How to Read the Great Books in 52 Weeks

A few weeks ago, reader Cheryl Drury reached out to me. She had been inspired by my 52-week humanities program. Not only had she completed the course, but documented her progress on a podcast.

Cheryl Drury with the 52-week reading list.

She now had questions for me. And I agreed to do this Q&A—which we are both publishing on our respective Substacks. You can find her at Crack the Book.

Below is our conversation.


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Q&A with Ted Gioia (conducted by Cheryl Drury)

What led you to create your 52-week humanities reading program?

Many people want this kind of immersive education in the humanities—maybe even more so nowadays given the mind-numbing impact of apps and social media on our lives. People feel victimized by tech and mass media. They want to learn how to think more deeply, not just via soundbites and scrolling videos.

You probably feel it too—I know I do. Our attention span is degraded by the dominant digital culture. Our brains feel under attack. So it’s not surprising that a growing number of people are asking if these books, so rich in tradition and influence, might hold the key.

They’re on the right track. But they don’t know where to start. And even if they find some entry point, the task feels overwhelming. There are so many books, so many agendas.

So I set myself a challenge. I would design a complete survey of arts and culture in just 52 weeks. And I wouldn’t limit myself to Western culture—I’d try to cover the entire world.

Ted Gioia (photo by Ariana Gomez)

That’s a tall order.

It sounded crazy. Was it even possible? I’d find out.

But, first, I added to the challenge. I would limit the required reading to 250 pages per week—that’s a demanding workload, but not impossible. And I would also add music recommendations, with the same global approach—there would be a playlist for each week. I’d also suggest online art galleries, so that the program would encompass visual arts too.

If I could pull it off, the upside would be enormous. By the end of the year, the student would have a powerful grasp of all the major ideas and worldviews that have shaped the history of human culture. They will have also gained an appreciation of the great works of literature, music, and art that have inspired generations.

What a fantastic way to spend a year. This just might be the most mind-expanding project you could possibly undertake.

Just thinking about this got me excited. But then I sat down and started to design a week-by-week plan. That was hard work.

I was lucky that I had some relevant experiences, not just in my own education, but also in teaching. As an undergraduate at Stanford, I had tutored freshmen in the university’s great books program—which tries to encompass 3,000 years of culture in one year of intense reading.

Back then, I helped these teens as they grappled with the assigned texts, and I’d seen firsthand how life-changing it could be. Now I would do something similar, but bring it to a larger group of readers.

What’s been the feedback on this list in particular? I know you’ve created a few different reading lists—you first got my attention when you shared the list about living with technology. But this was the biggest reading list of them all.

I didn’t know what to expect when I published the first installment of my humanities reading list. Sure, I knew how much I care about this kind of deep education. But would others feel the same?

As it turned out, the response was overwhelmingly enthusiastic. So many people reached out to me. They wanted to be part of this. They have a hunger for this kind of learning and feel starved by mainstream culture.

I guess I knew that already from my own education. But I also knew how many obstacles there are to this kind of learning. When I was a teen, I encountered smug responses to my own efforts to read the great books. I was told that this kind of education was not relevant for someone like me—a working class kid from an Italian-Mexican household with parents who had never gone to college.

I thought that was patronizing in the extreme. For me, reading Plato, Shakespeare, Dante, etc. was tremendously liberating. The people who tried to prevent me from getting this education were, in my opinion, the narrow-minded ones.

When you were paring your list down to 52 weeks, what titles were the hardest to cut?

It was painful to limit myself to just 250 pages of reading per week. That meant I often had to pick part of a book—because it was too long to be read in its entirety.

For example, I would love to have students read all of The Brothers Karamazov. Instead I focused on the most famous part of the novel—the section known as “The Grand Inquisitor.” It’s just 30 pages—but it’s a mind-blowing 30 pages. I made similar decisions about Proust, Joyce, and other authors.

What was the biggest challenge in doing this? Looking at the entire course now, what are the one or two things you’d change, if any?

I wish I could offer more support to readers—in terms of video lectures, discussion groups, etc. I’m just one person, and can lay out a week-by-week plan. But I can’t replicate a total educational experience.

But I do point readers to online resources—for example, the Catherine Project. I also encouraged readers to get together and create their own discussion groups.

That said, it is possible to learn on your own without institutional support. Most of my education happened that way. The key thing is to devote time to reading and thinking. As I recently said in an article, reading shouldn’t be a goal, it should be a habit.

One of the biggest surprises for me was in the very last week—I loved David Foster Wallace.

If I taught high school or college students, I would assign that specific book by David Foster Wallace—it’s called Something to Do with Paying Attention. I’ve given copies as gifts to young people because it grapples with the core issues they must face if they want to become responsible adults. It tells you the things they don’t teach in school.

It helps that it’s just 150 pages, and is an easy read. That’s not always true with Wallace’s work.

If you had created a Week 53 set in the early 21st century, who would you have included? Do you have your eye on anyone writing now who might eventually qualify for inclusion?

If I had an extra week to the course, I wouldn’t add any books. Instead I’d focus on cinema.

This is the biggest gap in the program. I talk to young people who haven’t seen even the obvious films—The Godfather, Casablanca, Citizen Kane, etc. The whole notion of black-and-white movies is strange to them, and they view silent films as equivalent to cave paintings from prehistoric times.

Maybe the best solution would be to add one movie per week to the assignments—that would give us 52 films over the course of the year. We could cover a lot of territory that way, and the films would be a fun break from reading.

Which of the books on this list are personal favorites of yours? I know you said that you didn’t agree with some of the authors, but that they needed to be included.

Were some of your favorites among those that you actually disagree with? By the way, this was a huge area of growth for me, learning to value authors who had viewpoints I disagreed vehemently with.

There’s a misconception about the so-called “great books.” Critics gripe that this kind of education is a propaganda campaign on behalf of the past, indoctrinating youngsters in outdated ideas. Nothing could be the further from the truth.

These books force you to think critically about your own time and the future we’re building together. They force us to define our own values and priorities. In other words, they demand a response and stir up debate. You don’t just accept them, you wrestle with them.

So, yes, I have many disagreements with these texts. For example, I am more aligned with Aristotle than Plato—but students need to understand both of those thinkers. I could give many other examples.

At every step, you are encouraged to fight with these authors. Even when you disagree, you will learn how to think more deeply, more clearly, by confronting viewpoints from outside your comfort zone.

In other instances, you will dismiss certain authors—but then realize how valuable they were years later. Your first introduction to them plants a seed inside your soul, and it grows over time.

Can you give me an example of that?

For example, I read Don Quixote as a summer project when I was twenty years old. I worked my way through the entire Samuel Putnam translation in two volumes, and felt very proud of myself. But I didn’t really understand what this book actually meant—it was just a pastiche or slapstick comedy, as far as I could tell.

My copy of Don Quixote once belonged to my Uncle Ted—who also had a copy in Spanish with his annotations. I don’t know what happened to that book, but I benefited from this inheritance.

But years later, I had to research medieval literature on romance and chivalry while writing my book on Love Songs for Oxford University Press. I now saw that Cervantes was a towering figure, who changed the course of storytelling—deconstructing the popular myths of knights and jousts and lovely ladies (those were like the Star Wars of his day, tired franchises with too many reboots). He replaced these idealized myths with a new approach, which we now call the novel.

With the benefit of hindsight, I now see a double-edged approach in his great work. On the one hand, he mocks his protagonist Don Quixote, a deluded old man who still believes in the medieval myths. Cervantes even punishes Don Quixote, subjecting him to all sorts of indignities during the course of the book. But despite all this, the reader still loves Don Quixote.

We admire his loyalty to his ideals. The fact that Quixote’s worldview has now disappeared from society only makes us sympathize all the more. Even tilting at windmills is heroic, when viewed in this light.

By the way, this is a good metaphor for the entire project of studying the great books. We can find beauty in things that have disappeared from the world. We can still learn from them. I can embrace Don Quixote as a role model even if I know he was pursuing an impossible dream.

This kind of hermeneutic exercise is invaluable. We actually put ourselves in the proverbial shoes of another person, from another world. An education in the great books is our best way of cultivating this expansive mindset.

Why did you include the Mwindo Epic in your reading list?

The Mwindo Epic—a story from the Nyanga people of the Congo—may be the least well-known book on my list. Many people assume that Africa’s traditional literary sources have disappeared, because they were part of an oral culture that was never preserved in writing.

That’s not true. Some of these stories have been documented, written down, and published in books. Reading the book may not give you the full experience—the Mwindo Epic, for example, is traditionally performed by a bard accompanied by three percussionists. But confronting works of this sort, even on the page, is an essential part of a serious education.

For the same reason, I also included Sundiata, an epic from Mali. Both of these works are short and can be read in a single sitting.

Of course, there are other options. I might instead have assigned the Anansi tales from West Africa. The spider Anansi is the quintessential trickster, and thus is a counterpart to other characters from our reading list—for example, Homer’s Odysseus or Shakespeare’s Puck.

That’s the advantage of this kind of cross-border approach to culture. You see the power of the idea in the connections it makes across time and space.

In one of your rules for reading, you mention getting good advice on which books to read. Who are those sources for you? It seems like everyone wants to tell you what you should be reading, but everyone is not very smart, or wise. I ask this as I’m preparing a couple of deep-dive projects for myself.

I’m fortunate that my older brother is one of the most well-read and thoughtful people on the planet. He is seven years older than me, and from my childhood onward guided me to great books, music, visual arts, and films.

This provided not just an education, but an ongoing source of inspiration. People who have met Dana will know exactly what I’m saying.

Of course, I also had other great teachers, and took seriously what they told me. I recently dedicated my book Music to Raise the Dead to my teachers and mentors—and listed more than twenty of them on the opening page. I take these debts seriously.

What’s your current deep dive, if any?

I like to pick topics of interest, and then devote several months to intense study. Maybe I’ll read a dozen or so books on the subject. In recent years , I have done these deep dives into the origins of Romanticism, Shakespeare’s life and times, and the decline of the Roman empire. My next immersive reading project will probably focus on mysticism as a force in intellectual history.

I’m also pursuing a fun side project—reading works of fiction about chess. I just finished Stefan Zweig’s novel on the subject, and absolutely loved it. Next up is Nabokov’s novel The Luzhin Defense.


You can learn more about the 52-week humanities project at this link.

Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development

We study how international migrant income prospects affect long-run development in origin areas. We leverage the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis exchange rate shocks in a shift-share identification strategy across Philippine provinces. Initial migrant income shocks are magnified six-fold over time, increasing domestic income, education levels, migrant skills, and high-skilled migration. Remarkably, 74.9 percent of long-run income gains come from domestic rather than migrant income. Trade driven impacts of exchange rate shocks are orthogonal to effects via migrant income. A structural model reveals that 19.7 percent of long-run income gains stem from educational investments. International migration fosters broad economic development in origin communities.

That is from a recent AER piece by Gaurav Khanna, Emir Murathanoglu, Caroline Theoharides, and Dean Yang.  Here is a good thread on the piece.

The post Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

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Does this have implications for higher ed in particular?

Declining fertility and population loss pose significant challenges for state and federal local governments responsible for providing a range of services to citizens, including education, health care, and infrastructure. Indeed, many areas are already experiencing outright population decline, with roughly half of U.S. counties losing population between 2010 and 2020. This paper examines how shrinking and aging populations affect the operations and fiscal sustainability of state and local governments. Preliminary evidence presented in this paper suggests that scaling down educational services is considerably more difficult than scaling up. The estimated per-enrollee cost increases associated with a 10 percent enrollment decline are four times larger than the cost decreases associated with a 10 percent enrollment increase. Regions with contracting populations will face additional challenges as a smaller working-age population bears the burden of funding pensions and retiree health plans for larger aging cohorts. While lower fertility can create a short run fiscal dividend as local governments serve fewer children, that dividend will only be realized if state and local public officials make efficient retrenchment a priority.

From Jeffrey Clemens, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.  As I think JFV mentioned lately, we have not done enough thinking about what a society with low TFR really is going to look like after a while.

The post Does this have implications for higher ed in particular? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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There’s Another Big Reason Trump Is Stuck in the Gulf

You’ve certainly seen or heard about President Trump’s morning threat to destroy Iran’s civil energy and bridge infrastructure if the country doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. To quote him: “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH. Praise be to Allah.” (That’s not my arch summary. That’s a quote.) I will set aside that these would appear to constitute war crimes as going without saying. The man is careening from one day to the next from ‘the Strait doesn’t matter’ to (alternatively) ‘not our problem/it will open itself’ to ‘I give you fucking two days or you’ll be living in hell. Of course, then, he has then repeatedly “postponed” the day of destruction after encouraging talks with Iran leaders, talks which we then learn a few days later never occurred. But now he says, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran.” (This time I really, really mean it!)

In other words, talk like an insane person and carry a really small stick. He thinks these outbursts make him look stronger but each threat and retreat makes him look weaker and more clearly not in control of the situation. These are the words of a man who has spent a lifetime either TACOing or bullshitting his way out of messes suddenly coming up against an immovable object and at a moment when he already appears to be under some mix of extreme psychic strain and a more general senescent decompensation.

There is another part of this equation which I do not think has gotten sufficient focus. On March 24th The New York Times published an article which reported that the Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has told President Trump that he needs to finish the job, overthrow the Iranian regime or render it so feeble that it cannot threaten anyone – the second condition likely being impossible without achieving the first. As the Times put it (emphasis added), “Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government.”

Placing a story like this in the Times, is about as clear and as audacious a message a Saudi ruler can send to the US government without purchasing a nationwide 30 second ad campaign. I interpret this as him saying: just to be sure the message is getting through or in case you’re getting the message and not sharing it with your people. Trump whacked a hornets nest and MBS says now Trump needs to remove the nest. It can’t be left in place. He needs to overthrow or defang the Iranian regime. The status quo is unacceptable, whatever nonsense of the day Trump may be saying about the Strait not being his problem.

The common thinking in the US is that President Trump either blundered his way into this mess or was goaded into it by Benjamin Netanyahu. There’s a bit of truth to the second idea and a lot to the first. But it’s MBS and the leader of the UAE along with other gulf princes who are really Trump’s guys, much more than Benjamin Netanyahu. The way the Trump White House has interwoven US security, money and geopolitics with them runs much deeper. And, critically and relatedly, the Trump family’s business ties with them are infinitely deeper.

I’m not saying Trump won’t follow through on these threats, though I think he’s most likely to cave again. What it means is that this war is likely to last a lot longer than most people think. What it all comes down to is that I don’t think Trump can leave, even though he’s desperate to. That is the context in which we need to see these escalating rage tweets.

Faster Detection of Forest Loss

Satellite image of the Amazon rainforest showing dense green forest broken by brown patches of deforestation and infrastructure.
July 22, 2020

Tropical forests span 1.6 billion hectares (6.2 million square miles) of Earth. These ecosystems support a majority of the planet’s animal and plant species and contain plants that contribute to over a quarter of modern medicine. But over the past two decades, an average of 10 million hectares (nearly 40,000 square miles) of these forests—roughly the size of Kentucky—have been lost each year, according to the United Nations Environment Programme, affecting the ecosystems and communities that depend on them.

NASA scientists recently developed a new method for tracking tropical forest loss that delivers deforestation alerts more than three months faster than current methods. Although the technique was designed for the Amazon rainforest, data from a recently launched satellite are expected to expand its application globally.

Limits of Traditional Satellite Observations

Because tropical forests are so vast, local communities, conservationists, and policymakers rely on satellite data to manage them. Images acquired by satellites with optical sensors provide highly accurate alerts. For instance, the image above, acquired as part of the Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) project, shows newly cleared land in southwest Brazil in July 2020. Images from NASA-USGS Landsat satellites have revolutionized land management for over 50 years. In 1988, Brazil developed one of its first satellite-based monitoring systems using Landsat data, which remains in use today.

Though Landsat is an invaluable tool for Earth observation, it has a critical limitation: clouds. As an optical satellite, it relies on reflected light and cannot observe the ground through cloud cover. This creates data gaps that are especially limiting in tropical regions, which are cloudy most of the year. In some areas, months can pass without acquiring a cloud-free image, hindering efforts to track and curb unregulated forest clearing.

A Breakthrough Using Radar

To address Landsat’s cloud challenge, researchers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center tuned into a different wavelength. Led by Africa Flores-Anderson, associate program manager for NASA’s Ecosystem Conservation Program, the team piloted a system for the Amazon that combines existing satellite-based approaches with cutting-edge radar data. The approach builds upon a platform developed by the Cardille Lab at McGill University.

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) doesn’t require daylight or clear skies. To generate an image, SAR instruments beam radar signals at a surface and measure the signals that bounce back. SAR satellites use various ranges of radar wavelengths, or “bands,” to measure features on Earth’s surface. Over forests, the shorter wavelengths of the C-band scatter off treetops, but the longer wavelengths of the L-band can make it down to the ground.

This L-band is central to Flores-Anderson’s approach. Similar efforts favored C-band because it was more readily available than other SAR data. But when felled trees—along with their branches and leaves—are not removed right away, C-band’s shorter wavelengths are scattered by remaining debris, obscuring evidence of destruction. In contrast, L-band’s longer wavelengths can penetrate this material and reveal the damage. The new method is the first of its kind to automatically combine the user-friendly, intuitive images from Landsat and the consistent, detailed insights from L-band SAR data.

Figure showing before-and-after 2020 deforestation and three maps comparing detection timing using SAR, optical, and combined data.

These visuals show the benefit of combining optical images and L-band SAR data. The patch of deforested land in southwest Brazil (top row) is overlaid with colors that represent the month that deforestation was detected (bottom row). 

The left map shows that SAR detected two patches of forest loss in January (purple), three months earlier than optical sensors (middle map). The patches appear small because deforestation happens gradually, Flores-Anderson explained. At that point in January, only those areas had been cleared.

By April (green), optical sensors had detected forest loss across a wider area, shown in the middle map. These sensors collect images every few days, while the SAR data used in this study captured the area only once or twice a month. In this case, the optical satellites observed the change during a break in the cloud cover.

The map on the right shows how the new algorithm combines information from both types of observations. To increase accuracy, this algorithm confirms deforestation only if there are multiple, consecutive observations of forest loss. This view confirms deforestation as early as February, up to two months earlier than optical-only, and with much more certainty than the optical- or SAR-only approaches.

Faster Detection and a Global Future

On average, the new method for monitoring forests spots felled trees within 16 days with exceptional accuracy, nearly eliminating false alarms. These detections can identify deforestation in very cloudy regions up to 100 days sooner than optical-only systems.  

“In the tropics, it’s important to detect deforestation as soon as it occurs,” Flores-Anderson said. “If an image of a cleared forest isn’t available until the following year, the area may already be regrown, and deforestation will be missing from our data.”

For experts like Sylvia Wilson, the chief forest and climate scientist at Wilpa Capacity Development with nearly 20 years of global forest monitoring experience with the U.S. Geological Survey, adding L-band SAR to optical is a scientific game changer. “L-band SAR gives us the opportunity to see what optical doesn’t,” Wilson said. “But it’s not one sensor versus the other; the future is SAR plus optical.”

The NISAR (NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellite, launched in July 2025, will drastically increase the feasibility of systems like Flores-Anderson’s by providing more frequent and comprehensive L-band SAR data. L-band data has been relatively scarce, with limited images only available in a few areas like the Brazilian Amazon. Once more NISAR data become publicly available, they will provide free, global L-band SAR every 12 days. Flores-Anderson’s system is already prepared to incorporate this data.

“It doesn’t matter which sensor we get data from—whether it’s optical or SAR—it automatically adds to our model,” Flores-Anderson explained. “As more NISAR data become available, we will have more accurate, faster detection of change.”

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview, the Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) product, and model data provided by Flores-Anderson et al. Story by Lena Pransky (EarthRISE) with Jake Ramthun (EarthRISE) and Madeleine Gregory (Landsat Project Science Support).

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The post Faster Detection of Forest Loss appeared first on NASA Science.


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Roundup #80: All AI, all the time

I promise I’ll write something soon about the flaming, crashing disaster that is the Trump administration — and about other topics of interest. But before I do that, here’s a roundup full of short takes and stories about AI.

First, though, an episode of Econ 102! Officially the podcast is over, but we still occasionally do a reprise episode. This one, fittingly, is about AI biosecurity:

Anyway, here are six other interesting AI-related items:

1. Forecasting the effect of AI on growth

No one really knows what effect AI is going to have on economic growth, but maybe each “expert” knows a tiny, tiny bit. And maybe, if you combine all of those weak signals, you can get some actual information about the economic effects of AI.

That’s the idea behind a new study by the Forecasting Research Institute. They survey a whole bunch of different people about what they think AI’s capabilities will be in the future, and what that implies for economic growth. Specifically, the groups they survey are:

  • Economists

  • AI experts

  • Superforecasters

  • The general public

The results are kind of surprising, actually:

Forecasting Research Institute
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
There is widespread disagreement over the impact that AI will—or won’t—have on the U.S. economy: some prominent voices warn of a transformative upheaval and large-scale job losses, while others predict modest boosts to productivity at best. But there has been little work attempting to systematically understand expert views on the economic impacts of AI…
Read more

For one thing, all the groups have about the same forecasts for AI capabilities by 2030:

This looks like a forecast of modest progress, but it’s not. The “moderate” scenario here would have AI able to write high-quality novels, handle coding tasks that would take humans five days, create semi-autonomous labs, and use robots to perform basic household tasks. So basically, every group of forecasters in this survey thinks stunning AI progress is likely over the next few years.

And yet of all the groups, only the AI experts predict a major growth acceleration in any of these scenarios — and even then, it’s only an acceleration to 4 or 5 percent, not to the 10 or 20 percent scenarios that some people have thrown around:

Why do economists think that even near-godlike AI wouldn’t translate into fast growth? The Forecasting Research Institute lists some of their reasons:

Some economists argued that AI productivity gains would not be evenly distributed across all sectors, particularly where human labor is a bottleneck. Others pointed out that with other general-purpose technologies (electrification, automobiles, personal computers), there were multi-decade lags between widespread implementation and productivity improvements. Part of this delay is attributed to a shift in capital away from labor and toward compute, data centers, APIs, and so on, which would not manifest as an increase in GDP until productivity improvements set in…

Some economists expected demographic decline and geopolitical instability to offset some of the GDP boost from AI progress…Some economists argued that constraints on energy and chip supply, data center build times, and other commodities put a cap on the upper limit of GDP growth…Some economists argued that tail risks…included existential risks from AI, societal unrest or collapse, and war.

It’s likely that the AI experts are also thinking about these bottlenecks and frictions, or something like them, which is why their most optimistic scenario is 5.3% growth — fast, but still significantly slower than India is growing now.

But in fact, I think there must be more to the story here. Basically, none of these groups thinks that any amount of AI capabilities will enable economic take-off. To me, that suggests that they’re thinking — perhaps subconsciously — about something more than just friction and slow adoption.

One possibility — which I should write about more — is that people suspect that humanity is getting satisfied, at least in the developed countries, and that the amount of new valuable things that even a godlike AI could create for us is limited by our inability to desire more goods and services.

I should think about this more.

2. Will someone vibe-code the doomsday virus?

I’m very optimistic about many of the effects of AI, especially on science and politics. But as regular Noahpinion readers know, I’m pretty worried about AI-enabled bioterrorism (and I think an increasing number of other people are too). I’m worried that some nihilistic, depressed teenager could tell a jailbroken version of Claude Code to make him a doomsday virus, and that the AI would actually go and do it for him. We now live in a world where researchers can use AI to design new, functional viruses and have them sent in the mail. That’s an empowered world, but a terrifying one as well.

Ever since I wrote a post about that danger, I’ve been talking to biosecurity experts and trying to get a better handle on how justified my fears are. One of the experts I talked to, Abhishaike Mahajan, was in the middle of writing a long post about biosecurity in the age of AI. He has since finished the post:

Owl Posting
Reasons to be pessimistic (and optimistic) on the future of biosecurity
Note: this essay required conversations with a lot of people. I’d like to thank Patrick Boyle (ex-CSO of Ginkgo Bioworks), Harmon Bhasin (founder of a stealth biosecurity startup), Bryan Lehrer (ex-Blueprint Biosecurity), Theia Vogel (ex-SecureDNA), Jacob Swett…
Read more

You should read the whole post, but basically, he offers several reasons not to panic. First, he argues that it’s inherently very hard for even an extremely powerful AI to make an effective bioweapon on the first try. This is because there are just too many unknowns about how any newly created virus will behave in the real world, so there’s no way to know you have a doomsday virus until you release it.

I’m skeptical of this line of argument. Instead of just making one doomsday virus you can make 100 candidates and release them all. Doomsday itself is the field experiment, and you can run a lot of experiments at once. Much better bio simulation tools will probably cut down the number of candidates you need to create in order to stumble on one that works.

Abhishaike also argues that countermeasures — vaccines, antivirals, and defenses like far-UV light (which basically works on all viruses) will improve at a rapid clip. I believe this, but I’m not so comforted. Drawing on the experience of Covid, I think it’ll take a lot of time to deploy these countermeasures. A truly well-engineered doomsday virus will kill us long before we can distribute the cure or give everyone a UV zapper. And as Abhishaike points out, it’s likely that the U.S. will not proactively prepare for future pandemic threats, but merely react to them when they occur.

So while I think Abhishaike’s post is excellent and deserves a thorough read-through, I think he might still be underrating the severity of the threat.

3. Cybersecurity apocalypse?

How does the world know how much money you have? There are a bunch of computers that store your money as a series of numbers — how many dollars are in your checking account, how many shares of Apple stock are in your portfolio, and so on. Banks and other financial institutions have state-of-the-art computers and huge teams of brilliant software engineers to turn their electronic records into a fortress.

But AI is getting really, really good at hacking. Lyptus Research writes:

We release a new application of the METR time-horizon methodology to offensive cybersecurity, grounded in a new human expert study with 10 professional security practitioners…Offensive cyber capability has been doubling every 9.8 months since 2019. Accelerating to every 5.7 months on a 2024+ fit. Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.3 Codex sit well above both trendlines again, reaching 50% success on tasks that take human experts ~3 hours.

Right now, AI companies are white-hatting — using their AI’s newfound hacking powers to help companies improve their cybersecurity. But what happens when less scrupulous actors get their hands on jailbroken versions of Claude Code and Codex?

What happens if AI agents ever allow bad actors to break into banks at will? If all records of personal wealth were erased in a cyberattack, what could banks or the government even do? A whole lot of people might just instantly see their life’s savings transferred into a hacker’s bank account.

And as if that weren’t enough to worry about, recent advances in quantum computing put cybersecurity in an even more perilous state. Here’s Scott Aaronson:

For those of you who haven’t seen, there were actually two “bombshell” QC announcements this week. One, from Caltech, including friend-of-the-blog John Preskill, showed how to do quantum fault-tolerance with lower overhead than was previously known, by using high-rate codes, which could work for example in neutral-atom architectures (or possibly other architectures that allow nonlocal operations, like trapped ions). The second bombshell, from Google, gave a lower-overhead implementation of Shor’s algorithm to break 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography…

When I got an early heads-up about these results…I thought of Frisch and Peierls, calculating how much U-235 was needed for a chain reaction in 1940, but not publishing it, even though the latest results on nuclear fission had been openly published just the year prior…But I got strong pushback on that analogy from the cryptography and cybersecurity people who I most respect. They said…[I]f publishing [results like these] causes people still using quantum-vulnerable systems to crap their pants … well, maybe that’s what needs to happen right now.

Not being a cybersecurity expert, I’m not qualified to assess how worrying these developments are. But they seem quite worrying. The entire modern world runs on cybersecurity — if there’s a general failure in the methods we now use to keep information secure, all of society is in deep trouble. So this is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

4. The end of pseudonymity?

When I became a blogger, I made a conscious decision to post only under my own name. I reasoned that at some point, text analysis technology would get good enough where it would be able to identify (“dox”) any pseudonymous account I made. Fifteen years later, I’m anticipating vindication. This is from a new paper by Lermen et al.:

We show that large language models can be used to perform at-scale deanonymization. With full Internet access, our agent can re-identify Hacker News users and Anthropic Interviewer participants at high precision, given pseudonymous online profiles and conversations alone, matching what would take hours for a dedicated human investigator. …LLM-based methods substantially outperform classical baselines, achieving up to 68% recall at 90% precision compared to near 0% for the best non-LLM method. Our results show that the practical obscurity protecting pseudonymous users online no longer holds and that threat models for online privacy need to be reconsidered.

Soon, anyone who disagrees with your pseudonymous alt account, or is even just annoyed with you, will be able to sic an LLM on your account and dox it — if you’ve written online anywhere under your real name. If you’ve only written pseudonymously, you’re probably still safe.

The impending end of pseudonymity — or at least, its significant diminution — has the potential to transform the internet. Pseudonymity is obviously linked to toxic content, because people post stuff under a pseudonym that’s too aggressive or inappropriate to post under their real name.

We might also get a decrease in cancel culture, since pseudonymous accusations and whistleblowers will not be safe from retaliation. There will probably be less honest discussion and less total information on the internet, as people become afraid to have many discussions under their real names.

Less pseudonymity might also close off an important social and psychological safety valve — especially for Japanese people, who tend to use pseudonymous X accounts as a way to express feelings that they’re afraid to air out in public.

In any case, it’s going to get weird.

5. Will AI quants eat the economy?

At one point in Charles Stross’ Accelerando, AI finance quants turn the entire inner solar system into compute to power their financialized online economy — thus driving everyone else to the edges of the solar system.

That’s a little bit over the top, but it’s worth thinking about what happens if and when AI gets deployed in large quantities for adversarial economic activities like quant trading.

Most use cases that people think of with regards to AI are productive. We expect AI to accelerate science, do our coding for us, and so on. A few of the AI use cases we imagine are criminal — we worry about bioterrorism, cyber crime, and so on. But relatively few people talk about what happens if and when AI gets deployed en masse for rent-seeking — i.e. for the redistribution of income by legal means.

A lot of people suspect that a lot of what goes on in quant trading is rent-seeking — a bunch of traders trying to fake each other out or beat each other to the punch without creating economic value. In fact, there are models of how that can happen — my favorite is Hirshleifer (1971). In that paper, Hirshleifer shows how when traders compete to learn something that’s eventually going to become public knowledge automatically, they end up wasting resources on a zero-sum game.1

Quant traders have always used AI a lot, even before the rise of generative AI. But it seems possible that the rise of powerful AI agents and reasoning models will lead to an explosion of spending on quant trading. And if what those trading algorithms are doing is just trying to beat each other to the punch by a nanosecond, a lot of society’s resources — compute, electricity, and so on — will be going to waste.

Frustratingly, I don’t know of a good general result on how much of society’s resources could be wasted like this. But when I play around with some simple examples, it’s clear that the potential waste is large. AI quant trading might not turn the inner solar system into computronium, but it seems like it could still be a giant waste.

So I’m a little nervous when I see stories like this one, alleging that DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis tried to build an AI-powered quant hedge fund inside Google. Quant trading is a very natural way to use AI to make tons and tons of money, but if that becomes too big a part of what AI does, people will get mad at the technology.

6. Are people using AI less at work?

By most measures, AI is being adopted faster than any technology in recorded history. It’s difficult to read the news without seeing stories about how AI is conquering the business world. So it’s pretty notable whenever there’s a data point that shows AI not being rapidly adopted.

In fact, there are now a few such data points. Hartley et al. are maintaining an ongoing survey of American workers, in which they ask who’s using generative AI at work. For a while, their survey showed a rapid increase in adoption. But over the last year, they find that adoption has actually fallen:

One survey might be a blip, or there might be a problem with the way the questions are being asked. But The Economist reports that a few other measures are showing either a slowdown or a drop in AI use at work:

Researchers at the Census Bureau ask firms if they have used artificial intelligence “in producing goods and services” in the past two weeks. Recently, we estimate, the employment-weighted share of Americans using AI at work has fallen by a percentage point, and now sits at 11%…Adoption has fallen sharply at the largest businesses, those employing over 250 people…

A tracker by Alex Bick of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis and colleagues revealed that, in August 2024, 12.1% of working-age adults used generative AI every day at work. A year later 12.6% did. Ramp, a fintech firm, finds that in early 2025 AI use soared at American firms to 40%, before levelling off. The growth in adoption really does seem to be slowing.

What’s going on here? The Economist suggests several explanations — disappointing productivity effects, difficulty incorporating AI into existing workflows, economic uncertainty, and so on.

But if this trend is real, there are reasons to think it won’t last. First of all, most of this data is from before the rise of reliable AI agents, which really just came on the scene last December. Now that AI is a lot more than just a chatbot, it’s probably a good bet that more companies are going to find uses for it.

Also, once entrepreneurs start figuring out ways to build new business models and workflows, instead of trying to shoehorn the new tech into existing models and processes, we should see an explosion of AI-enabled productivity, just like we did with previous general-purpose technologies.

But for now, the hints of a plateau in industrial chatbot usage are worth keeping an eye on.


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Imagine that the value of Apple’s earnings will become public in a week, but that traders are spending a ton of money figuring out Apple’s earnings before they become public, so they can trade on the knowledge and make profit. That’s wasted effort; it would be better for society if everyone just waited until the earnings were announced.

In the Atmosphere

Stacked Hills 1

The mascot of ATmosphereConf is a goose, accompanied by the motto we can just do things. I thought about this line often while I was in Vancouver for the event. Everyone was active: writing, managing communities, building side projects or businesses on Bluesky, and building Bluesky itself. The energy was fertile and optimistic. Even deep critiques, like Erin Kissane's beautiful Landslide or Blaine Cook's Software Ecologies, had hope that this community and technology could 'fix' the social internet.

The other refrain of the conference was that Meta, Google, TikTok, and other centralized social platforms have failed, and the AT Protocol could be the key to their replacements. From my seat, the need to decentralize social media is obvious enough that I don't write about it, and the only real question is which social, financial, and technology structure is actually capable of succeeding. There have been a lot of attempts to unseat Facebook, and most have run out of cash, gotten acquired, or lost steam.

As I mentioned in my last post about the AT Protocol, I've been around long enough to have tried previous attempts to decentralize the web and defeat the giants. I've also lived through a prior wave of open source optimism and seen how it can get weird.[1] Being amongst this relatively new and energetic community gave me renewed hope for the creative and weird parts of the web, but it also made me wonder where this is all going.

Who is in this community?

Stacked Hills 2

The people who attended were more far more diverse across multiple axes than I'd ever seen at a large tech-related event. To many people on the fringes, the "blue" in Bluesky is for liberal, and as far as I could tell it was a thoroughly left-wing culture, defined by inclusivity and respect.

It was also extremely dense with accomplished thinkers and programmers, like Schuyler Erle, who invented a lot of web mapping technology, Paul Syverson, who invented Onion Routing, Mike McCue, who worked on Netscape Navigator, and Dan Abramov, who co-created Redux and worked on React. Smart people like this thing.

It also had a lot of people from specific sub-communities and people who seemed like they were from an organizing background.

How did everyone justify the trip to Vancouver, though?

Some people were operating companies built on or with AT Protocol: Germ, Leaflet, Graze, Fedica, BlackSky, Stream.place, and Surf. (not an exhaustive list)

Then there were people working on side projects, many of which they want to devote full-time energy to, like Tiny Town, Sill, and Cartridge.

Then others were affiliated with academia or non-profits, like A New Social or New Public. And some folks were just in Vancouver so it was a pretty easy trip.

Echoes of an earlier wave

Stacked Hills 3

Everything about the AT Protocol community is so new, small, personal, and altruistic.

Individual people are running essential infrastructure in their free time: for instance, this talk by fig, how how they're building incredible services on a shoestring budget, largely as a solo effort. There are a bunch of people like this in the community, maintaining high-quality SDKs, services, and more that everyone else builds on.

The companies are also nascent. There are a few companies that pivoted into working with Bluesky, like Fedica, and have a business plan figured out. But out of the companies built on AT Protocol from the start, most of them are at the seed stage or earlier, and some of the talks at the conference probably shared material with investor pitch decks. One of the few companies that had raised money, Graze, had this to say in a fantastic talk:

The first, and most important, is that fundraising is exceptionaly difficult in the current environment in general, and profoundly difficult with social media [...] AT Proto is not growing exponentially which means functionally it is a non-starter for VC investment [...] The AI hype cycle has all but consumed available oxygen that would otherwise remain. On top of that, there's a common misconception that social is 'solved' [...] honestly do not mention AT Proto, at least until it goes exponential again.

I also noticed that there's a very strong movement from the community to avoid traditional corporate formats and funding mechanisms.

A lot of projects are following Bluesky's lead in forming as benefit corporations. The PBC structure is interesting - a few companies with that structure have gone public, like Planet labs and Allbirds. As far as I can tell though, the actual power of the designation has never been tested in court - the idea is that companies with the PBC format have a specific purpose which is part of their charter and if they don't stick to it and if 2% of shareholders want to sue, they can be sued for it. The purpose of Planet Labs is "to accelerate humanity toward a more sustainable, secure, and prosperous world, by illuminating environmental and social change" and the purpose of Bluesky is "to develop and drive large-scale adoption of technologies for open and decentralized public conversation" so I'm not sure that there's much legal teeth to this idea. It is a very nice gesture though. Germ and Graze are both PBCs.

There are also a lot of projects trying to avoid the profit-driven company format entirely. Bridgy Fed, a service that I happily use to syndicate my Mastodon posts to Bluesky, is backed by a non-profit funded by its community and creators (one of whom co-created Google App Engine). Roundabout, another AT Protocol-based product, is under the non-profit New Public. Even the Knight Foundation backed Bluesky itself.

Because I have an irrepressible need to know these things, here's a quick primer in where this money comes from:

There aren't any huge surprises in there: big amounts of money tend to come from people who have a lot of money, and these are mostly innocuous funders.

But what about AI?

Stacked Hills 5

What about AI. Everything is about AI now.

Most of the sessions that I attended didn't mention AI. Nevertheless, I think that AI is one of the ingredients for how this community is building so fast: during a panel of designers, dame said that they heavily use LLMs to build Anisota, their moth-themed social media interface, and many of the demos had a bit of LLM odor to them. There a few moments of full AI-optimism, like Cameron's talk about void, his chatbot 'with a memory', and Alex Komoroske talking about the Resonant Computing Manifesto and saying that AI could be 'bigger than the printing press.'

I loved that it wasn't a conference about AI. I'm not an AI-hater or an AI-doomer. I'm bored to tears by the discourse. I don't want to hear another Stanford CS grad talk about the big thoughts they had the first time in their lives that they thought about the theory of mind.

I don't care about which historical technology you want to compare it to or whether junior programmers or senior programmers or designers or managers are going to come out on top or on bottom. I don't care about the new way someone found to run 8 agents at the same time bossing each other around. When products add a magic chatbox as the new way to do everything, I don't find it exciting. It's all just so boring, monotonous, derivative, uncreative, and hype-driven.

Yes, it's important and it'll change the world. But vanishingly few people have anything to say about it.


That said, Bluesky announced Attie during the conference, and AI vibecoding interface / chatbot which allows people to build custom interfaces and feeds for the AT Protocol. You ask it to create a feed about sports, and it writes some filtering code and queries the lexicons and builds it for you.

This is at the intersection of two things I don't really care about: 'vibecoding' and 'custom feeds for discovery.' It's a product for someone else - probably a lot of people, because algorithmic discovery is a hard expectation of people raised on TikTok who expect perfectly curated content.

This launch generated a lot of controversy for roughly two reasons.

The first is obvious: it's AI, and a lot of people strongly dislike AI. Many, many people blocked the Attie account in protest, and there's a flare-up of fears around AI training on Bluesky data again. Cleverly, I think, Attie is intentionally not something that would ever train on Bluesky data and it also never generates content for users, so it isn't a slop machine.[2]

The other is that this feature definitely stomps on or near much smaller efforts from people and companies in the community. That means Graze, Surf, Skyfeed, Cosmik's Hyperfeed, and I'm sure many others. Custom feeds quickly became the most crowded and competitive space in the Atmosphere.

I think that Trezy's blog post about this is a great, critical explanation of what's going on and what the risks are:

Then there's the question of collateral damage. Leaflet just announced a pro subscription. The standard.site coalition has been building something genuinely collaborative across multiple teams. Watching that presentation, it felt like any of us could be next.

I think he has a strong point: Bluesky PBC is in a tough position, both fighting for relevance as a social media company and trying to foster a community of open source projects and small companies. A lot of the next features that Bluesky might introduce are already things being worked on by small companies. What should they do - acquire them, compete with them, defer to them? Trezy is right that they should at least coordinate with them.

The money thing. The growth thing.

What the community has right now is a tremendous amount of energy, creativity, and good vibes, but pretty dim prospects for business. This can turn around in an instant - venture capitalists are trend-followers above all, and one good success story becomes everyone else's pitch. But right now, the amounts raised by companies in the ecosystem are tiny. Rudy quoted $6.2k MRR for BlackSky, which is a huge achievement, but to bring the full team of six on full-time would need to quadruple at least. Graze's $1M funding round is pretty small by most definitions.

But underneath that is the usage problem. None of the charts of Bluesky adoption look good. It's a niche community that loves to use new applications from the community. Bluesky has, by one measure, around 5 million active users in comparison to Threads claiming 400 million active users. Nothing of importance has ever been posted to Threads, the gas-leak social network, but nevertheless.

My guess is that algorithmic feeds, which segue into communities on Bluesky, could tilt the curve up and make Bluesky palatable for users who don't expect to curate their social media, but also don't want a firehose of all content. Or maybe the next big thing is live events on Bluesky, taking some inspiration from the success of streaming and making the platform more useful for sports and stuff.

Maybe solving the user-growth problem solves the venture capital problem, which solves the funding problem for startups, and that's good for the community in the end.

Is it really that bad for a social network to have five million devoted users instead of four hundred million? It's definitely not enough for Bluesky-the-company to succeed, and Bluesky accounts being a niche thing makes the pitch for AT Protocol apps a lot harder. "Sign in with your internet handle" isn't as compelling if most people don't have one. Compare to just signing in with a Google, Apple, or GitHub account, and the AT Protocol option is just worse for most people.

That said, Bluesky at its current size - and the AT Protocol community at its current size - is perfectly fine? For all of the worries about the network 'dying,' just having linear user growth during a period in which the app changes and experiments with new features isn't the end of the world. Popularity isn't everything.

Being there

In between all of the big thoughts, the rest of it was lovely. Everyone was incredibly friendly and welcoming, the venue had actual good vegan food, and on the mornings I ran the Salish Trail, through second-growth forests of hemlock and douglas firs. I skipped the parties in Vancouver to conserve my social batteries, which might've been a double-good idea because a lot of people got COVID, and small contained spaces probably didn't help.

The experience filled me with optimism and excitement. This is an early stage for this community, and it could turn out a whole bunch of ways. I hope that we look back on these years as the the time when a new, better internet was being born. It could work out.


  1. I'm talking about Mapbox, mostly. We built everything in the open, including some really core technology that was exceptionally difficult to figure out. And it ended up being really weird: a bunch of hyperscalers started to run Mapbox tech and compete with the company, which led Mapbox to change the license for their main map rendering technology, which alienated the open source community and led to a hard fork which is funded mostly by Microsoft and a few big companies. This experience left me with some complicated feelings. ↩�

  2. Whether this hatred is deserved is up for debate, but I think that many people have only experienced bad aspects of AI - low quality content, propaganda, threats of job losses. At the same time, the leaders of major AI companies don't do themselves any favors in terms of selling their technology the public. Suno's CEO saying "it's not really enjoyable to make music now" is what I think of when I think about this. Some of these people truly do not get it, with 'it' meaning any sense of enjoyment or satisfaction about anything. I do think in this instance Bluesky really was thoughtful about making an AI thing that doesn't create slop or train on user data. ↩�

Sunday 5 April 1663

(Lord’s day). Up and spent the morning, till the Barber came, in reading in my chamber part of Osborne’s Advice to his Son (which I shall not never enough admire for sense and language), and being by and by trimmed, to Church, myself, wife, Ashwell, &c. Home to dinner, it raining, while that was prepared to my office to read over my vows with great affection and to very good purpose. So to dinner, and very well pleased with it.

Then to church again, where a simple bawling young Scot preached.

So home to my office alone till dark, reading some papers of my old navy precedents, and so home to supper, and, after some pleasant talk, my wife, Ashwell, and I to bed.

Read the annotations

April 4, 2026

On Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired the U.S. Army chief of staff, General Randy George, in a struggle to exert his will over the career officers in the service. On Friday at 8:15 p.m., the official social media account of the Joint Staff, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Vice Chairman appeared to express their opinion of the firing when they posted: “On behalf of the Joint Force and the Joint Chiefs, we extend our deepest gratitude to Chief of Staff of the Army, General Randy George, for his decades of steadfast service to our nation. Since 1988, General George and his family have consistently answered the nation’s call with honor and dedication. We are profoundly thankful to General George and his wife, Patty, for their many years of sacrifice and devotion to those who serve. As they graduate from this distinguished chapter of service and look toward the future, we wish them both continued happiness and success in all that lies ahead.”

On Friday, Iranians shot down a U.S. F-15E fighter jet over Iran. U.S. forces quickly rescued the pilot of the jet, but the second crew member, a weapons system officer, was not rescued until late today, with the news breaking just minutes before midnight.

Iranians also hit a U.S. A-10 Warthog aircraft, a ground-attack plane designed for close support of ground troops, as it was engaging in the search. Its pilot ejected and was rescued. A helicopter also engaged in search and rescue was hit by small-arms fire that injured crew members, but it landed safely outside Iran.

The strikes came two days after Trump told the American people that the U.S. military had “beaten and completely decimated Iran,” that “[t]hey have no anti-aircraft equipment,” and that “[t]heir radar is 100% annihilated. We are unstoppable as a military force.” Meanwhile, Iranian TV showed people heading into the mountains to find the airman.

Dan De Luce, Courtney Kube, and Gordon Lubold of NBC News identified the last time an American plane was shot down by enemy fire as 2003, with a crash near Baghdad International Airport in Iraq. The pilot ejected safely and was rescued.

The social media accounts of the defense secretary and of U.S. Central Command went silent after Thursday night. Trump did not speak to the public about the missing airman. When the White House wants to tell the press there will be no more public information released that day, it “calls a lid” so journalists will stop waiting for news. The White House called a lid yesterday at 4:12 p.m., and the president did not go to Mar-a-Lago, as he has been in the habit of doing on the weekends. Trump did not appear at all today, and the White House called a lid at 11:08 a.m.

But Trump did post on social media. Yesterday, while the search for the airman was underway, his account posted: “With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A ‘GUSHER’ FOR THE WORLD??? President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

At 10:05 this morning, Trump posted: “Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out—48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Economist Paul Krugman noted today that this post didn’t sound like Trump. His speech on Wednesday was low energy and delivered in a monotone. It suggested Trump was abandoning the idea of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and handing off the problem to other countries. Now he is threatening to “reign”—he meant “rain”—down “all Hell” on Iran to get it to restore the conditions that existed before he attacked. And then, as Krugman noted, he added “Glory be to GOD!” which sounds a lot more like Hegseth’s Christian holy war language than Trump’s.

Krugman says, “[I]t sounds like he’s…going to try and do something truly awful in an attempt to somehow redeem himself and the situation” in Iran.

Michael R. Gordon and Alexander Ward of the Wall Street Journal reported today that Trump’s aides have been telling him Iran’s civilian infrastructure is a legitimate wartime target, despite the understanding among experts that such attacks are illegal. The journalists say Hegseth has embraced the aides’ argument that attacking infrastructure would make it more difficult for Iran to transfer the materials they need to develop nuclear weapons. A White House official added that destroying electric plants could foment civil unrest, which would in turn make it more difficult to produce a nuclear weapon.

Ryan Goodman of Just Security commented: “That would be an F on a bar exam.” He observed, “This isn’t legal analysis. It’s idiocy.”

Reuters reported today that Israel is prepared to attack Iranian energy facilities but is waiting for the U.S. to agree.

Tonight the White House released the president’s schedule for tomorrow, Easter Sunday. It has a scheduled 8:00 a.m. “Executive Time” and a 7:00 p.m. family Easter dinner. He has no scheduled public appearances.

Notes:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hegseth-has-asked-us-army-chief-staff-step-down-cbs-news-reports-2026-04-02/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2k1dgz142o

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-said-iran-was-decimated-american-f-15e-fighter-jet-was-shot-rcna266611

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/139529/a-10-crashes-in-baghdad/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/04/us-f15-shot-down-iran-missing/

https://substack.com/@paulkrugman/p-193185597

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/top-aides-advise-trump-blasting-irans-infrastructure-is-fair-game-8b6aec90

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-preparing-attacks-iranian-energy-sites-awaits-us-green-light-official-2026-04-04/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/04/us-pilot-rescue-iran-f15-crash/

X:

status/2040450767186694595

WHPressPool/status/2040254442793029815

WHPressPool/status/2040180688805376267

thejointstaff/status/2039859315243450772

WHPressPool/status/2040614743589658701

Bluesky:

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Artemis astronauts send down Easter message, prep for lunar fly around Monday

Artemis 2 commander Reid Wiseman gazes out of an Orion spacecraft cabin window, looking back at Earth, as the crew travels towards the Moon. Image: NASA.

Taking time out to send Easter greetings down to Earth, the four Artemis 2 astronauts closed in on the moon Sunday, already seeing unexpected detail on the surface and giving scientists a taste of things to come during a pass over the lunar far side Monday evening.

Artemis 2 commander Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover and Christina Koch also presented “astronaut wings” to Canadian crewmate Jeremy Hansen, making his first space flight, before getting down to work carrying out planned tests of new Artemis pressure suits.

But first, Koch passed along Easter greetings to flight controllers, saying “we wanted to take a minute to commemorate the holiday.”

“This time of year is something that many religions and many cultures hold dear,” she said. “It’s a time of emotions such as joy, as well as solemnness, honoring what’s going on both in our world and in our religious beliefs.

“Another aspect of that is our family tradition. And I know for me, if I was on the Earth right now, I would be with my family in Houston and we would be hiding confetti eggs in the backyard and watching two very sweet little girls go try to find them.”

She said the crew hid “a few eggs around the cabin” to mark the occasion. “They were the dehydrated scrambled egg variety,” she added, “but we’re all pretty happy with them.”

Hansen said that “no matter your faith or religion, for me the teachings of Jesus were always a very simple truth, of love, universal love, love yourself and love others.”

The two major goals of the Artemis 2 flight are to thoroughly test the Orion moonship and to work through the procedures and techniques needed to safely guide future crews to the moon. The Artemis 2 crew also plans a full agenda of science observations when they pass behind the moon’s far side Monday afternoon and evening.

Looking at the moon overnight Saturday, Koch told flight controllers “the moon we are looking at is not the moon you see from Earth,” adding that even some 75,000 miles from their target, they could easily discern topology and subtle differences in brightness.

She said Glover was “absolutely mesmerized” by a vast basin where “you can actually see the terrain. It’s not an albedo change, it’s not shadows. You can actually just tell that they are terrain features of the multi-rigged crater there.”

Glover initially thought the structure was Mare Orientale, or “Eastern Sea,” a high-priority target that straddles the terminator separating the side of the moon facing Earth and the normally unseen far side.

Jacki Mahaffey in mission control replied that “we think based on your description of the basin that you saw, that is (Mare) Imbrium.”

“Yes, that sounds right,” Koch agreed. “I’ve never noticed that Imbrium has such a distinctive high albedo ring defining it. Also worth mentioning, we do apparently have a full moon. We can’t detect any terminator at all. It looks like full limb all the way around.”

Mare Imbrium, or the “Sea of Rain,” has a diameter of 710 miles, one of the moon’s largest “seas,” or maria, formed by a massive impact event several billion years ago. It is surrounded by mountains that were formed by the impact.

Artemis 2 commander Reid Wiseman agreed the view of the moon was spectacular, even at a great distance.

“I’m not one for hyperbole, but it’s the only thing I could come up with just seeing (the crater) Tycho, there’s mountains to the north, you can see Copernicus … it’s just everything from the training, but in three dimensions and absolutely unbelievable. This is incredible.”

“Moon joy,” replied Mahaffey.

Wiseman, Glover, Koch and Hansen were launched Wednesday and, after spending a full day checking out the Orion spacecraft, the ship left Earth orbit Thursday and headed for the moon.

Overnight Saturday, Koch said the crew had switched from measuring their increasing distance from Earth to marking the decreasing distance to the moon. At the time she spoke, the Orion spacecraft was 76,362 nautical miles from the moon and 168,000 miles from Earth.

Before going to bed, the astronauts were told engineers had been able to restore Orion’s toilet to normal operation after trouble earlier dumping stored urine overboard.

“At this time you are go for all types of uses of the toilet,” mission control radioed.

“And the crew rejoices!” Koch said. “Thank you!

The crew began Easter Sunday in space with a wakeup call featuring CeeLo Green’s “Working Class Heroes” and a recorded message from retired astronaut Charlie Duke.

“Hello Reid, Victor, Christina and Jeremy. This is Apollo 16 astronaut Charlie Duke,” he radioed. “John Young and I landed on the moon in 1972 in a lunar module we named Orion. I’m glad to see a different kind of Orion helping return humans to the moon.

“Thanks to you and the whole team on the ground for building a family. I pray it reminds you that we in America and all of the world are cheering you on. Thanks to you and the whole team on the ground for building on our Apollo legacy with Artemis. Godspeed and safe travels home.”

The crew’s primary objective Sunday was to work with their bright orange pressure suits, designed to keep an astronaut alive for more than six days if their spacecraft lost air pressure or suffered some other sort of catastrophic failure.

Wiseman and his crewmates planned to put on their suits in the cramped confines of the Orion capsule to give flight controllers a better idea of how fast they can be donned in an emergency.

They planned to pressurize the suits, practice getting into and out of their seats while suited, assess their ability to move about and to eat and drink using dispensers in the suit’s helmet.

Just after midnight, the Orion capsule was expected to coast into the moon’s “sphere of influence,” where lunar gravity will begin exerting more of a pull on the spacecraft than Earth’s.

The astronauts will reach a distance of 248,655 miles from Earth at 1:56 p.m. Monday, passing a record set by the crew of Apollo 13 in 1970. Wiseman and company will fly behind the moon and out of contact with Earth for about 40 minutes starting at 6:47 p.m. Monday.

While out of contact, the crew will pass within about 4,070 miles of the lunar surface at close approach and set a new distance record of 252,760 miles three minutes later. They’ll fly back into contact with Earth at 7:27 p.m.

But they will be able to observe far side features well before and after passing directly behind the moon and even witness a solar eclipse as the moon passes in front of the sun from their perspective.

“We have amazing camera data from decades of orbiting spacecraft,” said Kelsey Young, a member of the Artemis lunar science team.

“However, the human eye, especially when it’s connected to a well-trained brain — which I assure you these four people have — are capable of in the blink of an eye making nuanced color observations that Apollo observations told us can tell us something scientifically.”

Links 4/5/26

Links for you. Science:

David Botstein, Gene-Mapping Pioneer, Dies at 83
Scientists Get a Glimpse of How New Pandemics Are Made
Study finds rising resistance to a last-resort antibiotic in Africa
Convergent extreme reductive evolution in ancient planthopper symbioses
Cost-of-living crisis pushing PhD students to get second incomes, finds Nature poll
Archaeologists Unearth 43,000 Ancient Egyptian Receipts, Notes, and ‘To Do’ Lists

Other:

Tucker Carlson calls pro-Hitler Oswald Mosley one of Britain’s ‘great war heroes’ (the 43 Group, if they were still around, would disagree)
Jack Dorsey Is A Pointless Dipshit. Jack Dorsey continually demonstrates he is, at best, oblivious to his role in enabling the authoritarian dismantling of democracy and informed consensus. Ethical tech publications should stop mythologizing the unremarkable extraction class.
Democrats Score Stunning Victory in District Trump Won Easily in 2024
Why Jimmy Cagney spoke better Yiddish than just about any other actor in Hollywood
Multiple Republicans in Congress post openly anti-Muslim statements
Grandmother jailed for 6 months after AI error linked her to a crime in a state she had never even visited, lawyers say
A Brief History of America’s Involvement in Iran
Defense workers’ morale has plunged under Trump, survey finds
Crypto, AI, and AIPAC Are Corrupting Democratic Primaries
The AI Data Center Boom Looks a Lot Like the Railroad Bubble
Kristi Noem Bought 11 Warehouses to Use as ICE Jails. Now What?
WHY ARE WE ATTACKING IRAN? SO TRUMP CAN BE JOHN BARRON AGAIN.
The Quietest Government Shutdown
Virginia Is Poised to Ban ICE Contracts, Unless the Feds Agree to Obey the Law. No One Expects Them to.
Work from Home and Fertility
A top FEMA official has history of violent rhetoric and said he once teleported to Waffle House
Homeless and stateless: Deportees from U.S. are trapped in Mexico
Polly Wants a Better Argument. The “Stochastic Parrot” Argument is Both Wrong and Actively Harmful
The Supreme Court Is About To Decide The Fate Of Millions Of Votes
Mamdani Stumbles Over the Irish Question
The Crypto Industry’s Plan To Sink Unfriendly Democrats Is Backfiring
From Foreign Correspondent to Uber Driver
D.C.’s mayoral race turned negative. Soaring utility bills lit the fuse.
Trump, Iran, And The Biting Of Reality
Trump bank immigration order delayed amid Wall Street pushback
Education and extraction in the cannibal South.
Museum that explores how enslaved people were freed sues over grant cancellation
Donald Trump Is Strangling Cuba To Death
A Whiff of Stagflation
High Point Is A Deeply Weird School

In Case You Missed It…

…a month of Mad Biologist posts:

Democrats Need to Be Better on the Issue of D.C. Statehood

Some Context About Maine’s Senate Race

Abolish ICE Is Now the Mainstream Position

Trump Freezes Out ICE Queen

D.C. Statehood Matters: The Speeding Camera Edition

DOGE Is (Was?) an Insider Threat

Narcissistic Denial as Policy Planning Process

The Worst People

Some Good News for D.C.: Homicides Are Down

The Case of the Multiple (Markwayne) Mullins

How a Narcissist Like Trump Makes Decisions

A Concern About Platner

Some More Good News About Crime in D.C.

The Absurdity of the SAVE Act

research-llm-apis 2026-04-04

Release: research-llm-apis 2026-04-04

I'm working on a major change to my LLM Python library and CLI tool. LLM provides an abstraction layer over hundreds of different LLMs from dozens of different vendors thanks to its plugin system, and some of those vendors have grown new features over the past year which LLM's abstraction layer can't handle, such as server-side tool execution.

To help design that new abstraction layer I had Claude Code read through the Python client libraries for Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini and Mistral and use those to help craft curl commands to access the raw JSON for both streaming and non-streaming modes across a range of different scenarios. Both the scripts and the captured outputs now live in this new repo.

Tags: llm, apis, json, llms

Private Credit and the New World of Financial Risk

Warum sich die Lehman-Insolvenz für viele gelohnt hat | FAZ

On July 15, 2007, the New York Times published an article titled “The richest of the rich, proud of a new Gilded Age.” The article was centered on a profile of Sanford Weill, CEO of Citigroup, who, like others in the financial industry, believed that they were leading America into a new era of prosperity — justifying their immense wealth — and that the government should scrap regulations that were getting in the way of financial innovation.

Exactly one year and two months later, Lehman Brothers failed, plunging the world into the worst financial crisis it had seen in more than 70 years. Many of the innovations of which Weill and others were so proud had, it turned out, created a system of poorly regulated financial institutions — so called “shadow banks” — that were exposed to a 21st-century version of the vast wave of bank runs in 1930 and 1931 that turned an ordinary recession into the Great Depression.

But the 2008 crisis was 17 years ago, and political support for the precautions introduced after 2008 has waned. The Treasury Department is moving to gut the Office of Financial Research, which monitors risks of financial crisis. There is once again a push to deregulate, to embrace financial innovations like crypto that arguably recreate the risks that brought the world economy to its knees in 2008. Shadow banking has had a major revival; by some measures, as I’ll explain, shadow banks are bigger relative to the financial system as they were when Lehman collapsed. And it’s only reasonable to worry about the possibility of a new financial crisis.

At the moment these worries are centered on private credit — lending by institutions that, unlike banks, are effectively shielded from public disclosure and regulation. What’s actually on their books?

After two lenders went bust last fall, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, made waves with his comment that “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”

The good news is that providers of private credit aren’t banks, so that even if they turn out to have a lot of junk on their books it probably won’t have as much negative impact as bank losses in 1930 or shadow bank losses in 2008. But these companies aren’t exactly not banks either. And the rise of private credit is part of a broader growth in weakly regulated financial institutions that is making all of us who remember 2008 increasingly nervous.

So, today’s primer will be about private credit and the broader re-risking of the financial system. Beyond the paywall I will address the following:

1. How financial crises happen

2. The growth of private credit and other “non-bank financial intermediaries”

3. The risks from private credit

4. The big picture: Is it 2008 again?

Read more

Syntaqlite Playground

Tool: Syntaqlite Playground

Lalit Maganti's syntaqlite is currently being discussed on Hacker News thanks to Eight years of wanting, three months of building with AI, a deep dive into exactly how it was built.

This inspired me to revisit a research project I ran when Lalit first released it a couple of weeks ago, where I tried it out and then compiled it to a WebAssembly wheel so it could run in Pyodide in a browser (the library itself uses C and Rust).

This new playground loads up the Python library and provides a UI for trying out its different features: formating, parsing into an AST, validating, and tokenizing SQLite SQL queries.

Screenshot of a dark-themed SQL validation playground called SyntaqLite. The "Validate" tab is selected from options including Format, Parse, Validate, and Tokenize. The SQL input contains "SELECT id, name FROM usr WHERE active = 1" with a schema defining "users" and "posts" tables. Example buttons for "Table typo", "Column typo", and "Valid query" are shown above a red "Validate SQL" button. The Diagnostics panel shows an error for unknown table 'usr' with the suggestion "did you mean 'users'?", and the JSON panel displays the corresponding error object with severity, message, and offset fields.

Tags: sql, ai-assisted-programming, sqlite, tools, agentic-engineering

scan-for-secrets 0.2

Release: scan-for-secrets 0.2

  • CLI tool now streams results as they are found rather than waiting until the end, which is better for large directories.
  • -d/--directory option can now be used multiple times to scan multiple directories.
  • New -f/--file option for specifying one or more individual files to scan.
  • New scan_directory_iter(), scan_file() and scan_file_iter() Python API functions.
  • New -v/--verbose option which shows each directory that is being scanned.

scan-for-secrets 0.1.1

Release: scan-for-secrets 0.1.1

  • Added documentation of the escaping schemes that are also scanned.
  • Removed unnecessary repr escaping scheme, which was already covered by json.

scan-for-secrets 0.1

Release: scan-for-secrets 0.1

I like publishing transcripts of local Claude Code sessions using my claude-code-transcripts tool but I'm often paranoid that one of my API keys or similar secrets might inadvertently be revealed in the detailed log files.

I built this new Python scanning tool to help reassure me. You can feed it secrets and have it scan for them in a specified directory:

uvx scan-for-secrets $OPENAI_API_KEY -d logs-to-publish/

If you leave off the -d it defaults to the current directory.

It doesn't just scan for the literal secrets - it also scans for common encodings of those secrets e.g. backslash or JSON escaping, as described in the README.

If you have a set of secrets you always want to protect you can list commands to echo them in a ~/.scan-for-secrets.conf.sh file. Mine looks like this:

llm keys get openai
llm keys get anthropic
llm keys get gemini
llm keys get mistral
awk -F= '/aws_secret_access_key/{print $2}' ~/.aws/credentials | xargs

I built this tool using README-driven-development: I carefully constructed the README describing exactly how the tool should work, then dumped it into Claude Code and told it to build the actual tool (using red/green TDD, naturally.)

Tags: projects, security, agentic-engineering, coding-agents, ai-assisted-programming, claude-code

Sponsorship Openings for Daring Fireball

Sponsorships have been selling briskly, of late. Knock on wood. As of yesterday, the next opening on the schedule wasn’t until the very end of July. However, due to some schedule rejiggering, next week is now open. After next week, though, the next opening remains the week starting July 27.

If you’ve got a product or service you think would be of interest to DF’s audience of people obsessed with high quality and good design, get in touch — especially if you can act quick for next week’s opening. I’m also booking sponsorships for Q3 and Q4 2026, and over half of those weeks are already sold.

 ★ 

iOS 26 Feels Faster Than iOS 18

One more follow-up point after I spent two days using an iPhone 16 Pro running iOS 18.7.7 as my main phone. At some point late in the iOS 26 beta cycle last summer, it became obvious that Apple had sped up a bunch of system-level animations. Prime example: the animation when you swipe up from the bottom of the screen to go back to the Home Screen. People noticed. But it hasn’t gotten a lot of attention since.

But man, if you want to notice, do what I did and spend two days back on iOS 18. So many little things feel slower. I don’t know if anything actually is slower, but because the animations are slower, it looks slower, and that means it feels slower. Apple should speed up some of these animations again this year. (And/or offer a system-wide setting to make them faster. I do not want to eliminate these animations. I just want them to go very very fast.)

 ★ 

Class Action Lawsuit Says Perplexity’s ‘Incognito Mode’ Is a ‘Sham’

Ashley Belanger, reporting for Ars Technica:

Using developer tools, the lawsuit found that opening prompts are always shared, as are any follow-up questions the search engine asks that a user clicks on. Privacy concerns are seemingly worse for non-subscribed users, the complaint alleged. Their initial prompts are shared with “a URL through which the entire conversation may be accessed by third parties like Meta and Google.”

Disturbingly, the lawsuit alleged, chats are also shared with personally identifiable information (PII), even when users who want to stay anonymous opt to use Perplexity’s “Incognito Mode.” That mode, the lawsuit charged, is a “sham.”

Everything about Perplexity looks like a scam.

 ★ 

Living in Hell

America as we knew it may end Tuesday.

Hi, I’m Paul Krugman. Sunday morning update. Yesterday, I talked about how awful Trump’s message about glory to God and all of that was, but it’s looking much, much worse today. I’ll quote Trump in a second.

But let me do a Heather Cox Richardson here and talk about history for a second. Think about what Abraham Lincoln, a president who was actually winning his war, said in his second inaugural. You’ve all probably heard the magnificent conclusion, which begins,

with malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in.

Determination, humility, decency, Now, let me read you Donald Trump’s Truth Social post from this morning:

Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day, all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it. Open the fuckin strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah.

What happened to us? This is not the country we were supposed to be.

If Trump is actually going to give the order for massive war crimes, for destruction of civilian infrastructure, power plants, bridges, which will, among other things, lead to a lot of deaths in Iran, will the military obey it? A year ago, I would have said no.

But what we do know now is that, first of all, there turns out to be at least a significant MAGA component inside the officer corps. And we know that Pete Hexeth has been systematically corrupting, dismantling the military over the past 14 months. Generals who raise ethical concerns have been fired. Officers who even just want to be intelligent about warfare. and not believe that it’s all about warrior ethos and lethality have been fired, so it’s quite possible that there’s a quorum of officers who will follow instructions to commit war crimes.

You can get even more pessimistic. Tim Snyder has been arguing that we’re basically in preparation for a coup, that somehow or other the war will be a pretense and arguing that this insane expansion of military spending in the latest Trump budget is a bribe to the military.

I hope he’s wrong. But in any case, my God, if Trump gets his way, and if he doesn’t chicken out —and I think TACO is greatly overrated, I think all too often Trump actually does follow through on his insane stuff.

It’s entirely possible that basically by this time Tuesday, America will have established itself as one of the world’s great villains. I don’t want to be here, but, you know, be warned. This is happening. This is real.

It’s the most astonishing, awful thing that I’ve ever seen, and we’ve all seen a lot of awful things. Take care, I guess.

An Easter Morning Message of Hope From the Winner of the FIFA Peace Prize

Donald Trump, sitting president of the United States, on his blog:

Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP

The Iranian embassy in Japan, quoting Trump:

This low level of civility and intelligence shown by a leader of a country is regrettable; the shameful fervor with which intentions to commit war crimes are repeated is staggering; and the fact that the Divine is invoked regardless of ill intentions clearly exposes deep fanaticism. Apologies for sharing this language.

 ★ 

Auden on Iceland

If you have no particular intellectual interests or ambitions and are content with the company of your family and friends, then life on Iceland must be very pleasant, because the inhabitants are friendly, tolerant, and sane.  They are genuinely proud of their country and its history, but without the least trace of hysterical nationalism.  I always found that they welcome criticism.  But I had the feeling, also, that for myself it was already too late.  We are all too deeply involved Europe to be able, or even to wish to escape.  Though I am sure you would enjoy a visit as much as I did, I think that, in the long run, the Scandinavian sanity would be too much for you, as it is for me.  The truth is, we are both only really happy living among lunatics.

That is from W.H. Auden and Louis MacNeice, Letters from Iceland, from 1937, which is one of the better travel books, if indeed that is what it is.

The post Auden on Iceland appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Good sentences

This leads us to the next of Freud’s major contributions to neuroscience: his realization that cognition is, at bottom, wishful.

That is from the new and notable Mark Solms, The Only Cure: Freud and the Neuroscience of Mental Healing.  This is a good book for people who underrated Freud, or think he is a mere charlatan.

The post Good sentences appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Reading List 04/04/2026

UAE cabinet meeting room, via Camski.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at aluminum disruptions, the EV rust belt, the ongoing transformer shortage, SpaceX’s IPO, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

War in Iran

The world’s largest aluminum smelter in Bahrain was hit by an Iranian drone, bringing production offline. [Bloomberg] Other aluminum smelters in the area have cut production due to inability to ship through the Strait. This, in turn, has forced various EV manufacturers to cut production. “Gulf smelters that supply Toyota, Nissan, BMW, parts makers for Mercedes-Benz, South Korea’s Hyundai Mobis and hundreds of other automotive customers worldwide are defaulting on contracts or closing down. The U.S.-Iran war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, cutting off one of the largest flows of automotive-grade aluminum.” [Rest of World]

Israel bombed two Iranian steel factories. [NYT] The US bombed an Iranian bridge that was one of the largest in the Middle East. [BBC] And another Amazon data center was damaged by an Iranian drone. [Reuters]

The Philippines declares a National Energy Emergency. [Reuters] And Germany considers ramping up coal power to avert an energy crisis. [Politico]

Helium production in Qatar, which is responsible for roughly 1/3rd of the world’s supply, has been shut down. [NYT] We’ve previously noted that helium is a critical input for semiconductor manufacturing and MRI machines, but it’s apparently also crucial for mass spectrometers used in science labs. [X]

The world is running out of ways to deal with the disruption to oil supply that don’t involve using less oil. “In the first days of this war, the strait’s closure meant the immediate loss of 20 million daily barrels of crude and refined products. The industry went to work, activating a first layer of defense: using up stocks. The second layer came soon after as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates rerouted some exports using bypass pipelines to Red Sea and Gulf of Oman ports. The third defense came from politicians. The richest nations tapped their strategic reserves, injecting millions of barrels into the market. US President Donald Trump also made constant — and effective — verbal interventions. His jawboning about the chance of an end to the fighting helped tame panic buying.” [Bloomberg]

Italy denied US military aircraft permission to land at a base in Sicily for operations against Iran. [Bloomberg]

Because Iranian ships can traverse the Strait of Hormuz freely, Iran is actually making more money from oil sales than it was prior to the war. “Iran is now earning nearly twice as much from oil sales each day as it did before American and Israeli bombs started falling on February 28th. It may be pummelled on the battlefield, but the regime is winning the energy war.” [The Economist]

Housing

25 housing researchers signed an open letter opposing the provisions in the ROAD to housing act recently passed by the Senate that would limit build-to-rent housing. “If passed, the seven-year disposition requirement would result in a decline of more than 7% of single-family home completions and 18% of rental completions, according to analysis from Laurie Goodman and Jim Parrott at the Urban Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.” [Multifamily Dive]

Work on what would be the tallest mass timber building in the US (in Milwaukee of all places), has apparently stopped, and the project is facing foreclosure. [Multifamily Dive]

Mortgage rates had been steadily, if slowly, declining over the last year, but since the beginning of the war in Iran they’ve ticked back up. [NYT]

Japanese corporations keep buying US homebuilders. “Japanese builders have announced or closed acquisitions of 23 U.S. single-family home builders since 2020, more than double the number from 2013 to 2019. That doesn’t include the multifamily developers and construction-supply companies they have also bought. By some estimates, Japanese builders are now set to own about 6% of the U.S. home-construction market.” [WSJ]

Read more

NASA finalizes science plans for Artemis 2 lunar flyby

Orion Artemis 2

As Artemis 2 approaches the moon, a NASA science team is finalizing plans for the observations they want the astronauts to perform during their flyby.

The post NASA finalizes science plans for Artemis 2 lunar flyby appeared first on SpaceNews.

Atlas 5 launches Amazon Leo satellites

Atlas 5 Amazon Leo 5 launch

An Atlas 5 launched the latest set of satellites for Amazon’s broadband constellation April 4 as the company seeks to accelerate deployment of its spacecraft.

The post Atlas 5 launches Amazon Leo satellites appeared first on SpaceNews.

Space Force budget would more than double in Trump’s $1.5 trillion defense plan

$71 billion request for the U.S. Space Force for fiscal year 2027 includes more than $60 billion for procurement, research and development

The post Space Force budget would more than double in Trump’s $1.5 trillion defense plan appeared first on SpaceNews.

The CA Minimum Wage Increase: Summing Up

Two recent joint-papers Did California’s Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? by Clemens, Edwards and Meer and The Effects of California’s $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage on Prices by Clemens, Edwards, Meer and Nguyen give what I think is a plausible and consistent account of California’s $20 fast food minimum wage.

California’s $20 fast food minimum wage raised wages in the sector by roughly 8 percent relative to the rest of the country but employment fell by 2.3 to 3.9 percent (depending on specification, median ~3.2%), translating to about 18,000 lost jobs. Food away from home (FAFH) prices in California’s four CPI-reporting MSAs rose 3.3–3.6 percent relative to 17 control MSAs. Falsification tests on Food at Home and All Items Less Food and Energy show zero differential movement—this is specific to restaurant prices.

What’s interesting is that the papers are independently estimated but the fit is consistent. The price paper uses Andreyeva et al.’s demand elasticity of -0.8 to convert the estimated price increases into an implied quantity declines: about 3.9–4.1 percent in limited-service and 1.7–1.8 percent in full-service. These align well with the employment declines of 3.2 and 2.1 percent estimated in the first paper.

The consistency tells us something about the mechanism. One thing we have learned about the minimum wage in recent years is that the pass-through effect is large and more of the employment decline is driven by pass through than by labor-capital substitution. In other words, prices rose, quantity demanded fell, and that’s what killed the jobs—not robots replacing workers. Not today, anyway.

In terms of welfare, the bulk of employed workers get an 8% wage increase, a small minority get disemployed. The big transfer was from consumers to workers. California has roughly 39 million residents, all of whom face 3.3–3.6% higher FAFH prices. The transfer is likely regressive — lower-income households spend a larger budget share on fast food specifically. So the policy effectively taxes low-income consumers generally to raise wages for a subset of low-income workers, while eliminating jobs for another subset. Your mileage may vary but I don’t see this as a big win for workers. We thought small increases in the minimum wage were absorbed–maybe some were or maybe they were just hard to estimate–but you can’t extrapolate the small  increases to big ones–the effect is non-linear. Big increases in the minimum wage start to bite.

As usual, when it comes to fast food there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Addendum: Clemens’s JEP paper continues to be the masterclass in how to think through minimum wage issues.

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Inflation or recession? The tug of war in bond markets

Governments’ borrowing costs are being pulled in opposite directions

Sunday assorted links

1. Josefina Aguilar Alcantara, RIP (NYT).

2. Move abroad so you can default on your student debt (NYT).

3. History of golf course bunkers (WSJ).

4. Four reasons why possible aliens might make you more ambitious.

5. New learnings on octopuses and sex.

6. “They estimate roughly 90% of the tariffs have been passed through to importers, with foreign exporters absorbing only about 10% of the cost by lowering their before-tariff prices.

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Emergent Ventures winners, 53rd cohort

Elif Ozdemir, Ankara, align satellites.

Lily Zuckerman, University of Austin (and NYC), painting and general career support.

Benjamin Unger, NYC, AI to measure the performance of New York governments.

Maarten Boudry, Brussels, to write a book on who is really for progress, or not.

Allan Wandia, San Francisco, foundation models that learn directly from raw experimental data.

Richard Ng, London, AI agents.

Jordan Unokesan, London, trust scoring for government contractors.

Alexander Griffiths, London, infrastructure policy and decisions.

Pio Borgelt, 17, Osnabruck, AI. 

Vedant Agarwal, 18, Cambridge UK, biosciences.

Chris Lee, Murietta, 18, CA, police recruitment.

Broderick Cotter, Austin, 17, finding the best materials for 3-D printing.

Jehan Azad, San Francisco, radar and UAPs.

Marius Drozdzewski, with collaborators, Berlin, German liberal periodical Aevum.

Ethan Galloway, London, 16, AI algorithms.

Keelan O’Carroll, Florida, happiness podcast.

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Artemis II is going so well that we're left to talk about frozen urine

The Orion spacecraft is now much closer to the Moon than Earth on its 10-day journey into deep space and back, and overall everything is going smashingly well.

Things are going so well that, during the daily mission briefings at Johnson Space Center in Houston, there's just not that much of substance to talk about. So the discourse keeps coming back to, of all things, the toilet on board Orion.

As you may recall, there were some toilet problems in the initial hours of the mission. During the initial checkout of spacecraft systems, Orion's toilet was supposed to be “wetted” with water to prime the pump. Not enough water was introduced, so the pump was non-responsive. Once more water was added, it began functioning fine.

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"God, you're hot."

Keith Irvin: Unambiguously not hot.

So earlier this week, during a meeting of the Washington County Board of Education in Washington County, Tenn., a representative named Keith Irvin listened to a high school student speak, then told her she was hot.

Seriously.

I’m not joking.

For real.

Watch …

And while the entire exchange was creepy AF, what truly caught my eye—and continues to consume my thoughts—is how none of the adults in the room stood up for the girl. Hell, there’s Jerry S. Boyd, school superintendent, sorta sitting there, hands folded, watching in silence. The other board members—nada. Parents—nada. Literally nobody said a word as Mr. Creepster laughed and laughed and laughed, and peers joined in with the chuckles.

And what hit me, in witnessing the moment, was this: Donald Trump’s cabinet members never confront their boss—because doing so would involve not merely conviction of character, but actual bravery. It would mean stepping out of the comfort of a cushy chair, standing tall and saying, “No! This is [fill in the blank with gross/crazy/insane].” It would mean taking a risk. It would mean separating yourself from the lemmings. It would mean being (gasp) brave. And decent. And kind. And real. It would mean risking the access to power, the snazzy job title, the cool parking space, the White House Christmas party invitation.

Those surrounding Keith Irvin had nothing to lose, and only risked the momentary awkwardness of separating oneself from the group—and they were too afraid to say something. So why would we ever expect Marco Rubio or Karoline Leavitt to be bold? Why would we expect them to represent integrity?

We wouldn’t.

And shouldn’t.

These days, sucking up is king.

And the king loves suck-ups.

NATO

April 3, 2026

On April 4, 1949, representatives from twelve countries in Europe and North America—Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States—signed the North Atlantic Treaty, creating the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO. This defensive security alliance has been a key institution for world stability since World War II.

In the wake of that war, the U.S. and its allies recognized the crucial importance of peacetime alliances to deter future wars. To stop the spread of communism across war-torn Europe, the United States backed a massive financial investment into rebuilding Europe. President Harry S. Truman signed the European Recovery Program, better known as the Marshall Plan, into law on April 3, 1948.

Quickly, though, it appeared that economic recovery would not be enough to protect a democratic Europe. The expansion of Soviet-style communism prompted officials to consider a pact that would enlist the United States to stand behind the security of Western Europe. Crucially, though, they wanted it to stand outside the United Nations, where the Soviet Union could exercise veto power. The outcome was the NATO alliance.

NATO guaranteed collective security because all of the member states agreed to defend one another against an attack by a third party. Article 5 of the treaty requires every member nation to come to the aid of any one of them if it is attacked. That article has been invoked only once: after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, after which NATO-led troops went to Afghanistan.

Over the years, the alliance has expanded to include 32 countries. In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, all former satellites of the USSR, joined NATO over the protests of Russia, which was falling under the control of oligarchs who opposed western democracy. More countries near Russia joined NATO in the 2000s, and Finland and Sweden have joined since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—Finland three years ago tomorrow, in fact.

When NATO formed, the main concern of the countries backing it was resisting Soviet aggression, but with the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of Russian president Vladimir Putin, NATO resisted Russian aggression instead.

In 1949, when he signed the treaty, President Truman called the pact a positive influence for peace. That peace was, first of all, among the nations signing the agreement. They were, he said, agreeing “to abide by the peaceful principles of the United Nations, to maintain friendly relations and economic cooperation with one another, to consult together whenever the territory or independence of any of them is threatened, and to come to the aid of any one of them who may be attacked.” If such an agreement had been in place “in 1914 and in 1939, supported by the nations who are represented here today,” he said, “I believe it would have prevented the acts of aggression which led to two world wars.”

With NATO, Truman said, “we hope to create a shield against aggression and the fear of aggression—a bulwark which will permit us to get on with the real business of government and society, the business of achieving a fuller and happier life for all our citizens.”

NATO countries agreed to stand together to withstand aggression from outside the pact. Truman emphasized the difference between the NATO countries and the authoritarian system against which the alliance stood. The NATO countries could stand together without being identical. “There are different kinds of governmental and economic systems, just as there are different languages and different cultures. But these differences present no real obstacle to the voluntary association of free nations devoted to the common cause of peace,” he said. “[I]t is possible for nations to achieve unity on the great principles of human freedom and justice, and at the same time to permit, in other respects, the greatest diversity of which the human mind is capable.”

The experience of the United States “in creating one nation out of…the peoples of many lands” proved that this idea could work, Truman said. “This method of organizing diverse peoples and cultures is in direct contrast to the method of the police state, which attempts to achieve unity by imposing the same beliefs and the same rule of force on everyone.”

The NATO countries did not believe that war was inevitable, Truman said. “Men with courage and vision can still determine their own destiny. They can choose slavery or freedom—war or peace. I have no doubt which they will choose. The treaty we are signing here today is evidence of the path they will follow. If there is anything certain today, if there is anything inevitable in the future, it is the will of the people of the world for freedom and for peace.”

Notes:

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/nato

https://nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-the-occasion-the-signing-the-north-atlantic-treaty

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-31-2024

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Administration is Feeling Pressure

Saturday 4 April 1663

Up betimes and to my office. By and by to Lombard street by appointment to meet Mr. Moore, but the business not being ready I returned to the office, where we sat a while, and, being sent for, I returned to him and there signed to some papers in the conveying of some lands mortgaged by Sir Rob. Parkhurst in my name to my Lord Sandwich, which I having done I returned home to dinner.

Whither by and by comes Roger Pepys, Mrs. Turner her daughter, Joyce Norton, and a young lady, a daughter of Coll. Cockes, my uncle Wight, his wife and Mrs. Anne Wight. This being my feast, in lieu of what I should have had a few days ago for my cutting of the stone, for which the Lord make me truly thankful.

Very merry at, before, and after dinner, and the more for that my dinner was great, and most neatly dressed by our own only maid. We had a fricasee of rabbits and chickens, a leg of mutton boiled, three carps in a dish, a great dish of a side of lamb, a dish of roasted pigeons, a dish of four lobsters, three tarts, a lamprey pie (a most rare pie), a dish of anchovies, good wine of several sorts, and all things mighty noble and to my great content.

After dinner to Hide Park; my aunt, Mrs. Wight and I in one coach, and all the rest of the women in Mrs. Turner’s; Roger being gone in haste to the Parliament about the carrying this business of the Papists, in which it seems there is great contest on both sides, and my uncle and father staying together behind. At the Park was the King, and in another coach my Lady Castlemaine, they greeting one another at every tour.1 Here about an hour, and so leaving all by the way we home and found the house as clean as if nothing had been done there to-day from top to bottom, which made us give the cook 12d. a piece, each of us.

So to my office about writing letters by the post, one to my brother John at Brampton telling him (hoping to work a good effect by it upon my mother) how melancholy my father is, and bidding him use all means to get my mother to live peaceably and quietly, which I am sure she neither do nor I fear can ever do, but frightening her with his coming down no more, and the danger of her condition if he should die I trust may do good.

So home and to bed.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Links 4/4/26

Links for you. Science:

First-of-its-kind vaccine protects children from deadly intestinal infections
How Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Vaccine Agenda Risks a Resurgence of Deadly Childhood Plagues
A New Level of Vaccine Purgatory
Cost and benefits of gene amplification-mediated antibiotic resistance
I Wrote Research Funding Announcements for NIH for 22 Years. This Year They’ve Published 14
Scientists turn mosquitoes ‘into a vaccination tool’ to immunise bats against rabies

Other:

Who Will Lead the Dems to the Promised Land of a New Israel Policy?
We must rewrite the rulebook for fighting antisemitism — or conspiracists like Joe Kent will win the narrative wars
Optimism In An Age Of Superstition And Decline
Trump Friend Asked ICE to Detain the Mother of His Child (the worst people)
The Lies We Tell
The Fake Tough Guys of the Trump Administration
The Crisis In High Education
Father of service member killed in Iran war said he never told Pete Hegseth to ‘finish’ the job
Pope Bob
The left grapples with the painful reality of Cesar Chavez’s legacy
Mayoral Candidate Vincent Orange’s Son Arrested, Found With Illegal Handgun and Sword
The Trump administration is about to kill a popular D.C. bike lane
Fox News freaks over Democrats’ ‘revenge agenda’
As streetcar shutdown looms, H Street commuters face the end of the line
Jared Kushner’s Corruption Is a National Security Disaster
Down to the bone
Stylists fear Hollywood stars are blind to how skinny they really are — while health expert warns of ‘malnutrition’ and muscle ‘waste’
How Will 2028 Democrats Handle Israel?
Marc Andreessen is a philosophical zombie
Musk’s Grok Chatbot Made Sexual Images of Minors, Teens Allege in Lawsuit
Afghan who fought with US special forces dies in ICE custody as Trump on track for deadliest year of detention in more than two decades
College Republicans tap MAGA influencer tied to Nick Fuentes for leadership role
Some DHS contractors told White House officials they were asked to pay Corey Lewandowski
Toxic Pollution From Iran War Will Spread and Last for Decades
Half of Americans now say ‘Abolish ICE.’ It’s about time.
The Right to a Bed in Zohran Mamdani’s New York
What Joe Kent and Candace Owens Are Really Up to in Their Critiques of the Iran War
Maine’s latest ballot question puts a target on trans students’ backs
Trump reshapes a key US House race by offering a candidate and her husband roles if they drop out (that this is illegal is not even mentioned in the story)
The $100,000 fee for H-1Bs is causing all sorts of problems. Unlike Big Tech, rural schools and hospitals that rely on immigrant workers can’t absorb the high cost of H-1B visas.

Talking With Lina Khan

On March 9 I interviewed Lina Khan — innovative antitrust thinker, former head of the Federal Trade Commission, and co-chair of the Mamdani transition in New York — at the CUNY Graduate Center. Transcript follows.

Transcript

Janet Gornick Good evening. I’m Janet Gornick, Professor of Political Science and Sociology and Director of the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality here at the Graduate Center. Our center is the co-host of this evening’s event in partnership with our Office of Public Programs. It’s my great pleasure to welcome you here this evening. Welcome to the in-person audience here in Proshansky Auditorium, and welcome to the large virtual audience as well. This evening’s event is one of the many public lectures, panels, and conversations offered here at the Graduate Center at the City University of New York throughout the year. And at the Graduate Center, we’re proud of our history of applying research and scholarship to address societal challenges, and tonight’s conversation fits in with that tradition. This evening, we are extremely pleased to welcome Professor Lina Khan to the Graduate Center. Her first time on our stage here. She’s well known to us and to many of you for her foundational work on antitrust and competition law, and more recently for her crucial role as co-chair of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s transition team.

Professor Khan in just a few minutes will be joined in conversation with Professor Paul Krugman.

So let me first tell you what to expect this evening. After my brief introduction, our two guests will hold a conversation led by Professor Krugman. And while they’re conversing, audience members will have an opportunity to write questions on index cards that you picked up on your way in. The public program staff will come down the aisles at about 7:10 to collect your index cards, and they’ll be sorted and handed to Professor Krugman. So let me make a quick plea to those of you who submit questions. Please make them relatively brief and print as clearly as possible, ideally in block print so that Professor Krugman can read what you’ve written. Yep, that’s necessary.

And then starting at 7:30, our guest will address your questions, and we’ll close at 7:45.

So let me tell you briefly about Professor Lina Khan. A graduate of Williams College and Yale Law School, she got her start in antitrust as a business reporter and researcher, examining consolidation across markets from airlines to chicken farming. In 2017, during her third year at Yale Law School, the “Yale Law Journal” published her article called “Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox”. The article had a huge impact in legal circles, legal and business circles in the United States. And the following year, “The New York Times” described it as reframing decades of monopoly law.

Professor Khan then went on to serve as chair of the Federal Trade Commission from June 2021 until January of 2025. And while at the FTC, she focused on exercising the full suite of the FTC’s statutory authorities, regularly engaging with public audiences and ensuring that the agency updated its tools to accommodate the reality of new markets. Her priority initiatives included reinvigorating antitrust and consumer protection enforcement, tackling non-compete clauses, taking on illegal contact, conduct, excuse me, that deprives Americans of access to affordable high quality healthcare, and protecting people’s sensitive data from surveillance. Her work did not go unnoticed. In 2023, Yahoo Finance dubbed her the most feared person in Silicon Valley.

And now in her post-FTC Life, she’s Associate Professor at Columbia Law, and she served as, as I noted, the co-chair of Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral transition team. So this evening, this evening, Professor Krugman will query her about multiple aspects of her career and her work, focusing especially on questions related to affordability, antitrust, and inequality.

And before I step off the stage, let me say a few words about Paul Krugman, who is well known to many of us here at the Graduate Center, and surely to many in the audience as well. Paul Krugman is a research professor in the Graduate Center’s PhD program in economics and a senior scholar in the Stone Center. Before joining the Graduate Center in 2014, he was Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton. Professor Krugman’s scholarship has been honored countless times, including in 2008 when he received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on international trade theory.

He’s the author of more than 200 articles and many books, most recently “Arguing with Zombies, Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future”. In addition to working with us here at the Graduate Center, he co-authors textbooks on micro and macroeconomics with Robin Wells. And of course, many of you know him best for his 25 years writing op-ed columns for “The New York Times”. Last year, he transitioned away from “The Times”, but he surely has not left the world of public engagement. You can now find him on Substack, where every day he’s writing, interviewing diverse thinkers and frequently posting music aimed at raising his readers’ spirits. So welcome to our two guests. Paul, I turn the evening over to you.

Krugman Thanks Janet. Okay, so I should admit to everybody that I have a conflict of interest here, which is I think everybody here wants to hear about the Mamdani administration and what it can do. But I really wanna talk about theories of monopoly power, dynamic strategies and network externalities. And so we will get to stuff that actually matters later, or matters to people here. But I wanna talk, I wanna start with a little bit of sort of intellectual biography.

So tell me, I’ve tried to read some of it, but tell us about your start working on antitrust. ‘Cause you started very, very early on the issues. And then wanna talk about Amazon and all that.

Khan Well, it’s so wonderful to be here, and a great honor to be in conversation with Professor Krugman. So I really got my start as a researcher and reporter. I, you know, graduated during the financial crisis and had originally wanted to be a business journalist. It was very difficult to find journalism jobs, and so I ended up landing at a think tank, where my job was really to do deep dives into various markets across the US economy, and in particular study how the structure of these markets had changed.

And so I would do, you know, spend months looking at the structure of, say, the book publishing industry or the chicken farming industry or the airline industry, and got a sense of how over decades we had gone from having,

in some cases, dozens of competitors to now increasingly, market after market just dominated by a very small number of companies. And my job was to document what the effects of that consolidation had been.

You know, sometimes the consolidation can actually be even more extreme than is visible to us. So if you go to the grocery store, you may see, you know, dozens of brands of laundry detergent or diapers or various kinds of snacks. But even there we see just a couple of companies control market after market, and so there’s actually an illusion of choice. And through doing this research, it was clear that oftentimes the purported benefits of consolidation had been overstated. And in fact, people were left much worse off, be it from the consumer perspective, where companies had started to use the lack of competition to jack up prices or deprive people of choices. But also for workers, for small businesses. I spent a lot of time studying agriculture markets in particular, where we’ve seen, you know, be it in chicken farming or meat processing or you know, beef, you have on the one hand, you know, tens of thousands of farmers, on the other hand, millions of consumers, but just four companies in market after market connecting them. And what that has meant practically is that consumers have been paying more for meat, even as farmers have been making less. And so there’s a clear economic impact.

But there was also just abuse of power that we were seeing, because oftentimes farmers’ entire livelihood could be dependent on just a single firm. And that firm would, you know, dictate terms, would engage in all sorts of abusive contractual practices. And so that got me interested in this body of law that we have in the United States, the antitrust and anti-monopoly laws that were designed precisely to prevent extreme concentrations of economic power. These laws go back to the Industrial Revolution where we had seen enormous technological progress, but similarly a lot of concentration of power.

And there was a concern among lawmakers that these new trusts and industrial titans were really abusing their power in ways that was leaving Americans worse off economically, but that it was also undermining core principles of freedom and liberty. And so that was really my entryway into this. And I just became fascinated by this question of how it was that we had so much consolidation in all these markets and extreme concentration of economic power, even as we had a set of laws on the books that were supposed to protect us from precisely that.

Krugman Okay, and I, yeah, I thought that was really revelatory that so many, you know, in economics textbooks, probably including mine, ours, we, you know, always present agriculture as the quintessential example of a highly competitive industry. But in practice it’s not. The farmers are competitive, the consumers are competitive, but the middlemen are the, okay. I kind of see how that led you to Amazon. So this is this, you know, standing in between. A lot of sellers, a lot of buyers, but someone, actually, that’s the original robber baron was the idea of the robber baron with this castle along the Rhine, extracting tolls from everybody who passes by. But tell me about the Amazon paper. Because I thought, you know, I read it, but I think people should know what it is you did, and I wanna follow up on that.

Khan You’re absolutely right that there are real parallels even among markets that can seem quite different, in that, you know, be it as a chicken farmer or as an author, if your livelihood is suddenly at the whims of a single gatekeeper or a dominant intermediary that is controlling access to markets, the type of abusive practices can actually start to look pretty similar, even in seemingly disparate markets.

So the Amazon paper similarly resulted from doing a lot of business and market research. I spent a lot of time talking to two sets of market participants. One was the set of businesses that were selling through Amazon, and the second was investors and financial analysts that were looking at Amazon more through a long-term financial prism. And this was around 2012, 2013. The kind of common policy wisdom in DC was that Amazon, along with these tech giants, you know, had revolutionized digital markets, that Amazon in particular was, you know, somewhat irrational. It kept losing money, it seemed to be, you know, relentlessly dedicated to making things cheap. And so the idea that Amazon could ever pose some kind of competition problem didn’t really compute for people, because we had come to interpret our antitrust laws primarily through the prism of what the effect on short-term prices would be. And so I ended up using a lot of that research to basically use Amazon to tell a broader story about how various changes in how we now do antitrust had created all sorts of blind spots.

You know, some of the core business practices that Amazon used to develop its network, to deepen its moat were business practices that in the ‘60s or ‘70s would’ve been viewed pretty skeptically by law enforcers. But because of this intellectual revolution that had been, you know, spurred by people like Robert Bork, by people kind of generally known as the Chicago School, that we were now oftentimes facilitating the very types of concentrations of power that these laws were supposed to be skeptical of. And so the article was about Amazon and about Amazon’s business practices, but it was really using the company to tell a deeper story about blind spots that I thought the current antitrust regime had.

Krugman And you got a tremendous amount of, both a lot of people paid attention, but also a lot of pushback, right? People were very upset. And it feels like it was a very long time ago, because in 2017, I guess when it was published, you know, how could you be critical of Amazon? And seems like it’s a very different world now.

Khan It was interesting. I mean, the piece came out in January or February of 2017, and then that summer, Amazon announced it was planning to buy Whole Foods. And I remember that was one of the first moments where the response to one of these big acquisitions seemed a little different, because it seemed to prompt this question for the public of, are there any limits, and what are those principles?

And so I remember that acquisition ended up spurring a lot of discussion in particular.

Krugman Yeah, I mean, what strikes me is that the idea that companies that have established these kind of network positions, these kind of centrality and everybody has to use them, that they would abuse that, seemed, you know, not many people were saying that 10 years ago. And nowadays it’s everywhere. It’s, I mean, the word of the year I guess like three years ago was Cory Doctorow’s enshittification, which was basically largely about Amazon and Facebook and all of these companies abusing their sort of central position in markets. And do you feel vindicated by all of that?

Khan You know, it’s good that there’s been collective learning about, you know, the challenges that these firms can pose, you know, resulting in major lawsuits being filed. You know, Google has now been found to be an illegal monopoly, you know, three times over in separate cases. The case against Amazon is still proceeding. So yeah, I mean, you know, I do think that there’s been a greater awareness of how these markets in particular can be prone to monopolization, right?

I think one of, the big shift was that in the early 2000s, there was a view that to set up one of these companies, all you need is, you know, a couple of high school dropouts in a garage with a good idea. And that the entry costs were very low, and that, if anything, the government should err on the side of inaction because these markets were so fast-moving, so dynamic that we didn’t want these, you know, arrogant government officials to start meddling. And so there was a, you know, almost a deliberate policy choice to err on the side of inaction from an antitrust and competition perspective. And I think, you know, fast forward even a decade from that time, there was a much greater recognition that actually there’s something about how these digital markets work, this concept of network effects, the ways that data advantages kind of reinforce themselves, that maybe these markets are even more prone to monopolization rather than less. And so maybe there should be more action and more scrutiny earlier. And so I think there was an inversion of some of those prior assumptions. –

Krugman Yeah, for people in the audience, network effects here really means that there’s a lot of these companies’ services that everybody uses, because everybody uses them, right? There’s a sort of circularity. I mean, you know, as many of us know, it’s really, really hard not to buy from Amazon now, and this is true of a lot of these companies. And you were talking about that quite early as a risk at a time when people were mostly praising it.

I’m gonna actually throw in a curveball though, which is not part of my plan here.

But one thing that, I don’t know if you’ve thought about this, but one thing that strikes me and that is really very different from the earlier antitrust debate was we would talk a lot about the power of, you know, General Motors, or the power of of corporations. But what’s interesting about this group is that these are not just corporations. They actually happen by and large to be sort of individual people, that Amazon is not just Amazon, but it’s Jeff Bezos. Facebook is not just Facebook, it’s Mark Zuckerberg. And this is, you know, this class of extraordinarily wealthy people, that’s something that’s kind of new, or it’s both new and old. It’s hearkening back to the 19th century. Have you thought about that at all?

Khan It’s a really interesting point. And it gets to the fact that, you know, there were massive intellectual and ideological changes in how we do antitrust. But that was just part and parcel of a broader set of changes that we’ve seen across laws. And that includes things like corporate governance. And so, you know, even if you look at how the boards are structured of a company like Facebook, there was much greater reliance on basically creating different segments of shares. And so basically creating kind of super-weighted shares and ownership for people like Mark Zuckerberg, so the types of corporate accountability that you might have had through a board previously really don’t exist for individuals like him. And so there’s been not only consolidation across markets, but consolidation of power within the firm and within the corporate structure, as you’re referencing,

Krugman Which means that we kind of get into the political arena as well, ‘cause that’s so important there. And I shouldn’t talk, but just plugging something that my former employer, “The Times” just had a report that said that in the 2024 campaign, 300 billionaires accounted for 19% of all political contributions in the United States, it’s really sort of 300 families, and a fair number of them are in fact these companies that you were writing about in 2017.

Okay, so you got into the political arena. You became a very young, very dynamic and very controversial chair of the FTC. So what was that like? Actually, how did that happen? How did you get, how did Joe Biden end up recruiting you?

Khan- I mean, you’ll have to ask him, you know, what that process was like for the White House. But for me, I had spent some time working as a staffer for a congressional committee. The judiciary committee has an antitrust subcommittee where we actually did a deep investigation into Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Google and, you know, had been doing that work within government. When that wrapped up, I went back to academia and then, you know, the election happened and I got outreach to see if I’d be interested in serving at the Federal Trade Commission.

So it was a remarkable honor to get to take the helm there, especially during a time where it seemed there was a real appetite to rethink how we are using these laws, enforcing these laws. The Federal Trade Commission is an agency that was created back in 1914, has been given pretty significant powers by Congress, but for several decades, especially after the Reagan administration, had been kind of, you know, narrowing its ambition and really I think punching below its weight in some cases. And so it was an opportunity to come in and really reinvigorate the agency.

Krugman Okay, and so tell me about what you think were some of the notable targets, cases that you tried to go after, industries that you thought were interesting.

Khan- Well, we were, you know, the FTC is by all accounts a pretty small agency. At its peak when I was there, it was around 1400 employees. And so we had to be extraordinarily focused on prioritization, and, you know, every investigation you’re doing is another investigation you’re not doing. So there were several factors that we looked at, one of which was just how significant is this industry for people’s day-to-day lives? And something that rose to the top of course was healthcare, where across different parts of the healthcare supply chain, we have similarly seen a lot of consolidation, be it among hospitals, be it among pharmacies, be it among these middlemen known as pharmacy benefit managers.

And in healthcare in particular, we’ve seen not only horizontal consolidation, but also vertical integration. So the same player that is the health insurer is also owning the pharmacy, is also owning the pharmacy benefit manager. We’d also seen trends such as private equity coming in and rolling up different physician practices and then jacking up prices. And, you know, week after week, month after month, we would hear from Americans about just how devastating this was for their day-to-day lives. I mean, we would routinely hear from people about how they were having to ration lifesaving medicines, skip doses of lifesaving medicines, people who had had family members pass away because they didn’t wanna, you know, use up all their insulin because it was so expensive. And so the kind of stakes here are literally life or death. And so we spent a lot of time focused on healthcare markets. That included things like whenever pharmaceutical companies were trying to merge or buy one another, we would be especially vigilant to make sure that these mergers were not gonna be used to snuff out new innovative drugs that actually would have brought down prices.

We also looked very closely at these middlemen, these pharmacy benefit managers, because we’d heard a lot about how their practices were both contributing to higher drug prices, but also squeezing out independent pharmacies and resulting in higher prices there. So I would say, you know, I think the tech work of the FTC gets a lot of attention, but I think, you know, healthcare was just as important an area of focus for us.

Krugman Okay. And yeah, there were some of those, there were some sort of scandalous acquisitions and then exploitations involving drugs. I’m trying to remember now. I’m sure you know better than me. But there were some really drastic cases that made headlines. And did you feel that you made headway on those?

Khan Yeah, I mean, you know, one of the most notorious was Martin Shkreli, AKA Pharma Bro, who, you know, bought up a drug and jacked up the price thousands of percent. And you know, that was a case that the FTC litigated, the FTC won, and then also secured a lifetime ban for Martin Shkreli, where he is not allowed to be in the pharma industry anymore. There’s some other cases that are still ongoing in healthcare, but we did successfully stop hospital mergers across the country. There’s a lot of evidence that when hospitals merge, prices and costs tend to go up and quality tends to go down. We’ve also seen the rise of healthcare deserts across the country, where, you know, people are gonna have to drive, you know, over 100 miles to get to the nearest hospital as opposed to 10 miles. And so, you know, there’s a lot more work to be done there, but there was some progress.

The other big area of focus for us was labor markets, where, you know, there was a lot of attention on how market power affected consumers, but over the last decade we’ve also seen more and more economic research showing that labor markets can actually be much less competitive than people had previously assumed. And that that also ends up being bad for workers in terms of resulting in lower wages, more stagnant wages. We were very focused both on how mergers were affecting workers, and so if a merger would be proposed, we would look not just at its potential impact on, say, patients, but also on, say, healthcare workers. And then we were very focused on this issue of non-competes, with this contractual provision that basically locks workers in place. –

Krugman Yeah, people don’t know, again, non-competes, maybe a fair number of people in this audience have actually encountered it, but yeah, you non-compete is basically saying, you know, if you leave, you cannot basically work for somebody who’s competing with us, can’t take a job, you can’t yourself compete with us. It’s a tremendous lock on the labor market. And did you make any progress? I’m unclear exactly how far we got on that.

Khan Yeah, so these are provisions that started off in the C-suite, but basically have proliferated. So now a conservative estimate is that one in five Americans has been governed by a non-compete, and that these are affecting, you know, security guards, janitors, fast food workers, people making, you know, close to minimum wage.

And that these have a real abusive effect. I mean, when we put out, so basically we both brought lawsuits against coercive non-competes that resulted in companies dropping them for thousands of workers. For example, we brought a case against the security guard company in Michigan that had been locking down, you know, again, minimum wage-making security guards, preventing them from taking jobs that were better fits. And this was resulting in people’s wages being depressed.

We also put out a proposed rule that would basically eliminate the vast majority of non-competes in this country.

And when we put that out, we got 26,000 comments from people across the country, from every state. We heard, for example, from a bartender in Florida who shared how she had been harassed at her job. It spurred her to go find another job. And when she, you know, basically made moves to go start working at a different restaurant, her original employer basically threatened her with a lawsuit for tens of thousands of dollars. And so she had to choose basically, you know, do I try to escape this horrible work situation where I’m getting harassed, or do I basically risk becoming bankrupt because of this lawsuit? And so, you know, there’s a financial impact here, but there’s also just a real coercive impact on people’s day-to-day lives. And it was just horrifying, candidly, to just see all the ways that employers have abused these contractual provisions.

Krugman Okay, one more question about the past before we come up to New York City. Your time at the FTC coincided with the big inflation spike, which is like, roughly 2021 to 2023. And certainly up my alley, there was a lot of back and forth and quite angry debate about the role of monopoly power, about sellers’ inflation. How much of this is actually overheating of the economy or supply chain, and how much of this is just companies exploiting, you know, taking advantage, and who will notice if we raise prices now? And how much did you weigh in on that, and do you have views about it?

Khan- I mean, we certainly saw our job as making sure that no firm was, that Americans were not facing higher prices because of illegal business practices. And that took a couple of forms.

You know, when you have industries that are more concentrated, so if you have a smaller number of competitors, it can be easier for them effectively to collude. This is kind of, you know, anti-competition one-on-one, the idea that if you have three firms in a market, it’s gonna be much easier for them to basically fix pricesthan if you have 300 firms, where it’s just much more difficult to coordinate. And in as much as we had seen markets where you would now have had a smaller number of firms, and sometimes it seemed like they were using their earnings calls to even, you know, flag for one another that, “Hey, we think, you know, we’re gonna keep prices high,” and do some of that signaling. That was something that we monitored.

I think more generally though, there was this issue of how longstanding trends of consolidation had made markets more fragile, so that a single disaster in one place could drive up prices much more acutely. We saw this, for example, with infant formula, where back in 2022, there were major shortages in infant formula nationally. Infant formula is a market that has consolidated, there are four major manufacturers. And these shortages were a result of basically a contamination in one factory in America. And it was just an illustration of how concentrating production can also concentrate risk. And so that’s another way in which we saw a real relationship between diminishing competition and, you know, higher prices and more situations where you had greater vulnerability to abrupt spikes in prices.

Krugman Actually, that’s something I never thought of. Because I was aware very much during that period of how concentrated production was physically. It was always a kind of a shock to discover there was something that was used around the world, and a fire in one factory somewhere could disrupt. But I never really thought of that as being linked to, that the concentration was not just that the technology mandated it, but it was actually the market consolidation, was actually the monopolization. So you thought that that was a significant factor in all of that?

Khan- I mean, look, it’s, you know, you always want more empirical research figuring out what’s going on. And you wanna do, you know, market by market analysis. But certainly there were some markets where it did seem there was a relationship between increased physical concentration of production and, you know, greater susceptibility to these cascading risks.

Krugman Okay, well jump forward not that far in time, but move north a couple of hundred miles from DC. So how did you get, again, you may not know exactly, but how did you end up being associated with Mamdani? Was it during the campaign? Was it already before he won? And tell us about that.

Khan So yeah, when Assembly Member Mamdani was running for mayor last spring, he reached out and wanted to chat about, you know, different parts of his agenda and what he was thinking about, especially on this issue of affordability. He’s somebody that is extraordinarily curious, and he really wanted to understand and get to the bottom of what are the real drivers of increasing costs for people across the city, be it for them as consumers, be it for them as workers, be it for them as small businesses. And, you know, one of the first kind of videos that he did that really took off was one of him going to a halal cart driver, and saying, “Hey, I noticed that your chicken and rice used to cost $8 a couple years ago, and now it costs $10. Why is that, what happened?”

And so he was really oriented towards understanding substantively why is it that people are seeing higher prices? And so we, you know, met and spoke and chatted about, you know, what are some of the policy levers that New York City and a mayor in particular may have at his disposal? And so, you know, we stayed in touch. His team would kind of ask for feedback on some of their campaign proposals, on, you know, taking on corporate power. And so I was, you know, really thrilled to see him win, and then was honored to get to co-chair his transition.

Krugman Okay. And so you had, you were part of the transition, but not in the, or in addition to the usual sense. You had a team that was specifically working on these issues. You weren’t just sort of helping him pick the various offices?

Khan- So a main part of the job was helping assemble the team. I in particular was focused on the top economic and legal jobs. But alongside the appointments and personnel process, I was also helping on policy planning and wanting to make sure that, you know, coming in on day one as mayor, he had a robust set of options before him in terms of what he might be able to do to bring down costs. And so we had, you know, a little, a group of folks that were running those things down, be it in the context of small business or consumers or workers or energy. And so there was both a personnel and a policy component.

Krugman Okay, does that policy team still exist in some form? I mean, I know that you don’t formally have a role in this mayor’s administration, but do you still have a group of people that are working on this?

Khan So I mean, you know, now that he is mayor, he has a full team internally. We have kind of a loose coalition of folks outside that, you know, are still very eager to make sure that they are being provided, you know, policy options, and able to think expansively about what some of those tools and authorities may be.

So there is an ongoing policy process. I know there are a lot of organizations across the city that are kind of, you know, working on making sure that city hall is well-equipped when it comes with policy proposals.

Krugman Yeah, I have to say, it always shocks me when I think about how little I know about how anything is run in the city I live in. But anyway, it’s quite, it’s an enormous thing. How big is the city? There must, I have no idea how many employees the city even has, but it’s enormous.

Khan Yeah, I mean, it’s a huge bureaucracy. And it was really interesting just even having to learn kind of new agency acronyms and just like how the org chart works. And it’s phenomenal. I mean, it’s a enormous responsibility, and it spans everything from, you know, needing to make sure that when there’s a huge snowstorm, that, you know, snow’s plowed, that the streets are safe, to thinking more long term about things like housing, and how do we make sure that New York is a place where people can actually afford to live?

Krugman Yeah, we have a severe acronym shortage, by the way. I mean, I was having a whole conversation with somebody I know, who’s actually in the audience, about DOE. We were going back and forth, and it finally occurred to me that they were talking about the Department of Education. I was thinking of the Department of Energy in Washington. And so the conversation was total nonsense because we had two different DOEs.

Anyway. So let’s talk about affordability in New York. What are the areas where you, I mean, mayor has somewhat limited power, but maybe more than people think. What are some of the areas where you think that really things can be done? I wanna get into them a bit. And then well, if there may be some big ones that we need to talk about further.

But tell me, so I know that you’ve talked about, you’ve been, you know, the press reports have emphasized things like food delivery, real estate brokers’ fees. Can you tell us a little bit about each of those?

Khan So I think about it as different categories. You know, I think there’s one category that really is about taking on these extractive middlemen. And you know, you can call it market power, you can just call it corporate abuse. But I think we’ve seen across markets just this nickel and dimeing. You know, the proliferation of these junk fees, where a company will advertise one price, and by the time you go to check out it’s, you know, suddenly, you know, $20 more expensive because of these random service delivery fees, and you don’t really know who that’s going to or what it’s for.

We’ve seen things like the rise of subscription traps, where firms will make it very easy to sign up for a subscription, or you’ll be enrolled without even knowing, and then to cancel you have to jump through all of the hoops. And so, you know, there was a focus on some of these just bread and butter consumer protection issues. And so some of the first executive orders that the mayor signed were directing his administration across the board to be very focused on making sure that we had fair pricing, and that people were not being taken advantage of in this way, be it in the context of food delivery, be it in the context of housing.

The administration is doing these rental rip-off hearings to really hear from people about what are some of the worst abuses that they face from their landlords, be it in the context of these random fees or even in just, you know, basic conditions and habitability. So there is a corporate accountability plank to the affordability agenda that the mayor has been very open about wanting to double down on.

Then there’s a part of the affordability agenda that’s really about making sure that markets are fair and honest, and that in areas like housing, you know, that you can actually build. He’s also very focused on small business, and making sure that small businesses are not being squeezed, again, be it by arbitrary middlemen or by rules and regulations that are outdated or don’t make sense or were pushed at the behest of big firms, but don’t really make sense for small firms. And so those are just a couple of the kind of core pillars of how they’re thinking about affordability. –

Krugman So some of these things, I mean, food delivery, actually again, I didn’t really look into it until I started doing research for this talk, but food delivery is one of those, it’s a lot like, in some ways, like Amazon. The drivers are atomistic, a large group, and the customers are a large group, but then largely DoorDash and a couple of others just sort of stand in the middle. And it must be very similar issues to the kinds of things you were worried about.

Khan Yeah, there are a lot of analogies between how these dominant platforms operate and abuse their power, be it in the context of food delivery, be it in the context of ride sharing. And so there’s kind of a, you know, take on extractive middlemen, holds, you know, powerful corporations to account component. There is a component that’s about making sure that we don’t have, you know, regulations or red tape that are skewing the market away from allowing small businesses to compete. And then I would also say there’s a pillar that’s thinking about public options, and what are instances in which the state could actually be playing a more assertive role?

So this is, you know, gets to the fact that he talked about having public grocery stores, initially one in every borough, has rolled out plans for universal childcare. And so I would say, you know, there are different components of this, but it very much includes public options.

Krugman Okay, that’s really interesting. So that’s, by the way, that’s a really important point, that one way to deal with these things is to just have the public provide, not socialization, but the availability of a public version.

And so actually tell me what’s happening, I mean on... Sorry, two conflicting thoughts collided there and exploded. Anyway.

Actually tell me, talk about the grocery store thing, ‘cause that’s one of the things that people, you know, some people went wild negatively about. But it’s just a really interesting story about what you’re thinking there.

Khan Yeah, I mean, the mayor, during the campaign, talked about how there were parts of New York City where you have food deserts, and where you don’t really have access to affordable, healthy food. And, you know, one proposal that he put forward on the table was the idea that you could have public provisioning of groceries. And they’d do a pilot, there would be one in every borough. You know, some of the reaction to that was a little bit hysterical. But, you know, we have like, military bases across the countrywhere you have government-owned grocery stores. You know, it’s not as exotic as I think some of the critics assumed it was.

And it really gets to this point of, you know, you wanna make sure that the market is working honestly and fairly

Staff- Sorry to interrupt. Your microphone isn’t working very well. –

Khan Thank you. - Can I get this? - Yeah. You wanna make sure that the market is able to work fairly and honestly and competitively, but in some instances you’re gonna want to have the government also play a role, and basically, you know, provide additional competition. Again, not to own the entire market, but to provide an option and a competitive force in ways that could have a salutary effect too.

Krugman Okay, just another diversion here. But kind of along those lines, one of the things that, you were talking a lot about healthcare in your time at the FTC, and consolidation. And healthcare is an area where New York City actually has a lot of public, there are a lot of public options. I was actually kinda shocked, one of my students when I was teaching my class here did a paper on just how much of the New York City health system is in fact publicly-owned. Have you looked into that? I’m sure you must have.

Khan Yeah, it’s certainly something that is top of mind, as the mayor and his administration think about, you know, how do we make sure that the biggest, you know, pain points for people in terms of their monthly bills are being taken care of. Healthcare of course is a major one. And especially given what’s happening in DC resulting in, you know, skyrocketing premiums,

I think there’s a special obligation to make sure that cities and governments are using the full might of their leverage and authority to bring down prices. You know, you’ve seen even places like California announce things like public provisioning of insulin. During the recent governor’s race, you had now Governor Spanberger in Virginia talk about wanting to create a publicly-owned pharmacy benefit manager. So there certainly are a lot of proposals on the table that would have the city or the state play a much more muscular role in the direct public provisioning. I think there’s also a question of, once you have that government role, you know, how are you using that leverage?

One thing that the mayor also talked about during the campaign was, you know, wanting to look at things like the nonprofit status of hospitals, and whether that’s something that still fully makes sense, or wanting to make sure that the kind of, you know, hospitals are upholding their end of the bargain in terms of what they’re supposed to follow through on if they’re actually able to organize as nonprofits. So, you know, there’s a lot on the table there too.

Krugman The mayor has actually basically at least gotten, in principle has gotten the pre-K, the free pre-K. But the two big ones that are still very much up in the air, as far as I know. What do I know? I don’t, you know, I just live here. But the two that sort of are in really have gotten people sort of both cheering and wrapped up are the, first of all, the rent stabilization. Let’s talk about that first for a second. How involved have you been in that, and what do you think is happening?

Khan So that’s something that is basically decided by this Rent Guidelines Board. It’s, you know, a board where the mayor gets to appoint certain individuals. He’s announced who he wants to appoint. And so that’s a process that’s gonna play out in terms of them making, you know, independent determinations about what to do. And so that’s still in process.

Krugman Okay, and free buses. That’s the one that, you know, again, people go wild, and it’s really, it’s an interesting discussion. Do you wanna, do you have anything to say about that? Probably not. Well, tell me where you are on that. I don’t mean not to wanna talk about it, but I’m not sure if that’s, how much that’s in your wheelhouse, but.

Khan Yeah, I mean, you know, I think he has made the case for it very effectively in terms of just the enormous externalities in terms of the huge benefits that arise from having buses that are fast and free, and just why that’s so important for kind of, you know, making the city a better place to live. That is something that is kind of wrapped up in these broader budgetary discussions involving Albany. And so, you know, something that I’ll say, just stepping back, as you look across these different policy levers and authorities, there are some that are more unilaterally within the mayor’s control, or at least where control resides at the city level, so all you need is kind of city council plus the mayor. And then there are ones that really require the buy-in and agreement of Albany, be it the governor, be it the state assembly. And so it’s kind of a tapestry of what things can he do unilaterally versus kind of has to work very closely with other actors. –

Krugman Well, that kind of brings me to where I was planning to go anyway, which is the, you know, obviously you’re quite a heck of an economist, when that arises. But your background is law. And one of the things at least press reports suggest that you’ve really been doing is looking for, basically exploring what are the mayor’s powers? Anything you wanna talk about? ‘Cause that’s a really interesting, you know, kind of thing, that takes a lot of expertise that many of us don’t have. But how has that search gone? –

Khan Yeah, I mean, it’s really a project that is informed by my experience at the federal level, where I was pretty stunned to come into federal government and see all sorts of federal authorities, so laws that Congress had passed instructing federal agencies to enforce certain laws that had just been forgotten about. And you know, the laws existed on the books, but were not actively being enforced by agencies, sometimes because there was a sense that, oh, this has kind of fallen out of fashion, sometimes it just never was really prioritized by political leadership. And so, you know, oftentimes, especially in places like DC there’s a huge amount of conversation and discussion about new laws, and the need for new legislation, and we need, you know, Congress to do this and that. And I think that can sometimes detract from a real focus on what laws already exist, what tools already exist, what authorities already exist?

And so, you know, at the FTC, for example, we were very focused even on things like making sure companies are not lying about whether their products are made in America. This is something that Congress back in 1994 had instructed the FTC to start enforcing against, basically, you know, if a business is saying its products are made in America, but they’re actually made in China, you know, that’s illegal and they should be penalized. And there are certain consumer protection elements of that, but it’s also about creating a fair marketplace so that businesses that are honest are not losing out to firms that are being dishonest.

And so that was, you know, one thing that just the agency had not prioritized even enforcing that, you know, during my tenure we took more seriously. There were all sorts of other examples of, you know, laws that Congress had passed, you know, instructions they had given the FTC in terms of what to enforce. There’s this law that goes back to the Great Depression, the Robinson-Patman Act, that’s really about making sure we don’t have illegal forms of price discrimination, and that small businesses are having the same opportunities as large businesses in terms of the deals that are being offered. That’s something that the government stopped enforcing basically in the late 1990s. And we would actually have general counsels admit to us that they didn’t even advise their firms to abide by this law because there was just so much non-enforcement. And they were basically like, until and unless you guys start enforcing it, we’re not even gonna tell our executives that they have to follow this law.

So, you know, there was just a real sense of wanting to make sure we were using all of our tools, being faithful to the laws that Congress had passed, that kind of informed my desire to make sure that this mayoral administration was similarly gonna be kind of faithful, you know, executors of the laws that already exist. As well as wanting to make sure that, you know, given his focus on affordability, on wanting to make sure that, you know, working class New Yorkers can live here comfortably and with dignity, that he knew all of the tools and authorities that he has at his disposal to do that.

Krugman And are there any good examples comparable to sort of Robinson-Patman Act that are mayoral prerogatives that have not been exercised?

Khan Well interestingly, there are some city council efforts right now to think about whether there should be a New York City level of Robinson-Patman. So, you know, there are some discussions about that. You know, there’s a law that bans unconscionable practices in New York City that goes back to the 1970s that basically can presumably be activated to take on forms of unfair or, you know, unconscionable pricing, especially in context where people might be captive consumers. And so imagine a situation in which, you know, you’re a patient at a hospital, the hospital gives you, you know, some kind of Tylenol, but they end up billing like $60 for even though it costs, you know, $6 at the pharmacy down the street. You know, is that an unconscionable practice because you are basically a captive customer? Or similarly if you’re, you know, at a stadium or a concert venue, when you just have much fewer options, are there certain rules that firms should really be following in terms of how they do pricing? So that’s just kind of one bucket of, you know, of potential tools that may exist.

Krugman I’m sure that other people have suggested this, but there a little bit of an analogy, which you might not like, to Robert Moses, who was famously, you know, was expert at reading the fine print in legislation and finding things he could do. And there’s a little, I mean, hopefully with better intentions. But do you ever think of yourself as being sort of the good version of Robert Moses?

Khan I mean, I think, you know, any lawyer will think their job is to read the fine print very closely. And you know, I think when you’re coming into these types of jobs, there’s such an enormous responsibility, and oftentimes not a lot of time, right? You don’t know how much time you’re gonna have. And I think, you know, when you are elected with as strong a mandate as Mayor Mamdani has, I think you really have a huge obligation to make sure that you really are mining every single tool and authority that may exist to make life better for people. And that’s something he’s very committed to.

Krugman So the whole, I assume you must be thinking about this, but the whole concern, particularly, you know, if you read Murdoch publications and so on, is that all of this attempt to serve affordability, to help the working class, is gonna lead the businesses and the wealthy to flee the city. How are you feeling about all of that? Any comments on that?

Khan I mean, it’s interesting. I think we’ve heard a lot of speculation about that. I mean, the business press that I’ve read has suggested that actually we see kind of major, you know, Fortune 100 companies actually re-upping their leases and expanding their physical footprint in New York City rather than fleeing. The mayor’s point has also been that we’re already seeing an exodus in New York City, and that’s an exodus of working class people. And shouldn’t we be worried about working class people having to flee too? I think-- (audience applauding) You know, he’s also shared that in conversations with some of these same CEOs, they’ve recognized that policies that make New York City more affordable ultimately are gonna be good for their business oftentimes too, in as much as it allows more of their employees to actually live here and really expands the talent pool. So, you know, I think you’re always gonna hear some of that grumbling, and sometimes even hysteria. And of course, you wanna look closely at the research and, you know, at the empirics of what might actually happen. But I think, you know, there is a lot of evidence suggesting that some of these policies are gonna have just much greater impact than harm.

Krugman Okay, I can’t resist. One of my favorite lines in all this was, you know, some businesses actually have moved to Florida, but there was some Wall Street type who tried it and said, “The problem with moving to Florida is that you have to live in Florida.” So anyway. Okay, so you’re fairly optimistic that enough businesses and wealthy people see the benefits of a better New York for the people of New York will outweigh whatever taxes they might have to pay or regulations they might face.

Khan I mean, I think there are a whole bunch of data points that point in that direction, yes.

Krugman Thank you so much! It’s been great.

Khan Thank you.

Quoting Kyle Daigle

[GitHub] platform activity is surging. There were 1 billion commits in 2025. Now, it's 275 million per week, on pace for 14 billion this year if growth remains linear (spoiler: it won't.)

GitHub Actions has grown from 500M minutes/week in 2023 to 1B minutes/week in 2025, and now 2.1B minutes so far this week.

Kyle Daigle, COO, GitHub

Tags: github, github-actions

Vulnerability Research Is Cooked

Vulnerability Research Is Cooked

Thomas Ptacek's take on the sudden and enormous impact the latest frontier models are having on the field of vulnerability research.

Within the next few months, coding agents will drastically alter both the practice and the economics of exploit development. Frontier model improvement won’t be a slow burn, but rather a step function. Substantial amounts of high-impact vulnerability research (maybe even most of it) will happen simply by pointing an agent at a source tree and typing “find me zero days”.

Why are agents so good at this? A combination of baked-in knowledge, pattern matching ability and brute force:

You can't design a better problem for an LLM agent than exploitation research.

Before you feed it a single token of context, a frontier LLM already encodes supernatural amounts of correlation across vast bodies of source code. Is the Linux KVM hypervisor connected to the hrtimer subsystem, workqueue, or perf_event? The model knows.

Also baked into those model weights: the complete library of documented "bug classes" on which all exploit development builds: stale pointers, integer mishandling, type confusion, allocator grooming, and all the known ways of promoting a wild write to a controlled 64-bit read/write in Firefox.

Vulnerabilities are found by pattern-matching bug classes and constraint-solving for reachability and exploitability. Precisely the implicit search problems that LLMs are most gifted at solving. Exploit outcomes are straightforwardly testable success/failure trials. An agent never gets bored and will search forever if you tell it to.

The article was partly inspired by this episode of the Security Cryptography Whatever podcast, where David Adrian, Deirdre Connolly, and Thomas interviewed Anthropic's Nicholas Carlini for 1 hour 16 minutes.

I just started a new tag here for ai-security-research - it's up to 11 posts already.

Tags: security, thomas-ptacek, careers, ai, generative-ai, llms, nicholas-carlini, ai-ethics, ai-security-research

The cognitive impact of coding agents

A fun thing about recording a podcast with a professional like Lenny Rachitsky is that his team know how to slice the resulting video up into TikTok-sized short form vertical videos. Here's one he shared on Twitter today which ended up attracting over 1.1m views!

That was 48 seconds. Our full conversation lasted 1 hour 40 minutes.

Tags: ai-ethics, coding-agents, agentic-engineering, generative-ai, podcast-appearances, ai, llms, cognitive-debt

Donald Trump Isn't Sounding Like Himself

Donald Trump isn’t sounding like himself, and that’s terrifying. Hi, Paul Krugman here with a brief update on Saturday afternoon.

Not my usual thing. No economics, no analytics, just I felt I needed to say something. On Wednesday, Trump gave a speech, which was... pretty depressing. He was low energy, listless, and seemed to be disconnected from reality, insisting that everything is going great in this war and everything is going great across the board. And in terms of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, well, it’s somebody else’s problem. And the Strait may naturally open by itself, which didn’t sound like leadership.

In some ways it sounded like Trump, always living in a fantasy world in which things are going his way. But if you thought about the outcome for the world, it seemed to be pointing towards the U.S. never admitting it openly, but implicitly basically giving up and leaving a stronger Iran, but with the Strait of Hormuz opening up — maybe with tolls collected by the regime in Iran, and just a diminished, weakened U.S., but better than some of the alternatives.

Today Trump put up a Truth Social post, which said that if Iran doesn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, “all hell will reign down on them.” That was how he put it. All hell will rain down. Misspelled rain, but OK. And then finished it up with glory be to God. GOD in caps.

Wow. So first of all, this is a completely different picture suddenly. Aside from the Strait of Hormuz not being our problem to we will commit massive war crimes, presumably. That’s the only thing that makes sense here, unless they open it up, which is pretty bad.

And also... I don’t think Trump has ever said “glory be to God.” That doesn’t sound like him. That sounds almost as if Pete Hegseth wrote this post, which maybe in some sense he did. The misspellings and all do look like Trump in his own hand, but it feels like this is the influence of our religious fanatic Secretary of War, or as people in the Pentagon apparently call him the Secretary of War Crimes.

This is really bad. It’s hard to see what happens in 48 hours. It’s clear that Trump, for all his pretense of, “I’m always winning,” is aware of how completely he screwed things up, that he’s aware that he has basically led America into an epic strategic defeat. I don’t think he cares about that from the point of view of America, but he is realizing what this has done to him — that he will probably quite rapidly lose his grip on U.S., politics, and certainly to the extent that he cares about his legacy, it’s not going to be his wonderful ballroom. It’s going to be that he’s the man who single-handedly led America to one of its greatest defeats ever. But now what?

It would be one thing if he just kind of slunk away into the night, which is what we would have hoped would happen, but instead it sounds like he’s unable to accept it and that he is going to try and do something truly awful in an attempt to somehow redeem himself and the situation.

If we had a functioning democracy, this would be 25th Amendment time. This guy should not have any authority at all. Finger on the button, although I don’t think we’re talking about nukes, but he shouldn’t have any authority on matters of state violence when this is the kind of mood he’s in. Just in general, although religiosity is often expected of American leaders, saying glory be to God before you unleash violence, that is not what used to be the American way.

Anyway, I’m scared. I wonder very much what the next few days will bring because this is looking like basically a president who is losing it and unfortunately losing it in a way that can really make the world a much worse place very fast.

I guess enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Economic growth and the rise of large firms

Rich and poor countries differ in the size distribution of business firms. This paper shows that the right tail of the firm size distribution systematically grows thicker with economic development, both within countries over time and across countries. The author develops a simple idea search model with both endogenous growth and an endogenous firm size distribution. The economy features an asymptotic balanced growth path. Along the transition, Gibrat’s law holds at each date, and the right tail of the firm size distribution becomes monotonically thicker. The firm size distribution converges to Zipf’s distribution. The model also implies that policies favouring large firms can improve welfare due to the externality associated with idea search. Finally, the author extends the results obtained in the simple model to a general class of idea search models. Under common functional form assumptions, this model stands out as the only model within that class that is consistent with both Gibrat’s law and a thickening right tail.

That is by Zhang Chen, and a revised version will be appearing in Econometrica.

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Saturday assorted links

1. Nyege Nyege Tapes.

2. Does it help poets to be religious?

3. Martin Jay on Habermas.

4. U.S. prime age employment rate is near an all-time high.  For a different perspective, here is NYT on AI and the job market.  And new measures of AI task performance from MIT.

5. China’s AI education experiment.

6. Real retail U.S. electricity prices have fallen since 2010.

7. Compare ride-share prices.

8. Is Mandarin being Europeanized?

9. 2000 or so additional pages of Leibniz will be published.

10. The game theory of the NCAA EO.

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Free Speech for ‘Gay Conversion’

Conversion Therapy Ruling Tests Free Speech Limits

Earlier this week, the majority-conservative Supreme Court ruled 8-1 that Colorado’s laws barring therapists from talking to minor clients about “gay conversion” had stepped over lines insisting on freedom of speech.

Colorado’s 2019 law, which targeted “conversion therapy,” reached deep into the conversations between mental health counselors and their clients under age 18. Therapists could face discipline or fines for saying things to change their clients’ “behaviors or gender expressions or to eliminate or reduce sexual or romantic attractions toward individuals of the same sex.”

Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, who wrote the opinion for the court, said therapists can “affirm a client’s sexual orientation,” but cannot be prohibited “from speaking in any way that helps a client ‘change’ his sexual attractions or behaviors.” He called it “viewpoint discrimination,” making a distinction between information about medical treatment and treatments themselves.

Clearly, “gay conversion” is promoted as good social and medical policy by the political right.

Liberals Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan concurred about the overreach of the law  but warned that the decision “enables ‘speech on only one side’ — the State’s preferred side — of an ideologically charged issue.” Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson objected because the health of minors will be adversely affected.

Gay conversion therapy has been widely discredited as ineffective and possibly harmful by medical organizations, including the American Medical Association, the American Psychological Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics.

The case goes back to a lower court for review.

Not Free Speech for All

So, how does this support for free speech affect issues when conservatives oppose them?

But the same speech protections apparently do not apply to medical treatments that conservatives oppose.  Among the various states that have adopted laws restricting abortion, for example, several have outlawed providing information about abortions or ways to obtain medical treatments out of state. The feds have joined states in barring money for Planned Parenthood, among other clinics, because they include advice as well as treatments.

While providing general information about euthanasia often is seen as protected free speech, state and federal laws say assisting, advising, or encouraging suicide is criminal behavior in most states. The federal Assisted Suicide Ban Act restricts funding for promoting assisted suicide.

Laws abound surrounding “quack medicine” towards preventing deceptive promotion as well as fraud and illegal practice, particularly when promoting unproven treatments as effective for diagnosing or curing diseases. But it is perfectly okay in this version of free speech to appoint people who know nothing about vaccine safety to set policy that violates every teaching of science and medicine.

Obviously, the political right seeks bans on referring to – not just hiring and promotion actions — diversity, equity and inclusion issues in schools and universities, in libraries and museums, or to issues of fairness in private sector hiring. For a state legislature to insist on specific limitations on college curriculum is specifically to abridge freedom of speech as well as the academic freedoms to explore disparate theories in a way that makes universities essential.

The Court’s argument is that it only rules on specific cases that make it to its review. But the Court picks its cases understanding that its guidance has wider implications. The court majority would say this case warns about “aggressive” attack on conservative therapist.

The rest of us might see the decision as picking just whose free speech is protected.

Frequently Asked Questions On this Conversion Therapy Ruling

Q: What did the Supreme Court rule about conversion therapy?
A: The Court ruled that Colorado’s law restricting what therapists can say to minors about changing sexual orientation violated free speech protections.

Q: Is conversion therapy considered safe or effective?
A: Major medical organizations say conversion therapy is ineffective and can be harmful.

Q: Why is this ruling controversial?
A: Critics argue it creates inconsistencies in how free speech is protected, especially compared to restrictions on other medical topics.

Q: What happens next in the case?
A: The case returns to a lower court for further review based on the Supreme Court’s guidance.


Trump’s War with Iran

As we saw, Donald Trump’s choice for a national television address Wednesday night on the war with Iran clearly fell flat. It neither won new supporters nor did it clarify the murkiness before us in exiting from conflict that still lacks immediate purpose.

Since the speech:

–The strategic outlook remained dicey. Though Trump talked about having achieved all his goals, we face more fighting with promises to bomb Iran into the “stone ages” (technically history says there were three) towards no apparent end. It seemed as likely as not that Trump would greenlight sending in the Marines gathered in the region. The speech did nothing to clarify the gap between military success and diplomatic ends and it underscored that Iran would have its own say about when conflict ends. Trump did nothing to court the very allies he now expects to jump in to clear the Strait of Hormuz where Iran halted shipping in response to his preemptive attack.

–Militarily, the U.S. hit bridges and vowed to hit utilities and desalination plants as bombing resumed. Two U.S. warplanes crashed after being hit, including a F15E fighter jet, with a rescue under fire of one airman and another still missing. We saw mixed reports about Iran’s ability to recover from strikes on mobile missile launchers, raising questions about U.S. claims of destruction and wonder about whether Iran has the ability to hide its weapons and targeting equipment.

–The economic roiling continues, Financial futures markets  and the general markets continued their slide and oil worries increased.

–Unaddressed entirely ware Israel’s continuing conflicts, including an apparent desire to occupy or annex a 25-mile stretch of Lebanon.

–Politically, Trump’s speech did nothing to widen support, and, indeed, drew attention to his own image as an aging isolationist cut off from being able to take in information as needed.

It made us wonder why the speech was needed at all. It neither formally extended nor ended the war, and it just made for more worry about uncertainty.


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Artemis 2 in good shape cruising towards the moon

Artemis 2 image of Earth

A day after lighting its engine to head to the moon, the Artemis 2 Orion spacecraft is performing well with only minor issues.

The post Artemis 2 in good shape cruising towards the moon appeared first on SpaceNews.

Nonfiction Publishing, Under Threat, Is More Important Than Ever (New Republic)

 As an author with a forthcoming non-fiction book, it's both depressing to read that non-fiction book sales are down, but inspiring to read of the importance of books.

The New Republic considers the (diminishing) prospects and (continuing) importance of non-fiction books.

Nonfiction Publishing, Under Threat, Is More Important Than Ever
Cuts in publishing and book reviewing imperil the future of narrative nonfiction, and our understanding of the world around us. 
 by Paul Elie

 “The decline in sales of new nonfiction might reflect a changing information ecosystem,” Elizabeth Harris observed. “People looking for information can now easily turn to chatbots, YouTube, podcasts and other free online sources.” Last December, The Guardian cited NielsenIQ figures indicating a one-year drop of 8.4 percent in nonfiction book sales (twice that of fiction) and quoted a writer who had “heard publishers have soured on any nonfiction that isn’t ‘Hollywood friendly.’”

... 

"Fretful narratives about the demise of books and the rise of devices have been in play for half a century or longer. “Our world of books, like most other worlds now, is the arena of an increasingly bitter struggle for space, and for the limited reading time that a busy citizen in this electronic age can afford,” John Updike lamented when accepting the American Book Award in 1982. Narrative nonfiction in particular has faced headwinds in mass culture before. And in many respects, the challenges it faces are built in. Long fact is hard to publish and always has been. Reportage and research take time, resources, attention, and fortitude. A book can require several years to write and another year and a half to be edited, checked, printed, and publicized—only to wind up coming out during a news cycle dominated by a sex scandal, school shooting, pandemic, or war. It was as true half a century ago as it is today that readers expect to pay for fiction but are used to getting nonfiction passively through the media. 

...

"In societies where freedom is under threat, an informed citizen is countercultural and deep reading is an act of resistance. Just as protest and vigilance are essential, so is the ability to read and think. In a would-be autocracy, the autocrat aims to subsume our society’s particular narratives into his master narrative—in which his name fills the headlines, his voice and image dominate the broadcasts, and his airbrushed visage appears on the facades of government. To read a book, however, is to enter a narrative that stands outside the politics-and-media maelstrom. In a would-be autocracy, even a small bookstore—with hundreds of books, classic, recent, and current—is a space of contrary narratives, where truth is recognized as both essential and complicated." 

Advice for economics graduate students (and faculty?) vis-a-vis AI

From Isiah Andrews, via Emily Oster and the excellent Samir Varma.  A good piece, though I think it needs to more explicitly consider the most likely case, namely that the models are better at all intellectual tasks, including “taste,” or whatever else might be knockin’ around in your noggin…I am still seeing massive copium.  But the models still are not able to “operate in the actual world as a being.”  Those are the complementarities you need to be looking for, namely how you as a physical entity can enhance the superpowers of your model, or should I express that the other way around?  That might include gathering data in the field, persuading a politician, or raising money.  I am sure you can think of examples on your own.

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How should you change your life decisions if we are being watched by alien drone probes?

I’ve asked a few people that question lately, and get either no answer or very exaggerated answers.

Rep. Burchett recently raised the possibility of being terrified and not sleeping at night if UAPs are aliens.  But even if that is your immediate response, you need a more constructive medium-term adjustment to the new situation.

One option would be to pray to the aliens as gods, but I do not recommend that.

Another option is to not change anything, on the grounds that the aliens (probably?) have not been interfering in earthly affairs.  Or if they have been interfering, they might be interfering in steady ways which are compatible with you continuing your previous life course.

That is mostly a defensible stance, but it hardly seems a true marginalist should make zero adjustments in light of the new and very radical piece of information.  If nothing else, you need to consider that other people will in time respond, and you will in turn want a response to their choices.

A third option is to write more about the aliens, so that when their presence is (partially?) revealed, you will rise in status and influence.

Should you buy more insurance?  But against what exactly?

Hold more defense stocks in your portfolio, if you anticipate more defense spending as the pending human reaction to the revelations?

Consume more?  Maybe.

The most plausible decision however is to slightly lower your level of ambition.  Consider a few of the core scenarios.

If the aliens go rogue on us and end it all, the efforts you might be making now will have been for naught.

If the aliens are here to cap the level of human achievement, for instance to keep us on Earth and prevent us from exploring the galaxy, yet without harm, you also can scale back your ambition a bit.  You do not need to invest so much capital in supporting the space program.  Most of your more local ambitions however should remain untouched.  You might even become more ambitious in keeping the Earth a safe place, since escape hatches are now less likely.  Alternatively, you might think the aliens are our “saviors of last resort,” but that too probably makes you less ambitious.

A more general Bayesian update is simply that human efforts, in the broader scheme of things, have lower relative marginal products than you might have thought.  The aliens apparently have lots of powers, at least if they managed to get here.  That too militates in favor of lowering your ambitions.  Conversely, if you start believing we are the only intelligent, agentic beings in the galaxy, arguably you should increase your ambitions.  There will be fewer outside forces to stop, limit, or reverse your efforts.

To be clear, in this Bayesian update large numbers of people still should increase their ambitions, since they were not optimizing in the first place.  But they should increase those ambitions slightly less than one used to think.  And in some areas, perhaps they should not increase their ambitions at all.

Finally, you should not decrease your ambitions a lot.  For one thing, you may need an ongoing high level of energy and ambition to deal with the changes that aliens — or even the perceptions of alien presence — will bring to earthly civilization.  Furthermore, since any alien-induced uncertainty about the future is very hard to model, most people will do best by simply continuing on their current tracks.  It makes no sense to start waving around a sword to scare off the alien drone probes.

Nonetheless, some of your more extreme ambitions should be carved back just a wee bit.  Sorry about that.

I guess it is a good thing nobody is watching then.

Addendum: For this post I am indebted to a useful lunch conversation with Robin Hanson, Bryan Caplan, and Alex T.

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NSF update

The White House seeks to slash the NSF budget by nearly 55%, to $4 billion. The proposal also cuts all funding for the NSF division that funds research on the social sciences and economics. At an internal all-hands meeting on Friday, NSF leaders announced that they would dissolve the agency’s Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences directorate based on the budget request, according to two NSF staff members who shared information anonymously in order to speak freely.

Here is the full story.

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Trump proposes steep cut to NASA budget as astronauts head for the Moon

President Donald Trump released a budget blueprint on Friday calling for a 23 percent cut to NASA's budget, two days after the agency launched four astronauts on the first crewed lunar mission in more than 50 years.

The spending proposal for fiscal year 2027 is the opening salvo in a multi-month budget process. Both houses of Congress must pass their own appropriations bills, reconcile any differences between the two, and then send the final budget to the White House for President Trump's signature. Fiscal year 2027 begins on October 1.

The White House requested a similar cut to NASA last year. The Republican-led Congress resoundingly rejected the proposal and kept NASA's budget close to its level in the final year of the Biden administration. Like last year's budget, the proposal from the Trump administration will undergo major changes as Congress weighs in over the coming months.

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The party is still going on in spiral galaxy NGC 3310.  The party is still going on in spiral galaxy NGC 3310.


Material Security

My thanks to Material Security for sponsoring this week at DF. Most security teams don’t have a talent problem, they have a noise problem. Manual phishing remediation, chasing risky OAuth permissions, and auditing file shares shouldn’t be a full-time job.

Material Security unifies your cloud workspace, bringing detection and response for email, files, and accounts into one place. It’s security that actually works: augmenting the native gaps in Google and Microsoft without the usual enterprise bloat. Stop fighting fragmented consoles and start focusing on strategy. It’s time to simplify your SecOps.

See for yourself how Material scales.

 ★ 

Critical Fire Weather Conditions in the Southern Plains; Showers and Thunderstorms Linger Over Florida