After seven years, a spacecraft company is releasing its Otters into the wild

Imagine starting a space company in October 2019 with the aim of changing the world. Then, a few months later, a global pandemic shuts the world down.

"Little did we know what the world had in store for us," said Trevor Bennett, an engineer who co-founded Starfish Space after a few years at Blue Origin. "But that's kind of become part of our story, showing some resilience along the way."

At Blue Origin, he saw, up close, the ambitions of billionaires to build big rockets and put massive numbers of satellites into orbit. Bennett and his co-founder, another engineer from Blue Origin named Austin Link, began to think about the implications. How would humanity deal with that increased volume of satellites in orbit? Could low-Earth orbit be preserved?

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Rocket Report: Era of cheap launch is over? Astra sets early 2027 target for return

Welcome to Edition 9.12 of the Rocket Report! The big story in the global launch industry remains SpaceX's plans to wind down Falcon 9 operations for commercial launches, possibly within the next two or three years. That has created a scramble among satellite operators and some positioning among up-and-coming launch providers. Notably, in this week's newsletter, there's a story about how Firefly expects launch to become more expensive, and that customers got too used to rapid, reliable launch with the Falcon 9. I'm not sure that philosophy will work out long term.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

The best-named rocket in the world is sadly delayed. French launch startup HyPrSpace announced that it has pushed the inaugural flight of its Baguette One suborbital rocket to 2027, European Spaceflight reports. The 10-meter Baguette One rocket is a single-stage vehicle is capable of carrying up to 300 kg. It is powered by the company’s hybrid propulsion system, which combines liquid oxygen with solid polyethylene fuel.

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Please Stop Pretending You Don’t Want to Be President

Pete Buttigieg, who is not NOT running for president

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Something weird happened recently: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was interviewed by the New York Times, and when she was inevitably asked if she plans to run for president in 2028, she didn’t respond with “I’m just focused on the job I’m doing” or some other kind of evasion. Instead, she made clear that she’s thinking about it, and talked about some of the considerations involved, including the racism and sexism that could make such a bid more difficult. “If you’re asking me about the things that I weigh, of course, that’s part of what I weigh,” she said. “It’s funny because it’s kind of like, everyone else is allowed to talk about it, but I’m not?”

AOC’s candor is a good reminder that almost no one who runs for president is actually honest about it, right up until the moment when they announce their candidacy. They pretend that it has barely occurred to them, even as they book appearances in early primary states and write awful books about how inspired they are by this fine country of ours.

Nevertheless, some of the likely candidates are showing a little bit of ankle. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said this week, “I walked off the stage in 2023 after reelection, looked at my wife and said, ‘Whoo! I’ll never have to run for anything ever again.’ Sitting here today, I’m not sure that’s true.” Gavin Newsom, who may know something the rest of us doesn’t, says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does. Ro Khanna says he’s “thinking seriously” about it — which is a good enough answer. At least it doesn’t pretend that the candidate has no ambition, which for some reason is what most of them want us to believe.

But the default response for candidates is to avoid answering the question while leaving the door open, the better to create the impression that if and when they do run, it is not because they want to be president but because it would be impertinent to resist the call of history and a nation yearning for their leadership.

This is all Tim Russert’s fault

Unfortunately, politicians’ evasiveness only feeds journalists’ desire to see if they can force them to reveal their secret ambitions. If I ask in just the right way, the journalist thinks, maybe I can get my subject to slip up and say he’s running! Why that should matter is never questioned, and for this I blame Tim Russert.

For those too young to remember, before he died in 2008, Russert, who hosted Meet the Press for 17 years, was probably the most influential journalist in Washington. When he died, the political establishment went into an extended period of mourning ordinarily granted only to former presidents, complete with a memorial service at the National Cathedral attended by the likes of Bill and Hillary Clinton, Condoleezza Rice, and Madeline Albright.

When Russert died, I got a call from a cable TV booker asking if I would come on and talk about his legacy. I said, “I have to tell you, I was not a fan.” She quickly ended the call, and they found someone else. The year before, I had written this article in which I argued that Russert was a poseur, forever playing up his working-class roots in Buffalo as proof of his take-no-bull style, when in fact there was no one kinder to those with power (and he was one of a group of fake blue-collar guys, along with Chris Matthews and Bill O’Reilly, who pretended to be regular joes while they summered in Nantucket enjoying their 7-figure salaries).

Never was that pose of ersatz confrontation more on display than when Russert would pester some senator or governor about whether they were going to run for president, as though that were a question of such pressing importance that it justified repeated badgering even after it was clear that while the politician may have had an interest in running, he didn’t have an interest in saying so. If someone was lying us into a needless war or tossing off absurd arguments about tax policy, Russert would offer only the most superficial questioning, but when it came to whether they were going to make a run for the Oval Office, he wouldn’t take “I have no plans” for an answer.

It got so ridiculous that in late 2002, Saturday Night Live did a skit about Russert (played by Darrell Hammond) badgering (the actual) John McCain about whether he was going to run in 2004. At one point, Russert demands to know whether McCain will run in 2008, or 2012, or 2016; when he gets to 2028, McCain points out that he’d be 90, and Russert says “Hypothetical: It’s 2028. Genetic engineering has extended the human lifespan to 200 years. Would a relatively young John McCain challenge a reanimated Jimmy Carter zombie?”

You can see Russert’s legacy everywhere. Here’s a story about a town hall Maryland Gov. Wes Moore did recently:

Moore said he is not running for president in 2028, despite being described during the event as a “rising star” in the Democratic Party and someone who has been floated as a possible contender. Asked directly about 2028 plans, Moore said, “I’m not running for president.” When moderator Norah O’Donnell followed up, asking, “But you’re not saying you’ll never run?” Moore responded, “I don’t see a reason. I love my job. I love what I’m doing.”

Will he see a reason after he gets easily reelected in November? Probably, or maybe not. But why do we even care at this point?

Or take this example, in which an interviewer came up with a clever way to trap Pete Buttigieg into saying he’s maybe kinda sorta leaning toward possibly running:

The whole line of questioning is stupid; there are a hundred better things you could ask him. But also: C’mon, Pete. Everyone knows you’re running. You don’t have to say it explicitly yet (and there are legal requirements that kick in once you do), but at least you can say “Yeah, I’m thinking about it.”

That would be honest, it would be sufficient for voters, and it would force the reporters to come up with something more interesting to ask than “Are you running? Are you? Are you?” Then we could move on to something more important.

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With PRIMA, NASA will try to build a billion-dollar space telescope in record time

The first in a new class of space telescopes is on track to reach the launch pad in the early 2030s, NASA announced this week.

The PRIMA mission will be the first of NASA's Probe Explorers, a new line of observatories intended to do more science for less money. The agency's space telescopes typically fall into lower-cost "Explorer-class" missions, with cost caps in the range of a few hundred million dollars, or flagship observatories like the recently launched Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, which came with a price tag of some $4.3 billion.

With the Probe Explorers, NASA officials seek to find a better balance between the smaller Explorer missions and multibillion-dollar flagships. NASA has studied potential Probe Explorer mission concepts for several years after an independent panel of scientists recommended the new mission category. But it wasn't clear until recently whether NASA's science budget, which is under pressure from the Trump administration, would be sufficient to actually start developing one.

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Trump loves communism

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Fireside Friday, September 25, 2026

Hey, folks, Fireside this week! We’re now well into the Teaching Paradox series on Hearts of Iron, but as you may have noticed, the structure of those posts means they tend to be quite chunky (the first two have both been right around 10,000 words) and longer posts take time. Thus, a fireside this week to balance out, before we move from HoI4‘s purely military layer to its strategic, political and economic layer.

Ollie looking like he is about to give his own lecture, presumably on the importance of sufficient pets and nuzzles.

For this week’s musing, I want to talk about a series of videos on ‘realistic’ worldbuilding I’ve seen floating around online from a channel called “The Grainbound.” The channel seems to regularly hit the hundreds of thousands of views on its videos and I’ve seen them floating around among friends and in other contexts which makes me think they’re getting pretty wide distribution in the fantasy-worldbuilding space. They are, after all, decently well-produced and authoritative sounding, which is why it is such a problem that they’re not quite right.

I’m going to pick two of the most popular videos to discuss, to give a sense of what I think is the problem here, one on how the logistics of grain transport supposedly shapes maps (really, the distribution of large settlements on maps) and another on the role of sea trade in food supply to cities. And at first, you might be surprised that I am going to take issue with this, because “food production fundamentally determines the shape of pre-modern societies” is very much my brand. And so it is good to try to reason from historical examples to understand how societies – real and fictional – are structured.

The problem, of course, is that the devil is in the details: how accurate is your understanding of historical societies and how effective is your reasoning from them? When i started listening to these videos, it was a strange sort of experience – some of the principles were right, or at least right-ish, but the whole thing was just a touch off, punctuated by moments of sharp dissonance where I detected a real ‘howler.’

Perhaps the sharpest of these howlers – which made me immediately suspicious about the historical knowledge foundation at work – came in the second video on seaborne trade. The overall point – sea transit is highly dependent on wind patterns, which are sometimes seasonal – is good. He neglects, however, coastal winds (sea breezes and offshore breezes) which tend to be more localized and time-of-day dependent than prevailing winds and more variable, which is part of why a lot of pre-modern shipping is cabotage (literally ‘coasting,’ mixed-cargo, small-load, short-distance coastal routes), a type of shipping his model entirely neglects.1

But the point at which I realized this fellow’s knowledge foundation is deeply cracked (and probably very thin) was the claim – at about six minutes in – that “the capital [Rome] was in the wrong place for its own food and rather than move the capital, they spent about a century of moving the harbor towards it.” What he has in mind was the construction of Portus, a large artificial harbor complex built under the emperor Claudius in the mid-first century AD. What he is unaware of is that this wasn’t the first port of Rome: that was Ostia Antica, sitting directly on the mouth of the Tiber (today the site is inland but in antiquity, it was coastal), which construction at Portus expanded. A lot of trade into and out of Latium also went through Puteoli, which the video mentions, but Rome had a port at the mouth of its river and trade-reliant imperial capitals sited inland (often for security reasons) but with dedicated port cities are not rare: Athens and its Piraeus, Antioch and its Seleucia in Pieria, for instance.

Moreover, he was treating the fact that most of the calorie content of Rome arrived in two short bursts as a unique product of the sailing season, when it is in fact an iron law of societies based on cereal cultivation: you eat all year, but the crop only comes in once. For any city pulling from the whole of the Mediterranean – and thus pulling from both spring wheat and winter wheat farming regions – the harvest comes in twice. The boats merely deliver that farming-based timetable on a short delay.

But there’s a deeper problem here, which becomes more visible in his most popular video, “The Ox That’s Breaking You Fantasy Map” where he tries to outline a typology of settlements based on their interaction with grain transport. And the core problem here is a the map is not the territory problem: he is focused on building maps for fantasy worlds and so he is beginning as a map-maker begins: with terrain and then with major settlements and political structures. He thus defines his major settlements as different kinds of ‘Lords’ (really, political regimes): the ‘Chokepoint Lord’ (who controls a trade chokepoint like a mountain pass), the ‘Surplus Lord’ and so on.

The problem is that urban centers and their connected polities don’t emerge this way, springing into existence ex nihilo to respond to fully developed long-distance trade patterns. Instead, they emerge bottom-up. Some clever chap (chaps, really, over many generations) invent farming, enabling sedentary settlements (villages) a greater population density. Those villages get too big (because farmers need to be able to walk to their fields in the morning) and fission, creating new villages (and pushing other less-population-dense communities out of the way, violently, as they do so), as farming communities ‘fill in’ geographic spaces suitable for farming. Lands marginal to farming end up with lower population density strategies (pastoralism, hunting and gathering), often deeply interconnected with the farmers next door.

This ‘carpet’ of farmers isn’t focused on moving grain long distances, these are mostly self-sufficient villages. Now ‘how do towns form’ is a contested question, but there are basically two main schools of thought: towns form when wealthy landholding aristocrats (Big Men) begin centralizing resources (mostly for warfare), or towns form when temples and their priests (Big Men with Fancy Hats) begin centralizing resources (mostly for religious activity, but also for warfare) in the largest, densest villages. In practice, when we look at early settlement formation, both factors appear to be at play. But once the Big Man or the Big Temple have extracted surplus, they’re using it to employ specialists (craftsmen, priests, bureaucrats, domestics and oh so many thugs), which creates a local (still not dealing with long-distance yet) nexus of economic activity, which creates local market-centers. And of course it now makes sense for merchants to stop by those local market-centers (rather than try their luck in random villages) and for the villagers to find artisans or buyers for their crops there.

While our maps generally show just the largest handful of Really Big Market Towns, the territory is a tightly woven carpet of smaller farming villages (interlinked with non-farmers where relevant), so ubiquitous we don’t put them on our maps. I think Tolkien – with his Middle Earth being a world depopulated by catastrophes and thus having large stretches with minimal settlement – is in part to blame here, but folks often don’t seem to quite grasp some times how dense the tapestry of settlement gets in agrarian societies where transit is slow. Here, for instance, via Stanford’s POLIS is a map of the Greek poleis in the broader Aegean:

Map generated via POLIS by Stanford University

And of course the ’empty’ spaces here aren’t in most cases really empty: some of them are unsuited for farming and so have low population density, but a lot of them (particularly in Anatolia) are just inhabited by non-Greeks whose communities were thus not captured by the Inventory of Archaid and Classical Poleis (2004) on which the project relies.

Now, human beings are not stupid and so they will recognize key geographic spots and intentionally put centers of control on them, but they do not need to do so. Byzantium and Vienna should both be classic examples of Graindbound’s ‘chokepoint Lord’ but neither was a hugely important place until the Romans chose to make them so – Constantine putting his shiny new capital on top of Byzantium and the Romans building a major military base on the Wienfluss in 97 AD, though Vienna really only becomes an important place because successive German dynasties (the Babenbergs and then the Habsburgs) choose to live there. They could have chosen to live somewhere else! The role these cities served was not the product of some immutable law of long-distance trade, but rather a direct and intentional choice by specific human actors.

In short, everything I’ve seen from the channel is pockmarked with the scars of autodidactism.

Given all of that, it is not a huge surprise that the fellow behind Grainbound has a background in software development, rather than history, archaeology or anthropology. Coming from software development, it is perhaps not surprising that his effort is explicitly to “systematize worldbuilding,” but the result is reducing the complexity of the real historical world to the simple maxims and rules of thumb we use to describe it. My description above of how towns form is more faithful to our evidence for what the development of early states and urbanism looks like, but it is every bit as simplified because actual historical demographics are complicated and highly contingent.

I worry that the popularity of channels like this serve to mislead audiences but also to reinforce the false perception that history is a skill which doesn’t require any specific training or knowledge beyond a collection of historical ‘facts.’ But as we’ve discussed, doing history (or anthropology, or archaeology) well does require trained skills – a lot of them, in fact.

Mostly though, what the success of this channel brings home is that there’s clearly a strong market for this sort of thing and that we professional historians are mostly not reaching it, in part I suspect because of the perception in the field that writing this sort of thing would be ‘beneath us,’ rather than what it is: a valuable opportunity for an exercise in public education. As a corollary to that, it is also increasingly clear that the place to go for the audience here is YouTube, especially with the decline of the micro-blogging (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) ecosystem. I’ve had plans to put together a space for recording video in my home office for a while now (delayed by annoying repair work we’re having to have done on the basement where that is) and while I expect to remain primarily a ‘written word’ guy, everything I see suggests that I need to give serious thought about branching into video, even if it is just the form of “person speaks into camera for 10 minutes.”

On to Recommendations!

Speaking of YouTube, I ran across an interesting channel mostly focused on film criticism and social media, but branching out to a range of topics, The Morbid Zoo, run by University of Illinois Urbana-Campaign PhD candidate Mariana Colin. Of particular relevance to our interests here, she has a really good three-part video series on monsters in Lord of the Rings, covering Orcs, Ents and the Nazgul. I also thought the recent video essay ostensibly about Brand New Day but really about the place of The Punisher in Marvels’ moral universe to be really neat and frankly on point for our current moment.

Also on YouTube, for those who like naval artillery, Forgotten Weapons got out to the USS New Jersey (BB-62, laid down in 1940) to do a series of videos showcasing the operation of New Jersey’s guns, including the multi-purpose 5 inch Mk 12 and of course the big 16 inch main battery. The video run through the entire loading and firing procedure, which gives a lot of insight into how many sailors it took to fire these weapons in combat and also the remarkably clever and technical pre-microchip mechanical computing used to perform range-finding and generate firing solutions. Forgotten Weapons got to film in a number of places that tourists cannot normally go (and touch things they can’t normally touch), so it really is a neat chance to see the whole process walked through.

Meanwhile, for something to read, over at Tales of Times Forgotten, Spencer McDaniel has a really awesome deep dive into the figure if Persephone: the plausible origins for her as a mythical figure, her apparent role as ruler of the Underworld (more frequently so than her husband, Hades), and the suggestion of the evidence that Persephone as a mythological figure may actually predate Hades in terms of the development of Greek religious belief. There’s so much here – Indo-European etymologies, discussions on the influences of early Greek myth, later presentations of Hades and Persephone – that this summary really doesn’t capture it all, but do give it a read.

Meanwhile we also have a new Pasts Imperfect. The headline essay is a meditation by Joel Christensen (of Sententiae Antiquae) on the way that the Iliad and Odyssey change in the retelling and how these poems have always done so: changed by the oral tradition, by the decisions of translators, by the impact of scholarship, by each new hearing. Also noted is the new research paper from the Itiner-e project on the Roman roads, but what I especially like is the emphasis on how these projects build on each other, reaching back to The Barrington Atlas (2000), through the important work of the Pleiades Project, which provides the data baseline used by all sorts of geographic antiquity projects (like Itiner-e). It’s a good reminder that our discipline isn’t just repeating the same facts over again: we are learning new things about the past all the time, advancing the frontier of human knowledge and at the same time this is a collaborative, iterative project, building on each discovery with new ones.

This week’s book recommendation, somewhat in tune with the theme of our musing, is very much “one for the nerds,” but I thought it might be useful to get a sense of what actual, serious pre-modern (in this case, ancient) demography looks like, so I am going to recommend L. de Ligt, Peasants, Citizens and Soldiers: Studies in the Demographic History of Roman Italy 225 BC – AD 100 (2015). Immediate caveats are required: this book is, in paperback, mercifully reasonably priced, but whereas most of my book recommendations here are selected for at least some degree of approachability for a non-specialist reader, I am going a bit more technical with this one; this book is first and foremost written for other scholars. It is not the case that Peasants, Citizens and Soldiers is badly written, to be clear – it is quite well written – but it assumes a fair bit of background knowledge about the Late Roman Republic and Early Roman Empire. That said, there isn’t a ‘for beginners’ approach to Roman demography really out there, so this is as good a starting place as any.

Because it is written for other scholars, the true structure of Peasants, Citizens and Soldiers is basically a series of proposed solutions to points of scholarly dispute; it is organized by academic beefs (although de Ligt is too professional to present them quite so bluntly), rather than a straight chronology or a series of lessons. De Ligt, writing for other scholars, assumes you basically know the outlines of the major debates on the topic, though he is generally pretty good in laying out (fairly!) where each ‘side’ stands.

That said, for a non-specialist reader, Peasants, Citizens and Soldiers has two major virtues. The first is simply that de Ligt here persuasively addresses most of the major scholarly disputes (with a lot of their subfacets, e.g., what does this mean for the Gracchi? For land settlement? for the enfranchisement of the Italians? etc) concerning Roman demography in this period. As a result the book offers a good overview, of a sort, of the methods we use to try to answer those questions. De Ligt engages in demographic modeling, uses the archaeological evidence, engages in textual close reading and so on. The book thus gives a reader coming from outside a very good sense of what actually rigorous approaches to the core question – how many people lived in Roman Italy – looks like.

And the second great virtue is simply that de Ligt is (for now at least) part of what we might represent as a ‘winning coalition’ in the debate. He is a champion of a revised (upward) version of the ‘low count’ (the lower estimate of Roman population); the revisions carry him and other low-counters very close to to the ‘middle count’ (which arrives at similar numbers by slightly different reasoning), while remaining very far below the ‘high count’ (a much higher estimate of Roman population). And as Walter Scheidel pointed out in his review of this volume,2 the 2010s saw the low and middle count largely triumphant (largely through the use of more archaeological evidence), narrowing the debate to just between high version of the low count and the middle count, which are quite close together in any event. Consequently, de Ligt, while again a somewhat challenging read for the non-specialist, will also bring them up to speed fully with where the question of the population of Roman Italy is right now.

SpaceX Falcon 9 to launch classified mission for U.S. Space Force from West Coast

File photo of a Falcon 9 at Space Launch Complex 4-East at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Image: SpaceX.

SpaceX will conduct a launch for a secretive U.S. military satellite constellation before dawn on Saturday from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

Liftoff of the USSF-385 mission atop a Falcon 9 is scheduled for 7 a.m. PDT (10 a.m. EDT / 1400 UTC). The rocket will take a southerly trajectory on departure from the pad at Space Launch Complex 4-East.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage starting about 30 minutes prior to launch.

The classified mission for the U.S. Space Force is thought to be the third in a series of flights to deploy satellites based on SpaceX’s Starshield, a version of a Starlink satellite intended for government use.

The first satellites in this particular constellation were launched from Vandenberg on USSF-366 on Aug. 15 and USSF-153 on Sept. 10. Although the Space Force revealed no details about the missions, it cataloged 23 satellites in orbit following each launch.

A similar classified mission, USSF-259, headed to a different orbit on Sept. 17 and appeared to carry 17 satellites.

The first stage booster, B1100, is making its 10th flight and will land on the drone ship ‘Of Course I Still Love You’, around eight and a half minutes after launch.

It will be the sixth and final Falcon 9 launch of the month from Vandenberg which has become the prime site for SpaceX as it shifts its focus at Cape Canaveral to Starship operations. Just one Falcon 9 flew from the company’s East Coast launch site in September.

Good points from James Gilliland

It pains me to say this, but if we actually “get AGI,” the resulting boom in industrial capacity from robotics and massive society-wide wealth creation will look like a total vindication of neoliberalism.

The discourse about financialization and offshoring being a generational mistake may be replaced by a very different historical interpretation: that the late 20th and early 21st centuries were an enormous capital-accumulation phase, freeing up civilization-scale pools of liquid capital that could ultimately be deployed to accelerate and bring about the most consequential technological phase-change in human history.

In that telling, what looked like deindustrialization and betrayal from inside the period (I grew up in the Rust Belt, I know) becomes the prelude to reindustrialization on an almost unimaginable scale.

None of this is inevitable. The needle has certainly not been threaded. China and x-risk remain enormous contingencies. But if it is, I suspect the future will look back on the last 50 years very differently than we do today.

Here is the link.

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Friday assorted links

1. “We find a significant and highly robust empirical relationship between gender conservatism and protectionism. That relationship has been evident since 2008 and it decidedly is not a product of Trump-era politics.”

2. More than half the world’s top AI talent comes from China.

3. Argentina now at 1.0, Mexico at 1.2.

4. China is rushing to build a huge nuclear arsenal.

5. Afra Wang on some Chinese AI communities (New Yorker).

6. Mental health trends for Australian youth.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Slab Graveyard

It's ok if you want to close close your eyes for the slab graveyard, so you can still have fun riding the mantle plume back up afterward!

Politics Chat, September 24, 2026

In today’s Politics Chat: A federal judge blocked the State Department’s Office of Remigration from sending deportees to third countries with no ties to them, a program that has cost more than 400 million taxpayer dollars. Another federal judge ruled Homeland Security cannot keep holding detainees in abysmal conditions at a facility in New York. A judge also blocked Trump’s ban on White House press access for Politico, CNN, and MSNBC for 14 days, and Secret Service let the reporters back onto the campus that afternoon. At the United Nations, Iranian and Cuban delegates walked out during Trump’s remarks, and many delegates walked out when Benjamin Netanyahu spoke. Chinese President Xi Jinping again invoked the Thucydides Trap to Trump, a reference to a declining power confronting a rising one. Health and Human Services proposed stripping federal regulations from Head Start, including a new English-only requirement. ProPublica corrected false claims Senator Susan Collins made about its reporting on an alleged pay-to-play scheme tied to a Navy contractor’s campaign donations.

Watch today’s live recording here.

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Pay-To-Play

September 23, 2026

When Trump returned to the White House in 2025, he fired the investigators in the anti-corruption group of the FBI who were investigating Sen. Susan Collins for engaging in a pay-to-play scheme, He largely stopped investigating public corruption, The Gilded Age was known for lawmakers rewarding business followers with government contracts and political office, The relationship between MAGA Republicans and the misuse of tax dollars is becoming more obvious, HHS Secretary Kennedy has taken funds from his department’s Office of Minority Health to fund security for himself, Kennedy has accepted gifts and his wife has accepted consulting fees from allies, Tax dollars are being used to pay authoritarian governments for imprisoning immigrants from the US, The administration is reversing its previous emphasis on resettling refugees, focusing instead on expelling them, often to places where they will be tortured, and all with little oversight, In Texas, an ICE agent shot a Venezuelan food delivery driver who had a valid work permit, The ICE agent was a recent hire, among those hired when the workforce was doubled after billions of dollars were provided by Congress, The NSF, NOAA, and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality are all running far behind in funding for the fiscal year, Trump’s ballroom will cost taxpayers more than $300 million, in spite of his early promises, And the ballroom’s design does not meet fire codes, a concern that Trump dismissed.

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September 24, 2026

After a hearing yesterday about Trump’s Friday ban of CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House campus, very early this morning—I was still awake writing yesterday’s letter—U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly granted the request of the media outlets to stop Trump’s order banning members of their organizations from the White House complex.

Kelly, whom Trump appointed to the bench in 2017, challenged the argument of the White House that it had banned the journalists because they had endangered national security, noting that the stories to which administration lawyers claimed to object were “routine.” In fact, one of the stories the White House claimed endangered national security was based on a press call from the White House itself. According to Oliver Darcy, who writes the media newsletter Status, the anonymous “senior administration official” who provided the quotations on the call was none other than Vice President J.D. Vance.

Kelly ordered the credentials of 78 journalists restored immediately.

This morning, the White House continued to deny reporters from CNN, Politico, and MS NOW access to the White House campus. Their lawyers asked for an emergency hearing because the administration had “already repeatedly violated the Court’s Order,” and soon after the judge ordered the administration to respond, the reporters were once again allowed into the area.

And then tonight, at least CNN and MS NOW were blocked from access to the White House state dinner with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. After Trump posted on social media that CNN and MS NOW (he called it MSDNC) were refusing to cover Xi’s visit “because they knew how good it would be, they didn’t want credit to be given to ‘TRUMP,’” the White House told CNN it could send only an audio producer and a cameraman to the event, not a reporter or producer. Senior White House correspondent Kristen Holmes said: “They again said that we were specifically denied access and that they were not letting in the CNN editorial presence.”

This morning, Trump complained on social media that “[t]he Media is trying to cover up how well things are going before the Midterms, just to help Democrats.”

And that’s the gist of Trump’s attacks on media outlets: MAGA is falling apart, and he either lives in a fantasy world or hopes to stem that collapse by issuing propaganda that will convince voters he is actually winning.

The fantasy world thesis has supporting evidence in an image posted on Trump’s social media account this morning, showing Trump and Xi standing together on a red carpet in front of an airplane apparently labeled Air China. There is a military aircraft flying over a circle of stars with the words “Only Trump” superimposed in a German-style blackletter font. Behind Trump, to his right, is a young woman who looks like Trump’s loyal aide Natalie Harp standing with her hand over her heart.

Journalist Aaron Rupar of Public Notice noted that the image was a digitally altered photo in which the image of the chief officer of protocol of the United States, Monica Crowley, had been replaced by an image that appears to be Harp.

Convincing voters he is winning is an even harder sell.

The Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration is its signature policy, and last week a federal appeals court stopped the Trump administration from sending migrants to third countries, finding that the short timeline for those renditions stripped deportees of their right to due process. The administration appears to have continued the renditions, arguing that the court had not officially notified a lower court of its decision and thus it was not yet in effect, prompting an appeals court to clarify that the flights must stop.

Today Solicitor General D. John Sauer asked the Supreme Court to step in to permit those renditions to third countries. He said that disruption of the administration’s “plans…imposes massive costs on the government and invariably requires new rounds of diplomatic engagement with countries who may be all the more skeptical of our removal efforts given the disruption.”

Also today, U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan criticized Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for ignoring his previous orders and continuing to hold people in “inhumane and unconstitutional” conditions at Manhattan’s 26 Federal Plaza, depriving detainees of “sleep, sanitary living conditions, basic personal hygiene needs, sufficient food and water, and adequate medical care.” Although, as Josephine Walker of Axios points out, the administration likely sees the appalling conditions of its prisons as a way to induce migrants to leave, the judge required ICE to provide adequate space and humane conditions for detainees.

Meanwhile, as Ryan J. Foley of the Associated Press reported today, a report from the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that ICE had no strategic plan for spending the unprecedented $45 billion Congress gave it in Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year, and has wasted tens of millions of taxpayer dollars on slapdash plans for mass detention.

It spent nearly $3 million for tents at Guantanamo Bay that were never used, $20 million for maintaining warehouses that were never used to house detainees and are now being sold, and excessive rates to lock people up. Foley reports that the Department of Homeland Security told the GAO that it would have a plan for spending its windfall by August 31, 2027, nearly a year from now.

After Trump announced the U.S. would accept meat from other countries in order to lower food prices, on September 22 the Department of Agriculture announced the recall of more than 167,000 pounds (75,750 kg) of raw pork, beef, and goat. The items were produced without federal inspection but carried false marks claiming they had been inspected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency said the food “should be considered misbranded and unsafe to eat.”

Trump’s insistence that the country suffers from voter fraud isn’t going well, either.

In California, Republican sheriff Chad Bianco and the Riverside County sheriff’s department confiscated more than 650,000 ballots after California voters agreed to redistrict the state to offset the Republican mid-decade redistricting of Texas. The state’s Democratic attorney general immediately ordered him to return the ballots, saying he had no authority to confiscate them and that the seizure was intended to make people distrust elections.

As Uwa Ede-Osifo of the Guardian reported, the California Supreme Court today ordered Blanco to return the ballots, saying that it was Blanco, rather than voters, who was endangering elections: “Allowing law enforcement unfettered access to ballots, or the ability to handle and count them in secret, based on unregulated protocols, itself creates a substantial risk to election integrity,” it said.

On Saturday, California governor Gavin Newsom signed a bill that makes it a felony to seize ballots from a county elections office.

Trump’s own claims of voter fraud also took a hit this week. As Nick Corasaniti of the New York Times reported today, in July, Trump and Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin claimed they had found more than 270,000 noncitizens on voter rolls in California, Nevada, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Mullin stated that there were as many as 15,903 noncitizens on the voter rolls in Nevada.

But when officials from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) met with Nevada election officials in August, they admitted Mullin’s number was inflated. After the meeting, one wrote to say that the department had confirmed just 185 people on the voter rolls were not citizens. They sent Nevada officials a list of those 185 names.

On Tuesday, Nevada told the federal government that the 185 people on the government’s list are all citizens. “Our records do not support DHS’s claims, and DHS has still not provided evidence to change that,” said Francisco Aguilar, Nevada’s Democratic secretary of state. “Instead, DHS officials continue their attempts to intimidate election officials into compliance and deter voters with huge claims of fraud with no evidence. Repeating unsupported claims does not make them true.”

Trump’s job approval rating continues to drop. Fifty Plus One aggregated new polls today and found that only 34.7% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, while 62.1% disapprove.

Meridith McGraw, Maggie Severns, and Suzanne Vranica of the Wall Street Journal reported today that an ad airing in major U.S. markets shows Trump promising to “defeat communism, Marxism in America once and for all,” before showing images of Trump at White House events as a choir sings “Love Me.” At the end of the ad, the screen reads: “Paid for by the U.S. government.”

Former campaign finance official Daniel Weiner called the ad “an astonishing misuse of public resources in the campaign context, one of the most blatant I’ve ever seen.” Democratic lawmakers wrote to the White House demanding the ad be taken down, calling it “government propaganda” more fitting for North Korea than the U.S. and “an egregious and illegal misuse of Americans’ hard-earned tax dollars.”

According to the Wall Street Journal reporters, the White House says the ad is a “public service announcement,” “reminding Americans to love their country and understand what makes it worth defending, at home, at our borders, and abroad.”

—

Notes:

https://www.politico.com/nuews/2026/09/24/white-house-access-media-ban-ruling-01091226

https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/24/politics/live-news/white-house-press-ban-lawsuit

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/09/23/white-house-cited-anonymous-quotes-politico-ban-it-was-source/

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/24/politico-granted-white-house-access-after-being-denied-earlier-thursday-01091766

Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance
Hard Pass
Just after midnight last night, Judge Kelly entered an order directing the president to unban CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House grounds. He issued a 14-day Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) restoring hard passes for journalists working for those media outlets. This is a temporary measure; the next step will be more briefing by the parties a…
Read more

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-media-ban-2677933582/

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/18/third-country-deportations-appeals-court-ruling

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/24/third-country-deportations-supreme-court-emergency-appeal

Law Dork
Breaking: DOJ goes to SCOTUS to re-start rapid third-country removals
On Thursday afternoon, the Justice Department went to the U.S. Supreme Court for the third time in a case challenging the Trump administration’s effort to quickly send people to countries where they are not a citizen and often have never even visited…
Read more

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca1.53896/gov.uscourts.ca1.53896.108510897.0.pdf

https://people.com/over-160-000-lbs-raw-meat-recalled-at-udsa-s-highest-risk-level-for-production-without-inspection-12137395

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/24/california-sheriff-ballots-chad-bianco

https://electionlawblog.org/2026/newsom-signs-bill-blocking-ballot-seizures-ahead-of-california-primary/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-administration-appeals-to-supreme-court-as-3rd-country-deportations-are-thrown-into-question

https://prospect.org/2026/09/24/judges-reject-ices-underhanded-attempt-to-maintain-third-country-removals/

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/18/third-country-deportations-appeals-court-ruling

https://apnews.com/article/ice-detention-waste-gao-report-7909a2cf777672e1483f5ed232e93cba

https://www.nysd.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/Opinion%20%28Dkt%20186%29.pdf

https://www.axios.com/2026/09/24/ice-nyc-detention-center-unconstitutional-conditions

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/us/politics/nevada-voters-homeland-security-trump.html

https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/approval/president

https://www.wsj.com/politics/u-s-government-airs-pro-trump-anti-communism-ad-39cd8227?mod=bsky

Trump’s Truth:

statuses/41871

statuses/41857

statuses/41880

Bluesky:

atrupar.com/post/3mwceqev7ak2b

atrupar.com/post/3mwbqj54jv22a

danielsuitor.com/post/3mwbbiuggt22d

normeisen.bsky.social/post/3mwbtpfymnc2p

reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mwbunpcc322j

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A Good Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

As of 9am today, there were no homicides in D.C. this week. To date this year, D.C. has reported a total of 71* homicides this year. Last year, during the same time period, we had 107 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, there were 196 homicides during that same time period.

In property crimes, auto-related crimes spiked a bit, while other property crimes declined. Violent crimes remained constant. We’ll need more good weeks like this to have another 33 percent decline in homicides for the year–a rate of decline that began under Biden.

Hopefully, next week has zero homicides too.

*Three of the 74 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence).

Heroin, hitmen and black markets on Behavioral Grooves

The hosts of the podcast Behavioral Grooves open by chatting about heroin and hitmen, followed by a discussion among the three of us: 

  Behavioral Economics: When Markets Clash with Morals | Al Roth

"Horse meat, kidneys, prostitution. What happens when the things people want to buy, sell, and trade collide with what society has deemed “off-limits”? Nobel Prize-winning economist Alvin “Al” Roth joins us to explore the behavioral science behind controversial markets, from repugnance and social norms to black markets, incentives, and informed consent. We also dig into his work redesigning the kidney exchange market and how asking a different question can open up new possibilities for solving seemingly impossible problems.

Topics
[0:00] Intro and Speed Round with Alvin “Al” Roth
[9:21] What Is a Market?
[13:10] Repugnance vs. Disgust
[20:00] How Social Norms Shape Markets and Morality
[24:12] Do Laws Change Morality, or Does Morality Change Laws?
[28:25] Drugs, Hitmen, and the Social Support Behind a Ban
[34:23] Rethinking the Market for Prostitution
[38:12] Can Money Be Coercive?
[46:12] Redesigning Kidney Donation With Incentives
[50:42] What Do We Do When the Data Can't Change Minds?
[52:47] “Ought Implies Can” and the Limits of Moral Rules
[1:03:05] Grooving Session: What We Learned From Al Roth"

Moog Completes ISO Class 8 Clean Room at Niagara Falls Facility to Expand Thruster Production

Moog logo

East Aurora, NY — Moog Inc. (NYSE: MOG.A and MOG.B) announced the completion and commissioning of a new ISO Class 8 certified clean room at its Niagara Falls facility. This […]

The post Moog Completes ISO Class 8 Clean Room at Niagara Falls Facility to Expand Thruster Production appeared first on SpaceNews.

*My Dreadful Body*

By Egana Djabbarova of Azerbaijan.  A wonderful short novel, and as described by Olga Grjasnowa “An extraordinary novel that translates corporality and estrangement into language.”  Here is the Amazon link.

This has been a fantastic year for fiction, and in November I will be writing up a report.

The post *My Dreadful Body* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Reasoning together

Black and white photo of a man in glasses animatedly speaking to a group gathered around him in an indoor setting.

Jürgen Habermas, the great defender of deliberative democracy, lived up to its demands: he never feared changing his mind

- by Emilie Prattico

Read on Aeon

True or false on space industry trends with Pacôme Révillon

In this episode, SpaceNews’ Mike Gruss and Novaspace CEO Pacôme Révillon look at what to expect from the space industry in the next year by playing a game of true […]

The post True or false on space industry trends with Pacôme Révillon appeared first on SpaceNews.

The Ghosts of Five Supernovas

The Ghosts of Five Supernovas The Ghosts of Five Supernovas


Out Now: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV

Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.
Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.

Low-tech Magazine presents the fourth volume in the chronological book series. It contains twenty articles that were published online between 2022 and 2026. Three earlier volumes collect articles written and published online between 2007 and 2021, which are also bundled in the “Compressed Edition”.

This new volume is a bit different from the earlier books: eight of the articles are DIY guides or manuals, and we have grouped them together in the second part of the book. This volume covers the period that Marie Verdeil joined Low-tech Magazine, which partly shifted the focus from writing articles to building prototypes inspired by historical research. These prototypes also led us to conduct workshops in universities and participate in museum exhibitions.

As is the case with all of our books, the articles have been edited and improved compared to the original web versions. Some articles gained extra or better images. We rewrote two manuals, based on further experiences we gained since the publication of the originals. The book has 500 pages and contains 405 images in black and white.

You can order Low-tech Magazine Volume IV at our online bookstore, available as paperback and hardcover. The ebook is not yet available.

Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.
Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.

Contents table

ARTICLES:

MANUALS and GUIDES:

With contributions by: Kris De Decker, Marie Verdeil, Guillaume Lion, Kozimo, Andy Lagzdins.

The book design is a collaborative effort by Laia Comellas, Marie Verdeil, and Johanna Gratzer. Marie Verdeil made the cover, Vaiva Vinskaitė did the typesetting.

Earlier volumes:

Patrons have free access to all ebooks, and early access to print books at a reduced price. They also receive exclusive content, which includes previews of new building projects and behind-the-scenes news.

Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume I, II, III & IV  (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.
Image: Low-tech Magazine Volume I, II, III & IV (2022-2026). Photo: Juliette Demaret.

Oh my goodness I can't believe it

Oh my goodness I can't believe it

I have exciting news.

View on my website

Armenia notes

I strongly recommend a trip to Armenia, now is a great time to go.  Here are a few things I noticed:

1. The country remains intellectual.  The book fair is well attended.  The classical music season is excellent, with good concerts multiple times a week, and the theatre scene, in both Armenian and Russian, is active.  The country has only a little more than three million people, yet they have won gold medal in the chess Olympiad three times in recent memory.  You could say the country has maintained the (few) strengths of the former Soviet Union, and is arguably the only place that has.  It feels more like the former Soviet Union than Russia does.

2. The National Gallery has excellent Soviet and Russian paintings, while their Armenian collection is definitive.  The Medieval Manuscripts museum is first-rate.  Unfortunately, neither does anything to put images online, but all the more reason to go.

3. Armenian society is nearly 100% white and 100% Christian, as most of the immigrants (is that the right word here?) are Russian.  Crime is close to zero, and the cars stop when you try to cross the street.  Being a loyal northern Virginian, that mix is not “my thing.”  But if that is what you wish to experience, if only briefly, Armenia is the place that serves it up without apology.  Even secular Armenians have great respect for the national Apostolic church, as they view it as a guardian of Armenian independence.

4. The old monasteries are A level sights, and many of them are mere day trips from Yerevan, the capital.  Most of the tourists you see at these are Russians, not Westerners.  You also will see some Iranian tourists.

5. Yerevan is not great for old buildings, but the city is very walkable and pleasant and lively.  I believe the winters are brutal, but September there is wonderful, every day was perfect weather.

5b. In Armenia you will see how their brutalism in fact comes from their earlier religious architectural traditions, and how the newer churches embody modern brutalist ideas as well.  I found this very interesting.

6. I have a separate piece coming out on food in Armenia, for now I will just say it is excellent and novel as well.

7. Armenia is not dirt cheap, but it is much cheaper than most of Europe and so can be considered a bargain in relative terms.

8. Almost everyone in Yerevan speaks good Russian.  The influence of Russia is embedded in virtually every institution, people like Russia, Russia supplies most of their energy, and is the number one trading partner.  Russian troops protect them from Turkey.  A Russian does not even need a passport to enter and live in Armenia.  Russia is a permanent fixture in Armenian life, and most people do not seem to mind that.  They are very disappointed that Putin did not protect them more in the war with Azerbaijan, but that is their major source of discontent, not that Russia and Putin are evil.

9. Armenia has close relations with Iran, and Armenians do not seem to hate Iran.  They regard the country as a partial counterweight to Turkey, and for that matter Russia.  People in Armenia are very conscious of the x-risk represented by Turkey.  They also will speak to you about history in great detail, and they are very wrapped up in their past history.  They are very familiar with maps.

10. You can see Mount Ararat, supposed resting place of Noah’s Ark, from the outskirts of Yerevan.  It is beautiful.  It remains on the Armenian currency, and in the hearts of Armenians, yet it is now part of Turkey and is very likely to remain so.  Armenians refer to that part of Turkey as “Western Armenia.”

11. Here is someone else’s exaggerated take on the place, no it will not be the next Poland.

I would put it this way.  At any point in time, there are a few parts of the world that are perfect for visiting and viewing.  They should be comfortable, but still exotic and not overtouristed.  Not dangerous, and not too full of hassles, yet replete with challenging and stimulating experiences.  Yunnan in China is one such place.  Currently, aAzerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia all fit this designation.  They all have complex histories, and are not always in great shape, so now is the time to go.  They will never get better to visit, and right now they are pretty close to perfect as destinations.  See what you can, while you can.

The post Armenia notes appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Explosive Intensification for Hurricane Polo

modis
mur sst
Hurricane Polo, with a well-defined eye, swirls over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico. The storm was positioned just south of Acapulco, with its outer cloud bands extending inland toward Mexico City.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A map depicts sea surface temperature anomalies off Mexico's Pacific coast on September 23. Deep red areas highlight areas 3°C above the norm for that date. A dotted line traces the storm's path from September 20 to September 23 as it moved through the unusually warm waters.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
Hurricane Polo, with a well-defined eye, swirls over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico. The storm was positioned just south of Acapulco, with its outer cloud bands extending inland toward Mexico City.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
A map depicts sea surface temperature anomalies off Mexico's Pacific coast on September 23. Deep red areas highlight areas 3°C above the norm for that date. A dotted line traces the storm's path from September 20 to September 23 as it moved through the unusually warm waters.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
modis
mur sst
After rapidly intensifying, Hurricane Polo spins off Mexico’s Pacific coast on September 23, 2026 (left), over unusually warm waters (right). NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using data from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Aqua satellite and the MUR SST (Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature) project.

In mid-September 2026, Hurricane Polo began as a tropical disturbance off the Pacific coast of Mexico. By September 20, it was organized enough to qualify as a tropical depression, and by the next day it was a tropical storm.

From there, Polo launched into a period of rapid intensification that left meteorologists searching for adjectives strong enough to convey what was happening. Some described the storm’s rate of intensification and strength as “jaw-dropping,” others as “astonishing,” and others as “absolute insanity.”  

“Polo went through a period of what can only be described as explosively rapid intensification,” said Gary Partyka, an atmospheric scientist with the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, in an email. “This was RAPID, rapid intensification.”

The storm was in an environment that was “near perfect” for strengthening, Partyka said, characterized by weak wind shear, high moisture, warmer ocean temperatures, and high levels of atmospheric instability.

Several observers leaned on extreme rapid intensification—a technical classification meaning the storm’s wind speeds increased at least 60 knots (111 kilometers or 69 miles per hour) within a 24-hour period. By September 22, the storm’s maximum sustained wind speed had risen by 90 knots (167 kilometers per hour or 104 miles per hour) within 24 hours, hitting category 5 strength. In its normally staid forecast discussions, the National Hurricane Center called the intensification “truly remarkable.”

When NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew over the storm on September 22, researchers estimated winds of nearly 285 kilometers (180 miles) per hour. That would make it the third-strongest storm on record in the eastern Pacific by maximum sustained winds and the fastest on record to go from a tropical depression to a category 5 storm, according to some analysts.

On the afternoon of September 23, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image (left), Polo was churning off the coast of Guerrero, southwest of Acapulco. With maximum sustained winds of 230 kilometers (145 miles) per hour, the storm was category 4 strength when the image was acquired, having undergone an eyewall replacement cycle that weakened it slightly.

“The satellite imagery of Polo is very impressive, with the storm’s large, clear eye and extensive outflow pattern,” said Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric scientist at the State University of New York at Albany, who is working on a NASA project that uses satellite data to study tropical cyclone ventilation. “Weak winds above the system and good outflow at the top of the system also contributed to Polo’s rapid intensification.”

As Polo developed, it moved over areas where sea surface temperatures were as high as 32 degrees Celsius (90 degrees Fahrenheit)—2 to 3 degrees warmer than usual for September 23. Surface waters across much of the region were above 27.8°C (82°F), the temperature generally required to sustain and intensify hurricanes.

The map above (right) is based on data from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) project at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which blends satellite measurements from NASA, NOAA, and international missions with observations from ships and buoys. Rather than absolute temperatures, the map shows anomalies—how much warmer or cooler the ocean surface was on September 23, 2026, than the project’s 2003-2014 average for that date.

While the map above conveys temperatures at the water surface, the presence of warm water deeper in the column has likely contributed to the storm’s staying power, Corbosiero added. Sometimes hurricanes churn up cooler water from deep in the column that can slow a storm’s intensification, but in this case the cool water wake behind the storm appears minimal, and measurements and models show high ocean heat content at considerable depths.

Both Partyka and Corbosiero cautioned against attributing Polo’s rapid intensification directly to El Niño’s unusually warm surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Several hurricanes in this region have undergone rapid intensification in the past during La Niña and neutral conditions, Corbosiero noted, including Hurricane Otis in 2023 and Patricia in 2015, both category 5 storms.  

However, the overall amount of tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific does typically increase during El Niño due to changes in large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, and that’s what has happened so far in 2026. As of September 24, the accumulated cyclone energy in the region was nearly twice the norm, according to data from Colorado State University.

People tracking sea surface temperature anomalies or other aspects of the storm can do so using NASA’s Worldview browser, a near real-time data viewer from the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project, and the FLUID tool from GMAO. Forecasters expect Polo to stay over the Pacific until next week, when it may curve toward the northeast and approach Baja California.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using sea surface temperature data from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) project, MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview, and storm track data from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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The post Explosive Intensification for Hurricane Polo appeared first on NASA Science.

datasette 1.0a41

Release: datasette 1.0a41

Alec Garcia added support for OpenTelemetry to Datasette in this release.

I've also refactored all of Datasette's modal dialogs to a single Web Component, which is now documented for other plugins to use.

Tags: javascript, datasette, web-components, alex-garcia, opentelemetry

Donald the Deadbeat Does Diesel

There’s a strong whiff of desperation coming off the Republican Party these days, and it smells a lot like diesel fumes. All indications are that the G.O.P. is headed for a huge defeat in the midterms, and soaring prices of fuel — especially diesel — are a significant factor in the party’s dim prospects.

Now Trump is considering an export ban of American diesel in order to temporarily reduce domestic diesel prices. As of this morning, it’s unclear whether this will actually happen. But I think a diesel export ban is highly likely, and not just because it would be one of the few Hail Mary plays left for an epically corrupt president who must greatly fear the prospect of facing Democrats with subpoena power and criminal referrals.

Beyond that, a sudden ban on diesel exports would, in effect, be a broken promise — a de facto breach of multiple contracts. It would be a betrayal of energy companies that invested in refining capacity. More important, it would be a breach of trust with America’s allies, especially anyone who bought into Trump’s vision of an America-centered energy future.

And breaking trust, breaching contracts, is a very Trumpian thing to do. As a businessman, he was famous for stiffing contractors, refusing to pay them for their work or demanding that they settle for partial payment. His tariff policies involve, at their core, breaking decades’ worth of solemn international agreements. His track record on domestic policy has been one broken promise after another.

Before I get to the breach of contract aspect, a word about the short-term economics of a diesel export ban.

Jared Bernstein has a really clear explanation of why such a ban would do little to help most Americans with affordability problems. Much of it comes down to regional differences. U.S. diesel exports come from the Gulf Coast, and cutting off those exports would indeed temporarily reduce diesel prices in and around Texas, while driving prices up in the rest of the world. But in this case “the rest of the world” includes much of the United States. Both the Northeast and the West Coast buy much of their diesel (and heating oil, which is a closely related commodity) from other countries, so a ban on U.S. exports, by driving up world prices, would actually make energy more expensive in some parts of the country.

Also, refineries normally produce gasoline along with diesel, so if an export ban causes them to cut overall refining, gasoline prices might well go up.

Beyond these short-term considerations, think about the signals a diesel export ban would send.

During the 2024 campaign, “Drill, baby, drill” was one of Trump’s favorite slogans. In effect, he promised to provide a favorable political environment for the fossil fuel industry, which he claimed would cut energy prices in half within 18 months. (How’s that going?) But now even the oil industry knows that it can’t count on being able to sell its products, that Trump may suddenly, with no notice, cut it off from major markets whenever he thinks that might be to his short-term political advantage.

OK, nobody is going to shed tears for the U.S. oil and gas industry, which gave 88 percent of its donations to Republicans in the last election and has profited hugely from the effects of the Iran War. But even unlikable industries should be able to count on some consistency in government policy, rather than depending on the whims of a president motivated solely by ephemeral political considerations.

More important, think about what Trump is in effect saying to the world as a whole.

As I and many others have written, one key aspect of today’s geopolitics has been a competition between two visions of the world’s energy future. One vision centers on “electrotech” — electrification of cars and much else, powered by sun and wind. Given current trends, an electrotech world would be one largely dominated by Chinese production of solar panels, batteries and more.

The other vision involves continuing reliance on fossil fuels, with the United States — thanks to fracking — as a key supplier. The United States is, in effect, saying to the world, “never mind those wind farms and electric vehicles, keep installing gas turbines and using internal combustion — and don’t worry about where the fuel will come from, we can and will supply it. Trust us!”

Now the world knows that we can’t, in fact, be trusted as an energy supplier — that we may suddenly cut off fossil fuel exports whenever doing so might yield even temporary domestic political advantage.

So a diesel export ban would probably do little to assuage U.S. concerns about affordability. It would create uncertainty that deters business investment, in energy and other industries. And it would further weaken America’s hand in its geopolitical rivalry with China over energy.

In short, a ban would be a really bad idea. Which is why it’s probably going to happen.

MUSICAL CODA

Nothing to do with topic, but an old favorite.

commit-rewriter 0.2

Release: commit-rewriter 0.2

Support for branches other than the default branch. Use uvx commit-rewriter --branch other to run against another branch. #3

Tags: git

Malicious npm Packages That Evade Defenses

This is an impressive piece of malware. Its sophistication says nation-state to me, but there is no direct evidence and certainly no attribution.

Joanna Stern Interviews Mark Zuckerberg

Great interview from Stern, as usual, seemingly conducted on the old set of Three’s Company. She opened by asking if AI is going to wipe out humanity, and I think Zuck whiffed by not simply laughing and saying no. She also directly asked his thoughts on people calling Meta Glasses “pervert glasses”.

Regarding the shift from “the metaverse” to AI, Zuckerberg likened it to Apple having started work on touchscreen tablets and then pivoting to turn the technology into the iPhone first. His point being that it’s not that iPads weren’t a big successful idea, but they’re not as big as phones.

There are four big players in consumer AI: Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. I don’t think Zuckerberg mentioned any of the others by name — neither in his Meta Connect keynote, nor in this interview with Stern. But much of what he unveiled and explained, in both, makes the case for Meta as the leader in this space. Compared to Google, Meta is highly focused and Google is seemingly utterly unfocused. Focus matters when you’re trying to ship something new while exploring uncharted territory. Compared to OpenAI and Anthropic, Meta has consumer-product chops. If there’s no moat around the AI model technology — and I’m ever more convinced there is not — it’ll be the products AI is wrapped into that matter.

 ★ 

Meta Connect Keynote 2026

Meta’s annual keynote yesterday was a tight 55-minute live event held on their campus in Menlo Park. I watched the whole thing this morning, before recording tomorrow’s episode of Dithering. (Which you should subscribe to.)

It was a good keynote. Consumer products announced:

  • Third-generation Meta Glasses with cameras.

  • A new glasses product: Ray-Ban Meta Audio. These are audio-only smart glasses, with microphones and speakers, but no camera. Zuckerberg pitched them as being less expensive, having longer battery life, and looking much more like regular glasses. All of those things are true, but he deftly avoided the privacy backlash against glasses with cameras. They’re not that much less expensive than the camera models, starting at $350.

  • Meta VR Glasses. Slogan: “The weight is over.” Some similarities to Vision Pro: use cases include immersive movies and sports, virtual displays for computing, and gaming; the computer is a thick phone-sized puck connected to the glasses via a cable. Some significant differences from Vision Pro: Meta VR Glasses only weigh 100g; Vision Pro weighs 750–800g. It’s almost an order of magnitude difference by weight. Also: these are only going to cost $1,300. Not out yet, coming in “spring”. I used to think I’d at least use my Vision Pro when I fly, but I haven’t taken it with me on a flight in two years. It’s too big and too heavy — a small piece of carry-on luggage unto itself. By dint of their weight alone, Meta VR Glasses seem far more comfortable, and also far more portable. They look a lot more like regular sunglasses than Vision Pro (or Meta’s own Quest goggles) — but they definitely don’t look like regular sunglasses.

  • Meta Charm. A pendant/stopwatch-sized thing with a screen and fingerprint reader, that serves as a dedicated device for interacting with Muse. Will supposedly have 5G cellular connectivity in addition to Wi-Fi, but it’s not a phone. Vaporware at the moment but supposedly shipping by December. No price given. My daily “World in Brief” newsletter from The Economist described Charm thus: “Imagine a tiny smartphone that can’t do 95% of the things that the one in your pocket can.”

The star of the show wasn’t any of the hardware products but Meta Muse. Muse is the through line for Meta this year. If there’s one thing I think Zuckerberg did wrong in the keynote, it’s that he didn’t explain where Muse stands compared to Meta AI. I’m pretty sure that the answer is that Muse, as an AI agent, is a superset of Meta AI, a mere chatbot. If you use Muse, you should have no reason to use Meta AI; if you use Meta AI, Zuckerberg should have encouraged you to upgrade to Muse. I think that’s the gist. But it would have been good for Zuckerberg to explain it.

 ★ 

‘Apple Opens Apple Music Hall, a State-of-the-Art Live Music Venue in London’

Apple Newsroom:

Apple today announced the opening of Apple Music Hall, a brand-new state-of-the-art live music venue in London’s storied Battersea Power Station, designed to connect artists and fans through bespoke, intimate performances unlike anywhere else.

Apple might be the most interesting architecture company in the world this century. They have a core look and feel they apply to their own facilities built from the ground up (e.g., Apple Park, certain flagship retail stores), but they also have tremendous respect for historic buildings they take over.

The balconies in Apple Music Hall are bronze, but the lighting (at least in Apple’s photos) is so warm that the balconies look a little like giant Mac Minis.

 ★ 

Copland D11E4, Emulated in Your Browser

Michael Steil:

Apple’s ill-fated Copland operating system is notoriously hard to run on real hardware, and has not previously been available in emulation. Here is the last build, D11E4 from June 1996, in an improved DingusPPC.

Playing around with the GXSlidemaster app, I found a bug. The keyboard shortcut for File → Print One is ⌥⌘P, but the menu manager displays it as ⌘π (because Option-P is how you type a lowercase pi; add Shift to get an uppercase pi (∏)). I should file a Radar.

Anyway, I don’t think I’ve ever used Copland before. It wasn’t just hard to run on real hardware, but hard to get. It’s fun but kind of gross to see it boot up spewing console detritus rendered in good old bitmapped Monaco 9 (inside windows — even as an early developer build Apple was still Apple). There’s really not much there there, though. The only work they’d accomplished was under the hood, and there’s seemingly nothing of actual interest in the user interface.

 ★ 

Peter Thiel on AI and tech stagnation and democracy

Lots of fresh material, one of the very best Peter Thiel outputs.

The post Peter Thiel on AI and tech stagnation and democracy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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A Quick Poll Follow Up

I promise not to be writing a post about every new theory or hot take about contemporary polling. And I’ll make this one quick. Nate Silver has a post up today (I think paywalled) in response to a new batch of polls released by Times/Siena. These polls are broadly in line with other recent polls, with the exception that they show Susan Collins a few points ahead in Maine. But Silver notes something interesting: in Blue States November looks like a wave while in Red States it looks like a Tsunami. Is that odd? Not necessarily. There are three or four very concrete reasons that explain that why would be the case – stuff with shifts in specific constituencies, etc. But it’s also true that when we talk about poll misses in recent cycles some of the most extreme ones were in Red States. So perhaps the Tsunami is a mirage? My best guess is that that is not the case. And Silver doesn’t really seem to think so either. But I think it’s worth keeping in the back of our collective minds. As I noted in yesterday’s piece, the best evidence that a big storm is coming is that Republicans themselves are telling us one’s coming. They’re telling us with their actions. I think they know. Of course, at a more fundamental level none of us know the future.

Victoria Song on Meta Muse’s Cuteness

Victoria Song, in her Optimizer column/newsletter for The Verge:

I’ve been aggressively avoiding Muse since it launched a few weeks ago. Sure, some of that is because I was busy testing other devices. But the number-one reason why is that I am horribly vulnerable when faced with extreme cuteness.

Alas, at Meta Connect, I couldn’t escape this pink-cheeked fella with his plush ivory fur, and so I finally downloaded the app once I returned to my hotel room. He was plastered on every screen during the keynote. My eye twitched with maximum cute aggression when Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth showed us his Muse agent Cooper. The duderino was dressed in a lil pilot outfit because he’s Boz’s test pilot. My face scrunched with rage when Cooper picked up his pudgy round arms to wave. It’s the cutest thing I’ve ever seen at a tech keynote. The tiny demon in my head thought to itself, “I WANT TO SQUISH ITS LITTLE FACE.” [...]

Most people I know would say that Meta stuffing an AI agent into everything and anything feels sinister. Now look at Jolly’s little smile. Tell me it doesn’t make the corners of your mouth twitch slightly upward. If you honestly say no, you’re stronger than I am.

What attracted Song to Muse is what has, to be honest, turned me off. I don’t think it’s because I’m stronger than Song. I just think it’s weird that Muse wants me to give it a name and design a cartoon mascot for it. My impression of Muse isn’t that it’s even vaguely cute. I’m not stupid. I see that it’s supposed to be cute. I can see why some people see it as cute in the way it’s clearly intended to be cute. But I just see it as phony. And I despise phoniness as much as Holden Caulfield did.

My wife and son both love cilantro. I can’t stand it. I’m one of those people who thinks it tastes not just like soap, but soap that I’d regret washing my hands with because if I did I’d hate how my hands smell and I’d want to find another sink with different soap to scrub that off. I don’t have better taste than my wife or son. (My wife says quite the opposite.) It just registers differently for me.

Muse’s cutesy appearance and tone hits my mind like cilantro hits my tongue. I want my humans and animals warm, and my computers cold. Fun? Sure! But not cute. That’s a fine line between fun and cute, but I know it when I see it, just as surely as I know when something has cilantro in it.

 ★ 

Thursday 24 September 1663

Up betimes, and after taking leave of my brother, John, who went from me to my father’s this day, I went forth by water to Sir Philip Warwick’s, where I was with him a pretty while; and in discourse he tells me, and made it appear to me, that the King cannot be in debt to the Navy at this time 5,000l.; and it is my opinion that Sir G. Carteret do owe the King money, and yet the whole Navy debt paid. Thence I parted, being doubtful of myself that I have not, spoke with the gravity and weight that I ought to do in so great a business. But I rather hope it is my doubtfulness of myself, and the haste which he was in, some very great personages waiting for him without, while he was with me, that made him willing to be gone. To the office by water, where we sat doing little, now Mr. Coventry is not here, but only vex myself to see what a sort of coxcombs we are when he is not here to undertake such a business as we do. In the afternoon telling my wife that I go to Deptford, I went, by water to Westminster Hall, and there finding Mrs. Lane, took her over to Lambeth, where we were lately, and there, did what I would with her, but only the main thing, which she would not consent to, for which God be praised … [and yet I came so near, that I was provoked to spend. – L&M] But, trust in the Lord, I shall never do so again while I live. After being tired with her company I landed her at White Hall, and so home and at my office writing letters till 12 at night almost, and then home to supper and bed, and there found my poor wife hard at work, which grieved my heart to see that I should abuse so good a wretch, and that is just with God to make her bad with me for my wrongin of her, but I do resolve never to do the like again. So to bed.

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No, you are not on Indigenous land

I’ve been dealing with more rabbit problems today, so here’s a repost to tide you over til tomorrow.

The Republican party has become an extremist party. ICE’s brutal campaign of terror in American communities, Trump’s attacks on press freedoms and election integrity, the coup attempt of 1/6/2021, Trump’s military threats toward Greenland, and friendliness toward Vladimir Putin are only a few of the more prominent examples of this extremism. And they’re probably going to be punished for it in November; polls show rapidly deteriorating support for both Donald Trump and the GOP that has fallen in behind him.

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Good. Extremism ought to be punished. I’ll have lots more to say about the Republicans’ failures in the days to come.

But even though Democrats deserve to win, that doesn’t mean they’re free from the creeping extremism that has taken over essentially all of American politics and public discourse in the age of social media. Although Dems are not nearly as extremist as the GOP, they have become a much more ideologically extreme party than they were during the days of Obama. Dems’ extremist positions include dogged opposition to any form of effective immigration enforcement, tolerance of systematic (and systemic) racial discrimination, various trans issues, and…land acknowledgements.

Land acknowledgements? Really?? Isn’t that just a respectful way of acknowledging that the land we’re on used to belong to Indigenous people? Isn’t it just a way of saying “Hey Indigenous people, we haven’t forgotten you”?

Well…no. As I wrote in a post two years ago — still one of my most popular posts of all time — land acknowledgements don’t just recognize Indigenous people. They are a way of fundamentally delegitimizing the United States — of declaring that this is a country that has no right to exist. And beyond that, land acknowledgements implicitly advance a theory of collective racial ownership of territory that is morally indistinguishable from the worst blood-and-soil nationalism of the racist far Right.

Nor are land acknowledgements a fringe practice, limited to progressive cultural spaces. As Dave Weigel recently reported, they have become a sort of ritualistic utterance at Democratic Party events:

Democrats' decision to formalize land acknowledgments in their party meetings could haunt their candidates more than they realize…A tradition of naming historic Native tribes during regional events that started in Australia before spreading to Canada, arriving in the US via art exhibitions, is now part of every major party event…The 2016 Democratic convention did not contain a land acknowledgment. But the practice of beginning events with a nod to slaughtered tribes and "stolen" land spread during President Barack Obama's second term and Trump's first term, along with other progressive ideas about race and history…Democrats did not have campus conferences where they agreed to embrace language that conservatives see as anti-American…They just adopted the terminology when activists told them it was a good idea.

Land acknowledgements are not a big electoral issue. But in the long term, they represent — and contribute to — the creeping rise of anti-American and illiberal ideology on the broad American left. That will probably be an electoral liability at some point, but more fundamentally, it’s a departure from the liberal nationalist ideology that made the Democrats such an effective governing party in the 20th century.

So anyway, here’s my post from 2024.


The United States, like all nations, was created through territorial conquest. Most of its current territory was occupied or frequented by human beings before the U.S. came; the U.S. used force to either displace, subjugate, or kill all of those people. To the extent that land “ownership” existed under the previous inhabitants, the land of the U.S. is stolen land.

This was also true before the U.S. arrived. The forcible theft of the land upon which the U.S. now exists was not the first such theft; the people who lived there before conquered, displaced, or killed someone else in order to take the land. The land has been stolen and re-stolen again and again. If you somehow destroyed the United States, expelled its current inhabitants, and gave ownership of the land to the last recorded tribe that had occupied it before, you would not be returning it to its original occupants; you would simply be handing it to the next-most-recent conquerors.

If you go back far enough in time, of course, at some point this is no longer true. Humanity didn’t always exist; therefore for every piece of land, there was a first human to lay eyes on it, and a first human to say “This land is mine.” But by what right did this first human claim exclusive ownership of this land? Why does being the first person to see a natural object make you the rightful owner of that object? And why does being the first human to set foot on a piece of land give your blood descendants the right to dispose of that land as they see fit in perpetuity, and to exclude any and all others from that land? What about all the peoples of the world who were never lucky enough to be the first to lay eyes on any plot of dirt? Are they simply to be dispossessed forever?

I have never seen a satisfactory answer to these questions. Nor have I seen a satisfactory explanation of why ownership of land should be allocated collectively, in terms of racial or ethnic groups. In general, the first people who arrived on a piece of land did so in dribs and drabs, in small family units and tiny micro-tribes that met and married and fought and mixed and formed into larger identities and ethnicities and tribes over long periods of time. In most cases, the ethnic groups who now claim pieces of land as their own did not even exist when the first humans discovered or settled that land.

But even in those cases when it did exist, why should land ownership be assigned to a race at all? Why should my notional blood relation to the discoverers or the conquerors of a piece of land determine whether I can truly belong on that land? Why should a section of the map be the land of the Franks, or the Russkiy, or the Cherokee, or the Han, or the Ramaytush Ohlone, or the Britons? Of course you can assign land ownership this way — it’s called an “ethnostate”. But if you do this, it means that the descendants of immigrants can never truly be full and equal citizens of the land they were born in. If Britain is defined as the land of the Britons, then a Han person whose great-great-great-grandparents moved there from China will exist as a contingent citizen — a perpetual foreigner whose continued life in the land of their birth exists only upon the sufferance of a different race. This is the price of ethnonationalism.

The downsides of ethnonationalism have been exhaustively laid out in the decades since World War 2, and I’m not going to reiterate them all now. Suffice it to say that most nations of the world have moved away from ethnonationalism — there is an informal sense in which some people still think of France as the land of the Franks and so on, but almost all nations define citizenship and belonging through institutions rather than race. Israel, one of the few exceptions to this rule, receives a large amount of international criticism for defining itself as an ethnostate.

And yet these days I am subjected to a constant stream of ethnonationalist claims from progressives in the country of my birth. Here’s one from the ACLU of Nebraska:

And here’s an Instagram post from Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib:

This isn’t just something you see on social media around Thanksgiving. “Land acknowledgements” have become ubiquitous in progressive spaces and institutions — just the other day I saw one at my friend’s community dance recital.

These land acknowledgements are, legally speaking, incorrect — there is no legal sense in which the land on which they are being performed belongs to a Native American tribe. These are moral claims about rightful land ownership. But the moral principle to which they appeal is ethnonationalism — it’s the idea that plots of land are the rightful property of ethnic groups.

There is an obvious moral appeal to these land acknowledgments. They are a way of decrying the brutal, cruel, violent history of conquest and colonization. And they probably feel like a way of standing up for the weak, the marginalized, and the dispossessed.

Yet what should we think of the morality of following the principles behind land acknowledgements to their logical conclusion? “Decolonization” of the land of the U.S. would likely be an act of ethnic cleansing surpassing even the previous conquests — there are 330 million people here now, and almost none of them descend from Native Americans. An attempt to dispossess 330 million people would inevitably involve violence on a colossal scale. Here was Najma Sharif Alawi’s famous tweet right after the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel:

Of course, “colonizers” could presumably avoid violent death or second-class citizenhood by voluntarily deporting themselves. But where would they go? Take me, for example. My ancestors were Lithuanian Jews. I could leave the country of my birth and go “back” to Lithuania — a land I don’t know, whose language I don’t speak. Yet my ancestors were not “indigenous” to Lithuania either; they moved there from somewhere else. What if the ethnic Lithuanians chose not to accept me? Where would I go then? Israel? But the folks who do land acknowledgements would consider me a “colonizer” there as well.1

Would I then wander the Earth, desperately seeking some ethnostate that would allow me and my descendants to live there as a permanently precarious resident aliens?

Once the logic of land acknowledgements and “decolonization” is followed, it leads very quickly to some very dark futures. Assigning each person a homeland based on their ethnic ancestry, and then declaring that that homeland is the only place they or their descendants can ever truly belong, would not be an act of justice; it would be a global nightmare made real, surpassing even the horrors of previous centuries.

And in practice, any attempt to create such a world would inevitably lead to violent resistance by the groups in danger of being “decolonized”. The orderly world of nation-states would dissolve into a chaotic free-for-all of competing irredentist claims, backed by genocides and expulsions. Ten thousand October 7th-style attacks would be followed by ten thousand Gaza-style wars.

I do not want that, and you should not want it either. The American people certainly don’t want it, and the insistence of progressives on intoning land acknowledgements has probably tanked the movement’s cachet in wider society. I agree with “Wanye Burkett” when he says that land acknowledgements have probably hurt the Democratic party:

Americans do not want to see their country destroyed in the name of irredentist ethnonationalism. Nor do I blame them.

So does this mean we should paper over, ignore, or deliberately forget America’s history of violent conquest? Absolutely not. That history ought to be remembered, so that we don’t repeat it in the present day. The world’s evolution from one based on ethnic cleansing and territorial conquest to one based on fixed borders and institutions is something to celebrate — and something we must fight to preserve. We need to remember what the world used to be like, precisely so we can avoid backsliding. The most recent of conquests, expulsions, and genocides should be the last to ever happen.

And what of the Native Americans who still live in America today? Must they simply be regarded as the unlucky losers of history, and told to either assimilate into broader American society or shut up?

Absolutely not. For one thing, tribal organizations still exist — they may notionally represent ethnic groups, but they are institutions. And they are institutions with which the United States has many agreements and legal obligations that must be honored, which often give the tribes sovereignty over areas of land. Neil Gorsuch has been especially active in pushing the Supreme Court to uphold tribal rights, and I think this is a good thing.

But respect for Native American tribal organizations doesn’t have to stop at ancient obligations. There are ways to incorporate those tribes into the modern American nation that both respects them and their history and helps them prosper in the present.

Vancouver, Canada shows us an example of how this can be done. Part of Vancouver’s downtown urban area is officially under the governance of the Squamish Nation, rather than the city itself. The Squamish Nation, realizing they could do whatever they wanted with that land, decided to build a giant high-rise housing development:

Over the next few years, that skyline will get a very large new addition: Sen̓áḵw, an 11-tower development that will [put] 6,000 apartments onto just over 10 acres of land in the heart of the city. Once complete, this will be the densest neighbourhood in Canada, providing thousands of homes for Vancouverites who have long been squeezed between the country’s priciest real estate and some of its lowest vacancy rates.

Sen̓áḵw is big, ambitious and undeniably urban—and undeniably Indigenous. It’s being built on reserve land owned by the Squamish First Nation, and it’s spearheaded by the Squamish Nation itself, in partnership with the private real estate developer Westbank. Because the project is on First Nations land, not city land, it’s under Squamish authority, free of Vancouver’s zoning rules. And the Nation has chosen to build bigger, denser and taller than any development on city property would be allowed.

Here’s a picture of what it will look like:

Source: Sen̓áḵw

An even bigger development called Jericho Lands is now being planned, by a consortium of tribal organizations, on land officially owned by Vancouver.

Hilariously, Vancouver’s NIMBYs are complaining, claiming that the developments are not in keeping with Indigenous tradition. But Canada’s First Nations seem to have little interest in hewing closely to other people’s view of what their traditions are. Modern people do not want to live like premodern farmers. They are not mystical Tolkien elves. They would like to have shiny new apartment buildings and walkable neighborhoods.

This, I believe, is the key to respecting and honoring Native Americans — not to focus on the tragedies of their past, but to give them the right to build a better future. Tribal lands should definitely have the autonomy to do whatever they want with their lands, including building housing or industry. In fact, we’re starting to see a pattern emerge where Native Americans embrace laissez-faire policies toward industry and manage to poach business from their over-regulated neighbors:

Tesla is ramping up efforts to open showrooms on tribal lands where it can sell directly to consumers, circumventing laws in states that bar vehicle manufacturers from also being retailers in favor of the dealership model…

Mohegan Sun, a casino and entertainment complex in Connecticut owned by the federally recognized Mohegan Tribe, announced this week that the California-based electric automaker will open a showroom with a sales and delivery center this fall on its sovereign property where the state’s law doesn’t apply…The news comes after another new Tesla showroom was announced in June, set to open in 2025 on lands of the Oneida Indian Nation in upstate New York.

This sort of thing could lead to a win-win for the U.S. and Native American tribes. American reindustrialization is being held back by a thicket of procedural requirements and local land-use regulations; if tribes were able to use their special legal status to circumvent those barriers, it could end up benefitting everyone.2 The tribes would get both jobs and the ability to tax local industry; America would get to execute an end run around the NIMBYs that are holding it back.

In fact, it’s probably possible for various American cities to turn over parts of their land to tribal jurisdiction, with the assistance of the federal government. This would probably result in dense urban developments like the ones being planned in Vancouver. But even if it didn’t, it could have other commercial benefits — again, a win-win for the U.S. and for the tribes. That would certainly be a lot more substantive than a bunch of land acknowledgements. And it would likely satisfy many people’s desire for “giving land back” to Native Americans, without embracing dubious moral principles of ethnic land rights and irredentism.

In other words, you’re not living on Indigenous land right now, but you could be in the future — and it might be pretty great.

The general principle here is that instead of a dark world of ethnic cleansing in the name of “decolonization”, we should try to build a bright future where Native Americans and the United States of America exist in harmony and cooperation rather than in conflict. And that principle doesn’t just apply to America, but to the whole world. The history of land ownership is a violent and terrible one, but that doesn’t mean the future has to be more of the same.


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1

It is a bitter irony that many of the same people who morally condemn Israel for setting itself up as an ethnostate also justify its destruction using ethnonationalist principles. Personally, I tend to agree with the criticism of Israel’s ethnocentrism, but I don’t think replacing this with Palestinian ethnocentrism would make things better.

2

There’s a lot of historical precedent for this. For example, in the 1960s, Fairchild Semiconductor opened a factory on Navajo land in New Mexico, which was quite beneficial to the economy until an industry downturn and a labor dispute led to its demise in the late 70s.

NASA announces new space telescope ‘PRIMA’ to launch in 2033

An artist’s rendering of the PRIMA Observatory. Graphic: NASA/JPL-Caltech

On the heels of launching its Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, NASA announced a new observatory, the Probe far-Infrared Mission for Astrophysics or PRIMA.

The agency said Wednesday PRIMA was moving into what’s referred to as Phase B development. That allows for further development of the preliminary design and for NASA to conduct technical and budget reviews.

If approved, PRIMA will move forward into Phase C with a max project cost of $1.2 billion, not including launch and other costs.

PRIMA also ushers in a new class of missions within NASA’s Explorers Program: Probe Explorers. It will be developed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in collaboration with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and Marshall Space Flight Center as well as the space agencies of Canada, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.

The California Institute of Technology’s (Caltech) Infrared Processing & Analysis Center (IPAC) is designated as the mission science center “where raw data from the telescope is received, processed, and archived for use by astronomers seeking to answer some of the universe’s deepest mysteries,” according to Caltech.

“The PRIMA mission is humanity’s next window into the deep universe. It will unveil the obscure across cosmic time to better understand the formation of planets, stars, black holes, and even how water on Earth came to be,” said Nicky Fox, associate administrator, Science Mission Directorate, NASA Headquarters in Washington.

PRIMA features three primary instruments for observations:

  • A cryogenically cooled 1.8-meter telescope
  • An imaging polarimeter (PRIMAger)
  • A high-resolution spectrometer (FIRESS)

The detectors stem from three decades of research conducted by Caltech and JPL (managed by Caltech). They helped develop the type of detectors featured on PRIMA that will allow it to operate its far-infrared cameras and spectrometer.

“PRIMA represents a giant leap for far-infrared astronomy,” said Caltech President Ray Jayawardhana. “By combining detector technology pioneered by our colleagues with deep scientific expertise across Caltech, JPL, and IPAC, PRIMA will help reveal fundamental cosmic processes that have long been hidden from view.”

PRIMA is scheduled to launch in 2033. NASA will select a launch provider at a later time.

NASA chief concerned China may deny access to parts of Moon's south pole

Last month, China delayed the launch of an ambitious robotic mission to the south pole of the Moon, Chang’e 7, until early next year. The country did not provide a detailed explanation for the schedule slip, but it was welcomed by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman.

"They are targeting the exact same location on lunar south pole," Isaacman said Wednesday evening at the Off World conference in Houston. "We may have dodged a bullet with the Chang'e 7 mission a couple of weeks ago because that would have gone to the Shackleton crater."

Much of the lunar surface is pretty barren, but the south pole, and the Shackleton Crater in particular, offers some of the most coveted real estate there. That's because the high rims of the crater create permanently shadowed regions known as “cold traps,” where it’s thought that water (in the form of ice, of course) and other useful materials may have accumulated over billions of years.

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Red Sox & Yankees Will Meet In ALWC On Tuesday

The Red Sox and Yankees are expected to meet in one of the two American League Wild Card series next Tuesday. Boston can grab the AL's #5 seed with a win tonight. The series will be a best-of-3, with all of the games in the Bronx. . . . Will the Red Sox ring in YED 2026 on September 30 or October 1?

The Red Sox are in the postseason thanks to a historic 30-game stretch in which they went 27-3 (.900), a stretch that stands in stark contrast to the 58-70 record (.453) in games before and after that period.

0326-0701:  37-48 .435
0702-0807:  27- 3 .900
0808-0923:  21-22 .488
            85-73 .538 (4 games remaining)

Lefty Garrett Crochet (2025 AL Cy Young runner-up) hasn't pitched in a game since April 25, because of left shoulder inflammation. On Tuesday, he threw 16 pitches of batting practice, hitting 96 mph.

I would say the way that live just went, that I could go get outs. It depends obviously what role they want me in. . . . I know myself, and I know my body, and the biggest thing was that I felt good out there. Felt like I was able to ramp up intensity to a place that I haven't gone yet.

Ian Browne reports that Aroldis Chapman is back after missing about two weeks with a lat issue. "I'm happy to be back. . . . I feel like I'm at 100 percent right now." Manager Chad Tracy expects to have his set-up-closing trio of Tyron Guerrero, Garrett Whitlock and Chapman for the ALWC.

Tracy's starters for this week's series against Cleveland were Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez, but he has not yet confirmed that would be the order against the Yankees. . . . Gray's 2.72 ERA is 8th in MLB, 5th in the AL. Tolle (3.03) and Suarez (3.23) are not too far behind in ERA.

The Red Sox went 6-7 against the Yankees this season. Boston's four-game sweep at Fenway (June 25-28) was a bit of a prelude to their 27-3 run.

In 2021, the Red Sox beat the Yankees 6-2 in the Wild Card Game. In the 2025 ALWC, the Yankees defeated the Red Sox 4-3 and 4-0 after Boston won the first game 3-1.

Will perennial IL-lodger and postseason whiff-machine* A-A-Ron Judge play in the series? Judge (right calf strain) said he'll be ready to play ("that's what the plan is"), but his manager said the exact opposite. "We're planning on him not being a part of [the ALWC]." . . . Craig Calcaterra reports that this is "the third or fourth time since Judge came off of his long IL stint this season that he's either contradicted what someone on his team said or otherwise did not go along with the expected flow of ballplayer communications".

*: If strikeouts were hits, Judge would have a .370 postseason batting average (91-for-246). . . . His actual average, in 65 career post-season games, is an unimpressive .236 (58-for-246).

Oregon DOT: First, third, and nearly worst

Here are two facts that the members of the Governor’s Transportation Vision Task Force ought to have top of mind as they contemplate recommendations for addressing the state’s transportation future.

National data show that Oregon is at the top and bottom of two lists that basically tell them everything they need to know about how badly the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) is performing.

ODOT has the second worst  preservation and maintenance funding gap of any state

ODOT has the first and third most expensive per mile highway projects in the nation

Oregon’s transportation finance problems stem from spending way too much on expensive megaprojects, and completing neglecting basic maintenance and preservation of roads and bridges.  The only solution is for priorities to change.

Second to Last in Preservation and Maintenance

First, when it comes to spending to preserve and maintain state roads and highways, ODOT ranks second to last among all states.  As reported by the Capital Chronicle, according to the independent Pew Center, and based on Federal Highway Administration data, Oregon has the second largest gap between preservation and maintenance needs and the amount it actually spends.

Pew’s “Gap to Expenditure” (GTE) ratio measures how much the state needs to spend to preserve and maintain its roads and bridges, compared to its calculated expenditures, both over a ten-year forward-looking period.  Oregon’s 161% gap means that it needs to spend about 161 percent more than it is currently spending on preservation and maintenance to meet its identified needs.  And the gap is enormous:  According to Pew’s analysis  Oregon needs an additional $4.8 billion over ten years just to bring maintenance and preservation in line with identified need.

First and Third in Most Expensive Highway Projects

While Oregon is at the bottom of the preservation and maintenance list, its another list that shows ODOT’s true priorities:  According to our tabulation of the most expensive (per mile) highway projects currently moving forward in the United States, two ODOT projects rank first and third nationally as being the most expensive.

The two Portland area projects are the #1 and #3 most expensive highway projects (per mile) in the nation. The 5-mile  long Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) clocks in  at about $3 billion/mile and the 1.5 mile Rose Quarter at about $2.3 billion/mile.   Portland ara projects highlighted in red.

 

Top 10 Most Expensive U.S. Highway Projects by Cost per Mile

Centerline cost per mile ($ Millions).

Interstate Bridge Replacement (OR/WA)
$3,000M / mi

Brooklyn-Queens Expressway Central (NY)
$2,667M / mi

I-5 Rose Quarter Improvement Project (OR)
$2,333M / mi

Allston I-90 Multimodal Project (MA)
$1,333M / mi

NJ Turnpike Hudson County Extension (NJ)
$1,321M / mi

I-84 Hartford Mobility / Replacement Plan (CT)
$1,250M / mi

I-10 Calcasieu River Bridge Replacement (LA)
$564M / mi

Highway 37 Reconstruction (CA)
$523M / mi

Washington Bridge I-195 Replacement (RI)
$500M / mi

I-94 East-West Corridor (WI)
$486M / mi

 

 

These data suggest that Oregon is not simply a representative victim of highway cost inflation, but is actively the worst DOT in the nation in managing highway project costs.  That conclusion is  also consistent with data on construction costs compiled by Yale University’s Zachary Liscow, who found that Oregon’s costs for routine road repairs were about double the national average.

Oregon’s Misplaced Priorities

The fact that Oregon ranks at the bottom for preservation and maintenance and at the top for most expensive highway projects is no coincidence.  Rather, its indicative of seriously skewed priorities.  For years, ODOT has short-changed maintaining the state’s roads, and instead devoted more and more revenue to giant construction projects, which are consistently blowing through their budgets with billions of dollars in cost-overruns.  And just to be clear, ODOT’s current biggest projects aren’t preservation and maintenance.  The I-5 Rose Quarter project doubles the width of the I-5 freeway.  The bulk of the cost of the so-called “Interstate Bridge Replacement” isn’t actually “replacing” the bridge:  it is rebuilding seven freeway interchanges and widening five miles of freeway.  And ODOT has mightily resisted any efforts to “right-size” these projects (as other states have done, in the face of rising costs and diminished revenues).

If the Governor’s “Vision” task force has any vision, it has to be correcting this fundamental imbalance between taking care of the assets we have, rather than squandering a fortune on a handful of projects of questionable benefit.

Appendix:  Most expensive highway projects in the US, by state

 

Rank State Project Estimated Cost Length Cost per Mile (Centerline)
1 Oregon/Washington Interstate Bridge Replacement (WA/OR I-5) $15.0 Billion ~5.0 mi $3,000.0M / mi
2 New York Brooklyn Queens Expressway Central Project (Brooklyn) $4.0 Billion ~1.5 mi $2,667 M / mi
3 Oregon I-5 Rose Quarter Improvement Project $3.5 Billion ~1.5 mi $2,333 M / mi
4 Massachusetts Allston I-90 Multimodal Project (Boston) $2.0 Billion ~1.5 mi $1,333.3M / mi
5 New Jersey New Jersey Turnpike Hudson County Extension $10.7 Billion ~8.1 mi $1,321.0M / mi
6 Connecticut I-84 Hartford Mobility / Replacement Plan $5.0 Billion ~4.0 mi $1,250.0M / mi
7 Louisiana I-10 Calcasieu River Bridge Replacement (Lake Charles) $3.1 Billion ~5.5 mi $563.6M / mi
8 Texas North Houston Highway Improvement Project (I-45) $13.0 Billion ~24.0 mi $542.0M / mi
9 California Highway 37 (Santa Rosa/Vallejo) $11.0 Billion ~21.0 mi $523.0M / mi
10 Rhode Island Washington Bridge I-195 Emergency Replacement $400 Million ~0.8 mi $500.0M / mi
11 Wisconsin I-94 East-West Corridor (Milwaukee) $1.7 Billion ~3.5 mi $485.7M / mi
12 Ohio/Kentucky Brent Spence Bridge Corridor (OH/KY Shared) $3.6 Billion ~8.0 mi $450.0M / mi
13 Virginia Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel (HRBT) Expansion $3.9 Billion ~9.9 mi $393.9M / mi
14 Maryland I-495 & I-270 Capital Beltway Managed Lanes $1.5 Billion ~4.0 mi $375.0M / mi
15 Alabama I-10 Mobile River Bridge & Bayway $3.5 Billion ~10.0 mi $350.0M / mi
16 Georgia I-285 / GA-400 Interchange & Top End Express Lanes $4.6 Billion ~16.0 mi $287.5M / mi
17 South Carolina I-526 Lowcountry Corridor (Charleston) $4.0 Billion ~14.0 mi $285.7M / mi
18 Nevada Project Neon / I-15 Trop-LVC Improvement (Las Vegas) $1.0 Billion ~3.7 mi $270.3M / mi
19 Utah I-15 Expansion & Bottleneck Fix (Salt Lake County) $3.7 Billion ~17.0 mi $217.6M / mi
20 Illinois Tri-State Tollway (I-294) Expansion $4.0 Billion ~22.0 mi $181.8M / mi
21 Oklahoma I-44 / I-235 Interchange Expansion (Oklahoma City) $680 Million ~4.5 mi $151.1M / mi
22 Pennsylvania Mon-Fayette Expressway (PA Route 43 Extension) $2.1 Billion ~14.0 mi $150.0M / mi
23 Arkansas I-30 Crossing Project (Little Rock) $1.00 Billion ~7.3 mi $137.0M / mi
24 Hawaii Honolulu Rail/H-1 Corridor Integration $650 Million ~5.0 mi $130.0M / mi
25 Colorado Central 70 Project (Denver) $1.2 Billion ~10.0 mi $120.0M / mi
26 Tennessee Choice Lanes Program (I-24 / I-65 Nashville Corridor) $3.0 Billion ~26.0 mi $115.4M / mi
27 Florida I-4 Ultimate / Beyond the Ultimate Corridor $2.3 Billion ~21.0 mi $109.5M / mi
28 Iowa I-80 / I-380 System Interchange (Iowa City) $387 Million ~4.0 mi $96.8M / mi
29 North Carolina Complete 540 / NC 540 Triangle Expressway $2.2 Billion ~28.0 mi $78.6M / mi
30 Michigan I-75 Modernization (Oakland County) $1.0 Billion ~18.0 mi $55.6M / mi
31 Delaware U.S. 301 Toll Road Extension $636 Million ~12.5 mi $50.9M / mi
32 New Mexico I-25 / I-40 “Big I” & South Corridor Upgrades $250 Million ~5.0 mi $50.0M / mi
33 North Dakota I-94 / I-29 Tri-Level Interchange Rebuild (Fargo) $95 Million ~2.0 mi $47.5M / mi
34 Idaho I-86 / I-15 System Interchange Rebuild (Pocatello) $112 Million ~2.5 mi $44.8M / mi
35 Maine I-95 / Hampden Bridge & Corridor Rebuild $85 Million ~2.0 mi $42.5M / mi
36 Minnesota I-494 Airport to Hwy 169 Corridor $377 Million ~9.0 mi $41.9M / mi
37 New Hampshire I-93 Widening (Salem to Manchester) $800 Million ~19.8 mi $40.4M / mi
38 Mississippi I-20 / I-55 West Jackson Corridor Improvements $180 Million ~4.5 mi $40.0M / mi
39 West Virginia Corridor H (Elkins to West Virginia/Virginia State Line) $1.20 Billion ~30.0 mi $40.0M / mi
40 Arizona I-10 Wild Horse Pass Corridor Expansion $1.0 Billion ~26.0 mi $38.5M / mi
41 South Dakota I-29 / 85th Street Interchange (Sioux Falls) $65 Million ~2.0 mi $32.5M / mi
42 Nebraska US-77 South Lincoln Beltway $352 Million ~11.0 mi $32.0M / mi
43 Kansas U.S. 69 Express Lanes (Overland Park Expansion) $570 Million ~18.0 mi $31.7M / mi
44 Vermont U.S. Route 2 / I-89 Reconfiguration (Chittenden) $45 Million ~1.5 mi $30.0M / mi
45 Alaska Seward Highway Upgrades (MP 75–90 / MP 100–105) $380 Million ~20.0 mi $19.0M / mi
46 Montana I-90 Missoula Corridor Reconstruction $140 Million ~8.0 mi $17.5M / mi
47 Indiana I-69 Finish Line (Evansville to Indianapolis) $2.0 Billion ~142.0 mi $14.1M / mi
48 Missouri Improve I-70 Statewide Program (3-Lane Expansion) $2.8 Billion ~200.0 mi $14.0M / mi
49 Wyoming I-80 Elk Mountain / Winter Safety Corridor Upgrades $85 Million ~15.0 mi $5.7M / mi

Methodology

There’s no single, authoritative list of current and planned highway projects, so as a first step, we enlisted the assistance of Google’s Gemini AI to compile a list of what it found to be the most expensive current highway project in each of the 50 states, ranked by millions of dollars per centerline mile of project length (a rough yardstick of project scale).  The usual caveats apply about AI-generated content, but at first glance, the list reflects most of the well-known projects underway around the country.

We’ve also surveyed colleagues from around the nation, and invited anyone to submit information about ongoing or planned projects that belong on this list.  (As promised, we’re periodically updating the list as we acquire more accurate information, and we invite readers to offer corrections and amplifications).

 

 

Links 9/24/26

Links for you. Science:

Russell Vought Doesn’t Care Who Dies, Including You
Russel Vought will reportedly be given veto power over all NIH grants
Scientists Make Jaw-Dropping Realization After Uncovering Perfectly Preserved T. Rex on Wyoming Ranch
Members of Congress push back on plan to create a commission of political appointees to review NIH grants
How Saudi oil scientists ended up working on the world’s most important climate reports
CDC reports a significant increase in rabies activity
Claude discovers a novel enzyme system with CRISPR-like repeats (manuscript here)

Other:

We Didn’t Know Until This Day … Twitter Was the Echo Chamber All Along
New Matrix, Meet the Old Matrix
Centrists Won’t Tell You Where “Moderating” on Trans Rights Ends Up
The A.I. Party House Where Networking Has a Dark Side
Treasury Secretary Bessent Blames OpenAI Management for Hugging Face Breach, Opposes AI Liability Shield
The Other Hormuz: Black Sea Blockade Threatens a Food Supply Shock
Plan for editorial oversight board at CNN and CBS News draws skepticism: ‘Utter garbage’
Queen Elizabeth I Owned Two Thousand Dresses. Only a Scrap of One Remains.
Where’re All The AI Chips?
Welcome to the Wile E. Coyote Moment
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on 2028: ‘Life Doesn’t Wait for You to Be Ready’
Trump administration tells Congress it will admit 17,500 white South African refugees
Meta Tests Muse AI Agent Calls That Are Actually Made By Humans in a Call Center
Big Balls Now Exposed to Serious Criminal Charges in at Least Six States
Stocks had a great day on the surface. But something alarming occurred not seen since 1999
Private Schools Are Bad for Society
People Training OpenAI’s AI Fired for Using AI to Train the AI
The Professor Watchlist is Dead
Extreme overcrowding and abuse plague Florida ICE facilities, whistleblowers say
Trump Grip on GOP Slips as Midterm Election Anxiety Sets In
Effective Altruism’s Bait-and-Switch: From Global Poverty To AI Doomerism
A Bad Tuesday in Maine if Your Name is Susan Collins
DoorDash Agrees To $131 Million Settlement With New York City Over Wage Theft Claims
GOP Candidates Find Creative New Ways to Distance Themselves From Trump
“Bike lane saga”
Shakespeare: Original pronunciation
‘I am the code’: Trump clashed with ballroom architect over safety issues
‘We Screwed Up’: DoorDash to Pay $131.5 Million to Stiffed NYC Delivery Workers
Waymo’s latest expansion strategy: teenagers
Democrats have stumbled onto a new impeachment strategy

How the Fed should measure inflation

Pinning down the underlying rate may be harder than Kevin Warsh thinks

Israel’s war economy is thriving

But conflict is worsening its industrial divide

The battle between India’s stock exchanges is heating up again

Number two is trying harder

Turkey’s investment-fund fiasco

The country could lose its status as an emerging market

Spammers Teach Me Six Ugly Truths About AI Writing

Back in February, I shared this warning from a Silicon Valley insider.

In response, I was accused of “doom-mongering” and various other transgressions against our new overlords. But a few months later, it all started happening. I was now experiencing a spam bombardment of Dresden-ish proportions—precisely the doom I had mongered.


Please support my work—by taking out a premium subscription for just $6 per month.

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In May, spam calls on my phone ranked among my ninety-nine problems. In June, they got worse, much worse. Spam had now graduated to my top ten pet peeves.

A visual depiction of my email box (Source)

By July, I was receiving junk calls every fifteen minutes, more or less. After a few days of that, I decided to take extreme measures.

Read more

Earth fact of the day

An average of 72 percent of respondents said they felt curious, happy or excited about A.I., compared with 41 percent who felt worried, sad or angry.’@nytimes‘s Damien Cave uses @Gallup data to remind us the rest of the world digs AI.

It is 93 percent positive from China.  That is from Nick Gillespie.  Snap out of it you sad sacks, hope you can recognize negative emotional contagion when you see it!  You do not all need to be regional thinkers.  Here are the full rankings.  Here is another visualization of the numbers:

Image

Strange bedfellows, you might say…

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Sakurai’s Object: A Stellar Rebirth

Given how long stars live in comparison to human lifetimes, I always do a double-take at science fiction tales of starships dropping in to study a nova just as it’s about to go off. I suppose we have to assume the starship civilization has found a way to time such matters. There’s a Star Trek: The Next Generation episode that involves rescuing a planetary population from a star that’s about to explode (“A Fury Scorned”), but of all the nova arrivals, I like Samuel Delany’s 1968 novel Nova the best. Here, in order to harvest a rare element dubbed ‘Illyrion,’ the exact moment of the explosion has to be known and exploited through a mind-bending run through the debris.

Today’s paper doesn’t involve a nova, but it does involve a star that is doing things on a very short timeframe indeed. The star is known as Sakurai’s Object (V4334 Sagittarii). Japanese amateur Yukio Sakurai observed the object in 1996, noting how it appeared to be brightening. A 1976 detection of the progenitor star had recorded a magnitude of 21, whereas when Sakurai tagged it, it had reached magnitude 11. The apparent eruption here was first thought to be the result of a nova, but that was discounted for spectral reasons.

Several years later the unusual brightening began to decline. That was evidently the result of loss of mass and subsequent condensation of stellar material, which wound up hiding the star behind a dusty screen. It now shows a spectrum similar to what is known as a Wolf-Rayet star. Sakurai’s Object appears, however, to be in the much less massive Wolf-Rayet class known as a [WR] star. A conventional Wolf-Rayet star is massive, stripped of its hydrogen by huge stellar winds that leave the underlying helium-burning layers exposed. The odd [WR] notation turns out to be needed because low-mass objects like these can mimic a Wolf-Rayet star, so it was necessary to show that this is a different kind of object and a much smaller kind at that, though with Wolf-Rayet features.

There are also sub-categories of [WR] including [WC] that don’t need to occupy us now, although the paper explains what they mean. What’s intriguing about Sakurai’s object is its pace. According to current calculations it’s now roughly 6 times hotter than it was 30 years ago, and is climbing back toward the white dwarf temperatures it had before the eruption that made it observable by Sakurai. Albert Zijlstra (Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, University of Manchester), describes its significance:

“Most stars evolve so slowly that major changes take place over timescales far longer than a human lifetime. As a result, we usually have to piece together snapshots of stellar evolution by comparing different stars at different stages of their lives. Sakurai’s Object offers something far rarer. It is one of the very few stars known to have changed dramatically within just a few decades, giving us the opportunity to watch stellar evolution unfold in real time. With our observations, we can test theories of how stars evolve and gain new insights into one of the shortest and least understood phases in the life of a dying star.”

Image: The rapid brightening of Sakurai’s object allows astronomers to study the final phases of the stellar evolution in only a few decades. The left and right panels show the brightening. The middle panel is an image obtained with the radio telescope ALMA, showing the material ejected after the star re-ignited. The material currently extends over a size similar to our entire solar system. Credit: Stefan Kimeswenger, University of Innsbruck; Peter van Hoof, Royal Observatory Belgium. The observatory also has a short video showing the brightening.

What we apparently have here is a star once similar to the Sun that had finished its nuclear burning and was in the process of turning into a dense white dwarf star about the size of the Earth. But an event known as a ‘very late thermal pulse’ seems to have occurred. This happens when helium deep inside the star reignites, forcing a rapid expansion along with the ejection of stellar materials, so that the star has, at least for the time being, been reinvigorated. Along with another star called V605 Aquilae, Sakurai’s Object is one of only two stars that have been directly observed going through this process.

Let me turn to the paper to home in on the matter of thermal pulses:

Depending on when the pulse occurs, it is classified as an AGB final thermal pulse (AFTP), a late thermal pulse (LTP; post-AGB), or a very late thermal pulse (VLTP; see M. M. Miller Bertolami 2024). In the most extreme case (VLTP), the star is already on the white-dwarf cooling track when the flash causes rapid expansion and cooling, accompanied by substantial mass ejection into the circumstellar environment. The star is thus “born again” and returns close to its former AGB position in the HR diagram. Subsequent evolution involves reheating, and possibly an additional cooling excursion, as the star evolves back towards the white-dwarf domain with a markedly altered surface composition (T. M. Lawlor & J. MacDonald 2003).

No wonder this was a hard object to observe. The ejected gas and dust following the 1996 outburst caused the star to became hidden to direct imaging. Low density gases are coming off the star even as the outflowing atmosphere, moving at e 500 kilometers per second, is optically thick. Much of the spectrum produced is nebular. The team compared data from the VLT with computer models originally developed to study the processes that power the atmospheres and winds of Wolf-Rayet stars. The emission lines studied in this paper are embedded in the stellar wind, as opposed to the ejecta and dust. Much of the credibility of the analysis depends upon separating these factors.

The analysis reveals a stellar temperature at the surface pegged at between 27,000 and 36,000 degrees Kelvin. Scientists will now be able to study the process of the reheating following the eruption that occurred thirty years ago. Early indications are that the process is occurring more slowly than some models had predicted, so that Sakurai’s Object becomes a useful laboratory, like V605 Aquilae, into stellar behavior in this extremely rare class of stars. At some point, Sakurai’s Object will return to its fate as a white dwarf, only now under close observation as we ponder massive changes in a very short order.

Griet Van de Steene (Royal Observatory of Belgium), a co-author of the paper adds:

“Sakurai’s Object evolved much more quickly than pre-existing models for stellar evolution predicted. This led to a new generation of models that we now need to test. Our measurements show that the star is reheating more gradually than some of these new models predicted. That gives us an important way of testing which theories best describe what happens when a dying star briefly springs back to life. As we continue to monitor the star over the coming years, we expect to learn much more about this remarkable phase of stellar evolution.”

The paper is Marcolino et al (2026). The emergence of a [WC] star in Sakurai’s object. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 552(1), Article stag1533. Full text.

Thursday assorted links

1. Shruti on Coltrane.

2. On the drop in Pisa scores.  Quite exaggerated, it turns out.

3. Hope you all reoptimize your views accordingly, on AI agreements with China.

4. Dutch economy is picking up.

5. One professor’s AI-assisted output.  Hey people, solve for the equilibrium…

6. Brisket is now too expensive for this Texas smokehouse.

7. I asked the new Claude to write a 900-word column on refineries, supply, and how to improve the problem.

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Today’s the Day!

Ten years ago, I started asking questions about the census. Little did I know that I entered a Hotel California-esque vortex. Each question led to another question as I started to discover just how infrastructural the census is. Want to understand American democracy? The census is the key. Curious how to ensure data quality? The census has insights. Invested in responsible AI? The census has lessons. And on and on it went.

Well, today is the official publication day of Data Are Made, Not Found: A Story of Politics, Power, and the Civil Servants Who Saved the US Census, which is my attempt to use storytelling to explain the power and beauty of the census. The book is an account of the 2020 census, a love letter to civil servants, and a how-the-sausage-is-made story. Three arguments are woven through the book like red threads:

  • Data are made (not found). How they are made really matters. And making data is more than meets the eye.
  • “Jenga politics” is configuring our government and world, creating precarities that we must learn to see before it’s too late. Everyone loses when the tower falls, even if only one player gets blamed.
  • The key to data’s legitimacy rests in the social fabric that surrounds the data, moreso even than the quality of the data itself. We must invest in social fabrics to ensure that data is robust, trusted, and able to anchor high-stakes decisions.

While census nerds are bound to smile at some parts of the book (and get mad at me for others), this book isn’t just meant for census nerds. It’s meant for anyone who cares about democracy, American politics, and government. And it’s meant for anyone passionate about data, AI, and our sociotechnical world. All too often, we take the systems that undergird our society for granted. We must learn to see the infrastructures of our society to protect them. And democracy’s data is precisely that: data infrastructure.

In the US, we might speak of the importance of the Constitution. The census is at the top: in Article 1, Section 2. Yet many who care about the Constitution or politics know little about how the census works. Our data infrastructure is being politicized and our Census Bureau is being battered. Despite being ordered to oversee a census, Congress has absconded with its responsibilities.

Civil servants work on behalf of the American people. And yet, Democrats have long pushed to outsource government to the private sector, arguing that bureaucrats are too incompetent to do the work. Meanwhile, Republicans have worked to obliterate the administrative state, blaming the so-called “deep state” for spiting them. The public has heard politicians’ messages and often believes that civil servants are malfeasant or stupid, incompetent or useless. Meanwhile, Iceland has a Monument to the Unknown Bureaucrat. (Why don’t we?)

I want the American people to understand and appreciate the hard work that civil servants do on our behalf to uphold American democracy. If you’re reading this, please take a moment to reach out to any civil servant you know and thank them for their service. And if you don’t yet know a civil servant, it’s time to adopt one. They need our collective support so that they can work on our collective behalf, regardless of who is in power.

But brace yourself. The battles around the census are about to get much more intense. After all, the key decisions connected to the 2030 census are going to unfold over the next two years. The Congress that is elected this November will make all of the critical decisions. They might choose to abscond with their responsibility and simply not act, but that too is a choice. Even right now, there’s a Federal Register Notice out there that will radically upend how the 2030 census will operate. Learn more at Hands Off Our Census.

Anyhow, I have a lot more to say. Heck, I edited 350K words down to a reasonable sized book in the hopes that you’d come along for the ride. The book is now here. And it’s in English and French, audiobook and ebook. I want it to be easy for anyone to read it. And if purchasing the book isn’t viable for you, ask your library for a copy. Libraries are awesome!

I’m also going to run around the US this fall (and France in January!) talking about this work. So come talk with me. Ask questions. Help me celebrate the important work of civil servants. And help us all work to ensure that the census is able to continue serving as democracy’s data. Details of the book tour will be kept up-to-date on my website.

Finally… If you’ve gotten this far, thank you. Getting a book into people’s hands isn’t easy, especially now. I could use your help. If you can, help spread the word. Let other people who care about democracy and data know about this project. If you read the book, write a review or tell a friend. Word-of-mouth really matters. Thank you.

Defiance

September 23, 2026

Yesterday, William Turton, Avi Asher-Schapiro, Molly Redden, and Kirsten Berg of ProPublica published a blockbuster story reporting that the anti-corruption group of the Federal Bureau of Investigation was investigating Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) for engaging in a pay-to-play scheme in which defense contractor Navatek made illegal donations to her 2020 campaign and later got multimillion-dollar contracts from the government. Collins is the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

And yet, the story continues, when he returned to the White House in 2025, Trump fired the investigators building the case and largely stopped investigating public corruption.

While the primary witness in the case was Martin Kao, the man who allegedly engaged in the bribery, the ProPublica journalists corroborated much of Kao’s account through legal records, FBI evidence, and interviews with people who worked with Navatek and the FBI.

Collins’s deputy chief of staff Annie Clark said Collins’s office “vigorously” denies allegations of bribery and pay-to-play, but she did admit that “the Collins campaign disgorged the illegal contributions that Martin Kao had made without our knowledge.” Emails suggest that, in fact, her office did know about the deal. After a $150,000 donation, a staff member from her office emailed a lobbyist for Navatek to ask for Kao’s phone number, writing: “Senator Collins would like to call Martin to thank him.”

Although the story’s authors report that Navatek never produced a product the military needed, it did, in fact, receive millions in defense contracts.

The bribery angle of this story is huge. So, too, is that the story suggests that Trump, at least, might perceive that he has something to hold over Collins’s head to keep her behind his actions, even when they have dramatically weakened her power at the head of Appropriations.

The 1873 novel The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today by Charles Dudley Warner and Mark Twain that gave the late nineteenth century its nickname was not about the riches of the industrialists who came to be known as robber barons. It was about the political corruption of the era. In the book, unscrupulous speculators bribed congressmen. “A Congressional appropriation costs money,” a railroad man tells a naive youth who wonders where a $200,000 appropriation has gone. He listed the bribes his project required and noted that the “high moral” lawmakers cost more than the usual ones.

It was an era in which lawmakers lived by the “spoils system,” as in “to the victor go the spoils.” Lawmakers at the time rewarded their business followers with government contracts and put supporters into political office. The businessmen and officials, in turn, would hire workers on the condition they voted for the party the boss supported. “Every good man looks after his friends,” as one politician put it.

The U.S. outlawed the spoils system in 1883 after a disappointed office seeker assassinated President James Garfield, replacing it with the merit-based Civil Service Reform Act, or Pendleton Act. Trump has ripped up those civil service protections, making much of the government staff again political appointees. Curiously, at the United Nations yesterday, Trump used the phrase “to the victor belong the spoils.”

The relationship between the MAGA Republican agenda and the misuse of tax dollars is becoming more and more obvious since ProPublica ran the story last November of how contracts from the Department of Homeland Security appeared to be going to those personally tied to then–Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem and her ally Corey Lewandowski.

In July 2026, Tarini Parti, Josh Dawsey, Michelle Hackman, and Summer Said of the Wall Street Journal confirmed that Lewandowski “effectively controlled billions in spending at Homeland Security.” Lewandowski responded, somewhat halfheartedly, that the story was “just another example of the kind of anonymous-source, politically driven reporting that Americans have seen time and again,” and emphasized that he was “a volunteer in advancing this administration’s agenda.”

Stories of the Trump administration’s misuse of taxpayer money are starting to drop fast and furious.

Yesterday, Liz Essley Whyte of the Wall Street Journal reported that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. funded enhanced security for himself by taking funds from the department’s Office of Minority Health. Whyte notes that the Reagan administration created the Office of Minority Health after a landmark report showed that Black life expectancy in the U.S. was shorter than white Americans’ and that Black babies were more likely than white babies to die.

Christina Jewett and Sheryl Gay Stolberg of the New York Times reported today that, over the past year, Kennedy has also accepted $4 million in book advances and more than $270,000 in gifts from allies connected to the “Make American Healthy Again,” or MAHA, movement interested in changes to government policies. Kennedy’s wife, Cheryl Hines, accepted $210,000 in consulting fees from a MAHA advocacy group.

On a far larger scale is the use of tax dollars to pay authoritarian governments to imprison immigrants from the United States who are not their own citizens.

On Monday, David Nakamura and Adam Taylor of the Washington Post reported that the State Department’s “Office of Remigration” has pledged at least $410 million to facilitate third-country renditions to expel migrants that U.S. courts say cannot be returned to their home countries for fear they will be harmed or killed. So the U.S. has sent more than 25,000 people to at least 28 third countries, including Eswatini, Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, and Sierra Leone, for a fee. That money includes $81 million in direct payments to 13 foreign governments, as well as funding for agencies that will then contribute to those countries.

Those countries either imprison the migrants or send them back to their home countries, a loophole that enables the administration to get around the prohibition on the U.S. sending them there. Last Friday, a federal appeals court found that this policy is unlawful. The administration will appeal to the Supreme Court.

White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller has ordered the deals, and Christian Ehrhardt, a State Department official, has secured them.

Nakamura and Taylor explain that the Office of Remigration—the word “remigration” is popular with white nationalists who seek to expel racial minorities and immigrants through ethnic cleansing—reverses the previous U.S. emphasis on resettling refugees and instead focuses on expelling them, including into places where there is strong evidence they will be tortured. The administration is locking in these deals as quickly as possible, the journalists report, exercising “minimal oversight over how the money is spent and how the migrants are treated, even though some of the third countries are ruled by authoritarian regimes.”

A former State Department official who left the department over the policy told Nakamura and Taylor that the administration wanted “fast money, with no strings attached. The whole point was to circumvent [congressional] notification that money was being sent to a government known to be corrupt.” The plan appears to be to create such terror in migrant communities that people here self-deport, and others are afraid to come.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council notes that “Congress should demand answers from those responsible for diverting taxpayer funding intended to protect people from persecution to some of the world’s worst authoritarians, for purposes which clearly violate human rights.”

On Sunday an agent from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) shot Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez, a Venezuelan food delivery driver, in the back in Austin, Texas. With a bullet still lodged in his body, he was discharged from a hospital to ICE custody, where he spent the night in pain on a cold floor. Nick Miroff of The Atlantic reported yesterday that the officer was a recent hire who was not wearing a body camera, despite the promise of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin that all ICE agents would wear cameras. News outlets reported that the officer had been issued one.

The Department of Homeland Security set out to add 10,000 new agents last year after Congress provided billions of dollars to double the ICE workforce. ICE ramped up its hiring by offering $50,000 signing bonuses and cutting normal vetting procedures, sometimes not even checking fingerprints or identities or conducting a job interview. David Brouillette, the ICE officer with a volatile history who killed Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Biddeford, Maine, in July, was also a recent hire. On September 15, Alex Horton, Joyce Sohyun Lee, Maria Sacchetti, and Ted Hesson of the Washington Post reported that ICE has been quietly firing some of those hastily hired.

ICE told the Washington Post reporters: “ICE is hiring the best of the best to go after the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens including drug traffickers, murderers, and pedophiles. When individuals fall short of that standard—personnel decisions are made. This is standard practice in almost every American workplace.”

Officials told Miroff that the agents who stopped Garcés Pérez used a commercial database and federal immigration file that identified the man’s plates as belonging to someone with an outstanding deportation order; his lawyer said he had a valid work permit and is an asylum seeker, and that the deportation order came because notice of his immigration court hearing was sent to the wrong address. After a public outcry, officials took Garcés Pérez back to the hospital on Monday.

Ryan Quinn of Inside Higher Ed reported Monday that the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality are running far behind where they should be in terms of funding for the fiscal year, which ends on September 30.

Trump fired the board of the National Science Foundation (NSF) in April, and the foundation is now effectively being run by the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), a former NSF board member told Quinn. The director of OMB is Russell Vought, a key author of Project 2025. “And OMB is directing the agency to direct its grant-making dollars in ways that are very different from federal law as passed by Congress in its budget,” the former board member said.

Quinn noted that Nature attributed the funding shortfall mainly “to the agency keeping more than $1 billion in an account, much of which is for the White House’s Grand Research Challenges project, which is meant to support specific fields, including artificial intelligence.” The Trump family and the president’s allies are heavily invested in the AI sector.

And then there are Trump’s vanity projects. Even before Trump announced that the American taxpayer wouldn’t pay a dime for the White House ballroom project, the administration had already signed contracts that put the American taxpayer on the hook for more than $300 million for it.

Today Sarah Blaskey and Jonathan O’Connell of the Washington Post reported that James McCrery II, the first architect on Trump’s ballroom, resigned when Trump insisted on a design that did not meet fire codes. Normally, White House construction would be managed by federal agencies required by law to comply with building safety codes, but White House officials have routed the ballroom through the tiny Executive Residence office that is exempt from rules because it is not a federal agency.

McCrery warned that Trump’s design did not have enough emergency exits or measures to contain a fire, which could spread quickly from the kitchen below the ballroom to the event space above it, and pointed out that the design was not up to code.

Trump waved off his concerns. “I am the code,” he said.

Notes:

https://www.propublica.org/article/fbi-susan-collins-navatek-campaign-donations-investigation

https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-09-22/propublica-reporter-shares-key-takeaways-from-investigative-story-involving-susan-collins

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/21/ice-shooting-austin-texas-venezuelan-man

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/corey-lewandowski-influence-dhs-43d3fe03

https://www.propublica.org/article/kristi-noem-dhs-ad-campaign-strategy-group

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/rfk-jr-hhs-security-cost-minority-health-office-f1c7b62a

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2026/09/18/appeals-court-says-trump-administrations-third-country-deportation-policy-is-unlawful/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2026/09/21/how-trump-turned-refugee-bureau-into-410-million-deportation-operation/

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/09/austin-ice-shooting-body-camera/688738/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2026/09/15/ice-is-quietly-firing-new-hires-one-recruit-it-was-devastating/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2026/07/18/ice-officers-troubled-past-renews-vetting-questions-after-maine-shooting/

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/government/science-research-policy/2026/09/21/nsf-over-billion-behind-grants-ies-says-will

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/06/16/records-reveal-600m-estimate-trumps-ballroom-project-with-half-taxpayers/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/09/23/i-am-code-trump-clashed-with-ballroom-architect-over-safety-issues/

https://apnews.com/article/austin-texas-ice-shooting-driver-wilber-perez-ebdb9d481d28e322f62c15f1076f3c18

https://history.hanover.edu/courses/excerpts/336plunkitt.html

https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2026/06/trump-federal-employees-schedule-f/413945/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/us/politics/rfk-jr-book-advances-maha.html?smid=bs-share

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/23/texas-austin-shooting-ice-officer-no-body-cam-reports/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/22/us/politics/un-trump-speech-iran-venezuela-greenland.html

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Moral Economics in Korean

Here's the first commercial translation I've seen of my book Moral Economics, which appeared in English in May 2026.

 I suspect that, now that A.I. can offer substantial assistance, some translations will appear more rapidly than in the past. 

The title in Korean is 금지된 거래의 경제학도덕과 시장은 공존할 수 있는가, The Economics of Forbidden Transactions: Can Morality and Markets Coexist? (You can buy it here.)

 

New release

Here's a book review in the Seoul Economic Daily.

Here's another. Both are in English.

CA 91326: A Public Choice Mystery Investigation

Carl Danner writes to me with a political economy mystery. On Sept 9, 2026, The California Public Utilities Commission announced a set of clean energy grants but only “for eligible organizations headquartered in ZIP Code 91326.”

I decided to investigate with ChatGPT. The first thing we discovered is that:

The ZIP-code restriction is about the Aliso Canyon gas leak. More specifically, this is money ultimately intended to benefit residents of Porter Ranch and nearby communities affected by the 2015–16 Aliso Canyon disaster, not a generic clean-energy grant that happens to be located there.

The Aliso Canyon gas leak was a big deal with thousands of families evacuated for months so it’s not surprising that money is allocated to that problem but note that the grants are not for organization serving the people or region affected by the gas leak (which is much larger than zip 91326) but for an organization headquartered in ZIP Code 91326. I smelled a payoff. So I pushed ChatGPT to investigate:

It may be [a payoff], but the evidence supports a narrower claim: the Round 3 rules look unusually tailored to make Save Porter Ranch a likely recipient.

The strongest facts are:

  • The legislature appropriated $2 million from the Aliso Canyon Recovery Account for CBO outreach in Los Angeles County, prioritizing a broad “Aliso Canyon Disaster Area” containing 11 communities—not Porter Ranch alone.
  • CPUC’s first round distributed roughly $1.3 million through a normal competitive process across multiple organizations.
  • For Round 3, CPUC suddenly restricts eligibility to organizations headquartered in the single ZIP code 91326, with a maximum award of $75,000 and exclusion of previous recipients.
  • Save Porter Ranch is headquartered at 19360 Rinaldi Street, Porter Ranch, CA 91326 and has been an active participant in CPUC proceedings concerning Aliso Canyon for years.

That is suggestive because the legislative authorization itself does not appear to require this hyper-local 91326 restriction. It defines the relevant disaster area much more broadly. CPUC therefore seems to have exercised administrative discretion to create a tiny eligibility pool.

I would distinguish three possibilities:

  1. Benign geographic set-aside: CPUC noticed that none of the first-round money had gone to an organization actually based in Porter Ranch and reserved the final $75,000 for a local group.
  2. De facto earmark: CPUC knew that Save Porter Ranch was one of very few qualifying CBOs in 91326 and wrote the eligibility rule sufficiently narrowly that it was highly likely to win.
  3. Quid pro quo/payoff: the money was deliberately directed to Save Porter Ranch in exchange for support, silence, settlement behavior, etc.

We have substantial circumstantial evidence for #2, but I have seen no evidence yet for #3. Calling it a “payoff” requires some evidence about why CPUC created the ZIP restriction or about communications with Save Porter Ranch.

I wasn’t satisfied so I pushed the investigation deeper and ChatGPT investigated the legislative history. It found that

The 91326 restriction did not originate with CPUC staff. The Legislature itself inserted it into the 2026 budget cleanup bill, and it is unusually specific….The evidence [for a payoff] is considerably stronger than I thought.

…If I were writing this up now, the sharp factual formulation would be: “In an August 2026 budget bill, the California Legislature quietly directed the CPUC to hold an otherwise-unplanned third grant round restricted to nonprofits headquartered in a single Porter Ranch ZIP code. One conspicuous beneficiary of that restriction is Save Porter Ranch, the local Aliso Canyon advocacy organization, which had previously helped lobby state officials over how Aliso Canyon penalty funds should be spent.”

I then asked ChatGPT to “look for overlap in Save Porter Ranch and CA legislatures, e.g. spouses, children, business partners.” It replied:

The strongest link is Richard Mathews. Save Porter Ranch’s IRS filings list Mathews as a director alongside Matt Pakucko and Kyoko Hibino. Mathews is also the longtime president of the North Valley Democratic Club. He previously served as a regional vice chair of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party and on the California Democratic Party executive board and its Legislation Committee.

That puts a Save Porter Ranch director directly inside the local/state Democratic Party apparatus, not merely in occasional contact with elected officials.

…the Mathews connection is stronger than I expected. This isn’t just an advocacy organization obtaining support from politicians. One of Save Porter Ranch’s three disclosed directors was simultaneously a fairly senior Democratic Party insider whose political club includes and supports legislators involved in the relevant legislative machinery.

…The missing piece remains the most important one: who requested the sentence “headquartered within ZIP Code 91326”?

I enjoyed the fact that ChatGPT seems excited by the new discoveries! Digging deeper:

That gives us a much tighter network than we had initially:

Save Porter Ranch
→ director Richard Mathews
→ president, North Valley Democratic Club
→ Schiavo and Gabriel are identified as club members / repeatedly endorsed by it
→ Schiavo sits on Budget + Utilities & Energy and represents the affected area
→ Gabriel chairs Assembly Budget
→ August 28 Assembly budget amendments insert a bespoke ZIP-code restriction
→ restriction makes Save Porter Ranch an unusually obvious potential recipient.

There is another revealing feature. The amendment was handled as part of a budget-bill junior rather than through ordinary policy legislation. The public legislative history is extraordinarily thin: amendment August 28, withdrawn from committee August 30, passed August 31. Neither Gabriel’s Assembly presentation nor Laird’s Senate presentation told legislators that the “third round” was actually limited to one ZIP code. Gabriel merely said CPUC must offer “a third round of unspent funds”; Laird similarly described a third round “as specified.” The Assembly passed it 72–0.

That doesn’t demonstrate corruption, but it is exactly how a highly localized legislative earmark can pass with effectively zero scrutiny.

Alas, “the remaining decisive evidence probably isn’t indexed on the web.” Still, you get the idea.

Of course, this is small potatoes by the standards of California political/regulatory friends and families but it’s a nice case study in political economy. How do we want government to work? Is this ethical? What if the sums were much larger? What if the funds went to an equally well-connected group but for a less justifiable cause?   

It’s always surprised me that most public choice is not done in this micro-history way. My early paper on the Separation of Commercial and Investment Banking: The Morgans vs. The Rockefellers (which was inspired by Burch’s magnificent Elites in American History which hardly any public choice scholars know) is one of the few examples. I could have done many more papers along those lines but archival history didn’t appeal to me although I did learn a lot digging through Carter Glass’s papers at UVA. I suppose economists like models and consider this sort of thing journalism or history at best.

If you want more details on CA 91326 you can read my whole conversation with ChatGPT.

The post CA 91326: A Public Choice Mystery Investigation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Britain’s last great airship

Photo of an airship labelled R101 flying above a grassy field with cows and a tall structure in the background.

The remarkable engineering and tragic demise of the vessel that would end Britain’s dream to dominate the skies

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Where a land ethic blooms

A lush green landscape with hills and distant cattle under a cloudy sky, suggesting a tranquil rural setting.

Caring for this planet entails decisions that are intimate, about our farms, our homes, our human and our wild neighbours

- by Craig Maier

Read on Aeon

*Fear of Data*

The author is Omri Ben-Shahar, and the subtitle is How Privacy Panic Led Tech Regulation Astray — and How to Fix It.  I would describe this book as bracing, and full of substantive engagement.  Basically the author wishes to give privacy considerations less weight in social decisions.  Excerpt:

What is the concrete evidence for the benefits of facial recognition technology in investigation of  human-trafficking crimes?  I would love to have found global estimates of the magnitude — of the trafficking victims rescued through the most advanced facial recognition methods — but all I have is a collage of reports [reports are then described].

One chapter is entitled “The Futility of Personal Rights.”  Agree or not, this book is full of actual arguments, so I approve.

The post *Fear of Data* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Ed Zitron’s AI Prediction Track Record

Dan Luu serves up some copiously documented claim chowder:

After this point, most further predictions that I saw were either non-falsifiable or resolve in the future. Note that I didn’t attempt to catalogue statements that are nonsensical or were simply factually incorrect statements at the time, such as his December 2024 claim that “Generative AI’s products have effectively been trapped in amber for over a year.” January 2026 claim that “[models are] basically the same as they were a year ago. They have the same efficacy”. Zitron has not only made forward-looking statements that AI capabilities will not improve, he’s also consistently made backwards-looking statements that capabilities have not improved which, while obviously false at the time, seem to play well to his base (along with his other false statements). If you connect all his statements together, it’s implied that AI had the same capabilities in January 2026 as they did in December 2023 (and if you connect later statements, it’s actually implied that capabilities in August 2026 are the same as in December 2023, though to be fair to Zitron he frequently contradicts himself and has also admitted to limited improvement in mid 2026).

 ★ 

My economics-rich Conversation with Gita Gopinath

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the episode summary:

Gita Gopinath has spent the last several years inside the room where the world’s monetary plumbing gets fixed — or doesn’t. As first deputy managing director of the IMF and, before that, the Fund’s chief economist, she worked on sovereign debt restructuring, followed Argentina’s disinflation up close, and built her academic reputation on ideas like dollar dominance and the dominant currency paradigm. Now back at Harvard launching a new Global Economics Lab, her conversation with Tyler ranges from why exchange rates don’t adjust the way models predict, to what stablecoins really cost, to whether AI’s growth dividend will show up on schedule.

Tyler and Gita discuss why trade balances are only weakly related to real exchange rates, before turning to Argentina, Milei’s fiscal discipline, the peso, and dollarization. Then they discuss whether economists got the euro wrong; whether trade imbalances with China are really the problem; stablecoins, CBDCs, and the Treasury market; and whether AI will ease the debt burden, cause stagflation, or transform economics itself. Finally, they turn to her family’s Kerala roots: why the state keeps electing communists, the relationship between matriarchy and social indicators, single-sex education, and what she’s building next.

Excerpt:

COWEN: Now, Scott Sumner argues we shouldn’t be worried about trade imbalances at all. We don’t worry about them across American states. A lot of the EU has a pretty big current account surplus. Not many people are worried about that. Yet when it comes to China, the talk is all about trade imbalances. Scott argues that’s more of a political project than an actual economic argument. Do you agree with Scott or not?

GOPINATH: I would agree with Scott along the following lines, which is that the trade imbalance in and of itself is not something that we should be focused on. I think what we care about is welfare, and welfare involves jobs and consumption, what’s inflation, purchasing power, and so on. People do not wake up in the morning saying, “Okay, my current account deficit is too big, or my current account surplus is too big.” If all of your policies that were delivering good outcomes for your country were to bring along a deficit or a surplus, that’s perfectly fine. There are lots of good reasons to be running deficits and surpluses we know. There’s nothing that tells you that you shouldn’t.

The problem arises when you have policies that countries have in place that are inconsistent with any kind of a balanced growth model, and they manifest themselves in that trade deficits and surpluses. This is what I’m saying as an economist.

Now, of course, from a politician’s perspective, there are other arguments for why they would point to it. What we have seen historically over and over again is that whenever you had these increases in these deficits and surpluses, you’ve had trade wars or calls for protectionism. That’s what happened during Reagan’s time, 1980s. That’s what led to the Plaza Accord and then all the adjustments that followed after that.

Then you also do worry about the possibility of crises. The Great Financial Crisis was preceded by growing imbalances. There was a sense in which all this big savings glut. All this money flushing around. All these large surpluses and deficits were part of the problem. Now I would say where we are now in this third wave of concern about imbalances.

To be clear, it’s not the imbalance itself. As an economist, I would say that it’s not the imbalance in itself. You don’t wake up and say, “This is what I’m trying to prevent. I’m trying to prevent us from having a deficit. I want us to have balanced trade.” I think that’s bad economics.

COWEN: Say China is channeling what would have been wage income into investment, and that’s plausibly the case. Now, it may be politically unstable in the sense that we Americans object to it, but that’s not an argument per se, right? We have a choice as to whether or not we should object to it. It doesn’t seem that rigorous to say, well, this will cause another financial crisis like 2008. There’s just not real evidence for that. Scott Sumner would say, “Let’s just be happy we have cheaper goods. We send them paper. We get back stuff and go our merry way.” Why is that wrong?

GOPINATH: A few things. Firstly, I could go into these differences between trade deficits and surpluses versus what I would call sectoral imbalances, or the fact that China’s running a big manufacturing surplus, which is different from a trade surplus itself, or that it has big EV production. What we do recognize, again, is that we do a pretty bad job in moving or helping workers that have lost their jobs in certain sectors.

COWEN: We’re at full employment now or very close to it.

GOPINATH: Again, we’re at full employment right now, but we’ve had this period of time when we had communities that were deeply affected by—not just trade—automation was a big part of it too. We don’t do a great job in terms of getting people back into jobs, and that can affect, depending upon your ideal welfare function for the country, if you care a lot about those people, then obviously in that case, that’s something that should matter in your policy decisions.

In the case of China, I would say firstly that, in both the case of the US and China, we’re very far from the world where countries are doing good policies, and this is all about comparative advantage, and this is all about this would be the outcome we would have in a world where every country was doing the right policy. We’re very far from that.

China’s surpluses are a reflection of things going wrong in China. It’s not a reflection of strength in China. It’s a reflection of weak consumption. It’s a reflection of misallocated resources going into different sectors. They did that with their property markets. Now they have a huge property market problem that they haven’t been able to fix in five years. They have this now with other markets, including EVs and the other sectors. They have the problem with inflation being too low.

They’re trying to do so called anti-involution policies, bringing companies together and telling them, “You’ve got to keep prices higher than what you’re doing right now.” This is not the world where they’re playing good policies, and this is all comparative advantage, and this is the outcome that we see. I wouldn’t push the argument that this is, “Oh, we should be just happier with cheaper goods from China.”

Economics throughout…

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Cloudy Cloak Over the Northwest

Low-lying clouds cover western Washington and Oregon between the Pacific coast and the foothills of the Cascade Range. Parts of the Olympic Mountains and Oregon Coast Range are visible above the clouds.
September 19, 2026
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

Cool, marine air rolling off the Pacific Ocean led to a picturesque layer of morning clouds over western Washington and Oregon in mid-September 2026. Low-lying stratus clouds and fog extended as far inland as the western foothills of the Cascade Range. Near the coast, taller portions of the Olympic Mountains in Washington and the Oregon Coast Range appeared island-like, protruding above the cloud layer.

The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite shows the extent of the Pacific Northwest’s cloudy cloak on September 19, 2026, at about 10:45 a.m. Pacific Time (17:45 Universal Time). Abundant clouds also appear offshore over the Pacific, while smoke from wildland fires fills valleys in the North Cascades.

For several nights in a row, marine air flowed onshore, according to the National Weather Service, bringing with it low-level clouds known as marine stratus. These clouds form when moist air near the surface, trapped beneath a warmer air layer in a temperature inversion, cools enough for its water vapor to condense. The surge of cool, moist conditions was particularly strong early on September 19, producing cloudy conditions all the way up to the Cascade foothills. Some areas witnessed foggy conditions, where clouds extended down to the ground.

That same day, when NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the area at about 4:15 p.m. Pacific Time (23:15 Universal Time), skies had cleared over much of the area. However, some marine clouds still clung to the Oregon coast, where temperatures stayed cooler than inland locations.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

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Changes to App Tracking Transparency in the E.U.

Apple Developer:

As part of agreements with select European competition authorities, Apple is introducing changes to its App Tracking Transparency framework in the European Union. Beginning with iOS 27.2 and iPadOS 27.2, developers will have the option to use an alternative version of the App Tracking Transparency system prompt in the EU. The requirements for when you must seek permission to track users will remain the same. Due to legal requirements, only the alternative version of the system prompt is available for apps distributed in Germany, France, Italy, Poland, and Romania.

In addition, for users in the European Union, you can reprompt [sic] a user via the App Tracking Transparency system prompt one year after the user’s previous choice in your app’s App Tracking Transparency system prompt, regardless of whether that choice was to accept or reject. A user cannot be re-prompted if they have disabled “Allow Apps to Request to Track” (renamed to “Allow Apps to Request to Link Your Activity Across Companies” in the EU) in their device’s Settings.

As Benjamin Mayo notes, “Allow Apps to Request to Link Your Activity Across Companies” is catchy.

The gist of this is that there are three constituent groups: Apple, users, and third-party developers. I’ve long argued that Apple prioritizes those groups in that order. What DMA/EU proponents have fooled themselves into believing is that the European Commission works to move users into, or at least closer to, the top spot. The truth is that they (and national regulatory authorities in Europe) work to move third-party developers and publishers into a more privileged position, at the expense of users’ privacy and experience. Users don’t want to be tracked without permission. Apple doesn’t want users to be tracked without their permission. But an awful lot of third-party developers and publishers want to track users without their permission or knowledge.

Just getting the term changed from “tracking” (one word, easily understood) to “linking your activity across companies” (five words, obfuscated) tells you all you need to know.

See also: Nick Heer has a different take at Pixel Envy.

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Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 252341
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located
about 150 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend
or early next week. The system is forecast to move generally
northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Beven
NNNN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABNT20 KNHC 252341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gonzalo, located just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
on Tropical Storm Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the
Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Evans/Beven


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252341
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located
about 150 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (Invest 90E):
An area of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
becoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend
or early next week. The system is forecast to move generally
northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Beven


Globular star cluster Globular star cluster


Significant Coastal Impacts to the Eastern Seaboard; Hurricane Nolo to Impact Hawaii