So many answers to the Fermi question have been offered that we have a veritable bestiary of solutions, each trying to explain why we have yet to encounter extraterrestrials. I like Leo Szilard’s answer the best: “They are among us, and we call them Hungarians.” That one has a pedigree that I’ll explore in a future post (and remember that Szilard was himself Hungarian). But given our paucity of data, what can we make of Fermi’s question in the light of the latest exoplanet findings? Eduardo Carmona today explores with admirable clarity a low-drama but plausible scenario. Eduardo teaches film and digital media at Loyola Marymount University and California State University Dominguez Hills. His work explores the intersection of scientific concepts and cinematic storytelling. This essay is adapted from a longer treatment that will form the conceptual basis for a science fiction film currently in development. Contact Information: Email: eduardo.carmona@lmu.edu
by Eduardo Carmona MFA
In September 2023, NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft delivered a precious cargo from asteroid Bennu: pristine samples containing ribose, glucose, nucleobases, and amino acids—the molecular Lego blocks of life itself. Just months later, in early 2024, the Breakthrough Listen initiative reported null results from their most comprehensive search yet: 97 nearby galaxies across 1-11 GHz, with no compelling technosignatures detected.
We live in a cosmos that generously distributes life’s ingredients while maintaining an eerie radio silence. This is the modern Fermi Paradox in stark relief: building blocks everywhere, conversations nowhere.
What if both observations are telling us the same story—just from different chapters?
The Seeding Paradox
The discovery of complex organic molecules on Bennu—a pristine carbonaceous asteroid that has barely changed in 4.5 billion years—confirms what astrobiologists have long suspected: the universe is in the business of making life’s components. Ribose, the sugar backbone of RNA. Nucleobases that encode genetic information. Amino acids that fold into proteins.
These aren’t laboratory curiosities. They’re delivered at scale across the cosmos, frozen in time capsules of rock and ice, raining down on every rocky world in every stellar system. The implications are profound: prebiotic chemistry isn’t a lottery. It’s standard operating procedure for the universe.
This abundance makes the silence more puzzling. If life’s ingredients are everywhere, why isn’t life—or at least communicative life—equally ubiquitous? The Drake Equation suggests we should be drowning in signals. Yet decade after decade of increasingly sophisticated SETI searches return the same answer: nothing.
The traditional responses—they’re too far away, they use technology we can’t detect, they’re deliberately hiding—feel increasingly like special pleading. What if the answer is simpler, more systemic, and reconcilable with both observations?
Cellular Cosmic Isolation: A Synthesis
I propose what I call Cellular Cosmic Isolation (CCI)—not a single explanation but a framework that synthesizes multiple constraints into a coherent picture. Think of it as a series of filters, each one narrowing the funnel from chemical abundance to electromagnetic chatter.
The framework rests on four interlocking observations:
1. Prebiotic abundance: Chemistry is generous. Small bodies deliver life’s building blocks widely and consistently. Biospheres may be common.
2. Geological bottlenecks: Complex, communicative life requires rare conditions—specifically, worlds with coexisting continents and oceans, sustained by long-duration plate tectonics (≥500 million years). Earth’s particular geological engine may be uncommon.
3. Fleeting windows: Technological civilizations may have extraordinarily brief outward-detectable phases—measured in decades, not millennia—before transitioning to post-biological forms, self-destruction, or simply turning their attention inward.
4. Communication constraints: Physical limits (finite speed of light, signal dispersion, beaming requirements) plus coordination problems suppress even the detection of civilizations that do exist.
The result? A universe where the chemistry of life is ubiquitous, simple biospheres may be common, but detectable technospheres remain vanishingly rare and non-overlapping in spacetime. We’re not alone because life is impossible. We’re alone because the path from ribose to radio telescopes has far more gates than we imagined.
The Geological Filter: Earth’s Unlikely Engine
This is perhaps CCI’s most counterintuitive claim, yet it’s grounded in recent research. In a 2024 paper in Scientific Reports, planetary scientists Robert Stern and Taras Gerya argue that Earth’s specific combination—plate tectonics that has operated for billions of years, creating and recycling continents alongside persistent oceans—may be geologically unusual.
Why does this matter for intelligence? Because continents enable:
• Terrestrial ecosystems with high energy density and environmental diversity
• Land-ocean boundaries that create evolutionary pressure for complex sensing and locomotion
• Fire (impossible underwater), which enables metallurgy and advanced tool use
• Seasonal and altitudinal variation that rewards cognitive flexibility
Venus has no plate tectonics. Mars lost its early tectonics. Europa and Enceladus have subsurface oceans but no continents. Earth’s geological engine—stable enough to persist for billions of years, dynamic enough to continuously create new land and recycle old—may be a rare configuration.
Mathematically, this adds two probability terms to the Drake Equation: foc (the fraction of habitable worlds with coexisting oceans and continents) and fpt (the fraction with sustained plate tectonics). If each is, say, 0.1-0.2, their joint probability becomes 0.01-0.04—already a significant filter.
The Temporal Filter: Civilization’s Brief Bloom
But the most devastating filter may be temporal. Traditional SETI assumes civilizations remain detectably technological for thousands or millions of years. CCI suggests the opposite: the phase during which a civilization broadcasts electromagnetic signals into space may be extraordinarily brief—perhaps only decades to centuries.
Consider the human trajectory. We’ve been radio-loud for roughly a century. But already:
• We’re transitioning from broadcast to narrowcast (cable, fiber, satellites)
• Our strongest signals are becoming more controlled and directional
• We’re developing AI systems that may fundamentally transform human civilization within this century
What comes after? Post-biological intelligence operating at computational speeds? A civilization that turns inward, exploring virtual realities? Self-annihilation? Deliberate silence to avoid dangerous contact?
We don’t know. But if the detectable technological phase (call it Lext) averages 50-200 years rather than 10,000-1,000,000 years, the probability of temporal overlap collapses. In a galaxy 13 billion years old, two civilizations with century-long detection windows need to be synchronized to within a cosmic eyeblink.
This isn’t speculation—it’s extrapolation from our own accelerating technological trajectory. And acceleration may be a universal property of technological intelligence.
The Mathematics of Solitude
The traditional Drake Equation multiplies probabilities: star formation rate × fraction with planets × habitable planets per system × fraction developing life × fraction developing intelligence × fraction developing communication × longevity of civilization.
CCI expands this with additional constraints:
Ndetectable = R* × Tgal × [biological/technological terms] × [foc × fpt] × [Lext / Tgal] × C(I)
Where C(I) captures propagation physics—distance, dispersion, scattering, beaming geometry. Each term is a probability distribution, not a point estimate.
In 2018, Oxford researchers Anders Sandberg, Stuart Armstrong, and Milan Ćirković performed a rigorous Bayesian analysis of Drake’s Equation using probability distributions for each parameter. Their conclusion? When uncertainties are properly handled, the probability that we are alone in the observable universe is substantial—not because life is impossible, but because the error bars are enormous.
CCI takes this Bayesian framework and adds the geological and temporal constraints. The result: a posterior probability distribution that is entirely consistent with both abundant prebiotic chemistry and persistent SETI nulls. No paradox required.
What We Should See (And Why We Don’t)
CCI makes testable predictions. If the framework is correct:
1. Biosignatures before technosignatures
Upcoming missions like the Habitable Worlds Observatory should detect atmospheric biosignatures (oxygen-methane disequilibria, possible vegetation edges) before detecting techno signatures. Simple biospheres should be discoverable; technospheres should remain elusive.
2. Continued SETI nulls
Radio and optical SETI campaigns will continue to find nothing—not because we’re searching wrong, but because the detectable population is genuinely sparse and temporally fleeting.
3. Technosignature detection requires extreme investment
Detection of artificial spectral edges (like photovoltaic arrays reflecting at silicon’s UV-visible cutoff) or Dyson-sphere waste heat requires hundreds of hours of observation time even for nearby stars. Their absence at practical survey depths is predicted, not puzzling.
Importantly, CCI is falsifiable. A single unambiguous, repeatable interstellar signal would invalidate the short-Lext assumption. Multiple detections of artificial spectral features would refute the geological filter. The framework lives or dies by observation.
The Cosmos as Organism
There’s an almost biological elegance to this picture. The universe manufactures prebiotic molecules in stellar nurseries and delivers them via comets and asteroids—a kind of cosmic panspermia that doesn’t require directed intelligence, just chemistry and gravity. Call it the seeding phase.
Some of those seeds land on worlds with the right geological configuration—the awakening phase—where continents and oceans coexist long enough for complex cognition to emerge. This is rarer.
A tiny fraction of those awakenings reaches technological sophistication—the communicative phase—but this phase is fleeting, measured in decades to centuries before transformation or silence. This is rarest.
And even then, physical constraints—distance, timing, beaming, the sheer improbability of coordination—suppress detection. The isolation phase.
The cosmos isn’t hostile to intelligence. It’s just structured in a way that makes electromagnetic conversation between civilizations vanishingly unlikely—not impossible, just so improbable that null results after decades of searching are exactly what we’d expect.
Each civilization, then, is like a cell in a vast organism: seeded with the same chemical building blocks, developing according to local conditions, briefly active, then transforming or falling silent before contact with other cells occurs. Cellular Cosmic Isolation.
What This Means for Us
If CCI is correct, we should recalibrate our expectations without abandoning hope. SETI is not futile—it’s hunting for an extraordinarily rare phenomenon. Every null result tightens our probabilistic constraints and guides future searches. But we should also prepare for the possibility that we are, if not alone, then at least effectively alone during our detectable window.
This shifts the weight of responsibility. If technological civilizations are rare and fleeting, then ours carries unique value—not as a recipient of cosmic wisdom from older civilizations, but as a brief, precious experiment in consciousness. The burden falls on us to use our detectable phase wisely: to either extend it, transform it into something sustainable, or at least ensure we don’t waste it.
The universe seeds life generously. It’s indifferent to whether those seeds grow into forests or fade into silence. CCI suggests that the path from chemistry to conversation is longer, stranger, and more filtered than we imagined.
But the building blocks are everywhere. The recipe is universal. And somewhere, in the vast probabilistic landscape of possibility, other cells are awakening. We just may never hear them call out before they, like us, transform into something we wouldn’t recognize as a civilization at all.
That is not a paradox. That is simply the way the cosmos works.
Further Reading
Prebiotic Chemistry:
Furukawa, Y., et al. (2025). “Detection of sugars and nucleobases in asteroid Ryugu samples.” Nature Geoscience. NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission (2023) also reported similar findings from Bennu.
Bayesian Drake Analysis:
Sandberg, A., Drexler, E., & Ord, T. (2018). “Dissolving the Fermi Paradox.” arXiv:1806.02404. Oxford Future of Humanity Institute.
Geological Filters:
Stern, R., & Gerya, T. (2024). “Plate tectonics and the evolution of continental crust: A rare Earth perspective.” Scientific Reports, 14.
SETI Null Results:
Choza, C., et al. (2024). “A 1-11 GHz Search for Radio Techno signatures from the Galactic Center.” Astronomical Journal. Breakthrough Listen campaign results.
Barrett, J., et al. (2025). “An Exoplanet Transit Search for Radio Techno signatures.” Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia.
Technosignature Detection:
Lingam, M., & Loeb, A. (2017). “Natural and Artificial Spectral Edges in Exoplanets.” Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters, 470(1), L82-L86.
Kopparapu, R., et al. (2024). “Detectability of Solar Panels as a Techno signature.” Astrophysical Journal.
Wright, J. et al (2022). “The Case for Techno signatures: Why They May Be Abundant, Long-lived, and Unambiguous.” The Astrophysical Journal Letters 927(2), L30.
Technology Acceleration:
Garrett, M. (2025). “The longevity of radio-emitting civilizations and implications for SETI.” Journal of the British Interplanetary Society (forthcoming). See also earlier work on technological singularities and post-biological transitions.
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