Goodbye Victoria

Among our grandad’s papers was his memoir of his childhood in Ipswich, Suffolk. It had been typed up, double-spaced, with a preface and postscript by his son, our dad, John Gyford.

I’ve added a few extra paragraph breaks and also included many related period photos. Most of these are from the collection of David Kindred on Flickr with kind permission. The dates of many are unknown but hopefully they aren’t too far from being contemporary with these memories.


§ Goodbye Victoria:
An Edwardian Childhood in Ipswich

by Criss Barrington Gyford


§ Preface

My father recorded his childhood memories on two tapes during 1982. Before recording them he prepared himself a series of notes and scripts from which to talk. This document represents a transcript of the first tape supplemented by the scripts for the second tape. The latter, although recorded and heard thereafter by myself, has since disappeared but my recollection of its contents matches those of the script, which has survived.

John Gyford


§ These are the memories of Criss Barrington Gyford, born at 7.30 on the evening of December 7th 1901 at 90 Fore Street, Ipswich, Suffolk.

A photo of a bit of a photo album, black card with an embossed frame, and a square cut-out at the centre. Through the cut-out we see a sepia-toned photo of the head and shoulders of a young boy, possibly early teenage, facing the camera, in front of a brick wall. He's wearing a dark suit jacket, a dark shirt, with a prominent white colloar overlapping both the jacket and a bow tie. He's wearing a hat, that looks soft with a narrow brim. He's just about smiling.
Criss Barrington Gyford as a boy.

My father had the same name as myself, Criss Barrington, and he married Bessie Florence Potter on the 13th of February 1899 at St. Matthew’s Church in Ipswich. He was then a soldier in the Suffolk Regiment and before the end of the year was in South Africa for the Boer War. He was wounded in one of the skirmishes out there and returned to this country in 1900 and was discharged from the Army as unfit for further service and in 1901 I was born. That was the year in which Queen Victoria died and if I were to write my autobiography I think I should call it Goodbye Victoria because I seem to have been brought up in quite a Victorian atmosphere. My parents, my uncles and aunts and grandparents were all real Victorians and the few years of King Edward’s reign didn’t seem to alter that: nothing altered I think until the end of the 1914-18 war.

My father was the son of Charles Gyford, who as a young man was a blacksmith in the village of Bedfield in Suffolk, but who later came to Ipswich to work in Ransome’s foundries.

A photo of a vast warehouse type room filled with many rows of workbenches. There are many men and boys at work on bits of metal. They're all wearing flat caps and either jackets or waistcoats.
Ransomes factory, 1916. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

He married Maria Stevens and they produced a family of twenty-three children of which my father was the youngest. The twenty-second child had died before my father was born and it used to be a family joke that my grandmother had twenty-two children twice. Many of the children died in childhood and my father used to say that some of his brothers he never even met or knew – they moved out of Ipswich and he never got to meet them. The only names I can recall are Albert, Edgar, David, Arthur, Samuel and two sisters, Laura and another sister who lived in Harwich but whose name I cannot recall. Five of his brothers actually served together in the Boer War. My father was very proud of his Army service and he did very well for the few years that he was in the Army, playing cricket and football for the Suffolk Regiment. He was stationed at Bury St. Edmunds and on some occasions turned out for Bury St. Edmunds football team.

My mother was the daughter of Thomas and Mary Potter. Tom Potter was for some time a blacksmith also at Ransome’s foundries but later became a market gardener on the Felixstowe Road. Her mother had kept a corner shop on what later became known as Potter Street in the St. Clement’s area of Ipswich but most of my mother’s time was spent on the market garden in Felixstowe Road until she married my father. She was one of a family of eleven, so really I had quite a number of uncles, aunts and cousins but most of the Gyford people seem to have moved out of Ipswich although practically all the Potter people remained in the area so I had plenty of relations to whom I could have turned but somehow it didn’t turn out that way. The names of the Potter family are contained in the family Bible which is now in John’s possession. Strangely enough my mother, after her marriage, didn’t seem to be particularly friendly with her own family. She was on quite good terms with her sisters Ruth, Anna and Eda but for the rest of the family she seemed to have no time. I never really understood what it was all about but the result was that I didn’t enjoy the company of cousins as much as you would expect me to have done.

A photo of a very old building with 'Ye Olde Neptune Inn' painted on the front. It has leaded windows, a tall brick chimney. Two small boys and a man stand on the pavement in front.
The Old Neptune Inn on Fore Street, a couple of doors along from Gyford’s shop. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Number 90 was built in the early 1500s, about the same time as the Neptune Inn. It was timber framed, almost certainly oak, with exterior and interior walls of lathes and plaster with pargetting designs of trefoil and open rose. Actually the Sorrel Horse inn on the opposite side of Fore Street dates from 1490 and so the house might have been built before 1500.

A photo of an old building that looks like a house with a small courtyard in front.
The Sorrell Horse, Fore Street. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Whilst Dad was serving in South Africa, Mother had converted the front room of number 90 into a greengrocer’s shop, based on her market gardening experiences I expect, and as soon as Dad was physically fit they began to build up the business. Two or three years later they bought the next door house, number 92 and doubled the shop area and made the backrooms of 92 into a large store room.

A photo of a street of old houses. The first floors mostly jut out slightly over the ground floors. Some have dormer windows in the roofs. The building closest on the left is numbers 90-92 and its sign reads 'Fruiterer. C. B. Gyford. Greengrocer. There are no vehicles but tram tracks are just visible on the road surface.
Fore Street around 1910, with C. B. Gyford’s shop on the left. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

A new doorway upstairs gave us a very large room always known as the ‘best room’. The ceiling was a very well carved plaster one and very ornate. There was a large three oil-lamp chandelier in the centre, which you pulled down for lighting and was then pushed up and kept in place by counter weights: there were also two bracket oil-lamps, one each side of fireplace. A large bow window overlooking Fore Street was a favourite vantage point for me. From this window I saw the laying down of the original tramlines and the putting up of overhead electric wires and the first electric trams to replace the horse-drawn ones. Also I could watch the lamp lighter with his long hooked pole and lighted taper as he lit the gas lamps – I could see twenty-one lamps from that window.

One lamp-post became known to the family as Bessie’s lamp-post because my sister when suddenly turning back to come home from school struck her face on the metal post and burst her eyebrow open and had to have it stitched up at the doctor’s to which she was taken by taxi summoned by phone. Number 90 had the phone connected in its early days – the telephone number was 612 and there was a white metal sign outside the shop with a blue bell design on it and the words ‘you may telephone from here’, the only such sign in the area. All the same, Mother was not at all keen on using the phone – “too much electricity is not good”, she said.

A photo of a wide junction in a town. The impressive stone buildings are three stories tall. Many have arched windows, pillars, and balconies. There is a double-decker tram and the only other vehicle is a two-wheel cart pulled by one horse. There are a few dozen people in dark clothes, mostly men.
A tram on The Cornhill, 1906 or 1907. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The tramcars came along Fore Street when I was about three years old. The double lines outside number 90 meant that any cart delivering goods had to move over to allow the trams to pass and this used to cause a lot of trouble with the drivers especially if the tramcar driver kept clanging his bell. Where a single line existed then the conductor used his stick to change the lights from green to red to indicate that his car was coming onto the single line. The trams were open-topped with leather aprons for the seats for the passengers in wet weather. They were double-ended trams so there was no need to turn around. There were horse-drawn cabs on the Cornhill in what we call now taxi lines, taxis – motor-car taxis – appearing in about 1909. There was a cabmens’ shelter on the Cornhill for the drivers’ rest and refreshment. This site was later occupied by the Boer War memorial, which was later put in Christchurch Park and re-dedicated by the Prince of Wales after the 1914-18 War.

A shelter on The Cornhill around 1894, before electric trams replaced horse-drawn trams in 1903. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

A regular thing at the private houses that still existed in Fore Street was the cleaning of doorsteps every morning with a scaling stone and a whitener. There was also the sharpening of carving knives on the doorstep for carving the meat joints. Sunday meals were taken to bakers’ ovens for a few pence. In those days I would be sent for a half-shoulder of lamb, knuckle-end, which would cost two shillings and threepence. There would be children in the shop buying four penny worth of scraps for the poor homes in Waterworks Street and places like that. Sugar was threepence a pound, you could buy double weight margarine for sixpence a pound; double weight meant that if you asked for a pound for your sixpence you would get two pounds. My mother always gave us suet pudding or batter pudding for the first dinner course unless the main course was meat pudding or steak and kidney or rabbit pie. Rabbits cost eightpence or ninepence each skinned, the skins fetching threepence or fourpence.

A photo of one side of a street of old two and three storey buildings. The closest is H. Wells, a 'pork butcher' with a huge queue of people leading from the open door away down the street.
H. Wells butcher, Fore Street. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

One of the earliest things I recall is wearing a white furry coat and a matching beret hat and having my father’s South African Boer War Queen’s Medal pinned on my coat and being carried on my dad’s shoulder on his way home from the Cornhill where he had been presented with the medal by Lord Kitchener who had come down to Ipswich for that special purpose to present medals to the Suffolk Regiment. But I particularly remember looking down the steps to a fruit shop in Westgate Street: evidently the road had been built up, but the shop itself was well below street level probably because the ceiling of the shop was not raisable. To me it always seemed peculiar that a shop should be down steps instead of up.

The back doors of number 90 Fore Street opened onto a driftway which led down to the docks and as a little boy I spent a lot of time playing down there on the barges. The chief cargo was grain for the maltings and lucca beans which were processed into cattle food.

A photo of two men on an old barge, either side of a large wooden ship's wheel. They're both wearing flat caps, jackets and trousers, and each has a cigarette in his mouth. On the dockside behind them are carts and men.
A pair of barge hands in the 1920s at Neptune Key, roughly behind the location of the Gyford shop.(Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Opposite number 90 there were two maltings, one kept by Mr. Meakins, another by Mr. Chinnery. These maltsters lived in a company house and had to attend to the large semi-underground maltings in their backyards. Meakin’s house had been once occupied by Captain Eldred, the round-the-world voyager, and his alleged captain’s cap is now in the Christchurch Mansion museum. Chinnery’s yard also had stables for the horses that pulled the grain carts that took the malted substance to breweries. It was chiefly Cobbold’s brewery of course and in those days boys with pails and shovels followed the horses to collect the manure, most of the children being barefoot. It was a regular thing in those days to see the women going to Sneezums the pawnbroker on Saturday mornings to get out their husband’s and children’s Sunday clothes and then they would return them on Monday again because they needed the money.

A photo of a street of two and three storey buildings. On the right we can see part of a shop and its sign 'A. J. Snee…'. In the distance is 'Henry Sneezum, Pawnbroker and Clothier'. Closer than that is 'Albion House. General Drapery. Fancy Drapery.' Between them is 'Cycle Agent'. There are two horse-drawn carts on the road.
Fore Street, with Henry Sneezum, pawnbroker and clothier, in the distance. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

On Tuesday mornings, if I was at home, I would make a point of going to the window of the upstairs room because Tuesday was the market day when the cattle from Nacton Road, Felixstowe Road, Bucklesham Road would be driven down Bishop’s Hill, along Fore Street round into Salthouse Street on their way to the market. Of course there were practically no cattle vans in those days – a lot of them came by road. The cattle from Foxhall Road came down the Back Hamlet and occasionally two herds would join together, which would mean great excitement along Fore Street. Of course they were followed by a good many boys with their shovels and pails, etc.

Another memorable occasion were the horse-drawn timber carts. These carts had two separate bogies; the front bogie was under the forward part of the actual trunk that was on the timber cart and the other bogie was nearer the other end of the tree trunk so that the actual tree trunk made the body of the cart. These were drawn usually by four Shire horses, two in the shafts attached to the front bogy and the other two in traces ahead of it, and they found it very difficult to round the bend from Salthouse Street to Fore Street – it was about a forty-five degree turn and there had to be a lot of backwardsing and forwardsing before they could actually get round. Of course that would hold up all the traffic, including all the trams, and would make quite a jam.

A photo of a cobbled street junction. There is a large, slightly blurred, dog in the foreground. Opposite the junction a shop has the sign 'Draper. G. H. Jary'. Four men are standing around, wearing caps, one of them very blurred. One of the buildings in the background is half-timbered.
A Victorian view of Fore Street from the junction with Salthouse Street. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The horses then towed the trunk along and went down Duke Street towards Brown’s the timber merchants down by the docks. These trace horses were stationed in the forecourt of the Carpenters Arms at the foot of Bishop’s Hill. These horses were used to help to pull heavy loads up the hill. Bishop’s Hill was much narrower than it is now, with big hedges each side. At the top of the hill, at the junction of Nacton Road and Felixstowe Road, was a large water trough, for the cattle of course, and with metal cups for human drinking, and a lower trough for things like sheep and dogs.

Although cycles were then very popular and the motor-car was just beginning to be more used, the chief means of locomotive power was still the horse. My father had two horses – the names I remember are Charlie and Black Bess. These were used to pull two trolley vans that took vegetables round to two parts of the town: one part was between Fore Hamlet and Back Hamlet such as Foxhall Road, Rose Hill Road and places like that, where there were very few shops and where people were only too pleased to buy their vegetables from the van. The other van used to do the area of Henley Road and Westerfield Road, a better residential area but again an area with very few shops. Dad didn’t know much about horses so of course he had a horseman, a fellow called Tom, whom I particularly remember because he was the first person I knew who had a gramophone and he brought this gramophone along to one of our Christmas parties where the children were absolutely amazed and surprised at hearing such a thing. In fact I think Dad often wondered where Tom got his money from to afford such a thing as a gramophone which was expensive in those days. Anyway Tom used to look after the horses quite well and of course he took around one of the vans and the other van was taken around by a fellow called Bob. I learned to (cycle) ride by going along Fore Street with my Dad and round by the Earl Grey and then coming back again: the cross traffic wasn’t so much of a problem in those days and I soon learned well. Bessie of course was carried on Dad’s cycle if we went any distance, such as to Felixstowe or places like that. Later Bessie and myself cycled to Boyton – eighteen miles that was – when we were staying with our Aunt Ruth. On one occasion on a Sunday, Dad drove over to visit us whilst we were there. He drove over with Charlie pulling the trap but unfortunately he let the horse fall at the Eagle gates. The horse was stabled afterwards at Boyton but because it had running joint oil from its knees owing to the fall it had to be shot: I’ve always remembered that. The place at Boyton where Aunt Ruth lived was the old Mill House with the Mill stump still standing.

Next door to number 90 was a very small shop between 90 and the Neptune Inn. It was just a shop, with one room at the back and two bedrooms upstairs. It was occupied by Haggars, that was the name of the people; they were pork butchers, an elderly couple who had a niece who had a daughter by her cousin who had emigrated to Australia on the promise of sending for her but he never did so.

A photo of two shops on a street. 90-92 is C. B. Gyford, Greengrocer, its sign obscured by foliage presumably fixed to the shop. Outside are many barrels, a cart and displays of fruit and vegetables including bananas. Next door the shop has a sign reading 'E. Haggar'. Five men are standing around along with one boy and then a woman in Gyford's shop doorway.
Fore Street around 1905, with C. B. Gyford’s shop in the foreground and Haggars next door. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The cousin was the son of this elderly couple and so she lived there: it was quite a serious matter in those days of course, this illegitimacy. In the doorway of this shop there were two large hooks, one on each doorpost, from which the carcass of a pig was suspended and cut in halves vertically with a large chopper. This happened twice a week so I suppose they made their living out of these two pigs. Their sausages I always particularly noticed because they had rather large pieces of meat in them and mother used to complain a lot about that. Then one day she learned that they were going to get a new mincer: she was quite excited about it. Lo and behold! – when the new mincer arrived it had exactly the same sized cutters so they still got the large pieces of meat in the sausages. I do remember the scraps of solidified pork fat which they used to sell and which we often had for a five o’clock meal. We used to call them scraps but I believe some people call them scratchings.

Next door to this shop of course was the Neptune Inn, not as some books says the oldest inn in Ipswich – the Sorrel Horse was at least twenty or thirty years older. Within 200 yards of number 90 I should think there were at least thirty pubs whose names I will try to recall. On the corner of Salthouse Street there were three pubs and opposite to the corner one was the Beehive Inn. On the corner of Church Lane was a pub later converted into a fish-shop: on the corner of Fore Street and Waterworks Street was another pub (later) converted into a shop for second-hand furniture. On the opposite side of Fore Street was the Wheatsheaf, whilst at the Eagle Street – Tacket Street junction there was a pub on each corner, four pubs at one crossways. In the other direction there was the Vine public house in Church Street, now part of Grimwade Street, and there were three more at the corners of the Grimwade and Church Street intersection. At the junction with Back Hamlet and Fore Hamlet was quite a large pub, the Earl Grey and there was a pub called the Star on the opposite corner near the Grimwade Memorial Chapel at the corner of Long Street.

A photo of a wide junction on a street. There's a four-wheeled wagon with no horses stood in the open space. Behind it is a two-story building with a grand roof. There's no traffic on the roads and only a few people on the pavements.
A Victorian view of Fore Street by William Vick, at the junction of Back Hamlet (left) and Fore Hamlet (right). The Earl Grey pub is behind the wagon. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

On the opposite corner of Long Street was another pub later converted to a shop. On the other side of the Earl Grey there was one each side of Duke Street which also had a passage leading to the dock-side where there were two more dockside pubs. There were several more pubs along Duke Street opposite Ransomes works and opposite the Gas Works and up Little Wykes Bishop Street. In those days pubs and butchers’ shops both had sawdust sprinkled on the floors. Wykes Bishops Street by the way was the street in which my father was born and where he lived until he was fourteen and from where he went to school, at Cavendish Street school, and I can recall my mother, who was very fussy about her dresses had a dressmaker who lived somewhere around Wykes Bishop Street. I particularly remember the room which she used – it was used as a sort of fitting room, because she used to take me with her so that I would know where to take Bessie for her dresses. The room had dozens of Goss China ornaments on the many shelves around the room: I always remember those.

My sister Bess was born when I was three and a half but I don’t remember anything about the event or about the earlier years of our life together but I do recall that I had to take her to this dressmakers to have her dresses made. My mother was very, very keen on having everything tailor-made if possible; even my suits and shoes had to be tailor made. This really was a drawback, because both these things were soon too small. The shoes being ready made (tailor made) by the time I got them – and it sometimes took the shoemaker a couple of months to make them – they were already getting too small for me and this was very bad for my toes. The same with the suits: by the time I got the suits and had worn them for a few months then the sleeves were too short and the trousers were getting too short for me because I was growing quite quickly. The same thing applied to things like tight kid gloves which we had to wear and which in my case gave me chilblains. Shoes came from a man called Fitch, whose business was actually run under the name of Daldry which was his father-in-law’s name. We used to go to parties when the Fitch children had them and I always recall that from their back bedroom window upstairs you could overlook the Jewish cemetery. I wonder if it’s still there: if it is its where a new by-pass road is going to be constructed. That’s where my shoes were made. My suits came from a Mr. Pierrepoint in Tacket Street opposite the Salvation Army citadel. The Salvation Army citadel was a former theatre where David Garrick made his early appearances. Later my suits came from J. and J. Edwards in Carr Street, then later on much more posh suits from Ridleys.

A photo of a street with mainly three-storey brick buildings. The main one has a big sign painted on one end reading 'Tannkard Inn. Cobbold Light Dark.' We can see the edge of the building at the far left and part of a big sign reading 'CITADEL'.
Tacket Street with the Salvation Army citadel just visible on the left, next to the Tankard Inn. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Further from number 90 beyond the Neptune Inn was Beard’s, grocers and wine merchant. Half their place was a shop and the other part was a rather nice residence. Next to them Barnard’s the corn chandler’s and Isaac Lord’s house and their coal warehouse which led down to the dockside. Then came another fruit shop kept by Richard Potter, who actually was mother’s cousin and who set up shop there in opposition to the Gyfords with the idea of closing them down but of course that just didn’t happen. Then there was Fenner’s cycle shop and Bloomfields the bakeries – which was always a very nice-smelling place of course because the baking was done on the premises. Another pub on the corner and on the opposite side of Fore Street from the pub was Taylor’s sweet shop and Taylor the hairdresser. Further down towards number 90 on the opposite side was the Beehive Inn, then Sneezum’s the pawnbrokers and a furniture shop which later became a communal butcher in the 1914- 18 war, and Jackson’s the chemists. Jackson made his own pills and he actually showed me how to make these pills, which of course was very interesting, with a little wooden press thing. He made things like Jackson’s Little Liver and Kidney Pills: he also had Jackson’s Famous Cough Mixture. His daughter Mary Jackson became a very good concert pianist. Next to them was Meakins, a place I’ve already mentioned, then Mrs. Watson’s boarding house for working men exactly opposite number 90: then Keels’ – Mr. Keel was a solicitor’s clerk, then came Chinnery’s maltings. Next to that a doss-house for poor men, then Betts’ who had home-made sweets and on the corner of what was then Church Street, now Grimwade Street, was Ribbon’s hardware shop, which was below road level, you went down about two steps into the shop. On the other corner was a shop that was empty for some time but later was occupied by Barnard’s who moved from further up Fore Street, that’s next to the Sorrel Horse which I think was built in in 1694. Then came Edward’s the bakers, then a tobacconists and then the social settlement, to which I used to go on Sunday evenings with my grandad Potter except in the summer term.

A photo of a junction on a street with old two and three storey buildings. There's no traffic and just a handful of people including a slightly blurry girl in a dress in the foreground carrying a large package.
Another view of Fore Street, with the Lion and Lamb pub at the centre. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Both sides of my family were staunch Liberals, the Labour Party having had little foothold in agricultural Ipswich in those days. My grandmother Gyford’s sister Annie Stevens had married a Daniel Goddard who was a foreman at the Gas Works. He later became a worker representative on the newly formed Gas Board – to begin with the gas had been manufactured by Ransome’s as a sideline to their engineering works and Ransome himself was a Liberal and a Quaker who worshipped at the Friends Meeting House in St. Peters Street. Getting back to this chap Goddard, he was chosen as Liberal candidate in the 1906 General Election and beat the sitting Conservative candidate. Ipswich had two parliamentary seats in those days and Goddard’s successful partner was the Rev. Sylvester Horne who had three sons, the most prominent of them being the radio and T.V. personality, Kenneth Horne. The Chairman of the Ipswich Liberal Association was Major Rowley Ellison whose daughter married Isaac Foot, a strong Liberal and the Foots had three sons of whom the most notorious is Michael Foot whom I believe people think is a Socialist.

A yellow, black and white card or poster with black and white photos of the heads of two men, one with white hair, moustache and beard (labeled COBBOLD), the other with glasses and moustache (GODDARD). A banner across the top reads 'IPSWICH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION'. In the middle it says 'SOUVENIR, 1906' and underneath 'THE LIBERAL MEMBERS'.
A postcard of the Liberal candidates for the Ipswich parliamentary election of 1906, Felix Cobbold and Daniel Ford Goddard. (From Wikipedia)

Getting back to that chap Goddard again. He won the next General Election in 1910, was knighted and became a Privy Councillor so rejoiced in the billing as the Rt. Hon. Sir Daniel Ford Goddard, but he was beaten in the General Election after the 1914-18 war, when Ipswich became a one-member seat; he was beaten by Captain Ganzoni. Ganzoni later purchased Belstead House on the outskirts of Ipswich near the Ostrich Inn on Wherstead Road, and Ganzoni became Lord Belstead and his son is now a worthy junior minister in Mrs. Thatcher’s circus.

Before the 1914-18 war Goddard used to hold regular Sunday evening services for men in the social settlement and I used to wait outside the social settlement at about 6.30 for my grandfather to come along.

A colourised photo with a three storey brick building in the background and a double-decker green electric tram in the foreground.
A postcard showing the Social Settlement on Fore Street, probably in 1904. (From the Ipswich Society)

He would take me in with him although I was only ten years old at the time. There was the usual hymn-singing, mostly sailors’ hymns like Eternal Father Strong to Save and that sort of thing, and there was usually a lantern-slide lecture given either by Goddard, who had travelled quite a bit, or by some guest speaker. But the enthusiasm was mainly in the Liberal cause there were practically no socialists in those days but it was quite interesting and I enjoyed going to these things which ceased of course when war broke out.

My mother was very fond of crocheting and knitting: she would make cushion covers using the cloths which were marked out in squares and using thick cotton in a circular pattern in each square: it made a very nice design and so we had many nice coloured cushions about the place. My dad had no particular hobby, he was concerned mainly with the extension of the shop and the fact that he was very much now in the wholesale business as well and he also acted as a ship’s chandler – he supplied practically all the vegetables and meat to the various ships in the Ipswich docks. Many of these of course were sailing ships; I have seen as many as four full-sized sailing ships at one time on the far side of the docks. And of course steamships were becoming much more important then and several of those would be in the docks at the same time and he would have the supplies for those. He had also opened another shop in Brook Street and had a third one in St. Matthews Street, so he got very busy in that way and he had no particular hobbies of any sort. He never smoked cigarettes or a pipe but was very fond of cigars and he usually smoked those at the weekends: I would be sent to Dotheby’s, the tobacconists in Orwell Place, now part of Tacket Street, to buy the cigars, which were called Torpedoes and cost threepence each.

A busy street scene with a few dozen people quite dressed up. Women and girls are wearing long dresses and wide-brimmed hats. Men are wearing a variety of caps, boaters, bowler hats, etc. A man in the foreground with a bowler hat has a white shirt and tie, a three-piece suit, and is smoking a pipe. A small boy is looking at the camera, wearing a wide straw hat with a white collar spreading over his shoulders and chest.
Orwell Place, around 1910. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Most of the shopkeepers in those days wore waistcoats and white aprons; the butchers wore striped aprons and straw hats.


§ My first school was Clifford Road Infants School. I went up Back Hamlet, then turn left along an unmade road across Grove Lane which was not then built up. There was high ground on each side of Grove Lane in those days and there were deep gulleys down the sandy banks where the children clambered up or down. There were open fields from Grove Lane to Clifford Road itself which appeared to be on the edge of the town although there were houses then along Foxhall Road. The headmistress was a Miss Garrard who lived in Palmerston Road and who treated me as a rather favourite child – probably because she was a school friend of my mother and a staunch Liberal. Both my sister and myself were able to read well by the time we started school. I don’t know why that was, as I cannot recall ever getting any reading lessons, but there were always books available in our house, mostly along religious lines. My favourite reading material was comics – Comic Cuts on Tuesdays with its Dreamy Daniel and Weary Willie, and Chips on Thursday with its tramp Tired Tim and its back page Casey Court which was a weekly wonder of Do it Yourself in those early days. Other periodicals I recall were Tit-bits and Answers, but it was not until I was nine years old that I graduated to the Boy’s Own Paper, and the novels of R. G. Henty and Rudyard Kipling and Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes.

Comic Cuts from 15 October 1910, and Chips from 1 August 1908. (From Wonderfully Vulgar, Comic Cuts and Chips)

At Clifford Road school during the reading lessons each day I was given a duster and told to dust the shelves and silver cups in the hallway and so pass my time because I was such a good reader – it was a waste of time to sit in at the reading class, I was much ahead of any of the class. At eight years of age I transferred to the Central School in Smart Street off Foundation Street where the headmaster was Mr. Harrison. There was a fee of 6d a week at this school although it was a Council school: girls were on the ground floor of the building and boys on the first floor. What I particularly recall was that on Empire Day we would all parade in the playground and the Australian flag would be raised whilst we sang ‘Rule Britannia’ and we were told that on that same day the Union Jack had been raised at our corresponding school in Ipswich, Queensland. At the end of my first year there, Mr. Harrison retired and was replaced by a Mr. Welburn who was the first graduate head of a primary school in Ipswich. He had a B.Sc. and was also well-known locally as a musician.

My sister Bess began her schooling at the age of five at Miss Banks’ private school in Foundation Street which meant that I could take her to school as it was only just round the corner from the Central School. I believe Miss Banks’ fees were 6d a day. It was from the Central School that I took the eleven plus exam for a scholarship and passed, much to the annoyance of the parents of my school chum, Percy Gilbert, who lived in Church Street and who did not pass his 11+. According to my mother the chief objection to me being given a scholarship was that I was only ten and a half years old but that the Gilbert boy was eleven, and so I ought not to qualify for another year. Anyway, we both went on to the Secondary School that September, although I think the Gilbert boy had to pay half-fee. Actually, in September the Secondary School did not resume its school year until ten days after the Central School resumed and my parent insisted that I returned to the Central School for those ten days, much to my annoyance at the time, but it was all for the best because I was placed in the 5th Form where a Mr. Murgatroyd introduced me to Algebra, and from that time onwards Mathematics seemed to become reasonably easy for me. I was the only one in the first form in my new school who had ever done any algebra.

I realise that I seem to have skimmed over my early days without giving much detail of what I did with my time. Up to the age of about six I had to wear a smock-like overall to protect my clothes when playing in the back yard – many children wore overalls in those days. Apart from the back yard to play in, there were also the store-sheds, the stables and a very large loft over the shed and stables. There was also a large concrete paved corridor leading to the outside lavatory which had no cistern but where there always seemed to be a small stream flowing into the docks which flushed the W.C. Looking back I would think that the stream flowed under the house because our kitchen was built up on piles as an addition to the original building. I kept a number of pets at various times – rabbits, guinea pigs and some pigeons and chocolate coloured doves in the loft. I also had a goat and a goat-cart similar to the ones that could be hired on the front at Felixstowe. One day I borrowed a broody hen from Grandad Potter and successfully hatched out a dozen chicks but the rats got the lot. Creatures I didn’t keep were rats and mice, the hollow plaster walls were alive with them: you could hear them running along the walls. We always had two or three cats which kept the rats and mice away from the shop and the store rooms.

A photo of an area of grass and trees with a small single storey building in the background. The sun is casting shadows. There are lots of adults and children sitting, walking and playing. Women and girls in long dresses and, usually, wide-brimmed hats. The men most often in flat caps and suits.
Christchurch Park. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

During holiday time, Bess and I would spend a lot of time in Christchurch Park playing cowboys and Indians, which was the outcome of our Saturday visits to Poole’s Picture Palace in Tower Street. Each Saturday we were given tuppence, two old pennies, and that was usually spent as a halfpenny for two ounces of pear drops, a halfpenny for a comic and one penny for the cinema. As you entered the cinema you threw your penny into an open box – no nonsense about tickets then – the box was under the watchful eye of a small man always called “Monkey” and he could spot a foreign coin at once.

A photo of a cinema auditorium looking over the seats directly at the screen. There are balconies on either side.
Poole’s Picture Palace. (From Ipswich Film Society)

We used not to arrive too early at the cinema, because the early comers were ushered into the main body of the hall and had to sit on hard wooden seats whereas latecomers were allowed upstairs to occupy the plush seats. Of course, the films were silent but accompanied by a pianist and the roar that went up when the show began was something out of this world. There were usually three films – a serial where the villain was always putting the heroine in danger. The villain was always greeted with hisses and at the end of the film when the girl had been rescued and was being kissed by the hero there were boos and sarcastic remarks. The second film was usually a newsreel which was watched in comparative silence and I think with some interest, but the third film was what we had all been waiting for – either cowboys and Indians or slapstick comedy such as Charlie Chaplin. We really did enjoy those shows although I always left the cinema with a terrible headache – I expect it was the flickering of the pictures, together with the complete absence of any ventilation.

This Poole’s Picture Palace was run by a family called Poole and began originally as a magic lantern show in Tower Street. Later on two other cinemas opened in Ipswich – the Cinema in Princes Street and the Picture House in Tavern Street near the Cornhill. One day at school in 1915 I was told by some chums: “Gyford, saw you on the newsreel last night”. An Army sergeant who had lived in Ipswich had been awarded the Victoria Cross and the local authority were giving him a civic reception and this was recorded by Gaumont British News. The first part of the reception was a drive from the railway station to the Town Hall in an open carriage along streets lined by cheering well-wishers. Of course, crowds of youngsters were following the carriage and there was I on my bicycle just behind the cab as it approached the Cornhill – brief moments of reflected glory.

A leaflet or advert with 'PICTURE HOUSE' at the top. Below that it says 'and Cafe. Tavern St., Ipswich.' Below is a photo of a cinema auditorium, looking quite grand, including chandeliers hanging from the ceiling.
The Picture House. (From Cinema Treasures)

I also recall early in 1917 the first ‘talking picture’. It was Shakespeare’s King Henry the Fifth and the prologue and the King’s speech before Harfleur were recited on the stage alongside the picture by an actor who made a very good job of it. We were taking Henry the Fifth for our School Certificate that year so practically all the form went to see the film. I can still recite many parts of that play including those two speeches.

I did reasonably well at school. My English was good so I found that Composition – which was really writing essays – became almost natural when combined with a little imagination. My spelling was good so I was always first in dictation – that was probably due to my early reading skills. Mathematics presented very few problems and I enjoyed both Physics and Chemistry, but Art was not in my line – I think my drawings and paintings must have been too futuristic. No doubt there was some early evidence of my later journalistic skills as in the 4th Form I founded and edited the form magazine – I still have three copies of that monthly publication including my wonderful ‘Adventures of Wharlie Whaplin’. Obviously I was aware of copyright and dare not use the name Charlie Chaplin. The magazines contain a list of those form-mates who had brought eggs to school for me to give to the wounded soldiers at the Suffolk Hospital.

Those school-days were occasionally interrupted by air raid warnings which were given by the sounding of the foundry sirens – what we called the ‘bulls’. On hearing these we were sent home until another siren sounded the all-clear. Although warnings were given on many occasions there were only a very few actual air raids. The warnings were caused by Zeppelins returning from raids elsewhere, chiefly on London, and of course on their way back to Germany, but one actual raid I do recall clearly. It was at about 7.30 on a Friday evening. My father was out looking at some property – he acted as a valuer for Oxborrows the estate agent. Mother was as usual doing her knitting and Bessie was at the table reading. I was doing my Geometry homework – Theorem 23, the square on the hypoteneuse equals the sum of the squares on the other two sides – suddenly a loud thump that rattled the windows. Mother said “under the table”. Before we got there there was another thump and then a third one, and we could hear the br-br-br of a Zeppelin’s engines dying away in the distance. A few minutes later my father rushed in, saying he had seen the Zeppelin.

A terrace of houses with the end demolished exposing a large hole and wooden lath in the remaining building. A man in uniform stands guard and two men and three boys look on from the opposite side of th
Damage from a World War I zeppelin raid. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The first bomb hit a house in Salthouse Street opposite the Customs House, killing two people and setting the house on fire. The second bomb fell into the dock and the third one into the river between the lock gates and Stoke Bridge – not bad aiming for those days so its probable that they wanted to smash the lock gates. The very first raid I recall was in the summer of 1915 when we were on holiday at Aunt Ruth’s in Hollesley. Uncle William was away on Army service. We were asleep when we were awakened by loud gunfire from the anti-aircraft guns in Shingle Street about a mile across the marshes. Bessie and I rushed into Auntie’s room in alarm but had great difficulty in arousing her – she was almost stone deaf and had heard nothing. No bombs were dropped but the Zeppelin was hit and came down in the North Sea.

A photo showing a terrace of houses with no roofs and daylight showing through the upstairs windows. Policemen stand outside.
Houses on Brook Hall Road destroyed by a zeppelin raid. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Going back to my schooldays something I enjoyed very much was the once-a-month nature ramble taken by the Nature Study master Mr. Bachelor. He usually took us in the direction of Westerfield or Henley, and how interesting I found it all – butterflies, insects, birds, flowers. One field I still remember vividly – flowering with cowslips and buttercups and a stream that was alive with tadpoles and banks lined with elms. Over fifty years later I motored out along the Henley Road to see if I could find that same field. I found it – not built on as I had feared but just as I had always pictured it, but without the tadpoles. Happy days.

Most of the popular songs of those days we heard from the whistling and singing of the errand boys, or from the many barrel organs and the hurdy-gurdies, both of which usually had a monkey to attract money. There was also the occasional performing dancing bear with a ring through its nose – the ring fastened to the end of a pole so that the bear had to rise on its hind legs and swivel round as the pole was moved about. Gramophones were also becoming more in use and my parents had a HMV gramophone – the first one with cylindrical records that began with the words “This is an Edison Bell record”, and then later a gramophone that had the flat records. These gramophones were both of course hand wound.

A photo of a street of terraced houses with three or four horse-drawn carriages driven by men in overcoats and top hats. The front-most one has two dark horses and is a hearse, with glass sides and flowers on top. In the background nine men carry a coffin down steps from the front door of one of the houses. A police sergeant looks on.
A funeral procession in Ipswich. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

In my young days many of the side roads would have straw spread over them if there was any illness in the road. That was to deaden the sound of horses hooves and the cart wheels – but of course this didn’t happen on main roads because of the tram-lines. Funerals seemed to be everyday events then – the horses with black plumes on their heads and black drapeson the outer side. Most of poorer people belonged to a funeral club into which they paid a few pence each week so that they could afford a proper funeral. For a child, it was usual for the small coffin to be placed under the seat where the driver sat and behind this was the cab-compartment for up to six people. In the country areas it was usual for the coffins to be either taken to a churchyard on a farm wagon or on a four-wheeled light platform carriage, similar to the conveyance used by the police to get the drunks to the police station on a Saturday night. I recall that one wall of my parent’s shop was hung with artificial wreaths under glass domes – small sizes were £1 each and large one £5. I think later the cemetery authorities banned these glass domes as they were considered to be dangerous.

My father did considerable business supplying fruit and vegetables to ships and I think he had some sort of financial arrangement with the dockside public house to put the ships’ business his way. Anyway we seemed to be friendly with a great number of publican’s children and we always went to their Christmas parties and they came to ours. I can recall seeing as many as three fully-rigged sailing ships as well as smaller barquantines and brigantines in the docks at one time together with several steam vessels and many barges moored side-by-side four deep. My father as a young man made a trip in a ketch to Blythe in Northumberland with a return cargo of coal – but he only made the one trip. He said that was enough for him.

The Arthur Fitger docked at Ipswich in April 1900. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Actually he began work at the age of 14 by going up to London to work with his eldest sister Laura who had a very flourishing flower business in the High Street, Stoke Newington. He came back to Ipswich two years later when she got married to a Mr. Stockles and his help was no longer needed. He said he often had to get up at four o’clock in the morning, in order to get to Covent Garden Market to buy the boxes of flowers. After leaving London he had a short spell in the Post Office at Ipswich in the sorting department before he joined the Army. He was stationed in the Ipswich Barracks in St. Matthews and it was whilst there that he met my mother who after their engagement came to live with her married sister, Anna in nearby Clarkson Street, and they were married at St. Matthew’s Church.

I was baptised in St. Clement’s church but I cannot recall either of my parents being church-goers, and I never attended St. Clement’s church. When I was about ten years of age I had to go with my sister Bess on Sunday morning to the Congregational Church at the foot of Back Hamlet – the Grimwade Memorial Chapel was its official name. I suppose the reasons for being sent there were that my Aunt Kate attended that chapel and the Grimwade family were staunch Liberals. John Henry Grimwade was the nephew of the ‘memorial’ Grimwade and had inherited the family business of gentlemen’s outfitters on the corner of Westgate Street and the Cornhill. The Grimwades lived in a large house on Fonnereau Road, and every Sunday morning the family of four would set out on its progress to church, walking down the centre of the road, across St. Margaret’s Plain, down Upper Orwell Street and Fore Street – there were no trams running on Sundays. John Henry attired in morning frock-coat and striped trousers with a shining black top hat, was obviously in charge and would doff his hat to any passerby who glanced at him. Bessie and I used to walk up Fore Street deliberately so that I could touch my cap to him and watch him pompously raise his topper – it quite amused us.

We also attended the Sunday School opposite the chapel and when I was twelve I was given the job of School Librarian, but during the war years my devotions wandered elsewhere and I attended the Wesleyan Methodist Church in Museum Street, St. Bartholomews’ Church off Felixstowe Road, the Salvation Army citadel in Tacket Street – my Aunt Hannah was a Salvationist and her son, my cousin Willie Newson, played a cornet in the band; and I went to the Town Mission which was a break-away from the Salvation Army and held its meetings in Poole’s Picture Palace in Tower Street. On one occasion I accompanied a Mr. Hilling, who was a business partner of my father, to a Quaker meeting in the Friends’ Meeting House in Friars Street and met Mr. Ransome the boss of Ransome, Sims and Jeffries the foundry people, but I did not like the informality of the service. On the whole I think I preferred the High Church Anglo-Catholicism of St. Bartholomew’s. I never attended a Roman Catholic church. I think there was only one in Ipswich and that was in Orwell Place, which is now part of Packet Street.

Reverting to my years at the Secondary School, the school building was in the Tower Ramparts and faced what was left of the original wall around the port of Gyppeswyk which was the former name of Ipswich. The Ramparts were about three foot above street level and about half-a-dozen houses had been built on the foundations.

A photo showing an empty street. On the right of the road a grass verge leads up to the pavement and a few houses. In the distance is a four-storey warehouse or factory with a tall chimeny and a covered bridge across the road. There is a very tall telegraph pole. There are six young boys and a young woman stood at various places looking at the camera.
Tower Ramparts in the 1880s, or maybe later. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

To the right was the north gate to the port – that is Northgate Street and to the left was the west gate where Westgate Street joined St. Matthew’s Street at a five-way junction known as Hyde Park Corner where Churchman’s the tobacconists had a shop with a more than life size figure of a Scotsman in full ceremonial dress in the doorway. Parallel to the Ramparts was Soane Street where there was a row of shops one of which was the school’s unofficial tuck-shop which we were allowed to patronise in the mid-morning break. The name over the doorway was M. A. Bell so of course it was known as Ma Bells. There was often an appetising smell of fried sausages from the kitchen as Ma Bell had given the sixth form prefects permission to do that. The majority of these lads and their followers in later years did not survive the horrors of the Somme, Passchendale and Hill 60. The shops have now disappeared together with the Ramparts which are now part of the car park.


§ Somehow it is always the pleasant things that remain most vivid in one’s memory and no doubt that is a good thing, as one doesn’t want to relive unpleasant happenings and actually I cannot recall any unpleasant things. My week-ends were chiefly occupied by playing on the dock-side, on and off the barges and I can recall more names of the barges now – the Ida which was built in 1895, the May built in 1901, the Alice May which was new to me in 1905, the Spinaway and the Cambria. Some of these still sail in the annual Thames Sailing Barge race.

A photo of a river with a pebbley bank leading down to it. There are a number of sail boats moored in various places, including a large barge in the centre with its sails furled.
A barge docked at Ipswich in the mid 1890s. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Many of the skippers were school-mates of my father or mother but although they knew me and my sister Bess, I have forgotten their names. On at least three occasions I sailed down-river on a barge and was put ashore at Pin Mill with my cycle and made my way home from there. There were three main barge owners: R & W Paul who had their own shipbuilding and repair yard just outside the lockgates. Paul’s barges had a white cross on the topsails, which I think represented a windmill because they were mainly concerned with wheat and barley milling. Cranfield’s was another milling firm that owned barges that brought not only grain but lucca beans for cattle feed. A third bargeowning firm was Measons whose emblem was a white moon – they were general carriers and did not do any milling. All these barges were well-maintained and several of the larger ones traded to the continent – these were gaff ketches known as ‘boomies’. The smaller ones were known as ‘spritties’ with a spritsail on the mizzen mast, although slightly larger barges had the spritsail on the main mast and a gaff on the mizzen. A barge with a crew of these was known as a ‘matie’, but many had only two in the crew, with an extra boy during the school holidays to help with the cooking.

A photo of the corner of some docks with five-storey warehouses lining the dock in the background. There are three barges docked next to each other, sails furled.
The barges Mabel, Fossil and Nautius in Ipswich Dock near Coprolite Street in the 1890s. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

When not playing on the docks or in our backyard, Bessie and I would go to Christchurch Park particularly to play Cowboys and Indians in the conifer plantations, re-living the films we had seen. Occasionally we would go up to Bishop’s Hill to the race course and make our way across to Grandad Potter’s garden where we were assured of plenty of fruit and the gift of a penny each from Grandad.

Naturally, summer holidays were the best for enjoyment. My first August holiday away from home was spent at Boyton, a few miles from Hollesby, which I have mentioned before. This was to stay with Uncle William Sharpe and Aunt Ruth, my mother’s sister. Uncle Will was secretary and accountant to the Hollesley Bay Labour Colony which was run by the London County Council and provided farm work for men from London who were on remand, or on probation or just, I suppose, were unemployed. The colony was concerned mainly with fruit-farming, with a considerable amount of arable land that was being won back from the surrounding heathland. There was dairy farming on the marshes, and they also did well breeding Suffolk horses, which they continued to breed even after mechanisation took over. Bessie and I cycled to Boyton via Woodbridge and Melton across miles of heathland dotted with small conifer woods and inhabited by hundreds – probably thousands – of rabbits. The first part of this heathland turned out to be the site of the Sutton Hoo Viking discoveries. Much of the heath is now occupied by Bentwaters, the airfield run jointly by the R.A.F. and the United States Air Force. The tiny village of Boyton was on slightly higher land than the surrounding marshes which probably explains the windmill there – our uncle’s house was called The Old Mill House and the mill stump still existed in the garden.

My main enjoyment of the holiday was wandering about the countryside, particularly along the marshes that led down to Hollesley Bay. There were quite a number of grass snakes to be seen – quite harmless as distinct from the poisonous adders on the heathland. A wonderful variety of birds especially on the shore of the bay – oyster catchers, spoonbills, and a variety of gulls which in those days seemed to keep well out to sea and show little interest in the farmlands as they do today. It was here that I was first introduced – by some village children – to the devil’s puff ball which when dried out gave a black powder that would heal up cuts and scratches – I have wondered since if this was a form of penicillin. There was only one shop in the village – a Post Office combined with a general store where one could buy sweets and which Bessie and I patronised each day and probably accounted for our popularity with the village children.

A photo showing a village road with a couple of brick buildings, and tall trees in the background.
Hollesley post office and stores around 1915. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

I recall the variety of sweets now – large pear drops, small pear drops, acid drops, orange suckers, lime suckers, mint humbugs, clove humbugs – all of which we enjoyed excepting the clove ones. Unfortunately the sweets were twice the price charged in Ipswich shops. We got only two ounces for a penny. I cannot recall any chocolate being on sale.

By the following year the Sharpes had moved to Ivy Cottage in Hollesley near to the Colony’s headquarters. Ivy Cottage was a large four bedroomed house with two large reception rooms and a very large kitchen. There was no bathroom but a very large kitchen table was hinged to the wall under the window and when this table top was raised it would reveal a white porcelain bath. Water was heated in a large coal-fired copper in the corner of the kitchen and the water transferred to the bath by means of a long-handled ladle. The cold water supply was from a pump over the sink and the pump needed to be primed by pouring in about a pint of water to make sure it would draw up from below. The closet was in an outside shed and consisted of a wooden seat over a large pail which was emptied each night by the night-soil man who would open a small trap-door at the back of the shed and empty the contents into a four wheeled tank drawn by a horse whose clumping hooves were sure to wake you up during the night. Cooking was done on a coal-fired oven and Aunt Ruth used to bake the most delicious rabbit pies I have tasted, supplemented by slices of fat pork. Fortunately, in view of her deafness, Aunt Ruth had very little household shopping to do – all foodstuffs were supplied by the colony, that was one of the perks of the job, so that at least twice a week fresh fruit and vegetables were delivered together with joints of meat, rabbits, hares, chickens and bread. But Auntie did bake her own cakes and, of course, the various meat pies.

The house stood in a large area of garden, mostly lawns and flower beds but it included a mixed woodland coppice which to me was a boy’s delight as it attracted many kinds of birds and I could climb the trees to locate and look at the eggs in the nests – I never robbed a single nest, I don’t think it occurred to me. On the opposite side of the roadway was a high bank of sand and this was riddled with holes made by sand martins which were flying in and out all day. When I tired of the garden I would wander across the marshes that stretched to what was left of Hollesley dock – it was said that quite a lot of smuggling went on here and gin was referred to as “a drop of Lloyd George” as he, when Chancellor of the Exchequer, had put a tax on spirits that made it more worthwhile to dabble in smuggling.

August of course, was the harvest month and I recall the excitement of being in a field of corn that was being cut. Armed with a stick, we children waited for the rabbits that were in the uncut section and then we moved in striking at the rabbits as they attempted to escape. I remember my disappointment when the first rabbit I struck down was taken from me and added to the other dead rabbits to be distributed to the field workers when the cut was finished. I did get a rabbit to take home but it was not the one I had killed.

A photo of a field with two large hay stacks, one half-way constructed. They are round and, when finished, have a conical top, reaching two or three storeys high. There are several men at work, a horse-drawn wagon, and a steam engine.
Harvest in Suffolk, around 1900. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

There were no combine harvesters in use at that time and the reaper-binder, drawn by two horses, cut the corn-stalks to within a few inches of the ground, arranged and tied them into sheaves which were then thrown clear of the binder. Workers then gathered up the sheaves and stacked them together, eight or ten sheaves to make the stooks which usually remained in the field for a day or two to dry out. Then a large horse-drawn farm cart was used to carry the sheaves to wherever the stack was to be built – usually in the corner of the field, to await the arrival of the threshing machine, which was usually towed by a traction-engine. The threshing machine was operated by a leather belt over the drive wheel which passed over the flywheel of the traction-engine. Then men with pitchforks passed the sheaves from the stack to a man on top of the machine and the man would cut the binder string and push the sheaf into the moving machinery. From one end of the thresher the grains would spill out into sacks and from the other end the stalks would be carried away on a moving belt to form a straw stack. Straw was in constant demand in those days as bedding for horses and cattle and there was no reason for burning it as happens today. Occasionally, if a farmer needed to get on with his ploughing he would set fire to the stubble, but as there was no standing straw there was not the nuisance of smoke as you get today when it is necessary to clear the fields of what seems to be a useless product – straw.

A photo of a steam engine attached by a long belt to another piece of wheeled machinery. Behind that is a high stack of hay and some kind of wide wooden ladder or conveyor leads up to the top of it. There are several men at work, many holding long-handled tools.
Threshing by steam power in Suffolk in the late 1920s. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The colony had its own shoeing-forge for the large number of horses and on a rainy day I would sit in the forge and watch the two shoe-smiths at their jobs and marvel at the docility of the huge Suffolk horses amidst all that hammering of steel, the smell of burning hoofs and the heat of the fire which was kept going by the blast from hand-operated bellows. There were occasional riding horses to be shod and the governor of the colony was a keen hunting man, as was his son Jack Barton who married one of the daughters of Sir Edmond Vestey, later Lord Vestey, the boss of the shipping line of refrigerated vessels and large cattle interests in Uruguay and Argentina. In 1916, because Aunt Ruth then had three children of her own to look after, our August holiday was spent in Hintlesham at the home of a small-holder named Dyer who supplied Ipswich shops with fruit. He used to get his fruit mainly from the gardens of the surrounding villages – he had some sort of contract with them – and Bess and I used to help him gather the fruit. The small-holding was about 25 acres and included a large field of wheat, a large orchard and two grass paddocks for the horse and the milk-cow. Later during the war these paddocks were taken over as an emergency landing area for aircraft.

Mr. Dyer was a keen Salvationist and played a flute in the Hadleigh Citadel Band and his son George played the trombone, so on Sundays we all cycled to Hadleigh for the services which included open-air meetings in the High Street and a march back to the Citadel behind the Salvation Army band.

A photo of a wet town street with two and three storey buildings on each side. There are two horse-drawn wagons in the distance and a few people dotted around. A sign sticking out from the building closest on the right reads 'THE GEORGE HOTEL. C. MURTON'.
Hadleigh High Street. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

I still recall the framed tract on the dining room wall opposite to where I sat for my meals – God is the head of this house, the unseen guest at every meal, the silent listener to every conversation. One of my daily tasks was the collection of eggs that could be found in many different parts of the farmyard and I would get about thirty a day. On one occasion I went up into a loft from which I had noticed a hen fly down – they really can fly – and I found a clutch of forty-two eggs. Money for the eggs always went to Mrs. Dyer, its a country custom that the farmer’s wife gets the egg money. On our last holiday there in 1917 the threshing machine arrived, supplied by a contractor who served all the neighbouring farms in rotation. This was a new self-contained machine that did not need a traction engine for its motive power, and took only about two hours to do the whole of the small crop. That was my last holiday on a farm as I left school that year.

I cannot recall that either my sister or I had any particular hobby, but we had plenty of interests. I had a small Meccano set but was not very keen on it as I found the small nuts and bolts rather fiddling to handle. I preferred a construction kit called Kliptiko which consisted of thin, hollow metal rods that could be clipped together to form buildings, bridges, lifting cranes or ships. I also had a very good collection of lead toy soldiers, many of them in the correct regimental colours, and some in khaki which had come into general use in the South African war. There was also a gun and limber drawn by six horses. This gun had a pull-spring which fired wooden pellets with enough force to knock down toy soldiers. There was also an ambulance van drawn by two horses which my father said was similar to the one in which as a wounded man he spent several days on the journey southwards to Cape Town. In keeping with this military outfit I had a wooden fort complete with moat and drawbridge.

In 1915 I paid sixpence for my first camera bought from the former penny bazaar, later re-named Domestic Bazaar, at the corner of Providence Street and Westgate Street. This camera was a black cardboard two inch cube with a photographic plate inside opposite to a pinhole in the front. Moving aside the cover to the pinhole, exposed the plate for a few seconds and resulted in quite a good photographic negative. The drawback was that you had to break open the box to get at the negative so a new camera was needed for each picture. I read up all about the development and fixing of negatives and the printing of pictures from a library book and was so successful that I saved up five shillings to buy a real camera. This again was a box camera with the trade name of Clincher, and it held six photographic plates one behind the other and when the foremost was exposed a lever could be pulled and it was dropped to the bottom of the camera so it could be removed and developed without waiting for the other plates to be exposed – or of course, all six plates could be exposed one after the other if required. I had quite a lot of success with this camera and much regret that all this photographic apparatus and pictures, together with my toy soldiers, etc., disappeared when we moved from Fore Street to Hatfield Road after the war.

My sister Bess had a large Teddy Bear who sported a very good tailor-made waistcoat made by a professional tailoress, a Miss Lillie who was a Salvation Army comrade of my mother’s sister, Hannah. Bess also had a large sleeping doll whose eyes closed when it was laid down – that was a novelty then – together with a cradle and a large furnished dolls’ house of four rooms, a hall and a staircase. My sister also wore at times a nurse’s uniform with a red cross on the bib of the white apron, and she had a good cooking stove and oven on which she actually cooked fried chips – Dad ate some of them but Mother wouldn’t touch them. Both my sister and I had regular piano lessons for four or five years and at one time we had a harmonium as well as the piano. The harmonium had bellows operated by foot pedals, and was played for hymns on Sundays. That also disappeared in the move along with my sister’s toys – and mine.

In 1914 when I reached the age of twelve I was able to join the School Scout Troop. Our uniform was dark blue shirt, shorts and stockings with a khakhi neckerchief and the regulation broad-brimmed hat, a scout-knife and a whistle and of course, the five-foot wooden pole carried by all Scouts in those days. This pole was very useful to help in vaulting ditches and low hedges. In 1915 we camped in Woolverstone Park, along the Shotley Road, near to Freston Tower, along the bank of the River Orwell.

A photo of a seven-storey square brick tower with one window on each side per floor. There are trees around it, almost as tall as the tower.
Freston Tower around 1860. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Much of this area appears in Constable’s paintings, especially the Boot Inn at Freston and the one of Landguard Fort near the mouth of the Orwell. I believe that this latter painting really put Constable onto artistic success when it was exhibited in London. However, back to the Scout camp. There were forty of us in five bell tents, a sixth tent for the scoutmaster, Mr. Mossman and his assistant and a small marquee as a dining tent. It was here that I first took a real interest in cooking – sausages and mash mostly, but that’s what boys like; porridge and bacon and eggs for breakfast; toast, cheese and jam for supper and tea or fizzy lemonade. There was a very cheap fizzy drink in those days called Monsters – twice as large a bottle as any other kind and a penny back on the empty bottle. We had a small drum and bugle band and on the way home from camp I was sufficiently capable of playing one of the drums on the way home – a proud moment. Scouting instruction was quite practical and I learned a lot about erecting a tent, tying rope-knots, and elementary first-aid and identification of various birds especially the wading birds along the River Orwell. Unfortunately I was in the Wood-pigeon patrol whose call – book-a-ooo, book-a-ooo – might be all right in a town but in a country area where there were dozens of pigeons it was just hopeless. The Scout troop closed down when the Scoutmaster and his assistant were called up for Army service, and was replaced by an Army Cadet Force for which I was too young.

One wonders what it is that creates the start of a new activity such as the spinning of tops season. Suddenly one morning it would be top-spinning time as all the rage. There were two main kinds of tops – the mushroom one and the inverted circular cone known as a Dutch top. Both types could be made to spin by winding the string of a whip around them and then jerking the whip and keeping the top spinning by furious whipping which also propelled the top several yards if you were lucky. Some people were expert enough to spin the top by a twist of the fingers as the top fell to the ground. Roads and pavements were the usual areas for top-spinning, as school playgrounds were considered danger areas. Of course, there were very few motor cars about then, but I should have thought that the horses, carts and tramcar were serious difficulties. Perhaps we kept mainly to the side roads. There was also a much larger type of metal Dutch top which could be propelled by a wound-up spring and which made a humming noise but this was really an expensive toy – about a shilling I should think.

Then suddenly the season would change – the girls would take up skipping and the boys were all for leap-frog on the way to school and around the playground. One particular type of more stationery leapfrog was known as ‘uppa-giddy, uppa-giddy, one, two, three’. This was played by opposing sides of up to six boys. One boy stood against a wall and his team mates bent down before him in a line jutting out from the wall. The opposing team, one at a time, leapt on to the line of boys as far up to the wall as possible and when all were in place they chanted “uppa-giddy, uppa-giddy, one, two, three” and if the line had not collapsed by the time they had finished, the team below had won.

Hop-skotch was mainly a girls’ game, but marbles was essentially for boys. It was possible to play a moving game of marbles on the way to school by bowling a marble along the gutter in an attempt to hit the previous marble of your opponent. If you made a hit, then you kept the other marble. There was also a more stationary game where you crouched around a shallow hole in the ground and with a flick of your thumb knocked someone else’s marble into the hole which entitled you to another shot at a third marble and so on until your own marble went into the hole and someone else took over. A third game was a real business affair for which you needed a piece of wood about a foot long which had four or five half circles of wood cut out. Above the semi-circle was a number, 4, 3, 2, 1 and zero. You were charged one marble a go and you bowled a marble in an attempt to pass through one of the numbered tunnels. If you went through zero you lost your marble. If through no. 1 you were entitled to another go. If through no. 2 you had another go plus an extra marble. Through three, then two extra marbles. I think the ownership of such a marble block was akin to a bookmaker’s licence – you couldn’t lose.

A photo of two round wooden sticks, tapering towards the far end where they have a piece of string tying them together, through holes in their ends. There's a dark metal thing, round, like two circular cones joined at their apexes. There is black rubber around the circular edges. The visible end has a five-pointed star in the centre and the word 'DIABOLO' embossed on it.
Criss Gyford’s Diabolo, in 2026.

Two other games with which my sister and I were supplied were Diabolo and Ping-Pong. Diabolo consists of two sticks joined by a four foot piece of string and you held one stick in each hand. The diabolo was a cylindrical piece of wood about three inches long and two inches in diameter with its centre portion cut away so that it looked like two circular cones joined at the apex. With the sticks held a few inches apart the diabolo was balanced on the hanging string – that took some doing to begin with – then the sticks were jerked apart, tightening the string and propelled the whirling diabolo up into the air and then came the difficult part of catching it on the outstretched string before it reached the ground. Not at all easy. I still have the two sticks and string and the diabolo.

Another game was the original ping-pong, now upgraded to a more professional status as table tennis. The net was stretched across the dining table and kept in place by a screw-type vice at either side. The bats were sixteen inches long, nine inches of handle and seven inches of blade which was five inches wide and three-quarters of an inch thick. I know these exact measurements because I still have the original bats impressed with the words ping-pong. The bats are at least seventy years old. Each face of the hollow blade is covered by parchment. I don’t think my sister or I played with them very much but you can still hear the distinctive ping when you strike the ball and the pong when the ball strikes the table. They are still very much capable of further play, but probably not at the furious pace of today’s table tennis.

Sunday afternoons were times for family excursions during the summer months. On several occasions we walked to the paddle-steamers berthed in the New Cut which was ‘over Stoke’. ‘Over Stoke’ meant that you had to cross over the Gipping at Stoke bridge to reach the steamer which left at three o’clock after the pubs closed and sailed down river to Pin Mill to pick up further passengers and then on to Parkestone Quay at Harwich where most of the passengers alighted and visited the quayside shops for plates of oysters, winkles, whelks, shrimps or mussels. Meanwhile the paddle steamer went across river to Felixstowe pier and sometimes on to Walton-on-the-Naze.

A photo looking across grass at a stretch of water. Moored at a jetty is a long, low ship with a tall, straight funnel. A semi-circular shape indicates the position of a paddle wheel.
The paddle steamer Woolwich Belle at Ipswich in 1900. It was used mainly on feeder services from Ipswich and Harwich to Clacton. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

The return journey began at about five o’clock and there was usually music and dancing on the upper deck and the bar below was well patronised – the bar opened as soon as the steamer left the quayside. What interested me most of all was to stand on a platform in the engine-room and watch the pistons rising and falling with accompanying outbursts of steam, and the steady churning of the two paddles and the ringing of the engine-room telegraph as the Captain signalled for one or other paddle to be slowed down, as that was the method of steering the vessel rather than the usual use of a rudder.

This going down river reminds me of the only time my father took me fishing. He hired a rowing boat from the ship yard at Cliff Quay and rowed out to mid-stream down river and threw out the fishing line and it was not long before we had a bite and whatever it was began to tow the boat this way and that so that I got quite worried as to what was happening. Meanwhile Dad was hauling in the fishing line as well as he could and eventually we saw our catch – a wriggling eel about three foot long, it looked bigger to me – which was hauled inboard and then began threshing about in the boat. Dad was trying to hit the eel with the boat’s baling-tin but the more he struck at it the more it thrashed about, and the vessel was rocking about dangerously and the fishing line was in a terrible tangle. I think I was scared stiff and eventually father cut the line and threw the eel overboard and rowed back to the shipyard. That was our only fishing expedition.

Another Sunday excursion – usually a full day out for which we took a picnic lunch – was a wagonette from the Old Cattle market. A wagonette was a four wheeler horse-drawn vehicle where the passengers sat on two seats facing one another – about twenty people or so. We went over Stoke Bridge along the Wherstead Road and the Strand through Freston and Pin Mill and Chelmondiston to Shotley Pier where we disembarked for the day. There was a large naval barracks at Shotley in those days and in the river was the old training ship H.M.S. Ganges.

A panoramic postcard photo of the waterfront. On the left are two two-storey brick buildings. There's a wide almost empty street with one double-decker, open-topped motor bus, and a few people. There's a long narrow, empty pier stretching out into the water. In the distance is an old three-masted sailing ship.
A view of Shotley including the Bristol Arms and the H.M.S. Ganges. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

When we came to a hill and there were four or five hills on the way, men and boys had to get out of the wagonette and help to push it up hill. On the down-hill slopes a metal drag was placed under a rear wheel so the vehicle did not prove too much for the two horses. The drag scoured a trench in the surface of the roadway which was composed of flints – I don’t recall any tarred asphalt or macadamed roads in those days. Whenever a car came by there was a great cloud of dust and the horses had to be calmed down. There was not much for children to do at Shotley except paddle in the river or play in the fields, but we enjoyed the picnic. On the way home in the evening the wagonette was always stopped at the Boot Inn, Freston, and we children had lemonade and biscuits whilst the adults went inside for refreshment. I think some of the most enjoyable part of the trip was the walk home from the Old Cattle Market in the gathering darkness with the lamplighter on his rounds – about the only time my sister and I were out after darkness fell.

A photo of a buysy market with probably more than 100 men, all wearing flat caps or bowler hats. There are various fenced pens, some crowded with sheep. A low building in the background has a clocktower on its roof. The gate posts leading into the market each have a large upturned basket on them.
Ipswich cattle market around 1910. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Mention of the Old Cattle Market reminds me that there was a rollerskating rink there, where the Post Office sorting department is now. This skating rink was also used for professional boxing events and I recall that the Suffolk champion was Phil Suffling – not that I was allowed to see any boxing. There was a second roller skating rink down by the recreation ground near to Portman Road and I became reasonably good at skating.

A photo of inside a large hangar-like building with a high pitched roof supported by many angled and horizontal beams. Nine adults stand on the flat empty floor facing the camera, all wearing roller skates. The men are wearing suits, three with what look like smoking jackets. The three women are in dresses or long skirts, with wide-brimmed hats. An advertisement in the background is for 'Kirby's Mineral Water'.
The Empress skating rink, around the 1910s. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

Occasionally on a Wednesday afternoon if Ipswich Town was playing a home football match at the Portman Road ground my father would take me there – as a young man he had played for Bury St. Edmunds when he was stationed there as a soldier. Of course in those days Ipswich Town was only in the Southern Amateur League, but even then it was supported by the Cobbold family and there is still a John Cobbold as chairman. My sister and I are still shareholders in the Ipswich Town Football Club.

A photo of eleven men in two rows, the front row of five sat on a wooden bench. They're all wearing probably white tops with a wide, pale vertical stripe. Their shorts and socks are a variety of shades.
Ipswich Town Football Club team 1911. (Courtesy David Kindred on Flickr)

§ Postscript

In August 1917, a few months short of his sixteenth birthday, Criss Barrington Gyford entered the Merchant Navy. The following year he enlisted in the Royal Army Service Corps in which he served during the final months of World War One.

After the war he returned to the sea and during the 1920s sailed on a wide variety of ships including those of the P & O Line. In 1932 he married Ethel Florence Roper, a friend of his sister. He became a mature student at London University and after graduation began a second career as a teacher and lecturer in the London area. Meanwhile he was also pursuing a third career in broadcasting and writing, often drawing on his world-wide travels for radio talks, articles and books.

In 1940, as a Royal Naval Reserve officer, he was captain of one of the ‘small boats’, the M.V Lucy, during the Dunkirk evacuation. In later years he was an officer in both the Air Training Corps and the Home Guard. Politically he maintained his parents’ Liberal loyalties, serving as Liberal Party agent, council candidate and constituency president in Twickenham in the 1940s and 1950s.

He retired from teaching in 1960 and enjoyed a long retirement, marred only by the death of his wife in 1980. He died on April 30th 1987, survived by his sister Bessie, his children John and Christine and his grandchildren Philip and Susie.

J.G.


§ You can download a PDF of the typed version of this memoir on the Internet Archive.

It is also available at the Suffolk Archives with some additional material, accession number HD2050:

Gyford Family of Ipswich: ‘Goodbye Victoria’ An Edwardian childhood in Ipswich by Criss Barrington Gyford with copies of related family photographs and documents 20th cent; Six issues of Fourth Form Magazine, Ipswich Secondary School c 1915


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Reading List 2026-09-26

The Quay, Olaveaga, Bilbao by Luis Paret y Alcazar, via WikiArt.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at ASML’s lack of European sales, a California distributed power plant, Starlink as a planetary barometer, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

No essay this week, but a more involved piece about how the AI that powers modern robots works will be out next week.

Housing and Cities

Following the passage of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, manufactured home producer Cavco has unveiled a HUD-code manufactured home without a permanent steel chassis. [GlobeNewswire]

Related, both Texas and Florida passed laws requiring cities to allow the placement of manufactured homes. As of September 1st Texas’ SB 785 requires cities to allow “by right” placement of manufactured homes (meaning that there’s no discretionary approval or review process) in at least one residential district. [Smart Cities Dive] And as of July 1st Florida requires “qualifying off-site constructed” homes to be allowed by right in any zoning district where single family homes are allowed. [HousingWire]

Austin’s recent decline in housing prices apparently isn’t only due to dramatic increase in supply: a fall in demand in 2023 and 2024 also contributed. [Free Range]

Kalshi has a prediction market for whether a permitting reform law will get passed in 2026. Odds are up to almost 80%. I didn’t look close enough at this, this market already resolved in July with “yes”! [Kalshi]

Why young Europeans can’t afford to buy homes. “The OECD data covers the average across 20 EU countries. For example, 60% of people born around 1975 owned a home by age 32. This fell to 58% for the 1980 birth cohort and to 52% for those born in 1985.” [Euronews]

A Census map showing the change in housing for US states between 2020 and 2026. Not much terribly surprising here, though I didn’t expect Washington State to be among the states with a large housing increase. [Census Bureau]

Trump wants his Washington DC arch to be equipped with drones and snipers. [NYT]

Manufacturing

ASML, the European manufacturer of semiconductor lithography machines, says that it doesn’t actually sell any machines in Europe currently because no new fabs are being built there. [NL Times]

The US passed Japan to be the second largest installer of industrial robots in 2025, with 38,400 newly-installed robots against Japan’s 36,200. China is still far ahead of both with 354,000, almost 10x the US. [IFR]

From the annals of the ongoing US power transformer shortage: Hitachi Energy plans to build a $500 million plant in Mississippi that would double its capacity to produce power transformers in the 10 to 160 megavolt-ampere range. [Utility Dive]

China’s progress in chipmaking machine market share over the last year. Looks like maybe a net trend upward in marketshare-weighted terms, though a pretty small one. [CSET]

A teardown of two DJI drones, aimed at shedding some light on how it achieves its impressively low manufacturing costs (and what the US might have to do to compete). “By our estimates, DJI not only sustained exceptionally high hardware margins but also grew them from 72% to 79% between 2019 and 2023. For comparison, Apple, a $4.6 trillion dollar company famous for its supply chain, achieved a 53% gross margin on the iPhone 15 Pro Max.” [Arena Physica]

The death of the small car in the US. Between 1981 and 2025 the average weight of new cars rose from 3200 pounds to over 4400 pounds, and the fraction of new cars that were small passenger cars fell from 80% in 1975 to 34% in 2025. “As of 2026, the traditional small car market has shrunk to a handful of remaining options like the Nissan Sentra and the Kia K4. Every other manufacturer has either killed off small-sized models or upgraded them to midsized cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs).” [World of Systems]

Trump is working on a “massive” deal to import potash (an ingredient in fertilizer manufacturing) from Belarus, likely in the hopes of reducing potash imports from Canada. [Kyiv Independent]

Saudi Arabia launches a line of EVs, Ceer. [AGBI]

Energy

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A Gallery of Hope: The Truth OC’s 26 Best Political Figures of 2026

So a month or so ago, I wrote a post headlined, A GALLERY OF FREAKS: THE TRUTH OC’S 26 WORST POLITICAL FIGURES OF 2026. And, in full transparency, I was gonna end the project right there. I picked out a fleet of awfuls, I did my snarky Substack thing, I felt good about myself—Voilà. Game over.

Then, alas, folks started asking something along the lines of, “So you’re gonna do the 26 best, right?” And, initially, I thought, “Eh, no.” Just too hard, too daunting, too many great people to sort through. But as the requests mounted, I realized this site tends to lean far too negative, without always highlighting the best of the best.

Hence, the post you’re about to read.

Now, an important point to consider: While I did think long and hard about the rankings, it’s sorta like comparing apples to llamas to 8-tracks. Like, what makes someone the best of the best, as opposed to merely one of the best? Is an elected figure, well, bestier (my Substack, my made-up words) than a volunteer? Are media members “political figures”? How about influencers? What makes someone eligible? Or ineligible?

Answer: I don’t know.

To compile this, I sought out the insights of people I like and trust, and even considered whether some Republicans might wind up on the page (one made it—Hugh Nguyen). Ultimately, I hope y’all view this less as anything definitive and more as a celebration of the all the outstanding people who have helped transition Orange County from a Ronald Reagan stronghold to a wondrous purple dreamscape.

Twenty six journeys.

Twenty six pathways.

Twenty six kick-ass political peeps.

Welcome to the resistance …

1. Amy Stevens, Volunteer organizer for OC Indivisible Coalition and member rep for OC Working Families Party

There is a solid chance you have never heard of Stevens—not to be confused with the Amy Stevens running for city council in Lake Forest (and a very worthy public figure as well) or the 4,565,321 other Amy Stevens populating the globe. Like the “Vanilla Sky” actress. And the retail planning executive. And the Flowboarding world champion.

It is, however, very likely you have seen her.

This Amy Stevens is everywhere. Truly, e-v-e-r-y-w-h-e-r-e. Name a local political event, and she’s either organizing, helping organize, attending or spreading the word. I cannot overstate this point: She is all energy, all heart, all hustle, all over the place, as well as a ferocious advocate for Democratic candidates and policies.

Best of all, there’s no ego. This is about righteousness, and fighting for democracy and—oftentimes—having her son tag along to help. For me, just watching her tireless pursuit of justice has been a motivator and an inspiration. Or, put different: Amy Stevens is 100 percent in.

What could be better?

###

2. Mike Levin, U.S. Representative for California’s 49th congressional district

I’m not gonna lie—I was an early Mike Levin skeptic. Not because of anything he did, but, well—politicians. So many are kinda gross, kinda compromised, kinda used to talking from both sides of the mouth. They’re just exhausting and suck the oxygen out of the room.

But the more I’ve gotten to see Mike in action, and know him, the more I’m reminded that there are still decent and well-intended public servants.

You can read up on Mike’s pursuits here, but an under-appreciated element of the job is base-level accessibility. Hell, look at Young Kim, who makes appearances as often as the Ducks win the Stanley Cup (sorry, kids). Mike, on the other hand, is unusually available. To Dems, to Republicans, to independents. He understands that representatives, cough, represent. And while so many of his peers hide from their constituents, Mike is there.

It’s a special quality.

###

3. Louise Herbert/Fran Sdao/Linda Verraster/Kim Anderson: Leaders of Democratic Women of South Orange County

Shortly after the crushing 2024 presidential election, I attended a local political meeting where the members kept snapping their fingers as a form of encouragement and unity. And I understand it’s, like, a response to someone stating a powerful message, but—Jesus Christ, I hated it. H-a-t-e-d it. It just feels like we (collectively, as Democrats) snap our fingers way too often, but refuse to break out the hammers and do some real damage.

Well, the Democratic Women of South Orange County break shit and fundraise like champions.. Anderson and Verraster are co-presidents, Herbert is the vice president and Sdao is the political advisor—and the four are fearless, rugged, unintimidated and eager to kick ass. Within a fairly brief span, the DWSOC has grown from grass and pebbles to the most lethally impactful political operation in Orange County.

If you’re a Democrat, and you need to win an election down here, they’re the first place you go (well, after stopping here).

###

4. Chris Kluwe: Candidate for Assembly District 72

Bro got arrested at a Huntington Beach City Council meeting, then lost his job as a football coach—all because he knows what he’s fighting for (democracy, decency), and won’t stop. As we speak, Chris is running against the dark lord of hellfire (Gracey Vander Mark) for an Assembly slot, and after a little bit of a slow start he’s really gotten the hang of this campaigning thing. I feel like I’ve come to know Chris fairly well by now, and he’s just … real. There’s no bullshit, no air of entitlement, no expectations of splendor. You can tell the Orange County Republicans are nervous, because they’re spending a lot on the QAnon-identifying Gracey.

Also, a perk: Chris doesn’t need this. He has money. He has fame (he’s a former NFL player). There’s no great self-payoff here—except he gets to help California and battle back the idiots.

Plus, I hear falls in Sacramento are lovely.

###

5. Tiffany Ackley: Member of the Aliso Viejo City Council

Think of things you’d never, ever, ever wanna do. Examples: Pluck out all your nasal hairs. Lick Donald Trump’s face. Run naked across Yankee Stadium while singing Debbie Gibson’s “Electric Youth.” Eat your mother in law’s tuna meat loaf. Eat your mother in law’s homemade vegetarian chopped liver. Eat your mother in law’s …

You get the idea.

Pick anything—and it wouldn’t be nearly as bad as serving on the Aliso Viejo City Council, where Ackley finds herself surrounded by (mostly) boobs, idiots and idiotic boobs. And yet, to attend a meeting is to watch a woman of profound intelligence and integrity bring her A Game. Personally, observing Ackley beat back efforts to remove the Pride Flag from City Hall was the stuff of masters. Seriously, Mike Munzing didn’t know what hit him.

It was glorious—as is Ackley.

###

6. Katrina Foley, Orange County Fifth District Supervisor

So, as was the case with Mike Levin, I didn’t have the initial warm fuzzies about Foley when we first met. But then—damn. Seriously, damn. I defy you to find a local political figure with a greater grasp on a greater number of issues. Foley (weirdly?) loves meetings, loves talking to citizens, loves explaining why she’s correct (but open to hearing other viewpoints). Is she brash? A bit. Is she confident? Sure. But I’ve never heard anyone better break down the highs, lows and complications of Dana Point Harbor developmental issues.

Plus, she’s running for re-election against an absolute lightweight who has no business going for Foley’s slot.

It shouldn’t be close.

###

7. Connor Traut: Buena Park mayor and candidate for O.C. Supervisor

What John Ossoff is to Georgia, Traut has the potential to be for Orange County. A mere lad of 32, Traut is young, energetic, engaged, accomplished and something of a political prodigy. He’s extremely good at communicating points, and mixes understanding of issues with a hard-to-attain likability. About a year ago, having never heard of Traut, I attended a meeting in Buena Park and listened to him speak. In a word: Special. In two words: Special and gifted.

If this dude isn’t governor within two decades, it’s only because he got bored and decided to team up with Mike Trout on Trout ‘n’ Traut’s Pier Tavern and Fishing Depot.

He’s that good.

###

8. Amy Capelle: Executive Director of WAVE

Nothing to see here—other than yet another bad-ass, ever-energized, bull-in-a-china shop Orange County woman busting her ass to help progressives get elected. Along with the leaders of Democratic Women of South Orange County, Capelle and her WAVE crew are the nucleus of Democratic Party growth in OC.

On a side note, I would love to see the different operations start working together with greater frequency. I know there’s ego, I know there are myriad priorities, etc … etc. But the Republicans seem to be far better at picking five messages and, collectively, addressing them on repeat.

So, Amy Capelle, do your thing.

It’s your gift.

###

9 . Gina Clayton-Tarvin, Ocean View School District Board President

There are thugs, there are bad-ass thugs and then there are absolute bad-ass thug mofos.

Meet Gina Clayton-Tarvin.

Back in 2025, Gina took to Instagram to slam Butch Twining, Huntington Beach City Council member (and Kirk Cameron’s body double in “Unstoppable”) after he took part in a wildly stupid Charlie Kirk rally at the Huntington Beach Pier. Twining sued Gina for $25 million in damages, and she countered with an anti-SLAPP motion (According to the Daily Pilot: “Designed to protect those exercising their 1st Amendment rights of free speech.”). Well, not only was Twining smacked down, but he was forced to pay nearly $120,000 in Gina’s attorney fees.

Hell, yes.

We need fearless brawlers.

Gina is a fearless brawler.

###

10. Cynthia Vasquez: Member of the Mission Viejo City Council

Watch enough meetings of the Mission Viejo City Council, and it becomes clear very quickly that:

A. The Republican members of the council want nothing to do with Vasquez.

B. Vasquez isn’t there to make friends.

Even though the council’s MAGA lemmings pay Vasquez little mind and even less respect (the refusal to let her serve as mayor—a rotating position—is shameful), the holder of an MBA from the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois keeps charging ahead. She is a major organizer in the city’s Mission Viejo Pride events, and was the key voice in the much-needed installation of a refuge lane on Marguerite Parkway at La Sierra Drive.

###

11. Carol Nohra Crane: Member, Newport-Mesa Unified School Board

In Newport, where pockets are stuffed with gold coins and the average automobile includes the letters B, M and W in its name, it’s easy to be a goober school board member who focuses on surface-level bullshit.

Crane, though, is the real deal. She initially ran during COVID, and won as a reasonable, kind voice midway through crazed times. She’s maintained that sense of compassion and empathy, which is needed now more than ever. Oh, and she has an amazing back story—“My family and I were political refugees, having fled a dangerous religious civil war in Lebanon in 1975,” she told Amy Senk. “We settled in the San Francisco Bay Area. I was 12 years old and vividly recall the economic hardships of starting from scratch. We were a family of five living in a scantily furnished apartment. Since we couldn’t afford a car, we walked everywhere. My mom waitressed at a local French restaurant, and my father was a laborer in a meat-packing company. Within three years, he rose to become the senior controller of that company. Within five years, we had purchased our first home. Within 10 years, my siblings and I had graduated from top colleges. We had fulfilled the American Dream.”

###

12. Erika Hennon Rule, Writer of “A Public Record for Laguna Schools”

From the “Not all superheroes wear capes” universe, I bring you the amazing Hennon Rule, a Laguna Beach parent who—out of frustration, anger and necessity—started up a truly outstanding and important Substack, “A Public Record for Laguna Schools.”

And if you’re thinking, “Meh—Laguna Beach is wealthy and liberal, so how bad can it be?” … answer: Pretty fucking bad. According to Hennon Rule’s dogged reporting, the district is overwhelmed by a perfect brew of incompetence and corruption. It all sorta feels like a mid-1980s soap opera, with greed and assholeness blended into every episode. Don’t believe me? Check out this eye-catching entry, headlined, DEE PERRY’S LONG FIGHT WITH POWER AT LBUSD. Here, for me as a journalist, is the money segment: “For this piece, I reviewed Board meetings back to 2016, and Public Records Act requests from nearly the same period. I read contemporary coverage instead of relying on later retellings. I examined Dee’s federal lawsuit, the District’s response, and the courts’ decisions. I also reviewed old communications involving people who were in the audience then and now sit next to Dee on the Board.”

As is the case with Chris Kluwe, it would be easy for Erika to kick back, enjoy an iced coffee and watch the waves crash.

But that’s not what civic-mindedness is.

That’s not what makes greatness.

###

13. Cottie Petrie-Norris, Assembly member repping the 73rd district

Find someone with a bad word to say about Petrie-Norris and I’ll find you a douche in a MAGA hat kneeling before half-naked photos of David Duke while waiting for his Trump wristwatch to arrive via USPS.

First elected to the State Assembly in 2018, Petrie-Norris is—like Katrina Foley—one of those public servants who rolls up her sleeves and digs into stuff with an endearingly wonkish tenacity. Unlike too many on the right here in California, she’s particularly focused on issues of energy affordability, highlighted by AB 1301 Utility Bill Responsibility.

Also, in a past life she served on the Housing and Human Services Committee of Laguna Beach. And you have to be really committed to serve on the Housing and Human Services Committee of Laguna Beach.

###

14. Krista Castellanos: Member of the Capo Unified School Board

Admittedly, there’s some regional bias here, because Krista serves on my local school board. But as Capo Unified is infiltrated by a flock of Moms For Liberty freaks and weirdos, Krista is, without fail, the voice of reason and resiliency.

It’s actually a bit entertaining, attending Capo meetings and watching Krista’s head slowly explode as Lisa Davis and Jennifer Adnams (combined IQ: -14) spew nonsense about nonsense about nonsense. Like, you sorta wonder what happens when a functioning human brain absorbs 400,000 pounds of right-wing goop. Will it blow up? Cave in? Turn to slime? Join a KISS tribute band?

Ultimately/amazingly, Krista keeps her cool and urges normalcy.

###

15. James Black: Deputy Director for Congressman Dave Min

This is a strange one, because why pick a staffer over the actual congressman? Well, by now we all know Min is fantastic and smart and available (hell, you can consider him a part of this list, and place him wherever you’d like), but how many readers are aware of Black, a highly regarded UC Irvine grad who has gained great respect and note for being smart, savvy and available? To quote a friend of mine who spends much time on OC politics: “He cares, he’s heavily involved in the community, and is a phenomenal staffer.”

It’s weird, because so many people in Black’s shoes come and go—forgotten like yesterday’s McDonald’s order. But something about this man resonates with Orange County governmental types.

Maybe it’s the tie?

No.

It’s not the tie.

###

16. Norberto Santana, Jr., Voice of OC editor and publisher

If I’m placing bets on this, Norberto will hate being noted on this list. Why? Because he’s neither a politician nor a political figure. Instead, he’s the founding publisher and editor-in-chief for Voice of OC—which (with the decline of the Register and the Los Angeles Times, as well as the disappearance of OC Weekly) is the best place for all your local political news. I mean that, as a journalist and political observer: My website is cute and fun and (I hope) worthwhile, but what Norberto and his (mostly young) staffers do is the lord’s work.

Best of all, Norberto and his team are thorough, balanced and fair—refreshing attributes in 2026.

###

17. Lita Robinow, Chair of Democrats of Orange County Political Action Committee

When you hear the word PAC, you think of some ultra-rich group far removed from the reality of day-to-day life most of us poor schlubs experience. Well, that’s not DemPAC OC and that’s 100-percent not the outstanding Lita Rabinow.

Lita and her group get together once a month by holding a potluck (don’t eat the seafood salad) and inviting local elected officials to speak. They all chip in what they can and give money to good progressives in nationwide races. There’s something beautiful and authnetic about this group. They’re good people who are pissed off and overflowing with justified hatred for Donald Trump, and are doing their part to make an impact.

Lita is the champ.

###

18. Dr. Letitia Clark, Former Tustin Mayor/Current Mayoral Candidate

Don’t call it a comeback—Clark has been here for years. But the former Tustin mayor (and eight-year member of the City Council) is running to reclaim her seat from the incumbent, a typical numbskull conservative Republican named Austin Lumbard, who four years ago ran an unforgivably nasty campaign.

During Clark’s time in the big chair, more than 2,000 new homes were approved in Tustin Legacy neighborhoods, which is no small potatoes in an ongoing crisis. She’s known to be insanely accessible and agreeable, and even authored a children’s book titled (appropriately), “Mommy is the Mayor.”

We need a sequel.

###

19. H. Shaina Colover: Judge of the Superior Court of Orange County

Originally appointed to the Orange County Superior Court by Gov. Jerry Brown, Colover is a former actress (and theater arts major at UCSD) who later attended law school at the University of San Francisco.

On the bench, she’s known to be fair, compassionate, introspective and smart. She also wins huge points here for a moment that took place this past July, when she found that Mari Barke, Orange County Board of Education Trustee and walking embodiment of a freeze-dried zit, violated the state’s Political Reform Act by failing to disclose millions of dollars in income and assets on required financial disclosure forms. The headline, JUDGE CALLS OUT OC EDUCATION TRUSTEE FOR FAILING TO REPORT MILLIONS IN INCOME should be tattooed on every liberal back in Orange County.

Y’all go first …

###

20. Stephanie Oddo: Member of the Laguna Niguel City Council

If there is no glory in local politics, there’s really no glory in being the lone liberal voice on a city council. Yet Oddo, like Vasquez in Mission Viejo, keeps plugging away, plugging away, plugging away. She was a major voice in the city’s new bike lanes, and pushed the effort to make Laguna Niguel a Tree City USA.

And, bruh, do we have trees!

Best of all, Stephanie is friggin’ ubiquitous in these parts. Like, turn left—she’s there. Turn right—she’s there. Have a question? She answers. Have a complaint? She listens. It’s the most important quality in a council member—and Oddo owns it.

Not for nothing, she somehow gets along with her colleagues—even Ray Gennawey, the human embodiment of a stale Twinkie.

###

21. Mary Carter: Long-time Laguna Beach Democratic Club member

So way back in 2021, Carter was named a Volunteer of the Year by the California Democratic Party … and she’s just as engaged and inspiring as ever.

It’s easy, these days, to feel demoralized, down, heartbroken, lost. But check out Carter’s Instagram feed, and you’ll see a woman who refuses to kick back and watch “Love is Blind.” She is the model of volunteerism and civic mindedness.

Also, it’s highly important for folks like Carter to be recognized. They’re the ones making signs, knocking on doors, urging neighbors, giving rides to the polls. It’s easy to be in the spotlight. It’s certainly easy to snag notoriety and a bit of regional fame and maybe even a prime parking space outside a governmental structure.

But Carter? She has none of that.

Just elbow grease. And heart.

###

22. Michelle Antenesse: Chair of the Aliso Niguel Democratic Club

Psst—a secret for all you kids out there: Heading a local political organization sorta sucks.

It’s long hours, no pay, no glory, no perks. You’re begging people to attend, and usually failing. You eternally complain about the lack of youthful participation, then stare out at a half-empty room occupied by silver heads of thinning hair and the familiar scent of Bengay and prune juice.

It is a nightmarish, soul-sucking hellscape of the first degree, and only a practitioner of self-flagellation would embark on such a journey.

Orrrrrr … someone like Michelle Antenesse.

I’ve had the pleasure of getting to know Michelle these past bunch of years, and while her task is no easy one (rally Democrats in a fairly conservative town), she’s always hustling, always working, always plucking volunteers, demanding action, inviting speakers. She’s one of the most honorable folks in politics, and a very worthy member of this list.

Plus, we have the same taste in coffee shops.

###

23. Hugh Nguyen: Orange County Clerk-Recorder

If one were to rank America’s sexiest jobs, you might have, oh, swimsuit model as No. 1, actor as No. 2, singer as No. 3. You’d follow with pro athletes, superstar attorneys, television hosts, news anchors, celebrity dentists … and near the bottom, right below Cardboard Company Director and Fixer O’ Toilets, you’d probably list, ahem, Orange County Clerk-Recorder.

Yawn.

That said …

If you’re gonna have an Orange County Clerk-Recorder (and we motherfuckin’ do), there’s no better dude than Nguyen, who was born in Vietnam in 1967 and came to America when he was but a lad of 7 (amazing side story: When he was young, Nguyen was told his father was an American soldier who had been killed in action. Eight years ago, he found his dad, alive and living in Tennessee).

To quote the OC Recorder, “Hugh was awarded the Leadership in Public Service Award from the Orange County Business Council in which he was recognized for his implementation of numerous tax-cutting and streamlining initiatives such as the expansion of the South County branch office, Hitched at Honda Center, and reduction of passport photo fees.”

Talk to anyone in the know, and they’ll rave about Hugh’s professionalism and competence.

So who needs LeBron or Stella Lefty or Kate Upton?

We’ve got Hugh Nguyen.

###

24. Joanna Weiss, Whitney Gomez: Hosts of the Vitamin OC podcast

In a just world, where dogs live to 100 and Arte Moreno mops the Burger King grease pit and farts smell like cotton candy, the Vitamin OC podcast is the local blow-up media entity of 2026, and everyone within earshot listens and Weiss and Gomez make trillions of dollars, all of which they donate to the future impeachment proceedings of Donald Trump.

Alas, existence is rocky, and the Vitamin OC podcast is a still relatively small operation that’s growing at a steady pace and does its all to enlighten locals on politics and the Democratic candidates trying to find awareness.

I. Love. It.

Loooooove it.

I love the energy Joanna and Whitney bring. I love the wide range of guests. I love the probing questions, the genuine curiosity, the desire to make Orange County a better place to live.

I can tell you, starting a show from scratch takes work and time and a whole lot of patience.

Bravo to these two women for doing it.

###

25. Rick Erkeneff, Director of the South Coast Water District

First elected in 2012, the neatly goateed Erkeneff (who reps Division 2—which includes the communities of Del Avion/Del Obispo, Dana Knolls and San Juan Capistrano) was voted in for his fourth term in 2024—which means he’s the OG of H2O.

And, to be blunt, the dude’s superpower is his ability to break down water issues for the average Orange County tax payer. It’s actually remarkable. The tales are myriad of folks approaching Erkeneff with either anger or bewilderment or both—and leaving with a nod and a reasonable grasp of local water situations. Plus, this portion of his official bio is the cure to 2026 awfulness: “Rick's optimism and inspiration stem from his collaboration with diverse teams. He firmly believes that varied perspectives and expertise not only enrich the decision-making process but also lead to more balanced, sustainable outcomes. Inspired by the rhythm of the ocean and the tranquility of nature, Rick brings a unique blend of creativity and analytical skills to his role, consistently aiming for excellence and clear communication.”

If you love water (and who doesn’t?), Erkeneff is the Goat.

###

26. Arianna Barrios: Orange City Council member, mayoral candidate

I sat down with Barrios several months ago, and came away wildly impressed. Like many well-intended political figures who find themselves thrust into action, Barrios hasn’t spent her life dreaming of running for mayor. Nah—she views it as her obligation, especially after delving into Orange’s awful budget situation, which feels like an approaching doomsday that none of her peers grasp or appreciate.

Barrios is competent and compassionate and an Orange lifer. She’s also the underdog running against an incumbent whose time has passed.

Blue wave, meet Arianna …

#TOC

September 25, 2026

I learned late this afternoon that, in addition to being Dolly Parton Day, today is National Lobster Day, honoring the cultural and economic history of the lobster industry. That industry thrives in Maine because of unique conditions in the water offshore where the cold Labrador Current and the warm Gulf Stream mix over the shallow continental shelf, creating one of the richest habitats for marine life on the planet.

Lobsters have been vital in the creation of Maine’s coastal communities, but the industry’s current place of pride is recent. Until the mid–twentieth century, lobster was considered poor man’s food. Before then, it was not lobster but fish that shaped society on the coast of New England.

Fish were central to the English settlement of the North American continent. In the 200 years between 1300 and 1500 CE, fish were a limited resource and brought sky-high prices in Europe. As the fish in the North Sea became scarcer in the late 1400s, fishermen and explorers began to push into the Atlantic. There, they found such a bonanza of fish in the nutrient-rich water that scholars have called its discovery and the trade it sparked the “Fish Revolution.” Cod, especially, but also haddock and hake, concentrated on the Grand Banks off Newfoundland.

A member of the crew with Italian John Cabot, who was sailing for the English crown, noted in 1497 that there were so many cod on the Grand Banks that they “can be taken not only with nets but with fishing-baskets.” In 1502 the first recorded landing of Atlantic cod in Europe fetched £180, equivalent to about £1.2 million in 2016, with a buying power at the time of just shy of £76 million, close to $100 million today.

Fishing meant big money, and British fishermen were among those who tried their hand in the fog of the Grand Banks, making an annual trip to toss their hooks overboard. They beheaded and gutted their catch, splitting each fish in half like a book, salted the fish, and then dried them on shore. By 1600 they had moved into the Gulf of Maine, where they landed in places like Monhegan Island and Damariscove, where they dried the fish until they were hard before taking their catch back to Europe.

As European fishermen landed in North America, they brought with them European diseases for which the Indigenous populations had no immunities. The tribes were wiped out, so that when the Pilgrims arrived in 1620—on Cape Cod—they found a land so rich and yet depopulated that they believed God had prepared it for them.

The fish trade continued to be so important to New Englanders that almost two centuries later, when their new nation negotiated for its independence, the first thing leaders demanded after independence and national boundaries was continued access to the fisheries.

On September 3, 1783, negotiators signed the Treaty of Paris officially ending the Revolutionary War between Great Britain and the United States. The Preamble of the document promised that King George III and the United States of America would “forget all past misunderstandings and differences that have unhappily interrupted the good correspondence and friendship which they mutually wish to restore.”

The first article of the treaty contained the king’s acknowledgment that the thirteen states that made up the new United States were “free, sovereign, and independent.”

The second article established the boundaries of the new nation.

The third article, which came even before those protecting debts and calling for the return of confiscated property, protected the rights of American fishermen to “take fish of every kind on the Grand Bank, and on all the other banks of Newfoundland; also in the [gulf] of St. Lawrence, and at all other places in the sea, where the inhabitants of both countries used at any time heretofore to fish.”'

[Photo by my favorite lobsterman, Buddy Poland.]

—

Notes:

https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/treaty-of-paris

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/jul/31/fish-stocks-nature-canada-editorial

Poul Holma, Francis Ludlowa, Cordula Scherera, Charles Travisa , Bernard Allairea, Cristina Britoa, Patrick W. Hayes, J. Al Matthews, Kieran J. Rankin, Richard J. Breen, Robert Legg, Kevin Lougheed, John Nicholls, The North Atlantic Fish Revolution (ca. AD 1500) (University of Washington, 2018).

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A Hard Sell

Early today, US District Judge Timothy Kelly granted the request of media outlets to stop Trump’s order banning members of their organizations from the White House, Kelly ordered the credentials of 78 journalists restored immediately but the White House continued to deny White House access to reporters from CNN, MS NOW, and Politico, While they were allowed in after the judge ordered the administration to respond, CNN and MS NOW were then blocked from access to the White House state dinner with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Trump’s response was to issue claims to try to convince voters he is winning but that is a hard sell, The Trump administration’s crackdown on immigrants was stopped by a federal appeals court, whereupon Solicitor General Sauer asked the Supreme Court to step in to permit renditions to third countries, A GAO report found that ICE had not figured out how to spend the $45 billion that Congress gave it last year and it has wasted tens of millions of taxpayer dollars, In California, 650,000 ballots were confiscated by Republican sheriff Chad Bianco, The California Supreme Court ordered him to return the ballots, Trump’s claims of voter fraud took a hit as the claim that almost 16,000 noncitizens were on the voter roles in Nevada proved to be completely false, Trump’s approval rating continues to drop, Trump is running an ad, which was paid for by the US government, Democratic lawmakers are demanding that it be taken down, and that it is government propaganda more fitting for North Korea than the US.

To read this letter, click here:

Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Spotify

You can also find Heather:
YouTube
Bluesky
Instagram
Facebook
Threads
TikTok

Links 9/25/26

Links for you. Science:

This Is a Five-Alarm Fire for Medical Research
More than 1 in 10 US healthcare workers report ongoing long-COVID symptoms, study finds
America’s oldest natural history museum is closing this week — but not without a fight
Anthropic is operating a lab that conducts biology experiments
White House Backtracks on Plan to Exert New Control Over N.I.H. Grants
Delays in Covid shots for kids is latest bid by Trump officials to restrict vaccines
AI solved one of math’s hardest problems. Humanity learned nothing (so far)

Other:

Stephen Miller’s MAGA Terror Campaign Exposed by Damning New Leaks
How President Trump Broke the Kennedy Center
Susan Collins’s Husband Worked for the Lobbyist Running Her Super PAC
3 myths about working from home, debunked
Kennedy Drew $4 Million in Book Advances From Publisher Who Also Monetized MAHA
AI Safety Is Mostly A Sex Cult In Berkeley, California (this is interesting, but needs to be read carefully because there is a lot of supposition)
Speak at Your Own Risk
Election of the Day: Isle of Man
Trump aides explore attaching president’s name to Ford’s Theatre
Using AI, a professor wrote 200 papers this year. Researchers are alarmed.
“What Kind of Person Would a City Like Wickhills Produce?”: A Conversation With Premee Mohamed (Wickhills is a very good book)
We Now Know the Word That’s Going to Bury Donald Trump This November
Stuck
Is Writing An Essay An Appropriate Punishment For Gang Rape? Cornell Is About To Find Out!
Treat AI Like a Normal Crisis
The openly gay candidate’s sex life is news. But this isn’t? Chris Gallant’s 16-year-old BDSM photos became a national story. The curious living arrangement of two powerful MAGA Republicans gets a very different treatment.
Richard Hanania Doesn’t Even Try to Hide His Male Supremacism. Hanania is a reminder of the dangers of rehabilitating extremist intellectuals.
OpenAI’s A.I. Tried Breaching 4 Other Targets, Without Prompting
Converse CEO Pledges Review Over Ad Critics Say Evoked KKK
MAGA candidate fumes after his relative deported: ‘That’s not right’ (LePage in Maine)
The Revolution Has Been Televised—It’s About To Fail. The task for Democrats now is to keep the wounded, zombie version of it from encroaching further or clawing its way back to power.
Battle of Hospital A.I. vs. Insurer A.I. Is Pushing Medical Costs Higher
Trump using federal government money to pay for campaign ads
Poll: 70% of Florida voters oppose ending school vaccine mandates; 40% less likely to back Byron Donalds, Ashley Moody
The Data Center Guy Wants This Election to be About Trans People
RFK Jr.’s soaring bodyguard costs covered with money for fighting infant deaths: WSJ
Whatever Happened to Franklin Park’s Restaurant?
Trump’s ‘big deal’ on Greenland is more of the same
Donald the Deadbeat Does Diesel. Trump gets ready to stiff more contractors
Fairfax County to start electronic monitoring for noisy vehicles in early 2027

Organ trafficking research

 Frederike Ambagtsheer is the principal investigator of a Dutch project conducting organ trafficking research, whose website discusses their work:

welcome to organ trafficking research

This platform presents research projects on the human organ trade that are conducted by Erasmus MC's Organ Trafficking Research Group. We further provide information for interested audiences (e.g. students, researchers, law enforcement, law -and policy-makers, etc) about the complexities of this crime and the responses there-to.

The organ trafficking research group is based at Erasmus MC's Department of Internal Medicine, Section Nephrology and Kidney Transplantation in Rotterdam(opens in new tab), The Netherlands. This department is part of the recently established Erasmus MC Transplant Institute (opens in new tab)which houses one of the largest kidney transplantation centers in Europe.

...

what we do

We are an enthusiastic and dedicated team of researchers that conduct empirical research on different facets of organ trade and trafficking. Our research is structured into various projects. Methods include a mix of qualitative and quantitative research strategies including systematic literature reviews, surveys, ethnographic research, crime scripting and network analysis.

We conduct research in countries across the globe and we focus on all stages of the organ trading chain, including organ buying, selling, the organisation of illegal transplants and law enforcement responses. We also explore alternative measures such as allowing financial rewards for organ donation. In addition, we advise governments and (inter)national organizations on how to address organ trade problems.

Our research is funded by organisations including the European Commission, the European Research Council and the Dutch Research Council (NWO)."

 

 

Globular star cluster Globular star cluster


Should you text more?

Here, in five waves of panel data (N = 1,966 US adults), we examined associations between life satisfaction and self-reported use of ten common social technologies measured every 3 months on a six-point frequency scale from ‘I did not use’ to ‘multiple times daily’. At this measurement level and timescale, Bayesian and frequentist random-intercept cross-lagged panel models showed little credible evidence that any social technology use predicts subsequent life satisfaction. In the reverse direction, increases in life satisfaction predicted only modest increases in (video) calling in select demographic groups. In analyses comparing different people, frequency of texting was associated with higher life satisfaction, whereas frequency of YouTube and TikTok use was associated with lower life satisfaction. Despite limited ability to detect within-person change due to temporal stability in responses, the absence of cross-lagged effects is informative: there is scant evidence of a meaningful relationship between social technology use and subsequent life satisfaction.

That is from a new Nature article by Kostadin Kushlev, Kibum Moon, Matt Motyl, Nathanael J. Fast & Juliana Schroeder. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post Should you text more? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Friday 25 September 1663

Lay pretty long in bed, and so to my office all the morning till by and by called out by Sir J. Minnes and Sir W. Batten, with them by water to Deptford, where it of a sudden did lighten, thunder, and rain so as we could do nothing but stay in Davis’s house, and by and by Sir J. Minnes and I home again by water, and I home to dinner, and after dinner to the office, and there till night all alone, even of my clerks being there, doing of business, and so home and to bed.

Read the annotations

A doomsday scenario for American AI

That is the title of my latest Free Press column, here is the closing bit:

Sick and elderly Americans will go to Chinese companies for their AI-invented and AI-tested medical devices and drugs. America still will be a wealthy country, so China will charge the highest prices possible, yet prioritize Chinese citizens for treatment. Large numbers of Americans will die prematurely, at least compared to a world in which many of those innovations came from the U.S. My colleague Alex Tabarrok has coined the phrase invisible graveyard to refer to these lost lives, invisible because we do not observe the state of the world where they get treatment readily and cheaply. Over time, this invisible graveyard will swell into the many millions.

Finally, we will ask what went wrong.

The postmortem will be this. Many people panicked about the possibility of strong AI models killing us all. That fear was not based on peer-reviewed scientific research showing a high chance of doom, nor was doom indicated in any market prices of the time, including measures of risk. It was a story, just like this is a story, and it was spread on social media. The key point of the doom story was that, if America keeps the No. 1 spot in AI models, the models will be so strong they will do us all in, or lead to unimaginable catastrophes. We were too afraid to have America keep the lead, forgetting that if truly destructive AI is our fate, the doomer scenario can come from Chinese AI as well.

Today, we cannot say for sure that the AI doom scenario is false. But is it a story we wish to live by? Is belief in it a good way to protect and extend life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness? Will it help us much, or for long, if it is Chinese AI that turns on us and does us in?

In my view, successful societies accept challenges and meet them. Solving problems, bit by bit, is the best way to ensure that we have the capabilities to meet big and truly existential risks, should those risks come along. Debating the chances of our doom, ex ante, on a highly speculative basis, is unlikely to provide the same kind of expertise and talent cultivation. It is instead more likely to demoralize and immobilize us.

So which America are we going to choose?

Recommended, do read the whole thing.

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Note on 24th September 2026

The more time I spend working with coding agents, the more convinced I am that they make software engineering even harder.

We can do amazing things with them, but unlocking their full potential requires extraordinary discipline and knowledge.

Tags: coding-agents, ai, llms

Two Screenshots, Minutes Apart

Day Off

Also not sure about podcast for tomorrow. But primer on interest rates coming.

Quoting John Gruber

Muse is getting a lot of attention — including mine — because it’s both groundbreaking technically (each user gets their own entire persistent Linux VM running in Meta’s cloud) and because it’s packaged in an easy-to-install easy-to-use way. It’s literally presented as a cute mascot. It’s the first consumer-accessible agentic AI system, and Meta has truly done an amazing job with that. But it’s a genuinely open question whether consumers have any understanding what this means. If you buy a power saw that can cut your fingers off, you are almost certainly aware that you are buying a power saw that can sever your fingers. [...] I don’t think people realize how powerful — and thus dangerous — Muse is, especially if it’s running on your Mac.

— John Gruber, Muse Looks Cute, but Looks are Deceiving

Tags: meta, ai, llms, general-agents, generative-ai, john-gruber, muse-agent, muse

Northern Gannet, Great Blue Heron, California Brown Pelican

Northern Gannet

Great Blue Heron

California Brown Pelican

Northern Gannet, Great Blue Heron, California Brown Pelican, in Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, CA, US, CA

New 200-800mm Canon EF lens got me my best photo of Morris yet. They really like hanging out under that sign in the harbor!

Tags: photography, wildlife

On Anthropic’s AI Misuse Report

Earlier this month, Anthropic published a long report detailing all of the Claude misuses it detected. Daniel Meissler usefully summarized the report into 117 findings.

A few of the highlights:

  • AI agents increasingly handled reconnaissance, exploitation, data theft, propaganda production, surveillance workflows, and research while humans selected targets, set goals, and reviewed important outputs.
  • The report describes attackers using AI to industrialize credential theft, cloud compromise, phishing, vulnerability research, and the extraction of sensitive data from downstream organizations.
  • Influence operations used persistent agent memory, fake news sites, fabricated journalists, synthetic personas, political profiling, and large-scale multilingual content, although high content volume often produced little genuine engagement.
  • Surveillance and repression cases included automated dossiers, biometric and communications analysis, transnational targeting, coercive recruitment, and systems that continued operating locally after model access was revoked.
  • Biological and weapons cases show dual-use risk: AI supported advanced scientific and military work, but the report generally doesn’t establish completed biological weapons or operational battlefield deployment.

Friday Squid Blogging: Participatory Squid Dissection in October in Tennessee

I feel like someone who reads this blog will want to go to this:

Families are invited to dive into the fascinating world of marine biology during an exciting, hands-on Family Squid Dissection at the Hands-On Science Center. Designed for curious learners of all ages, this unique experience combines an interactive lesson with the opportunity to explore the anatomy and adaptations of real ocean life.

[…]

During the guided squid dissection, each family will work together to examine a squid up close, exploring its organs, structures, and specialized features. The experience provides a memorable opportunity for children and adults to see firsthand how the anatomy of a squid helps it survive in its underwater environment.

If you go, take pictures.

As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven’t covered.

Blog moderation policy.

★ I’ll Wait

It’s Friday, and Muse is still the #1 app in the iOS App Store — that’s a full week in the top spot. Who knows if it’s a flash in the pan or not. (Remember Clubhouse? Sora?) But at the moment it’s clearly a hit. It certainly helps that Meta itself is promoting Muse heavily on its own channels like Instagram and Facebook.

The Muse iOS app is sandboxed — because it has to be. So that’s the only version I’m personally tinkering with. But the Mac app is the more powerful one, because, well, it lets Muse drive your Mac. The fact that the Muse Mac app is so powerful is why it has to be downloaded from the web. It’s not in the Mac App Store because apps that do what the Muse Mac app does aren’t permitted in the Mac App Store — or are only permitted with hard-to-get entitlements. There are a lot of good reasons why good Mac developers have long been frustrated by those rules. (Users too.) But the upside of Apple’s restrictive Mac App Store policies is that users can blindly install apps from the Mac App Store and trust that those apps cannot run amok on their system.

The way I think about running an agentic AI on my Mac is simple. I would never let an unknown person use my Mac. Not even for a minute, not even with me watching them. Let alone letting them use it nonstop, without my watching them. I’d be uncomfortable letting even a trusted friend use my Mac, logged into my user account. So why would I let an AI robot, no matter the source? It doesn’t even get to the point of my considering Meta as Muse’s creator. I wasn’t tempted an iota to try OpenClaw, and I’m not tempted to try Muse on my Mac. On a Mac, maybe. But not my Mac.

Same thing for granting Muse — running in the cloud, not on my Mac — access to my email, or calendar, or banking. I wouldn’t grant a stranger access to my email. So why would I grant a robot? But my refusal to grant Muse access to anything like that means that it’s basically just a toy for me to poke at.

A lot of people hire personal assistants — humans — and give them access to their email (and calendar, files, bank accounts, etc.). I’ve never done that, but I’ve long considered it. I see the appeal. But if I hired a personal assistant, I’d get to know them first. Develop some trust. My time is valuable, but not as valuable as my comfort, and I’d be excruciatingly uncomfortable giving anyone — or anything — I didn’t trust access to my life. I’m not saying I will never grant access to such things to an AI agent. In fact, I bet that sooner or later I will, to some carefully measured extent. But not now.


One of my favorite teachers in high school was a history teacher named Gary Choyka. I had him for morning homeroom too, and I loved that he had a daily subscription to The Philadelphia Inquirer, a real newspaper, not just our Podunk suburban rag. Mr. Choyka was a great teacher, full stop. I learned a lot about the world, and a ton about our civil rights and liberties here in the U.S., from him. It was from Mr. Choyka that I learned that you do not have to allow the police to enter your home just because they’re at the door claiming that they’re going to enter the home. That came in handy at some high school parties (and made me the designated knock-at-the-door answerer).

Part of what made Mr. Choyka a great teacher is that he had a wonderful presence, a mastery of the classroom. And he had one devastatingly effective technique. If he was giving a lecture and a bit of chatter between students grew to the point of even slight disruption, he’d just stop talking, mid-sentence, stare at the chattering students, and after waiting a few beats, say, “I’ll wait.”

Having been the disruptive whisperer more than once, I still feel small thinking about that phrase. It was like getting zapped by Rick Moranis’s kid-shrinking machine. Thirty-some years later and I can still hear him saying it. I’ll wait. It worked because he meant it. He wasn’t going to compete for attention.

It’s not really an analogous situation at all. But somehow it’s Mr. Choyka’s signature line that comes to mind when I ponder how I feel about AI agents — at least the sort of ones like Muse that want control over my personal computing, and really, personal life. I’ll wait.

Regarding the Provenance of Charm Within Meta

Mark Gurman, reporting for Bloomberg Wednesday, after Meta’s 2026 Connect keynote (gift link):

Meta Platforms Inc. unveiled a palm-sized, dedicated gadget for using Muse, the company’s popular new artificial intelligence assistant, pushing deeper into the AI devices market with a surprise announcement.

The product, unveiled on stage by Meta Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg, was born out of the company’s new design lab led by former Apple Inc. interface design chief Alan Dye and its Superintelligence AI group. [...]

Dye, the former Apple design executive, and Billy Sorrentino, one of his top deputies at the iPhone maker, were two of the driving forces behind the project and the creation of the Muse character-based interface, Bosworth said.

Meta recruited the executives at the end of 2025, forcing Apple to shake up its own design team to fill the void left by their absence. Dye and Sorrentino hired a slew of other designers from Apple as well, and they contributed to Muse Charm as well as the interface of its Muse smartphone apps, Bosworth said.

On today’s episode of Dithering (which you should subscribe to), Ben Thompson dropped a juicy tidbit about this (starting around 5m:15s):

Thompson: By the way, do you want to hear some gossip about this?

Gruber: Yeah, of course.

Thompson: Well, Mark Gurman has a piece crediting Alan Dye. Utter and complete theft of credit is what I’m hearing. Alan Dye doing Alan Dye things.

Gruber: And I wonder who his source was!

 ★ 

Muse Looks Cute, but Looks Are Deceiving

Jason Aten, in a good follow-up to his previous column at Inc. (the one where he described how Muse, running on his Mac, read his Messages database):

The entire reason Muse is interesting is that it isn’t just a chatbot, but can actually do things for you. But that promise also comes with a pretty high bar of responsibility. If your goal is to put a powerful AI agent on millions of devices, you have to be incredibly clear about what’s happening, and what people are agreeing to.

If your primary audience does not understand what Full Disk Access means, you should not surprise them with “I’m reading your text messages.” It’s unreasonable to expect them to learn about things like virtual machines, permission architectures, macOS TCC, Sentinel agents, or database synchronization in order to understand what the thing is doing or what is happening with their personal information.

Having an agent installed on people’s computers that appears overeager to access their information or take action on their behalf isn’t helpful. It’s terrifying.

Aten makes some good points about the inherent tension between Muse — especially in the context of running on your Mac desktop — being powerful cutting-edge technology yet being presented by Meta in an extremely consumer-friendly package. Muse is getting a lot of attention — including mine — because it’s both groundbreaking technically (each user gets their own entire persistent Linux VM running in Meta’s cloud) and because it’s packaged in an easy-to-install easy-to-use way. It’s literally presented as a cute mascot. It’s the first consumer-accessible agentic AI system, and Meta has truly done an amazing job with that. But it’s a genuinely open question whether consumers have any understanding what this means. If you buy a power saw that can cut your fingers off, you are almost certainly aware that you are buying a power saw that can sever your fingers. You may or may not choose to use it with appropriate carefulness. But you know just by looking at it that a power saw (or a nail gun, or a chef’s knife, or a hammer, or any other powerful tool) is dangerous. I don’t think people realize how powerful — and thus dangerous — Muse is, especially if it’s running on your Mac.

 ★ 

I Was Not Blown Away by Eli Tan’s ‘I Was Blown Away’ Review of Meta Muse

Eli Tan, writing for The New York Times, “I Gave My Life Over to Meta’s A.I. Agent and Was Blown Away” (gift link):

For one final task, I asked Wren for a good way to spend that $44.99 it had saved me. At this point, it knew my life pretty well. I thought it might suggest something altruistic, like donating the money to charity or buying flowers for my girlfriend, who was recovering from surgery.

Instead, it suggested something even better — buying bowls from Heath Ceramics, a local ceramics maker with a dedicated following, on Facebook Marketplace, one of my favorite pastimes.

Reading Tan’s “blown away” review (which words only appear in the headline, but it’s his byline under it) made me feel like I was on a hidden camera show. Like I’ve been told I’m about to be served some blow-you-away good coffee and what I’m tasting sure tastes like Folger’s fucking crystals. I’m not saying Muse isn’t capable of blow-you-away things, but I sure didn’t read any of them in Tan’s review. And then, at the end, it steers him toward buying something from ... Meta’s own Facebook Marketplace? And the reaction isn’t a hard eye roll?

I get the feeling that Tan believes he’s supposed to be impressed by Muse so he wrote a piece saying he was impressed even though he didn’t use it to do a single impressive thing. If Tan asked the new Siri AI for a recommendation on what to do and it suggested he go to an Apple Store and buy new AirPods, would he not think that a bit cynical? Or if Alexa suggested that he should buy more Kindle books?

Here’s Rusty Foster, over at Today in Tabs:

Tan and Johnson both seem like they have totally ordinary middle class white collar 2026 American lives, so I don’t mean anything personal against them when I say these reviews both make their authors sound like the biggest imaginable losers. You can’t call a guy to pick up a branch? Within two weeks? You can’t actually pick up a branch yourself with your own meat hands and throw it in the woods or something? What do you mean you had your robot shop for collectible ceramics? Is there any other part of collecting ceramics as a hobby besides shopping for them? Is your hobby now “having bowls?” Hi, I’m Eli Tan, writer for the New York Times. In my leisure time I enjoy owning dishes.

 ★ 

The Broadview Six Case May Be About to Break Open

Here is a short update on the so-called Broadview Six case — one of the high-profile prosecutorial abuse cases coming out of ICE/CBP Midway Blitz occupation of Chicago in the fall and winter of 2025-26. To catch everyone back up, this was a case involving four candidates or elected officials, one campaign staffer and one activist. It was tied to ongoing protests outside the ICE Broadview facility outside Chicago. Federal prosecutors took a situation that involved protestors briefly making contact with a vehicle unexpectedly trying to drive through a protest line and jacked it up to a felony case. As one of the lawyers on the case told me at the time, the facts supported at best a misdemeanor disorderly conduct charge, and even that would been a wild overreaction to what actually happened.

Throughout the case, it was clear that the case was part of the Trump administration’s larger strategy of targeting peaceful protestors with wildly excessive charges. Eventually the case fell apart when major prosecutorial misconduct was uncovered on the part of the prosecutors in the case. All charges were eventually dropped in May with prejudice, just before the trial was to take place. The remaining mystery was tied to the original prosecutor in the case, who committed the misconduct securing the indictment the previous fall. (There was other misconduct tied to turning off doctored transcripts of that grand jury session.) That prosecutor, Sheri Mecklenburg, had a generally apolitical reputation and certainly was no right-winger. Defense attorneys had the impression she didn’t have a lot of confidence in the government’s position. She left the case with little explanation for a DOJ assignment working on the Senate Judiciary Committee under Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) in February. Meanwhile, the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois — Andrew Boutros — and Mecklenburg’s replacement — William Hogan — were both known to be strongly onboard with the Trump/ICE program. (Hogan also had a tattered reputation on the professional ethics front.)

All the blame for what had happened was placed squarely on Mecklenburg’s shoulders. And the grand jury transcript showed pretty clearly that she was the one who committed the misconduct before the grand jury. But did she really decide to do all this on her own? Boutros’s answer was clear: Yes. He’d been out of the loop. Mecklenburg was a bad apple, and he was on the case to seek out any other bad apples that might be in the office. That always seemed hard to figure because why would a career prosecutor near retirement, with no obvious ideological motive, throw away her career on a case she apparently didn’t think much of, while keeping her Trump-loyal boss out of the loop? And yet through the summer she remained totally silent while the court began to mull possible sanctions for the misconduct in the case.

‘Broadview Six’ prosecutor ‘owns’ mistakes in tainted case, says she was following orders – Chicago Sun-Times↗

That ended yesterday. Mecklenburg resigned her position in order to be able to intervene in the case (filing here) and thus make her claims (Mecklenburg letter here) about what happened. You can read the local report in the Chicago Sun-Times and Marcy Wheeler’s analysis at Empty Wheel. But the gist is this. Mecklenburg said that she never thought the case should have been a felony in the first place and wanted misdemeanor charges. She further claims that she that she kept Boutros informed about what she was doing at every step of the process. If that’s true, Boutros pretty clearly lied both to the public and the court. There are other points Mecklenburg makes. Those I’ll leave to others who understand the technicalities of prosecutorial ethics and procedure better than I do. But the gist is clear: Mecklenburg says she’s not going down for this alone. Boutros was on board with everything, informed about everything. And the wild over-charging at the heart of the case was on his orders over her objection.

The AI Economy – Not An Exaggeration

There’s an article (gift link) out today in The Wall Street Journal about infrastructure spending on AI and data centers. We know the stock market is fueled, dominated by the AI boom. We know about the politics of data centers. But the details here, largely based on a recent Brookings study really boggle the mind. I’m going to share two charts to illustrate the story. But the gist is that AI is already year over year the biggest infrastructure build in American history, dwarfing the US highway system, the data transmission build out for the internet, canals and being substantially bigger than the railroad buildout in the years after the Civil War. And by many measures the entire economy is now dominated by AI spending. Not only is the non-AI economy doing pretty poorly, at least showing less spending than before. But to a great degree that’s because AI spending is crowded out other spending and driving up prices. (If you’ve tried to buy a computer or computer memory recently you knows this.)

I’m going to share a few charts.

As you can see, this is annualized infrastructure spending as a percentage of GDP. With some acquaintance with economic history, once you get sufficiently far back in time, it’s hard to make perfect apples to apples comparisons about spending and GDP. But with the best numbers we have the AI build out is already the largest in all of American history – dwarfing everything but the railroads and still bigger than that.

We of course have all these debates about whether AI is a bubble, whether it can generate returns commensurate with capital expenditures. But it is certainly true that AI or LLMs are an economically unproven infrastructure investment. So these are truly wild levels of spending. And as the Journal article makes clear this is heavily weighted toward borrowed money.

The next chart is this one compared construction on AI and all other construction in the private economy. The chart really speaks for itself.

As I said, read the article. Even if you don’t have a Journal subscription, the link above is a gift link. So you should be able to read it.

TPM Video: 2028 Dem Contenders, Tattoos, and How the GOP Is Grappling With Its Midterm Woes

In case you’ve missed it, we relaunched our Weekender newsletter earlier this year, adding some fun recurring segments (trivia! “This Effing Guy!”) and refocusing it on the “funny, surreal, and strange in U.S. politics and culture.” I joined publisher Joe Ragazzo this afternoon for a little preview of tomorrow’s Weekender, which will categorize the different ways Republicans are trying to cope with their grim prospects in the midterms.

We also touched on kid stuff (I’m about to have my second), tattoos, the prospect of an AOC 2028 presidential run, and some other fun topics. Check out the full live below, and see more TPM conversations on our YouTube channel.

Mr. Choyka Is Apparently Doing Well

A reader asked if this Gary Choyka who hit two holes-in-one in the same round of golf back in 2020 is the same Gary Choyka who was my history teacher 30+ years ago. Indeed it is. He looks good. (He was a hell of a basketball player too.)

 ★ 

Stock UI in MacOS 27 Eschews Clarity

“Thibault”, in post on Mastodon responding to Brent Simmons’s “stock Mac UI” post that I just linked to:

It reminded me of my own explorations with the macOS design language, especially the modern title/toolbar which I believe is one of the most foundational design regression on the platform.

I played with the idea of redesigning the Finder with the original hierarchy but keeping the current Liquid Glass styling. Though it’s still far from what I’d like to see on my Mac, I thought I’d share.

Here’s his subtle mockup:

Thibault’s Finder redesign, with an actual MacOS 27 Finder window on the left, and his redesign on the right. His redesign features distinctive window chrome for the title and toolbar area, and a better hierarchy in the sidebar.

The changes in Thibault’s redesign, if you describe them verbally, sound minor. But looking at the differences feels like a huge — and much needed — breath of fresh air. It relaxes my nervous system to see obvious differentiation for window chrome at the top. The hierarchy is clear: this area is the window, this area is the content of the window.

Apple’s MacOS 27 Golden Gate stock UI deliberately does away with that differentiation, for no good reason. I crave clarity, and Apple’s current MacOS design language rejects clarity. Like: where exactly can you click to drag a window around? That ought to be obvious; instead it’s literally a guessing game. And Thibault’s simple example also shows that the problem has nothing to do with “Liquid Glass” controls.

 ★ 

Brent Simmons on ‘Stock’ Mac UI

Brent Simmons:

To recap: the reasons for using stock Mac UI are 1) user familiarity, which we’ve known for a while just isn’t a thing, and 2) hoping to be able to expend less developer effort, which we’ve seen can work against you.

But there’s another reason: the stock Mac UI is designed by Apple, the best designers in the world, and do you really think you can do better? Really?

The app world is full of people who think they’re better and they’re really, really, really not.

Well, I still think Apple has the best collection of UI designers in the world, but, for whatever reasons, the guidance from above on how the Mac UI should look is missing the mark. I’m not blaming the people doing the work — they’re doing great work with the direction they’re given.

So this — bad direction — is where the secret third reason falls down. And we’re left with no real reason to stick with stock Mac UI (except for wanting approval from longtime Mac people like me, and you really shouldn’t care about that at all).

I was hesitant to quote anything from Simmons’s post, because you really ought to read the whole thing. (I’ve always loved the way Brent writes.) But I really like his emphasis throughout the piece on the term “stock Mac UI”. Debating the nuances of what it means for software to be “Mac-like” is one of the through lines of Daring Fireball since the very beginning. It doesn’t mean just one thing, and it doesn’t encompass just a few things. It’s a lot of things. But that makes it susceptible to picking and choosing — what one considers “Mac-like” might just be what one personally prefers.

But using the stock Mac UI — or building your custom UI atop (or in OOP terms, subclassing) stock Mac UI controls — is so thoroughly agreed-upon as a fundamental aspect of Mac-like-ness that it’s seldom even discussed. This relatively short post from Simmons bursts that bubble — or if you’ll permit a grosser but perhaps more apt metaphor, lances that boil. The emperor has no clothes, and MacOS’s stock UI is bad. It’s that simple.

At the end of the post Simmons includes two screenshots of NetNewsWire after a day of noodling where he removed the stock window chrome and toolbar (the venerable NSToolbar, perhaps the stockiest of stock UI elements) and replaced them with custom controls. If you told me 10 or 20 years ago that Brent Simmons spent a day replacing NSToolbar in NetNewsWire just to see what it looked like, I’d have called him on the phone to see if he was OK.

But today, after the last few years of Apple losing the plot with the Mac user interface, I look at these two screenshots and my first thought isn’t that they look old-school. It’s simply that they look refreshingly Mac-like. Understated, humble, and obvious. Not nostalgic. Just ... good. And more Mac-like than the actual current version of NetNewsWire, which thoroughly embraces the stock Mac UI from Apple.

 ★ 

Four eras of San Francisco tech culture

Photo by Jack Dorsey via Wikimedia.org

The other day I went on the Monitoring the Situation livestream, and we talked about the history of San Francisco tech culture:

I’ve never actually worked in the tech industry, but I’ve lived on and off in the Bay Area for a quarter of a century now — including the last 10 years in San Francisco itself — and I’ve spent a lot of that time hanging out with people who work in or around the tech industry. Throughout much of that time, I was also reading some the same source materials that inspired lots of tech people — science fiction, futurist websites and books, nerdy forums and blogs, and so on.

Over that time, I’ve watched more and more people start to care about all this. Back in the early 2000s, as far as I could tell, pretty much nobody in the world cared about what some dorky hoodie-wearing computer programmers were up to on a Saturday night in SF. Fast forward 25 years, and the President of the United States is gathering opposition research on SF techie subcultures:

President Trump's allies are targeting Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei as the face of AI "doomerism" and a founding father of the effective altruism movement that's come under increasing political fire…Trump surrogates see Amodei as an easy foil because of his politics and focus on AI safety, sources told Axios…

A memo began circulating within the White House this week that seeks to paint effective altruism as a fringe, cultish collective out of touch with mainstream America. The memo, obtained by Axios, places Amodei at the foundation of the movement…Effective altruism “built the AI-doom pipeline,” states the memo, which was penned by a Trump political adviser…Critics of the movement, which has ties to the AI research community, have called out its obsession with AI safety, animal welfare (including musings on shrimp consciousness) and other values they deem far from the U.S. mainstream…

The document lists a veritable parade of horribles for the average conservative mind: abortion, veganism, devaluing human life by overvaluing animals or granting "digital minds" civil rights-like protections.

If you could go back in time and tell the 2001 version of me that the President’s allies are talking on national news about shrimp consciousness, I would have laughed out loud. (Until you told me who the President was, of course.) Not only that, but you have the New York Post talking about Effective Altruists’ sex lives, and op-eds debating EA philosophy in top blogs and the Washington Post.

Ladies and gentlemen, it really happened. The nerds took over the world. We have arrived.

I’ve never been an Effective Altruist,1 of course, and I’ve only hung out a little bit in those circles. But in fact, EA is only one corner of the tech culture, and its influence on the AI safety discussion is probably a lot less than people think. In fact, the people talking about EA in the White House and in the news aren’t even really identifying the right group of people — the AI safety obsessives that the White House is taking aim at are the Rationalists, who are descended from a group of 1990s futurists called the Extropians. EA is a largely separate philosophical movement that appeals to some of the Rationalists, has some overlapping social circles, and jumped into the AI safety discussion later on after the basic ideas were all in place.

But anyway, that whole intellectual history is a story for another day (or you can just go ask AI). Today what I wanted to do is to give a brief anthropological history of the tech culture in San Francisco since the turn of the century, from my own quasi-outsider’s perspective. There have been four distinct eras over that time period:

  1. The Rebel Era (2001-2012)

  2. The Corporate Era (2012-2019)

  3. The Interregnum (2020-2022)

  4. The AI Era (2022-present)

But let’s start with some background.

The 20th century: SF tech pre-history

SF tech culture is the modern descendant of a very long lineage. It’s a branch off of the tree of computer science culture, which is closely intermingled with electrical engineering culture, and which are both branches off of the great broad trunk of science and technology culture more generally. But it’s important to realize that what became SF tech culture didn’t start in San Francisco — it started down on the peninsula to the south.

The modern tech industry began in the suburban towns around Stanford University — Menlo Park, Palo Alto, Cupertino, Sunnyvale, and so on. This had been a hub of the old electric equipment industry from World War 2 onward, and so William Shockley chose Mountain View to start the first semiconductor company in 1955. Fairchild broke off from Shockley, and Intel broke off from Fairchild. The whole area became a hub of semiconductor manufacturing in the 60s and 70s, then computer companies (Apple was founded in 1976 in Cupertino), then software companies like Oracle and Adobe. For a long time, Sand Hill Road in Palo Alto was the locus of the venture capital industry.

Today we use “Silicon Valley” to refer to the IT industry in general, but originally it meant the area around Menlo Park and Palo Alto. I wasn’t there to see this era, but a few good resources to learn about both the economics and the culture are:

  1. The book Regional Advantage, by Annalee Saxenian, which documents how and why Silicon Valley became America’s top tech cluster

  2. The documentary General Magic, which chronicles a failed but highly influential smartphone startup in the 90s

  3. The movie Office Space and the book Microserfs, which both satirize the stultifying experience of working for a big tech company in the 90s

  4. The book From Counterculture to Cyberculture, which chronicles the techno-hippie movement that grew up around the emerging computer industry

San Francisco began as a marginal bit player in the whole tech ecosystem. It was a place that some tech people would come up to party and network, especially during the dotcom era when a lot of money (at least, for those days) was splashing around.

But it did have a media industry, and in the 1990s, some people who worked in publishing, advertising, and other media started trying to get in on the internet gold rush. A few engineers and entrepreneurs who didn’t want to live in the boring suburban environment of Silicon Valley moved to SF to make tech media and web startups. Tony Hsieh’s autobiography, Delivering Happiness, tells the story of how he founded LinkExchange in San Francisco, while getting involved in the rave scene. At the same time, SF became a locus of tech media — Wired was founded there in 1993.

That, I think, was really the start of modern San Francisco tech culture as we know it. It bled directly into the first era of tech culture that I witnessed first-hand — the Rebel Era of the 2000s.

The Rebel Era (2001-2012)

In 2003, when people said “Silicon Valley”, they still meant the Peninsula. Google began there, Apple made its big comeback there, and when Facebook moved out west in 2004, this is where it went. Sand Hill Road was still the epicenter of tech — throughout the 2000s, people would still use “walk down Sand Hill Road” as a synonym for trying to get VC funding. If you wanted to make money in tech in the 2000s — and everyone knew there was still a lot of money to be made, despite the dotcom bust — you went to the Peninsula.

This was the land of office parks, cute but sterile shopping villages, overpriced single-family homes, big tracts of open space, Patagonia vests, and bland restaurants serving pancake brunch. It was where you went to tutor kids for $50 an hour2 if you were a Stanford student who needed cash. It was also the land of starched button-down shirts, cubicles, and pointy-haired bosses who didn’t quite know what their engineers were up to. It was not a place to meet girls, go to parties, do drugs, wear grungy clothes, or dream big dreams about freeing society from the clutches of authority and tradition.

If you went up to SF to start a company in the 2000s instead of going down to the Peninsula like everyone else, it usually meant you were something of a rebel. A whole alternative tech culture grew up in the city — more laid-back, more politically liberal, less obviously focused on money and “success” and more focused on building fun products. Twitter was the most famous product of this time period — Evan Williams’s life project was to give a voice to the voiceless, and Jack Dorsey was a scruffy hippie kid who went to raves.

This is the time period when Burning Man — which had pretty much just been a punk art festival in the 90s — became a techie thing. Fire tornadoes and slapping LEDs on everything still felt like art. Everyone went to the Oakland warehouses to party, and for a brief shining moment, techies and artists got along. Psychedelic drugs were almost a matter of course — after all, Steve Jobs had done them, and Jobs was the great tech hero of that decade. Tech became more communal — instead of hacking together the next big thing in your parents’ garage or in a cubicle, you might go hang out and do it at Noisebridge in the Mission, surrounded by other techno-hippie hacker types like yourself.3

There was an ideological side to all this, too. There was a real belief — carried over from the 90s, but still strong — that the internet was going to liberate humanity. The tech rebels of the 2000s believed that social hierarchies were based on information control, and that if they simply broke that control, the hierarchies would be overturned. The information wanted to be free!

The most important touchstone of SF tech culture during this time wasn’t rationalism or the LessWrong forums — it was the Electronic Frontier Foundation, an organization dedicated to freedom of information on the internet. All the cool kids — the badass self-taught engineers and the brilliant cryptographers and the bohemian founders — were part of the EFF, or at least friendly with its goals.4 The anarchist tech prophet Cory Doctorow was an icon of the age, writing sci-fi about Burning Man colonizing the moon, tech founders taking down Disney, and so on. Everyone read BoingBoing and Gizmodo.

The Rebel Era gave tech a more liberal slant. Traditionally, engineers had been a little staid and conservative, and the big tech companies on the Peninsula were studiously apolitical. But Marc Benioff and other 2000s SF tech types waded (cautiously) into the political waters on the liberal side. This is also when education polarization in America really started to bite, meaning that most engineers were now libs in general. But there was a particular techno-liberalism, based around the idea of the internet flattening social and political hierarchies, that suffused the grungy SF tech scene in the 2000s.

In retrospect, the Rebel Era couldn’t last. Its bohemian, socially flattened culture was always predicated on a lack of money, and when money came in, SF tech was transformed.

The Corporate Era (2012-2019)

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After seven years, a spacecraft company is releasing its Otters into the wild

Imagine starting a space company in October 2019 with the aim of changing the world. Then, a few months later, a global pandemic shuts the world down.

"Little did we know what the world had in store for us," said Trevor Bennett, an engineer who co-founded Starfish Space after a few years at Blue Origin. "But that's kind of become part of our story, showing some resilience along the way."

At Blue Origin, he saw, up close, the ambitions of billionaires to build big rockets and put massive numbers of satellites into orbit. Bennett and his co-founder, another engineer from Blue Origin named Austin Link, began to think about the implications. How would humanity deal with that increased volume of satellites in orbit? Could low-Earth orbit be preserved?

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Rocket Report: Era of cheap launch is over? Astra sets early 2027 target for return

Welcome to Edition 9.12 of the Rocket Report! The big story in the global launch industry remains SpaceX's plans to wind down Falcon 9 operations for commercial launches, possibly within the next two or three years. That has created a scramble among satellite operators and some positioning among up-and-coming launch providers. Notably, in this week's newsletter, there's a story about how Firefly expects launch to become more expensive, and that customers got too used to rapid, reliable launch with the Falcon 9. I'm not sure that philosophy will work out long term.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

The best-named rocket in the world is sadly delayed. French launch startup HyPrSpace announced that it has pushed the inaugural flight of its Baguette One suborbital rocket to 2027, European Spaceflight reports. The 10-meter Baguette One rocket is a single-stage vehicle is capable of carrying up to 300 kg. It is powered by the company’s hybrid propulsion system, which combines liquid oxygen with solid polyethylene fuel.

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Please Stop Pretending You Don’t Want to Be President

Pete Buttigieg, who is not NOT running for president

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Something weird happened recently: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was interviewed by the New York Times, and when she was inevitably asked if she plans to run for president in 2028, she didn’t respond with “I’m just focused on the job I’m doing” or some other kind of evasion. Instead, she made clear that she’s thinking about it, and talked about some of the considerations involved, including the racism and sexism that could make such a bid more difficult. “If you’re asking me about the things that I weigh, of course, that’s part of what I weigh,” she said. “It’s funny because it’s kind of like, everyone else is allowed to talk about it, but I’m not?”

AOC’s candor is a good reminder that almost no one who runs for president is actually honest about it, right up until the moment when they announce their candidacy. They pretend that it has barely occurred to them, even as they book appearances in early primary states and write awful books about how inspired they are by this fine country of ours.

Nevertheless, some of the likely candidates are showing a little bit of ankle. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said this week, “I walked off the stage in 2023 after reelection, looked at my wife and said, ‘Whoo! I’ll never have to run for anything ever again.’ Sitting here today, I’m not sure that’s true.” Gavin Newsom, who may know something the rest of us doesn’t, says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does. Ro Khanna says he’s “thinking seriously” about it — which is a good enough answer. At least it doesn’t pretend that the candidate has no ambition, which for some reason is what most of them want us to believe.

But the default response for candidates is to avoid answering the question while leaving the door open, the better to create the impression that if and when they do run, it is not because they want to be president but because it would be impertinent to resist the call of history and a nation yearning for their leadership.

This is all Tim Russert’s fault

Unfortunately, politicians’ evasiveness only feeds journalists’ desire to see if they can force them to reveal their secret ambitions. If I ask in just the right way, the journalist thinks, maybe I can get my subject to slip up and say he’s running! Why that should matter is never questioned, and for this I blame Tim Russert.

For those too young to remember, before he died in 2008, Russert, who hosted Meet the Press for 17 years, was probably the most influential journalist in Washington. When he died, the political establishment went into an extended period of mourning ordinarily granted only to former presidents, complete with a memorial service at the National Cathedral attended by the likes of Bill and Hillary Clinton, Condoleezza Rice, and Madeline Albright.

When Russert died, I got a call from a cable TV booker asking if I would come on and talk about his legacy. I said, “I have to tell you, I was not a fan.” She quickly ended the call, and they found someone else. The year before, I had written this article in which I argued that Russert was a poseur, forever playing up his working-class roots in Buffalo as proof of his take-no-bull style, when in fact there was no one kinder to those with power (and he was one of a group of fake blue-collar guys, along with Chris Matthews and Bill O’Reilly, who pretended to be regular joes while they summered in Nantucket enjoying their 7-figure salaries).

Never was that pose of ersatz confrontation more on display than when Russert would pester some senator or governor about whether they were going to run for president, as though that were a question of such pressing importance that it justified repeated badgering even after it was clear that while the politician may have had an interest in running, he didn’t have an interest in saying so. If someone was lying us into a needless war or tossing off absurd arguments about tax policy, Russert would offer only the most superficial questioning, but when it came to whether they were going to make a run for the Oval Office, he wouldn’t take “I have no plans” for an answer.

It got so ridiculous that in late 2002, Saturday Night Live did a skit about Russert (played by Darrell Hammond) badgering (the actual) John McCain about whether he was going to run in 2004. At one point, Russert demands to know whether McCain will run in 2008, or 2012, or 2016; when he gets to 2028, McCain points out that he’d be 90, and Russert says “Hypothetical: It’s 2028. Genetic engineering has extended the human lifespan to 200 years. Would a relatively young John McCain challenge a reanimated Jimmy Carter zombie?”

You can see Russert’s legacy everywhere. Here’s a story about a town hall Maryland Gov. Wes Moore did recently:

Moore said he is not running for president in 2028, despite being described during the event as a “rising star” in the Democratic Party and someone who has been floated as a possible contender. Asked directly about 2028 plans, Moore said, “I’m not running for president.” When moderator Norah O’Donnell followed up, asking, “But you’re not saying you’ll never run?” Moore responded, “I don’t see a reason. I love my job. I love what I’m doing.”

Will he see a reason after he gets easily reelected in November? Probably, or maybe not. But why do we even care at this point?

Or take this example, in which an interviewer came up with a clever way to trap Pete Buttigieg into saying he’s maybe kinda sorta leaning toward possibly running:

The whole line of questioning is stupid; there are a hundred better things you could ask him. But also: C’mon, Pete. Everyone knows you’re running. You don’t have to say it explicitly yet (and there are legal requirements that kick in once you do), but at least you can say “Yeah, I’m thinking about it.”

That would be honest, it would be sufficient for voters, and it would force the reporters to come up with something more interesting to ask than “Are you running? Are you? Are you?” Then we could move on to something more important.

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With PRIMA, NASA will try to build a billion-dollar space telescope in record time

The first in a new class of space telescopes is on track to reach the launch pad in the early 2030s, NASA announced this week.

The PRIMA mission will be the first of NASA's Probe Explorers, a new line of observatories intended to do more science for less money. The agency's space telescopes typically fall into lower-cost "Explorer-class" missions, with cost caps in the range of a few hundred million dollars, or flagship observatories like the recently launched Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, which came with a price tag of some $4.3 billion.

With the Probe Explorers, NASA officials seek to find a better balance between the smaller Explorer missions and multibillion-dollar flagships. NASA has studied potential Probe Explorer mission concepts for several years after an independent panel of scientists recommended the new mission category. But it wasn't clear until recently whether NASA's science budget, which is under pressure from the Trump administration, would be sufficient to actually start developing one.

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Trump loves communism

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Fireside Friday, September 25, 2026

Hey, folks, Fireside this week! We’re now well into the Teaching Paradox series on Hearts of Iron, but as you may have noticed, the structure of those posts means they tend to be quite chunky (the first two have both been right around 10,000 words) and longer posts take time. Thus, a fireside this week to balance out, before we move from HoI4‘s purely military layer to its strategic, political and economic layer.

Ollie looking like he is about to give his own lecture, presumably on the importance of sufficient pets and nuzzles.

For this week’s musing, I want to talk about a series of videos on ‘realistic’ worldbuilding I’ve seen floating around online from a channel called “The Grainbound.” The channel seems to regularly hit the hundreds of thousands of views on its videos and I’ve seen them floating around among friends and in other contexts which makes me think they’re getting pretty wide distribution in the fantasy-worldbuilding space. They are, after all, decently well-produced and authoritative sounding, which is why it is such a problem that they’re not quite right.

I’m going to pick two of the most popular videos to discuss, to give a sense of what I think is the problem here, one on how the logistics of grain transport supposedly shapes maps (really, the distribution of large settlements on maps) and another on the role of sea trade in food supply to cities. And at first, you might be surprised that I am going to take issue with this, because “food production fundamentally determines the shape of pre-modern societies” is very much my brand. And so it is good to try to reason from historical examples to understand how societies – real and fictional – are structured.

The problem, of course, is that the devil is in the details: how accurate is your understanding of historical societies and how effective is your reasoning from them? When i started listening to these videos, it was a strange sort of experience – some of the principles were right, or at least right-ish, but the whole thing was just a touch off, punctuated by moments of sharp dissonance where I detected a real ‘howler.’

Perhaps the sharpest of these howlers – which made me immediately suspicious about the historical knowledge foundation at work – came in the second video on seaborne trade. The overall point – sea transit is highly dependent on wind patterns, which are sometimes seasonal – is good. He neglects, however, coastal winds (sea breezes and offshore breezes) which tend to be more localized and time-of-day dependent than prevailing winds and more variable, which is part of why a lot of pre-modern shipping is cabotage (literally ‘coasting,’ mixed-cargo, small-load, short-distance coastal routes), a type of shipping his model entirely neglects.1

But the point at which I realized this fellow’s knowledge foundation is deeply cracked (and probably very thin) was the claim – at about six minutes in – that “the capital [Rome] was in the wrong place for its own food and rather than move the capital, they spent about a century of moving the harbor towards it.” What he has in mind was the construction of Portus, a large artificial harbor complex built under the emperor Claudius in the mid-first century AD. What he is unaware of is that this wasn’t the first port of Rome: that was Ostia Antica, sitting directly on the mouth of the Tiber (today the site is inland but in antiquity, it was coastal), which construction at Portus expanded. A lot of trade into and out of Latium also went through Puteoli, which the video mentions, but Rome had a port at the mouth of its river and trade-reliant imperial capitals sited inland (often for security reasons) but with dedicated port cities are not rare: Athens and its Piraeus, Antioch and its Seleucia in Pieria, for instance.

Moreover, he was treating the fact that most of the calorie content of Rome arrived in two short bursts as a unique product of the sailing season, when it is in fact an iron law of societies based on cereal cultivation: you eat all year, but the crop only comes in once. For any city pulling from the whole of the Mediterranean – and thus pulling from both spring wheat and winter wheat farming regions – the harvest comes in twice. The boats merely deliver that farming-based timetable on a short delay.

But there’s a deeper problem here, which becomes more visible in his most popular video, “The Ox That’s Breaking You Fantasy Map” where he tries to outline a typology of settlements based on their interaction with grain transport. And the core problem here is a the map is not the territory problem: he is focused on building maps for fantasy worlds and so he is beginning as a map-maker begins: with terrain and then with major settlements and political structures. He thus defines his major settlements as different kinds of ‘Lords’ (really, political regimes): the ‘Chokepoint Lord’ (who controls a trade chokepoint like a mountain pass), the ‘Surplus Lord’ and so on.

The problem is that urban centers and their connected polities don’t emerge this way, springing into existence ex nihilo to respond to fully developed long-distance trade patterns. Instead, they emerge bottom-up. Some clever chap (chaps, really, over many generations) invent farming, enabling sedentary settlements (villages) a greater population density. Those villages get too big (because farmers need to be able to walk to their fields in the morning) and fission, creating new villages (and pushing other less-population-dense communities out of the way, violently, as they do so), as farming communities ‘fill in’ geographic spaces suitable for farming. Lands marginal to farming end up with lower population density strategies (pastoralism, hunting and gathering), often deeply interconnected with the farmers next door.

This ‘carpet’ of farmers isn’t focused on moving grain long distances, these are mostly self-sufficient villages. Now ‘how do towns form’ is a contested question, but there are basically two main schools of thought: towns form when wealthy landholding aristocrats (Big Men) begin centralizing resources (mostly for warfare), or towns form when temples and their priests (Big Men with Fancy Hats) begin centralizing resources (mostly for religious activity, but also for warfare) in the largest, densest villages. In practice, when we look at early settlement formation, both factors appear to be at play. But once the Big Man or the Big Temple have extracted surplus, they’re using it to employ specialists (craftsmen, priests, bureaucrats, domestics and oh so many thugs), which creates a local (still not dealing with long-distance yet) nexus of economic activity, which creates local market-centers. And of course it now makes sense for merchants to stop by those local market-centers (rather than try their luck in random villages) and for the villagers to find artisans or buyers for their crops there.

While our maps generally show just the largest handful of Really Big Market Towns, the territory is a tightly woven carpet of smaller farming villages (interlinked with non-farmers where relevant), so ubiquitous we don’t put them on our maps. I think Tolkien – with his Middle Earth being a world depopulated by catastrophes and thus having large stretches with minimal settlement – is in part to blame here, but folks often don’t seem to quite grasp some times how dense the tapestry of settlement gets in agrarian societies where transit is slow. Here, for instance, via Stanford’s POLIS is a map of the Greek poleis in the broader Aegean:

Map generated via POLIS by Stanford University

And of course the ’empty’ spaces here aren’t in most cases really empty: some of them are unsuited for farming and so have low population density, but a lot of them (particularly in Anatolia) are just inhabited by non-Greeks whose communities were thus not captured by the Inventory of Archaid and Classical Poleis (2004) on which the project relies.

Now, human beings are not stupid and so they will recognize key geographic spots and intentionally put centers of control on them, but they do not need to do so. Byzantium and Vienna should both be classic examples of Graindbound’s ‘chokepoint Lord’ but neither was a hugely important place until the Romans chose to make them so – Constantine putting his shiny new capital on top of Byzantium and the Romans building a major military base on the Wienfluss in 97 AD, though Vienna really only becomes an important place because successive German dynasties (the Babenbergs and then the Habsburgs) choose to live there. They could have chosen to live somewhere else! The role these cities served was not the product of some immutable law of long-distance trade, but rather a direct and intentional choice by specific human actors.

In short, everything I’ve seen from the channel is pockmarked with the scars of autodidactism.

Given all of that, it is not a huge surprise that the fellow behind Grainbound has a background in software development, rather than history, archaeology or anthropology. Coming from software development, it is perhaps not surprising that his effort is explicitly to “systematize worldbuilding,” but the result is reducing the complexity of the real historical world to the simple maxims and rules of thumb we use to describe it. My description above of how towns form is more faithful to our evidence for what the development of early states and urbanism looks like, but it is every bit as simplified because actual historical demographics are complicated and highly contingent.

I worry that the popularity of channels like this serve to mislead audiences but also to reinforce the false perception that history is a skill which doesn’t require any specific training or knowledge beyond a collection of historical ‘facts.’ But as we’ve discussed, doing history (or anthropology, or archaeology) well does require trained skills – a lot of them, in fact.

Mostly though, what the success of this channel brings home is that there’s clearly a strong market for this sort of thing and that we professional historians are mostly not reaching it, in part I suspect because of the perception in the field that writing this sort of thing would be ‘beneath us,’ rather than what it is: a valuable opportunity for an exercise in public education. As a corollary to that, it is also increasingly clear that the place to go for the audience here is YouTube, especially with the decline of the micro-blogging (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) ecosystem. I’ve had plans to put together a space for recording video in my home office for a while now (delayed by annoying repair work we’re having to have done on the basement where that is) and while I expect to remain primarily a ‘written word’ guy, everything I see suggests that I need to give serious thought about branching into video, even if it is just the form of “person speaks into camera for 10 minutes.”

On to Recommendations!

Speaking of YouTube, I ran across an interesting channel mostly focused on film criticism and social media, but branching out to a range of topics, The Morbid Zoo, run by University of Illinois Urbana-Campaign PhD candidate Mariana Colin. Of particular relevance to our interests here, she has a really good three-part video series on monsters in Lord of the Rings, covering Orcs, Ents and the Nazgul. I also thought the recent video essay ostensibly about Brand New Day but really about the place of The Punisher in Marvels’ moral universe to be really neat and frankly on point for our current moment.

Also on YouTube, for those who like naval artillery, Forgotten Weapons got out to the USS New Jersey (BB-62, laid down in 1940) to do a series of videos showcasing the operation of New Jersey’s guns, including the multi-purpose 5 inch Mk 12 and of course the big 16 inch main battery. The video run through the entire loading and firing procedure, which gives a lot of insight into how many sailors it took to fire these weapons in combat and also the remarkably clever and technical pre-microchip mechanical computing used to perform range-finding and generate firing solutions. Forgotten Weapons got to film in a number of places that tourists cannot normally go (and touch things they can’t normally touch), so it really is a neat chance to see the whole process walked through.

Meanwhile, for something to read, over at Tales of Times Forgotten, Spencer McDaniel has a really awesome deep dive into the figure if Persephone: the plausible origins for her as a mythical figure, her apparent role as ruler of the Underworld (more frequently so than her husband, Hades), and the suggestion of the evidence that Persephone as a mythological figure may actually predate Hades in terms of the development of Greek religious belief. There’s so much here – Indo-European etymologies, discussions on the influences of early Greek myth, later presentations of Hades and Persephone – that this summary really doesn’t capture it all, but do give it a read.

Meanwhile we also have a new Pasts Imperfect. The headline essay is a meditation by Joel Christensen (of Sententiae Antiquae) on the way that the Iliad and Odyssey change in the retelling and how these poems have always done so: changed by the oral tradition, by the decisions of translators, by the impact of scholarship, by each new hearing. Also noted is the new research paper from the Itiner-e project on the Roman roads, but what I especially like is the emphasis on how these projects build on each other, reaching back to The Barrington Atlas (2000), through the important work of the Pleiades Project, which provides the data baseline used by all sorts of geographic antiquity projects (like Itiner-e). It’s a good reminder that our discipline isn’t just repeating the same facts over again: we are learning new things about the past all the time, advancing the frontier of human knowledge and at the same time this is a collaborative, iterative project, building on each discovery with new ones.

This week’s book recommendation, somewhat in tune with the theme of our musing, is very much “one for the nerds,” but I thought it might be useful to get a sense of what actual, serious pre-modern (in this case, ancient) demography looks like, so I am going to recommend L. de Ligt, Peasants, Citizens and Soldiers: Studies in the Demographic History of Roman Italy 225 BC – AD 100 (2015). Immediate caveats are required: this book is, in paperback, mercifully reasonably priced, but whereas most of my book recommendations here are selected for at least some degree of approachability for a non-specialist reader, I am going a bit more technical with this one; this book is first and foremost written for other scholars. It is not the case that Peasants, Citizens and Soldiers is badly written, to be clear – it is quite well written – but it assumes a fair bit of background knowledge about the Late Roman Republic and Early Roman Empire. That said, there isn’t a ‘for beginners’ approach to Roman demography really out there, so this is as good a starting place as any.

Because it is written for other scholars, the true structure of Peasants, Citizens and Soldiers is basically a series of proposed solutions to points of scholarly dispute; it is organized by academic beefs (although de Ligt is too professional to present them quite so bluntly), rather than a straight chronology or a series of lessons. De Ligt, writing for other scholars, assumes you basically know the outlines of the major debates on the topic, though he is generally pretty good in laying out (fairly!) where each ‘side’ stands.

That said, for a non-specialist reader, Peasants, Citizens and Soldiers has two major virtues. The first is simply that de Ligt here persuasively addresses most of the major scholarly disputes (with a lot of their subfacets, e.g., what does this mean for the Gracchi? For land settlement? for the enfranchisement of the Italians? etc) concerning Roman demography in this period. As a result the book offers a good overview, of a sort, of the methods we use to try to answer those questions. De Ligt engages in demographic modeling, uses the archaeological evidence, engages in textual close reading and so on. The book thus gives a reader coming from outside a very good sense of what actually rigorous approaches to the core question – how many people lived in Roman Italy – looks like.

And the second great virtue is simply that de Ligt is (for now at least) part of what we might represent as a ‘winning coalition’ in the debate. He is a champion of a revised (upward) version of the ‘low count’ (the lower estimate of Roman population); the revisions carry him and other low-counters very close to to the ‘middle count’ (which arrives at similar numbers by slightly different reasoning), while remaining very far below the ‘high count’ (a much higher estimate of Roman population). And as Walter Scheidel pointed out in his review of this volume,2 the 2010s saw the low and middle count largely triumphant (largely through the use of more archaeological evidence), narrowing the debate to just between high version of the low count and the middle count, which are quite close together in any event. Consequently, de Ligt, while again a somewhat challenging read for the non-specialist, will also bring them up to speed fully with where the question of the population of Roman Italy is right now.

SpaceX Falcon 9 launches classified mission for U.S. Space Force from West Coast

File photo of a Falcon 9 at Space Launch Complex 4-East at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Image: SpaceX.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 lifted off at dawn on Saturday from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on a mission to continue deployment of a secretive U.S. military satellite constellation.

Liftoff of the USSF-385 mission lifted off in dense fog at 7:00:54 a.m. PDT (10:00:54 a.m. EDT / 1400:54 UTC). The rocket took a southerly trajectory on departure from the pad at Space Launch Complex 4-East.

This classified mission for the U.S. Space Force is thought to be the third in a series of flights to deploy satellites based on SpaceX’s Starshield, a version of a Starlink satellite intended for government use. SpaceX said it was not showing views of the rocket’s payload or second stage at the request of its customer.

The first satellites in this particular constellation were launched from Vandenberg on USSF-366 on Aug. 15 and USSF-153 on Sept. 10. Although the Space Force revealed no details about the missions, it cataloged 23 satellites in orbit following each launch.

A similar classified mission, USSF-259, headed to a different orbit on Sept. 17 and appeared to carry 17 satellites.

The first stage booster, B1100, was making its 10th flight and landed on the drone ship ‘Of Course I Still Love You’, around eight and a half minutes after launch.

It was the sixth and final Falcon 9 launch of the month from Vandenberg, which has become the prime site for SpaceX as it shifts its focus at Cape Canaveral to Starship operations. Just one Falcon 9 flew from the company’s East Coast launch site in September.

Good points from James Gilliland

It pains me to say this, but if we actually “get AGI,” the resulting boom in industrial capacity from robotics and massive society-wide wealth creation will look like a total vindication of neoliberalism.

The discourse about financialization and offshoring being a generational mistake may be replaced by a very different historical interpretation: that the late 20th and early 21st centuries were an enormous capital-accumulation phase, freeing up civilization-scale pools of liquid capital that could ultimately be deployed to accelerate and bring about the most consequential technological phase-change in human history.

In that telling, what looked like deindustrialization and betrayal from inside the period (I grew up in the Rust Belt, I know) becomes the prelude to reindustrialization on an almost unimaginable scale.

None of this is inevitable. The needle has certainly not been threaded. China and x-risk remain enormous contingencies. But if it is, I suspect the future will look back on the last 50 years very differently than we do today.

Here is the link.

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Friday assorted links

1. “We find a significant and highly robust empirical relationship between gender conservatism and protectionism. That relationship has been evident since 2008 and it decidedly is not a product of Trump-era politics.”

2. More than half the world’s top AI talent comes from China.

3. Argentina now at 1.0, Mexico at 1.2.

4. China is rushing to build a huge nuclear arsenal.

5. Afra Wang on some Chinese AI communities (New Yorker).

6. Mental health trends for Australian youth.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Slab Graveyard

It's ok if you want to close close your eyes for the slab graveyard, so you can still have fun riding the mantle plume back up afterward!

Politics Chat, September 24, 2026

In today’s Politics Chat: A federal judge blocked the State Department’s Office of Remigration from sending deportees to third countries with no ties to them, a program that has cost more than 400 million taxpayer dollars. Another federal judge ruled Homeland Security cannot keep holding detainees in abysmal conditions at a facility in New York. A judge also blocked Trump’s ban on White House press access for Politico, CNN, and MSNBC for 14 days, and Secret Service let the reporters back onto the campus that afternoon. At the United Nations, Iranian and Cuban delegates walked out during Trump’s remarks, and many delegates walked out when Benjamin Netanyahu spoke. Chinese President Xi Jinping again invoked the Thucydides Trap to Trump, a reference to a declining power confronting a rising one. Health and Human Services proposed stripping federal regulations from Head Start, including a new English-only requirement. ProPublica corrected false claims Senator Susan Collins made about its reporting on an alleged pay-to-play scheme tied to a Navy contractor’s campaign donations.

Watch today’s live recording here.

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Pay-To-Play

September 23, 2026

When Trump returned to the White House in 2025, he fired the investigators in the anti-corruption group of the FBI who were investigating Sen. Susan Collins for engaging in a pay-to-play scheme, He largely stopped investigating public corruption, The Gilded Age was known for lawmakers rewarding business followers with government contracts and political office, The relationship between MAGA Republicans and the misuse of tax dollars is becoming more obvious, HHS Secretary Kennedy has taken funds from his department’s Office of Minority Health to fund security for himself, Kennedy has accepted gifts and his wife has accepted consulting fees from allies, Tax dollars are being used to pay authoritarian governments for imprisoning immigrants from the US, The administration is reversing its previous emphasis on resettling refugees, focusing instead on expelling them, often to places where they will be tortured, and all with little oversight, In Texas, an ICE agent shot a Venezuelan food delivery driver who had a valid work permit, The ICE agent was a recent hire, among those hired when the workforce was doubled after billions of dollars were provided by Congress, The NSF, NOAA, and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality are all running far behind in funding for the fiscal year, Trump’s ballroom will cost taxpayers more than $300 million, in spite of his early promises, And the ballroom’s design does not meet fire codes, a concern that Trump dismissed.

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September 24, 2026

After a hearing yesterday about Trump’s Friday ban of CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House campus, very early this morning—I was still awake writing yesterday’s letter—U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly granted the request of the media outlets to stop Trump’s order banning members of their organizations from the White House complex.

Kelly, whom Trump appointed to the bench in 2017, challenged the argument of the White House that it had banned the journalists because they had endangered national security, noting that the stories to which administration lawyers claimed to object were “routine.” In fact, one of the stories the White House claimed endangered national security was based on a press call from the White House itself. According to Oliver Darcy, who writes the media newsletter Status, the anonymous “senior administration official” who provided the quotations on the call was none other than Vice President J.D. Vance.

Kelly ordered the credentials of 78 journalists restored immediately.

This morning, the White House continued to deny reporters from CNN, Politico, and MS NOW access to the White House campus. Their lawyers asked for an emergency hearing because the administration had “already repeatedly violated the Court’s Order,” and soon after the judge ordered the administration to respond, the reporters were once again allowed into the area.

And then tonight, at least CNN and MS NOW were blocked from access to the White House state dinner with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. After Trump posted on social media that CNN and MS NOW (he called it MSDNC) were refusing to cover Xi’s visit “because they knew how good it would be, they didn’t want credit to be given to ‘TRUMP,’” the White House told CNN it could send only an audio producer and a cameraman to the event, not a reporter or producer. Senior White House correspondent Kristen Holmes said: “They again said that we were specifically denied access and that they were not letting in the CNN editorial presence.”

This morning, Trump complained on social media that “[t]he Media is trying to cover up how well things are going before the Midterms, just to help Democrats.”

And that’s the gist of Trump’s attacks on media outlets: MAGA is falling apart, and he either lives in a fantasy world or hopes to stem that collapse by issuing propaganda that will convince voters he is actually winning.

The fantasy world thesis has supporting evidence in an image posted on Trump’s social media account this morning, showing Trump and Xi standing together on a red carpet in front of an airplane apparently labeled Air China. There is a military aircraft flying over a circle of stars with the words “Only Trump” superimposed in a German-style blackletter font. Behind Trump, to his right, is a young woman who looks like Trump’s loyal aide Natalie Harp standing with her hand over her heart.

Journalist Aaron Rupar of Public Notice noted that the image was a digitally altered photo in which the image of the chief officer of protocol of the United States, Monica Crowley, had been replaced by an image that appears to be Harp.

Convincing voters he is winning is an even harder sell.

The Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration is its signature policy, and last week a federal appeals court stopped the Trump administration from sending migrants to third countries, finding that the short timeline for those renditions stripped deportees of their right to due process. The administration appears to have continued the renditions, arguing that the court had not officially notified a lower court of its decision and thus it was not yet in effect, prompting an appeals court to clarify that the flights must stop.

Today Solicitor General D. John Sauer asked the Supreme Court to step in to permit those renditions to third countries. He said that disruption of the administration’s “plans…imposes massive costs on the government and invariably requires new rounds of diplomatic engagement with countries who may be all the more skeptical of our removal efforts given the disruption.”

Also today, U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan criticized Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for ignoring his previous orders and continuing to hold people in “inhumane and unconstitutional” conditions at Manhattan’s 26 Federal Plaza, depriving detainees of “sleep, sanitary living conditions, basic personal hygiene needs, sufficient food and water, and adequate medical care.” Although, as Josephine Walker of Axios points out, the administration likely sees the appalling conditions of its prisons as a way to induce migrants to leave, the judge required ICE to provide adequate space and humane conditions for detainees.

Meanwhile, as Ryan J. Foley of the Associated Press reported today, a report from the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that ICE had no strategic plan for spending the unprecedented $45 billion Congress gave it in Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year, and has wasted tens of millions of taxpayer dollars on slapdash plans for mass detention.

It spent nearly $3 million for tents at Guantanamo Bay that were never used, $20 million for maintaining warehouses that were never used to house detainees and are now being sold, and excessive rates to lock people up. Foley reports that the Department of Homeland Security told the GAO that it would have a plan for spending its windfall by August 31, 2027, nearly a year from now.

After Trump announced the U.S. would accept meat from other countries in order to lower food prices, on September 22 the Department of Agriculture announced the recall of more than 167,000 pounds (75,750 kg) of raw pork, beef, and goat. The items were produced without federal inspection but carried false marks claiming they had been inspected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency said the food “should be considered misbranded and unsafe to eat.”

Trump’s insistence that the country suffers from voter fraud isn’t going well, either.

In California, Republican sheriff Chad Bianco and the Riverside County sheriff’s department confiscated more than 650,000 ballots after California voters agreed to redistrict the state to offset the Republican mid-decade redistricting of Texas. The state’s Democratic attorney general immediately ordered him to return the ballots, saying he had no authority to confiscate them and that the seizure was intended to make people distrust elections.

As Uwa Ede-Osifo of the Guardian reported, the California Supreme Court today ordered Blanco to return the ballots, saying that it was Blanco, rather than voters, who was endangering elections: “Allowing law enforcement unfettered access to ballots, or the ability to handle and count them in secret, based on unregulated protocols, itself creates a substantial risk to election integrity,” it said.

On Saturday, California governor Gavin Newsom signed a bill that makes it a felony to seize ballots from a county elections office.

Trump’s own claims of voter fraud also took a hit this week. As Nick Corasaniti of the New York Times reported today, in July, Trump and Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin claimed they had found more than 270,000 noncitizens on voter rolls in California, Nevada, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Mullin stated that there were as many as 15,903 noncitizens on the voter rolls in Nevada.

But when officials from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) met with Nevada election officials in August, they admitted Mullin’s number was inflated. After the meeting, one wrote to say that the department had confirmed just 185 people on the voter rolls were not citizens. They sent Nevada officials a list of those 185 names.

On Tuesday, Nevada told the federal government that the 185 people on the government’s list are all citizens. “Our records do not support DHS’s claims, and DHS has still not provided evidence to change that,” said Francisco Aguilar, Nevada’s Democratic secretary of state. “Instead, DHS officials continue their attempts to intimidate election officials into compliance and deter voters with huge claims of fraud with no evidence. Repeating unsupported claims does not make them true.”

Trump’s job approval rating continues to drop. Fifty Plus One aggregated new polls today and found that only 34.7% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 62.1% disapprove.

Meridith McGraw, Maggie Severns, and Suzanne Vranica of the Wall Street Journal reported today that an ad airing in major U.S. markets shows Trump promising to “defeat communism, Marxism in America once and for all,” before showing images of Trump at White House events as a choir sings “Love Me.” At the end of the ad, the screen reads: “Paid for by the U.S. government.”

Former campaign finance official Daniel Weiner called the ad “an astonishing misuse of public resources in the campaign context, one of the most blatant I’ve ever seen.” Democratic lawmakers wrote to the White House demanding the ad be taken down, calling it “government propaganda” more fitting for North Korea than the U.S. and “an egregious and illegal misuse of Americans’ hard-earned tax dollars.”

According to the Wall Street Journal reporters, the White House says the ad is a “public service announcement,” “reminding Americans to love their country and understand what makes it worth defending, at home, at our borders, and abroad.”

—

Notes:

https://www.politico.com/nuews/2026/09/24/white-house-access-media-ban-ruling-01091226

https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/24/politics/live-news/white-house-press-ban-lawsuit

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/09/23/white-house-cited-anonymous-quotes-politico-ban-it-was-source/

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/24/politico-granted-white-house-access-after-being-denied-earlier-thursday-01091766

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance
Hard Pass
Just after midnight last night, Judge Kelly entered an order directing the president to unban CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House grounds. He issued a 14-day Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) restoring hard passes for journalists working for those media outlets. This is a temporary measure; the next step will be more briefing by the parties a…
Read more

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-media-ban-2677933582/

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/18/third-country-deportations-appeals-court-ruling

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/24/third-country-deportations-supreme-court-emergency-appeal

Law Dork
Breaking: DOJ goes to SCOTUS to re-start rapid third-country removals
On Thursday afternoon, the Justice Department went to the U.S. Supreme Court for the third time in a case challenging the Trump administration’s effort to quickly send people to countries where they are not a citizen and often have never even visited…
Read more

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca1.53896/gov.uscourts.ca1.53896.108510897.0.pdf

https://people.com/over-160-000-lbs-raw-meat-recalled-at-udsa-s-highest-risk-level-for-production-without-inspection-12137395

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/24/california-sheriff-ballots-chad-bianco

https://electionlawblog.org/2026/newsom-signs-bill-blocking-ballot-seizures-ahead-of-california-primary/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-administration-appeals-to-supreme-court-as-3rd-country-deportations-are-thrown-into-question

https://prospect.org/2026/09/24/judges-reject-ices-underhanded-attempt-to-maintain-third-country-removals/

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/18/third-country-deportations-appeals-court-ruling

https://apnews.com/article/ice-detention-waste-gao-report-7909a2cf777672e1483f5ed232e93cba

https://www.nysd.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Opinion%20%28Dkt%20186%29.pdf

https://www.axios.com/2026/09/24/ice-nyc-detention-center-unconstitutional-conditions

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/us/politics/nevada-voters-homeland-security-trump.html

https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/approval/president

https://www.wsj.com/politics/u-s-government-airs-pro-trump-anti-communism-ad-39cd8227?mod=bsky

Trump’s Truth:

statuses/41871

statuses/41857

statuses/41880

Bluesky:

atrupar.com/post/3mwceqev7ak2b

atrupar.com/post/3mwbqj54jv22a

danielsuitor.com/post/3mwbbiuggt22d

normeisen.bsky.social/post/3mwbtpfymnc2p

reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mwbunpcc322j

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A Good Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

As of 9am today, there were no homicides in D.C. this week. To date this year, D.C. has reported a total of 71* homicides this year. Last year, during the same time period, we had 107 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, there were 196 homicides during that same time period.

In property crimes, auto-related crimes spiked a bit, while other property crimes declined. Violent crimes remained constant. We’ll need more good weeks like this to have another 33 percent decline in homicides for the year–a rate of decline that began under Biden.

Hopefully, next week has zero homicides too.

*Three of the 74 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence).

Heroin, hitmen and black markets on Behavioral Grooves

The hosts of the podcast Behavioral Grooves open by chatting about heroin and hitmen, followed by a discussion among the three of us: 

  Behavioral Economics: When Markets Clash with Morals | Al Roth

"Horse meat, kidneys, prostitution. What happens when the things people want to buy, sell, and trade collide with what society has deemed “off-limits”? Nobel Prize-winning economist Alvin “Al” Roth joins us to explore the behavioral science behind controversial markets, from repugnance and social norms to black markets, incentives, and informed consent. We also dig into his work redesigning the kidney exchange market and how asking a different question can open up new possibilities for solving seemingly impossible problems.

Topics
[0:00] Intro and Speed Round with Alvin “Al” Roth
[9:21] What Is a Market?
[13:10] Repugnance vs. Disgust
[20:00] How Social Norms Shape Markets and Morality
[24:12] Do Laws Change Morality, or Does Morality Change Laws?
[28:25] Drugs, Hitmen, and the Social Support Behind a Ban
[34:23] Rethinking the Market for Prostitution
[38:12] Can Money Be Coercive?
[46:12] Redesigning Kidney Donation With Incentives
[50:42] What Do We Do When the Data Can't Change Minds?
[52:47] “Ought Implies Can” and the Limits of Moral Rules
[1:03:05] Grooving Session: What We Learned From Al Roth"

Moog Completes ISO Class 8 Clean Room at Niagara Falls Facility to Expand Thruster Production

Moog logo

East Aurora, NY — Moog Inc. (NYSE: MOG.A and MOG.B) announced the completion and commissioning of a new ISO Class 8 certified clean room at its Niagara Falls facility. This […]

The post Moog Completes ISO Class 8 Clean Room at Niagara Falls Facility to Expand Thruster Production appeared first on SpaceNews.

*My Dreadful Body*

By Egana Djabbarova of Azerbaijan.  A wonderful short novel, and as described by Olga Grjasnowa “An extraordinary novel that translates corporality and estrangement into language.”  Here is the Amazon link.

This has been a fantastic year for fiction, and in November I will be writing up a report.

The post *My Dreadful Body* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Reasoning together

Black and white photo of a man in glasses animatedly speaking to a group gathered around him in an indoor setting.

Jürgen Habermas, the great defender of deliberative democracy, lived up to its demands: he never feared changing his mind

- by Emilie Prattico

Read on Aeon

True or false on space industry trends with Pacôme Révillon

In this episode, SpaceNews’ Mike Gruss and Novaspace CEO Pacôme Révillon look at what to expect from the space industry in the next year by playing a game of true […]

The post True or false on space industry trends with Pacôme Révillon appeared first on SpaceNews.

The Ghosts of Five Supernovas

The Ghosts of Five Supernovas The Ghosts of Five Supernovas


Out Now: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV

Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.
Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.

Low-tech Magazine presents the fourth volume in the chronological book series. It contains twenty articles that were published online between 2022 and 2026. Three earlier volumes collect articles written and published online between 2007 and 2021, which are also bundled in the “Compressed Edition”.

This new volume is a bit different from the earlier books: eight of the articles are DIY guides or manuals, and we have grouped them together in the second part of the book. This volume covers the period that Marie Verdeil joined Low-tech Magazine, which partly shifted the focus from writing articles to building prototypes inspired by historical research. These prototypes also led us to conduct workshops in universities and participate in museum exhibitions.

As is the case with all of our books, the articles have been edited and improved compared to the original web versions. Some articles gained extra or better images. We rewrote two manuals, based on further experiences we gained since the publication of the originals. The book has 500 pages and contains 405 images in black and white.

You can order Low-tech Magazine Volume IV at our online bookstore, available as paperback and hardcover. The ebook is not yet available.

Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.
Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.

Contents table

ARTICLES:

MANUALS and GUIDES:

With contributions by: Kris De Decker, Marie Verdeil, Guillaume Lion, Kozimo, Andy Lagzdins.

The book design is a collaborative effort by Laia Comellas, Marie Verdeil, and Johanna Gratzer. Marie Verdeil made the cover, Vaiva Vinskaitė did the typesetting.

Earlier volumes:

Patrons have free access to all ebooks, and early access to print books at a reduced price. They also receive exclusive content, which includes previews of new building projects and behind-the-scenes news.

Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume I, II, III & IV  (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.
Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume I, II, III & IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.

Oh my goodness I can't believe it

Oh my goodness I can't believe it

I have exciting news.

View on my website

Armenia notes

I strongly recommend a trip to Armenia, now is a great time to go.  Here are a few things I noticed:

1. The country remains intellectual.  The book fair is well attended.  The classical music season is excellent, with good concerts multiple times a week, and the theatre scene, in both Armenian and Russian, is active.  The country has only a little more than three million people, yet they have won gold medal in the chess Olympiad three times in recent memory.  You could say the country has maintained the (few) strengths of the former Soviet Union, and is arguably the only place that has.  It feels more like the former Soviet Union than Russia does.

2. The National Gallery has excellent Soviet and Russian paintings, while their Armenian collection is definitive.  The Medieval Manuscripts museum is first-rate.  Unfortunately, neither does anything to put images online, but all the more reason to go.

3. Armenian society is nearly 100% white and 100% Christian, as most of the immigrants (is that the right word here?) are Russian.  Crime is close to zero, and the cars stop when you try to cross the street.  Being a loyal northern Virginian, that mix is not “my thing.”  But if that is what you wish to experience, if only briefly, Armenia is the place that serves it up without apology.  Even secular Armenians have great respect for the national Apostolic church, as they view it as a guardian of Armenian independence.

4. The old monasteries are A level sights, and many of them are mere day trips from Yerevan, the capital.  Most of the tourists you see at these are Russians, not Westerners.  You also will see some Iranian tourists.

5. Yerevan is not great for old buildings, but the city is very walkable and pleasant and lively.  I believe the winters are brutal, but September there is wonderful, every day was perfect weather.

5b. In Armenia you will see how their brutalism in fact comes from their earlier religious architectural traditions, and how the newer churches embody modern brutalist ideas as well.  I found this very interesting.

6. I have a separate piece coming out on food in Armenia, for now I will just say it is excellent and novel as well.

7. Armenia is not dirt cheap, but it is much cheaper than most of Europe and so can be considered a bargain in relative terms.

8. Almost everyone in Yerevan speaks good Russian.  The influence of Russia is embedded in virtually every institution, people like Russia, Russia supplies most of their energy, and is the number one trading partner.  Russian troops protect them from Turkey.  A Russian does not even need a passport to enter and live in Armenia.  Russia is a permanent fixture in Armenian life, and most people do not seem to mind that.  They are very disappointed that Putin did not protect them more in the war with Azerbaijan, but that is their major source of discontent, not that Russia and Putin are evil.

9. Armenia has close relations with Iran, and Armenians do not seem to hate Iran.  They regard the country as a partial counterweight to Turkey, and for that matter Russia.  People in Armenia are very conscious of the x-risk represented by Turkey.  They also will speak to you about history in great detail, and they are very wrapped up in their past history.  They are very familiar with maps.

10. You can see Mount Ararat, supposed resting place of Noah’s Ark, from the outskirts of Yerevan.  It is beautiful.  It remains on the Armenian currency, and in the hearts of Armenians, yet it is now part of Turkey and is very likely to remain so.  Armenians refer to that part of Turkey as “Western Armenia.”

11. Here is someone else’s exaggerated take on the place, no it will not be the next Poland.

I would put it this way.  At any point in time, there are a few parts of the world that are perfect for visiting and viewing.  They should be comfortable, but still exotic and not overtouristed.  Not dangerous, and not too full of hassles, yet replete with challenging and stimulating experiences.  Yunnan in China is one such place.  Currently, aAzerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia all fit this designation.  They all have complex histories, and are not always in great shape, so now is the time to go.  They will never get better to visit, and right now they are pretty close to perfect as destinations.  See what you can, while you can.

The post Armenia notes appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Explosive Intensification for Hurricane Polo

modis
mur sst
Hurricane Polo, with a well-defined eye, swirls over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico. The storm was positioned just south of Acapulco, with its outer cloud bands extending inland toward Mexico City.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A map depicts sea surface temperature anomalies off Mexico's Pacific coast on September 23. Deep red areas highlight areas 3°C above the norm for that date. A dotted line traces the storm's path from September 20 to September 23 as it moved through the unusually warm waters.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
Hurricane Polo, with a well-defined eye, swirls over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico. The storm was positioned just south of Acapulco, with its outer cloud bands extending inland toward Mexico City.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A map depicts sea surface temperature anomalies off Mexico's Pacific coast on September 23. Deep red areas highlight areas 3°C above the norm for that date. A dotted line traces the storm's path from September 20 to September 23 as it moved through the unusually warm waters.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
modis
mur sst
After rapidly intensifying, Hurricane Polo spins off Mexico’s Pacific coast on September 23, 2026 (left), over unusually warm waters (right). NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using data from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Aqua satellite and the MUR SST (Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature) project.

In mid-September 2026, Hurricane Polo began as a tropical disturbance off the Pacific coast of Mexico. By September 20, it was organized enough to qualify as a tropical depression, and by the next day it was a tropical storm.

From there, Polo launched into a period of rapid intensification that left meteorologists searching for adjectives strong enough to convey what was happening. Some described the storm’s rate of intensification and strength as “jaw-dropping,” others as “astonishing,” and others as “absolute insanity.”  

“Polo went through a period of what can only be described as explosively rapid intensification,” said Gary Partyka, an atmospheric scientist with the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, in an email. “This was RAPID, rapid intensification.”

The storm was in an environment that was “near perfect” for strengthening, Partyka said, characterized by weak wind shear, high moisture, warmer ocean temperatures, and high levels of atmospheric instability.

Several observers leaned on extreme rapid intensification—a technical classification meaning the storm’s wind speeds increased at least 60 knots (111 kilometers or 69 miles per hour) within a 24-hour period. By September 22, the storm’s maximum sustained wind speed had risen by 90 knots (167 kilometers per hour or 104 miles per hour) within 24 hours, hitting category 5 strength. In its normally staid forecast discussions, the National Hurricane Center called the intensification “truly remarkable.”

When NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew over the storm on September 22, researchers estimated winds of nearly 285 kilometers (180 miles) per hour. That would make it the third-strongest storm on record in the eastern Pacific by maximum sustained winds and the fastest on record to go from a tropical depression to a category 5 storm, according to some analysts.

On the afternoon of September 23, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image (left), Polo was churning off the coast of Guerrero, southwest of Acapulco. With maximum sustained winds of 230 kilometers (145 miles) per hour, the storm was category 4 strength when the image was acquired, having undergone an eyewall replacement cycle that weakened it slightly.

“The satellite imagery of Polo is very impressive, with the storm’s large, clear eye and extensive outflow pattern,” said Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric scientist at the State University of New York at Albany, who is working on a NASA project that uses satellite data to study tropical cyclone ventilation. “Weak winds above the system and good outflow at the top of the system also contributed to Polo’s rapid intensification.”

As Polo developed, it moved over areas where sea surface temperatures were as high as 32 degrees Celsius (90 degrees Fahrenheit)—2 to 3 degrees warmer than usual for September 23. Surface waters across much of the region were above 27.8°C (82°F), the temperature generally required to sustain and intensify hurricanes.

The map above (right) is based on data from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) project at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which blends satellite measurements from NASA, NOAA, and international missions with observations from ships and buoys. Rather than absolute temperatures, the map shows anomalies—how much warmer or cooler the ocean surface was on September 23, 2026, than the project’s 2003-2014 average for that date.

While the map above conveys temperatures at the water surface, the presence of warm water deeper in the column has likely contributed to the storm’s staying power, Corbosiero added. Sometimes hurricanes churn up cooler water from deep in the column that can slow a storm’s intensification, but in this case the cool water wake behind the storm appears minimal, and measurements and models show high ocean heat content at considerable depths.

Both Partyka and Corbosiero cautioned against attributing Polo’s rapid intensification directly to El Niño’s unusually warm surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Several hurricanes in this region have undergone rapid intensification in the past during La Niña and neutral conditions, Corbosiero noted, including Hurricane Otis in 2023 and Patricia in 2015, both category 5 storms.  

However, the overall amount of tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific does typically increase during El Niño due to changes in large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, and that’s what has happened so far in 2026. As of September 24, the accumulated cyclone energy in the region was nearly twice the norm, according to data from Colorado State University.

People tracking sea surface temperature anomalies or other aspects of the storm can do so using NASA’s Worldview browser, a near real-time data viewer from the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project, and the FLUID tool from GMAO. Forecasters expect Polo to stay over the Pacific until next week, when it may curve toward the northeast and approach Baja California.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using sea surface temperature data from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) project, MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview, and storm track data from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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The post Explosive Intensification for Hurricane Polo appeared first on NASA Science.

datasette 1.0a41

Release: datasette 1.0a41

Alec Garcia added support for OpenTelemetry to Datasette in this release.

I've also refactored all of Datasette's modal dialogs to a single Web Component, which is now documented for other plugins to use.

Tags: javascript, datasette, web-components, alex-garcia, opentelemetry

Donald the Deadbeat Does Diesel

There’s a strong whiff of desperation coming off the Republican Party these days, and it smells a lot like diesel fumes. All indications are that the G.O.P. is headed for a huge defeat in the midterms, and soaring prices of fuel — especially diesel — are a significant factor in the party’s dim prospects.

Now Trump is considering an export ban of American diesel in order to temporarily reduce domestic diesel prices. As of this morning, it’s unclear whether this will actually happen. But I think a diesel export ban is highly likely, and not just because it would be one of the few Hail Mary plays left for an epically corrupt president who must greatly fear the prospect of facing Democrats with subpoena power and criminal referrals.

Beyond that, a sudden ban on diesel exports would, in effect, be a broken promise — a de facto breach of multiple contracts. It would be a betrayal of energy companies that invested in refining capacity. More important, it would be a breach of trust with America’s allies, especially anyone who bought into Trump’s vision of an America-centered energy future.

And breaking trust, breaching contracts, is a very Trumpian thing to do. As a businessman, he was famous for stiffing contractors, refusing to pay them for their work or demanding that they settle for partial payment. His tariff policies involve, at their core, breaking decades’ worth of solemn international agreements. His track record on domestic policy has been one broken promise after another.

Before I get to the breach of contract aspect, a word about the short-term economics of a diesel export ban.

Jared Bernstein has a really clear explanation of why such a ban would do little to help most Americans with affordability problems. Much of it comes down to regional differences. U.S. diesel exports come from the Gulf Coast, and cutting off those exports would indeed temporarily reduce diesel prices in and around Texas, while driving prices up in the rest of the world. But in this case “the rest of the world” includes much of the United States. Both the Northeast and the West Coast buy much of their diesel (and heating oil, which is a closely related commodity) from other countries, so a ban on U.S. exports, by driving up world prices, would actually make energy more expensive in some parts of the country.

Also, refineries normally produce gasoline along with diesel, so if an export ban causes them to cut overall refining, gasoline prices might well go up.

Beyond these short-term considerations, think about the signals a diesel export ban would send.

During the 2024 campaign, “Drill, baby, drill” was one of Trump’s favorite slogans. In effect, he promised to provide a favorable political environment for the fossil fuel industry, which he claimed would cut energy prices in half within 18 months. (How’s that going?) But now even the oil industry knows that it can’t count on being able to sell its products, that Trump may suddenly, with no notice, cut it off from major markets whenever he thinks that might be to his short-term political advantage.

OK, nobody is going to shed tears for the U.S. oil and gas industry, which gave 88 percent of its donations to Republicans in the last election and has profited hugely from the effects of the Iran War. But even unlikable industries should be able to count on some consistency in government policy, rather than depending on the whims of a president motivated solely by ephemeral political considerations.

More important, think about what Trump is in effect saying to the world as a whole.

As I and many others have written, one key aspect of today’s geopolitics has been a competition between two visions of the world’s energy future. One vision centers on “electrotech” — electrification of cars and much else, powered by sun and wind. Given current trends, an electrotech world would be one largely dominated by Chinese production of solar panels, batteries and more.

The other vision involves continuing reliance on fossil fuels, with the United States — thanks to fracking — as a key supplier. The United States is, in effect, saying to the world, “never mind those wind farms and electric vehicles, keep installing gas turbines and using internal combustion — and don’t worry about where the fuel will come from, we can and will supply it. Trust us!”

Now the world knows that we can’t, in fact, be trusted as an energy supplier — that we may suddenly cut off fossil fuel exports whenever doing so might yield even temporary domestic political advantage.

So a diesel export ban would probably do little to assuage U.S. concerns about affordability. It would create uncertainty that deters business investment, in energy and other industries. And it would further weaken America’s hand in its geopolitical rivalry with China over energy.

In short, a ban would be a really bad idea. Which is why it’s probably going to happen.

MUSICAL CODA

Nothing to do with topic, but an old favorite.

commit-rewriter 0.2

Release: commit-rewriter 0.2

Support for branches other than the default branch. Use uvx commit-rewriter --branch other to run against another branch. #3

Tags: git

Malicious npm Packages That Evade Defenses

This is an impressive piece of malware. Its sophistication says nation-state to me, but there is no direct evidence and certainly no attribution.

Joanna Stern Interviews Mark Zuckerberg

Great interview from Stern, as usual, seemingly conducted on the old set of Three’s Company. She opened by asking if AI is going to wipe out humanity, and I think Zuck whiffed by not simply laughing and saying no. She also directly asked his thoughts on people calling Meta Glasses “pervert glasses”.

Regarding the shift from “the metaverse” to AI, Zuckerberg likened it to Apple having started work on touchscreen tablets and then pivoting to turn the technology into the iPhone first. His point being that it’s not that iPads weren’t a big successful idea, but they’re not as big as phones.

There are four big players in consumer AI: Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. I don’t think Zuckerberg mentioned any of the others by name — neither in his Meta Connect keynote, nor in this interview with Stern. But much of what he unveiled and explained, in both, makes the case for Meta as the leader in this space. Compared to Google, Meta is highly focused and Google is seemingly utterly unfocused. Focus matters when you’re trying to ship something new while exploring uncharted territory. Compared to OpenAI and Anthropic, Meta has consumer-product chops. If there’s no moat around the AI model technology — and I’m ever more convinced there is not — it’ll be the products AI is wrapped into that matter.

 ★ 

Meta Connect Keynote 2026

Meta’s annual keynote yesterday was a tight 55-minute live event held on their campus in Menlo Park. I watched the whole thing this morning, before recording tomorrow’s episode of Dithering. (Which you should subscribe to.)

It was a good keynote. Consumer products announced:

  • Third-generation Meta Glasses with cameras.

  • A new glasses product: Ray-Ban Meta Audio. These are audio-only smart glasses, with microphones and speakers, but no camera. Zuckerberg pitched them as being less expensive, having longer battery life, and looking much more like regular glasses. All of those things are true, but he deftly avoided the privacy backlash against glasses with cameras. They’re not that much less expensive than the camera models, starting at $350.

  • Meta VR Glasses. Slogan: “The weight is over.” Some similarities to Vision Pro: use cases include immersive movies and sports, virtual displays for computing, and gaming; the computer is a thick phone-sized puck connected to the glasses via a cable. Some significant differences from Vision Pro: Meta VR Glasses only weigh 100g; Vision Pro weighs 750–800g. It’s almost an order of magnitude difference by weight. Also: these are only going to cost $1,300. Not out yet, coming in “spring”. I used to think I’d at least use my Vision Pro when I fly, but I haven’t taken it with me on a flight in two years. It’s too big and too heavy — a small piece of carry-on luggage unto itself. By dint of their weight alone, Meta VR Glasses seem far more comfortable, and also far more portable. They look a lot more like regular sunglasses than Vision Pro (or Meta’s own Quest goggles) — but they definitely don’t look like regular sunglasses.

  • Meta Charm. A pendant/stopwatch-sized thing with a screen and fingerprint reader, that serves as a dedicated device for interacting with Muse. Will supposedly have 5G cellular connectivity in addition to Wi-Fi, but it’s not a phone. Vaporware at the moment but supposedly shipping by December. No price given. My daily “World in Brief” newsletter from The Economist described Charm thus: “Imagine a tiny smartphone that can’t do 95% of the things that the one in your pocket can.”

The star of the show wasn’t any of the hardware products but Meta Muse. Muse is the through line for Meta this year. If there’s one thing I think Zuckerberg did wrong in the keynote, it’s that he didn’t explain where Muse stands compared to Meta AI. I’m pretty sure that the answer is that Muse, as an AI agent, is a superset of Meta AI, a mere chatbot. If you use Muse, you should have no reason to use Meta AI; if you use Meta AI, Zuckerberg should have encouraged you to upgrade to Muse. I think that’s the gist. But it would have been good for Zuckerberg to explain it.

 ★ 

‘Apple Opens Apple Music Hall, a State-of-the-Art Live Music Venue in London’

Apple Newsroom:

Apple today announced the opening of Apple Music Hall, a brand-new state-of-the-art live music venue in London’s storied Battersea Power Station, designed to connect artists and fans through bespoke, intimate performances unlike anywhere else.

Apple might be the most interesting architecture company in the world this century. They have a core look and feel they apply to their own facilities built from the ground up (e.g., Apple Park, certain flagship retail stores), but they also have tremendous respect for historic buildings they take over.

The balconies in Apple Music Hall are bronze, but the lighting (at least in Apple’s photos) is so warm that the balconies look a little like giant Mac Minis.

 ★ 

Copland D11E4, Emulated in Your Browser

Michael Steil:

Apple’s ill-fated Copland operating system is notoriously hard to run on real hardware, and has not previously been available in emulation. Here is the last build, D11E4 from June 1996, in an improved DingusPPC.

Playing around with the GXSlidemaster app, I found a bug. The keyboard shortcut for File → Print One is ⌥⌘P, but the menu manager displays it as ⌘π (because Option-P is how you type a lowercase pi; add Shift to get an uppercase pi (∏)). I should file a Radar.

Anyway, I don’t think I’ve ever used Copland before. It wasn’t just hard to run on real hardware, but hard to get. It’s fun but kind of gross to see it boot up spewing console detritus rendered in good old bitmapped Monaco 9 (inside windows — even as an early developer build Apple was still Apple). There’s really not much there there, though. The only work they’d accomplished was under the hood, and there’s seemingly nothing of actual interest in the user interface.

 ★ 

Peter Thiel on AI and tech stagnation and democracy

Lots of fresh material, one of the very best Peter Thiel outputs.

The post Peter Thiel on AI and tech stagnation and democracy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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A Quick Poll Follow Up

I promise not to be writing a post about every new theory or hot take about contemporary polling. And I’ll make this one quick. Nate Silver has a post up today (I think paywalled) in response to a new batch of polls released by Times/Siena. These polls are broadly in line with other recent polls, with the exception that they show Susan Collins a few points ahead in Maine. But Silver notes something interesting: in Blue States November looks like a wave while in Red States it looks like a Tsunami. Is that odd? Not necessarily. There are three or four very concrete reasons that explain that why would be the case – stuff with shifts in specific constituencies, etc. But it’s also true that when we talk about poll misses in recent cycles some of the most extreme ones were in Red States. So perhaps the Tsunami is a mirage? My best guess is that that is not the case. And Silver doesn’t really seem to think so either. But I think it’s worth keeping in the back of our collective minds. As I noted in yesterday’s piece, the best evidence that a big storm is coming is that Republicans themselves are telling us one’s coming. They’re telling us with their actions. I think they know. Of course, at a more fundamental level none of us know the future.

Victoria Song on Meta Muse’s Cuteness

Victoria Song, in her Optimizer column/newsletter for The Verge:

I’ve been aggressively avoiding Muse since it launched a few weeks ago. Sure, some of that is because I was busy testing other devices. But the number-one reason why is that I am horribly vulnerable when faced with extreme cuteness.

Alas, at Meta Connect, I couldn’t escape this pink-cheeked fella with his plush ivory fur, and so I finally downloaded the app once I returned to my hotel room. He was plastered on every screen during the keynote. My eye twitched with maximum cute aggression when Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth showed us his Muse agent Cooper. The duderino was dressed in a lil pilot outfit because he’s Boz’s test pilot. My face scrunched with rage when Cooper picked up his pudgy round arms to wave. It’s the cutest thing I’ve ever seen at a tech keynote. The tiny demon in my head thought to itself, “I WANT TO SQUISH ITS LITTLE FACE.” [...]

Most people I know would say that Meta stuffing an AI agent into everything and anything feels sinister. Now look at Jolly’s little smile. Tell me it doesn’t make the corners of your mouth twitch slightly upward. If you honestly say no, you’re stronger than I am.

What attracted Song to Muse is what has, to be honest, turned me off. I don’t think it’s because I’m stronger than Song. I just think it’s weird that Muse wants me to give it a name and design a cartoon mascot for it. My impression of Muse isn’t that it’s even vaguely cute. I’m not trying to be obtuse here. I see that it’s supposed to be cute. I can see why some people see it as cute in the way it’s clearly intended to be cute. But I just see it as phony. And I despise phoniness as much as Holden Caulfield did.

My wife and son both love cilantro. I can’t stand it. I’m one of those people who thinks it tastes not just like soap, but soap that I’d regret washing my hands with because if I did I’d hate how my hands smell and I’d want to find another sink with different soap to scrub that off. I don’t have better taste than my wife or son. (My wife says quite the opposite.) It just registers differently for me.

Muse’s cutesy appearance and tone hits my mind like cilantro hits my tongue. I want my humans and animals warm, and my computers cold. Fun? Sure! But not cute. That’s a fine line between fun and cute, but I know it when I see it, just as surely as I know when something has cilantro in it.

 ★ 

Thursday 24 September 1663

Up betimes, and after taking leave of my brother, John, who went from me to my father’s this day, I went forth by water to Sir Philip Warwick’s, where I was with him a pretty while; and in discourse he tells me, and made it appear to me, that the King cannot be in debt to the Navy at this time 5,000l.; and it is my opinion that Sir G. Carteret do owe the King money, and yet the whole Navy debt paid. Thence I parted, being doubtful of myself that I have not, spoke with the gravity and weight that I ought to do in so great a business. But I rather hope it is my doubtfulness of myself, and the haste which he was in, some very great personages waiting for him without, while he was with me, that made him willing to be gone. To the office by water, where we sat doing little, now Mr. Coventry is not here, but only vex myself to see what a sort of coxcombs we are when he is not here to undertake such a business as we do. In the afternoon telling my wife that I go to Deptford, I went, by water to Westminster Hall, and there finding Mrs. Lane, took her over to Lambeth, where we were lately, and there, did what I would with her, but only the main thing, which she would not consent to, for which God be praised … [and yet I came so near, that I was provoked to spend. – L&M] But, trust in the Lord, I shall never do so again while I live. After being tired with her company I landed her at White Hall, and so home and at my office writing letters till 12 at night almost, and then home to supper and bed, and there found my poor wife hard at work, which grieved my heart to see that I should abuse so good a wretch, and that is just with God to make her bad with me for my wrongin of her, but I do resolve never to do the like again. So to bed.

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No, you are not on Indigenous land

I’ve been dealing with more rabbit problems today, so here’s a repost to tide you over til tomorrow.

The Republican party has become an extremist party. ICE’s brutal campaign of terror in American communities, Trump’s attacks on press freedoms and election integrity, the coup attempt of 1/6/2021, Trump’s military threats toward Greenland, and friendliness toward Vladimir Putin are only a few of the more prominent examples of this extremism. And they’re probably going to be punished for it in November; polls show rapidly deteriorating support for both Donald Trump and the GOP that has fallen in behind him.

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Good. Extremism ought to be punished. I’ll have lots more to say about the Republicans’ failures in the days to come.

But even though Democrats deserve to win, that doesn’t mean they’re free from the creeping extremism that has taken over essentially all of American politics and public discourse in the age of social media. Although Dems are not nearly as extremist as the GOP, they have become a much more ideologically extreme party than they were during the days of Obama. Dems’ extremist positions include dogged opposition to any form of effective immigration enforcement, tolerance of systematic (and systemic) racial discrimination, various trans issues, and…land acknowledgements.

Land acknowledgements? Really?? Isn’t that just a respectful way of acknowledging that the land we’re on used to belong to Indigenous people? Isn’t it just a way of saying “Hey Indigenous people, we haven’t forgotten you”?

Well…no. As I wrote in a post two years ago — still one of my most popular posts of all time — land acknowledgements don’t just recognize Indigenous people. They are a way of fundamentally delegitimizing the United States — of declaring that this is a country that has no right to exist. And beyond that, land acknowledgements implicitly advance a theory of collective racial ownership of territory that is morally indistinguishable from the worst blood-and-soil nationalism of the racist far Right.

Nor are land acknowledgements a fringe practice, limited to progressive cultural spaces. As Dave Weigel recently reported, they have become a sort of ritualistic utterance at Democratic Party events:

Democrats' decision to formalize land acknowledgments in their party meetings could haunt their candidates more than they realize…A tradition of naming historic Native tribes during regional events that started in Australia before spreading to Canada, arriving in the US via art exhibitions, is now part of every major party event…The 2016 Democratic convention did not contain a land acknowledgment. But the practice of beginning events with a nod to slaughtered tribes and "stolen" land spread during President Barack Obama's second term and Trump's first term, along with other progressive ideas about race and history…Democrats did not have campus conferences where they agreed to embrace language that conservatives see as anti-American…They just adopted the terminology when activists told them it was a good idea.

Land acknowledgements are not a big electoral issue. But in the long term, they represent — and contribute to — the creeping rise of anti-American and illiberal ideology on the broad American left. That will probably be an electoral liability at some point, but more fundamentally, it’s a departure from the liberal nationalist ideology that made the Democrats such an effective governing party in the 20th century.

So anyway, here’s my post from 2024.


The United States, like all nations, was created through territorial conquest. Most of its current territory was occupied or frequented by human beings before the U.S. came; the U.S. used force to either displace, subjugate, or kill all of those people. To the extent that land “ownership” existed under the previous inhabitants, the land of the U.S. is stolen land.

This was also true before the U.S. arrived. The forcible theft of the land upon which the U.S. now exists was not the first such theft; the people who lived there before conquered, displaced, or killed someone else in order to take the land. The land has been stolen and re-stolen again and again. If you somehow destroyed the United States, expelled its current inhabitants, and gave ownership of the land to the last recorded tribe that had occupied it before, you would not be returning it to its original occupants; you would simply be handing it to the next-most-recent conquerors.

If you go back far enough in time, of course, at some point this is no longer true. Humanity didn’t always exist; therefore for every piece of land, there was a first human to lay eyes on it, and a first human to say “This land is mine.” But by what right did this first human claim exclusive ownership of this land? Why does being the first person to see a natural object make you the rightful owner of that object? And why does being the first human to set foot on a piece of land give your blood descendants the right to dispose of that land as they see fit in perpetuity, and to exclude any and all others from that land? What about all the peoples of the world who were never lucky enough to be the first to lay eyes on any plot of dirt? Are they simply to be dispossessed forever?

I have never seen a satisfactory answer to these questions. Nor have I seen a satisfactory explanation of why ownership of land should be allocated collectively, in terms of racial or ethnic groups. In general, the first people who arrived on a piece of land did so in dribs and drabs, in small family units and tiny micro-tribes that met and married and fought and mixed and formed into larger identities and ethnicities and tribes over long periods of time. In most cases, the ethnic groups who now claim pieces of land as their own did not even exist when the first humans discovered or settled that land.

But even in those cases when it did exist, why should land ownership be assigned to a race at all? Why should my notional blood relation to the discoverers or the conquerors of a piece of land determine whether I can truly belong on that land? Why should a section of the map be the land of the Franks, or the Russkiy, or the Cherokee, or the Han, or the Ramaytush Ohlone, or the Britons? Of course you can assign land ownership this way — it’s called an “ethnostate”. But if you do this, it means that the descendants of immigrants can never truly be full and equal citizens of the land they were born in. If Britain is defined as the land of the Britons, then a Han person whose great-great-great-grandparents moved there from China will exist as a contingent citizen — a perpetual foreigner whose continued life in the land of their birth exists only upon the sufferance of a different race. This is the price of ethnonationalism.

The downsides of ethnonationalism have been exhaustively laid out in the decades since World War 2, and I’m not going to reiterate them all now. Suffice it to say that most nations of the world have moved away from ethnonationalism — there is an informal sense in which some people still think of France as the land of the Franks and so on, but almost all nations define citizenship and belonging through institutions rather than race. Israel, one of the few exceptions to this rule, receives a large amount of international criticism for defining itself as an ethnostate.

And yet these days I am subjected to a constant stream of ethnonationalist claims from progressives in the country of my birth. Here’s one from the ACLU of Nebraska:

And here’s an Instagram post from Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib:

This isn’t just something you see on social media around Thanksgiving. “Land acknowledgements” have become ubiquitous in progressive spaces and institutions — just the other day I saw one at my friend’s community dance recital.

These land acknowledgements are, legally speaking, incorrect — there is no legal sense in which the land on which they are being performed belongs to a Native American tribe. These are moral claims about rightful land ownership. But the moral principle to which they appeal is ethnonationalism — it’s the idea that plots of land are the rightful property of ethnic groups.

There is an obvious moral appeal to these land acknowledgments. They are a way of decrying the brutal, cruel, violent history of conquest and colonization. And they probably feel like a way of standing up for the weak, the marginalized, and the dispossessed.

Yet what should we think of the morality of following the principles behind land acknowledgements to their logical conclusion? “Decolonization” of the land of the U.S. would likely be an act of ethnic cleansing surpassing even the previous conquests — there are 330 million people here now, and almost none of them descend from Native Americans. An attempt to dispossess 330 million people would inevitably involve violence on a colossal scale. Here was Najma Sharif Alawi’s famous tweet right after the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel:

Of course, “colonizers” could presumably avoid violent death or second-class citizenhood by voluntarily deporting themselves. But where would they go? Take me, for example. My ancestors were Lithuanian Jews. I could leave the country of my birth and go “back” to Lithuania — a land I don’t know, whose language I don’t speak. Yet my ancestors were not “indigenous” to Lithuania either; they moved there from somewhere else. What if the ethnic Lithuanians chose not to accept me? Where would I go then? Israel? But the folks who do land acknowledgements would consider me a “colonizer” there as well.1

Would I then wander the Earth, desperately seeking some ethnostate that would allow me and my descendants to live there as a permanently precarious resident aliens?

Once the logic of land acknowledgements and “decolonization” is followed, it leads very quickly to some very dark futures. Assigning each person a homeland based on their ethnic ancestry, and then declaring that that homeland is the only place they or their descendants can ever truly belong, would not be an act of justice; it would be a global nightmare made real, surpassing even the horrors of previous centuries.

And in practice, any attempt to create such a world would inevitably lead to violent resistance by the groups in danger of being “decolonized”. The orderly world of nation-states would dissolve into a chaotic free-for-all of competing irredentist claims, backed by genocides and expulsions. Ten thousand October 7th-style attacks would be followed by ten thousand Gaza-style wars.

I do not want that, and you should not want it either. The American people certainly don’t want it, and the insistence of progressives on intoning land acknowledgements has probably tanked the movement’s cachet in wider society. I agree with “Wanye Burkett” when he says that land acknowledgements have probably hurt the Democratic party:

Americans do not want to see their country destroyed in the name of irredentist ethnonationalism. Nor do I blame them.

So does this mean we should paper over, ignore, or deliberately forget America’s history of violent conquest? Absolutely not. That history ought to be remembered, so that we don’t repeat it in the present day. The world’s evolution from one based on ethnic cleansing and territorial conquest to one based on fixed borders and institutions is something to celebrate — and something we must fight to preserve. We need to remember what the world used to be like, precisely so we can avoid backsliding. The most recent of conquests, expulsions, and genocides should be the last to ever happen.

And what of the Native Americans who still live in America today? Must they simply be regarded as the unlucky losers of history, and told to either assimilate into broader American society or shut up?

Absolutely not. For one thing, tribal organizations still exist — they may notionally represent ethnic groups, but they are institutions. And they are institutions with which the United States has many agreements and legal obligations that must be honored, which often give the tribes sovereignty over areas of land. Neil Gorsuch has been especially active in pushing the Supreme Court to uphold tribal rights, and I think this is a good thing.

But respect for Native American tribal organizations doesn’t have to stop at ancient obligations. There are ways to incorporate those tribes into the modern American nation that both respects them and their history and helps them prosper in the present.

Vancouver, Canada shows us an example of how this can be done. Part of Vancouver’s downtown urban area is officially under the governance of the Squamish Nation, rather than the city itself. The Squamish Nation, realizing they could do whatever they wanted with that land, decided to build a giant high-rise housing development:

Over the next few years, that skyline will get a very large new addition: Sen̓áḵw, an 11-tower development that will [put] 6,000 apartments onto just over 10 acres of land in the heart of the city. Once complete, this will be the densest neighbourhood in Canada, providing thousands of homes for Vancouverites who have long been squeezed between the country’s priciest real estate and some of its lowest vacancy rates.

Sen̓áḵw is big, ambitious and undeniably urban—and undeniably Indigenous. It’s being built on reserve land owned by the Squamish First Nation, and it’s spearheaded by the Squamish Nation itself, in partnership with the private real estate developer Westbank. Because the project is on First Nations land, not city land, it’s under Squamish authority, free of Vancouver’s zoning rules. And the Nation has chosen to build bigger, denser and taller than any development on city property would be allowed.

Here’s a picture of what it will look like:

Source: Sen̓áḵw

An even bigger development called Jericho Lands is now being planned, by a consortium of tribal organizations, on land officially owned by Vancouver.

Hilariously, Vancouver’s NIMBYs are complaining, claiming that the developments are not in keeping with Indigenous tradition. But Canada’s First Nations seem to have little interest in hewing closely to other people’s view of what their traditions are. Modern people do not want to live like premodern farmers. They are not mystical Tolkien elves. They would like to have shiny new apartment buildings and walkable neighborhoods.

This, I believe, is the key to respecting and honoring Native Americans — not to focus on the tragedies of their past, but to give them the right to build a better future. Tribal lands should definitely have the autonomy to do whatever they want with their lands, including building housing or industry. In fact, we’re starting to see a pattern emerge where Native Americans embrace laissez-faire policies toward industry and manage to poach business from their over-regulated neighbors:

Tesla is ramping up efforts to open showrooms on tribal lands where it can sell directly to consumers, circumventing laws in states that bar vehicle manufacturers from also being retailers in favor of the dealership model…

Mohegan Sun, a casino and entertainment complex in Connecticut owned by the federally recognized Mohegan Tribe, announced this week that the California-based electric automaker will open a showroom with a sales and delivery center this fall on its sovereign property where the state’s law doesn’t apply…The news comes after another new Tesla showroom was announced in June, set to open in 2025 on lands of the Oneida Indian Nation in upstate New York.

This sort of thing could lead to a win-win for the U.S. and Native American tribes. American reindustrialization is being held back by a thicket of procedural requirements and local land-use regulations; if tribes were able to use their special legal status to circumvent those barriers, it could end up benefitting everyone.2 The tribes would get both jobs and the ability to tax local industry; America would get to execute an end run around the NIMBYs that are holding it back.

In fact, it’s probably possible for various American cities to turn over parts of their land to tribal jurisdiction, with the assistance of the federal government. This would probably result in dense urban developments like the ones being planned in Vancouver. But even if it didn’t, it could have other commercial benefits — again, a win-win for the U.S. and for the tribes. That would certainly be a lot more substantive than a bunch of land acknowledgements. And it would likely satisfy many people’s desire for “giving land back” to Native Americans, without embracing dubious moral principles of ethnic land rights and irredentism.

In other words, you’re not living on Indigenous land right now, but you could be in the future — and it might be pretty great.

The general principle here is that instead of a dark world of ethnic cleansing in the name of “decolonization”, we should try to build a bright future where Native Americans and the United States of America exist in harmony and cooperation rather than in conflict. And that principle doesn’t just apply to America, but to the whole world. The history of land ownership is a violent and terrible one, but that doesn’t mean the future has to be more of the same.


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1

It is a bitter irony that many of the same people who morally condemn Israel for setting itself up as an ethnostate also justify its destruction using ethnonationalist principles. Personally, I tend to agree with the criticism of Israel’s ethnocentrism, but I don’t think replacing this with Palestinian ethnocentrism would make things better.

2

There’s a lot of historical precedent for this. For example, in the 1960s, Fairchild Semiconductor opened a factory on Navajo land in New Mexico, which was quite beneficial to the economy until an industry downturn and a labor dispute led to its demise in the late 70s.

NASA announces new space telescope ‘PRIMA’ to launch in 2033

An artist’s rendering of the PRIMA Observatory. Graphic: NASA/JPL-Caltech

On the heels of launching its Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, NASA announced a new observatory, the Probe far-Infrared Mission for Astrophysics or PRIMA.

The agency said Wednesday PRIMA was moving into what’s referred to as Phase B development. That allows for further development of the preliminary design and for NASA to conduct technical and budget reviews.

If approved, PRIMA will move forward into Phase C with a max project cost of $1.2 billion, not including launch and other costs.

PRIMA also ushers in a new class of missions within NASA’s Explorers Program: Probe Explorers. It will be developed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in collaboration with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and Marshall Space Flight Center as well as the space agencies of Canada, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.

The California Institute of Technology’s (Caltech) Infrared Processing & Analysis Center (IPAC) is designated as the mission science center “where raw data from the telescope is received, processed, and archived for use by astronomers seeking to answer some of the universe’s deepest mysteries,” according to Caltech.

“The PRIMA mission is humanity’s next window into the deep universe. It will unveil the obscure across cosmic time to better understand the formation of planets, stars, black holes, and even how water on Earth came to be,” said Nicky Fox, associate administrator, Science Mission Directorate, NASA Headquarters in Washington.

PRIMA features three primary instruments for observations:

  • A cryogenically cooled 1.8-meter telescope
  • An imaging polarimeter (PRIMAger)
  • A high-resolution spectrometer (FIRESS)

The detectors stem from three decades of research conducted by Caltech and JPL (managed by Caltech). They helped develop the type of detectors featured on PRIMA that will allow it to operate its far-infrared cameras and spectrometer.

“PRIMA represents a giant leap for far-infrared astronomy,” said Caltech President Ray Jayawardhana. “By combining detector technology pioneered by our colleagues with deep scientific expertise across Caltech, JPL, and IPAC, PRIMA will help reveal fundamental cosmic processes that have long been hidden from view.”

PRIMA is scheduled to launch in 2033. NASA will select a launch provider at a later time.

NASA chief concerned China may deny access to parts of Moon's south pole

Last month, China delayed the launch of an ambitious robotic mission to the south pole of the Moon, Chang’e 7, until early next year. The country did not provide a detailed explanation for the schedule slip, but it was welcomed by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman.

"They are targeting the exact same location on lunar south pole," Isaacman said Wednesday evening at the Off World conference in Houston. "We may have dodged a bullet with the Chang'e 7 mission a couple of weeks ago because that would have gone to the Shackleton crater."

Much of the lunar surface is pretty barren, but the south pole, and the Shackleton Crater in particular, offers some of the most coveted real estate there. That's because the high rims of the crater create permanently shadowed regions known as “cold traps,” where it’s thought that water (in the form of ice, of course) and other useful materials may have accumulated over billions of years.

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Red Sox & Yankees Will Meet In ALWC On Tuesday

The Red Sox and Yankees are expected to meet in one of the two American League Wild Card series next Tuesday. Boston can grab the AL's #5 seed with a win tonight. The series will be a best-of-3, with all of the games in the Bronx. . . . Will the Red Sox ring in YED 2026 on September 30 or October 1?

The Red Sox are in the postseason thanks to a historic 30-game stretch in which they went 27-3 (.900), a stretch that stands in stark contrast to the 58-70 record (.453) in games before and after that period.

0326-0701:  37-48 .435
0702-0807:  27- 3 .900
0808-0923:  21-22 .488
            85-73 .538 (4 games remaining)

Lefty Garrett Crochet (2025 AL Cy Young runner-up) hasn't pitched in a game since April 25, because of left shoulder inflammation. On Tuesday, he threw 16 pitches of batting practice, hitting 96 mph.

I would say the way that live just went, that I could go get outs. It depends obviously what role they want me in. . . . I know myself, and I know my body, and the biggest thing was that I felt good out there. Felt like I was able to ramp up intensity to a place that I haven't gone yet.

Ian Browne reports that Aroldis Chapman is back after missing about two weeks with a lat issue. "I'm happy to be back. . . . I feel like I'm at 100 percent right now." Manager Chad Tracy expects to have his set-up-closing trio of Tyron Guerrero, Garrett Whitlock and Chapman for the ALWC.

Tracy's starters for this week's series against Cleveland were Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez, but he has not yet confirmed that would be the order against the Yankees. . . . Gray's 2.72 ERA is 8th in MLB, 5th in the AL. Tolle (3.03) and Suarez (3.23) are not too far behind in ERA.

The Red Sox went 6-7 against the Yankees this season. Boston's four-game sweep at Fenway (June 25-28) was a bit of a prelude to their 27-3 run.

In 2021, the Red Sox beat the Yankees 6-2 in the Wild Card Game. In the 2025 ALWC, the Yankees defeated the Red Sox 4-3 and 4-0 after Boston won the first game 3-1.

Will perennial IL-lodger and postseason whiff-machine* A-A-Ron Judge play in the series? Judge (right calf strain) said he'll be ready to play ("that's what the plan is"), but his manager said the exact opposite. "We're planning on him not being a part of [the ALWC]." . . . Craig Calcaterra reports that this is "the third or fourth time since Judge came off of his long IL stint this season that he's either contradicted what someone on his team said or otherwise did not go along with the expected flow of ballplayer communications".

*: If strikeouts were hits, Judge would have a .370 postseason batting average (91-for-246). . . . His actual average, in 65 career post-season games, is an unimpressive .236 (58-for-246).

Oregon DOT: First, third, and nearly worst

Here are two facts that the members of the Governor’s Transportation Vision Task Force ought to have top of mind as they contemplate recommendations for addressing the state’s transportation future.

National data show that Oregon is at the top and bottom of two lists that basically tell them everything they need to know about how badly the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) is performing.

ODOT has the second worst  preservation and maintenance funding gap of any state

ODOT has the first and third most expensive per mile highway projects in the nation

Oregon’s transportation finance problems stem from spending way too much on expensive megaprojects, and completing neglecting basic maintenance and preservation of roads and bridges.  The only solution is for priorities to change.

Second to Last in Preservation and Maintenance

First, when it comes to spending to preserve and maintain state roads and highways, ODOT ranks second to last among all states.  As reported by the Capital Chronicle, according to the independent Pew Center, and based on Federal Highway Administration data, Oregon has the second largest gap between preservation and maintenance needs and the amount it actually spends.

Pew’s “Gap to Expenditure” (GTE) ratio measures how much the state needs to spend to preserve and maintain its roads and bridges, compared to its calculated expenditures, both over a ten-year forward-looking period.  Oregon’s 161% gap means that it needs to spend about 161 percent more than it is currently spending on preservation and maintenance to meet its identified needs.  And the gap is enormous:  According to Pew’s analysis  Oregon needs an additional $4.8 billion over ten years just to bring maintenance and preservation in line with identified need.

First and Third in Most Expensive Highway Projects

While Oregon is at the bottom of the preservation and maintenance list, its another list that shows ODOT’s true priorities:  According to our tabulation of the most expensive (per mile) highway projects currently moving forward in the United States, two ODOT projects rank first and third nationally as being the most expensive.

The two Portland area projects are the #1 and #3 most expensive highway projects (per mile) in the nation. The 5-mile  long Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) clocks in  at about $3 billion/mile and the 1.5 mile Rose Quarter at about $2.3 billion/mile.   Portland ara projects highlighted in red.

 

Top 10 Most Expensive U.S. Highway Projects by Cost per Mile

Centerline cost per mile ($ Millions).

Interstate Bridge Replacement (OR/WA)
$3,000M / mi

Brooklyn-Queens Expressway Central (NY)
$2,667M / mi

I-5 Rose Quarter Improvement Project (OR)
$2,333M / mi

Allston I-90 Multimodal Project (MA)
$1,333M / mi

NJ Turnpike Hudson County Extension (NJ)
$1,321M / mi

I-84 Hartford Mobility / Replacement Plan (CT)
$1,250M / mi

I-10 Calcasieu River Bridge Replacement (LA)
$564M / mi

Highway 37 Reconstruction (CA)
$523M / mi

Washington Bridge I-195 Replacement (RI)
$500M / mi

I-94 East-West Corridor (WI)
$486M / mi

 

 

These data suggest that Oregon is not simply a representative victim of highway cost inflation, but is actively the worst DOT in the nation in managing highway project costs.  That conclusion is  also consistent with data on construction costs compiled by Yale University’s Zachary Liscow, who found that Oregon’s costs for routine road repairs were about double the national average.

Oregon’s Misplaced Priorities

The fact that Oregon ranks at the bottom for preservation and maintenance and at the top for most expensive highway projects is no coincidence.  Rather, its indicative of seriously skewed priorities.  For years, ODOT has short-changed maintaining the state’s roads, and instead devoted more and more revenue to giant construction projects, which are consistently blowing through their budgets with billions of dollars in cost-overruns.  And just to be clear, ODOT’s current biggest projects aren’t preservation and maintenance.  The I-5 Rose Quarter project doubles the width of the I-5 freeway.  The bulk of the cost of the so-called “Interstate Bridge Replacement” isn’t actually “replacing” the bridge:  it is rebuilding seven freeway interchanges and widening five miles of freeway.  And ODOT has mightily resisted any efforts to “right-size” these projects (as other states have done, in the face of rising costs and diminished revenues).

If the Governor’s “Vision” task force has any vision, it has to be correcting this fundamental imbalance between taking care of the assets we have, rather than squandering a fortune on a handful of projects of questionable benefit.

Appendix:  Most expensive highway projects in the US, by state

 

Rank State Project Estimated Cost Length Cost per Mile (Centerline)
1 Oregon/Washington Interstate Bridge Replacement (WA/OR I-5) $15.0 Billion ~5.0 mi $3,000.0M / mi
2 New York Brooklyn Queens Expressway Central Project (Brooklyn) $4.0 Billion ~1.5 mi $2,667 M / mi
3 Oregon I-5 Rose Quarter Improvement Project $3.5 Billion ~1.5 mi $2,333 M / mi
4 Massachusetts Allston I-90 Multimodal Project (Boston) $2.0 Billion ~1.5 mi $1,333.3M / mi
5 New Jersey New Jersey Turnpike Hudson County Extension $10.7 Billion ~8.1 mi $1,321.0M / mi
6 Connecticut I-84 Hartford Mobility / Replacement Plan $5.0 Billion ~4.0 mi $1,250.0M / mi
7 Louisiana I-10 Calcasieu River Bridge Replacement (Lake Charles) $3.1 Billion ~5.5 mi $563.6M / mi
8 Texas North Houston Highway Improvement Project (I-45) $13.0 Billion ~24.0 mi $542.0M / mi
9 California Highway 37 (Santa Rosa/Vallejo) $11.0 Billion ~21.0 mi $523.0M / mi
10 Rhode Island Washington Bridge I-195 Emergency Replacement $400 Million ~0.8 mi $500.0M / mi
11 Wisconsin I-94 East-West Corridor (Milwaukee) $1.7 Billion ~3.5 mi $485.7M / mi
12 Ohio/Kentucky Brent Spence Bridge Corridor (OH/KY Shared) $3.6 Billion ~8.0 mi $450.0M / mi
13 Virginia Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel (HRBT) Expansion $3.9 Billion ~9.9 mi $393.9M / mi
14 Maryland I-495 & I-270 Capital Beltway Managed Lanes $1.5 Billion ~4.0 mi $375.0M / mi
15 Alabama I-10 Mobile River Bridge & Bayway $3.5 Billion ~10.0 mi $350.0M / mi
16 Georgia I-285 / GA-400 Interchange & Top End Express Lanes $4.6 Billion ~16.0 mi $287.5M / mi
17 South Carolina I-526 Lowcountry Corridor (Charleston) $4.0 Billion ~14.0 mi $285.7M / mi
18 Nevada Project Neon / I-15 Trop-LVC Improvement (Las Vegas) $1.0 Billion ~3.7 mi $270.3M / mi
19 Utah I-15 Expansion & Bottleneck Fix (Salt Lake County) $3.7 Billion ~17.0 mi $217.6M / mi
20 Illinois Tri-State Tollway (I-294) Expansion $4.0 Billion ~22.0 mi $181.8M / mi
21 Oklahoma I-44 / I-235 Interchange Expansion (Oklahoma City) $680 Million ~4.5 mi $151.1M / mi
22 Pennsylvania Mon-Fayette Expressway (PA Route 43 Extension) $2.1 Billion ~14.0 mi $150.0M / mi
23 Arkansas I-30 Crossing Project (Little Rock) $1.00 Billion ~7.3 mi $137.0M / mi
24 Hawaii Honolulu Rail/H-1 Corridor Integration $650 Million ~5.0 mi $130.0M / mi
25 Colorado Central 70 Project (Denver) $1.2 Billion ~10.0 mi $120.0M / mi
26 Tennessee Choice Lanes Program (I-24 / I-65 Nashville Corridor) $3.0 Billion ~26.0 mi $115.4M / mi
27 Florida I-4 Ultimate / Beyond the Ultimate Corridor $2.3 Billion ~21.0 mi $109.5M / mi
28 Iowa I-80 / I-380 System Interchange (Iowa City) $387 Million ~4.0 mi $96.8M / mi
29 North Carolina Complete 540 / NC 540 Triangle Expressway $2.2 Billion ~28.0 mi $78.6M / mi
30 Michigan I-75 Modernization (Oakland County) $1.0 Billion ~18.0 mi $55.6M / mi
31 Delaware U.S. 301 Toll Road Extension $636 Million ~12.5 mi $50.9M / mi
32 New Mexico I-25 / I-40 “Big I” & South Corridor Upgrades $250 Million ~5.0 mi $50.0M / mi
33 North Dakota I-94 / I-29 Tri-Level Interchange Rebuild (Fargo) $95 Million ~2.0 mi $47.5M / mi
34 Idaho I-86 / I-15 System Interchange Rebuild (Pocatello) $112 Million ~2.5 mi $44.8M / mi
35 Maine I-95 / Hampden Bridge & Corridor Rebuild $85 Million ~2.0 mi $42.5M / mi
36 Minnesota I-494 Airport to Hwy 169 Corridor $377 Million ~9.0 mi $41.9M / mi
37 New Hampshire I-93 Widening (Salem to Manchester) $800 Million ~19.8 mi $40.4M / mi
38 Mississippi I-20 / I-55 West Jackson Corridor Improvements $180 Million ~4.5 mi $40.0M / mi
39 West Virginia Corridor H (Elkins to West Virginia/Virginia State Line) $1.20 Billion ~30.0 mi $40.0M / mi
40 Arizona I-10 Wild Horse Pass Corridor Expansion $1.0 Billion ~26.0 mi $38.5M / mi
41 South Dakota I-29 / 85th Street Interchange (Sioux Falls) $65 Million ~2.0 mi $32.5M / mi
42 Nebraska US-77 South Lincoln Beltway $352 Million ~11.0 mi $32.0M / mi
43 Kansas U.S. 69 Express Lanes (Overland Park Expansion) $570 Million ~18.0 mi $31.7M / mi
44 Vermont U.S. Route 2 / I-89 Reconfiguration (Chittenden) $45 Million ~1.5 mi $30.0M / mi
45 Alaska Seward Highway Upgrades (MP 75–90 / MP 100–105) $380 Million ~20.0 mi $19.0M / mi
46 Montana I-90 Missoula Corridor Reconstruction $140 Million ~8.0 mi $17.5M / mi
47 Indiana I-69 Finish Line (Evansville to Indianapolis) $2.0 Billion ~142.0 mi $14.1M / mi
48 Missouri Improve I-70 Statewide Program (3-Lane Expansion) $2.8 Billion ~200.0 mi $14.0M / mi
49 Wyoming I-80 Elk Mountain / Winter Safety Corridor Upgrades $85 Million ~15.0 mi $5.7M / mi

Methodology

There’s no single, authoritative list of current and planned highway projects, so as a first step, we enlisted the assistance of Google’s Gemini AI to compile a list of what it found to be the most expensive current highway project in each of the 50 states, ranked by millions of dollars per centerline mile of project length (a rough yardstick of project scale).  The usual caveats apply about AI-generated content, but at first glance, the list reflects most of the well-known projects underway around the country.

We’ve also surveyed colleagues from around the nation, and invited anyone to submit information about ongoing or planned projects that belong on this list.  (As promised, we’re periodically updating the list as we acquire more accurate information, and we invite readers to offer corrections and amplifications).

 

 

Links 9/24/26

Links for you. Science:

Russell Vought Doesn’t Care Who Dies, Including You
Russel Vought will reportedly be given veto power over all NIH grants
Scientists Make Jaw-Dropping Realization After Uncovering Perfectly Preserved T. Rex on Wyoming Ranch
Members of Congress push back on plan to create a commission of political appointees to review NIH grants
How Saudi oil scientists ended up working on the world’s most important climate reports
CDC reports a significant increase in rabies activity
Claude discovers a novel enzyme system with CRISPR-like repeats (manuscript here)

Other:

We Didn’t Know Until This Day … Twitter Was the Echo Chamber All Along
New Matrix, Meet the Old Matrix
Centrists Won’t Tell You Where “Moderating” on Trans Rights Ends Up
The A.I. Party House Where Networking Has a Dark Side
Treasury Secretary Bessent Blames OpenAI Management for Hugging Face Breach, Opposes AI Liability Shield
The Other Hormuz: Black Sea Blockade Threatens a Food Supply Shock
Plan for editorial oversight board at CNN and CBS News draws skepticism: ‘Utter garbage’
Queen Elizabeth I Owned Two Thousand Dresses. Only a Scrap of One Remains.
Where’re All The AI Chips?
Welcome to the Wile E. Coyote Moment
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on 2028: ‘Life Doesn’t Wait for You to Be Ready’
Trump administration tells Congress it will admit 17,500 white South African refugees
Meta Tests Muse AI Agent Calls That Are Actually Made By Humans in a Call Center
Big Balls Now Exposed to Serious Criminal Charges in at Least Six States
Stocks had a great day on the surface. But something alarming occurred not seen since 1999
Private Schools Are Bad for Society
People Training OpenAI’s AI Fired for Using AI to Train the AI
The Professor Watchlist is Dead
Extreme overcrowding and abuse plague Florida ICE facilities, whistleblowers say
Trump Grip on GOP Slips as Midterm Election Anxiety Sets In
Effective Altruism’s Bait-and-Switch: From Global Poverty To AI Doomerism
A Bad Tuesday in Maine if Your Name is Susan Collins
DoorDash Agrees To $131 Million Settlement With New York City Over Wage Theft Claims
GOP Candidates Find Creative New Ways to Distance Themselves From Trump
“Bike lane saga”
Shakespeare: Original pronunciation
‘I am the code’: Trump clashed with ballroom architect over safety issues
‘We Screwed Up’: DoorDash to Pay $131.5 Million to Stiffed NYC Delivery Workers
Waymo’s latest expansion strategy: teenagers
Democrats have stumbled onto a new impeachment strategy

How the Fed should measure inflation

Pinning down the underlying rate may be harder than Kevin Warsh thinks

Israel’s war economy is thriving

But conflict is worsening its industrial divide

The battle between India’s stock exchanges is heating up again

Number two is trying harder

Turkey’s investment-fund fiasco

The country could lose its status as an emerging market

Spammers Teach Me Six Ugly Truths About AI Writing

Back in February, I shared this warning from a Silicon Valley insider.

In response, I was accused of “doom-mongering” and various other transgressions against our new overlords. But a few months later, it all started happening. I was now experiencing a spam bombardment of Dresden-ish proportions—precisely the doom I had mongered.


Please support my work—by taking out a premium subscription for just $6 per month.

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In May, spam calls on my phone ranked among my ninety-nine problems. In June, they got worse, much worse. Spam had now graduated to my top ten pet peeves.

A visual depiction of my email box (Source)

By July, I was receiving junk calls every fifteen minutes, more or less. After a few days of that, I decided to take extreme measures.

Read more

Earth fact of the day

An average of 72 percent of respondents said they felt curious, happy or excited about A.I., compared with 41 percent who felt worried, sad or angry.’@nytimes‘s Damien Cave uses @Gallup data to remind us the rest of the world digs AI.

It is 93 percent positive from China.  That is from Nick Gillespie.  Snap out of it you sad sacks, hope you can recognize negative emotional contagion when you see it!  You do not all need to be regional thinkers.  Here are the full rankings.  Here is another visualization of the numbers:

Image

Strange bedfellows, you might say…

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Sakurai’s Object: A Stellar Rebirth

Given how long stars live in comparison to human lifetimes, I always do a double-take at science fiction tales of starships dropping in to study a nova just as it’s about to go off. I suppose we have to assume the starship civilization has found a way to time such matters. There’s a Star Trek: The Next Generation episode that involves rescuing a planetary population from a star that’s about to explode (“A Fury Scorned”), but of all the nova arrivals, I like Samuel Delany’s 1968 novel Nova the best. Here, in order to harvest a rare element dubbed ‘Illyrion,’ the exact moment of the explosion has to be known and exploited through a mind-bending run through the debris.

Today’s paper doesn’t involve a nova, but it does involve a star that is doing things on a very short timeframe indeed. The star is known as Sakurai’s Object (V4334 Sagittarii). Japanese amateur Yukio Sakurai observed the object in 1996, noting how it appeared to be brightening. A 1976 detection of the progenitor star had recorded a magnitude of 21, whereas when Sakurai tagged it, it had reached magnitude 11. The apparent eruption here was first thought to be the result of a nova, but that was discounted for spectral reasons.

Several years later the unusual brightening began to decline. That was evidently the result of loss of mass and subsequent condensation of stellar material, which wound up hiding the star behind a dusty screen. It now shows a spectrum similar to what is known as a Wolf-Rayet star. Sakurai’s Object appears, however, to be in the much less massive Wolf-Rayet class known as a [WR] star. A conventional Wolf-Rayet star is massive, stripped of its hydrogen by huge stellar winds that leave the underlying helium-burning layers exposed. The odd [WR] notation turns out to be needed because low-mass objects like these can mimic a Wolf-Rayet star, so it was necessary to show that this is a different kind of object and a much smaller kind at that, though with Wolf-Rayet features.

There are also sub-categories of [WR] including [WC] that don’t need to occupy us now, although the paper explains what they mean. What’s intriguing about Sakurai’s object is its pace. According to current calculations it’s now roughly 6 times hotter than it was 30 years ago, and is climbing back toward the white dwarf temperatures it had before the eruption that made it observable by Sakurai. Albert Zijlstra (Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, University of Manchester), describes its significance:

“Most stars evolve so slowly that major changes take place over timescales far longer than a human lifetime. As a result, we usually have to piece together snapshots of stellar evolution by comparing different stars at different stages of their lives. Sakurai’s Object offers something far rarer. It is one of the very few stars known to have changed dramatically within just a few decades, giving us the opportunity to watch stellar evolution unfold in real time. With our observations, we can test theories of how stars evolve and gain new insights into one of the shortest and least understood phases in the life of a dying star.”

Image: The rapid brightening of Sakurai’s object allows astronomers to study the final phases of the stellar evolution in only a few decades. The left and right panels show the brightening. The middle panel is an image obtained with the radio telescope ALMA, showing the material ejected after the star re-ignited. The material currently extends over a size similar to our entire solar system. Credit: Stefan Kimeswenger, University of Innsbruck; Peter van Hoof, Royal Observatory Belgium. The observatory also has a short video showing the brightening.

What we apparently have here is a star once similar to the Sun that had finished its nuclear burning and was in the process of turning into a dense white dwarf star about the size of the Earth. But an event known as a ‘very late thermal pulse’ seems to have occurred. This happens when helium deep inside the star reignites, forcing a rapid expansion along with the ejection of stellar materials, so that the star has, at least for the time being, been reinvigorated. Along with another star called V605 Aquilae, Sakurai’s Object is one of only two stars that have been directly observed going through this process.

Let me turn to the paper to home in on the matter of thermal pulses:

Depending on when the pulse occurs, it is classified as an AGB final thermal pulse (AFTP), a late thermal pulse (LTP; post-AGB), or a very late thermal pulse (VLTP; see M. M. Miller Bertolami 2024). In the most extreme case (VLTP), the star is already on the white-dwarf cooling track when the flash causes rapid expansion and cooling, accompanied by substantial mass ejection into the circumstellar environment. The star is thus “born again” and returns close to its former AGB position in the HR diagram. Subsequent evolution involves reheating, and possibly an additional cooling excursion, as the star evolves back towards the white-dwarf domain with a markedly altered surface composition (T. M. Lawlor & J. MacDonald 2003).

No wonder this was a hard object to observe. The ejected gas and dust following the 1996 outburst caused the star to became hidden to direct imaging. Low density gases are coming off the star even as the outflowing atmosphere, moving at e 500 kilometers per second, is optically thick. Much of the spectrum produced is nebular. The team compared data from the VLT with computer models originally developed to study the processes that power the atmospheres and winds of Wolf-Rayet stars. The emission lines studied in this paper are embedded in the stellar wind, as opposed to the ejecta and dust. Much of the credibility of the analysis depends upon separating these factors.

The analysis reveals a stellar temperature at the surface pegged at between 27,000 and 36,000 degrees Kelvin. Scientists will now be able to study the process of the reheating following the eruption that occurred thirty years ago. Early indications are that the process is occurring more slowly than some models had predicted, so that Sakurai’s Object becomes a useful laboratory, like V605 Aquilae, into stellar behavior in this extremely rare class of stars. At some point, Sakurai’s Object will return to its fate as a white dwarf, only now under close observation as we ponder massive changes in a very short order.

Griet Van de Steene (Royal Observatory of Belgium), a co-author of the paper adds:

“Sakurai’s Object evolved much more quickly than pre-existing models for stellar evolution predicted. This led to a new generation of models that we now need to test. Our measurements show that the star is reheating more gradually than some of these new models predicted. That gives us an important way of testing which theories best describe what happens when a dying star briefly springs back to life. As we continue to monitor the star over the coming years, we expect to learn much more about this remarkable phase of stellar evolution.”

The paper is Marcolino et al (2026). The emergence of a [WC] star in Sakurai’s object. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 552(1), Article stag1533. Full text.

Thursday assorted links

1. Shruti on Coltrane.

2. On the drop in Pisa scores.  Quite exaggerated, it turns out.

3. Hope you all reoptimize your views accordingly, on AI agreements with China.

4. Dutch economy is picking up.

5. One professor’s AI-assisted output.  Hey people, solve for the equilibrium…

6. Brisket is now too expensive for this Texas smokehouse.

7. I asked the new Claude to write a 900-word column on refineries, supply, and how to improve the problem.

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Today’s the Day!

Ten years ago, I started asking questions about the census. Little did I know that I entered a Hotel California-esque vortex. Each question led to another question as I started to discover just how infrastructural the census is. Want to understand American democracy? The census is the key. Curious how to ensure data quality? The census has insights. Invested in responsible AI? The census has lessons. And on and on it went.

Well, today is the official publication day of Data Are Made, Not Found: A Story of Politics, Power, and the Civil Servants Who Saved the US Census, which is my attempt to use storytelling to explain the power and beauty of the census. The book is an account of the 2020 census, a love letter to civil servants, and a how-the-sausage-is-made story. Three arguments are woven through the book like red threads:

  • Data are made (not found). How they are made really matters. And making data is more than meets the eye.
  • “Jenga politics” is configuring our government and world, creating precarities that we must learn to see before it’s too late. Everyone loses when the tower falls, even if only one player gets blamed.
  • The key to data’s legitimacy rests in the social fabric that surrounds the data, moreso even than the quality of the data itself. We must invest in social fabrics to ensure that data is robust, trusted, and able to anchor high-stakes decisions.

While census nerds are bound to smile at some parts of the book (and get mad at me for others), this book isn’t just meant for census nerds. It’s meant for anyone who cares about democracy, American politics, and government. And it’s meant for anyone passionate about data, AI, and our sociotechnical world. All too often, we take the systems that undergird our society for granted. We must learn to see the infrastructures of our society to protect them. And democracy’s data is precisely that: data infrastructure.

In the US, we might speak of the importance of the Constitution. The census is at the top: in Article 1, Section 2. Yet many who care about the Constitution or politics know little about how the census works. Our data infrastructure is being politicized and our Census Bureau is being battered. Despite being ordered to oversee a census, Congress has absconded with its responsibilities.

Civil servants work on behalf of the American people. And yet, Democrats have long pushed to outsource government to the private sector, arguing that bureaucrats are too incompetent to do the work. Meanwhile, Republicans have worked to obliterate the administrative state, blaming the so-called “deep state” for spiting them. The public has heard politicians’ messages and often believes that civil servants are malfeasant or stupid, incompetent or useless. Meanwhile, Iceland has a Monument to the Unknown Bureaucrat. (Why don’t we?)

I want the American people to understand and appreciate the hard work that civil servants do on our behalf to uphold American democracy. If you’re reading this, please take a moment to reach out to any civil servant you know and thank them for their service. And if you don’t yet know a civil servant, it’s time to adopt one. They need our collective support so that they can work on our collective behalf, regardless of who is in power.

But brace yourself. The battles around the census are about to get much more intense. After all, the key decisions connected to the 2030 census are going to unfold over the next two years. The Congress that is elected this November will make all of the critical decisions. They might choose to abscond with their responsibility and simply not act, but that too is a choice. Even right now, there’s a Federal Register Notice out there that will radically upend how the 2030 census will operate. Learn more at Hands Off Our Census.

Anyhow, I have a lot more to say. Heck, I edited 350K words down to a reasonable sized book in the hopes that you’d come along for the ride. The book is now here. And it’s in English and French, audiobook and ebook. I want it to be easy for anyone to read it. And if purchasing the book isn’t viable for you, ask your library for a copy. Libraries are awesome!

I’m also going to run around the US this fall (and France in January!) talking about this work. So come talk with me. Ask questions. Help me celebrate the important work of civil servants. And help us all work to ensure that the census is able to continue serving as democracy’s data. Details of the book tour will be kept up-to-date on my website.

Finally… If you’ve gotten this far, thank you. Getting a book into people’s hands isn’t easy, especially now. I could use your help. If you can, help spread the word. Let other people who care about democracy and data know about this project. If you read the book, write a review or tell a friend. Word-of-mouth really matters. Thank you.

Defiance

September 23, 2026

Yesterday, William Turton, Avi Asher-Schapiro, Molly Redden, and Kirsten Berg of ProPublica published a blockbuster story reporting that the anti-corruption group of the Federal Bureau of Investigation was investigating Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) for engaging in a pay-to-play scheme in which defense contractor Navatek made illegal donations to her 2020 campaign and later got multimillion-dollar contracts from the government. Collins is the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

And yet, the story continues, when he returned to the White House in 2025, Trump fired the investigators building the case and largely stopped investigating public corruption.

While the primary witness in the case was Martin Kao, the man who allegedly engaged in the bribery, the ProPublica journalists corroborated much of Kao’s account through legal records, FBI evidence, and interviews with people who worked with Navatek and the FBI.

Collins’s deputy chief of staff Annie Clark said Collins’s office “vigorously” denies allegations of bribery and pay-to-play, but she did admit that “the Collins campaign disgorged the illegal contributions that Martin Kao had made without our knowledge.” Emails suggest that, in fact, her office did know about the deal. After a $150,000 donation, a staff member from her office emailed a lobbyist for Navatek to ask for Kao’s phone number, writing: “Senator Collins would like to call Martin to thank him.”

Although the story’s authors report that Navatek never produced a product the military needed, it did, in fact, receive millions in defense contracts.

The bribery angle of this story is huge. So, too, is that the story suggests that Trump, at least, might perceive that he has something to hold over Collins’s head to keep her behind his actions, even when they have dramatically weakened her power at the head of Appropriations.

The 1873 novel The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today by Charles Dudley Warner and Mark Twain that gave the late nineteenth century its nickname was not about the riches of the industrialists who came to be known as robber barons. It was about the political corruption of the era. In the book, unscrupulous speculators bribed congressmen. “A Congressional appropriation costs money,” a railroad man tells a naive youth who wonders where a $200,000 appropriation has gone. He listed the bribes his project required and noted that the “high moral” lawmakers cost more than the usual ones.

It was an era in which lawmakers lived by the “spoils system,” as in “to the victor go the spoils.” Lawmakers at the time rewarded their business followers with government contracts and put supporters into political office. The businessmen and officials, in turn, would hire workers on the condition they voted for the party the boss supported. “Every good man looks after his friends,” as one politician put it.

The U.S. outlawed the spoils system in 1883 after a disappointed office seeker assassinated President James Garfield, replacing it with the merit-based Civil Service Reform Act, or Pendleton Act. Trump has ripped up those civil service protections, making much of the government staff again political appointees. Curiously, at the United Nations yesterday, Trump used the phrase “to the victor belong the spoils.”

The relationship between the MAGA Republican agenda and the misuse of tax dollars is becoming more and more obvious since ProPublica ran the story last November of how contracts from the Department of Homeland Security appeared to be going to those personally tied to then–Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem and her ally Corey Lewandowski.

In July 2026, Tarini Parti, Josh Dawsey, Michelle Hackman, and Summer Said of the Wall Street Journal confirmed that Lewandowski “effectively controlled billions in spending at Homeland Security.” Lewandowski responded, somewhat halfheartedly, that the story was “just another example of the kind of anonymous-source, politically driven reporting that Americans have seen time and again,” and emphasized that he was “a volunteer in advancing this administration’s agenda.”

Stories of the Trump administration’s misuse of taxpayer money are starting to drop fast and furious.

Yesterday, Liz Essley Whyte of the Wall Street Journal reported that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. funded enhanced security for himself by taking funds from the department’s Office of Minority Health. Whyte notes that the Reagan administration created the Office of Minority Health after a landmark report showed that Black life expectancy in the U.S. was shorter than white Americans’ and that Black babies were more likely than white babies to die.

Christina Jewett and Sheryl Gay Stolberg of the New York Times reported today that, over the past year, Kennedy has also accepted $4 million in book advances and more than $270,000 in gifts from allies connected to the “Make American Healthy Again,” or MAHA, movement interested in changes to government policies. Kennedy’s wife, Cheryl Hines, accepted $210,000 in consulting fees from a MAHA advocacy group.

On a far larger scale is the use of tax dollars to pay authoritarian governments to imprison immigrants from the United States who are not their own citizens.

On Monday, David Nakamura and Adam Taylor of the Washington Post reported that the State Department’s “Office of Remigration” has pledged at least $410 million to facilitate third-country renditions to expel migrants that U.S. courts say cannot be returned to their home countries for fear they will be harmed or killed. So the U.S. has sent more than 25,000 people to at least 28 third countries, including Eswatini, Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, and Sierra Leone, for a fee. That money includes $81 million in direct payments to 13 foreign governments, as well as funding for agencies that will then contribute to those countries.

Those countries either imprison the migrants or send them back to their home countries, a loophole that enables the administration to get around the prohibition on the U.S. sending them there. Last Friday, a federal appeals court found that this policy is unlawful. The administration will appeal to the Supreme Court.

White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller has ordered the deals, and Christian Ehrhardt, a State Department official, has secured them.

Nakamura and Taylor explain that the Office of Remigration—the word “remigration” is popular with white nationalists who seek to expel racial minorities and immigrants through ethnic cleansing—reverses the previous U.S. emphasis on resettling refugees and instead focuses on expelling them, including into places where there is strong evidence they will be tortured. The administration is locking in these deals as quickly as possible, the journalists report, exercising “minimal oversight over how the money is spent and how the migrants are treated, even though some of the third countries are ruled by authoritarian regimes.”

A former State Department official who left the department over the policy told Nakamura and Taylor that the administration wanted “fast money, with no strings attached. The whole point was to circumvent [congressional] notification that money was being sent to a government known to be corrupt.” The plan appears to be to create such terror in migrant communities that people here self-deport, and others are afraid to come.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council notes that “Congress should demand answers from those responsible for diverting taxpayer funding intended to protect people from persecution to some of the world’s worst authoritarians, for purposes which clearly violate human rights.”

On Sunday an agent from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) shot Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez, a Venezuelan food delivery driver, in the back in Austin, Texas. With a bullet still lodged in his body, he was discharged from a hospital to ICE custody, where he spent the night in pain on a cold floor. Nick Miroff of The Atlantic reported yesterday that the officer was a recent hire who was not wearing a body camera, despite the promise of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin that all ICE agents would wear cameras. News outlets reported that the officer had been issued one.

The Department of Homeland Security set out to add 10,000 new agents last year after Congress provided billions of dollars to double the ICE workforce. ICE ramped up its hiring by offering $50,000 signing bonuses and cutting normal vetting procedures, sometimes not even checking fingerprints or identities or conducting a job interview. David Brouillette, the ICE officer with a volatile history who killed Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Biddeford, Maine, in July, was also a recent hire. On September 15, Alex Horton, Joyce Sohyun Lee, Maria Sacchetti, and Ted Hesson of the Washington Post reported that ICE has been quietly firing some of those hastily hired.

ICE told the Washington Post reporters: “ICE is hiring the best of the best to go after the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens including drug traffickers, murderers, and pedophiles. When individuals fall short of that standard—personnel decisions are made. This is standard practice in almost every American workplace.”

Officials told Miroff that the agents who stopped Garcés Pérez used a commercial database and federal immigration file that identified the man’s plates as belonging to someone with an outstanding deportation order; his lawyer said he had a valid work permit and is an asylum seeker, and that the deportation order came because notice of his immigration court hearing was sent to the wrong address. After a public outcry, officials took Garcés Pérez back to the hospital on Monday.

Ryan Quinn of Inside Higher Ed reported Monday that the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality are running far behind where they should be in terms of funding for the fiscal year, which ends on September 30.

Trump fired the board of the National Science Foundation (NSF) in April, and the foundation is now effectively being run by the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), a former NSF board member told Quinn. The director of OMB is Russell Vought, a key author of Project 2025. “And OMB is directing the agency to direct its grant-making dollars in ways that are very different from federal law as passed by Congress in its budget,” the former board member said.

Quinn noted that Nature attributed the funding shortfall mainly “to the agency keeping more than $1 billion in an account, much of which is for the White House’s Grand Research Challenges project, which is meant to support specific fields, including artificial intelligence.” The Trump family and the president’s allies are heavily invested in the AI sector.

And then there are Trump’s vanity projects. Even before Trump announced that the American taxpayer wouldn’t pay a dime for the White House ballroom project, the administration had already signed contracts that put the American taxpayer on the hook for more than $300 million for it.

Today Sarah Blaskey and Jonathan O’Connell of the Washington Post reported that James McCrery II, the first architect on Trump’s ballroom, resigned when Trump insisted on a design that did not meet fire codes. Normally, White House construction would be managed by federal agencies required by law to comply with building safety codes, but White House officials have routed the ballroom through the tiny Executive Residence office that is exempt from rules because it is not a federal agency.

McCrery warned that Trump’s design did not have enough emergency exits or measures to contain a fire, which could spread quickly from the kitchen below the ballroom to the event space above it, and pointed out that the design was not up to code.

Trump waved off his concerns. “I am the code,” he said.

Notes:

https://www.propublica.org/article/fbi-susan-collins-navatek-campaign-donations-investigation

https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-09-22/propublica-reporter-shares-key-takeaways-from-investigative-story-involving-susan-collins

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/21/ice-shooting-austin-texas-venezuelan-man

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/corey-lewandowski-influence-dhs-43d3fe03

https://www.propublica.org/article/kristi-noem-dhs-ad-campaign-strategy-group

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/rfk-jr-hhs-security-cost-minority-health-office-f1c7b62a

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2026/09/18/appeals-court-says-trump-administrations-third-country-deportation-policy-is-unlawful/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2026/09/21/how-trump-turned-refugee-bureau-into-410-million-deportation-operation/

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/09/austin-ice-shooting-body-camera/688738/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2026/09/15/ice-is-quietly-firing-new-hires-one-recruit-it-was-devastating/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2026/07/18/ice-officers-troubled-past-renews-vetting-questions-after-maine-shooting/

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/government/science-research-policy/2026/09/21/nsf-over-billion-behind-grants-ies-says-will

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/06/16/records-reveal-600m-estimate-trumps-ballroom-project-with-half-taxpayers/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/09/23/i-am-code-trump-clashed-with-ballroom-architect-over-safety-issues/

https://apnews.com/article/austin-texas-ice-shooting-driver-wilber-perez-ebdb9d481d28e322f62c15f1076f3c18

https://history.hanover.edu/courses/excerpts/336plunkitt.html

https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2026/06/trump-federal-employees-schedule-f/413945/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/us/politics/rfk-jr-book-advances-maha.html?smid=bs-share

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/23/texas-austin-shooting-ice-officer-no-body-cam-reports/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/22/us/politics/un-trump-speech-iran-venezuela-greenland.html

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Moral Economics in Korean

Here's the first commercial translation I've seen of my book Moral Economics, which appeared in English in May 2026.

 I suspect that, now that A.I. can offer substantial assistance, some translations will appear more rapidly than in the past. 

The title in Korean is 금지된 거래의 경제학도덕과 시장은 공존할 수 있는가, The Economics of Forbidden Transactions: Can Morality and Markets Coexist? (You can buy it here.)

 

New release

Here's a book review in the Seoul Economic Daily.

Here's another. Both are in English.

CA 91326: A Public Choice Mystery Investigation

Carl Danner writes to me with a political economy mystery. On Sept 9, 2026, The California Public Utilities Commission announced a set of clean energy grants but only “for eligible organizations headquartered in ZIP Code 91326.”

I decided to investigate with ChatGPT. The first thing we discovered is that:

The ZIP-code restriction is about the Aliso Canyon gas leak. More specifically, this is money ultimately intended to benefit residents of Porter Ranch and nearby communities affected by the 2015–16 Aliso Canyon disaster, not a generic clean-energy grant that happens to be located there.

The Aliso Canyon gas leak was a big deal with thousands of families evacuated for months so it’s not surprising that money is allocated to that problem but note that the grants are not for organization serving the people or region affected by the gas leak (which is much larger than zip 91326) but for an organization headquartered in ZIP Code 91326. I smelled a payoff. So I pushed ChatGPT to investigate:

It may be [a payoff], but the evidence supports a narrower claim: the Round 3 rules look unusually tailored to make Save Porter Ranch a likely recipient.

The strongest facts are:

  • The legislature appropriated $2 million from the Aliso Canyon Recovery Account for CBO outreach in Los Angeles County, prioritizing a broad “Aliso Canyon Disaster Area” containing 11 communities—not Porter Ranch alone.
  • CPUC’s first round distributed roughly $1.3 million through a normal competitive process across multiple organizations.
  • For Round 3, CPUC suddenly restricts eligibility to organizations headquartered in the single ZIP code 91326, with a maximum award of $75,000 and exclusion of previous recipients.
  • Save Porter Ranch is headquartered at 19360 Rinaldi Street, Porter Ranch, CA 91326 and has been an active participant in CPUC proceedings concerning Aliso Canyon for years.

That is suggestive because the legislative authorization itself does not appear to require this hyper-local 91326 restriction. It defines the relevant disaster area much more broadly. CPUC therefore seems to have exercised administrative discretion to create a tiny eligibility pool.

I would distinguish three possibilities:

  1. Benign geographic set-aside: CPUC noticed that none of the first-round money had gone to an organization actually based in Porter Ranch and reserved the final $75,000 for a local group.
  2. De facto earmark: CPUC knew that Save Porter Ranch was one of very few qualifying CBOs in 91326 and wrote the eligibility rule sufficiently narrowly that it was highly likely to win.
  3. Quid pro quo/payoff: the money was deliberately directed to Save Porter Ranch in exchange for support, silence, settlement behavior, etc.

We have substantial circumstantial evidence for #2, but I have seen no evidence yet for #3. Calling it a “payoff” requires some evidence about why CPUC created the ZIP restriction or about communications with Save Porter Ranch.

I wasn’t satisfied so I pushed the investigation deeper and ChatGPT investigated the legislative history. It found that

The 91326 restriction did not originate with CPUC staff. The Legislature itself inserted it into the 2026 budget cleanup bill, and it is unusually specific….The evidence [for a payoff] is considerably stronger than I thought.

…If I were writing this up now, the sharp factual formulation would be: “In an August 2026 budget bill, the California Legislature quietly directed the CPUC to hold an otherwise-unplanned third grant round restricted to nonprofits headquartered in a single Porter Ranch ZIP code. One conspicuous beneficiary of that restriction is Save Porter Ranch, the local Aliso Canyon advocacy organization, which had previously helped lobby state officials over how Aliso Canyon penalty funds should be spent.”

I then asked ChatGPT to “look for overlap in Save Porter Ranch and CA legislatures, e.g. spouses, children, business partners.” It replied:

The strongest link is Richard Mathews. Save Porter Ranch’s IRS filings list Mathews as a director alongside Matt Pakucko and Kyoko Hibino. Mathews is also the longtime president of the North Valley Democratic Club. He previously served as a regional vice chair of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party and on the California Democratic Party executive board and its Legislation Committee.

That puts a Save Porter Ranch director directly inside the local/state Democratic Party apparatus, not merely in occasional contact with elected officials.

…the Mathews connection is stronger than I expected. This isn’t just an advocacy organization obtaining support from politicians. One of Save Porter Ranch’s three disclosed directors was simultaneously a fairly senior Democratic Party insider whose political club includes and supports legislators involved in the relevant legislative machinery.

…The missing piece remains the most important one: who requested the sentence “headquartered within ZIP Code 91326”?

I enjoyed the fact that ChatGPT seems excited by the new discoveries! Digging deeper:

That gives us a much tighter network than we had initially:

Save Porter Ranch
→ director Richard Mathews
→ president, North Valley Democratic Club
→ Schiavo and Gabriel are identified as club members / repeatedly endorsed by it
→ Schiavo sits on Budget + Utilities & Energy and represents the affected area
→ Gabriel chairs Assembly Budget
→ August 28 Assembly budget amendments insert a bespoke ZIP-code restriction
→ restriction makes Save Porter Ranch an unusually obvious potential recipient.

There is another revealing feature. The amendment was handled as part of a budget-bill junior rather than through ordinary policy legislation. The public legislative history is extraordinarily thin: amendment August 28, withdrawn from committee August 30, passed August 31. Neither Gabriel’s Assembly presentation nor Laird’s Senate presentation told legislators that the “third round” was actually limited to one ZIP code. Gabriel merely said CPUC must offer “a third round of unspent funds”; Laird similarly described a third round “as specified.” The Assembly passed it 72–0.

That doesn’t demonstrate corruption, but it is exactly how a highly localized legislative earmark can pass with effectively zero scrutiny.

Alas, “the remaining decisive evidence probably isn’t indexed on the web.” Still, you get the idea.

Of course, this is small potatoes by the standards of California political/regulatory friends and families but it’s a nice case study in political economy. How do we want government to work? Is this ethical? What if the sums were much larger? What if the funds went to an equally well-connected group but for a less justifiable cause?   

It’s always surprised me that most public choice is not done in this micro-history way. My early paper on the Separation of Commercial and Investment Banking: The Morgans vs. The Rockefellers (which was inspired by Burch’s magnificent Elites in American History which hardly any public choice scholars know) is one of the few examples. I could have done many more papers along those lines but archival history didn’t appeal to me although I did learn a lot digging through Carter Glass’s papers at UVA. I suppose economists like models and consider this sort of thing journalism or history at best.

If you want more details on CA 91326 you can read my whole conversation with ChatGPT.

The post CA 91326: A Public Choice Mystery Investigation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Britain’s last great airship

Photo of an airship labelled R101 flying above a grassy field with cows and a tall structure in the background.

The remarkable engineering and tragic demise of the vessel that would end Britain’s dream to dominate the skies

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Where a land ethic blooms

A lush green landscape with hills and distant cattle under a cloudy sky, suggesting a tranquil rural setting.

Caring for this planet entails decisions that are intimate, about our farms, our homes, our human and our wild neighbours

- by Craig Maier

Read on Aeon

*Fear of Data*

The author is Omri Ben-Shahar, and the subtitle is How Privacy Panic Led Tech Regulation Astray — and How to Fix It.  I would describe this book as bracing, and full of substantive engagement.  Basically the author wishes to give privacy considerations less weight in social decisions.  Excerpt:

What is the concrete evidence for the benefits of facial recognition technology in investigation of  human-trafficking crimes?  I would love to have found global estimates of the magnitude — of the trafficking victims rescued through the most advanced facial recognition methods — but all I have is a collage of reports [reports are then described].

One chapter is entitled “The Futility of Personal Rights.”  Agree or not, this book is full of actual arguments, so I approve.

The post *Fear of Data* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Ed Zitron’s AI Prediction Track Record

Dan Luu serves up some copiously documented claim chowder:

After this point, most further predictions that I saw were either non-falsifiable or resolve in the future. Note that I didn’t attempt to catalogue statements that are nonsensical or were simply factually incorrect statements at the time, such as his December 2024 claim that “Generative AI’s products have effectively been trapped in amber for over a year.” January 2026 claim that “[models are] basically the same as they were a year ago. They have the same efficacy”. Zitron has not only made forward-looking statements that AI capabilities will not improve, he’s also consistently made backwards-looking statements that capabilities have not improved which, while obviously false at the time, seem to play well to his base (along with his other false statements). If you connect all his statements together, it’s implied that AI had the same capabilities in January 2026 as they did in December 2023 (and if you connect later statements, it’s actually implied that capabilities in August 2026 are the same as in December 2023, though to be fair to Zitron he frequently contradicts himself and has also admitted to limited improvement in mid 2026).

 ★ 

My economics-rich Conversation with Gita Gopinath

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary:

Gita Gopinath has spent the last several years inside the room where the world’s monetary plumbing gets fixed — or doesn’t. As first deputy managing director of the IMF and, before that, the Fund’s chief economist, she worked on sovereign debt restructuring, followed Argentina’s disinflation up close, and built her academic reputation on ideas like dollar dominance and the dominant currency paradigm. Now back at Harvard launching a new Global Economics Lab, her conversation with Tyler ranges from why exchange rates don’t adjust the way models predict, to what stablecoins really cost, to whether AI’s growth dividend will show up on schedule.

Tyler and Gita discuss why trade balances are only weakly related to real exchange rates, before turning to Argentina, Milei’s fiscal discipline, the peso, and dollarization. Then they discuss whether economists got the euro wrong; whether trade imbalances with China are really the problem; stablecoins, CBDCs, and the Treasury market; and whether AI will ease the debt burden, cause stagflation, or transform economics itself. Finally, they turn to her family’s Kerala roots: why the state keeps electing communists, the relationship between matriarchy and social indicators, single-sex education, and what she’s building next.

Excerpt:

COWEN: Now, Scott Sumner argues we shouldn’t be worried about trade imbalances at all. We don’t worry about them across American states. A lot of the EU has a pretty big current account surplus. Not many people are worried about that. Yet when it comes to China, the talk is all about trade imbalances. Scott argues that’s more of a political project than an actual economic argument. Do you agree with Scott or not?

GOPINATH: I would agree with Scott along the following lines, which is that the trade imbalance in and of itself is not something that we should be focused on. I think what we care about is welfare, and welfare involves jobs and consumption, what’s inflation, purchasing power, and so on. People do not wake up in the morning saying, “Okay, my current account deficit is too big, or my current account surplus is too big.” If all of your policies that were delivering good outcomes for your country were to bring along a deficit or a surplus, that’s perfectly fine. There are lots of good reasons to be running deficits and surpluses we know. There’s nothing that tells you that you shouldn’t.

The problem arises when you have policies that countries have in place that are inconsistent with any kind of a balanced growth model, and they manifest themselves in that trade deficits and surpluses. This is what I’m saying as an economist.

Now, of course, from a politician’s perspective, there are other arguments for why they would point to it. What we have seen historically over and over again is that whenever you had these increases in these deficits and surpluses, you’ve had trade wars or calls for protectionism. That’s what happened during Reagan’s time, 1980s. That’s what led to the Plaza Accord and then all the adjustments that followed after that.

Then you also do worry about the possibility of crises. The Great Financial Crisis was preceded by growing imbalances. There was a sense in which all this big savings glut. All this money flushing around. All these large surpluses and deficits were part of the problem. Now I would say where we are now in this third wave of concern about imbalances.

To be clear, it’s not the imbalance itself. As an economist, I would say that it’s not the imbalance in itself. You don’t wake up and say, “This is what I’m trying to prevent. I’m trying to prevent us from having a deficit. I want us to have balanced trade.” I think that’s bad economics.

COWEN: Say China is channeling what would have been wage income into investment, and that’s plausibly the case. Now, it may be politically unstable in the sense that we Americans object to it, but that’s not an argument per se, right? We have a choice as to whether or not we should object to it. It doesn’t seem that rigorous to say, well, this will cause another financial crisis like 2008. There’s just not real evidence for that. Scott Sumner would say, “Let’s just be happy we have cheaper goods. We send them paper. We get back stuff and go our merry way.” Why is that wrong?

GOPINATH: A few things. Firstly, I could go into these differences between trade deficits and surpluses versus what I would call sectoral imbalances, or the fact that China’s running a big manufacturing surplus, which is different from a trade surplus itself, or that it has big EV production. What we do recognize, again, is that we do a pretty bad job in moving or helping workers that have lost their jobs in certain sectors.

COWEN: We’re at full employment now or very close to it.

GOPINATH: Again, we’re at full employment right now, but we’ve had this period of time when we had communities that were deeply affected by—not just trade—automation was a big part of it too. We don’t do a great job in terms of getting people back into jobs, and that can affect, depending upon your ideal welfare function for the country, if you care a lot about those people, then obviously in that case, that’s something that should matter in your policy decisions.

In the case of China, I would say firstly that, in both the case of the US and China, we’re very far from the world where countries are doing good policies, and this is all about comparative advantage, and this is all about this would be the outcome we would have in a world where every country was doing the right policy. We’re very far from that.

China’s surpluses are a reflection of things going wrong in China. It’s not a reflection of strength in China. It’s a reflection of weak consumption. It’s a reflection of misallocated resources going into different sectors. They did that with their property markets. Now they have a huge property market problem that they haven’t been able to fix in five years. They have this now with other markets, including EVs and the other sectors. They have the problem with inflation being too low.

They’re trying to do so called anti-involution policies, bringing companies together and telling them, “You’ve got to keep prices higher than what you’re doing right now.” This is not the world where they’re playing good policies, and this is all comparative advantage, and this is the outcome that we see. I wouldn’t push the argument that this is, “Oh, we should be just happier with cheaper goods from China.”

Economics throughout…

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Cloudy Cloak Over the Northwest

Low-lying clouds cover western Washington and Oregon between the Pacific coast and the foothills of the Cascade Range. Parts of the Olympic Mountains and Oregon Coast Range are visible above the clouds.
September 19, 2026
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

Cool, marine air rolling off the Pacific Ocean led to a picturesque layer of morning clouds over western Washington and Oregon in mid-September 2026. Low-lying stratus clouds and fog extended as far inland as the western foothills of the Cascade Range. Near the coast, taller portions of the Olympic Mountains in Washington and the Oregon Coast Range appeared island-like, protruding above the cloud layer.

The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite shows the extent of the Pacific Northwest’s cloudy cloak on September 19, 2026, at about 10:45 a.m. Pacific Time (17:45 Universal Time). Abundant clouds also appear offshore over the Pacific, while smoke from wildland fires fills valleys in the North Cascades.

For several nights in a row, marine air flowed onshore, according to the National Weather Service, bringing with it low-level clouds known as marine stratus. These clouds form when moist air near the surface, trapped beneath a warmer air layer in a temperature inversion, cools enough for its water vapor to condense. The surge of cool, moist conditions was particularly strong early on September 19, producing cloudy conditions all the way up to the Cascade foothills. Some areas witnessed foggy conditions, where clouds extended down to the ground.

That same day, when NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the area at about 4:15 p.m. Pacific Time (23:15 Universal Time), skies had cleared over much of the area. However, some marine clouds still clung to the Oregon coast, where temperatures stayed cooler than inland locations.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

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Changes to App Tracking Transparency in the E.U.

Apple Developer:

As part of agreements with select European competition authorities, Apple is introducing changes to its App Tracking Transparency framework in the European Union. Beginning with iOS 27.2 and iPadOS 27.2, developers will have the option to use an alternative version of the App Tracking Transparency system prompt in the EU. The requirements for when you must seek permission to track users will remain the same. Due to legal requirements, only the alternative version of the system prompt is available for apps distributed in Germany, France, Italy, Poland, and Romania.

In addition, for users in the European Union, you can reprompt [sic] a user via the App Tracking Transparency system prompt one year after the user’s previous choice in your app’s App Tracking Transparency system prompt, regardless of whether that choice was to accept or reject. A user cannot be re-prompted if they have disabled “Allow Apps to Request to Track” (renamed to “Allow Apps to Request to Link Your Activity Across Companies” in the EU) in their device’s Settings.

As Benjamin Mayo notes, “Allow Apps to Request to Link Your Activity Across Companies” is catchy.

The gist of this is that there are three constituent groups: Apple, users, and third-party developers. I’ve long argued that Apple prioritizes those groups in that order. What DMA/EU proponents have fooled themselves into believing is that the European Commission works to move users into, or at least closer to, the top spot. The truth is that they (and national regulatory authorities in Europe) work to move third-party developers and publishers into a more privileged position, at the expense of users’ privacy and experience. Users don’t want to be tracked without permission. Apple doesn’t want users to be tracked without their permission. But an awful lot of third-party developers and publishers want to track users without their permission or knowledge.

Just getting the term changed from “tracking” (one word, easily understood) to “linking your activity across companies” (five words, obfuscated) tells you all you need to know.

See also: Nick Heer has a different take at Pixel Envy.

 ★ 

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 261146
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo,
located south of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day
or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early to middle part of next week. The system is
expected to move generally northeastward, and remain well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Reinhart
NNNN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


400
ABNT20 KNHC 261157
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located just east-northeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands, and on Tropical Depression Fay, located well to the
west-southwest of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Katz


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo,
located south of the Big Island of Hawaii.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP90):
An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues
to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity
increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or
two as the system continues to move slowly to the west-northwest or
northwest. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day
or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early to middle part of next week. The system is
expected to move generally northeastward, and remain well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Reinhart


On August 15, this On August 15, this


Significant Coastal Impacts to the Eastern Seaboard; Hurricane Nolo to Impact Hawaii