Trump’s Wars of Whim, And How He Loses Them

There’s been a blizzard of commentary about the breakdown of U.S.-Canadian trade talks. Friend of TPM Paul Krugman has a good rundown of just how dependent the U.S. is on key Canadian exports — oil, lumber, hydropower electricity in addition to many other commodities. Of course, the U.S. is a net exporter of oil. But that’s in aggregate. As Paul explains, the details aren’t that simple. The upper Midwest gets most of its oil from Canada while a lot of oil produced in Texas, Louisiana and the Gulf Coast gets exported. These patterns could only be changed over many years and then at great expense. There are similar embedded dependencies on lumber and electricity. Then there are things like potash (for agriculture and some industrial production) where the U.S. gets almost all of its supply from Canada.

Of course, so far this is all hypothetical. Canada isn’t pulling these levers. The U.S. is conspicuously avoiding placing tariffs on these supplies on which it has a critical dependence. But that only highlights U.S. vulnerability. Nothing is stopping Canada from pulling those levers as Trump’s trade war of whim heats up.

What is striking about this picture, setting aside all these nitty-gritty details, is how much it mirrors Trump’s Iran debacle, another war not so much of choice but of whim. Both illustrate the difference between theoretical and de facto power. On paper, the U.S. could convincingly defeat Iran militarily. It could invade the country, dismantle its military and government, eliminate the threats to the Strait of Hormuz. But that would require vast sums of blood and treasure, in addition to huge domestic economic pain, something the U.S. simply has no appetite for. That lack of appetite became clear soon after the war started and it’s shaped everything since. There’s zero domestic support for that in the U.S. And the U.S. has no pressing strategic interest to do that, certainly not at the cost it would require. Meanwhile, the Iranian government is in a fight for its life. America’s capacity to inflict pain on Iran is immense. But Iran’s willingness to endure pain is far greater.

This almost perfectly mirrors Canada’s current position vis a vis the U.S. The U.S. economy dwarfs Canada’s. The impact of an all-out trade war on Canada is vastly greater than the impact on the U.S. But Canada’s whole society and politics are consumed with this issue. That is even more the case when it emerged over the weekend that Trump is not only demanding unequal trade terms but attacking Canadian sovereignty in the form of demanding an end to domestic protections for the French language and a veto over Canadian trade deals with other countries. If anything, Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to keep up with popular anger at the U.S. rather than getting the Canadian public to back up his hard line.

Meanwhile, most Americans only barely know this is even going on. When they hear about it their reaction is mainly bafflement. Like, ‘I’m confused. Why is this happening?’ That is probably one half the ordinary privilege of superpowerdom in which people barely have to pay much attention to what’s happening beyond their borders and one half the fact, that for those do pay attention to these things, our own country is in the midst of being dynamited and/or sold off or stripped for parts. Carney’s approval numbers were just below 60% before this latest crisis; I’d assume they’re a bit higher now, as they generally peak during moments of confrontation with the U.S. So basically the inverse of Trump’s, which are in the mid-30s.

A country can withstand a lot of pain when it’s invested in or feels it has no choice but to fight a war, whether its literal armed combat or a trade war. The U.S. can barely withstand comparatively modest hikes in fuel costs because very few Americans think the U.S. should have started this war in the first place. This is the actual measure of national power: Not the absolute measure of a military or GDP but popular and elite will to endure the inevitable hardships of any conflict.

Let me close on a personal note. I wrote two posts over the weekend about the breakdown of negotiations and the incipient trade war. In response to these posts and discussing them on social media, I had several fairly acrimonious encounters with Canadians in which the reader either caught a shard of a conversation and thought I was arguing against Canada’s position or zeroed in on a piece of text and insisted it was an example of American indifference to or myopia about Canada. One I think occasional reader wrote in and insisted that a sentence about the size of the Canadian economy compared to America’s was actually claiming that I meant Canada was a geographically small country when in fact it’s the largest country, by landmass, in the world. These encounters were exasperating in the particular but edifying in the aggregate. In each case I’d try to say something to the effect of, “Wait, no, I’m arguing your side of this. What we’re doing here is stupid and wrong,” before realizing there was no point.

To be clear, I’m not saying that Canadians have some national deficit in reading comprehension. I’m noting that the fury is so intense that it bleeds through in the sort of ordinary quibbles over wording or minor misunderstandings that are commonplace for any kind of public writing but with a mammoth intensity and even with Americans who are trying to argue their case. It helped confirm and illustrate to me what is already crystal-clear in public opinion polls, anecdotal accounts and the actions of the Canadian government. Canadians are full of fury and rage not only over the damage that the U.S. is doing to their economy and livelihoods but because, as Carney has repeatedly made clear, it is a thoroughly unprovoked and unjustified attack on a friendly neighbor which has stood by the U.S. in basically every conflict the U.S. has fought in for a century and is as thoroughly integrated into our national, economic and cultural lives as any country on earth. As I’ve argued here, Canada’s position is probably much stronger than it looks. But that will be at the cost of immense pain we’re inflicting for no reason or justification. And it won’t be forgotten for a long, long time.

BitCam: The 1-Bit Camera App Turns 2.0

10 years ago I wrote about BitCam 1.0:

Gorgeous, unbelievably faithful one-bit camera app for iPhone done in the style of the original Mac. A lovely tribute to Bill Atkinson’s remarkable dithering algorithm. “Catnip for old-school Mac users,” says John Siracusa. Check out the fun recent-hire-at-Apple Chris Espinosa is having with it.

Originally a creation of The Iconfactory, BitCam is now in the good hands of Héliographe (coiners of the best icon-design zinger ever). Version 2.0 has everything great about BitCam 1, and so much more. Just a wonderful ode to the original Mac, with so much extraordinary attention to detail. Great fun on the iPhone (especially as a camera), and great fun on the Mac (especially to explore the details of its OG-style UI). Free to download on the App Store, and a one-time purchase of just $10 to unlock the full feature set.

If BitCam doesn’t speak to you, you’re not hooked up right.

 ★ 

Common sense in charge

…children are increasingly seen as interfering with the freedom of parents; views on whether mothers of young children should work have become markedly more progressive and account for a substantially larger share of the decline among the tertiary-educated; and fewer people believe that women or men need children to lead a fulfilled life. This last attitude changed most over the decade and is the largest contributor to the fall in intended fertility, above all among less-educated women.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Raquel Fernández, Inés Berniell, and Milagros Onofri.

The post Common sense in charge appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Not Good

Jewish Insider, the source of this passage, often has what I’d consider tendentious coverage of this issue. But these words from Hasan Piker really speak for themselves …

In his commentary, Piker added that Jews who tie their “entire identity” to Israel, which he referred to as “Jewish ISIS,” are “making antisemitism worse.” 

“People don’t f*** with Israel any longer,” Piker said two hours into his nearly seven-hour stream on Thursday. “If Jews in America keep putting this idea out there that they are singularly invested in Israel, eventually someone’s going to come around and take action, not against the State of Israel, mind you, but against American Jews.”

“I don’t know how people don’t recognize how dangerous this predicament is, how dangerous this is for Jews,” Piker continued. “You’re running around basically tying your entire identity to a country that inevitably will be seen as Jewish ISIS and you’re saying, as Jews, this is all we care about. You’re making antisemitism worse.” 

Piker has a long-standing history of antisemitic rhetoric — including justifying Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attacks and calling Orthodox Jews “inbred,” a comment he recently defended in an interview with the far-left outlet Zeteo: “I have a policy of using pejoratives when describing any kind of like ethno, racial supremacist groups,” he said. He has also stated that he would “vote for Hamas over Israel every single time,” describing Hamas as “a thousand times better than a fascist settler colonial apartheid state.” 

MAIA Air Sensor at Work in Addis Ababa

1 Min Read

MAIA Air Sensor at Work in Addis Ababa

An air quality monitoring sensor mounted on a rooftop stands in front of a dense urban skyline, capturing atmospheric data. The sensor is semi-cylindrical white object several inches across, mounted on a tall rust-colored pole.
PIA26698
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Description

This roof-mounted air sensor in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, is one of 10 used by NASA’s Multi-Angle Imager for Aerosols (MAIA) to study the city’s air quality. MAIA’s air sensors provide a detailed look at particulate matter that is 2.5 micrometers or less in diameter, also known as PM2.5, one of the world’s deadliest forms of air pollution.

Black carbon, or soot, is an important component of particulate pollution in Addis Ababa and is produced by diesel vehicles, fires, and other combustion sources. Detailed measurements from the MAIA air sensors reveal how pollution changes by time of day and season, including spikes produced by rush-hour traffic and holiday celebrations. The findings are relevant to cities around the world, including in the United States.

The 2025 State of Global Air Report, cited in the paper, estimates that these particles, some of which are tiny enough to enter the human bloodstream, are linked to around 4.9 million excess deaths per year globally. Of the many kinds of PM2.5, black carbon in particular has been linked to impacts on low birth weight, brain development, respiratory conditions, and premature mortality.

The post MAIA Air Sensor at Work in Addis Ababa appeared first on NASA Science.

Mapping Air Pollution With MAIA Sensors in Addis Ababa

2 Min Read

Mapping Air Pollution With MAIA Sensors in Addis Ababa

A geographic map of Addis Ababa displays localized PM2.5 pollution levels, using a color bar ranging from yellow to red highlighting air quality variations from 20 to 40 micrograms per cubic meter across 10 monitoring stations.
PIA26694
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Description

This map of Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, shows the locations of 10 air sensors that NASA’s Multi-Angle Imager for Aerosols (MAIA) mission is using to provide one of the most detailed looks ever at the city’s air pollution. Over the course of three years, these sensors measured particulate matter that is 2.5 micrometers or less in diameter, also known as PM2.5. Black carbon, or soot, is an important component of particulate pollution in Addis Ababa, which studies have linked to impacts on low birth weight, brain development, respiratory conditions, and premature mortality.

The color bar at right indicates air quality variations from 20 to 40 micrograms per cubic meter across the monitoring stations, with the darkest red being the poorest air quality.

In Ethiopia, black carbon is commonly produced by diesel vehicles, fires, and other combustion sources. Detailed measurements from the MAIA sensors reveal how Addis Ababa’s air pollution changes by time of day and season, including spikes produced by rush-hour traffic and holiday celebrations. The findings are relevant to cities around the world, including in the United States.

MAIA’s air pollution research is focused on a dozen regions around the globe, including three in the U.S. centered on Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Boston. The mission consists of a ground-based sensor network already in operation as well as a space observatory, which uses a camera built at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, that will be launched by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) on an ASI satellite no earlier than late 2027. The camera is specially designed to help identify different types of PM2.5 aerosols based on how they reflect light, making it possible to map particle concentrations over each region that the mission studies.

The post Mapping Air Pollution With MAIA Sensors in Addis Ababa appeared first on NASA Science.

Fences, not Sandboxes

I’m here to give you a glimpse of a future that I think none of us expected. It’s a future where AIs are governed by laws, not by programs that try to contain and control them.

First, my secret: I see the future by living in it. I am spending the equivalent of $122k/month of API token spend, or about $4,000 per day, using 21 Claude Max accounts, a number that has been growing steadily at 2 per week. I’m using them to build my video game, Wyvern, which I’ve worked on for 30 years, and now it’s ready to fly.

For ten weeks, I’ve used Claude Fable 5 exclusively for all my design and planning, and also for agents that interface with humans. I have built a team of 18 “officer” seats, all Heads of This and That, all long-lived Fable instances. I also have mostly-headless Sol and Opus fleets, for implementation, reviews, and monitoring. Fable runs them.

I am running an organization of around 50–60 agents, five of whom are interfacing with around 10 humans in the outside world: myself, my 5-person core game design team, my accountant, my chief of staff, and a few others. Only Fable is allowed to talk to humans, via Slack and email.

This essay continues on my own site — the whole thing, with the illustrations, is here:
https://yegge.ai/essays/fences-not-sandboxes/

New essays land at yegge.ai first from now on, along with the archive of everything back to 2004 and the weekly Wheelhouse comics.

Perseverance Captures Another Phobos Transit

2 Min Read

Perseverance Captures Another Phobos Transit

A dark, irregularly shaped silhouette transits across the lower right portion of a bright orange sun against a pitch-black sky.
PIA26811
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU/MSSS/SSI

Description

NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover used its Mastcam-Z camera to capture the silhouette of Phobos, one of the two Martian moons, as it crossed in front of the Sun on Aug. 12, 2026, the 1,948th Martian day, or sol, of the mission. 

The animation has been tinted to simulate what a human would see if they were watching the transit from the Martian surface through protective solar eclipse glasses.  

Perseverance has captured several Phobos transits since its landing at Jezero Crater in February 2021. By comparing the various recordings, scientists can refine their understanding of the potato-shaped moon’’ orbit, learning how it is changing. Eons from now, Phobos’ orbit is expected to eventually send the moon toward the Red Planet’s surface.

Arizona State University leads the operations of the Mastcam-Z instrument, working in collaboration with Malin Space Science Systems in San Diego, on the design, fabrication, testing, and operation of the cameras, and in collaboration with the Niels Bohr Institute of the University of Copenhagen on the design, fabrication, and testing of the calibration targets.

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which is managed for the agency by Caltech in Pasadena, California, built and manages operations of the Perseverance rover.

For more about Perseverance: science.nasa.gov/mission/mars-2020-perseverance

The post Perseverance Captures Another Phobos Transit appeared first on NASA Science.

Monday assorted links

1. There is now a formal 150 kph (93.2 mph) speed limit in one part of Czechia.

2. Why does the Japanese prime minister spend so much time in seclusion?

3. Decker defends academia (noting I do not think the “only the peaks” defense quite works.  I also worry about very high quality research that ends up being too context-specific to be very useful.  That is no fault of the researchers, but…the world is not wrong to be less than totally impressed in response.  Economists, when they discuss what they are up to, are far too taken in by “the quality of the work” as a relevant variable.  I think they can be fairly delusional as to how much progress they actually are making, even though along the “research quality” dimension the work is much better than what people were doing say thirty years ago.  In fact we train economists to make precisely this kind of mistake.)

4. Rhine Group.  More European optimism.

5. Entrepreneurs in state government improve state government.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

A non-interactive introduction to the spanning tree protocol

Imagine you rent office space for a three-day event. You quickly set up a few Ethernet switches and tape some cables on the floor to get everyone online. Unfortunately, Stan, your clumsiest coworker, kicks out a cable every time he gets up for coffee. Spare cables would fix that, but a loop turns into a broadcast storm: Ethernet packets multiply until nothing else gets through. That’s where the spanning tree protocol comes in: it blocks just enough of the spare cables to leave a loop-free tree, and rebuilds it in a second each time Stan strikes again.

This content is also available as a text version, with interactive demos that run a real implementation directly in your browser!


This video is an experiment.1 Honestly, except for Radia Perlman reading her poem,2 you should read the original article instead. It presents the same content, but you can play with the interactive examples, which are the main contribution. On the other hand, if you happen to like the video, be sure to tell me in the comments!


  1. I thought automated tools would produce this video in a couple of hours. In the end, it was another rabbit hole and it took me more than 12. 

  2. The audio was extracted from a Youtube video and cleaned up. 

An interactive introduction to the spanning tree protocol

Warning

This post contains interactive examples. To visualize and interact with them, you need to leave your RSS reader.

Imagine you rent office space for a three-day event. You quickly set up a few Ethernet switches and tape some cables on the floor to get everyone online. Unfortunately, Stan, your clumsiest coworker, kicks out a cable every time he gets up for coffee. You could add extra cables, but then you’d get a broadcast storm: Ethernet packets that loop and multiply until nothing else gets through.

That’s where the spanning tree protocol (STP) comes in. STP blocks just enough of your spare cables to leave a loop-free tree. When Stan strikes again, it rebuilds the tree in a second, leaving some time for Blobby, your one-person support crew, to reconnect the cable. See for yourself: the diagram below runs a real STP implementation in your browser!

:demo

A1 @0,0 prio=4096
A2 @0,1
A3 @0,2
A4 @0,3

B1 @1,0 prio=8192
B2 @1,1
B3 @1,2
B4 @1,3

C1 @2,0 prio=8192
C2 @2,1
C3 @2,2
C4 @2,3

A1 -- A2 hazard=0
A2 -- A3 hazard=0
A3 -- A4 hazard=0
B1 -- B2
B2 -- B3
B3 -- B4
C1 -- C2 hazard=0
C2 -- C3 hazard=0
C3 -- C4 hazard=0

A1 -- B1 cost=10
B1 -- C1 cost=10
A4 -- B4 cost=20
B4 -- C4 cost=20

Leo @-0.3,0.7 proto=none icon=👦🏻
Mia @-0.3,1.3 proto=none icon=👧🏽
Joy @0.3,0.7  proto=none icon=👱🏻‍♀️
Roy @0.3,1.3  proto=none icon=👨🏾
A2 -- Leo hazard=0 A2:edge
A2 -- Mia hazard=0 A2:edge
A2 -- Joy hazard=0 A2:edge
A2 -- Roy hazard=0 A2:edge

Max @-0.3,1.7 proto=none icon=👨🏽
Zoe @-0.3,2.3 proto=none icon=👩🏾
Ada @0.3,1.7  proto=none icon=👵🏾
Amy @0.3,2.3  proto=none icon=👩🏼
A3 -- Max hazard=0 A3:edge
A3 -- Zoe hazard=0 A3:edge
A3 -- Ada hazard=0 A3:edge
A3 -- Amy hazard=0 A3:edge

Eli @0.7,0.7 proto=none icon=👦🏼
Jay @0.7,1.3 proto=none icon=👨🏻
Kai @1.3,0.7  proto=none icon=🧑🏽
Ben @1.3,1.3  proto=none icon=👱🏼
B2 -- Eli hazard=0.2 B2:edge
B2 -- Jay hazard=0.2 B2:edge
B2 -- Kai hazard=0.2 B2:edge
B2 -- Ben hazard=0.2 B2:edge

Ava @0.7,1.7 proto=none icon=👩🏻
Lea @0.7,2.3 proto=none icon=🧑🏾‍🦱
Ivy @1.3,1.7  proto=none icon=🧕🏽
Rex @1.3,2.3  proto=none icon=👴🏿
B3 -- Ava hazard=0.2 B3:edge
B3 -- Lea hazard=0.2 B3:edge
B3 -- Ivy hazard=0.2 B3:edge
B3 -- Rex hazard=0.2 B3:edge

Ana @1.7,0.7 proto=none icon=👩🏿
Eve @1.7,1.3 proto=none icon=👧🏼
Abe @2.3,0.7  proto=none icon=🧓🏿
Ian @2.3,1.3  proto=none icon=🧔🏾
C2 -- Ana hazard=0 C2:edge
C2 -- Eve hazard=0 C2:edge
C2 -- Abe hazard=0 C2:edge
C2 -- Ian hazard=0 C2:edge

Ned @1.7,1.7 proto=none icon=👨🏼‍🦳
Lou @1.7,2.3 proto=none icon=🧑🏿
Fay @2.3,1.7  proto=none icon=👧🏻
Sue @2.3,2.3  proto=none icon=👩🏽‍🦰
C3 -- Ned hazard=0 C3:edge
C3 -- Lou hazard=0 C3:edge
C3 -- Fay hazard=0 C3:edge
C3 -- Sue hazard=0 C3:edge

Note

This article is also available as a video, but I advise you to keep reading here to try the interactive demonstrations.

The basics

Designed in the ’80s, the spanning tree protocol has evolved into a “rapid” flavor (RSTP) and a “VLAN-aware” variation (MSTP).1 Any sound-minded network engineer knows there are better alternatives, like BGP EVPN VXLAN. Yet, because any switch speaks it, the venerable spanning tree protocol still fills a niche.

We focus on RSTP: it replaced the original protocol in 2004. To eliminate network loops, RSTP implements a complex state machine. Timers, link state changes, and the link-local control frames a bridge receives from its neighbors drive its transitions. These Ethernet frames are the Bridge Protocol Data Units (BPDUs). You can watch them in action below: hit the “Start” button.

:protocol rstp
:tx-hold 10

A1 @0,1
C11 @1,0 prio=4096 icon=🌳
C12 @1,2 prio=4096 icon=🌳
C21 @2,0 prio=4096 icon=🌳
C22 @2,2 prio=4096 icon=🌳
A2 @3,1

H1 @0,0.2 proto=none icon=💻
H2 @0,1.8 proto=none icon=🖨️
H3 @3,0.2 proto=none icon=📠
H4 @3,1.8 proto=none icon=📺

A1 -- C11
A1 -- C12
A2 -- C21
A2 -- C22
C11 -- C12
C11 -- C21
C11 -- C21
C11 -- C22
C12 -- C21
C12 -- C22
C21 -- C22
A1 -- H1 A1:edge
A1 -- H2 A1:edge
A2 -- H3 A2:edge
A2 -- H4 A2:edge

After some time, the topology converges to a tree: from the root C11, there is a path to each bridge2 and no loop. In the upper right corner, the interface displays a tree icon 🌳 followed by the time it took to reach this state. Cut a link and see how the protocol finds an alternate path to reach C12 in less than a second. You can stop the simulation, move it forward step by step, reset it to its initial state, or slow it down with the “snail” mode 🐌. Don’t worry about all the displayed information: I explain it later.

All examples run in your browser, powered by MSTPD—an open-source user-space3 implementation of RSTP.4

Historical interlude

Radia Perlman, an inductee of the Internet Hall of Fame in 2014, summarized the ancestor of STP she invented at DEC with this poem, later included in a US patent:

I think that I shall never see

A graph more lovely than a tree.

A tree whose crucial property

Is loop-free connectivity.

A tree which must be sure to span

So packets can reach every LAN.

First, the root must be selected.

By ID, it is elected.

Least cost paths from root are traced.

In the tree, these paths are placed.

A mesh is made by folks like me,

Then bridges find a spanning tree.

Radia Perlman, Algorhyme.

Electing the root bridge

To build a tree, RSTP first elects the bridge with the lowest bridge identifier as the root bridge. The bridge identifier combines the priority and the MAC address: 8192.6e:2b:10:a0:5f:29.

In the example below, S1 and S2 have priorities of 4,096 and 8,192: S1 becomes root. S4 has a priority of 12,288, while S3 keeps the default priority of 32,768:5 S4 becomes root. S5 and S6 don’t have a specific priority, so the lowest MAC address wins and S5 becomes root.

:protocol rstp

S1 @0,0 prio=4096
S2 @0,1 prio=8192
S1 -- S2

S3 @1,0
S4 @1,1 prio=12288
S3 -- S4

S5 @2,0
S6 @2,1
S5 -- S6

Initially, each bridge advertises itself as root:6

Spanning Tree Protocol
    Protocol Identifier: Spanning Tree Protocol (0x0000)
    Protocol Version Identifier: Rapid Spanning Tree (2)
    BPDU Type: Rapid/Multiple Spanning Tree (0x02)
    Root Identifier: 8192.02:00:00:01:00:01
    Bridge Identifier: 8192.02:00:00:01:00:01

Once a bridge receives a BPDU advertising a better root bridge, it propagates this new information to its neighbors.

Spanning Tree Protocol
    Protocol Identifier: Spanning Tree Protocol (0x0000)
    Protocol Version Identifier: Rapid Spanning Tree (2)
    BPDU Type: Rapid/Multiple Spanning Tree (0x02)
    Root Identifier: 4096.02:00:00:00:00:00
    Bridge Identifier: 8192.02:00:00:00:00:01

Assigning roles to ports

The second step is to assign a role to each port. RSTP defines five roles, each denoted by a letter:

  • root (R),
  • designated (D),
  • alternate (A),
  • disabled (X), or
  • backup (B).7

Each non-root bridge chooses its root port, the one with the lowest-cost path to the root. Unless you override it, each bridge derives the link cost from the speed: 20,000 for 1 Gbps. In case of equality, the lowest port identifier wins.

Each remaining port becomes a designated port if the BPDU it sends is “better” than the BPDU it receives. Otherwise, it becomes an alternate port. Later, if the root port goes down, the “best” alternate port becomes the new root port. The tiebreakers for the best BPDU are:

  1. the lowest root bridge identifier,
  2. the lowest accumulated cost to the root,
  3. the lowest bridge identifier, and
  4. the lowest port identifier.
:protocol rstp

S1 @1,0  prio=4096 icon=🌳
S2 @0,1
S3 @2,1

S1 -- S2
S1 -- S3
S1 -- S3
S2 -- S3

In the example above, after convergence, S1 is the root bridge because it has a priority of 4,096, while the other bridges have a priority of 32,768. All its ports are designated ports because the accumulated cost to the root is 0.

S2’s port facing S1 becomes a root port because it has the lowest accumulated cost to the root—20,000 vs 40,000. S3 has two ports facing S1, and the one with the lowest port identifier becomes the root port—0x8000 vs 0x8001. The other candidate is an alternate port because the remote port on the link sends a better BPDU, with an accumulated cost of 0. On the segment between S2 and S3, S2’s port wins: while both bridges have the same accumulated cost to the root (20,000), S2’s bridge identifier is smaller—32768.02:00:00:00:00:01 vs 32768.02:00:00:00:00:02.

Spanning Tree Protocol
    Protocol Identifier: Spanning Tree Protocol (0x0000)
    Protocol Version Identifier: Rapid Spanning Tree (2)
    BPDU Type: Rapid/Multiple Spanning Tree (0x02)
    Root Identifier: 4096.02:00:00:00:00:00
    Root Path Cost: 20000
    Bridge Identifier: 32768.02:00:00:00:00:01
    Port identifier: 0x8002

If you cut the active link between S1 and S3, S3 promotes the “best” alternate port to root port. If you also disable the second link, S3 chooses the remaining alternate port as a root port. But if you disable the link between S1 and S2, S2 needs a bit more work to elect a new root port because it does not have an alternate port.

Unless a specific event happens, designated ports send BPDUs every 2 seconds.8 If a bridge does not receive BPDUs from its neighbor for 3 consecutive hello periods, it considers the neighbor dead and removes the port information.

Port state transition

Each port can have one of three states. The diagram displays a background color for each state:

  • discarding (red),
  • learning (yellow), or
  • forwarding (green).

A root port transitions automatically to the forwarding state. An alternate port stays in the discarding state. A designated port has two options to transition from the discarding state to the forwarding state:

  • If the port is an edge port, either through configuration or because the remote device does not speak any flavor of STP, the bridge assumes it won’t participate in the protocol and cannot create a loop. In this case, the designated port immediately transitions to the forwarding state.
  • Otherwise, it sends a proposal to its downstream neighbor. If the remote bridge agrees that the received BPDU is “better” than any other BPDU stored for other ports, it elects the receiving port as its root port and starts the synchronization process: it transitions all non-edge non-synced designated ports to the discarding state to avoid a loop. Then, it sends back an agreement. Upon receiving the agreement, the peer designated port transitions to the forwarding state.9
:protocol rstp

S1 @1,0 prio=4096 icon=🌳
S2 @1,1
S3 @0,2
S4 @2,2
S5 @0,3 prio=8192 icon=🪾
S6 @2,3
H1 @0,1.2   proto=none icon=🖨️
H2 @2,1.2   proto=none icon=📠
H3 @2.5,1.3 proto=none icon=📺
H4 @2.5,2.3 proto=none icon=💻

S1 -- S2
S2 -- S3
S2 -- S4
S3 -- S5
S4 -- S6
S4 -- S3
S5 -- S6

S3 -- H1 S3:edge
S4 -- H2 S4:edge
S4 -- H3 S4:edge
S6 -- H4 S6:edge

In the topology above, H1, H2, H3, and H4 are end devices not participating in the protocol. We configure the ports they connect to as edge ports, so these ports immediately move to the forwarding state.

Use the “step” button to move the simulation forward. The clock moves to 1 second. Step again and S1 and S2 send a proposal to each other. Here is the proposal from S2:

Spanning Tree Protocol
    Protocol Identifier: Spanning Tree Protocol (0x0000)
    Protocol Version Identifier: Rapid Spanning Tree (2)
    BPDU Type: Rapid/Multiple Spanning Tree (0x02)
    BPDU flags: 0x4e, Agreement, Port Role: Designated, Proposal
        0... .... = Topology Change Acknowledgment: No
        .1.. .... = Agreement: Yes
        ..0. .... = Forwarding: No
        ...0 .... = Learning: No
        .... 11.. = Port Role: Designated (3)
        .... ..1. = Proposal: Yes
        .... ...0 = Topology Change: No
    Root Identifier: 32768.02:00:00:00:00:01
    Root Path Cost: 0
    Bridge Identifier: 32768.02:00:00:00:00:01
    Port identifier: 0x8001

S1 ignores it: its own root identifier is lower. When S2 receives a similar proposal from S1, it accepts S1 as its root bridge. It also elects the port to S1 as the root port and starts the synchronization process. The two designated ports are already discarding, so no change here. Step again and S2 sends two BPDUs to S1. In one of them, the agreement bit is 1 and the proposal bit is 0. It also shows that S2 accepted S1 as the root bridge and its root port is now in the forwarding state. When receiving this BPDU, S1 transitions its own designated port to the forwarding state. From this point, the link between S1 and S2 forwards user traffic.

Spanning Tree Protocol
    Protocol Identifier: Spanning Tree Protocol (0x0000)
    Protocol Version Identifier: Rapid Spanning Tree (2)
    BPDU Type: Rapid/Multiple Spanning Tree (0x02)
    BPDU flags: 0x79, Agreement, Forwarding, Learning, Port Role: Root, Topology Change
        0... .... = Topology Change Acknowledgment: No
        .1.. .... = Agreement: Yes
        ..1. .... = Forwarding: Yes
        ...1 .... = Learning: Yes
        .... 10.. = Port Role: Root (2)
        .... ..0. = Proposal: No
        .... ...1 = Topology Change: Yes
    Root Identifier: 4096.02:00:00:00:00:00
    Root Path Cost: 20000
    Bridge Identifier: 32768.02:00:00:00:00:01
    Port identifier: 0x8001

Let’s look at what happened to S5. Reset the simulation and step twice. S5 exchanges BPDUs with both S3 and S6. Since S5 has a lower root identifier than S3 and S6, it stays the root bridge, while S3 and S6 accept the proposal and elect their root ports. S3 and S6 start the synchronization process. S6’s port to H4 stays up because this is an edge port. Move one step. Both S3 and S6 send an agreement back to S5, which transitions both designated ports to the forwarding state. Yet, the link between S5 and S3 keeps discarding user traffic! If you look carefully, S3’s port toward S5 is now a designated port, not a root port. During the same step, S3 also receives a better BPDU from S2 with S1 as the root bridge. It elects its port to S2 as the root port and downgrades the port to S5 to a designated port, which stays in the discarding state.

On the next step, things get a bit tricky. S3 sends a proposal to S5:10

Spanning Tree Protocol
    Protocol Identifier: Spanning Tree Protocol (0x0000)
    Protocol Version Identifier: Rapid Spanning Tree (2)
    BPDU Type: Rapid/Multiple Spanning Tree (0x02)
    BPDU flags: 0x4f, Agreement, Port Role: Designated, Proposal, Topology Change
        0... .... = Topology Change Acknowledgment: No
        .1.. .... = Agreement: Yes
        ..0. .... = Forwarding: No
        ...0 .... = Learning: No
        .... 11.. = Port Role: Designated (3)
        .... ..1. = Proposal: Yes
        .... ...1 = Topology Change: Yes
    Root Identifier: 4096.02:00:00:00:00:00
    Root Path Cost: 40000
    Bridge Identifier: 32768.02:00:00:00:00:02
    Port identifier: 0x8002

S5 elects S1 as its root bridge and the port toward S3 as its root port. It starts its synchronization process, but the designated port to S6 does not move into the discarding state. Why? That port stays a designated port and its neighbor S6 had already sent an agreement on the link, so the port keeps its synced status.

Now, let’s step back to look at what happens to S6. At this point, S6 believes S5 is the root bridge. Step once and S4 sends a new proposal to S6. S6 accepts the proposal, elects S1 as the root bridge and the port to S4 as its root port. The role of the port facing S5 changes: from a root port, it becomes a designated port. Because its peer keeps advertising an inferior BPDU on the link, this port becomes disputed and moves to the discarding state. The root port transitions to the forwarding state and the link starts forwarding immediately because S4’s designated port is already in the forwarding state. If we step one more time, S5 and S6 exchange two BPDUs. The one from S5 is better because of its lower bridge identifier. S5’s port stays a designated port, while S6 downgrades its own port to an alternate port.

Let’s rewind one last time from the start: cut the link between S1 and S2, run the simulation until the topology is stable, stop the simulation, and restore the link between S1 and S2. During the first step, S1 and S2 exchange proposals. S2 elects S1 as the root bridge instead of S5 and the port to S1 as the root port. It downgrades the previous root port to a designated port and moves it into the discarding state. The other designated port stays synced and keeps its forwarding state. At the next step, S2 sends an agreement to S1 and the link between them starts forwarding user traffic. It also sends a proposal to S3, but not to S4. Instead, it sends a regular BPDU to S4. S4 still elects S1 as its root bridge and the port to S2 as its root port. It demotes its previous root port, the one to S3, to a designated port, which transitions to the discarding state because of the root port change. The other alternate port, to S6, also becomes a designated port and stays in the discarding state. The new root port moves to the forwarding state. On the next step, S4’s port to S3 settles as an alternate port after receiving a “better” BPDU from S3.

RSTP is a giant state machine split into smaller ones: bridge detection, port information, port protocol migration, port role selection, port role transitions, port receive, port state transitions, port timers, port transmit, and topology change. Some of them are per bridge, some per port. Each bridge runs an instance. Time, operational port state changes, and the BPDUs it receives from other instances drive the transitions. Being event-driven makes RSTP more efficient but also more difficult to understand.

Western Australian Government Railways class Msa Garratt articulated steam
locomotive: elevation and plan drawing
Placeholder for the Port Information state machine extracted from IEEE 802.1Q-2005, page 182. Pending IEEE authorization for reproduction, this is the blueprint for the Western Australian Government Railways class Msa Garratt articulated steam locomotive.

Topology change notification

A bridge populates a MAC address table: it associates each source MAC address with the port that last received it. When forwarding an Ethernet frame, it looks up this table to choose the right port.11 When a link fails, a connected fridge reachable through one port may become reachable through another one. The affected bridges should flush the MAC addresses they learned, because these entries may now be wrong.

For this purpose, RSTP implements topology change notifications using a flooding mechanism. When a non-edge port transitions to the forwarding state, a bridge generates BPDUs with the topology change (TC) bit set. It sends them to all the non-edge designated ports and to the root port. It also flushes the MAC address table on these ports. When a bridge receives such a BPDU, it propagates the notification to all non-edge designated ports and the root port, except the one the notification came from. It also flushes the MAC address table on these ports. In the examples, the BPDUs with the TC bit set to 1 have a red circle.

:protocol rstp

S1 @1,0 prio=4096 icon=🌳
S2 @0,1
S3 @1,1
S4 @2,1
S5 @1,2
LPT @0.1,2 proto=none icon=🖨️

S1 -- S2
S1 -- S3
S1 -- S4
S2 -- S3
S2 -- S5
S4 -- S5
S5 -- LPT S5:edge

Start the simulation and wait a few seconds for the topology to settle. Stop the simulation and disable the link between S2 and S5. S5 elects the port facing S4 as the root port, which transitions immediately to the forwarding state. Step once and S5 emits a BPDU with the TC bit set to 1:

Spanning Tree Protocol
    Protocol Identifier: Spanning Tree Protocol (0x0000)
    Protocol Version Identifier: Rapid Spanning Tree (2)
    BPDU Type: Rapid/Multiple Spanning Tree (0x02)
    BPDU flags: 0x79, Agreement, Forwarding, Learning, Port Role: Root, Topology Change
        0... .... = Topology Change Acknowledgment: No
        .1.. .... = Agreement: Yes
        ..1. .... = Forwarding: Yes
        ...1 .... = Learning: Yes
        .... 10.. = Port Role: Root (2)
        .... ..0. = Proposal: No
        .... ...1 = Topology Change: Yes
    Root Identifier: 4096.02:00:00:00:00:00
    Root Path Cost: 40000
    Bridge Identifier: 32768.02:00:00:00:00:04
    Port identifier: 0x8002

S4 receives this BPDU. It flushes the MAC address table on the port facing S1: while LPT was previously reachable through this port, it is now reachable through S5 instead. Step once. S4 sends S1 a BPDU with the TC bit set to 1. When S1 receives this BPDU, it flushes the MAC address table on the ports facing S2 and S3. Step once and S1 sends a notification to S2 and S3. Step once again and S2 sends a notification to S3, while S3 does nothing because the port toward S2 is an alternate port. S3 does not flush any MAC address table: LPT is still reachable through its port to S1.

If you step a bit more, you will see that some of the periodic BPDUs keep the TC bit set to 1. Each port runs a timer equal to the hello timer plus one second.12 The timer starts when the port emits a notification. Until it expires, the port sets the TC bit to 1 in every BPDU it sends. You can also see some periodic BPDUs without the TC bit: they originate from a port that only received a notification and therefore did not arm its timer.

Security

RSTP is weak against configuration errors and malicious actors. A bridge not talking RSTP can create a loop. An attacker can insert themselves into the topology to disrupt the service, spy on the traffic, or alter it.

To mitigate such problems, you need to identify the edge ports. An edge port connects to an end device, like a PC or a printer. Such devices do not generate BPDUs and cannot create a loop. RSTP defines two related flags:

  • When true, AdminEdge initializes a port as an edge port. It defaults to false.
  • When true, AutoEdge lets a port become an edge port when it does not receive BPDUs for 3 seconds. It defaults to true.

If an edge port receives a BPDU, regardless of the values of these two flags, it reverts to a non-edge port.

R0 @1.5,1.5 prio=8192

# AutoEdge=true, AdminEdge=false, bridge
S1 @3,1.58
R0 -- S1

# AutoEdge=true, AdminEdge=false, end device
H1 @2.84,2.18 icon=🖨️ proto=none
R0 -- H1

# AutoEdge=true, AdminEdge=true, bridge
S2 @2.18,2.84
R0 -- S2 R0:edge

# AutoEdge=true, AdminEdge=true, end device
H2 @1.58,3 icon=💻 proto=none
R0 -- H2 R0:edge

# AutoEdge=false, AdminEdge=true, bridge
S3 @0.68,2.76
R0 -- S3 R0:edge R0:no-auto-edge

# AutoEdge=false, AdminEdge=true, end device
H3 @0.24,2.32 icon=📠 proto=none
R0 -- H3 R0:edge R0:no-auto-edge

# AutoEdge=false, AdminEdge=false, bridge
S4 @0,1.42
R0 -- S4 R0:no-auto-edge

# AutoEdge=false, AdminEdge=false, end device
H4 @0.16,0.82 icon=📺 proto=none
R0 -- H4 R0:no-auto-edge

# Network port, bridge
S5 @0.82,0.16
R0 -- S5 R0:network S5:network

# Network port, end device
H5 @1.42,0 icon=☕ proto=none
R0 -- H5 R0:network

# AdminEdge=true, bpdu-guard=true, bridge
S6 @2.32,0.24
R0 -- S6 R0:bpdu-guard R0:edge

# AdminEdge=true, bpdu-guard=true, end device
H6 @2.76,0.68 icon=💡 proto=none
R0 -- H6 R0:bpdu-guard R0:edge

In the topology above, S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, and S6 act as bridges, while H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, and H6 act as end devices:

  • S1 and H1 are on a port without a specific configuration: AutoEdge is true, AdminEdge is false,
  • S2 and H2 are on a port where AdminEdge is true,
  • S3 and H3 are on a port where AutoEdge is false and AdminEdge is true,
  • S4 and H4 are on a port where AutoEdge is false.

If you start the topology and wait about 20 seconds, links to S1, S2, S3, S4, H1, H2, H3, and H4 eventually forward user traffic: none of the flags matter.

But what about the two remaining pairs? S5 and H5 connect to a network port. Such a port enables a non-standard feature: bridge assurance. The port transmits BPDUs regardless of its role. If it does not receive BPDUs for 3 consecutive hello periods, it transitions to the discarding state. On the link between R0 and S5, you can see BPDUs traveling in both directions, unlike the other links, where only designated ports send BPDUs.

S6 and H6 connect to a port where AdminEdge is true and BPDU guard is enabled. This is another non-standard feature that shuts down a port if it receives a BPDU.

In summary, if you expect a port to be an edge port, you should set AdminEdge to true and enable BPDU guard. Otherwise, declare it as a network port.

Why RSTP today?

A compelling use case for RSTP today is an out-of-band network for a datacenter, since you can tolerate an outage of a few seconds. The configuration is minimal and you can use cheap switches, like a Cisco 2960X.13 You need two switches acting as root bridges, and you build several loops to connect OOB switches in each cabinet. This simple design survives one failure on each loop.14

:protocol rstp
:tx-hold 10

# Root bridges
R1 @0,1 prio=0
R2 @0,2 prio=4096
R1 -- R2 cost=200 R1:network R2:network
R1 -- R2 cost=200 R1:network R2:network

# First loop
C1  @1,0 icon=🗄️
C4  @2,0 icon=🗄️
C7  @3,0 icon=🗄️
C10 @4,0 icon=🗄️
C12 @5,0 icon=🗄️
C13 @5,3 icon=🗄️
C15 @4,3 icon=🗄️
C18 @3,3 icon=🗄️
C21 @2,3 icon=🗄️
C24 @1,3 icon=🗄️
R1  -- C1  R1:network C1:network
C1  -- C4  C1:network C4:network
C4  -- C7  C4:network C7:network
C7  -- C10 C7:network C10:network
C10 -- C12 C10:network C12:network
C12 -- C13 C12:network C13:network
C13 -- C15 C13:network C15:network
C15 -- C18 C15:network C18:network
C18 -- C21 C18:network C21:network
C21 -- C24 C21:network C24:network
C24 -- R2  C24:network R2:network

# Second loop
C2  @1,0.5 icon=🗄️
C5  @2,0.5 icon=🗄️
C8  @3,0.5 icon=🗄️
C11 @4,0.5 icon=🗄️
C14 @4,2.5 icon=🗄️
C17 @3,2.5 icon=🗄️
C20 @2,2.5 icon=🗄️
C23 @1,2.5 icon=🗄️
R1  -- C2  R1:network C2:network
C2  -- C5  C2:network C5:network
C5  -- C8  C5:network C8:network
C8  -- C11 C8:network C11:network
C11 -- C14 C11:network C14:network
C14 -- C17 C14:network C17:network
C17 -- C20 C17:network C20:network
C20 -- C23 C20:network C23:network
C23 -- R2  C23:network R2:network

# Third loop
C3  @1,1 icon=🗄️
C6  @2,1 icon=🗄️
C9  @3,1 icon=🗄️
C16 @3,2 icon=🗄️
C19 @2,2 icon=🗄️
C22 @1,2 icon=🗄️
R1  -- C3  R1:network C3:network
C3  -- C6  C3:network C6:network
C6  -- C9  C6:network C9:network
C9  -- C16 C9:network C16:network
C16 -- C19 C16:network C19:network
C19 -- C22 C19:network C22:network
C22 -- R2  C22:network R2:network

This topology converges in about 6 seconds. Each loop should stay small (around 16 bridges) to reduce the probability of a double failure and to avoid sharing too much bandwidth. The design can evolve a bit without adding too much complexity: one VLAN per loop or one bridge domain per loop.

How large can a network be?

The maximum age, whose default value is 20, governs the maximum distance of a node from the root. The topology below is too big for BPDUs from R1 to reach beyond S20.15

:protocol rstp
:tx-hold 10
:max-age 20

R1 @0,0 prio=4096 icon=🌳
R2 @0,5 prio=4096 icon=🪾

S1  @1,0
S2  @2,0
S3  @3,0
S4  @4,0
S5  @5,0
S6  @6,0

S7  @6,1
S8  @5,1
S9  @4,1
S10 @3,1
S11 @2,1
S12 @1,1

S13 @1,2
S14 @2,2
S15 @3,2
S16 @4,2
S17 @5,2
S18 @6,2

S19 @6,3
S20 @5,3
S21 @4,3
S22 @3,3
S23 @2,3
S24 @1,3

S25 @1,4
S26 @2,4
S27 @3,4
S28 @4,4
S29 @5,4
S30 @6,4

S31 @6,5
S32 @5,5
S33 @4,5
S34 @3,5
S35 @2,5
S36 @1,5

R1  -- S1
S1  -- S2
S2  -- S3
S3  -- S4
S4  -- S5
S5  -- S6
S6  -- S7
S7  -- S8
S8  -- S9
S9  -- S10
S10 -- S11
S11 -- S12
S12 -- S13
S13 -- S14
S14 -- S15
S15 -- S16
S16 -- S17
S17 -- S18
S18 -- S19
S19 -- S20
S20 -- S21
S21 -- S22
S22 -- S23
S23 -- S24
S24 -- S25
S25 -- S26
S26 -- S27
S27 -- S28
S28 -- S29
S29 -- S30
S30 -- S31
S31 -- S32
S32 -- S33
S33 -- S34
S34 -- S35
S35 -- S36
S36 -- R2
R1  -- R2 cost=200 down

Once the topology settles, part of the network considers R1 the root, while the other votes for R2. At the boundary, S20 tries to start a synchronization with S21 to move its designated port to the forwarding state. The BPDU looks like this:

Spanning Tree Protocol
    Protocol Identifier: Spanning Tree Protocol (0x0000)
    Protocol Version Identifier: Rapid Spanning Tree (2)
    BPDU Type: Rapid/Multiple Spanning Tree (0x02)
    BPDU flags: 0x4e, Agreement, Port Role: Designated, Proposal
    Root Identifier: 4096.02:00:00:00:00:00
    Root Path Cost: 400000
    Bridge Identifier: 32768.02:00:00:00:00:15
    Port identifier: 0x8002
    Message Age: 20
    Max Age: 20

S21 rejects it because the message age equals the maximum age. On the other hand, the BPDU S21 sends to S20 looks like this:

Spanning Tree Protocol
    Protocol Identifier: Spanning Tree Protocol (0x0000)
    Protocol Version Identifier: Rapid Spanning Tree (2)
    BPDU Type: Rapid/Multiple Spanning Tree (0x02)
    BPDU flags: 0x7c, Agreement, Forwarding, Learning, Port Role: Designated
    Root Identifier: 4096.02:00:00:00:00:01
    Root Path Cost: 320000
    Bridge Identifier: 32768.02:00:00:00:00:16
    Port identifier: 0x8001
    Message Age: 16
    Max Age: 20

This is not enough to change S20’s root port because S20 has a lower root identifier4096.02:00:00:00:00:00 vs 4096.02:00:00:00:00:01.

Fixing the link between R1 and R2 resolves the issue. The maximum message age any packet carries is now 18, below the configured maximum age. But it only works until another link breaks. A plausible fix is to increase the maximum age to 40.16

How fast is RSTP?

RSTP usually converges in a couple of seconds at startup. It often repairs a tree in less than a second. Even the 38-bridge topology takes less than 10 seconds to converge.17 Some topologies can take a bit more time to recover when the root bridge becomes unavailable.18

:protocol rstp

R0 @1,0 prio=0
S1 @1,1 prio=4096
S2 @0,2 prio=8192
S3 @2,2

R0 -- S1
S1 -- S2
S2 -- S3
S3 -- S1

In the topology above, start the simulation, wait for convergence, hit stop, and cut the link between R0 and S1. The topology is already optimal, but RSTP has a hard time converging again.

First, S1 loses its root port. It has no more information about R0 and elects itself as the root bridge. It keeps its ports to S2 and S3 as designated ports in the forwarding state. Step once and it sends a BPDU to both S2 and S3 to let them know about the root change. When receiving it, S2 accepts S1 as its root because it does not have a better root on another port. It elects the port to S1 as its root port. The other port stays a designated port. Both ports keep forwarding.

When receiving the BPDU from S1, S3 behaves differently: it knows R0 as a better root than S1 through its alternate port to S2. It promotes this port to a root port and demotes the port facing S1 to a designated port, which requires a new agreement. Step once and S3 sends a proposal to S1 with R0 as the root bridge. S1 elects R0 as the root bridge and promotes its port to S3 as a root port.

During the same step, S3 also receives a BPDU from S2 stating that S1 is the root bridge. Therefore, S3 has no port left with R0 as the root bridge: it elects S1 as the root bridge and its port to S2 as the root port. Step once and its next BPDU to S1 includes this information: S1 elects itself again as the root bridge. But during the same wave, S1 sends a proposal to S2 with R0 as the root bridge. While S1 and S3 agree that S1 is the root bridge, S2 now believes this is R0! In turn, S2 again convinces S3 that R0 is the root bridge, S3 convinces S1, S1 convinces S2, and S2 convinces S3.

This could go on forever, but it does not. The BPDUs saying “R0 is root” eventually age out when the message age goes past the maximum age. In the example above, at the eleventh second, S2 sends a BPDU to S3 with R0 as root, but S3 drops it because its message age reached the maximum. With some luck, the topology can also converge faster if a port stops transmitting new BPDUs after tripping the transmit hold count, whose default value is 6 per second.

About MSTP

MSTP is the “VLAN-aware” version of RSTP: it runs several instances of RSTP and lets the administrator map each VLAN to a specific instance. For example, you can map VLANs 100 to 200 to a first instance, and 300 to 400 to a second instance. The remaining VLANs map to a special instance named the Internal Spanning Tree (IST). MSTP adds its own complexity, but the gist is that you have several logical topologies acting independently. If you want to dig deeper, have a look at “MSTP Tutorial Part I: Inside a Region.”

About the interactive examples

The interactive examples run MSTPD directly in your browser, compiled to WebAssembly with emscripten. A C API replaces the code talking to the Linux kernel: it manages bridges and ports, exports state as JSON, and drives time deterministically. A JavaScript wrapper makes it more user-friendly:

import { loadMSTPD } from "./dist/mstpd.mjs";
const mstp = await loadMSTPD();

// Create 3 bridges
const a = mstp.createBridge("A", { priority: 4096 });
const b = mstp.createBridge("B", { priority: 8192 });
const c = mstp.createBridge("C");

// Each bridge has two ports
const a1 = a.addPort("a-b", { portno: 1 });
const a2 = a.addPort("a-c", { portno: 2 });
const b1 = b.addPort("b-a", { portno: 1 });
const b2 = b.addPort("b-c", { portno: 2 });
const c1 = c.addPort("c-a", { portno: 1 });
const c2 = c.addPort("c-b", { portno: 2 });

// Build a triangle topology
mstp.link(a1, b1);
mstp.link(a2, c1);
mstp.link(b2, c2);

// Enable all bridges and ports
for (const br of [a, b, c]) br.enable();
for (const p of [a1, a2, b1, b2, c1, c2]) p.enable();

// Execute 40 seconds' worth of wall clock and display the topology
mstp.step(40);
console.log("Topology:", mstp.topology());

Several dozen unit tests explore the features of MSTPD and check that they work correctly in this environment:

$ node --test *.test.mjs
✔ two bridges: lower priority becomes root (41.657342ms)
✔ triangle loop: exactly one port blocks and all agree on the root (5.832ms)
✔ breaking the active link reconverges and restoring recovers (18.730753ms)
[…]
ℹ tests 40
ℹ pass 40
ℹ fail 0
[…]
ℹ duration_ms 396.190897

Additional JavaScript code looks for specific <pre> blocks containing a topology definition and turns them into the interactive widget. You can inspect and modify the definition by hitting the “edit” button.

There is also a cool trick to tell whether the topology has converged. After each step, we save a snapshot of the simulation memory, play 50 seconds’ worth of simulation to check if the topology is stable, and travel back in time by restoring that snapshot. 🕰️

The complete code lives on GitHub. I am happy with the result. It can be difficult to follow everything happening during a single step, but stepping forward and backward helps. I plan to use the same approach in future blog posts about networking features.

Note

Michael Lynch reviewed a first draft of this article. He authored “Refactoring English,” a book to sharpen your writing for blog posts, documentation, commit messages, and tutorials. Any errors are still mine!


  1. STP was introduced in IEEE 802.1D-1990. It is still present in IEEE 802.1D-1998 but was withdrawn in IEEE 802.1D-2004 in favor of RSTP, introduced in IEEE 802.1w-2001. MSTP was introduced in IEEE 802.1s-2002 and merged into IEEE 802.1Q-2003. Both of them are part of IEEE 802.1Q-2022 along with SPB—a protocol I had never heard of until writing this article. 

  2. From here, I use “bridge” instead of the more common word “switch.” 

  3. The Linux kernel only runs STP. It delegates the other protocols to user space. 

  4. MSTPD implements the state machine from IEEE 802.1Q-2005, but on Linux it runs RSTP only. Linux 5.18 added support for forwarding multiple spanning tree, but MSTPD does not use it yet. See PR #150 for progress on this front. 

  5. The priority is a multiple of 4,096: with MSTP, the lower 12 bits of the bridge priority encode the MST instance identifier, leaving only the upper 4 bits for the configured priority. 

  6. To inspect the BPDUs crossing a link, select it, click the “Download packets” button, and open the file with Wireshark

  7. A backup port only exists if the bridge has several ports on the same collision domain. This should not happen in a switched network. 

  8. This is the value of the “hello” timer. It used to be configurable, but IEEE 802.1Q-2005 pins it to 2. MSTPD does not allow another value. 

  9. If the peer port does not receive an agreement after the hello timer elapses—or the maximum age if the port has just come up—it falls back to the timer-based method for compatibility with STP: it transitions to the learning state, waits again for the hello timer to expire, and transitions to the forwarding state. 

  10. As in many proposals, S3 also sets the agreement bit to 1. The proposal bit says “I am the designated port on this link and I want to transition to the forwarding state.” The agreement bit says “I am already in sync with the rest of my bridge on this root information.” Both can be true. 

  11. If it finds no entry, the bridge duplicates the Ethernet frame on all ports, except the incoming one. The same happens if the destination MAC address is the broadcast one (ff:ff:ff:ff:ff:ff). This behavior bootstraps the learning process. 

  12. This timer makes RSTP resistant to packet loss. 

  13. You can get them for less than US$100 through a broker. All the ports run PVST+ by default and automatically fall back to plain RSTP

  14. An alternative would be Ethernet Ring Protection Switching (ERPS)—another protocol I had never heard of until researching this article. 

  15. If you look closely at what happens at t=2s, you can see that R2 is gaining popularity as root: S17 to S36 believe R2 is the root bridge. S16 does not follow because we hit the maximum age. Later, S17 to S20 reverse their position. I’ll let you explore the state of the various bridges to understand the root cause. 

  16. When increasing the maximum age to 40, you also need to increase the forward delay to 21 (:forward-delay 21), as the standard enforces this condition: 2 × (Forward Delay − 1) ≥ Max Age. For this specific topology, you could also increase the maximum age to 37 and forward-delay to 20. 

  17. The simulation may seem slow, but it does not run in real time. Look at the current timestamp in the upper right corner to know the wall clock, e.g. “t=8s.” Once the topology stabilizes, the same corner shows the convergence time, e.g. “🌳 2s.” 

  18. Khaled Elmeleegy, Alan Cox, and Eugene Ng formalized this phenomenon in “On Count-to-Infinity Induced Forwarding Loops in Ethernet Networks” and later in “Understanding and Mitigating the Effects of Count to Infinity in Ethernet Networks.” They propose a fix that did not find its way into a standard. 

Is Scott Bessent the Fed chair Donald Trump always wanted?

Perhaps. But his effort to talk bond yields lower is likely to fail

August 23, 2026

I’ve heard rumors that we all need a break.

So here, from a recent kayak trip, is a photo of a world that is not dominated by the news.

And now, let’s all get a good night’s sleep.

I’ll be back at it tomorrow.

Share

Week Thirteen in 250 to 250

Last week was the thirteenth week of videos from the 250 to 250 Project that we’re producing to honor the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

Our hope was for the videos to emphasize the agency of Americans—mostly everyday Americans—to change the country. Each falls into a category that defines what it means to be an American, including community, democracy, innovation, mobility, civil rights, education, conservation, and creativity. Once again this week, some of our narrators chose their own topics adding wonderful new stories.

This was yet another week of spectacular narrators who themselves represent the innovation, talent, and civic-mindedness we were hoping to celebrate.

You can follow the project at the sites listed below, or under “videos” at my own YouTube page: Heather Cox Richardson. Or just wait until I send out the week’s roundup.

Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads


Treaty of Portsmouth, Narrated by John Palfrey

John Palfrey, recognized as one of the best leaders in America by U.S. News & World Report, is an American educator, legal scholar, and author who serves as the president of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. He is the great-grandson of President Theodore Roosevelt, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering the Treaty of Portsmouth.

Robert “Fighting Bob” La Follette, Narrated by Ben Wikler

is an American political organizer and New York Times best-selling author who served as the chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin from July 2019 to July 2025. Wikler’s latest book This Is The Plan: How to End America’s Meltdown and Save Democracy is now available. Wikler profiles Robert “Fighting Bob” La Follette, the Wisconsin reformer who battled corporate power and drove some of the Progressive Movement’s greatest victories.

I.M. Pei, Narrated by Billie Tsien

Billie Tsien is a renowned Chinese-American architect, co-founder of Tod Williams Billie Tsien Architects, National Medal of Arts recipient, and lead designer behind the Obama Presidential Center. Tsien profiles architect I.M. Pei, whose bold geometric designs—from the National Gallery’s East Wing to the Louvre pyramid—helped define American modernism.

Edward R. Murrow, Narrated by Scott MacFarlane

is anchor of “Scott MacFarlane Reports” and Chief Washington Correspondent for MeidasTouch Network. MacFarlane has earned 20 Emmy and Edward R. Murrow awards and the Anna Quindlen Award for excellence in journalism from the Child Welfare League of America. Edward R. Murrow was a radio and television newscaster whose unflinching reports set the standard for American broadcast journalism.

Norman Rockwell, Narrated by Kahlil Greene

, the “Gen-Z Historian,” is a well-known digital educator, Peabody Award winner, and two-time Emmy nominee with an audience of over 50 million views across TikTok, Instagram, and author of History Can’t Hide on Substack. Greene profiles illustrator Norman Rockwell, whose beloved images of everyday American life evolved to confront war, civil rights, and the nation’s conscience.

Tlingits, Narrated by Rosita Worl

Dr. Rosita Worl is a Tlingit American anthropologist, educator, and president of the Sealaska Heritage Institute recognized as an expert in Southeast Alaska Native culture and history. Worl introduces the Tlingit people, “People of the Tides,” who have stewarded Southeast Alaska’s coasts since time immemorial and fought to defend Indigenous rights.

Wright Brothers Narrated by Governor Josh Stein

of North Carolina is lifelong public servant who previously served in the state Senate, as Senior Deputy Attorney General for consumer protection, and as North Carolina Attorney General. Governor Stein celebrates the Wright brothers, whose 12-second flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903 launched the age of aviation.

Head Start, Narrated by Jill Biden

Dr. Jill Biden is a highly regarded educator and former First Lady and Second Lady of the United States of America. Dr. Biden is a strong advocate for education, early learning initiatives, military families, and women’s health. Here, her history of Head Start reminds us that participation improves children’s language, literacy, and social skills.

Lemon Grove, Narrated by Marianna Vinson

Marianna Vinson is a first-generation Mexican-American educator. The Superintendent of the Lemon Grove School District, Vinson formerly served as the Deputy Director for the Office of English Language Acquisition at the U.S. Department of Education. In 1931, the San Diego County Superior Court ruled that the segregation at Lemon Grove violated California law.

Battle of Fallen Timbers, Narrated by Wes Siler

is an independent journalist who has spent the last 24 years writing about the intersection of public lands, conservation, and politics. He’s currently building a new Substack newsletter about those topics. He tells the story of the brief battle that forced Native American displacement from most of modern-day Ohio, opening it to white American settlement.

Mount St. Helens Eruption, Narrated by John Ebel

Dr. John Ebel is a highly regarded senior scientist at the Weston Observatory at Boston College whose expertise has made him the go-to source for media reporting on earthquakes in New England and around the world. He explains what happened in 1980, when Mount St. Helens erupted in the most destructive volcanic event in American history.

Woodlot Revolt, Narrated by Paula Peters

Paula Peters is a journalist, educator and activist. A citizen of the Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe, she travels internationally to speak and educate on the true Wampanoag story. Here she tells the story of the 1833 Woodlot Revolt, in which Wampanoag activists were arrested but the Wampanoag achieved a period of self-rule until 1870.

Mayo Clinic, Narrated by Dr. Stephen Ray Mitchell

Dr. Stephen Ray Mitchell is an award-winning medical expert who currently serves as the Joseph Butenas Professor of Medicine and Pediatrics and Dean Emeritus for Medical Education at Georgetown University School of Medicine. Dr. Mitchell has chaired the North American Liaison Committee for Medical Education (LCME) and has led accreditation visits to over 20 other Medical Schools. He tells the story of the founding of the Mayo Clinic, which pioneered many hallmarks of modern health care.

Wilma Mankiller, Narrated by Julie Reed

Julie Reed is a citizen of the Cherokee nation, Native American historian, author, and professor whose reflective essays include a widely syndicated piece about Wilma Mankiller, the first female principal chief of Cherokee Nation.


Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads

Share

You Are Not Alone

Abortion opponents seeking to ban surrogacy in Texas (and supporters are thinking about more regulation)

 Human reproduction gives rise to lots of different controversies, with the partisans not always aligned across issues the ways you might suppose. Here are two articles responding to a recent controversy in the news, one about a proposed ban on surrogacy in Texas, and one proposing more comprehensive regulation as a way of supporting access to surrogacy in the face of opposition.

Here's an article from the 19th News (named after the 19th Amendment to the US constitution, which gave women the right to vote), about how abortion opponents in Texas are hoping to also outlaw surrogacy there. 

Why abortion opponents are turning their attention to banning surrogacy 

 "Anti-abortion activists and lawmakers in Texas are pressing to limit or even outlaw surrogacy, a new step toward restricting major forms of infertility treatment.

"Surrogacy, though far from common, has entered the national spotlight this summer, the result of an explosive case in which an Alaska woman named McKenna West — who had been hired to carry a pregnancy for a California-based couple — traveled to Texas to seek medical care after refusing to have an abortion. She gave birth in Dallas last week.

...

"the case has become a lightning rod for national anti-abortion activists, including Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who intervened in the case on behalf of West to argue that the child must receive life-sustaining treatment in Texas, even though court records indicate his parents sought for him to receive care in California. (Paxton, who has frequently allied himself with social conservatives, is in a competitive race to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate.) West has secured representation from the Alliance Defending Freedom, a prominent anti-abortion legal group. 

Abortion opponents have argued that the case underscores a need to outlaw surrogacy entirely.  

...

"Kristan Hawkins, the president of the national anti-abortion group Students for Life of America, argued on the social media platform X that surrogacy “is human trafficking with better marketing.”

...

“It’s reasonable to expect some legislation will move at least out of the Senate on this topic,” John Seago, the head of Texas Right to Life, an anti-abortion organization that opposes surrogacy in all forms, told The 19th. Seago’s organization also opposes the freezing of and destruction of embryos that are not used for pregnancy, a standard component of IVF. 

...

"The Texas Public Policy Foundation, an influential right-wing think tank in the state, has also argued in favor of banning surrogacy. And the state Republican Party adopted a platform this summer saying it would support outlawing any “commercialization of human reproduction in Texas.”  

######

 And here's a call for more (and more national) regulation of surrogacy, in the WSJ:

Surrogacy Is Getting Weird
Dozens of American babies commissioned by Chinese billionaires, felony charges, embryo mix-ups and more.  By  Emma Camp 

w/e 2026-08-23

I’m tapping this out on the phone on the train back home at Monday lunchtime, after a weekend in Essex with my sister doing more sorting out of the old family home.

We had three four-drawer filing cabinets remaining before we’d complete the big initial phase of “look at every single thing and work out roughly what to do with it, discarding, saving, and finding new homes for some of it along the way.”

We got through one cabinet on Saturday afternoon and on Sunday started on the big one: four drawers crammed with a hanging file for nearly every year of Dad’s life, containing letters, leaflets, tickets, receipts, posters, essays, cuttings, photos, articles, mementoes, booklets, membership cards, journals, greetings cards, reports, postcards, payslips, forms, and on and on and on. I think it took us all day to get through one drawer, to the mid-1970s.

In a way this is lovely. We’re able to slowly follow Dad’s life through all this saved ephemera, all the things that meant something to him. We’ve kept some things, of course, and sorted others into themed piles in the hope we can find new homes for some of it. We often thought, “If there is someone doing a PhD about [very specific event in the history of the Labour Party] they’d love this.”


§ On Friday the home battery installers returned, having only supplied us with one of the two 5kWh batteries we’d been promised. We didn’t realise at first, and I’d been concerned the battery power wasn’t lasting throughout the night (especially before working out how to reduce the amount of power reserved in case of power cut). So, now we have our full 10.2kWh.

I spent two or three afternoons during the week setting up Home Assistant (HA) in a VirtualBox VM on my laptop, just to see what it could offer us. It was inevitably pretty fiddly and time-consuming but, despite reading three people independently saying it’s best to rely on Claude to set things up, I thankfully didn’t need to sully my pure fingers with such collaboration (in two senses of the word). I mostly achieved my aim: be able to see info about the heat pump, hot water tank, battery, solar panels, and EV charger in one place, rather than several separate apps of varying quality.

HA is pretty amazing really, for a free open-source thing. There’s more I could do with it, other than the many graphs I’ve now got, but I’ll wait to show Mary (currently away for two weeks trekking round a mountain in the Alps) before we decide whether to set up something more permanent.


§ I finished reading The Go-Between by L. P. Hartley this week and it was very good! I love it when an old (1953) book is readable, rather than feeling like a worthy chore. A good account of what it’s like to be a boy who doesn’t know as much as he thinks he does, albeit a public schoolboy in 1900.


§ We finished watching The Undoing which was alright. I mean, I quite enjoyed it – easy to watch, entertaining, not too stressful – although I’m not sure it was good. I realised that with shows like this (and this may be a very unoriginal thought) you’re not trying to work out “whodunnit”, but “who did the writers finally say dunnit”. There’s no objective truth to discern about the characters, it’s just what would be the best story. It’s guessing what writers think, not who did a crime.

Anyway, a murder, very wealthy white people, very under-written non-white victims, Nicole Kidman doing not much other than staring out of her motionless face, and Donald Sutherland out-performing everyone.


§ And I finished watching Widow’s Bay which, like everyone says, was good. I can’t say I was gripped by it though, especially the couple of flashback-to-the-distant-past episodes, after which it took me a few weeks to must the enthusiasm to continue. Thankfully it wasn’t as horror as I feared, because that wouldn’t have been my cup of tea. Good, funny stuff though.


§ That’ll do. Home soon.


Read comments or post one

Childhood Exposure to Joint Custody Reforms and Adult Family Formation

Joint custody reforms are among the most consequential family-law changes for children, yet little is known about their long-term effects. Exploiting staggered adoption across US states and 13 million ACS observations, we show that childhood exposure reduces adult fertility by 7 percent, symmetrically for women and men and operates primarily through lower parenthood and couple formation. Effects are sub-additive within couples, while exposed individuals assortatively match. Our findings point to the formation of family preferences during childhood and align with a US fertility decline increasingly driven by rising childlessness and declining couple formation rather than smaller families among parents.

That is from a recent research paper by Daniel Fernández-Kranz and Sébastien Fontenay.  Via the excellent Samir Varma.

The post Childhood Exposure to Joint Custody Reforms and Adult Family Formation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

What would it look like to approach the grand planet Saturn? What would it look like to approach the grand planet Saturn?


A bubbling Betelgeuse

Today’s Picture of the Week, taken with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), reveals one of the most detailed views yet of the surface of Betelgeuse — the famous orange star in the constellation of Orion, 600 light-years away. Unlike our own Sun, which is relatively smooth and spherical, Betelgeuse is a red supergiant almost 800 times larger, with a highly uneven, lumpy surface.

Betelgeuse’s peaks and troughs originate from the motion of giant bubbles of hot gas rising from deep within the star to its surface. The team behind these observations suggest that this large-scale movement of gas leads to these ‘hotspots’ on the star’s surface. Surprisingly, however, the brightest hotspot seen in the new observations also appears in data recorded seven years earlier, much longer than the lifetimes predicted by current models.

The persistent nature of these hotspots may be connected to the orbit of a close companion star recently suggested by observations with ESO’s Very Large Telescope. The team was motivated to study the star’s surface to see whether hotspots could be related to events such as the dramatic dimming of Betelgeuse in 2020. As a star nearing the end of its life, there's another reason Betelgeuse draws astronomers. “Its eventual fate as a supernova makes it fascinating to know what it actually looks like now,” says lead author of the study Bill Dent, an astronomer at ESO. When Betelgeuse does eventually explode, it will be bright enough to see from Earth even in broad daylight.

Link

I DJ for Rick Rubin about music and patriotism

MUSIC EPISODE: “You think you understand patriotism, you have your hands around it–it’s the simple thing, but it turns out it’s not. And maybe, music and the history of music shows us all that better than mere discourse about it.”

0:00:00 Tyler Cowen

0:00:24 Intro: Patriotism in Music

0:03:09 John Philip Sousa & Stars and Stripes Forever

0:07:38 Country Joe & the Fish: The Anti-War Song

0:16:49 Andrews Sisters & Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy

0:22:04 Liszt & Bartók: Hungarian Independence

0:36:29 Dvořák, Rossini & William Tell

0:47:24 Stockhausen, Percy Grainger & Sacred War

0:59:59 Trinidad, Congo & Brazil: Independence Songs

1:21:49 William Byrd & the Sex Pistols

1:28:00 Elgar, Charles Ives & Chuck Berry

Here is one link to the podcast itself, here is another.  Recorded in Tuscany, definitely recommended, all fresh material.

The post I DJ for Rick Rubin about music and patriotism appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

What Lake Bonneville Left Behind

Tan and white plains surround a dark mountainous ridge in a three-dimensional image of the Silver Island Mountains.
The rugged terrain of the Silver Island Mountains and Crater Island rises above the pale playa and bright salt flats of former Lake Bonneville. The image was acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 on June 4, 2026, and overlaid on a digital elevation model.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

At its peak, ancient Lake Bonneville would have been a sight to behold. Nearly as large as Lake Michigan, the Ice Age lake spread across much of western Utah and parts of Nevada and Idaho. When it eventually receded, it left behind flat, bright playas and salt flats rich with minerals—a landscape that would later serve as the setting for feats of engineering and technological ingenuity, as well as epic tales of exploration and desperation.

Lake Bonneville began forming about 55,000 years ago during a cool, wet period, when volcanic eruptions in what’s now southeastern Idaho diverted the Bear River, causing water to gather in Gem Valley and other basins to the south. For tens of thousands of years, a natural dam at Red Rock Pass helped confine the lake.

Then, about 18,000 years ago, water breached that dam, unleashing a torrent that entered the Columbia River system. Over a six-week period, amid one of North America’s largest floods, lake levels plummeted by more than 350 feet (105 meters). As the climate warmed and dried in subsequent millennia, the lake shrank dramatically, leaving remnants that include today’s Great Salt Lake, Utah Lake, and Sevier Lake.

Lake Bonneville may be gone, but its imprint on the region’s landscape remains—even in satellite imagery. In this image (below) captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on the NASA-USGS Landsat 8 satellite, bathtub-like rings and wave-cut terraces trace the position of former shorelines. The dried lakebed—where fine-grained clay, marl, and sandy sediment settled out of the water—appears pale in comparison to the darker, rockier, more vegetated surroundings.

A nadir view shows Crater Island—a dark, linear mountain ridge in the center of the image—flanked by flat tan and white landscapes.
NASA scientists analyzed the terrain in this part of Utah when testing technologies that will be used on NASA’s DAVINCI mission to Venus. This image was acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 on June 4, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

In deep parts of the basin, where runoff and groundwater still pool, bright deposits of evaporite minerals coat the land surfaces, forming salt flats. These remarkably flat surfaces are the product of water gradually evaporating and concentrating minerals to produce brines and hard mineral crusts, typically including halite and gypsum, along with potassium- and magnesium-bearing salts. Brines and deposits like these—particularly of potash, which is used as a fertilizer—have long made the playa a target for mining, as seen in the rectangular evaporation ponds above and below.

In contrast, the darker, more rugged terrain—including the Silver Island Mountains, the Newfoundland Mountains, and the Pilot Range—that rises above the playas is built from layers of erosion-resistant sedimentary and metasedimentary bedrock that is hundreds of millions of years old. These mountains also contain younger igneous and metamorphic rocks that formed when magma intruded into the ancient sedimentary sequence.

Crater Island, for instance, is composed of sedimentary rocks, including silica-rich sandstones and quartzites that formed as sands accumulated in a shallow ocean, as well as intrusions of quartz monzonite, granites, and other igneous rocks. Periods of crustal stretching later produced the fault-block mountains that define the landscape.

Grayscale aerial image of rugged desert terrain showing branching channels, ridges, and broad textured plains with contrasting light and dark tones.
This animation shows the descent over Crater Island, Utah, of the camera system that will one day fly aboard NASA’s DAVINCI mission to Venus. It was created by stitching together 37 infrared images captured during a test on June 24, 2026.
Malin Space Science Systems/NASA/Jay Friedlander

Mapping geological distinctions like this took center stage in June 2026 when NASA scientists and engineers working with the agency’s DAVINCI mission came to Crater Island—a place they call “Venus on Earth”—to field-test the design of a set of cameras and a package of instruments that will eventually descend through the thick atmosphere of Venus and photograph mountains at scales finer than these Landsat images. During a 60-minute descent, the pioneering probe will capture near-infrared images, measure the atmospheric chemistry, and explore the environment of a world in unprecedented detail.

During the rehearsals at Crater Island, the camera system took hundreds of images of various rock formations, including iron-rich and silica-rich rock units, while suspended from a helicopter as it descended toward the surface. Using only the images acquired by DAVINCI’s camera systems, the team made three-dimensional maps of the area consistent with existing geologic maps, giving the scientists confidence that they will be able to map the geology of an analogous mountainous region on Venus that DAVINCI will study, an area called Alpha Regio.

Other epic adventures have played out on and around Lake Bonneville’s playas, as well. The flat, smooth surfaces have often been the setting for new land speed records. In 1960, Mickey Thompson became the first American to break the 400-miles-per-hour (640 kilometers-per-hour) barrier, hitting 406.60 miles per hour (654.36 kilometers per hour) in a streamlined race car on the Bonneville Salt Flats. The feat temporarily earned him the nickname “fastest man on Earth.”

Straight roads, colorful evaporation ponds, and a long racetrack are visible on bright white salt flats in a satellite image centered east of Wendover.
People mine minerals from the Bonneville Salt Flats and use its flat surface to pursue land speed records. This image was acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 on June 4, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

More recently, in August 2026, Andy Green, the first person to break the sound barrier on land, set a record for the fastest land speed in a hydrogen-fueled internal-combustion vehicle, reaching 406.320 miles per hour (653.909 kilometers per hour). By burning hydrogen rather than gasoline, the “rocket car” produced no carbon dioxide.

Nearly two centuries earlier, in August 1846, members of the ill-fated Donner-Reed Party also passed along the southern edge of Crater Island. As part of a shortcut toward Pilot Peak, they journeyed from Hastings Pass, past Floating Island, and toward Donner Spring. However, in an ominous sign of challenges to come, their heavy wagons broke through the thin salt crust and became mired in underlying mud, slowing them down and prompting them to abandon several wagons in the desert.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

You may also be interested in:

Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

Farming in Ancient Lake Agassiz
3 min read

The glacial lake left a layer of silt and clay in southeastern Manitoba, creating fertile farmland that was divided during…

Article
Rising Waters Swamp Lake Naivasha
6 min read

Relentless rains are threatening a lake in Kenya’s Great Rift Valley that has become a key hub in the global…

Article
America’s Emerald Isle
3 min read

Beaver Island is one in a string of verdant and scenic jewels in a northern Lake Michigan archipelago.

Article

The post What Lake Bonneville Left Behind appeared first on NASA Science.

Major SoCal late August heatwave this week, with modest but growing possibility of tropical storm remnants affecting CA in September

Across Southwest, a mid-late summer characterized by exceptional and sustained overnight warmth Following a record warm winter across most of the American West, it has also been a record (or near-record) warm summer across most of the interior West (and fire season from the Southern Rockies to the Great Basin to the Pacific Northwest has […]

The post Major SoCal late August heatwave this week, with modest but growing possibility of tropical storm remnants affecting CA in September first appeared on Weather West.

Debt and Tax Cuts

Chart 1 Center for American Progress

Federal debt is in the news. There were many headlines last week about the debt exceeding $40 trillion and now being bigger than the economy. There were also headlines about rising interest rates on long-term debt and the showy, ineffectual attempt of Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, to manipulate them down.

Some of this is hype. Properly measured, debt is “only” $32 trillion. The comparison with GDP involves apples and oranges. And as I argued the other day, rising rates do not signal an imminent fiscal crisis.

Yet the debt is indeed very large and some concern is warranted. In the next installment of this series, I will address policy recommendations for a future Democratic administration to address the debt. I say a Democratic administration because Republicans will deny that there is a debt problem as long as they hold the White House.

But first we need to ask the question of how we got here. JD Vance says that it’s Joe Biden’s fault, because of course he does. Many others blame either reckless public spending or the fiscal burden of an aging population.

The reality, however, is that U.S. debt would be much lower as a percentage of GDP, and would barely be in the news at all, without the revenue loss from tax cuts enacted by Republican presidents: George W. Bush in the 2000s, then Donald Trump during both of his terms.

Today’s primer will examine the causes of high current U.S. debt. Beyond the paywall I will discuss the following:

1. U.S. spending, taxes and debt in historical and international perspective

2. What happened to the Clinton surplus?

3. Population aging and “entitlements”

4. Tax cuts and revenue

Read more

Anthropic’s best AI model struggles to attract users as cheaper tools thrive

Anthropic’s best AI model struggles to attract users as cheaper tools thrive

A few interesting numbers in this FT story gathered from "people with knowledge of the matter":

  • Anthropic's "annualized revenue" for July is up to $65bn - it was $47bn in May, and I collected more historic numbers here.
  • Anthropic expect Q3 to be profitable according to the same model they used to declare Q2 profitable. "It also told investors that it had 6,000 customers that spend $100,000 annually or more."
  • As for OpenAI, "annualised revenue has jumped 35 per cent in the quarter to date and is now over $40bn, with the launch of GPT 5.6 in July jolting the company’s performance after a sluggish start to the year".

This article also introduced me to the Ramp AI index, which uses billing data from 70,000 Ramp credit card using companies to estimate model adoption.

Here's Ramp's breakdown of Anthropic model spend for July 2026, which looks reasonable given that Opus 5 was only released on July 24th, and supports the idea that Fable's cost has made it a less popular model:

  1. Opus 4.8: 28.0%
  2. Sonnet 4.6: 8.3%
  3. Fable 5: 8.0%
  4. Opus 4.6: 6.9%
  5. Sonnet 5: 3.6%
  6. Opus 5: 3.5%
  7. Opus 4.7: 1.7%
  8. Sonnet 4.5: 1.3%
  9. Haiku 4.5: 1.0%
  10. Opus 4.5: 0.7%

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, claude, claude-mythos-fable

Quoting Drew Breunig

Prior to Fable, it felt silly to waste too much time improving your coding harness or context strategies. A new model would arrive at the same price (or cheaper!) and paper over most of your problems.

But then Fable landed. It was (and still is!) incredible. But the cost was so high and Opus was good enough (as was 5.6, K3, and even GLM) for most of the code we needed.

So we started to think about what work went where.

Drew Breunig, Fable & The End of the Free Lunch

Tags: drew-breunig, anthropic, claude, llm-pricing, ai, llms, generative-ai, claude-mythos-fable

Sunday 23 August 1663

(Lord’s day). Up and to church without my wife, she being all dirty, as my house is. God forgive me, I looked about to see if I could spy Pembleton, but I could not, which did please me not a little. Home to dinner, and then to walk up and down in my house with my wife, discoursing of our family matters, and I hope, after all my troubles of mind and jealousy, we shall live happily still. To church again, and so home to my wife; and with her read “Iter Boreale,” a poem, made just at the King’s coming home; but I never read it before, and now like it pretty well, but not so as it was cried up. So to supper. No pleasure or discourse with Ashwell, with whom for her neglect and unconcernment to do any thing in this time of dirt and trouble in the house, but gadding abroad as she has been all this afternoon, I know not whither. After supper to prayers and to bed, having been, by a sudden letter coming to me from Mr. Coventry, been with Sir W. Pen, to discourse with him about sending 500 soldiers into Ireland. I doubt matters do not go very right there.

Read the annotations

Links 8/23/26

Links for you. Science:

Farm mice study shows antibiotic resistance is an environmental problem, not just a medical one (paper here)
Are wasps losing their rhythm?
Mount Pleasant residents say ‘hell no’ to trees of heaven
Who’s most at risk in the cyclospora outbreak? The farmworkers on the front lines.
Yes, COVID Is Still a Thing
Scientists Recreate the Melting ‘Diamond Rain’ of Neptune and Uranus. It May Help Fusion Power
Moderna and Merck’s Cancer Vaccine Is the Advance We’ve Been Waiting For

Other:

Why Are Dead Malls a Thing?
Woke What? Let’s Be Fucking Serious (were stupid things said? Yes. But the Trump administration is the most openly racist and bigoted administration since the Wilson administration–over a century ago–and Trump himself is an adjudicated rapist. Clearly, actions regarding civil rights and sexual assault did not go far enough).
Trump’s Lust for Vengeance Is Turning Into a Farce
Natalie Harp Should Concern Everyone—I Should Know, I Once Had Her Job
ICE gloves reveal how Trump’s revenge agenda is failing
Chatbots are doing the work of Congress with little oversight. From writing speeches to sorting constituent mail, AI is spreading through Congress faster than the rules governing its use. (we’re doomed)
Los Angeles fashion district feels like a ghost town a year after the raids
Trump Administration Moves to Allow Logging in Pristine National Forests
US firms that kept DEI policies despite ‘go woke, go broke’ threats thrived
Trump Backed Away From a Wall at Big Bend. But the Bulldozers Are Here.
Academic who accused Jason Arday of plagiarism suspended by his university. Researcher Nathan Cofnas previously claimed Black people would hold few high-profile positions in a meritocracy
Long Covid Bias Cases Fight Long Odds Even Before Reaching Court
US military base schools put new emphasis on Western civilization and Christianity
Baseless Threats Won’t Stop Our Independent Research, Says CAP’s Neera Tanden (Trump is so awful, we end up rooting for CAP and Tanden…)
NCBA Statement on President Trump’s Truth Social Post (ranchers aren’t happy!)
Beatty files emergency request to stop Trump’s name from returning to Kennedy Center
Silicon Valley’s Most Dangerous Innovation
Natalie Harp Is the Unsupervised Gatekeeper to the Man with the Nuclear Buttons
Across Nashville Neighborhoods, Parked Waymos Are Recording You
Trump’s Third Term: The Constitution does not enforce itself
Stack Underflow: Losing the Craft of Coding. Software engineers are now Claude Code managers. But how can I manage what I’m forgetting how to do myself?
Whistleblower says probes into antisemitism at colleges were ploys to harass and strip millions
What’s the Value of an Hour?
Proteinmaxxing is reshaping L.A. dining — and pushing small restaurants to the brink
Coordination
Natalie Harp’s taxpayer-funded salary under fire as it’s compared to pay of USS Lincoln sailors
The Health Of Our Big Beautiful President
Jason Arday Was the Real Scholar
Seattle Times Dipshit Quits Because His Editors Were Smart Enough To Spike His Stupid Columns
Trump wildly claims hospitals are performing ‘reverse surgery’ on trans patients ’at my order’

Due to need for 'absolute success,' China delays critical Moon launch to 2027

China's "Manned Space" program issued a terse announcement on Sunday regarding its much-anticipated Chang’e 7 lunar exploration mission.

The agency stated: "In keeping with the principle of proceeding prudently and reliably, and ensuring absolute success, after a comprehensive assessment it has been determined that the Chang’e 7 mission does not meet the conditions for launch and therefore cannot be carried out during the planned launch window this year."

The Chinese message offered no explanation for the cause of the delay from the Wenchang Space Launch Site, located on an island in the South China Sea. Consisting of a lunar orbiter, lander, rover, and a mini-hopper of a probe, the mission was due to launch as early as Sunday on a Long March 5 rocket. It is intended to land at the South Pole of the Moon.

Read full article

Comments

What Did Trump Do That Made Carney Walk Away?

You’ve probably seen that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has walked away from trade talks with the U.S. That has led the U.S. to impose staggeringly large (and certainly illegal) tariffs on Canada, and Canada is responding in kind. It’s not clear precisely what demands the U.S. made that prompted Carney to do this. Given the pain this will cause Canada, at least in the near-term far more than the U.S., they must have been not only unacceptable but an affront to Canada’s sovereignty and national dignity.

As I understand it, negotiations appeared to be going well and productively. They began as an attempt to find an agreement to forestall Trump’s original threat of a new round of draconian and illegal tariffs. Indeed, they appeared to be so near completion that an article I saw mid-week referred to Mexico eyeing and looking to negotiate a deal with comparable contours. Point being, it was a measure not only of how well the negotiations appeared to be going but how close they seemed to completion. The broad outlines were known to other interested countries.

Then Carney abruptly ended them in response to new demands.

Canada is much smaller than the U.S., less than 1/10th the size in population and economy. The self-destruction the U.S. is doing here is vast. But in the near term, the pain for Canada is much greater. So what was this new demand? There’s simply no way this was triggered by wrangling over final details. Indeed, Carney’s public statements make this clear, despite his not sharing just what the demands were. I think it must have been demands that genuinely compromised Canadian sovereignty. It can’t literally have been that Canada become a U.S. state, since then any trade deal is moot. But I wonder how far from that it was. Carney referred to the demands as “unfair [and] uneconomic” and at another point said, “we were not prepared to compromise Canada’s sovereignty or undermine our key industries.”

We know from Trump’s business history that mafia-style squeezes are one of his trademarks. Specifically, he was known for introducing last-minute demands that were so over-the-top and shocking that the counterparty would simply be bewildered and thrown off balance and start negotiating against themselves.

Back in early 2016, a TPM Reader who’d spent his career in the New York real estate and knew Trump and those like him described it like this …

There is a personality type with a New York developer, one Donald learned from Fred when he carried his dad’s briefcase to acquisition meetings out in the boroughs and it goes like this:

Donald contracts for a service or good, or the acquisition of a piece of land for $1 million.

He then does not pay you

You ask Donald for your million dollars

Donald yells at you, basely, abusively, wholly out of character to the rich gentleman you broke bread with and made the deal with. He tells you that no, YOU owe him $200,000. Gives you no reason but screams how can you be such a son of a bitch to rip him off, how he’s going to sue you, expose you as a cheat, etc.

You’re off your pins, defensive. How could this be the guy who was so nice when he picked up the check at Per Se?

So, you compromise, because human nature avoids conflict, right? This is what he’s gaming you for because once you compromised, you’ve lost. You’ve inferred his premise that you have some complicity in the matter otherwise why would you compromise? You are on the defensive and will never get it back.

You offer $750,000 as a settlement, angry buy want it over and done with. He then sues you. Why, because you’ve already committed yourself to the loss. You volunteered to surrender your position and what will stop you from keeping going?

I’ve seen many a New Yorker settle things like this with Trump people for 5-10 cents on the dollar and then happy, even eager to keep doing business with them. Why? Because he got in their heads with this aggressively counterintuitive behavior.

This isn’t the same as an end-of-negotiation ambush, as seems to have happened here. But it’s very much the same energy.

My best guess is that something like that happened at the end of last week. Because what Trump wants — particularly in the psychic space he’s been in since last fall — isn’t any particular trade deal but a burst of domination over and humiliation of the guy on the other side of the table. As we’ve discussed in other contexts in recent months, Trump is now especially craving these bursts of dominating adrenaline, which act as a kind of executive self-soothing, because of the pressure he feels over his diminished power on so many other fronts.

Late Update: Carney now says that “in the last hours,” the U.S. introduced demands to restrict Canada’s ability to make trade deals with other countries.

Late Update II: Trump also apparently insisted on the inclusion of terms which would allow Trump to unilaterally impose 50% tariffs if Trump decided, unilaterally, that Canada wasn’t being nice. Obviously “being nice” wasn’t the language. But it grants the U.S. side too much to indulge whatever the language might have been, since the point was it was at Trump’s discretion. In a way, he seemed to be insisting on the same total power which Trump claims to find in U.S. law — and which kind of exists there but mostly doesn’t. In a way, this only formalizes Trump’s actions. He renegotiated NAFTA in his first term and then threw that out. But it would certainly take things to another level to sign an agreement in which Canada binds itself to a specific trade regime and Trump (or in theory a future president) can still impose new tariffs if they feel like it.

Cooper Sharp Proves That American Cheese Can Be Great Cheese

John Moltz, in his weekly members-only column for Six Colors (no gift links, but Moltz’s column is worth the subscription in and of itself):

This week Anthropic announced that in order to identify AI from human-generated content it would be watermarking all text it generates by subtly altering the randomness at which its models picked the next word. While this might seem a perfectly cromulent means of accomplishing a worthy goal, it really rubbed John Gruber the wrong way, as if someone suggested putting autocomplete Swiss on his Philly cheesesteak AI.

Cooper Sharp cheese is the way to go. The best new cheesesteak joint in town — Uncle Gus’s — only offers Cooper Sharp, in fact.

Surely a fair number of the hundreds and hundreds of bees that have nested in Gruber’s extremely fancy bonnet are a result of the fact that this is all ostensibly in response to a mandate from the EU. But, as James Thomson has suggested, Anthropic might actually want to watermark so that it doesn’t scoop up its own output to train its models, thereby degrading the results. In fact, the company would probably love to be able to figure out other companies’ watermarks and have them not be able to figure out its watermark.

For the record, my opposition to Claude’s plan to begin watermark-adulterating all generated text, worldwide, has nothing to do with it ostensibly being to comply with a regulation from the EU. I do think the EU regulation is deeply ill-considered (and, having been drafted in 2024, already technically out of date), but I’d have written everything I wrote (and will continue to write) about the matter even if the EU had no AI-related regulations in place. In fact, while writing my initial piece, I really wished this had nothing to do with the EU, because pointing out the folly of the regulation (and the ridiculousness of a company supposedly worth $2 trillion being technically unable to comply with an EU regulation without applying the changes globally) seemed a distraction from my point, regarding the ramifications of watermarking text by way of detectable word choices. Moltz’s aside here confirms that.

Also, more and more, I do think this has little to do with the EU regulation and everything to do with Anthropic and Google wanting to watermark the text that Claude and Gemini generate for their own purposes, to identify text to avoid training future models on to avoid model collapse/AI inbreeding. I suspect blaming the decision on the EU “Code of Practice” regulation is just scapegoating on Anthropic’s part.

(As a bonus, Moltz has a deliciously sharp (no cheese pun intended) take on the schadenfreude-rich saga of MacStories returning to Twitter/X.)

 ★ 

Sunday assorted links

1. “Underestimating something that has an AI “accent” by reflexively dismissing it as slop rhymes curiously with underestimating someone because they have a funny accent in your native language (and it isn’t one of the accents that you think signals superiority, like the BBC British accent for English).”  V. Rao.

2. Profile of Joe Lonsdale.  And from the NYT, mostly on Cicero and homelessness.

3. Graceland just isn’t that impressive.

4. Mill, Hayek, and liberalism.

5. Interview with Peter McCrory, Head Economist at Anthropic.

6. Will AI intensify or weaken market competition?

7. This economist is not a nominalist.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

The US-Canada Trainwreck and the Limits of American Power

A few more thoughts on the collapse of U.S.-Canadian trade negotiations and the over-the-top U.S. predation that led to it. (See my earlier post here.) Here’s a portion of an analysis piece from the Toronto Star …

Doing a deal under the conditions Carney described would clearly have undermined Canada’s pivot to new markets by putting Carney firmly under the thumb of the U.S.

As the prime minister described it, he was faced with a trade agreement that was suddenly transformed into an attack on Canadian sovereignty, an attempted psychological annexation that could have turned Canada into an American client state, a sort of North American Belarus.

It does, however, jive with Trump’s repeated 51st state taunts when he returned to the White House.

And Trump’s National Security Strategy said of America’s neighbours in the Western Hemisphere: “We want other nations to see us as their partner of first choice, and we will (through various means) discourage their collaboration with others.”

As Donald Trump not so much dismantles the U.S.-backed global order as dynamites it, that destruction coupled with the rise of a more vocal and electorally prominent U.S. left has renewed the discussion of just what that U.S.-backed global order was. This passage and this whole U.S.-Canada breakdown illustrates a lot of it.

The U.S. has been a great power by various definitions for more than a century. It was one of two for most of the latter half of the 20th century and the sole one starting in the final decade of the 20th century.

To understand this now-receding era, we must recognize that U.S. power functioned differently with the relatively wealthy states primarily in the global north and those poorer states mainly in the south. Its power was based largely on two key alliance structures: One based in Europe (NATO) which is really the western fringe of Eurasia and another based on the littoral and island fringe of East Asia — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, et al. It was a book I read by Zbigniew Brzezinski about 20 years ago that really shaped my understanding of how these two alliance structures fit together with global geography. The U.S. completely dominates North America by its economic, military and even geographical heft and faces no real strategic competitors in South America. So we’re free of any real foes in our whole hemisphere.

Meanwhile, these two alliance structures create counterweights to Eurasia’s two great land powers, Russia and China. One of the reasons this has been a sustainable arrangement is that it worked for both sides. The U.S. gets things it wants. For Western Europe and littoral East Asia, it provides a counterweight to the local potential dominator/bully. But, critically, that counterweight comes from a partner which isn’t too close at hand. The U.S. is big and powerful. But they are and will always be across the sea, over the horizon.

This schema of course leaves out a huge amount of the globe. But it was a stable and mutually beneficial system, and at least until quite recently covered most of the globe’s wealth, as well as real and potential military power. (It’s also no accident that most of the U.S.’s problems, wars and blunders over the last two generations have been in another place that doesn’t fit into this schema geographically, culturally or really any other way: the Greater Middle East.) And the key to its stability is that in those two alliance structures, the U.S. didn’t ask that much. No, the U.S. isn’t a global philanthropist bringing peace and prosperity to all. But its terms are fairly generous. In these two theaters, the U.S. has acted not as a dominator but more like a first among equals.

Critics of U.S. power have always stumbled on this basic fact. For all the purported similarities between the U.S. and Russian great power models, why are countries in Europe trying to stay in or enter into our imperium rather break free of it? Ukraine illustrates all of this. It’s why Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union and its security counterpart, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, have been basically a bust while the EU and NATO have grown. Yes, yes, yes, the CIA and Victoria Nuland are the secret hands and all the rest. The reality is that the proof of the pudding has been in the eating.

The basic answer on all these fronts is that the U.S. imperium, for those who wish to call it that, is, in these two theaters, a good deal. It doesn’t ask that much. The U.S. has operated as a first among equals, not a mob boss. The centerpiece of Trumpism is that it wants to be a dominator, especially in the regions where that’s plausible, the Americas. (It’s no accident that the Star says the Trump wants to make Canada into an American Belarus, a nominally sovereign client state.) And in the short term the U.S. has a lot of power to do that, or at least extract big costs from countries which don’t comply. But the U.S. was never powerful enough and certainly isn’t powerful enough now to be the dominator of Europe and littoral East Asia, and certainly not the entire globe — not without infinitely larger spending on military power. We’re already seeing the de facto limits of U.S. military might with an adversary as comparatively feeble as Iran.

The simple fact is that for all the other evils of Trumpism, they simply don’t understand the basis of American power, military or economic. That’s the basis of the absurdity of the last decade, in which the U.S. is somehow the defiant rebel against the system it created for its own prosperity and security and which has ensured both for going on a century. Listen to their thinking and you see it clearly: We’re the big power. We’re in charge. But we don’t act like we’re in charge. We let ourselves get pushed around. Now we’re going to be in charge. They simply don’t understand that to the extent we are “in charge,” the underlying basis of the agreement puts us in charge. It’s the comparatively easy terms of American global power. They really do imagine that U.S. allies are something like colonies or Finlandized client states that we’ve just let get over their skis.

The truth is that this precedes Trumpism. We saw this in that pivotal 18 months or so between the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and the invasion of Iraq in early 2003. (I actually wrote a review essay about this conversation and the books it spawned in a review essay in The New Yorker at the end of 2003.) It was less impetuous and feral. But the outlines are the same: We’re in charge. But we haven’t been acting like we’re in charge. And it’s that lackadaisical approach to managing the globe that made things like 9/11 possible. So now we’re going to actually be in charge. Again, a basic misunderstanding of the basis on which we are “in charge.”

In truth, though I’ve been a partisan in these debates for half my life, a lot of this was probably inevitable with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the major counterweight to American power, which shaped the “good” decisions America made to put this whole system in place. A different and more fecund line of argument is whether the deal America made with its major allies drove unequal shifts in America’s domestic economy which ended up undermining the American domestic political foundations of these global alliances. That’s a complicated question. But there’s at least a there there.

I’ve talked a lot here about big think and the nature and limits of American power. I should conclude with what I hope goes without saying but still needs to be said. This breakdown in U.S.-Canada relations isn’t just a misapprehension of the nature of American power. It’s deeply wrong, an unprovoked assault on friendly neighbors and longstanding partners with whom we share so much. As I wrote to a Canadian, discussing this this morning, this whole episode is a source of shame and embarrassment for the United States.

In Case You Missed It…

…a week of Mad Biologist posts:

The Mainland Colony of D.C., Once Again, Could Serve as a Laboratory for Wingnuts

The Abundance Bros Are Never Around When You Need Them: The Other Problem with the Proposed NIH Grant Score Reporting Format

The Scale of De-Trumpification Will Need to Be Massive–And There’s Lots of Small Stuff to Fix Too

Another Bad Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

Reasons to be cheerful discusses kidney exchange

 The magazine Reasons to be cheerful has a cheerful discussion of kidney exchange (which includes some reflections by Mike Rees on non-simultaneous chains):

The Chains of Generosity Transforming Kidney Donation
More than 90,000 people in the U.S. are on the waitlist for a kidney transplant. How many of their lives could be saved by strangers?  By: Anna Patton 

 "Momentum is building in the U.S. behind the proposed End Kidney Deaths Act, which would provide a refundable tax credit of $50,000 to those who donate a kidney to a stranger. Campaigners say this would remove financial barriers to donating, which include loss of income during testing, surgery and recovery — while saving the billions of dollars currently spent on dialysis. "

Democracy and Caeserism

In my 2015 post discussing Joseph Heath’s excellent book Enlightenment 2.0, I had this to say:

One of the reasons that I oppose the extension of democratic politics into every aspect of modern life is precisely that in trying to do too much, democracy delivers incoherence, gridlock and frustration, forces that eventually undermine its own legitimacy. I worry about democratic legitimacy because I see democracy as a check and balance on Leviathan (while Heath sees it as a check on government by experts).

The legislature has become a sideshow. But I worry, because the more Congress is held in contempt the greater the support for a bold executive that takes charge, makes decisions and gets things done. Under these pressures, executive power has grown not just in the United States but also in Canada and Great Britain (on this theme see F.H. Buckley’s The Once and Future King.) But for all its faults, the legislature and the rule of law are more conducive to liberty than the executive and the administrative state. Legislators are satisfied with reelection and a bit of pork but executives hunger for greatness and in so doing they promote the real dangers, idolatry, the centralization of power and war.

In short, I worry that the pathologies of democracy drive the demand not for rational, technocratic government but for Caesarism.

I should note that this was before Donald Trump was a Republican presidential contender, let alone a candidate for office.

Addendum: See also  my review of Enlightenment 2.0. It has some good lines!

The propagandizing messages of markets and politics are also very different. Market messages are largely inclusive and cosmopolitan. Coca-Cola advertises “I’d Like to Buy the World a Coke” because they’d like the world to buy a Coke. Firms do try to build brand affiliation but they rarely do so by promoting hatred of their competitors. Pepsi doesn’t tell the Pepsi Generation that Coke drinkers are stealing their jobs and spitting on their gods.

Hat tip: @kingofthecoastt who recently tweeted about the original post.

The post Democracy and Caeserism appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

August 22, 2026

On Tuesday, August 18, during a debate for a runoff to win the South Carolina Republican senatorial primary, Senator Darline Graham (R-SC) answered a question about Taiwan and the importance of the South China Sea by saying: “I’m not that informed on national security.” She paused, and added: “But I do support the military.”

The audience reacted with boos and gasps. Senators are supposed to manage national security.

Trying to clean up her mistake, Graham went to an interview with the friendly Sean Hannity at the Fox News Channel, where she tried to make a virtue of her error by saying it reflects that she is not a politician. Then she added that people in South Carolina are worried less about foreign affairs than they are about affordability, “boys in girls’ sports,” the Second Amendment, “illegal immigration,” and the SAVE America Act.

Journalist Parker Molloy noted that trans girls have been banned from competing in K–12 girls sports since 2022 and are banned from competing in the NCAA and the Olympics. “This is literally an issue that doesn’t affect SC at all anymore,” Molloy noted. “They got what they wanted. How is this still a priority?”

Graham perfectly represents the modern Republican Party. South Carolina governor Henry McMaster appointed her to fill the vacancy caused by the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham. McMaster said Trump “thought it was a great idea” for her to replace her brother, and she has indicated her loyalty to Trump and her willingness to pass the SAVE America Act he so badly wants in order to rig the 2026 midterm elections. Graham has little political experience, and with little to offer voters other than loyalty to Trump, she is simply echoing Republican culture war talking points that worked for him in 2016.

But it appears voters don’t like living in the world Trump is creating.

As Cleve R. Wootson Jr. noted yesterday in the Washington Post, Trump went to South Carolina last night to help Graham’s campaign. He told those attending the rally that the election was really about him. Although Graham’s opponent in the runoff, Representative Ralph Norman, has made much of Graham’s inexperience, Trump told rally attendees: “They’re only fighting Darline because they want me to lose.”

Wootson notes that Trump is hoping for a Graham win to restore some of the power that is slipping away as his popularity continues to slide to new lows. Primary candidates he backed for governor in Iowa, Georgia, Wyoming, and Minnesota all lost, as did those he backed in congressional primaries in Michigan and Tennessee.

Indeed, as Graham was fumbling the debate last Tuesday, two former teachers endorsed by Democrats flipped the Sarasota, Florida, school board. That board had been dominated by right-wing candidates since 2022, led by Moms for Liberty co-founder Bridget Ziegler, who has said public schools are “indoctrination centers for the radical left” and that she wanted to bring “religious values” to them.

Formed in 2021, Moms for Liberty was behind the book banning of the past several years. Ziegler is married to the former chair of the Florida Republican Party, who was forced out of his position after a woman alleged he had raped her in relation to the three-way sexual relationship she had with the Zieglers. Bridget Ziegler refused to step down from the school board after the scandal broke.

As Kerry Sheridan of WUSF reported, Beth Mayberry and Megan Tennimon ran on issues of school funding, academic achievement, and helping students in underserved areas. Both won their races by more than 10 percentage points.

As political historian Joanne Freeman put it Saturday morning in our chat on What the Heck Just Happened?, when Republican leaders in 2020 decided not to write a political platform at all, but simply to “reassert the Party’s strong support for President Donald Trump and his Administration” and to say it would “continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda,” they gave him every reason to think that “all of the things that he’s doing to promote himself—the races and the gold and everything else—that that’s all campaigning. It’s all about him.”

Then, when party leaders in 2024 essentially turned Trump’s social media posts into a platform, they embraced the idea that the party could stay in power through slogans. They promised to “DEFEAT INFLATION, AND QUICKLY BRING DOWN ALL PRICES,” to “BRING BACK THE AMERICAN DREAM AND MAKE IT AFFORDABLE AGAIN FOR FAMILIES, YOUNG PEOPLE, AND EVERYONE,” to “promote a Foreign Policy centered on the most essential American Interests, starting with protecting the American Homeland, our People, our Borders, our Great American Flag, and our Rights under God,” and so on.

The Republican Party tied itself to Trump and remains tied to him as he devotes his time to celebrating himself with his ballroom, a UFC cage match at the White House, his triumphal arch, renovations to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, and now this weekend’s “Freedom 250 Grand Prix” around the National Mall in Washington, D.C., in which 25 IndyCar drivers are covering 147 laps at speeds up to 150 mph around a 1.7-mile (2.7 km), 7-turn street circuit loop past the U.S. Capitol, the Washington Monument, the National Archives, and the National Gallery of Art.

The race has required workers to weld down more than 200 manhole covers, move traffic lights, and put up barriers that have disrupted traffic, while the National Gallery of Art has had to protect its sculptures from vibrations and airlines have had to reroute flights.

Meanwhile, the country remains embroiled in an apparently purposeless war in Iran; the economy is slowing and prices of food and gas are rising; Americans are horrified by the tactics of ICE and Border Patrol, who have abused and killed immigrants and U.S. citizens alike; Trump, his family, and his allies have put at least $2.2 billion in Trump’s pockets; and Trump has alienated our closest allies.

Just after midnight on August 21, Trump imposed a 50% tariff on a range of goods from Canada. Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney suspended trade negotiations with the U.S. and said Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. beginning September 8. In a statement, Carney said: “We have recognised from the beginning that America has changed, and that we will not return to our old relationship.” Canada, he said, will be “focused on building our strength at home [and] diversifying our partnerships abroad.”

And now the story that the closest advisor to the President of the United States is a 35-year-old woman who seems unhealthily obsessed with him ties Republican Party leadership to the reality that they are permitting the destruction of the United States with barely a whimper.

As Trump led Republicans into a box canyon, they have left an open field for Democrats to redefine the nation’s politics.

On August 17, former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg recorded a video to assure those Americans who oppose the Trump administration that they are in the large majority. He noted that the strategy Republicans are pursuing shows how unpopular they are.

“Think about it,” he said. “They’re not out there showing that the economy is somehow better than it looks…. They’re not defending their cuts to healthcare, they’re not defending the tax cuts for the wealthy. They’re not defending the corruption that’s going on in Washington.”

“It’s too late for that,” he said, because “we’ve all seen that those policies have failed. They made us all pay tariffs and said the reason we got to do this is to bring back manufacturing jobs…. Well, we paid the tariffs, and then America lost manufacturing jobs. They cut taxes for the rich. They said we’ve got to do that in order to speed up economic growth. And what happened? Economic growth slowed down…. They said they were going to cut costs and prices. Inflation is actually higher now than the day Donald Trump took office. They said they were gonna drain the swamp. And then they expect us to be okay with the first family making a billion dollars or more in crypto deals while the president’s in office….

“A lot of people believed this president and Republicans when they said no new wars. Then, what do we get? A war with Iran in the Middle East right now, which means all of us here at home are paying higher gas prices.”

The Republican strategy is not to change their policies, Buttigieg said. “It’s changing the maps. Changing the rules. Because that’s the only way they could win. They know they’re on the wrong side of the American people….

“You’re already in the majority if you think that we need healthcare for all, not Medicaid cuts and cutting Obamacare…. Right now, if you think that the wealthiest people in the country need to be paying their fair share in taxes, which is more than they’re doing today, where they currently pay less than a lot of teachers and nurses and firefighters. You are definitely in the majority if you believe that the wealthiest nation in the world ought to do the best job of funding public education and making sure it works. Not this Republican approach, which is to literally eliminate the Department of Education. You’re not alone if you think that in any decent economy, one job ought to be enough. And you’re certainly not alone if you believe that a woman’s healthcare decisions ought to be up to her and no one else, that in a free country, you should get to be who you are, and love who you love, and live a life of your choosing. When you believe these things, you’re not just not alone. You’re part of a powerful majority. Really a supermajority of the American people.

“So, whether you’re a Democrat, an independent, or someone who has generally voted Republican in the past, most voters want the same things right now: to be led and represented by normal people who are good at getting things done. People want leaders who respect those who disagree or vote differently instead of calling them the enemy. People who know that God does not belong to a political party in the United States of America. Most voters want to elect leaders who are not simply trying to rebuild the past, but trying to create something new and better.”

Notes:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6037420-darline-graham-national-security-knowledge-criticism/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/21/trump-heads-south-carolina-campaign-darline-graham/

https://floridatrident.org/florida-gop-chair-christian-ziegler-husband-of-a-moms-for-liberty-cofounder-accused-of-battery-by-alleged-menage-a-trois-lover/

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/sarasota-school-board-moms-for-liberty-00131448

https://www.wusf.org/politics-issues/2026-08-18/sarasota-primary-results-2026-two-democrat-endorsed-candidates-win-school-board-ousting-conservative-majority

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/resolution-regarding-the-republican-party-platform

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform

https://www.npr.org/2026/08/22/nx-s1-5941584/us-canada-tariffs

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/how-to-navigate-downtown-dc-during-todays-freedom-250-grand-prix/4145072/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/22/us/politics/dc-grand-prix-indycar-traffic-damage.html

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/who-is-natalie-harp-trump-aide-explained.html

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/trump-discloses-1-000-stock-trades-in-june-2e5b0773

https://apnews.com/article/lindsey-graham-dies-south-carolina-whats-next-5ba55574ce6f087d56999abe3a7f9fdc

Pete Buttigieg's Substack
Don’t Let Them Fool You: You are Not Alone
Read more

YouTube:

live/CzJbV3StQnY at 22:48.

X:

Acyn/status/2090247538859499654

ParkerMolloy/status/2090455169775321158

markjcarney/status/2091008744427598021

Share

Do We Value an Educated Community?

My recent visit to Anthropic

I very recently participated in a two-day session to offer guidance on rewriting the constitution for Claude.  The small group invited was uniformly excellent, we received serious time with key decision-makers, and the discussions were of very high quality.

Some of the points I stressed were the following:

1. Whatever one might take a “constitution” to mean in this context, it needs to borrow more from analogs to case law and the common law.

2. Along related lines, think more in terms of “Talmud,” and not just in terms of “Torah.”

3. Work to help build out a quality secondary literature on the AI constitutions and related documents.  Currently this does not exist.

4. Consider how a panel of diverse AIs, with different prompts, could help to evaluate to what extent Claude (and other AI models) were acting in accord with their constitutions.

5. Have a final board of human adjudicators, functioning in a manner analogous to an independent judiciary.  To the extent the panel of diverse AIs might have concerns about Claude not following its constitution, those AIs could alert the human adjudicators to what was going on.  Those human adjudicators could then have authority over potential changes and remedies.

Here a recent short post on using internal courts and the common law to help govern/self-govern AI.  And on the courts.

I thank Anthropic for having us in.

The post My recent visit to Anthropic appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Recorded the night of August 12-13, Recorded the night of August 12-13,


The new agentic O-ring world

But because agents often require guidance or additional context as they move through their tasks, Sharma, 27, finds himself wanting to be available to them around the clock and forgoing a regular sleep schedule as a result. Until recently, he couldn’t monitor them remotely through a phone or smartwatch.

“The cost of the agents’ being blocked for eight hours is way too high,” he says. “They can be done with their work at any point of time, in the middle of the night.”

Founders have long put in punishing hours in the name of building the next big thing. But the growing capabilities of AI agents—and the speed at which the models powering them are evolving—give new meaning to working yourself to the bone…

“They just demand your attention,” he says. “Does it need anything? Can I help it in any way?”

…Pezaris, who lives in San Mateo, Calif., typically works from 7:30 a.m. to 2 a.m. He estimates Proxon, which employs six human developers, is operating 30 times faster than it would without agents. But agent work begets human work: Onboarding customers at a faster clip means needing to respond to more customer requests, for example.

There is also an agent FOMO multiplier effect. “Every minute that I’m not working, I’m missing out on not doing a week’s worth of work,” says Pezaris.

Here is more from Katherine Bindley at the WSJ.  As I have been joking in some of my talks, we need to start taking bets on when the AI leisure dividend will arrive.  It will, but not just yet…

The post The new agentic O-ring world appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

Jared Bernstein on Debt (Reposted with better transcript)

For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube.

Better transcript!

. . .

TRANSCRIPT:
Paul Krugman in Conversation with Jared Bernstein

(recorded 8/20/26)

Paul Krugman: Hi everyone. Paul Krugman talking with Jared Bernstein, former chief economist, head of the Council of Economic Advisers under Joe Biden. Now a policy fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and at the Center for American Progress, which is in DC.

Jared Bernstein: And I speak to you from Alexandria.

Krugman: Yeah, and the reason I want to talk with you is, you know, there’s a lot of headlines now about debt. Interest rates, particularly at the long end, are way up. You and I have both been Substacking about it. I think we mostly are on the same wavelength, but I’d like to go back and forth, and I want to talk about some work that you’ve done, particularly with Bobby Kogan. But what’s your take right now? I mean, we had all these headlines about forty trillion dollars of debt. This is very different from the way we were talking about debt a few years ago, so what’s your take?

Bernstein: Well, Paul, like you, for many years I was pushing back on those whose hair was on fire about the urgency of the federal debt. I thought that that overheating was overheated, and that as long as the growth rate surpassed the interest rate and we sort of kept our deficits within kind of a normal range, we could service our debt without breaking a sweat. But a few years ago, I began to become more hawkish and less dovish for a couple of reasons. One, the budget math became less favorable; the growth rate looked a lot closer to the interest rate, and that was before this recent bump up in bond yields. But also, you know, I’ve been in government a lot lately, and it looked to me like neither side really cared much at all. The reaction function, as we say these days, seemed to have been kind of dead in a way that I thought was problematic.

Now, this is not a pox on both houses. And by the way, here’s an area where you and I may have slightly different views. The Republicans’ tax cuts—and Bobby and I have done a lot of work on this—are public enemy number one here. Exhibit A, in terms of why we’re in the mess we’re in. But you know, Democrats have largely endorsed those tax cuts and, in my view, have done some irresponsible stuff, too. So that’s kind of my first take.

Krugman: Okay. You’re talking about r-g, but that’s kind of an important point, right? Why do we think about interest and growth and debt? Lots of people are out there saying, “Look, the interest on the debt is now so huge,” but that’s not quite the whole story, but it’s closer to the story. Anyway, your version of it...

Bernstein: Yeah. For me, a lot of this comes from paying attention to Olivier Blanchard‘s work. He has kind of wedged into a lot of our heads this notion that when the growth rate surpasses the rate of interest, it is possible to keep rolling over that debt and not get into a kind of debt spiral because you’re generating enough growth and revenues and incomes to sustain the debt or to roll it over. Meaning, you know, replace some old debt with new debt without worrying about the debt getting on an unsustainable trajectory. As soon as r is bigger than g, that’s when you have the threat of a debt spiral.

That’s not all the math. It depends on the size of your deficits as well. But broadly speaking, for many years we had pretty good growth and pretty low interest rates. We can talk about how that growth was distributed—a lot of it didn’t reach working-class people—but the fact that g, the growth rate, was higher than the interest rate was one reason why I was less wound up about all this.

Krugman: Yeah, one of my favorite things is talking about the question of “How did we pay off the debt from World War II?” And the answer is we didn’t. The debt when John F. Kennedy was elected was about the same as it had been on V-J Day in dollar terms, but it was just vastly smaller as a share of the economy because we outgrew it. As long as debt doesn’t rise relative to GDP, it’s not a problem. That means if the economy is growing and interest rates are not too high, not only don’t you have to pay off the debt, you can actually keep it growing as long as it just doesn’t grow too fast, right?

Bernstein: Exactly. So the problem we face is when our debt grows faster than our economy, when the debt ratio, or the debt-to-GDP, just keeps going up and up and up.

Krugman: Basically for much of the period when everybody was going on and on about debt, the arithmetic there was actually pretty favorable, right?

Bernstein: This is precisely why I kind of did a bit of a flip. I have an Op-ed in the Times—it’s from at least a year ago—where I managed to actually get them to put a graph in, which, you know, they don’t always do in there, which portrays this problem. It shows how the growth rate used to just reliably be well above the interest rate, where the economy grows faster than the debt, and so your debt-to-GDP ratio sort of glides along in a way that’s not particularly worrisome. But it looks like it’s starting to flip and starting to change.

And then if you look at the CBO forecast, they actually have the interest rate on the debt falling below the growth rate numerous years out. And their estimates actually are kind of optimistic in debt terms because they assume a number of things: they assume tariffs continue to generate a bunch of revenue, which doesn’t look to be the case; they assume that some of the Trump tax cuts would fade, but now they’re permanent. So yeah, the budget math has gotten less comfortable.

Krugman: Okay. I want to get to the interest rates in a minute, but the deficit that we’re running right now is just incredibly large. I mean, we used to run deficits to fight wars, and then we started to have big deficits when you had severe recessions. But now we have neither. I mean, there’s a war, but it’s not like World War II, right? It’s a fraction of a percent of GDP.

Bernstein: Right, but it’s not free.

Krugman: Yeah, but it’s not forty percent of GDP. It’s something like six percent of GDP now, right?

Bernstein: Exactly. It’s a little north of six percent of GDP. And according to the kind of numbers that I run on this, with the macroeconomy doing pretty well—and again, I know it’s not reaching a lot of folks; affordability concerns loom large—but you know, GDP is growing around trend, which is about two percent real. The unemployment rate is close to four percent, which is in the neighborhood of full employment. And the stock market’s booming. We should have a deficit that’s closer to three percent than six percent.

And what’s happened here, Paul—and you’ve written about this extensively—is that the constant ratcheting down of tax policy. All those tax cuts introduced by Republicans, too often kind of kept in place by Democrats, have really broken the linkage between solid economic growth and revenue flows to the Treasury. And what Bobby and I show is that if you take the Bush and the Trump tax cuts out of the mix, our fiscal scene would look fine. So, you know, that’s important.

What you can do is simulate what the debt ratio would be—by debt ratio we mean debt-to-GDP—or what the deficit would be (either one), or what the interest payments on the deficit would be. You can simulate those if you take the Bush and the Trump tax cuts out of the system, which means taking them and not just the original cuts, but all the following-on legislation that made those cuts permanent.

You know, when I say Democrats have played a role here: I was in the Obama administration when we essentially made permanent 80% of the Bush tax cuts. That’s not a hundred percent, so I’m glad that we let at least 20% at the top end revert back to what they were. But that’s the exercise we did.

Krugman: The blue line in that chart is the projection for debt on the current trajectory, and up to the point where it gets dotted, it’s the actual debt-to-GDP. And it’s really three rounds, right? It’s Bush, which were very much tax cuts for the one percent; then Trump 1, more tax cuts for the one percent; and then Trump 2, even more tax cuts, not entirely for the one percent. Where we are now is not at all where we would be if we hadn’t had all of these tax cuts.

Bernstein: Yeah, and let me say something about this. First of all, I know you do a lot of economic history, which is just really great work in my opinion, and I just don’t want our viewers to not note that that graph started back in, I think, the late 1700s. So that’s some pretty good economic history there.

Remember, those figures, including the one that showed a much lower, much more sustainable debt path, include all the spending that is in the system. The only change we’re making is the tax cuts didn’t happen. And so this is important, because there are always going to be people who say, “You know, it’s all spending,” and “It’s all taxes,” and that’s a common fight. But that figure keeps the spending precisely where CBO says it is. So that’s not a judgment on whether we have the optimal amount of spending—we can argue about things that should be cut or expanded—but those are the numbers; those are the facts.

Krugman: One of the things that strikes me about this is that often if we’re trying to understand what it would take to be able to pay for even what we have, that we would have to have something like European levels of taxation or something radically different. And actually, all we really need for that is Clinton-era levels of taxation.

Bernstein: Precisely right. Yeah, in fact, under the Clinton regime was the last time we had an annual surplus, so the debt-to-GDP was starting to come down, which is what happens when you have a surplus. Now, a lot of that had to do with a big bump in capital gains, and that led to more revenue flows. But that’s precisely the channel that I think we’ve shut down with this endless ratcheting down of tax policy.

Krugman: Yeah, it’s an amazing thing. And you and I both remember the nineties, and I didn’t feel that we were living in a regime of oppressive taxation that was stifling entrepreneurship. Those were the roaring nineties.

Bernstein: No question. The extent to which the political class, particularly Republicans, has convinced so many people and so many media writers that taxes are always bad and must always be cut is one of the reasons we’re in this mess.

Krugman: Okay. Now, clearly the deficit is so big because of, again, another round of tax cuts and the legacy of the past tax cuts. But also, the arithmetic of debt used to basically kind of melt away relative to GDP because of growth exceeding the interest rate, and that’s not the case anymore. Although the gap is not that large even now, right? It’s sort of like a four percent average interest rate on federal debt and maybe three percent nominal growth, three to three and a half. But still, it’s very different now. But the thing that is really striking is that interest rates are way higher than they were not very long ago, especially, of course, at the long end. So I’m actually not fully sure myself what I think is happening, but why do you think interest rates have gone up so much?

Bernstein: You know that old movie—I think it’s called Murder on the Orient Express—where it turned out, spoiler alert, that they were looking for one perp, but there were like 17 perps?

Krugman: Yeah.

Bernstein: I think there’s a bunch of reasons. To me, it seems credible and plausible, so I don’t feel particularly confused about what I’m seeing, though I may be missing something, but I would put at the top of the list that there are two very large demanders of credit right now in both the US and other economies as well. Those are the AI build-out and all the picks and shovels therein. Those folks are now leveraged, meaning they’re borrowing somewhere between six, seven hundred billion and a trillion this year.

Krugman: Right.

Bernstein: I’ve seen plausible estimates that they’re going to borrow a trillion dollars. By the way, a lot of those AI companies used to invest using cash flow. They weren’t leveraging; now they’re borrowing. And they’re borrowing hand over fist. A lot of investors are confident about those returns. I personally think it’s kind of bubbly, but they’re confident about those returns, so they’re certainly buying that debt.

The other big competitor is the US government, and I just mentioned maybe the AI bros will borrow a trillion this year. Well, we know that the US government’s gonna borrow twice that, a little bit north of two trillion. That’s thing one.

Cause number two, is the Trump-induced inflation concerns. So look, if you think that inflation is going to be high and sticky and you’re about to lock up some of your money for a while in a bond, you might want an inflation premium. You might want a little bit more compensation on that interest rate to account for the fact that this is all a nominal deal, and so you want to be compensated for higher expected inflation.

Then there’s the fact that Kevin Warsh has gotten off to a bit of a shaky start, and I think that’s spooking markets a bit, and that kind of uncertainty also calls for a higher risk or term premium.

And then there’s the fact that the country’s being run by an orange maniac. I think that is kind of a long-term risk premium that any investor is concerned about. Some foreign investors, who have often bought a lot of our debt, are saying, “Huh, maybe not so fast given the way this country is governed right now.” So if you put those all together, to me they tell a pretty compelling story.

Krugman: Okay. I think I mostly agree with that, except I have a couple of questions. One is that this is global, right? Interest rates are up all around the advanced world. They’re more or less moving on parallel tracks in Germany, with their famous, slightly insane fiscal discipline, and in Japan, where we used to say nothing ever seemed to matter. I mean, the AI boom is mostly here, and the orange maniac is only here. He would like to be elsewhere, but he’s only here right now. So—

Bernstein: I think he spills over into some other places, but yes.

Krugman: Yeah. So, is there kind of a common story?

Bernstein: I mean, it’s a great question, and I should have said: I don’t think anybody can explain 100% of this variance, but my R2 gets up there pretty good, I guess. I think the problem is that the fiscal accounts of other countries are looking a little bit more like ours than they used to, and that they also seem to be facing a borrowing crunch.

Japan, as you just mentioned, would make our debt-to-GDP ratio look very, very tame, because of course they’ve been north of 200%. And for years, nobody really thought that was too big a problem. But I guess because of some of the global risks—you know, we have geopolitical dynamics; when energy is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, that is a much bigger deal for Europe, for Japan, for China than it is for us. And so I would argue that the combination of geopolitical tensions and unbalanced fiscal accounts is probably pushing up long rates in other countries as well. But there’s probably more to it.

Krugman: We have a couple of financial indicators that are supposed to capture some of these risks. There’s breakevens, right?

Bernstein: Yeah.

Krugman: The US government sells bonds that are supposedly protected against inflation, and the spread between those and regular bonds should give you an indication of what Mr. Market thinks is going to happen to inflation. And that really isn’t showing anything, right?

Bernstein: Right.

Krugman: And then there are credit default swaps; insurance that will pay out if a company defaults. And there are credit default swaps on the United States government, although I always wonder a little bit what good any contract is if the US government goes into default. But anyway, those are just not flashing red at all.

Bernstein: Yeah, I can speak to that. There’s a couple of points here, one of which I think is very important that you made in your post this morning, and I’ve been trying to stress as well. I really want to make sure we get into it, which I will here.

The first point is that a second ago I said there’s an inflation premium in some of these bonds, meaning that credit investors want to have a slightly higher return because they’re worried about expected inflation. I think that’s a pretty small part of the puzzle; I think it’s more on short-term than on long-term loans. And this is clear if you look at where you really see the increase—for example, the 30-year bond is in the inflation-protected version, and that tells you that it’s not just inflation; it’s making the breakeven point a different way. And that tells you that there’s some nervousness about the long-term prospects of the US project.

The important thing that I wanted to nail here is that I think of this as much more of a slow burn than something that’s going to explode this week or next week. I don’t think the US is going to have a Liz Truss moment. I’m referring to the case in the UK where creditors engaged in what’s called a sudden stop: they looked at her fiscal plan and said, “That’s it, we’re out. We’re not going to invest in that country anymore.” I don’t think that happens here, for a variety of reasons that you and I can tick through.

But that doesn’t mean that everything’s fine and happy-dappy or we’re out of the woods. It’s more of a slow burn, this upward pressure on rates, which folds into affordability—mortgage, auto, credit card loans, and so on—that is a problem for American households and consumers. And that is less of a “what’s inflation going to be next week” story and more of a “higher for longer” problem, where rates look to me and to many others like they’re going to stay up for a while because these problems are structural.

Krugman: Yeah. There’s a lot of crisis talk, as there was, by the way, back in 2010 when there was really no problem at all. And my problem with that has always been: explain to me how that happens. You say people will go on a buyers’ strike and try to sell all of their US government debt, and my question is always, “And buy what?” I mean, it’s not like there’s an obvious place. Even for Britain, the Liz Truss moment was much more limited than people claim. And for the US as a whole, it’s not like Greece, where people were demanding euros and the Greeks couldn’t print euros. As someone said, it’s that we should be thinking about termites, not a tornado.

Bernstein: Yeah, and here’s why I think this is so important, and you and I have both been circling around this point: It’s very important for human welfare—not just American, but for human welfare—that the current thugs running the government be banished and held accountable. I’m sorry if that sounds partisan, but I don’t think it is.

And for that to happen, I don’t think candidates can run on—I remember the John Kasich platform, which is, “Vote for me and I’ll lower the debt and the deficit. We’ll all eat our spinach.” And I think that’s a mistake. I think it’s a mistake politically, and I think it’s a mistake economically. As you wrote this morning, don’t panic. I agree with that. This is a structural problem that’s not going away anytime soon, but we can chip away at it by reversing some of the high-end tax cuts, which I think would be both progressive and send a signal to markets and investors that we’re actually back in the business of having a reaction function to our unsustainable path.

But first and foremost, we have to meet the very basic, urgent needs of households that have been left behind for too long: health care, child care, housing, energy costs. That, to me, is the first demand on fiscal policy. And so I think the fact that neither you nor I see a pending sudden stop or credit crisis—we could be wrong about that, in which case we’ll have to reconfigure—but based on history, I think we still have time to get this right, and we should do both. We should walk and chew gum.

Krugman: Okay. At the risk of delaying a moment until we get to what to do, there’s one thing that kinda bothers me intellectually: during the era of low interest rates, we had a really good story—secular stagnation—basically that largely because of low birth rates and a stagnant working-age population, there was just going to be lots of savings and not enough places to spend it on. And that’s kind of what we thought had happened to Japan. And now here we are.

Just six years ago, I would have been a full-on secular stagnation guy, and now we have, whatever it is, 5.3% interest rates on the 30-year. Were we all wrong about that, or did something really radically change?

Bernstein: I think that we were over-torquing or over-indexing a bit on a period where interest rates were uniquely low, and we built a big story about secular stagnation that I sort of believed at the time. But I look back now and I think that perhaps that wasn’t as believable as we thought.

I think what might have been happening instead was we just had what Ben Bernanke called a global savings glut. We had excess savings, and there are a lot of reasons for that; it doesn’t have to be a lack of investment opportunities. A lot of it had to do with international imbalances, which you’ve written a lot about. And so these excess savings found their ways into U.S. Treasuries because it was the safest debt you could buy, and the U.S. looked like a going concern, so a lot of those resources flowed here. And that glut of savings, often coming out of Asian trade surpluses, led to rates that were really quite depressed for a long time. But as those dynamics changed, I think the savings glut is in the rearview mirror and the dynamics are more like those we’re talking about today.

Krugman: Yeah. If I can say, one intellectual trap that I fall into far more often than I should is the lure of a beautiful model that seems to fit the facts for a while. The secular stagnation model was lovely, and it all fit together, and there were the low interest rates. And then all of a sudden, it wasn’t really that solidly grounded. But the fact that a model seems to work for a while doesn’t necessarily mean—

Bernstein: Well, it may have been the right model for the time. And look, you’ve made a career and won a Nobel Prize for beautiful models, so I wouldn’t—I don’t want to wave you off of that.

But I think there’s another dynamic to this—see if this resonates with you. One of the foundational principles behind secular stagnation is the idea that there’s more savings than there are credible investments, or places to put it; there’s just an absence of investment.

Krugman: Right.

Bernstein: And by the way, when Larry Summers raised this issue of secular stagnation, Ben Bernanke stood up at the IMF conference and said, “Wait a second, there’s lots of places to invest.” I’m not sure that was exactly right at the time, but it sure is not the case now, right? And that’s the AI boom.

There’s this tremendous investment opportunity going on now. Again, I think those guys are over their skis because there’s so much more investment than there is profitability right now that I have bubble worries, and Ryan Cummings and I have written numerous pieces on this. But secular stagnation, or the absence of investment to absorb the excess savings, may have been a fact for a few years there, but as this new technology came along, as is often the case, you now have an investment absorption mechanism.

Krugman: Right. And it’s probably worth saying, just going back, that it’s not just that the hyperscalers are borrowing money when they used to not have to, but also presumably before, all of these huge profits being generated off our social media addiction were effectively being parked in places where they could then be lent out. And now, instead of pouring water into that pool, they’re drawing water out of it, and that adds to this pressure.

Okay, big question: hopefully January 20th, 2029, President—name your favorite—with majorities in both houses comes in. And aside from needing to go after all of the legacy of corruption and all of that, they’re going to come in during what looks like it’s going to be a less forgiving financial environment than we might have hoped. What do you do? What’s your agenda for how we address all this?

Bernstein: Well, first of all, from your lips to God’s ears, as we used to say. If we find ourselves in that situation, I will be partying in the streets and not worrying about the interest rate, at least for a few days.

I’m sure you’re right, and it’s an important question and an important framing of the question. I think there’s a path forward, though. First of all, we should definitely hold the Trumpies accountable and in a big way. I’ve written about that, and I think we have to Trump-proof our government because other authoritarians will come along. But if that’s all we do, we’re falling short. We really have to attack with the affordability agenda. And there, I think we should look at not just Mamdani and some of the others on the left who are making delivering the absolute key plank of their political project, but so is Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill from the center. So it’s not just a left-center thing; it’s just about rejecting the status quo and delivering to American households who’ve been not just abandoned, but abused for so long, especially under this administration.

And in terms of the context of what we’re talking about now, how do you do that if you’re in a high-rate environment and you have this budget outlook? Well, we have to reverse the high-end tax cuts. We have to close investment loopholes. We have to close the tax gap. We have to fund the IRS enforcement mechanism, because for every dollar you invest in IRS enforcement, you collect something like nine or ten dollars in taxes that are currently being evaded almost exclusively from the top of the scale. Closing the tax gap is a project that could yield five, six, seven hundred billion per year.

Krugman: Let me, by the way, explain again for listeners: “the tax gap” is a term of art. It’s not just hand-waving; it’s speaking specifically about money that people owe that we’re not collecting because the IRS doesn’t have the resources, and it’s overwhelmingly very high-income people. So you’re saying that’s like two percent of GDP.

Bernstein: I recently heard Natasha Sarin talk about this and she used, I think, that exact figure. I’m colorblind, so I’m not sure what color it was, but the chart that Bobby Kogan and I used—I think it was green—that could get us closer back to that debt-to-GDP line that’s much more sustainable. And they rest largely on applying taxes to where income and wealth have exploded at the top of the scale, so they neither hurt middle-income people nor compromise the affordability agenda.

I don’t want to be too Pollyannaish about this: a dollar spent on childcare is a dollar that’s not available for debt reduction. But what I really don’t think we should do is say we have to come in here and clean up the Republicans’ debt mess as our first priority. Anything we do that stops digging us into a deeper fiscal hole—even if we’re digging more slowly, or even better yet, stop digging, not necessarily filling—would be, I think, not only good fiscal policy, but probably welcomed by the markets as a sign that the congressional reaction function to the fiscal outlook isn’t dead.

Krugman: I regret to inform you that the good debt scenario, if we hadn’t had all of these irresponsible tax cuts, the line is orange, which is kind of an unfortunate choice given where we are in America right now.

Bernstein: Whoops.

Krugman: But anyway, I think you may have partially answered my question. When I look at that “if we hadn’t had those tax cuts” line, that would be great. If that was where we were, then I certainly wouldn’t be worrying at all about debt. But although those tax cuts were very heavily tilted to the top, with something like thirty to forty percent going to the one percent, reversing all of them would hit a number of people who at least think of themselves as middle class. And so the question is: what is within the realm of the politically possible that we can actually do?

Bernstein: Great question. And I definitely have argued and tried to stress that the right place to start and to linger is at the top of the scale. I don’t think we should raise taxes on middle-class or middle-class-adjacent people; they’re having a hard enough time already and don’t need an extra tax burden.

But the extent to which income and wealth have accumulated at the top of the scale—I’m sure you’ve seen the factor share data showing that the labor share of national income is kind of uniquely low and the profit share is uniquely high. And so I think we have to be pretty aggressive in that regard, but we can do so without dinging the middle class.

If you listen to some budget hawks, they say we have to get back to that orange line. To be clear, I’m not saying that. I don’t think we do have to get back to the orange line. By the way, Danny Yagan has some nice papers on this, saying that we can be really gradual about getting back to some version of fiscal responsibility, but we have to move in that direction. We sort of have to change the sign, even if the magnitude is tiny.

Krugman: Yeah, I think the post-World War II story is actually kind of helpful here because people talked for a long time about, “How are we going to pay the national debt? How are we gonna pay off the war debts?” And we never did. In fact, by sometime in the sixties the debt was higher in dollar terms than it had been, but the trajectory of all of the ratios was down, and we probably don’t even have to do that steep a descent, right?

Bernstein: Yeah. Some people want to say that AI is gonna save our bacon because it’s gonna generate so much growth. In the piece with Bobby, we have a section on it, and my view is kind of like: hope for the best, plan for the worst.

Krugman: Yeah.

Bernstein: I’m kind of stuck on the fact that the internet really did eventually have a strong productivity impact, and then it went away.

Krugman: Yeah, things can go into reverse, but there was only about ten years of good growth.

Bernstein: Yeah, exactly, and then we kind of got back to where we were. So a lot of the AI productivity discussion assumes that not only will AI boost the level of productivity, but it’ll just keep getting better and better and better so that it improves the growth rate. And you know, I hope that’s true, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it.

Krugman: So, what are you hoping for in the spring of 2029 as our hypothetical virtuous government comes along?

Bernstein: I am hoping for the following: I spend a fair amount of time scratching my aging noggin with the question of how much of the damage done by the Trump regime is temporary and can be quickly repaired, or is long-term and will be with us for a while.

If a good Democrat takes over and we have some legislative power, can we restore good relationships with Canada and Europe? Or are they gonna be like, “Screw you, we’ve seen what you guys do. You’re okay, but we don’t know who the next guy’s gonna be. We might be looking at President Vance around the corner.”

So I guess what I’m hoping for and looking for is that the damage can be reversed in my lifetime, which isn’t the longest span of years. And that’s an open question.

What about you? You answer that question.

Krugman: Well, okay. When you ask me about the economics—can we restore, can we even significantly reverse the drift to oligarchy—I’m actually fairly optimistic that it’s within the realm of the doable. When it comes to our international relations, when it comes to our military credibility, I don’t know. I think we’re talking about a generations-long project, and that really upsets me quite a lot.

At some level, you know, I talk about Iran or something like that and I say, “Okay, this is Trump’s failure and we should wrap it around his neck.” But in the end, it’s my country, too. And my God, we are not the country we were in the eyes of the world, and I don’t know when we ever will be again.

Bernstein: I agree with you, Paul, and I share that worry. I’ll only say the following: it may be a generational project, but if it is, it’s a great generational project, and generations should be anxious to undertake it.

Krugman: Well, on that happy note, thanks so much for talking to me.

Quoting Linus Torvalds

And this was a debug session from hell, enormously helped by an AI doing much of the grunt-work.

I'd like to call it my tireless helper, but the AI several times stated flat out that this was impossible and unsolvable and that we should just write a report about it.

I suspect those things have been trained by people who may not be quite as stubborn as I am.

But while the AI was ready to give up several times, it did keep adding debug code and analyzing it faithfully when I pushed. So credit where credit is due and I let the AI write the commit message above.

Linus Torvalds, drm/xe: Don't hand out the flat CCS storage as usable VRAM

Tags: linus-torvalds, linux, generative-ai, ai-assisted-programming, ai, llms

llm 0.33

Release: llm 0.33

My highlights from this release:

  • Upgraded to the OpenAI Python library 3.x and switched the HTTP client dependency from httpx to httpx2. #1608, #1631

I shipped a quick 0.32.1 fix for this yesterday, but this is the more comprehensive fix.

  • llm embed and llm embed-multi now accept --key. The Python EmbeddingModel.embed(), EmbeddingModel.embed_multi(), Collection.embed() and Collection.embed_multi() methods accept key= too, passing the resolved per-call key to embedding plugins without changing shared model state. Existing plugins that read self.key continue to work through a compatibility fallback. Thanks, ChrisJr404. #757, #1620

The embedding models now use the same pattern for keys that regular LLM models do.

  • llm prompt -t/--template can now be repeated to combine templates in order. This allows model configuration and options from one template to be used with a prompt from another.

This unlocks a neat pattern where you can create templates that package a model with a set of default options:

llm -m gpt-5.6-luna -o reasoning_effort high --save lhigh
llm "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle" --save pelican
# Combine and run the templates
llm -t lhigh -t pelican
  • Reasoning-capable Responses API models now support a reasoning_summary option with auto, concise, and detailed values. This can be used with llm openai endpoint --responses. #1600

This is particularly useful for exercising different models that provide their own imitation of the OpenAI Responses API.

Tags: annotated-release-notes, llm

More than just code review

The key skill required to make productive use of coding agents is being able to confidently instruct them on how to make changes and then confidently verify that those changes have been applied in the correct way.

Sometimes this involves reviewing every line of code they have written, but there are other ways to achieve that goal. Eyeballing every line of code has never been the most effective way to validate a change to a piece of software.

Tags: code-review, coding-agents, generative-ai, agentic-engineering, ai, llms

Saturday 22 August 1663

Up by four o’clock to go with Sir W. Batten to Woolwich and Sir J. Minnes, which we did, though not before 6 or 7 by their laying a-bed. Our business was to survey the new wharf building there, in order to the giving more to him that do it (Mr. Randall) than contracted for, but I see no reason for it, though it be well done, yet no better than contracted to be.

Here we eat and drank at the Clerke of the Cheques, and in taking water at the Tower gate, we drank a cup of strong water, which I did out of pure conscience to my health, and I think is not excepted by my oaths, but it is a thing I shall not do again, hoping to have no such occasion. After breakfast Mr. Castle and I walked to Greenwich, and in our way met some gypsys, who would needs tell me my fortune, and I suffered one of them, who told me many things common as others do, but bade me beware of a John and a Thomas, for they did seek to do me hurt, and that somebody should be with me this day se’nnight to borrow money of me, but I should lend him none. She got ninepence of me. And so I left them and to Greenwich and so to Deptford, where the two knights were come, and thence home by water, where I find my closet done at my office to my mind and work gone well on at home; and Ashwell gone abroad to her father, my wife having spoken plainly to her. After dinner to my office, getting my closet made clean and setting some papers in order, and so in the evening home and to bed.

This day Sir W. Batten tells me that Mr. Newburne (of whom the nickname came up among us forarse Tom Newburne) is dead of eating cowcumbers, of which, the other day, I heard another, I think Sir Nicholas Crisp’s son.

Read the annotations

Links 8/22/26

Links for you. Science:

The CDC has zombie programs. Congress funds them, but few people are left to do the work
Ticks that cause Lyme and other diseases have migrated south. Are doctors ready?
The Super El Niño Won’t Fix the West’s Water Crisis (will Trump take on Big Ag?)
GTX-GUT: A Standardized Metagenomic Workflow for Gut Microbiome Profiling and Clinical Associations
How Cyclospora Evaded the U.S. Food Safety System to Sicken Thousands
HHS’s new strategic plan for autism prioritizes interventions offered at authors’ own clinics
How the National Science Foundation is Closing the Door on Opportunity in Science

Other:

This Is How Democrats Talk Themselves Out Of Wielding Power
The Left Is Building Power. That’s Why Dems Are Slamming “Woke 1.0.” A series of electoral victories by democratic socialists and their allies is posing a challenge to establishment Democrats, and ​they’d rather attack rhetoric than debate policy. (the Trump administration is the most openly racist administration since Woodrow Wilson, and Donald Trump is an adjudicated rapist. “Woke 1.0” clearly didn’t go far enough)
Colorado Was Targeted as Trump Fumed Over Election Denier, Email Shows (impeach him. Impeach him now)
DOJ slams D.C. Council for calling for National Guard withdrawal. A Justice Department official accused council members of “ignorance” and “impotent theatrics” over their request for governors to remove their troops from D.C. (impeachment shouldn’t be just for high officials. Impeach Colin M. McDonald. Impeach him now)
Colorado GOP Gov Nominee Claims to Have Battled ‘Demons’ With ‘Reptilian’ Eyes
Disney runs out of patience with Brendan Carr’s bullsh*t
Navy weighs renaming carrier slated to honor Black war hero, potentially switching it to Trump
Facebook Is Drowning In Islamophobic AI Slop Calling for Violence Against Muslim Americans
The ‘vibe shift’ was a leveraged buyout
I Aspired To Get My PhD At Cambridge – I Left Because Of The Racism
The Painful Truth of Exactly How ICE’s New Shock Gloves Work
NC Board of Elections votes along party lines to reject most Sunday early voting hours (if voting doesn’t matter, the fascists still seem awful concerned about people voting)
Who Is a Jew? California Considers a Small Box With Big Implications.
ICE’s New Electric Shock Gloves Are Billed As “Low Optics” Tool
Silicon Valley Executives Are Tech Fans. Just Not for Their Own Kids.
Trump bought as much as $5 million in Axon stock before ICE sought $220 million Taser deal
Matt Dunlap’s campaign is openly attacking Paul LePage’s age
Ken Paxton Was Double-Booked With an Emo Band at a Houston Venue. Things Got Weird.
How the A.I. Borrowing Binge Helps Drive Up Government Bond Yields
He Cursed at a Public Meeting. Then He Was Arrested.
What Do Students Lose When They Stop Writing? Educators are worried that many students can no longer write essays without A.I. And it’s costing more than just grammar skills.
He Co-Founded Airbnb. Now He’s a Red-Pilled Billionaire Helping Trump
Gossipy Academics Helped Kill Jason Arday
Journalists as Trump’s ‘human shields’ should be the WHCA’s last straw
DHS Exempted Itself from Normal Law for Undercover Investigation Into Protesters
Subtlefakes: Slightly Altered Nonconsensual AI Images Are Taking Over X
DC celebrates 250 years with a historically poignant mural for each city ward
How close is Donald Trump to the “crazification” line? (the original crazification post here)
The broken promise of D.C.’s Commission on Poverty
Drivers would take pay cut to avoid Northern Virginia commutes

Has the European turnaround finally arrived?

Europe just had its best reporting season in years. Companies in the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index boosted earnings per share by 18% on average in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Earnings barely grew at all in 2025 and 2024 as the strongest companies in the index were offset by weaker players.

Growth is now widening beyond a narrow group of AI and bank stocks, according to Gerry Fowler, who leads the European equity strategy team at UBS. Government spending and private investment in priorities like infrastructure, energy security and defense are creating real opportunities.

The Stoxx Europe 600 is up 10% so far this year, a bit less than the S&P 500’s 12% gain. European stocks have underperformed the U.S. since the mid-2000s, but the gap has narrowed lately.

Here is more from the WSJ.

The post Has the European turnaround finally arrived? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

The Best Gospel Music Happening Right Now

I’m trying to find time to write about niche genres that don’t get much notice from the music media. Many of these are flourishing creatively, but without any attention from pop culture elites.

So if you’re waiting until you read about these artists in Rolling Stone or Billboard, you will be waiting a long, long time. But The Honest Broker goes where others fear to tread. In that spirit, let me share some of the best gospel music happening right now.

Happy (and sanctified) listening!


Please support my work by taking out a premium subscription—just $6 per month.

Subscribe now


Listening to this first track is like getting into a time machine and traveling back a hundred years. You arrive on the outskirts of town, circa 1926, where a revival meeting is in progress.

At least that’s what I felt hearing (and seeing) the Brandenberger Family. If you love those old records by the Carter Family, but feared that style of singing had disappeared, this is the band for you.

(Full disclosure: This family also plays killer bluegrass.)


Jelly Roll has covered a lot of ground in his career, both musically and psychically. He often gets labeled as a country or rap performer, but when he recently went to San Quentin Rehabilitation Center to perform for inmates, the proceedings felt more like a ministry than a concert.

The music is riveting—this is one of the most intense and rewarding videos you will see this year. I note that Jelly Roll spent time behind bars himself. That comes across in his powerful connection with the inmates.


Please support The Honest Broker by taking out a premium subscription (just $6 per month).

Subscribe now


Next up is Pastor Brady L. Blade, Sr.. I didn’t know anything about him, until he released his debut album at the ripe age of 85. But I’ve long admired his son Brian, who is one of the greatest living jazz drummers. There’s deep musical talent encoded in that Blade DNA.

Read more

Dutch Regulator Fines Uber $1 Billion for Suspending Dishonest Drivers

Toby Sterling, reporting for Reuters:

The Dutch Data Protection Authority has fined Uber €825 million ($966 million) for deactivating driver accounts through automated systems without adequately informing them, according to an August 17 decision reviewed by Reuters.

The penalty would be the second-largest issued yet under Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation. It is behind only a €1.2 billion fine imposed on Meta by Ireland in 2023 for unlawfully transferring European ​Facebook users’ data to the United States. Meta is appealing.

Uber said it would also appeal. [...]

The Dutch authority confirmed the decision later on Friday. “Uber has committed ​serious infringements,” in deactivating driver accounts without warning or human involvement, the organisation’s deputy chair Monique Verdier said in a statement. “From one moment ​to the next they no longer had any income ... A computer should not make decisions on its own that have (such) major consequences.”

Saying that “a computer” made these decisions is like saying that when a company suspends or fires a habitually late employee, that “the time clock” made the decision. Managers at the company set the policies, and the devices measure employee compliance. Verdier’s statement is talking about this like it’s HAL 9000 deciding to kill the astronauts on the Discovery.

GDPR rules ban decisions made solely by computer algorithms when they have a significant impact on people’s lives, saying such decisions require meaningful human review and a way to challenge a decision.

Uber temporarily suspended accounts of some drivers who ​were suspected of fraud, including ​when its systems concluded drivers had taken unnecessary detours to inflate fares or accepted trips without intending to complete them. Uber said such suspensions were usually brief, and it did not permanently deactivate such accounts without human review. Drivers with low ​customer ratings were sometimes permanently deactivated by computer, the Dutch agency said. Uber disputed that, saying ​it had never automated permanent deactivation decisions.

The company said one reason it considers the fine disproportionate is that only a small number of drivers were affected, with 126 having been deactivated in Europe as a result of low customer ratings in 2021.

It’s possible that Reuters’s reporting is incomplete, but there’s no allegation here that the grounds for these suspensions were incorrect. Uber suspended drivers who were pulling long-haul scams against customers to run up fare prices, and doing the annoying thing where they accept a ride and then never show up, hoping the customer will eventually get frustrated and cancel the trip themselves. (My understanding is that drivers do this when they’re driving for, say, both Uber and Lyft. They’ll accept a ride from Uber and then if a more appealing offer comes from Lyft, they’ll accept that one too and just never pick up the customer they accepted from Uber.)

Per this fine, it’s unlawful in the EU for Uber to monitor its drivers for pulling scams against customers, or just never picking riders up, leaving them stranded. I mean, I’m not a member of the “Uber Labor Practices” fan club, but one of the best things about Uber compared to taxis is that they monitor for and take action against scam drivers.

This isn’t a two-sided conflict between employees (drivers) and a big corporation (Uber). It’s three-sided. Where does customer experience factor into this? The drivers were scamming customers, and Uber took action to stop it. This sounds to me like a system that works. The EU regulation doesn’t seem to factor in customers at all.

 ★ 

The Fourth Horseman of the File-Format-Hegemony Apocalypse

Microsoft’s iPhone app for OneDrive has long supported creating three new document types via a big “+” button right in its file viewer: Excel, Word, PowerPoint. It recently came to my attention that they’ve added a fourth document type, and they even gave it real Microsoft-style “they just have no taste” file icon. Just look at it. The whole world’s coming to an end, Mallory.

 ★ 

Mark Carney on the U.S. Under Trump: ‘Sometimes, Its Signature Is Written in Pencil’

Ian Austen, reporting for The New York Times (gift link):

The morning after he pulled negotiators from trade talks in Washington and set off a new round of American tariffs, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Saturday explained to Canadians why he walked away, calling the U.S. proposal “a bad deal.”

“We’ve recognized from the start that America has changed,” Mr. Carney said. “We recognize that sometimes, its signature is written in pencil.”

“We cannot accept what they offered and we will not give what they asked,” he added. “We were not prepared to compromise Canada’s sovereignty or undermine our key industries.”

If only Sharpie made pencils.

Carney is rising to the moment and showing the rest of the world how to deal with the Trump administration. Trump is erratic, emotionally unstable, ignorant, and dishonest. Carney is consistent, steadfast, knowledgeable, and honest. The only correct way to deal with a con man is to cut him off and call him out for what he is.

 ★ 

Saturday assorted links

1. New publication analyzing AI constitutions.

2. Niall Ferguson vs. Iain Banks, and against some other stufff too (TFP).

3. NYT obituary for Victor Niederhoffer.

4. “Engineered systems known as harnesses largely complete contracts in real time, make external work more observable than employment, and carry context and control across the firm’s edge.” (speculative)

5. Flypaper effect for AI safety work? A bit unfair, but not altogether wrong either.  Always ponder the possible secondary consequences!

6. Amended results on prediction markets.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

Reading List 08/22/26

View of Haarlem with Bleaching Grounds, by Jacob van Ruisdael, via WikiArt.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at Los Angeles’ ADUs, electrical transformer manufacturing, gas turbine power plants, how water in the Colorado River is used, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

No essay this week, but I have a very long piece in American Affairs about why US transit construction costs are so high. You can read it here.

Housing and Cities

Los Angeles built over 10,000 ADUs in 2025, 37% of all housing units built in the county. [Smart Cities Dive]

There were 511 state bills introduced in 2025 across 40 states that pre-empted county land use authority in some way, 27% of which passed. A lot of land use restrictions are downstream of the local nature of land use authority — costs of development tend to be concentrated, and benefits tend to be diffuse, so local authorities are often incentivized to restrict development. State-level pre-emption should in theory help with this. [Smart Cities Dive]

Mexico plans on making it much harder to illicitly develop along the coast, and to tear down any illegal buildings that exist. “For years, wealthy developers have treated environmental fines as simply another line item in their budgets—a minor inconvenience easily absorbed by their profit margins. Tamborrel acknowledged this problem directly: “There are companies that allocate part of their budget to pay these fines and then continue operating; offenders prefer to pay the fine rather than request a permit.” But those days appear to be ending. Profepa has already closed four real estate developments in Puerto Vallarta and promises similar action along all of Mexico’s coastal states.” [Yucatan Magazine]

Claims (with video) that Amazon’s drone delivery service dropped a package in someone’s pool. [X]

The city of Mesa, Arizona is planning to sue several firetruck manufacturers, claiming that they’re colluding to drive up prices. [Mesa Tribune]

Manufacturing

Raytheon gets a $23 billion Navy contract for Tomahawk missiles. [Manufacturing Dive]

The New York Times has a photo essay on the laborious process of electrical transformer manufacturing. It’s not amazingly clear to me why this process isn’t more automated, and whether that would help to get them built faster or if the bottleneck lies elsewhere. [NYT]

1872 is a startup founded by several former SpaceX employees that wants to build highly automated factories for making steel parts. “The company is initially focused on automating the manufacturing of steel skids—rectangular steel frames that can provide a moveable foundation for modular buildings—with the goal of supplying customers who are developing AI data centers or small modular nuclear reactors.” [Ars Technica]

Energy

There are currently 270 GW of natural gas power plants in various stages of development in the US. This is roughly equal to 20% of all current US generation capacity. [X]

FERC approves a Southwest Power Pool (a regional transmission operator) plan to reduce grid congestion by “topology optimization” — responding to congestion by rerouting how power flows through the grid, rather than redispatching power plants. MISO, another regional transmission operator, already has such a program, and estimates that it has saved them almost $100 million so far this year. [Utility Dive]

The DOE cancels three planned National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors, designations designed to make it easier to build transmission projects. The DOE stated that transmission policy “must serve the American people, not special interests or a climate-alarmist agenda.” [Utility Dive]

Read more

Martin Dufwenberg is celebrated at Purdue

 Purdue recognizes Martin Dufwenberg as a distinguished professor. (Here's his Google Scholar page.)

Here's the Purdue announcement:

Trustees approve named professorships and deanships, distinguished professors, appointment of new athletics director, resolutions of appreciation and namings 

 "Dufwenberg joined the faculty at Purdue in 2025 as a professor of economics. His research uses game theory and experiments to incorporate insights from psychology into economic analysis. Much of his work develops and applies a formal framework called psychological game theory, which is useful for modeling emotions, reciprocity, social norms and image concerns. His publications have appeared in many scientific outlets, including Econometrica, American Economic Review, Neuron, The Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Economic Theory, Games and Economic Behavior, and more. Dufwenberg currently serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of the Economic Science Association and Experimental Economics. His honors and awards include being named an Economic Theory Fellow as well as receiving an honorary doctorate at the University of Gothenburg, the Erik Malmsten Visiting Professorship Award, the Royal Economic Society Prize and more. "

The End of Friday Nights with Friends

This study examines how Americans’ time with friends has changed over the week, focusing not on how much social interaction has declined but on when it has. Using American Time Use Survey data from 2003 to 2024 (N = 243,095), I map hourly patterns of “friend time” across the days of the week. In the early 2000s, social life followed a clear weekly rhythm: Modest weekday interaction built toward pronounced peaks on Friday and Saturday nights. Since the mid-2010s, that rhythm has collapsed. Friday night, once a central site of social activity, now looks like a typical weeknight. Saturday remains elevated but less so than before. Overall, time with friends has fallen by more than half. The mix of social activities, however, has remained stable. Americans have not replaced one form of interaction with another; they have reduced social interaction across the board. These findings point to a temporal reorganization of social life marked by the disappearance of the “night out.”

That is by Neal Caren, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.  So what did you go last evening?

The post The End of Friday Nights with Friends appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

Related Stories

 

August 21, 2026

On August 21, 1831, Nat Turner, an enslaved American, led about 70 of his enslaved and free Black neighbors in a rebellion to awaken his white neighbors to the inherent brutality of slaveholding and the dangers it presented to their own safety. Turner and his friends traveled from house to house in their neighborhood in Southampton County, Virginia, freeing enslaved people and murdering about 60 of the white men, women, and children they encountered. Their goal, Turner later told an interviewer, was “to carry terror and devastation wherever we went.”

State militia put down the rebellion in a couple of days, and both the legal system and white vigilantes killed at least 200 Black Virginians, many of whom were not involved in Turner’s bid to end enslavement. Turner himself was captured in October, tried in November, sentenced to death, and hanged.

But white Virginians, and white folks in neighboring southern states, remained frightened. Turner had been, in their minds, a well-treated, educated enslaved man, who knew his Bible well and seemed the very last sort of person they would have expected to revolt. And so they responded to the rebellion in two ways. They turned against the idea that enslavement was a bad thing, and instead began to argue that human enslavement was a positive good.

And states across the South passed laws making it a crime to teach enslaved Americans to read and write.

Denying enslaved Black Americans access to education exiled them from a place in the nation. The Framers had quite explicitly organized the United States not on the principles of religion or tradition, but rather on the principles of the Enlightenment: the idea that, by applying knowledge and reasoning to the natural world, men could figure out the best way to order society. Someone excluded from access to education could not participate in that national project. Instead, that person was read out of society, doomed to be controlled by leaders who marshaled religion and propaganda to defend their dominance.

In 1858, Senator James Henry Hammond of South Carolina explained that society needed “a class to do the menial duties, to perform the drudgery of life. That is, a class requiring but a low order of intellect and but little skill.”

But when they organized in the 1850s to push back against the efforts of elite enslavers like Hammond to take over the national government, members of the fledgling Republican Party recognized the importance of education. In 1859, Illinois lawyer Abraham Lincoln explained that those who adhered to Hammond’s “mud-sill” theory “assumed that labor and education are incompatible; and any practical combination of them impossible…. According to that theory, the education of laborers, is not only useless, but pernicious, and dangerous.”

Lincoln argued that workers were not simply drudges but rather were the heart of the economy. “The prudent, penniless beginner in the world, labors for wages awhile, saves a surplus with which to buy tools or land, for himself; then labors on his own account another while, and at length hires another new beginner to help him.” He tied the political vision of the Framers to this economic vision. In order to prosper, he argued, men needed “book-learning,” and he called for universal education. An educated community, he said, “will be alike independent of crowned-kings, money-kings, and land-kings.”

When they were in control of the federal government in the 1860s, Republicans passed the Land Grant College Act, funding public universities so that men without wealthy fathers might have access to higher education. In the aftermath of the Civil War, Republicans also tried to use the federal government to fund public schools for poor Black and white Americans, apportioning money according to illiteracy rates.

But President Andrew Johnson vetoed that bill on the grounds that the federal government had no business messing with education: that process, he said, belonged to the states—which for the next century denied Black people equal access to schools, excluding them from full participation in American society and condemning them to menial labor.

Then, in 1954, after decades of pressure from Black and Brown Americans for equal access to public schools, the Supreme Court under Chief Justice Earl Warren, a former Republican governor of California, unanimously agreed that separate schools were inherently unequal and thus unconstitutional.

Immediately, white southerners lawmakers launched a campaign of what they called “massive resistance” to integration. Some Virginia counties closed their public schools. Others took funds from integrated public schools and used a grant system to redistribute those funds to segregated private schools.

Within years, these segregation academies would dovetail neatly with the religious schools organized after the 1962 Engel v. Vitale decision in which the Supreme Court struck down state-mandated prayer in public schools, and the 1963 Abington School District v. Schempp decision prohibiting teachers from leading students in prayer and Bible reading. The Supreme Court decisions against prayer in schools reinforced the idea that the government opposed “family values,” and fundamentalists pulled their children out of public schools and created alternative religious schools. Fundamentalist leader Jerry Falwell began to suggest that public schools should be abolished entirely.

Both of these developments provided constituents for Ronald Reagan’s rise to political power with a message that public employees had gotten too powerful and that public enterprises should be privatized.

After Reagan’s election, his secretary of education commissioned a study of the nation’s public schools, starting with the conviction that there was a “widespread public perception that something is seriously remiss in our educational system.” The resulting report, titled “A Nation at Risk,” announced: “the educational foundations of our society are presently being eroded by a rising tide of mediocrity that threatens our very future as a Nation and a people.”

Although a later study commissioned in 1990 by the secretary of energy found the data in the original report did not support the report’s conclusions, Reagan nonetheless used it to justify school privatization. He vowed after the report’s release that he would “continue to work in the months ahead for passage of tuition tax credits, vouchers, educational savings accounts, voluntary school prayer, and abolishing the Department of Education. Our agenda is to restore quality to education by increasing competition and by strengthening parental choice and local control.”

The drive to push tax dollars from public schools to private academies through a voucher system remained a top priority for those on the right. In his first term, Trump asked Congress to fund “school choice for disadvantaged youth, including millions of African-American and Latino children. These families should be free to choose the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school that is right for them.” His education secretary, Betsy DeVos, was a staunch supporter of school choice and the voucher system; she and her family gave $600,000 to promote school choice ballot laws in the decade before 2017.

The coronavirus pandemic sped up the push to defund public schools as Trump pushed hard to transfer funds from the closed public schools to private schools. That push helped to change the nature of vouchers from ones targeted at students from poor families or students with special needs toward vouchers for everyone. In 2022, Arizona lawmakers passed the biggest school voucher program in the nation.

Advocates claimed that the new program would “save taxpayers thousands per student, millions statewide,” but in fact, as Eli Hager of ProPublica explained in 2024, the parents most likely to apply for subsidies already had their children in private school or were homeschooling them, using the vouchers to replace what they had been paying in the past. The state’s spending on vouchers ballooned to $886 million in 2024–2025 as families from wealthier, whiter school districts used vouchers for children who were already in private school. The costs blew a hole in the state’s budget: in 2024, Arizona faced a shortfall of $1.4 billion, forcing the state to slash spending for water infrastructure, road repair, and community colleges.

But voucher programs continued to expand, helped by DeVos’s continued promotion of vouchers after Trump left office. In 2022 a nonprofit she founded poured about $9 million—about $2.5 million of which came from DeVos and her husband—into state elections, backing nearly 200 candidates who would push school vouchers to subsidize private schools with public tax money.

In May 2025, Texas governor Greg Abbott signed into law a voucher program in Texas under which, beginning this fall, families will receive about $10,000 a year for each school-age child to spend at a private school or $2,000 for children being homeschooled. The program is capped at $1 billion in its first two years, but experts predict it will rise to almost $5 billion by 2030.

The measure had faced opposition from Democrats and also Republicans from rural districts who worried about money draining from their public schools. It passed only after national pro-voucher advocates poured money into replacing the Republican state legislators who had stood against a voucher system with pro-voucher candidates. Abbott said that one of those donations, $6 million from Republican megadonor billionaire Jeff Yass of Pennsylvania, was the “largest single donation in Texas history.”

Earlier this month, Jaden Edison and Sneha Dey of the Texas Tribune explained that a report from the state comptroller showed that of the more than 100,000 families participating in the new private school voucher program, most are white and from urban areas. Their families make less than twice the federal poverty level. About 70% were already attending private schools or being homeschooled.

Austin Democratic state senator Sarah Eckhardt said the report “proves this program is a billion-dollar handout to exclusive private schools concentrated in big cities, while public schools across the state are underfunded and closing at an alarming rate.”

In Arizona, opponents of the voucher program tried to put onto the ballot this fall a measure that would have limited eligibility for the program by income and cracked down on the misuse of funds by homeschoolers, who used voucher money for ninja warrior training centers, trampoline parks, pianos, and so on. But voucher supporters sued over the signatures on the ballot measure, and on Tuesday the Arizona Supreme Court decided in their favor, throwing the measure out of this fall’s election.

Elvia Díaz of the Arizona Mirror wrote: “Arizona school vouchers that are pulling $1 billion away from students in K–12 public schools are here to stay, whether we like it or not.” She noted that “the real challenge is a public school system left underfunded and a voucher system left unchecked.”

In 1831, southern lawmakers tried to create a white nation by making it a crime to educate Black Americans. In 2026 the intent to exclude certain Americans from participation in the Enlightenment principles that undergird the nation remains the same, only less explicit.

Notes:

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aia/part3/3h500t.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/12/in-southern-towns-segregation-academies-are-still-going-strong/266207/

https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/just-visiting/nation-risk-and-re-segregation-schools

https://progressive.org/magazine/private-school-vouchers-levin/

https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2021/05/07/tracking-the-growing-cost-to-taxpayers-of-private-school-vouchers/

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona-education/2021/08/17/arizona-gov-doug-ducey-offers-incentives-reject-mask-mandates/8169357002/

https://www.courthousenews.com/devos-family-donated-600k-school-choice-ballot-efforts/

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/12/07/504451460/school-choice-101-what-it-is-how-it-works-and-does-it-work

https://www.npr.org/2017/02/28/516717981/watch-live-trump-addresses-joint-session-of-congress

https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001297849

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/28/trump-private-schools-pandemic-451757

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/12/07/504451460/school-choice-101-what-it-is-how-it-works-and-does-it-work

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/betsy-devos-american-federation-children-private-school-rcna76307

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/01/16/greg-abbott-jeff-yass-camapaign-donation/

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/05/03/texas-school-vouchers-greg-abbott-signs/

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/03/esa-students-texas-school-vouchers-first-year/

https://www.sosaznetwork.org/2026/a-case-study-on-arizonas-universal-esa-voucher-program/

https://www.propublica.org/article/arizona-school-vouchers-budget-meltdown

https://www.abc15.com/news/local-news/investigations/arizona-empowerment-scholarships-what-304-million-bought

https://azmirror.com/2026/08/18/school-voucher-regulation-measure-prop-212-is-pushed-off-the-ballot/

https://azmirror.com/2026/08/20/arizona-voters-wont-get-to-rein-in-vouchers-dont-tell-us-they-all-love-it/

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/04/01/texas-voucher-applications-demographics/

Share

Extreme Heat Lingers; Severe Thunderstorms for Portions of the Plains and Southeast; Heavy Rainfall Threats

Trump's space transportation policy calls for new spaceport on federal land

A new national space transportation policy signed by President Donald Trump on Thursday calls for the development of more spaceports to support more than 1,000 launches and reentries per year by 2030.

The presidential memorandum replaces a 2013 policy signed by former President Barack Obama. Both policies share an emphasis on supporting the commercial space industry and underscore the importance of assured access to space. But the launch sector has changed immensely since then. There were 176 orbital launch attempts from US soil last year, nearly 10 times the number in 2013. SpaceX led the pack last year with 165 orbital launches of its Falcon 9 rocket, plus five suborbital test flights of the much larger Starship.

"By 2030, our space transportation ranges must grow to support more than 1,000 launches and reentries every year," the policy says. "The policies set forth in this memorandum will secure America's continued superiority in space."

Read full article

Comments

What should I ask Annie Lowrey?

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her.  She has a new and very interesting book coming out, namely The Time Tax: How the Government Wastes Our Time―and How to Fix It.  More generally, from Wikipedia:

Annie M. Lowrey…is an American journalist who writes on politics and economic policy for The Atlantic. Previously, Lowrey covered economic policy for The New York Times and prior to that was the Moneybox columnist for Slate. She was also a staff writer for the Washington Independent and was on the editorial staffs of Foreign Policy and The New Yorker. She is a proponent of universal basic income.

So what should I ask her?

The post What should I ask Annie Lowrey? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

Are we watching the U.S. go bankrupt?

“Gradually, then suddenly.” — The Sun Also Rises

Lots of people are worried about rising long-term interest rates. Short-term interest rates are controlled by the central bank. But the Fed doesn’t usually intervene in the market for longer-term bonds, so when these interest rates move around, it means the market is telling us something. So a lot of people were worried when the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds jumped by 6 basis points (0.06%) the other day.

Why were people scared? Well, remember that when interest rates go up, it means bond prices went down. Which means that fewer people wanted to buy U.S. government bonds. This could be a signal of several bad things:

  1. It could signal expectations of higher inflation. When future money will be worth less, bond investors demand higher interest rates today. Higher inflation also means the Fed will probably raise interest rates.

  2. It could signal a loss of confidence in the U.S. government. If people think there’s a possibility that the U.S. won’t repay its debts, they will charge a higher risk premium to hold that debt. These doubting investors are sometimes called “bond vigilantes”. Bond vigilantes could be scared by soaring U.S. debt levels and deficits, and/or by irresponsible geopolitical and economic policies from the Trump administration.

Here’s John Cochrane on the specter of the bond vigilantes:

Unsustainable fiscal policies can only go on so long. Eventually bond investors decide that the US will not in the end do the right thing after trying everything else, and default, expropriation, taxation, capital controls, or sharp inflation is on its way. They stop buying long-term bonds especially, and look to the comfort of short term bonds…For some reason there is limited demand for long-term treasury debt…

The beginning of a global sovereign debt retrenchment would show up first in a feeling of limited demand…Investors, seeing trouble demand a larger risk premium for longer term debt…Moving to short maturity structures is a classic symptom of trouble ahead.

Among the people who were scared by the rise in interest rates, apparently, were the Trump administration. Higher long-term interest rates mean higher mortgage rates,1 which make American voters mad. They also make it harder for the U.S. government to finance its enormous deficits. So Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the government was intervening in the bond market, with a program to buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This pushed up bond prices — and pushed down interest rates — for exactly one day, but then the bond markets bounced right back:2

US Treasuries fell a day after the Trump administration’s surprise decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds…The 30-year yield on Thursday rose over seven basis points to as much as 5.27%, where it was just ahead of the US Treasury Department’s announcement early Wednesday.

So are we watching the collapse of confidence in the U.S. government? Is this the beginning of bankruptcy for Uncle Sam? Probably not yet. The underlying trends of excessive borrowing and boneheaded policies do bear keeping an eye on, and collapses of investor confidence can happen fast once they begin. But it’s unlikely that a true sovereign debt crisis has begun.

How much are interest rates actually up by?

One reason I’m not terrified by the rise in long-term rates is that it’s not actually that big of a rise!

In stories about rising rates, you see a lot of charts about how it’s a global phenomenon:

Source: Bloomberg

This has interesting implications, but first, notice that except for Japan, most of the rise was actually in 2021-2023. So whatever happened to make bond investors demand higher rates, most of it happened years ago.

Here’s just the U.S., zoomed out to cover the last decade:

Long-term rates fell in 2019 and bottomed out during the pandemic, then in 2022 and 2023 they had a big sustained rise. In comparison, the rise since early 2026 has been very small — only a few tenths of a percent.

That could be the beginning of a catastrophic rise, and of course when you’re carrying as much debt as the U.S. government is, even a small increase in borrowing costs can be a headache if it’s sustained over a long period of time. But I just can’t look at that little wiggle in 2026 and see evidence of a bond market collapse. You should be very worried about the U.S. national debt, but this rise in rates should only make you a tiny bit more worried, if at all.

So what is behind the (small) rise in long-term rates? There are three basic possibilities.

Is it inflation?

Read more

Collections: Pre-Modern Armies for Worldbuilders, Part Vb: Pixel Armies for Pixel Societies

This is the second half of the final part (I, IIa, IIb, III, IVa, IVb, Va, Vb) of our apparently five-part series laying out some general guidelines for how pre-modern armies are organized, with fictional worldbuilding and historical patterns in mind. Last time we started checking some fictional militaries against the general patterns we’ve laid out and we’re going to continue doing that this week.

This week, I want to turn to some of the more complex militaries structures we’ve discussed and I found they were more common in my repertoire of video games than film or literature, perhaps because the ultra-long-form structure of many video games provides a lot more space to explore complex institutions. So this week, we’re going to look at an example of a professional standing army in the Imperial Legion of The Elder Scrolls series, some private enterprise war through the Vailian Trading Company of Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire and the finally try to untangle the military system of Baldur’s Gate from the broader Forgotten Realms constructed world (including but not limited to Baldur’s Gate 3).

But first, as always, recruiting and maintaining large pre-modern armies is expensive! Much like many of those pre-modern armies, this project is supported by devolving the costs of my ruinous book-buying habit on to recruits readers. You can help by spreading the word to new readers and by supporting this project over at Patreon. If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).

The Imperial Legion

Now I should start by noting one of the obvious quirks of discussing any sort of worldbuilding when it comes to video games which is that video games are the product not of a single vision but of many hands, even more so than film or tv. After all, even just the dialogue of a single game is the product of more than one writer (Oblivion credits six ‘Quest Designers’ and two more for ‘Additional Writing,’ for instance) and of course a lot of the creative decisions are also made by artists, level designers and so on. And of course that team might be very different from one game to the next: there’s a lot of turnover from Morrowind to Skyrim.1 So it shouldn’t surprise us that there may be some inconsistencies or contradictions; nevertheless there is enough continuity here to proceed.

We can begin by sketching out our civilian society. I really think the society of The Elder Scrolls is something we should come back to in more depth, because while it often models itself as the most generic ‘generic fantasy world,’ it actually isn’t in some interesting ways. But we’ll have to stay brief here.

Tamriel (the world of The Elder Scrolls) is, like our previous examples, a complex agrarian society, but it is different in important ways: Tamriel is substantially more urban than either Westeros or Middle Earth. That isn’t just reflected in it having larger cities – these games city sizes are invariably products of graphical limitations, rather than direct one-to-one expressions of worldbuilding – but in the organization of society: in the places we’ve seen mostly clearly (Cyrodiil, Morrowind and Skyrim) the Cyrodiillic Empire (from here on, just ‘the Empire’ for short) is able to organize its administration entirely through urban centers. Castles – fortified private homes in the countryside – exist in this world, but local administration is urban, even in a relatively under-developed province like Skyrim, where each of the administrative divisions (‘Holds’) has a capital in an urban settlement, be that a major city for the larger holds (Riften, Windhelm, Whiterun, Markarth and Solitude all seem to be intended as major cities) or smaller towns for the lesser holds (Falkreath, Dawnstar, Morthal and Winterhold). This is a society organized around cities, rather more like the ancient Mediterranean world than medieval Europe in that regard (and given the frequent Roman theming of the Empire, this hardly seems like an accident). Still agrarian – most of what is going on is still farming – but meaningfully more urban.

The Empire is in turn organized into provinces (nine of them) roughly corresponding to the historic areas of settlement of its constituent fantasy races. Cyrodiil is the capital province and by far the largest (only Morrowind comes close and much of it is thinly settled) and most populous – it is the imperial core and its size and population helps explain why the government in Cyrodiil is able to more-or-less (mostly less, by the time of Skyrim) hold the rest of Tamriel. Each of the provinces has its own internal customary local systems of government. That may seem strange but pre-modern territorial empires often left local ruling systems in place when they could and Cyrodiil does as well. In Cyrodiil proper, we see the province is divided into sub-regions (Counties) with a local ruler (a count) who is strongly subordinated to the center. While the position of count is hereditary, the position has very limited authority (as the wiki notes). in practice, Cyrodiil itself is a state with one legal system dictated from the capital and local ‘rulers’ reduced mostly to functionaries who implement that system, rather than independent powers in their own right.

Via the Unofficial Elder Scrolls Page wiki, the map of Tamriel released alongside Oblivion, which has been the standard map of the whole empire since that game. You can see that Cyrodiil is much larger than any other province, which is remarkable because it is also more densely peopled than any other province as well.

Outside of Cyrodiil, local communities are organized by local laws under local leaders: Morrowind is still ruled by its Great Houses, each with their own territory, while Skyrim is ruled by its Jarls. These entities retain their own local militaries independent of the Empire and so we ought to understand the periphery here as consisting of vassal polities. In short the state part of the Empire is Cyrodiil (and perhaps small parts of the other provinces), but much of the area it rules is non-state client rulers. That also shouldn’t be surprising: this was the normal structure for a lot of large empires – the empires of the Late Bronze Age come to mind especially. Notably though – and we’ll come back to this – the Imperial Legions (the military force of the Empire proper) maintain pretty obvious ‘escalation dominance’ over Cyrodiil’s vassals (at least until things get pear-shaped in Skyrim).2

So we have a fairly well-consolidated state in Cyrodiil which provides the imperial core for the Empire and then a periphery of vassal state- and non-state polities (mostly non-state, as we see them) which the Empire very much controls. How does the military system map onto that?

Surprisingly well, actually, so long as we account for the limitations in scale imposed by the genre (an RPG cannot have 90,000 men on the screen or it will crash) and the requirement for things like ‘town guards’ (so they player doesn’t murder-hobo entire towns).

The political structure (an imperial government with a core territory that also rules over vassal polities) is mirrored in the military structure: there is both the Imperial Legion but also local military forces. In Oblivion, these local forces (commanded by the counts) are little more than constabularies, something that actually is expressed pretty well in-game by how immediately out-matched they are by the Oblivion Crisis compared to the heavier forces of the Imperial Legion. In Morrowind and Skyrim, the forces of the local governments (the Jarls in Skyrim, the [dissertation on the wonderfully complex government of Morrowind here] in Morrowind) look to be quite a bit more substantial: particularly in Morrowind, one gets the sense that the armies of the Great Houses and of the Tribunal Temple are quite formidable (heavier, more expensive equipment, more magic, and so on), even if not a match for the Imperial Legion itself.3 That makes sense: in order to maintain control, the Imperial Legion has to maintain ‘escalation dominance’ – the ability to win at higher levels of escalation (thus dissuading potential foes from escalating) – over the many regional armies of the empire’s provinces.

Via the Unofficial Elder Scrolls Wiki, a selection of Imperial Legion soldiers, with rank descending from left to right. You can see quite clearly that this is n army with relatively uniform, rank-stratified equipment. The largest difference is gender-based (some armor looks different on women and female legionaries tend to wear skirts in addition to their armor), but by and large the legion is uniform apart from very low ranking recruits.

The major problem with the local military forces is that they appear to be standing forces to a substantial degree. We see a lot of ‘guards’ standing around on duty and such. But in practice, such local rulers aren’t going to have much need for a standing military force on duty all the time: most communities have sporadic security needs and small communities generally do not even require much of a permanent, standing constabulary. Instead, we might expect the permanent force to be a small retinue around the local ruler (we actually do see this in Skyrim with the concept of thanes), but beyond that, we might expect a ‘raised for the moment’ form of military organization: some sort of levy or militia, possibly with a standing component that is just a rotating period of duty among those liable to be drawn into the full militia in an emergency (a select levy to go with the general levy). In that case, ‘guard’ wouldn’t so much be a career as it would be something like a two-week shift every year that you had to do, effectively as part of your taxes.

The Imperial Legion (or legions) itself is also a recognizable structure: it seems pretty clearly to be a professional army. Members of the legion are very clearly deployed far from home (a point often exemplified by the legion’s multicultural recruiting) on a permanent basis and are full-time soldiers. Recruiting seems to be done through volunteers. While we see some recruitment of local auxiliary forces in Skyrim, these tend to be lighter troops and might be local auxiliaries: the clear nucleus of the force, we’re told, arrived with General Tullius from Cyrodiil. The legion is most often stationed in permanent fortifications (we see a lot in Morrowind) or key cities (like the Imperial City in Oblivion) – it is not a local militia and makes no effort to be ‘everywhere.’ Its equipment is remarkably (though not perfectly) uniform even in regions where its styles are distinctly foreign such as Morrowind or Skyrim, suggesting that equipment is state-issued and somewhat standardized. It also seems to be a long-service professional organization: we see quite a few ‘old soldiers’ still serving, both in desk-jobs and in combat roles.

A pair of Imperial Legion soldiers from Oblivion. While they retain some of their Roman theme (including an out-of-place Corinthian style helmet that I think is supposed to give Roman vibes, even though it is Greek-inspired), it is striking how much heavier the armor’s design is here than in either Morrowind or Skyrim. It makes the distinction between the plate-armored Imperial Legion and mail-armored town guards very visually striking.

And this is a structure that actually makes a fair bit of sense for a state like this: vassal rulers retain smaller local forces and the Empire largely lets them deal with the day-to-day work of order and administration. Meanwhile, the imperial center, with its greater resources, maintains a large, professional, well-equipped standing army that enables it to coerce those local rulers as well as engage in large-scale warfare. One imagines that, in the event of a major security threat, we’d see the Imperial Legion forces form the core of a field army, probably supplemented by non-legion local forces. The amusing thing is, while I think the developers imagine this structure as ‘Roman-ish,’ the state it actually recalls to me most clearly is the Neo-Assyrian Empire (fl. 911-626) which maintained a core professional army of full-time infantrymen (in matched pairs of archers and shield-bearers) who were then supported by levies drawn up from the empire’s vassals.4

The Imperial Legion in Skyrim. It is interesting that the legion seems a bit lighter in terms of equipment in Skyrim as compared to previous entries (although the pseudo-Roman theme remains clear). I wonder if this was an effort to more clearly express that the Empire is ‘on the ropes’ in Skyrim’s time period as compared to previous games, or simply a product of the decision to almost evenly divide the Legion between heavy and light armor troops (whereas Stormcloaks and town guards are mostly light armor types).

What I think is somewhat underdeveloped – especially in Oblivion and Skyrimis the apparatus to pay for all of this. While other kinds of military systems can have their costs effectively devolved, a state-equipped professional army has to be paid out of the treasury, which in turn demands a state with the ability to raise a lot of revenue. Because it is a volunteer professional army, these soldiers would have to be well paid in order to recruit and retain them. Notably, we do not see in The Elder Scrolls, any indication that these costs are being defrayed by private enterprise war – the Imperial Legion is not a contractor-based army and commissions in its officer corps are not purchased, but awarded based in merit and internal promotion.

Now that’s not to say we don’t see any of that apparatus. The Empire clearly raises revenue both through taxes and through state-chartered monopolies. One of the first things we see in Morrowind is the Syda Neen Census and Excise Office, suggesting both head and excise taxes (excise taxes are taxes on specific goods) and there is a quest related to local tax collection. That said, the tax infrastructure in Morrowind is relatively minimal and that makes sense: most of the game takes place on Vvardenfel, which is only in the initial stages of having imperial control established. Notably, what collection we do see is in ports, suggesting customs and excise taxes may be central here, which also makes sense for a region that is only slowly being brought fully into central administration: port duties and excise taxes on luxury goods (I recall, but cannot find the line of dialogue, where we’re told that the excise taxes are on alcohol) are easier and quicker things to set up.

But what we don’t see is a more focused and intense extraction system in Cyrodiil or especially in Skyrim. By the time Skyrim takes place, the Empire is no longer at peace, but is recovering from a large war and trying to rapidly prepare for its seemingly inevitable sequel, which should demand high revenues and thus that taxes would be high as well. Yet ‘tax revolt’ is nowhere in the Stormcloak rebellion’s motivation (they’re focused more on religious persecution and ethno-nationalism) and we see almost none of the apparatus of extraction that we ought to see for a province that has been long-held by the Empire. The same is broadly true for Cyrodiil, though there are a couple of quests in Oblivion related to things like port taxes in Anvil and such.

Alongside that fairly minimal taxation apparatus, we have another major revenue source, which is the East Empire Company, a fairly obvious riff off of the British East India Company (even borrowing the ‘East’ despite appearing in places like Skyrim that are…not in the East), a massive vertically integrated company with a bunch of state-chartered monopolies on luxury goods. That is a very historically rooted way for a state to raise revenue, of course. The problem is that it isn’t enough. Recall, Tamriel is a complex agrarian society: we see no hint of even early mass manufacture, much less industry, so the overwhelming majority of economic activity is going to be in agriculture and pastoralism. That in turn necessarily means that the revenues generated from something like the East Empire Company are going to be somewhat marginal to the state itself. The Roman Empire had, for instance, a slew of state monopolies (on things like silver mines) as well as rents on state-controlled lands and resources which the Romans collectively called vectigalia, but it is very clear that the large majority of Roman taxes were what the Romans called tributum: taxes assessed on agricultural land or produce.

So what we ought to see in order to complete the Imperial Legions is the infrastructure, particularly in Cyrodiil and Skyrim, for substantial tax collection on the common folk, particularly on agriculture. Now that could be structured in two ways: we could see (as we do in Morrowind) direct imperial taxation, with imperial officials in each settlement assessing taxes themselves. Now those officials might be direct employees of the Empire, but an equally likely solution (which we do seem to see in Morrowind in Caldera, as I recall) are tax farmers: private businessmen who have contracted to do tax collection in an area.

Alternately, the Empire might do what the Romans eventually did: assess taxes on communities and leave it up to local leaders and governments on how to collect those taxes. Given how visible and important local ‘vassal’ rulers are in the Empire, this seems to me the more likely solution: tell the local Jarl or Count or Great House that it is responsible for raising a specific amount of money (or revenue in kind, so a specific amount of grain or recruits or whatever else) and then let them sort it out with their own local administrative apparatus. That said, if this was the system, we ought to hear about it more, especially in Skyrim where the local revolt against the Empire ought to mean that imperial taxes are being collected in some places and are not being collected in others.

All of that said, the fact that the Empire in The Elder Scrolls has a somewhat fragmented structure and then has a fragmented military apparatus – with a professional army enforcing imperial power over a bunch of much smaller local militaries which do the day-to-day work of maintaining law and order – works as a reflection of the society we’re shown. What is missing is mostly just the apparatus of empire itself, which has really been neglected in the setting’s worldbuilding since Morrowind.

The Vailian Trading Company

That said, bringing up the East Empire Trading Company of the Elder Scrolls games highlights one odditiy: the EEC lacks its own military force, instead relying primarily on the Imperial Legion (something we see clearly in Solstheim) and only occasionally on local goons. But of course a massive, state-chartered trading company of this sort is frequently going to have to operate far from the center of imperial control and potentially with local communities that object quite loudly to being so obviously exploited. As a result, these sorts of ‘mega-corps’ tend to operate their own independent military forces: the societates of Roman publicani that managed the tax-farming system (prior to Augustus’ reforms to the largely community-centered tax system mentioned above, though some taxes remained farmed) maintained private security forces we can see clearly in documentary evidence from Roman Egypt, while early modern trading ‘mega-corps’ like the British East India Company or the Dutch VOC maintained full-on private militaries, complete with armies and warships.

But we do see that structure in Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire. And let me also just say: if you are a fan of classic computer role-playing games (BG3, Wrath of the Righteous, Rogue Trader, Solasta, that sort of thing), you really ought to give Deadfire a spin. It is very good and very tightly written (and the stronger of the two Pillars games). It’s also, I think, a better introduction to Eora than the more recent Avowed and I really liked Avowed.

Here the setting is the Deadfire Archipelago, a smaller region in the larger world of Eora, with three principle military powers along with a fourth minor power (the Principi sen Patrena, a very loose pirate confederation that survives to a significant degree in the shatter-zone created by the other three that we’ll leave aside here) and all three are actually pretty well realized. The actually indigenous local power are the Huana. They are significantly fragmented: the strongest tribe (the Kahanga) are a complex agrarian society with a large capital city (Neketaka) that exert an imperial overlordship over smaller tribes and communities in their periphery. Their society is a caste-based one and their military structure follows that: the priests (including ‘Shapers’ who wield powerful magic) and the warriors both are drawn from the highest caste, the Mataru, which thus acts as a hereditary military-and-religious aristocracy which also – not by accident – controls most of the wealth. Their military is thus drawn primarily from this upper-class, drawing its cohesive principle from the exclusivity and strong social expectations for that class, financed by the wealth of its role as the ruling elite (that is to say, wealth extracted from the lower, worker classes). But of course that system imposes strong limits too: the military cannot be readily expanded beyond those classes effectively and the entrenched class interests of the elite render the Huana military static and unresponsive to new technology – though formidable, their position relative to rivals is deteriorating. As a result, the player’s interactions with the Huana are always contextualized by the Huana leadership’s own sense of growing military vulnerability to incursions from foreign colonial powers, of which they have two.

From Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire, the Huana capital of Neketaka. The vertical structure replicates the class structure: the military and religious castes are at the top and their trash and refuse literally flow down to the artisan and eventually worker castes at the bottom. It is a neat visual expression of the society made all the more striking by Queen’s Berth (controlled by the VTC) and the Brass Citadel (controlled by the RDC) strangling the city economically from the bottom up. The player can side with the Huana, but their rulers are not interested in changing their culture and it is hard to see how their rigid, unchanging social system can hold out against the dynamic, predatory invaders for long.
Deadfire is a really good RPG and I really encourage you to give it a try if you haven’t.

The first is the Royal Deadfire Company, which represents the distant maritime kingdom of Rauatai in the Archipelago. The name is something of a euphemism: the institution began as the Rauatai Trading Company, but was brought under the direct control of the ruler of Rauatai (the ranga-nui) and converted into the RDC, which in practice isn’t really a trade company anymore, but an expeditionary force, an army of the government of Rauatai which aims to conquer the region – albeit gradually, because the Huana are still strong enough to make a direct war of conquest a risky proposition. The RDC is thus effectively an expeditionary force of professional soldiers, funded and maintained by Rauatai (itself a large maritime empire) doing ‘ports-and-forts‘ imperialism. Consequently, what we see of them are fortified staging posts (notably Hasongo) to support their navies and channel goods back to the homeland and nearly all of the people we see are military personnel more or less directly employed by the Rauataian state.

Via the Wiki, the Rauataian main base at Hasongo (which has been better days). While there is a port and storage here, you can very visibly see this is a military outpost first and barely a civilian settlement at all. The contrast with the VTC outposts, which almost invariably have a large local population and lots of civilian economic activity, is marked. The RDC is a predatory, exploitative army of conquest, whereas the VTC is a predatory, exploitative company.

Notably, as an aside, we don’t get as much information about the rest of Rauatai’s military that I recall. Honestly, I’d think something like a core army of conscripts might make sense (given how militarized the society is described as being), with only the forces deployed permanently abroad (like the RDC) being composed of professional ‘long-timers.’

In contrast to the RDC which is almost an army of a foreign state, the third power really is a trading company first: the Vailian Trading Company (itself a pretty clear echo of the Dutch VOC, down to the similar acronym). One oddity worth noting is that the VTC is not attached to one state, but several, representing the combined efforts of the Vailian Republics, a loose confederation of city-states. The nearest historical parallel here may actually be something like the historical Hanseatic League. But where the RDC is essentially an arm of the Rauataian state, the VTC is doing something different: private enterprise war. The VTC is a company, run by a board of directors, answerable to investors in the Vailian Republics under a charter sanctions by their confederation.

From the Wiki, the banner of the Vailian Trading Company. The five stars are meant to indicate the company is recognized by all five of the major constituent Vailian Republics.

And (unlike the EEC of the Elder Scrolls series), it has its own military to secure and advance its operations, every bit as predatory as the RDC. And what we see – and I think this makes sense for the society being presented – is a contractor-based military. Indeed, we meet one of these contractors, Atello Valera, who the VTC has contracted to provide a pretty large security presence, including a number of warships. What I do think is missing here is a greater array of contractors and sub-contractors. Realistically, we might expect the regional heads of the VTC (Ignato Castol and Lueva Alvari, who split maritime and land-based operations between them) to have a few key contractors (whatever the Vailian equivalent to colonels or condottiere is), who would then have sub-contractors running individual ships or companies, with basically everyone in the chain effectively functioning as a sort of ‘military entrepreneur.’ We do get a real sense of that entrepreneurship from the Valeras, but they ought not be the ‘only game in town’ on the military side.

From Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire, some VTC troops. There’s actually neat visual storytelling here. The soldier on the far left is a company guard and by far the heaviest armed. Next the three fellows in the one picture are Valera family soldiers, their lighter equipment fitting with the fact that Valera is a naval military contractor. Meanwhile the two figures on the far right are soldiers contracted under the Bardattos and resemble more closely the ‘average’ VTC soldier we see throughout the game.
The VTC, in short, has a bunch of different people contracting soldiers for different tasks, so while there’s a clear cultural similarity in their equipment, it isn’t uniform (unlike the RDC, which is quite uniform!)

That said, I think Deadfire actually does a good job of correlating militaries and societies: the Huana, Rauatai and Vailians have quite different societies and thus quite different militaries: a warrior-class military with devolved costs that fits the caste-based Huana society, a professional military with standardized state equipment and regular pay that fits the very centralized Rauataian state and finally a private enterprise warfare military using military contractors that fits the decentralized structure of the Vailian Republics.

Defending Baldur’s Gate

Now we turn to the unusual military structure of Baldur’s Gate, drawing not just on the recent Baldur’s Gate 3, but more broadly on the lore of the city as part of the Forgotten Realms setting. We’re picking one city to focus on in part because it has become the most visible part of the Forgotten Realms’ setting and also because, to be frank, the military, social and economic structures of the Forgotten Realms are kind of a mess. That’s not necessarily a harsh criticism – this was a setting built for specific purposes (facilitating D&D gameplay) rather than worldbuilding verisimilitude. But that still makes them interesting to talk about from this perspective because they often test public assumptions about what pre-modern societies look like.

(Note that in BG3 one of the major plot-points is an effort by one of the villains to unbalance the city’s military system by adding on an army of evil metal golems to it, in a bid to take over. I’m going to leave that part out here, because the Steel Watchers aren’t part of the stable military system of Baldur’s Gate. Ironically, if Gortash had succeeded, the military system of Baldur’s Gate would make a lot more sense: you’d have a tyrant monarch who ruled the city by virtue of controlling its military.)

Via the Wiki, a screenshot of Baldur’s Gate as it appears in Baldur’s Gate III.

Baldur’s Gate, in the setting, is a major seaside mercantile city with a large population, clearly part of a larger complex agrarian society. Its upper-class are wealthy burghers (rather than large landowners) and it is ruled by a council of four ‘grand dukes’ who are elected for life.5 It is also a big city by pre-modern standards: the wiki figures a population around 120,000 or so in the urban area.

Now one thing in the lore is that because the city has a natural defensive position (it is located on an inlet) and because it has a very strong outer wall built by the heroic figure Balduran, for whom the city is named, that it is generally peaceful and does not necessarily require a large army. The problem here of course is that Baldur’s Gate doesn’t just need to defend the city core, it needs to defend the agricultural hinterland that feeds it. This is a common problem in fantasy worldbuilding – cities divorced from the agricultural lands they require to survive. Nor can this issue be salvaged by saying the Baldur’s Gate is a city that lives on trade and such. These are agrarian societies, which is to say that food production (via farming) makes up the lion’s share of the economy, with textile production (also via pastoralism, agriculture and peasant labor) making up quite a lot of the rest. Consequently, in the absence of industrial production, there’s no amount of economic activity you can be doing in the remaining small slice (think 10-20% at most) of the economy that is going to allow a city to import all of its food and fabric. The only activity that can manage this feat is empire: the (violent) extraction if someone else’s food and fabric, in which case you still have a hinterland, it is simply held by force and coercion.6 The city needs a hinterland and it needs to be defended.

That said, Baldur’s Gate does have an army – indeed it has one-and-a-half armies, in practice. Order in the upper city is kept by an armed constabulary called The Watch which, according to the Wiki, has about a thousand members, of whom perhaps 300 or so are on active duty at any given time, making this effectively a civic militia. What keeps the Watch from acting fully like a military is that they are not empowered to operate outside of the city walls. Amusingly to me, this force of – at any given moment – 300 active soldiers and 700 or so reservists, somehow rates a high command with six major generals and two more senior generals despite being no bigger than a battalion (which would normally by commanded by just one major or captain in our world).

Instead, the main force of Baldur’s Gate’s defense is the Flaming Fist, a mercenary company kept essentially on permanent retainer by the city. It is a standing, effectively professional force, organized on the employment principle, consisting of – according to the wiki – approximately 2,000 soldiers (with a peak strength of 6,000). The Flaming Fist was founded by a grand duke and it seems like its leader (the marshal) is generally one of the four grand dukes that governs the city.

Via the Wiki, the Flaming Fist doing some recruitment.
It is striking how heavy and expensive their equipment is. Maintaining this organization on a permanent basis would be extraordinarily expensive, which if I was a citizen of Baldur’s Gate would get really frustrating, because as far as I can tell the Flaming Fist’s job is to spend the first two acts of every story about the place losing until the heroes show up and save everyone.

And there are a few problems here. The first is a problem that afflicts a lot of Forgotten Realms armies which is this is not enough army. A city-state with more than 100,000 people in the core urban area certainly ought to be able to muster up a much larger army. Medieval Ghent had a population by the late Middle Ages around 50,000 and was able to put something on the order of 8,000 men on the field to fight against the city militia of Bruges in 1382 and they were outnumbered by the Bruges militia. Baldur’s Gate is well over twice the size and yet has a far smaller total force. Indeed, its fairly close in size to Classical Athens (especially if we account for the missing rural countryside a city of that size must have), which was able to deploy more than 12,000 men against Syracuse, supported by roughly 200 triremes (so around 40,000 rowers) and was able to recover from the total loss of that force.

But that size problem gets us to an underlying problem in matching up this type of society, its resources and security needs with the kind of army it has. If we put the Watch aside for now, the primary defense force for Baldur’s Gate are the Flaming Fists and while the lore describes these fellows as a mercenary company because they sometimes take jobs outside of Baldur’s Gate, they’re really a standing army. No one is going to mistake your mercenary company for an independent outfit if it is also traditional that the marshal of the company is also one of the four elected leaders of the city. That’s not an independent mercenary company being hired, that’s a political alliance with Baldur’s Gate enabling another community to gain the protection of its army.

But you may recall as we discussed recruitment and payment principles that the state-supplied (the Flaming Fists have standardized equipment), full-time, long-service professional army is almost exclusively a creature of large, well-administered empires and there’s a reason for that. For one, only such a large and complex state is capable of mobilizing the resources necessary for such an expensive system and equally only large empires have the kind of round-the-clock security needs to justify one. That is, after all, the feature that makes professional armies so expensive: they have to be fed, paid, housed and equipped in wartime as well as peacetime – there is no option to simply send the men back to their homes and jobs. Thus, while smaller states might maintain a small standing force – a prince’s retinue, a small elite unit or a constabulary force – their military is not built around that force, it is built around forces which can be expanded and contracted to fit changing security needs.

As an aside, this is part of why we can’t just say the Flaming Fist function basically as a condottieri force. Italian states raised condottieri in response to specific military threats – they did not maintain them continuously in peacetime. Indeed, one of the key advantages of condottieri was precisely that: you could pay them in war time and not pay them in peace time, though of course they were also famously untrustworthy.

The Flaming Fists also do not fit the political structure of Baldur’s Gate. There is a reason that states which do use standing armies tend to have a unitary power structure, like a monarchy, because the very nature of a long-service standing professional army is that whoever wields that army is the state. Baldur’s Gate is ruled by four high officials who serve for life, three of whom collectively share control over a gendarmerie of 300-part timers and one of whom has control over and the loyalty of a standing for of at least 2,000 professional full-time soldiers. That is a system that becomes a monarchy very fast. Political power here is fragmented, but for some reason military power is not, which is hardly a stable structure.

And finally, the Flaming Fists do not fit the social structure of Baldur’s Gate either. This is a city dominated by a class of wealthy burghers (the ‘patriars,’ a clear riff off of Roman patricians), whose wealth mostly comes from trade or non-agricultural business. That’s fine – there really should be a landholding aristocracy somewhere too – but the problem is that this class is nowhere represented in the military structure. It’s the ruling class, whose interests the military system is intended to protect yet these families do not make up the elite of the military, nor its officer class.

We can effectively go in two directions ‘fixing’ Baldur’s Gate: we can make the society fit the military or the military fit the society. In the first direction: a city which has a professional military force that answers to just one guy (the marshal of the Flaming Fists) isn’t going to be an oligarchic quasi-democracy. It is going to be some kind of autocracy: the marshal is going to be the autocrat who sets the rules, de iure (as a monarchy) or de facto (as a tyranny). In this case, the weakness of the Watch makes sense: this was the city’s old militia, now sidelined because it would threaten the power of a tyrant-marshal, who is probably also busy breaking the power of the old ruling class (the patriars) and consolidating their wealth into his own political network. Alternately, we might get a sort of monarchy-within-bounds as we see in Venice and to an extent (with its two kings) in classical Sparta: a single leader does have command over the military, but the rest of the political system is heavily focused on constraining that leader, to the point that they have officials whose sole job is to watch their every move and there are other political institutions empowered to unilaterally remove a marshal who behaves badly. Even then, a purely professional force seems like a recipe for a self-coup in which the marshal sidelines everyone else because he alone commands the loyalty of the Flaming Fists, whatever the political system may say.

The alternative is to come up with a military system that fits the society we see: a somewhat representative oligarchy (with some democratic elements) primarily lead by a handful of elite families that wield outsized wealth. That kind of society has little need for a large standing army at all: the people with goons are also the people who wield political power and so the system they need is one that catches petty thieves and resolves disputes between each other, not a system to garrison whole districts of the city. The Flaming Fists are unnecessary for such a society (though the Watch as a gendarmerie which serves the collective interests of the patriars might survive).

Now those elite families could tax themselves extremely harshly in order to maintain a meaningful standing army but why would they? Instead, we ought to expect that Baldur’s Gate would defend itself with a civic militia that mirrors its own social structure: the very poor are excluded (and probably don’t vote), while the bulk of the burghers fight as infantry (and have some token political participation) and the patriars serve as officers and cavalry (and have maximum political roles). Because the patriars – or the middling burghers – would rather not tax themselves, they’re going to devolve military costs: everyone buys their own kit and serves based on wealth. That system might take the form of the sort of conscription-based civic armies we see in Greece and Rome or it might take the form of medieval civic militias, like the aforementioned schuttersgilde. If the latter, we should expect those military guilds to be major political actors in the city’s governance, either de iure (they have fixed places on the ruling council or whatever) or de facto (their members just tend always to get elected). Crucially, unlike the Flaming Fists, they wouldn’t be external to the city’s class system, but tightly integrated into it.

Conclusions

This series has ended up rather a lot longer-winded than I intended, but what I hope it has served to demonstrate first is that not all societies have the same sorts of armies. My critiques here have focused mostly on complex agrarian societies, because this was a series for worldbuilders and that is most of what fantasy worlds get made out of, but of course the armies of nomadic pastoral peoples or hunter gatherers are really different as well.

Importantly, societies do not pick their military structures at random, nor are they necessarily free to pick and choose whatever military system they like. Instead, military systems, which are defined by the interaction of principles of recruitment, methods of mobilization, systems of equipment, payment and supply and sources of cohesion are generally long-standing legacy institutions that emerge alongside larger social structures. Individual leaders are rarely at leisure to change or redefine these systems (though it does happen sometimes).

Perhaps most importantly, these systems are invariably tightly connected to the structure of a society and its political organization. No army can help but recreate its civilian social structures on the battlefield. So a society in which the dominant political and economic force is a mass of middling farmers who elect their leaders are likely to form armies composed of a mass of infantrymen who elect their generals. A society in which a handful of elites lord over the disenfranchised and largely impoverished peasantry is likely to have armies centered on mounted elites, with infantry that is limited and unreliable at best. More complex forms of organization, like private enterprise war with military contractors or standing, long-service professional armies, demand states with matching levels of revenues and complexity as well as a set of security needs which demand these expensive, complex and difficult solutions to the problem of raising military force.

While those rules may feel constraining, I think – and I hope in this post and the last, I’ve shown – they can also, for the worldbuilder, offer storytelling opportunities. After all, if armies reproduce their society’s social structures – often more explicitly than the civilian society itself – that means any time an army is ‘on screen,’ it provides an opportunity to say something about the underlying society. An observer who noticed, for instance that British military leadership in the early 1900s was generally drawn from the same handful of schools would have learned something about the structure of power in British society. The same might be said if the person glanced at Europe and noticed that despite its modern industrial economy, most of the high military command of early 1900s Germany in the first World War continued to be drawn from the old Junker class (visible because of the ‘von’ in their names), a trend which continued into the second.

And indeed, someone who glanced at the modern American military and noticed that American officers functionally always have college degrees, that high ranking officers generally have advanced degrees and that American enlisted personnel generally do not have either will have learned something about the structure of class, power and wealth in the United States: our ruling class is defined more by where you went to school and for how long than by your last name or hereditary titles (which we do not have). And the military cannot help but replicate that structure.

The same is equally true in fictional worlds. Of course one shortcut to producing these kinds of interesting linkages is to adopt a historical pattern wholesale by imitating a real polity and making modest changes. That said, it can be equally interesting to think about the implications of odd combinations, especially for societies in transition. Because, of course, societies are never static things and as they change – be that change swift or slow – their military structures will be forced to change with them, or else will be bent and deformed by the attempt not to change. In fiction, civil-military failure can be as interesting as success.

And in the end, a society whose institutions are interwoven and interlinked – as all real societies are – is just more interesting to read about than a fictional society which is a mere jumble of tropes.

More on TestFlight’s Screwy Sort Order

I complained last week that starting with an update last month, the list of apps I’m testing in Apple’s TestFlight app has been sorted alphabetically, rather than by recency. Whatever is going on with this sort order, it isn’t affecting everyone. John Siracusa, amongst many others, has the same problem I do — his list is now alphabetical, and it’s driving him nuts too. Ryan Booker, amongst many others, still has his list sorted by recency.

The weird thing is, back on August 13, the iPhone version of TestFlight started showing my lists in recency-of-last-update order once again. There was no update to the TestFlight app itself. I just started seeing the list in the correct order once again. It was only on my iPhone though — on my Macs and iPad, TestFlight continued to sort apps alphabetically. Then, two days later, my iPhone went back to alphabetical order, and it’s been stuck there ever since.

When the list is sorted by recency, there’s also a “Currently Testing” header at the top of the list, and there are other (disclosable) categories like “Incompatible” and “Previously Tested” at the bottom of the list. When the list is sorted alphabetically, none of these category headers are visible.

 ★ 

WorkOS: Agents Can Now Sign Up for Your App

My thanks to WorkOS for sponsoring the Daring Fireball weekly newsletter this week to promote their Agent Registration. Agents are hitting your signup flow and they’re bouncing off a browser login that was designed for humans. Every one that gives up is a signup you never see.

WorkOS Agent Registration turns that traffic into signups. Enroll via the dashboard and AuthKit publishes an auth.md file that agents read to register for scoped, short-lived credentials you control.

Make your app agent-ready today.

 ★ 

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 241742
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM HST Mon Aug 24 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lala, located several hundred miles north of Pearl and Hermes
Atoll, on Tropical Depression Moke, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Iselle,
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it drifts north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
NNNN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


977
ABNT20 KNHC 241755
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite-wind data indicate that the low-level circulation remains
broad in association with an area of low pressure centered a few
hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive for further development, but this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
through Tuesday while it moves northward and north-northeastward,
well northeast of Bermuda. By Wednesday, the low is forecast to
move over cold waters, ending its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure is centered a
few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter portions of the week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lala, located several hundred miles north of Pearl and Hermes
Atoll, on Tropical Depression Moke, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Iselle,
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage, but remain
disorganized, in association with a well-defined low pressure
system located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions could still
support the development of a short-lived tropical depression during
the next day or so while the system moves generally northward or
north-northeastward, before it becomes absorbed by Tropical Storm
Iselle.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south of southern Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by the end of this week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form well offshore of Central
America late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system over the weekend while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well
offshore of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located well to the east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it drifts north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Comet 220P is unexpectedly bright. Comet 220P is unexpectedly bright.