June 11, 2026

At 8:22 this morning, Trump posted on social media: “The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT. At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America.”

Later, he called into the Fox News Channel to say: “Look, my preference has always been take Kharg Island…. I don’t know that America has the stomach for it, to be honest with you. You know, make a fortune, but I don’t know that America has the stomach, I think they’d like to see us come home, but we did it with Venezuela, Venezuela has worked out great for everybody. We’ve taken millions and millions of barrels of oil out of Venezuela. We brought them to Houston and various other places. Louisiana, uh, where, where, you know, refineries that we have that are incredible. They’re going 24 hours a day. Making a fortune, and, um, you know, I like that in this case, too, but I’m not sure that America has a long time, you know, it’s, uh, it’s a little longer process. Something that’s a guarantee if I want to do it…. I am not sure the country has the appetite for it.”

There’s a lot in this statement, even aside from the fact that Trump still has not gotten congressional approval for his actions in Iran, although the 60-day time limit for exercising military action against an “imminent threat” provided by the 1973 War Powers Act expired on May 1.

Aside from that—which is huge—experts assess that taking Kharg Island, an island in the Persian Gulf that acts as the hub of Iran’s oil exporting sector, would require sending in ground troops. That idea is, indeed, extraordinarily unpopular, even for a war that has been unpopular since it began and is becoming more unpopular.

But, as John Knefel of Media Matters noted Tuesday, Fox News hosts are urging Trump to increase U.S. military involvement in Iran, claiming that it will take only two weeks to win a decisive military victory.

In this morning’s conversation with Trump, host Ainsley Earhardt boosted Trump’s claims that he has destroyed Iran’s military, and then told him that when Iran sends missiles at U.S. targets, “we have to fight back. So when you say you don’t think America has the appetite to do what we’re seeing tonight, I think we do.”

Ron Filipkowski of MeidasNews reacted to Trump’s post by noting, “Normally you wouldn’t increase the likelihood of US casualties by announcing something like this ahead of time, unless you are bluffing to use it as a negotiating ploy, you are stupid, you don’t really care about the troops, or all three.”

Meanwhile, Iranian media affiliated with the state says that Iran is now including in its list of potential military targets “all interests associated with the economic holdings managed by Elon Musk in West Asia, including those located in Arab countries and the occupied territories,” in retaliation for the U.S. use of Musk’s Starlink and X to target Iran. It noted that Starlink has ground stations in Israel, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, while Abu Dhabi investment funds support Space X infrastructure.

Trump also told the Fox News Channel hosts that Iran has “no defense…. The only thing they have is fake news…. They’re dying to make a deal. They want to make a deal so badly…. They’re really in submission. They just don’t know it yet.”

Trump’s comparison of Iran to Venezuela is also important. Clearly, he intended his strike on Iran to mimic January’s rapid strike on Venezuela that enabled the U.S. to grab Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, leaving Maduro’s second-in-command Delcy Rodríguez to run the country. Rodríguez has been willing to do what the Trump administration asks, and the Trump administration has eased sanctions against her, allowing her to work with U.S. investors in Venezuela’s oil sector. Late last month, Joshua Goodman, Alanna Durkin Richer, and Jim Mustian of PBS reported that the Trump administration quietly told federal prosecutors in Miami to back off on long-standing criminal investigations of Rodríguez for drug trafficking.

Although Venezuela’s high court ordered that Rodríguez could fill Maduro’s position for only ninety days, there is no sign that elections are happening any time soon.

Instead, as Trump suggested this morning, the U.S. appears to be controlling Venezuela’s oil exports. Sanctions expert Roxanna Vigil of the Council on Foreign Relations reported on June 3 that “almost one hundred million barrels of oil worth an estimated $8 billion have flowed through a process marked by no transparency and minimal oversight.” Vigil notes that the Trump administration maintains this arrangement benefits both countries, but “it has not publicly disclosed how much Venezuelan oil it has sold, how much revenue it has collected, or how it has used those funds.”

In January, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress that the U.S. was using a “short-term” account in Qatar and that the administration would provide an audit of that account, but it has not done so, declining to report “how the funds were spent or what safeguards were in place to prevent corruption and money laundering.” Vigil adds: “The administration has also not released the written agreements it has entered into with the Venezuelan government, traders, buyers, banks, and other entities involved in the process.”

Vigil notes that this hidden arrangement involves not just oil, but also gold and other mineral exports.

Democratic lawmakers have sent a formal request to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) asking for an audit of the system and have also introduced legislation, the Venezuela Oil Proceeds Transparency Act, to require an independent GAO audit, but so far it has not passed in either Republican-dominated chamber of Congress.

Kevin Liptak, Natasha Bertrand, and Alayna Treene of CNN reported today that Trump is furious that the U.S. media and Iranian officials don’t view U.S. military action against Iran as powerful enough, and his threats now are designed to force Iranian leaders into a deal.

Dasha Burns and Adam Wren of Politico reported today that the mood inside the White House is “angry, insular, grievance-driven and increasingly shaped by a group of loyalists with direct access to the president.” Trump’s determination to force Republicans to do his bidding shows not just in his extreme demands last night that the Republicans pass an additional $350 billion for his military buildup and the SAVE America Act to suppress voting, but also in his insistence on making loyalist Bill Pulte acting director of national intelligence for the time period spanning the 2026 midterms.

Pulte has no experience with national intelligence, which the law requires for a director, but he does have a track record of weaponizing the government to attack Trump’s political opponents. Putting him into the DNI position would enable him to use information from the nation’s eighteen intelligence agencies not to protect Americans from foreign threats, but to undermine Trump’s political opposition.

Lawmakers are facing a deadline to renew the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which expires tomorrow, but critics are concerned that the law currently does not have sufficient safeguards to protect American citizens. Putting Pulte in charge of it exacerbated their concerns, and Republicans asked Trump to nominate a permanent DNI rather than try to put Pulte in as an acting DNI. Instead, he doubled down on Pulte.

A MAGA operative close to the White House told Burns and Wren that as opposition to his slush fund, funding for his ballroom, and resistance to his demands for new laws mounts, Trump is “increasingly frustrated with everyone, from his own team to the Senate…. He’s pissed, and people are not recognizing the level of pissed that he is,” the operative said. “He does not like being put in a box,” the operative told Burns and Wren. “When you put him in a box, then Trump’s going to blow the box up.”

Today nineteen Republicans joined all but seven Democrats to reject a measure to extend FISA, suggesting they did not trust Pulte to oversee the program. Under the fast track House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) used, the measure would have required two thirds of Congress to agree to it, but it failed by 218 to 198, not even reaching a simple majority.

Both CNN and the Washington Post reported today that oil executives have warned the White House that U.S. oil reserves, which they have been releasing to keep oil prices down, are running dangerously low, despite Trump’s boast that Venezuelan oil is flowing through the U.S. They say they expect prices to soar just as peak summer travel season kicks in.

This afternoon, Trump’s social media account posted: “Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized—Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”

Later, Trump told reporters: “The strait is open. But the straits have been open for a number of months already and you just didn’t know about it.” This evening, Boston Globe columnist Renée Graham noted a CNN chyron that read: “TRUMP CANCELS STRIKES, CLAIMING FOR 39TH TIME THAT A DEAL IS NEAR.”

This afternoon, Trump said he would nominate Walter Joseph “Jay” Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, to become the next director of national intelligence. Like Pulte, Clayton lacks national security experience. But he has another attribute that might be attractive to Trump: he has been part of the slow-walking of the release of the Epstein files.

Notes:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/most-americans-say-the-iran-war-is-bad-for-america/

https://www.mediamatters.org/us-iran-relations/fox-news-selling-trump-fantasy-he-could-defeat-iran-two-weeks

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/ap-trump-administration-prosecutors-venezuela-leader-rodriguez/

https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-edmundo-gonzalez-elections-delcy-df17266e6fca62750de600609b03ebe1

https://casten.house.gov/media/press-releases/casten-castro-propose-measure-to-investigate-trumps-questionable-handling-of-venezuelan-oil-money

https://castro.house.gov/imo/media/doc/4172026gaoletteronrequestingauditofvenezuelafund.pdf

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/3838

https://www.cfr.org/articles/the-u-s-took-over-venezuelas-oil-industry-where-has-all-the-money-gone

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/11/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel-hnk?post-id=cmq9nlrhr00013b6tt2zqicyy

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/06/11/knives-are-out-inside-the-white-house-00958341

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/11/spy-law-on-track-to-lapse-after-house-rejects-extension-00958420

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/11/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel-hnk?post-id=cmq9qsxrm00003b6t92eidfls

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/06/11/oil-executives-warn-white-house-that-gas-prices-will-get-worse/

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/15/politics/jay-clayton-sdny-epstein-investigation

https://mace.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-nancy-mace-demands-unredacted-epstein-co-conspirator-memorandum-southern

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-justice-department-epstein-release-less-than-one-percent-letter/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/11/jay-clayton-dni-profile

Trumpstruth.org:

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X:

EnglishFars/status/2065072319190470762

Bluesky:

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Politics Chat, June 11, 2026

Politics Chat, June 11, 2026

Barbara McQuade | American Conversations

Friday 12 June 1663

Up and my office, there conning my measuring Ruler, which I shall grow a master of in a very little time. At noon to the Exchange and so home to dinner, and abroad with my wife by water to the Royall Theatre; and there saw “The Committee,” a merry but indifferent play, only Lacey’s part, an Irish footman, is beyond imagination. Here I saw my Lord Falconbridge, and his Lady, my Lady Mary Cromwell, who looks as well as I have known her, and well clad; but when the House began to fill she put on her vizard, and so kept it on all the play; which of late is become a great fashion among the ladies, which hides their whole face.

So to the Exchange, to buy things with my wife; among others, a vizard for herself. And so by water home and to my office to do a little business, and so to see Sir W. Pen, but being going to bed and not well I could not see him. So home and to supper and bed, being mightily troubled all night and next morning with the palate of my mouth being down from some cold I took to-day sitting sweating in the playhouse, and the wind blowing through the windows upon my head.

Read the annotations

Plate Flip

It's great for exfoliating your skin, bones, houses, cities, landscape, etc.

The European Commission Response to Siri AI and the DMA

Thomas Regnier, spokesperson for the European Commission, in a statement posted to LinkedIn (with edited video, if you’d like to watch him read parts aloud):

What is the true story behind Apple’s decision not to roll out “Siri AI” in the EU?

This decision is Apple’s and Apple’s only.

Because absolutely nothing in the DMA prohibits Apple from rolling out new features in the EU.

Yes, the European Commission and Apple had a few contacts on “Siri AI”.

But instead of offering a compliant solution, Apple asked to be exempted from its interoperability obligations under the DMA — and this for 18 months.

That’s not an option. EU rules are non negotiable.

And it would mean that no AI agent other than “Siri AI” could be chosen by EU consumers.

Apple, like any other gatekeeper, cannot close the market. The DMA is very clear about that.

Our developers have the right to compete. And our consumers the right to choose.

Those who want to keep using Apple products in their current form can of course do it.

But for those who want to use another AI agent, the DMA will give them the possibility to do so.

Why this was posted to LinkedIn and not on the EC’s own press website is as inexplicable Regnier’s bizarre choice to spread 14 short sentences across 10 paragraphs. I quoted the entirety of the statement nonetheless, to give the EC their full say. I’ll let it speak for itself in this post, but this does not contradict Apple’s position and statements in any way.

 ★ 

Collections: Pre-Modern Armies for Worldbuilders, Part IIa: Mobilization without Administration

This is the second part (I, IIa) of our honestly-who-knows-how-many part series laying out some general guidelines for how pre-modern armies are recruited, raised, equipped and paid. While I hope this will be of great interest to the history nerds out there, I’ve opted to structure this specifically as a service for the worldbuilders out there, making useful rules of thumb for imagining fantastical societies.

Last week, we laid out some basic groundwork questions for our underlying society and then discussed what I’ve called recruitment principles – the social justifications for military service. And as we saw, some of those principles are going to fit some societies a lot better than others: a society’s recruitment principles (remember, they may use different principles for different groups!) are generally going to map fairly directly onto the society’s own peacetime organization.

That said while those principles provide the justification to get and keep fighters under arms, what they do not do is actually organize the process – what we might call the mobilization process. Mobilization processes are often a step in the road to war that are glided over in relative silence in both historical treatments of real events and speculative fiction about made up wars, but it turns out that the process of getting thousands of men from their homes to a muster point, organized and ready to fight is a very complex one. And, as we’ll see the recruitment principle often heavily impacts the mobilization method and both are tied deeply into underlying social structures.

So that’s what we’re going to look at today: how do you get these men from their homes to the army, sort them into units and make sure they have the equipment they need to fight. As we’ll see, the primary problem pre-modern polities (states and non-states alike) face in doing this is managing such a complex process with such a limited administrative apparatus.

Now for both length and time (this post alone is swiftly approaching 6,000 words) I’ve had to split this up, so this week we’re going to look at the shape of the problem and the two most minimalistic approaches to the problem: ‘self-recruitment’ (entitlement-based recruitment where most of the burden is shifted to the men serving) and retinue-of-retinue systems (where recruit is done by Big Men in a non-state system). The next week we’ll look at the three other models I have in mind: brigading households together to provide recruits, shifting the adminsitrative burden onto military contractors and finally professional soldiers of both the volunteer and compelled varieties.

But first, as always, recruiting and maintaining large pre-modern armies is expensive! Much like many of those pre-modern armies, this project is supported by devolving the costs of my ruinous book-buying habit on to recruits readers. You can help by spreading the word to new readers and by supporting this project over at Patreon. If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).

(Bibliography Note: What I am presenting here is a series of models, which is to say simplified classifications of more complex systems. For each model then, I do generally have one or two specific core systems (that is, specific historical mobilization systems) in mind, with the idea that the model in turn encompasses more systems than just those. Nevertheless, I want the reader to recognize the generalization going on here! The ‘core’ systems for each model and some further reading on them are as follows. For the ‘self-recruitment’ model, my core systems here are the Middle Roman Republic and classical Greek poleis armies ; I also reference the late medieval town militias of the low countries and their Schuttersgilde, on which see L. Crombie, Archery and Crossbow Guilds in Medieval Flanders, 1300-1500 (2016). For Big-Men based recruitment, my core models are pre-Roman Gaul and post-Carolingian France (on the latter, see J.F. Verbruggen, The Art of Warfare in Western Europe During the Middle Ages (1954) and C. Rogers, Soldiers’ Lives Through History: The Middle Ages (2007); note also for England D. Simpkin, The English Aristocracy at War: From the Welsh Wars of Edward I to the Battle of Bannockburn (2008). For the brigaded-households-and-local-officials model, I was thinking especially in terms of the Anglo-Saxon fyrd and the Carolingian levy system; on the latter see B. Bachrach, Early Carolingian Warfare: Prelude to Empire (2001) and G. Halsall, Warfare and Society in the Barbarian West 450-900 (2003). For the ‘contractors’ model, I was thinking very much of early modern European armies, on which see inter alia G. Parker, The Army of Flanders and the Spanish Road, 1567-1659: The Logistics of Spanish Victory and Defeat in the Low Countries’ Wars (1972, 2nd ed. 2004) and L. Staiano-Daniels’ The War People: A Social History of Common Soldiers during the Era of the Thirty Years War (2024). For ‘professionals and prisoners’ as a model I was thinking in terms of the Roman army of the early and high imperial period and (especially for the prisoners bit) the army of the Song Dynasty; on the latter see E. Alyagon, Inked: Tattooed Soldiers and the Song Empire’s Penal Military Complex (2023).

I encourage worldbuilders using this series, once they’ve figured out what sort of system their fictional society is likely to have, to read one or more books focused on the details of specific systems in that category to get a sense of how they function at more detail than the generalizations here.)

The Shape of the Problem

I want to start by getting a sense of the shape and scale of the coordination problem here. Pre-modern field armies vary in size but they typically start in the high single-digit thousands (e.g. ~8,000 English at Agincourt) and quickly move into the low tens of thousands. At least in the broader Mediterranean world, logistical limits tend to cause armies to ‘cap out’ between 80,000 and 100,000, though such large armies cannot be maintained in once place for very long without riverine or sea-based logistics. And that’s the number of combat effectives; we ought to assume at least something like 1 non-combatant per every 4 combatants (often more). A standard Roman field army in the Middle Republic was right around 20,000 soldiers, with probably 5,000 (or more) non-combatants) and something like 10,000 animals split more-or-less evenly between mules and horses.

Now in a history textbook, the process of gathering such an army is often just glossed over with, ‘so and so raised an army.’ And fair enough – our sources generally treat the raising of an army like that too. Livy, for instance, writing about the years from 218 to 167, generally glosses over the annual raising of Rome’s armies in just a few sentences, noting the total Roman dispositions for that year (though interestingly, Polybius, writing for a non-Roman audience, describes the process in depth). Our sources do this because they assume their readers largely know what the process of raising an army looks like because these societies do that regularly.

Fictional works often do the same: the war begins and the king dramatically declares, “raise the army!” or “call the banners!” and then it mostly just happens. Maybe there is something in there about sending messages.

But consider the complexity of the operation here: you need tens of thousands of men who are currently living in their homes (without access to any kind of modern rapid or mass communication) to find out they have been selected (remember, many of them may not be able to read and you do not have a postal system anyway), then to transit to a muster point, acquire their arms, armor and other equipment (which they may not already have!), divide into workable units for command and organization, have leaders selected and then pitch the army’s first camp.

If you have ever organized so much as a small sports club, MMO guild or RPG group, I imagine you are right now breaking into a cold sweat at the idea of trying to coordinate tens of thousands of people for something like that. Crucially many of whom probably do not want to be there and will thus look for any excuse to be absent or late.

As noted, a lot of speculative fiction just sort of lets this process work ‘off screen’ so to speak. After that, the next most common assumption is to have the process work the way a modern administrative state would do mobilization: either by mass hiring volunteer professionals (we’ll get to how a pre-modern state does that below) or with mass conscription. So you have figures that resemble recruiting officers walking into villages with lists of names of fellows that are to be conscripted, implying – among other things – that the kingdom is keeping a full and accurate name-by-name census of the entire male population. Very few pre-modern states were capable of this – the fact that Rome did this for much of Italy during the Republic was legitimately impressive to later rulers! – and obviously non-state polities (including vassalage based ones) aren’t going to be able to do this. The parish registers that represent the very beginnings of modern European census systems mostly date to the early modern period (though there were older systems, as we’ll see below, that replicated parts of this approach).

That scenario also assumes the state is maintaining conscription officers. As we’ll see, there might be people in that role (though sometimes not!), but large numbers of full-time recruiters distributed evenly across a large kingdom was typically a bureaucratic demand most pre-modern societies simply could not meet. Remember, in societies where upwards of 90% of the population is engaged in subsistence, the supply of highly literate bureaucrats is very limited. Instead pre-modern societies have to use the social structures and officials they have to facilitate mobilization – unlike a modern state, they generally cannot afford to create a parallel bureaucracy for the purpose.

Finally and crucially centralized conscription assumes the state is supplying the weapons. I think many modern readers finds this surprising, but it is worth stressing: it is quite unusual for pre-modern states to directly supply arms and armor for most of their armies. We’ll loop back around to this problem from another direction next week when we talk about paying for all of this, but the financial and more importantly administrative demands of full state supply of equipment exceeds the capability of most pre-modern states (and functionally all pre-modern non-state polities).

Consider, for instance, what it would mean to manage state issue for an army of 40,000 men: 40,000 shields, spears, and swords, along with cuirasses and helmets, the latter two complicated by the fact that they have to fit the fellows in question. Taking something like the Macedonian phalangite’s kit (on the low-end of labor intensity for a heavy infantryman), that’s probably a couple thousand hours of labor time per man (so c. 80 million labor-hours total),1 which then needs to be stored. The sarisae (or if you prefer a smaller weapon, spears) if lined up standing upright in racks might run in a single row some 2000 meters, side to side. In short you’d need enormous centralized storage and production facilities which would need to be built, maintained and guarded. Someone would need to regularly inventory all of that.

Via Wikipedia, an imagine of an armory for the Swiss Guard. By my count, including the posts that do not have a cuirass on them, there are cuirasses here for about 40 soldiers, so if you want to imagine fitting out an entire field army (rather than the mere 135 members of the Swiss Guard) you’d want to imagine several hundred times this quantity of armor. Alexander the Great, for instance, had 24,000 heavy infantry and 5,100 heavy cavalry at the Battle of Issus (333); imagine a room not with 40 cuirasses as here but 29,000.

It’s clear that some pre-modern states did some of that! During the Imperial period, some Roman equipment was state issued and it seems like Carthage’s North African and citizen troops may have been equipped out of state-run armories. Wealthy European medieval rulers might likewise display their wealth by equipping their retinue in their own livery out of a personal armory, though most soldiers were not so equipped. But such centralized systems tend to be both rare and relatively limited. By and large the only way most pre-modern polities could handle the administrative and financial strain of equipping their armies was to devolve the costs, either to individual soldiers or local communities or smaller aristocrats. They simply lacked either the revenues of the administration to do this centrally.

In short, the kind of full bureaucratic centralization of this process is rarely possible, especially for large states covering a lot of territory. Instead, as we’ll see, the key to effective recruitment is almost always some kind of devolution or fragmentation, pushing the demands of organization and bureaucracy downward away from the central government, where the scope of the problem is more manageable.

So let’s look at some ‘model’ versions of historical systems and see how they work. I should stress these are models, which is to say idealized and simplified. Any kind of ‘general history’ of the sort I am doing here incurs that cost and so I want to note that up front. Now these models are based on something – in each case I typically have a system I know at least reasonably well in mind as the ‘core’ of the conceptual model with a mind towards other systems that also fit. Nevertheless, each of those systems would demand a monograph treatment to fully discuss and the model covers multiple systems. So please keep in mind if you want to understand these systems in full detail, you need to read on them (bibliography above).

At the same time, also note how different models seem to fit more easily into different recruitment principles which in turn fit differently into different kinds of societies and you start to get a sense of how the structure of the underlying society in a lot of cases is going to dictate – or at least heavily influence – what systems are used to raise armies.

In practice, each of these systems is providing an answer to who handles the administrative demands of assembling and equipping large numbers of men: do you have the recruits do it themselves? Do you have local aristocrats do it? Do you have local officials do it? Or do you employ private contractors?

Self-Mobilization

We can start with perhaps the easiest model: what if our soldiers recruited themselves?

We’ve actually discussed one of these sorts of systems in depth: the Roman dilectus. On the one hand, military conscription in the Roman Republic was legally mandatory, with severe punishments for draft dodging. On the other hand, there was very little enforcement capacity and Roman citizens were expected to navigate the system themselves. Readers are invited to read the linked post above for the details, but in short the process went thusly: near the start of every year the Republic raised new armies and refilled old ones (this could also be done mid-year on an emergency basis). Citizens of military age were required to present themselves in Rome for the selection process (called the dilectus), where officials (the military tribunes) would call up each of Rome’s voting tribes one by one and then call out the names of the recruits who would then take the military oath.

Then recruits were told to assemble on another day to be split into units before being sent home to get the weapons their assignment demanded, before finally being expected to present themselves one last time on the appointed muster date when the army pitches its first camp and fully organizes as an army. And that process is based on the Roman census (which lists, by tribe, everyone eligible for service and their age and property (which determines how they serve)), which is self-reported.

So the system largely relies on individual Romans doing most of the world: self-reporting for the census, then proactively showing up to the dilectus, then attending the division into units, then getting their own equipment, then showing up at the final muster.

Via Wikipedia, a detail from the so-called Altar of Domitius Ahenobarbus showing a Roman census procedure (though the exact type of procedure is unclear – both the mustering out of an army or the formation of a colony have been suggested, among others). The fellow in the chair is likely one of the censors (officials elected every five years to perform a census) recording the property of the fellow with the wax tablet (presumably a record of his property he’s sharing).
The Roman census worked functionally on the honor system. What encouraged Romans not to under-report their wealth was the strong social status tied to wealth holding and property: to under-report your property to try to dodge military service meant accepting the shame of being poor in front of friends and neighbors and it also meant diminished political voice.

The Roman system is hardly the only one to work like this: the impression we get, for instance, of polis hoplite armies is that they are relatively similar: when the assembly votes for war, the citizenry (who are both the assembly and the hoplites) are expected to arm themselves, gather by census unit (sometimes tribe (phyle) or neighborhood (deme)) and join the muster largely on their own initiative. In both cases there are draconian penalties for failure to join the muster, but often with very limited enforcement mechanisms: the system can enforce penalties against one or two shirkers, but not against a coordinated wave of draft resistance among the citizenry. That’s what makes the vote in the assembly so important: by having a majority of the citizenry decide for war in the first place, it ensures ample public support for the self-recruitment that needs to follow.

Now naturally, this is a great system if you can use it: minimal bureaucratic overhead, easy to administer (because it administers itself) and you have a lot of flexibility in how to structure the units you recruit, being able to either split them up by neighborhoods to put neighbors next to each other for greater cohesion (the typical Greek approach) or splitting them into units of regular size for tactical convenience (the Roman, but also Macedonian and Spartan approach).

What I want to note of course is that most societies cannot raise armies this way. I focus here of course on Greek and Roman armies raised in this manner, but you also see this sort of self-recruitment in the armies of medieval town and Italian communes. You may immediately notice some commonalities: these are urban societies, generally structured around a single major city center. They’re also relatively small (except for the Roman Republic, which is exceptional in pulling off this kind of system at scale).

That small size matters because this system relies – because it lacks lots of enforcement officers – on social peer pressure to get recruits to show up. Men show up to the muster because they would be ashamed not to, which only works if they know their friends, family and neighbors will notice their absence and that only works in a fairly small community. The larger the community, the less those ties work.

Finally, these fellows can arm themselves, which means they have a certain amount of personal property, wealth and income. Now it isn’t surprising that aristocrats might be able to do that, but we’re talking about recruitment below the level of the aristocracy – aristocrats alone are generally not enough to build an army around. So these societies also need to have a large propertied class below the aristocracy who nevertheless can defend their wealth (defend in the sense that they can keep from having it all taxed away, extracted with rents and so on – they have enough political power to resist the encroachment by the elite). That can mean a large body of freeholding farmers (the bulk of the citizens of the Roman Republic, or Greek poleis), or it can mean an urban population of skilled workers and artisans (the burghers of many medieval towns and communes) or some mix of the two.

But perhaps most importantly these are all entitlement principle recruitment systems. Systems of self-recruitment like this work because military service is tightly bound to membership in the community which comes with political rights one of which is some kind of right to decide on if the community goes to war or not (that may be a counted vote, but it may also be a collective affirmation, the sort of thing where the sources will say, “and then the men of [town] said with one voice, “Yes!”). As you may imagine in many political systems, the authorities (like a king) are not going to be willing to devolve that kind of political power, even if it lets them raise armies really efficiently.

Notice how political power plays two roles here: it provides the entitlement principle incentive to get these guys into the army but it is also how they ‘defend’ their wealth from the aristocrats which gives them the spare surplus income to afford weapons and armor. In short, in these entitlement system regimes, the ‘middle’ of society (it isn’t quite right to call them a middle class) has enough political power to limit extraction which both enables them to serve (because they can afford the gear, typically heavy infantry gear) but also incentivizes service because military service is bound up with that political power: they fight because they vote and they vote because they fight.

It’s worth noting, societies with these forms of militaries generally have few ‘full time’ soldiers hanging around. MMORPGs and fantasy worlds alike love their ‘local village guards,’ but these societies are calling up the citizen-militia to deal with specific problems on an ad hoc basis. There may be some sort of permanent order-keeping force (Classical Athens had its enslaved Scythian bowmen) or part-time volunteer city watch (one of the roles of the Schuttersgilde in the towns of the Low Countries), but for the most part a lot of the ‘law and order’ functions we’d expect police to perform here are going to be performed by the citizens, who after all can become the army at pretty short notice.

So when we’re thinking self-recruitment, we’re thinking generally entitlement based systems which are typically city-states (or the Roman Republic) which can rely on peer pressure to get men to show up to the muster because of their small, tight-knit citizen bodies (or small tight-knit sub-units, like those demes or – for the Romans – the tribes (tribus)) and which devolve a fair amount of political power to the infantry class that makes up the bulk of their armies (which is to say, to the freeholding farmer class below the aristocracy) who are thus able to preserve enough personal wealth to arm themselves. The small community element also makes the necessary record keeping – keeping track of who is a full member of the community and required to serve – more manageable.

Needless to say, these sorts of citizen communities are not the most common type and tend to remain small. The Roman Republic is astoundingly unusual in being a super-duper-jumbo version of this kind of community and there is a whole chapter in Of Arms and Men (forthcoming) on how exactly they managed that. For the most part, this sort of self-organizing system tends to be limited to small, fairly tight-knit urban communities that either have states or are fairly close to developing them.

Aristocrats, Clients and Retinues

Another option, particularly for non-state societies – we may include here ‘tribal’ agrarian polities, vassalage-based polities and nomadic pastoralists, inter alia – is to channel recruitment through local aristocrats via their clients and retinues. We’ve discussed forms of this recruitment, both ancient and medieval, in more depth before as well.

The key structure here are the big men. For pastoral societies, someone (or at least, some family) generally owns the largest herds of animals and thus wields outsized wealth and influence in the community. For agrarian societies, the Big Man is a ubiquitous fixture of the countryside – the large landowner with the big farms upon whom the smaller farmers rely for access to farming capital and for assistance in bad years (and who in turn often exploits those small farmers). These big men can organize local production (through taxes and rents), they can enforce laws and social order, they can provide a buffer for local subsistence and – crucially for us – they can wield armed force. In short the Big Man can more or less do many of the things a state would do, on a smaller scale (albeit they’re going to do these things in their own interest, which may not be the outcome you want!).

Put another way: these polities are defined by the fragmentation of force – by the existence of Big Men who can wield substantial legitimate military force on their own – and so are both encouraged and often compelled to raise force through those Big Men. However for a ruler or ruling institution (like an aristocratic council) that lacks a bureaucracy or much administrative capacity, these Big Men offer a substantial advantage in that they are few enough for that central institution to have personal relationships with all of them. In essence, it is possible (and indeed important) for the king or tribal war chief to personally know all of the biggest Big Men in the kingdom and so to be able to call upon them personally in the event that he needs an army. For large polities, that system can nest: the king has his vassals, who have their own vassals, who have their own vassals – essentially the Biggest Man knows all of the Bigger Men who each know their own troupe of Big Men.

A wonderful map of political fragmentation in the Kingdom of France by 987, made by Gabe Moss, which is useful for our purposes as a map of the ‘Bigger Men’ who acted as the immediate vassals of the King of France (here, Hugh Capet). Each of these ‘Bigger Men’ will have had many ‘Big Men’ underneath them, the whole system designed to fragment the burden of administration until it became manageable for the households of individual ‘Big Men.’

In these sorts of societies, the Big Man’s status as a Big Man is in part predicated on his independent ability to wield force – note that Big Men in state societies are generally shorn of this and are often more political-economic figures than military ones – and so he maintains his personal supply of force on his own initiative, making it available to that central ruling institution at minimal cost (which is good, because not being a state, they also have minimal centralized resources).

In practice that personal supply of force likely comes in two parts: retainers and clients (of some form). The Big Man himself is generally a vocational principle warrior, a member of a warrior aristocracy for whom being a warrior is a core part of his identity. In order to function as a Big Man in this kind of society, he often needs to maintain some more-or-less permanent supply of force, his regular retinue. These retainers represent a smaller ‘full time’ force, often a mix of other smaller aristocrats and blue-collar military professionals. Thus in peacetime a Big Man might keep younger members of his family – who will have trained as warrior aristocrats too, since that was the class they were born into – in his household to serve as retainers. Equally, he might take in young men from other aristocratic households in the same capacity (pages, squires, etc), often as means of maintaining horizontal bonds between aristocratic families.

Often alongside these warrior aristocrats of varying levels of ‘bigness,’ there are non-aristocratic warriors maintained on an employment principle – though because non-state societies generally aren’t heavily monetized, these fellows are typically ‘paid’ in status (including valuable prestige goods) and maintenance (food, board, equipment, etc) rather than strictly in money. Because they are non-noble, these fellows tend to be ‘left out’ or rendered somewhat invisible in many sources – for instance, they clearly exist in the retinues of Iberian, Celtiberian and Gallic Big Men but only rarely do our Greek and Roman sources note their presence explicitly, preferring to focus on the aristocrats. In a medieval European aristocrats retinue, these fellows are variously termed sergeants, men-at-arms (though this phrase can includes nobles or knights), coutiliers and so on. Because they’re not aristocrats, in addition to being trained combatants, they can also be made to do non-aristocratic things: breaking down the camp, tending animals, handling food, standing guard and so on (although in some cases these fellows can get fancy enough to have their own servants to do some of that).2

The retinue of a Big Man is often enough for small-scale warfare, but military pressures tend over time to push beyond the ability of the Big Man to match simply with retainers. I’d argue that the 6th through the 4th centuries in much of the western and central Mediterranean, for instance, we can see these pressures rippling through, forcing societies to reach beyond a small warrior aristocrat class and find ways to mobilize broader populations. For the early part of the Middle Ages in much of Europe the process went the other way, moving from mass conscription systems (see below) towards more Big Man oriented systems, yet large-scale warfare still demanded more men than a retinue could supply and so nobles had to reach outside of their households for troops.

We thus shift principle to assemble the rest of the Big Man’s army: no longer recruiting other aristocrats or work-a-day warriors, he now levies his clients, via the clientage principle. For a pastoralist society, these many be the poorer members of the Big Man’s tribe or clan, while for agrarian societies, these are the peasants. In both cases, these decidedly ‘little’ men rely in peacetime on the Big Man for protection (often military, economic and legal protection), in exchange for some kinds of service to the Big Man. That relationship is sometimes formalized (as with serfdom or debt peonage) and sometimes simply a structure of strong social expectations (as with clientage, narrowly construed) but it often includes an expectation that the Big Man can call upon his clients (/serfs/clansmen/tenants, etc) for military service, not as a ‘full time’ occupation (these folks need to be farming and herding, after all), but either on a rolling, time-limited basis or more often for specific ‘big campaigns.’

In terms of the process for all of this, it can generally work quite directly through personal relationships: the king decides to raise an army and so calls up his Big Man vassals (who, as clients to the king (as Biggest Man), owe him a duty of service). Those Big Men in turn set out with their household retinue (who are in pretty much daily contact with them anyway) and if necessary raise up a levy of their clients or peasants from the local villages which they administer and extract from. The system thus ripples through a series of personal peacetime relationships: the king to his Big Man friends to their slightly-smaller Big Man friends to the members of their household and the Big Man’s tenants, serfs and clients (who all interact with the Big Man in socially subordinate ways – perhaps through a steward or other member of the Big Man’s household – on the regular anyway).

In terms of supply equipment, because the prestige and power of the Big Man is often dependent on the effectively of his retinue, he might opt to pay himself for the equipment of his permanent retainers, if he has the resources, though equally having the gear may the ‘price of entry’ for being a retainer in the first place. What the Big Man almost certainly is not doing is maintaining an armory large enough to fully equip his clients: they’re expected to bring their own gear. However, these tend to be the kinds of societies where those ‘little men’ clients do not have the kind of political heft to protect their production and wealth from the Big Man’s extraction – that’s why they’re so subordinate in the first place3 – and so the gear they’re likely to be able to afford is going to be cheap. This can produce kind of a feedback loop where client levies are badly equipped and perform poorly, so the Big Men magnates focus on their more aristocratic retinues by extracting more heavily from the peasants, which further reduces the quality of their client levies.

The army form that results from all of this is what I’ve termed repeatedly a retinue of retinues (a term I did not invent). The advantage of this kind of a system is that it involved very low administrative overhead or direct cost for the king, chieftain or other ruling institution (though equally it does require having a lot of resources soaked up by the Big Man class).

Via Wikipedia, the Vachères warrior, from Vachères France, now in the Museum Calvet, in Avignon, France (inv. G136c), dating to the first century BC. This is a fairly good sense of the equipment of a Gallic elite, a ‘Big Man’ and you may note immediately his fine mail cuirass which alone likely represents several thousand hours of (someone else’s) labor. His shield has a decorated boss and he surely would have worn a helmet in battle. Note the contrast between the infantrymen in the next image!

But the disadvantages are numerous: armies recruited this way tend to be of very disparate quality, with enormous gaps between the best-equipped aristocrats and very poorly equipped client-peasant-levymen. Without much in the way of state institutions, it’s quite hard to enforce a meaningful ‘floor’ on levy quality and in some cases the levy gets so poor that it becomes basically useless, leading rulers scrambling to find other (generally more expensive) ways to ‘bulk out’ their armies. Equally, because the army arrives as a series of units structures around a Big Man, his retinue and his client-levy, it is structured as a series of irregular units which cannot be easily recombined or restructured. After all, these peasant spearmen here and those knightly cavalry there are both in this army because of their personal relationship to this specific Big Man, Baron Owns-Some-Land. You cannot simply flip them into the unit of Count Owns-Some-Different-Land, they don’t owe that guy anything. Equally, both Baron Owns-Some-Land and Count Owns-Some-Different-Land are arriving with their private armies and so they expect to lead those units in battle and to exercise some real discretion over how they are used. All of that makes central command by the king, chieftain or whomever an excercise in herding cats: charismatic leaders (William of Normandy, Chinggis Khan, etc) can wield these sorts of armies very adroitly, managing the personalities as they go but less forceful individuals (King Edward II, for instance) struggle fiercely to control their chiefs, counts, earls, barons and so on.

Via Wikipedia, the military parade on the Gundestrup Cauldron, found in Gundestrup, Denmark but with a mix of Gallic and Thracian motifs, date uncertain (somewhere between 200BC and 100AD).
Note the contrast between the riders at the top – those are the aristocrats and their retinues – who have fine metal helmets with large metal decorations and wear what seem to be mail shirts, riding their horses and on the other hand the infantrymen at the bottom, who carry shields and spears but appear to have only textile coverings for their heads and little, if any body armor (possibly just some kind of textile armor or perhaps just clothing).
The aristocrats above are some of the best equipped men on their iron age battlefield; their clients below are some of the worst equipped.

Likewise, militaries formed on this basis tend to have fairly limited peacetime force and what they have is gathered around the household of the Big Man, not scattered like local police through the villages. MMORPGs and fantasy worlds alike love their ‘local village guards,’ but these societies cannot afford many full-time soldiers and the ones they can afford tend to be guarding things like castles and towns (or just, you know, hanging around the Big Man’s person), not villages. The people who will arrest you for robbing the village are the villagers (who, remember, make up the levy in an emergency anyway).

Naturally, as noted, this tends to be the system for non-state polities where power is wielded not centrally, but by the Big Man. It is a substantial and frequent mistake to give such polities more state-based army forms, which they can rarely sustain. By contrast, the process of state formation by definition diminishes these sorts of household armies, merging them into a single military system under the authority of the state.

Now we’ll pause there for now. Next week we’ll start looking at some more adminstratively and overhead intensive approaches (although as we’ll see in some cases the trick is still getting someone else to supply that administrative overhead).

Elon Musk, Human Ponzi Scheme

President Trump participates in a press conference with ...

Yesterday I took a short trip. I began with a ride on the local Hyperloop, which ran through a tunnel dug by Boring Company. Then I used my neural implant to summon a fully self-driving Tesla robotaxi. While enroute I read the latest news from the Mars colony.

OK, none of that actually happened, because those products don’t exist. There are no working Hyperloops. The Boring Company has not dug any commercial tunnels. Tesla has a few self-driving — though not fully self-driving — taxis in Austin and nowhere else. (Google’s Waymo driverless taxis are operational in several major hubs.) Neuralink, which is purportedly pioneering brain implants, has tested its products in a handful of patients but done no more than that. And of course there is no Mars colony: there have been no manned flights to Mars, nor the prospect of any for the foreseeable future.

Yet at various points over the past decade Elon Musk promised that each of these services would be available by 2025 if not sooner.

Granted, Musk has had some real successes. Tesla was ahead of the EV curve, and Starlink is a critically important service as well as a viable business.

But these achievements weren’t enough to make Musk the world’s richest man. His wealth has, instead, historically rested mainly on self-fulfilling faith — investors believing in Musk’s genius have piled into stocks in Musk-controlled companies, and the rising value of these companies has enhanced his reputation for genius.

We have a term for enterprises that look successful because they keep drawing in new investors and keep drawing in new investors because they look successful. They’re called Ponzi schemes. And Elon Musk is basically a human Ponzi scheme.

Furthermore, the SpaceX IPO now in progress makes it clearer than ever that Musk’s greatest skill isn’t developing futuristic products. It’s his mastery of financial shell games and his ability to leverage insider influence, especially his influence with the Trump administration.

To see what I mean, consider Musk’s 2022 purchase of Twitter, which he renamed X. To finance the deal, investment banks lent Musk $13 billion, debt they planned to quickly move off their books by selling it on to investors. But Musk proceeded to destroy X’s business model by turning it into an extreme-right, Nazi-friendly cesspool, prompting advertisers to flee. By the summer of 2024, X was valued at less than half of its purchase price. Faced with losses of 40 cents on the dollar if they sold the debt, his bankers were forced to hold the Twitter debt far longer than anticipated, prompting the August 2024 Wall Street Journal headline: “Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover Is Now the Worst Buyout for Banks Since the Financial Crisis”.

But then two things happened that bailed out the banks along with Musk’s future creditworthiness: the 2024 election of Donald Trump and the advent of AI. After Trump’s election, advertisers began returning to X, citing a need to appease Musk and Trump. And in March 2025, Musk merged his newly-founded AI company xAI with X, playing off the accelerating AI buzz to further prop up X’s valuation and his own personal balance sheet.

Unfortunately for Musk, xAI’s Grok is, by all accounts, much inferior to the AI models offered by Anthropic and OpenAI. It’s also widely considered unsafe and unreliable. At one point it began spewing racist and antisemitic comments, dubbing itself MechaHitler. Trump administration officials have pushed government agencies — including the Pentagon — to use Grok, but with little success.

So Musk, having bailed out X by rolling it into xAI, is now bailing out xAI by rolling it into SpaceX, which has a genuinely successful business in Starlink.

And today SpaceX is going public. Its initial public offering (IPO) debuts today on the Nasdaq at a price that implies a $1.77 trillion valuation for a company that had revenues of only $18.7 billion last year and lost money.

How can this, um, astronomical valuation be justified? The IPO is premised partly on the assumption that retail investors will buy in, not because they have made any rational assessment of SpaceX as a business, but because they believe that they are buying stakes in Elon Musk’s genius.

But the ranks of the faithful may not be enough to keep the shell game going. So Musk’s Wall Street allies are also rigging the game. Some of the major stock indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and FTSE Russell, have recently changed their rules in order to admit SpaceX almost immediately.

It’s important to understand that the inclusion of a company’s shares in a major stock index carries enormous financial rewards. A large share of stocks is held in “index funds,” mutual funds that hold portfolios designed to mimic the behavior of major indexes. Thus there is an immediate demand for the shares of a company when its shares are added to a major index because index funds must now add them to their portfolios.

Historically, the major indexes have waited at least a year after a company’s IPO before considering its inclusion in their market measures, to give the stock time to “mature”. The bending of the rules for SpaceX shows that Musk is again exerting his ability to co-opt and corrupt key institutions. (Notably, the S&P 500 has resisted the pressure and will wait a year before including SpaceX.)

Which brings me to my final point. The immense human Ponzi scheme that is Elon Musk will eventually collapse. But traditional Ponzi schemes only exploit investors who choose to participate. This time much of the money propping up Musk’s scam will come from ordinary Americans who have in effect been forced to buy in. Approximately 52% of mutual fund assets are now invested in index or index-based funds, and over 50% of American households are invested in mutual funds. Thanks to the collusion between Musk and Wall Street, enabled by the perception that the Trump administration has Musk’s back, many if not most of these small investors will be dragged, willy-nilly, into fueling the Musk juggernaut.

Should anyone in Trump’s America be surprised?

MUSICAL CODA

Quoting Andrew Singleton

Jenny owns a crematorium. John’s propane company gives her a $20 billion investment in return for 5 percent of her operation. Jenny throws $10 billion into the incinerator, then pays John $10 billion to buy propane to burn that money to ashes. John reports that his AI investments have generated $10 billion in revenue this quarter and that he owns 5 percent of a $100 billion business. A reporter from Forbes is assigned to profile John and Jenny, and over the course of his research, he becomes embroiled in a passionate but confusing three-way love affair with them, which eventually turns into a polyamorous common-law marriage. His profile is glowing, but light on financial details.

Andrew Singleton, AI Economics for Dummies

Tags: ai

Claude Fable is relentlessly proactive

After two days of experience with Claude Fable 5 I think the best way to describe it is relentlessly proactive. It knows a whole lot of tricks and it will deploy pretty much any of them to get to its goal.

I'll illustrate this with an example. I was hacking on Datasette Agent today when I noticed a glitch: a horizontal scrollbar that shouldn't be there in the jump menu chat prompt. I snapped this screenshot:

Screenshot of a modal dialog demonstrating a scrollbar bug. At the top is a focused search input with blue outline and placeholder "Jump to...", with an X close button to its right. Below, a heading reads "Start a new agent chat" above a textarea with the placeholder "Ask a question about your data..." — the bug: a thick gray horizontal scrollbar is incorrectly displayed along the bottom edge of the empty textarea, spanning nearly its full width, next to the resize handle. Below the textarea: "Press Enter to start. Shift+Enter adds a new line." followed by a blue "Start chat" button.

Then I started a fresh claude session in my datasette-agent checkout, dragged in the screenshot and told it:

Look at dependencies to help figure out why there is a horizontal scrollbar here

I had a hunch the cause was in a dependency of Datasette Agent (likely Datasette itself) and I knew Fable was good at digging into dependency code, either by inspecting installed files in its own virtual environment site-packages or by referencing a local checkout on disk. Telling it to start with dependencies felt like a good bet.

I got distracted by a domestic task and wandered away from my computer.

When I came back a few minutes later I saw my machine open a browser window in my regular Firefox and then navigate to the dialog in question. I had not told Claude Code to use any browser automation, and I was pretty sure it wasn't possible for it to trigger mouse movements or keyboard shortcuts within a window, so how was it doing that?

I watched in fascination as it continued with its explorations, then saw it open a Safari window instead of Firefox. I also grabbed this snapshot from the Claude terminal:

Screenshot of two Bash tool calls in a dark terminal interface. First: Bash(open -a Safari /tmp/textarea-scrollbar-test.html && sleep 4 && uv run --with pyobjc-framework-Quartz python - <<'EOF' import Quartz wins = Quartz.CGWindowListCopyWindowInfo(Quartz.kCGWindowListOptionOnScreenOnly, Quartz.kCGNullWindowID) for w in wins: if (w.get('kCGWindowOwnerName') or '') == 'Safari' and 'textarea' in (w.get('kCGWindowName') or '').lower(): print(w.get('kCGWindowNumber')) EOF) with output 153551. Second: Bash(screencapture -x -o -l 153551 /tmp/safari-cases.png && echo ok) with output ok.

What was it doing there with uv run --with pyobjc-framework-Quartz?

It turns out Fable had hacked up its own pattern for taking screenshots of browser windows. It was using Python to iterate through all available windows on my machine, then filtering for Safari windows with expected strings such as "textarea" in the window name. It used that to find their window number - an integer like 153551 - which it could then use with the screencapture CLI tool to grab a PNG.

OK fine, that's a neat way of taking screenshots. But what was it taking screenshots of?

Turns out it had been writing its own scratch HTML pages to try and recreate the bug, then opening Safari and grabbing screenshots.

Here's that /tmp/textarea-scrollbar-test.html page it created, and the screenshot it took with screencapture -x -o -l 153551 /tmp/safari-cases.png:

Screenshot of a Safari browser window showing a textarea scrollbar test page at file:///private/tmp/textarea-scrollbar-test.html. Page text reads: scrollbar thickness: 17px | UA: Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7) AppleWebKit/605.1.15 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/26.4 Safari/605.1.15 | devicePixelRatio: 2. Four numbered test cases follow, each with a textarea containing the placeholder "Ask a question about your data...": 1. Exact plugin CSS (resize: vertical, default overflow), 2. Plugin CSS + overflow-x: hidden, 3. Plugin CSS + resize: none, and 4. Bare default textarea, which is a much smaller box with the placeholder wrapping onto two lines. (I have way too many open tabs!)

OK, so I can see how it's opening test pages and taking screenshots, but how on earth was it triggering the modal dialog that was meant to be under test? That's only available via a click or a keyboard shortcut, and I couldn't see a mechanism for it to run those in Safari.

I eventually figured out what it had done.

Claude was running in a folder that contained the source code for the application. It knows enough about Datasette to be able to run a local development server. It turns out it was editing Datasette's own templates to add JavaScript that would trigger the correct keyboard shortcut as soon as the window opened, adding code like this:

<script>
window.addEventListener("load", function () {
  setTimeout(function () {
    document.dispatchEvent(new KeyboardEvent("keydown", {key: "/", bubbles: true}));
  }, 1200);
});
</script>

1.2 seconds after the window opens, this code triggers a simulated / key, which is the keyboard shortcut for opening the modal dialog.

There was one challenge left. In order to understand what was going on, Claude needed to run JavaScript on the page to take measurements for itself.

It wrote its own custom web application to capture information via CORS, then ran that as a local server and opened a page with JavaScript that would POST directly to it!

Here's the Python web app it wrote, using the standard library http.server package:

from http.server import HTTPServer, BaseHTTPRequestHandler

class H(BaseHTTPRequestHandler):
    def do_POST(self):
        n = int(self.headers.get("Content-Length", 0))
        open("/tmp/diag.json", "w").write(self.rfile.read(n).decode())
        self.send_response(200)
        self.send_header("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
        self.end_headers()
    def do_OPTIONS(self):
        self.send_response(200)
        self.send_header("Access-Control-Allow-Origin", "*")
        self.send_header("Access-Control-Allow-Headers", "*")
        self.end_headers()
    def log_message(self, *a):  # quiet
        pass

HTTPServer(("127.0.0.1", 9999), H).serve_forever()

All this does is accept a POST request full of JSON and write that to the /tmp/diag.json file. It sends Access-Control-Allow-Origin: * headers (including from OPTIONS requests) so that code running on another domain can still communicate back to it.

Then Claude injected this code into the template that it was loading in a browser:

const host = document.querySelector("navigation-search");
const ta   = host.shadowRoot.querySelector("textarea");
const cs   = getComputedStyle(ta);
fetch("http://127.0.0.1:9999/diag", {
  method: "POST",
  body: JSON.stringify({
    dpr: window.devicePixelRatio,
    scrollWidth: ta.scrollWidth, clientWidth: ta.clientWidth,
    whiteSpace: cs.whiteSpace, width: cs.width,
  }),
});

This took measurements of the <textarea> inside the <navigation-search> Web Component and sent them to the server, which wrote them to a file on disk, which Claude could then read.

Having figured out all of these tricks Fable... hit some invisible guardrail and downgraded itself to Opus. Thankfully Opus had access to the full transcript and could continue using the tricks pioneered by Fable, and shortly afterwards found, tested and verified the fix.

I prompted Opus to:

Write a report in /tmp/automation-report.md where you note down all of the tricks you have used in this session to test against real browsers on my computer, include runnable code examples

Which produced this report, which was invaluable for piecing together the details of what had happened for this post.

I've shared the full terminal transcript of the Claude Code session as well.

A review of everything it did

Based on a screenshot and a one-line prompt, Claude Fable 5 + Claude Code:

  • Figured out the recipe to run the local development server (with fake environment variables needed to get it running)
  • Fired up a Playwright Chrome session
  • Turned on the visible scrollbars setting for Chrome defaults write com.google.chrome.for.testing AppleShowScrollBars Always (it turned that off again later)
  • Cycled through Firefox and WebKit in Playwright too, failing to recreate the bug
  • Worked out my default browser was Safari
  • Built a textarea-scrollbar-test.html HTML document
  • Opened that in real (not Playwright) Firefox
  • Found that osascript -e 'tell application "System Events" to tell process "firefox" to id of window 1' was blocked because "osascript is not allowed assistive access"
  • Figured out that uv run --with pyobjc-framework-Quartz python workaround, described above
  • Added JavaScript to the site templates in order to trigger the / key
  • Built its own little Python CORS web server to capture JSON data
  • Rewrote the template to capture that data and send it to the server
  • Scripted its way through the Web Component shadow DOM to the information it needed
  • Opened Safari to confirm the source of the bug
  • Modified its custom template to hack in a potential fix
  • Confirmed the hacked fix worked
  • Reported back on how to fix the problem

Like I said, relentlessly proactive!

An estimate of the cost

I'm currently on the $100/month Claude Max plan, which includes a generous allowance for Fable up until June 22nd after which Anthropic say they'll start charging full API prices for it.

I'm using AgentsView to track my spending (see this TIL). Here's what AgentsView says this session would have cost me if I was paying full price for it:

~ % uvx agentsview session usage be8850a7-6119-46a0-b5d6-79c7fff5ae2b
Session:       be8850a7-6119-46a0-b5d6-79c7fff5ae2b
Agent:         claude
Output:        68606
Peak ctx:      113178
Cost:          ~$12.11 (claude-fable-5, claude-opus-4-8)

If you don't keep a close eye on it, Fable will quite happily burn $12 in tokens inventing new ways to debug your CSS.

I really need to lock this thing down

On the one hand, watching Fable go to extreme lengths to get the information that it needed to debug what was, in the end, a two-line CSS fix, was fascinating.

But on the other hand... this is a robust reminder that coding agents can do anything you can do by typing commands into a terminal - and frontier models know every trick in the book, and evidently a few that nobody has ever written down before.

If Fable had been acting on malicious instructions - a prompt injection attack hidden in code or an issue thread, or something I'd carelessly pasted into my terminal - it's alarming to think quite how far it could go to exfiltrate data or cause other forms of mischief.

Running coding agents outside of a sandbox has always been a bad idea - it's my top contender for a Challenger disaster incident, as described by Johann Rehberger in The Normalization of Deviance in AI.

Fable is arguably smarter and hence more suspicious of potentially malicious instructions. But that smartness is very much a two-edged sword: if it does get subverted by instructions, the amount of damage it can do given its relentless proactivity is terrifying.

Tags: ai, prompt-injection, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, coding-agents, claude-code, claude-mythos

Ask Almost A Doctor: A Functional Health Joint

If you have questions, you can email me at eryney@corememory.com, DM me on Twitter or Substack. Or put them in the comments below!

Also, none of the below constitutes medical advice. (Seriously. This is not medical advice - Ed.)

And as always, thanks to Kylie Robison for editing. Please check out her directorial debut with Core Memory when it comes out.

Thanks for reading.

Jacob Keeton (@jacobkeeton via substack)

Trying to think of how I could make this question about space.... Maybe something with astrobiology?

How about hyperspectral biology? This is something I learned about from my friend Niko McCarty, a wonderful writer and brilliant biologist. The term captures a broad set of things, but the general idea is to create methods of viewing biological phenomena using satellites. For instance, could you create a system capable of detecting explosives hidden in the soil?

An MIT study showed that it’s possible to engineer bacteria that, when sprayed into soil laden with TNT, would make light that can be visible with satellites in space. You can maybe imagine the use for something like this given the current state of the world, but there are benign use cases too, particularly in agriculture. Such a system of bacterial biosensors can track heavy metal or toxins in water supplies, monitoring fertilizer runoff or even helping farmers know if their soil needs nutrient repletion. I’m not a horticulturist so pardon my lack of imagination, but I’m sure intelligent people trained in those areas can think of some uses.

Also, you should read Niko’s work.

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Siddharth Sethia (@siddharthsethia via substack)

Do you think binder generation is still an interesting problem to work on? If so, what types of targets or types of binders are underserved? If not, why do you say so?

I’ll also point at another friend here, Abhi (aka Owl Posting), who convinced me that actual design of protein binders – a field specific term for a protein that has high affinity for something else and that’s how it exerts its effect – is more or less a solved problem. BindCraft out of MIT has sufficiently demonstrated that making novel, functioning binders is no longer a bottleneck. In that sense, yeah it’s probably not an “interesting” problem to work on. However, what do you make binders for?

ML in bio has advanced to the point where generating and selecting proteins that have desired properties (high affinity, increased stability, etc) is quite good with off the shelf tools. When I first started my biology career in 2014, this was not true, but things started to improve with Google’s AlphaFold in 2020. The reason this hasn’t resulted in a tidal wave of new therapies is that design of biological molecules is only one part of the problem. You have a bunch of nails – awesome! What are you going to do with them?

The next wave of biological research orgs are going to focus on improving the loop that is both target discovery and binder design together. So far, I’d say we’re a ways off from solving the discovery part.

Gviv (@gviv on substack)

What are the main physiological mechanisms that the body uses to prioritize and reallocate nutrients when they are in short supply?

So many places I can go with this one.

Let’s maybe just focus on the basics of energy balance. At the highest level, your body can use fat, protein or carbs as energy sources. Carbs get broken down into basic molecules of glucose, which your brain uses a lot of, and your liver can store in the form of glycogen when you have excess. Fat and protein can go a similar way – storage, or use. What happens when you’re fasting?

Your body will break the glycogen down into glucose to meet the most immediate energy needs, but that gets depleted pretty quickly. It’ll then start making new glucose by breaking down either fat or protein. Generally, the body starts with fat, but if you don’t have much of it, there’s no choice but to go for protein. On a long enough time frame protein ends up going, and at that point you’re in trouble. This is all stuff that you can learn in a bio 101 class, but it’s the fundamentals that make up a ton of nutritional and exercise science.

An additional, more biochemically focused framing can be spotted by paying attention to the actual cycles involved in making these things. Each of the processes I described above involve dozens of intermediate steps that involve an input substrate, an enzyme, and oftentimes a co-factor like vitamin B12 or NAD+ and so on. Cells in your body manage the broad pathways by monitoring the build up or absence of individual parts of the cycle. Too much ATP, and the body will slow down glucose use. Too little, and it’ll start making more glucose.

These feedback cycles have so many distant regulation points that it makes much of the discourse around what vitamin or mineral or supplement to take just impossible. Everything is plausible under the sun, but much of it fails to hold up under experimental scrutiny. Here is a map if you’re curious.

Source Evans Love https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolism

This is just metabolism, by the way.

The Middle Aged (via substack)

I’d be curious to know what the best ways are for young educated patients (who are not medically trained) to seek out the latest research advances related to their conditions.

I grew up with a rare blood condition, idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP). At the time of my diagnosis – age 13 – I knew basically nothing about biology or health. However, the internet is great, and I got to reading about some of the basics of the blood and immune system, which kicked off what would become the last 16 years of my life. Something I used to do was occasionally search up and read trials for my condition. I didn’t really understand much of what was in there, but that’s OK. The first time I actively read a paper I only understood 1%. The next paper, maybe 5%. After the 10th paper in the field, I was following most of the story. Again, I was a dumb teenager, and you could do much better than those numbers starting today.

What I’ve observed in my (limited) clinical experience is that patients who engage with their condition can participate in as much of their care as they’d like. With LLMs, this has become much easier. As an example, once you understand the basics, you can keep up to date on trials by setting PubMed email alerts for keywords. Depending on how invested you are, patient advocates are welcome at many conferences, too, but those tend to be a little pricier.

Sri Nandan Gondi (@srinandgondi2 via substack)

I’ve seen the Bio space, especially ML Bio, heavily focus on better drugs, therapeutics, etc. But how much progress can we make in preventive healthcare (food, lifestyle, environmental chemical exposures, pollution, aging, etc) and how can ML help in these areas?

Medicine and lifestyle tend to be viewed in opposition, but they really aren’t. For instance, we know obesity can by itself cause many different types of cancer, such as with endometrial cancer. Though we now have medication to manage weight in the form of Danish Peptides, clearly diet and exercise are sufficient for many people.

There’s now plenty of evidence that environmental exposures can cause cancer, as was the very unfortunate case of Teflon (and PFAS in general). You don’t need me to tell you that cigarettes aren’t good for you, or that drinking in excess can cause a litany of health problems. The reason we know all of these things is because large retrospective studies analyzed the effects of many now-identified carcinogens on populations and were found to have bad outcomes. These served as the basis for prospective trials, and ultimately cementing the common advice: don’t smoke, drink, or eat red meat.

Where ML can be helpful is making use of all the monitoring data that is cropping up. Millions of people are having their hearts monitored by their Apple Watch or Whoop. Thousands are getting more routine blood testing via various services like Function Health. The UK Bio Bank, which has followed 400,000 citizens for a couple decades and captures a ton of different data modalities, is a great example of what’s possible. Imagine what we learn with an additional order of magnitude worth of data.

Trina Patton (@trinapatton698090 via substack)

I’ve always wondered how doctors figure out what’s going on when multiple illnesses can have the same symptoms. Is it mostly pattern recognition, testing, probability, or something else that guides treatment decisions?

Pattern recognition is a big part of it. Even mediocre doctors are very good at catching the common stuff. As you’re suggesting, the challenge is what to do when there are multiple things going on, or whether someone is a medical zebra.

I will say that medical students actually do learn a tremendous amount about identifying ultra-rare diseases. For the US Medical Licensing Exam we’re expected to know how to differentiate various one-in-a-million immune deficiency disorders (Whiskott-Aldrich Syndrome, Hyper-IgM, IgA deficiency, SCID, CVID and many, many more), down to the exact dysfunctional genes that cause them. As you enter practice, though, you see less of them, and that knowledge atrophies. That’s why generalists rely on experts when they don’t know what’s going on.

For example, if you go to your primary care physician as a 30-something man with recent multiple bouts of diarrhea after trying this year’s mystery meat in the McRib (it’s not back, by the way), they can probably help figure out if you just have a GI bug. If it persists for a few weeks, it’s unlikely to be that, and they are likely to order some blood tests that might help whittle things down. HIV or hyperthyroidism can cause diarrhea, but so can celiac disease. If all of that is negative, you’re off to the GI specialist for a colonoscopy and whatever else they have in mind.

The American healthcare system is actually exceptional at solving problems, despite what you read online. But you do pay for it.

Jennifer Yates Zilliac (@thisisthemountain via substack)

I’ve been trying to solve some issues with sleep and energy for well over a decade, and I keep finding there is one more piece to the puzzle. I’ve been frustrated that my primary care docs have not partnered with me to solve problems. I’ve now found that partner in AI, and the approach is functional medicine, which is not what my primary docs are doing with me. Please tell me what you see in terms of a shift toward functional medicine and AI.

I’m sorry you’ve been dealing with these issues. They seem disruptive, and I hope you’ve arrived at something that is closer to normalcy.

Functional medicine seems like something that feels uniquely resolvable by AI that traditional healthcare isn’t. Continuous monitors capture tons of data; digital food logs keep track of what’s going in your body; and blood testing is becoming more available outside of the usual medical infrastructure. The catch is that the onus is on you, the patient, to provide context.

If you are wearing your Apple Watch, and you experience a period of accelerated heart rate at 11pm, your device can’t really tell you what’s going on. Maybe you went for a late night jog, and it can somewhat intuit that from the accelerometer, but it doesn’t know that what actually happened is you drank a couple cups of green tea with dinner at 9pm. In that instance, AI isn’t providing anything for you. Then again, neither is a doctor. But an invested human is more likely to ask you about your sleep habits generally, which might lead to surfacing of this link.

I used a Whoop for some time to keep track of things, but honestly I found it overwhelming to have to fill out my daily journal of whether I had 1 cup or 1.5 cups of coffee and at what time, whether I flew on a plane, whether I ate dinner within 2 hours of bed, and so on. Figuring out a way to keep track of the granularity in our day seems like the next thing for these companies to do. Maybe something like Meta glasses will help with that. Though I hate the idea of Apple acting as a Big Brother, you can also see a world where Apple can make use of the fact that it has access to your texts, calendar, flight details etc to automatically link to your Watch data. They just gotta get their act together with AI.

In any case, the best solution involving functional health is one where your health data can be understood in the context of you. Whether that’s with AI-integrated devices or by talking to a functional health specialist is up to the individual.

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TPM VIDEO: David Kurtz and Chris Geidner on the Trump Admin’s Anti-Trans Crusade

The Trump administration’s unrelenting anti-trans crusade has many familiar Trump II elements: performative cruelty; using the powers of the state to bully a vulnerable, marginalized, disfavored group; and outrageous misconduct in pursuit of poisonous policy objectives.

TPM Editor-at-Large David Kurtz was joined by Chris Geidner, publisher of the Law Dork newsletter and the leading American journalist covering these issues, to talk about this sweeping assault on transgender Americans.

Check out the full video on Substack Live.


‘Midway Blitz’ & ‘Metro Surge’ Were Always About Terrorizing Blue Cities

I generally focus more on the iterative, step-by-step developments in a story like the Broadview Six case. So I want to make sure you see this Josh Kovensky piece on the context in which it all happened: Washington pressuring Chicago prosecutors to fall in line and abuse their power in the service of “Midway Blitz,” a U.S. attorney’s office hollowed out through high-level resignations and departures in 2025. All a mix desperation, violence and misconduct that brought us to that moment last October and today. Also don’t miss David Kurtz’s look at how the Broadview Six scandal is spreading to and endangering other cases which aren’t really tied to Midway Blitz at all.

I want to remind us of something that is easy to lose track of amidst the violence, predation and anger. Operations “Midway Blitz” and “Metro Surge” — both hideous faux-military operation tag lines — were never only or even mainly about mass deportation or even harassing immigrants (documented and not), though they did lots of both. Their aim was to terrorize blue cities, attack the communities that inhabit them and the states which are sovereign over them. This may strike some as a bold or ungenerous claim. But these operations were never efficient at rounding up undocumented immigrants. ICE has many more effective ways of doing that.

Trumpism can’t brook dissent or independent centers of power within the country, which Trump and his minions see as something like his property. That’s why federalism has always been and remains the sheet anchor of resistance to Trump’s would-be autocracy in his second term. The Supreme Court’s corrupt claims of authority have made Trump’s will unquestionable and unstoppable within the executive branch. But states are their own separate and distinct, albeit subordinate, sovereignties. The president simply cannot reach into a state government and fire an appointee, executive official or anyone else. There is no line of authority or connective tissue that makes it possible. This is a critical safeguard for American elections since the Constitution places the management of elections in state hands. Every one of Trump’s corrupt attempts and election-swindling gambits have been efforts to get around that basic, structural fact. The goal behind these blue city occupations was always to use force and violence to coerce those independent sovereignties, bring them to heel, attempting with violence and abuses of power what the Constitution clearly bars by any legal means.

That kind of end-run on the law can never be legitimate and it made the whole effort a war of violence against the federal Constitution, as well as the individual states.

They thought escalation could work to their benefit. Storm into a city with violence and abuses of power. Spur street protests in opposition. Then escalate or even call in the military to “protect” public safety against the protesters who were protesting the original abuses of power and domestic invasion by a rogue president.

But it didn’t work. Vigilance and organizing and strategic restraint mobilized public opinion against the president’s anti-constitutional violence.

The entire effort, from start to finish, was a war against the Constitution and the liberties, privileges and immunities of American citizens.

Bernie Sanders’ AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Plan

Let no one accuse Bernie Sanders of ducking the big questions. Writing in the New York Times last week, the senator asked: “Will the future of humanity be determined by a handful of billionaires who have promoted and developed AI, with virtually no democratic input, who stand to become even richer and more powerful than they are today?”

We agree entirely that this is one of the most potent questions facing global democracy today. Our book, Rewiring Democracy, surveys the emerging uses for and impacts of AI in democracy around the world and reaches the same conclusion: that the most urgent risk posed by AI is the concentration of power, wealth and control among tech oligarchs.

And yet we reached a vastly different conclusion than Sanders on what to do about it.

The senator points to a once radical but increasingly popular solution: creating a US sovereign wealth fund by taking 50% stock in AI companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI. The argument in favor of this is twofold. One: it would establish democratic control over the AI companies, giving the government “the power, through its voting shares and an equal representation on each company’s board, to block decisions that hurt our citizens and to push for policies that help them”. Two: it would return a big chunk of the economic rewards of soaring AI valuations to the public, ensuring “trillions of dollars potentially generated by AI are used to improve the lives of all of us”.

We laud both these goals unreservedly.

We wholeheartedly agree that there must be public influence over the development and use of AI, just as we demand the government intervene to ensure that automakers, drugmakers, airlines and other industries balance profitability with public safety and the public interest. And we credit the senator with recognizing that there are more levers for the government to pull beyond the promulgation of regulation to achieve this.

And we also agree that the obscene, dangerous accumulation of wealth among AI companies needs to be disrupted. As OpenAI and Anthropic race to be minted as the world’s latest trillion-dollar AI companies, we should recognize that—whether or not it constitutes a bubble—these staggering market capitalizations represent a transfer of wealth. The flow of money goes from the smaller businesses and actual people using AI, and being subjected to it, to the owners of these tech companies.

That includes the world’s 86 AI billionaires “seeking to maximize their power and profit” aiming to decide the “fate of humanity … behind closed doors in Silicon Valley”, as Sanders said.

And yet, while we do not outright oppose the taking of AI company stock, or of a US sovereign wealth fund, there are better ways to achieve Sanders’ stated goals.

Public ownership of these companies entangles corporate profit and valuation with the public interest. It would incentivize the government to clear regulations, permit the exploitation of workers and users, suppress competition, encourage AI adoption regardless of the responsibleness of the implementation or appropriateness of the use case, and otherwise act on behalf of corporate interests.

After all, if growing, say, Nvidia from its first $5tn in value to its next $5tn also represents a doubling in value of this segment of the sovereign wealth fund, then you can expect the fund managers to support chip sales, foreign and domestic, with the same zeal as the company’s private investors.

This is not an effective way to influence corporations to act in the public interest. In fact, it makes corporate influence on the government more likely.

We should be wary of this possibility because we’ve seen it before. Ownership of substantial stakes in oil companies by the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, does not seem to have steered those corporations to pro-environmental policies. Instead, the Norwegian government’s dependence on those companies has inhibited them from taking climate action. Here in the US, public employee pension funds merit the same criticism: the fiduciary duty to generate wealth overwhelms any intention to direct their corporate holdings in the public interest.

A better answer is to separate the two goals. The standard way to share private rewards with the broader society that made them possible is taxation. Senator Elizabeth Warren has proposed an excise tax on datacenters’ energy use. Others have proposed an AI token tax, which has much the same effect.

As to the goal of reshaping AI in the public interest, we have proposed an AI Public Option. The concept is for governments, be it federal or state, to establish publicly developed and operated AI models run by public institutions under democratic control. The idea is not to eliminate corporate AI or to seize it as a public asset, but rather for government to provide a competitive baseline that private AI offerings must meet or exceed to win business—just like the notion of a healthcare public option.

The Swiss have trailblazed this approach. Apertus is a large language model built by Swiss public servants, researchers at Swiss universities, using appropriately licensed training data and pre-existing Swiss public supercomputing infrastructure powered by renewable energy.

While Apertus doesn’t seriously compete with the latest OpenAI and Anthropic models on performance benchmarks, it blows them out of the water in transparency, sustainability and compliance with EU regulations including adherence to copyright. It’s a nascent project, but suggestive of how public institutions can apply competitive pressure for corporate actors to behave responsibly.

Don’t confuse public AI with “sovereign AI“, the notion that every country needs to invest in domestic AI infrastructure. Sovereign AI is often invoked as a marketing scheme for big tech companies looking to sell to governments; it demands public investment without guaranteeing public control.

Sanders is a bold and savvy political operator. So why is he pursuing the sovereign wealth fund strategy when he must be aware of these risks? It may be due to another argument he makes in his op-ed: that the Trump administration and the billionaire owners of AI are aligned to the idea.

It’s expedient to capitalize on rare moments of seeming alignment across diverse political factions, but it also behooves us to ask why the AI billionaires are open to this extraordinary intervention. The answer, of course, is that they believe that for every dollar ceded to government stock expropriation, they will get back more in favorable government policies to protect that newfound investment.

Energy taxation is a straightforward way to make AI companies pay for the social disruption of their technologies. Public AI represents a non-monetary mechanism for governments to shape the development of AI, complementary to direct regulation of private actors, one with a far greater chance of influencing corporate behavior towards the public interest. We urge Sanders and other political leaders to consider them.

This essay was written with Nathan E. Sanders, and originally appeared in The Guardian.

After Helene: Lost & Found

After the floodwaters receded, the debris that remained wasn’t just wreckage — it was the scattered contents of people’s lives. A few have made it their mission to give it all back.


LISTEN TO THIS STORY’S SOUNDSCAPE


It was two months after floodwaters swelled by 27 feet along the Swannanoa River that Jill Holtz, an Army National Guard member, stepped onto a debris-strewn football field 600 feet north of the riverbed and made a decision that would change her life.

And the lives of countless victims of tropical storm Helene.

In the middle of the field was a toddler bed displaced by the storm. A Batman comforter was draped across the mattress, trapped in place by the blue metal frame. Two mud-caked stuffed animals, an orange monkey and a gorilla, were tucked into the headboard.

Scattered across the landscape, all around her, were the contents of people’s homes. Whole closets worth of clothes still on their hangers lay atop a puree of grass and mud. Trailer homes sat on their sides in the rubble. Glass dishes and pots, some undamaged by the violence of the rushing river, peeped out from upturned chunks of ground.

Holtz didn’t see piles of unsavageable wreckage. She didn’t consider the task of cleaning and fixing the mountains of momentos to be impossible. Instead, Holtz, 45, knew she had to do everything she could to return the items she found to the people who lost them in the greater Swannanoa area.

“[Imagine], you’ve lost everything, and you’re surrounded by all this stuff that is not yours. You’re surrounded by brand new stuff, sure, you’re surrounded by donations, sure, but you’ve lost a piece of home,” Holtz said. “If I can give that one little thing back to somebody, man, it means the world.”

And so she launched Out the Mud, a volunteer group designed to reunite lost items with their owners. Eighteen months after Helene’s floodwaters rushed through this 5,000-person community about 12 minutes east of Asheville, Holtz is still returning precious items to their owners.

And she is not the only one. Mandy Wallace is the artifact recovery technician for MountainTrue, a non-profit organization that has been working to clean debris from the French Broad and Swannanoa rivers since the storm. Since March 2025, she and her team have returned roughly 120 items through postings on their lost and found Facebook page. “It turns into a Nancy Drew mystery,” Wallace said in early March from her office in Weaverville, North Carolina. “Who’s this belong to? Who’s missing this?…I need to get it back.”

Alice Wright, an associate professor of anthropology at Appalachian State University who studies the relationship between people and material objects, says that returning even a single valued possession can mean everything to someone who has lost everything. “Having that material connection has the potential to provide that tangible, I mean, the literal touchstone to safety, to comfort, to your identity and who you are,” she said. “There’s something so human [about] our connections to these objects that really encourages us to empathize with each other and to extend that neighborliness that the storm brought to the surface.”

Standing at the end of the same field on a sunny March morning more than a year later, Holtz looks over the now-tidy grass and nearby beds of spring daffodils that are just beginning to bloom. There is no trace of the damage the river once wrought. Except only minutes before, Holtz bent down and dug up a pair of earrings and a photograph in the back yard of a nearby abandoned home. She carefully placed them in the back of her trailer, which was filled to the roof with multicolored plastic boxes of found objects, waiting to be returned.

“There is still so much stuff out here,” said Holtz, dressed in a tee shirt and jeans, a silver necklace with “fearless” engraved on it tucked under her collar. She’s not planning to stop looking anytime soon.

As of March, Holtz has returned over 400 possessions to their rightful owners. But roughly 800 items — toy trains, Christmas ornaments, baseball trophies, heaps of photos, a drum set, jewelry, on and on — remain unclaimed in a 6 by 12 foot trailer she transports back and forth from her home in Raleigh, four hours away. What follows is a spotlight on just a few of those worldly possessions — three that have been successfully returned and two that are still lost.


RETURNED & FOUND – STILL LOST

Denise and Greg Carraux — 28-year-old love letters

•RETURNED
In December 2024, while searching for lost objects in the area in and around the football field, Holtz and her volunteers found three postcards, still intact and readable. Based on information visible on the cards, each was sent from Switzerland to Houston, Texas, within the same two weeks during the spring of 1998. Holtz cleaned the cards, took photos of them and posted her find online in the hopes of hearing from the owners.

Nine months later in September 2025, Greg Carraux, 67, received a message on his phone from an unknown number with a photo of the postcards and a note asking if they belonged to him. At the time, one of Holtz’s volunteers, Jill Alexander, was going through any items with names on them and trying to find their information via Google.

He showed the images to his wife, Denise Carraux, 66, who immediately recognized what they were.

“People say ‘it’s only material things,’ but when you look at it, it’s like, you lost the light, you lost everything. So basically, at 67 I’m starting over again,” said Greg Carraux, who explained the couple moved to the area only four months before the storm. The floods washed away many of the valuable items they had brought with them from Houston, Texas, valuables collected over years and generations.

The postcards were keepsakes from the very beginning of their relationship. Right after the two met in early May 1998, Greg went away on vacation for 10 days. Each day he wrote a letter to Denise about his travels. From those letters their romance blossomed. To Denise and Greg, the sentimental value and history of the postcards make them irreplaceable.

“Things are very important because they capture your history,” Denise said. “I’m just so happy to have them.”

Luckily, two more postcards were found and returned to the couple this March.


Mandy Wallace — A 1976 Jim Beam decanter

•FOUND – STILL LOST
In March 2025, while cleaning up debris along the French Broad River as a part of her work for MountainTrue, Mandy Wallace, 55, came across a tiny piece of ceramic glass poking out of the mud. She bent over to pull it out, expecting a fragment, and was surprised to see a fully intact ceramic Jim Beam decanter emerge in the shape of a small orange fox.

“It was the very first found item for our organization,” Wallace said. “The beginning of all of this.”

Earlier that month, Wallace along with 10 other full-time workers had been hired by MountainTrue to handle debris cleanup along the rivers after the storm. Including Wallace, all of the new hires had lost their jobs due to damage from the storm. The non-profit had received a small grant from the Land of Sky Regional Council, a multi-county, local government, planning and development organization, to support the cleanup initiative.

Since onboarding what Wallace calls the “OG Debris Team,” 92 workers have been added to the organization’s cleanup crew thanks to another $10 million grant MountainTrue received in July 2025 from North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality.

As their team grew and more items were collected, Wallace was officially given the title of Artifact Recovery Technician in September 2025. She now has her own office in Weaverville, North Carolina, with shelves full of items including quilts, old china, photo albums and a recently found 3-foot-tall handcarved wooden statue of a female form.

The Jim Beam decanter sits on her office windowsill slightly away from the shelves of other objects across the room. It is joined by various other items she has collected, none of which look like they could have survived tumbling through roiling floodwaters.

“My favorite items are the ones that are just so delicate,” Wallace said.


Jack and Caitlin Wright — Baseball cards

• RETURNED
In April 2025, alongside Wallace, a team of MountainTrue volunteers were working along Sweeten Creek right off the Swannanoa River in Biltmore Village, an historic and flood-prone neighborhood on the southern edge of Asheville. Amid the debris were multiple sleeves of old baseball cards scattered along the riverbank.

In September 2025, Wallace posted the cards along with other found objects — crumpled photographs, military pins, award plaques, vases and CDs — on the group’s Facebook page.

In February 2026, Jack Wright, 43, who is of no relation to Alice Wright, reached out to claim many of the baseball cards. Back in April, his wife, Caitlin Wright, 37, had claimed their daughter’s baby photo album collected from roughly the same location the cards were found.

Even after the album was returned to the couple, however, Jack doubted that any of the other items they lost in the flood would have survived. When the storm hit, Jack’s generational family paint business, which was located roughly a mile away from Sweeten Creek and along the river, had been completely washed away. The cards along with the baby album had been about 30 feet above the ground level in storage when the river water started to rise.

“There were probably 40 to 50 cards, big three-ring binder books up there that had multiple sleeves of cards in them,” Jack said. “They’re just old cardboard from, you know, back in the ’80s and ’90s. I never would have thought they would have survived.”

But when Jack finally decided to look through the Facebook page, he was surprised to see the baseball cards that he grew up with and collected with his father.


Jill Holtz — Children’s stuffed animals

• FOUND – STILL LOST
The stuffed monkeys Holtz found at the center of a football field in Swannanoa two Decembers ago were the first objects she recovered after the storm.

“That’s what started it. I saw these stuffed animals, and was like, ‘I’m gonna find the little kid that this belongs to,'” Holtz said.

Despite posting photos of them on Facebook, Holtz still has not been able to connect with the original owner, but she hasn’t given up hope. She has, however, been able to return numerous other stuffed animals to locals around the area.

While cleaning up the field later that December, Holtz found a giant, roughly 2-foot-tall white teddy bear with a red bowtie caked with dirt. It took over a week of multiple scrubbings before it regained its original coloring.

“I think that I found it and I thought I wasn’t going to hold on to it at first because it was just so, so beyond dirty,” Holtz said. “I remember setting it out, and then I just was like, ‘I can’t leave that. I can’t do it.'”

Her perseverance paid off because shortly after posting the bear to Facebook, a woman came to claim it. The bear had been a Valentine’s gift from her husband years ago. “It was so worth it. It was full circle, complete closure,” Holtz said. “I was so thankful that it belonged to her.”

In June 2025, Holtz found another stuffed animal, a medium-sized reindeer wedged between two logs behind a nearby cornfield, where it had been stuck for nearly eight months. After she retrieved and cleaned it, she posted the image to Facebook. Not long after, a mother messaged Holtz saying it belonged to her young daughter and they set up a time to meet. “She met me with her daughter, and I was able to give it back to her,” Holtz said. “It was very emotional.”


Joel Friedman — A hand-painted tabletop

• RETURNED
Nearly four weeks after the storm, Ciro Pena, a local water guide and owner of Blue Heron Whitewater Rafting, was hiking alongside the river north of Asheville looking through debris for lost items when he stumbled upon something he recognized.

Five miles north of Marshall, North Carolina, a small town of only 800 residents, he pulled a 4-foot-tall hand-painted tabletop from the mud. The tabletop, he knew, belonged in one of only two nearby coffee shops, Zuma Coffee, owned by Joel Friedman, 65. The business, which has been open for 25 years, was known to have had four tabletops painted and gifted to the establishment by local artist Lois Simbach. When the storm hit, the river filled the shop with more than 9 feet of water, washing away three of the four tables.

Months later, in late April 2025, Friedman had a grand re-opening of Zuma Coffee and Pena showed up with the painted tabletop. Both Friedman and the community were overjoyed.

“At that point, we needed anything to lift us up. Any little victories were big victories,” Friedman said.

Only a few months before, another one of the tabletops had been found by a different local who was hiking in Del Rio, Tennessee, 30 miles downriver from Marshall. “It felt like an old friend had come back to visit. It felt like anything’s possible,” Friedman said.

Today, both of the two lost tabletops remain in the shop. One is used regularly for its original purpose while the other Friedman has slightly different plans for. “We’re gonna hang it on the wall, sort of a symbol of resiliency,” Friedman said. “Things, even if they’re in your memory, are never really lost.”

This article is part of Caught in the Current: Helene Recovery in Asheville and Beyond  a project that we have partnered on with the School of Journalism at Northeastern University.  Their enterprising students took on the story of Asheville, North Carolina, a community still dealing with the devastation of Hurricane Helene, 18 months later. As part of our mentoring program, we’re amplifying their efforts by sharing the amazing work produced by their students. Visit the official interactive magazine for the project HERE.


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A few days late (June 3rd, 1926) I wanted to wish a happy 100th birthday to Allen Ginsberg.

Autocracy Building in Ohio — Keep a Close Eye on This

We’ve talked a lot about what the Trump White House can and will do to subvert the 2026 midterms. The big picture is that with elections being run by states, based on the clear, black-letter law of the U.S. Constitution, what they can do is quite limited. And, as we’ve also noted, you build autocracies when you’re popular (often by goosing the economy in a smart and concerted way), not when you’re swirling the bowl with approval ratings in the mid-30s and falling. The point of returning to these facts is twofold. First is that a key aim of would-be autocrats is to demoralize the opposition, get people to lose hope and think there’s no point in fighting back. It’s important for democracy-defenders not to, with the best intentions, feed into that kind of psyop campaign. It is also to get people looking for the right things and not thinking in overly binary terms — elections vs. no elections, etc. This week we have news that focuses on the abuses of power we’re actually likely to see.

MS NOW broke the story that yesterday FBI agents fanned out across Ohio in pursuing some kind of investigation against a voting rights and voter registration group called Ohio Organizing Collaborative.

I don’t know anything this group specifically. But that doesn’t mean anything. I don’t know about the big voter advocacy groups in most states. Here’s the original MS NOW article. (Here’s a follow-up piece from TPM alum Ryan Reilly of NBC News, which remember is now a separate company.) The investigation apparently includes subpoenas, going to the homes of people associated with the group. They’re scare tactics and fishing expeditions. Much as the retribution efforts against Jim Comey, Letitia James, and the Broadview Six fell apart, this one likely could too. But that is all part of the game: fear and intimidation, forcing people to pay for lawyers rather than focus on voter registration.

We can’t definitively rule out the possibility that there’s something going on with this group that merits an investigation. But we know who the Trump crew is. They’ve told us. We don’t need to pretend that this is a legitimate investigation. It’s key to assume that this is exactly what it looks like: an effort to conjure marginal corrupt games by making people fear being connected or associated with groups like these and generally stymying their work, which is foundational First Amendment and election advocacy work. These investigations are corrupt and anti-constitutional, all abuses of power. And we’re going to see a lot of this because these are the things that the White House can do.

It’s also important to note how these efforts build on the White House’s other corrupt endeavors. When you purge the FBI and drive off the good people, you’re left with a mix of the bad people and those who will go along with corrupt directives because they don’t think they can leave their jobs. So you can do this in the summer of 2026 because you did the purging in 2025.

We’ll keep an eye on this, and you can help us. Are you in Ohio? Do you know more? Are there similar things going on in your state? Tell us.

"They Think You're Stupid"

Photo by Gage Skidmore

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With President Trump’s poll numbers swirling the drain, Democrats are once again asking themselves: How can we appeal to people who voted for Trump, but are unhappy with how that worked out for them? How can we gain a foothold in places that have turned against us?

There are good answers and bad answers to these questions, but even the smarter people trying to answer them tend to focus their attention in the wrong direction. Everyone is asking how to change what persuadable voters think about Democrats, but they hardly ever ask how to change what those voters think about Republicans. Not just in a short-term way or in regard to some policy decision, but in a deep, fundamental way that transcends issues and persists over time.

This is strikingly different from the way Republicans approach their electoral challenges. They work every day to convince voters that they should distrust, resent, and despise Democrats, irrespective of what those voters might think about any policy issue or turn of events. It’s something Democrats need to wise up to — and fortunately, there has seldom been a better opportunity to make persuasive arguments about their opponents.

Let’s take a quick look at some of what’s happening. First, Greg Sargent reports that Democratic group American Bridge plans to spend $50 million on the midterms, targeting “House districts in some pretty pro-Trump areas in rural North Carolina, central Pennsylvania, and Iowa farm country.” Their polling shows that “a lot of voters in these red places blame Trump and the GOP for their economic woes.”

Expanding the map into Republican territory — great idea! After all, Trump has done extraordinary damage to these places. Farmers in particular have been absolutely hammered by Trump’s policy decisions, including disastrous tariffs that resulted in the closing of foreign markets; severe cuts to agricultural and rural development programs; and the misbegotten Iran war that has driven up prices for diesel and fertilizer. While farmers are a small portion of the population even in rural areas, the farm economy is broad and involves many people, which may help explain why races in places like Iowa are much tighter than anyone thought they would be.

You could do a similar analysis of many different voting blocs that Trump won but who have now at least partially turned against him. Here’s one more article that isn’t about voters per se but exhibits the same dynamic, about how the explosion in Trump’s wealth and that of his family since he took office has been built not just on crypto scams, but on crypto scams that depended on fleecing MAGA voters who put their faith in Trump to make them rich, then quickly saw the value of their investments evaporate:

All but three of the 27 individual investors interviewed for this article said they knew of Donald Trump’s history of bankruptcies, unpaid contractors and failed ventures. Still, most said they believed that his position at the apex of American political power and what they perceived as his business acumen ensured lucrative returns on their investments. Many acknowledged doing little or no due diligence. Some said they still hold on to the hope that Trump will make things right. Others expressed regret, anger and embarrassment.

Regret, anger, and embarrassment — lots of voters no doubt feel the same way. That’s what unites these stories, and why it’s important not just to communicate that Trump screwed up, but that he did so — with the enthusiastic help of his party — because of their contempt for ordinary people. It’s not enough to say “Bad stuff happened and it was those guys’ fault.” Democrats have to make an argument that is much more personal and fundamental.

The trouble with apologizing

The professional centrists in the Democratic Party look at a moment like this one and say “Now those moderate voters will finally be open to our apology! We can go to them and say ‘We know you think we suck, and you’re right, we do suck, but we’re going to try to do better.’” More progressive Democrats find this message repugnant; in fact, for many of them the first reaction to hearing that Trump voters are realizing that he screwed them is to say “Serves you right, dumbass. Were you actually so clueless you didn’t realize he was lying to you?”

That sentiment is often accompanied by a strategic assessment that rather than wasting more time trying to appeal to Trump voters, it’s far better to devote energy to finding new voters and mobilizing those who only occasionally participate. But that strategic assessment is at least partly an emotional reaction to being told that now, after being proven right, they’re supposed to go hat in hand to the same voters who put the country in this nightmare and ask them — kindly, gently, apologetically — if they might consider voting differently in the future.

It sticks in those progressives’ craws, and it should. Because Democrats have been told the same thing for years, and it has gotten them nowhere.

I’m particularly attuned to how this plays out on the question of Democrats and rural America, but the same dynamic can be seen whenever we talk about Trump voters. The trouble is that Democrats have been lectured endlessly about how they need to apologize and listen to Trump voters so that they might make them feel more warmly toward Democrats, while barely anyone acknowledges how absolutely vital it is that they work to change how these voters feel about Republicans.

Another recent example: this well-meaning piece by Anthony Flaccavento of the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative, an effort to build support for progressive ideas in rural America. It’s all about re-establishing trust among rural folk by showing them that Democrats understand and care about them, and aren’t that different from them after all. And like every such book and article I’ve encountered in the years I’ve been reporting and researching this subject, it says barely a word about Republicans.

I continue to find this omission utterly mind-boggling.

Which is why at least part of the solution has to be for Democrats to say the following to everyone who voted for Trump and is now feeling glimmers of doubt, wherever they live:

Republicans think you’re stupid.

Not “You’re stupid for voting for Republicans,” but “Republicans think you’re stupid.” Which they absolutely do. They tell you that tax cuts for the rich will help you. They tell you when they lose it’s because of voter fraud. Trump tells you rising prices aren’t real, and this is a “golden age,” and that immigrants are the source of your problems, and that liberal protesters are all paid, and that we already won the Iran war, and that he cares about you. They pick your pocket and laugh at you behind your back.

Trump thinks you’re stupid, and so do all the other Republicans you elect, the ones who don’t do a damn thing to improve your community and then come around every four years and say you should be angry about a trans middle schooler playing softball or some other story they came up with so you won’t hold them responsible for what they’ve done. Go to the polls, fix an image of some snooty liberal in your head, shout “You think you’re better’n me?” and pull that lever for the party of tax cuts for the rich and deregulation for corporations. That’s what they want you to do, because they think you’re stupid.

This is a very difficult argument for most Democratic politicians to make. Whenever they talk to Trump voters they quiver with fear, terrified of saying something insulting or unkind. Because they’re thinking only “How can I get these people to like me?” rather than “How can I get these people to focus their anger where it ought to go?” The they-think-you’re-stupid argument is effective because it plays on powerful emotions, and because in this case, it’s true.

Another benefit of putting They think you’re stupid at the center of the appeal Democrats make to Trump voters is that it will help them look like they aren’t so weak. That perception of weakness is the biggest problem the Democratic Party has, and it’s not about whether they support “tough” policies on crime or foreign invasions. It’s about how they don’t seem like they have the courage of their convictions, especially when they try to talk to moderate and conservative voters.

And yes, some Trump voters may be offended when you tell them that Republicans think they’re stupid. It could make them suspect that they are stupid, and they got suckered, which nobody likes to admit. But if you go to a rural area and say “I just want to listen” without saying “You got screwed, and the people you voted for are the ones who did it to you,” you’ll get nowhere.

It may seem like a fantasy that significant numbers of Trump supporters will awaken as if from a long slumber, squint as their eyes adjust to the light, and say “Hold on — Republicans do think we’re stupid!” But one of the reasons it hasn’t happened on any scale is that no one has been making the case to them. No one has had the guts to tell them the truth. This is the best opportunity Democrats have had in years to make that case, and if they let it go by without taking advantage of it, they’d be fools.

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Safety and nation-building in Mexico

That is the topic of my latest Free Press column, here is one excerpt:

Consider the special nature of Mexican politics. First and foremost, Mexico is still not a mature nation-state. By one estimate, drug gangs may control as much as one-third of its territory. That might sound bizarre, but from the standpoint of Mexican history, it is not new or unusual.

Start with the 19th century. When Mexico won its independence from Spain in 1821, what we now call Central America joined the new country only briefly and then split off, even though that land was under the same Spanish jurisdiction. Those cultures and economies were not sufficiently unified to come along.

After independence, the state of Yucatán rebelled repeatedly, almost claiming its independence. In the 1840s, the U.S. declared war on Mexico and took away about half of its territory. Texas already had seceded to become an independent republic. In 1857, Mexico fought a civil war. The French invaded in 1861, and by 1864 they helped install a Habsburg, Maximilian, as emperor. Yet Maximilian never came close to controlling the entire country, and was quickly deposed and executed. The 1910 Mexican Revolution killed about 10 percent of the population by some estimates.

The rest of the 20th century was more peaceful, but much of Mexico never fell under unitary rule as did the U.S. and Western Europe. The more remote areas were mostly on their own, and they regarded the government as a potential oppressor rather than a savior. So when the drug trade heated up in Mexico in the 1990s as Colombian traffickers were partially thwarted, drug gangs were able to operate in many parts of Mexico with impunity. Eventually, they became the de facto rulers of those territories, supplying public goods such as general protection in addition to running their illegal businesses. All for a high price, of course, as extortion is still the ruling principle in those parts of the country. If you buy avocados from Mexico, for instance, there is a good chance that part of your money is going to pay tribute to drug gangs.

Another significant fact about Mexico is the size and power of its central government. It spends just short of 23 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), relatively low for a country of its level of development. By contrast, Brazil, which has roughly comparable living standards, has a central government that spends over 32 percent of that country’s GDP. If the Brazilian government is too large, Mexico’s is too weak and too small, most of all because Mexico cannot beat back its drug gangs by brute force or preempt them in the first place.

Mexico as a topic will never become obsolete, not for the United States at least.

The post Safety and nation-building in Mexico appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Why More Companies Are Tightening Internal Payroll Verification Processes

Photo by Money Knack on Unsplash

Payroll systems sit at the center of nearly every business operation, yet many companies historically treated payroll verification as a background administrative task rather than a major operational priority. As businesses become more digitally connected and workforces grow more flexible, however, payroll oversight has become far more important for preventing errors, reducing fraud risks, and maintaining accurate financial records across departments.

Remote work, temporary staffing, freelance contracts, and multi-location operations have all increased the amount of documentation businesses process every month. Small inconsistencies that once affected only a handful of records can now create wider operational problems if verification systems are weak or outdated. Because of this, many companies are reviewing internal payroll procedures more carefully than before.

Businesses Are Reviewing Documentation More Closely

One major shift involves companies paying closer attention to how payroll documents are created, stored, and verified internally. Businesses increasingly want systems that reduce inconsistencies between employee records, tax filings, payment histories, and onboarding documentation before mistakes spread across multiple departments.

This has also increased interest in digital payroll tools designed to simplify documentation workflows and record generation. Businesses exploring systems connected to a check stub maker  are often focused on improving payroll organization, employee record accessibility, and administrative consistency as staffing structures become more complex. For growing companies especially, organized documentation tends to reduce confusion during audits, employee verification requests, and internal financial reviews.

Multi-Location Operations Create More Administrative Pressure

Businesses operating across several offices, warehouses, or service areas usually process much larger volumes of payroll data than companies working from a single location. Different schedules, overtime rules, staffing structures, and local regulations can all increase the likelihood of payroll inconsistencies if records are not reviewed carefully.

Operational businesses that manage large facilities or commercial properties often deal with additional coordination challenges tied to maintenance scheduling, vendor access, and staffing movement between locations. Companies handling large-scale floor care and facility upkeep sometimes work with equipment from https://www.sweepscrub.com/  while organizing maintenance-heavy environments where accurate scheduling and labor tracking become essential to keeping payroll records consistent across multiple teams and job sites.

Remote Work Changed Payroll Oversight

Remote and hybrid work environments introduced new payroll complications that many companies had not fully prepared for beforehand. Employees now work across multiple states, countries, or tax jurisdictions while maintaining flexible schedules that may vary significantly week to week.

This has forced businesses to track hours, contractor agreements, reimbursements, and tax classifications more carefully than in traditional office settings. Companies that once relied on simpler in-person oversight often discovered that remote operations require stronger digital documentation systems to maintain payroll accuracy consistently.

Verification Helps Reduce Fraud and Errors

Photograph illustrating this sponsored article

Payroll fraud and administrative mistakes can create expensive problems even when they begin as relatively small inconsistencies. Duplicate payments, incorrect tax withholding, inaccurate overtime calculations, and unauthorized account changes may go unnoticed for long periods if verification systems are weak.

Stronger review procedures help businesses identify unusual activity earlier before financial discrepancies grow larger. Many companies now use layered approval systems, automated payroll monitoring, and stricter documentation requirements to reduce the likelihood of preventable administrative issues.

Employee Expectations Around Transparency Are Growing

Employees increasingly expect payroll information to remain accessible, accurate, and easy to review without unnecessary delays. Mistakes involving direct deposits, overtime records, or tax forms can quickly affect trust within the workplace if businesses struggle to resolve issues efficiently.

Because of this, companies are placing greater emphasis on systems that improve visibility for both employees and administrative teams. Clear documentation and accessible payroll records usually reduce misunderstandings before they escalate into larger operational frustrations.

Administrative Stability Supports Long-Term Growth

As businesses expand, payroll systems often become more difficult to manage than owners initially expect. Growth typically brings additional contractors, more departments, changing schedules, and increasingly complex reporting requirements that place pressure on older administrative systems.

Companies tightening payroll verification processes are often responding to this operational complexity rather than reacting only to isolated mistakes. Organized documentation, consistent review procedures, and reliable payroll oversight increasingly support broader business stability as companies continue scaling across more flexible and distributed work environments.


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Heat and Severe Thunderstorms in the Eastern U.S.

Friday assorted links

1. Is there too much free parking in NYC? (NYT)

2. New Malcolm Gladwell book forthcoming on violence in America.  Ready for pre-order.

3. Manufacturing requirements are killing gene and cell therapy.

4. “Long-term exposure to urban air pollution damages the heart even at the relatively low levels found in many developed countries, a cardiac imaging study in Canada has found.” (FT)

5. Scott Sumner defends the Boomers.

6. What went wrong with German trains? (FT)

7. Why do people wander in a counterclockwise direction? (NYT)

8. Seb Krier: “Over the past few months I’ve been working on a very exciting project: a new $10m fund for research on multi-agent multi-principal AGI safety! Instead of focusing on single agent alignment and centralized control, we’re looking to support research focusing on multi-agent settings, mechanism design, cooperative AI, and coordination problems.”

9. And the great David Hockney is gone…

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Wet thoughts

Wet lab.

“Wet lab” was a new term to me, I had to look it up – it’s a laboratory with chemicals where there’s spill risk etc. I have a physics background myself and the closest I came to liquids was liquid nitrogen, and when you spill that it just boils furiously and goes away.

Don’t do this: if you put your open hand into a dewar of liquid nitrogen, you can hold it under the liquid at -196C/-320F because the boiling on the surface of your hand makes an insulating quilt. It’s a fun game. Closing your hand will create traps and you’ll get horrible burns.


Wet market.

The Wuhan wet markets entered the vernacular during Covid right? There are new things you need to refer to in a new context.


Wet-bulb temperature.

"The lowest temperature that can be reached by the evaporation of water" (Wikipedia).

It’s a function of air temperature and humidity and humans can’t survive about a wet-bulb temperature of 35C, equivalent to 40C with a relative humidity of 75%. i.e. sweating is no longer effective so you heat up and your proteins denature.

I first encountered this term in The Ministry for the Future (2020) by Kim Stanley Robinson which traces the worsening climate crisis, and wow, there’s a new term for a new context that it feels like we will be seeing in the news more in the coming years.


Wet pub.

A pub that does not serve food.


Wet signature.

It’s like “landline:” we never needed a word for a phone that was tied to the wall before there were phones that weren’t tied to the wall.

We never needed a term to say that this signature was made by an actual present human before we had photocopies and then computers.

Although somehow a robotic, automated autopen is granted “wet signature” status?

Autopens as previously discussed, which also mentions Margaret Atwood’s Longpen which is not automated and requires her to be syncronously present – but perhaps a 1,000 miles away from where the signature happens.


Wet hire, wet lease.

Equipment hire that includes human operators is wet hire.

As an aircraft operator, leasing a plane that includes staff is a wet lease.

Wet implies humans in both cases.


Wetware.

Hardware, software, wetware.

Back in the 80s, wetware - used somewhat ironically - meant your brain: “thinking” is running a task on the 3lb of wet meat in your skull.

I get the feeling that wetware today means lab-grown neurons? Wetware computers that run on cerebral organoids.


We didn’t really have words that weren’t made by humans until recently. Except for divine words and random words, both exalted.

I suppose we had widely reproduced words, and we call that “copy.”

But from now on, I guess, most words will be words not by humans, and that’s the new default. So we’ll need a name to specifically mean human words.

Wet words?

These are wet words!

One day we’ll have cyborg sleeves that move our arms for us and we’ll need a word for our own movements, and brain-computer interfaces that inject ideas and unearth memories and do reasoning for us, and we’ll need to call out plain old human brain-work: look ma I thunk it all myself.

Wet thoughts.


ESA astronaut assignment on Artemis 3 part of negotiations on revised Artemis roles

Parmitano

The assignment of an ESA astronaut to Artemis 3 is part of negotiations for revised roles in the overall effort, with a goal of getting its astronauts on the moon.

The post ESA astronaut assignment on Artemis 3 part of negotiations on revised Artemis roles appeared first on SpaceNews.

HyImpulse signs letter of intent with Oman’s spaceport

The maiden flight of the HyImpulse SR75 from the Koonibba Test Range in South Australia in May 2024. Credit: HyImpulse

MILAN — Etlaq Spaceport, Oman’s commercial spaceport, and German-based small launch provider HyImpulse have signed a letter of intent to explore future launch-related activities and a potential operational presence in […]

The post HyImpulse signs letter of intent with Oman’s spaceport appeared first on SpaceNews.

Tilebox Launches Verifiable AI Workflows for Satellite Data

Tilebox logo

DOVER, DELAWARE — JUNE 11, 2026 — Tilebox today announced infrastructure for verifiable AI workflows on Earth observation data, giving teams a way to use agents through governed data, repeatable […]

The post Tilebox Launches Verifiable AI Workflows for Satellite Data appeared first on SpaceNews.

K2 Space, Rocket Lab win key supplier roles in Space Force satcom program

K2 Space and Rocket Lab will supply spacecraft buses to SES and Viasat for the military's next-generation protected satcom program

The post K2 Space, Rocket Lab win key supplier roles in Space Force satcom program appeared first on SpaceNews.

H3 successfully returns to flight

H3 launch

Japan’s H3 rocket launched June 11 on its first flight since a failure in December, placing six smallsats in orbit.

The post H3 successfully returns to flight appeared first on SpaceNews.

In aerospace, AI isn’t replacing workers. It’s filling a shortage

Apex assembly line

Aerospace executives see AI not as a replacement for workers but as a necessary tool for helping an overstretched industrial base

The post In aerospace, AI isn’t replacing workers. It’s filling a shortage appeared first on SpaceNews.

AAC Clyde Space wins ESA contract to complete maritime-monitoring constellation

SAN FRANCISCO – The European Space Agency awarded AAC Clyde Space a 10.9 million euro ($12.6 million) contract to complete development and demonstrate VHF Data Exchange System (VDES) satellites for […]

The post AAC Clyde Space wins ESA contract to complete maritime-monitoring constellation appeared first on SpaceNews.

Vandenberg offers new launch site for small and medium rockets

SLC-9

The U.S. Space Force is seeking potential users of a new launch site at Vandenberg Space Force Base reserved for smaller rockets.

The post Vandenberg offers new launch site for small and medium rockets appeared first on SpaceNews.

Understanding what’s next for orbital data centers

This episode of Space Minds is from SpaceNews’ recent event on orbital data centers. There, SpaceNews journalists talk with industry leaders and analysts about what’s driving interest in the technology, […]

The post Understanding what’s next for orbital data centers appeared first on SpaceNews.

Senate NDAA backs plan to fold SDA, Space RCO into Space Force

The committee's 2027 defense bill would eliminate separate statutory requirements for the two acquisition organizations while advancing broader Pentagon procurement reforms

The post Senate NDAA backs plan to fold SDA, Space RCO into Space Force appeared first on SpaceNews.

A Bad Week for D.C. Crime Stats

Unlike last week, there’s no good news. As of 9am today, D.C. had reported five more homicides this week (though one of those occurred several weeks ago), yielding a total for the year of 37*. At this time last year, there had been 72 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, over the same time period, there had been 103 homicides. Still a vast improvement over last year, but a very bad week.

That said, other categories of crimes nosed down, so that’s some good news. And we are still well on pace for another 33 percent drop in homicides for the third straight year.

Hoping for a better week next week.

*Three of the 40 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence).

All in on AI at Astra

Astra went public in July 2021 through a SPAC merger. Credit: Astra

Chris Kemp thinks he could be the last person left working at Astra — but not for the reason most people might think. His company rode the SPAC boom five […]

The post All in on AI at Astra appeared first on SpaceNews.

Best books of 2026 so far (a small publishing adventure, with pictures)

 At one month post-publication of Moral Economics, I continue to get small bits of feedback.  Here's one, from the editors of Amazon.

Best Business & Leadership Books of 2026 So Far 

 

 Neither first nor last on the list:

 ,,,

And that list is one among many that Amazon compiles:

 

 

With so many best books, I asked Microsoft Copilot for an estimate of total numbers of new books annually, and got this table, which notes that the vast majority of new books are self-published. (I wonder how many are written by A.I....):

 

 

While I'm on the subject, here's a picture a friend sent me from a bookstore in Chicago's OHare airport. (Maybe Moral Economics is an airport book after all:)

IMG_0878.jpeg 

###########

Afternoon update (this just in, still June 12): It turns out Moral Economics is a Best  Book Club book too:)

 

Here Comes the Sun(screen)

I have been banging on about FDA delay in approving new sunscreens since 2013. Well it has finally happened. Twenty six years after being approved by the European Union and thirteen years after then-FDA Commissioner Margaret A. Hamburg told lawmakers that sorting out the sunscreen issue was “one of the highest priorities” the FDA has approved a new sunscreeen ingredient.

The US has been slow because it regulates sunscreens under the the more expensive, time consuming and rigorous drug standard rather than the less expensive cosmetic standard. Does this mean that our sunscreens are safer? No.

In fact, American sunscreens may be less safe.

Sunscreens protect by blocking ultraviolet rays from penetrating the skin. Ultraviolet B (UVB) rays, with their shorter wavelength, primarily affect the outer skin layer and are the main cause of sunburn. In contrast, ultraviolet A (UVA) rays have a longer wavelength, penetrate more deeply into the skin and contribute to wrinkling, aging and the development of melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer. In many ways, UVA rays are more dangerous than UVB rays because they are more insidious. UVB rays hit when the sun is bright, and because they burn they come with a natural warning. UVA rays, though, can pass through clouds and cause skin cancer without generating obvious skin damage.

The problem is that American sunscreens work better against UVB rays than against the more dangerous UVA rays. That is, they’re better at preventing sunburn than skin cancer. In fact, many U.S. sunscreens would fail European standards for UVA protection. Precisely because European sunscreens can draw on more ingredients, they can protect better against UVA rays. Thus, instead of being safer, U.S. sunscreens may be riskier.

European sunscreens are also more pleasant to apply, and because they work better with makeup they are probably used more often as part of a skin care regimen, which may reduce the prevalence of skin cancer. Once again, the United States’ slower and seemingly more risk-averse approach actually increases risk.

The lesson, for those who are listening, is general.

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A philosophy of home

Clay sculpture of two figures, one seated with hand raised, the other standing, both focused on a central pot.

The household is a community, as much as the state, and ancient philosophy had much more to say about it than we think

- by Sandrine Bergès

Read on Aeon

Again, the research paper format will be dying out

From Xudong Han:

‘Recently, I came across a paper co-authored by 37 authors from Stanford, CMU, Michigan, and elsewhere: *The Last Human-Written Paper*.

The core argument is pretty brutal: the paper format we’ve been using for centuries might already be obsolete in the AI era.

The authors point out two “invisible taxes” that we’ve long overlooked:

One is the narrative tax. To tell a compelling story, we delete failed experiments, dead ends, and overturned hypotheses. What AI reads is a “walkthrough guide” to beating the game, but it misses the truly valuable “pitfall logs.”

The other is the engineering tax. The implementation details in papers are usually enough to convince reviewers, but not enough for an Agent to directly reproduce. Many key tricks are still buried in the authors’ heads, code comments, and Slack threads.

So the authors propose ARA, transforming papers directly into “research packages” that Agents can read and execute: not just telling you the conclusions, but packaging in how they were reached, how the code runs, where the evidence chain is, and which paths led nowhere.

I think the most intriguing part of this paper is that it’s not discussing how AI can help humans write papers—it’s asking:

When AI also becomes a reader and executor of papers, should papers still look like they do today?

In the future, the core of research output might no longer be “how much it resembles a paper,” but whether it can be understood, reproduced, traced, and iteratively extended by AI.

Humans have been writing papers for centuries—next, we might start writing research packages for Agents to execute.

Here is my earlier post on whether the research paper will die out.  By the way, as a side point has anyone mentioned that, due to writing detection abilities of AI models, anonymous referee reports are now a thing of the past?

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Orwell on Dickens and progress

What is more striking, in a seemingly ‘progressive’ radical, is that he is not mechanically minded. He shows no interest either in the details of machinery or in the things machinery can do. As Gissing remarks, Dickens nowhere describes a railway journey with anything like the enthusiasm he shows in describing journeys by stage-coach. In nearly all of his  books one has a curious feeling that one is living in the first quarter of the nineteenth century, and in fact, he does tend to return to this period. Little Dorrit, written in the middle fifties, deals with the late twenties; Great Expectations (1861) is not dated, but evidently deals with the twenties and thirties. Several of the inventions and discoveries which have made the modern world possible (the electric telegraph, the breech-loading gun, India-rubber, coal gas, wood-pulp paper) first appeared in Dickens’s lifetime, but he scarcely notes them in his books. Nothing is queerer than the vagueness with which he speaks of Doyce’s ‘invention’ in Little Dorrit. It is represented as something extremely ingenious and revolutionary, ‘of great importance to his country and his fellow-creatures’, and it is also an important minor link in the book; yet we are never told what the ‘invention’ is! On the other hand, Doyce’s physical appearance is hit off with the typical Dickens touch; he has a peculiar way of moving his thumb, a way characteristic of engineers. After that, Doyce is firmly anchored in one’s memory; but, as usual, Dickens has done it by fastening on something external.

There are people (Tennyson is an example) who lack the mechanical faculty but can see the social possibilities of machinery. Dickens has not this stamp of mind. He shows very little consciousness of the future. When he speaks of human progress it is usually in terms of moral progress men growing better; probably he would never admit that men are only as good as their technical development allows them to be. At this point the gap between Dickens and his modern analogue, H.G. Wells, is at its widest. Wells wears the future round his neck like a mill-stone, but Dickens’s unscientific cast of mind is just as damaging in a different way. What it does is to make any positive attitude more difficult for him. He is hostile to the feudal, agricultural past and not in real touch with the industrial present. Well, then, all that remains is the future (meaning Science, ‘progress’, and so forth), which hardly enters into his thoughts. Therefore, while attacking everything in sight, he has no definable standard of comparison. As I have pointed out already, he attacks the current educational system with perfect justice, and yet, after all, he has no remedy to offer except kindlier schoolmasters. Why did he not indicate what a school might have been? Why did he not have his own sons educated according to some plan of his own, instead of sending them to public schools to be stuffed with Greek? Because he lacked that kind of imagination. He has an infallible moral sense, but very little intellectual curiosity. And here one comes upon something which really is an enormous deficiency in Dickens, something, that really does make the nineteenth century seem remote from us — that he has no idea of work.

Here is the full essay, excellent throughout.

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The Week Observed: June 5, 2026

What City Observatory Did This Week

 

ODOT goes full Orwell on claims about project schedules.  ODOT projects are always on-time and on-schedule–no matter how many times we have to revise the schedule and forget or bury our earlier promises.  The reality is that for major project, the Oregon Department of Transportation routinely blows through announced schedules.  The now $15 billion Interstate Bridge Project, which was supposed to have finished its environmental review and gotten a record of decision in 2023, is still waiting for that approval, more than two years later.

The I-205 Abernethy Bridge, which ODOT said would be completed in 2025, is still dragging on and will continue through at least 2027–with further work needed to protect this seismic retrofit project from soil liquefaction lasting through 2030 (and costing an additional $130 million).  The delays are  bad in their own right–and are a key factor in driving up costs (and further enriching ocntractors and consultants).  But ODOT continues to deny that anything is wrong.  The former IBR project director falsely claimed that the agency never mentioned a 2023 due date for finishing the project’s environmental impact (it’s in the legislative record).  And ODOT continues to talk about completing the Abernethy Bridge project “on-time” even though we’re the better part of a year past their originally announced completion date.  ODOT has a problem meeting any of its stated schedules–and you can’t fix a problem you don’t admit you have.

Must Read

 

Maryland draws the line at $5 billion for the cost of rebuilding the Key Bridge.  Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key bridge became the poster-child for American infrastructure after the container ship Dali crashed into the bridge in 2024.  Federal and state governments moved quickly to remove the damage structure and committed to plans to replace the bridge, originally at an estimated cost of about $1.7 billion.  The state inked a deal with construction firm Kiewit to commence work on some new pilings, even before the design was settled.  The cost, not surprisingly rose, and the latest reports are that Kiewit has asked for as much as $9 billion.  But the Marylnad Transportation Department is–unlike some state highway agencies we could mention (looking at you ODOT and WSDOT), isn’t simply rolling over.  Maryland transportation secretary Kathryn Thomson said $5 million remains their cost estimate:

“To the extent you’ve heard substantially higher numbers, those are not our numbers, and I continue to say those will never be our numbers,” Thomson said. “So we’re in the 5-billion-ish range.”

The state is moving to terminate–in its words “off-ramp”–Kiewit and find a new construction contractor.  The willingness to say “no” rather than allow a contractor to use their considerable leverage to extract more and more public funds, seems to be a rare commodity among state transportation agencies.  We’ll continue to follow this project.

Let’s start tearing down urban freeways.  A new organization has been formed in New York with the explicit goal of eliminating damaging urban freeways.  Fittingly called “Offramp” the organization
This is a refreshingly honest, urbanist take on what to do with freeways.  Too many cities seem obsessed with expensive and largely cosmetic “cover” and “cap and stitch” projects that put tiny band-aids on the gaping wounds caused by urban freeways.  Typically, these efforts are just an excuse to indefinitely continue, and often expand, urban highways and their polluting, disruptive traffic.  It’s time to end them, not pretend to “mend” them.
Road pricing for DC?  Which city will be the next to give road pricing a try?  After New York’s dramatic success implementing congestion pricing, you’d think that other cities wrestling with congestion problems and stuggling to pay for mass transit would leap to emulate this best practice.  Washington DC undertook a detailed study to see how pricing might work in the nation’s capital.  Unfortunately the DC Mayor Muriel Bowser tried to bury the report–which was eventually made public.  It shows that pricing would dramatically reduce congestion, improve speeds and lower travel times for commuters, and provide millions for transport improvements (just like in NYC).    The study estimates that a ten dollar daily inbound “cordon” toll similar to that in lower Manhattan would reduce traffic by about 7 percent (enough to save the average commuter 20 hours per year), and would generate nearly $350 million in gross revenue.
Greater Greater Washington has a summary of the report, and explains that the big beneficiaries of pricing would be automobile commuters, who, as in British parlance, would actually discover that pricing provides “value for money”:  you pay a congestion fee, but in return you get a faster trip.

 

ODOT re-writes history to hide its culpability for cost overruns

The Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) is currently engaged in an audacious attempt to re-write history. In testimony to the newly formed Joint Transportation Oversight Committee, agency officials claimed that the staggering cost overruns on projects like the I-205 Abernethy Bridge were the result of “rushed” estimates forced upon them by the 2017 Legislature. The facts, however, tell a much different story of expensive, detailed planning followed by a complete collapse in fiscal accountability.

The Myth of the “Slap-Dash” Estimate.  ODOT Deputy Director Travis Brouwer recently implied the Abernethy project was greenlit based on incomplete, “back-of-the-envelope” math provided during the 2017 legislative session. This is simply untrue.

  • The Detailed Directive: The 2017 Legislature did not fund the Abernethy project; instead, it specifically directed ODOT to produce a comprehensive “Cost-to-Complete” study.

  • The $12.5 Million Report: ODOT spent nearly six months and $12.5 million on preliminary engineering, hiring the consulting firm HDR to produce a 169-page technical report.

  • “Pretty Confident”: In 2018, HDR officials testified to the Legislature that they had advanced the design to 15-25% completion, consulted with contractors, and were “pretty confident” in their $248 million estimate for the bridge

On-Time? Hardly.  The re-writing of history extends to the project’s schedule. While ODOT Director Kris Strickler recently claimed the team is managing for “on-time” completion, the project is already a year behind its original 2025 deadline. New reports suggest “Winter 2026” is the goal, with riverbank restoration dragging into 2030.

ODOT is attempting to re-write history to explain away its failures to accurately forecast project costs.  In recent testimonty to the Oregon Legislature, ODOT officials claimed that the reason that the cost for the Salem Center Street Bridge and the I-205 Abernethy Bridge and other projects had doubled, or tripled, had to do with being required to submit rushed and incomplete estimates to the 2017 Legislature.  To hear ODOT officials tell the story, the reason that the costs turned out to be much higher than they told the Legislature was because they weren’t given the time or the money to do a proper job of preparing a cost estimate.

That’s simply untrue, especially for the I-205 Abernethy Bridge Project, ODOT’s current largest project.  The 2017 Legislature actually didn’t authorize funding for I-205, but instead, as directed by legislation, ODOT prepared a detailed “cost to complete” report that would be a reliable and carefully researched estimate.  ODOT hired an outside consulting firm (HDR) at a cost of $12.5 million and took nearly six months to prepare the estimate.  In testimony to the Legislature and Oregon Transportation Commission, HDR officials assured that they had consulted with potential contractors, had assessed the market, cost and schedule risks, allowed for an adequate contingency and were “pretty confident” in the accuracy of their estimate, which  advanced design to the 15-25 percent stage.  Far from being a slap-dash, back-of-the envelope estimate prepared under the gun of a legislative debate, ODOT engaged in a very detailed–and expensive–cost estimate.

The estimated cost of the Abernethy Bridge, (Phase IA of the larger I-205 project) was set at $248 million in that 2018 “Cost to Complete report.  As we’ve chronicled at City Observatory, when put out for bid in 2021, the project’s price tag doubled to $495 million, and since then the project’s total cost has now more than tripled to a total of $815 million–and promises to go higher.  That huge cost overrun has prompted some significant questions by the Legislature.  And ODOT officials have, retroactively, tried to re-write history to make it seem like they didn’t have time to put together a reasonable estimate.

Re-Writing History

In January, 2026, the newly formed Joint Transportation Oversight Committee dug into the extent and reasons for repeated cost overruns on major ODOT projects, what we at City Observatory have described as its “Reign of Error.”  In testimony to that committee on January 14, ODOT’s deputy director, Travis Brouwer claimed that the Legislature approved the I-205 Abernethy project based on a rushed or incomplete cost estimate (as with the Salem’s Center Street Bridge). Brouwer implied the Abernethy cost estimate it was a slap dash estimate provided during the 2017 session (as was the Salem Center Street Bridge).  Brouwer testified:

What we have seen is that, in particular, with the Center Street Bridge, I would probably hold up to you that.  That project was directed to move forward before we had a level of information that would really give us a firm sense of the ultimate cost and scope of the project. I think if you make a similar argument on I 205/Abernathy Bridge.  Again, that was in HB 2017, we were directed to do some work.
(emphasis added)

Brouwer omitted many salient facts from his testimony.

First, in fact, in 2017, the Legislature did not appropriate funds for Abernethy, instead, it directed ODOT to produce a detailed “Cost-to-Complete” study for the project.

Second, ODOT undertook a six-month long study, hiring consulting firm HDR,  It produced an 169-page report and with an additional 93 pages of appendices–about the same length and level of detail as the recent $17.7 billion cost estimate of the Interstate Bridge Replacement Project..  According to the study, ODOT had spent about $12.5 million on preliminary engineering for the project.

The study evaluated various design solutions, and construction packages and specifications and different delivery methods.  It estimated that the Abernethy Bridge (which classified as Phase A) could be constructed for $248 million, and that (Phase B) the widening of I-205 between West Linn and Stafford Road, would cost and additional $198 million to construct.

The HDR Cost to Complete  study was presented to the Oregon Transportation Commission in January of 2018, and to the Oregon Legislature’s Joint Transportation Committee in May of 2018.

The $12.5 million report that advanced Abernethy to 15% design in 2018.

In both cases, Steve Drahota of HDR presented the cost estimates, claiming that they had advanced the project to between 15-25% of design, done a very elaborate, disaggregated analysis, with separate risk estimates for different project components.  They also said they’d engaged a group of construction contractors to come help validate the estimates.  He also said they included an allowance for inflation and expressed the estimate in year of construction dollars (with completion scheduled for 2025).  He testified that they were confident of the estimate.  They also looked at alternative phasing and delivery packages.(For what it’s worth, Drahota’s HDR was also a key consultant for Rose Quarter, a project where the project cost went from $450 million to $2.1 billion). ODOT commenced construction in 2022.  Bids came it at $500 million–double the “Cost to Complete” estimate.  Over the next three years they escalated successively to $622 million, $750 million and finally to $815 million (and are expected to go higher, due to as yet unresolved disputes with contractors).

 

ODOT is trying to re-write history about the Abernethy.  They want to blame the legislature for ultimate cost increases because the legislature directed the project be undertaken, even though ODOT didn’t have time to do a proper cost estimate.  As we know:
1. The 2017 Legislature did not authorize funding for Abernethy
2. The 2017 Legislature directed ODOT to instead prepare a “Cost to Complete” Report by Feb 1, 2018.
3. ODOT hired HDR and did detailed work on Cost to Complete
4.  The Legislature still didn’t authorize funding for Abernethy:  OTC moved ahead on its own, pretending to find money from tolling.

5.  It wasn’t until 2021 that the Legislature allowed OTC to divert funds from Urban Mobility Strategy and Rose Quarter (even though it provided no more money; because in theory ODOT was still going to pay for the project with toll revenues).

Together, these facts, contradict Travis Brouwer’s characterization of the Abernethy from the January 14, 2026 Joint Transportation Oversight Committee Hearing.
Here’s the Steve Drahota testifying to the Joint Transportation Committee of the Legislature on May 23, 2018:

Okay, all right, so that was really the What now is the well, how much and so, based on well, really a 15 to 25% preliminary design, the total budget cost of 500 million and that assumes a bunch of things with it. So one of those big assumptions is a schedule that has a construction completed by January of 2025. Within that $500 million is really built on these various components, preliminary engineering, which includes all the planning work that ODOT did in advance of the consultant team coming on board right away, acquisition for projects at this scale. This is really a fairly small amount of right-of-way, and that was, this goes back to that really streamlining and minimizing impacts utility relocation. There aren’t that many utilities to be relocated compared to many other projects, some of the bridges have some so the overwhelming cost is construction at 450 million. And so we approach the construction cost through a somewhat unique methodology for generating the number so number one is we built up what we thought all of our quantities were even at this 15% level. So getting into true, how much material for each of these different construction items are we generating? And then we ask ourselves, okay, well, how much do we trust that we know that quantity? And so we applied this zero to 20% contingency variability. Basically, do we need more information in which we think we need to put some additional money on it, or we feel pretty confident about it right now, even if it’s really early design scenario. And then beyond that, we said, listen, then let’s apply 15% unknowns contingency, because any number of things can change within the definition that we have. So at the end of the day, we have a 27% contingency, which is actually slightly lower than a lot of other projects. We feel pretty confident about it, because we define those types of rest. The other thing $500 million estimate is escalation to the midpoint of construction for the construction packages themselves, like we’re seeing in the marketplace, especially with the House bill, 2017 projects coming online, escalation is real, and so including that into the cost estimate itself is, is how we generate this $500 million number.

ODOT has attempted to re-write the history of the Abernethy Bridge project in five other respects:

First, it has implied that the project was funded under HB 2017, in the 2017 legislative session; as noted above, the agency was only directed to prepare a cost-to-complete study.

Second, it has mis-represented the source of funds to be used to pay for the project.

Third, it has tried to alter or cover up the original estimated cost of the project.  For example, it told the Oregonian in 2026 that the project’s original estimated cost was $500 million–not the $248 million from the 2018 Cost-to-Complete report.

Fourth, it has concealed and mis-represented the completion date of the project.

Fifth, the agency’s project tracking website, which is required by law to accurately convey most or all of this information, contains incomplete, inaccurate and misleading information about the project.

Similar re-writing of on-time performance of the Abernethy Bridge Project

As just one detailed example, take a look at the schedule claimed for the Abernethy Bridge project.  ODOT always claims that its projects are under-budget and on-schedule.  Take their largest current project, widening and seismic improvements to the I-205 Abernethy Bridge.  In a November 2025 letter to the Oregon Transportation Commission, Director Kris Strickler stated:

The project team is actively managing risks to on-time and on-budget completion of the project.

Strickler’s letter implies the project could still be on-time and on-budget.  In reality, the project already is way over budget and a year  behind schedule.  The project was scheduled to be completed in 2025 according to ODOT reports 2024; Press reports say ODOT announced it was postponing completion from Fall 2025 to Fall 2026.  The latest ODOT presentation  now says the project may be done in “Winter 2026,” (by which they actually mean the fourth quarter of calendar year 2026, not the first quarter), while the schedule of payments to the project’s construction contractor continues through the first quarter of 2027.

Now ODOT admits the project will take even longer, and the full work, to restore the riverbank under the bridge, will take until 2030.  As we’ve noted at City Observatory, ODOT’s original “cost to complete” estimate for the project was less than $250 million, then doubled to almost $500 million, and the rose further to $622 million and then $750 million, and most recently $815 million, and ODOT has acknowledged it could go higher.  It’s at least a year, and half a billion dollars too late to be talking about delivering this project “on-time and on-budget.”

 

Appendix:  HDR 2018 Cost To Complete Report, Appendix Detail

 

📙 #089 - Pottery Plotter Print Pipeline

Two editions ago I mentioned that a WASP Clay 3d printer/plotter had arrived in the studio. Well…

…let’s just say it’s a lot of fun!

I think it’s also fair to say that if you already write code to create designs for a drawing machine you’d find modifying that code to write-files-for/control-a clay plotter incredibly easy.

I am not about to embark on becoming a potter, I already have enough on my plate without introducing a whole new thing. But having said that, the machine does just live downstairs, and after Kris has finished using it there will be spare clay that has to be used up, and I now have these files laying around.

I did however, create a tool that would let me preview the GCODE to get an idea of what something would look like before I sent it.

The last time I wrote a ray-tracer was back at Uni about 30+ years ago. Coming back to it now, the maths is still pretty much the same. I got it working but I also managed to create something so bad that it actually ran the battery down on the laptop while it was plugged in. Something I didn’t even know was possible.

And then things got weird.


# LINKS


A FAVOUR ABOUT ARCHIVES & DEATH

Meanwhile, I have a favour to ask, two actually, about the same thing.

We - Deep Keep - made a thing called KeepRight (I’ll quickly write why & the background in a moment), it’s about creating a “declaration” about what you’d like to happen to an item, archive, collection after you’re no longer responsible for it (i.e. dead, but not always), and not necessarily your own stuff.

1️⃣ 1️⃣ 1️⃣

So the first favour is about questions.

With a collection/archive of things in mind; physical, digital, mixed, yours, other peoples’, go through the process of creating a declaration for it: https://keepright.info/declaration - we kept it deliberately short to start with, should take like 3mins.

Then let me know (or via the usual channels) what questions we are missing. I’m looking for blind-spots and how it didn’t (or did) work for the things you had in mind.

2️⃣ 2️⃣ 2️⃣

Second favour is for the super technical people, and I’m not totally sure anyone will do this but here we go.

There’s a specification for what the questions are, for how they are asked, and finally for the shape of the saved results - and a bunch of schemas too.

That can all be found here: https://github.com/Deep-Keep-Group/keepright-spec and there’s a more human readable write up all about it here: https://keepright.info/building

If you’re into specs, schemas, systems, extendability, transportability and/or longevity/data retention, or know someone who is can you give me a once over on where I’m being a fucking idiot, or if it all makes sense.

I’ve done the internet, technology, code and development for years, but even backed by all that this is the first spec/schema I’m putting together for the big-wide-world and while I think it makes sense, a second pair of (human) eyes is always good.

💾 💾 💾

The very (very) quick why; we did a whole bunch of stuff with Flickr and archives of people’s photos. We recognised that what we learnt (more on that on the flickr dot org blog; lots of research lots of workshops) extended beyond that, and there were some juicy problems to solve around keeping shit around for a long time (hence setting up Deep Keep).

But it became super obvious that we needed a small layer in front of just “keeping stuff for a long time” - i.e; context, intention, provenance, governance - that sits alongside copyright (or lack of), and can be printed out and stuffed into a folder/shoe box, kept digitally for humans/machines, or both.

For people here that may be; “what do I want to happen to my art/art-collection when I die?

Thank you for doing the above and/or forward this request to someone you think may have opinions!


# EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

I am not a potter, I am a print guy. I love having an A2 printer full of various tones of archival ink and draws of archival paper - almost as much as I love stationery.

I also half own a Riso print studio.

Having a tool that previews GCODE for what a pot may look like, that uses Threejs and webgl gives me access to all the “normals” - which is a shortcut to “how much is this 2d point on the canvas (calculated from a 3d point) pointing towards or away from the light”; i.e. how light or dark is this point.

Which means in addition to the ray traced image, you can get all fancy-pants and throw on a halftone effect…

…which you can separate out into different print channels…

…and then load up into your Riso Studio software to check the colour plates, layout and levels.

Then, you can add the ability to rotate the pot and save out X number of “frames”, to be sent to the Riso printer (and normal printer)…

…but also all the matching SVGs needed for the drawing machine.

So now I’m in the slightly overwhelming position of being able to use a souped up version of my drawing machine code to design pots, vases and perhaps teapots, that can be '“printed/plotted” in clay as an actual real 3d object to be fired and glazed, but also Riso printing, Giclée printed and drawn with whatever pen/pencils/brush etc you want.


# THE END, DOUBTS & SOCIAL PROOF

Spotted this the other day from Applied Craft.

Which looks great, I haven’t used it, and anything that brings down the barrier to entry is good. I can especially get behind the “yeah, this GCODE part is specifically written for me” bit.

It’s also a bit of an odd feeling for me. I’ve spent so long putting off, and then starting to make the Drawing Machine 101 tutorials, that I can feel the relevance of them slipping away as AI develops.

I don’t know how Applied Craft has developed the software, but the UI has the rounded generated with AI look about it, which is fine. And we’re at the point that if someone wants to create a pen plot drawing they don’t need to know how to do that, or even use someone else’s tool or software to do it, they can just ask AI.

Which brings me back to; why the hell am I making videos teaching people how to code things that AI can build for them in minutes?

And I think the answer is two fold.

1. Code as Craft - potters still make pots, people still write letters with fountain pens, typewriters are being meticulous repaired.

2. Social Proof - in the future, when I’m making drawing machine art, and someone inevitably says “that was created with AI” or “that was vibe coded” I’ll have a playlist of 40 or so videos of me hand writing code step by step from start to finish, and YouTube videos that predate AI showing my work, that I can point to.

It’s like keeping public sketchbooks in a way, and I’m glad I did it, and continue to do it.

On that note, the next handcrafted newsletter will be with you on Thursday 25th June, 2026, all typos are mine, and I’ve used ‘-’ instead of ‘—’ all the way through, sorry typographers!

Love you all
Dan
❤️

World Cup Fever in Guadalajara

April 13, 1986
April 27, 2026
: Images of Guadalajara in 1986 (left) and 2026 (right) shows the city expanding westward into an area that had been mostly farmland. Guadalajara Stadium appears as a small circular feature on the left side of the 2026 image.
A pair of Landsat images shows 40 years of westward urban expansion from Guadalajara, Mexico. The Thematic Mapper on Landsat 5 captured the left image in 1986; the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8 captured the right image in 2026.
Images of Guadalajara in 1986 (left) and 2026 (right) shows the city expanding westward into an area that had been mostly farmland. Guadalajara Stadium appears as a small circular feature on the left side of the 2026 image.
A pair of Landsat images shows 40 years of westward urban expansion from Guadalajara, Mexico. The Thematic Mapper on Landsat 5 captured the left image in 1986; the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8 captured the right image in 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
: Images of Guadalajara in 1986 (left) and 2026 (right) shows the city expanding westward into an area that had been mostly farmland. Guadalajara Stadium appears as a small circular feature on the left side of the 2026 image.
A pair of Landsat images shows 40 years of westward urban expansion from Guadalajara, Mexico. The Thematic Mapper on Landsat 5 captured the left image in 1986; the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8 captured the right image in 2026.
Images of Guadalajara in 1986 (left) and 2026 (right) shows the city expanding westward into an area that had been mostly farmland. Guadalajara Stadium appears as a small circular feature on the left side of the 2026 image.
A pair of Landsat images shows 40 years of westward urban expansion from Guadalajara, Mexico. The Thematic Mapper on Landsat 5 captured the left image in 1986; the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8 captured the right image in 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
April 13, 1986
April 27, 2026

April 13, 1986 – April 27, 2026

A pair of Landsat images shows 40 years of westward urban expansion from Guadalajara, Mexico. The TM (Thematic Mapper) on Landsat 5 captured the left image in 1986; the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 captured the right image in 2026.

Guadalajara, Mexico, was quite a different place when it last hosted World Cup games 40 years ago. The city welcomed matches in June 1986 and did so again in 2026, when South Korea faced Czechia at Guadalajara Stadium in the opening round of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

In 1986, Guadalajara Stadium had not yet been built in Zapopan, the fast-growing municipality just northwest of Guadalajara. Many of that year’s World Cup matches were held instead at Jalisco Stadium in northeastern Guadalajara. It was in that stadium that France defeated Brazil in a penalty shootout in the 1986 quarterfinals, in what is widely regarded as one of the most memorable World Cup games of all time.

As seen in the Landsat images above, the land where Guadalajara Stadium (also called Estadio Akron) now sits was farmland in 1986. The new stadium, built in 2010 to host Mexico’s Club Deportivo Guadalajara, or Chivas, lies near the Sierra la Primavera volcanic complex, a rugged landscape full of lava flows, volcanic domes, steam vents, and hot springs. The architects who designed the stadium took inspiration from the nearby volcanic terrain, creating a structure that rises from a grassy earthen berm meant to resemble the flanks of a volcano, topped with a white roof reminiscent of a volcanic cloud.   

About 95,000 years ago, the volcanic system underneath Sierra la Primavera produced a massive eruption that caused a caldera 11 kilometers (7 miles) in diameter to slump downward. Water filled the depression for tens of thousands of years, but tectonic uplift and the accumulation of sediment eventually led to the demise of the lake. Erosion wore away the softer surrounding rock over time, leaving harder, erosion-resistant volcanic rocks within the circular feature that now stand high above the surrounding terrain.

Starting about 60,000 years ago, several lava domes erupted along the southern edge of the caldera. The youngest of them, Cerro del Colli, formed about 30,000 years ago, leaving the dome-shaped feature just south of the stadium and contributing to a broader landscape dotted with other volcanic domes and cinder cones.

Today, much of the original caldera has been preserved as a forested area known as La Primavera Biosphere Reserve, even as development has partially encircled it during the past 40 years. The population of the Guadalajara metro area has grown from about 2.7 million in 1986 to more than 5.5 million now, with particularly rapid growth in Zapopan, a burgeoning tech hub sometimes billed as “Mexico’s Silicon Valley.” A prominent development visible in Landsat images is Guadalajara Technology Park, one of several new industrial parks in Zapopan. New greenhouses have also come to the area en masse, including south of the reserve, where they are mostly used to grow fruits and vegetables.

World Cup fever runs particularly high in Guadalajara, which is hosting World Cup matches for the third time. During Brazil’s legendary title run in 1970, when Pelé led the team, Jalisco Stadium was the venue for Brazil’s first-round, quarterfinal, and semifinal matches. To commemorate him, the city in May 2026 erected a 9.5-meter (31-foot) bronze statue of the iconic football (soccer) player.

Even the animals at Guadalajara Zoo are taking part in the festivities, with elephants, gorillas, giraffes, capybaras, pumas, and macaws “predicting” match winners by choosing between food, shirts, boxes, soccer balls, and other items. A puma named Muluk predicted South Korea would beat Czechia by sniffing and moving a ball, one newspaper reported.

Guadalajara will host four first-round matches: South Korea vs. Czechia on June 12, Mexico vs. South Korea on June 18, Colombia vs. Democratic Republic of the Congo on June 23, and Uruguay vs. Spain on June 26.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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Special update: Rising odds of a strong-to-historic El Niño event in 2026, with growing likelihood of significant regional-to-global scale impacts

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SpaceX launches Starlink mission from Cape Canaveral as stock trades on the Nasdaq for first time

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on June 12, 2026, on the Starlink 10-54 mission. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

Update June 12, 9:53 a.m. EDT (1353 UTC): SpaceX confirmed satellite deployment.

SpaceX marked its historic launch on the stock market Friday morning with a Falcon 9 rocket launch from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

This was the 650th flight of SpaceX’s workhorse launcher to date and the 68th Falcon 9 launch so far in 2026. SpaceX flew the Starlink 10-54 mission, which sent 29 Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites into low Earth orbit.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on June 12, 2026. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 happened at 8:37 a.m. EDT (1237 UTC), less than an hour before the trading day starts on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The rocket flew on a north-easterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

“Today we make history again. We have a history of making history,” said SpaceX Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell ahead of ringing the opening bell in New York. “We did open this morning in a rather exciting way. We launched a Falcon 9 and Starlink satellites to orbit. So what company would do such a thing on the day they open in the public market? SpaceX would.”

The 45th Weather Squadron forecast an 80 percent chance for favorable liftoff at the opening of the window, which drops slightly down to 70 percent as the window progresses. Meteorologists are watching for interference from cumulus clouds.

SpaceX flew the Starlink 10-54 mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1080. This was its 27th mission to date, including two crewed flights to the International Space Station for Axiom Space, two cargo missions to the ISS, and the European Space Agency’s Euclid observatory.

A little more than eight minutes after liftoff, B1080 landed on the drone ship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas’, off the coast of South Carolina. This was the 155th landing on this vessel and the 623rd booster landing to date for SpaceX.

This was also the 55th dedicated launch of Starlink satellites so far this year and the 56th overall mission featuring the spacecraft. SpaceX has more than 10,500 Starlink satellites in orbit.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on June 12, 2026. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Going public

The Starlink 10-54 mission marked a turning point for SpaceX as it became a publicly traded company more than 24 years after its founding in March 2002. It’s valuation is $1.77 trillion.

SpaceX announced on Thursday that it would be selling 555.6 million shares of its Class A common stock at $135 each, raising $75 billion for the company.

The Starlink portion of SpaceX is a key driver of its business. In its financial disclosures to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), SpaceX said its income from its connectivity business was about $2 billion in 2024 and $4.4 billion in 2025.

SpaceX’s first Starship Version 3 rocket takes off from Pad 2 at Starbase during the Flight 12 mission on May 22, 2026. Image: SpaceX

SpaceX is betting on its Starship-Super Heavy rocket to launch not only its Starship V3 satellites, but also orbiting data centers to help power the company’s artificial intelligence division, xAI.

SpaceX also hopes Starship can help unlock currently non-existent markets, like point-to-point rocket travel on Earth, asteroid mining, and large-scale infrastructure on Mars.

The company completed its 12th Starship test flight in May and is working towards a 13th flight on a yet to be disclosed date. It’s unclear exactly when the first orbital launch attempt of Starship will take place, but SpaceX has stated its intention to begin deploying Starlink V3 satellites in the back half of 2026.

“Starship is designed to enable a step-function change in our launch capability across reusability, payload capacity, and launch cadence, and is the key enabler of our long-term growth strategy by unlocking entirely new categories of missions,” SpaceX wrote in its prospectus document.

SpaceX said it spent about $3 billion in research and development on Starship in 2025 and $930 million in the first three months of 2026.

Are you finally ready to admit it's the phones?

“No. I am Hugh.” — Hugh

I remember the first time I heard about the invention of the iPhone, back in 2007. My friend, who followed Apple products with an almost religious zeal — there were many such people in those days — entered the room and announced “This is the convergence!” We spent the next few minutes gaping in awe at the idea that every single piece of portable consumer electronics was about to be combined into a single device.

For many, it felt like a messianic moment. The iPhone was probably the last big innovation that we Americans embraced as a whole society. Everybody had an iPhone, or wanted one. Engineers loved how the thing was engineered. Humanities PhD students showed off the latest model at parties and admired the sleek design.1 Kids in working class neighborhoods were glued to their iPhones in math class. It was a supercomputer in your pocket, a voice for the voiceless, the tricorder and the communicator from Star Trek, all that and more.

It was also big money. Years before Benedict Evans wrote “The smartphone is the new sun”, every ambitious tech entrepreneur and content creator in America was in on the game. Social media — that infinitely scrolling vertical feed — was the killer app of the smartphone, what the spreadsheet had been for the PC or e-commerce had been for the internet. In 2012, Facebook’s monster IPO kicked off a gold rush, and everyone moved to San Francisco to strike it rich.

But you didn’t need to be a tech entrepreneur in order to get in on the action. The smartphone meant far more eyeballs glued to far more screens for far more minutes of the day, and that meant dollar signs for content creators. YouTubers, Instagram fashion influencers, and Twitter activists became whole new economic classes. Old-style content businesses like newspapers and TV networks saw their doom, but also a potential lifeline. (Eventually even econ bloggers got our piece of the pie; plenty of you signed up for this blog through a scrollable app.)

Beautiful design coupled with brilliant engineering. Technology anyone could use. Economic opportunity for the masses and for the elite. A way to have your ideas and opinions heard by millions of people thousands of miles away, at any hour of any day. No wonder Steve Jobs was the last technologist that everyone agreed was an American hero.

But when I recall that fateful day in 2007, I remember not joy, but a sudden surge of foreboding. That was strange, and out of character for me. I’ve always been a technophile at heart — I grew up as a hardcore Star Trek fan, and until that moment in 2007, each new marvel — broadband, the internet, the laptop computer, etc. — had felt like it was moving us toward that bold utopian future. The iPhone felt different. Some small voice in the back of my head told me: “This is a mistake.” And though I tried to ignore that voice for many years, it remained.

What was I worried about? I think some part of me knew that someday, I would end up saying something like this:

The internet was wonderful because it was a place you could go — a complement to real life, not a substitute. The iPhone promised to put that fantasy universe in our pockets 24/7, and we would never escape. It would be physically possible to turn off our phones, of course, but it wouldn’t be socially possible — you could always touch grass, but after everyone had an iPhone, that would be the only conduit through which you could touch another human mind.

The idea of perpetually tying every human into a global hive mind tripped alarm bells. It reminded me too much of the hive minds I had seen depicted in science fiction nightmares — the Borg from Star Trek, the Blight from A Fire Upon the Deep, the Human Instrumentality Project from Neon Genesis Evangelion. Humans were meant to be individuals — unique, independent incubators of ideas and desires, not terminals or the fingers of a world-mind.

We had spent centuries trying to escape the small, localized versions of the hive mind. The printing press, the car and the telephone had offered freedom from the crushing conformity of small-town life. When broadcast television threatened to smother us with a centrally dictated monoculture, it sparked a decades-long resistance. When the internet arrived, we spent two decades using it to revel in our individuality — we made our personal websites, started blogs, joined small online communities centered around our interests.

Sometime around 2014 or 2015 we woke up to the fact that the world of the Old Internet no longer existed. “The internet” no longer meant the Web — it meant a tiny handful of big platforms. Twitter and Reddit for screaming about politics, Facebook and Instagram for being jealous of your friends’ vacation pics. Gone were the days of painting our individuality on the canvas of the Web. The platforms were the hive minds, we were the neurons, and the smartphone was the axon that kept each of us wired tight into the collective.

“‘Social media is bad,’ he typed on social media!!” This is the perpetual and instantaneous response of many of the neurons…er, people…in my timeline. Indeed, if social media is so bad, why don’t you just put down the phone? But this idea displays a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of network effects. Suppose I decide to get off Instagram and go play pickup basketball instead. If everyone else is on Instagram instead of playing pickup basketball, who am I going to play with?

This is an extreme and simplified example, obviously, but the intuition here comes from real research. Bursztyn et al. (2024) have a paper called “When Product Markets Become Collective Traps: The Case of Social Media”. Here’s a quick summary:

While one would typically assume that a popular product benefits its users…Bursztyn et al. find evidence of a “product market trap:” At least among the college students in this experiment, large numbers of people are choosing to use social media platforms they also wish didn’t exist at all…[T]he authors found that [subjects] would…be willing to pay an average of $24 to deactivate the platform on their campus for four weeks. This amount rose to $43 when they also included the minority of students who weren’t TikTok users. (Results for Instagram were similar and are included in the full policy brief.) [emphasis mine]

The students said that they only stayed on TikTok because other people were on it too, and they were afraid of missing out. FOMO is not utility; it’s a bad equilibrium.

There’s also an impulse to do a sort of “Good Tsar, bad boyars” maneuver, where people say “it’s not the phones, it’s social media”. But this is an argument over whether guns kill people or bullets kill people. Yes, we could access social media from laptops or other stationary devices, but we could only do so for part of the day; that would force us to develop offline interactions and relationships during the other hours, like we did back in 2007. It’s the ever-present umbilical that enables — and perhaps even mandates — the replacement of in-person interaction with an online hive mind.2

In 2007 I suppressed my deep-seated doubts about smartphone technology. I am a techno-optimist, and this was just another miraculous new tool for human empowerment. And yet the two decades since 2007 seem to have only validated my misgivings, across a number of dimensions.

Plenty of evidence has linked smartphones — and the social media apps that take up the single biggest chunk of the time we spend on those phones — to rising unhappiness among the world’s young people:

Since I wrote about this in 2023, the evidence has only grown stronger. Here’s an experiment by Castelo et al. (2025):

We used a mobile phone application to block all mobile internet access from participants' smartphones for 2 weeks and objectively track compliance. This intervention specifically targeted the feature that makes smartphones "smart" (mobile internet) while allowing participants to maintain mobile connection (through texts and calls) and nonmobile access to the internet (e.g. through desktop computers). The intervention improved mental health, subjective well-being, and objectively measured ability to sustain attention; 91% of participants improved on at least one of these outcomes. Mediation analyses suggest that these improvements can be partially explained by the intervention's impact on how people spent their time; when people did not have access to mobile internet, they spent more time socializing in person, exercising, and being in nature. [emphasis mine]

Other recent experiments have yielded similar results.

The likeliest explanation is that there is simply something thin and insufficient about online interaction. It’s lacking in some essential emotional nutrient that human beings evolved to harvest from the physical proximity of other human beings. Perhaps it’s something cognitive — the richness of context that tells you that no, your friend’s life isn’t perfect just because they posted a cool video of their trip to Europe, and thus you don’t need to feel constantly envious and inadequate and left-out. Or perhaps it’s something physical — the tiny touch of a high-five or a hug, the simple feeling of the proximity of other human bodies.

Whatever this emotional nutrient is, our young people are starving for it, while they binge on the cheap sugar-alcohol of emoji reactions and story views. In other parts of the world, young people are just starting to break free of this collective trap, but not yet in the United States.

But making teenagers sad is one thing; putting an end to the Human Age on planet Earth is quite another.

The global fertility decline is a long-standing trend. Every country that escapes poverty, urbanizes, and teaches its people to read is going to transition from a high fertility rate (5-7 children per woman) to a much lower rate. Long before the smartphone burst on the scene, most of Europe and the richer parts of East Asia had fallen below replacement-level fertility. Everyone would crack jokes about Japan not having enough kids.

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Thursday 11 June 1663

Up and spent most of the morning upon my measuring Ruler and with great pleasure I have found out some things myself of great dispatch, more than my book teaches me, which pleases me mightily. Sent my wife’s things and the wine to-day by the carrier to my father’s, but staid my boy from a letter of my father’s, wherein he desires that he may not come to trouble his family as he did the last year.

Dined at home and then to the office, where we sat all the afternoon, and at night home and spent the evening with my wife, and she and I did jangle mightily about her cushions that she wrought with worsteds the last year, which are too little for any use, but were good friends by and by again. But one thing I must confess I do observe, which I did not before, which is, that I cannot blame my wife to be now in a worse humour than she used to be, for I am taken up in my talk with Ashwell, who is a very witty girl, that I am not so fond of her as I used and ought to be, which now I do perceive I will remedy, but I would to the Lord I had never taken any, though I cannot have a better than her. To supper and to bed. The consideration that this is the longest day in the year is very unpleasant to me. —[It is necessary to note that this was according to the old style.]— This afternoon my wife had a visit from my Lady Jeminah and Mr. Ferrers.

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Trying to Rewrite the Story

June 10, 2026

Today a report from the Department of Labor showed that inflation in May hit its highest level since early 2023, reaching an annual rate of 4.2%, up from 3.8% in April. The Federal Reserve likes to keep inflation at 2%. Energy costs are the biggest driver of that inflation, with fuel oil up 59% and gasoline up 41% over their costs last year. Airline fares have risen 27%. Fruits and vegetables are up 6% over their cost a year ago.

At a signing event for the budget reconciliation measure Republicans passed to add an additional $70 billion in funding for Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protect (CBP), the parent agency for Border Patrol, a reporter in the Oval Office asked President Donald J. Trump if he was concerned about the inflation number. Trump answered:

“No, I love it. The numbers were great. You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why?”

And then his speech slid into a fantasy rewriting of the history of his war on Iran and his decision to launch it.

Trump claimed that he was telling reporters—and Iran—for the first time that the U.S. was secretly taking oil from Iran. “Do you know we’ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil?” he asked. “Nobody knows it. You know who doesn’t know about it? Iran, until right now. We took out the other night 22 ships, late at night, with no lights, ’cause they don’t have any radar, ’cause we blasted the crap out of it. We took out, that why oil’s $85 a barrel.”

As Eric Schmitt and Jonathan Swan of the New York Times report, Trump appeared to be referring to the well-known U.S. operation to help dozens of commercial vessels traverse the Strait of Hormuz. So far, the journalists report, the U.S has guided more than 200 ships through in a little more than a month. Before the war, about 3,000 ships a month traveled through the strait. The reporters say they could not confirm Trump’s claim that the effort had enabled more than 100 million barrels of oil to reach the market.

Then Trump segued into a rewriting of why he started the strikes in the first place in order to suggest the dramatic hit the economy has taken from the war was part of his plan all along. He claimed he had deliberately made the choice to hurt the economy to stop Iran from producing a nuclear weapon, which he claimed—contrary to his own intelligence officers’ assessments—it was going to have “very soon.”

“I said, look, the one bad thing will be, we hit the best economy we’ve ever hit,” Trump claimed. “And I said to my people, I had [Treasury Secetary] Scott [Bessent], I had [Commerce Secretary] Howard [Lutnick], I had [Defense Secretary] Pete [Hegseth], I had all—I had [then–deputy attorney general] Todd [Blanche] in the room. I said, The one thing we have to do now, we had just hit the highest stock market in history. Highest 401Ks in history. Everything was going well, and I said, I hate to do this to you guys, but Iran’s gonna have a nuclear weapon very soon. We have to go and attack.”

In fact, in his video announcing the strikes and in comments in the early days of the war, Trump emphasized that the U.S. intended to end the Iranian regime, which he claimed had been at war with the U.S. for 47 years, and he urged Iranians to rise up against it. Ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions would come from the regime change he advocated.

In any case, he said today, oil was not nearly as expensive as the $250 a barrel people had said it could reach, so its current level is “pretty amazing.” And the stock market, he said, remains high. He went on to say that his strikes on Venezuela were “a great success” and that Venezuela has “become a happy country,” and that “we went to Iran and essentially we’ve done the same thing.” He claimed Iran’s military has been destroyed and all the Iranian leadership is gone.

When a reporter finally brought him back to the question about inflation coming down, he said that when the war is over, “it’s gonna come down like a rock.”

Meanwhile, John Knefel of Media Matters noted yesterday that Fox News hosts, many of whom supported the initial strikes on Iran, are now arguing that Trump should start bombing again. Their mantra is that it will take only two weeks to win a decisive military victory.

Trump’s relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein is back in the news as New York Times White House reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, who have a book on the Trump presidency coming out, detailed how desperately worried the White House was last summer over the Epstein files. They searched desperately for a way to look as if they were being transparent to appease the MAGA base, while also making sure the files stayed hidden.

The write-up of the story distances Vice President J.D. Vance from the files, suggesting he was “panicked” by them and wanted them released. This position, attributed to him by White House officials, is good for him politically, as he will want to pick up MAGA voters unhappy about the Epstein cover up by 2028, at least—or before, should he need to take the mantle of the presidency from Trump, who will turn 80 on Sunday.

Vance is in the news this week as he seems to court MAGA in other ways, as well. On Monday he announced he would refer Minnesota governor Tim Walz and Minnesota attorney general Keith Ellison to the Department of Justice for an investigation of criminal fraud. The claim that Somalis in Minnesota are engaging in social services fraud while Democrats look the other way is a driving factor behind MAGA politics.

Raquel Coronell Uribe and Tara Prindiville of NBC News report that Walz has called Vance’s attacks on him a “campaign of retribution” meant “to punish blue states like Minnesota.” Ellison told the reporters the allegations were “unfounded” and a “political stunt.” “It is deeply troubling to see official powers and public resources diverted away from serving the people and instead aimed at pursuing political adversaries,” he said. “That is not what government is for, and it diminishes public trust in our institutions.”

Vance has also jumped aboard the unfounded accusation of Trump and his loyalists that the slow counting of ballots in California suggests the election is insecure and the Republican candidate is being cheated. Election denialism is increasingly a hallmark of the MAGA Republicans as they argue any election they lose is fraudulent.

During the 2024 presidential campaign, when caught lying about Haitian immigrants eating pets, Vance admitted he felt it necessary “to create stories so that the…media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people.”

Yesterday, an Iranian drone downed a U.S. helicopter, although a U.S. official told CBS News it was not clear that the strike was intentional. This evening, Trump launched new airstrikes against Iran, saying they were “self-defense strikes” “in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression,” after the slow progress of negotiations for an agreement to end the war.

U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces “launched strikes on Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites across Iran. U.S. Marine Corps, Air Force, and Navy assets fired precision munitions on Iranian targets that posed a threat to U.S. forces and international commercial ships transiting regional waters.”

Christoph Koettl and Christiaan Triebert of the New York Times confirmed reports from Iran that U.S. strikes destroyed what appears to have been a drinking water facility. They note that targeting civilian infrastructure can be a war crime under international law.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded to the U.S. strikes with their own strikes against U.S. targets in the region and announced it was closing the Strait of Hormuz completely and would attack any vessels trying to cross it.

With the renewed strikes, the price of oil jumped more than $1 a barrel.

Tonight, Trump posted on social media a demand that Republicans in Congress give the U.S. military an additional $350 billion and pass the SAVE America bill that would suppress voting. “No games, no delays, and no weak compromises! Do this ASAP,” he wrote.

“This is a GENERATIONAL Investment in our Military, even bigger than President Reagan’s,” he wrote. The “$350 Billion Reconciliation Bill,” which could pass without any Democratic votes, “is the ONLY path to the full $1.5 TRILLION DOLLAR Military Budget our Warriors need in order to build THE ARSENAL OF FREEDOM.”

He also demanded Republicans pass “THE SAVE AMERICA ACT” requiring proof of citizenship to vote and an end to mail-in ballots “EXCEPT FOR ILLNESS, DISABILITY, MILITARY, OR TRAVEL!” in order to “protect our Elections for Generations to come” and “to secure the NATION for our children and grandchildren.”

Then he added “NO MEN IN WOMEN’S SPORTS” and “NO TRANSGENDER MUTILIZATION SURGERY FOR OUR CHILDREN,” then concluded: “Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Notes:

https://thehill.com/business/economy/5918372-inflation-in-may-was-bad-these-7-things-got-way-more-expensive/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/world/middleeast/trump-oil-iran-strait-hormuz.html

https://www.mediamatters.org/us-iran-relations/fox-news-selling-trump-fantasy-he-could-defeat-iran-two-weeks

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/magazine/trump-epstein-files-white-house-vance-doj.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/vance-refers-gov-tim-walz-minnesota-attorney-general-doj-fraud-investi-rcna349125

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/trump-ice-70-billion-immigration-funding.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/trump-announces-beginning-of-major-combat-operations-in-iran-258478149669

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-apache-helicopter-crash-strait-of-hormuz-first-sea-drone-rescue/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze9359gglyo

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel?post-id=cmq8r7okq00003b6s7qrc44qh

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/15/jd-vance-lies-haitian-immigrants

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-2-iran-announces-closure-strait-hormuz-following-us-strikes-2026-06-11/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/world/middleeast/precision-strike-iran-water.html

YouTube:

watch?v=SUJfwcXC4sQ

Trumpstruth.org:

statuses/39211

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CENTCOM/status/2064876360259043642?s=20

Bluesky:

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atrupar.com/post/3mnsxh57e2w2z

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A Very Big Deal Indeed

AI wants to fu*k college students

By Liv Martin

Guest contributor to the Truth OC

•••

AI wants to fuck college students.

But not the way you think …

While everyone panics about AI messing with the job market, the job market will not be the primary way AI fucks with college students. I know, I know … but worse things are actually coming for us.

As a college student currently in the thick of finals, I see AI harming my fellow college students in several ways that will harm their career prospects outside of an AI agent taking all the jobs. Aside from environmental destruction, unlawful surveillance, and outright theft from artists and writers. As a side note, let it be known, readers, I have never used any of the free LLMs (Large Language Models) apart from Google Search trying to foist it on me without my consent. And yes, people ask “don’t you want to keep up with the times? This is the future.”

BUT!

The main issue facing college students is that AI is making them stupid. I’m not joking, the cognitive atrophy is real. Also, AI is harming the education system itself and eroding trust and connection between professors and students.

Literacy is more than just being able to understand words—it’s the ability to understand nuance, irony, satire, entendre, and even reading a room. When AI summarizes, whether for a research article or a novel, it takes over the student’s thinking for them and degrades their literacy skills.

This is scary because half of college learning is reading articles and writing papers to show your understanding of course materials and original thinking. Group projects are even more tortuous when you have to read literally thoughtless writing from a teammate because they used AI to read the book for them and write their part of the paper.

Some of these students may actually finish college knowing less than when they were admitted because their brains are leaking out their ears with every LLM summary or hallucinated analysis and un-researched paper reference.

They’re even using AI to write and respond to posts in online class discussions. Thanks for the feedback, Chad, but I don’t really care what Grok thinks about the child development class readings.

Truthfully, I find it terrifying.

Then there’s the fracturing of trust between students and teachers. We now have lockdown browser tests with webcams, long “check-in” assignments to ensure students are following along, and essay authorship scans (ironically AI powered and producing so many false accusations). Teachers constantly doubting and searching for the slightest hint of AI, and the students who actually do the work trying to desperately prove their innocence.

It’s a weird combination of 1984’s Big Brother and The Giver’s creepy banality that’s positioning professors who are supposed to guide us as our keepers and adversaries.

AI is creating a future where some college graduates will enter the workforce truly unprepared and, despite the predictions that only those who know how to use AI will have the advantage, will be utterly unable to actually do the work.

Despite the hype, the future will belong to those who can function without AI and still be able to think for themselves, read, learn, and understand complexity. But the rich guys selling AI, and the CEOs gleefully planning to replace workers with bots, really just want us college students to be fucked.

Liv Martin mostly studies psychology at a local university. On occasion, she indulges her passion for writing with short stories, articles and lively online debates. You can follow her on Instagram here.

How to Keep Living the Life You Love at Home as You Age

There’s something really special about the place we call home. It’s the place we probably grew up in. It’s filled with decades of memories. We love the familiar neighborhoods. It’s comfortable. So wanting to stay right where you are as you get older is a natural choice that most of us eventually gravitate towards.

And the good news is that with a handful of practical changes, you can ensure that your living space will forever be the perfect backdrop for your favorite daily routines.

Staying put comfortably is all about looking ahead and setting yourself up for success. By focusing on your everyday environment and daily habits, you can make sure your home stays safe. Functional. Deeply welcoming. Just like how you’ve always seen it.

Simple improvements for everyday comfort

Our homes often need to evolve right along with us. A great place to start is by looking at how you move through your rooms each day. Making minor adjustments can remove daily frustrations and prevent unnecessary strain. You might consider switching out traditional door knobs for easy-to-use lever handles, or upgrading the lighting in dark stairwells and closets so everything is clearly visible.

For larger changes, focusing on the bathroom and kitchen usually offers the biggest benefits. Things like installing a walk-in shower or placing frequently used dishes on lower shelves. These sound like small changes, but they’re really just ways to make daily life more comfortable since you use less energy. Investing in these thoughtful home adaptations  means you can move around the home with absolute ease and confidence.

Embracing smart technology for peace of mind

Technology has come a long way, and it’s now easier than ever to use it to your advantage. Modern gadgets can take a lot of the guesswork out of staying safe while you live on your own. Smart home devices, like voice-activated speakers to turn on lights or video doorbells that let you see who is at the front door from your favorite chair, add a wonderful layer of convenience.

Another brilliant tool to consider is a dedicated safety device. Wearing a personal medical alarm for older adults  means that support is always within reach if you ever need it. Having that instant connection to assistance gives reassurance to both you and your family. It helps everyone breathe a little easier. It gives them peace of mind. And that’s well worth a tiny bit of inconvenience.

Nurturing your health and social connections

Taking care of your physical well-being is another really important part of staying right where you want to be. Gentle movement, like regular walks or light stretching, helps keep your muscles strong and your balance steady. Eating nutritious meals and staying hydrated also keeps your energy levels up so you can enjoy your hobbies and stay active.

Beyond physical health, keeping up with your social life is just as vital for a happy life at home. Inviting neighbors over for tea, chatting with family on video calls, or participating in local clubs keeps you connected to your community. Taking these proactive steps helps you stay independent for longer  and ensures your golden years are filled with joy.

Photo: CDC via Unsplash


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Ways Small Business Owners Can Protect Themselves

Running a small business in the United States brings opportunities as well as risks. Whether you operate a local service company, an online store, or a growing professional practice, unexpected problems can affect your finances, reputation, and daily operations. Economic uncertainty, cyber threats , regulatory requirements, and fraudulent activity all create challenges that business owners must manage carefully. Many risks become more expensive when business owners address them only after a problem appears. A practical approach focuses on prevention. When you build strong systems, maintain accurate records, and understand your legal responsibilities, you place your business in a stronger position to handle setbacks.

Choose the Right Business Structure and Stay Compliant

The structure you choose affects your personal liability, taxes, and administrative responsibilities. Many entrepreneurs select an LLC because it can separate personal assets from business liabilities while offering flexibility  in how the business operates. If a customer files a lawsuit against the business, that separation may help protect your personal savings, home, or other assets, depending on the circumstances and applicable laws. Review your state requirements regularly and keep business registrations, licenses, and annual filings up to date. Set calendar reminders for filing deadlines and maintain a secure digital folder for important legal documents. This process reduces the chance of missing critical compliance obligations that could create unnecessary costs.

Protect Business Finances with Strong Recordkeeping

Accurate records help you understand cash flow, prepare tax returns, and respond to questions from lenders or government agencies. When you maintain organized financial information, you can identify unusual expenses quickly and make better decisions about hiring, purchasing equipment, or expanding operations. Keep business and personal finances separate through dedicated bank accounts and credit cards. Use accounting software consistently and reconcile accounts each month. This routine helps you catch errors early rather than spending days correcting problems at tax time.

Strengthen Cybersecurity Before Problems Occur

Cybercriminals often target small businesses because they may have fewer security controls than larger organizations. A single ransomware attack or compromised email account can interrupt operations and create significant recovery costs. Use strong passwords, multifactor authentication , and regular software updates across all devices. For example, a small accounting firm that enables multifactor authentication can reduce the likelihood that criminals gain access through a stolen password alone. Train employees to recognize suspicious emails and establish clear procedures for handling sensitive customer information. These precautions can help prevent disruptions that affect both revenue and client trust.

Guard Against Fraud, Scams, and Identity Theft

Fraud schemes continue to evolve, and small businesses frequently receive fake invoices, phishing emails, and payment requests that appear legitimate. Without verification procedures, employees may unknowingly send money or disclose sensitive information to criminals. Create a process that requires independent verification before approving unusual payments or changing vendor banking details. If an employee receives an email requesting an urgent wire transfer, a quick phone call to a known contact can prevent a costly mistake. Early detection often limits financial damage and gives you more options to resolve issues before they escalate.

Photo: RDNE Stock project via Pexels


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What Drivers Need to Know About Automated Traffic Enforcement Along Georgia Roadways

Traffic and red light cameras in Macon, GA have become a common part of the local transportation landscape. Municipalities increasingly rely on automated enforcement systems to monitor certain intersections and roadways, helping to identify violations and promote safer driving behavior without requiring an officer to be present at every location.

Many drivers are unsure how these systems operate or how citations are issued. It can be surprising to receive a notice in the mail weeks after passing through an intersection, especially if there was no direct interaction with law enforcement at the time of the alleged violation.

Understanding how automated traffic enforcement works  can help motorists make informed decisions behind the wheel and avoid unnecessary penalties. Knowing where these systems are used, how violations are documented, and what rights drivers have can make navigating Macon’s roadways much less confusing.

Keeping an Eye on the Intersection

The mechanics behind automated enforcement systems rely on a highly coordinated network of sensors and cameras. Electromagnetic loops buried deep within the asphalt pavement actively detect the exact physical presence of a motor vehicle as it approaches the thick white stop bar line.

These sensors sync directly with the overhead traffic signals to track light changes with microsecond precision. If a car crosses the marked boundary line after the light turns red, the automated system triggers a sequence of high speed electronic digital cameras instantly.

The flash illuminates the rear of the vehicle to capture clear photographs of the license plate. Technicians review this digital evidence later to verify the vehicle details before mailing out a notice, ensuring the system only targets drivers who clearly violated the traffic law.

Clarifying the Penalty Structure

Receiving an automated citation in the mail can be stressful, but the legal classification of these tickets brings some relief. Because a camera cannot verify who was driving, Georgia law treats these automated system violations strictly as civil offenses rather than standard criminal.

This distinction means the state cannot assess penalty points against your personal state driver’s license for a camera infraction. Unlike a ticket written directly by an active patrol officer, these digital warnings won’t impact your auto insurance premium rates or personal driving history.

The fine associated with these automated electronic violations is capped by state law to prevent unfair financial exploitation. It acts more like a parking ticket than a moving violation, meaning you simply owe the designated city administrative fee without ever facing long courtroom trials.

The Cost of Ignoring Electronic Notices

While camera tickets don’t damage your driving record, ignoring these official notifications can lead to serious administrative trouble. The state of Georgia takes unpaid civil penalties very seriously and has established clear enforcement tools to compel motorists to pay all their outstanding fines.

If you throw a ticket in the trash, the local municipal court will send additional warnings and apply late fees to your account. Eventually, the unresolved matter gets reported directly to the state department of revenue, which handles all active vehicle registration.

The state can suspend your personal license plate privileges, making it illegal to drive your car until the fine is fully settled. This roadblock quickly turns a small, ignored electronic warning into a massive, highly frustrating legal headache during a future routine traffic stop.

Unexpected Consequences at the Stop Line

While city planners implement camera systems to improve public safety, these electronic monitors can sometimes trigger unintended safety hazards. Many safety experts and local drivers argue that automated enforcement changes driver behavior in ways that actually increase the overall immediate local roadway dangers.

When motorists spot a camera box, they often slam on their brakes suddenly out of fear. This nervous, defensive reaction frequently catches trailing vehicles off guard, transforming a simple yellow light sequence into an incredibly dangerous and sudden local highway stopping scenario.

Studies show that while red light cameras reduce severe side impact collisions, they often trigger a corresponding spike in rear end crashes. Drivers must maintain safe following distances near monitored intersections to avoid colliding with motorists who brake unexpectedly to escape these expensive fines.

Conclusion

Navigating automated local traffic enforcement across Georgia requires constant driver vigilance and clear spatial awareness. Knowing where these electronic monitoring devices operate allows you to drive with confidence, ensuring you avoid unnecessary stress and prevent sudden civil citation fines on your own commute.

Staying fully informed about modern enforcement trends ensures you protect your valuable financial assets. By carefully monitoring local roadway rules, you protect your household budget from unexpected and costly surprises that can easily result from ignoring these minor civil penalty ticket notices.

Ultimately, practicing safe driving habits remains your best defense against both electronic citations and real physical road hazards. Keeping a safe travel speed and paying extremely close attention at intersections ensures you arrive home safely without facing any unwanted mechanical or legal road interruptions.

Photo: Ivett M via Pexels


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Boost Your Law Firm Through Local SEO

Washington D.C. law firms face stiff competition both online and off. Clients search for answers before they ever pick up the phone. If you’re not visible locally, someone else is.

“You cannot rely on referrals alone. Local search drives walk-ins, calls, and qualified leads. When your firm ranks higher, your reputation follows,”  says Bill Fukui from MedShark Digital .

If you wish to expand your caseload and create your online presence, this is how local SEO can be the difference for your law firm in Washington, D.C.

Understanding the Basics of Local SEO for Lawyers

Local SEO is all about having your law firm show up when potential clients look for legal services in a geographic area. Search engines employ geographic signals to figure out which law firms should be noticed.

Washington, D.C., law firms benefit in this way since customers typically seek location-based terms like “family lawyer near me” or “D.C. personal injury lawyer.” Search engines use these signals to connect the search term with businesses that match the location.

Local SEO differs from overall SEO in that it causes visibility in a neighborhood or city. The process causes your business to show up in map listings, local directories, and organic search for your area.

Why Local Search Matters for Lawyers

Washington, D.C., clients expect answers from reliable lawyers close to their area. Search engines can identify intent and direct those in need to highly relevant local law firms.

Closeness is more critical than ever since legal cases do not leave anyone enough time to conduct research. Google, Bing, and Apple Maps prefer businesses with strong local signals, such as an address, reviews, and recent additions, over businesses that are miles apart.

Law firms with strong local search visibility get more walk-ins and incoming calls. Reputation also builds quickly since clients have access to authentic information about your listings.

Top Local SEO Ranking Factors for Lawyers

Search engines prefer relevance, proximity, and authority when it comes to law firms’ local rankings. Proper and consistent details such as your firm’s name, address, and phone number (NAP) convey credibility to search algorithms.

High star ratings and reviews create trust with clients and search engines. Review quantity, quality, and freshness to determine your ranking on local search results. Review replies build your reputation.

Local citations, backlinks from local sites, and activity on platforms like Google Business Profile (GBP) play essential parts as well. Businesses that maintain complete profiles, up-to-date services, and robust local relationships stand out in ultra-competitive markets.

Top Tools to Increase Local Visibility

Google Business Profile is at the center of your local visibility, powering Maps and the local pack. Apple Business Connect and Bing Places extend reach to iOS and Microsoft ecosystems.

Directory programs like Moz Local, Yext, and BrightLocal help sync your law firm’s listings across dozens of sites. Accurate citations clear up confusion for both clients and search engines. Law directories like Avvo and Justia add extra relevance.

Review sites also serve as discovery engines. Programs like GatherUp or Podium ease how your firm asks for and manages reviews. Actively managing your reputation strengthens local rankings.

The Role of Social Media Interaction in Rankings Improvement

Active social media accounts send indirect signals that influence search visibility. While likes and shares are not ranking modifiers, engagement sends online actions that support authority.

Locally relevant posts, i.e., posts on community events or legal updates related to D.C., help further geographic relevance. Search engines notice consistent activity centered on a location.

Client interaction on platforms like LinkedIn, Facebook, or X directs traffic back to your own website. More visits, combined with branded searches, increase visibility and establish recognition that complements your firm’s global local SEO strategy.

Take the Next Step in Expanding Your Law Firm Online

A solid online presence in Washington, D.C., begins with the right strategy and the right tools. Local SEO provides your firm with visibility, but effective management of leads and cases ensures that growth produces tangible outcomes.

MedShark offers an integrated platform that unites client intake, communication, and case management. Coupled with solid local SEO as a foundation, your firm is both seen and operationally powerful.

Contact MedShark today and find out how the platform can drive your firm’s next level of growth.

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Craig Federighi Details Apple’s Collaboration With Google for Siri AI — Live, on Stage

Chance Miller, at 9to5Mac on Monday:

Apple’s Siri team, led by Craig Federighi, held a post-WWDC keynote tech talk with members of the press this afternoon to talk through iOS 27 and the new Siri AI. During the talk, Federighi shared more details about Apple’s collaboration with Google. Federighi was joined by Amar Subramanya (vice president of AI), Mike Rockwell (Siri lead), and Sebastien Marineau-Mes (software VP).

On the Google collaboration, Federighi explained:

Of course, we don’t have the Gemini app as our app. In fact, none of that client code is part of how we run on iOS. For these models, we use none of the models that Google deploys to their customers, nor do we use the infrastructure and means by which they deploy models to their customers. And then, when it comes to the knowledge base, we of course don’t use Google Search or anything like that as the foundation of our system. So I hope that’s clear. The amount of the Google Assistant we use is none.

So let’s talk about what we do use, or how our system is built.

This “Tech Talk” was good. It was detailed and technical, and there were live on-stage demos of Siri AI in action from Mike Rockwell. I don’t think Apple is ever going to go back to live on-stage major keynotes, but I do think the company is returning to more live events, including demos. There was a big live Siri AI/Apple Intelligence session for developers Tuesday morning in Steve Jobs Theater, which also had live demos. More like this, please.

 ★ 

★ Sweet Jeebus, MacOS 27 Golden Gate Removes the Dumb Icons From Menu Items

Perhaps the worst UI crime in MacOS 26 Tahoe was the inexplicable decision to add inscrutable, distracting icons next to every item in the menu bar. You will recall Jim Nielsen writing about it, rightly describing it as exactly the sort of thing that Mac users look down upon in platforms like Google Docs and Windows. You will also recall Nikita “Tonsky” Prokopov writing about it, illustrating that the bad idea wasn’t even implemented well, with different Apple apps using entirely different icons for the same menu items. You will also recall my linking to Nielsen (“I can tolerate being angry about UI changes Apple makes to the Mac. But I can’t tolerate being heartbroken.”) and to Prokopov (“The fact that Tahoe’s menu item icons are glaringly inconsistent and often utterly inscrutable is the fudge icing on a shit cake, but the real embarrassment is that the idea ever got past the proposal stage. No real UI or icon designers think this is a good idea. None.”)

Top third-party developers rightly rejected the design, adopting open source code from Brent Simmons to disable the default “icons in all standard menu items” behavior.

Wonderful news in MacOS 27 Golden Gate: the icons are gone. It’s like Tahoe’s menu item icons never happened. Prokopov noted it on Mastodon with before and after screenshots, and mentions that Apple has updated the Human Interface Guidelines accordingly:

Use menu item icons sparingly and with purpose. Icons allow people to find menu items more quickly, and help clarify what selecting an item does. Use an icon to highlight the most common actions and key features of your app, file system locations, connected devices, visual concepts like rotating or flipping an image, and user-generated content like folders and documents. Don’t display an icon if you can’t find one that clearly represents the menu item.

This updated advice in the HIG is perfect. Screenshot:

Screenshot from the updated HIG, with illustrations of menus with and without unnecessary icons.

MacOS 26 Tahoe — across every Apple app on the system — is a living example of the updated HIG’s “what not to do” example illustrations (including the second section about groups within a menu). If you’re stuck using Tahoe until Golden Gate arrives, recall this tip to alleviate the problem to some extent.

This is my favorite news from all of WWDC this week. I mean that. In a small way I mean it because I so loathe this aspect of MacOS Tahoe. But in a large way I mean it because it’s proof that the rot has been rooted out of Apple’s software design team. I don’t know if all the untalented hacks are gone, but the untalented magazine-designer hacks with clout and influence all left with Alan Dye. I’ve chatted with a few people from Apple’s design team this week and they’re all loving the work they’re doing and the direction they’re taking Apple’s platforms. Backtracking on these idiotic menu item icons was a necessary first step.

Apple: ‘Due to DMA, Siri AI Delayed in EU for iOS 27 and iPadOS 27’

Apple Newsroom, in an Apple Newsroom post Monday:

According to EU regulators, the DMA requires Apple to give any AI system nearly unlimited access to a user’s device, as well as the ability to act on that access autonomously without a user’s ongoing visibility and control. That includes the ability to read and send messages, make purchases, access files, and execute actions across any app. Security researchers have already shown that AI systems can be hijacked to steal personal data — like passwords and photos — and to permanently alter files and account settings without a user’s consent. As AI systems gain more capabilities, these risks are quickly increasing in frequency and scope.

Given the serious risks to users, Apple designed a solution called Trusted System Agent — an intermediary that would allow virtual assistants to safely access the same features and capabilities as Siri AI for devices in the EU. Apple also shared a plan to launch Siri AI in the EU while gradually rolling out this new solution over an 18-month period. The European Commission said no. In fact, the European Commission did not agree to any of Apple’s proposals.

Apple will continue working to bring these features to the European Union as safely as possible. However, given the clear dangers to EU users and the regulators’ failure to acknowledge these risks, there is currently no timeline for Siri AI’s availability in the EU on iOS and iPadOS.

There’s a lot to unpack here, including more background information — and on-the-record statements — from a briefing Apple held Tuesday that I was invited to at Apple Park. But the bottom line is that Apple’s public statements regarding the DMA and the European Commission have never been this strident before. In its public statements, Apple has always been diplomatic. That’s the word.

Now, they’re a bit more on war footing. There’s a massive gulf between what Apple is willing to do with Siri AI in the EU and what the Commission is demanding from Apple for DMA compliance. As things stand there’s no middle ground. Apple’s offers for compromise have been rejected. Unless one side changes its mind and concedes its current position, Siri AI will never come to the EU, and what Apple is saying here is that they’re unwilling to create the open-access-to-user-data system that the EC is demanding.

And from what I’ve seen so far in a day of testing Siri AI, EU iOS users are going to miss out on something really good.

 ★ 

Spielberg on Being Repeatedly Turned Down to Direct a James Bond Film

Steven Spielberg, on The Rest Is Entertainment on YouTube:

I approached Cubby Broccoli after Jaws was a big hit. I’d always wanted to make a James Bond film from the day I saw Dr. No, so I called Cubby after Jaws and volunteered. I said, “If you need a director, I would love to direct one.” And he said no. And he moved on.

And then Cubby called me again after Close Encounters came out. And that was a big hit. And Cubby called me a few years after Close Encounters and said, “We’d like to use the five notes in Moonraker.” And I said, “I’ll make you a deal. I’ll give you permission to use the five notes if you let me direct a Bond film.” And he said “Nope.” But I gave him the five notes anyway.

In Moonraker, the iconic Close Encounters notes are the passcode to the locked door of a secret lab that Bond (Roger Moore) needs to enter. Probably not so secure to play the passcode digits audible, but it’s a fun Easter egg. I always presumed that EON used it as fair-use homage, without bothering to ask Spielberg or Columbia Pictures for permission.

Spielberg, in his interview with The Rest Is Entertainment, goes on to explain the oft-repeated story that his disappointment over his rejection by Broccoli led to his collaboration with George Lucas to make Raiders of the Lost Ark, which I put on my short list for best movie ever made. The whole opening sequence of Temple of Doom — where Indiana Jones is wearing a dinner jacket and chaos erupts at a nightclub while Jones chases a vial of poison antidote while the other characters chase a diamond being kicked around the floor — is more Bond-like than most Bond films. (Oh, and that Shanghai nightclub’s name: Club Obi Wan. No need to ask permission for that one.)

 ★ 

Anthropic Walks Back Policy That Could Have ‘Sabotaged’ AI Researchers Using Claude

Anthropic Walks Back Policy That Could Have ‘Sabotaged’ AI Researchers Using Claude

Big scoop for Maxwell Zeff at Wired:

“We’re changing Fable 5’s safeguards for frontier LLM development to make them visible.” Anthropic said in a statement to WIRED. “We made the wrong tradeoff and we apologize for not getting the balance right.”

There's been a huge outcry about Anthropic's policy, tucked away in their system card, that Claude Fable/Mythos would identify "requests targeting frontier LLM development" and "limit effectiveness" without notifying the user.

It's good news that they're dropping the invisible aspect of this. It would be a whole lot better of they dropped this category of refusals entirely.

Update: More details from @ClaudeDevs on Twitter:

We’re rolling out changes to make Fable 5’s safeguards for frontier LLM development visible.

Starting this week, flagged requests will visibly fall back to Opus 4.8—the same as our safeguards for cyber and bio. You will see this every time it happens. On the API, any flagged requests will return a reason for their refusal (coming to server-side fallback in the next few days).

We wanted to deploy Fable 5 to our users quickly and safely. Visible safeguards can be probed, so they have to be robust, which takes time to get right. Invisible safeguards can be targeted more narrowly, allowing us to ship quickly with very few false positives. We went with invisible safeguards for this reason—and that was the wrong tradeoff. You should have visibility into the safeguards we have in place, and why. We’re sorry for not getting the balance right.

Via @zeffmax

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, claude, ai-ethics, claude-mythos

datasette-agent 0.2a0

Release: datasette-agent 0.2a0

Highlights from the release notes:

  • Tools can now ask the user questions mid-execution. Tools that declare a context parameter receive a ToolContext object, and await context.ask_user(...) can ask a yes/no, multiple-choice (options=[...]) or free-text (free_text=True) question. While a question is unanswered the agent turn suspends: the question renders as a form in the chat UI and persists to the internal database, so suspended conversations survive a server restart. Once answered, the tool re-executes from the top with stored answers replayed, so call ask_user() before performing side effects. #20
  • New built-in save_query tool: the agent can save SQL it has written as a Datasette stored query. Saving always requires human approval - the agent shows the full SQL plus the proposed name, database and visibility, and nothing is stored until you click Yes. #20

The ask_user() feature was enabled by the new LLM alpha I built yesterday with the help of Claude Fable 5.

Tags: ai, datasette, generative-ai, llms, datasette-agent

Social Security is Facing a Political Crisis

Sad man sitting at table in kitchen stock photo

On Tuesday the Social Security Trustees released their latest report on the system’s finances. The numbers didn’t change much: Unless something is done, the Old Age Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program, Social Security’s official name, will be unable to pay full benefits starting in either 2032 or 2034, depending on some technical issues. That’s not far away: If the Trustees are right, the prospect of a Social Security crisis will loom over the next presidential administration.

It’s important to understand, however, the nature of the looming crisis. It won’t be an economic crisis. It won’t even be a serious fiscal crisis. Whatever you may have heard, Social Security isn’t in danger of going bankrupt.

What we’re facing, instead, is potential political crisis. Congress and the White House could easily take action to sustain America’s retirement system. But given the current state of our politics, there’s no guarantee that they will.

There is a widespread misunderstanding of how Social Security works. While Social Security was designed to look like a pension fund, it isn’t. A pension fund pays benefits out of a stock of assets it has accumulated over time. In contrast, Social Security operates as a government transfer program, like food stamps or Medicaid.

Now, unlike food stamps — but like the highway trust fund — Social Security is on paper supported by a dedicated tax, the payroll tax, that is assigned to that program. But I say “on paper” because from an economic point of view assigning the payroll tax to Social Security is just an accounting convention. What matters for the U.S. economy is the overall balance between government spending and government revenue, not the difference between one type of spending and one source of revenue. So there’s no inherent economic significance to the fact that by 2034 payroll tax receipts will be insufficient to cover promised benefits.

There is, however, a legislative issue. As long as the Social Security Administration can pay benefits out of payroll taxes and its cash reserve, there’s no need for Congress to vote each year to authorize benefits — they just keep going out until further notice. However, once those resources become insufficient, benefits will fall —by 17 percent according to the Trustees — unless Congress passes new legislation that “tops up” Social Security’s finances.

Yet the current administration and Republican party are such extremists that there is a real risk that Social Security will be held hostage on behalf of their goals. If this should come to pass, the hostage-takers will claim that shoring up Social Security is unaffordable. Right on cue, Mike Johnson, the Trump-sycophant Speaker of the House, declared on Monday that “entitlement programs” like Social Security “have to be adjusted and fixed,” and that Republicans will introduce a plan to that effect next year.

But this is a ploy, because while the cost of maintaining Social Security benefits at their promised level isn’t trivial, it is in fact affordable. According to the Trustees’ report, the actuarial balance of OASDI up through 2050 — the amount of additional funds it would need to keep paying full benefits for the next 25 years — is 1.06 percent of GDP. To put that number in perspective, the Trump administration proposes increasing military spending next year by $420 billion, equivalent to about 1.4 percent of GDP – without any discussion of whether that’s affordable

Yet how did we get to the point where Social Security will need to be topped up? The main answer is that we have an aging population, with a growing ratio of retirees collecting benefits to workers paying into the system:

Trump’s anti-immigration policies are making this problem worse. According to the Trustees’ report, lower immigration will deepen Social Security’s financial hole because many immigrants are working-age adults who will pay into the system for decades before they collect benefits. In fact, this problem may be much bigger than the report acknowledges: The report’s baseline assumption is that we’ll have net immigration of almost 1.2 million people a year, and even the pessimistic case assumes 750,000 a year. Meanwhile actual net immigration has already been cut far below that — and may now be negative.

Moreover, Social Security is being financially damaged by growing income inequality in America. Payroll taxes are levied only on wages up to $184,500, and they don’t touch capital income. With the distribution of income increasingly shifting from labor to capital, as well as becoming more unequal among wage-earners, revenue from the Social Security payroll tax has been falling as a share of national income. From 1990 to 2024, it fell from 5.02 percent of gross domestic income to 4.46 percent.

Which brings me to the question that, these days, we ask about everything: How might Social Security be affected by the advent of AI?

A short answer: If, as many of us fear, AI accelerates rising income inequality, it will further reduce the payroll tax receipts that currently pay for Social Security and further endanger its finances.

On the other hand, if AI, as its advocates promise, leads to faster economic growth, it will increase the potential tax base that could and should be used to support Social Security and other social insurance programs. But to take advantage of that larger base, we’ll have to get serious about taxing wealth and capital income.

Is Social Security in trouble? Yes, but only because of the way its financing is currently structured — a structure that no longer works well because our society and economy have become so unequal. Moreover, Trump’s immigration policies are further endangering its already deteriorating financial condition.

So don’t believe Republicans’ gaslighting that it will be necessary to cut Social Security benefits. All that is necessary to preserve Social Security is political will to raise taxes on the wealthy and a sensible immigration policy.

MUSICAL CODA

Actually 67 under current law.

datasette 1.0a33

Release: datasette 1.0a33

This alpha is a significant step on the road to a stable 1.0, finally extending the ?_extra= pattern I introduced in Datasette 1.0a3 to cover queries and rows in addition to tables. That pattern is also now documented!

I wrote a whole lot more about the new release on the Datasette project blog: Datasette 1.0a33 with JSON extras in the API.

Because API explorer tools are almost free to build now I had Claude Fable 5 in Claude Code (for the plan) and GPT-5.5 xhigh in Codex Desktop (for the implementation) build me this custom extras API explorer to help demonstrate the feature:

Screenshot of a web application titled "Datasette extras explorer". A URL input field contains https://latest.datasette.io/fixtures/facetable.json with a teal Explore button next to it. Below, a left panel labeled EXTRAS (30) lists checkboxes: all_columns - All columns in the table, regardless of _col/_nocol filtering; column_types - Column type assignments for this table; columns (checked) - Column names returned by this query; count - Total count of rows matching these filters; count_sql - SQL query used to calculate the total count; custom_table_templates - Custom template names considered for this table; database - Database name; database_color - Color assigned to the database. A right panel labeled RESPONSE shows GET /fixtures/fac… with Copy JSON and Copy URL buttons, then a dark JSON viewer showing 200 - 9.9 KB - 114ms and JSON: "ok": true, "next": null, "columns": (highlighted array) "pk", "created", "planet_int", "on_earth", "state", "_city_id", "_neighborhood", "tags", "complex_array", "distinct_some_null", "n", "rows": list of objects.

Tags: projects, datasette, annotated-release-notes, ai-assisted-programming

asyncinject 0.7

Release: asyncinject 0.7

I built this utility library to support an asyncio dependency injection pattern a few years ago. I was using it with Datasette and Claude Fable 5 spotted some bugs in the dependency which it then fixed for me. It's a very proactive model!

Tags: async, projects, python, claude-mythos

After nearly breaking, NASA's Deep Space Network "worked well" on Artemis II

NASA pushed its Deep Space Network beyond its limits during the Artemis I mission nearly four years ago. The global array of deep space communications antennas couldn't keep up with the routine demands of 40 robotic science missions and the extraordinary surge required by NASA's Orion space capsule as it flew around the Moon.

The experience in late 2022 reduced or delayed downlinks from several high-profile science missions, including the James Webb Space Telescope and Mars rovers, as the data-hungry Artemis I mission took priority on NASA's communications network. And that was before the first Artemis mission with astronauts onboard. When Artemis II launched April 1, NASA called upon the Deep Space Network (DSN) again to connect Mission Control to the Orion capsule as it soared more than a quarter of a million miles from Earth.

With a crew of four flying inside the spacecraft, the agency's appetite for data from Orion on Artemis II was even higher than it was on Artemis I. But at a little more than nine days, the Artemis II mission was shorter than the 25 days Artemis I spent in space, helping alleviate the communications overload. Artemis I also launched 10 small CubeSats into deep space, many of which required tracking and telecom services from the DSN. Artemis II carried fewer CubeSats.

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Links 6/11/26

Links for you. Science:

The secret to pigeons’ incredible navigation was hiding in their liver
Why AI Agents Keep Failing in Production
Scientists thought brain inflammation was driving long COVID but the scans told a different story
What Is RAG (Retrieval-Augmented Generation)?
Tiny blue octopus identified as new species
Why is Inference Slow and Expensive?
When funders interfere in the conduct of the science

Other:

Hyperfascism: Some notes toward a theory of Trumpism
Graham Platner and the Rise of Democratic Toxic Masculinity
The Creep of Politicization: A new assault on science highlights a broader pattern
The $1.75 Trillion Smash-and-Grab
The Biggest Tell That Something Was Written by AI
West Coast Cities Turn to Vacancy Taxes to Grapple with Housing Crisis
Scott Pelley Accuses CBS News Boss of ‘Murdering’ ‘60 Minutes’
How Did A C-Tier WWE Guy From Germany Become One Of The Most Popular Luchadores In Mexico?
Hegseth Strikes Female and Black Navy Officers From Promotion List
Trump’s Corrupt IRS Shakedown Backfires Badly as GOPers Turn On Him
Mamdani and Menin Blame Each Other For Delays to Fix Outdoor Dining
US Construction Spending on Data Centers Eclipses $50 Billion
Oregon governor halts undercover license plates for ICE
Starbucks quietly retired its AI agent just months after deployment after it miscounted coffee shop inventories and slowed down baristas
This Is What Trumpian Self-Dealing Looks Like
Was This the Moment That AI Psychosis Began?
AI Savings Misses ‘Should Be Making Executives Uncomfortable,’ Bain Says
Carneyism without Carney
The Supreme Court Keeps Pretending Trump Is a Normal President
Pentagon hires convicted Jan. 6 rioter for sensitive counterterrorism job
A stadium can’t be transit first without transit infrastructure
What if remote working, not AI, is to blame for weak junior hiring?
Trump’s $1.5 Trillion Military Budget is $11,200 per Household for His Dementia Dreams
These AI models are free, private, and will never say ‘no’
Nonfiction Book Publishers Aren’t Remotely Ready for AI
Why did the press ignore a gathering of the world’s leading fascists?
The Trump Administration Is Spending $5 Million to Coat Horse Statues in Gold
Trump’s $250 Greenback Is a Gift to the Criminal Class
Gen Z’s political gender divide is now showing up in schools
New York’s Israel Day parade was a shanda — but not because of Mamdani. Honoring three far-right Israeli ministers was an indefensible political choice

Enhanced License Plate Tracking

The surveillance company Leonardo wants more data:

A surveillance company plans to add sensors to automatic license plate readers (ALPRs) that would mean the devices, as well as capture the license plate of passing vehicles, would also sweep up unique identifiers of mobile phones, wearables, and other Bluetooth-enabled devices in those cars, potentially letting law enforcement identify specific drivers or passengers.

The technology, called SignalTrace, would turn ALPR cameras from devices focused on tracking cars to ones that can more readily track the location of particular people. ALPR cameras have become a commonly deployed technology all across the U.S.; SignalTrace would make some of those cameras capable of collecting much more data.

Yes, it’s bad that more companies are collecting this level of surveillance data. But all of this pales in comparison to the type and quantity of data our smartphones already collect about us.

Alternate link.

Personalism and War: What’s Up With Trump and Iran?

The U.S. and Iran have drifted back into active combat and President Trump is on Truth Social promising again to rain destruction down on the country and now more explicitly promising the outcome which triggered this conflict in the first place: the idea that Trump would duplicate in Iran what he has, kind of amazingly, pulled off so far in Venezuela. It’s a good moment to remember what’s going on here — what we’re doing here, big picture.

This war has been going on for almost four months. But most of that time has been under one or another kind of ceasefire, albeit often honored in the breach. A friend recently compared it to the so-called “Phoney War”, the eight-month period in 1939 and 1940 when Germany, France and Britain were nominally at war, though full-scale combat didn’t begin until the invasion of France in May 1940.

But this is different. And the key reason isn’t so much the dynamics of the conflict itself as the personalist rule that now defines the U.S. government under Donald Trump’s second presidency. As I’ve argued previously, the core issue here is that Trump lost this conflict either in its first hours or days. The clerical government didn’t fall, which was always a long shot at best. Iran moved to menace and then close the Strait of Hormuz. Then Trump made it clear with his actions that he was more responsive to the pain of the conflict (primarily electoral for him) than Iran was. All of that became clear at the very beginning. To put it in simple terms, he lost. Governments sometimes fall in such moments. Under less personalist regimes there are apparatuses in governments which can move toward some conclusion. But here we are operating entirely within the grievances, fears, whims and general psychodrama of a single man.

When I think about this I think about someone who makes a really bad bet on a stock which drops to 20% of its value soon after you buy it. That guy won’t ever sell because as long as he doesn’t sell he can pretend it’s just a short-term reverse. He doesn’t have to lock in the reality of the defeat. Keeping the remaining capital parked in a moribund company is the rent he pays to avoiding facing reality.

Trump’s position is just the same. We’re in this unending groundhog day quasi-war, with weekly cycles of “just-about-done deal, really I promise!” followed by new threats because Trump can’t accept what happened. Presidents always call the shots on big questions of war and peace within the executive branch. But you don’t get the current situation in anything else but the personalist regime Trump has constructed around himself.

I’m seeing some commentary this morning that Trump’s new round of threats to “Venezuelanize” Iran is reacting to Fox News’ demands that he escalate the conflict, or “finish it,” as they put it. That may be the immediate trigger, the latest geriatric reaction to that Trumpworld mixture of soft criticism and goading encouragement. But the big picture remains the same. We’re stuck in this groundhog day tragicomedy because Trump acted on impulse in a vast act of executive self-soothing, and now he is unable to move forward because actually moving forward — as opposed to remaining in place, stuck like a couple in a broken marriage — because that requires facing the consequences of his own actions, which he is entirely unable to accept.

Brunson

I’m not a huge basketball fan. A casual one, mostly. But it’s become more central to my sports interests over the years. When I was a kid, baseball and football were the only sports and baseball was … well, baseball. What else was there to say? At least in our home that’s how it was. But I’ve been pulled in the same way as the whole society has by the rise of American basketball over the course of my lifetime. And I’ve been pulled hard into Knicks’ destiny run. You’ll see other commentary about last night’s game, literally the biggest comeback in NBA playoff history. But I wanted to share one moment with you, one that came after the game when Knicks captain Jalen Brunson went on ESPN’s Inside the NBA post-game show.

Brunson got asked about the game. And then he got asked a series of questions that were on the order of, was there a moment when you thought we’ve lost this game? that you started to lose hope? Brunson made some general comments and then he said this: “You’re allowed to think about the worst possible scenario. But you gotta go out there and do something about it.”

I heard it and it immediately clicked for me on many levels: clarity, epiphany. I rewound the YouTubeTV feed a couple times because I wanted to get the wording exactly right. Perseverance and loyalty and dignity have always been very important to me — the values or totems through which one can come into alignment with oneself — probably for reasons tied to childhood experiences but unfolding from there into a general outlook that infuses how I think about politics and, more broadly, how to think about and act in the world.

When I heard this I thought, This is a good mantra for fighting fascism, too. But it applies to every part of life.

How to share AI riches

From Donald Trump to Sam Altman, the idea of redistributing them is catching on. Does it make sense?

A simple reason for skepticism about the iPhones/fertility link

Here is the background to the debate.  Here is more from Noah.  Here is a thread from researcher Caitlin Myers.  And here is some basic information:

In 2008, 1.9% is the share of the mobile-subscribing population with an iPhone wireless subscription.  As a percent of all adults that is 1.6%.

In 2009, it is 4.3%.  3.6% of all adults.

In 2010, 6.8%.  5.5% of all adults.

Plus conception to birth takes nine months (give or take!), noting that actual family planning may make this lag far longer.  In 2008 fertility rates already were falling pretty sharply.  The whole “maybe the iPhone messes up your dating processes” factor also requires some time to operate, especially since iPhones as a network of many many users, and whatever negative effects on socializing you think that might have, was still to lie in the future.  And what you could access on the iPhone then was far more limited than today.

So when the authors talk about diffusion explaining 33–52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among American women 15–44, I still do not get how that is supposed to operate.

The explanations I am hearing seem to be parasitic on world intuitions from 2026, not the time period under consideration.

The post A simple reason for skepticism about the iPhones/fertility link appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The University In The AI Era

As I mentioned in “Yes, And�, I teach computer science at Montana State University.

In that earlier essay, I say that computer science is probably still a reasonably good area to study, but that you should also expand your skills beyond “just� computer science to help make yourself more employable in the future.

In this essay I want to think more about what AI means for universities in general and computer science programs in particular.

Note: I apologize that this is a longer essay. I have provided a Table of Contents to help you navigate it.


Table of Contents



First: Is The University Still Relevant?

An initial question that many people are asking is: in the era of AI, is the University still relevant?

This is not a new question. Many people have pointed to famous software industry figures who dropped out of college as proof that a university education isn’t useful in technology. And most people who have worked in Silicon Valley know at least one excellent engineer who either dropped out or simply never went to college.

So a college degree has never been a hard requirement for a successful career in technology. But, in reality, most software engineers have some sort of college under their belt and many of the best developers have studied computer science in their undergraduate education.

That being said, there is clearly an emerging crisis in Computer Science education that needs to be addressed in order to keep the university relevant in the post-AI world.

Writing Code

Historically, many computer science departments have looked at writing code as a secondary skill, to be picked up by students on their own, while the department focuses more on the theoretical foundations of computer science.

Since I was mature enough to have an opinion on the matter, I have viewed this as wrongheaded: I think you need to learn how to write code in order to appreciate those deeper theoretical foundations of computer science. If you can’t code up a linked list or use a hash table effectively, learning about the big-O behavior of them is much more abstract and difficult to grasp.

Ironically, in the era of AI, many professional environments are also starting to look at raw coding somewhat skeptically, sometimes insisting that their own engineers not write code at all, but rather use agents to generate it.

This approach may work for more experienced seniors, who have already written a lot of code and know what reasonable code looks like, but it puts junior developers in a bind: they don’t have pre-AI experience writing code, and now they are going into environments where no one is writing code.

As I said in “Yes, And�, you must write the code if you want to develop the ability to read code.

How is that supposed to happen at companies where nobody is writing the code?

I think this presents an opportunity for Computer Science departments: we can be the places where young software engineers write the code. By refocusing our curriculum on practical, code heavy assignments we can give students a safe environment, free of the time pressures and demands of corporate work, to write the code.

This experience can then put them in position to go into environments that use AI more heavily with the confidence that they know how to code and, because of that, that they are in a position to read and understand the code necessary for their career.

Signaling Competence in an AI World

Now, of course, students are famously lazy and famously clever in figuring out how to be lazy. So, many students will use AI to complete many of these code-heavy assignments. They will learn very little or nothing, but will get a good grade because, let’s be honest, AI can perform at or above the level required for most reasonable undergraduate projects.

Here another irony of the AI era becomes evident: Universities are now in a position to signal competence in a way that nearly no other institution can. AI has made online testing pointless. I know this because the last semester I offered online tests (which I like to do because it is convenient for my working students) the testing scores were through the roof.

While I feel I am a pretty good teacher, this was clearly a case of AI being used by my students, despite my pleas.

When thinking about what I could do about this I realized that we had all the infrastructure for the perfect answer: in person, on paper testing. Universities have large lecture halls, expensive printers, testing centers for people who need additional help, etc.

Previously, I would have scoffed at this infrastructure as antiquated. But now I see that it puts me in a position to more accurately establish the competence of my students in a way that is difficult to game: I offer in-person quizzes, with one page of handwritten notes and no digital equipment, roughly every three weeks of my courses.

Of course students can still cheat, but the quizzes are proctored and now at least they have to work for it.

This in-person, on-paper testing infrastructure puts universities in a unique position to provide a high signal-to-noise indication of the competence of their students to the outside world.

Towards An AI-accepting CS Curriculum

While I believe that the University CS degree is not only still relevant, but perhaps of more value than it was in the pre-AI era, I do think that significant changes need to be made to adapt to the new state of affairs. In this section I will describe what I have done over the last year with my courses, what I plan to do in the near future & then finish with some more speculative changes that I believe would help increase the usefulness of undergraduate CS degrees.

Current Changes

First, let’s start with the changes that I have already made to my courses over the last year to deal with the new AI reality.

Homework Is No Longer A Strong Signal

As with take home quizzes, due to the use of AI, homeworks & projects are no longer a strong signal of a students understanding of material.

Homeworks must become for the student’s benefit, opportunities for them to learn the art of writing code, rather than for evaluating their competency.

This is actually a good thing: homeworks can be more ambitious and the students that want to learn will have more opportunities to write more advanced code.

Yes, some (many?) will cheat on assignments, but the good students will have an opportunity to write code in a supportive environment.

To address this fact, I have reduced the weight of assignments in my classes from 60-80% (I have always had code-heavy classes) down to 50%, and I expect most students will get A’s on most assignments.

Homework Can Be More Ambitious & Realistic

Another homework related change that I have made is that my assignments are now more ambitious and realistic. I don’t mean they are much harder.

Insead, what I mean is that I can, with the help of AI, present much larger software systems to my students with better sample data, as a basis for their projects.

This allows students to see software systems that go beyond “Hello World� levels of complexity and to develop the ability to navigate, read and write code in a larger, more complicated and realistic context.

AI is a Great TA

Another thing I have found in the post-AI era is that my office hours traffic has dropped precipitously. I have always done my office hours in the computer lab on campus and, particularly for my compilers class, expected large crowds of students to come in asking for help on projects.

I think, unfortunately, this is most likely due to many students using AI to solve their programming problems.

However, there is a more optimistic read here: the students are using AI to better understand the projects and therefore do not need as much one on one help.

While I am ambivalent in many ways towards AI, this is an area where AI can significantly improve the university experience for students: with proper use, AI can be a fantastic TA. It is infinitely patient, has no other students waiting in line or it’s own classes to attend to and it is usually very competent at undergraduate level concepts in computer science.

The danger, of course, is that students simply use AI as a code generator to complete assignments and head off to the bars.

To address this danger, I ship a CLAUDE.md/AGENTS.md file in my class repos that directs AI agents to act like a good TA rather than a code generator.

Of course students can modify or delete this file, but there is no system so perfect that no one needs to be good.

Stanford University has recently modified this file for one of their own classes, and I encourage other people and departments to do the same: it is public domain.

The Return of Butt-in-chair, Handwritten Tests

As I discussed above, Universities have infrastructure for in-person testing that make them uniquely qualified to assess expertise and competence in the post AI world.

I have switched to all in-person quizzes, roughly every three weeks. The three-week cadence gives enough time to cover a significant amount of material, even if holidays are interspersed in those weeks, while de-escalating each quiz when compared to a traditional midterm/final setup.

I also allow one page of handwritten notes. I do not allow printed notes. The idea here is to force the knowledge through the student’s eye-brain-hand pathway multiple times in order to help reinforce it.

My students have grumbled about this process, but also admit that it works in helping them learn the material.

My questions are all written response, never multiple choice. Sometimes I ask for prose, sometimes I ask for pseudocode, sometimes I will provide code and ask students to annotate/explain it, etc. This makes it harder to grade the tests, but also makes it much harder to cheat.

I have found that AI is very good at suggesting questions based on class material for quizzes. I will work with an AI agent based on my class slides (see below) to create appropriate quiz questions and then create a quiz review sheet to help students study for the quiz based on it.

Students love the review sheet because it helps them focus their studing efforts.

I think that, from a learning perspective, the butt-in-chair quizzes have been the single most positive change I have made to my classes. I now make quizzes 50% of a student’s grade, and my class grading curve has returned to a reasonable shape.

Demos & Visualizations Are Cheap

Another adjustment I have had to make is that demos & visualizations are now very cheap to create with AI.

For a long time I was unhappy with the computer emulators that were available to me to teach my computer systems class. I wanted a 16-bit computer that struck a balance between the simplicity of something like The Scott CPU and the full complexity of something like SPIM.

Two summers ago we spent an entire summer building such a computer, called The Montana Mini Computer that provided strong visualizations of how low level computing works.

Unfortunately, when I got into a class using it, I realized that the architecture I had picked was too exotic (mixing concepts from MIPS & the JVM) and that students would be better off learning an assembly closer to x86. x86 would be particularly useful later in our security classes.

I was able to work with AI to produce a new MTMC that was much closer to x86 in only a few weeks. It was so successful that I switched to the new version of the MTMC mid-class in fall, and used it exclusively in spring.

Another visualization that I have created with AI is a JVM emulator that shows how stack frames and the operand stack work together to do computation. It is a visualization that I always wanted, but was unable to create. This was not due to lack of skill on my part (I am a reasonably competent programmer) but just lack of time and energy (I am old.)

So I have had to reset my thinking on demos & visualizations: If you can think of a demo and describe it, and if you are a reasonably good programmer, you can probably create it.

Class Content Should Be In Markdown

I have moved all my class slides to Markdown, using a tool called slidev and, generally, embraced Markdown for all my class content: SYLLABUS.md, etc. (Previously I was using Google slides for my lectures.)

All Markdown content is checked in to my class repository that students get.

Moving all my content to Markdown has been tremendously beneficial:

  • I can run AI analysis over my slides and look for gaps or inconsistencies
  • Students can run the content through an AI agent to create a more effective TA
  • It is much easier to bulk-update my slides if I make a major change to a class

I have always liked Markdown and, with slidev, I have nice syntax highlighting and access to Mermaid for technical diagrams. Or I can use good ol’ ASCII art, which is often very effective.

Having everything locally in text/Markdown makes it much easier for AI tools to work effectively in my classes. As I mentioned above, AI agents can easily look at my class slides and suggest quiz questions I might ask.

Class Analysis & Improvements

Another way I have used AI effectively, again enabled by moving everything to Markdown, is in reviewing my classes at a higher level:

  • I can compare my classes with courses offered at other universities to see if there are topics that I am missing
  • I can analyze my classes holistically and ensure that there are coherent threads between them (e.g. stack machines)

While this hasn’t revolutionized any of my classes I feel it has been useful in improving them.

Automate Everything

The final way that I have been using AI to improve my classes is in automating everything possible. I have always had a significant number of scripts that I use for the infrastructure in my classes: an autograder.py that runs the autograding for project checkpoints in CI, etc.

I have become much more aggressive in what I will automate and optimize now.

For example, I am using Tampermonkey to make parts of Canvas LMS easier to work with for my work flows:

  • I can paste in a youtube URL, and it will automatically create a link for me in Canvas
  • I can drag and drop files directly from my OS into Canvas

You can see the tampermonkey script here

I have also created command line scripts for scheduling new Youtube streams, parsing our autograder output into Canvas compatible format, etc.

At this point, if there is friction somewhere in my class I try to think how I would remove it if I had the time, then consider if an LLM could generate that solution.

Upcoming Changes

I plan on implementing the following changes in the upcoming semester.

Stronger Pseudocode Standards

With on-paper quizzes becoming a standard, it has become clear that I need a strong pseudocode standard for students to use on quizzes.

We are working on an “executable� pseudocode, Notch, to address this. It is english-like (it is an xTalk variant) and uses standards from Java, so the students should be able to pick it up easily. We will of course be lenient on syntax when it is used as pseudocode.

I intend to provide a pseudo-code guide that students are allowed to bring to quizzes for reference.

We will see how it goes.

AI & Non-AI Tracks

In many of my classes I will have students give end-of-semester presentations and I often offer a reward for the best in show. In the upcoming year I am splitting these presentations into two tracks: AI & non-AI.

This will allow students who do not want to use AI to compete with one another and, I hope, encourage more students to not use AI for their projects.

I will stress that I will review the non-AI winner’s code base and, if I sniff any AI, they will be heavily penalized.

Open Source Work

AI is disrupting Open Source work significantly. It changes the calculus on build vs buy dramatically in favor of build. This is made more compelling by people recognizing that dependencies are liabilities, especially from a security perspective.

Of course much of the AI model training set consists of open source work and many open source developers are understandably upset about this.

Chad Whitacre, an open source advocate who I respect tremendously, has decided to step away from technology entirely due to the situation.

I do not have any good answers of how to prevent AI models from using open source work for training, nor do I have a good answer for financing open source work in general.

However, one possibility that I see is that universities become more explicitly involved in open source work, by forming open source groups. We have done so at Montana State to support tools we use in our classes.

Universities have independent financing that allows them to pursue projects with steady (if unglamorous) levels of financial backing. This also dovetails with the public mission of many universities. Montana State, for example, is a land grant university, founded for “the advancement of agriculture, mechanical arts and military tactics.�

Leaving aside military tactics, open source is one way that public universities can contribute to the public good in a meaningful way.

Clearly, Honestly Communicating The Dangers of AI

This upcoming semester I am going to spend more time communicating the dangers of AI to my students. The most obvious short term danger is that they won’t write the code and, therefore, will not learn the skills needed to read the code.

They may get good grades on assignment, but my quizzes will be difficult and, when they enter the real world, they will not be able to work effectively, either with or without AI.

There are also studies showing that AI is stultifying and homogenizes away creativity.

I have been telling my students for many years now that they face far, far more temptations to behave poorly than any generation before them. That they face more difficult temptations in a week than their grandparents generation faced in years and perhaps decades.

With AI we now have another dimension, automated cheating, along which they will need to exercise even greater virtue than previous generations.

I stress to them that I admire the heroism of their generation in resisting these temptations.

(I think older generations would do well to recognize this fact.)

Speculative Changes

Finally, I want to give a few concepts that I have thought of given an unlimited time & money budget.

The “CS+� Concept

An idea proposed by MSU professor Laura Stanley is “CS+�: integrating computer science education plus other majors in a meaningful way. Studies have shown that this increases the appeal of computer science more broadly to the student body.

I think this is a fantastic idea and will be working with our department to help re-orient our minor towards this concept. My hope is that we can refocus the minor and the first two years of our major program towards practical problem-solving with computers.

Perhaps AI will reduce the number of computer scientists needed in the world (I am skeptical of this claim) but it will certainly not reduce the need for technically adept students across the economy, both public and private. I think we can present a strong case to non-CS majors: “You can be a good X, but add CS and you will be among the best!�

I think this program can obviously appeal to engineering, science and technical majors such as economics, etc. However, I also think it is an opportunity to expand into liberal arts and social sciences. I can imagine a “CS+� minor being extremely useful for a sociology major, for example, and hope we can reach out to students in those departments once we have established the shape of our program.

This may not just be a matter of my own preferences (I admit I like this idea conceptually, not just practically): if CS departments do not consider this sort of program they may see falling enrollment as students avoid the CS major due to AI fear.

Network Isolated Computers

I think it would be very forward-thinking for computer science departments to create network isolated computer labs.

These systems could be used to assess student competency while still providing a nice computing environment with IDEs, etc. without the risk of AI-generated solutions.

I can imagine assignments and quizzes that utilize this resource quite effectively. It would be a large investment and require management and upkeep, but could be very valuable if done well and perhaps become a centerpiece of a department’s teaching strategy.

Interview-Based Grading

Finally, another way to avoid AI poisoning the evaluation of students is, again, returning to the past: sitting down and having a conversation with a student to determine their grade.

While I do not have experience directly with oral exams, my experience in office hours tells me that I can determine the competence of a given student in roughly five minutes of conversation, guiding the conversation to the level that they are comfortable with, giving hints where necessary, etc. and determine a reasonable grade for them in a manner that would be very hard to game.

Now, many of my classes have 100+ students, and if it took, say, 15 minutes per student interview, that is 25 hours of total interview time. This is not realistic given the current structure of classes (I currently have 3 hours of lecture over 15 weeks, or 45 total hours.)

However, a forward-looking university might restructure finals week (or perhaps two finals weeks) in such a way to allow oral exams, and it would provide a much better final analysis of students’ achievement in a class.

(Of course it would be a lot more work for professors, so I view this as unfortunately unlikely.)

Conclusion

So, yes, I think The University is still relevant in the post-AI era and, in fact, may become more relevant due to some structural advantages it has, particularly in signaling student competence to the outside world.

I do think computer science departments will need to adjust to the new realities and consider some somewhat radical changes in order to maximize their value to their students. Most importantly, I think universities should increase their focus on providing hand-coding opportunities to students, since these opportunities are becoming less available after students leave school.

I hope that this essay helps computer science educators improve their course offering so that we can continue to produce competent and confident computer scientists for the foreseeable future.

Note: No AI was used in the writing of this essay. AI was used to correct typos and to produce the table of contents.

The Physics of Interstellar Travel

Coryn Bailer-Jones’ The Physics of Interstellar Travel fills a need which has become apparent only in the last twenty years. Indeed, going back to the turn of the century, one would find the idea of traveling to another star discussed only in relatively isolated pockets, often presented at the tail end of conferences devoted to other astronautical topics. Papers, though, were being written at an increased rate, building on early work begun in the 1950s through the efforts of luminaries such as Les Shepherd and Eugen Sänger and continuing into the era of Robert Forward. By the year 2000, a number of mission designs had been created, still very much on the back burner but of high interest to specialists.

In today’s landscape, interstellar travel has become a vibrant topic. The wave of interest that energized the field incorporated high-visibility projects like NASA’s 100 Year Starship and in 2016, the emergence of the Breakthrough Starshot Initiative, which focused directly on the design of a probe that could reach a nearby star, presumably Proxima Centauri, within a human lifetime. Public interest in starflight has likewise been galvanized by the fast pace of exoplanet discovery, and growing attention to the question of studying such worlds through actual missions. Cementing the enthusiasm has been a stream of Hollywood depictions that offered viewers enticing imagery of such journeys.

The surge in papers discussing interstellar flight has exposed the lack of a college- and graduate-level treatment, a textbook wholly devoted to this topic. The Physics of Interstellar Travel meets that need with the precision of a key clicking home in a lock. It is a thoroughly researched analysis that presents travel to a star within the context of known physics, validating the perception that such journeys are within the realm of future engineering. Early chapters on orbital mechanics and the mathematics of rocketry illustrate the fact that each section can stand on its own in specialized classes at higher levels, while the quantitative analysis offered here will be of use to any student who has mastered college physics and is ready for the next educational step.

Although Bailer-Jones accepts the idea that star travel violates no physical laws, he is careful to acknowledge the challenges that emerge and the direction of future work that will eventually meet them. The principles of rocketry lead him to present fusion and beamed lightsail concepts as the likeliest paths forward, with the clarity provided by mathematical analysis applied to options including ion engines and antimatter. The nature of the interstellar medium is considered in terms of dust mitigation as well as the possibility of ramjet solutions. Communications and navigation receive thorough treatment but so do the essentials of orbital mechanics and relativistic motion.

The Physics of Interstellar Travel is, in short, a comprehensive extension of current textbooks in astronautics into the realm of missions once thought to be impossible. This book’s mathematical rigor should clarify for rising students the realization that steps we take today can result in practical outcomes, with the goal of reaching another star conceivable by the end of this century. Bailer-Jones advocates a step-by-step approach in which precursor work always tests new ideas to avoid the problem of future missions making earlier ones obsolete before they have reached their target. Where science and engineering have not yet taken us, this textbook illustrates the direction of steps forward, aiding the community in the construction of the needed roadmap.

Biological Evolution and Information Acquisition

A few weeks ago we looked at a simulation of technological evolution by economist Brian Arthur, in which he was able to start with simple building blocks (such as a NAND gate) and evolve surprisingly complex circuits (such as a 12-way AND gate or a 4-bit adder) by randomly combining increasingly useful existing components. We analyzed this as a way of simplifying a search problem: by using existing, working components as modules that can be combined, a few at a time, into more complex modules, and then combining those into even more complex modules, many unpromising and time-consuming branches of the search tree are screened off, and the simulation can find useful technologies amidst an enormous branching set of possibilities.

Real human technology is, of course, not generated by randomly combining components together and seeing if they do anything useful; the randomness in these simulations is just a way to see how easy or hard it is to create new technologies under different conditions. But biological technology — the huge panoply of lifeforms that exist on earth, from microscopic single-celled organisms to whales the size of a 737 — is also generated by randomness. Evolution builds biological technology bit by bit by harvesting the fruits of genetic variation, often caused by random mutation, preferentially selecting the most fit organisms to propagate their genes into the future. Over billions of years, this process can generate astoundingly complex biological systems.

What’s interesting is that biological evolution uses a very similar trick to Arthur’s circuit simulation. By leveraging modularity at the genetic level, populations of organisms can increase the rate that useful genetic variants spread through the population, effectively increasing their rate of information acquisition. Sexual reproduction, along with other ways of sharing genetic material like horizontal gene transfer, is essentially a mechanism for doing this. We can show this with some simple simulations.

Evolution and reproductive strategies

The simplest way for an organism to reproduce is asexual reproduction, where a parent produces a child that’s a genetic copy of itself. Simple single-celled organisms, for instance, reproduce by cellular fission, dividing into two or more “children” that each have the same genes as the original parent.

But children won’t necessarily be identical copies of their parents. Due to genetic mutation, some genes might get randomly altered during the fission process, producing children with slightly different genes. In some cases, these mutations might be useful, giving additional functionality such as antibiotic resistance and thus better odds of surviving and reproducing. Because of their contribution to the organism’s fitness, over time the useful mutations will become more and more common in the population.

We can demonstrate this with a simple simulation. In our simulation, we start with a population of 100 creatures, each of which has a genome of 200 individual genes. A gene can either be a 1 (the “good” version of the gene) or a 0 (the “bad” version of the gene). The initial population is random, with each creature having roughly a 50-50 mix of good and bad genes. Each iteration of the simulation, each creature produces two children. A child copies the genes of its parent, but due to mutation each gene has a 0.2% chance of being flipped, going from a 1 to a 0 or vice versa. The 100 most fit children (where fitness is just the sum of each gene value, since 1 is the “good” version of the gene in our simplified model) are selected to continue the next generation, and the cycle repeats. This is a simplification compared to how evolution actually functions — for one, it treats genes as contributing to fitness independently, ignoring the fact that the fitness value of one gene often depend on other genes — but it’s enough to show some of the dynamics at work.

When we run this simulation, the proportion of “good” genes in the population steadily rises over time as more-fit offspring outcompete less-fit offspring. Depending on the mutation rate, the population may eventually reach maximum possible fitness of 200, or plateau at some level below it.

The problem with this strategy — producing children that are noisy copies of a single parent, and relying purely on random mutation as a source of genetic variation — is that once you’re at above-average fitness, mutations are likely to be bad on average. If a genome has more 1s than 0s, a random change will be more likely to change a 1 to a 0 than a 0 to a 1. Thus for parents of above-average fitness, their children will on average have lower fitness.

Because mutation is random, there will nonetheless be variation, and some children will end up with higher fitness than their parents. And because selection eliminates the least fit each iteration, the pool of selected children will have higher average fitness than their parents, allowing average fitness to increase over time. But mutation reducing average fitness drags down this process.

You can see this in the graph below, which shows a simulation with slightly different parameters (a genome length of 1000 and a mutation rate of 2%) to more easily see the trends. The top graph shows the distribution of population fitness at generation 50, and the second graph shows the distribution of the population’s children prior to selection. You can see that, thanks to mutation, average fitness has dropped, though due to randomness some proportion of the children have lucked into getting higher fitness. The last graph shows the children after the top half of the distribution has been selected. Average fitness rises, and is now above the initial population, though just barely.

Now let’s look at a simulation of a different reproductive strategy: sexual reproduction, where children get their genes from two parents rather than just one. In this simulation, we still have a population of 100 creatures with genomes of 200 genes, each of which can either be a 0 or a 1. But now children have two parents, and in each iteration members of the population are paired up randomly and each pair produces four children. Children get their genes from both parents with each gene having a 50% chance of coming from a particular parent. The top 100 most fit children are then selected for the next generation, and the iteration continues. In this simulation, there is no mutation, so genetic variation entirely comes from reshuffling the genes of the parents.

Like the previous simulation, the population gradually reaches maximum fitness. But sexual reproduction gets there much faster. With asexual reproduction, after 200 generations the population was around an average fitness of 187. With sexual reproduction, the population average reached the fitness maximum of 200 in just 33 generations.

The key is that sexual reproduction introduces genetic variation without reducing average fitness. Since children are a random combination of their parents’ genes, on average they’ll have the same fitness as their parents (with some randomly having higher fitness, and others randomly having lower fitness). When the most-fit children are selected for the next generation, this is taking the top half of a distribution with a much higher average than the distribution of children in the asexual simulation. Average fitness thus rises much faster.

If you work out the math (or, as I did, simply read the math that someone else worked out), in an asexual population the rate of fitness increase is 1/(8*f), where f is the differential normalized fitness. (The normalized fitness of a population is the average fraction of good genes in that population; so a population where, on average, a member has 150 good genes in a genome of 200 would have a normalized fitness of 0.75. Differential normalized fitness is the normalized fitness of the population minus 0.5, the normalized fitness of a randomly generated population.) Early on, fitness of a population can increase quickly, but the rate soon drops below an increase of 1 unit of fitness per generation (one gene flipped from a 0 to a 1 on average). As a population gets closer to maximum possible fitness, the rate of fitness increase approaches 0.25 (flipping one gene, on average, from a 0 to a 1 every four generations).

With sexual reproduction, on the other hand, the rate of fitness increase turns out to be much higher: it’s proportional to the square root of the length of the genome.

The informational power of genetic recombination

One way to think about why sexual reproduction is so powerful is to look at lineages of descent. Say that one of the members of our asexually reproducing population stumbles across a new, useful mutation. Because genes are passed from one parent to one child, the only way this gene can spread throughout the population (in the absence of some other member of the population also stumbling across it) is if the children of whoever has it outcompete the children of everyone else. In this scenario, the population eventually ends up consisting entirely of descendants of one particular member of the population — as a necessary condition of this spread, every other genetic lineage (along with whatever useful mutations they might have stumbled across) gets wiped out.

We can see this in our simulation results. The chart below assigns each member of the initial population, and their children, a unique color. The simulation starts out with 100 different colors (one for each member of the population), but this quickly gets winnowed down to a much smaller number. After a few generations, the population is one uniform color, all descendents of one particular member of the initial population. (This chart is from one particular simulation run, but repeated runs will show the same behavior.)

If we redo the color coding whenever the population reaches the point where everyone is descended from a single ancestor, we see that this happens repeatedly. In the chart below, the population at generation 48 are all descendants of one particular member of the population who lived in generation 25. At generation 80, they’re all descendants of one particular member alive from generation 48.

In evolutionary biology, this phenomenon is known as “clonal interference”: if two different beneficial mutations arise in different members of the population of the same generation they can’t be shared and so they end up competing against each other, and one beneficial mutation ultimately gets wiped out.

Image of clonal interference via wikipedia. In the bottom image of an asexually reproducing population, beneficial mutations “B” and “A” appear in different lineages, but then “B” is wiped out, only reoccuring later through mutation and subsequently spreading through the population. In the top representation of a sexually reproducing population, B and A independently arise but can quickly be shared, spreading through the population much faster.

With a sexually reproducing population, on the other hand, useful mutations can be shared much more easily. In an asexual population, a member has one parent, one grandparent, one great-grandparent, and so on. But in a sexual population, a member has two parents, four grandparents, eight great-grandparents, etc. Beneficial variation from earlier generations can spread much more easily.

We can see this in the graph below, which shows the proportion of genes of the original members of a sexually reproducing population represented in the gene pool at any given time. We can see that the proportion stays very high: genes from almost 75% of the original population are found in the population after 34 generations. In the asexual population, this was 1% (and would be even lower in larger populations, since it’s just 1/total starting population).

We previously noted that Brian Arthur’s circuit simulation took advantage of modularity, finding useful subcomponents, locking in their designs, and then using those to build more complex technologies. Once the simulation finds a 3-way AND gate, it can use that to make a 4-way AND gate, which it can use to make a 5-way AND gate. We likewise noted that if you’re trying to build an 8-bit adder by randomly combining NAND gates together, it’s vastly easier if you can add one NAND gate at a time and verify you’re correct than if you have to guess all 68 gates at once.

You can think of this like someone solving a combination lock. A lock with a five-digit combination, with 100 possible values for each digit, has 100^5 = 10 billion possible combinations. Trying combinations one by one would take forever.

Technological modularity is like being a skilled lockpick that can check whether each individual digit attempted on a combination is correct (maybe by listening carefully you can hear a telltale “click” when the dial is in the right spot). Now instead of searching over 10 billion possible combinations, you’re doing five searches over 100 possible values each, or 500 possibilities total. The space of possible options that must be considered is vastly reduced.

Sexual reproduction is, as I understand it, doing something similar: by letting genes from two parents be combined to form children, it effectively lets the fitness of each gene be tested independently, turning the search from something like “find the best 200-gene genome” to something closer to 200 parallel “find the best gene at this location” searches. In our combination lock analogy, the modular circuit simulation is sort of like turning the dial until you hear a “click,” which indicates that the given number is correct. Sexual reproduction is more like trying a bunch of different random combinations, getting back a score for “how close this combination is to being solved,” and using that to infer which “dials” are correct. The search space is correspondingly greatly narrowed, and the search proceeds much faster.

With Arthur’s technological search, we couched this reduction in terms of information theory, calculating the bits of information gleaned per iteration. (As a reminder, a “bit” is just “something that cuts the number of possibilities to consider in half.”) In our 8-bit adder, 68 NAND gate search, finding the working arrangement required narrowing down 2^853 possibilities, or 853 bits. Trying to get all 68 gates right at once got us less than 0.000001 bits per attempt, requiring a long and painful search. But with modularity — going gate-by-gate and knowing whether each gate is in the correct location — we accumulate information much faster, around 0.003 bits per attempt (3,000x faster than nonmodular search).

We can similarly look at biological evolution and the spread of useful genetic variants in terms of information acquisition. For our simulations, the information we have at a given time is a function of how “certain” the population is about the value of each gene. With our starting, randomized population for each gene approximately 50% of the population has a 1 and 50% has a 0, we’re maximally uncertain, and we have 0 bits of information for each gene. When the population has reached maximum fitness (every member having a 1 for every gene) we’re maximally certain, and we have 1 bit of information for each gene. Total information is thus roughly equal to 2 * (F - G/2), where F is fitness and G is genome length.

We can see that information is acquired much more quickly in our sexual reproduction simulation than in our asexual simulation.

There’s an important caveat to all the above analysis: it assumes that genes independently contribute to fitness: that is, that the usefulness of gene 27 isn’t a function of gene 145. When genes are coupled like this, and the usefulness of one genetic variant is a function of what other genetic variants you possess (as they often are in practice), the evolutionary search process gets much more complex to analyze. (Stuart Kauffman has done a lot of work here with his concept of NK landscapes, which you can read about here and here.) But the simple, additive fitness case is still useful for understanding these evolutionary mechanics.

It’s also important to know that in real life, asexually reproducing organisms like bacteria have ways of sharing genes between them that get them some of the benefits of sexual reproduction. Bacteria widely engage in what’s known as horizontal gene transfer, which is exactly what it sounds like: genes being transferred between existing members of a population. This is apparently how genes for antibiotic resistance mostly spread, and some analyses suggest that 20-80% of bacterial genomes are the result of this sort of gene transfer.

Conclusion

The technological search process benefits greatly from modularity: being able to break a technology down into subcomponents with specific functionality, and determining whether those subcomponents are functioning properly. In information theoretic terms, this greatly narrows the possibilities that must be considered in a search process. It’s interesting to see that biological evolution, which creates and operates in an entirely separate domain, uses a similar sort of trick: using genetic recombination (in the form of sexual reproduction and horizontal gene transfer) to make the search process more modular and gain information more rapidly.

(For more about these ideas about evolution and information acquisition, including a much more rigorous mathematical treatment, see chapter 19 in David Mackay’s book “Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms.”)

Thursday assorted links

1. Fable 5 describes humanity.  And Anthropic policy proposals, including for economics.

2. “Can you build a working chess board which then illustrates and can play the moves of the famous “Evergreen game”?”  The responseMuch better yet is Fable 5 explaining Riemann.

3. Marcus Nunes on Chile vs. Argentina.

4. In the video world, AI is reasonably popular rather than hated.

5. Solve for the equilibrium! It is not always easy to do.

6. How avocados stopped being seasonal.

7. New Stanford program for AI economic indicators.

8. Music and video for the Pope.  Or is it for Gaudi?

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The Political Press Corps Still Does Not Understand What the Epstein Files Mean for MAGA

Or maybe they’re just afraid to say it. Yesterday, the NY Times ran a palace intrigue story about the Trump administration’s attempt to manage the fallout from the Epstein files. It’s clearly informed by Vice-President Vance’s people, but it’s still pretty interesting.

But it’s clear from reading the story that the NY Times reporters along with the political press corps in general seems either unable or unwilling to understand that the Epstein Files are not (just) a ‘sex scandal’ that could topple Trump, but a load-bearing structure for conspiracist MAGA ideology. Throughout the entire story, which is about how they really did not manage the Epstein files well, there is no attempt to explain at all why this scandal mattered to the faithful and other scandals, like being an adjudicated rapist, did not.

The reporters never really broach why the Epstein Files are so important to MAGA et alia. There are some hints, in that NY Times British crossword clue style, where they imply Vance, Patel, and Bogino are true-believer conspiracists, so unlike the other members of the Trump administration, they understand what the Epstein Files mean to MAGA and the Republican faithful.

In 2026, if you’re covering the Epstein files and you can’t explain to your readers that the Epstein files, which to the Republican base are just the latest iteration of QAnon-Comet Ping Pong conspiracies, offer meaning and (pseduo)explanation for the Republican faithful, then you really are failing to inform your readers.

Whether this is a lack of understanding or an unwillingness to present the unvarnished truth is left as an exercise for the reader.

Open Cosmos seeks deadline extension for broadband constellation

British small satellite specialist Open Cosmos is seeking more time to deploy its proposed sovereign broadband constellation for Europe after running into launch issues.

The post Open Cosmos seeks deadline extension for broadband constellation appeared first on SpaceNews.

ESA awards contract for next-generation radar imaging satellites

Sentinel-1 NG

Thales Alenia Space and Airbus Defence and Space won contracts to build the next generation of radar imaging satellites for Europe’s Copernicus Earth observation program.

The post ESA awards contract for next-generation radar imaging satellites appeared first on SpaceNews.

Long March 5 launches classified satellite, Zhuque-2E lofts direct-to-device test sats

China has conducted a pair of launches to advance its communications capabilities, using the country’s largest rocket and a commercial launcher.

The post Long March 5 launches classified satellite, Zhuque-2E lofts direct-to-device test sats appeared first on SpaceNews.

Missile defense in the age of saturation warfare

An illustration of the Golden Dome. Credit: Arcfield

With the evolution of new military technologies, the trajectory of war has undergone a massive change. Historically, wars were fought through direct confrontation on the battlefield, while contemporary warfare is […]

The post Missile defense in the age of saturation warfare appeared first on SpaceNews.

GEO cancellations complicate space insurance recovery

The recent cancellation of three geostationary satellites is another blow for insurers hoping their legacy cash cows would bring home much-needed income following a bruising run of claims. SES disclosed […]

The post GEO cancellations complicate space insurance recovery appeared first on SpaceNews.

The Nationalization of American Science

OMB, joined by some forty grantmaking agencies—NSF, HHS, DOE, NASA, DOD among them—has proposed a sweeping rewrite of the rules governing all federal grants, the Regulation for Federal Financial Assistance.

American science has long been state funded but not state directed. Since Vannevar Bush, money has flowed through many agencies to independent universities, allocated largely by peer review. The system has flaws—conformity, gerontocracy, waste—but it had one great virtue, the system was decentralized and not under state control. This rule proposes to bring science funding under top-down, state control.

Program goals must now be “aligned with administration policies and priorities” (§ 200.202). Merit review is subordinated to politics: “senior appointees must conduct these reviews,” ensuring “that discretionary awards advance the President’s policy priorities,” while “peer review remains advisory and does not replace agency discretion” (§ 200.205). And every grant becomes terminable at will, whenever it “no longer effectuates program goals, Federal agency priorities, or the national interest *as they exist at the time of the termination*” (§ 200.340, emphasis added). Universities must even ensure their subrecipients don’t “significantly damage the reputation of… the Federal Government” (§ 200.332)—a loyalty clause for scientists.

All this is sold as cutting “burdensome conditions,” a goal I would support, but sadly that is bullshit. The proposed rules add more paperwork and many more layers of bureaucratic review. Payment requests must include written justifications. Every disbursement gets screened through Treasury’s “Do Not Pay” system. Every recipient must run E-Verify. Applicants must disclose any employee who worked at the awarding agency within two years. And on top of the existing review machinery sits a new pre-issuance review committee of “senior appointees” second-guessing the experts. Fixed amount awards—pay for outputs, not inputs—an innovative reward mechanism are *eliminated*, so every award now gets routine cost monitoring and financial reporting.

Political review of every award, peer review demoted, agency review promoted, termination whenever “priorities” change. Chilling. It’s a nightmare of petty low-trust review of the kind that is already drowning science. I must deal with this kind of nonsense all the time. More is not better.

The machinery is centralized too. OMB’s guidance becomes binding regulation, effective government-wide with no agency rulemaking. One dial in the White House now turns every grant program in the country.

The new rules will be sold as getting rid of DEI but that is an excuse to bring in the commissars. The new rules don’t depoliticize science they create even more politicization with the sign flipped, and the drafters admit it:

In the previous administration, executive agencies frequently chose to subsidize and expressly prioritize projects based on their ideological alignment with the categories of activities discussed in the proposed version of § 200.300. See, for example, E.O. 13985, sec. 1, 86 FR 7009, 7009 (Jan. 25, 2021) (“It is therefore the policy of [the Biden] Administration that the Federal Government should pursue a comprehensive approach to advancing equity . . . .”). In this administration, executive agencies will continue to use their discretionary authorities in a manner consistent with current Executive Branch policy. If executive agencies were entitled to subsidize those types of activities during the previous administration, there is no constitutional basis to prevent the government from reaching a different policy determination regarding which activities to fund during this administration.

Read that twice. Tip your hat to the new constitution, take a bow for the new revolution. Will science prosper when it is whipped by political turnover? Research runs on decade timescales; administrations run on four-year ones.

A decentralized funding system is inefficient the way markets and federalism are inefficient—we give up some economies of scale and get experimentation, error correction, and robustness in return. A system in which every award advances “the President’s policy priorities” is efficient the way ministries of science are efficient. We know how that experiment ends.

America is moving in the wrong direction. We should double down on what made America great. Instead we are adopting all of the loser policies of authoritarian nations.

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Euthanasia and hospice care for pets

Medical aid in dying and hospice care are now available for pets too. 

 The New Yorker has the story:

When Should You Say Goodbye to a Pet?
Across the country, the booming industry of pet hospice is teaching people how to face the loss of their beloved companions.
By Sunita Puri 

" In the nineteen-seventies, hospice care evolved as more people resisted the compulsion to extend life at all costs, preferring instead to focus on dying comfortably, often at home. Now caring for a sick pet involved the same questions: What is a good quality of life? How much suffering is too much? And when is the right time to let go?

...

"The concept of pet hospice emerged in the eighties and nineties. In 1994, Amir Shanan, a Chicago-based veterinarian, was asked by a couple to euthanize their beloved dog at home. He started to advertise his work, and more people began calling. Their desire to give their pets a graceful end was so strong that they were willing to invite a stranger into their homes to do it. Shanan was astounded.

"Eventually, pet owners began to tell Shanan that they needed his help well before it was time for euthanasia. “With euthanasia, the focus is on the time of death, and grief after the loss, but there is so much more that happens in the time between a bad diagnosis and death,” Shanan told me. 

...

" In 2009, he founded the International Association for Animal Hospice and Palliative Care, which now has more than fifteen hundred veterinarian-members around the world. Shanan recruited a team that helped him develop guidelines, create a training program for veterinarians, and write an early textbook on the subject, which was published in 2017. The organization believes that dying is “a normal process,” and that its work allows pets and their families “to attain a degree of mental and spiritual preparation for death.”

"Although pet hospice is modelled on human hospice, there are fundamental differences between the two. Human hospice, which is covered by most insurance, involves treating the emotional, spiritual, and physical suffering caused by a terminal illness as it unfolds naturally. Enrollment requires a prognosis of less than six months to live, and euthanasia is never considered. (Some states have legalized medical aid-in-dying, in which patients self-administer a life-ending medication, but euthanasia, in which the medication is administered intravenously by a health-care provider, is illegal in the United States.) "

SpaceX launches 24 Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base to begin the Starlink 17-44 mission on June 11, 2026. Image: SpaceX

SpaceX launched its next Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Thursday morning, a day before the company’s stock becomes publicly available on the Nasdaq.

The Starlink 17-44 mission added another 24 broadband internet satellites to the company’s low Earth orbit constellation. There are more than 10,500 Starlink satellites currently in orbit.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East happened at 8:05:59 a.m. PDT (11:05:59 a.m. EDT / 1505:59 UTC). The rocket flew on a south-southwesterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1071. This was its 34th flight after launching five times for the National Reconnaissance Office, five SpaceX rideshare missions, Germany’s SARah-1, NASA’s SWOT, CAS500-2 for South Korea and 20 previous Starlink delivery flights.

The first stage booster launched on the SpaceX drone ship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You,’ positioned in the Pacific Ocean about eight and half minutes after launch. This was the 202nd landing on this vessel and the 622nd booster landing for SpaceX.

Don’t touch the art

Photo of a person with gloves handling a bronze sculpture with a colourful mural in the background.

Yoko Ono’s painting invites us to step on it, challenging both galleries and audiences. Why is touch transgressive?

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

The no-human future

Surreal digital collage artwork of a chaotic, dystopian scene, including a figure kneeling atop a globe surrounded skyscrapers, androids, screens and other natural and technological elements.

Terrorists and tech bros alike view accelerationism as a revolutionary weapon. Nick Land glimpsed something much darker

- by Vincent Lê

Read on Aeon

My excellent Conversation with Katja Hoyer

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary:

Tyler and Katja discuss why communism made East Germans more loyal to the system while it bred dissidents in Poland and Hungary, how happy or unhappy life in the GDR actually was, Tyler’s own bleak day-trip to East Berlin in 1984, the underrated literature of the GDR (Christa Wolf, Brigitte Reimann), whether Good Bye, Lenin! got the era right, why it’s no coincidence that Richter and Polke came from the East, the strange coexistence of communist prudishness and Germany’s nudist culture, what Merkel’s East German background did and didn’t give her as a chancellor, why East Germans remain dramatically underrepresented in leadership positions today, what makes Weimar the cultural and spiritual heart of Germany, why relatively few Jews ever settled there, how much the citizens of Weimar knew about Buchenwald, what actually killed the Weimar Constitution, how she’d rewrite the Treaty of Versailles, Hitler’s citizenship problem, underrated German thinkers, the complacency behind Germany’s current economic decline, which side of the Weißwurstäquator she’d choose to live on, and much more.

Excerpt:

COWEN: Why did the Weimar Constitution fail?

HOYER: How much time have I got?

COWEN: Americans typically think it’s that the proportional representation system allowed too many small parties to enter into government. That’s one factor, but what else is there?

HOYER: There are plenty of factors, I think. Some of these are inbuilt flaws, like the proportional representation that you just mentioned. Another one that’s often referred to as Article 48, which was a kind of emergency article that was in the constitution that allowed the president to bypass parliament and the other democratic structures in time of emergency.

If you just follow down this route, then the fall of the Weimar Republic becomes inevitable. If you’re just assuming that there were all these flaws in the constitution already, so therefore it was bound to fail, I don’t think that is the case because when you study this closely, you do see all these kinds of forks in the road as to where things could have gone differently. I don’t think the system was set up to fail. I think these things contributed to the brittle nature of this. I think there was perhaps a degree of naivety there in 1919 to think that you could have this ultra-democratic system without any guardrails.

When you think how long it took the American Founding Fathers to sit there and really work out every angle, and “What if we got a mad president, what do we put in there to try and protect against that?” Those sorts of things. That process is so rushed in 1919 that they just put an ultra-liberal democracy in place, which allows extremists to hijack it. That is part of the reason. I think the other group of reasons is the circumstances under which the system is born. It’s basically born into crisis. It comes on the back of the First World War and then runs into economic trouble very quickly. That never really goes away despite the so-called gilded years in the middle. All of that’s propped up by American money, even the stability years of the middle 1920s. The moment that falls because of the Wall Street crash, you basically get the very economic foundation taken away again.

The subtitle I chose for the book, Life on the Edge of Catastrophe, I’m trying to hint at the fact that that’s how a lot of people felt. They were literally balancing constantly for this entire time, really, after 1919, on the edge of their own personal catastrophes. It was always unemployment, hyperinflation, trying to get enough food. People were dying of diseases. There’s the Spanish flu. There’s tuberculosis. It’s always something or other. People don’t feel that the system is giving them stability. I don’t think there ever really is a feeling that this can really work long term.

People do, at the slightest whim, think, “Oh, maybe we just need to go back to a system where someone makes the decisions.” The Weimar Republic actually dies in 1930, three years before Hitler comes into power, as a democracy. He takes over a system, I think, that’s already given up on being a democracy, even at that point. As I say, I could talk about this for two days and still be lining up factors. It is complex.

COWEN: The army is interfering in politics quite early and pretty frequently.

HOYER: Yes. They still think that because of the nature of the Prussian system previously, it’s often been said that “Prussia wasn’t a state with an army, but it was an army with a state.” That intrinsic self-confidence, if you want to call it that, of the army, that they are really calling the shots, that doesn’t really go away.

People also often forget that in the First World War, you have the so-called silent dictatorship, which is basically the army running absolutely everything under Hindenburg’s system, from the economy and culture to newspaper output and everything else. Again, that they don’t just suddenly turn that off in 1919. They do try and make their influence heard ongoingly.

Then the young Weimar Republic has to make a pact with the military because they defend them effectively against communists and also right-wing Putschers. They depend on the military in that way as well for security. They do try and build up a new military, but they never go Stalin-style and purge everybody who was there previously. They keep the existing elites largely in place, so they inherit an army that isn’t loyal to them, that’s still loyal to the old system.

I very much enjoyed Katja’s recent book Weimar: Life on the Edge of Catastrophe.

The post My excellent Conversation with Katja Hoyer appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Air Pollution’s Daily Pulse Over the Northeast

7:05 am
3:05 pm
A map of morning nitrogen dioxide shows elevated concentrations of the gas over a region stretching from New York City to Washington, D.C., at 7:05 a.m. on May 18, 2026. A second map of the same area shows much lower concentrations that afternoon.
TEMPO detected high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide during the morning commute at 7:05 a.m. local time on May 18, 2026 (left), along the New York-Washington corridor. The instrument detected lower levels of the gas at 3:05 p.m. (right), after chemical reactions involving nitrogen dioxide had contributed to elevated ozone concentrations in the afternoon.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A map of morning nitrogen dioxide shows elevated concentrations of the gas over a region stretching from New York City to Washington, D.C., at 7:05 a.m. on May 18, 2026. A second map of the same area shows much lower concentrations that afternoon.
TEMPO detected high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide during the morning commute at 7:05 a.m. local time on May 18, 2026 (left), along the New York-Washington corridor. The instrument detected lower levels of the gas at 3:05 p.m. (right), after chemical reactions involving nitrogen dioxide had contributed to elevated ozone concentrations in the afternoon.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A map of morning nitrogen dioxide shows elevated concentrations of the gas over a region stretching from New York City to Washington, D.C., at 7:05 a.m. on May 18, 2026. A second map of the same area shows much lower concentrations that afternoon.
TEMPO detected high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide during the morning commute at 7:05 a.m. local time on May 18, 2026 (left), along the New York-Washington corridor. The instrument detected lower levels of the gas at 3:05 p.m. (right), after chemical reactions involving nitrogen dioxide had contributed to elevated ozone concentrations in the afternoon.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A map of morning nitrogen dioxide shows elevated concentrations of the gas over a region stretching from New York City to Washington, D.C., at 7:05 a.m. on May 18, 2026. A second map of the same area shows much lower concentrations that afternoon.
TEMPO detected high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide during the morning commute at 7:05 a.m. local time on May 18, 2026 (left), along the New York-Washington corridor. The instrument detected lower levels of the gas at 3:05 p.m. (right), after chemical reactions involving nitrogen dioxide had contributed to elevated ozone concentrations in the afternoon.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
7:05 am
3:05 pm
TEMPO detected high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide during the morning commute at 7:05 a.m. local time on May 18, 2026 (left), along the New York-Washington corridor.The instrument detected lower levels of the gas at 3:05 p.m. EDT (right), after chemical reactions involving nitrogen dioxide had contributed to elevated ozone concentrations in the afternoon. Note that the data shown is provisional, and processing methods are still being refined. NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison.

More than 35 million people live along the New York–Washington corridor and breathe the region’s air. While air quality has improved significantly in recent decades, outbreaks of ground-level ozone remain common, particularly in the warm summer months, when the chemical reactions that produce the pollutant accelerate and stagnant air allows ozone to accumulate.

A reminder of this seasonal phenomenon came earlier than usual in 2026, when a mid-May heat wave prompted the New York State Department of Health and the New York Department of Environmental Conservation to issue a health advisory on May 17 over concerns about ozone. The code orange advisory warned young people, older adults, and those working or exercising outdoors to limit activity due to ozone’s respiratory and cardiovascular health impacts.

As expected, ground-based air-quality sensors operated by state and federal agencies showed ozone reaching unhealthy levels for sensitive groups on May 18, something that typically happens several times per year. Meanwhile, NASA’s TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) instrument observed the event from geostationary orbit 22,000 miles (35,000 kilometers) above the equator, a unique vantage point that allows the sensor to collect frequent observations of air pollution.

TEMPO detects nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a gas emitted by burning fuels, particularly by motor vehicles, that contributes to ozone formation. “There’s often a clear and interesting pattern in TEMPO’s nitrogen dioxide data during ozone alert days,” said Hazem Mahmoud, a project scientist at NASA’s Atmospheric Science Data Center at Langley Research Center. “We see high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide during the early morning commute that drop off sharply in the late afternoon as ozone increases.”

The decline occurs as sunlight fuels photochemical reactions involving nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and oxygen that lead to ozone formation. By late afternoon, these reactions deplete much of the available nitrogen dioxide, slowing ozone production until the cycle begins again the next day.

The pair of images above underscores the pattern. The image on the left was acquired at 7:05 a.m. local time when nitrogen dioxide concentrations were high during the morning commute. By 3:05 p.m. (right), most of the nitrogen dioxide had declined substantially, and surface ozone levels were elevated (below). Meanwhile, afternoon sea breezes appear to have transported residual nitrogen dioxide slightly inland and northward.

Sensors on earlier polar-orbiting satellites, such as OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) and TROPOMI (Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument), sampled nitrogen dioxide over New York once per day. After its launch in 2023, TEMPO began providing data every hour during the day, allowing researchers to track the evolution and dispersion of air pollution at much finer time scales. 

“TEMPO is helping fill data gaps between ground stations and allowing us to ask new questions,” Mahmoud said. The mission provides data that can improve not only air quality forecasts during crisis situations, such as wildfires, but also the atmospheric models used to forecast the daily rhythms of urban pollution. Such models help researchers understand how natural factors such as winds, humidity levels, and air temperatures influence pollution plumes over the course of a day.

In a map of the eastern U.S., elevated ozone concentrations appear as a purple patch in an area extending from New York City to Washington, D.C.
TEMPO detected elevated ozone concentrations in an area extending from New York City to Washington, D.C., at 5:05 p.m. on May 18, 2026. Note the map depicts beta data that is not optimized for operational use.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

TEMPO also detects ozone directly, but determining how much of that ozone is near the surface versus higher in the atmosphere can be challenging. Most of Earth’s ozone resides in the stratosphere, well above the troposphere, where people live and breathe. At times, however, stratospheric ozone can be transported downward into the troposphere. During events known as stratospheric intrusions, it can even descend far enough to affect air quality at the surface and add to the ozone produced at ground level.

By combining TEMPO observations with other sources of information, researchers are studying the processes that influence the distribution of ozone vertically in the atmosphere. On May 18, NASA’s ground-based tropospheric lidar network (TOLNet) in New York City recorded high concentrations of ozone near the surface, indicating that TEMPO was detecting mostly surface-level ozone associated with urban emissions and not ozone aloft, said Mahmoud.

However, on May 19, the same sensor observed a layer of ozone descending from above 5 kilometers (3 miles), he added, a clue that some of the ozone TEMPO detected that day may have originated in the stratosphere. “This is the type of information that leads to better air quality forecast models and more accurate alerts,” Mahmoud said. “Alerts can affect tens of millions of people and lead to disruptions in school, sports, and other activities, so it’s essential that they be as accurate as possible.”

On June 6, New York authorities issued another health advisory for ozone. People interested in following the event can access daily near-real-time TEMPO observations of ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and other gases on NASA’s Worldview browser, on an interactive Harvard & Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics browsing tool, and on NASA’s Earthdata portal.   

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using TEMPO data from NASA Earthdata. Story by Adam Voiland.

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What do the AIs think of us?

Asked to answer as a typical human, every cutting-edge model rated us markedly more neurotic, less open, less agreeable and less conscientious than they rated themselves. The gap on Neuroticism alone is 1.69 points on a 5-point scale.

Here is more material of interest.  And this:

Across 31 models from those seven labs they answer the personality tests in unison: high openness, low Dark Triad, Universalism on top, Power dead last in every single model.

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NASA chief defends selection of all-male Artemis 3 crew

Artemis 3 crew members NASA astronaut Randy Bresnik, commander; ESA (European Space Agency) astronaut Luca Parmitano, pilot; and NASA astronauts Frank Rubio, mission specialist, and Andre Douglas, mission specialist, are seen during the Artemis 3 crew announcement event, Tuesday, June 9, 2026, at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas. Image: NASA/John Kraus

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, responding to questions about the agency’s selection of an all-male crew for the Artemis 3 mission, said the astronauts were chosen based solely on their experience, skill sets and availability.

Isaacman wrote on the social media platform X that “I have seen reactions ranging from disappointment to outrage.” One such response on Reddit called the crew announcement “massively upsetting.”

“Women represent 50 percent of the population,” the post read. “They deserve at least one seat on every mission from a government run agency.”

But Isaacman strongly defended the crew selection, saying he had “personally been to space twice with 50 percent female crews. My closest advisors and some of the smartest engineers I know are women. In our latest NASA leadership organization, nearly 50 percent of the center directors and mission directorate leadership are women.

“The last astronaut candidate class selected under this administration was majority female [six women and four men] because they were the best of the best, including one astronaut [Anna Menon] I previously went to space with.”

NASA announced its 2025 Astronaut Candidate Class on Sept. 22, 2025. The 10 candidates, pictured here at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston are: U.S. Army CW3 Ben Bailey, Anna Menon, Rebecca Lawler, Katherine Spies, U.S. Air Force Maj. Cameron Jones, Dr. Lauren Edgar, U.S. Navy Lt. Cmdr. Erin Overcash, Yuri Kubo, Dr. Imelda Muller, and U.S. Air Force Maj. Adam Fuhrmann. Image: NASA/Josh Valcarcel

During an event Tuesday at the Johnson Space Center, NASA revealed the astronauts who had been selected for next year’s Artemis 3 mission, a flight to test rendezvous and docking procedures in low-Earth orbit with moon landers being built by SpaceX and Blue Origin.

The mission will be commanded by Randy Bresnik, 58, veteran of 149 days in space during a shuttle flight and a space station stay. European Space Agency astronaut Luca Parmitano, 49, a veteran of two long-duration ISS stays, will serve as pilot.

Also on board: Andre Douglas, 40, a space rookie with broad engineering experience, and Frank Rubio, 49, who logged a U.S.-record 371 days in space aboard the ISS in 2022-23.

The four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-12 mission emerge from the Neil Armstrong Operations and Checkouts building to greet friends and family before heading out to Space Launch Complex 40 for their flight. Left to right: Roscosmos cosmonaut Andrey Fedyaev, NASA astronaut Jack Hathaway, NASA astronaut Jessica Meir, ESA astronaut Sophie Adenot. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

In an interview that aired on CNN Wednesday, Bresnik said the selection of an all-male crew for Artemis 3 was “certainly not intentional.”

“You can look at our astronaut office and see the wide diversity within the office, whether that’s gender or background or nationality or heritage,” he said. “And certainly, the boss had to pick the crew for this flight that he had available that had the skill sets that he needed.”

NASA currently has about 35 active-duty astronauts. The list includes 15 women but does not yet include the six currently in training to join the astronaut corps.

The Artemis 2 crew, the program’s first to carry astronauts, included Christina Koch, who became the first female to fly around the moon. NASA’s Jessica Meir and ESA’s Sophie Adenot are currently in orbit aboard the International Space Station and Jasmin Moghbeli is in training to command an upcoming Crew Dragon flight to the lab complex. Bresnik said two more yet-to-be-announced women are in training for a downstream flight.

“The office gets what it needs when it needs it, and we’ll certainly have all these other people that you mentioned, you know, female military test pilots or just other female astronauts, that’ll be picking up on the follow-on Artemis missions,” Bresnik said.

NASA astronaut and SpaceX Crew-13 Commander Jessica Watkins is pictured in her pressure suit during a training session at SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California. Image: SpaceX

In any case, the Artemis 3 crew brings a wide variety of skills to what is essentially a flight test in low-Earth orbit.

Bresnik is a former “TOPGUN” graduate and military test pilot while Parmitano flew high-performance jets for the Italian air force. Rubio holds a doctorate in medicine and is a former UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter pilot. Douglas holds three master’s degrees and a Ph.D. in engineering.

Isaacman said the astronaut office “assigns the crew that gives the mission the best chance of meeting its objectives, taking into account many factors, including the background and expertise of the astronauts, such as test pilot experience, development work on specific programs, and availability.”

He added that critics of the Artemis III crew selection “may not be aware of the pipeline of crews already preparing to launch to the space station, or those who have been undergoing lunar-specific training that would be a better fit for a future surface mission.”

Isaacman concluded by saying Bresnik and his crewmates were “experienced, qualified and deserve to be celebrated for the mission they have been assigned, just as the crews that follow will be celebrated when their time comes.”

The WWDC 2026 Keynote and State of the Union on YouTube

Apple’s Developer app lets you download local copies of every session, including the State of the Union, except the keynote. Why this is I don’t know. But if you want a local copy, you can grab it from YouTube.

Speaking of the State of the Union, the full version runs just over an hour, but Apple cut together a 4.5-minute recap. If you haven’t watched the full thing you should at least watch that recap.

 ★ 


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