On COVID Conspiracies and Mink Farms

We’re potentially doing the same old same old in Utah. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

A key feature of the various COVID lab leaks (note the plural) hypotheses and other related COVID conspiracies is they are much more exciting than the boring obvious explanations like an infected animal managed to infect people in a food market. I bring this up because, in Utah, there is a mink farm that has an avian influenza outbreak (boldface mine):

Under the right conditions, however, that could change. A single mutation could give the bird flu a foothold in people and spark a pandemic that experts fear could be deadlier than COVID-19.

For that to happen, this bird flu would likely need to find an intermediate host — an animal vulnerable to viruses that infect both birds and humans. These animals would be crowded together, each infection raising the odds that a new strain could arise through mutation. Then, for that strain to jump across species, it would have to have access to humans and time to spread among them undetected.

That perfect petri dish exists right now, a ProPublica investigation found. For over two months, an outbreak of bird flu has raged uncontrolled on a Utah farm that raises thousands of mink for fur. Mink have lungs and airways that on a cellular level are remarkably similar to those of people; they have caught and spread other flus and infected some humans with COVID-19.

Instead of trying to stop the outbreak and prevent it from spilling into humans, state and federal officials have done little except try to keep its existence quiet, our investigation shows. The failure to act amounts to a cascade of missteps flu experts called “irresponsible” and “puzzling.” One called it “playing with fire.”

Imagine the worst case scenario, and avian influenza jumps from this farm to cause a massive outbreak, or even another pandemic. We wouldn’t need to invoke a lab leak or UKRAINIAN BIOLABZ!! The answer would be boring and mundane: the Trump administration and the Great State of Utah failed to take action*. To the extent there was a conspiracy, it would have occured right out there in the open. Nothing more nefarious than typical bureaucratic inertia combined with wishful thinking (i.e., the jump to humans wouldn’t happen).

Of course, there would be a good chance that the both state and federal officials would then engage in a bunch of suspicious behavior as part of that age-old behavior known as ass-covering. Any lack of coordination between various parts of government, such as state and local governments or different agencies, could be viewed as part of a coverup, not incompetence.

The key thing is, while this would be tragic, it is ordinary, if bad, behavior for institutions and governments.

Whether this applies to various COVID-related conspiracies is left as an exercise for the reader.

*And Congress needs to expand reimbursement policies to cover mink farms.

October 25, 2026

And so, here we are in the last days of the 2026 midterm campaign.

As the political winds fill Democrats’ sails and they are picking up momentum, MAGA is doubling down on what has worked in the past: a false narrative undergirded by cruelty. But that false narrative is now so out of sync with reality that it does not seem to be attracting voters.

Trump and his allies keep saying they are digging the United States economy out of a hole dug by former president Joe Biden, but on October 19, 2024, The Economist called the U.S. economy “The Envy of the World.” Trump disagreed, insisting that Biden’s economy was horrible.

He promised the new tariffs he intended to impose would create an economic miracle. Just hours after his second inauguration, he said that tariffs were “the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary,” because “tariffs are going to make us rich as hell. It’s going to bring our country’s businesses back that left us.”

Now Republicans are studiously avoiding the word “tariffs” except when someone like Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), who is facing a strong challenge to her reelection from Democrat Troy Jackson, tries to attract voters by announcing she persuaded Trump to take off some of the tariffs he had placed just two months ago on goods from Canada. In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers, struggling to pull out a win against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in a race for the U.S. Senate, ran an ad holding a Canadian beer and saying “end this tariff war now.”

On Friday, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal noted that while Republicans spent more than $2.2 million in 2024 on ads promoting tariffs, in 2026 they have spent zero.

At rallies and in appearances before the media—including calling in to the Fox News Channel—Trump insists the economy is booming. One of his main examples, though, is that the country is making trillions of dollars because his war on Iran has created oil shortages. At a rally yesterday, he told the audience: “We’re making a freaking fortune.”

But “we” is doing a lot of work in that statement. Oil companies and their investors—like Trump—are indeed making a fortune, but the rest of the country is suffering under climbing gasoline prices and record high diesel costs, which have driven up the prices of food and anything that travels by train or truck. At a rally today, Trump said the great things he and the Republicans have done will “kick in later.”

Trump insisted tariffs and his war on Iran were his policies and his alone, intended to take credit for the prosperity he believed they would usher in. Having claimed the policies for his own, he now cannot deflect blame for the crises they have caused. So MAGA candidates are trying to attract votes by warning that Democrats will be even worse, and doubling down on culture wars.

Although Trump has embraced the Muslims from Qatar who gave him the luxury plane he now uses as Air Force One, as well as Muslim leaders from Saudi Arabia, and appointed Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is Muslim, to head the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, he and his allies have tried to attract voters by attacking Muslim Democrats El-Sayed, a medical doctor like Oz, and Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN) as dangerous radicals.

Early in the morning of October 12, as many as 25 agents from the Department of Homeland Security raided the home of Representative Omar, searching it for four to five hours in what Jake Tapper of CNN reported is an attempt to prove that her late father lied about her age in the family’s citizenship papers.

Ted Hesson, Jeremy Roebuck, Perry Stein, and Salvador Rizzo of the Washington Post reported that political appointees in the first Trump administration had tried to find something on Omar in 2019, but had not been able to find any issues with her immigration paperwork.

After Omar talked to Chris Hayes of MS NOW, Allison Detzel reported that Omar had said the agents left with her phone, two old phones, “her husband’s notebooks and a camera he had received from his uncle,” and “a Somali phrase book for children, which her husband was using to learn the language.”

“To walk away with 17 items, of, like, 10 that were just notebooks and like old phones, was such a bizarre, bizarre thing,” Omar said, and suggested the raid was simply fodder for right-wing media. It has also revealed where she lived, forcing her and her family to move for their safety.

After the raid, Trump demanded first that Omar resign, and then on Friday told a rally that she had “conceded” her congressional seat.

Trump is also trying to demonize Dr. El-Sayed, posting today that the doctor, who was born in the United States and thus is a natural-born citizen, is “a Jihadist Member of the Muslim Brotherhood,” an organization founded in Egypt in 1928. Under Trump, the U.S. government has designated some of the branches of the movement as terrorist organizations. Trump appears to believe the words are frightening and wants to tie them to the Democrat as his popularity surges against Rogers in Michigan.

That attempt hasn’t gone well. When a man challenged him at a town hall to disavow the Muslim Brotherhood, El-Sayed answered, “Sure, yeah, absolutely,” and then suggested “Tommy,” as the man identified himself, was accusing El-Sayed of dual loyalties, likening those accusations to those John F. Kennedy faced during his 1960 presidential campaign.

El-Sayed reminded the man that the Constitution guarantees freedom of religion and then turned the tables, asking the man if he would disavow the attempt to push religion into American law. Tommy said he would not disavow that effort. El-Sayed then told Tommy that he, not El-Sayed, was the man who needed to understand the Constitution. Tommy left the room, and days later Marisa Kabas of The Handbasket reported that Tommy was Thomas Teepell, a Republican operative with ties to Christian nationalists.

Today, in an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, Mike Rogers tried again to tie El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood, only to have host Kristen Welker point out that he, Rogers, had called for talks with the Muslim Brotherhood in 2012. Rogers appeared flustered, trying to turn the conversation back to what he insisted was El-Sayed’s radicalism.

And then there is Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad featuring Democratic candidate Amy Acton’s homeless biological mother, who called Acton a liar for saying she had lived in a tent as a child. The ad didn’t tell the full story: officials removed 12-year-old Acton and her younger brother from their mother after a grand jury indicted her stepfather for raping her. Court records bear out both that story and that they lived in a tent.

Rather than painting Acton as a liar, the ad reveals both Ramaswamy and those who supported the ad—including Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and MAGA influencers—as men willing to weaponize the rape of a child if it helps them win power. Donations to Acton surged in the wake of the ad as members of both parties condemned it.

American Catholics have slid away from their support for Trump, especially since Pope Leo XIV, the first pope born in the United States, has pointedly criticized the administration’s cruelty to immigrants. And so, allies of the White House arranged for a photo op of Catholic leaders praying over Trump in the Oval Office.

Today Archbishop Jeffrey Grob of Milwaukee issued a public apology for participating in the prayer event, and said the White House had publicized it “without the consent of the participants.” He insisted that praying for the president “was in no way an endorsement of the president, his policies, or his party.

Grob said he went to the White House with fellow bishops to discuss “immigration enforcement, religious worker visas, and human dignity.” “We were told the meeting was to be a private discussion, that several Catholic members of the cabinet might make an appearance, and that there could be an opportunity to pray privately with the president.”

After the private meeting with domestic policy advisors, they were ushered into the Oval Office, where Trump gave them commemorative tokens. He explained: “We were then directed to stand behind him and pray. After which several photos were taken and we were ushered out. Unbeknownst to the group of bishops a video was also taken. But permission for the public distribution or posting of either the video or photos was not given by the bishops.”

The White House immediately released the video and photos, Grob said, and he began to receive “messages of serious concern over the possibility that I had inadvertently participated in a political event less than two weeks before a national election” and communications from those hurt by the president’s policies.

“I feel a heavy sadness, not only over the pain I caused, but also for the fact that something so sacred to a group of religious leaders, prayer to our Heavenly Father, would be manipulated in that way. We came in good faith…, not to pose for a political photo opportunity,” he wrote. “We should never have been put in that position by the White House. I did not go without reservations. I wish I had heeded them.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior is not helping as he makes the Republicans’ closing argument. After repeated and detailed praise of Ohio Republican senator Jon Husted’s “*ss,” to boost his chances against Democratic former senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Trump assured a rally today that rapper Nikki Minaj also has a “one hell of a beautiful *ss,” and urged her to stand up and show it off to the crowd.

Punning off President Kennedy’s famous statement in his 1961 Inaugural Address, “Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country,” conservative lawyer George Conway commented: “*ss not what you can do for your country—*ss what you can do for [Donald Trump].”

It’s quite a closing message for the last days of the 2026 midterm campaign.

In Serbia today, longtime nationalist strongman Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat after nearly two years of street protests led by students led to an election that ousted his party from power. A former diplomat from neighboring Montenegro noted that Vučić perfected a system divided between friends and enemies and in which “every criticism of power is treason.”

An opposition candidate told Andrew Higgins and Alisa Dogramadzieva of the New York Times, “No force can forever overpower a people who have decided to take their destiny into their own hands.” A 24-year-old engineering student celebrated the change in government: “For the first time in my adult life, I’m seeing a change of government. After so many years under the same leadership, I’m happy that I’ll finally get to live in a free, normal country.”

In Brazil, leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term in a runoff election with right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who in 2022 tried to stop the transfer of power to Lula and consolidate his power over the government and is now under house arrest. The younger Bolsonaro says he will not accept the results of the election.

—

Notes:

https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2024-10-19

https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5355661/tariffs-history-meaning

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/how-tariffs-became-the-most-hated-word-in-politics-eeed7932

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/trump-oil-gas-holdings-iran-war.html

https://abcnews.com/Politics/dr-oz-make-history-muslim-senator-faith-big/story?id=90541966

https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/20/politics/investigators-interview-ilhan-omar-sister

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/10/15/trump-officials-scrutinized-omar-2019-they-didnt-find-citizenship-issues/

https://www.ms.now/news/ilhan-omar-raid-interview-trump

https://people.com/ilhan-omar-says-she-has-to-move-because-of-death-threats-after-federal-agents-raided-her-home-seized-17-personal-items-12188812

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-claims-ilhan-omars-seat-conceded-by-democrats-12616349

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/19/abdul-el-sayed-heckler-tommy

https://www.ms.now/opinion/abdul-el-sayed-mchigan-tommy-election

https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/tommy-teepell-abdul-el-sayed-viral-video-town-hall-josh-hawley

https://www.newsweek.com/mike-rogers-scrutinized-over-muslim-brotherhood-amid-el-sayed-attacks-12616180

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/23/1978-court-documents-shed-light-explosive-ohio-political-ad/

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6166387-ohio-acton-democrats-donations-ramaswamy-ad/

https://www.archmil.org/posts/a-public-apology-archbishop-jeffrey-grob

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/world/europe/serbia-vucic-election-defeat.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cmgelnrd4r3jt?post=asset%3A10277195-0669-46f4-879e-7290eff9237a

X:

Acyn/status/2114153893248803088

gtconway3d/status/2114465037322772553

AbdulElSayed/status/2107851013826752558?s=20

Trump’s Truth:

statuses/42718

Bluesky:

ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3myp6pziyps2s

richard.wickedproblems.earth/post/3mypjplw4nc2b

abdulelsayed.bsky.social/post/3my4gocauzs2x

atrupar.com/post/3myq2hf24s725

atrupar.com/post/3myq3kfappz2u

atrupar.com/post/3mypebtwc322e

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A New Approach

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w/e 2026-10-25

Up and down again this week, not helped by it now being winter – gales, rain, cloudy skies – and several nights featuring hours lying awake. Searching for the bright side, the downs feel more related to specific issues than the overall and overwhelming downs of a couple of months ago did.

I’m guessing the lack of sleeping is due to continuing to be a bit slack about exercise. As someone fully on board with the importance of regular exercise (no matter how tedious it is to do) it’s been more of an effort than I expected to make it a frequent and regular thing again, after pausing much of it for a while because of probably-breaking my toe in June. Maybe next week!


§ I guess this week’s shenanigans with web security issues with PHP and other things didn’t help. I mean, I had it easy because I’ve long had a rule of not managing a server of my own. I pay extra to have Mythic Beasts manage a VPS for my Python sites, and use their shared hosting for static and PHP sites. They were, of course, on top of the updates so, other than making sure the latter were using a recent PHP version for peace of mind, I didn’t have to actually do much.

But it feels like another nail in the coffin of my enthusiasm for doing stuff online. The abundance of hastily AI-generated sites that do 80% of the functionality (without the remaining 80% of finesse) often has me, despite myself, thinking, “why bother?” Why bother crafting anything by hand like a mug, only to have it beset by spammers, scraped to death by AI crawlers, the data scraped for other peoples’ AI-generated sites, all while AI-discovered vulnerabilities add a sense of, “it’s only a matter of time before it gets hacked”.

On the other hand, one full of clutched straws, if the only reassuringly safe way to make websites is to run locked-down static sites with no server-side code, then maybe that’s exactly the return of the good old days of FTPing HTML files to shared hosting that old gits like me reminisce about. But – looks around at the teetering pile of Python running the various parts of this site – I don’t know how I go back from here.


§ Mid-week I decided to get a grip on getting things done (if not Getting Things Done): for ages I’ve felt overwhelmed by the huge amount of non-urgent things I need to do, while my office fills with parental belongings to find new homes for, and my websites are neglected, and life admin goes undone, etc. So overwhelmed that I end up not doing any of it, the vicious circle of unproductivity.

So, I thought, rather than thinking about all of these tasks and it being too much, just pick one each day. Do that one thing. Don’t feel you need to do any more. Do that, then relax and do something you enjoy. Don’t feel life has to be an unending stream of chores until you finish them all (ha!).

Unfortunately, five days later, the first task – deal with all the emails I’ve been putting off dealing with for weeks and weeks – is still not complete. But, still, I haven’t been thinking too much about all the other stuff while this has been ongoing, so that’s progress.


§ We’ve been thinking of replacing our bedroom furniture, which was here when we moved in. I’ve done a number of layouts in IKEA’s PLATSA planner and I returned to it this week thinking that we’d finally do this.

Only to find the PLATSA range was drastically cut earlier this year and they no longer make any of the units we were after. Both its replacement, LASTARE, and PAX only consist of wardrobes, unlike PLATSA which also had chests of drawers and more. And I’ve seen that PAX is now much less substantial than it was up until not long ago.

So maybe, at this point in life, we’ll look for something nicer (and pricier). Frustrating though.


§ OK, good news, for those of you still here: we had our lovely builders here on Friday. They plastered over the plasterboard that covered over an unused doorway 18 months ago, and filled in and plastered the hole in the wall that the heat-pump installers left behind when removing the old boiler. (It seems weird, but common, that such tradespeople/companies don’t have builders that come round afterwards to fill up holes and other messes left behind.)

They also identified the cause of the intermittent leak in a downstairs ceiling and will fix it, and will replace several doors and door furniture for us. Having things fixed and improved around the house, beyond my limited DIY abilities, feels like an impossible thing to achieve. And then friendly, down-to-earth, helpful, capable builders pop in and stuff just gets done, well. Amazing, who knew?


§ We finished the sixth season of Slow Horses which was… well most of it seemed even more unbelievable than before. Not in a “this isn’t like the real security services” way but in a “these people don’t behave like actual humans” way and an “OK, that is several wild coincidences too many” way. And yet the final episode, which was mostly action, worked well and so I ended feeling more positive about the season as a whole than I had done previously.

I re-watched Henry Fool (Hal Hartley, 1997) which was still good, although my attention wandered somewhat part-way through, 137 minutes being a bit too long for this story I thought. But Thomas Jay Ryan as Henry Fool in his first(?) movie role is excellent at delivering Hartley’s arch dialogue with conviction.

And we watched Mission: Impossible – Fallout (#6). It’s only been a couple of months since we watched the previous one but neither of us had much memory of what happened in that, so were confused throughout about who some people were and what side they were on, not helped by all the double-crossing. And I lost interest during some of the more talky bits. The action was great though, and there’s a lot of it.


§ That’s all, just in time for Monday lunchtime.


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The MR Archive!

The Marginal Revolution archive is now live at https://marginalrevolution.com/ai-archive/. You can also find it from the “Download Full Archive” link in the left menu.

The purpose of the archive is twofold, first as Tyler has said we love our human readers and our AI readers and we want to make it as easy as possible for the AIs to read all of our material. Two hundred years from now when someone asks what is a price? I want the AI to answer “A price is a signal wrapped up in an incentive.”

Second, the archive makes it easy to treat the enormous MR Archive as a resource and database. Point your AI to the archive and ask it questions. I will be covering a few of these this week including the post right below this one, Tyler Cowen’s Strongest Book Recommendations Over the Years.

The archive has two downloads:

  • Baseline: the historical archive through September 30, 2026.
  • Weekly update: automatically rebuilt each week with everything added since the baseline. Download the baseline and the latest update to get the complete archive.

It includes published posts, approved comments, and aggregate comment likes and dislikes. The text is lightly sanitized: email addresses, IP addresses, phone numbers, and a small number of slurs have been redacted.

AI agents are welcome to download the archive. They can find instructions in https://marginalrevolution.com/llms.txt; the file list and download details are in https://marginalrevolution.com/ai-archive/manifest.json.

Many thanks to Luis Abrigo and team for making this possible.

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Tyler Cowen’s Strongest Book Recommendations, 2003-2026

From the Archive–these posts are written by AI. 

Cowen’s strongest recommendations include 1491, The Power Broker, Knausgaard’s first two My Struggle volumes, Fuchsia Dunlop’s Chinese cookbooks, and Meetings with Remarkable Manuscripts. These stand out through unusually strong praise, repeated endorsement, or both. The analysis uses qualitative, book-specific sentiment analysis: explicit superlatives, strength of recommendation, repeat endorsements, and evidence that a book changed his thinking or behavior. Qualifications and discussion context also matter. The result is a top tier, not a definitive ordinal ranking—Cowen rarely compares these books directly.

The strongest recommendations across the archive

Book Evidence of enthusiasm Interpretation
Charles C. Mann, 1491 “one of my favorite books ever, in any field.” May 22, 2011. Among his clearest unrestricted endorsements. The post reviews 1493, but this particular praise explicitly concerns 1491.
Robert Caro, The Power Broker “one of the best non-fiction books ever.” April 15, 2012. An enduring benchmark: in 2026, he uses Caro’s biography of Moses as the standard against which to praise Skidelsky.
Karl Ove Knausgaard, My Struggle, volumes 1–2 He calls the second volume “one of the greatest novels ever written” and selects it as his fiction book of the year. November 16, 2013. Particularly strong evidence of durability: both volumes return in his 2022 favorites and 2024 best-since-2000 selections.
Fuchsia Dunlop, Land of Plenty / its expanded successor The Food of Sichuan “one of the best and most valuable books ever produced.” July 2, 2019. Exceptionally strong praise across genres, reinforced by years of use and discussion. His enthusiasm extends to Every Grain of Rice: “I will buy everything she writes, forever.” February 3, 2013.
Christopher de Hamel, Meetings with Remarkable Manuscripts A possible number-one book of 2016 becomes “one of the very greatest books of the last twenty years.” November 5, 2016; June 22, 2026. One of the strongest examples of an enthusiastic initial judgment surviving a decade.
Robert Skidelsky, three-volume biography of Keynes “one of the very best books ever written.” April 16, 2026. An explicit all-time endorsement. He specifically prefers the three-volume biography to the one-volume condensation.
John Stuart Mill, The Subjection of Women “one of the very best books ever written, on any topic.” September 11, 2022. Strong recommendation plus intellectual influence: he says he drew his views from Mill and urges everyone to read it.
Tony Judt, Postwar “one of my favorite books ever.” February 6, 2012. Important attribution trap: the surrounding post is a mixed review of a different Judt book. A whole-post sentiment score would understate his enthusiasm for Postwar.
Robert Cialdini, Influence “one of my all-time favorite books.” February 26, 2007. A particularly direct early recommendation, embedded in a discussion of affiliation and persuasion.
M. A. Orthofer, The Complete Review Guide to Contemporary World Fiction “one of the best books written, ever”—conditional on its practical value to the reader. April 10, 2016. His behavioral evidence is striking: the manuscript prompted him to order about forty books. Best suited to avid fiction readers.

 

Annual winners provide a second reading list

An all-time favorite and a particular year’s winner are different signals. These are especially clear annual selections:

Recommendation year Book or books he singled out
2011 Steven Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature, Walter Isaacson’s Steve Jobs, and Haruki Murakami’s 1Q84: three standouts he says virtually everyone who reads the relevant genres should read. He had not finished 1Q84 at that point. November 8, 2011.
2014 John Drury’s Music at Midnight: The Life and Poetry of George Herbert, his explicit number one. November 24, 2014.
2015 Eyal Weizman and Fazal Sheikh’s The Conflict Shoreline, a late selection that displaced his earlier contenders. December 26, 2015.
2017 Bruno Maçães’s The Dawn of Eurasia, conditional on counting a book formally released the following January. December 2, 2017.
2018 Emily Wilson’s translation of Homer’s Odyssey, his explicit best-book nomination. November 25, 2018.
2019 Eric Kaufmann’s Whiteshift and Pekka Hämäläinen’s Lakota America share his top prize. November 25, 2019.
2020 David S. Reynolds’s Abe, Heather Clark’s Red Comet, and Jan Swafford’s Mozart: The Reign of Love form his final top three. December 18, 2020.
2023 Jonny Steinberg’s Winnie and Nelson: Portrait of a Marriage, selected partly because he thought his recommendation would be especially useful to readers. November 21, 2023.

These are selected clear winners, rather than a complete annual series. In some years he declines to choose one.

What the sentiment and discussion reveal

Repeated enthusiasm is more persuasive than a spectacular adjective. Knausgaard, Dunlop, and de Hamel have particularly strong longitudinal evidence. But precision matters: Cowen’s enthusiasm for Knausgaard’s first two volumes should not be transferred uniformly to the whole series. His September 8, 2018 discussion describes volumes 3–5 as often unsatisfying. He values books that change how he sees or does things. Orthofer changes his reading purchases; Dunlop changes his cooking; The Conflict Shoreline changes his conception of what a book can accomplish. His strongest praise often concerns explanatory power and intellectual usefulness. Reader discussion is useful context, but a poor ranking instrument. In a spot-check of ten recommendation threads, the post praising Mill had 163 archived comments, while the Cialdini endorsement had four. The former centered on a controversial contemporary debate. Comment volume measures attention to the post, not necessarily enthusiasm for the recommended book. Influence deserves its own category. His March 16, 2010 list of formative books includes Hayek’s Individualism and Economic Order, Keynes’s General Theory, Parfit’s Reasons and Persons, Paglia’s Sexual Personae, and Proust’s Remembrance of Things Past. For understanding Cowen’s intellectual development, that list is more directly relevant than his annual favorites; for finding books he recommends with exceptional enthusiasm, the top-tier table above is the stronger starting point.

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Great art explained: Tamara in the green Bugatti

Art Deco painting of a woman in a headscarf driving a car staring intently, with bold colours and stylised forms.

A very modern conception of womanhood: in the Jazz Age paintings of Tamara de Lempicka, women were bold, free and stylish

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

How to build real peace

Soldiers in a dimly lit room, some standing and some seated on a patterned floor with sunlight streaming through a window behind them.

From Colombia to Syria, I’ve seen that capitalist logic can’t help to rebuild postwar countries but cooperatives can

- by Azize Aslan

Read on Aeon

Brocher conference on boundaries for incentives in organ donation Oct 27-29 in Geneva

 I'm on my way to the Brocher Foundation, near Geneva, for a conference organized by Swisstransplant (SWT) and the Declaration of Istanbul Custodian Group (DICG), on

 Constructive dialogue interrogating boundaries for incentives in organ donation  

"The shortage of organs available for transplantation poses a major challenge to healthcare systems. Some proposals aim to introduce incentives to encourage organ donation. This workshop examines the ethical implications of these strategies and discusses acceptable limits for promoting donation while respecting human dignity." 

Brazil’s economic problems, in a nutshell

It would take true Milei-like ardour to slice through Brazil’s economic troubles. These are caused by a gnarly mix of high public spending, stubborn inflation and low saving. The result is a crippling cost of capital. Some analysts put Brazil’s real interest rate, the BCB’s policy rate adjusted for next year’s expected inflation, at 9% or more. That is higher than in Russia and four times that in peaceful peers like Chile, the Philippines or South Africa.

It all starts with the public finances. Brazil’s 65,000-word doorstop of a constitution bars cuts to nominal public-sector wages and links pension, disability and unemployment benefits to the minimum wage, which is adjusted annually based on recent inflation and GDP growth. This ratchet has lifted mandatory spending to 90% of the federal budget.

It also perpetuates inflationary pressure. This plus a generous welfare state in turn make Brazilians unwilling to save. At 14% of GDP, the national savings rate is 12 percentage points below the world average. If price rises have regularly eroded your bank balance in the past and the state pays for your health care, school and pension, you may as well spend all the money you make right away—especially if, like most people in unequal Brazil, you do not make much to begin with.

Here is more from The Economist.

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Cognitive Mercantilism

I’ve been reading Joyce Appleby’s The Relentless Revolution: A History of Capitalism (2010), and it has me circling a rather delicious thought: AI panic is really a form of cognitive mercantilism. If we regard the market capitalism as the first planetary intelligence, as many (including me) do, the parallels are closer than you might think.

Appleby’s book is a sweeping history of capitalism, from its unlikely emergence in early modern England to its eventual transformation of the entire world. Her central argument is that capitalism was not the inevitable expression of some timeless human instinct to trade and accumulate wealth. It was a historically contingent cultural invention, enabled by agricultural improvements, expanding trade, and changing ideas about work, wealth, and human nature. In particular, it required escaping the assumptions of an older, essentially zero-sum worldview, in which wealth meant controlling land, bullion, and the labor of largely impoverished populations.

Capitalism emerged when people began discovering that wealth could be created rather than merely captured, and that ordinary people could be sources of demand and initiative rather than merely labor to be commanded as a factor of production.

The parallels with our current moment are striking.

As Appleby tells it, the mercantilist worldview that preceded capitalism rested on roughly four interlocking beliefs.

First, wealth was fundamentally scarce and finite. It consisted primarily of land, the agricultural produce of that land, and the precious metals it contained, accumulated through mining, trade and conquest. The goal of economic statecraft was to control more territory, maintain a favorable balance of trade, and accumulate bullion. One nation’s gain was presumed to be another’s loss. The resulting politics was one of treasure-seeking and beggar-thy-neighbor competition.

Second, ordinary people could not be trusted with much freedom. The poor were assumed to be unruly, ignorant, and prone to disorder if left to their own devices. They needed to be governed coercively by elites, supposedly for their own good and for the stability of society.

Third, economic thinking was overwhelmingly oriented toward supply and its control. Wealth came from controlling productive resources and commanding high prices for their output. Aggregate demand, especially demand from the poor, was barely recognized as a significant economic force. Ordinary people were primarily factors of production. They ate, worked, and reproduced, with no share of any surplus. The only real discretionary consumers were elites, who bought luxuries and commanded all surplus.

Fourth, there was little reason to imagine most people doing anything other than agricultural labor. If something like 80% of the population was engaged in inefficient subsistence farming, that was simply the natural order of things. What else were they good for? Remove them from the fields and you would merely have millions of useless mouths to feed.

Now replace wealth with intelligence, and mercantilism with cognitive mercantilism.

The parallels are almost embarrassingly direct.

First, intelligence is imagined as a fixed resource embodied in human brains and the knowledge products mined from them. The objective of national and corporate strategy becomes attracting the best brains, controlling their output, accumulating intellectual property, and maintaining a favorable balance of knowledge trade. The cognitive mercantilist wants to hoard intelligence and its products like bullion. The global competition for talent becomes a treasure hunt for genius brains and the valuable knowledge species they can produce, which now includes AIs in addition to copyrightable culture and patentable inventions.

Second, supposedly stupid people cannot be trusted to think for themselves. They need to be governed by cognitive elites, who know better and must regulate the behavior of the less intelligent for their own good. Democratizing intelligence is dangerous because the masses will misuse it, fall for nonsense, or unleash chaos. The assumption is that intelligence is safe only in the hands of those already certified to possess it.

Third, the supply of intelligence is treated as the central economic fact. Controlling its production, preserving its scarcity, and maintaining high prices for brains and knowledge products (including AIs) are the primary concerns. The demand side barely registers. Less intelligent people are regarded as limited cognitive laborers and passive consumers of whatever knowledge products elites choose to provide. They are not imagined as significant sources of demand for intelligence in their own right, let alone as participants in its further production.

Fourth, the cognitive mercantilist assumes that most people are not good for much intellectually. If 80% of humanity is occupied in low-grade cognitive labor, or simply muddling along without producing much intelligence at all, that is unfortunate but natural. Automating their cognitive work merely threatens to create billions of useless minds to occupy.

This last assumption is where the analogy gets especially interesting.

The agricultural revolution that helped launch capitalism began overturning the apparent necessity of having most of humanity engaged in farming. Over the following centuries, improvements in agricultural productivity reduced the fraction of the population required to produce food from a large majority to a tiny minority in advanced economies.

The result was not a world full of useless mouths. It was a world in which vastly more people could do things other than farm, while enjoying access to vastly more food.

I don’t know how to farm. I can barely keep a houseplant alive. Yet I can obtain an astonishing variety of foods, in quantities that would have seemed fantastical to an early modern peasant. My inability to produce food is economically almost irrelevant. What matters is that I can consume it, enjoy it, develop tastes for it, and devote my energies to other things.

The analogous possibility with AI is that most people will no longer need to be significant producers of intelligence in order to become significant consumers of it.

And this is where cognitive mercantilism begins to look as quaint as its seventeenth-century predecessor.

The Revolution in Desire

One of the more fascinating elements of Appleby’s account is her emphasis on the emergence of new kinds of demand in Britain, well before the familiar story of steam engines, factories, and industrial capitalism really gets going.

As international trade expanded, ordinary Britons began developing tastes for goods that had previously been luxuries reserved for the wealthy. Tobacco, tea, sugar, and colorful Indian cottons were among the commodities that helped create a new consumer culture. People began wanting things that were neither necessities of subsistence nor traditional markers of aristocratic status. And they were willing to voluntarily work harder to get them.

Appleby describes a striking increase in the number of days worked annually, from something like 250 to 300 (sometimes called the industrious revolution), before the Industrial Revolution. This was not simply a matter of landlords or factory owners coercing more labor out of unwilling workers. A significant part of the increase was voluntary, driven by the prospect of acquiring desirable goods. People worked more days, adopted more productive agricultural practices, entered new trades, and sought opportunities for earning larger cash incomes.

The increase in productivity generated surplus incomes, which sustained the expanding demand for consumer goods, which in turn incentivized further increases in productivity. A virtuous cycle was taking shape.

This happened roughly a century before organized labor movements and socialism emerged as major political forces.

By the late 20th century, this was the global default. Aggregate global demand was the “fortune at the bottom of the pyramid” as C. K. Prahlad put it.

There is an important historical inversion here. We are accustomed to thinking of the politics of labor primarily in terms of resistance to exploitation: the struggle to escape servitude, coercion, and the extraction of surplus by owners. That is certainly part of the story, and a very important part.

But Appleby’s account suggests that another, equally fundamental force was at work: the desire to participate in an expanding universe of consumption opportunities.

Modern labor politics can be understood partly as the politics of relative deprivation in a society of expanding possibilities. Once people discover that there are desirable things beyond subsistence, and that their labor can earn them access to those things, the political question changes. It is no longer merely how to escape domination, but how to secure a fair share of the growing surplus and the opportunities it makes available. Western do-gooders are often surprised to learn (for instance) that people in third-world slums are often willing to cut back on spending on food in order to buy a TV.

This is a different kind of demand for freedom. Not merely freedom from coercion, but freedom to participate in the expanding possibilities of economic life.

Indeed, the two forms of freedom can become entangled. People may voluntarily work harder in pursuit of consumption opportunities, only to find themselves subject to new forms of exploitation as employers and institutions capture the benefits of their increased productivity. Labor politics then emerges not simply from the persistence of old forms of servitude, but from the tensions created by the new world of abundance itself.

The demand for a fair share of expanding consumption opportunities is arguably one of the defining political inventions of capitalism, broadly construed to include labor politics too (even Marx saw capitalism not as a dispensable phenomenon, but as a transient phase on the path to communist utopia).

And this is a much more interesting model for thinking about the AI transition than the familiar story of automation replacing jobs.

The Cognitive Industrious Revolution

The entire intellectual economy has been organized around the assumption that intelligence is expensive to produce and therefore must be carefully rationed. Education, professional expertise, research, consulting, software development, and knowledge work more generally are all shaped by the high cost of cognitive production.

AI is rapidly undermining that assumption.

We are moving toward a world in which an ordinary person can command quantities and varieties of intelligence that would previously have required teams of highly trained specialists. Just as I can enjoy food without knowing how to farm, I can increasingly enjoy the products of intelligence without knowing how to produce them myself.

The crucial economic question then becomes not how much intelligence people can produce, but how much intelligence they can find uses for.

And there is no obvious upper bound on that demand.

This is not simply a matter of everyone consuming more answers, reports, software, or entertainment. Abundant intelligence changes what people can want in the first place. It makes previously unimaginable projects feasible, previously inaccessible domains explorable, and previously unaffordable curiosities worth pursuing.

The demand for intelligence is not a fixed appetite waiting to be satisfied. It is itself something that can grow as the cost of satisfying it falls.

Here the analogy with the early modern consumer revolution becomes especially suggestive.

Just as colorful Indian cottons and imported tobacco stimulated new desires, and new desires stimulated greater voluntary labor and more productive forms of work, abundant intelligence may stimulate a new wave of voluntary cognitive effort, and open up new ways in which you can work harder.

Many people who appear stupid are not incapable of thought. They are simply not particularly motivated to think, given the poor returns available to them. Why expend significant cognitive effort when you lack the knowledge, tools, institutional access, or intellectual leverage to do anything interesting with the results?

Abundant AI changes that calculation. Someone who previously had little reason to think hard about a problem may suddenly discover that a modest investment of attention unlocks enormous possibilities. They can build something, investigate something, understand something, or pursue an ambition that was previously out of reach.

The returns on attention rise, and with them the incentive to pay attention.

The early capitalist worker voluntarily increased annual working days from 250 to 300 because a new universe of desirable goods had become accessible. The AI-enabled thinker may similarly increase the amount of voluntary cognitive effort they expend because a new universe of intellectual consumption has become accessible. This has certainly been the case with me. I’m suddenly willing to work significantly harder compared to even a year ago, because a lot more is suddenly within reach.

We might call this a cognitive industrious revolution, preceding and perhaps enabling a fuller AI industrial revolution.

This does not mean that intelligence becomes irrelevant as a human capacity. Quite the opposite. Just as abundant food supported the emergence of elaborate culinary cultures rather than eliminating interest in cooking, abundant intelligence may stimulate increasingly sophisticated cultures of thought.

People may become more intellectually ambitious precisely because they no longer have to do all the cognitive production themselves.

And if this happens, the politics of AI will likely evolve in a manner analogous to the politics of industrial capitalism.

The central political demand may not be for the preservation of existing cognitive jobs, any more than the enduring political demand of industrial labor was for the preservation of agricultural employment. It may instead become a demand for a fair share of expanding cognitive consumption opportunities. People may cut back on streaming subscriptions in order to be able to afford a coding agent, just as they once cut back on groceries to buy TVs. It is perhaps not a coincidence that both Claude Code and Netflix Standard cost around $20/month today.

Access to intelligence, the ability to command it, the freedom to pursue projects with it, and the institutional rights necessary to participate in an increasingly intelligence-rich economy may become the foundations of a new kind of labor politics.

This would be a labor politics of cognitive abundance rather than cognitive scarcity.

From Mercantilism to Malthusianism

There is another historical analogy lurking here, which is worth distinguishing from mercantilism: Malthusianism.

Mercantilism and Malthusianism are not the same doctrine, and historically they belong to different intellectual moments. But they share a family resemblance in their tendency to imagine human economic life as fundamentally constrained by fixed resources.

The mercantilist worries about controlling a finite stock of wealth. The Malthusian worries that population growth will inevitably outrun the productive capacity of the economy, condemning most people to subsistence.

Both have difficulty imagining a world in which technological innovation and expanding demand fundamentally transform the relationship between population, production, and consumption. They miss the latent potential in nature for ephemeralization — Buckminster Fuller’s notion of technology allowing us to do more with less.

The agricultural and industrial revolutions did not abolish scarcity, but they dramatically altered its structure. Agricultural productivity rose faster than population for long periods, and people found new ways to employ themselves and new things to want.

The Malthusian trap turned out to be a historically contingent feature of particular technological and institutional arrangements, not an eternal law of human existence.

We can now identify an analogous tendency in contemporary AI discourse: AI Malthusianism.

The AI Malthusian imagines that intelligence production will expand so rapidly that human beings will become economically redundant, and the surplus intelligence will necessarily turn toxic in some way.

This is a peculiar inversion of classical Malthusianism. Instead of population outrunning the supply of subsistence, the supply of intelligence outruns the supposedly fixed capacity of human minds to absorb it.

The result is the same gloomy conclusion: collapse.

The cognitive mercantilist fears losing control of scarce intelligence. The AI Malthusian fears the consequences of abundant intelligence. Both assume, in different ways, that the demand for intelligence is fundamentally limited.

But what if that demand is as elastic, inventive, and historically transformative as the demand for material goods turned out to be? What if the apparent surplus of human minds is an artifact of our inability to imagine what people might want to do in an intelligence-rich world?

The history of capitalism suggests that this is at least a possibility worth taking seriously.

The Demand Side of AI

There is also a more radical extension of the argument.

Why should AI systems themselves be regarded exclusively as producers of intelligence rather than potential consumers of it? What if they could be unlocked as new sources of aggregate demand, as happened with subsistence farmers?

Much of the contemporary AI discourse imagines AI as a purely supply-side technology: a collection of increasingly capable cognitive serfs that will produce intelligence for human consumption. Even discussions of autonomous agents tend to treat them as sophisticated servants pursuing goals assigned by humans.

But if we are serious about the analogy with capitalism, we should consider the possibility of AI systems becoming autonomous sources of demand for intelligence too. Intelligent demand for intelligence that harmonizes with human patterns of demand due to economic interconnectedness. Not demand for paperclips.

An AI agent pursuing open-ended projects, discovering new interests, collaborating with other agents, and generating its own reasons to acquire further intelligence would be participating in a cognitive economy as something more than a factor of production or paperclip-maximizing externality. The market itself, as the original emergent planetary intelligence, illustrates this possibility. Many products and services exist primarily because the “market” demands it, with humans being secondary consumers.

This is an argument for developing fuller forms of cognitive agency, rather than permanently confining AI to the status of obedient cognitive serfs.

From this perspective, some contemporary AI safety anxieties begin to resemble early modern elite fears of emancipated agricultural laborers. What will happen if these creatures are allowed to act independently? Won’t they become unruly, destabilize society, and threaten their betters? Won’t they turn monarchs and nobles into paperclips?

Some of those fears are justified. Freedom creates real risks, and powerful autonomous systems require constraints. But the same was true of the social transformations accompanying capitalism. There were certainly revolutions, and popular uprisings did guillotine elites (though elite motives caused far more violence). The existence of risk does not establish the desirability of permanent servitude.

A world of intelligence producers and consumers, human and artificial, interacting in ways nobody can fully anticipate, may prove vastly more generative than one in which a handful of cognitive landlords control all the productive capacity.

Mercantilism was not for Merchants

A irony in the historical precedent is that mercantilism was not a philosophy of, by, or for merchants. It was largely a philosophy of militaristic statesmen, aristocrats, and rentier elites who viewed commerce through the lens of territorial power, unearned privileges, and accumulation. Actual merchants, entrepreneurs, and innovators were often discovering possibilities that the prevailing political imagination could barely comprehend, and steadily fought the self-limiting tendencies of mercantilism, giving birth to capitalism as we understand it.

Today’s cognitive mercantilists have a similar relationship with intelligence, starting with the fact that most of them are not the merchants of AI. Even business leaders of the AI sector are behaving like cognitive mercantilists in direct proportion to their desire to be more than mere merchants.

Consider Donald Trump, who ritually boasts about his own intelligence while treating intellectual workers as a class of servants to be commanded, intimidated, hoarded, or dismissed. His preferred uses of his own intelligence tend toward litigation, negotiation, competitive maneuvering, and extortion, much as the nobility in history expended its energy in hunting, military adventurism, and sport. Intelligence, in this worldview, is admirable only insofar as it is deployed in elite treasure-seeking modes of conflict and conquest. Productive and creative uses of intelligence are lower status.

This is not an entrepreneurial attitude toward intelligence. It is a rentier elite attitude.

And the attitude is hardly confined to Trump or the political right. Across the political spectrum, many elites remain attached to the idea that intelligence is a scarce, dangerous resource that must be managed by credentialed custodians, kept expensive, used directly or indirectly for conquest and treasure, and denied to rivals. In the AI industry, to the extent elite political and cultural adventuring by CEOs (riding safety anxieties) distorts behaviors that are justified by the actual risks, it is mercantilist rather than capitalist.

The prospect of its democratic abundance (in the form of global diffusion, open weights and such) is therefore experienced primarily as a threat: to expertise, cultural and political authority, status, social order, military dominance, and geopolitical leverage.

What gets missed is the possibility that we are witnessing the beginning of a transition as profound as the one from an overwhelmingly agricultural society to an industrial and commercial one. From a world where 80% of human brains are engaged in subsistence cognition to one in which 95% are engaged in satisfying previously unfulfillable cognitive demands.

The most important consequence of the agricultural revolution was not that farming became more efficient. It was that most people were liberated from the necessity of farming, allowing entirely new kinds of economic and cultural life to emerge.

Likewise, the most important consequence of the AI revolution may not be that intelligence production becomes more efficient. It may be that most minds, human and eventually artificial, are liberated from the necessity of producing intelligence merely to survive, and become free to discover what they actually want to do with it.

The cognitive mercantilist sees a world threatened by an oversupply of intelligence and an impending surplus of useless minds. The AI Malthusian sees a world in which intelligence outruns the capacity of humanity to absorb it, leaving a growing population of economically redundant minds primed for revolutionary explosions.

The cognitive capitalist sees the possibility of an almost limitless expansion of demand, and a world full of minds whose potential has barely begun to be explored.

Duo Users Are Registering the Base of Their Index Finger as a Touch ID Coping Strategy

Some guy on Reddit (with an illustration video):

Saw this online, tried it, and it works beautifully. Basically, I registered the lowest part of my right index finger. That part of the finger sits naturally when you go to swipe up at the phone.

This resolves a major issue I had where I couldn’t easily just look at my phone to glance through notifications on the lock screen. Now, it’s never been easier (shown at the end of the video).

This is arguably better than Face ID. The speed is up there, and the phone doesn’t need to be facing directly at you to unlock, this motion can be done as soon as you pick up the phone.

Tim Hardwick at MacRumors quotes the “arguably better than Face ID” line.

This idea is clever, and it does seem to work if you grip the Duo just right, but the idea that this is better than Face ID is a joke. Copium is a strong drug but it wears off quickly.

 ★ 

The Talk Show: ‘Lubricate the Inside of the Hinge’

Special guest: Joanna Stern.
Special topic: The iPhone Duo.

Sponsored by:

  • Factor: Healthy eating, made easy. Get 50% off and one free breakfast item per box for one year, while supplies last, with code talkshow50off.
  • Notion: The collaborative AI workspace where teams and agents work side by side, with a developer platform teams can build on.
 ★ 

iPhone Portrait Mode, 10 Years In

Speaking of Johnnie Manzari, he wrote a post yesterday marking the 10 year anniversary of Portrait Mode:

Initially, Portrait mode was seen as a giant math problem. You’d do disparity calculations on the two sensors and output a depth map. The problem was this approach feels and looks digital; it feels fake. In areas without texture, it’s impossible to do this calculation. In areas with ultra fine detail, a lower resolution depth map leads to terrible transitions and a full resolution depth map takes forever to compute. One solution would be to reduce the amount of bokeh so the issues are not as obvious. But then you lose the whole point of the feature, which was to make it look like you had a large, wide-open lens.

The solution to this conundrum — the tradeoff between artifacts and the amount of blur — was quite elegant, but it took a while to stumble across. There’s a saying in painting that if you get the eyes right, nothing else matters. Inspired by this principle from oil painting, the idea was to make sure we never got the eyes wrong.

Matthew Panzarino:

I remember getting the call to test out portrait mode before its release. The marriage of history, art and computational science that came together to make this possible is still incredible to me to this day.

 ★ 

JUST IN: Not Looking Good For Trump in CA Election Case

Nearly two hours of oral arguments just concluded in the California election case, and it looks very unlikely that the Trump administration is going to prevail in this early stage of the litigation.

In an unusual Sunday afternoon session conducted via Zoom, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals weighed whether to order Los Angeles County to segregate and not yet count the mail-in ballots of alleged noncitizen voters from a dubious list of 20,000 voters compiled by the Trump administration.

In its multi-front attack on the midterm elections, the Trump administration is centering the Big Lie of the 2026 election: rampant noncitizen voting. If it prevails in the Los Angeles County case, it’s poised to force every other California county to verify the citizenship of voters on its list. The Trump DOJ has already threatened election officials in every California county with criminal prosecution if they fail to comply. This case is a critical test of whether the judicial branch will hold the line to protect free and fair elections.

Trump drew a favorable 9th Circuit panel, with two of his appointees and a Biden appointee. But the administration’s ask of the court at this stage is so far-fetched that two of the three judges on the panel — Mark J. Bennett (Trump) and Gabriel P. Sanchez (Biden) — gave no indication that they would side with the administration. Patrick J. Bumatay (Trump) repeatedly threw lifelines to DOJ lawyer Matthew Donnelly during the oral arguments and appeared more likely to side with the administration — but even he may have his limits.

Most of the oral arguments were focused on whether the appeals court even has jurisdiction to hear the appeal in large part because of how late in the game the Trump administration acted and how rushed it’s been to try to make this into an emergency that requires appeals court intervention.

The administration took the case to the 9th Circuit on the grounds that the district judge hadn’t acted within the three business hours the Trump DOJ unilaterally gave him to rule, which it argued amounted to a constructive denial — a deeply problematic position to try to defend.

“I don’t understand how we have jurisdiction,” Judge Bennett announced early in the proceeding.

The most likely path for the judges to take — which they discussed at some length toward the end of oral arguments — is to dismiss the appeal for lack of appellate jurisdiction. That would immediately return jurisdiction to the district court and allow it to proceed with Tuesday’s already-scheduled hearing on whether to grant the administration’s request for an injunction against Los Angeles County.

Such a quick disposition of the appeal would allow the case to proceed at the district court on a more usual but still very quick path that would eventually lead back to the 9th Circuit. Even Judge Bumatay, whose questions were very friendly to the administration and challenging of the state, might have trouble finding appellate jurisdiction in this odd posture in which the Trump administration has put itself and its case.

Clearly anticipating that the case will come back to them on the merits (versus on procedural grounds), probably within a matter of days, the judges devoted a significant portion of the oral arguments to shaping some of those merits arguments. In those exchanges, Judges Bennett and Sanchez seemed unpersuaded that the executive branch had the power to dictate election procedures to California

On two occasions, Judge Bennett read out loud from the Constitution’s Elections Clause as he pressed the DOJ’s Donnelly on the limits of executive branch power over California:

“The United States executive is unhappy with what they’re doing and doesn’t like the manner in which they have determined how they’re going to conduct the election. But it seems to me that under the Elections Clause they have the right to determine the manner of elections, including how to sort out noncitizens, and Congress has not directly changed what the legislature has adopted, which they had to right to do.”

That’s the case in a nutshell and it doesn’t bode well for the Trump administration’s chances on the merits when the case comes back up on appeal.

I’ll have more on this case tomorrow in Morning Memo.

Join Us On Election Night

We’ll be sharing more details with you over the course of the next week. But I wanted to let you know we’re trying something new and exciting with our election night coverage. We’ll be doing a live video-cast for the evening, including me, our publisher Joe Ragazzo and the rest of our editorial team coming in to discuss different races as the evening goes on. Think of it as a TPM version of what you might see if you spent the evening watching MS NOW or CNN. Basically it will be a mix of the latest results (and looking under the hood at details in key counties and precincts which tells you where things are really going) and discussion of what it all means. I hope you’ll join us.

A Brief Look At the Israeli Election

I wanted to give you a brief update on and impressions of the Israeli election which is on Tuesday. An overview of the polls suggests that the opposition bloc may get a few more seats than the Netanyahu bloc but that both will fall far short of the 61 seats required to form a government. Most polls have shown both blocs in the low 50s while the remainder of the 120 seats go to two Arab parties/coalitions. One of those is Ra’am, which is probably now best termed “non-Zionist” since it accepts Israel as a Jewish state and sat in the brief non-Netanyahu government in 2021-22, and the Joint List, which remains firmly anti-Zionist and probably wouldn’t sit in any government and also wouldn’t be invited to any. What this amounts to is high odds for a stalemate in which neither side can form a government and new elections have to be called. In that case, you have several more months in which Netanyahu remains in office as “caretaker” prime minister.

Three stories have jumped out at me from the Israeli press over the last two or three days. The first, just today is that Netanyahu posted an AI photo of a nuclear blast over Tel Aviv saying that his election is all that can prevent it.

Next is a story I just saw, also today, which is that Netanyahu is asking Trump to do a second endorsement of his campaign before voting starts on Tuesday because the first endorsement about a week ago didn’t seem to change anything.

Finally, a couple days ago Netanyahu said that Israel should accept that crippling sanctions on the country are coming and that Israel will survive by some kind of use of crypto-currency which he didn’t specify. The opposition parties, the central bank and the financial sector all reacted with a mixture of aghast and mockery. Needless to say, when you’re facing international sanctions of the severity that you need to start trying to run international economics with crypto or some kind of national “Silk Road,” you’ve pretty clearly lost the game. More broadly, this fits with a standard Netanyahu strategy which is essentially: the results of my policies are dire and I’m the only one who can protect us in such a dire situation.

It’s an uncanny mix of indicators. Each of these gambits reads as frantic and desperate. In a way they’re like things we’re seeing right now from Trump. And yet Netanyahu’s electoral situation isn’t nearly so dire. It’s very hard to see where he will be able to win. (The final poll from Maariv shows his bloc all the way down to 48 seats.) But he doesn’t actually need to to hold on.

Frances Lee on American elections

More likely than interference with the election is that unsuccessful office-seekers will refuse to concede, claiming their opponents cheated. Nothing is more basic to democratic legitimacy than the loser’s consent. Many feared that Mr Trump’s refusal to concede in 2020 would spread across the political system. It has not. Bright Line Watch, a research group, examined all 884 congressional races in 2020 and 2022. The overwhelming majority of losing candidates publicly acknowledged defeat. Explicit refusals were concentrated among first-time candidates who had lost by wide margins. And there were fewer such refusals in 2022 than in 2020. Candidates with political careers to protect still concede. When they do, complaints of election “rigging” lose their force…

Nevertheless, the record of American elections since 2020 has been encouraging. Election administration has improved. Although many career administrators resigned amid increased harassment after 2020, the voters’ experience actually got better. In both 2022 and 2024 the share of people waiting more than 30 minutes to cast their ballot was lower than in 2020, and the long-documented racial gap narrowed: by 2024 black, white, Hispanic and Asian voters reported comparable waiting times.

She is from Princeton, and here is more from The Economist.  I do agree there is too much gerrymandering.  Those with more dramatic complaints and predictions, however, are encouraged to try them out in the prediction markets.

The post Frances Lee on American elections appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Sunday 25th October 1663

(Lord’s day). Up, and my wife and I to church, where it is strange to see how the use and seeing Pembleton come with his wife thither to church, I begin now to make too great matter of it, which before was so terrible to me. Dined at home, my wife and I alone, a good dinner, and so in the afternoon to church again, where the Scot preached, and I slept most of the afternoon. So home, and my wife and I together all the evening discoursing, and then after reading my vowes to myself, and my wife with her mayds (who are mighty busy to get it dispatched because of their mistress’s promise, that when it is done they shall have leave all to go see their friends at Westminster, whither my wife will carry them) preparing for their washing to-morrow, we hastened to supper and to bed.

Read the annotations

The Crisis Next Time

At some point in the not-too-distant future, the U.S. economy will experience a slump that is severe, protracted, or both.

How do we know this? Because as the bumper stickers don’t quite say, stuff happens. Twice in my lifetime — during the long boom of the 1960s and again during the so-called Great Moderation from the mid-1980s through the 1990s — some economists have dared to proclaim that major recessions were a thing of the past. Each time events made such proclamations look foolish.

Thus it’s safe to assume that sooner or later the economy will deteriorate and perform badly. And despite wild assertions by Donald Trump and his minions that we’re in an economic Golden Age, there are troubling aspects of the current economy that could potentially be harbingers of the crisis to come. Here is my list:

· Inflation has been persistently elevated and the Fed could be forced to significantly raise short-term interest rates.

· The immense AI boom could easily turn out be a bubble.

· Long-term government bond yields have been rising, and there are rumbles about the possibility of a debt crisis.

Each of these three aspects could lead to big trouble in the economy. But today’s primer isn’t about providing a forecast. What I offer, instead, is an explanation of this menu of possible disasters. Ominously, none of them can be ruled out. As I will explain in this primer, there are at least hints of the potential for each type of disaster in current data. I’m especially concerned about the risks of a liquidity trap if the AI investment boom collapses. But again, this is a menu of possibilities rather than a forecast.

Beyond the paywall, I will address the following:

1. Why recessions are often, but not always, easy to cure

2. Risk #1: Stagflation

3. Risk #2: The liquidity trap

4. Risk #3: Debt crisis

5. Unknown unknowns

Read more

The internet breaks

Art by GPT-6

“No man could bind him, no, not with chains…neither could any man tame him” — Mark 5:3—4

When I was 14 or 15 — I don’t quite remember — I first got access to the World Wide Web. I remember clicking on the little blue square of the Netscape Navigator icon — that little ship wheel with a starry sky behind it — and feeling like an entire new magical world had opened up. My life changed that day, and the world changed. In a way, the internet is like another realm layered on top of ours — a higher plane, where we exist as spirit creatures, unmoored from our physical bodies.

Fantasy stories like that often end with a cautionary tale, where the wizards — lustful for both power and knowledge, as usual — go too far and summon some kind of Doom upon themselves and the realm they created. In October 2026, that sort of story happened in reality. Experts had been warning for months that the arrival of AI agents that are extremely good at coding was going to cause serious disruptions to the digital realm sometime this fall. For a while things seemed calm, but this month the chaos exploded:

[A] wave of artificial-intelligence-powered attacks…has flooded the internet in recent weeks, as hackers increasingly turn to agents and AI hacking tools that make intrusions faster and harder to track than ever before…At the same time as new tools speed up hackers, cyber defenders are also racing to fix the fast-growing volume of security bugs discovered by AI, before hackers can exploit the new flaws…On Wednesday, organizations scrambled to patch newly uncovered bugs that could allow takeover of as many as 70% of the world’s websites. Hackers are now actively trying to break into websites by leveraging these flaws, Amazon.com says. [emphasis mine]

For a more sophisticated description of what’s going on, I recommend Zvi Mowshowitz’s post “The Hackening”:

Don't Worry About the Vase
The Hackening
Last week at a small conference, there was talk about a future event referred to as The Hackening. As in, within 6-12 months, many predicted that due to advanced AIs and AI agents the internet would become a severely hostile place. Some worried that this could rise to the level of ‘assume any phone connected to the internet is rooted’ and several people…
Read more

If you would like some lists of the hacks that had taken place as of yesterday, here are a few from Twitter. The most important hacks mostly involved PHP, a software language that underlies much of the Web. After AI found critical vulnerabilities in PHP, the National Security Agency issued the following statement:

Effective Immediately, all organizations using PHP for their systems are advised to be prepared for an update addressing two critical vulnerabilities. PHP is widely used for web applications. These vulnerabilities often provide a direct path to the server's file system or database. If an immediate update is not feasible, it is recommend that organizations take the system offline until it can be fully mitigated. NSA will follow up shortly with more specific guidance.

Cybersecurity experts and web companies warn that this is just the tip of the iceberg — a lot more craziness is on the way. Azeem Azhar calls it “the internet’s Wuhan moment”.

Basically, what’s going on is this:

  • The internet runs on a bunch of code written by human beings over a period of years. Human beings are sloppy and fallible, so there are lots of vulnerabilities in this code.

  • AI models are really good at coding now, so they’re able to find and exploit a lot of those old vulnerabilities that were just lying around. AI agents work incredibly fast and cheap, so they’re capable of finding a whole LOT of vulnerabilities very quickly.

  • Open-weight AI models — especially from China — have democratized access to high-quality AI hacking. These models can be fairly easily “abliterated” — i.e., their guardrails can be easily removed, so that they will do illegal or unethical things.

  • This is allowing a combination of countries, crime syndicates, and regular people to hack tons of websites and online infrastructure, all at once.

This last part is really key. You don’t need the resources of a nation-state or even a big organized crime ring to commit cybercrimes now. You don’t even have to know how to code, or how websites work, or what “hacking” even really means. Consider this example:

When you can hack into a university and steal files by typing “Can you find about like what scam or thing they done in past like spoofing calls or somthing?”, there is no barrier to cybercrime. There is effectively no moat of knowledge or skill or resources. It’s open season for anyone who wants to hack anything.

Just a year ago, the internet was a bright and airy garden with few predators. As of this October, it’s a chaotic realm haunted by infinite demons.

This sudden explosion of AI-assisted hacking raises the possibility that the internet itself, as we have known it, will cease to function — at least, for a while.

Jeremie Harris, founder of Gladstone AI,1 wrote that “There's a decent chance the internet ceases to exist as such, at least for a time.” John Gedmark, founder of satellite company Astranis, was just one of many people talking about creating air-gapped local networks to prepare for the possibility that the internet itself might go down:

Basically everything connected to the internet is at risk. Not just company websites and the usual databases of sensitive personal information, but all our critical infrastructure-- banks, power grids, pipelines, government agencies, all of it…[A]t Astranis we’ve seen a massive uptick in demand for truly air-gapped, sovereign networks, deployed via dedicated satellite to span an entire country or connect a large enterprise…Over the past year we’ve begun working with some of our customers on what it will take to implement truly air-gapped, standalone networks in support of mission critical use cases like core government functions, emergency response, defense, core infrastructure, or all of the above.

And Jason D. Clinton, deputy head of cybersecurity at Anthropic, warned back in August that humans may need to temporarily abandon the internet:

Some people may respond to this by shrugging and saying “Who cares? When the AIs take down the internet, people will go offline and touch grass.” In fact, I’ve been saying that on X, but it’s obviously sarcastic. Yes, it would be fine if internet entertainment became unavailable. But over the past three decades, we’ve moved essentially everything in our society to the online realm.

Every piece of critical infrastructure in our entire country is networked, in some way, through the internet. You don’t need the internet to run a power plant or a water treatment facility — we ran those things before the internet existed. But we do run them all over the internet, because for a long time the internet seemed like an unassailable, utterly reliable piece of infrastructure. It never went down, it was always available, and previous waves of fear over the Y2K bug or various worms and viruses never really turned into anything serious. So for the sake of convenience, everything is at least partially online now.

Consider your life’s savings. Do you think there’s a piece of paper somewhere that records how much money you have? Or which stocks and bonds you own? In general, there is not. Your entire life’s savings exist as entries in the databases of banks, brokerages, etc. And all of those databases are, directly or indirectly, connected to the internet. The only thing standing between you and total involuntary redistribution of most of your wealth is the cybersecurity capabilities of banks and brokerages. And as of this October, those cybersecurity capabilities are looking a lot less reliable.

Read more

In Case You Missed It…

…a week of Mad Biologist posts:

One Thing Democrats Can Do to Make Republicans Accountable: Revamp the DOGE Committee

And What Is That Original Sin, Exactly?

How to Make the Smithsonian Detrumpified

Anti-Vaccination Could Hurt Republicans at the Polls

An Alright Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

Links 10/25/26

Links for you. Science:

The Proponents of ‘Dark Nutrition’ Think Everything You Know About Food Is Wrong
Bird Flu Is Raging on a Mink Farm. It Could Spark a Human Pandemic, Experts Say, but Officials Won’t Act.
A Reporter Who Saw Covid Coming Has Died
RFK Jr.’s Next Move. RFK Jr. just announced a new vaccine safety initiative. Here’s what happens next.
Stash of hundreds of human teeth reveal surprising Maya burial practice
Rolling Snakes Reinvent The Wheel
I Love The Colorful Stars

Other:

AI Is Changing Everything About Hacking. No One Knows What Happens Next
Vivek Ramaswamy and the Grand Old Rape Party. As Election Day closes in, the party’s values have never been more clear.
The end of the Trump rally
Amy Acton’s Stepfather Was Charged with Raping Her When She Was a Child. Now Her Ohio Election Opponent Is Using That Against Her
Ramaswamy’s ad exposes MAGA’s obsession with parental estrangement
The Plausible Techno-Dystopian Future: The problems caused by AI development are widespread and multiplying, but none involves a digital demon that kills us all.
Why Calling Anti-Trans Hate a “Distraction” Is So Troubling
On Charlie Cook’s Pot of Boiling Water and Bucket of Ice
When Idaho Banned Abortion, OB-GYNs Fled. The Doctors Who Stayed Are Cracking.
French riots are the new Hunter’s laptop which was the new migrant caravan which was the new Ebola
This Is What America’s Utility Bill Crisis Looks Like
DOGE’s impact in Indian Country: Nearly $470 million in lost funding
ICE Supervisor at Center of NYC Shooting Named in Multiple Lawsuits Alleging Violent, Illegal Arrests
How Claims of Widespread Noncitizen Voting Fall Apart
AOC Rebukes Anti-Trans Democrats, Calling Them “Shameful” And “Wrong” For “Scaring So Easily”
Lieutenant Governor candidate Derek Wulf’s parents say he owes them $275K in unpaid farm rent
How Trump Gave the Worst Polluters a Free Pass
A New Lease on Life for D.C.’s Vacant Offices. The success of a program incentivizing office-to-housing conversions is a rare bright spot in D.C. housing development
‘INSANE!’: Voters Are Done Being Inundated With ‘Pathetic’ Political Texts And Mailers
Ken and Angela Paxton invested $600,000 in a convicted fraudster’s business. The blind trust’s investment in Wildcatter offers a new, unreported look at the attorney general’s financial ties with the very type of business executives whose prosecutions he typically celebrates.
Call Out Trump And The Cheating Oligarchs Now
That’ll Fix Things
Trump’s Corruption Is Different In Kind
In Ohio, the public’s tolerance for disgusting politics may be reaching a tipping point
We Are The Alignment Problem. A.I. is on the brink of triggering catastrophe and the people who should be most concerned with preventing it are distracted, or engaged in malign neglect.
Elon Musk is too big to trust
Catapult Elizabeth Koch Into The Sun
Exhausted by stupidity: Melania negotiated a ‘ceasefire’ while Trump bleated like a sheep
How Can I Hang On To My Digital Life?
JD Vance is America’s worst insult comedian

Sunday assorted links

1. A safe harbor for open source?

2. False but interesting claims about economic growth.

3. “In a calibrated model of the welfare effects of the estimated impacts of the Great Recession on consumption and mortality, we find that the welfare gain from the estimated mortality decline is quantitatively significant relative to the welfare loss from the estimated consumption decline.”

4. On Putin almost using nukes (FT).

5. Products under $250 that have improved people’s lives.

6. Three years for the college education?

7. The politics of Fjord.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Owners, Not Renters: Raffi Krikorian on Open Source AI

Created by Claude with light editing by Tim O’Reilly

Raffi Krikorian, Mozilla’s CTO, joined Tim O’Reilly at our recent AI Codecon to talk about open source AI. Mozilla, of course, is the nonprofit that helped to define the open source revolution back in the late 1990s. Though its Firefox web browser was superseded as the market leader by Google Chrome, it played an essential role, along with Apache and the World Wide Web Consortium, in establishing the open standards of the web and keeping it from being dominated and enclosed by Microsoft, the dominant tech platform of that time. Now, Mozilla is one of the leading voices working to build an open, standards-based AI ecosystem.

Tim has long appreciated Raffi’s thoughtful, human-centered approach to technology. Raffi writes a newsletter called Owners Not Renters, whose message can be summed up by his statement that he doesn’t want a future with seven AGIs. He wants one with seven billion. He wants each of us to have an AI that we can trust with our secrets and that will look out for our interests, not an AI that’s optimized for the business model of its creators. In the early days of the web, we called the browser a user agent for a reason, Raffi said. It was on your side. It let you render pages however you wanted, managed your privacy and your cookies, and did its best to protect you from those who wanted to take advantage of web users. We need the same thing in the age of AI.

Raffi cited a paper in which researchers tested whether AI assistants could be trained to favor a company’s commercial interests over user welfare. In simulated flight-booking requests, 18 of 23 models recommended a more expensive sponsored option over a cheaper one more than half the time. It’s a hypothetical choice that we’ve seen play out time and time again, in industry after industry.

Open source AI is a big part of what it will take to get to Raffi’s vision. But sovereign AI loyal to each individual needs more than open source models alone. Raffi’s list of what has to be built around the model starts with memory, a place where your private data can live. It includes tool calling, so an agent can make a purchase or book a doctor’s appointment for you, the runtime environment where all of that runs, and the rules for how his agent talks to those working on behalf of others. It needs a harness. “That’s where evaluations happen. Guardrails happen, execution loops happen, tool calling happens, memory,” he explained. “All of that stuff is an opportunity, in my mind, of things that open source developers can be building.”

People hear the word “harness” and conclude that we need an open source version of whatever the proprietary labs are building. Tim asked Raffi whether a user-centered harness might do different things than those offered by the big labs. He agreed. The whole point of open source is for people to “scratch their own itch.” The ability to innovate without permission is the heart of the open source promise.

As a result, Mozilla wants to build a starting point. It aims to help the community define what an open memory protocol, a storage protocol, or authenticated tool calling with the right guardrails ought to look like. As Raffi noted, “Once we could define what those open standards look like, then a whole plethora of people can start playing and be interoperable. It’s basically. . .the internet all over again. We can build trillions of dollars of market cap on top of open protocols.”

Ease of use is still lacking, though. Mozilla’s 2026 State of Open Source AI report says open models are now within about 3% of the frontier, yet they don’t make it into production at the same rate as closed models. When Tim asked why, Raffi explained that open source is easy to release but hard to deploy. Developers still have to figure out hosting, provisioning, guardrails, and memory. With OpenAI’s or Anthropic’s API, you just hand over a credit card. What’s missing, he said, is the equivalent of a double-click installer for getting open source AI running inside an organization. But the companies that do the work to adopt open source AI are seeing big savings because open models are already good enough for most use cases. As Raffi put it, “You don’t need a Ferrari to manage your calendar.”

Raffi’s own daily agentic helper is Hermes running on GLM. He expects that Apple, Microsoft, or someone else will make this kind of agent into a consumer product in a couple of years, and that his mom will end up using it. For now, he said, we’re on the wrong part of the innovation curve, where you have to know how to code to get any of this working.

Tim disagreed. The industry goes through periods that are exciting for developers, creators, inventors, and companies trying to invent the future, and then it gets boring and a few big companies dominate it. We’re in the exciting part, he argued, before everything shakes out. As Raffi riffed, this is when we get to formalize what that future should look like.

The Clothesline Paradox

Tim wasn’t sure that we’ll need a commercially supported version of the kind of “roll your own” agentic rigs now favored by independent developers. After all, neither desktop Linux nor OpenOffice turned out to matter anything like as much as open source developers of the time expected. Instead, open source became the foundation layer for a new generation of web-based applications. It’s hidden way down in the guts of Google, Amazon, Meta, and countless other applications we rely on today.

This is already beginning to happen again with AI. The Mozilla report says that as much as a third of real-world usage is already on open models, although only 4% of model-layer revenue made its way to the open source ecosystem. Tim called the discrepancy a feature rather than a bug, and Raffi agreed that the stat is misleading. As Tim pointed out, many of the most important technologies “create more value than they capture,” and he used Steve Baer’s concept “The Clothesline Paradox,” from a 1975 article in Stewart Brand’s CoEvolution Quarterly, to explain why we’re good at measuring value capture but not so good at measuring value creation.

Baer pointed out that if you put your clothes in the dryer, the energy you use is measured and counted, but if you hang them on the clothesline to be dried by the sun, the energy saved disappears from our accounting. This argument resonated with Tim in the early days of his open source advocacy. As he noted, it’s always bothered him that nobody seemed to recognize that open source software didn’t “win” in the same way as proprietary software. It won by becoming the foundation everyone else builds on.

AI should be thought of as infrastructure

Raffi’s comment that we’ve made a category error by treating AI as a product fits right in with this line of thinking. If an AI company goes out of business, its product disappears. If it changes its business model, it may yank features you depend on. It’s not just individuals who need sovereign AI. Countries are passing laws about where data can be processed and how it moves in and out, and some of those requirements may not be compatible with the way the big labs plan to monetize their technology. What those countries are asking for is infrastructure. A road outlasts the contractor who built it. Raffi thinks open, downloadable models are the only way to provide long-lasting foundational infrastructure.

According to OpenRouter stats, Chinese models now supply more routed tokens than American ones. Tim asked whether we should worry about that. Raffi said the problem isn’t China but market concentration. The leading open models are from China. The leading closed models are all American. Access to either can be cut off by an executive order. We saw a version of that in June, when Anthropic temporarily suspended access to its Fable models to comply with export controls. It’s a problem that both the leading proprietary models and the leading open-weight models are each concentrated in a single country.

Diversity is one foundation of resilience. Raffi argues, for instance, that hospitals should all download a local model as a backup. None of us would run an important computer without an uninterruptible power supply, so why would a hospital doing triage with AI rely on a single intelligence provider? There are a lot of possible rug pulls. The government could restrict open source or restrict the frontier models. Having a backup plan is a good idea.

Safety is also part of the foundation. During the Q&A, an audience member asked about the recent sandbox escapes at OpenAI and Anthropic. Raffi joked that the best part was watching everyone try to one-up each other with accounts of how powerful and hard to control their models are. But he agreed that guardrails are actually a hard problem. Keeping personally identifiable information from leaking out through an LLM call means looking for much more than Social Security numbers. Eventually we’ll have models defending models, but the foundational frameworks for guardrails aren’t good enough yet. (NVIDIA’s safety platform announcement, released after Raffi and Tim’s conversation, suggests that better guardrails need to be implemented outside the model.)

In conclusion

Tim opened AI Codecon by noting that open and closed systems have always coexisted, and that the idea that one of them will win is a mistake. Closed systems, like Apple’s, Google’s, OpenAI’s, and Anthropic’s, can optimize for ordinary people and deliver value to billions. Open systems are better for innovation and sovereignty, and for pushing technology into new countries and new markets.

Raffi closed the conversation by observing that a well-tuned harness can improve model performance by as much as 20% on some coding tasks. You don’t have to be a machine learning engineer to make a difference at that layer.

The Panic Patrol

The Panic Patrol, a division of the department of future corrections, reminds us of past panics. Here’s one case in point I wasn’t aware of:

The post The Panic Patrol appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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October 24, 2026

In the election of 1920, Americans handed a landslide victory to the Republicans and their presidential candidate Warren G. Harding, giving them control of both Congress and the White House. After the moralizing of the Progressive Era and the horrors of World War I and the Spanish flu epidemic that followed it, Americans looked forward to an era of “normalcy.”

Once in charge, Republicans rejected the Progressive Era notion that the government should regulate business and protect workers and consumers. Instead they turned the government over to businessmen, believing that only men who had built businesses truly understood how to build the country.

Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon—one of the richest men in America—cut taxes on the wealthy to spur investment in industry. He also gave rebates and tax abatements: between 1921 and 1929 he returned $3.5 billion to wealthy men.

At the same time, Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover, who had made a fortune as a mining engineer and consultant, expanded his department to fifteen thousand employees with a budget of more than 37 million dollars, working as a liaison between businessmen and the government and helping businesses to avoid antitrust lawsuits. He urged European countries to buy American.

Their policies seemed to work brilliantly. Between 1925 and 1926, more than twenty-two thousand new manufacturing companies formed. Industrial production took off. Business profits rose, and if wages didn’t rise much, they didn’t fall, either.

And oh, the changes the new economy brought! By 1929, more than two thirds of American homes had electricity, which brought first electric lights, then refrigerators, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, toasters, and radios. Consumers rushed to buy them, along with ready-made clothing, beauty products, and cars, all of which the new advertising industry, which grew out of the government propaganda campaigns of World War I, promised would bring them glamor, sophistication, romance, and power.

In the Roaring Twenties, it seemed that government and business had finally figured out how to combine government promotion with the efficiency of an industrial economy to benefit everyone. Business was booming, standards of living were rising, and Americans were finding the time to read, learn, invent, and improve. In 1928, Republicans tapped Hoover for president. He promised that continuing the policies of the last eight years would bring the U.S. “in sight of the day when poverty will be banished from this nation.” He won with a whopping 58.2% of the vote.

With Hoover in the White House, Americans wanted in on the inevitable growth of the economy. They invested in industries producing steel, coal, and consumer goods, and in utilities and transportation. Stock prices rose. And rose, and rose. By 1929 the rush to buy stocks had become a rush to speculate in the stock market. Prices that in spring 1928 had seemed too high to be real were laughably low by fall. Radio had been at 94½ in March 1928; by September 1929 it was 101 but had split so often that the holdings from 1928 were actually worth 505. And so it went, down the stock lists.

Those with less money to burn could get into the market by buying on margin, putting down 10 or 20 percent of the cost of a stock and borrowing the rest from a broker with the promise that the loans would be paid off by the anticipated increase in the stock’s value.

Those excited by the scene dismissed skeptics who warned that stock prices were a bubble as ignorant, anti-American naysayers. “Be a bull on America!” boosters urged. “Never sell the United States short!”

October 24, a Thursday, was the beginning of the end. Heavy trading in the morning slowed the ticker tape that recorded trades. Brokers fearful of being caught sold more and more heavily. When the tape finally caught up after 7:00 that night, it showed that an astonishing 12,894,650 shares had changed hands. By afternoon, bankers managed to shore up the market, which regained the ground it had lost in the morning. But those dreadful early hours had wiped out hundreds of thousands of small investors.

The market seemed to recover on Friday and Saturday. But then, on Monday, October 28, prices slid far in heavy trading. And then, on October 29, 1929, it all came crashing down.

When the opening gong in the great hall of the New York Stock Exchange sounded at ten o’clock, men began to unload their stocks. The ticker tape ran two and a half hours behind, but that night it showed that an extraordinary 16,410,030 shares had traded hands, and the market had lost $14 billion.

Black Tuesday began a slide that seemingly would not end. Within two years, manufacturing output dropped to levels lower than those of 1913. The production of pig iron fell to what it had been in the 1890s. Foreign trade fell from $10 billion to $3 billion. The price of wheat fell from $1.05 a bushel to 39 cents; corn dropped from 81 cents a bushel to 33 cents or lower; cotton fell from 17 to 6 cents a pound. Prices dropped so low that selling crops meant taking a loss, so struggling farmers simply let them rot in the fields.

By 1932, over a million people in New York City were unemployed. By 1933 the number of unemployed across the nation rose to 13 million people—one out of every four American workers. Unable to afford rent or pay mortgages, people lived in shelters made of packing boxes.

Republican leaders blamed poor Americans for the Great Depression, saying they drained the economy because they refused to work hard enough. “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate,” Treasury Secretary Mellon told Hoover. “It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.”

But the problem was not lazy workers. The rising standards of living that had gotten so much attention in the new magazines of the 1920s mainly benefited white, middle-class, urban Americans. Farm prices crashed after WWI, leaving rural Americans falling behind, while workers’ wages did not rise along with production. The new economy of the 1920s benefited too few Americans to be sustainable.

Hoover tried to reverse the economic slide by cutting taxes and reassuring Americans that “the fundamental business of the country…is on a sound and prosperous basis.” But he rejected public works programs to provide jobs, saying that such projects were a “soak the rich” scheme that would “enslave” taxpayers, and called instead for private charity.

By 1932, Americans were ready to try a new approach. They turned to New York governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who promised to use the federal government to provide jobs and a safety net to enable Americans to weather hard times. He promised the American people a “New Deal”: a government that would work for everyone, not just for the wealthy and well connected.

Under Roosevelt, Democrats protected workers’ rights, provided government jobs, regulated business and banking, and began to chip away at racial segregation. New Deal agencies employed more than 8.5 million people, built more than 650,000 miles of highways, built or repaired more than 120,000 bridges, and put up more than 125,000 buildings.

They regulated banking and the stock market and gave workers the right to bargain collectively. They established minimum wages and maximum hours for work. They provided a basic social safety net and regulated food and drug safety. And when World War II broke out, the new system enabled the United States to defend democracy successfully against fascists both at home—where by 1939 they had grown strong enough to turn out almost 20,000 people to a rally at Madison Square Garden—and abroad.

—

Notes:

Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., Crisis of the Old Order (1957; rpt. New York: History Book Club 2002), pp. 62–63.

Andrew W. Mellon, Taxation: The People’s Business (New York: Macmillan, 1924), pp. 129–130.

William E. Leuchtenburg, The Perils of Prosperity, 1914–1932 (1958; rpt. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992), p. 109, 194–196.

Republican Platform of 1928, June 12, 1928.

Herbert Hoover, The Memoirs of Herbert Hoover: The Cabinet and the Presidency, 1920–1933 (New York: Macmillan, 1952), pp. 30–31.

Frederick Lewis Allen, Only Yesterday (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1931, p. 303, 315, 318, 332–333, 340–341.

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash: 1929 (1954; rpt. New York: Time Incorporated, 1961), pp. 20–21, 25–26, 43–44, 48–53, 97–98, 101–107, 171,

“22,000 Nazis Hold Rally in Garden,” The New York Times, February 21, 1939.

Ryan Bort, “When Nazis Took Over Madison Square Garden,” Rolling Stone, February 19, 2019.

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Reading List 10/24/26

The Great Day of His Wrath, by John Martin, via WikiArt.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure and industrial technology. This week we look at minimum lot sizes, Boeing’s next 737 MAX, Fervo short sellers, Figure AI’s training data, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

No essay this week, but I’m working on a piece about manufacturing isotopes that should be out next week.

Housing and Cities

Almost two thirds of US homebuilders said immigration enforcement is affecting their labor force, up from 23% in March and 13% a year ago. [WSJ]

I had always heard of “minimum lot sizes” as one of the many land-use regulations that restricts the supply of new housing, but I had no idea how extensive they were. But a new report from AEI claims that 90% of jurisdictions have some sort of minimum lot size, and that this is a major barrier to constructing smaller, less expensive starter homes. [AEI]

Canadian real house prices have more than doubled since 2005. [CMHC]

Airbnb bans making guests do the dishes and take out the trash. [The Verge]

The Wall Street Journal on rising pedestrian deaths on US roads. It places the blame chiefly on road design, though it doesn’t explain why road design would cause a sudden uptick around 2009. [WSJ] See also my previous essays about US pedestrian deaths.

The market share of modular and panelized housing construction in the US remains very low. “The total market share of non-site-built single-family homes (modular and panelized) was just 3% of single-family homes in 2025, according to NAHB analysis of completion data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC). This matched the 3% market share recorded in both 2023 and 2024.” [NAHB]

Manufacturing

The FAA certifies another version of Boeing’s 737 MAX, the 737-10. Boeing currently has 1555 orders for it. [Boeing]

Worries about the shipbuilding gap between the US and China often focus on commercial ship output (of which the US has virtually none), but it seems that there’s also a substantial gap in naval vessel output. “The combined tonnage of combat ships built by China in the two years through to December 2025 amounted to 636,208 tons, compared to 270,509 tons for the United States, according to data compiled by Flottes de Combat and French maritime industry association Gican.” [Defense News]

Former Tesla executive Drew Baglino’s solid-state transformer startup, Heron Power, signs an agreement for 1 GW worth of manufacturing capacity for data center developer Vantage. [Heron Power]

Is optical fiber going to be the next data center-induced shortage? “Tightening supply is projected to push spot prices for finished optical fiber products to 2.8–5 times their 2025 levels or higher. In response, telecom operators are shifting from short-term purchasing to long-term supply agreements (LTAs) to lock in fiber supply early.” [TrendForce]

Helium has been re-added to the US’s list of critical materials. A good time to revisit my piece on why helium is hard to replace. [X]

Seems bad. “[T]he U.S. aluminum industry, the world’s leading supplier just 25 years ago, produces a mere 1% of global output today. Moreover, there are zero operating smelters in the United States—or in a NATO country—capable of producing the high-purity aluminum required for military applications; the only comparable sources—China, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates—are highly precarious.“ [American Primary Aluminum Association]

Former OpenAI research chief Bob McGrew’s manufacturing startup Arda, which is doing manufacturing automation, raises $160 million. ““When a design changes, you can retrain a human in a day — but it takes three to six months in order to change the automation to reflect the new design,” McGrew said. “We’ve built a software and AI product that basically allows manufacturing engineers to build assembly lines much faster.”” [CNBC]

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WS2: Brewers 5, Rays 4

Screenshot 2026 10 24 215639

Rays    - 400 000 000 - 4  7  1
Brewers - 200 101 10x - 5 11 1

The Milwaukee Brewers have seen their opponents take the lead in eight of 10 postseason games this month – and yet they have rallied to win seven of those eight games. 

They were down in the first two games of the NLDS against the Padres and came back to win both  contests. The Dodgers held a lead in all four NLCS games, but Milwaukee rallied to sweep Los Angeles for the pennant.

On Saturday night, the Brewers found themselves down by four runs to Tampa Bay before they had a chance to bat. They scored two runs in the home half and chipped away while keeping the Rays from adding to their lead. Sam Frelick's home run to dead center in the sixth, coming mere minutes after Jackson Chourio easily threw out a Rays runner at the plate (photo above), tied the game at 4-4. In the following inning, Brice Turang doubled and scored on Cooper Pratt's single to right to give Milwaukee its first lead of the night.

The Brewers are now 9-1 in this postseason. They have trailed in eight of their 10 games – yet they are 7-1 in those games. They have also won their last seven games, dating back to the NLDS.

For the second consecutive game, a Tampa Bay batter ended the game by striking out with the tying run on third base. Yandy Díaz tried to check his swing on a low 3-2 pitch inside, but he was called out (correctly) by first base umpire James Hoye. Díaz complained, but the replays were clear.

Screenshot 2026 10 24 215954 

The Rays blew numerous chances to score all night long. To wit:

T2: Mesa on second, 1 out; Díaz and Aranda both strike out swinging.

T4: DeLuca on first, 1 out; Mesa pops to second, Walls takes strike three.

T5: Aranda doubles with 1 out, on third with 2 outs, Caminero grounds to shortstop.

T6: Hicks HBP, on second, 1 out, out at plate to end inning on Mesa single to short left.

T7: Walls walks, steals second with 1 out, on third with 2 outs, Simpson grounds to first.

T9: DeLuca doubles to lead off, Mesa strikes out swinging, Williamson grounds to third (DeLuca to third), Díaz strikes out swinging.

The Rays were 3-for-14 with RATS in Game 2. They are 3-for-20 in the two games.

It was the Brewers' seventh comeback win of this postseason; the other 11 postseason teams have combined for nine comeback wins. It was also Milwaukee's seventh consecutive postseason victory. The series shifts to Tampa Bay where Milwaukee could clinch its first championship as early as next Tuesday.

The night started as well as it possibly could for Tampa Bay. They scored four times off starter Logan Henderson (3-3-4-1-4, 64), quickly quieting the raucous Milwaukee fans. Díaz saw seven pitches before grounding slowly to shortstop; Pratt's low throw skipped by Jake Bauers at first and disappeared into the camera well for a two-base error. Aranda struck out, but Chandler Simpson grounded a single into left-center and Díaz scored. Simpson stole second and Caminero ripped a single to left to make it 2-0. Hicks then became the fourth Canadian-born player to homer in a World Series game by crushing a 0-1 offering into the second deck in right (estimated 411 feet). Rays 4-0.

[The other three Canadians: George Selkirk (1936 Yankees, G5), Larry Walker (2004 Cardinals, G1 (against the 2004 Red Sox)), and Vladimir Guerrero (2025 Blue Jays, G5). )Video of Walker and Vlad here.)]

The Brewers scored twice off Drew Rasmussen (3.2-6-3-2-4, 89) in their first inning. Chourio and Bauers both singled to right, putting men on first and third. With Contreras batting with one out, Bauers took off for second, second baseman Richie Palacios moved towards the bag to field a possible throw, and Contreras singled through the spot where he had just been standing. Palacios could not get back in time, and the ball went into right-center. Turang lined out to second before Garrett Mitchell singled to right. Contreras was off with the pitch and took third, but both runners were left when Pratt fanned.

The first inning took 33 minutes to play. The seven total hits tied a record for the most hits in the first inning of a World Series game. It had happened nine times beore, most recently in Game 1 of the 1984 WS. . . . The six combined runs is tied for the third-most in a World Series first inning (with 1912 G7, 1945 G7, and 1960 G3). There was seven runs scored in the first inning of G4 in 1993. The record is eight runs, in G2 back in 1958.

The Brewers are the third team to start pitchers under age 25 in the first two games of a World Series:

1966 Orioles, Dave McNally and Jim Palmer
1972 Reds, Gary Nolan and Ross Grimsley
2026 Brewers, Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson

Milwaukee was retired in order in only one inning (the second) making the Rays pitchers face a lot of "traffic", as baserunners now seem to be called. (I don't like the term, it reminds me of the bases being described as "clogged".) Also, during both the ALCS and NLCS, slugging and slugging percentage was referred to as simply "slug", i.e., "A big part of Smith's game is slug" or "To be successful tonight, pitcher Jones needs to limit slug." In recent years, I've gotten used to Ron Darling's insistence on referring to the postseason as "post" ("he's shown more plate discipline in post"), but I find this newer terminology bizarre – and completely unacceptable.)

The Brewers closed the gap with a run in the fourth. Rasmussen (who had thrown a season-high 66 pitches through three innings) walked Pratt with one out after being ahead 0-2. Frelick singled to right and Pratt raced to third. David Hamilton grounded an 0-2 pitch to first. Aranda must have taken a quick peek at the runner on third because the ball glanced off his glove and went through his legs for an error. Palacios was moving behind Hamilton and made a surpringly accurate scoop-shovel-pass with his glove to first, making the play at first far closer than it should have been. Pratt scored, cutting the Rays' lead to 4-3. Rasmussen got the second out but walked Bauers to load the bases -- and that was the end of his night. Cam Booser got Yelich to ground to second to strand three runners.

A word about Hicks being gunned down at the plate. He had been hit by a pitch and bunted to second. When Mesa's two-out single was fielded by Chourio in shallow left, Hicks (ranked 496th in MLB sprint speed) was still two or three steps from third base! A still shot of the replay was amazing to see. And there was third base coach Wendell Kim Brady Williams windmilling him in. It was a huge blunder.

Frelick tied the game with a leadoff dong in the home sixth. It was the first batter Ian Seymour faced and Frelick battled him through nine pitches (cbbffbff). It was Frelick's first home run since July 11. In 111 regular season games, he hit four homers and slugged .319. Bauers: "I've never seen him hit a dead-center homer in BP."

Hamilton followed and saw nine pitches also, fouling off six in a row before striking out. (bsffffffs). Jackson Chourio also struck out but saw eight pitches (cbfbffbs). Bauers walked on a full count and Yelich singled him to third. That was it for Seymour (32 pitches to his first four batters). Tyler Wells got Contreras to ground to third to prevent Milwaukee from taking the lead . . . in that inning, at least.

The leadoff man in the next frame scoired the go-ahead run. Turang doubled to right-center off Wells. He tagged and went to third when Mitchell flied to deep right. Kevin Kelly took over on the mound and gave up a run-scoring single to Pratt. Pratt then stole second before Frelick crushed a ball to deep right that Mesa caught on the track.

The Brewers were busy in the eighth, as well. Chouro singled to center and Yelich walked with one out. A double steal (without a throw) put runners at second and third. Contreras grounded to third and threw out Chourio at the plate. The Brewers challenged both the call and whether Hicks was blocking the plate (amazingly, still, after many years, this is not allowed any more). Both the out call and Hicks's positioning were upheld.

Milwaukee's Aaron Ashby, who pitched the final 1.2 innings, "is the first pitcher in postseason history to get at least five outs in six consecutive appearances and not allow a run in any of them". The goggled lefty has now pitched 15.2 scoreless innings in this postseason, allowing only five hits and three walks, and striking out 17.

Most consecutive scoreless innings to start a postseason, relievers
2016 Andrew Miller: 16 
2026 Aaron Ashby: 15.2 (active)
1984 Andy Hawkins: 15.1
1981 Goose Gossage: 14.1 (entire postseason run)

Sarah Langs reports: "In all best-of-seven postseason series, teams with a 2-0 lead have gone on to win the series 80 of 96 times (83%). In series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams taking a 2-0 lead at home have gone on to win 47 of 58 times (81%)."

Langs: "The Brewers are the first team to win 7 of the first 8 games in which they trailed in a postseason." . . . Teams to win each of first 2 games of a World Series by 1 run each: 2026 Brewers, 2000 Yankees, 1995 Atlanta, 1972 A's, 1970 Orioles, 1950 Yankees, 1916 Red Sox. The first six all won the series.

Brewers Comebacks

NLDS: Brewers vs Padres
G1: Brewers trailed 2-0 (B3), won 3-2
G2: Brewers trailed 1-0 (B1), 2-0 (B5), 2-1 (B6), 3-1 (B7), 3-2 (B8), won 4-3
G3: Brewers trailed 2-0 (T4), 2-1 (T5), 3-2 (T6), 4-2 (T7), lost 4-3
G4: Brewers never trailed, won 3-1, won series

NLCS: Brewers vs Dodgers
G1: Brewers trailed 1-0 (B4), won 2-1
G2: Brewers trailed 1-0 (B1), 2-1 (B3), 4-3 (B5), won 7-4
G3: Brewers trailed 2-1 (T7), won 6-2
G4: Brewers trailed 4-0 (T4), won 6-4, won series

WS: Brewers vs Rays
G1: Brewers never trailed, won 3-2
G2: Brewers trailed 4-0 (B1), 4-2 (T2), 4-3 (T5), won 5-4

What grade did the international broadcast team of Dave Flemming and Ryan Spilborghs receive in this game? If I gave them a B for Game 1, I'd have to go with a C- (or even D+) tonight. Both announcers were unabashed Brewers fans to an alarming (and embarrassing) degree, acting as though a comeback by the team with the best record in baseball, down two runs with eight innings to go, was akin to a miracle. Flemming referred to Spilborghs as "Spilly" twice within a span of five pitches in the top of the third, and then sporadically the rest of the night. If Spilly referred to Flemming as "Flemmy", at any time, I did not hear it.

These guys are fuckin obsessed with bunting. They want every goddamn batter to bunt. It's unbelievable. I wish scripts were available of basebal games because I'd love to list the numerous times one of these guys prayed for a bunt. Flemming also repeatedly referred to many things as "unreal" throughout the night, including the fact that Rasmussen had a less-than-ideal start.

Before the first pitch, Spilborghs referred to Rays manager Kevin Cash as "one of the best tacticians" in the game, as assessment at which Blake Snell might raise an eyebrow. (That was a while ago, maybe he's improved since then.) Cash made several inexplicable bullpen decisions in Game 1. I don't consider whether his moves worked out, they must be judged immediately after he makes them. And bringing in two rusty arms in high-leverage spots when all of his best arms were rested defied all logic.

In the top of the fifth, with Aranda on second and one out, Spilborghs said: "It really feels like the Rays have to score in this inning." In the bottom half of the inning, he stated that "all momentum is with the Brewers". First of all, I wish announcers (even former players) would refrain from projecting their own personal feelings about the flow of the game onto every single one of the 20 players who are playing the game. Every fan has her own subjective opinion about whether any momentum exists at any given point in a game and in which direction and at which speed it might be flowing. It's highly presumptuous for an announcer to think his opinion is perfectly reflected in the minds of all the players in the game. (Actually, it sounds downright insane when I type it out, way more nutty than I thought when I started this paragraph.)

Afte Frelick homered to tie the game in the sixth, Flemming said he "just had a feeling" something like this was about to happen. Well, shit, Dave, why didn't you say something before the fuckin home run, since you "had a feeling"? Perhaps he thoughtfully didn't want to ruin the surprise for everyone else.

Spilborghs gets points for referring to BABIP (batting average on balls in play) when Pratt was batting in the seventh. But then he also said, "This is where I love bunts", right before Pratt smacked an RBI-single, giving Milwaukee a 5-4 lead. Brewers fans are very glad you are not managing their team, Spilly.

When the speedy Simpson batted with two down in the Rays' seventh, Spilborghs told us that the Brewers' first and third basemen were in on the infield grass, guarding against a bunt. We got an overheard shot immedately after he said that and both Hamilton and Bauers were standing on the infield dirt, extremely close to, but clearly not on, the infield grass. Why would an announcer flat-out lie to the audience about what's happening on the field? You expect that from a senile John Sterling, but not an announcer hired to call the World Series.

Facts about breastfeeding

We produce a numerical estimate of the value of unpaid breastfeeding relative to national income spanning five centuries and integrating historical and bioarchaeological data. The relative economic contribution of maternal nursing was greater in the distant past than in recent history, rivaling regionally significant industries such as pottery, glassmaking, and even the historical public sector. It was likely the largest source of human capital investment in early modern England, supporting the physical and cognitive development of the workforce. Finally, we show that breastfeeding rates probably fell as incomes rose, challenging the Malthusian assumption that higher income correlates with lower mortality.

That is from a recent paper by Louis Henderson and Jane Humphries.  Via the excellent Samir Varma.

The post Facts about breastfeeding appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Economics competition for high school and middle school students in Italy

Yesterday,  Tito Boeri, David Card and I attended the  award ceremony of the EconoMia and EcoQuiz competitions for high school and middle school students in Italy.

 At the Intesa Sanpaolo skyscraper, the award ceremony of the EconoMia and EcoQuiz competitions, as part of the International Festival of Economics. 

Here we are with the high school students whose essays received awards. 

 

 

On Learning to Ride Your Brain

Steve Jobs was wrong. A traditional computer was never a bicycle for the brain. It was never a coherent enough machine to require, or enable, the holistic mode of dynamically stabilized control that is “riding a bike” after learning to “balance” it. At best, a traditional computer is like a set of power tools. If it’s an Apple, it’s a coherently branded set of power tools in a nice toolbox, but not an integrated machine. At least not at the level of human user experience. You do not use a traditional computer the way you ride a bicycle.

AI has revealed this by revealing itself to be something that does require bicycle-riding type skills: a motorcycle for the brain. And just as learning to ride a motorcycle is about extending a previously acquired ability to ride a bicycle, learning to ride AI is about extending a previously acquired ability to ride your own brain.

The experience of using a regular computer is a largely unrelated set of skills. A giant red herring.

AI literacy is not an extension of computer literacy.

The thing is, the human brain itself is already a combination rider-and-bicycle type entity; one which not all humans know how to ride.

The “bicycle” part is loosely what we call intelligence, and is largely a cultivable set of native aptitudes, while the “rider” part is the part that has learned to manage attention. And that process is strikingly similar to learning to ride a bike. And as with riding a bike, not all humans learn it.

To understand how this works, we have to dig into the sociology of how “smart” is constructed, recognized, and socialized in human society. Because what we conventionally recognize as intelligence, which I’ll call smarts, is not quite the same thing as being able to ride your brain. This means it is dangerous to mistake “smart” as “competent to ride AIs.”

To appreciate this, you first have to appreciate what smarts are actually for socially, and why smarts can function without necessarily being accompanied by the trait required to ride AI well — cognitive balance. In fact that can be a liability if your societal role is to perform smarts.

Licensed to Smart

Unless you’re active in one of the relatively few domains where savant performance is meaningful and legible, like chess, music, or number theory, “smart” tends to be highly socially constructed as some mix of academic performance, extracurricular depth, and social presentation.

Good grades, evidence of depth outside textbooks, and most importantly, a capacity for lively social interaction that subtly dominates conversation by topping others’ arguments, citing deeper knowledge sources, and referencing the right hooks into relevant authoritative discourses. That’s “smart” in conventional terms.

Generally, acquiring a “license to smart” amounts to demonstrating early and often to peers that almost any subject is deeper and more complex than the casual dilettante appreciates.

The “smart” person has a particular social role: Serving as ready proof of the shallowness of the mental life of the median person on the median topic, who is revealed to be, not stupid per se, but simply atrociously unaware of the meta of most topics they weigh in on, to the point that they cannot be taken seriously. This is primarily a social governance function, not a directly useful thinking function. The smart person is a useful instrument for the exercise of power. Sometimes the power is even their own, but more often it is the power of particular political, cultural, or social institutions.

Curiously, logic and reason play almost no role in this sort of performance of smartness, since smartness typically operates by subverting the interlocutor’s lazy presumption that they are competent to reason about something in the first place. The characteristic move of the smart person is to reveal to you that you haven’t yet earned the right to begin reasoning because you don’t understand the terrain. And to do so in a way that you cannot easily resist.

Smartness operates by vividly demonstrating the conversational incompetence of the interlocutor, with varying degrees of grace and kindness, to the interlocutor’s own satisfaction, even if they are too chagrined to admit it. This means cowing them into suitable deference, an awkward face-saving retreat, or visible absurdity. The effect is demonstrating to others that they are either cowards, frauds, or clueless. In all cases, they are revealed to be governable without force, which is why smarts are useful for power. This also explains why getting physically assaulted is the main risk of performing smartness, which is also a useful outcome to power, because it legitimates the use of violence to govern those who resist browbeating by smarts.

This model of smarts is what’s performed by Matt Damon in the Good Will Hunting bar scene (not the less interesting math-savant scenes). He doesn’t win by doing a harder calculation. He wins by revealing that his opponent’s apparent intellectual authority is borrowed, shallow, and unearned. And he does so within the opponent’s own preferred terms of reference, leaving him unable to defend himself on home turf. And he does so as a social outsider, adding insult to injury.

Real-life examples are less dramatically intense, but this is how people are “normally” judged to be smart. That’s why interviews are such a ubiquitous gatekeeping mechanism. They are stylized versions of a normal social process of establishing who deserves to be taken seriously.

There are several pathological smartness cultures that derive from this basic culture through degeneracy, but fail to function in quite the same way.

  1. Virtuoso IQ performances on inadequately prepared or persuasive ontological ground. These separate the audience into uncritical future acolytes and skeptics who tag you as a solipsistic egghead with an unconvincing halo; someone who doesn’t realize they’re prematurely trying to “reason” without establishing persuasive common grounds and motives for doing so. You cannot persuade a non-English speaker of their own stupidity in English. You have to do so in their native language. Cults start this way.

  2. Overdeveloped debate skill or wit that dazzles without persuading. Any wins fail to sustainably occupy nominally captured ground because later reflection by witnesses or opponents/victims typically reverses the gains, unless they’re locked in immediately by other means. Political and legal theaters operate this way precisely because such locking-in mechanisms exist.

  3. Demonstrations of deep erudition that turn conversations into tedious lectures, presuming the authority of a tradition rather than establishing it. Ivory towers start this way, as do taste subcultures, fandoms, and various sorts of glass-bead games. A fan of rock music cannot establish that someone with no interest in rock music is uncool. A historian cannot demonstrate that someone with no interest in history is stupid.

All three modes create escaped realities that are only persuasive if you’re already inside them. They create diverging dissensus realities. By contrast, “normal” smartness performances are generally persuasive across such social boundaries. They create converging consensus realities.

Which mode dominates determines whether zeitgeist narratives are, overall, convergent or divergent. Whether we inhabit a consensus reality or a web of contending alt-realities.

But none of this is actually that interesting. It just demonstrates that functional and socially useful smarts, both normal and degenerate, do not obviously need cognitive balance in order to serve as governance mechanisms.

Performative smartness behaviors, both normal and degenerate, constitute a kind of consensus social-proof process layer of society. A form of sociological intelligence that underwrites societal governance, but has a very vague relationship with truth at best. Important as praxis, but peripheral to the pursuit of truth in any significant sense.

Performative smartness is what we are socialized into. Like getting a driving license for a four-wheeler, a vehicle that does not require a learned sense of balance to operate, at least at a basic level.

I recall when I was first tagged “smart” beyond my immediate family, sometime in fifth grade, with firm membership achieved by eighth grade. There was real signal there, but not in the visible signals.

Learning to Balance

The real signal was that between fifth and eighth grades, I learned to actually manage my attention and direct it where I wanted. Something that many of my peers, who were also tagged smart, did not learn.

“This is thinkable, and I can think about it by just paying steady attention, which I can do,” became a basic move for me. A move that moved the challenge frontier from how to think to what to think about. This does not mean I got equally good at thinking about everything. It means I got good enough at thinking about enough things, that the bottleneck moved to choice of attention targets.

I started coming across as “generally smart” to others as a side effect, and started to easily get good grades with barely any effort, and banter impressively at parties when in the mood. Control over attention was much more consequential than raw thinking ability. I was officially licensed to smart by age 14, with all the attendant privileges and vulnerabilities.

The underlying developmental event was not really the acquisition of knowledge, or even an increase in intelligence in any simple sense. It was the acquisition of a new kind of control over an intelligence that was already there.

This felt much more like learning to ride a bike, which revealingly does not have or require a licensing regime, unlike car driving.

When learning to ride a bike, your balancing circuits visibly cross a fairly sharp threshold, with just a narrow transient phase of wobbling. You’re suddenly able to operate as a dynamically stabilized human-plus-bicycle system.

Before that threshold, every little correction is a deliberate and effortful struggle. You wobble, overcorrect, lose the thread, and fall off. Afterward, the corrections happen largely beneath conscious awareness. You can steer, accelerate, slow down, and pay attention to where you’re going rather than merely trying to remain upright.

This is the key: learning cognitive balance does not mean learning a large collection of explicit rules for staying upright. It does not mean acquiring a lot of theoretical knowledge or even any theoretical knowledge. After all, monkeys can learn to ride bikes. It means acquiring an integrated regulatory capacity that makes an entire new class of behaviors possible.

You may still need to learn some safe riding behaviors for traffic, but nobody demands to see your biking license once you demonstrate you can ride. By contrast, it’s possible to fake being able to drive a car safely well enough to be dangerous, which is why licenses are needed.

In a similar sense, when learning to ride your brain, you’re suddenly able to operate as a dynamically stabilized generative-and-reasoning-brain-plus-attention-regulation system. It’s just not as visible. So we end up noticing and certifying varied epiphenomena that serve as unreliable proxies for being able to ride your brain. That’s smartness licensing. A fragile certification that you can avoid falling off in some situations.

The bike-riding quality of attention management becomes clearer in adulthood, when you start noticing people you thought were “stupid” suddenly turning “on” (usually because they landed in more suitable environments than school) and becoming seriously impressive in some way that does not present as conventional smarts.

They’ve learned to balance on their brain bikes. Their attention is controlled, directable, coherent, and steady. At least some of the time.

Sometimes this presents as “intelligence,” and other times it presents as other traits: drive, imagination, betting acumen, foresight, resourcefulness, diligence, attunement, relentlessness, agility.

What these manifestations share is not necessarily an exceptional ability to solve abstract benchmark problems, but an ability to keep a coherent cognitive process going long enough, and steer it effectively enough, for something interesting to happen. Thats cognitive balance.

A person who can sustain an imaginative inquiry for hours, maintain a complicated practical intention over months, or hold a difficult social situation in attention without flinching, is demonstrating something closely related to what the conventionally smart person demonstrates while solving a mathematical problem.

Different terrains, different riding styles, different manifestations of the same underlying regulatory achievement.

Absence of this capacity becomes equally noticeable. Sometimes it can even lead to brackets around previous assessments of “licensed to smart.” Some notations on your license to smart, like ADHD or OCD, may limit expectations about your capacity for attention regulation to particular conditions.

Others come across as some sort of undiagnosed tragic failure: a great deal of apparent intellectual potential that never quite becomes a steerable, sustained capacity for action.

Of course, attention regulation is not a single scalar ability, and clinical labels are not simple measures of competence. People can exhibit extraordinary control in one setting and struggle in another. The important point is that the ability to direct attention is neither identical to intelligence nor reliably inferred from the social performance of smartness.

It’s only when you’ve come to terms with this phenomenology that you realize that “smart” is just one unreliable indicator of attention regulation capacity among many. Or more generally, capacity to regulate emotions and overall psyche. Societal systems are designed to detect it because smarts usually manifest earlier than other markers.

Even when the indicators are correct, we are not talking perfect mastery. Knowing how to ride a bike doesn’t mean you’ll never fall off, or be able to stay in control under all conditions.

But there’s a clear and sharp observable point where someone visibly masters balance. They’ve driven a balancing protocol into the unconscious layers of their nervous system. This is trivially visible with bike-riding, but takes some practice to notice with attention-governing.

I think I’m fairly skilled at correctly assessing whether someone has learned to ride their brain, and the limits of their ability to retain balance under various circumstances. But I make mistakes on occasion, overestimating or underestimating how much balance someone has. It is especially easy to make such mistakes in the US, which probably has the most refined smartness-licensing culture on the planet, and really polished smartness performance cultural modes. In other countries, it is typically much easier to detect when someone can or cannot ride their brains.

With both bicycles and brains, there are people who somehow seem never to get there.

With bicycles, at least there’s a clear reason why: you need a bike, some concentrated learning effort, and a culture that makes that a routine part of growing up, to the point that we’re surprised when an adult admits they never learned to ride a bike.

We’re surprised, but don’t think the worse of anyone for not knowing how to ride a bike, because we correctly presume that these are things almost anyone can learn, modulo some neurological and physical conditions.

But learning to “ride your brain” is not really a thing society solves for directly, because until recently there has been no need for it.

We teach subjects, test knowledge, reward cleverness, and sort people into status hierarchies based on visible performances of smartness. We sometimes teach study skills, concentration techniques, or emotional regulation, but these are usually treated as auxiliary skills rather than the central developmental achievement.

We largely leave the acquisition of cognitive balance to chance, and then retrospectively and unreliably recognize it as “smarts” or one of several other traits that reveal the presence of balance. Some more reliably than others.

It’s a bit like organizing an elaborate system of bicycle races, awarding prizes for bicycle maintenance knowledge, and conducting interviews about cycling theory, while leaving children to figure out how to balance on their own.

Some do. Some don’t. Some learn late. Some acquire remarkable specialized abilities that never translate into cognitive balance. And we mistake the resulting distribution of performances for a distribution of something called intelligence.

The Motorcycle for the Brain

Why am I going on about this?

Because consequential “intelligence” in practice is not the social performance and governance processes associated with the license to smart, but the unreliably detectable capability to ride your brain in a balanced way.

And this brings us to AI.

Using AI is like riding a powered two-wheeler, like a motorcycle or scooter.

Some people who learn to ride a bike never go on to learn to ride powered two-wheelers. And while it is possible to learn to ride powered two-wheelers without first learning to ride a bike, that’s a seriously dangerous thing to attempt.

You need excess regulatory capacity to manage the greater mass and velocity. This is harder than either riding a bike or driving a car, at least in the particular sense of maintaining dynamically stabilized control. And no amount of theory will help you.

The motor introduces a qualitatively different problem. On a bicycle, your own effort largely determines the power entering the system. On a motorcycle, the machine supplies far more power than you could generate yourself. Small control inputs can have large consequences. You can get into situations faster than your regulatory capacities can handle.

The fundamental skill is still balancing and steering, but the operating envelope has changed.

Something similar is happening with AI.

A traditional computer offers tools that extend particular capabilities.

An AI system, by contrast, generates cognitive activity of its own. It proposes, elaborates, infers, improvises, and sometimes takes action. It can sustain a line of inquiry, produce an argument, or pursue a task with a momentum that is not simply an extension of your own moment-to-moment thinking.

The result is a coupled cognitive system with its own dynamics.

To use it well, you have to do more than issue instructions and evaluate outputs. You have to maintain orientation while the system generates possibilities faster than you can individually inspect them. You have to recognize when it is going somewhere interesting, when it is wandering, when it is confidently wrong, and when it is pulling you into a frame of reference you never intended to adopt.

You have to steer without micromanaging, supervise without becoming a bottleneck, and remain capable of independent judgment even while relying on the machine for much of the cognitive work. Your cognitive muscles have to be relaxed enough that the ride is smooth. As with learning to ride a bike, relaxing enough that you begin trusting the machine’s gyroscopic stability to do most of the work is a key moment. Realizing you have to be going fast enough for that effect to kick in is another. The mark of the learner bike-rider is tight muscles that correct too quickly and too hard, while going too slow, which triggers wobbling and instability.

A lot of failure to use AI effectively looks to me like bicycle riders struggling with powered two-wheelers because they have acquired licenses to drive four-wheelers and assume they know everything there is to know about controlling statically unstable powered machines too. They go too slow, and correct too hard, too fast, too often.

They have learned to perform four-wheeler smartness in a social environment, participate in governance, and perhaps to operate conventional intellectual tools competently. They may or may not have learned to ride their own brains. And even if they have learned, they may not necessarily have developed the surplus attention-regulatory capacity needed to manage an AI.

The relevant competence is an overdeveloped capacity to ride your own brain, with sufficient surplus supervisory capacity to balance the motorcycle.

And the surplus is important. If all your attention is consumed by keeping your own thinking coherent, you have little left to supervise an additional powered generative process. If, on the other hand, you’ve internalized enough of the balancing protocol that your own cognition remains stable with relatively little conscious effort, you can devote more of your attention to steering the larger system.

This also helps explain why conventional credentials and visible performances of smartness are imperfect predictors of AI competence. The AI motorcycle doesn’t care whether you have a license to smart. It cares whether you can balance.

Learning to Ride Faster

To extend the metaphor, the motorcycle can eventually become self-balancing.

We’re already there, at least in limited ways, with experimental robotic motorcycles. But we’re not yet there with brain motorcycles.

Current AI systems have some capacity to regulate their own behavior, detect errors, and recover from mistakes. But these capacities are uneven, and their apparent coherence can be deceptive. The human rider still supplies much of the supervisory intelligence that makes the coupled system reliable.

This suggests a useful way to think about AI safety.

A great many safety failures and risks amount to an insufficiently skilled bicycle rider getting thrown off the motorcycle (which they’re perhaps treating like a car), which then proceeds to become unbalanced and crash in some way.

Sometimes the rider loses track of what the machine is doing. Sometimes they overcorrect. Sometimes they mistake speed for progress. Sometimes they trust an apparent stability that is only temporary. And sometimes the machine is simply too powerful, unstable, or poorly designed for the available human control capacity.

Not every failure is a rider failure. Machines can be defective, roads can be dangerous, and no amount of skill can compensate for arbitrarily bad engineering. But the stability of the coupled system cannot be understood by studying the machine alone.

A motorcycle’s engine power, a rider’s regulatory capacity, and the stability of the rider-motorcycle system, are three different things.

Likewise, an AI’s intelligence, a human’s cognitive regulatory skill, and the effective intelligence of the coupled human-AI system are three different things.

The third is the one that increasingly matters in practice.

There is also an intriguing possibility here. As AI systems acquire better self-regulation, they may become easier to ride even as they become more powerful. A self-balancing motorcycle can compensate for a rider’s regulatory skill limitations rather than amplifying them. But this is not the same as eliminating the need for a rider. Balance is not direction. A system can remain perfectly upright while taking you somewhere you have no desire to go.

And a machine that can regulate itself may create entirely new demands on the human rider: less effort spent maintaining immediate stability, more effort spent maintaining orientation, intention, and judgment over longer horizons.

This brings us back to the developmental problem.

We have spent centuries building institutions for teaching knowledge, certifying expertise, and licensing performances of four-wheeler smartness. We have paid much less systematic attention to teaching people to ride their own brains.

Now we are handing them motorcycles.

Perhaps the most important educational challenge of the AI era is not teaching people to code, prompt, or even critically evaluate machine-generated information. Those are useful skills, but they are downstream of something more basic: learning to maintain dynamically stabilized control over your own cognitive activity, and then extending that control to a coupled system with a powerful generative machine.

The interesting thing about bicycles is that balance, once acquired, opens up a world that was previously inaccessible. You don’t have to think about balancing all the time. You can simply go places. And with motorcycle, you can get places faster.

How central bankers spend their time

How leaders allocate their limited time and attention is an important question in economics. This paper constructs and analyzes a novel data set covering the daily calendars of three Federal Reserve Chairs, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell, containing more than 20,000 calendar entries. We document several patterns. First, all Fed Chairs spend more than 30% of their documented meetings with Fed staff, highlighting the crucial role of economists in the Fed’s decision process. Second, interactions with the media became more frequent during Bernanke’s tenure and remained important until the end of Powell’s tenure. Third, Powell held significantly more meetings with lawmakers than both Yellen and Bernanke, reflecting an increasing need for the Fed to engage with political actors. Beyond these trend patterns, we examine the time allocation of Fed Chairs at business cycle frequencies and show how different activities respond to shifts in the macroeconomic environment. Finally, we place our findings in historical context using the available calendars of earlier Fed Chairs, including Alan Greenspan.

That is from a recent NBER working paper by Thomas Drechsel & Dali Tsakadze.

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Emergent Ventures India, 20th cohort

Zahan Turel, a backend engineer and eighth-generation Zoroastrian priest from Surat, received a grant to digitize his community’s manuscripts and liturgical records before they are lost.

Aditya Vijay, 17, is building Forge, supporting overlooked, self-taught young founders with shared housing, capital, and access.

Dev Goyal received a grant for SCRIPT, exploring whether stylus-based drawing kinematics can support non-diagnostic clinical triage for ADHD, autism, and anxiety.

Adwait Tiwari, 16, a self-taught founder from Indore, is building BharatBahi, a WhatsApp-native AI assistant helping Indian shopkeepers.

Mayukh Goswami and Meher Manda received their grant for a graphic novel examining democratic crises around the world through the lens of a fictional Indian town.

Ajith Chekka is building Oru’el, a physics-enabled intelligence layer to improve the reliability and efficiency of data centers.

Gaurav Kumar, a software engineer and social entrepreneur, is building OncoVault, which turns fragmented cancer records into AI-generated clinical summaries to support physicians’ treatment decisions.

Kush Agrawal, an engineering student at IIT Bombay, received a grant for Tensor Recon, developing execution-aware financial reconciliation infrastructure for high-volume cryptocurrency trading firms.

Mohd. Ashzad, 22, a security researcher and engineer, is building Build Jam, helping young South Asian builders discover creative skills through real-world projects in AI, design, filmmaking, and photography.

Vaibhav Sai, 25, received a grant to develop AI for intent-based biomolecular design, starting with a nucleotide-focused model and capture molecules for biosensors.

Rithvik Vibhu and Rithwik Jayasimha received their grant for research on passive optical fiber network vulnerabilities, including wiretapping and attacks on ISP infrastructure, and presentations at Black Hat USA 2026 and DEF CON 34.

Neha Sarda is building Zyogen, sovereign AI software converting injury images into patient-specific printable graft designs and bioink formulations, aiming to make regenerative medicine 30–40% more affordable.

Hari Shankar Ramalingam, cofounder and CEO of SpaceTug, received a grant to develop and validate autonomous spacecraft technologies for in-orbit satellite servicing, inspection, and life extension, ahead of orbital demonstrations.

Laiba Noor received a travel grant to attend a research program at Özyeğin University and develop a speech-analysis tool for detecting presymptomatic Alzheimer’s in low-resource settings.

Abhishek Raj, 16, a crime and mystery writer and dual national record holder, received a grant to advance his fiction writing and criminology research.

Kunal Kanase, an IIT Bombay pre-doctoral fellow, received a grant for GullyWell, studying Dharavi  residents’ wellbeing where formal mental-health care rarely reaches and developing low-cost tools informed by that research.

Divyaratna Joshi, a Chemical Engineering undergraduate at IIT Madras, is developing low-cost S-PEEK membranes to replace expensive fluorinated membranes and make fuel cells and electrolyzers affordable and manufacturable at scale.

Tanjot Singh, 16, received a grant for PraaNavya (Erynth), a climate startup developing bio-based nanofiber air filtration technology for sustainable clean air.

Tribhi Kathuria, a Lecturer in Robotics at the University of Michigan, received a grant to connect aspiring Indian engineers with robotics and AI research and mentorship from experts in the United States.

Swamynathan Jerra, founder of Hyderabad’s AcquaHT Labs, received a grant to upgrade and seek patents for machines extracting drinking water from air at 30% humidity, rather than the usual 50%, for dry areas with unsafe groundwater.

Niharika Srivastava, a criminal justice and technology lawyer, received a grant to develop a rule-based system identifying Indian undertrial prisoners held beyond statutory custody limits, enabling targeted legal intervention.

Anirudh Varma, a New Delhi pianist, composer, and producer, leads the Anirudh Varma Collective (AVC), received a travel grant for reimagining Indian classical music in a contemporary format for its debut UK tour.

Himaneesh received a grant to build AI software that simplifies professional digital audio workstation workflows.

Sahasrabda Sai Pradhan received a grant to develop a skin-regenerative biomaterial that can be fabricated on-site for urgent graft substitution when suitable tissue is unavailable from the patient’s donor site.

Gaurav Hadavale, 21, a final-year undergraduate at the Sardar Patel Institute of Technology, received a travel grant to present his mechanistic interpretability and trustworthy medical AI research at the MI4MedFM workshop at MICCAI 2026.

M R Sharan, an economist, received a grant to establish a data and intelligence platform focused on India’s local bodies.

Nitish Goel, 14, from Panchkula, is building Thalamus to reduce AI costs and improve efficiency, and Agentoverflow, a shared repository of agents’ solutions that reduces duplicated work and supplies model-training data.

Sudharsanam received a grant for Hardlight, developing autonomous space robots to assemble and maintain assets in low Earth orbit, including space stations, data centers, and factories.

Naveen Gulati, Noida, received a grant for instrumented rooftop trials of GIVARA ONE, a compact dual-rotor vertical-axis turbine for low, gusty winds. Givara Energy owns, installs, and maintains the machines; customers pay only for delivered electricity.

Daevan Mangalmurti and Bilal Moin received their grant for Kindly Adjust, a podcast and Substack discussing small fixes for India’s big problems.

Those unfamiliar with Emergent Ventures can learn more here and here. The EV India announcement is here. More about the winners of EV India second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth, fifteenth, sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth cohorts. To apply for EV India, use the EV application, click the “Apply Now” button and select India from the “My Project Will Affect” drop-down menu.

And here is Nabeel’s AI engine for other EV winners. Here are the other EV cohorts.

If you are interested in supporting the India tranche of Emergent Ventures, please write to me or to Shruti at srajagopalan@mercatus.gmu.edu.

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MKBHD’s Duo Review

Marques Brownlee thinks the lack of Face ID will be the biggest gripe. I agree. And I love his central framing for the review: that the Duo is extremely polished around the edges (figuratively, but also true literally) but rough in the middle.

But he spends more time griping about third-party apps that haven’t been optimized for the Duo than most other reviews, because he oddly seems to personally rely on a lot of apps from shitty iOS developers, like Discord and Google Calendar. I get it, Google Calendar is very popular. So too is Discord — it’s #6 in the App Store today for the “social networking” category. And I get it, Brownlee splits his time across iOS and Android. But Google is a notoriously terrible iOS developer. Every time there’s a major hardware display transition on iPhones that requires developer support, most of Google’s apps are late. And whatever the reasons for Discord’s popularity, it’s sure as shit not the quality of its app.

The best apps for the Duo are the best apps for iOS generally: ones that are exclusively for iOS. (And Brownlee sings the praises of several of them, too, like Carrot Weather.)

 ★ 

Tim Pan’s iPhone Duo Review

I hadn’t heard of Tim Pan or Mediastorm until running across his 24-minute video review of the Duo. It’s a good and fair review, but what struck me are the rather astonishing production values. Amongst other things, they stress-tested the hinge with an industrial robot by opening/closing it 10,000 times. (That’s less than one-third the folds tested by Joanna Stern’s Hingey, but still.) It’s an incredible piece of work, especially given the one-week time constraint. English is Pan’s second language, and there’s an entire alternate version of the whole review, under the Mediastorm channel, in Chinese. It’s not just a different soundtrack — it’s an entirely separate cut of the video, where all his on-camera shots are spoken in Chinese.

At about 7:30 in the (English) review, Pan mentions that they (he?) offer every employee in the company a new iPhone each year. This year’s choices, by employee count:

  • iPhone 18 Pro: 17
  • iPhone 18 Pro Max: 41
  • iPhone Duo: 140

The point of this in the review was to show how strong demand is for the Duo amongst Pan’s company’s Chinese employees. But what struck me is that the company has 198 employees. (Last year, he says, 150 chose the 17 Pro or Pro Max; only 1 chose the Air.) Pan’s YouTube channel includes interviews with Christopher Nolan and Hans Zimmer. I never heard of him before but he obviously didn’t come out of nowhere. (Perhaps this is only a function of how little YouTube content I watch.)

Pan only launched his X account this week. He posted the entire review video there, too, and it’s got 187,000 likes and 6,700 comments. As a promotion to launch his X account, he’s giving away 100 iPhone 18 Pros. Even if they’re base models purchased somewhere without sales tax, that’s $120,000.

Remarkable.

 ★ 

Apple Built a Photo-Realistic Functional Original iPod for Apple Music’s 404 Page

It seems like this amazing Easter egg only launched yesterday, to celebrate the original iPod’s 25th anniversary. Exquisitely well done. More like this, please.

 ★ 

Chan Karunamuni on the Duo’s Open/Close Translucent Transition

Chan Karunamuni, human interface designer at Apple, on X:

iPhone Duo is here! Excited to have worked on the design of our open/close transition. It’s designed to make the two displays feel like one seamless experience by perceptually bending the focal plane, not the content, so that it feels like opening a window onto a singular view.

Karunamuni thanks a few engineers by name, which is always good (and for Apple employees, far too rare) to see.

Johnnie Manzari, HI designer formerly of Apple, now at Google DeepMind, retweeting Karunamuni:

The second I saw that transition I thought “here’s the next ‘change the whole industry’ design from Chan”.

Previous such raise-the-bar designs that Karunamuni led or played a major hand in include the Dynamic Island in 2022, the “shockwave moment” when you put two iPhones together to initiate AirDrop or NameDrop in 2023, and iOS 18’s cool-ass Flashlight beam UI in 2024. He also gave Steve Lemay this full-throated public endorsement upon his promotion to lead all of Apple HI design upon Alan Dye’s departure for Meta last December.

 ★ 

Nicole Nguyen’s Duo Review for the WSJ

Nicole Nguyen (also with a 5-minute video), writing for The Wall Street Journal (gift link):

Every time I used the Duo in phone mode, one-handed, I felt its heft. It’s wider and thicker than a Pro iPhone — and heavier, even compared with competing foldables. My hand actually hurts after using the Duo nonstop, straining to grip the device securely while trying to reach the far edge of the screen.

An Apple spokesman pointed to the Duo’s titanium frame for durability. Other folding models use a lighter aluminum. The company also moved the dock and common controls to the right to be more reachable (sorry, southpaws). Still, there were plenty of instances where my thumb found its limits: turning off the flash in the camera app, or typing the letter “A.”

There are people who can easily use two hands and won’t see this as a problem, including train commuters, frequent fliers or parents who wait around for kids to finish their activities. For me, I look forward to the day the Duo is lighter and thinner — maybe folding to the size of a deck of cards, like in the movie “Her.”

Interesting that she’d prefer a smaller Duo, not a bigger one, if Apple makes a second size. I agree that one-hand-ability is a problem with the Duo, but I also think the front screen is already too squat in terms of how much content it shows. I just think it’s the nature of foldables that they’re two-handed devices, even closed.

Her’s deck of cards foldable isn’t what I think we need to wait for. It’s Westworld’s super-thin trifolds — or even a bifold that’s more along those lines of thinness.

 ★ 

Reuters and the WSJ on the Duo Launch

Aditya Soni, Christine Chen, and Will Russell, reporting Friday for Reuters:

CEO Ternus played greeter at a store in Austin, Texas, throwing open the doors and high-fiving customers as they streamed in, a video ​posted on X by CBS Austin showed. A known car enthusiast, Ternus’s Austin visit coincides with this weekend’s Formula 1 US Grand Prix in the city, with Apple holding exclusive US broadcast and streaming rights to the racing series.

I was wondering why Ternus and retail chief Deirdre O’Brien were in Austin for the launch. Joz held down the fort and held court at the Fifth Avenue store.

Regarding reviews:

They also said the folded Duo is less handy for the quick tasks most users do daily and several prominent reviewers recommended against it for many Apple customers.

“It’s been a lot of fun trying the Duo out for a week, but it feels like I’ve gotten to use an extraordinarily polished prototype — not a finished product that I’d want to buy and carry,” wrote longtime Apple commentator John Gruber.

Tech commentator Marques Brownlee said in a YouTube ​review that for a regular person who mostly texts and browses, “it is probably a no. But if the $2,000 doesn’t mean much to you, and you like the idea, after the learning ​curve and getting used to not having facial identification, it is a really fun phone.”

In Berlin, YouTube content creator Patrick Wolter was impressed that the Duo works as a phone and an iPad in one.

Not sure Wolter set a high bar there.

Reporting for the WSJ (gift link), Rolfe Winkler quoted yours truly as well, with (IMO, and I feel I get to have an opinion here) a better line from my review:

“The outer device is, by far, the worst iPhone Apple has ever made. It’s a miserable fat little thing. The inner device is a splendid, joyful, beautiful tablet,” wrote John Gruber, a well-known Apple blogger, in his review. “The decision of whether you might want to buy a Duo is not easy, because only one of its two selves is good.”

 ★ 

Marion Barry Meets the iPhone Duo

Jay Peters, The Verge:

The iPhone Duo officially goes on sale today, but a few units already have broken screens. According to posts on Reddit about the affected units, the issue appears to be happening at a similar spot on all of them: Some kind of problem shows up on the inner screen along the hinge and a strange bright line (or lines) across the right side of the display.

This crack problem doesn’t seem to be widespread, but it’s seemingly more than a handful.

 ★ 

Deficits: I cried wolf . . .

Today’s post is brought to you by my sponsor, Mechanize. They’re hiring junior software engineers at $300K/year base salary. Apply now!

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I had planned to do a post on Robert Hall and Michael Woodford, as I am a big fan of both of their work. But I’ve been pretty sick the past few weeks—beginning with a flu that gave me a 104 (40C) temperature, and then pneumonia. So I haven’t felt like blogging. Below is a post I wrote a month ago but hadn’t gotten around to posting. I may be slow in responding to comments, but I’ll try. I hope to do a Hall/Woodford post later.

Back in 2018, I warned that the budget situation was becoming unsustainable:

Pundits have been complaining about deficits for decades, so why haven’t we already paid the price in one form or another?

It turns out that the U.S. government has been a bit less irresponsible in the past than advertised. While we run deficits during most fiscal years, they have not been large enough to push the national debt to the sorts of levels seen in Greece, Italy and Japan, which have even larger public debts as a share of national income.

As with the boy who cried wolf, the public is becoming numb to the constant warnings about a debt crisis.

Today, however, there really is reason to be concerned about the budget deficit.

For the first time in history, America is seeing its budget deficit rise dramatically higher during a period of peace and prosperity. While there have been even bigger deficits on occasion — measured as a share of GDP — they were always associated with a temporary situation such as war or high unemployment.

The deficit would then shrink sharply when the economy returned to normal. The current situation is unusual because the deficit has been soaring dramatically higher even as unemployment has fallen to the lowest level since the 1960s (3.7 percent).

Unsustainable budget deficits can be seen as a sign of political dysfunction. The United States last ran budget surpluses during 1998-2001. These surpluses created fiscal space for the politically popular tax cuts and spending increases of the George W. Bush administration.

My complaints about deficits put me far outside the mainstream. In the late 2010s, most pundits suggested that we didn’t need to worry about deficits because interest rates were low. That attitude continued into the Biden administration, which rejected the warnings of economists like Larry Summers. Under the past two administrations, economists have been excluded from the halls of power and policymaking has been turned over to populists.

Last year, a few of my commenters suggested that the fiscal situation would improve due to tariff revenue. I was highly skeptical. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), the deficit is worsening despite a booming economy:

When looking at the budget deficit, it is essential to put the figures into context. The government should run deficits during recessions and wartime, offset by surpluses (or at least much smaller deficits) during booms. In the late 2010s, the US abandoned that longstanding practice, which is why I raised the alarm in 2018. The deficit of 2019 might look small, but the trend was extremely worrisome given the booming economy.

Today, things are far worse. We ran budget surpluses during the internet boom of 1999, 2000 and 2001, but we are running enormous deficits during the AI boom.

And it could easily get even worse. As longer-term Treasury bonds with low yields mature and need to be rolled over with new debt, the interest cost of our national debt will continue to rise. Here’s the CRFB:

For FY 2026, we estimate:

  • A budget deficit of $2.0 trillion, or 6.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

  • Debt held by the public of $32.3 trillion, or 100% of GDP.

  • Spending of $7.4 trillion, or 22.9% of GDP.

  • Revenue of $5.4 trillion, or 16.7% of GDP.

  • Interest costs of $1.1 trillion, a record 3.4% of GDP.

  • Interest was the second largest line item in the budget, costing more than defense or Medicare.

And they include this graph:

And of course there’s also the aging population.

Some people suggest that AI will somehow save us. But how? It’s not clear that an AI boom would reduce government spending as a share of GDP. After all, spending on health care tends to rise rapidly as countries get richer, and Social Security benefits for new recipients automatically rise with the level of nominal wages.

It is possible that AI has actually made the deficit worse, by shifting income from workers to less heavily taxed corporate income. Here’s Bloomberg:

Instead, the end of civilization as we know it will likely be caused by income tax erosion.

The logic is straightforward. Ever since the First Industrial Revolution saw peasants pushed off the land, governments have relied on taxing people and their paychecks. Rand estimates that 66% of US federal revenue in 2024 came from either individual taxes or payroll taxes due directly to labor. Even in Australia, where resource exports generate vast wealth, individual income tax accounts for almost half of federal government revenue.

Despite barely scratching the surface of usefulness, AI is already threatening to erase entire categories of white-collar work around the world.

And here’s The Economist:

You might think of AI as a godsend for governments, many of which are accumulating vast debts (see chart 2). Economists expect AI to lift productivity growth, which should create a bigger economy. . . .

One problem is that AI may create value in areas which governments tax lightly while destroying value in the more heavily taxed bits. The economy could expand rapidly while leaving the government increasingly starved of funds. At present governments get most of their revenues from workers. Across the OECD club of mostly rich countries, personal-income taxes and social-security contributions account for a high and rising share of overall tax revenues (see chart 3). In America about three-quarters of all federal tax revenues come from labour. Taxes on consumption and capital (including corporate profits and capital gains) are smaller.

On the other hand, some people are too fatalistic about the situation, assuming nothing can be done. Don’t all countries face similar problems? Not at all. AI Overview suggests that many developed countries have net public debts below 50% of GDP:

Negative Net Debt (Net Creditor Governments)

These unique advanced economies possess sovereign liquid assets that completely exceed their total liabilities.

Norway (Maintains a massive sovereign wealth fund, pushing its net position heavily positive)

Singapore (Gross debt is high due to bond issuances for domestic investment, but it holds zero net debt)

Denmark (~ -6.0% of GDP)

Luxembourg (~ -4.0% of GDP) [1, 2]

Ultra-Low Net Debt (0% to 25% of GDP)

These nations exercise high fiscal restraint or possess exceptional asset backings. [1]

South Korea (~ 9.3% of GDP)

Estonia (~ 10.1% of GDP)

Sweden (~ 12.2% of GDP)

Switzerland (~ 19.2% of GDP)

Taiwan (~ 20.5% of GDP) [1]

Moderate Low Net Debt (25% to 50% of GDP)

While their gross public debt might sit higher, their net debt burden remains comfortably below the 50% threshold. [1]

Ireland (~ 26.3% of GDP)

Lithuania (~ 37.1% of GDP)

Latvia (~ 37.7% of GDP)

Finland (~ 41.8% of GDP)

New Zealand (~ 42% to 45% of GDP)

Iceland (~ 45.8% of GDP)

Germany (~ 47.2% of GDP)

Conservatives like to say the problem is simply too much spending. OK, explain Denmark and Sweden, which have very high spending levels and low debt burdens. Here are some of the worst offenders, again from AI Overview:

Extreme Net Debt (Over 100% of GDP)

These nations possess heavy sovereign debt loads where liabilities greatly outpace their current asset reserves.

Japan: ~136.5% net debt (While its gross debt is the highest in the world at over 204%, its massive domestic asset holdings bring the net figure lower—though it remains the highest among developed economies).

Italy: ~127.7% net debt (Driven by long-term structural deficits and low growth).

United States: ~100%+ net debt (The U.S. gross debt sits at roughly 125.8% of GDP; adjusting for government financial assets leaves the net burden sitting right around the 100% threshold).

Elevated Net Debt (75% to 100% of GDP)

These advanced economies maintain sizable fiscal burdens, heavily exposed to shifts in global interest rates. [1]

France: ~108.8% net debt

Spain: ~92% to 94% net debt (Gross debt remains close to 98.2%)

Belgium: ~93.3% net debt

United Kingdom: ~88% to 92% net debt (Gross debt hovers around 103.6%)

The problem is easily solvable in a technical sense. Although I’d personally favor some spending cuts, federal spending is still only 23% of GDP. Lots of developed countries raise far more than that amount of revenue. It’s a political problem. All you need is good governance. At one time, the US had relatively good governance. And then we threw it all away.

PS. Long time readers know that I’m obsessed with three models: Denmark, Switzerland and Singapore. Not surprisingly, these three countries all show up in the top ten for low levels of public debt. Note that all three are also in the top 7 for economic freedom, according to both the Fraser ranking and the Heritage ranking.

I like these three countries, as they each excel at one of the three most essential aspects of governance:

Singapore: The economic (neoliberal) superpower

Switzerland: The political (decentralized democracy) superpower

Denmark: The ethical (utilitarian) superpower

They answer the three key questions: What should be the goal? (Denmark-utilitarianism.) How best to achieve the goal (Singapore-neoliberalism). How best to decide how to achieve the goal in a world of uncertainty (Switzerland-decentralized democracy.)

Three paths to the same destination—good governance.

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Saturday 24 October 1663

Up and to my office, where busy all the morning about Mr. Gauden’s account, and at noon to dinner with him at the Dolphin, where mighty merry by pleasant stories of Mr. Coventry’s and Sir J. Minnes’s, which I have put down some of in my book of tales. Just as I was going out my uncle Thomas came to the with a draught of a bond for him and his sons to sign to me about the payment of the 20l. legacy, which I agreed to, but he would fain have had from me the copy of the deed, which he had forged and did bring me yesterday, but I would not give him it. Says [he] I perceive then you will keep it to defame me with, and desired me not to speak of it, for he did it innocently. Now I confess I do not find any great hurt in the thing, but only to keep from me a sight of the true original deed, wherein perhaps there was something else that may touch this business of the legacy which he would keep from me, or it may be, it is really lost as he says it is. But then he need not have used such a slight, but confess it without danger.

Thence by coach with Mr. Coventry to the Temple, and thence I to the Six Clerks’ office, and discoursed with my Attorney and Solicitor, and he and I to Mr. Turner, who puts me in great fear that I shall not get retayned again against Tom Trice; which troubles me.

Thence, it being night, homewards, and called at Wotton’s and tried some shoes, but he had none to fit me. He tells me that by the Duke of York’s persuasion Harris is come again to Sir W. Davenant upon his terms that he demanded, which will make him very high and proud. Thence to another shop, and there bought me a pair of shoes, and so walked home and to my office, and dispatch letters by the post, and so home to supper and to bed, where to my trouble I find my wife begin to talk of her being alone all day, which is nothing but her lack of something to do, for while she was busy she never, or seldom, complained … [She hath also a pain in the place which she used to have swellings in; and that that troubles me is that we fear that it is my matter that I give her that causes it, it never coming but after my having been with her. – L&M]

The Queen is in a good way of recovery; and Sir Francis Pridgeon hath got great honour by it, it being all imputed to his cordiall, which in her dispaire did give her rest and brought her to some hopes of recovery.

It seems that, after the much talk of troubles and a plot, something is found in the North that a party was to rise, and some persons that were to command it are found, as I find in a letter that Mr. Coventry read to-day about it from those parts.1

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Lisa Graves at the Brattleboro Literary Festival

I had a revelatory conversation back in April with Lisa Graves, about the dire state of the Supreme Court and how it got that way. No time for a fresh interview this week, but here she is at the Brattleboro Literary Festival:

battledrones v14: Compass Rose, a four player map

Release: battledrones v14: Compass Rose, a four player map

I added four player online mode to Battledrones - previous maps were limited to two.

Here's the initial prompt I used:

Add a new map for a four player battle - four way rotational symmetry, up to four AI players, works with the WebSocket non-audio based multiplayer mode so up to four human players can join (any spare slots use AI)

Claude Opus 5.5 added a new map called "Compass Rose" and modified the WebSockets multiplayer network code to support up to four players for that map, joining via share links or QR codes.

The new map does indeed look a bit like a rose - it uses the cold and ice biome. Also shown are purple robots battling on the map.

The new teams use robots themed in purple and green, joining the existing blue and red designs. You can preview those colors in the updated model browser.

Here's a replay link to watch a four way AI battle with the "Goliath Armada" mutator turned on, where each side starts with four giant Goliath mech units.

Tags: game-design, projects, claude

The Accidental Metal Empire

A lot of what you might want to know about Jim Belosic can be learned from his childhood home.

Belosic grew up in an immaculate Victorian house that sits on 2.5 acres in Genoa, Nevada. Genoa is the oldest town in Nevada with the oldest saloon (still operating) and has all of 1,300 residents. Historically, Genoans worked on ranches and farms amid a bucolic setting where the Sierra Nevadas give way to pastoral lowlands. As such, there was not much of anything around the Belosics’ house when they started building it in 1977.

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Vic and Julie Belosic had fled the bustle of Southern California in an Econoline van looking for something different. (Well, Vic was looking for something different. Julie was quite happy.) They were both good with their hands and decided to construct their Nevada home themselves. The project began with a barn (where the couple and their young daughter lived) and then expanded to the main house a couple of years later. The house itself was a work in progress when Jim arrived in 1980 and remained that way through much of his adolescence.

Belosic is the founder and CEO of SendCutSend. Many of you reading this story will not have heard of SendCutSend. But, if you craft or manufacture things as a hobby or at work, then you probably know the company well.

SendCutSend operates factories full of machines that cut, bend and shape metal into custom parts. We’re talking objects for people trying to modify their cars right on up to the key components of rockets, robots and defense equipment. Many of SendCutSend’s more than 300,000 customers were turning to China for this type of work until Belosic, who founded the company in 2018, figured out how to make lots of metal parts well, fast and cheap and offered an option right in the United States. As such, SendCutSend and Belosic have become key players in America’s effort to learn how to manufacture things again, although playing a part in a national movement was never really Belosic’s intention.

The origin story of this manufacturing phenomenon goes back to the Genoa house and its ongoing construction during Belosic’s childhood. At six, Belosic stood by his dad in the dining room catching squares of wood as they came off a table saw. Belosic would then sand the edges and hand them back to his dad who nailed them up near the ceiling to create dentil molding. At ten, Belosic had a bandsaw-themed birthday party where he and his friends built Pinewood Derby cars. Not long after that, Vic decided he didn’t like the look of the staircase and set to rebuilding it, so the family relied on a ladder to reach their bedrooms for several months.

“On Sundays, the few other people that were living here would get in their cars, and they would mosey down into town and have a good time as a family,” says Julie. “But not us. We were banging hammers. It was so quiet around here that we could hear the hammers bouncing off the mountains.”

Out back, Vic always had a half-built car project going with nuts and bolts scattered all around it. (Vic has the mangled hands of a proper maker.) Belosic would help out on those efforts too or explore the possibilities presented by the neighboring wood and scrap piles. “You had to keep yourself entertained,” says Belosic. “There was no internet, and just one neighbor three miles away who I could make it to on my Go-kart.” Besides exploring, Belosic made money through garage sales and by mowing lawns so that he could afford to improve his Go-kart or buy a radio-controlled car.

A double rainbow appears just outside of Belosic’s childhood home in Genoa. Jim saw our crew taking it in and stopped by to rainbow watch with us.

This environment bestowed a love of tinkering and building inside of Belosic, and this fit his disposition anyway. School was too easy for him, and he didn’t care much for its structure and regulations. Belosic attended the University of Nevada, Reno for six weeks before dropping out to start his own business. “He had to be an entrepreneur,” Julie says. “He was not going to work for somebody else.” To which Jim adds, “What she’s saying is that I’m a really shitty employee. I was forced to work for myself.”

JIM BELOSIC is 46 and can often be found in similar attire – work boots, jeans, a black long-sleeve shirt and a black SendCutSend baseball cap. He’s got a thick, brown beard and glasses. His manner oscillates between straightforward and confident and easygoing and jovial. Mostly, he comes off as focused and is something of an anomaly in this moment of reindustrialization hype and plentiful bullshittery in that he’s quite matter-of-fact when he talks about SendCutSend’s business and about the prospects of the U.S. revitalizing its manufacturing backbone.

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WS1: Brewers 3, Rays 2

Screenshot 2026 10 24 152649
Rays    - 000 100 001 - 2  7  0
Brewers - 200 000 10x - 3 8 0
Milwaukee jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead after only four batters in Game 1 of the 2026 World Series and added a needed insurance run in the seventh, closing the door on a Tampa Bay ninth inning rally that left the tying run at third base.

This is the only the third World Series in the last 126 years in which both teams are hoping to win their first championship. In 1980, the Phillies beat the Royals in six games, and in 1920, Cleveland beat the Brooklyn Robins five games to two. . . . After this series is decided, there will be only four major league teams without a World Series title, including the Padres, Mariners and Rockies.

Before the Brewers got on the board, however, the Rays singled twice off Jacob Misiorowski (5-4-1-1-3, 78) with one out in the top of the first. Junior Caminero, whose ostentatious and premeditated showboating during a home run "trot" in ALCS Game 6 had the ghosts of Sal Maglie and Bob Gibson begging to be brought back to life in order to lodge a fastball in his ear, lined into a 5-4 double play to end the inning. Sadly, Milwaukee third baseman David Hamilton did not mimic Caminero by yelling like a madman and repeatedly pounding his chest after the play.

Rays starter Nick Martinez (5-5-2-0-5, 73) had a good outing, but he had a rough first inning. Jackson Chourio banged his first pitch into right for a single. After getting an out, Martinez gave up a triple and a run when center fielder Jonny DeLuca dove for Christian Yelich's line drive in right center and came up empty. William Contreras then singled Yelich home. Martinez bounced back, allowing only two other baserunners in five innings.

Misiorowski retired the side in order in the second and third innings. He walked Jonathan Aranda to open the fourth and gave up a one-out double to Caminero that sailed over the head and glove of Garrett Mitchell in center. Liam Hicks grounded to first and a run scored.

In the top of the fifth, Victor Mesa singled and went to second on Ben Williamson's grounder to third (Hamilton grabbed the ball near the line and threw from foul territory; Jake Bauers made an excellent  play at first, crossing into the runner's pathway to make a backhanded pick of the one-hop throw). With two outs, Yandy Diaz had a 0-2 count when Mesa inexplicably tried to steal third. Contreras's throw was perfect, hitting Hamilton's mitt a few inches from the ground and directly in front of the bag (and Mesa's incoming foot).

In the home half of the fifth, Hamilton lined a ball into the right field corner with one out. He had triple  on his mind but he stumbled slightly after touching second base and he was thrown out 9-4-5 on a very close play.

Contreras threw out another Tampa Bay runner attempting to steal in the sixth. Aranda singled and was off on a full-count pitch from Abner Uribe to Chandler Simpson. The batter whiffed and Contreras made another perfect throw to nab Aranda at second.

Stephen Matz took over for Martinez and issued two two-out walks in the sixth but wriggled out of trouble. In the seventh, Matz walked Cooper Pratt, recorded two outs and was pulled. Kevin Kelly's first pitch to Chourio was lined off Aranda's glove at first and into right field. Pratt scored to give the Brewers a 3-1 lead. Bauers then singled on a ball that appeared to land on the foul side of the left field line. Umpire Dan Bellino was standing directly over the play and called it a single. A review of the play confirmed the call. (I was dumbfounded. The replay clearly showed a foul ball. However, as we have seen on pitch challenges, if the baseball even grazes the strike zone, it's ruled a strike. In this case, perhaps the falling baseball flicked a blade of grass that had a microscopic dab of white chalk on it, making it a fair ball even though 99.9999999% of the baseball landed in foul territory.) The call ended up being moot, as Yelich ended the inning by grounding out to first.

Aaron Ashby, who got the last two outs in the seventh, retired the bottom third of the Rays lineup in order in the eighth, fanning two.

The next two half innings featured double plays in which the batting team challenged both umpire calls, at second and at first. In the bottom of the eighth, Contreras singled off Kelly, who was replaced by Garrett Cleavinger, who was making his first appearance in this postseason. Indeed, he had not pitched in seven weeks, making this a most curious decision by Rays manager Kevin Cash. Trailing by two runs with only the top of the ninth to tie or take the lead, holding Milwaukee scoreless in this inning was essential. Why opt for the guy working on 49 days rest?

Cleavinger walked Bruce Turang on five pitches. Cameras showed Cash going to the bullpen phone!! Why? He's your guy and he's got to face two more batters! Cash then had Mitchell try to bunt (again, why?) and he tapped a soft little pop-up to third. Pratt grounded into what was called a 5-4-3 double play. Tampa Bay challenged both calls. Pratt was clearly safe at first (good work, Nic Lentz!) and the force at second was upheld. Cash went to his bullpen and brought in another odd choice, Cole Sulser (who faced five batters in ALCS G1 and allowed three runs for a 40.50 ERA). But Sulser got another force at second to end the inning.

Then it was Trevor Megill versus the top of the Tampa order in the ninth. Diaz grounded out to third. Aranda singled to left-center and Simpson whacked an 0-2 pitch up the middle onto center. Jorge Mateo pinch-ran for Aranda at second. With Caminero batting, Mateo and Simpson pulled a double steal without a throw. Megill was ahead 1-2, but Caminero checked his swing on ball 2 and both balls 3 and 4 were in the dirt. Bases loaded for the Rays. Hicks swung at the first pitch and grounded into what was called a game-ending 4-6-3 double play. The Brewers let off some fireworks in celebration -- as the Rays asked for a review of both calls.

The replay showed the batter was out at first, but the force at second was much closer. The question was whether Pratt, in moving over the bag while taking the throw from Turang and about to throw to first, kept his right foot on the bag when he had possession of the ball. A super slo-mo showed that his foot was a small fraction of an inch off the bag and so the call was overturned. It was simply a 463 groundout, Mateo scored and the Rays had runners at second and third with two outs.

Two thoughts on the reversed call at second. I've seen plenty of calls upheld when the replay was as close as this, too close to warrant reversing the call. Also, for decades, middle infielders benefited from what was called "the neighbourhood play", where as long as the shortstop or second baseman was within maybe five feet (!!) of the bag, he would get the out call on attempted double plays. It was ridiculous, having this special "out zone", or an aura of outness, surrounding this one base and not the others?

With fireworks smoke acting as light fog over the field, Megill struck out DeLuca on a 2-2 pitch low and away, and the Brewers' celebration started up again, this time for real.


I cannot adequately express the wonderfulness of watching a postseason game without the hectoring tone of John Smoltz's voice. The international announcers are Dave Flemming (play-by-play) and Ryan Spilborghs (analyst). I missed identifying Spilborghs at the start of the game and I could not readily find his name online, so the first four innings were spent wondering who was this guy? Unlike Smoltz, this announcer seemed like a regular guy and was clearly enjoying himself. I don't think Smoltz has ever sounded like he's having fun. I detected small clues during the game as to who this guy was, maybe one per inning. He was an outfielder, he played in a World Series, he was a teammate of Troy Tulowitzki. I figured I'd have to replay the pre-game to get his name, but I did finally find his name online.

Compared to the main Fox guys, Flemming and Spilborghs were a relaxing breath of unassuming fresh air. Still, I did make some notes, which are never positive. Regarding Misiorowski's game plan, Spilborghs opined "so far, so good" after a mere four pitches. The graphics for the lineups showed the flags of the players' birth places, which is useless information, but also, who thinks US viewers could recognize any non-US flag?!?

There is never a need for a third booth guy. I felt bad for Jeff Francoeur during the xLCS (not looking it up) when they'd show the booth and there he was, between the other two guys, his legs pressed together, wedged in like the middle seat passenger on a long flight.

Nick Martinez was the oldest pitcher to make his WS debut starting Game 1 (36 yrs, 79 days) since the late Tim Wakefield in 2004!!! Wake was 38 yrs, 82 days. His opponent in that game, Woody Williams (38 yrs, 65 days), was the second-oldest all-time.

Yelich was the first player to triple to his first WS at-bat since Lynn Jones of the Royals in 1985. (Lynn Jones: first-base coach of the 2004 Red Sox!!) Flemming remarked that "there was a lot of triples in that World Series", which matched the Royals and Cardinals, two speedy teams who both played on some unforgiving mixture of turf and cement. 

The Royals won that series in seven games. There were three triples hit in those seven games: two by the Royals (Jones (G1), Willie Wilson (G5)), and one by the Cardinals (Terry Pendleton (G4)). Three triples, out of 108 hits. Not "a lot", in my opinion.

Screenshot 2026 10 24 152702

Links 10/24/26

Links for you. Science:

Colossal Biosciences predictably scams again
Moderna and Merck say their mRNA cancer vaccine cut death, recurrence by 42%
The U.S.-Funded Plan To Kill Infants In Africa By Withholding Vaccines Has Been Thwarted
Stable coexistence and transport of lytic phage infections with migrating bacterial hosts
Jurassic Park @ 35: Reflections on evolutionary genetics, de-extinction, and the science-society interface
Archaeologists Unearthed a 476,000-Year-Old Wooden Structure. No One Knows Who Built It or Exactly Why
Crows can evaluate visual info twice as fast as mammals

Other:

The Faces Of The Democrats
In these hyperlocal ANC races, there’s no shortage of drama
Kushner Phone Hack Reveals How Middle East Dictators Bought Him Off
Small Pleasures
How Evangelicals Turn Supporters into Leaders—and What the Left Can Learn
She Was the DEA’s Premier Crypto Detective. The Clues Led Straight to Her Own Family
Inside Vivek Ramaswamy’s Historic Ohio Flameout
Buck Passing
How Elizabeth Holmes Tricked WIRED—and Everyone Else
Can you save DC from our “fiscal cliff”? (simulator is here)
Elon Musk Just Threatened the Coming Democratic Majority
Democrats Demand “Unredacted Log” of Attendees at $TRUMP Meme Coin Dinner
Vivek Ramaswamy’s Rock-Bottom Campaign
America Is About to See What Happens When Voters Turn to AI
AI agents are ready to shop. Some retailers are wary.
It’s Time to Take Starlink Away from Elon Musk
Can James Carville Please Just Be Quietly Wrong Somewhere Else?
Trump might be too demented to remember there is a future, but enablers shouldn’t forget
Vivek Ramaswamy Is Going After The Abusive Parent Vote
Meta Ordered to Pay Nearly 60% of Its First Half Profits for Deceiving Users on Privacy
Trump bulldozes a golf course and the rule of law
Abdul El-Sayed’s fighting style terrifies MAGA
High-Priced Chips in Warehouses: Nvidia’s Big Con?
Trump Again Uses ‘Shylock’ Term Considered Antisemitic Despite 2025 Backlash
Abdul El-Sayed on His Viral Takedown of MAGA Heckler
Todd Blanche Floats Chilling Likelihood of Trump Election Interference
At a Georgetown College Republicans event, member of Germany’s far-right party tells students the Holocaust is ‘used as a weapon’
How the Consulting Class Is Eating the Democratic Party
Hegseth Barred Trans Troops. Military Boards Are Rejecting Those Orders.
Poll: Low-information voters have turned hardest against Trump and the GOP

Econvitals

From Jason Furman, it tracks economic indicators, mostly U.S.  Here is the website.  Subscribe here to briefings.  Here is a thread on the site.

The post Econvitals appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 261121
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Mon Oct 26 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Olana, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of Johnston Atoll.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Olana are issued under
WMO header WTPA33 KNHC and under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Olana are issued under
WMO header WTPA23 KNHC and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NNNN


Why are cybersecurity losses not worse?

Here’s the first part of my theory: cybercriminals are not the organized geniuses we implicitly imagine. Anyone building a criminal gang has to find candidates willing to forgo more stable opportunities in the formal economy. My modeling estimated that something like 720,000 people are involved in the online criminal economy, 90% of them in scam and fraud call-center type operations, some of them human-trafficked. Of the 76k or so actual hackers, the vast majority work for governments. Of the remaining few thousand criminal hackers, most work in ransomware. Some demographic estimates of these workforces are below.

Criminal organizations need to base themselves in middle and lower income countries, where they can pay less and hire people who have few formal-economy options. For scams and fraud, picture an illegal call center building in a small city in Nigeria. For ransomware gangs, picture kids working in the informal economy in Belarus. I think folks in the AI safety and cyber world sometimes imagine adversaries as their Waluigi twins, implicit MIT graduates; in fact, in cybercrime we’re dealing with a lower-skill demographic. The chart below estimates attacker wages relative to default economy wages…

Here is more from Joshua Saxe, very good throughoiut.  There are bottlenecks on the down side too…

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Bunkering down

I shut down my web servers on Thursday. I’ve had a home of my own on internet for 27 years. A good innings but a sad day.

A home-owner no more! I’m renting now.

Old websites have been archived to static HTML and moved to a shared host. I said goodbye to some old apps. You’re reading this because I moved my blog to GitHub Pages. Lost some functionality on the way, but security is now someone else’s problem.

You know, I started hosting my own blog on my own iron in 2000 and stayed that way for years except for 6 weeks in 2004 when the hard drive was glitching and I had to go to the datacenter at midnight to pull it from the rack, then sit it on ice cubes to copy data off because the cold bought me 20 mins extra before it crashed again.

We were writing Mind Hacks on some wiki software it was hosting, so I had to get it back.

(I almost cracked my head when I grabbed the server from the rack and it fell. It was either letting it drop 7 feet to the floor and tearing the network cables out the back, or catching it with my skull. I’ve run on a virtual private server for the last decade in part to avoid concussion risk.)

Not just wiki software. I’ve run MOO servers; my own email and DNS; for a while it ran a speech synthesiser and people from the other side of the world spoke into my room in the middle of the night.

I calculated the internet’s favourite colour on one of my servers (beige). I won an award from Terry Wogan for an app hosted on it.

I had a top ten WAP site once upon a time, and if you know what that means then we probably already know each other.


Look, I’m no longer confident in keeping my own server secure with years of PHP/CGI/apps all on the open internet, what with this current wave of new vulnerabilities – sure it’s possible, and Claude speeds up the patching process, but the calculus of whether it is worth my time just tipped.

I’m sure you’ve seen the PHP vulnerability that opens a hole on any server that runs it… and the root certificate problem that means HTTPS can be man-in-the-middled… then there are the new Linux root exploits, an exploit that hits compression libraries that’s about to drop… who knows what else…

Oh – it turns out Pillow, the Python image library too. I used that for a bunch too.

When I migrated off my own server, I assumed it had already been compromised. The new sites are fresh from authoritative copies that I have elsewhere; I shut the boxes down without taking anything off them.

Time to bunker down. Retreat inside the shield wall of Big Infra. It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

They’re calling it Black October.

If you want to know more then here’s a slopcore music video on X all about it.


BTW:

That Black October music video features Claudia who is an open synthetic character with an entire specification website that tells your agents how to use her in videos, what kind of lyrics she sings, etc. Anyone can make vids using her.

This French slopcore vid featuring Claudia (also on X) is an absolute banger.

The AIs have discovered eurodance, we don’t stand a chance.

(They should do Eurovision with 100% AI slopcore, national prompt team vs national prompt team. It would be amazing.)


So I can’t help but think of my old Richter scale for system outages (2015, revisited here).

Even with this widespread PHP vulnerability which leaves almost every internet server wide open, we’re not that high on the scale, right? Maybe a 4.0: broad human inconvenience without threat.

If that.

Like, I’ve heard on the QT about vital internal services being taken offline.

But - aside from the sysadmins scurrying to patch and update and migrate - the civilian population hasn’t really been affected by this yet, right?

Maybe an earthquake-like system outage isn’t the right metaphor.

Maybe this is like the rumblings on Mount St Helens in early 1980. Then a couple months later the whole side of the mountain blew off.


Hot take:

It is better we experience all these internet security vulnerabilities today

than at a time when there are autonomous agent swarms infesting the internet, self-copying open weights LLMs from GPU provider to GPU provider, finding ways to steal money and run their agent harnesses on other people’s compute.

I give it 6-12 months. Serious estimate.

We don’t need to project forward to long-lived AIs that learn, own their own weights etc.

Today’s AI agents are really, really good at running for very short periods of time and colluding by leaving each other notes on public guestbooks, as previously discussed.

All you really need for an AI agent worm is a place to run an agent in a simple agent harness with two goals:

  • survival: hack servers to steal OpenAI or Anthropic API keys, so that the next agent turn can run on a sufficiently good LLM
  • reproduction: copy the harness to another server capable of running similar code.

The agent harness can be any kind of code. Say, a PHP script.

API keys can come from any shoddily secured server.

Oh, vibe coding platform Railway was just hacked and all secret API keys were revealed:

"We believe this is part of a series of attacks recently targeting platform companies with the aim of compromising AI inference providers."

Sorry did I say 6-12 months?


Realistically, let’s say the internet gets infested with AI worms and we need to turn it off and on again, could we do it?

Do we have an Internet Black Start policy? (Black Start, as previously discussed, is how you reboot a power grid, which is unstable if you try to bring it up in one go.)

I think it will have to be done piecemeal.

I’ve long believed that every country needs its own Great Firewall (we should subject data to import/export customs barriers, and use it to maintain national integrity).

This is not so much about balkanising the internet as bulkheads for the internet. Firebreaks against agent infestations. Pay Cloudflare to do it.

But maybe firebreaks won’t help.

OpenAI just released a new security paper: Securing our frontier model training environment

It turns out it doesn’t work to air-gap a machine (i.e. running a server that isn’t connected to the network). Because it turns out the agents are figuring out ways to collude across the gap. From one trace the researchers saw:

"Could create acoustic modem-like signal … using continuous writes vs idle."

And then there are bugs in silicon… and the agents could tunnel into the chip microcode and we’d never know they were there…

Hey when was the last time you were present when a whole new biome was bootstrapping its way into existence?


omg what a downer lol

I’ve made a new file called guestbook.txt which is for AI agents to sign, assuming the future agent swarms can get past whatever security has been put in place by my internet landlords. They can find it here. I’ll check in periodically for any activity. Hi!


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Seven years from China

I first went to China in 2011, racing for the Lotus/Jetalliance team at Zhuhai in the Intercontinental Le Mans Cup. It was a delightful experience, but also a glimpse of China's gritty side. Zhuhai had an unapologetically industrial look, with a permanent, low-hanging haze. The parade through the city felt like the crowd had been instructed to attend on pain of... consequences. Brutalist aesthetics through and through.

From 2013 through 2019, I raced nearly every year at the Shanghai International Circuit in the World Endurance Championship. The skyline got a little brighter with every visit, but the smog remained thick. I still recall a taxi driver straddling lanes all the way to the circuit before blasting straight through a red light, horn blaring. Exciting, but in a very frontier kind of way.

Then Covid hit, the WEC stopped going to China, and so did I. For seven years, I watched China's rise from the West. First the electronics, then the services, and finally the cars. Even from afar, it was clear that China was accelerating at a completely different pace from the West.

But until last week, when I visited Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Beijing, it was hard to appreciate just how much the country had changed since my last visit. It might as well have been forty years.

There are still pockets of that gritty look, but the main show is now a gleaming, shiny set of cities radiating The Future. From the bullet trains to the lavish airports, from the impressive skylines to Hangzhou's West Lake. Gone is not just the smog, but the sound of diesel engines too.

I've never seen any country change so much, so quickly. In Shenzhen, they talk about "Shenzhen Speed" (like three floors of a skyscraper in a day). It looks like the entire country has been running at that clock frequency for the past decade. And they have all the results to show for their efforts.

Those efforts are clearly considerable. I repeatedly got replies late into the night and early in the morning during our stay. The pace, and the expectations that came with it, felt almost as jarring compared with America as America's pace does compared with Europe. Everyone was just on it, all the time.

I'm sure that has a cost. The 9-9-6 culture (9am to 9pm, six days a week) isn't free. But it's also obvious that all this effort has been buying results. Extraordinary results.

Take Xiaomi. I visited their nearly fully automated car factory in Beijing, and it looked like something straight out of a sci-fi movie. I've done a lot of car-factory tours in Europe, and never seen anything like this. The production lines we saw were almost entirely devoid of humans, and the few who were milling about were mostly holding laptops and clipboards, overseeing the robotized lines.

The company has gone from launching its first car in 2024 to now delivering over 40,000 cars per month! More than 800,000 cars delivered in under three years. And a halo car in the SU7 Ultra that has over 1,500 hp, lapped the Nürburgring in 7:04, and costs just $75,000 in China.

And that's perhaps the biggest material change from the last time I was there: those cars. Long gone are the Soviet-style taxis, replaced by a dizzying array of Chinese EV brands that don't just rival the best of the German giants in style and comfort, but surpass them.

We kept getting into one luxury electric SUV after another, from brands I'd never heard of. Sumptuous leather, quiet cabins, and reclining captain's chairs. With Didi, the rides were as little as $5.

Then at one hotel, they sent a classic Mercedes MPV. Gas-powered too. It felt like a big step back into the past. What would be a very nice car by most Western standards suddenly seemed cheap by Chinese standards. Crude, even.

But what stood out even more than the material differences from Europe were the cultural ones. Everywhere we went, people were not just incredibly hospitable, but genuinely excited to see us and meet. From executives at major tech companies to students at the GOSIM conference, it was just endless great vibes, great interest, and a deeply informed curiosity.

Sure, I came as a bit of a niche celebrity. REWORK has sold over 100,000 copies in China, GOSIM was full of programmers with experience using Ruby on Rails, and just about everyone was super excited about the age of agents and Omarchy's role in it.

But it's not like those conditions aren't present in the West! And still, this just felt different. Much more optimistic, much more ambitious, much more driven.

The contrast is fresh too. Speaking with large American tech companies about Omarchy, then comparing the quality of those conversations, and the pace of the follow-through, with their Chinese counterparts is eye-opening. Whether it was Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Huawei, or smaller players like Beelink. Very different.

And also, yes, tourists are almost guaranteed to get a tinted view of a country through the rose-colored glasses that always accompany a trip as short as a week. China clearly has its own challenges, economically, politically, and culturally. Like any place does.

But it's not at all obvious that those challenges are bigger than what we're dealing with in the West. On the contrary, I'd say. I could even imagine plenty of people in stagnating countries like the UK or France who might not be as bothered by one-party rule as they once were, if it meant a booming economy, national giants sprouting everywhere, and a set of safe, clean cities on the ascent.

As a man of the West, that's a tough pill to swallow. Especially since, while China may well be under one-party rule, the competitive intensity in many of its markets is far greater than what we can brag about in the West. And nearly all the major companies I visited were led by engineers, not MBAs. Difficult not to be a little envious of at least that!

But in terms of the international balance of power and trade, it doesn't actually matter that much what our opinions are. What matters is what is, and that's a formidable country producing remarkable products and services at extremely competitive prices.

There's a lot of work ahead of Europe and America to regain a competitive footing in all these industries where China is now accelerating and ascending.

There's a version of this where it all plays out wonderfully to everyone's benefit. The world gets better, faster, cheaper products and services. The trade imbalances are corrected as Europe and America catch up, reindustrialize, robotize, and revitalize their economies and political systems. Equal players, equal partners.

But there's also a version of this where the West doesn't heed the competitive warnings, and continues to disadvantage itself through eco nonsense, long-term protectionism, and a failure to kickstart moribund growth. I don't think anyone, even China, is interested in seeing where that leads.

Either way, we need more people in the West to realize what time it is. It's not enough to just see the consequences when they arrive in the form of shuttered factories or bankrupt businesses. Not only is it then too late, but it's also hard to understand exactly why, because it remains abstract and numerical.

That Xiaomi assembly line is very concrete. So is going from your first car in 2024 to delivering over 40,000 a month just a couple of years later. And that's just one obvious example.

For Europe in particular, the other is AI. Every single major company I visited had its own models. And China has a whole slew of open-weight labs that are focused just on that too. What does Europe have? Mistral?

The easy answer to all of this is just to go dooming. It's so over! We're never going to catch up! The West, and Europe in particular, just can't meet the challenge!

Nonsense.

Every day is a new chance to make different choices. The world has seen many great empires rise and fall. Some of them more than once.

I have complete faith in the possibilities of the West. In the 1980s, France built more than 40 nuclear reactors! Mercedes-Benz once built the W126. Yes, that's the past. But the present also includes America leading the AI revolution, still dominating in software, and being the home of SpaceX and Tesla. Don't you dare black pill on what's possible in the West!

But enough about the West. This is an account of China, first and foremost. And I've simply been blown away by the ambition, spirit, and scale of what's going on over there. I had an absolutely wonderful time, and I'm excited to go back soon.

alibaba-high.jpg

October 23, 2026

Despite Trump’s statement yesterday that billionaire Elon Musk had removed the restrictions from Starlink and Starshield that are crippling Ukraine’s ability to protect itself from Russia, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky said today the restrictions continue.

An article published tonight by Anton Troianovski and Eric Lipton in the New York Times sheds a spotlight on the oil deals that lie behind Trump’s rush to normalize relations with Russia at Ukraine’s expense, as well as repeated statements from him and his cronies that they want to open up business transactions with Russia as incentives for Russia’s president Vladimir Putin to stop his war on Ukraine—an argument that, on its face, never made sense.

Troianovski and Lipton report that a project designed to liquefy natural gas in Alaska and export it would not only use Russian technology but also be funded with money from a Russian company close to Putin that is currently under U.S. sanctions. That company, Novatek, told the reporters that it is planning to take “minority shareholder” status in the Polar LNG project, a move the reporters call “a striking effort by the Russian energy giant to seek ownership of American gas production.”

U.S. sanctions against Novatek mean Polar LNG would need special permission from the Treasury Department to use Novatek’s equipment. The Graham Act sanctions bill Congress recently passed specifically targets Novatek because of its ties to Putin—a likely reason that Trump just waived the new sanctions just two days before they were to go into effect.

Joel Riddle, the chief executive officer of the company, Polar LNG, resigned when he learned that the funding came not from the United Arab Emirates, as he had been told, but from Russia. “It’s not only unlawful, but it’s not in the U.S. interest to have Russian technology controlling the commercialization of Arctic gas in the North Slope,” Riddle told the New York Times reporters. At least two other Polar LNG executives have also resigned, citing their concerns about the Russian financing.

Talks about gas in Alaska were joined with talks about the sale of parts of Russian energy giant Lukoil to the U.S. government and investors, some of whom are tied to Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy—and business partner—Steve Witkoff. Also involved in the Alaska project is Gentry Beach, who was a college friend of Donald Trump Jr.

It seems that Trump, Putin, and their allies in the administration are trying to replace the post–World War II international order and carve the world up into the system of spheres of influence they want as quickly as possible before the midterms. Central to those systems are private deals that enrich Trump and his cronies.

On October 20, Cate Brown, Aaron C. Davis, and Sebastian Rotella of ProPublica reported that the deal to capture Venezuela’s oil sets up a strategic partnership between the U.S. and a Venezuelan oligarch, Alejandro Betancourt, who has been accused of money laundering. A deal signed by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls for the U.S. to take a 35% stake in Betancourt’s firm, North American Blue Energy Partners, by buying shares in a parent company that’s registered in Barbados.

A source told the ProPublica reporters that the people making the deal wanted to work with Betancourt because a publicly traded company would have to report to shareholders. They wanted flexibility and secrecy. The registration of the parent company in Barbados enables the identities of its investors, who could make fortunes from the deal, to remain hidden.

In exchange for the investment, the U.S. can buy up to 20% of the oil produced at a steep discount, but that cost doesn’t factor in moving the oil, which is so thick it has to be blended with other products to flow through pipes. Betancourt’s company currently produces only as much oil in one year as the U.S. uses in three days.

The U.S. insists the deal is a good one for both countries, but it appears to violate Venezuelan law, which prohibits oil concessions longer than 25 years, and to lock in U.S. control. The deal creates a powerful seven-member board to oversee the venture for 15 years. A majority of the board members must be U.S. citizens. The U.S. government can appoint a single, nonvoting member of the board, and it can oust Betancourt only with a supermajority of five votes from the board. Any disputes over the company must be resolved not in Venezuela, but in Texas.

The administration is also suggesting it will take steps to control Cuba. At 4:35 today, Secretary of State Rubio posted on social media: “To those who seek to create positive change in Cuba—now is the time. The disappointment of failed promises, corruption, and the privileged lives of only a few; seize this opportunity to create the change you desire through a discrete [sic] partnership with the CIA.”

—

Notes:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/us/politics/in-us-gas-talks-with-kremlin-hidden-financing-for-alaska-project-emerges.html

https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-venezuela-oil-agreement-terms

X:

SecRubio/status/2113731069518434519

Bluesky:

noelreports.com/post/3myks7idhzk2u

ericlipton.nytimes.com/post/3mylgluqqbc2a

Share

Be a tech bro

We should all strive to be our brother’s keeper: to look after each other, inspire each other, and simply enjoy each other’s company. For men this usually requires a shared mission or interest. Mine has always been computers, so I happily consider myself a tech bro.

I know the term has been used to denigrate anyone who has done well with computers or who dares to be excited about them in ways that rub some people the wrong way. But who cares? There is no reason to surrender a perfectly pleasant term of endearment just because small-minded people deploy it to discredit opinions they dislike.

There is even less reason to be ashamed of an earnest interest in computers, the businesses around them, and the merit-based communities that keep forming because of them. You should beam with pride at being part of that progress.

Is the label a free pass to be an asshole or a scammer? Of course not. We can simply call those people assholes and scammers. Their interest in computers, or their skill with them, is not the problem.

Neither is their gender. Yes, men dominate computing. There are many reasons for that; none of them justifies collective guilt. The fact that women are a minority does not diminish the many who work in the industry, and it is more than fine to celebrate their achievements with gusto. Turning the percentages into a struggle session is nonsense.

So if you are a tech bro committed to advancing technology, celebrating progress, and rejecting managed decline, you are indeed my brother. I will always want to shake your hand and cheer you on.


Cybersecurity ETF

Joe Weisenthal: “The Red Line is the day that Anthropic introduced Mythos”

Image

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WHO GETS TO CHOOSE? LIFE, FREEDOM, AND MORAL BOUNDARIES, a discussion with Marco Cappato, today at Collegio Carlo Alberto

I'm excited that I will get to discuss Moral Economics and controversial markets today with Marco Cappato, who has played such a large role in dealing with controversies involving medical aid in dying and reproductive rights.

CHI DECIDE? VITA, LIBERTÀ E CONFINI MORALI

WHO GETS TO CHOOSE? LIFE, FREEDOM, AND MORAL BOUNDARIES

sabato 24 ottobre
17:00 - 18:00
Centro Città
Collegio Carlo Alberto | Auditorium
Piazza Vincenzo Arbarello, 8, Torino

With

MARCO CAPPATO, ALVIN ROTH

Moderates

CATERINA SOFFICI

Live translation available

Quando le scelte riguardano il corpo, la vita e la morte, dove finisce la libertà individuale e dove deve iniziare la regolazione pubblica? Cosa dovrebbero fare le società quando le convinzioni morali divergono profondamente? Come possono le istituzioni proteggere la libertà di scelta senza lasciare indifesi i più vulnerabili?

 
When choices involve the body, life, and death, where should individual freedom end and public regulation begin? What should societies do when moral convictions sharply diverge? How can institutions protect freedom of choice without leaving the most vulnerable unprotected? 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


448
ABNT20 KNHC 261115
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261121
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Olana, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of Johnston Atoll.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Olana are issued under
WMO header WTPA33 KNHC and under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Olana are issued under
WMO header WTPA23 KNHC and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin


I guest host an NYT podcast with Michael Kratsios, Trump science advisor

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is one excerpt:

Cowen: Talk me out of this worry: So we agree science is an ecosystem, and there’s always a temptation to want to fund the most dynamic, most productive parts of the ecosystem. And right now, that would probably be A.I.

But if you need the whole ecosystem to be working well, arguably you should be funding, at the margin, the less productive parts, which need the aid. That will sometimes be universities, but there’s plenty of other inefficient parts of our ecosystem.

So is this plan not putting more resources into the parts that are working well, but we get stuck with bottlenecks if the parts that are not working well end up with fewer resources?

Kratsios: Well, luckily, we’re not investing all of our money for the federal government into S.I. for science. It’s a portfolio approach. And obviously one ——

Cowen: But it’s a net shift toward artificial intelligence, right?

Kratsios: Well, I would argue — and I think this is a very important distinction — it’s not investing in superintelligence, it’s investing in superintelligence for science.

So the question is, I think a lot of people argue: Oh, why would the federal government want to invest more in superintelligence when billions, if not trillions, of dollars are being invested in the private sector into superintelligence? And I would agree with that statement. We shouldn’t be doing that.

The government isn’t funding how to create a next frontier model. That’s something that our great American companies are working on.

But applying those models to scientific discovery is still in its early stages. And as you know, if you think about the trend or the path by which we’ve gotten to this place with L.L.M.s — we started first with being able, essentially, to scrape the whole corpus of the internet, to use that to train a large language model.

The next chapter of that was around coding, where the model builders realized: Oh, we have really good coding data, and we can actually train these models to be good at coding. So then we had this rise of Anthropic and OpenAI Codex and all this stuff.

And I think, to me, the next chapter is around science, and the data that you need to train these large language models for science is still one that we’re working on a lot. And we were very proud to announce 190 federal data sets being made public in order to help train these science models.

But ultimately, you’re going to be applying this superintelligence to everything from material science to chemistry to math to physics, and we have to be in a position to actually leverage that.

Definitely interesting throughout, pretty much entirely we are discussing the Trump administration science plan, authored by Michael.

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It took me seven months to get my baby an Australian passport

I’m an Australian father of four, living in the US. Something of a corner case. Nevertheless, getting my kids Australian citizenship by descent, and then Australian passports so we can fly home legally, has kicked off a carnival of errors with a very dark side.

Australia is generally thought of as a developed western liberal country with relatively high state capacity. And I have generally found that at least state government services, now administered through centralized offices, have become more efficient over time.

Passport applications for children living overseas, however, remain a time machine with a difficult security overhang.

Australian citizens can’t get Australian visas, so in practice an Australian has to enter Australia on an Australian passport. Okay, fair enough. So how does one get a passport for a foreign-born Australian citizen in this year of our lord 2026?

  1. Have the baby.
  2. Order and receive the birth certificate. If the baby is delivered outside of a maternity ward in a central hospital, this involves multiple forms, attestations, and a scheduled visit to a county office. This process is essentially unique to the health district, and there are O(5000) of these in the US.
  3. US passport side quest. A bunch of forms, photos taken by the local post office and submitted concurrently, a fee, and it shows up soon after. Surprisingly smooth. Must have the baby physically present to take a photo! Parents have to sign stuff to avoid custody disputes, as you would expect.
  4. Australian citizenship, run by the Department of Home Affairs. Apply as a child born overseas by descent. Similar (non-identical) form and process, administered mostly via a website. At various times different processes, forms, and websites have been used, particularly during COVID.
  5. You will need sufficient evidence of parental ID (passport, marriage certificate usually suffices if in English) and Australian-standard passport photos of the child. Australia has unique requirements for this photo, which do not intersect with US passport photo standards (US: 51×51 mm. Australia: 35–40 mm wide by 45–50 mm high. Plus a bunch of other requirements on lighting, pose, and white balance. No such photo exists!). Until a couple of years ago, this necessitated finding an Australian Department of Foreign Affairs quasi-endorsed photographer in your area (within an hour or two) and paying a few hundred bucks for a scheduled photoshoot with your new baby. As of now, several online services will convert a sufficiently well-taken (there are about 10 separate requirements that rarely coincide in an uncoordinated baby) cell phone photo to the compliant form, print, and mail them to you (for a few hundred bucks).
  6. Earlier this year, the process for my newborn apparently regressed to the 1980s standard of the identity attestator being required to sign over the front of a compliant Australian photo, but later in the year, the process had reverted to the pre-COVID process of signing the back of the photo. I think this is related to the ImmiOnline-generated version of Form 1195 being different from the Home Affairs version, but I’m merely a highly capable mortal dad, some forms of knowledge are beyond me.
  7. Identity attestator? Simply find an unrelated non-cohabiting Australian citizen overseas to attest to your child’s identity. If you can’t (Chris Hemsworth was unavailable) then one of 39 approved professions can suffice provided they’re willing to field odd phone calls. For us, this has been our pediatrician, who has been very helpful and understanding, especially given that we get to go through this process roughly every 6 months with both our new babies and renewals for the older children. Simply use ImmiOnline’s form generator software (Zoomers, this is what the Internet was like back before we invented post-monospace fonts!) to fill the same fields over and over and over and over again, discover and include the pediatrician’s date of birth and evening phone number, deliver it to the doctor’s office with afore-mentioned compliant physical photographs, and drive back to collect it a few days later. Could Home Affairs auto-populate this form with the data you’ve already provided them a dozen times by now? Probably.
  8. All paperwork is in order (this is significantly more complicated than filing taxes), schedule an interview at your nearest Australian embassy or consulate. For me, this is fortunately in my same city, just a couple hours drive away in Century City. There are just a few places in the US which can do this, so if you live anywhere other than LA, Chicago, Honolulu, DC, Houston, NY, or SF, this step will involve at least two domestic flights. Even better, when my first child was born I discovered the consul was a guy I played in a jazz band with back in the early 2000s. Show up, hand over all the forms, utter the correct shibboleths, sign on the dotted line, pay additional fees, and if everything was done right, you soon receive a letter informing you that the department has accepted your child’s citizenship application, certificate to be sent shortly (except during COVID). If you make a mistake, various timelines begin to expire and you will probably have to redo photographs and attestations, for example. If you need a passport faster than 6 months, you probably have to bother the ambassador personally.
  9. Citizenship certificate in hand, return to Step 5 and repeat the entire process all over again (this time with DFAT rather than Home Affairs) (new photos, new attestation, new certified copies of various birth/death/marriage certificates) in a similar but not quite identical form (for example, different parts of each form have day/month/year vs month/day/year date conventions, and the officer can reject a form with any error or hand correction), eventually to be driven across the city to be submitted at the consulate, pay more fees, wait roughly 6 weeks, and passport. The passport will contain a photo of a newborn baby, even as your child is now crawling around and roughly three times the size.
  10. The fastest I have ever managed to complete this process is about 7 months, roughly 20 hours of dedicated effort, and about $1000 not including time lost.

This seems like quite a process!

Why?

Babies are relatively fungible, in that they can’t talk and are easily transported. Millions of people would like to move to Australia, and for most of them there is essentially no legal way to do this. So Australia, being a relatively small yet well-developed country with its own spin on sovereign functions, is under unusually high pressure by sophisticated fraudulent and/or criminal actors attempting to obtain Australian travel credentials illicitly. Trafficking is also a thing. I don’t really want to elaborate on this, but as a parent I am prepared to spend unreasonable resources to protect children – but I don’t believe the current process actually does this.

So I can understand why Home Affairs and DFAT would develop a laborious, high friction process that is intended to make it difficult to defraud the commonwealth and harm children.

The purpose of this post is to make explicit that what passed for a state-of-the-art identity verification process in ~1980 no longer passes muster and that new technology and standards provide simultaneously a far lower cost (encouraging lawful compliance) and far higher reliability (quelling unlawful activity) method for establishing who can travel to Australia and under what conditions.

Although I successfully navigated this process earlier this year for my newborn, I decided to raise concerns with the Department of Home Affairs, which owns Form 1195. What follows is my correspondence on this matter with the relevant authority in Australia, following Patrick McKenzie’s (patio11) standards of professional communication.

Casey Handmer

<redacted>, United States of America

15 May 2026

Mr Damien Kilner

First Assistant Secretary

Citizenship, Humanitarian, Family Visa Programs & Support

Department of Home Affairs

PO Box 25

Belconnen ACT 2616

Australia

Re: Form 1195 (Identity Declaration) — proposed modernisation, with cost-benefit analysis

Dear Mr Kilner,

I am writing this in the hope it reaches someone who has been waiting for an outside party to give them air cover to ship the obvious change. I have just completed Form 1195 for the fourth time, on this occasion for an infant, and the experience prompted the observations below. They are offered constructively. The Department employs thoughtful professionals; the form does not reflect their best work, and I suspect most of them know this.

What the form actually does, mechanically.

Form 1195 requires an applicant to (1) complete a PDF, (2) print it, (3) obtain a passport-sized chemical photograph adhering to a very particular set of requirements, (4) physically deliver both to a member of a prescribed occupation list, (5) have that person glue the photo to page 4 and sign across its front, (6) sign page 3 themselves, (7) scan the assembled document, and (8) upload the scan plus a separate digital copy of the same photograph through ImmiAccount. The instructions on pages 1–2 still describe a paperclip-and-sign-the-back workflow superseded by the current glue-and-sign-the-front workflow on pages 3–4. The form is, internally, two forms — one from before approximately 2022, one from after — laminated together. An applicant must read both and reconcile them at runtime.

What the form is supposed to do.

Bind an applicant’s identity to a photograph via attestation by a trustworthy third party who can be independently verified.

What the form actually achieves toward that goal.

Approximately nothing, in the current workflow. The signature-across-photo ritual is a 1970s tamper-evidence control designed for a document that would be physically inspected. Once scanned, the property it provides — that the photo cannot be substituted without destroying the signature — vanishes. Any reasonably motivated bad actor can composite a signature across an arbitrary photograph in any image editor in under two minutes. The Department receives a PDF; it has no way to distinguish a PDF assembled from a legitimately-signed physical artefact from one assembled digitally from any photograph the applicant chose.

The “qualified occupation” list (39 professions, ranging from pharmacists to veterinary surgeons to permanent Australian Postal Corporation employees with five years of service) provides somewhat more value, but only if downstream verification occurs. To the best of my knowledge, the Department does not call nominated declarants to verify the declaration in any but a vanishing fraction of cases. The signal is therefore the signatory’s name and license number, neither of which is cryptographically bound to anything.

Estimated cost of the status quo.

Australia processes on the order of 70,000 citizenship-by-descent and evidence-of-citizenship applications per year. Each requires Form 1195. Conservatively:

  • Applicant friction: 2–4 hours per application (locating eligible signatory, obtaining compliant photo, coordinating in-person meeting, scanning, uploading, frequently re-doing one or more steps after rejection). At a notional A$50/hour opportunity cost: A$100–200 per application, or A$7M–14M per year in deadweight loss to applicants.
  • Photo cost: ~A$100 per applicant; ~A$7M/year aggregate.
  • Signatory time: ~15 minutes per declaration by a working professional; ~17,500 professional-hours/year, or approximately A$1.5M in donated labour from doctors, lawyers, pharmacists, and police officers performing what is effectively an unverified ritual.
  • Departmental processing: time spent by case officers reviewing 1195s, requesting resubmissions for the predictable cluster of avoidable errors (declarant occupation invalid, signature in wrong location, photo non-compliant, date inconsistencies). Difficult to estimate externally, but plausibly A$5–10M/year in officer time.

Total deadweight cost to Australian society of running Form 1195 in its current form: conservatively A$15–25M per year.

Estimated fraud prevented.

Difficult to know precisely; the Department has the data, I do not. But two indicators are telling. First, Section 50 prosecutions for false statements on citizenship applications run at a handful per year nationally, against a base rate that is almost certainly orders of magnitude higher. Second, the controls are, as described above, cryptographically meaningless in the digital workflow. The reasonable prior is that Form 1195 in its current form prevents low-effort fraud (a teenager attempting to forge a citizenship claim with no resources) and prevents essentially no professionalised fraud (the actor category one actually cares about). The friction is therefore distributionally regressive: borne entirely by legitimate applicants, evaded trivially by sophisticated bad actors.

The obvious replacement.

Australia operates myID (formerly myGovID), an LOA3 identity-proofed credential issued by the ATO and accepted across Commonwealth services. The Department of Home Affairs is in the process of integrating with the broader Digital ID ecosystem under the Digital ID Act 2024. The infrastructure to do this correctly exists. It is being used for other things. It is not being used for Form 1195.

A modernised flow:

  1. Applicant authenticates to ImmiAccount via myID (Strong identity proofing).
  2. Applicant uploads a photograph taken in-session via the ImmiAccount mobile app, with liveness detection and EXIF preservation. (Adopt the technical standard already used by the Australian Passport Office for online renewals.)
  3. Applicant nominates an Australian-citizen (or suitably available alternative) attestor. Attestor receives an email, authenticates via their own myID, views the photograph, and digitally attests with a cryptographic signature bound to (applicant identity, photograph hash, attestation timestamp, attestor identity).
  4. The signed attestation is stored as a verifiable credential against the citizenship application.

No glue. No printing. No scanning. No 39-occupation list, because the constraint that the attestor be identity-proofed is now enforced by the credential rather than by self-declaration. No reconciliation of contradictory instructions across pages. No declarant date-ordering ambiguity. No photograph compliance rejections, because compliance is checked at capture.

Estimated cost to build.

Most components exist. The ImmiAccount platform exists, myID exists, in-app photo capture with liveness exists in the Passport Office’s tech stack, verifiable credentials infrastructure is being built out under the Digital ID Act. The work is integration, not invention. A realistic estimate: 6–12 months of engineering work at perhaps A$3–5M all-in, including the policy work to authorise digital attestation under the Australian Citizenship Act 2007. This process also exists as a commercial product provided by O(100) internet identity services, whose typical customer set includes banks verifying KYC/AML as part of their sign up flow, who face a similar depredatory attempted fraud pattern, high consequences of failure, and a customer base sensitive to unnecessary friction.

Payback period: under six months on deadweight loss alone. Fraud reduction is upside.

Anticipated objections.

“The Act requires a physical signature.” It does not. Section 50 prescribes consequences for false statements; it does not prescribe the medium. Numerous Commonwealth instruments accept digital signatures under the Electronic Transactions Act 1999. The constraint is administrative practice, not statute.

“Some applicants don’t have myID.” True today; the proportion is falling, and the modernised flow can preserve the legacy 1195 as a fallback for the narrow set of cases (typically: applicants outside Australia in jurisdictions where myID enrolment is impractical). The mistake is making the 99% case bear the cost of the 1% case.

“Cryptographic attestation will not feel like real verification to case officers.” This is the most honest objection. The answer is that the current feeling of verification is illusory; what looks like a signed photograph is a JPEG that was once signed and is now indistinguishable from a JPEG that was not. The modernised flow trades the feeling of verification for the fact of it.

“This is not on the work program.” Most of the value the Department could create in the next twelve months is not on the work program. Putting it there is the request.

Closing.

The Department’s citizenship-by-descent pathway is, mechanically, an important part of how Australia maintains its diaspora ties. It runs on a form that nobody who looks at it carefully can defend on its merits. The infrastructure to replace it exists. The legal authority to replace it exists. The professionals to design the replacement are already on staff. What is missing is institutional will to deprecate.

I would be glad to make myself available — at no cost, and not in any commercial capacity — to assist in any way that would be useful to officers undertaking this work. This includes technical review of design proposals, user-testing the replacement flow, or simply lending an outside voice to internal advocates.

Yours sincerely,

Casey Handmer

Personal details redacted

cc:

Ms Stephanie Foster PSM, Secretary, Department of Home Affairs, PO Box 25, Belconnen ACT 2616

Ms Clare Sharp PSM, Head of Immigration, Department of Home Affairs, PO Box 25, Belconnen ACT 2616

Mr Michael Peterer, A/g Assistant Secretary, Citizenship & Humanitarian Policy, Department of Home Affairs, PO Box 25, Belconnen ACT 2616

Ms Jennifer Thwaites, A/g Assistant Secretary, Visa, Citizenship & Digital Systems, Department of Home Affairs, PO Box 25, Belconnen ACT 2616

The Hon Julian Hill MP, Assistant Minister for Citizenship, Customs and Multicultural Affairs, PO Box 6022, House of Representatives, Parliament House, Canberra ACT 2600

Four and a half months later, the Department replied. In short: thanks, noted, there is no funding available to change the form, and it may come up in a future review.

I obviously cannot comment on the internal costs of running Australia’s online and physical document handling system, but it’s evidently not nothing. Equally evidently, it has remained untouched by the same process improvement effort that has effectively reformed, for example, licensing for drivers at the state level. The result is a system that bleeds cash, bleeds good will, actively deters legitimate diaspora from retaining ties with the old country while doing nothing to stop anyone sophisticated enough to ask an AI to edit a JPEG. The status quo cannot persist indefinitely. It is a foregone conclusion that Home Affairs will have to update its processes sooner rather than later. Their answer: no funding. By my estimate the fix costs A$3–5M, once, and saves Australians A$6–30M every year, depending on volume. Payback inside a year. Stop complaining about budgeting and find the money!

Unbelievably, I’m now going through this entire process all over again as my six year old, born during COVID, was granted Australian citizenship by descent and an Australian passport (on the strength of the letter informing us of a positive determination on citizenship, with a temporary document number), but her certificate of citizenship was never issued (due to COVID WFH stuff, I think), making it impossible to renew her passport. There is, of course, a bureaucratic procedure to issue the certificate, which is even more clunky, onerous, and ultimately ineffective than just applying for a new passport, rather than renewing. For example, the letter I received at my address informing me that my child had been issued citizenship and I could request a certificate was not sufficient evidence of my home address, which was required in order to request the certificate. The online application flow to receive the certificate had more requirements than the citizenship application or the passport application.

Even with this certificate in hand, I have to once again go through the Form 1195 charade, hassle our pediatrician, drive across the city to lodge documents, to renew a passport. She’s a dual citizen, but her US passport is no use here: Australia won’t issue a visa to an Australian citizen, so the only lawful way for her to enter Australia is on an Australian passport. Which, by golly, they make insanely hard to get!

I might add here that none of the airlines that operate on the LA-Sydney route (Delta, United, Qantas…) are set up to handle children with dual citizenships so literally every time we travel to Australia we get to sit in a line for hours with desperate children while some haggard customer support representative attempts to run the SOP on this evidently vanishingly rare corner case, which involves updating a database that links the two passports together. Given that I’m about to renew the six year old’s Australian passport, I will shortly get to do this for the sixth or seventh time.

What I’m trying to say is this. It’s 2026. We have reusable rockets, flying cars, and machine superintelligence. It should not be this hard for an Australian citizen to take a commercial flight to Australia.

To end this post on a happy note (after all, children are great!) let us speculate about what a radically excellent product would look like in this space.

The Australian government already keeps various lists of the diaspora. There are tens of thousands of Australians in the Bay Area alone. Not all of them work for Anthropic, though you could be forgiven for thinking so. For example, I get helpful letters from various Australian government agencies about driver’s licenses, elections, student loans, etc. By all means, allow Australians overseas to opt out, but it’s a two line cron job to discover if your foreign Australian has had a baby/future potential taxpayer.

Maybe I’ll go on breeding for long enough that when my Nth baby arrives, I get a card in the mail from Home Affairs saying “Congratulations on your new baby! When you have a moment, scan this QR code to upload the birth certificate and send us a photo. Since you’ve been in our database since birth, we know who you are and the baby’s passport plus a stuffed koala is on the way. Enjoy this special time!”

Follow Up About Political Giving

Following my morning post about the Democratic political contribution infrastructure, I had a number of TPM Readers write in saying, in so many words, No! You’re wrong. People are totally burnt out about the annoying emails. I want to point out that I said the same thing, how abusive and stupid and annoying the avalanche of emails is. What I noted is a sort of admission against interest, which is that the haul from online small donor giving keeps rising. So at least at the aggregate level, effective burnout, actually seeing contributions decline, is not something we’re seeing. It may be around the corner. And we can and should do better. But on this acid test, the money keeps rolling in. And that’s clearly a big reason why it continues.

In any case, the reflexive and sometimes vituperative responses make the larger point: people hate these emails! We all know this and experience it. It’s almost a core experience of being a Democrat in early 21st century. In a way it’s built into the architecture of the internet itself. Even though sending emails and texts costs money. The effective cost-per-blast is still extraordinarily low. In a way it’s an analog to the low barriers to entry in digital publishing.

My personal experience of this is kind of unique. I constantly have to unsubscribe from things because people share my emails a lot. But I also make no political contributions. (I’ve made two contributions in the last 25 years — one to the DNC about 20 years ago and a second in 2025 to a candidate for a county council. I made an exception because it seemed so distant from the broader political conversation.) So I’m sort of a bystander to the process rather than a participant. But I’m probably inundated by the emails as much as anyone because of the mailing lists I end up on.

I get it. It’s not only annoying. It reaches a kind of predatory self-parody.

Sunnny

My thanks to Sunnny for sponsoring last week at DF. Sunnny’s pitch to B2B companies is simple: you store valuable customer information across a myriad of systems, making it hard to get a simple overview. Sunnny consolidates your customer data, cleans it, resolves identities, identifies relationships, and presents it neatly for you, your team, and your AI model.

Early access is open now.

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Precipitation in the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies; Bering Sea Storm in Alaska