What should I ask Michael Moritz?

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him, based around his new book Ausländer: One Family’s Story of Escape and Exile.  Mike of course was a pioneering venture capitalist through Sequoia, and before that had a distinguished career as a journalist, which included books on Chrysler, Apple (the first such book I believe?), and soccer coach Alex Ferguson of Manchester United.  Here is his Wikipedia page.

So what should I ask him?

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Reading List 07/04/26

The Star Spangled Banner by Percy Moran, via WorldHistory.org.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure and industrial technology. This week we look at households without homeowners insurance, crackdowns on AI chip smuggling, Japan’s two electrical frequencies, Meta’s AI compute business, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber!

Housing

Someone making the (somewhat dubious) point that fixed-rate mortgages have many similar impacts as rent control. The biggest difference, obviously, is that fixed-rate mortgages don’t disincentivize creating new housing supply the way that rent control does, but it’s interesting to see the similarities. “A homeowner with a 3 percent mortgage is, in practice, protected from the market in much the same way as a tenant in a rent-stabilized apartment. Both receive a valuable incumbent benefit. Both face a large penalty for moving. Both may remain in housing that no longer fits their needs because leaving would mean surrendering that benefit. And both systems impose costs on outsiders: prospective tenants in one case, prospective buyers in the other.” [Substack]

Apparently one in seven homeowners in the US don’t have homeowners insurance? [Insurance Dimes]

Manufacturing

It looks like we’re starting to see more crackdowns on smuggling AI chips into China from Taiwan. “Taiwan government agencies raided the offices of Super Micro Computer and several of its local affiliates, deepening an investigation into the alleged smuggling of Nvidia chips into China using the company’s servers.” [Japan Times]

Ford rehired a few hundred quality inspectors that it had tried to replace with AI. [BBC]

Sony will stop making physical discs for playstation games in 2028. [IGN]

The US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) denied Polestar, a brand spinoff of Volvo which is owned by Chinese company Geely, an authorization to sell cars in the US starting in 2027. Volvo, which is also owned by Geely, isn’t yet affected for some reason. “Polestar clearly didn’t see this situation coming. The automaker announced a reboot plan in February, which would’ve seen a slew of new product coming to the U.S. as the company grew the lineup. Global production of the Polestar 3 was moved from Chengdu, China, to Volvo’s Ridgeville, South Carolina, plant specifically to avoid the Trump Administration’s tariffs. The Polestar 3 currently rolls off the South Carolina assembly line alongside its platform mate, the Volvo EX90.” [The Drive]

China is building a factory to produce, among other things, personalized cancer vaccines. “The facility will house cell therapy research laboratories together with a production line of the company’s flagship product, LK101, a personalised cancer vaccine that analyses each patient’s tumour DNA to pinpoint the specific genetic mutations driving the disease. With AI, the company said the procedure could be completed in a day.” [SCMP]

Car companies are apparently switching to aluminum wiring due to the high costs of copper. [Reuters]

South Korea plans to spend $1 trillion on memory chip fabs and humanoid robots. “The most costly of the megaprojects involves a commitment by Samsung and SK Hynix of $585 billion to build new chip fabrication plants in the southwest provinces of South Korea, along with boosting semiconductor fab construction in the Seoul capital region, according to Reuters. The government’s goal is to double South Korea’s production of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) within five years.” [Ars Technica]

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal on the delays to a Micron memory chip fab that was supposed to start construction two years ago, but has been held back by, among other things, bats. “Mr. Schumer has described Micron’s site as “open fields,” but it includes hundreds of acres of wetlands and forestland that are nesting areas for endangered bats. This makes permitting and building more complicated. Trees can only be chopped down when bats aren’t nesting—i.e., from November to March. To obtain federal and state permits, Micron committed to spend $1 million to protect the bats and install 10 “bat houses.” The manufacturer also agreed to provide on-site child-care for workers and enter into project labor agreements with unions in return for $6 billion in federal largesse.” [WSJ]

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Tyler, Nabeel, and Jackson on French thinkers

Nabeel: (57:47) …For example, there’s a French thinker called Jacques Derrida. I probably should go and read him at some point, but I’m not entirely convinced there is a there there, and I don’t know anyone who swears by it. If Tyler told me, “Nabeel, you are missing a big piece of your life by not reading him,” I would go read him tomorrow. But I don’t have any of those people.

Tyler: (58:44) Lacan is my marginal case of “no there there.” So Derrida, I put in a fair amount of effort and did conclude, rightly or wrongly, that there’s no there there. So you can, in my opinion, write him off. Lacan, I keep on wondering. Smart people still will say, “This is amazing.” I’ve tried a bunch of times, but I haven’t given up. There’s a new Lacan book coming out later this summer and I’ll try it again. We’ll see. That’s my marginal “is there a there there” figure.

Nabeel: (59:13) Yeah. I think modern French thinkers put too much of a premium on sounding cool, or postmodern philosophy generally. I think it repays some effort to kind of grasp the core ideas, but it doesn’t repay making it your life’s reading or something.

Tyler: (59:26) Baudrillard is quite good and Foucault is extremely interesting. So I’m not against “the French” in this period, but if they keep on not making sense, I feel I’m educated well enough.

Jackson: (59:37) You have a lot of context.

Tyler: (59:38) That at some point I can strike the ledger.

Nabeel: (59:41) I do—Nowadays, I just put Foucault through GPT and I just have GPT explain it to me, and that’s going to be good enough for now.

Tyler: (59:50) The problem with Foucault, I think, is so much of the history is wrong in a quite mundane way, so there’s something very problematic about it. But the stuff—I think it’s in a way quite simple, almost too simple. And the fact that the current right has so latched on to Foucault is a sign that it’s simple. I don’t mean necessarily bad, but there are these structures and they’re trying to tell you what to do. And there’s something anonymous about that as well. It’s not just the individuals who form the conspiracy. It’s how a lot of the world thinks today.

Here is the longer discussion, already linked to.

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Saturday 4 July 1663

Up by 4 o’clock and sent him to get matters ready, and I to my office looking over papers and mending my manuscript by scraping out the blots and other things, which is now a very fine book.

So to St. James’s by water with Sir J. Minnes and Sir W. Batten, I giving occasion to a wager about the tide, that it did flow through bridge, by which Sir W. Batten won 5s. of Sir J. Minnes.

At St. James’s we staid while the Duke made himself ready. Among other things Sir Allen Apsley showed the Duke the Lisbon Gazette in Spanish, where the late victory is set down particularly, and to the great honour of the English beyond measure. They have since taken back Evora, which was lost to the Spaniards, the English making the assault, and lost not more than three men.

Here I learnt that the English foot are highly esteemed all over the world, but the horse not so much, which yet we count among ourselves the best; but they abroad have had no great knowledge of our horse, it seems.

The Duke being ready, we retired with him, and there fell upon Mr. Creed’s business, where the Treasurer did, like a mad coxcomb, without reason or method run over a great many things against the account, and so did Sir J. Minnes and Sir W. Batten, which the Duke himself and Mr. Coventry and my Lord Barkely and myself did remove, and Creed being called in did answer all with great method and excellently to the purpose (myself I am a little conscious did not speak so well as I purposed and do think I used to do, that is, not so intelligibly and persuasively, as I well hoped I should), not that what I said was not well taken, and did carry the business with what was urged and answered by Creed and Mr. Coventry, till the Duke himself did declare that he was satisfied, and my Lord Barkely offered to lay 100l. that the King would receive no wrong in the account, and the two last knights held their tongues, or at least by not understanding it did say what made for Mr. Creed, and so Sir G. Carteret was left alone, but yet persisted to say that the account was not good, but full of corruption and foul dealing. And so we broke up to his shame, but I do fear to the loss of his friendship to me a good while, which I am heartily troubled for.

Thence with Creed to the King’s Head ordinary; but, coming late, dined at the second table very well for 12d.; and a pretty gentleman in our company, who confirms my Lady Castlemaine’s being gone from Court, but knows not the reason; he told us of one wipe the Queen a little while ago did give her, when she came in and found the Queen under the dresser’s hands, and had been so long:

“I wonder your Majesty,” says she, “can have the patience to sit so long a-dressing?” — “I have so much reason to use patience,” says the Queen, “that I can very well bear with it.” He thinks that it may be the Queen hath commanded her to retire, though that is not likely.

Thence with Creed to hire a coach to carry us to Hide Park, to-day there being a general muster of the King’s Guards, horse and foot: but they demand so high, that I, spying Mr. Cutler the merchant, did take notice of him, and he going into his coach, and telling me that he was going to shew a couple of Swedish strangers the muster, I asked and went along with him.

Where a goodly sight to see so many fine horses and officers, and the King, Duke, and others come by a-horseback, and the two Queens in the Queen-Mother’s coach, my Lady Castlemaine not being there. And after long being there, I ’light, and walked to the place where the King, Duke, &c., did stand to see the horse and foot march by and discharge their guns, to show a French Marquisse (for whom this muster was caused) the goodness of our firemen; which indeed was very good, though not without a slip now and then; and one broadside close to our coach we had going out of the Park, even to the nearness as to be ready to burn our hairs. Yet methought all these gay men are not the soldiers that must do the King’s business, it being such as these that lost the old King all he had, and were beat by the most ordinary fellows that could be.

Thence with much ado out of the Park, and I ‘lighted and through St. James’s down the waterside over, to Lambeth, to see the Archbishop’s corps (who is to be carried away to Oxford on Monday), but came too late, and so walked over the fields and bridge home (calling by the way at old George’s), but find that he is dead, and there wrote several letters, and so home to supper and to bed.

This day in the Duke’s chamber there being a Roman story in the hangings, and upon the standards written these four letters — S.P.Q.R., Sir G. Carteret came to me to know what the meaning of those four letters were; which ignorance is not to be borne in a Privy Counsellor, methinks, that a schoolboy should be whipt for not knowing.

Read the annotations

Links 7/4/26

Links for you. Science:

The ‘Parasite of Parasites’ Has Been Discovered in the Tropical Forests of Borneo. A newly identified species of fungus attacks the famous “zombie mushrooms” that control ants.
My Peer Review of The 1%. I wanted to like QED’s new 1% ranking. I don’t.
The fall of the theorem economy. How AI could destroy mathematics and barely touch it
We Need to Retrofit the Planet. The Heat Wave Proves It.
More Than Half of CDC Centers Lack Permanent Leadership
Provision buried in controversial U.S. rule change would help people legally challenge ‘woke’ federal research
Science, Interrupted: The Lasting Impact of Terminated Grants

Other:

Three Hundred Fifty-Four Fireworks per Second. Organizers promise 850,000 fireworks in roughly 40 minutes over the National Mall this Saturday. I did what a mathematician does with a big number: I divided. It did not make the show look better.
Dead Country Fair
Falling Home Prices Are a Measure of Success, Not Failure
Trump wrecked America’s 250th in DC, but other blue cities will save it
Trump’s Huge Windfall Has Few Known Global Precedents. President Trump’s earnings in office are at a level once unimaginable for any leader of a liberal democracy, particularly a sitting American president.
Mayor Mamdani Delivers Address Marking America’s 250th Birthday
Companies Are Making Claude and Codex Talk Like Cavemen to Stop AI’s Soaring Costs
Trump administration moves to gut energy efficiency rules for home appliances
Moral Leadership
Dem Colorado gov nominee calls out DSA candidate for antisemitism comment
Colorado Governor Fires Officials Who Opposed Freeing Election Denier
IRS agrees to stop stealing workers’ pro-union decorations. The National Treasury Employees Union sued the agency earlier this month after multiple instances in which management confiscated and disposed of flyers and other decorations from employees’ workstations and communal bulletin boards.
U.S. warned Iran about Israel’s aims to assassinate leaders
The Incumbent Democrats at Risk of Losing to Progressive Challengers
DALLAS DING-DONG: Shocking moment member of Egypt World Cup team is violently pushed by US cop in fiery altercation while meeting fans
Altercation between Dallas police and Egpyt staff goes viral, DPD says they were called
Afraid of getting booed, Trump bails on World Cup
Elon, Elon, what a killer
New York Times Badly Misleads Readers on Trump Accounts
Abortion Has Always Been an American Tradition
The DC Bar Is Refusing to Investigate Chief Justice John Roberts Over a $10 Million Scandal
What Is Roberts Up To?
Trump bought as much as $5 million in Axon stock before ICE sought $220 million Taser deal
Of Course a Confederate Flag Showed Up at the Great American State Fair
Most Metro Fare Evasion Cases in D.C. Are Thrown Out
You Can’t Solve Half a Problem
The Great American State Fair feels rushed, simulated and oddly sterile
Centrists Concede Patriotism to the Right
Big Tech: AI Data Center Opposition Is An UnAmerican Criminal Conspiracy
Big, If True

Live coverage: Semiconductor manufacturing test bed to fly alongside Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 launch

A Falcon 9 rocket stands ready for launch in this file photo. Image: SpaceX.

Two semiconductor fabrication test beds will hitch a sub-orbital ride on the first stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that is set to launch another batch of Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral shortly after sunrise Sunday.

Liftoff of the Starlink 10-50 mission from Space Launch Complex 40 is currently scheduled for 6:50 a.m. EDT (1050 UTC). Space Force meteorologists predicted an 85 percent chance of favorable weather for launch.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage starting about an hour prior to the launch.

In addition to boosting 29 satellites for SpaceX’s internet service, the Falcon 9 first-stage booster will carry two manufacturing pods for Washington, D.C.-based startup Besxar Space Industries on an eight-minute, 19-second ride to space and back.

In October 2025, the company revealed it had booked 12 Falcon 9 flights to test the space-based semiconductor substrate manufacturing plants it calls ‘Fabships’.

In announcing its plans, Besxar said it would use the vacuum of space to produce ultra-pure substrates and precursor materials for the semiconductors essential for electronic devices.

“We’re reaching the limits of what can be built on Earth. AI data centers are straining against power and cooling limits, silicon is nearing its physical edge, and fabrication plants can’t achieve the vacuum or yields that next-generation materials demand,” Ashley Pilipiszyn, Founder and CEO of Besxar, said in a statement last year.

The workhorse SpaceX booster flies above the 100-kilometer-high Karman Line, considered to be the boundary of space, after it releases the second stage, which carries the rocket’s payload into orbit.

After stage separation, the first-stage booster continues to coast upwards. On a Starlink mission, a first-stage booster typically reaches an altitude of about 115 kilometres before gravity’s grip pulls it back to Earth and a landing on a drone ship in the ocean.

Besxar says these short-duration, sub-orbital flights with their rapid turnarounds are ideal for fine-tuning its manufacturing process. The test-bed Fabships, called the ‘Clipper Class’, are about the size of a microwave oven.

“With a regular cadence of launch and reentry missions, we can now iterate faster than ever—transforming space into a critical extension of America’s semiconductor supply chain,” said Pilipiszyn, who previously worked for OpenAI in its early days.

In an interview on the CNBC podcast ‘Manifest Space’, Pilipiszyn said the early Clipper Class Fabships will carry a variety of terrestrial-manufactured semiconductor wafers to see how they hold up against the rigor of a rocket launch and reentry.

“You can think of this similar to the ultimate egg drop challenge,” she said. “We want to ensure not only can we get wafers to space, do our manufacturing, but also that we’re able to successfully bring back wafers without any type of cracking or damage like that.”

Besxar has received support from graphics and AI chip maker Nvidia’s Inception Program for startups and SpaceX is listed as one of its investors.

The company originally planned to start Fabship testing aboard the Falcon 9 before the end of 2025.

Sunday’s Falcon 9 launch will be SpaceX’s 62nd Starlink delivery mission of the year as it continues the expansion of its internet from space service. Deployment of the stack of 29 v2 Mini Starlink satellites from the rocket’s second stage is slated to occur one hour, three minutes, and 31 seconds after launch.

Why we love this country

A Free Press feature for the 250th, here is my entry:

Tyler Cowen can’t decide, so he picks about 20 things instead.

My favorite thing about America is that I do not have a single favorite thing. We have the NBA (with a Toronto team too), the world’s best AI models, Alexander Calder sculptures, a few wonderful R.E.M. albums, southern Utah, the world’s best Constitution, lots of air-conditioning, sausage in southwest Louisiana, the infield fly rule in baseball, Winslow Homer, Sioux Plains drawings and Navajo blankets, the music of Chuck Berry and Brian Wilson, cheeseburgers, deep capital markets, the world’s best universities, the Museum of Modern Art, Chattanooga, Tennessee, lots of big airports, the north rim of the Grand Canyon, red cardinals and blue jays, about two dozen cities and towns named Paris, self-driving vehicles, not just one but two Dakotas, three branches of government (I hope not four), and the best set of immigrants in the world. And that is just scratching the surface.

The other contributors are notable as expected.

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The American age was the human age

“What other country would have done this?” — Daniel Inouye

“We don’t repeat this every day, but there are 33 words that are very sacred to all of us. We do the repetition a little differently but ‘We hold these truths to be self-evident. That all men are created equal. That they are endowed by their creator certain inalienable rights. That among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.’ It’s operational. Believe me.” — Daniel Inouye

China’s last imperial dynasty, the Qing, lasted 268 years. The Ming Dynasty that preceded it lasted just slightly longer, at 276, while the celebrated Tang made it to 289. Decades before each of those dynasties officially fell, they were shells of their former selves, with much of the land outside the control of the central government.

Barring abrupt catastrophe, the United States — which today marks a quarter of a millennium — will probably last as long as the Qing, the Ming, and probably the Tang. The country’s foundations are certainly shakier than when I was a child, but we have not yet entered an obvious terminal phase. The economy is still robust — our GDP remains on the smooth upward trend it has been on since we started measuring such things eight decades ago:

We cannot (or will not) build a functional passenger train network, but our AI industry is upending the world. Our health care costs twice as much as that of other rich nations, but our houses are huge and luxurious. Our cities are burdened with crime and disorder, but e-commerce delivers everything we need, straight to our door. The hour of the wolf is not yet upon us. It seems a safe bet that there will still be a United States of America in 2044, 2052, and probably 2065.

And yet we’ve reached the stage where we can peer through the fog and see how this grand experiment might be heading toward its conclusion. Much of the country has eased into a comfortable equilibrium of sclerosis; local veto power either prevents the construction of factories, housing, energy, transportation, and other infrastructure, or delays it by decades, or raises the cost to multiples of what other rich countries pay. The past has become more valuable than the future to many Americans; they cling desperately to the power to enforce stasis, preserving a facade of the country they grew up in at the expense of the very dynamism that made that country great.

That sclerosis seeps into everything else. Immigration, and even migration from city to city, becomes a vicious zero-sum fight over a fixed housing supply. Cities decay into museums of themselves. The industries of the future can only be built in America if they take up nearly no land, use nearly no energy, require very little bank financing, and are able to procure skilled labor as needed from abroad. Somehow the internet industry satisfied all of those conditions for three decades, but that time is done.

Our politics, meanwhile, has degenerated into movements defined more by who they hate than by any positive vision for the country’s future. Rightists are consumed by their hatred for immigration, leftists by their hatred for Israel. Even intellectual liberals — my own movement and social class, if only by process of elimination — increasingly subordinate other goals to their dream of lowering the social status of wealthy technologists.

To the extent that popular visions of a better America exist, they are rank and obvious fantasies — homogeneous harmony that rightists will never be able to create, or socialist plenty that socialism is incapable of delivering. There are plenty of workable, feasible future visions that would advance the frontiers of freedom, dignity, and prosperity; no faction of the engaged American public seems particularly interested in them.

Political discourse in America is still the baleful thing it became in the 2010s — a vicious free-for-all of social media influencers using hatred, division, fear, and misinformation to win the ear of the powerful political staffer, think tank, and journalist classes. Everything exists in the shadow of the almost-revolution of the late 2010s — an upheaval whose force has mostly receded but whose damage has yet to be fully assessed. Meanwhile, the country’s powerful enemies abroad are sharpening their knives.

If there is a reason to be pessimistic about America’s future, it’s that so few of the country’s citizens seem to believe in it. We used to be an unusually patriotic nation; now Americans are less proud of their nation than Europeans, Asians, or people in any other major world region:

The rightists who now dominate the GOP believe that America will only be valuable as a going concern if its old ethnic composition can be forcibly restored. The leftists who are surging among the Democrats, meanwhile, have a vision of America as an evil empire that could have come straight from old Soviet propaganda; this idea finds fertile ground among progressives who for a decade have mainlined the notion that America is “stamped from the beginning” with racism. How will the country be saved if no one thinks it’s something worth saving?

It would be foolish, of course, to predict that the U.S. is headed for the scrap heap within our lifetimes; uncountably many such predictions have made fools of the people who made them. The country is not facing mortal, imminent danger; its enemies are powerful but most of its wounds are self-inflicted. The United States may yet survive, with its territory and its constitutional democracy intact, to its 300th birthday and beyond.

Even so, it’s far from clear what a nation will even mean in those decades and centuries to come. The human race as a whole is set to dwindle, as fertility falls below replacement in every corner of the globe. At the same time, more and more of the thinking done on the planet will be done in data centers rather than within human brains. In that posthuman world, it’s not at all clear that humanity will even need the nation-state to provide the crucial organizing and coordinating role it played during the previous two and a half centuries.

So whether or not this is the beginning of the end for America, it’s the beginning of the end for something even bigger and more important — the human age. By that I mean the age when humanity, unassisted by any higher intelligence, broke free of the chains that had bound it for millennia and became something greater.

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Happy 4th, People!

Happy Fourth, TPM Readers. If you’re interested in hearing what I and three other TPMers love about this country check out this week’s edition of the podcast. This week Kate and I (The TPM Show with Josh and Kate) got together with Joe Ragazzo and Josh Kovensky (The TPM Social Club) for a combined episode where we discussed the news of the week, our July 4th hot takes and what we love about this country. If you’re a regular listener it’ll be on your phone or other device or you can watch or listen here.

Fantastical 4.1.15 Adds Calendar Mirroring

Flexibits:

Calendar Mirroring allows you to connect two separate calendars (like work and personal) so that events from one automatically show up on the other.

The best part? No event information is sent to Flexibits servers or saved outside of your device.

You can choose to show full event details or just block the time out as a mysterious, professional “Busy”. Your coworkers don’t need to know you’re getting a root canal, they just need to know you’re unavailable.

In Flexibits’s example scenario, the idea is that you have a personal calendar with important events that you want to mirror to your work calendar, to block the times for those events off — and you might just want them marked as “Busy” on your work calendar, rather than revealing the actual details.

I’ve been using this feature in beta for a few months and love it, even though my use case is seemingly simple. For recording episodes of Dithering, Ben Thompson and I have a shared Microsoft 365 calendar. (You can guess which of the two of us set that up by that fact.) Fantastical has long had terrific built-in support for Microsoft 365 accounts. So for me, those events have always just shown up in Fantastical. For me.

The problem is, my wife and I share an iCloud calendar, where we put events we want each other to know about. My Dithering recordings have never shown up there. Ben and I record on a pretty regular schedule, but it’s always been a minor irritation that my wife can’t see when I’m booked for Dithering. Fantastical’s new mirroring feature solves this perfectly. I set up a mirror to copy all events from my Dithering calendar to my family calendar, keeping the original event titles rather than obscuring them as “Busy”. (The titles all just say “Dithering”.)

The icing on the cake is Fantastical’s longstanding “Combine identical events” preference setting. Because I have that setting on, I don’t see duplicate “Dithering” events — one from my Dithering calendar, and another from my family calendar. I just see one event for each scheduled recording, with a striped dual-color swatch that indicates that this one event exists on both calendars. It’s just perfect.

One more thing: Also somewhat recently, Fantastical added support for Anthropic’s MCP to integrate your calendaring with Claude Desktop. David Sparks made a short demo video that shows it off. I don’t really use Claude so this didn’t hit for me personally, but it seems cool enough that it made me at least consider, for a moment, switching from ChatGPT to Claude. Then I remembered what the Claude app is like.

 ★ 

★ Claude’s Criminally Bad Electron Mac App Is an Inside Job

Anthropic released the first version of the Claude “desktop” app for MacOS in October 2024 — an Electron clunker that did not impress UI designers. When it came out, I wrote:

ChatGPT’s native Mac app, on the other hand, is a truly native Mac app. It looks like a Mac app and feels like a Mac app because it really is a Mac app. I’ve liked it ever since it launched back in May, and it keeps getting better. And I keep using it more and more as my go-to resource for answering questions.

I asked Claude, “What is the best way to engineer a native Mac app? What frameworks and developer tools should one use if the goal is a great Mac experience?” Claude’s answer started by positing it as a decision between SwiftUI and AppKit. Perhaps Anthropic’s Mac engineers should have asked Claude this same question before they built this turd of an Electron app.

In March of this year, linking to Anthropic’s announcement that Claude Code and Claude Cowork can take control of your Mac to accomplish agentic tasks, I returned to the same question:

The Claude Mac client itself remains a lazy Electron clunker. If Claude Code is so good I don’t get why they don’t prove it by using it to make an even halfway decent native Mac app.

I’m not the only one who has pondered this. Drew Breunig wrote “Why is Claude an Electron App?” in February this year:

On the surface, this ability should render Electron’s benefits obsolete! Rather than write one web app and ship it to each platform, we should write one spec and test suite and use coding agents to ship native code to each platform. If this ability is real and adopted, users get snappy, performant, native apps from small, focused teams serving a broad market.

But we’re still leaning on Electron. Even Anthropic, one of the leaders in AI coding tools, who keeps publishing flashy agentic coding achievements, still uses Electron in the Claude desktop app. And it’s a slow, buggy, and bloated app.

So why are we still using Electron and not embracing the agent-powered, spec driven development future?

For one thing, coding agents are really good at the first 90% of dev. But that last bit — nailing down all the edge cases and continuing support once it meets the real world — remains hard, tedious, and requires plenty of agent hand-holding. [...]

For now, Electron still makes sense. Coding agents are amazing. But the last mile of dev and the support surface area remains a real concern.

I’m with Breunig up until the point where he accepts coding agents struggling with the final 10 percent as a justification for choosing Electron to create a Mac app. Plenty of people — individuals and teams alike — are using Claude Code to create terrific new native Mac apps. Just among my friends, Glenn Fleishman, Lex Friedman, and Jason Snellman, have all in recent months used not just AI coding assistants in general, but Claude Code specifically, to create genuinely native Mac apps that meet their own personal high standards for Mac-assedness, forged through decades of literally professional Mac snobbery. A comprehensive catalog of Mac-assed apps made with the assistance of Claude Code, would, I suspect, be remarkably long.

The struggle with the last 10 percent is unrelated to AI coding. It’s the nature of all software engineering. There’s a well-known adage that Wikipedia names the “Ninety-Ninety Rule”, attributed to Tom Cargill of Bell Labs:

The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time.

Cargill’s mathematically humorous formulation resonates because it not only explains why the final 10 percent consumes half the time, but also why software projects tend to take twice as long as expected. This universal truth holds whether the code is human-written, AI-generated, or a mix of both.

Breunig gets closer to the truth in a postscript, linking to the Hacker News thread discussing his post. The top-rated comment in the HN thread is from Boris Cherny, who works at Anthropic on the Claude Code team. Cherny wrote:

Boris from the Claude Code team here.

Some of the engineers working on the app worked on Electron back in the day, so preferred building non-natively. It’s also a nice way to share code so we’re guaranteed that features across web and desktop have the same look and feel. Finally, Claude is great at it.

That said, engineering is all about tradeoffs and this may change in the future!

I would rephrase the guarantee that “features across web and desktop have the same look and feel” as guaranteeing that the Mac app is restrained by the limits of the web and cut off from the breadth of idiomatically native functionality provided by the Mac’s native frameworks. Electron guarantees that an app feels just as wrong on all platforms. But the more relevant tidbit is this sentence: “Some of the engineers working on the app worked on Electron back in the day, so preferred building non-natively.” So it’s not that Claude somehow prefers Electron, but that “some of the engineers” at Anthropic do.

Some is doing some heavy lifting there, given that “some of the engineers” includes Felix Rieseberg, currently Anthropic’s engineering lead for Claude Cowork and Claude Code Desktop, and previously engineering lead for the Claude apps for MacOS and Windows. Rieseberg didn’t merely “work on Electron back in the day”. He is one of the principal people responsible for creating Electron, and remains today one of three members of the Electron project’s Administrative Working Group that “oversees the entire governance and project”. He literally wrote the book on Electron.

Felix Rieseberg, quite obviously, is the answer to the question why Claude is an Electron app. It’s like wondering why all the screws in a building were hammered into the walls, and then finding out that the guy who oversaw construction founded and co-owns the world’s biggest hammer manufacturer. Windows uses Philips head screws, Linux uses hex screws, and MacOS requires Torx (of course) — but a hammer works the same way with all screws. That’s Electron. That’s Rieseberg’s baby.

Rieseberg, it turns out, hasn’t only had a hand in Claude being an Electron app. Per both his personal home page and LinkedIn profile, before joining Anthropic he spent over two years as the engineering manager for the desktop team at Notion, whose client for Mac is a massive 518 MB Electron app and a notoriously non-native experience.1 Before Notion, Rieseberg spent 2016–2021 “as a Senior Staff Engineer and Engineering Manager at Slack, where I got to support a team of amazing C++ engineers building the cross-platform desktop framework Electron — as well as Slack’s desktop apps for macOS, Windows, and Linux.”2

Finding out that one guy — who is a senior Electron maintainer — has led the teams for the desktop clients for Slack, Notion, and now Claude is like discovering that it was one guy — whose family business was a distillery — who helmed the Titanic, piloted the Hindenburg, and then served as air traffic controller for Amelia Earhart.


  1. Notion, it’s worth pointing out, has perhaps seen the error of their ways. Apple prominently featured Notion during the Platforms State of the Union technical keynote at WWDC last month, saying, “And apps that previously used cross-platform or web technologies like Notion are migrating their user interface to SwiftUI because they want a level of performance and UI consistency that other technologies can’t deliver.” This, just one year after Rieseberg left for Anthropic. Perhaps Claude will similarly seek to wash the Electron stink off the Claude app eventually. I suspect an Electron codebase is like sap, though — sticky, dirty, and harder to wash off the longer you wait. ↩︎

  2. Before getting promoted to engineering manager in charge of all of Slack’s “desktop” apps, Rieseberg started at Slack as engineering team lead for Windows, which offers an inkling as to his platform taste. ↩︎︎

Saturday assorted links

1. The pending evolution of Chile’s school age population.

2. Markets in everything those new service sector jobs.

3. Survey on the economics of caste.

4. J.D. Vance on Milton Friedman.  And Mamdani on Hayek.

5. “Firms that adopt AI heavily grow headcount 10% over two years following adoption.

6. Browse all Criterion films.

7. Does a damage accumulation model explain different aging rates across the species?

8. Fast Grants for British progress.

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July 3, 2026

And on July 4, 1776, the Second Continental Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence, declaring: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.”

For all the fact that the congressmen got around the sticky little problem of Black and Indigenous enslavement by defining “men” as “white men,” and for all that it never crossed their minds that women might also have rights, the Declaration of Independence was an astonishingly radical document. In a world that had been dominated by a small class of rich men for so long that most people simply accepted that they should be forever tied to their status at birth, a group of upstart legislators on the edges of a continent declared that no man was born better than any other.

America was founded on the radical idea that all men are created equal.

What the founders declared self-evident was not so clear eighty-seven years later, when southern white men went to war to reshape America into a nation in which African Americans, Indigenous Americans, Chinese, Mexicans, and Irish were locked into a lower status than white Americans. In that era, equality had become a “proposition,” rather than “self-evident.”

“Four score and seven years ago,” Abraham Lincoln reminded Americans, “our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.” In 1863, Lincoln explained, the Civil War was “testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.”

It did, of course. The Confederate rebellion failed. The United States endured, and Americans began to expand the idea that all men are created equal to include Black men, men of color, and eventually women.

But just as in the 1850s, we are now, once again, facing a rebellion against our founding principle as a few people seek to reshape America into a nation in which certain people are better than others.

The men who endorsed the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776, pledged their “Lives, [their] Fortunes and [their] sacred Honor” to defend the idea of human equality. Ever since then, Americans have sacrificed their own fortunes, honor, and even their lives, for that principle.

Lincoln reminded Civil War Americans of those sacrifices when he urged the people of his era to “take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

Words to live by in 2026.

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Resting on the Rule of Law

On Independence Day Weekend ...

So I’m typing this on July 3, a cup o’ coffee to my right, a bin of pastries feet away. It’s Friday, and the weather is lovely, the scenery is gorgeous. I am alive and healthy and blessed with a great family, an enjoyable career, ample friends and all the Blind Melon music one needs.

And yet …

It’s a challenge to celebrate Independence Day the way I used to. Not all that long ago, this was a Top 5 holiday for me, behind Halloween (free candy, bruh) but way ahead of Christmas (I’m Jewish) and New Year’s Eve (I rarely drink). I just always loved the spirit of it all. The fireworks, the flags, the pride. Dating back to my grandparents’ arrival from Germany in 1939, this nation has done so much for me and my people. It has served, truly, as a land of hope, dreams, opportunity, glory. Has it been perfect? Hells, no. Far from it. But it’s home, and I always felt as if, deep down, we were striving for something better. Maybe that was naive, but it’s how I felt.

Well, the past decade has been a bear. Donald Trump is a toxin. His enablers are clowns. There is a jarring willingness to not merely look the other way, but embrace corruption; to enable cruelty; to support greed atop greed atop greed. A country that once personified the Neil Diamond anthem, “America” now identifies more with this little Dennis Leary classic. We have become intellectually lazy and emotionally indifferent. We’re far more comfortable staring at our phones than talking to a stranger on the bus. We have all the technology one could need, but use it mainly to watch inane videos about sports betting, poop shapes and Reece, the Dallas Cowboy cheerleader. There are so many problems we can solve, but … we don’t. We lack the bandwidth. The interest. The compassion. The attention span.

It is heartbreaking and exhausting. As my friend Ellie recently noted, modern happiness comes with a cap.

Our happiness is capped.

But!

But!

But!

Independence Day matters, and what it symbolizes matters even more. Democracy is not free and it’s not easy. We are a land of 330 million, many of whom (clearly) are easily susceptible to the conman blusterings of an orange cult leader.

But this is what dwelling in such a large and riveting land comes with. We are required, by patriotism, to fight. We are required to march forward. We are required to remind folks that, no, this is not normal and, no, this is not the way it should be. A president making more than $2 billion during his time in the White House is garbage. A president spewing racist, homophobic, sexist bullshit from his pulpit is garbage. A president with a life history of swindling the masses is garbage.

We cannot allow ourselves to permanently become this.

Seriously, we cannot.

So, to hell with it. Fire up the grille. Eat your burgers. Wear your stars and stripes. Be proud of who you are, where you live and what—historically—it means.

Then fight like a motherfucker to preserve America’s purpose.

It’s worth the effort.

Happy 4th.

— Jeff

How Platform Tools Affect Technical Analysis in Currency Trading?

If you are trading currencies via MetaTrader 5 platforms, technical analysis is crucial. Even if you have 2 traders studying the same chart, that can reach different conclusions depending on how well the platform supports data access, analytical features and execution.

Why do MT5 platform tools matter for technical analysis?

Technical analysis always depends on 3 major core inputs. These are price data, charting tools, execution feedback and so on. Broker implementation helps determine data quality, execution speed, along with the available instruments, spread behavior during analysis and anything of that nature.

MT5 is known for offering timeframes from a minute to monthly charts. That way, you can identify the long term trends, refine entries and also get time precision execution, too. It’s imperative to have access to such data, because you can avoid false breakouts, missed trend reversals, incorrect support/resistance levels and so on.

Additionally, MT5 is known for supporting various chart types, such as candlestick charts, bar charts, line charts and tick charts. Tick-level data is important for scalpers, because it will show liquidity shifts, micro price movements, along with spread widening movements.

Technical indicators and platform customization

The great thing about MT5 as a platform is that it offers over 80 indicators, be it Bollinger bands, MACD, RSI or moving averages. It also allows custom indicators thanks to MQL5 scripting. Indicator accuracy always depends on the data feed however. And even if there are small differences in the bid/ask spread, that can shift indicator readings.

What you will notice is that MT5 brokers  have plenty of automation features. Broker conditions will affect performance, because execution latency impacts the EA results, spread variation will charge strategy profitability and so on. That’s the reason why you want a strategy that works well. Some might do well in demo trading, but in live trading it fails because there are broker differences.

Order execution tools and how they influence technical analysis

Technical analysis assumes that whenever the price reaches a level, execution will happen at that level. But MT5 brokers offer either market execution or instant execution. The first one means orders get filled at the best price and there can be some slippage.

If the analysis says one thing but the execution occurs at a value slightly larger or smaller, then the technical model is altered. Hence the reason why execution quality is a part of technical analysis and not separate from it.

Depth of market and the order flow tools

One of the upsides of MT5 is the fact that it has a depth of market features. That shows the buy orders, sell orders, but also the liquidity clusters. That’s very important and useful for identifying support/resistance zones, understanding institutional interest areas and anticipating short-term reversals. One thing to note is that not all brokers will provide the full DOM data. Some will only show the aggregated liquidity or limited pricing depth, something to keep in mind here.

Another important aspect of MT5 is that it has a built-in strategy tester, which makes it easy for traders to test EAs using historical data, simulate trades and optimize parameters. There is a problem here, because there can be data quality bias. Backtesting accuracy will depend on the historical tick data quality, spread modeling, execution assumptions and so on. When the data is low quality, then the back tests are very optimistic and the strategy performance is very misleading.

Spreads, technical levels and liquidity

Spreads will impact technical analysis directly because they are determining the entry precision, stop-loss placement, along with breakout validity. During the news events, spreads can widen, and support/resistance levels can be violated artificially. That will bring some false breakouts, along with stop-loss hunting appearance, as well as misleading chat patterns.

Even on MT5, brokers will source liquidity differently. There are ECN/STP brokers that have tight spreads and a more realistic chart. And then there are market makers, which are smoother, but with a less transparent pricing.

Most people think that indicators are universal, but there are differences. And if there are differences, even the smallest ones will impact entry timing, trade frequency, along with a win rate of strategies. In the end, that’s excellent, and it can provide a much-needed sense of consistency, which is crucial to keep in mind.

Automation and its impact on technical analysis

MT5 does allow algorithmic trading via expert advisors. That transforms technical analysis into indicator-driven trading bots, automated chart pattern detection, as well as rule-based execution systems. But there can be a broker impact on automation. That means execution speed will determine the EA profitability, server latency affects the scalping bots and spread variability will affect stop-loss login. That means automated technical analysis is highly broker-dependent.

Broker-specific differences

MT5 tends to be standardized, but brokers still have the ability to modify a lot of things. Those can include everything from spreads to the execution model, symbol pricing, available instruments, data feed sources and so on. There can be differences between brokers like different candle shapes, indicator signals or volatility behavior. That’s why most professional traders tend to use multiple broker charts for confirmation, just to be on the safe side.

If you are going to use MT5 for technical analysis, then it’s a good idea to compare broker charts and focus on execution quality, not just the indicators. On top of that, avoid relying on a single indicator and use demo accounts strategically. If possible, backtest with some real tick data. That way, it will provide a much better and more consistent result, along with cohesive solutions you can rely on.

Conclusion

We believe it’s highly commended to focus on technical analysis, using the right tools. Thankfully, platform tools can be very effective, and they can deliver an outstanding return on investment. It’s highly recommended to take your time, implement these solutions properly, and the outcome can be second to none. Just make sure that you rely on the right tools and work with a professional broker. Even if MetaTrader 5 and other tools offer a standardized, powerful environment, it’s the broker that will determine the realism, accuracy and speed of the technical analysis.

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Impaired Driving Is a Public Health Problem Statehouses Still Treat Too Narrowly

Every 44 minutes, someone in the U.S. dies in a crash involving a drunk driver. Most statehouses still respond to that fact the same way they did thirty years ago: tougher penalties, more checkpoints, another round of DUI statutes. It’s not that this approach is wrong, exactly. It’s that it’s incomplete. Impaired driving behaves like a public health problem — tangled up with addiction, mental health, road design, and who has a safe way home at 1 a.m. — and treating it only as a law-and-order issue leaves a lot of prevention on the table.

The Numbers Tell a Story Lawmakers Keep Missing

Drunk driving killed 11,904 people in 2024, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. That’s about 30% of all traffic deaths that year. It’s also the third straight year the number has ticked down, which is genuinely good news. But “down” is a low bar when you’re still talking about roughly one death every 44 minutes.

A Death Every 44 Minutes

Here’s the part that rarely makes it into a floor speech: this isn’t spread evenly across casual drinkers who made one bad decision. NHTSA and industry researchers put the number at nearly two out of three drunk-driving deaths involving a driver with a blood alcohol concentration of .15 or higher — almost double the legal limit. That’s a different category of driver. Often it’s someone with untreated alcohol use disorder, someone who’s been arrested before and, statistically, will be again — and whose choices eventually leave other families sorting through claims involving intoxicated drivers  long after the criminal case has wrapped up.

Add the CDC’s numbers and the picture gets bigger still. An estimated 15.5 million adults say they’ve driven under the influence of alcohol in the past year, and millions more admit to driving after using cannabis or other drugs. Arrests, by comparison, catch a sliver of that.

Why “Just Enforcement” Isn’t Working

Checkpoints and license suspensions aren’t useless. They just aren’t enough on their own, and the fatality numbers have plateaued for years  despite decades of tougher DUI laws.

The Hardcore Offender Problem

A lot of state DUI codes are still written as if every offender is a first-timer who needs a scare, not a system. Meanwhile a small group of chronic, high-BAC offenders is doing outsized damage. Suspend the license, they drive anyway. Rearrest them, and the underlying addiction is still sitting there untreated when they get out. Without screening and treatment built into sentencing, that loop just keeps running. A public health approach goes after the addiction itself, not only the traffic offense sitting on top of it.

What a Public Health Approach Actually Looks Like

Public health thinking is about stopping harm before it happens rather than mopping up after. Applied here, that looks like a handful of concrete changes:

  • Screening and treatment requirements for repeat offenders, not just fines and points
  • Ignition interlocks extended to first-time offenders with elevated BAC, not saved for repeat cases
  • Real funding for alternatives — late-night transit, subsidized rideshare — especially where crash rates run highest
  • Education in schools and workplaces that covers drug impairment too, since cannabis is showing up in more fatal crashes as legalization spreads

Treating Alcohol Use Disorder, Not Just Punishing DUIs

A handful of states have tried “24/7 sobriety” programs — frequent testing paired with treatment referrals instead of straight jail time. South Dakota and North Dakota saw real drops in repeat arrests after adopting versions of this. But fewer than half of states run anything similar at scale, and the treatment funding tends to be the first line item cut when budgets tighten.

Investing in Transportation Alternatives

About a third of alcohol-impaired deaths happen in rural counties, where there’s often no late-night transit and thin rideshare coverage. Giving someone who’s been drinking an actual way home — not just a law telling them not to drive — isn’t a nice-to-have. It’s the infrastructure the policy depends on to work.

The Technology States Are Slow to Require

Federal rules now push automakers toward building impaired-driving detection into new vehicles, a change the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety says could eventually save more than 10,000 lives a year. States don’t have to wait for Washington’s timeline. They could require interlock or detection systems in fleet vehicles, rental cars, and cars owned by repeat offenders right now. Almost none have.

When Prevention Fails: The Legal Aftermath

No policy, however well designed, is going to prevent every crash. That’s why the civil justice system still matters as a backstop. Families dealing with the aftermath of an impaired-driving crash usually need to figure out their legal options fast — what compensation looks like, how fault gets established, what the timeline is. The same negligence principles apply whether the victim was another driver, a passenger, or a pedestrian struck by an impaired driver . That entire process exists precisely because the prevention systems above still have gaps.

A Path Forward for State Legislatures

Impaired driving sits where public safety, addiction treatment, transportation policy, and vehicle technology all overlap. Treat it as a single-lane criminal justice issue and you get single-lane results: incremental drops, plateaus in enforcement, the same offenders cycling back through the same courtrooms.

None of this means going soft on drunk driving. It means admitting that punishment without treatment only solves half the problem, and that a law without a ride home isn’t much of a deterrent at 2 a.m. States that pair screening with interlocks, fund rural transit, and get ahead of vehicle safety technology are the ones likely to move the fatality numbers further than the last decade of enforcement alone managed to.

The data’s public. The tools already exist. What’s missing, in most statehouses, is the will to treat impaired driving as the layered problem it’s always been.

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The Week Observed: July 3, 2026

What City Observatory Did This Week

A $650 million cash grab.  The Prosperity Council appointed by Oregon Governor Tina Kotek just released its long awaited report.  But rather than addressing the real factors that lead to long term prosperity, the business people that dominate the council have come up with a set of recommendations that do less to lay a foundation for our future Oregon’s economy than they do to help out big businesses and wealthy individuals.

It’s a cash grab bonanza for a few—the total cost is likely about $650 million in lost revenue in the upcoming 2027–29 state biennial budget:

  • Estate Tax Cut: $400 million (benefiting the top five percent of Oregon estates)
  • Corporate Activity Tax: $100 million cut (benefiting the top 6 percent of all Oregon businesses)
  • Extending Trump’s “QSBS” break to Oregon taxes: $56.6 million; 94 percent of this tax break goes to households with incomes over $1 million.
  • Reinstating an R&D tax credit: At a likely cost of $90 million, revive a sunsetted 15 percent tax credit for research and development.

The proposed tax cuts are unlikely to do anything to benefit the Oregon economy or help Oregonians wrestling with the growing cost of living, and they threaten to further imperil the state budget which will be coping with massive cuts to education, food assistance and health care due to Trump’s “Big Beautiful Act.”

Wrong before, wrong again, conservative critics crying wolf about taxes and the economy.   For decades, conservative economists like Eric Fruits have warned that raising taxes will doom Oregon’s economy. We’ve heard this song before. In 2010, amidst a brutal recession, voters ignored these dire forecasts and approved Measures 66 and 67, raising taxes on high earners and corporations to protect public services.

Critics spectacularly predicted the tax hikes would “permanently impair” job growth, costing up to 55,000 jobs. Instead, Oregon ran the experiment and flourished. By 2018, the state added 300,000 jobs—outpacing the nation—and later recorded the fifth-fastest per capita income growth in the country. The data is clear: maintaining vital public services and investing in communities, not slashing taxes, is what matters to a vibrant Oregon economy.

Oregon’s minimum wage is a prosperity strategy.  Governor Tina Kotek is right to celebrate Oregon’s increased minimum wage: Minimum wages, not tax cuts for businesses and the wealthy, are what matter to prosperity.  Minimum wages make low wage workers better off in Oregon. Thanks in major part to the state’s minimum wage, Oregon’s low wage workers make about ten percent more per hour than low wage workers around the United states.

“Business friendly” = worker hostile. Low wage Oregon workers make about 16 percent more per hour than low wage workers in “business friendly” states. Compared to the wages paid to low wage workers in these business friendly states, Oregon collectively workers take home more than $750 million more in income per year.

High ranked states on the CNBC business ranking system, like Virginia, attribute their ranking to low minimum wages, right to work laws and other anti-labor measures. Economic research shows the higher minimum wages increase worker productivity, reduce turnover, and don’t cause unemployment.

In the news

A debate on the Governor’s Prosperity Council report.  The Oregon Journalism Project sponsored a debate between City Observatory’s Joe Cortright and conservative economist Eric Fruits about the recently released report making recommendations for improving the Oregon economy.

 

 

Choosing Quality in Custom Academic Printing

Last time you picked up a diploma, transcript, or certificate, you’ll remember the weighty cardstock, personal seal, and crystal-clear ink and color on the page.

Academic credentials should reflect the gravitas of the achievement, and in some cases, the life’s work that earned the qualification. Quality isn’t a single choice when it comes to academic credential printing; it’s three value decisions. It is three value decisions. One missing link can undermine the perception of quality and deliver an insufficient product.

This article covers each step of the journey: paper, print, and turnaround time, focusing on why quality matters in custom academic printing.

Start with the quality and weight of the paper

The first thing you notice when you pick up a diploma or certificate is the weight and texture of the stock. Printing on flimsy paper erodes trust in any credential. Heavyweight, archival-grade cardstock demonstrates that the document is permanent, issued by a serious institution, and designed for longevity.

Naturally, as part of this, some institutions will also ensure that the stock quality includes watermarks and other security features. These tools aren’t just for anti-fraud purposes; they also make the document feel higher-quality and reflect the value of the credential being awarded.

Transcripts are different. Over their lifetime, the volume of people who handle them is much higher. They’re handled more frequently, so they must be more durable. Admissions offices, HR departments, and filing systems will all handle them. The weight of the stock is less ceremonial and more functional, but the document remains vital and valuable. While a diploma is more prestigious, a transcript remains a vital certification, used far more frequently by the individual.

The paper is the first statement of the document’s value. Selecting the right stock is crucial, but even the finest paper can only perform as well as the print it carries.

Clear and perfectly colored print is non-negotiable

Next, you need to ensure the print matches the choice of paper. Official credentials must have precise visuals. Seals, crests, and fine-line borders cannot afford any blur. A mistake like this would be perceived as a trust problem, lowering the document quality.

This means that high-resolution print is not a technical specification. This means that high-resolution print is not a technical specification; it’s non-negotiable when scrutinized by the recipient, validation processes, and friends and family. Producing a document with a smudged institutional crest is immediately noticeable. Color drift in the final print will also be noticed, especially when your college has distinct and identifiable colors.

A good printer will Pantone-match institutional colors perfectly, or use a CMYK-precise representation of your college. This is the difference between using a professional print shop and printing something at home. Even individuals who collect replica academic documents or buy fake GED  documents will choose a provider that guarantees a high-quality finish.

A strong finish authenticates the document and sends an anti-fraud signal, something that photography and digital scanning cannot replicate. It authenticates and provides an anti-fraud signal. Genuine quality differentiators in the finish include selecting a gloss or matte print, providing a soft-touch laminate to protect certain document types, and embossing a logo directly onto the stock.

When paper weight, resolution, and finish quality align, the credential’s value is guaranteed. However, precision is impossible under deadline pressure. A good print shop values deadlines and builds in a manageable turnaround time.

Plan your print to the graduation deadline to avoid quality trade-offs

This is the final element to consider. Any print shop under time pressure will cut corners, affecting the precision of the credential. Graduation deadlines are fixed points on the calendar for any academic institution. A print shop cannot move them, so they must plan their printing schedule around the dates of every college in their client base.

Working backwards from graduation day, a print shop needs two to four weeks to design the artwork for sign-off, provide a single proof for approval, and ensure that the print process is as high-quality as possible. Most shops will suggest adding a buffer in, just in case something fails inspection. This means the timeframe when working with a reliable print partner should be six to eight weeks ahead of the graduation date.

Rushing credentials leads to corners being cut. Rushing credentials leads to corners being cut, which will be noticed when the document reaches someone’s hands. Depending on lead times, that might be the credential itself. The three initial casualties of a rush job are curing time, print inspection, and quality checks. Any institution suffering a reprint will feel the consequences, affecting its reputation and trust.

Building a relationship with a print shop leads to great results. A business that understands academic calendars and treats graduation day as a shared deadline creates a sense of responsibility from the start. This relationship is just as important for marketing collateral, such as prospectuses, posters, and flyers. A trusted print partner will always result in a high-quality finish. The timeline is in the institution’s control, not the print shop.

Quality is a decision: make it before the deadline

A life’s work deserves only the highest-quality printed credential. An educational institution cannot afford to have any of the three links missing, as it will affect its reputation and the trust people have in the college. Each decision upholds or undermines the previous choices.

These documents often outlast institutions, and every factor matters when delivering a finish that matches the effort put in by students. Every factor matters when you have to deliver a finish that can match the effort put in by the students. Decisions made today represent an institution for many years.

Even those searching for replica academic documents need a high-quality print finish from the supplier. The document must match official credentials. That being said, a replica document is only made to look like an official certificate because of the novelty element the purchaser is looking for. Usually created for use on a theatre or TV set, or by a collector to represent a fictional institution from their favourite film or show, it is fraudulent to use a fake qualification for validation purposes. Even in this regard, a flimsy piece of paper does not represent the story the individual wants to tell.

Holding a credential in your own hands allows you to feel its value, the effort put into achieving it, and the pride in attaining it. That’s why you choose quality in custom academic prints.

Photo: Nacho Gomez via Pexels


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Strategic Tax Planning: Why You Should Plan Taxes 2 Years in Advance

Strategic tax planning is the process of organizing your finances in a way that minimizes tax liabilities. Planning is critical to successfully mitigate taxes. Key components of this process include knowing how the tax law applies to you specifically, as well as structuring your finances in a way that utilizes available deductions and credits. By taking a proactive approach to tax planning, you can ensure that you are not blindsided by a large tax bill at the end of the year, which can have a significant impact on your financial stability. Let’s dive into why it’s crucial to plan taxes at least two years in advance and explore the benefits that come with doing so.

Engaging Professionals and Resources

Engaging with professionals and resources can make the process smoother and more effective. By doing so, individuals and businesses can potentially save significant amounts of money and avoid any last-minute scramble to file taxes. This can include working with a tax advisor, utilizing payment and tax software like a pay stub generator ,  and researching current tax laws. By taking the time and effort to plan their taxes, individuals, and businesses can not only save money but also ensure that they comply with all applicable tax laws. 

Seeking professional guidance for complex tax situations 

Seeking professional guidance is especially important for complex tax situations, such as those involving multiple income sources or international investments. These professionals can help identify potential risks and opportunities for tax savings, as well as develop a comprehensive plan for the next couple of years.

Leveraging their expertise for long-term planning

By leveraging the expertise of financial professionals, you can develop a long-term plan that takes into account your unique financial circumstances and helps you achieve your financial goals. With careful planning and consistent monitoring, you can ensure that your taxes are structured in a way that minimizes your liability and maximizes your returns.

Benefits of Planning Taxes in Advance

By planning your taxes two years in advance, you give yourself ample time to review your financial situation and create a strategy that maximizes your tax savings. The benefits of planning taxes are numerous, ranging from being able to take advantage of tax-efficient investments to optimizing your contributions to retirement accounts. Additionally, by planning, you can ensure you have enough funds set aside to pay your taxes when they come due, avoiding undue stress and financial hardship.

Additionally, individuals can also adjust their income and expenses to optimize their tax situation. Planning taxes allows for greater flexibility in financial decision-making, as well as providing peace of mind knowing that taxes are being handled proactively. It is important to start planning early, as waiting until the last minute can limit the options available for reducing tax liabilities. Here are three main benefits: 

Maximizing deductions and credits

By maximizing deductions and credits, individuals and businesses can save a significant amount of money on their taxes. However, this requires careful consideration and planning, ideally starting two years in advance. With proper strategic tax planning, it is possible to minimize tax liability and maintain compliance with all relevant laws and regulations. 

Planning for significant life events

It is important to address the significance of planning for significant life events, and how it can impact your taxes. Life events such as marriage, having children, or buying a home, can greatly affect your financial situation. By anticipating these changes and planning accordingly, you can ensure that you are prepared and can take advantage of tax benefits  that may be available to you.

Tax Law Changes and Future Projections

Tax law changes and future projections play a crucial role in tax planning. The tax code is often updated, and it is important to stay informed about these changes to adjust your tax planning strategies. By keeping track of potential changes, you can anticipate how they might impact your financial situation, and make any necessary adjustments. Additionally, projecting future financial events such as retirement can also inform your tax planning decisions.

Long-Term Financial Planning

It is never too early to start considering tax planning, as it generally requires a long-term effort to be truly effective. By planning two years, taxpayers can take advantage of various strategies and options to minimize their tax burden and achieve greater financial security. 

Considering retirement savings and investments

Many people focus on filing their taxes on time each year but fail to adequately plan for taxes in the future. This is where considering retirement savings and investments become crucial. By taking a proactive approach and planning your taxes ahead of time, you can potentially save a significant amount of money in the long run. 

Proper tax planning involves a combination of forward-thinking and strategic decision-making, which is why it is crucial to start the process well in advance. With the right planning and guidance, individuals and businesses can position themselves for long-term success and financial stability.

Final Thoughts

Tax planning is an important aspect of maximizing your financial success. By taking the time to plan and understand your options, you can ensure that you are making the most of your money and minimizing your tax burden. As the saying goes, failing to plan is planning to fail, and when it comes to taxes, this couldn’t be more true.

Photo: Tara Winstead via Pexels


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Key Considerations When Building a Reliable Data Collection Workflow

Establishing a data collection workflow is crucial, as it will help you access data that will help achieve your strategic goals or improve operations. The value of data relies on consistency, accuracy, quality, but also reliability. All these factors are influenced by how effective your data collection workflow really is. And here’s what you need to know.

What is a data collection workflow?

At its core, the data collection workflow is referring to the processes involved in processing, acquiring, validating, but also storing and using data. Basically, the workflow is a framework which ensures that all data is moving efficiently from the source to its destination, all while maintaining integrity and consistency as well.

A regular data collection workflow will include defining objectives, then figuring out data sources and collecting data. It will also focus on validating and cleaning data, storing and organizing the data, monitoring quality and analyzing as well as reporting results. The efficiency of each stage does impact how reliable the system is, which is extremely important to keep in mind here.

Define data collection objectives

You always want to have the right objectives when you are collecting any type of data. Basically, you want to know what info is needed, why is the data collected, how is the data going to be used, who will use the data and also what decisions will it support. Defining the objective will give you a much better idea when it comes to data points, and it can prevent unnecessary data collection.

Identify reliable data sources

Making sure that you have a reliable data source is crucial. And these can range from internal databases to CRM systems, website analytics platforms, mobile apps, surveys and questionnaires, public data sets, IoT devices and sensors, third party providers and so on.

You do want to be certain that these data sources are dependable, because they need to deliver accuracy, relevance, timeliness, consistency and reduce the risks of adding errors into the workflow. That is extremely important, and it’s certainly something you need to keep in mind as you want to have a powerful data collection workflow.

Ensure data quality from the beginning

Some companies treat data quality as an afterthought. However, you always want to focus on quality assurance and on preventing any type of issue that could potentially arise.

  • Accuracy is mandatory, because the data you get must represent the real-world conditions.
  • It also needs to be complete, and there shouldn’t be any significant gaps in there as well.
  • Additionally, consistency is crucial. The information needs to be uniform across data sets and systems.
  • Another important aspect is validity, because the data should conform to the predefined formats and rules.
  • It must be unique as well, and if there are duplicate records, those need to either be eliminated or minimized as well.
  • Lastly, data must be current and relevant. Poor quality data will always lead to inaccurate analysis, bad strategies and less trust in the reporting systems.

If you focus on data quality right from the beginning, that can be extremely useful and you will appreciate the results quite a bit. In the end, that’s what you want to pursue, and you will be amazed how everything flows together.

Standardizing the data collection process

The reason why you want to standardize data collection is because it brings consistency and a great sense of reliability as well, across all the data collection activities. You need to have data entry guidelines, naming conventions, measurement standards, but also formatting requirements and validation rules.

You should also use the best proxies  available in order to ensure that the data is acquired properly and there are no blacklists or other problems. At the end of the day, standardized processes are great because they reduce confusion and can also improve data integration across multiple systems.

Create effective data validation systems

You need to have data validation in order to prevent errors during collection and detection. Format validation is important because it ensures values are matching expected patterns. Then there are range validations, where you need to be certain that values are falling within the acceptable limits. And of course, there’s mandatory field validation and cross-field validation as well. integrating the best validation mechanics is crucial, because it will improve data reliability. And since data is crucial for so many things, validation is indeed a major aspect of the data collection workflow.

Automate the data collection workflow (where possible)

You don’t always want to automate your data collection workflow, but some of the tasks might be suitable for automation. There are a lot of technologies like APIs, data integration platforms, RPA, workflow automation tools, scheduled imports and so on that might come in handy. And in the end, you will have faster collection, better consistency, not to mention scalability will be improved and operational costs will be a whole lot better.

Building a scalable workflow

Data volumes will increase overtime as the organization is growing. A powerful workflow will need to have scalability, so use that to your advantage. In these situations, you always want to assess the storage capacity, processing power, integration flexibility and cloud infrastructure. All of them matter and they have to be scalable. That will lower any chances of a bottleneck, and you can also reduce the overall redesign costs in the long term. Hence the reason why it makes sense for your entire data collection workflow to be very scalable.

Conclusion

We always think it’s important to ensure that the data collection workflow you create is carefully planned, and it should also go through ongoing management. Making sure everything is adapted and optimized to your use case is a crucial part of the process. As you do that and the data volume continues to grow, you need to be certain that your data collection workflow is robust and everything works smoothly. Once you address these key considerations, the data collection workflow will be improved exponentially, and your business will benefit from it.

Photo: Lukas Blazek via Pexels


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GAO flags satellite costs, launch risks in Space Force portfolio

Lockheed Martin Next Gen OPIR GEO (NGG) satellite

Watchdog cites growing costs for missile-warning satellites, digital engineering gaps and workforce reductions that could slow national security launches

The post GAO flags satellite costs, launch risks in Space Force portfolio appeared first on SpaceNews.

Pegasus launches Swift reboost mission

A Pegasus XL launched a mission to reboost a NASA astrophysics spacecraft on what may be the final flight of that rocket.

The post Pegasus launches Swift reboost mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Open Source AI Gap Map

Open Source AI Gap Map

Current AI is "a global partnership building a public option for AI", founded as a non-profit at the AI Action Summit in Paris in February 2025 and backed by serious capital ($400m already committed).

They launched their Gap Map a couple of days ago - an attempt at indexing the current state of open source AI:

The Gap Map v0.1 details 421 products in depth: 266 software tools and libraries, 85 models, 50 datasets, and 20 hardware projects, produced by 228 organizations. These products are organized into 14 categories across 3 layers of the stack (model components, product / UX, and infrastructure). The remaining 24,400 artifacts constitute the uncategorized long tail of the open source AI ecosystem, and will carry no score until they are researched and cited.

The map itself is interesting to explore, but I'm more excited about the underlying data - released under an MIT license in the currentai-org/os-ai-map GitHub account: 1,184 YAML files plus the notebooks, schemas and other scripts used to help gather them.

Since the files are on GitHub you can use Datasette Lite to explore some of them - here are 16,185 GitHub repos the project is tracking as a CSV file loaded into Datasette Lite.

Tags: open-source, ai, datasette-lite, generative-ai, local-llms, llms

Quoting Josh W. Comeau

I just launched my third course, Whimsical Animations, and so far, it’s on track to sell roughly ⅓ as many copies as a typical course launch.

It’s a similar story with my two existing courses. Sales are down significantly from last year.

There are likely a lot of reasons for this, but I think the biggest is AI. There’s sort of a double whammy with AI:

  1. Many people are wondering whether developer jobs will even exist in a few months, so they’re reluctant to spend time/money learning new dev skills.
  2. Even if they do want to learn new dev skills, LLMs can provide personalized tutoring, so there’s less incentive to buy a paid course.

[...] I’ve spoken to a few course creators now, and we’re all seeing the same trend. Revenue down 50%+. Fewer people engaging with our content. People switching to LLMs, which slurp up all of our work and regurgitate it, without consent or compensation.

Josh W. Comeau, via Salma Alam-Naylor

Tags: ai-ethics, llms, ai, generative-ai, careers, josh-comeau

Fable's judgement

One of the most interesting tips I got from the Fireside Chat I hosted with Cat Wu and Thariq Shihipar from the Claude Code team at AIE on Wednesday was to let Fable (and to a certain extent Opus) use their own judgement rather than dictating how they should work.

The example they gave was testing. You can tell Fable "only use automated testing for larger features, don't update and run tests for small copy or design changes" - but it's better to just tell Fable to use its own judgement when deciding to write tests instead.

Jesse Vincent just gave me a related tip to help avoid burning too many of those valuable Fable tokens in the few days we have left before the prices go up. Tell Fable to use other models for smaller tasks, applying its own judgement about which model to use.

I prompted Claude Code just now with:

For all coding tasks use your judgement to decide an appropriate lower power model and run that in a subagent

Claude saved this memory file in ~/.claude/projects/name-of-project/memory/delegate-coding-to-subagents.md:

---
name: delegate-coding-to-subagents
description: Simon wants coding tasks delegated to subagents running an appropriately lower-power model
metadata: 
  node_type: memory
  type: feedback
  originSessionId: 30068d78-43a9-4fb1-bb29-9799e18c526a
---

Stated by Simon on 2026-07-03: "For all coding tasks use your judgement to decide an appropriate lower power model and run that in a subagent."

Why: cost/efficiency — implementation work rarely needs the top-tier model; judgment, review, and synthesis stay with the main loop.

How to apply: when a task in this project is primarily writing/editing code, spawn an Agent with a model override (sonnet for substantive implementation, haiku for trivial/mechanical edits) and a self-contained prompt; review the result in the main loop before committing. Design, auditing, data synthesis, and anything judgment-heavy stays in the main model. See also [[project-goals]].

So far it seems to be working well. I'm getting a ton of work done and my Fable allowance is shrinking less quickly than before.

Tags: claude, ai, claude-code, llms, prompt-engineering, coding-agents, generative-ai, claude-mythos-fable, anthropic

June 2026 newsletter

The June edition of my sponsors-only monthly newsletter is out. If you are a sponsor (or if you start a sponsorship now) you can access it here.

This month:

  • Claude Fable 5, GPT-5.6, and US export restrictions
  • GLM-5.2 is the new best open weights model
  • Tokenmaxxing is so over
  • Datasette Apps
  • sqlite-utils and shot-scraper and Datasette
  • Miscellaneous WASM projects
  • Other model releases
  • What I'm using

Here's a copy of the May newsletter as a preview of what you'll get. Pay $10/month to stay a month ahead of the free copy!

Tags: newsletter

Bicentennial Memories

Lisbon 1976: Miguel Beleza, Andy Abel, Jeff Frankel, me

Today is the nation’s 250th anniversary. And it should be a day of celebration.

But it won’t be. America’s 250th birthday will be a grim, glum affair. As far as I can tell, even MAGA enthusiasts are feeling depressed. They certainly aren’t turning out to visit Donald Trump’s sad, shabby state fair.

It’s a huge difference from the bicentennial, which I celebrated in an unusual but deeply memorable way.

You see, I spent the summer of 1976 in Portugal, which had had its own revolution (the Carnation Revolution) just two years earlier. That revolution overthrew the nation’s fascist dictatorship and created what has proved an enduring democracy.

I was there as part of a group of MIT graduate students working at the Banco de Portugal — the country’s equivalent of the Federal Reserve. And I spent the 4th at a picnic in a Lisbon park, thrown by the U.S. embassy.

It was a small affair. These days Lisbon is overrun with American tourists and expats, but back then there were very few of us around. Even the U.S. government had relatively few people there, because it was trying to keep a low profile in the face of widespread anti-Americanism: Many Portuguese at the time were still talking about how the U.S. had helped overthrow a democratically elected government in Chile three years earlier. There were graffiti around Lisbon saying “Morte à CIA” — although some of these had had “e ao KGB” added in fresher paint.

So the embassy filled out the picnic by inviting Americans it knew were in Lisbon along with staff from other friendly embassies. I remember chatting with a number of West Germans.

The picnic was a charming affair. We stood around munching hot dogs — God knows how they managed that in the land of salt cod and grilled sardines — and listened as the ambassador read a patriotic message from Gerald Ford. And I remember feeling very good about America.

Furthermore, I wasn’t the only American feeling cheerful at the bicentennial, which was somehow an uplifting occasion.

This sunniness may seem odd, given that the U.S. was troubled in many ways. We had just suffered a humiliating defeat in Vietnam. Our cities were a mess: New York had 1600 murders in 1976, more than 5 times the rate last year, and Times Square was an eyesore of drug addicts and porn shops. Oh, and the city had recently gone bankrupt.

Yet somehow Americans managed to have fun at the bicentennial festivities, and there was a surprising amount of optimism in the air.

One source of optimism was surely the end of the Vietnam War. Yes, it ended in defeat. But it did end, which meant that young Americans and their families no longer had to worry about the draft, and that the nightly news didn’t keep reporting on body counts.

Another source of optimism — something people like JD Vance will never understand — was the fall of Richard Nixon. Satisfaction about how Watergate brought Nixon down wasn’t mainly about partisanship. Instead, the Watergate saga felt like an affirmation of the American spirit. Reporters were heroes and the media did its job. So did Congress. Nobody would call Gerald Ford a great president, but he was clearly a decent human being. The powerful were held accountable. America, it seemed, still retained its soul.

Who would say that now?

On the eve of America’s 250th birthday we had confirmation of presidential corruption on a scale Nixon could never have imagined. That’s bad in itself. What’s worse is that nobody believes that there will be any consequences for Trump, his cronies, and their henchmen. In 1974 Republicans joined with Democrats to hold Nixon accountable. This time around they’re fully invested in magnifying Trump’s power and his cult of personality, despite knowing perfectly well who he is and what he is doing.

I am not giving up hope. America is not irretrievably lost. But now, much more than 50 years ago, we are a nation in desperate need of redemption.

A Fourth Without Soul

America’s 250th Birthday Comes With a Crisis of Democracy

Too few of us would pass as credentialed American historians or licensed litigators for maintaining our legal protections, but all of us can feel that this U.S. experiment in democracy over 250 years is slipping away.

What should be a moment of national pride on this Fourth of July about issuing a Declaration of Independence instead is a shattered reflection of our divisions, not only about partisan politics, but about who we are as Americans, about our shared values and about whether we still recognize the central qualities of equality, fairness and lending a hand to those with less.

While the desire for nationwide identity rises and wanes with regularity, overly dependent as it is on whether we can afford the cost of fuel, health, shelter and food, something more sinister has emerged in recent years about the fragility of the American experiment. The decline obviously has been hastened in the two years of Donald Trump’s second presidency, but the prime causes of distrust and perversion of an all-inclusive America to one for the privileged classes have been noticeable for the full Trump decade or more.

Our history as an American entity always has been flawed, of course, marked by genocidal attacks on Native Americans, permanently stained by decades of sanctioned slavery, and the constant need over 250 years for efforts by women, racial, religious, ethnic and gender-identifying minorities to gain access to the American Dream. Despite the current active campaigns by the Trump government, concurring Republican states and unquestioning corporate elites to whitewash our history, the underlying American story has been one of constant fights to expand individual rights for equal treatment.

Or so we have told ourselves. We too quickly overlook locking up Japanese Americans, turning away immigrants fleeing violence and hunger, and our institutionalized racism buried in mortgage redlining and access to education, hiring and promotion.

Why is Trump wondering why people are shunning his version of the Fourth that glorifies himself rather than the principles of democracy?

What’s New?

Trump’s so-called populism of the angry, of a White middle-class that has felt abused by efforts towards fairness, has brought a boatload of anti-democratic words and deeds to the surface.

Set aside Trump as plunderer, or Trump as hypocritically running to stop wars only to start his own, or the Trump who values self-glorification over the responsibilities to lower costs, promote jobs, education, health, welfare and to provide safety nets for the vulnerable.

Most actual Trump public policies are generally wrong-headed, but they are the matter for the kind of debate that has been imagined from the start.

What had not been anticipated is the organized Trump program to undercut democracy itself – supposedly the very thing about which all the midnight fireworks displays and public gatherings are meant to be celebrating.

Taken together, Trumpism has achieved in two years what had not been possible in 248: He is dismantling the systems of public checks and balances on the presidency and the ever-growing executive branch. He is neutering Congress through threats and stacked the Supreme Court. He is seeking to manipulate who can vote, how we both vote and count ballots, and how we declare election outcomes. He is threatening to send his privatized, virtually rule-free, armed federal army into our streets and around our polling places.

The voices of Democrats and pro-democracy independents are being ridiculed, sued, prosecuted or simply ignored as Trump has actively encouraged sympathetic corporations to buy or control news outlets and the activities of journalists, lawyers, educators and protestors.

Importantly, the tools of the Trump campaigns are a bastardized Justice Department and FBI, takeover and manipulation of Homeland Security and national intelligence agencies and an ugly anti-immigrant, mass deportation campaign that fails to veil its racialist roots. The transformation of an anti-criminal focus to a generalized effort to undercut legal as well as illegal immigration is well underway.

Oversight is dead or will be unless there is a huge anti-Trump outcome in the November elections, and the damage done across the board by efforts to undercut regulations for health and environment, international agreements and relationships, and trust in elections, government and law itself will take decades of repair.

It’s the Fourth of July, a time to celebrate the very monarchical systems that Trump is reinstituting, along with the personal spoils of self-crowning. It’s marked in the nation’s capital with fences to protect expensive algae-ridden reflecting pools, National Guardsmen everywhere to handle protests and virtually empty Trump events held in 100-degree heat.

What we should be asking is why we are allowing America to be overtaken by Trump, Inc., corporate greed, and the intolerance of anyone not White and wealthy.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

The post A Fourth Without Soul appeared first on DCReport.org.

Factories are just rooms

I went into my kid’s school a couple months back and spoke to the year group about manufacturing.

Honestly it was the most rewarding speaking gig I’ve done all year.

It was about the process of making my AI clock and I have a ton of pics from my factory visit to Shenzhen (mostly pics that I have only shared with Kickstarter backers).

I talked about where ideas come from and the value of playing around, and how it’s neat to learn new techniques that you can combine together.

I talked about prototyping and design – and was sure to use the words “prototyping” and “design”. I showed exploratory sketches and what CAD looks like.

I handed round various iterations of e-paper screens, and electronics from breadboard to PCB, and various iterations of plastic parts.

It’s interesting to see how a plastic enclosure comes apart, and to connect that to what an injection moulding machine is doing.

(A lot of the kids are familiar with 3D printers, so I showed a timelapse of a 3D print – it would take a year to print all my clocks! And then a real-time video of injection moulding, and how that would only take a day.)

And then photos of factory floors, and here’s the team, and assembly lines and what a page from an assembly procedure looks like, and packaging too.


7 year olds have great questions.

Like: how does it not break in the post?

Well here’s a vibration machine in action and that’s how we test it.

And, look, in this cardboard packaging, here’s a cradle, and this was made by a packaging designer – you could be a packaging designer too if you want.

Like: how does the button work?

Well you’re right I didn’t pass round the separate button piece, good spot, it’s small and I didn’t want to lose it. So now let’s talk about assembly and about industrial designers…


I don’t like those videos of factories that are supposed to inspire awe.

You know the ones I mean: you see a thousand products a second whizzing by on 20 parallel belts. You come away saying wow. When they showed manufacturing on kid’s TV when I was growing up, that was what they showed.

“Awe” is the opposite of what I want to convey.

Except for a very specific types of person, when you show something with the expectation that “awe” is the appropriate response, you are implicitly saying to your audience: you should step back here and appreciate this from a distance. Like looking at a great work of art. Gasp but do not place yourself in the picture.

Whereas!

I want to re-home manufacturing. I want these kids to become designers, engineers, inventors, factory owners, and all the rest. Makers of any kind; participants in the ongoing making of our world.

So my message is: sure this is complicated but it’s fine, we can do complicated.

Factories are just rooms.

The stuff around us isn’t divine - these chairs we’re sitting on, the TV at the front of the classroom, the pots for the plants - all this stuff was invented and figured out and made by people.

p.s. you can be one of those people.


So when I heard the class was learning about inventing, I offered to go in and show that scrappy dead ends are cool actually (it was amazing to speak with a class that already knows the word “prototyping”) and this is electronics and this is going from sketching to plastic and this is what it means to make a product and to sell it.

I deeply feel this mission to normalise getting our hands dirty with the world – when they’re 7 years old, while their brains are still establishing what’s normal.

(This is connected with what I was saying about training for collective efficacy.)

And I’m just someone’s dad, you know? So if this guy can do it…

If you have the opportunity to go into your local school and talk about making things too, please do. You will be rewarded with wonderful curiosity, engagement and questions from the kids.

Hopefully one of them one day will look around them, think “someone should do something about that”, remember back, and say - oh that someone can be ME.


More posts tagged: that-ai-clock-and-so-on (15).

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Some 190 million light-years away, Some 190 million light-years away,


Coffee (and) science: medicine and climate change

 First the good medical news for coffee drinkers, from MedpageToday and the journal Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology:

Coffee Lovers and Their Livers Can Celebrate, Study Suggests — Five or more cups a day linked to the greatest benefit  by Mike Bassett, Staff Writer, MedPage Today 

"Coffee consumption has been linked to a number of health benefits, such as reduced risks of dementia, head and neck cancer, and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.
According to data from the U.K. Biobank, a higher intake of coffee was associated with lower risks of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related mortality.
These associations persisted for both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee, and for unsweetened and sweetened coffee."

 

Here's the journal article: Kim H, Rezaee-Zavareh M, Wang Y ...
Coffee Consumption and Improved Liver Outcomes: Clinical, Imaging, and Proteomic Evidence From the UK Biobank, Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 2026;  

 

#######

 And here's more sobering news, published in Nature, about how climate change threatens coffee cultivation:

Coffee is under threat: how scientists are fighting to save it from extinction
Coffee plants are critically endangered by climate change. Researchers are finding solutions to keep scientists supplied with their favourite discovery fuel.
   By Davide Castelvecchi 

"Nearly all the 10 million tonnes of coffee beans consumed annually around the world come from two plant species: the strong and often bitter robusta (Coffea canephora) and the more delicate-tasting arabica (Coffea arabica). Unfortunately, arabica suffers or dies when temperatures rise just a few degrees1, and robusta requires massive amounts of water and its yields drop drastically in a drought.

...

"Tesfaye says that scientists, of all people, should care about coffee’s future, not just because science is good for coffee, but because coffee is good for science, too. “Many discoveries and knowledge are generated after having a cup of coffee.” 

The Fall and Rise of Screwworm

Every spring, as sure as the seasons, and for generations unknown, screwworms began their annual march northward from their overwintering sanctuaries in Mexico and South Texas. Pushed by an unknown force as inexorable as gravity, screwworms moved north — ever moving, ever spreading, ever multiplying, ever destroying. No army ever advanced any more surely or methodically. No army was ever more destructive. Attacking, killing, maiming, and destroying, screwworms literally ate their way north. Reaching upper South Texas, they fanned east and west - all the while moving north - dotting the countryside with the dead carcasses of hapless wildlife, cattle, sheep, and goats, filling the “wormy” pens of farmers and ranchers. - C.G. Scruggs, The Origin of the Screwworm Control Problem

Screwworms completely dominated our life. - T.A. Kincaid Jr., Texas rancher, quoted in The Peaceful Atom and the Deadly Fly

On June 3 of this year, a flesh-eating parasite, the screwworm, was found in a three-week-old calf near the Texas town of La Pryor. Since then, dozens more cases have been discovered in Texas and New Mexico. Outside of a screwworm outbreak in the Florida Keys in 2016 (which was contained), this marks the first screwworm infestation in the US since the 1980s.

Screwworm cases as of July 1st, via the USDA.

Until now, the US has been free of screwworm not due to luck, but because of a decades-long program to eradicate the parasite by breeding it out of existence. By dropping millions of sterile male screwworm flies in an infested area, agricultural agencies can overwhelm the native, fertile male screwworms. Female screwworm flies, who only mate once in their life, will mostly mate with sterile males, producing no living offspring. Drop sterile flies for long enough, and eventually there will be no viable offspring at all, and the pest will be eliminated.

Over the course of several decades, this “sterile male technique” was used by the USDA to eliminate screwworm from the US, Mexico, and Central America. Since the early 2000s a joint US-Panamanian organization, COPEG, has maintained a “screwworm barrier” at the Darien Gap between Colombia and Panama. Every week, millions of sterile male screwworm flies are dropped over the gap, preventing the screwworms from spreading north from South America (where it remains endemic).

Sometime around 2023, the barrier at Panama failed, and for the last several years screwworm has been marching north. It’s now reached the US. Efforts are underway to eliminate screwworm from North and Central America once again, but it will likely be years before they succeed.

The screwworm eradication program was so effective at eliminating the parasite that we’ve collectively forgotten what an enormous problem it used to be. It’s worth understanding the costs inflicted by screwworm prior to its elimination, how a program emerged for eliminating it, and how control was allowed to lapse.

History of screwworm

New World Screwworm (scientific name Cochliomyia hominivorax) is a species of fly native to the Western Hemisphere. While the larvae (maggots) of most flies feed on dead or decaying tissue, screwworm is unique in that its larvae feed on living tissue. The grisly cycle begins when a screwworm fly lays its eggs on the open wound of an animal. The eggs soon hatch into wriggling white worms, which can grow up to two-thirds of an inch long. These worms burrow into the flesh as they eat their way into the animal, making the wound even worse and attracting even more flies to lay their eggs. After a few days of eating, the worms transform into shell-covered pupae, falling out of the animal and emerging as fully grown flies about a week later. Untreated, a screwworm infestation in an animal is typically fatal.

Via the USDA 1938

Since at least the early 19th century, and likely much earlier, screwworm was a miserable fact of life for raising livestock in the Southwestern US. The screwworm fly would find and lay her eggs on even the smallest open wound, and animals had to be inspected for worms constantly. One author notes that “[p]eople would not leave home for more than a day for fear of finding their animals had been eaten alive while they were away. Anyone who didn’t check their animals at least every two days — or have someone do it for them — knew that they would pay a heavy toll in damaged or dead animals.” When worms were inevitably found, they had to be dealt with, typically by applying various insect-killing chemicals, though occasionally by manually removing the worms, a task described as “disgusting and sickening.” Often animals couldn’t be saved — an infection in a horse, for instance, was described in the late 19th century as “typically fatal.” The amount of time and effort required was such that ranchers employed ranchhands whose entire jobs were inspecting animals for screwworm.

Despite efforts to prevent infection, such as by covering animals’ open wounds with tar, screwworm infestations occurred by the millions — in cattle, sheep, goats, horses, and occasionally humans (the first documented screwworm infection in a person in the US dates to the 1830s). One history of the scourge noted that by the early 20th century, infestations had reached “such a disastrous level that it was becoming unprofitable to raise livestock. Producers were forced to hire more and more cowboys to check and treat animals.” A 1935 USDA survey found more than 1.2 million infections and 180,000 dead livestock in Texas alone, with actual totals likely being far higher. A year earlier the USDA estimated that screwworm had killed 1.3 million animals across the Southeast. Some estimates suggested that in the 1930s and 40s, 60% to 80% of white tail deer in Texas were killed by screwworm infections.1

By the 1930s, the situation appeared grim. Screwworms had, by then, found their way into Florida, a climate warm enough that they could survive in the southern portion of the state year-round, spreading up through the southeast during the spring. Prospects for dealing with the pest appeared bleak:

Even with the best efforts of scientists and the use of the latest insecticides, repellents, and liver-baited traps, US livestock producers were losing the war. After more than one hundred years of struggle, the screwworm had spread out of control — and there was no solution in sight. - History of the Mexico-United States Screwworm Eradication Program

Studying the enemy

The toll inflicted by screwworm inspired vigorous efforts to try and combat it. In 1929 the USDA began a screwworm research program at Menard, Texas. This program initially focused on developing better chemical treatments for infections, and would ultimately generate the research that would banish the screwworm from the US.

The first breakthrough occurred thanks to USDA entomologist Emory Cushing. At the time the primary methods to battle screwworm were insecticides to treat infections and traps to capture the flies. After several years of research at Menard, Cushing became convinced that these measures wouldn’t be enough. Believing that something was missing from “the screwworm puzzle,” Cushing applied for a grant to study entomology at the University of Liverpool with Walter Scott Patton, a world expert on flies. Working under Patton, Cushing closely studied the internal structure of different flies, determining for the first time that the screwworm was a unique species with a unique lifecycle. Prior to this, the screwworm fly had often been confused with other, similar flies whose larvae fed on decaying, rather than living, flesh. The identification of screwworm as a distinct species, one whose larvae ate only living flesh, was critical: previous eradication efforts had included using traps baited with carrion to attract flies, but Cushing’s work showed that these efforts were useless. Following Cushing’s discovery, research efforts shifted focus to understanding the screwworm specifically.

In 1931, shortly before Cushing left for England another entomologist, Edward Knipling, joined the USDA. Initially posted at the Menard laboratory in Texas, Knipling was moved to a series of other labs, before eventually arriving at a newly formed lab in Valdosta, Georgia, established in 1934 to help combat the worsening screwworm problem in the Southeast. By then, thanks to Cushing’s research, it had become clear that the screwworm was a unique species, and Knipling and other USDA researchers began studying it more closely to understand and characterize its lifecycle and behavior. This meant watching the flies closely; at one point, Knipling spent every waking hour for a week straight doing nothing but watching screwworms all day. From “The Peaceful Atom and the Deadly Fly:”

He placed a wounded goat in the open. From daylight till dark for a week he watched the goat. Upon seeing a female screwworm fly deposit eggs on the wound in the goat, Knipling would mark her with fingernail polish. He would then watch the marked female and plotted all her activities for the rest of the week if she remained in the area. Day after day, fly after fly, Knipling observed. What time were flies most active? How many eggs were laid? Dozens of questions were asked. Knipling and his fellow workers tried to pry into the very basic life functions of the screwworm.

These studies revealed two important facts about the screwworm. One was that compared to other flies, the number of screwworms in a given area was surprisingly low: later studies eventually put the figure at around 100 flies per square mile. The other was that screwworms would not infect dead animals, only living ones.

In 1935 another young entomologist, Raymond Bushland, joined the USDA and was soon tasked with studying the effects of pesticides on screwworms. This required a steady supply of fresh screwworms, which could only be created by deliberately wounding caged animals allowing them to be infected. Bushland spent his days extracting screwworm pupae from the carcasses of dead rabbits, a task so repulsive that Bushland spent every morning of the first few weeks on the job vomiting.

Desperate to find a way to grow screwworms that didn’t require live animals, Bushland was, after months of work, eventually able to create an artificial growth medium consisting of “hamburger, blood, water, and a little formaldehyde to delay putrefaction.” The disgusting mixture made it much easier to grow screwworms, and before long Bushland was harvesting them by the thousands.

In 1937, Knipling, who had continued to move between various USDA locations, arrived at Bushland’s lab in Texas. Knipling was astounded at the huge number of flies that could be grown in the lab, compared to the relatively small number of flies that seemed to exist in the wild, and he began to ponder whether there might be some way to take advantage of the fact. Bushland’s screwworm husbandry operation also allowed Knipling to confirm a hunch he had from his own observations of the screwworm in the wild: the female screwworm fly only mated once in her life.

As Bushland and Knipling discussed their various observations and discoveries, the outlines of a plan began to emerge. What if you could overwhelm the wild population of screwworm by dumping huge numbers of sterile male flies into an area where cold temperatures had already reduced the number of wild flies? If sterile males greatly outnumbered wild males, most females would mate with sterile males, producing no viable offspring and greatly reducing the size of the next generation. Keep dumping sterile male flies, and eventually the population would simply breed itself out of existence.

It seemed like it would potentially work, but nothing like it had ever been tried before. And it wasn’t obvious how you could produce huge numbers of sterile male flies. After getting ridiculed by their entomologist colleagues — “who ever heard of castrating flies?” — Knipling and Bushland kept the idea to themselves. But the seed had been planted.

The plan to eliminate screwworm

For the next decade, a combination of professional skepticism, lack of obvious sterilization method, and the exigencies of World War 2 prevented much further work on screwworm eradication. At points during the Second World War Knipling continued to toy with models of screwworm population dynamics, and in 1947 he tasked Bushland with investigating chemical methods of sterilizing insects. But no method appeared promising. Without a way of mass-sterilizing the male flies, Knipling and Bushland’s idea was nothing but a pipe dream.

The final piece of the puzzle to eliminate screwworm wouldn’t fall into place until 1950. That year, Knipling read a journal article by Nobel Prize-winning scientist Hermann Muller. Muller had been awarded the prize for his groundbreaking work in genetics, discovering that mutations could be introduced into living things by exposing fruit flies to radiation. Muller’s 1950 article was a warning against the dangers of nuclear war, cautioning that the resulting radioactive fallout could create “a world of sterile human beings.”2 Knipling contacted Muller and asked him if radiation could be used to create large numbers of sterile male screwworms. Muller responded: “I know nothing of screwworms but your theory is sound.”

Invigorated by the Nobel Prize-winner’s vote of confidence, Knipling and Bushland set to work to see if they could use radiation to sterilize screwworms. With no research funds, Bushland dedicated his nights and weekends to the project, finding creative ways to make progress. Muller had done his radiation research using X-rays, but when a local hospital wanted $200 per test to use an X-ray machine, Bushland leveraged his Army connections to use the X-ray machine at a nearby Army hospital for free. The results were promising. Wanting to try an even more powerful radiation source, Bushland was able to convince Oak Ridge National Lab to lend him a sample of highly radioactive cobalt-60, capable of generating gamma rays. Meanwhile, Knipling was eventually able to secure $20,000 in research funds from the Atomic Energy Commission, who were interested in radiation’s effect on fly sterility.

The tests were a success: with a high enough dose of radiation, males were completely sterilized. They survived and would still mate with females, and the females would lay eggs, but the male chromosomes had become so riddled with mutations that the eggs didn’t hatch.

With a method of industrialized screwworm sterilization in hand, the only thing left to do was to try the idea and see if it worked. A USDA team in Florida began working out ways to distribute huge numbers of sterile screwworm flies.

They first tried simply scattering sterilized screwworm pupae on the ground, but this didn’t work: ants and other insects quickly devoured them. Dropping live flies seemed like it would work better, but it would have to be done in an isolated location to see if elimination was really possible — otherwise the area would be continuously reinfested by screwworms from outside the test area. After looking at several possible locations, the team eventually settled on Sanibel Island, a small island near Fort Myers on Florida’s Gulf Coast. After a few months of dropping boxes of flies onto the island from a small plane, the number of wild screwworms dropped to virtually nothing. While they couldn’t be eliminated completely — likely because wild flies continued to migrate from the mainland — the results were highly encouraging.

Buoyed by their success, the team began looking for an even larger stage for their next test. By chance, as they were searching, Knipling received a letter from a Dutch agricultural officer recently stationed on the Dutch Caribbean island of Curaçao, off the coast of Venezuela. The island was overrun with screwworm, and the officer wondered if Knipling had any suggestions for dealing with it. The location seemed perfect, and Curaçao soon became the location of the next test.

Bags of screwworm flies to be dropped over Curaçao, via the USDA.

The Curaçao test began in the summer of 1954. A screwworm production facility, complete with a cobalt-60 gamma-ray source, was set up in Orlando. Sterilized screwworms were flown into Curaçao, then dropped from a small plane in a carefully planned pattern across the island. For the first few weeks, results were poor, with 85% of screwworm offspring still viable. But when the density of dropped sterile flies was raised from 100 to 400 flies per square mile, results quickly improved. Within 14 weeks, no viable offspring could be detected. In November 1954, Curaçao was declared free of screwworm.

Pushing the enemy back

With the success in Curaçao, the USDA was ready to try eliminating screwworms in the US mainland. In 1955 a new, larger screwworm factory was constructed on the outskirts of Orlando, capable of producing two million sterilized flies a week. This new insectary would use a new strain of fly, bred specifically to outcompete wild flies. (The new flies, which had been selected for their high mating frequency, were nicknamed “the sexual athletes”.) Thanks to lobbying from the Florida Cattlemen’s Association, whose members were collectively losing $20 million per year due to screwworm infestations, the Florida legislature allocated $3 million to the eradication program, a figure which was matched by the federal government.

In April of 1958, while screwworms were still confined to the southern half of the state due to an unusually cold winter, USDA planes began dropping sterile screwworm flies over Florida. Flies were first dropped across a 100-mile-wide swath cutting through the center of the state, effectively creating a “barrier” that flies in the southern half of the state wouldn’t be able to penetrate. Inspection stations were set up to prevent the movement of any infected livestock into northern Florida and Georgia, and by July no screwworm cases were being reported north of the quarantine line. The USDA then pushed into south Florida, aided by an even larger screwworm factory in the city of Sebring capable of producing 50 million flies a week, and by September reported screwworm infections in the southeast had dropped to virtually nothing. Over the next several months, the occasional outbreak occurred, but these were dealt with by carpet-bombing the area with ever-higher concentrations of sterile flies. By February of 1959 screwworm cases in the Southeast had dropped to zero.

By the early 1960s screwworms were inflicting more than $100 million worth of damage in the southwest annually. Impressed by the success of the Florida program, ranchers in Texas and the Southwest began clamoring for similar efforts. But Texas would prove to be a much tougher nut to crack than Florida. Unlike Florida, which was surrounded on three sides by water, Texas had no natural barriers preventing screwworm transmission across the 1,000+ mile border that the state shared with Mexico, where screwworms survived year-round. In October of 1959, the USDA issued an official statement that screwworm eradication in the US Southwest did not appear feasible.

But despite the USDA’s official stance, Knipling, Bushland, and a few others in the USDA realized that a strategy used in the Florida eradication program might work in Texas and the Southwest. Florida’s eradication effort began by creating a 100-mile-wide screwworm barrier across the center of the state. This barrier, once in place, had virtually halted the spread of screwworms into the northern half of the state. What if the same thing were done in the Southwest? Create a 100-mile-wide barrier across the entire US-Mexican border. The challenges were many: this barrier would stretch far longer than the one that had been created in Florida and, unlike in Florida, this barrier would have to be continuously maintained. It would also require eliminating screwworm everywhere north of the barrier, a potentially massive undertaking. But not only could this plan eliminate screwworm from the Southwestern US, it could prevent re-infestation of the Southeast, a constant threat that was warded off by an involved, expensive livestock inspection operation.

For the next several years, the official position of the USDA remained that a Southwestern elimination program wasn’t feasible. But eventually the USDA changed its policy, thanks to the efforts of the Southwest Animal Health Research Foundation (SWAHRF), an organization formed by a small group of Texas livestock producers. SWAHRF broke the logjam by raising millions of dollars in voluntary donations from Texas ranchers for screwworm eradication. The show of grassroots enthusiasm convinced the Texas Legislature to allocate money to a Southwest eradication program, which in turn helped convince the federal government to support it. Credit also goes to newly elected Vice President Lyndon Johnson, who owned a ranch, was familiar with the scourge of screwworm, and pulled strings to kickstart the program.

The Southwest eradication program began in February of 1962, when winter temperatures had pushed the screwworm down into Mexico. USDA aircraft began dropping sterile flies across the US-Mexico border to create the North-South barrier. But the effort failed, and before long Texas had been reinfested. There simply weren’t enough flies: sterilized flies were being produced at a small insectary near Kerrville, Texas, at a rate of 20 million per week, but creating an effective barrier would require more than ten times that rate of production.

By spring 1962, construction had begun on the biggest screwworm factory yet, at an abandoned Air Force base near Mission, Texas. Eventually capable of producing more than 200 million screwworm flies a week, the Mission factory was a grotesque marvel of insect-producing efficiency. Operating 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, it was, in essence, a 76,000-square-foot artificial wound. Trays full of meat, blood, and water, each one heated to the exact right temperature to stimulate screwworm growth, moved through the facility on a monorail system timed to the lifecycle of the screwworm. Eggs would be placed in on the trays, hatch into larvae, and collectively feed on the bloody nutrient sludge, creating a “seething mass that is difficult to believe unless you’ve seen and smelled it.” After several days of growth, the larvae would wriggle out of the feed and fall into a water-filled trough, which gently carried them into sawdust-filled trays where they would pupate. The pupae would then be collected into canisters, which in turn were loaded into large casks containing highly radioactive cobalt-60. The irradiated, sterilized pupae were then packed into cartons, loaded into refrigerated trucks, and sent to distribution centers, where they would eventually hatch, be loaded onto planes, and dropped by the millions.

By June of 1962 the Mission factory was fully online, and flies began to be dropped in July. However, the program soon made an unfortunate discovery. It had previously been believed that the maximum range of the screwworm fly was around 35 miles traveled per week. Because the fly only lived for a few weeks, a 100-mile barrier was believed to be sufficient to prevent the passage of migrating flies. However, recent research had shown that in some cases a screwworm could fly much farther — up to 180 miles in a week. Consequently, the barrier would have to be much wider as well: 400 miles. Left with no choice, the USDA ramped up fly production at the Mission factory as fast as possible to support a widened barrier, and an agreement with Mexico was worked out to allow USDA planes to fly hundreds of miles into Mexican airspace to drop sterilized screwworm flies.

The expanded barrier worked. By 1963, the rate of screwworm cases in the US had fallen by 90%. In 1964, they fell even more, and by 1965 the states of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Louisiana were declared screwworm free. California and Arizona soon followed, and by 1966 screwworm had been eliminated from the entire US.

Screwworm barrier circa 1967, via the USDA.

From Mexico to Panama

But the national elimination of screwworm from the mainland United States was hard-won and not easy to maintain. It required continuously dropping millions of sterile male flies across the US-Mexico border to create a screwworm barrier. And no barrier is perfect. Over the next several years screwworm infections continued to crop up in the US, as worms from Mexico found their way into the US. 1972 was particularly bad, when US cases (which had fallen as low as 170 in 1970) surged to more than 95,000 that year.

Screwworm cases in the US and northern Mexico in 1972, via the USDA.

The solution? Push the US barrier even farther south, down to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico. Not only would this reduce the likelihood of Mexican screwworms reaching the US, it would eliminate screwworm from most of Mexico. And a barrier at Tehuantepec, which was only 118 miles across at its narrowest point, would be far easier to maintain than the nearly 2000 mile barrier across the entire US-Mexican border.

APHIS chart showing the plan to move the screwworm barrier, via the USDA.

In 1972, the US and Mexico signed a Screwworm Eradication Agreement, creating a joint commission to oversee the elimination of screwworm from northern Mexico. A new screwworm insectary, which would eventually produce more than 400 million sterilized flies per week, was built near Tuxtla Gutiérrez in southern Mexico. The factory began producing flies in 1976, and the first flies were dropped on Baja, Mexico that September. Progress was initially slow, but after a program reorganization (which included more livestock inspectors and a new strategy for quickly deploying experts to areas where outbreaks occurred) results improved. By late 1979 the Baja peninsula was free of screwworms, and by 1980 many Northern Mexican states followed. Starting in 1981, the program established a “critical line” across the width of Mexico, marshalling all possible resources to squash any infections that appeared north of it. Over the next several years the critical line was steadily pushed downward, until it reached the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in 1984, one year ahead of schedule.

Via the USDA.

But establishing a final barrier across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec left something to be desired. Mexican livestock producers below the barrier, who continued to deal with screwworm, complained that the government was favoring northern producers, and hundreds of thousands of livestock that passed from the south to livestock markets in the north, requiring tedious inspection and creating a constant risk of reinfestation. And while the Tehuantepec barrier was much smaller than the US-Mexico one, it still required dropping 150 million sterile flies a week, every week.

Fortunately, an even better location for a barrier existed: the Darien Gap, on the border of Colombia and Panama. At this narrow stretch of land, the barrier would need to be just 60 miles wide. And the densely forested, difficult-to-navigate terrain, which had no roads crossing it, would further hinder the passage of any infected livestock. Pushing the barrier all the way to Panama would also have the benefit of eliminating screwworm not just from the rest of Mexico, but all of Central America as well.

Eradication in Central America posed new challenges: the favorable climate conditions for the screwworm meant that far more flies would need to be dropped per square mile, and new international agreements would need to be signed with each country involved to allow the USDA to fly over their airspace and drop millions of insects. But the benefits would be substantial, and the decision was made to extend the program.

In 1986 the US-Mexico commission signed an agreement with Guatemala, and began dropping flies over the country in 1988. That same year an agreement with Belize was signed, which was followed by agreements with El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua in 1991, Costa Rica in 1993, and Panama in 1994. As sterile fly dispersal began across the new territories, screwworm infections in each country quickly fell. In 2006, a new screwworm factory was built in Panama to replace the aging Mexican factory (which had been operating continuously since 1976), opening on the same day that the country was declared screwworm free.

For the next decade and a half, the barrier at Panama held. Administered by a joint US-Panamanian organization called COPEG, the program continued to drop millions of flies a week across the Darien Gap, and employed inspectors to monitor livestock in the surrounding area. When the occasional infestation flared up — in Aruba in 2011, the Florida Keys in 2016 — flies kept in reserve were quickly dispatched, dropped in huge numbers to quash any spread.

Flightpath of screwworm dispersal flights in Panama, via Skoda et al 2017

The barrier falls

At some point in the last few years, screwworms broke through this barrier.

Recent screwworm cases in Central America, via Valdez-Espinoza et al 2025.

In 2021, screwworm cases were confirmed within the Darien Gap area in Panama, and Panama was added to the list of countries where screwworm is confirmed by the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Initially, this didn’t appear concerning: since 2001, Panama has had occasional small screwworm outbreaks in the Darien Gap area. But in 2022, screwworm was detected in Panama beyond the barrier at the Darien Gap. Though initially this was just a few cases, the infestation quickly spread: in 2023 there were 6,500 screwworm cases in Panama, and cases were detected in nearby Costa Rica. By 2024 screwworm had spread to every Central American country, as well as Mexico; there were 18,000 detected cases in Panama, 8,600 in Costa Rica, and 3,300 in Nicaragua. In 2025, total cases in Mexico rose to over 12,000, and as of this writing have exceeded 30,000.

It’s not 100% clear what caused the breach, and most sources point to a confluence of different factors. The disruption caused by COVID-19 seems to be partly to blame: during the pandemic livestock inspectors were forced to stay home, vehicles broke down and couldn’t be repaired due to a lack of replacement parts, and power outages in the screwworm plant killed millions of sterilized flies.

Another issue seems to be large-scale movement of both people and livestock. Starting in 2021, the number of migrants passing through the Darien Gap skyrocketed. Illegal cattle trafficking also likely played a role. Ranchers throughout Central America will illegally graze cattle on protected forests, often as part of a larger money-laundering operation for narcotics cartels. These cattle are then illicitly moved north to livestock markets in Mexico. It’s been estimated that hundreds of thousands of cattle are trafficked through Central America each year, and the speed at which screwworms have spread through the region suggests they’re moving by truck, being carried by infected cattle.

Via CSIS.

Also contributing are the changing circumstances in the Darien Gap itself. When the barrier was established the Darien Gap was a wild, untamed rainforest. Today that forest is increasingly being cut down and replaced with grassland for cattle to graze on, making it much easier for a screwworm infection to spread through the area. Amplifying this risk is the fact that many ranchers are absentee owners, people who treat the ranch as something of a vacation property without closely monitoring its operations.

The USDA didn’t simply sit back in response to this spate of outbreaks in Central America. APHIS drew on hundreds of millions of dollars in emergency funding in 2023 and 2024, and began dropping sterile flies in infected countries. Cattle imports from infected countries ceased, (though they later reopened in a limited fashion with increased inspection protocols). Fly production at the Panama facility was ramped up from 20 million flies a week to more than 100 million. But these efforts were nowhere near enough to stop the spread. The facility at Panama could produce enough flies to maintain a dense, narrow barrier of sterilized flies at the Darien Gap, but not to fight an infestation which had spread widely throughout Central America; at the peak of Central American operations in the 1980s and 1990s, over 400 million flies were being produced weekly.

New screwworm facilities are coming online — in 2026 the USDA broke ground on a facility at Moore Air Force Base in Texas meant to produce 300 million flies a week, and is converting an existing fruit fly insectary in Mexico to produce screwworms. And earlier this year APHIS announced a $100 million “Grand Challenge” for projects related to screwworm eradication or treatment. (Some anti-screwworm efforts may have been hindered by DOGE, which cut APHIS staff, screwworm monitoring programs, and may have delayed funding for the Mexico facility, but it’s hard to be confident about this, and the administration has unsurprisingly rejected these claims.)

Overall, the reemergence of screwworm seems like it’s being taken quite seriously, and if this level of investment is maintained it seems likely we’ll be able to re-eradicate it from the US and Central America. But this will probably take “close to a decade of sustained work:” bringing new production facilities online, and dropping millions of sterile flies over the infected areas week after week, month after month, year after year as the pest is gradually pushed back.

Conclusion

Overall, the screwworm program seems like a classic case of something becoming a victim of its own success: a problem got solved so thoroughly that we forget how big of a problem it was, and we gradually undermine the conditions that made the solution possible. Prior to the push of screwworms all the way south to Panama there were a series of other screwworm eliminations that only partly solved the problem: eliminating it in Florida and the Southeast didn’t do anything for the livestock in the Southwest, and required an involved inspection regime to keep screwworm entering from the rest of the country. Pushing the pest population down to Mexico required continuously dropping hundreds of millions of flies over an enormous, 400-mile-wide barrier that was frequently breached. The barrier at Tehuantepec left much of Mexico still exposed to screwworm, and was expensive to maintain.

The barrier at Panama, by contrast, worked amazingly well and cost only $15 million per year to operate. As a result of this success, other screwworm facilities were shut down (the Tuxtla factory closed in 2012, against the protests of COPEG), and production at Panama gradually declined to the level needed to maintain the barrier and not much else. Barrier conditions in the Darien Gap were allowed to deteriorate, the dense rainforest replaced with grassland occupied by ranchers paying insufficient attention to their herds. What had once been very thorough cattle inspection processes were allowed to lapse: one article notes that in Panama ranchers, veterinarians, and trade organizations became less diligent about inspecting cattle prior to shipping them, and that “a carbon copy of all these issues happened in every country all the way to Mexico.” And when it was clear that screwworms had breached the barrier, responses were sometimes delayed by political disputes — Mexico apparently initially made it very difficult for USDA screwworm flights to operate until the US Agricultural Secretary called to force the issue.

Unfortunately, it looks like we’re going to re-learn how much of a problem screwworm was the hard way.

1

Per the USDA, economic losses from screwworm in the 1930s were estimated to be between $5 and $10 million per year (about $120–240 million per year in 2026 dollars), though others give much higher estimates. C.G. Scruggs, former chairman of the Southwest Animal Health Research Foundation, estimates $30 million a year in losses in the 1930s in wild deer alone.

2

Muller’s insistence that there was any level of radiation, however small, could induce mutations is responsible for the Linear No-Threshold model of radiation damage, and the subsequent “As Low As Reasonably Achievable” (ALARA) policy for radiation exposure at nuclear power plants.

A scientific benefit (and cost) of AI innovation

What changed was that the cost of preliminary exploration collapsed. I could sketch an argument, identify the first serious objections, test whether they were fatal, and reach a provisional verdict in an afternoon rather than a fortnight. This sounds like a simple acceleration, and the more profound effect was on what I was willing to abandon. Dropping a question after an afternoon’s work feels nothing like dropping one after three weeks. When the exploration costs are low, the sunk cost attachment disappears, and you find yourself dropping bad questions earlier and more often, which means the questions you keep are better. I explored far more ideas, and my working portfolio became both larger and better curated. I arrived at this outcome not through any deliberate plan but simply through sustained engagement with a tool that changed what exploration cost.

The skill that improved most, and the one I would never have thought to look for, was something I can only describe as question-identification – the ability to find problems that are both tractable and important. This is the thing an academic career is substantially built on and which nobody, so far as I know, has ever tried to teach directly.

I want to be honest about the costs. My ability to hold together a complex position verbally, under pressure, in a seminar or a conversation, has probably not improved and may have declined somewhat. When preliminary exploration is cheap, you spend less time grinding through arguments from first principles, a grinding that builds fluency that shows up in live exchange. Friends have pressed me on this, and they are right to worry.

That is from Carlo Cordasco, and there is more, via Conor Friedersdorf.

The post A scientific benefit (and cost) of AI innovation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Despite the darkness, I still see signs of hope in America

The last time America celebrated a big anniversary, I was all of three years old. Even so, I retain a few fuzzy memories from a sunny summer afternoon in small-town Michigan: climbing on a cannon in front of the courthouse, watching a parade, and seeing my dad, a veteran and Centreville city councilman, giving a short talk about democracy.

Only later would I realize the significance of the date: July 4th, 1976, America’s bicentennial.

America was imperfect and inconsistent in its approaches to "freedom," but the country had done some big, difficult things in recent decades. We had led the charge to roll back the tide of fascism and Holocaust during World War II. We had begun to confront internal demons through the nonviolent activism of the civil rights movement. And, critically for my own life trajectory, we had landed on the Moon.

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Collections: On the Declaration of Independence

Hello again all. It is once again the week of July 4th and so, as is customary here, I am going to use this week’s post to talk about the United States. This is going to be a bit more of an open musing than an argument as compared to previous years (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025) because my attention has been turned this way and that over the past few weeks and then just when I thought I’d be able to focus on this, one of home ownership’s many annoyances (a busted pipe) cropped up to consume much of the week.

Nevertheless, the Declaration of Independence turns 250 this year – ratified on July 4, published on July 6, read aloud in public on July 8, 1776 – and I want to muse on it a bit, with some focus to the actual text. Americans revere our founding documents (the Declaration and the Constitution) but I fear we do not read them very often. I was a ‘pocket-constitution’ kind of fellow in college, but one is regularly shocked by how little the average American citizen understands about how their government functioned or what the ideals of the framers were and one is regularly disappointed, but very much not shocked, by the endless parade of political entrepreneurs looking to exploit that gap in knowledge.

I will also note, for my international readers, that I think the exercise of looking at these documents is valuable, for the same reason I’ve made my students read Magna Carta or the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen: these are documents of world-historic significance (hardly the only ones, of course, but they make ready examples). At some point, particularly in leftish circles, it became trendy to dismiss the American founding as a mere ‘bourgeois’ revolution in favor of later revolutions in Europe and I think this is a mistake. There quite possibly is no French Revolution without the American one; the cross-pollination of ideas is obvious. The American Revolution (and thus the Declaration) therefore must also play a role in 1848 and it very obvious plays a role in the advance of democracy in Europe after 1945 and again after 1989.

The Declaration of Independence was recognized as a radical, potentially explosive document at the time of its issuance, as we’ll see. And it was explosive: the world of 1775 was one dominated by monarchies with just a tiny handful of traditional republics (which we should not ignore!). It took a long time for the seeds of the declaration to spread, but the world it helped create is one where liberal democracies, while hardly universal (more people have always lived in unfree societies than free ones) represent the most economically and culturally dominant bloc in world affairs – something that had never happened before. The Declaration, in its way, remade not just the Thirteen Colonies, but slowly, surely, as water seeps through the cracks of rocks (or my floorboards, alas), it remade the whole world.

So if you haven’t, go read the text of the Declaration. It isn’t long (but don’t skip!). My thoughts at present don’t necessarily fit together neatly, so we’ll break them down under a few major headings.

The signed copy of the Declaration of Independence displayed in the National Archives in Washington D.C., engrossed by Timothy Matlack.

A Decent Respect to the Opinions of Mankind

When I was growing up, one of the things it was fashionable to argue was that the American Revolution was a ‘conservative’ revolution, in that it did not overturn the social structure of the Thirteen Colonies. Conservatives said this about the revolution to claim it for their own and to distinguish it as the ‘good’ revolution in contrast to those ‘bad’ revolutions in Europe and Latin America. Leftists sometimes did the opposite, terming the revolution ‘conservative,’ unlike ‘real’ revolutions which upended social and economic patterns more completely. And there’s not nothing to this: the revolution did not immediately challenge the socio-economic systems of the Thirteen Colonies (though the notion that the revolution was fundamentally pro-slavery is, at best, quite overstated; it was certainly not an anti-slavery revolution, either, of course).

I think both positions however, are fundamentally wrong, however, in that they miss the inherent radicalism of the principles of the Declaration. Indeed, the framers themselves seem to have only imperfectly understood the course of the rock they were about to set rolling. But they very well understood the momentousness of it.

Now there’s a tendency at this point to jump right to, “We hold these truths…” but let’s start at the beginning.

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

The introduction of the Declaration doesn’t begin with self-evident truths, but rather an assertion that the action of the Declaration demands explanation, that “a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes.” The framing speaks to the radicalism of what the authors (we tend to think of Jefferson as the sole author, but the finished Declaration was very much a creature of committee) are about to do, so radical that decency and respect requires them to explain themselves, not merely to the colonies or to the British Empire but to “mankind.”

The contrast with many similar documents is striking to me. Of course a lot of national declarations declare causes and aims of an action, but in my own – admittedly incomplete – survey, it is quite rare that any imagines that all of mankind needs to be informed. To jump back to the previous examples, Magna Carta calls to witness only John, his subjects and God. The Declaration of the Rights of Man makes its declaration before the “supreme being.” And that makes sense – there is, on some level, no need to inform mankind about those documents, because they pertain only to the people of specific countries (although the Declaration of the Rights of Man clearly has universalist aims).

By contrast, the authors of the Declaration seem very clear-eyed that they are about to make some claims with global, universal significance, that the collection of apple carts they are about to upset is rather larger than just their own. As we’re going to see, they’re right – because they’re not asserting the peculiar rights of Englishmen or British subjects, but rather making an argument about a set of universal rights and principles which might shake thrones and crack crowns the world over. That warning and assumption of responsibility – that the authors understand that the magnitude of their claims here require an explanation – is what leads into the bombshells of the preamble, though the introduction has already tipped its hand to one of them (that a “people” are entitled to a “separate and equal station” and thus able, on their own, to rightly dissolve the bonds that tie them with another).

The Radicalism of the Preamble

That stage-setting swiftly leads us into the Preamble.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security

In the United States, at least, I think we hear these words so often as kids that we lose the sense of their importance and radicalism or even of their plain meaning, the way that if you speak any word enough times over again in a row it starts to feel like gibberish. So what is the preamble saying and why?

Fundamentally, it is building to an argument for the validity of independence in four consecutive points. Notably, whereas today, national independence movements often take it as a granted principle that a people ought to be free to make its own government, ought to be free of the domination of another people (the principle of self-determination), the Declaration assumes its reader thinks the opposite. It assumes a reader who accepts that monarchy and empire are both just and natural, for whom the idea of self-determination is at best dangerous nonsense. And that makes sense – almost none of the peoples in the world the framers knew were self governing (notable exceptions for the Dutch and Swiss). Instead, even when a people had their own country, they were ruled, rather than self-governing – by a king or a closed oligarchy (often a hereditary aristocracy), which often felt little if any cultural commonality with their own commoners.

That system was normal and indeed had been normal since antiquity: self-governing polities are very rare in the pre-modern period. It was not only normal, but normalized: centuries of literature and tradition supported the idea that the right and normal way to organize a society was through authority rather than self-governance. So the Declaration has to go to exceptional lengths to show why this monarchy and this empire have ceded any just claim to govern the colonies. In the process, however, it lays down the argument that leads to that modern assumption of self-determination.

The argument begins with two assertions. The first is a natural law assertion of an equality of rights among men, “that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights.” It is a claim of striking magnitude and remarkable finality – indeed, a claim of such magnitude that it very obviously conflicted with the practice of slavery in the colonies, something some of the framers recognized and then most shamefully did almost nothing about. The Declaration could have asserted those unalienable rights are being particular – to British subjects or Englishmen or Christians, perhaps – but it does not. Instead it insists upon their universality through an argument to natural law, a sensible choice for Thirteen Colonies that already had a multiplicity of faiths and ethnicity in them. Again, if that seems normal to us, it was not normal at the time and indeed is not normal now: most countries are not operated with the notion that anyone has unalienable rights (a reminder that at no point in human history have a majority of countries been anywhere remotely close to free).

We should also note that what the Declaration asserts are not collective rights, but rather individual rights, an important component of liberalism, but an enormous break with most pre-modern social assumptions, which tend to be communal, rather than individual. Compare for instance the ancient Greek notions of autonomia and eleutheria – autonomy and freedom – which in a political sense were really collective rights, possessed by the polis. An individual Athenian did not really have any rights that the Athenian demos – the people at large – were bound to respect. By contrast, the Declaration is asserting that all men individually possess key rights, including the ‘Pursuit of Happiness’ which is rather an expansion of Locke’s original “life, liberty and property” formulation – to me it includes not just a right to property but also a right to make one’s own decisions, to pursue one’s own goals, to not be a tool of the community. Again, this is a really radical rejection of the way most societies had been organized – as Patrician Crone notes, in pre-industrial societies, “the individual existed for the benefit of the overall group, not the other way around.” The Declaration asserts the opposite: the group (governments) exist for the individual.

It seems relevant in this context to note that the United States remains, culturally, an extremely individualistic society (arguably the most so) and it is hard not to see that as both cause and effect of the Declaration’s position here.

The second assertion then follows on the first – drawing from John Locke’s theory of the social contract, the Declaration asserts that “to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.” This is, as we’ve discussed many times, untrue as a matter of historical fact – states emerge as violence-machines, not as machines for the protection of rights. But as an aspirational statement, that governments and states ought to have the protection of rights as their primary purpose, ought to derive their powers from the consent of the governed, it is a powerful statement.

It was also really radical in 1776, at a point when most states on Earth justified their power not from the consent of the governed but rather by divine right: the ruler was chosen by God, or had the Mandate of Heaven, or was of a divine lineage, and so on. The idea that government was by divine sanction was hardly new – we find it in some of the earliest governing documents that still survive. It seems to have been the governing principle of the earliest states, that the social order – with the king on top – was divinely ordained and thus any attempt to challenge it was a rebellion against God or the gods. One sees strains of this in certain forms of Christian nationalism in the United States, which regard either the American form of government or specific American leaders as divinely ordained, but the irony is that the Declaration is quite directly rejecting this vision. “Their Creator” who is also “Nature’s God” does not ordain rulers, rather he endows rights which earthly rulers may not in justice abridge and which humans cannot alienate – which is to say the rights can never be lost, only violated.

The next two points then serve as conclusions which follow these two initial assertions: if individuals have unalienable rights and if governments exist to protect those rights then (this is the third point) a government which fails to protect those rights loses its legitimacy and may be disestablished and therefore (the fourth point) a “long train of abuses and usurpations” can justify revolution.

In short, a government – and it is striking here that the Declaration uses the king as synecdoche (part-for-the-whole) for the whole British government – which greatly fails in its duty of protecting rights loses its legitimacy. Once again, the authors seem to sense how radical that claim is and so they qualify it, making clear that such a decision isn’t to be taken lightly (and it isn’t likely to be taken lightly). The failure of the government in question to protect rights must be extreme to justify the radical cure of revolution, a position which will set up the bill of grievances that make up the actual bulk of the Declaration’s text (but which everyone skips – we shall not).

But before we move to the bill of grievances, I want to take one more chance to push back against the idea that the Declaration is just something ‘small ball’ or something that only mattered for the United States.

The Declaration was recognized as an incendiary, radical, dangerous document at the time. It was banned or suppressed in some European monarchies – not appearing in translation, for instance, in Russia until 1863 or in Spain until 1868; it was outright banned in Spain’s overseas colonies. And it isn’t hard to see why – the language and ideas of the Declaration, building on European political philosophy that had been ‘in the air,’ so to speak, for some time clearly played a role in the cultural foment that culminated in the French Revolution. A European monarch who worried that the publication of the Declaration might endanger their crown was right to worry.

The Bill of Grievances

Which at last brings us to the bill of grievances. Given the above build-up, you can see why the list of grievances are necessary: the Declaration has tried to establish that if a government is sufficiently injurious to the natural rights of its people, it becomes permissible – even required by duty – for those people to abolish and replace it. But of course then they have to show that the government of King George III was, in fact, so injurious. It is an interesting and clearly deliberate choice to frame the grievances as an indictment against George III in particular, even though the framers knew as well as anyone that many of these injuries were the product of policy set by Parliament. On the one hand, George III could stand in for his government symbolically here, but at the same time, I suspect that part of what the authors of the Declaration are trying to summon rhetorically is the notion of ancient tyranny (thus their use of the word). Of course a tyranny could be of Thirty Men as easily as just one, but the designation of a singular tyrant-king lends the whole list a rhetorical punch. “He has…” is just a lot clearer and more effective than, “the King in consultation with his government and the full support of Parliament has…”

Some of the particular grievances have less relevance today (particularly the incitement of war with American Indians), but many of them remain relevant – it isn’t hard in many cases to see specific parts of the Constitution designed to forbid particular grievances from the list.

There’s a tendency to skip over the bill of grievances when reading the Declaration in dramatic readings or classroom contexts and one understands why: compared to the philosophical firebombs of the preamble or the emotional punch of the conclusion, the bill of grievances is rather long and less exciting. But I think it is important because it provides a sense of what kind of government the framers thought might constitute tyranny.

And I must admit it was in this sense that I have been thinking about this document for the past year, because, as I have argued before, I think we are facing a government not merely that I disagree with – that’s not at all new and democracy must mean losing elections as well as winning them – but rather a government, particularly an executive branch, which does aim for “the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States,” in a way that is peculiar to any administration, democratic or republican, that I can think of.

So I provide below an annotated copy of the bill of grievances, with links to note where our current government is doing many of the very things for which we declared, 250 years ago, that it was not merely right, but a duty to throw off British governance. Of course today we have no need of revolution, because we have elections and so may freely change our leaders or even alter the form of our government without violence.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

As the Declaration itself says, “A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.”

What is the Fourth of July For?

The Fourth of July (for Americans) is more than just a day to shoot off fireworks, have parades and cookouts. It is also more than just a day to reflect on the United States’ achievements, which are considerable.

It is also, importantly, a day to reflect on the United States, a country of ideas and valuesnot a nation of blood and soil. It is a day to think about what those ideals are and what we owe them, not in the fuzzy, gauzy, vague sense of flag waving and patriotic music (though those are fun), but in the hard, specific way of articulating what our country is for. And it can be hard: it is obvious to anyone studying American history that the United States did not at its inception live up to the notion that all men were created equal – the founders kept slaves and often behaved cruelly towards Native Americans. Their ideals were better than they were. And where the men failed, the ideals succeeded: the framers failed to abolish slavery, but their ideals eventually – fitfully, with too much delay and bloodshed – succeeded. Their ideals animated the movement for women’s suffrage – even when the Declaration was new, Abigail Adams could note that its principles must logically extend to all women, as well as all men – and the movement for civil rights.

The Declaration is a document that declares, after all, that “all men are created equal.” It does not admit caveats. It does not say “all men, except for the immigrants” – indeed, the opposite, it charges George III with the abuse of “obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners.” Someone seeking to defend the Declaration against all immigration or the extension of natural rights to foreigners is trying to defend the Declaration against itself, against its own values; they are actually at war with the Declaration (just as the Confederates were), though they might not admit it.

It does not say, “all men, except for that religion I don’t like.” Indeed, no less than George Washington makes this point clear in the nature of the Constitution – the ‘user’s manual’ for achieving the aims of the Declaration – that it gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance.” One cannot help but notice that its formulations, “their Creator” and “Nature’s God” are expressly ecumenical – of course quite a few of the framers were deists or otherwise not very religious and it is worth noting that the founders also had no problem respecting Muslims.

Indeed, it is striking to me that while the Declaration in its ideals warmly embraces the immigrant, the fellow with an unfamiliar religion, the families with different lifeways, what is truly foreign to it is the notion that the United States is just some other blood-and-soil nation, that there are ‘heritage Americans’ or that the unalienable rights it asserts do not extend to some people. The authors and signers of the Declaration were brave enough, confident enough in their ideals to say all men; let us be at least half as brave to keep saying all men.

It is a document that demands of us, that demands us to be better, to strive to fulfill its lofty ambitions, to demand our government so strive. To pledge, as the signers did, “our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor” to its principles and the preservation and expansion of the liberties that and subsequent generations won.

The Fourth of July is a day for us to remember what kind of people we are supposed to be and to rededicate ourselves to coming a little closer, inch by inch, to the grand vision on which our country was founded and in so doing perhaps function as a lighthouse guiding other countries as well to a freer future.

Happy Fourth of July. It has been 250 remarkable years. That tremendous legacy is now bequeathed to us and we are duty bound to see these ideals carried forward for another 250 years. Let us, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine providence, pledge our sacred Honor to that.

America the Beautiful, 250 years!

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What Is My American Identity, Really?

I am an American, born in SoCal, where I learned to go at things as I taught myself, jazzy and free-style. It helped that Los Angeles, during my childhood, existed without any burden of tradition. I could make things up as I went along, almost as if my life were a sax solo.

There wasn’t much money in my home town of Hawthorne, California—but totally absent was old money. There were no established families or fancy neighborhoods. (Although my mom joked about some imaginary divide—when I told her that Norman Mailer wrote about Marilyn Monroe’s impoverished childhood in Hawthorne, she griped: “Marilyn grew up on the good side of town!”)

Everything existed in a jumble at the intersection of working class and middle class. My family, like many others, moved back and forth over that divide. My father worked as a servant almost until age forty, then put aside enough money to open up his own shoe store. By Hawthorne standards, this was a big deal.

The richest guy from Hawthorne back then was a real estate developer named Ernest Hahn (one of the inventors of the shopping mall). Hahn had been a poor immigrant’s son, just like my dad. I got to meet him once—he was friendly and remembered everybody’s name, and their spouse’s and children’s names too.

One of Hahn’s first construction projects was a simple job for my grandfather, who ran a liquor store in Hawthorne at the time and needed some work done on the shop. That was a tiny project, but when Hahn died in 1992, the LA Times called him “one of America’s wealthiest men.” Of course, Hahn had moved out of Hawthorne long before. That made perfect sense—my home town was no place for the super-rich.

But I flourished in that working class environment. I believed that my hometown represented America at its best, without much baggage. When I got a scholarship to Oxford some years later, I was shocked by the intense British class consciousness and its latent hostilities. I felt awkward seeing the college servants, especially the college “scout” assigned the job of cleaning my room (a Sisyphean task, that). I was reminded of my father’s years working as a chauffeur for a rich man. How had I stumbled from one side of the divide to the other?

The United States isn’t really a society without economic classes, but it looks that way from the perspective of Oxford. Christopher Hitchens summed up the British attitude in an anecdote:

An old joke has an Oxford professor meeting an American former graduate student and asking him what he’s working on these days. ‘My thesis is on the survival of the class system in the United States.’ ‘Oh really, that’s interesting: one didn’t think there was a class system in the United States.’ ‘Nobody does. That’s how it survives.’

I now realize that going overseas was the fastest way for me to understand what it meant to be an American. It’s perhaps amusing or tragic that the people I’ve met in other countries often have a clearer image of Yankees than I do myself.

The Statue of Liberty (photo by Carlos Fernandez)

I’ve always had confusing notions about my identity. My father was Sicilian and my mother Mexican. And there are also Native American and Swedish strands in my convoluted DNA.

So what am I exactly? What is my American identity?

My great-grandfather Jesus Ortez on the left; me at a comparable age on the right.

I look white enough and that’s how others view me. But I’ve never really been certain about that—to this day I hate filling out forms that ask for my ethnic identify. It’s even stranger for my children, because my wife’s father is from India, and her mother’s family came from Ireland.

So we are a confusing breed in my household, straddling at least six different ethnic groups from three continents. But there’s at least consolation in the fact that we can celebrate almost every holiday—from St. Patrick’s Day to Cinco de Mayo—with some authenticity.


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By the way, I think this ambiguity is why my Sicilian relatives have such close relationships with Jews—yes, that’s true in real life, and not just Mafia movies. When I tell most people that I’m unsure whether Sicilians really classify as white, they look at me like I’m crazy. But my Jewish friends understand—we both straddle that uncertain territory between insider and outsider.

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Types of Tornado Alert

I hate the unearthly sound my phone makes when the weather service issues a tornado harbinger.

Friday 3 July 1663

Up and he home, and I with Sir J. Minnes and Sir W. Batten by coach to Westminster, to St. James’s, thinking to meet Sir G. Carteret, and to attend the Duke, but he not coming we broke up, and so to Westminster Hall, and there meeting with Mr. Moore he tells me great news that my Lady Castlemaine is fallen from Court, and this morning retired. He gives me no account of the reason of it, but that it is so: for which I am sorry: and yet if the King do it to leave off not only her but all other mistresses, I should be heartily glad of it, that he may fall to look after business. I hear my Lord Digby is condemned at Court for his speech, and that my Lord Chancellor grows great again. Thence with Mr. Creed, whom I called at his chamber, over the water to Lambeth; but could not, it being morning, get to see the Archbishop’s hearse: so he and I walked over the fields to Southwark, and there parted, and I spent half an hour in Mary Overy’s Church, where are fine monuments of great antiquity, I believe, and has been a fine church. Thence to the Change, and meeting Sir J. Minnes there, he and I walked to look upon Backwell’s design of making another alley from his shop through over against the Exchange door, which will be very noble and quite put down the other two.

So home to dinner and then to the office, and entered in my manuscript book the Victualler’s contract, and then over the water and walked to see Sir W. Pen, and sat with him a while, and so home late, and to my viall. So up comes Creed again to me and stays all night, to-morrow morning being a hearing before the Duke. So to bed full of discourse of his business.

Read the annotations

Links 7/3/26

Links for you. Science:

Capital punishment is not a breeding program. No, medieval execution didn’t “genetically pacify” Europe
DC’s fireworks supershow this year could be a smoke-filled mess
SARS-CoV-2 saltational events are recurrent and trace to persistent human infections
Confirmed Detections of New World Screwworm
6 things to know about heat illness
New disease threats follow Trump administration’s health program cuts

Other:

Bystander “Shot by Taser by US Marshals” in Columbia Heights
Five Words That Changed America
The Kingmaker Mayor: Mamdani just taught Democrats an important lesson on Tuesday—will they listen?
Neither Victory nor Liberation: After Three Years of War, We Need a Palestinian State Side by Side With Israel
Egg producers will pay $3.3M and donate 53 million eggs to settle price-fixing claims
Grand jury indicts Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill
Mom Claimed Vaccines Killed Her 18-Month-Old Twins. Now She’s Charged with Murdering Them
Trump Has Made the National Mall a Tribute to His Squalid Corruption
Tom Kean Jr. Sought Help for Depression. He Hasn’t Made It Easy for Others to Do the Same.
The Key Ways Trump’s Financial Interests Intersect With Government Policy
How Trump Plans to Crush Fast-Food Workers
The AI Industry Is Losing
‘Rush Project at Request of POTUS’: Money once used for crucial national-park repairs is now financing Trump’s redecorating projects.
Michigan’s Mega-Deals Are a Warning to Everyone. Billions of dollars for only hundreds of jobs.
What do you get for the world’s richest man? A wildlife refuge.
MAHA is breaking up with Trump. Now what?
Crypto, real estate, watches: How Trump made over $1 billion last year
Small Towns Struggling to Celebrate July 4 After DOGE Axed Their Funds
Trump’s not an urbanist president. Do we have to say this?
Donors were misled by Trump-backed Freedom 250, House Democrats allege. The lawmakers’ report alleges that Trump allies worked to divert funds away from America250, a bipartisan effort to mark the nation’s semiquincentennial. Freedom 250 denies the allegations.
The violence specialists
Some thoughts from the parking lot of RFK Stadium
Trump Administration Delivers Lucrative Win for Its Kratom Allies
Silicon Valley’s Reactor Projects
Michigan lawmakers weigh safety measures after Temple Israel attack

A Great Week for Crime Stats in D.C.

As of 9am today, D.C. had reported no homicides this week, bringing the total for the year to 42* (apparently, one homicide is no longer considered a homicide, so technically we were never at 43 homicides). Last year, during the same time period, we had 83 homicides, and in the surge year of 2023, there were 119 homicides. After increasing last week, most other crimes trended down this week.

We are still well on pace for another 33 percent drop in homicides for the third straight year.

Hopefully, the heat won’t lead to any murders (it’s hot out there!), and we’ll have another great week next week.

*Three of the 45 murders reported this year actually occurred in other years (e.g., a missing persons case from 2023 turned into a homicide case this year with new evidence).

The most profitable crypto investors and firms

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Here is the source.  Here is from the editors at The Free Press.  Here is more from .

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What has happened to Saturn's moon Iapetus? What has happened to Saturn's moon Iapetus?


Do falling birth rates boost per capita income?

The secular decline in birth rates across the globe over the past seven decades has slowed population growth, raised average ages, and reshaped labor markets and the macroeconomy. Contrary to the widespread expectation that these trends hamper economic growth, we find lower birth rates are associated with higher growth in GDP per working-age adult across countries and higher wage growth across US commuting zones, with no negative impact on aggregate GDP or earnings. These patterns are not explained by educational upgrading, rising female labor force participation, the declining importance of agriculture, or neoclassical-Solow mechanisms. We argue that they reflect the endogenous, labor-saving response of technology to the scarcity of younger workers. Consistent with this interpretation, countries and regions with lower birth rates exhibit more labor-saving patents and growing high-tech activity. There is also higher TFP growth across countries and industries. Exploiting cross-country variation in WWII military and civilian deaths, we find that declines in younger population, rather than population size per se, drive our results.

Here is the full paper by Acemoglu, Autor, Beirne, and Scott.  Via Philip Heimburger.

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Friday assorted links

1. Rohit is solving for the AI equilibrium.

2. Robin Hanson explains his political evolution.

3. Restoring the Book of Kells.

4. More Scott Sumner movie reviews.

5. Peter Howitt YouTube talk on golf? (I have not heard)

6. “Academics need to change, not the AI.

7. I answer questions about AI for Berkman Klein Center.

8. On late Dylan.

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An Update on Colorado

Yesterday in my wrap up of the primary results out of Colorado I said that incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper had defeated challenger Julie Gonzales pretty handily, though 43% for a challenger is still very, very high against someone so entrenched in the state’s politics. The last time I’d looked it was roughly 57% to 43%, still a big showing for a challenger but a fairly comfortable margin.

It didn’t stay there. We’re now at just over 97% of the vote counted and the margin is 53% to 47%. Horseshoes and hand grenades and all that. And yes, I looked at the numbers and even if it gets closer I believe it is mathematically impossible for Gonzales to catch up. But that’s a much closer margin. And Hickenlooper massively outspent Gonzales, though that’s usually the nature of these races. He could have easily gone down to defeat.

I’ll repeat the point I’ve made in a few emails and on Bluesky. I think you need at least a couple incumbent Democratic senators to be defeated in primaries to shift the posture of the caucus to make Court reform possible in 2029, assuming a trifecta. Maybe I’m wrong. A few people have told me I’m being too pessimistic or that the Court’s ongoing corruption will push senators in the right direction. Maybe. But I’m one of the most bullish on chance’s of reform happening. And I’m not sure or confident of that at all. In any case, hope is not a plan. The stakes are too high.

The point isn’t that Hickenlooper is a bad guy and even the worst of the Democratic senators. I’m definitely not trying to demonize him or single him out. The issue is more that he’s part of the center of gravity of the Senate Democratic caucus which remains institutionalist, cautious and generally unwilling to rock the boat or respond aggressively to the moment. From what I can tell Hickenlooper was a really effective and good public servant through a couple decades before getting to the Senate. Voters agreed and elected him again and again, as mayor, governor and finally senator.

But not everyone is meant for the moment. As I told someone yesterday, I would be shocked if Hickenlooper became a Sinema/Manchin type figure standing against a caucus consensus in favor of reform. It’s more that if those kinds of comity-focused institutionalists are the caucus’s center of gravity, you’re just never going to get there. A few examples have to be made to shift the balance and signal what’s now required of congressional Democrats.

Faith Following the Flood Churches Provided More Than Spiritual Support After Helene — They Offered Sanctuary

Religion has always been vital to the region of Western North Carolina, from traditional Cherokee beliefs to modern multi-campus church complexes. Here, faith is more than a conviction; it’s a way of life.


CLICK BELOW TO PLAY THIS STORY’S SOUNDSCAPE

Nearly 70% of North Carolinians claim an affiliation with religious organizations, but even those with no spiritual background were welcomed by churches after tropical storm Helene took their homes and disconnected them from necessities such as drinkable water, food, gas, shelter and even their cell phones.

No story about the aftermath of Helene is complete without a nod toward the churches that worked within their communities. From Grace Covenant Presbyterian Church in the city of Asheville to the Episcopal Church of the Transfiguration in the tiny, unincorporated community of Bat Cave, residents had a place to turn. What follows is a tour of five houses of worship in Asheville and beyond, rendered in original watercolors, that are on the frontlines of continued recovery from Helene.

Tap Any Church Below to Explore Its Story

This article is part of Caught in the Current: Helene Recovery in Asheville and Beyond  a project that we have partnered on with the School of Journalism at Northeastern University.  Their enterprising students took on the story of Asheville, North Carolina, a community still dealing with the devastation of Hurricane Helene, 18 months later. As part of our mentoring program, we’re amplifying their efforts by sharing the amazing work produced by their students. Visit the official interactive magazine for the project HERE.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

The post Faith Following the Flood Churches Provided More Than Spiritual Support After Helene — They Offered Sanctuary appeared first on DCReport.org.

Politics Chat, July 2, 2026

Politics Chat, July 2, 2026

July 2, 2026

On July 2, 1776, the Second Continental Congress passed a “Resolution for Independence” declaring “That these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States, that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain is, and ought to be, totally dissolved.”

Also known as the “Lee Resolution,” after Virginia delegate Richard Henry Lee, who had proposed it, the resolution was the final break between the king and the thirteen colonies on the North American continent that would later become the United States of America.

The path to independence had been neither obvious nor easy.

In 1763, at the end of what was known in the colonies as the French and Indian War, there was little indication that the colonies were about to start their own nation. The war had brought an economic boom to the colonies, and with the French giving up control of land to the west, Euro-American colonists were giddy at the prospect of moving across the Appalachian Mountains. Impressed that the king had been willing to expend such effort to protect the colonies, they were proud of their identity as members of the British empire.

That enthusiasm soon waned.

To guard against another expensive war between colonists and Indigenous Americans, the king’s ministers and Parliament prohibited colonists from crossing the Appalachians. Then, to replenish the treasury after the last war, they passed a number of revenue laws. In 1765 they enacted the Stamp Act, which placed a tax on printed material in the colonies, everything from legal documents and newspapers to playing cards.

The Stamp Act shocked colonists, who saw in it a central political struggle that had been going on in England for more than a century: could the king be checked by the people? Colonists were not directly represented in Parliament and believed they were losing their fundamental liberty as Englishmen to have a say in their government. They responded to the Stamp Act with widespread protests.

In 1766, Parliament repealed the Stamp Act but linked that repeal to the Declaratory Act, which claimed for Parliament “full power and authority to make laws and statutes…to bind the colonies and people of America…in all cases whatsoever.” This act echoed the 1719 Irish Declaratory Act, which asserted that Ireland was subordinate to the British king and Parliament. It also imposed new taxes.

As soon as news of the Declaratory Act and the new taxes reached Boston in 1767, the

Massachusetts legislature circulated a letter to the other colonies standing firm on the right to equality in the British empire. Local groups boycotted taxed goods and broke into warehouses whose owners they thought were breaking the boycott. In 1768, British officials sent troops to Boston to restore order.

Events began to move faster and faster. In March 1770, British soldiers in Boston shot into a crowd of men and boys harassing them, killing five and wounding six others. Tensions calmed when Parliament in 1772 removed all but one of the new taxes—the tax on tea—but then, in May 1773, it tried to bail out the failing East India Company by giving it a monopoly on tea sales in the colonies. The result would be cheaper tea in the colonies, convincing people to buy it and thus establishing Parliament’s right to impose the tax.

Ships carrying the East India tea sailed for the colonies in fall 1773, but mass protests convinced the ships headed to every city but Boston to return to England. In Boston the royal governor was determined to land the cargo. On December 16, 1773, men dressed as Indigenous Americans boarded the Dartmouth, tied to a wharf in Boston Harbor, and tossed the tea overboard. Parliament promptly closed the port of Boston, strangling its economy.

In fall 1774, worried colonial delegates met as the First Continental Congress in Carpenters’ Hall in Philadelphia to figure out how to stand together against tyranny. In Massachusetts a provincial congress stockpiled weapons and supplies in Concord and called for towns to create companies of men who could be ready to fight on a minute’s notice.

British officials were determined to end the rebellion once and for all. They ordered General Thomas Gage to arrest Boston leaders Samuel Adams and John Hancock, who were rumored to be in Lexington, and to seize the supplies in Concord. On the night of April 18, 1775, the soldiers set out. The next morning, on the Lexington town green, the British regulars found several dozen minutemen waiting for them. The locals began to disperse when ordered to, but then a shot cracked through the darkness. The regulars opened fire. Eight locals were killed, another dozen wounded.

The regulars marched on to Concord, where they found that most of the supplies had been removed. Then, when they turned to march back to Boston, they found their retreat cut off by minutemen firing from behind boulders, trees, and farmhouses. Seventy-three regular soldiers were killed, another 174 were wounded, and 26 were missing. There were 96 colonial casualties: 49 killed, 41 wounded, and 5 missing.

Before disbanding the year before, the First Continental Congress had agreed to meet again if circumstances seemed to require it. After the events at Lexington and Concord, the delegates regrouped in Philadelphia in late spring 1775, down the street from Carpenters’ Hall in the Pennsylvania State House, a building that we now know as Independence Hall.

The Second Continental Congress agreed to pull the military units around Boston into a Continental Army and put George Washington of Virginia in charge of it. But delegates also wrote directly to the king, emphasizing that they were “your Majesty’s faithful subjects.” They blamed the trouble between him and the colonies on “many of your Majesty’s Ministers,” who had “dealt out” “delusive presences, fruitless terrors, and unavailing severities” and forced the colonists to arm themselves in self-defense. They begged the king to use his power to restore harmony with the colonies. By the time the Olive Branch Petition made it to England in fall 1775, the king had already declared the colonies to be in rebellion.

In January 1776 a 47-page pamphlet, published in Philadelphia by newly-arrived immigrant Thomas Paine, provided the spark that inspired his new countrymen to make the leap from blaming the king’s ministers for their troubles to blaming the king himself. “In the following pages I offer nothing more than simple facts, plain arguments, and common sense,” Paine wrote.

Paine rejected the idea that any man could be born to rule others, and he ridiculed the idea that an island should try to govern a continent. “Where…is the King of America?” Paine asked in Common Sense. “I’ll tell you Friend…so far as we approve of monarchy…in America THE LAW IS KING. For as in absolute governments the King is law, so in free countries the law ought to be King; and there ought to be no other.

“A government of our own is our natural right: And when a man seriously reflects on the precariousness of human affairs, he will become convinced, that it is infinitely wiser and safer, to form a constitution of our own in a cool deliberate manner, while we have it in our power, than to trust such an interesting event to time and chance. If we omit it now, some [dictator] may hereafter arise, who laying hold of popular disquietudes, may collect together the desperate and the discontented, and by assuming to themselves the powers of government, may sweep away the liberties of the continent like a deluge.”

“We have it in our power,” Paine wrote, “to begin the world over again.”

As Common Sense swept the colonies, people echoed Paine’s call for American independence. By April 1776, states were writing their own declarations of independence, and a Virginia convention asked the Second Continental Congress to consider declaring “the United Colonies free and independent States, absolved from all allegiance to, or dependence upon, the Crown or Parliament of Great Britain.” On June 7, Lee put the resolution forward. Four days later, the Congress appointed a committee to draft such a declaration.

Congress left time for reluctant delegates to come around to the resolution, so it was not until July 2 that the measure passed. “The Second Day of July 1776, will be the most memorable Epocha, in the History of America,” Massachusetts delegate John Adams wrote to his wife, Abigail. While we celebrate Congress’s approval of the final form of the Declaration of Independence two days later, the adoption of the Lee Resolution marked the delegates’ ultimate conviction that a nation should rest not on the arbitrary rule of a single man and his hand-picked advisors, but on the rule of law.

Notes:

https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/contcong_07-08-75.asp

John M. Barry, Roger Williams and the Creation of the American Soul: Church, State, and the Birth of Liberty (New York: Viking, 2012).

https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/lee-resolution

https://www.masshist.org/digitaladams/archive/doc

https://www.nps.gov/mima/learn/historyculture/april-19-1775.htm

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Rocket Report: Indian startup nears first launch; SpaceX's millenary milestone

Welcome to Edition 9.01 of the Rocket Report! Back in January, I wrote about the 20 launches and landings we were most excited about in 2026. The list included things that were, at the time, officially scheduled to occur this year. I also gave my own view of the probability of each of these events actually happening before December 31. Halfway through the year, we can only count one of the events as completed, and that was NASA's Artemis II mission in April. Many are now scheduled for next year, proving again that delays are a constant in the space industry. A couple of them—such as the launch of NASA's Roman Space Telescope—do appear to be on track to happen soon.

As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets, as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Swift Boost Mission reaches orbit. A pioneering commercial mission to reboost the orbit of NASA's Swift astronomy satellite launched early Friday after attempts earlier in the week were thwarted by bad weather and a technical issue. The Link servicing satellite developed by Katalyst Space Technologies soared to orbit on the tip of a Northrop Grumman Pegasus XL rocket that dropped from the belly of a modified L-1011 jetliner over the remote Pacific Ocean. Mission managers called off two launch attempts Tuesday and Wednesday due to poor weather around the L-1011's staging base on Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands. On Thursday, "a launch vehicle issue temporarily prevented teams from deploying the rocket" after takeoff of the L-1011.

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Chinese satellite manufacturer Hongqing raises $191 million

HELSINKI — Hongqing Technology, the satellite manufacturing affiliate of launch firm Landspace, has secured one of the largest single raises for a Chinese commercial satellite maker. The funding round, announced […]

The post Chinese satellite manufacturer Hongqing raises $191 million appeared first on SpaceNews.

Flock Cameras Can Surveil Cars Without License Plates

This is from a 2024 company presentation:

Officers can also tap into data showing a car’s decals, bumper stickers, back and top racks—along with temporary and unique state tags.

Flock calls it a “Vehicle Fingerprint” and it’s touted as a way for law enforcement officials to get more information “even when you don’t have full plate information,” the company’s presentation shows.

The company gives police officers the ability to search that data as well, to “build stronger cases with less information upfront.” That includes being able to locate multiple vehicles law enforcement officials believe are moving together and what Flock calls a “multi geo search.”

This kind of thing is older than AI; I wrote about it in my 2014 book Beyond Fear. Edward Snowden revealed that the NSA was using cell phone location data to track phones that were habitually near each other.

As bad as Flock is, remember that anyone with broad access to cell phone location data can do the same thing.

New Horizons: Pushing Toward the ‘Termination Shock’

Mission planning for any future star probe will adjust not only for conditions in the interstellar medium but also the Solar System’s outer reaches. Let’s confine ourselves for now to conditions in the outer heliosphere. Currently we have precisely one spacecraft operating here. New Horizons has only reached 65 AU from the Sun, while Voyager 1 exited the heliopause in 2012 at 121 AU, and Voyager 2 crossed in 2018 at about 119 AU. New Horizons won’t have sufficient power to keep taking data as it makes its own crossing in the 2040s, but from its current position in the Kuiper Belt we can look back at what the spacecraft has reported so far about the solar wind and the local interstellar medium.

New Horizons’ Solar Wind Around Pluto (SWAP) instrument is the key here, examining how the solar wind slows as we leave the inner system behind. A new study from Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) points out what happens as this stream of hot ionized hydrogen and helium nuclei fills the heliosphere. The wind’s speed varies, some 300 to 500 kilometers per second from sources near the solar equator and up to 600-800 km/s from regions near the corona.

You would expect this ‘wind’ to cool as it begins to push against the interstellar medium, and indeed it does, forming the termination shock that both Voyagers have penetrated and crossed, and toward which New Horizons now moves. It’s at the termination shock that we see a sharp drop in the solar wind speed that indicates the outer boundary, the heliopause, is approaching. New Horizons should still be functional when it reaches the termination shock, conceivably as early as the end of this decade. Voyager 1 found it at 94 AU, Voyager 2 at 84 AU, reminding us how malleable the heliosphere is as its outer boundaries adjust to the onset of interstellar plasma.

Image: An SwRI-led study sheds light on the deceleration of the solar wind as it journeys away from the Sun and interacts with and picks up interstellar material. NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft measured the solar wind as it traveled from just beyond Uranus’ orbit into the outer Kuiper Belt (red shaded region), detailing the gradual slowdown caused by interactions with interstellar materials (red line). Credit: SwRI.

We can learn a great deal as we accumulate data on solar wind interactions in the outer heliosphere. SwRI’s Heather Elliott led the study. Says Elliott:

“Eventually, the solar wind reaches the outer boundaries of the heliosphere — the sphere of influence where the solar wind affects the space environment — where it interacts with incoming interstellar material. The shape and properties of these heliospheric boundaries control the amount of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) that can enter our solar system and reach Earth. Therefore, the data from New Horizons combined with observations from other missions, such as IBEX, IMAP and Voyager will enhance our understanding of the edge of the solar system.”

So far, the data have been useful as New Horizons keeps moving outward. Along the way, the solar wind begins to run into neutral gas particles that have entered the heliosphere from the outside interstellar medium. The interaction with the solar wind, in which these atoms become ionized, adds mass to the solar wind, Elliott adds. And that is the mechanism for slowing the wind down.

In previous years, we have learned that between 30 and 43 AU, the solar wind has slowed 5 to 10 percent in comparison to its value near Earth. This is from data not only from New Horizons but also Voyager 2. Assuming New Horizons is still operational when it hits the termination shock, we would expect to see a sharp drop in the speed of the solar wind. In fact, Voyager 2 found a 46 percent drop in speed at the termination shock at its distance of 84 AU.

And note this from the paper:

The drop in speed in the Voyager 2 TS [termination shock] measurements was dramatic. At the Voyager 2 TS crossing, the speed went from ∼320 down to ∼140 km s−1 a few days after the crossing, corresponding to a ∼ 56% speed reduction across the TS (J. D. Richardson & E. C. Stone 2009). A sudden speed drop of 56% would be large and steep enough to readily confirm that NH crossed the TS. Unlike Voyager 2, the SWAP instrument on NH also measures interstellar hydrogen pickup ions, such that the modification of the TS by the interstellar pickup ions will be measured at the upcoming NH TS crossing.

As a sidenote, it’s worth remembering that there is no clear boundary here. Indeed, the shape of the entire heliosphere flexes and churns in response to ambient conditions and thus is partially dependent on the clouds of interstellar material the Sun is moving through at the time. At present, we are in the whimsically named ‘Local Fluff,’ part of the Local Interstellar Cloud, and near or perhaps already edging into a region called the G-Cloud, a prominent citizen of which is the system called Alpha Centauri. In any case, we’ve learned from the IBEX (Interstellar Boundary Explorer) satellite that the interactions on the heliosphere paint a picture of a dynamic, changing shape as opposed to the smooth ‘bubble’ that is often depicted in artist renderings of the heliosphere.

IBEX and its successor satellite IMAP (Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe) carry an interesting message of their own: We can continue to learn without having an actual set of instruments on the scene. In sharp contrast to New Horizons, these two spacecraft work by remote sensing, detecting energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) produced in the interaction of the solar wind with neutral atoms at the heliopause. So we have one satellite in a highly elliptical Earth orbit (IBEX) and another at the L1 Lagrange point, both of them helping us to understand conditions at the termination shock and beyond.

As Elliott pointed out in that first quote above, conditions in the heliosphere’s boundary with the LISM matter if for nothing else because of the dangers posed by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), leading to issues of spacecraft design both for manned as well as unmanned missions. It’s good to know that New Horizons is on the case and will remain so, but for how long? What I’m hearing is that the spacecraft’s Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) should be able to keep observations and return of data robust through the end of this decade, but as with the Voyagers, we’re moving toward the end of active life.

What will replace our one source in the outer heliosphere? The need for resources in and beyond the Kuiper Belt should have us moving toward mission designs and propulsion options that go beyond chemical methods. Sail missions like the Solar Gravitational Lens mission now being developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory continue to intrigue me, particularly as we begin to explore assembly options enroute to deliver the largest possible payload. We will need precursor ‘sundiver’ missions as we test out these technologies.

The paper is Elliott, “The Gradual Slowing of the Solar Wind in the Outer Heliosphere,” The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 1001, Number 1 (3 April 2026). Full text.

“Voluntary, Unpaid, and Handsomely Rewarded: Donor Benefits in the World's Whole-Blood Systems,” by Krawiec and Roth

 Around the world, "non-compensation" of blood donors allows for a variety of incentives.

Kimberly D. Krawiec and Alvin E. Roth, “Voluntary, Unpaid, and Handsomely Rewarded: Donor Benefits in the World's Whole-Blood Systems,” SSRN, Virginia Law and Economics Research Paper No. 2026-12,  1 July 2026, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7030818  

 Abstract
The ideal of the unpaid blood donor is nearly universal; the practice is more complicated. Whole-blood systems around the world preserve a formal commitment to voluntary, nonremunerated donation-and then provide donors with gift cards, sweepstakes entries, cash "expense allowances," paid leave, tax relief, priority service, medals, and, in some places, extra points on a child's school exam. This Essay maps the gap between label and practice. Drawing on examples from thirteen countries spanning five continents, it organizes donor benefits by institutional mechanism: gift cards and sweepstakes; direct monetary transfers; paid work leave; other material and recognition-based benefits; and replacement donation and the informal cash markets it can generate. We demonstrate that "voluntary, nonremunerated donation" frequently coexists with substantial material benefits. Whole-blood donors nearly always receive something of value in exchange for their generosity; what varies is how those benefits are structured, funded, routed, and legally classified. 

 

Jurisdiction

Representative donor benefits

Legal classification / routing

United States

Nontransferable gift cards; sweepstakes (e.g., Super Bowl LX trip; $5,000–$7,000 raffles); promotional items (shirts, mugs, bags, movie tickets).

“Volunteer donor” label retained where benefits are not readily convertible to cash; sweepstakes framed as “no donation necessary.”

South Korea

Promotional K-pop photo cards; vendor and restaurant vouchers (5,000–8,000 won); merchandise; transferable blood-donation card.

Prohibited “consideration” distinguished from “commemorative gifts” and donor encouragement.

Kazakhstan

~$18.75 (2 MCI) for reimbursable donation; ~$2.34 meal equivalent for gratuitous donation.

Categorized as payment; reimbursable donation invited for shortages and rare types.

Bulgaria

Payment in narrow statutory cases (shortage, vaccine/serum/immunoglobulin production, research/diagnostics).

Voluntary/unremunerated rule with “against payment” exceptions.

Germany

Direct monetary transfers at some collection centers; refreshments and health checks only at DRK.

Aufwandsentschädigung” (expense allowance), set per collection service.

China

Family exam-point awards (Pujiang: 1–3 points); platelet shopping cards $31–$386; paid leave, tax benefits; prepaid phone/transport cards, movie tickets.

“Gratuitous” system plus “appropriate subsidies”; tolerated monetary-equivalent and family-directed rewards.

South Africa

Data/streaming vouchers, raffles, merchandise; private wellness rewards (Discovery Vitality, Momentum, Bonitas).

Donor benefits supplied through blood-service promotions and private wellness programs.

Brazil

One paid day off per 12 months (private employees); donation-day leave (public servants); 120-day priority service at banks, hospitals, etc.

Donation converted into paid-leave entitlement and legally recognized priority status.

Spain

Donor medals, honors, and milestone recognition.

Recognition-based; no direct monetary transfer.

India

Replacement donation; illicit “professional donor” cash market.

Patient-side payment associated with replacement donation.

Nigeria

Tokens, certificates, badges, transport refunds; in practice 68% family replacement and 12.2% commercial donors.

Patient-side payment associated with replacement donation; commercial donors openly reported in donor categories.

Sierra Leone

Predominantly family replacement donors (~90%); paid donors recorded as replacement donors.

Patient-side payment associated with replacement donation; paid donors recorded as family replacement donors.

Argentina

Post-donation meal; medical certificate; 24-hour work-absence justification; 2026 shift away from replacement model.

Statutory donor benefits plus replacement-donation phase-out.

 

"If there is a lesson in this tour of the world’s whole-blood systems, it is that “voluntary, nonremunerated donation” is a phrase asked to carry a great deal of freight. It accommodates a $7,000 gift card, so long as the gift card is offered through a sweepstakes that does not require a blood donation to enter. It accommodates €60 in cash, so long as the cash is legally categorized as an expense allowance. It accommodates extra points on a child’s high-school entrance exam, paid leave, free public transit, priority service at the bank, and a tote bag—often all while the governing statute insists that blood may not be given for reward. "

The End of North America

Opinion | Blocking the Gordie Howe bridge to Canada is economic malpractice  - The Washington Post

In what would be major news except for all the other disasters happening, Donald Trump has declined to renew the USMCA — the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement — which he himself negotiated. This puts businesses on notice that tariff-free shipments within North America, which NAFTA supposedly made permanent, may go away.

Some commentators have dismissed this as no big deal, because Trump’s successor will probably reverse his decision and make the USMCA permanent after all. However, this misses the point of such agreements. Before NAFTA went into effect, North American tariffs were already low. The average tariff imposed by the US on imports from Mexico was only 2 percent. But NAFTA gave more than tariff relief. It gave, or seemed to give, certainty: businesses could invest in border-spanning supply chains confident that they would be able to use these chains for many years to come.

Or, as it turns out, not, if we have a U.S. president who doesn’t care about breaking promises.

Bloomberg ran a segment about all of this, with a substantial part coming from an interview I had with David Westin a few weeks ago:

Transcript:

Westin We start with the poster child for North American trade, the auto industry. Since the USMCA’s predecessor, NAFTA, came into effect over 30 years ago, autos have been at the center of negotiations. The reason is simple. The industry is tightly integrated across northern and southern US borders, borders like the one between Detroit, Michigan and Windsor, Ontario. This is the brand new Gordie Howe International Bridge that spans the Detroit River, separating the Motor City from Windsor. It was named for the famed hockey player who was born in Canada but crossed the border to lead the Detroit Red Wings to four Stanley Cups. Canada paid for the bridge, but now President Trump has put its opening on hold, which in itself is unlikely to divide the two cities’ economies.

Krugman Those are not really separate cities. There just happens to be a borderline through them.

Westin Economist Paul Krugman won the Nobel Prize for his work on trade.

Krugman Stuff does go back and forth. There’s a tremendous amount of specialization, which is good for everybody. It reduces costs, increases efficiency.

Westin: One of the companies benefiting from that back and forth trade is Linamar, a manufacturer with headquarters outside of Toronto. Jim Jarrell is its CEO.

Jarrell So we’re 60 years old and really I think when you look at Linamar, we’re an advanced manufacturing and product design technology company with 37,000 people global, 87 facilities around the world.

Westin: When we talk about the auto part of Linamar’s business, how much of your production goes across either the Canadian-U.S. border or the U.S.-Mexican border or for that matter Canada-Mexico?

Jarrell I would say a ton. There is so much interconnection, integration between it. And I think we’ve demonstrated this before. We have one part that we do for an OEM customer, two OEMs in the U.S. and the original part that we get is a forging that comes into Mexico, which goes into the U.S. to get some further processing, comes into Canada for further processing, back to the U.S. for further processing, over to Canada where we do the sort of final assembly, and then that gets distributed back into the U.S.as well as Mexico and Canadian auto plants. So again, you can see this full integration Of this, you know, supply chain in the automotive North American area. And one thing we say is you can’t unbake the omelet, right?

Manufacturing has become a regional game.

Westin: Shannon O’Neil is the director of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, author of the book, “The Globalization Myth, Why Regions Matter,” and a Bloomberg opinion contributor.

O’Neil The strength, frankly, of the U.S. auto industry is really a North American auto industry. It is that because cars and car parts are produced across Mexico, Canada, and the United States, they are strong, they are competitive and they’re affordably priced. And it’s that connection, those supply chains across North America that are important for autos. important for all kinds of manufacturing.

Westin: Given how the, I’ll call it, North American auto industry has evolved, is it even possible to cut off imports and exports of automobiles and auto parts between the United States and Canada and/or Mexico?

O’Neil There’s a real question if we didn’t have NAFTA, if we didn’t have USMCA, would we have a North American car industry at all, if we didn’t have the economies of scale of production that have now developed over North America? Could we bring back just a U.S.-produced car? Sure, we could, but it would be a much more expensive car. It would likely be a less innovative car in terms of the parts that go into it. And it would be really hard to compete against imports from Japan, South Korea, Europe,and other places.

Westin: The USMCA may have been a win-win for auto industry companies like Linamar and for American consumers, but it hasn’t necessarily addressed President Trump’s underlying concerns about the balance of trade between the U.S. and either Canada or Mexico. For 2025, the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico was nearly $200 billion, with Canada about $46 billion. But O’Neill says regardless of the trade deficit, President Trump is underestimating the extent to which the U.S. needs trade both ways with both Canada and Mexico.

Jarrell What we see is a big influx of goods coming from Mexico to the United States. It’s now the number one exporter to the United States, or U.S. importer. In part, that’s replacing Chinese trade. In part, that is just the strength of North American supply chains and the back and forth of goods and services that move there. But we also need to remember that Mexico and Canada are the number one export markets for U.S. companies, for U.S. products that go out into the world. So we are very dependent on them as they are on us.

Westin: Another concern often expressed by President Trump when it comes to trade, particularly in the auto industry, is the loss of jobs, something Krugman admits is real, but not really the fault of the USMCA. What do you say to people from my home state of Michigan who hear President Trump say, you know, that’s a good idea? We’re going to actually have some barriers put up so that we have more of those plants in Michigan, in Ohio, so we have better jobs? Because we have lost a lot of those jobs.

Krugman We have lost a lot of jobs, but it’s not mostly because of NAFTA, right? I still call it NAFTA, sorry, it’s a lot easier given that Trump keeps changing the name. But anyway, do we have fewer manufacturing jobs in the United States, do we have fewer auto jobs in the United States because of the USMCA? I think that’s highly doubtful. The idea that somehow turning our back on the world here is going to add jobs is probably wrong.

Westin: And then there’s China, not part of USMCA negotiations, but always a specter in the room.

Krugman China is looming over all of these negotiations and this real worry about China selling products into the United States using Mexico or Canada as a backdoor in, right, getting the benefits of free trade without actually being party to the negotiations and to the agreements. And so what we’ve seen is Mexico in particular push back against Chinese imports, which have grown dramatically over the last five years into Mexico. Some of this are cars and car parts and the like, some are other electronics and the like. So we’ve seen them push back to really support North America. And as we get into the USMCA negotiations, China and this idea of transshipment, of shipping parts in through Mexico to the United States, is a big part of the conversation. And one can see, and I think all parties are open to, creating a real North America fortress vis-a-vis China, vis-a-vis other imports from around the world.

We’re in a world now where, as we’ve seen, interdependence can be weaponized. We used to think that that was something we did to other countries, but now we find out that other countries do it to us, too. So the idea that you need to maintain capacity in your own country or in reliable allies for strategically important stuff is now very, very real. I am really reluctant to be where I am right now, but I do think that conditional tariffs on Chinese cars are probably going to be necessary. I don’t think that the Europeans can allow their auto industry to be totally hollowed out.

Now, there’s some compromise here. Probably totally trying to shut Chinese cars out of the market is going to be a bad thing, be very costly to consumers. But on the other hand, I’ve been shocked not only by my own change of mind, but by some of my colleagues, people who are longtime advocates of globalization and free trade who are saying, okay, Europe needs to do some, really, if you like, it’s national security, it’s market disruption, to just allow something as big as the European auto industry to just be overrun, even if consumers would benefit for a while, it’s not 20 years ago anymore. We really do need to rethink, which is a long way from saying that we should have tariffs on everything or that the Europeans should have tariffs on everything. But a much more interventionist position has become really hard to avoid.

Westin: But for all the concern about trade deficits and jobs and putting sand in the gears of the North American auto industry, those most closely involved have one concern above all. I would say certainty has got to be the prize award that we’ve got to be chasing here.

Krugman I just think that is absolutely critical to have that. The great virtue of this whole world’s trade system that the United States basically set up after World War II was that it provided, it wasn’t just that their tariffs were low, though that’s important, but even more important, things were predictable. I would almost prefer that Trump put on more tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but committed to keep them in place, than have rolling negotiations where every year you don’t know what next year will be like.

Westin: If you were advising President Trump how to win the negotiation with Canada and Mexico, what would you advise him?

Krugman The USMCA is an easy case because this is not, there is no trade conflict here except in Trump’s mind. All of the things we’re talking about are not a problem for the USMCA. We shouldn’t be worried about being dependent on Canadian aluminum. They’ve got the hydropower, they’ve got the cheap electricity, they’re right next to us. They speak almost the same language. This is not an issue.

We are not really worried about the U.S. auto industry being hollowed out by Mexican auto production because Mexican auto production is part of an integrated system, which actually probably makes the U.S. more competitive. No, the USMCA, or maybe just rename it NAFTA and go back to the original purpose, which is this is a case where it really makes sense to have a true free trade area. In fact, if I could, I would say this is a case where we should go beyond free trade to a European Union style customs union with free movement of goods across borders, no checks at all, a common external frontier for goods.

We have a real problem with China. The problem with Mexico and Canada is just a figment of the president’s imagination.

How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi

How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi is a good piece in the Atlantic by Idrees Kahloon filled with colorful anecdotes of a nation in decline:

The health service now has to spend more money settling maternity-malpractice claims than it does on actually providing maternity care. Many Brits can neither obtain an appointment with a publicly funded dentist nor afford a private one; in a 2023 survey, one in 10 reported doing DIY dental work, in extreme cases extracting their own teeth or gluing broken crowns back together.

Incomes can be shockingly low: Junior doctors recently went on strike for the 15th time in three years over their salaries, which start at just £38,800; the median salary for British civil servants is £35,680. In April, amid the Iran conflict, the Daily Mail pounced on Prime Minister Keir Starmer for vacationing in Valencia, Spain, at what the tabloid described as a luxury hotel, costing £200 a night.

Americans are likely to come away a bit smug, especially as Independence Day approaches and Europeans are enjoying our giant stadiums and central air conditioning. Look deeper, however, and Britain’s story becomes more uncomfortable. Does this sound familiar?

Recent plans to transform the country have rested in no small part on High Speed 2, a superfast rail line intended to connect London with Birmingham, Leeds, and Manchester. But since HS2 was proposed, in 2009, its costs have tripled, to more than £100 billion. It is the most expensive rail line in the world. (A special structure to protect a rare bat species near the rail line in Buckinghamshire required 8,000 permits and was built at a cost of £216 million.) The most important sections of the proposed route have been lopped off. The rump line—going from Birmingham, Britain’s second-largest city, to not-quite-central London—may be finished by 2040…. HS2 has been delayed for so long that two swiftly built towers near the terminus now themselves look derelict and in need of demolition.

…Building infrastructure, or much of anything else, has become all but impossible in the United Kingdom. In addition to having the world’s most expensive (not yet built) train line, Britain also hosts the world’s most expensive (not yet built) nuclear-power plant, Hinkley Point C. Its environmental-impact assessment ran 31,401 pages; the plant will feature a £700 million “fish disco,” which will pulse sounds underwater to deter animals from its intake pipes.

Upon closer inspection, the United States looks a lot less like a shining city on a hill and a lot more like a declining Great Britain, appendaged with one or two dynamic sectors, most notably AI. The similarities are especially obvious in the retrograde solutions Britain has lumbered into, namely attacking immigrants and trade—Brexit being the equivalent of a high tariff regime. Nations in decline, like people, tend to lash out at others rather than deal with their real problems. Needless to say, neither immigrants nor trade explain Britain’s—or California’s—inability to build high-speed rail or other infrastructure.

It is discomforting to watch the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, individual rights, and free speech—the nation that once built the railways, the steam engines, the factories that remade the world—lose the capacity to build much of anything, or even to tolerate people speaking their minds. In parallel, instead of dealing with our real problems—almost all of our creation—the right gets literally hysterical over symbolic culture-war questions like birthright citizenship, while the left nominates candidates with Marxist-Leninist sympathies. The abundance and progress movements are some of the few shining lights. It’s not too late. But Great Britain is a warning.

The post How Britain Became as Poor as Mississippi appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Abyss

A woman walking past a girl at a soldier’s grave, adorned with flowers and Ukrainian flags in a cemetery setting.

The testimonies of Ukraine’s war widows reveal the mortal risk of love and the possibility of dying while alive: a black pain

- by Julie Reshe

Read on Aeon

How will AI and the fertility crisis interact?

That is from my latest Free Press column, here is one excerpt:

Each individual will be seen as something special by the other humans. Public spaces will be emptier, so anyone out in public will attract more notice. If you are waiting in line at the movie theater, you will be more likely to start talking to the person next to you. After all, you already have had the option of talking to the AIs all day long.

It has long been the norm in American small towns that you say hi to the people you pass on the sidewalk, or perhaps start chatting with customers in your store who appear to be outsiders. Those kinds of practices will spread to the large cities of today, which will become like smaller towns due to lower population density.

Many of these humans will invest heavily in their appearances, in their charisma, and in their “vibes.” After all, the AIs will, and already do, perform so many useful informational functions. If you, as a human, wish to draw attention to yourself and be seen as noteworthy, you will have to specialize in the remaining human functions. That may include “touching grass,” giving warm and appropriate hugs, looking good or at least looking interesting, and having some kind of unique identity that either is visible upon meeting or which AI smart glasses will communicate during social interactions. (“This guy has sailed around the world three times and punched a shark on the nose.”)

The YouTube celebrity Clavicular has attracted a lot of ridicule for his “looksmaxxing,” which involves a lot of manipulation of his appearance and some plastic surgery. Like it or not, that is a harbinger of how some aspects of this future will operate. Clavicular has achieved nothing of note, except for being immediately recognizable for how he looks. For similar reasons, people are likely to pay more attention to how they dress, what kind of makeup they wear, and other aspects of their appearance, such as how tall they are and how much they weigh. Plastic surgery and the successor drugs to GLP-1s are likely to command even more interest than today.

If a person comes across as extremely nondescript, you might feel there is no reason to speak with that person instead of chatting with your AI. A lot of ordinary social interactions will become more like a gala, where everyone shows up wanting to look a very particular way to draw attention.

To inhabitants of 2026, that might sound stupid, undesirable, and ridiculous. I do not love the thought myself. Yet people today care much more about how they look, and can do much more about it, than could people in medieval times. We are used to those differences, and few of us wish to go back to earlier times. People in this future may well feel the same way.

There are other interesting points at the link.

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The Birthplace of the United States

2013-06-01 00:00:00
June 1, 2013
2013-06-01 00:00:00

Editor’s note: In honor of America’s 250th birthday, Earth Observatory is revisiting stories about the landscapes that helped shape U.S. history. The images and text on this page were originally published on July 4, 2017. Explore the full collection here.

Situated between the Schuylkill and Delaware rivers, Philadelphia was founded in 1682 by William Penn as the seat of a Quaker colony. Later, its location just upstream of the Delaware Bay and Atlantic Ocean made it an industrial, commercial, and cultural hub of the American colonies.

When the area’s original inhabitants, the Lenni Lenape (Delaware) Indians, lived here, much of the land was forested. Swedish and Dutch settlers had already traveled in the area when Penn finally came to it and signed a treaty with the Lenape to establish a city. He called his colony—now the state of Pennsylvania—Sylvania, after its sylvan, wooded appearance. Current-day Philadelphia had “a high and dry land next to the water, with a shore ornamented with a fine view of pine trees growing upon it,” according to a historical account.

More than 300 years after Penn’s arrival, this landscape remains verdant, despite its urban development. The natural-color image above shows Philadelphia and the surrounding area as it appeared on June 1, 2013, when the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on the Landsat 8 satellite passed overhead.

Nearly a hundred years after Philadelphia was established, the Founding Fathers of the United States met in this thriving city roughly at the geographic center of the 13 colonies. It was here that they debated, composed, and signed the documents that would become the blueprints of the American government. In 1776, they signed the Declaration of Independence in Carpenter’s Hall, not far from the red-brick building that then housed Pennsylvania’s colonial government; in 1787, they signed the Constitution in the same place. (Carpenter’s is now known as Independence Hall.) Between 1781 and 1788, it was also the seat of the U.S. government.

Today, Philadelphia is the fifth largest city in the U.S., with more than 6 million people living in its metropolitan area. The city saw its heyday as a manufacturing hub in the 1800s. Currently, its largest sectors include education and health services.

Traces of the city’s history remain embedded in its landscape. A belt of large, tall buildings makes up Center City, the area around Independence Hall. To the south lies a dense grid of smaller houses—South Philadelphia, home to the city’s Italian Market. At one point, this was a satellite town to the city; the two merged in 1854, when the area’s population surged. It remains a diverse area today, home to a large African American community, as well as the remnants of once sizable Italian, Irish, and Jewish immigrant populations.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Jesse Allen, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Pola Lem.

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