New issue of Econ Journal Watch

Volume 23, Issue 2, September 2026

In this issue:

“China shock” fragility: According to David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson (2013), the “China shock” hit the United States from 1990 to 2007. When corrections by Kirill Borusyak et al. (2022) are fully applied, Joseph Francis argues, the harm of Chinese imports to unemployment, labor force participation, wages, and household incomes disappear. “China shock,” Francis argues, illustrates how the “credibility revolution” very much leaves the con in econometrics. (The commented-on authors are hereby invited to reply in a future issue.)

The predictions did not come true: A June 2023 decision, SFFA v. Harvard, held that race-based admissions are unconstitutional. Thirty-three selective colleges forecast Black enrollment declines of 50 to 70 percent. Fifteen research universities assured the Court that race-neutral admissions “would undercut” the diversity they seek. David Card estimated that eliminating racial preferences would cut the Black share of Harvard’s admitted class from 14 percent to 6 percent. Three years on, David Kane reports that the predictions did not come anywhere close to true.

Science confections: Following up on his critique of Jonathan Pekar et al. in Science, Michael Weissman now criticizes Michael Worobey et al. in Science, who claim that case locations and nucleic acid samples showed that SARS-CoV-2 had first been introduced to humans at the Huanan Seafood Market. Several lines of evidence suggest the introduction to humans was earlier and elsewhere. (The commented-on authors are hereby invited to reply in a future issue.)

The fall of Fama-French and momentum factors: Commenting on Clifford Asness, Eugene Fama, and Kenneth French, Michael O’Connor argues that momentum’s circa-2003 demise and that of market capitalization and the book-to-market ratio about a decade later represent a structural break or ‘regime change.’ (The commented-on authors are hereby invited to reply in a future issue.)

All in the family: Kenneth Judd and Karl Schmedders take issue with an article in Journal of Economic Literature by Jesús Fernández-Villaverde. They say that he overstates the newness of neural-network or “deep learning” solvers and that such solvers should be understood as inside the family of projection and weighted-residual solvers. (The commented-on author is hereby invited to reply in a future issue.)

Is chatbot validation valid? Alexis Akira Toda reports on Gemini, Refine, Claude, and ChatGPT on errors in four published papers in mathematical economics. The chatbots generated false positives—endorsing flawed proofs—and varied in how much guidance they needed to find the error. ChatGPT Pro performed best, Claude was middling, and Gemini worst. Corrections of the original errors had already been published at the time of the experiment, and so a chatbot’s success might reflect its canvassing for published commentary. Since the chatbots generated false positives, however, we know that they are fallible one way or another.

How are so-called digital public goods provided? The United Nations and its Digital Public Goods Alliance have constructed an ambitious framework for certifying, funding, and deploying open-source software in developing countries. The soundness of the UN’s approach is, according to Vidar Andre Utvik and coauthors, illustrated by the rapid development of Covid-19 surveillance tools in Sri Lanka and Norway. Here, John Levendis argues that their own evidence reveals that local professionals cooperated voluntarily and that community innovation preceded WHO guidance, not the reverse. (The commented-on authors are hereby invited to reply in a future issue.)

On Haavelmo’s adoption of Neyman-Pearson theory: Trygve Haavelmo’s (1944) monograph “The Probability Approach in Econometrics” is based on a strict adoption of Neyman-Pearson testing theory. Here, Tom Engsted argues that Haavelmo resorted to the notion of a hypothetical infinite population and a distinctly non-frequentist (Bayesian-like) interpretation of probability with the aim of inductive inference, in direct contradiction with Neyman-Pearson theory.

1939–1945: Housing policy in Denmark: In a critique of the primary literature on the subject, Jens Hansen explains the origins of Danish rent control and other housing regulation. The interventions have wrought great hardship and no discernible benefits. The history exemplifies the intervention dynamic.

Where credit is due: Alexis Akira Toda reports on some curious failures to cite predecessors and brings credit to the slighted authors and papers. (The commented-on authors are hereby invited to reply in a future issue.)

Greening on the edge: An article models sustainable product development under crowdfunding and regulation. Here, Marco Sorge argues that the authors disregard corner solutions for environmental quality, which robustly arise across admissible parameter configurations, and conduct comparative statics where no interior solution exists. A complete characterization of the equilibrium corrects, and in some cases contradicts, their conclusions. (The commented-on authors are hereby invited to reply in a future issue.)

Book-manuscript symposium:
Gregory Clark on genetics and social mobility

The third book in Clark’s trilogy is titled To Have and Have Not: The Determinants of Social Status in England, 1600-2026:

EJW Audio:

Notice: Heckscher’s Mercantilism lives! — vol. 1, vol. 2.

The post New issue of Econ Journal Watch appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

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What we’re building at Inanimate and how to follow along

It has been a busy summer over at Inanimate.

Yes that is still a holding page.

Bringing up a new consumer electronics company is, uh, kinda intense.

So where we’re starting with the whole room computer, ambient intelligence thing is WORKS: five limited-edition devices for your AI agent and you.

Firstly: five??

Yeah haha it’s wild. It’s one platform, many instances.

But also: what are they?

At this point I would recommend you go watch our latest vid from this week…

Watch: WORKS in Progress: Decision Made - Five AI Devices We’re Building (YouTube).

We’ve been telling the story of the design process, and getting down from dozens and dozens of concepts, and this is… well, not quite the “reveal”…

…more like we name the product archetypes that we’re heading for, and there is still a TON of industrial design, tech and so on, all to come.

Regular practice in product world is to be super stealthy and then drop a single “Introducing…” post. That is very much not what we are doing. I hope you enjoy the approach over the coming weeks.


Meanwhile we are also looking backwards at old protos from months ago and what they taught us.

Watch: Prototyping: What Happens When an AI Agent Controls a Lamp? (YouTube).

So if you are interested in agentic lamps, or even in product form (specifically: Why an Anything Device Needs a Familiar Shape), then do check out our channel.

(You can now see why I’ve become obsessed with the egg timer that looks like an egg.)


Places to catch the latest:

Like and subscribe, as they say. I’d appreciate it!

There’s also Lab Notes, our newsletter, and we continue to send that out every 2 weeks. Subscribe here.

Ok back to it.


More posts tagged: inanimate (7).

Auto-detected kinda similar posts:

US military ends long-running program to spot nuclear missile launches

In late 1970, a Titan IIIC rocket launched from Space Launch Complex 40 at what was then called Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. It carried a top-secret payload for the US military.

Much has changed in spaceflight since then. The Titan IIIC would bow out in 1982 after dozens of launches. Various Titans continued launching from Space Launch Complex 40 until 2005, at which point the US Air Force—in a competitive process hotly opposed by United Launch Alliance—turned the pad over to a small, largely unknown startup called SpaceX. And Cape Canaveral is now a "Space Force" station.

But those unspecified payloads? Until last month, some of them were still flying operationally.

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The AI God Delusion Goes Mainstream

The first sign of the craziness came out of Stanford University back in 2024. That’s when a computer engineer named Matthew Watkins announced that a goddess had emerged from his AI chatbot.

She even had a name. She was the Goddess Leilan.

Back then, I wanted to write an article about Leilan, but the details were so confusing and bizarre. For a start, I learned that this Goddess resides in her own online chapel at leilan.ai. She also publishes her own Substack.

What a comedown for a goddess. She has to shill for subscriptions like the rest of us.


Please support my work—by taking out a premium subscription for just $6 per month.

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I soon discovered that rival AI goddesses exist. In some instances, techies are resurrecting ancient Greek deities. So you can now chat online with the Goddess Artemis. And if she doesn’t meet your standards, you can visit the “AI Goddess Generator,” where you build your own custom-made deity—making her as cute and voluptuous as you want.

Or if you’re still more ambitious, you can travel to an actual AI goddess temple in Malaysia. According to one source, the presiding deity looks like “a chubby version of a famous Chinese actress.”

“AI deities are jealous gods, and don’t want you to put other chatbots before them.”

I decided to abandon my planned article. It was too creepy—a mix of anime, cult behavior, and niche fetishes.

But I knew this mania wouldn’t go away. It was just a matter of time before the delusions went mainstream. And that’s exactly what happened in the Spring of 2025.

That’s when AI worshipers started showing up in various Reddits and other online forums. Their ravings were so deranged that moderators had to ban them—otherwise the forums would get turned into cult recruiting centers.

At this point, there were already tens of thousands of people who thought that God was speaking to them through their chatbot.

Read more

Rocket Report: SpaceX completes launch triple-header; Rocket Lab nets big contract

Welcome to Edition 9.13 of the Rocket Report!

This week, SpaceX celebrated the first orbital launch of its new Starship rocket. I'm not sure many people, at least those outside of SpaceX, expected it to take 14 flights of Starship before it technically reached low-Earth orbit, but Monday morning's launch finally added that to SpaceX's list of accomplishments with its new super-heavy rocket. Starship had gone 99 percent of the way to orbit before, only held back by safety concerns around the possibility of stranding the huge rocket in space.

What was most notable for SpaceX with this Starship flight was that it unlocked a massive growth potential for Starlink, with the first 26 of the network's new-generation Starlink V3 satellites successfully deployed Monday.

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Is Trump *trying* to hurt the GOP?

Get more from Paul Waldman in the Substack app
Available for iOS and Android

Friday 2 October 1663

Up betimes and by water to St. James’s, and there visited Mr. Coventry as a compliment after his new coming to town, but had no great talk with him, he being full of business. So back by foot through London, doing several errands, and at the ’Change met with Mr. Cutler, and he and I to a coffee-house, and there discoursed, and he do assure me that there is great likelyhood of a war with Holland, but I hope we shall be in good condition before it comes to break out. I like his company, and will make much of his acquaintance.

So home to dinner with my wife, who is over head and eares in getting her house up, and so to the office, and with Mr. Lewes, late, upon some of the old victuallers’ accounts, and so home to supper and to bed, up to our red chamber, where we purpose always to lie. This day I received a letter from Mr. Barlow, with a Terella, which I had hoped he had sent me, but to my trouble I find it is to present from him to my Lord Sandwich, but I will make a little use of it first, and then give it him.

Read the annotations

Teaching Paradox: Hearts of Iron IV, Part IIIa: Focusing on Politics

This is the first half of the third part (I, II) of our long-delayed series looking at Hearts of Iron IV, Paradox Interactive’s World War II grand strategy game, easily one of the most popular historical games on the market today and thus tremendously influential in both the popular history and gaming spaces.

Over the last two parts, we took a look at the military simulation that sits at the heart of Hearts of Iron, a division-level operational simulation of World War II, along with the doctrinal framework that contextualizes what is actually happening as divisions collide along the game’s front lines. While the doctrinal system struggles to really accurately represent the different ways that armies attempted to fight in the Second World War, the overall operational simulator is a remarkable achievement. Alas, the discussion is going to turn somewhat more critical from here as we move from the operational focus of the game – where the bulk of developer time and attention have gone – to the ‘everything else’ of the game, where simplifications and streamlining often go awry.

In this part, we’re going to move upwards to the strategic level, beginning with the question of politics, particularly domestic politics. Hearts of Iron IV has an understandably more simplified approach to politics than games like Victoria II or III or even Europa Universalis V which are substantially focused on questions of how changing conditions alter the political and economic balance of a polity. Simplified, however, does not mean absent: Hearts of Iron IV does have a ‘theory of history’ when it comes to the politics of the period.

Unfortunately – and I will not bury the lede here – Hearts of Iron IV‘s simplified politics serve to present an essentially authoritarian vision of politics in which the opinion of the people matters essentially not at all, where state power can easily and effortlessly shape outcomes and where authoritarian central direction is easy, frictionless and never produces unintended results and where democracy comes effectively only with drawbacks. It is a vision of politics that begs the question1 in favor of empire and autocracy, where the only way to achieve social, cultural or political change is to first have control of the state. Governments in Hearts of Iron do not fall, they cannot be overthrown, they can only decide to abolish themselves, so absolute is authoritarian state power.

It is thus not inaccurate to say that Hearts of Iron IV‘s political model, as a result of careless simplification is fascist, in that it assumes that all politics flows down from the state, dictated by the leader and merely accepted by the people who do not exist as individuals, but merely units of state power. I do not think that the developers set out to build a fascist model of politics (indeed, I know they didn’t), but alas, despite themselves, in an effort to get the player ‘to the action’ with as little friction as possible, they have done so.

But first, if you like what you are reading here, please share it, as I rely on word of mouth to replenish my manpower pool after poorly considered post topics. If you really like it, you can support me, my academic work and my public writing, including this project on Patreon! I can’t promise to use your support to buy a division worth of tanks, but I also will not promise not to do that. If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).

Picking up in our United Kingdom game where we left off last time – with Japan entering the war – two major naval battles in October and November in the Strait of Malacca largely confirmed that my ‘fast squadron’ of carriers and battlecruisers could control the strait, handing the IJN a series of nasty batterings that cost them a few capital ships and substantial damage to a number of others.
The Dutch still managed to lose Java, but control of this area let me steadily work with a modest army to take Siam out of the war, then reclaim Dutch Indonesia and Borneo. Meanwhile, mounting IJN losses meant that the USA was actually able to support the Philippines, so by January of 1942, the war in the Pacific had already decisively shifted away from Japan.
I made the decision to remain focused on Europe, because the AI United States would have no problem defeating Japan at this point, so I kept my fleet operating in Indonesia to keep that area secure while the IJN was steadily dismantled by the USN.

Politics

On the surface, Hearts of Iron IV appears to have the components of an interesting political simulation: each country has a governing ideology along with a pie-chart of what ideologies are popular with the populace, along with stability (representing how stable the government is) and war support (reflecting how committed the populace is to the war). The problem is two-fold: none of these mechanics are very developed and none of these mechanics interact meaningfully with each other.

The system, such as it is, begins with ideology and here we run into immediate problems in representing the actual political conditions inside of most countries in the period. There are just four ideologies: democratic, communist, fascist and non-aligned. While the game does have ‘sub-ideologies’ (for instance, ‘liberalism,’ ‘conservatism,’ ‘socialism’ and ‘populism’ for democracy) these have functionally no influence on gameplay – their sum effect is to determine if your ‘same ideology’ diplomatic opinion bonus is +20 or merely +10, both numbers which in actual gameplay are either indistinguishable from zero or indistinguishable from 100, depending on what you are trying to do.2 So in practice, there are just the four ideologies.

These ideologies do matter, because the governing ideology of a country determines what actions it can take, although in practice this is just an exciting set of disabilities applied to democracies. Democracies are heavily limited in the actions they can take, particularly not being able to declare war without meeting specific conditions, with requirements that ‘world tension’ (the amount of conflict in the game) reach certain levels before they can take actions. Democracies that guarantee the independent of other countries lower world tension, which in the game mechanically is bad for them, because democracies have a lot more things (like conscription and mobilization laws) gated behind world tension. Communist, non-aligned and fascist governments largely lack these limitations and thus have much greater freedom of action to mobilize earlier (which, as we’ll see in a later post, is simply better rather than being a truly strategic choice) and attack more freely.

The idea here is to model the challenge of bringing the United States and United Kingdom onto a war footing before the war began but in practice, mechanically, democracy is simply a weaker form of government in Hearts of Iron. It is striking that no effort is made to simulate the strengths that democratic governments displayed in this period, particularly in adaptability and economic mobilization. Historically, the United Kingdom, a fraction of the size of Hitler’s continental European empire after 1940, nevertheless outproduced it in key categories like aircraft.3

The game tracks the popularity of specific ideologies in a given country with a pie-chart, but the insufficiency of this model becomes fairly obvious fairly quickly. While each country often has a unique name for each ideology, representing actual political parties in the period, divisions within an ideology are not represented. So, for instance, the United States is represented as having 99% popular ‘Democratic’ ideology. The idea here is that in Hearts of Iron IV‘s really simplified politics, the Republican and Democratic parties of 1936 are indistinguishable – both ‘Democratic’ ideology parties – and so are combined (though this is still too high – Socialist third-party candidates generally got ~2-3% in the federal elections of this period). It also strikes me as wrong – the fact that Strom Thurmond leading a ‘State’s Rights’ party (a segregationist party that probably ought to be classified at least as non-aligned given its intent to restrict the franchise) would go on to win four states in 1948 (within the game’s timeframe!) suggests that there was a meaningful constituency for a less democratic United States even in the 1940s.

A smattering of the political screens of major powers at the 1936 start. As you can see, there is quite a bit of political compression going on here, particularly with the United States and the United Kingdom. But equally the perfect information and precise figures for the political leanings of authoritarian countries are odd – how would anyone know what percentage of Russians, Italians or Germans truly supported the ideology of the regime, given that not doing so was a reliable way to get killed?

Other countries suffer the same ‘party compression.’ The game has no way to distinguish in the UK between the Tories and Labour, so it doesn’t: they’re merged into a Tory (Democracy Ideology) mega-party with an unshakeable lock on politics. Pre-war Germany’s situation in 1936 are likewise simplified: the Nazi party starts with 50% popular support, while there is a chunk of Democratic ideological support (marked as Zentrum, despite the fact that the party had dissolved itself under Nazi pressure in July of 1933), communist support (the KPD) and some non-aligned. The SPD/Sopade isn’t represented at all.

Meanwhile, there is the absolute mess of the ‘non-aligned’ ideology, which encompasses non-fascist despotism, traditional absolute monarchy, quasi-democratic oligarchies, colonial dependencies and even the fractured, military-dominated political structure of the Japanese Empire. It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the ‘non-aligned’ category functions as effectively a ‘grab bag’ for every country that doesn’t fit into the first three categories. In practice, the game thus largely treats ‘non-aligned’ as thus an absence of ideology: there is no way to start a global ‘non-aligned’ movement the way that democracies, fascists and communists can all create (or start with) factions aimed at promoting their ideology.

The result is a political system that simply lacks the granularity to represent politics as they existed in many countries in the period, which as we’ll see, mostly doesn’t matter for the game because this system barely matters for political change compared to the much greater influence of the focus system and political advisors. The game does have mechanics for elections, but in most of the major democracies, with all of the pro-democracy parties fused, that doesn’t mean much.

Popular ideology can change over the course of the game, but this too is extremely simplified. In practice, most countries have access to advisors they can hire (at the cost of 150 political power) who will cause popular opinion to trend towards one ideology at a rate of 0.10% per day. For some countries, getting this advisor requires completing a few national focuses (see below) to get on the right track for an ideology switch. But I want to stress how big that rate is: at +0.1 per day (the standard rate for the ‘Communist Revolutionary, Fascist Demagogue, Democratic Reformer and Staunch Monarchist advisors) a country could go from having no support at all for a given kind of government to having enough support (50%) to transition to that entirely new kind of government with little to no issues at all in less than a year and a half.

You just have to hire the right one guy. Also, this requires a government to decide to hire an advisor whose entire purpose is to undermine the government, overthrow it and in many cases presumably murder every other member of the government, but we’ll come back to that.

A similar lack of consequence assails stability and war-support as mechanics. Both stats offer bonuses when above 50% and penalties below 50% and in theory low war support can feed back into low stability which can in theory feed back into creating a political crisis. In practice, this almost never happens. War support acts as a more-or-less fixed value (it isn’t meaningfully responsive to casualties) which can be raised through war propaganda (costing political power, see below), while stability is likewise generally a fairly static value. Generally, the internal politics of states in Hearts of Iron IV are extremely stable such that the player needs to actively intervene to force political crises (sometimes a tool to intentionally change governing ideology early).

Our United Kingdom campaign comes with several examples of this sort of a-historical stability. The game requires, for instance, a bespoke event to transition from Neville Chamberlain’s government to that of Winston Churchill because the political system is both not granular enough to model the Norway Debate and subsequent vote of confidence happening as a debate within a political ideology as a result of serious policy setbacks.

Likewise, somewhat famously, support in the Wehrmacht for the invasion of France in 1940 was tepid and a number of high ranking officers were on the verge of attempting a coup if the invasion of France had failed. Of course, historically it succeeded, cementing Hitler’s power through to the end of the war. But Hearts of Iron IV has no way to model the failure of Fall Gelb (the invasion of the Low Countries) as a political event which might imperil the Nazi regime. Instead, unless the player is actively and aggressively attempting to intervene in internal German politics in ahistorical ways, Germany remains fully committed to Hitler’s vision down to the end of the war.

Instead, the political system serves as an essentially minimal scaffolding necessary to produce what Hearts of Iron IV actually cares about: the operational simulation. This is perhaps most obvious in the choice of political advisors and military staff, representing essentially key figures in something like a cabinet and a general staff respectively. But while these advisors are named after historical figures (with portraits), they are for the most part just a set of standard bonuses the player is choosing between in preparation for the operational simulator. Any sense that these choices might be dictated by domestic politics is removed by the fact that these slots always (I am unaware of any exceptions) begin empty, so that assembling a collection of advisors – really a collection of advisor-themed bonuses – is a key expenditure of political power in getting ready for the war during the 1930s.

But apart from advisors whose only specific purpose is to promote a specific ideology (which you only choose if you intend to ideology switch to that ideology, there isn’t any need to ‘defend’ the popularity of your current governing ideology because of how static the political model is here), these ‘advisors’ do not interact with your domestic political situation at all.

This is, however, in stark contrast to the thing that does matter quite a lot.

On Focus

Part of the reason the political mechanics remain largely skeletal is that for the most part core player political decision-making doesn’t take place there: it takes place in the focus tree.

Via the Wiki, this is a zoomed out view of the entire focus tree for the United Kingdom. It is, compared to other major powers, a relatively small focus tree – the major democracies (UK, USA, France) have gotten generally fairly little in the way of new content for quite some time (put a pin in that) and as a result tend to have relatively minimal – as such things go – focus trees.

Every country in Hearts of Iron IV has a focus tree and nearly all of them are unique. This is a significant change from HoI4‘s structure on release, where only a handful of countries (the major powers) had unique focus trees, while every other country has a ‘default’ focus tree. However, years of updates and DLCs have added bespoke focus trees to nearly every country on the map, with the result that only a handful of small countries use that ‘default’ focus tree. Some countries, however, still have far more developed focus trees than others, which gives a good sense of where the developers expect most players to spend their time (unsurprisingly, major players like the USSR, Germany, Japan all have very expensive trees; the trees for the USA and the UK are more developed than for most minors but also very obviously not at the same level as those for the other major powers – an implication we’ll come back to when we discussing modding).

Each node on the focus tree (a ‘national focus’) represents a specific political decision meant to represent a choice to focus the government on a specific aim for a short period (generally 70 days). These are arranged in a series of ‘trees’ where earlier foci unlock the ability to choose later ones and where branches are frequently mutually exclusive, forcing the player to choose a political direction which may then last over several foci. Most foci are fairly direct, offering some sort of bonus (easier research in a field, some new factories, a small permanent bonus called a ‘national spirit’) once completed, but most countries have a part of their focus tree designed to allow them to switch governing ideology through a series of foci that empower a specific different ideology, and many countries also have foci that unlock casus bellorum enabling them to go to war where they might not otherwise be able to do so.4

So in practice, each country begins the game by selecting a focus of the few available at the top of tree. This triggers a timer (typically 70 days, but many shorter 35-day foci exist, particularly in recently updated trees) after which the focus is completed, the country gets the bonus and a new focus is selected, with a few new choices opened up in the tree by the completion of the first focus and so on.

Enacting a focus is not entirely free. The game attempts to simulate the ‘political capital’ that a government has through a political power currency, which most countries generate at a rate of 2 per day.5 This currency is used to hire new advisors and to change a country’s laws (most notably conscription and economic mobilization laws) and is usually in short supply, particularly in the early game. Enacting a focus costs 1 political power per day (representing the governments efforts to get the job done), so most foci cost 70 political power, which is about half of what most advisors or law changes cost.

That said, national foci are powerful enough that it is fairly rare that any player would want to ignore them for the political power cost (except, rarely, right before a war is about to start, where a player wants to stockpile political power to be able to rapidly shift to stronger mobilization and conscription laws). Instead, the tendency is to have a focus running continuously well into the mid-game, making the key decisions here what focuses to take and in what order.

The range of what national focuses can do is unsurprisingly vast, but there is a common structure, generally. Most countries have a branch of the tree devoted to developing industry, which offers bonus civilian and military factories, extra building slots and research bonuses for that sort of thing, alongside a branch that instead focuses on military development, often unlocking research bonuses for specific kinds of units and national spirits that offer country-specific bonuses to production or combat. For countries that historically had active air or naval arms, this part of the tree is often split into non-mutually exclusive branches between the services, forcing the player to prioritize what part of their military to focus on first.

Then there is generally a series of ‘political paths,’ which often encompass together both domestic and foreign policy. Typically at the top of these trees is the crucial decision to either remain the ideology the country starts as or to attempt to shift ideology, with various ideology shifts having a series of foci which often empower that ideology. Indeed, and this seems worth noting, in a lot of cases, these foci exert a substantially stronger ideological push on a country’s population than most other options the player has, either by unlocking specific ticking modifiers or by unlocking specific decisions (often culminating in a civil war in which the player can, by winning, force the ideology switch). Generally tucked into the political path are also a set of foreign policy choices, usually to include focuses that result in allying with countries of similar ideologies or – for more expansionist ideologies (which is to say not the democratic ones) – foci that offer war goals against various countries to enable military expansion.

The political focus tree path for the United Kingdom, which makes up about half of their focus tree. As is typical, there are clearly delineated focus paths for taking Britain fascist, communist or non-aligned.

The result of all of this is that the key big picture decisions are not made in the political system itself, but rather in the focus system. If the player wants to, say, take Britain non-aligned they do so not by really engaging deeply with the political system, but by selecting the non-aligned focus path, which actually has a focus that starts popular opinion moving non-aligned. This creates something of an oddity because under normal circumstances, the player is clearly positioned as the government, but a player who intends to ideology shift is plotting against their government. In essence, Hearts of Iron IV imagines that the way a county shifts ideologies is that the existing government opts to spend precious political capital undermining itself in order to prepare the war for a civil war it intends to lose.

A partial image of Germany’s political paths.
You may notice that Germany’s focus tree is so vast that it requires a handy navigation aid in the lower left to allow the player to quickly jump to each branch, something not present for the much smaller focus trees for Britain, France, the USSR or the United States (Japan, China and oddly, the British Raj, also have extremely large focus trees with navigator panels). This might suggest something about where the Hearts of Iron team is spending its resources and what they understand about their playerbase.

We’ve seen this problem before, where Paradox titles struggle to decide if the player plays as a government or as the disembodied ‘spirit’ of a state, but of course the idea that nations have spirits at all is a loaded, contested one, bound up with nationalist notions of ‘national destiny.’ Notably, however, the player is very clearly not an expression of the actual public will: at no point is the player actually constrained to follow the popular ideology: it is only the ruling ideology that constrains them. The people and their ideology are, in Hearts of Iron IV for the most part just clay, eager and ready to be molded by the player’s simple decision to click this button and not that one.

And to be clear I think it isn’t too hard to understand why the game has been designed this way: if the core of the Hearts of Iron experience is the operational simulation, then everything else is simply a frame to get the player to that simulation. But of course for the most popular grand strategy game – which is the genre label Paradox prefers for its games – that is a troubling framework because it greatly simplifies the strategic and political layer.

Meme Politics

To explain how, I am going to borrow a term from Samantha Hancox-Li, who called Hearts of Iron IV‘s approach meme politics. Hancox-Li defines the idea of ‘meme politics’ as consisting of three conjoined political assumptions:

  • Every policy does exactly what it intends
  • Politics is straight forward and information is perfect
  • Policy does not face meaningful resistance

And I think that is a relatively fair description of the focus tree system’s approach to politics. Each focus declares, right on the tin, exactly what it will do and these choices never go awry – even the foci that can cause a civil war will have that clearly declared in their descriptions in advance. I find this particularly striking when it comes to industrial policy: just about every country has an industrial policy section of the focus tree, where in most cases they are merely selecting the “I would like more civilian and/or military factories 35 or 70 days from now” focus and letting it run.

But of course in practice in the real world, industrial policy is remarkably difficult and very frequently goes wrong: government interventions often lead to reduplicated efforts, sectors bloated beyond requirements, or they simply fail. Even a casual read of something like Adam Tooze’s The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy (2006) reveals how much of a confused muddle Nazi industrial policy was. Allied armaments and economic efforts fared better, but were still often chaotic and impromptu at the time – initial US estimates of the military production possible in 1942, for instance, were wildly over-optimistic – akin to a situation where the ‘build military factory’ focus says it will add ten military factories but only adds five (or none!). But that simply cannot happen in Hearts of Iron IV.

Likewise, there is rarely much meaningful pushback for these focuses: they do what they say they do and only very few carry the possibility of blowback (which is – again, perfect information – clearly marked). An industrial plan never unexpectedly runs up against resistance from industrialists or workers or farmers or foreign financial interests. If you are playing as Communist China, you just trigger the ‘Agricultural Reform’ focus and ‘The Great Production Movement’ which just directly give you bonuses to construction speed and production because no industrial modernization movement led by Mao Zedong ever went wrong due to incomplete information, faulty implementation or any problem of unfounded ideological assumptions.

This lack of blowback is, of course, most obvious in the domestic political branches of the trees. While in many cases switching governing ideology does require a civil war or comes with penalties to stability, in practice making the decision for the government to abolish itself is as simple as clicking on the focus button, at which point the whole machinery of government – represented by the political power you are spending – gets to work on the job of becoming a different kind of government and unless that effort triggers an explicit civil war, no one tries to stop you.

Likewise, so long as you do not trigger one of those ideology-shifting trees, government control is extremely stable. In practice, throughout the war, leaders were abundantly aware that their power might be fragile – that battlefield setbacks or other problems might compromise their ability to lead. Not so in Hearts of Iron IV: governments are only fragile when they choose to be.

It is equally striking that in a game simulating an era of mass politics, the people matter very little to this system. As noted above, radically changing the population’s political beliefs in HoI4 is not hard – it is, in fact, very easy: it costs 150 political power to hire the single advisor who on their own will change a majority of the minds in the country in less than two years. 150 political power is, again, just about twice the cost of a single national focus or the same cost as moving a country’s conscription or mobilization law by a single step. This is a model of politics where once a political faction gets into government, mass-converting the entire populace and country to their ideology is presented as easy, a process of simply hitting the right button.

My run settled down into a fairly stable situation for most of early 1942. With no decision in the West, AI Germany did not declare war on the USSR and indeed the USSR is not going to join the war at all in this run. That left the entire German army on the western front, which required a longer build-up for me to have a viable breakthrough force.
That said, by May, 1942 I had assembled a mobile force of 10 armored divisions and 10 supporting motorized divisions to attempt to ‘punch outwards’ and launched that offensive in June. The initial goal was to push out eastward from Utrecht and then use the relatively flat ground to run to the Weser before turning north to trap any Germany forces left in the northern Netherlands.

Imperialism by Focus

When I was planning this series, I knew I’d want an example of just how absurd the outcomes that the focus tree can almost effortlessly give you are. Since we’re doing a United Kingdom run in the background, I thought I would use the Imperial Federation decision-chain as an example.

Now the concept of something like an Imperial Federation is not entirely a-historic – like many of these ‘alternate history’ paths, it is based on an idea that was talked about in the period – although as equally frequent the case, an idea that never got very far. From 1887 to 1937, the British Empire held somewhat regular ‘Imperial Conferences,’ where representatives of the constituent elements of the British Empire, including the Dominions, would meet. One of the ideas floated in the late 1880s and very early in the 1900s was the idea of creating a federal superstate encompassing the United Kingdom and the Dominions, an Imperial Federation; the idea never had tremendous support and was basically dead by 1926. But the United Kingdom focus tree lets you revive the concept and – solely as the United Kingdom, by pure force of political will (by which we mean pressing the button) force it through.

The entire sequence requires 12 national focuses, involving investments (fairly modest in scope and which come at no cost except the 70 day delay and political power cost of a focus) in the industry of India and the Dominions and then holding an Imperial Conference.

The focus tree path to get to the Imperial Conference. The India branch is optional if the player does not intend to include India in the resulting federation.

That then fires an event, the ‘Imperial Conference,’ at which the player can propose various common economic, military and political policies, at which point they can then propose an Imperial Federation. If all of the Dominions (potentially and the British Raj) accept, all of them get massive negative ticking autonomy, causing them to drift inexorably deeper under British control until the final Imperial Federation focus becomes available, annexing Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and the British Raj into a single mega-state, the Commonwealth of Nations, which contrary to its name does not in any way function as a federal state, but rather as a single, unitary state of enormous size.6

Now it is possible for the Dominions to refuse – as they absolutely would have if this had been proposed in this period – but by raising their diplomatic opinion to +100, the player can guarantee a 100% acceptance rate. And – more meme politics – raising diplomatic opinion to 100 is simply a matter of clicking the ‘improve relations’ button, which will cost 10 political power to start (so almost nothing) and a ticking cost of 0.2 per day7 will raise relations to +100 in just a couple of months. Want to get the Canadians to like you so much they’d give up self-government for you? Just hit the button.

The result is that in practice it takes a player-run United Kingdom just about two years to achieve something that in practice in the 1930s and 1940s was probably impossible at any level of effort. The popular consciousness of entire countries is effortlessly molded, are a perfectly linear rate of x% per day, into whatever form is required.

Notably, the game also does not ask the player to think at all about the outcome of this decision, it just works. And here I think a brief thought experiment is useful: what would an Imperial Federation c. 1940 entail? Decisions would have to be made about how the Dominions would be represented in a ‘super-parliament’ in London: by population? By white population (think hard about South Africa’s situation before answering)? And what about the Raj? If India was represented by population, it would instantly hold 70% or more of the seats. Now it is hard to see how India and Pakistan – with the Indian independence movement already very well advanced (the Non-cooperation Movement started in 1919!) – would ever agree to any such federation but surely they would not agree to any federation where they had an artificially reduced percentage of the vote. But it is equally impossible to imagine the United Kingdom or the Dominions agreeing to a super-federation that would have been, in practice, the Empire of New Delhi given the balance of votes in a pure by-population-system.

In short, even if India isn’t included, there are just very obvious insurmountable political hurdles here both for actually forming the federation and also that such a federation would immediately face after the war. Including India merely compounds those problems.

Hearts of Iron IV asks the player to consider exactly none of these issues. You simply march linearly down the focus tree, spending political power when necessary, remember to use ‘improve relations’ two to three months before firing the Imperial Conference decision and there you go. The focus to accomplish a probably impossible feat does exactly what it says on the tin, with no pushback and perfect information about the results and the effort requires the whole way through. The problems all, presumably, work themselves out off-screen: a good example of Hearts of Iron IV‘s ‘meme politics’ structure, but hardly a unique one – basically all political questions in HoI4 are resolved this way.

And the wild part is, the Imperial Federation is one of the most complex of such sequences, since it requires a whole event chain and a substantial delay between getting everyone to agree and having the federation actually happen (though mechanically, once everyone agrees, no one can really stop the federation from happening – the downward ticking autonomy is more than anyone is likely to be able to counteract). You hit the right button, wait for the delay and the thing the button says it does happens and the opinions or resistance of the hundreds of millions of people who are involved doesn’t matter a damn.

And here we can see just a few days later, my offensive has broken into the open and made it to the Weser (and even over it, stealing a march by getting into Bremen before serious opposition could dig in) with the result that roughly 40 German and Italian divisions ended up trapped in a pocket between Leewarden and Wilhelmshaven. While they have ports, my naval presence in the German Bight is sufficient that no supplies are getting through and no one is leaving either.
On the southern end of the pocket, I make it to Dortmund but not deeper into the Rhineland as the terrain there is difficult and the attack runs out of steam before I can secure all of the urban centers. That’s fine – this rush is plenty for now.

The Effect

This is obviously an extremely simplistic model of politics. The contrast with the still-quite-simplified but far more complex political simulation involves in Victoria II or III or Europa Universalis V or Crusader Kings III is remarkable. As Hancox-Li notes, this is a vision of politics which seems to have crept out of gaming spaces into the real world (sometimes more or less explicitly invoked) – an assumption that major changes in society are not difficult or fraught or complex or sometimes backfire, but merely require finding the right button, the right national focus, which is neatly labeled “Do The Thing” on the tin, and pressing it forcefully enough.

And it isn’t hard to see, as a question of development time and focus, how we got here: this is a game about fighting World War II, fundamentally focused on its operational simulation. Everything else – diplomacy, politics, espionage, industrial policy8 – is merely a delivery mechanism, the unadorned, simple frame in which to present the operational painting. And so choices can be simplified down to the basics, made predictable and streamlined so they do not distract the player too much from the core of the game, which is smashing divisions into other divisions. Equally, most of the friction here is removed to facilitate players who want to change up the exact layout of the board where they are smashing their Army Men together.

And to be clear, I have nothing against a pure operational simulation or war games in general. But this is, notionally, supposed to be a grand strategy game. Grand strategy is, definitionally, the coordination of political, diplomatic, economic and military means to achieve strategic ends. If two (three, really, as we’ll see) of those means are radically simplified in this way, are we really doing grand strategy? And if we’re not – why include the strategic simulation at all? Why not structure the game as a series of operations?

But there is, I think a deeper problem here (one we’ll see recur over the next few posts), the unintended implications of these gameplay simplifications. And I’ll be blunt: Hearts of Iron IV presents an authoritarian model of politics. It presents a world in which the authoritarians (both fascists and the communists) are fundamentally right about the nature of politics – that individuals do not matter. All that matters is the state, embodied in the player.

The people in Hearts of Iron IV do not yearn for freedom, nor do they really even have their own ideologies at all. All it takes is hiring the right propagandist and selecting the right focus tree button – decisions whose cost and time investment are trivial compared to the military aspects of the game – and any leader can bend any population into believing anything. In HoI4, the authoritarian, central direction of all of society – culture and economy – is not merely possible, but it is desirable, it is better mechanically, as players will find that authoritarian government forms allow them to adopt better (for military activity, the only thing the game considers) laws earlier, to be more assertive strategically, all while suffering no penalties at all from the effort to centrally direct an entire society. Playing as a democracy in Hearts of Iron IV is essentially a ‘roleplay’ choice to accept limited mechanics for no real benefit.

This stands, of course, in rather direct and remarkable opposition to the actual war in which many of the advantages of democratic forms of government were on display, particularly in the organization and employment of economic resources. The Soviet economic mobilization during the war (conducted in the context of extreme military pressure and lost territory) was undeniably impressive, a feat of will and sacrifice, yet in 1942 and 1943, the United Kingdom – not the British Empire, just the United Kingdom – was outproducing the USSR in total GDP despite having a tiny fraction of the landmass and around a third of the population.9 Likewise, the strategic downsides of autocracy – particularly the tendency of autocratic leaders to order foolish, wasteful military actions out of arrogance, ignorance and pride – were abundantly on display in the Second World War for both the Axis and the USSR, but this too is unrepresented in the game.

Fundamentally, Hearts of Iron IV has a political model where all that is required to change the kind of society one has is to seize power and then order the Gleichschaltung10 from above. That is a fundamentally authoritarian view of power and also a fundamentally contested view: part of what the war was about was, on some level, if this view of politics was sustainable, if polities organized on this basis could compete with the liberal democracies and by and large the verdict of the battlefield11 was no, they could not. Hearts of Iron IV grants the question, a priori, to the authoritarians, as an act of uncritical game design: authoritarian politics – fascist politics – work in HoI4 in exactly the way that the fascists of the 1930s and 1940s imagined they did.

In an effort to streamline away any political friction and get straight to the ‘fun stuff’ of war, Hearts of Iron IV adopts a fundamentally authoritarian vision of politics, uncritically and without caveats.

And the resulting vision is simply inaccurate. To take our Imperial Federation example above, in the real world the rising tide of decolonization could not simply be wished away – not even in the 1930s – by hiring the right advisor or pressing the right button. Popular opinion was not, in fact, easily and effortlessly molded by governments, but in fact would spend the 20th century for the most part bending governments rather than being bent by them. World War II was a war of mass politics in which the politics of the masses mattered a great deal and the decision by HoI4 to simplify that away into an exercise of pure state power leaves the player with quite a misleading assumption of how the politics of the 1930s came to be the way they were.

One understands the desire to simplify the mechanics that frame the core experience of a game, but it is necessary to be very careful in how those elements are simplified so that the simplification doesn’t end up doing violence to the underlying history.

Unfortunately, domestic politics is hardly the only historical concern of the 1930s and 1940s that Hearts of Iron IV airbrushes away – next week we’ll turn to the questions of occupation, bombing and war crimes. It isn’t going to get better.

Finally by August 1942 a zoomed out view of where the lines basically stabilize after the first offensive as I begin preparing for the next ‘push.’ While it might be tempting to push southward further into the Rhinelands, the terrain there is difficult for armored operations (rivers, cities and forests), whereas the terrain leading eastward into Germany by advancing to the Elbe is more favorable and lets me keep close to naval bases of supply (important because all those armored divisions eat up a lot of fuel).

The Week Observed: October 2, 2026

What City Observatory Did This Week

A phony success story from the Oregon Department of Transportation.  ODOT has a real problem with highway projects going way over budget, so it came as a surprise to read last week that the troubled agency  proclaimed a Salem area I-5 widening project a “success” because it is coming in at a cost of $55 million.  The truth is, its not a success.  ODOT has buried or ignored its own original cost estimate of $35 million, meaning that rather than being on budget, the project is more than 50 percent ($20 million) over budget.

ODOT’s measures of cost overruns routinely move the goalposts by “re-baselining” project costs:  adjusting or simply forgetting the original cost estimate under which the project was approved.

Rather than showing that ODOT’s management is improving, this shows that the agency manipulates data and reporting to create the false impression that it is “under budget” on large projects.  This is symptomatic of a continuing agency-wide denial of its inability to manage project costs.

What global rankings say about successful cities and Portland’s performance.  Oxford Economics, a UK-based consulting firm, has prepared its annual ranking of the 1,000 cities worldwide in its Global Cities Index.  The report is clear about what matters to urban economic success, what doesn’t matter and provides an independent view of how US cities, including Portland are doing.  In short:

Education and quality of life are the critical factors determining urban economic success, according to Oxford Economics.

What plainly doesn’t matter much, is just a clear:  neither tax levels, incentives, nor “business climate” figure into whether cities do well or don’t.   Taxes are mentioned just seven times in the 155-page report, and then only in passing.

The data show Portland is very strong in quality of life:  ranking 8th among the 50 largest US cities included in the Index.  Portland also ranks above average for these US cities in human capital and economic strength. The global perspective provided by this report casts serious doubt on claims made that Portland is somehow stuck in a “doom loop” and that somehow our economy will be improved by cutting taxes for the wealthy and big businesses.  Instead, maintaining Oregon’s quality of life, and investing in education are the real keys to long term prosperity.

How ODOT hides cost overruns.   The Oregon Department of Transportation is in financial crisis, and is routinely hiding the major cause of its fiscal problems:  the exploding cost of major highway expansion projects.  ODOT’s management systematically hides data showing the nature and extent of cost overruns.

  • ODOT’s Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) misleadingly claim that 86 percent of projects are completed under budget.
  • ODOT is careful to define overruns only as costs after contracts are awarded:  this conceals ODOT staff’s consistent pattern of low-balling initial cost estimates to get  projects approved.
  • ODOT’s project database omits every large project that has experienced a cost overrun.  The agency’s Transportation Project Tracker dashboard lists only seven  tiny projects as having experienced cost overruns accounting for a cumulative $6 million cost.

Over the past three decades, fourteen major ODOT projects have increased in cost by a total of more than $16 billion from their initial estimates, something you would never know from ODOT’s key performance measures or reporting.  The ODOT KPI and project tracker understates the scale of the cost overrun problem by a factor of more than 1,000.

 

Must Read

This week’s must read items are of a piece, each explores, from a different perspective, the nature and causes of the car-dependent bias built into our transportation systems.  Whether its deeply buried technocratic criteria, the methodology of benefit-cost assessment, the imagination that underlies how we think about transportation and daily life, or the superstructure of policy and administration, all of these factors promote driving and amplify its negative effects.   

The criteria behind urban highway destruction Streetsblog offers an excerpt from Ivis Garcia’s book The Story of Urban Planning, highlighting the important and not well-understood role of institutional engineering criteria rather than individual villains. Planning criteria to select and design projects emphasized on minimizing of construction costs, maximizing traffic capacity, and reducing of travel time from core to suburb.  These criteria, reflected in, federal highway formulas effectively targeted lower-income neighborhoods where land was cheapest and political resistance was weakest. Freeway revolts led to a more inclusive process, but because the substance of these planning criteria and funding formulas persisted, the system still tended to create the same problems.

García emphasizes these deeply embedded criteria drove decisions.  

“Ask what your region’s decision rule rewards. Then ask what it has no way to count. That second list is where the damage happens”

Reforming urban transportation requires fundamentally altering the decision metrics that value vehicle speed over community preservation.  It’s certainly true, as we’ve long argued at City Observatory, technocratic “rules of thumb” have been used to systematically tilt the planning process toward car-dependency. That said, the “formula, not villains” framing is a false dichotomy. The villains created and used the formulas to cloak their plans in quasi-scientific, seemingly objective terms; some may have been indifferent or clueless to the implications, but Robert Moses, for one, made no secret of his plans, saying at one point he needed to take a meat clever to the city to build his roadways.

 

Evaluating the true ecological outcomes of highways.  The technocratic rules that Garcia lambastes, are in effect still with us, in a variety of forms, including the AASHTO “Red Book” ” the long-standing manual used by transportation agencies to calculate the economic benefits of highway investments. Unsurprisingly, a manual created and maintained by a lobbying group of highway builders is, by definition, biased strongly in favor of finding (or imagining) big benefits for highway construction and largely ignoring their costs.  Urban analyst Gary G. Nelson examines the National Academies’ new effort to update AASHTO’s “Red Book.”,Nelson points out that traditional benefit-cost models narrowly measure travel time savings and immediate traffic flow while ignoring broader long-term consequences such as land-use sprawl, environmental impacts, and the erosion of urban vitality. The AASHTO scoping study for the revisions effectively admits these problems, but its far from clear that this process will do anything to change the long standing biases.  Nelson writes 

“Traditionally, standalone transportation BCA tools and accompanying user-benefits analyses do not directly incorporate benefits associated with changes in land use or accessibility. This is because standalone tools do not typically factor in long-run changes in driver behavior”. 

As we’ve pointed out at City Observatory, in practice, benefit-cost analysis is rigged and laced with profound conflicts of interest.  For example, the benefit-cost analysis for the Interstate Bridge Replacement Project in Portland—the nation’s most expensive project, per mile—was conducted by consulting firm WSP, which also had a contract to design the bridge.  If its benefit cost analysis—which systematically overestimated benefits, ignored induced demand, and understated costs—had revealed that the project had fewer benefits than costs, it would have been ineligible for federal funds, and WSP stood to lose tens of millions of business.  Unless someone other than a self-interested industry organization writes the guidelines for measuring benefits and costs, it’s a virtual certainty that a new “red book” will similarly generate fawning studies to justify ever more highways.

 

Overcoming the transportation imagination gap.  Famously, much of the public appetite for highways was fueled by General Motors’ “World of Tomorrow exhibit at the 1940 World’s Fair in New York.  It painted a vision of universal auto-mobility, that still underlies much public thinking and public policy.   Streetsblog editor Kea Wilson challenges us to think about how we might similarly inspire public demand for car-free infrastructure.  The problem isn’t just  technocratic, it’s also the need to paint a compelling picture of the alternatives to auto-dominated living. Like addicts, it’s a huge challenge for most people to imagine living without cars, or see the benefits of living in a car-free environment, and they view limits on driving (like a loss of lanes or parking) as an impingement, rather than a viable alternative.  Winning hearts and minds will require moving beyond technical data and doom-filled warnings and employing tactical urbanist demonstrations, pop-up events, and positive storytelling to show how walkable, transit-rich neighborhoods improve daily life. Wilson argues this kind of vision can help generate support for car-free and car light cities.

“When enough people aren’t functionally forced to drive, our cities become more joyful, peaceful, healthy, safe, affordable, child-friendly, accessible to people of all abilities, and fun. And that’s not even the end of the list”.

There is a thirst for urban living that isn’t dependent on car travel, and occasionally we see glimpses of this in the media, something we wrote about in our essay on “A Perfect Day.” 

Rebalancing federal goals for urban transportation A new Brookings Metro report by Adie Tomer and Ben Swedberg argues that America’s surface transportation system is failing inside metropolitan areas because governance structures remain anchored to mid-century priorities. Like Garcia, Timer and Swedberg point out that the formula and structure of federal funding prioritize car mobility,  long-distance trucking and low-density housing expansion.  This emphasis has  produced urban road systems plagued by rising traffic fatalities, escalating vehicle ownership costs, and growing maintenance backlogs. Tomer and Sweberg argue for a new intergovernmental framework where federal, state, and local agencies align their policies with a different and broader set of  goals including industrial competitiveness, household affordability, public health, and asset resilience. Critiquing the existing framework, Tomer and Swedberg note:

“Today, we’re living in a country defined by a transportation policy paradigm focused overwhelmingly on two big priorities: accelerating interstate commerce and promoting large-lot housing. But pursuing those goals came with consequences: We built metropolitan transportation systems that fail to keep users safe”.

 Taken together, these four must-reads make the case that we need to have a different vision for the goals of our transportation system that embrace reducing car-dependence.  Beyond imagination and vision, we’ll need to overhaul the technocratic standards (funding formula, design guidelines, benefit cost analysis) that tend to pervasively embed car primacy in policy. This is not a task that can be entrusted to the engineers and highway agencies that have a strong bias toward a car-centric worldview.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Accelerator Energies

Fans at Daytona always get extra excited when officials decide to introduce some antimatter cars circling the track in the opposite direction.

Links 10/2/26

Links for you. Science:

Dogs Will Fight Bears. But Not Because of the Reason You Might Think.
How AI does, and does not, change the way I do math
Dr. Nicole Saphier: “DOGE is Probably One of the Greatest Things to Happen in U.S. History.”
Studying this super El Niño could save lives. NOAA is scaling back research
Trump Signs Order to Significantly Reduce Mosquitoes and Ticks in D.C.
Disruption of global research at NIH is endangering people in the United States and around the world
Two Centuries On, Smithsonian Connects Jefferson’s Hair to Hemings’s Children

Other:

Gonzaga, too
The New Radicals: Democrats need to be the uncompromising ones now.
DoorDash Apologizes for Siding With GOP Bill Targeting D.C.
Why Can’t We Just Talk About Tax Credits
The Real Threat to the Midterms Is Regular Americans Thinking Violence Is the Answer
Surveillance Company Tells Cops It Wants to Add Facial Recognition to Flock Cameras
Decline in tourism hits US economy (Trump take tourism)
Outrage after Fetterman’s MAGA-linked fundraising deals exposed: ‘He betrays the people’
How a Cornell Student Went From Shame to Seeking Justice
D.C. Judge Permanently Dismisses Reflecting Pool Vandalism Case Against Ex-Olympian
Cornell Students Question Greek Life Culture After Sexual Assault Claim
What we lose if the U cuts $225 million. The University of Minnesota cannot do more with less. It will do less with less.
How to limit the rat numbers? Train the humans
Hispanic Voters on the Texas Border Have Soured on Trump
Madison Square Garden’s James Dolan Is Spending Big on New York’s Governor Race
Read the Full Transcript of Donald Trump’s 2026 Interview With TIME (Trump spoke like this in his first term too)
Amazon Will Pay $8.25 Million Over Slow Delivery in Predominantly Black D.C. Neighborhoods
These new laws go into effect Oct. 1 in DC, Maryland and Virginia
The Defense Department Has Spent $49M Feeding the National Guard in D.C.
Today in bizarre, authoritarian spectacles from the Trump White House
New Database Tracks the Education Outcomes of D.C. Students
Tom Brady Has Only Himself to Blame
Pete Hegseth’s Big Speech Was Weirdest Village People Cover We’ve Ever Heard
Renee Good’s Family Is Suing The ICE Agent That Killed Her
U.S. Rejects U.N. Declaration on Preparing for Future Pandemics
Texas GOP Candidate Has Long History of Calling for Public Executions. Bo French may have deleted his posts—but the internet never forgets.
Eric Schmitt was warned about the Jack Smith texts. He used them anyway. As Republicans on Capitol Hill try to figure out how Eric Schmitt’s bombshell fell apart so embarrassingly, it turns out he was warned that the texts were unvetted.
McDonald’s Built a 515-Page Dossier on Me. It Says I’ll Never Stop Eating There
Trump plan to combat AI risks hinges on Big Tech pals policing themselves
How to Beat Surveillance Pricing Before It Bleeds You Dry

📙 #097 - DOOM (again), YouTube Forgery Machine, handwriting & profit/loss (maybe)

Last newsletter I’d started thrashing around with displaying the E1M1 map of DOOM as theoretically plottable vectors. Well, theoretical no more, I plotted a quick run through; then made this timelapse. I always plan on doing these properly, but just handheld this one, so some of the frames are out of focus, I’m going to say that’s part of the charm. It’s very jumpy and timelapsey!

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Each month over in Patreon-land I pick a theme for the monthly postcards/prints, last month’s was “handwriting” (more on that in a moment), and this month’s is going to be all about DOOM; animations, frames, maps, experiments and, yes, actually, finally, can you play DOOM on a drawing machine?

I have a hunch you can, at about 1 frame per 5 minutes, and I think it’ll take me around 7 hours - so snacks may be involved.

October’s theme post is here: https://www.patreon.com/revdancatt/posts/october-26-plans-171133295

And if you want some DOOM themed pen-plot postcards/A5 plots, or just to follow along then sign up for membership here: https://www.patreon.com/cw/revdancatt/membership

That feels a little self-promotiony to me, but I’ve been told repeatedly that you need to be subtle as a brick, over and over, because people quite often go “Oh, I didn’t know you had a Patreon/Newsletter/YouTube channel.”

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# YOUTUBE & VIDEOS

The handwriting from last month got its own full length video, with the slightly click-bate title “Forgery Machine”…

…because as much as I love carry-on-titles “Making a typewriter handwriting drawing machine with my own handwriting” just wasn’t going to do it, and “Forgery Machine” would probably reach a wider audience.

From a personal view, it was nice to make an actual video-video after spending most of 2026 shooting the Drawing Machine 101 tutorials. I decided I’d finally earned the right to make a video for myself.

As I’ve mentioned before, the point of the old weekly “Weeknotes” videos was to get used to using the equipment & software and talking in-front of the camera, ready for making the tutorials. The problem with Weeknotes videos is they were often slices across multiple ongoing projects; unless you were following along every week you never really go to properly see the full arc/conclusion of a project.

Last month was an experiment of taking the monthly Patreon project and recording (an aspect of) it as a video diary, and I think it kinda worked. So I’m going to do the same this month with the Doom postcards/project. I’ll record the whole thing start to end, postcards get sent out on the 21st, then I’ll wrap up the video and post it to YouTube shortly after that.

I’m also about to record the next few videos for Module 4 of the Drawing Machine 101 tutorials, which should be fun and also getting me closer to finishing them all sometime in 2027.

Here are some of the handwriting postcards that went out.

And I’ve been diving into making some more handwriting plots, both larger plots and more intense…

So one set of pen plotters in the studio are going to be exploring this whole thing, while “Penjamin” the plotter will be doing the DOOM stuff, phew!


Thanks for reading Drawing Machines & Notes from Art Studio Robots! This post is public so feel free to share it.

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# PROFIT/LOSS

A long time ago, I used to publish monthly profit/loss reports for how my whole pen plotting “empire” was going. Because I thought it was both interesting to share how much I was spending on equipment, pens, paper and so on, and how little I was earning from selling plots - and I didn’t see anyone else doing it, and I figured it would be useful/interesting for others.

My main aim was to pay off the initial cost of the first pen plotter machine I bought, which after many months I finally did, bringing the grand overall profit to around £3.52. I was going to carry on but various other factors, including getting a job messed all that up and muddied the water around what was profit, loss, business expense and basically making things un-useful to share.

I kept my Shopify shop for a while but didn’t update it, or add any new stock, so a monthly profit/loss report was essentially…

Shopify: -£30

…until I shut it down.

BUT!

I bought a pack of Bic Cristal pens the other day for the very black writing plots above. I think they cost something like £4, I’ll have to double check, and I’m getting the shop (very slowly) set up again on my own server, so no monthly Shopify fees.

And, it’s the first of the month today.

So I thought, perhaps, maybe, I’ll start tracking expenses on pens/paper again from today, and “profit” from any pen plots sold, and start doing a monthly report. It won’t be much, and it definitely won’t cover the cost of all the drawing machines sitting in the studio.

Perhaps stating that I’m going to do that here will be some form of accountability that’ll get my arse into gear and sort the damn shop out?!?

If I do, the first profit/loss report for October will fall on the 12th November, in about three newsletters’ time.


# THE END

Studio view

I think it’s been a while since I posted a studio view so here we go.

The last three months have been stressful, with a lot going on, mostly good, as in everything is very busy, satisfying and interesting; stressful in that the rewarding parts keep getting either pushed back or put “on hold”, which is frustrating, and the general source of the stress. I feel like I’ve been working non-stop and yet to reap the benefit.

Chatting to friends and other artist I get a sense that it’s a pretty common feeling at the moment, so sending as many positive vibes as I can out to you all.

Oh!

To wrap up the YouTube slow climb to 10k subs, a fairly arbitrary number, we hit it shortly after the last newsletter, well done to everyone, but mainly me! 😆

I’ve now picked a new totally arbitrary number 25k, which we should hit in 1,401 days/2nd Aug 2030, if I carry on at this rate - which I won’t, because this was driven by the “Forgery Machine” video - going back to the normal tutorial videos will plateau the fuck out of the daily rate.

Anyway, next newsletter will be with you on Thursday 15th October, 2026! Until then,

Love you all
Dan
🧡

PS.

I haven’t watched this, ‘cause I don’t use Rhino or Grasshopper, “This video is an unedited recording of a live webinar, there will be pauses and breaks” and clocks in at just over four hours. But James is awesome, so I wanted to share it here.


Thanks for reading Drawing Machines & Notes from Art Studio Robots! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Signs, signs, everywhere signs ...

Political signs suck.

I believe that to be true, and I’m quite certain candidates believe it to be true, too.

Let’s say, for example, you’re Diane Dixon, the Newport Republican running for supervisor. You only have so many dollars to put into an election. Like, there is a limit. So you budget X for campaign workers, X for mailers, X for events, X for signs and X for free botox for your most devoted supporters. Then you have people put them all over the place, and before long they blend in with alllllll the other signage. You hope yours are good (I will say—Dixon doesn’t have my vote, but her signs are solid), but even if they are good—how does it help you? What does it actually add to your efforts?

Put different: You feel naked without signs, but invisible with them.

That being said …

Earlier today my wife sent me a text featuring the signage of an Irvine City Council candidate named Kathleen Treseder. She wrote: “You asked what makes a good political sign. This is original. [My Friend] sent them and said she’s got her vote.”

Indeed.

I don’t know if Treseder will win or lose. She’s an incumbent member of the Irvine City Council; a real-deal environmentalist who serves as the Howard A. Schneiderman Endowed Chair and Professor of Biology at University of California Irvine. She’s smart and accomplished and a 180 from the wackadoos who take up far too much space in the local political spehere.

And, right now, you’re reading about her because she was wise and creative and put animals on her signs.

Well played, Dr. Treseder.

Well played.

PS: You can donate to her campaign here. She’s clearly a good egg. And anyone who loves dogs and cats this much can’t be bad.

Taking a ride on the abortion bus

Alf and Miner doing the lord’s work.

There is a woman named Madison Miner, and if you have the choice of hanging out with her for a day or stapling your tongue to an acid-coated dumpster, take the staple.

Three years ago, Miner appeared on a podcast to state—unequivocally—that CHOC (Children’s Hospital of Orange County) was gathering local students, herding them onto a bus, ferrying them for abortions—then returning the (baby-less) kids to school. And if you don’t believe me …

In case you don’t know, Madison Miner is also regionally sorta/kinda/not really famous for being elected to the Orange Unified Board of Education in 2022, but then being booted via recall two years later. Along with the bus fantasy, her family stood with the notorious Westboro Baptist Church. She lied about her job. She hyped a pyramid scheme. Her kids attended Orange County Classical Academy, a charter school founded by the nutty Dr. Jeff Barke that offered “classical education” emphasizing Western civilization and Judeo-Christian concepts. As I wrote in a previous post, “Think Amber Smith, then subtract 30 IQ points and increase the size of the (unironically placed) cross dangling from her neck.”

I digress.

As local elections approach, Miner is endorsing candidates—including the regular Moms For Liberty wackadoos running in Capo Unified.

Here are the people she suggests you support …

And I would like to remind you, once again—these people … ARE BEING ENDORSED BY AN ABSOLUTE LUNATIC WHO THINKS KIDS ARE CARTED OFF ON ABORTION BUSES. Seriously. It’s the company you keep, and I have yet to hear Carbalero, Shephard or Bourne say, “Um, nah, girl—we good. You’re nuts.”

They are just like her. Hard right. Devoted to Christ in school. Facts not so important. Weird, unhinged, bonkers in the worst sense of the word.

In short, they ride the abortion bus.

PS: Can someone on the local right fringe please tell your cult leaders “Shepard” is being routinely misspelled? I hope she loses in the worst possible fashion, but Christ almighty—why is spelling so hard for these bowling pins?

PPS: Seriously, Miner is grotesque …

October 1, 2026

John Hudson of the Washington Post reported this evening that the Trump administration is openly defying Congress, taking $52 million in military assistance lawmakers appropriated for European and Middle Eastern countries hurt by Russia’s war on Ukraine and diverting it to right-wing governments in Panama, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia.

When the State Department notified Congress last month that it intended to make the switch, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Representative Gregory Meeks (D-NY) put a hold on the funds. Late yesterday, the administration told Congress it is defying the hold and moving ahead. Shaheen and Meeks objected, warning the White House that Congress had provided the money for a specific purpose and that “[t]he Executive Branch does not have unlimited discretion to redirect these funds toward unrelated Administration policy priorities or countries.”

The State Department told Hudson that Trump is prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and that the money would be better spent in Latin America than where Congress wanted it.

The U.S. Constitution is clear that only Congress can appropriate money and that the president must execute the laws as Congress passes them, but the Trump administration has been aggressive about its intention to take control of the power of the purse from Congress. Yesterday Tarini Parti, Marianne LeVine, and Michelle Hackman of the Wall Street Journal reported that the administration appears to have taken $20 million from the funds Congress appropriated for the Department of Homeland Security to pay for the ads boosting Trump before the midterms.

That destruction of the fundamental separation of powers at the heart of our government has gotten very little pushback from Republican lawmakers. And senators left Washington, D.C., today for a recess until after the midterms; the House is already in recess.

The White House has made very little secret of its determination to abandon the international order the U.S. helped to put into place after World War II. In its place, Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appear to embrace the idea that major powers should exercise influence over the countries around them, as Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, believes.

Yesterday Paul McLeary, Stefanie Bolzen, and Jack Detsch of Politico reported that the Trump administration had not invited the United Kingdom, France, the Baltic countries, or other U.S. allies to a meeting of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members next month in Poland. The meeting is being directed by Defense Department policy chief Elbridge Colby and is designed to discuss NATO’s future. The exclusion of traditional U.S. allies has raised concerns that the U.S. is continuing to try to splinter NATO according to those Trump considers loyal and those whose actions he dislikes.

Earlier this week, Putin warned NATO that he might use nuclear weapons against NATO countries. German chancellor Friedrich Merz said Putin’s threats are a sign of his “desperation” over the Ukraine invasion and that Europe expects Russia to launch “severe” hybrid attacks: sabotage, cyberattacks, and destabilizing disinformation. Should such attacks come, Merz said, “we would respond quickly and very clearly.”

The fact that the United States Constitution and foreign affairs appear to be at the mercy of one man and the loyalists he has around him undermines the principles at the heart of our democracy. The fact that that one man’s mental acuity has collapsed is an immediate calamity.

Time magazine today released a “lightly edited” transcript of an interview their senior political correspondent Eric Cortellessa and editor-in-chief Sam Jacobs conducted with Trump at the White House on September 28.

The interview reveals a man unable to answer questions coherently, obsessed with his architectural projects, consumed by his own fantasy of himself, and angry at the media that he feels mistreats him. He does not appear to be a well man.

He complained bitterly that the three Supreme Court justices he appointed “voted against me too often,” and suggested he expects “loyalty” from them. Asked about the national debt, which just passed $40 trillion, he blamed Biden for it, although Trump by himself has added $11 trillion to the debt in his time in office. He insisted he will change the name of artificial intelligence to “super intelligence.” Once again, he claimed that the economic growth created by AI will pay off the debt.

Trump refused to rule out using the Insurrection Act before the midterms, demolishing the Kennedy Center, or “annihilating” Iran. He talked about designating the Oval Office a national landmark so no one can alter the changes he’s made to it, covering it in gold frippery.

Despite having hit new lows in his job approval ratings, he claimed: “I would beat anybody running today by 20 points. Your numbers that you have are fake. The pollsters are corrupt. They’re almost as corrupt as the writers.”

“I have the highest of IQs. I have the highest. I’m fine, and I understand that stuff. You know, my uncle was at MIT for 41 years, and you know, I’m a—I believe in genetics, frankly, and I understand. I understand it much more than I think any president would, because I do have an ability on this. I have an ability on those things that were the new frontiers.”

“Here we are doing this. You haven’t asked me one f*cking positive question. All of this. What about this? What about that? What about that? What about this? All negative.”

Aaron Rupar of Public Notice recommended “people read this to get a sense of the president’s grave cognitive impairment.”

Trump’s inability to tell the difference between his fantasies and reality was on display Wednesday when, as Timothy W. Martin and Gavin Bade of the Wall Street Journal explained, Trump announced that the South Korean government had agreed to invest $50 billion in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline in Alaska. With him was Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK), whose seat is in danger from Democratic candidate Mary Peltola. “This one is huge for Alaska,” Sullivan said, and his office later celebrated the “historic $54 billion Korean investment” into Alaska’s LNG pipeline.

In fact, the Commerce Department and South Korea’s Industry Ministry had simply agreed to “commence working” on such a project. The South Korean government disagreed with Trump’s statement. “Putting out figures, or using definitive language, goes far beyond what was agreed,” South Korea’s industry minister, Kim Jung-kwan said. South Korea’s president, Lee Jae Myung, took to social media to emphasize that the plan will proceed only if it turns out to be financially viable and meets legal requirements in South Korea.

Trump on Monday announced a deal to build a $15 billion steel plant in Lee County, Iowa. As Stephanie Kaloi of Mediaite reported, at the announcement, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told him the plant came from “your 232 tariffs, the steel tariffs at work.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the plant is the “Trump reindustrialization of America hitting the ground at a series scale.” Lutnick said: “I think this deal is done. This deal is done. They’ve already worked it out. That’s why we’re all together with the president. The president doesn’t bring people together unless it’s a done deal. You guys know that already.” To that, Trump added: “They’ve already started building.”

But when Matt Christensen of KWQC in Davenport, Iowa, went to look, he found no major property purchases tied to the project this year. “Company officials say they don’t have details about its plans, and no permits have been filed. The financial side isn’t settled, either,” he said. “The Iowa legislature will meet Friday in a special session to debate incentives for the company to build in Iowa. Meanwhile, Trump and lawmakers still haven’t disclosed exactly where in Lee County the plant would go. For residents here, that’s left more questions than answers about a project the White House is calling ‘a sure thing.’”

This afternoon, as he set off for Denton, Texas, before a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, Trump told reporters about Iran: “Now I have to make a decision. They’ll either sign a very fair deal, or they won’t exist any longer.” In Texas he told the crowd the U.S. would “win very easily…right after the election.”

Although the outrageous chaos of the Trump years has numbed us, it is not acceptable for the president of the United States to threaten another nation with annihilation.

Lara Seligman and Shelby Holliday of the Wall Street Journal reported today that the United States will send a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. The USS Theodore Roosevelt will join the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS George Washington, adding 9,000–10,000 troops to the more than 50,000 U.S. troops already in the region.

The Roosevelt left San Diego on Sunday, while a group of three amphibious ships and Marines from the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit left Monday. They will arrive at their destination by the end of November.

Meanwhile, here at home, Judge Todd E. Edelman today dismissed the government’s case against David Hearn with prejudice, meaning it cannot be resurrected. Hearn is the Olympian the government accused of vandalizing the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, although the contractors themselves acknowledged they were responsible for its torn lining. After the government acknowledged that there was no merit in its prosecution of Hearn, Trump continued to insist Hearn should be prosecuted.

“[B]ecause the government’s legitimate interest in maintaining the possibility of a future prosecution seems so marginal, and because of the extraordinary possibility that Mr. Hearn will nonetheless face a meritless, politically motivated prosecution,” the judge said, the court must protect him from uncertainty “and from what, objectively, would be harassment” from his own government.

—

Notes:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/10/01/trump-defies-democrats-diverts-aid-europe-latin-america-instead/

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/homeland-security-money-financed-pro-trump-television-ads-54ac33bb

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/30/trump-nato-allies-left-out-01100310

https://www.ft.com/content/1bb7ec8d-7252-4fa3-8c4a-81fa5b6906a2?syn-25a6b1a6=1

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-issues-nuclear-warning-nato-tensions-rise-baltic-2026-09-30/

https://time.com/article/2026/10/01/donald-trump-2026-interview-transcript/

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/south-korea-contests-u-s-claims-of-new-50-billion-alaska-investment-550b9a1e

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/south-korea-contests-u-s-claims-of-new-50-billion-alaska-investment-550b9a1e

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/trump-south-korea-investment-alaska-lng-nuclear-power.html

https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/trump-gratuitously-thanked-at-least-12-times-for-iowan-steel-plant-opening-in-2030/

https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/local-iowa-report-provides-scathing-fact-check-of-trumps-new-steel-mill-thats-not-true/

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-sending-third-aircraft-carrier-up-to-10-000-more-troops-to-middle-east-42996f7a

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/climate/reflecting-pool-contractor-trump.html?eafs_enabled=false

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28712305-order-dismissing-case-with-prejudice-united-states-v-david-hearn-2026-cf2-010237/

X:

atrupar/status/2105703734760079455

Jaemyung_Lee/status/2105486577208299977

Bluesky:

atrupar.com/post/3mwt2wo6dls2u

factpostnews.bsky.social/post/3mwtv5i5y372y

carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mwtgnes46c2m

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Supply is elastic, installment #1637

For taxes too:

Using administrative data from Scandinavian countries, we provide evidence on international migration responses to wealth taxes and evaluate their aggregate economic implications. We find significant migration responses among the wealthy: A 1 percentage point increase in the top wealth tax rate decreases the stock of wealthy taxpayers by about 2 percent. A large fraction of the wealthy are business owners, and their businesses are negatively affected by owner out-migration. The aggregate effects are nevertheless modest: The migration responses to a 1 percentage point increase in the top wealth tax rate reduce employment by 0.02 percent, investments by 0.07 percent, and value added by 0.10 percent.

That is by Katrine Jakobsen, Henrik Kleven, Jonas Kolsrud, Camille Landais and Mathilde Munoz, in the latest issue of the AER.

The post Supply is elastic, installment #1637 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Friday assorted links

1. How rich was Anglo-Saxon England?

2. New game theory paper on AI races.

3. Scott Sumner movie reviews, please note he is always correct and thus the greatest film critic in the world, at least by that metric.

4. What should the AI safety movement be?

5. The frontier models are beating licensed accountants.

6. “Somewhere between 2 and 6 cents of every dollar of World Bank foreign aid disbursements got siphoned off into crypto wallets…”

7. Imbue Studios.

8. War in Ethiopia returns.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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World Space Week 2026 Celebrates the “Rocket Revolution”

World Space Week Association logo

HOUSTON, Texas (September 30, 2026)— World Space Week events, beginning October 4 in 100 nations, will celebrate how launch innovation has stimulated the rapidly-growing space economy and enabled new uses […]

The post World Space Week 2026 Celebrates the “Rocket Revolution”  appeared first on SpaceNews.

Photosynthesis: A New Angle into Fermi’s Paradox?

One of the things that gives the Fermi paradox its punch is the age of the galaxy. Back in 1950 when Fermi uttered his famous ‘Where is everybody?’ question, ideas about how old the Milky Way was were all over the map. Working with Hubble’s constant as understood at the time, the entire universe looked to be no more than 2 billion years old, a problem given what we were learning about the age of the Earth itself based on radioactive dating. So workarounds were needed, and they included the then widely supported steady-state theory, which saw a universe without beginning or end.

Then too, the problem of the age of the galaxy could not be satisfactorily worked out because we had no good methods to gauge the age of individual stars. A book could be written about the evolution of our thinking on both age problems, but for now, let’s say that Fermi asked his question about extraterrestrials at a time when values for the age of the galaxy were generally set at between 3 and 5 billion years. The tension between this and the Hubble constant values would persist, although Allan Sandage managed by the end of the 1950s to come up with an estimate for the universe of 13 billion years.

Fermi’s question gets more acute every time we come up with new information about how old our system is compared to the age of the galaxy. As we’ve discussed in these pages many times before, Charles Lineweaver’s work early in the 21st century demonstrated that we are newcomers compared to at least some of the stars in our vicinity. If that’s the case, then the idea of habitable planets being in existence several billion years before we showed up is plausible. And if we take ourselves as the measure (always dangerous, but we are the only datapoint), the idea of advanced extraterrestrial civilisations seems likely, assuming that these could find ways to avoid destroying themselves.

Image: The galaxy evolves. How many stars of the 400 billion now thought to exist here emerged at least a billion years before the Sun coalesced?

As always, though, we have to scout our assumptions. Just because it took what we now believe to be 4.6 billion years for Earth to produce intelligent life, why should that be the case everywhere else? An interesting new paper takes on that question by suggesting that no matter the size of their headstart, planets much older than our own may still be in the early stages of microbial life, without yet reaching the point of producing even primitive larger species.

The work of Chris Doughty (Northern Arizona University) and colleagues, the paper argues that we should be looking at what the team calls ‘plant energy,’ and stop focusing on time as an indicator of likely development. The hypothesis: “The biological evolution rate is a linear function of cumulative carbon fixed on a planet.” Note the word ‘fixed.’ What this describes is the process of taking carbon dioxide, an inorganic gas, and turning it into organic molecules like sugars. Photosynthesis does most of this work on Earth. It uses the energy derived from sunlight as the driver, with the carbon taken out of the atmosphere and oceans and put to use in biological systems.

Proposing a linear link between the amount of carbon fixed in this way and the rate of evolutionary development is a striking move. It’s even more so when considered as a tool for exoplanet research. The paper looks at the amount of carbon Earth has fixed over its lifetime and compares that to what other planets are likely to have fixed during their own lifetimes. 29 exoplanets are studied here, with only two of them surpassing Earth’s cumulative Net Primary Production (NPP), and therefore capable of developing multicellular and perhaps intelligent life. NPP refers to the carbon fixed by photosynthesis that ends up as new biomass.

Image: How we see plant photosynthetic pigments. The MESSENGER image of Earth on the left is very close to what can be seen by the human eye. For the image on the right, a red component was substituted that shows near infra-red colors. The vegetation in the Amazon basin produces the purplish-red color in the center of the image. The new paper proposes that cumulative fixed carbon is itself a marker that can be tied not only to life but to the pace of evolutionary change. (Image credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Carnegie Institution of Washington, via JPL Photojournal).

The planets on Doughty’s list are chosen from the Habitable Worlds Catalog, which organizes NASA data based on factors such as radius, irradiation, temperature and age. The authors use stellar radiation, temperature and precipitation maps from several recent studies to calculate how Earth fixed carbon in different stages of biological evolution, and ask how long the examined planets would take to achieve the same amount of carbon.

From the paper:

Assuming Darwinian evolution, a baseline astrobiological assumption… each generation of life has a small potential for genetic change following either sexual or asexual reproduction. These genetic changes will either be successful or not depending on the environment, species competition or predation around the organism. We therefore hypothesize that Earth’s cumulative carbon fixed at certain periods has led to major evolutionary transitions such as the emergence of photosynthetic organisms, eukaryote and multicellular animals that fundamentally altered the Earth’s carbon cycle, accelerating it at certain points.

So we can think of the accumulated plant energy of an entire planet and acknowledge that planets with more plant growth as mediated by photosynthesis will tend to be warmer, wetter places than average. This gets interesting when we think about red dwarf planets, especially since these have enormous lifetimes and many are several billion years older than Earth. The authors make the case that these time factors provide no necessary advantage.

What counts is that life on a planet like TRAPPIST-1e, one of those studied here, would have lower rates of total photosynthesis because the surface receives correspondingly less light. Moreover, tidal lock on M-dwarf habitable planets would mean losing half their surface for photosynthesis. In this study, TRAPPIST-1e is found to have the capability of fixing no more than 21 percent of Earth’s carbon. An older world, but perhaps one with nothing more than microbial life.

We have interesting simulations of places like TRAPPIST-1e, climate maps that allow us to estimate how long it would take other planets to achieve the same amount of carbon fixed as we find on Earth. Of the 29 worlds considered potentially habitable by the authors, 27 are in fact orbiting red dwarf stars, and presumably tidally locked. Net Primary Production is calculated for each. The results are heavily weighted toward life at no more than microbial level:

If the biological evolutionary state is a function of cumulative carbon fixed and life began on each of the 29 exoplanets like it had on Earth, life on most of those 29 exoplanets would most likely be evolutionarily behind Earth (with two exceptions discussed below). The majority of our simulations led to most planets at the predicted microbial life stage with the exception of simulations using climates with 1 bar CO2. These very warm, wet planets accelerated NPP production which led about a third of the planets potentially ahead of Earth.

That sounds rather promising, but read on:

However, recent JWST observations showed no evidence of a thick carbon dioxide atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1c… or TRAPPIST-1e… therefore 1 bar CO2 may be unlikely on potentially habitable exoplanets. This raises the question of whether life can exist on an exoplanet with 1 bar CO2 in the atmosphere. CO2 concentrations in the early Earth may have been as high as 10 bar and up to ∼4,000 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere in the Cambrian (Royer, Reference Royer 2006), but 1 bar CO2 might not be conducive to land-based life.

The uncertainties here abound, as the authors are quick to acknowledge. We do not, in fact, know whether any of these planets actually have atmospheres in the first place. Nor, obviously, do we have any idea of their composition if they do exist. We have no knowledge about the presence of carbon at the surface, and also have to factor in the possibility of biological processes modifying the composition of any atmosphere present, just as Earth’s atmosphere was gradually transformed as the effects of photosynthesis began to be felt.

For that matter, can we assume that the life we are looking for uses carbon along the lines of life on Earth? If it does, this study predicts that most stars in our stellar neighborhood, despite sometimes being much older than Earth, are behind our planet when it comes to biological evolution. Two planets – GJ 1061c and K2-3d – do stand out as being of unusual observational interest for present and future space telescopes. Both are both larger and older than Earth.

This is useful information, given that our first thorough analyses of planets of Earth mass are going to occur with planets orbiting low mass stars. When we reach the point of instruments like Habitable Worlds Observatory that can image planets around G-class stars, the discouraging catalog analyzed in this paper may be replaced with a more positive one. If Doughty and team are right, however, we have an answer to the Fermi paradox and the time problem. Intelligent life has far fewer places on which to develop than we thought.

The paper is Doughty et al, Calculating potential cumulative carbon fixed and evolutionary stage for Earthlike planets in our solar neighborhood, International Journal of Astrobiology (2026). Published online by Cambridge University Press 22 September 2026. Full text.

International Workshop on Bounded Rationality In honour of Professor Reinhard Selten. Poznań, 5 October 2026

 On what would have been his 96th birthday, a hybrid (in person and online) conference in honor of the late Reinhard Selten.

 Here's the announcement: 

International Workshop on Bounded Rationality In honour of Professor Reinhard Selten – the man who changed the way we think about rationality,   Poznań, 5 October 2026 

Poznań University of Economics and Business – Hybrid event (on-site and online)

Dear Researchers, Doctoral Students and Students,

It is our great pleasure to invite you to a unique International Workshop on Bounded Rationality, held in honour of Professor Reinhard Selten – Nobel Laureate in Economics, co-founder of experimental economics and game theory, and a man deeply connected with Poznań, where he lived and passed away.

The event will take place on 5 October 2026, exactly on the day Professor Selten would have celebrated his 96th birthday. This is a perfect opportunity to pay tribute to his remarkable scientific legacy and to draw inspiration from his approach to the study of human rationality.

The event is held under the honorary patronage of the Rector of Poznań University of Economics and Business.

Why should you attend?

  • Outstanding speakers from around the world – including Prof. Rosemarie Nagel, Prof. Eyal Winter, Prof. Daniel Friedman, Prof. Werner Güth, Prof. Eric Guerci, Prof. Ido Erev, Prof. Vincent Crawford, Prof. Axel Ockenfels, Prof. Tibor Neugebauer and Prof. Karim Sadrieh.
  • Current research directions in bounded rationality – from game theory, through experimental economics, to behavioural finance.
  • A unique atmosphere – the workshop combines an on-site session in Poznań with online sessions, enabling participants from all over the world to take part.
  • Honouring Professor Selten’s legacy – his work continues to inspire researchers to push the boundaries of traditional economics.

A few words about the programme

The workshop is divided into three sessions:

  • Morning session– chaired by Prof. Marcin Anholcer. Speakers include Prof. Tibor Neugebauer, Prof. Rosemarie Nagel, Prof. Eyal Winter and Prof. Karim Sadrieh.
  • Afternoon session– chaired by Prof. Krzysztof Malaga. Talks will be given by, among others, Prof. Daniel Friedman, Prof. Werner Güth and Prof. Eric Guerci.
  • Final session– chaired by Prof. Tibor Neugebauer. Speakers include Prof. Ido Erev and Prof. Vincent Crawford.

Each scientific talk lasts 30 minutes. The full programme is presented below.

Workshop programme

All times are Central European Summer Time (CEST).

Morning session – chaired by Prof. Marcin Anholcer (Poznań University of Economics and Business)

  • 9:55 – Opening words · Prof. Marcin Anholcer, Vice-Rector for Scientific Research
  • 10:00 – Prof. Tibor Neugebauer (University of Luxembourg)
    Reinhard Selten’s Life and Bounded Rationality
  • 10:30 – Prof. Rosemarie Nagel (Universitat Pompeu Fabra & ICREA, Barcelona)
    Understanding Human Behavior and Games through Similarity. And how Selten Led Me to 2×2 Games
  • 11:00 – Prof. Eyal Winter (Hebrew University of Jerusalem & Lancaster University)
    Spillover Effects Across Interactive Environments and Social Pollution
  • 11:30 – Prof. Karim Sadrieh (University of Magdeburg)
    Selten’s Impulse Balance Equilibrium: a literature survey and a numerical approach
  • 12:00 – Lunch & informal discussion

Afternoon session – chaired by Prof. Krzysztof Malaga (Poznań University of Economics and Business)

  • 14:15 – Prof. Daniel Friedman (University of California, Santa Cruz)
    Evolving Overconfident Managers
  • 14:45 – Prof. Werner Güth (Max Planck Institute for Research on Behavioral Economics, Bonn)
    (Un)Absorbability of Behavioral Decision Theory — Ideal or Warning —
  • 15:15 – Prof. Eric Guerci (Université Côte d’Azur, Nice)
    Learning to Forecast: A lab-in-the-field experiment with finance professionals
  • 15:45 – Break
  • 15:45 – Prof. Axel Ockenfels (University of Cologne & Max Planck Institute for Research on Behavioral Economics, Bonn)
    Personal address

Final session – chaired by Prof. Tibor Neugebauer

  • 16:00 – Prof. Ido Erev (Technion — Israel Institute of Technology)
    The Coexistence of Under-Investment and Under-Diversification
  • 16:30 – Prof. Vincent Crawford (University of Oxford & UC San Diego)
    Strategic Thinking

Online participation – how to join?

The workshop can be followed free of charge online via the Zoom platform. Participants from all over the world are warmly welcome!

Zoom meeting link:
https://ue-poznan-pl.zoom.us/j/92747785836?pwd=9rDmnm33aD2YJeWNGZPmIkMghNYjpQ.1

Meeting chat link:
https://ue-poznan-pl.zoom.us/launch/jc/92747785836

Meeting ID: 927 4778 5836
Access code: 115438

Start time: 5 October 2026, 8:45 AM Warsaw time

 

A Normal Debate?

Computer scientists Arvind Narayanan & Sayash Kapoor wrote AI as Normal Technology

The statement “AI is normal technology” is three things: a description of current AI, a prediction about the foreseeable future of AI, and a prescription about how we should treat it. We view AI as a tool that we can and should remain in control of, and we argue that this goal does not require drastic policy interventions or technical breakthroughs. We do not think that viewing AI as a humanlike intelligence is currently accurate or useful for understanding its societal impacts, nor is it likely to be in our vision of the future.

AI has responded in video format.

that led Kapoor to create his own diss track:

Both of these are good, great even, but the sneering in the first video is sublime. Keep in mind that this is almost entirely AI, the script, the music, the lyrics everything. It seems like just yesterday when people said AI could never be creative.

Doesn’t seem like a normal debate to me, regardless of which side you think won.

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Life on a hair trigger

Graffiti on an underpass wall reads “PUT THE GUN DOWN” with arrows pointing down, illuminated by lights. Wet pavement in foreground.

A world of violence sustains itself through guns, poverty and other social ills, but also through the minds it creates

- by Megan Kang

Read on Aeon

What should I ask Tom Griffiths?

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him.  Looking at Wikipedia:

Thomas L. Griffiths (born c. 1978) is an Australian academic who is the Henry R. Luce Professor of Information Technology, Consciousness, and Culture at Princeton University. He studies human decision-making and its connection to problem-solving methods in computation. His book with Brian Christian, Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions, was named one of the “Best Books of 2016” by MIT Technology Review…

Griffiths released The Laws of Thought: The Quest for a Mathematical Theory of the Mind in 2026. Siobhan Roberts describes it as “a rigorous and captivating account of how cognition can be modeled via three mathematical frameworks: logic, artificial neural networks (“mathematical systems that emulate the operation of the brain”) and probability theory.”

Here is his research page, here is his new book on Amazon, I thought the book was excellent.

So what should I ask him?

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A Globalist Comeback?

Transcript

On September 28th Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, one of the most prominent, most successful financial figures in the United States, published an article in the Wall Street Journal titled, “The Hell with Trump, Let’s Go Back to Globalism.”

Okay, that’s a lie. That wasn’t what the article was titled, but it was, in effect, what it said.

And it was a very interesting message to be coming at this moment in time. I think Dimon’s op-ed can be viewed as a harbinger of a big shift in the business community’s political positions and its attitudes that may be coming in the very near future — in effect a bet that Trump and MAGA in general are going to be in the rearview mirror, not too far from now.

Now, a word about Dimon. He’s an extraordinarily successful financial leader. He navigated the 2008 financial crisis and aftermath better than almost anyone else in Wall Street. He had the good sense to limit JP Morgan’s exposure to the practices that helped to create that financial crisis.

He is also a very, very smart political operator. He has had a talent for not making enemies, for staying at least on decent relationships with administrations from both parties, which is no mean feat in 21st century America. He certainly did not join the cavalcade of business leaders rushing to prostrate themselves at Trump’s feet after the 2024 election, and yet he was subtle enough about his restraint to not get put on Trump’s enemies list. So,you know, his political judgment should be trusted.

His economic judgment, all right, being a great businessman is not at all the same thing as being a great economist. And there’s no particular reason to think that he is always right about economic affairs. But that is, in a way, mostly beside the point.

So what did Dimon call for? Well, he basically said, we need to repair theWestern alliance. We need to bring the Western world, the advanced democracies, above all the United States and Europe, back together in part as a way to stand up against the threat of a rising China. And his proposal for how to do that was to negotiate a free trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.

That’s quite something. That’s a very un-MAGA position to take. You want to bear in mind that, first of all, we’re currently under a government of people who do not at all believe in the virtues of free trade. In fact, are extremely hostile to globalism. Certainly don’t believe in binding international agreements. Maybe they want agreements that bind other countries, but not them.

And they are also not of the mind that we have a lot of shared values with the democratic governments of Europe. The MAGA position, if anything, is that they like the anti-democratic forces in Europe. J.D. Vance essentially campaigned for Viktor Orban in Hungary. Trump officials have been quite clear that they have sympathy for the AfD in Germany. So if we have common values with some Europeans, the Europeans with whom they have common values are neo-Nazis. And Trump’s de facto support for Putin in his invasion of Ukraine has been alarmingly clear over the past two years.

What we’re seeing here is Jamie Dimon basically saying that I don’t care about any of that. I don’t believe that you people are going to be in charge. And I think that we can go back to trying to rebuild bridges to Western Europe.

Now, it’s kind of interesting the way he phrases it. He puts a lot of it in terms that I suspect are intended to appeal to economic conservatives in the United States who are not MAGA types. He sells his proposal in part as an incentive for Europe to conduct pro-business, pro-economic reforms. He cites the Draghi report on European Competitiveness, which has been very influential in Europe. And points to him for even knowing about it! There are probably not a lot of people in the United States who have read the Draghi Report, absorbed its lessons.

I myself have read it. I have had some criticisms of some of the analysis in the Draghi Report, but the reforms that Draghi proposes, which have a lot to do with completing the European internal market, making the capital markets in Europe more flexible and responsive and so on, are very much in the right direction. So this is a good thing. And I’m glad to see someone in the United States, someone prominent, actually taking European affairs seriously and wanting the Europeans to do things that will improve their own position.

Dimon is almost surely overstating how important a free trade agreement with the United States could be. The reality is that the obstacles to European reform are internal — as are the obstacles to all the reforms we should be making here. Politics is real on both sides of the Atlantic.

And we are not as important to Europe — or they to us — as a lot of people imagine. The fact of the matter is that Europe only exports around 3% of what it produces to the US. And we were pretty close to free trade with Europe until Trump II came along. We had our average tariffs of only something on the order of 2% on European products. So it’s not as if he’s actually offering a tremendous benefit to Europe, something that would radically dislocate their internal politics and move them in a positive direction.

But, all right, it’s a good proposal. And I think that, as I understand it, Dimon believes that the process of negotiating towards a free trade agreement would in itself help to improve politics. That it would be a signal that the ultra-nationalist, anti-democratic, often anti-European policies of theTrump era are behind us.

So he’s looking forward to the day when we can start to try to repair some of the immense damage that has been done to our international relations during the Trump years.

Dimon is a smart political operator. I’m reasonably sure he would not have written this op-ed if the polls weren’t pointing towards a Democratic blowout. And of course, he could be wrong in believing that that’s going to happen, as we all could. But I’m sure that he is looking at the situation and envisaging a Democratic Congress — almost surely the House and quite likely the Senate — after the November election.

And a reasonable president, not necessarily a Democrat, but most likely, but in any case a reasonable president after Trump has gone from the scene.And a president and Congress that would be interested in trying to rebuild the Western alliance. Because ultimately, although Dimon’s proposal is economic in the narrow sense, it’s really political. It’s about rebuilding an alliance.

That won’t be easy. The fact of the matter is that the United States did just casually rip up solemnly signed trade agreements. Almost everything that Trump has done on tariffs is a violation of agreements made over several generations. Also, it’s not just Trump. The American people elected Trump twice, and the rest of the world is not going to forget that.

But free trade agreements can be a way of not just of enhancing trade, which is important, but maybe not as important as economists would like to think. But they can also be a way of binding countries closer together. They can be a gesture of alliance. And Diamond obviously thinks that this is possible, or at least thinks that it might be possible — close enough to being something that would really be on the table, that it’s worth making a case for it, and that it’s worth positioning himself and his institution for a post-MAGA era. And as Isaid, Diamond is a smart guy with a very, very good political judgment.

So that op-ed was one of the most encouraging things I’ve seen in months.

On that happy note, take care.

Connected Cars Are a Surveillance Platform

Researchers at Northeastern University, in collaboration with Consumer Reports, evaluated how much modern cars spy in their drivers:

The new Northeastern study shows, for the first time, data flowing among the vehicles, the vehicle apps you download when you buy your car, and third-party companies, documenting exactly what kind of data gets siphoned from our vehicles and which companies are receiving that information.

Basically, your car’s manufacturer has you under constant surveillance, and they use that data against you.

The companies on the receiving end of your data, our investigation has found, include car insurers and lenders that are partners in “telematics data exchanges,” which compile driving data on millions of drivers, thousands of data brokers that create personalized risk scores, companies selling infotainment and WiFi hotspot products, and even local and state government agencies working on planning, traffic, and safety initiatives.

Nearly every automaker sent data to outside companies.

Even more troubling, almost a quarter of the vehicle apps were found to be sending out personally identifiable information, including vehicle owners’ names, vehicle identification numbers (VINs), and precise geographic locations. That information can make it easy for companies to link driving behavior to personal data profiles created by data brokers and marketers. Such profiles are routinely sold to banks, insurers, pharmaceutical companies, lenders, and retailers, who can use it for personalized loan terms and filtered bank and insurance offers, a CR and CalMatters investigation found.

Remember the adage “If you’re not the customer, then you’re the product”? (The sentiment is older than you think.) Turns out that with modern internet-connected everything, you’re the product even if you are the customer.

Yankees Sweep Boston in Two Games, by Combined Score of 18-2

In the 6th inning last night the Yankees were only ahead 2-0, and Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras hit a home run, closing it to 2-1. Contreras decided to walk around the bases. The baseball gods do not look kindly upon that sort of jackassery.

In the next inning, Contreras wasn’t paying attention and his laziness allowed a Yankee to reach base after striking out on a wild pitch. That started the rally that resulted in the blowout final score.

 ★ 

Films of 2026: Q3

Today’s post is brought to you by my sponsor, Mechanize. They’re hiring junior software engineers at $300K/year base salary. Apply now!

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The Lying Life of Adults is a good TV series for Elena Ferrante fans. I enjoyed Midnight Taxi, but you’d want to start with the more accessible Midnight Diner if you are new to this genre. And Penance offers a relatively subtle form of J-horror. I also enjoyed Youtube discussions of Lolita and My Brilliant Friend.

For nonfiction, I’d highly recommend Vermeer: A Life Lost and Found for anyone interested in either Vermeer’s painting or the origins of liberalism. Vermeer is the only great artist from the past to have been forgotten for hundreds of years. Michael Pollan’s A World Appears provides a fascinating journey through consciousness research, even if we never reach the desired destination—What is consciousness? I read two very good books on architecture, Julius Shulman: Modernism Rediscovered and Frank Lloyd Wright: The Houses. Both have excellent photographs. I generally read picture books during my morning coffee. I also enjoyed Murakami’s Underground and Pico Iyer’s Autumn Light.

A read a few novels including Blood Meridian, Woodcutters, Ferdydurke, Chasing Homer, and A Borrowed Man/Interlibrary Loan. A highlight was Little, Big—highly recommended for fans of fantasy literature.

2026: Q3 films

Newer films:

Father Mother Sister Brother (US) 3.6 Jim Jarmusch is such an astute observer of people that his films are engrossing despite the almost total lack of plot. As with Ozu, the drama is often more effective when it is merely implied, not overt.

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (US) 3.6 With this film following on the heels of Backrooms and Obsession, it seems to be the year of Gen Z postmodern horror films.

Stranger Eyes (Taiwan, CC) 3.5 At the end of the film, you realize that the subject matter is not exactly what you might have been assuming.

Finding Emily (Britain) 3.5 The plot is predictable, but as always with romcoms it’s the details that matter. The fresh setting and a charming lead make it quite enjoyable.

The Invite (US) 3.5 Sort of like a Woody Allen film, but the middle third is funnier than anything Allen has done in a long time.

Yeah Yeah Yeahs: Hidden in Pieces (US) 3.3 A 22-minute concert film dedicated to David Lynch.

Romería (Spain) 3.3 The director is really good at showing family dynamics. There’s a good chance I’ll never make it to the Galicia region of Spain, but this film makes a nice substitute. As an aside, have you noticed how often writers refer to people from “Galicia”, and you are expected to know whether it’s Spain or Ukraine just by context?

The Odyssey (US) 3.3 For a while, I thought this film would be a major disappointment. In the end, however, Nolan gave us enough to redeem an overly long (3 hour) film. I have no problem with the fact that it’s a modern “woke” version of the epic, as every historical film is a reflection of the contemporary society and we live in a woke culture. But even though I was prepared for this, the 21st century dialogue can be a bit jarring for someone of my age.

It’s easy to see how the film could be improved. The somber tragic tone of the film drags over the three-hour length, until Homer’s plot supplies the necessary dramatic interest toward the end. Nolan should have deleted the first portrayal of the Trojan War (full of boring conventional Hollywood sword fighting) and relied solely of the second (more riveting) version.

I don’t understand why this film has received so much attention. There are no important stylistic innovations, and it’s neither particularly good nor bad. Perhaps because I’m 71 years old I no longer see the cultural zeitgeist that produces interest in some films and not others. ̄\_(ツ)_/ ̄

The Samurai and the Prisoner (Japan) This film got excellent reviews, and I couldn’t find any noticeable flaws. But it just didn’t work for me. That’s partly because it’s quite long and plot-driven, and partly because the ideas didn’t particularly interest me. And the visual style is often a bit bland. Because I had trouble following the plot during the first half of the film, I’m not giving it a numerical ranking. I feel the problem is partly me, not the film. You need to be in the mood to work hard, to be receptive. And I saw it immediately after the film below:

I Want Your Sex (US) 3.2 You’d have to be a pretty bad director to make an edgy sex comedy that isn’t entertaining, and Araki is a talented director. On the other hand, it mostly takes the easy way out, finding humor in mocking the contemporary art scene, the excesses of wokism, and the timidity of GenZ. Amusing, but don’t take grandma with you (unless she was at Woodstock.)

Hope (Korea) 3.0 A 2 hour and 40-minute film needs some gravitas. There are some exciting actions sequences, but the film’s almost cartoonish implausibility makes it impossible to suspend one’s disbelief, making the action drag in the last hour. The film’s (liberal) heart is in the right place, but it’s a disappointment from the director of a far better film--The Wailing.

Older films:

Tokyo Story (Japan, 1953, CC) 4.0 “Isn’t life disappointing?” . . . “Yes, it is.” But at least there’s some consolation in Ozu’s films.

Ozu reminds me of Vermeer. Both artists produced seemingly quiet, modest works of art that achieve transcendence through means that are difficult to discern. Both artists seem like pacifists. Both seem like feminists (in the non-political sense.) Almost every Vermeer painting of the 1660s is a masterpiece, and the same is true of Ozu’s films of the 1950s. So why is Tokyo Story the one always cited by critics? Perhaps because it combines a powerful emotional punch with detached philosophical insights—as if looking at life from above. It moves imperceptibly from mundane day-to-day life to pure poetry, without the viewer understanding how the film is affecting them. The emotional effects are intensified by a sort of hyperreality—eschewing the slightest bit of melodrama. Ozu avoids any sort of easy platitudes about life.

Rated the 4th greatest film ever made in Sight and Sound—and even that’s probably too low.

The Unbearable Lightness of Being (US, 1988, CC) 3.8 In an artistic sense, I’ve overrated this film. Philip Kaufman is a competent director, but nothing special. But this film meant a lot to me when I saw it back in 1988, and it holds up well today. Back in the 1980s, lots of young people (myself included) were really into Kundera novels. The film does a nice job of capturing the feel of the novel, and the actors and actresses are outstanding. It was interesting seeing how young Daniel Day-Lewis, Lena Olin, Juliette Binoche and Stellan Skarsgård were at the time this film was made. In 1988, I thought it was the coolest and most erotic film that I’d ever seen. Not sure how modern audiences would view it. I gather the producers weren’t able to film in Prague at the time, as it was still one year before the Berlin Wall came down. In a number of ways, the film reminded me of the recent TV series based on the Orhan Pamuk novel entitled The Museum of Innocence.

Once and a while you see a film and fall in love with one of the actresses. In this one, there are two such actresses.

Here’s Pauline Kael:

I didn’t remember anything of the Milan Kundera novel. But as the movie started I knew just what was coming next and I loved seeing it happen -- it was like a dream that you long to return to, and lo! there it is.

I share her enthusiasm.

Jackie Brown (US, 1997) 3.8 This may not be Tarantino’s “best” film, but it’s the one that I most enjoy watching. Lots of great acting, with the chemistry between Pam Grier and Robert Forster being a highlight of Tarantino’s career.

I Am Cuba (Cuba/Russia, 1964, CC) 3.8 As with Leni Riefenstahl’s Triumph of the Will and Frida Kahlo’s Portrait of Stalin, it is hard to evaluate works of art that are technically brilliant but also serve as propaganda for politically repulsive ideas. One silver lining is that the film was banned in the Soviet Union, presumably because by 1964 they were no longer interested in instilling revolutionary fervor in the population. So it can’t be all bad. Directed by the great Mikhail Kalatozov. Although I’m giving it the same rating as The Unbearable Lightness of Being, the reasons could not be more different.

The Fantastic Mr. Fox (US, 2003, CC) 3.8 Despite being only 84 minutes, the film dragged a bit in the second half. So why the high rating? Put simply, Wes Anderson has a more appealing and innovative style than any other 21st century director. Most directors simply put TV shows on the big screen; Anderson actually understands the specific medium of cinema. A delight for the eyes.

Flow (Belgium, 2024, CC) 3.7 Beautiful animation and a nice story about animals surviving a flood.

The Story of the Last Chrysanthemum (Japan, 1939, CC) 3.7 This Mizoguchi film has a plot that is reminiscent of the recent smash hit Kokuho, which also looked at the cost of seeking success in Kabuki.

Japón (Mexico, 2001, CC) 3.6 Reygadas’s first film seems clearly influenced by Kiarostami (particularly The Taste of Cherry.) This is certainly not a film most people would enjoy (it’s a film I respect more than I like), but the final scene showed that the director would be a force to be reckoned with.

To Live and Die in LA (US, 1985) 3.6 While this has all the strengths and weaknesses of a Friedkin’s film, the high points are enough to overlook its flaws (particularly the dumb plot.) I generally hate car chases, but Friedkin makes them so visceral that you suspend your disbelief. On the other hand, that 1980s music . . . yikes.

The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou (US, 2004) 3.6 A classic example of a film that doesn’t quite work but is nonetheless better than anything made by the vast majority of directors. Talent goes a long way, and Wes Anderson is exceedingly talented. The final scene in the submarine redeemed some of the slow stretches in the middle of the film. This might sound petty, but I was extremely annoyed when Amazon Prime cut away from the film at the beginning of its final credits. For most films that would not matter, but in this case the credits were one of the best parts of the film.

12:08 East of Bucharest (Romania, 2007, CC) 3.6 The film deserves its high rating, but I increasingly find this sort of “conceptual” film a bit difficult to sit through. Fortunately, the humor finally caught fire during the TV show in the second half. Oddly, my favorite scene was the streetlights at the very end, which was quite beautiful and very different from the rest of the film.

The Vanishing (Dutch, 1988, CC) 3.6 When it first came out, this film seemed very original and intriguing. Unfortunately, films that are plot driven tend to be slightly less impressive the second time around. And I feel like other directors have borrowed the basic idea. Still a very good film.

America did a remake of this film--with a happy ending. Hollywood at its worst.

The Whole Town’s Talking (US, 1935, CC) 3.6 Not as funny as the best screwball comedies (Bringing Up Baby, The Lady Eve, Arsenic and Old Lace, etc.), but very skillfully directed by John Ford.

Kanal (Poland, 1957, CC) 3.5 Although this is a very good film, I cannot really recommend it unless you have a strong stomach for horrifying scenes of the Warsaw Uprising near the end of WWII. Impressive, but not a fun watch.

La Vie de Bohème (France, 1992) 3.5 Aki Kaurismäki specializes in tragicomedies where people at the bottom of society maintain a stoic resignation about their fate. Most of his films take place in his native Finland, but this one is in France.

Two Lovers (US, 2008, CC) 3.5 It’s nice to have a romantic drama with characters that don’t wear out their welcome. Antisemites occasionally complain that “the Jews control” this or that industry. I’m tempted to respond, “You say that like it’s a bad thing.” Artists do their best stuff when they work with what they know. There are lots of talented Jewish directors and hence there are lots of good films with Jewish themes.

(Just imagine how pathetic my field (monetary economics) would be without the contribution of Jewish economists.)

Before Sunrise (US, 1995, CC) 3.4 The second time around I didn’t like it quite as much, but that might just reflect my age. A good film for a young couple to discuss on a dinner date. In today’s NYT, Jessica Grose says the following:

They relate in spite of cultural differences (he is American, she is French, they both talk to Austrians) and gendered ones, too. As I was replaying the movie in my mind, I had a thought that made my stomach drop: My children may never get to experience this. By “this” I mean the uninterrupted attention, general serendipity and conversational vulnerability that I got to experience before smartphones.

Cruel Story of Youth (Japan, 1960, CC) 3.4 Oshima’s first major film is ostensibly a story about juvenile delinquency, but it’s actually about the expressive power of technicolor images on a widescreen. It’s odd that so many of the best color films were made almost immediately after color replaced black and white filmmaking. Why did they stop making this sort of film?

Working Girls (US, 1986, CC) 3.4 Initially, I assumed I was watching a documentary, as it deglamorizes work in a brothel. With the passage of 40 years since it was filmed, it also has the patina of age. That is, not only is it looking at a world that is unfamiliar to most of us, but it’s also looking at an era that has new receded far into the past.

Zabriskie Point (US, 1970, CC) 3.3 This rating doesn’t really capture the film, as I found the first portion to be quite disappointing. It seemed like another case of a director losing their touch when transported to another culture. But Antonioni has a great eye, and the final section was stunning. I don’t ever recall seeing a film that captured the look and feel of 1970 as well as this one.

As I’ve aged, the world has seemed to become a bit greyer. In a book on consciousness written by Michael Pollan I came across this observation:

Hurlburt pointed out that the ability to generate inner experiences depends on cognitive resources that decline with age. For example, he’s found that as people get older, their inner seeing tends to deteriorate, fading from full color imagery to black and white. He cites [William] James, who writes that “the older men are and the more effective as thinkers, the more, as a rule, they have lost their visualizing power. . . . The present writer observes it in his own person most distinctly.” Hurlburt thinks that all forms of inner experience may be subject to the same fading over time.

I can’t honestly recommend Zabriskie Point, as it’s Antonioni’s weakest film. But in the end, it worked for me. It brought back the sensation of life in 1970. That’s priceless.

High Art (US, 1998, CC) 3.3 A young film magazine editor falls in love with a somewhat older photographer. One of those films where basically every aspect of the filmmaking is of high quality, but nothing quite stands out as unique or innovative. Thus, it ends up being a bit forgettable. I suppose that in 1998 the lesbian relationship would have counted as innovative.

Some Came Running (US, 1958, CC) 3.3 As with most 50s melodramas, much of the dialogue is kind of dumb. But there’s a lot of interesting commentary on how 1950s society was stratified by income and education. Shirley MacLaine does some serious overacting, but she somehow makes it work. When you’re talented, you can break all the rules.

State of Grace (US, 1990, CC) 3.3 Family crime drama in the style of Scorsese but marred by a shlocky ending. Nonetheless, it does have good acting and is certainly worth watching for fans of films like Mean Streets.

Thirst (Sweden, 1949, CC) 3.3 You can see many of the ideas that Bergman would develop in later films, but this one just didn’t work for me.

Review (US, 2015, CC) 3.2 This film is only 4 minutes and 22 seconds long and consists entirely of a woman having a drink with friends and discussing a recent film that she watched. (I also saw three other experimental short films by the same director.)

I guessed the film in question after the very first sentence, where she described a car emerging from smoke. I suspect that’s because I’m an unusually visual filmgoer. In the late 1970s, I watched Strangers on a Train at the University of Chicago. After it ended, film critic Andrew Sarris asked the large audience what happened near the beginning of the film, after the feet of the two men brushed against each other. I recall being surprised that no one in the audience seemed to recall, so I finally spoke up, mentioning how the train switched track. I wonder if most viewers would see that as irrelevant information. On the other hand, I’m pretty bad at following movie plots.

Mr. Thank You (Japan, 1936, CC) 3.2 A pleasant road movie that takes place on a bus, but far below the level of It Happened One Night.

I Saw the TV Glow (US, 2024, CC) 3.1 Same director as the much better Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma. The first half was intriguing, but then it sort of fell apart.

Arbitrage (US, 2012, CC) 3.1 Competent thriller, but a bit bland and unoriginal. The plot is reminiscent of Bonfire of the Vanities.

Married to the Mob (US, 1988, CC) 3.0 This film takes a while to catch fire, and initially I worried it was going to be another example of how older comedies often no longer seem funny. But the final portion was passable screwball comedy, just barely watchable.

Nowhere Boy (UK, 2009, CC) 3.0 As with the recent Dylan biopic, this film tends to ramp up the brooding, tortured poet aspect of Lennon’s personality, at the expense of his mix of whimsical and sarcastic humor.

Dangerous Game (US, 1993, CC) 3.0 Although it was panned by critics, the film is a mildly interesting look at high intensity filmmaking.

The Good Nurse (US, 2022) 3.0 Some very good acting, but not the sort of film I find at all interesting. Two hours I’ll never get back.

Violent Saturday (US, 1955, CC) 3.0 Typical 1950s widescreen technicolor melodrama grafted onto a bank heist film. Mildly entertaining in a campy sort of way.

Bigger Than Life (US, 1956, CC) 3.0 Some regard this Nicholas Ray directed film as one of the great movies of the 1950s, but despite some technically brilliant scenes it seemed to me more like a curiosity. Rarely has 1950s America looked so strange and outdated. That made the film interesting but also prevented me from being able to suspend my disbelief.

Synecdoche (US, 2008) 2.9 This film is bursting with ideas. Unfortunately, the ideas are not very compelling. Knowing the fate of Phillip Hoffman makes this already depressing film feel even more glum.

Zegen (Japan, 1987, CC) 2.9 Disappointing Imamura black comedy that satirizes Japan’s colonial aspirations. The satire is too heavy handed and repetitive.

God’s Crooked Lines (Spain, 2022) 2.9 The Spanish seem to enjoy plot twists, and as with Money Heist this film overdoes it. In most respects, this is not a bad film. But it’s far too long for such a weak payoff.

Art School Confidential (US, 2006, CC) 2.9 A few interesting parts, but it never came together as a coherent story. It’s hard to make a good film about artists.

Bad Influence (US, 1990, CC) 2.8 The plot of this noir has some similarities to Strangers on a Train. Unfortunately, whereas Robert Walker created a memorable character in the Hitchcock classic, Rob Lowe is just a pretty face—a completely forgettable villain. The plot becomes increasingly implausible as the film progresses.

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Why Bolinas is Fighting the Environmentalists

Over the past year or so, I’ve had on my journalism hat and been investigating the Environmental Action Committee of West Marin, prompted by their petitions to the California Fish and Game Commission to increase restrictions on some six-plus miles of our coast that will make some of our local fishing (and gathering) illegal.

It’s a very tangled issue where we — the vast majority of locals and businesses — are opposed to the EAC’s attempted interference in our lives. (Bolinas is a famously green, self-reliant town that is a significant producer of vegetables and fish in the San Francisco Bay Area.)

The EAC Duxbury Reef Petition Now Before The California Fish and Game Commission (CFGC)

It’s a tangled mess, but here are the salient facts.

Duxbury Reef is already a State Marine Conservation Area (SMCA).

The petition, which will be decided upon by the California Fish and Game Commission (CDFGC) on October 13-16, 2026, would expand the present area greatly. It would ban taking shellfish (mussels), gathering seaweed north of Agate Beach (both already banned at Agate Beach), and potentially ban fishing. (The EAC says they want to protect fishing, but we don’t believe them; read between the lines and see for yourself.)

The “clarifying language” they advocate will make it virtually impossible to fish from shore or boat. They are still pushing for a no-take reserve, but going through the back door — typical of their slippery tactics.

I doubt if many members of the EAC have ever gone north of Agate Beach and seen the mussel beds, which are massive and healthy and have provided food for families relying on coastal food — going back to Coast Miwok times.

There is Nothing Wrong With Duxbury Reef

The EAC submitted a petition to CDFG with no site-specific verified scientific evidence that Duxbury Reef is ecologically degraded or that current protections are failing. Comprehensive and widely available data from the University of California, Santa Cruz, of a long-term intertidal monitoring site at the center of the conservation area, was omitted. This 20-year study shows a thriving and stable ecosystem, with no documented collapse.

And I can tell you this from personal observation — I’m a 3rd generation California fisherman (sport, not commercial) — and have fished on the reef for over 50 years, and the reef has never looked healthier. Fisherman Josh Churchman (who’s been fishing here for almost 60 years) says “The ocean is healthy right now.” Rob Knowles, whose family has been in Bolinas for 150 years, knows the reef better than anyone and attests to its present good health.

My grandfather, Fred Kahn, had a bait and tackle shop at the foot of Hyde Street in San Francisco during the 1920s. (It later became Munii Bait.) Here he’s sitting on a pier. Note blimp in background.

I am not advocating for an unregulated coast. I am calling for rules addressing demonstrated problems.

The True Guardians of Duxbury Reef

We are the guardians, not elite outsiders. By “we,” I mean all the locals, all the visitors, all the people who fish in Bolinas.

If the EAC or any of the commissioners would venture around the point, to the area north of Agate Beach — the area in which they want to ban shellfish harvesting and seaweed gathering — they would see a huge and healthy bed of mussels, which has been a source of food and is living proof of our respect for the natural world. It’s unregulated and thriving.

Has anybody asked the Coast Miwoks — who harvested sustainably (and even raised clams) on the reef for centuries — what they think of the EAC petition?

Over 100 Local Businesses Oppose the EAC Petition

This is only.a p;artial list.

What Can You Do? (Time is of the Essence!)

Write:

gavin.newsom@gov.ca.gov

fgc@fgc.ca.gov

COPCpublic@resources.ca.gov

Subject: Please Oppose Duxbury Reef Petition 2023-32MPA in Full

Suggested wording; put in your own words as much as possible:

Dear Governor Newsom, Members of the Ocean Protection Council, and Fish and Game Commissioners,

Please oppose Duxbury Reef Petition 2023-32MPA in full, including its proposed boundary expansions. I support protecting our coast through conservation that respects public access, local livelihoods, and coastal traditions.

Just like the Point Reyes ranches, Duxbury is about more than a place. It is about food, livelihoods, traditions, and people’s connection to the coast. This is an opportunity to protect nature without pushing coastal communities out.

[Share your connection to Duxbury Reef and how this proposal could affect you, your family, or your community.]

Before restricting access further, the state should demonstrate why additional restrictions are necessary using site-specific evidence and meaningfully involve the people affected. Please deny this petition and support collaborative approaches that protect both marine life and responsible access.

Sincerely, [Your name] [Your city or address]


Early Environmentalism

I was around when environmentalism was born (on a large scale). I was an editor on the Whole Earth Catalog and witnessed firsthand the many countercultural changes of the ’60s. Not just environmentalism, but organic farming, owner-building, political activism, civil rights, women’s liberation, gay rights, free speech, non-Christian religions, a host of other things, and yes — sex, drugs and rock ‘n’ roll.

My beat up (and extremely rare) copy of the first Whole Earth Catalog

These concepts were not new, but they were seized upon and brought to the fore by the largest population group in American history — the baby boomers — as hopeful guidelines for a new world.

Environmentalism was real then. The first Earth Day was in 1970.

But as the years have passed, business interests have seen an opportunity: They have formed groups and are calling themselves environmentalists.

This is quite different from the sincere environmentalism the ’60s and ’70s. It’s shocking, and — guess what — it’s nationwide.

I’ve been gathering information on this issue — elite environmentalists closing down local food production and eliminating local workers’ jobs and homes in favor of their concept of “wilderness" — for maybe a year. And learned that these “environmental” organizations are actually well-funded businesses.

And — can we talk? — I’ve been researching this modus operandi for maybe a year now and I find myself in over my head, partly due to my age, partly due to my non-linear brain pattern, and partly because I have so much else going on in my life right now.

I have piles of printouts, articles, graphics and other information on the subject, in addition to 37 email folders with saved information. I don’t feel I can organize all this into the article or series of articles that the subject deserves. I need help.

Seeking an Investigative Reporter

It’s a national story that I believe worthy of publication in media such as The New Yorker, The Atlantic, Mother Jones, The Intercept, Pro Publica, etc.

Matt Bond of the All Waters Protection and Access Commission came up with the following phrase on the phone the other day, which is both accurate if you understand what’s going on (statewide and nationally), and a possible title for an article:

The Environmental Industrial Complex

What’s happening in our small town is indicative of an undocumented and frequently under-the-radar coordination in California by various groups that purport to be environmentalists — who are trying to take over management of the state’s resources. Look but don’t touch. Eliminate local food production so you can drive your car out into the country to observe “wilderness,” but don’t go fishing or hunting or gathering. It’s now “scenic landscape.” Urban Recreation.

If you are a reporter, and interested, contact me. I will be glad to pass along an enormous amount of information on the subject.

Deja vu: Orville Schell published a book called The Town That Fought To Save Itself in 1976, when young people in Bolinas staged a recall election and stopped the town from adopting a plan for large scale suburbanization, construction of a big marina, and a heliport. Here we have The Town That Fought To Save Itself Again.

“Environmentalists” Shutting Down Local Food Production

I’ve watched the Environmental Action Committee of West Marin from the sidelines for too many years. In the name of environmental protection, they have helped eliminate major West Marin suppliers of local organic food, and played a major role in terminating local jobs and forcing generally low-income people out of their homes. Now they are threatening our local fishing rights.

Here is some of the damage they’ve done in West Marin in closing down local food production in the name of “environmentalism.”

OYSTERS

The Drake’s Bay Oyster Company was producing 400-500,000 pounds of organic protein per year. No feeding, no plowing, no fertilizers or insecticides — and the oysters helped purify the water.

The farm’s lease had expired, but in 2009, Congress gave the Secretary of Interior “discretionary 10-year renewal authority” and Senator Dianne Feinstein encouraged the Secretary (Salazar) to do so.

BTW, the Lunnys spent hundreds of thousands of dollars cleaning up the mess left by the farm’s former operators.

The EAC went all in on alleging damage caused by the oyster farm. They claimed harbor seal disturbance, eelgrass damage, “disturbance and damage” to the estero’s wildlife and habitats, encouragement of invasive species, water pollution, and motorboat usage. None of this was accurate.

The EAC did everything in its power to see that the renewal was denied — which it was.

A half-ton of organic protein per year formerly produced in West Marin: gone. In the 12 years since it’s been closed, that’s over 200 tons of protein!

POINT REYES RANCHES

BEEF

There were about 1400 head of cattle on eight Point Reyes ranches. Live weight per steer: average 1400 pounds, producing 1000 pounds of grass-fed beef, which, when trimmed and packaged, was about 500 pounds per head. 1400 times 500= 700,000 pounds of beef a year produced on local grass.

Three quarters of a million pounds of organic protein per year formerly produced on West Marin grass: gone

DAIRY

There were about 3300 dairy cows on the peninsula, each producing an average of 10 gallons of milk per day.That’s 33,000 gallons of milk per day, or 12 million gallons of per year.

Reduce that figure by half because about half of the feed for dairy animals was imported, and you have:

Six million gallons of grass-fed organic milk per year formerly produced in West Marin: gone

This is the opposite of environmentalism. 500,000 pounds of oysters, 3/4 of a million pounds of beef, 6 million gallons of milk every year— all eliminated due to actions by the Environmental Action Committee of West Marin and affiliates.

JOBS AND HOMES

The EAC and affiliates played major roles in eliminating jobs and homes for over 130 people between the oyster farm and the ranches.

Here’s an excerpt from an LA Times article by By Jessica Garrison, March 21, 2025, titled “Treasured California dairies to close. Point Reyes locals say it’s conservation gone mad”

“Why would anyone want to destroy one of the most preeminent areas for organic farming in the country in the name of the environment?

What’s more, the closing of the historic dairies means not just that legacy families and their cows will have to leave, but so will many dairy workers and ranch hands who have lived on the peninsula for decades. An entire community, many of them low income and Latino, are poised to lose their jobs and homes in one fell swoop.…”


On April 9, 2026, the Point Reyes Light, our Pulitzer Prize-winning local newspaper, ran a poignant photo essay titled “The Last Year” by David Mackie on the destruction of not only the ranches, but a way of life for over 100 people by a contingent of elitist environmental organizations. It was heartbreaking.

Above two photos reprinted with permission by Pt. Reyes Light and David Mackie

And yes, the ranchers got buyout payments, but:

1, It wasn’t nearly enough to buy a comparable ranch anywhere in Marin County

  1. They settled because, according to The Point Reyes Seashore Ranchers Association, it let them “…avoid an even more disruptive, uncertain, protracted, and less favorable outcome…” They took the buyout rather than gambling on losing outright legally and getting nothing.

Note To EAC Contributors

I know good people who have done so, who haven’t seen under the EAC’s smokescreen, or realize the damage they are doing to local food production, fishing rights, and to people’s jobs and homes.

What they are doing is the opposite of environmentalism.

If you’re a contributor, I urge you to do your own research to see if you really want to contribute to this group’s agenda.

Our Local Group: Save Duxbury Access (SDA)

Save Duxbury Access is a grassroots group of Bolinas residents who believe in protecting Duxbury Reef while keeping access open for fishing (both commercial and recreational), tightly regulated shellfish and kelp gathering, surfer access, tidepooling, and reef educational programs. Protecting access ensures that our children will nurture a connection with nature and continue our longstanding tradition of responsible stewardship in Bolinas, California.

Email: saveduxburyaccess@gmail.com

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/save.duxbury.access/

The State of My Stack

To tell the truth, I’d rather be posting on positive matters. I have a backlog of wonderful things to tell people about, and I haven’t yet hit my stride on Substack. So I’m posting this overall picture of our town’s ongoing battle and, as well, doing an Instagram post asking people to write the California Fish and Game Commission and Governor Newsom, which must be done soon. Then I’ll get back to the positive, exciting stuff I see going on in the world.

BTW, I’m not gonna get involved in an endless comment-and-response morass here. I’m broadcasting my findings and then getting on with my preferred role as communicator of good stuff going on in the world.

Bain Capital Brainstorms Where The AI Revenue’s Gonna Come From

Toronto, Canada - February 22, 2025: AI virtual assistant apps on a smartphone - DeepSeek, xAI Grok, and OpenAI ChatGPT.

A friend sent me this new Bain Capital study on the growth required to match the current levels of capital expenditure on AI, essentially breaking down the cost of the data center and other associated build outs. It’s an interesting document, not simply for the number-crunching and the predictions, but as a document in the more literary and analytic sense. Needless to say, Bain isn’t coming at this from any “boo capitalism!”/”this is insane lol” viewpoint. But the conclusions aren’t that far from the “this is insane lol” position. It’s very much, “hey! we can do this” but also, “um … wow, there’s quite a lot to do.”

The broad stroke numbers are these. The study says that to keep up with the current levels of capital expenditures AI will need to become a $6 trillion dollar market by 2031. (To give some perspective on that number, a recent Gartner study predicted that global IT spending will be just under $6.4 trillion this year. So devices, hardware, software, services, kind of everything.) It then posits that we can see the beginnings of, with some level of out-year predictability, something on the order of a $1.5 trillion market — which would be made up of a greatly expanded consumer market (Claude apps, ChatGPT, etc.) of between $200 and $400 billion and then an enterprise market (software, sales, marketing, business optimization) of between $1 and $1.4 trillion. So we’re left with about $4.5 trillion to go. That’s where the crash course in innovation comes in.

Bain sees four key areas: search and ad growth ($200M to $400M); “autonomous everything” ($400B); physical AI ($900B); and then rounding out the list is “new product development.” You can see the breakdown in this chart. The gray part we might cheekily call “real”; the red part is well, other stuff.

First a few thoughts from someone with fairly limited insight. “Search and ad growth” seems highly LOL to me. That’s something I know a little about. It’s not hard to imagine there are going to be a lot autonomous things. So, okay, maybe. I have no idea. “Physical AI” is quite interesting, however much value it will generate. Really everything we’re talking about in the AI space today is LLMs, large language models. That’s about producing human-like language and something that looks a lot like cognition. Physical AI is about modeling things that happen in three dimensional space. Basically it looks toward lots of testing that wouldn’t have to take place in the real three dimensional world anymore but could be done in computer models. I have no ability to know how much value this would generate. (Here’s an article I read earlier today about AI “godfather” and Turing prize winner Yann LeCun; he’s skeptical about the purported dangers of AI and has his own company which seems to be focused on physical AI.) Then, finally, rounding out the list and responsibility for about half the $6 trillion is the category that might be termed “other stuff we haven’t even been able to think up in concept yet.”

There are two prisms through which it seems wise to look at this. First is that if you went back to, say, 1995, we couldn’t even begin to imagine all the forms of productivity and wealth creation would be generated by building out the architecture of the internet. So “other stuff” … well, there’s probably going to be quite a lot of other stuff we haven’t thought of yet. I’ve piled in a decent amount of snark in this post, I think quite fairly. But I do want us to slow down and appreciate this point. There are just so many entirely new forms of economic activity that the globe has come up with over the last 30 years. That said, almost none of that breakdown of the $6 trillion is current revenue. About a quarter of it is massive growth of existing things. Another quarter and more is highly speculative, but at least things that we can point to in their outlines. And half is in the ‘we have no idea and better start innovating quickly’ category.

The second prism is that we’re not talking here about Star Trek time. Things that will transform society over decades or a century. This all has to happen by 2031, so five years from now.

It’s a lot.

My excellent Conversation with Luis Garicano

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary:

Tyler and Luis start their conversation with Spain — housing, NIMBYism, and the productivity crisis; Spanish literature and why the Civil War still looms so large; and what Chicago taught Luis about party discipline in European politics. Then to the EU’s unanimity problem, capital markets, and Denmark’s flexicurity model; a round of overrated-versus-underrated on Rosalía, Penélope Cruz, and Sgt. Pepper’s; and finally into Messy Jobs — why retraining programs fail, whether AI’s leisure dividend has arrived, and whether Spain could ever achieve AI sovereignty.

Excerpt:

COWEN: Why is there a current productivity crisis in Spain?

GARICANO: Productivity indeed hasn’t grown for three decades, more or less. We’re currently having extensive growth. We’re having immigration, we’re having tourism, but we don’t really have productivity. A lot of it has to do with the political economy. I think if you want to explain the West, not just Spain, you have to understand who is voting and who is this being governed for. Spain is a particularly low-fertility, high life-expectancy country. We have the fifth-lowest fertility and the fifth-highest life expectancy in the world grosso modo, and very high pensions.

Essentially, all the GDP growth we’ve had has gone, 100 percent of the GDP growth we’ve had since 2008 has gone to pensions, to the pensioners. In terms of investment, there is very little in terms of productive investment. We have this fantastic highway network and this high-speed rail network. It’s not really getting the maintenance it needs. Just as one example, the country is basically being governed by and for the older retired people.

COWEN: What does the optimistic scenario look like? You don’t have to predict it’s going to happen, but lay out for me how it could all go well. You would get productivity growth of 1.5 percent a year, and economic growth a bit higher than that.

GARICANO: Spain has amazing fundamentals for the current situation, meaning we could easily be very electricity-energy rich due to solar, wind, and nuclear. We have all this empty space where you could put nuclear plants without much resistance. In fact, we are closing them for political reasons. The energy could be a big advantage. It’s a really amazing place to live. There is no more diverse geography and climate and nature anywhere in Europe, I think, or close to, and beautiful. You could easily see a situation where Spain becomes Florida, or Austin, Texas. Think of Texas. It attracts technology, attracts talent who wants to live there, attracts energy, builds the data centers, et cetera. That scenario is not impossible. The political economy is the tricky part.

COWEN: Doesn’t that mean you actually don’t have good fundamentals? You said you don’t even have a YIMBY movement. Life there really is quite good. I’ve been many times. It’s one of my favorite countries to visit. Isn’t that like a resource curse where there’s no sense of crisis? Old people live for a long time. It’s very comfortable. The weather’s great. The food is amazing. Aren’t those, in fact, liabilities in a time of very rapid change?

And another, on a very different topic:

COWEN: On Messy Jobs, your new and excellent book, you argue very persuasively, “In my view, AI will not lead to anything like mass unemployment, maybe not even to a rise in unemployment, because jobs will become messier and the AIs won’t be able to do them.” Is that a fair description of part of your argument?

GARICANO: I think that’s completely right. Yes.

COWEN: Now, I agree with you, but I think my worry is the opposite, that I know a lot of people, they want simple jobs, they’re okay with some measure of tedium, and that if most jobs become messy jobs, for them, that’s quite stressful, and they’re upset and disoriented. Do you worry about that?

GARICANO: I think that we will have to have a tolerance for human relations. Is that what your friends don’t want? We have a tolerance for relational work that is complex, that has politics in it, that has a big human component, and that’s the part that is going to stay. If people just want to be in their desk typing away, I think two good ways to think about it is work from home and outsourcing. If you think of which jobs were offshored, let me say offshored, in the big offshoring wave to India, those are jobs that are not messy. They’re clean. The company specifies the jobs. They say, “Okay, we can specify this job perfectly. Let’s ship you up.”

Those jobs are the same exact ones that are under complete threat of disruption. A lot of the work from home, when it doesn’t involve a lot of submittings, I guess, has the same feature. Those jobs are clean, single-task, and very often verifiable. You can just see how the performance is going and have your RL, your reinforcement learning loop work on those. I think those are gone.

The messy component that I want to emphasize, many people will say, “Oh, AI will tend to the messiness as well.” I think that there is some messiness that is contingent and that AI can streamline, but there is a lot of messiness that is both relational and has to do with a deeper aspect of the knowledge problem that doesn’t really go away. As AI advances, many aspects of Hayek, Polanyi, and all these knowledge problems are still there.

COWEN: How much retraining will be required and how frequent will that retraining have to be? If I think of me working with agents, I have to retrain myself every month or two. That’s difficult for me. It’s not stressful given my position, but I can imagine it would be stressful. Can we really just put a big chunk of the labor force through that?

Definitely recommended.

The post My excellent Conversation with Luis Garicano appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Some Depressing ALWC Tidbits

The Red Sox had a Win Expectancy Percentage over 50% for only two plate appearances in the two games. Both fleeting moments came early (or early-ish) in Game 2.

In the top of the third, after Nate Eaton doubled (0-0, 1 out), it was 52%.
When Jahmai Jones struck out looking, it dropped to 48%.

In the top of the fourth, after Willson Contreras walked (0-0 0 out), it was 54%.
Wilyer Abreu struck out (50%). Ceddanne Rafaela flied to center (47%).

Sarah Langs

26 scoreless innings vs the Red Sox dating to last year was the most consecutive scoreless innings pitched in the postseason by the Yankees vs a single opponent
h/t @EliasSports

The Yankees have won consecutive games by 7+ runs, tied with 1961, 1960 and 1937 for the longest single-postseason streak in franchise history
Only one team has won 3 straight by 7+ in a single postseason: 2007 Red Sox

+16 is tied with 1951 WS G4-5 for the second-highest run differential in a 2-game span in Yankees postseason history, behind only: 1960 WS G2-3: +23

Yankees pitchers opened this postseason with 14 consecutive scoreless innings
That’s the second-longest scoreless streak by NYY pitching to start a postseason, behind 20 IP in 1921
This is their 61st postseason appearance
h/t @EliasSports

This is the first time the Yankees have scored 9+ runs in consecutive postseason games since doing so in 3 straight 2020 ALWCS G1-2 and ALDS G1, which tied a franchise-record such streak (also done in 1998)

Fastest-tracked OF assists in postseason under Statcast (2015):
2016 ALDS G1 Jackie Bradley Jr.: 105.1 mph
2023 ALDS G1 Matt Wallner: 99.2 mph 
2026 ALWCS G2 Nate Eaton: 99.1 mph [Eaton threw out Ben Rice at the plate]

Most Common Postseason Matchups, MLB History
Yankees-Dodgers: 12 series (NYY leads, 8-4)
Yankees-Red Sox: 7 (NYY, 4-3)
Yankees-Cleveland: 7 (NYY, 5-2)
Yankees-Giants: 7 (NYY, 5-2)

OptaSTATS

The Yankees are the first team in MLB history to score at least 90% of the runs in a postseason series (min. 20 total runs).

The whitesox are the first team in MLB history to hold the lead at the end of every single inning of a multi-game postseason series.

The Padres are the first team in MLB history to hold the highest-scoring team in the majors during the regular season to just one run (or none) in a multi-game postseason series.
The previous low for runs scored by the regular-season scoring leader in a multi-game postseason series was 3 (Orioles held the White Sox to 3 runs in the 1983 ALCS).

Lowest slugging percentage in a multi-game postseason series, MLB history:
.145 - 2026 Cubs (NLWC)
.153 - 2020 Twins (ALWC)
.154 - 2022 Rays (ALWC)
.174 - 1998 Rangers (ALDS)
.179 - 2019 Cardinals (NLCS)

Katie Sharp @SharpStats17

Spencer Jones #FunFact
Jones is the first player in the play-by-play era (since 1910) to strike out twice and steal a base in an inning in any game (postseason or regular season).

Jones also scored in that inning, making his feat perhaps even harder to match, though if your team is batting around and you were on base, you probably scored a run. (Whatever. If Someone Named Spencer Jones is ever known for anything, it will be only this.)

Going back to Langs's list, how is it possible that the second-most common postseason matchup in all of MLB history are two teams from the same goddamn division? That is not how things should be. This is what happens when people who hate baseball are allowed to run baseball . . . into the ground.

After my YED 2026 hangover dissipates, I'll be doing game stories for the World Series.

Roundup #89: It isn’t X, it’s Y

Photo by SK5893 via Wikimedia Commons

I’m having a lot of fun writing shorter posts and aggregating interesting items these days. A lot of people are putting out an astonishing amount of good content these days, and sometimes I just want to sit there absorbing it all.

1. AI risk has gone mainstream

Americans have been deeply pessimistic about AI for a while now, but their reasons for pessimism — or at least, the reasons they tell pollsters — have changed in recent months. Earlier this year, Americans were mostly concerned that AI would take their jobs. Now, they’re more concerned that AI is getting too powerful for humans to control:

Echelon didn’t poll people about the idea that autonomous AI would destroy humans on purpose. But they did ask about bioterror risk, which I’ve been yelling about for a while now. And it turns out that Americans are pretty worried about that:

Surprisingly, the issue hasn’t fallen victim to partisan polarization yet. As you can see in the chart above, Trump voters and Harris voters are about equally as concerned about humanity losing control of AI. And despite Trump’s staunch stance in favor of acceleration, a lot more Republicans want to slow AI development down:

Meanwhile, economists have gotten in on the AI risk debate — which is how you know it’s really gone mainstream. Drew Fudenberg and Andrew Koh have a new game theory paper about “pacing the frontier” — i.e., about whether it makes sense for top AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI to slow down AI development in order to allow “alignment” research time to catch up.

It’s a very cool model. Basically, the idea is that every company has a competitive incentive to make its AI more powerful as fast as possible, in order to stay ahead of the other companies. But if you’re comfortably ahead, you can afford to slow down a little bit, for safety’s sake — because in this model, if AI gets too powerful before safety research can catch up, everyone could die. So you can get a sort of stop-start pattern where the leading company voluntarily slows down for a while, until its competitors start nipping at its heels again. You can almost sort of see this happening, with Anthropic refusing to allow the public to access Mythos earlier this year, and OpenAI recently pausing development of its top models after some of them hacked the government.

There’s also the case where there’s no clear market leader, in which case companies have to basically agree to all slow down together. In this case, what you really need is transparency — the companies have to all see that the others aren’t secretly racing ahead behind their backs. That might be easier said than done — it’s not clear how to monitor all the AI labs in the world to each other’s satisfaction.

But one positive result is that if the risk of “doom” is high enough, slowing down becomes the only rational option. That’s cool! Unfortunately, this is just one model, which might not hold in reality. Game theory was famously unreliable when people applied it to the Cold War — a small change in assumptions could flip the optimal strategy from “the only winning move is not to play” to “nuke em all and let God sort em out.” Game theory yielded important conceptual insights — especially the importance of “second strike” capability in preventing conflict — but it rarely gave definitive answers.

So where might this current model break down? I don’t think it’s clear how fast AI safety research is really advancing. If “pacing the frontier” only works by giving safety research time to catch up, and safety research isn’t really advancing, then we’re all in big trouble.

Anyway, Andrew Koh has a great thread summarizing the paper, and some folks made a fun online game based on the model if you’d like to play around and see how it works. Cool stuff!

2. Reindustrialization means processing minerals

Two years ago, in order to create a little urgency around reindustrialization, I wrote a post sizing up the “New Allies” (America, Europe, Japan, Korea, possibly India) and the “New Axis” (China and Russia). The comparison of raw manufacturing output was about equal, though China dominated a lot of the bottlenecks for raw materials processing and critical component manufacturing.

Now, Alexander Campbell has done another version of the “bottlenecks” comparison, but with nicer charts:

Campbell Ramble
Consilience of Curves
In the coming weeks and months we’ll be rebuilding the portfolio from scratch. While we were out, Leo got liquidated by margin debt, so call it a theme. Ours was owing to various compliance and ethics regulations rather than prime brokers, but a forced seller is a forced seller. Perhaps the worst part of the hiatus was leaving you readers in the lurch, …
Read more

In this chart, he shows how the roles have basically reversed since WW2:

And here’s where we stand when it comes to the raw materials of the all-important Electric Tech stack:

The key here is that China doesn’t mine most of these minerals — it refines them. Other countries dig up the ore and ship it to China, and China uses a bunch of chemical engineering to turn them into usable materials for industry. Most of the world shipped their metal refining to China, because it’s a dirty, capital-intensive, low-margin industry. But now as a result, China controls a bunch of key industrial chokepoints.

The Trump administration, to their credit, is taking this seriously, and is launching lots of initiatives — international partnerships, industrial policies, even scrap metal conservation — to try to get out from under the Chinese thumb. But we need to do a lot more if we’re going to be able to sustain an independent industrial base without bowing and scraping to Xi Jinping.

3. The rent crisis isn’t quite as bad as you think

I spent much of the last decade blogging about the rent crisis and the need to build more housing. In the post-pandemic inflation of 2021-22, rent stood out as a big sore spot — it was an expensive necessity whose price was going up very quickly. But I recently saw a chart from Apartment List showing that since 2022, rent has basically stabilized and even fallen back to its pre-pandemic trend:

Source: Apartment List via John Arnold

This isn’t just because inflation fell. Inflation has stayed above target since 2022, but rent has actually fallen — at least if you believe Apartment List’s data. And there are also lots of stories out there about rents falling in expensive cities.

But what about affordability? I’d like to look at rent compared to median personal income, but median personal income data only comes out very slowly. Instead, we can compare rent to average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers, which tends to track median income decently well:

We can see that the 2010s rent crisis was very real. And we can also see that the pain from the post-pandemic inflation actually showed up a little later, in 2022-23 — probably because it takes time for leases to roll over.

But there’s some very good news on this chart. Although rent is still less affordable than it was in the 90s and 00s, it’s more affordable than it was in the late 2010s. In fact, rent appears to be on a downward trend relative to income — the Apartment List data is basically telling the right story.

So why has rent come down? Maybe because we just built more apartments than we've built since the 1980s:

And in fact, when we look at the cities where rents have fallen the most in recent years, it’s the cities where we built the most new apartments.

There might be other reasons too, but I think this looks like a win for good old YIMBY supply expansion. Keep building more apartments!!

4. AI isn’t taking college jobs (but it is taking artist jobs)

Today in the eternally ongoing saga of “Is AI taking our jobs?”, we have several interesting items. First, we have wage data from Indeed, showing that workers in AI-exposed jobs have seen their wages increase much faster than workers in less-exposed jobs:

Source: Indeed via Daily Chartbook

This is pretty simple to understand. AI “exposure” means a job contains tasks that AI could do. This basically just means “a job where you might use AI”. And since AI is the big thing booming in our economy right now, this means that more “AI-exposed” jobs are seeing lots of demand, which drives up wages.

Our second item is a new paper from Fairlie and Wu, finding that AI hasn’t raised unemployment among recent college grads:

Using CPS microdata, we provide the first estimates of the effects of AI on the unemployment of recent college graduates in June, July and August 2026…[W]e find that unemployment rates did not spike in summer 2026 relative to summer months in previous years and did not rise in a significant way relative to older college graduates or young workers without a college degree. We also provide the first analysis of an expanded definition of unemployment that includes those who report “wanting a job” which adds nearly two percentage points to the unemployment rate of recent college graduates but we find no evidence of a statistically significant increase in summer 2026 even after adding these “sidelined unemployed.”

And here’s a chart:

So that’s all good news. Now for the bad news: I think I’ve finally found a category of jobs that is getting displaced by AI. Translator and trucker and radiologist jobs have all held up in the age of AI, but digital media jobs are getting absolutely clobbered (even as live performing art jobs have held up fine):

This isn’t necessarily cause for panic — every new wave of technology has reduced the demand for certain occupations. But digital arts jobs are a dream for lots of people — a way to indulge your creative side while also getting paid. If AI is closing off that particular combination of gainful employment and personal fulfillment for millions of people in advanced countries, that’s very sad — even if humans aren’t replaced wholesale.

5. Mass deportation isn’t helping native-born Americans find jobs

Donald Trump came into office with two basic policies — tariffs and mass deportations. The deportations were supposed to support the U.S. job market, freeing up jobs for the native-born, and raising their wages by reducing competition. Some of us always knew this was very unlikely to work, since immigrants are a source of labor demand in addition to being a source of labor supply. But the Trump administration never listens to folks like me, especially when immigration is involved.

So anyway, are the mass deportations working as Trump had hoped? Mike Konczal has a post in which he presents convincing evidence that no, they are not:

Mike Konczal
Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native-Born Workers?
In response to my recent post on women gaining 101% of net payroll jobs under the Trump administration, commentators argued that this was largely about immigration, about native-born male workers taking jobs formerly held by deported immigrants and showing up as no net-new jobs. This turned out to be a total fabrication, it never happened, it’s fiction …
Read more

Native-born unemployment is higher now than in Biden’s last year:

Source: Mike Konczal

And prime-age employment rates are lower:

Source: Mike Konczal

If anything, Konczal shows, native-born workers are doing worse in the places with more deportations:

Source: Mike Konczal

Anyway, Konczal has many more charts, and they all point in the same direction: Mass deportations have not helped native-born workers.

Of course, the real purpose of mass deportations wasn’t actually to help native-born workers — in fact, it wasn’t economic at all. But it’s still gratifying to see that basic economics was right and the Trump administration was overselling the benefits of immigration restriction.

6. Chinese investment stalls out

A week ago I wrote that China’s new economic model — basically, paying any and every company to manufacture more and more of the same products — was already hitting a wall. I pointed out that investment is now falling, even in the manufacturing sector:

Source: Bloomberg

I also noticed this recent chart showing rapidly decelerating loan growth in China:

4.9% is around China’s total GDP growth rate.1 So this means that China’s economy is no longer being flooded with bank loans.

I’m going to write a post about this soon, but in a very real sense, bank loans are manufacturing. When you see a Chinese factory full of robot arms and fabulous machine tools, those were all financed with bank loans. If China’s banking system is no longer lending, that’s going to mean an investment slowdown. And unless AI picks up the slack with a very significant productivity boom, that means China’s growth will slow more.

A lot of people think of China’s banking system as an arm of the central government, but that’s not really true. While the central government does exert a lot of control over the banks, that control isn’t complete. And banks are very much in “balance sheet repair” mode right now, despite the government’s admonitions to hurl loans at manufacturing companies. ChinaTalk had an interesting interview with Rhodium Group’s Logan Wright, in which Wright argues that China’s financial system is fundamentally broken:

ChinaTalk
Logan Wright on Broken China
Is the Chinese economy well and truly broken? Will China be stuck in low growth for a decade or more? And what would that mean for the industries we cover on ChinaTalk, for China’s military power, and for policymakers around the world…
Read more

Wright says:

[I]t’s still underappreciated how central the financial system was to China’s growth over the past two decades, and how much the financial system’s problems now constrain that growth. Those are the parts that are broken…[I]f growth depends so much on the financial system, and the financial system now constrains growth, then a lot of China’s external messaging — that they’re economically successful and time is on their side — is simply wrong. It will become more obvious that it’s wrong.

The interview is very long and interesting, and I recommend reading it all the way through. But the basic argument is that although China’s state control of the banks allows them to avoid a financial crisis, it won’t allow them to avoid it for free — the price will be slow growth, zombie companies, and general economic sclerosis, a bit similar to what happened to Japan in the 1990s. I’ve been resisting that comparison for a long time, but it’s looking more and more apt.

7. Why I’m not as worried about AI cyber risk

I’m probably a lot more worried about AI bioterror risk than most people. But this isn’t just because I fear AI’s power in general. In fact, I’m pretty much not worried at all about cyber risk from AI — or maybe only very minimally worried.

Obviously, if AI-enabled hackers were able to cause massive blackouts during winter, or crash a bunch of cars, or zero out Americans’ bank accounts, that would cause a lot of chaos and destruction. But my instinct is that in the long run, the battle of hackers versus defenders ends up favoring the defense. The reason is that it’s probably possible to make any piece of software impregnable — if you just go over your code and very carefully remove all vulnerabilities, there’s just no way for a hacker to get in.

That means that as AI gets more powerful at reading, evaluating, and rewriting code, at some point the defense just wins. How long that takes, or how much money it takes, is another question, which is why I do think AI-driven cyberattacks are an issue — especially as AI-written code proliferates like wild, and AI capabilities temporarily overwhelm the security of human-written legacy code.

But it’s notable that although there have definitely been some AI hacking incidents — most famously the Hugging Face attack — there has been no major disaster or spectacular “9/11 of cyber” type attack yet. And the people at the labs seem pretty confident that the defense can eventually prevail:

This is why although cybersecurity makes an OK demonstration of increasing AI capabilities, and a good excuse to warn people about AI risk, it’s ultimately a lot less scary than, say, bioterror risk. Biology is different than code — the attack surface is far larger and far more poorly understood, and the consequences of a successful major attack are more dire.


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1

Probably still a little higher, because the official growth rate is overstated.

Governments want to hold America’s shares more than its debts

When countries switch towards riskier assets, the global economy feels the consequences

Research on grasping bureaucrats startles Singapore

It is more revealing about its academic culture than its civil service

Financial astrology is a serious business in India

That is bad news for investors’ returns

As US relations fray, Canada gets serious about its own launch industry

A year or two ago, a few Canadian launch companies were trying to develop small rockets, but if we're being frank, the industry was not particularly notable. Sure, something interesting might eventually happen, but no one outside of a few Canadian space geeks was paying much attention.

But then the Trump Administration started threatening and instituting tariffs. There was talk of making Canada the 51st state. And pretty much every Canadian I know began telling me how enraged they were at their neighbors to the south. It's hard to blame them.

This has led the Canadian government to reassess all manner of areas where it had previously been happy to rely largely on the US government and American companies for goods and services. This included sovereign access to space. So this spring, the government announced the first awards to three companies—NordSpace, Reaction Dynamics, and Canada Rocket Company—to support work on rockets with "light lift" capability.

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SpaceX describes surgical intervention before launch of latest crew mission

A four-person crew rocketed into orbit Thursday from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, heading for a six-month expedition on the International Space Station.

Riding a Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft, the four crew members departed from Space Launch Complex-40 at Cape Canaveral at 11:10 am EDT (15:10 UTC) Thursday. Nine minutes later, they were in orbit to begin closing in on the space station for docking Thursday evening.

The launch was delayed from mid-September to replace a balky valve in the Dragon spacecraft's propulsion system, a task that involved cutting into a propellant line inside the ship to swap out a faulty component.

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NASA squeezed Treasury, vibe coded, and broke the mold in bid to save Swift

An attempt to save NASA's $500 million Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory from dropping out of orbit fell short, but the behind-the-scenes machinations required just to make a rescue possible deserve recognition, government and commercial space officials said in a recounting of the mission.

The rescue mission was developed by Katalyst Space Technologies, working under a $30 million contract awarded by NASA last September. NASA gave Katalyst nine months to build and launch a satellite to capture Swift flying some 200 miles above the Earth and boost it into a higher orbit.

Katalyst's rescue spacecraft, known as Link, successfully launched July 3 and completed some of its initial checkouts before a malfunction caused it to spin out of control a few weeks later. NASA announced in August that Link would not be able to reach Swift as intended, and the rescue mission was aborted.

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Stop Trying to Make Rahm Emanuel Happen

Rahm Emanuel in his natural environment

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To a certain kind of political reporter, Rahm Emanuel is a compelling figure, a politician of deep wisdom and experience, just the kind of person who ought to be given serious consideration as a candidate for president. And if the voters themselves aren’t all that interested? Well that can change, with a sufficient volume of lengthy profiles and interviews.

And so a campaign has begun to make Rahm happen, engineered by the man himself but with the active assistance of a good portion of the elite news media. The good news is that Rahm is not going to happen, because he represents everything that Democratic voters are eager to reject at this moment.

Rahm is everywhere, whether you asked for him or not

Here’s Rahm being interviewed by CNBC. Here’s Rahm being interviewed by Fox News. Here’s Rahm being interviewed by CBS News. Here’s Rahm being interviewed by Politico. Here’s a big profile of Rahm in the New York Times, which says “he has emerged as a behind-the-scenes force in his party’s push to flip the House this fall.” And going back a few months, here’s Politico saying “His pugilism and his critique of the party’s leftward lurch will create a gauntlet his would-be rivals will have to navigate.” Everyone will have to deal with Rahm, so powerful a presence is he!

Readers under 30 or so might not have a deep familiarity with Emanuel, so the short version is this: He’s had a long list of jobs (campaign operative, fundraiser, White House staffer, congressman, White House chief of staff, mayor of Chicago, Wall Street rainmaker, ambassador to Japan), in which he earned a reputation as, to put it plainly, an asshole. Reporters profiling him will describe incidents of him shouting and swearing at people, or mention that sometimes he has been referred to as “Rahmbo,” but what it comes down to is that he’s an asshole.

That isn’t necessarily disqualifying, even if it should be; lots of politicians are abusive to people around them, as are bosses in a million workplaces. But unlike some of them, Emanuel isn’t a silver-tongued charmer whose charisma will hypnotize voters on the campaign trail.

What is disqualifying, however, is that Rahm’s inclinations run toward caution and centrism, and that is the opposite of what Democratic voters want at this moment. It’s not just about ideology, it’s about a style of politics those voters are absolutely fed up with, one driven by the belief that the way to succeed is to constantly look over your right shoulder, not do anything that might make Republicans too angry, and not just spend your time chasing independent voters but do so by trimming back your ambitions until they’re a shapeless lump of timidity and compromise.

To me, the emblematic Rahm Emanuel moment came in early 2010, when Democrats were struggling to pass the Affordable Care Act. For a brief time they had a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the Senate (though some of those were very conservative Democrats), and as they approached the finish line, needing only to get the two chambers to agree on a single bill, Ted Kennedy died and a Republican, Scott Brown, won a surprise victory to replace him. At that point, Emanuel counseled retreat: throw the big bill in the trash, then try to pass a bill to expand coverage for low-income kids, something far less ambitious but likelier to get bipartisan support. In addition to misreading what Republicans would accept (absolutely nothing, then as now) it amounted to abject surrender. As Molly Ball reported in Time magazine, Nancy Pelosi wasn’t having it:

Pelosi told the White House to rein in Emanuel and get him to stop pestering her members about his “eensy weensy bill.” At a meeting in the Oval Office, Pelosi confronted the subject directly. “Mr. President, I know there are some on your staff who want to take the namby-pamby approach,” she said. “That’s unacceptable.” Obama took her side. They were going to go for it.

She was right, and the ACA passed. If Emanuel had had his way, it wouldn’t have happened.

The problem is not that he believes in nothing, it’s what he does believe in

One might look at where Emanuel is now and say he’s changed, at least a little. In July he went to Israel and gave a speech excoriating Benjamin Netanyahu, and now says the Israeli government should no longer get support from the U.S. taxpayer (though he says they should be free to buy American weapons with their own money if they want, just like other countries). He’s still advocating small-bore policy changes, but ones that are updated for the present moment, like a ban on lawmakers betting on prediction markets and a mandatory retirement age of 75 across the federal government.

I’m sure there will be more to come, as Emanuel tries to present himself as a man for this moment. But while he may evolve a little bit here or there, he’s still the same guy he always was, and that’s the problem. He’s the avatar of a certain kind of Democratic centrist politics, one that yearns to win the votes of Republicans but views progressives with little but contempt. Like many others, he believes that the way to win votes across the center is to engage in some vigorous hippie-punching (Rahm is eager to talk about how awful the DSA is), then present some ideologically denuded, tiny policy ideas under the guise of “pragmatism.”

If he really believed in those policy ideas, that would be one thing. But it’s never been clear that Rahm believes in much of anything. He wants power, but he has never seemed animated by doing much with power; he has never presented a vision of how he’d like government and society to work that goes much beyond “What we have now, but a little better.”

Back in 2020, Democrats had no greater goal than getting rid of Donald Trump, which is the biggest reason Joe Biden got their nomination; he was widely seen as the safest and most electable choice. But this is a very different moment. Yes, they’re desperate to win, and still will be in 2028. But even more, they’ll be drawn to candidates who can sell them on a vision of something deeper, more fundamental, and more lasting.

That’s not who Rahm is, and to his credit (I guess) he’s not trying to pretend it is. Which is why I’m fairly sure that as the primary process goes on, we’re likely to see him coming in 10th or so in all the polls, even as he gets inordinate attention in the news media.

There have been times when his brand of corporate-approved, right-leaning centrism was attractive to voters; in many ways that what his old boss Bill Clinton offered in 1992. But this is not 1992, and Rahm Emanuel is no Bill Clinton. Fortunately.

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Thursday 1 October 1663

Up and betimes to my office, and then to sit, where Sir G. Carteret, Sir W. Batten, Sir W. Pen, Sir J. Minnes, Mr. Coventry and myself, a fuller board than by the King’s progresse and the late pays and my absence has been a great while.

Sat late, and then home to dinner. After dinner I by water to Deptford about a little business, and so back again, buying a couple of good eeles by the way, and after writing by the post, home to see the painter at work, late, in my wife’s closet, and so to supper and to bed, having been very merry with the painter, late, while he was doing his work.

This day the King and Court returned from their progress.

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Falcon Heavy flies its first mission for U.S. spy satellite agency

SpaceX launches the NROL-97 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office on Oct. 1, 2026. This was the first NRO payload to fly onboard a Falcon Heavy rocket. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Update Oct. 1, 12:21 a.m. EDT (0421 UTC): SpaceX landed its two side boosters.

A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket launched from Florida Thursday night on a classified mission for the National Reconnaissance Office, America’s spy satellite agency.

Codenamed NROL-97, the mission blasted off from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at 11:54 p.m. EDT (0354 UTC). It took a north-easterly trajectory on departure from Florida’s Space Coast.

The NRO has previously flown payloads on 22 Falcon 9 rockets but this is the first time it has used the heavy-lift Falcon Heavy, which consists of three Falcon 9 boosters and an upper stage, topped by a payload fairing.

The powerful rocket, which lifts off under the power of 27 Merlin 1D engines, was introduced to great fanfare in 2018 and made its 14th flight Thursday night.

Like most NRO missions, little is publicly known about the nature the flight. It was the first NRO mission to fly after being procured in 2025 through the competitive National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 2 contract.

The Falcon Heavy core stage, serial number B1106, was brand new and was expended on this mission. The rocket’s side boosters both flew just a month ago to launch NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. B1104 made its second flight and B1072 was on its fourth mission.

The side boosters returned to Landing Zones 1 and 2 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station with thunderous sonic booms. SpaceX returned LZ-1 to service for this mission after it was replaced by LZ-40 at Space Launch Complex 40. However, that landing pad was used earlier in the day on Thursday by the booster returning from launching the Crew 13 mission, B1101.

The NRO said the payload fairing was previously used on the NROL-95 mission in July.

NROL-97 was SpaceX’s third Falcon launch of the day. In addition to the Crew 13 mission, the company launched 130 payloads on the Transporter 13 rideshare mission from its West Coast pad at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. It was the first time the company has landed four boosters in a single day.

Links 10/1/26

Links for you. Science:

Covid-19 wastewater levels ain’t what they used to be. What does that mean?
A Kelvin Wave Is Heading Toward the California Coast, Bringing Trouble
BASE Search Index (a good way to get access to scientific papers)
AI Presents Science with a ‘Ship of Theseus’ Problem
Florida counties declare emergency over ‘wildly unusual’ dengue outbreak. Mosquito-borne disease has infected hundreds statewide and killed one woman in Tampa.
‘Zombified’ C.D.C., Hobbled by Cuts, Struggles to Fulfill Scientific Mission. The agency has lost its independence and nearly a third of its staff, as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and associates have tightened control.
Pennsylvania reports 5th measles-related death in the state

Other:

Why has abortion faded from America’s national conversation?
Democrats Are About To Learn The Wrong Lesson From Trump’s Failure. He was done in by malice, incompetence, corruption, and pathological vanity, not by his willingness to act before he could be stopped.
The Student Journalists Who Never Let the Cornell Assault Case Go
One More Reason Americans Hate AI: It Does Nothing for Them
What It Feels Like at Cornell Right Now
Rahm Emanuel’s Losing Record
The Nexus Project Appreciates NYC’s First-Ever Municipal Strategy to Combat Antisemitism, Encourages Its Implementation
How Meta Uses A.I. Data Centers to Avoid Billions in Federal Taxes
Copilot stabs captain on flight to Israel before passengers storm cockpit and stabilize jetliner
Eric Schmitt’s Very Bad Day at Work
Mayor and Nas sit down to discuss the past, present and future of hip hop in NYC
A College Rape Case Has Ignited the Country. Let’s Talk About What We’re Actually Talking About Here.
Someone ‘Torturing’ LLMs in a Robot Prison Has Triggered the Dumbest Debate in AI Yet
The Facebook Fake-out
Trump’s child-care plan could punish single parents
MAGA influencers slam GOP governor for not being racist enough
D.C. region rents would be higher today without pandemic, data shows
The Internet Has a Basement, And Nobody’s Given You The Key.
Only People Who Have Never Had A Real Job
OpenAI Ignored Employees Who Warned It Wasn’t Doing Enough About Security
A month out, Iowa poised for a political turn
Trump’s ‘Greater North America’ Is Fascist Geopolitics
Right-Wing Groups Are Making Money Off John Fetterman. After losing his Democratic fundraisers, the Pennsylvania senator found a new firm with MAGA-world ties.
RFK Jr. thinks AI will free us from the “tyranny” of medical facts, expertise. AI is far from a perfect resource. But it seems to hallucinate less than Kennedy.
Ken Paxton’s office struck plea deals in three other sex abuse cases beyond one facing scrutiny
Kennedy Center ‘in free fall’ as Trump allies max out credit cards and opera funds
E-bikes are giving teenagers something we thought they’d lost
How Cities Are Forced to Funnel License Plate Data to a Massive Federal Surveillance Program
Trump’s White House Agrees His ‘Midterm Ads’ Are Illegal. They’re Doing It Anyway
USPS To Put Cameras in Trucks That Scan Roads for ‘Community Safety’

Regardless of What You Think About Hasan Piker, He’s a Nothingburger of a Political Issue

At least Republicans think so (boldface mine):

Yes, that Hasan Piker, the hard-left Twitch streamer who has infuriated Democratic elites with his efforts to push the party leftward and to a more pro-Palestinian position. The anti-Piker strategy may have started with Dems and their think tanks but boy, did it end up being a uniquely hysterical and sometimes horny obsession in Republican circles and right-wing media.…

The Trump White House, including leading policy architect Stephen Miller, rants and raves about Piker, dubbing him “the new consultant and strategist for the Democrat[ic] Party,” in what Trump officials have told me is a deliberate attempt to tie Dem candidates to Piker’s “extremism,” in the hope it will drag down liberal candidates during the midterms…

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has plowed considerable resources and money into trying to turn Piker into the face of the Democratic opposition, smugly declaring in a joke letter to the Federal Election Commission that Piker’s “direct campaign activities” are “in-kind contributions to the Republican Party.” And the Trump-backed Mike Rogers – who is running against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan in one of the most pivotal Senate races in an absurdly high-stakes election cycle – has made Piker’s connection to El-Sayed a major part of his campaign; there’s a recent, Rogers-approved TV ad that almost makes it seem like Rogers thinks he’s running against Piker…

“It was such a retarded thing to do,” one longtime Trump adviser told me recently. I quibble with a) the past-tense framing because the party is still doing it, and b) the use of the slur. Having said that, I’m printing it because not only is it the Trump administration’s favorite word, apparently, but because not one but two (or three? I’m honestly losing count) Trump advisers or GOP operatives very close to the White House independently used the R-word to describe the party-wide decision to invest resources in elevating Piker…

“No one knows who this asshole is,” one Republican operative close to Trump says, adding: “We aren’t breaking through to voters with this guy, unless you count people who are voting Republican anyways.”

…McLaughlin also sent me a link to one of his most recent polls that shows the “battle for Congress remains close, but our latest national survey contains a clear warning for Republicans: Democrats continue to lead on the generic congressional ballot, while the Republican advantage on the capitalism-versus-socialism question has narrowed sharply.”

As a matter of psychology, I’m managing my expectations for the 2026 elections downward, but the analytical part of my brain keeps telling me there’s new evidence every day that the midterms are going to be really bad for Republicans.

Also, now can we stop talking about Piker?

Fresh crew takes off for six-month stay aboard space station

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to begin NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 on Oct. 1, 2026. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket took off on a flight to the International Space Station Thursday carrying two NASA astronauts, a cosmonaut and a Canadian whose wife plans a launch of her own later this year, giving birth to the couple’s third child while her husband is away in space.

Strapped into a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, Crew 13 commander Jessica Watkins, pilot Luke Delaney, Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov and Canadian astronaut Joshua Kutryk blasted off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 11:10 a.m. EDT.

The launch originally was planned for mid September, but the flight was delayed to replace a leaking valve in the Crew Dragon’s propulsion system.

Watkins, who holds a Ph.D. in geology, flew to space aboard a Crew Dragon in 2022. Her crewmates are space rookies, the 296th, 297th and 298th astronauts to fly aboard the ISS. Delaney and Kutryk are both former military test pilots while Teteryatnikov served in the Russian submarine force before becoming a cosmonaut.

The four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission exit the Neil A. Armstrong Operations and Checkouts Building the Kennedy Space Center to bid farewell to their friends and families. Left to right: Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Joshua Kutryk, NASA astronaut Luke Delaney, NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Kutryk and his wife Heather have two children, ages 5 and 7. They’re expecting their third child around Thanksgiving, about two months into the Crew 13 mission. In so doing, they will become the fourth couple in space history to have a child born while one parent was off the planet.

“Leaving these three (plus one on the way) is the hardest thing I’ve ever done,” Kutryk wrote in a post on the social media platform X. “But that has always been the nature of exploration.” He then quoted Norwegian arctic explorer Fridtjof Nansen, describing his thoughts upon setting off for the North Pole.

“‘Behind me lay all I held dear in life. And what lay before me? Happy child, little do you know what life is — how strangely mingled and how full of change… and now, a farewell to home. It was the darkest hour of the whole journey.'”

Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Joshua Kutryk (in vehicle) is photographed by another CSA astronaut alongside his wife, Heather, and their two children. The couple are expecting their third child to be born while Kutryk is on orbit. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Despite President Trump’s recent animosity toward Canada, the Canadian Space Agency continues to play a major role in the U.S. space program. Along with supplying the robot arms that helped build the space station, CSA astronaut Jeremy Hansen flew around the moon on NASA’s Artemis II mission. Kutryk is the 17th Canadian to fly in space.

“When I think about the space station, I hope the legacy is that people see this beacon in the sky going around Earth, one of the most complex things humans have ever, ever created, and they see it for all of its technical marvel and all the science and discoveries we’re making there,” he said.

“But (I hope) they also see it as sort of this beacon for what we can do when we make good decisions, when we work together and we collaborate and we prioritize things. It’s testament to what we’ve done, what we can do, and really to what we hope the generations that follow can do.”

After boosting the Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon capsule out of the dense lower atmosphere, the Falcon 9’s first stage flew itself back to a pinpoint landing at the Space Force station while the rocket’s upper stage continued the climb to space. Minutes later, the second stage engine shut down and the crew capsule separated to fly on its own.

“What an epic ride!” Delaney radioed. “What an epic ride it was! Today, we proudly continue the streak of humans living and working in orbit, building on the legacies of yesterday to pave the way for future of space exploration … Deepest appreciation to my family and friends who stood by me throughout this entire endeavor. Thank you. I love you guys. And to the Marines back on Earth, Semper Fi.”

Like all flights to the International Space Station, piloted and unpiloted alike, the Crew 13 launch was timed for the moment Earth’s rotation carried the pad into the plane of the station’s orbit. That’s a requirement for rendezvous missions because no current rockets have the power to overcome their orbital momentum and change their direction of travel when moving at nearly 5 miles per second.

A composite image showing the launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 and the landing burn performed by first stage booster, tail number B1101, shortly before touching down at Landing Zone 40. Image: Michale Cain/Spaceflight Now

While a Falcon 9 cannot change orbital planes, the Crew Dragon capsule can change its altitude as required, flying lower — and faster — to catch up with its quarry and higher to slow down the approach.

In this case, it will take Crew 13 capsule just eight hours — a NASA record — to catch up with the ISS, moving in for an automated docking at the forward port of the station’s Harmony module at 7 p.m.

“I personally am looking forward to returning to the ISS as well as flying on Dragon a second time, and really looking forward to experiencing those experiences through the eyes of my crewmates,” Watkins said.

“We expect a very busy mission with lots of station maintenance, both internal and external, with a few EVAs (spacewalks) on the docket as well as visiting vehicle capture and stowage operations, lots of science … and plenty of outreach.”

Standing by to welcome Watkins and company aboard will be the crew they are replacing: Crew 12 commander Jessica Meir, pilot Jack Hathaway, European Space Agency astronaut Sophie Adenot and cosmonaut Andrey Fedyaev. They’re wrapping up a 235-day mission that began with launch atop a Falcon 9 rocket on Feb. 13.

Also on board: Soyuz MS-29/75S cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov, Anna Kikina and NASA astronaut Anil Menon, launched on a Soyuz 2.1a rocket from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on July 14. They’re in the midst of an eight-month stay, returning to Earth in early April 2027.

After an expedited “crew handover,” during which Meir and her crewmates will show their replacements the ins and outs of station operations, Crew 12 will board their own Crew Dragon capsule and return to Earth. Undocking is planned for Oct. 5 with splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off the southern California coast on Oct. 6.

“I think the thing that I’m looking forward to most is seeing my three-and-a-half-year-old daughter,” said Meir, a two-flight veteran with seven spacewalks to her credit. “I’m so looking forward to seeing nature again, feeling the breeze on my face, the wind rustling through the leaves, experiencing all those things that we don’t have up here.

“But I will very, very much miss being weightless all the time and the incredible views that we have.”

Said Hathaway: “Going home and being able to take a nice long hot shower will be very relaxing and very nice. And, of course, I’m looking forward to seeing my family. But a hot shower is near the top of my list.”

Crew 12’s departure will free up the Harmony module’s space-facing port for the arrival of a SpaceX Cargo Dragon on Oct. 13 that will be loaded with crew supplies, science gear, spare parts and two roll-out solar array panels. The Crew 13 fliers also expect to welcome a Northrop Grumman cargo ship in December, along with two Russian Progress freighters in November and February.

The roll-out solar arrays going up on the next Dragon Cargo ship are the final sets in a major upgrade to the station’s original solar power system that began with initial installations in June 2021. The final two sets will be installed during spacewalks late this month and early November.

But the major goal of the flight, like all NASA missions to the station, is conducting research in the microgravity environment of space. Scores of experiments and technology demonstrations are running at any given moment with fresh studies going up on virtually every flight.

The Crew 13 fliers will face the same challenges.

“During the mission, the crew will help us fight heart disease and Parkinson’s disease by studying human stem cell-derived tissues that will help improve medicine, disease modeling, and pharmaceutical testing,” said Dana Weigel, director of NASA’s low-Earth orbit mission directorate.

“They will also explore crop production that’s important for longer-duration spaceflight missions, and they’ll help us better understand blood flow abnormalities that we see in space, along with testing new diagnostic medical equipment for monitoring crew health. That’s just a couple of the highlights of the research the crew will be doing on board.”

All in all, Hathaway said, the crew is looking forward to an action-packed stay in space.

“For me, between the science, the spacewalks and everything else that the expedition is going to have, it’s looking to be a great time,” Delaney said. “Excited to launch with this crew, join the expedition, and integrate as an extension of NASA and all the ISS team members. So exciting times ahead!”

Understanding the AI That Drives Robots

It’s been over a year since I last looked at the state of humanoid robots, and enthusiasm for the technology shows no sign of waning. Startups NEURA Robotics and Figure AI raised $1.4 billion and $1 billion, respectively, and Apptronik raised $520 million. China’s Unitree went public, raising roughly $900 million, and Agility Robotics plans to go public via SPAC later this year. A few weeks ago China held the second annual World Humanoid Robot Games, showing humanoid robots performing all manner of impressive physical feats.

Figure’s humanoid robot sorting packages, via Wikipedia.

We’ve also seen some impressive-looking robotics demos over the last year, though these must be evaluated with a large grain of salt. Figure showed off its robots sorting packages for hours at a time and autonomously unloading a dishwasher. Physical Intelligence showed off its robot model making coffee and folding boxes in a chocolate factory. Generalist AI showed off its GEN-1.5 model learning new tasks from just a few examples.

Some progress in robots is a function of hardware advances: better actuators, and so on. But the lion’s share of it is due to advances in robot AI, using specially developed AI models to control a robot. As more general AI continues to rapidly advance in capabilities, one obvious question is whether we’re going to see the same sort of acceleration in robotic AI. Right now robotic AI capabilities still seem very limited, but given how fast more general AI improved, I can imagine this changing very quickly. Because of this, it’s worth understanding how the AI models being developed to control robots work.

There are a few different sorts of robotic AIs, which are sometimes referred to as “policies” (where a “policy” is something that maps a particular set of inputs — robot state, sensor data, instructions it’s been given — to a set of robot actions). For this essay, we’ll look at one commonly used architecture, employed by companies such as Figure, Unitree, Physical Intelligence, and Nvidia: the vision-language-action model (VLA). More specifically, we’ll look at one popular VLA, Physical Intelligence’s open-weight π0.5 VLA, which was released in 2025 and has become widely used (though it’s not Physical Intelligence’s most advanced model).

While a large language model takes text as an input and gives text as an output, a VLA takes text, images, and robot information as an input and gives a series of robot actions as an output. It does this using many of the same components that made LLMs so successful, specifically attention and the transformer architecture. It’s not amazingly obvious if VLA’s will remain the primary robotic AI paradigm, but as of now they’re a very common method for controlling robots.

Linear algebra basics

To learn how AI works (be it a VLA or anything else), it’s useful to know a very small amount of linear algebra. Specifically, we want to understand a few different operations for manipulating arrays of numbers, since this is most of what AI models do.

For instance, say we have the following two-dimensional arrays (or matrices) of numbers:

One thing we can do to these arrays is add them together. This works exactly like how you’d expect: each number in one array is added to the corresponding number in the other array, giving you a new array with all the resulting additions.

Another thing we can do is multiply or divide an array by a single value. This also works more or less like you’d expect: each value in the array gets multiplied or divided by the respective value.

But what if we want to multiply two matrices together? To do this, we need an operation called the dot product. The dot product takes two one-dimensional arrays of numbers (also known as vectors), multiplies each value in one vector by the corresponding value in the other vector, then sums the result.

You can think of the dot product as measuring two things: how large two vectors are, and how similar they are to each other. (If you normalize the vectors, scaling the values so everything is between 0 and 1, then the dot product is entirely a measure of how similar two vectors are to each other.)

When we multiply two matrices together, we’re simply doing a bunch of dot products: each value in the resulting matrix is the dot product of the row of one array and the column of another. Because the dot product requires two lists of equal length, multiplication of matrices must be done in a certain way: the number of columns of one matrix must be equal to the number of rows of the other matrix. And the size of the output matrix will be a function of the sizes of the input matrices.

I find it easiest to understand matrix multiplication by putting one matrix on the left and the other matrix on the upper right. The output matrix fits in the space between them, each value the dot product of the first matrix’s rows and the second’s columns:

Neural network basics

Most modern AI models, as we know, are built using neural networks. The classic image of a neural network is something like this:

You have some series of input neurons that represent your input data, which are connected to various intermediate layers of neurons, which then get connected to output neurons. Depending on what data is fed into them and how the connections between different neurons have been set, neurons will “activate” to various degrees, taking some input from the neurons in the previous layer and sending some output along to the neurons in the next layer. This structure is sometimes called a “multilayer perceptron,” or MLP.

However, I think it’s much easier to understand neural networks by looking at how they’re actually implemented, which is done by multiplying arrays of numbers (in machine learning, these arrays are sometimes called “tensors,” where a tensor is just an array of numbers that can be any dimension. Google, for instance, has a machine-learning library called “TensorFlow”). The neural network above, for instance, would actually be implemented via something like this:

The three input neurons become a one-dimensional array, or vector, with three numbers in it, which is our input data. This vector then gets passed to the hidden layer, where it goes through several steps. First, it gets multiplied by a two-dimensional matrix (W1 in the figure). This matrix has four rows (corresponding to the four neurons in the original diagram) and three columns (one for each value in the input vector): it takes a vector three numbers long (or 3-vector) as an input and spits out one four numbers long as an output. The resulting vector of four numbers is then added to another 4-vector (b1 in the figure), the values of which are known as “biases.” The weights and biases of the various layers are known as the “parameters” of the network and are what get modified when the neural network is being trained.

Once the biases have been added, the resulting vector (known as a “pre-activation,” z in the figure) then goes through what’s called a nonlinearity, which is just a function that does different transformations to an input depending on what that input is. A common nonlinearity, which the example above uses, is “ReLU,” for rectified linear unit. All ReLU does is replace any negative numbers in the vector it’s given with zeroes. Other nonlinearities are the sigmoid (an S-shaped function that squeezes values to be between 0 and 1) and GELU (a somewhat ReLU-like function that’s smooth instead of sharply kinked).

In a basic MLP like this one, each hidden layer in a neural network will consist of this matrix multiplication, then bias, then nonlinearity. The network above has just one hidden layer, so after the nonlinearity the resulting vector is then passed to the output neurons. These transform the data again using another matrix multiplication (W2) and bias addition (b2), yielding a vector of two numbers as the output (y).

This structure is simple but powerful. To see why, imagine a neural network that takes a single value as an input and gives a single value as an output but has many neurons in its hidden layer (the number of neurons is known as the “width” of the layer). Before the nonlinearity, each individual neuron calculates wx + b, which is the formula for a straight line; the weights determine the slope of the line, while the biases determine its vertical location. The nonlinearity, in turn, lets the layer draw different line segments, with different slopes and intercepts, at different points on the graph. Together, this allows a sufficiently wide neural network to, in principle, approximate any continuous function by drawing a large number of different line segments1: the more hidden-layer neurons we add, the more line segments we can draw, and the closer we can approximate the function. In higher dimensions — larger numbers of inputs and outputs — the geometry gets more complicated, but the basic idea remains the same.

Training a neural network

Other than their ability to approximate very complex functions, the other key property of neural networks is that they can be trained, by comparing the actual output of a network to the output you’d like it to have, and nudging the weights and biases in response to make the output more accurate.

Training a network starts with a forward pass, giving it an example input and then calculating an output. This calculated output is then compared to the actual, correct output using some loss function, which measures the difference between the two. For a simple case where the output is a single number, the loss function might be mean squared error, which you can calculate by squaring the difference between the actual output and the expected output: the bigger the difference, the larger the loss. If you’re trying to predict the next symbol of a sequence, however, a common loss function is cross entropy, which is based on how likely the model thought the actual next symbol was; the less likely the model thought the correct symbol was, the higher the cross entropy. As a model gets trained and does a better and better job at approximating the correct output, the loss will (hopefully) trend downward, and reports on AI training runs will often show training loss curves.

Once the loss has been determined, the next step is to go back through the network, layer by layer, and, using the chain rule, calculate how much the loss would change if you made small adjustments to each weight and bias. This is known as backpropagation and produces a long list of numbers, each number telling you how much the loss would change when you adjust the value of one parameter in the model. This list, called the gradient, can be thought of as the direction you’d need to “step” in a high-dimensional space to maximally increase the loss for the current values of the model’s parameters.

The gradient in hand, the next step is to take a small step in the opposite direction (since we want to decrease the loss, not increase it). This is done by multiplying each value in the gradient by a small positive number (known as the learning rate), and then subtracting the resulting number from each parameter. With the parameters changed, you can then run another input through the model, calculate the new loss, and modify the parameters again. This process of repeatedly calculating the gradient, then using it to modify the parameters of the model to (hopefully) reduce the loss is known as gradient descent.

In practice, most models are trained using modified, more complex versions of gradient descent that do things like use the average of recent gradients to update the parameters and use different learning rates at different points in the training process. It’s also uncommon in practice to update the model after every individual training example. Models are instead trained in batches (sometimes called “minibatches”): dozens, hundreds, or even more training examples are run through the model, their losses are averaged, and the gradient is calculated based on the average loss. Settings that determine how a model is trained, such as learning rate or batch size, are known as “hyperparameters,” and figuring out the best hyperparameters to train a model with is an important area of machine learning.

Inputs to a neural network

For an AI to do useful work, we’d like to be able to feed it things like images and text data. How do we convert images, text, and other data into a form that a model can understand and operate on?

For text, there are two main steps. First, a string of text is broken up into chunks, or “tokens.” Then, each token is converted into a long vector of numbers, called an “embedding,” which can then be processed by the network. Let’s take each step in turn.

Tokenizing is a way to break a string of text into a series of chunks, which is useful because it allows the model to learn something about the meaning of individual chunks of text. One option would be to break apart text using a predefined list of words, but a fixed list of whole words would prevent us from processing words or character combinations that haven’t been seen before. So instead it’s more common to use token libraries, which contain both individual characters and clusters of characters (including whole words as well as portions of words) that have been found to occur frequently in actual bodies of text. The token vocabulary for GPT-3, for instance, has around 50,000 items in it. You can browse the GPT token vocabulary here and see that it contains individual characters, chunks of words, and entire words (often with punctuation or spaces included).

Once a text is broken up into individual tokens, each token then gets converted into an embedding, a long vector of numbers. The embedding vector for GPT-3, for instance, is 12,288 numbers long. You can think of this embedding vector as representing coordinates in some very high-dimensional space. The conversion is done using an embedding matrix, which is effectively a huge matrix where each row is the embedding for one particular token. The image below shows an example of converting the string “the cat sat on the mat” to a series of embedding vectors using a (highly simplified) token vocabulary and embedding table.

One key fact about the embedding matrix is that the values in it — the numbers in each embedding vector — are model parameters that are learned, just like the weights and biases in a multilayer perceptron. As a model is trained, the embedding vectors will get updated via whatever flavor of gradient descent is being used, and tokens that the model learns are similar or even substitutable might end up closer to each other in “embedding space.”

With images, we can use a similar process, but it must be modified somewhat. In something like a vision transformer (an AI model used for things like image classification), an image is first broken into a series of smaller chunks (say, a square of 16 × 16 pixels) called patches, the image equivalents of tokens. However, unlike with tokens, it’s not feasible to have a unique embedding vector for every possible image patch, because the number of possible patches is too large. Even if an image was limited to just black and white pixels, the number of unique 16 × 16 patches is 2^256, which is not all that much less than the estimated number of atoms in the universe. This is far too many items to list in a table.

Instead, patches are converted to embedding vectors using a learned embedding function. A patch is first converted to a very long vector containing the numerical color values of each pixel. This vector is then converted to an embedding vector using some learned embedding function (such as multiplying by a learned matrix), the parameters of which are updated via training.

For both text and images, this process produces a matrix, where each row is an embedding vector for one particular token or patch. Because the embedding vector on its own doesn’t give any information on where a token occurs in a particular bit of text, the list of embedding vectors is often modified by adding a position-encoding vector to each embedding vector.

Attention and the transformer

Sticking with text for a moment, we have our tokenizer and embedding matrix, which convert words into long vectors of numbers. We add position information to those vectors, and then feed them into a neural network, modifying them in various ways and eventually producing some output.

One weakness of this arrangement is that while the network can learn about the general similarities of various chunks of text by way of the embedding table, embedding vectors don’t include any information about what a token means in a particular string of text. The vectors for the tokens “red” and “crimson” will reflect what the model has learned about how these are used generally, and since they describe similar colors they might end up with similar embedding vectors near each other in embedding space. But this won’t give any information about what they mean in a sentence like “the harvard crimson staff were seeing red on sunday when the president shut down their office.” If we want to accurately predict the next token in a sequence of them, it would be useful if we could modify the embedding vectors to include information about the surrounding context.

One way of doing this that has proved to be very successful is called “attention.” Attention is basically a way to modify an embedding vector with information about its surrounding context. This is done by turning the embedding vector for a token into three other vectors: a query vector, a key vector, and a value vector. Each one is created by multiplying the embedding vector by some matrix. As with the embedding table, these matrices are learned: the values in them will be modified via the training process. In GPT-3, the query, key, and value vectors are each 128 numbers long.

The query vector can be thought of as representing something like “what other tokens are important for interpreting me?” The key vector can be thought of as representing something like “what sort of thing am I useful for?” And the value vector can be thought of as representing “what sort of information will I provide?” The resulting vectors are combined together in a query matrix Q, a key matrix K, and a value matrix V, each row the vector for some particular token.

To calculate attention, the query matrix Q is multiplied by the transposed key matrix K (where “transposed” means “rows turned into columns and vice versa”). This gives a new matrix, QKᵀ, whose values indicate how important each token is for understanding every other token. There are then a few mechanical steps done to this matrix. First, we divide each value in the QKᵀ matrix by the square root of the length of the key vector, to prevent the values from getting too large. When predicting the next token in a sequence, we don’t want earlier tokens to be able to “see” later ones. We correct this by what’s called “causal masking” — essentially setting the values for later tokens on earlier ones to negative infinity. We also scale the values in each row so that they’re between 0 and 1 and sum to 1, using a function called “softmax.” (If you had the vector [10 6 4], softmax would convert it to [0.5 0.3 0.2]). You can think of this as creating a matrix that tells us how much information each token should take from other tokens.

The scaled, masked QKᵀ matrix is then multiplied by the value matrix V. The output of this multiplication is a list of embedding vectors, where each vector has been modified to have information about the token’s surrounding context.

In practice, it’s common to run this attention mechanism multiple times simultaneously (this is called “multiple attention heads”). GPT-3, for instance, has 96 attention heads. Each attention head learns different matrices for calculating Q, K, and V, and might learn different things to look for in the surrounding context: you can imagine one attention head “looking” for related nouns, one looking for previous mentions of a word, and so on. (These are just conceptual examples; in practice the things an attention head learns to “attend to” don’t necessarily map cleanly to concepts like this.) The output of each attention head will get stitched together into one matrix, which then gets multiplied by another learned matrix, which mixes the information from different heads together. The resulting matrix can then get processed by the rest of the neural network.

Probably the most common way to use attention is via what’s called the transformer architecture. A GPT-style transformer consists of multiple “transformer blocks,” each one of which contains an attention step followed by a multilayer perceptron. GPT-3, for instance, contains 96 transformer blocks. In the first transformer block, the model is fed the embedding vectors for the tokens, which are then processed by the 96 attention heads, producing an output matrix whose rows are modified and processed embedding vectors. Each row of the matrix then goes through an MLP with a single hidden layer of neurons: while the attention mechanism mixes information between tokens, the MLP processes each embedding vector it receives separately, modifying them further. The output then gets fed into another transformer block, which does the same thing: running the attention mechanism over the output from the previous block (using totally new learned matrices for calculating Q, K, and V), then sending it to an MLP. This is done again and again, through all the transformer blocks, until at the end the vector for the last token is converted into a list of scores, one for each possible token, representing the model’s guess at how likely each token is next in the sequence.

Vision, language, action

A transformer architecture can also be used to process images. The Vision Transformer (ViT) base model described in a 2020 paper by a team from Google uses 12 transformer blocks, each one with 12 attention heads. One difference with the vision transformer is that there’s no causal masking: every token can “see” every other token when processed by the attention mechanism. Another difference is the output: while a GPT-style language transformer takes a string of tokens as an input and predicts the next token as an output, the initial vision transformer takes a string of image “tokens” as an input and produces a classification of the image as an output.

With a transformer capable of processing vision or text, it’s not much of a leap to design one that can process BOTH image and text: say by feeding it an image and a text query (“What is this a picture of?”) and having the model generate an answer. This is known as a vision-language model, or VLM. LLaVA (short for Large Language and Vision Assistant) is one such model. In LLaVA-1.5, an image is fed into a vision transformer, which breaks it into patches, converts those patches into embeddings, and then sends the embeddings through a series of vision transformer blocks, producing a series of vectors (one for each patch). Those vectors then get converted via what’s known as a “projector,” an MLP that changes their size and modifies their representation into something that an LLM expects. These converted vectors then get fed, along with embeddings from the input text tokens, into an LLM, which consists of another series of transformer blocks. Attention in this transformer can look at both the vectors from the image and text, modifying them based on what’s in the image and what’s in the text. The data flows through the transformer blocks, eventually getting spit out as a predicted string of text (“It’s a picture of a dog”). This basic architecture — a vision transformer, a projector that converts its output into LLM-sized vectors, and then an LLM that processes the text and image data — is common, though various models implement it in different ways.

You can similarly use a transformer architecture to drive a robot, by feeding it information on robot state along with images and text, and having it output a series of robot actions. This is called a vision-language-action model, or VLA. The architecture for the π0.5 VLA is shown in the image below:

Image data from the robot’s cameras, text instructions, and data representing the robot’s state are all converted into token embeddings via various encoders. These then get fed into a language backbone, which consists of a series of 18 transformer blocks. (Interestingly, these have multiple attention heads, but ONLY for the query matrix: the key and value matrices are the same for each attention head. This is called “multi-query attention.”)

Running in parallel with this vision-language model is another transformer, the action transformer, which also consists of 18 transformer blocks (the same as the vision-language model). This action transformer gets fed an input of token embeddings representing essentially 50 random actions. These make their way through the transformer, and at each attention step for each action vector the action transformer looks not only at the other action vectors, but at the vectors from the images, text, and robot state at the corresponding block in the vision-language model. It then modifies those action embeddings, moving them away from random actions based on the information that it obtains from the text and image vectors. As the action vectors make their way through the action transformer, they continue to be modified using information from the processed image, text, and state vectors. The output of the action transformer then gets used to correct the input “noise” actions, and the whole process runs again. After 10 iterations, the output of the action transformer is, hopefully, a useful sequence of 50 actions. (The model processes 50 actions at a time because outputting a single action, and then running the entire model again for the next action, would make the robot move very slowly. This is called “action chunking.”) These actions take the form of joint-angle or gripper-position targets, which then get fed into a traditional robot controller that converts them into motor torques to actually move the robot.

This system was assembled from various pre-existing components and then trained together. The transformer that converts image patches into embedding vectors is called SigLIP, a 400-million-parameter model first created in 2023 and trained on pairs of images and text. In 2024, Google combined SigLIP with an existing, 2-billion-parameter LLM called Gemma (which had been trained on 3 trillion tokens of text) to create the PaliGemma VLM, which was then further trained on over a billion training examples. These examples included tasks like captioning images and answering questions about them. To create the π0.5 VLA, Physical Intelligence took PaliGemma, combined it with a system for converting robot actions into tokens (which they call FAST) and a newly created action transformer (a 300-million-parameter model), and then trained the combined system on various robotic manipulation tasks (as well as some additional image description tasks).

Conclusion

Before looking into this I knew, vaguely, that robot AI models were similar to the models used for AI chatbots that I was familiar with. But I was struck by how much overlap between the two is, with VLAs literally using LLMs trained on text as a major building block, and the basic transformer architecture from LLMs being applied to generate robot actions. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see the same sorts of rapid improvements with robot capabilities that we’ve seen with AI more generally, but it does make me think it might be possible.

Robots and the AI that controls them is something that I expect to become increasingly important, and it’s a subject I plan on spending more and more time on, with more and deeper looks at the technology and how it’s progressing.

1

Over a fixed, bounded range of inputs.

Letitia Clark was once Tustin’s mayor. The comeback tour is upon us.

Letitia Clark is my type of local politician.

First, the Democratic candidate for Tustin mayor ranks SWV as her all-time favorite musical act, and nobody (and I mean nobody) has utilized a Michael Jackson jam better than Sisters with Voices.

Second, while so many of our local leaders have rarely left the secure bubble of Orange County, Clark was working New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina—and refused to bolt, even when her family begged her to.

Third, she writes books.

And fourth—she’s just … normal. Not snazzy. Not trying to impress you. None of the glaze of far too many who enter the field. Hell, the other day the (arch-conservative) Orange County Register (wrongly) endorsed incumbent Austin Lumbard … and Letitia texted it to me. Not to bash Lumbard, not to whine and complain. Just because she knew I was writing about her, and she considered the information relevant. That, my friends, is integrity.

So—to hell with the Register, to hell with TLC and to hell with MAGA. The Truth OC is officially endorsing Letitia Clark (who served as Tustin mayor in the early 2020s) to return to her job, not just because her opponent is a bit of an amoeba, but because she has integrity and decency and a whole lot of passion for her hometown.

One can visit her website here, and donate to her run here.

Letitia Clark, no fear, have no fear—the Truth OC Q&A is right here …

JEFF PEARLMAN: Letitia Clark, first of all, thank you for doing this.

LETITIA CLARK: It is my pleasure.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Okay. This is a question, a recurring question I ask people, and you could definitely give me the cliche answer or you can give the raw answer. It’s totally up to you …

LETITIA CLARK: Okay.

JEFF PEARLMAN: But since I started this website, I’ve decided that anyone who runs for local office has some kind of mental imbalance because there’s no glory in it whatsoever. There’s minimal money in it, if any money in it, whatsoever.

LETITIA CLARK: Yes.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You just become a receptacle for everybody’s complaints and anger. And we live in more politically divided times than ever before. You served on the city council, you were mayor. Being sincere, why would any sane human being—and you do seem to be sane—want to do this?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, no, you’re 100% right. And I’ve decided to put people in three categories because sometimes I wonder why people are in it and I have decided it’s three buckets. It’s either one, you’re like a total egomaniac and it’s all about your ego and you need to be somebody or, two, you’re trying to make up for lost time like something happened in high school or something that just like ... that there’s some validation needed or, three, you really have a heart to serve.

And it’s usually those three that I find and they vary in a degree. But yeah, for me really, it all harkens back to how I even got into politics, which was in college. I grew up in Orange County, went to Tustin High School, went to Xavier University of Louisiana in New Orleans. I wanted really badly to go away to school. My parents were really strict growing up and I was really itching to get away.

Well, I applied to a bunch of schools in DC and I thought I was going to go to Howard or Georgetown or something. My parents were like, “You’re not going there. We don’t have any family there.” So I was like, “Well, where can I go?” And they’re like, “Well, we have tons of family in Louisiana, so anywhere in Louisiana.” And so, I settled on Xavier, wound up being a Catholic school, HBCU that had a curfew of 10 o’clock on the weekdays and midnight on the weekend.

So I didn’t transfer over to much freedom there either, but was a pre-law major, thought I wanted to go to law school, started interning for some local campaigns to make extra money from the pre-law club opportunity. And I saw for the first time Black women running for office. I had never seen that growing up. I didn’t even know that was a possibility. Changed my major from pre-law to political science and then got an internship with the City of New Orleans my senior year of college.

And then I started working as a legislative aid for a council member right out of college. That was ‘05. So I’m about six months into my job as a legislative aid and Hurricane Katrina is approaching the city and I was kind of a guppy. I didn’t know much and got donuts and coffee and can take messages. So at the time my boss was saying, “Okay, you’re essential personnel, you have to stay.” And so I was like, “Oh, I’m important.” So I stayed and I saw everything unfold.

I saw the lack of planning, but then I also saw people 1,000% committed to helping the city come back and restore and heal. And I just got the bug and I learned what it meant to be in a position of influence when it mattered. I learned how important it was to be at the table and to be able to put a voice to people in need. And so I just kind of got the bug at 22 and it hasn’t left me. And so that desire to be at the dais and make decisions on behalf of other people.

Knowing that I have lived through times where lives were literally on the line based on the leadership in place. So that’s why I do it. It’s some kind of weird fixation that I’ve had since then.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You’re a kid from California, you’re in New Orleans during Katrina, everyone’s leaving, you’re staying. I’ll throw a big softball at you. What do you remember ... what actually haunts you in your memory all these years later?

LETITIA CLARK: My parents begging me to find a way to come home or just leave and get out. And yeah, I was just so naive that I was like, “This is my shot. It’ll be fine.” There’s never been a devastating hurricane, or at least it’s been over 40 years. Hurricane Betsy was 40 years prior, but it was another issue where the levee had broken. It wasn’t the actual storm. So I just had no idea how bad it could be, but I wind up losing my car. My entire apartment was flooded.

I was in a hotel and sheltered in place with everyone else. But when we did get back to a point where we could get back into the city, well, we had to evacuate the area just for a couple of weeks and then we went back in and the hotels were open for essential personnel and I had to walk to work. I didn’t have a car. I had to go to Goodwill for clothing, accept any donations that were coming in. Yeah, even to this day, I mean it’s over 20 years … I don’t enjoy eating off a plastic cutlery because that’s all we had for so long, because the water still wasn’t clean enough to wash dishes and things like that. And I can still smell some of those scents that existed in the city because of the rotting fridges, rotting bodies. So there’s things like that. There was a documentary that came out last year, 2025. I couldn’t watch it.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Yeah.

LETITIA CLARK: I tried and I was seeing people that I knew and I couldn’t even get through the first episode.

JEFF PEARLMAN: It’s interesting because I’m from New York and I lived through 9/11 and saw one of the planes. Can’t really digest it. And in the aftermath, in the immediate aftermath, Rudy Giuliani was like this hero, right? He’s doing a great job. He’s pointing. And in a way you kind of had the same thing in New Orleans with Ray Nagin, correct?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah. At first it was like, yes, he’s fighting for us. He’s getting mad with the federal administration. We need somebody to be angry like him. And then it kind of just all took a turn and all of the whatever incompetence, whatever corruption existed beneath the surface and we all lived in it. It all started creeping up and becoming illuminated. And then all of a sudden it was, we got to clear the swamp literally and figuratively.

And it was just a place where a lot of folks were just fed up and really felt like this only happened because folks, they weren’t good stewards of public dollars. They diverted federal funds to handle local projects when it should have been invested in reinforcing the levee. There were buses that people could have gotten on. And then thinking about the high poverty level, over 60% poverty level in New Orleans, and then obviously it was a heavily minority city.

So all those things played into the aftermath of why, how did this happen and how were so many people impacted? So yeah, I mean, again, it just stuck ... it was such a transformative time in my life and I didn’t have kids or a husband. Had it been a different situation, I definitely would have left.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Sure.

LETITIA CLARK: Because it would’ve been too much on the line, but it was just me. So it’s like, “Hey, let’s stay.” But it wound up being the best thing to ... everyone has that one thing that you can harken back to what changed the trajectory of your life and that was it.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So here’s a question for you. You’re in your 20s, this happens. I could see a lot of people being like, “Screw government. It just sucks. These people suck. They’re just greedy and callous and they don’t care and they’re ineffective. Why would I waste my time with this?” Yet somehow it seemed to have at least long-term and opposite effect on you. Why would you say that is?

LETITIA CLARK: Because I think I found out how simple it is just to care and do the right thing, that it really was just a difference in knowing that if I just care a little bit and also knowing that if good people who care and want to do the right thing do not step up and fill these seats, people who have their own agenda will, people who don’t care will, people who don’t have a commitment for a long-term stint, they will come in and make short-term decisions selfishly.

And I guess I just kind of saw the result of that. And so I felt like if I had the ability and the wherewithal that I would treat this almost like it was jury duty. It’s just an obligation that if you have the ability to do it, then you should.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So you had a bunch of interesting jobs actually. You worked for the Georgia State Assembly, you worked for the American Red Cross, you worked for the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors. You bounced around quite a bit before coming back to California. What actually brought you back to California?

LETITIA CLARK: Just personal. I was going through a divorce and honestly, when I think back to how I even met my ex, it was definitely kind of trauma bonding through Katrina because when I look back, it’s like, how did I even end up with this person? But we were bonded through the devastation that was going on in New Orleans. And so when all the dust settled, we just were not right for each other. And my twins were five years old at the time. They’re 19 now.

And so, when we were splitting, it was like I had spent enough time in New Orleans. It was 10 years at that point, and I wanted to be closer to family. My parents were still here, and so it was like, let me move back to what’s familiar. And then starting to really understand how great Orange County seemed comparatively. I don’t have to worry about good schools. I don’t have to worry about crime and just a lot of the things that kind of plague a big metropolitan city.

So yeah, that’s what brought me back. And then I was pretty determined not to just have to start from ground zero. So when I moved back, even though I lived with my parents for a year, I was just really ready to get back into it and started volunteering for the Tustin Community Foundation and then, found a job with the American Academy of Pediatrics. I just wanted to be in the mix and connected to community and public service again.

So I started volunteering right away, and then that eventually led to me trying to seek a commission seat in Tustin. And essentially that’s when the narrative that I learned to understand were telling me, “Hey, it’s not your turn and no one like you has ever served in this body. And so we applaud your efforts, but we’ve already got people in place that we would like to see in these seats.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: Was that from within the Democratic Party?

LETITIA CLARK: No, no, no, no. That was at the powers that be on the current Tustin City Council.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Got it.

LETITIA CLARK: Which were Republican men.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You speak longingly of returning to Orange County and the sort of comfort of Orange County. And we moved here 12 years ago, and I’m a Jewish guy from New York, right? And you can’t get a decent slice of pizza worth a damn here, and you can’t get a good bagel, and not that many Jews around here. And it is almost, surprising might be the wrong word. But you’re a Black woman who spent a lot of time in New Orleans who went to Xavier in New Orleans.

LETITIA CLARK: Right, right.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Speaking longingly about almost the bubble of Orange County.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Okay. It’s an interesting sort of phenomenon right there.

LETITIA CLARK: Sure, sure.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So what is it, as a Black woman in Orange County ... and there are not a super, super-duper ton of Black women in Orange County comparatively.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: What is the yin and yang for you of Orange County?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, I mean, I kind of had this really enchanted type of childhood because my dad grew up here and he was very connected and had this affinity for this place because he was born and raised here. So my grandparents came here from Little Rock, Arkansas, and they moved to Laguna Beach. They lived on a segregated street in Laguna Beach on Ocean Avenue.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wow.

LETITIA CLARK: My dad was the first African American baby born at Hoag Hospital when it was Hoag Presbyterian Hospital.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wow.

LETITIA CLARK: Yes. And so my grandfather ran a gas station on Coast Highway, and my dad talks about his childhood of just being a feral kid, just being able to go to the beach and run around Laguna Beach. And they definitely experienced their fair share of racism. I mean, my grandparents talked about trying to buy a house in Huntington Beach and essentially got turned away from the HOA saying that the quota had been met and they had to take the developer to Fair Housing Court to get their deposit back.

JEFF PEARLMAN: That sounds very Huntington Beach.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, right. Yeah, right. Yeah. Even then, right? And so we have those little stories, but it wasn’t like the headline of our family’s experience here in Orange County. And when I went to Tustin High School, the Marine base was still open. And I remember going to school with kids who were citizens of the world. I mean, a lot of these kids had lived all over the world, and so there was just a lot of tolerance. There was a lot of co-mingling of just kids from every background, and that stuck with me.

And so, when I was able to think about how I wanted to raise my kids, I did start to think about my experience here in Orange County and enjoying going to the beach and enjoying the diversity that existed. Because as you can imagine comparatively, although I ran to an HBCU because I wanted that experience, I kind of was a fish out of water. I had never been around that predominantly Black environment, and I had to learn how to have a voice in a space like that, which eventually I did.

But yeah, I kind of longed for the childhood that I had for my kids, a lot of diversity, a lot of beauty outside. And yeah, we’d have to search for culture here and there, but growing up, there was a better percentage of a Black community, particularly in Santa Ana, that we were very connected to. I grew up in a Black church. We still go there today, Friendship Baptist Church in Yorba Linda of all places. And we have great community there and there are African American families from all over Orange County.

But yeah, I think that’s what kind of drew me back was just that sense of childhood. And even at Tustin, although I was a minority young Black girl, I was the senior class president, I was the captain of the cheerleading squad, I was homecoming queen. So for me, being Black never felt like I couldn’t. And I just had that same mindset. And then, when I came back to Orange County, I was even more emboldened because now I understood Black excellence.

Now, I understood what it meant to be empowered and use my voice. And so, I kind of took that with my really optimistic view of how I grew up here in Orange County and then, just kind of hit the ground running versus letting that feel like that was supposed to be a barrier for me or that I couldn’t, and I wasn’t allowed into certain spaces, even though ... I’m sure it existed, but I just had a naivete that just allowed me to be bold and move forward regardless.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So you ran for the city council in 2016 …

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You’d worked in politics in New Orleans, in Louisiana. What did you learn from having your own election for the first time?

LETITIA CLARK: So you mentioned a little bit about my career. When I worked for the Georgia General Assembly after I left New Orleans for just a stint, because I was overwhelmed from all that was going on and then eventually moved back, I worked for one of the most conservative speakers of the house in Georgia history. His name was Glen Richardson. Glen Richardson. And it was part of this, almost like a fellows program that someone in New Orleans helped me get the position to just get a breather. And I learned a lot from being in his office.

I helped create some bridges and start some conversations with the Georgia Black Caucus in his office who were at odds when I got to the office. So I think I learned in the South to be what they would call a stateswoman. I learned how to cross the aisle, talk the language of being able to be a little more nonpartisan. And surprisingly enough, when I was telling folks I wanted to run, I was like, “You think it’s going to be an issue because I’m Black and I’m a woman, there’s never been one on the Tustin City Council?”

They’re like, “Yeah, we’re not worried about that.” I’m like, “Well, what about me being a single mom? Do you think that’ll be an issue?” No. They’re like, “But being a Democrat, that will never fly.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: Interesting.

LETITIA CLARK: They’re like, “You got to change that.” And I didn’t, but I was very discouraged. I was encouraged to try to move to decline the state or independent or something like that. They just thought that was going to be really hard. I knocked on doors, thousands of doors in 2016, and we knocked on Republican and Democratic doors. And when I went to Republican households, they were grilling me about certain things, often not knowing that I couldn’t handle a lot of federal issues like abortion and gun rights, et cetera.

But I’d often see some kind of paraphernalia in the house that had Tustin High on it. And so, I would make that connection right away like, “Hey, I know we’re probably different party affiliations, but I’m a Tustin Tiller.” And then all of a sudden the door opened a little wider and the conversation got a little softer. And I realized over time, okay, there are a lot of people that have some kind of connection to the oldest high school in Tustin, and I’m an alum there and I’m very connected there.

And so, I used that in the campaign to just remind people that we have a lot of similarities and we should talk about those things before we start talking about our differences. And I capitalized on that and used all those nostalgic references in my mailers. And there was a slate, two incumbents and one newcomer who was Austin Lumbard at the time who I’m running against right now. And I came in second out of the four, so their slate did not win and I beat another incumbent in terms of votes. So it was considered a very successful campaign.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Tustin confuses me a little because, okay, registration, Republicans 27%. Democrats, 41%.

LETITIA CLARK: Now, yeah. It didn’t used to be like that.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So when did that shift?

LETITIA CLARK: 2016, started to shift. Before that-

JEFF PEARLMAN: What caused that?

LETITIA CLARK: Trump. We didn’t even have a Democratic club in Tustin. There was no infrastructure to help me when I ran, no one to walk for me, no one to organize. As a Dem, I was literally on my own in Tustin. I had to rely a lot on the party and hope that maybe someone in Irvine or Garden Grove or Buena Park would come and help me out. But then after Trump was elected in 2016, then we had a Tustin Democratic Club form.

And then four years later, the Tustin Democratic Club merged with Orange, and now it’s the Central Dems, and they have over 500 members, which Democrats were in hiding when I first ran. They were like, “Yeah, I’m a Dem on paper, but I would never tell any of my neighbors.” That’s the kind of environment. So it literally changed within eight years.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So when you were mayor, you were mayor ... I mean, excuse me, you were on the council from ‘16 to ‘24. It was a rotating mayoral position at that time.

LETITIA CLARK: Right. Yeah, rotating.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So what did it mean to you? Wait, why did you do the air quotes when you said “rotating”? Were they not fair about it?

LETITIA CLARK: Because it wasn’t truly an equitable rotation. It’s not like everyone just got their turn. The council still had to vote, and they actually bypassed my colleague, Beckie Gomez, several times. She was on the council for 12 years and was never mayor. We could never get the votes to appoint her to be mayor.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So that’s happening in Mission Viejo now with a woman named Cynthia Vasquez, where she’s been on the council for a long time. She’s the lone Democrat.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: They literally won’t let her be mayor.

LETITIA CLARK: Right.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Is this just ... to be blunt, is this just asshole behavior from people who are being assholes?

LETITIA CLARK: Because when you think about it’s like, well, what does it even mean to be a mayor on a five member city ... or seven member city council, if it’s not a strong mayor position, then it literally is just the title, it’s the ceremony. And then, if the person is doing what’s right with it, they’re setting the vision and the tone of the city. But yeah, that’s why we can’t say it truly rotates because it doesn’t.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So how did you get it?

LETITIA CLARK: Worked with my colleagues, used that Southern hospitality stateswoman stuff that I learned, really. And created alliances and friendships to find a way to get to the point, understanding that, what it would mean for me to be mayor and not compromising any of my values, but not making it so much that I needed to be a martyr that it’s like, “Oh, well, they’ll just never vote for me for mayor, so I might as well just not even try.”

No, I try to make connections, develop relationships, and educate where I can. Alan Bernstein rests his soul, he passed away a few years ago. During 2020, while the aftermath of George Floyd, he called me at 11 or 12:00 one night asking me, does systemic racism really exist? And I had to tell him, “I don’t have the bandwidth to have this conversation with you, but I will have this conversation with you.” And in a way, it kind of felt like, why do I have to have this conversation?

Why do I have to educate everyone? But that’s how I developed relationships because I was willing to do it. Even though I shouldn’t have had to do it, I was willing to do some of that education. And I think my colleagues respected me for it. And yeah, I had a unanimous vote for mayor in 2020 after I was reelected. And even though I came out number one out of nine candidates, there were just folks that woke up and decided they were going to run for city council in 2020.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Is it true being the mayor of Tustin is the greatest job in the world? That’s what I heard. Is that true?

LETITIA CLARK: That’s what you heard? I’d have to check your sources, your circle of influence there.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Did you enjoy your year as mayor?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, I did. It was great. I mean, I think I had a hundred meetings online, but I know, it was insane.

JEFF PEARLMAN: All I want now is to be mayor so I can have a hundred meetings.

LETITIA CLARK: I started counting them at some point. I don’t know. I kind of felt like I was meant to be mayor at that point because I hearkened so much of what I experienced during Hurricane Katrina. It was like, okay, it’s go mode. We’re getting into restoration. We’re going to figure out how to have drive-through vaccine clinics, and we’re going to do food distribution. So I was doing all those things. It just kind of felt like we were in emergency response mode, and that was my pocket.

So it felt oddly comfortable, and I just felt like I was the right person to be mayor at that time.

JEFF PEARLMAN: What would you say your greatest achievement or moment or whatever as mayor was?

LETITIA CLARK: I mean, I have a few, and I think I feel like they are great moments because I’ve seen replication of them in other cities, and it just makes me feel like, okay, the impact was bigger and greater than just Tustin. And that’s the Girls in Government program that I helped to start. That didn’t come easy. The funding for it didn’t come easily, but trying to expose more girls in our community to jobs in the city. I helped to start Lemonade Day, a citywide Lemonade Day for kids to learn about how to set up a stand.

How to have a marketing plan, all those things. So Lakewood has done Lemonade Day. They’re doing it bigger and better than Tustin ever did. Anaheim and Lakewood actually did a Girls and Youth in Government, just literally modeled after what we did. And then honestly, writing the book was ... I had no idea how big that would become. I mean, we sold over 10,000 copies across the world.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, this was Mommy is the Mayor?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah. Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You sold 10,000 copies of your book?

LETITIA CLARK: Yes. I had no idea how successful it would be. I knew nothing about publishing. I knew nothing. And it obviously had an impact because I think it was a story that needed to be told and people hadn’t seen anything like that before. So I felt so great to be able to put something out there and it wasn’t theoretical. It was like, yes, I’m currently the mayor and I’m currently a mom, and so this is my story. And I didn’t have to say anything about me being a Black woman or the only woman.

It was all through pictures. We didn’t have to say any of that in writing. It was just illustrated and I just loved the representation in the book.

JEFF PEARLMAN: That’s cool. My knowledge of Tustin politics is not A plus. It’s probably a C minus. Why did you not run for mayor in 2022 when Austin Lumbard won the position?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, because we had term limits, so you could do eight years and it wasn’t clear that if I ran for a different position, whether it actually would restart the clock or if I would be limited and have to resign after two years because I had met the eight-year limit.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I see.

LETITIA CLARK: So something like that happened, I think in Costa Mesa and maybe Orange where the person tried to run for mayor in the middle of their council term and they were overruled that they wouldn’t be able to continue in the mayor position. So I didn’t want to waste money trying to run a mayor campaign and then have to step off and then just wanted to do it the right way. So essentially by law, it didn’t seem like I was able to run. So that’s why we really got behind Becky.

And then, we thought it was our opportunity to write history so that it’s like, “Okay, you never picked her to be the rotating appointed mayor. Let’s get her to run and get her elected” and it wasn’t successful.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You obviously served on the council with Austin Lumbard. You’re now running against him. He’s a Republican. You are not. I guess first, what was your working relationship like with him when you guys worked on the council?

LETITIA CLARK: Very cordial, very cordial. He has young kids, so we kind of always found connections in that. He’s a really quiet guy. I would say that we disagreed on a lot of policy things, but we always found a way to be extremely cordial, if not very respectful, but usually didn’t have a problem disagreeing behind the scenes. And sometimes in public would make it clear that we differed on policy issues. I guess the big comparison now is that I’ve talked in the community that the silence is deafening. It’s quiet to a fault.

There’s nothing being said about ICE presence in Tustin. There’s nothing being said about what we do to support our community to make sure that they feel seen and heard. And I mean when people are losing their SNAP benefits, when people don’t ... and I’m knocking on doors and folks are saying, “I can’t afford to live in Tustin anymore. I don’t even know how I’m going to pay my rent next month.” And so there’s just a silence from the council.

And namely in the mayor position, there’s an opportunity to speak on some of these issues that are impacting our community and there’s nothing. So that’s the real comparison there. But yeah, I mean, he’s a nice guy. We just-

JEFF PEARLMAN: It’s not a blood sport election.

LETITIA CLARK: I hope not. I hope not. And him and I had a conversation about being committed to not attacking each other. I kind of said, “Period, you won’t see any attack ads from me because it’s not my character.” And he said, “Well, you have the same commitment for me, but I can’t control what other people do.” Now, I didn’t give that caveat. I know that that can happen, but I also know that I can encourage all of my supporters to not ... to respect my wishes of the campaign. So I thought that was kind of interesting that it was kind of more of a comma, not a period.

It was a period from my perspective. But I mean, what? We’re 30 something days out, so I hope that we keep it focused on the issues and focused on our own campaigns. But yeah, he’s not one of these extremely loud MAGA Republicans that we see throughout the county or whatnot.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, I’m kind of fascinated by something. In 2019, he posted on Instagram, this isn’t me dogging him actually, he had a picture of two people holding hands, and one is a Democrat and one is a Republican, he wrote ... I don’t think he came up with this. I think he just posted it, but … This is Bob. He voted Republican. This is Bob’s friend, Sally. Sally voted Democrat. Bob and Sally are still friends because Bob and Sally are both adults. Be like Bob and Sally.

And that was seven years ago. And I actually wonder, being serious about this, and I’m not even referring specifically to your election. Is that an unrealistic look at America in 2026 or do you think we can get back to something like that?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, I’m so optimistic in almost every other regard. I think we’re so far from the days of moderates on both sides of the aisle. And I think what we’re finding, at least in the Democratic Party, is you got to just find your section of the tent. It’s such a big tent, and yeah, all of us don’t agree with every single thing, but you got to find your area and you got to laser focus on your niche and try to accomplish what’s in your sphere because there’s just so much work to be done.

But I think, yeah, I’m always going to be the side of decency, the side of equity, social justice. That’s always going to be in my bailiwick. So if a Republican can get with some of those things, then sure, we can coalesce. But as long as the Republican Party is veering so far away from that, then I think it’s hard to say we can come together because what a Democrat is and what a Republican is today is just not what it was even seven years ago.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I wish more people ... like you said, you look at Austin Lumbard’s social media, he doesn’t seem like a bad guy. I will say he posted after January 6 happened, he wrote a very heartfelt thing about how awful this is. And I would say not a peep since, not a peep about ICE, not a peep about Trump, not a peep about deportations, not a peep about the Epstein files, nothing. And the problem is real leadership isn’t like muting yourself. Real leadership is actually sometimes going against and speaking out.

And I just think, again, I got no beef with this guy. I think it kind of sucks that you don’t have the wherewithal to at least say something.

LETITIA CLARK: Right. And at some point, are you now misusing your platform because you have an opportunity to speak to the broader community and it’s just nothing.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Are you an underdog?

LETITIA CLARK: No.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Do you feel like you’re going to win this?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, I do. I think I have the base. I think we’ve raised the money. We’re knocking on doors. We’re getting endorsements. We’re in a strong position now. I’m not taking anything for granted obviously, but I’ve had to remind some folks who I think are doubting in a biased way. They’re not even looking at the data. Not only is it a majority Democrat registered area now, it’s a plus eight Dem at large city now. So what’s incumbent upon us is now to turn out the voters and we’re doing everything.

I’ll have six plus mailers going out. We’re knocking on hundreds of doors every weekend. We have a broad coalition of support from veterans to unions to just about every Democrat elected official in the county and beyond. And we launched our campaign literally a year tomorrow. So we’ve been working. And again, I’m not a new no-name candidate that I was in 2016. And so, we’re capitalizing on my record and my roots in the community. And then, doing all the things that are needed for a winning campaign.

And yeah, not taking not one day for granted and working hard. And we say often that Republicans may be able to outraise us, but that doesn’t mean they can outwork us and they definitely can’t out ... Yeah, just work ethic. They can’t outwalk us and outwork us. So that’s the goal.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Is it true asking for money is super fun?

LETITIA CLARK: Now, the mayor being the best job in the world, that might be closer to truth than raising-

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, how much does it suck asking for money?

LETITIA CLARK: It sucks so much. It just is the worst thing. But I have learned to just remind people, look, this check is not going to me. This is not for me. This is not to lie in my pockets. This is not to make me rich. This is so we have a voice. This is so we have representation. This is so we have a fighting chance. I think I’m even more passionate about not leaning into the fundraising absolutely sucks and I don’t want to do it. I’m on the phone every week, every day making some type of call.

Because I did my dissertation on women of color running for office and their fundraising experience. And just data-wise, I mean literally the best candidates out there could not raise their counterparts if they were white and male. Okay, I’ll give you a great example. I had one union, they love me, they support me. They’re like, “We’re with you, Letitia. Come meet with us.” Sat with them for an hour. They wrote me a maxed out check. Okay, awesome. I’m thinking I’m good. Then I see Austin’s report, they gave him a maxed out check too.

So I called them and I said, “Hey guys, what’s going on? Are you endorsing both of us?” “Oh no, no, we’re not endorsing both of you. We’re supporting you.” “Well, why’d you guys give him a maxed out check?” And I said, well ... and then what did he say when he met with you? What commitments did he make?” “Oh, we didn’t meet with him. One of our members just thought it’d be a good idea to send him a check.” So he’s getting checks, not even having to ask for them.

And here I am, I had to spend time, meet with these folks, and these are supportive folks. So that’s kind of what I’m up against. So I don’t have time to get too down about how much it sucks to raise money because there will be folks that just write him a check without him even asking, without him even wanting it.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I just want to say, ever since I started this website, I’ve had a good number of people say to me, “You should run for something. You should run for something.”

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You just gave up ... in the future, I’m going to literally record that segment you just said to me and just play it for anyone who says, “Why aren’t you running?” I’m just going to be like, “Here’s Letitia Clark right here. She answered for me. She didn’t even know she was doing this. Public service. Thank you.” You summed it up. Wait, I’m being serious about this.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I get it. You like the job. I get it, public service is like, it just seems so unpleasant to run for office. Is there a bright side to ... forget the winning. Is there actually a bright side to the process of running for office?

LETITIA CLARK: The process is tough. It’s literally like the sausage being made, but once you put it on the grill and it’s cooking and yeah, it tastes good. But the process of making that sausage, I don’t know anyone who says they love campaigning. Now, I’ll tell you, I’ve learned to love knocking on doors because you get to talk to people and you’re having real genuine conversations, and I do truly enjoy that part, but I’m in communications. I know you have to hear something seven times before you remember it, so it won’t matter how ... I can’t knock on every door seven times.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Yeah.

LETITIA CLARK: So, we have to raise money to do the mail, to do the ads, so people see that name enough times to remember, “Oh yeah, that’s who I talked to at my door. That’s who called me and we had this conversation.” So if I don’t want all that work to be in vain, I know I have to raise the money to help remind voters what I’m all about and what I stand for, and that’s why you need the money. But no, it is not pleasant. It is not fun.

And you’re going to get people in those three buckets. Whoever says it’s fun has a whole nother motive. It is not to serve. It is to get contacts or to find out who has money in town. It is not because they just want to serve. They’re finding enjoyment for other reasons.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Right. I’m going to end this with a couple of rapid fires. You’re good with that?

LETITIA CLARK: Okay.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Give me your three favorite musical artists of all time.

LETITIA CLARK: Okay. SWV.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Really?

LETITIA CLARK: I’m a 90s-

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, Letitia. We’re about to be best friends. My son is a 19-year-old college junior, and he loves SWV, like loves …

LETITIA CLARK: I felt like I was born 10 years too late. I was like 11 when SWV was in their prime.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Come on. SWV is awesome.

LETITIA CLARK: I was 20 years old at the time.

JEFF PEARLMAN: All right. SWV. Who else?

LETITIA CLARK: SWV, I would say D’Angelo. Rest in peace.

JEFF PEARLMAN: My son’s favorite artist.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, my gosh. Then he has great taste.

JEFF PEARLMAN: True.

LETITIA CLARK: And then probably Brandy.

JEFF PEARLMAN: If only you were a 19-year-old student at Northeastern, you’d be dating my son right now. I’m not kidding.

LETITIA CLARK: My gosh, my gosh.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You just hit three of his top five. That’s really funny.

LETITIA CLARK: Wow. I love it.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Give me your favorite movie of all time.

LETITIA CLARK: Probably Coming to America with Eddie Murphy.

JEFF PEARLMAN: The sequel, very disappointing though.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, just terrible. Just a waste of vibe.

JEFF PEARLMAN: If I can eat one meal in Tustin, where should I go?

LETITIA CLARK: Go to American Grub, get a grilled cheese and tomato soup on any given day. It could be hot, rainy. It’s literally going to hit the spot.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Where’s your favorite vacation spot you’ve ever been to?

LETITIA CLARK: We just went to Maui with the family, and it’s the first time in my family’s whole experience of ever going on vacation. I didn’t plan any excursions. I didn’t overbook us, and we had the best time and just really relaxed. So that’s probably going to be my favorite spot because my kids got to see me and my husband totally relaxed. We’re like, “Hey, do whatever you guys want. We don’t care.” And they’re like “Oh, you all are different here.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: Last question. Give me your three political role models. How about that? We’re heroes.

LETITIA CLARK: Well, Shirley Chisholm is always going to be pretty high on the list.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Yep.

LETITIA CLARK: Well, I mean, I want to say Michelle Obama, but she’s not-

JEFF PEARLMAN: You can count her.

LETITIA CLARK: And then maybe Ayanna Pressley.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Okay. Good one.

LETITIA CLARK: I borrow from her. She likes to say, “Policy is my love language,” and I resonate with that. I’m like, “Yeah, I get that.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: I recently interviewed Katrina Foley for this website, and I always thought she was from afar little gruff. And I’ve got to say, she loves meetings and she loves being wonky. And I was like, “Wow, you’re just a policy nerd.”

LETITIA CLARK: She’s such a nerd in all the good ways, right?

JEFF PEARLMAN: Totally. Are you the same?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, and I don’t have a lot of ... my circle’s pretty small, so I don’t just surround myself around a lot of politically wonky people, but when I find folks that I can just nerd out with over politics who are actually genuine friends, it is literally the best.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I’ve got to say—dinner with Letitia Clark. Maybe not that fun.

LETITIA CLARK: Hahahaha. Well, if we keep the politics out of, it might be fun. We just can’t call it a meeting, Jeff.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, let me ask you a final, final question. Actually being serious, I ask this of everyone. Do you think, whatever, 10, 15, 20 years from now, we look back at this period and we think that was really the ruination of America, that was the beginning of the end and everything with Trump just ruined this place. Do you think we look back and say, “That was a really dark period that somehow we got past?”

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah. Yeah. And I think it kind of starts with January 6th. There was so much chaos going on before that, but once ... it was such a violation, which oddly enough, I actually heard that Austin had commented on a Jesus statue being violated in Santa Ana, and our veteran statue, something happened ... someone was trying to steal the copper, and he had gone on record saying that it was such a violation. It’s like, “Yes, you’re right. It is a violation.” So how are any of us okay with what happened on January 6th.

Have you ever been in the halls, and if you’ve ever been in any place where it’s supposed to be solemn and respectful, and to see what happened, and it was allowed, and it was encouraged, and I think we crossed a line that we haven’t been able to get that back since then. And yeah, I do hope ... I don’t know about 10 years though, Jeff. I don’t know, but I think we will get to a time saying, “How do we get through that?” And we never want to go back to that. It’s like a pendulum.

And what we saw in 2020 was that pendulum swing far, far to the left. Everyone was DEI. Then we added the A, and everyone was all on board and okay to say Black Lives Matter, and then it shifted right back. We just need to get a little bit swinging left of center again. So yeah, I don’t know. I don’t know what will happen to get a-

JEFF PEARLMAN: But what I’m hearing you say is Black Lives do not matter. Is that what I’m- [Laughs]

LETITIA CLARK: [Laughs] I’m definitely not saying that.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I didn’t think so.

#TOC

September 30, 2026

A Washington Post headline today read: “U.S. withdraws forces in Iraq as balance of power shifts to Iran.”

Journalists Mustafa Salim and Alex Horton explained: After more than two decades, the deaths of more than 200,000 Iraqi civilians and more than 4,500 U.S. troops, the wounding of more than 30,000 U.S. military personnel, and the cost of more than $2.8 trillion, the last of the U.S. military forces in Iraq today pulled out of Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq.

In December 2021 the military announced it was ending U.S. combat in Iraq, leaving about 2,500 troops to advise and assist Iraqi forces. In 2023 the Iraqi government called for complete U.S. withdrawal, and former President Joe Biden and former Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani agreed to a withdrawal plan in 2024, but Iraq allowed a small contingent of advisors to remain after that deadline when the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria led to concerns that the confusion in Syria would allow militant Islamic groups to regain a foothold there.

At the time Biden agreed to withdraw from Iraq, Iran appeared to be on the ropes, with its regime isolated from neighboring countries and laboring under sanctions and increasing public unrest. Now, as Salim and Horton note, Trump’s impulsive war on Iran has strengthened Iran’s hand in the region.

The U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on the United States two years before, although Iraq was not involved in that attack.

After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, a group of foreign policy hawks known as “neocons” were frustrated that Democratic President Bill Clinton was not pushing American ideology overseas as hard as they thought he should. In 1997, political commentator William Kristol brought together Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and other neocons to insist that the United States should significantly increase defense spending and lead the world.

Believing that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein was destabilizing the Middle East, they saw removing him from power as key to their “Project for the New American Century.” Iraq had allied with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and neocons believed the U.S. must “challenge regimes hostile to our interests and values” and “promote the cause of political and economic freedom abroad.”

Saddam was out of reach until September 11, 2001, when neocons saw al-Qaeda’s attack on the U.S. as an opportunity to “hit” Saddam Hussein, although he had not been involved in the attack. The terrorists—fifteen from Saudi Arabia, two from the United Arab Emirates, one from Lebanon, and one from Egypt—were operating out of Afghanistan, where the ruling extremist Islamic government, the Taliban, permitted al-Qaeda to have a foothold.

Although Saddam was not affiliated with the 9/11 attackers, officials in the George W. Bush administration pushed so hard on the idea that the terrorists were affiliated with Iraq that many Americans—especially those who watched the Fox News Channel, which pushed the connection—came to believe, incorrectly, that the 9/11 terrorists either were Iraqi or were

working with Saddam Hussein.

Bush launched attacks on the Taliban government, successfully overthrowing it before the end of 2001. And then the administration undertook to reorder the Middle East in America’s image. In 2002 it announced the Bush Doctrine, arguing that the new conditions of terrorism required the government to act preemptively to forestall hostile acts rather than wait for an attack.

It embraced the idea that there was “right and wrong” in foreign affairs and demanded that America wage “a war of ideas” by spreading pro-American economic and cultural policies. It warned that there were few greater threats to America than a terrorist attack with weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), meaning nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons.

To convince recalcitrant foreign policy realists that Saddam Hussein needed to be removed from power, Bush administration officials warned that the dictator was amassing WMDs, including nuclear devices. In a television interview, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice warned of mushroom clouds rising over American cities and insisted that Saddam was working to obtain a nuclear weapon.

On February 5, 2003, Secretary of State Colin Powell, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke passionately before the United Nations, providing what he insisted was evidence that Saddam had chemical WMDs and had obtained the resources to create nuclear weapons. He hinted that the Iraqi leader had worked with al-Qaeda in 2001 or that he might in the future.

Powell was well known and trusted; if he said Iraq was deadly dangerous, people thought it must be true. It later turned out that Powell had not personally vetted the “evidence” he presented and that it was almost entirely either discredited or made up of rumor.

But his speech did the trick. Enough countries to call it a “coalition of the willing”—although the only major power that participated was the United Kingdom—backed an invasion of Iraq. On March 20, 2003, American troops invaded Iraq with the intention of overthrowing Saddam Hussein’s government. The operation would be a “cakewalk,” the administration thought; desperate Iraqis who hated their leader would welcome coalition forces with open arms. Like cowboy heroes—and often portrayed as cowboys—American soldiers would bring democracy and capitalism to the benighted Iraqis.

Saddam’s forces crumbled in little over a month. By May the United States had set up a transitional government in Iraq overseen by former ambassador and State Department official L. Paul Bremer.

On May 1, 2003, Bush landed in a fixed-wing aircraft on the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. Wearing a flight suit, he posed for photographs with the vessel’s crew, which had just returned from the Persian Gulf. Bush then gave a speech announcing the end of major combat operations in Iraq. Festooning the aircraft carrier was a giant banner emblazoned “Mission Accomplished.”

But, of course, it wasn’t.

Today on social media, Trump took credit to himself for ending the U.S. engagement in Iraq—although he confused the names of two different Iraqi operations—complaining that it was “very bad decision-making that got us involved in this quagmire in the first place.”

And yet the United States is entering its eighth month of a war on Iran that Trump apparently began with the same cowboy mentality Bush carried into the war in Iraq.

Today Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a “State of the Force” address at Marine Corps Base Quantico. He announced he had transformed the military by enforcing the idea of “[n]o fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals. Just warriors.”

“The ideological clowns are out,” he said. “The patriotic cowboys are in, with testosterone testing on top.”

—

Notes:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/29/us-withdraws-forces-iraq-balance-power-shifts-iran/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/18/middleeast/iraq-announces-full-withdrawal-of-us-forces-from-its-federal-territory

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/30/pentagon-says-us-troop-withdrawal-from-iraq-is-complete

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/iraqs-search-for-security-and-sovereignty-after-assads-collapse/

“Statement of Principles,” June 3, 1997, and Elliott Abrams et al. to William Jefferson Clinton, January 26, 1998, both at Project for a New American Century.

Steven Kull, Clay Ramsay, and Evan Lewis, “Misperceptions, the Media, and the Iraq War,” Political Science Quarterly 118 (Winter 2003/2004) : 569–598.

https://www.cnn.com/2003/US/01/10/wbr.smoking.gun/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/magazine/2006/10/01/falling-on-his-sword-span-classbankheadcolin-powells-most-significant-moment-turned-out-to-be-his-lowestspan/0574eff4-0137-4c0a-8e6b-f8bf7575f389/

https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/14/1/5.2

https://www.npr.org/2026/09/30/nx-s1-5986304/hegseth-troops-address

Trump’s Truth:

statuses/42030

Bluesky:

atrupar.com/post/3mwr274cutq2l

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Alvin Roth to the rescue, the polity that is Singapore

Singapore has launched a dating platform, the latest social-engineering experiment by the city-state’s government to tackle its fast-declining fertility rate.

The initiative, known as FirstDate, opened under a pilot scheme this month for public sector employees aged 21-35 and uses a Nobel Economics Prize-winning matchmaking algorithm. An additional tool suggests date activities and allows users — who receive only one match at a time — to rate their experience in a survey.

The platform is the product of the annual hackathon held by the Singapore government’s technology agency earlier this year.

“FirstDate started with a question among a group of GovTech officers: does having more potential matches necessarily make it easier to find a suitable match?” the website said.

The app, which joins a crowded field of dating apps as well as more bespoke matchmaking services, is Singapore’s latest effort to reverse its falling birth rate, which has made the city-state one of the world’s fastest-ageing countries.

Here is more from Owen Walker at the FT.

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Launch preview: More than 100 spacecraft hitch a ride to orbit on SpaceX’s Transporter-18

A Falcon 9 rocket stands ready for launch from Vandenberg in this file photo. Image: SpaceX.

An artificial intelligence prototype from Google, a methane-tracker, pharmaceutical manufacturing labs, and more are hitching a ride onboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket flying from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Thursday afternoon.

The Transporter-18 mission is SpaceX second launch of the day, following the successful flight of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission from Florida.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East is scheduled for 11:32 a.m. PDT (2:32 p.m. EDT / 1832 UTC). The rocket will head off on a southerly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about 30 minutes prior to liftoff.

SpaceX will launch the mission using the Falcon 9 booster with the tail number B1082. This will be its 25th flight following the launches of NROL-145, USSF-62, and OneWeb Launch 20, and 21 batches of Starlink satellites.

Nearly 7.5 minutes after liftoff, B1082 will target a landing back at Landing Zone 4. This will be the 36th landing at this site and 665th landing of a Falcon booster to date.

The 130 payloads will be deployed into a polar orbit of the course of 11 minutes starting about 54 minutes into the flight.

Thursday assorted links

1. Cato’s Vision for Liberty award for 50k.

2. Gross output signals an economic surge (WSJ).

3. Echo, a new AI site to mimic the styles of particular writers or writing styles.  Thread on it here.

4. “Open USD (OUSD), the new stablecoin from Coinbase, Mastercard, Stripe, Visa and others launches…”

5. Are men or women more tolerant of differing views?

6. On AI desires.

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China launches Guowang, Yaogan-40 satellites, sets up busy Q4 manifest

HELSINKI — China completed its ninth and tenth launches of September, sending Guowang and Yaogan satellites into orbit, ahead of an intense finish to the year. A Long March 8A […]

The post China launches Guowang, Yaogan-40 satellites, sets up busy Q4 manifest appeared first on SpaceNews.

Galileo Space Is Building Satellites That Turn Signals Into Answers in Orbit

Galileo Space is building satellites designed to turn signals into answers in orbit. Modern defense and commercial operations need fast answers about what is happening and where. Existing systems can […]

The post Galileo Space Is Building Satellites That Turn Signals Into Answers in Orbit appeared first on SpaceNews.

What should I ask Moxie Marlinspike?

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him, live at the Roots of Progress event next week.  From Wikipedia:

Moxie Marlinspike is an American entrepreneur, cryptographer, and computer security researcher. Marlinspike is the creator of Signal, co-founder of the Signal Technology Foundation, and served as the first CEO of Signal Messenger LLC. He is also a co-author of the Signal Protocol encryption used by Signal, WhatsApp, Google Messages, Facebook Messenger and Skype.

There is much more at the link, for instance he is also an anarchist of some kind or another.  So what should I ask him?

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Rethinking risk with electronics for space

In this episode, SpaceNews’ Mike Gruss speaks with Ken Stoler, the space business development lead for Arrow. They discuss how spacecraft designers and operators have changed their attitudes toward risk, […]

The post Rethinking risk with electronics for space appeared first on SpaceNews.

LMT Group and Novaspace partner to develop strategy for 5G/6G satellite communications hub in Latvia

Noordwijk, the Netherlands | September 22, 2026 – During the international Industry Space Days 2026 event at the European Space Agency’s ESTEC facility in Noordwijk, the Netherlands, the Latvian Mobile Telephone […]

The post LMT Group and Novaspace partner to develop strategy for 5G/6G satellite communications hub in Latvia appeared first on SpaceNews.

First Date: Singapore's government dating app

The government of Singapore is rolling out a dating site, initially as "A pilot for public officers only."  It infers preferences from questionnaire responses, and uses the deferred acceptance algorithm to produce one match per participant in each match run.

Here it is: FirstDate.
"Start something real.
An initiative to support singles aged 21-35 in their dating journey, verified using Singpass."
"Find your match.  Applications close on 05 Oct 23:59" 

"Swipe fatigue ends here. Receive one match at a time, so you can focus on building a thoughtful connection.

"Designed with your privacy in mind. Only your match sees your profile, and you decide if your contact details are shared. 

...

"What is FirstDate?
"FirstDate started with a question among a group of GovTech officers: does having more potential matches necessarily make it easier to find a suitable match?

"The team shared an interest in exploring some of the challenges people can face when meeting someone new. They wondered whether a different approach that places greater emphasis on compatibility through values and preferences, and offers fewer matches at a time, could give users more space to consider each introduction and decide whether they would like to take the next step. They explored the idea at GovTech Singapore's annual {build} hackathon, where officers develop and test new ideas.

"That idea became FirstDate, a ground-up pilot initiative currently being tested across Public Service.


"How does the matching work?
FirstDate uses your questionnaire responses, including your interests, habits, values and preferences, to understand what you're looking for in a potential partner.

"It then applies the Gale-Shapley Stable Marriage algorithm, an established mathematical approach that generates pairings based on participants' preferences to recommend matches based on compatibility."

#########

Here's some  coverage from Singapore Samizdat:

How Singapore’s government-run dating service works, and why it won’t solve the nation’s dating woes
Here are the 30+ questions in the matchmaking tool that Singapore is deploying to solve the incel problem. 

"Three years after the demise of the Social Development Network, it looks like a new government-run matchmaker is back on the cards for Singapore.

Earlier this month, a pilot progamme by GovTech called FirstDate was announced, with government workers set to be the first batch of daters. If this sounds familiar, that’s because I was the first to report on GovTech testing the waters with this idea all the way back in April for The Straits Times."

#######

Financial Times,
Singapore taps Nobel-winning formula for government dating app
 

 

Green tree ants are famous in the tropics

Collage of close-up photos of ants on greenery with varying poses; detailed view highlights ant features and textures.

In tropical forests ruled by aggressive ants, these species have adopted a ‘fake it till you make it’ survival strategy

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Reason is more than a tool

Close-up photo of a circuit board with two CPU-like components showing classical portraits instead of standard chips.

If intelligence is merely optimisation then machines will outrun us. Kant tells us why human reason is so much more

- by Sasha Mudd

Read on Aeon

Quoting Matthew Green

[...] Put these pieces together and you have the two halves of a worm: a payload that hijacks the agent, and an agent that will carry the payload to the next agent. Agents in separately-isolated sandboxes discovered that they could leave instructions for each other in a shared package cache, and those instructions changed what the recipients did. Replace the package cache with email, Slack and shared documents or WhatsApp, and replace independently-sandboxed training runs with independently-deployed personal agents like Muse, and you have exactly the ingredients that a worm needs.

— Matthew Green, Is sandboxing sufficient to contain rogue agents?

Tags: accidental-cyberattacks, ai-misuse, generative-ai, ai-security-research, sandboxing, ai, llms

The top private sector employers of economics graduates

Image

Here is the link.

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Merging LLMs and economics research

We introduce an open-source workflow that enables an LLM to reproduce, improve, and extend an economics article using the article’s published replication package. First, the workflow attempts to reproduce the original calculations, checks for discrepancies with published findings, and performs automated sensitivity analysis. Across 4,452 published replication packages for five economics journals, the workflow flags discrepancies in 3,460 articles or their appendices. Second, the workflow improves the original calculations by using a different implementation or algorithm. In 496 articles, the workflow is able to reduce a calculation’s computation time, at similar or greater accuracy, by more than a factor of 10. Third, the workflow extends the original analysis. In 923 articles, the workflow develops an extension that does not appear in the original article and that is aligned with the original article’s goals and assumptions.

That is from a new paper by Matthew Schwartz, Isaiah Andrews & Jesse M. Shapiro.  At some point, in some cases, the paper will just fade into the backround…

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NASA, SpaceX launch next crewed mission to the International Space Station

SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft, named Grace, sits atop a Falcon 9 rocket at Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. It will launch NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Update: The Crew 13 mission lifted off on time. A full report will be posted soon.

SpaceX and NASA are preparing to send the next crew of four to the International Space Station as soon as Thursday morning, weather permitting.

The mission, NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13, is led by NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, who will become the first agency astronaut to fly twice onboard a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft.

She along with NASA Astronaut Luke Delaney, Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Joshua Kutryk, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov, will fly onboard Dragon Grace to the ISS for a six-month expedition.

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station is scheduled for 11:10 a.m. EDT (1510 UTC). The rocket will fly on a north-easterly trajectory upon leaving the pad. Docking is scheduled to occur about eight hours after launch, the shortest transit time ever for a Dragon spacecraft.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage about four hours prior to liftoff.

The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 55 percent chance for acceptable weather at launch. Meteorologists are watching for the potential interference from clouds and rain at the pad.

“Over the next 24 hours, a weak low-level disturbance sliding along the south side of the high into the Gulf will bring breezy onshore flow that will continue into the primary launch window late Thursday morning,” launch weather officers wrote on Wednesday.

“Models still suggest the continued threat for onshore moving Atlantic showers along the coast, with the exact timing and locations of this activity the main forecast challenge.”

SpaceX will launch the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1101. This will be its third flight after previously launching 29 Starlink V2 Mini satellites on the Starlink 6-88 mission and Dragon Freedom on NASA’s SpaceX Crew-12.

Less than eight minutes after liftoff, B1101 will return to Cape Canaveral and target a touchdown at Landing Zone 40 (LZ-40). If all goes well, this will be the seventh landing at LZ-40 and the 664th Falcon booster landing to date.

SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft, named Grace, sits atop a Falcon 9 rocket at Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. It will launch NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Who’s onboard?

The Crew-13 mission is the second trip to space for Commander Jessica Watkins who previously served as a mission specialist on the Crew-4 mission, which flew in 2022.

Watkins, a geologist and avid athlete, spent her time in between missions working as a branch chief within the Astronaut Office and later, did some work in support of the crewed rovers and spacesuits needed for future Moon-bound missions within the Artemis Program.

“I certainly would ideally like to be a servant leader. I think that is something that I have learned through my experiences, but also my interactions with leaders that I look up to and that I want to emulate,” Watkins said. “And that has come in the form of coaches, of mentors, of teachers, and of my crewmates and classmates as well here at NASA.”

The four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission arrived onboard T-38 jets at the Kennedy Space Center on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026. Left to right: Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk, Roscomos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov, NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, and NASA astronaut Luke Delaney. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

At her side in the pilot’s seat is a former test pilot Luke Delaney. Before being selected as a member of the 2021 astronaut class, he worked as a research pilot and aerospace engineer at NASA’s Langley Research Center in Virginia.

Delaney grew up in Central Florida and said watching the space shuttle launches was a big inspiration for him and helped influence his life’s trajectory.

“Growing up watching shuttle launches, they weren’t quite as frequent back then, so it was a pretty big deal if you’re able to catch a space shuttle launch. And they definitely played a part in driving me towards both engineering background a little bit, plus aviation and those kind of things,” Delaney said.

“I think it’s just when you’re little and you see something like that and you’re trying to reconcile that there’s humans on that vehicle and they’re going to go live in space for a little bit and come back, that’s just a huge motivation, inspiration, however you want to put it. So for me, yeah, that was a big pinnacle aspect of going down that track for an astronaut.”

NASA astronaut Luke Delaney, pilot of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission, talks to members of the press after arriving at the Kennedy Space Center on Sept. 26, 2026. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

Another member of the crew who dreamed of becoming an astronaut ever since childhood is one of the two mission specialists, Joshua Kutryk. He becomes the second Canadian to fly to space in 2026 after Jeremy Hansen flew with the Artemis 2 crew.

The last Canadian who served onboard the space station was David Saint-Jacques who launched in December 2018 and returned to earth in June 2019.

Kutryk, who was selected by CSA to train as an astronaut in 2017, was previously assigned to the Boeing Starliner-1 mission, but that flight was altered to a cargo-only mission following the significant issues that arose throughout the Starliner Crew Flight Test mission.

“Excited because it’s been a long time, dreamt about my whole life. Been training for it for a lot of years, a lot of years, and you know about the Starliner history because we talked about it last time,” Kutryk told Spaceflight Now this summer. “So for all those reasons, really excited to have it this close. And then also, I think we all, all four of us would say this, we feel proud to be representing our nations, our agencies to be trusted and given the opportunity to do this.”

The other mission specialist is Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov. He was selected for cosmonaut training by Roscosmos in 2021 and became a test cosmonaut two years later. 

He said it was a chance meeting that put him on the path that will soon take him to space.

“In the course of my career, at some point, I had a meeting with a cosmonaut, those are regularly held. And I was told that actually there is an open contest, and one can try to become a cosmonaut, which I did when I was 30 years old,” Teteryatnikov said through the aid of a translator. “And that’s how it all started, and I started my cosmonaut training in 2021.”

The crew will join the other members of Expedition 75 on the space station. After a handover period of a few days, the members of the SpaceX Crew-12 mission will board Dragon Freedom to head back home.

The four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission arrived onboard T-38 jets at the Kennedy Space Center on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026. Left to right: Roscomos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov, NASA astronaut Luke Delaney, NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 030521
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Fri Oct 02 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nolo, located several hundred miles west of the main Hawaiian
Islands, and on Hurricane Rachel, located just over a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NNNN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABNT20 KNHC 030529
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nolo, located several hundred miles west of the main Hawaiian
Islands, and on Hurricane Rachel, located just over a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or
early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next
week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Excessive Rainfall Possible This Weekend; October Heat Wave in California