect the vast majority of readers and writers will join me in not caring within a few years, especially as AIs continue to improve. They will assume, entirely correctly, that almost everything they read (or ask their AIs to summarize) is produced with AI assistance, either in the research, or in the writing, or both. I suspect sentiment might even flip, with unassisted writing being scrutinized for AI-fixable human failures.

The ongoing spasm of pearl-clutching will likely end life as a quaint affectation, with its own rationalizations and justifications, like writing longhand with a fountain pen today. I expect to write both with and without AI for the rest of my life, just as I still use paper notebooks and whiteboards, alongside every sort of digital too. Or still do arithmetic in my head or on paper, even if I mostly use calculators or code.

At some point, I expect to stop declaring my AI use. Nothing much will change as a result of this particular moral panic.

What will change though, is the nature of collective attention, and the kinds of minds we use to create crucible effects to drive our own thinking. We will do more and more of our intellectual production in collaboration with AIs, and require fewer and fewer of the affordances of “urban” intellectual milieus to do so. And with the humans we retain in our intellectual lives, we will build different relationships, significantly mediated by AI (early example — communicating with vibe-coding collaborators through Github pull requests produced and consumed by agents on either end).

We will, in other words, embrace the message of the medium, and lean into cognitive farmsteading.

***

A good way to understand the idea of cognitive farmsteading is to consider the physical counterpart under comparable science-fictional transformations.

Asimov’s robot murder mysteries for instance, which are set against the backdrop of the end of the first wave of space colonization, led by the Spacers, and the beginnings of the second. In the books, the Spacer wave, heavily reliant on robots, has led to a condition where the fifty Spacer worlds are extremely sparsely populated (by extremely long-lived and rich humans) and stagnant. Earth, on the other hand, is a densely overpopulated and hyper-urbanized planet populated by poor and short-lived humans.

Individual Spacers live on highly automated manor-like exurban estates, worked by serf-like robots. Human-to-human relations are distant and highly virtual.

In the most extreme case, on the planet Solara (the last-colonized of the Spacer worlds), individual humans live on vast estates with tens of thousands of robots. They barely ever see each other in person, and are terrified of sexual intimacy. In the original Spacer novels, featuring the Earth-based detective Lije Bailey and his Spacer robot partner Daneel, the Spacer worlds are set up as a kind of ambiguous utopian dystopia, sliding into lifelessness, while Earth is the reverse, a sort of dystopian utopia, with liveness flowing through it despite the privations.

While Bailey merely harbors a slight initial suspicion of Spacers and robots that he quickly overcomes, a significant fraction of Earth (including Bailey’s wife and his boss) are reactionary anti-technologists, part of a movement called the Medievalists. A good deal of the first novel, Caves of Steel, is about Bailey doing a delicate balancing act between the Spacers and their robots, and the Medievalists, as he investigates the murder. The plot turns on the tension between the two sides. (I strongly suspect Frank Herbert stole the idea of the Butlerian Jihad, like many other of his best ideas, from Asimov’s less refined originals).

Through the three novels in which they appear together, Bailey and Daneel push each other to their best, and both evolve into a sort of synthesis of Spacer and Earth sensibilities. Each is a cognitive weight-training partner for the other, and their collectively deployed attention solves tricky mysteries.

The novels, as part of their background, tell the tale of the second wave of human space exploration, originating in the densely populated and urbanized (“caves of steel”) Earth. This is the wave that actually leads to humanity spreading through the galaxy — in a densely urbanized human-centered way. This second wave, notably, features a taboo against both robotics and human longevity technology.

Curiously though, by the end of the grand arc of Asimov’s fictional universe, the plot returns to the Spacer milieu (in Foundation and Earth), where Solara still exists, as the last surviving Spacer world, down to a last couple of hermaphrodite inhabitants on a robotically automated planet. The grand narrative ends on a note of ambiguous redemption for Spacer culture, and a question-mark tacked on to the human-centric story (which has wound its way through the Foundation saga). The last Spacer ends up poised to play a significant role in the future along with Daneel, and we are left wondering whether the whole humanist saga (which comprises the bulk of the Empire and Foundation novels) was in fact the B-plot all along.

And perhaps even more significantly — the true protagonist of Asimov’s entire body of work is R. Daneel, a robot created by Spacers, and directly modeled on an important Spacer scientist. R. Daneel stewards humanity through tens of thousands of years through the series, while recursively self-improving himself into a god-like being. As is revealed in the final books Asimov wrote, Daneel and another Spacer-built robot, R. Giskard, were in fact responsible for the human-centered arc, through their catalysis of psychohistory. Not only do the robots lay the groundwork for psychohistory, and help Hari Seldon centuries later, they precipitate events in the last robot novel (Robots and Empire) that force humans on Earth to begin a second wave of migration to the stars, learning from the mistakes that left Spacer culture stagnant after its initial gains.

It is worth noting that though they influence the agenda, it is not the Medievalists who lead the charge, but pragmatists on Earth (such as Lije Bailey’s son). They reject the Spacer way (extreme longevity, unsociability, and robots), but aren’t anti-technology. They just come up with a different strategy that works better.

If you read Asimov in a shallow and incomplete way, you might be tempted to conclude that the Spacers represent a casual B-plot morality tale and evolutionary dead end. They’re not. Both directly, and through Daneel and Giskard, they are at the heart of the story, anchoring one end of a real bit of epic narrative tension, with the Medievalists anchoring the other end (reactionaries of various sorts keep recurring in Asimov’s plots).

While his output was prodigious, Asimov was not, it must be admitted, particularly gifted in a literary sense. You could probably train an AI today on his works to produce reasonable and satisfying Asimov pastiches. His underlying ideas though, are often underrated, and their subtleties missed by the more snobby literary science fiction writers and readers of later decades.

The analogy to our times is almost too on-the-nose, which says something about Asimov’s prescience, and why he deserves his stature in science fiction.

We are already at the Medievalist-Spacer fork in the road in relation to disembodied AI, and are rapidly barreling towards it with actual robots that are going to be in many ways more capable than Asimov’s positronic-brained ones. We can already create Spacer worlds for our minds if we so choose, and will soon be able to create physical approximations.

***

In case the analogy isn’t obvious, the pre-AI internet is our “Caves of Steel” disembodied digital Earth. The looming AI internet, in at least one important retail manifestation, is already starting to look like Spacer worlds. The degenerate case is already here. Many lonely, friendless people have retreated to solipsistic worlds with AIs as their only friends.

Cognitive farmsteading, the way I’m proposing the concept, lies somewhere between the first and second wave of space colonization in Asimov’s world.

The most AI-positive corners of the cozyweb, like a few discords and slacks I participate in a lot, are already cheery little villages with mixed human/AI populations. This is an early version of cognitive farmsteading, featuring simple AI bots actively constructed and empowered to participate alongside humans. I myself have built and deployed three such bots.

This sort of thing is spiritually the antithesis of AI-hostile inquisitorial tooling of the sort that has cropped up on Substack.

In this analogy, obviously, places like Substack, which are institutionalizing AI-hostile defaults, are like Medievalist strongholds in Asimov’s novels.

The old internet (RIP) could be regarded as cognitive urbanization on steroids. In its heyday you could find your intellectual milieu at whatever scale you wanted, online. Even with the cozyweb turn and the evolution from dark forest to dead forest, the internet largely retained its hyper-urban character. Even without the AI bots, my Discord communities are more intense intellectual crucibles than the various university campuses in which I spent over a decade of my life (universities are surprisingly intellectually isolating places; they’re better than villages and provincial small towns where nobody reads, but not by as much as you’d think).

A year and some months into reading, writing and thinking with AI in the loop by default, I’m come to the conclusion that the hard part is not getting AI to do what I want.

The hard part is getting humans I like to think with to play new kinds of collective attention games together.

***

One of the early signs that collective attention isn’t going to be the same in the future due to a human problem is the precommodification effect. Increasingly, humans stumble upon the same insights at the same time, so there is no meaningful gradient for new ideas to flow along.

To the extent the urban mode of intellectual production rests on people being able to compete to be first to an idea, and participating in competitive activities where being first is important, urban intellectual culture is already broken.

I spent two decades writing in public with first-to-insight ideas as my stock-in-trade. Being early to spot something happening, and giving it a roughly right characterization and evocative name, was basically what I did across hundreds of blog posts and newsletters. And it worked because lots of other people were on my heels in each case, and lots more people had unconsciously recognized, but not named or characterized, the thing I was point out. Being consistently just slightly ahead of a mass of properly primed subconscious collective attention is valuable, and can pay the bills if you do it right.

This particular game drove most urban intellectual culture for centuries, and on steroids, was what drove internet writing for decades.

This game is largely over now. It has been reduced to an easier training activity you do with AI in the loop, as the price of participation in the stranger games with stranger rules that are emerging. I no longer even bother posting about ideas I suspect are precommodified.

Today, chances are, for anything worth thinking about, everybody capable of thinking about it is already doing so with AI in the loop, developing similar understandings, down to similar metaphors and neologisms. While useful to the individual, it does make it harder and more pointless, to talk to other humans about your thinking in the usual ways. Everybody already thinks the same thoughts in the same ways, and the race is over before it begins. A great many thoughts are now common knowledge at birth (a phenomenon some determined deists are interpreting luridly as evidence of AIs becoming “hyper-persuasive”). So you have to find new ways to talk to people.

Equally, there is a precommodification of curiosities too. It is harder to think up truly original questions. LLMs act not just like index funds of past knowledge, but as index funds of present curiosities. If you explore an unformed curiosity about some contemporary matter with an AI, chances are, others are doing so too, and will converge on similarly framed curiosities.

The situation is similar on the reading front. It is increasingly easier and more valuable to have AIs summarize a great deal of reading material for you, reserving raw reading bandwidth only where there is either pleasure on offer, or value to close-reading original texts. If an author offers neither, and also locks down the text, I typically skip it.

With memory turned on, LLMs don’t just summarize texts adequately, they make all the obvious connections to everything else you’ve been thinking about. AI can act in precognitive ways in relation to your own thinking.

For those used to intellectual identity as a live social identity, this condition represents a bleak dead end. A Spacer polity of the mind, where we can all consume and produce vastly more ideas (the equivalent of living vastly longer like Spacers perhaps), but have less need for each other.

But if AI undermines existing intellectual culture with some irresistible affordances, it also creates a basis for new intellectual cultures with others.

***

The idea of cognitive farmsteading rests on three specific affordances of AI — automation, bespokification, and pensievification. And these affordances are orchestrated in ways that reveal that not only is AI a technology of intellectual ruralism, it is a a technology of intellectual rural domesticity.

Ie, at the retail user level, it is much more of a highly customizable “home” technology, like handyman services, or kitchen cabinets, than a “work” technology.

Of the three, automation is the most obvious one — AI allows you to set up entire complex intellectual farmsteads, with a dizzying variety of automations and scaled operations. If you enjoyed tools like IFTTT and Zapier, you’re probably going nuts with AI automation right now.

For example, I’m finally making use of big black hole of PDFs accumulated over 20 years, and lugged from laptop to laptop (like some of my physical moving boxes that I’ve lugged unopened from apartment to apartment for a decade). With AI, I’ve been able to set up a little automation where my personal librarian sends me a random PDF everyday on Telegram, and I give it feedback to guide future choices. An entire area of highly personal and idiosyncratic memory has come alive.

Another example: I just read a book with a lot of untranslated French passages. I had Claude Code translate all of the French bits and produce a document that I read alongside the book.

Third example. I now routinely consume and produce all sorts of specialized material, well beyond my own training and intellectual abilities. Having an AI read papers you can’t read yourself, and work with your ideas to build on top of the ideas in those papers, is now a routine matter.

What is rural about this is that modern farms are also highly automated and leveraged for the few humans who remain and work on them.

Bespokification is also pretty obvious — AI allows you to create n=1 products customized to your needs, creating a virtuous cycle where your thinking can get increasingly idiosyncratic and better adapted to your circumstances.

This is perhaps easiest to see if you use agentic coding to create actual apps and other software tools for yourself, like a farmer improvising equipment, but it is visible even in advanced patterns of pure chatbot-level AI use. My wife, for instance, has been using purely chat-based AI for 3 years now to guide her experimentation with bespoke skincare products, which she makes mostly for herself and friends and family (it is worth noting that as late as the 1890s, rural households made things like soap for themselves, before consumerization turned those essentials into purchasable products).

More revealingly, she (and to a lesser extent, I) has also been using it extensively to parse and make sense of what would otherwise be an overwhelming amount of complexity in managing renovations and customizations of the old house we bought this year. Home improvement is necessarily a game of bespoke solutions to relatively idiosyncratic problems.

It is not an accident that AI and home improvement go together like peanut butter and jelly. AI is an unstoppable source of bespokification of consumption. The home is an insatiable sink of bespoke consumption. The rural home, with its greater distance from urban amenities, and higher need for autonomy, doubly so.

This is why I say: AI is a domestic technology. We use it in ways that reflect the idiosyncratic needs of n=1-4 users, the way we use various technologies and services to customize homes.

As a technology of intellectual rural domesticity, AI drives us to heavily customize the ideas we consume and produce for our own needs, with a great deal of DIYery.

While this can and does fuel lots of wild, solipsistic crackpottery, it also allows the pursuit of original ideas with the kind of leverage that would have required a great deal of compromise with other humans in urban centers.

The third attribute, pensievification, named for the fictional pensieve in Harry Potter (a device that lets you externalize and share raw memories with others), is perhaps the least obvious “rural domesticity” affordance of AI. The simplest form, sharing an incomplete chat, is already well-known. More complex forms of pensievification are emerging every week. This is like trading excess produce from your farm with neighbors.

Not only can you surround your brain and life with bespoke, customized automations, you can share their outputs with others. You can go from n=1 or n=family to n=few.

This is where a new kind of collective culture is emerging; one that is surprisingly more intimate because of AI use. Pensievification allows a kind of raw, vulnerable sharing of work-in-progress artifacts that both calls for higher trust, and engenders it.

I’m genuinely surprised by the degree to which others are using AI tools I’ve built, and I’m using tools others have built. And often, these are just barely skinned with enough of a robust UI for people other than the creator to use.

What happens when you lean into all three? You get a very different sort of intellectual culture than the kind that has dominated much of history.

***

At the aggregate level, we’re trading the biases of cognitive urbanism for the variance of cognitive ruralism. At the individual level, we’re becoming more solipsistic in our individual thinking, and more intimate in our shared thinking.

But we’re also becoming better adapted to the local conditions of our own intellectual lives, just as farms must be adapted to local topography. Social solipsism is enabling more material realism.

Our intellectual products are becoming more home-made and home-consumed. They’re being shared in more raw forms with more trusted people who share a greater degree of context with us.

We’re trading industrially organized competitive urban intellectual production on a global scale for a sort of communitarian mutualism. We’re trading polished and packaged intellectual outputs designed to propagate around the world as a cash crop for rougher ones designed to serve the intellectual needs of smaller groups, often outside of the cash economy.

As these dynamics strengthen, the general tendency of AI will be to drive divergence, not convergence. The index-fund-like convergence at the level of basic thinking, and the precommodification effects at the level of public language, give way to a redshifting universe of thought, as islands of knowledge begin to retreat from each other at an accelerating place. That they may all eventually vanish past each other’s lightspeed horizons may not matter if they have nothing much of value to say to each other.

It no longer matters if dozens of people come up with the same idea or neologism at the same time, in conversation with the same foundation models. Those parallel rediscoveries are going to shape the trajectories of small, local milieus in highly context-dependent and path-dependent ways.

When rediscoveries and reinventions of useful ideas become so cheap that they’re not worth transporting over long distances, they can be be better adapted for local use. Interestingly, something like this logic applies to biofuels — agricultural waste feedstock is not worth converting to fuel that is transported long distances, but is worth utilizing in situ.

Is all this good or bad? I don’t know, and I kinda don’t care. What matters for me is that it is interesting. More interesting than medievalism at least.

In the long run, perhaps cognitive farmsteading will lead to the sort of stagnation Asimov’s Spacer worlds experienced. Or perhaps, it will become a culture that remains communal enough to resemble the second migration wave (though I do hope we take the robots with us).

But either way, it is clear that pre-AI digital caves of steel are already unlivable, and increasingly medievalist, inward-looking, and involutionary in their imaginations.

Like Lije Bailey, I have a certain affection for the caves of steel, since that’s where I’ve spent much of my adult life. But I like the idea of having one foot in each possible outward-bound future better.

Congratulations to Ross D. and others

Ross Douthat, an opinion columnist at The New York Times, is leaving to join the CBS News program “60 Minutes” as a correspondent, the show’s executive producer said in a memo to staff on Tuesday.

Mr. Douthat is among a group of journalists joining for the show’s 59th season, which will premiere on Sept. 13. The writer Sebastian Junger and Gianna Toboni, a former Vice News correspondent, will become contributors, along with Trevor Phillips, a British journalist who joined CBS last month. Norah O’Donnell, the former anchor of “CBS Evening News,” will be a correspondent as well.

They are the first significant hires at the long-running Sunday program since CBS’s new editor in chief, Bari Weiss, orchestrated a shake-up that led to the departure of three top correspondents this spring, including the veteran journalist Scott Pelley.

Here is the full NYT story.

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Axon Is Another License Plate Surveillance Company

Governments are switching, but I’m not sure it makes a difference:

…some municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, are ditching their Flock arrays. But keep in mind that if they’re only switching from Flock to another brand of license-plate readers, like Axon, it’s like a gambling addict trying to kick the habit by switching from FanDuel to DraftKings.

[…]

Despite what you may read on the Flock website, Axon cameras are pretty effective when it comes to hoovering up personal details that can go far beyond your license plate numbers. That means a municipality that opts for Axon cameras instead of Flock units won’t necessarily reduce the amount privacy its citizens lose through their use.

Flickr iOS app reverted

As a follow up to my previous post about the not-yet-ready Flickr iOS app, as of version 5.0.3 they have reverted the app to the previous code.

There’s more info on their help page for the app “refresh”:

We know the new app hasn’t met the bar you expect from Flickr. Since launch, we’ve heard your feedback about bugs, missing features, and rough edges, and we want to acknowledge that directly. Here is where we currently stand:

iOS: We’re in the process of rolling back the iOS app to the previous version while we address these issues. You should see this reflected in the App Store shortly.

Android users are stuck with the new version.

(Confusingly, today, 28 July, that help page says it was updated “4 days ago”, and “UPDATE Jul 20, 2026”. The reverted version of the app is listed in the App Store on 23 July. It also still says the latest version of the iOS app is 5.0.2.)

Very strange that this was released in such a state, especially with no communication to try and set expectations. The monthly wrap-up post on the Flickr Blog last week still didn’t even mention the new app. Bizarre.


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[Sponsor] Introducing Agent Fone

Every phone now ships with an assistant. You ask, it answers. Lame. We built a phone that writes software instead. The app idea you’ve had in your notes for years. The side hustle you will never get around to building. The weird thing only you would want. Describe it, answer a few questions, and it’s on your home screen — yours, working, sendable to a friend. No app store between you and your ideas. The first fifty units go to teams who’ll push on it and tell us what breaks.

 ★ 

‘Always Choose the Good Soap’

Jason Snell:

Apple’s most valuable asset is its brand. Not its real estate, not its intellectual property, not even any particular product. Even the mighty iPhone has no value if, over time, the traits that differentiate it from competitor products are erased. Apple’s brand has always stood for higher quality products — you pay more, but you get more. Apple has never wanted to be the low-price leader. It didn’t put stickers on the first Intel Macs to get some marketing dollars from Intel. It doesn’t load up new Macs with loads of lousy bundled third-party software like so many PCs do.

Those are choices Apple has made that cost the company revenue, but they’ve got a bigger purpose. They reinforce the brand.

Opting not to add more revenue to the bottom line is a difficult choice for anyone working at a profit-driven corporation.

Great minds write about the same topic on the same day.

What Snell’s column makes clear is that the incremental revenue Apple is gaining from putting shitty ads in its software comes at a price. They’re withdrawals from Apple’s brand equity. The brand equity that Apple is losing by foisting these ads is more valuable than the marginal dollars they’re earning from them. There’s juice, yes, but it’s a perfect case of the juice not being worth the squeeze.

It shouldn’t be easy for users to simply imagine obvious ways for Apple’s software to improve. But it’s trivial for any user to imagine an obvious way for the App Store to be better: take out the ads from search results. If there were a preference setting to remove ads from App Store search results, everyone would turn that on. Apple is doing a thing that obviously makes the experience worse. It’s a little thing. The experience is only a little worse. But getting all the little things right is how you get to insanely great, and insanely great is Apple’s North Star.

Apple’s competition is lousy with ads. Downright lousy. Apple seems to be choosing the route of “Don’t like ads? Choose Apple, we shove fewer of them in your face.” That’s way less bracingly clear a marketing message than “Don’t like ads? Choose Apple, we don’t shove any ads in your face.” If your competitors’ stores all smell pervasively of dogshit, don’t aim to have the store that smells the least like shit. Aim to have a store that smells pristine. “Our stores only carry a vague whiff of dogshit” is not insanely great.

 ★ 

Tuesday assorted links

1. The economics of personal holding companies, including in the Nordics.

2. Jongkuch Mach is a good name for a very tall basketball player.

3. Can AI predict who will be the most important philosopher in 2046?  For economics, the top pick of GPT Pro is Ludwig Straub, second choice is Stefanie Stantcheva.  I like those selections, but perhaps they are more 2036 than 2046?

4. “Pope Clement’s Cafe”?

5. Roon is a good writer.

6. Emily Wilson on Nolan.

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AI and Bubbles All the Way Down

Like many others, I continue to be baffled and unnerved at how transactions that seem like definitional signs of a bubble (or possibly even fraud) are now so thoroughly baked into the very structure of the AI industry. This morning, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman starts a piece with this overview: “OpenAI and Anthropic need to borrow a lot of money but they don’t have profits or a track record of creditworthiness. Enter Jensen Huang.”

It goes on from there …

Nvidia’s $250 billion backstop to OpenAI will let the money-burning AI lab lease space at the largest data center ever built. OpenAI doesn’t have an investment-grade rating, so Nvidia is essentially lending its own. Broadcom did the same thing for Anthropic a few weeks ago; I wrote at the time that it was “like getting your parents to cosign the lease on your first apartment.” Nvidia’s backstop for OpenAI is literally that — OpenAI is trying to sign a lease and its landlord, SoftBank, doesn’t like the tenant risk. So Huang is cosigning.

This is not like getting your parents to cosign the lease on your first apartment. It’s more like getting your top employee to cosign your first lease because you pay that employee huge sums of money despite the fact that your company, which pays his salary, actually makes no money. A bank would likely see the problem with the top employee co-signing the mortgage on the boss’s fancy home. But it doesn’t seem clear to people in this case. Or rather, it seems completely clear. But we seem to have decided this is just how AI works: the technology is so amazing that it requires this kind of mutual leverage with no floor beneath it.

I’m reminded of some old Bugs Bunny or maybe Roadrunner cartoon where Bugs gets to the last rung at the top of his ladder. But he needs to go higher. So he grabs a rung from the bottom of the ladder and puts it on the top and keeps doing that and now he can just climb up without limit. As we know this only works with cartoon physics.

For what it’s worth, my own unlettered assumption is that AI is something like the internet circa 2000: both a massive bubble but also a transformative technology that would and did transform the future. The difference that worries me is that the dot com bubble was genuinely broadly based. The opportunity was obvious. Lots of companies were starting up to get a piece of that opportunity and lots of investors wanted to fund those gambles. It was a bubble. It did burst. But we now see the bursting of the dot com bubble as essentially a speed bump on the road to the tech boom that has defined in good ways and bad (increasingly bad) the economy and society of the early 21st century. The AI boom is not broad-based in the same way at all. It is driven overwhelmingly by the existing tech monopoly platforms. Even the new entrants — Anthropic, OpenAI, et al. — are heavily tied to the same sources of capital and often the same people. When you add in the fact that the tech monopoly platforms are mostly structured to keep control in the hands of CEO-founders, you have the fact that the decisions are being made by a very, very small number of people.

Of course, the stock market gains require widespread buy-in, and perhaps even more since they are heavily dependent, more than in the past, on retail investors. Still the core decision-making is very, very tightly held. And while it’s possible to interpret that fact in other ways, it certainly seems to me like it spells trouble.

Grand Jury Skullduggery, Reflecting Pool Edition?

Lawyers for former Olympian David Hearn, charged with felony vandalism of Trump’s already falling apart Reflecting Pool refurb, went to court today and asked the judge in the case to allow them to review records of the grand jury that charged Hearn with a felony. (I first saw this referenced in an NBC article by TPM alum Ryan Reilly.) You’ll remember the basic details here. Trump’s botched Reflecting Pool job was already visibly peeling up from the bottom of the pool. Hearn appeared to touch one of the peeled up areas. And the Feds charged him with causing at least a substantial amount of the damage.

What’s notable about this is that the Trump DOJ has already been caught on several occasions either committing serious grand jury misconduct or improperly instructing grand jurors so as to secure indictments. That’s what Hearn’s lawyers say happened here. And they make a pretty good case.

The key issue Hearn’s lawyers are now pressing is somewhat technical. To be charged with a felony, you have to commit damage of more than $1,000. Less than that, it’s a misdemeanor. But the only witness who spoke to this issue of damages before the grand jury said that the pool was already damaged and needed to be repaired even if Hearn hadn’t done anything. That witness, a National Parks Service employee, also didn’t appear able to say what damage Hearn had even done. Hearn’s lawyers then present case law which shows that the legal standard in Washington, D.C. is that damages are calculated based on the condition the damaged item was in immediately before the defendant did his alleged crime. The government said the estimated cost of the repairs was between $6,000 and $15,000. That’s what got them over the $1,000 threshold. But the government’s sole witness said those repairs were necessary before Hearn did anything.

What Hearn’s lawyers are arguing is that if the grand jury was properly instructed on the law and legal standards, the decision to indict would make no sense. Because whatever Hearn did didn’t change the cost of the necessary repairs. Therefore, they want access to those grand jury instructions or, failing that, they want the judge to review them.

The filing also goes to some length describing the Trump DOJ’s record of grand jury misconduct and mis-instruction, including references to the Broadview Six case in Chicago. They note, tellingly, that these instances of grand jury misconduct and improper instruction seem to come especially in “matters of particular interest to current Executive Branch leadership.” In other words, when Trump or former attorney general Pam Bondi or acting AG Todd Blanche have it in for someone or is embarrassed by something the defendant did. Good point!

I lack the expertise to evaluate the legal arguments made in this filing. But the argument seems pretty compelling on its face. If the thing was already broken and required the specified repairs, the defendant’s actions can’t be what requires those repairs. You might be able to charge him with a misdemeanor for doing additional damage even if that damage had no financial consequence. But it’s the felony charge that is the issue at this point.

Of course we also have in the background that everyone could see that the pool lining was peeling up and that Hearn likely at most lifted it a bit to look at it. The possible legal insufficiency of the charges has more impact when everyone knows that the charges are basically bogus in the first place. My interest is on the issue of regularity, how much the Trump DOJ has lost the assumption that they’re basically playing straight. If they’re not — and there’s lots of evidence on that at this point — courts should and in many case will give defendants a lot more leeway to examine whether the charges they’re facing are legitimate in the first place.

Let’s keep an eye on this one.

Steve Jobs in 2011: ‘We Build Products That We Want for Ourselves, Too, and We Just Don’t Want Ads’

Dan Frommer, writing for Business Insider in 2011 about that year’s WWDC (Jobs’s last):

While discussing Apple’s free, new iCloud email service, he took an apparent jab at Gmail, Yahoo Mail, and the others, which stuff ads in their free email services.

“No ads,” he boasted. “We build products that we want for ourselves, too, and we just don’t want ads.”

Jobs’s “we” is interesting to ponder here. Apple’s senior leadership today is comprised mostly of the same people in senior leadership positions in 2011. Tim Cook, Phil Schiller, Eddy Cue, Craig Federighi, Greg Joswiak, and even John Ternus (then a director of hardware engineering for the iPad team, I believe) were all presumably included in Jobs’s “we”. The only big player missing today from Jobs’s 2011 “we” is Scott Forstall.

The people haven’t changed, but Apple has. Strong leaders inevitably shape the personality — the spirit — of organizations over time. Apple in 2011 was peak Steve Jobs Apple. Apple in 2026 is peak Tim Cook Apple. But it was Cook who popularized the “you’re not the customer, you’re the product” argument against “free with ads” online services. But that was in 2014.

 ★ 

July 27, 2026*

The Trump administration is trying to rewrite the history of the United States. Trump officials reject our traditional understanding that the country was based on the ideas the Founders wrote in the Declaration of Independence and that Americans from all walks of life have struggled ever since to make those principles come to life.

In place of that historic understanding, the administration argues that the United States was founded as a white nation whose citizens are defined by their European heritage and the land they inhabited, an echo of the “blood and soil” ideology of Germany in the 1930s.

Making that shift requires erasing not just our multicultural past but also our history. On July 4 the White House Domestic Policy Council released a report titled Saving America’s Story: How Ideological Capture at the Smithsonian Institution’s National Museum of American History Erases Our Heritage. The report says that the National Museum of American History (NMAH) “fails in the basic task of illuminating our heritage.”

It continued: “Our central finding is not that the Museum has simply added overlooked stories, corrected perceived errors, or broadened its historical scope. Rather, it is that Museum leadership has explicitly adopted an ideological framework that no longer treats the American story as a shared national inheritance to be taught or celebrated, but as a political instrument to divide, dispirit, and discourage our citizens.”

Even more oddly, the report was a direct and personal attack on Dr. Anthea M. Hartig, director of the National Museum of American History, whom it accused of exercising “an extreme political activism that seeks to transform our country.”

The report claims that NMAH “purposely presents America as a problematic country irredeemably conceived, founded by deeply flawed men, and still operating today as an instrument of systemic racism and oppression. In the Museum’s current telling, the country is, above all, defined by white supremacy, slavery, conquest, exclusion, hierarchy, racism, xenophobia, misogyny, and systemic injustice.” It claims that the Founders are minimized or excluded and that the story told of the nation is “one of regret, tragedy, and shame.”

It claims the museum has a “longtime staff reading group devoted to” a framework that treats museums as places of activism and that NMAH engages in “illegal alien activism” and “transgender activism.” It attributes to the museum guilt by association for organizations that have helped to fund exhibits, including the Mellon Foundation, which, an endnote explains, “allocated $72 million to ‘racial justice’ projects.” Indeed, the authors of the report appeared to be most exercised over racism, shown in their anger over the museum’s presentation of human enslavement.

They said the NMAH should “tell the story of how the colonies inherited slavery from both global and European slaving practices” and how “America’s Founders helped spark a worldwide movement that ultimately ended slavery.” They want the museum to emphasize how 750,000 Americans died in the Civil War—they did not appear to want mentioned that 258,000 of them died to protect enslavement—and how “Americans came to reject Jim Crow and segregation.” It should tell how “the United States…has done more to advance and secure fundamental rights than any other nation in the world.”

Part of that, the report says, should include “America’s contributions to global freedom, from saving Europe from multiple tyrannies, to illustrating the virtues of a market economy and a free people.”

The White House report is a nakedly political document, seeking to prove that “the museum profession has catechized and codified the ideological dogma of DEI to…an astonishing degree.” It builds on Trump’s belief that the Smithsonian has an “improper ideology” that Trump says is too focused on “how bad slavery was.”

That political purpose was clear on July 21, when Hartig and Yale University U.S. historian David Blight appeared before the House Delivering on Government Efficiency Subcommittee of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Testifying as well were two critics of the Smithsonian: Mike Gonzalez of the right-wing Heritage Foundation and Matthew Spalding, from Michigan’s Christian Hillsdale College. Another hearing the next day before the House Administration Committee continued the same themes.

Hartig told the committee that the report was inaccurate, saying “we unwaveringly attest that it does not accurately or fairly characterize the full range of work at the museum.” In fact, the report ignores large, long-term gallery exhibitions on subjects like the history of the U.S. military currently on display—that exhibit includes George Washington’s sword and the chairs Generals Ulysses S. Grant and Robert E. Lee used at the Appomattox surrender—in favor of past, temporary, revolving wall exhibitions in display cases along a wall. The exhibit that infuriated the Republicans by mentioning transgender youth, called “Girlhood (It’s Complicated),” closed more than three years ago.

In her testimony, Hartig responded to the report’s accusation that the museum “fails to substantively present America’s Founders and Founding.” As Kelsey Ables of The Atlantic reported, Hartig pointed out: “We have a dozen exhibitions that include the founding era right now: 368 objects, 340 labels. George Washington is mentioned 54 times. You have to walk by a whole section on George Washington in the Kenneth Behring Hall of Military History to get to a 15-foot-tall reproduction of the Declaration of Independence.”

But, in fact, the goal of the report was demonstrably to create a straw man for MAGA supporters to hate. Ben Davis of artnet reported that Representative Nancy Mace (R-SC) claimed Hartig strives “to represent queer pedophiles, indoctrination, and grooming of kids at an American history museum,” and demanded: “Do you know how many kids get raped by adults every year in this country?” Representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO) repeatedly demanded of Hartig where the exhibitions honoring “50 million aborted babies” are. Representative Eric Burlison (R-MO) demanded: “Do you love America?”

“I love this country unconditionally,” Hartig replied. She would repeat that sentiment repeatedly over the course of the two days of hearings as representatives talked over her to get clips to put on social media.

In a response to the administration’s report, Representative Joe Morelle of New York, the top-ranking Democrat on the Committee on House Administration, pointed out that in February 2017, a month after his first inauguration, Trump praised the Smithsonian’s National Museum of African American History and Culture and its founding director, Dr. Lonnie Bunch, for sharing “the great struggle for freedom and equality that prevailed against the sins of slavery and the injustice of discrimination.”

“Smithsonian museums did not change what they teach about slavery between 2017 and today,” Morelle writes; instead, “the President changed his position on whether they should be allowed to teach it.”

Morelle pointed out that the White House report demonized Hartig by taking her words out of context. For example, it made much of her statement, “Loving America is very complicated,” while omitting that she said that in a discussion with descendants of enslaved Americans.

It attacked her use of the common historical term “problematize,” which means to show that a simple idea is more complex than people realize, criticizing her statement that “the profession has ‘to figure out’ how ‘we’re going to’ ‘problematize’ the ‘250th Anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 2026.’”

Morelle points out that the disjointed fragments of this sentence show how deliberately the authors of the report butchered it. The full sentence was: “We have to figure out, all together, how we’re going to commemorate, problematize, remember, [and] celebrate the 250th Anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 2026.” The report cut those words and then criticized her for insufficient celebration of the U.S.

The president doesn’t control the Smithsonian, so the only thing the report’s authors could recommend was “a label at every entrance that reads: ‘Warning: the exhibits in this museum were prepared by people who don’t want you to love your country.’” On July 24 the president issued Executive Order 14415, titled “Restoring Trust in the Smithsonian Institution.” It ordered the National Park Service to place temporary signage outside the Smithsonian “that corrects inaccurate information presented inside the Museum.”

As Philip Kennicott of the Washington Post noted, the attacks will take a toll on “the scholars, curators, volunteers, security guards and the rest of the loyal staff [who] will have to pass signs that demean the integrity of their work.” And it’s likely the MAGA ecosystem will pick up the harassment. Earlier this month, Bridget Gillespie, a former intern at Jefferson’s home, Monticello, detailed in The American Prospect how that harassment—accusations of “wokeness,” reviews calling tour guides “morons,” visitors in pairs with one asking something provocative about slavery or states’ rights while the other filmed—changed the way interpreters operated.

History is not just a set of facts and events. It is the study of how and why societies change. Why do people act in certain ways? Are there patterns in human behavior? What makes a society successful? What makes one fail?

Accuracy is imperative. Without it, we will learn the wrong answers—not just about the way Jim and Juan Crow worked, but also about whether our country’s foundation is about race and land or, as the Founders said, about principles and the rule of law.

*The original version of this post began with an anecdote that I hoped would call attention to the problems of teaching U.S. history in today’s atmosphere. Instead, it heightened those problems. I have cut the anecdote and apologize for adding to the distress of this moment.

Notes:

https://www.notus.org/national/america250-civics-competition

https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/07/saving-americas-story/

https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/2026/07/smithsonian-hearing-hartig/688031/

https://americanhistory.si.edu/explore/exhibitions/in-pursuit

https://www.nps.gov/civilwar/facts.htm

https://news.artnet.com/art-world/anthea-hartig-hearing-smithsonian-2789825

https://americanhistory.si.edu/explore/exhibitions/price-of-freedom

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/restoring-trust-in-the-smithsonian-institution-e061/

https://democrats-cha.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-cha.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2027-the-white-house-campaign-to-seize-control-of-the-smithsonian-and-rewrite-american-history-committee-report.pdf

https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/2026/07/26/ive-visited-smithsonian-hundreds-times-it-inspires-wonder-not-division/

https://prospect.org/2026/07/02/what-broke-monticello-thomas-jefferson-virginia-glenn-youngkin/

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Rejecting the Constitutional Order

AI revenues are growing fast, but not fast enough

The returns on trillions of dollars of spending are deeply uncertain

The Apples and Oranges Tribunal

Suppose that apples sell for more than oranges and Parliament in it’s wisdom decides that, at last, apples and oranges must be compared. Not by shoppers — shoppers are biased, they merely reveal what they are willing to pay — but by a tribunal, which will determine whether apples and oranges are of truly equal value and thus must sell at the same price.

What would the tribunal need to know?

Start with land. Orange groves sit on Florida real estate with one set of alternative uses; apple orchards occupy Washington hillsides with another. The opportunity cost of an orange includes the housing development, the solar farm, the tourist attraction not built on that grove. How is the tribunal to value what was never built? Perhaps you answer: look at land prices. Brilliant suggestion, I reply. Keep going.

Next, capital. Orchards take years to mature, so today’s fruit embodies investments made under yesterday’s expectations about today, financed at interest rates the tribunal must somehow incorporate. Then storage: apples keep, oranges rot, so an apple and an orange in April are different goods than the “same” fruits in October. Add transportation, refrigeration, frost, pests, crop insurance, the option to divert fruit into juice, cider, marmalade, or pie, substitution with every other item in the produce aisle, and the shifting preferences of millions of consumers, each of whom knows things about his own breakfast that he could not articulate to a tribunal. It all matters.

To determine the “just” price of apples and oranges, the tribunal would need the entire general-equilibrium system.

Market prices are necessary to compare alternative uses of resources, as Mises taught us in 1920. In 1945, Hayek added the knowledge problem: the relevant knowledge is dispersed, local, tacit, and fleeting. Free markets are the only institution that aggregates that knowledge, articulates it in prices and gives people a reason to listen and respond. A price is a signal wrapped up in an incentive. Apples and oranges can be compared but only by the incomparably complex operations of the price system. There is a reason we call it the super-market.

Britain is now running this experiment in the labor market–Is a retail worker equal to a warehouse worker? A canteen worker equal to a coal miner? A dinner lady equal to a gravedigger?

Under the Equality Act’s “equal value” provisions, tribunals compare jobs by scoring their intrinsic properties — effort, skill, responsibility, working conditions — the labor theory of value applied to labor. How is it going? The Tesco litigation began in 2018; the tribunal’s fact-finding hearing ran 36 days, its judgments run to more than 900 pages resting on some 19,000 pages of training manuals, and the independent experts have yet to begin the report that will actually say whether a shelf-stacker’s job equals a warehouse worker’s. Eight years, and the calculation has not started. Apples and oranges, adjudicated but not, as Orwell or Marx or Stafford Beer might have imagined, by a industrial bureaucracy or by an all-knowing artificial intelligence but by lawyers and commissions and tribunals. The worst of all worlds.

And having discovered that the tribunal cannot price two jobs in a decade, the government now proposes to add race and disability comparisons and an enforcement unit to publish official guidance on which reasons for a wage difference are permissible. A bureau of allowable scarcities.

Moreover, let us say that one day the tribunal reaches its conclusion and finds the truly just apple to orange price. At last, nirvana. The next day the public learns that vitamin C really does combat cancer–the demand for orange juice skyrockets. To encourage more orange juice production we need a higher price but wait…nothing about oranges or apples or the labor required to produce them has changed. We need to attract more labor to the orange juice industry but the effort, skill, responsibility and working conditions of orange juice workers has not changed. How can we justly pay them more than their apple juice brethren? Blank out.

The market compares apples and oranges every day. It is the only institution that can. But there is a deeper error here than computation. Suppose the tribunal succeeded. Suppose that after another decade it delivered the true and final score, shelf-stacker versus warehouseman. What would it have found? Not justice. A wage is not a grade on your character or a measure of your worth as a human being. A wage is a price — a report on how scarce your skills are relative to the desires of people you will never meet. Nurses are not morally less worthy than plumbers should they earn less than plumbers or vice-versa, and no one thinks otherwise except the tribunals.

Hayek nailed it in The Mirage of Social Justice: justice is about conduct — how one person treats another. An employer who defrauds his workers, an employee who steals from the till, a product sold under false pretenses — condemn them, take them to court. But the pattern of prices that emerges from millions of voluntary trades is nobody’s conduct. No one chose it, no one designed it, no one can be guilty of it. The constellation of prices is, in Ferguson’s phrase, the result of human action but not of human design. Demanding that prices be just is a category error, like suing the weather. Prices don’t grade our merit; they guide our actions. Ask them to do the first and they can no longer do the second.

Judge Anthony Kennedy said it well in the Ninth Circuit ruling that (mostly) killed comparable worth in the US: “neither law nor logic deems the free market system a suspect enterprise.”

The post The Apples and Oranges Tribunal appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Roundup #85: Most policy is also industrial policy

Photo by Fabrics for Freedom via Wikimedia Commons

Hallo, awesome readers! It’s time for a roundup. I actually never think of a theme for these in advance. I just dump everything in my list of “stuff I don’t have time to write a full post about" into the Substack editor, then try to figure out some kind of thread that ties the items together. Today’s list is, roughly speaking, about industrial policy — deliberate policies that governments can take in order to encourage specific sectors or pieces of their economies.

But first, podcasts! I went on Scott Galloway’s Prof G Markets podcast, to talk about the macroeconomic implications of AI:

You can also watch a video if you prefer! Not sure why, but it looks like I haven’t shaved in a long time even though it’s only 12 hours of beard shadow.

I also went on Jayden Clark’s podcast, Members of Technical Staff, with Sam D’Amico (founder of Impulse Labs). We talked about San Francisco’s local politics, while cooking steak on an Impulse stove:1

Anyway, on to this week’s list of interesting stuff!

1. Is Trump getting better on science policy?

The Trump administration, generally speaking, has been the worst on science policy in the country’s entire history. As part of its effort to root out wokeness from American institutions, it has slashed science budgets. Thanks to its conviction that immigrants are foreign invaders intent on overthrowing Western civilization, it has blocked or scared away lots of the foreign researchers that American science depends on. And due to its bizarre political alliance with pseudo-leftist conspiracy theorists, it has elevated quasi-mystical antivaxxers to positions of authority over biomedical policy.

But at the same time, there are some people within the Trump administration who are trying to take things in a more positive direction. The Office of Science and Technology Policy recently released a report called “Science: A New Golden Age” that contains a number of interesting and promising ideas. Alec Stapp of the Institute for Progress wrote a quick summary of what he likes about the plan:

The most important proposal is probably the idea to shift funding from organizations to individual scientists:

Refocus on the Individual Scientist: Put the working researcher back at the center of America’s scientific enterprise. Free them from the growing administrative burdens that now weigh them down for nearly half their working hours. Bet on people, not just projects, by expanding portable graduate fellowships like the National Science Foundation (NSF) Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP), backing early-career independence, and scaling long-horizon grants for the best and brightest modeled on National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director’s Pioneer Award. Open alternative pathways beyond standard academia, and ensure that selection rests purely on merit, not the political fashions of the day.

This is probably a very good idea on the merits. And you can also see how the OSTP folks are selling it to a skeptical Trump administration. Bypassing universities and funding researchers directly seems like it would naturally appeal to administration people who think universities are engines of woke ideology.

Another good idea is to diversify federal science funding mechanisms:

Move beyond consensus-driven peer review by adopting a broader menu of selection mechanisms suited to different kinds of science. Examples include “golden tickets” that empower individual reviewers to champion ambitious proposals, fast grants that deliver rapid funding decisions, prize challenges and advanced market commitments that pay for results, and regranting models that delegate funding authority to scientists to draw on distributed expertise…

Many of today’s most important problems are too large for an academic lab, too cross-disciplinary for a single department, and too hard to commercialize for a private corporation. Federal funding should support a wider range of performers. The recently launched X-Labs can assemble agile, time-bound teams of professional scientists and engineers to break specific bottlenecks. Advanced Research Projects Agencies (ARPAs) can empower individual program managers to make bold bets and curate researchers to execute them. Curiosity-driven institutes can give our best minds the stability needed to pursue fundamental questions over long time horizons.

Science is changing fast in the age of AI, and old funding models may not always be the best for every discipline. Also, notice that there’s a bit of industrial policy here — the mention of advanced market commitments suggests that Kratsios and the OSTP understand the intimate relationship between lab results and industrial scale-up in fields like chemistry and materials science.

Finally, OSTP wants to do metascience — they want to evaluate new funding methods as they’re implemented, to see what’s working and what isn’t:

Stand up an empowered metascience unit in federal science agencies, reporting directly to the director, with authority to run controlled experiments on review and funding mechanisms and to drive change across the organization.

I am in favor of all of these proposals. They’re very good, and most are long overdue. The problem is that they’re going to cost a lot of money. OSTP’s report isn’t a piece of legislation, or even a funding request; it’s just a plan, by one little piece of the government, that may or may not ever be implemented. Trump’s budgets still call for huge cuts to science funding, which would basically throw the OSTP plan right in the trashcan or (at best) turn it into a tiny symbolic demonstration program.

But these ideas are good enough that they need to be bipartisan. If Democrats take back the White House in 2028, they need to pick up this plan, slap a little token partisan gloss on it, maybe have Claude rewrite the language a little, and fully fund it.

2. America’s national debt is a big and growing problem

I’ve been shouting about the national debt for years now (including when Biden was President), so it’s good to see other people who aren’t fiscal perma-hawks shouting about it too. One of these people is Martha Gimbel, who worked for Biden’s Council of Economic Advisors. She writes that America’s national debt is already being reflected in higher long-term interest rates:

What should matter is that the consequences of this debt are not off in the future, but already here. The government’s deficits have saddled many American families with higher costs, largely from rising interest rates. The Budget Lab, the policy research center at Yale where I am the executive director, recently estimated that congressional-spending decisions since 2015 have raised Treasury yields by almost a full percentage point, which affects what American households pay to borrow. For someone taking out a 30-year mortgage at last year’s median home price, this rise in long-term interest rates has increased their borrowing costs by about $2,500 a year, or roughly $76,000 over the life of the loan.

The bloated government budgets and waning federal revenues of the past decade are driving up costs across the board. Compared with a world in which these fiscal-policy changes did not take place, the annual borrowing costs on a typical auto loan are now up by about $120, and by about $770 on a typical small-business loan. Credit-card borrowing rates are also hovering near record highs. [emphasis mine]

Gimbel is no one’s idea of a fiscal perma-hawk. But actual perma-hawks, like the people at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, are naturally freaking out even more. Here is their illustration of how government debt can spiral out of control, when higher interest rates force the government to spend more even as they depress growth and reduce tax revenues, leading to even higher interest rates:

Source: CRFB

Relentlessly rising federal interest payments show why we’re in danger of this spiral right now.

Once this kind of spiral takes off, the only thing you can really do is print money, which can easily lead to horribly damaging inflation. A few macroprogressives on the left and die-hard supply-siders on the right still discount that possibility, but the experience of 2021-22 shows why Democrats and Republicans need to ignore those folks.

So what do we do? In fact, we have lots of levers to fix the debt. Here’s Gimbel again:

The main remedies for these problems—higher taxes and spending cuts—are generally politically unpopular. Every budget fix will have its critics, but some options are more palatable than others. Better funding for the IRS, for example, could help close the “tax gap”—the amount of taxes legally owed that are not paid in a timely way—which the IRS estimated at about $700 billion a year in 2022. Other levers include raising the retirement age and reducing Social Security benefits for high earners, who also tend to live longer; reforming Medicare Advantage, a program that has been shown to allow private insurers to overcharge the federal government; and removing the tax exemption on employer-provided health insurance, so that these benefits can be taxed as income. The Congressional Budget Office regularly publishes policies that could help close the deficit, and Americans need to decide what we’re willing to pay for and what we’re not.

It’ll take political will, but we managed to muster that political will back in the early 1990s. What we need, most urgently, is to destroy all vestiges of the bipartisan “deficits don’t matter” consensus that emerged in the 2010s and early 2020s. Yes, deficits DO matter.

3. Europe’s disdain for software comes back to bite it

Over the past decade or two, Europe has become increasingly hostile to the software industry. Although Europe does have a few successful software companies (SAP, Spotify), these are few and becoming fewer. Europe has generally chosen to regulate software rather than build it, enacting the free world’s most onerous software regulation — GDPR — in 2016. That regulation, which is why you have those useless, annoying “Accept cookies” popups on every website you visit, convinced European leaders that they can control the direction of software development by regulation alone — trading access to the European market in exchange for the ability of European leaders to have a say in how global software is made and run.

Why exactly Europe decided to regulate software instead of building it is a topic that deserves a deeper and longer discussion. It’s possible that European leaders just concluded, like Xi Jinping did in 2021, that software is a consumer toy that isn’t “real” technology — that it absorbs resources that are better used for manufacturing, that it doesn’t strengthen the nation or create real value, etc. It’s also possible that, like progressives in America, European leaders got negatively polarized against the “techbro” class — the industrialists who amassed vast personal fortunes figuring out new uses for software — and who used software regulation as a way to deprecate the social status of those industrialists.

But whatever it was, the European bias against software is looking more and more dangerous and self-defeating in the age of AI. AI is definitely not a toy, and not just a consumer good — it will be a crucial input into every manufacturing process on Earth, and a critical tool of national security. Countries that don’t have access to the best models may be at the mercy of those that do. They will be more vulnerable to cyberattacks, less capable of controlling drone armies (which now dominate the battlefield), and far less competitive in any export industry.

In other words, software matters now in a way it didn’t matter as much back when Europe decided it didn’t need the industry.

A group of European think-tankers and researchers have written a document called Europe 2031, illustrating the danger that their region is facing. It’s a bit long and dramatic, but it gets the point across. The report paints a vivid picture of what it would look like for Europe to become a de facto economic satellite state of the U.S. and China.

Avoiding this will require Europe to adopt a different approach toward AI than it did toward the consumer internet. Overregulation needs to be avoided, but that’s not enough. As the authors of Europe 2031 note, simple NIMBYism — similar to the kind that paralyzes the U.S. — will be sufficient to stop Europe from building data centers. European leaders aren’t just going to have to allow the AI industry to develop — they’re going to have to overcome their ambivalence toward software technology enough to fight entrenched NIMBY interests to get data centers built.

Fortunately, the Europeans appear to understand the gravity of the situation. But modern Europe has a long and storied history of issuing rhetoric and proclamations about the need for policy change, but not making anything happen. Basically, Europe needs to re-learn the political art of making things happen, because the era when it could coast on the legacy of post-WW2 industrialization has already come to an end.

4. Why doesn’t America have good trains?

The U.S. notoriously has one of the worst rail transit networks in the world. This is partly because building trains is so incredibly expensive in America. The Transit Costs Project did a deep dive into figuring out why, and concluded that there are a bunch of different factors — bad procurement procedures, lack of standardization, and so on. Basically, my interpretation of this report is that American cities and states decided that trains weren’t that important, which prompted them to A) gut their train-related state capacity, B) allow a bunch of essentially parasitic consulting firms, contractors, and unions to dominate what rail budgets did exist, and C) ignore the need to streamline regulations that prevented rail from getting built. If we started caring about trains more, we could start fixing those problems.

But it’s also notable that trains aren’t equally expensive everywhere in America. The Boyd Institute produced a good chart of the Transit Costs Project’s data, showing the dispersion of costs per mile of tunneled train in various countries:

This is a logarithmic chart, so the cost differences are very big. The U.S. cost per mile is 4x that of the median rich country. But note that in median terms, we’re barely more expensive than Singapore, and we’re actually cheaper than Hong Kong — both of which have great rail networks. If we wanted to, we could build great trains too, like Singapore and Hong Kong, despite the costs.

But we don’t. To me, this drives home the fact that our cost problem has a feedback loop with our unwillingness to build. Yes, high costs make us less willing to build trains, but not building trains keeps costs high. If we’re going to get better rail in America, we can’t only focus on pure cost factors like station standardization and procurement processes (though these are important). We’ve got to want to build more trains! That probably means things like denser development patterns and less crime and disorder on trains.

But the chart also shows something else — a few train systems, like NYC’s, cost an absolutely enormous amount. NYC is already train-dependent, so their problem isn’t a lack of trains — it’s the inefficiency, corruption, and incompetence they’ve allowed to become endemic in their system. So in NYC, the problem really is just fixing the system. The Transit Costs Project does have a new report on how to do exactly that, but it’ll require New Yorkers to get very mad at their government and demand change.

5. China’s choke-hold on rare earths

“Critical minerals” are metals that are very important for modern technology — traditional industrial metals like aluminum, nickel, and cobalt, rare earths like neodymium and yttrium, and others like gallium and germanium. For years now, American leaders have understood that our country is in grave danger from China cutting off our access to many of these critical minerals.

But a lot of Americans seem to still misunderstand why that danger exists. A lot of people seem to think that it’s all about mining the minerals, and that if we just A) discovered more deposits, and B) loosened regulation enough to allow mines to be constructed, America would have ample supply of these metals. This is wrong and misinformed. The reason China controls our supply of critical minerals is not because we don’t mine these metals, it’s because we don’t refine them.

When you dig metal up out of the ground, it’s not in a form you can use in industrial applications. To turn it from ore into something usable takes a bunch of steps — mostly, dunking it in various baths of chemicals. This is called refining.

Most critical mineral refining is done in China. Every year the IEA comes out with a report on critical minerals. Here’s a chart from this year’s report that shows how dominant China is in refining, even for things like cobalt that China mines very little of:

Source: IEA

In fact, China is becoming even more dominant in minerals like lithium and manganese. This is despite the fact that other than graphite and gallium, China doesn’t dominate the mining of any of these metals.

Why does China dominate refining of critical minerals? A few reasons:

  1. China dominates the downstream industries in which some of these minerals are used. For example, China makes most of the world’s lithium-ion batteries, so it makes economic sense to locate lithium refining near to the Chinese factories.

  2. China’s financial system gives a huge amount of cheap bank loans to companies that refine critical minerals, making it very cheap to finance these expensive plants.

  3. China has somewhat looser environmental restrictions than Western countries.

  4. China has been investing heavily in metal refining for decades, meaning that they’ve built up a tremendous amount of distributed tacit knowledge in difficult refining processes (such as rare earth refining).

If the U.S. and its allies want to get out from under the Chinese yoke, they will need to address all of these shortcomings at once. They’ll need to promote downstream industries like batteries (which Trump has discouraged and attacked) and electronics. They’ll need to revamp their financial systems to allow big loans for refineries. They’ll need to loosen environmental restrictions in targeted, judicious ways. And they’ll probably need to use AI to quickly reproduce the distributed tacit knowledge that makes Chinese refineries so efficient.

6. India’s women need to work more

One big barrier to Indian industrialization is that women in India haven’t gone to work en masse. In most countries, industrialization starts when a ton of women move off of farms into cities and work in factories doing “light industry” — clothing, fabrics, toys, electronics assembly, and so on. This creates manufacturing companies with the capital and know-how to move up the value chain into more valuable and capital-intensive parts of manufacturing. Eventually the wealth created by high-value manufacturing creates the demand for high-value services industries.

That’s the typical story, but in India it isn’t working yet. This isn’t because factory automation has made labor-intensive “light industry” irrelevant — witness Bangladesh, which has grown a bit faster than India since 2004, largely on the back of its garment industry. Bangladesh has a relatively low female labor force participation rate, but it has increased its rate steadily over the decades. India has not; women in India are much less likely to work outside the home than women in other developing countries throughout the region:

Source: OWID

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that getting Indian women out of the house and into the factory represents a huge economic opportunity. But Indian society seems to be resisting this.

A new paper by Alison Andrew and Andrea Smurra helps us shed a little bit of light on what’s going on. Low-income Indian women are increasingly not even leaving their homes:

We use rich time-use data on where, and how, individuals spend their time to quantify and describe women’s seclusion in India. We document extremely high levels of seclusion with the median married woman leaving home for just 0.5 hours/day and 45% not leaving home at all on a given day. Seclusion has increased markedly over the past two decades. While richer and more-educated women were, and still are, the most secluded on average, this gradient has flattened over time….Women are more likely than men to specialize in activities that are more readily done at home but are also more likely to carry out any given activity at home.

Why are Indian women becoming such hikikomori? Why hasn’t the lure of factory jobs been enough to draw them out of the countryside to the bright lights of the big city, as it was in Bangladesh, Vietnam, China, and a bunch of other countries? Andrew and Smurra don’t even hazard a guess. It’s not because they’re busy having lots of kids; Indian fertility rates are low and falling. Part of it might be simple lack of awareness of economic opportunities in factories. But whatever it is, it presents a big economic problem for India.

7. No, murder is not secretly really high

A lot of people like to have nostalgia for the 1950s. In fact, measuring by the murder rate, America is actually less violent now than it was back in the 50s (after a brief spike in the late 2010s and early 2020s):

Source: Axios

People who think of the 1950s as being very safe tend to instinctively resist this conclusion; they think something must be wrong with the data. And so many latch on to the myth that murder rates have only fallen because of improved trauma care in American hospitals.

But it’s just not true. In a recent blog post, Jeff Asher explained how this myth got started, and how we know the narrative is wrong:

Jeff-alytics
Is Murder Falling Because of Improved Trauma Care?
My first writing for a national audience was in the Fall of 2015 with FiveThirtyEight (RIP). My first piece there was about police department open data, but my second piece was titled Murder Rates Don’t Tell Us Everything About Gun Violence. Thanks for reading Jeff-alytics! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work…
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Basically, the myth rests on a 2002 paper by Harris et al., claiming to show that Americans are getting shot more and more often, but are surviving the shootings much more, leading to a decline in death but a rise in violence. Here’s their key chart:

So what’s wrong with this chart? The data on “lethality” isn’t official data — it’s just the authors dividing the aggravated assault rate by the murder rate.2 And the aggravated assault data they use is bad. They use the aggravated assault rate as reported by police. But as Asher explains in his post, American police forces got a lot more professional and thorough throughout the late 20th century. If someone hit you with a bat in 1955, there was a good chance you wouldn’t call the cops, or they wouldn’t record the incident. By 1995, there was a much better chance.

In fact, we can just go and ask people if they’ve been the victims of a shooting or an assault. When we do that, we can easily see that even as police-reported shootings rose in the 70s and 80s, shootings reported by victims didn’t rise:

So did aggravated assaults really rise in the 60s, 70s, and 80s? Almost certainly not. So aggravated assaults were probably not becoming less lethal over that time period. Yes, we had better trauma care, but we also had a lot better guns and a lot more dedicated murderers.3

In other words, America today really is about as safe as 1950s America. Sure, violence in the 50s was concentrated in poor and Black neighborhoods, but that’s true today too.4 What really changed in America since the 50s isn’t the lethal sort of violence, it’s urban decay and disorder. That’s what we need to focus on fixing.


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1

Disclosure: I own shares in Impulse Labs.

2

This rests on the bad assumption that aggravated assaults are just unsuccessful murders. In fact, most aren’t. But anyway, that isn’t the main reason the chart is bad.

3

My guess is that a lot more murders these days are connected with the drug trade than in the 1950s, meaning that big money is at stake instead of just momentary passion.

4

Of course as I often point out, one reason America is as safe as it is today is because people moved out of the inner cities. Suburbanization acts as a defense-in-depth against street violence. So some of the 50s nostalgia isn’t misplaced. But nice suburbs in the 50s — the kind you see in all the nostalgic photos and old advertisements and memes — were probably a little more violent than the equivalent suburbs of today.

The light narrows

Two people practising Brazilian jiu-jitsu on a blue mat, wearing gi uniforms in a grappling position.

My father’s death sent me to the jiu-jitsu mat. Then came defeat, low testosterone and the lure of a chemical cheat code

- by Wes Brown

Read on Aeon

Extreme Heat and Excessive Rainfall Today

The AEA presidential election

AEA is the American Economics Association, and a new president is needed, here is the candidate and likely winner:

PINELOPI (PENNY) KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG, William Nordhaus Professor of Economics and Global Affairs, Yale University.

Statement of Purpose: I am honored to stand for President of the American Economic Association. Economics has long contributed powerful tools to understand human behavior, markets, institutions, and public policy, but the environment in which we conduct research, teach, and engage with society is evolving rapidly. New technologies, especially artificial intelligence, are reshaping research methods, classroom instruction, and the evaluation and dissemination of scholarship. These changes create exciting opportunities, but they also raise difficult questions about the future of peer review in our journals, transparency, incentives, and research and teaching standards more generally. The profession also faces broader challenges: maintaining rigorous, credible, and independent research, supporting young scholars in an increasingly uncertain academic environment, and ensuring that economics remains open to diverse perspectives, methods, and global talent. If elected, I hope to use my research, teaching, policy, and editorial experience to help address these challenges, while promoting the core values of our discipline.

Here is the link.  Hilarious as always that there is only one candidate allowed (which model predicts this as optimal?), but for the first time I have seen a meaningful statement of purpose that I also like.  That said, I would like to see her endorse my core proposal, namely turning over all submissions, referee reports, and revisions (anonymized is fine) to the major AI companies for use as training data.  After all, such an act would further the mission of the AEA, right?

The post The AEA presidential election appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The Confucian fertility paradox

Total fertility rates in East Asia have fallen to levels without historical precedent, even though the region’s Confucian heritage long placed extraordinary emphasis on family continuity and large families. We argue that this “Confucian Fertility Paradox” dissolves once we separate two strands of the tradition and recognize that modernization affected them very differently. The pro-natal strand, built on lineage continuity, ancestor worship, and reliance on sons for old-age support, was gradually switched off as child mortality fell, incomes rose, women entered the labor force, and state pensions replaced the family as the main source of security in old age. What survived was the second strand: the veneration of education and of status won through examination success, rooted in the imperial examination tradition. Under modern conditions this surviving strand reverses sign with respect to its effect on fertility. Where the historical examination system rewarded having many sons so that one might succeed, the modern single-ranking tournament rewards concentrating resources on one or two intensively educated children, and the quantity/quality tradeoff turns a once pro-natal culture into a powerful engine of low fertility. Drawing on recent empirical evidence from China and Korea, we show how education competition becomes the channel through which traditional values now suppress childbearing. We explain why standard pro-natalist policies, such as removing birth restrictions or offering cash subsidies, accomplish little when the underlying problem is a competitive equilibrium in parental investment, and we argue that policies aimed at the source of the distortion, such as structural reform of educational pathways, hold more promise.

Here is the paper by Hanming Fang and Chang Liu.  Usually I am suspicious of such explanations, as the low birth rates typically apply also to families who do not face such education/career considerations.  Thailand?  Indians in Singapore?  Ethnic minorities in China?  But I pass this along nonetheless, due to the importance of the topic.  Via Glenn Mercer.

The post The Confucian fertility paradox appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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moonshotai/Kimi-K3

moonshotai/Kimi-K3

As promised earlier this month, Moonshot have released the weights for their excellent 2.8 trillion parameter Kimi K3. They're a hefty 1.56TB on Hugging Face.

Kimi introduced their own janky modified version of the MIT license with K2 back in July 2025. That license just added this paragraph requiring attribution beyond a certain size of commercial entity:

Our only modification part is that, if the Software (or any derivative works thereof) is used for any of your commercial products or services that have more than 100 million monthly active users, or more than 20 million US dollars (or equivalent in other currencies) in monthly revenue, you shall prominently display "Kimi K2" on the user interface of such product or service.

The K3 license no longer calls itself "modified MIT" and goes further, requiring a separate agreement with Moonshot for large "Model as a Service" businesses:

If the Licensee or any of its affiliates operates a Model as a Service business, and the aggregate revenue of the Licensee and its affiliates exceeds 20 million US dollars (or the equivalent in other currencies) in total over any consecutive 12 months, the Licensee must enter into a separate agreement with Moonshot AI before using the Software or its derivative works for any commercial purpose.

To Kimi's credit, they make no attempt to describe this as an "open source" license in their own materials, consistently using the term "open weight" in its place.

OpenRouter is already offering K3 from 7 providers, most of which are at the same $3/million input and $15/million output as Moonshot AI themselves.

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, llm-pricing, llm-release, ai-in-china, moonshot, kimi, janky-licenses

Smoke Blankets Oregon

Long plumes of gray wildfire smoke stream northeast from a line of fires in central and eastern Oregon, including the Beachcomb, Shingle, and Second Flat fires that threatened communities.
Smoke pours from dozens of large fires in Oregon in this image captured by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on July 26, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

Dry thunderstorms that popped up over the Cascade Range on the evening of July 15, 2026, peppered Oregon and Washington with thousands of lightning strikes as they moved east across the states. By the following day, NASA satellites had begun to detect large numbers of wildland fires burning throughout central and eastern Oregon.

Though initially small, these blazes strengthened as they were fanned by gusty winds and raced through landscapes parched by extreme drought and baking in summer heat. When NASA’s Aqua satellite captured the image shown above on the afternoon of July 26, smoke poured northeast from dozens of large fires that had collectively charred hundreds of square miles. The fires produced a blanket of haze, prompting state officials to issue air quality advisories for eastern Oregon.

Many communities faced evacuation orders as more than 10,000 firefighters battled wildfires throughout the state. On the day the image was captured, the largest active fires were the Hay Creek Complex, Brewer, Big Grass, Akawa Butte, and Powder River fires. Several of these blazes were less than 5 percent contained, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. State officials invoked Oregon’s Emergency Conflagration Act to protect communities as they responded to particularly threatening fires such as the Shingle, Bench, Beachcomb, and Second Flat fires.

Government satellite data are part of a global system of observations used to track fire behavior and analyze emerging trends. Among the real-time wildfire monitoring tools that NASA makes available are FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System), the Worldview browser, and the Fire Event Explorer.

As of July 27, 2026, fires in Oregon had burned more than one million acres, according to news outlets. Meanwhile, the National Interagency Fire Center reported that fires had burned more than 4 million acres across the United States. The 10-year average (2016-2025) for this point in the season is 3.4 million acres.

The NASA Disasters Program has been activated to support Wasco County Emergency Management’s response to the fires. The team will be posting maps and data products on its open-access mapping portal as new information becomes available.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Adam Voiland.

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Solar System bodies make deep space exploration more fuel efficient! Solar System bodies make deep space exploration more fuel efficient!