I hate being this guy.
I really do.
I like being optimistic, I like helping Democrats, I like the idea of good people rising and saving America.
I do, I do, I do, I do …
That said, approaching an insanely important slate of votes, we also have to be politically honest about shit. And as we sit here, three months before state primaries, there is a reality to the CA-40 election. One you won’t like. One you’ll, perhaps, criticize me for stating. One that doesn’t bode well. One that multiple local political experts agree upon.
In short—a Democrat will not be on the final ballot.
As we speak, two popular Republicans—the 40th incumbent, Young Kim, and the 41st-moved-to-40th incumbent, Ken Calvert—have more money, more name recognition and more support than Esther Kim Varet, Lisa Ramirez and Joe Kerr, the three Democrats slugging it out. Thanks to the aftermath of Prop 50, they also happen to be competing in a district that now leans Republican by about a nine-point margin (it’s 40 percent GOP, 31 percent Dem and 27 percent independent).
So …
While Esther Kim Varet has (by far) the most money on hand of the three Dems …
… she is waaaaaaay behind Young Kim and waaaaaaay behind Ken Calvert. And maybe you’re thinking, “Well, that’s OK—because Young Kim and Ken Calvert will cancel each other out in the primary, thereby leading to Esther’s rise toward the general!”
Alas, no.
Because politics suck and politicians suck and no one is ever willing to take one for the team, Esther, Lisa and Joe will all have their names listed on the primary ballot (along with the two Republicans and a bunch of lessers). So let’s say Kerr gets (at the minimum) four percent of the vote. And let’s say either Varet or Ramirez snag, oh, eight-to-10 percent. Well, that makes it a near statistical impossibility for the leading Democrat to surpass the inevitable totals of Young Kim and Ken Calvert, who (I repeat) are both quite (politically) famous, savvy veterans of the game and extremely well-funded—in a firm Republican district. Even if, oh, Kerr and Ramirez decide tomorrow to drop out, it’s too late. Their names will be listed, and folks will vote for them. It’s a certainty.
Again, I friggin’ hate being the messenger of death. But had the three Democrats been legitimately serious about winning this for (above all else) the good of democracy, they would have secretly met at the Orange Inn for breakfast burritos and coffee, played rock, paper, scissors and come up with a singular candidate to at least offer a puncher’s chance.
Then they would have held a joint press conference, pretend smiling and holding hands and saying, “WE’RE DOING THIS FOR DEMOCRACY!” as some meh Bieber song blares in the background.
And (cough) even then it would have been a major longshot.
•••
Who do I blame?
No one. And everyone.
I blame Esther for going scorched earth on her fellow Democrats—beginning with young, earnest Perry Meade, then turning her wrath toward Lisa (thereby branding herself an asshole to a huge number of Democrats). I blame her for presenting herself as an entitled art dealer (which, cough, she sorta is) who blessed us with her Christ-like visage. I blame her for funneling through 654,221 campaign managers and spending way too much of her dough on gimmicks. I blame her for weird-ass stuff like this.
I blame Lisa for mid-level fundraising efforts (you cannot win a campaign like this with this level of dough. It’s impossible); for a late entrance into the race; for offering enough mixed messages on her pro-choice bonafides that I keep getting asked, “So … is she against abortion or what?” I also blame her for poor social media output and low visibility. It takes work to be a candidate for fairly high-profile office and have 601 Instagram followers.
I blame Joe for having no realistic shot, but running nonetheless. I blame him for being the evergreen candidate who has enough name recognition to siphon votes from other Democrats, but lacking the mojo and zest to possibly win. Joe is Jerry Quarry fighting Ron Cranmer in 1992. And since that reference will go over the heads of 98 percent of my readers, here’s a study guide.
Hell, here’s Joe Kerr’s financial status (literally, this website has generated more money than Kerr—and I’m not running for shit) …
I blame ego. I blame dough. I blame Prop 50 (which, obviously, I supported). I blame a broken system. I blame the DCCC. I blame In-N-Out’s disgusting milkshakes. I blame Hall and Oates for splitting up. I blame laundry lint.
Mostly, I blame Gary Coleman for his 2003 recall run.
Just because I need to redirect my frustration. And Arnold Jackson was adorable.
•••
And here’s the worst part.
As we speak, Young Kim and Ken Calvert are two lions, desperately trying to rip one another’s eyes out. They are spending tons of dough to gain the conservative edge; to go full MAGA; to establish themselves as the kings of right-wing Southern California. They are thrashing each other, battering each other, killing each other. They are affixing themselves to an increasingly unpopular president who is drowning in the polls and who (if we’re being honest) likely had sexual relations with girls.
That means, had the Democrats thought this through and planned appropriately, there could have been an opening. In particular, I believe (in an ideal world) Ramirez had the best shot. She’s an anti-ICE immigration attorney in a district that’s about 25 percent Latino. She has a story to tell; a saga to share; a got-her-hands-dirty-in-the-fight rep that could have possibly played well. I believe she’s a genuinely good person and a brawler.
But.
She.
Barely.
Has.
Any.
Money.
And as much as it sucks, you’re not capturing this seat on $300,000. Not when your opponents can outspend you 10-to-1. It’s beyond unlikely. It’s impossible.
So, yeah. Maybe, at one point, it paid to dream the dream and hope the hope and think, deep down, a Democrat could win the 40th.
But sitting here—glum but realistic—I don’t believe it’s attainable.
I just don’t.
Up and to my office all the morning, and great pleasure it is to be doing my business betimes. About noon Sir J. Minnes came to me and staid half an hour with me in my office talking about his business with Sir W. Pen, and (though with me an old doter) yet he told me freely how sensible he is of Sir W. Pen’s treachery in this business, and what poor ways he has taken all along to ingratiate himself by making Mr. Turner write out things for him and then he gives them to the Duke, and how he directed him to give Mr. Coventry 100l. for his place, but that Mr. Coventry did give him 20l. back again. All this I am pleased to hear that his knavery is found out. Dined upon a poor Lenten dinner at home, my wife being vexed at a fray this morning with my Lady Batten about my boy’s going thither to turn the watercock with their maydes’ leave, but my Lady was mighty high upon it and she would teach his mistress better manners, which my wife answered aloud that she might hear, that she could learn little manners of her. After dinner to my office, and there we sat all the afternoon till 8 at night, and so wrote my letters by the post and so before 9 home, which is rare with me of late, I staying longer, but with multitude of business my head akes, and so I can stay no longer, but home to supper and to bed.
It has become clear that Trump had no plan in Iran other than to strike it, knock out the leaders he didn’t like, and hope the Iranian people would rise up and put in place new leaders he could deal with. It was supposed to look like what happened in Venezuela in January, when U.S. forces launched a surprise military strike that enabled them to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, leaving in his place the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who promises to work with Trump and has given him access to the country’s oil resources.
Andrew Egger of The Bulwark explains that the Trump administration didn’t bother to have a theory for why the U.S. was going to war with Iran, or to explain to the American people why such a war would be a good thing, because they didn’t think there was going to be a war, just a fast, hard strike that would enable the U.S. to put a new Iranian leader in place.
But the initial Israeli strikes killed most of the people the administration hoped would replace 86-year-old hardline ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, and yesterday Iran proclaimed as his successor Khamenei’s 56-year-old son Mojtaba Khamenei despite Trump’s statement that “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.” Mojtaba Khamenei is thought to be even more extreme a hardliner than his father.
Wall Street Journal national security reporter Alex Ward reported today that according to current and former U.S. officials, “President Trump has told aides he would back the killing of new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei if he proves unwilling to cede to U.S. demands, such as ending Iran’s nuclear development.”
This morning, Joe Wallace, Summer Said, Rebecca Feng, and Georgi Kantchev of the Wall Street Journal wrote an article titled “The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us,” warning that the stoppage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has set off “the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s and [is] threatening the global economy.” Ships move not only oil but also fertilizer used for crops around the globe through that strait.
On March 3, Trump offered government insurance for shipping and floated the possibility of Navy escorts for ships in the strait, but that has not been enough to restore voyages. So this morning, on the Fox News Channel, Brian Kilmeade, who cheered on Trump’s attack on Iran from the television studio, told the captains of oil tankers they must simply conquer their fear and start up. “If you want to diminish the Iranian threat, if you want to make sure this ends up with complete Iran capitulation,” he said, “show some guts and go through that Strait, and do it.”
The spreading war in the Middle East threatens the ties between the region and the U.S. that Trump has pushed since taking office. As Eliot Brown, Georgi Kantchev, and Lauren Thomas of the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, the richest countries in the Persian Gulf last year tried to strengthen ties with Trump by pledging billions of dollars of investment into the U.S. Now they are having second thoughts. A prominent Dubai businessman posted at Trump on social media: “Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war?” Trump had placed the Gulf states “at the heart of a danger they did not choose,” he wrote.
On Saturday, Vivienne Walt of the New York Times warned that such investments have gone both ways, with U.S. tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Oracle investing in large-scale facilities across the Middle East with an eye to making the region a global center for AI. Now they are questioning the security of such investments.
Aaron Katersky and Josh Margolin of ABC News reported today that shortly after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the U.S. intercepted encrypted messages suggesting that Iran has activated covert operatives, or “sleeper assets,” in other countries. When Eric Cortellessa of Time magazine asked Trump if Americans should worry about attacks at home, Trump answered: “I guess. But I think they’re worried about that all the time. We think about it all the time. We plan for it. But yeah, you know, we expect some things. Like I said, some people will die. When you go to war, some people will die.”
Under increasing pressure over the Epstein files, the Department of Justice (DOJ) today released some of the missing documents concerning an allegation from an Epstein survivor that Trump raped her when she was thirteen or fourteen. The so-called 302 report released today concerns four separate FBI interviews with the woman. (FD-302 is the form used by the Federal Bureau of Investigation to provide an official record of summarized interviews.) The DOJ’s initial document drop included only the interview in which she talked about her abuse at Epstein’s hands; the other interviews discuss Trump. Some of the files related to that accusation and those interviews are still missing.
The White House has responded to the pressure on Trump by posting an image of what appears to be a pilot in an aircraft under the caption “PATRIOTS ARE IN CONTROL.” The Steady State, a group made up of former national security officials, explains that in Q-Anon circles, that phrase “refers to the long-standing belief that Trump and a hidden network inside government were secretly running things the entire time.”
Trump has become so desperate to force Republicans in Congress to limit voting before the 2026 midterms that yesterday morning he took to social media to threaten them. He said that unless the Senate weakens the filibuster to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act over the objections of Democrats, “I, as President, will not sign other Bills until this is passed, AND NOT THE WATERED DOWN VERSION—GO FOR THE GOLD: MUST SHOW VOTER I.D. & PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP: NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS EXCEPT FOR MILITARY—ILLNESS, DISABILITY, TRAVEL: NO MEN IN WOMEN’S SPORTS: NO TRANSGENDER MUTILATION FOR CHILDREN! DO NOT FAIL!!!”
Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) responded: “The SAVE Act is Jim Crow 2.0. It would disenfranchise tens of millions of people. If Trump is saying he won’t sign any bills until the SAVE Act is passed, then so be it: there will be total gridlock in the Senate. Senate Democrats will not help pass the SAVE Act under any circumstances.”
Senate majority leader John Thune (R-SC) does not have the votes even to make up a majority in favor of the act, let alone the 60 he would need to overcome a filibuster, and has said he will not change the filibuster to try to pass the measure.
Brian Finucane noted today in Just Security that Congress, especially the Senate, could cause other problems for Trump. Although it has so far declined to reclaim its power to rein in his military adventures, it could still do so through the power of the purse. The administration appears to be planning to ask for more money to fund the war in Iran. Congress could refuse that money or could place restrictions on it by passing laws establishing such restrictions, although Trump could veto such measures and it would take a supermajority in each chamber of Congress to override his veto.
In the midst of Trump’s tanking numbers on all the issues that used to be Republicans’ strength—the economy, immigration, national security—Trump spoke today to Republican members of the House at their annual policy retreat at Trump’s property in Doral, Florida.
The Republican majority is now so thin that Johnson can afford to lose just a single vote on the House floor, and as of this morning, that seat seemed to be in jeopardy with Representative Tony Gonzales (R-TX) facing calls to resign after admitting to an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide.
This afternoon, Representative Kevin Kiley of California announced he was leaving the Republican Party to become an Independent. When California redistricted the state to counter Texas’s redistricting, Kiley’s district became much more competitive. Kiley says that going forward, he will “have to consider” every bill “on its own merits.”
This afternoon, Weijia Jiang of CBS reported: “NEW—In a phone interview, President Trump told me the war could be over soon: ‘I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.’ He added that the U.S. is ‘very far’ ahead of his initial 4–5 week estimated time frame. Asked about Iran’s new Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who Trump has openly criticized, he said, ‘I have no message for him. None, whatsoever.’ Trump said he has someone in mind to replace Khamenei, but he did not elaborate. As for the Strait of Hormuz, Trump noted that ships are moving through now, but he is ‘thinking about taking it over.’ Trump warned Iran, ‘They’ve shot everything they have to shoot, and they better not try anything cute or it’s going to be the end of that country.’”
The price of oil had spiked overnight up to its highest level since global trade surged in 2022 after the Covid-19 lockdowns, peaking briefly at over $100 a barrel. News that the Group of Seven advanced economies (G7) is willing to consider releasing strategic oil reserves if necessary brought it down from its highs. A dropping stock market reflected the spike in oil prices. Those drops moderated after news about the possible release of strategic oil reserves, and the news that Trump considers the war ending meant the market ended up higher by the end of the day than it had begun.
But once the market had closed, Trump changed his tune, telling House Republicans, “We have won in many ways, but not enough. We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.” When asked at a later news conference if the war would be over this week, Mr. Trump said, “No.”
This evening, Trump’s account posted: “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far. Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again—Death, Fire, and Fury will reign [sic] upon them—But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen! This is a gift from the United States of America to China, and all of those Nations that heavily use the Hormuz Strait. Hopefully, it is a gesture that will be greatly appreciated.”
Aaron Rupar of Public Notice commented: “Trump is completely flailing. He didn’t anticipate the economic blowback and now he’s trying to undo the past 10 days and contain the damage.”
As part of its apparent war on what the administration calls “narco-terrorists” in Latin America, U.S. Southern Command announced yesterday that it has struck another small vessel in the eastern Pacific, killing another six men.
—
Notes:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-03-09-2026
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/persian-gulf-oil-squeeze-d9a39190
https://abcnews.com/US/iran-activating-sleeper-cells-alert/story?id=130897687
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2026/03/08/trump-save-act-must-be-passed/5271773001362/
https://www.justsecurity.org/133361/iran-war-powers-purse-leverage-legalization/
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/09/house-gop-retreat-trump-midterms-00817213
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5775383-kevin-kiley-independent-gop/
https://time.com/7382697/trump-iran-war/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/business/dealbook/iran-gulf-tech-investments.html
https://www.newsweek.com/doj-releases-new-epstein-documents-trump-accuser-read-full-11631360
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2165399-full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal/
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/09/world/iran-war-israel-trump-oil
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/03/iran-oil-energy-military-trump-hormuz-00808825
Facebook:
X:
Southcom/status/2030800534052196608
weijia/status/2031086856679412042
GregTSargent/status/2031052493187109159
Bluesky:
justinwolfers.bsky.social/post/3mglnvh4hjn2n
thesteadystate.org/post/3mgmqfmjw2s2w
atrupar.com/post/3mgn4qgmgfd2r
schumer.senate.gov/post/3mgkvqi2abk2u
atrupar.com/post/3mgo4rcgb6s2s

NASA is working to reduce the risks of upcoming Artemis moon missions, but there are “gaps” in the agency’s approach, including in planned tests of some critical lander systems, the agency’s Office of Inspector General said in a report released Tuesday.
The OIG also noted that, like the Apollo landing missions more than 50 years ago, if Artemis astronauts “encounter a life-threatening emergency in space or on the lunar surface, NASA does not have the capability to rescue the stranded crew.”
The OIG said that while NASA is working to “mitigate and prevent hazards” associated with lunar landers being built by SpaceX and Blue Origin, “there are currently gaps in the agency’s approach, including in its testing posture and crew survival analyses,” including what might happen after a catastrophic but non-fatal event.
NASA is currently working to ready a Space Launch System rocket and Orion crew capsule — Integrity — for launch by around April 1 on the Artemis II mission. The nine-day flight will carry four astronauts around the moon and back.
The mission originally was planned for early February, but it has been delayed by hydrogen propellant leaks and, more recently, by problems with its upper stage propellant pressurization system that forced NASA to haul the rocket back to its processing hangar for repairs.
That issue has been resolved, and NASA plans to hold a flight readiness review Wednesday and Thursday. If all goes well, the SLS rocket will be hauled back out to pad 39B at the Kennedy Space Center around March 19 or 20 for final launch preparations.
In the meantime, NASA announced a major overhaul of the Artemis program on Feb. 27. The agency now plans to launch an additional mission next year — Artemis III — sending an Orion capsule into Earth orbit to carry out rendezvous and checkout operations with one or both of the moon landers now under development.
Based in part on lessons learned, the agency hopes to launch two lunar-landing missions in 2028 using one or both landers if both are deemed ready to fly. Those missions will be preceded by unpiloted lunar landing test flights.
The OIG report released Tuesday was completed before the revised mission architecture was announced by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman. As such, it mostly concentrated on SpaceX’s lander, which was to make the first two Artemis moon landings with Blue Origin following after. As it now stands, NASA plans to use whichever lander is ready when it’s needed.
SpaceX’s lander is a variant of the company’s Starship, which normally serves as the second stage of its gargantuan Super Heavy-Starship rocket. To reach the moon, the 171-foot-tall HLS must be refueled in low-Earth orbit by an estimated 10-to-20 Starship tanker flights.
The OIG said the company plans to launch a propellant depot ship well ahead of a moon landing mission. The depot will be filled with propellants by a steady stream of Super Heavy-tanker flights taking off every week or so from launch pads in Florida and Texas.
Orbital refueling at that scale has never been attempted. Complicating the picture, it’s not yet publicly known how SpaceX will mitigate the constant loss of cryogenic propellants as they warm up and evaporate.
In any case, when the depot has been topped off, the lander will be launched, autonomously reloaded with propellants and then fired off to the moon where it will enter orbit and await the arrival of Artemis astronauts aboard an Orion crew ship.
Blue Origin plans to follow a somewhat similar strategy, refueling its lander in Earth orbit to provide the propellant needed to reach the moon. Once in lunar orbit, a tanker will top off its tanks again before carrying astronauts down to the lunar surface.
The OIG noted that the established loss-of-crew threshold faced by Artemis astronauts in the first two moon landings was expected to be in 1-in-40 range for lunar operations and 1-in-30 overall, from launch to splashdown. For comparison, Apollo astronauts faced 1-in-10 odds of a crew loss while space shuttle crews flew with an actual 1-in-70 risk.
Before any moonwalkers are launched, both landers will be put through an exhaustive series of tests in lunar orbit to verify their operational readiness. After docking with a given lander, astronauts will descend to the surface while the Orion remains in orbit awaiting their return.
Landing near the moon’s south pole poses more severe challenges than Apollo crews faced when landing near the lunar equator.
“Steep slopes of up to 20 degrees on the lunar South Pole present navigation and landing challenges,” the OIG said. “Given Starship’s height of 171 feet — about the equivalent of a 14-story tall commercial building — there is a risk that its momentum will continue after landing causing it to tip over.”
NASA’s requirement for “tilt tolerance” is a slope of just 8 degrees.
“Blue Moon — standing at 53 feet tall — also faces landing risks, including exceeding the lander’s tilt tolerance for safe and effective execution of critical crew functions. Surpassing the tilt tolerance for either lander … could impact the operation of equipment such as the hatch used by the crew to exit and enter the vehicle.”
For comparison, the Apollo lunar modules, which carried 12 astronauts to the moon’s surface in six flights, were half the height of Blue Moon’s and seven times shorter than SpaceX’s.
Unlike astronauts aboard Blue Origin’s lander, who can use stairs to reach the surface six feet below, crews aboard SpaceX’s lander will have to ride an external elevator some 10 stories down the side of their rocket. While that might seem a minor engineering issue given the challenges of orbital refueling and propellant boil off, program managers view it as an issue worth close attention.
“Starship’s elevator sits just below the crew compartment and is approximately 115 feet above the ground,” the inspector general wrote. “Currently, there is no other method for the crew to enter the vehicle from the lunar surface in the event of an elevator failure.”
NASA requires “at least single failure tolerance to catastrophic events, meaning the ability of a system to sustain a single failure and not have it affect the design goal. SpaceX is focused on building a robust standard elevator design with redundant mechanisms.”
“However, the HLS Program is tracking the elevator as a top risk and is actively working with SpaceX to develop alternate means of vehicle ingress should the elevator become stuck or fail while the crew is on the lunar surface.”
Hello! My big takeaway from last month’s musings about man pages was that examples in man pages are really great, so I worked on adding (or improving) examples to two of my favourite tools’ man pages.
Here they are:
The goal here was really just to give the absolute most basic examples of how to use the tool, for people who use tcpdump or dig infrequently (or have never used it before!) and don’t remember how it works.
So far saying “hey, I want to write an examples section for beginners and infrequent users of this tools” has been working really well. It’s easy to explain, I think it makes sense from everything I’ve heard from users about what they want from a man page, and maintainers seem to find it compelling.
Thanks to Denis Ovsienko, Guy Harris, Ondřej Surý, and everyone else who reviewed the docs changes, it was a good experience and left me motivated to do a little more work on man pages.
I’m interested in working on tools’ official documentation right now because:
tcpdump -w out.pcap, it’s useful to pass -v to print
a live summary of how many packets have been captured so far. That’s really
useful, I didn’t know it, and I don’t think I ever would have noticed it on
my own.It’s kind of a weird place for me to be because honestly I always kind of assume documentation is going to be hard to read, and I usually just skip it and read a blog post or Stack Overflow comment or ask a friend instead. But right now I’m feeling optimistic, like maybe the documentation doesn’t have to be bad? Maybe it could be just as good as reading a really great blog post, but with the benefit of also being actually correct? I’ve been using the Django documentation recently, and it’s really good! We’ll see.
The tcpdump project tool’s man page is
written in the roff language,
which is kind of hard to use and that I really did not feel like learning it.
I handled this by writing a very basic markdown-to-roff script to convert Markdown to roff, using similar conventions to what the man page was already using. I could maybe have just used pandoc, but the output pandoc produced seemed pretty different, so I thought it might be better to write my own script instead. Who knows.
I did think it was cool to be able to just use an existing Markdown library’s ability to parse the Markdown AST and then implement my own code-emitting methods to format things in a way that seemed to make sense in this context.
I went on a whole rabbit hole learning about the history of roff, how it’s
evolved since the 70s, and who’s working on it today, inspired by learning about
the mandoc project that BSD systems (and some Linux
systems, and I think Mac OS) use for formatting man pages. I won’t say more
about that today though, maybe another time.
In general it seems like there’s a technical and cultural divide in how documentation works on BSD and on Linux that I still haven’t really understood, but I have been feeling curious about what’s going on in the BSD world.
Links for you. Science:
New approach roughly predicts when Alzheimer’s symptoms begin
The GLP-1 dream is over. What now, for patients who’ve relied on it for weight loss?
Chromosome Testing Will Take Sports Back To The Dark Ages
Galápagos park releases 158 juvenile hybrid tortoises on Floreana to restore the ecosystem
Scrappy San Diego startup goes toe-to-toe with gene-sequencing giant Illumina. Element Biosciences unveiled a device that can read DNA for half the price of Illumina’s technology.
At the World’s Largest General Science Meeting, Surviving Trump Is the Topic
Other:
There’s Only One Way to Eradicate Trumpism for Good. If accountability isn’t a central pillar of a post-Trump future, we will doom ourselves.
We Have Learned Nothing About Amplifying Morons
We Won? The Supreme Court Checked Trump? That’s what happened, right?
How far back in time can you understand English? An experiment in language change (very cool)
Where Is Cinema?: An Interview With A.S. Hamrah
Pinterest Is Drowning in a Sea of AI Slop and Auto-Moderation
The day Jesse Jackson faced off with the Klan in Connecticut
‘Don’t go to the US – not with Trump in charge’: the UK tourist with a valid visa detained by ICE for six weeks
King Charles exposes Pam Bondi’s shame
Hundreds of students suspended, schools under close watch over anti-ICE walkouts
Teamsters supported Trump—now it’s backfiring spectacularly
Kristi Noem’s law-and-order pitch is collapsing
Man Opposing Data Center Arrested for Speaking Slightly Too Long (I think this is more due incompetence than authoritarianism)
Trump’s “Mission Accomplished” moment gives Democrats an opening. The president falsely claimed he “fixed” the affordability crisis. He and the GOP will pay in the November midterms
The Minneapolis Resistance Will Do Your Laundry
Ars Technica Pulls Article With AI Fabricated Quotes About AI Generated Article
Pam Bondi is leaving her Democratic successor a mess
The Dario Scenario: Anthropic was among the top A.I. players to sign fat contracts with the Pentagon. Now, simmering tensions over how the military uses its technology have exploded into the open, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatening to blacklist them. Can C.E.O. Dario Amodei find an off-ramp?
Underground Facial Recognition Tool Unmasks Camgirls
11 Million Visitors Short: Inside America’s Continuing Tourism Slump
OpenAI’s Hardware Device Just Leaked, and You Will Cringe
The shutdown helps Democrats by changing what “immigration” means to voters
ICE is Shutting Pregnant Girls in a Facility With Inadequate Care, in an Abortion-Banned State
Hackers Expose Age-Verification Software Powering Surveillance Web
Instead of Greenland, Governor Landry Might Want to Send the Hospital Boat to Louisiana
Afrikaner refugees struggling in the United States
Social Security Workers Are Being Told to Hand Over Appointment Details to ICE. The recent request goes against decades of precedent and puts noncitizens at further risk of immigration enforcement actions. (this disproportionately targets the disabled, especially the deaf)
John Fetterman Hits New Low in Quest for Donald Trump’s Approval
The hidden ICE blueprint that should horrify every American
Better Late Than Never: On Friendship, Authoritarianism, And Finally Drawing A Line
D.C. statehood is often portrayed as critical because Democrats almost certainly would gain two seats, and it makes sense that is how most people who live outside of D.C. would view the issue. But for D.C. residents, the most noticeable effect is how Congress can influence how we govern ourselves at the state/local level. Some Republican congressmen want to eliminate D.C.’s speeding cameras, which have been very successful (boldface mine):
Nobody enjoys opening that ominous white envelope from the Department of Motor Vehicles, with its creepy photos of your speeding car and the sting of a three-figure fine. But the strategy seems to be effective: A major drop in traffic deaths last year reversed a decade-long climb, and Mayor Muriel Bowser has called automated traffic-enforcement cameras a “critical tool” for roadway safety whose removal would endanger people.
Though it’s hard to prove direct cause and effect, the data does suggest that traffic-calming efforts—including speed cameras—are making a difference. In 2025, 25 people died in traffic accidents in DC, down from 52 in 2024. That’s the lowest level since 2012, and it comes on the heels of a burst of new camera installations. In 2020, there were just over 100 in DC. By 2024, the number had risen to 477, and it’s now at 546, including 212 speed cameras, several dozen red-light and stop-sign devices, and a handful of truck-restriction cameras. More than 200 Metrobuses are also equipped with cameras to nab vehicles that block the bus lane.
Though they certainly can annoy drivers, many residents seem to approve of them: The District Department of Transportation says it has received thousands of requests for new cameras from frustrated pedestrians. It can feel, in a tangible way, as though cars are moving around town at a slower pace.
While some of the decline in traffic deaths might be, ironically, due to more traffic (anecdotally, there seem to be more cars, leading to possible lower traffic speeds), this is the second lowest number of traffic deaths in twenty years. It is not just a post-peak COVID, post-remote work decline.
But multiple Republicans want to end speeding cameras for various reasons, including one who was ticketed–unfairly, in my opinion*. It is one thing if that congressman wants to be petty in his own district, and the others just stupid in theirs; voters should get what they voted for, and get it good and hard. But the residents of D.C. would like to officials chosen by us to make those decisions, especially when it will prevent D.C. residents and visitors from dying.
In other words, Republicans want D.C. residents to be maimed or killed because of their own, unaccountable to D.C. bullshit.
D.C. statehood now.
*Ironically, if D.C. had House and Senate representation, he could have reached out to our congressional officials, who likely would have asked the city to waive the ticketl
Your whole day on one screen. Finalist is an iOS/macOS day planner that pulls in your calendars, reminders, and health data so nothing falls through the cracks.
The latest version launches now and adds subtasks, calendar bookmarks, HealthKit in your journal, and a spoken daily briefing you can trigger from your Lock Screen.
Run it alongside what you already use. It quietly picks up what your current setup doesn’t. Free trial on the App Store, Lifetime license available.
Over the years I’ve been writing here, I’ve often used the term speed bump to describe a certain type of hardware update: a new version of an existing product where the new stuff is mostly faster components, especially the CPU and GPU, but where a lot of the product, including the enclosure, remains unchanged. I’ve been thinking about it all week, as I tested the iPhone 17e, because the 17e is the epitome of a good speed bump. But it’s a funny term, because in real life, a speed bump — on the road — is something that slows you down. But in computer hardware it’s about going faster, or doing more, even if only slightly.
The other thing I find mildly amusing about the word “bump” and the iPhone 17e is that it’s the one and only iPhone in Apple’s lineup that doesn’t have a camera plateau — a.k.a. bump. The lens itself does jut out, slightly, but it’s just a lens, not a plateau, harking back to iPhones of yesteryear, like the iPhone XR from 2018.
Speed bump hardware updates never update every component. That’s not a speed bump. Only some components get updated. In a good speed bump update, the parts that get upgraded are the parts from the old model that were most lacking. My review last year of the iPhone 16e was fairly effusive, but I noted one primary omission: MagSafe. There were, of course, other compromises made for the 16e compared to higher-priced models in the lineup, but MagSafe was the one feature missing from the 16e that really bothered me. I’m not sure there was a single review of the 16e that didn’t list the omission of MagSafe as the 16e’s biggest shortcoming.
Apple’s explanation, a year ago, for omitting MagSafe was that the customers they were targeting with the 16e were people upgrading from 4-, 5-, or even 6-year-old iPhones, so they were accustomed to charging their phones by plugging in a cable. I can see that. People who bought an iPhone 16e in the last year didn’t miss MagSafe because they never had a phone with it. But, for those of us who have been using iPhones with MagSafe, the lack of MagSafe on the 16e was the primary reason to steer friends and family away from getting one. It’s not just about charging, either. I use MagSafe in a bunch of places, in a bunch of ways. I have a dock next to my bed and another next to my keyboard at my desk. I have a MagSafe mount on the dashboard of my car (which is so old it long predates CarPlay). I have a handful of MagSafe accessories like this snap-on stand from Moft that I recommended last summer, and portable MagSafe battery packs like this one from Anker (battery packs like these make for great travel items — they double as bedside chargers in hotels). I don’t carry a MagSafe card wallet or use PopSocket-style attachments, but a lot of people do. MagSafe is just great, and the lack of it on the 16e was the biggest reason not to recommend it. Just because the target audience wouldn’t miss it — because their old phone didn’t have it — doesn’t mean they wouldn’t miss out by not having it on their new one.
Well, that’s over. The 17e has MagSafe, and supports inductive charging at speeds up to 15W. (The iPhone Air supports charging up to 20W, and the 17 and 17 Pro models up to 25W.) Apple could have stopped there — with the addition of MagSafe alone — and the 17e would’ve been a successful year-over-year update.
But that would’ve been only a ... err ... mag bump, not a speed bump. Apple also bumped the SoC from the A18 to the A19, the current-generation chip from the regular iPhone 17. This is not a huge deal, year-over-year, but faster is faster and newer is better. (The $599 iPhone 17e, with the A19, benchmarks faster in single-core CPU performance than the $599 MacBook Neo, with the year-old A18 Pro.)
The upgrade to the A19 enables a better image-processing pipeline for the camera, which allows the 17e to offer Apple’s “next-generation portraits”, which are an obvious improvement over the previous portrait mode offered by the 16e. But the camera hardware itself — lenses and sensors, both front and back — is unchanged year-over-year. The technical specs for the camera, as reported by Halide’s nifty Technical Readout feature, are identical to the 16e. It’s a fine camera, but not a great camera. Just like last year with the 16e, the camera’s limitations are most noticeable in low-light situations. Still, both of these things are true:
The 17e camera system remains limited to Apple’s original Photographic Styles; all the other iPhones in the new A19 generation — the 17, 17 Pro, and Air — offer the much improved “latest-generation” Photographic Styles. In practice, this means the system Camera app on the 17e only offers these styles: Standard, Rich Contrast, Vibrant, Warm, and Cool. The second-generation Photographic Styles, which debuted last year on the iPhone 16 models, offer a much wider variety of styles and more fine-grained control, all of which processing is non-destructive. To name one obvious scenario, the new generation of Photographic Styles offers several black-and-white styles. When you shoot with these B&W styles, you can subsequently change your mind and apply one of the color styles in the Photos app, because the styles aren’t baked-in. But with the original-generation Photographic Styles — the one the 17e is limited to — the styles you shoot with are baked into the HEIC (or JPEG) files. You can apply non-destructive filters in post, including black-and-white filters, but those filters are simplistic compared to the new-generation Photographic Styles — and unlike the new Photographic Styles, you can’t preview the old filters live in the Camera app viewfinder. If you care about any of this, you should spend the extra $200 to get the regular iPhone 17, or perhaps, the still-for-sale iPhone 16, both of which offer both better camera hardware and software than the 17e. If you don’t care about any of this, the 17e might be the iPhone for you.
Here’s a link to Apple’s ever-excellent Compare page, with a comparison of the 16e vs. 17e vs. 17. (For posterity, here’s that Compare page archived as a PDF.) Other than the addition of MagSafe, the next biggest change from last year’s 16e to the new 17e is that base storage has increased from 128 to 256 GB (while the starting price has remained unchanged at $600). Nice. Also, there’s a third color option, “soft pink”, in addition to white and black. Lastly, the 17e gains the Ceramic Shield 2 front glass, which Apple claims offers 3× better scratch resistance. That’s nice too.
That’s about it for what’s improved in the 17e compared to the 16e. But that’s enough. With the old iPhone SE models, Apple only updated the hardware every 3–5 years. The new e models are seemingly on the same annual upgrade cycle as the other generation-numbered models.1 Adding MagSafe, going from the A18 to A19, increasing base storage, and adding a new colorway is a solid speed bump.
The next way to consider the 17e is by comparing it to the base iPhone 17. What do you miss if you go with the 17e — or, what do you gain by paying an extra $200 for the 17?
The base 17 has a ProMotion display with dynamic refresh rates up to 120 Hz and an always-on display. It’s also a brighter display (1000 vs. 800 nits SDR, 1600 vs. 1200 nits HDR). The iPhone 17 is the first base model iPhone with ProMotion, and it also sports a slightly bigger display (6.3″ vs. 6.1″) despite the fact that the 17 is only 2mm taller and exactly the same width as the 17e — the increased screen size is mostly from having smaller bezels surrounding the display.
The iPhone 17 comes with Apple’s second-generation Ultra Wideband chip for precision Find My support. If you track, say, an AirTag using the Find My app, the iPhone 17 supports the cool feature that guides you right to the device, with distances down to fractions of a foot. The iPhone 17e doesn’t support that — it just lets you do the old Find My stuff, like having the lost device play a sound, and showing its location on a map.
Camera Control: On my personal iPhone 17 Pro, I only use the Camera Control button for launching the Camera app, and as a shutter within Camera (and other camera apps, like !Camera, Analogue,2 and Halide). I don’t use it for adjusting controls, because it’s just too finicky. But I love it as a dedicated launcher and shutter button. I keep trying to invoke it on the 17e to launch the Camera app, even now, a few days into daily driving it.
The iPhone 17 has the clever Dynamic Island; the 17e has a dumb notch. The Dynamic Island is nice to have, but despite having one on my personal phone for 3.5 years (it debuted with the 14 Pro in 2022), I can’t say I’ve particularly missed it during the better part of a week that I’ve been using the 17e as my primary phone. I actually had to double check that the 17e doesn’t have it while first writing this paragraph, because, over my first few days of testing, I just hadn’t noticed. But then I went out and ran an errand requiring an Uber ride, while listening to a podcast, and I noticed the lack of a Dynamic Island — no live status update for the hailed Uber, and no quick-tap button for jumping back into Overcast.
And last, but far from least, the iPhone 17 has significantly better camera hardware: the 1× main camera is better; it offers a 0.5× ultra wide lens that the 17e completely lacks; and the all-new front-facing camera is vastly superior.
That’s a fair amount of better stuff for $200. But none of those things jumps out to me as a reason not to recommend the 17e for someone who considers price their highest priority. With 256 GB of storage, even the base model 17e is recommendable without hesitation. The omission of MagSafe on last year’s 16e was low-hanging fruit for Apple to add this year, as was the meager base storage of 128 GB. I don’t think there’s anything on par with MagSafe for next year’s iPhone 18e. (My first choice would be the second-generation Ultra Wideband chip — I’d like to see precision location make it into everything Apple sells sooner rather than later.)
Across several days of testing, 5G cellular reception was strong, and battery life was long. I ran Speedtest a few times, at different locations in Center City Philadelphia, and each time got download speeds above 500 Mbps and upload speeds around 40–50 Mbps. Apple’s in-house C1X modem is simply great.
Here’s a table with pricing for the iPhone models Apple currently sells:
| iPhone | SoC | 128 GB | 256 GB | 512 GB | 1 TB | 2 TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17e | A19 | — | $600 | $800 | — | |
| 16 | A18 | $700 | — | — | — | — |
| 16 Plus | A18 | $800 | $900 | — | — | — |
| 17 | A19 | — | $800 | $1000 | — | — |
| Air (17) | A19 Pro | — | $1000 | $1200 | $1400 | — |
| 17 Pro | A19 Pro | — | $1100 | $1300 | $1500 | — |
| 17 Pro Max | A19 Pro | — | $1200 | $1400 | $1600 | $2000 |
This is a very compelling lineup, and the 17e shores up the lowest price point with aplomb:
In New York last week at Apple’s hands-on “experience” for the media, which was primarily about the MacBook Neo, I got the chance to talk about the 17e, too. Apple’s product marketing people tend to compare the 17e against the iPhone 11 and 12. Those are the iPhones most would-be 17e buyers are upgrading from. Things they’ll notice if they do upgrade to a 17e:
Frankly, I’m not sure who the year-old iPhone 16 is for today, especially considering that Apple is now only offering it with 128 GB of storage. People on a tight budget but who really want an ultra wide 0.5× second camera lens? The potential appeal of the still-available 16 Plus is more obvious: if you want a big-screen iPhone, it’s much less expensive than a 17 Pro Max. And, unlike the regular iPhone 16, the 16 Plus is available with 256 GB. But at that point, I’d encourage whoever is considering the $900 iPhone 16 Plus with 256 GB storage to pay an extra $100 and get the iPhone Air instead. The overall lineup would have more coherence and clarity if Apple just eliminated the two 16 models. I suspect Apple is on the cusp of completely moving away from the strategy of selling two- and three-year-old iPhones at lower prices, and updating their entire lineup with annual speed bumps.
It remains to be seen how frequently Apple intends to update the iPhone Air, which conspicuously lacks a “17” in its name. ↩︎
Analogue is a relatively new app by developer Cristian Teichner. It uses Apple’s Log imaging pipeline, which Apple primarily intends for video capture. But Analogue uses the Log pipeline for both video and still photography. One side effect of this is that still photos are a bit “zoomed in”, because the video capture pipeline uses a slight crop of the overall sensor. For the same reason, Analogue’s “full frame” aspect ratio is 16:9, not 4:3. But the benefit is that Analogue uses LUTs for image processing/color grading, and can do so non-destructively. It results in delightful, film-like images. I’ve been shooting with Analogue quite a bit on my iPhone 17 Pro. Alas, Analogue doesn’t work on the 17e, because the 17e doesn’t support Log capture. In fact, Analogue only works on the 15 Pro, 16 Pro, and 17 Pro models, because those are the only iPhones that support the “pro” imaging pipeline. Even the $1,200 iPhone Air, which sports an A19 Pro chip, does not. ↩︎︎
We examine the historical frequency of stock market booms, crashes, and bubbles in the United States from 1792 to 2024 using aggregate market data and industry-level portfolios. We define a bubble as a large boom followed by a crash that reverses the market’s prior gains. Bubbles are extremely rare. We extend the industry-level analysis of Greenwood, Shleifer, and You (2019) through 2024 and replicate their findings out of sample using Cowles Commission industry data from 1871 to 1938. Booms do not reliably predict crashes, but they do predict higher subsequent volatility, increasing the likelihood of both large gains and large losses.
That is from a new NBER working paper by William N. Goetzmann, Otto Manninen, and James Tyler.
The post How frequent are price bubbles? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
The second part of Jim Benford’s examination of Breakthrough Starshot concludes our look at the numerous issues advanced by Phase I of the project. Largely discounted in recent press coverage, the Starshot effort in fact completed a successful Phase I and left behind numerous papers that illuminate the path forward for interstellar flight. This is solid work on everything from laser arrays to metamaterials and the engineering of data return at light-year distances. Read on.
by James Benford
“I have learned to use the word ‘impossible’ with great caution.”
— Wernher Von Braun, after the lunar landing
In this second report, I will describe the major results of Starshot beginning with the mission scenario and then treating each major technical area in terms of how solutions have been resolved and issues retired. In Part 1, I described Phase 1 objectives.
One of the causes of Starshot results not being well-known publicly is that the Breakthrough Foundation has not publicized its events and results during most of its duration. After its completion, substantial reports have appeared, but are not commonly available to the public. There is a final report, but it has yet to be published. There are briefings by Harry Atwater at Breakthrough Discuss and the IRG in Montreal in 2023 [1,2].
The most detailed discussions are in the book Laser Propulsion in Space edited by Claude Phipps, with a system overview by Pete Worden and others, a description of his system model by Kevin Parkin and other aspects of directed energy in space by Philip Lubin, all in the one volume [3]. The Kevin Parkin article is particularly interesting because it contains fully worked-out examples of the possibility of future voyages of humans traveling to the stars in large >100 m sailcraft in future centuries. Note that there are many journal publications produced by Breakthrough Starshot. And there are many papers that have been published since Starshot was put on hold.

The Starshot Mission Scenario has evolved as a substantial improvement over previous beam-driven sail mission concepts. A mothership is launched which houses a fleet of membrane-like sailcraft measuring ~5 meters in diameter and less than a micron thick. The traditional standard laser guide star adaptive optic system can’t be scaled to Starshot-sized apertures to deal with the time–dependent fluctuations due to atmospheric turbulence. The system uses a satellite–based laser which is called the Beacon. It’s in an orbit at the launch time of apogee 200,000 km.

Image: Starshot system geometry. Arrows indicate that the array acquires atmospheric turbulence data from a Beacon and points the beam at the sailcraft. (Courtesy of Breakthrough Foundation.)
The sailcraft are composed of super-reflective metamaterials that stabilize the perturbations that could prevent beam-riding during the propulsion phase. The scientific instruments that are the payload are integrated into the sail. The mission begins as the mothership deploys a sailcraft into space.
Meanwhile on Earth, a phased array of 100 million small lasers turns on, generates ~100 GW of optical power and, using information from a Beacon in high orbit, digitally adjusts the phase of the emitted light to correct for atmospheric turbulence. These small lasers would be manufactured in printed sheets, following the fabrication techniques of the semiconductor industry. This is the means of lowering laser prices.
The single 100 GW beam focuses on the sail and accelerates the sail. Almost no energy is absorbed by the sail’s reflective surface, so imparting force. The sail rides the beam for ten minutes and reaches relativistic speed. It leaves the solar system in less than a week. Soon after acceleration it encounters dust and charged particles, so can be oriented edge-on to avoid such collisions. On arriving at the Alpha Centauri system, it captures images, detects dust and particles and measures fields. The sail transmits data home to an array of optical receivers on Earth, so it begins to arrive four years later. Data return may take decades because of limited data rate. Recall that complete data return from the New Horizons flyby took about a year.

The above figure shows a concept for the sail, about 5 m in diameter. Some studies show that at the velocity under consideration the gas and dust will pass through the thin sail with virtually no damage if it travels face-on. Only the payload would need protection. The sail can also be oriented edge-on in order to avoid such collisions, giving meters of material protection to the center. The payload is around the center, protected from damage due to incoming gas and dust.
Key issues for beam-driven sail systems have been retired by high levels of Starshot research. Most are resolved at the conceptual level. Experiments are needed to verify solutions for these major issues, discussed below.
Can phase be maintained across a large aperture composed of many sources? This is well demonstrated historically for microwaves, principally for radar. For lasers, a new concept has been quantified [4, 5]. Building the hundred million laser emitters into a large array is the driving technical challenge of the project. The principle of the design is to interferometrically link multiple arrays which are phase-locked into modular tiers of larger size. That is, multiple areas which are individually phase controlled would be linked together by interferometry. This approach of linking multiple optical phased arrays is called a hierarchical array. The array design that resulted has laser dimensions and total power levels that are about five orders of magnitude beyond present state of the art capabilities. To control the phase over such a large aperture is the most significant technical challenge to Starshot.
Can a sail material be found which can meet the many constraints on sail acceleration? Most materials effort has been for laser propulsion, where the leading candidate for sail material is silicon nitride. There are no fundamental limits to optimize that material for the key parameters of mass, reflectivity, refractive index, and thermal properties. (For microwaves various types of carbon are preferred, such as microtruss and graphene.)
Can the sail ride on the beam stably? (Feedback is impossible over long ranges.) If not, sails can veer off-course on millisecond timescale. The notion of beam-riding, stable flight of a sail propelled by a beam, places considerable emphasis on the sail shape. Even for a steady beam, the sail can wander off if its shape becomes deformed or if it does not have enough spin to keep its angular momentum aligned with the beam direction in the face of perturbations. Beam pressure will keep a concave shape sail in tension, and it will resist sidewise motion if the beam moves off-center, as a sidewise restoring force restores it to its position. Early stability experiments verified that beam-riding does occur with a conical sail [6].

Experiments and simulations show that conical sails ride a microwave beam stably. The carbon–carbon sail diameter is 5 cm, height 2 cm, and mass 0.056 g.

Beam riding and structural stability is difficult. (a), beam-riding stability, where bold upward arrows depict accelerating beam, light upward arrows the force of radiation pressure, downward arrows the direction of reflected light (b) structural stability methods (c) mechanical issues [7].
Meter-scale shaped sails of submicron, ~100 atomic layer thickness can ride with stability along the axis of the accelerating beam despite the many types of deformations caused by photon pressure and thermal expansion. There is also a requirement for structural stability, the ability to survive acceleration without collapse, and crumpling under acceleration, as depicted in the figure above. And there could be thermal and tensile failure as well as rupture of sail materials. Many studies of this issue have shown multiple solutions.
Stable designs exist for concave shapes and for flat flexible sails with millimeter scale photonic structures to control reflections. (Simple flat sails cannot achieve beam-riding stability because specular reflection produces forces only normal (perpendicular) to the surface.) A considerable advantage of flat sails is that curved sail shapes are more difficult to fabricate at meter scales. However, Starshot has shown that even flat sails can beam-ride by tailoring asymmetric optical properties to produce transverse restoring forces with millimeter-scale photonic structures to control reflections. So a flat sailcraft can be modified to scatter light as if it were curved. For example, the Swartzlander group, in a series of theoretical, computational, and experimental studies, has shown that a flat sail whose reflecting surface is equipped with diffractive gratings is directionally stable [8,9]. Anisotropic scattering of incident light into the grating diffraction orders manifests in optical restoring forces transverse to the membrane, redirecting incident photon momentum to produce beam-riding.
Such metagratings or metasurfaces consist of subwavelength scatterers shaped as disks, blocks, spheres, etc. shape the scattered wavefronts, redirecting incident photon momentum transversely. This provides stabilizing restoring forces and torques. However, adding metagratings makes the sail heavier than the ~0.1 gram per square meter goal. And photonic grating patterns would have to be produced over a large area. The advantage of flat sails will significantly streamline and simplify the fabrication process. The issue is whether such structures can be scaled to manufacture on the size of meters with low mass.
Spin-stabilization will likely be needed to prevent the collapse of sails while acceleration is underway. A beam can carry angular momentum and communicate it to a sail to help control it in flight. Spin can be modified remotely by circularly polarized beams from the ground [10]. It also allows ‘hands-off’ unfurling deployment through control of the sail spin at a distance [10-12]. Spinning them at ~100 Hz rates gyroscopically stabilizes sails against drift, yaw and tilting, allowing numerous shapes to retain their stability. (Circularly polarized electromagnetic fields carry both linear and angular momentum, which acts to produce a torque through an effective moment arm of a wavelength, so longer wavelengths are more efficient in producing spin.)
A final and crucial issue: Can the data be returned from distant space targets at sufficient data rates before the sail moves far beyond the star? For solar system-scale missions this is possible with existing microwave communication technologies. that were realized 50 years ago in the Deep Space Network. For interstellar missions it is possible by using laser communications. Though today’s laser communication systems are far too heavy for Starshot, which instead aims to operate part of its sail as an optical phased array. There are methods of making this likely in future decades [13]. That is because we understand essentially completely the fundamental limits on communication, and our technology today is able to operate very close to those limits.
The mission objective is to return 100 kB of data. The power requirement on board is driven primarily by the communication needs as well as pointing, tracking and computation. The energy technology is a thin film, radioisotope thermoelectric generator.
Propulsion-oriented scientists usually assume that the mission should be done at maximum speed. But information scientists’ relation to speed is different; they focus on how it affects the data return:
* Slower is better since observations are easier and there is more time in the vicinity of the target star.
* The measure of mission performance is the volume of data returned reliably vs the ‘data latency’ (defined as time from acquisition at Centauri to return to Earth of an entire observational data set).
So from this perspective speed is a secondary parameter except as it influences the data volume and data latency, which will relate to the payload mass, and in particular the communications mass.
Messerschmitt, Lubin and Morrison have studied the minimum data latency that can be achieved for a given data volume, or equivalently the maximum data volume that can be achieved for a given data latency [13, 14]. Generally, they reduce speed for high latency (with the benefit of larger data volume, so larger mass, more instrumentation, and larger data volume).
From this, the key insight that governs the difficult problem of returning data over interstellar distance is that a cost-optimized (meaning cost minimized) system scales as the relation between speed v and mass m: v~1/m1/4. That means we can have a much heavier communication system onboard. Achieving the data return is more credible. This leads to an optimum mass that maximizes data volume for a given data latency. Future communications research will deal with several probes downlinking concurrently from the same target star. Separating these downlinks (‘multiplexing’, using different formats, polarization, etc.) is very challenging,
That leads to a very significant development conclusion: We would of course develop heavier, lower velocity probes early on as the Beamer is being built out. The Beamer will be built by adding modules of power and aperture over time. It is likely what will happen is that technologies advance, such as sail materials are improved and mass is reduced. As faster solar system deep space missions occur, mass will either drop as the system performance improves or will increase for faster, better data return. That’s the natural development path, leading to faster, better missions.
The on-board pointing system of the sail is also a technical challenge. It must point in the direction of our Solar System, and the beam will be larger than Earth’s orbital diameter, 2 AU. That means a pointing accuracy of a milliarcsecond, about 10 microradians.
Phase I confirmed that short wavelength optical communications can provide the required down-link capability with limited data rate. Low-cost receiver aperture concepts were developed.
System Cost
Before I joined Starshot, I developed an analysis for cost optimization of beam-driven sail systems. In it, the trade-off was between the cost of the sources powering the array versus the cost of the array itself. That was in agreement with the cost of transmitter systems that had been built for interplanetary communications. My conclusion was that the minimum capital cost is achieved when the cost is equally divided between the array antenna and the radiated power [15].
However, Starshot requires more power than can be directly supplied by the normal electrical grid. Therefore, energy storage for the system has to be included, and becomes a substantial cost element [16, 17]. That results in a considerable change in the laser aperture, laser power, and energy storage cost. The result is that the laser cost, which is ~80% of the array cost, becomes the dominant element in the total project cost. The cost trends shown below demonstrate that cost is viable for future fiber amplifiers at ~$0.10/W, and future semiconductor lasers at ~$0.01/W.
The figure below shows that current laser fiber amplifiers and semiconductor laser costs are far too high to afford a Starshot system today. The hope is that economies of scale in the application of lasers to aspects of modern life, for example self-driving cars, will drive down the cost of lasers by economies of scale. In order to reach an affordable level for Starshot, the prices have to fall to order of cents per watt, not many dollars per watt we have today. The points at 2040 and 2050 shows what will have to occur if the cost of Starshot is to be of order 10 billion dollars. That requirement is two to three orders of magnitude cost reduction.

Image: Cost trends for fiber amplifiers and semiconductor lasers.
The Future of Beam-driven Sails
Phase II technical demonstrations, such as laboratory beam-riding sail flights and including orbital sail deployment and sail acceleration, would lead to a firm experimental basis for pilot production of the key sub-systems, leading to the beginning of array construction. That would later lead to precursor missions.
While the Beamer is under construction, many missions become possible that are at speeds lower than interstellar, as well as other applications. The laser driver can beam power to locations in space, such as Earth satellites and space stations. It can deorbit orbital debris. It can drive fast sail missions to the Moon, Mars and the outer planets. At Mars, it could have a second laser array to decelerate the spacecraft, or a retro reflector system, such as proposed by Forward, could reflect a beam from Earth to slow the sailcraft at Mars. And it can beam power to high-performance ion engines.
Development of fast sailcraft that can travel beyond our solar system will enable us to understand the interstellar medium and then, in the fast encounter with other star systems, acquire imaging, spectroscopy, and in situ particle and field measurements.
Beam-driven sails are the only way that probes can be sent to the stars in this century. Completion of Phase II would bring much-increased credibility to the concept by demonstrating beam-riding and operation of a Beamer module in the laboratory. Then the dream of beam-driven interstellar travel could be realized.
Kevin Parkin has even envisioned human beam-driven fast travel to the stars. Accelerating at Earth gravity to relativistic speeds, allowing us to contemplate human travel in future. He points out that human civilizations’ energy production doubled every 40 years since 1800, so that the energies needed for the simplest such missions will be attainable by the end of the century.
Acknowledgements: Figures are by permission of Breakthrough Starshot and Michael Kelzenberg. I also want to thank Kevin Parkin, Dave Messerschmitt and Al Jackson for technical discussions about Starshot.
References
1) Atwater, H. Starshot: from science to spacecraft to missions, Harry Atwater, Interstellar Research Group , Montreal 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV2sNOYzaFA
2) See also same title, Breakthrough Discuss, Harry Atwater, 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrLcllx0LpQ
3. Laser Propulsion in Space: Fundamentals, Technology, and Future Missions, Claude Phipps, ed., Elsevier., Cambridge, MA ,2024.
4. Worden S., Green, W. Schalkwyk, J., Parkin K., and Fugate R., “Progress on the Starshot Laser Propulsion System,” Applied Optics, doi: 10.1364/AO.435858, 2021.
5. Bandutunga C., Sibley P., Ireland M. J., and Ward, R., “Photonic solution to phase sensing and control for light-based interstellar propulsion”, J. Opt. Soc. of Am. B, 38, 1477-1486, 2021.
6. Benford, G., Goronostavea, O., and Benford, J., “Experimental tests of beam-riding sail dynamics” in Beamed Energy Propulsion, AIP Conference Proceedings 664, Pakhomov, A., Ed. 325, 2003.
7. Gao, R., Kelzenberg M. D., and Atwater H. A., “Dynamically Stable Radiation Pressure Propulsion of Flexible Lightsails for Interstellar Exploration”, Nature Comun, 15, 4203. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47476-1, 2024,
8. Srivastava P., Chu Y., and Swartzlander G., “Stable diffractive beam rider,” Opt. Lett. 44, 3082-3085, 2019.
9. Chu Y., Tabiryan N. and Swartzlander G., Experimental Verification of a Bigrating Beam Rider. Phys Rev Lett. (123(24), 2024.
10. Benford, G., Goronostavea, O., and Benford, J., “Spin of microwave propelled sails,” in Beamed Energy Propulsion, AIP Conference Proceedings 664, Pakhomov, A., Ed., 313, 2003.
11. Benford, J. and Benford, G., “Elastic, electrostatic and spin deployment of ultralight sails”, JBIS 59 76, 2006.
12. Martin, P. et al., “Detection of a Spinning Object Using Light’s Orbital Angular Momentum” Science 341 537, 2013.
13. Messerschmitt D., Lubin P. and Morrison I., “Challenges in Scientific Data Communication from Low-mass Interstellar Probes”, ApJS 249,36, 2020.
14. Messerschmitt D., Lubin P. and Morrison I., “Interstellar flyby scientific data downlink design,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.13550, 2023.
15. Benford, J., “Starship Sails Propelled by Cost-Optimized Directed Energy”, JBIS 66, 85, 2013)
16 Parkin, K., “The Breakthrough Starshot Systems Model”, Acta Astronautica 152, 370–384, 2018.
17. Parkin, K., “Starshot System Model” in Laser Propulsion in Space: Fundamentals, Technology, and Future Missions, Claude Phipps, ed., Elsevier., Cambridge, MA ,2024.

1. Metropolitan Opera is trying to raise money (NYT).
2. How to write a LOTR bestseller (short video, with profanity).
3. Good WSJ review of the new Macca movie.
The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Repossessed cars for sale attract serious buyers for one reason: these vehicles are usually in good condition. They weren’t wrecked. They weren’t flooded. They ended up at auction because a loan went unpaid, not because the car failed.
But “good shape” still needs to be verified. Maintenance gaps, undisclosed mileage irregularities, and clean-looking titles that hide a complicated history are all real risks in this segment. Researching before you bid is the difference between a smart purchase and a costly one.
In this post, we’ll break down a data-first approach to evaluating repo cars for sale — what to check, where to find the information, and how to use it to set a bid you won’t regret.
The term “repossession” often carries a stigma, but in the context of professional vehicle auctions, it simply refers to a change in ownership triggered by a financial default. These vehicles are often sourced from major lenders, credit unions, and captive finance companies. Because these institutions are in the business of lending rather than car sales, they utilize auction platforms to recoup the remaining loan balances as efficiently as possible.
When searching for repossessed cars for sale, you are often looking at a cross-section of the general driving public. These are not necessarily damaged cars; in many cases, they are well-maintained daily drivers that happened to be involved in a personal financial transition. This means the inventory frequently includes late-model SUVs, fuel-efficient sedans, and work-ready trucks that are only a few years old. The primary difference between these and a retail used car is the price point and the venue of sale.
The specialized nature of the bank repo auction creates a distinct pricing environment. Unlike a traditional used-car lot, where a dealer adds a markup to cover overhead, sales commissions, and marketing, an auction focuses on the true market value determined by active bidders. This “pure” pricing model offers a level of transparency rarely found in the retail world.
For a buyer, the goal is to identify vehicles that have been overlooked or undervalued by others. This is where integrating vehicle history data becomes essential. By reviewing the title records, lien history, and previous sales data, you can build a profile of the vehicle’s life before it reached the auction block. Knowing that a vehicle had a single owner or a clean maintenance record in a specific region provides the confidence needed to bid aggressively on high-quality assets.
While the financial benefits of buying repossessed inventory are clear, the process is not without its variables. Since the previous owner may have been under financial stress, it’s possible that routine maintenance, such as oil changes or brake service, was deferred in the months leading up to the repossession.
When evaluating repo cars for sale, we recommend a “data-first” approach. This involves checking for any outstanding recalls and reviewing the odometer progression. A vehicle that shows a consistent, logical increase in mileage is often a reliable daily driver. Conversely, large gaps in the history or inconsistencies in the title branding should be flagged for further investigation. By using professional history reports, you can verify that the “bank-seized” status hasn’t masked other underlying issues, such as past accidents or mechanical failures that weren’t reported to the lender.
It is important to distinguish between vehicles sold due to financial reasons and those sold due to damage. While insurance-sourced vehicles (such as salvage or rebuilt units) are priced based on repair costs, repossessed units are priced based on market demand and the lender’s urgency. This often results in a higher “floor” price for repossessed units, but with the trade-off of a much lower repair requirement.
For many buyers, the ideal scenario is finding a vehicle that fits into both categories — perhaps a repossessed unit with minor cosmetic flaws. These “hybrid” opportunities allow for the maximum possible discount. By focusing on the structural and mechanical health revealed in the data, you can determine if a vehicle is worth the investment. The availability of 2026-level diagnostic tools and historical auction photos makes it easier than ever to assess the car’s condition at the exact moment the bank took possession.
Success at a bank repo auction requires a combination of discipline and speed. Because these auctions move quickly, having your research completed beforehand is vital. We suggest creating a shortlist of potential targets and setting a maximum bid for each based on the “all-in” cost, including the winning bid, auction fees, and transport costs.
Once the bidding begins, the data you’ve gathered serves as your guide. If the price exceeds your calculated value, it is time to move on to the next unit. The volume of repossessed inventory is consistent enough that another opportunity is usually just a few days away. This “patience-led” strategy ensures you acquire only assets that meet your specific criteria for quality and price.
The work isn’t finished when the screen says “Sold.” As mentioned, the transition period is critical. Most auction yards have limited space and will begin charging daily storage fees almost immediately. Coordinating with a reliable shipping partner ensures your new acquisition is picked up promptly, protecting your margins from unnecessary fees.
Furthermore, ensure that all title documentation is handled through the proper channels. Most auction platforms facilitate the transfer of title from the bank to the buyer, but timelines can vary by state and lender. Keeping a clear record of the bill of sale and the transport receipt is essential for a smooth registration process at the DMV.
The repossessed vehicle market is one of the most effective ways to acquire late-model transportation at a professional price. By moving away from the retail showroom and into the data-driven world of the auction, you gain access to a wider variety of inventory and a more transparent pricing structure. Whether you are a first-time buyer looking for a reliable sedan or a professional looking to expand a fleet, the combination of thorough history research and a disciplined bidding strategy is the key to unlocking the true value of repossessed assets.
Photo: DC Studio via their website.
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For many years, getting approved for a loan in America was difficult if your credit history was less than perfect. Many borrowers found themselves with few options when traditional lenders turned them away. Today, that situation is changing as more lenders offer loan options designed for people with lower credit scores.
As access to bad credit loans expands, more Americans are finding it easier to borrow when they need financial help. Simple online applications and faster decisions have made loans more accessible than before. These changes are starting to influence how people borrow, manage money, and plan for unexpected expenses.
The growth of digital lending has made online applications a normal part of the borrowing process. Today, borrowers can apply for loans from almost anywhere, giving them the freedom to explore options at their own pace. This convenience has encouraged more people to consider borrowing when financial needs arise.
Online lenders have also expanded access for individuals with less-than-perfect credit, offering solutions designed for a wider range of financial profiles. Companies such as CreditNinja, for instance, focus on providing online installment loans that can help cover unexpected expenses, medical bills, or other urgent costs. The ability to complete an application digitally and, in some cases, receive funds quickly has made this type of borrowing particularly practical in time-sensitive situations.
Digital tools have also made the application process easier to understand and complete. Clear instructions and simple forms guide borrowers through each step so they know what information is required. As online lending continues to expand, it is becoming an important part of how Americans borrow and manage short-term financial needs.
Access to bad credit loans has enabled more households to use borrowing as a practical way to manage daily expenses. Instead of limiting loans to major purchases, many borrowers now use them to cover necessary costs that arise throughout the month. This approach gives people more flexibility when balancing income and expenses.
Many borrowers appreciate having an option available when bills or essential purchases cannot be postponed. Access to funds at the right time can help households stay current on essential financial obligations. As lending options continue to expand, short-term borrowing has become a more accessible and practical solution for a broader range of Americans
This shift reflects a broader change in how loans fit into personal financial planning. Borrowing is increasingly viewed as a tool that supports financial stability rather than a last resort. Expanded loan access has helped make this approach possible for more consumers.
Short-term borrowing has become more common as access to loans expands to include a wider range of credit profiles. Many borrowers now have the opportunity to obtain funds quickly when temporary financial needs arise. This availability has made short-term credit a useful resource for managing short-term financial pressure.
Access to short-term loans enables borrowers to respond quickly to changing financial circumstances. Whether dealing with unexpected expenses or timing differences between income and bills, short-term credit offers a flexible solution. The ability to secure funds quickly is one reason more people are incorporating short-term loans into their financial plans.
Wider availability of these loans reflects how lending has adapted to modern financial needs. Borrowers benefit from options that match real-life situations rather than rigid lending standards. Expanded access to bad credit loans has played an important role in making these options available.
Modern lending processes enable borrowers to move from application to decision far more efficiently than in the past. Quicker responses allow individuals to address financial needs without extended delays or uncertainty.This efficiency has become an important part of how people approach borrowing decisions.
When decisions can be made quickly, borrowers can plan with greater certainty. Knowing whether funds will be available helps people organize their finances and move forward with confidence. Faster timelines have made borrowing feel more manageable and predictable.
Improved technology has helped simplify each step of the borrowing process. Applications are designed to be straightforward to complete. As a result, borrowers can make informed choices without unnecessary delays.
Improved loan access has made borrowing a more regular activity for some consumers. Instead of applying for loans only occasionally, borrowers may seek funding at different times throughout the year as needs arise. This pattern reflects the growing role of flexible credit in modern financial life.
Experience with the borrowing process often makes future applications easier and more familiar. Once borrowers understand how loan applications work, they tend to feel more comfortable using them again. This familiarity contributes to a steady pattern of borrowing over time.
Borrowing is entering a new phase as more Americans gain access to loans that were once harder to get. With more options available, people have greater freedom to handle financial needs in ways that work for their situation.
Loans are becoming a more practical and accessible tool for managing everyday finances. This change is making credit easier to understand and use for a wider range of borrowers. As access to borrowing continues to grow, many Americans will have more opportunities to use it to support their financial goals.
Photo: Polina Tankilevitch via Pexels.
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The post Expanding Bad Credit Loan Access: What This Means for America’s Borrowing Habits appeared first on DCReport.org.

Washington, D.C. — Meridian International Center today announced the return of its Space Diplomacy Forum: Shared Horizons (https://diplomacyforum.meridian.org/space), a half-day forum dedicated to advancing cooperation in outer space at a […]
The post Meridian Space Diplomacy Forum & Executive Space Training – March 25 & 26 appeared first on SpaceNews.

Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. (SSTL), a British company best known for developing small satellites, will help build a large, privately funded space telescope.
The post SSTL to build spacecraft for private space telescope appeared first on SpaceNews.

Space Force pushes ahead with medium Earth orbit sensor layer for hypersonic tracking
The post Missile detection satellites designed by BAE Systems pass early review appeared first on SpaceNews.

NASA’s Commercial Crew Program was supposed to be the template: services-based procurement, private ownership of hardware and competition between providers. Yet NASA has now formally designated Boeing’s 2024 Starliner crewed test flight as a Type A mishap — its most serious category — and leadership has been explicit that the most troubling failure was not […]
The post Starliner and Artemis: commercial label vs. commercial discipline appeared first on SpaceNews.

Denver-based Lux Aeterna has secured $10 million in seed funding to develop a reusable satellite designed to survive atmospheric reentry and fly again with new payloads, starting with a demonstration flight slated for early 2027.
The post Lux Aeterna raises $10 million ahead of 2027 reusable satellite demo appeared first on SpaceNews.

Chinese launch startup Landspace says it has completed a long-duration full-system hot-fire test of its new 220-ton-class methane rocket engine for new-generation launchers.
The post Landspace tests 220-ton methane engine for future heavy-lift launchers appeared first on SpaceNews.
Here's the announcement:
"The R. K. Cho Economics Prize 2026 will be awarded to Professor Fuhito Kojima (University of Tokyo) for the practical development and implementation of matching theory.
"Professor Kojima is a leading scholar in the fields of matching theory and market design. He has developed these fields by studying practical aspects of matching markets such as large markets and distributional constraints. Building on his theoretical knowledge, he has contributed to the improvement of real-world matching and allocation mechanisms, including medical residency programs and nursery school admissions in Japan."
Here's the program of celebratory events:
2026 R. K. Cho Economics Prize Events (May 6-8)
Symposium Celebrating
Fuhito Kojima's Prize
323 Daewoo Hall, Yonsei University
May 6 (Wednesday)
9:00-9:20 Registration, Opening Remark
9:20-10:10 Fuhito Kojima (University of Tokyo)
"Fragmentation of Matching Markets and How Economics Can Help Integrate Them"
10:10-11:00 Michihiro Kandori (University of Tokyo)
"The Second Welfare Theorem in Markets with Discrete and Continuous Goods"
11:10-12:00 Yeon-Koo Che (Columbia University)
"Learning Against Nature: Minimax Regret and the Price of Robustness"
13:00-13:50 Duk Gyoo Kim (Yonsei University)
"Good-Citizen Lottery"
14:00-14:50 Jinwoo Kim (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
"Monotone Comparative Statics without Lattices"
Prize Ceremony
B130 Daewoo Hall, Yonsei University
May 6 (Wednesday)
15:00-15:20 Registration
15:20-16:10 Award Ceremony
16:20-17:10 Award Lecture by Fuhito Kojima
"Science and Engineering of Market Design: Call for Action"
Fuhito Kojima Public Lecture Series
323 Daewoo Hall, Yonsei University
May 7 (Thursday)
13:00-14:30 Lecture 1: "Introduction to Matching Theory and Market Design"
15:00-16:30 Lecture 2: "How to Use Market Design under Practical Constraints of Society: Part 1"
May 8 (Friday)
10:00-11:30 Lecture 3: "How to Use Market Design under Practical Constraints of Society: Part 2"
Organizers: Jaeok Park, Daeyoung Jeong, Duk Gyoo Kim
Contact: rkcho.prize@yonsei.ac.kr
I saw the first warning sign just ten days ago.
But even in that short period of time, the problem seems to have grown significantly. I don’t even want to imagine what the situation might be a month from now.
On February 28, I received an email from reader Biff LaTourette:
Is there anyplace to report synthetic, misattributed content on Spotify, with an eye to deterring such conduct? This morning, Spotify fed me an obviously counterfeit EP, purporting to be a collaboration by Benny Green and Freddy Cole.
Do you know how I could reach out to either Mr. Green or Mr. Cole’s estate? Does one of the royalty guardian outfits cover such infringement? Here’s the Spotify link.
Here’s the Lynkify summary of the same collection proliferated on Soundcloud and Tidal.
This was alarming—but I wanted to make sure this was really impersonation. So I reached out to Benny Green, who is a Facebook friend.
Benny confirmed that this was a fake—he didn’t release this album. He said his manager was working to get it taken down.
But this isn’t easy to do. As far as I can see, there is no easy way to protest illegal tracks on Spotify.
The following day, Benny Green reached out to his fans, asking for their help in finding some way to get Spotify to deal with the problem. But when I checked again today—a full week later—the offending album was still streaming.
And then the problem got worse.
Three days ago, I hear from another reader—Atlanta-based drummer Justin Chesarek. He had found another impersonation of a well-known jazz musician.
I wanted to share another discovery I made today….I just finished working with a student on Nat Adderley’s “Hippodelphia” when Spotify recommended a new track by Nat. The first sign was that it had a white trumpet player on the thumbnail image, then the name didn’t sound like any tune I had heard of before. It said “released 2026”. Clicked on it, and was subject to some terrible slop recording with no trumpet even on it and a very generic beat. I have uploaded some photos of the images they posted. Zoom in on the 3 handed bass/saxophone player!
I hate this so much. The credits do list Nat as the artist but then somebody else got lyric credit and I can guarantee they are not paying any royalties to Nat’s estate. Is there anything we can do to stop this obvious scam from further devaluing and defacing the artists and their music even more than streaming services have already?
But the scariest part of the story came next.
Just 12 minutes later, I got another email from Biff LaTourette
I hate to bother you again, but it appears someone is scaling up the illicit production and distribution of similar dreck on Spotify. This morning’s Release Radar featured another series of fraudulent misattributions in my feed.
Current victims include Marc Johnson, Jazzmeia Horn, Abbey Lincoln, Holly Cole, Gretchen Parlato, Bob Dorough, Billy Strayhorn, Bud Shank, and Nnenna Freelon. I’ve compiled links below to each misattributed song and album, along with Lynkify links to help assess the extent of proliferation across other platforms. I’ve also included the copyright notices that appear on the album pages of each suspect track.
Nine out of sixty-five cuts are falsely attributed synthetic dross—just shy of fourteen percent of my little feed. The volume of fraudulent slop flooding the platform seems to be reaching critical mass.
Is there an industry watchdog, public interest law firm, or other avenue that might be interested in addressing—or “spanking”—these spammers? If you have any thoughts on effective deterrence strategies, or if additional research on my end would be helpful, please let me know….
As of today, the albums linked all contained just one cut, with the exception of Marc Johnson. His fake EP contained five bogus titles. The production quality is less awful on the Johnson fabrications, compared with the rest.
You can check out these links, and judge for yourself whether these are authentic:
Several of these artists are deceased, and it’s not clear who will step in to defend them from AI impersonation.
Here’ the bottom line: This problem appears to have grown massively in just a few days. And if AI scammers can steal royalties without consequences, this will metastasize like a cancer throughout the music economy.
The fact that Spotify is encouraging listeners to check out these albums is especially troubling. I know so many deserving musicians who will never get this kind of promotion from a streaming service. Meanwhile impersonations are boosted.
Scammers are probably starting with jazz because these musicians have complicated discographies, and few listeners are knowledgeable enough to identify fake music. But if there’s no crackdown, this will quickly expand to other genres—maybe it already has.
Streaming platforms need to provide a simple way for users to flag illegal music. And they need to remove AI impersonations immediately. Companies involved in these scams should be prohibited from using the platform.
If streamers don’t do this, they must face consequences.
I will keep posted on this growing crisis. So check back here for updates.
I tweeted: Should I be worried or reassured that my taxi driver isn’t wearing a seat belt? An econ puzzle.
Most replies said I should be worried. I think that is correct and it reveals something of importance. First note that there is an incentive and a selection effect. All else equal, a driver without a seat belt should drive more carefully—that’s the rational response to increased personal risk. But drivers who forgo seat belts are probably more risk-loving or less safety-conscious across many dimensions. I think the replies were correct, the second effect, the selection effect, dominates: be worried.
What makes this an economics puzzle is that it reveals a failure of the standard adverse selection story. Adverse selection predicts that if someone wants to buy a lot of life insurance, the seller should be suspicious—fearing the buyer knows something about their own health that the seller doesn’t. Unusually healthy people, by the same logic, should buy less life insurance.
Notice the parallel to the taxi driver: the driver is buying less insurance (by not wearing a seat belt) and so, by adverse selection logic, should be the safer type. But that’s exactly backwards.
In reality, people who buy a lot of life insurance tend to be the kind of people who take care of themselves on many margins—they eat well, exercise, go to the doctor. Insurers know this, which is why the per-unit price of life insurance falls with quantity. Big buyers are the good risk, not the bad one.
The taxi driver puzzle is a clean real-world case where the selection effect runs opposite to what adverse selection theory predicts. Adverse selection theory is correct that information asymmetries can challenge markets but it’s often not obvious which way the asymmetry runs (who know more about your life expectancy, you or an insurance company with millions of data points?). Moreover, preferences and norms can make the selection run the opposite way so be worried about the taxi driver without a seat belt and be happy when someone demands a lot of life insurance.
The post Advantageous Selection appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Franz Boas helps us solve the puzzle of where our emotional lives originate: in our selves or in the cultures around us
- by Noga Arikha
That is the theme of my latest Free Press column, excerpt:
If you are a Dubai resident, the chance that you will die in this conflict is very small. But you no longer can treat safety as something you do not have to think about. And you may face some uncertainty about when and how you can leave the country, a question that formerly was never in doubt. So two major advantages have vanished, even if the current conflict is settled soon. Another problem is that a substantial part of your supply of desalinated fresh water can be taken out by a well-placed missile.
More generally, the war underlines how tenuous the position of a place like Dubai is in the geopolitical order. I have enjoyed my three trips to Dubai, but I never felt entirely safe there on anything beyond a day-to-day basis. I always knew the place relied on protection from the United States and a certain degree of forbearance from its larger neighbors, including Saudi Arabia. Both Dubai and its larger encompassing unit, the United Arab Emirates, are extremely small.
And:
In most daily life, the small tax havens will feel safer than Cape Town. In the longer run, I am not entirely sure. My longer-run plans might be more robust in Cape Town. Or in Brazil. Or in Mexico. Those are all fairly dangerous places that nonetheless seem to have considerable macro stability in the longer run. South Africa has a pre-1930 history of taking in persecuted Jews from Europe and giving them an environment where they can thrive. Even the coming and going of apartheid, in 1948 and 1994, did not change South Africa’s high degree of security from foreign threats.
Dare I suggest that these larger places are more fun and also have more soul?
Worth a ponder.
I would much rather be exiled to Cape Town than to Dubai, all things considered, even assuming away the current conflict in the Middle East.
The post Are the small tax havens really all that safe? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
It’s called AirSnitch:
Unlike previous Wi-Fi attacks, AirSnitch exploits core features in Layers 1 and 2 and the failure to bind and synchronize a client across these and higher layers, other nodes, and other network names such as SSIDs (Service Set Identifiers). This cross-layer identity desynchronization is the key driver of AirSnitch attacks.
The most powerful such attack is a full, bidirectional machine-in-the-middle (MitM) attack, meaning the attacker can view and modify data before it makes its way to the intended recipient. The attacker can be on the same SSID, a separate one, or even a separate network segment tied to the same AP. It works against small Wi-Fi networks in both homes and offices and large networks in enterprises.
With the ability to intercept all link-layer traffic (that is, the traffic as it passes between Layers 1 and 2), an attacker can perform other attacks on higher layers. The most dire consequence occurs when an Internet connection isn’t encrypted—something that Google recently estimated occurred when as much as 6 percent and 20 percent of pages loaded on Windows and Linux, respectively. In these cases, the attacker can view and modify all traffic in the clear and steal authentication cookies, passwords, payment card details, and any other sensitive data. Since many company intranets are sent in plaintext, traffic from them can also be intercepted.
Even when HTTPS is in place, an attacker can still intercept domain look-up traffic and use DNS cache poisoning to corrupt tables stored by the target’s operating system. The AirSnitch MitM also puts the attacker in the position to wage attacks against vulnerabilities that may not be patched. Attackers can also see the external IP addresses hosting webpages being visited and often correlate them with the precise URL.
Here’s the paper.
From my podcast with Nebular:
Cowen: Mainly what they have done is tricked people. The Apollo program was a big trick. It was not intended as a trick. I’m pretty sure almost everyone behind it was quite sincere that it would lead to whatever. It was vague all along, but everyone was truly excited back then. I even remember those times, but it didn’t lead to what we were promised at all.
And you see that when you compare science fiction over time. So I think the norm is that new technology comes and people are tricked. Again, it doesn’t have to be a sinister, devious, conspiracy laden thing, but in fact, they’re tricked. And then it happens anyway. And then we clean up the mess and deal with it and move on to the next set of problems.
And that’s what I think it will be with AI as well.
Murphy: What is the trick with AI?
Cowen: It’s the old paradox. When you add grains of sugar to your coffee. Every extra grain is fine, or it may even taste better, but at some point, you’ve just added too many grains. So that’s the way it is with change. People use ChatGPT. It diagnoses your dog. Do I need to take the dog to the vet? What’s with this rash?
You take the photo…You get a great answer. Everyone’s happy. They’re not actually going to be happy at all the changes that will bring. And here I’m talking about positive ones. I’m not saying, oh, it’s going to kill us all. People just don’t like change that much. So they’ll be sold on the immediate, concrete things and end up seeing things happen where they feel there’s too much change because it will devalue their human capital, and we’ll adjust and get over it and move on to the next set of tricks. That’s my forecast.
Murphy: People don’t like change, but also people are bad at long term planning. Yeah. You’ve spoken before about how faith is a key requirement in terms of being able to plan over the long term. How do you bring that idea to policymakers?
Cowen: I don’t know, I think things will get pushed through for myopic reasons, like we must outpace China, which might even be true, to be clear, but it’s a somewhat myopic reason, and that will be the selling point. You know, I’ve read a lot of texts from the early days of the Industrial Revolution. Adam Smith is one of them, but there’s many others, and a lot of people are for what’s going on, they understand they will be richer, maybe healthier.
They do see the downsides, but they have a pretty decent perspective. But no one from then understood. You’d have this second order fossil fuel revolution, say the 1880s where just things explode and the world is very much different. And whether they would have liked that, you can debate, but they just didn’t see it at all.
We’re probably in a somewhat analogous position. I would say that the Second Industrial Revolution was the more important one. It was a very good thing, even though climate change is a big problem, but it really built the modern world. And with something like AI or any advance, there’s probably some second order version of it that’s coming in our equivalent of 1880 that we just don’t see, and it will be wonderful for us.
But if you told us, we’d be terrified. So how should you feel about myopia? I think as an intellectual, you should be willing to talk about it openly and honestly. But at the end of the day, I think myopia still will rule. And I’m not in a big panic about that.
To recap:
We’ve just published the video on YouTube, X, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. We also published some extended show notes and the transcript on Substack.
The post The trajectories of science and AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Washington, D.C. has more single people per capita than almost any major American city, and yet the running complaint among those same single people is that they cannot find anyone worth seeing twice. That contradiction tells you something about the place. A city full of ambitious, educated, overworked professionals who are all technically available but functionally unreachable produces a dating environment that frustrates nearly everyone in it. The numbers say the options are there. The lived reality says otherwise, which is why conversations about dating in Washington, D.C. often sound more pessimistic than the statistics suggest.
About 69.3% of D.C. residents aged 20 and older are single, per U.S. Census data. Compare that to the national figure of 49.1%, and the city looks like it should be one of the easiest places in the country to meet someone. But a closer look at the same Census Bureau data shows a persistent imbalance: there are roughly 80 unmarried men for every 100 unmarried women in the city. That gap puts pressure on the dating pool in ways that raw totals never capture.
The Chamber of Commerce has ranked D.C. as the loneliest city in the country. Nearly 48.6% of its households consist of a single person living alone. A large unmarried population and a large lonely population existing in the same city at the same time is not a paradox. It is a predictable outcome when people are too busy, too burned out, or too guarded to form the connections they say they want.
Washington, D.C. has a dating pool where 69.3% of residents aged 20 and older are single, according to U.S. Census data, yet finding a compatible partner remains stubbornly hard. With careers consuming most of the energy people in their twenties and thirties have, many pursue connections that fit their actual lives rather than conventional expectations. Some look into sugar baby dating, others prefer casual arrangements, and plenty still aim for long-term commitment.
The point is that no single model of dating works for everyone in a city this career-driven. People make choices based on what they want and what they realistically have time for, and those choices vary widely from person to person.
Careers dominate the lives of D.C. residents in their 20s and 30s in a way that is hard to overstate. Long hours, demanding roles, and the social pressure to appear constantly productive push dating into whatever small windows remain at the end of the week. A Wednesday evening after a 12-hour day does not leave much room for genuine curiosity about another person.
As Washingtonian has reported, a dating coach in the area has had to tell clients to leave their “networking mindset at the office,” because people are “too focused on qualifying the buyer.” That phrasing is telling. When you treat a date the way you treat a professional contact, you are filtering for credentials, not chemistry.
The result is a lot of polite first dates that feel like interviews. People ask about job titles, alma maters, and five-year plans before they ask a single question that might reveal personality. That approach weeds out plenty of good matches for the wrong reasons.
A Forbes Health survey conducted with OnePoll found that 78% of dating app users report burnout. Among Millennials and Gen Z, that number rises to 79%. Dating in Washington, D.C. sits right at the center of this exhaustion.
WTOP reported that one D.C. matchmaker saw nearly four times the average number of clients under 30, with young professionals openly admitting they were already tired of the apps and burned out before they had even turned 28.
Washingtonian described dating apps as a “digital hellscape,” and a 2023 Pew report cited in the same article found 46% of respondents had somewhat negative online dating outcomes. The fatigue in D.C. is compounded by the fact that many people are swiping after long workdays when their patience and attention are already depleted. Conversations fizzle. Matches go unanswered. Plans get canceled.
Even when two people manage to find the time and energy to meet, D.C. makes them pay for it. A study by The Black Tux found D.C. is the sixth most expensive city for dating in the country. Dinner and drinks in most neighborhoods will run well above $100 for two people, and that adds up fast when you are going on multiple first dates a month trying to find someone compatible.
The expense discourages frequency. People become more selective about who they will spend money on, which in theory sounds reasonable but in practice means fewer chances to connect with someone who might surprise them.
Yes. The city has a large pool of single people, a gender ratio that works against women in particular, a culture of overwork that sidelines personal connection, widespread app burnout, and a high cost of going out. Each of these factors is manageable on its own. Stacked together, they make Washington, D.C. one of the harder American cities to date in, despite the fact that nearly seven out of ten adults in it are available.
The problem was never supply. The problem is that supply alone has never been enough.
Dating in Washington, D.C. highlights the difference between theoretical opportunity and real-world experience. On paper, the city appears ideal for singles, with a large population of educated and unattached professionals. In practice, the pace of work, the imbalance in the gender ratio, the fatigue created by dating apps, and the high cost of socializing combine to make genuine connection harder than statistics alone would suggest.
The result is a dating environment where availability does not automatically translate into compatibility or meaningful relationships. For many people navigating the D.C. dating scene, success often depends less on the size of the dating pool and more on patience, timing, and the ability to look beyond the city’s demanding professional culture in order to build authentic connections.
Photo: frimufilms via Freepik.
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The post Is It Difficult to Date in the Hustle and Bustle of Washington, D.C.? appeared first on DCReport.org.
On March 3, 2026, Earth lined up directly between the Moon and the Sun, casting its shadow on the full Moon. The total lunar eclipse was visible throughout the Americas, East Asia, Australia, and the Pacific. Skygazers in those parts of the world may have witnessed a “Blood Moon,” when the dimmed lunar surface temporarily turned an orange-red color.
Meanwhile, satellites observed the effect of the darkened Moon on Earth’s surface. Changes in the amount of moonlight reflected back to Earth as the eclipse progressed appear in this composite image, composed of nighttime observations made by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-21 satellite. The satellite collected these images of the Arctic about every 100 minutes, with earlier swaths toward the right and later swaths to the left.
The VIIRS day-night band detects nighttime light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses filtering techniques to observe signals such as city lights, reflected moonlight, and auroras. The darkest swath was acquired at 11:20 Universal Time (2:20 a.m. Alaska Standard Time), about 15 minutes after the total phase had begun. With very little moonlight reaching Earth, ribbons of light from the aurora borealis shine through, along with specks of artificial light from settlements in the Yukon and eastern Alaska.
When the satellite passed over western Alaska and the Bering Strait, at 13:00 Universal Time (4:00 a.m. Alaska Standard Time), the eclipse was in the partial phase. The scene is noticeably brighter than the earlier one, and light from the partially shaded Moon illuminates snow-covered topography and offshore clouds. The brightest swaths on the far right and left sides were acquired before and after the eclipse, respectively, with light from the full Moon.
The next chance to view a total lunar eclipse will occur on December 31, 2028, when it will add a dash of astronomical flair to New Year’s Eve celebrations in Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia, and the Pacific.
NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using VIIRS day-night band data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE, GIBS/Worldview, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Story by Lindsey Doermann.
Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

Astronauts and much of Earth’s population had a chance to view a coppery “Blood Moon” during a total lunar eclipse…

An astronaut photographed moonglint shimmering across the sea surface and the bright clusters of Florida’s cities at night.

The glow of city lights, the aurora, and a rising Moon illuminate the night along the northwest coast of North…
The post Shades of a Lunar Eclipse appeared first on NASA Science.
Two years after he founded his space company in the summer of 2004, Jeff Bezos penned a letter that greeted new employees with the message, "Welcome to Blue Origin!" A copy of this letter was subsequently given to new employees for nearly two decades.
At one point in the letter, Bezos questioned whether Blue Origin was a good investment.
"I accept that Blue Origin will not meet a reasonable investor's expectations for return on investment over a typical investing horizon," Bezos wrote. "It's important to the peace of mind of those at Blue to know I won't be surprised or disappointed when this prediction comes true. On the other hand, I do expect that over a very long-term horizon—perhaps even decades from now—Blue will be self-sustaining and operationally profitable, and will yield returns."
In November 2009, I did a blog post entitled “India as #1”
When Tyler Cowen asked me for my most absurd belief, one idea that I came up with was that India will have the world’s largest economy in the year 2109.
First let’s ask ourselves why most people would find this prediction a bit far-fetched. Most of us have never even visited India, but we have seen media images that often show a very crowded and underdeveloped country. It is very hard to imagine how India’s economy could ever surpass the US. More astute observers might notice that India does have nearly 4 times the US population, and it is not that hard to imagine that their per capita GDP might eventually reach 30% of US levels.
But the population advantage of India raises an even greater hurtle. Right now, China has a per capita GDP that is twice as high as India’s. Even worse, China is growing more rapidly. And China’s total population is larger than India’s. So how could India possibly overtake China within the next 100 years?
We are still a long way from the year 2109, but two of the three things I mentioned have already reversed. India now has a larger population than China, and India’s economy is now growing considerably faster than China’s economy.
And this is only the beginning. Since writing that post, China’s fertility rate has plunged far more dramatically than anticipated. While India’s current population is only few percentage points larger than China’s current population, Indian fertility is far higher. In 2025, China had 7.92 million births, whereas India had roughly 23 million. Those figures provide a hint as to the relative size of each country’s workforce in the second half of this century. The future of these two demographic giants will look vastly different than the present.
Less than a year after my 2009 forecast, I became even more optimistic about India:
So here’s the new prediction:
Year: 2081
Workforce ratio: China will have 60% of India’s workforce.
Productivity ratio: India will have 60% of China’s worker productivity.
GDP ratio: 1:1
Fortunately, I won’t be alive then to be mocked for my prediction. Poor Lester Thurow and Robert Fogel may not avoid that ignominious fate. Ultra-pessimistic Thurow says it will take China at least 100 years to catch up to the US in GDP (actually, they are just 5 to 7 years away in PPP terms.) And ultra-optimistic Fogel says China will have twice the EU’s per capita GDP by 2040. Twice!?!? Fogel’s a great economist, but I wouldn’t say that forecasting GDP is his strong suit.
I was right about China surpassing the US in total GDP in PPP terms, and I will very likely be right that China will not be twice as rich as Europe by 2040 in per capita terms. Perhaps it’s worth another post to consider why very smart people can make such seemingly implausible predictions. But then some would view my India #1 prediction as just as implausible, so who am I to complain?
In any case, it is now pretty clear than in 2081 China’s workforce won’t be anywhere near 60% of India’s workforce, perhaps only a third as large. India’s per capita GDP (PPP) is currently barely 40% of China’s, but India is growing considerably faster and will likely eventually reach 60% of China’s per capita income.
Intelligent people know just how hard it is to predict the distant future. Heck, even 5 years ago most of us failed to see that AI was about to become a big story, just as 7 years ago most of us failed to predict Covid. Even a month ago, I didn’t anticipate the Iran War (although I did frequently tell my readers that nationalism inevitably leads to militarism.)
Given the difficulty in predicting the future, we need to overweight surprising trends that we now know with almost 100% certainty. One of those trends is that in the year 2055, there will be roughly three times more 30-year-old Indians than 30-year-old Chinese. That’s because we now live in a world where relatively few people die young, and immigration/emigration trends simply don’t move the needle very much in countries with 1.4 billion people. Futurologist should begin their analysis with surprising trends that we already know will happen and work outward from those points.
PS. In 2011, I moved the crossing point up to the year 2060. As with my TDS, no matter how outrageous my predictions, I cannot keep up with reality.
PPS. And don’t say, “total GDP doesn’t matter”. Total GDP matters when considering size of an economy and per capita GDP matters when considering living standards. For instance, the huge size of China’s economy results in it having a disproportionate impact on global commodity markets. You might think it doesn’t matter that Germany’s GDP is larger than Belgium’s GDP, despite a lower GDP per capita. I do.

Yesterday UN Ambassador Mike Waltz announced that the US was moving ahead rapidly to achieve all its war objectives which he listed as 1) destroying Iran’s missiles, 2) eliminating its nuclear program and 3) ending its ability to do terrorism. So much for regime change, it seems and also unconditional surrender, both of which don’t seem remotely in the ballpark any time soon. That was the trial balloon. Then today President Trump followed up on this by declaring that the war is actually pretty much over already.
He told CBS News’s Weijia Jiang that “the war is very complete, pretty much” and that the US is “very far” ahead of the initial 4 to 5 week timeline. “The war is very complete,” he said in case there was any ambiguity about his words. Indeed, in his vaguely genocidal way Trump seemed to implicitly take regime change off the table by threatening either regime change or perhaps genocide if Iran got “cute.”
“They better not try anything cute,” he told Jiang, “or it’s going to be the end of that country.”
Again, where’s regime change? Where’s unconditional surrender? That’s old news, I guess. By this evening it might even be fake news.
What this all comes down to is that the White House is running as fast as it can from regime change and even faster from its demand for “unconditional surrender”. Trump wants to be done because the conflict is getting too messy, Gulf allies are certainly privately asking WTAF Trump’s plan is and more than anything else Trump is realizing that he is triggering what has been the most reliable presidency killer in American politics for more than half a century: spiking gas prices.
On gas prices, Trump is saying they’ll be back down very fast. But that’s not remotely how it works. Once gas prices really spike the half life of the price rise is really long. The oil and gas shock that came out of the Ukraine War wasn’t nearly as severe as many feared. But it still ran pretty much right through the end of Biden’s presidency.
Trump wants out now. Or at least he does today. Tomorrow may be another story.
This is week two of this year’s Annual TPM Membership Drive. We started to get traction at the end of last week. Today we really need to keep that going. If you’re not a member, please consider joining today. This is our lifeblood. It’s what we need to keep doing this work and, if possible, expand our reach going forward. If you’re a new reader or maybe your membership lapsed, we need you back. Just click right here. If you’re on the fence, we’re even offering a 25% discount.
This week I’m going to be telling you some of our plans for the coming year and how you and our growing community figure into those plans.

Sometimes I write a post where I don’t know the topic well enough to discuss it expertly but I understand it enough to point to the outlines of the debate and where to find more information. This is one of those posts. Here, I want to discuss drones and missiles deployed by Iran and the expensive, high-tech weapons the U.S. and its allies use to shoot them down. This applies right now in the Persian Gulf where Iran is using a strategy of “asymmetric attrition.” But it would apply in even more complicated and hard-to-address ways if and when the U.S. got into a major conflict with, say, China over Taiwan. It’s that basic challenge of asymmetric warfare for a Great Power like the United States: the U.S. relies on often quite effective but very expensive and hard to replace weaponry. Iran’s clunky but effective drones cost in the low five-figures to produce, while U.S. missile defense tech can costs millions for a single shot.
As this article in SpyTalk explains, Iran’s missile capacity, which provided a key part of its deterrence, has largely come up empty in this conflict. That was even more the case last year when Israel shattered Iran’s air defenses and bombed the country almost at will, while Iran was barely able to damage Israel. A mix of U.S. and Israeli made defensive weaponry were able to drastically limit Iran’s ability to strike Israel. Head to head, these anti-missile and anti-drone systems and munitions are stunningly effective.
But there’s another layer of the story. Iran can produce its signature Shahed-136 drones rapidly and seemingly without limit, or at least it could pre-war. Those cost about $20,000 a piece. The Patriot and SM-6 interceptors the U.S. and its Gulf allies often need to use to intercept them cost in the millions. (Here’s a Times piece on this price asymmetry.) Cost is one thing. Presumably, when it’s important, the U.S. can spend a lot. We’re rich and usually vastly richer and with a bigger tax base than almost any country we go to war with. But it’s not just cost. These high-tech weapons take time to make and they rely on rare earth metals and other scarce supplies that the U.S, doesn’t entirely control. This is a question I want to learn more about. But I’m routinely surprised at how quickly the U.S. appears to run low on these kinds of munitions whether it’s in direct combat with Iran or as a supplier to countries like Ukraine.
“Run low” can obviously mean a lot of things. The U.S. has moved on from its longtime “two war doctrine,” being capable of winning two major regional conflicts simultaneously. But “low” probably seldom means you’re out. It means you’re getting low when you take into account levels needed to fight various potential conflicts the Pentagon wants to be ready for at all times. Of course the Pentagon is going to be vague about anything like this because just how much reserves it has is a pretty critical state secret. You want to keep potential adversaries guessing. But it doesn’t seem like it’s just shortages in the supplies that aren’t needed for other contingencies. The U.S. military seems to run into supply constraints pretty quickly. More important, the U.S. doesn’t seem to have the industrial capacity to produce these weapons as quickly as they’re likely to be expended in a drawn out major power conflict.
That issue of speed of replenishment is critical, in a way more critical than the size of the stockpiles. If we got into a major conflict with China over Taiwan and it went on for a long time, the U.S. doesn’t appear to have an industrial capacity to resupply these weapons on an ongoing basis. An additional factor is that all these high-tech weapons require rare earth metals for their production, a critical resource that China dominates globally. In a wartime situation, the U.S. would likely claim all the rare earth materials being used for civilian purposes in supply chains it controls. And maybe that would be enough. But it’s a real vulnerability, and it puts time limits on the U.S.’s military dominance. You can have military dominance. But if a critical part of that dominance only last weeks or months, that’s a problem. For now, it seems clear to experts that Iran’s strategy is to absorb the punishment from the skies and keep sending waves of drones into neighboring counties until the U.S. stockpiles are run dry.
Here’s a (likely paywalled) article in Foreign Policy which looks how many munitions, drones and interceptors each side is using, the cost and how simple or hard they are to replenish in real time.
Needless to say, Pentagon planners have given these matters a lot of thought. I’m not saying anything that people who work in these areas don’t know. But it’s a basic question that looms over any conflict like this and whether a lower tech, perhaps less wealthy adversary could grind the U.S. down in a battle of attrition we’re not — in industrial terms — prepared for.
Production query plans without production data
Radim Marek describes the newpg_restore_relation_stats() and pg_restore_attribute_stats() functions that were introduced in PostgreSQL 18 in September 2025.
The PostgreSQL query planner makes use of internal statistics to help it decide how to best execute a query. These statistics often differ between production data and development environments, which means the query plans used in production may not be replicable in development.
PostgreSQL's new features now let you copy those statistics down to your development environment, allowing you to simulate the plans for production workloads without needing to copy in all of that data first.
I found this illustrative example useful:
SELECT pg_restore_attribute_stats(
'schemaname', 'public',
'relname', 'test_orders',
'attname', 'status',
'inherited', false::boolean,
'null_frac', 0.0::real,
'avg_width', 9::integer,
'n_distinct', 5::real,
'most_common_vals', '{delivered,shipped,cancelled,pending,returned}'::text,
'most_common_freqs', '{0.95,0.015,0.015,0.015,0.005}'::real[]
);
This simulates statistics for a status column that is 95% delivered. Based on these statistics PostgreSQL can decide to use an index for status = 'shipped' but to instead perform a full table scan for status = 'delivered'.
These statistics are pretty small. Radim says:
Statistics dumps are tiny. A database with hundreds of tables and thousands of columns produces a statistics dump under 1MB. The production data might be hundreds of GB. The statistics that describe it fit in a text file.
I posted on the SQLite user forum asking if SQLite could offer a similar feature and D. Richard Hipp promptly replied that it has one already:
All of the data statistics used by the query planner in SQLite are available in the sqlite_stat1 table (or also in the sqlite_stat4 table if you happen to have compiled with SQLITE_ENABLE_STAT4). That table is writable. You can inject whatever alternative statistics you like.
This approach to controlling the query planner is mentioned in the documentation: https://sqlite.org/optoverview.html#manual_control_of_query_plans_using_sqlite_stat_tables.
See also https://sqlite.org/lang_analyze.html#fixed_results_of_analyze.
The ".fullschema" command in the CLI outputs both the schema and the content of the sqlite_statN tables, exactly for the reasons outlined above - so that we can reproduce query problems for testing without have to load multi-terabyte database files.
Via Lobste.rs
Tags: databases, postgresql, sql, sqlite, d-richard-hipp
A recurring concern I've seen regarding LLMs for programming is that they will push our technology choices towards the tools that are best represented in their training data, making it harder for new, better tools to break through the noise.
This was certainly the case a couple of years ago, when asking models for help with Python or JavaScript appeared to give much better results than questions about less widely used languages.
With the latest models running in good coding agent harnesses I'm not sure this continues to hold up.
I'm seeing excellent results with my brand new tools where I start by prompting "use uvx showboat --help / rodney --help / chartroom --help to learn about these tools" - the context length of these new models is long enough that they can consume quite a lot of documentation before they start working on a problem.
Drop a coding agent into any existing codebase that uses libraries and tools that are too private or too new to feature in the training data and my experience is that it works just fine - the agent will consult enough of the existing examples to understand patterns, then iterate and test its own output to fill in the gaps.
This is a surprising result. I thought coding agents would prove to be the ultimate embodiment of the Choose Boring Technology approach, but in practice they don't seem to be affecting my technology choices in that way at all.
Update: A few follow-on thoughts:
Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, boring-technology, coding-agents, agentic-engineering, november-2025-inflection
I can’t remember where I got them, but some years ago, I got two well-used albums of poster stamps. This is what Perplexity AI says about them:
Poster stamps are small, gummed advertising labels, slightly larger than postage stamps, popular from the late 19th century through the 1920s, often featuring miniature poster art for products, events, or causes.
They peaked in the 1910s “Golden Era,” with a craze among collectors who pasted them into special albums or scrapbooks, much like postage stamps. Production continued into the 1920s and 1930s, but interest waned after World War I, though they remained affordable souvenirs for children and adults.
People got them free from companies, contests, or events and mounted them in dedicated albums. Today, they’re valued by philatelists as ‘cinderella stamps’—non-postal labels—often found in vintage scrapbooks at auctions or online.
The Poster Stamp Collectors Club is a good source of information. They write:
Poster Stamps can be classified by their purpose into categories:
As promotion for an event- such as a concert, exposition, or exhibit, or
As commercial advertising- for a product or service or tourist location, or
As political or social propaganda- for a movement or a political candidate, or
As promotion of charitable giving to a particular need or non-profit group, or
As a souvenir to be saved, commemorating something: that is, a poster stamp that is propaganda, but is “preaching to the choir”.
Poster Stamps proved to be a powerful medium in the early 1900’s, and almost immediately both children and adults began saving them. But the peak of popularity was long ago, thus many stamp collectors have not seen Poster Stamps and are surprised by their beauty and appeal.
Just a brief note, because yesterday was a travel day and I didn’t even try to draft a full post — which was just as well, because oil markets went wild while I was airborne.
In a way that was odd, because the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war on Iran began, with no obvious way to get it reopened quickly. As I showed in yesterday’s primer, continued closure of the Strait is a shock to world oil supplies bigger than the oil shocks of the 1970s. What changed?
Well, on Friday Trump called for UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER, suggesting both intransigence and a tenuous grip on reality. Then the Iranians chose Khamenei’s son, reputedly a hard-liner, as the new Supreme Leader. These developments may have dashed the hopes of oil traders who still thought we might have cosplay regime change, Venezuela-style: The regime basically continues, but a new leader makes conciliatory noises and throws a bunch of money Trump’s way. That could still happen, but not for a while.
Time matters here. As the Strait remains closed, producers are shutting down, and this isn’t like turning off a tap that can be quickly restarted. There’s apparently a real nonlinearity here: a 2-week closure of the Strait has much more than twice the adverse impact on global oil supply as a 1-week closure. If this goes on for multiple weeks — and it’s easy to imagine that happening — oil prices, which retreated slightly off their highs early this morning, could go much higher.
Even so, premature to predict a global economic crisis. Prices now are roughly at Russia shock levels:
That shock was ugly but didn’t cause recessions in either the US or Europe. As I emphasized in the primer, advanced economies are much less vulnerable to oil shocks than they were in the 1970s.
But the situation is scary. And what’s even scarier is that the “warrior ethos” gang in the Trump administration seem to have been caught completely off-guard by the fallout from their adventure, even though the military and the intelligence community tried to warn them about the risks.
MUSICAL CODA
Up betimes, to my office, where all the morning. About noon Sir J. Robinson, Lord Mayor, desiring way through the garden from the Tower, called in at the office and there invited me (and Sir W. Pen, who happened to be in the way) to dinner, which we did; and there had a great Lent dinner of fish, little flesh. And thence he and I in his coach, against my will (for I am resolved to shun too great fellowship with him) to White Hall, but came too late, the Duke having been with our fellow officers before we came, for which I was sorry. Thence he and I to walk one turn in the Park, and so home by coach, and I to my office, where late, and so home to supper and bed.
There dined with us to-day Mr. Slingsby, of the Mint, who showed us all the new pieces both gold and silver (examples of them all), that are made for the King, by Blondeau’s way; and compared them with those made for Oliver. The pictures of the latter made by Symons, and of the King by one Rotyr, a German, I think, that dined with us also. He extolls those of Rotyr’s above the others; and, indeed, I think they are the better, because the sweeter of the two; but, upon my word, those of the Protector are more like in my mind, than the King’s, but both very well worth seeing. The crowns of Cromwell are now sold, it seems, for 25s. and 30s. apiece.
Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump was among the dignitaries who attended the dignified transfer returning the remains of the six U.S. soldiers killed in the military action against Iran to the United States for burial. At the transfer, Trump wore a white USA baseball cap for sale in his campaign store.
Recognizing that Americans would recoil from seeing Trump wear a baseball cap at a dignified transfer, the Fox News Channel declined to show how he had looked yesterday and aired old footage of Trump from his first term without the hat. Caught in their lie, the Fox News Channel admitted they had shown the wrong footage but claimed it was inadvertent. They did not, however, show the real footage from yesterday, showing Trump wearing his merch.
The producers at the Fox News Channel seemed to recognize that Trump’s USA hat at a dignified transfer looked like deliberate disrespect for those whose lives had been taken in the service of our country. They seemed to understand the gulf between the administration’s cartoonish approach to the war in Iran and the reality of war for those participating in it.
The official social media account of the White House has portrayed its military adventures in Iran as a movie, or a game, splicing images from what appear to be footage of U.S. military strikes with clips from adventure movies and video games like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto. Undeterred by criticism, White House communications director Steven Cheung called for supporters to show their enthusiasm for one of the videos in comments below it.
Last Thursday, March 5, Trump talked to ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl about the war. “I hope you are impressed,” he said. “How do you like the performance? I mean, Venezuela is obvious. This might be even better. How do you like the performance?” Karl answered that “nobody questions the success of the military operation, the concern is what happens next.”
“Forget about next,” Trump answered. “They are decimated for a 10-year period before they could build it back.”
“We’re marching through the world,” Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) told a laughing Maria Bartiromo of the Fox News Channel this morning. “We’re cleaning out the bad guys. We’re gonna have relationships with new people that will make us prosperous and safe. I have never seen anybody like it. This is Ronald Reagan Plus. Donald Trump is resetting the world in a way nobody could have dreamed of a year ago. He is the greatest commander in chief of all time. Our military is the best of all time. Iran is going down, and Cuba is next.”
The administration’s approach to foreign affairs appears to be the logical outcome of two generations of a peculiar U.S. cowboy individualism. Since the 1950s, right-wing ideologues in the United States have embraced a fantasy world in which a hero cuts through the red tape of laws and government bureaucracy to do what he thinks is right. That image was fed by TV westerns that rose after the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision to portray a world in which dominant white men delivered justice to their communities without the interference of government. By 1959, there were twenty-six westerns on TV. In one week in March 1959, eight of the top ten TV shows were westerns.
The idea of white men acting for freedom and justice on their own, unhampered by a government that served Black Americans, people of color, and women, became a guiding image for the rising right wing beginning with Arizona senator Barry Goldwater in 1964. It found a home in the Republican Party with Ronald Reagan in 1980, as supporters took a stand against a federal government they insisted was redistributing the tax dollars of hardworking Americans to undeserving minorities and women.
That cowboy individualism spread into foreign affairs as well, until by 2003, right-wing talk radio host Rush Limbaugh could use it as shorthand to defend President George W. Bush’s military operation in Iraq. Just after the 2003 capture of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Limbaugh gushed about presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, who had ignored the rules imposed by “liberals” and fixed what was wrong with the world. Limbaugh explained that Reagan was a cowboy: “He was brave, positive, and gave us hope. He wore a white hat…. Liberals hated Ronald Reagan.”
Limbaugh continued: “They also hate President Bush because he distinguishes between good and evil. He calls a spade a spade, and after 9-11 called evil ‘evil,’ without mincing any words, to the shock of the liberal establishment. That’s what cowboys do, you know…. In the old West, might did not make right. Right made might. Cowboys in white hats were always on the side of right, and that was their might. I am glad my President is a cowboy. He got his man! Cowboys do, you know.”
In Breaking the News today, James Fallows wrote that that way back in 2015, he concluded that “it had become far too easy for political leaders to strut and posture about ‘honoring the troops’—the Hegseth term ‘warfighters’ was not yet in common use—but then to commit them in half-thought-through “forever” wars, since so much of the public was so insulated from the consequences.”
But if Trump’s Iran adventure began with the strutting and posturing of a military performance, it is running hard into reality. It appears that Trump saw the strikes themselves as the culmination of his performance and did not have a plan for what would happen after them. He has said he was surprised that the conflict has included neighboring states.
Now the ships that carry about 20% of the world’s oil are not traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices are surging. Rising oil prices are already hitting Americans at the gas pump—gasoline prices rose 14% last week—and will also hit the economy in general as jet fuel and diesel for trucks and tractors become more expensive. Trump tonight posted that high oil prices are “a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY.”
The public support for the financing of this war is different from that of past adventures. While President George W. Bush could borrow to pay the cost of Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003, 2026 is a different story. The national debt has ballooned in the two decades since the Iraq war, and Republicans last summer justified their dramatic cuts to government programs, including healthcare and supplemental nutrition assistance, by insisting that it must be addressed. Now Trump is spending an estimated $1 billion a day on Operation Epic Fury, highlighting that while there was no money for programs that helped the American people, there appears to be plenty for a war of choice in the Middle East.
Since the 1980s, Republican presidents have been able to sell their military adventures with the argument that, like cowboys, they were cutting through bureaucracy and laws in order to do what was right. As Limbaugh described it, they were never looking for trouble, but when trouble came they faced it with courage. They were always on the side of right, defending good people against bad people. They had high morals and spoke the truth. They were “a beacon of integrity in the wild, wild West.”
The fantasy of those who embraced cowboy individualism was that if only they could have full sway, they would solve the world’s problems and keep Americans safe. But the conduct of the war is starting to illustrate that any claims of a moral code disappear when a leader exercises military might on a whim. According to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the U.S. will not be bound by any “stupid rules of engagement” and will rain down “[d]eath and destruction from the sky all day long. This was never meant to be a fair fight,” he said, “and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them when they’re down, which is exactly how it should be.”
On Wednesday, March 4, a U.S. submarine torpedoed an Iranian warship in international waters. The vessel was not participating in hostilities; it was off Sri Lanka returning from a naval exercise organized by India in the Bay of Bengal. In the past, the U.S. has participated in those exercises.
Andrew Roth, Cate Brown, and Hannah Ellis-Peterson of The Guardian noted that submarine attacks since World War II have been incredibly rare, as are attacks on vessels not taking part in hostilities. The ship was believed to have 180 people on board; Sri Lankan officials said they rescued 32 and recovered 87 bodies from the water. Hegseth boasted: “An American submarine sank an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters.”
On Thursday, Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali of Reuters reported that the U.S. appears to bear responsibility for the February 28 strike on a girls’ school in Minab, in southern Iran, in the early waves of the Israeli-U.S. attack. The strike appears to have killed 168 people or more, many of them children. Since the Reuters report, others have noted that the U.S. was operating in the area and Israel was not. The strike remains under investigation.
After Saturday’s dignified transfer, Trump told reporters on Air Force One. “I hate to do it, but it’s a part of war,” he said. “It’s a sad part of war.”
“It’s the bad part of war.”
—
Notes:
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5773009-jake-tapper-donald-trump-iran-war-rhetoric/
“Westerns,” Time, March 30, 1959, p. 52.
Rush Limbaugh, “This Cowboy,” RushOnline.com.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-iran-war-bombing-girls-school-assessment/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/08/pete-hegseth-pentagon-trump-iran
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-iran-war-us-israel-attack-11606079
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/business/gasoline-prices.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/03/07/trump-dover-dignified-transfer-soldiers-iran/
Bluesky:
ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3mgkkvbwmg22i
atrupar.com/post/3mgkp7zvukc2g
mattgertz.bsky.social/post/3mgiukafxzc2x
atrupar.com/post/3mgkljfxigl2r
After twenty years of devops, most software engineers still treat observability like a fire alarm — something you check when things are already on fire.
Not a feedback loop you use to validate every change after shipping. Not the essential, irreplaceable source of truth on product quality and user experience.
This is not primarily a culture problem, or even a tooling problem. It’s a data problem. The dominant model for telemetry collection stores each type of signal in a different “pillar”, which rips the fabric of relationships apart — irreparably.
The three pillars model works fine for infrastructure1, but it is catastrophic for software engineering use cases, and will not serve for agentic validation.
But why? It’s a flywheel of compounding factors, not just one thing, but the biggest one by far is this:
Your data does not become linearly more powerful as you widen the dataset, it becomes exponentially more powerful. Or if you really want to get technical, it becomes combinatorially more powerful as you add more context.
I made a little Netlify app here where you can enter how many attributes you store per log or trace, to see how powerful your dataset is.
4 fields? 6 pairwise combos, 15 possible combinations.
8 fields? 28 pairwise combos, 255 possible combinations.
50 fields? 1.2K pairwise combos, 1.1 quadrillion (2^250) possible combinations, as seen in the screenshot below.
When you add another attribute to your structured log events, it doesn’t just give you “one more thing to query”. It gives you new combinations with every other field that already exists.

Note that this math is exclusively concerned with attribute keys. Once you account for values, the precision of your tooling goes higher still, especially if you handle high cardinality data.
“Data is made valuable by context” is another way of saying that the relationships between attributes are the most important part of any data set.
This should be intuitively obvious to anyone who uses data. How valuable is the string “Mike Smith”, or “21 years old”? Stripped of context, they hold no value.
By spinning your telemetry out into siloes based on signal type, the three pillars model ends up destroying the most valuable part of your data: its relational seams.
I posted something on LinkedIn yesterday, and got a pile of interesting comments. One came from Kyle Forster, founder of an AI-SRE startup called RunWhen, who linked to an article he wrote called “Do Humans Still Read Logs?”
In his article, he noted that <30% of their AI SRE tools were to “traditional observability data”, i.e. metrics, logs and traces. Instead, they used the instrumentation generated by other AI tools to wrap calls and queries. His takeaway:
Good AI reasoning turns out to require far less observability data than most of us thought when it has other options.
My takeaway is slightly different. After all, the agent still needed instrumentation and telemetry in order to evaluate what was happening. That’s still observability, right?
But as Kyle tells it, the agents went searching for a richer signal than the three pillars were giving them. They went back to the source to get the raw, pre-digested telemetry with all its connective tissue intact. That’s how important it was to them.
Huh.
I’ve been hearing a lot of “AI solves this”, and “now that we have MCPs, AI can do joins seamlessly across the three pillars”, and “this is a solved problem”.
Mmm. Joins across data siloes can be better than nothing, yes. But they don’t restore the relational seams. They don’t get you back to the mathy good place where every additional attribute makes every other attribute exponentially more valuable. At agentic speed, that reconstruction becomes a bottleneck and a failure surface.
Our entire industry is trying to collectively work out the future of agentic development right now. The hardest and most interesting problems (I think) are around validation. How do we validate a change rate that is 10x, 100x, 1000x greater than before?
I don’t have all the answers, but I do know this: agents are going to need production observability with speed, flexibility, TONS of context, and some kind of ontological grounding via semantic conventions.
In short: agents are going to need precision tools. And context (and cardinality) are what feed precision.
Production is a noisy, rowdy place of chaos, particularly at scale. If you are trying to do anomaly detection with no a priori knowledge of what to look for, the anomaly has to be fairly large to be detected. (Or else you’re detecting hundreds of “anomalies” all the time.)
But if you do have some knowledge of intent, along with precision tooling, these anomalies can be tracked and validated even when they are exquisitely minute. Like even just a trickle of requests2 out of tens of millions per second.
Let’s say you work for a global credit card provider. You’re rolling out a code change to partner payments, which are “only” tens of thousands of requests per second — a fraction of your total request volume of tens of millions of req/sec, but an important one.
This is a scary change, no matter how many tests you ran in staging. To test this safely in production, you decide to start by rolling the new build out to a small group of employee test users, and oh, what the hell — you make another feature flag that lets any user opt in, and flip it on for your own account.
You wait a few days. You use your card a few times. It works (thank god).
On Monday morning you pull up your observability data and select all requests containing the new
build_idor commit hash, as well as all of the feature flags involved. You break down by endpoint, then start looking at latency, errors, and distribution of request codes for these requests, comparing them to the baseline.Hm — something doesn’t seem quite right. Your test requests aren’t timing out, but they are taking longer to complete than the baseline set. Not for all requests, but for some.
Further exploration lets you isolate the affected requests to a set with a particular query hash. Oops.. how’d that n+1 query slip in undetected??
You quickly submit a fix, ship a new build_id, and roll your change out to a larger group: this time, it’s going out to 1% of all users in a particular region.
The anomalous requests may have been only a few dozen per day, spread across many hours, in a system that served literally billions of requests in that time.

Precision tooling makes them findable. Imprecise tooling makes them unfindable.
How do you expect your agents to validate each change, if the consequences of each change cannot be found?3
Well, one might ask, how have we managed so far? The answer is: by using human intuition to bridge the gaps. This will not work for agents. Our wisdom must be encoded into the system, or it does not exist. As @odysseusz0z said recently: “The work is making your judgment machine-readable.”
In the past, excruciatingly precise staged rollouts like these have been mostly the province of your Googles and Facebooks. Progressive deployments have historically required a lot of tooling and engineering resources.
Agentic workflows are going to make these automated validation techniques much easier and more widely used; at the exact same time, agents developing to spec are going to require a dramatically higher degree of precision and automated validation in production.
It is not just the width of your data that matters when it comes to getting great results from AI. There’s a lot more involved in optimizing data for reasoning, attribution, or anomaly detection. But capturing and preserving relationships is at the heart of all of it.
In this situation, as in so many others, AI is both the sickness and the cure4. Better get used to it.
Infrastructure teams use the three pillars for one extremely good reason: they have to operate a lot of code they did not write and can not change. They have to slurp up whatever metrics or logs the components emit and store them somewhere.
Yes, there are some complications here that I am glossing past, ones that start with ‘s’ and rhyme with “ampling”. However, the rich data + sampling approach to the cost-usability balance is generally satisfied by dropping the least valuable data. The three pillars approach to the cost-usability problem is generally satisfied by dropping the MOST valuable data: cardinality and context.
The needle-in-a-haystack is one visceral illustration of the value of rich context and precision tooling, but there are many others. Another example: wouldn’t it be nice if your agentic task force could check up on any diffs that involve cache key or schema changes, say, once a day for the next 6-12 months? These changes famously take a long time to manifest, by which time everyone has forgotten that they happened.
One sentence I have gotten a ton of mileage out of lately: “AI, much like alcohol, is both the cause of and solution to all of life’s problems.”

Update March 10, 1:21 a.m. EDT (0531 UTC): SpaceX confirms deployment of the EchoStar-25 satellite.
A direct television satellite for Dish Network, a subsidiary of EchoStar, headed into geostationary Earth orbit on Monday night aboard a Falcon 9 rocket launched from Cape Canaveral.
The satellite, EchoStar 25, flew to a geosynchronous transfer orbit before maneuvering to its operation position at 110 degrees West above the equator.
Liftoff of the 70-meter-tall launch vehicle from Space Launch Complex 40 happened at 12:19 a.m. EDT (0419 UTC). The rocket flew due east upon leaving Florida’s Space Coast.
The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 90 percent chance for favorable weather during the launch window, citing a small chance for interference from cumulus clouds.
SpaceX launched the mission with Falcon 9 first stage B1085. This was its 14th flight after previously flying missions, including NASA’s Crew-9, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost Mission 1, and Fram2.
A little more than 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1085 landed on the drone ship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas,’ positioned in the Atlantic Ocean. This was the 146th touchdown on this vessel and the 583rd booster landing to date for SpaceX.
The EchoStar 25 satellite deployed from the second stage of the Falcon 9 rocket nearly 33 minutes after liftoff.

On March 20, 2023, EchoStar entered into a contract with Lanteris Space LLC (formerly Maxar Space Systems, now a subsidiary of Intuitive Machines) to build the EchoStar 25 satellite. A launch contract with SpaceX was established in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The satellite is built on Lanteris’ 1300 Series satellite bus, the basis for spacecraft, like NASA’s Psyche probe and Sirius XM’s SXM-10. Dish will use it as a direct broadcast satellite.
EchoStar-25 will operate in the 12.2-12.7 GHz for space-to-Earth communications and 17.3-17.8 GHz for Earth-to-space, according to a filing with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).
This will be the most recent EchoStar satellite to be operated by its subsidiary, Dish, since EchoStar 23, which launched in March 2017. In May 2025, the company ordered the construction of EchoStar-26 from Lanteris, which is expected to launch in 2028.
Deployment of @EchoStar XXV confirmed pic.twitter.com/VrYd2QtjxT
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) March 10, 2026
In September 2025, EchoStar announced it was selling spectrum licenses to SpaceX that it had planned to use for its own direct to mobile service. The $17 billion sale, split evenly between cash and SpaceX stock is awaiting regulatory approval.
“We are disappointed that we were not able to continue with something we built over 17 years,” EchoStar’s CEO Charles Ergen said. “I think that we are also pleased that we have made our bet, and that is with SpaceX and Starlink
The sale will help advance SpaceX’s Direct to Cell Starlink service, recently rebranded to Starlink Mobile.
“We see them as the most viable company to do that, and with their tremendous technology and launch capabilities, they are well-positioned to certainly be a leader in that. And as we publicly discussed, we already have an agreement with them to provide that to our customers,” Ergen said.
Juli Clover, MacRumors:
Featuring bubble-style lines with colorful gradients, the wallpapers come in Mac Purple, Mac Blue, Mac Pink, and Mac Yellow. The design and the colors spell out the word “Mac.”
They got me. I’m upgrading to Tahoe now.
Links for you. Science:
Why Some People Thrive on Four Hours of Sleep
Maryland faces another spate of viral infections. This time it’s mumps.
A familiar move with a new twist: Trump tries to cut CDC funds he just signed into law
Troubleshooting common errors in assemblies of long-read metagenomes
Scientists Found a Massive Lava Tube Hiding Beneath the Surface of Venus
One vaccine may provide broad protection against many respiratory infections and allergens (very good summary of the approach)
Other:
The record-breaking cocaine boom — and its deadly fallout
Some local police, sheriff and DA offices are communicating often with ICE, records show
ICE agents often ignore safety and privacy practices for detainee patients, Tacoma nurses say
Alaska lawmaker’s chief of staff arrested on sex trafficking and child exploitation charges
Trump Betrayed the MAHA Movement This Week. RFK Jr.’s Reaction Was Telling.
How Epstein and Maxwell used an elite Midwest arts school to prey on girls
MAGA’s weird, horny obsession with Alysa Liu. The far-right can only see a young woman as “goonbait” (they’re such losers)
Interview with Andrea Pitzer about concentration camps
Yeah, so… Substack, I’m out. The Polymarket partnership is the last straw.
I DON’T BELONG TO AN ORGANIZED RESISTANCE — I’M A DEMOCRAT
U.K.-based Caffè Nero wins auction to buy Compass Coffee
Judge forced to slash SF jury pool over hate for Elon Musk
Army warrant officers will ‘bid’ against each other for their next bonus (utterly fucked up policy)
Pennsylvania high school students violently attacked by police during anti-ICE walkout
‘Andor’ Creator Tony Gilroy Gives the Interview He Couldn’t During Its Release. While promoting his cautionary tale about fascism, Disney asked Gilroy to refrain from using the word. Nine months after it aired its finale, the ‘Star Wars’ series feels scarily prescient.
MAGA Senator Appears Not to Have Read the SAVE Act
I Verified My LinkedIn Identity. Here’s What I Actually Handed Over.
Wikipedia blacklists Archive.today, starts removing 695,000 archive links
The Unstoppable Alysa Liu: Watching a young woman be free was the joy I didn’t know I needed
MAGA’s Reaction to the Epstein Files Reveals Total Moral Collapse
Majority of Americans think Trump’s deportation campaign is going too far
Trump’s Attack on the Supreme Court Was Unhinged Even for Him
You Might Be Seeing A MAHA-Coded Doctor And Not Even Know It
On a new banner, Trump evokes the shadow world of authoritarian icons
The Primary Win That Stunned Democrats Everywhere
NFL Pro Bowler Tre’ Johnson, dead at 54, found a new calling as a teacher. He was a bruising offensive lineman, playing in Washington for eight seasons, before becoming a teacher and coach at the Landon School in Maryland.
What’s Next for US Healthcare? Ask Oklahoma.
There’s A Very Freaky Explanation For ICE’s Uncomfortable Interactions With Women
My child’s circus school is bracing for ICE. This is the toll of authoritarianism.
People Who Left ‘MAGA Christianity’ Share What It Really Took To Step Away
The Marek Janowski box of Bruckner symphonies I find to be the best Bruckner overall. And yes I do know many other versions, even Hermann Abendroth, though I cannot hold a candle to one MR reader I met recently who may know seventy or more versions of Bruckner’s 8th.
Vladimir Jurowski has recorded Maher 1, 2, 4, 8, and with 9 on the way and I read somewhere he will be doing the entire cycle. I expect these will end up as my set of choice.
Both are worthy of your notice, and they put to rest the myth that all the best conductors and orchestras operated in the now somewhat distant past.
On a related note, I flew to Pittsburgh recently to hear Honeck conduct Bruckner’s 8th (it is there I met the MR reader). I was amazed how good the overall performance was, and arguably Pittsburgh is now one of the two or three best orchestras in this country, at least for their favored repertoire. Go hear them if you can, Bruckner being their specialty.
The post Recent recordings of “big symphonies” appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Paul Ford posted about a timeline site he’s started making after years of pondering the idea and tinkering with it.
I don’t know Paul but over the years I’ve got the sense we are similar in a few ways. And this only reinforces that sense because I also spent years pondering a website for making timelines. Maybe plenty of us have.
In fact one of the very first websites I started when I first got online in 1995 was a site collecting the dates of events in the development of “all this digital stuff,” as I came across them. It didn’t get very far.
But I think my more recent pondering started just over ten years later when I did some work for the BBC on a project called Eyewitness, creating a prototype website on which people would be able to contribute memories of a specific day. This sounds a little reckless for an organisation as cautious as the BBC is these days but back then, in the midst of Web 2.0, no project brainstorm was complete without a post-it with “UGC” scrawled on it (user-generated content).
The prototype site also included a load of events that I scraped from BBC News and Wikipedia, and I’d also spent some time looking at what was then available in terms of making and displaying timelines.
The project didn’t go any further but I kept thinking about a website for creating timelines. It was the kind of project that I’d think about while trying to get to sleep at night: how it could work, what the problems might be, etc. I envisaged a site on which people could create and share events and timelines, and combine them to create new ones, displaying them in a variety of formats
I didn’t get as far into the details as Paul has but even the easiest-to-identify problems were interesting.
How should it deal with events where we don’t know the exact date? I’ve always liked the way Flickr deals with ambiguity when recording dates but how should such vagueness be displayed on a graphical timeline?
How should it deal with the adoption of different calendering systems at different points in history? What does a timeline look like if it has days added or subtracted from the usual progression at odd points?
How should it deal with different timescales? You could have one timeline that requires sub-second accuracy and another based on millions of years.
One thing I really wanted to solve was how to deal with different zoom levels. Imagine a timeline of World War II, and you begin by looking at the whole thing from 1939 to 1945. Whatever the display looks like graphically there would only be space to see the most important events.
But you should be able to zoom in, and in, and in, until (assuming enough events have been added) you’re looking at minute-by-minute details of a single day.
Think of it like zooming into a map – if you’re zoomed way out you’ll only see the land/sea, the boundaries of countries, maybe capital cities. As you zoom in you’ll see gradually more features: towns, roads, built-up areas, individual buildings, bus stops… This suggested that every event should have a measure of importance, so we could tell at which zoom level it should be displayed.
So all I would need to do would be to rate every event in history with a number indicating its objective importance.
You can see why I never got round to making anything.
But I was still intrigued, and thought someone must have looked into this kind of thing: a numerical rating of the importance of events. Say from a rating of 1 for the beating of a butterfly’s wing up to 100 for the birth and death of the universe, and everything in between.
Ludicrous but interesting. Who could even judge? From who’s (or what’s) perspective would importance be measured?
As a side project, I then thought about a newspaper whose hierarchy of daily stories would be based solely on this measure of global (universal?) importance.
Obviously, none of this happened. At some point I realised I’d stopped thinking about the idea without having made anything. It all seemed a bit complicated and I didn’t really want to run a site that involved lots of data entry/updating on my part, or with lots of users. Making websites is interesting but running them is often less so.
Anyway, one difference between me and Paul is that he actually made something with this idea.
1. What people get wrong about women’s rights (Alice Evans, The Economist).
2. The case against liberal interventionism.
3. More government by GPT (NYT).
4. “In 2013, museum management considered introducing a scheme to suction dust off tourists as they walked down the corridor leading to the Sistine Chapel while blasting them with cold air to reduce their body temperature and perspiration. The plan was aborted, presumably for logistical reasons.” (FT)
5. The ongoing migration of Kiwis.
6. Roger Garrison, RIP. And an obituary.
The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Atlanta has experienced a massive surge in population over the last decade as people move for jobs and culture. This growth brings vibrant energy and new economic opportunities to the metropolitan area every single day. Residents appreciate the urban diversity.
However, rapid expansion also creates challenges for local governments trying to maintain a secure environment for all citizens. People are becoming much more selective about where they choose to purchase homes and raise their young families. Security is a primary concern.
Finding a place that offers peace of mind requires a deep dive into the specific trends of each district. You must look at the data to identify the safest neighborhoods Atlanta has to offer today. Choosing the right area ensures your future stability.
Public safety experts rely on comprehensive data sets to understand the patterns of criminal activity across the different zones of the city. These statistics are gathered by local law enforcement and shared through public databases for transparency. Accuracy in reporting is essential for any clear analysis.
Analysts look at both property crimes and violent incidents to create a balanced view of the risks in each specific zip code. A high rate of theft might be a concern, but it differs significantly from the impact of personal harm. Distinguishing these types of data is vital.
Ranking systems help potential residents compare different areas based on the frequency of these events over a set period. This objective look at the numbers removes the guesswork from the decision making process. Data provides the foundation for a very secure and informed home search.
The safety of a residential area is often determined by the level of connection and communication between the people who live there. Active neighborhood watch programs create a visible deterrent for anyone looking to engage in illegal activity during the day. Neighbors look out for each other.
Local organizations and homeowner associations also play a major role by hosting meetings and sharing updates about the safety of the streets. This collective vigilance creates a strong social bond that discourages crime and improves the quality of life. Community engagement is a very powerful tool.
When people feel connected to their surroundings, they are much more likely to report suspicious behavior to the authorities immediately. This proactive culture builds a sense of psychological safety that is just as important as the actual crime rates. Shared responsibility makes every street much safer for everyone.
Physical environment and urban design have a direct impact on the frequency of accidents and criminal behavior in a growing metropolitan area. Well maintained streets and clear sidewalks encourage people to walk and engage with their neighborhood during the evening hours. Modern infrastructure supports a much healthier and more secure lifestyle.
Public lighting is one of the most effective ways to deter crime and improve visibility for drivers and pedestrians alike. Brightly lit pathways reduce the number of dark corners where illicit activities might occur without being noticed by the neighbors. Lighting is a simple but essential part of urban safety planning.
Cities that invest in these basic services often see a decrease in both crime and traffic related incidents over the long term. Clean and bright spaces signal to the public that the area is being cared for and monitored by the local government. Good design is a foundation for safety.
The speed at which emergency responders can arrive at a scene is a major factor in the overall safety rating of a community. Neighborhoods located near fire stations and police precincts often enjoy faster response times during a crisis or a medical emergency. This proximity provides a significant layer of security for families.
Insurance companies also look at the distance to these services when calculating the risk and the cost of a policy for a home. Areas with better access to public safety resources are viewed as more stable and less vulnerable to catastrophic losses. This factor impacts your financial and personal well being.
Living near a hospital or a local precinct ensures that help is always just a few minutes away when it is needed most. This physical presence of authority and medical care discourages crime and provides peace of mind for everyone. Access to services is a key indicator of a safe district.
Finding the right home requires a balance between the aesthetic appeal of a house and the security of the surrounding environment. Using public data and community reports helps you narrow down your search to the areas that best fit your specific needs. Research is the most important part of the process.
Visiting a neighborhood at different times of the day and night allows you to see the traffic patterns and the lighting firsthand. Speaking with current residents provides a human perspective on the safety and the culture of the streets. Taking these extra steps ensures you are making a very wise choice.
Ultimately, the goal is to find a sanctuary where your family can grow and thrive with total confidence and peace of mind. Following the data will lead you to the safest neighborhoods Atlanta offers today. Making an informed decision is the best way to protect your long term happiness and security.
Photo: DC Studio via their website.
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The post Evaluating Local Community Trends For The Safest Neighborhoods Atlanta appeared first on DCReport.org.
The jury system plays a fundamental role in maintaining a fair and balanced judiciary for every citizen in the community today. It ensures that legal disputes and criminal trials are decided by a group of peers rather than a single government official or judge. This shared responsibility is a cornerstone of the democratic process and the protection of individual rights.
While the duty is important, most people recognize that the timing of a summons is not always ideal for every busy individual. A sudden call to serve can clash with major life events or critical work projects that require your immediate and undivided attention. It is a common source of stress for those trying to balance their daily lives with their civic obligations.
Understanding the difference between a permanent excusal and a temporary deferral is the first step toward managing your summons effectively and professionally. Most courts are willing to work with citizens to find a date that does not cause an undue burden on their household or career. Many people look for information on how to get out of jury duty before they realize that a simple postponement is often the best solution.
Presenting evidence that jury service would cause a significant monetary loss is a valid path for seeking a financial hardship excusal. For many self employed individuals or small business owners, missing a week of work can lead to a total loss of income for the month. Courts generally understand that the small daily stipend provided for service cannot replace a professional salary.
Documenting this hardship requires a clear and honest explanation of your financial situation and the specific impact of your absence from the job. You may be asked to provide tax returns or a letter from your employer stating that they do not offer paid leave for court service. This transparency helps the jury commissioner make an informed and fair decision about your ability to serve.
If the court finds that your service would lead to a financial disaster, they may grant an excusal to protect your long term stability. It is important to remember that this process is designed to ensure that the jury pool is made up of people who can focus on the case. Protecting your livelihood is a priority for both you and the judicial system.
The process for providing healthcare verification is essential for those who have physical or mental constraints that prevent them from serving. Chronic pain or a serious illness can make sitting in a courtroom for several hours a day a very difficult and painful task. The law provides specific protections for individuals who are not physically able to perform the required duties.
A signed letter from a licensed physician is usually required to document the specific nature of the medical issue and its expected duration. This information is kept confidential and is only used to determine if the person should be excused from the current jury pool. Accuracy in these medical reports ensures that the court respects the health and the safety of all.
Mental health considerations like severe anxiety or cognitive impairments are also taken seriously by the court when evaluating an excusal request. Providing a professional perspective allows the judge to understand why a specific environment might be harmful or impossible for the individual to navigate. Health is a fundamental factor in the ability to serve effectively as a juror.
Options for students and essential workers to reschedule their service dates are often available to ensure that critical duties are not ignored. A college student who is summoned during a final exam period can usually request a deferral to a time when school is not in session. This flexibility allows for the completion of important educational milestones without any legal stress.
Essential workers like doctors or active duty military members may also face significant professional conflicts that require their immediate presence elsewhere in the community. These individuals can provide documentation of their schedule and their unique role to justify a temporary postponement of their service. The goal is to minimize the disruption to vital public services while still fulfilling the civic duty.
Most courts allow for a one time deferral to a specific date that is more convenient for the individual and their employer or school. This cooperative approach helps to maintain a high level of participation without causing unnecessary harm to the person’s professional growth or academic success. Planning ahead is the key to a smooth and professional interaction with the court.
Summary of the proper channels for communicating with the jury commissioner emphasizes the importance of following the established rules for the local area. Ignoring a summons is never a valid strategy and can lead to significant legal trouble including fines and a potential warrant for your arrest. Communication is the only way to resolve a conflict safely.
Most summons include a specific deadline for requesting a postponement or an excusal that must be followed exactly by the citizen. You should use the official website or the provided form to state your reasons clearly and attach any required documentation for the file. Staying proactive ensures that your request is processed before the first day of the scheduled trial.
Final thoughts on jury duty focus on the need for a respectful and a professional approach to this fundamental civic obligation for everyone. By understanding the rules and being honest about your situation, you can navigate the process with confidence and peace of mind. Compliance with the law is the foundation of a stable and a healthy community for all.
Photo: Freepik via their website.
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The post Valid Reasons for Postponing or Rescheduling Court Duty appeared first on DCReport.org.
Iran was once one of the key oil suppliers to the world. No longer. Its exports, constrained by sanctions, amount to less than 2 per cent of global supplies, most of which go to China at discounted prices.
A similar change has taken place in Venezuela. Once a star of world oil and one of the founding members of Opec, today it can hardly even be called a petrostate. It produces less oil than the US state of North Dakota and a quarter as much as neighbouring Brazil.
Here is more from Daniel Yergin at the FT.
The post Iran/Venezuela facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Voyager Technologies is investing in Max Space to help accelerate a partnership between the two companies on developing lunar habitats.
The post Voyager Technologies invests in Max Space appeared first on SpaceNews.

SpaceX is pushing back the first launch of the latest version of Starship even as NASA is asking it to accelerate work on a lunar lander version of the vehicle.
The post First Starship V3 launch slips appeared first on SpaceNews.

A senior Chinese space scientist and delegate to the country’s national congress is proposing the prioritization of an unprecedented orbiter mission to ice giant Neptune.
The post Chinese official calls for prioritizing Neptune orbiter mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Modern society has become profoundly reliant on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). These systems support aviation safety, emergency services, finance, communications, energy networks and an expanding array of autonomous and industrial systems. Yet despite this reliance, GNSS remains inherently fragile: low‑power signals transmitted from medium Earth orbit are surprisingly easy to degrade, and the consequences […]
The post GNSS resilience is an economic and security priority appeared first on SpaceNews.
Here are recent reports on kidney exchange from India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Germany.
Atul Agnihotri: SOMETHING REMARKABLE IS HAPPENING IN KIDNEY TRANSPLANTATION IN INDIA.
"Through collaboration with 63 transplant centers, APKD India enabled 130 kidney swap transplants in 2025, quietly becoming ONE OF THE LARGEST KIDNEY SWAP PROGRAMS outside the U.S.
And the momentum continues — January has already kicked off with 22 swap transplants.
A powerful reminder that when hospitals collaborate, more patients receive the gift of life.
"One Nation, One Swap."
https://lnkd.in/gZD6Q-md "
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Here's an article on the clinical trials of kidney exchange in Brazil, in preparation for a possible change in the transplant law to make it standard practice.
Doação Renal Pareada (DRP) no Brasil: relato do primeiro caso envolvendo três duplas Kidney Paired Donation (KPD) in Brazil: first 3-way case report by Juliana Bastos, Glaucio Silva de Souza, Marcio Luiz de Sousa, Pedro Bastos Guimarães de
Almeida, Thais Freesz, David Jose de Barros
Machado, Elias David-Neto, Gustavo Fernandes Ferreira https://doi.org/10.1590/2175-8239-JBN-2025-0177pt
Abstract: Kidney Paired Donation (KPD) is a transformative strategy in living kidney donor transplantation (LDKT), particularly for overcoming immunological barriers that preclude direct donation. In 2021, KPD accounted for one-fifth of adult LDKT and for half of LDKT for sensitized recipients in the United States. In Brazil, with a high prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and over 30,000 patients on transplant waiting lists, the demand for compatible donors far exceeds supply. This article presents a case report of KPD in the Brazilian context, illustrating its feasibility and highlighting challenges and considerations for broader implementation. The case demonstrates KPD’s potential to increase transplant rates, improve outcomes, and reduce dialysis costs. Nevertheless, structural, ethical, and regulatory challenges remain. This report emphasizes the implications of expanding KPD as a sustainable, life-saving strategy in Brazil.
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Here's a report from King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia:
Almeshari, K.A., Broering, D.C., Obeid, D.A., Alali, A.N., Algharabli, A.N., Pana, N.L. and ALI, T.Z., Innovative Strategies in Kidney Paired Donation: Single-Center Experience Achieving the Highest Annual Transplant Volume Globally. Frontiers in Immunology, 17, p.1623684.
"Methods: We analyzed all kidney transplants performed through our KPD program between January and December 2024. The program aimed to achieve full HLA and ABO compatibility for incompatible pairs, while also incorporating additional strategies: inclusion of compatible pairs to improve HLA matching, acceptance of ABO quasi-compatible matches (e.g., A2 donors to O or B recipients), low-risk HLA-incompatible matching for HLA-incompatible candidates with cPRA >80%, and ABO-incompatible matching for those with cPRA >95%.
Results: A total of 135 patients (121 adults, 14 pediatrics) underwent KPD-facilitated transplantation, including 69 HLA-incompatible (51.1%), 37 ABO-incompatible (27.4%), and 29 compatible (21.5%) pairs. Females comprised 60.7% of the cohort, with a significantly higher proportion in the HLA-incompatible group (p < 0.001). HLA-incompatible recipients were older than others (mean age 42.5 years, p < 0.001). Most transplants (93.3%) occurred through 2- to 5-way closed chains, with the remainder via domino chains (6.7%).
...
Conclusion: Our single-center experience demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of a high-volume KPD program in overcoming immunologic barriers to kidney transplantation. Strategic inclusion of compatible pairs, ABO quasi-compatible matching, low-risk HLA-incompatible, and ABO-incompatible matchings significantly increased access for difficult-to-match recipients. This model may serve as a replicable framework for other high-capacity transplant centers seeking to expand transplant access and improve outcomes for complex patient populations. "
########
And here's a report on proposed German legislation to (finally) make kidney exchange legal in Germany:
Biró, P., Budde, K., Burnapp, L., Cseh, Á., Kurschat, C., Manlove, D., & Ockenfels, A. (2026). Germany's Path to a National Kidney Exchange Program: An Assessment of the 2024 Legislative Proposal. Health Policy, 166, 105578.
"Highlights
The German Federal Parliament plans to amend the Transplantation Act (1997).
•
The main goal of the reform is to establish a national kidney exchange program.
•
The draft law follows European best practices in many respects.
•
However, the law prohibits the participation of compatible donor–recipient pairs, contrary to international evidence.
•
Germany may join cross-border kidney exchange programs in the future. "

This hand-painted stop motion animation recalls the textures of a family home demolished to make way for a widened road
- by Aeon Video

Is mathematical beauty real? Or is it just a subjective, human ‘wow’ that is becoming redundant in an AI age?
- by Rita Ahmadi
Given the rapid pace of advancement of AI, how should academic journals adapt to these changes? One issue might be an excess of submissions, but what other questions should be considered here? Which reforms should be made?
Your thoughts would be most welcome.
The post Academic journals and AI bleg appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Here is the NYT obituary.
The post Country Joe McDonald, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

A new view on the heart of our Milky Way is presented in today's Picture of the Week. This stunning snapshot, taken with ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT), reveals the stars and gas surrounding an invisible giant — a supermassive black hole, located some 27 000 light-years away. This is a hugely dynamic environment, with stars and gas clouds hurtling by the black hole at dramatic speeds.
A team of astronomers at the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Germany has detected a new gas cloud, named G2t, orbiting the supermassive black hole. Two gas clouds, G1 and G2, were already known, but their nature and origin were still being debated. In particular, it was unclear whether these clouds were hiding a star inside or consisted purely of gas. However, the discovery of a third gas cloud now helps answer these questions.
The observations were done with the Enhanced Resolution Imager and Spectrograph (ERIS), an instrument on ESO’s VLT that can not only take images like the one in this Picture of the Week, but also spectra. Thanks to this, astronomers were able to measure the 3D orbits of the clouds around the black hole. The clouds move within a very small region at the centre of this wide-field image. It was revealed that G1, G2 and G2t are actually on almost identical orbits, only rotated a bit with respect to each other. This rules out the possibility that each cloud hides a star in their core, as the odds of different stars having almost identical orbits are slim. The similarity of the orbits suggests that the three clouds probably share the same origin, most likely IRS16SW, a pair of massive stars expelling an enormous amount of gas. As IRS16SW moves around the black hole, each cloud of gas is ejected in a slightly different orbit, explaining the small differences in the trajectories of the ‘G-triplet’.
This discovery shows that, despite decades of monitoring our Milky Way centre, new unanswered curiosities still arise. But what could be more exciting than mysteries waiting to be solved?
Just inland from the Pacific coast of El Salvador, the striking blue waters of Lake Coatepeque fill part of a caldera of the same name. An astronaut aboard the International Space Station took this photo of the lake and surrounding terrain on February 10, 2026, as the station passed over Central America.
The caldera formed during a series of explosive eruptions between 72,000 and 51,000 years ago. After the caldera’s formation, additional eruptions produced several lava domes along its western side, including one that became Isla del Cerro (Isla Teopán). According to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program, there have been no reported eruptions from the caldera during the Holocene (the past 11,700 years).
Today, homes, restaurants, boathouses, and other structures line the lakeshore. This human footprint extends westward toward the caldera’s steep rim, which abuts the eastern flank of Santa Ana—El Salvador’s tallest volcano. Unlike Coatepeque, Santa Ana remains active, with small to moderate explosive eruptions recorded since the 16th century. Its most recent severe eruption occurred in 2005.
Although the lake appears its usual blue in this photo, it can occasionally take on a strikingly different hue. At times, the water temporarily shifts to bright turquoise, prompting questions about its cause. In 2024, scientists reported that while pigments from microalgae and cyanobacteria can affect the lake’s color, the turquoise episodes are likely the result of natural mineralization.
The broader landscape around the lake and Santa Ana Volcano is a mosaic of urban areas, agricultural fields, and even more volcanic terrain. The city of Santa Ana lies about 15 kilometers (9 miles) to the north, while San Salvador, also nestled amid volcanoes, lies 40 kilometers (25 miles) to the east. The volcanic landscape stretches more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) along Central America’s Pacific coast, from Guatemala to Panama, composing the Central American Volcanic Arc.
Astronaut photograph ISS074-E-312810 was acquired on February 10, 2026, with a Nikon Z9 digital camera using a focal length of 400 millimeters. It was provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA Johnson Space Center. The images were taken by a member of the Expedition 74 crew. The images have been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. Story by Kathryn Hansen.
Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

The glow of city lights, the aurora, and a rising Moon illuminate the night along the northwest coast of North…

The Large Magellanic Cloud—one of our closest neighboring galaxies—is a hotbed of star formation that is visible to both astronauts…

Rounding out a remarkable year, the outback lake displayed distinct green and reddish water in its two main bays.
The post Lake Coatepeque appeared first on NASA Science.
Frank McLynn, Villa and Zapata: A History of the Mexican Revolution. The best book on its topic, and one of the best books on Mexican history flat out. Everything is explained with remarkable clarity. By the way, the central government never really has controlled the entire country, or not for very long anyway.
Sean Mathews, The New Byzantines: The Rise of Greece and Return of the Near East. Anexcellent and original book, somewhere between a history and travel book. Views Greece as part of “the Middle East.” I found every page interesting.
Robert Polito, After the Flood: Inside Bob Dylan’s Memory Palace. An informationally dense, rambling, and frequently insightful and obsessive book about the “late” career period of Bob Dylan. When does his “late” period start? 1990 perhaps? I remember thinking in 1990 that we were well into Dylan’s late career phase. But that was thirty-six years ago!
Muriel Spark, The Driver’s Seat. If you like her at all, you will be entranced by this one. With a radical ending, as you might expect.
Richard Holmes, The Boundless Deep: Young Tennyson, Science, and the Crisis in Belief. A fun new book on Tennyson’s relations with the science of his time, and how he drifted away from religious belief.
Partha Dasgupta, On Natural Capital: The Value of the World Around Us, is a popular summary of some of his thinking on valuing the environment and natural resources.
Davd Epstein, Inside the Box: How Constraints Make Us Better. A good popular look at what the subtitle promises.
José Donoso, The Boom in Spanish American Literature: A Personal History is a good lshort overview, noting that Donoso’s own The Obscene Bird of Night is one of the great underrated works of 20th century literature.
The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
DCReport Readers, I want to strongly encourage you to look at the front page of The New York Times for Sunday, March 8, 2026. There are six stories, any one of which I would have been proud to author, and all of which upend any claim that The Times is no longer worth your time.
The great Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Charlie Savage leads the page with a news analysis headlined “Trump Tramples a Line, Worn Faint, on War. He describes how, since the Cold War began, the Constitutional principle that only Congress can declare war has been progressively eroded.
As commander-in-chief, the President only has inherent authority to defend against a current or imminent attack. Trump’s war on Iran finishes wiping out that bedrock Constitutional standard, while the leadership on Capitol Hill, where Republicans control both chambers, does nothing.
Immediately below that piece, but still above the fold, is a Kenneth P. Vogel piece headlined “Pardon Industry Offers the Rich A Path to Trump.”
Vogel, a dogged investigative reporter, devotes an entire inside page to showing how Donald Trump is selling clemency and pardons to the rich. If that sounds like an impeachable offense, it is. Among those pardoned are some of the world’s biggest cocaine traffickers, child sexual abusers, and white-collar criminals who will now get to keep their ill-gotten billions with no restitution to their victims.
This was an exceptionally difficult story to ferret out because public records are scant, and conspirators in these pardons-and-clemency-for-sale schemes aren’t eager to implicate themselves or Trump.
It’s also criminal in my view, as someone who both knows Trump and has taught law for the last 17 years, although I’m not a lawyer.
Taking money to let people out of prison or wipe their slates clean, even when it’s done through intermediaries or ancillary characters, is a crime, not an “official act.” That distinction matters because of a cockamamie 2023 Supreme Court decision that former presidents may not be prosecuted for any “official act” performed while in office.
Issuing clemency and pardons is an official act. Taking money isn’t, even if the money goes to confederates.
Also above the fold: “Colleges Respond to Upswing in Disability Diagnoses,” in which reporters Mark Arsenault and Steven Rich dive into the reasons for the last decade’s 50% jump in the number of students receiving special treatment for diagnosed disabilities. They found that some of these reflect refined techniques to identify disabilities and related physical and intellectual limitations. However, some of it reflects students gaming the system for a range of accommodations, such as extra time to complete quizzes, midterms, and finals.
Right at the fold, a four-column headline suggests a threatening scenario: “Torrent of Money Transforms A Slice of Wyoming” This story documents America’s billionaire boom and how wealth is increasingly concentrated at the very top, a story I started making a kitchen-table topic in 1995 when I became a reporter for The Times, and I continued to pursue it for the next 13 years.
Back then, a small army of critics blamed me for, in their view, abusing income statistics to fabricate an issue. Those critics were never able to point to any conceptual or factual error, but that didn’t stop their attacks until the Obama era, when widening income inequality became so obvious that denial no longer resonated with anyone except cranks and the willfully blind.
Times reporters Katie Benner, Steven Rich, Mike Baker, and John Branch did a fabulous job of updating the economic data to show that the top 1 in 1,000 families is experiencing skyrocketing wealth, while the bottom half of Americans have merely doubled their minuscule wealth in the last 35 years.
The sixth story is about retirees who chose to stay in Gotham rather than go to Florida. As Kiplinger’s, the personal finance magazine, pointed out years ago, if you have your housing costs solved (own, rent-controlled, or rent-stabilized), then the big city is one of the cheapest and most culturally enriching places in America for those with a modest income. No surprise, but a sound reminder.
It’s easy to fault The New York Times. Indeed, few people are more critical of the paper than those who work in its newsrooms.
That’s because newsrooms operate on principles different from any other commercial enterprise. There’s an old journalistic saying that “a healthy newsroom is a newsroom with lots of bitching” about what is and is not in the daily report, as the mix of news stories is known among reporters and editors.
Newspapers make mistakes just like every other institution. But they are virtually unique in owning up to those mistakes and ensuring the public is aware of them.
There’s another old saying in newsrooms: “Doctors bury their mistakes, lawyers see theirs off to jail, only reporters sign theirs on the front page for everyone to read.”
I once spent money on researchers to find out who originated that phrase. The oldest verifiable use was under my byline. But I did not originate it. If you know who did, please write to us via the DCReport Tipline.
Few institutions in America have the resources, the talent, and the institutional imperatives to stand fast against Trump. For a long time, The Washington Post stood for our Constitution and the liberties of the people. But then its billionaire owner, Jeff Bezos, decided his fortune mattered more than America’s future as a democracy of free peoples.
Now and then, Rupert Murdoch’s The Wall Street Journal breaks a big story that infuriates Trump. But Donald can rely on the WSJ opinion pages to, for the most part, give cover for his anti-democratic moves. The American edition of The Guardian, a British newspaper, is solid, as are many independent news websites.
If you want to live free. If you want your progeny and the progeny of others to enjoy our liberties, then one key thing you can do is start every morning by reading The New York Times.
That doesn’t mean you should concur with or believe everything you read. Read the first rough draft of history with a grain of salt, as I do. Recognize that some reporters are great and many are merely good, and that, overall, the news is a highly accurate recounting of the official version of events and the official criticisms of those events.
Or be cynical. Close your eyes. Donald Trump will exploit your ignorance, but he’ll never thank you.
“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.
The post Trump and The New York Times appeared first on DCReport.org.
Naipanoi Lepapa, Ahmed Abdigadir, and Julia Lindblom, reporting for the Swedish publications Svenska Dagbladet and Göteborgs-Posten:
It is stuffy at the top of the hotel in Nairobi, Kenya. The grey sky presses the heat against the windows. The man in front of us is nervous. If his employer finds out that he is here, he could lose everything. He is one of the people few even realise exist — a flesh-and-blood worker in the engine room of the data industry. What he has to say is explosive.
“In some videos you can see someone going to the toilet, or getting undressed. I don’t think they know, because if they knew they wouldn’t be recording.” [...]
The workers describe videos where people’s bank cards are visible by mistake, and people watching porn while wearing the glasses. Clips that could trigger “enormous scandals” if they were leaked.
“There are also sex scenes filmed with the smart glasses — someone is wearing them having sex. That is why this is so extremely sensitive. There are cameras everywhere in our office, and you are not allowed to bring your own phones or any device that can record”, an employee says.
Delightful. And what a brand move for Ray-Ban and Oakley.