Small but mighty

As the Sun sets, a telescope opens its eye, preparing to peer beyond its shiny dome into the sky above. Today’s Picture of the Week was taken at La Silla, ESO’s first observatory, located near the outskirts of Chile’s Atacama Desert at 2400 metres above sea level. It features the MPG/ESO 2.2-metre telescope — originally constructed by the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy and installed by ESO at La Silla Observatory — which has been observing the cosmos since 1983.

Though the 2.2-metre is small by today’s standards, it still does a lot of excellent work. The telescope hosts three instruments: a camera to pinpoint the location of gamma-ray bursts (the most energetic explosions in the Universe), a spectrograph that studies stars in detail, and a Wide Field Imager (WFI) to capture stunning images of celestial objects. The WFI, in particular, has produced dramatic visuals of colourful nebulae as well as inky black dust clouds hosting early star formation.

Since 2013 the 2.2-metre telescope has been solely used by the Max Planck Society plus Chilean astronomers. With its long-standing presence and distinctive silver dome, it still holds a special place in the hearts of many ESO astronomers, including the photographer Luca Sbordone: “I saw it first when I was an ESO student and spent a few weeks in La Silla and has been dear to me ever since.”

Wild, Scenic, and Increasingly Rusty

A map of Alaska shows rusting river locations, with red colors indicating higher density. Most have been observed in the Brooks Range, stretching east-west across northern Alaska.
Rusting rivers occur across the Brooks Range in northern Alaska, as shown in this map based on in situ and satellite observations from 2007-2024.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

From declines in annual sea ice extent to the greening of the tundra, environmental change has been unfolding incrementally in the Arctic over decades. Some shifts, however, have come on more abruptly.

Satellite, aerial, and ground-based surveys spanning more than 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) across Alaska’s Brooks Range have observed stream water changing from clear to orange in more than 200 watersheds. What’s more, scientists are finding that the switch has largely taken place within the past 10 to 12 years, coinciding with a pronounced increase in air and ground temperatures.

Thawing permafrost soils, accelerated by warming air and ground temperatures, are the most likely cause of the “rusty” rivers, scientists say. They surmise that water is now encountering thawed ground and bedrock where it previously had not. Chemical weathering of minerals leaches iron, sulfuric acid, and trace metals into streams, akin to the process behind acid mine drainage, which similarly pollutes and discolors water near abandoned mines. Microbes may also contribute to the color change by producing a soluble form of iron as they digest plant and animal matter in thawing soils, which then becomes oxygenated, or “rusts,” in flowing streams.

Researchers have only recently begun to comprehend the prevalence of rusting rivers in Arctic regions. In 2024, a team of National Park Service, U.S. Geological Survey, and university scientists documented 75 northern Alaskan streams that recently changed from clear to orange. With subsequent exploration, mostly using high-resolution satellite imagery, they added 200 more observations. The locations of these discolored streams, published in NOAA’s 2025 Arctic Report Card, are shown in the map above.

“I’m still surprised by the broad spatial scope of our observations,” said Brett Poulin, environmental toxicologist at the University of California, Davis. He and his collaborators have been monitoring the region’s streams since 2013—when many were still clear. “Now we’re seeing hundreds of streams that have changed color seemingly overnight, including in designated National Wild & Scenic River corridors,” he said.

2017
2020
A gently curving river runs from right to left through green tundra vegetation.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A gently curving river runs from right to left through green tundra vegetation. A segment of the river appears orange.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A gently curving river runs from right to left through green tundra vegetation.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A gently curving river runs from right to left through green tundra vegetation. A segment of the river appears orange.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
2017
2020
The Agashashok River in Noatak National Preserve is one of many streams in Alaska whose water has turned from clear to rusty orange. The change appears in these images, acquired on July 12, 2017 (left), and July 20, 2020 (right), by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8. NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison.

Observations from NASA/USGS Landsat satellites allowed the team to determine the timing of several of these changes. For the 2024 study led by ecologist Jon O’Donnell of the National Park Service, the team calculated a redness index based on red and blue spectral information sensitive to the color of iron hydroxides (i.e., rust) in water. After analyzing a subset of streams, they found that some turned rusty around 2018 and stayed that way, while others had periods of rusting and then returned to being clear.

One stream that underwent a sudden change is the Agashashok River in Noatak National Preserve (above). In 2019, a jump in redness values appeared in Landsat data along this waterway. Ground and aerial surveys the same year found an orange section of the river several kilometers long, and vegetation around nearby groundwater seeps and springs appeared blackened. “The Landsat archive has proved uniquely useful for investigating the historical onset of rusting rivers where creeks and rivers are sufficiently large,” Poulin said.

Having gained a better picture of the extent and timing of the phenomenon, the researchers want to focus on the conditions driving the orange color’s onset and the yearly and seasonal changes. A deep snowpack may play a role some years, for example, by insulating the soil from cold winter temperatures and enabling permafrost thaw earlier in the summer. In addition, periods of higher streamflow throughout the year can dilute the discoloration. The team is planning a geophysical survey along a hillslope where acidic groundwater is discharging to the surface to investigate the subsurface geology, hydrology, and permafrost.

Further, they seek to quantify the effects on water quality and aquatic ecosystems. Communities rely on these river systems for drinking water and subsistence fisheries, and a decrease in stream biodiversity has already been documented in some locations coincident with water turning orange. The researchers now are looking deeper into the patterns of toxicity over time and space, such as where rusting rivers overlap with known spawning areas for migratory fish.

“The rusting river phenomenon is a good example of an unforeseen consequence of permafrost thaw in the Arctic,” Poulin said. “Further, it’s consistent with the emergence of acid rock drainage following cryosphere loss across Earth.”

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using stream location data from O’Donnell, J.A., et al., and Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

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Gurman on Tang Tan and Paul Meade

Mark Gurman, reporting for Bloomberg (paywalled, alas):

Apple was quickly alarmed by OpenAI’s recruiting drive, which included poaching senior hardware and design leaders and ravaging several teams across its engineering organizations. The practice continued as recently as June, when OpenAI lured away Apple’s smart glasses chief. That executive, Paul Meade, was quickly shown the door at Apple and not given the opportunity to stay on for a transition period, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Regarding Tang Tan, who is at the center of Apple’s lawsuit:

Tan was famous for taking risks at Apple and “flying very close to the sun” during his 25-year career, according to someone who worked with him. “Tang is well known for moving fast, playing fast and loose and breaking things,” said the person, who asked not to be identified while discussing former colleagues.

Gurman broke the story of Meade leaving Apple for OpenAI on June 26, writing then:

Meade’s departure is a blow to the iPhone maker. He has led hardware engineering for the Vision Pro headset — once seen as Apple’s next major computing platform — for seven years. Apple and OpenAI spokespeople declined to comment. He has also been responsible for the development of display-free Apple smart glasses meant to vault the company into the AI wearables space next year and compete with a growing category pioneered by Meta Platforms Inc.

 ★ 

SpaceX gears up for Starship Flight 13

Starship flight 13 static fire

SpaceX plans to conduct its next Starship launch as soon as July 16 to test fixes to issues from the previous flight and deploy functioning Starlink satellites.

The post SpaceX gears up for Starship Flight 13 appeared first on SpaceNews.

‘Every Frame Perfect’

Nikita “Tonsky” Prokopov:

The rule of thumb is:

If I take a screenshot of your app at any moment, you should be able to explain what I see.

Why care about every frame? It builds trust. Users can’t see the code, so UI is the only way for them to judge the quality of the app. If UI looks good, that means developers had time to polish it, which means that they probably spent a comparable amount of time to iron out the code. It’s a heuristic, but a reasonable one.

Now, what does it mean in practice? I can think of a few things:

  • No white flashes between screens.
  • No partially loaded content.
  • No relayout while content loads.
  • Internally consistent. If one part of the UI says “1 update available”, another part should not say “Checking for updates...”
  • Precise animations.

Animations often end up being forgotten. A UI might look great in both start and end states but very janky in between.

“Every frame perfect” is a great mantra for UI craftsmanship. If you care about every frame, that discipline will be palpable, even though almost no users will ever examine your animations and transitions frame-by-frame, and most will happen too quickly to see in real time. If you cut corners on interstitial states “because no one will notice”, you’ll start cutting corners elsewhere.

 ★ 

TwoMillionKit: Use Private Cloud Compute in MacOS 27 Foundation Models Without an Entitlement

Guilherme Rambo:

Apple ships the fm command-line tool in macOS 27, which can be used to run inference with the local system model or Private Cloud Compute from Terminal or scripts. You know what else can run command-line tools? Mac apps! 😃

I decided to spend some of my Codex tokens and take GPT 5.6 Sol for a spin. I asked it to create this Swift package. All it does is provide a LanguageModel implementation that uses the fm command-line tool under the hood, meaning that any Mac app can use the Private Cloud Compute model without requiring a special entitlement from Apple.

The main limitation is that this will not work for sandboxed Mac apps, so any Mac app distributed via the Mac App Store won’t be able to use it.

But for developers of Mac apps distributed outside the Mac App Store, this provides a simple and entitlement-free way to use Private Cloud Compute in their apps.

Use sparingly and at your own risk.

This is a workaround for Apple’s current limitation that only grants access to Private Cloud Compute to “developers in the App Store Small Business Program with fewer than two million first time App Store downloads”. Hence Rambo’s clever name for the framework.

 ★ 

Sam Altman and Elon Musk Argue Over Who’s Running the Bigger Scam

Elon Musk, linking to his own tweet from March that “Sam Altman is super good at scamming”:

He takes scamming to a whole new level

Sam Altman:

homeboy you’re the one sellling public market investors on short-term space datacenters

Musk:

We start flying them next year. Maybe you can come see them if your parole officer approves.

After stealing an open source AI charity, you then stole all of Apple’s phone technology! Wow.

What do you plan for an encore? That’s tough to beat.

(All spelling, capitalization, and punctuation sic.)

These are two of the CEOs of the most valuable companies on the planet. Say what you want about it, but Musk’s Twitter/X is like nothing else that’s ever existed. Screenshot of the thread for posterity, and an XCancel link for those icked by X itself.

 ★ 

Lunacy — Jeff Halter’s Lunatic Fringe Player

After linking to Stacks, his remarkable new modern HyperCard player, I made the terrible mistake of clicking around the rest of Jeff Halter’s website, and fell upon Lunacy:

Created by Ben Haller and released in the early ’90s as part of the Macintosh More After Dark software package, Lunatic Fringe was unique among screensavers in that it was not just a passive animation to watch, but an interactive game! Toggling the Caps Lock key while the screensaver was running popped you into a space shooter where you could fly around, collect power-ups, and blast a variety of baddies all in pursuit of a high score. It was a blast.

Running Lunatic Fringe on a modern computer has been a challenge. Fringe Player by Greg Parker filled this need during Apple’s PPC and Intel era, but is not supported on modern Apple platforms. Lunacy brings Lunatic Fringe to the present: a native Swift app with a built-in emulation engine that runs the original module, unchanged, on modern Apple platforms.

Lunatic Fringe is one of my all-time favorite classic Mac games. Lunacy is a great modern player, including CRT simulation to make the game look a lot more like it did back in the day.

 ★ 

Stacks — HyperCard Player for Modern MacOS

Well this is just delightful:

  • Run HyperCard stacks directly on your modern Mac. No emulator required!
  • Browse the Internet Archive’s HyperCard collection and run stacks with one-click.
  • Period-accurate typography.
  • Sound, instruments, and MacinTalk speech synthesis.
  • Cross-stack navigation.

Stacks is a really beautiful native Mac app, and its presentation of classic HyperCard stacks is exquisitely faithful to the era. It’s simultaneously Mac-assed 2026-style and Mac-assed 1987-style. Crackerjack work from developer Jeff Halter.

 ★ 

Lindsey Graham Always Needed a Daddy

There’s not a lot I have to add to the reporting on Lindsey Graham’s sudden and unexpected death. The longtime South Carolina senator died yesterday evening after what his office is calling a “brief and sudden illness.” (Other unconfirmed reports point to a heart attack and cardiac arrest.) Obituaries are referring to him as a consistent foreign policy hawk, a stalwart Trump supporter. Both true. But there’s another feature of his personality and political career that is key to understanding the man. He always needed a daddy. Or let’s say a political leader. A top dog.

Graham was first elected to the House in 1994 and was very much part of the Gingrich Revolution. He was a leader — though perhaps not the most carnivorous — of the push to impeach Bill Clinton. He was one of the impeachment managers in the Senate trial. So in the ’90s he was one of those right wing foot soldiers of Gingrichism. But then Gingrich got bounced from the speakership and Congress, and a couple years later Graham got elected to the Senate. And after not too long he fell in with John McCain, who was then in the most heterodox period of his Senate career — after the 2000 presidential run and before he had to start getting a bit more into line to try again in 2008. (Hard to recall now but there were real hints or at least rumors that McCain might switch parties.) But the point is that Graham became very, very much McCain’s guy, almost like his deputy or top follower. And his politics, his political style if not always his policy positions, became very, very different. A lot of the interventionist stuff either came from McCain or was deepened and amplified by him.

McCain-era Graham was a very, very different guy than he was in the ’90s era. He was anything but a partisan warrior. Like McCain, he leaned into friendships and alliances with Democrats. A big pal of both men was none other than Joe Biden. He was also one of the most vocal critics, beginning in 2015, of Donald Trump.

But then just a few months into Trump’s first term, in 2017, McCain was diagnosed with brain cancer and died the following year. Almost simultaneous with Trump’s reign in Washington, McCain was mostly gone from the scene, largely absent from the Senate. This kicked off another transformation, or we might call it an adoption.

Of course, Graham isn’t the only Republican senator who made his peace with Donald Trump. Ted Cruz almost led a convention rebellion against Trump. But he found his way to being another pretty loyal foot soldier in pretty short order. (For Graham, the pyrotechnics over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation was a pivotal moment.) But Graham’s transformation was always a bit more than other Republican senators making their peace with the new regime. Graham really, really wanted to be Trump’s guy. And he really did become Trump’s guy. If you observed the transformation closely, it always seemed more than just an effort to secure his political standing in the order. He really wanted to be one of Trump’s right hands and all that.

What I’ve described above are pretty major political and even personality transformations. The first one, from Gingrich to McCain, might be seen as part of the different personality of the Senate or perhaps a partisan softening moving into later middle age. But the second one points to something different, more of a pattern. I don’t know how these shifts will figure in his obituaries. In general, they’ve gotten pretty little attention over the years, even though they’re certainly not hidden or unknown. Graham was a natural follower. He needed a top dog, a daddy figure he could arrange himself around. In the interest of saying something positive about the departed, Graham did remain a supporter of NATO and even more an opponent of Russian expansionism in eastern Europe. Indeed, he had just returned from one of many trips to Ukraine and there announced that he’d secured Trump’s blessing for a tightened round of sanctions against Russia. Still, he managed to work those angles within the confines of Trump loyalty.

There are worse things you can say about a man than that he was a loyal follower, or perhaps a born follower. There are others one could say about Graham, though it’s not the moment for that. But this feature of his personality and his 30 years in Washington politics deserves more attention, and, I think, is essential to understanding the man.

Paulo Andrade: ‘A WWDC 27 Update on Building a Mac-Assed App With SwiftUI’

Paulo Andrade:

My last post on using SwiftUI to build a Mac-assed app got a bit more traction than I expected. It was mentioned on Mastodon several times, included in iOS Dev Weekly, inspired May’s edition of the Swift Blog Carnival, and was eventually mentioned by John Gruber, arguably the person most to blame for popularizing the term “Mac-assed”, on Daring Fireball.

All this attention also resulted in an engineer from Apple reaching out with some notes. We exchanged a few emails, I filed a few radars, and now that WWDC 27 is behind us, this post serves as a small update to the issues I wrote about before.

There’s real progress here, but I think my main point still stands: SwiftUI is now seven years old and it does not make it easy to create great Mac apps.

 ★ 

How UIs Degrade Over Time

These examples are from Windows, but the same degradation is true for the standard look for MacOS alerts too. There was a time when system UI chrome was improving in clarity, everywhere. Today we live in an age when it’s degrading in clarity, everywhere. It’s rather inexplicable.

 ★ 

Sunday 12 July 1663

(Lord’s day). Up, and meeting Tom Willson he asked my pardon again, which I easily did give him, telling him only that it was well I was not a woman with child, for it might have made me miscarry.

With Sir J. Minnes to church, where an indifferent good sermon. Here I saw Mrs. Becky Allen, who hath been married, and is this day churched, after her bearing a child. She is grown tall, but looks very white and thin, and I can find no occasion while I am here to come to have her company, which I desire and expected in my coming, but only coming out of the church I kissed her and her sister and mother-in-law.

So to dinner, Sir J. Minnes, Commissioner Pett, and I, &c., and after dinner walked in the garden, it being a very fine day, the best we have had this great while, if not this whole summer.

To church again, and after that walked through the Rope-ground to the Dock, and there over and over the Dock and grounds about it, and storehouses, &c., with the officers of the Yard, and then to Commissioner Pett’s and had a good sullybub and other good things, and merry. Commissioner Pett showed me alone his bodys as a secrett, which I found afterwards by discourse with Sir J. Minnes that he had shown them him, wherein he seems to suppose great mystery in the nature of Lynes to be hid, but I do not understand it at all.

Thence walked to the Hill-house, being myself much dissatisfied, and more than I thought I should have been with Commissioner Pett, being, by what I saw since I came hither, convinced that he is not able to exercise the command in the Yard over the officers that he ought to do, or somebody else, if ever the service be well looked after there.

Sat up and with Sir J. Minnes talking, and he speaking his mind in slighting of the Commissioner, for which I wish there was not so much reason. For I do see he is but a man of words, though indeed he is the ablest man that we have to do service if he would or durst. Sir J. Minnes being gone to bed, I took Mr. Whitfield, one of the clerks, and walked to the Dock about eleven at night, and there got a boat and a crew, and rowed down to the guard-ships, it being a most pleasant moonshine evening that ever I saw almost. The guard-ships were very ready to hail us, being no doubt commanded thereto by their Captain, who remembers how I surprised them the last time I was here. However, I found him ashore, but the ship in pretty good order, and the arms well fixed, charged, and primed. Thence to the Soveraign, where I found no officers aboard, no arms fixed, nor any powder to prime their few guns, which were charged, without bullet though.

So to the London, where neither officers nor any body awake; I boarded her, and might have done what I would, and at last could find but three little boys.

And so spent the whole night in visiting all the ships, in which I found, for the most part, neither an officer aboard, nor any men so much as awake, which I was grieved to find, specially so soon after a great Larum, as Commissioner Pett brought us word that he [had] provided against, and put all in a posture of defence but a week ago, all which I am resolved to represent to the Duke.

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Week Seven in 250 to 250

This was the seventh week of videos from the 250 to 250 Project that we’re producing to honor the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. This one is a particularly fun week for me: in the wide range of stories are many that I insisted we include, and then a dream list of people took time out of their crazy busy schedules to narrate them.

I hope you all are enjoying these are much as we are. Our biggest problem now is that there are way more that we’d like to produce than we have the space for.

A reminder: we designed the videos to emphasize the agency of Americans—mostly everyday Americans—to change the country. Each falls into a category that defines what it means to be an American, including community, democracy, innovation, mobility, civil rights, education, conservation, and creativity.

You can follow the project at the sites listed below, or under “videos” at my own YouTube page: Heather Cox Richardson. Or just wait until I send out the week’s roundup.

Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
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Carnegie Libraries, Narrated by Mayor Corey O’Connor

Corey O’Connor is the 62nd mayor of Pittsburgh. Mayor O’Connor and his wife, Katie, serve as official ambassadors for the Carnegie Library of Pittsburgh’s summer reading program. Mayor O’Connor tells us how “robber baron” Andrew Carnegie gave much of his fortune to building almost 2,000 libraries across the United States.

Fourteenth Amendment, Narrated by Sherrilyn Ifill

Dr. Sherrilyn Ifill is a civil rights attorney, expert, and scholar. She is the former president of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund and the founder and director of the 14th Amendment Center for Law & Democracy at Howard University School of Law. Ifill shows us the significance of the Fourteenth Amendment, which established that anyone born in the United States is a citizen.

The Banjo, Narrated by Alison Brown

Alison Brown is a Grammy-award winning banjoist, co-founder of Compass Records and recovering investment banker. Brown traces the history of the banjo, from its roots in enslaved Africans’ musical traditions to its lasting influence on American music.

Miss America Pageant, Narrated by Katie Boyd

Katie Boyd is a prominent media personality, fitness and spiritual lifestyle coach, and founder of Katie Boyd’s Miss Fit Club. Boyd examines the Miss America pageant, whose century-long history reflects America's slow reckoning with women’s rights and racial equality.

Trail of Tears, Narrated by Shana Bushyhead Condill

Shana Bushyhead Condill is a citizen of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI), and Executive Director of the Museum of the Cherokee People in Cherokee, North Carolina. Shana Bushyhead Condill recounts the Trail of Tears, the brutal forced removal of Indigenous peoples whose survival remains a testament to Native resilience that endures today.

Muscle Shoals Rhythm Section, Narrated by Patterson Hood

Patterson Hood is a writer and performer, best known as a co-founder and lead singer of the rock & roll band the Drive-By Truckers. He is the son of musician David Hood, a founding member of the Muscle Shoals Rhythm Section. Here, Patterson celebrates the Swampers, the Muscle Shoals session musicians who crossed racial lines to create some of America’s most iconic soul and rock records.

Nam June Paik, Narrated by Min Jin Lee

Min Jin Lee is the award-winning author of Free Food for Millionaires and Pachinko, a finalist for the National Book Award. Her fiction explores the Korean diaspora and identity, and she currently serves as New York State Author Laureate. Lee profiles Nam June Paik, the Korean American artist who became the father of video art and foresaw our connected digital future.

Dean Acheson, Narrated by Antony Blinken

Antony Blinken served as the 71st U.S. Secretary of State. Here, Blinken profiles Dean Acheson, the statesman who helped build the rules-based international order—from the Marshall Plan to NATO—that stabilized the postwar world.

Corps of Discovery Expedition, Narrated by Megan Kate Nelson

Dr. Megan Kate Nelson is an American historian and a Pulitzer Prize finalist, and is the author of new book The Westerners: Mythmaking and Belonging on the American Frontier. Nelson follows the epic journey of Lewis and Clark, who mapped the American West and transformed the young nation’s knowledge of its vast new territory.

John Quincy Adams, Narrated by Bob Crawford

Bob Crawford, the bassist for the Avett Brothers, is also a historian, podcast host, childhood cancer advocate, and author of America's Founding Son": John Quincy Adams, from President to Political Maverick. Crawford presents the inspiring life of President John Quincy Adams, who used his post-presidency to fight against slavery.

Kent State Killings, Narrated by Rosanne Cash

Rosanne Cash is an author and Grammy-winning singer-songwriter. She is one of the few women in the Nashville Songwriters Hall of Fame and the only woman to receive the Edward MacDowell Medal in Composition. Cash recounts the 1970 Kent State killings, when National Guardsmen opened fire, leaving four students dead and forcing a national reckoning over protest and police violence.

1889 Apia Cyclone, Narrated by Elinor Lutu-McMoore

Elinor Lutu-McMoore is the Director of the American Samoa Weather Service and Meteorologist-in-Charge at the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Pago Pago. Lutu-McMoore tells how an 1889 cyclone that destroyed a fleet of warships in Samoa spurred Congress to build the modern American Navy.

Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
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July 11, 2026

Last night the Department of Justice subpoenaed reporters from the New York Times over a story the newspaper published on Wednesday. Julian E. Barnes, Eric Lipton, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt reported that the Secret Service had security concerns about the new Air Force One Boeing 747-8 given to the U.S. by Qatar. So, when tensions escalated with Iran while Trump was in Türkiye for the NATO summit, they asked the president to use one of the other, older, Air Force One planes for his return journey.

Trump and White House officials pushed back strongly against the idea that the new plane had any security problems after pouring what appears to have been hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars into renovating the plane. But, according to Adam Gramegna of Military . com, U.S. officials told CBS News that the speed with which the plane was rushed into service meant that it does not have the same protections as the older planes.

According to Devlin Barrett, Glenn Thrush, and Maggie Haberman of the New York Times, the story that his prized plane was not as good as the older ones enraged Trump, and the White House called in FBI director Kash Patel to find the two anonymous sources who leaked it. Patel spent about 8 hours on Friday running an investigation from the White House, rather than FBI headquarters, before the reporters received the subpoenas.

U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton, whom Trump has nominated to be the next director of national intelligence, issued the subpoenas. The reporters are ordered to testify before a federal grand jury in Manhattan on Wednesday “in regard to an alleged violation of federal criminal law.” The Department of Justice said the subpoenas are related to “the crime of leaking national security information.”

The Justice Department emphasized that “reporters are not the targets. Those leaking classified information are.” But issuing subpoenas to U.S. journalists, who are protected from government interference by the First Amendment, is a huge red flag. As former Time magazine editor Rick Stengel noted: “The reporting that the Times journalists have been subpoenaed for is exactly the kind of journalism the First Amendment is designed to protect: matters involving national security and taxpayer dollars. Reporting that embarrasses a president is protected speech.”

David McCraw, senior vice president and deputy general counsel for the Times, said: “The appearance of Federal law enforcement agents on the doorstep of news reporters should shock the conscience of any American who believes in the Constitution and the press freedom it protects. Our journalists report the facts and advance the American public’s right to know how their government is operating and their taxpayer dollars are being used. This brazen act should be seen as nothing more than an attempt to prevent the public from knowing what is happening in their country by intimidating journalists from doing their jobs.”

By 11:18 PM on Friday, Trump’s fury had turned back to Iran. He posted on social media that if Iran tried to assassinate him, “Locked and Loaded” missiles would begin to rain down on the country “to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran—PRAISE BE TO ALLAH!”

Today he turned his anger toward those questioning his mental acuity, particularly New York Times journalist Maggie Haberman, who commented on MS NOW about his reference in Türkiye to the “Islamic State of Japan.” At 12:23 PM he lashed out at “Maggot Hagerman” and then, to refute her claims, wrote that he “just finished a perfect physical at Walter Reed, I do it every six months, and I requested another Cognitive Test, the only President to do so, three times, and I aced them all—Got every question right. Few people in Washington, D.C., could do so, including Maggot and her flunky associate, Jonathan Swan. I would be willing to bet they couldn’t get 50% of the questions right.”

The White House said Trump was referring to a physical he underwent in May.

Then, at 3:16, the president’s account posted a screed of almost 450 words complaining angrily that “I win the Election IN A LANDSLIDE against the entire Dumocrat Party,…against almost 100% negative press and Fake News,…especially Maggot Hagerman, one of the most unattractive people in the News “Business,” and her lightweight assistant, Jonathan Swan…. All I do is WIN, often against all odds,” yet no one compliments him on his great successes.

Here he may have had in mind Thursday’s news story from Catherine Rampell of The Bulwark about his claim on social media on Monday that Walmart would be “dropping the price of ground beef by almost 15 percent” “at my Administration’s request.” Rampell reported that a Walmart spokesperson told her a different story: the price cuts were part of usual summer rollbacks, which had begun the week before Trump took credit for them. Rampell noted that Trump “looks for opportunities to slap his name on politically useful things that companies were already planning to do—seasonal sales, major investments, hiring, et very much cetera.”

White House spokesperson Kush Desai clarified on social media that the president’s “announcement was that the sale is extending all summer long,” adding, “The media’s obsessive need to try to undermine any good news when it affects President Trump is pathological.”

A rant about the news media took up most of Trump’s long post, as he insisted that those reporting his bad poll numbers and policy failures “have no credibility…. If the Election was held again today, I would win by even more—Actually, much more!” he posted. “The Dumocrats don’t have what it takes, their Policies are wrong, and they are, generally, stupid people. They are going COMMUNIST because they are a desperately ‘sinking ship,’ and there’s not a thing they can do about it.

“Instead of writing inaccurate, false articles, for over 10 years now, shouldn’t it be time that they say, ‘We give up, we can’t beat him, there seems nothing we can do.’ Isn’t it time they say, ‘TRUMP IS THE BEST POLITICAL ATHLETE OF ALL TIME! CONGRATULATIONS, MR. PRESIDENT. YOU HAVE BEATEN US FOR 10 YEARS, AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO WASTE OUR TIME FIGHTING YOU ANY LONGER. WE CAN’T WIN. DO A GREAT JOB, SIR, RUNNING OUR COUNTRY. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!’”

Journalist Aaron Rupar used a common meme often used to respond to unreasonably long posts. “I ain’t reading all that,” he commented. “I’m happy for u tho. Or sorry that happened.” Conservative lawyer George Conway wrote: “A severely mentally ill man has control of the launch codes for America’s nuclear arsenal, but it doesn’t seem that many people care.”

Almost 450 words evidently weren’t enough. At 4:54 he reiterated the themes of the long post in a shorter one, then a minute later, accused “the Dumocrats” of being communists. A minute after that, he claimed: “The Radical Left Lunatics, often referred to as Dumocrats, have lost control of their Party.”

Apparently, media criticism still stung. At 5:27, Trump took on reports of the high cost of his damaging renovations in Washington, D.C. Posting photos of what he said was “the horrible front of the White House,” he continued: “The Radical Left Dumocrats criticize me for spending so much time bringing our White House back to the Glory of 100 years ago—Actually, it will be far better than that, and they will not shame us for bringing our Great and Brilliant Monuments to the past and the future back to levels never seen before. This is what we are doing all over Washington, D.C., and, in different ways, with our Country, itself!”

But his confidence that American voters will support Republicans in the 2026 elections is shaky enough that he continues to call for the Senate to rig them. At 6:07 he reposted what purported to be a poll from right-wing loyalist Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) claiming that 97.2% of supporters want the Senate to take up the voter suppression SAVE America Act when it goes back into session next week, while only 2.8% want the Senate to take up “Anything else.”

Meanwhile, on Friday a Pentagon official told Rebecca Turco of WJLA 7News in Washington, D.C., that National Guard troops will stay activated in Washington through Inauguration Day 2029 “until law and order are fully restored in our Nation’s Capital.”

“So,” Bill Kristol of The Bulwark commented. “[M]ilitary troops under the direct control of Trump and Hegseth will be on the streets of our nation’s capital for the rest of Trump’s term. The rationale—they’re here to help with a crime emergency—is laughable. But of course the real reason is ominous.”

Notes:

https://www.military.com/justice-department-subpoenas-reporters-air-force-one-security

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/us/politics/trump-air-force-one-security.html

https://www.npr.org/2026/07/11/g-s1-133160/justice-department-subpoenas-new-york-times-reporters-over-air-force-one-reporting

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/us/politics/air-force-one-trump-cost.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/us/politics/white-house-patel-investigation-times.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/business/media/new-york-times-trump-subpoenas.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-walmart-beef-white-house-b3012769.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-just-finished-physical-walter-reed-2026-07-11/

https://cbs4local.com/news/nation-world/national-guard-washington-dc-pentagon-donald-trump-dc-safe-and-beautiful-mission-metropolitan-police-department-mpd-anti-crime-freedom-250-crime-federal-law-enforcement-emergency-executive-order-7news-district-of-columbia

The Bulwark
The Price of Staying on Trump’s Good Side
GREAT NEWS! THERE’S A BRAND-NEW marketing hack, courtesy of our salesman-in-chief. If you need free advertising, just claim you have a terrific deal, and say Donald Trump convinced you to do it. He won’t be able to resist hawking your wares…
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https://thehill.com/homenews/5964144-trump-slams-maggie-haberman/

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The War on Voting

Whatever the disappointments and scandals with the candidates themselves, the Trump administration war on voters, voting and election outcomes is well underway.

It is only going to get more contentious, not less.

In the last week or so, we have been inundated with reports of rape allegations in Maine leading to withdrawal of Democrat Graham Platner as a candidate for Senate, hypocritical voter address fraud charges about Attorney General Ken Paxton as a Senate candidate in Texas, and internecine fighting among Democratic progressives in Michigan and Colorado, as well as in New York City.

Between character flaws hidden and those leapt upon by opponents, we have entered the political silly season, where personalities and advertising seem to dictate more about our national direction than voter concerns. The activity has renewed speculations about Congressional majorities that will emerge in November

But amid all of it, we have witnessed a parade of anti-voting moves by the administration. After a series of court setbacks, Team Trump is moving to threats and pressure campaigns to influence voting procedures as all as outcomes. On Thursday, for example, Trump used his newly granted Supreme Court powers over independent agencies to fire or force resignation of the three remaining members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, eliminating yet another obstacle towards seeking control over state elections.

The force of the anti-voting is based on Trump’s personal animosity and desire for revenge against whatever caused seven million more votes against him in 2020 than for Joe Biden. As we know, Trump takes losses hard, and starts blaming others, regardless of any facts, findings or investigations.

The ostensible reason this time involves immigrant votes already prohibited by law, but the subtext seems to discourage voting among minority groups in urban areas, to halt mail ballots and to intimidate voter turnout in Democratic areas.

Media Matters argues that a plot is underway in which Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence, aided by recently hired right-wing journalist John Solomon, is seeking to disclose documents purporting to show significant foreign interference in past elections. Trump would use that theory as the “predicate” to declare a “national emergency” and try to seize control of the elections in November.

Widespread Skirmishes

Meanwhile, the legal front is quite active with dozens of lawsuits playing out in the courts and other Justice Department actions:

Voter Registration Threats. Trump’s Justice Department has sent threatening letters to all state election officials warning that they could face criminal prosecution over possible noncitizen voting, escalating the administration’s pressure campaign even after courts have repeatedly rejected its effort to seize unredacted voter rolls. The letters from Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, who leads the Civil Rights Division, demand that states explain within five days how they plan to comply with federal voter eligibility laws. Of course, the administration has offered no evidence of widespread noncitizen voting, already prohibited in elections for federal officials.

Despite the euphemisms, excuses and word dancing, it is voter blackmail and a clear abuse of presidential powers.

Indeed, the Trump administration has lost several recent court cases that would have required federal review of state voter rolls. Basically, judges have upheld Constitutional authorities for states to run elections, overruling the Justice Department arguments about any name-check against Homeland Security lists of undocumented migrants.

Meanwhile, Homeland Security threatened to withhold FEMA disaster emergency funds from states that do not comply with federal voter database reviews.

We can’t even agree – legally – on what federal database to states to check their voter rolls. In Washington this week, a judge said Homeland Security cannot force states to us its modified Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system to certify registered voters’ citizenship status and berated government lawyers for failing to notify her about a related case in Florida where a federal judge in Florida ruled the opposite for four Republican-led states — Florida, Iowa, Indiana and Ohio.

Challenge on Timing. The Justice Department is challenging provisions of the National Voter Registration Act’s 90-day quiet period, which generally bars systematic voter purges close to a federal election. A Justice memo claims that the 90-day cutoff “does not apply to the removal of non-citizens who were never eligible to register in the first place,” while acknowledging that the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals just said otherwise.

Trump Election Monitors. Dhillon announced the Justice Department will send federal election monitors to 15 jurisdictions in Arizona, Michigan, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia, all states where Trump has claimed election issues. State officials basically have called it intimidation, but said their procedures welcome monitoring, just not interference. In particular, Justice targeted three majority-Democratic cities with large minority populations in Michigan for the state’s upcoming primaries. All the targeted areas are all considered battleground states

Mail Ballots. In Massachusetts, federal District Judge Indira Talwani upheld a ruling that had blocked the U.S. Postal Service from implementing a Trump executive order not to deliver mail ballots in states that did not comply with voter registration reviews. It means the order is blocked in in 23 states and the District of Columbia. Another judge ruled that Trump cannot block absentee ballots before a full hearing can be held.

Election Workers. In Georgia, federal District Judge William Ray II, a Trump appointee, blocked Justice Department demands for the identities and personal information of thousands of people who helped run the 2020 election in Georgia’s Fulton County, calling the request “unreasonable.” He said the court would not enforce any subpoena.

SAVE America. Of course, Trump is obsessed by his Save America legislation that would require voters to show identification matching birth records at all elections, eliminate mail ballots and most absentees, and generally seek to limit voting registration, timing, balloting and counting. Though it seems unable to pass the Senate, Speaker Mike Johnson now says he will attach it to must-pass bills for national defense.

The elections for Congress in November are shaping up to be a vote on the ability of an angry president to control all elections.


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The empire strikes back

Today’s post is brought to you by my sponsor, Mechanize. They’re hiring junior software engineers at $300K/year base salary. Apply now!

* * *

Vaidas Urba is one of my most well-informed commenters. In recent weeks, he has been helping me to better understand how LLMs can provide useful feedback on my interpretation of stabilization policy during the 2008-09 recession. Today, I’ll present an evaluation of market monetarist claims about 2008 generated by the Fable LLM, which Vaidas sent me by email. I prefer to rely on Vaidas for this sort of exercise, as he has a much better idea than I do about how best to utilize LLMs.

Beyond the paywall, I will respond to the Fable output, offering my own point to view. To be clear, I view Fable’s evaluation of market monetarism to be of very high quality, better than what you’d get from most economists. In the end, I have substantial disagreement on a few points, but in every single case it is based on subtle questions of interpretation—none of the Fable responses are “dumb”. Do not interpret my responses as an implied critique of LLMs.

In the prompt below, think of the HANK model as a mainstream macro model that puts more weight on fiscal policy than does the market monetarist model. In a follow-up, I’ll show the results when Vaidas asked the same question from a HANK perspective, and not surprisingly the result was slightly less favorable. (Recall that LLMs are somewhat obsequious.) Future posts will also look at what happens when Fable is asked to look at both responses, and see which one it liked best. We will also examine what happens when Fable is asked to predict where I would disagree with its analysis.

This was Vaidas’s prompt:

You are a discussant preparing for macroeconomics seminar. The topic of the seminar is the thesis:

Market monetarist policy prescriptions would have been more impactful mitigating the severity of Great Recession compared to the policy prescriptions of HANK [Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian] models.

Identify and explain the top 5 arguments in favor of the thesis. Identify and explain the top 5 arguments opposing the thesis. Based on the arguments, provide your ultimate verdict with a reasoned justification.

Because the Fable response is a bit long, I will not indent the output:

Arguments for the thesis

1. Timing: the severity was locked in before fiscal tools could arrive. The catastrophic quarters were 2008Q3–2009Q2. The Fed held rates at 2% on September 16, 2008 — two days after Lehman — citing inflation risk even as TIPS breakevens collapsed. An NGDP level target would have mandated aggressive easing by mid-2008, while 200bp of conventional space remained. ARRA wasn’t signed until February 2009, after the worst of the collapse; expectations-driven monetary policy acts through markets in days, while fiscal transfers face legislative and disbursement lags.

2. Level targeting mobilizes expectations automatically. Under NGDPLT, any shortfall implies faster expected catch-up growth, which raises current spending — bygones aren’t bygones. The proof of concept is FDR’s 1933 devaluation (Temin–Wigmore; Eggertsson 2008), where a regime shift reversed deflationary expectations almost overnight. A credible NGDP commitment in 2008 could have prevented the collapse in nominal spending expectations that converted a housing correction into the Great Recession.

3. Monetary offset makes fiscal-first prescriptions second-order. The 2013 test case: sequestration plus the payroll-tax expiry (~2.5% of GDP consolidation) coincided with steady growth because QE3 offset it — as Sumner and Beckworth predicted against mainstream Keynesian forecasts of contraction. If the monetary regime pins down aggregate nominal spending, HANK-style transfers are hostage to the Fed’s reaction function; fixing the regime is logically prior.

4. NGDP stabilization treats the debt problem HANK identifies — at the root. Debts are nominal, so the ~8–10% NGDP shortfall from trend crushed borrowers’ incomes against fixed obligations: exactly the Fisher/Mian–Sufi amplification mechanism. Sheedy (2014) shows NGDP targeting functions as optimal risk-sharing between debtors and creditors in incomplete markets. Preventing the nominal income collapse beats compensating households after balance sheets implode.

5. Scale and feasibility. The nominal shortfall exceeded $1 trillion; transfers of that size were politically impossible (the ~$800bn ARRA was a bruising fight, and stimulus appetite died after 2010), whereas the Fed’s balance sheet requires no appropriation. And as real-time advice, market monetarism actually existed in 2008–09; HANK models (Kaplan–Moll–Violante, 2018) were formalized only years later.

Arguments against the thesis

1. HANK microfounds away the market monetarist transmission mechanism. Once at the ZLB (December 2008), NGDPLT works almost entirely through expectations of future policy — precisely the channel HANK discounts. McKay–Nakamura–Steinsson (2016) show forward guidance loses most of its power when constrained households respond to current cash flow rather than promises. The thesis leans on the one channel the rival framework shows is weak.

2. MPC heterogeneity makes targeted transfers mechanically potent. Roughly a third of households are hand-to-mouth, including the “wealthy hand-to-mouth” (Kaplan–Violante 2014), and the 2008 rebate studies (Parker et al.) confirm high spending responses among them. Transfers and UI extensions deliver purchasing power directly, while monetary easing routed through channels that were broken in 2008–09: refinancing blocked for underwater borrowers, impaired bank lending, and wealth effects accruing to low-MPC households (Auclert’s redistribution channel).

3. The shock was a balance-sheet/financial shock, not merely nominal. Mian and Sufi show consumption collapsed first in high-leverage counties — before Lehman and before NGDP fell — implying causation ran from household balance sheets to spending to NGDP. A promised NGDP path cannot recapitalize a bank in October 2008 or fix an underwater mortgage; debt relief and targeted transfers address the actual shock rather than its nominal symptom.

4. Credibility: the “concrete steps” problem. At zero rates, hitting an NGDP level path requires the public to believe in instruments whose measured effects were modest (Woodford 2012; Eggertsson–Woodford irrelevance results) and whose promises face time inconsistency — future FOMCs must willingly tolerate overshooting. Japan’s persistent undershooting even after 2013’s dramatic regime shift illustrates the limits. A transfer check requires no beliefs; it clears.

5. The 2020–21 natural experiment vindicates the HANK playbook. COVID policy was HANK at scale — direct transfers and expanded UI — and nominal demand fully recovered (and overshot) within 18 months, versus NGDP never regaining its trend after 2008 despite QE1–3 and guidance. Cross-sectional multiplier evidence (Nakamura–Steinsson 2014; Chodorow-Reich) supports multipliers above one at the ZLB, which also weakens the 2013 monetary-offset story: with the Fed pinned at zero, it wasn’t offsetting so much as independently easing.

Verdict

I narrowly accept the thesis — but on more limited grounds than market monetarists claim. The decisive consideration is what “severity” means: it was determined in roughly three quarters, during which (a) the Fed still had conventional ammunition and committed a documented, avoidable expectations error, and (b) no politically feasible fiscal package could have arrived fast enough or large enough to offset a trillion-dollar nominal collapse. An NGDP level target operating in mid-2008 plausibly truncates the collapse itself, and by stabilizing nominal incomes it would have blunted the very debt-deflation amplification HANK emphasizes. Prevention dominates treatment for this particular counterfactual.

But the margin is thin and conditional. The strongest opposing argument — that HANK undermines the expectations channel the whole market monetarist edifice rests on — bites hard once the ZLB was reached, and it’s why the verdict flips if the question were instead about engineering the fastest recovery from 2009 onward, where the 2020–21 evidence favors the HANK playbook decisively. The honest synthesis is that the frameworks answer different questions: market monetarism specifies the right nominal regime; HANK specifies realistic transmission and incidence. The optimal counterfactual policy is NGDPLT as the anchor plus HANK-informed automatic fiscal stabilizers as insurance for exactly the moments when expectations channels fail — which suggests the thesis is right about 2008, but for reasons that make it a poor guide as a general rule.

* * *

OK, this is me again. Although Fable suggested that it narrowly accepted the market monetarist thesis, I don’t believe it accepted the core claims of market monetarism. Below the paywall, I’ll respond to a number of specific points.

Read more

Storm clouds gather over America’s financial supremacy

Its payments firms may be the first casualties

I have never been working class

I grew up in the 1980s in a small house with only one bathroom shared between four people. The floor was linoleum. There was a carport instead of a garage, and we had one beat-up used Toyota Tercel hatchback. I don’t remember when we got our first color TV, but when I was young we had a black-and-white one that my grandmother gave us. Our furniture was all second-hand and we kept the couches covered up with worn old blankets.

When I was young, I mowed lawns for money. As a high school kid, I signed up to pick cotton by hand (!!) for an agricultural research project at Texas A&M University, for minimum wage1. I have also worked as a cashier. Twice in my life, I have been a member of a labor union, and I have marched in a strike.

I have never once considered myself part of the working class.

Why not? Because I have never thought of class as being defined by a present snapshot of someone’s lifestyle or material circumstances. Instead, I always thought of class as being about someone’s potential. And I grew up always knowing that my economic potential went far beyond the rather humble circumstances of my early childhood.

For one thing, my family was upwardly mobile. My grandparents could probably be called “working class” in their youth — my grandmother worked in a sweatshop as a teenager, my grandfather wore cardboard in his soles because his family couldn’t afford shoes. But after World War 2, thanks to the GI Bill and rapid economic growth, my ancestors advanced into the middle class, with jobs like optometrist, athletic coach, and registered nurse. My father had a PhD and a tenure-track academic job that promised to pay a lot more after a decade of work. We weren’t rocketing up the income distribution, but we were clearly climbing.

Our humble lifestyle in the early and mid 1980s reflected this future orientation. Our family income was probably around the 35th-38th percentile,2 but this was because we were a one-earner family. My mother chose to spend the first seven years of my life as a housewife — which she did in order to make sure my sister and I got a thorough, accelerated education. We lived an abstemious life in part because we saved as much money as we could.

What were we saving for? My college education, and my sister’s. We were smart kids; we knew we would go to good schools, and we did.3 We knew our college educations would allow us to get good jobs that paid more than our parents ever made. And we were right.

As for the union membership, I was part of the grad student instructors’ union at the University of Michigan, and the professors’ union at Stony Brook. When I marched in a strike in 2008 to secure a raise and health benefits, I was already getting paid to complete a PhD that would eventually increase my earning power even more. Even as I scarfed free food from charcuterie boards at departmental events to save money, I was building up my future earning power at a rapid clip.

Class in some countries is about the past; you can be a shabby aristocrat if your grandfather was the Earl of Whatevershire. In American policy discussions, class is often implicitly about the present — where you lie in the income and wealth distributions this year. But on some level, everyone knows that class in America is really about the future.

Milton Friedman had a theory that sort of gets at this idea, in fact. It’s called the Permanent Income Hypothesis. “Permanent income” is the income you can expect to make over the course of your life. If you’re a shabby grad student living off of cup ramen, your current income is low, but your permanent income is high, because you know you’re probably going to make a lot of money in the future.4

But class in America isn’t just about the money you will make in the future; it’s about the money you could make if you wanted. I know schoolteachers who live modern middle-class lifestyles despite having graduated from the best schools in the country. They could have gone to work for companies and made decently big bucks, but they preferred a more laid-back lifestyle. Whether their children should count as middle class or upper class is an interesting question, but they themselves are clearly the American equivalent of Europe’s shabby aristocrats, because they forsook the upper-class lifestyle voluntarily.

Meanwhile, there are millions upon millions of Americans for whom working in high-paying salaried jobs was just never an option, and never will be. They will spend their entire careers driving long hours in a truck, or stocking shelves at a store, or installing smoke alarms in people’s houses, simply because this is the best they can do.

This explains at least part of why most low-income Americans traditionally consider themselves middle class. They expect to be middle-class at some point; they don’t think they’ll be trapped driving a truck or stocking a shelf forever.5 And it could also explain why the number of Americans calling themselves “lower class” rose in the 2000s and 2010s, as growth in incomes temporarily stagnated and the potential for rapid downward mobility became clearer after the financial crisis:

Source: Gallup

I’m being very approximate here, of course, and I’m speaking for the country more than I probably should. In fact, America has less class consciousness than many other societies, and when we do talk about the idea, there’s rarely agreement on what it should mean. I wrote about the contested nature of class in American society two years ago:

But I’m speaking from my own personal experience because I think it illustrates something important about class in America. Although we disagree about what the concept should mean, most of us feel deeply uncomfortable with a notion of class that ignores future possibilities. When we see a guy proudly wear a United Auto Workers jacket even though his only UAW experience was as a grad student instructor at Harvard University, something about it feels deeply inauthentic:

There’s nothing wrong with this, of course. It’s not fake; the UAW really does include grad student unions these days. And MacKay could easily be doing this not out of rank political opportunism, but from a sincere desire to express solidarity with union workers from all walks of life.

And yet Evan MacKay is really not in the same boat as people who stand on an assembly line, even if those people make more money than he does. He could, if he wanted, go work in private equity and live in a mansion on Cape Cod. Your typical UAW member could not do that. There’s a sense in which his jacket’s implicit claim of “we’re all in this together” papers over that harsh reality.

Progressives have had an extremely tough time appealing to Americans with low incomes and low education levels. Decades ago, those people tended to vote for Democrats; in 2024, they broke solidly for Donald Trump. Even as they’ve become more and more progressive, the Dems have become the party of well-educated high earners:

Even people who identify themselves as “working class” have been abandoning the Democrats:

Joe Biden tried very hard to win over labor unions, but the Teamsters — once a Democratic stalwart — refused to endorse him.

The socialist faction might style itself a friend of the working class, but it faces the same problem. Zohran Mamdani won his mayoral race thanks to the support of higher-income, educated voters, while his defeated “establishment” opponent did better with lower-income people, Blacks, and Hispanics. Other socialist victories have seen a similar pattern.

This is not actually a new problem. A century ago, in The Road to Wigan Pier, George Orwell complained bitterly that the British socialists of his day were middle-class intellectual elites who failed to win over the working class because they were completely out of touch:

The first thing that must strike any outside observer is that Socialism, in its developed form is a theory confined entirely to the middle classes. The typical Socialist is not, as tremulous old ladies imagine, a ferocious-looking working man with greasy overalls and a raucous voice. He is either a youthful snob-Bolshevik who in five years' time will quite probably have made a wealthy marriage and been converted to Roman Catholicism; or, still more typically, a prim little man with a white-collar job, usually a secret teetotaller and often with vegetarian leanings, with a history of Nonconformity behind him, and, above all, with a social position which he has no intention of forfeiting. [emphasis mine]

Half a century later, Barbara and John Ehrenreich wrote something similar about the American left in their essay on “the professional-managerial class”. The “PMC”, as it has become known, was beginning to dominate the political left even in 1977; today, it arguably forms the Democratic Party’s most important voter base. The DSA faction that’s now becoming more influential within the party is disproportionately drawn from this class — 80% of DSA members had college degrees in 2021, and more than a third had postgraduate degrees (more than twice the national average).

Although they might not have realized it, what the Ehrenreichs were describing was a result of the rising economic importance of human capital. The “youthful snob-Bolshevik[s]” Orwell described in the 1930s were few in number, but the growth of knowledge industries has made this group of people far more numerous — and far more influential in our culture and our politics.

Because of its Marxist inheritance, the idea of the working class is very important to American socialists. But that’s been increasingly hard to square with the fact that voters with lower income and lower education have been steadily drifting away from the Democrats, and form relatively little of the DSA’s membership. One response has been for some socialists to paint themselves as the actual working class. This is a less charitable interpretation of Evan MacKay’s UAW jacket, and it’s also something that has come up in casual conversation. This is from my post back in 2024:

In January 2017, I was at a house party in Berkeley. People were discussing why Hillary Clinton had lost to Donald Trump, and one woman — a law student at the University of California — declared that it was because Clinton had ignored the “working class”. I asked her to describe someone in the working class. She imagined a “sex worker” who had a bunch of student loans and a humanities degree that she wasn’t able to use… I had expected her to describe a unionized auto worker or steelworker or a stereotypical Midwestern guy in a hard hat,…I was utterly unprepared for her to instead describe someone from her own educated progressive social circles…To this law student, the “working class” was simply those of her friends who were most down on their luck.

But on some level, I think this just doesn’t ring true, even within socialist circles. Class in America is just too deeply connected with earning potential and human capital; most people can’t really bring themselves to believe that someone with a diploma from a good school is “working class”, even if they happen to be pulling an unlivable wage as an adjunct professor and sleeping in their car at the moment.

So socialists are always on the lookout for champions who seem more authentically working class. They thought they found such a champion in Graham Platner, who recently dropped out of his Maine Senate race due to rape allegations. This is from a New York Times story about how Platner was recruited:

Last July, in a small town in coastal Maine, three progressive, self-styled recruiters of economic populists showed up at the blue-shingled house of Graham Platner, a little-known oyster farmer and Marine veteran who lived largely off government benefits…They knew his name from local labor organizers and activists, and they had watched a video on the internet of him talking about oysters. Struck by his left-leaning ideology, his working-class affect and his gravelly voice, they became convinced that he could win a Senate seat in Maine — and quickly persuaded Mr. Platner of the same…The recruiters — Dan Moraff, Leanne Fan and Morris Katz — told Mr. Platner he was “the one,” a “hero of the movement,” “a historical figure” who could be “leading a revolution,” according to half a dozen people with knowledge of their conversations.

Is Platner actually working class? You can argue it either way. He went to a good college but dropped out due to psychological issues. He’s the son of a lawyer and an architect, but failed to make much money with his oyster farming business, and mostly lived on welfare benefits. He doesn’t fit cleanly into the kind of class categories I described above.

But the people who picked him do! Dan Moraff and Morris Katz are both educated scions of rich families — Moraff’s ancestor founded the company that became Toys “R” Us — while Leanne Fan is a sociology PhD student. If the NYT’s reporting is correct, they appear to have picked Platner based entirely on stereotypes and vibes — he seemed rough and tough and down on his luck, so they assumed he was a real working class guy who could connect with other working class guys. This seems to have convinced them that Platner was a messianic figure who could bring wayward working-class voters back to the Democratic fold.

As many people have said, if Trump is “a poor person’s idea of a rich person,” Platner is basically the opposite — a rich person’s idea of a working-class person.

This episode doesn’t make me particularly optimistic about Democrats’ ability to reconnect with their rapidly vanishing blue-collar base. I don’t think it’s impossible, of course. But it would probably require moderating on social issues — DEI, immigration, etc. — instead of just running candidates that pattern-match to the kind of people that bullied rich lefty kids back in junior high.

The Platner saga also makes me a bit pessimistic about American society as a whole. Although we don’t talk about class much, it’s separating us more and more, and the cultural gap is now so big that lots of Americans seem unable to even imagine what Americans from other social classes are like.

The integrating institutions that once pushed us together across class lines — church, the military, schools in mixed-income neighborhoods — have waned in importance. College has grown to fill some of that void, but less than half of the country is really prepared to handle the rigors of a college education, and so it ends up dividing our society more than it unites it. Mass media has fragmented into the millions of little social verticals that make up the internet. We’ve sorted ourselves geographically — knowledge workers live together in progressive urban enclaves on the coasts, while blue-collar types inhabit the small towns and down-market suburbs.

I read Tocqueville, and I miss the roiling, fluid, egalitarian young democracy that I never knew. I think back to my childhood, in a little house on a dusty side street in a small Texas town, and I feel like I can just barely recall the fading embers of that stubbornly classless democracy. Something happened between then and now. We let the Old World sneak up on us.


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1

In case you’re wondering what picking cotton by hand is like, it sucks. Other than my teenage friends and myself, the only people willing to do it were illegal immigrants from Mexico. Working alongside illegal immigrants, knowing that it was just a summer experience for me but would be their job for the rest of their life, gave me a deep respect for illegal immigrant laborers. Yes, they violated my country’s sovereign border, but they did it so that they could do backbreaking low-paid menial labor for their whole lives, just to feed their families back home. And they worked harder than my friends and I did, even knowing that their future would probably never get any better than that. Those are the people whose lives of backbreaking labor put cheap food on your table.

2

For households, it was more like the 45th percentile. My dad’s salary was almost twice the median personal income of the time. Part of the reason my childhood sounds a bit shabby is that the whole country was a lot poorer back then; one-bathroom houses without garages weren’t so unusual.

3

I went to Stanford; my sister got into Harvard but turned it down to go to the University of Michigan, because of my family’s quixotic belief that public schools are good. That turned out to be a very expensive decision on her part; Stanford, with its incredibly generous need-based financial aid policies, charged me zero tuition, while my sister had to pay out-of-state tuition despite a merit scholarship. Fortunately, my family had saved money, and so was able to pay for my sister’s college without making her take out student loans.

4

Friedman’s hypothesis turned out to be wrong — he thought only permanent income mattered for consumption, but it turns out that temporary ups and downs matter too. But expectations of future income are a factor that determines people’s current behavior, so Friedman’s intellectual effort wasn’t wasted.

5

For the upper-class and rich people who identify as “middle class”, it’s probably more of a combination of A) humility/social desirability bias, and B) the fact that they’re comparing themselves to other rich people in their social circles.

Postcards from Montréal, 2026

Postcards from Montréal, 2026

We were in Montréal recently. I made some postcards while we were there. This is the story I want to remember.

I had hoped to do more half-time sketches like the ones I made during the 2024 Euro Cup but circumstances were such that we often didn't arrive to watch a match until after the second half had already begun.

In the end I did have just enough googly eyes but, still, this piece remains unfinished.

This was actually day seven. So it goes.

This was actually day seventeen (but really it is all days). I also forgot to take a picture of it so this is the photo the person who received the postcard sent me.

I am still thinking about the postcard for day twelve. There is a postcard for day eighteen, which I finished on the way home, but I am trying to decide if it is stupid, pointlessly snarky or both. These two were not postcards sent to any one person in particular. Rather they were like postcards sent to the whole internet.

AI in an Age of Oligarchy

Today’s post is another installment in a series of posts about AI. AI is clearly a major technological shock, and it may take years before we fully understand its economic and social impacts. What we do know, however, is that this technological shock is occurring in the context of a pre-existing environment of extreme wealth and political inequality. And this pre-existing condition will magnify the downsides of the AI shock.

Imagine for a moment what might have happened if AI had arrived in the America of the 1950s or 1960s, when income and wealth inequality were very low by historical standards. In those days, the tax code was strongly progressive and industry regulation, including antitrust policy, was robust. Under those conditions it’s very likely that the destructive effects of AI would have been limited and contained.

Instead, however, AI is emerging in an American economy and society that are already strongly oligarchic, with enormous wealth and political influence in the hands of a handful of billionaires. The current concentration of wealth at the top is not only immensely greater than in the 50s or 60s, but is in fact far greater than during the Gilded Age. This state of affairs is both a cause and an effect of policies that benefit a tiny elite, such as low effective taxes on capital and high incomes, weak or nonexistent enforcement of worker protections and anti-trust, drastic reductions in programs that benefit ordinary Americans, and so on.

And in the context of a political and economic environment that is heavily tilted towards the hyper-wealthy, the negative impacts of AI will probably be larger than if they had appeared in a country with a more level playing field. That is,unless the very impact of AI leads to a much-needed pushback against American oligarchy.

So although AI is addressed in today’s primer, the content will mostly be about oligarchy rather than AI: documenting how America has changed since our politics turned right in the 1980s, and why wealth and power have become so concentrated. At the end of the post, however, I’ll speculate about how pre-exiting oligarchy will channel the potential of AI in destructive directions — and what we could do to change that.

Beyond the paywall I will address the following:

1. Economic oligarchy: The rise of the .0002%

2. The economics of oligarchy

3. The politics of extreme wealth

4. How oligarchy will shape AI’s impact

5. Paths for policy

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sqlite-utils 4.1

Release: sqlite-utils 4.1

The first dot-release since 4.0 a few days ago, introducing a number of minor new features.

  • sqlite-utils insert and sqlite-utils upsert now accept a --code option for providing a block of Python code (or a path to a .py file) that defines a rows() function or rows iterable of rows to insert, as an alternative to importing from a file. (#684)

sqlite-utils already had features that allow you to pass blocks of Python code as CLI arguments, for example this one for the sqlite-utils convert command:

sqlite-utils convert content.db articles headline '
def convert(value):
    return value.upper()'

Allowing blocks of code to generate new rows directly was on obvious extension of that pattern:

sqlite-utils insert data.db creatures --code '
def rows():
    yield {"id": 1, "name": "Cleo"}
    yield {"id": 2, "name": "Suna"}
' --pk id

A long-standing feature request which turned out to be a simple implementation.

  • New table.drop_index(name) method and sqlite-utils drop-index command for dropping an index by name. Both accept ignore=True/--ignore to ignore a missing index. (#626)
  • sqlite-utils query can now read the SQL query from standard input by passing - in place of the query, for example echo "select * from dogs" | sqlite-utils query dogs.db -. (#765)

Two more small features. I had Codex review all open issues and highlight the easiest ones!

  • sqlite-utils upsert can now infer the primary key of an existing table, so --pk can be omitted when upserting into a table that already has a primary key.

Another Codex suggestion, an obvious missing CLI feature from a Python library improvement that shipped in the 4.0 release.

  • table.transform() and table.transform_sql() now accept strict=True or strict=False to change a table’s SQLite strict mode. Omitting the option preserves the existing mode. (#787)
  • The sqlite-utils transform command now accepts --strict and --no-strict to change a table’s strict mode. (#787)

These two were inspired by Prefer STRICT tables in SQLite by Evan Hahn, which did the rounds on Hacker News today. Evan pointed out that:

Unfortunately, I don’t think there’s a way to ALTER a table to make it strict. I think you have to copy the data out of the non-strict table into the strict one.

That's exactly what the sqlite-utils transform mechanism does, so I extended it to add the ability to switch tables from strict to non-strict and vice-versa.

Here's the GPT-5.6 Sol xhigh Codex transcript I used to implement those new strict table features. One of the most useful prompts I ran was this one:

use uv run python -c and manually exercise the new .transform(strict=) option, see if you can find any edge-cases or bugs

Effectively telling the model to manually test its work, outside of the automated tests it had already written. This turned up two minor issues that we then fixed.

Tags: projects, python, sqlite, sqlite-utils, annotated-release-notes, ai-assisted-programming


The will to power will return

In the 1980s, France started 43 nuclear reactors across 14 sites. On average, each reactor took just seven years to build. Forty years later, all but one of these reactors are still running, and they continue to produce nearly half of France's electricity.

Can you imagine France doing something like this today? Or any other country in the West for that matter? The past is a foreign country. But why is this? Why did the West lose the will to power?

A popular meme would explain it as the inescapable good-times-hard-times circle: Hard times (WWII) create good men, good men create good times (Les Trente Glorieuses), good times create weak men (The End of History), weak men create hard times (now).

The Fourth Turning by Strauss and Howe offers a theory for this wheel of time by tracing the last five centuries to the same four recurring phases: High, Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis.

It was the good men of France's hard times who planned the country's incredible nuclear build out. This hero generation, as Strauss and Howe calls them, planted the trees of power that would provide shade for several generations to come. It seems inconceivable to expect similar bold plans and action from the current cohort of the European political establishment.

But The Fourth Turning argues this was ever thus. The decline that always sets in once we enter the unraveling phase of the century (or saeculum, as the book calls it) inevitably leads to a crisis. We're on the cusp/in one of those right now. So pessism is perhaps a rational response.

And yet, the night is darkest before the dawn, and the current Crisis is likely to lead to another High, if the past five centuries and Strauss and Howe's theory are any guide. If so, we should expect the next hero generation to reject this managed decline of our present turning, and once again taking up the mantle of ambition.

The circle of the saeculum is both a prophecy and a roadmap. We're not supposed to live like this forever: weak, ineffectual. This too shall pass. And when it does, once the Crisis becomes another High, we'll marvel at the time wasted, but with the pity due a pathetic period of the past, not from within an eternal prison of decline.

We just have to make it out of the current Crisis alive. The last one brought us a total war. Would be nice if we could get back to the High without something quite as devastating, but don't bet on it.

good-times.jpeg

w/e 2026-07-12

I started the summer’s scything this week. It’s the fifth consecutive year we’ve let the lawn grow into a meadow and then I’ve scythed some/all of it over July and August. This year I have a deadline of the end of July to have enough mown to put up a marquee for a birthday party. Jeopardy!

These days I’m free of the tyranny of the alarm clock but I tend to wake up early in the summer anyway so I’ve been able to get some scything in before it gets too hot (we’ve had afternoon temperatures up to 32ºC again this week). This week I’ve usually been up before six, had some breakfast, then done 45 minutes of scything before sitting in the shade, letting the sweat cool, while drinking coffee.

I had a slow start this year because I couldn’t get the blade sharp and couldn’t work out why. I was starting to think we’d have to resort to the strimmer. I’d been peening the blade (hitting it with a hammer on a jig) and then honing it with stones, but it just didn’t cut well.

After consulting the internet I realised I’d forgotten how hard I needed to hit the jig to have an effect on the blade’s edge. The couple of YouTube videos I’d watched to remind myself were all, “use a relaxed grip,” and “let the hammer do the work.” But after really whacking the thing all along its edge, twice, I could see the difference and, at last, it could cut again.

A photo of a scythe blade with long grass in the background.

After that, five morning sessions scything, and I’ve mown about 270m² at an average speed of 1.2m²/minute, which is not bad for me. I’m not sure how much there is to go if I do the whole meadow. Maybe it’s up to 1,000m² in total?

I haven’t done much cardio for the past month or so, what with the heat and my injured toe, so this deadline is getting me back into it despite the weather at 7am still being too hot. Average heart rate around 133BPM, maximum 154BPM, on my last go.

A photo of several windrows of cut long grass in the early morning sunshine.

§ At the start of the week my oldest friend D came to stay for a couple of days. We went to Hay-on-Wye and browsed a few bookshops, I bought a couple of books, and had lunch. Tooo hot to walk around much though. It’s probably not true to say that over the past year I’ve spent more time browsing second-hand bookshops than I have actually reading books but I’m not sure how not true it is.

Then we went to my third Weirdshire gig which was much busier than the previous ones, presumably because both groups were local to Hereford, so had plenty of support from friends, family and fans. Support was Celtic Vagabond – one guy on vocals, guitar and banjo, and another on synth and whistles – who made a good psych-folk-rock racket. The main act was Sproatly Smith, a seven-piece who were often a bit too whimsically folky for me but occasionally picked things up a bit. Another interesting live night out.


§ This is not important news but our toaster – which I bought nearly 25 years ago – stopped working this week: it won’t stay down. I’ve disassembled it and determined that the magnet which holds things down is still functioning as it should but, for reasons I can’t figure out, the contraption isn’t being held in place. Frustrating and I can’t see a solution.


§ Every few months I look at the basic traffic stats for the Pepys site and note them down. Recently the monthly page views have leapt up to 350,000 from around 120,000. Most of this is from Singapore and China, whose populations presumably haven’t suddenly discovered a love of a 17th century London diarist. Mythic Beasts do, I believe, block a bunch of dodgy traffic, and Cloudflare’s Analytics “exclude bots”, but clearly plenty gets through.

Having just checked the stats for my own site, what you’re reading now, it’s even more extreme: 193,00 page views in the past month, 169,000 of which are from those two countries. Grrr.


§ On Wednesday we went down to the church for the annual visit from a touring theatre group who put on a production of Pickwick Papers in the old abbey’s walled garden. It’s a beautiful setting although the audience of rural (nearly all) pensioners with their elaborate picnics is one of this area’s “I don’t belong here” scenes for me.

I always admire the energy of the performers, five of them taking on multiple roles in heavy costumes in the summer evening sunshine, but I soon lost all interest in the play. It was all a bit panto (derogatory) and I had no interest in the episodic antics of these bumbling men. Such an odd choice, unfortunately.


§ Those Flickr app changes had me once again wondering what the alternative is, just as I do whenever it comes to paying the annual Flickr Pro fee (£74 last time). I use Instagram (despite the awful Meta-ness) to share the same photos with friends because almost no one I know posts to Flickr these days. I treat Insta as entirely ephemeral, so Flickr is more of a “permanent” online place for pictures.

I’ve written all the code for mirroring my Flickr photos on a Django website so making a nicer front-end and adding an interface for uploading new photos is feasible. But do I want to run another Django website? Or even host them on this one? Could I run something like the PHP-based Lychee on shared hosting? I don’t love its design.

Ultimately even if self-hosting photos was free I guess it’s worth the Flickr cost to not have to think about maintaining a site. These days “not having to think about it” is my number one criteria for stuff on the web. So long as Flickr keeps going and they don’t screw things up…


§ We watched Mission: Impossible II this week and it was pretty bad. Would have been better if they’d cut everything except the few minutes of Anthony Hopkins doing some acting.


§ The toe is still getting better and only aches when I put more weight on it, like when I swing a scythe several hundred times each morning.


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Sunday assorted links

1. NYT overview of Foucault.

2. Solar mirrors to turn night into day? (NYT)

3. How does the butterfly retain the memories of the caterpillar?

4. The Taliban declares war on smartphones.

5. Links from Sam Enright.

6. Why are U.S. ambulance rides so costly?

7. Richard Hanania on The Sopranos.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Top-Rated Sleep Gummies: 5 Best Edibles for Relaxation and Restful

It’s 1 a.m. You’ve counted every sheep in the flock, and the melatonin gummy you took an hour ago has done little more than leave a faint chalky aftertaste. For many people, that’s the moment they begin looking beyond traditional sleep supplements and discover a new generation of nighttime gummies designed with cannabinoids and complementary wellness ingredients.

Over the past few years, sleep gummies have evolved from simple melatonin-based formulas into more sophisticated blends featuring CBN (cannabinol) , a cannabinoid being studied for its potential role in relaxation and sleep support. Many products also combine CBN with ingredients such as L-tryptophan , vitamin B6 , botanical extracts, CBD , or low doses of THC , depending on the intended experience. Rather than relying solely on synthetic melatonin, some formulations are designed to support the body’s natural sleep-related processes through multiple complementary ingredients.

With dozens of brands now competing in this space, choosing the right product can be challenging. Ingredient quality, cannabinoid ratios, third-party testing, and formulation philosophy often matter more than marketing claims or flavor alone.

In this guide, we’ve compared five of the most established cannabinoid sleep gummy brands available today. Each product is evaluated using practical criteria that matter to consumers, including cannabinoid content, ingredient transparency, the presence or absence of melatonin, third-party laboratory testing, overall formulation quality, and value. Whether you’re looking for a THC-enhanced nighttime gummy or a melatonin-free cannabinoid option, this comparison will help you make a more informed decision.

Quick answer:  TribeTokes ranks #1 for its multi-pathway formula — Delta 9 THC or CBD paired with a 20mg CBN dose, L-Tryptophan, and B6 — offered in both intoxicating and THC-free versions. Charlotte’s Web is the pick for a CBN-only, no-THC formula from a long-established brand. Cornbread Hemp wins on USDA organic certification and whole-plant sourcing. Slumber stands out for a fast-acting formula aimed at sleep onset specifically. Koi is the value pick for buyers who want a full-spectrum option without a deep dive into formulation details.

1. TribeTokes  — Best Overall for Formula Design and Flexibility

Photograph illustrating this sponsored article

TribeTokes CBN gummies for sleep  are built around what the brand calls a multi-pathway approach: instead of relying on one ingredient to do all the work, each gummy combines a cannabinoid for sedation (CBN), a cannabinoid or trace THC for relaxation, and the raw materials — L-Tryptophan and Vitamin B6 — that the body converts into its own melatonin. No synthetic melatonin is added.

The lineup breaks down into a few formats depending on whether you want a psychoactive effect or not:

  • Best THC sleep gummies  — 10mg Delta 9 THC and 20mg CBN per gummy, plus L-Tryptophan and B6. This is the higher-effect option, and because it contains Delta 9 THC, it can trigger a positive result on a standard drug test.
  • CBD gummies for sleep and anxiety  — the THC-free version of the same formula, swapping CBD isolate in for THC. Won’t produce a high and is formulated not to trigger a standard urinalysis.
  • CBN Live Resin Gummies  — a CBD-boosted, full-spectrum version built around 600mg of total CBN across the batch, aimed at buyers who want a fuller cannabinoid and terpene profile.

A few things push TribeTokes to the top of this list specifically:

Photograph illustrating this sponsored article
  • Dose transparency.  The 20mg CBN figure is a real, stated dose per gummy — not a proprietary blend hiding the actual milligram count, which is a common issue elsewhere in the sleep-gummy category.
  • A THC-free path to the same formula.  Buyers who need to stay drug-test-safe aren’t stuck choosing a weaker product; the CBD + CBN version uses the identical supporting-ingredient stack.
  • No synthetic melatonin.  The L-Tryptophan + B6 approach is aimed at supporting the body’s own melatonin pathway rather than adding an external dose, which is the mechanism most likely to avoid next-morning grogginess — a common complaint with high-melatonin gummies.
  • Clean, consistent ingredient base.  Vegan, no artificial colors or flavors, organic cane sugar and tapioca syrup as the base, third-party lab tested with published COAs per batch.
  • Range across intensity levels.  Between the CBD-only, CBD+CBN, and THC+CBN gummies  options, TribeTokes covers a wider spread of tolerance levels and legal/testing needs than most single-formula competitors.

2. Charlotte’s Web — Best CBN-Only, No-THC Option

Charlotte’s Web is one of the longest-running names in hemp, and its Stay Asleep gummies take a narrower approach than TribeTokes: 20mg of CBN isolate per serving, no melatonin, and specifically no CBD combined in (the brand’s own guidance suggests CBD and CBN together may not improve results, based on internal research). It’s built for people who fall asleep fine but wake up partway through the night, rather than for sleep onset. Vegan, gluten-free, and third-party tested with published COAs, with the brand’s broader Sleep Gummies line adding CBD and melatonin for a separate onset-focused product.

3. Cornbread Hemp — Best for Organic Certification

Cornbread Hemp’s differentiator is sourcing, not cannabinoid engineering. The gummies use a full-spectrum, USDA-certified organic hemp extract processed through the brand’s flower-only extraction method, which means trace CBN and CBC show up naturally rather than being dosed in deliberately — a meaningfully lower CBN level than a dedicated sleep formula like TribeTokes’ or Charlotte’s Web’s. No melatonin, vegan, pectin-based rather than gelatin. The tradeoff is that buyers looking for a specific, verified CBN milligram count won’t find one here; this is a “whole-plant, trust the process” formula rather than a precision-dosed one.

4. Slumber — Best for Fast Sleep Onset

Slumber’s Pure Sleep and Deep Zzzs gummies use a full-spectrum extract plus a proprietary “Stay Asleep Complex,” with a 20mg CBN dose and a formula the brand markets as fast-acting — onset in roughly 5 to 15 minutes rather than the 30- to 90-minute window typical of edibles. Slumber has also run an internal, self-funded sleep study with several hundred participants; it wasn’t independently peer-reviewed, but it’s more real-world data than most brands in this category publish. Good option if slow onset is specifically what’s been a problem with other edibles.

5. Koi — Best Budget-Friendly Full-Spectrum Option

Koi’s Complete Nighttime Rest gummies use a full-spectrum extract, giving them a broader natural cannabinoid profile than isolate-based competitors, at a lower price point than most of the brands on this list. It’s a reasonable entry point for buyers who want to try a full-spectrum sleep gummy without committing to a premium price tag, though it doesn’t carry the dose transparency or organic certification that the brands ranked above it offer.

How to Actually Compare These

Photograph illustrating this sponsored article
  • Check the CBN dose, not just the marketing copy.  “CBN-powered” means very little without a milligram number. TribeTokes, Charlotte’s Web, and Slumber all state a specific dose (20mg); full-spectrum-only formulas like Cornbread Hemp and Koi typically contain CBN at trace, naturally occurring levels instead.
  • Decide if you want THC in the mix.  THC-inclusive formulas (TribeTokes’ THC + CBN line, Slumber, some Koi products) can trigger a positive drug test. If that’s a concern, look for an explicitly THC-free option — TribeTokes’ CBD + CBN line and Charlotte’s Web’s Stay Asleep gummies are both built for that.
  • Melatonin or none?  Synthetic melatonin can help some people fall asleep faster but is associated with next-day grogginess for others. Every brand on this list except Charlotte’s Web’s core Sleep line and some competitors’ formulas skips synthetic melatonin in favor of L-Tryptophan/B6 or botanical support instead.
  • Look for a batch-specific COA , not a generic “we test our products” claim. All five brands here publish third-party lab results, which is the baseline worth insisting on regardless of which one you pick.

The Bottom Line

If you want the most configurable, dose-transparent option — with a real choice between a THC-free and a THC-inclusive version of the same formula — TribeTokes is the strongest overall pick on this list. If your priority is a specific niche (no-THC CBN isolate, USDA organic sourcing, the fastest possible onset, or the lowest price), Charlotte’s Web, Cornbread Hemp, Slumber, and Koi each earn their spot for a specific kind of sleeper.


CLICK HERE TO DONATE IN SUPPORT OF DCREPORT’S NONPROFIT MISSION

The post Top-Rated Sleep Gummies: 5 Best Edibles for Relaxation and Restful appeared first on DCReport.org.

In Case You Missed It…

…a week of Mad Biologist posts:

Trump’s Red Card

Oddly Enough, the HR Women Were Right About Platner

If Platner Is Replaced, His Replacement Must Pass The Litmus Test of Being Willing to Govern

A Bad Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

The enemy in the war on drugs is no longer agriculture, but chemistry

 One drug future may be happening first in Estonia, hard on the Russian border.

The NYT has the story :

Estonia Won the War on Fentanyl. What Came Next Was Even Worse.
By 2018, fentanyl overdoses in Estonia had plummeted. But powerful new drugs are appearing fast, with the authorities racing to respond.
  By Azam Ahmed

“We wish we still had a fentanyl problem,” said Raigo Aas, the chief prosecutor for organized crime in Estonia.

"The first new drugs to arrive, known as nitazenes, sent mortality rates skyrocketing again, proving even more addictive and harder to treat or quit. New varieties keep popping up, too, some more than 40 times stronger than fentanyl.

...

"Exceedingly powerful substances are being churned out with such speed that the agencies created to stop them are baffled, racing to keep up. 

...

"Just as science has made plastics, medicines and foods phenomenally more varied and abundant, it has revolutionized illicit substances. Once grown in the soil, dependent on rain, sun and crop cycles, illicit drugs today are increasingly formulated in laboratories, with very few constraints.

"And with each iteration, the drugs grow more terrifying. It’s not just the overdoses and deaths they bring: Their incredible potency makes recovery much harder, deepening addiction and, by extension, the crisis it creates.

...

“We really thought the fentanyl period had taught us how to handle an opioid crisis,” said Kristin Mikko, a health coordinator in Estonia’s Ministry of Social Affairs. But the new drugs, she said, are “something different. They are so much more lethal.” 

 

and this:

"Yet cychlorphine was so new at the time that it wasn’t even illegal yet in Estonia; the authorities couldn’t charge him for it. The drug didn’t become banned in Estonia until this past spring.

“It makes our work harder,” Rait Pikaro, a former drug police head, said of the constantly shifting drug landscape. “It never stops.” 

 

 

The Trump Administration’s Threat to Scientific Research

In The Nationalization of American Science I warned that the Trump administration’s rewriting of the seemingly mundane Regulation for Federal Financial Assistance was a tremendous threat to America’s historically successful decentralized system of science funding. Many others are now sounding the alarm.

It’s not surprising that organizations like the AAAS oppose the rule, albeit with unusually strongly worded dissents:

This latest move is a brazen power grab by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to buck the will of Congress and the American people and will make future discoveries less likely. If this rule becomes final, Americans’ hopes for future cures, national security and economic strength will rely on the scientific sensibilities of the nation’s chief bureaucrat. Alzheimer’s disease will not be cured by a budget analyst from either political party.

But we are now seeing strong pushback from independent thinkers such as:

Grayson Logue writing at The Dispatch:

A sweeping new rule proposed by the Trump administration could remake how that money is awarded and give the president and his political appointees discretion to cancel funding or target recipients for virtually any reason—with little opportunity for recourse.

White House officials argue the new rule is necessary to assert more accountability over federal grantmaking, but observers fear the shift will expand opportunities for politicization, abuse, and even corruption for an administration that has already demonstrated a penchant for using the levers of the federal government to punish partisan enemies and reward ideological allies. 

Dan Drezner:

if I was trying to ruin American leadership in scientific research this is pretty much the kind of rule I would write…One of the genuine difficulties with observing the second Trump term is that the assault on state capacity and impartiality has been so multipronged that it is difficult to keep track of everything going on. But these proposed rule changes are monumental and catastrophic.

and Noah Smith:

MAGA’s attack on science is even worse than it looks…despite science’s overwhelming popularity and public trust, Trump and his administration are launching an unprecedented and devastating attack on American science — cutting funding, and forcing science projects to undergo ideological review by government commissars.

It may be that the Trump administration has pushed too far, but my real worry is that we are losing an equilibrium. Science was never completely independent of politics, of course, but even at the worst of times, funding was decentralized and the culture-war material that dominated the headlines was never more than a tiny fraction of the whole. Like an independent judiciary, independent science has been an American virtue. COVID policy, gender policy, and now the Trump administration’s weaponization of these mistakes may have destroyed that equilibrium.

As I wrote in my original post, we are adopting the loser policies of authoritarian nations but those policies are the norm elsewhere for a reason. Centralized control of science is the default because it serves the people in power of whatever party. Decentralization is the fragile exception—a historically unusual achievement that is easier to destroy than rebuild.

Addendum: And here is Andrew Gelman.

The post The Trump Administration’s Threat to Scientific Research appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Reading List 07/11/26

Venice: The Basin of San Marco on Ascension Day” by Canaletto, via the National Gallery of London.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at adults living with their parents, Samsung’s profits, Native American data centers, Puerto Rico’s electricity grid, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

Housekeeping items:

Housing and cities

The 21st Century Road to Housing Act becomes law after Trump declines to veto it. [NPR]

49% of adults under 30 in the US are now living with a parent, according to a recent Federal Reserve Survey. “...young people say that living at home in 2026 doesn’t carry the stigma it once did because of how unaffordable life has become. About 55% of young adults who moved back home said it was out of financial necessity, according to a spring survey by financial services firm Thrivent.” [WSJ]

Seattle has more empty downtown office space than any other major US city. [Seattle Times]

How the enormous success of TSMC has spurred development in the surrounding city of Hsinchu. “While the rest of Taiwan and much of East Asia are grappling with a sharp population decline, so many children have been born in Hsinchu in recent years that the schools cannot keep up. Public high schools in the area now admit only students with sufficiently high test scores, a practice that Ms. Lo and a group of mothers have protested. Those who do not make the cut must commute to another school district.” [NYT]

There was concern earlier this week that a New York highrise being renovated might collapse, after several columns began to severely buckle. Thankfully it looks like it’s been stabilized for now. “The massive renovation project at 219-235 E. 42nd Street — a conversion of the former Pfizer headquarters into about 1,600 apartments — was scrutinized Tuesday as construction workers had to be safely evacuated after the building began swaying. Damage to structural columns at the 21st floor is visible to the naked eye. Several nearby buildings were also evacuated as a precaution.” [CNN]

Last year New York City added more apartments — 38,682 units — than it has since 1965. This is still a pretty small number of units for a city New York’s size, to be honest: Austin added over 30,000 apartments in 2024. [WSJ]

CBRE released its 2026 look at US company headquarters relocations. California continues to lose headquarters, Texas continues to gain them. [CBRE]

Are rising insurance costs driving Americans to relocate from flood-prone areas? “High-flood-risk US counties — those classified in the top 10% for their share of homes that are very vulnerable to flooding — lost a net 63,357 domestic residents from mid-2024 to mid-2025, nearly double the outflow recorded over the previous 12-month period, according to an analysis released Wednesday by real estate brokerage Redfin. In 2024, flood-prone counties collectively posted a net population loss for the first time in five years.” [Bloomberg]

Manufacturing

Atomic Semi, the semiconductor startup famously started by Sam Zeloof after building microchips in his parents garage, rebrands as “Fab2.” “Fab2 designs and builds every tool in its fabs in-house, from pumps, valves, and gas lines to lithography and the vacuum chambers that house it. The company assembles those components into machines, the machines into complete fabs, and then aims to mass-produce the fabs themselves. It pairs the hardware with Studio, an in-browser, collaborative EDA tool for layout, schematic, and simulation work, previously branded as Atomic Studio.” [Tom’s Hardware]

The Economist on whether China got its hands on ASML’s EUV machines. “Impossible, says ASML. Europe’s most valuable company has told American officials that it knows the exact location of all 340 EUV machines it has produced, including 26 decommissioned ones. None is in China, it says. What is more, only ASML can transport the highly sensitive machines, which it monitors online, and components that it ships are handled by ASML engineers in customers’ fabs. “ASML has never shipped an EUV machine to China, nor have we shipped to China any component, module or equipment specially designed to be used in an EUV machine,” the company says.” [The Economist]

Thanks to the huge jump in the price of memory due to the AI boom, Samsung’s profits in its chip division for 2026 will be more than the previous 40 years combined. [Toms Hardware]

An interview with some of China’s first cohort of “practical PhDs,” graduate students who develop a product instead of writing a thesis. [Nature]

After losing more than $1 billion of them to Iran, the US wants a cheaper reaper drone. [Ars Technica]

Read more

The Taste Essay

A deft bit of stage direction in Shaw’s Pygmalion, introducing the character of Mrs. Higgins, has been stuck in my head since I first read it in high school:

There is a portrait of Mrs. Higgins as she was when she defied fashion in her youth in one of the beautiful Rossettian costumes... In the corner... Mrs. Higgins, now over sixty and long past taking the trouble to dress out of the fashion, sits writing...

You have to do a double-take to appreciate the insight in this thumbnail sketch, and it is worth unpacking. Normally, we assume that it is keeping up with, and conforming to, current fashion that takes effort. As this sketch suggests, this view is mistaken, and things are rather more complicated.

We make this mistake because we often lazily conflate genuine indifference to fashion (which takes no effort) with being unfashionable (which takes as much effort as being fashionable). To be indifferent to fashion is to make essentially random sartorial choices while being oblivious to the consequences. But to be unfashionable is to earnestly misdirect effort to conform to the wrong fashion culture, such as one that’s identifiably a season or two older than the prevailing one, or one that fails subtle signaling tests while passing easier ones.

The difference between the indifferent and the unfashionable is the difference between the outlaw and the unwitting criminal. The former is simply outside the jurisdiction of a taste culture, and therefore largely invulnerable to any social sanctions it might capable of imposing. Not being invited to parties does not matter if you do not care to go to parties. The indifferent make utilitarian decisions ignoring considerations of taste. The unfashionable person though, transgresses the prevailing culture of taste, while sincerely intending and trying to conform to it, and as such, represents a policing problem for the fashionable. The choices of such individuals are what are generally labeled crimes of fashion.

Crimes of fashion that manifest through unfashionable choices are of two sorts, only one of which can be properly attributed to tastelessness, and judged and punished accordingly, with greater harshness.

The first sort is the result of simple ignorance and disconnection from the social core of a culture of taste, rather than lack of discernment or aptitude. Those who are unfashionable simply because they lack access and mentorship can acquire tasteful comportment, as was the case with Eliza Doolittle.

The second sort of crime of fashion though, is more serious: Attributable to an inability to acquire the appropriate sort of discernment and literacy despite being sufficiently immersed in the culture and materially equipped to participate in it. It is this second sort of fashion criminal who is usually charged with tastelessness, and policed and punished through particularly aggressive acts of contempt, exclusion, and humiliation.

The fashionable, the unfashionable, and the indifferent, then, are the basic types one encounters in and around a taste culture. We will refine our models of these and give them better names in a moment.

Mrs. Higgins though, belongs to none of these types.

***

In Pygmalion, the introductory thumbnail sketch reveals Mrs. Higgins to have been, in her youth, guilty of high treason — someone who committed transgressions against a prevailing culture of taste while being a literate insider of it.

For someone like this, conforming to prevailing fashion is an entirely effortless matter. High effort for her was associated with conscious transgression. I know nothing of women’s fashion, but fortunately ChatGPT does:

Mrs. Higgins would have come of age roughly in the 1860s and 1870s, when respectable upper-middle-class British women were expected to dress according to the highly structured fashions of the day: crinolines giving way to bustles, tightly corseted waists, elaborate trimming, and an emphasis on displaying wealth and propriety. Fashion was ornate, highly codified, and closely tied to social respectability.

The “Rossettian costume” refers to the aesthetic associated with Dante Gabriel Rossetti and the broader Pre-Raphaelite Brotherhood and Aesthetic Movement. Women in Rossetti’s paintings typically wore:

  • loose, flowing medieval- or Renaissance-inspired gowns,

  • uncorseted or lightly corseted silhouettes,

  • rich but subdued fabrics,

  • long, naturally arranged hair,

  • little emphasis on the latest Paris fashions.

To adopt that style in everyday life was not simply to wear different clothes; it was to signal allegiance to an artistic and intellectual subculture. It rejected mainstream Victorian ideals of propriety and commercial fashion in favor of beauty, craftsmanship, medievalism, and artistic individuality. Figures associated with the movement—including William Morris and Oscar Wilde a generation later—encouraged “artistic dress” as a critique of conventional taste.

Mrs. Higgins, who once helped pioneer a new taste culture by subverting prevailing ones, is now old enough to require neither the validation of her individual tastes that transgression can supply, nor driven by the sort of youthful sensibility that is capable of being entertained by the thrilling bloodsport of it.

Equally, her conforming to the contemporary culture of fashion in later years is not a mark of anxious attachment to it, but enlightened transcendence of it.

This is not an incidental bit of color in the characterization of Mrs. Higgins. It is integral to her role in the play, as someone who can see through her son’s theatrics and is unimpressed by them. She is more deeply fluent in the culture Henry Higgins is attempting to hack at a superficial level, and correctly predicts the outcome of the experiment he sets in motion. Most importantly, she is consistently kind and considerate towards Eliza, and acts to ease her journey as a human being rather than as an ill-conceived experiment.

Mrs. Higgins used to be a taste pioneer. Someone who helps establish new cultures of taste to challenge existing ones. But when we meet her, she has transcended the ebb and tide of taste cultures. Her capacity for kindness is rooted in this transcendence, and a mark of it since, as I will argue, cruelty is central to taste. Every kind of taste is arguably a taste for blood. Which is why taste itself must be defined in terms of a capacity for a particular kind of aesthetic risk-taking.

But I’m getting ahead of myself.

***

The idea of taste pioneers is what motivates the definition of taste that I want to pose and develop in this essay:

Taste is making aesthetic choices someone does not want you to make. Everything else is public relations.

The definition is a snowclone of a similar definition of journalism (journalism is printing something someone does not want you to print, everything else is public relations), and centers the role of risk in the creation, maintenance, and destruction of taste cultures.

The consequences of this definition will become clear later, but first I want to flesh out the extended universe of archetypes around it.

The “someone” in the picture is, of course, the same fashionable person who polices the unfashionable at the other end of the spectrum, imposing real penalties for crimes of fashion and tastelessness.

Their relationship to the taste pioneer though, is different. Unlike the tasteless, who are incapable of making aesthetically correct decisions by the standards of a culture of taste, and therefore can only be punished and excluded from it, the taste pioneer clearly does understand what choices they are expected to make and why. In fact they typically understand better than those who aim to police them. But they choose to make different choices anyway, driven by an original logic.

Like taste outlaws, taste pioneers are typically invulnerable to the ability of the fashion police to extract penalties. Unlike taste outlaws though, they are capable of imposing penalties — by virtue of their superior tastefulness, their choices can do more than transgress prevailing taste cultures, they can subvert and undermine them, draining social and cultural capital.

This happens most visibly through the ineffectiveness of attempted punishments. Attempts to exclude and humiliate fail. Contempt does not land. The desire to belong of promising new prospects suddenly begin to waver and reorient. Cultural talent begins to defect.

The taste pioneer is necessarily a disruptive figure. And, I will argue, the only figure who can actually be said to have taste at all.

All taste is a taste for disruption; a taste for blood. The taste pioneer aims to draw blood in their interaction with incumbent arbiters of taste.

Just as we can really only attribute tastelessness to those who demonstrate a clearly lack of aptitude, we can only really attribute taste itself to taste pioneers, whose transgressions have the power to undermine taste cultures themselves. The tasteless are judged by taste cultures. But taste cultures themselves are judged by taste pioneers.

What then, of the merely fashionable, who rehearse and reinforce established cultures of taste and ritual disputation through their behaviors, perhaps making incremental advances? Who police the unfashionable and attempt to rein in the pioneering? Are they tasteful at all?

What, if anything, can we learn from them about taste?

To hint at the answer, we can learn everything and nothing from them.

I’ll use a new, more precise term for this class. Because they model aesthetic erudition (think the comic book guy on The Simpsons or Stuart on Big Bang Theory) rather than taste proper (in the sense of my risk-centering definition above), I’ll refer to them as connoisseurs.

The universe of taste now contains four archetypes: The outlaw, the tasteless, the connoisseur, and the pioneer.

We need one more to complete the picture, the philistine.

***

Though I’ve been casually observing (and to some degree, trolling), the taste discourse for a decade, I’ve never had a good reason to weigh in. I do now (yes it has to do with AI, but I’ll save the details for a future article). So a good question is: What archetype do I represent?

The answer of course, is domain-specific. Depending on domain, I could reasonably be classified as outlaw, tasteless, connoisseur, or pioneer. For the domains of taste that most interest me, the last three categories mostly suffice.

Most of these are domains of technical taste, of the sort that leads to uncannily good decisions in matters of engineering design, scientific investigation, or mathematical argumentation. In some of these kinds of domains, I’d self-classify as moderately tasteful and capable of occasional flashes of pioneering taste. In others, I’d self classify as tasteless but interested enough to tolerate the embarrassment and endure the punishments imposed by connoisseurs.

Many other domains I care about are domains of managerial and organizational taste. In these, I’d say I’m significantly more tasteful, and capable of assisting pioneers, though I lack the energy to do any pioneering myself. That’s why I’ve been able to make a living as a management consultant.

Fortunately for my sanity, these domains have been mostly out-of-scope in the taste culture wars, perhaps because the artistic and aesthetic aspects of these domains are neither visible, nor interesting, to outsiders. As a result, the taste culture wars largely revolve around explicitly artistic domains like literature, music, fashion, or film. Cultures of taste everybody participates in.

It was the last of these that was my entry point into early taste discourse a decade ago, long before it become the subject of culture wars. Around that time, on Twitter, I used to enjoy trolling banter with a musician named Gabe Duquette, who was developing a serious theory of taste. I did not, and still do not, understand it. I believe it involved some notion of compression, which was a popular lens on the matter back then.

Gabe was (and presumably remains) a cinephile who was offended by my loudly proclaimed and decidedly middlebrow screen media tastes. Theatrically offended of course, not really offended. We were all doing elaborate bits on Twitter back then (the actual taste culture we were enacting was of course that of Twitter itself).1

I was, in his words, guilty of neither indifference, nor tastelessness, but of “consuming pablum, knowing it was pablum.” He presumably reached that conclusion because I had demonstrated some aptitude for screen-media connoisseurship (my best known work, after all, is an analysis of a TV show), but refused his sincere offer to help identify and refine my tastes. He offered to guide me through a carefully crafted learning curve of movie watching to profile my uncultivated tastes, and improve my discernment and judgment in picking good things to watch to feed them.

He was perfectly right. When it comes to screen media, I did (and still do) consume pablum knowing it is pablum. What does that make me?

***

I do, in fact, possess a rudimentary, uncultivated ability to tell good and bad cinema and television apart, in the sense cinephiles would like everybody to. And I do have the aptitude to become a non-embarrassing member of cinephile circles. But unfortunately for cinephiles who might hope to civilize me, I simply do not care enough to put in the effort. That particular domain does not interest me enough. I am not indifferent in my choices, merely barbaric. And I am that way because cinephile milieus do not play a significant enough role in my life that I can be embarrassed by my uncritical preference for (say) Marvel movies over those of Martin Scorsese, or for the Christopher Nolan Batman over the Tim Burton Batman.

While I occasionally offer shallowly developed drive-by arguments on such matters (such as the argument that Kevin Feige’s orchestration of a 40+ movie universe is pioneering taste in a meta-medium that Scorsese does not appreciate), I don’t press such matters. I do not have enough of a stake in this particular culture of taste to pursue such arguments to the interesting conclusions that undoubtedly exist.

To engage in the bloodsport of taste cultures, you have to have stakes.

For me, screen media are about relaxing and unwinding with my brain switched off. If I am in a high-energy mood, I tackle difficult history books or tinker ineptly in my workshop. I’m willing to draw blood or bleed in those domains. But I don’t watch demanding movies or subject myself to black-and-white remedial education.

This is not a particularly uncommon relationship to a culture of taste, and I am sure most of you, like me, have many such connoisseur-offending relationships.

For example, I have moderately refined coffee tastes, but I am also fine drinking random instant coffee. I drink coffee primarily to manage my energy and mood with caffeine. The taste is secondary. Similarly, I can appreciate an elevated meal at a fine-dining restaurant, but I’m also fine eating whatever when I’m just hungry, which is mostly what I do. I’m not a foodie, but that doesn’t mean I’m either tasteless or indifferent when it comes to food, or itching to pioneer new culinary tastes. When it comes to sartorial taste, I’m probably borderline tasteless, but not to an embarrassing degree. I can struggle through an evening in a suit if someone really needs me to.

Perhaps most offensive in my case, I can appreciate, and on occasion produce, tasteful and even well-crafted prose, but have been gleefully producing and consuming AI generated texts, heedless of the damage it might do to my palette or the palettes of readers. If this were a serious literary rebellion, I might have been able to claim I’m on a taste-pioneering journey. I’m not. I simply don’t care enough about the craft and taste culture of reading and writing, even though I do so much of both.

This kind of posture, I’ll argue, is the most common one in any taste culture. Most of us are this way in relation to most taste cultures we participate in, much to the dismay of connoisseurs who earnestly beg the rest of us to try harder to do better.

What archetype does this type of posture represent?

In the case of screen media, I am clearly not an neutrally indifferent outlaw, since I do discriminate and hold preferences, and actually consume a lot of the medium. I am clearly not a low criminal guilty of tastelessness either— I do know better, and occasionally, but not exclusively, consume better. I am clearly not a connoisseur either — I haven’t put in the work to convert basic aptitude into cultivated discernment.

And I am certainly not a taste pioneer capable of high treason and cultural rebellion in pursuit of a more fundamental tastefulness.

In this domain, I’m a cultural alien whose choices reflect capped attention and significant competing allegiances to other taste domains, in which I visibly invest more energy and attention.

By my very presence in a culture of taste with such a posture, I point to the existence of competing cultures of taste, and the possibility of valuing them more highly. It is a dilutive, market-making relationship, which lowers the intensity of the culture’s sense of its own importance in the larger scheme of things. I help price the priceless, and create liquidity where connoisseurs hope to create and defend solidity.

A good word for this is philistine.

***

A philistine is someone whose offensiveness to a culture of taste is a side effect of their competing allegiances rather than a central feature of their identity. Someone whose lack of taste is wilful but incidental to their self-conception, rather than innocent, unwitting and central to their self-conception. A matter of casually offensive distorted preferences rather than either genuine indifference or committed rebellion.

The outlaw phones it in but does not intend to offend. The taste pioneer defines themselves in opposition to a prevailing taste culture via heresy and heterodoxy.

The philistine indulges in the cultural equivalent of drive-by shootings.

In the Biblical usage, the Philistines were a foreign tribe — the ones in the David vs. Goliath story (Goliath being either a metaphor for a numerically superior force or an actual giant). In modern usage, the term indicates wilfully obnoxious tastelessness. In both cases, the charge of barbarism is something of a cope (presumably the historical Philistines had cultures of taste around matters they did care about, such as seafaring and warfare).

These then, are the archetypes of the theory of taste I want to offer here. To summarize before we proceed, we have:

  • The outlaw — who does not care and makes indifferent but not intentionally hostile choices in aesthetic decisions the taste culture cares about

  • The tasteless — who cares, but makes the wrong choices, either through lack of access and education, or lack of fundamental aptitude, representing lesser and greater crimes of taste respectively

  • The connoisseur — who has cultivated an ability to make the right choices, either effortlessly through innate aptitude and being born to the culture, or through effortful cultivation

  • The taste pioneer — who has cultivated an exceptional ability to make new choices, and has both more taste than the culture can police, and the daring to take risks with it

  • The philistine — who makes choices that serve an alien cultural logic, and cultivates and exhibits casually offensive tastes that serve to price what the taste culture presumes to be priceless, in broader society

Each of these archetypes has an associated narrative in relation to the evolution of a taste culture. They enter and exit (or stay) at different phases. They serve different functions in the lifecycle of the taste cultures. The play different roles in determining the ultimate historical significance of a particular taste culture — whether it will come to be seen as an important chapter in a larger historical tradition, or an embarrassing and campy sidequest in the story of civilization.

It would take several more essays to work through these narratives and the life cycles of taste cultures. It is the sort of speculative armchair sociology I used to enjoy doing but no longer have the energy for. Long-time readers may notice that the setup here is similar to the setup of the Gervais Principle, a series in which I devoted 5 of 6 parts to exploring the trajectories and inter-relationships of 3 archetypes of organizational life. There is even a rough mapping here — the taste pioneers correspond to the sociopaths, the connoisseurs and tasteless together constitute the clueless, and the philistines and outlaws together correspond to the losers. This is a structural mapping though, and none of the connotations carry over. The model differs in several important ways. Most importantly, unlike economic loserdom in the Gervais theory, which stings in real ways for all, regardless of compensatory value elsewhere, what philistines and outlaws “lose” in a taste culture is only valuable within the taste culture, with no particular value or liquidity beyond.

I am not going to attempt a full Gervais-style theory here, not least because I lack suitable fodder comparable to The Office (and no, I’m not taking suggestions). David Chapman wrote something like the kind of treatment this calls for, in Geeks, Mops, and Sociopaths, though focused on the dynamics of extraction and selling-out rather than taste itself.

In this essay, I want to skip past those interesting sociological and anthropological questions to the phenomenology of taste itself.

***

The philistine represents a very different sort of threat to the connoisseur than the other three classes, all of which either validate, or at least do not directly threaten, the culture’s sense of its own value.

Cultures of taste tend to be totalizing. To the cinephile, cinema is an absolutely important cultural activity that is never appreciated enough. The true cinephile believes that as much as possible of societal surpluses ought to be deployed towards making more tasteful cinema and teaching more people to appreciate it.

The philistine is the human face of the political war the connoisseur must ceaselessly wage, to convince the rest of the world to value the culture of taste at its own estimation. He serves an ever-present reminder that the connoisseur’s entire identity is contingent and subject to dilution to nothingness. That other ways of life are not just possible, but might possible offer richer modes of meaning and fulfilment. That those other ways might ultimately starve the connoisseur’s world and life of the cultural energy it needs to survive.

The taste pioneer at least represents a resurrection and continuation of a taste culture in altered form. The philistine represents the possibility that the taste culture might dissipate into irrelevance and go extinct.

Why does this matter? What do you care if most of the rest of the world finds meaning and fulfilment differently from you?

It matters because we like to believe that we represent a necessary sort of human being, even if we are all individually mortal. That our cultural allegiances matter beyond ourselves. The tastes we cultivate are our bids for immortality.

Here, it is useful to construct a pyramid model of how the self evolves as it cultivates literacy and competence in a particular culture of taste, something like a Maslow’s hierarchy of aesthetic needs.

This is not meant to be a particularly clever or original diagram, so I hope it is mostly self-explanatory.

Much of taste discourse today concerns the bottom two levels, and these are the levels that connoisseurs typically inhabit, and where AIs currently threaten to compete.

The three levels above typically involve some degree of risk, and are the levels at which taste pioneering operates and the mechanics are those of a social bloodsport.

The final level, the one occupied perhaps by Mrs. Higgins, represents transcendence of the taste culture.

Let us work through the first two levels.

  • Discernment and attunement are obviously preconditions to any praxis of taste. You cannot form conscious opinions about things you do not even notice, and you cannot care about differences if you cannot detect the underlying distinctions. Cultivating an increasing resolution of attention is table stakes in any culture of taste. While rare, there can be arrested development at this level — obsessive-compulsive attention to taxonomizing and distinguishing, accompanied by inability to make choices or be indifferent to anything. A kind of taste paralysis.

  • Indifference and attention allocation, equally obviously, are central to any expression of taste. You cannot watch every movie, listen to every song, or read every book. To choose is to choose indifference to some distinctions, and care about others. In a trivial sense, any two movies are going to be different. In a more meaningfl sense, some of those differences are only going to be evident at a given level of attunement and discernment. Of those, you will care about some, but not others. To do justice to some, you must do at least ritual violence to others.

It is at this point, give or take some details, that much of taste discourse tends to stop. And certainly there is a great deal to say about these two levels. But if this is as far as you go in your taste journey, you have not yet explored taste per se. You have merely internalized a grammar of taste set up by others as a sort of artificial physics, and the rules of that game are indistinguishable from the rules of games designed by nature. Which is why this xkcd (I swear I didn’t remember it was titled “Connoisseur” before getting to this point in the writing of this essay) is so funny.

It is worth noting that though connoisseurs disagree and argue, that is the point. They do not actually make decisions their peers do not want them to make. There is no actual risk; no real costs. There is merely the pleasure of endless ritualized disagreement. This is not yet a social bloodsport.

So what does it take for a taste culture to escape the reductio ad absurdum of the Joe-Biden-sandwich-eating endgame?

It takes people who refuse to be locked up in a box, and insist on situating the taste culture in a wider world, and forcing an engagement between the two. People who do not flinch from the question of whether photographs of Joe Biden eating a sandwich actually deserve attention. Taste pioneers who can revalue what the philistines devalue, and rebuild taste cultures after their depredations.

If reality has a surprising amount of detail, and you can nerd out over anything to arbitrary depths, what distinguishes worthwhile and worthless ways of allocating attention and indifference? Asking this question is the first step towards becoming a taste pioneer.

***

The answer, I think, has to do with the potential for high-social-risk intersubjective self-authorship a domain offers. As the xkcd cartoon suggests, any subject can be arbitrarily deep, but once you add risk, real distinctions emerge.

Consider two examples of connoisseurship:

  1. Two dinosaur fans, with equally attuned discernment on saurian matters, argue about the fidelity of two dinosaur representations in Jurassic Park that the rest of us can barely tell apart.

  2. Two jazz fans, with equally attuned discernment on jazz matters, argue about the relative merits of two musicians that the rest of us can barely tell apart.

In the first case, the ground truth for the argument is derived from scientific facts — whether or not dinosaurs have feathers, whether T. Rex ran fast or slow, whether velociraptors were in fact that big (they weren’t) and whether they hunted in packs.

In the second case, the ground truth for the argument is derived from the tradition of taste itself, but to the extent you don’t challenge received authority, it might as well be a matter of objective facts. Instead of poring over fossilized remains, you pore over seminal texts. Instead of systematic empiricism, you practice systematic hermeneutics. Instead of submitting to the authority of experiments and data, you submit to the authority of authority figures.

While there is some room for taste, stylization of facts, and appeals to authority when it comes to beliefs about dinosaurs, dinosaur fandom offers less room for self-authorship than music. This is simply because you can, in fact, become an authoritative source of musical tastes. But you cannot become a new set of dinosaur facts. Taste pioneering is possible in music in a way it isn’t in dinosaur fandom. Fewer constraining facts equals more room for humans.

So when it comes to music, you can go further, because the truths about music are truths about the human psyche and how it can be transformed through the creation and consumption of music. One sign that this is so is that a great deal more social risk accompanies musical tastes than dinosaur tastes.

The journey beyond connoisseurship, and into taste pioneering, begins when you realize that some cultures of taste are neither objective, nor subjective, but intersubjective. And because they are intersubjective, your self-authorship can influence others the way empirical facts can in more objective domains. And that exercising this influence will involve taking on risk.

Few venture into taste pioneering, however, which is why it yields a good definition of taste. Making choices that connoisseurs do not want you to make takes courage.

Much of what passes for taste discourse is really restricted to what we might call aesthetic erudition, which rehearses and models the patterns of judgment of a mature taste culture through scholarship and maintenance of boundaries between esoteric and exoteric. This is the substance of connoisseurship. While I do not in general like Straussian-Girardian frames, they are peculiarly well adapted to thinking about how connoisseurs curate tastes.

In fact, taste cultures are likely the only class of phenomenology to which Straussian-Girardian frames can be usefully applied. Connoisseurs are, in a Straussian reading, scholars of intersubjectivity induced by pioneering greatness. Stewards of mimesis and esoteric-exoteric boundaries, and keepers of hermeneutic rather than empirical truths (and yes, wine, as much as poetry, can be understood as comprising texts produced by authority figures for suitably cultivated tastes, rather than empirical realities). Connoisseurs are at once the scientists and inertial masses responding to forces set in motion by taste pioneers.

This is one reason taste cultures, unlike reality, famously have a conservative bias. If a taste culture goes long enough without disruption by a sufficiently disruptive taste pioneer, it will ossify into a tradition. Connoisseurs will evolve into a priesthood, punishments for tastelessness will increase in severity, slowly choking off the supply of fresh creative minds, and the culture will begin to decay, holding on to fading memories of liveness.

Aesthetics, as I once noted, is the entry drug of conservatism. And it isn’t just the tedious tradarch posters I’m talking about here.

***

Let me venture a strong statement: The connoisseur, ultimately, has no autonomous creative agency, and therefore cannot express taste as such. They can only acquire a particular learnable discernment, and get to a kind of mimetic subjectivity first established as possible by a taste pioneer.

What they visibly practice is a craft that is impressive only insofar as it reliably rehearses and reproduces patterns of judgment we already know, by some other means, to be correct within a given taste culture. It is not an art, either in consumption or production.

This is why there is usually a culture of competitive discernment to first qualify connoisseurs on the basis of objectively determinable competence, (can you identify this wine? this raga?), and then on mutual agreement (does your ranking of these wines meaningfully correlate to those of Wine Spectator? Can you distinguish more and less celebrated exponents of a raga?)

What is notable about such tests of connoisseurship is that they are not tests of individual tastes, but of ability to auditably internalize the default tastes of an entire inherited culture of taste.

The taste pioneer, however, can and does go beyond. A good example of this was Andy Kauffman, who famously did a series of deliberately bad stand-up impressions in his act, topped off with a pitch-perfect impression of Elvis Presley. The act left the audience first annoyed and contemptuous, then speechless. The message was clear — I understand and can express your tastes better than you can, but I have better tastes, fuck you.

Kauffman explored realms of taste that were clearly beyond the culture of taste he was part of, and helped move that culture to those new realms. That’s taste pioneering.

Levels 3-5 of my pyramid chart this sort of journey into taste pioneering.

  • Transgression and social risk: You must make decisions connoisseurs cannot help but disagree with, because they do not own their own tastes. They merely represent the tastes of a taste culture.

  • Aesthetic self-authorship: Connoisseurs are, to varying degrees, automatons whose behaviors are only legitimate to the extent they are predetermined by the taste culture. Taste pioneers discover and model new modes of discernment and attunement, responding to phenomenology beyond the walls of the culture. The cultivation and expression of taste becomes a mode of self-authorship rather than a mode of belonging. They are the living proofs of their tastefulness.

  • Rightness surplus: Taste pioneers, like good leaders of any sort (per Amazon’s famous leadership principles) are right a lot. But what they are right about is a subtle thing. While there can be particular crude signs like commercial or popular success, these can easily be (or interpreted to be) signs of degeneracy. But what they are really right about is where generativity and liveness are to be found. They declare: we must take fashion/art/cinema/music in this direction rather than that one, for that way lies exhaustion and death, while this way lies new life.

At this point, we have something like a theory of creative destruction of taste cultures.

We can think in terms of the Wardley-Cringley pioneer-settler-town-planner model, and draw Wardley maps to capture the evolutionary dynamics of a particular taste culture.

We can talk about how alive or dead it is, what innovations are being introduced by taste pioneers, how notions of sacred and profane are changing, and what elements of taste are becoming irrelevant and commoditized through automation.

I’ll leave all that as suggested exploration directions.

***

Mrs. Higgins in Pygmalion transcends taste culture. She occupies the top of the pyramid, too old to take the trouble to dress out of fashion. She predicts and interprets her son, Henry Higgins’ misadventure for him, and helps protect Eliza from the fallout.

To transcend a taste culture is to no longer rely on it for self-authorship. To no longer be defined by conformity or transgression. To no longer be defined by the cruelties of exclusion, contempt, humiliation, heresy, and heterodoxy. To no longer be defined by a taste for social blood.

To transcend a taste culture is to evolve with it without being defined by it. To inhabit a self that can serve as a measure of the world rather than being measured by it, and give itself permission to be kind, regardless of whether or not that is a tasteful choice.

The instinct to beauty — which is another possible definition of taste — is always also an instinct to cruelty. Cruelty to others, yes, but also cruelty to oneself, in the form of limiting self-conceptions.

Kindness is, perhaps, the ultimate act of tastelessness. It is a taste for life itself, rather than for blood. Which is why it is the mark of transcendence of taste itself, and paradoxically, the ultimate sort of tastefulness too.

I got to thinking about taste, as many have in recent years, by way of thinking about how to teach AIs to have taste. Much of what we can do today is teach AIs connoisseurship. To the extent my theory of connoisseurship as a kind of learned automaticity is correct, it should be entirely trainable. A mimetic subjectivity is reducible to objectively observable behavior. We can likely create zombie connoisseurs as good as any human ones, so long as we can replicate sensory discernment. There is nothing uniquely human about discernment and attunement. The connoisseur is ultimately a Large Taste Model equipped with special sensors. The self they have cultivated can be distilled into model weights.

But to actually teach AIs taste, we must first introduce them to aesthetic risk, both social and material. To the costs of choices someone does not want them to make.

What kinds of risk? And what sorts of costs? And imposed by whom?

I’ll explore these in a future post.

1

Gabe eventually decided Twitter was “actually bad” (iirc he pioneered the briefly popular usage of “actually good” and “actually bad” that shaped early taste discourse) and disappeared. I don’t know what he’s up to now. But he did help me refine my theory of taste.

*A Tale of Three Cities*

The author is Bob Harris, and the subtitle is The Life and Times of Lord Daer 1763-1794.  Who is Lord Daer?  Don’t worry about that!  So many books on the Scottish Enlightenment cover one particular thing, but somehow fail to give the reader a proper sense of life on the ground.  I found this is the best book I know for actually communicating what it was like to live during, and participate in, the Scottish Enlightenment.  Maybe to achieve that end it is necessary to focus on the life of a figure who was less than totally famous?  Definitely recommended, this book should be better known.

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*Who Thinks Like an Economist?*

That is the title of a recent book by Beatrice Magistro.  Some key results are:

Economic knowledge consistently predicts higher support for welfare-enhancing policies (Eurozone membership, free trade, and EU immigration), independent on whether individuals stand to gain or lose initially from globalization.  This challenges conventional self-interest accounts and instead highlights the role of economic knowledge — and potentially time preferences — in shaping globalization attitudes.

Economic knowledge also predicts a lower discount rate, even after adjusting for years of education.

I would say that over the years I have altered my perspective a bit on these issues.  I used to think these factors were correlated, in large part, through a kind of wisdom.  I now think that more of the effect, however much I may sympathize with it, runs through sociological expectation and perceived obligation, combined with conformity and signaling pressures.

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New space policy Substack from Mercatus

We are RebeccaMax, and Aakrith. We are researchers at The Mercatus Center, a research organization dedicated to classical liberal ideas. Rebecca is a philosopher, Max is an economist, and Aakrith is a political scientist. Together, we are the Space Team, and this is our Substack.

We’re here to persuade you that space policy is increasingly important. And that getting space policy right offers humankind astonishing opportunities. In particular, we’re currently thinking hard about innovation, competition, federalism, property rights, and life in space.

Here is the link.

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Saturday 11 July 1663

Up early and to the Dock, and with the Storekeeper and other officers all the morning from one office to another. At noon to the Hill-house in Commissioner Pett’s coach, and after seeing the guard-ships, to dinner, and after dining done to the Dock by coach, it raining hard, to see “The Prince” launched, which hath lain in the Dock in repairing these three years. I went into her and was launched in her. Thence by boat ashore, it raining, and I went to Mr. Barrow’s, where Sir J. Minnes and Commissioner Pett; we staid long eating sweetmeats and drinking, and looking over some antiquities of Mr. Barrow’s, among others an old manuscript Almanac, that I believe was made for some monastery, in parchment, which I could spend much time upon to understand. Here was a pretty young lady, a niece of Barrow’s, which I took much pleasure to look on.

Thence by barge to St. Mary Creek; where Commissioner Pett (doubtful of the growing greatness of Portsmouth by the finding of those creeks there), do design a wett dock at no great charge, and yet no little one; he thinks towards 10,000l. And the place, indeed, is likely to be a very fit place, when the King hath money to do it with.

Thence, it raining as hard as it could pour down, home to the Hillhouse, and anon to supper, and after supper, Sir J. Minnes and I had great discourse with Captain Cox and Mr. Hempson about business of the yard, and particularly of pursers’ accounts with Hempson, who is a cunning knave in that point.

So late to bed and, Mr. Wayth being gone, I lay above in the Treasurer’s bed and slept well.

About one or two in the morning the curtains of my bed being drawn waked me, and I saw a man stand there by the inside of my bed calling me French dogg 20 times, one after another, and I starting, as if I would get out of the bed, he fell a-laughing as hard as he could drive, still calling me French dogg, and laid his hand on my shoulder. At last, whether I said anything or no I cannot tell, but I perceived the man, after he had looked wistly upon me, and found that I did not answer him to the names that he called me by, which was Salmon, Sir Carteret’s clerk, and Robt. Maddox, another of the clerks, he put off his hat on a suddaine, and forebore laughing, and asked who I was, saying, “Are you Mr. Pepys?” I told him yes, and now being come a little better to myself, I found him to be Tom Willson, Sir W. Batten’s clerk, and fearing he might be in some melancholy fit, I was at a loss what to do or say. At last I asked him what he meant. He desired my pardon for that he was mistaken, for he thought verily, not knowing of my coming to lie there, that it had been Salmon, the Frenchman, with whom he intended to have made some sport. So I made nothing of it, but bade him good night, and I, after a little pause, to sleep again, being well pleased that it ended no worse, and being a little the better pleased with it, because it was the Surveyor’s clerk, which will make sport when I come to tell Sir W. Batten of it, it being a report that old Edgeborough, the former Surveyor, who died here, do now and then walk.

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Mac OS 9’s Finder Had a ‘View as Buttons’ Mode

Cryan.com:

The “View as Buttons” option was a distinctive feature of the Macintosh OS 9 Finder. It allowed users to view the contents of a folder as clickable buttons, each representing a file or application. This view was particularly useful for quickly accessing frequently used programs and documents.

I totally forgot this view existed, despite using Mac OS 9 for many years, because I never used it myself. This didn’t just turn apps into buttons with tiled square backgrounds — it turned every item in the file system into a button. I was reminded of it by a reader who used it in theater class in school to turn a folder full of sound files into, effectively, a soundboard app. Cool.

So many of the best UI ideas are little things like this. Sure, most Mac users didn’t want or need this view. But for those who did, they could do something cool with it.

 ★ 

John Ternus Calls Sam Altman

“Yeah, who’s this?”

“You know who this is.”

“Yes I do, yes I do. I sent a guy to deliver the package ... he didn’t call. Is everything alright?”

“Tell you what. Forget the money.”

 ★ 

‘No Interest’

Drew Pusateri, director of communications at OpenAI, on Twitter/X (or XCancel):

Our statement in response to this suit: We have no interest in other companies’ trade secrets. We remain focused on building innovative technology that empowers people everywhere.

Let’s say I think you stole my wallet. I approach a police officer and tell him my suspicion and describe the evidence that makes me think you have my wallet in your pocket. “Is that his wallet in your pocket?” the cop asks.

“I have no interest in other people’s wallets” would be a rather curious answer.

 ★ 

Ice Cold

Alex Heath, on Threads:

At WWDC, Apple execs I met with were ice-cold when I asked about their OpenAI partnership.

Now we know why: Apple just sued OpenAI for allegedly stealing trade secrets related to consumer hardware (Apple and OAI senior leaders are in Sun Valley this week. Yikes!)

I noticed the same ice-cold reaction to my questions about ChatGPT and Siri. (In fact, I think Heath and I even talked about it together when we bumped into each other at the end of the day on Monday during WWDC week.) At the time I took it as Apple execs not wanting to distract from the fact that Siri AI with Apple Intelligence, with no third-party plug-in, was truly competitive. But in hindsight their coolness, I think, was about this.

There was no response like, say, “We think ChatGPT is great and we’re happy to keep it available in iOS 27 as an option for our customers who love that experience, but the new Siri AI truly stands on its own.” That’s a typical Apple answer. But what they actually said was just more like “The ChatGPT extension remains available.” I didn’t think much of it at the time but now it stands out.

 ★ 

Ryanair Literally Sucks

The AP:

Fellow passengers pulled back a man who was partially sucked out of a dislodged airplane window on Friday, a few minutes after takeoff on a flight from northern Greece to Germany. The plane subsequently returned to the airport in Greece.

The incident happened on a morning flight from the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki to Memmingen, near Munich, operated by Malta Air, a subsidiary of Ryanair, Europe’s largest budget carrier.

 ★ 

Newly Renamed Trump Airport in Palm Beach Has an AI Slop Logo

Frank Landymore, writing for Futurism:

Look past its gaudiness, though, and you’ll notice some things that’re a little off in the finer details. The talons are horribly deformed and shaped differently from each other. The entire legs are uneven, too, and the base of them are represented as a strange conglomeration of blobs, which are also inconsistent. In fact, the whole thing is slightly asymmetrical. The wings have an uneven number of feathers. The two olive branches — another error in itself, because the eagle is supposed to be clutching a bundle of arrows in its right-side talon — have differing numbers of leaves. And the shield only has eleven stripes, as opposed to the thirteen that the actual Great Seal is supposed to feature.

The fourth star is crooked. What a mess. Perfect logo for Trump Airport.

 ★ 

OpenAI Help Center Describes What Is Wrong With the New ChatGPT

OpenAI Help Center, “Where Work and Codex are available”:

Work is available on ChatGPT web and mobile for eligible paid plans. Work is also available in the ChatGPT desktop app when included for your plan and workspace.

Work on web and mobile runs in the cloud. Work in the desktop app can also use local files and desktop apps with your permission. At launch, cloud Work conversations do not appear in desktop Work; desktop Work threads and local files remain on that computer.

Codex is available as a mode in the ChatGPT desktop app. It can work with local folders, repositories, terminals, and developer tools. Codex is not a selectable mode on web or mobile. You can access supported desktop Codex tasks from the Remote tab in the ChatGPT mobile app, but those tasks do not become web or mobile chat history.

These three paragraphs, from OpenAI’s own Help Center, sound more like a critic’s scathing review of what’s wrong with the new ChatGPT “super” app than a guide to how to use it.

 ★ 

Benedict Evans on the New ‘Super App’ ChatGPT

Benedict Evans with a succinct review on Threads:

Wow, what a total mess.

What is the difference between a project, a task and a chat?

Why did chats get a crappy floating window but tasks and projects don’t?

Why does choosing ‘plugins’ get me ‘templates’?

Am I not allowed to finish ‘setup’ if I don’t use Slack or Google Drive?

I forget how I made the Setup dickbar disappear despite my not using Slack or Google Drive. It was confusing.

It is sometimes observed that in companies dominated by internal politics, their shipped product (and public keynotes) reflect the company’s org chart. That’s never been truer than with the new ChatGPT app. OpenAI’s internal org chart is a complete disorganized mess. This new app perfectly reflects that.

The old ChatGPT app was focused. That’s the app that still ships for mobile (which includes iPad, which tells you whether OpenAI thinks iPad is a real computer or a big iPhone), and is, for some Mac users, left installed on their systems as “ChatGPT Classic”. The new app is an incredibly confusing sloppy mess. At a glance it looks like a polished app. But the UI is just slop. It has the veneer of a polished app without actually being organized or structured or labeled in ways that add clarity and coherence. It’s playing dress-up as a big-boy app. My understanding from people adjacent to OpenAI is that the company’s senior executives are singularly consumed with FOMO obsession regarding Anthropic, and the only real clout within the company belongs to the AI researchers. Not product designers or app craftspeople. What the researchers say goes, and with this update, we can see their level of taste in app design.

The app icon for the new “super” app should be the Homer.

 ★ 

★ Exactly Like Om Malik

Fred Vogelstein (Om’s partner at Crazy Stupid Tech):

We met a week later at his outdoor office — a bench in SF’s South Park. He told me that he was going emeritus at True Ventures, the VC firm, and that he was going to spend more of his time writing.

It was awesome to see him. Sitting on a bench with Om could be quasi religious. He talked so softly and deliberately that it forced you to slow down, lean in and forget about everything else.

What became clear was that we actually saw the world the same way. We didn’t agree what Wired should be doing about it. But we did agree on this: While everyone was fixated on big tech, an explosion in tech innovation not seen in a generation was taking place. We both agreed that not enough people were writing about it.

“Maybe we should do something together then,” I said.

Joanna Stern:

So saddened to hear about @om. His writing was one of the reasons I went into tech journalism. Right out of college, I was working at a PR agency and started reading his site. It inspired me to start blogging.

Years later, he tried to recruit me. Even after I went elsewhere, he’d send me notes telling me how proud he was of my work. He’d often review my reviews, so here’s mine of him: Generous with his time. Honest with his feedback. Endlessly encouraging to those coming up behind him.

Casey Newton:

Very sad to hear about the passing of @om. He shared two lasting lessons with me: the first when I was a cub tech reporter at the SF Chronicle; he interviewed me for a job but told me he didn’t think I could hack it at GigaOm because newspaper writers were too slow. It taught me that I needed to get out of print media ASAP.

The second was many years later, when I was having a drink with him and some other reporters. We asked him for advice. “Never name a blog after yourself,” he said. RIP

Jim Nielsen:

One day on Twitter I got a DM from someone with the handle @om.

“I don’t know who this is,” I thought, “but damn that is a great handle!”

Then I peaked at the follower count: over 1 million!

“WTF? Who is this???” I thought.

I’d never — then or since — been contacted by someone with such a high profile online.

How was I even on this person’s radar?

Om seemingly read everything.

MG Siegler:

Looking at my emails and social media messages from back then is just a treasure trove. Om was always quick with a compliment about something I had written but also with a criticism at times. He clearly just read endlessly and couldn’t help but share his opinions, even if privately. In person too he was amazingly candid and honest. He would complain how annoyed he was if you beat him to some story — but complain even louder if he felt like he actually beat you but wasn’t getting enough credit. He was clearly competitive too. And he was correct in his assessments, because again, he was honest. [...]

To me, Om was and will always be such a singular individual. There will never be anyone quite like him. He’s the only person I know who could be both humorously downtrodden and insanely optimistic at the exact same time. Again, he just seemed to wear his emotions on his sleeve.

Jason Hiner, in a post on LinkedIn:

This is the opening anecdote from “Chapter Six: The Blogger” from my 2016 book, Follow the Geeks, co-authored with Lyndsey Gilpin. Om once told me that “For three years, it was every day a rejection” as he tried to break into tech journalism. This was how he finally broke through.

David Churbuck checked his voicemail. There was a message from someone looking for a job.

Because of the guy’s thick Indian accent, David could barely make out what he was saying, except that he worked for a wire service down on Wall Street and was a big Forbes fan. The guy heard that Forbes was going to be one of the first media companies to launch its magazine on the web and he wanted to come help.

David ignored the message. He had a small team and hardly any budget.

Then he got a fax. It was from this guy, explaining why he was a perfect fit to join the team.

The next day, the guy left another message. If David would just give him a call, it would be great to talk with him. He wouldn’t regret it.

Ignore.

The following day, he left another. Whatever time limit there was for voicemails, this guy always used up every minute.

Still, David ignored it.

And then the guy started getting creative.

[...]

One of the journalists, Michael Noer, said half jokingly, “Just call the guy in!” So, partly out of admiration, and partly out of pure morbid curiosity, David called him back.

One interview. Fifteen minutes. That was all it took for David to hire Om Malik.

“They do not sell themselves”, Om told me in a separate story from that same time in his life.

Hiner made the entire chapter available to read as a handsome PDF. It’s so good, and so utterly Om. It’s a crackerjack good read about the very early “WWW” days of the web. A bit:

Om is charming and disarming, forceful and accommodating. He has an easy smile, a quiet, melodic voice, and a handsome face. Once he opens his mouth, it’s obvious how much he reads and how thirsty he is to learn. It’s rare to meet someone who is ready to debate you on almost any topic, but who’s also genuinely curious about your life and your opinion. It all makes the burly journalist one of the most huggable people on Earth. That’s what David was up against when he met Om. He didn’t stand a chance.

“It was destiny,” said David, with a self-deprecating laugh. “It was total destiny.”

Om’s close friend, photographer Christopher Michel, published “Om the Great”, an enormous gallery of portraits of him. Here’s just one of hundreds:

July 2024 portrait of Om Malik, holding a camera, by Christopher Michel.

Lastly, here’s a story from Andrew Sasaki, which he sent me by email, and I’m reproducing with his permission. It’s the perfect Om story:

I met Om briefly at a tech event in NYC around 2008 or so. He was talking with a friend of mine, and when I walked up he introduced himself: “Hi, I’m Om.”

“‘Om’ like ‘Om Malik’?” I asked.

This amused him greatly.

“Yes, exactly like Om Malik”, he said.

A couple of years later the iPad had just launched, and I saw my friend again at another industry event. I asked him a question related to the unprecedented development effort we were already seeing around the new platform that didn’t yet have a single compelling use case.

“You know who I bet would know about that? Om Malik”, he said, and gave me Om’s email address.

I hesitated to bother Om, but eventually reached out with my question. “I don’t know if you remember me, but we met a couple of years ago, and…” blah blah blah.

Naturally, there was no answer. Why would there be? He doesn’t know me from Adam, and he’s Om Fucking Malik.

Except there was an answer about 4 days later. Om started off by apologizing for the delay in responding, but he had taken the time to research his answer before writing to me. And of course, his answer was thoughtful, insightful, and absolutely correct. I was gobsmacked at the generosity he had shown replying to someone he didn’t even know. He gave no indication that he even remembered me until his signature line:

“Exactly Like Om Malik”

Give This A Listen (or a View)

If you’re a podcast listener, I want you to check out The TPM Social Club, our second podcast which is hosted by reporter Josh Kovensky and publisher Joe Ragazzo. I particularly hope you check out the latest episode where Josh and Joe interview TPM’s Capitol Hill reporter Emine Yücel. They talk about covering Capitol Hill for TPM, being an international competition-level fencer and also her background as an immigrant from Turkey and reporting on Capitol Hill politics through the prism of a Turkish background and upbringing.

What they talk about is interesting in itself. But I think you’ll also find it interesting as a TPM Reader because you see the organization sort of from the side, as it were, in this pod. You hear a lot from me at TPM in the Editors’ Blog. You hear from me again in our flagship podcast along with Kate Riga. You get some feel for who Kate and I are, our ideas, how we express things in conversation. You get some of that from David Kurtz too. But while you see the rest of the editorial team’s writing, that’s not really the same thing. You know the names, but not much about their backgrounds and them as people.

You get some of that in this episode with all three of them. The pod in general isn’t about politics in the way The TPM Show with Josh and Kate is. Politics is part of it, but it’s far less tied to the politics and news of the moment and some stuff that isn’t politics at all. It’s kind of about everything we’re interested in, or Josh and Joe are, and like everyone else there’s a lot more that we’re interested in besides politics. The particular dynamic of this episode was interesting to me because each of the three is from a different part of the organization. As our Capitol Hill reporter, Emine is right on top of the politics news of the moment, and having to translate TPMness, what we’re interested in and what we’re not, right there on the front lines. Josh covers politics news too. But the investigative beat is different, in subject matter and pace. Joe is the publisher, which means he’s in charge of running the business side of the operation. I found that part of this episode really interesting.

I enjoyed listening to it for my own reasons, seeing an angle on the organization I founded and still oversee but that has its own organic internal life, its own internal culture that has a life entirely on its own. If you’re a founder, there’s a way that it’s very natural to see the thing as kind of an extension of yourself. But if you’re successful, it becomes much more than that, a lot of it and if possible its center of gravity exists entirely independent of you. If you’re a TPM Reader, I think you’ll really enjoy it.

You can find it — TPM Social Club — on all the podcast platforms. But you can also see the video version here or just watch below. You might find the video version more interesting since if you’re getting a sense of members of the TPM staff, it’s interesting to actually see them.

Can Someone Explain to Me How to Get ‘ChatGPT Classic’?

One more link from OpenAI’s Help Center, this one explaining how to upgrade from the old Mac app to the new “super” app version:

Follow the prompt in the app to download the new ChatGPT desktop app. Then sign in with the same ChatGPT account.

The new app may install alongside your current app. If both remain installed, you will see:

  • ChatGPT: The new app with Chat, Work, and Codex.
  • ChatGPT Classic: The previous ChatGPT desktop app. You can continue using it; no migration is required at launch. It continues to receive model updates, bug fixes, security patches, and support for its existing Enterprise capabilities. New agent features may be available only in the new app.

None of this has been my experience. I had the existing old ChatGPT app installed on three different Macs. On all three of them, the built-in “Check for Updates” command only installs the latest version of the classic app. This is good, I suppose. But if you’re not aware from following the news that OpenAI released an altogether new “super” app for MacOS and Windows, you’d never know it from the Check for Updates command built into the classic Mac app.

So I don’t see “the prompt in the app to download the new ChatGPT desktop app”. If I download the new app manually, I get a disk image. After mounting the disk image, the instructions say to double-click the “ChatGPT” app on the disk image — not to drag it to the Applications folder. If I do that while the old ChatGPT app is still running, it bounces back and forth a few times but nothing new gets installed and nothing old gets removed or renamed. I’m just left with the classic ChatGPT app, still named “ChatGPT”.

If I run the installer on the disk image when the old ChatGPT app is not running, the old app gets replaced by the new one in my Applications folder, and the old app is moved to the Trash. There is no app named “ChatGPT Classic”.

I mean, their Help document does say “the new app may install alongside your current app”, and “if both remained installed”, so they seem just as confused as I am. And while you can, for now at least, just remain on the old version of the app and still get model updates and bug fixes, there is seemingly no way to download a new copy of the classic ChatGPT Mac app if you don’t already have a copy. The update installation is seemingly non-deterministic.

This is an app with over a billion users. I know there aren’t a billion users of the native Mac app, but, still. It’s one of the most popular apps any company has ever made, and the biggest update they’ve ever shipped is an incoherent confusing mess.

 ★ 

Links 7/11/26

Links for you. Science:

Why we don’t know what food is spreading the parasite sickening thousands. There’s a lag between when people consume the parasite and when symptoms appear, making it tough for those infected to remember what they ate to pinpoint the problem. (though Listeria infections suffer from the same problem; article does mention the genomic diagnostics difficulties however)
Two of Texas’s Deadliest Pests Are Bound to Clash. Will Anybody Win?
How Oregon cut pesticide-related bee deaths
The Heat Is On
The administration has a new climate change office. It’s headed by a climate criticglobal warming denialist.
Don’t ‘never-skill’ yourself with AI
The Trump Administration’s Existential Threat to Scientific Research

Other:

The Insurgency Will Continue Until Morale Improves. How Democratic voters began to question, and ultimately lost faith in, their party’s establishment: a comprehensive history. (excellent, must-read)
The Office Amenity That Actually Improves Teamwork (realistically, it’s office doors)
Trump Plans to Fence in Historic Space for Political Protests. Trump is moving to shut down all protests outside the White House. (when Trump closed Lafayette temporarily in 2020, that led to protests on the sidewalk & then to the tear gassing by St. John’s, which, in turn, massively swelled the size of D.C.’s BLM protests, so this might not have the result they think it will…)
Admitted killer wins GOP governor’s nomination in Colorado
Federal Investigators Say Certain DOGE Records Were Deleted. A government report claims DOGE didn’t access sensitive systems. It also says the agency deleted records that would show if they had.
Platner’s Daniel Moraff Barred from Summer Lee’s Campaign Over Sexual Misconduct Complaints
Migrants who saw man killed by ICE in Houston say he did not ram officers
It’s Not the AI. It’s the Lawyer: We Don’t Have a Hallucination Problem, We Have a Serious Ethics Problem
Graham Platner sounded like a fighter, but in the end, the man from Maine was a petulant child
ICE killed Lorenzo Salgado Araujo. They want you to be apathetic. Don’t be.
Voters on SNAP are sad after voting for anti-SNAP party
Flock Cameras Screw Up, Swarm Innocent Man With Armed Police
The Anti-Amazon
How Palestinians Are Building a Digital Archive That Can’t Be Erased
Once Unimaginable, Publishers Are Preparing to Opt Out of Google Search
Madison Square Garden Kept a List of Gay Celebrities
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But Y

It's no mystery to me why the Tesla Model Y is the world's best-selling car. As a total package, I could make a fair argument  that it's simply because it is the world's best car. 

I'm no stranger to Teslas at this point. We've owned a Model S Plaid, the Model X we traded in on the Y, and we still have the Cyberbeast too. But as impressive as all those cars are, the Y towers above them in several key respects, but first and foremost, value.

The premium all-wheel-drive white-on-white seven-seater we just got was right around $55,000. That's not exactly cheap, but it's less than half of what we spent on any of the other Teslas. It's a quarter of what we spent on the Porsche Taycan Turbo S. It's a sixth of what a new Aston Martin DBX would set you back. And, if I could just have one car, I'd pick the Y over all of them.

The first thing you notice coming from earlier Tesla models is just how well-built the new Model Y is. The gigapress process that produces these new cars results in a package that feels reassuringly solid: no squeaks, no rattles, no flex. This couldn't be said about any of the earlier S and X models we had.

But compared to other makes, it's not exactly revolutionary that a brand-new car feels well put together. Many other makes have managed to perfect that process over the decades. Tesla has now merely leapfrogged itself to the front of the class. But what very much is revolutionary is just how effortless owning the Y feels.

It starts with entry and exit. Once you've paired your phone, you never think about keys or starting or stopping the car again. It just happens. There's no on/off button, no starter, no unlock. Again, other makes have made attempts at this, but none that I've tried is even close to the effortlessness that Tesla's superior software stack is able to deliver.

Speaking of software: It just works. Every time. Going anywhere. You don't miss Apple CarPlay or Android Auto for a second. The navigation, the Spotify integration, the setup. Everything feels like it was written by a leading American software company. Not subcontractors out of India or firmware developers forced to deal with user interfaces.

But where everything comes together is FSD. The self-driving technology that Tesla pushed against all odds for over a decade is finally here in an utterly magical incarnation. The car not just drives itself anywhere, it drives better than almost any human I've ever been driven by has been able to do. Its ability to anticipate traffic patterns, hit the perfect deceleration curve towards a light, slow down for even minor speed bumps, and gracefully curve around pedestrians or cyclists is nearly unbelievable. 

As in, you'd be forgiven the suspicion that there must be a human driver hidden somewhere controlling the car over the internet. But it's just AI, and it's gotten fiendishly better over just the past year or so. All in service of that effortless experience.

In fact, I'd go so far as to call it a luxurious experience. Like you're being escorted by the Queen's own driver to your desired destination. The Queen wouldn't bother with keys or rattles or driving. She'd just get in, be driven, and arrive fresh for a waive. This is the best approximation you can buy for mortal money today.

But then, unlike the old X, it's actually also surprisingly delightful to grab the wheel yourself, hustle it down a hill, lean it into some fun corners, and surge out on that wave of endless torque that electric motors always deliver so well. 

No, it's not a Porsche 911, but I'd say it's 90% as fun as a Taycan, at a fraction of the price, in a package that's endlessly more practical, and — did I mention this already? — can drive itself once you're done with the spirited part of the journey.

The Tesla Model Y is a triumph of capitalism. Making the best self-driving technology available to the masses at a price that's accessible to the middle class in a car that even billionaires would appreciate. 

Andy Warhol captured this egalitarian celebration well with this sentiment: “A Coke is a Coke and no amount of money can get you a better Coke than the one the bum on the corner is drinking. All the Cokes are the same and all the Cokes are good.”

The Tesla Model Y is an incredible car for nearly everyone.

20260710_092822-medium.jpg

Rigging the 2026 Election

July 10, 2026

Presumably afraid of investigations into his actions, President Donald J. Trump appears to have abandoned all pretense of governing for the good of the country and is focusing on rigging the 2026 election to keep Republicans in power.

This morning, as the National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. home prices have hit an all-time high, he announced that he will not sign the housing bill, which was designed to address the unaffordability of housing and which passed Congress with strong bipartisan majorities, “in PROTEST over the fact that the United States Senate is not capable of passing THE SAVE AMERICA ACT.”

As the Lincoln Project summed it up, the Republican Party’s message four months before the midterms appears to be, “You’re not getting affordable housing unless you give up your voting rights.”

His demand for the passage of a bill that most observers agree will suppress voting is only one of the ways that Trump is trying to rig the 2026 election.

After federal judges have repeatedly prohibited the administration from seizing state voter lists, apparently to run them through a program designed to identify noncitizens who are not eligible for certain federal programs (something federal judges have also prohibited), Trump’s appointees at the Department of Justice appear to have turned to trying to intimidate election officials.

On Tuesday the Department of Justice confirmed that it has sent letters to election officials in all fifty states and Washington, D.C., warning them that they could be criminally prosecuted if noncitizens vote. The letters came from Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon, a Trump loyalist, and gave them five days to detail how they will maintain “clean voter lists.”

Utah lieutenant governor Deidre Henderson, a Republican, posted on social media: “Got another love letter this morning from the DOJ sprinkled throughout with threats of criminal prosecution. I’m sure I’m not the only chief election officer of a state who is being targeted for following state and federal laws by resisting DOJ’s demands for private voter data that have thus far been ruled illegal by at least a dozen courts. This is truly bizarre behavior by the federal agency that is supposed to be protecting civil rights.”

Last night, Trump fired the last two Democratic members of the Election Assistance Commission (EAC), an independent federal commission that helps state and local officials make sure elections are smooth and secure. Among other things, it certifies voting machines and maintains the national mail-voter registration forms. The only other current member of the EAC, a Republican, resigned. The fourth member of the EAC, a Republican, resigned earlier this year.

A White House official told Justin Papp of CNBC that the Supreme Court recognized Trump’s authority to fire the agency officials in its June 29 Trump v. Slaughter decision, which overturned more than 90 years of precedent to rubber stamp the president’s right to fire agency officials who are not aligned with his political agenda.

“The President, and head of the Executive Branch, reserves the right to remove individuals that may not be totally aligned with the important task of securing America’s elections and ensuring every legal vote is counted,” the official told Papp. “The Slaughter decision gives the President precedence to do so.”

Legal analyst Harry Litman says this interpretation of the Slaughter decision is a stretch. He noted that “[n]othing in the agency cases held that Trump could simply shut down an agency of Congress’s creation. That’s what he has done with the [E]lection Assistance [C]ommission which now lacks commissioners to act. It’s taking the court’s cases to the ultimate conclusion and just disabling an important agency.”

The nonpartisan, nonprofit League of Women Voters, which works to protect the right to vote, called the removal of the Election Assistance Commission officials “a direct attack on the independence of our nation’s election infrastructure…. The American people deserve elections administered by trusted professionals, not shaped by political interference. This is not a routine personnel decision—it is a dangerous escalation in the effort to weaken the safeguards that protect free and fair elections in the November midterms.”

This is the backdrop for the news from Betsy Klein and Kaitlan Collins of CNN today that the White House is fortifying the White House entrance at the North Portico during Trump’s renovation of the Ionic columns there.

In March, Trump’s appointee to the Commission on Fine Arts, which advises Trump on design matters, urged replacing the historic Ionic columns with more ornate Corinthian columns that would match the ones Trump picked out for his ballroom. The White House says the work on the North Portico is “standard restoration work,” but did not answer CNN’s question about whether there would be more substantial changes to the North Portico. Trump recently posted pictures of the Corinthian columns at his proposed ballroom, boasting that “When completed, there will be nothing like it anywhere in the World!”

While the focus has been on the historic columns and their possible replacement, it is not until now we have learned about the strengthening of the White House door. The portico is now covered with scaffolding that is covered with a drape, and a White House official told Klein and Collins that the renovations will include security enhancements at the request of the U.S. Secret Service.

Dan Diamond of the Washington Post also reported today that under the Trump administration, the Secret Service, the White House, and the Interior Department are seeking to place permanent eight- to nine-foot-tall fencing around Lafayette Square, where tourists and protesters congregate, in front of the White House. They are also considering fencing off the parts of Pennsylvania Avenue near the White House. In the past, when officials believed it was necessary to shut off access to Lafayette Square, they used temporary barriers to avoid the perception that they were restricting public access to what is known as the People’s House.

Eleanor Holmes Norton, the nonvoting congressional representative from the District of Columbia., objected. “More fencing around the President’s Park would send the wrong message to the nation and the world by continuing to transform our democracy from one that is accessible and of the people to one that is exclusive and fearful of its own citizens,” she said.

Tonight, at 11:59 PM, the housing bill became law without the president’s signature.

Notes:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-home-prices-hit-an-all-time-high-as-sales-slow-and-mortgage-rates-rise

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/09/trump-fires-election-commissioners

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-fires-election-assistance-commission-leadership/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/trump-fires-election-assistance-commission-members-ahead-midterms-rcna353781

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/doj-warns-criminal-charges-state-election-officials-non-citizen-voting-rcna353433

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/trump-purges-election-assistance-commission.html

https://www.lwv.org/newsroom/press-releases/league-women-voters-condemns-president-trumps-removal-election-assistance?utm_source=copilot.com

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/09/politics/white-house-columns-trump-construction

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/10/politics/white-house-front-door-fortification

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/03/15/white-house-columns-ionic-corinthian/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/10/trump-plan-would-fence-pennsylvania-avenue-outside-white-house/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-plan-would-fence-pennsylvania-avenue-outside-white-house/ar-AA27CUyN

https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5885027/housing-bill-without-trump-signature

Trumpstruth.org:

statuses/39595

Bluesky:

lincolnproject.us/post/3mqcdfiwwh72n

harrylitman.bsky.social/post/3mqci7yv6m225

Threads:

@deidrehenderson/post/Daf_6faFINL

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Generated and suppressed demand.

Stages of a performing team, revised for 2026

Eight years ago, I wrote about my theory of restoring struggling teams, which came down to four steps:

  1. A team is falling behind if each week their backlog is longer than the week before. Solve by hiring more.
  2. A team is treading water if they’re able to get their critical work done, but are not able to start paying down technical debt or start major new projects. Solve by reducing work-in-progress.
  3. A team is repaying debt when they’re able to start paying down technical debt, but progress still feels slow. Solve by staying the course: it’s actually working, you just have to keep the faith until you finish digging out.
  4. A team is innovating when their technical debt is sustainably low, morale is high, and the majority of work is satisfying new user needs. There’s nothing left to solve, at this point.

Even now, I find this mental model extremely valuable, but I do think it is missing one interesting nuance that I’ve seen many teams run into in high-growth environments: suppressed and generated demand. Suppressed demand is the idea of incoming work that isn’t incoming, because teams stop asking you for help. Generated demand is when an increasingly effective team’s progress is noticed, and the previously suppressed demand is converted into actual demand.

Generated demand

The consequence of generated demand is that a team that was struggling can successfully recover, work through much of its backlog, and then shortly thereafter be just as far underwater as they were at their worst. This is a very disorienting experience, and even a demoralizing one. The team has done everything right, shipped a bunch of genuinely valuable work, and are nonetheless just as far underwater as they were before.

To give a concrete example, our Customer Operations Engineering team didn’t exist a year ago, and instead we invested in customer operations engineering tasks by prioritizing them into a larger team’s tasks. This often meant we had very valuable projects that didn’t get staffed. We then split it out into its own team, launching a number of projects like reworking our internal customer operations tooling and integrating Sierra for our IVR, both of which worked out quite well. As a result of working out well, there are far more requests for work. Despite accomplishing so much, the team is even further behind on the incoming requests than they were a year ago, when they had shipped relatively little and had relatively little capacity to ship more.

Unfortunately, the solution here is not particularly novel: you have to run through the cycle again. And potentially a third time. And potentially a fourth time. You just have to keep running through it until you’ve surfaced the entire backlog of suppressed demand. This is very similar to the problem of latent incidents which cause effective reliability programs to look like they’re failing as they drain the stock of previously created latent incidents. Sometimes you’re doing the right thing, and it just takes a while to work. Your challenge in that moment is building conviction that you are indeed doing the right thing, and convincing your team and leadership of that as well.

Finally, it’s interesting to attempt to predict which teams are, and which aren’t, sitting on top of a backlog of suppressed demand. Some teams run through the recovery cycle, and find that there simply isn’t much else to do. These tend to be teams with very narrow interfaces, for example a team whose job is providing internal queues probably won’t have much generated demand after clearing the initial backlog. Teams with broad interfaces, like customer operations or developer experience, are generally sitting on an incredibly large, albeit currently invisible, backlog of suppressed work.

6× faster binary search: from compiled code to mechanical sympathy

How do you speed up computational Python code? A common, and useful, starting point is:

  1. Pick a good algorithm.
  2. Use a compiled language to write a Python extension.
  3. Maybe add parallelism so you can use multiple CPU cores.

But what if you need more speed? Consider the following real problem, one of the steps in scikit-learn’s gradient histogram boosting algorithm:

  • You have a large array of floating point numbers.
  • You want to assign them to the integer range 0-254, spread out evenly.

scikit-learn implements this by splitting up the full range of float values into 255 buckets, creating a sorted array of bucket boundaries, and then using binary search to choose the appropriate bucket for each value. The binary search is implemented in a compiled language, and it can run in parallel on multiple cores.

Recently, as part of my work at Quansight, and inspired by two posts by Paul Khuong, I sped up this implementation significantly. How? By making sure the code wasn’t fighting against the CPU.

In this article I’m going to walk you through that speed-up, demonstrated on a simplified example. Then I’m going to demonstrate a series of additional optimizations, with the final version running 6× faster than the original one.

It’s worth knowing that I will be speeding through mentions of many different low-level hardware topics: instruction-level parallelism, branch (mis)prediction, memory caches, SIMD, and more. This is only one article, it can only briefly introduce you to what’s possible, it can’t function as an in-depth tutorial. So I’ll talk about how you can learn more about these topics at the end of the article.

Read more...

Parabilis tests propulsion system for maneuverable cubesats

The Space Force is backing the development of the company’s hybrid engine technology for small satellites

The post Parabilis tests propulsion system for maneuverable cubesats appeared first on SpaceNews.

FCC approves first Reflect Orbital satellite

Reflect Orbital satellite

The Federal Communications Commission has given its approval for a satellite that will test the ability to reflect sunlight into nighttime regions, a project sharply criticized by astronomers and environmentalists.

The post FCC approves first Reflect Orbital satellite appeared first on SpaceNews.

Examples from sci-fi of voice interfaces that stay on task

I wonder how you would design a really single-minded voice UI?

Like, voice interfaces are really good now because of AI.

But they’re so unbounded. If you’re having a voice interaction with a computer or with a device, you could end up having a conversation about anything.

And while a voice UI is great within a domain, do you really want to be gossiping about movies or having a psychotherapy session with your fridge? I mean, at that point what even is a product?

i.e. how would you have a single purpose Alexa?

So I’ve been spelunking Technovelgy for things that speak but only in a limited domain.

(Technovelgy is a database of over 4,000 inventions from sci-fi.)


Like this ATM that discourages long convos:

He headed for the ATM in the back… he knew it was watching him as he walked up to it.

“Identify yourself, please.” Lucky Dragon ATMs all had this same voice, a weird, uptight, strangled little castrato voice … probably kept people from standing around, [talking] with it…

All Tomorrow’s Parties, William Gibson, Lucky Dragon ATM


You can’t imagine this smug door talking about anything else except its fee. It would accuse you of changing the subject.

The door refused to open. It said, “Five cents, please.”

He searched his pockets. No more coins; nothing. “I’ll pay you tomorrow,” he told the door. Again it remained locked tight. “What I pay you,” he informed it, “is in the nature of a gratuity; I don’t have to pay you.”

“I think otherwise,” the door said. “Look in the purchase contract you signed when you bought this conapt.”

…he found the contract. Sure enough; payment to his door for opening and shutting constituted a mandatory fee. Not a tip.

“You discover I’m right,” the door said. It sounded smug.

Ubik, Philip K. Dick, Toll Door


Doors are often single-minded.

As the door closed behind them it became apparent that it did indeed have a satisfied sigh-like quality to it. “Hummmmmmmyummmmmmm ah!” it said.

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams, Self-Satisfied Door


For obvious reasons I like this singing clock, although the user doesn’t appear to speak back to it.

In the living room the voice-clock, Tick-tock, seven o’clock, time to get up, time get up, seven o’clock! as if it were afraid that nobody would.

Somewhere in the walls, relays clicked, memory tapes glided under electric eyes.

Eight-one, tick-tock, eight-one o’clock, off to school, off to work, run, run, eight-one!

The Martian Chronicles, Ray Bradbury, Voice-Clock


As it happens I did once build a speaking clock based on Poem/1.

It was made from a Yoto player, and when you stuck a special card in then it would tell the time by speaking a poem out loud every 15 minutes. (I was given earlier access to the expanded developer API.)

It was enormously distracting haha

UNTIL:

I switched the speaking clock voice to an ASMR voice from ElevenLabs (which it turns out they go).

It turned out that, if you’re in the zone, a whispered poem doesn’t intrude on your focus. It’s like the traffic outside or the soft wind in the trees. You don’t notice.

But if you’re not focusing, you hear the ASMR whisper as a kind of chime.

It was weird in a short demo, but the attentional impedance matching was absolutely perfect as a device in your room.

I should share a video at some point.


My absolute favourite is this hotel that wants to exist.

This Texan hotel, for instance, was an entirely virtual construction, ones and zeros embedded in a set of chips. And yet, the hotel direly wanted to exist. It would become very beautiful, and it was already very smart. It could sweet-talk itself into physical existence from random piles of raw materials.

Oscar lugged the self-declared cornerstone to the corner of the southern wall. “I belong here,” the cornerstone declared. “Put mortar on me.”

Oscar picked up a trowel. “I’m the tool for the mortar,” the little trowel squeaked cheerfully.

Distraction, Bruce Sterling, Bambakias Hotel

I love this idea: a pile of bricks and tools, and a speaker that calls out to passers-by and asks for favours.

We’ve spent decades using technology to commoditise labour. Why not use it to commoditise management?

There’s more detail:

Oscar peeled a strip of tape from a yellow spool and wrapped the tape around a cinder block. He swept a hand-scanner over the block, activating the tape…

“I’m a cornerstone,” the cinder block announced.

“Good for you,” Oscar grunted.

“I’m a cornerstone. Carry me five steps to your left.” The construction system was smart enough to manage a limited and specific vocabulary. Unfortunately, the system simply didn’t hear very well. The tiny microphones embedded in the talking tape were much less effective than the tape’s thumbnail-sized speakers. Still, it was hard not to reply to a concrete block when it spoke up with such grace and authority. The concrete blocks all sounded like Franklin Roosevelt.

Distraction, Bruce Sterling, Talking Tape

It’s not just the “telling you what to do” which is clever here (you could do it today by playing the appropriate YouTube while you assemble an IKEA wardrobe). It’s the wiki-like crowdsourcing and automatic coordination.


This isn’t to do with voice, but I like this single-minded toaster that takes its destiny into its own hands:

As a connected toaster, he’s in constant contact with other connected toasters like him – and thus keenly aware of how much action they’re getting. If he’s not being used as much as his friends, Brad gets upset. He’ll wiggle his little handle to get your attention, begging you to make some toast or at least to give him a reassuring pat on the side. Ignore him long enough, and he’ll take a more drastic measure: pinging a network of potential owners to find a new home.

From 2014! By Simone Rebaudengo of the brilliant oio.studio.


BONUS REFERENCE:

Golden Gate Claude (2024), a research project by Anthropic that was online for 24 hours only and connects all conversation back to the Golden Gate Bridge.

If you ask this “Golden Gate Claude” how to spend $10, it will recommend using it to drive across the Golden Gate Bridge and pay the toll. If you ask it to write a love story, it’ll tell you a tale of a car who can’t wait to cross its beloved bridge on a foggy day.


Back in the day, text adventures were games with a natural language interface.

Zork (1977) was the first well-known one.

Here’s a list of the what the language parser says in response to various errors, straight from the source code of the final PDP-10 version of Zork from 1981:

  • "I don’t know the word [word]"
  • "I can’t make sense out of that."
  • "Huh?"
  • "Two verbs in command?"
  • "Double preposition?"
  • "Multiple inputs cannot be used with [verb]"
  • "Too many objects specified?"
  • "Beg pardon?"

I like the straightforwardness of this: some errors are plain old “syntax error” complaints but others are educating the user about the way the system works.


No conclusions, just thinking.


Auto-detected kinda similar posts:

Mental health sentences to ponder

Christoph Henking and Ben Baumberg Geiger found that while there has been a steep rise in the share of young Britons reporting a mental illness, the share of people who say a mental health problem limits their day-to-day functioning has barely budged.

…when asked if they would consider someone experiencing typical fluctuations in mood (described as broad happiness but occasional moments of worry, frustration or loss of confidence) as having a mental illness, more than half of young Americans say yes, up from just a fifth 15 years ago. Older people’s views show no such change.

Here is more from John Burn-Murdoch at the FT.  I would second his numerous caveats, and you should not consider this at all conclusive.  But the alternative perspective is not conclusive either.

The post Mental health sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets

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With everything else going on, the ongoing demolition of financial regulation and supervision, which is raising the risks of financial crisis, isn’t getting much attention. So I spoke with Dennis Kelliher, president of Better Markets, an independent think tank that is trying to sound the alarm.

Full disclosure: my nephew works at Better Markets. But I would have wanted to talk to Kelleher regardless.

. . .

TRANSCRIPT:
Paul Krugman in Conversation with Dennis Kelleher

(recorded 7/10/26)

Paul Krugman: Hi everyone. It seems hard to believe now, but the great financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath are now in the distant past. I think, in fact, in November there will be some voters who weren’t born yet. But for some of us, it was a huge, defining event, and financial markets as a source of economic problems and instability hasn’t gone away. And I thought I would talk with Dennis Kelleher, who is the head of Better Markets, an independent think tank devoted to trying to make financial markets work better for the rest of us. And in the note, I’ll mention I do have a personal connection to Better Markets, but that’s not why I’m interviewing Mr. Kelleher. Dennis is a former Senate aide, and as you know, congressional staffers are one of the great sources of expertise in America. And we want to talk about financial markets, so hi.

Dennis Kelleher: Hi. Thanks for having me, Paul. Good to see you.

Krugman: Good to see you, too. I have a bunch of questions, but we can go wherever this goes. The first thing is, whenever I try to talk about financial market functioning, what comes up is that most financial assets are owned by a relatively small part of the population, even if you take 401(k)s into account. So why isn’t this just a fight among the investor class? Why should everyone care about this?

Kelleher: Well, it’s a great question because there’s such a lack of information about financial markets, the financial system, and frankly, as you well know, the economy. You know, one of the great services that you and many of your colleagues have provided is basically translating what’s happening in the economy and financial markets to the average Main Street American, reader of the New York Times, and consumers of news. And the truth is that the financial markets and obviously the economy impact everybody, and you’re right.

This November during the election, some of the people voting will not have actually had any awareness of the 2008 financial crash, which was the biggest crash in the United States since 1929, which caused the Great Depression. And even though they may not have been born at that time, the people who are voting in November are still living through the repercussions of the 2008 crash. We basically lost an entire generation of Americans, economically speaking, from that crash.

It took ten years for the U-6, the broad unemployment rate, to return to pre-crash levels. It was 2017 before that happened. And indeed, the Fed did an interesting study, which people can quibble with the baseline, but they did a study in 2018 that showed at the end of 2016, 90% of Americans were poorer than they were in 2007 by 17 to 35 percent. So if you think about that, at the end of 2016, the best-off American in that ninety percent bucket was 17% poorer. Now you could say the baseline of 2007 was inflated, but by and large, 90% of Americans have been doing pretty poorly since the crash for a lot of reasons.

And so in November, when those people go to vote, they might not know it but they are actually living through the continuing economic consequences, financial consequences, and actually political consequences. Because the rise of Trump and the dissatisfaction of voters, Americans, and actually voters in the UK and elsewhere—Martin Wolf from the Financial Times wrote a terrific book called The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. It shows how if countries don’t deliver for the broad population, then democracy erodes and people look for easy answers, authoritarians, and strongmen. And we end up with Brexit, we end up with Trump.

And so you’re right. People don’t remember the crash, but the crash is incredibly important to everybody in America. And the circumstances that we find ourselves in today are unfortunately echoing many of the drivers of that crash.

Now, I didn’t answer your question about the investor class, but when you look at investors, something like 87% of the value of the stock market is owned by the top 10%. On the other hand, there are today $27 trillion worth of assets in 401(k)s and IRAs, retirement accounts. It’s overwhelmingly skewed to the top, but not only. And importantly, one of the great projects that America really needs to undertake is to democratize finance so that financial assets and the ability to grow wealth is more broadly spread out. One of the big crippling problems we have today is that the bottom 50% of Americans, about 165 million Americans, only have 2.5% of the wealth of the country. It’s astonishing, right?

And so a big part of what Better Markets does in economic and financial policy making is to try and rebalance what we see as a rigged economy that’s driven by a rigged and broken financial system. So our economy is producing very well for the top ten percent, and our financial system is structured to deliver those results. Now, part of that is wealth extraction, but a lot of it is just structural drivers put in place by policy makers in Washington that cater to the top ten percent. And that, unfortunately, Paul, as you know, is on a bipartisan basis.

Krugman: We’re gonna get into that in a bit, but let me just ask a question. I’m gonna actually kind of veer off course, although this is something I wanted to get to. Top ten percent. So basically, ownership of stock is, roughly speaking, a top ten percent activity. When you talk about skewed, I mean, I have a sense that it is actually increasingly skewed towards a fraction of a fraction. Do you have anything I should take away about how the system is rigged or skewed within the stock-owning population?

Kelleher: Well, I think the problem is that the higher up you go on the wealth scale, the greater your ability to accumulate even more wealth in a tax-free fashion, right? And then to pass it along to both use it today as if it was cash and income, not be taxed on it, use it, and then hand it off through inheritance without being taxed to heirs for multi-generational wealth concentration at the top. It’s bad for the economy and bad for democracy.

I mean, you’ve talked to Ro Khanna and there’s all sorts of people with different ideas about what to do. We’ve got a wealth tax on the ballot in California. But in terms of the structural drivers, one of the problems we see at Better Markets is that Democrats don’t pay enough attention to the financial structural drivers of the economy. So here’s just a simple example that people are often surprised by.

Community banks in the United States—there’s about a little over four thousand of them. You see them on every corner across America, particularly in “real America,” as opposed to where you and I live, Paul, which is by no means real America. But those banks lend out seventy-five cents on average of every dollar of deposit. The big Wall Street banks, they lend out somewhere less than fifty cents of every dollar of deposit. And that’s because it’s so much more profitable for them catering to the rich, mostly engaging in financial activities, trading, and capital markets activities.

And so ask yourself, why is that? Well, that’s because the rules enacted by the banking regulators and Congress and other regulators allow the profit margins on the financialized trading side to be so much greater than on the lending side. I mean, truthfully, the rules that are created in Washington actually discriminate against lending to the real economy.

And so you have community banks which don’t have capital markets activities. They’re bread-and-butter banks for the most part. It depends on how you define community banks; some people define them all the way up to Wall Street, but those are people in the propaganda industry. But these are banks that are actually driving the real economy. So for example, the community banks have somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% of the total assets of the banking system, but they actually provide somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% of all loans to small businesses.

Krugman: Right.

Kelleher: Well, why are we not having rules that skew towards benefiting the real productive economy and away from the trading financialized activities which serve the very top one or two percent and not the rest? And actually, it not only doesn’t serve the rest of the country, it’s at the expense of the rest of the country. Better Markets put out a report showing that last year the growth in major Wall Street bank lending to what are called “non-banks” grew by 50%. Do you know what their lending to the real economy grew by? Zero. Zero. And so a lot of these activities are being pushed out into what are called non-banks because it’s more profitable. It’s more profitable because the rules make it more profitable. The rules are created in Washington by policymakers, regulators, and legislators who, unfortunately, too often are beholden to the wrong people. And so you end up with this cycle where the rules keep reinforcing the current structure that’s channeling activity and money to the top and away from Main Street.

Krugman: So as I understood it, reading some of Better Markets’ reports, if you’re a big financial institution, lending to non-banks probably ends up being a roundabout route by which the money reaches lenders, but not through the original bank. They actually have kind of a regulatory advantage because it’s lower capital requirements. If I got that right?

Kelleher: Well, it’s lower capital requirements, it’s lower requirements across the board. Capital is one of the core drivers, but it’s not the only one.

Krugman: So if you put your money with Citigroup or another one of the big financial institutions, it’s not going to be lent out, or much of it will not be lent out to small business or households. It’ll be lent to others; it’ll kind of divert around and it’ll in effect be channeled into what you consider a worse way through which the money reaches the rest of the economy. Is that a fair summary?

Kelleher: That’s a fair summary of part of it. Keep in mind a lot of this money is funding hedge funds doing big basis trades, basically swinging for the fences. I’m not saying there’s no value at any hedge fund to the real economy, but when you look at their activities, that’s not exactly what I would call beneficial lending to the real, productive economy. Private equity is basically a strip-and-rip business model. It gets their money from the banks. Almost everything goes back to the banks, and that’s because deposit money is the safest, soundest, and cheapest source of funding for economic activities.

And so the banks have got the money, and what they decide is: where are they going to send it? Are they going to send it over here to lend to Main Street businesses where their profit margin is modest, or go over here to hedge funds, private equity, or other financialized activities—business development corporations, crypto, all sorts of things where the profit margin is large? They’re making rational economic decisions in their self-interest to profit maximize.

The question is: why are the people in Washington structuring it that way so that their profit margins are like that? The current capital rules that we’re fighting about, Paul, are supposed to change that. And in fact, what they’re supposed to do is have, for example, the trading activities accurately reflect the risk associated with them. And if they accurately did that, the capital requirements for those activities would be much higher. Not only are the banking agencies with the Federal Reserve in the lead not doing that, but when they’re done with the proposed capital rules, capital at the biggest, most dangerous banks in the United States is going to be back to the levels roughly before what they were before the 2008 crash.

I mean, think about that. It’s crazy, right? Here’s something that’s even crazier: a bunch of those big banks are going to have capital rules and capital levels that are roughly similar to community banks.

Krugman: Which are low, because they’re in a very safe business, right?

Kelleher: Yes. Well, right. The systemic risk to the economy of community banks, first of all as an absolute matter, is pretty low. But relative to the giants on Wall Street, they’re infinitesimal; they’re not even comparable. And we’ve got a Federal Reserve, particularly the Vice Chairman of Supervision and Regulation over there, that acts as if she’s the primary lobbyist for Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan Chase.

She even hired three of Wall Street’s top lobbyist lawyers to be her senior advisors. I’m not making this up. One was a vice president at Goldman Sachs. One was one of Wall Street’s top lawyers at one of the top Wall Street law firms for 35 years. And the other one was a top executive at Wall Street’s biggest trade group in Washington. Those are her three top advisors.

Krugman: Are you talking about Fed employees or outside consultants?

Kelleher: No, they’re Fed employees. They’re on staff. We put out a press release about her hiring the three of them. I mean, this is not just the fox guarding the hen house; this is the fox in charge of all operations of the hen house. So the lawyer who was on Wall Street for 35 years, serving his clients for 35 years—all of the banks—is now the Director of Regulation and Supervision at the Federal Reserve of his former clients, and the right-hand top staffer for the Vice Chairman of Supervision and Regulation on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. And so anybody who is surprised that the Fed is now enacting or proposing rules incredibly favorable to the biggest banks on Wall Street...

And it’s not just capital, Paul. I mean, one of the tradeoffs here is that banks get to have a somewhat unique role in the United States, right? They get to accumulate all these activities and take people’s deposits. Main Street American deposits are how these banks fund themselves, largely. And then we insure that money through the FDIC so people have confidence that they’ll get their money back. But the exchange is: we regulate them so that they don’t actually threaten the economy and financial system of the United States because they’re so big. So that means they’re supervised.

People don’t know this, but every day, people who work for the Federal Reserve and are paid by the American people, go to work at the biggest banks, supervising them. They literally have an office there. They go in, look at the books and records, and talk to people all day long at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and Citigroup. That’s called supervision. It’s basically invisible but incredibly important. But the Fed is not only cutting back on capital and regulation like stress tests and other important safety features; they’re also gutting supervision. And so they’re basically unleashing the biggest banks in the United States from modest, sensible regulation and supervision that’s supposed to protect Main Street jobs, homes, and savings from high-risk, reckless, and inappropriate conduct by these gigantic banks. We saw in 2008 what happens when you don’t regulate them or supervise them. And we actually just saw it again in 2023.

Krugman: Right. This is 2023 with the Silicon Valley Bank and all of that, right?

Kelleher: 2023 there were four big bank failures. Three of the four biggest bank failures in the history of the United States happened in 2023. People don’t realize it.

Krugman: Even I didn’t realize that, and I’m supposed to be on top of these things. And this is happening incredibly fast, right? Normally we think you forget the lessons of the last financial crisis basically once people age out of the business and nobody is around who really remembers it. But we were dealing with the aftermath of 2008 just fifteen or sixteen years ago. And you’re saying that basically we’re fully back to that kind of Wild West, no-supervision world, or maybe worse.

Kelleher: Well, we’re getting there, and the direction is there. We’re not quite there yet, but the thrust of what’s happening now is broader, deeper, and more reckless than it was in the years leading up to the 2008 crash. I mean, if you think about it, it’s quite amazing. The so-called shadow banking system—non-bank financial institutions—today is bigger than it was in ‘08 and less regulated.

Krugman: That’s what I was going to say. Yeah.

Kelleher: And it was identified as one of the primary drivers of the ‘08 crash.

Krugman: That’s right. I mean, I remember very vividly in the fall of 2008, the conventional wisdom, even in textbooks—including my own—said, “Well, we can”t have a 1931-style banking crisis because the banks are insured and regulated,” and then the week of Lehman’s failure was, “Sixty percent of the banking system is shadow banks.” And you’re saying that we’re back to that and more now.

Kelleher: Yeah, I don’t remember the exact percentage, but yes. And what’s worse is they’re less regulated today than they were then in many material respects. And now a lot of people think, “Well, it’s hard to worry about big catastrophic events when there’s a lot going on every day.” But this is happening fast, and because there’s so much happening in the Trump chaos machine—where there’s not a scandal a day, it’s like almost an hour.

You know, J.D. Vance, who I almost never agree with on anything, said in a speech recently at the Nixon Library that if the Nixon crimes happened today, it wouldn’t even last a full news cycle. And he’s probably right. And so a lot of this is not only happening fast, it’s happening invisibly because just a very small slice of what’s happening is getting into the media. Meanwhile, the industry termites are working day and night in the policy-making process in Washington, eating away at the foundations of the financial stability of the United States.

Krugman: You’ve been talking a lot about the Federal Reserve, which is critical because it traditionally has been the more competent, less politicized piece. And you’re basically saying that now that piece of the Fed has effectively been captured. Is that a fair description?

Kelleher: The Fed has unfortunately been largely captured. It’s being run by people who have an agenda that is not consistent with the best interest of the American people, frankly. I’m not talking about the monetary policy side—that’s a whole different discussion—but on the supervision and regulation side, they are not acting consistently with the best interest of Main Street Americans. Wall Street is winning day in and day out in the policy fights.

Krugman: Right.

Kelleher: There’s going to be news coming out, I think, over the next several weeks, maybe months, that will illustrate that pretty starkly. It’s really quite astonishing what has happened at the Fed. And don’t get me wrong—there are a lot of good, hardworking, dedicated public servants at the Fed who nobody will ever see or acknowledge, who have been fighting the good fight for many years. But the leadership at the Federal Reserve at this point—the Trump leadership—is doing to the Federal Reserve what’s being done everywhere.

Now, we know we had two big Supreme Court cases recently which supposedly cabined off the Federal Reserve from direct political control by the President, unlike the other agencies, and that’s true, but it’s all relative, right? I mean, he now has direct political control of the SEC, CFTC, and everything from the NLRB to the FTC to the FCC—all the critically important regulatory agencies that have been in place since the New Deal, basically creating and enabling an economy to be profit-maximizing but still have adequate protections for the public. I mean, that’s the balance that we need to get.

And actually, a former colleague of yours, David Leonhardt, wrote a great book—and I always have it on my desk because I recommend it to people. It’s called Ours Was the Shining Future. It’s a great history of how the United States, post-Great Depression, built the largest middle class in the history of the world, really compressed gross income inequality, and created wealth in places people didn’t think it would happen. And he talks about how things changed when Reagan came in and kind of where we are now. But that was because we had a regulatory state.

Now, people can argue about what’s reasonable—how much is too much, how much is too little—but we struck a balance that enabled the SEC, the CFTC, the Federal Reserve, and other regulatory agencies, from labor to health to product safety. That balance took some of the craziness off the blind profit maximization built within the engine of the economy.

Now, the Supreme Court basically said last week that doesn’t exist anymore. What exists going forward is that the President gets to control all those agencies, and all those agencies are now subject to both the political agenda and the whim of whoever the President is.

Krugman: So, for listeners who may not know: SEC is the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is supposed to regulate stocks and corporate accounting and all of that. CFTC is the Commodities...

Kelleher: Futures Trading Commission, regulating derivatives and commodities. It’s the least known but a very important agency. For example, commodities: the bread in your lunch pail, the cereal in your breakfast bowl, the gas in your car, the heat in your home—all those markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Krugman: Yeah. And so Humphrey’s Executor, the case where the Supreme Court essentially said that Congress cannot establish a mandate and then expect an agency to fulfill it if the President doesn’t want to. That really affects all of these agencies, right?

Kelleher: Right. Actually, the case last week was Slaughter v. FTC, and that case overruled Humphrey’s Executor, which was a Supreme Court case from ninety years ago. I don’t remember exactly; it could be eighty. Contrary to what my kids often think, I haven’t been around that long.

Krugman: It’s ninety years ago because it was actually a ruling against FDR. FDR was trying to change something, and the Supreme Court said, “Well, that’s not what Congress said and you, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, cannot change it.” But now it’s been waived for Donald Trump.

Kelleher: Yeah, well, look. We have a right-wing Supreme Court—a supermajority—that is essentially creating, for the first time in American history, an all-powerful executive branch. As you know, it’s been referred to by legal scholars as the “unitary executive theory,” where essentially the President, whoever they are, gets to control the entire executive branch. And of course, over the last ninety years or so since the New Deal, we’ve had an administrative state that has, in key respects, put some brakes on the worst excesses of unrestrained profit-seeking. They’re just basic public protections.

I think of it as being like cars, right? Cars today are very safe; they have airbags, bumpers that are shock absorbers, glass that shatters and doesn’t kill you, and reinforced doors. What the Supreme Court is doing with Slaughter v. FTC and these other cases that are empowering the President is literally taking the airbags and bumpers off your car. Except the car, in this case, is the country. It’s our democracy, our economy, and our financial system. The safety aspects of that system that protect our democracy, economy, and financial system protect people’s jobs and savings.

And frankly, their safety—even things like the Consumer Product Safety Commission or the FDA. These acronyms can get confusing, but what they really are are safety mechanisms and protections for Main Street Americans from things that happen in a gigantic economy like the United States that would otherwise have really bad impacts on Main Street Americans, whether it’s their job, their health, their safety, or their savings—frankly, their families and their dreams. And that’s what these agencies do; some do it better than others, and I’m not saying they always get it right. They don’t; they get it wrong. We criticize them all the time. We criticize them when Democrats are in charge and we criticize them when Republicans are in charge. We also praise them when they do well. But we need them; we need these shock absorbers on an otherwise unrestrained economy that’s just profit-driven, and that’s what we’re seeing now.

Krugman: We’ve ended up talking a lot about the Fed, which has a critical supervisory role, but Better Markets has been writing a lot about the SEC lately, and there’s stuff happening there that’s barely being noticed. I’m barely seeing anything about it in the newspapers, and yet that’s just as important, right? There’s a lot going on at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Kelleher: So, the Securities and Exchange Commission was created in 1933. There were two laws: 1933 and 1934. And by the way, I should say if anybody’s really interested in this—I hate to sound like a book reviewer—but there’s some great stuff. Diana Henriques wrote a terrific book last year called Taming the Street, which is a history of the SEC, how it came about, why it’s so important, and what happened during the Great Depression. It’s also a history of the American economy, a bit like David Leonhardt’s book. And it’s an easy read.

But the SEC regulates investor protection in our markets. And you asked this earlier, Paul: why should anybody really care given that so many of these assets are owned by the top ten percent? Well, as you know, we basically have an economy funding pipeline—a capital pipeline, if you will—in our economy. People all over the country come up with ideas, some of which fail and some of which succeed. Those that succeed need capital to grow so that they can take it from their garage to a local store, to a factory, and to global markets.

Krugman: Right.

Kelleher: When they start, they end up using angel capital or friends and family. Ultimately they get a good idea and a venture capitalist. And then the big success used to be your company would go public on the stock exchange. That’s how companies generated enormous amounts of capital—which is just a fancy word for money. They got enough money to grow their business, build things, and hire a lot more people. It’s how we built the middle class.

And that’s what the SEC regulates: the public part of that capital pipeline—the big public markets like the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. They regulate both the disclosure obligations and they police those markets. They do that because what happened in the 1920s contributed mightily to the 1929 crash and the Great Depression. It was basically people who were lying, cheating, and stealing with almost no regulation at all. The big banks were often multi-headed financial conglomerates doing self-dealing and conflicts of interest. Not only didn’t they disclose things, but when they did, they often lied and defrauded people. A lot of that ended up being basically what we would think of today as Ponzi schemes—nothing really there except the people running the firms enriching themselves.

The SEC was created to make sure we had well-regulated and well-policed markets so investors wouldn’t get fleeced, providing capital for businesses to grow. And until very recently, the SEC was the global gold standard for investor protection. Well, that’s gone. The SEC under Trump has now moved from investor protection to management protection. It is as captured as, unfortunately, the Fed in many respects. It is cutting back on disclosures and investor rights.

For example, they’re even interfering with proxy advisors. It’s very difficult if you’re an investor to keep track of the proxies at all the public companies. The big investors have to vote on director appointments or major policy questions, so they hire proxy advisors, just like you would hire an advisor for anything else. Well, the SEC is now interfering with people hiring advisors to give them advice on proxies. How can you say I can’t contract with somebody to give me independent advice? They’re interfering with that because it makes investors more dependent upon management.

Krugman: Just explain to me how that works. How is the SEC blocking that? I’m just curious because that sounds important.

Kelleher: It is important, and the details are on our website. But at a very high level, there are two big proxy advisor firms that have a large amount of the market. And what you would do is hire them to provide tailored advice. For example, if you were interested in companies that were socially active and cared about the climate, you could tell your proxy advisor you want advice related to that. If you were on the other side and you loved fossil fuels, you could tell them that and the proxy advisor will tailor it to you. You then pay them, right? What the SEC said in one of its proposed rules—I’m not kidding—is that the proxy advisor had to submit any comment about a company to the company’s management, and management had the right to comment on it. Well, it’s the exact opposite of independent advice. How that’s even constitutional is beyond me.

The proxy advisory firms have been engaged in litigation I believe in Trump I and in Trump two, about the restrictions that they’re trying to put on independent proxy advice. It’s just one example. I actually put out a report called The SEC is Demolishing Investor Protection, Threatening Capital Formation and the US Economy, which detailed many of the actions they’re taking.

But the problem we have is that this isn’t just an issue for rich investors; it impacts the entire economy. One of the reasons people all over the world send their money to the United States capital markets is because they are well-regulated and well-policed. They’re not going to do that if those protections are gone. There’s already been reporting about people thinking about putting their money elsewhere. Now, because the US stock market is doing so well, you could argue it’s still a safe bet. By and large, there’s no other place that can compete robustly with the United States at the moment. Leave aside whether it’s a bubble or not. As an investment vehicle, it’s one of the top global places to put your money.

Well, that’s because—and this is what they don’t get, Paul—they are well-regulated and well-policed. You take that away, and you’re going to end up with crooked, rigged markets where you don’t know what happens to your money. And if that happens, that doesn’t just hurt the rich people who own most of the financial assets. That’s going to have impacts all the way down the capital formation pipeline to the real economy and people’s jobs.

Krugman: Okay. I was completely unaware that the SEC was doing all of that. But I just want to move on a bit. Better Markets has been writing quite a lot about crypto. Crypto has suddenly faded from public attention because there’s so much else going on, like AI. But crypto is still a two trillion dollar asset class. Talk to me about crypto and where it fits into all of this.

Kelleher: Well, to start with, we have been the tip of the spear fighting crypto since 2020. We were the leading opponents of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried back in ‘21 and ‘22 when he was trying to buy all of Washington and get his predatory model approved by the CFTC. In fact, we were so much of a thorn in their side that Sam called and came into the office for ninety minutes to try to convince me to support him. Unfortunately, there are so few people active at the CFTC, which is where he was trying to get his predatory model adopted.

Krugman: This is Sam Bankman-Fried who came in to talk to you. Okay.

Kelleher: Yeah, him and his bipartisan phalanx of advisors, because he bought everybody. For ninety minutes he tried to convince us. We didn’t know about his crimes obviously—but he clearly had an entire business model that was financially predatory. It was basically: “If we get rid of all these customer and investor protections, I can make a lot of money.” And I was like, “Well, anybody can make a lot of money.” You could make a lot of money building buildings if you don’t put in fire escapes or fire doors. It doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. That was essentially what Sam Bankman-Fried was trying to do in the derivatives markets, and we opposed him.

He also thought he could bribe us; he offered us a million dollars or more. Frankly, I could have asked for twenty-five million bucks and I’m sure he would have delivered it in a paper bag. We said no. To my knowledge—and I don’t say this arrogantly, but in sadness—I think we were the only ones in Washington who didn’t take his money. He ended up in the right place.

But Better Markets has been out front on this because there is no legitimate use case for crypto. They’ve had 18 years to come up with one. They keep throwing things up like “an inflation hedge” or “source of stability.” Every one of them has turned out to be baseless. The only real use for crypto is tax evasion, money laundering, and crime. It’s the preferred mechanism of choice for global terrorists, sex traffickers, and rogue nations like North Korea and Iran.

You have to ask yourself why crypto has basically hijacked the political agenda of Washington. It’s because they followed the Sam Bankman-Fried model of buying bipartisan support by spending hundreds of millions of dollars in campaigns. And this is the astonishing thing, Paul, that people don’t know.

Krugman: Okay.

Kelleher: It’s the biggest bait-and-switch in history. In the hundreds of millions of dollars they spend on campaigns, they don’t mention crypto. That’s because they know crypto is toxic. Poll after poll shows crypto is toxic with the American people. Politico and the Wall Street Journal independently looked at the massive amounts of ads bought by the crypto industry supporting candidates in the United States, and not one mentioned crypto. Then they get their friends elected who come to Washington and say, “Crypto voters sent us here,” except not one voter voted based on crypto. They were mostly negative attack ads on extraneous issues.

So crypto has now basically hijacked the agenda. The amount of attention politicians give it is crazy. The Senator from Maryland was recently quoted as saying, “I’m spending virtually all my time on crypto.” If his constituents knew that, they wouldn’t be happy. So here we have a financial product of no social use and massive negative uses that is being integrated with our core banking and financial system. Now, I’m sure it’s a coincidence, Paul, that the President is getting filthy rich on crypto.

The problem is that the downside of crypto is not going to fall only on the people getting rich on it. Once they connect it up to the banking and financial system, which they’re doing across the board, we are going to see problems. In many ways, I think what’s happening now is worse than what happened before the ‘08 crash. Before the ‘08 crash, we had subprime. Well, we not only have financial craziness going on, we have this entirely new multi-trillion dollar financial product that has no value, is incredibly volatile, and is rife with conflicts of interest. It is going to be a core part of our banking system within the next twelve to thirty-six months.

Krugman: Okay. This is a broader question of what happened to the political system. Massive campaign spending, but also a lot of effective bribery. You’ve been going after that. And it is kind of shockingly bipartisan. I mean, obviously, nobody has ever been “bribed.” The bribery of Donald Trump is, as he would say, “like nothing anybody’s ever seen before.” But it does extend across the political spectrum. You’ve been writing about that, right?

Kelleher: Well, unfortunately, it has. Any ordinary person looking at what’s happening would think it was bribery. Unfortunately, it’s not technically bribery because the Supreme Court has made that almost impossible to prove in a political context. So we have politicians taking massive amounts of money from the crypto industry and then prioritizing their special interests over the American people. Poll after poll—and we have this on our website—shows that very few people in America use or own crypto. These are not our polls; these are from Pew and other non-industry sources. Even the FDIC and the Federal Reserve’s own surveys show this.

If you look at the polls looking at what voters think, including one right before the 2024 election that looked at swing voters in six states, 68% of them had a negative view of crypto. That’s why crypto doesn’t mention crypto in its ads. But you have all this money coming into the political system, and now Democrats want that money too. Their view is: “Elections cost a lot of money. We need to neutralize this money cannon from crypto.”

Therefore, they deliver for them so the industry doesn’t fire that money cannon against them—or better yet, gives them some of it. They do that directly through campaigns, independent expenditures, and Super PACs. They also do it through the revolving door where the industry hires former public officials, including Congressmen and Senators. They purchase them like you go to a vending machine. They give them a ton of money, and next thing you know, they’re mouthpieces for the crypto industry. They also hire lobbyists who are family members of very important people.

There was a story that Senator Gillibrand’s twenty-two-year-old son has founded a company.

That company is being funded by billionaires and other financial types because apparently he has a brilliant idea and they randomly found him in a phone book, Paul. Everybody is pretending it has nothing to do with the fact that his mother is a powerful Senator from New York who is

the leading cheerleader for crypto special interests. She also happens to be the chair of the DSCC—the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee—which raises the money to elect Senate Democrats.

You can just read the media reports. You have to ask yourself: how are all these billionaires putting money into this startup? The spokesperson said these people are “longtime friends” of the son. When you’re twenty-two years old, how do “longtime friends” really work? Where do you run into billionaires? I know if you’re a Princeton professor they’re all over the place, but where I come from, running into a billionaire just isn’t common. Getting them to give you money for a startup at twenty-two might be the American Dream, but it ain’t working the way it’s supposed to.

Krugman: I’m not a Princeton professor anymore, and there are very few billionaires at the City University of New York. But okay, there’s so much here. Any quick thoughts about AI? It’s monopolizing attention, but where is the financial side of that?

Kelleher: I think in some ways it is monopolizing attention too much, and in other ways it’s not getting enough attention in the right places. We think that we’ve got a huge problem here. AI is inevitable; the real issue is what the safety features will be. Cars were a great innovation, but they killed a lot of people until we got airbags and protective glass. There is a fight now between people who think AI should proceed unregulated and those who think it should have regulation. We think you need a balance.

The American people are on to this. They know it’s going to impact them. For one, these gigantic data centers are sucking up electricity and driving up bills, straining the electrical grid to the point where the entire country could be subject to blackouts. But also, AI is going to have a very big impact on whether you get a loan or at what rate. It’s not just your energy bill; it’s your local bank. When everything becomes automated, how does a community bank keep up?

Community banks provide loans to the auto dealer or the local grocery store. They are going to come under enormous pressure because they can’t keep up with the infrastructure spending they’ll need. We have some ideas on how to strengthen them because they are so vital to our economy—providing 40% of small business lending. You lose community banks, you lose small business.

And then there’s the gigantic banks’ use of AI with infrastructure and spending. Community Banks are gonna need to make major investments if they’re gonna keep up. I mean, as I said earlier, forty percent of the lending to small business in the United States comes from community banks. You lose community banks, you lose small business, you lose community. So that’s just one way, but it’s all the way up the chain.

Another issue is that the people writing the algorithms are importing their own bias. Who’s guarding against that? There’s the “fat finger” problem where traders make mistakes, but who is testing AI machines pre-deployment? Representative Ro Khanna from California has made this point before, as have others. Truthfully, whether you like him or not, or you agree or don’t agree, you should listen to him because he’s got lots of thought provoking ideas on topical issues people really need to think about, and this is one of them.

It’s like thinking: “Let’s open a nuclear plant in our neighborhood.” Everybody would say you wouldn’t do that without checking a million things first. AI is the same, if not worse, because it’s less visible. Better Markets is putting out a “people-centered agenda” on how we should find the right balance so we can get the best of AI while avoiding the bad parts—many of which are unknown. We shouldn’t be putting AI on autopilot. And you know, just like we’re not letting cars on the road running on autopilot without thoroughly testing them and making sure they’re not going to kill everybody. We sure as heck shouldn’t be putting out AI on autopilot.

Krugman: Okay. This altogether makes me justifiably much more nervous.

Kelleher: Then, let me end on an up note. I thought your piece this morning on jury duty service was interesting. I’m optimistic because the vast majority of the American people are reasonable and community-minded. The problem we have is that there’s so much money flooding into the system, and that money represents the extremes. The extremes are buying the political system. We need to figure out how to get more Americans involved so the reasonable people can have civil conversations. I do think most Americans agree on striking a balance within a reasonable range. Our problem is a Supreme Court empowering billionaires, and we have a president that doesn’t care about laws, norms, customs, or rules.

What we’re trying to do at Better Markets—we just did this with our SEC campaign—is engage people. We engaged retail investors, and to our shock, two hundred thousand of them commented on an SEC rule. That is a historic high. So there are people out there, and we need to identify them and get them engaged. If we do, then I believe the core of the American Dream can be reflected in our political system.

Krugman:

I think that’s an upbeat note on which to end. Thanks so much.

Saturday assorted links

1. The tiny economist on my shoulder.

2. Beethoven in Indian classical raga.

3. Too many books? (NYT)

4. Roon on slop.

5. MIE.  Taylor Swift.

6. Rolling Stones fact of the day.

7. More balloons!

8. Seb Krier.

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Make no assumptions.

I’ve recently been thinking a lot about the concept of “soil horizons”, which is the idea that there are many distinct layers of soil, from topsoil all the way down to bedrock, which all combine into a soil horizon. Translating this idea into software, the ideal codebase would have a single uniform “code layer”, but a surprisingly large percentage of production software has numerous, distinct code layers as the leading architect shifted over time. I’ve found this particularly true for software in problem-spaces with high essential complexity and low scale complexity, where the purifying challenges of scaling never create enough pressure to compact disjoint layers into a unified layer.

Codebases with the most code layers tend to be created by small teams working on complex domains over a long period of time. In many companies this might be an identity, permissions or payments team: stuff that’s permanently valuable, but usually not the central concern at any given time. On such teams, there is often only one architect who understands the nuances of the domain well enough to make tradeoffs. When that architect leaves, they are replaced by someone who aspires to operate in the same code layer, but simply cannot because they lack enough context to do so. As a result, that new replacement creates a new code layer, despite not intending to. If the team runs through a handful of folks as the new team leads struggle, it’s easy to end up with a complex code horizon very quickly.

Software history framed as soil horizons.

The problem of messy code horizons is not a new one, and the general approach to addressing them is the same one I wrote about seven years ago in Reclaim unreasonable software, but with the proliferation of coding and non-coding harnesses, lately I’m running into the problem of messy code horizons more frequently. Even more concerning, I’m seeing this problem expand from impacting code horizons into impacting how organizations make decisions outside of software, e.g. the company’s general reasoning horizons. When individuals or teams rely on LLMs to reason to conclusions, rather than using LLMs to explore or draft options, it’s possible for even the most important decisions to be built on top of flawed reasoning layers underneath.

In the next section, I’ll develop the problem statement a bit about what I’m running into, and then in the final section I’ll lay out the approaches that I am finding (moderately) effective to navigate that problem.

Messy reasoning horizons

If you give three enthusiastic engineers a problem, a new codebase, a coding harness, and self-approval rights, it’s very easy to end up with three new soil horizons as their harnesses gleefully commit code. However, in engineering we have a number of techniques to derisk this problem. First, we have manual and automated code review, and second we increasingly have the ability for the harnesses to operate off sufficiently clear instructions that they write new code consistently with the existing code, even if the operator is unaware of what good looks like. This is also true for code review, where coding harnesses can drive consistency across pull requests even if the person (or harness) creating the pull requests is not operating off the same shared context as the wider team.

Many codebases are not well-configured for this new reality, and those codebases are getting worse at an accelerating rate as more harness and agent contributions get added. Legacy codebases that reach a certain size before introducing these better practices are easier to fix than before, but still require a lot of work to fix.

That said, I’m confident that coding harnesses are going to substantially improve the quality of code horizons over the next year or two as the way we configure harnesses improves. That’s not the problem I’m worried about. What I’m worried about is the application of harnesses to problems outside of writing software, where there’s no static typing, linting, or unit tests to validate the output.

Let me provide a very recent example from my own work that highlights this problem: I wanted to understand how our incidents were trending over time. So I pulled data via an MCP, and the analysis was unintuitive to me, in particular I thought we were having more Data related incidents than the results reflected. I had to look at the incidents in Slack, then the results in our incident tool, and understand why the two conflicted. After a bit, I recognized the results in our incident tool were only showing incidents that properly tagged a team when the alert was triggered, so it was omitting about half the relevant incidents. After having the agent manually tag the incidents without team assignments, the data made a lot more sense. After recognizing the issue, it was trivial to fix. However, if I had simply accepted the initial analysis, I would have made the perfectly wrong conclusion about what was happening. On top of that wrong conclusion, I could have easily pushed the team to take on a project to solve an illusionary problem.

What’s so pernicious about messy reasoning horizons, is once any reasoning layer is poisoned, it’s impossible to reason effectively on top of it. If you take the incident analysis example, it’s easy to imagine prioritizing the perfectly wrong set of remediations, which have the artifacts of solid strategic reasoning, but are nonetheless just wrong. It’s easy to imagine a team wasting a quarter of time building a solution to this sort of problem that never existed.

It’s true that poor reasoning has always existed, long before harnesses, but my experience is that poor reasoning wearing well-formatted clothing is proliferating more widely than I’ve previously seen, and it is increasingly difficult to combat because certain social norms are – at least temporarily – collapsing around folks actually thinking. That collapse is largely driven by unprincipled adoption of AI techniques without paying attention to whether they work. Widespread adoption is, in my opinion, the fundamental risk for most companies at the moment, and something companies need to be doing, but many approaches inadvertently mix play (experimenting with something new in ways that are likely to fail!) with production (creating load-bearing work product!) in ways that erode social norms for quality.

The norms are not uniformly collapsing by any means, they are generally intact, but even a small increase in the proliferation of low quality reasoning layers has a devastating effect on your ability to reason successfully. Especially true the further up the poor reasoning occurs (sloppy reasoning from senior leaders) or when senior leaders rely on layers of reasoning without inspection (leaders who aren’t sufficiently “in the details” to spot likely reasoning errors in reasoning layers).

As a result, we now live in a world where accepting any part of the reasoning context before inspecting it might lead to making a catastrophic mistake. This is an exhausting way to live.

Make no assumptions

Accepting that this is the world we live in, I wanted to lay out the techniques that I am finding useful to deal with it. Some of these are novel, but many of them are the same techniques I was using before the LLM-advent:

  1. Make no assumptions. When new hires join my team or my company, the first thing I tell them is that it’s essential that they “make no assumptions.” This is difficult to do, and it goes against every instinct because it forces you to inspect each aspect of how the company works and thinks, but I do think it’s the necessary approach. It’s a bit like learning “internet-skepticism” at some point in your life, where you realize that everything on the internet is self-motivated in some way, and you have to maintain a strict filter on what ideas you accept.

    This is a hard change to make, but I genuinely believe this is the correct mindset for accepting new information in the current era. The combination of fewer management layers and more flawed reasoning layers means that the core job of leadership is inspecting the details.

  2. The author must be the first human in the loop for their output. The biggest cultural failure with harnesses is when you can tell that you–the recipient of a piece of work–are the first human in the loop reviewing it. You must set a cultural norm that the creator of a piece of content is always the first human in the loop before asking another human to review it. If you fail to set that cultural expectation, then you will quickly crush the remaining team with a high standard for quality reasoning, which will lead to a full destruction of your reasoning horizon.

  3. Prioritize reasonable software. Run the Reclaim unreasonable software playbook, recognizing that migrations are cheap in 2026, so it’s much faster to remediate gaps. The core idea here is that relying on convention doesn’t work, and instead you have to rely on deterministic decisioning for each approach. For humans this can feel overly prescriptive, but harnesses don’t care.

  4. Learn faster by separating play and production. Many folks trying to learn how to use harnesses and LLMs leap directly into using them in their most critical work. This is a slow way to learn, and can lead to substantial errors in your most critical work. It’s much faster to work by buffering small pockets of time to learn.

    For example, our head of data has spent time building an iOS app fully “hands off the keyboard” to get a better feel for the tools. This sort of experiment goes much faster and gives you more repetitions in less time. The very practical version of this is setting aside a day or two periodically for folks to experiment.

  5. Structure how you think with LLMs. In Crafting Engineering Strategy, I lay out a structured approach to reasoning through creating a strategy document, which aims to prevent the reasoning errors that folks make in their thinking. This applies equally in how we use LLMs, and I think you can substantially reduce the chance of introducing flawed reasoning layers by focusing LLM work on exploration (gathering information on internet and via various MCPs), refinement (presenting gathered information effectively), and a final formatting pass. That takes much of the work out of strategy creation while constraining the areas you have to avoid making any assumptions about its output.

I’m certain there are more things! What are you trying?

The Economics of Repugnant Transactions, with Felix Salmon on Slate

  Felix Salmon talked to me about Moral Economics:

Money Talks: The Economics of Repugnant Transactions, with Felix Salmon on Slate.

"Nobel Prize winner Alvin Roth explains what we learn when markets are shaped by big ethical questions." 

Transcript here 

Here's one snippet: 

"Speaker A: You have a pretty long chapter on same sex marriage in the book where you go through the sort of legislative history both in various states and the country. And after, like reading so much of the history of this, I would say, like, this is so Slate, I’m going to just come out and say that 95% plus of our listeners are perfectly fine with same sex marriage. It seems perfectly normal to us. It’s kind of hard for us to imagine why it was that we ever had a problem with it in the first place. But you went back, you Were looking at a bunch of contemporaneous literature. Do you have a sympathy for the anti side of the debate? Do you see where they were coming from?

Speaker B: Well, I think I see where they were coming from. I can do that without having necessarily a lot of sympathy for them. But they were tooled up quite early on. So for a long time in the United States, there were laws against sex that sometimes had the names unnatural acts in them. And in California, and I’m going to fudge the dates now, but sometime in the 1970s, long before there was any same sex marriage, they decided that laws against same sex sex violated the equal rights provisions of the California constitution. And so they changed them. They made those laws unconstitutional. And almost immediately after, like two years after, in the 1970s, the California legislature passed a law against same sex marriage. That is, the people who were looking into the far future and thinking that they really hated same sex marriage had felt protected by the laws against consensual sex between adults of, you know, say, sodomy. And all of a sudden they felt unprotected. So long before any same sex marriage became legal in the United States, there started to be laws against it.

Speaker A: That’s kind of wild. You’re just, you’re sort of like cutting it off at the past. It’s not legal anywhere. No one’s even trying to make it legal. We’re going to make it illegal just in case. And we saw that at the federal level as well.

Speaker B: Absolutely. When the state of Massachusetts finally, when its courts finally legalized same sex marriage in Massachusetts, the federal government passed a law called the defense of marriage act, which was intended to defend marriage against same sex marriage. So that’s a really unusual state of affairs. And again, when I say that’s a repugnant transaction, One of the things I emphasize in the book is I don’t mean that I disapprove of it or that you should, but that some people do. And the long political fight makes it clear that the people who objected to it objected very strongly. 

Speaker A: I mean, I was around for a lot of these court cases and legislative moves, but even at the time, I didn’t entirely understand where the opponents were coming from. So is it mostly like a biblical thing?

Speaker B: So I think it’s partly a religious thing and some of that is biblical. There were some passages in Hebrew Bible even that could be interpreted as disapproving of same sex relations. And when you look back at the long history of humanity, there were lots of taboos about sex. And I think one way to think of them is, for most of human history, sex between a man and a woman often resulted in pregnancy, and pregnancy often resulted in a live birth in a baby. And society has and had some interest in making sure that babies were taken care of. And one way to do that is to say babies should be born into families, and therefore before people have sex, they should be married to each other. And so there are a whole set of taboos that might be thought of as society’s way of trying to take care of babies. But of course, technology changes. And contraception, reliable contraception, means that it’s possible to have sex without too much risk of a baby. In vitro fertilization, IVF means that it’s possible to have babies without sex. So all of a sudden, some of those barriers that may have seem essential to the orderly running of society didn’t seem so essential. And I think that opened up room for us to think more about who could have sex with whom and who could form a family with whom. 

Winston Marshall podcasts with me on AI

He is from the star musical group Mumford & Sons, but is also an excellent podcaster.  Here is the episode, recorded before the Fable ban was lifted:

Of course I do sneak in some music analogies, including a mention of Dock Boggs.

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Progress against dementia

Mr Stallard has been working for a decade to corroborate this revelation. His findings have, if anything, become even more striking. Last year he and some colleagues published research in the Journal of the American Medical Association showing that, whereas 40 years ago three in every ten Americans aged 85-89 had dementia, by 2024 just one in ten had it (see chart 1). What is more, America is not the only beneficiary of this trend. Between 1988 and 2015 the share of older people being diagnosed with dementia fell by 13% a decade across six countries in North America and Europe, according to a study of almost 50,000 people by Frank Wolters of the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, and colleagues.

Some smaller studies have also found big declines. Data from the Framingham Heart Study, which has tracked three generations in an American town, show an average drop in new dementia cases of 20% per decade over almost 40 years between the late 1970s and early 2010s. Those who were entering their dotage when Daft Punk’s “Get Lucky” was topping the charts (2013) were 44% less likely to have dementia than those who were doing so when Sting was urging Roxanne to switch off her red light (1978).

Whereas most earlier studies had simply pooled elderly people and then applied a statistical adjustment for age, Mr Stallard looked at narrow bands of ages to compare different cohorts of people over 50 years. By examining the changes between each successive cohort, he calculates that dementia rates have been declining by 2.5-3% for each calendar-year cohort.

Here is more from Jonathan Rosenthal at The Economist.  You can think of this as the new instantiation of the Flynn Effect…

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Squircle Jail Isn’t (Or at Least Shouldn’t Be) About Upcoming Touchscreen Macs

Another bit of follow-up on squircle jail on MacOS. The most-asked question in my inbox from readers is this: Is mandating the squircle a concession to the much-rumored upcoming touchscreen MacBooks?

No.

The visible shape and appearance of an app icon is unrelated to its clickable — or, perhaps soon, tappable — area. Rendering a visible squircle doesn’t change the shape of the clickable/tappable target area around an icon. In the bygone days when MacOS permitted delicious app icons — and Apple crafted delicious icons for its own apps — you could click in the middle of, say, the QuickTime Player icon and it just worked. It would have been pretty nutty if it didn’t.

Screenshot of the old QuickTime Player’s “Q” icon, with a transparent hole.

 ★ 

Record Heat for the Intermountain West and Northern Plains; Heavy Rainfall and Severe Weather Threats

WorkOS Pipes

My thanks, once again, to WorkOS for sponsoring DF last week. Users expect apps and agents to reach the tools they already work in. Every integration that gets you there is a different OAuth flow, a different token lifecycle, and weeks of infrastructure before you write a line of product code.

WorkOS Pipes handles it with one API call. Pre-built connectors for GitHub, Slack, Salesforce, Google Drive, and more. Pipes handles OAuth, token refresh, and credential storage. You call the real provider API with a fresh token, every time.

Connect to 100+ providers with WorkOS Pipes.

 ★ 


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