Your future job will be to keep AI on task

“Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions, and can never pretend to any other office than to serve and obey them.” — David Hume

If you’re of a certain generation,1 you’ve probably seen the movie Office Space. If you haven’t, I strongly recommend it, both because it’s funny as heck, and because it’s a perfect encapsulation of a certain time and place in the world. The movie hearkens back to the big technology companies of the 1990s, when — according to the mythology, at least — nerdy engineers did all the real work while know-nothing middle-management types took all the credit. (You’ll also recognize this as the culture that gave rise to Dilbert.) The iconic character representing the backwardness and inefficiency of the 1990s corporation was Bill Lumbergh, the suspender-clad boss whose main function was to pester engineers to fill out useless paperwork.

A lot of nerdy types watched Office Space and assumed — or at least hoped — that in the end, the smart engineer types would take over corporate America from the plodding Lumberghs. And in fact, something like this happened in the 2010s — as Big Tech eclipsed much of the old economy, engineers became extremely highly paid, and began to fill the ranks of middle and upper management. It was the Revenge of the Nerds, the age of human capital, the triumph of humans who actually knew how to do difficult technical things.

But just as with the highly paid artisans of early 18th century Britain, the scarcity of human capital spurred a wave of automation. This year, AI found its killer app — Claude Code and other agentic coding tools that allow AI to do much (though not all) of the hard mental work that the much-put-upon engineers in Office Space were doing by hand. Although AI has not yet replaced many professions, the rapid progress has lots of people wondering what exactly humans will be useful for in 10 or 20 years. If AI does replace coders and mathematicians, what chance do any of the rest of us have?

Although some people in the AI industry still think that humans will be rendered economically irrelevant, that answer is increasingly unsatisfying. Realizing that a popular backlash against their industry is underway, many AI leaders and AI boosters are actively looking for the answer to the question of “What will humans be useful for?”. So far, the most popular answer, advanced by folks like Alex Imas, is that humans will be useful simply because they’re human:

Ghosts of Electricity
What will be scarce?
Starbucks is a huge company (market cap of $112 billion) that sells one of the most standardized products in the modern economy. Making a cup of coffee or even one of the fancy specialty drinks is very easy to mechanize and reproduce. If the entire economy is soon to be automated, with labor being replaced with increasingly more sophisticated capital, S…
Read more

The idea here is that it will become a sign of prestige and social status — which are always in short supply — to have humans do something for you instead of AI. No matter what else machines can do, they can never replace the knowledge that it’s a real human being making your sandwich.

I kind of have my doubts about this thesis — I’ve seen a lot of people pay extra to have a Waymo drive them instead of an Uber, so they didn’t have to sit with a human driver in the car. But maybe Imas is right; we’ll have to see.

But I have a slightly different answer to the question of “What will humans do?”. I think humans will continue to be required for something beyond simply being their beautiful human selves. I think there will be an increasing demand for human labor in the all-important job of maintaining AI alignment.

“Alignment” can mean many things in the AI community, but one basic definition is “ensuring that AI’s goals are the same as humans’ goals”. This is something that AI labs try to do before releasing their products to the world. But as AI becomes more and more agentic — as we turn over more complex and longer-lasting tasks to intelligent machines — it’s going to be harder and harder to keep them aligned with what humans actually want. And if there’s one thing humans will always have a comparative advantage at, it’s knowing what we want.2

In other words, it’s the lumbering Lumbergh, rather than the technically competent engineers, who I believe represents the ultimate future of human labor. He may seem boring and pointless, but by forcing engineers to file their TPS reports and do other seemingly useless tasks, Lumbergh is — however approximately and inefficiently — keeping the engineers’ goals aligned with those of the company they work for.

In the far future — maybe 10 or 20 years from now — this will mean that humans’ main productive function is to make sure that increasingly autonomous AIs stay on task instead of “reward-hacking”, rewriting their own utility functions, going rogue, or otherwise slacking off. Over the next few years, though, I expect human work to gently shade from technical work into alignment work, as we spend our hours verifying the output that AI delivers us.

Slopocalypse Now: why “verification” and “alignment” are the same thing

Generative AI has dramatically decreased the cost of many kinds of output. With the touch of a button, you can write an essay, turn a data set into an academic paper, write a report for your boss, and so on.

Everyone is doing this, and the result is that our society is currently being overwhelmed by a wave of AI output of questionable quality — in other words, what has come to be known as “slop”.

Slop is rapidly taking over every domain of human output. Over one-third of new websites are now estimated to be AI-generated, and over half of internet traffic is now believed to be AI. AI-generated court filings and news articles are on the rise. Even respected public figures are now posting obviously AI-generated content as their own. AI-generated political influencers are becoming a standard tool for electoral campaigns.

Read more

Wednesday assorted links

1. As meat prices rise, the economics of Texas barbecue.

2. Economic historian Eric Jones has passed away.

3. Claims about the Pope and Claude.  If true, further evidence for my Straussian hypothesis.

4. Koyama reviews Tyler Goodspeed on business cycles.

5. “Chinese battery manufacturer Calb has broken ground on a €2 Billion gigafactory in southern Portugal which is expected to represent more than 4% of the country’s GDP when in full swing.” Link here.

6. Web site on Italian decline.

7. Traveling around Syria.

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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One Good Outcome of Gerrymandering: No More Rep. Andy Harris

While in principle I don’t like gerrymandering, when fascists are willing to use extreme gerrymandering to hold power, we’re left with no alternative (if the worst we have to do to stop the fascists is gerrymander temporarily, we will have been very fortunate). And usually, when I think about the actual consequences of gerrymandering, it’s something along the lines of an anonymous fascist or fascist collaborator will lose their seat.

But not in Maryland. In Maryland, the Republican who would lose his seat is Republican Rep. Andy Harris. Harris hates D.C. residents, and the feeling is mutual. In Harris’ case, I will rejoice when he is no longer able to harass the residents of the mainland colony known as the District of Columbia.

Also, never underestimate the utility of spite for defeating fascists.

Survey of economists, concerning Living-Donor Kidney Transplants

Romesh Vaitilingam writes to draw my attention to the recent survey of economists, concerning Living-Donor Kidney Transplants, conducted by the Clark Center for Global Markets at Chicago Booth.

He says 

" I’m writing now as I thought you might be interested in the results of this survey, which was inspired by reading your recent Wash Post column."*

Below are the three questions they asked, and the results to each one. At the survey link above you can find the responses of the individual economists surveyed.

 

 

 Only one economist appeared to be skeptical about kidney exchange, and I was surprised at who it was (respondents may answer these questions very quickly...).

 

The next question concerns the End Kidney Deaths Act, which was introduced to the respondents at these links:

"There is draft legislation in Congress to increase the supply of human kidneys by encouraging donations to strangers: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2687

"It is summarized here: https://www.hawaiibusiness.com/bipartisan-bill-aims-to-prevent-kidney-deaths-by-compensating-donors/ "

 

 

 The End Kidney Deaths Act gets a good deal of support (above) while an unspecified decentralized market gets considerably less support, below.

 

 ###########

*Earlier posts

Friday, May 8, 2026 It’s time to carefully but urgently rethink payments to kidney donors. My op-ed in the Washington Post

 

Politics Chat, May 26, 2026

Trump Under Pressure

Microsoft Copilot Cowork Exfiltrates Files

Microsoft Copilot Cowork Exfiltrates Files

The biggest challenge in designing agentic systems continues to be preventing them from enabling attackers to exfiltrate data.

In this case Microsoft Copilot Cowork (yes, that's a real product name) was allowing agents to send emails to the user's own inbox without approval... but those messages were then displayed in a way that could leak data to an attacker via rendered images:

Because these messages can contain external images that trigger network requests to external websites, data can be exfiltrated when a user opens a compromised message sent by the agent.

Since OneDrive can create pre-authenticated download links, a successful prompt injection could cause those links to be leaked, allowing files to be downloaded by the attacker.

Via Hacker News

Tags: microsoft, security, ai, prompt-injection, generative-ai, llms, exfiltration-attacks, lethal-trifecta

Quoting Paul Graham

A lot of the emails I get from founders are now written in a hard-hitting journalistic style. I know they're written by AI, because no founder ever wrote this way before. And once you realize something is written by AI, it's hard not to ignore it.

I have never knowingly finished reading an email signed by a human but written by AI. It feels like being lied to, and who would stand for that?

[...] It makes me think less of the author. It means they can't write well unaided (or feel they can't), and that they're trying to trick me.

It's not impressive to use AI to write stuff for you; any teenager can do that.

Paul Graham

Tags: writing, ai-misuse, paul-graham, generative-ai, ai, llms

California Brown Pelican, Snowy Egret, California Sea Lion, Harbor Seal

California Brown Pelican

California Brown Pelican

Snowy Egret

California Sea Lion

Harbor Seal

California Brown Pelican, Snowy Egret, California Sea Lion, Harbor Seal, in San Mateo County, CA, US

We took our new folding kayak out in the harbor and saw sea lions and harbor seals chilling on the docks.

May 26, 2026

Yesterday, federal agents from Immigration and Customs Enforcement pepper-sprayed Senator Andy Kim (D-NJ) along with demonstrators outside Delaney Hall, a 1,000-bed detention center in Newark, New Jersey.

In February 2025 the administration signed a 15-year, $1 billion contract with the GEO Group, which operates private prisons, to expand the Delaney Hall facility dramatically as an ICE prison. New Jersey officials have argued in federal court that GEO Group does not have the required permits to operate the expanded facility, yet the facility opened about a year ago.

In February, twenty-five detainees at Delaney Hall signed a letter distributed by the national advocacy group for undocumented immigrants, Cosecha, as “Our Cry: A Letter from Inside Delaney Hall.” In the letter, they apologized “for the way we entered the United States,” explaining that “we were experiencing safety circumstances that endangered our lives and the lives of some members of our family.” They emphasized that they had surrendered to border authorities and continued to work within the system, attending check-ins, getting work permits, and paying taxes, before being seized by ICE agents.

They explained that they have not been afforded the legal hearings guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution and are being pressured to self-deport under threats of being sent not back to their country of origin, but rather to third countries like Uganda. They noted that ICE agents have arrested children, the elderly, and people with medical issues and that the facility is overcrowded.

In a second letter, Delaney Hall detainees expanded their picture of their circumstances, noting that some of them have lived in the country for more than a decade, have citizen children, and were complying with legal requirements. They noted that detainees with HIV, cancer, diabetes, and heart conditions are not receiving proper medical attention.

In the second letter, signed by nearly 300 people, the detainees pleaded with “Senators, Congress members, foundations, and organizations that collaborate with immigrants” for help. In big letters at the bottom of the document they wrote: “S.O.S.,” the international distress call.

As Sophie Nieto-Muñoz of the New Jersey Monitor reported, about 300 detainees at Delaney Hall began a work and hunger strike on Friday over the conditions and treatment there. From inside, they called their family members outside, who shared their stories of worm-infested food, crowded conditions, and pressure to self-deport until guards cut their access to phones and tablets. Their goal, they said, was the immediate release of young detainees, the elderly, and those who are medically vulnerable, and to bring attention to the fact that immigration judges are ignoring their cases.

On Saturday, Kim and Representative Rob Menendez Jr. visited the facility.

Kim posted on social media that the detainees had accurately represented conditions there. He said he found an eighteen-year-old high school student crying and saying she just wanted to graduate; a pregnant woman without full OBGYN care; a woman who had suffered a miscarriage and had no medical care; a mother who was largely separated from her four-month-old baby, the husband of an American citizen wife and child; spoiled food; a court docket showing one judge with 74 cases to handle in one day, allowing the judge about five minutes per case; a man from South America being threatened with deportation to Congo, where there is an active Ebola outbreak; and so on.

Kim concluded: “Spending tens of billions of dollars from American families to perpetrate cruelty against people who aren’t violent criminals or felons is a waste of money and wrong…. Our government should focus on helping Americans afford their lives, not lock people up in for-profit detention centers where corporations like GeoGroup and CoreCivic make billions. No profiting off of human misery.”

On Sunday evening, dozens of protesters blocked the entrances to Delaney Hall after it appeared that guards were trying to move Martin Soto, one of those who announced the hunger strike. His wife, Gabriela Soto, has been organizing protesters on the outside. “The people inside Delaney Hall are fathers and mothers, sons and daughters, and members of our community,” she told Ryan Mancini of The Hill. “In New Jersey, we believe in the rule of law and that everyone deserves to be treated with basic dignity. We have a duty to safeguard the rights, health, and well-being of everyone within our borders.”

On Monday, New Jersey governor Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, was denied entry to the facility. She said that refusal raised “serious questions about what they are trying to hide from public view.” A spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said that Sherrill’s visit was “nothing more than a political stunt on Memorial Day when visitation is currently suspended due to riots outside in the facility.”

DHS also insisted that Democratic lawmakers were “spreading smears” about ICE and Delaney Hall. It denied that there was a hunger strike underway, and claimed that “ICE has higher detention standards than most U.S. prisons that hold actual U.S. citizens,” although nearly 50 ICE detainees have died. It claimed Democratic concerns were “a political stunt” and insisted those it is detaining are “the worst of the worst.”

On Monday, Kim, Sherrill, and New Jersey representatives Nellie Pou and LaMonica McIver were back at the facility along with about 150 protesters when federal agents sprayed the crowd with pepper balls and pepper spray. In a statement, DHS said: “No individuals were directly struck by pepper ball projectiles.” It then went on to call the protesters “dangerous rioters” and said their obstruction of the way out of the facility—preventing Soto’s removal—was “a federal crime.” It added that “assaulting law enforcement is a felony.”

In fact, far from being a dangerous rioter, then-representative Kim was caught on film in the evening of January 6, 2021, picking up the trash the actual rioters left behind in the Capitol.

On Monday afternoon, a DHS spokesperson said they had moved Soto to a different facility.

Representative McIver responded to DHS today, saying: “I was at Delaney Hall yesterday. Everything the detainees wrote in their S.O.S. letter is 100% correct. DHS is lying to keep their abuses from being exposed. And to make things worse, they pepper sprayed [Senator Andy Kim] and are lying about it to cover their tracks.”

The administration’s deportation policies were back in the news this weekend after the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), an agency within DHS, announced sweeping changes to policies for obtaining permanent residency in the U.S. Before this administration, about 800,000 people a year applied for a green card, and half of them applied from within the U.S. Now those people apparently will have to leave the country and apply through consulates abroad.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council explained that the new policy will “force people to leave their jobs, homes, and families for weeks or months, all at their own expense,” decisions made at consulates are “virtually unchallengeable” in court, and backlogs will get even worse than they already are. He notes that about half of all green cards go to people applying from within the U.S.: “everyone from spouses and children of US citizens to skilled professionals getting a green card through an employer.”

Law professor Daniel Kanstroom told Rebecca Schneid of Time magazine that it appears “[t]his Administration is trying to make it as difficult as possible for as many people as possible to attain permanent resident status.” Referring to the spouses and family members of people who are legal residents or U.S. citizens, he added: “We’re focusing now on the group of people who potentially have the strongest reasons to stay in this country legitimately.”

Schneid notes that in the Immigration and Nationality Act, Congress explicitly allowed people to change their residency status from within the U.S.

David Bier of the libertarian Cato Institute told Schneid that DHS has already slashed green card approvals in half simply by failing to process the applications.

On Friday, Judge Waverly Crenshaw of the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee dismissed the criminal charges against Kilmar Ábrego García. After wrongfully deporting Ábrego García to El Salvador, the administration facilitated his return only after securing an indictment against him for human smuggling, based on a 2022 traffic stop, saying he is a member of the Salvadoran gang MS-13.

Ábrego García had not faced charges from the traffic stop initially, and Crenshaw said the Justice Department’s reopening of the old case to prosecute Ábrego García after he had successfully challenged his deportation to El Salvador showed vindictive prosecution. “The evidence before this Court sadly reflects an abuse of prosecuting power,” Crenshaw said.

Sergio Martínez-Beltrán of NPR reported that DHS called Crenshaw’s decision “naked judicial activism” and vowed that “this Salvadorian is not going to remain in our country.”

In a statement, Ábrego García said, “Justice is a big word and an even bigger promise to fulfill; and I am grateful that today, justice has taken a step forward.”

Representative Maxwell Frost (D-FL) posted today that he had just visited so-called “Alligator Alcatraz,” which appears to be in the process of shutting down. He suggested that Florida governor Ron DeSantis and Trump haven’t wanted to admit it was closing because they have spent a billion dollars of taxpayer money on the site in less than a year.

But, Frost said, “we can’t allow this place to just shut down and then not talk about it anymore. That’s what they want because they used a billion of our dollars to enrich private contractors that built and operated the place. They want us to move on because they don’t want us to talk about the human rights abuses and civil rights abuses that happened there and in other facilities as well…. We have to continue to push for accountability and consequences for people who broke the law and misused our…money, meant for hurricane preparedness, to kidnap and cage our neighbors.”

Notes:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5894189-new-jersey-detention-center-sherrill/

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/nyregion/newark-ice-protest-arrest-ras-baraka.html

https://www.lahuelga.com/elgrito

https://www.lahuelga.com/sos

https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/22/delaney-hall-hunger-strike/

https://www.njspotlightnews.org/video/letter-from-delaney-hall-u-s-aided-immigrants-then-snatched-us/

https://www.thecity.nyc/2026/05/25/protesters-newark-ice-detention-delaney-hall-hunger-strike/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/15/us/ice-immigration-detention-centers-medical-care-deaths-invs-vis

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/05/25/dhs-debunks-new-jersey-sanctuary-politicians-smears-against-ice-facility

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/06/nx-s1-5425509/kilmar-abrego-garcia-el-salvador-deport-cecot-maryland-ice

https://www.npr.org/2026/05/22/nx-s1-5831958/federal-judge-dismisses-criminal-charges-against-kilmar-abrego-garcia

https://time.com/article/2026/05/23/green-card-changes-trump-explained/

X:

RepNellie/status/2058949020228198704

RepLaMonica/status/2059298223919878156

AndyKimNJ/status/2058624606085226502

DHSgov/status/2059110483928486057

Bluesky:

atrupar.com/post/3mmrk4vmwvc26

reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mmhke7mf7k2v

frost.house.gov/post/3mmrvwddl5s2q

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Politics Chat, May 26, 2026

Insane Coastal California Driftwood Skyscraper

I posted this on my blog a few years ago, and still can’t believe it. Here’s an article published in The Mirror (UK) by Chiara Fiorillo, News Reporter:

“A hermit may have lived in a precarious house perched on the side of a cliff in California for the past 10 years — but nobody seems to know who the man actually is.

A dilapidated three-storey structure, made of driftwood, was first spotted at Devil’s Slide in the San Francisco Bay Area in December 2022, when it was filmed by a drone. Stunned onlookers said the intriguing home was partially destroyed during the rainstorms that hit the Bay Area earlier this year but has since been rebuilt.

(Above: turn off the intrusive soundtrack.)

Live From California with Lloyd Kahn is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Drone operator @ParallaxEffect, who posted footage of the driftwood shack on YouTube, said he was hiking along the California coast with some friends when they noticed the property, which he described as ‘one of the most incredible human structures I’ve ever seen’.

The shack appears to have several rooms and is located on a steep San Mateo County rock face. The video shows wood and ropes in the structure as well as a boxing punching bag, several buoys, some old signs, and what appears to be a fully enclosed room.

On Google Earth, the shack appears to have a rope rising from it, which is linked to the Devil’s Slide trail above — and it may possibly be used as a means of entry and exit. A Google Maps satellite image also seems to show the structure intact as waves crash onto the rocks beneath it.”

If you look at the left, there appears to be a cave or tunnel. When blown up, there appears to be a pathway of rocks leading into it.???

(This was below Highway One, driving from San Francisco to Santa Cruz, in the vicinity of the Devil’s Slide tunnel.)

In my years of photographing driftwood shacks for the book: Driftwood Shacks: Anonymous Architecture Along the California Coast, I never saw anything faintly resembling this.

Wow!!

Thanks to Jeff Sinder and Ruth Kneass

www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/mystery-hermit-living-cliffside-shack-30955761

Thanks for reading Live From California with Lloyd Kahn! This post is public so feel free to share it.

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The Dumpster Fire of the Vanities

What to do When You're Faced With a Total Dumpster Fire at Work - Schaefer  Marketing Solutions: We Help Businesses {grow}

Busy day, so brief post

On Memorial Day the New York Times published an article with the headline “Trump is the only person who can save America, according to his cabinet.” The article offered a quantitative analysis of senior-official sycophancy. As the article notes, Donald Trump likes to hold long, televised cabinet meetings. In these meetings, according to the Times,

On average, at least one of every six sentences either flattered Mr. Trump, gave him credit or criticized his political opponents.

This “Dear Leader” treatment is unprecedented in American history. Regardless of how successful, no previous president has been showered with this kind of obsequiousness and deification.

Outside the MAGA bubble, Americans are increasingly seeing Trump as the loser he is. He has failed on every front. Manufacturing employment is down, inflation is outpacing wages, consumer sentiment is at a record low, mortgage rates are up. Trump’s war of choice has led to utter humiliation. According to current polls, Americans are giving Trump extremely low approval ratings, both overall and on every major issue — even border security:

Inside the MAGA fantasy bubble, however, Trump’s reign is hailed, almost literally, as the Second Coming.

Some of this reflects Trump’s own personality. His inner self is obviously a bottomless pit of insecurity. He self-medicates by demanding Pyongyang-level flattery, destroying national monuments and replacing them with garish, vulgar trash, persecuting critics and comedians, and starting stupid wars.

But Trump isn’t the first public figure to seek self-aggrandizement in an attempt to fill his inner emptiness. The important question is why the American right — not just his pathetic cabinet, but the whole movement, including the 6 extremistsRepublicans on the Supreme Court — has been so willing to empower him. And that’s a question much bigger than Trump himself.

The truth is that the right wing attempt to build a cult of personality around a deeply unpresidential figure, while it has reached new levels of absurdity under Trump, isn’t new. Republicans tried to do the same thing for George W. Bush. Remember this?

Was George W.Bush wearing rank and insignia when he landed the jet? :  r/Presidents

And readers of a certain age may recall that the right’s canonization of Ronald Reagan began while he was still in office.

It’s tempting to dismiss personality-cult theater as trivial, but it isn’t. When prominent people in a republic act as if they were living in a monarchy, the republic increasingly becomes a monarchy in reality.

Beyond that, influential Republicans have substantively granted Trump more personal power, more ability to act as a monarch, than any of his predecessors. Republicans in Congress have abandoned their role as an independent branch of government. In a recent post on X, Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House, sounded just like Trump’s cabinet members:

And the Roberts Supreme Court has gone most of the way toward giving Trump dictatorial powers.

Right-wing legal thinkers have increasingly embraced “unitary executive theory,” under which the entire executive branch — including agencies Congress has designated as independent — answers personally to the president, who can hire and fire officials at will. The Roberts Court hasn’t explicitly endorsed this theory. But the Court has given presidents absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts — effectively placing Trump above the law. And Roberts has declared that the president is “the only person who alone composes a branch of government,” which, combined with the subservience of both Congress and the Court itself, does in effect make Trump a dictator.

Why has the modern American right abandoned the idea of a constitutional republic and embraced rule by strongman? Good question — and one I’ll try to answer another day.

For now, let me just point out that while it may seem ironic that so much praise and power has been lavished on Trump, America’s most incompetent modern president, the combination of flattery and failure isn’t an accident. It is, in fact, a self-reinforcing doom loop.

Trump needs and demands sycophantic praise and unfettered power in part to compensate for the fact that he’s such an objective failure. And while his manifest unfitness is part of the explanation for his failure, his policy disasters also have a lot to do with the bubble that surrounds him. Nobody dares to tell him when he’s wrong. Nobody can stop him from indulging his whims, not matter how disastrous their consequences.

The point is that the dire state we’re in — the leader of the free world has turned against freedom, the greatest power the world has ever known is self-immolating before our eyes — isn’t just a matter of Donald Trump’s personal failings. It’s the culmination of decades of right-wing sabotage of everything that made American great.

MUSICAL CODA

Quoting Kyle Ferrana

PICARD: Data, shields up

DATA: Brilliant! Shields can reduce damage we sustain. Not immunity. Not hubris. Just prudence. It's not precaution—it's strategy.

[camera shakes]

WORF: HULL BREACHES ON NINE DECKS

DATA: Here's what happened: you told me to raise shields, and I didn't

Kyle Ferrana, @KyleTrainEmoji

Tags: ai-misuse, coding-agents, ai, llms

The pressure

The pressure

Daniel Stenberg on the unprecedented level of pressure the curl team are facing right now thanks to the deluge of (credible) AI-assisted security issues being reported.

The rate of incoming security reports is 4-5 times higher than it was in 2024 and double the speed of 2025 -- meaning that on average we now get more than one report per day. The quality is way higher than ever before. The reports are typically very detailed and long. [...]

For the first time in my life, my wife voiced concerns about my work hours and my imbalanced work/life situation. I work more than I’ve done before, but the flood keeps coming. [...]

This is a never-before seen or experienced pressure on the curl project and its security team members. An avalanche of high priority work that trumps all other things in the project that is primarily mental because we certainly could ignore them all if we wanted, but we feel a responsibility, we have a conscience and we are proud about our work.

The good news is that curl is a very solid piece of software, so the vulnerabilities people are finding tend not to be of high severity:

What is also a good trend: almost no one finds terrible vulnerabilities. All vulnerabilities found the last few years in curl have all been deemed severity LOW or MEDIUM. I'm not saying there won't be any more HIGH ever, but at least they are rare. The most recent severity high curl CVE was published in October 2023.

Via Lobste.rs

Tags: curl, security, ai, generative-ai, llms, daniel-stenberg, ai-ethics, ai-security-research

The meatseller

Painting of a white cow head in profile with a colourful tropical background and power lines.

Selinna is 15 when she leaves her home in Nigeria, bound for Italy, a journey as perilous as it is transformative

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Giga-IPOs are a symptom of public markets’ giga-problem

The incredible shrinking stockmarket

Seven ways to avoid losing your job to AI

That is the theme of my latest Free Press column, here is one excerpt:

Principle five: Run experiments.

This is a more general version of the healthcare point. AI will generate so many new ideas and hypotheses, including for drugs and medical devices, but not only. Become a tester. Test new battery designs, new educational techniques, or new methods of conserving valued wildlife.

The demand for experiments will rise sharply, and most of those cannot be done by robots, at least not anytime soon.

Principle six: Gather data.

AI is a marvelous tool, but it relies on knowing lots about the world. That can stem from reading the internet, watching videos of people folding clothes, and hearing recordings of voices, among many other ways of absorbing information.

The more powerful the AI, the higher the returns from feeding it data, because it will make smart and useful inferences from those data. But most data in our world have never been put into AI models. Just consider corporate records, historical archives, referee reports for failed scientific papers, accounts of lab procedures, and much more. Most of that remains virgin territory.

The next few decades will bring an immense investment in feeding more data into the AIs. So there will be new jobs in gathering environmental data, job safety data, construction site data, corporate and management data, public health data, agricultural data, education data, and much more. Those jobs could be yours.

Recommended.

The post Seven ways to avoid losing your job to AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Trump is Haunted by Barack Obama

Photo by Pete Souza

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Donald Trump is haunted by a specter. It pursues him, exposes him, mocks him. It’s why he started the Iran war, and why he can’t finish it.

That specter is Barack Obama.

Unfortunately, the two will be tied forever in history. It was Obama’s teasing at the 2011 White House Correspondents Dinner, with the audience laughing heartily while Trump sat grimly in silence, that sat like a burning coal in Trump’s gut, eventually leading him to run for president as much as an act of revenge as anything else.

And it was Obama’s presidency — not anything he did, mind you, just the fact of a Black man in the White House — that created the racial backlash that made it possible for Trump to win. In office, Trump has tried to undo everything associated with Obama, and it’s that impulse that brought us this war.

For Trump, this is intensely personal. You can tell how jealous and insecure Obama makes him, for in so many ways, Obama is what Trump wishes he could be. Every day when he looks in the mirror to apply his makeup, Trump sees the wrinkled face of a fat old man who might once have been good looking, but hasn’t been for a long time. Obama is (relatively) young and thin and handsome. All of Trump’s boasting is desperate and sad; Obama has a self-assurance that doesn’t need to shout. Obama is legitimately well-educated and smart; Trump feels horribly insecure around those with advanced degrees (the tell that he’s feeling that way is when he brings up his uncle who taught at MIT). Foreign leaders admired Obama yet have nothing but contempt for Trump; the same is true of the cultural elite whose approval Trump craves. The former president hangs with acclaimed artists and thinkers; Trump has to content himself with Kid Rock.

Whatever you thought of his presidency — and it had plenty of shortcomings — Obama has a coolness Trump knows he could never approach. He’s sleek and confident where Trump is garish and overcompensating. Trump brings up Joe Biden more often in conversation, because he can call Biden weak and old, but Obama hovers in the background, a sly smile on his face, always mocking Trump and his failures.

Trump’s reaction to Obama’s Iran deal is why we’re here

Trump’s insecurity where Obama is concerned is what led directly to the Iran War, and it’s why he can’t find a way out. Everything about how Trump has approached Iran in both his terms was in reaction to Obama, especially the nuclear deal completed near the end of his second term. Given where we are now, Trump’s trashing of that deal has to be considered one of the most extraordinary foreign policy screwups of the 21st century.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was the product of lengthy negotiation that included the U.S., Russia, China, France, Germany, and the U.K. It was finalized in 2015, and created a monitoring system to prevent Iran from enriching uranium beyond what could be used for civilian purposes. In exchange, Iran got sanctions relief and the return of some of its funds that had been frozen in western banks after the 1979 revolution.

From the outset, Republicans complained that the deal wasn’t harsh enough on Iran. But it worked. It didn’t solve every problem having to do with Iran (including its support for proxy groups that carried out acts of terrorism), but it did solve the nuclear problem, at least while it was in effect.

Which is why Trump’s national security team in his first term begged him not to withdraw from the agreement. But he didn’t listen; the deal had Obama’s name on it, and he couldn’t tolerate that. So in 2018 he abandoned it, insisting that because he was such a great dealmaker, Iran would come crawling back and give him anything he asked for. “They are going to want to make a new and lasting deal,” he said. But there was no plan, no strategy, no path to a new agreement. Inevitably, Iran resumed its efforts to put itself in a position to build nuclear weapons.

It was a mistake of monumental proportions, undertaken for the pettiest reasons and topped only by the war that it produced. Because Trump couldn’t stand to see Obama’s agreement remain intact, he killed it and put himself on the road to this idiotic war. And now he can’t end that war, because he’s still looking over his shoulder at Obama.

Here’s what Trump posted over the weekend:

At the moment, it looks like what the administration is negotiating is not “THE EXACT OPPOSITE, in fact!” but something that could look a lot like the original JCPOA. Iran will get sanctions relief and the release of its frozen funds, and in exchange, something or other will happen with its existing nuclear material and its ability to enrich uranium in the future (there’s disagreement on what that will look like). Only now, Iran will be able to demand more concessions for opening the Strait of Hormuz — in other words, returning to the status quo before Trump launched the war. The Iranian regime is in a far stronger position than it was before the war.

Then on Monday, Trump posted this:

It’s a reference to $1.7 billion in Iranian funds that were unfrozen as part of the deal (and were actually delivered in cash, because sanctions had cut Iran off from the international banking system). But, we should note, the Trump administration will almost inevitably be unfreezing more Iranian funds if and when they come to an agreement to end the war — and this time, it could be as much as $20 billion. And “Trump’s Iran policy” is a battleship sitting in the ocean shooting down drones, which is not exactly a picture of success.

But the point is this: As he makes decisions about Iran, Trump is still haunted by Obama. He can’t stop talking about him. I can promise you that whenever this war ends, whether with a signed agreement or Trump just declaring victory and going home, he will say that what he got was much better than Obama’s deal, because he’s so much smarter and stronger. He’ll say it, but he’ll know it isn’t true.

Thank you for reading The Cross Section. This site has no paywall, so I depend on the generosity of readers to sustain the work I present here. If you find what you read valuable and would like it to continue, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

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Orbit Fab, Thales Alenia to study refueling for electric-propulsion satellites

The companies will explore integrating Orbit Fab’s refueling interface with electric propulsion systems developed by Thales Alenia Space

The post Orbit Fab, Thales Alenia to study refueling for electric-propulsion satellites appeared first on SpaceNews.

Exolaunch and SEOPS purchase Falcon 9 launches for dedicated rideshare missions

Falcon 9 launch

Two companies best known for brokering payload space on SpaceX rideshare launches have each purchased Falcon 9 launches to meet the growing demand for such missions.

The post Exolaunch and SEOPS purchase Falcon 9 launches for dedicated rideshare missions appeared first on SpaceNews.

Starcloud orders Starlink lasers for orbital data center network

Starcloud has ordered optical terminals from SpaceX to use Starlink as a global data-relay network for its future orbital data centers, deepening ties with the company it is counting on to launch full-size spacecraft.

The post Starcloud orders Starlink lasers for orbital data center network appeared first on SpaceNews.

The surge in military budgets can help Europe’s entrepreneurial space sector — if spending speeds up

AMSTERDAM – The recent surge in European defense spending could bolster Europe’s entrepreneurial space sector, but only if bureaucratic roadblocks are cleared, panelists said at the SmallSat Europe conference. While […]

The post The surge in military budgets can help Europe’s entrepreneurial space sector — if spending speeds up appeared first on SpaceNews.

Voyager wins DARPA contract for solid rocket propellant technology

The $16.5 million award is for ‘thrust-control technology’ designed to make solid propulsion systems more adaptable across different missions and weapons programs

The post Voyager wins DARPA contract for solid rocket propellant technology appeared first on SpaceNews.

Regulations and access to capital continue to hinder Europe’s smallsat industry

TAS Smart Factory

Burdensome regulations and limited access to capital continue to act as a drag on Europe’s smallsat sector despite proposed new legislation and an influx of defense spending.

The post Regulations and access to capital continue to hinder Europe’s smallsat industry appeared first on SpaceNews.

Chinese startup Mega Engine advances reusable staged-combustion rocket engine

A new Chinese commercial rocket engine startup has conducted a successful long-duration hot fire test of a closed-cycle kerosene-liquid oxygen engine.

The post Chinese startup Mega Engine advances reusable staged-combustion rocket engine appeared first on SpaceNews.

Identifying People Using Wi-Fi Routers

Not identifying people based on their use of Wi-Fi routers, but identifying people using Wi-Fi signals.

This is accomplished through what is known as WiFi sensing, or the use of WiFi signals to infer information about a physical environment. When radio signals like WiFi travel through a space, they interact with the objects and people around them. Those signals can be reflected, scattered, or absorbed. By analyzing how the signal is expected to behave compared with how it is actually received, researchers can infer details about the surrounding environment.

“By observing the propagation of radio waves, we can create an image of the surroundings and of persons who are present,” said Thorsten Strufe, a KIT professor and study co-author, in a press release. “This works similar to a normal camera, the difference being that in our case, radio waves instead of light waves are used for the recognition.”

SpaceX wins $2.29 billion Space Force contract for military data network

The contract is for the development of the U.S. Space Force’s Space Data Network backbone

The post SpaceX wins $2.29 billion Space Force contract for military data network appeared first on SpaceNews.

NASA selects four companies for initial moon base awards

Blue Moon and Astrolab rover

NASA announced May 26 the first contracts associated with its plans to develop a lunar base, picking four companies to develop and deliver landers and drones to the moon.

The post NASA selects four companies for initial moon base awards appeared first on SpaceNews.

Open Cosmos’ CEO on what it takes to bring IoT to space

Open Cosmos, based in the United Kingdom, is facing a 2028 deadline to field an ambitious broadband constellation for Europe. That system, ConnectedCosmos, aims to reduce reliance on undersea cables […]

The post Open Cosmos’ CEO on what it takes to bring IoT to space appeared first on SpaceNews.

Saving the Country Game, You Can Play at Home

I went to my college reunion this weekend. It was cold and rainy at a time of the year when it’s supposed to be warm and sunny or at least warm and rainy. So I didn’t stay as long as I’d planned. But in the short time I was there, I had a number of people come up to me and say that I’d brought them around on the idea of Court reform. This was about things I’ve written here in the Editors’ Blog but, interestingly and somewhat surprisingly to me, far more of the comments were about things I’ve said on the podcast. This was of course gratifying to hear personally. But I note it here because it was an example, out in the wild if you will, of the broader pattern: a sea change in ideas, goals and judgments of the Supreme Court and the necessity of reform. I saw it at this elite university reunion. I’m seeing more and more examples of it within the legal academy – at least the beginnings of it. And perhaps most importantly we’re seeing discussion about it from elected members of Congress.

What’s the next step there? One thing I get asked about again and again is what can individual people do? A related question is, how do we clear out the old consultants, or the old foreign policy hands or the old advisors and staffers, etc. etc. That’s inherently challenging.

But there’s something very direct we can do on this issue. It’s not something any of us can do individually on our own. But it’s something we can be a part of. And it has a big, big effect. We’re still a few months out from the 2026 midterms and we’re more than two years out from the 2028 general election (after which comes the first moment when all of this stuff could actually happen). What we can do is be part of establishing litmus tests for elected office as a Democrat. Two critical ones, I would say maybe the most critical are: abolish the filibuster and reform the Court.

“Litmus tests” get a bad name. In American political discourse, they are usually framed as cheap and narrow-minded things that single-issue activists use to constrain or maybe eliminate statesman-like behavior. Think about it for a moment, and I think you’ll see that the phrase is almost always used this way. It’s almost never used as a positive thing. But that’s wrong. What litmus tests do is create clarity, truth in advertising. When you vote for candidate X, you know what you’re getting. They’ve given a clear promise that they support a particular thing and will do, if given the opportunity, a particular thing. If they don’t come through, they can be voted out of office. The promises need to be crisp and clearly framed. Politicians will almost always try to avoid that. They want to retain freedom of action. You’ll see this so often in the Senate when the caucus moves as a pack resisting demands to say clearly what they do and don’t support on critical issues. But when questions or pledges are framed tightly enough that becomes very difficult.

That’s what we can all do. We can use all our avenues of expression, our financial contributions, our voting and generic advocacy to shape and enforce a new set of rules, a new set of assumptions about what Democrats will do when they are in power again. You’ll also need a lot of new people. Some will have to be forced into retirement. There will have to be expectations about new advisors and policy hands. But where we can all make our voices and demands heard is building this set of litmus tests: making it clear that it’s not acceptable to be elected to Congress as a Democrat without supporting abolishing the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court.

Ever Restless Mount Dukono Erupts

An ash-rich plume streams northwest from the volcano amidst scattered puffy, white clouds.
An ash-rich volcanic plume streams from the volcano on May 13, 2026, in this image captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9.  
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin

In May 2026, the Global Volcanism Program reported nine actively erupting volcanoes in Indonesia—more than any other country at the time. Such activity is typical for the Southeast Asian archipelago, where eruptions have occurred at 55 volcanoes since the 1960s—the highest total for any country. Japan ranks second with eruptions at 40 volcanoes over that time period, followed by the United States with 39, according to Global Volcanism Program data.

Even for such an eruption-prone country, the persistence of activity at Mount Dukono stands out. The remote stratovolcano, located at the northern end of Halmahera Island, has been erupting nearly continuously since 1933, with near-daily rumbles and frequent emissions of ash and volcanic gases. The volcano routinely flings hunks of semi-molten rock, known as volcanic bombs, hundreds of meters from its vent.

This sort of activity at Dukono turned deadly on May 8, 2026, when ash and volcanic bombs rained down on a group of hikers. In the days following the tragedy, the mountain remained highly active. Indonesia’s volcanological survey reported an average of 52 eruptive events per day between May 9 and 16, with ash plumes rising 400 to 4,300 meters (1,300 feet to 14,000 feet) above the summit.

NASA and other U.S. government satellites detected thermal anomalies, ash plumes, and sulfur dioxide emissions in recent days. Indonesian authorities have set the alert level at 2 (on a scale of 4) and warned the public to stay at least 4 kilometers (2 miles) from the crater.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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The post Ever Restless Mount Dukono Erupts appeared first on NASA Science.

Can liberals be pacifists?

This is mostly a podcast about Benjamin Britten, and in particular his War Requiem, with Rebecca Lowe (former singer and conductor, in addition to philosopher and also her current role at Mercatus).

Here is the YouTube, here is the transcript and further listening links.  Excerpt:

LOWE: Yeah, so we should think about what it means for a conscientious objector to have written this work, which is supposed, in some sense, to maybe pay tribute to the soldiers. Maybe, in some sense, it’s supposed to play some role in the British response to the war. At a time when, of course, conscientious objectors had been seen as maybe betraying the nation. There are very interesting, tense questions about the choice of Britten to compose this work.

COWEN: And Benjamin Britten himself, he described the work as a reparation.

LOWE: Yes.

COWEN: Paid to the dead soldiers.

LOWE: That’s right.

COWEN: I think in some ways, he always had World War I more in mind than World War II. But other parties involved, of course, didn’t see it that way.

LOWE: That’s true.

COWEN: But Wilfred Owen was a World War I poet. And that was the formative experience for him, was World War I. And also, the Spanish Civil War influenced him greatly. So, he wanted to do this work, and I’m not sure he ever found a way to make it succeed with World War II. That, to me, is one of the drawbacks of the work.

Definitely recommended, it is fresh material throughout.  Can you find a better podcast on Britten and his War Requiem, arguably his greatest work?  And here is the Rebecca Lowe Substack and podcast more generally.

The post Can liberals be pacifists? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Rock-em, Sock-em Redistricting Continues

The South Carolina state senate has just again killed the state’s redistricting bill. Given what’s already happened — definitely happening, definitely not happening, definitely re-happening with the help of the governor — I wouldn’t say anything should be treated as final. But it’s another major reverse. And it certainly seems like a sign these senators aren’t kidding, whatever Trump threatens.

As we discussed a few weeks ago, South Carolina is already VERY gerrymandered. Distribute Rep. Jim Clyburn’s voters to the rest of the delegation and you have a real chance in a wave year that you lose net seats. Not saying that would be guaranteed to happen. But I think it’s the real driver in the Senate.

Genie Lessons from Genie Sessions: Prose as a Programming Language

This session is sponsored by OpenProse. More on them below — they're also the reason we're here.


Dan Barrett built OpenProse — a framework that lets you write programs in structured English and run them with an AI agent like Claude Code. The description sounds either obvious or impossible depending on your priors. When I told him it sounded impossible, he said: “People were shocked that it works.”

So we installed it and built something live.

The project: a service that would show me tides, weather, sunrise, moonrise — everything I want to know before a walk along the coast. One command. A few minutes. It came back with an hourly tide chart for Montara (I picked a town I don’t actually live in), fog conditions, waxing crescent moon, the works.

Here’s what interested me about the architecture underneath.

Each OpenProse component has a requires block and an ensures block. Requires is what the component expects from its caller. Ensures is what it promises to produce. I said that looks like a function — domain and range. Dan said think more like a service. The distinction matters: when you have many components, an inversion-of-control container wires them together by matching ensures blocks to requires blocks. The same way Spring would wire Java components — except the whole thing is written in structured English and run by an LLM.

The Dijkstra objection comes up immediately: natural language is too ambiguous to be a programming language. Dan’s answer: we don’t know what’s possible until we walk the landscape. Plenty of people would have said nothing is possible with prose. That’s clearly not true. The question is just where the edges are — and you can only find those by trying.

The ensures block is effectively a postcondition. It’s what every sibling component can rely on. When I asked about extract method — you write one of these things, it grows, eventually you pull a piece out and name it — Dan said yes, all the time. Usually just by asking Claude to do exactly that.

The other clever piece: sub-agents pass pointers instead of data. Variable bindings are files. The pointers are file paths. When a sub-agent produces a giant context block — a full PDF analysis, a research output, a tide chart — it writes it to disk and hands back the path. The main thread stays clean. Context management, done at the file system level.

I’m building a Smalltalk VM from scratch right now — yes, literally writing a VM — and watching this I thought about how different it is to build a virtual machine when your primitives are LLM calls instead of machine instructions. My VM is 1000x faster. But the primitives here are so much larger that on the right problems, it’s a wash.

What’s next for OpenProse is interesting. Dan’s thesis is that the whole industry is moving toward declaring outcomes and letting agents figure out the path. Codex has a /goal feature. Anthropic just shipped something called Outcomes in their API. The pattern is: specify what you want to be true, not how to make it true. OpenProse is an early articulation of that idea at the framework level.

One of my many projects from the last 40 years is now actually possible. The genie just got smarter.


Dan is at @IRL_DanB on Twitter and dan@openprose.ai. OpenProse is open source — search it on GitHub and follow along. He loves feedback and means it.

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NASA outlines nearly $1 billion investment into initial Moon Base missions

An artist’s rendering of a Blue Origin Blue Moon Mark 1 lunar lander deploying Astrolab’s Crewed Lunar Vehicle (CLV-1) on the surface of the Moon. Graphic: Astrolab

NASA’s vision for a future, long-term sustained presence on the Moon gained more clarity on Tuesday as the agency announced a series of contract awards for future robotic missions.

The agency announced that two companies developing lunar terrain vehicles (LTVs), Astrolab and Lunar Outpost, would each be receiving contracts valued at about $220 million each to finish their designs and get them to the Moon’s surface. 

Astrolab’s Crewed Lunar Vehicle (CLV-1) takes after its original design, called FLEX, and Lunar Outpost’s Pegasus vehicle takes heritage from its earlier Eagle design. NASA previously put out a call for LTVs that would be capable of surviving on the Moon for up to 10 years, but revised its requirements to have more readily available options to augment earlier astronaut missions.

Connected to that, NASA also awarded the LTV delivery contract to Blue Origin, using it’s Blue Moon Mark 1 lander in a contract that’s worth $234 million for each LTV delivered.

“Since the beginning, Blue Origin has been committed to Lunar Permanence,” wrote Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp in a post on X. “Thank you, @NASAadmin, for sharing that vision. We’re ready to make it a reality.”

The announcement came during a news conference at NASA’s headquarters in Washington D.C.. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said these and other upcoming missions, scheduled to begin in the back half of 2026, that will lay the early ground work for an enduring presence on the Moon’s South Pole.

“As we announced during the Ignition event, we intend to take an iterative approach, sending a demand signal to industry for a lot of landers and rovers and tech demonstrations and all the scientific payloads these missions can accommodate,” Isaacman said.

“We are leveraging the NASA playbook from the 1960s, figuring out what works and what doesn’t in this epic science of survival because the Moon Base is as beautiful as it is hostile.”

In these early days of crewed landings during the Artemis era, LTVs will need be deployed at a safe distance from the Human Landing System (HLS) landers being provided by SpaceX and Blue Origin. They will kick up quite a bit of lunar regolith during their landing burns, which could damage an LTV if it’s too close.

“Protecting for [plume surface interaction], we plan to keep the LTVs approximately 2 km away when the landers land,” said Ryan Stephan, NASA’s acting director for cargo landers. He previously served as the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) Technical Deputy based at Glenn Research Center.

“They’ll traverse in, be able to pick up the crew, and then do missions up to like 10 km during the crewed period and then uncrewed, like Carlos said, a total of like 400 km throughout the lifetime.”

Moon Base Program Executive Carlos García-Galán said NASA envisioned footprint of the Moon Base to be “hundreds of square miles with different assets, all building up to the objective of permanent lunar presence on the Moon.”

An artist’s rendering of Firefly Aerospace’s Elytra Dark spacecraft deploying NASA’s MoonFall hopper drones on the Moon. Graphic: Firefly Aerospace

The first piece of the pie, dubbed Phase One, extends from now through 2029 and was the focus of Tuesday’s briefing. In addition to the lander and rover contracts announced, García-Galán also unveiled Firefly Aerospace as the recipient of a $75 million subcontract awarded by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to deploy a series of lunar drones on the MoonFall mission.

During this technology demonstration, which will take place in 2028, one of Firefly’s Elytra Dark spacecraft will fly to the Moon over the course of 45 days before it enters lunar orbit. It will then de-orbit and deploy the drones about 50 km above the Moon’s South Pole.

These hopper drones are designed to last one lunar day (14 Earth days) and will test out the basic technology as well as performing imaging and scouting for future sites of interest.

“High-resolution imagery across all mission phases, including the deployment, the landing, and nominal operations of staying in-situ or hopping around,” García-Galán said. “It will continue image collect during an extended mission and it will analyze different sites for unprecedented detail and basically allowing us to build our understanding of soil mechanics, the terrain, the lighting conditions in-situ of wherever we want to go.”

The MoonFall drones can also have the capability of setting up what García-Galán called a “Moon Base perimeter” that would go on the corners of areas “where we think we have either key scientific objectives or we want to build up the Moon Base.”

Asked whether such a perimeter would act as a keep-out zone for nations not party to the Artemis Accords, an agreement for Deep Space best practices and understanding, Isaacman said it lent to the importance of reaching the Moon first before nations that the U.S. sees as adversaries, like China.

“I think the idea that there are areas of great interest on the lunar surface, we do want to get there and explore them and we also obviously want to be very mindful of the Outer Space Treaty, so that we are respectful of other nations that are putting assets on the lunar surface and we would expect that to be reciprocal,” Isaacman said.

Three missions that were formerly part of the original CLPS program were redesigned as Moon Base Missions 1-3:

  • Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mk.1 – Fall 2026
  • Astrobotic’s Griffin-1 – late 2026
  • Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 – late 2026

What are these strange space globs? What are these strange space globs?


Tuesday 26 May 1663

Lay long in bed talking and pleasing myself with my wife. —[We have had several examples such as this, in the past few days diary, of Mr. Wheatley tiring of his self-imposed work of censorship. D.W.]— So up and to my office a while and then home, where I found Pembleton, and by many circumstances I am led to conclude that there is something more than ordinary between my wife and him, which do so trouble me that I know not at this very minute that I now write this almost what either I write or am doing, nor how to carry myself to my wife in it, being unwilling to speak of it to her for making of any breach and other inconveniences, nor let it pass for fear of her continuing to offend me and the matter grow worse thereby. So that I am grieved at the very heart, but I am very unwise in being so.

There dined with me Mr. Creed and Captain Grove, and before dinner I had much discourse in my chamber with Mr. Deane, the builder of Woolwich, about building of ships. But nothing could get the business out of my head, I fearing that this afternoon by my wife’s sending every [one] abroad and knowing that I must be at the office she has appointed him to come. This is my devilish jealousy, which I pray God may be false, but it makes a very hell in my mind, which the God of heaven remove, or I shall be very unhappy. So to the office, where we sat awhile.

By and by my mind being in great trouble I went home to see how things were, and there I found as I doubted Mr. Pembleton with my wife, and nobody else in the house, which made me almost mad, and going up to my chamber after a turn or two I went out again and called somebody on pretence of business and left him in my little room at the door (it was the Dutchman, commander of the King’s pleasure boats, who having been beat by one of his men sadly, was come to the office to-day to complain) telling him I would come again to him to speak with him about his business. So in great trouble and doubt to the office, and Mr. Coventry nor Sir G. Carteret being there I made a quick end of our business and desired leave to be gone, pretending to go to the Temple, but it was home, and so up to my chamber, and as I think if they had any intention of hurt I did prevent doing anything at that time, but I continued in my chamber vexed and angry till he went away, pretending aloud, that I might hear, that he could not stay, and Mrs. Ashwell not being within they could not dance. And, Lord! to see how my jealousy wrought so far that I went softly up to see whether any of the beds were out of order or no, which I found not, but that did not content me, but I staid all the evening walking, and though anon my wife came up to me and would have spoke of business to me, yet I construed it to be but impudence, and though my heart full yet I did say nothing, being in a great doubt what to do. So at night, suffered them to go all to bed, and late put myself to bed in great discontent, and so to sleep.

Read the annotations

Links 5/26/26

Links for you. Science:

On reforming the NIH (excellent, must-read; accessible to non-specialists, and why parts of the “Abundance” agenda are ill-formed hooey)
Inside the Race to Develop a Test for the Rare Andes Hantavirus
Hantavirus Isn’t Just a Threat. It’s a Test. (“…the most pressing question for health leaders isn’t how worried we should be, in part because the threat remains effectively zero for anyone who hasn’t come into close contact with those on board. The question is how seriously health officials are taking the disease, since they are the ones in a position to keep the outbreak small and contained.”)
LLM hallucinations in the wild: Large-scale evidence from non-existent citations
Prokaryotic Pangenomes Are Bet-Hedging Devices
Real-life Snuffleupagus found swimming in the Great Barrier Reef
Virologist accused of starting COVID-19 will fight U.S. ban on funding

Other:

How the 120th Congress Can Crush the Gerrymandered Maps. Democrats will have—and in Virginia, do have—the tools to win the redistricting free-for-all. (regardless, Democrats should still remove the VA Supreme Court)
Democrats still hope ‘the people’ will do their work for them
No one wants a permanent gerontocracy
Institutional Rot And The Death Rattle Of America
Rather Than Whining About the Media, We Should Fight to Win
You’re paying Kash Patel to … go snorkeling?
Meet the candidates for an At-Large seat on the D.C. Council
A Nonprofit Accusing Janeese Lewis George of Ethics Violations Has a Board Member With Ties to Kenyan McDuffie’s Campaign
Library holds taking forever? You’re not alone.
Mamdani Announces Balanced Budget Without Cuts. Buoyed by billions in assistance from the state, real talk about what it takes to run New York City, and some taxes on the rich, the mayor closed a historic leftover budget deficit.
Behind the Claude Frenzy That Ate Up All the Mac Minis
The revolt against i-Ready: Private equity-backed software faces parent, teacher and student fury
The clippening
Why it took 65 years for L.A. to build its most important rail line
The DOGE-ing of the Humanities Is Being Reversed
What Suddenly Made Jon Ossoff Into Such a Democratic Rock Star?
‘McCarthyism with a Texas Accent’
RFK Jr.’s next vaccine moves could upend White House election-year messaging (and kill people too…)
Meet the Sad Wives of AI. Are you married to a man who’s obsessed with AI? I’m so, so sorry.
Whiteness is a pay cut. That’s the lesson America should learn but won’t.
The Supreme Court Has Unleashed ‘Jim Crow 2.0’ As The South Rolls Back Black Representation
Could Brain-drain Leave Israel Brain-dead?
Trump’s National Prayer Event Features Speakers Who Smeared Catholicism, Islam
‘Are You a Zionist?’ Why This Question Is No Longer Relevant
‘Outright Lies’: House Dem Posts Receipts After Eric Trump Denies Family Investments
How the Military Mindset Has Crushed Our Country’s Men
Federal Agents Target Immigrant Rights Volunteers With 3 A.M. Home Raids
Trump Is Rooting Around in the Public Trough
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An Uncanny Moment for Jazz Lovers

Today feels like the end of an era for jazz fans. Something has changed—that’s the pervasive mood right now. And things will never be like they were before.

Yesterday, saxophonist Sonny Rollins died at age 95. And today is the centenary of Miles Davis’s birth (back in Alton, Illinois on May 26, 1926). The juxtaposition of those two events is unsettling.

I was planning to celebrate Miles at 100 today, but now I’m also grieving the death of the last superstar of that same generation. Put those two milestones together, and it’s an uncanny moment.


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Rollins was the last surviving musician who had appeared in the most famous jazz photo in history—the “Great Day in Harlem” image from August 12, 1958. That was when 57 illustrious musicians gathered together at 17 East 126th Street for an Esquire magazine photo shoot.

The image was used to illustrate an article called “Golden Age of Jazz”—and it really was golden back then. Most of the jazz greats were still alive, and a star-studded assembly of them had gathered together in one spot.

That photo is like Raphael’s School of Athens for jazz fans. It’s a stirring visual reminder that these legends were once real people, and coexisted in the same time and place.

In 1996, Life magazine commissioned Gordon Parks to gather the survivors for an updated photo at the same location. The building was by now decrepit, bricked up and covered with graffiti—and only 11 musicians appeared for the reunion.

Their numbers continued to dwindle and, after Benny Golson’s death in 2024, Sonny Rollins was the last survivor of that Great Day. But now he’s gone—and this Golden Age survives only in the fading memories of older jazz fans

We still have the recordings, of course. In those grooves, these artists live on forever young, full of funk and fire. Miles and Rollins not only survive this way, but are still joined together as they were in real life in Rudy Van Gelder’s studio back in 1954.

But the permanence of vinyl can’t hide the larger fact—namely that jazz history of this sort can no longer be experienced live and in-the-flesh. This is a relatively recent phenomenon.

When I first became a jazz fan, the recorded history of the music wasn’t even fifty years old. I could see the pioneers of every style of jazz on the bandstand —and that was true whether I focused on Chicago jazz legends of the 1920s or Swing Era stars of the 1930s or the beboppers of the 1940s. And on and on.

You couldn’t even call this jazz history—it was just jazz, plain and simple, in all its living glory. And I nowadays describe this as my education, but it didn’t feel like schooling back then. It was too much fun for that.

I now write books of jazz history—but they are a poor substitute for those kinds of immersive experiences. But still, I try my best to capture in my books the unfettered enjoyment of those direct and unmediated encounters with the jazz greats.

If we ever lose the fun of this music, we will be in bad shape indeed. Preserving it isn’t easy in the present day, when jazz is primarily propagated at schools and colleges—and is permeated with a pedagogical zeal that was completely unknown to the music’s originators.

Don’t get me wrong, Louis Armstrong most certainly educated a bunch of people—but they were rarely aware of it. They thought they were out for an evening of fun and revelry.

Even Miles and Rollins understood that—they knew they were serious artists, but they never tried to demonstrate jazz history. They just embodied it. And brought it to life, night after night, on the road and in front of paying audiences.

So go ahead and listen to those classic records today and pay homage to the dearly departed. But if we really want to hold on to their gift from the past, the best way is by supporting jazz out in the wild—at the jam session, in the clubs, even out on the streets.

Even so, I will dwell happily in nostalgia for a little while longer today—and share two of my favorite videos of live jazz. They feature the two musicians I’m thinking about right now.

First, here’s a film of Sonny Rollins in full flight. This gripping performance from 1986 serves as the opening for Robert Mugge’s documentary Saxophone Colossus. When I first saw it, I was unaware of the injury Rollins had sustained during the filming. That only adds to drama.

And here’s a rare video of Miles Davis playing “So What” (from the iconic Kind of Blue album) alongside John Coltrane. As hard as it is to believe, this kind of music was once on television.

So today I celebrate these past masters, and invite you to do the same. Tomorrow let’s help build a musical culture for the future they would be proud of.

*How to Win a Trade War: An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy*

That is the new Soumaya Keynes book, out today.  I was happy to have blurbed this book, and here is an essay, on export restrictions, based on the book.

The post *How to Win a Trade War: An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Analyst on China's spent rocket stages: "Things only continue to get worse"

Up until a decade ago, China had never launched as many as 20 orbital rockets a year. But beginning in 2022, the Asian country launched 64 rockets and last year reached a record total of 93, marking it as the second-most productive space power in the world.

Further growth is anticipated from both the company's state-owned enterprises as well as a rapidly expanding number of private launch companies. There is nothing wrong with this, as China's rapid growth in launch has been mirrored by the United States and, in particular, SpaceX.

However there is an issue with these launches, as China appears to be ignoring long-established norms about disposing of the upper stages of rockets. These are the parts of the vehicle that separate from the first stage of a rocket and push a satellite or spacecraft into orbit.

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Investment Grade Forecasts actually over-estimate future traffic

The Interstate Bridge Replacement project’s investment grade analysis traffic and revenue analysis shows the $15 billion project will be a waste of money that will serve fewer vehicles in 2050 than use the bridge today.  And it will cause tens of thousands of vehicles to divert to the parallel I-205 bridge, increasing traffic, congestion and pollution.

IBR’s generously funded public relations team is trying to divert attention from these inconvenient truths with a pat talking point:  They’re falsely claiming that the investment grade analysis (a much more detailed, sophisticated and accurate set of models, required by banks and the federal government) is somehow an excessively conservative, low-ball, worst-case estimate, useful only for assessing financial risk.  That’s simply untrue:  Investment grade analyses have been much more accurate in practice that highway department forecasts, and importantly, haven’t been too conservative:  traffic levels often fall well below investment grade forecast  predictions.  That’s been the case in Washington State, where both the major toll bridge projects–the Tacoma Narrows Bridge and the SR 520 Bridge in Seattle–have fallen far below their investment grade predictions.

IBR claims we needed a bridge big enough to handle 180,000 vehicles per day.  The results of the Investment Grade Analysis show charging $4.60 tolls to use I-5 will cause traffic to drop from 127,000 vehicles today to about 77,000, and traffic won’t recover to current levels for several decades.  And even that is likely a wild exaggeration.  And IBR has failed to disclose that tens of thousands of vehicles will divert to the I-205 bridge.  These numbers are ominous for the project:  What they mean is that with tolls, there’s no reason to spend literally billions to widen I-5 between Portland and Vancouver–that roadway will go largely unused for decades.  At the same time, tolling the I-5 crossing will snarl traffic elsewhere in the region.  This investment grade analysis shows that the IBR is a tragic and costly mistake that will squander billions and make traffic worse.

The two highway deparment’s are desperate to divert attention from these numbers–which they have been delaying for years.  IBR’s talking point is  these are “conservative” numbers, only to be used for financial analysis:  “pay no attention to the investment grade forecast we just spent a couple of million bucks on.”  They claim that the projections are a kind of “low-ball” or worst case analysis to conservatively estimate revenues, and can’t be used to characterize real world effects, especially traffic diversion.  Willamette Week reports:

A project spokeswoman confirms the Stantec analysis does indeed show a large drop in daily traffic but says the numbers are a worst-case scenario. “Estimates for this financial analysis include an additional layer of conservatism to allow for a period of transition as the community adjusts to tolling,” she says. . . . “The traffic and revenue analysis work is an exercise to determine revenue projections and takes a fiscally conservative approach,” the project spokeswoman says. “[That] tends to project lower bridge usage so as to not overstate revenue potential.”

None of that is true.  These expensive investment grade analyses are required by markets and the federal government precisely because state highway departments inevitably have “optimism bias” leading them to build over-sized, expensive facilities, and to count on toll revenues from traffic that never materializes.  The whole point of an investment grade analysis is to not take on expensive debt that can’t be repaid because in reality, far fewer people will pay to take a tolled road than a free one.

Investment grade analyses are more accurate, more carefully researched and have lower errors than highway department modeling.  That’s why WSDOT and ODOT spent $700,000 on a “Level 2” traffic and revenue analysis for the IBR in 2023, and spent a further $2.3 million, with the same company, Stantec–to produce a “Level 3” study over the past two years.  The Level 3 study uses more detailed and sophisticated measures, particularly on “value of time” to estimate how traveler behavior will respond to tolls.  And the Level 2 and Level 3 studies are much more accurate than DOT forecasts:  The modeling IBR used for its EIS has an error six times greater than the Stantec Level 2 model, and consistently over forecasts current travel levels.

While they’re less inaccurate than highway department projections, the truth is that even investment grade analyses have optimism bias, and routinely over-estimate traffic on tolled facilities.

That’s certainly been the experience of WSDOT, Oregon’s partner in the Interstate Bridge Project.  WSDOT has built two major bridge projects in the last couple of decades, and financed them substantially (though not entirely) with tolls.  These are the Tacoma Narrows Bridge (built in 2008) and SR 520 Floating Bridge (built in 2012).  Like the proposed IBR, both projects added tolls to a previously free crossing.  In both cases, WSDOT hired consultants to prepare an “Investment Grade Analysis” of traffic and revenue of the projects.

And in both cases, the investment grade analyses seriously over-estimated future traffic levels.  And not by a little, but by a lot.

  • Seattle’s SR 520 Floating Bridge, traffic fell by a third, and has never recovered, current traffic is 33 percent below levels forecast in the Investment Grade Analysis.
  • Tacoma Narrows Bridge, traffic has grown at only one-third the rate (0.7 percent per year) of the level forecast in the Investment Grade Analysis.

Both of these bridges provide cautionary tales about the biases in traffic forecasting.  Enough time has elapsed now—more than a decade in the case of each project—to allow us to reasonably compare forecasts to actual travel.  There’s utterly no merit to the claim that Investment Grade analyses are unrealistically low, as state DOT officials proclaim.

Similarly, WSDOT”s experience with tolls on the SR 99 tunnel under downtown Seattle—built to replace the now demolished Alaskan Way Viaduct—shows that forecasts are frequently wrong, and routinely over-estimate both revenue and traffic.  When the project was authorized, WSDOT officials promised $400 million in bonds supported by toll revenues, but then—after construction was authorized—slashed the bond amount in half to $200 million because traffic studies showed revenue would be much lower than hoped for.  Even then, the SR 99 bonds have had to be bailed out by the state legislature.

Investment Grade Analyses of tolled highway facilities do not tend to under-estimate future traffic levels; if anything, investment grade traffic and revenue studies tend to over-state future traffic levels and associated revenue.  The claim that investment grade studies are “too conservative” implies that such studies routinely under-estimate traffic levels on tolled roads (i.e. that actual traffic levels are significantly higher than shown in the investment grade analysis).  While the IBR asserts that this is true, they present no actual statistical evidence to show that investment grade studies under estimate traffic.  In fact, studies that have been done show that actual traffic levels on tolled facilities are lower than forecast by these supposedly “conservative”.

Tacoma Narrows Bridge:  2 million cars below forecast

The second span of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge was opened in 2008.  It was financed in principal part by tolls.  Wilbur Smith and Associates prepared an Investment Grade Traffic and Revenue Analysis for WSDOT, which predicted that annual traffic—measured by vehicle toll transactions—would grow at a rate of 1.7 percent per year over the forecast period.  Total transactions were predicted to grow from slightly more than 14 million to more than 18 million by 2025.  In fact, annual transactions have been below forecast levels ever since 2009.  Actual growth in transactions since the bridge opened have been 0.6 percent per year, barely a third of the growth rate predicted in the Investment Grade Analysis.  Aggregate traffic growth has been less than half of the amount predicted, increasing by about 2 million transactions per year since the bridge opened, rather than about 4 million transactions.

 

SR 520 Floating Bridge:30,000 cars per day below forecast, continuing diversion to I-90

WSDOT completed the replacement portion of the SR 520 floating bridge in 2012, paying for the project in part with tolls, which are assessed on a variable basis.  The investment grade analysis prepared by Wilbur Smith predicted their would be a sharp drop-off in traffic on the bridge when tolls were introduced, and that once that shock was over, traffic levels would grow at an annual rate of almost 3 percent per year.  The forecast accurately predicted the initial decline in traffic, but over the past decade, has consistently under-estimated traffic growth.  Traffic levels on the SR 520 floating bridge today are about one-third lower than predicted by the Investment Grade Analysis, about 60,000 vehicles per day, rather than the predicted 90,000.

 

 

The SR 520 bridge is one of two crossing Lake Washington.  Before it was expanded (and tolled) the SR-520 bridge carried slightly fewer vehicles than the parallel I-90 bridge, about 3 miles to the South (as the crow flies).  Just before tolls were imposed in 2011, the I-90 bridge carried about 18,000 more vehicles daily than the SR-520 bridge.  Since then, traffic has gone up on I-90 and gone down on SR-520.  Today about 80,000 more vehicles use the I-90 bridge compared to the SR-520 bridge (138,000 vs. 58,000).  The data also put the lie to claims that this is somehow all about Covid:  both bridges saw a decline in 2020, but while I-90 fully rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, SR 520 has made up only half of the decline.

 

These data directly contradict claims that Assistant ODOT Administrator Travis Brauer made in testimony to the Oregon Transportation Commission on May 7, 2026.  Without citing any data, Brouwer acknowledged that while traffic fell off after SR 520 was tolled, and traffic increased on the parallel I-90 route that somehow there was a “gradual increase” in SR 520 traffic, and that diversion was not “one-to-one”:

That is something that we’ll be bringing to you as part of this Level 3 work over time to understand what diversion looks like. And I will tell you, you know, I look back at, say, the tolling that was done on SR 520 across Lake Washington in Washington, and there’s a lot of ways it’s somewhat analogous.  We saw after tolling was imposed on SR 520 a dramatic and instantaneous drop in traffic on SR 520 and that’s very consistent with what you will see in the level three traffic and revenue analysis.  And yet, then what you see is a gradual increase in traffic going back to that route over time. What you see is that there are alternate routes to any toll facility that will see additional traffic. We saw that on the I-90 bridge, but it is not a one-to-one.

The reality, however, is that SR 520 traffic has gone down—and and stayed down—and not rebounded as the supposedly “conservative” investment grade analysis predicted.  SR 520 is carrying 40,000 fewer vehicles than before tolls were introduced 14 years ago, a four times larger decrease than predicted in the IGA.   Meanwhile, traffic on I-90 is about 20,000 vehicles per day higher than before tolling was implemented on SR 520, and the I-90 bridge carries a permanently larger fraction of cross-Lake Washington traffic that before.  Tolls clearly produced sustained diversion, in addition to causing the total volume of traffic across Lake Washington to decline by about 20,000 vehicles per day.

 

Highway 99 Tunnel

The Highway 99 Tunnel in downtown Seattle (built to replace the capacity lost due to the removal of the Alaskan Way Viaduct) cost more than $3 billion.  Originally, the project budget called for $400 million to be paid for by bonding toll revenues charged to tunnel users.  After the project started construction in 2012, WSDOT admitted it had over-estimated potential toll revenues and the amount of bonds that could be supported from toll revenues was cut in half, to just $200 million, meaning more than 90 percent of the cost of the project was paid for from other state and federal funds..  Today, WSDOT charges time varying tolls of up to $2.80 for tunnel travel.  About 50,000 vehicles per day use the tunnel.

 

In 2022:  the State Treasurer found that toll revenues were sufficient only to cover interest payments on bonds, leading the outstanding liability still more than $200 million initially borrowed.  The State Legislature bailed out the toll bonds by reallocating a portion of the settlement with construction contractors to help pay off bonds.

The IBR model is less accurate that the Investment Grade Analysis

The Investment Grade Analysis of the IBR prepared by Stantec is based on Metro’s “Kate” regional travel demand model.  A key way to check the accuracy of models is to compare their predicted levels of traffic in current years with actual data (compiled from traffic recorders).  A key part of the Stantec Investment Grade Analysis was to check Kate’s predictions against current measured traffic levels.  Stantec found that Kate seriously over-predicted existing traffic levels.  (Technically the model is “poorly calibrated.”)

Model accuracy is expressed as the “root mean squared error” which reports the average percentage error in model predictions.  The Stantec Level 2 analysis shows that the Metro Kate model is about six times less accurate than the Stantec Level 2 model.  Kate has an RMSE of 14.5 percent, the Stantec model has an RMSE of just 2.5 percent.

 

Comparison of Travel Demand Model Validation
Model (Year) Calibration Year Scope Metric Error (RMSE)
Metro/Kate (2017) 2015 32 Regional Cutlines AWDT 14.5%
Stantec/IBR Level 2 (2023) 2015 32 Regional Cutlines AWDT 2.5%
CDM Smith/CRC IGA (2013) 2010 11 Regional Cutlines Hourly 2.5%
CDM Smith/CRC IGA (2013) 2010 I5, I205 Bridges Hourly 0.8%

The IBR continues to use the poorly calibrated Metro RTDM “for planning purposes” even though it substantially over-states actual traffic on the I-5 bridge.  The Kate model is not merely less accurate:  Stantec’s work shows that the model is significantly biased: 

. . . limitations were identified in the RTDM assignment process that resulted in overestimated speeds and underestimated travel times along the I-5 and I-205 corridors near the river crossings. As such, additional refinements were performed to the base year 2015 traffic assignment to improve alignment with the observed data. These refinements were performed outside of the RTDM environment, in a base year toll model prepared using RTDM output like demand matrices, highway network, and relevant parameters.   (page 3-5.)

By overestimating speeds and underestimating travel times, the model assigns more vehicles to I-5 than are actually observed.  It seems clear that IBR prefers these higher forecasts because (a) they justify a larger project with more vehicle capacity, and (b) they create an inflated “no-build baseline” that systematically conceals or understates the travel-inducing environmental effects of the build alternative.  The Kate model is dramatically less accurate than the Stantec model—it makes no sense to trust Kate’s results, embodied in the FEIS.

“Standard Industry Practice” is to exaggerate tolled traffic and revenue

 

Washington’s experience with inflated “investment grade” traffic and revenue estimates isn’t an anomaly:  “Standard Industry Practice” is to exaggerate traffic and revenue. The problem of over-estimating traffic levels (and associated toll revenues) is endemic.  Bond rating agency Fitch issued a scathing report on toll forecast errors.  They warned that over-estimating revenue is common in the industry and is a key cause of financial problems for toll-financed projects.  The Fitch message, summarized in the trade publication, Toll Roads News, is clear and stark:

They [Fitch] call demand forecasting “a key vulnerability,” adding: “The probability of over-estimation remains high despite decades of experience with forecasting demand on transport projects. Many greenfield projects over the years across many jurisdictions have suffered from this… While other risks have been manifested in many cases, defaults on debt have largely been driven by under-performance relative to original projections.”

Investment grade forecasts also routinely suffer from optimism bias.  The consulting firms preparing these estimates have strong incentives to satisfy their clients interest to be able to justify the maximum amount of borrowing for their facilities, which leads them to over-estimate likely revenues.  Around the county dozens of toll roads and bridges have failed to produce expected revenues, leading to delinquencies, defaults, and bankruptcies.  As  international expert Robert Bain‘s comprehensive review of industry practice found:

“The standard of some traffic and revenue studies, supporting infrastructure investments worth billions of dollars, is truly appalling,” Bain said. “Forecasts are commonly used to ‘sell’ deals to potential investors, insurers or rating agencies — so they are exposed to manipulation.”

In 2010, the Oregon State Treasurer hired Bain author of “Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Forecasts: An Interpreters Guide” to assist in the financial analysis of the Columbia River Crossing.   He found numerous flaws and biase—which prompted calls for the investment grade analysis that produced dramatically different results than the highway department projects.  Specifically, Bain reviewed the CRC traffic and revenue forecasts prepared for the project’s environmental impact statement on behalf of the Oregon State Treasurer.  He found:

The traffic and revenue (T&R) reports fall short when compared with typical ‘investment grade’ traffic studies. As they stand they are not suitable for an audience focussed on detailed financial or credit analysis.

The traffic modelling activities described in the reports are confusing and much of the work now appears to be dated. Although a number of the technical approaches described appear to be reasonable, many of the modelling-related activities seem to ‘look backwards’; justifying model inputs and outputs produced some years ago.

No mention is made in the reports of historical traffic patterns in the area or volumes using the bridges. This is a strange omission. Traffic forecasts need to be placed in the context of what has happened in the past. If there is a disconnect (between the past and the future) – as appears to be the case here – a commentary should be provided which takes the reader from the past, through any transition period, to the future. No such commentary is provided in the material reviewed to date.

Traffic volumes using the I-5 Bridge have flattened-off over the last 15-20 years; well before the current recessionary period. . . . the flattening-off is a long-term traffic trend; not simply a manifestation of recent circumstances. The CAGR for the period 1999 – 2006 reduces to 0.6%

Over-predicting traffic is commonplace for toll road studies, even those done for “investment grade” forecasts. Streetsblog reported that:In 2012, the Reston (Virginia) Citizens Association completed a study [PDF] examining traffic projections provided by engineering firm Wilbur Smith (the company that did the very wrong IndianaToll Road projections, now called CDM Smith). The group collected data from 26 toll road projects on which Wilbur Smith had produced the traffic projections. During the first five years that were forecast, traffic projections overshot actual traffic every single year, and by an average of 109 percent, according to the report.  In short, investment grade toll revenue forecasts are not as wildly unrealistic as the promotional forecasts produced by state highway agencies, but they still consistently over-estimate traffic volumes and toll revenues on newly tolled-roadways. They are decidedly not unrealistic worst-case scenarios as portrayed by IBR officials. As a practical matter, the results of the IGA’s confirm that overall traffic levels will be lower, and diversion to un-tolled parallel routes (in this case I-205) will be higher than acknowledged

Appendix:  SR 520 Forecast

 

Preview: NASA updates progress towards established a Moon Base, Artemis 3 mission

NASA plans to build a planned moon base in three stages, starting with more frequent astronaut and cargo flights to the moon the develop the infrastructure needed to support long-duration crews. Image: NASA TV

Nearly two months after first unveiling its big plans to establish a Moon Base at the lunar south pole, NASA leadership is set to provide an update.

On Tuesday afternoon, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman will discuss the work that has been happening behind the scenes and the preparations being made for the first few missions supporting the Moon Base.

“These are uncrewed, robotic missions to the surface. We’re also going to talk about some announcements related to some missions that will fly later next year and in 2028, including the first rover that someday, when our astronauts get to the surface of the Moon, will get to drive around it,” Isaacman said during an appears on Fox News Tuesday morning.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage of the briefing beginning shortly before the news conference gets underway at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 UTC).

Isaacman will also be joined by Lori Glaze, associate administrator of the newly established Human Spaceflight Mission Directorate (HSMD), and Carlos García-Galán, the Moon Base program manager, which is now under HSMD.

This past Friday, NASA announced a new mission directorate realignment, which unveiled not only HSMD, but also the Research and Technology Mission Directorate (RTMD). The agency did not alter the Science Mission Directorate (SMD).

“NASA will integrate the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate and Space Technology Mission Directorate into the new RTMD,” the agency wrote in a press release. “As a combined research, space technology, and aeronautics organization charged with nuclear power and propulsion development, RTMD will ensure NASA has the capabilities needed for the mission of today and the future.”

HSMD encompasses the former Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate and the Space Operations Mission Directorate.

Quarantine sentences to ponder, that was then this is now edition…

Trump administration officials, confronted by overlapping outbreaks of Ebola and the hantavirus, have taken a more aggressive approach to locking down potentially exposed people than in past outbreaks, surprising many public health experts…

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, drew notice during the Covid-19 pandemic for suggesting that the coronavirus should be allowed to spread freely among healthy people, and for arguing that mandatory quarantines and lockdowns were harmful to society.

Last week, however, he issued quarantine orders that cited public health laws for two passengers who wanted to leave the Nebraska facility and isolate in their home states.

Here is the full NYT story.  Via Maxwell G.

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Tuesday assorted links

1. How did the United States bend the health care cost curve?

2. Why are you reading fewer books?

3. Dean Ball on the Papal encyclical.  My interpretation is a little different, and I suppose more Straussian.  The Pope is basically telling us that AI is here to stay.  If the detailed analysis seems thin to you, there is no need to distract from that more important and more essential message.  That the Pope presented this with Anthropic, and for that matter quoted Tolkien/Gandalf, and allowed the use of em dashes, does not harm my interpretation.  And here is what Perplexity thought I would say.

4. Mennonite fact of the day.

5. A one-time treatment for bad cholesterol? (NYT)  And a Twitter thread.

6. Those new service sector jobs?

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The Best Backyard Ideas For an Enjoyable Stay

Many people used to think of their homes mainly as places to rest between busy schedules, social plans, restaurants, vacations, and nights out. Over the last several years, however, outdoor living spaces have started taking on a much bigger role in everyday life. Backyards, patios, and outdoor entertainment areas are increasingly designed to feel less like occasional-use spaces and more like genuine extensions of the home itself.

This shift has changed the kinds of upgrades homeowners prioritize. Instead of focusing only on appearance, people now pay far more attention to comfort, usability, atmosphere, and long-term enjoyment. Features that support slower evenings, outdoor dining, wellness routines, and relaxed social gatherings often end up being used much more consistently than expected.

Over time, many homeowners realize that certain outdoor upgrades quietly make staying home feel easier, calmer, and more enjoyable than constantly going out.

Outdoor Wellness Spaces Change the Entire Atmosphere

One of the biggest changes in modern outdoor design is the growing focus on wellness and recovery. Homeowners increasingly want outdoor spaces that help them mentally disconnect from stress instead of simply creating visually impressive backyards.

This explains why heat therapy spaces, quiet seating areas, and privacy-focused layouts have become so popular. Homeowners investing in luxury outdoor sauna  setups often discover that these spaces quickly become part of regular evening routines rather than occasional luxury features.

The appeal usually comes from how naturally these environments support relaxation. Instead of planning complicated outings or dealing with crowded public spaces, people can step outside for a calmer experience without leaving home entirely.

As outdoor wellness areas become integrated into everyday life, many homeowners start viewing their backyards less as entertainment zones and more as personal recovery spaces.

Outdoor Cooking Creates More Relaxed Social Gatherings

Backyard hosting also tends to feel very different when cooking becomes part of the experience itself. Outdoor meals often create slower and more casual environments than traditional indoor gatherings because people naturally spend more time moving around, talking, and relaxing outdoors.

Cooking outside changes the rhythm of social events. Guests gather around grills, outdoor kitchens, prep stations, and seating areas more organically than they do during many formal indoor dinners. The atmosphere usually feels less rushed and less structured.

This is one reason outdoor cooking upgrades remain so popular among homeowners who enjoy hosting regularly. Equipment, maintenance tools, and supply for barbeque  naturally fit into these outdoor-centered lifestyles where grilling and open-air dining become recurring parts of weekends and evening routines.

People often end up using these outdoor spaces far more frequently than expected once hosting begins feeling easier and more comfortable at home.

Comfortable Outdoor Layouts Encourage Longer Evenings

Photograph illustrating this sponsored article

Many outdoor spaces fail not because they look bad, but because they are uncomfortable to spend time in for extended periods. Seating, airflow, lighting, shade, and spacing all dramatically affect whether guests actually want to stay outdoors for hours.

This is why functional comfort often matters more than highly decorative design choices. Softer lighting, durable seating, covered areas, and flexible layouts tend to encourage more relaxed gatherings than spaces designed mainly around appearance.

Homeowners also begin appreciating outdoor environments that adapt well to different situations. A backyard that works equally well for quiet evenings, small family dinners, or larger social gatherings usually provides more long-term value than spaces built around only one type of use.

The easier a space feels to enjoy casually, the more consistently it usually becomes part of everyday life.

Staying Home Starts Feeling Less Restrictive

One interesting shift many people notice after upgrading outdoor spaces is that staying home begins feeling far less limiting. Comfortable patios, outdoor dining areas, wellness features, and relaxing backyard environments can dramatically change how people think about free time.

Instead of automatically looking for restaurants, crowded venues, or expensive outings every weekend, many individuals begin enjoying slower evenings at home more often. Outdoor spaces provide a balance between social activity and personal comfort that many public environments struggle to offer consistently.

This becomes especially valuable during stressful or busy periods where people still want enjoyable experiences without dealing with traffic, reservations, noise, or overstimulating environments.

The emotional effect of having comfortable outdoor space available at any time often becomes much more important than homeowners initially expect.

Simpler Outdoor Features Usually Get Used Most

One common mistake in outdoor design is assuming that larger or more expensive additions automatically create better experiences. In reality, many homeowners end up using simpler comfort-focused features far more consistently than dramatic statement pieces.

Comfortable seating, manageable cooking setups, quiet wellness areas, shaded patios, and practical lighting often shape daily enjoyment more strongly than oversized or highly decorative installations. Features that fit naturally into ordinary routines generally remain valuable much longer.

The same principle applies to hosting. Outdoor spaces that are easy to clean, easy to maintain, and comfortable during different weather conditions tend to encourage spontaneous gatherings much more often than complicated layouts requiring extensive preparation.

The less stressful outdoor hosting feels, the more frequently people usually invite others over.

Outdoor Comfort Has Become Part of Modern Home Life

As people spend more time balancing demanding schedules, digital overstimulation, and crowded routines, outdoor comfort increasingly feels tied to emotional recovery rather than luxury alone. Homeowners are no longer designing backyards only for appearances or occasional entertaining. Many now want spaces that genuinely improve everyday life.

This explains why outdoor wellness, casual dining, and relaxation-focused upgrades continue growing in popularity. The ability to unwind outside, host comfortably, cook casually, or disconnect from indoor stress without leaving home often provides lasting value long after the excitement of installation fades.

In many cases, the most appreciated outdoor upgrades are not the most extravagant ones, but the ones that quietly make ordinary evenings feel calmer, easier, and more enjoyable week after week.

Photo: Tran Vinh on Unsplash


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Why Your Business Needs Austin Bookkeeping Services

Bookkeeping services represent the process of financial management with precise organization and registration of all financial transactions of a business. It is an essential component when it comes to maintaining a clear image of the cash flow, profitability and overall financial health. Without bookkeepers, proper recordkeeping companies risk costly errors, tax problems and decisions based on incomplete information which might affect the business’s growth.  The local companies from Austin have to keep up with the regulations but also with the quick pace of development which an experienced bookkeeper can do by providing strategic support and financial clarity. These services are ideal for small businesses, startups and also freelancers who want to save time, reduce stress and focus on growing the business without worrying about the financial part.

What Are Austin Bookkeeping Services?

The Austin bookkeeping services represent the process of recording, organizing, and managing all of a business’s financial transactions. The main role of a bookkeeper is to maintain clear and up-to-date records so that you as the business owner have an accurate picture of your financial situation. These services are essential for any business in order for it to properly function, regardless of its size or field, because it underpins tax compliance and financial decisions.  

Even though many people think that a bookkeeper and an accountant are the same thing, they have big differences between their roles. The bookkeeping focuses on the daily recording of transactions while accounting involves the analysis, interpretation and reporting of financial data as well as tax planning. Therefore, a bookkeeper has a fundamental role and the accountant builds essential aspects based on the other’s job.

The bookkeeping services usually include a wide range of activities such as recording transactions and documenting all income and expenses, as well as bank reconciliation which basically ensures consistency between internal records and bank statements. Also invoice management is one of their activities which involves issuing and tracking invoices as well as managing payments. Besides, financial reporting provides essential documents such as the balance sheet and profit and loss account that help evaluate business performance and can also support its growth in some ways.

Coursera  also mentions ‘ Bookkeeping is the systematic process of recording, organizing, and tracking all financial transactions of a business, including sales, purchases, payments, and receipts, to maintain accurate and up-to-date financial records that support business operations, tax reporting, and decision-making. While bookkeepers used to keep track of this information in physical books, much of the process is now done using software.

Why Should You Hire Austin Bookkeepers?

If you have a local business, choosing Austin bookkeepers  can bring a lot of advantages for any business regardless of its field and industry. One of the most important benefits is their knowledge of the specifics of Texas law, as well as tax regulations and any other financial requirements that can vary from state to state. Also, a local professional is already familiar with these aspects therefore reducing the risk of errors and penalties. Besides, they can provide advice suitable to the economic environment of Austin which everybody knows is a city known for its entrepreneurial dynamism.

Woman at desk.
Photo via Magnific

Another major advantage is access to personalized services. Unlike the general and automated services, a local bookkeeper can better understand the specific needs of a business therefore coming up with different solutions suitable for them. The best part in choosing to hire or to collaborate with a local bookkeeper is that you do not have to pay for a standard pack of services, you can only pay for what you need. Whether it is about cash flow management, cost optimization or financial document organization services can be personalized based on industry, company size and long-term goals.

Also, Texas is an important hub for small businesses and startups and a bookkeeper in the area has direct experience working with such companies. This means that a local bookkeeper can offer you relevant support in growing your business by organizing everything that is financial. In a competitive market like this one, collaboration with a professional can make a huge difference in maintaining a solid financial base.

QuickBooks  also mentions ‘ Bookkeepers help businesses manage their finances by monitoring different accounts, transactions, and reports. They collect, organize, and store the business’s financial records, including reconciliation, income, and cash flow statements. Bookkeepers also make it possible for business owners and accountants to build budgets, identify trends, and plan for the future.

How to Choose the Best Bookkeeper?

Well, there is no such thing as the best bookkeeper, but you can select the best bookkeeper for your business and this is a decision that can directly influence the financial health of your business. First, it is essential to check a bookkeeper’s certifications and professional experience. A qualified and certified bookkeeper who has relevant experience in this field will better understand the specific needs of the company and will manage the complex financial situations more efficiently.  

Another important criterion is represented by the reviews of other clients. The feedback from other clients can offer you a clear image of the level of professionalism, communication and reliability. Online platforms or direct recommendations from other local entrepreneurs can be extremely helpful in the selection process.

Woman at desk on calculator
Photo via Magnific

A professional is also careful with what technology they use because a modern bookkeeper should always be up-to-date and familiar with popular programs such as QuickBooks or Xero which allow the efficient and transparent monitorization of financial data. By using these programs that are strong financial tools you will have easier and quicker access to reports and can also reduce error risks.

Conclusion

Therefore, the bookkeepers play an important role in a company because they efficiently manage the finances offering clarity, control and support in making decisions. Working with a professional and local bookkeeper helps you avoid errors and comply with tax obligations. Choosing the right partner that is most suitable for your company, with experience and transparency, can significantly contribute to the long-term stability and development of your business.

Photo at top via Magnific


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SpaceX launches 24 Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg SFB

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base on the Starlink 17-37 mission on May 26, 2026. Image: SpaceX

Update May 26, 12:21 p.m. EDT (1621 UTC) SpaceX confirms deployment of its 24 Starlink satellites.

SpaceX followed up a picturesque Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral Monday morning with another from Vandenberg Space Force Base Tuesday morning.

The Starlink 17-37 mission, which was originally scheduled to launch on May 9, faced several launch delays throughout the month of May. The flight went through two previous booster assignments (B1097 and B1103) before SpaceX ultimately designated B1100 to fly the mission.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East happened at 7:50:34 a.m. PDT (10:50:34 a.m. EDT / 1450:34 UTC). The Falcon 9 rocket flew on a southerly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

The Starlink 17-37 mission was the sixth flight for B1100. It previously flew the NROL-105 mission as well as four batches of Starlink satellites.

Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1100 landed on the drone ship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You,’ positioned out in the Pacific Ocean. This was the 198th landing on this vessel and the 615th booster landing to date for SpaceX.

Another late-spring cut-off to bring mountain showers, coastal drizzle, and cooler temperatures before likely June warm-up

A dynamic and changeable spring 2026 weather pattern in California amid ongoing marine heatwave As we approach the end of May, it’s worth looking back at the past couple of months of highly changeable weather conditions across California and the West. Spring is always, to some degree, a tumultuous weather period, as it heralds the […]

The post Another late-spring cut-off to bring mountain showers, coastal drizzle, and cooler temperatures before likely June warm-up first appeared on Weather West.

Remind Me. Why Cuba?

I’ve Lost the Rationale for Why We’re Doing What We’re Doing

Cuba? My first reaction when recent news brought this up was, “Um, okay, yes, communist government, oppressed people, past possible attacks on the U.S.” But to consider each of those: Communism? There isn’t much left of it in the world. Out of the three or four still claiming it there is China which is primarily a typical single-top-leader with a mix of some central planning and programs with a significant amount of free-market. There is North Korea which is a dictatorship. Even if you could describe Cuba as truly communist, so what? It’s not going to be leading a wave of other countries becoming communist. What do we care what form they take?

Oppressed people? That’s also true in countries all over the world that we don’t seem to care about. Even further, Viktor Orban in Hungary was transitioning the country to an oppressive authoritarian system and we supported him. Is it because Cuba is in our Western hemisphere? So is Peru where President Bukele is leading a harsh authoritarian rule, but we’re making deals with him to take the immigration rejects (to put it in terms that fit Trump’s attitude) that Trump wants to get rid of. And much of what the Cuban people suffer is simple poverty which the U.S. has played a big role in creating. We’ve had embargoes of varying degrees imposed on them since 1960, and of course much worse now since Trump has almost cut off their ability to import oil.

Attacks? They go both ways. The one that has just been refreshed after having long been dropped is a Cuban attack that shot down two U.S. planes over open water that killed four people. That was thirty years ago. A U.S. indictment of Raul Castro for that was just announced. Okay, if we can get Mr. Castro here, in his nineties, and try him, that might be justice. Does that require invading and capturing or killing other leadership in some hope of radical change? That didn’t work in Iran. The new leadership there is worse than the old, and the people didn’t rise up. The people of Cuba have had most of seven decades to rise up, so counting on that now seems unwise.

Attacks did go both ways. The worst was the bombing of a Cuban domestic flight killing 73 people, carried out by anti-communist exiles with connections to the U.S. The CIA later acknowledged knowing about it in advance, and the exiles have pretty much lived freely in the U.S. afterward.

If Trump invades and does…something, maybe insists they give the U.S. control of their sugar industry, does that make him look good? The strongest country in the world forcing one of the weakest to grant some concessions? Wow, what an accomplishment?

I thought with reading fresh material about the country and thinking through the situation and in writing this I’d have the reasons become clear. Other than the cynical assumption that it’s just for Trump, nope, no reason is clear. I end where I started.

So remind me again, why Cuba?

Photo: David Pospíšil, Pexels


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The Ig Nobel Prize Ceremony Is Moving to Europe (after 35 years in the USA)

A sign of the times:( 

 The Ig Nobel Prize Ceremony Is Moving to Europe (after 35 years in the USA) 

 

 

 

"Ig Nobel Prizes honor achievements that make people LAUGH, and then THINK. Organized by the magazine Annals of Improbable Research (AIR), they celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative, and spur interest in science. Winners travel to the ceremony from around the world, to collect their prizes and be showered with paper airplanes. The first 35 ceremonies (1991-2025) all took place in Massachusetts: at Harvard University, MIT [The Massachusetts Institute of Technology], and Boston University. But now the ceremony is moving to Europe.

"Marc Abrahams, founder and emcee of the ceremony (and editor of the magazine), explains: “During the past year, it has become unsafe for our guests to visit the country. We cannot in good conscience ask the new winners, or the international journalists who cover the event, to travel to the USA this year.”

This year’s ceremony is being produced in collaboration with institutions of the ETH Domain and the University of Zurich. Abrahams explains: “The city of Zurich and its institutions rapidly moved mountains (only metaphorically — in Switzerland it is illegal to physically move mountains) and committed to make this possible. Switzerland has nurtured many unexpected good things —Albert Einstein’s physics, the world economy, and the cuckoo clock leap to mind — and is again helping the world appreciate improbable people and ideas.”

 



The History of ‘OK’

Merriam-Webster:

The 1820s and 1830s shared another linguistic fad with today: an appreciation for deliberate misspellings. (Kewl, rite?) This trend, which had humorists adopting now-cringey bumpkin personas with ignorance manifested in uneducated spellings, turned no go into know go and no use into know yuse (lol). Abbreviations were not immune, and no go became K.G.. So too all right became O.W., as an abbreviation for oll wright. And all correct became o.k., as an abbreviation for oll korrect.

Although OK became one of the more commonly used initialisms, it might have passed into oblivion when the linguistic fad had passed if not for the presidential election of 1840, when Martin Van Buren was given the nickname of “Old Kinderhook” because of his hometown of Kinderhook, NY. The Van Buren stans who joined “OK Clubs” nationwide were themselves, they proclaimed, “OK.” Their campaign was memorable enough to have both popularized the word and to have hijacked the story of its origin: there are today still those who believe that “Old Kinderhook” is the original meaning of OK.

I have a strong preference for OK (perhaps infused by the classic Macintosh Human Interface Guidelines’s adamance on the spelling). Okay is OK in prose, but never as a UI button label. Ok and ok are not OK.

 ★ 

A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

My latest paper, A Test of the Coase Conjecture Using Prices of Electronic Books, with the excellent Tim Groseclose, has just been published. The Coase Conjecture is another one of Coase’s little ideas — the original paper is six pages — that has spawned hundreds of follow-up papers and thousands of citations.

The idea is simple. A monopolist of a durable good has a time-inconsistency problem. Set the monopoly price in period 1 and he will be tempted in period 2 to cut the price and mop up the customers whose valuations sit between the period-1 price and MC. But the same logic applies in period 2, and again in period 3, and so on — eventually the price unravels to MC. Consumers see this coming, the monopolist knows the consumers see it coming, and so the monopolist cuts price to MC in period 1. And since a “period” is just the interval between price changes, the whole unraveling happens — in Coase’s phrase — “in the twinkling of an eye.”

The theorists, most notably Gul, Sonnenschein and Wilson and Fudenberg, Levine and Tirole, formalized Coase’s insight and showed that under quite general conditions the logic goes through. Which is rather surprising, since, as Tim and I point out, Coase’s conjecture implies that many patents and copyrights are essentially worthless — a prediction wildly at variance with the facts. Other theorists, including Stokey, Ausubel and Deneckere, and Board and Pycia, have offered variants under which the Coase outcome does and does not obtain.

For all this theory, there have been almost no direct tests of the Coase Conjecture apart from a handful of lab experiments. Ours is one of the first papers to take the conjecture to the real world. We look at e-books, an unusually clean setting: digital goods are durable, marginal costs are low, resale is limited, and prices can be changed quickly. Using the prices of e-books that are in the public domain as a proxy for marginal cost, we ask: (a) do prices rapidly fall to MC, and (b) does the market clear in the first period? The answer to both is no. E-book prices begin well above MC, sales continue over many periods, and prices don’t even decline monotonically.

We reject the Coase Conjecture decisively.

The paper has an interesting history. The theorists (or the referees we guessed were theorists) praised the paper for taking the theory seriously but inevitably had a fillip to offer, distinguishing the world of pure theory from empirical tests. The empiricists, on the other hand, said our tests were too simple since no one takes the theory that seriously. It’s good to see the paper find a home!

We reject the Coase Conjecture decisively, but it remains to say why. We can rule out some explanations — it’s not rising MC, and it’s not the finiteness of buyers (which can support a perfectly price-discriminating Pac-Man equilibrium).

Two theories remain: 1) sellers can commit not to lower prices, and 2) the outside-options model of Board and Pycia. I prefer the former, my co-author prefers the latter. To me, commitment just isn’t that hard. The standard story is that profits are like cookies on the table and the monopolist can’t resist — but at least the people tempted by cookies get to eat the cookies! The Coase profits are illusory: the monopolist races to MC in period 1 precisely because they know they won’t resist later and as a result they don’t even get a taste of profit! Too clever by half. I say, show some backbone. Firms are *all about* commitment — to workers, consumers, contractors. Why not to a price? My co-author points out, however, that this is more Tabarrok-vibe than carefully laid out theory.

Tim likes the Board and Pycia model which begins with the plausible idea that consumers have outside options — if they don’t buy the book today, they will buy another book, rent the movie, or borrow from the library — and crucially, once they take the outside option, the consumer never returns to the market. You might think outside options would make it *harder* for the firm to set a high price, but Board and Pycia show in a very clever but extended argument that when you carefully work out the full equilibrium the opposite holds: outside options give firms a time-consistent incentive to set and keep a high price. Tim explains the argument further here (see also our paper for an intuitive breakdown).

In any case, the Coase Conjecture — at least as modelled by the theorists — fails in an environment most conducive to it.

A beautiful theory falls to ugly data.

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 ★ 

Awarding Jay Haynes His Being Right Points for Predicting Apple Hitting $3 Trillion in Market Cap

Here’s a fun one. Back in 2014 I linked to a post by Jay Haynes in which he projected that with a very reasonable level of annual growth, Apple ought to reach a $3 trillion market cap within 10 years. At the time of his writing, Apple’s market cap was “just” $450 billion, and no company had hit the $1 trillion market. So projecting a $3 trillion valuation in 10 years was a bold prediction.

Apple hit $3 trillion in just 8 years.

Haynes’s original blog went belly-up, alas, but he republished the piece on Medium, with a bit of additional commentary up front, in 2016. Re-reading Haynes’s piece today, it holds up extremely well, including his case that the iPhone and iPad are almost textbook examples of Clayton Christensen’s disruption theory (yet Christensen himself got it wrong).

(Thanks to Nathan Peretic, longtime DF reader and owner of a perfect personal homepage, for prompting me to revisit this and award Haynes his well-earned Being Right Points.)

 ★ 

Thieves Are Texting Threats to Victims of iPhone Theft in London

Lizzie Dearden and Amelia Nierenberg, reporting for The New York Times (gift link):

The crime Alex Pikula reported to the police was one they had heard before: An e-bike rider had zoomed past as Mr. Pikula left a theater in London’s West End, ripping his phone from his hands. It was frustrating, Mr. Pikula thought, but that was that.

He was wrong.

His mother soon started receiving strange texts, claiming to have her son’s emails and bank information. Then she received a video of a man brandishing a gun. Then came threats of sexual assault and death.

“I know who you are and where you live,” read one, full of obscenities and typos. “I’ve killed or [sic] far less than a phone before,” it went on. “We will see if you value your life over this phone.”

All of the messages wanted her to do one thing: unlink her son’s Apple ID from his stolen phone.

The story only mentions the word iPhone twice, but phone appears over 30 times. “Apple ID” appears four times. There’s zero mention of Android or Google. It’s just implicitly assumed that the only phones worth stealing or threatening victims about are iPhones. The story makes no mention of Apple’s Stolen Device Protection, which Apple recently began turning on by default when users install iOS 26.4.

Dearden and Nierenberg filed a previous report in October about organized iPhone crime rings in London. And in November I linked to a story where a thief, after stealing an Android phone, turned around and handed it back, explaining to the victim, “Don’t want no Samsung.”

 ★ 

Trump Mobile Website Exposed the Number of Pre-Orders — Both Completed and Abandoned — and the Associated Customer Information

Catie McLeod, The Guardian:

Trump Mobile said in a statement that it was investigating the issue — “with the assistance of independent cybersecurity professionals” — in which the full names, addresses and phone numbers of people who filled out preorder forms appeared to be exposed. [...]

Jonathan Soma, a programmer and professor at New York’s Columbia University, reviewed the code that the Australian had uncovered and copied from the Trump Mobile website. Soma said the website used a common e-commerce model, in which every potential order added another “1” to a list, the total of which had reached 27,224 possible pre-orders on the available information.

But he said the code reflected the last step before payment, meaning those who didn’t proceed with the purchase were also recorded in the data, even those people who have abandoned their carts without paying the deposit, so the true number of preorders was likely to be even lower.

“I probably started three phone purchases and didn’t buy any of them,” he said.

Auric Goldfinger is surely rolling over in his grave.

 ★ 

Joe Kerr believes in ordinary people doing extraordinary things

Joe Kerr, a Democratic candidate in the CA-40 congressional race, was offered the opportunity to write a piece following the recent guest posts from Lisa Ramirez and Esther Kim Varet.

Congress doesn’t have a messaging problem. It has a seriousness problem.

Too many politicians today are focused on building personal brands, feeding outrage, chasing clicks, or treating every issue like a cable news argument. Meanwhile, regular people are just trying to hold their lives together.

They’re trying to afford groceries and rent. They’re trying to keep up with healthcare costs and insurance bills. They’re worrying about retirement, raising children, caring for aging parents, and wondering whether their kids will be able to afford a future in the communities where they grew up.

And increasingly, people feel like the system’s working for everyone except them. They’re not imagining it. People are tired. Not weak. Not apathetic. Tired. Tired of division. Tired of chaos. Tired of politics that feels more like a performance than a profession rooted in service.

I spent my career working with people who didn’t have the luxury of treating serious problems like a game. I saw families lose homes, communities devastated by wildfires, and people living through some of the worst moments of their lives.

Experiences like that shape how you view leadership and responsibility. You learn very quickly that ego, performative outrage, and political gamesmanship are luxuries most ordinary people can’t afford. Because when people are living through real crises, they aren’t looking for the loudest person in the room. They’re looking for someone steady. Someone willing to walk into difficult situations, keep people calm, and focus on solving problems instead of feeding chaos.

But my experience was not limited to the fire service alone.

For nearly two decades, I also served as a labor leader representing not only firefighters and paramedics, but over 270,000 workers from all walks of life through the Orange County Labor Federation. Teachers. Healthcare workers. Electricians. Grocery workers. Ironworkers. Painters. Construction workers. Public employees. Service workers. Hardworking people trying to build stable lives for their families in an economy that too often feels stacked against them. That experience gave me a much broader understanding of the pressures ordinary Americans are facing every day.

Sitting across the bargaining table from politicians, corporations, and bureaucracies fighting for fair wages, healthcare, retirement security, workplace protections, and resources for public safety, quickly teaches you how to remove yourself from viewing every issue through a partisan lens.

Over the years, I’ve helped negotiate over 200 pieces of bipartisan legislation and secured over $2.3 billion in funding for critical public services, infrastructure, wildfire prevention, and climate resilience, while also holding major polluters accountable and fighting for workers and communities too often ignored by those in power. This work taught me that solving real problems requires persistence, trust, relationships, and a willingness to work with people you may not agree with on every issue. Because when hospitals are overwhelmed, when communities face wildfire threats, or when working families are struggling to stay afloat, ideological purity matters a lot less than whether somebody’s actually willing to do the work. That doesn’t mean abandoning principles. It means remembering that governing is supposed to produce results for real people. It’s the part that actually improves people’s lives, and it’s the part too much of our politics has lost sight of.

This district is filled with hardworking people who’ve been carrying the weight of an economy and political system that increasingly feels disconnected from everyday life. Families across CA-40 are dealing with rising housing costs, disappearing fire insurance, healthcare insecurity, economic pressure, traffic, overcrowding, and a growing sense that life’s getting harder despite working just as hard as ever.

At the same time, our politics has become increasingly extreme. Every disagreement becomes a war. Every compromise becomes betrayal. Every issue becomes another opportunity for outrage and fundraising.

I still believe most Americans have far more in common than our politics would have us believe. Most people want safe communities. Economic stability. Affordable healthcare. Good schools. Clean air and water. A functioning democracy. And leaders who are honest with them.

That shouldn’t feel like a radical idea.

Over the course of my career, I’ve seen ordinary people do extraordinary things for complete strangers. I’ve seen neighbors pull each other from burning homes. I’ve watched communities come together after disasters. I’ve watched exhausted first responders continue working long after their bodies wanted to quit because someone needed help.

That’s the America I know. Not the one constantly screaming at itself online. The one where people still show up for each other when it matters most. That spirit still exists. But people are hungry for leaders who reflect it. Not louder politicians. Not outrage merchants. Not people trying to become celebrities. Just grounded, capable people willing to serve something bigger than themselves.

I’m proud that so many respected leaders across California have chosen to support this campaign: members of Congress, state legislators, labor leaders, local officials, educators, environmental advocates, and community leaders who’ve worked alongside me over the years.

And I’m especially encouraged by the number of young people becoming involved in this campaign. My wife and I raised our 22-year old son here in CA-40, and like so many families, we’ve had countless conversations about affordability, housing, career opportunities, and whether the next generation will be able to build the same kind of stable future previous generations once could. Young people aren’t looking for perfection. They’re looking for honesty, seriousness, and leaders who actually understand the challenges they’re inheriting.

That’s the kind of leadership I’ve tried to live throughout my life, and it’s the kind of representative I would strive to be for CA-40. Because public service should never be about feeding ego. It should be about showing up for other people when they need you most.

I believe most Americans are far better than our politics sometimes reflects. But democracy only works when people participate, and that’s why voting is so important.

If you believe Congress needs more seriousness, more real-world experience, and leadership grounded in service to others, I’d be honored to earn your support and your vote.

Joe Kerr is a Democratic candidate in the CA-40 congressional race.

May 25, 2026

Last Friday, just before the long holiday weekend, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard resigned, effective as of June 30, citing her husband’s recent cancer diagnosis as the factor that forced her decision. A source told Jonathan Landay and Erin Blanco of Reuters that President Donald J. Trump had forced her out. Certainly, he has sidelined her.

Congress created the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in 2004 after concluding that intelligence failures, including a lack of communication across agencies, had contributed to the vulnerability that permitted the 9/11 attacks. The ODNI is supposed to oversee the eighteen different intelligence agencies and to coordinate the information they produce.

Gabbard did not have deep experience in intelligence and had endorsed Russian talking points about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when Trump named her director of ODNI. Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton called her “a hand grenade ready to explode.”

Gabbard ran into trouble with Trump by June 2025, when she released a video warning of “nuclear holocaust” because “political elite warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers.” They were bringing the world “closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before,” she said. She released the video days before Trump launched his first attack on Iran, and a former intelligence officer told Nick Schifrin of PBS that Trump considered the video an attempt to try to convince him not to launch the strikes.

Afterward, Gabbard seemed to try to regain Trump’s favor by backing his extremist pet projects, including accusing former president Barack Obama of leading a “treasonous conspiracy” and calling for him to be prosecuted over the FBI’s investigation of the ties between Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign and Russian operatives. She also oversaw an FBI raid at the Fulton County, Georgia, election headquarters during which the administration scooped up all the physical ballots from the 2020 presidential election, as well as ballot images, tabulator tapes, and the voter rolls from that election.

But she never recovered her standing with the president. As Shane Harris noted in The Atlantic, while Trump was preparing to invade Venezuela and extract its president and his wife, Gabbard was posting pictures of herself on a Hawaiian beach.

Trump stayed in the White House over the weekend, missing his son Don Jr.’s wedding in the Bahamas with a social media post explaining that “[w]hile I very much wanted to be with my son, Don Jr., and the newest member of the Trump Family, his soon to be wife, Bettina, circumstances pertaining to Government, and my love for the United States of America, do not allow me to do so. I feel it is important for me to remain in Washington, D.C., at the White House during this important period of time.”

Whatever else might be going on, Trump is under pressure to find a way out of Iran. Not only are prices skyrocketing owing to the rising cost of oil after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz in response to attacks from the U.S. and Israel, but the clock has run out on any authorization he could have claimed for his military adventure in Iran, and Congress seems ready to force his hand.

Congress alone can declare war, but the 1973 War Powers Act permits the president to act against an “imminent” threat so long as he notifies Congress within 48 hours. Then he has 60 days to get congressional approval. That timeline ran out on May 1, and the administration claimed it didn’t need authorization because it had declared a ceasefire on April 7, although it continued to maintain a blockade against Iranian ports—an act of war—and to exchange fire with Iranian forces. Republicans in Congress appeared to accept that argument for a time. But last Thursday, House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had to send representatives home a day early to keep members from passing a war powers resolution that would order Trump to remove U.S. troops from his war on Iran.

The House and Senate will come back on June 2, and Trump clearly would like to have an agreement with Iran in place before they do.

Trump’s social media account over the weekend was active. He twice posted an image of himself leering over Greenland with the caption “Hello, Greenland!” and repeated suggestions that “China Loves Trump.” He posted an AI image of Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA) as a devil (I think), calling him a “SLEAZEBAG” and a “Dumocrat,” and an image of eight lawmakers or officials in orange jumpsuits (except for Obama’s tan one), claiming they had “Caused tremendous damage through Weaponization!” And he posted a number of images of colorful fountains.

But much of the account’s attention this weekend was on Iran. On Saturday morning the account posted an image of Iran covered by a U.S. flag, and at 4:30 that afternoon, it posted that Trump had just had a call with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, and then a separate call with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, about Iran. All the calls “went very well,” according to the post.

“An Agreement has been largely negotiated,” the post read, “subject to finalization…. Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the Agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”

But Iran’s state media immediately posted that Trump’s claim that the strait would reopen as it was before the war was “not true,” adding that “it should be noted that American officials have acknowledged in multiple messages to Iran that Trump’s tweets are primarily for promotional purposes and media consumption within the United States, and they have recommended that no attention be paid to these statements.”

Firm details about the deal were scarce, but as journalist David Schuster posted, Al-Jazeera reported that the deal included “unfreezing billions in Iranian funds, lifting U.S. blockade, pulling U.S. forces away, reopening strait of Hormuz though with tolls to Iran, and allowing Iran to keep its enriched uranium.” “This would be a total U.S. surrender,” Schuster noted. Iran’s military spokesperson Ibrahim al-Fiqar posted an AI image of Trump kneeling before Iran’s supreme leader with the caption “The end.”

Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, immediately condemned the deal. He told reporters it “would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught.” Wicker urged Trump to “allow America’s skilled armed forces to finish the destruction of Iran’s conventional military capabilities and reopen the strait. Further pursuit of an agreement with Iran’s Islamist regime risks a perception of weakness. We must finish what we started. It is past time for action.”

By Sunday morning Trump was, once again, posting AI images of U.S. bombers attacking Iranian ships (complete with bodies flying through the air) and insisting that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated between the U.S., China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Iran during the Obama administration was “[o]ne of the worst deals ever made by our Country.” Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium significantly and allow inspections, in exchange for relief from some sanctions. The Strait of Hormuz remained open. Although inspectors said Iran was honoring the deal, Trump took the U.S. out of the JCPOA in 2018, and the following year, Iran resumed work on enriched uranium necessary for a nuclear weapon.

Trump added that he expected Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, to join the Abraham Accords, the deal hammered out during Trump’s first term under which the UAE and Bahrain formally recognized Israel. According to Barak Ravid of Axios, Arab leaders met Trump’s suggestion of such a recognition during the Saturday phone call with silence.

Then his account posted: “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon. Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about. Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals!”

This morning, Trump’s account posted: “I laugh at all of the Dumocrats, RINOS, and Fools who know nothing about the potential deal I am making with Iran, things that haven’t even been negotiated yet.” “[T]hey are losers! The deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal. It will be the exact opposite of the JCPOA disaster negotiated by the failed Obama Administration, which was a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran. No, I don’t do deals like that!”

Meanwhile, on Meet the Press Sunday, Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY), who last week lost the primary for reelection to his seat after Trump backed his opponent and Trump supporters threw a gobsmacking $35 million at the contest, reopened fire from a different direction. Massie has been key to demanding the release of the Epstein files, and the administration continues to ignore the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which required the Department of Justice to release all the files no later than December 19, 2025.

When host Kristen Welker, noting that Massie had named names from the files in the past, asked, “Can we expect you to name more names in the coming weeks and months?” Massie answered: “Yes.”

Notes:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/gabbard-resigns-trumps-national-intelligence-director-fox-news-digital-reports-2026-05-22/

https://apnews.com/article/gabbard-trump-putin-intelligence-russia-syria-a798adaf9cd531a5d0c9329f7597f0f6

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/10/tulsi-gabbard-nuclear-weapons-00396586

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/tulsi-gabbards-record-and-impact-on-the-u-s-intelligence-community

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/gabbards-unprecedented-claim-president-led-treasonous-conspiracy-rcna217151

https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/05/tulsi-gabbard-resigns-odni-trump/687280/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/18/tulsi-gabbard-obama-2016-election-russia

https://www.mississippifreepress.org/trumps-iran-agreement-would-be-a-disaster-says-roger-wicker-a-top-republican-u-s-senator/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/world/middleeast/five-main-issues-iran-israel-nuclear.html

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/25/world/iran-war-trump

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/trump-iran-war-israel-muslim-countries-abraham-accords

https://armscontrolcenter.org/the-iran-deal-then-and-now/

https://www.newsweek.com/thomas-massie-promises-to-expose-more-names-from-epstein-files-11989729

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insight/record-35m-battle-tests-massie-ahead-of-kentucky-primary/gm-GMB6071BD4

X:

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trumpstruth.org:

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Blueksy:

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Donald Trump’s Ego-Driven “Excursion” Has Crashed Into Reality

“Many questions, few details in latest Iran peace proposal,” read the headline on a New York Times report Sunday. As the subhead explained, “It is too early to tell what exactly Trump and Iran have agreed to, or if they have agreed to much at all.” The article, by the way, was written by David Sanger, who Trump called “treasonous” over his clearly accurate reporting on how badly the war was going.

But, in fact, Trump’s Iran war may be over, or virtually over. America lost.

Iran may or may not agree to exercise restraint in its control over the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program. But as Donald Trump of all people should know, agreements can be broken. At a fundamental level Trump, who began by demanding UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER and trying to impose a subservient new regime, is now slinking away, leaving Iran’s hard-liners empowered — and America’s reputation shattered.

How did that happen? America is a superpower, Iran a middle-sized regional power at best. Spending isn’t the only determinant of armed might, but even so a comparison of the two government’s military budgets is ludicrously one-sided:

Yet the Iranian regime is not only still standing, it is stronger than before. Meanwhile, Trump is running away.

Trump’s disastrous leadership isn’t the sole factor behind this debacle, although it’s a large part of the story. In my view there are four main reasons Trump’s Iran “excursion” is ending in humiliation.

First, this was a fundamentally unwinnable war.

Once the initial decapitation strike against Iran’s leadership left the regime’s hold on power intact, Operation Epic Fury became an attempt to end Iran’s threat to world oil supplies by suppressing its missiles and drones with air power. Unfortunately, as the Substack History Does You has documented, such campaigns have never worked. Allied air forces tried to stop Nazi Germany from launching V1s and V2s in World War II; they failed. During the first Gulf War, Coalition air forces devoted huge resources to an attempt to stop Iraq from launching Scud missiles; they also failed. Chasing down mobile launchers, especially in an era of cheap, abundant drones and in a huge, mountainous country like Iran, is an impossible game of whack-a-mole.

Of course, leaders who aren’t terminally arrogant and ignorant don’t start unwinnable wars in the first place.

Second, painful as this is to recognize, the U.S. military, after decades of unchallenged dominance, appears to have lost much of its edge. As Phillips O’Brien recently wrote,

The lack of thought-through US response to the technological changes we are seeing [especially in the Russia-Ukraine war] before it embarked on the Iran bombing shows how smug militaries can be—and the bigger and more powerful they think they are the more smug they tend to be.

There is far too much self-congratulation in the US about its military, a belief that US armed forces are highly professional, show initiative, are thoughtful, etc. This is a romantic vision that Americans are using now to throw all blame for the Iran failure on the Trump Administration.

That said, the Trump administration has made the degradation of the military much worse.

Pete Hegseth, the self-proclaimed Secretary of War, has carried out an unprecedented purge of military officers with impeccable reputations, with the majority of those fired Black or female. He has replaced them with political loyalists like Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of Central Command, who has in effect been running Trump’s war.

The officers who survived the purge got the message. Under Hegseth, official accounts of the war’s progress have been a stream of bombastic claims of victory and ludicrously rosy depictions of the situation on the battlefield. Less than two weeks ago Cooper was still peddling fantasies of easy victory to Congress, asserting among other things that the U.S. could easily open the Strait of Hormuz by force.

Do you believe that these delusions are only for public consumption, that Hegseth has been getting and acting on accurate information? I don’t. It’s far more likely that Hegseth and Trump have also been receiving false, optimistic reports, because nobody in the military dares to tell them the uncomfortable truth.

The sycophancy and flattery Cooper exhibited in that testimony surely reflected groupthink that has led to many bad decisions. For example, reporting by CNN, the Washington Post and the Times finds that U.S. bases and facilities have suffered a remarkable amount of damage from Iranian drone and missile strikes, with casualties and much expensive equipment and aircraft destroyed. Why wasn’t the U.S. military prepared for this possibility?

The lack of preparation clearly reflected a predetermined view that Iran would be so devastated by U.S. attacks that it would be unable to strike back. And it’s reasonable to infer that any officers who tried to warn of the dangers were treated as defeatists and silenced.

Finally, success in modern war depends crucially on out-thinking one’s enemies. But MAGA is all about deprecating hard thinking and valorizing belligerent ignorance.

On Saturday Hegseth addressed the graduating class at West Point. In war, he declared, “you can’t throw your pronouns at the enemy.” He congratulated the cadets on being “fit, not fat.” Despite humiliating failure, Hegseth still has his job — and is still asserting that eliminating DEI wins wars and that bulging biceps can beat drones.

Can America still snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, or should it accept a deal that leaves us clearly worse off than we were before the war? The answer is that running away — if that is what Trump is doing — is now the right move. It’s better to accept a bad deal, one that leaves America much weaker than it was a few months ago, than to double down on a failed war. Time is not on our side: looming shortages of critical weapons, the imminent exhaustion of world oil inventories, and the lost support of our allies and the American public mean that this war needs to end soon.

Quoting Corey Quinn

I cannot believe I'm saying this, but getting the literal Pope to canonize your product's specific technical limitations as a spiritual treatise is the single greatest act of vendor lobbying I have ever seen.

Corey Quinn, on Anthropic co-founder Christopher Olah's influence on Magnifica Humanitas

Tags: ai-ethics, corey-quinn, anthropic, ai

Notes on Pope Leo XIV's encyclical on AI

Dropped this morning by the Vatican: Magnifica Humanitas of His Holiness Pope Leo XIV on Safeguarding the Human Person in the Time of Artificial Intelligence. This is a very interesting document. It's some of the clearest writing I've seen on the ethics of integrating AI into modern society.

Pope Leo XIV chose the name Leo in honor of Pope Leo XIII, who is known for his 1891 Rerum novarum encyclical on "Rights and Duties of Capital and Labor".

This story on Vatican News further clarifies the significance of that decision:

Meeting with the College of Cardinals for their first formal encounter after his election, Pope Leo XIV explained part of the reason for the choice of his papal name. "There are different reasons for this," he said, before going on to explain that he chose the name Leo "mainly because Pope Leo XIII, in his historic encyclical Rerum novarum addressed the social question in the context of the first great industrial revolution."

"In our own day," he continued, "the Church offers to everyone the treasury of her social teaching in response to another industrial revolution and to developments in the field of artificial intelligence that pose new challenges for the defence of human dignity, justice, and labour."

And now we get Pope Leo XIV's own encyclical on the AI revolution. There's a lot in here, but the writing style is very approachable, including to non-Catholics.

A few of my highlights

(I listened to most of the encyclical on a walk with our dog, my first time trying the ElevenReader iPhone app. It worked very well: I pasted in a URL to the document and it read it to me in a very high quality voice, highlighting each paragraph as it went.)

Here are some of my highlights. In each case below emphasis is mine.

Here's a useful description of the interpretability problem for LLMs in section 98:

First, any statement regarding AI risks becoming quickly outdated, given the remarkable pace at which these systems are developing. Second, all of us, including those who design them, possess only a limited understanding of their actual functioning. Indeed, current AI systems are more “cultivated” than “built,” for developers do not directly design every detail, but instead create a framework within which the intelligence “grows.” As a result, fundamental scientific aspects — such as the internal representations and computational processes of these systems — remain, at present, unknown.

I liked section 83's description of the relationship between development and dignity:

For individuals as well as for nations, development is both a duty and a right. Minimum conditions are required for enabling every person and people to flourish in accord with their dignity, without being kept in a state of dependence or excluded from access to necessary goods. Development is truly human when it places people at the center instead of the accumulation of wealth, and when it concerns peoples as well as individuals. Justice demands the recognition of the rights of society and the rights of peoples, and includes a responsibility toward future generations. Development is not truly human if it increases consumption for some while shifting costs and burdens onto others, or relegates entire regions to subordinate roles, preventing them from realizing their full potential.

Baked in cultural biases and sycophancy get a mention in section 100:

In personal use, three aspects in particular deserve careful consideration: the ease with which results are obtained, the impression of objectivity and the simulation of human communication. The speed and simplicity with which information, complex analyses, media content and practical assistance can be accessed undoubtedly makes life easier. Yet they can also encourage excessive reliance and the search for ready-made answers, and weaken personal creativity and judgment. The apparent objectivity of the responses and suggestions these systems provide can lead us to overlook the fact that they reflect the cultural assumptions of those who designed and trained them, with all their strengths and limitations. The artificial imitation of positive human communication — words of advice, empathy, friendship and even love — can be engaging and at times genuinely helpful. However, for less discerning users, it can also be misleading, creating the illusion of a relationship with a real personal subject. When words are simulated, they do not build genuine relationships, but only their appearance. The artificial imitation of care or support can become particularly risky when it enters contexts where real relationships and emotional bonds are lacking.

101 touches on the environmental impact:

Current AI systems require enormous amounts of energy and water, significantly influencing carbon dioxide emissions, and place heavy demands on natural resources. As their complexity increases, especially in the case of large language models, the need for computing power and storage capacity grows too, which requires an extensive network of machines, cables, data centers and energy-intensive infrastructure. For this reason, it is essential to develop more sustainable technological solutions that reduce environmental impact and help protect our common home.

102 covers the risks of algorithmic systems making decisions that impact people's lives without "compassion, mercy, forgiveness":

The use of AI is never a purely technical matter: when it enters processes that affect people’s lives, it touches on rights, opportunities, status and freedom. Important and sensitive decisions — concerning employment, credit, access to public services or even a person’s reputation — risk being fully delegated to automated systems that do not know “compassion, mercy, forgiveness, and above all, the hope that people are able to change,” and can therefore give rise to new forms of exclusion.

105 emphasizes the need for human accountability in how these systems are applied:

For AI to respect human dignity and truly serve the common good, responsibility must be clearly defined at every stage: from those who design and develop these systems to those who use them and rely on them for concrete decisions. In many cases, however, the internal processes leading to a result remain opaque, making it harder to assign responsibility and correct errors. This is where accountability becomes crucial: the possibility of identifying who must “account” for decisions, justify them, monitor them, and, when necessary, challenge them and remedy any harm caused.

And 108 touches on the way AI amplifies the power of those with resources:

In fact, as with every major technological shift, AI tends to amplify the power of those who already possess economic resources, expertise and access to data. In light of the common good and the universal destination of goods, this raises serious concerns, since small but highly influential groups can shape information and consumption patterns, influence democratic processes and steer economic dynamics to their own advantage, undermining social justice and solidarity among peoples. For this reason, it is essential that the use of AI, especially when it touches on public goods and fundamental rights, be guided by clear criteria and effective oversight, grounded in participation and subsidiarity.

That same section explicitly calls out data as something that should be thought of more as a public good:

[...] Moreover, ownership of data cannot be left solely in private hands but must be appropriately regulated. Data is the product of many contributors and should not be treated as something to be sold off or entrusted to a select few. It is necessary to think creatively in order to manage data as a common or shared good, in a spirit of participation, as Saint John Paul II already suggested regarding collective goods.

Given that Palantir is named after a Lord of the Rings reference, I can't help but wonder if the J.R.R. Tolkien quote from The Return of the King (section 213) was the Pope throwing a little shade at Peter Thiel.

The twentieth-century Catholic author J.R.R. Tolkien, in the words of a protagonist in one of his novels, described our responsibility in this way: “It is not our part to master all the tides of the world, but to do what is in us for the succour of those years wherein we are set, uprooting the evil in the fields that we know, so that those who live after may have clean earth to till.” The civilization of love will not arise from a single or spectacular gesture, but from the sum total of small and steadfast acts of fidelity that serve as a bulwark against dehumanization. For this reason, it is worthwhile pausing to reflect on some aspects of how we, each in our own way, can cooperate in building the civilization of love.

Another 2026 prediction down

On 6th January this year I joined the Oxide and Friends 2026 predictions podcast episode to talk about predictions for 2026, 2029 and 2032. I wrote mine up here, with hindsight they weren't nearly ambitious enough - it's already undeniable that LLMs write good code, we've made huge advances in sandboxing and New Zealand kākāpō have indeed had a truly excellent breeding season.

There's one segment from the episode that I didn't bother to include in my write-up, but that I can't resist providing as a lightly-edited transcript here:

Bryan Cantrill: 37:13

I think that AI has created some real public perception problems for itself. And I think that you are gonna have one of the frontier model companies, this year, have a white paper explaining how the proliferation of AI will mean prosperity for everybody. They will be trying to make some economic argument - because this is gonna be a 2026 election issue, how we think of these things and how they are regulated and it's a big mess. There's more heat than light in this debate.

Simon Willison: 38:05

I'd like to tag something on to that one: I think that only works if they can sort of wash that through existing trusted experts. Sam Altman and Dario are constantly publishing essays about this stuff and nobody believes a word they say. Get Barack Obama's signature on one of these position papers and maybe you've got something people might start to trust a little bit.

Adam Leventhal: 38:27

Otherwise, it's just like "leaded gas is good for you", says Exxon.

Bryan Cantrill: 38:31

I mean, yeah. God. Obama... let's go with that, that's a great one because if it's like Bill Clinton everyone's gonna kind of roll their eyes, so it's gotta be someone who's got real credibility saying that this is gonna be broad-based... I'd say if they get that person to do it, it's gonna be revealed that that's also a bit crooked.

Simon Willison: 38:57

How about the Pope?

Bryan Cantrill: 39:01

The Pope is very into this stuff! That's a great prediction. We've hit pay dirt. The Pope weighing in on LLMs and their economic impact on the world.

Simon, I'm giving you full credit if the Pope weighs in believing that this is gonna be economic devastation.

My prediction here looks a whole lot less insightful given the Leo XIV/Leo XIII relationship, which I was unaware of when we recorded the episode!

Tags: predictions, ai, kakapo, generative-ai, llms, bryan-cantrill, ai-ethics

Basecamp Five

I've been working on Basecamp for half my life, and nearly my entire professional career in software. The first code was written in the summer of 2003 when I was just 23. Now I'm 46, and we've just released the fifth major version. 

It's an incredible update to a service that continues to help about a million users a day avoid dropping the ball when working with others. It's AI accessible, but not agent hysteric. It's still famously easy to use, still executes the basics beautifully, and still focuses on the small to medium-sized teams we've been serving in the Fortune 5,000,000 for decades.

Here are just three of my favorite new features in Basecamp 5:

Lexxy editor: Our new text editor finally brings tables, markdown, and live syntax highlighting for code to Basecamp. Oh, and voice notes. It's built on Meta's Lexical editor toolkit, and it's going to ship as the default for Action Text in the next major version of Rails.

Keyboard accessible: After moving to Linux, building Omarchy, and acquiring a taste for mechanical keyboards, I've come to love navigating the computer primarily through hotkeys. So with a lot of effort, Basecamp is now a delight to drive through the keys, and you don't have to be a brainiac to remember them all: just hold down SHIFT, and they're revealed in the interface. SHIFT + S opens the sidebar, ESC moves focus between it and the main page, SHIFT + C starts composing a comment/chat line/answer.

The permanent sidebar: If you live in Basecamp, like I do, it's to stay on top of all the new things that are constantly happening in a busy account, and that's just gotten so much faster with the new permanent sidebar. Before, we had a Hey! menu in the top bar. You'd get a little dot when something was new, then you'd open it, click, and the menu would close. If you had five things that were new, it'd be open-click-close, open-click-close, five times. Being able to zoom through these now with just the return key, tap, tap, tap, and I've read three new things. So good.

And there's so much more. Jason put together a great summary on the new marketing site, which in itself is brand new too. A back-to-basics design in many ways. As our entire industry is getting swept up in agent hysteria (and I love AI as much as anyone!), we thought it better to focus on the human communication that's the cornerstone of Basecamp. The new site just speaks plainly to that mission and shows you the software right at the top.

Another thing that's back is color, specifically in the logo. Basecamp's clever but flat paperclip logo has been replaced with a modern take of our original rolling mountains. In full three dimensions, with depth and a gradient. Love it. 

Overall, I'm really proud of what we've built with Basecamp Five. We're inching in on a quarter of a century in service! We still have customers who signed up back in early 2004! This is the kind of legacy that makes me beam, and the new version is just ace. 

If you've tried Basecamp in the past, it's time to take another look. If you haven't tried it yet, you're in for a treat.

screenshot-2026-05-26_12-33-29-medium.jpg

The embattled witnesses

Residential buildings at dusk with a thick column of smoke rising in the distance, framed by a window grille in the foreground.

The UN’s special rapporteurs are experts charged with a singular mandate: to monitor the world’s worst human rights abuses

- by Alvina Hoffmann

Read on Aeon

Areas of Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall Today

The corporate tax rate really matters

Three findings emerge. First, improvements in aggregate tax competitiveness are positively and significantly associated with real GDP per capita growth, robust to a wide range of controls. Second, this aggregate effect is driven entirely by the corporate tax pillar; no other component displays a significant growth effect. Third, the corporate tax effect materializes contemporaneously and accumulates over time, with a statistically significant three-year cumulative effect of approximately 0.16 percentage points per one-point improvement in the corporate tax score. These results suggest that the full architecture of the corporate tax system, not merely the headline statutory rate, is what matters for growth.

That is from a recent paper by Michael Christla and Monika Köppl–Turyna.  Via the excellent Samir Varma.

The post The corporate tax rate really matters appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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A Full Moon Checkup

The Moon appears along the centerline of scans acquired by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on January 3, 2026. These monthly lunar scans help ensure the long-term consistency of Landsat’s Earth observations.
Landsat Project Science Support/Ross Walter

In April 2026, NASA’s Artemis program took humanity back to the Moon, providing a new look at Earth’s only natural satellite. As the world celebrates the return of Artemis II’s four astronauts, the lunar surface continues to play a critical role in missions much closer to Earth.

Since 1972, the NASA/USGS Landsat program has captured the longest continuous record of Earth’s land surface, collecting images that track everything from crop health to glacial change. But with such a long data record, how can scientists trust that images acquired today can be accurately compared to those from days, years, or even decades ago? They look to the Moon.

Unlike Earth, with its constantly changing weather, seasons, and landscape, the Moon is remarkably stable. With no atmosphere and virtually no surface changes, the Moon reflects sunlight in a predictable, consistent way. This stability gives engineers a reference to fine-tune Landsat’s instruments and be confident that the data are accurate.

Once a month, during the full Moon, the spacecraft turns its instruments away from Earth and points them directly at the lunar surface. Over the course of two orbits, the spacecraft maneuvers to image the moon 15 times. During each pass, Landsat captures detailed measurements of light reflected off the Moon’s surface, revealing any unintended sensor change, or “drift,” that needs correction.

The animation above shows the scans acquired by band 4 of the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on January 3, 2026. Each parallel scan was acquired by one of the 14 detector modules that comprise the instrument’s focal plane. The satellite maneuvers so that each module images the Moon, with one module capturing it twice.  

Landsat Project Science Support/Ross Walter

This work is one piece in a complex puzzle called calibration, which is part of what makes NASA the gold standard of science worldwide. From before launch all the way to the end of a satellite’s life, engineers ensure that the data collected by the satellite is accurate and consistent. In addition to looking to the Moon, Landsat also looks to places on Earth where the ground is uniform, like the wide, pale expanse of the White Sands desert in New Mexico.

Scientists also collect measurements on the ground to check against those collected from space. For example, they ensure that surface temperature readings match those recorded by Landsat’s thermal band. All these efforts are part of what make a Landsat image different from photos taken by consumer cameras. Landsat images contain crucial information that scientists can use to map changes in habitats, tree species, agricultural patterns, and more.

Video and animation by Ross Walter, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Ross Walter and Madeleine Gregory, Landsat Project Science Support.

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Northern Norway is ready to launch. EU Space Regulation — and its new Arctic policy – is not.

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What I’ve been reading

1. Paul Mendes-Flohr, Martin Buber: A Life of Faith and Dissent.  A beautifully written, first-rate intellectual biography of Buber.  It is hard to imagine finding a better book on him.

2. Robert C. Austin and Artan R. Hoxha, Enver Hoxha: Twentieth-Century Tyrant.  How did this strange story end up happening?  This book offers the best set of explanations I have seen.  But Hoxha himself remains a psychological cipher at the end of it all?  It turns out he never thought Mao was much of an ideologue, being too influenced by Chinese culture and thought.  Also I had not previously realize how much Albania’s growing youth population — with the most natalist demographics in Europe at the time — was considered a major threat to the regime.

3. Malachi Haim Hacohen, Karl Popper: The Formative Years 1902-1945.  Such an excellent and high-level work.  And the author is not afraid to accuse Popper of making everything about himself, and also writing on topics (Plato, Hegel, Marx) where he was less than well-informed.  I had not known that Popper hated Toulmin’s Wittgenstein’s Vienna book, feeling that the actual Viennese environment at the time was far more positive and forward-looking than most intellectual historians were inclined to grant.  Nor had I known how cut off Popper was during his New Zealand years, as there were no plane connections, New Zealand news did not cover foreign affairs very much, and the mail was painfully slow.  Popper also wanted to turn the Mont Pelerin Society into a coalition group, including socialists.  That did not happen.

4. Frank Callanan, James Joyce: A Political Life.  An excellent, lengthy study, I now see Joyce as intensely political whereas I did not before.  “His fiercely Parnellian critique of Ireland and Irish nationalism is only politically intelligible as written from within Irish nationalism.  It is an argument addressed to Irish nationalists.  The paradox of Joyce’s nationalism is that it is in his critique of nationalism that his nationalism is most evident.”  As Italo Svevo once stated: “Joyce is twice a rebel, against England and against Ireland.”

5. Suzy Hansen, From Life Itself: Turkey, Istanbul, and a Neighborhood in the Age of ErdoğanAn insightful look into Erdoğan, Turkish Islamism, parts of Istanbul, and most of all how Turkey slid into autocracy.  One of the best case studies I know of on how a fragile democracy can go away.

All of these books are very good.  I’ve been seeing complaining in the press lately, and on social media, about the paucity of book reviews these days.  Well, no one is stopping you from reviewing books!  Just do it.

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Taking the L … and Trump’s Long Iran Walk Into the Twilight

With the latest “peace deal” now perhaps receding into what we might call the eternal “two weeks,” I wanted to provide some mix of guidance or thoughts on what is going on. How do we go from a peace deal that is all but inked (despite only being a ceasefire and agreement to negotiate) to now where the deal is drifting off into the distance and Trump is adding new demands on Truth Social?

Let’s go back to the fundamentals.

There’s only one letter available for Trump to take here, and it’s an L. This has been the case since the first hours or days of the conflict when Iran’s government didn’t fall and it took control of the Strait of Hormuz, which was something the White House had not planned for or anticipated. Critically, it became clear that Iran could hold out on a timeline much longer than Trump’s. Everything since has been fallout of those essential facts.

Everything else is just a matter waiting for Trump to take the L, which has been the only available real end of this saga for months. His team in Pakistan keeps coming up with face saving ways to take that L. They leak that a deal is coming. Trump brags a deal is coming. It’s “largely” finalized, as he memorably said. But then outside players and Trump’s own backers start saying the obvious, which is that Trump is taking the L. And he just can’t handle it. He needs everyone not to notice. But people do notice, either backers who are upset he’s taking it or opponents who are eager to amplify his entirely self-created humiliation.

So he starts talking tough. The White House puts out blind quotes about how Iran has totally, positively agreed to voluntarily ditch its nuclear program in some future negotiation if the U.S. just agrees to this ceasefire. Trump starts adding new demands. And then, predictably, Iran reaches out to the U.S. negotiators and says What the actual F … and the illusory “deal” disappears. On X, his diehards frantically post that they’ve been briefed by the White House and as long as everyone keeps posting that Trump is rocking, this all will be okay. For everyone but the dead-enders, though, the pattern becomes clear. Everything that happens now is a matter of Trump’s inability to accept something that actually happened more than two months ago.

It’s worth remembering that for the master of the “art of the deal,” a “deal” isn’t an agreement between parties so much as getting one over on a weaker or less sophisticated party. That’s the entirety of Trump’s career in business. It’s also why that business career involved a string of bankruptcies. Because he’s actually not a good negotiator at all when he’s dealing with a sophisticated counterparty. And his business tactics are almost always a matter of overselling or overhyping a product and getting out before the buyers realize that.

In this case, though, the consequences of his self-soothing lurch into Iran have had economic and political costs he simply can’t paper over.

Monday 25 May 1663

Up, and my pill working a little I staid within most of the morning, and by and by the barber came and Sarah Kite my cozen, poor woman, came to see me and borrow 40s. of me, telling me she will pay it at Michaelmas again to me. I was glad it was no more, being indifferent whether she pays it me or no, but it will be a good excuse to lend her nor give her any more. So I did freely at first word do it, and give her a crown more freely to buy her child something, she being a good-natured and painful wretch, and one that I would do good for as far as I can that I might not be burdened.

My wife was not ready, and she coming early did not see her, and I was glad of it.

She gone, I up and then hear that my wife and her maid Ashwell had between them spilled the pot … [of piss and turd – L&M] upon the floor and stool and God knows what, and were mighty merry making of it clean. I took no great notice, but merrily.

Ashwell did by and by come to me with an errand from her mistress to desire money to buy a country suit for her against she goes as we talked last night, and so I did give her 4l., and believe it will cost me the best part of 4 more to fit her out, but with peace and honour I am willing to spare anything so as to be able to keep all ends together, and my power over her undisturbed.

So to my office and by and by home, where my wife and her master were dancing, and so I staid in my chamber till they had done, and sat down myself to try a little upon the Lyra viall, my hand being almost out, but easily brought to again. So by and by to dinner, and then carried my wife and Ashwell to St. James’s, and there they sat in the coach while I went in, and finding nobody there likely to meet with the Duke, but only Sir J. Minnes with my Lord Barkely (who speaks very kindly, and invites me with great compliments to come now and then and eat with him, which I am glad to hear, though I value not the thing, but it implies that my esteem do increase rather than fall), and so I staid not, but into the coach again, and taking up my wife’s taylor, it raining hard, they set me down, and who should our coachman be but Carleton the Vintner, that should have had Mrs. Sarah, at Westminster, my Lord Chancellor’s, and then to Paternoster Row. I staid there to speak with my Lord Sandwich, and in my staying, meeting Mr. Lewis Phillips of Brampton, he and afterwards others tell me that news came last night to Court, that the King of France is sick of the spotted fever, and that they are struck in again; and this afternoon my Lord Mandeville is gone from the King to make him a visit; which will be great news, and of great import through Europe.

By and by, out comes my Lord Sandwich, and he and I talked a great while about his business, of his accounts for his pay, and among other things he told me that this day a vote hath passed that the King’s grants of land to my Lord Monk and him should be made good; which pleases him very well.

He also tells me that things don’t go right in the House with Mr. Coventry; I suppose he means in the business of selling of places; but I am sorry for it. Thence by coach home, where I found Pembleton, and so I up to dance with them till the evening, when there came Mr. Alsopp, the King’s brewer, and Lanyon of Plymouth to see me. Mr. Alsopp tells me of a horse of his that lately, after four days’ pain, voided at his fundament four stones, bigger than that I was cut of, very heavy, and in the middle of each of them either a piece of iron or wood. The King has two of them in his closett, and a third the College of Physicians to keep for rarity, and by the King’s command he causes the turd of the horse to be every day searched to find more.

At night to see Sir W. Batten come home this day from Portsmouth. I met with some that say that the King of France is poisoned, but how true that is is not known. So home to supper and to bed pleasant.

Read the annotations

*Silent Friend*

An excellent and profound movie, large screen essential.  I take this movie to be an engagement with the truths of German romanticism (set in Marburg, with Geothe and Rilke as relevant texts), and asking whether that romanticism decays over time, or simply morphs into new forms and thus renews itself, even in an age of high tech and near-universal measurement.  The narrative swings back and forth between those two views like a pendulum, ultimately settling upon the notion of continuation.  Was perhaps Stevie Wonder an influence too?  The great Tony Leung stars, here is a trailerReviews are very positive but they do not seem to understand the film well?

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Is Gambling Legal in DC and What Bettors Should Know Before They Play

Washington, D.C. has one of the more unusual gambling landscapes in the United States. The District allows some forms of legal gambling, including sports betting, lottery products, charitable gaming, and certain regulated games of skill. At the same time, it does not have traditional commercial casinos, and online casino gambling is not regulated in the same way as online sports betting. That is why the answer to “is gambling legal in DC” is yes, but with important limits.

The confusion usually begins online. A person in the District may see sportsbook apps, sweepstakes casinos, lottery products, fantasy sports contests, and casino-style games on the same phone. They may all look like digital gambling, but D.C. gambling laws do not treat them as one category. Sports wagering has its own rules. Lottery games have their own structure. Casino games, sweepstakes promotions, and social gaming platforms operate under different models.

That changing online environment is also why simple digital game formats such as minesweeper gambling  have become part of the wider gaming conversation. Fast, mobile-friendly games appeal to players who want a direct experience without the clutter of a traditional casino lobby. Platforms such as Winna.com  reflect this shift toward simpler, crypto-friendly casino entertainment, though D.C. users should still understand that legality depends on the type of game, the platform, the player’s location, and whether the activity is authorized under the rules that apply.

For anyone in Washington, DC, the practical approach is to separate gambling into clear buckets. Legal sports betting is different from online casinos. Lottery games are different from sweepstakes casinos. Charitable gambling is different from sportsbook wagering. Once those categories are separated, the District’s rules become much easier to understand.

Legal Online Gaming Laws in the District of Columbia

D.C. permits legal online sports betting through licensed operators. This is the most important point for bettors. A sportsbook app can operate legally in the District only when it is properly approved and when the bettor is physically located within D.C. city limits.

That physical-location rule matters because the Washington metropolitan area crosses several legal boundaries. A person can be in Arlington, Alexandria, Bethesda, Silver Spring, or National Harbor and still feel close to Washington, but those places are outside the District. Maryland and Virginia have their own gambling laws, regulators, and sportsbook markets. D.C. sportsbook apps use geolocation technology to confirm whether a player is actually within the District before accepting a wager.

Online sports betting should not be confused with online casino gambling. A licensed sportsbook can accept sports wagers, but that does not mean it can offer real money online slots, roulette, blackjack, baccarat, or casino table games. The District has not created a full online casino market like some states have. In D.C., legal online sports betting exists, while real money online casinos remain a separate and more limited issue.

Readers who want to check the legal framework directly can review the official D.C. Code section on sports wagering , which explains how mobile wagering, licensing, location rules, age verification, responsible gambling information, and operator requirements are handled.

A Brief History of Gambling in D.C.

Gambling in D.C. developed more narrowly than in many states. The lottery became the most familiar legal gambling product, while charitable gaming and certain regulated activities operated under specific permissions. Unlike Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or nearby Maryland, the District did not build a casino resort market with slot machines, poker rooms, roulette wheels, and table games.

Sports betting changed the conversation. After the national legal environment shifted, D.C. authorized sports wagering and built an early market around a lottery-connected mobile product. That model was different from states that immediately opened the door to several private sportsbooks competing across the market.

The District’s sports betting system has since moved toward more competition. More sportsbook brands have entered the discussion, and bettors now pay closer attention to app quality, pricing, promotions, customer experience, and ease of use. This is a major change from the early period, when the local market was more limited.

The result is a gambling market that feels modern in some ways and restricted in others. Sports bettors have legal options. Lottery players have familiar retail and digital access. Charitable gaming remains available under rules. But casino players do not have the same range of legal, regulated real money online casino options they would find in some other jurisdictions.

Legal Gambling in D.C.

Legal gambling in D.C. generally falls into several categories. The first is the lottery. DC Lottery products remain one of the most established forms of gambling in the District, including draw games, instant games, and related products.

The second is sports betting. Eligible bettors can place wagers through licensed sportsbooks, either online while physically located in the District or at approved retail sportsbook locations. Sports betting has become the most visible modern gambling option in D.C. because it connects directly to mobile apps and the city’s sports culture.

The third is charitable gambling. Certain nonprofit or charitable organizations may conduct approved gaming activities when they follow licensing and operating rules. This can include fundraising activities that use games or prizes, but organizations should not assume that every raffle, bingo event, or prize-based fundraiser is automatically allowed without review.

The fourth is regulated games of skill. D.C. has a framework for games that are treated differently from traditional casino gambling. These activities may appear in certain establishments, but they are not the same thing as a full commercial casino.

What D.C. does not have is a land-based commercial casino market. There are no Las Vegas-style casino resorts in the District, and casino gambling is not available in the same way it is in nearby Maryland.

Is Online Sports Betting Legal in Washington, D.C.

Yes, online sports betting is legal in Washington, D.C. when conducted through approved operators and when the bettor is physically located in the District. This is the clearest legal online gambling category in D.C.

To place a legal sports bet, a user generally needs to create an account with a licensed sportsbook, verify identity, confirm age eligibility, deposit funds through an approved payment method, and allow the app to verify location. Once those steps are complete, the bettor can place wagers on eligible sports and events.

Common sports betting markets include football, basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer, tennis, golf, mixed martial arts, boxing, motorsports, and major international competitions. Local interest often centers on the Washington Commanders, Washington Wizards, Washington Capitals, Washington Nationals, D.C. United, and major college sports events.

Wager types can include moneylines, point spreads, totals, futures, parlays, props, and live bets. Even experienced sports fans should slow down before confirming a wager. Betting odds, payout rules, cash-out features, and promotion terms can vary from one sportsbook to another.

Current Gambling Options Available in Washington D.C.

Current gambling options in Washington, DC include lottery games, legal sports betting, retail sportsbook locations, charitable gambling, games of skill, and certain social or sweepstakes-style gaming products. These options are not all regulated in the same way, and they do not offer the same player protections or legal status.

Sports betting is the most prominent modern option. D.C. bettors can use licensed sportsbook apps when located inside the District, and some retail betting locations operate in connection with sports venues or approved establishments. This gives sports fans several ways to place a wager without leaving the city.

Lottery gaming remains widely available through established retail channels and approved products. Many D.C. residents are more familiar with lottery games than sports betting because the lottery has been part of the local gambling environment for much longer.

Casino gaming is the area where expectations need to be managed. D.C. does not have a full casino industry with slot machines, roulette, blackjack tables, or online casino apps regulated like sportsbooks. Players looking for casino-style entertainment should understand the difference between a regulated sportsbook, a sweepstakes casino, a social casino, and a platform available under another jurisdiction’s rules.

Washington, DC Sports Betting Sites

The D.C. sportsbook market has changed significantly since the early launch period. Bettors now look for trusted sportsbook brands, reliable apps, competitive odds, clear promotions, and smooth payment options. The best sports betting app for one person may not be the best for another, because preferences differ.

Some bettors care most about live betting speed. Others want better parlay tools, more player props, stronger football markets, easy withdrawals, or a familiar interface. New users may value simple navigation and clear explanations more than advanced betting features.

A good sportsbook should make the basics easy. Users should be able to understand the odds, see the potential payout, review the rules, and confirm the wager without confusion. It should also provide visible account tools such as deposit limits, time limits, self-exclusion options, and responsible gambling resources.

Promotions can be useful, but they should never be the only reason to pick a sportsbook. Bonus bets, odds boosts, deposit offers, and parlay promotions often come with conditions. Bettors should read the terms before assuming that a promotion works like cash.

Key Regulations Governing the Gambling Industry in D.C.

D.C.’s gambling rules are built around licensing, oversight, geolocation, age verification, recordkeeping, responsible gambling, and operator compliance. Sportsbook operators must follow local requirements before accepting wagers from people in the District.

For mobile sports betting, geolocation is one of the most visible regulatory tools. A user may have an approved account, but the app still must confirm that the user is physically located inside D.C. before a wager can be placed. If the user crosses into Maryland or Virginia, the app may restrict access or redirect the player to a different market.

Age verification is another key requirement. Operators must confirm that users meet the applicable age rules before they can gamble. Identity checks also help prevent fraud, duplicate accounts, and unauthorized access.

Responsible gambling rules also matter. Legal operators are expected to provide tools and information that help users manage play. These can include deposit limits, time limits, cool-off periods, self-exclusion options, and links to support resources.

What’s Happening in DC Sports Betting Right Now

The biggest theme in D.C. sports betting is the shift toward a more competitive market. The District’s early sports wagering system was more limited, with fewer district-wide mobile choices. The newer structure has allowed more sportsbook competition, giving bettors more options and putting pressure on operators to improve their products.

For users, competition can bring better app design, broader betting markets, stronger promotions, and improved customer service. It can also make the market harder to navigate. More choices mean bettors need to compare platforms carefully instead of simply using the first app they recognize.

For the District, the policy balance is more complicated. Regulators must consider revenue, market access, consumer protection, responsible gambling, and compliance. A competitive market can be good for users, but only when operators are properly licensed and monitored.

This is why bettors should stay current. Sports betting availability, operator status, app features, and promotional rules can change. A platform that is available today may update its terms, add products, or adjust its market access later.

How DC Sports Betting Compares to Maryland and Virginia

D.C., Maryland, and Virginia all allow legal sports betting, but their markets are not identical. The biggest difference is geography. D.C. is a compact city jurisdiction, so physical location can change a bettor’s legal options very quickly.

A person near the border may be able to use one sportsbook while standing in D.C. and a different set of sportsbook apps after crossing into Maryland or Virginia. This is why geolocation is so important. The app is not just checking whether the user has an account; it is checking which jurisdiction’s rules apply at that moment.

The casino landscape is also different. Maryland has land-based casinos with slot machines and table games. Virginia has moved toward casino development in selected cities. D.C. does not have a traditional commercial casino market, so casino gambling discussions in the District tend to focus on whether future legislation could change the current framework.

For sports bettors, the practical takeaway is simple. Do not assume that an app available in Maryland or Virginia is automatically available in D.C., and do not assume that a D.C. sportsbook works outside city limits.

Online Casinos and Casino Games in D.C.

Online casinos are often misunderstood in D.C. because many people use “online gambling” as a catchall phrase. In law and regulation, however, sports betting and casino gambling are different categories.

A legal sportsbook app lets users bet on sports. It does not automatically create permission for online slots, blackjack, roulette, baccarat, poker, or live dealer casino games. D.C. has not launched a broad real money online casino market like states that have legalized iGaming.

This means users should be careful when they see casino-style platforms online. Some may be social casinos, where users play with virtual credits. Some may be sweepstakes casinos, where promotional entries and prize-redemption systems are used. Some may be platforms operating from outside the District. These models are not the same as D.C.-licensed sports betting.

For players interested in modern casino-original formats where permitted, Winna  offers a streamlined and mobile-friendly experience with simple game navigation. It fits the broader trend toward faster digital gaming, but users should always consider the rules that apply in their location.

Legal Sweepstakes Online Casinos in District of Columbia

Sweepstakes online casinos use a different model from traditional real money online casinos. They often involve virtual currencies, free-to-play credits, promotional sweepstakes entries, and prize-redemption mechanics. Because of this structure, they are usually discussed separately from sportsbook apps and real money casino platforms.

The appeal is easy to understand. Sweepstakes platforms can be accessible, simple to use, and familiar to people who like casino-style games. They may offer slots, table-game-style formats, or casual games without presenting themselves as standard real money casinos.

The challenge is that terms vary widely. Users should read eligibility rules, redemption policies, currency explanations, bonus terms, and location restrictions. A sweepstakes casino should not be treated as the same thing as a licensed D.C. sportsbook or a regulated online casino in a state with legal iGaming.

Are Offshore Online Casinos Legal in the District of Columbia

Offshore online casinos are another area where players should be cautious. A website may be accessible from D.C., but access does not automatically mean the site is licensed by District regulators or authorized under District of Columbia gambling laws.

This distinction is important. Legal availability is not the same as technical availability. A site can appear in search results, accept registration attempts, or advertise to U.S. users without being part of D.C.’s regulated gambling market.

The clearest legal path for D.C. bettors is to use approved local options for the gambling category they want. For sports betting, that means licensed operators that can legally accept wagers from people physically located within the District. For casino-style games, users need to understand that D.C. has not created the same kind of regulated real money online casino market that exists elsewhere.

Common Gambling Options in Washington, DC

Gambling option

D.C. status

Typical access

What players should know

Lottery games

Legal

DC Lottery products and retailers

Longstanding regulated option

Online sports betting

Legal through licensed operators

Mobile app or website inside D.C.

Geolocation is required

Retail sportsbook betting

Legal at approved locations

Sports venues or retail locations

Venue rules may apply

Charitable gambling

Legal with approval

Licensed charitable events

Organizations must follow rules

Games of skill

Regulated separately

Approved locations or operators

Not the same as casino gaming

Real money online casinos

Not broadly regulated like sportsbooks

No full D.C. iGaming market

Do not confuse with sports betting

Sweepstakes casinos

Separate promotional model

Online platforms

Terms and eligibility vary

Modern casino-original platforms

Available depending on location and rules

Online and mobile

Check platform terms and local requirements

Bonuses Available at DC Betting Sites

Sportsbook bonuses are common in legal betting markets. New users may see welcome offers, bonus bets, odds boosts, deposit matches, parlay insurance, profit boosts, and limited-time promotions tied to major games.

The headline offer is only part of the story. A bonus may include minimum deposit requirements, minimum odds, expiration dates, eligible markets, withdrawal restrictions, and location rules. Some bonus bets do not return the stake with winnings. Some promotions apply only to certain sports or bet types.

A smart bettor reads the terms before opting in. Promotions should be treated as extras, not as a reason to bet more than planned. If a bonus seems confusing, it is better to skip it than to place a wager without understanding the conditions.

Payments, Deposits, and Mobile Experience

Payment options vary by operator. Sportsbooks may offer debit cards, bank transfers, PayPal, prepaid cards, or other approved methods. Withdrawals can take different amounts of time depending on the method, verification status, and operator policies.

Before depositing, users should check minimum deposit amounts, withdrawal limits, processing times, and account verification requirements. A smooth deposit experience does not always mean withdrawals will be instant, so it is worth reviewing the payment section before opening an account.

Mobile experience is equally important. Since many D.C. bettors use phones, a good app should load quickly, display odds clearly, organize markets logically, and make bet confirmation simple. It should also make responsible gambling tools easy to find.

Charitable Gambling

Charitable gambling is legal in D.C. when conducted under the proper approvals. This can include certain fundraising activities run by eligible organizations, but the rules matter. A charity, nonprofit, or community group should not assume that any prize-based event is automatically allowed.

Licensing, event structure, recordkeeping, prize limits, and reporting requirements may apply. The safest approach for organizers is to review official guidance before planning raffles, bingo events, or other gaming-based fundraisers.

For players, charitable gambling is different from sportsbook betting or casino play. The purpose is usually fundraising, and the event must follow the rules that apply to the sponsoring organization and activity.

Problem Gambling and Responsible Play

Responsible gambling should be part of every betting discussion. Legal betting does not remove risk. Sports wagers, lottery games, casino-style games, and sweepstakes products can all become harmful if a person loses control of time or spending.

Practical habits help. Set a budget before playing. Decide how much time to spend. Do not chase losses. Avoid betting when stressed, angry, intoxicated, or under financial pressure. Treat gambling as entertainment, not income.

Users should also take advantage of account tools when available. Deposit limits, time reminders, cool-off periods, and self-exclusion options exist for a reason. If gambling stops feeling recreational, stepping away is the right move.

Gambling Winnings and Taxes

Gambling winnings can be taxable. This may include lottery prizes, sportsbook winnings, casino-style winnings, or other gambling income. Tax treatment can depend on the amount won, the type of gambling, the player’s residence, and other personal factors.

Players should keep records of deposits, withdrawals, wins, losses, account statements, and tax forms. Even when a platform does not automatically withhold taxes, winnings may still need to be reported.

This is not tax advice. Anyone with significant gambling activity should consult a qualified tax professional or official tax guidance.

Final Thoughts on Legal Betting Options in Washington, DC

So, is gambling legal in DC? Yes, but not in every form. Sports betting is legal through licensed operators. Lottery products are available. Charitable gambling can operate with proper approval. Games of skill have their own framework. But D.C. does not have traditional commercial casinos, and it does not currently offer a broad regulated real money online casino market.

For bettors, the most important rule is to match the activity to the legal category. Use licensed sportsbooks for sports betting. Check location rules before placing a wager. Read promotion terms carefully. Understand that casino-style platforms, sweepstakes casinos, and offshore sites are not the same as locally regulated sports betting.

D.C.’s gambling market will likely keep evolving, especially as sportsbook competition grows and online gaming habits change. The best approach is to stay informed, use approved options, and treat gambling as entertainment rather than a financial strategy.

DC Gambling FAQ

Is gambling legal in DC?

Yes. Gambling is legal in D.C. in specific forms, including lottery games, licensed sports betting, approved charitable gambling, and certain regulated games of skill. Traditional commercial casinos and broadly regulated real money online casinos are not available in the same way.

Is sports betting legal in Washington, D.C.?

Yes. Sports betting is legal in Washington, D.C. through licensed operators. Online wagers generally require the bettor to be physically located inside the District.

Does DC have online sports betting?

Yes. D.C. has online sports betting through approved sportsbook operators. Users must meet account, age, identity, and location requirements before placing wagers.

Can I use DraftKings in DC?

DraftKings availability depends on current market access and licensing status. Bettors should check the app and official D.C. information before trying to register or place a wager.

Is FanDuel legal in DC?

Yes. FanDuel has operated as a legal sports betting option in Washington, D.C. Eligible users must follow the platform’s rules and be located in an approved area when placing bets.

Does Washington, D.C. have a casino?

No. Washington, D.C. does not have a traditional commercial casino resort. Nearby jurisdictions may offer casino gaming, but D.C. itself has a different gambling structure.

Are online casinos legal in Washington, DC?

Real money online casinos are not regulated in D.C. the same way online sportsbooks are. Players should distinguish between sportsbook apps, sweepstakes casinos, social casinos, and other online gaming platforms.

Can you play daily fantasy sports in Washington, DC?

Daily fantasy sports are generally treated differently from traditional sports betting. Users should check current platform terms and local rules before entering contests.

How old do I have to be to bet on sports in Washington, D.C.?

Age requirements can vary by product, venue, and operator. Users should check the sportsbook’s current rules and any applicable venue policies before betting.

Are Washington, D.C. gambling winnings taxable?

Gambling winnings may be taxable at the federal and local level depending on the player’s situation. Bettors should keep records and consult a qualified tax professional for personal guidance.

Photo: Stefan Coders via Pexels


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The Operational Challenges Behind Large Public Fireworks Displays

Large public fireworks shows often appear seamless from the audience perspective. Crowds gather, music starts, lights dim, and coordinated fireworks fill the sky within carefully timed sequences that seem almost effortless once the event begins. Behind the scenes, however, these displays require extensive logistical planning involving transportation, setup, safety coordination, equipment testing, cleanup operations, and strict scheduling that begins long before the first firework launches.

Public fireworks events have become increasingly complex as audiences expect larger productions, tighter synchronization, and safer event environments. Organizers now manage not only the fireworks themselves but also crowd flow, weather monitoring, staging zones, emergency access routes, cleanup coordination, and technical infrastructure across large outdoor spaces. Even smaller municipal displays can involve significant operational pressure once preparation begins.

Timing and Coordination Require Extensive Preparation

One of the biggest challenges behind large fireworks events involves synchronization. Fireworks crews often spend hours testing launch positions, firing sequences, spacing distances, and communication systems before the public ever arrives on-site. Small timing errors can affect entire sections of a coordinated display once the show begins.

This is one reason professional setups increasingly rely on systems like the remote fireworks system , particularly during larger events where launch coordination must remain precise across multiple firing locations simultaneously. Organizers usually focus heavily on reducing manual timing pressure because public shows depend heavily on controlled sequencing once crowds are present.

Weather Conditions Can Reshape Entire Event Plans

Outdoor fireworks events remain heavily dependent on weather conditions. Wind direction, humidity, rain, dry conditions, and visibility all influence whether displays can proceed safely or require last-minute adjustments. Event teams often spend days monitoring forecasts while preparing backup plans in case conditions change unexpectedly.

Weather concerns also affect staging areas, electrical systems, audience access routes, and post-event cleanup operations. Even moderate rain can create difficult working conditions once heavy equipment, launch platforms, cables, and outdoor infrastructure are spread across large event grounds.

Cleanup Starts Long Before the Event Ends

Most attendees leave shortly after fireworks displays finish, but operational crews often continue working deep into the night. Firework debris, temporary fencing, staging materials, vendor waste, and crowd-related cleanup can take hours depending on the size of the event.

Large public spaces frequently require extensive surface cleaning afterward, especially in areas with heavy foot traffic, food vendors, or temporary installations. Event crews handling cleanup around launch zones, walkways, and outdoor staging areas sometimes rely on industrial pressure washing equipment  to restore heavily used surfaces after large crowds move through parks, parking lots, or public venues during major celebrations.

Transportation and Storage Add Additional Complexity

Photograph illustrating this sponsored article

Fireworks displays require careful transportation planning because equipment, launch systems, safety barriers, wiring, and pyrotechnic materials often arrive through tightly coordinated delivery schedules. Delays affecting even one shipment can complicate setup timelines significantly.

Storage also becomes an operational concern before and after events. Equipment must remain secure, protected from weather exposure, and organized in ways that allow crews to work efficiently during setup. Large displays frequently involve far more technical infrastructure than audiences realize while watching the final production.

Safety Planning Extends Beyond the Fireworks Themselves

Public fireworks events require coordination with security personnel, emergency responders, traffic management teams, and local authorities long before the show takes place. Crowd size, evacuation routes, fire prevention planning, and restricted access zones all become part of the operational process.

Event organizers now spend significant time planning around audience movement and public safety expectations in addition to pyrotechnic coordination itself. Even relatively short fireworks displays may involve full-day operational schedules for crews managing logistics behind the scenes.

Public Displays Depend on Behind-the-Scenes Precision

The most successful fireworks shows usually feel effortless because extensive preparation removed as many visible problems as possible before the audience arrived. Careful timing, organized equipment management, weather monitoring, and coordinated cleanup all contribute quietly to the overall experience.

While spectators focus mainly on the final display in the sky, large public fireworks events depend heavily on operational planning happening far outside the spotlight. Behind every major show is a large amount of technical coordination designed to keep the experience visually impressive, organized, and safe from beginning to end.

Photo by Leticia Golubov  on Unsplash


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Links 5/25/26

Links for you. Science:

‘Very contagious’ parvovirus swirling throughout Northern California
How Does It Spread? Answering this question is essential to public health, but people keep getting it wrong.
Dinosaurs had company in the dark: Amber fossil reveals an ancient glow that lit Cretaceous nights
Study highlights state-level differences in HPV vaccine uptake
Grant review homophily
A Single Infusion Could Suppress H.I.V. for Years, Study Suggests
How an ‘Impossible’ Idea Led to a Pancreatic Cancer Breakthrough

Other:

A Figure From Democrats’ Recent Past May Hold the Key to Beating Donald Trump
The Revolt Against the Girl Bosses Has Finally Come
Do Democratic Party leaders benefit from doomerism? (very good)
Antisemitic Hantavirus Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading—and the Platforms Are Hands Off
Democrats Need to Realize What Time It Is: On Conjuncture, Revolution, and the Next American Republic
You Made Your Ruling. Now Enforce It Yourself.
Parents of teens who break curfew in D.C. will be prosecuted, DOJ says. The Justice Department’s crackdown on crime comes ahead of 250th anniversary events in the nation’s capital.
Trump Already Has His ‘Get Out Of Jail Free’ Card. Now He Wants A ‘Get Out Of IRS Audits’ Card
A.I. Populism Is Here. And No One Is Ready.
The New York Times Got Caught Using AI Hallucinations in Its Reporting
Andreessen Horowitz Is Spending on Politics Like No Other
Government by Payback Squad
She Helped Plan Her Teen’s Abortion, So CPS Took Her Daughter Away. Child protective services is being used as an anti-abortion weapon in banned and pro-choice states
Republicans Will Do Liberal Things, But Conservatively
Alex Haley’s “Roots” to be removed from Knox County Schools libraries
Empty Waymos invade Atlanta neighborhood, circle cul-de-sac for hours with no passengers
Internet of Shit: AI Poop Analysis App Offered to Sell Me Database of Its Users’ Poops
Families caring for disabled relatives face unthinkable choices as Medicaid cuts loom
The progressive plan to reclaim the working class
In northern Ukraine, it was boy vs. Russian drone. The boy won.
The families going hungry because of Trump’s food stamp cuts
Trump’s $10 Billion Shakedown of IRS Takes Unnervingly Corrupt Turn
If Your Voters Can’t Vote, Your Messaging Is Irrelevant. Would you just fight, for fuck’s sake?
Trump touted Palantir on Truth Social after buying the company’s stock, records show
Black voter turnout soars amid GOP’s racist map-rigging
Labor leaders call collective bargaining veto a ‘betrayal’ by Virginia governor. Union leaders say veto from Democrat Abigail Spanberger is an about-face from promises she made on campaign trail
Trump Bought Corporations’ Stock as His Administration Boosted Their Business
Unauthorized ICE ‘wellness checks’ by police at Ohio schools draw outrage
Too Much Is Happening Too Fast. The AI boom is meant to overwhelm you.
A Cautious New Approach to Trump’s Impeachments at the Smithsonian

Flag Design

Every place has a local cryptid; more places need a local Pictish Beast, a creature in historical art that's drawn so weirdly that no one can tell what animal it's supposed to be.

The Everyday Health Products People Research More Carefully Than Before

Health and wellness products have become part of everyday life for many people, but consumers are noticeably more cautious about what they buy than they were several years ago. Instead of relying only on marketing claims or popular trends, people increasingly spend time reading ingredient labels, comparing product quality, checking reviews, and researching how products fit into long-term routines before making decisions. Studies and market reports show that consumers are becoming more proactive and selective about health-related purchases overall.

This shift is especially visible in products tied to food, hygiene, home cleanliness, and daily wellness habits. Many buyers now care as much about practicality, transparency, and ingredients as they do about convenience.

Food Choices Are Getting More Attention

One major area where people research more carefully is everyday nutrition. Consumers increasingly look beyond calorie counts and pay closer attention to ingredients, processing methods, additives, and how foods affect long-term health habits. Wellness researchers have noted that people are becoming more ingredient-aware and proactive about understanding what they consume regularly.

This has made highly specific diet questions much more common online. People exploring restrictive or structured eating styles often spend significant time researching exactly which foods fit within certain guidelines before changing their routines. Questions around foods that are allowed on carnivore diet  reflect how consumers increasingly want clarity and predictability around everyday eating habits instead of following vague wellness advice.

The broader trend suggests people are becoming more intentional about understanding what they eat daily rather than relying entirely on convenience.

Home Hygiene Products Are Facing More Scrutiny

Consumers are also paying much closer attention to products used around the home. Surface cleaners, sprays, wipes, air products, and sanitizing supplies are no longer viewed simply as generic household items by many buyers. Ingredient lists, scent intensity, environmental impact, and product safety now influence purchasing decisions much more heavily than before.

Research on wellness-focused consumer behavior shows growing demand for products perceived as cleaner, more transparent, and easier to integrate into long-term healthy routines.

This is especially noticeable with frequently used products like surface sanitizing wipes , where many households now compare materials, scent profiles, and overall product feel much more carefully instead of automatically buying the cheapest available option.

For many consumers, daily-use products now feel more connected to overall lifestyle choices than they did previously.

Ingredient Awareness Has Increased Across Categories

Bottles of supplements

Consumers today are far more likely to research ingredients before purchasing wellness-related products. Surveys and wellness reports show growing skepticism toward vague claims, heavily processed products, and unclear labeling practices.

People increasingly want to understand what products contain, how they are made, and whether health claims are supported realistically. This applies not only to food and supplements, but also skincare, cleaning products, hygiene items, and household wellness products used regularly throughout the week.

The shift reflects a broader move toward transparency and informed decision-making across everyday consumer behavior.

Wellness Habits Are Becoming More Routine-Based

Recent wellness research suggests that people are less interested in dramatic one-time solutions and more focused on products that fit naturally into sustainable routines. Consumers often stick with habits that feel practical, repeatable, and emotionally comfortable within everyday life.

As a result, buyers tend to research products more carefully when they expect to use them frequently. Small recurring purchases often receive more scrutiny now because consumers understand those products become part of long-term routines rather than occasional use only.

This applies equally to food choices, home cleaning products, hygiene supplies, and wellness-related household habits.

Consumers Are More Skeptical of Marketing Claims

The growth of wellness trends online has also made many people more cautious about exaggerated promises. Consumers increasingly compare reviews, look for outside opinions, and evaluate whether products realistically match their needs instead of trusting dramatic marketing language immediately.

This skepticism has pushed many companies toward clearer messaging, simpler ingredient lists, and more transparent product education because buyers now expect more information before committing to regular-use products.

People are still highly interested in wellness and health-related products, but they are approaching those purchases with far more research and scrutiny than they did during earlier trend-driven periods.

Everyday Products Now Feel More Connected to Long-Term Wellness

The biggest change may simply be how consumers think about ordinary purchases overall. Food, cleaning supplies, hygiene products, and home wellness items are increasingly viewed as part of broader lifestyle habits rather than isolated purchases made purely out of convenience.

Consumers are asking more questions, reading more labels, and comparing more carefully because many people now see everyday products as directly connected to how they feel physically and mentally over time. Smaller purchasing decisions have gradually become part of larger conversations around comfort, health, and long-term routine consistency.

Photo: Zoshua Colah via Unsplash


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Cruel Green Card Limits

Trump’s New Green Card Policy Punishes Legal Immigrants Without Solving Anything

There is little question that the new Trump administration policy to require most foreigners seeking green cards to return to their home countries to wait endlessly is unnecessarily disruptive, cruel and based on anti-immigrant bias.

But the bigger question is this: What problem does this policy resolve exactly?

As described, the change in policy – the first in 60 years and apparently requiring no other administrative hurdle – will mean hundreds of thousands of immigrants following the strictest legal routes are suddenly being ordered out of the country to await word that may never come that their case finally has been reviewed.

Many will be forced to return to situations that are dangerous or that represent economic hardship, and it will mean more family separations, of course. But millions of Americans will be affected as well, since more than 70 percent of green card requests are from those with family already here or those whose love affairs or jobs have prompted their relocation.

Indeed, most recently, this order would have adversely affected our daughter-in-law, who has been here from Spain legally for five years with legal work permits until the system finally called up her naturalization processing and approved it.  Requiring that she return to Europe likely would have resulted in her husband, our son, moving to Spain rather than for her to continue working legally, paying taxes, contributing to U.S. interests.  There never was a question about her intent or about her ability to support herself or about following the rules.

The whole, complicated immigration process is meant to review records of individuals for criminal behavior or disqualifying behavior. This memo is a broadbrush approach towards simply wiping out even applying for permanent status.

So, again, what problem are we trying to solve, other than to spread the unending swell of distaste for illegal immigration – particularly  among non-White migrants – to legal immigration that the Trump administration insists that it supports.

Needless to say, Melania Trump was not forced to leave the U.S. for her permanent legal status to change.

The Explanations

The announcement that the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, USCIS, the agency that oversees the legal immigration system, suddenly would grant green cards to people inside the country only in “extraordinary circumstances” is shaking up legal immigration – and seems bound to prompt lawsuits and unwanted review.

Those applying for permanent residency, apparently including those cases already in process,  will have to go through consular processing from outside the country, according to the USCIS announcement.

A USCIS memo said, “When aliens apply from their home country, it reduces the need to find and remove those who decide to slip into the shadows and remain in the U.S. illegally after being denied residency.” Of course, those applying for green card status are known to the USCIS, having filed all the requited legal paperwork , including their addresses and phone numbers.

The effects will be seen in more split families, longer waits at underserved consulates abroad, and likely fewer green cards than the 1.4 million issued annually, including 820,000 from within the U.S. . – meaning that on a steady basis, the government found a million people a year as individuals eligible for this benefit..  Apart from all else, the State Department just fired another 250 consular staffers around the world, making the job of vetting green cards from overseas more difficult.

As The Washington Post notes, the new guidelines arrive as the Trump administration has sought to sharply restrict legal immigration pathways to the country. The administration’s ICE campaign against those here without proper documents has spilled over into cancellation of asylum programs, revocation of temporary protective status and more rigidly reduced immigration caps altogether. Under the changes in refugee policies, 6,300 White South Africans were allowed into the U.S. this year, and only three others.

Over 10 years, most who became legal permanent residents while in the U.S. were sponsored by a relative or an employer. There are various pathways to obtain green cards, permanent  legal residency and work permits one step short of naturalization.  People with temporary visas can apply to adjust their status if they are the spouse of a U.S. citizen, for example, as do more than 70 percent of applicants.

USCIS Director Joseph Edlow  has said that there could be exceptions to the new guidance for people in the United States on “dual intent” visas that allow them to pursue a permanent legal status while residing in the country temporarily.  But he wrote that “as a general matter the discretionary approval of such a request is extraordinary given Congress’s intent that aliens should depart once the purpose for which they sought parole or nonimmigrant admission from [the Department of Homeland Security] has been accomplished.”

Immigration advocates say that once people leave, it is unlikely that they will return – which may be the real point here. Information and past statistics on the distribution of green cards suggest that the Trump administration is looking well beyond the facts to pursue an anti-immigration ideology rather than processes to streamline or rationalize a complicated process.


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Monday assorted links

1. Sampling DNA from animal skin parchments.

2. The making of Indian statistics.

3. What happens if your iPhone is stolen in London? (NYT)

4. Brazil school phone bans: “We then show that test scores, which were trending similarly in the two groups prior to the ban, improved by 0.06 s.d. in treatment schools relative to control.”

5. Travels in the Stans.

6. Modifying research paper formats using AI.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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May 25, 2026.   Memorial Day.

Monday, May 25th, is the anniversary of the deadliest plane crash ever on U.S. soil — the crash of American Airlines flight 191 at Chicago-O’Hare, in 1979.

Design flaws and faulty maintenance practices led to the deaths of 273 people.

You can learn more about the accident in my 2024 post, here.

Details of the disaster are eerily similar to what befell UPS flight 2976 in Louisville this past November. Read about that one here.

 

Related Stories:

THE TRIBULATIONS OF THE DC-10
WHAT HAPPENED IN LOUISVILLE?

The post May 25, 2026.   Memorial Day. appeared first on AskThePilot.com.

New Aesthetics awards

Patrick Collison tweets:

Tyler and I just published a list of the recipients of the New Aesthetics grants: newaesthetics.art/grants.

Thank you very much to all who applied. There were far more applications than we expected. We funded 28 grantees and are excited to see what they create. My reflections on the whole thing:

• Though there are clearly selection dynamics afoot, figuring out some route beyond the current aesthetic moment seems to be of wider interest in the art community than I would have guessed. Many applicants described their dissatisfaction with the status quo, some in strong terms. We had to close applications after a few weeks because there were so many.

• It’s too early to call it, but it seems that both beauty as an unapologetic goal (contra much that is in modernist and contemporary approaches), and ways to channel pre-modern styles into something new for the present era, are of growing interest.

• The awards made me reflect on the perhaps obvious issue of how hard it must be for an artist to persistently do something new: schools, galleries, buyers, etc., all have structurally embedded preferences as well. These individual awards made me wonder what form supporting new clusters could take.

• Architecture seems to me like the discipline most ripe for new ideas. One correspondent observed: “American architects are somewhat constrained by the association with the academy, in addition to the well known regulation issues. There is a tendency to overthink things so that the designs are formally interesting to someone deep in the conversation, but lacking poetry and magic. There are more firms in Europe, South America and beyond that “just do things” (especially in places where it is easier to build).” This was evident in the submissions.

• AI seems to be making people rethink things in a quite fundamental way, just as urbanization/industrialization/popularization of photography did at the end of the 19th century. For some that will mean interesting new forms of AI-augmented art, but the effects of the rethinking will likely be wider.

• Arts funding is clearly as precarious and scarce as ever. That’s unfortunate, but it probably also means that individual actors can have meaningful impact, and I encourage others to get involved if interested.

• There’s a lot to know that is not written down, and I’m very grateful to those who have helped and advised me along the way.

I will offer thoughts of my own soon.  Here is our original call for proposals.

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Are you tired of the Trump era yet?

I get a lot of flak from progressives for being a “both sides” kind of commentator. I spend a fair amount of time criticizing leftist ideology and expounding on the very real failures of progressive governance, both of which have gotten much worse over the last decade. Yes, I support the Democrats, but that support is contingent — if their ideology and competence deteriorate to the point where the Republicans are less bad, I’ll switch to supporting the GOP. So it’s worth it to fight to halt and reverse the deterioration; in the long term, the cost of ignoring extremists and policy failures in order to have “no enemies on the left” is very high.

And yet right now, despite all of the negative trends on the left, the choice of which party Americans should support has never been clearer. The second Trump administration has unleashed a dizzying array of measures seemingly tailor-made to weaken the United States of America — sometimes at the behest of rightist extremists, sometimes due to Trump’s own mercurial whims, and sometimes in order to enrich Trump and his clique.

Sometimes it’s hard to keep track of everything Trump is doing to tear down the America I grew up in. In his first term, it was often said that he avoided criticism using a “DDOS” strategy — rhetorically attacking so many opponents at such blinding speed that they couldn’t focus on any one outrage for long. In his second term, the DDOS is actual policy; Trump inflicts real damage on such a broad array of U.S. institutions, with such incredible speed, that the news can’t keep track of them all.

To illustrate this, I decided to write a post about three mostly unrelated pieces of Trumpian insanity:

  • The assault on international tech industry employees and founders

  • The disastrous Iran War

  • Trump’s unprecedented corruption

Either the second or the third of these would have been a presidency-ending disaster for Barack Obama, George W. Bush, or Bill Clinton, while the first would have alienated broad swaths of the business community. But for Trump, it’s just business as usual. The stories crowd each other out of the headlines, and everyone just sort of gets overloaded and starts tuning out the news. Trump’s approval ratings drift slowly downward, but nothing else really happens. Hardcore MAGA supporters just keep screaming that everyone has “TDS”, while Trump’s wavering allies eventually manage to convince themselves that Democrats would be even worse.

But anyway, if you were paying attention, here’s the latest round of Trumpian disasters.

Trump kicks the tech industry where it hurts

A couple of days ago, without any warning, Donald Trump’s immigration agency announced a new rule. Foreign workers working in the U.S. on temporary visas, they announced, must now return to their home countries while applying for green cards — a process that can take years.

This rule would effectively kick most of the high-skilled visa workers in America out of the country. America’s typical pipeline of high-skilled immigration is basically “try before you buy” — people come to work on visas, then apply for permanent residency while in the country. This procedure is called Adjustment of Status. Almost all green card holders — except for investors — get their green cards this way:

Source: Congress via Connor O’Brien

The new policy would end this practice, thus shutting off the main avenue of high-skilled legal immigration to the United States.

There’s a good chance this new policy won’t stand up in court, since Congress explicitly passed a law specifying conditions under which people can be denied Adjustment of Status, so it may not be legal for Trump to simply issue a blanket ban. There’s also a chance that Trump’s allies in the “tech right” will frantically call his administration and get them to walk back the new policy.

The reason they’ll be trying to get him to walk it back is that if the new ban does go through, it will devastate much of the U.S. tech industry. The AI industry, which Trump promised to promote — and which is the only thing now keeping the U.S. economy afloat in the face of tariffs and the Iran War — depends crucially on researchers born outside the U.S.:

Source: MacroPolo

All of the biggest U.S. AI companies, and more than half of the top 50, were founded by immigrants, with India and China contributing the most:

Source: IFP

This general pattern holds throughout the entire tech industry. Almost half of unicorn founders are immigrants, with Indians being the biggest contingent:

Meanwhile, Indian immigrant CEOs have done an incredible job at a number of America’s biggest companies.

Who asked for some of America’s top economic and technological contributors to be expelled from the country? The “tech right” certainly didn’t; many of them met the announcement with dismay. Gil Verdon, a semiconductor company founder from Canada who had been a prominent and vocal Trump booster, expressed dismay at the fact that he might now be kicked out of the country:

The American people didn’t want this either. Polls consistently show that very large majorities of Americans across the political spectrum support high-skilled immigration:

Source: EIG

The only people who seemed to be happy with Trump’s new policy were anti-immigration activists on X — rightist types who see immigration as a race war, and want to ban it entirely. It seems highly likely that those online activists — or people who think very much like them — are driving at least a fraction of the administration’s policy.

It’s pretty clear how this happens. Perhaps even more than in the Democratic Party, the GOP is dominated by youngish staffers and think tankers. These people marinate all day in extremist online discourse, and form friendships with extreme right-wing activists who see immigration as a race war rather than as an economic matter or an important part of America’s heritage. Some rightist in the bowels of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services probably got the idea to ban Adjustment of Status and handed it to his higher-ups, who pushed through the policy without thinking too hard about the economic implications.

Welcome to the second Trump administration. If policy isn’t being made by the big man himself — who is growing increasingly erratic and corrupt in his old age — it’s being made by neo-Nazis on X. These are really the only people prepared to take over the MAGA movement once Trump shuffles off the scene, and their influence is growing as Trump’s acumen wanes.

That said, the big man himself still has a little bit of fire in him, and he still enjoys unprecedented support and devotion from his party. Unfortunately, he’s using his remaining vigor to do two main things: A) destroy America’s standing and power in the world, and B) abuse his office to enrich himself, his family, and his most ardent followers.

The Faux-Manchurian Candidate

Donald Trump was not a Manchurian Candidate, created in a secret Russian/Chinese lab to infiltrate and bring down the United States of America. Nor, I believe, is he personally in the pocket of Russian and/or Chinese interests, blackmailed and bribed into weakening his country at the bidding of overseas masters. But sometimes it’s very difficult to distinguish between Trump’s actual actions and what he would do if he were a foreign plant or catspaw.

That’s a very strong statement, but I’m not being hyperbolic for rhetorical effect — I think the facts back it up.

For example, take the war in Iran. Trump launched this war with no immediate provocation or casus belli — a simple opportunistic war of aggression that incinerated whatever shreds of goodwill remained towards the United States among much of the international community.

Trump then proceeded — so far, at least — to lose the war he started. Despite the preemptive strike, and America’s far greater technological capability, Iran reportedly retains most of its arsenal of weaponry:

US intelligence assessments show that Iran retains significant missile capabilities despite repeated claims by the Trump administration that Tehran’s military had been severely weakened, according to a report by The New York Times…The report said intelligence findings compiled in early May showed Iran had regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz. Officials familiar with the assessments told the newspaper that Iran still possesses roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile and mobile launchers…Citing reports from military intelligence agencies, the report stated that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be “partially or fully operational.”

And:

Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments. Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated…The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies…It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term…

Iran has been able to rebuild much faster than expected due to a combination of factors, ranging from support it is receiving from Russia and China to the fact that the US and Israel did not inflict as much damage as the two countries had hoped, one of the sources told CNN.

America’s own stock of weapons, on the other hand, has been dangerously depleted in the conflict, and our defense-industrial base is not managing to rebuild them.

Even as the U.S. has failed to cripple Iran’s military, Iran’s military has succeeded in closing the Strait of Hormuz, sending gasoline prices soaring and causing a significant bump in inflation:

Incapable of defeating Iran on the battlefield, and increasingly wounded by Iran’s economic retaliation, Trump is pushing hard for any sort of face-saving deal that would allow him to exit the conflict quickly. Whatever deal Trump eventually cuts is going to leave Iran in a much stronger position — and American interests in the region — much weaker than before Trump launched his war. Here’s Robert Kagan:

Defeat for the United States, therefore, is not only possible but likely. Here is what defeat looks like.

Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz. The common assumption that, one way or another, the strait will reopen when the crisis ends is unfounded. Iran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante…The power to close or control the flow of ships through the strait is greater and more immediate than the theoretical power of Iran’s nuclear program. This leverage will allow the leaders in Tehran to force nations to lift sanctions and normalize relations or face penalties…

The new status quo in the strait will also occasion a substantial shift in relative power and influence both regionally and globally. In the region, the United States will have proved itself a paper tiger, forcing the Gulf and other Arab states to accommodate Iran…All nations that depend on energy from the Gulf will have to work out their own arrangements with Iran. What choice will they have?…

The American defeat in the Gulf will have broader global ramifications as well. The whole world can see that just a few weeks of war with a second-rank power have reduced American weapons stocks to perilously low levels, with no quick remedy in sight.

This is all, of course, on top of Trump’s other geopolitical blunders:

  • alienating U.S. allies by threatening to invade Greenland

  • attempting to force Ukraine to accept an unfavorable peace settlement with Russia, even as Ukraine was turning the tide of battle

  • alienating India for no reason whatsoever

  • capitulating to China on Taiwan arms sales in exchange for nothing whatsoever

  • various other erratic behaviors that make America clearly less reliable of an ally

As I said, Trump is not a Russian/Chinese plant, but at this point it’s hard to imagine what else a Russian/Chinese plant would even do in order to weaken America’s international standing.

America is ruled by a mafia now

While Trump was losing a war he started, destroying the foundations of American power, and attacking the foundations of American technological dominance, he was also working feverishly to use the presidency to get even richer than he already is. Rolling Stone had a good article detailing the breathtaking scale of the corruption:

Let’s say it plainly: There has never been a president as corrupt as Donald Trump. There is no close second in our history…

Americans just found out that in the first quarter of this year, Trump’s stock portfolio made 3,600 trades — an average of nearly 60 a day…Many of these appear suspiciously timed to benefit from actions approved by the president himself. For example, his Nvidia stock surged after Trump announced the company would be permitted to sell its cutting-edge AI chips to China. Similar suspiciously well-timed calls were made ahead of big government moves involving other companies, from Intel to Palantir to Boeing…

But the apparent insider trading scam being run from within the Oval Office is small change…compared to the self-dealing plunder of $1.8 billion tax-payer dollars being pushed through the DOJ and IRS.

There’s never been a sitting president who sued his own government for $10 billion. That’s because it’s absurdly corrupt. But that’s what Donald Trump did, arguing he had suffered damages from prosecutions pursued before he was reelected…The judge who heard the case convened an independent panel to review the suit, suspecting it might be a scam. Before the case could be dismissed, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche — who had previously served as Trump’s personal lawyer — declared that the bogus suit would be preemptively settled, not for $10 billion, but for the symbolic sum of $1.776 billion, which Trump said will be distributed to…political allies.

This is a shakedown. The president is compelling a Justice Department he controls to redirect money from taxpayers — that’s you — to his most fervent supporters. This slush fund will set off a cash grab among MAGA lawyers and be used to reward partisan fanatics who attacked the U.S. Capitol — and police officers — on his behalf.

If that wasn’t enough of a blatantly illegal use of presidential power, it was revealed that the “settlement” deal included a pledge signed by the acting attorney general that would ensure — in the hysterical all caps of a Trump tweet — that the government would be “FOREVER BARRED and PRECLUDED from prosecuting or pursuing” any tax claims, audits or related prosecutions against Trump, his family or their businesses. This is an attempt to get a permanent get-out-of-jail-free card for the Trump family — a license to steal. [emphasis mine]

So basically, Trump:

  1. Uses the government to interfere with specific companies,

  2. Trades those companies’ stocks in advance, knowing how his own government interference will affect their prices,

  3. Sues his own government for billions and then orders his government to settle the lawsuit,

  4. Gives the billions of dollars of taxpayer money to his own activist thugs and cronies, and

  5. Has the government promise never to prosecute the Trump family.

Rolling Stone is absolutely right: Nothing in U.S. history even comes close to this level of corruption. Trump is simply using the powers of the presidency to extract billions of dollars from stock owners and taxpayers — i.e., from you and me — and to put that money into his own pocket. Compared to this, the famous Teapot Dome land scandal in the 1920s was nothing. The total amount of money involved in Teapot Dome — just a few million of today’s dollars after adjusting for inflation — was tiny compared to the billions Trump is looting.

Anyway, these are all stories just from the past few weeks. In the next few weeks it’ll be something else. This is the most absurdly terrible presidential administration America has ever had.

I know a lot of Americans — including some of my own readers — are still able to convince themselves that The Left Is Worse And Therefore We Must Continue To Support Trump No Matter What. Frankly, I don’t know how those guys do it. But I guess I can take some small solace in the fact that the number of people who think that way is slowly decreasing, as Trump’s parade of outrages and disasters marches on.

Source: Nate Silver

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The Ask

Coffee in hand, I sit down in the Cave. Any Tuesday during the work week, a sip, and I parse the calendar.

1:1 — he’s fine. Status meeting — listen. Staff meeting — read the notes from last week. Exec review — figure out the biggest fire, have a defensible opinion. Wait — Mark Team Review? Who is Mark? And what are we reviewing? Double-click on the meeting — unfamiliar names. No agenda. AND IT’S AN HOUR? I message my Chief of Staff, who is familiar with this morning meeting vetting process. Carolyn responds immediately, “No clue. They run one of the infrastructure teams. We’ve never worked with them.”

AN HOUR. And I have no idea what is happening during this time. My finger hovers over the Decline button when I remember that part of my job involves infrequent but important meetings.

In your regular 1:1s, you’ve sorted out how to communicate. He’s an introvert, and I must pull him out of his shell. She’s operationally focused — which is great — but we must move to strategy and stop crossing things off lists. Your approach is well-known and expected. This is a good 1:1. It’s high-signal, predictable, and a worthy investment. In the infrequent but important meeting, you have no such contract.

But you still go.

Three Assumptions, Three Meetings, Three Asks

Let’s start with three assumptions as you sit down and get comfortable:

  1. There is a good reason that this meeting exists.
  2. There is a good reason that you are in this meeting. You are not a meeting accessory. You are expected to do something because of your attendance. In senior leadership circles, we call this “The Ask.” Someone in this room has an ask specifically for you.
  3. This meeting has a human capable of making sure this ask is delivered. Heads up: this might be you. Stay tuned.

The Promotion Conversation

Let’s start with an easy one. An individual on your team you never meet with schedules thirty minutes. If trust is high, someone (probably their manager) has already given you context (“She’s new and wants to get to know the team”), but let’s assume you have no heads-up. Just thirty minutes and a name.

It’s not the point of this chapter, but the arrival of this mystery is always good news. I mean, they might be quitting, but the fact that you are involved in that possible disaster is good news — you’ll have a chance to react. These meetings are infrequent and vitally important.

Ok, not quitting, but nervous. They keep saying, “I know you’re busy,” and you keep saying, “My job is the team, and that’s you.” Nice job, slick, but what is the good reason? What’s the ask? And who is going to make this happen?

For this meeting, you are the person who needs to get to the ask. No one told you what’s coming, so even though they proactively got time on your calendar and they’ve been chit-chatting for ten minutes trying to connect, what’s the ask?

It’s a simple question, and I’ve used it thousands of times: “How can I help?”

“I’m wondering how you got started as a manager and…” The Ask: I want to become a manager.

“I’ve been working really hard and…” The Ask: I want more compensation.

“Well, I heard it’s important as part of the promotion process to get visibility with your Director…” The Ask: I want someone to finally explain how the promotion process works.

Those are three. There are many more, but the initial point is not the ask; the point is to be the human who wants to help. Leadership, especially senior leadership, gives off this air of otherness, of being busy, of having access to information that others do not. While some of this might be true, in this meeting, you are simply there to help.

The We-Need-You-(Your Team)-For-Something-Only-You-Can-Do-(And We’re Not Quite Sure How This All Works)-Meeting

Harder now. Again, it’d be super if someone took the time to tell you what was going down in this meeting, but as we’ll discover shortly, this miss is part of a larger problem. Larger meeting, more people. The other privilege (curse) of senior leadership is that teams meeting you for the first time spend a lot of time fretting about how to present to you. They ask your managers, “How does she like to be presented to? What questions is she going to ask?” The end result for this meeting is a lot of formality — they want to set the table… just so.

Hour meeting, and we’re twenty minutes in, and it’s all still preamble. It’s an unfamiliar team, and you’ve never worked with them before, so much of this is irrelevant, but a senior leader’s job is the constant gathering of intelligence, so, yeah, you know who many of the folks are and what they build. You knew a lot of this before you met, right?

The core issue in this meeting is one of culture. This team doesn’t know how your team works, builds, or plans, so they are laying it thick. They have an ask, but the issue isn’t figuring out what they want to build; it’s explaining how you can build with them.

It would’ve been great if a program manager, project manager, or other operationally minded human had intercepted this meeting, but they didn’t, so it’s you. You need to explain:

  • How your team builds plans, where you are in the current planning cycle, and when the next planning cycle kicks off.
  • How you and your leadership allocate your precious humans during this cycle — how the hard decisions about what is built are made.
  • How you have historically worked with new teams. What’s worked and what has not.

If this information feels remedial, just imagine how this team feels. You and your team are accountable for an important bit of software or infrastructure that is required by this other team. The problem is, for reasons that should be addressed, you and your team are a black box, so now you’re in this meeting.

Five minutes to go, and heads are nodding, and there is a path forward. My hard-earned advice:

  • You might not get to The Ask. That’s ok. There needs to be another meeting.
  • If you get to The Ask, never say yes. All those good feelings and nodding mean the room is communicating; they don’t mean their Ask is good or aligns with your strategy. That’s the next meeting.

The Shared Fate Meeting

This one is non-obvious, and to understand it, I need to tell you a story. Back at the fruit company, my boss told me, “And don’t forget to meet with Rachel. You’re going to be building with her at some point. Good person to know.”

Of course. First ninety days? Meeting with everyone is my jam, so I meet with Rachel. Smart, a culture carrier, a great conversation. Let’s meet again. We do. And then again. However, after three meetings, my assessment is that we aren’t going to be building anything for years.

I moved my Rachel meetings to my dangerous bucket of nice-to-haves, which means they are the first thing to drop when work gets spicy. Which is always.

My impression is Rachel received the same guidance about the necessity of meeting me, so when I started to reschedule frequently, she Slacked me and gave me a gentle reminder, “Shouldn’t we be meeting?” Of course. Looking forward to it. We don’t.

Almost two years later, during my performance review, my boss informs me that Rachel’s boss is disappointed that we stopped meeting… because we did. We weren’t building anything together, and I was busy with the work ahead of me. My boss, this is a career-limiting move.

A senior leader’s job isn’t just the constant gathering of intelligence; it’s playing the long game. I resume my fortnightly 1:1 with Rachel. Still a good human, culture carrier, and, again, every conversation was valuable. A year after our regular meetings resumed, we randomly discovered two planned programs happening on opposite sides of the company that were about to collide head-on. After a few more meetings, we compared notes and built a joint proposal, making the other proposals irrelevant (those teams did not want to do the work anyway) by asking our teams to work together on the effort.

My boss, after reviewing the proposal, commented, “See?”

See what? Three years ago, two SVPs had a feeling that Team Rands and Team Rachel would accidentally stumble upon a possible huge waste of work performed by unwilling teams who would prefer we didn’t do it?

That’s ridiculous.

It’s Not Ridiculous

I am going to write something, and if you’re a full-time engineer who has never worked as a leader of people, you’re going to be mad. Much of the work of senior leadership is feeling and instinct. You were right to be suspicious. What was The Ask for the Rachel meeting? It wasn’t the eventual joint proposal. The Ask was “Our feeling is these teams need to work closely together — please figure out why.”

My working life would be much easier if the decisions were all well defined and supported by a rich set of verifiable data, but more than I want to admit:

  • I’m staring at a random 1:1 and sitting in a meeting with no agenda, and I’m listening to my gut: What is really going on here?
  • I’m attempting to solve what appears to be a vast, impossible problem and intuit, “You know, Parker and David… they’ll know how to tackle this.” I can’t really explain why.
  • Sitting on my bike, riding to work, the idea will just pop into my head, “Monday. First thing. You’re going to say this ridiculous thing to this person because that’s going to force them to see the situation differently.”

But it’s not guessing. Those feelings came from experiences I’ve had over and over. That instinct has been built by endless trial and error. That meeting? The one with a bad title, but those two attendees I keep hearing about? I should probably go and figure out The Ask.

French nicotine pouch ban is ‘attack on Swedish way of life’

 Is Swedish nicotine like French wine?

The FT has the story:

"French nicotine pouch ban is ‘attack on Swedish way of life’, minister says. Stockholm smoulders over France’s ‘absurd’ penalties of up to five years in prison for cigarette alternatives, by Mari Novik in Strasbourg and Sarah White in Paris

 "A Swedish minister has accused France of mounting “an attack on the Swedish way of living” with its ban on nicotine pouches, setting aflame a single market fight over how governments should regulate smoke-free alternatives to tobacco.

"France last month implemented one of Europe’s strictest bans on the pouches, a flavoured sachet that users tuck under their lip to release nicotine.

"France’s decree goes beyond other EU countries’ prohibitions by banning not just sales but import, possession and use of the pouches. A Swede carrying a tin of pouches legally bought at home could face French penalties of up to five years in prison and a €375,000 fine.
 

“It is as if we would prohibit French baguettes or French wine in Sweden,” Swedish trade minister Benjamin Dousa told the FT. “It is absurd.”

#########

Earlier:

Tuesday, May 19, 2026  WHO reports on the global growth of nicotine pouches

Campo Grande bleg, Brazil

Soon I will be there, in Mato Grosso do Sul, wishing to observe the foundations of Brazil’s burgeoning agricultural export economy, among other reasons.  So what should I do, where should I go, and what should I eat?

The post Campo Grande bleg, Brazil appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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This is my island

Photo of three people in a rural coastal landscape. A woman focuses in the foreground with a man and child behind.

Life on this small, off-the-grid island offers closeness to land and community for those willing, and able, to work for it

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Can ecosystems malfunction?

Photo of a lush green rainforest covered in mist with distant hills under a cloudy sky.

We are told the natural world is ‘breaking down’. But forests don’t work like airplanes or human hearts

- by John Drake

Read on Aeon

May 24, 2026

For a while now, I’ve been hinting that my team was up to something. And tonight, at last, I have an announcement.

Last August, during one of my Politics Chat webcasts, at a time when those trying to impose white nationalism, Christian nationalism, or authoritarianism on our country insisted they were embracing American values, I urged people instead to see those who care about the preservation of democracy and who have worked to expand its values as the people who truly represent America.

That idea appealed strongly, apparently, to the two young women we had recently hired to manage my social media accounts and to produce the historical videos we’ve been putting up. As we kicked around ideas for our own celebration of the nation’s 250th anniversary, they kept coming back to the idea from that Politics Chat: that “we…are America.”

So, to honor the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, we decided to launch a series of one-minute videos that highlight the people, places, and events that have helped to move us toward a more perfect Union.

We designed the videos to emphasize the agency of Americans—mostly everyday Americans—to change the country. Each falls into a category that defines what it means to be an American, including community, democracy, innovation, mobility, civil rights, education, conservation, and creativity.

When we floated the plan, lots of wonderful people all over the country understood the idea immediately and jumped in to help, suggesting topics, writing scripts, offering images, narrating.

We’re launching the project tomorrow with the stories of the Battles of Lexington and Concord, narrated by Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey; the Women’s Armed Services Integration Act, narrated by Representative Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania; the Constitutional Convention (I narrated that one); Ruben Salazar, narrated by journalist Sylvia Salazar; Yellowstone, narrated by former senator Jon Tester of Montana; the AIDS Quilt, narrated by originator Cleve Jones; the Acadians, narrated by historian Jason Herbert; the Erie Canal, narrated by former secretary of transportation Pete Buttigieg; John Peter Zenger and the First Amendment, narrated by journalist Jelani Cobb; the Charter Oak, narrated by Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut; Thomas Paine’s Common Sense, narrated by Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland; and the story of actress and dancer Rita Moreno, narrated by Academy Award winner Ariana DeBose.

For the next several weeks, we will be telling these stories and hundreds more. We hope that you will share them widely to flood social media with the real story of how Americans have always worked, often against seemingly insurmountable odds, to create a more perfect Union.

What has made America great has always been the American people.

Now, as for the past 250 years, “We Are America.”

Notes:

Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250

Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads

Bluesky:

hcrichardson.bsky.social/post/3lws6bsvv6k2v

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Memorial Day

datasette 1.0a30

Release: datasette 1.0a30

The big new feature in this alpha is a new customizable "Jump to..." menu, described in detail in The extensible "Jump to" menu in Datasette 1.0a30 on the Datasette blog. You can try it out by hitting / on latest.datasette.io - it looks like this:

Animated demo - the Jump to menu appears, and as the user types it filters to specific databases and tables and debug options

The new jump_items_sql() plugin hook allows plugins to add their own items to the set that's searched by the plugin.

Tags: projects, datasette, annotated-release-notes

datasette-agent 0.1a4

Release: datasette-agent 0.1a4

Taking advantage of the new makeJumpSections() JavaScript plugin hook added in Datasette 1.0a30, datasette-agent now presents this "Start a new agent chat" interface as part of the Jump to menu, any time you hit /:

Animated demo - this time the demo starts on agent.datasette.io and when the menu opens it has a new Start chat box below the search box - entering 'count entries' and hitting the button causes it to start an agent conversation that counts the number of entries and returns 3300.

You can try this out by signing into agent.datasette.io using your GitHub account.

Tags: datasette, datasette-agent

The carousel trade (arbitrage)

Imagine two companies which are secretly controlled by the same people. If company A imported some phones, then sold them to company B, it charged VAT on the deal. If company B then exported the phones, it reclaimed — from the government — the VAT it had paid to company A. the integrity of the VAT system depends on the two totals balancing out. The money that A pays in is equl to the money that B takes back. The scam lay in A disappearing and not handing over the money it owed, but B till claiming it. The hidden owners of the two firms therefore earned for themselves 17.5 per cent (the rate at which VAT was then charged) of the value of the shipment of the phones. The more phones you sold to yourself, the more money you made.

That is John Lanchester in the LRB, citing Oliver Bullough’s Everybody Loves Our Dollars: How Money Laundering Won.

The post The carousel trade (arbitrage) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Join the dots

Four laser beams shine across the magnificent Southern sky in today’s Picture of the Week. Glowing beads of light, one on each beam, are created by a thin layer of clouds crossing the path of the lasers and hint at the source of these beams. Emitted by the four Unit Telescopes (UTs) of ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT), here working together as part of the VLT Interferometer (VLTI), the shape of the four bright spots mirrors the layout of the UTs. But these spots were a happy accident caused by clouds that happened to be in the way — the lasers themselves target a much higher layer in our atmosphere.

As of November 2025, all four UTs are equipped with lasers, as part of a series of significant upgrades to the VLTI named GRAVITY+. Each laser creates an artificial “star”, 90 kilometres above the Earth’s surface, used to detect how the moving atmosphere distorts incoming light. This enables a telescope to make real-time corrections that cancel out the atmosphere’s blurring effect. “Unblurred” light from the four UTs can then be combined to make detailed observations of distant cosmic objects. This upgrade has unlocked the entire Southern sky to the VLTI by allowing the system to observe much fainter objects than before.

In this image the telescopes, and the lasers, are pointing to the centre of our galaxy, the region around the supermassive black hole Sagittarius A*. If you look closely at the apex of the laser triangle you may be able to discern the four tiny artificial stars created by the beams. Deeper observations at the heart of the Milky Way are a key science motivation for GRAVITY+, in particular to understand the properties of our supermassive black hole.

For me, this image is an accomplishment,” says photographer and ESO astronomer Anthony Berdeu, who has worked on the GRAVITY+ project since 2022. “These were intense, challenging but fascinating years where I had the chance to work with great and talented people in the consortium and at ESO,” he reflects. After years of hard work implementing the upgrades, “the first night the lasers were shined to point at the galactic centre, I had to be on the VLT platform to take a picture.” His photograph captures not just the four lasers — appearing to pierce the dark patch where cosmic dust clouds mask the galactic centre — but also the bright band of the Milky Way to the lower right and the Lagoon and Trifid nebulae (both around 5000 light years away) to the left. Additionally, Berdeu got a “nice surprise” when passing thin clouds intercepted the lasers, producing an outline of the UTs in gold spots, “adding some drama to the scene.”

Links

An Early “Decoration Day” Celebration

A small oval is visible within a green rectangular park in Charleston, South Carolina.
Signs of the racetrack where an early “Decoration Day” event was held are still visible in this image captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on April 24, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

The origins of Memorial Day lie in the U.S. Civil War, a conflict that led to the deaths of nearly 700,000 Americans. By the waning days of the war, makeshift military cemeteries had sprung up throughout the country, but especially in the South and Mid-Atlantic, where much of the fighting occurred. 

By the time the leader of the veterans’ group Grand Army of the Republic declared May 30, 1868, as “Decoration Day”—a day for “strewing with flowers or otherwise decorating the graves of comrades who died in the defense of their country”—informal memorials and commemorative events were already happening.

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs notes that at least 25 places played a role in the early years of the holiday, including Columbus, Mississippi; Macon, Georgia; Columbus, Georgia; Richmond, Virginia; Boalsburg, Pennsylvania; and Carbondale, Illinois.

One of the earliest and largest ceremonies documented by historians occurred in Charleston, South Carolina. Confederate control of the badly damaged city had ended in February 1865, and Union troops had emancipated thousands of people there. Among the first tasks taken on was ensuring a proper burial for 257 soldiers found in mass graves near a racetrack at the Washington Race Course and Jockey Club, which had been used as a prison camp during the war.

After these soldiers had been re-interred in a new cemetery nearby, a crowd of roughly 10,000 people, including freedmen, missionaries, teachers, and soldiers, assembled at the racetrack and held a parade on May 1, 1865. The day featured thousands of schoolchildren carrying armloads of roses, women bearing flowers and wreaths, double-time marches by troops, choir performances of the “Star-Spangled Banner,” and Bible recitations by local ministers.

Much has changed in Charleston since the Civil War. The city has been rebuilt, and it has grown from a pre-war population of 40,000 to 160,000 today. Yet signs of the racetrack in what is now Hampton Park, where the early memorial event took place, remain visible—even to a sensor orbiting Earth on Landsat 9 (above).

In 1968, the federal government declared Memorial Day an official national holiday with the Uniform Monday Holiday Act, which moved Decoration Day celebrations from May 30 to the last Monday in May. This act followed a congressional resolution in 1966 that recognized a century of Memorial Day events in Waterloo, New York, acknowledging its claim as the “birthplace” of Memorial Day in honor of a commemorative event held there on May 5, 1866.

Densely developed parts of the city appear gray while wakes from boats draw lines through the blue-brown waters of Charleston Harbor.
Hampton Park is visible just north of downtown Charleston in this image captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on April 24, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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The post An Early “Decoration Day” Celebration appeared first on NASA Science.

Emergent Ventures winners, 54th cohort

Kenny Guo, Krish Chhajer, Luthira Abeykoon Mudiyansela, Toronto, quantum computing.

Jolie Gan, Calgary/SF, a publication on science and meta-science.

Hudson Mitchell-Pullman, 16, San Diego, how users interact with LLMs to learn.

Adnan Manna, 17, Amman, Jordan, finding exoplanets.

Heloise Hoffman, Stanford, biomedical research to cure her own rare disease.

M.F. Libano-Monteiro, Portugal/LSE, economics education through video.

Scott Ellis, Mississauga, Ontario, making movies with AI.

Adrian Martinez, 17, Mission Viejo, CA, math, education.

Aadil Ali, San Francisco, biographies of young achievers.

Chandler Reilly, Denver, Substack on Denver and its economics.

Jeremy Kingsley, London, AI, podcasting and Substack.

Michelle Lin, 15, Mclean, VA, curved-surface stitching on deformable materials, and algorithms.

Brunella Tipismana, general career support, writing, Peru/New Haven/NYC.

Theo Cross-Zamirski, Cambridge, UK, platform to power math education.

Beatrice Erkers, Stockholm, progress ideas in Sweden.

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Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image






Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image






Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image





The upper galaxy might be more photogenic, but the lower galaxy is more unusual. The upper galaxy might be more photogenic, but the lower galaxy is more unusual.


WorkOS: ‘Agents Need Context. Ship the Integrations That Give It to Them.’

My thanks to WorkOS for once again sponsoring DF last week. The context that actually matters isn’t in your database. It’s in the tools your users live in every day. Multi-stage agents stall the moment they hit a step they can’t see. And every missing integration is a different OAuth flow, a different token lifecycle, weeks of plumbing before the agent reads a single record.

WorkOS Pipes connects your agent to the tools your users live in. Pre-built connectors for GitHub, Slack, Salesforce, Google Drive, and more. Pipes handles OAuth, token refresh, and credential storage. You call the real provider API with a fresh token, every time. Your agent pulls context at every step, for as long as the task runs.

Give your agent context.

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