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Anti-Vaccination Could Hurt Republicans at the Polls

At least two doctors who are former Republican congressmen think so (boldface mine):

If current polling trends hold, Republicans could lose their majorities in both the House and Senate this November. Most pundits attribute this potential blue wave to voters’ frustration with gas prices and the broader cost of living. But another issue is quietly hurting GOP candidates: our party’s often mixed messaging on vaccines…

Voters have certainly noticed — and they’re blaming Republicans. According to a recent KFF poll, more than 60% of voters now disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of vaccine policy. Only 28% of independents approve. Democrats now hold a 16-point advantage on the issue: Forty-one percent of voters trust them more to handle vaccine policy, compared with 25% who trust Republicans…

President Trump has been a strong voice for vaccines, affirming that childhood immunizations work and encouraging parents to vaccinate their children. But he has promoted vaccine misinformation in the past, and in August, he signed an executive order to slim down the childhood vaccine schedule, and at the signing, suggested a link between vaccines and autism that decades of research have ruled out.

Meanwhile, the Department of Health and Human Services has thrown a key vaccine advisory panel into turmoil, threatened government vaccination programs, and downplayed the danger of measles — all at a moment when Americans are looking to their government for clarity…

Our party’s own data warned us that backsliding on vaccines would hurt our prospects. In 2025, the Republican polling firm Fabrizio Ward published a memo finding broad bipartisan support for routine childhood vaccines and warning that undermining them would cost votes.

The numbers are stark. Seventy-four percent of Americans say ensuring broad availability of Food and Drug Administration-approved vaccines should be a priority. Nearly 70% say they would be more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who vows to preserve vaccine access over one who seeks to rescind it. And crucially, more than 50% of voters say they’d be less likely to support a candidate who doesn’t support vaccines, even if they align with that candidate on other issues.

In other words, silence on vaccines is becoming a dealbreaker for voters who would otherwise vote Republican.

For a very long time, Republicans have been able to spout stupid rhetoric in many areas and thereby build out a Coalition of the Stupid, but now that they’re actually turning that rhetoric into action, they are finally starting to suffer for it politically.

Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of assholes.

Links 10/21/26

Links for you. Science:

RFK Jr’s ‘deities of vaccine research’ raided by police in Guinea-Bissau. Police seize doses of hepatitis B vaccine from people at center of dispute over research on African newborns
Pennsylvania issues alert on congenital measles—something US hasn’t seen for decades
Streptococcal mutanobactin mediates interspecies competition with gram-positive bacteria
Wolves Eat More Than Meat. Researchers say the carnivores help sustain their ecosystems by spreading blueberry seeds
Roger Pielke Jr.’s Appallingly Bad Analysis of Billion Dollar Disasters
Targeted termination of scientific grants and minoritised researcher status in a national survey: a cross sectional analysis
NIH sees 7,400 fewer grants during fiscal year 2026 than in previous year

Other:

Elon Musk Is Beyond the Pale
The Native Language of Social Media Is Slurs
I was a Theranos whistleblower. In ‘You Can See Everything,’ Elizabeth Holmes is still lying. An insider’s review of Nathan Fielder’s … documentary?
It’s Evening In America
Trump wants to make Zelenskyy his midterms scapegoat
Welp
Five Takeaways From the D.C. Council’s Big Hearing on New Taxes
How Trump’s FBI Purge Saved Lindsey Graham and James Clyburn From a Bribery Investigation
Abdul El-Sayed Gives a Masterclass in Answering Bad Faith Questions
Alexandria DASH bus budget issues could lead to service cuts (diesel prices…)
How a Massive Chinese Crime Ring Hacked Staples to Steal Millions
Inflation Hits Trump’s Merch Machine
A Window Into The Trump GOP’s Machinery Of Corruption And Bad Faith
How Trump Turned His Golf Empire Into A Billion-Dollar Tax Shelter
The weird rise and spectacular fall of Katie Zacharia
Why No One Wants to Date Tech Bros
Trump kowtowing to Putin: The biggest elephant in the room. Ever. In our history.
Born Every Minute
They Fled Trump’s America. Now They Regret It
Companies rushed in on AI. Now some are pulling back
Snowball
Trump’s Voter Raids Have Begun
DHS Said They Searched Man Who Wiped GrapheneOS Phone for Child Abuse Material. They Lied
Amy Acton’s mother defended husband accused of raping her daughter at 12. Now she’s in a pro-Ramaswamy attack ad.
Better Win a District: Virginia’s Sixth
Democratic super PAC hammers GOP over trans bathroom focus
An ‘empathy gap’ divides Americans ahead of the midterms, says PRRI report
When Musk and Zuck scream “free speech,” we don’t have to listen
Amy Acton’s Mom Claims Candidate Lied About Childhood in Attack Ad — Despite Extensive Record of Abuse (the rightwing is running scared)
Minnesota candidate’s staffer quits over Hitler, antisemitic posts: ‘Curdles my stomach’

TechnoMile Recognized as a 2026 Inc. Power Partner Award Winner

TechnoMile, the leading AI solution that unifies growth, contracts, compliance, and security workflows, has been named a 2026 Inc. Power Partner Awards winner, recognizing the company among the leading B2B […]

The post TechnoMile Recognized as a 2026 Inc. Power Partner Award Winner appeared first on SpaceNews.

Global Satcom Services Revenues to Reach $145 Billion by 2035

Novaspace logo

Paris, France | October 2026 – Global satellite services revenues are forecast to grow 44% to reach $145 billion by 2035, according to the 33rd edition of Novaspace’s Satellite Connectivity […]

The post Global Satcom Services Revenues to Reach $145 Billion by 2035 appeared first on SpaceNews.

Space Nuclear Power Corporation Awarded DARPA Agreement for Ground Test of Autonomous Nuclear Reactor Controller

LOS ALAMOS, N.M. — October 21, 2026 — Space Nuclear Power Corporation (SpaceNukes) announced today that the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has awarded the company an Other Transaction […]

The post Space Nuclear Power Corporation Awarded DARPA Agreement for Ground Test of Autonomous Nuclear Reactor Controller appeared first on SpaceNews.

Modern Principles of Economics!

If you are teaching economics Modern Principles is the book to use! Great and original writing, over one hundred videos, iClicker, Achieve and lots of additional support. Contact Mike Krotine to get an examination copy.

The post Modern Principles of Economics! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Bhutan: the last place

Photo of a boy in a sports jacket, looking thoughtful with his reflection in a dimly lit mirror behind him.

What happened when people in Bhutan, the last country on Earth without television, were allowed to watch it in 1999?

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Other people

A group hug in a shed doorway, with people embracing closely. Blue walls, metal roof and a door are visible.

Disconnection is at the heart of today’s crises. So my husband and I chose a radical and revealing remedy: living communally

- by Elizabeth Oldfield

Read on Aeon

Fraud!!!

The White House wants us to report government fraud! It wants citizens to become journalists! To crack down! To step up! To be friggin’ awesome, bruhs!

It has even set up a dope-ass special page on the White House website!

Here’s the link!

LFG!

And if you’re wondering! Why I’m using so many exclamation marks! It’s because I’m excited! Donald Trump and Co. are tired of fraud! They say there’s so much of it, we need to step up—as a people—and take action!

So I think! To make sure this doesn’t become yet another predictable, “Blame the left for everything!” witch hunt, we need to step up—as a people—and take action!

This is the form as I filled it out!

In all seriously, this is the White House being the 2026 White House—which is using government funds and resources to say, “Look! So much fraud from the Democrats! It’s all reported by the people!” [Except, cough, for the President making $2 billion in his first two years back. And, cough, receiving a jet. And, cough, his son’s wedding being paid for by Russians. Cough, cough]

So I suggest, immediately, everyone take a few moments, go to the site and fill out the form in the manner of what I did above.

Let’s bog these fuckers down.

Because fraud! It’s bad!

October 21, 2026

Everything feels out of whack in the United States.

First of all, the president’s behavior is becoming more and more erratic. Earlier this week, he walked past the open door of his armored car, known as “The Beast” and wandered toward an open field before Secret Service agents redirected him.

And he is losing any filter he used to have. At campaign rallies, he has taken to commenting on how he finds Ohio Republican senator Jon Husted physically attractive. “I looked at his a‑‑, and then I looked at his legs, and my—I said, ‘His a‑‑ is like, it’s like a pile of muscle.’ Then I looked at his legs, and I said, ‘Man, his feet are big.’ Then I looked at his shoulders, and I tapped him on the shoulder, and it actually hurt my hand. It was like a piece of steel. I said, ‘This guy’s a monster.’”

Today he snarled at CNN’s Kaitlan Collins: “You don’t know what you’re talking about. You’re a dummy. You’re a low-IQ person, you’re a dummy, and you work for CNN.”

In the news, Trump’s abandonment of the traditional allies of the United States to embrace Vladimir Putin and Russia remains front and center. Today, videos circulated of Trump’s special envoy to Russia, Steve Witkoff, praising Putin as a “humanitarian” even as the Russian military continues to bombard Ukrainian civilians, this week killing a baby in a stroller at a public park.

Today, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton told Kara Swisher: “I continue to believe that Putin has things on Trump. I continue to believe that he is holding photos, videos, whatever it might be.” Clinton reiterated that Trump “is a willing Putin puppet to help Putin. Putin’s not going to stop with Ukraine…. I guess Trump has this idea that he wants to divide the world,” Clinton said. “He gets the Western Hemisphere, Putin gets Russia and Europe, and Xi Jinping gets the rest of the world.”

Meanwhile, Trump claims he had nothing to do with the slowing of Starlink over Ukraine, telling a reporter: “I wasn’t involved.” When asked if Elon Musk ordered it, Trump responded: “I don’t know who did it, but I was not involved.”

Congress members, including Republicans, have vowed to hold whoever was responsible for the cuts accountable. Representative Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) said on Monday that those limiting Starshield “will be fully investigated and will be held fully accountable.” He said Congress would investigate and mete out “immediate harsh and punitive budget cuts to any responsible agency or agency head.”

Musk is not taking that threat calmly. In response to a report by Calen Razor in Politico that Democrats intend to investigate Musk’s role in cutting Ukraine’s access to Starlink communications networks, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to Russian attacks, Musk posted on social media: “Live by the sword, die by the sword. Those who pick fights with me should understand that I will find out who is really pulling the strings and come for them, not just their puppets …”

His was a shocking threat against members of Congress, but the move of Europeans and Canadians to develop their own satellite communications systems given the dangers of relying on Starlink seems to be worrying Musk. If Congress also moves the United States away from his contracts, he could be in real trouble. As Douglas P. McCormick noted in Fortune last June, Musk’s trillion-dollar fortune is not real. Almost all of his net worth is unrealized equity in companies he runs. His wealth is simply the market’s estimate of the worth of his promises to deliver in the future, and those promises depend on government contracts.

Americans are beginning to see the costs of Trumpism more generally.

As Paul Krugman noted in his newsletter this morning, twelve million Americans have lost healthcare coverage under Trump, and those who still have it have seen the cost of their premiums rise sharply. The situation will get worse in the future, since when they wrote their One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Republicans put the worst of their cuts off until after the midterms.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reports that enrollment in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) fell by more than 5 million people, or nearly 13%, between July 2025, when the Republicans enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and June 2026. Nearly half of those no longer receiving benefits are children. Starting this month, more of the costs of SNAP will fall to states. The amount of their payment will be based on their error rates, causing them to err on the side of denying benefits and cut costs, leading even more to lose benefits in the future. Some states may have to withdraw from SNAP altogether.

In The Atlantic today, David Frum wrote that the bill for Trumpism is coming due. Although Trump promised in his first term to eliminate the national debt and in his second to balance the budget, maybe even financing a $2,000 check for every American taxpayer, the budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended on September 30 clocked in at about $2 trillion, about $160 billion more than it was during former president Biden’s last year as president. Next year’s deficit will likely be even greater.

How we got to this point, Frum reminds us, is that the Republicans’ 2025 extension of their 2017 tax cuts will reduce government revenues by $4.5 trillion over the next ten years. Their cuts to Medicaid and SNAP reduced spending by $1.1 trillion. That leaves a growing deficit that climbs to more than $4 trillion as the cost of servicing the debt grows.

Economist Justin Wolfers explained: “Washington has discovered a brilliant financial strategy. Cut benefits for people who need them, cut taxes for people who don’t, and borrow the difference from people who aren’t old enough to vote.”

Those numbers, Frum notes, don’t include the cost of Trump’s war on Iran. The administration acknowledges that fuel and munitions for that war have cost about $45 billion, but the real costs run far higher with the destruction, for example, of U.S. bases in the Middle East. The Department of Defense has asked for an additional $200 billion for the war, and Trump has asked for $1.5 trillion to fund the military in 2027, which Frum notes is up 44% from before the war on Iran.

In order to stay in power, Republicans are peddling what Jesse Watters of the Fox News Channel recently called “fear porn.” Matt Gertz of Media Matters quoted Watters’s explanation: to engage non-MAGA voters, he said: “You have to say, these people are going to take your healthcare, they’re going to let in the Third World, they’re going to jack up your taxes, and that’s what’s going to get people to come out to vote. You have to say, these people are scary and dangerous, you know what we’re all about. And that’s really a choice.”

In September, Watters warned that “the Democrat party and its communist base are running against America” and “want to shatter the pillars of Western civilization.” He continued his dark fantasy: “They want to abolish the Senate, police, ICE, and of course the border. Some of them are even calling for reparations and rent control. Others have a little bit of a problem with whites, and a majority of Democrats don’t prefer capitalism. It’s like we’re fighting the Cold War here in our own country.”

Host Sean Hannity told viewers: “We can vote to build on the successes of President Trump, his first two years in office, or you can shred your Constitution, allow our country to be taken hostage by this new radicalized leftist democratic socialist communist movement and their far-left extremist candidates.” He called Democrats “completely insane.”

A company formed last month in Wyoming has been circulating in Texas phony leaflets and text messages pretending to be from a trans rights group. Addressed to the “student” of the household, the flyers claim to be a resource guide for transgender and LGBTQ+ youth. The flyers are deliberately inflammatory, purporting to give a roadmap to children for how to separate from their parents and replace them with other adults or organizations.

Right-wing groups are sharing the mailers and linking them to Democrats. A Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives called them “disgusting and evil” on social media and posted further: “The radical left is trying to brainwash Texan children and unravel the basic framework of our society.”

In Ohio, Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy released what the editor of the Cleveland Plain Dealer called “the most vile political ad in Ohio history.” It features the biological mother of his opponent, Dr. Amy Acton, saying Acton is a liar for saying she lived in a tent as a child. In the ad, the woman tells Ohioans not to “let her become your governor.”

Acton, 60, has not seen her biological mother since she was 12, when she and her brother were removed from the woman’s home after a grand jury indicted the woman’s second husband for raping Acton. The woman helped her husband escape custody and avoid trial until he died. Charles Hilu of the National Review reported that court records confirm Acton’s history, and noted that the impoverished family did, in fact, spend a winter living in a tent.

Acton’s brother replied to the ad, saying both of them had been abused, but she had received the worst of it as she tried to protect him. “Shame on Vivek,” he said.

While Vice President J.D. Vance defended Ramaswamy’s ad, others were appalled at his attempt to use her childhood trauma against her.

The Columbus Dispatch endorsed Amy Acton and called the ad “revolting.” MK Pritzker, the wife of Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker, donated $500,000 to Acton, saying: “Bad men gain power when we refuse to stand up and fight.”

New Jersey’s Republican former governor Chris Christie told Karen Tumulty and Dan Merica of the Washington Post: “The question for all Republicans is whether this type of attitude is what we want leading our party going forward. For the last decade, our party has been infected by a corrupted moral center. Vance’s acceptance of this campaign ad only breathes life into the disease that we should be seeking to cure.”

Today Ariana Baio of the Guardian reported that Neil Bush, the brother of President George W. Bush, has voted for Democrat James Talarico rather than Texas attorney general Ken Paxton to be the next U.S. senator from Texas. Bush explained: “I have been a Republican for most of my life, and I still believe deeply in many traditional Republican principles. But character matters more than party affiliation. Our democracy depends on leaders who respect our institutions, tell the truth, accept accountability, and seek to unite rather than divide.”

—

Notes:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6161958-trump-on-remarks-about-gop-senators-a-this-guys-a-monster/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/20/politics/starshield-ukraine-elon-musk

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/10/20/congress/dem-gavels-elon-musk-01127662

https://www.ft.com/content/555bbf91-4c38-43ce-94b6-90f7fc04e82c?syn-25a6b1a6=1

https://censor.net/en/news/4029237/europe-is-creating-an-alternative-to-starlink-financial-times

https://fortune.com/2026/06/23/elon-musk-trillionaire-paper-wealth-spacex-tesla-exposed-failure/

Paul Krugman
Trump is Destroying Americans’ Healthcare
On the eve of the midterm election, American families are feeling financially stressed As the chart above shows, the percentage of families who say that their financial situation is good has plunged. For the first time since the post-Covid inflation of 2022, it has fallen below the percentage who say that their financial situation is bad…
Read more

https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snap-tracker-people-are-losing-food-assistance-as-the-harmful-2025

https://www.cbpp.org/blog/snap-participation-has-dropped-to-its-lowest-point-in-17-years-even-though-economic-conditions

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/10/trump-budget-deficit-debt/689085/

https://abcnews.com/Politics/photos-show-extensive-damage-us-middle-east-bases/story?id=136507770

https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/fox-news-peddling-election-fear-porn-about-democrats-rescue-republicans

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/20/texas-transgender-pamphlets-tent-student-union/

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2026/10/vivek-ramaswamy-is-behind-the-most-vile-political-ad-in-ohio-history-today-in-ohio.html

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/amy-actons-mom-claims-candidate-lied-about-childhood-in-attack-ad-despite-extensive-record-of-abuse/

https://www.dispatch.com/story/opinion/endorsements/2026/10/21/amy-acton-mother-attack-ad-vivek-ramaswamy-ohio-governor-2026-columbus-dispatch-endorsement/92268822007/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/21/ohio-attack-ad-backfires-vivek-ramaswamy-doubles-down/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/21/neil-bush-votes-james-talarico

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JustinWolfers/status/2112263595425730842

RepBrianFitz/status/2112145932049412375

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vincedmonroy.bsky.social/post/3myg45z5kas2w

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The White House Betrays Ukraine

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Market design and water conservation in the the Great Salt Lake

Silvia Console Battilana, who co-founded Auctionomics along with Paul Milgrom, writes in Forbes about the prospects for market design efforts to help conserve Utah's Great Salt Lake. 

How Market Design Could Help Save Utah’s Great Salt Lake by 
By Silvia Console Battilana

 "the Great Salt Lake is drying up.

"To save the lake while protecting water users, business leaders can adopt a little-known but powerful economic tool: market design. When water levels drop, the consequences immediately hit commercial supply chains and local commerce. Market-based incentives give businesses a way to reward upstream water conservation, bringing more water to the lake without hurting regional growth. The invisible hand of the market could identify the least expensive conservation, compensate participating water users and restore the Great Salt Lake.

...

"The shrinking of the Great Salt Lake has many causes, and there is no silver-bullet fix. But any solution to refill the lake will likely involve conservation within Utah. Seventy-one percent of the water diverted from the lake’s basin is allocated to agriculture. If those commercial users could make more efficient use of water, more would reach the lake.

The catch is that many conservation practices, like water-friendly infrastructure and precision irrigation, are expensive. Under Utah’s traditional “use-it-or-lose-it” water rights system, users have little financial reason to conserve. Without modern economic incentives, asking businesses and farms to voluntarily cut back simply isn’t realistic.

Even if water users could be forced to cut back, it’s not clear who should cut back, or by how much. The costs of water conservation aren’t the same across users, and they can be very hard to estimate.

Market design can address both of these challenges. Crucially, markets don’t force particular actions or behaviors. Instead, well-designed markets create an incentive for farms and communities to cut back on water and be rewarded for their efforts. Anyone who can cost-effectively reduce consumption will do so, while others aren’t compelled to conserve if it would be too expensive.

Market Design Works
Even when the stakes are high and a lot stands in the way, intentionally designed markets can successfully align self-interest with the public good.

Further, market design can be used to align incentives even when money isn’t exchanged: it has been used for organ donation exchanges and food banks. Harnessing the invisible hand of the market to align incentives in pursuit of a common goal is an effective tool for difficult problems."



 

 

A simple point about the intertemporal regulation of AI

At some point AI will be more regulated than it is today.  Furthermore, I believe that most parts of the American economy, once they are regulated, end up overregulated.

Thus it is likely that the AI sector will, at some point, end up overregulated.

Given that reality, perhaps the AI sector should be underregulated today.  After all, overregulation will have decades, maybe centuries, to catch up and even the ledger.

Many regulatory issues can be considered within this framework.  You can think that AI is “underregulated today”, in the static sense of that term, and still not favor additional regulation right now.  You might prefer to keep it underregulated for some while to come.

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Do mass shootings in universities lead to permanent effects?

Using a stacked difference-in-differences design covering shootings between 1990 and 2025, I compare cohorts at affected universities before and after the shooting with cohorts at matched control universities. I find no detectable effects on time to degree, but undergraduates enrolled at the time of the shooting are 4.2% less likely to pursue further studies. Those who do continue shift toward health: the share of exposed cohorts who later enroll in a health degree rises by 1.3 percentage points (8.8%), and this effect persists among cohorts who enroll after the shooting. Effects on students present during the shooting are consistent with a response to trauma; for later cohorts, I find evidence of sorting, as master’s students with prior healthcare experience become more likely to enroll in affected universities. These results suggest that mass shootings leave institutional and cultural legacies that outlast the students who witnessed them.

That is from the job market paper of María Medellín-Esguerra, who is currently on the job market from Brown University.

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Panic in the Final Stretch

One interesting dimension of the “Wedgewood Polls” story I discussed last night is that Republican leaders are latching on to it as evidence that all the polls are fake or at least wrong. Normally you might see this as part of election denial or setting the stage for questioning results. Maybe it’s some of that. But this looks much more like trying to prevent the bottom from falling out in an already bad situation. If your core partisans think the election is already lost a chunk of them just won’t show up to vote at all. And that’s how you can take a bad election night and turn it into a disaster.

Here’s a tweet from this afternoon from House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) …

As I’ve argued in a number of posts, polls are no more than indicative for all the reasons we know. But the actions of the parties can be more convincing, especially in the last couple weeks. Late this afternoon the White House announced that President Trump will be going to Mississippi to hold a rally on Monday. There is no way that happens if Republicans don’t think there’s a real chance that Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) could lose. That doesn’t mean she will lose. I’m not predicting and I don’t think she’ll lose. But they think it’s possible. So it must be close.

It’s important to understand the calculus behind a decision like this. You depress the morale of your partisans when you do something like this just as it would for Democrats to see a Democratic president holding last week of the campaign rallies in Massachusetts or Maryland. (It’s the same demoralization you’re trying to prevent when you tell partisans they shouldn’t believe the polls.) But you decide that you’ve just got to do it because the risk of losing is too high. Tonight Trump is holding a rally for Sen. Darline Nordone Graham in South Carolina and all the same logic applies there. (Trump won South Carolina by 18 points in 2024 and Mississippi by 25 points.) As you’d expect, money from both parties is following Trump to these states.

While all this is happening we still seem to have very close races in Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and other states. Just as I was writing, Fox released a poll showing Texas tied at 49% a piece. That’s not meaningfully different from recent 2 point margins for Talarico. But it’s a reminder that while we’re talking about seats that only move in a historic tsunami, a lot of the states that get Democrats to 51 seats are still razor close. Different states have different dynamics. Candidate quality matters. But it certainly looks like the map is expanding rapidly. And we see that most clearly not from what anyone is saying or from the public polls but from what campaigns and party committees are doing — and where they’re sending their top people.

New Entrant Pollster Was Publishing All Fake Polls

A crazy, crazy story unfolding tonight in the online virtual terrain of political social media and poll-watching. It’s late. But I will give you the bare outline. Seemingly out of the blue earlier this evening an outfit called “Wedgewood Polling” put out a press release stating that all but one of their polls had been fake and that the fakery was all part of a “social experiment” to test how easy it would be to produce fake polls that got aggregated on the big aggregation sites and made their way into news stories. If you’re thinking, wait, didn’t I hear something like this last summer? Yes, you did. There was a smaller-scale version of this, with the same “social experiment” rationale back in August. “Wedgewood,” though, released a lot of polls, in a number of high profile races, not just two or three of them. And there’s at least an argument that they meaningfully impacted some Democratic primary races. They certainly helped shape some campaign narratives. They had appeared to be the only independent poll of the Mississippi Senate race and the only one at all since August.

But then it got weirder.

G. Elliott Morris of FiftyPlusOne announced that his team had been investigating Wedgewood, with some pretty complex and sophisticated sleuthing, and were about to report that Wedgewood’s polls were likely fake. That triggered the press release. Here’s their story, with the addition of more reporting after the press release confirmed the fakery from “Wedgewood” itself. Definitely read the FiftyPlusOne piece I just linked. It’s fascinating sleuthing. And they deserve a lot of credit for smoking these guys out.

According to the Wedgewood press release at least, all the polls were fake but one they did in Nebraska and which they raised money for online through a GoFundMe account. Maybe. It also occurs to me that they may well now be saying that one was real because raising money like that for a fake poll could probably yield a wire fraud charge. The rest of it is deeply wrong. But it’s not clear how it would be illegal. Raising money for a fraudulent purpose is fraud. That’s a real crime.

Details and online sleuthing are ongoing. But it appears that this was either an effort to game betting sites or possibly an effort to boost DSA/prog candidates by a GOP political operative in Florida, though it’s possible that that Republican was working with someone coming from the left as well. Details are just coming out in dribs and drabs. So treat all these aims and theories about why this happened as tentative. My own hunch is that there was probably some political motive and they also decided to make some money on Kalshi as long as they were at it.

All we can say with certainty at this point is that a semi-sorta-prominent new entrant pollster was publishing fake polls. They had at least some impact. And that it definitely wasn’t a “social experiment,” above and beyond that whole idea being absurd.

★ The iPhone Duo

The very nature of the iPhone Duo raises numerous obvious questions about what it’s like to use. Does it not feel thick and heavy, awkward both to pocket and unpocket? Doesn’t the outer (cover) screen feel small and cramped, with an unfamiliar squat-rather-than-tall layout for UI controls in every app you use? Isn’t it weird that when you open it up to use the inner screen, that all the hardware buttons on the edges of the device are in the “wrong” places for a tablet? For anyone who’s gotten used to Face ID over the last decade, is it not frustrating to go back to Touch ID? And what about third-party apps that haven’t been updated to support the Duo’s novel displays — do they not suck to use?

Clearly, the point of a Duo review is to answer these questions, which really boil down to one question: How did Apple solve these problems?

The answer is: They didn’t.

All of these problems are real, and each of them detracts from the experience of using the Duo. Some of them have been mitigated through thoughtful design and clever engineering. Some of them might be solved in future iterations of the device. Some of them, though, I believe are endemic to the very idea of a foldable, and cannot be solved.

The Duo name is perfect. It truly is like having two devices in one. The outer device is, by far, the worst iPhone Apple has ever made. It’s a miserable fat little thing. The inner device is a splendid, joyful, beautiful tablet, with a UI that out-iPads the iPad. For me, by far, it’s my favorite tablet experience ever. I prefer it to any iPad or Kindle-like reader I’ve ever used.

So I’ll cut to the chase. The decision of whether you might want to buy a Duo is not easy, because only one of its two selves is good. You might be delighted, despite its clear compromises, if what you value most is a pocketable small tablet and are ambivalent about your iPhone. You might be endlessly frustrated if you love your iPhone, and use it extensively, often for quick interactions throughout the day, every day.

More Than Meets the Eye

I was a kid when Transformers hit the toy market. I had a few — every boy my age did — but I was more of a GI Joe kid. It always bothered me that, as toys, Transformers were clearly compromised in both states. Folded up, they weren’t good cars / trucks / fighter jets. They had obvious seams and folds. In the cartoons — and the subsequent live action films decades later — the Transformers’ disguised states are seamless. In real life with the actual toys, the disguised states were about as convincing as a pair of Groucho glasses. A regular toy car looked like a real car, and stayed together no matter how hard you played with it. A Transformer car never quite looked like a real car and would come apart when played with. Unfolded, they looked like robots, yes, but they had obvious compromises. And it was kind of a pain folding them back into vehicles. My recollection is that we played with them a lot more as unfolded robots than as folded vehicles.

And that’s what they were. They weren’t vehicles that pretended to be robots. They were robots in disguise. The Duo isn’t really a phone. It’s a tablet in disguise. And in the same way that a true toy car was a better toy car than a folded-up Transformer-as-car could ever be, the Duo-as-phone is just not as good a phone as any regular iPhone. Honestly it’s not even close.

Consider if you could snap the Duo in half, leaving the smaller outer display as a standalone iPhone. Would anyone want an iPhone this shape and size? I think the answer is that zero people would want this. The iPhone Mini, back in 2020 and 2021 with the iPhone 12/13 generations, proved not to be popular enough for Apple to keep around. The iPhone Minis were a way better shape than the outer Duo. There’s a reason why the iPhone Air is not shaped like half a Duo — because the Duo shape stinks as an iPhone. And that’s only considering the hypothetical of a thin lightweight Duo snapped in half. In real life, with the actual Duo, when you use it folded up the device is twice as thick and twice as heavy. These Transformer watches were a fun way to smuggle a toy robot into school, but they were crummy watches. The iPhone Duo is a fun way to fit an entire iPad Mini–sized tablet into your pocket, but it’s a cumbersome phone.

It does not go into or out of my jeans pocket smoothly. Folded up it never stops feeling heavy. It is heavy, compared to other iPhones:

iPhoneWeight
Duo254g
18 Pro Max249g
18 Pro211g
17177g
Air165g

It’s technically only negligibly heavier than an 18 Pro Max, but because it has so much less surface area, it feels far more dense. If it did not unfold, no one would buy this.

But, of course, it does unfold. That’s the entire point. Unfolded, it not only no longer feels heavy, it feels featherweight light. It’s uncanny. An open iPhone Duo has a 7.6-inch display and the physical dimensions are 4.6⁠ ⁠×⁠ ⁠6.5 inches. An A17 Pro iPad Mini (the current model, but supposedly not for long) has an 8.3-inch display, measures 5.3⁠ ⁠×⁠ ⁠7.7 inches, and weighs 297g (that’s the cellular model’s weight, which is only fair). The iPad Mini has a slightly bigger screen but it’s heavier. In hand, I prefer the unfolded Duo over the iPad Mini as a tablet, in every single regard other than hardware button placement. (More on that below.)

You simply cannot have your cake and eat it too. The Duo allows you to take what is, in several ways, the best tablet Apple has ever made — and thus, the best tablet any company has ever made — fold it in half, and put it in your pocket to carry everywhere. While folded in half, you can use it as an entirely functional iPhone, but it’s by far the worst iPhone experience ever — frustrating, ungainly, and uncomfortable.

Using the Duo Closed, With the Outer Display

Ever since it was unveiled there’s been idle speculation that, while folded, the Duo’s design is biased against left-handed users. First, because the Touch ID side button is on the right. Second, because the Duo variant of iOS moves things like application toolbars and the home screen Dock to the right.

I am right-handed, but I’m a little bit on the ambidextrous spectrum. For example, I switched to using my mouse with my left hand around 1995, when I developed RSI in my right wrist, and I’ve used my mouse left-handed ever since. (But I use a MacBook trackpad with my right thumb.) I can shoot a basketball from close range with my left hand. So going into my Duo review, I thought I’d try to use my Duo as a pretend lefty. Turns out I didn’t have to pretend. I never realized this, but I naturally use my iPhone left-handed quite a bit throughout the day. For example, while brushing my teeth. I keep my iPhone in my right front pants pocket, but I often pick it up off my desk or kitchen counter and use it left-handed.

The Duo is not comfortable left-handed. The problem isn’t the Touch ID side button — I fixed that by registering my left index and middle fingers with the Touch ID sensor. The problem isn’t right-side bias for toolbars and the Dock in iOS Duo.1 That’s not great for left-handed use, but the truth is there’s a reachability problem no matter which single hand you try holding the Duo in. It’s better to hold it in your right hand than left, reachability-wise, but fundamentally it’s so wide that it’s a two-handed device even when being used folded.

No, the problem with holding the Duo in your left hand alone is that the bottom left corner of its D-shaped frame digs into your palm. When you hold it in your right hand, it’s a nice round corner in the meat of your thumb’s base. In your left, it’s a crisp sharp corner, and it doesn’t feel good.

When using the small outer display, everything on screen feels cramped. I don’t even like the home screen. Moving the Dock to the right side breaks 19 years of spatial memory for me.2 I keep reaching for Messages, Notes, and Safari down at the bottom of my screen, when now they’re over on the right. And they look weird too, because they’re smaller icons than the others on the home screen. Ostensibly the Dock is for your four most-used apps, but now they’re the smallest icons on your home screen? What sense does that make?

Screenshot of my iPhone Duo home screen. The apps in the Dock, which is positioned on the right, are noticeably smaller than the regular app icons.

It’s such a little thing (no pun intended, I swear), but it exemplifies how many compromises Apple had to make for this small squat display.

Next, consider this screenshot from NetNewsWire:

Screenshot of NetNewsWire on the iPhone Duo outer screen. Its toolbar buttons are all on the right edge of the screen, including the “❮” back button.

What gets me here is the chevron “❮” back button being on the right. The iPhone’s back buttons have always been at the top left of the screen because iOS has always used a left-to-right column-view inspired spatial hierarchy. Craig Federighi just explained this spatial metaphor beautifully in a short YouTube interview a month ago. This metaphor is foundational to the iPhone experience. The back button is on the left because you go back to the left. Putting a button that takes you to the left on the right side of the screen just feels wrong. I think if I used an iPhone Duo every day for the next year (please no) I would still think this felt unnatural. It’s like having a turn signal stalk in your car that you move in the opposite direction that you turn the wheel. Now, it’s true that you can swipe from the left side of the screen to go back. You don’t have to use the “❮” button. But that button is there, in every single iPhone app that presents content in a hierarchy. And it’s always on the wrong side of the screen (unless you’re using an app on the left side of split screen multitasking — see below).

Here’s another example. Unforgetful is Marco Arment’s new reminders app. I like it a lot, and have been using it extensively since the summer. It’s properly updated to support the Duo UI layout. Here’s what it looks like when you’re creating a new task, normally:

Screenshot of Unforgetful’s task creation screen on an iPhone Duo. On the right is a toolbar with two buttons, “✕” and “✓”, which stand for Close and Done.

But here’s what I saw over the weekend, when I was out running a Vonnegut errand, listening to The Vergecast:

Similar screenshot to the previous one, but this time there is a Live Activity in the corner, and instead of two buttons,  “✕” and “✓”, there is only one button: “···”.

I spent almost an entire minute trying to figure out how to save this task. I was about to text Arment with a bug report, that new tasks were unsaveable on the Duo, when I realized what happened. Because I had a Live Activity showing for the podcast I was listening to (in Arment’s Overcast, natch), the system’s time and circular status indicator were pushed down, reducing Unforgetful’s toolbar area, which meant the two buttons, “✕” and “✓” (for Close and Done, respectively), were collapsed into a single “···” overflow button. Tapping the dot-dot-dot button reveals them:

Screenshot showing the menu after tapping “···”, which shows two menu items: “✕ Close” and “✓ Done”.

So the outer Duo display is so cramped when the keyboard is on screen that with a Live Activity showing, there is no longer room for a single pair of toolbar buttons. That turns a lot of one-tap actions into two-tap actions. And initially at least, it’s confusing. The whole point of Unforgetful is that it is not a complicated app. It really took me a minute to figure out that the Done button had moved into the “···” overflow menu.

One more examination of screen real estate, this time, with Messages, with the on-screen keyboard open. How much of the current conversation can you see?

Screenshot comparison of a conversation thread in Messages, comparing the amount of conversation visible on screen with the keyboard open on (1) Duo inner display, vertical; (2) Duo inner display, horizontal; (3) Duo outer display; and (4) an iPhone 18 Pro. Only the Duo inner display vertical orientation and iPhone 18 Pro show more than one previous text bubble.

The Duo outer display has only a smidgeon of real estate available for showing previous messages. It’s a bit like using an ancient BlackBerry. The Duo inner display in horizontal mode doesn’t show much more, but all you need to do to see more is rotate the device (which makes it easier for thumb-typing anyway).

Using the Duo Open, With the Inner Display

Once the Duo is unfolded and unlocked (more on that below), it’s a terrific experience. I absolutely love the nano-texture finish. I love how it looks, and I love how it feels.

At the outset of this review, I opened with a list of obvious problems for any foldable device. I omitted the one vexing problem that Apple has solved: annoyance at a visible crease. They solved it by applying this nano-texture finish (which apparently is an easily replaceable surface layer). But it’s not like this is a trade-off that makes the display look bad or feel weird. I’d love a display that looks and feels like this on my non-foldable iPhone 18 Pro. No glare, even in sunlight. It’s amazing. There’s no accounting for taste — some people love glossy reflective displays that draw glare from any and all light sources. Not me.

No foldable phone on the market had a matte inner display until the Duo. I suspect most of them will next year, and by 2028 all of them will.

I mentioned above how close the open Duo is to the size and weight of an iPad Mini (a little smaller in size, but 15 percent lighter in weight). It just feels like a great little tablet, and this general size class has always been great for reading. Most Kindles and other e-ink readers are about this same size. I love reading on the Duo inner screen, vertically.

The Duo is great horizontally too. One obvious use case is video. Watching video, it’s easy to forget it’s an iPhone, not an iPad. Here’s as good a place as any to mention that the Duo’s speakers are great. Loud and separated. It produces surprisingly good sound for such a thin device.

Held horizontally, the iPhone Duo supports side-by-side multitasking with two apps. The user interface for this feature is brilliant. It puts every idea Apple has tried on iPadOS for multitasking to shame.

From 2010 to 2015, the iPad behaved like a big iPhone, showing only one app at a time on screen. This was limiting, yes, but delightfully simple and obvious. In 2015 with iOS 9 (this was before Apple renamed the iPad’s variant of iOS to “iPadOS”), Apple introduced both Slide Over and Split View. Both of them stunk. They stunk so bad that if you gave them a ride, you’d have to sell your car afterward. They were confusing and unintuitive. Slide Over in particular was often invoked accidentally and users couldn’t figure out how to get rid of it.

Even the newest iPads of the time (iPad Air 2, iPad Mini 4) still had Home buttons — the all-screen design without a Home button wouldn’t arrive until the iPhone X debuted in 2017, and it didn’t arrive for iPads until the late 2018 iPads Pro. The Home button was the key to all iOS interaction at the time. To launch an app, you tapped its icon on your home screen. To go back to your home screen, you clicked the Home button. You double-clicked the Home to enter the app switcher. If you think about it, you can see how the Home-button-centric iPad hardware was incompatible with the idea of split-screen multitasking. Once you have two apps on screen at the same time, how can you control them with just one clickable Home button? What if you had, say, Notes on the left and Safari on the right, and you wanted to close Notes and replace it with Mail, while keeping Safari open on the right? How could the system know which one you wanted to close when you clicked the one Home button? The answer is it couldn’t. So Apple devised all sorts of other convoluted ways to manage this. I don’t even remember how it worked except that it was confusing and frustrating. Re-reading this old iPad developer documentation makes it seem even more unintuitive than I remember.

I was about to quip that whoever at Apple designed and approved of these multitasking UIs set the entire iPad platform back by a decade. Then I realized that, actually, it was more than a decade. The iPhone Duo is debuting 11 years after iOS 9’s terrible iPad multitasking, and only now has Apple designed and implemented a split-screen multitasking interface that is actually good. Split screen on the Duo is intuitive, natural, useful, and mostly obvious. In addition to all those accolades regarding how you purposely invoke and use it, it also is an interface that you seem unlikely ever to get into accidentally. Comparing the multitasking UIs on the Duo to the iPad is like comparing the Mac to Windows — one is insanely great, the other a dog wearing a necktie pretending to be a person. Apple should throw out iPadOS’s multitasking interface and switch to this one. Honestly I’d prefer if they just threw out iPadOS and went back to running iOS — this new version of iOS created for the Duo — on iPads. The Duo flavor of iOS is a better tablet OS than iPadOS, Apple’s dedicated tablet OS.

On the Duo, split screen is only available when the device is horizontal. It’s always split 50-50. Each side of the screen gets an app that is basically the size of an app open on the outer display. Elegant. To move an app into split view, you drag the home indicator up from the bottom of the screen — the same gesture that takes you back to the home screen. But instead of letting go, you keep dragging. You get this:

Entering split screen mode on iPhone Duo, dragging the Apple Notes app. There are drop-target shelves on the far left and right edges.

Those shelves on the left and right are drop targets. Drag and drop the current app to either side to put it there and enter split screen. The other side of the display just shows you a single-screen home screen:

Split screen mode on the Duo. On the right is Apple Notes. On the left is my home screen, ready to open another app.

To open an app on that second screen, you just tap it. There is no step 2. Once you enter split screen mode, it’s like having two closed Duos side-by-side, except the left-side one is a reverse D shape. When the left side is open you can see that the Duo toolbar/Dock bias is not “put it on the right side”. It’s “put it on the outer side”. It just so happens that on the outer display, the right side is the outer side (with rounded corners, away from the spine). Open a second app, and that app’s toolbar will go on the left, if the app is on the left:

Split screen with Safari on the left (open to Six Colors), and Apple Notes on the right, in multitasking switcher mode.

Each side of split screen acts like its own iPhone Duo. Drag up from the bottom of a side and you can go back to the home screen on that side. Or, as shown above, you can enter the multitasking switcher interface on that side — and it’s smart enough not to show you the app that is already open on the other side. Drag up from the bottom center and you return to the full-screen home screen or full-screen app switcher. Whatever you think ought to work, probably works. That’s intuitive design.

There is more to explore and think about here. These are not “windows”. But you can open the same app on both sides, like to show two Safari pages side-by-side. What this split screen UI gets fundamentally right is that it works exactly like using the iPhone for one-app-at-a-time launching and switching. The iPad’s original split-screen sin was trying to implement multiple apps on screen at the same time when the iPad still used a hardware Home button. With the modern iOS UI, where the physical Home button has been replaced by virtual on-screen home indicator bars, you can go from one home indicator (when there’s only one full-screen app) to three: one for the app on the left, one for the app on the right, and a third in the center to control them both as a pair. It’s so brilliant that most users won’t notice that there’s anything clever about the design at all. They’ll just use it. That’s the highest praise for an interaction design like this. It seems so obvious that it doesn’t seem designed at all.

Ironically, because iPhone Duo is not called an “iPad”, it gets to be what the iPad should’ve been all along.

The biggest problem I have with using the Duo on the inner display is an incorrect intuition that, after a full week of use, I am only now starting to break. What do you do when you’re done with a book for now? You close it. So what do I do when I’m done using the iPhone Duo, unfolded, before putting it in my pocket? I close it. But that doesn’t lock the Duo. It just switches to the outer display. I feel like I’ve done this a hundred times in the last week. I close it, thinking that I’ve locked it, and I put it away. But it’s still open. It eventually locks — perhaps sometimes quicker than you think. (iPhones have long used a bit of machine learning to try to detect when they’ve been pocketed or pursed while unlocked, and lock themselves before the normal auto-lock timeout.) Nothing bad has happened from doing this. But I’ve opened it up to some odd things on screen. This is not a complaint about Apple’s design, because when you want to switch from using the inner display to the outer display, you should be able to just close it. The iPhone Duo can’t read your mind. But I wish it could read my mind.

Touch ID and Authentication

The lack of Face ID on the iPhone Duo is an endless unceasing frustration. I’ll just farm this section out to what I wrote back on September 15, days after the Duo was announced, in my thoughts and observations column on Apple’s event announcements:

  • The lack of Face ID is a serious sad-trombone bummer, and in my opinion could sink the first-generation model. Side-button Touch ID is OK, but OK is not good, and even good is not insanely great. Face ID is insanely great. For whatever reason, the only iPads with Face ID are the iPad Pro models. Every time I review an iPad Air or iPad Mini, my biggest gripe is the lack of Face ID. I complained about it reviewing the iPad Air in 2022 and the iPad Mini in 2021, and in the five years since then my annoyance has only grown. With Face ID, so long as you’re looking at the screen as you unlock the device, it’s like not having it locked at all. It just unlocks, seemingly automatically. With Touch ID you must think about putting one of your registered fingers on the button every single time you unlock it. It never ever feels automatic. I feel quite certain Apple tried to fit a Face ID sensor on the outer Duo display and could not make the engineering work.

  • I’m much more concerned about convenience than security, but Face ID is 20× more secure than Touch ID. That’s according to Apple’s own Apple Platform Security whitepaper, updated just last month, which states:

    The probability that a random person in the population could unlock a user’s iPad, iPhone, or Apple Vision Pro is less than 1 in 1 million with Optic ID or Face ID — including when Face ID with a mask is turned on. For a user’s iPad, iPhone, Mac models with Touch ID, and those paired with a Magic Keyboard with Touch ID, it’s less than 1 in 50,000. This probability increases with multiple enrolled fingerprints (up to 1 in 10,000 with five fingerprints) or appearances for Face ID (up to 1 in 500,000 with two appearances).

  • As a sign of how inconvenient the lack of Face ID is, Apple is promoting the fact that the iPhone Duo can be unlocked by your Apple Watch, like a Mac. No other iPhone needs such a crutch. Based on my experience with Touch ID iPads, wearing an Apple Watch all the time to unlock the Duo will feel essential. I don’t wear an Apple Watch all the time, and don’t want to start wearing an Apple Watch all the time, so I suspect this alone will keep me from switching to an iPhone Duo personally. On the other hand, for people who do wear an Apple Watch all the time and are happy to do so, the Duo’s lack of Face ID might prove to be only an occasional inconvenience rather than a constant annoyance.

I’ve seldom been more prescient. More than anything else about the Duo experience, I despise the lack of Face ID. It is a dealbreaker for me. I’ll reconsider a future model that at least has Face ID on the front outer display, but I have no plans to purchase this one. I tried to keep track in my pocket Field Notes notebook how many times I had to be told to authenticate with Touch ID, along with a separate tally of how many times I had to enter my full device passcode in situations where I know I would not have with an iPhone uno, and I ran out of space on the sheet of paper. If you are not wearing an Apple Watch, it is an unceasing frustration.

Apple actually made a TV commercial exemplifying the Touch ID experience on iPhone Duo 20 years ago, as part of the “Get a Mac” campaign with John Hodgman and Justin Long. Here, you can watch it on YouTube. Over and over and over, seemingly 20,000 times a day: put your goddamn finger on the Touch ID button.

Now, if you do wear an Apple Watch, and you pair it with your iPhone Duo, and you enable the off-by-default setting to allow your watch to unlock your Duo, this is much better. It’s not good, but it’s at least tolerable. If you have multiple iPhones though, this feature only works if your watch is paired with your Duo. This is a fundamental shortcoming in the architecture of WatchOS. Apple Watch should be like AirPods, where it just pairs on-the-fly with whatever device you’re currently using, so long as they’re signed into the same Apple Account. You don’t have to pair your AirPods to one single device and then completely factory reset them to use with another. AirPods wouldn’t be a hit product if that were true. But that’s how Apple Watch works. It’s true that most people only own one iPhone, but the existence of the iPhone Handoff feature is proof that Apple is thinking about the fact that some of us own more than one. If one of them is a Duo, you will want to pair your Apple Watch with the Duo. But that means that with iPhone Handoff, your Apple Watch won’t share a cellular connection when you’re using your other iPhone. Cellular carriers are now more adept at seamlessly dealing with multiple iPhones than Apple’s own watch. It’s a complete mess of Apple’s own making.

The unlock-with-Apple-Watch feature doesn’t work all the time for me. When it does work, you know it, because you get a tap on your wrist from the watch every time your Duo unlocks via the nearby watch. But sometimes, even though I haven’t taken my watch off since it last unlocked the Duo, it doesn’t work, and I have to use Touch ID. Oftentimes, for reasons I do not understand, Touch ID isn’t enough, and I have to enter my passcode. I think it’s because I so often inadvertently press the side and Camera Control buttons while folding and unfolding the Duo — that might put it in a state where it wants to authenticate the most secure way possible, with my passcode.

It’s mildly annoying that your Apple Watch taps your wrist every time it automatically unlocks your Duo (dozens and dozens of taps per day, every day), but it’s obviously a good thing that it does. It obviously is less secure than Face ID or even Touch ID. I handed the Duo to my son to play with the hinge over the weekend, and as soon as he started playing with it, my wrist tapped. Oops, the whole iPhone was unlocked for him. That was no big deal, and in fact we shared a laugh about it. But it couldn’t happen with Face ID or Touch ID.

There’s also an optional feature where you can unlock the Duo just by “resting” a registered finger on the Touch ID button. This does add a touch of convenience (again, I swear no pun intended), when I remember to do it, but this too doesn’t seem to work all the time. My theory is that sometimes I’m resting my finger on the button and the sensor doesn’t think the finger is a match. Other times, I wind up unlocking the Duo inadvertently, just by holding it with my thumb on the button. I never ever unlock my iPhone Pros accidentally. With the Duo, it happens at least once a day.

The only tolerable way to use the Duo is by always wearing an Apple Watch, and enabling the feature to allow the watch to unlock it. I do not want to wear an Apple Watch all day every day. And it seems ridiculous that that’s the only way to make the Duo experience tolerable. As annoying as it is to use an iPad with a Touch ID button, it’s far more annoying to use an iPhone with one, because I unlock my iPhone at least an order of magnitude more frequently than I do my iPad.

I’ll reconsider a future Duo model that at least has Face ID on the outside, but I don’t think I’ll ever truly enjoy the experience of using one unless it has Face ID on both sides. I can’t wait to finish writing this review, switch my eSIM back to my iPhone 18 Pro, and set this Duo aside on my desk. I don’t think Apple should have released the Duo until they figured this out.

Buttons and Camera Orientation, the Hinge, and the Cameras Generally

My Touch ID complaints are exacerbated by the fact that, from an experiential standpoint, the side button keeps moving around. When the Duo is closed, button placement isn’t a problem. But when it’s open, the buttons feel wrongly placed. On a Touch ID iPad, held vertically, the button is on the top on the right side. And from there, to switch to horizontal orientation, you rotate it counterclockwise, which moves the Touch ID button to the left side, at the top. But this is all backwards on the Duo. Held vertically, the Duo’s Touch ID button is on the top on the left side. And you have to rotate it clockwise to get it back to horizontal. I’ve gotten more used to it after a week, but while using the big inner display, whenever I’m pestered to authenticate with Touch ID — which, again, is all the time — there’s also a moment of “Wait, where is the Touch ID button?” Many times throughout the week, while holding it vertically, the Touch ID button has been on the bottom, because my instincts for how to rotate it from horizontal to vertical and vice-versa are backwards from how the Duo intends. It’s like the Duo has a built-in game called “Where Are the Buttons?”, and it’s not a fun game.

The main camera orientation is more frustrating, and I consider it a mistake. The main camera is aligned with the small outer display. When you’re capturing photos or videos using the outer display, you hold the Duo horizontally to capture horizontal images, and hold it vertically to capture vertical images. But when you open the Duo, the camera sensor doesn’t magically rotate. So when you’re using the big inner display, you capture horizontal images when holding the Duo vertically, and vertical images when holding the device horizontally.

You can’t have it both ways. Apple needed to choose which display to align the camera with. Apple reps told me they chose to align it with the outer display because they think that’s the display users will use most often when using the camera. They’re probably right that the outer display will be used most frequently with the camera, so maybe they made the correct decision here. But my gut feeling is they should have aligned the camera the other way. Let the outer display have the reverse camera orientation. That would feel like an old Flip camera from 20 years ago — a small handheld camera that you held vertically to capture horizontally. Who cares if the viewfinder doesn’t fill the screen, the screen is tiny anyway.

It just seems weird to me that you can open the Duo to have a truly huge viewfinder, and there’s no way to fill it. Here’s Apple’s own Camera app, when the Duo is open vertically, open horizontally, and closed:

Side by side: Camera app, when the Duo is open vertically, open horizontally, and closed. Each screenshot shows a Ralph Steadman painting that hangs in my office.

So with the big inner screen, you can never come close to filling the screen with the image you’re trying to capture. You get thick black letterboxing or pillarboxing. The viewfinder preview is roughly the same size on the inner screen as the outer screen, despite the inner screen being twice the size. This doesn’t make sense to me. I would prefer a tiny preview on the small outer display and a huge preview on the large inner display, with the camera sensors aligned with the inner display.

Also, because the outer screen is a different aspect ratio than the camera sensor (1.4:1 display; 4:3 sensor), photos taken using the outer screen capture a slightly larger image than what is shown in the viewfinder. That’s because the outer screen viewfinder presents a full-screen preview, which forces all of the Camera app controls to overlay the preview image. In the screenshot above showing the Camera app on the outer display, the actual photograph from that perspective includes part of the painting frame, even though you cannot see any of the frame in the preview. Here’s the photo I snapped from that vantage. This discrepancy between the viewfinder and the actual captured image is not a huge deal — it’s OK to capture more than the viewfinder shows — but it’s worth being aware of.

As for the camera itself, it’s terrific. It’s clearly not of the same caliber as the iPhone 18 Pro, but it’s good. The technical specs of the Duo’s main 1×/2× camera are nearly identical to those of the year-ago iPhone Air, and I love the iPhone Air’s camera. If anything, the Duo’s camera should be better, because it gets the year-better A20 Pro imaging pipeline. Which, notably, brings support for the same new Photographic Styles, including textures like film grain, that were introduced with the iPhone 18 Pro.

Also, notably different from the Air, the Duo has an ultrawide 0.5× second camera lens. This brings both the ultrawide perspective and macro photography. Like the Air, the Duo’s main 1× camera has a minimum focus distance of 15cm. That’s closer than the 17 and 18 Pro cameras (20cm), but there are a lot of times you want to snap photos of receipts or documents closer than 15 cm. With the Air, you can’t. With the Duo, you can.

Build quality of the Duo seems nothing short of excellent. It’s solid. It has a satisfying feel opening and closing, and it closes with a particularly pleasing snap. When it’s open it stays open and perfectly flat. When it’s closed it stays closed, with no gap. However, if forced to choose between the verbs flip and pry to describe the force necessary to open it, the more accurate verb is pry. You need two hands for sure and you kind of need to get your fingernail in the gap. It’s also tricky to open or close without inadvertently pressing the side or Camera Control buttons. I wind up clicking both of these buttons all the time, and sometimes it messes things up. I’ve snapped four accidental photos with the Camera Control button while trying to close (or open? not sure) the Duo in one week. I have zero such photos from the last 30 days taken with my iPhone 18 Pro. At least one of these even looks obscene at thumbnail scale, which gave me a momentary jolt when I saw it in my camera roll:

Oops.

There’s a subtle plastic lip around the inner display. This keeps the corners of the display from smacking into each other when you close it, and in practice while the Duo is open, this lip actually feels good to the touch, not like an unwanted barrier.

The same cannot be said for Apple’s $80 first-party silicone case. I can’t believe anyone will want to use this. It adds such a big lip to the outer display that you need to go into Settings → Display & Brightness and turn on a special option: “Shift Left Edge”, which shrinks the front display away from the left edge. It even requires glue to keep it attached. The adhesive is not particularly sticky — you can pop it right off — but I mean, come on. This contraption is ridiculous. I’ve never been a regular case user with my iPhones and I think people worry needlessly about scratches, especially now with Apple’s Ceramic Shield 2. I firmly believe that putting a case on your phone makes you more likely to drop it because you’re less likely to be careful with it. But foldable phones in particular seem inherently incompatible with cases that are subtle rather than obtrusively prophylactic.

Apple’s $130 folio case is better. It’s made with Apple’s “TechWoven” fabric, which has a good high-quality feel. It’s got a kickstand that I guess might be convenient at times, but I don’t understand the lifestyle where you want to open a cover just to see the front face of your phone every time you use it. Also, it’s $130.

Live a little, I say. If you buy a Duo, try it without a case. Get AppleCare if you’re the nervous sort.

The App Situation

Using apps that haven’t been updated for the iOS 27.0 SDK is a terrible experience. They just look like little virtual iPhone Minis floating in a sea of black on the big inner display. You can zoom them, like the old “2×” button on iPads when running iPhone apps, but that stinks too. Apps that have been compiled for the 27 SDK but haven’t yet updated to the new Duo-specific APIs in the 27.1 SDK are ... OK. But even some of them blow. Take a look at the NYT Games app, and its custom crossword keyboard — it needs an orthodontist. Most of my favorite apps have already been properly updated for the Duo. Some, however, like Tapbots’s Ivory, have not. Your bank probably won’t support the Duo until the Duo 2 is out next year. I think Apple has clearly done a great job evangelizing developers to support the Duo properly. Netflix does and it’s really cool. WhatsApp is in that middle state, where because it’s been compiled with the 27 SDK, it at least fills the inner screen, but it’s just a scaled regular iPhone layout. Signal, which has always been a particularly crummy app, is one of the turds that looks like an iPhone Mini floating in a sea of black.

Last night I wanted to watch the Sixers beat the Knicks in their NBA season opener while I worked on this review. I had to use the NBC Sports app, which has not been updated for the Duo at all. The experience sucked. I could pop video out of the mini window to play sort of full-screen, but whenever I tapped the display it went back to iPhone Mini mode. The only good experience you can have using the iPhone Duo is with apps that have been updated for it. It’s better than nothing that un-updated apps run at all, but they certainly don’t deliver a premium $2,000-phone experience.

Using the iPhone Duo for this last week, in particular, has been fascinating in this regard. When I first got the Duo set up last Tuesday, very few of my third-party apps properly supported it. The ones that did were mostly ones where I was already a beta tester through TestFlight. As the week wore on, more and more apps with proper or at least semi-proper Duo support began appearing in the App Store. This made a huge difference to my pleasure using the device. By the time the very first Duo shipments reach actual customers this Friday, there will be more updated apps than there are today. It makes such a huge difference. I honestly don’t know how folks at Apple who’ve been privately testing the Duo for months before this managed to keep their sanity, unless they just eschewed third-party apps while testing it over the summer.

Miscellaneous

  • When you pair an external Bluetooth keyboard with the Duo, Command-Tab doesn’t do anything. I actually like pairing a hardware keyboard with my iPhone unos, for writing notes and Journal entries while I drink coffee in the morning. For years I’ve wished that iOS supported Command-Tab like iPadOS does. With the Duo, this seems like a glaring omission.3 The Duo plus a portable Bluetooth keyboard seems like an amazing travel or commute combination.

  • Standby mode (folded like a tent) is cool. In addition to Apple’s built-in clock/calendar/photo screens that you can swipe between in this mode, if you have a Live Activity going, you can tap the Live Activity’s small icon at the top in Standby mode and make the Live Activity take the full screen. “Laptop mode” is cool too, for apps like Netflix, so you can watch video on half of the inner display while the device is folded like an L.

  • There are so many nice little touches in iOS to support the Duo. Even the factory-fresh onboarding experience lets you fold and unfold it while you’re turning it on and setting it up. One of my favorite details is that when you rotate the Duo while on the home screen, the Dock doesn’t just move from the bottom (vertically) to the right (horizontally). Instead, it disappears and reappears, sliding in from off-screen in its new position. It reminds me of Pac-Man’s warp tunnel.

  • Battery life has been very good for me. No problem getting through a heavy day of usage at all.

  • The Duo often gets warm. Not hot, but noticeably warm. My instincts say “warm phone = bad for battery life”, but, per the previous item in this list, battery life is fine. There might be some use cases I haven’t spent much time trying, like graphics-intensive games, where thermals are a problem. But I didn’t run into them.

  • iOS 27.1 is a little buggy. Sometimes when I’m rotating the device using the inner display, apps get zoomed in too big, as though they think they’re on the small outer display or something. Tapping around or folding/unfolding again clears it up. I ran into one really weird rendering glitch, on Thursday night last week. I noticed what I first thought was a smear of schmutz on the crease. I tried to rub it away but it didn’t help. I thought for a few minutes that the display was breaking, coming detached right at the crease. But I only saw the smear when holding the Duo vertically. Horizontally it vanished. Here’s a screenshot showing it — look at the words “strode to the plate” in the first line of the second paragraph. If you zoom in, you can see that it’s actually a capsule-shaped overlay atop the text. Here’s a video screen recording of it while I scroll the article. This glitch was visible in the exact same position on screen — right on the 50-yard-line of the crease — in every single app I used while holding the Duo vertically. I took some screenshots and went to bed, without restarting the Duo. When I woke up Friday morning, the glitch was gone. I haven’t seen it, or anything like it, again. My theory is that I triggered it playing around that night with different “poses” for the Duo, including a bunch where I had it in an L- or V-shape, which in many apps puts a purposeful blur across the crease.

The Duo comes in two colors: star light (off white) and night sky (very dark blue). My review unit is star light. It looks good. I’d buy night sky if I were going to buy one, which I’m not.

Pricing:

256 GB 512 GB 1 TB 2 TB
18 Pro $1,200 $1,400 $1,800 $2,400
18 Pro Max $1,300 $1,500 $1,900 $2,500
Duo $2,000 $2,200 $2,600 $3,200

At every storage tier, it’s $800 more than an 18 Pro and $700 more than an 18 Pro Max.

The Decision

Every time you pick up the Duo to use it you face The Decision. Open it? Or be lazy and suffer with the outside display? Every time. Even if you get used to all the other things, you’ll always face The Decision, every time you pick up the Duo.

And there’s a third option. Just after writing the preceding paragraph, I took a break to pick up some sandwiches for lunch. Get out of the house, enjoy at least a few minutes of a beautiful autumn afternoon, and stretch my legs. Waiting for the sandwiches to be prepared at the bagel joint, I took the Duo out of my pocket and checked NetNewsWire. First article up was a good one. Started reading. Screen’s too small. Do I want to open the Duo? Sandwiches aren’t going to take long. I clicked the side button to sleep the Duo and put it back into my jeans pocket (where it sank like the brick that it is). I spent the rest of the wait alone with my thoughts, pondering how to finish this review.

Apple isn’t going to start an ad campaign with a slogan like “So cumbersome you’ll keep it in your pocket”, but that’s part of my experience. If you really want to do something, or sit back and read or watch something, the big display is fantastic. But that Duo-as-tablet experience is so cumbersome compared to the “just look at it” experience of using a regular iPhone uno that you simply cannot do it every time you use the Duo. You will use the outer display quite a bit. And using the outer display delivers the worst iPhone experience ever. I mean, some iPhone has to be the one that offered the worst iPhone experience ever. That iPhone is the outer half of the iPhone Duo. Perhaps for some people looking to be more mindful of their screen time, this is actually a selling point.

Here’s my steelman argument for the Duo. iPads are good devices. Almost everyone likes them, and many people love them. But wouldn’t it be better if you could fold an iPad in half to make it more portable? The answer has to be yes — if that foldability did not saddle the device with an ugly visible crease in the display. Folding in half would be a nice trick for any iPad, but especially the iPad Mini. An iPad Air folded in half would fit in more compartments in your backpack, but it would not fit in your pants. An iPad Mini folded in half would. Wouldn’t it be even better if Apple added a small screen to the outside of this hypothetical foldable iPad Mini we’re imagining? That way, even when folded, you could check the time, see recent notifications, and pay attention to Live Activities. That sounds like a great idea, right? Well, that’s the iPhone Duo.

If you’d rather trade your iPhone for an iPad Mini that you can fold in half to carry around, the iPhone Duo might be the form factor for you. Even if that’s the case, though, this first iPhone Duo might not suit you, for all the various irritations and shortcomings I’ve documented above. Plus, an actual iPad Mini costs $800 for 256 GB of storage (at this writing); an iPhone Duo with 256 GB costs a cool $2000.

It’s been a lot of fun trying the Duo out for a week, but it feels like I’ve gotten to use an extraordinarily polished prototype — not a finished product that I’d want to buy and carry.


  1. I thought about referring to the Duo variant of iOS 27 as “DuOS”, which seemed clever in my mind, but looked stupid as hell the first time I tried typing it. “DuoOS” isn’t much better. So I’ll go with “iOS Duo” as shorthand for now. ↩︎

  2. I’ve kept a consistent Dock arrangement on my iPhone for as long as I can remember. From left to right: Messages, my notes app, Safari, and my “what’s new?” app. My notes app originally was Apple Notes, then Simplenote, then Vesper (duh), and ever since Vesper’s demise, Apple Notes again. My “what’s new?” app (which, if I’m being honest, might better be described as my “I’m bored” app) was Twitterrific, then Tweetie, then Twitter, then Tweetbot, then Ivory. Several months ago I prioritized RSS over all social media platforms, and moved NetNewsWire down there. I don’t check any Twitter-like social networks until I feel caught up on RSS, which means I often don’t check them at all. I’m at least a little happier for it, and I know I’m more productive. ↩︎︎

  3. Also, with an iPhone uno, when you pair a hardware keyboard, you can use Command-H to go to the home screen. That doesn’t work on the Duo. I don’t know if that’s a bug or a design concession for the fact that with split screen multitasking, “go to the home screen” can’t be a single command. You might want to go home on the left, on the right, or full screen. Swiping on screen makes those actions unambiguous. Command-H would not. If you think about it, this is actually very similar to the conundrum I mention elsewhere in this review, regarding the incoherency of Apple’s decade-ago attempts to bring split-screen multitasking to the iPad in the Home button era. I think with a paired keyboard, however, Command-H should just always take you back to the full-screen home screen. Make it go all the way home, not just halfway home. ↩︎︎

Workshop on Economics and Information Security (WEIS) Archive

There’s a new archive of all the papers from twenty-five years of the Workshop on Economics and Information Security (WEIS).

Really nice resource. It’s fun to reread my 2002 essay on the economics of information security.

[RODEN] Digger Is Good, Notebooks, Please Be Weirder

Roden Readers —

Hello from the other side of hiding in Europe during Japan’s extended summer / record-breakingly rainy September. It is I, Modo-san.

I was working on a book in London. And then co-leading a Walk and Talk in Norway. And then participating in an artist retreat in Italy. Erroneously, I thought we had been approaching “layers season” in Tokyo. False alarm. It’s 29℃ and about 80% humidity today. American tourists are still in shorts. One day soon a sweater might be worn in this great city without sweaty regret. But that day is not today.

Wednesday 21 October 1663

Up, and by and by comes my brother Tom to me, though late (which do vex me to the blood that I could never get him to come time enough to me, though I have spoke a hundred times; but he is very sluggish, and too negligent ever to do well at his trade I doubt), and having lately considered with my wife very much of the inconvenience of my going in no better plight, we did resolve of putting me into a better garb, and, among other things, to have a good velvet cloake; that is, of cloth lined with velvet and other things modish, and a perruque, and so I sent him and her out to buy me velvet, and I to the Exchange, and so to Trinity House, and there dined with Sir W. Batten, having some business to speak with him, and Sir W. Rider. Thence, having my belly full, away on foot to my brother’s, all along Thames Streete, and my belly being full of small beer, I did all alone, for health’s sake, drink half a pint of Rhenish wine at the Still-yard, mixed with beer.

From my brother’s with my wife to the Exchange, to buy things for her and myself, I being in a humour of laying out money, but not prodigally, but only in clothes, which I every day see that I suffer for want of, I so home, and after a little at my office, home to supper and to bed.

Memorandum: This morning one Mr. Commander, a scrivener, came to me from Mr. Moore with a deed of which. Mr. Moore had told me, that my Lord had made use of my name, and that I was desired by my Lord to sign it. Remembering this very well, though understanding little of the particulars, I read it over, and found it concern Sir Robt. Bernard and Duckinford, their interest in the manor of Brampton. So I did sign it, declaring to Mr. Commander that I am only concerned in having my name at my Lord Sandwich’s desire used therein, and so I sealed it up after I had signed and sealed the deed, and desired him to give it so sealed to Mr. Moore. I did also call at the Wardrobe this afternoon to have told Mr. Moore of it, but he was not within, but knowing Mr. Commander to have the esteem of a good and honest man with my Lord Crew, I did not doubt to intrust him with the deed after I had signed it.

This evening after I came home I begun to enter my wife in arithmetique, in order to her studying of the globes, and she takes it very well, and, I hope, with great pleasure, I shall bring her to understand many fine things.

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Today's PHP Security Release, and How We're Strengthening PHP Security

Today's PHP Security Release, and How We're Strengthening PHP Security

If you're running anything on PHP it's vital you upgrade - today's updates (across the entire PHP 8.x line) address two remote code execution holes, and there have been exploits circulating since last night, thanks to a leak in the coordinated disclosure process.

This post from the PHP Foundation explain what went so wrong:

On Tuesday, October 20th, at around 15:00 UTC, the two CVE IDs began circulating on online forums and social media. They came with a wrong release time and a wrong CVSS score of 10.0 (the actual score is 9.2). No technical details leaked. In response, the PHP project brought its pre-announcement forward and published it at 19:30 UTC. It also moved the release from October 22nd, 14:00 UTC, to October 21st, 14:00 UTC [...]

As a result of the leak and pre-announcement around 20:00 UTC, Calif, one of the security firms that had reported the issues mistakenly published a video. It showed their proof of concept working against a number of targets and revealed a few additional, though limited, details about the vulnerabilities. Copies of the deleted video started circulating on social media soon after. The video contributed to accelerated development of various PoCs (exploitation proof of concepts), which then increased circulation on October 21st.

This article from the team that discovered the original vulnerability includes a more detailed timeline of the original intended responsible disclosure:

  • August 19, 2026: Wiz Research discovers the first PHP vulnerability using Wiz Atlas, Gemini 4 Argon, and GPT-5.6 Sol.
  • August 20, 2026: Unauthenticated RCE is confirmed against Drupal.
  • August 21, 2026: Unauthenticated RCE is confirmed against WordPress.
  • August 24, 2026: Wiz Research reports the vulnerabilities to the PHP security team.
  • September 21, 2026: PHP acknowledges the reports and begins developing a coordinated fix.
  • October 21, 2026: Patched PHP releases become available.
  • October 21, 2026: Public disclosure.

Via Hacker News

Tags: open-source, php, security, ai, ai-security-research

Panache — RTS Belle Époque pour mobile

Panache — RTS Belle Époque pour mobile

Well this is delightful: I released Battle Drones yesterday under an Apache 2.0 License and there's already a French language fork which reskins the game to take place in steampunk 1900s France and adds an animated intro!

Panache est un jeu de stratégie en temps réel pour mobile et navigateur, dans la France de la Belle Époque (vers 1900) : dirigeables, Fardiers à vapeur, Creusot cuirassés, automates en képi, Gargantua la forteresse marchante — et beaucoup de panache.

You can play Panache here - it's worth clicking that link just to experience the new intro video.

So far it's mostly just aesthetic updates as opposed to gameplay changes. The music has had a French twist added to it as well.

The new steampunk models are so cool!

The new buildings are gold and red, there are dirigibles and biplanes, and the Goliath stomping mech has had a total makeover.

Here's a page with the original Battle Drones models and that same page with the new Panache alternatives.

This is a comparison of the original and the new design for the Goliath:

On the left: blue stomping mech robot, missile launcher shoulders, classic sci-fi robot look. On the right: gold, steampunk, much more 1900s French look.

Via @Meffysto69

Tags: game-design, open-source

eMudhra Intermediate CA Compromise

eMudhra Intermediate CA Compromise

This is very, very bad news:

The private keys of eight eMudhra intermediate CA certificates have been compromised. They chain to roots trusted by the Mozilla, Microsoft, Apple and Chrome root programs and by many downstream trust stores.

Any software that bundles a list of trusted certificates needs to be updated. This site is tracking software updates via this GitHub repository - Linux distros need to update their ca-certificates packages.

In Python world uv 0.13.4 and pip 26.2.2 and certifi 2026.10.19 have been released with upgraded certificate lists.

Tags: encryption, https, pip, python, security, uv

The Future Of Fighter Jets - EP 93 Hermeus With Zach Shore And A.J. Piplica

We’re heading into fighter jet territory this week with Zach Shore (CEO) and A.J. Piplica (Co-Founder and Executive Chairman) of Hermeus.

Founded in 2018, Hermeus has set out to make supersonic and even hypersonic jets that can fly themselves. They’re part of this new wave of defense startups trying to prove that the U.S. can still produce technological marvels in a timely and not criminally expensive fashion. Hermeus’s planes would be a new breed of fighter jets that can use their speed and autonomy to carry out missions without putting pilots at risk.

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We conducted this interview with Shore and Piplica a couple of months back at Spaceport America just ahead of a test flight of Hermeus’s Quarterhorse Mk 2.1 plane. I’m pleased to tell you that the plane did indeed go supersonic, and it was awesome to behold. We’ll have a video on the experience soon on our YouTube channel.

This interview covers Hermeus’s journey, the state of the U.S. defense industry, plane design and how the U.S. hopes to keep pace with China in areas like hypersonic flight.

Hermeus’s planes are remotely piloted for now, but it has partnered with Anduril to give its aircraft autonomous mission capabilities. For hypersonic flight, it’s developing a fascinating hybrid engine design intended to switch from a turbine to a ramjet midair.

Hermeus achieved supersonic flight on Mk 2.1’s third test flight and is betting it can keep building and testing new prototypes much faster than traditional defense contractors. You can see its planes and timelines here.

SPONSOR

Some of you will be wondering, “Is this episode sponsored?”. Yeah, it is. By the wonderful people at Brex.

I’ve worked at large companies like The New York Times and Bloomberg, and their expense systems were terrible. Brex’s expense management systems, by contrast, are fantastic. AI agents run around taking care of tons of stuff for you and give you back your time.

Your company should switch to Brex to make life better for everyone. Find out more here.

TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
3:39 Supersonic With Nobody Aboard
6:21 Building an Aircraft Company
17:02 From Turbines to Ramjets
22:18 The Unmanned Bomb Truck
30:25 Will Passengers Fly Hypersonic?
31:56 America's Flight Testing Bottleneck
40:08 Who Actually Flies It?
45:12 Rebuilding the Skunk Works
47:06 China and America's Aerospace Bet

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Trump is Destroying Americans’ Healthcare

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On the eve of the midterm election, American families are feeling financially stressed As the chart above shows, the percentage of families who say that their financial situation is good has plunged. For the first time since the post-Covid inflation of 2022, it has fallen below the percentage who say that their financial situation is bad.

Rising prices are the obvious explanation for this stress. And while presidents usually have much less influence on the economy than is generally recognized, the current outbreak of high inflation is all on Donald Trump. He began this with two wars of choice: one, a trade war with his destructive tariffs, and then an unwinnable military war in the most important energy transit point in the world.

There is, however, a third factor behind Americans’ anger, and it isn’t getting nearly as much attention as it should. There has been a catastrophic decline in health insurance coverage combined with sharply rising premiums for many of those who have managed to hang on to their coverage. And this, too, is all on Trump.

Here’s what happened: Trump and his congressional minions refused to renew the expanded subsidies that had made health insurance affordable for millions of Americans during the Biden years. At the same time the One Big Beautiful Bill imposed punitive work requirements that made it far more difficult for families to obtain Medicaid coverage.

And we haven’t felt the full effect of these changes yet — Republicans tried to backload the effects of the OBBB so that much of the pain will come after the midterms. But the consequences of this attack on healthcare have already been dire.

By June 2026 enrollment in Medicaid and the Childrens’ Health Insurance Program had declined by more than 6 million since January 2025; 2.5 million of those losing coverage were children. KFF estimates that enrollment in individual plans, mainly via the Affordable Care Act, was down almost 5 million by June. The redoubtable Charles Gaba, putting these numbers together with other information, estimates that around 12 million Americans have lost health insurance under Trump 2.0.

That’s a lot of lost coverage, even in a nation as big as ours. And because many of the savage cuts Trump and his allies have imposed on healthcare have yet to kick in, the situation will get much worse in the years ahead. It’s worth noting thatkicking children off healthcare coverage is especially personally and socially destructive because it compromises their health and earnings potential for their entire lifetimes.

By the way, Trump, after all these years, is once again promising that he’ll come up with a “truly great” healthcare plan any day now. He’s now saying that he’ll send money directly to Americans, stopping payments to insurance companies — thereby demonstrating that he still has no idea how insurance works.

In any case, we’re now in the midst of an enormous healthcare disaster — a disaster that is receiving surprisingly little media coverage with, as far as I can tell, no recent articles on massive coverage losses in any of the major newspapers. I know that there’s a lot going on, but this seems odd.

Voters, however, have noticed. KFF’s tracking poll finds that the cost of healthcare is near the top of voters’ economic worries:

As an overall issue, health care ranks second only to the overall cost of living — and above the Iran war:

This ongoing healthcare disaster is all on Trump and his party. And again, voters appear to have noticed, giving Democrats a large and growing edge on the issue:

So if there is a blue wave 13 days from now, it won’t just be the result of inflation and Trump’s vainglorious wars. It will also in part be the result of a quiet but massive healthcare disaster.

And ultimately, of course, the political implications are a secondary concern. What really matters is that Trump and his party have done all they can to deny healthcare to millions of Americans. They have done this partly to save money — not to reduce the budget deficit, but to make room for tax cuts for the wealthy. They have also done it out of sheer cruelty.

There are many terrible things happening in America right now, from the debacle in Iran to the depredations of ICE. But the healthcare disaster, which will ruin many people financially and in some cases kill Americans who can no longer afford essential care, deserves much more attention than it is getting.

No music today

In memoriam

More on Elizabeth Holmes and prison

The Free Press asked me to expand upon my views of this matter, here is one excerpt from the piece:

Third, fewer women in prison does not have to mean less deterrence overall, as arguably we should concentrate more of our legal resources on deterring violent men.

Note that if we can release enough women from prison, more prison space will be freed up, and I mean more prison space for men, including violent men. It is common to read of shortfalls in jail and prison space, which lead to violent men being released early. Many of these men go on to commit violent crimes, a truly major injustice. Or they commit an ongoing string of misdemeanors, sometimes ranging into the dozens or even hundreds, such as shoplifting or disorderly conduct. Our cities become much less livable as a result.

If we can, over time, convert some of the current prison space for women into prison space for men, especially violent and destructive men, I expect a net increase of justice in this country. I also think it will be a better country to live in.

There is precedent for such a conversion of facilities. In 2013, California turned the Valley State Prison for Women into a men’s prison, as the female prison population was declining and more space was needed to relieve overcrowding among the males.

As an economist might say, sending women to prison is not a free lunch. Given that prison space is scarce, it means the release of more violent criminals, mostly male.

Some reliance on prison is unavoidable.  But it amazes me how much people will go to the mat to defend an institution — whole cloth at that — that makes no real sense in terms either humanitarian or even simply organizational.

The post More on Elizabeth Holmes and prison appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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“You Can See Everything” and the nature of liars

WARNING: This post contains spoilers for the movie You Can See Everything.

A few days ago, I had the great pleasure of seeing Nathan Fielder’s new film, You Can See Everything. I’ve been a fan of Fielder’s work for a long time, so I basically knew what to expect, but it was still incredible — every bit as good as you’ve heard. Go see it if you haven’t.

The film is a documentary about the notorious fraudster Elizabeth Holmes (of Theranos fame) and her partner Billy Evans. But it’s also sort of a horror movie about liars. That was interesting enough that it made me want to write a post about the movie — about the nature of lying, and of belief, and of human communication in general.

If you read even a little bit about the history of Theranos, there is absolutely no question that Elizabeth Holmes is a deliberate fraudster and a prolific, aggressive liar. Holmes presented potential investors with fake financial results in 2015. She personally added fake logos of pharmaceutical companies to Theranos’ own reports. She flatly stated that Theranos didn’t dilute blood samples, then admitted in court that she intentionally concealed the fact that they did dilute blood samples. Theranos employees detailed the whole deliberate fraud in anonymous online posts years before the story broke.

But You Can See Everything doesn’t cover much of this actual history. Fielder doesn’t bother to indict Holmes and prove that she committed fraud — the court case already did that. Instead, he offers a window into the psychology of someone who could commit such an epic fraud. Holmes and Evans allow Fielder into their home with the goal of proving that they’re just regular, good people trying to improve the world. Instead, Fielder depicts the couple — quite accurately — as monsters of deception and manipulation.

It’s doubtful that any other filmmaker could have done nearly as good a job of this. The blurry line between what’s real and what’s fake has always been a major theme of Nathan Fielder’s work — he loves hiring actors to simulate past and future interactions, constructing facsimiles of whole buildings, and so on. And of course he’s very skilled with the tricks of the visual storyteller’s trade, using deliberate cuts, camera angles, and creative edits to make the audience think and feel what he wants them to.

Whereas many filmmakers would have regarded Holmes as a subject to be studied, Fielder seems to see her as an opponent to be challenged and beaten. If he can shoot what Holmes wants him to shoot, but ultimately seize control of the narrative, then he’s the more powerful storyteller. This, I think, is why he doesn’t bring in outside evidence to show what a well-documented liar Holmes is. That would be cheating. Instead, he has to venture into the monster’s lair alone, and defeat her in single combat. He has to film the movie that she asks him to film, and let her show him only what she wants him to see, and still have audiences walk away having seen the story that he wants to tell.

And of course he succeeds, because he’s very good, but also because he gets to edit the film, and editing is more powerful than acting. Score one for the good guys.

(Major spoilers begin here.)

How does Fielder win the contest? Over the course of You Can See Everything, he captures Elizabeth Holmes saying a number of strange and extraordinary things:

  1. Near the beginning, Holmes tells Fielder that she’s never lied in her life. After he presses her, she half-admits that she may have told small white lies out of convenience. But the audience gets to watch her repeatedly assert something obviously, fantastically false, always with the same sincere, relaxed, wide-eyed expression on her face.

  2. Later on, Fielder shows Holmes the famous “Who’s on first?” comedy routine, which she claims never to have seen. After watching it, Holmes claims not to have realized that the baseball player’s name is “Who” — thus missing the entire point of the sketch.

  3. Fielder recruits Amanda Seyfried, who played Holmes in the miniseries The Dropout, to help him figure out what’s going on with Holmes and her partner. At one point, Holmes is calling on the phone from prison. Seyfried asks Holmes if she knew Seyfried would be on the call, and Holmes says “I’m not sure if I knew.”

It’s moments like these, more than any simple lie, that reveal Holmes’ true character. In fact, Fielder seems like he passes up several chances to catch Holmes in a straight-up lie on camera. After all, what would one lie, or even three lies, really prove? Everyone lies sometimes, and capturing a couple of those instances during weeks of living with Holmes wouldn’t be hard. It would be a cheap trick, and it wouldn’t really prove that Holmes is a liar in general.

Instead, the moments Fielder captures demonstrate something deeper and far more unnerving about Holmes’ relationship to the truth. Holmes is a very special and powerful kind of liar — someone for whom deception and manipulation are as automatic and as continuous as breathing.

Type 1 liars and Type 2 liars

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Microbes on Enceladus?

Until we get more assets in orbit around Saturn, we’re left to studying Cassini data on the fascinating moon Enceladus, findings that have already revealed much about geyser activity at the moon’s south polar region and its implications. New lab work is now procovative, as Alex Tolley reports in this morning’s essay. While we cannot claim a detection of life, it increasingly appears that the same kind of hot vents that allow life to flourish on the ocean floors of Earth produce nurturing conditions on Enceladus as well. Could an Earth organism survive in the rugged little moon’s ocean? As Alex explains, the recent experiments are more than a little encouraging. If a future mission finds evidence of microbes in the Enceladan ocean, we will have not only proven that life exists on another world, but that conditions common on icy moons may support living systems throughout the outer system.

by Alex Tolley

Introduction

Last year, 3i/Atlas, the interstellar comet, eclipsed the important reanalysis of the Cassini plume data. While the news speculated about whether Atlas was an alien probe, a Nature Astronomy paper concerning the reanalysis of the Cassini plume particles found a host of interesting organic molecules, more complex than hitherto found. Rather than simple molecules like methane (CH4), the analysis using mass spectrometry detected evidence of more complex multi-carbon compounds of different types, as shown in Figure 1. Click this image from the paper to enlarge it.

The carbon structures detected implied that more complex molecules existed in the plumes, but most interesting was that these structures are also part of biomolecules. In other words, some of these molecules could have come from organisms. Had Cassini found possible biosignatures of organisms that had been ejected from the sun-surface ocean?

Unfortunately, the molecules were not a smoking gun. All of them could have also had an abiotic origin, and not one required a known terrestrial biological synthesis route. The paper included a diagram showing the possible origin and pathways. Examination of the image shows that there are no definite biological molecules found, nor any biochemical pathway between the putative compounds. At best we might have another ambiguous biosignature.

Figure 2 (click to enlarge). The structures, possible molecules, their origin, and pathways between them. No biological molecule was found, nor any biochemical pathway between the detected structures. (The original caption is included to explain the diagram),

An intriguing finding, but “no cigar.” An ambiguous finding that we must expect at this stage of biosignature detection.

Enceladus as an Abode for Life

Before I go into the microbe growth experiment, I should explain why Enceladus may be an interesting abode for life. The obvious, and simple, answer is NASA’s mantra “follow the water”. The shape of the Saturn-originated magnetic field data around Enceladus is best interpreted as due to a liquid ocean. The plumes that were detected at the South pole were largely composed of water ice, so we know that this ocean is large and must be above freezing, unlike the frozen ice crust above it. The plumes must be getting their energy from somewhere, and the best hypothesis is from a hot, rocky core.

Surface temperatures on Enceladus show that the South Pole is warmer than the rest of the surface, indicating a hot spot below that drives the plumes, rather like the Old Faithful geyser at Yellowstone National Park. Why should Enceladus have a hot core? It is a small moon, about 500 km in diameter. Any radioactive elements should have long since cooled. The best explanation is that tidal forces squeeze Enceladus, keeping at least pockets of the core hot. The thinking goes that ocean water seeping into the rocky core is heated and forms hot vents of a similar nature to those in the Earth’s oceans. As the Earth’s hot vents are surrounded by life from bacteria to complex life, so Enceladus’s ocean vents may also support life. One dominant hypothesis of Earth’s abiogenesis is that the conditions at the alkaline rocks at Earth’s hot vents create the needed hydrogen (H2) coupled with dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) to provide the needed energy via methanogenesis for prokaryotic methanogens to grow. The archaea prokaryotes are predominantly methanogens and possibly the earliest form of extant life that emerged at these vents.

Image: Hot vent on Earth. Credit: NOAA

Are the Enceladan vents similar to Earth’s? The main difference is their temperature. On Earth, the vent water emerges around 400°C, whilst it is calculated that on Enceladus, the temperature is closer to 90°C. This makes little difference as the temperature rapidly declines away from the vent, much as the energy from a star declines with increasing orbital distance.

The ocean on Enceladus is 16-31 km deep, with an overlying ice crust of 20-25 km. However, as the gravity is just 1% of Earth’s, the pressure at the bottom of the ocean is equivalent to just 400-650 m on Earth, compared to Earth’s average ocean depth of 4 km. Therefore, we have a temperature and pressure at the Enceladan vents that are well within the range of Earth’s.

There is one difference from Earth’s ocean. The alkalinity of Earth’s oceans is generally neutral (pH 7) to mildly alkaline, although becoming more acidic due to increasing CO2 emissions. In some vent fields, the pH is as high as 8 [1]. By comparison, Enceladus ocean water is more alkaline with a pH of 11-12. Due to more sodium carbonate (Na2CO3) [2]

Growing terrestrial organisms in simulated Enceladan ocean medium

This year, the same team published a paper asking a different question. Could life be extant in the Enceladan ocean to create the detected organic compounds by Cassini? While we still await any possible future discovery of life, it is worth asking whether terrestrial life could survive and reproduce in the conditions of that ocean. If they can, then this proves that life could exist on Enceladus. If life were to exist in the ocean, it likely would occupy the same sort of hot vent habitat that microbes and complex life are found around Earth’s hot vents.

The first step was to concoct a simulant for the Enceladan ocean, an alkaline salt mixture [sodium chloride (NaCl), sodium carbonate (Na2CO3), and sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) with crushed rock that mimicked the likely rocky core at the base of the ocean. To simulate the hot vent, the ocean sample was kept at 65°C. This is a temperature that is too hot for most terrestrial organisms, except for thermophiles adapted to high temperatures. What sort of organisms would be suitable to test? The authors chose an archaeal methanogen that could extract energy from H2 generated by the serpentinization of the rock and the dissolved CO2. The chosen organism, Methanothermococcus okinawensis, was acquired from an ocean hot vent in a Pacific trench near Japan.

The Enceladan ocean simulant [EOS] was made to test 5 pH levels, 9, 9.5, 10, 10.5, and 11, and incubated with the microbes. The controls were an incubation with a standard culture medium for methanogens (MMC) with sodium hydroxide (NaOH) to adjust the pH to the same values as the EOS, and a sterile saline medium.

What did they discover?

Figure 3 (click to enlarge). Cell growth in the 3 experimental alkaline conditions. Cell growth compared to the standard MMC culture for the organism and the sterile control. At pH greater than 9, only the simulated Enceladan ocean sample inoculum increased growth, while the MMC control showed no growth.

First, despite the low CO2 in the EOS, the microorganism extracted energy from the available H2 and CO2, as shown by the growth curves of the archean organisms over the 2-day experiment. A readout of their gene activity as RNA transcripts indicated that the organism over-expressed the genes in the acetyl-CoA pathway to reduce CO2 for fixation.

The methanogenesis reaction is an anaerobic respiration: CO2 + 4 H2 → CH4 + 2 H2O + energy

Figure 4 (click to enlarge). Reductive acetyl-CoA pathway in bacteria. CFeSP is a corrinoid iron-sulfur protein. The cyclic pathway consumes H2 and CO2 to fix carbon as acetyl-CoA, which is passed to other metabolic pathways for growth. – source: Wikipedia CC

To confirm that metabolism was occurring, the carbon source (sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3), the source of CO2) was labelled with carbon-13 as a tracer. This tracer was detected in the released CH4, proving that the organism was responsible for the methanogenesis. [This type of labelled experiment was used to try to detect life with the Viking Mars landers in the 1970s.]

13CO2 + 4 H2 → 13CH4 + 2 H2O (the labeled carbon is transferred to the methane)

Second, the organisms were able to grow despite the alkalinity of the growth medium being beyond the range they were known to tolerate and survive. This adaptation seems to have been achieved by upregulation of the genes in the acetyl-CoA pathway. The experiment clearly demonstrates that a terrestrial organism could live at the hot vents at the bottom of the Enceladan ocean, at least as regards the experimental conditions allowed. While the experiment was not done at the pressure of their natural habitat, and that being greater than at the bottom of the Enceladan ocean, it seems unlikely that pressure was a constraint for such organisms.

The organisms would double their cell numbers about every 6 hours at the baseline conditions at pH 6.5 in MMC. Prior experiments had confirmed that these microbes could not survive in a terrestrial ocean above pH 8.5. At pH 9 in MMC, the growth rate was reduced, doubling in about 40 hours. By pH 10, the cells died. In the EOS condition, at pH 9 the cells doubled in about 23 hours, at pH 10 doubling in about 42 hours, and at pH 11 doubling was slowed to a calculated 126 hours. Although the growth rate was diminished as the pH was increased all the way to 11, the organisms were able to grow at the highest pH, which was well beyond the pH of their natural terrestrial habitat.

What this experiment proved was that a terrestrial organism, not adapted to Enceladus, was able to survive and grow if introduced to Enceladus around a hot vent, near the base of a plume, with an available heat source in the somewhat soda-like conditions of the ocean.

This is very significant, as it supports the earlier Cassini findings that the organic material extracted from the plumes could conceivably have come from organisms as well as an abiotic source. This doesn’t prove Enceladus has life, but that life can exist on Enceladus in the hot, dark conditions around vents at the rock-water interface, and would be worth searching for in a future mission.

It is worth noting that if these terrestrial microbes were introduced to a hot vent on Enceladus, the replication rate would fill that niche quickly due to the power of exponential growth.

Assuming that once that local niche was filled, further growth would be linear, as the new cells would be pushed out into the cold, near-freezing ocean in the plume. The cell density would be substantially reduced, but still detectable in the plume if intact. If the cells were destroyed as they froze, we might be able to detect cell fragments with sufficiently large collection volumes.

What would be exciting would be to detect biomolecules such as fragments of DNA, RNA, proteins, carbohydrates, or lipids in a sample. This could inform us whether any organisms were from a separate genesis, or from an introduction common to terrestrial organisms. Neither DNA, RNA, nor proteins were extracted from the Cassini plume analysis. Had there been, that would have been an unambiguous biosignature. We await a future mission to Enceladus, perhaps even a lander, to investigate further.

The paper about the Cassini plume analysis is: Khawaja, N., Postberg, F., O’Sullivan, T.R. et al. Detection of organic compounds in freshly ejected ice grains from Enceladus’s ocean. Nat Astron 9, 1662–1671 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-025-02655-y

The Experiment growing the methanogens in simulated Enceladan ocean water is: Helmbrecht, V., Postberg, F., Khawaja, N., Reichelt, R., Klein, F., Grohmann, D., & Orsi, W. D. (2026b). Enceladus-like geochemistry fuels methanogenesis under extreme CO 2 limitation. Science Advances, 12(39), eaei0167. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aei0167

References

1. Ocean vent. (n.d.). https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/ocean-vent/

2. Glein, C. R., Baross, J. A., & Waite, J. H. (2015). The pH of Enceladus’ ocean. Geochimica Et Cosmochimica Acta, 162, 202–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2015.04.017

Merging SpaceX and Tesla would be a "good idea," Musk says

Elon Musk said Tuesday that he would like to see the consolidation of his business empire by formally merging his two largest companies, SpaceX and Tesla.

"Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes," Musk said of a potential merger. He was speaking during a question-and-answer period as part of SpaceX's third-quarter earnings call. Musk said, ultimately, it not his decision. "But at the end of the day the shareholders have to be supportive of this."

Musk's talk of a merger comes after a busy year in which SpaceX already acquired Musk's artificial intelligence firm, xAI, in February. In June, SpaceX went public with the largest initial public offering on record.

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Does anyone actually want to win the medium-lift race in the United States?

It has been 13 years since the debut of a new medium-lift rocket in the United States, the Antares vehicle developed by Orbital Sciences Corporation.

The initial 100-series variant of the Antares rocket was kind of a hot mess. The rocket used old Soviet engines built during the era when Apollo astronauts were landing on the Moon. Decades later, in the 1990s, Aerojet acquired the engines and refurbished them for a rocket that would launch in the 2010s. Predictably, on the fifth launch of an Antares rocket in 2014, it exploded.

The Antares vehicle is the last of a dying breed of medium-lift rockets—defined as having a lift capacity of 2 to 20 metric tons—in the United States. Nearly a decade and a half later there is a new generation of medium-lift vehicles coming online, and they are starkly different from Antares, which had not just Russian engines but a core stage manufactured in Ukraine.

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SpaceX to attempt Starship catch on next flight, with eye on rapid cadence increase

In its current iteration, SpaceX is largely a data company seeking to provide enormous amounts of compute for artificial intelligence. During an earnings call on Tuesday afternoon, company officials spent much of their time discussing ambitious plans to roll out up to 10 GW of compute in 2027—on the ground.

Gone are the days of aspirational talk about sending humans to Mars and settling the red planet. Now it is almost all about artificial intelligence and the data needed to support its expansion. However, the company's long-term ambitions to provide data services from space, initially with the Starlink Internet constellation and eventually through the "Starmind" data center constellation, still rely on an actual rocket.

That would be the Starship vehicle, and during the earnings call, SpaceX founder Elon Musk and the company's president and chief operating officer, Gwynne Shotwell, provided new performance targets for the vehicle.

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Wednesday assorted links

1. The Romans and sex.

2. Apartments that expand at the touch of a button.

3. Has this guy composed more songs than anybody else?

4. Psychoanalyzing Elizabeth Holmes.

5. AI wrote some of the Dallas Michelin reviews.  And the reviewer responds.

6. New Yorker profile of James Daunt.  The last event I was at I saw three Daunt bags, one of them mine (not in the UK).

7. New Kyla Scanlon YouTube series.

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Trump’s lust for hunky dudes goes right back to fascism

The president in a moment of ecstatic contemplation of Sen. Jon Husted’s ass

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To the list of pithy phrases meant to encapsulate politics in a hundred situations — including “All politics is local” and “It’s the economy, stupid” — the Trump era has brought another that may or may not endure, but certainly has been true for the last few years: “Everything is gender.”

The irony is that just as Republican politicians are forcing a wave of closures of gender studies programs at universities, understanding gender has never been more important to American politics than it is now. I would even argue that just as in 2017 Ta-Nehisi Coates called Donald Trump “the first white president” — the first for whom whiteness was the essential organizing principle — we could call the second-term Trump the first drag president. He performs an exaggerated, often surreal version of masculinity, one that his own audience must have trouble following at times.

Lately, that performance has taken what looks on the surface to be a discordant, homoerotic turn. But it isn’t quite homoerotic, because it isn’t erotic. Instead, it falls within a long tradition of fascist aesthetics, clothed in Trump’s allergy to subtlety or subtext.

“I looked at his ass”

Trump has always been interested in the physical appearance of both women and men, which until recently one could put down to his belief that politics is a show that requires casting conventionally attractive people. But in the last year or so — and especially as he campaigns for Republicans ahead of the midterms — he has been talking more and more about handsome men and their bodies.

He has long enjoyed appearing before groups of men he believes embody a physical version of manhood — servicemembers, coal miners, any collection of blue-collar guys — but when he does these days, he’s likely to pick one particularly appealing specimen out and tell the audience what a hunk the man is, sometimes even calling him up to the stage so he can get a close look. “I wanna check him out. Look at the muscles on this guy,” he said about a Coast Guard cadet. “You’re a beautiful guy,” he told a UFC fighter at ringside. “You could be a model!”

Their taut muscles, their firm jaws, their strong hands, all move him to rhapsody. It’s been happening on the campaign trail almost every day, and it reached the level of comedy when he described the journey his eyes took over Sen. Jon Husted’s body, with extra time spent on the senator’s hindquarters:

“I stood right over here, and I examined his ass. I never did that with a man before. I examined his ass, and then I looked at his shoulders. I looked at his feet. I looked at his hand. I looked at his jawline. Stunning.”

A riff on Husted’s hot bod has now been added to Trump’s rally playlist no matter where he is, as though Americans everywhere are keen to hear what he thinks of this obscure Ohio politician’s butt. This was yesterday in North Carolina:

This has been the subject of a good deal of amply justified mockery from liberals, given how important anxious masculinity is to the entire MAGA movement. It has always been deeply ironic that so many conservatives who begin to panic at the mere sight of gayness would consider Trump to be a model of masculinity. This is an obese octogenarian who slathers on makeup every day and spends hours on his hair, enacting a performance of manhood defined by nothing so much as the fact that it is the opposite of what it purports to be. To that, he has now added daily disquisitions on the male form.

Meanwhile, wherever possible Republicans charge their Democratic opponents with being gay, like fifth-grade bullies mocking the smaller kids on the playground. Witness JD Vance, who said this when a supporter shouted “I love you!” at a campaign appearance:

“I love you too, sir,” Vance said. “In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I’m the vice president, not James Talarico.” Or in other words: “No homo!”

The anti-eroticism of fascism

Trump is hardly the only one on the right ogling muscly men. As they grapple with a world in which upper-body strength is no longer the sole determinant of social status, many conservatives have put a new premium on male physical prowess, in ways that seem to pulse with homoeroticism. A couple of years ago, Tucker Carlson put out a short film called “The End of Men,” about how masculinity is supposedly in decline and must be recaptured through things like tanning your testicles (yes, really). In addition to some right-wing conspiracy theories and quack health advice, the film is a deluge of shots of shirtless dudes working out, shirtless dudes wrestling with each other, shirtless dudes shooting guns, and shirtless dudes generally being hot, enough to fill up a dozen gay porn movies.

At least on first glance. But I don’t think Tucker Carlson wants to have sex with the men in his film, any more than Trump wants to bed Jon Husted. I say that because today’s conservative movement vibrates with the echoes of fascism in a hundred ways, including when it confronts gender, and a key part of the fascist aesthetic is that the perfect man is de-sexualized. He is not a sexual being; he is a statue to be honed, gazing at himself for endless hours in the mirror until he has made himself worthy of being gazed at from a distance by others — especially other men.

You can see that in so much of the manosphere today: The influencers posting about their peptide stack and obsessing over their workouts and their jawlines aren’t doing it so they can win the hearts of women, they’re performing for other men. As neo-Nazi troll Nick Fuentes said, “If we’re really being honest, never having a girlfriend, never having sex with a woman really makes you more heterosexual, because honestly, dating women is gay, having sex with women is gay. And having sex with men is gay. Really it’s all gay.”

Unlike Fuentes, the prominent men of MAGA and the manosphere do want to sleep with women, but mostly as a way of outdoing other men. This has long been Trump’s modus operandi; think of how, when he married Marla Maples, he tried to negotiate a deal to have her pose nude in Playboy (she refused). The only reason he would do that is so other men would lust after her, and that would raise his status among them. Everything we know about Trump’s sexual history — including the two dozen women who have publicly accused him of various kinds of sexual misconduct, up to and including rape — is that it is all about domination, violence, and contempt. It’s almost impossible to believe that he ever had a romantic or erotic impulse that wasn’t actually about his own status.

The same is true of so many others in Trump’s orbit, from Pete Hegesth to Robert Kennedy, Jr. obsessing over their testosterone levels (and everyone else’s) and posting videos of themselves working out to demonstrate their strength and virility, oblivious to the fact that it only makes them look pathetic.

Once you realize how anti-erotic the iconography and rhetoric of today’s conservative movement is, you begin to see it everywhere, from “Mar-a-Lago face,” the very grotesqueness of which is its true purpose (since it proves the length of self-mutilation a woman will reach in order to prove her devotion to Trump) to the propaganda endlessly pumped out by the administration. For instance, last year, government accounts began posting a variety of white supremacy-tinged memes, including some featuring fair-haired, square-jawed young men:

That image and others like it were directly evocative of Nazi propaganda imagery in which Hitler’s government promoted the image of the perfect Aryan man. Here, for instance, is “La Force,” created in 1939 by the Nazis’ favorite sculptor, Arno Breker; and a still from Leni Riefenstahl’s film “Olympia,” a celebration of the 1936 Berlin Olympics:

There is nothing erotic about this kind of man; he is meant only to be gazed upon, admired but not desired. And there is Donald Trump standing below, looking up at him in awe, moved almost to tears.

It’s not the ‘60s anymore

For most of my life, it felt that politics consisted of endless rehashings of the cultural conflicts of the 1960s, in which the hippies and the squares faced off again and again. So much of the anger of the right felt like it was the aftereffect that moment in the youth of conservative Boomers, driven by the memory of grinding their teeth as they watched a smoke-filled van heading off for Woodstock, knowing that the longhaired punks in the back were going to get to have sex with those free-thinking girls in peasant skirts, while they were left behind to watch The Lawrence Welk Show with their parents. The conservative men may have mocked the hippie men for being effeminate, but they burned with jealousy over the fact that those hippies had all the fun.

But politics isn’t that anymore, at least not mostly. Today’s right is reenacting the time leading up to World War II, when there was another “masculinity crisis” that the far right capitalized on. Around the world, neo-Nazis and other far-right extremists are creating “Active Clubs” in which men train, spar, read fascist tracts, and admire each other’s bodies.

From the moment Trump began his first presidential race in 2015, it was clear that much of his appeal lay in his ability to take what was implicit and make it explicit, to make subtext into text. What other politicians hinted at, he said outright: Immigrants are scum, liberals are stupid, women should shut up. As one attendee at a Trump rally told Jeff Sharlet in 2016, “We all want to punch somebody in the face, and he says it for us.”

And now, Trump has removed the subtlety from the fascist admiration for the male body. Will other Republican politicians, Fox News hosts, and far-right podcasters now start paying public tribute to each other’s asses? Will MAGA acolytes say “We all want to run our hands over a strong man’s body, and he says it for us”? That may be going too far. But in an age when everything is gender, almost nothing should surprise us.

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Subtropical Storm Josephine Impacts the Eastern Seaboard; Pacific Storm Impacting the Southwest U.S.

How to Make the Smithsonian Detrumpified

I like this detrumpification proposal from Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin (boldface mine):

President Donald Trump may get a show at the Smithsonian, though not as he might have hoped. On October 6, representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland introduced a bill directing officials from the Smithsonian Institution to collect and preserve “artifacts related to the President’s narcissistic self-worship.”

These artifacts include the giant banners bearing Trump’s face that have hung outside several federal agency buildings over the past 21 months, and signs the President plans to place outside of Smithsonian museums warning visitors about the “ideological capture” of the institution.

“The Preserving and Remembering the History of Trump and other Tyrants Act” is, in part, a response to July’s executive order 14416, which was titled ‘‘Restoring Trust in the Smithsonian Institution.’’

The goal of the six-page bill is to establish a permanent museum exhibition that presents “the rise of governmental propaganda, corruption, and authoritarianism due to the two Presidencies of Donald J. Trump.” In addition to artifacts of the state, the bill directs the secretary of the Smithsonian Institution to collect relevant photo, film, and media, as well as the personal narratives of American citizens “who resisted and opposed authoritarianism.”

The exhibition would place the Trump presidency in the context of earlier periods of American political extremism. These include the Know Nothingism of the mid-19th century, the Lost Cause myth that gained popularity at the turn of the 20th century, and McCarthyism of the 1950s. The bill also proposed a sign of its own to accompany the permanent exhibition. It would read: “Donald Trump ordered the installation of these signs without any Congressional authorization as required by the Constitution. The 119th Congress passed legislation authorizing this exhibit.” In a Republican controlled house, the bill is unlikely to pass.

(You can find the actual legislation here).

While it won’t pass this term, Democrats should pass it next term, and if that fails make it part of a reconciliation bill.

Solstar provides Wi-Fi connectivity for NASA proximity operations demonstration

SAN FRANCISCO – Wi-Fi technology from Solstar Space connected NASA’s R5-S10 cubesat with Momentus’ Vigoride-7 orbital service vehicle during proximity operations and relayed data to NASA’s Johnson Space Center, Solstar […]

The post Solstar provides Wi-Fi connectivity for NASA proximity operations demonstration appeared first on SpaceNews.

Summer of Quantum: Building momentum for space-based QKD

Glasgow, UK | 21 October 2026 – The pace of development in quantum technologies continues to accelerate, and over the past few months, space engineering company Craft Prospect has been […]

The post Summer of Quantum: Building momentum for space-based QKD appeared first on SpaceNews.

AnySignal to Deliver Space-to-Earth Communications for Three Reflect Orbital Missions

LOS ANGELES — October 20, 2026 AnySignal, a leading provider of software-defined radios and space-based networking, today announced an agreement with Reflect Orbital to deliver space-to-earth communications for Reflect Orbital’s inaugural […]

The post AnySignal to Deliver Space-to-Earth Communications for Three Reflect Orbital Missions appeared first on SpaceNews.

Vulnerability

Other numbers are largely unaffected, but anyone using '4' for their certificate key is urged to upgrade to '5'.

When it started to burn

Photo of a subway station with people and makeshift sleeping areas on the platform, white columns and a distant tunnel.

Horrific violence, enduring terror and ceaseless solidarity: four years of war through the eyes of Ukrainian civilians

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

I am afraid

So … I dunno.

I keep reading about Democratic midterm optimism. I keep reading about the blue wave. I keep reading about the Democrats taking back the House and, perhaps, the Senate.

I keep reading it and reading it and reading it, and then this shit happens …

We have a president who believes there is winning and only winning. We have a president who doesn’t care for or understand democracy. We have a president utterly disinterested in Thomas Jefferson and George Washington; in Susan B. Anthony and Martin Luther King; in battles for independence and battles to defeat global tyranny.

We have a president who masturbates to himself and his lust for power.

And he will not just allow for defeat.

Seriously, if the Democrats aren’t aware by now—WAKE THE FUCK UP. This is the moment. It kicked into high gear yesterday, with an assault on California and voting; with some bullshit garbage about “voting crimes.” We are here, in the heat of what will be legitimate awfulness. A president’s dogged need to reign. A justice department beneath his thumb. A political party terrified of his wrath, and happy to curl up and coo.

I don’t know how this ends.

I am scared how this ends.

I suspect, come post-election day, we will need to take to the streets and take to the courts, for the two or three remaining threads of democracy are being torn from the garment. We are, as of now, pro-Putin, anti-voting, pro-war and watching helplessly as a madman focusses on a new D.C. golf course.

I am resolved to fight.

But, again, I am scared.

PS: …

October 20, 2026

A blockbuster story in the Wall Street Journal tonight by Alexander Ward, Natalie Andrews, and Josh Dawsey says that it was billionaire Elon Musk who ordered Space X to slow down its service in Ukraine, rendering some drones that stopped incoming missiles and others aimed at Russian targets useless.

The reporters say it is unclear if Musk operated without input from White House officials. Some of their sources say he did; others say he coordinated with multiple senior officials, including Trump.

According to Jennifer Jacobs of CBS News, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared to try to dismiss the slowdown as a business decision: “We haven’t pulled anything back. There are terms of service that ultimately need to be complied to. And that’s where Starlink has the option to make those decisions, but nothing’s changed from our view. We haven’t made any directives or anything like that.” He added: “[W]e wish the Ukrainians, obviously, success.”

After the slowdown caused a public uproar, the Wall Street Journal reporters write, representatives from SpaceX, the parent company of Starlink, called the White House to coordinate messaging to say that Starlink and the administration had agreed to the slowdown ahead of time.

Musk’s decision to change the course of a war with “a seeming flick of a switch,” taking it upon himself, with or without the complicity of White House officials, to reverse the foreign policy of the United States of America for the benefit of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, is a stunning assumption of power reminiscent of Revolutionary War general Benedict Arnold’s weakening of the Americans’ defenses and draining of supplies at the strategic fort at West Point to enable the British to capture it before he was discovered and defected to the British Army.

Another lens through which to see this story is the apparent eagerness of White House officials to turn Musk into a scapegoat for a decision they were happy to endorse until it blew up in their faces.

A New York Times story by Tyler Pager suggests a different leak from the White House. Pager relates that billionaire Venezuelan banker Julio Herrera Velutini wanted a presidential pardon. His family hired Alina Habba, a former Trump lawyer who at the time was working at the Justice Department, as general counsel at a company, Concord Partners, that was launched by Herrera’s daughter, has no public profile and whose business is unclear. Habba’s contract is worth more than $50 million over four years. Just weeks after she began to work for Concord Partners, Trump granted Herrera a full pardon.

Habba denied having any role in the pardon and refused to describe her work for Concord Partners, but Pager reports that “[p]eople familiar with Ms. Habba’s contract said they believed that she was brought in to help with Mr. Herrera’s push for a pardon and expressed surprise at the scale of the compensation.”

Thomas Frank at Politico received a recording of a speech Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Cameron Hamilton gave today at a private conference in Little Rock, Arkansas, in which he said the Trump administration plans to shift responsibility for disaster management to the states.

Hamilton’s speech built on an internal memo from October 15, which Frank also covered, that said the administration seeks to turn disaster response over to local and state government, thereby “reducing federal dependency.” “Federal dollars should be building greater capability, not creating greater dependency,” Hamilton said today.

Today Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan of the New York Times reported that sources have told them that Trump wants to move the press out of the White House and that Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency who has pushed to go after Trump’s political opponents for mortgage fraud, is one of those pushing the idea of restoring the press briefing room to its original form as a swimming pool. Another is Boris Epshteyn, the lawyer who has pushed the lawsuits the president has launched against journalists.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had the pool installed because swimming helped strengthen his muscles, weakened by polio. President Richard Nixon had it covered over and turned into a briefing room to accommodate the growing White House Press Corps. Haberman and Swan note that forcing the press out of the White House would be “highly symbolic. The proximity of the media to the seat of U.S. executive power has long been an acknowledgment of the importance of a free press in a constitutional democracy.”

These four stories, just from today, encapsulate the administration’s betrayal of U.S. national security, its corruption, and its disregard for the welfare of Americans. It’s not a great record to run on, and the leaks from the administration show that at least some insiders are aware of how unpopular and dangerous that record is.

And so, Trump is pulling out all the stops to keep Democrats from winning control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.

In what appears to be a transparent attempt to shore up wavering support from a constituency that until recently was one of his most loyal, Trump announced yesterday that the Agriculture Department would provide $8 billion to help farmers slammed by the high cost of diesel. Kevin Draper of the New York Times reported that rates of payment will be announced next month, and the money will come no sooner than late November or early December, well after the election.

Trump announced the prospective payments at an event for Republican senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, whose reelection campaign is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton. Meredith Lee Hill and Grace Yarrow of Politico report that Marshall had asked Trump for the program. Republicans like Marshall are hoping Trump’s announcement will help stop the flow of voters away from the Republicans and toward the Democrats in the farm states. Representative Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, whose reelection is uncertain given the strength of his Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke, said: “This will go a long way to making sure the folks that feed us have it a bit easier when they most need it.”

But Trump officials told Hill and Yarrow that the fund Trump intends to use for the payments—a taxpayer-funded account in the Department of Agriculture—doesn’t have enough money in it to make the payments. Either Congress will have to add more to it, or the administration will have to take the money from a different program.

Top agricultural groups say farmers need at least $50 billion to make up for the impact of tariffs, disasters caused by weather, and the high cost of fuel and fertilizer caused by the war on Iran.

Trump told the Kansas audience at the announcement that if they reelect Marshall, he will also allow year-round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol, a big deal for corn growers. But, he added, “if Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it.”

Still, Democrats are not letting the White House change the subject from its betrayal of Ukraine. This morning, Representative Jim Himes (D-CT) posted a video, saying he had just gotten off a phone call with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky and a number of other representatives and senators.

“I was just appalled by what I learned,” he said. “The president said that Starlink—Starshield—has been throttled so that the Ukrainians can no longer intercept most of the Russian drones that are wreaking havoc at schools and hospitals and civilian centers. He said that they are completely out of missile interceptors. And make no mistake: that’s our fault.

“More significantly, that’s the fault of Donald Trump, who has now shown his hand as an ally of Vladimir Putin and Elon Musk. We can’t really get straight answers about whether it’s Elon or Donald Trump, but at the end of the day, because they throttled Starlink, Ukrainians are dying.

“In the call, I made the point to some of my colleagues, which is, it’s time to accept that Donald Trump is rooting for a Russian victory here. And that the Congress needs to step up and actually pass veto-proof legislation. Enough dilly-dallying with the secretary of state in the Oval Office. We need to step up and pass veto-proof legislation that will provide assistance, military aid, and access to Starlink for the Ukrainians. That’s the only way this is gonna get done, and it needs to get done now.

“Ukrainians are dying, and Putin will win this if Donald Trump has his way,” Himes said, “[W]e’re going to act as a Congress and override this president’s desire to see Vladimir Putin win.”

—

Notes:

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-starlink-elon-musk-trump-dbc49193

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-ukraine-spacex-starshield-trump-administration/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/us/politics/julio-herrera-pardon-alina-habba.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/20/fema-states-disasters-exclusive-energy-environment-01128120

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/16/fema-state-reliance-federal-aid-01124455

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/us/politics/trump-white-house-media.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/business/trump-farmer-bailout.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/20/trump-farmers-payments-gop-midterms-01128165

Bluesky:

plaintanjane.bsky.social/post/3mybobi56m22z

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Politics Chat, October 20, 2026

Watch today’s live recording here.

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Two Observations

To read this letter, click here:

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The International Festival of Economics, in Turin, October 22-25

 The International Festival of Economics will take place in Turin from 22 to 25 October 2026.  I hope to be there to participate in all but the first day. (I'll be speaking on Saturday.)

 The International Festival of Economics 2026

"Following the success of its first four editions, respectively dedicated to The New Generations of the World (2025), Who Owns Knowledge (2024), Rethinking Globalization (2023), and Merit, Diversity and Social Justice (2022), the Festival will return from October 22 to 25 in some of the most beautiful venues in the center of the Piedmontese capital with a new edition titled Saving the Welfare State. In Turin, some of the most authoritative economists and international experts working at the forefront of research on this topic will meet, together with scholars from many other disciplines.

The International Festival of Economics is curated by Editori Laterza and Collegio Carlo Alberto - Torino Local Committee (TOLC) under the scientific direction of Tito Boeri. The event is promoted by the TOLC, which brings together the Piedmont Region, the City of Turin, Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, Fondazione CRT, the University of Turin, the Polytechnic University of Turin, the Turin Chamber of Commerce, Unioncamere Piemonte, Unione Industriali Torino, and Legacoop, coordinated by the Fondazione Collegio Carlo Alberto.

Collegio Carlo Alberto will be one of the festival's venues, hosting 29 events.

Visit the Festival Website"
 

One reason I do not love AI writing, or even AI-assisted writing

Of course I read to absorb the content, but I also am in a position to meet many authors, have contact with them, and spend time with them.  So reading anything also is a potential option on those future connections. But when I am reading an AI piece, the value of that option comes pretty close to zero.

The post One reason I do not love AI writing, or even AI-assisted writing appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The Causal Effect of Foreign Ideas on U.S. Innovation

Globalization is once again better than many people realize:

We study the role of foreign ideas in U.S. innovation by constructing a directed “genealogy” of technologies from the full text of 13 million patents filed between 1887 and 2024. By tracing which earlier technologies appear in the founding patents of new ones, we recover a large-scale input–output network of technological recombination that identifies the foreign technologies that serve as inputs into innovation in the United States. We report four main findings. First, foreign ideas are pervasive: 54% of U.S. technologies build on at least one foreign input, and the most fertile U.S. technologies rely on foreign inputs most heavily. Second, foreign ideas have large causal effects on U.S. innovation. Using the historical settlement of migrants as a source of exogenous variation in local ancestry, we show that U.S. counties more exposed to knowledge from a given foreign country absorb substantially more technologies from that country and, in turn, invent significantly more U.S. technologies building on them. Third, foreign ideas shape not only the level but also the direction of technical change: U.S. counties are far more likely to pioneer the specific technologies whose foreign inputs are already in their local idea stock, and the changing origins of foreign ideas accompany the shift of American innovation from its historical heartland toward the coasts. Fourth, these effects leave a lasting imprint on local labor markets: decades later, counties that absorbed more of an origin’s ideas host more jobs working with those ideas, and even more work with the U.S. technologies descended from them.

Here is the full paper by Tarek Alexander Hassan, Aakash Kalyani & Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle.

The post The Causal Effect of Foreign Ideas on U.S. Innovation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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This Week on Polltober: Are We Seeing the Midterms Clearly?

On this week’s episode of The Polltober Show, Kate and Josh discuss whether the story of the midterms can be trusted in this week’s grab bag episode.

If you want your question answered next week, drop it in the YouTube comments on the latest episode of the TPM Show or the Polltober Show itself. And don’t forget to subscribe to our YouTube page for all of our Polltober episodes, livestreams, and other original TPM content!

Psst, you’re a TPM member, right? You asked, and we answered: we’re launching a members-only podcast feed where you can listen to episodes of Polltober! Head to your account settings page to find the special RSS feed that you can add to your preferred podcast player and enjoy!

It’s the AI Economy … We’re Just Living In It

I corresponded with a TPM Reader from the tech world recently who marveled at the political salience of data centers when data centers have been around since the late 90s. Many data centers today are orders of magnitude larger than their pre-AI relatives, gobbling up much more energy, making more noise and physical pollution. But he noted that the bulk of them aren’t nearly that large. These points each have some truth to them, though I think it understates the real-world impact of hyperscaler data centers. And, as I’ve noted, a lot of our collective social angst about data centers and AI is really focused on oligarchy — the way that it appears to be the tech oligarchs’ world and we’re just living in it. The ability for town and county councils to say no to data centers is irresistible precisely because it’s the one case where democratic self-government is in a position to say “NO!” and that’s so contrary to all our other experience these days. But there’s an entirely different vantage point on this question I want to focus on.

The impact of particular data centers in particular places is one issue. But the macro-story is even bigger and more jarring. Axios has a piece this morning about how the housing sector is getting hammered by the hyperscaler AI boom, both buildings and buyers. And as you may have heard the lack of affordable housing is a rather pressing issue in American society today. This applies to everything from inflation/scarcity of the physical building blocks that are used for building housing to the scarcity of capital to fund it. If that sounds overstated look at this chart from a study we discussed late last month and which got written up in various publications.

I keep coming back to this graph because it’s so eye-popping, almost impossible to believe. As you see in the legend, the blue line is data centers. The grey line is everything else. Everything else. Commercial properties. Rental properties. Single family homes. Multiple family homes. Pick your preferred flavor of development, NIMBY, YIMBY, urban, rural, it’s in there. You basically have rapid data center growth and everything else contracting.

Many of us first saw the signs of the hyperscale AI boom when we noticed that computer memory had suddenly gotten wildly more expensive, after decades when the price of memory fell as though under the force of gravity year after year. Some forms of computer memory that go into personal computers have quadrupled in cost over the last 18 months because AI’s demand for all forms of computer chips is so great. That’s now spread to the entire economy. This is about more than the AI boom itself. It’s about who the economy is working for. In a general sense, it’s probably a safe bet at any time that the economy is largely working for people with capital. But in an economy driven by consumption, that at least ties back significantly to things people want. The simple reality here is that the AI boom is making huge amounts of money for people at the top of the economic ladder (almost entirely through the equities market) while choking off investment in everything else. Housing and commercial construction are getting crowded out. And this is, as we noted above, at a time when the cost of housing is a huge political issue and one that can only be fundamentally addressed through increasing the supply of housing. We have this running debate about why people are so down on the economy when economic indicators either aren’t that bad or are really good. This is pretty clearly the answer.

You can see all of that through this prism. The interplay between data centers and housing construction captures the larger story in the most powerful and elemental way. There’s nothing new about the economy not being run on the behalf of the have nots or those struggling on the lower rungs of the economy. But this is something different. It’s an economy being run pretty indifferent to the needs or, more importantly, even the consumption desires of the middle and even many of the upper rungs of the economy. The simple reality we see here is that a tiny number of people — dozens at most, mostly in Silicon Valley — are able to drive the direction of the whole economy and in a way that at least in the short-term (the long term probably too, but I’m just talking about what we factually observe right now) is straining everyone else. They’re creating a lot of paper wealth for other people too. But again, that’s heavily weighted to the highest strata of the economic ladder.

It remains difficult to overstate the degree to which the entire private economy has been disfigured by the ongoing AI boom.

Barack Obama on the Trump Administration’s Intimidation Campaign Against Congresswoman Ilhan Omar

Barack Obama, in a 430-word essay:

It is a basic principle of American democracy that the government can’t selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say. But that’s exactly what the Trump Administration is doing to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. [...]

The fact that any president, or any administration, is willing to engage in such transparent efforts to intimidate someone should outrage all Americans, regardless of how they feel about Congresswoman Omar’s political views. Because if this becomes the new normal, there’s no reason to believe it will stop with her — or that future presidents, in either party, won’t do the same.

Thoughtful, sharp, and eloquent as ever.

But Obama posted this essay on X, which, I have been told in the past week, shows that he in fact is a Nazi sympathizer, a fascist, a pedophile, and unconcerned about racism. As surprised as I was to learn those things about myself, I’m equally surprised to learn them about President Obama, whom I heretofore considered a thoughtful statesman and moral compass.

Either that, or, Threads, Bluesky, and Mastodon have relegated themselves into irrelevance by allowing their discourse to be dominated by a fringe of unhinged kooks who want to be angry and want everyone else to be angry.

 ★ 

Tuesday 20 October 1663

Up and to the office, where we sat; and at noon Sir G. Carteret, Sir J. Minnes, and I to dinner to my Lord Mayor’s, being invited, where was the Farmers of the Customes, my Lord Chancellor’s three sons, and other great and much company, and a very great noble dinner, as this Mayor —[Sir John Robinson.]— is good for nothing else. No extraordinary discourse of any thing, every man being intent upon his dinner, and myself willing to have drunk some wine to have warmed my belly, but I did for my oath’s sake willingly refrain it, but am so well pleased and satisfied afterwards thereby, for it do keep me always in so good a frame of mind that I hope I shall not ever leave this practice. Thence home, and took my wife by coach to White Hall, and she set down at my Lord’s lodgings, I to a Committee of Tangier, and thence with her homeward, calling at several places by the way. Among others at Paul’s Churchyard, and while I was in Kirton’s shop, a fellow came to offer kindness or force to my wife in the coach, but she refusing, he went away, after the coachman had struck him, and he the coachman. So I being called, went thither, and the fellow coming out again of a shop, I did give him a good cuff or two on the chops, and seeing him not oppose me, I did give him another; at last found him drunk, of which I was glad, and so left him, and home, and so to my office awhile, and so home to supper and to bed.

This evening, at my Lord’s lodgings, Mrs. Sarah talking with my wife and I how the Queen do, and how the King tends her being so ill. She tells us that the Queen’s sickness is the spotted fever; that she was as full of the spots as a leopard which is very strange that it should be no more known; but perhaps it is not so. And that the King do seem to take it much to heart, for that he hath wept before her; but, for all that; that he hath not missed one night since she was sick, of supping with my Lady Castlemaine; which I believe is true, for she [Sarah] says that her husband hath dressed the suppers every night; and I confess I saw him myself coming through the street dressing of a great supper to-night, which Sarah says is also for the King and her; which is a very strange thing.

Read the annotations

Possible new Cellebrite iPhone Radio Zero-Day

Justin.sh is reporting on a confidential Cellebrite document that has been leaked to him:

Cellebrite calls it Advanced Unlocks (AU from here on), not to be confused with the “advanced unlocking services” they’ve marketed for years. A press release from earlier this year confirms AU is a new product for 2026.

[…]

According to Cellebrite, AU:

  • is a “next-generation AFU vector that is more resilient to Apple’s OS changes”
  • works with Stolen Device Protection enabled, which tightens USB restrictions
  • is enabled by a dedicated appliance with a stated range (!) of about 8 meters.

AU = Advanced Unlocks, Cellebrite’s term. AFU = after first unlock.

SpaceX scrubs launch of 27 Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg SFB

A Falcon 9 rocket stands ready for launch from Vandenberg in this file photo. Image: SpaceX.

Update Oct. 21, 7:07 p.m. EDT (2307 UTC): SpaceX adjusted the T-0 liftoff time.

Update Oct. 20, 7:06 p.m. EDT (2306 UTC): SpaceX scrubbed the launch, targets Wednesday afternoon.

SpaceX was set to launch a batch of 27 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California Tuesday afternoon, but ran into what appears to have been a technical issue that wasn’t surmountable during their launch window.

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from the West Coast is now scheduled during a window that opens at 2:45 p.m. PDT (5:45 p.m. EDT / 2145 UTC) on Thursday, Oct. 22. The rocket will fly on a southeasterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about 30 minutes prior to liftoff.

SpaceX will launch the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1063. This will be its 36th flight and will become the second booster to reach three dozen flights.

Roughly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1063 will target a landing on the droneship, A Shortfall of Gravitas. If successful, this will be the 229th landing on this vessel and the 673rd Falcon booster landing to date.

Starlink growth

During a third quarter earnings call on Tuesday afternoon, hours before the original launch time on Oct. 20, SpaceX Chief Operating Officer (COO) and President Gwynne Shotwell noted that the company added 1.6 million customers in that three-month period. She said the service was active across 174 markets globally.

“This number does not include additional hundreds of thousands of enterprise subscribers and aviation customers,” Shotwell said during the earnings call. “We remain incredibly inspired by the impact of Starlink on communities around the world, including providing service to hundreds of thousands of students and teachers in schools globally, as well as for emergency response during natural disasters.”

In a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), SpaceX noted that it closed the third quarter with more than 11,100 Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit, which includes the 26 Starlink Version 3 satellites launched during Starship Flight 14.

“The Starship launcher itself will provide additional capacity across markets and enable new sales in high-demand areas,” Shotwell said. “We expect the market for communications to grow far beyond just human communication that we traditionally think about. Connecting cars, robots, and the adoption of super intelligence (artificial intelligence) will increase communication demands not in percentages, but in orders of magnitudes.”

The SEC filing stated that connectivity revenue for the quarter was $5.2 billion, an increase of 22 percent from the previous quarter.

“Total costs and expenses for the Connectivity segment were up $974 million year-over-year, driven primarily by our growing satellite constellation, Starlink Kit deliveries, and marketing initiatives to support revenue growth,” SpaceX said in its filing.

Bret Johnsen, SpaceX Chief Financial Officer (CFO), said that the company’s ability to increase the flight rate of orbital Starship missions is critical for future revenue growth on the Starlink satellite internet side of their business.

“Looking ahead, the satellite roadmap is a key driver of both the capacity and capability of our connectivity segment,” Johnsen said. “Through the end of the year and throughout 2027, we expect to deploy [Starlink] V3 broadband satellites in meaningful volume, with each Starship launch ramping towards a payload that delivers over 20 times the downlink capacity of the current generation of Falcon 9 launches today.

“In parallel, we will ramp Starlink Mobile V2 satellites on Starship, starting in 2027, and leverage our newly enhanced wireless spectrum portfolio to expand our direct-to-device and become a major mobile carrier, as Gwynne mentioned, in the United States.”

SpaceX founder Elon Musk said the next Starship launch is anticipated in November and is planned to include a catch attempt of both the Ship and Super Heavy booster. The company is seeking approval for this from the Federal Aviation Administration.

The late Perry Mehrling explained the hierarchy of money

The course for par

Links 10/20/26

Links for you. Science:

A near-ubiquitous plasmid characterises Second Pandemic Yersinia pestis
Computers Made of Human Brain Tissue Identify Braille Letters In Breakthrough
Eating London’s sewage vegetables
This Might Be the Earliest Known Spear Murder In Earth’s History
The US military’s race to make fake blood
Advancing subseasonal forecasting with machine learning
What Counts as Impact? Bean-counting published papers and impact factors was always a flawed proxy. Generative AI made it much worse.

Other:

A.I. Is Eating the World. When it comes to safety, IBM’s David Cox believes A.I. should be designed and treated more like software: less is more, with controls baked into the design. (gift link)
D.C. General Election Guide: What to Know Before Nov. 3 (make sure you understand the At-Large seat voting issues)
Maybe There Was an Egg Cartel After All
Who really controls Greg Abbott? The Texas governor’s war on public schools is bankrolled by donors who want a Christian state
Cabinet of Curiosities: Richard Cooke takes on Wikipedia
The real reason MAGA fears Ilhan Omar
Power to the People: The fight for publicly owned utilities
Democrats have discovered the key to midterm victory
The Opioid Crisis Looms Over Michigan’s Senate Race
All Too Real
The Senate is one ordinary polling miss from a blowout
The Street Art of Rome
The Men Who Regret Trump—But Won’t Vote Blue
Data Centers Are War Targets Now
Vive
Nidal Hasan’s Public Execution Is Off, But Propagandists Are Still Using Him as a Martyr
Trump’s Crude Bargain: Facing a midterm backlash over Iran-fueled inflation, Trump is again accused of sacrificing Ukraine’s interests for electoral advantage—this time by granting Putin valuable sanctions relief in exchange for a largely symbolic diesel deal
Can a walkable downtown thrive in the heart of suburban sprawl? Utah City is putting that to the test.
Finally, Democrats Are Ready to Go Low
Video Game Reverse Engineering Community Shuts Down Because AI Has Made It Too Easy
Hollywood Is About to Have a Bot Fraud Problem
America’s $10tn AI infrastructure boom is starting to fray
Is It True That If You’re Explaining, You’re Losing?
The College Closure Crisis Is Spreading Beyond Campus
Meta Says Claude AI Tool Triggered No Kings Instagram Suspension
Grifts Inside Grifts
Trump Hides IRS Report on How His Tax Cuts Have Ruined America
Donald Trump is Politically Bankrupt. Be Very Afraid
Even Republicans Are Waking Up to Trump’s Corruption
Do You Really Own Your Home? A Tax Revolt Says No.

The Traitor in Chief

Russian missile attack kills one, wounds 112 in Ukraine's Kharkiv,  officials say | Reuters

Trump says Russia is being “fine” on Ukraine

Writing in the New York Times, David Sanger highlights the extent to which Donald Trump is going all out to support Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine:

President Trump’s intensifying effort in the past few weeks to rehabilitate Russia and usher President Vladimir V. Putin back into diplomatic society is remarkable for its speed, its characterization of Mr. Zelensky as the primary obstacle to peace, and its brazen denial that Russia is continuing the war that Mr. Trump says he is trying to end.

“Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine,” Mr. Trump said on Monday, speaking to reporters outside the White House as he left for a campaign rally. “They haven’t been doing much,” he said, making no mention of the Russian missiles and jet-powered drones that have been targeting apartment buildings in Kyiv and Ukraine’s surviving electricity grid.

In contrast, he said, “We’ve given a lot to Ukraine. They’ve given nothing to us. Remember that.”

As Sanger notes, Trump’s support for Putin is unique in American history. Previous administrations have made deals with erstwhile adversaries, as Nixon did with China, and given up on support for failing allies, as the U.S. did in Vietnam and Afghanistan. But never before have we outright switched sides, let alone supported an aggressor while vilifying that aggressor’s victim.

What makes Trump’s support for Putin even more remarkable is that Russia has, by many accounts, been actively aiding Iran against America in the war Trump started. Who says so? Well, among others, Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. And the aid goes beyond intelligence sharing that has helped Iran target U.S. forces. Russia has also reportedly been sending Iran explosives and weapons components.

What would Republicans be saying if a Democratic president were supporting a foreign dictator even as that dictator was helping another nation kill American troops? They would be crying “treason.” But this is all apparently “fine” with Trump.

What’s going on here? It’s important to understand that — as Phillips O’Brien documents — Trump hasn’t “pivoted” away from Ukraine toward Russia. He has been a Putin supporter all along.

Thus when Trump says that “We’ve given a lot to Ukraine,” who, exactly, does he mean by “we”? He cut off all economic and military aid to Ukraine as soon as he took office. Here’s total support for Ukraine, by country, since January 2025:

True, the U.S. continued to share military intelligence with Ukraine while allowing Ukraine to use Elon Musk’s Starshield and permitting European nations to transfer some U.S. weapons to Ukraine. But these actions cost America nothing. The most you can say is that until recently Trump shied away from actively sabotaging Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

And now even that restraint is gone. According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.S. intelligence sharing was blocked “for some period of time,” although it appears to have resumed for now. Ukraine’s access to Starshield has been limited. And the Washington Post reports that the U.S. has been holding up European transfers of Patriot missiles to Ukraine.

There are two questions here. First, why does Trump love Putin and hate Zelenskyy? Second, why has he ripped off the mask and gone full pro-Russia in the past few weeks?

On the first question, Zelenskyy gave a blunt answer in a recent interview with the Financial Times: Trump, he asserted, has an instinctive affinity for autocrats and the super wealthy: “He speaks about it openly that he loves such people and he respects such people.” That’s clearly right.

I would add three points. First, Trump and his inner circle don’t just love autocrats. They hate democracy and rule of law — which means that they hate America and American values.

Second, Putin-worship was widespread on the authoritarian right even before Trump entered the picture, with many celebrating Russia’s anti-wokeness and perceived masculinity. Remarkably, the valorization of Russia’s supposed toughness has survived despite Russia’s repeated military humiliations. So Trump has been following a well-trodden path.

Finally, whatever else you may say about Zelenskyy, he’s a genuine hero, who showed great personal courage by staying in Kyiv when Russia invaded. And Trump surely resents the fact that Zelenskyy is everything he is not.

The second question is, why now? Why has Trump chosen this moment to switch from covert, deniable support for Putin to overtly, explicitly taking Russia’s side?

As I suggested yesterday, the answer lies precisely in Trump’s collapsing support at home. Nothing he does now is likely to avert Republican catastrophe in the midterms. Republican politicians have been going out of their way to avoid being seen with him on the campaign trail. Trump officials are already lawyering up in preparation for the probes a Democratic Congress will launch.

At this point, then, Trump effectively has nothing left to lose on the political front — and his political bankruptcy has freed him to become his worst self, indulging himself by doing what he always wanted to do — which includes supporting corrupt, murderous dictators.

And there will be much more of this to come. Trump can’t and won’t make America great again. But he can betray everything America stands for, and he’s doing it as we speak.

MUSICAL CODA

Trump and Putin?

Battle Drones - a vibe coded RTS with audio-based multiplayer

My latest vibe coded game experiment is a Command & Conquer style RTS (Real Time Strategy) game called Battle Drones (play it here). Unlike my previous experiments, this one is actually fun to play. I'm somewhat embarrassed to admit that I got there by telling Claude to "Make it a LOT more fun". It also supports multiplayer between nearby devices using audio to synchronize game state! Here's what I've built so far, and some of the things I learned along the way.

Battle Drones

My initial goal was to build an RTS game I could play on my phone, in the style of Command & Conquer. I have fond memories of the 1995 original (I liked Red Alert too) and wanted to recapture a little bit of the magic.

After 12 major iterations (and 321 commits by coding agents, mainly Claude Code) I now have a browser-based game that works on mobile and desktop, has multiple play modes, several maps (including a random map generator) and even supports multiplayer for two devices within microphone range of each other. (Update: also online multiplayer; the audio multiplayer induced headaches!)

Here's a video demo of Battle Drones running in a desktop browser:

Features so far include:

  • 9 buildings, 7 ground vehicles, 6 aerial vehicles, 3 infantry units - all 3D models, which you can browse here
  • Fog of war
  • Different weapons are needed to target aerial or ground vehicles
  • Six maps, across five biomes - temperate, desert, arctic, volcanic, tropical
  • A random map generator
  • Skirmish mode - red vs. blue on a rotationally symmetrical map
  • Last Stand mode - one player holds out against as many waves of enemies as possible
  • Area effect weapons: Barrage, EMP, Drop Pod, Sky Hammer
  • Crate drops with bonus resources
  • In-game music that responds to events - it gets more intense as fighting breaks out
  • Different in-game AI personalities (Balanced, Rush, Air Swarm, Boom, Skyforce, Ironclad)
  • AI vs. AI mode, to watch those personalities play each other
  • The Goliath - a giant stomping mech with laser eyes and arm cannons and the ability to establish a new base
  • Mutators that add extra rules or twists
  • A "Daily Op" challenge
  • Ranks and achievements (Medals)
  • Agent vs. Agent mode where two LLMs can play Battle Drones against each other
  • A multiplayer mode based on two nearby phones communicating via audio messages, an extension of my earlier experiment with Chirp Pong

How I built this

Battle Drones is heavily vibe coded - I've reviewed almost none of the code, and it's built in a language (TypeScript) that I've hardly used myself. I've playtested it quite a bit though, and it's been through a large number of iterations since I started the project.

Here's a rough history of the project so far, including key prompts and links to transcripts.

v1: the initial prototype

I started out with Claude Fable 5 back in July:

We are going to build a mobile friendly RTS game - command and conquer style - called Battle Drones, in which two armies of drones (both flying and ground-based) battle for territory and resources

Let's start with a MVP design, ask me some questions

Here's a shared transcript. I'd given Claude Code for Web an environment variable with an OpenAI API key and told it to use the OpenAI Image Generation API for assets, which got me some basic sprites.

You can try v1 here - it looked like this:

Game screen. Down the right are text icons to build Fab, Airpad, Turret, Harv, Sting, Flak, Scout, Wasp, Raptor. There is a blocky fog of war on a 2D battlefield. There are some gems, an HQ building being attacked by badly rendered tanks, and some blue vehicles dotted around. It's not very visually impressive but it does look like a basic RTS.

It's recognizable as an RTS, has building mechanics and the ability to select and direct units, and a basic AI to play against.

This first version was barely a proof of concept, and it wasn't any fun to play.

Claude used the Phaser 2D game framework for these early versions. I didn't even realize this until several iterations later!

v2: full sprites

The second version (try v2 here) added sprites for all of the vehicles and the "AI vs. AI" mode, so I could watch the game playing without having to directly control it myself.

Claude proved reasonably competent at prompting OpenAI's image models to generate sprites. You can browse the v2 sprites in the public/assets/sprites folder.

Four flying units, three turrets, a harvester and an airpad all have proper sprites now. The scrap field has a new design which doesn't look great but is at least using a graphic.

v3: varied terrain

It still wasn't much fun, and the graphics were boring. It was now October, and I had upgraded to Claude Opus 5.5. I told it:

Massively improve this game. Make the graphics and gameplay better (keep it mobile friendly). Render new graphics using the latest OpenAI GPT image API (lookup details) with the API key in the environment variable. Add new unit types and balance the gameplay better. Also add new buildings and better, more varied terrain.

This resulted in five new maps with generated background tiles in a variety of styles, visible here. Opus also regenerated the sprites, making them much more visually appealing. You can try v3 here - it looks like this:

The map is now an ice map with snow and ice and broken ice - it looks really good. The vehicles and buildings have all had a cosmetic upgrade too. This is starting to look like a real game.

This is starting to feel like a real game! It still wasn't very fun to play though - I found myself getting bored pretty quickly.

v4: the fun update

So far my Battle Drones experiment was confirming my previous belief that coding agents can build a thing that looks like a game but can't actually make something that's genuinely compelling to play.

I shared this theory with someone over dinner, and then thought to myself that I should give the models a proper chance to prove me wrong. I prompted Opus 5.5 on my phone:

This game isn't fun enough yet. Make it a LOT more fun.

This time I was running in Ultracode mode, where Claude Code (in this case Claude Code for Web) runs "dynamic workflows", described in their docs as:

A dynamic workflow is a JavaScript script that orchestrates many subagents at once.

This kicked off many hours of work. I started it in the evening and didn't get a playable result back until late into the next morning. But the results were spectacular.

You can try v4 here - it looks like this:

The lava map. Uplink satellites are being taken, crystals look better, Elite text is shown above a unit, there is an arrow marked Fight to jump to a fight, the AI vs AI mode has a speed controller - plenty of new features here.

I had Claude write its own release notes - here are the highlights:

Every skirmish and Daily Op now opens with a choice, gives the side that's losing a way back, and pulls the armies into the middle of the map. There are also two new ways to play.

  • Openers: pick Blitz, Industry or Air Wing before the clock starts.
  • Call-down powers: Barrage, EMP, Drop Pod and the Sky Hammer orbital strike.
  • Objectives and salvage: Uplink relays, supply drops and wrecks worth scrap.
  • Feel: combat juice, adaptive music, unit voices and an announcer.
  • Command: battle alerts, game speed, saved squads and touch placement.
  • New modes: Last Stand survival waves and an 8-mission Ops campaign.
  • Progression: heroes, an after-action report with awards, a career, 7 mutators and a Daily Op.

Fights run longer and swing more. In 1,200 AI-vs-AI test matches on Normal, games still undecided after 25 minutes fell from 14% to 0.9%. The share of wins by a side that had been 800+ scrap behind rose from 24% to 46%.

Part of the reason Claude took so long was that it ran over a thousand simulated playtest sessions, and used the results to rebalance the existing units, add new ones, and introduce new features.

v5: Battle Drones goes 3D

After the success of Ultracode at "Make it a LOT more fun", I decided to be more ambitious:

Port this game to three.js with 3D models for all of the buildings and vehicles and landscapes

That was another overnight run. I woke up to this v5 version:

Now it is in 3D - the battlefield is at a slight angle, the buildings and vehicles are all 3D models, the rocks and trees look a bit 3D as well.

The new 3D models were entirely constructed by Claude in TypeScript code.

v6 (play v6 here) added some more visual polish. v7 (play v7) added robot infantry (troopers, rocket squads, snipers) and a "Condor" troop carrying aircraft.

v8: Archipelago

I was beginning to feel guilty at how little actual design input I had into the game - it really had been a case of me saying "make it more fun" and "add visual polish" for the past few releases.

I'd noticed that the AI didn't use the new infantry and troop carrying aircraft from v7 very often - there wasn't a great strategic reason to use them.

It would be neat if we had a new map with a new game mechanic that actively encouraged players to load up Condors with infantry robots and send them out into the map.

This resulted in my longest prompt yet:

Design a new map. Goal is to make different strategic incentives that encourage use of Infantry and Condors and aerial vehicles.

To do this the map will have limited harvester resources but several more uplinks - but uplinks will be on islands that are inaccessible by land vehicles or infantry. These uplinks can also not be claimed using air vehicles. The ONLY way to get them is to fly infantry there in a Condor.

Armies always start with a Condor and a single squad. If an army has no Condor a new one will be provided for free, flying in from the edge closest to their HQ and landing there. That free condor will come with a single free squad on board.

The two HQs should be entirely separated by water, but still accessible by vehicles thanks to two bridges across the map in different places

I want to encourage a battle over uplinks.

The map should be the times the size of other maps - still square

First research and then critique this design. Only build after we have agreed on any modifications

You get to design a new biome for this

The result was the tropical Archipelago map, with seven island uplinks that players can only capture by flying out infantry in a Condor. It's definitely the most fun map to play, once you've got the hang of the basic game mechanics from the simpler maps. The v9 edition made that map a little more interesting - it now looks like this:

Three islands, each with an uplink satellite. Blue holds one, red holds another, A blue condor is flying towards the red island, which is guarded by a red plane. There is a bridge nearby. The theme is tropical islands and looks very pleasant.

v10: Goliath, and agent battles

I decided to add giant robot mechs to the game - think Jaegers from Pacific Rim, or Titans from Warhammer 40,000.

Here are some of the prompts I used to brainstorm with Claude:

Help me brainstorm ideas for adding giant robots to this game - think dreadnoughts or titans from W20K - how could we do this in a way that enhanced gameplay, kept things balanced, added unique twist? Don't overthink this yet

Let's keep brainstorming. I like the idea that it's a mobile base - that can accept harvested scrap and can have buildings built near it (even if it later moves on) and can produce infantry units too. An interaction with condor would be neat but I don't know what that could be.

Idea: as it gets damage it loses the ability to fire some weapons - by default it has eye laser (like lancers) and arm canons (like titan) and two shoulder mounted mortars, plus machine guns similar to a squad of troops

Damage knocks out mortars and then laser - it always has guns. You can't build next to a building that was only put there because of the mech, you need the mech there for off-base building and only within three squares of it

[...] Lets do two condors can carry the mech

The end result is really cool.

Goliaths can be constructed using a Gantry - a building that can only be created after first building a Fab, Bay, Airpad, and Tech Lab. You can see the Goliath under construction, and it then walks out from the Gantry and can march around the map.

Goliaths can "anchor", which digs them into the ground. In their anchored state they can act as a new HQ, constructing infantry units and additional buildings in a new area.

Two Condor aircraft can hook onto a Goliath, at which point it can be flown around the map!

The game now ends when you destroy the enemy's HQ building and any Goliaths they might have built.

There are also a couple of mutators relating to Goliaths:

  • Goliath Armada starts each side with four airborne Goliaths (each with a pair of Condors) and no other units.
  • Robot Love adds a special rule: if enemy Goliaths get close to each other on the battlefield they fall in love and the game ends in a draw. (Thank Natalie for that one).

Agent battles

The other v10 feature is agent battles. In musing about how multiplayer could work I had an idea: what if different LLMs could fight it out in the game?

Fun extra challenge: think about how we might make multiplayer available to coding agents. It would be neat if we could set up a battle between eg GPT-6 Sol and Claude Opus 5.5 where each model has access to a tool which gives them information about the game (presumably non-visual, but only the information they could see through fog of war etc) and lets them control their units etc [...]

Consult ~/dev/llm/docs and include notes in that file about how LLM could be used here via a new tools plugin

Opus 5.5 went to work on this, producing this AGENT-BATTLES.md proposal and then implementing and testing it. The feature also includes the ability to record and replay these battles - here's a replay of Claude Haiku 5.5 vs. GPT-6 Luna, and here's that same battle in a separate debug tool that shows the underlying prompt responses.

Screenshot of a replay of a real-time strategy game between two AI models, shown from a top-down view of a snowy map with a dark frozen lake of cracked ice floes on the left and pine forests at the top and lower right. Top bar: pause button, "6:27", "1×", "anthropic/claude-haiku-5-5 · industry" in blue, "gpt-6-luna · industry" in red, a blue-and-red strength bar labeled "B" and "R", and "0:03". Left notification: "Blue: Pushing turrets at the enemy's south-east edge." Replay panel: "Blue anthropic/claude-haiku-5-5 · industry vs Red gpt-6-luna · industry · frostbite seed 42", a timeline slider at "6:27 / 7:48", and buttons "−30s", "+30s", "All", "Blue's eyes", "Red's eyes", "Notes". In the scene, a group of blue tanks and a large blue Goliath mech trailing smoke advance near the ice edge at lower center, while a column of red turrets (one burning) lines the ice to their north, red tanks and trucks sit by a rocky ridge to the east, and red base buildings occupy the top right. A minimap is in the top right corner and zoom in, zoom out and lightning-bolt buttons are on the lower left.

The prompt that drives agent battles can be seen here.

There are a few more replays like this linked in the README. I hope to turn this into a full league table at some point in the future.

v11: Random Maps

This version exists purely because I glanced at my Claude Usage page one day and saw that I'd only used 75% of my weekly allowance and it was resetting in 45 minutes. I decided to see if I could get an extra Battle Drones feature from my remaining tokens, and picked "random map" as the target:

Design and implement a mechanism for generating a random map using any of the available biomes - it should be the size of the largest map and rivers and bridges and rocks and forest and scrap and crystals are all in play. Make them rotationally symmetric and use a seed to allow them to be selected or reused later. You have 45 minutes to build this! Be creative.

Here's the transcript, and an image Claude generated to show me its work:

Grid of ten top-down game maps, two per biome (temperate, desert, arctic, volcanic, tropical), each with a river or lava flow, bridges and roads. Title: "Battle Drones: generated maps (108x108, point-symmetric), 2 per biome, runtime ground painter". Each map is captioned with a name and layout type plus a seed and crossing counts, e.g. "Hawthorn Delta · fork" "random-temperate-1x8a6r2 · 6 bridges, 4 fords"; layout types are fork, badlands, crossing and lake.

v12: Multiplayer via sound

I only just got this working, so I've not had much time to actively test it yet. The latest Battle Drones now supports multiplayer via two devices sat within microphone distance of each other!

This feature started out as my Chirp Pong experiment from last week. I pointed Claude Code at that working proof of concept:

Clone Simonw/tools from GitHub and look at recent branches for the example pong game that uses web microphone to implement multiplayer between two phones via audio signals

Build a version of that for battledrones

Opus built this Radio Probe tool to measure how much bandwidth we could get between two devices and, based on positive results from that, implemented a full audio modem system. I've tried it between laptops, iPhones and iPads so far and it seems to work really well!

Why use sound for this? Because I love static HTML that costs nothing to run, and I don't want to spin up a server somewhere and then stay responsible for keeping it operating for as long as anyone might want to play the game.

Some thoughts

I know almost nothing about game development. This makes it a great opportunity to try out coding agents in a field where my existing software engineering experience has less impact on the results.

Games are also super low stakes. The worst that can happen is one of my silly game experiments suffers a bug.

This morning (via Hacker News) I found Steam Fans Are Begging for a No-AI Filter as Steam Next Fest Is Filled With Slop. I wouldn't personally dream of submitting Battle Drones to an event like this - it's still way too low effort to warrant consideration as a legitimate indie gaming project.

... but I can now see a path to vibe coded games like this being taken seriously. Battle Drones is fun, it looks good, it has innovative features (the multiplayer-over-audio thing is a first for an RTS as far as I can tell).

I'd love to see what someone with better taste than me and a driving passion to produce something truly exceptional could build!

A few other observations from this project:

  • Static HTML and JavaScript is a fantastic medium for games development. WebGL works great, and Three.js (and Phaser before it) are excellent platforms to build on that the current models know inside out.
  • This also lets them run as Progressive Web Apps - I didn't ask for it, but Battle Drones works offline. I was able to play it on a plane despite never having directly installed it - my phone had it cached.
  • Giving Claude an OpenAI API key and telling it to generate images using OpenAI's models works really well. It can view the images it has generated and iterate on the prompts.
  • Opus 5.5 is spectacular at 3D modeling using Three.js (and Blender, and no doubt other 3D applications as well). The same is true of GPT-6 Astra. They are absolutely capable of building models for 3D game projects.
  • For features like replay and multiplayer it's useful to have a deterministic simulation engine. At one point Claude had to replace calls to Math.sin() and Math.cos() and friends with custom versions because different browsers (Chrome vs. Safari, for example) returned very slightly different numbers, desynchronizing the replay.
  • Opus 5.5 can write music! There are no audio files in this project - the soundtrack is entirely generated through code, varies across different maps, and even gets more intense as the battle heats up. See Scrimshaw Jukebox for a previous experiment with Claude for music composition.
  • I still can't get over how well the prompt "Make it a LOT more fun" worked.
  • Tools are effectively free. I prompted up the Radio Probe, the Model browser, the Agent vs. Agent debug tool, and Claude Code built a bunch of tools for itself that I haven't even explored myself.
  • Audio-based multiplayer between static HTML games works! I hope to see a whole lot more games use this same pattern - in digging around today I've not found much prior art beyond Siner by Alon Horesh and ggwave by Georgi Gerganov (also of llama.cpp fame).
  • Claude Code "Ultracode" burns tokens like there's no tomorrow, but it can also solve complex problems (like adding audio-based multiplayer) from a single prompt.
  • I'm still not quite over the guilt of building software in this way. I don't feel like I've earned the right to create something this good, in a field in which I have so little prior experience! At this point I've shown it to enough people in private that it felt wrong not to publish it for everyone else to see and learn from.

Update: Online multiplayer support

Earlier in this article I said:

Games are also super low stakes. The worst that can happen is one of my silly game experiments suffers a bug.

Then I tried playing the multiplayer version with Natalie... and the high pitched modem sounds gave her a nasty headache!

That's a pretty bad bug. I added a warning and was then inspired to build proper network multiplayer. I tried getting WebRTC to work but couldn't get a connection going between two of my own devices even on my own WiFi network, so I had Claude build a simple, stateless WebSockets relay server instead:

If I wanted to support multiplayer between two devices at a very low cost without storing any state on the server could I do that with a tiny asyncio web server running on the cheapest Fly instance?

Build the server and the fly.toml for deploying it, use Fly application name battledrones-relay - put that in a folder in the repo, include deploy instructions in the README in that folder

Here's the resulting server. Since this scales to zero and runs on a single Fly.io shared-cpu-1x instance it should cost me no more than $2.19/month - and that's if it stays hot and serving connections the whole time.

Battle Drones now supports online multiplayer. Click "Duel a friend online", then either share the resulting room URL via your messaging app of choice or have them snap a picture of the displayed QR Code.

I also added a feature where you can copy JSON of the match once it has ended and then feed that into the replay feature to rewatch your game.

I didn't expect to introduce online multiplayer this soon, but the headache bug felt like it warranted an urgent alternative.

Tags: game-design, projects, ai, generative-ai, llms, claude, vibe-coding, coding-agents, claude-code

My obituary for programming

My obituary for programming

Jeremy Scheff poignantly captures the key loss caused by coding agents for career programmers who enjoyed the puzzle of developing code:

Programming turned into one of the greatest jobs you could imagine. You got paid to work on tricky little logic puzzles. The trickier the puzzle, the more you got paid. But even pretty simple puzzles were worth a lot of money because regular people just couldn't do it! No, they needed us. They would give us a problem and we would solve it the way we wanted. We set the strategy, we made the timeline, we defined what was and was not possible.

If you're a programmer who thrives on building working systems and doesn't care too deeply about the problems solved along the way, LLMs are the gift that keeps on giving.

If directly solving those problems was a big part of your enjoyment, the loss is very real.

Via lobste.rs

Tags: programming, careers, ai, generative-ai, llms, coding-agents, deep-blue

Saving for the machines

From Jesús Fernández-Villaverde:

When machines can perform a growing share of tasks, growth depends on two margins: how the task structure affects the returns to accumulating machines, and how strongly capital accumulation responds to those returns. I argue that, in a standard task model, capital supply governs the size of the growth boom associated with automation, while the task structure sets the duration of this growth boom and the evolution of wages. I document how the same technology path that generates 11.7% annual growth when households choose their saving rate optimally delivers only 2.2% when the saving rate is fixed at the calibrated U.S. 2025 level of 23%. Therefore, slow growth might reflect too little capital accumulation instead of a technological bottleneck. Also, the saving rate rises mainly because automation raises the capital share, not because households become thriftier. Long yields price the growth boom: the ten-year real yield jumps from 5.1% to 13.6% on impact. In my benchmark calibration, hand-to-mouth households lose the equivalent of two-fifths to two-thirds of their consumption, while keeping them on trend temporarily costs at most a fifth of GDP.

Here is a thread on the paper.  Here are the slides.  More bottlenecks!

The post Saving for the machines appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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How to install an app on your Commodore 64

It’s time to install an app! But here in 1986, we still call them “programs,� not apps. So, you’ll want to set aside some time to get started installing a program.

Since you have a Commodore 64, there are really only two options for getting new programs this month: COMPUTE!’s Gazette and RUN, and you have to hope that one of those magazines isn’t sold out at the book store. So let’s get going.

Go To The App Book Store

You will need to ask your mom if you can ride your bike to the mall. The dirt mall is closer, but the magazine stand at the dirt mall doesn’t carry any computer magazines, so you’ll need to take a longer ride to the good mall, where the book store actually has computer magazines. It’s a couple of miles to the mall, so usually you would have a friend come with you, but you called their house and nobody picked up, so today it’s a solo trip.

Only one book store carries computer magazines at this mall; the other one only carries magazines about “serious� topics, but they can order back issues of a magazine for you if you want, you just have to wait a few weeks and they’ll call you when it comes in.

The guy at the book store doesn’t know the difference between the different computer magazines, so you can’t ask him if they have the one you want in stock, and he’s probably not going to answer a kid anyway. So you just have to go through all the titles one by one, and hope nobody put a copy of People or Omni in front of it by accident.

There are no ratings, and no reviews of the programs themselves. The closest thing you get is the magazine’s own reviews of hardware — modems, mostly — and a cover that promises you the issue has the thing you want. This month’s cover has a “Buyer’s Guide To Modems� banner across the top.

The cover of COMPUTE!’s Gazette, March 1986 (issue 33), with Survivor as the lead feature and a “Buyer’s Guide To Modems� banner across the top

Once you’ve got a copy of COMPUTE!’s Gazette and you’re checking out at the store, you can see that it’s three dollars for the magazine (about nine bucks in 2026 money). If you’re lucky enough to have a five dollar bill, you’ll still have two dollars left over after buying the magazine. That means you’ll have enough money to swing by the record store later and grab a 45 of one of the new singles, like Sheila E.’s “A Love Bizarre,� written by Prince, or The Bangles’ “Manic Monday,� written by Prince, or Prince and the Revolution’s “Kiss,� written by Prince.

Pick Your Program

Now it’s time to race home with the new magazine in hand. You’ll have to wait for everybody to get off of the TV that’s by the computer so you can switch it over to the channel the computer is on and get down to work.

Turn on the switch, and you’re at the blinking blue cursor where it says READY. while the screen is still warming up a bit.

When it comes to installing apps programs, it’s all about options, and this month, we’re spoiled: there are two! They’re both games: Survivor, an arena game where, “if you’re quick of mind, eye, and hand, you might outfox your opponent,� and Shifter. Truly, an embarrassment of riches. Since Survivor is the one on the cover, we’ll go with that one.

(Two or three programs a month is pretty typical. That’s… the app store.)

Type It In

Getting this program running is standard stuff — you just read the article on page 36 that describes the game, and then flip to pages 106 and 107 where there’s the code for a short BASIC loader, and then continue on to pages 107 and 108, where there are 345 rows of densely-packed listings consisting of 9 hexadecimal character pairs, all of which have to be typed in perfectly with zero errors or else your entire game will refuse to run.

A quick sample of the early part of your task looks like this:

The start of the machine language listing for Survivor, from COMPUTE!’s Gazette, March 1986, page 107

After you’re done typing that page in, you’re about a quarter of the way done, assuming you didn’t make any mistakes.

Wait, what’s that? Where are you supposed to be typing these in? Simply type them into the MLX program where you… wait, what’s that? You don’t have the MLX utility that’s used to type in machine language code for games and programs listed in the magazine?

Oh, don’t worry, you’ll just need to type in the code for that program. There’s an article explaining what MLX is, which you can read really quickly on page 93, and then you’ll find the code for it on page 94. That one’s only 100 lines of code, so it should be easy enough to type in. And of course, you’ll know if you made any mistakes when typing, thanks to the Automatic Proofreader.

Wait, you don’t have the Automatic Proofreader program?

Well, no worries. It’s only another 31 lines of BASIC code, which you can find on page 97. (This one you have to type in perfectly on your own; there’s no proofreader for the proofreader.) Once you do that, you’re all set.

The Automatic Proofreader article and BASIC listing, from COMPUTE!’s Gazette, March 1986, page 97

Now, you can just use the program that lets you enter the program to make your program. It should only take about half an hour to type in the code for the Automatic Proofreader, and maybe another hour or two for MLX. Let’s call it two hours total between them.

After that, Survivor is ~30 lines of BASIC plus ~350 lines of hex code, so… maybe six hours? But at least MLX will catch any typos as you go.

Once all of this is complete, be sure to save your work to a floppy disk so you don’t have to type it all in again! If all you have is a cassette deck and you’re saving to tape, it’s going to take probably 10–20 minutes of staring at a blank screen when you save, so set aside some time for that.

In total, it should only take you about 8 hours to have Survivor ready to play, plus however long it takes you to get to the mall, buy a magazine, and come back.

Ready To Play

(Click or tap to get started.)

[This is Survivor by Kevin Mykytyn and Mark Tuttle, from COMPUTE!’s Gazette, March 1986, running in the VICE emulator. The game loads and runs on its own, which takes a few seconds.]

Controls: the yellow player uses W/A/S/D to move and F to fire; the cyan player uses the arrow keys to move and Enter to fire.

Next Steps

The Download

Someday, rather than typing all of this in, you might be able to use your 300 baud modem to download already-created versions of these games and tools. You could dial a local BBS, if there’s one nearby. If you’re unlucky, the only one you can reach is a long-distance call, and you’ll be paying by the minute for as long as you’re connected. Or you could look for a local dial-up number for the Quantum Link online service (which will eventually evolve into America Online!).

Transfer times can range from tens of minutes to hours, and of course during those calls, you are tying up what’s usually the sole voice phone line for the household. Anyone picking up a phone handset in the house threatens to knock your connection offline, forcing you to start the whole process all over again.

Customization

Now that you’ve enjoyed your game of Survivor, there are some fun ways to customize your little computer and give it a personal touch.

Just for context, here’s a to-scale comparison of the screen resolution of your Commodore 64 to the dimensions of an iPhone Duo’s unfolded screen.

Commodore 64 screen compared to the iPhone Duo inner display, at the same pixel scale A 2670 by 1878 pixel rectangle represents the iPhone Duo inner display. In its top-left corner, drawn at true size, is the Commodore 64 screen: 384 by 272 pixels including border, with a 320 by 200 pixel text area. The C64 fits about 48 times into the Duo display. On hover or focus, the C64 shows its READY. prompt and the Duo shows the 180 by 180 pixel App Store icon at the same scale. READY. Commodore 64 384 × 272 pixels (320 × 200 content area) Icon for scale 180 × 180 pixels iPhone Duo inner display 2670 × 1878 pixels
Hover over (or tap) the comparison to see a C64 prompt and an App Store icon at the same scale.

You can’t change the wallpaper on your Commodore 64, but you can easily change the background colors for both the center area of the screen and the border. All you have to do is manually assign the proper numeric color code to the correct memory register corresponding to the values of each of those settings.

Memory address 53281 will set the background color for the primary content area, and a color code of 1 sets a nice readable white background, so it only takes a simple POKE 53281,1 command at the prompt, and you’re all set. Similarly, POKE 53280,4 will make the border of the screen a nice bright purple color, and of course there are a full complement of 16 colors to choose from.

Naturally, none of this customization is stored anywhere permanent, and it will all be lost if you turn off your computer or run a program.

READY.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this brief overview of how to get one game running on your Commodore 64, and perhaps gained a little appreciation for how things have gotten a bit simpler over the years.

Also, I will be entertaining a motion to return to calling our software “programs� instead of apps once more. Perhaps we could use the term to distinguish the software that’s created by humans actually typing things in, as opposed to the kind that’s merely generated by machines?

Tuesday assorted links

1. Freddie as AI skeptic (and I have given my predictions in fact).

2. Claims about Shakespeare and Marlowe.

3. How did “artificial intelligence” get its name?

4. How is the econ job market this year?

5. AI can now ace econometric coding.

6. The quasi-Riemann proof is becoming intelligible pretty quickly.  And new associated math results as a result, authored by humans.

7. Iran’s territorial losses since the 19th century.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The Insider

The Insider

My observation of air travel is that if there is one significant impact on a flight, there are guaranteed two additional impacts. An example: if my gate changes at the last moment, it is quite likely that departure from the gate will be delayed, followed by a further delay on the tarmac. Unexpected changes in complex systems create further unexpected changes downstream because complex systems are, well, very complex.

A simpler and more personal way to look at this is that when you are traversing complex systems (airports, credit card websites… really any large bureaucracy), there are two paths:

The happy path. Whatever you are attempting to do (fly home, change your auto-pay settings, paying a bill) is a well-known and on-the-rails process. You can sense this happiness because as you complete each action, you receive feedback: “Yes, we know what you are trying to do. Yes, we can help. Yes, we know what to do next. Don’t worry. We got you.”

Divergence from the happy path leads to one specific path: the sad path. All that positive feedback vanishes. I’m not talking about the dark patterns of corporations trying to trick you into not canceling your account; I’m talking about a truly one-off request that is reasonable, but so infrequent that no one built a happy path around it.

Once on the sad path, you are desperately looking for one specific human: The Insider.

In Defense of Process

Hey, I know you’re mad. I’ve been there, too. You missed the connection, your airline rebooked you onto a partner flight, and now no one can see your checked bag. You started on one website, then the other, and now you’re on the phone with what sounds like a human; you are getting the runaround.

Deep breath.

“Process is documented culture” is what I like to say. Long ago, this company you currently hate was smaller, hungrier, and more nimble. This was working out for them, as evidenced by rapid growth. The problem during rapid growth is that there are so many new humans showing up that it becomes more and more expensive to train these new humans in how this company works, so someone raises their hand and volunteers, “I will write down how we work, and I will share this with the new folks.”

This is a noble person trying to help. Remember that. This person gets the OK, and they (and others) start the arduous task of documenting how the company works and quickly discover two things:

  1. Doing this thoroughly is an impossible task. There are too many people, processes, and products, so they…
  2. Focus on the most important processes that need documenting. They document the visible, exciting, and profitable happy paths. They likely uncovered and discovered sad paths as they did their work, but their prioritization at the time was, “This doesn’t happen a lot, so… who cares?”

These clearly defined happy paths are fortified, refined, and built into the pillars of “How We Work.” The core business revolves around these many happy paths, but as anyone who has worked in this large business knows, reality is a mess.

The Power is Off

PG&E — Pacific Gas and Electric. For reasons unknown, the power was off at the house. No text, no email. Bills were paid. Visiting the website revealed nothing helpful. A call pointed me to a robot who gleefully told me, “Everything looks good.” When I finally reached a human, they reported, “Everything looks good.”

“The power is off.”

“We’re not seeing that here.”

“The power is off.”

“Hmmmmm. Wait. This is interesting. Can I put you on hold?”

I wait ten minutes before the call is dropped.

So what happened? I diverged from the happy path. The human on the other end of the phone probably knew something was up, but didn’t know what to do next because they’d never seen this situation before. Combine that confusion with their incentive — they are measured on how quickly they can resolve calls, so my situation represents a threat: I don’t know what to do here, and the longer it takes for me to figure it out, the worse my review. So, put him on hold. And hang up. Victory!

Having spent many days of my life on the sad path, I know two things:

  • Keep pushing
  • Seek The Insider

I call back. Same robot hoops, then the robot reluctantly points me at another happy path human, and I do the only move I know at this point: I get mad. Yes, you catch more flies with honey than vinegar, but honey is not working at this point. I get mad.

“The power is off. It’s been off all day. This is my second time talking to a human, and it takes twenty minutes to actually get to a human. How can you help?”

Moment of truth: I either get hold-dropped again, or they hear the frustration, and they escalate.

Each time I am interacting with a new human — shoulder-to-shoulder — looking to complete a task, I quickly look to answer one question: “Do they get it?” The Insider gets it… immediately.

“How can I help you, sir?”

“The power is off at the house. It’s been 12 hours. Everyone says it’s fine, but the power is off.”

“Hmmmmm. I see. Did it go off at 8:30 am this morning?”

THERE. THERE IT IS. THIS COULD BE THE INSIDER.

Calmly, biting my tongue, slowly, “Yes, 8:30 am on the nose.”

“Got it. Let me… wait. Ooooooh. A 2319 — I haven’t seen this in a long time.”

IT’S THE INSIDER. IT’S THE INSIDER OH MY GOD OH MY GOD ALL MY PROBLEMS ARE SOLVED.

I say nothing. It’s such a rare occurrence to find The Insider. My mind is racing. How can I get their contact info? How do I send them a cake? Their favorite cake. You bet I want to ask what a 2319 is, but I must not interrupt their flow. This is The Insider doing their best work.

“Ok, so I see what happened…” And they explain, at length, completely, confidently. Yes, it’s an initial dumb error on PG&E’s part, but that’s not the point. I am on the phone with a human who deeply understands the complicated, messy, and essential systems around them. They haven’t given up and aren’t just reading the workflows on the screens in front of them; they care… they are curious.

If The Insider seems familiar, dear reader, you are probably thinking of The Wolf. There are similarities to these archetypes.

Like The Wolf, The Insider looks like they work outside of the regular system that runs the business. Incorrect: The Wolf works outside of the system because they despise process; The Insider is an expert on the system. Both understand how the system works, but while The Wolf avoids the system because of its onerous impact on agility and velocity, The Insider knows where the system came from and why it exists. The Wolf thinks the system is a joke to be ignored, but to The Insider, it’s home.

The Insider jumps in when it’s time to help. They jump in on the saddest of paths. They arrive when the situation is foreign to everyone involved and deep system knowledge is required.

Wondering why you aren’t talking to The Insider yet? It’s because your path isn’t sad enough, yet.

The Process Inflection Point

Remember that human who raised their hand and said they’d write it down. It didn’t feel like a big deal in the moment. Yes, yes. That seems like a good idea. You zoomed right past a major inflection point of your company. See, until that point, much of what is important about your company existed in the heads of the folks who are running the company. They don’t need an artifact; they know.

The creation of this artifact allows for the creation of a set of employee variants that heretofore have not existed. Broadly, these are enforcers of the process, and their creation, as discussed endlessly, also creates consternation in your company because of the perceived assault on freedom. The argument: Why does anyone need to write it down? We already know.

They do. They do now. In five years, when you’ve grown 10x, they will have forgotten because they’ve moved on… either to harder problems or another company.

You know who doesn’t forget? The Insider. They’ve been here since the beginning, or they were minted during the process inflection point. In either case, they know some or all of the system. They didn’t build it, but they desire to understand it.

And they want to help.

Japan launches mission to bring home a piece of the Martian moon Phobos

Japan launched a $578 million mission Monday on a five-year expedition to land on the largest moon of Mars and retrieve samples for return to Earth, a daring international project that could yield new insights into the formation of the Solar System.

The robotic Martian Moons eXploration mission, known as MMX, lifted off at 3:41 pm EDT Monday (4:41 am Japan Standard Time Tuesday) from Tanegashima Space Center in southern Japan.

The MMX spacecraft rode into orbit atop a 207-foot-tall (63-meter) H3 rocket, Japan's flagship launch vehicle. The rocket assigned to MMX debuted a new souped-up configuration with four strap-on solid rocket boosters, full-throttle main engines, and an extended payload shroud to accommodate the demands of Japan's heaviest and most ambitious interplanetary mission to date.

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14 YouTube Videos I’m Recommending Right Now

A few days ago, a reader chided me for recommending YouTube videos. He told me I was just wasting time. Ouch!

He has a point, though—many of the videos on the platform are lackluster. But if you know where to look, there’s plenty to educate, entertain, and enlighten even the most snobbish viewer.

In that spirit, I share fourteen recent YouTube videos of exceptional merit. Feel free to add your own recommendations in the comments.


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I pay close attention to those indie virtuosos who build their careers on YouTube—many have no choice, because they are ignored by the major labels. The big music companies lost interest in this kind of spectacular musicianship long ago. So these hyper-talented individuals bypass the gatekeepers, and go directly to the fans.

Polish guitarist Marcin Patrzałek is one of these self-made viral stars. In a fairer world, artists of this caliber would have institutional support. But we don’t live in that world. So Marcin takes everything into his own (very capable) hands.

He recently released a video in response to critics who insist that playing guitar at this level has to be fake. The real-time transcription is a nice addition.

Marcin didn’t invent this dazzling style of percussive finger-tapping on the fretboard. (A lot of this tradition comes out of my old Palo Alto neighborhood, where Michael Hedges and Stanley Jordan did wonderful things on their six strings.) But he is taking it to another level.

If you’re game for more, here’s another recent video from Marcin. He claims this is his hardest guitar composition. It makes you wonder why this kind of music—which is viscerally appealing even if you know nothing about the guitar—gets so little attention on TV and other corporate media platforms.


I was a formidable Scrabble player in my youth. But I could never compete with Nigel Richards, the greatest Scrabbler of them all. He’s so good he can even win tournaments in French, although he doesn’t know how to speak the language.

David Eldar, another Scrabble champion of note, has claimed that Richards is “the best player at any game that ever existed….He’s not human.”

This video gives some insight into how he does it. But it still seems like magic.


Can a nuclear engineer save Guitar Center—a company that filed for bankruptcy during the COVID lockdown. The Wall Street Journal thinks so.


I know very little about the singer featured below. But I’ve carefully trained my YouTube algorithm, and it now gives me useful recommendations from off the beaten path. The platform recently served up this gem.

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Take My Toil, Leave Me My Struggle

Imagine RoboGym. There’s a button labelled “Lift”. Press it & you see a weight go up in the air & back down. Move the slider below & more or less weight moves. A helpful counter tells you how many joules of energy your workout has consumed.

Not the point of a workout? Correct. Genies are being designed as a RoboGym for the mind. What if they weren’t? Wha…

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And What Is That Original Sin, Exactly?

While most Cletus Safaris aren’t worth a damn, this one from CNN does have an important bit (boldface mine):

Barack Obama may have left the White House almost a decade ago, but I have heard his name on the campaign trail with increasing frequency in recent months.

Asked about Trump’s war with Iran, Joe Black quickly pivoted: “Obama was the king of killing people with drones,” he said.

The more difficult it gets to compare Trump’s America favorably to Biden’s, the more likely it is I will hear the name Obama.

Trump loyalists say it’s Obama who didn’t love America — not the president who recently suggested he’d allow Los Angeles and San Diego be bombed by an adversary.

Trump loyalists say it’s Obama who was pulling a fast one on the American people — not the president who is making billions of dollars in crypto.

Obama whataboutisms rarely survive serious scrutiny. But the feelings and the memories, real or imagined, his name invokes for many in the MAGA base feel very real. His election, to them, is America’s true original sin.

And that original sin is The Phenomenon (and Ideology) That Must Not Be Named.

How intuitions work

Black and white photo of two men shaking hands while a woman looks on with a wary expression, set in an urban environment.

Just as seeing a tree gives you reason to believe it’s there, sensing that a stranger is creepy gives you reason to walk away

- by Marc A Moffett

Read on Aeon

October 19, 2026

I am just through the door from several days’ travel and am wiped out, so this will not be a real letter.

Instead, just two observations.

First: it was exactly ten years ago tonight that then–Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton told the American people that Russian president Vladimir Putin hoped to have a “puppet” in the White House, and that Donald Trump was that puppet.

A scowling Trump responded: “No puppet. No puppet.”

Clinton continued: “It’s pretty clear.

Trump interjected: “You’re the puppet.”

Clinton continued: “It’s pretty clear you won’t admit…”

Trump interjected: “No, you’re the puppet.”

Clinton: “...that the Russians have engaged in cyberattacks against the United States of America, that you encouraged espionage against our people, that you are willing to spout the Putin line, sign up for his wish list, break up NATO, do whatever he wants to do, and that you continue to get help from him because he has a very clear favorite in this race.”

Trump shook his head disparagingly.

Ten years later, Trump is openly embracing Putin and is working to destroy the strongest and most successful alliance in human history to cement that partnership, apparently with an eye to enriching himself.

And so, the events of the present change the way we see the past. Had Trump strongly supported Ukraine as Congress has demanded, and stood firm against Russia, a country that is, after all, a minor economic player whose military is flailing at its attempt to absorb its neighbor, we would rightly dismiss Clinton’s warning as campaign hyperbole. As it is, though, Trump’s tie to Putin—the story he has always tried to bury by calling it the “Russia, Russia, Russia hoax”—seems likely to emerge as the central story of the Trump years.

As Clinton wrote today: “In just the last few days: Trump made a deal for the U.S. to buy Russian diesel, an economic lifeline for Putin; he and Elon Musk blamed each other for an order that slowed down Starlink satellite connectivity over Ukraine, hampering the country’s defenses during a devastating Russian attack; and Trump waived sanctions on Russia that Congress, led by his late friend Lindsey Graham, had pushed for. Now, Putin has proposed a summit with Trump and Xi to decide Ukraine’s fate for them, bulldoze a century of international cooperation, and frame Russia as an equal to the U.S. and China.

“We’ll see if Putin’s puppet continues to dance on his strings.”

Second, as no one paying even a modicum of attention can have missed, Trump is so unpopular that support for Republicans has fallen into historically low numbers. The gutting of Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), tariffs that have destroyed markets for agricultural products and increased prices, the war on Iran that has sent prices of gasoline and especially diesel soaring and thus increased the cost of everything that travels by train or truck, the blatant corruption that is lining the pockets of Trump and his cronies while ordinary Americans can’t make ends meet, and now Trump’s open embrace of Russian president Vladimir Putin—all wildly unpopular positions—mean that the districts that were firmly Republican by double digits just two years ago are now up for grabs.

That shift has revealed something interesting. Republicans running for office are refusing to hold town halls or to engage in debates with Democratic challengers. When they do show up, they tend to show how unserious they are about filling elected office, as Republican Dan Sullivan of Alaska illustrated when he asked the moderators at a debate with Democrat Mary Peltola if she had been given the questions beforehand because she seemed to be reading from notes while he didn’t know how to answer the questions. As the moderators quashed his allegation, Peltola noted: “I’m prepared!”

In the past, Republicans in safe Republican districts did not have to appeal to constituents or campaign, apparently because the letter “R” was enough to get voters to make a mark next to their name. In this new environment in which constituents are furious with Republican policies, Republicans hoping to be elected continue to keep their heads down, apparently hoping that they can be elected, or reelected, if they simply keep their mouths shut.

Their invisibility raises the question of why these people, who evidently don’t care about representing their constituents, would want to hold national office. Perhaps they want to hobble the federal government to enable wealthy businessmen to gain even more control over the country. Perhaps they want to enable the rise of a theocracy. Perhaps they are hoping to make money off their offices. Perhaps they simply want the prestige of a federal office.

But the extreme gerrymandering of states at the hands of Republican lawmakers that made their candidates shoo-ins in the past also means those Republican candidates are weak. New scrutiny of those candidates as Democrats challenge them is revealing just how weak they are.

In Texas, for example, Republicans are running Trump’s hand-picked candidate for the U.S. Senate, state attorney general Ken Paxton, a stunningly corrupt man who has recently been revealed to have spent New Year’s Eve 2024 partying in Dubai with a mistress and two men who are fugitives from U.S. law. In Kansas the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate is incumbent senator Roger Marshall, a man who has been revealed as having sued more than 700 of his obstetrical patients for unpaid bills, resulting in 81 arrests.

In North Carolina, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley has little to recommend him other than Trump’s endorsement; the same could be said of the Republican candidate for Senate from South Carolina, Darline Graham, whose main qualification is that she is former South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham’s sister. The story is the same across the country as Republicans field subpar candidates. Even in Maine, where Senator Susan Collins should have been a strong candidate for the party, stories of apparent corruption are undermining her candidacy.

As Paul Waldman noted in Public Notice on October 15, these stories and others are “just the Senate candidates. Up and down the ballot, the [Republican Party] has nominated crackpots and nitwits, none more colorful than Victor Marx, their nominee for governor in Colorado. Marx refuses to say how many people he has killed (though he says his stepfather forced him to commit his first murder at age 7), hunts demons, claims he can call in US airstrikes, and boasts of being a seventh-degree black belt in a martial art he invented. Normal stuff!”

In contrast to the Republicans hoping to coast to election, the Democrats running for office are holding town halls, listening to the people of their districts, needling their opponents who refuse to debate, and using the word “mission.”

The contrast between the two is a snapshot of a dying party that is no longer bothering to compete, and a rising party whose candidates are eager for the job and willing to work for it. It reminds me of the 1850s, when the Democrats, who were so accustomed to holding office that they assumed they were entitled to their posts, met the rising Republicans, whom Democrats considered too uncouth to hold office, but who ended up dominating the political system for the next seventy years.

—

Notes:

Public Notice
The GOP’s parade of horribles
Read more

cspan/status/2110941834083963365

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Things Have Changed

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On Brazilian food

Every now and then I will write a piece on food for Works in Progress.  Here is my piece on eating in Brazil:

Brazil, like most large nations, also offers multiple cuisines. For instance you can go to Minas Gerais for pork and beans. Minas beans would be my favorite of what I have sampled, surpassing Mexico. Belem serves cuisine from the Amazon region, including exotic river fish, dried shrimp, duck, and rice, with flavors from cassava, manioc, and the local fruit. You cannot get those dishes in many other places.

Feijoada is of slave origins, and is often associated with Rio de Janeiro, but it has evolved into a national dish, available almost everywhere. Think rice, black beans, collard greens, orange slices, and farofa, a kind of manioc flour, with different parts of the pig mixed in. At home I cook the vegetarian version of this dish. The coolness and sweetness of the orange go well with the sandy texture of the farofa, and the meal hardly costs anything to make.

Rio de Janeiro offers highly cosmopolitan options, and the city has a tradition of excellent French and Continental restaurants.

The best churrascarias I have had were on the outskirts of Curitiba in the south. You can get an excellent pasta meal combined with your choice of many kinds of meat, leading to an impossibly large quantity of food at your disposal. I favored these establishments more in my youth, but if you have never tried them, you are missing something.

Campo Grande, the booming agro-city in central western Brazil, has a derivative form of Okinawan soba (!) as a dining specialty. I regret that, due to a delayed flight connection, I have yet to try this apparent delicacy.

There is much more at the link, recommended.

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The net fiscal impact of immigration should include gains from trade

Immigration affects natives through both labor markets and public budgets, yet these channels are usually studied separately. We combine them in a general-equilibrium model with search-and-matching frictions, skill-specific progressive labor taxes, capital taxation and public goods, calibrated to 17 OECD countries over 2015-2019. The welfare effect on natives of a one-percentage-point increase in immigrant inflows varies in sign and size across countries, hinging on immigrants’ skill mix, immigrant-native wage gaps, resident unemployment, and tax progressivity. For inflows matching the skill composition of 2019-2024 arrivals, native welfare rises in 14 of 17 economies, and in most cases both skill groups gain, through different channels. Lower-skilled natives gain mainly from higher pre-tax earnings, driven by job creation and complementarity with skilled immigrants; higher-skilled natives gain mainly from lower labor-tax burdens. Evaluating immigration policy thus requires modeling labor-market and fiscal channels jointly: either channel alone gives an incomplete picture of who gains and why.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Michele Battisti, Giovanni Peri & Eleonora Romano.  I have seen the core point here neglected so, so many times in recent discussions of the fiscal impact of immigration.  The gains from trade count too!

As a side note, I do not accept the authors’ claim that the immigrants are equally productive yet underpaid, and thus the native economy benefits from capturing that surplus.  The better mechanism is simply that immigrants boost market size, and (especially for the United States) that brings some gains from increasing returns to scale, more innovation, making the country a talent magnet, and so on.  The point holds that the gains from trade effect can be small, and it still will overwhelm what otherwise appear to be net fiscal costs.

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Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 221136
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Thu Oct 22 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Western Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International
Date Line, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Johnston Atoll
late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the
system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Josephine, located a few hundred miles offshore of the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States.

Subtropical Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is
possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly
north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT35
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT25
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Western Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International
Date Line, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Johnston Atoll
late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the
system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Beven