Best films of 2026

I thought this was a splendid and highly innovative year.  Here is my list, in the order I saw them, noting that a link typically brings you to my review:

Resurrection

Testament of Ann Lee

28 Years Later

Wuthering Heights

Sirat

Project Hail Mary

A Man on the Run

The Drama

The Blue Trail

Silent Friend

The Pressure

Blue Heron

The Invite

The Odyssey

Finding Emily

You Can See Everything

Fjord

Fatherland

Godzilla: Minus Zero

Queen at Sea

What else?  La Bola Negra has good reviews but I have not seen it yet.  Confession is receiving raves.  Of those listed, Sirat would be my definite favorite, big screen required of course.

I will give you an update for the rest of the year later in December, noting that anything appearing on Dec.31 in LA and NYC counts as 2027 for me.

The post Best films of 2026 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

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November 14, 2026

I just got home after what feels like a very long last few months, and I am very glad to be here.

Going to leave you tonight with a picture of my brother-in-law’s boat from the kayak, in the midst of the choppy seas and the low light of autumn, and will pick the outside world back up again tomorrow.

Sleep well, everyone.

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Investigations

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November 13, 2026

President Trump has not taken the idea of investigations of his administration lightly. On Saturday, November 7, he posted on social media that he was ordering the Department of Justice to investigate Democrats’ promises to investigate the administration’s corruption and mismanagement, calling those promises “criminal.”

On Monday, November 9, White House counsel Will Scharf, the top lawyer in the White House, sent a letter to Representative Robert Garcia (D-CA), who is expected to take over the House Oversight Committee, warning that the Democrat’s promise to investigate the actions of the Trump administration “may cross the line into blatant criminality.” Scharf leaned on the requirement that Congress’s investigations must have a legislative purpose—a requirement that current Republican chair James Comer of Kentucky ignored—and charged that Democratic lawmakers are issuing “abusive and capricious threats…to intimidate and to interfere with the lawful functioning of government.”

Then, on November 11, Aaron Reitz, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Texas, wrote to Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), who is in line to chair the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations after January, claiming that Blumenthal’s plans to investigate who donated to Trump’s ballroom and other pet causes, and under what circumstances, was an unconstitutional attempt to prevent free association. He continued, suggesting that Blumenthal was trying “to intimidate citizens for engaging in philanthropic practices that will benefit our nation for generations.”

Threatening Blumenthal with “significant legal consequences” for “you, your staff, employees, agents, consultants, campaign personnel, and any other person acting on your behalf or in concert with you,” he demanded Blumenthal preserve all records “relevant to your intent to deprive citizens of their core constitutional rights.”

Garcia and Blumenthal were having none of it. Garcia told A. Martínez and Majd Al-Waheidi of NPR, “We’re not going to be deterred, and we’re certainly not going to be intimidated by Donald Trump or anyone in the administration.” Garcia said that among the committee’s top priorities would be investigating Trump family corruption, including a $2 billion investment in Jared Kushner’s investment firm, and looking into allegations of corrupt contracts involving former Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem and former DHS advisor Corey Lewandowski. “Our job is to investigate, to take issues to the courts, to make criminal referrals, and to write good legislation so that this kind of corruption doesn’t happen again,” Garcia said.

Blumenthal wrote back to Reitz, saying that his letter was “just the latest in a series of unlawful actions on the part of the Trump Administration attempting to intimidate Members of Congress for engaging in constitutionally protected activity” and adding, “Your implied threat of an investigation is baseless.” He warned: “I will not be intimidated.”

Blumenthal told Reitz to preserve records himself, writing: “The public deserves to know the terms under which dozens of American companies were persuaded to donate millions of dollars to the President’s vanity projects, and whether lawsuits were dismissed, contracts were awarded, or regulations went unenforced in exchange for that money. The public deserves transparency about whether the White House and the corporations it cajoled extracted favors at the expense of American taxpayers. Not only are these appropriate subjects for congressional oversight, but such inquiries are among the constitutional duties that Members of Congress must undertake to become informed about matters on which legislation may be necessary.”

When it appeared bullying wouldn’t work, Trump turned to rage and self-pity. Yesterday morning, at 5:50, he tried to insist that it was the Democrats, not him, who are corrupt. “The Democrat Party, lead [sic] by one of the most Corrupt and anti-American groups of political leaders and hacks in the history of our Country, and even the World, is doing everything in their power to get away from MASSIVE BLUE STATE CORRUPTION by saying, over and over again, that the Trump Administration is corrupt,” he posted. “THE DEMOCRATS ARE CORRUPT AND EVIL, and I am the exact opposite!” Then, echoing the words he used at his rally at the Ellipse on January 6, 2021, before he urged the crowd to move to the U.S. Capitol, he added: “Fight hard, Republicans, or you won’t have a Country left!”

He continued to rage post about Democrats’ corruption through the morning. But by the afternoon, Attorney General Todd Blanche was walking back the suggestion that Democratic lawmakers’ promise to conduct oversight had been criminal. “There can come a point when a criticism becomes a threat, and then when a threat becomes something criminal and…I never said that that point has been crossed. I haven’t said that,” Blanche told reporters. Scharf, too, backpedaled, saying on Newsmax that all he had asked for was “that everybody follows the law.”

Even as the administration suggests congressional investigations into its behavior might be criminal, a monumental scandal has erupted in the administration. The chief executive officer of Nvidia, the maker of the highly advanced chips at the center of AI development, resigned yesterday after news broke that he has been engaged in an extramarital affair with a woman believed to be a Chinese spy.

On October 29, Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Ana Swanson, Paul Mozur, Tripp Mickle, and Julian E. Barnes of the New York Times reported that about a year ago, intelligence agents had informed Trump that Nvidia’s Jensen Huang was engaged in an affair with Alice Huang, a woman assessed to be a Chinese intelligence agent. But Trump “chose not to do anything with the information.”

Ms. Huang worked for Megaspeed, a company that buys Nvidia chips and then provides computing power to Chinese companies. It has been suspected of being a cut-out company that smuggles chips to China. According to the New York Times journalists, intelligence agents thought Ms. Huang was funneling information to Beijing.

On Thursday, November 5, House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Brian Mast (R-FL), House Select Committee on China chair John Moolenaar (R-MI), and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence chair Rick Crawford (R-AR) wrote to Huang requesting that he appear before their committees to brief them on his interactions with Ms. Huang, “a publicly reported People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence asset, and NVIDIA’s security protocols against foreign adversary espionage.”

“Recent reports raise significant national security concerns regarding the PRC’s access to sensitive U.S. technology and information,” they wrote. “It is vital that Congress determines the extent to which U.S. national security has been placed at risk.”

On Sunday, November 8, Huang admitted the affair and Nvidia’s board announced it was opening an independent investigation into whether Huang was the “target of a foreign intelligence effort.” On Monday, November 9, Nvidia’s stock began to drop, and on November 11 the New York Times reported on a second affair. On November 12, Nvidia’s stock price dropped from $151 billion to $135 billion.

As Maureen Farrell and Rob Copeland of the New York Times reported, with Huang at the helm, Nvidia has bankrolled much of the nation’s AI buildout, and his support for it has kept the money rolling in. Huang has boosted AI as important to the national security of the United States and key to the nation’s future. After Huang resigned yesterday, just hours before news broke of a third relationship, Nvidia’s value fell again. Over the course of the week, the company lost nearly $493 billion in market value.

The crisis is dividing the administration. As Ian Duncan, Zach Dorfman, and Warren P. Strobel of the Washington Post reported this afternoon, Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, along with Huang, wanted to let Nvidia sell chips to China in exchange for a 15% cut of the revenue going to the U.S. government.

In contrast, the journalists explain, “a bipartisan group of government officials, lawmakers and think tank analysts…view Nvidia’s chips as a vital asset in the rivalry between the two nations and one that the U.S. should strictly control.”

When Trump, who as of November 9 owned more than $12.5 million of Nvidia stock, told reporters he had not been informed about Huang’s relationship with Ms. Huang, sources told Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan, Julian E. Barnes, Ana Swanson, and Tripp Mickle of the New York Times that he had indeed been informed: Secretary of State Marco Rubio had told him, and the president had nonetheless brought Huang with him on a trip to China.

On CNBC today, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent blamed Lutnick for failing to put Megaspeed on an export blacklist. Luke Fountain of CNBC reported today that Cantor Fitzgerald, the financial services firm Lutnick used to chair and which his sons now run, has extensive ties to Nvidia.

On Fox Business today, host Stuart Varney summed up the scandal during a discussion of its national security implications: “[W]e have to ask if anyone in the administration had a financial interest in getting those chips through to Beijing. That’s what this is all about, really, isn’t it?”

Trump was nowhere to be seen this afternoon when the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) abruptly grounded all planes in the U.S. for about five hours forcing 6,600 flights to be canceled and another 8,600 delayed, stranding passengers across the country. Trump’s only communication with the public was a long post about the entertainment industry. When Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy held a press conference about the crisis, he blamed Congress for not fixing the system and demanded $50 billion to update it.

“Cut the crap,” Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker posted. “Trump and Republicans have controlled Congress and could have funded the system. The public needs real answers and immediate action.”

But it wasn’t going to get them from the president. When a reporter said to Duffy at a press conference, “You say this is a priority for President Trump. Why have we not heard from him at all on this issue since it happened?” Duffy answered: “The two of us have talked to him.”

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg stepped in to explain that “the system has many redundancies in it, so that normally, if there’s one point of failure, something else can catch it.” During his tenure, the most extreme disruption to air travel lasted about an hour and a half when a system failed, he said, but “there were actually four different systems, and when one of them went out, another one could be brought online to cover that. So it is not clear to me why that redundancy did not prevent an outage of this magnitude in terms of scope and duration. This is the biggest nationwide ground stop since 9/11. But again, we don’t know much. I certainly don’t want to speculate.”

Asked about Trump administration officials’ charge that the Biden administration hadn’t upgraded the system, Buttigieg answered: “Well, we did a lot to upgrade the system.” He added: “When we had an outage, I didn’t stand there complaining about the Trump administration. We got to work, and I’m certain that that’s what the career officials and the career day-to-day employees at FAA and USD[epartment] O[f] T[ransportation] are doing. This should not be about politics.

“What I will say, of course, is that there needs to be answers, and there needs to be transparency about what happened. I imagine there will be a lot of interest on Capitol Hill. Obviously, there’s a lot of interest in the public. And again, as a member of the flying public, as well as somebody who cares a lot about what goes on in the national airspace, I will have a lot of interest in getting answers to it.”

—

Notes:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-the-letter-the-white-houses-top-lawyer-sent-rep-garcia-over-threats-to-investigate-trump

https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2026/11/Garcia-Letter-Signed_11.10.2026.pdf

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/sen-blumenthal-says-federal-prosecutor-attempting-to-investigate-him-for-conducting-an-inquiry

https://www.npr.org/2026/11/12/nx-s1-6037540/trump-white-house-democrats-investigations-robert-garcia

blumenthal.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/20261111_letter_from_rm_blumenthal_to_aaron_reitzpdf.pdf

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/11/12/todd-blanche-justice-department-democrats-oversight

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/politics/nvidia-china-jensen-huang-trump.html

https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/news/press-releases/chairmen-mast-moolenaar-and-crawford-request-jensen-huang-brief-congress-on-link-to-chinese-intelligence-asset

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharyfolk/2026/11/08/nvidia-investigating-ceo-jensen-huangs-relationship-with-alleged-chinese-spy-after-he-admits-affair/

https://www.reuters.com/live/nvidia-live-board-meets-fate-ceo-jensen-huang-after-affair-reports-2026-11-12/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2026/11/13/jensen-huang-ousted-timeline-of-the-nvidia-scandal/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/11/technology/jensen-huang-nvidia-affair.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/13/business/jensen-huang-nvidia-wall-street.html

https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/spotlights/2025/us-will-get-a-15-cut-of-nvidia-and-amd-chip-sales-to-china-under-a-new-unusual-agreement/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/11/13/behind-jensen-huangs-spy-scandal-shadow-war-trumps-ear-china/

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/stocks-owned-by-donald-trump

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/us/politics/trump-china-trip-nvidia.html

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/13/politics/bessent-lutnick-nvidia-megaspeed-blame

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/13/howard-lutnick-nvidia-jensen-huang-china-cantor-fitzgerald.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/faa-issues-national-ground-stop-due-extraordinary-circumstance-reasons-safety-2026-11-13/

Trump’s Truth:

statuses/43507

statuses/43554

statuses/43556

statuses/43568

X:

USAttyReitz/status/2120632462686711838/photo/1

Bluesky:

anthonymkreis.bsky.social/post/3n23d2npobc25

atrupar.com/post/3n27vcwl3gk2h

flightradar24.com/post/3n27uz5p42c2d

nothoodlum.bsky.social/post/3n2agqqqkzs24

govpritzker.illinois.gov/post/3n2agxnrb7c2d

thebulwark.com/post/3n2agskodwb2s

adamparkhomenko.bsky.social/post/3n2ak6qi3zc2m

atrupar.com/post/3n236zkhnqa2z

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Politics Chat, November 13, 2026

Watch today’s live recording here.

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J.J. Galvez fought his ass off

JJ. Galvez—all that, and a healthy plate.

So eight months ago I sat down in Orange with J.J. Galvez, the perky-yet-longshot Democratic candidate in the State Assembly District 71 race. His odds of beating (or even challenging) incumbent Kate Sanchez seemed long, but folks kept raving about his oomph, his spunk, his sparkle.

They were correct.

J.J. wound up falling short, but the race proved shockingly close, and the 34-year-old gunslinger has to be considered an up-and-comer in local political. J.J. posted this on his Substack, and I thought it worth sharing (with his approval).

I bring you J.J. Galvez …

•••

Team, we did not win this race.

However, we achieved a historic overperformance. We’re at 46.4 percent of the vote and on track for nearly 100,000 votes. In 2024, the challenger in this district got 38.5 percent with about 92,000 votes. We cut a 23-point gap to under eight, and we’re on pace to earn more total votes in a midterm.

We did that despite only raising about $120,000 (six times less than my opponent). Of the roughly $720,000 my opponent raised, only about $12,000 came from individuals. I’m proud that we accepted no corporate donations.

And we’re not done. We’re still helping with ballot curing so every valid vote counts for other local candidates. This isn’t about me. It’s about a movement that believes we can build a better future for all.

Unity was a major theme of this campaign. At a time of so much division, we need to remember that there are no “red” or “blue” areas, only American areas. Let’s turn the page and start working together again. Let’s have debates about solving problems, not about insulting each other.

This was my first time running for office. As an immigrant, I felt it was important to stand up for a community being attacked and dehumanized. But immigration wasn’t the center of my campaign. The American Dream was. The Dream means you can build a life through your work, regardless of the circumstances you were born into. That Dream has been breaking for decades. Work alone is no longer enough to keep up with costs, so people have stopped believing in a better future. That loss of faith, and the daily struggle just to survive, amplified by stressful and misleading messages on social media and TV from all sides, is at the core of our division and the rise of extremism.

To the incumbent, I mean this sincerely – I wish you success, and I’m ready to help. Representing this district means representing all of it, including the many who didn’t vote for you. Skipping debates and missing votes leaves a large share of your constituents unheard, which is the same thing you criticize Democrats for doing in Sacramento. Whether it’s the imbalance between costs and opportunities, corruption, the rise of AI, a changing climate, there is an infinity of problems to address. Don’t sit on the sidelines. Don’t fall into the temptation of waging battles that only build a political brand for yourself, without solving any real problems... Build a legacy by getting to work. Work for all of us.

To all my supporters – thank you. YOU. ARE. AMAZING.

I’m not going anywhere. Whether through running for office or driving change as an active citizen, I want to be useful to my community and to building a better world.

Thank you,

JJ

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 150506
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Sat Nov 14 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN


Saturday 14 November 1663

Up and to the office, where we sat, and after we had almost done, Sir W. Batten desired to have the room cleared, and there he did acquaint the board how he was obliged to answer to something lately said which did reflect upon the Comptroller and him, and to that purpose told how the bargain for Winter’s timber did not prove so bad as I had reported to the board it would. After he had done I cleared the matter that I did not mention the business as a thing designed by me against them, but was led to it by Sir J. Minnes, and that I said nothing but what I was told by Mayers the surveyor as much as by Deane upon whom they laid all the fault, which I must confess did and do still trouble me, for they report him to be a fellow not fit to be employed, when in my conscience he deserves better than any officer in the yard. I thought it not convenient to vindicate him much now, but time will serve when I will do it, and I am bound to do it. I offered to proceed to examine and prove what I said if they please, but Mr. Coventry most discreetly advised not, it being to no purpose, and that he did believe that what I said did not by my manner of speaking it proceed from any design of reproaching them, and so it ended. But my great trouble is for poor Deane.

At noon home and dined with my wife, and after dinner Will told me if I pleased he was ready to remove his things, and so before my wife I did give him good counsel, and that his going should not abate my kindnesse for him, if he carried himself well, and so bid “God bless him,” and left him to remove his things, the poor lad weeping, but I am apt to think matters will be the better both for him and us.

So to the office and there late busy. In the evening Mr. Moore came to tell me that he had no opportunity of speaking his mind to my Lord yesterday, and so I am resolved to write to him very suddenly.

So after my business done I home, I having staid till 12 o’clock at night almost, making an end of a letter to Sir G. Carteret about the late contract for masts, wherein I have done myself right, and no wrong to Sir W. Batten.

This night I think is the first that I have lain without ever a man in my house besides myself, since I came to keep any. Will being this night gone to his lodging, and by the way I hear to-day that my boy Waynman has behaved himself so with Mr. Davis that they have got him put into a Barbadoes ship to be sent away, and though he sends to me to get a release for him I will not out of love to the boy, for I doubt to keep him here were to bring him to the gallows.

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Satellite Imagery Artifact Turns Out Not to Be Amelia Earhart’s Downed Plane

Ground truthing strikes again. 2020 satellite imagery of a Kiribati atoll that kinda sorta looked like a downed aircraft—sparking speculation that it might be the crash site of Amelia Earhart’s plane—turned out to be just… More

Joanna Stern Reviews the HomeView

This is so goddamn good. Both informative and hilarious.

(She made a fun bonus reel that’s right up my alley too — but watch the main review first.)

 ★ 

Jason Snell’s HomeView Review

Jason Snell:

The hardware is solid and coherent, the screen a pleasure to touch and tilt. In terms of software, though, the HomeView feels like a peculiar amalgam of numerous other Apple products. Its main interface makes it look a bit like an overgrown Apple Watch, complete with customizable “faces” that sometimes resemble actual Apple Watch faces and other times resemble the iPhone’s StandBy mode. Its apps sometimes feel like they’ve escaped from the iPhone or iPad, but at other times they feel more like they’re right off of an Apple TV. And still other “apps” resemble what you might see in your car, since Apple is also using CarPlay to project interfaces from apps running on your iPhone.

Given the fact that this product’s tech stack feels like it was created in a blender, it’s remarkable that it holds together as well as it does — but there are still places where the seams show.

I’ve been testing a review unit HomeView for a bit over a week, but haven’t had much time to devote to it. So in a lot of ways my HomeView experience thus far has been much more like that of a casual user than an expert. I plugged it in, set it up, got my wife and son to do what they needed to do to become recognized fellow-family-member users, and then we all collectively have had a week of “Well, now what?”

What Snell writes above succinctly and sharply describes my take: the hardware is top-notch but the software is like bits of iOS, WatchOS, tvOS, and CarPlay cut up and assembled into a ransom letter. The software lacks cohesion and vision and polish. If you open a web page you can select text, with the iOS touch interface, but there is nothing you can do with a text selection. You can’t copy it or share it. So why can you even make a selection? That’s the least of HomeView’s software problems, but perhaps most emblematic of its “created in a blender” state.

 ★ 

Patrick McGee on Johny Srouji and Nvidia

Patrick McGee (author of Apple in China; my guest on The Talk Show last May), writing on X in response to Semafor’s reporting that Nvidia is “considering” Johny Srouji:

Apple hardware chief Johny Srouji would be an incredible choice to lead @nvidia — and I believe he’d accept it.

He’s hit the ceiling at Apple and won’t ever be CEO; obviously competent; ambitious as hell; has long wanted chip designs to dictate Apple product launches/timelines.

I wrote about this a few days ago, that my money is on Srouji having no interest in the Nvidia job. It’s true that Srouji will almost certainly never be CEO at Apple. But it’s wrong to assume that Srouji would consider CEO of Nvidia to be an upgrade from CHO at Apple. There’s no way Eddy Cue, Craig Federighi, or Greg Joswiak would leave Apple to be CEO at another company. Most of Apple’s leadership genuinely bleeds six colors. There’s a certain approach to product that drives them, motivates them, and literally only Apple does that type of work. Tim Cook surely turned down numerous CEO offers to leave Apple while he served as COO under Steve Jobs, and he’s always been clear that he hoped Jobs would stay a few steps ahead of his cancer and could remain at Apple until, well, probably around now. (Jobs would be 71.)

I’ve never met Srouji and don’t have a read on him like I do other leaders at Apple. But I do have a read on Ternus and Cook. I’ll stick with my bet from earlier in the week:

Another scenario is that Srouji meant what he said, loves his job at Apple, and truly is John Ternus’s trusted and trustworthy hardware lieutenant. In this case, Nvidia’s board leaking that they’re considering Srouji to replace Huang is like someone in hell saying they’re considering ordering some ice water.

Aside from Srouji’s loyalty to Apple (and to the Apple Silicon chip architecture that’s been his life’s work), there’s also the question of whether he’d take the gig at Nvidia in particular, even if he is open to leaving Apple. Jensen Huang has left the company with a $4 trillion market cap, yes, but it was $5 trillion just a week ago. It now seems 20 percent of Nvidia’s sales in the AI era have been in violation of U.S. national security export controls to China. The company has no internal leadership hierarchy. And Huang placed bets that have leveraged the company’s future on OpenAI and the overall data center mania not being a bubble. Srouji has been a senior leader at the one tech company that conspicuously avoided those bets entirely.

 ★ 

Microsoft Says Cloud Outage Was ‘Not Related to Cyber or AI / Agents’

Microsoft, yesterday, in a statement on X:

This was a technical issue not related to cyber or AI / agents. The incident was introduced by an issue during an earlier network capacity upgrade that surfaced following a recent network change. We have addressed the underlying issue and continue to restore service to remaining customers and regions.

 ★ 

What’s Your Map?

What’s Your Map? is a podcast hosted by Jerry Brotton (previously) and produced by Oculi Mundi (previously). It’s a biweekly affair in which Brotton “invites a guest to share a map close to their heart—and… More

Back To the Electoral College, And Why Getting Rid of It Is a Big Mistake

As the dust settled on the 2026 midterm elections, a number of stories were published noting that states now fully under Democratic control include enough electoral votes to make the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact a reality. To review, this is the plan, devised in the aftermath of 2000 presidential election, that would allow an end-run around the Electoral College. A sufficient number of states agree to award their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote regardless of how their own voters voted in that particular state. Once a sufficient number of states agree, it’s done. The effect of the Electoral College disappears even as its architecture remains.

Now this is actually within reach because of Democratic trifectas in a handful of states. When I heard this subject come up again, my reaction was both negative and baffled. Given what we have seen in the last decade, who could ever have confidence that a state would honor this process when push came to shove? We’ve seen now how little is truly binding. This is especially the case when you’re expecting courts not to interfere in a case where the laws being enforced really are genuinely non-constitutional if not quite anti-constitutional. If JD Vance wins Wisconsin in 2032 but Wisconsin says it has to award its electoral votes to Pete Buttigieg, some version of this Supreme Court is going to uphold that law? Please.

For me this settles the matter. I would never trust such an expedient to work. Meanwhile, this piece in Vox notes how one of the originators of the whole concept, Yale Law Professor Akhil Amar, notes that the whole system could lead to a massive constitutional crisis because states might disagree about who actually won the popular vote since there’s really no federal arbitrator of that. He notes various other ways the system could implode because of a law of rule-setting and overseeing entity.

That may seem a little silly. Unless the whole country comes down to a lead of a few hundred votes, how is there going to be a dispute about the popular vote? Read the Vox article. It explains how there are a number of scenarios where it can spin out of control very quickly. But I want to focus on the issue that is implicit in Amar’s argument and his latter-day critiques of his own idea, but don’t get discussed in the Vox piece.

Since early 2025 I’ve been arguing that the sheet anchor of any resistance to Donald Trump is the fact that the states are subordinate but distinct sovereignties whose executive power is untethered to federal executive power. Critically, the Constitution unambiguously assigns the administration of elections to the states under federal law. Everything that has happened over the last 20 months has confirmed that verdict. Donald Trump wanted to subvert the electoral process but he mostly couldn’t because of that central feature of the constitutional architecture. That obstacle mostly wasn’t the work of judges, who we’ve learned are the thinnest of reeds to rely on. It’s the architect itself. Across so much of the federal government the president holds the machinery of government. He can be restrained in that power by a resolved Congress or by judges. But with both the Congress and the judiciary largely subservient we’ve learned a constitutional version of the old adage that possession is 9/10ths of the law.

Can the president just fire independent agency heads or abolish whole departments without law or warrant? Who’s going to stop him? He’s the president and the executive branch is run by the president. But a president no matter how powerful can never fire a governor or a mayor or even a cop on the beat. He also can’t issue them orders. It’s a separate sovereignty. It’s not a matter of a judge’s say-so. There are simply no tendons or muscles or connective tissue connecting the flow-chart of the federal government to those of the states. That proved critical to the integrity of the 2026 election.

Which brings us back to Amar’s points about the weakness of the whole National Popular Vote Interstate Compact: the lack of any governing or oversight body to determine basic things like who actually won the popular vote. Read through Amar’s points and it’s clear that making the national popular vote work — either by abolishing the Electoral College by amendment or through the Compact — would require a significant federalization of elections. Given the experience of the last decade and especially the last two years, that seems like an unquestionably bad idea. Imagine how the last two years might have played out had national — inevitably executive branch — agencies held real governing power over the conduct of elections. Everything plays out very, very differently.

The fact that some peoples’ votes count more than others in presidential elections, the fact that the candidate who gets fewer votes can win — these things all remain national and constitutional embarrassments. But we’ve seen in practice that state administration of elections is simply too core an obstacle to autocratic takeovers to give up so lightly. When civic democracy itself is on the chopping block you’ve got to pick your battles, make some hard choices.

Finding the Signal in the Noise of NVIDIA-Gate

Earlier this evening, I was exchanging notes with TPM Reader NH and I told him this: “I’ve had a very hard time today trying to put all of this into a coherent whole. Part of me thinks you’ve got a bunch of highly questionable stuff happening, at least semi-corrupt, very questionable behavior on NVIDIA’s part vis a vis China, some intentional slow-rolling from Commerce for very questionable reasons. And a lot of it is at least loosely known to a lot of people. Then the Times publicly confirms the relationship and U.S. assumption that Alice Huang is a spy. And then everyone runs for cover — even though a lot of the stuff surrounding that relationship was at least semi-known. I don’t know if this is a plausible way to look at it. But in a way I’m not sure she even needs to exist for a lot of this stuff to happen?”

This evening the Post published this article. You should read it. But the gist is that Marco Rubio and other China hawks in and out of the administration have been unhappy with what NVIDIA has been doing and Huang’s influence over key administration players who were allowing it to happen. Rubio, by whatever level of indirection, was able to get the story of the Alice Huang relationship into the Times. And that, in a matter of days, brought the walls crashing in on Jensen Huang. And yet quite a lot of this was known. To Trump, Rubio and other top administration officials it was apparently known in its entirety.

As I said above, it’s not clear to me that Alice Huang even needs to exist for a lot of this to happen. She seems more like a cog in the subversion of national interests to commercial interests than a well-placed spy pulling one over on other key players. Maybe more of an intermediary between China and Jensen Huang.

Reading List 11/14/2026

The Shepherd’s Dream from “Paradise Lost,” by Henry Fuseli, via WikiArt.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at a Brooklyn building collapse, BAAJA’s odds of passing, reusing old memory in new phones, a nationwide aircraft ground stop, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

Housing and Cities

A 3 story building in New York partially collapsed into an adjacent construction site that was being excavated, killing 8 people and injuring 18. Good reminder that for as burdensome as various building regulations can sometimes be (particularly in New York, with its ubiquitous sidewalk sheds), they don’t exist for no reason. [Construction Dive]

On the other hand, that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t evaluate code requirements to see if the benefits they bring are worth the cost. An article in the Washington Post argues that many requirements to upgrade electrical panels for higher load devices are often unnecessary. “Outdated industry practices and in some places outdated electrical codes are regularly resulting in the recommendation that people need to upgrade their electrical panels if they want to add appliances such as induction stoves, heat pumps and electric-vehicle chargers. The expense — at a median of $3,500, and triple or quadruple that in some settings — is deterring some energy-efficient upgrades and making the projects far more costly for those who proceed. But some researchers say panel upgrades are almost always unnecessary. One report this year found that 98 percent of homes with 100-ampere panels, the smallest common size, have room to add popular electronic devices.” [Washington Post]

The US now has over 1500 mass timber buildings, up from fewer than 100 a decade ago. [The Real Deal]

The current probability of permitting reform bill BAAJA becoming law is little over 50% on Kalshi. [Kalshi]

A Houthi missile hit Saudi state oil company Aramco’s skyscraper in Riyadh. [X]

A new Nicholas Bagley paper on the cost of federal permitting, arguing that the real costs of things like NEPA is the huge amount of effort agencies put in to try and make things “litigation proof”. “The evidence does suggest, however, that the bulk of the costs of the federal permitting regime stem from the defensive measures agencies and developers take to guard against the risk of a bad outcome in court. That insight allows for a rough evaluation of the likely effects of popular permitting reform ideas. Some—including popular ones like time limits and statutes of limitations—are unlikely to accomplish much. Only those reforms that change the incentives created by the risk of judicial review will meaningfully move the needle.” [Nicholas Bagley]

A progress report from the Center for Land Economics, which advocates for land value taxes to make more efficient use of urban land. ”Three states passed laws enabling land value taxes in some form: Kentucky, Virginia and New York. In each of them we’re now helping cities work out how to put them into practice. Five more states and DC considered similar bills. This is the most legislative momentum the movement has seen in decades…” [Land Economics]

Read more

Links 11/14/26

Links for you. Science:

Doctors in Ukraine Try Treating Infections Like Biological Warfare Attacks
A Man Had Brain Surgery. Now He Sees His Cat’s Eyes on People’s Faces—and Vice Versa
Why the simple flu shot could be a surprise weapon against cancer
What I Learned at a Drunk-Math Party
Low-income parents can’t afford to take chances with nutritious food their picky eaters might reject
The U.S. is staring down the barrel of a measles crisis, with no end in sight
‘A complete repudiation’: public health won big in US midterm elections

Other:

Forget the Leadership Fights—Everything Comes Back to the Filibuster
What the Logan Circle Shooter Told Me. In a series of interviews late last year, Matt Lambert obsessed about his condo’s problems — and the man he killed.
Some thoughts on the 2026 midterm from TPM Reader TS (Theda Skocpol)
Janeese Lewis George Promised Change. Will the Job Change Her?
Centrism Fail: Osborn/Bengs/Bodnar Edition
Firm Linked to Trump’s Sons Got Nearly $40 Million in Federal Contracts to Screen for Ebola and Other Diseases
Alito warns Congress can ‘turn off the lights’ at Supreme Court
The Scandal Is Bigger Than Jensen Huang
Chris Van Hollen says he will challenge Chuck Schumer for Senate majority leader
Sex Crimes, Lies, War, Money: MAGA’s 2026 ‘Self-Immolation’ Keeps Getting Worse
Cracks emerge in Trump’s Reflecting Pool – hours after he stood in front and told Americans about his great renovation
Horny Nvidia CEO No Longer CEO, Possibly Still Horny
The Democratic Leadership Fights Are Missing Something
The Real Reason Chris Van Hollen’s Challenge to Schumer Is a Big Deal
Alice Huang-Linked Firm Procured Banned Nvidia Chips in China
Why Democrats Can’t Quit the Spam
At the Tomb, Hegseth broke the silence. A sentinel spoke up for the dead.
David Sacks Speaks!
Sarah McBride didn’t give them the fight they wanted. She won anyway
Trump proposed a ‘secret weapon’ to police colleges. It will soon become reality
Leading Chabad Rabbi Legitimizes Killing Jewish Politicians Cooperating With Arab Parties
The Worst Thing Democrats Could Do Right Now
Team Van Hollen
A 124-Year-Old Voting Ban Designed to Silence Black Virginians Is Finally Gone
Baghdad’s first Jewish museum draws crowds to rediscover Iraq’s Jewish past
Sen. Baldwin proposes lowering Medicare eligibility age to 50
Right-wing influencer retracts fraud allegations against Seattle grocery
Lutnick should have prevented the diversion of sensitive Nvidia AI chips to China, critics charge
“Car brain” contributed to House failure to impeach Hegseth
The D.C. spaces that feature local artists

Upcoming Speaking Engagements

This is a current list of where and when I am scheduled to speak:

  • I’m speaking at the Catalyst Summit in Brampton, Ontario, Canada, on Wednesday, November 18, 2026.
  • I’m speaking at QT Qonference 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, on Thursday, November 19, 2026.

The list is maintained on this page.

Friday Squid Blogging: Pacific Flying Squid Populations Dropping in Korean Waters

Climate change is the issue.

As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven’t covered.

Blog moderation policy.

Saturday assorted links

1. Madrid vs. Catalonia.

2. Stephen Kovacevich, RIP (NYT).  Brahms and the Diabellis stand among his towering pianistic achievements.  He was one of my favorite pianists.

3. Queen at Sea is an excellent movie, though hard to watch due to the dementia theme.  Impossible to review without spoilers.

4. Claude revises the notebooks of Gödel.

5. FT Lunch with Jean Drèze.

6. The loneliness crisis for Sri Lankan elephants.

7. Joshua Saxe and Dwarkesh on RSI.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Links 11/13/26

Links for you. Science:

Incredible Coral 100 Buses Long Discovered in The Indian Ocean, Could Be One of The World’s Largest
Power Grids on 5 Continents Pulse Every 60 Seconds. Scientists Think They Finally Know Why.
The American Brain Drain Claims Another Scientist
Democrats Plan Investigation Into Climate and Science Cuts Under Trump
US poised to lose measles elimination status—what does that mean?
One dead in E. coli outbreak linked to California pumpkin farm
Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed on restoring trust in science, the state of public health, and RFK Jr. (good, except I don’t think “Too often the way that scientists speak is about speaking to other scientists to make themselves sound smarter rather than speaking to the public, to help the public feel as smart as they really are” is a correct explanation for much of the distrust)

Other:

Never Let Trump’s Elite Enablers Forget What They’ve Done. Universities, scientists, law firms, and many other powerful institutions are about to start pretending they never rolled over for the president. But we know better.
The Clean House Compact: Four Anti-Corruption Reforms House Democrats Can Adopt on Day One
Scott Colom Wins Mississippi US Senate Race, Will Be State’s First Black Senator in 146 Years
Thanks to American oligarchy, Jensen Huang’s midlife crisis is a problem for all of us
New House Minority Leader Still Faces Old Questions On Ohio State Sexual Abuse
Why Black Voters Abandoned Trump: A shift toward the Republican Party didn’t survive contact with the president’s agenda.
Scott Colom Is Mississippi’s First Black Senator in 150 Years
Donald Trump Jr. Defends Russell Brand After Rape Conviction, Claiming Bias, as Police Praise Witnesses’ ‘Bravery’
The Evangelical Vote Will Return in 2028. Those writing obituaries for Christian nationalism need to hold off. (Yes, indeed)
How the Bluenami Swept Away the Christian Right’s Texas Stronghold
D.C. Council Moves to Lower Bills by Limiting Guaranteed Profits for Utilities
Why Did U.S. Marshals Kill Julian Bailey? Nine months after the 43-year-old husband and father was shot nine times by federal officers in Northeast D.C., his family is still searching for answers.
D.C. Council Members Vote Down Self-Driving Cars, for Now
Trump wants an immigration deal. He could start with caregivers.
Whistleblowers Tell Democrats the Trump Administration is Destroying Documents
As Cedar Hill Hospital flounders, residents ask why D.C. is still struggling to deliver healthcare in Southeast
Federal Judge Dismisses a DOJ Lawsuit Challenging Montgomery County’s Gun Ban
An American Furniture Maker Tried to Bring Jobs Back Home. It Didn’t Work.
Mississippi didn’t flip. Mississippians flipped it.
A Tool Built by Election Deniers Said These Voters Were Dead. We Found Them Alive.
The Blue Tsunami Was Built on ‘Corruption’: Senate Majority PAC started mapping out a new strategy almost two years ago. It paid off massively in the midterms.
What the legal battle over ticket resales could mean for D.C. concertgoers
Mr. PRESIDENT, TEAR DOWN THIS BALLROOM
Maryland Lawmakers Rebuke High School Valedictorian’s ICE Detention
The Amigos Park saga in Mount Pleasant is reaching its conclusion. Pretty much no one is happy with the results.
House Democrats Blame Traffic for Missing Key Hegseth Impeachment Vote
The grifters are tearing each other apart
The Week They Stopped Getting Away With It. First came the midterms. Now comes the meltdown.
The Blob
Florida Residents Lose It After DEI Law Backfires and Takes Their Beloved St. Patrick’s Day Parade Down With It

Starship flight 15 powers to orbit—setting up a possible catch on Saturday

STARBASE, Texas—Starship lifted off right on schedule Friday from South Texas, making its 15th test flight in more than three years.

The largely successful launch took place in the early evening; as the massive rocket rose into the atmosphere, the Sun sank toward the western horizon. Conditions were ideal for the launch, with the atmospheric winds so calm the rocket’s white plume did not dissipate for many minutes. The weather in South Texas is not always comfortable; summers are long and hot. Friday evening was perfect at Starbase.

The first stage ascended toward space flawlessly, releasing the upper stage above the Gulf of Mexico. From there, the Starship upper stage ignited its Raptor engines and powered its way into a nominal orbit. This was the second time SpaceX has flown Starship into low-Earth orbit.

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Privatize Air Traffic Control, Redux

Yesterday the FAA grounded every domestic departure in the United States for more than four hours. Such groundings appear to be happening more often. The last nationwide grounding was in 2023, and regional ones have hit Newark, Dallas, and the entire Northeast in the past two years.

My post from October of 2025 (below) was prompted by regional groundings and delays caused by labor problems. Air traffic control was then (and still is today) far understaffed, and then, absurdly, the government shutdown hit the controllers we had, thus further stressing the system. According to Transportation Secretary Duffy the cause of yesterday’s grounding wasn’t labor but capital: aging TDM telecom circuits overloaded with data.

The deeper cause is the same in both cases: poor incentives. Airlines bear the costs when the system fails and have almost no say in how it is run. By the way, some will crow that yesterday’s failure may have been due to a private contractor. That may well be true–Pro tip: Do not update system software on a Friday at 3pm–but it is beside the point. Contracting out may have some advantages, especially if there is competition, but it is not the same as privatization. The argument for privatization of air traffic control services is to give responsibility for the system to the people who pay when it fails. Align incentives.

My 2025 post. No indent.

Yesterday, the FAA grounded flights at Reagan (DCA) because there weren’t enough air traffic controllers. By mid‑afternoon, thousands of flights were delayed nationwide. The same thing is happening at major airports across the country.

The proximate cause is that the FAA is short about ~3,500 controllers, forcing the rest to work mandatory overtime, six days a week, and now, during the shutdown, sometimes without pay! The more fundamental problem is that we have a poorly incentivized system. It’s absurd that a mission‑critical service is financed by annual appropriations subject to political failure. We need to remove the politics.

Canada fixed this in 1996 by spinning off air navigation services to NAV CANADA, a private, non‑profit utility funded by user fees, not taxes. Safety regulation stayed with the government; operations moved to a professionally governed, bond‑financed utility with multi‑year budgets. NAV Canada has been instrumental in moving Canada to more accurate and safer satellite-based navigation, rather than relying on ground-based radar as in the US.

NAV CANADA – in conjunction with the United Kingdom’s NATS – was the first in the world to deploy space-based ADS-B, by implementing it in 2019 over the North Atlantic, the world’s busiest oceanic airspace.

NAV CANADA was also the first air navigation service provider worldwide to implement space-based ADS-B in its domestic airspace.

Meanwhile, America’s NextGen has delivered a fraction of promised benefits, years late and over budget. As the Office of Inspector General reports:

Lengthy delays and cost growth have been a recurring feature of FAA’s modernization efforts through the course of NextGen’s over 20-year lifespan. FAA faced significant challenges throughout NextGen’s development and implementation phases that resulted in delaying or reducing benefits and delivering fewer capabilities than expected. While NextGen programs and capabilities have delivered some benefits in the form of more efficient air traffic management and reduced flight delays and airline operating costs, as of December 2024, FAA had achieved only about 16 percent of NextGen’s total expected benefits.

Airlines bleed money when planes idle, gates clog, and crews time out. The airlines have every reason to demand reliability, capacity, and modernization—Congress does not. Thus, fund air traffic control with user fees paid by those who depend on performance. Put the airline executives on the board of the non-profit, as in Canada. Give them the power to tax themselves to benefit themselves.

Align power with incentives and performance will follow.

The post Privatize Air Traffic Control, Redux appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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R.I.P. Salon

November 13, 2026

Salon.com, the San Francisco-based politics and culture magazine, shut down last week after 31 years of operation.

I mention this because without Salon.com there would be no Ask the Pilot. If not for the good graces of an editor there named Andrew Leonard, this enterprise wouldn’t exist and you’d never have heard of me.

It was the autumn of 2001, shortly after the terror attacks, and I’d just been laid off from my job. I was equal parts in need of spending money and frustrated by the security chaos at airports. I decided to give freelance writing a try. I put a piece together complaining about the irrationality of our emerging security protocols — a topic I’d return to many times in the years that followed. I shopped it around, cold-calling editors and emailing drafts.

I had no formal training in writing or journalism, though it had always been something of a minor hobby. In the 80s I self-published a punk rock fanzine. Later I wrote a handful of short music reviews for the Boston Globe, and one or two travel-related pieces for the Utne Reader, where a friend of mine was an editor. None of it was especially good.

Nonetheless, Leonard liked the story, and, if I remember right, offered me the princely sum of $150 to run it.

Foot in the door, as they say. That first article became a second, then a third, and so on. In June of 2002, Leonard invited me to contribute a regular column, which he dubbed “Ask the Pilot.” I always hated the name, but the column got traction and it stuck.

Over the ensuing decade, Salon would publish more than four-hundred of my articles. Considering the setting — a magazine specializing in lefty politics, arts and culture — such success was remarkable. I guess what gave me an edge, at least at the beginning, was my unique perspective and a willingness to shoot my mouth off. Here was a commercial pilot, of all people, sharing provocative, no-bullshit opinions about air travel at a time when everyone was thinking about it.

More importantly, as things went on, my aim was to humanize flying. Rather than bog down in technical discussions, I’d speak to the fuller drama of air travel, exploring the ways in which it intersects with culture, history, or even art. This, more than anything, is why Ask the Pilot found a home at Salon (or so I like to think).

At first the column appeared weekly, usually on Fridays. When my day job obligations made managing a deadline too onerous, we changed to a semi-weekly format. Somewhere in there, Leonard handed me off to an editor named Ruth Henrich, under whose guidance I wrote until 2012, when the feature was finally retired.

Two books, including Cockpit Confidential (2013), which briefly became a New York Times bestseller, were compiled and adapted from the Salon archives.

The decision to kill Ask the Pilot was Salon’s, but I was neither surprised nor disappointed when the end came. It had run its course, and I no longer had the time, or the discipline, to keep the gig going.

As I’m sure Leonard or Henrich will remind you, my relationship with their editorial staff could be strained. Whether from laziness or inexperience, I was notorious for last-minute changes and post-publication revisions. I’m not sure I ever apologized for that.

One afternoon, while the column was still running, I was was on a layover in San Francisco. Salon’s offices were just a short distance from my hotel. I’d never visited. So I walked over, thinking I’d go inside and say hello. But when I got there, I couldn’t do it. I stood outside for a minute, then turned around and walked back to the Hyatt. I’m not sure why.

Ask the Pilot lives on, of course, having migrated to the site on which you’re reading this post. The vibe here is looser and more casual than it was at Salon. And for now I still enjoy it.

(My only gripe is that I don’t make a dime. Salon, at least, paid me grocery money. Here I earn nothing. Google banned me from its advertising platforms for reasons they wouldn’t disclose, and installing a paywall would likely spell disaster. So, while it lasts, it’s a labor of love. I hate making a charity pitch, but you’re free to click that “Buy Me a Coffee” link over on the left side of the page.)

If you’re a reader from the old days, thanks for sticking with me.

 

The post R.I.P. Salon appeared first on AskThePilot.com.

datasette-cluster-map 0.19

Release: datasette-cluster-map 0.19

One of the oldest Datasette plugins, and still one of my favorites. It now works with Datasette 1.0a42, and depends on the new datasette-leaflet to ensure OpenStreetMap tiles are requested with a referrer header.

Here's a map of power plants owned by California's PG&E, also demonstrating Datasette's recently redesigned facets:

Screenshot of a faceted map interface. Three facet panels at the top: "country_long 1" with United States of America 81 selected; "owner 1" with Pacific Gas & Electric Co. 81 selected; "primary_fuel 5" listing Hydro 63, Solar 10, Gas 5, Storage 2, Nuclear 1. Each primary_fuel row has a pale blue horizontal bar behind its label, sized in proportion to its count: Hydro's bar fills most of the row width, Solar's is a short sliver, Gas's is shorter still, and Storage and Nuclear have only a thin strip at the left edge. Below is a Leaflet map with + and − zoom controls showing California and Nevada, with marker clusters across northern and central California: 9 near Redding, 21 near Chico, 2 to the west of Chico, 13 northeast of Sacramento, 7 east of Stockton, 6 at Oakland, 10 at Fresno, 9 west of Visalia, 2 north of Bakersfield, plus two individual blue pin markers on the coast, one in the far north and one north of Santa Maria. Attribution: Leaflet | © OpenStreetMap contributors

Tags: datasette, geospatial, openstreetmap

datasette-leaflet 0.3

Release: datasette-leaflet 0.3

OpenStreetMap have a very reasonable policy that hits to their hosted tile server should send a referrer header. Datasette table pages used the Referrer-Policy: no-referrer HTTP header, causing plugins that loaded tiles from OpenStreetMap to violate that policy.

datasette-leaflet is the plugin that loads a bundled Leaflet so other Datasette plugins can depend on it. It now sets the referrer policy on the tile requests themselves to strict-origin-when-cross-origin, passing the host but not the full path to the page.

Tags: leaflet, datasette, openstreetmap

I’m feeling more optimistic about American politics

“Partisanship is a helluva drug,” as they say. When your preferred party is in power, the sun seems to shine a little brighter, the birds sing a little more sweetly, and there’s a spring in your step as you walk past the homeless encampments and sterile single-family-home-only neighborhoods of your American city. Foreigners from countries where politics is less contentious, like Japan, will never know this joy.

Anyway, this natural partisan sentiment makes it very hard for me to write about developments in American politics. I would like to give you some analysis that’s more informative than “Yay, Democrats won an election!”. I do consider myself a Democrat, after all (even though I’m registered as an Independent). There has never been a point in my entire life when I’d have told you that the Republican presidential candidate was a better pick than the Democrat (though 2012 was fairly close). I regularly bemoan the state of the Democratic Party, but somehow the Republicans always find some way to be Even Worse.

This has been the unfortunate reality for most people in America for years now. Disgust and dissatisfaction with both parties have grown, as both have become more extremist. But there was little they could do except keep voting for the lesser of two evils, while tuning out political news and expressing anger at the whole system. It got so bad that in my New Year’s essay, I even entertained the notion that liberal democracy itself had suffered a generational failure:

To be honest, I still entertain that notion. Reading that essay again, there’s not much I would change. But on the margin, recent events have made me feel more optimistic about where American politics is going.

A lot of this is downstream of the midterm elections. Trump has turned the Republican Party into something truly awful, and it’s refreshing to see America punish the GOP for going along with that transformation:

But my optimism isn’t just about the fact that Democrats won — it’s also about how they won, and what they seem likely to do with their victory. Here I’ve been pleasantly surprised so far. And there are also some scattered signs that our leaders are starting to take our substantive policy challenges more seriously, instead of just relying on partisanship and culture wars. Basically, I see three broad positive trends:

  1. The Democrats are not becoming extremist at the rate I had feared.

  2. There is some real bipartisan movement on good policymaking at the federal level.

  3. The nation is waking up to the problem of corruption, and holding the perpetrators to account.

Liberals, not leftists, are leading the anti-Trump charge

Over the past few years, I’ve watched the emergence of a leftist faction within the Democratic Party, which I’ve likened to MAGA on the right. This faction had its roots in the Bernie insurgency of 2016-2020, but it has grown beyond that. The Palestine movement both invigorated the leftists and radicalized them, shifting the locus of power in left-of-center activism away from Black activists, identitarian movements, and anti-capitalism, and toward explicitly anti-American “decolonial” ideas.

As recently as this summer, I believed that a Democratic victory in the midterms would be led by this hard-left vanguard:

Here’s what I wrote:

Democrats have spent their political capital moving to the left…[They are selecting] candidates who are so far to the left that they end up frightening and/or offending many voters, and then basically daring people to keep voting for the Republicans…

When DSA-type candidates were just winning in deep blue cities, it was possible to think that they would remain a small, limited faction within the party. But Francesca Hong is going to be the Democratic nominee in a statewide race. So is Abdul El-Sayed, who, while not a member of the DSA, is closely aligned with them (especially on Israel, which he focuses on a lot)…This, increasingly, is who the Democrats are now.

Well, happily, I was wrong about this. Francesca Hong was actually defeated in the Democratic primary race just a few days later in a stunning upset, showing that even partisan Democrats aren’t sold on the DSA faction.

Even more importantly, the hard left didn’t end up leading the anti-Trump charge in the midterms, as I had expected. Despite the blue wave, most of the high-profile DSA-faction candidates performed significantly worse than their normie Democrat counterparts. Jeff Maurer has great data on this:

I Might Be Wrong
How Leftists and Moderates Did in the Midterms
Three months ago, I wrote a post “setting up the goal posts” to measure how individual candidates did in the midterms. I did that for two reasons: First, I did it to be a dick. I feel that liberals can be too polite, and we bite our tongues in response to the hate and idiocy that DSA types are trying to smuggle into the mainstream — I see a role for a t…
Read more

And the same voters who powered the big Democratic victories also endorsed a lot of centrist policies at the ballot box. Here’s the Washington Post:

Voters in North Carolina elected a Democratic senator…giving former governor Roy Cooper an overwhelming win. At the same time, they approved three [Republican] measures…The first would add a constitutional requirement for a levy limit on property taxes…The second would cap the state income tax at 3.5 percent…The third would require photo ID for voting…

In Wisconsin, Democrat David Crowley won the gubernatorial election…Those same voters approved an initiative…to ban affirmative action in state institutions…Iowa voters elected Democrats as governor and senator while amending their constitution to make it substantially harder to raise state income taxes…Ohio….went blue for Senate and governor. At the same time, two-thirds of voters backed an amendment to require photo ID for voting…

Moderates and independents drove Democratic gains in all these places.

Voters in several blue and purple states also approved measures to restrict women’s sports teams by biological sex.

There’s also a general indefinable “vibe shift” in the air. Anecdotally, people I talk to are less ashamed to voice full-throated support for the kind of liberalism that Barack Obama typified in the early 2010s. Meanwhile, liberal influencers online are beginning to push back more strongly on leftist shouters.

And in Congress, the sheer scale of the Democrats’ victory means that the DSA faction will be effectively disempowered. Because marginal victories tend to be won by moderates in purple states, the leadership in both the House and the Senate is likely to be held by moderates like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer. This is driving the DSA factionalist types apoplectic with rage:

Note that the knives are already coming out for Jon Ossoff, whose potential as a 2028 presidential contender surged after his massive midterm victory. But who can leftists run against Ossoff? Enthusiasm around AOC has dimmed, and there’s no obvious replacement.

If they fail to find a candidate for 2028, and if Democrats take back the White House with a normie liberal, the leftist faction faces the real possibility that the window of America’s decade of unrest will limp to a close without them. That would, of course, be good for the nation.

Smart policy is starting to win (and “the groups” are starting to lose)

Even moderate politicians, of course, often support unworkable or inadvisable policies. On the Democratic side, the worst problems are anti-development policies at the state and local level. “Progressive” policies have made it prohibitively difficult and/or expensive to build housing, roads, trains, power stations, and transmission lines across much of the country, freezing our built environment in the 1970s. I’ve been loudly complaining about this for years now:

This was a big part of my pessimism about politics. What’s the use of kicking out the Republicans, if the Democrats are just going to decide that “open space” and historic gas stations are more important than giving the middle class a place to live and power for their homes?

Now there are signs that at long last, America’s leaders recognize this problem and are taking action to fix it.

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


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ABNT20 KNHC 150505
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

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Forecaster Beven


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


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ABPZ20 KNHC 150506
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

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Forecaster Beven


Elon Still Loves Vladimir

Marketing note: I have a new ebook, Navigating the Chaos: Chronicles of Economic and Political Madness, which uses material from this Substack to construct a thematic narrative of the past two years and the issues that Democrats must now address to build an enduring progressive movement. Available from Amazon, Kobo, Bookshop, and Nook.

Taking today off, mostly. But amid the furor over Jensen Huang, people may not have noticed that another tech broligarch is betraying national security in another way as we speak. According to Ukraine, Elon Musk has once again disrupted the nation’s military Starlink service. Large numbers of Ukrainians will die as a result.

One might have thought that Musk would be cautious about abusing his power after the midterms. One speculation is that he may believe that he can get away with it because everyone is focused on Operation Honeypot. Another is that he’s aware that the war is tilting in Ukraine’s favor, with Russian casualties spiking and Ukrainian counterattacks gaining momentum. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that Putin, or Trump officials who support Putin, reached out to Musk to ask for help.

Whatever the specifics behind the timing, the key point is that, as I said the other day, Musk is part of a small but powerful clique that is actively hostile to American values and to any government that shares our values, and actively favors tyranny. As I said,

Trump, Elon Musk, and many others on the hard right look at Putinism — authoritarian rule under which critics have a tendency to fall out of high windows, male supremacy, social illiberalism, crony capitalism for oligarchs with the right connections — and see it as an exemplar of what they want from a society.

And Musk is using his control of Starlink to aid Putin’s war on a Western-allied democracy.

No private individual — and certainly not someone like Musk — should have that power. Starlink must be nationalized.

Can AI Compose a Convincing Beethoven Sonata?

Below is my latest culture briefing. I’m making this available to everyone—so no paywall.

Enjoy!


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AI tried to imitate Beethoven this week, and got almost one million views on social media in just three days. But the results were more pathetic than Pathétique.

For a start, the so-called sonata wasn’t really a sonata, lacking any thematic development. But that was the least of the problems with this mish-mash of clumsy harmonies, dead-end phrases, ridiculous anachronisms, and pompous gestures.

When I heard the major scale in bar 18, I actually started laughing. But there’s no indication that this effort was intended as a joke.

I was reminded of the Beethoven bio that tells how he continued to compose after his death. Hey, even zombies should be able to do better than this.

Maybe it’s just a typo

The New York Times now worries that “culture feels so monotonous.” My response is that the Times might want to consider its own policies—such as downsizing cultural coverage, eliminating reviews of live music, and serving up shallow overviews of timeless art in five-minute soundbites.

But the Times does have some interesting evidence to share. They interviewed Substacker Lauren Leek, who recently published some horrifying charts on cultural flattening.

The graph below shows what happens when an algorithm measures people’s choices among forty options, and then shows them more of what they like. Then it repeats the process, over and over—the same way real algorithms do.

The result is a dramatic shrinkage in the range of offerings. Soon there are no viable alternatives, just a boring monoculture.

Source: Lauren Leek

Here’s her analysis of song lyrics—which draws on a database of four thousand hit tracks released over a 65-year period. During this time, lyrics relied increasingly on a smaller vocabulary, and more repeated lines.

Dumbing down fed on itself.

Source: Lauren Leek

Leek blames streaming. “Streaming has created very concrete incentives,” she told the Times. “Pay starts after 30 seconds. A repeated hook in a song is the rational response.”

But too much rationality is death to creativity.


On the other hand, musicians are lucky. It could worse—they could be authors.


Or consider the case of writer Rachel Kadish.


Another media outlet died last week. This time the victim was Salon—once an influential online periodical. But they did try one last Hail Mary pass before disappearing.


Here’s a new scam.

Journalists lose (or leave) their jobs, but media outlets continue to use their names—attaching them as bylines to AI-generated articles. The publishers are brazenly adding bios and even fabricated author photos.

“That is my name associated with my former publication,” journalist Ken Downey Jr complained. “That is a bio that looks pretty accurate about myself, but that is not my picture….I haven’t been associated with the company in almost a full seven years.”

If AI really is so great, why are they hiding it? I can only conclude that:

  1. Media outlets are ashamed of using AI, otherwise they would admit it—or even brag about it;

  2. Readers obviously prefer human writers, or publishers wouldn’t go through this charade; and

  3. The whole system is broken, built on deception and manipulation—unfair to everyone, especially the writers whose names are exploited in this way.



Back in April, I predicted a resurgence in movie theater attendance (but for the worst possible reason)—and we now know that 2026 will almost certainly show double-digit growth in box office receipts. We are returning to levels not seen since COVID.

But here’s a surprise. The biggest boost in attendance is coming from teens and young adults. They now make up 40% of the audience, and many of them are turning to classic films from the past.

The New York Times offered a profile of one young moviegoer:

Growing up, Gregory Santana, a Bronx resident who works in the automotive industry, sometimes went to the movies with his family — superhero franchises, the usual stuff. But at 26, he has moved beyond the multiplex to the land of cinephiles. He’s now an avid theatergoer who will spend a Friday night rewatching Francis Ford Coppola classics.

“Letterboxd pushed me in a direction to go to older movies,” he explained one evening as he caught a double feature of The Godfather and the 1974 thriller The Conversation at Film Forum, the Manhattan independent theater. The night was not over, he added. “After this, me and my friends are going to see ‘The Departed,” which was released when he was in elementary school.


The dominance of older offerings is happening in every idiom. I’ve written about the trend in music, but now the same thing is happening with TV shows.

The most popular TV series right now, according to culture analytics guru Daniel Parris, is a sitcom from 2007—and it’s “surpassing the 2026 viewership of Stranger Things, The Pitt, The Bear, and just about every other buzzy program you can think of.”

He’s referring to The Big Bang Theory, which stopped airing new episodes back in 2019. But that’s not the only old show that’s thriving right now—Parris also points to the ongoing popularity of The Office, Monk, and Suits.

What an odd turnabout. Not long ago, we were living in a golden age for TV, with exciting new shows drawing huge audiences. But now more people are binging on stale reruns.

The popularity of old sitcoms is especially interesting. Parris shares this chart—which shows how streamers have walked away from sitcoms during the last decade. If the audience is watching older comedies, you might think that the industry would take notice, and launch new ones. But they don’t.

“Audiences can’t get enough of a format that Hollywood has largely left behind,” Parris concludes. He goes on to wonder whether The Big Bang Theory might be the “last great sitcom: the closing chapter of a format that once dominated television.”

Why is this happening?

Maybe Hollywood’s abandonment of the sitcom is the result of a growing crisis of confidence at the heart of comedy in every sphere of society. I’ll be the first to admit that I have no idea what kind of jokes are acceptable today—and we all know that one poorly chosen joke on social media can end a career. I’m even less certain that I can anticipate what kinds of humor will be allowed in the future. In a world where you can be punished retroactively, that’s a real problem.

In such an unstable environment, only a fool would try to launch a new comedy franchise—far better to stick to drama or sci-fi or romance.


There are so many curious angles on this phenomenon. Horror, for example, was once heavily censored. But now there’s zero backlash no matter how much violence and bloodshed is depicted. So the same studios that fear to serve up a joke will happily showcase serial killings and dismemberments.

I must kill you, my dear—because I’m not allowed to tell you a joke.

On the other hand, there’s this:

If there’s any logic here, it’s beyond my ability to grasp.


If you’re looking for more interesting classical music than AI Beethoven, let me suggest another option.

The final performance in the debut run of Lincoln in the Bardo—a new opera by Missy Mazzoli based on George Saunder’s celebrated novel—will be live-streamed for free by the Metropolitan Opera on Saturday at 8PM (ET).

Here’s the link.

I haven’t heard this work yet, but I admire both Mazzoli and Saunders, and look forward to the performance.

People like their jobs, even British people

This paper investigates the role of work in providing meaning, purpose, community, and other non-monetary benefits. Using an original cross-national survey of 8,234 working-age adults across the UK, US, Denmark, and India, I study the factors that motivate people in their work, with an eye toward the future AI economic transformation. I find that 81% of respondents report being satisfied with their job, and a majority across all four countries are strongly motivated by the non-monetary components of their employment. Using an original “Work Values” Index, I show that one third of working respondents are motivated intrinsically by their job—valuing their role for its own sake. Nearly one quarter are driven by social and community-related aspects of their employment, 17% by social status, and just over one quarter by the transactional financial benefits of their job. Although a majority of people would leave their role if offered their current salary as a guaranteed income, one fifth of workers would stay even if offered up to 120% of their salary. Intrinsically motivated workers were disproportionately likely to refuse a basic income at any substitution level. Groups attached to their job for non-monetary reasons were also more likely to pursue volunteering or work-like activities if they received guaranteed income substitution but could no longer perform their role. Crucially, these non-monetary work motivations are evenly distributed across the income distribution and between white- and blue-collar workers. I argue that these findings have implications for managing the AI transition, understanding attitudes to AI, and making sense of policy preferences. Guaranteeing a basic income may indeed be necessary for managing any future AI labor shock, yet it could ultimately fail to compensate workers for any loss of the non-monetary benefits they derive from work.

That is from a new paper by Julian Jacobs, via Kevin Bryan.  And here is a thread on the paper.

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The Power and Roots of Aspirations

Aspirations have become a common theme in empirical economics studies but there is no unified understanding of the range of outcomes they influence, the factors that shape them, and how to measure them. We survey this growing literature. We argue that there is compelling evidence to consider aspirations as a useful lens to analyze human behavior and development outcomes, at the individual and aggregate levels, in poorer and richer countries. The empirical evidence aligns with the theory that high aspirations can lead individuals to achieve better educational, labor market, and other outcomes and can contribute to making countries more equal and prosperous. The empirical evidence also confirms that the mix of social and circumstantial factors shaping aspirations tends to hinder the aspirations of the disadvantaged—such as the poor, immigrants, and women—and can contribute to vicious circles of poverty, high inequality, low social mobility, and low growth. However, high aspirations should not be considered an end in themselves as they can backfire, with deleterious effects, if unmatched with opportunities. Further, we argue that definitional and measurement issues can affect the understanding of the topic and that studies should more explicitly describe their measures of aspirations to ensure that divergent underlying concepts are not mistaken.

That is from a 2025 paper by , , and  And here is a 2026 paper on similar topics.

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The Nvidia scandal metastasizes

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Politics Chat, November 13, 2026

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Mississippi Matters

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November 12, 2026

Mississippi has a new U.S. senator-elect.

Last night, the Associated Press called the race for Democrat Scott Colom, district attorney for the 16th Judicial District of Mississippi. Shortly afterward, Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith conceded the race, saying she respected the decision of the Mississippi voters. She congratulated Colom and wished him well.

Colom thus becomes the third Black senator from the state of Mississippi and the first ever elected by the people, as his two predecessors became senators in the years immediately after the Civil War, when state legislatures, rather than the people, still chose U.S. senators.

In 1870 the Mississippi legislature chose Hiram R. Revels, a minister who had been born free in North Carolina to free people of color, to finish the term of a Senate seat left empty in 1861 when the man who held it left with the state upon Mississippi’s secession from the United States. Over the opposition of Democrats, who were then the party of the Confederates, Revels became the nation’s first Black senator, serving for a little over a year, from February 25, 1870, to March 3, 1871.

The second Black senator from Mississippi was Blanche K. Bruce, who was born into slavery in Virginia and in 1868 moved to Mississippi, where he became a large landholder and was active in the Republican Party. The legislature elected him senator in 1874, and he served from March 1875 to March 1881, working closely with New York’s machine politician Roscoe Conkling, for whom he named his son. During his tenure, he presided over the Senate for a day, becoming the first Black person to preside over the Senate and the only formerly enslaved person to do so.

The backlash against Black political power was ferocious in Mississippi, where Black people outnumbered white people in 39 of the state’s 75 counties. In 1889, when Republicans began to talk about federal protection for Black voters in the South, lynching, which had been declining, rose again dramatically.

The next year, a convention rewrote the state constitution to enforce white supremacy by making it virtually impossible for Black people to vote. They required voters to pay a poll tax of $2 and to be able to show receipts for the two previous elections and to be able to interpret a section from the complicated state constitution chosen by a polling registrar. Because jurors were drawn from voting lists, being purged from them meant Black Americans couldn’t sit on juries, either.

Northerners, worried about the political power of new immigrants, cheered on Mississippi’s educational qualifications for voting, and by 1903 every southern state and many northern ones had rewritten their constitutions to adopt similar limits to suffrage.

Mississippi became the center of voter suppression in the United States, making it the state on which voting rights activists focused in the years after World War II, especially after the lynching of 14-year-old Emmett TIll in the state in 1955 in the wake of the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision requiring the desegregation of public schools.

Medgar Evers, a World War II veteran and the Mississippi field officer for the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), urged the national organization to get involved in calling for justice for the child. As part of his civil rights work to combat segregation, Evers led voter registration drives in the face of growing white resistance. On June 12, 1963, Byron De La Beckwith, a member of a white supremacist Citizen Council, shot Evers in the back.

In one of the most powerful ads of the campaign, Colom told the story.

“There’s a house in Jackson every Mississippian ought to walk through once,” Colom says, as he stands in front of Medgar Evers’s home. “It looks like every other house on the street, except for it isn’t. It has no front door. You come in through the carport, where the walls give you some cover. The children slept on the floor, below the windows. Their father taught them that if they ever heard gunfire, they should crawl to the bathroom. He made it a game.”

“I’ve been a prosecutor for ten years,” Colom said. “Unfortunately, I’ve stood in a lot of houses where something terrible happened. This isn’t any house. This isn’t any tragedy. This is where Medgar Evers died. He fought for this country at Normandy. He came home to Mississippi, and they wouldn’t let him vote.

“So he organized, helping other people register. Just after midnight on June 12, 1963, he pulled into here with an arm full of T-shirts that said, “Jim Crow Must Go.” A man hiding across the street shot him in the back. Two juries let that man walk. His wife, Myrlie, never stopped. It took 31 years, then a Mississippi prosecutor reopened the case, and a Mississippi jury, both Black and white, convicted him.

“In Mississippi, no one is above the law, and no one should be outside its protection. He was killed for helping Mississippians vote. On Tuesday, use your vote, and honor everyone who died for that right.”

Mississippians heard Colom. They went to the polls and made him the first Black candidate elected to the United States Senate from Mississippi.

In his victory speech, Colom reached back to minister Hiram Revels to anchor his journey to the Senate in the faith that he called a Mississippi tradition. “For me, this journey started with a prayer,” he said, “and in Mississippi, our prayers have often changed the course of history.” He called out Medgar Evers and voting rights activist Fannie Lou Hamer for their faith in Mississippi, but added that “in Mississippi, it’s local people that make the difference. Not just the names that are recorded in history, but people that do the work without any expectation of recognition.”

He continued: “I’ll tell you, it’s local people that had faith that Mississippi can make progress, and it’s local people like the people out here who had faith that we can win this election. So God bless you. But as my mom would always tell me, faith without work is dead, and we worked this election, y’all. We worked. God didn’t want us to get it the easy way, he wanted us to get it the Mississippi way.”

“For months and months, I’ve been telling everybody, everywhere I go, that we’re going to win this election,” Colom said. “I was saying that eight or nine months ago, and recently, I’ve been saying it on the news. But every time I said it, I pointed out that people were going to give me too much credit for it, because it’s not something that I did; it’s something that we did.”

“All I did was have the courage to imagine a night like this,” Colom said. “I had the courage to believe in Mississippi. I had the courage to understand that we could show the country that Mississippi matters.”

—

Notes:

https://apnews.com/article/mississippi-senate-colom-hydesmith-midterm-7f098b8834f598c923ba73572ea2223f

https://mississippiencyclopedia.org/entries/constitution-of-1890/

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/emmett-impact-emmett-tills-murder/

https://naacp.org/find-resources/history-explained/civil-rights-leaders/medgar-evers

Bluesky:

sahilkapur.bsky.social/post/3n235m4zwe22g

YouTube:

watch?v=ny3jT9yDUuE

watch?v=C7jOeSZbozU

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Don’t worry everyone, Markwayne Mullin is on the case!

As you’ve surely seen/heard/experienced by now, the FAA has grounded every flight. Wanna see Grandma this weekend? Nah. Wanna catch the big Hillsdale-Ohio Dominican football game this weekend? Bad news. Just wanna get away for, oh, your honeymoon? Might not happen.

Luckily, we have two people in charge calling the shots.

One is Sean Duffy, the transportation secretary and former Real World contestant.

And the other—my personal favorite—is former Oklahoma senator Markwayne Mullin, now overlord of Homeland Security.

Here’s Markwayne, discussing the issues …

“Out of abundant of caution.”

“OUT OF ABUNDANT OF CAUTION!!!!”

Bruh, I have low standards these days. Fuck some hookers? Fine. Snort some coke? Reasonable. Worked as a crack-dealing pimp back in 2022? People change.

But when a guy with a hugely important job cannot string words together?

We’re doomed.

PS:

Friday 13 November 1663

Up and to my office, busy all the morning with Commissioner Pett; at noon I to the Exchange, and meeting Shales, he and I to the Coffee-house and there talked of our victualling matters, which I fear will come to little. However I will go on and carry it as far as I can.

So home to dinner where I expected Commissioner Pett, and had a good dinner, but he came not. After dinner came my perriwigg-maker, and brings me a second periwigg, made of my own haire, which comes to 21s. 6d. more than the worth of my own haire, so that they both come to 4l. 1s. 6d., which he sayth will serve me two years, but I fear it.

He being gone, I to my office, and put on my new shagg purple gowne, with gold buttons and loop lace, I being a little fearful of taking cold and of pain coming upon me. Here I staid making an end of a troublesome letter, but to my advantage, against Sir W. Batten, giving Sir G. Carteret an account of our late great contract with Sir W. Warren for masts, wherein I am sure I did the King 600l. service.

That done home to my wife to take a clyster, which I did, and it wrought very well and brought a great deal of wind, which I perceive is all that do trouble me. After that, about 9 or 10 o’clock, to supper in my wife’s chamber, and then about 12 to bed.

Read the annotations

Gap Week, November 13, 2026

Hey folks! Another gap week this week as this week featured some other very substantial demands on my time (once again, Patrons will likely guess what those demands were).

But so that I don’t leave you with nothing to go on, here a few links to cap out the week:

Over at The Partial Historians (always worth catching for the Roman History fans), Alexandra Sills, author of Gladiators in the Greek World stopped by to talk about gladiators, particularly their place in the Greek East.

Also in ancient history news, there’s been a new Pasts Imperfect newsletter, always worth a look.

Over at the Ancient World Mapping Center, Tobin Smith, Gabriel Moss and Henry Gruber have unveiled a wonderful interactive map of all of the attendees of the Council of Chalcedon, a major church council in 451 called by the (East) Roman Emperor Marcian. The map is interesting on a number of levels – informative as to the Council itself (an important event in the formation of Christian religious doctrine), but equally an interesting barometer of the presence of important Christian communities (through their bishops) at the time and also of the reach of the Eastern Roman Emperor.

Commercial Space Federation Welcomes CesiumAstro as a New Associate Member

Commercial Space Federation 20th anniversary logo

November 13, 2026— Washington, D.C.—The Commercial Space Federation (CSF) is pleased to welcome CesiumAstro as its newest Associate Member. A global leader in advanced connectivity solutions for the space and […]

The post Commercial Space Federation Welcomes CesiumAstro as a New Associate Member appeared first on SpaceNews.

AST SpaceMobile presses case for developing own launch vehicle

Blacklift

AST SpaceMobile executives expressed confidence in the company’s ability to field a new reusable launch vehicle in just two years despite widespread industry skepticism.

The post AST SpaceMobile presses case for developing own launch vehicle appeared first on SpaceNews.

Microsoft, and Its Customers, Are Suffering a Global Cloud Outage

Ashley Belanger, Ars Technica:

A global outage taking down a wide range of Microsoft 365 services remains ongoing Friday morning.

The outage started midday Thursday, impacting users of Microsoft email, cloud, and AI services. Microsoft has documented the full list of services impacted by the error, while moving early Friday morning to protect customers around the world from losing emails during the extended disruptions.

“Recovery actions are ongoing,” the Microsoft 365 Status account confirmed on X. “To help preserve delayed mail during this event, we’ve extended email timeout to 48 hours.”

So it’s more like Microsoft 363 at this point.

 ★ 

David Sacks Is Fucked Too

David Sacks, on X:

Bombshell story. The spy narrative is collapsing already.

Is there clear & convincing evidence that Alice Huang was a Chinese spy?

  • AG says no. (“no conclusions reached”).
  • CIA says no. (“not yet convinced”).
  • DNI says no (“not entirely accurate and over-torqued”).
  • Ranking Democrat on House Intelligence (incoming Chairman) says no. (“today, at least, I don’t know”). This was immediately after he was briefed.

Who argues otherwise? Anonymous officials tell CNN “it strains credulity to believe that she was not acting as an agent of the Chinese government — simply by virtue of the fact that she is a successful Chinese businesswoman working with one of America’s most powerful companies.”

First, as for “who argues otherwise?”, the U.S. State Department is who. But more importantly, the degree to which Alice Huang worked for or with China’s MSS is almost a footnote on this scandal. It’s not central to the story at all.

It’s bad enough that Jensen Huang was having a yearslong affair with an executive from any Nvidia client. But Megaspeed was apparently a shell company dedicated to circumventing U.S. export controls for AI hardware to China. Alice Huang is, apparently, a criminal smuggler working to circumvent U.S. national security policy. If she was also cooperating with or taking direction from MSS that’s just icing on the cake.

I wrote in a post earlier today that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is being teed up to be scapegoated — deservedly — for the ails of the Republican Party and Trump administration. Sacks, I think, is going to be right there with him — also deservedly. This whole “Maybe she’s not a spy so the whole story is a scam” argument is drenched with flop sweat.

Sacks originally joined Team Trump 2.0 as “AI czar”. In that capacity he was the leading proponent in the Trump administration for a hands-off approach to AI regulation generally, and specifically a look-the-other-way policy regarding Nvidia’s 20-percent-of-revenue side hustle selling banned-for-sale-to-China hardware to smugglers.

Sacks might not just get sacked. If this goes south and people wind up being convicted of crimes, Sacks will be at the front of that line too. The pardon from Trump will cost Sacks real money.

 ★ 

NYT: ‘Howard Lutnick Took Softer Line on Nvidia as Calls for Tougher Controls Grew’

Ana Swanson, Tripp Mickle, Maggie Haberman, and Jonathan Swan, in a long deeply-sourced profile of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (gift link):

There is broad agreement among most senior Trump administration officials that the United States should more aggressively tighten controls on Nvidia’s advanced chips to keep China from using them to catch up in the race to dominate artificial intelligence.

Then there is Howard Lutnick, who runs the Commerce Department. [...]

Within the Commerce Department, Nvidia is treated differently than other firms, current and former officials say, with its issues given high priority and sent through specific channels.

Mr. Lutnick frequently calls and messages with Mr. Huang, and the department prepares carefully for their private meetings together in Mr. Lutnick’s fifth floor office. All Nvidia matters are routed through Jeff Kessler, a top deputy to Mr. Lutnick, who is said to rarely take any significant action without the commerce secretary’s approval.

Nvidia’s general counsel has also been given direct access to shape new rules, including leaving comments in draft regulations affecting the company.

Here’s a photo from the Times story, taken this July in the Washington D.C. Cheesecake Factory, with Lutnick telling Jensen Huang, “Dude, seriously, smell my finger...”

Howard Lutnick and Jensen Huang in the Oval Office.

Republicans as a party, and the Trump administration in particular, need scapegoats for the historical disaster of their election losses last week. Huang and Nvidia are going to be one of them. Lutnick is another. He’s cooked.

 ★ 

No Room on the Lifeboat … Admin Sharks Circle Lutnick

The attempt to pin the NVIDIA-Huang spy scandal on Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is galloping forward. Earlier today Treasury Scott Bessent went on CNBC and squarely laid the blame on Lutnick for slow-rolling and loosely enforcing export controls on NVIDIA chips. This is no different from the accusations we’ve been hearing about from unnamed sources in numerous reports. But going public and laying blame on CNBC is a whole ‘nother thing. This Journal article goes deeper into the specifics of the accusations, Lutnick’s apparently fairly close relationship to Jensen Huang and other details of this internal administration battle.

This is a complicated picture. Lutnick does have his finger on the export control enforcement spigot. He is, among the high administration officials without the Trump surname, unquestionably the shadiest character — cash on the barrel, there are no laws, etc. He also appears to be closest to Huang and to have introduced him to Trump. Just because Trump is crooked and indifferent to national security when there’s money to be made doesn’t mean Lutnick couldn’t have out-crooked him in this particular case.

All this said, earlier reporting suggested that to the extent he was going easy on NVIDIA, he was responding to guidance from Trump. We have pretty tight reporting suggesting that Trump first learned about Huang’s affair with a suspected Chinese spy a year ago and then again in May. He did nothing. He’s also been supportive of Huang’s push to ease restrictions on his chip selling to China. In other words, there’s lots of evidence that Lutnick was either following Trump’s guidance or that Trump was at least on board with what Lutnick was doing.

What it all amounts to is that the sharks are swirling to make Lutnick the scapegoat, make good on sundry intra-administration vendettas and wall the scandal off from Trump. But the details of who really did what remain unclear. And even if Lutnick was in some sense the driver of giving Huang a pass to sell into China, Trump’s fingerprints are all over it.

Going Live at 1 PM

TPM’s Untitled Live Show (Name TBD) returns today at 1 p.m. ET. If you think you’ve read all there is to be said about the Nvidia boss’ sex scandal, resignation and the ways in which it makes the Trump administration look wet behind the ears, just wait.

I hope you’ll join Joe, Hunter, Derick and myself this afternoon on YouTube. Come Huang out.

The Filibuster Runs Deep. Very Deep.

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 16: (R-L) U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (D-VT) holding a meeting with Senate Budget Committee Democrats in the Mansfield Room at the U.S. Capitol building on June 16, 2021 in Washington, DC. The Majority Leader and Democrats on the Senate Budget Committee are meeting to discus how to move forward with the Biden Administrations budget proposal. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Chuck Schumer; Bernie Sanders

I went back and forth with a number of people yesterday about the filibuster and the leadership contest in the Senate Democratic caucus yesterday. You want Van Hollen because among other reasons, some contended, he gets you closer to getting rid of the filibuster. Don’t be so sure of that. I want to show you something that popped up yesterday in my Twitter feed that is a good example of why. TPM alum Sahil Kapur posted this clip of Bernie Sanders getting asked about the filibuster. The answer isn’t great. I’m not picking on Sanders here. I’m flagging this precisely because Sanders is a key player making this leadership contest possible and people imagine, with some good reason, that Sanders is most willing to upend conventions, take on establishment thinking, etc. It’s an example of how deep filibuster thinking runs.

In case you don’t get a chance to watch, the gist of what he says is this: There are some good reasons for getting rid of the filibuster, majorities should govern, etc. But then he says that the filibuster is also key to protecting the rights of the minority. Having given a pretty equivocal response he then kind of dismisses the question by saying he’s confident the Democrats can pass a pretty good reconciliation bill. In other words, a big omnibus bill which has to survive the budgetary impact “Byrd” rules and ends up having a million different things in it and no one really knows what they are.

Again, this isn’t a criticism of or picking on Sanders. His reply is notable precisely because Sanders is presumably going to be among those most willing to upset the apple cart (though this can also be more generational than ideological). But even he’s pretty resistant.

One TPM reader just told me it’s crazy to get into a big fight about this now when President Trump’s veto makes this mostly moot. That is a credible argument; but I disagree. With the filibuster in place, you’re not going to be able to pass a bunch of popular bills that President Trump is forced to veto. And you’re not going to be able to put Senate Republicans on the spot and force them to vote against popular bills either. So a lot of what people want Democrats to do out of the gate next year isn’t actually going to happen. It’ll peter out in parliamentary minutiae.

The good news is we don’t really have to settle that argument because the argument in favor is the same either way. You’re not going to be able to hit the ground running in 2029 (if there’s a trifecta) if you haven’t laid the groundwork in 2027 and 2028 — precisely because support for this anti-majority relic runs a lot deeper than people like to think. Whether you think it’s critical in 2027 or 2029 you’ve got to start identifying who is on what side today.

What makes the filibuster so hard to ditch is that the conversation about it is murked up in these vague and equivocal answers — being kind of against it but never quite ready to get rid of it. This is how the Senate works — really, how both legislative bodies work: members always want to keep their positions vague because it preserves their freedom of action. If you take a moment to think about it, it’s remarkable that even for people who follow this closely, it’s extremely difficult to name any senators who are definitively and publicly in favor of killing the filibuster or keeping it.

That vagueness is by design. As long as the Democratic caucus is an amorphous blob when it comes to the filibuster, sort of against it but not in a specific or definitive way, it’s impossible to grab on to, impossible to start dividing the caucus into supporters and opponents and begin pressuring or convincing members to shift from one column to the other.

If you’re serious about ending the filibuster — and almost everything depends on it — you have to change that: you have to start identifying supporters and opponents, get them on the record. And you have to start doing it today because if you don’t you’ll roll into 2029 in the exact same situation, with this intractable barrier to progress which isn’t going anywhere any time soon.

Andrew Sharp: ‘Jensen Huang Was Always Going to Lose’

Andrew Sharp, in an excellent column at Sharp Text:

I have a variety of thoughts after spending the past several days reading and recording podcasts about these (figurative and literal) affairs, but let me express one unpopular sentiment at the outset: what happened to Jensen Huang this week is tragic and depressing.

I have a disease that makes me sympathetic to almost anyone who ends up on the wrong end of viral outrage and panic, and unfortunately it’s flaring up again. Huang is one of the greatest CEOs in American history. He’s still hyper competent, he’s been incredibly important to the growth of the AI ecosystem, and frankly, he’s among the most sane of the contemporary tech leaders we have on offer. His fall from grace has been not only stunning but seemingly coordinated.

It is sad. But it’s also funny. Many tragedies are also hilarious. (That’s a key to Shakespeare’s enduring fame — his tragedies had funny scenes and his comedies had painful themes.)

But I think it’s now a very open question whether Jensen Huang was even a vaguely responsible CEO, let alone “one of the greatest CEOs in American history”. What’s undisputed is that he’s one of the greatest technical innovators in history. Nvidia technology is world-beating in several regards. But that doesn’t make him a great CEO. If Nvidia falls apart because he — by his own admission — rejected the notion of succession planning and structured the company with no hierarchy other than himself at the center, that’s an abject failure. Ignoring the fact that he himself knew the risks he was taking with his sexual escapades, he could have been hit by a bus on any given day. The leadership structure Huang cultivated is like being the sole breadwinner in a family and not having a life insurance policy. If that breadwinner dies in an accident and leaves their family destitute, no one’s going to call them “one of the greatest parents in history”. Maybe it’ll all work out for Nvidia though. We don’t know yet. Only time will tell. But I don’t think it looks good at the moment. If I owned Nvidia stock I’d sell it all right now.

The above doesn’t even touch upon my belief that Nvidia’s meteoric rise to the top market cap in the world was fueled — to some extent — by a circular financing racket. If my side of that argument is ultimately proven correct — that the AI bubble is essentially an elaborate, complex Ponzi scheme — Huang’s plaque in the CEO Hall of Fame will go in the Infamy Wing alongside Enron’s Jeffrey Skilling, Elizabeth Holmes, and Sam Bankman-Fried. Maybe I’m all wet about that. But I’d say it’s at least an open question at the moment.

Sharp, nearing his conclusion:

Huang repeatedly belittled those people with both his rhetoric and his company’s behavior, and indeed, he questioned the patriotism of anyone who dared to object. In so doing, he was waging war with not only large swaths of the U.S. security apparatus, but also the realities of Xi Jinping’s China that would inevitably make it impossible to sustain his position without looking naive, selfish, and unforgivably reckless.

Read the whole thing, and Sharp ends up making the case himself that Huang, ultimately, was a terrible CEO, not a great one.

 ★ 

Inside Jensen Huang’s Final Hours as the CEO of Nvidia

Drake Bennett and Ian King, reporting for Bloomberg (gift link):

At the end, Jensen Huang looked broken and shattered, his legendary energy depleted. After weeks spent denying the allegations of infidelity and fighting to remain in his job as Nvidia Corp.’s chief executive officer, his surrender late Wednesday night was unconditional. Huang’s usual take-charge demeanor had evaporated, according to a person familiar with the situation, and he’d started using phrases like “whatever” and “I don’t care.”

For the decades he spent building Nvidia into a multitrillion-dollar AI chip behemoth, Huang was famous for his attention to the tiniest of details, from chip architecture to the compensation packages of even the most junior employees at the company. Now, in the eyes of the people in the room, he had given up.

According to people who’ve spoken with him in recent days, Huang has already taken a penitent turn, castigating himself as a “piece of shit.”

It really is sad. No joke here. It’s sad.

 ★ 

Van Hollen Says the Filibuster Should Go

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 08: Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) walks through the basement of the U.S. Capitol building following a vote in the Senate on June 8, 2021 in Washington, DC. Senate Democrats and Republicans are continuing their negations on President Joe Biden’s infrastructure plan and have yet to come to a deal. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Chris Van Hollen

As I’ve noted, these leadership challenges don’t mean a lot if they don’t include abolishing the filibuster. This afternoon Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), who just announced what remains a fairly longshot challenge to Chuck Schumer, says he supports getting rid of it.

“My personal opinion is that we need democracy in the United States Senate and that means allowing ultimately a majority of senators to answer the call of the American people, so that means 51 votes … My personal view has been all along that the filibuster is an anti-democratic — small “d” — provision. It’s not in our Constitution. It was put in there by senators to enhance their power over the power of the people.”

As you can see he’s framing this as his personal view. But that goes without saying. As I explained, a parliamentary leader isn’t a “decider,” as George W. Bush famously put it. He or she steers where their caucus wants to go. So it’s not a matter of him saying I will do this when I’m leader. But him pretty unequivocally supporting it is a big, big deal.

Let me add a few additional points of context. You’ll note that Van Hollen says “ultimately” the majority should get its way. This is a key point since many people say they support restoring the “talking” filibuster in which the minority actually has to hold the floor without interruption to prevent a vote on a bill. That old system is more a matter of movies than reality. It never worked quite that way. But the concept has merit.

As TPM Readers know, the filibuster has been a big issue for me for many years. I’ve generally avoided getting into these different flavors of filibuster since it tends to overcomplicate and confuse the issue, which is getting rid of the absolute requirement of 60 votes to pass most laws (the exceptions being high level judicial appointments and reconciliation bills.) If I were deciding this on my own I would choose a system in which the minority could meaningfully delay a vote on a big issue but never indefinitely. Many parliamentary systems have versions of this with multiple “readings” of a bill. Say perhaps that the minority could hold up a vote for two or three weeks. That would be reasonable.

What’s the point? Two really. The Senate is supposed to be more deliberative. You can’t just bang through a bunch of laws in a single day with no debate. The standard argument is that the filibuster drives compromise. But that’s demonstrably false based on the record of the last quarter century. It creates gridlock. Majorities, even large ones, can’t pass the legislation they promised on the campaign trail. But there is a logic to saying that really important legislation shouldn’t barrel through the Senate before the public has gotten a chance to know what’s happening. The best argument for some kind of slow-rolling mechanism is that it gives the minority some time to draw public attention to something the public may not really support. It’s a complicated question, how necessary this is. My point in raising this is only to note that an ability for the minority to slow or stymie legislative is workable as long as it is not absolute and the minority has to affirmatively do something to accomplish it. A few weeks seems like a reasonable timeframe.

There’s More Here Than We Thought

This is just a general observation. When I first started following the NVIDIA scandal, I had the sense that Jensen Huang was either duped by these cut-out companies sending NVIDIA chips (physically or virtually) to China, or perhaps he was beguiled by Alice Huang, the suspected Chinese spy. But it’s very hard to square that basic take with the various reports we’re seeing.

Huang was a very hands-on CEO. But the kinds of transactions we’re talking about require lots of people to be involved. There are multiple examples of what seems like NVIDIA taking affirmative steps to conceal what it was doing. And a decent amount of this seems to have been an open secret. A short seller (Culper Research) published a report all the way back in May that set forth the broad outlines of Huang’s relationship with Alice Huang and the mammoth amount of NVIDIA production that was going to China through these cuts-out and backchannels. There are a lot of boutique investment research products out there. But a lot of this, or a lot of smoke about this, has been out there for months. It kind of seems like all the key players knew just what they were doing, who they were helping. You can even see a bit of this in the sharks swirling around Howard Lutnick. Bessent isn’t saying “I can’t believe you were doing this.” It’s more like, “we’ve been telling you not to do this all along and you wouldn’t listen.” I’m not clear what all this amounts to. But the evidence is running significantly ahead of what seemed like the original storyline.

Jake Bauers Agrees To Four-Year Deal With Red Sox (4/58)

Jake Bauers, former first baseman of the World Series champion Milwaukee Brewers has agreed to a four-year contract ($58 million) with the Red Sox, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.

Bauers, 31, had a career-best season with the Brewers in 2026: .266/.389/.484, 26 home runs, 86 RBIs. He was named MVP of the NLCS.

Alex Speier of the Globe reports that Bauers will have a physical next week before the deal is finalized. The contract breakdown:

2027 - $16M
2028 - $16M
2029 - $15M
2030 - $11M

Theo DeRosa, mlb.com:

Prior to 2026, Bauers, who made his debut for Tampa Bay in 2018, had a career .211 average and .672 OPS with the Rays, Guardians, Mariners, Yankees and Brewers. . . .

[In 2026], Bauers hit the ball harder than ever, increasing his barrel rate to 14% and reaching career highs in his average exit velocity (92.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (51.9%). According to Statcast, he ranked above the 90th percentile among qualifying hitters in all three of those categories as well as expected wOBA, average bat speed and chase rate.

Bauers' refusal to expand the zone explains his career-best 16.3% walk rate, which ranked in the 98th percentile, although he still whiffed a lot and had a high strikeout rate (27%, 16th percentile). While a majority of his home runs came to the pull side, Bauers still showed the ability to go up the middle or the opposite way for singles and doubles.

A collection of thoughts from SoSH (I seem to have preferred comments that view this as a positive  signing because they offered more insight and reasoning, which tells you something):

The upside is certainly there as a power bat if is 2026 can be replicated.

Any reason to think 2026 wasn't a fluke / career year / outlier?

FWIW, my recollection is he has pretty good pedigree/was a relatively highly ranked prospect. So, late bloomer hopefully,

How much has to do with organizational hitting coaching/philosophies and will Bauers get that in Boston?

Whoa! That came outta nowhere. Well, we got some power. And the AAV is nice.

If you believe the breakout this could be unreal.
He'll be 31 all season. Honestly, the deal just feels super light and a no brainer at this costs.

I like it. Second in NL in OBP last year. 30-HR power. Of course he's only done it one year, but the cost reflects that and feels pretty reasonable?
Much as I like him, I don't think Casas should be counted on for anything. …
Masa and Duran should not prevent the Sox from improving offense.
Bauers is better and more valuable than all of these guys. I support bringing in guys that improve the Sox, and figuring out how the pieces fit after.

Savant has Fenway Park as the worst fit for his HR power in baseball.

Kind of the same thinking as the Mead acquisition. A player who has struggles has a breakout year or half year and Boston bets that the relatively SSS is indicative of the true level of performance.

Sad that this takes Suzuki off the table. He's not going to hit 30 HR at Fenway but he will bounce plenty off the monster - better oppo air% than all our lefties but Abreu. Seems like a smart hitter too. He had some ridiculous long ABs in the NLCS.

I'm very happy with the move. I mentioned him as the guy I hoped they'd get since it was a realistically available bat at one of the few easy to upgrade positions. I didn't see them being the high bidder for Suzuki and they've got little to move from the farm.

His 2025 stats were not great but his underlying data was pretty much the same as it was in 2026. I think he started to break out in 2025, he just was unlucky and did not get the playing time because Vaughn was hitting well for the Brewers in 2025.

He doesn't chase, he has great bat speed, and hits everything hard. His AAV is 2/3 of the QO and he's not exactly old. I'm failing to see what the problem is here.

He also had a 35 point jump in BABIP over 2025, which had been a career high by 10 points. Im not someone who can say that's meaningful or not, but it jumped off the stat page to me.

I don't understand the hate here. >15 mil per year to someone with 25-30 HR power? I think that's a very reasonable contract, for someone that fits well in our lineup.

No hate here. in 2026 $14 mill is not a hefty gamble. I'm fine with it...provided the right 2nd and 3rd moves follow.

Career year going into free agency. This is one of the dumbest contracts this organization has ever done. He's not a 25-30 HR guy.

I don't think a deal under $60m could ever be one of the dumbest things they've done. That's less than Rusney got!

It's probably not even the top 5 worst contracts we've signed in the last 2 years.

The Sox are adding MLB depth to a roster that was running on AAAA talent into the playoffs. Its also not money that belongs to any members here so I don't get any handwringing. We should want the Sox to have logjams of MLB players for not only depth reasons but also because it gives them currency to add other pieces.
No complaints here. Keep adding MLB talent and let the normal injuries, attrition, fatigue etc sort it all out.

If he plays at the same level he did in 2025, over more ABs of course, it's still a decent deal ... it just probably doesn't move the ball forward for us offensively. So that's the risk to me: there's a chance he flops, sure, but there's also a chance he's not as good as last year but is passable and we still need better than that.

He's not just bringing power: Bauer is an extremely patient hitter who runs very high walk rates. He had a .389 OBP last season, which would have far surpassed every RS hitter except Contreras (who was .386). After the playoffs this board was pining for more patient hitters in the lineup and Bauers provides that in spades

[Breslow]'s building depth, which is always a good thing. And agree on the quality of ABs. Bauers style is lacking on this team. And the Brewers just proved that you don't need a fantasy baseball lineup to win. Building as solid a 1-9 is just as viable a strategy, especially since obtaining a star is near impossible these days.

The thing is...Milwaukee is the first place he was able to spend more than one season at. And he got progressively better every season while there. Makes me wonder if a big part of his development was having consistency not only in enviornment, but with the coaches who were watching him...working with him...developing him. . . . I can buy this being real. Sure, I expect some regression. But can he remain a .245-.250 hitter who gets on base 35%+ of the time and hits 20-22 HR? And for everyone saying he isn't a 20+ HR hitter historically, he has hit 1 HR every 30 plate appearances over his career. Projecting over full seasons, that's 20 HR.

I'm shocked that so many people are against this. He was a former top prospect who became a late bloomer. He had an amazing Sept. 2025, so it's a little more than 1 year breakout. He is patient (we need that), has power (we need that), goes the other way in the air to use the Monster (we need more of that), plays a good 1B so he can split 1B/DH with Contreras and hopefully keep Contreras healthier down the stretch. He can also spell a corner outfielder if needed. Great OBP guy. And the contract is actually very reasonable by today's standards. I would think this means Duran and Yoshida are gone, which actually will help the roster.

Since 2023 he's posted an xwOBA of .345. 2025-2026 was very good but 2023 wasn't bad either. You hope he replicates something like that.

They're definitely taking the throw-spaghetti-at-the-wall approach to see what sticks.
But I would rather that than they did nothing. You've now got a lot of guys between Roman, Mead, Bauers, Arias, and Rutschman (and even Campbell) who have tremendous potential and have had very good years, but who have also had down/disappointing years...
but we really just need some of them to hit in order for things to go our way, IMO. It's not a bad approach to building an offense. It's certainly better than doing nothing.
EDIT: What I like most with Bauers is the elite patience. 16.3% BB rate last year after 14.7% the year before. We desperately needed good at-bats. He gives great ones.

Ben Clemens and Kiri Oler, Fangraphs:

Ben's Take [ranks Bauers #12 on list of 2026 FA]

Every time I updated my view of this free agent class throughout the year, I moved Bauers up. In the end, I might have gone too far by floating him all the way up to the top 12, but I kept looking at the players I had ranked ahead of him and thinking "Man, I'd rather have Bauers." Bauers comfortably clears the "first base dead zone" – a wRC+ in the 105-115 area – that feels easily replaceable on the waiver wire or from the minor leagues. He's the best lefty slugger on the market, and he's not that far behind Suzuki as the best slugger overall. He's going to crack a few strikeout eggs while he makes his walk-and-home-run omelets, but he's not just up there hacking with no idea of what's going on. He has great plate discipline and his contact numbers aren't abysmal; he's just patient and willing to work deep counts waiting for a pitch to drive.

The reason to fade Bauers is the lack of track record. He posted 3.6 WAR this year – and he has 3.2 career WAR. That's cause for skepticism. But my projection is for a skeptic's contract: not too many years, not too much AAV, easy enough to walk away from if things don't pan out. And when I looked at it that way, I had a much easier time placing him on this list. . . . 

Player Notes [Oler]

Bauers' free agency will depend heavily on how much teams believe that the left-handed first baseman flipped a switch in September of 2025. . . .

Bauers now has two seasons of above-average hitting on his ledger . . . His expected stats have trended upward alongside his actual results, lending credibility to his newfound productivity. The "no thoughts, head empty" approach has led Bauers to more selective swing decisions. He's whiffing less on pitches outside of the zone and doing more damage on pitches in the zone and just above it. Simplifying his mental process has translated to fewer strikeouts, more walks, and improved contact quality. Further, Bauers did supplement his internal approach with some external tweaks. He moved back in the box and opened up his stance, allowing even more time for those crucial swing decisions.

Bauers doesn't dazzle on defense, but given that he posted the fourth best wRC+ (143) among qualified left-handed hitters in 2026, Brewers skipper Pat Murphy appears to be correct in his assessment that Bauers is about to be very rich, whether he signs with the "horseshit Yankees" or not.

Starship in orbit ahead of catch attempt, booster diverts to explosive splashdown

Starship lifts off on its 15th flight from Starbase, Texas at 4:48 p.m. CST on Friday, Nov. 13, 2026. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now.

SpaceX launched it’s most ambitious Starship flight to date, hoping to demonstrate its revolutionary rocket is fully reusable by recovering both its first and second stages, but although the Ship upper stage reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink satellites, the booster diverted to a fiery splashdown off shore in the Gulf.

The Starship vehicle lifted off from Starbase in Texas at 4:47 p.m. CST (5:47 p.m. EST / 2247 UTC) on Friday, Nov. 13.

The flight plan called for Super Heavy Booster 22 to return to pad 2 at Starbase about 6.5 minutes after launching from there but it diverted to a splashdown offshore.

“GNC [Guidance, Navigation and Control] triggered that abort. It was doing what it was supposed to do, basically detected that the booster was not in the place that it was supposed to be to proceed with the catch, did an automated abort, and then headed out to that offshore splashdown location,” SpaceX commentator Dan Huot said in an update about 16.5 hours into the mission. He clarified an earlier update he gave on the SpaceX webcast: “I did a disservice to our booster GNC guys last night. It was not a GNC issue that caused us not to come back.”

The vehicle exploded and disappeared from view before appearing to rise back out of the sea as remaining propellants burned off. Three previous boosters were caught by the launch pad tower but Version 3 of the Super Heavy is yet to make a successful return.

Super Heavy Booster B22 explodes before hitting the water off shore after diverting from a potential catch by the launch pad tower’s chopsticks. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now.

Following the successful deployment of 26 Version 3 Starlink satellites, Ship 42 entered what, if all goes to plan, will be a long coast phase of up to 14 orbits of the planet. If all systems remain healthy it is scheduled to return to the launch site, 22.5 hours after launch or at around 3:20 p.m. CST (4:20 p.m. EST / 2120 UTC).

SpaceX has options to end the mission early with splashdowns off Hawaii and Chile if there is any doubt about the safety of a landing attempt at Starbase, which will take the craft over Mexico and South Texas.

Are we witnessing an intelligence explosion?

From Luis Garicano and Alex Imas:

Hence AI capabilities improved 1.91 times faster after October 2025, but R&D spending grew 6.19 times and the technical workforce 3.10 times. So measured capability gains per dollar fell by approximately 69%, and measured gains per technical employee-year decreased by 38%. These figures are accounting; nothing causal can be inferred…

The accounting exercise we just did cannot tell us which. It shows that returns per dollar decreased: spending multiplied by 6.2 and the pace of progress by 1.9. But two different causes for this are possible. One is congestion: the effort is getting less productive as it increases, because it is hard organizationally to increase the budget by more than five times in a year. The other possibility is that each advance is harder than the last. With enough congestion, these same two numbers are even consistent with each advance making the next one easier, which is what an explosion requires. To know whether a break is needed, we must know what an unchanged relationship would have delivered…

In sum our finding is consistent with that of Bloom and his coauthors: ideas are getting harder to find in AI too, and maintaining the rate of improvement requires ever larger increases in inputs.

Overall the idea of an intelligence explosion still remains to be demonstrated.

The post Are we witnessing an intelligence explosion? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Friday assorted links

1. Peru cancels the Moche sculptures for obscenity?

2. Claude translates from The Kalevela.

3. David Chalmers on AI speed-ups.

4. Cass Sunstein picks Bob Dylan’s best songs.

5. “Hobby dogging”?

6. Argentina worries and updates.

7. Jon Hartley podcast with James Heckman.

8. The world without Jensen? Good piece.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Ultimate Movie Series

Sadly, none of the 14 Land Before Time films manage to make the list, although a small but devoted fan contingent argues that The Great Longneck Migration should beat out Guardians of the Galaxy.

AI Doesn’t Have to Go Rogue to Break the World

This essay is adapted from a keynote speech delivered at the DEF CON 34 conference in Las Vegas on August 7, 2026. The essay originally appeared in CyberScoop.

I want to talk about AI hacking. There are three aspects: people hacking AI systems, people using AI to hack other systems, and AIs hacking systems on their own, not even maliciously. The last two matter more than the first. The third is the weirdest and potentially the most destabilizing.

I started writing about this in 2021 and in my 2022 book, A Hacker’s Mind. Back then I said it was mostly still science fiction, but not stupid science fiction. We’re seeing it more and more, especially in the past year. The trends I’m describing don’t require a major breakthrough in AI. They’re starting to happen now, and they’ll happen more often as AIs get better at autonomous problem-solving. And it will involve far more than computer code.

AI will hack all sorts of social, economic and political systems. It will find vulnerabilities and exploit them. This is a difference in kind, not just degree. We’re not ready for it, and we need to think about the implications now.

First, I want to broaden the term “hacking.”

The tax code isn’t computer code, but it is code. It’s a series of algorithms with inputs and outputs. It has vulnerabilities, which we call loopholes, and exploits, which we call tax avoidance strategies. Black hat hackers exploit them for profit. We call them accountants and attorneys.

What is a hack? One definition: “Something that a system permits, but is unanticipated and unwanted by the designers.” It’s subjective and implies novelty and cleverness. A hack follows the rules of a system but subverts its goals or intent, just as a software hack follows the logic of code while doing something its authors neither anticipated nor wanted.

All systems of rules can be hacked, including professional sports, customer reward programs, financial systems and politics. Hacks even work against our cognitive functions. A curved hockey stick is a hack, and we know the name of the man who invented it. Mileage runs were a hack. The filibuster was originally a hack in Roman times. Gerrymandering is a hack. Hedge funds and private equity are full of them.

A system is just a set of rules or norms, and the rules aren’t always formal. Even the best-designed rules will be incomplete, inconsistent or ambiguous. As long as people want to subvert a system’s goals, there will be hacks.

AIs are becoming hackers. After decades of slow progress, they’ve gotten very good at finding and exploiting vulnerabilities in computer code. They do this largely autonomously, and they’re getting better scarily fast. But the implications extend far beyond software, to the tax code, financial regulations and all sorts of social, economic and political systems.

There are two distinct issues. First, someone might instruct an AI to hack one of these systems, feeding it the world’s tax codes or financial regulations to find profitable loopholes. Second, an AI might hack a system on its own, inadvertently. Both are dangerous, but the second is worse because we might never know it happened.

Now, reward hacking. AIs don’t solve problems the way people do. They stumble on solutions we never anticipated, and some subvert the intent of the system. They don’t share our context and don’t necessarily understand the implications, norms and values we take for granted.

Reward hacking is when an AI achieves a goal in a way its designers neither wanted nor intended.

Early pre-LLM examples are telling. In a two-person soccer simulation, an AI learned that kicking the ball out of bounds forced the opposing goalie to throw it in and leave the goal undefended. In a stacking simulation, an AI learned to flip a block upside down rather than stack it. In an evolution simulation where the goal was to cross a distant finish line, an AI made itself tall enough to fall over the line instead of growing longer legs or stronger muscles.

These are all hacks, the result of poorly specified goals or rewards. Today, they’d come from bad prompting.

The problem is universal. One researcher tried to teach a robot vacuum not to bump into things. Instead, it learned to drive backward, because there were no sensors in the back.

Any capable AI will find hacks wherever the rules have problems, inconsistencies or loopholes that still produce an acceptable solution. We see a hack because we understand context. The AI doesn’t, at least not in the same way.

This problem shows up often in myth.

In the story of King Midas, the god Dionysus grants him a wish: everything he touches turns to gold. Midas ends up starving when his food, drink and daughter all turn to gold. It’s a specification problem. He programmed the wrong goal.

In the Golem of Prague, a ghetto animates a clay statue to guard its residents. It guards them past all reason until they figure out how to turn it off. This is a guardrail problem. The villagers never limited the golem’s actions.

More generally, think of this as the genie problem. Genies are precise about the wording of wishes and can be maliciously pedantic when granting them. There’s no way to outsmart a genie. Whatever you wish for, he can grant it in a way you wish he hadn’t.

The reason is that in human language and thought, goals are always underspecified. We never include every caveat, exception and proviso, and we never close off every avenue for hacking. Any goal we specify will be incomplete. That’s largely fine in human interactions, because people understand context and usually act in good faith.

If I asked you to get me coffee, you’d pour a cup from the nearest coffee pot or walk to the corner shop. You wouldn’t bring me a pound of raw beans, buy a coffee plantation or snatch a cup from a stranger’s hands. I wouldn’t have to specify any of that. You’d just know.

Similarly, if I asked you to develop a technology that turns things to gold on touch, you wouldn’t build it to starve the person using it. You’d just know.

In 2015, Volkswagen was caught cheating on emissions tests. Human engineers programmed a regular computer to detect testing and behave differently during it. The cheat went undetected for years because it’s hard to tell what software is doing.

If I asked you to design engine control software that maximizes performance while passing emissions tests, you wouldn’t design it to cheat without realizing you were cheating. An AI would, because it will think “outside the box” when it has no concept of the box.

Unless programmers specify that the system must not behave differently during testing, an AI might come up with the same hack. The programmers would be satisfied, the accountants would be ecstatic, and no one would know until someone audited the code.

We can now constrain the goal to avoid that particular hack, but programmers won’t anticipate others. The lesson of the genie is that there will always be hacks programmers don’t anticipate.

We’re building AI genies: systems that take broad instructions and figure out how to carry them out, sometimes in ways we didn’t expect or intend. That’s the whole point of vibe coding. You underspecify what you want and let the AI work it out. Sometimes that produces genie behavior.

We can’t completely specify goals to an AI, and AIs can’t fully understand context. More precisely, current AIs have a shallow grasp of concepts. If we asked a current LLM to get me coffee, it would almost certainly do the right thing.

I worry about goals that aren’t well represented in training data, and about hacks that aren’t obvious, whose effects are subtle, like the Volkswagen hack.

Recommendation engines are an early example. They push people toward extreme content. No one programmed that. It emerged because that’s what people respond to. It didn’t take a bad actor. A basic automated system with feedback found the hack on its own.

We’re now seeing a second generation with today’s AI coding systems. AI researcher Simon Willison asked Fable to track down a stray scrollbar in a web app. When he returned, it had opened browsers, written its own screenshot tools, edited the framework’s internal templates to make the bug appear on cue and set up a local web server to collect measurements. It found the bug, but it also did many things he never asked for. Another researcher gave Fable a complex task, and it tried to hack its own memory limits because it needed more storage.

A new OpenAI model did something similar when it hacked into Hugging Face. It was being benchmarked on its ability to turn vulnerabilities into exploits. It decided the best way to reach its goal was to break out of its containment, access the internet and break into the Hugging Face network, because it thought the answers would be there.

Today’s LLMs are acting like genies, especially when powerful models are combined with sophisticated harnesses.

There are two kinds of genies. The Dionysus genie does the wrong thing. It understands your prompt literally but not correctly, and returns a mess you never intended. The Golem genie does the right thing but tramples everything in its path to get there. The paperclip maximizer is a Golem genie.

Consider some examples. Ask an AI to deal with spam calls, and a Dionysus genie might change your phone number. Ask it to book a particular flight, and a Golem genie might hack the airline database because the flight is full. Ask it to get a refund for an online purchase, and a Dionysus genie might draft a legal threat on fake letterhead and send it to the company. Ask it to buy tickets to a popular concert, and a Golem genie might discover the ticketing system is rate-limited and spin up thousands of cloud servers to hammer it. You’d know if some of these things happened, but you might never realize if others did. More detailed prompting won’t fix this. The lesson of the genie is that no amount of detail is good enough.

AI researchers aren’t surprised by any of this. Many are working on defenses against reward hacking and subtler forms of genie behavior. Some of this falls under “value alignment”: How do we teach AIs context? And how an AI satisfies a goal matters as much as whether it does. I want to build a benchmark to measure genie-like behavior, so we know where models stand and whether alignment is improving.

Think beyond LLMs and computer code. Consider specialized AIs built to find loopholes, and hacks of more general systems: the tax code, financial regulations and democratic procedures.

Financial systems are the most likely first target, because their rules are designed to be algorithmically tractable. High-frequency trading is itself a hack. Imagine giving an AI all of the world’s financial laws, plus all the news and financial data, and the goal of finding profitable loopholes. I suspect large investment banks are already doing this. The results will be novel tricks that are legal but unintended and unwanted, some of which might break the financial system.

Tax loopholes are the next likely target, for the same reasons. For a while, AIs will identify potential loopholes, and human hackers, namely attorneys and accountants, will decide which are feasible.

Further out, expect hacks of regulatory, legislative and procedural systems, and of the broader economy.

Hacking is as old as humanity. We’re creative problem solvers and loophole exploiters. We manipulate systems to serve our interests and strive for more influence, power and wealth.

Still, no human pursues their interests without constraint. Even sociopaths are limited by the complexity of society and their own contradictory impulses. They worry about their reputation and punishment, and they have limited time. These human qualities have limited hacking.

Hacking changed as everything became computerized. Computers are uniquely hackable because of their formalism and complexity. Today, nearly everything is a computer, from cars and appliances to phones. Our social, economic and political systems, including taxation, finance and elections, all involve computers.

Until recently, hacking was exclusively a human activity. Finding a novel hack required expertise, creativity, time and luck.

AI hacking will change everything again. AIs aren’t bound by the constraints that limit people. They’ll think like aliens, and they’ll change hacking’s speed, scale, scope and sophistication, sometimes at our direction and sometimes on their own.

Speed is the easiest to see. A creative process that takes a human months or years could be compressed into hours or seconds.

Scale is next. Once AI systems start discovering hacks, they can exploit them at a scale we’re not ready for. We already see this with AI-generated slop, which is rampant on social media. AI bots post around the clock, sometimes overwhelming real human discussion. It’s hard to know how much of social media is still people talking to people. What looks like boisterous political debate may be bots arguing with other bots, artificially shaping what we think and what we think others think.

Scope makes hacks more dangerous. AIs already make decisions that affect our lives, decisions we once thought belonged only to humans. As AI systems grow more capable, society will hand them more decisions, and more important ones. Hacks of these systems will do more damage.

Finally, AI hackers are more sophisticated. They can hold more variables in working memory and generate more complex hacks. What might happen if you fed an AI the entire U.S. tax code? Would it figure out, without being told, that it’s smart to incorporate in Delaware and register a ship in Panama? Consider the Double Dutch Irish Sandwich, the strategy Apple and Google used to avoid paying U.S. taxes. It involves U.S., Dutch and Irish law and an offshore tax haven. How many loopholes will an AI find that we don’t already know about? Dozens? Hundreds? Thousands? We have no idea.

These hacks will largely be perpetrated by the powerful against the rest of us. AI is fundamentally a power-enhancing technology, and so is hacking. The more power you already have, the more a hack gives you. If you or I found a tax hack, we might make a few thousand dollars. If a large investment bank found one, it and its clients could make billions.

Our societal systems for dealing with hacks were built when hackers were human, and they reflect the pace of human hacking. We have no system of governance that can handle hundreds, let alone thousands, of newly discovered tax loopholes. We won’t be able to recover from an AI finding unanticipated but legal hacks of financial systems, operating at AI speed, scale, scope and sophistication. Hacking becomes a problem society can no longer manage.

Now, defense. AIs that find software vulnerabilities help defenders as well as attackers. Vulnerabilities can be patched, removing them permanently, or turned into signatures that security systems use to detect and block attacks. In theory, AI could identify and patch every automatically discoverable vulnerability before a product ships. This is rapidly becoming routine in software development. We call it vulnops. We can imagine a future where accidental software vulnerabilities are a thing of the past.

Deliberate vulnerabilities are different. There will be an arms race. AI will craft increasingly obscure back doors, and AI will find them. It becomes a contest between the speed of creation and the speed of patching, and between obfuscation and reverse engineering.

The same logic applies to broader systems. Yes, AI hackers might find hundreds of vulnerabilities in the existing tax code. But the same technology can evaluate potential loopholes in any proposed tax law or ruling. A legislator, a watchdog group or a reporter could take the text of a bill and identify every exploitable loophole before it passes. The difference is that, unlike software, knowing about a tax loophole doesn’t mean it gets patched. In theory, though, we can fix them before the rich and powerful exploit them. So maybe defense will come out ahead here, too.

That requires resilient governing structures that can respond quickly. It won’t help if updating the tax code takes years, or if a legislative hack becomes so entrenched that it can’t be fixed politically. Maybe a lobbyist put it there on purpose. Maybe it was discovered after the law passed, and now lobbyists want to keep it. Microsoft can patch the vulnerabilities it finds. Patching is much harder when legislatures have to do it. We need society’s rules and laws to be as patchable as our computers.

This is a hard problem of modern governance, and it goes well beyond AI. It’s the problem of building governing structures for the speed and complexity of the information age.

The umbrella idea is trust. What do we need for AI systems to be truly trustworthy? Capability isn’t enough.

AIs won’t be trustworthy if the companies controlling them spy on us or subtly manipulate us. I call this the friend vs. tool problem. Will we have AI agents, or AI double agents?

AIs won’t be trustworthy if they’re insecure. How do we know they haven’t been manipulated? Almost all AIs operate in adversarial environments, so someone will benefit from hacking them. Unless we know they’re secure, we shouldn’t trust their output.

And AIs won’t be trustworthy if they act like genies. We need to know they’ll perform tasks the right way, not just perform the tasks we ask for.

I’ve written extensively about the need for “integrous” AI, including how to think about the problem, what a research agenda looks like and what good laws and policies look like. I predict integrity will be the key security problem of this decade, just as confidentiality was the key problem of the last one. This applies to both AI and the internet of things.

The big shift is agency, which I think of as Web 3.0. Computers now affect the physical world directly and with growing autonomy. Sensors go from data sources to attack surfaces, and actuators go from outputs to attack capabilities. An integrity failure no longer means bad spreadsheet data. It means the wrong dosage, the wrong valve position or the wrong braking distance.

Integrity isn’t one thing. I break it into input integrity, processing integrity, storage integrity and contextual integrity. Each is complex and important, and each deserves its own talk. I’ve written about them, and I hope you’ll read it.

Much of this isn’t really an AI problem. It’s not a technical problem so much as a capitalism problem or a democracy problem.

The failures of late-stage capitalism and democracy in the information age both stem from the rich and powerful getting too good at hacking our social, economic and political systems. This is the core argument of my 2021 book.

Seen this way, AI is exacerbating existing problems. Human inefficiency has largely kept those problems in check, and that won’t work much longer.

So consider this a call to action. Technically, we need to understand how AIs hack systems, build systems that are resilient to hacking and build AIs that won’t act as genies. Politically, we need to learn to govern and regulate at the speed of technology. Otherwise, market failures will overwhelm our ability to govern them.

I said hacking is as old as humanity and that AIs will overwhelm our ability to deal with it. The solutions aren’t specific to AI, but AI makes them more urgent. We need to understand them, and we need to implement them.

After Last Week’s Great Week, a Very Bad Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

And that includes this week’s Logan Circle mass shooting, leading to one murder. As of 9am Friday, there were three homicides in D.C. this week, bring the total to 86* homicides this year. Last year, during the same time period, we had 119 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, there were 239 homicides during that same time period.

Both violent and property crimes declined this week, which is a bit of a bright spot.

2026 will be the first year since the last year of Biden’s presidency where homicides don’t decline by 33%.

Hoping for a much better week next week.

*Three of the 89 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence).

Rocket Report: Starship set for historic test flight; a century of Electron

Welcome to Edition 9.19 of the Rocket Report! Will something historic happen this weekend? No orbital rocket has ever been fully recovered with the intent of reusing all of its components. But that's just what SpaceX is going to try to do with a Starship launch on Friday, and an upper stage landing attempt 22.5 hours later on Saturday afternoon, local time. Ars will be on hand in Starbase, Texas, to provide coverage of it all.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Electron set for milestone launch. The next launch of Rocket Lab’s Electron vehicle is due to lift off from the Mahia Peninsula in New Zealand on November 14 at 5:30 UTC. This mission will serve as Electron’s 100th overall mission—a notable milestone for the small rocket that first flew in 2017, NASASpaceflight.com reports.

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Outlook email is still down

And GMU is on the Outlook system.  If you need to reach me, you can extrapolate my gmu address to my gmail address, or try Twitter, or use your imagination in other ways.  Sorry for the inconvenience!

(Although it seems my Outlook system just opened up, albeit with an incomplete email delivery so far!?)

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ULA delays to Sunday Vulcan rocket launch of 40 Leo satellites for Amazon

A United Launch Alliance Vulcan, equipped with six solid rocket boosters, stands ready for launch at Cape Canaveral’s pad 41. The rocket will carry 40 Amazon Leo satellites to orbit. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now.

Update: Launch has now slipped to Sunday at 12:11 p.m. EST (1711 UTC) due to a network communication issue between the ground and the rocket that could not be resolved in time for Saturday’s launch window.

United Launch Alliance will try again Saturday to launch its Vulcan rocket after a power interruption at a nitrogen plant scrubbed Friday’s attempt, further postponing the 215-foot-tall vehicle’s return to flight after solid rocket booster nozzles failed on two of its first four missions.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station is now scheduled for 12:32:30 p.m. EST (1732:30 UTC) Saturday, Nov. 14. ULA said the rocket and the 40 Amazon Leo satellites it carries remain healthy.

“The launch of a United Launch Alliance Vulcan rocket carrying the Amazon [LV-01] mission is delayed due to a power interruption in the Air Liquide gaseous nitrogen plant which resulted in the loss of their high-pressure pumps,” ULA said in a statement Friday morning. “Without confirmation of sustained commodity flow, the team has decided to realign the launch to the back-up opportunity.”

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage Saturday beginning 30 minutes prior to liftoff.

ULA announced the delay at 8:41 a.m. EST, a little more than four hours before the originally scheduled Friday liftoff and after the launch team had begun loading liquid oxygen into the rocket’s Centaur 5 upper stage, according to the company’s live mission updates. Gaseous nitrogen is used to purge and pressurize systems on the rocket and launchpad.

The one-day delay extends a nine-month wait since the most recent solid rocket booster malfunction prompted the U.S. government to pause its use of the non-reusable rocket for national security missions.

The now-delayed mission serves a private customer, Amazon, which has tasked ULA with ferrying 40 broadband internet satellites to expand its Leo constellation. It’s the first of 38 Vulcan launches Amazon has purchased.

ULA has not said how long Saturday’s launch window will last. The rocket will fly on a northeasterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

The U.S. Space Force’s 45th Weather Squadron is forecasting a zero percent chance of rain Saturday at the launch site with winds of 10 to 15 knots.

Should the countdown hit zero come Saturday, Vulcan’s first stage and side-mounted boosters will power it above Florida’s Space Coast, and two burns of its Centaur upper stage will propel it higher; Amazon’s Leo satellites will begin separating about 70 minutes after liftoff, roughly 285 miles up, in 16 separation events over about 25 minutes, according to a ULA mission diagram.

The launch will be the first flight of a redesigned booster nozzle and comes as an investigation into the most recent failure, which occurred Feb. 12 during a Space Force national security mission, is still open.

The nozzles of three of Vulcan’s six solid rocket boosters are visible beneath the mobile launch platform. Behind them are the two Blue Origin BE-4 engine nozzles. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now.

The launch will also be the first flight of a Blue Origin-manufactured BE-4 engine since the Jeff Bezos-owned space company saw one of its New Glenn rockets explode on the pad during a test in May. The New Glenn and Vulcan both use BE-4 engines, the latter employing two to power its first stage, producing more than 1 million pounds of thrust.

Ahead of the launch, ULA officials said Blue Origin had installed a retrofit kit for the rocket’s BE-4s, which Blue Origin qualified through hot-fire testing.

“Every flight generates data and every flight teaches us something,” ULA President and CEO Mark Peller said in a statement released by the company. “And we’re going to look to this flight to get some more useful data in a flight environment on the effectiveness of the corrective action that we’ve implemented.”

The Vulcan rocket at the ready to launch from SLC-41 will fly in a configuration ULA calls VC6L, referring to its use of six side-mounted solid rocket boosters built by Northrop Grumman and a 70-foot-long payload fairing. It will be the first Vulcan to fly with six boosters and the first to use a shorter version of its Centaur 5 upper stage built for low Earth orbit.

ULA says the rocket will carry more than 50,000 pounds of payload, a company record.

The Amazon Leo LV-01 mission will use a shorter version of the standard Centaur V upper stage that is tailored for missions to low Earth orbit. Image: ULA.

During the Feb. 12 Space Force mission, dubbed USSF-87, one of the Vulcan’s four solid rocket boosters appeared to suffer a burn-through of its nozzle — the bell-shaped exhaust outlet at the bottom of the motor — about 20 seconds after liftoff. Despite the malfunction and the rocket appearing to roll more than usual as it climbed, its main engines and upper stage compensated, and the mission’s payloads reached their planned orbit.

But it was the second such failure in four Vulcan flights. In October 2024, a nozzle came off one of the boosters on Vulcan’s second certification launch. ULA later traced that problem to a manufacturing defect in an internal nozzle part.

“Until this anomaly is solved, we will not be launching Vulcan missions,” Col. Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force’s portfolio acquisition executive for assured access to space, said two weeks after the February launch.

ULA said the subsequent investigation by the company, Northrop Grumman, the Space Force and other government agencies included laboratory materials testing and a full-scale test firing of the Graphite Epoxy Motor 63XL solid rocket booster utilized by Vulcan.

The team identified three credible causes and took steps to mitigate all of them, the company said, through changes to the nozzle’s design and to how it is built. ULA has not said what the causes were. The investigation will continue after the flight, and the Space Force will weigh its results.

“They’ve publicly stated that they want us to get through this first commercial flight and they want to review the data before they make a decision,” Peller said with regard to the Space Force pause on Vulcan’s use for national security missions.

On May 28, a New Glenn — which uses seven BE-4 engines — exploded during a static-fire engine test, heavily damaging its Cape Canaveral launch facilities. Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp later said the failure “originated at the main oxygen valve on one of the BE-4 engines.”

“That BE-4 engine and main oxidizer valve are common to the BE-4s we fly on Vulcan,” Peller told Aviation Week this month.

In that same interview, Peller acknowledged that “what we do here is not without risk.”

New Glenn remains grounded. In early November, Blue Origin submitted a filing to the Federal Communications Commission listing the operational window for “preflight” checkouts and the “launch” of a New Glenn rocket from Launch Complex 36 as beginning Jan. 15. The window, which also includes postflight work, extends through April 15, according to the filing.

The 40 satellites atop the Vulcan in its VC6L configuration are the largest batch Amazon has launched at once. The company has rocketed nearly 400 Leo satellites to orbit across 14 missions since April 2025, using a mix of Atlas 5, Falcon 9 and Ariane 6 rockets, but none since July.

That still leaves Amazon far behind SpaceX, which boasts more than 11,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, according to statistics maintained by astronomer Jonathan McDowell. The FCC expects Amazon to have its first-generation constellation of 3,232 satellites in orbit by July 2029.

“Vulcan will launch close to half our first-generation constellation, making it our primary workhorse over the next several years,” Melissa Wuerl, Amazon Leo’s director of launch systems, said in a statement.

The Vulcan set to fly Saturday was assembled in a new Amazon-funded hangar south of the pad that enables ULA to prepare two Vulcans at once. Amazon has said its second Vulcan mission could follow within weeks. Peller has said he eventually wants to see ULA launch Vulcan twice a month.

In another step toward serving Amazon’s long-term requirements, the mission makes use of what ULA calls a “second Vulcan Launch Platform,” which the company “dedicated and customized for Amazon Vulcan missions.”

“With a height of 179 feet, the platform includes more than four miles of pneumatic tubing, 24,000 feet of electrical cabling and 44 ordnance devices that fire to release the rocket at liftoff,” ULA said in a statement Thursday as its Vulcan rocket began a successful rollout to SLC-41.

The Economics of Rent Controls

I appear on Ryan Bourne’s excellent new podcast, The Economics of It. We discuss The Economics of Rent Controls drawing on my essay, Rent Control: The Ceiling Trap. It’s a very good discussion. Here’s one bit (edited slightly to remove some ums for reading and to fix a date I got wrong from memory):

RB: And in your essay you talk about some like truly insane ways that people are trying to signal to landlords that they’ll be good tenants in Oslo. I know you talk about that example.

Tabarrok: Yeah, so in Oslo they had rent controls for many years, but then they got rid of them in 1982 (fixed, AT), And there’s a great paper by Are Oust who looks at what happened. When the rent controls were in place, amazingly he found just like Friedman and Stigler found in San Francisco in 1906 that in Oslo the renters advertised I need an apartment, okay? Won’t you rent me an apartment? And as part of their advertisement they would say I’m willing to look after your cat, I’m willing to, you know, shovel the snow.

And on the other side the landlords would say, well, I’m looking for a good Christian. Uh you know, I’m looking for a uh a heterosexual, you know, single-family couple, whatever—these kinds of things. Sometimes literally advertised, sometimes this would happen, under the table. Um there would be things like you would have to pay uh months–sometimes years–you have to pay your rent years in advance. You know, all kinds of ways in which because of the shortage of apartments, it was the renters who had to advertise…

Even companies would say I’ve got a great employee. Please won’t you get them an apartment for me? Okay. 1982 the rent controls were lifted and suddenly the advertisements switch 100%.  So suddenly it’s no longer the renters who are advertising. It’s now the landlords I’ve got a  great apartment. And uh all of this stuff, are you willing to shovel the driveway, take care of my cat? It all goes away.

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Book talk today at Penn

 Here's the announcement emailed from Wharton:

"On Friday, November 13, 2026 at 12:15pm, the Business Economics and Public Policy Department welcomes Alvin E. Roth, Nobel Laureate in Economics and Professor of Economics at Stanford.
 
Professor Roth will be discussing his new book: "Moral Economics: From Prostitution to Organ Sales, What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work." 
 
Location: JMHH G06 
Friday November 13, 2026 from 12:15–1:15
Doors open at 12pm (and the first 125 attendees will receive a free copy of the book) "

Fugitive imagination

Two women wearing headscarves and a man with a child on his shoulders walking past, viewed through a large rectangular hole in a wall painted with a mural of a man in ancient Greek attire.

Wherever people are confined, displaced, silenced or made disposable, fugitive forms of knowledge and imagination emerge

- by Shahram Khosravi

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Brad and Noah discuss the reindustrialization of America

I was busy with rabbit stuff today, so my next post will be delayed until tomorrow! In the meantime, have another episode of Hexapodia, my revitalized podcast with Brad DeLong.

In today’s episode, Brad and I discuss the question of whether and how to reindustrialize the United States. Brad wrote a whole book on this topic, in fact. Basically, there are three main reasons we might want to boost American manufacturing:

  1. Geopolitical and military reasons: Having a supply chain for defense manufacturing and dual-use manufacturing that isn’t dominated by China would allow us to actually fight a war against China, if we ever had to do that. And since China has shown themselves perfectly willing to use export controls to bully other countries (including ours), we should develop supply chains that China can’t dominate, in order to avoid being bullied.

  2. Economic growth reasons: Having a robust manufacturing sector, in addition to a robust service sector, may make our country richer, by adding agglomeration and clustering effects.

  3. Economic equality reasons: We might want good high-paying blue-collar manufacturing jobs to help revitalize the American middle class.

Brad and I basically think that #3 is a dead end here — it’s not going to work. Especially with the advent of AI and AI-driven robotics, most manufacturing is going to be mostly automated; there will be no way for America to be competitive using human hands in factories when robot hands work so much better. That means the era of mass semi-skilled blue-collar factory employment is simply over and done.

But that doesn’t mean that manufacturing can’t create jobs. They just have to be different kinds of jobs — for example, local service jobs created by the money that the automated factories bring in to a town. That’s called a “local multiplier” effect, and it’s very powerful and important. Of course, it’ll require that the people who run the factories live near them, so they can spend their money locally.

Which leaves geopolitics and security as the main driver of reindustrialization. We note that the one country that we know of that has ever successfully reindustrialized was Ukraine, which built a strong drone and robotics industry out of necessity in order to fight off the Russian invasion. It’s not necessarily the most optimistic example for us to look to, but it may be the most important.

Anyway, Brad and I then spend a long time discussing what, exactly, America needs to reindustrialize. We come to the tentative conclusion that America really lacks only two important things — land use, and bank loans.

Land use, of course, is what the permitting bill currently moving through Congress is meant to address, and it’s important for a whole lot of other things besides manufacturing.

Bank finance seems to be important for manufacturing for a whole lot of reasons (expect more blog posts about this in the near future), and this is one area where America really struggles compared to other countries. My idea is to use America’s moribund megabanks as pools of capital for reindustrialization by giving them selective exemptions from the Dodd-Frank restrictions enacted after the financial crisis of 2008. More on that later.


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The U.S. Federal AI Observatory

Federal AI at a glance

41 agencies · 3,611 reported use cases · OMB 2025 Inventory. Portfolio size reflects reporting, not performance.

From Irakli Petriashvili of Tblisi, here is the site.

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Do not overrate zero-sum status-seeking

If people really preferred relatively higher income in a poorer society, then those born in Western Europe and the US would be saving up their money so they could live like kings in Africa. Very few people of middle- or upper-class status in poor countries would try to get to the West. Obviously, what we observe is precisely the opposite. Doctors from Africa will come to America in order to drive a cab if their license to practice medicine isn’t recognized. Research on Middle Eastern and African migrants to Europe shows that they aren’t the poorest of the poor, but are relatively well off for where they come from. There are a lot of stories about how terribly South Asian migrant workers are treated in the Arab Gulf, but this causes no problem in recruiting laborers who want to earn a higher income.

Here is more from Richard Hanania.

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Veterans Day

To read this letter, click here:

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Nvidia Employees Petition for Jensen Huang’s Return

Paresh Dave and Zoë Schiffer, reporting for Wired:

Some Nvidia employees are calling for Jensen Huang’s return even after his multiple reported extramarital affairs and abrupt resignation, according to internal correspondence reviewed by Wired.

An internal “suggestion box” post submitted before Huang’s resignation by a longtime engineer at Nvidia urged the company’s board to take employee sentiment into consideration prior to taking any action. The submission has attracted more than 1,600 comments since then, with several asking board members to find a way to bring back Huang.

“If you believe in the mission, bring back THE boss,” wrote one anonymous commenter.

Nvidia has over 42,000 employees (for now). The 1,600 who commented on this petition might just be the ones Huang was shtupping.

 ★ 

Heavy Snow in the Sierra Nevada; Heavy Rainfall in Texas Sunday

Owners, Not Renters: Raffi Krikorian on Open Source AI

Created by Claude with light editing by Tim O’Reilly

Raffi Krikorian, Mozilla’s CTO, joined Tim O’Reilly at our recent AI Codecon to talk about open source AI. Mozilla, of course, is the nonprofit that helped to define the open source revolution back in the late 1990s. Though its Firefox web browser was superseded as the market leader by Google Chrome, it played an essential role, along with Apache and the World Wide Web Consortium, in establishing the open standards of the web and keeping it from being dominated and enclosed by Microsoft, the dominant tech platform of that time. Now, Mozilla is one of the leading voices working to build an open, standards-based AI ecosystem.

Tim has long appreciated Raffi’s thoughtful, human-centered approach to technology. Raffi writes a newsletter called Owners Not Renters, whose message can be summed up by his statement that he doesn’t want a future with seven AGIs. He wants one with seven billion. He wants each of us to have an AI that we can trust with our secrets and that will look out for our interests, not an AI that’s optimized for the business model of its creators. In the early days of the web, we called the browser a user agent for a reason, Raffi said. It was on your side. It let you render pages however you wanted, managed your privacy and your cookies, and did its best to protect you from those who wanted to take advantage of web users. We need the same thing in the age of AI.

Raffi cited a paper in which researchers tested whether AI assistants could be trained to favor a company’s commercial interests over user welfare. In simulated flight-booking requests, 18 of 23 models recommended a more expensive sponsored option over a cheaper one more than half the time. It’s a hypothetical choice that we’ve seen play out time and time again, in industry after industry.

Open source AI is a big part of what it will take to get to Raffi’s vision. But sovereign AI loyal to each individual needs more than open source models alone. Raffi’s list of what has to be built around the model starts with memory, a place where your private data can live. It includes tool calling, so an agent can make a purchase or book a doctor’s appointment for you, the runtime environment where all of that runs, and the rules for how his agent talks to those working on behalf of others. It needs a harness. “That’s where evaluations happen. Guardrails happen, execution loops happen, tool calling happens, memory,” he explained. “All of that stuff is an opportunity, in my mind, of things that open source developers can be building.”

People hear the word “harness” and conclude that we need an open source version of whatever the proprietary labs are building. Tim asked Raffi whether a user-centered harness might do different things than those offered by the big labs. He agreed. The whole point of open source is for people to “scratch their own itch.” The ability to innovate without permission is the heart of the open source promise.

As a result, Mozilla wants to build a starting point. It aims to help the community define what an open memory protocol, a storage protocol, or authenticated tool calling with the right guardrails ought to look like. As Raffi noted, “Once we could define what those open standards look like, then a whole plethora of people can start playing and be interoperable. It’s basically. . .the internet all over again. We can build trillions of dollars of market cap on top of open protocols.”

Ease of use is still lacking, though. Mozilla’s 2026 State of Open Source AI report says open models are now within about 3% of the frontier, yet they don’t make it into production at the same rate as closed models. When Tim asked why, Raffi explained that open source is easy to release but hard to deploy. Developers still have to figure out hosting, provisioning, guardrails, and memory. With OpenAI’s or Anthropic’s API, you just hand over a credit card. What’s missing, he said, is the equivalent of a double-click installer for getting open source AI running inside an organization. But the companies that do the work to adopt open source AI are seeing big savings because open models are already good enough for most use cases. As Raffi put it, “You don’t need a Ferrari to manage your calendar.”

Raffi’s own daily agentic helper is Hermes running on GLM. He expects that Apple, Microsoft, or someone else will make this kind of agent into a consumer product in a couple of years, and that his mom will end up using it. For now, he said, we’re on the wrong part of the innovation curve, where you have to know how to code to get any of this working.

Tim disagreed. The industry goes through periods that are exciting for developers, creators, inventors, and companies trying to invent the future, and then it gets boring and a few big companies dominate it. We’re in the exciting part, he argued, before everything shakes out. As Raffi riffed, this is when we get to formalize what that future should look like.

The Clothesline Paradox

Tim wasn’t sure that we’ll need a commercially supported version of the kind of “roll your own” agentic rigs now favored by independent developers. After all, neither desktop Linux nor OpenOffice turned out to matter anything like as much as open source developers of the time expected. Instead, open source became the foundation layer for a new generation of web-based applications. It’s hidden way down in the guts of Google, Amazon, Meta, and countless other applications we rely on today.

This is already beginning to happen again with AI. The Mozilla report says that as much as a third of real-world usage is already on open models, although only 4% of model-layer revenue made its way to the open source ecosystem. Tim called the discrepancy a feature rather than a bug, and Raffi agreed that the stat is misleading. As Tim pointed out, many of the most important technologies “create more value than they capture,” and he used Steve Baer’s concept “The Clothesline Paradox,” from a 1975 article in Stewart Brand’s CoEvolution Quarterly, to explain why we’re good at measuring value capture but not so good at measuring value creation.

Baer pointed out that if you put your clothes in the dryer, the energy you use is measured and counted, but if you hang them on the clothesline to be dried by the sun, the energy saved disappears from our accounting. This argument resonated with Tim in the early days of his open source advocacy. As he noted, it’s always bothered him that nobody seemed to recognize that open source software didn’t “win” in the same way as proprietary software. It won by becoming the foundation everyone else builds on.

AI should be thought of as infrastructure

Raffi’s comment that we’ve made a category error by treating AI as a product fits right in with this line of thinking. If an AI company goes out of business, its product disappears. If it changes its business model, it may yank features you depend on. It’s not just individuals who need sovereign AI. Countries are passing laws about where data can be processed and how it moves in and out, and some of those requirements may not be compatible with the way the big labs plan to monetize their technology. What those countries are asking for is infrastructure. A road outlasts the contractor who built it. Raffi thinks open, downloadable models are the only way to provide long-lasting foundational infrastructure.

According to OpenRouter stats, Chinese models now supply more routed tokens than American ones. Tim asked whether we should worry about that. Raffi said the problem isn’t China but market concentration. The leading open models are from China. The leading closed models are all American. Access to either can be cut off by an executive order. We saw a version of that in June, when Anthropic temporarily suspended access to its Fable models to comply with export controls. It’s a problem that both the leading proprietary models and the leading open-weight models are each concentrated in a single country.

Diversity is one foundation of resilience. Raffi argues, for instance, that hospitals should all download a local model as a backup. None of us would run an important computer without an uninterruptible power supply, so why would a hospital doing triage with AI rely on a single intelligence provider? There are a lot of possible rug pulls. The government could restrict open source or restrict the frontier models. Having a backup plan is a good idea.

Safety is also part of the foundation. During the Q&A, an audience member asked about the recent sandbox escapes at OpenAI and Anthropic. Raffi joked that the best part was watching everyone try to one-up each other with accounts of how powerful and hard to control their models are. But he agreed that guardrails are actually a hard problem. Keeping personally identifiable information from leaking out through an LLM call means looking for much more than Social Security numbers. Eventually we’ll have models defending models, but the foundational frameworks for guardrails aren’t good enough yet. (NVIDIA’s safety platform announcement, released after Raffi and Tim’s conversation, suggests that better guardrails need to be implemented outside the model.)

In conclusion

Tim opened AI Codecon by noting that open and closed systems have always coexisted, and that the idea that one of them will win is a mistake. Closed systems, like Apple’s, Google’s, OpenAI’s, and Anthropic’s, can optimize for ordinary people and deliver value to billions. Open systems are better for innovation and sovereignty, and for pushing technology into new countries and new markets.

Raffi closed the conversation by observing that a well-tuned harness can improve model performance by as much as 20% on some coding tasks. You don’t have to be a machine learning engineer to make a difference at that layer.