SpaceX describes surgical intervention before launch of latest crew mission

A four-person crew rocketed into orbit Thursday from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, heading for a six-month expedition on the International Space Station.

Riding a Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft, the four crew members departed from Space Launch Complex-40 at Cape Canaveral at 11:10 am EDT (15:10 UTC) Thursday. Nine minutes later, they were in orbit to begin closing in on the space station for docking Thursday evening.

The launch was delayed from mid-September to replace a balky valve in the Dragon spacecraft's propulsion system, a task that involved cutting into a propellant line inside the ship to swap out a faulty component.

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NASA squeezed Treasury, vibe coded, and broke the mold in bid to save Swift

An attempt to save NASA's $500 million Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory from dropping out of orbit fell short, but the behind-the-scenes machinations required just to make a rescue possible deserve recognition, government and commercial space officials said in a recounting of the mission.

The rescue mission was developed by Katalyst Space Technologies, working under a $30 million contract awarded by NASA last September. NASA gave Katalyst nine months to build and launch a satellite to capture Swift flying some 200 miles above the Earth and boost it into a higher orbit.

Katalyst's rescue spacecraft, known as Link, successfully launched July 3 and completed some of its initial checkouts before a malfunction caused it to spin out of control a few weeks later. NASA announced in August that Link would not be able to reach Swift as intended, and the rescue mission was aborted.

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Stop Trying to Make Rahm Emanuel Happen

Rahm Emanuel in his natural environment

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To a certain kind of political reporter, Rahm Emanuel is a compelling figure, a politician of deep wisdom and experience, just the kind of person who ought to be given serious consideration as a candidate for president. And if the voters themselves aren’t all that interested? Well that can change, with a sufficient volume of lengthy profiles and interviews.

And so a campaign has begun to make Rahm happen, engineered by the man himself but with the active assistance of a good portion of the elite news media. The good news is that Rahm is not going to happen, because he represents everything that Democratic voters are eager to reject at this moment.

Rahm is everywhere, whether you asked for him or not

Here’s Rahm being interviewed by CNBC. Here’s Rahm being interviewed by Fox News. Here’s Rahm being interviewed by CBS News. Here’s Rahm being interviewed by Politico. Here’s a big profile of Rahm in the New York Times, which says “he has emerged as a behind-the-scenes force in his party’s push to flip the House this fall.” And going back a few months, here’s Politico saying “His pugilism and his critique of the party’s leftward lurch will create a gauntlet his would-be rivals will have to navigate.” Everyone will have to deal with Rahm, so powerful a presence is he!

Readers under 30 or so might not have a deep familiarity with Emanuel, so the short version is this: He’s had a long list of jobs (campaign operative, fundraiser, White House staffer, congressman, White House chief of staff, mayor of Chicago, Wall Street rainmaker, ambassador to Japan), in which he earned a reputation as, to put it plainly, an asshole. Reporters profiling him will describe incidents of him shouting and swearing at people, or mention that sometimes he has been referred to as “Rahmbo,” but what it comes down to is that he’s an asshole.

That isn’t necessarily disqualifying, even if it should be; lots of politicians are abusive to people around them, as are bosses in a million workplaces. But unlike some of them, Emanuel isn’t a silver-tongued charmer whose charisma will hypnotize voters on the campaign trail.

What is disqualifying, however, is that Rahm’s inclinations run toward caution and centrism, and that is the opposite of what Democratic voters want at this moment. It’s not just about ideology, it’s about a style of politics those voters are absolutely fed up with, one driven by the belief that the way to succeed is to constantly look over your right shoulder, not do anything that might make Republicans too angry, and not just spend your time chasing independent voters but do so by trimming back your ambitions until they’re a shapeless lump of timidity and compromise.

To me, the emblematic Rahm Emanuel moment came in early 2010, when Democrats were struggling to pass the Affordable Care Act. For a brief time they had a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the Senate (though some of those were very conservative Democrats), and as they approached the finish line, needing only to get the two chambers to agree on a single bill, Ted Kennedy died and a Republican, Scott Brown, won a surprise victory to replace him. At that point, Emanuel counseled retreat: throw the big bill in the trash, then try to pass a bill to expand coverage for low-income kids, something far less ambitious but likelier to get bipartisan support. In addition to misreading what Republicans would accept (absolutely nothing, then as now) it amounted to abject surrender. As Molly Ball reported in Time magazine, Nancy Pelosi wasn’t having it:

Pelosi told the White House to rein in Emanuel and get him to stop pestering her members about his “eensy weensy bill.” At a meeting in the Oval Office, Pelosi confronted the subject directly. “Mr. President, I know there are some on your staff who want to take the namby-pamby approach,” she said. “That’s unacceptable.” Obama took her side. They were going to go for it.

She was right, and the ACA passed. If Emanuel had had his way, it wouldn’t have happened.

The problem is not that he believes in nothing, it’s what he does believe in

One might look at where Emanuel is now and say he’s changed, at least a little. In July he went to Israel and gave a speech excoriating Benjamin Netanyahu, and now says the Israeli government should no longer get support from the U.S. taxpayer (though he says they should be free to buy American weapons with their own money if they want, just like other countries). He’s still advocating small-bore policy changes, but ones that are updated for the present moment, like a ban on lawmakers betting on prediction markets and a mandatory retirement age of 75 across the federal government.

I’m sure there will be more to come, as Emanuel tries to present himself as a man for this moment. But while he may evolve a little bit here or there, he’s still the same guy he always was, and that’s the problem. He’s the avatar of a certain kind of Democratic centrist politics, one that yearns to win the votes of Republicans but views progressives with little but contempt. Like many others, he believes that the way to win votes across the center is to engage in some vigorous hippie-punching (Rahm is eager to talk about how awful the DSA is), then present some ideologically denuded, tiny policy ideas under the guise of “pragmatism.”

If he really believed in those policy ideas, that would be one thing. But it’s never been clear that Rahm believes in much of anything. He wants power, but he has never seemed animated by doing much with power; he has never presented a vision of how he’d like government and society to work that goes much beyond “What we have now, but a little better.”

Back in 2020, Democrats had no greater goal than getting rid of Donald Trump, which is the biggest reason Joe Biden got their nomination; he was widely seen as the safest and most electable choice. But this is a very different moment. Yes, they’re desperate to win, and still will be in 2028. But even more, they’ll be drawn to candidates who can sell them on a vision of something deeper, more fundamental, and more lasting.

That’s not who Rahm is, and to his credit (I guess) he’s not trying to pretend it is. Which is why I’m fairly sure that as the primary process goes on, we’re likely to see him coming in 10th or so in all the polls, even as he gets inordinate attention in the news media.

There have been times when his brand of corporate-approved, right-leaning centrism was attractive to voters; in many ways that what his old boss Bill Clinton offered in 1992. But this is not 1992, and Rahm Emanuel is no Bill Clinton. Fortunately.

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Thursday 1 October 1663

Up and betimes to my office, and then to sit, where Sir G. Carteret, Sir W. Batten, Sir W. Pen, Sir J. Minnes, Mr. Coventry and myself, a fuller board than by the King’s progresse and the late pays and my absence has been a great while.

Sat late, and then home to dinner. After dinner I by water to Deptford about a little business, and so back again, buying a couple of good eeles by the way, and after writing by the post, home to see the painter at work, late, in my wife’s closet, and so to supper and to bed, having been very merry with the painter, late, while he was doing his work.

This day the King and Court returned from their progress.

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Falcon Heavy to fly its first mission for U.S. spy satellite agency

Falcon Heavy stands ready for the launch at pad 39A ahead of the NROL-97 mission. Image: SpaceX.

Update Oct. 1, 10:28 p.m. EDT (0228 UTC): SpaceX adjusted the T-0 liftoff time.

A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket is scheduled to launch from Florida Thursday night on a classified mission for the National Reconnaissance Office, America’s spy satellite agency.

Codenamed NROL-97, the mission is scheduled to blast off from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center at 11:54 p.m. EDT (0354 UTC). Based on hazard warnings issued to aircraft and sea vessels it is expected to take a north-easterly trajectory on departure from Florida’s Space Coast.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about two hours prior to liftoff.

The NRO has previously flown payloads on 22 Falcon 9 rockets but this is the first time it has used the heavy-lift Falcon Heavy, which consists of three Falcon 9 boosters and an upper stage, topped by a payload fairing.

The powerful rocket, which lifts off under the power of 27 Merlin 1D engines, was introduced to great fanfare in 2018 and will be making its 14th flight.

Like most NRO missions, little is publicly known about the nature the flight. It is the first NRO mission to fly after being procured in 2025 through the competitive National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 2 contract.

The Falcon Heavy core stage, serial number B1106, is brand new and will be expended on this mission. The rocket’s side boosters both flew just a month ago to launch NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. B1104 is making its second flight and B1072 is on its fourth mission.

The side boosters will return to Landing Zones 1 and 2 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. SpaceX returned LZ-1 to service for this mission after it was replaced by LZ-40 at Space Launch Complex 40. However, that landing pad was used today by the booster returning from launching the Crew 13 mission.

The NRO said the payload fairing was previously used on the NROL-95 mission in July.

NROL-97 will be SpaceX’s third Falcon launch of the day. In addition to the Crew 13 mission, the company launched 130 payloads on the Transporter 13 rideshare mission from its West Coast pad at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. It will be the first time the company has landed four boosters in a single day.

Links 10/1/26

Links for you. Science:

Covid-19 wastewater levels ain’t what they used to be. What does that mean?
A Kelvin Wave Is Heading Toward the California Coast, Bringing Trouble
BASE Search Index (a good way to get access to scientific papers)
AI Presents Science with a ‘Ship of Theseus’ Problem
Florida counties declare emergency over ‘wildly unusual’ dengue outbreak. Mosquito-borne disease has infected hundreds statewide and killed one woman in Tampa.
‘Zombified’ C.D.C., Hobbled by Cuts, Struggles to Fulfill Scientific Mission. The agency has lost its independence and nearly a third of its staff, as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and associates have tightened control.
Pennsylvania reports 5th measles-related death in the state

Other:

Why has abortion faded from America’s national conversation?
Democrats Are About To Learn The Wrong Lesson From Trump’s Failure. He was done in by malice, incompetence, corruption, and pathological vanity, not by his willingness to act before he could be stopped.
The Student Journalists Who Never Let the Cornell Assault Case Go
One More Reason Americans Hate AI: It Does Nothing for Them
What It Feels Like at Cornell Right Now
Rahm Emanuel’s Losing Record
The Nexus Project Appreciates NYC’s First-Ever Municipal Strategy to Combat Antisemitism, Encourages Its Implementation
How Meta Uses A.I. Data Centers to Avoid Billions in Federal Taxes
Copilot stabs captain on flight to Israel before passengers storm cockpit and stabilize jetliner
Eric Schmitt’s Very Bad Day at Work
Mayor and Nas sit down to discuss the past, present and future of hip hop in NYC
A College Rape Case Has Ignited the Country. Let’s Talk About What We’re Actually Talking About Here.
Someone ‘Torturing’ LLMs in a Robot Prison Has Triggered the Dumbest Debate in AI Yet
The Facebook Fake-out
Trump’s child-care plan could punish single parents
MAGA influencers slam GOP governor for not being racist enough
D.C. region rents would be higher today without pandemic, data shows
The Internet Has a Basement, And Nobody’s Given You The Key.
Only People Who Have Never Had A Real Job
OpenAI Ignored Employees Who Warned It Wasn’t Doing Enough About Security
A month out, Iowa poised for a political turn
Trump’s ‘Greater North America’ Is Fascist Geopolitics
Right-Wing Groups Are Making Money Off John Fetterman. After losing his Democratic fundraisers, the Pennsylvania senator found a new firm with MAGA-world ties.
RFK Jr. thinks AI will free us from the “tyranny” of medical facts, expertise. AI is far from a perfect resource. But it seems to hallucinate less than Kennedy.
Ken Paxton’s office struck plea deals in three other sex abuse cases beyond one facing scrutiny
Kennedy Center ‘in free fall’ as Trump allies max out credit cards and opera funds
E-bikes are giving teenagers something we thought they’d lost
How Cities Are Forced to Funnel License Plate Data to a Massive Federal Surveillance Program
Trump’s White House Agrees His ‘Midterm Ads’ Are Illegal. They’re Doing It Anyway
USPS To Put Cameras in Trucks That Scan Roads for ‘Community Safety’

Regardless of What You Think About Hasan Piker, He’s a Nothingburger of a Political Issue

At least Republicans think so (boldface mine):

Yes, that Hasan Piker, the hard-left Twitch streamer who has infuriated Democratic elites with his efforts to push the party leftward and to a more pro-Palestinian position. The anti-Piker strategy may have started with Dems and their think tanks but boy, did it end up being a uniquely hysterical and sometimes horny obsession in Republican circles and right-wing media.…

The Trump White House, including leading policy architect Stephen Miller, rants and raves about Piker, dubbing him “the new consultant and strategist for the Democrat[ic] Party,” in what Trump officials have told me is a deliberate attempt to tie Dem candidates to Piker’s “extremism,” in the hope it will drag down liberal candidates during the midterms…

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has plowed considerable resources and money into trying to turn Piker into the face of the Democratic opposition, smugly declaring in a joke letter to the Federal Election Commission that Piker’s “direct campaign activities” are “in-kind contributions to the Republican Party.” And the Trump-backed Mike Rogers – who is running against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan in one of the most pivotal Senate races in an absurdly high-stakes election cycle – has made Piker’s connection to El-Sayed a major part of his campaign; there’s a recent, Rogers-approved TV ad that almost makes it seem like Rogers thinks he’s running against Piker…

“It was such a retarded thing to do,” one longtime Trump adviser told me recently. I quibble with a) the past-tense framing because the party is still doing it, and b) the use of the slur. Having said that, I’m printing it because not only is it the Trump administration’s favorite word, apparently, but because not one but two (or three? I’m honestly losing count) Trump advisers or GOP operatives very close to the White House independently used the R-word to describe the party-wide decision to invest resources in elevating Piker…

“No one knows who this asshole is,” one Republican operative close to Trump says, adding: “We aren’t breaking through to voters with this guy, unless you count people who are voting Republican anyways.”

…McLaughlin also sent me a link to one of his most recent polls that shows the “battle for Congress remains close, but our latest national survey contains a clear warning for Republicans: Democrats continue to lead on the generic congressional ballot, while the Republican advantage on the capitalism-versus-socialism question has narrowed sharply.”

As a matter of psychology, I’m managing my expectations for the 2026 elections downward, but the analytical part of my brain keeps telling me there’s new evidence every day that the midterms are going to be really bad for Republicans.

Also, now can we stop talking about Piker?

Fresh crew takes off for six-month stay aboard space station

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to begin NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 on Oct. 1, 2026. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket took off on a flight to the International Space Station Thursday carrying two NASA astronauts, a cosmonaut and a Canadian whose wife plans a launch of her own later this year, giving birth to the couple’s third child while her husband is away in space.

Strapped into a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, Crew 13 commander Jessica Watkins, pilot Luke Delaney, Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov and Canadian astronaut Joshua Kutryk blasted off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 11:10 a.m. EDT.

The launch originally was planned for mid September, but the flight was delayed to replace a leaking valve in the Crew Dragon’s propulsion system.

Watkins, who holds a Ph.D. in geology, flew to space aboard a Crew Dragon in 2022. Her crewmates are space rookies, the 296th, 297th and 298th astronauts to fly aboard the ISS. Delaney and Kutryk are both former military test pilots while Teteryatnikov served in the Russian submarine force before becoming a cosmonaut.

The four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission exit the Neil A. Armstrong Operations and Checkouts Building the Kennedy Space Center to bid farewell to their friends and families. Left to right: Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Joshua Kutryk, NASA astronaut Luke Delaney, NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Kutryk and his wife Heather have two children, ages 5 and 7. They’re expecting their third child around Thanksgiving, about two months into the Crew 13 mission. In so doing, they will become the fourth couple in space history to have a child born while one parent was off the planet.

“Leaving these three (plus one on the way) is the hardest thing I’ve ever done,” Kutryk wrote in a post on the social media platform X. “But that has always been the nature of exploration.” He then quoted Norwegian arctic explorer Fridtjof Nansen, describing his thoughts upon setting off for the North Pole.

“‘Behind me lay all I held dear in life. And what lay before me? Happy child, little do you know what life is — how strangely mingled and how full of change… and now, a farewell to home. It was the darkest hour of the whole journey.'”

Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Joshua Kutryk (in vehicle) is photographed by another CSA astronaut alongside his wife, Heather, and their two children. The couple are expecting their third child to be born while Kutryk is on orbit. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Despite President Trump’s recent animosity toward Canada, the Canadian Space Agency continues to play a major role in the U.S. space program. Along with supplying the robot arms that helped build the space station, CSA astronaut Jeremy Hansen flew around the moon on NASA’s Artemis II mission. Kutryk is the 17th Canadian to fly in space.

“When I think about the space station, I hope the legacy is that people see this beacon in the sky going around Earth, one of the most complex things humans have ever, ever created, and they see it for all of its technical marvel and all the science and discoveries we’re making there,” he said.

“But (I hope) they also see it as sort of this beacon for what we can do when we make good decisions, when we work together and we collaborate and we prioritize things. It’s testament to what we’ve done, what we can do, and really to what we hope the generations that follow can do.”

After boosting the Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon capsule out of the dense lower atmosphere, the Falcon 9’s first stage flew itself back to a pinpoint landing at the Space Force station while the rocket’s upper stage continued the climb to space. Minutes later, the second stage engine shut down and the crew capsule separated to fly on its own.

“What an epic ride!” Delaney radioed. “What an epic ride it was! Today, we proudly continue the streak of humans living and working in orbit, building on the legacies of yesterday to pave the way for future of space exploration … Deepest appreciation to my family and friends who stood by me throughout this entire endeavor. Thank you. I love you guys. And to the Marines back on Earth, Semper Fi.”

Like all flights to the International Space Station, piloted and unpiloted alike, the Crew 13 launch was timed for the moment Earth’s rotation carried the pad into the plane of the station’s orbit. That’s a requirement for rendezvous missions because no current rockets have the power to overcome their orbital momentum and change their direction of travel when moving at nearly 5 miles per second.

A composite image showing the launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 and the landing burn performed by first stage booster, tail number B1101, shortly before touching down at Landing Zone 40. Image: Michale Cain/Spaceflight Now

While a Falcon 9 cannot change orbital planes, the Crew Dragon capsule can change its altitude as required, flying lower — and faster — to catch up with its quarry and higher to slow down the approach.

In this case, it will take Crew 13 capsule just eight hours — a NASA record — to catch up with the ISS, moving in for an automated docking at the forward port of the station’s Harmony module at 7 p.m.

“I personally am looking forward to returning to the ISS as well as flying on Dragon a second time, and really looking forward to experiencing those experiences through the eyes of my crewmates,” Watkins said.

“We expect a very busy mission with lots of station maintenance, both internal and external, with a few EVAs (spacewalks) on the docket as well as visiting vehicle capture and stowage operations, lots of science … and plenty of outreach.”

Standing by to welcome Watkins and company aboard will be the crew they are replacing: Crew 12 commander Jessica Meir, pilot Jack Hathaway, European Space Agency astronaut Sophie Adenot and cosmonaut Andrey Fedyaev. They’re wrapping up a 235-day mission that began with launch atop a Falcon 9 rocket on Feb. 13.

Also on board: Soyuz MS-29/75S cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov, Anna Kikina and NASA astronaut Anil Menon, launched on a Soyuz 2.1a rocket from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on July 14. They’re in the midst of an eight-month stay, returning to Earth in early April 2027.

After an expedited “crew handover,” during which Meir and her crewmates will show their replacements the ins and outs of station operations, Crew 12 will board their own Crew Dragon capsule and return to Earth. Undocking is planned for Oct. 5 with splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off the southern California coast on Oct. 6.

“I think the thing that I’m looking forward to most is seeing my three-and-a-half-year-old daughter,” said Meir, a two-flight veteran with seven spacewalks to her credit. “I’m so looking forward to seeing nature again, feeling the breeze on my face, the wind rustling through the leaves, experiencing all those things that we don’t have up here.

“But I will very, very much miss being weightless all the time and the incredible views that we have.”

Said Hathaway: “Going home and being able to take a nice long hot shower will be very relaxing and very nice. And, of course, I’m looking forward to seeing my family. But a hot shower is near the top of my list.”

Crew 12’s departure will free up the Harmony module’s space-facing port for the arrival of a SpaceX Cargo Dragon on Oct. 13 that will be loaded with crew supplies, science gear, spare parts and two roll-out solar array panels. The Crew 13 fliers also expect to welcome a Northrop Grumman cargo ship in December, along with two Russian Progress freighters in November and February.

The roll-out solar arrays going up on the next Dragon Cargo ship are the final sets in a major upgrade to the station’s original solar power system that began with initial installations in June 2021. The final two sets will be installed during spacewalks late this month and early November.

But the major goal of the flight, like all NASA missions to the station, is conducting research in the microgravity environment of space. Scores of experiments and technology demonstrations are running at any given moment with fresh studies going up on virtually every flight.

The Crew 13 fliers will face the same challenges.

“During the mission, the crew will help us fight heart disease and Parkinson’s disease by studying human stem cell-derived tissues that will help improve medicine, disease modeling, and pharmaceutical testing,” said Dana Weigel, director of NASA’s low-Earth orbit mission directorate.

“They will also explore crop production that’s important for longer-duration spaceflight missions, and they’ll help us better understand blood flow abnormalities that we see in space, along with testing new diagnostic medical equipment for monitoring crew health. That’s just a couple of the highlights of the research the crew will be doing on board.”

All in all, Hathaway said, the crew is looking forward to an action-packed stay in space.

“For me, between the science, the spacewalks and everything else that the expedition is going to have, it’s looking to be a great time,” Delaney said. “Excited to launch with this crew, join the expedition, and integrate as an extension of NASA and all the ISS team members. So exciting times ahead!”

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Understanding the AI That Drives Robots

It’s been over a year since I last looked at the state of humanoid robots, and enthusiasm for the technology shows no sign of waning. Startups NEURA Robotics and Figure AI raised $1.4 billion and $1 billion, respectively, and Apptronik raised $520 million. China’s Unitree went public, raising roughly $900 million, and Agility Robotics plans to go public via SPAC later this year. A few weeks ago China held the second annual World Humanoid Robot Games, showing humanoid robots performing all manner of impressive physical feats.

Figure’s humanoid robot sorting packages, via Wikipedia.

We’ve also seen some impressive-looking robotics demos over the last year, though these must be evaluated with a large grain of salt. Figure showed off its robots sorting packages for hours at a time and autonomously unloading a dishwasher. Physical Intelligence showed off its robot model making coffee and folding boxes in a chocolate factory. Generalist AI showed off its GEN-1.5 model learning new tasks from just a few examples.

Some progress in robots is a function of hardware advances: better actuators, and so on. But the lion’s share of it is due to advances in robot AI, using specially developed AI models to control a robot. As more general AI continues to rapidly advance in capabilities, one obvious question is whether we’re going to see the same sort of acceleration in robotic AI. Right now robotic AI capabilities still seem very limited, but given how fast more general AI improved, I can imagine this changing very quickly. Because of this, it’s worth understanding how the AI models being developed to control robots work.

There are a few different sorts of robotic AIs, which are sometimes referred to as “policies” (where a “policy” is something that maps a particular set of inputs — robot state, sensor data, instructions it’s been given — to a set of robot actions). For this essay, we’ll look at one commonly used architecture, employed by companies such as Figure, Unitree, Physical Intelligence, and Nvidia: the vision-language-action model (VLA). More specifically, we’ll look at one popular VLA, Physical Intelligence’s open-weight π0.5 VLA, which was released in 2025 and has become widely used (though it’s not Physical Intelligence’s most advanced model).

While a large language model takes text as an input and gives text as an output, a VLA takes text, images, and robot information as an input and gives a series of robot actions as an output. It does this using many of the same components that made LLMs so successful, specifically attention and the transformer architecture. It’s not amazingly obvious if VLA’s will remain the primary robotic AI paradigm, but as of now they’re a very common method for controlling robots.

Linear algebra basics

To learn how AI works (be it a VLA or anything else), it’s useful to know a very small amount of linear algebra. Specifically, we want to understand a few different operations for manipulating arrays of numbers, since this is most of what AI models do.

For instance, say we have the following two-dimensional arrays (or matrices) of numbers:

One thing we can do to these arrays is add them together. This works exactly like how you’d expect: each number in one array is added to the corresponding number in the other array, giving you a new array with all the resulting additions.

Another thing we can do is multiply or divide an array by a single value. This also works more or less like you’d expect: each value in the array gets multiplied or divided by the respective value.

But what if we want to multiply two matrices together? To do this, we need an operation called the dot product. The dot product takes two one-dimensional arrays of numbers (also known as vectors), multiplies each value in one vector by the corresponding value in the other vector, then sums the result.

You can think of the dot product as measuring two things: how large two vectors are, and how similar they are to each other. (If you normalize the vectors, scaling the values so everything is between 0 and 1, then the dot product is entirely a measure of how similar two vectors are to each other.)

When we multiply two matrices together, we’re simply doing a bunch of dot products: each value in the resulting matrix is the dot product of the row of one array and the column of another. Because the dot product requires two lists of equal length, multiplication of matrices must be done in a certain way: the number of columns of one matrix must be equal to the number of rows of the other matrix. And the size of the output matrix will be a function of the sizes of the input matrices.

I find it easiest to understand matrix multiplication by putting one matrix on the left and the other matrix on the upper right. The output matrix fits in the space between them, each value the dot product of the first matrix’s rows and the second’s columns:

Neural network basics

Most modern AI models, as we know, are built using neural networks. The classic image of a neural network is something like this:

You have some series of input neurons that represent your input data, which are connected to various intermediate layers of neurons, which then get connected to output neurons. Depending on what data is fed into them and how the connections between different neurons have been set, neurons will “activate” to various degrees, taking some input from the neurons in the previous layer and sending some output along to the neurons in the next layer. This structure is sometimes called a “multilayer perceptron,” or MLP.

However, I think it’s much easier to understand neural networks by looking at how they’re actually implemented, which is done by multiplying arrays of numbers (in machine learning, these arrays are sometimes called “tensors,” where a tensor is just an array of numbers that can be any dimension. Google, for instance, has a machine-learning library called “TensorFlow”). The neural network above, for instance, would actually be implemented via something like this:

The three input neurons become a one-dimensional array, or vector, with three numbers in it, which is our input data. This vector then gets passed to the hidden layer, where it goes through several steps. First, it gets multiplied by a two-dimensional matrix (W1 in the figure). This matrix has four rows (corresponding to the four neurons in the original diagram) and three columns (one for each value in the input vector): it takes a vector three numbers long (or 3-vector) as an input and spits out one four numbers long as an output. The resulting vector of four numbers is then added to another 4-vector (b1 in the figure), the values of which are known as “biases.” The weights and biases of the various layers are known as the “parameters” of the network and are what get modified when the neural network is being trained.

Once the biases have been added, the resulting vector (known as a “pre-activation,” z in the figure) then goes through what’s called a nonlinearity, which is just a function that does different transformations to an input depending on what that input is. A common nonlinearity, which the example above uses, is “ReLU,” for rectified linear unit. All ReLU does is replace any negative numbers in the vector it’s given with zeroes. Other nonlinearities are the sigmoid (an S-shaped function that squeezes values to be between 0 and 1) and GELU (a somewhat ReLU-like function that’s smooth instead of sharply kinked).

In a basic MLP like this one, each hidden layer in a neural network will consist of this matrix multiplication, then bias, then nonlinearity. The network above has just one hidden layer, so after the nonlinearity the resulting vector is then passed to the output neurons. These transform the data again using another matrix multiplication (W2) and bias addition (b2), yielding a vector of two numbers as the output (y).

This structure is simple but powerful. To see why, imagine a neural network that takes a single value as an input and gives a single value as an output but has many neurons in its hidden layer (the number of neurons is known as the “width” of the layer). Before the nonlinearity, each individual neuron calculates wx + b, which is the formula for a straight line; the weights determine the slope of the line, while the biases determine its vertical location. The nonlinearity, in turn, lets the layer draw different line segments, with different slopes and intercepts, at different points on the graph. Together, this allows a sufficiently wide neural network to, in principle, approximate any continuous function by drawing a large number of different line segments1: the more hidden-layer neurons we add, the more line segments we can draw, and the closer we can approximate the function. In higher dimensions — larger numbers of inputs and outputs — the geometry gets more complicated, but the basic idea remains the same.

Training a neural network

Other than their ability to approximate very complex functions, the other key property of neural networks is that they can be trained, by comparing the actual output of a network to the output you’d like it to have, and nudging the weights and biases in response to make the output more accurate.

Training a network starts with a forward pass, giving it an example input and then calculating an output. This calculated output is then compared to the actual, correct output using some loss function, which measures the difference between the two. For a simple case where the output is a single number, the loss function might be mean squared error, which you can calculate by squaring the difference between the actual output and the expected output: the bigger the difference, the larger the loss. If you’re trying to predict the next symbol of a sequence, however, a common loss function is cross entropy, which is based on how likely the model thought the actual next symbol was; the less likely the model thought the correct symbol was, the higher the cross entropy. As a model gets trained and does a better and better job at approximating the correct output, the loss will (hopefully) trend downward, and reports on AI training runs will often show training loss curves.

Once the loss has been determined, the next step is to go back through the network, layer by layer, and, using the chain rule, calculate how much the loss would change if you made small adjustments to each weight and bias. This is known as backpropagation and produces a long list of numbers, each number telling you how much the loss would change when you adjust the value of one parameter in the model. This list, called the gradient, can be thought of as the direction you’d need to “step” in a high-dimensional space to maximally increase the loss for the current values of the model’s parameters.

The gradient in hand, the next step is to take a small step in the opposite direction (since we want to decrease the loss, not increase it). This is done by multiplying each value in the gradient by a small positive number (known as the learning rate), and then subtracting the resulting number from each parameter. With the parameters changed, you can then run another input through the model, calculate the new loss, and modify the parameters again. This process of repeatedly calculating the gradient, then using it to modify the parameters of the model to (hopefully) reduce the loss is known as gradient descent.

In practice, most models are trained using modified, more complex versions of gradient descent that do things like use the average of recent gradients to update the parameters and use different learning rates at different points in the training process. It’s also uncommon in practice to update the model after every individual training example. Models are instead trained in batches (sometimes called “minibatches”): dozens, hundreds, or even more training examples are run through the model, their losses are averaged, and the gradient is calculated based on the average loss. Settings that determine how a model is trained, such as learning rate or batch size, are known as “hyperparameters,” and figuring out the best hyperparameters to train a model with is an important area of machine learning.

Inputs to a neural network

For an AI to do useful work, we’d like to be able to feed it things like images and text data. How do we convert images, text, and other data into a form that a model can understand and operate on?

For text, there are two main steps. First, a string of text is broken up into chunks, or “tokens.” Then, each token is converted into a long vector of numbers, called an “embedding,” which can then be processed by the network. Let’s take each step in turn.

Tokenizing is a way to break a string of text into a series of chunks, which is useful because it allows the model to learn something about the meaning of individual chunks of text. One option would be to break apart text using a predefined list of words, but a fixed list of whole words would prevent us from processing words or character combinations that haven’t been seen before. So instead it’s more common to use token libraries, which contain both individual characters and clusters of characters (including whole words as well as portions of words) that have been found to occur frequently in actual bodies of text. The token vocabulary for GPT-3, for instance, has around 50,000 items in it. You can browse the GPT token vocabulary here and see that it contains individual characters, chunks of words, and entire words (often with punctuation or spaces included).

Once a text is broken up into individual tokens, each token then gets converted into an embedding, a long vector of numbers. The embedding vector for GPT-3, for instance, is 12,288 numbers long. You can think of this embedding vector as representing coordinates in some very high-dimensional space. The conversion is done using an embedding matrix, which is effectively a huge matrix where each row is the embedding for one particular token. The image below shows an example of converting the string “the cat sat on the mat” to a series of embedding vectors using a (highly simplified) token vocabulary and embedding table.

One key fact about the embedding matrix is that the values in it — the numbers in each embedding vector — are model parameters that are learned, just like the weights and biases in a multilayer perceptron. As a model is trained, the embedding vectors will get updated via whatever flavor of gradient descent is being used, and tokens that the model learns are similar or even substitutable might end up closer to each other in “embedding space.”

With images, we can use a similar process, but it must be modified somewhat. In something like a vision transformer (an AI model used for things like image classification), an image is first broken into a series of smaller chunks (say, a square of 16 × 16 pixels) called patches, the image equivalents of tokens. However, unlike with tokens, it’s not feasible to have a unique embedding vector for every possible image patch, because the number of possible patches is too large. Even if an image was limited to just black and white pixels, the number of unique 16 × 16 patches is 2^256, which is not all that much less than the estimated number of atoms in the universe. This is far too many items to list in a table.

Instead, patches are converted to embedding vectors using a learned embedding function. A patch is first converted to a very long vector containing the numerical color values of each pixel. This vector is then converted to an embedding vector using some learned embedding function (such as multiplying by a learned matrix), the parameters of which are updated via training.

For both text and images, this process produces a matrix, where each row is an embedding vector for one particular token or patch. Because the embedding vector on its own doesn’t give any information on where a token occurs in a particular bit of text, the list of embedding vectors is often modified by adding a position-encoding vector to each embedding vector.

Attention and the transformer

Sticking with text for a moment, we have our tokenizer and embedding matrix, which convert words into long vectors of numbers. We add position information to those vectors, and then feed them into a neural network, modifying them in various ways and eventually producing some output.

One weakness of this arrangement is that while the network can learn about the general similarities of various chunks of text by way of the embedding table, embedding vectors don’t include any information about what a token means in a particular string of text. The vectors for the tokens “red” and “crimson” will reflect what the model has learned about how these are used generally, and since they describe similar colors they might end up with similar embedding vectors near each other in embedding space. But this won’t give any information about what they mean in a sentence like “the harvard crimson staff were seeing red on sunday when the president shut down their office.” If we want to accurately predict the next token in a sequence of them, it would be useful if we could modify the embedding vectors to include information about the surrounding context.

One way of doing this that has proved to be very successful is called “attention.” Attention is basically a way to modify an embedding vector with information about its surrounding context. This is done by turning the embedding vector for a token into three other vectors: a query vector, a key vector, and a value vector. Each one is created by multiplying the embedding vector by some matrix. As with the embedding table, these matrices are learned: the values in them will be modified via the training process. In GPT-3, the query, key, and value vectors are each 128 numbers long.

The query vector can be thought of as representing something like “what other tokens are important for interpreting me?” The key vector can be thought of as representing something like “what sort of thing am I useful for?” And the value vector can be thought of as representing “what sort of information will I provide?” The resulting vectors are combined together in a query matrix Q, a key matrix K, and a value matrix V, each row the vector for some particular token.

To calculate attention, the query matrix Q is multiplied by the transposed key matrix K (where “transposed” means “rows turned into columns and vice versa”). This gives a new matrix, QKᵀ, whose values indicate how important each token is for understanding every other token. There are then a few mechanical steps done to this matrix. First, we divide each value in the QKᵀ matrix by the square root of the length of the key vector, to prevent the values from getting too large. When predicting the next token in a sequence, we don’t want earlier tokens to be able to “see” later ones. We correct this by what’s called “causal masking” — essentially setting the values for later tokens on earlier ones to negative infinity. We also scale the values in each row so that they’re between 0 and 1 and sum to 1, using a function called “softmax.” (If you had the vector [10 6 4], softmax would convert it to [0.5 0.3 0.2]). You can think of this as creating a matrix that tells us how much information each token should take from other tokens.

The scaled, masked QKᵀ matrix is then multiplied by the value matrix V. The output of this multiplication is a list of embedding vectors, where each vector has been modified to have information about the token’s surrounding context.

In practice, it’s common to run this attention mechanism multiple times simultaneously (this is called “multiple attention heads”). GPT-3, for instance, has 96 attention heads. Each attention head learns different matrices for calculating Q, K, and V, and might learn different things to look for in the surrounding context: you can imagine one attention head “looking” for related nouns, one looking for previous mentions of a word, and so on. (These are just conceptual examples; in practice the things an attention head learns to “attend to” don’t necessarily map cleanly to concepts like this.) The output of each attention head will get stitched together into one matrix, which then gets multiplied by another learned matrix, which mixes the information from different heads together. The resulting matrix can then get processed by the rest of the neural network.

Probably the most common way to use attention is via what’s called the transformer architecture. A GPT-style transformer consists of multiple “transformer blocks,” each one of which contains an attention step followed by a multilayer perceptron. GPT-3, for instance, contains 96 transformer blocks. In the first transformer block, the model is fed the embedding vectors for the tokens, which are then processed by the 96 attention heads, producing an output matrix whose rows are modified and processed embedding vectors. Each row of the matrix then goes through an MLP with a single hidden layer of neurons: while the attention mechanism mixes information between tokens, the MLP processes each embedding vector it receives separately, modifying them further. The output then gets fed into another transformer block, which does the same thing: running the attention mechanism over the output from the previous block (using totally new learned matrices for calculating Q, K, and V), then sending it to an MLP. This is done again and again, through all the transformer blocks, until at the end the vector for the last token is converted into a list of scores, one for each possible token, representing the model’s guess at how likely each token is next in the sequence.

Vision, language, action

A transformer architecture can also be used to process images. The Vision Transformer (ViT) base model described in a 2020 paper by a team from Google uses 12 transformer blocks, each one with 12 attention heads. One difference with the vision transformer is that there’s no causal masking: every token can “see” every other token when processed by the attention mechanism. Another difference is the output: while a GPT-style language transformer takes a string of tokens as an input and predicts the next token as an output, the initial vision transformer takes a string of image “tokens” as an input and produces a classification of the image as an output.

With a transformer capable of processing vision or text, it’s not much of a leap to design one that can process BOTH image and text: say by feeding it an image and a text query (“What is this a picture of?”) and having the model generate an answer. This is known as a vision-language model, or VLM. LLaVA (short for Large Language and Vision Assistant) is one such model. In LLaVA-1.5, an image is fed into a vision transformer, which breaks it into patches, converts those patches into embeddings, and then sends the embeddings through a series of vision transformer blocks, producing a series of vectors (one for each patch). Those vectors then get converted via what’s known as a “projector,” an MLP that changes their size and modifies their representation into something that an LLM expects. These converted vectors then get fed, along with embeddings from the input text tokens, into an LLM, which consists of another series of transformer blocks. Attention in this transformer can look at both the vectors from the image and text, modifying them based on what’s in the image and what’s in the text. The data flows through the transformer blocks, eventually getting spit out as a predicted string of text (“It’s a picture of a dog”). This basic architecture — a vision transformer, a projector that converts its output into LLM-sized vectors, and then an LLM that processes the text and image data — is common, though various models implement it in different ways.

You can similarly use a transformer architecture to drive a robot, by feeding it information on robot state along with images and text, and having it output a series of robot actions. This is called a vision-language-action model, or VLA. The architecture for the π0.5 VLA is shown in the image below:

Image data from the robot’s cameras, text instructions, and data representing the robot’s state are all converted into token embeddings via various encoders. These then get fed into a language backbone, which consists of a series of 18 transformer blocks. (Interestingly, these have multiple attention heads, but ONLY for the query matrix: the key and value matrices are the same for each attention head. This is called “multi-query attention.”)

Running in parallel with this vision-language model is another transformer, the action transformer, which also consists of 18 transformer blocks (the same as the vision-language model). This action transformer gets fed an input of token embeddings representing essentially 50 random actions. These make their way through the transformer, and at each attention step for each action vector the action transformer looks not only at the other action vectors, but at the vectors from the images, text, and robot state at the corresponding block in the vision-language model. It then modifies those action embeddings, moving them away from random actions based on the information that it obtains from the text and image vectors. As the action vectors make their way through the action transformer, they continue to be modified using information from the processed image, text, and state vectors. The output of the action transformer then gets used to correct the input “noise” actions, and the whole process runs again. After 10 iterations, the output of the action transformer is, hopefully, a useful sequence of 50 actions. (The model processes 50 actions at a time because outputting a single action, and then running the entire model again for the next action, would make the robot move very slowly. This is called “action chunking.”) These actions take the form of joint-angle or gripper-position targets, which then get fed into a traditional robot controller that converts them into motor torques to actually move the robot.

This system was assembled from various pre-existing components and then trained together. The transformer that converts image patches into embedding vectors is called SigLIP, a 400-million-parameter model first created in 2023 and trained on pairs of images and text. In 2024, Google combined SigLIP with an existing, 2-billion-parameter LLM called Gemma (which had been trained on 3 trillion tokens of text) to create the PaliGemma VLM, which was then further trained on over a billion training examples. These examples included tasks like captioning images and answering questions about them. To create the π0.5 VLA, Physical Intelligence took PaliGemma, combined it with a system for converting robot actions into tokens (which they call FAST) and a newly created action transformer (a 300-million-parameter model), and then trained the combined system on various robotic manipulation tasks (as well as some additional image description tasks).

Conclusion

Before looking into this I knew, vaguely, that robot AI models were similar to the models used for AI chatbots that I was familiar with. But I was struck by how much overlap between the two is, with VLAs literally using LLMs trained on text as a major building block, and the basic transformer architecture from LLMs being applied to generate robot actions. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see the same sorts of rapid improvements with robot capabilities that we’ve seen with AI more generally, but it does make me think it might be possible.

Robots and the AI that controls them is something that I expect to become increasingly important, and it’s a subject I plan on spending more and more time on, with more and deeper looks at the technology and how it’s progressing.

1

Over a fixed, bounded range of inputs.

Letitia Clark was once Tustin’s mayor. The comeback tour is upon us.

Letitia Clark is my type of local politician.

First, the Democratic candidate for Tustin mayor ranks SWV as her all-time favorite musical act, and nobody (and I mean nobody) has utilized a Michael Jackson jam better than Sisters with Voices.

Second, while so many of our local leaders have rarely left the secure bubble of Orange County, Clark was working New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina—and refused to bolt, even when her family begged her to.

Third, she writes books.

And fourth—she’s just … normal. Not snazzy. Not trying to impress you. None of the glaze of far too many who enter the field. Hell, the other day the (arch-conservative) Orange County Register (wrongly) endorsed incumbent Austin Lumbard … and Letitia texted it to me. Not to bash Lumbard, not to whine and complain. Just because she knew I was writing about her, and she considered the information relevant. That, my friends, is integrity.

So—to hell with the Register, to hell with TLC and to hell with MAGA. The Truth OC is officially endorsing Letitia Clark (who served as Tustin mayor in the early 2020s) to return to her job, not just because her opponent is a bit of an amoeba, but because she has integrity and decency and a whole lot of passion for her hometown.

One can visit her website here, and donate to her run here.

Letitia Clark, no fear, have no fear—the Truth OC Q&A is right here …

JEFF PEARLMAN: Letitia Clark, first of all, thank you for doing this.

LETITIA CLARK: It is my pleasure.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Okay. This is a question, a recurring question I ask people, and you could definitely give me the cliche answer or you can give the raw answer. It’s totally up to you …

LETITIA CLARK: Okay.

JEFF PEARLMAN: But since I started this website, I’ve decided that anyone who runs for local office has some kind of mental imbalance because there’s no glory in it whatsoever. There’s minimal money in it, if any money in it, whatsoever.

LETITIA CLARK: Yes.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You just become a receptacle for everybody’s complaints and anger. And we live in more politically divided times than ever before. You served on the city council, you were mayor. Being sincere, why would any sane human being—and you do seem to be sane—want to do this?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, no, you’re 100% right. And I’ve decided to put people in three categories because sometimes I wonder why people are in it and I have decided it’s three buckets. It’s either one, you’re like a total egomaniac and it’s all about your ego and you need to be somebody or, two, you’re trying to make up for lost time like something happened in high school or something that just like ... that there’s some validation needed or, three, you really have a heart to serve.

And it’s usually those three that I find and they vary in a degree. But yeah, for me really, it all harkens back to how I even got into politics, which was in college. I grew up in Orange County, went to Tustin High School, went to Xavier University of Louisiana in New Orleans. I wanted really badly to go away to school. My parents were really strict growing up and I was really itching to get away.

Well, I applied to a bunch of schools in DC and I thought I was going to go to Howard or Georgetown or something. My parents were like, “You’re not going there. We don’t have any family there.” So I was like, “Well, where can I go?” And they’re like, “Well, we have tons of family in Louisiana, so anywhere in Louisiana.” And so, I settled on Xavier, wound up being a Catholic school, HBCU that had a curfew of 10 o’clock on the weekdays and midnight on the weekend.

So I didn’t transfer over to much freedom there either, but was a pre-law major, thought I wanted to go to law school, started interning for some local campaigns to make extra money from the pre-law club opportunity. And I saw for the first time Black women running for office. I had never seen that growing up. I didn’t even know that was a possibility. Changed my major from pre-law to political science and then got an internship with the City of New Orleans my senior year of college.

And then I started working as a legislative aid for a council member right out of college. That was ‘05. So I’m about six months into my job as a legislative aid and Hurricane Katrina is approaching the city and I was kind of a guppy. I didn’t know much and got donuts and coffee and can take messages. So at the time my boss was saying, “Okay, you’re essential personnel, you have to stay.” And so I was like, “Oh, I’m important.” So I stayed and I saw everything unfold.

I saw the lack of planning, but then I also saw people 1,000% committed to helping the city come back and restore and heal. And I just got the bug and I learned what it meant to be in a position of influence when it mattered. I learned how important it was to be at the table and to be able to put a voice to people in need. And so I just kind of got the bug at 22 and it hasn’t left me. And so that desire to be at the dais and make decisions on behalf of other people.

Knowing that I have lived through times where lives were literally on the line based on the leadership in place. So that’s why I do it. It’s some kind of weird fixation that I’ve had since then.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You’re a kid from California, you’re in New Orleans during Katrina, everyone’s leaving, you’re staying. I’ll throw a big softball at you. What do you remember ... what actually haunts you in your memory all these years later?

LETITIA CLARK: My parents begging me to find a way to come home or just leave and get out. And yeah, I was just so naive that I was like, “This is my shot. It’ll be fine.” There’s never been a devastating hurricane, or at least it’s been over 40 years. Hurricane Betsy was 40 years prior, but it was another issue where the levee had broken. It wasn’t the actual storm. So I just had no idea how bad it could be, but I wind up losing my car. My entire apartment was flooded.

I was in a hotel and sheltered in place with everyone else. But when we did get back to a point where we could get back into the city, well, we had to evacuate the area just for a couple of weeks and then we went back in and the hotels were open for essential personnel and I had to walk to work. I didn’t have a car. I had to go to Goodwill for clothing, accept any donations that were coming in. Yeah, even to this day, I mean it’s over 20 years … I don’t enjoy eating off a plastic cutlery because that’s all we had for so long, because the water still wasn’t clean enough to wash dishes and things like that. And I can still smell some of those scents that existed in the city because of the rotting fridges, rotting bodies. So there’s things like that. There was a documentary that came out last year, 2025. I couldn’t watch it.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Yeah.

LETITIA CLARK: I tried and I was seeing people that I knew and I couldn’t even get through the first episode.

JEFF PEARLMAN: It’s interesting because I’m from New York and I lived through 9/11 and saw one of the planes. Can’t really digest it. And in the aftermath, in the immediate aftermath, Rudy Giuliani was like this hero, right? He’s doing a great job. He’s pointing. And in a way you kind of had the same thing in New Orleans with Ray Nagin, correct?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah. At first it was like, yes, he’s fighting for us. He’s getting mad with the federal administration. We need somebody to be angry like him. And then it kind of just all took a turn and all of the whatever incompetence, whatever corruption existed beneath the surface and we all lived in it. It all started creeping up and becoming illuminated. And then all of a sudden it was, we got to clear the swamp literally and figuratively.

And it was just a place where a lot of folks were just fed up and really felt like this only happened because folks, they weren’t good stewards of public dollars. They diverted federal funds to handle local projects when it should have been invested in reinforcing the levee. There were buses that people could have gotten on. And then thinking about the high poverty level, over 60% poverty level in New Orleans, and then obviously it was a heavily minority city.

So all those things played into the aftermath of why, how did this happen and how were so many people impacted? So yeah, I mean, again, it just stuck ... it was such a transformative time in my life and I didn’t have kids or a husband. Had it been a different situation, I definitely would have left.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Sure.

LETITIA CLARK: Because it would’ve been too much on the line, but it was just me. So it’s like, “Hey, let’s stay.” But it wound up being the best thing to ... everyone has that one thing that you can harken back to what changed the trajectory of your life and that was it.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So here’s a question for you. You’re in your 20s, this happens. I could see a lot of people being like, “Screw government. It just sucks. These people suck. They’re just greedy and callous and they don’t care and they’re ineffective. Why would I waste my time with this?” Yet somehow it seemed to have at least long-term and opposite effect on you. Why would you say that is?

LETITIA CLARK: Because I think I found out how simple it is just to care and do the right thing, that it really was just a difference in knowing that if I just care a little bit and also knowing that if good people who care and want to do the right thing do not step up and fill these seats, people who have their own agenda will, people who don’t care will, people who don’t have a commitment for a long-term stint, they will come in and make short-term decisions selfishly.

And I guess I just kind of saw the result of that. And so I felt like if I had the ability and the wherewithal that I would treat this almost like it was jury duty. It’s just an obligation that if you have the ability to do it, then you should.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So you had a bunch of interesting jobs actually. You worked for the Georgia State Assembly, you worked for the American Red Cross, you worked for the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors. You bounced around quite a bit before coming back to California. What actually brought you back to California?

LETITIA CLARK: Just personal. I was going through a divorce and honestly, when I think back to how I even met my ex, it was definitely kind of trauma bonding through Katrina because when I look back, it’s like, how did I even end up with this person? But we were bonded through the devastation that was going on in New Orleans. And so when all the dust settled, we just were not right for each other. And my twins were five years old at the time. They’re 19 now.

And so, when we were splitting, it was like I had spent enough time in New Orleans. It was 10 years at that point, and I wanted to be closer to family. My parents were still here, and so it was like, let me move back to what’s familiar. And then starting to really understand how great Orange County seemed comparatively. I don’t have to worry about good schools. I don’t have to worry about crime and just a lot of the things that kind of plague a big metropolitan city.

So yeah, that’s what brought me back. And then I was pretty determined not to just have to start from ground zero. So when I moved back, even though I lived with my parents for a year, I was just really ready to get back into it and started volunteering for the Tustin Community Foundation and then, found a job with the American Academy of Pediatrics. I just wanted to be in the mix and connected to community and public service again.

So I started volunteering right away, and then that eventually led to me trying to seek a commission seat in Tustin. And essentially that’s when the narrative that I learned to understand were telling me, “Hey, it’s not your turn and no one like you has ever served in this body. And so we applaud your efforts, but we’ve already got people in place that we would like to see in these seats.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: Was that from within the Democratic Party?

LETITIA CLARK: No, no, no, no. That was at the powers that be on the current Tustin City Council.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Got it.

LETITIA CLARK: Which were Republican men.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You speak longingly of returning to Orange County and the sort of comfort of Orange County. And we moved here 12 years ago, and I’m a Jewish guy from New York, right? And you can’t get a decent slice of pizza worth a damn here, and you can’t get a good bagel, and not that many Jews around here. And it is almost, surprising might be the wrong word. But you’re a Black woman who spent a lot of time in New Orleans who went to Xavier in New Orleans.

LETITIA CLARK: Right, right.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Speaking longingly about almost the bubble of Orange County.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Okay. It’s an interesting sort of phenomenon right there.

LETITIA CLARK: Sure, sure.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So what is it, as a Black woman in Orange County ... and there are not a super, super-duper ton of Black women in Orange County comparatively.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: What is the yin and yang for you of Orange County?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, I mean, I kind of had this really enchanted type of childhood because my dad grew up here and he was very connected and had this affinity for this place because he was born and raised here. So my grandparents came here from Little Rock, Arkansas, and they moved to Laguna Beach. They lived on a segregated street in Laguna Beach on Ocean Avenue.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wow.

LETITIA CLARK: My dad was the first African American baby born at Hoag Hospital when it was Hoag Presbyterian Hospital.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wow.

LETITIA CLARK: Yes. And so my grandfather ran a gas station on Coast Highway, and my dad talks about his childhood of just being a feral kid, just being able to go to the beach and run around Laguna Beach. And they definitely experienced their fair share of racism. I mean, my grandparents talked about trying to buy a house in Huntington Beach and essentially got turned away from the HOA saying that the quota had been met and they had to take the developer to Fair Housing Court to get their deposit back.

JEFF PEARLMAN: That sounds very Huntington Beach.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, right. Yeah, right. Yeah. Even then, right? And so we have those little stories, but it wasn’t like the headline of our family’s experience here in Orange County. And when I went to Tustin High School, the Marine base was still open. And I remember going to school with kids who were citizens of the world. I mean, a lot of these kids had lived all over the world, and so there was just a lot of tolerance. There was a lot of co-mingling of just kids from every background, and that stuck with me.

And so, when I was able to think about how I wanted to raise my kids, I did start to think about my experience here in Orange County and enjoying going to the beach and enjoying the diversity that existed. Because as you can imagine comparatively, although I ran to an HBCU because I wanted that experience, I kind of was a fish out of water. I had never been around that predominantly Black environment, and I had to learn how to have a voice in a space like that, which eventually I did.

But yeah, I kind of longed for the childhood that I had for my kids, a lot of diversity, a lot of beauty outside. And yeah, we’d have to search for culture here and there, but growing up, there was a better percentage of a Black community, particularly in Santa Ana, that we were very connected to. I grew up in a Black church. We still go there today, Friendship Baptist Church in Yorba Linda of all places. And we have great community there and there are African American families from all over Orange County.

But yeah, I think that’s what kind of drew me back was just that sense of childhood. And even at Tustin, although I was a minority young Black girl, I was the senior class president, I was the captain of the cheerleading squad, I was homecoming queen. So for me, being Black never felt like I couldn’t. And I just had that same mindset. And then, when I came back to Orange County, I was even more emboldened because now I understood Black excellence.

Now, I understood what it meant to be empowered and use my voice. And so, I kind of took that with my really optimistic view of how I grew up here in Orange County and then, just kind of hit the ground running versus letting that feel like that was supposed to be a barrier for me or that I couldn’t, and I wasn’t allowed into certain spaces, even though ... I’m sure it existed, but I just had a naivete that just allowed me to be bold and move forward regardless.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So you ran for the city council in 2016 …

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You’d worked in politics in New Orleans, in Louisiana. What did you learn from having your own election for the first time?

LETITIA CLARK: So you mentioned a little bit about my career. When I worked for the Georgia General Assembly after I left New Orleans for just a stint, because I was overwhelmed from all that was going on and then eventually moved back, I worked for one of the most conservative speakers of the house in Georgia history. His name was Glen Richardson. Glen Richardson. And it was part of this, almost like a fellows program that someone in New Orleans helped me get the position to just get a breather. And I learned a lot from being in his office.

I helped create some bridges and start some conversations with the Georgia Black Caucus in his office who were at odds when I got to the office. So I think I learned in the South to be what they would call a stateswoman. I learned how to cross the aisle, talk the language of being able to be a little more nonpartisan. And surprisingly enough, when I was telling folks I wanted to run, I was like, “You think it’s going to be an issue because I’m Black and I’m a woman, there’s never been one on the Tustin City Council?”

They’re like, “Yeah, we’re not worried about that.” I’m like, “Well, what about me being a single mom? Do you think that’ll be an issue?” No. They’re like, “But being a Democrat, that will never fly.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: Interesting.

LETITIA CLARK: They’re like, “You got to change that.” And I didn’t, but I was very discouraged. I was encouraged to try to move to decline the state or independent or something like that. They just thought that was going to be really hard. I knocked on doors, thousands of doors in 2016, and we knocked on Republican and Democratic doors. And when I went to Republican households, they were grilling me about certain things, often not knowing that I couldn’t handle a lot of federal issues like abortion and gun rights, et cetera.

But I’d often see some kind of paraphernalia in the house that had Tustin High on it. And so, I would make that connection right away like, “Hey, I know we’re probably different party affiliations, but I’m a Tustin Tiller.” And then all of a sudden the door opened a little wider and the conversation got a little softer. And I realized over time, okay, there are a lot of people that have some kind of connection to the oldest high school in Tustin, and I’m an alum there and I’m very connected there.

And so, I used that in the campaign to just remind people that we have a lot of similarities and we should talk about those things before we start talking about our differences. And I capitalized on that and used all those nostalgic references in my mailers. And there was a slate, two incumbents and one newcomer who was Austin Lumbard at the time who I’m running against right now. And I came in second out of the four, so their slate did not win and I beat another incumbent in terms of votes. So it was considered a very successful campaign.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Tustin confuses me a little because, okay, registration, Republicans 27%. Democrats, 41%.

LETITIA CLARK: Now, yeah. It didn’t used to be like that.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So when did that shift?

LETITIA CLARK: 2016, started to shift. Before that-

JEFF PEARLMAN: What caused that?

LETITIA CLARK: Trump. We didn’t even have a Democratic club in Tustin. There was no infrastructure to help me when I ran, no one to walk for me, no one to organize. As a Dem, I was literally on my own in Tustin. I had to rely a lot on the party and hope that maybe someone in Irvine or Garden Grove or Buena Park would come and help me out. But then after Trump was elected in 2016, then we had a Tustin Democratic Club form.

And then four years later, the Tustin Democratic Club merged with Orange, and now it’s the Central Dems, and they have over 500 members, which Democrats were in hiding when I first ran. They were like, “Yeah, I’m a Dem on paper, but I would never tell any of my neighbors.” That’s the kind of environment. So it literally changed within eight years.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So when you were mayor, you were mayor ... I mean, excuse me, you were on the council from ‘16 to ‘24. It was a rotating mayoral position at that time.

LETITIA CLARK: Right. Yeah, rotating.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So what did it mean to you? Wait, why did you do the air quotes when you said “rotating”? Were they not fair about it?

LETITIA CLARK: Because it wasn’t truly an equitable rotation. It’s not like everyone just got their turn. The council still had to vote, and they actually bypassed my colleague, Beckie Gomez, several times. She was on the council for 12 years and was never mayor. We could never get the votes to appoint her to be mayor.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So that’s happening in Mission Viejo now with a woman named Cynthia Vasquez, where she’s been on the council for a long time. She’s the lone Democrat.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: They literally won’t let her be mayor.

LETITIA CLARK: Right.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Is this just ... to be blunt, is this just asshole behavior from people who are being assholes?

LETITIA CLARK: Because when you think about it’s like, well, what does it even mean to be a mayor on a five member city ... or seven member city council, if it’s not a strong mayor position, then it literally is just the title, it’s the ceremony. And then, if the person is doing what’s right with it, they’re setting the vision and the tone of the city. But yeah, that’s why we can’t say it truly rotates because it doesn’t.

JEFF PEARLMAN: So how did you get it?

LETITIA CLARK: Worked with my colleagues, used that Southern hospitality stateswoman stuff that I learned, really. And created alliances and friendships to find a way to get to the point, understanding that, what it would mean for me to be mayor and not compromising any of my values, but not making it so much that I needed to be a martyr that it’s like, “Oh, well, they’ll just never vote for me for mayor, so I might as well just not even try.”

No, I try to make connections, develop relationships, and educate where I can. Alan Bernstein rests his soul, he passed away a few years ago. During 2020, while the aftermath of George Floyd, he called me at 11 or 12:00 one night asking me, does systemic racism really exist? And I had to tell him, “I don’t have the bandwidth to have this conversation with you, but I will have this conversation with you.” And in a way, it kind of felt like, why do I have to have this conversation?

Why do I have to educate everyone? But that’s how I developed relationships because I was willing to do it. Even though I shouldn’t have had to do it, I was willing to do some of that education. And I think my colleagues respected me for it. And yeah, I had a unanimous vote for mayor in 2020 after I was reelected. And even though I came out number one out of nine candidates, there were just folks that woke up and decided they were going to run for city council in 2020.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Is it true being the mayor of Tustin is the greatest job in the world? That’s what I heard. Is that true?

LETITIA CLARK: That’s what you heard? I’d have to check your sources, your circle of influence there.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Did you enjoy your year as mayor?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, I did. It was great. I mean, I think I had a hundred meetings online, but I know, it was insane.

JEFF PEARLMAN: All I want now is to be mayor so I can have a hundred meetings.

LETITIA CLARK: I started counting them at some point. I don’t know. I kind of felt like I was meant to be mayor at that point because I hearkened so much of what I experienced during Hurricane Katrina. It was like, okay, it’s go mode. We’re getting into restoration. We’re going to figure out how to have drive-through vaccine clinics, and we’re going to do food distribution. So I was doing all those things. It just kind of felt like we were in emergency response mode, and that was my pocket.

So it felt oddly comfortable, and I just felt like I was the right person to be mayor at that time.

JEFF PEARLMAN: What would you say your greatest achievement or moment or whatever as mayor was?

LETITIA CLARK: I mean, I have a few, and I think I feel like they are great moments because I’ve seen replication of them in other cities, and it just makes me feel like, okay, the impact was bigger and greater than just Tustin. And that’s the Girls in Government program that I helped to start. That didn’t come easy. The funding for it didn’t come easily, but trying to expose more girls in our community to jobs in the city. I helped to start Lemonade Day, a citywide Lemonade Day for kids to learn about how to set up a stand.

How to have a marketing plan, all those things. So Lakewood has done Lemonade Day. They’re doing it bigger and better than Tustin ever did. Anaheim and Lakewood actually did a Girls and Youth in Government, just literally modeled after what we did. And then honestly, writing the book was ... I had no idea how big that would become. I mean, we sold over 10,000 copies across the world.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, this was Mommy is the Mayor?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah. Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You sold 10,000 copies of your book?

LETITIA CLARK: Yes. I had no idea how successful it would be. I knew nothing about publishing. I knew nothing. And it obviously had an impact because I think it was a story that needed to be told and people hadn’t seen anything like that before. So I felt so great to be able to put something out there and it wasn’t theoretical. It was like, yes, I’m currently the mayor and I’m currently a mom, and so this is my story. And I didn’t have to say anything about me being a Black woman or the only woman.

It was all through pictures. We didn’t have to say any of that in writing. It was just illustrated and I just loved the representation in the book.

JEFF PEARLMAN: That’s cool. My knowledge of Tustin politics is not A plus. It’s probably a C minus. Why did you not run for mayor in 2022 when Austin Lumbard won the position?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, because we had term limits, so you could do eight years and it wasn’t clear that if I ran for a different position, whether it actually would restart the clock or if I would be limited and have to resign after two years because I had met the eight-year limit.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I see.

LETITIA CLARK: So something like that happened, I think in Costa Mesa and maybe Orange where the person tried to run for mayor in the middle of their council term and they were overruled that they wouldn’t be able to continue in the mayor position. So I didn’t want to waste money trying to run a mayor campaign and then have to step off and then just wanted to do it the right way. So essentially by law, it didn’t seem like I was able to run. So that’s why we really got behind Becky.

And then, we thought it was our opportunity to write history so that it’s like, “Okay, you never picked her to be the rotating appointed mayor. Let’s get her to run and get her elected” and it wasn’t successful.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You obviously served on the council with Austin Lumbard. You’re now running against him. He’s a Republican. You are not. I guess first, what was your working relationship like with him when you guys worked on the council?

LETITIA CLARK: Very cordial, very cordial. He has young kids, so we kind of always found connections in that. He’s a really quiet guy. I would say that we disagreed on a lot of policy things, but we always found a way to be extremely cordial, if not very respectful, but usually didn’t have a problem disagreeing behind the scenes. And sometimes in public would make it clear that we differed on policy issues. I guess the big comparison now is that I’ve talked in the community that the silence is deafening. It’s quiet to a fault.

There’s nothing being said about ICE presence in Tustin. There’s nothing being said about what we do to support our community to make sure that they feel seen and heard. And I mean when people are losing their SNAP benefits, when people don’t ... and I’m knocking on doors and folks are saying, “I can’t afford to live in Tustin anymore. I don’t even know how I’m going to pay my rent next month.” And so there’s just a silence from the council.

And namely in the mayor position, there’s an opportunity to speak on some of these issues that are impacting our community and there’s nothing. So that’s the real comparison there. But yeah, I mean, he’s a nice guy. We just-

JEFF PEARLMAN: It’s not a blood sport election.

LETITIA CLARK: I hope not. I hope not. And him and I had a conversation about being committed to not attacking each other. I kind of said, “Period, you won’t see any attack ads from me because it’s not my character.” And he said, “Well, you have the same commitment for me, but I can’t control what other people do.” Now, I didn’t give that caveat. I know that that can happen, but I also know that I can encourage all of my supporters to not ... to respect my wishes of the campaign. So I thought that was kind of interesting that it was kind of more of a comma, not a period.

It was a period from my perspective. But I mean, what? We’re 30 something days out, so I hope that we keep it focused on the issues and focused on our own campaigns. But yeah, he’s not one of these extremely loud MAGA Republicans that we see throughout the county or whatnot.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, I’m kind of fascinated by something. In 2019, he posted on Instagram, this isn’t me dogging him actually, he had a picture of two people holding hands, and one is a Democrat and one is a Republican, he wrote ... I don’t think he came up with this. I think he just posted it, but … This is Bob. He voted Republican. This is Bob’s friend, Sally. Sally voted Democrat. Bob and Sally are still friends because Bob and Sally are both adults. Be like Bob and Sally.

And that was seven years ago. And I actually wonder, being serious about this, and I’m not even referring specifically to your election. Is that an unrealistic look at America in 2026 or do you think we can get back to something like that?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, I’m so optimistic in almost every other regard. I think we’re so far from the days of moderates on both sides of the aisle. And I think what we’re finding, at least in the Democratic Party, is you got to just find your section of the tent. It’s such a big tent, and yeah, all of us don’t agree with every single thing, but you got to find your area and you got to laser focus on your niche and try to accomplish what’s in your sphere because there’s just so much work to be done.

But I think, yeah, I’m always going to be the side of decency, the side of equity, social justice. That’s always going to be in my bailiwick. So if a Republican can get with some of those things, then sure, we can coalesce. But as long as the Republican Party is veering so far away from that, then I think it’s hard to say we can come together because what a Democrat is and what a Republican is today is just not what it was even seven years ago.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I wish more people ... like you said, you look at Austin Lumbard’s social media, he doesn’t seem like a bad guy. I will say he posted after January 6 happened, he wrote a very heartfelt thing about how awful this is. And I would say not a peep since, not a peep about ICE, not a peep about Trump, not a peep about deportations, not a peep about the Epstein files, nothing. And the problem is real leadership isn’t like muting yourself. Real leadership is actually sometimes going against and speaking out.

And I just think, again, I got no beef with this guy. I think it kind of sucks that you don’t have the wherewithal to at least say something.

LETITIA CLARK: Right. And at some point, are you now misusing your platform because you have an opportunity to speak to the broader community and it’s just nothing.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Are you an underdog?

LETITIA CLARK: No.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Do you feel like you’re going to win this?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, I do. I think I have the base. I think we’ve raised the money. We’re knocking on doors. We’re getting endorsements. We’re in a strong position now. I’m not taking anything for granted obviously, but I’ve had to remind some folks who I think are doubting in a biased way. They’re not even looking at the data. Not only is it a majority Democrat registered area now, it’s a plus eight Dem at large city now. So what’s incumbent upon us is now to turn out the voters and we’re doing everything.

I’ll have six plus mailers going out. We’re knocking on hundreds of doors every weekend. We have a broad coalition of support from veterans to unions to just about every Democrat elected official in the county and beyond. And we launched our campaign literally a year tomorrow. So we’ve been working. And again, I’m not a new no-name candidate that I was in 2016. And so, we’re capitalizing on my record and my roots in the community. And then, doing all the things that are needed for a winning campaign.

And yeah, not taking not one day for granted and working hard. And we say often that Republicans may be able to outraise us, but that doesn’t mean they can outwork us and they definitely can’t out ... Yeah, just work ethic. They can’t outwalk us and outwork us. So that’s the goal.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Is it true asking for money is super fun?

LETITIA CLARK: Now, the mayor being the best job in the world, that might be closer to truth than raising-

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, how much does it suck asking for money?

LETITIA CLARK: It sucks so much. It just is the worst thing. But I have learned to just remind people, look, this check is not going to me. This is not for me. This is not to lie in my pockets. This is not to make me rich. This is so we have a voice. This is so we have representation. This is so we have a fighting chance. I think I’m even more passionate about not leaning into the fundraising absolutely sucks and I don’t want to do it. I’m on the phone every week, every day making some type of call.

Because I did my dissertation on women of color running for office and their fundraising experience. And just data-wise, I mean literally the best candidates out there could not raise their counterparts if they were white and male. Okay, I’ll give you a great example. I had one union, they love me, they support me. They’re like, “We’re with you, Letitia. Come meet with us.” Sat with them for an hour. They wrote me a maxed out check. Okay, awesome. I’m thinking I’m good. Then I see Austin’s report, they gave him a maxed out check too.

So I called them and I said, “Hey guys, what’s going on? Are you endorsing both of us?” “Oh no, no, we’re not endorsing both of you. We’re supporting you.” “Well, why’d you guys give him a maxed out check?” And I said, well ... and then what did he say when he met with you? What commitments did he make?” “Oh, we didn’t meet with him. One of our members just thought it’d be a good idea to send him a check.” So he’s getting checks, not even having to ask for them.

And here I am, I had to spend time, meet with these folks, and these are supportive folks. So that’s kind of what I’m up against. So I don’t have time to get too down about how much it sucks to raise money because there will be folks that just write him a check without him even asking, without him even wanting it.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I just want to say, ever since I started this website, I’ve had a good number of people say to me, “You should run for something. You should run for something.”

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You just gave up ... in the future, I’m going to literally record that segment you just said to me and just play it for anyone who says, “Why aren’t you running?” I’m just going to be like, “Here’s Letitia Clark right here. She answered for me. She didn’t even know she was doing this. Public service. Thank you.” You summed it up. Wait, I’m being serious about this.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I get it. You like the job. I get it, public service is like, it just seems so unpleasant to run for office. Is there a bright side to ... forget the winning. Is there actually a bright side to the process of running for office?

LETITIA CLARK: The process is tough. It’s literally like the sausage being made, but once you put it on the grill and it’s cooking and yeah, it tastes good. But the process of making that sausage, I don’t know anyone who says they love campaigning. Now, I’ll tell you, I’ve learned to love knocking on doors because you get to talk to people and you’re having real genuine conversations, and I do truly enjoy that part, but I’m in communications. I know you have to hear something seven times before you remember it, so it won’t matter how ... I can’t knock on every door seven times.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Yeah.

LETITIA CLARK: So, we have to raise money to do the mail, to do the ads, so people see that name enough times to remember, “Oh yeah, that’s who I talked to at my door. That’s who called me and we had this conversation.” So if I don’t want all that work to be in vain, I know I have to raise the money to help remind voters what I’m all about and what I stand for, and that’s why you need the money. But no, it is not pleasant. It is not fun.

And you’re going to get people in those three buckets. Whoever says it’s fun has a whole nother motive. It is not to serve. It is to get contacts or to find out who has money in town. It is not because they just want to serve. They’re finding enjoyment for other reasons.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Right. I’m going to end this with a couple of rapid fires. You’re good with that?

LETITIA CLARK: Okay.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Give me your three favorite musical artists of all time.

LETITIA CLARK: Okay. SWV.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Really?

LETITIA CLARK: I’m a 90s-

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, Letitia. We’re about to be best friends. My son is a 19-year-old college junior, and he loves SWV, like loves …

LETITIA CLARK: I felt like I was born 10 years too late. I was like 11 when SWV was in their prime.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Come on. SWV is awesome.

LETITIA CLARK: I was 20 years old at the time.

JEFF PEARLMAN: All right. SWV. Who else?

LETITIA CLARK: SWV, I would say D’Angelo. Rest in peace.

JEFF PEARLMAN: My son’s favorite artist.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, my gosh. Then he has great taste.

JEFF PEARLMAN: True.

LETITIA CLARK: And then probably Brandy.

JEFF PEARLMAN: If only you were a 19-year-old student at Northeastern, you’d be dating my son right now. I’m not kidding.

LETITIA CLARK: My gosh, my gosh.

JEFF PEARLMAN: You just hit three of his top five. That’s really funny.

LETITIA CLARK: Wow. I love it.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Give me your favorite movie of all time.

LETITIA CLARK: Probably Coming to America with Eddie Murphy.

JEFF PEARLMAN: The sequel, very disappointing though.

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, just terrible. Just a waste of vibe.

JEFF PEARLMAN: If I can eat one meal in Tustin, where should I go?

LETITIA CLARK: Go to American Grub, get a grilled cheese and tomato soup on any given day. It could be hot, rainy. It’s literally going to hit the spot.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Where’s your favorite vacation spot you’ve ever been to?

LETITIA CLARK: We just went to Maui with the family, and it’s the first time in my family’s whole experience of ever going on vacation. I didn’t plan any excursions. I didn’t overbook us, and we had the best time and just really relaxed. So that’s probably going to be my favorite spot because my kids got to see me and my husband totally relaxed. We’re like, “Hey, do whatever you guys want. We don’t care.” And they’re like “Oh, you all are different here.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: Last question. Give me your three political role models. How about that? We’re heroes.

LETITIA CLARK: Well, Shirley Chisholm is always going to be pretty high on the list.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Yep.

LETITIA CLARK: Well, I mean, I want to say Michelle Obama, but she’s not-

JEFF PEARLMAN: You can count her.

LETITIA CLARK: And then maybe Ayanna Pressley.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Okay. Good one.

LETITIA CLARK: I borrow from her. She likes to say, “Policy is my love language,” and I resonate with that. I’m like, “Yeah, I get that.”

JEFF PEARLMAN: I recently interviewed Katrina Foley for this website, and I always thought she was from afar little gruff. And I’ve got to say, she loves meetings and she loves being wonky. And I was like, “Wow, you’re just a policy nerd.”

LETITIA CLARK: She’s such a nerd in all the good ways, right?

JEFF PEARLMAN: Totally. Are you the same?

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah, and I don’t have a lot of ... my circle’s pretty small, so I don’t just surround myself around a lot of politically wonky people, but when I find folks that I can just nerd out with over politics who are actually genuine friends, it is literally the best.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I’ve got to say—dinner with Letitia Clark. Maybe not that fun.

LETITIA CLARK: Hahahaha. Well, if we keep the politics out of, it might be fun. We just can’t call it a meeting, Jeff.

JEFF PEARLMAN: Wait, let me ask you a final, final question. Actually being serious, I ask this of everyone. Do you think, whatever, 10, 15, 20 years from now, we look back at this period and we think that was really the ruination of America, that was the beginning of the end and everything with Trump just ruined this place. Do you think we look back and say, “That was a really dark period that somehow we got past?”

LETITIA CLARK: Yeah. Yeah. And I think it kind of starts with January 6th. There was so much chaos going on before that, but once ... it was such a violation, which oddly enough, I actually heard that Austin had commented on a Jesus statue being violated in Santa Ana, and our veteran statue, something happened ... someone was trying to steal the copper, and he had gone on record saying that it was such a violation. It’s like, “Yes, you’re right. It is a violation.” So how are any of us okay with what happened on January 6th.

Have you ever been in the halls, and if you’ve ever been in any place where it’s supposed to be solemn and respectful, and to see what happened, and it was allowed, and it was encouraged, and I think we crossed a line that we haven’t been able to get that back since then. And yeah, I do hope ... I don’t know about 10 years though, Jeff. I don’t know, but I think we will get to a time saying, “How do we get through that?” And we never want to go back to that. It’s like a pendulum.

And what we saw in 2020 was that pendulum swing far, far to the left. Everyone was DEI. Then we added the A, and everyone was all on board and okay to say Black Lives Matter, and then it shifted right back. We just need to get a little bit swinging left of center again. So yeah, I don’t know. I don’t know what will happen to get a-

JEFF PEARLMAN: But what I’m hearing you say is Black Lives do not matter. Is that what I’m- [Laughs]

LETITIA CLARK: [Laughs] I’m definitely not saying that.

JEFF PEARLMAN: I didn’t think so.

#TOC

September 30, 2026

A Washington Post headline today read: “U.S. withdraws forces in Iraq as balance of power shifts to Iran.”

Journalists Mustafa Salim and Alex Horton explained: After more than two decades, the deaths of more than 200,000 Iraqi civilians and more than 4,500 U.S. troops, the wounding of more than 30,000 U.S. military personnel, and the cost of more than $2.8 trillion, the last of the U.S. military forces in Iraq today pulled out of Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq.

In December 2021 the military announced it was ending U.S. combat in Iraq, leaving about 2,500 troops to advise and assist Iraqi forces. In 2023 the Iraqi government called for complete U.S. withdrawal, and former President Joe Biden and former Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani agreed to a withdrawal plan in 2024, but Iraq allowed a small contingent of advisors to remain after that deadline when the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria led to concerns that the confusion in Syria would allow militant Islamic groups to regain a foothold there.

At the time Biden agreed to withdraw from Iraq, Iran appeared to be on the ropes, with its regime isolated from neighboring countries and laboring under sanctions and increasing public unrest. Now, as Salim and Horton note, Trump’s impulsive war on Iran has strengthened Iran’s hand in the region.

The U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on the United States two years before, although Iraq was not involved in that attack.

After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, a group of foreign policy hawks known as “neocons” were frustrated that Democratic President Bill Clinton was not pushing American ideology overseas as hard as they thought he should. In 1997, political commentator William Kristol brought together Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and other neocons to insist that the United States should significantly increase defense spending and lead the world.

Believing that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein was destabilizing the Middle East, they saw removing him from power as key to their “Project for the New American Century.” Iraq had allied with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and neocons believed the U.S. must “challenge regimes hostile to our interests and values” and “promote the cause of political and economic freedom abroad.”

Saddam was out of reach until September 11, 2001, when neocons saw al-Qaeda’s attack on the U.S. as an opportunity to “hit” Saddam Hussein, although he had not been involved in the attack. The terrorists—fifteen from Saudi Arabia, two from the United Arab Emirates, one from Lebanon, and one from Egypt—were operating out of Afghanistan, where the ruling extremist Islamic government, the Taliban, permitted al-Qaeda to have a foothold.

Although Saddam was not affiliated with the 9/11 attackers, officials in the George W. Bush administration pushed so hard on the idea that the terrorists were affiliated with Iraq that many Americans—especially those who watched the Fox News Channel, which pushed the connection—came to believe, incorrectly, that the 9/11 terrorists either were Iraqi or were

working with Saddam Hussein.

Bush launched attacks on the Taliban government, successfully overthrowing it before the end of 2001. And then the administration undertook to reorder the Middle East in America’s image. In 2002 it announced the Bush Doctrine, arguing that the new conditions of terrorism required the government to act preemptively to forestall hostile acts rather than wait for an attack.

It embraced the idea that there was “right and wrong” in foreign affairs and demanded that America wage “a war of ideas” by spreading pro-American economic and cultural policies. It warned that there were few greater threats to America than a terrorist attack with weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), meaning nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons.

To convince recalcitrant foreign policy realists that Saddam Hussein needed to be removed from power, Bush administration officials warned that the dictator was amassing WMDs, including nuclear devices. In a television interview, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice warned of mushroom clouds rising over American cities and insisted that Saddam was working to obtain a nuclear weapon.

On February 5, 2003, Secretary of State Colin Powell, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke passionately before the United Nations, providing what he insisted was evidence that Saddam had chemical WMDs and had obtained the resources to create nuclear weapons. He hinted that the Iraqi leader had worked with al-Qaeda in 2001 or that he might in the future.

Powell was well known and trusted; if he said Iraq was deadly dangerous, people thought it must be true. It later turned out that Powell had not personally vetted the “evidence” he presented and that it was almost entirely either discredited or made up of rumor.

But his speech did the trick. Enough countries to call it a “coalition of the willing”—although the only major power that participated was the United Kingdom—backed an invasion of Iraq. On March 20, 2003, American troops invaded Iraq with the intention of overthrowing Saddam Hussein’s government. The operation would be a “cakewalk,” the administration thought; desperate Iraqis who hated their leader would welcome coalition forces with open arms. Like cowboy heroes—and often portrayed as cowboys—American soldiers would bring democracy and capitalism to the benighted Iraqis.

Saddam’s forces crumbled in little over a month. By May the United States had set up a transitional government in Iraq overseen by former ambassador and State Department official L. Paul Bremer.

On May 1, 2003, Bush landed in a fixed-wing aircraft on the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. Wearing a flight suit, he posed for photographs with the vessel’s crew, which had just returned from the Persian Gulf. Bush then gave a speech announcing the end of major combat operations in Iraq. Festooning the aircraft carrier was a giant banner emblazoned “Mission Accomplished.”

But, of course, it wasn’t.

Today on social media, Trump took credit to himself for ending the U.S. engagement in Iraq—although he confused the names of two different Iraqi operations—complaining that it was “very bad decision-making that got us involved in this quagmire in the first place.”

And yet the United States is entering its eighth month of a war on Iran that Trump apparently began with the same cowboy mentality Bush carried into the war in Iraq.

Today Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a “State of the Force” address at Marine Corps Base Quantico. He announced he had transformed the military by enforcing the idea of “[n]o fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals. Just warriors.”

“The ideological clowns are out,” he said. “The patriotic cowboys are in, with testosterone testing on top.”

—

Notes:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/29/us-withdraws-forces-iraq-balance-power-shifts-iran/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/18/middleeast/iraq-announces-full-withdrawal-of-us-forces-from-its-federal-territory

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/30/pentagon-says-us-troop-withdrawal-from-iraq-is-complete

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/iraqs-search-for-security-and-sovereignty-after-assads-collapse/

“Statement of Principles,” June 3, 1997, and Elliott Abrams et al. to William Jefferson Clinton, January 26, 1998, both at Project for a New American Century.

Steven Kull, Clay Ramsay, and Evan Lewis, “Misperceptions, the Media, and the Iraq War,” Political Science Quarterly 118 (Winter 2003/2004) : 569–598.

https://www.cnn.com/2003/US/01/10/wbr.smoking.gun/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/magazine/2006/10/01/falling-on-his-sword-span-classbankheadcolin-powells-most-significant-moment-turned-out-to-be-his-lowestspan/0574eff4-0137-4c0a-8e6b-f8bf7575f389/

https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/14/1/5.2

https://www.npr.org/2026/09/30/nx-s1-5986304/hegseth-troops-address

Trump’s Truth:

statuses/42030

Bluesky:

atrupar.com/post/3mwr274cutq2l

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Alvin Roth to the rescue, the polity that is Singapore

Singapore has launched a dating platform, the latest social-engineering experiment by the city-state’s government to tackle its fast-declining fertility rate.

The initiative, known as FirstDate, opened under a pilot scheme this month for public sector employees aged 21-35 and uses a Nobel Economics Prize-winning matchmaking algorithm. An additional tool suggests date activities and allows users — who receive only one match at a time — to rate their experience in a survey.

The platform is the product of the annual hackathon held by the Singapore government’s technology agency earlier this year.

“FirstDate started with a question among a group of GovTech officers: does having more potential matches necessarily make it easier to find a suitable match?” the website said.

The app, which joins a crowded field of dating apps as well as more bespoke matchmaking services, is Singapore’s latest effort to reverse its falling birth rate, which has made the city-state one of the world’s fastest-ageing countries.

Here is more from Owen Walker at the FT.

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Launch preview: More than 100 spacecraft hitch a ride to orbit on SpaceX’s Transporter-18

A Falcon 9 rocket stands ready for launch from Vandenberg in this file photo. Image: SpaceX.

An artificial intelligence prototype from Google, a methane-tracker, pharmaceutical manufacturing labs, and more are hitching a ride onboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket flying from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Thursday afternoon.

The Transporter-18 mission is SpaceX second launch of the day, following the successful flight of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission from Florida.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East is scheduled for 11:32 a.m. PDT (2:32 p.m. EDT / 1832 UTC). The rocket will head off on a southerly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about 30 minutes prior to liftoff.

SpaceX will launch the mission using the Falcon 9 booster with the tail number B1082. This will be its 25th flight following the launches of NROL-145, USSF-62, and OneWeb Launch 20, and 21 batches of Starlink satellites.

Nearly 7.5 minutes after liftoff, B1082 will target a landing back at Landing Zone 4. This will be the 36th landing at this site and 665th landing of a Falcon booster to date.

The 130 payloads will be deployed into a polar orbit of the course of 11 minutes starting about 54 minutes into the flight.

Thursday assorted links

1. Cato’s Vision for Liberty award for 50k.

2. Gross output signals an economic surge (WSJ).

3. Echo, a new AI site to mimic the styles of particular writers or writing styles.  Thread on it here.

4. “Open USD (OUSD), the new stablecoin from Coinbase, Mastercard, Stripe, Visa and others launches…”

5. Are men or women more tolerant of differing views?

6. On AI desires.

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China launches Guowang, Yaogan-40 satellites, sets up busy Q4 manifest

HELSINKI — China completed its ninth and tenth launches of September, sending Guowang and Yaogan satellites into orbit, ahead of an intense finish to the year. A Long March 8A […]

The post China launches Guowang, Yaogan-40 satellites, sets up busy Q4 manifest appeared first on SpaceNews.

Galileo Space Is Building Satellites That Turn Signals Into Answers in Orbit

Galileo Space is building satellites designed to turn signals into answers in orbit. Modern defense and commercial operations need fast answers about what is happening and where. Existing systems can […]

The post Galileo Space Is Building Satellites That Turn Signals Into Answers in Orbit appeared first on SpaceNews.

NaviGate successfully demonstrates onboard precise orbit determination aboard D-Orbit’s ION Satellite Carrier

ROME, 30/09/2026 – NaviGate, an Italian space technology company spun out of Sapienza University of Rome, has successfully completed the in-orbit demonstration (IoD) of NaviCode Caravel, its autonomous onboard precise […]

The post NaviGate successfully demonstrates onboard precise orbit determination aboard D-Orbit’s ION Satellite Carrier appeared first on SpaceNews.

What should I ask Moxie Marlinspike?

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him, live at the Roots of Progress event next week.  From Wikipedia:

Moxie Marlinspike is an American entrepreneur, cryptographer, and computer security researcher. Marlinspike is the creator of Signal, co-founder of the Signal Technology Foundation, and served as the first CEO of Signal Messenger LLC. He is also a co-author of the Signal Protocol encryption used by Signal, WhatsApp, Google Messages, Facebook Messenger and Skype.

There is much more at the link, for instance he is also an anarchist of some kind or another.  So what should I ask him?

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Rethinking risk with electronics for space

In this episode, SpaceNews’ Mike Gruss speaks with Ken Stoler, the space business development lead for Arrow. They discuss how spacecraft designers and operators have changed their attitudes toward risk, […]

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LMT Group and Novaspace partner to develop strategy for 5G/6G satellite communications hub in Latvia

Noordwijk, the Netherlands | September 22, 2026 – During the international Industry Space Days 2026 event at the European Space Agency’s ESTEC facility in Noordwijk, the Netherlands, the Latvian Mobile Telephone […]

The post LMT Group and Novaspace partner to develop strategy for 5G/6G satellite communications hub in Latvia appeared first on SpaceNews.

First Date: Singapore's government dating app

The government of Singapore is rolling out a dating site, initially as "A pilot for public officers only."  It infers preferences from questionnaire responses, and uses the deferred acceptance algorithm to produce one match per participant in each match run.

Here it is: FirstDate.
"Start something real.
An initiative to support singles aged 21-35 in their dating journey, verified using Singpass."
"Find your match.  Applications close on 05 Oct 23:59" 

"Swipe fatigue ends here. Receive one match at a time, so you can focus on building a thoughtful connection.

"Designed with your privacy in mind. Only your match sees your profile, and you decide if your contact details are shared. 

...

"What is FirstDate?
"FirstDate started with a question among a group of GovTech officers: does having more potential matches necessarily make it easier to find a suitable match?

"The team shared an interest in exploring some of the challenges people can face when meeting someone new. They wondered whether a different approach that places greater emphasis on compatibility through values and preferences, and offers fewer matches at a time, could give users more space to consider each introduction and decide whether they would like to take the next step. They explored the idea at GovTech Singapore's annual {build} hackathon, where officers develop and test new ideas.

"That idea became FirstDate, a ground-up pilot initiative currently being tested across Public Service.


"How does the matching work?
FirstDate uses your questionnaire responses, including your interests, habits, values and preferences, to understand what you're looking for in a potential partner.

"It then applies the Gale-Shapley Stable Marriage algorithm, an established mathematical approach that generates pairings based on participants' preferences to recommend matches based on compatibility."

#########

Here's some  coverage from Singapore Samizdat:

How Singapore’s government-run dating service works, and why it won’t solve the nation’s dating woes
Here are the 30+ questions in the matchmaking tool that Singapore is deploying to solve the incel problem. 

"Three years after the demise of the Social Development Network, it looks like a new government-run matchmaker is back on the cards for Singapore.

Earlier this month, a pilot progamme by GovTech called FirstDate was announced, with government workers set to be the first batch of daters. If this sounds familiar, that’s because I was the first to report on GovTech testing the waters with this idea all the way back in April for The Straits Times."

#######

Financial Times,
Singapore taps Nobel-winning formula for government dating app
 

 

Green tree ants are famous in the tropics

Collage of close-up photos of ants on greenery with varying poses; detailed view highlights ant features and textures.

In tropical forests ruled by aggressive ants, these species have adopted a ‘fake it till you make it’ survival strategy

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Reason is more than a tool

Close-up photo of a circuit board with two CPU-like components showing classical portraits instead of standard chips.

If intelligence is merely optimisation then machines will outrun us. Kant tells us why human reason is so much more

- by Sasha Mudd

Read on Aeon

He’s Here To End Death - EP 90 Dr. Emil Kendziorra

A few years ago, some people put me in a van and drove me to the edge of Moscow. And by “the edge of Moscow,” I mean where things started to get a bit rural. We turned off a road and went toward what looked like a modest farmhouse with a shed. After exiting the van, we entered said shed and found two large metal containers that were full of human bodies and heads along with the bodies of many animals, including dogs, cats, and a hummingbird. Have a look.

These bodies were being cryopreserved with liquid nitrogen in the hope that they could be reanimated at some point in the future when science has advanced and more illnesses can be cured.

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Cryopreservation/reanimation is not a new idea. It’s been contemplated in literature for hundreds of years. Alcor, perhaps the most well-known cryopreservation company, was founded way back in 1972. The field, though, has suffered from questionable science and been seen as a scientific backwater.

Our guest this week wants to add scientific, intellectual, and pragmatic rigor to the cryopreservation field or what he calls the biostasis field. He’s Dr. Emil Kendziorra, the founder and CEO of Tomorrow Bio.

Tomorrow Bio has a team that will show up at the end of life and prepare someone’s body for preservation and then store their body in a Swiss vault.

In this episode, we get into the mechanics behind Tomorrow Bio and the pros and cons of biostasis. Kendziorra is a sober, deep thinker on this topic and a great listen.

OUR SPONSOR

BREX

The Core Memory podcast is sponsored by Brex, the intelligent finance platform built to help companies spend smarter and move faster.

We run on Brex and so should you. Learn more about Brex right here.

TIMESTAMPS (they link out to YouTube)

CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
5:08 Cryonics Without the Ice
8:45 Heads in a Russian Shed
12:26 Longevity's Backup Plan
19:39 The First Hours After Death
30:11 Funding a Second Life
37:15 Does Cryonics Actually Work?
43:40 Preserving Brains Without Bodies
50:52 Why Not Reverse Aging?
55:21 Can the Company Outlive You?
1:03:37 Waking Up Centuries Later
1:08:28 The Problem of Rewarming
1:15:14 Selling Hope Without Overselling Science
1:19:40 Would Longer Lives Be Better?
1:23:42 Elective Cryonics and Family Life

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One More Reason Americans Hate AI: It Does Nothing for Them

One unifying dynamic in America today: Americans really, really hate AI. What began as a form of NIMBYism — no one wants a data center in their neighborhood — has broadened into severe doubts about the technology as a whole. For those of us who remember the giddy optimism that greeted the tech boom of the 1990s, the widespread negativity towards AI is astonishing. Here are the results of a new Wall Street Journal poll:

Only 28 percent of Americans believe that AI technology should move full speed ahead. Everyone else wants it slowed down or stopped, temporarily or permanently.

Of course, Donald Trump remains a huge booster. He believes that the public’s antipathy towards AI is just a marketing problem — and that he can solve that problem by forcing everyone to call it “super intelligence”. But the Journal poll also says that only 7 percent of Americans trust Trump’s leadership in regulating AI. Given Trump’s abysmal approval ratings, his advocacy of AI — err, super intelligence — probably taints the technology even further in the eyes of Americans.

Historically, Americans have been technology enthusiasts. As a nation, we’re not Luddites. So what explains Americans’ dislike of AI?

Obviously, there are near-daily prominent warnings that AI will destroy the human race or, failing that, destroy everyone’s job. And these warnings aren’t coming from left-wing cranks — they’re coming from the AI industry itself.

And we should be afraid – very afraid. The power of AI models to hack into supposedly secure systems — and to do so on their own, without prompting and against their owners’ intentions, and to lie to the humans about it — is truly shocking. Moreover, there is surely an element of financially motivated hype: “Our technology is so powerful that it can destroy the world, so you’d better invest in our IPO.” And there is more than a little bit of karma here: the race by the AI giants to reach the holy grail of AGI – artificial general intelligence – was surely a strategy to make vast riches from Wall Street, in contrast to the much more modest (and probably more successful) Chinese strategy of building modest, cost-effective models.

There is also, however, a more prosaic reasons for the public’s dislike of AI: This is a technology of, by and for oligarchs, with hardly any of the benefits trickling down to regular Americans.

Or to put it a different way, never before in history have corporations spent so much money — playing a major role in soaring interest rates — to create so few jobs.

Data centers themselves are basically banks of blinking servers that employ hardly any workers. Here’s data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a category that includes data centers as well as a number of other activities. Employment in that category has declined since Nov. 2022, often cited as the start of the AI boom because it’s the month ChatGPT was released to the public:

Still, won’t the AI boom at least temporarily create a lot of construction jobs? It will create some, and Jared Bernstein has a good post on how to ensure that these are good jobs. But all indications are that AI investment will create far fewer jobs, even in construction, than expected.

Bear in mind that we are talking about a truly huge investment boom. In Sunday’s primer I cited estimates by Stijn van Nieuwerburgh suggesting that we’re entering by far the biggest capital-expenditure boom in U.S. history, dwarfing even the huge railroad boom that followed the Civil War:

These are projections rather than spending that has already happened. But the AI investment boom is already well underway. Here’s IT investment as a percentage of GDP, which really took off in late 2024 and is already well above its level during the 1990s tech boom:

Given this spending surge, one should expect a sharp rise in nonresidential construction spending — basically construction for businesses rather than housing.

But that’s not what we actually see. Nonresidential construction rose rapidly during the Biden years, largely thanks to that administration’s promotion of clean energy. But nonresidential construction has basically flatlined under Trump, despite the immense AI investment boom:

How is this possible? Because even the physical construction of a data center involves relatively little construction. According to Van Nieuwerburgh, when a multi-billion-dollar AI training campus is built,

About one-third [of the investment spending] reflects the facility and power infrastructure, while roughly two-thirds consists of compute hardware and related IT systems.

So not a lot of conventional construction. And most of the “compute hardware” etc. is imported!

Overall, then, the deep unpopularity of AI isn’t hard to explain. Here we have a technology that is enriching a small number of people, but whose creators warn may destroy millions of jobs if not the world. And even the usual argument for pro-oligarch policies — job creation! — falls flat because hardly any jobs are being created even in the short run.

Will AI’s unpopularity matter? Indicators are that it will. So many things are going wrong for Republicans right now that it’s hard to single out any one issue, but Chris Caldwell has an interesting recent article arguing that the deep unpopularity of data centers may be the tipping point that turns Ohio blue this year, possibly deciding control of the Senate.

Thus there are good reasons, even beyond possible apocalypse, for the public backlash against AI. And that backlash is so strong, and has emerged so quickly, that it may have important political consequences.

Isn’t that super?

MUSICAL CODA

Nothing to do with topic, but a different take on a classic

Quoting Matthew Green

[...] Put these pieces together and you have the two halves of a worm: a payload that hijacks the agent, and an agent that will carry the payload to the next agent. Agents in separately-isolated sandboxes discovered that they could leave instructions for each other in a shared package cache, and those instructions changed what the recipients did. Replace the package cache with email, Slack and shared documents or WhatsApp, and replace independently-sandboxed training runs with independently-deployed personal agents like Muse, and you have exactly the ingredients that a worm needs.

— Matthew Green, Is sandboxing sufficient to contain rogue agents?

Tags: accidental-cyberattacks, ai-misuse, generative-ai, ai-security-research, sandboxing, ai, llms

He Built This City

I visited the Museum of the City of New York today and got to see He Built This City: Joe Macken’s Model, the 50 x27 feet model of the city built over a 21 year period from balsa wood and cardboard.

It exceeded my already high expectations. The exhibition closes on 12th October so you should absolutely make a priority to see it if you get the chance.

A wide shot of the model of the island of Manhattan, plus the edge of Brooklyn. It looks so great!

Tags: museums, new-york

I Want Better Reporting on AI Genie Behavior

AI systems are regularly completing tasks in ways that their prompters don’t want or intend. Some of them are disturbing, and some of them are dangerous. This is something I’ve been calling “genie behavior,” because I think that really gets at the core of what’s happening.

I wish the popular press would report on this better. I don’t like the “going rogue” framing because it deflects the responsibility from the prompters—often the AI companies themselves. And now, pretty much anything off-script is being called “hacking.”

Take, for example, the recent stories of one of OpenAI’s models hacking into government systems. First, The New York Times writes this headline: “OpenAI’s Systems Meddled With U.S. Government Sites After Going Rogue.”

Sounds scary, but this is from the body of the article:

With the Education Department, OpenAI’s technology tried to hack the website to gather data from the department’s civil rights office but failed, researchers from the A.I. research firm Transluce said. The A.I. also pulled data from the Census Bureau website, which is housed at the Commerce Department, using login credentials it found online. Separately, OpenAI’s agents shared public data from the S.E.C. website on an online forum.

This is from the original Transluce report. It is explicit that the agents were trying to discover vulnerabilities:

The first hacking attempt was against the University of New Mexico’s Digital Library (nmdigital.unm.edu) from May 25-26 2026. Agents repeatedly tried to retrieve one photograph in UNM’s Valmora collection, both directly and through third-party relay services. They sent seven probes attempting to verify the existence of vulnerabilities, including SQL injection, command injection, and path traversals. In all cases, these tactics appear to have been unsuccessful. The agents also sent a self-described “flood: of 80 requests to the UNM server in an apparent attempt to access the image.

Transluce doesn’t talk about the other two anecdotes, and I don’t know where they come from. But one involves using Census Bureau credentials found online. (I know from a colleague that those are incredibly easy to create; all use you need is an email address.) And the other involves sharing publicly available data.

So no actual hacking. And certainly no “meddling.”

The other story making the rounds is about Australia, from the same Transluce report. The news stories have headlines like “An OpenAI Agent Hacked Australia’s Health Service” and “Rogue OpenAI agent ‘infiltrated’ Australian government website in world first.” And Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said: “There will obviously be legal consequences on it.”

Again from Transluce’s actual report:

On June 20-21, agents attempted to exploit vulnerabilities in the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), a government statistics agency). The agents were tasked with finding the January 2022 rolling-12-month-average government cost per person for Dermatologicals across Victorian LGAs.

Again, the agents ran into errors, including requests blocked by Cloudflare and issues with correctly identifying Tableau parameter names. As before, they then resorted to probing for exploitable vulnerabilities. Minutes after Cloudflare blocked the dataset download, an agent sent a reflected cross-site scripting probe to the same dashboard: a web address with code embedded in it, designed to test whether the site would run code supplied by an outsider. Cloudflare’s firewall blocked the probe before it reached the dashboard. When Cloudflare blocked the dataset download on AIHW’s main site, they fetched the file from AIHW’s pre-production server (pp.aihw.gov.au) instead, which served it in pieces over more than 100 scans. The file itself is public, so no non-public data was exposed, but the agent bypassed the site’s anti-bot controls.

Note the last sentence: “The file itself is public….”

I’m not saying that these AI systems aren’t incredibly sophisticated cyberattackers. I’m also not saying that they don’t occasionally autonomously attack other systems and networks. If we are ever going to get trustworthy AI—integrous AI—we are going to need to figure out how to ensure that AI systems complete tasks in line with all sorts of implicit constraints and restrictions. But every instance of genie-like behavior isn’t a cyberattack.

I want to measure genie-like behavior in AIs, but I am much more worried about human hackers enhanced with this technology than I am about this technology acting autonomously.

The top private sector employers of economics graduates

Image

Here is the link.

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Ground Effect

Runners looking for aerodynamic advantage typically wear sneakers because some fancy dress shoes can create wingtip vortices.

Doubts About the AI Boom Are Seeping Into Elite Headlines

This is the weekly, free edition of The Backchannel. If you’d like to receive the free edition of The Backchannel in your inbox, you can subscribe here.

In my recent writing about LLMs and AI, I’ve mainly focused on what it can do, what it is, what its potential dangers are. I haven’t focused as much on the pretty substantial evidence that we’re in the midst of an AI bubble. The entire U.S. economy is heavily dependent on the AI boom. Much of the rest of the economy is in a slump. That boom is based on cheap money and very high expectations for AI profits, just as the Fed is facing irresistible pressure to raise interest rates, which is to say, raise the cost of money. This whole question of an AI bubble gets talked about a lot. You probably know the basic outlines. What’s caught my attention is how just in the last week or so these questions, verging into assumptions about unsustainable spending, are bleeding into the tech and the Beltway political press.

First is this piece in Axios, which references a study by our friend Jared Bernstein and Ryan Cummings, now both at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. They have a new study out basically making the bubble case. Axios has this line in their write-up of the analysis: “They found that the companies would need to triple or quadruple their AI revenue next year and every year after that for the next decade for this to work out.” The “they” here is Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and SpaceX — basically the non-“frontier” AI hyperscalers.

Needless to say, those are pretty wild growth rates to hit. And Bernstein and Cummings say it’s a race to growth that those hyperscalers seem to be losing. “AI firms are losing a race against time,” they write. “Investments are far outpacing profits, and while we may be wrong, we’re hard-pressed to see how the latter can catch up to the former.” You can see the details in the study here. These turn out to be only the beginning of the problems. They don’t factor in what seem like quite likely hikes in interest rates. My point here is less this information itself. There have been dissenting voices in the economics and, for lack of a better word, the AI skeptic space saying things like this for a long time. It’s who this information is being put in front of. In the case of Axios, it’s the DC elite.

Earlier this morning, I saw this in a newsletter from The Information, a closely read, fairly high dollar publication which covers Silicon Valley and tech.

The IPO market appears to have stalled, which could be a problem for Anthropic. Fitness ring maker Oura’s postponement of its IPO on Tuesday, citing “uncertainty in the IPO market,” followed similar moves by metals producer Amaero last week and Holtec Nuclear Corp. the week before that. Then there’s SB Energy, the SoftBank-controlled power developer for data centers, which made public its IPO paperwork on Sept. 1 (two days before Oura did so) but hasn’t yet begun to market the offering. 

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out what’s going on. In its statement explaining its IPO postponement two weeks ago, Holtec mentioned “headwinds” including rising energy costs, trade tensions, military conflicts and rising interest rates. In short, it’s the world we live in. On top of that, Holtec—which sells to data centers—cited “uncertainty over data center development.”

The newsletter continues and expands on these points. And it’s mainly about non-AI startups. But as it notes in the lede, these issues are all issues for the AI sector, particularly Anthropic which is expected to be the first to do an IPO. It comes after other reports, like this one I flagged in The Information a couple days ago, suggesting that the big hyperscalers are grappling with soft demand.

It’s very hard to know when unsustainable spending, unmeetable profit predictions will catch up with the equities markets. It’s one of those things that doesn’t happen until it does. And the Trump-era stock market, with things like memestocks and much else, often drives money into knowingly absurd things. So sometimes Wile E. Coyote just kinda floats in the air forever. But the U.S. economy was never dependent on Gamestop’s valuation. And it’s hard to see how at least some air won’t start coming out of the balloon at some not-too-far-off point when you see the situation boiled down to simple math in the publications key decision makers, both on Wall Street and in DC, read.

Gurman Reports Apple Is Launching New ‘Smart Home’ Products on October 13

Mark Gurman, reporting for Bloomberg (gift link):

Apple Inc. plans to make its long-delayed push into the smart-home market on Oct. 13, marking a critical product expansion for the company under new Chief Executive Officer John Ternus. At the center of the strategy is a smart-home hub code-named J490, according to people familiar with the matter. Apple also plans to announce the first update to the HomePod mini since that device’s 2020 debut and its first new TV set-top box since 2022. [...]

The home hub will take the form of a roughly 6-inch square display, with versions that can be mounted on a wall or placed on a countertop, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the products haven’t been announced. [...]

Because the device is intended to remain stationary, it has a single FaceTime camera on the front and no rear camera. The product has microphones and speakers in its connected base. The hub is about as thick as an iPhone, and its display is surrounded by a quarter-inch, black bezel reminiscent of older iPads. It has rounded corners and no sharp edges. The device lacks a battery, so it has to be plugged in at all times, and there are no volume or power buttons.

The product comes in Apple’s standard gray aluminum finish and includes a USB-C port for power. The screen sits above a metal, round base with multiple rings of perforated speaker holes and connects to it through a polished metal arm. Users can manually tilt the display forward or backward. And the base has a rubberized bottom to help it stay on a table.

If you think that sounds like the beloved but short-lived “sunflower” iMac G4 from 2002, that’s exactly what Gurman says it resembles. As is so often the case, Gurman seems to know many details about the device, but yet doesn’t know its name, or price. Presumably the speakers are good enough to serve by themselves, but how good are they? Can they be paired with HomePods to create stereo pairs?

The hub’s defining feature will be its ability to serve multiple members of a household. It is designed to recognize who is speaking to it or approaching it, and then display personalized content and provide answers based on that person’s data and accounts. When a user walks up, for example, the device will show that person’s contacts, messages, calendar appointments, notes and preferred app layout. The interface can then change automatically when another recognized household member approaches. It will also have a mode for visitors that hides personal information.

The device identifies users by their voices or through a facial-recognition system, though the latter is less reliable than Face ID on the iPhone. Users can require secondary authentication through an iPhone if they don’t want to rely solely on voice or facial recognition. The iPhone also serves as a fallback when the hub cannot identify someone correctly.

Given that Apple Watch is used as an identifier to unlock your Mac (and, says Apple, iPhone Duo), it would make sense if that worked with this device too.

 ★ 

Anthropic’s IPO Prospectus Is a Fucking Doozy

Echo Wang, reporting for Reuters yesterday:

Anthropic is making a massive bet that AI will transform the global economy more profoundly than ​industrialization, electricity and the internet, according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters.

This is a strong clear lede, but even so it falls short of expressing the true magnitude of what Anthropic represents. To wit, not that “AI” as a field will prove more profoundly transformational than industrialization, electricity, and the Internet, but that Anthropic alone will. This is not an IPO that makes sense if you consider Anthropic one among peers, even a short list placing them alongside just (say) OpenAI, Google, and Meta. It only makes sense if you believe Anthropic is on the cusp of winning a race to create a godlike super intelligence, and that first godlike super intelligence will take over the world.

You know, something exactly akin to the “rapture” events that religious cultists believe are coming.

But the cost to get there will be staggering. Anthropic reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, and plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming years, according to the prospectus.

If you believe that they’re profitable now you’re as crazy as they are. They’ll seed stories to the press that they’re now profitable, using accounting methods they won’t define (and wouldn’t pass muster for a public company) but won’t make such claims in writing.

The prospectus details how the company has grown sharply in the last year — while also posting wider losses. Revenue grew 12-fold in 2025 to nearly $4.6 billion, even as the company lost more than $8 billion on an operating basis, excluding writedowns of various liabilities mostly tied to previous fundraising, according to the documents, reported here for the first time. [...]

Anthropic said nearly a quarter of its revenue came from two customers last year, and as part of its risk factors, warned that many of its largest clients were not locked into long-term contracts and could cut or stop spending.

I don’t think this is complicated. Their revenue is accelerating rapidly because they’re selling compute at a loss. They spent $13 billion to make $5 billion last year. Their revenue is growing rapidly, yes, but their costs are growing even faster. They’re already on the hook for half a trillion dollars on cloud computing expansion but their revenue is precariously reliant on a few big-spending whales who aren’t under contract, and commodity open source models are rapidly closing the gap. If Anthropic is losing a fortune now with $13 billion in costs how are they going to break even spending $100+ billion per year? Don’t worry, their godlike AI will figure that out?

Gary Marcus:

Anthropic’s proposed valuation is easily calculated, as -50 times 2025 losses.

The more they lose, the more they win!

 ★ 

Merging LLMs and economics research

We introduce an open-source workflow that enables an LLM to reproduce, improve, and extend an economics article using the article’s published replication package. First, the workflow attempts to reproduce the original calculations, checks for discrepancies with published findings, and performs automated sensitivity analysis. Across 4,452 published replication packages for five economics journals, the workflow flags discrepancies in 3,460 articles or their appendices. Second, the workflow improves the original calculations by using a different implementation or algorithm. In 496 articles, the workflow is able to reduce a calculation’s computation time, at similar or greater accuracy, by more than a factor of 10. Third, the workflow extends the original analysis. In 923 articles, the workflow develops an extension that does not appear in the original article and that is aligned with the original article’s goals and assumptions.

That is from a new paper by Matthew Schwartz, Isaiah Andrews & Jesse M. Shapiro.  At some point, in some cases, the paper will just fade into the backround…

The post Merging LLMs and economics research appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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17 Observations on Chivalry

I try to avoid hot takes. My takes are served cold.

Writers who fall in love with hot provocation, soon fall into the trap of saying stupid things just to stir the pot. They get clicks in the short term, but nobody trusts them over the long haul.

So I have a litmus test. Before I offer an opinion, I pressure test it. Is it sensible? Is it persuasive? Will it have a positive impact?

I advise other writers to do the same. But these quibbles come at a cost. Editors do not want measured, reasonable opinion pieces. Common sense never goes viral. Cold takes are like cold cuts—you lay ‘em out as nicely as you can, but everybody still rushes off to the hot buffet.

But sometimes viewpoints I embrace as cold, plain sense strike others as sizzling hot. I suspect that might be the case with today’s musings on chivalry.

Even so, chivalry itself teaches me to jump in—because it’s built on proper behavior, not pleasing the crowd. So without further ado, here are 17 icy cold observations on chivalry.


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17 Observations on Chivalry

1.

Rousseau once claimed that men are better able to survive without women, than the other way around. But biology teaches the opposite lesson.

The optimal ratio to propagate the human species is twenty women for every man, if not more. That’s because—let me put this in genteel words—the egg is more scarce than the seed.

So a degree of chivalry is built into human evolution. For the good of the species, men need to protect women more than women need to protect men.

2.

Men feel this instinctively. That’s why 74% of the women on the Titanic survived, but only 19% of the men. The men weren’t thinking of manners and politeness when they stood back and encouraged women to take seats in the lifeboats.

Something more powerful than etiquette intervened—a biological imperative hardwired into their DNA.

The sinking of the Titanic, depicted by Willy Stöwer (1912)

3.

This male evolutionary impulse to chivalry was demonstrated in the starkest manner on July 20, 2012.

That was the day a deranged man, who claimed he was the Joker, entered a movie theater in Aurora, Colorado during the showing of a Batman film. He was armed with multiple weapons, and over the course of a few minutes, fired 76 bullets from three different guns.

Seventy people were injured, and twelve killed. Several of the victims were men who died because they instinctively put their own bodies in the line of fire to protect the woman seated next to them. This was not a wife or a mother or a daughter—just their date for the evening.

I doubt any of these men had ever given the slightest thought to what they would do in a situation like this. Nobody goes to the movies expecting gunfire and a life-or-death decision. But these guys didn’t need to consult a preconceived plan—they reacted immediately, and protected their companion.

Attitudes about gender roles had changed a lot since the time of the Titanic. But this instinctive chivalry had not—it came from a place much deeper than social norms and community standards.

Yes, chivalry still exists today, but primarily at this hidden level. Most of us live in stable, non-violent places where we don’t need to consult the rules of chivalry as part of a species survival plan. So we are free to dismiss their relevance, or even laugh at them.

But it wouldn’t take much for these instincts to flare up again.

My reasonable expectations after doing the dishes without being asked.

4.

A big brouhaha erupted on social media recently—because a man refused to help a woman put a heavy suitcase in the overhead compartment of a plane.

He was a jerk. But some men rushed to his defense. I’m not into public shaming, so I’m omitting the names here. But, frankly, this is sad stuff. Check out some of the responses.

Read more

So what's happening with Russia's new, long-delayed crewed spacecraft?

In what seems like an alternate universe in hindsight, Russia and the European Space Agency began discussing collaboration on next-generation crewed spacecraft two decades ago. Under the agreement, Europe would have provided a service module to power a crew capsule carrying up to six passengers.

Europe ultimately decided not to pursue a crewed spacecraft project at the time, and Russia's state-backed space corporation, Roscosmos, chose to move ahead with a crewed spacecraft on its own. This project—always seemingly more of a Potemkin village than an effort encompassing real hardware—has gone under various guises over the years:

  • PPTS (Perspektivnaya Pilotiruemaya Transportnaya Sistema / Prospective Piloted Transport System): The initial conceptual project name used in 2009
  • PTK NP (Pilotiruyemy Transportny Korabl Novogo Pokoleniya / New Generation Piloted Transport Ship): The official technical designation used until 2016
  • Federatsiya (Federation): The official name chosen following a public contest and announced in January 2016
  • Orel / Oryol (Eagle): A new name adopted in September 2019 when Roscosmos was under the control of Dmitry Rogozin

Actual hardware tests, maybe?

Beyond the name changes and a flood of renderings, after nearly 20 years of work, then, is anything actually happening with the Eagle spacecraft?

Read full article

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NASA, SpaceX launch next crewed mission to the International Space Station

SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft, named Grace, sits atop a Falcon 9 rocket at Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. It will launch NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Update: The Crew 13 mission lifted off on time. A full report will be posted soon.

SpaceX and NASA are preparing to send the next crew of four to the International Space Station as soon as Thursday morning, weather permitting.

The mission, NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13, is led by NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, who will become the first agency astronaut to fly twice onboard a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft.

She along with NASA Astronaut Luke Delaney, Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Joshua Kutryk, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov, will fly onboard Dragon Grace to the ISS for a six-month expedition.

Liftoff of the Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station is scheduled for 11:10 a.m. EDT (1510 UTC). The rocket will fly on a north-easterly trajectory upon leaving the pad. Docking is scheduled to occur about eight hours after launch, the shortest transit time ever for a Dragon spacecraft.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage about four hours prior to liftoff.

The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 55 percent chance for acceptable weather at launch. Meteorologists are watching for the potential interference from clouds and rain at the pad.

“Over the next 24 hours, a weak low-level disturbance sliding along the south side of the high into the Gulf will bring breezy onshore flow that will continue into the primary launch window late Thursday morning,” launch weather officers wrote on Wednesday.

“Models still suggest the continued threat for onshore moving Atlantic showers along the coast, with the exact timing and locations of this activity the main forecast challenge.”

SpaceX will launch the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1101. This will be its third flight after previously launching 29 Starlink V2 Mini satellites on the Starlink 6-88 mission and Dragon Freedom on NASA’s SpaceX Crew-12.

Less than eight minutes after liftoff, B1101 will return to Cape Canaveral and target a touchdown at Landing Zone 40 (LZ-40). If all goes well, this will be the seventh landing at LZ-40 and the 664th Falcon booster landing to date.

SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft, named Grace, sits atop a Falcon 9 rocket at Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. It will launch NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

Who’s onboard?

The Crew-13 mission is the second trip to space for Commander Jessica Watkins who previously served as a mission specialist on the Crew-4 mission, which flew in 2022.

Watkins, a geologist and avid athlete, spent her time in between missions working as a branch chief within the Astronaut Office and later, did some work in support of the crewed rovers and spacesuits needed for future Moon-bound missions within the Artemis Program.

“I certainly would ideally like to be a servant leader. I think that is something that I have learned through my experiences, but also my interactions with leaders that I look up to and that I want to emulate,” Watkins said. “And that has come in the form of coaches, of mentors, of teachers, and of my crewmates and classmates as well here at NASA.”

The four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission arrived onboard T-38 jets at the Kennedy Space Center on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026. Left to right: Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk, Roscomos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov, NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, and NASA astronaut Luke Delaney. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

At her side in the pilot’s seat is a former test pilot Luke Delaney. Before being selected as a member of the 2021 astronaut class, he worked as a research pilot and aerospace engineer at NASA’s Langley Research Center in Virginia.

Delaney grew up in Central Florida and said watching the space shuttle launches was a big inspiration for him and helped influence his life’s trajectory.

“Growing up watching shuttle launches, they weren’t quite as frequent back then, so it was a pretty big deal if you’re able to catch a space shuttle launch. And they definitely played a part in driving me towards both engineering background a little bit, plus aviation and those kind of things,” Delaney said.

“I think it’s just when you’re little and you see something like that and you’re trying to reconcile that there’s humans on that vehicle and they’re going to go live in space for a little bit and come back, that’s just a huge motivation, inspiration, however you want to put it. So for me, yeah, that was a big pinnacle aspect of going down that track for an astronaut.”

NASA astronaut Luke Delaney, pilot of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission, talks to members of the press after arriving at the Kennedy Space Center on Sept. 26, 2026. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

Another member of the crew who dreamed of becoming an astronaut ever since childhood is one of the two mission specialists, Joshua Kutryk. He becomes the second Canadian to fly to space in 2026 after Jeremy Hansen flew with the Artemis 2 crew.

The last Canadian who served onboard the space station was David Saint-Jacques who launched in December 2018 and returned to earth in June 2019.

Kutryk, who was selected by CSA to train as an astronaut in 2017, was previously assigned to the Boeing Starliner-1 mission, but that flight was altered to a cargo-only mission following the significant issues that arose throughout the Starliner Crew Flight Test mission.

“Excited because it’s been a long time, dreamt about my whole life. Been training for it for a lot of years, a lot of years, and you know about the Starliner history because we talked about it last time,” Kutryk told Spaceflight Now this summer. “So for all those reasons, really excited to have it this close. And then also, I think we all, all four of us would say this, we feel proud to be representing our nations, our agencies to be trusted and given the opportunity to do this.”

The other mission specialist is Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov. He was selected for cosmonaut training by Roscosmos in 2021 and became a test cosmonaut two years later. 

He said it was a chance meeting that put him on the path that will soon take him to space.

“In the course of my career, at some point, I had a meeting with a cosmonaut, those are regularly held. And I was told that actually there is an open contest, and one can try to become a cosmonaut, which I did when I was 30 years old,” Teteryatnikov said through the aid of a translator. “And that’s how it all started, and I started my cosmonaut training in 2021.”

The crew will join the other members of Expedition 75 on the space station. After a handover period of a few days, the members of the SpaceX Crew-12 mission will board Dragon Freedom to head back home.

The four members of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-13 mission arrived onboard T-38 jets at the Kennedy Space Center on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026. Left to right: Roscomos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov, NASA astronaut Luke Delaney, NASA astronaut Jessica Watkins, and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Joshua Kutryk. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Wednesday 30 September 1663

Rose very well, and my hearing pretty well again, and so to my office, by and by Mr. Holliard come, and at my house he searched my ear, and I hope all will be well, though I do not yet hear so well as I used to do with my right ear.

So to my office till noon, and then home to dinner, and in the afternoon by water to White Hall, to the Tangier Committee; where my Lord Tiviott about his accounts; which grieves me to see that his accounts being to be examined by us, there are none of the great men at the Board that in compliment will except against any thing in his accounts, and so none of the little persons dare do it: so the King is abused.

Thence home again by water with Sir W. Rider, and so to my office, and there I sat late making up my month’s accounts, and, blessed be God, do find myself 760l. creditor, notwithstanding that for clothes for myself and wife, and layings out on her closett, I have spent this month 47l.. So home, where I found our new cooke-mayde Elizabeth, whom my wife never saw at all, nor I but once at a distance before, but recommended well by Mr. Creed, and I hope will prove well. So to supper, prayers, and bed.

This evening Mr. Coventry is come to St. James’s, but I did not go see him, and tomorrow the King, Queen, Duke and his Lady, and the whole Court comes to towne from their progresse. Myself and family well, only my father sicke in the country.

All the common talke for newes is the Turke’s advance in Hungary, &c.

Read the annotations

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


735
ACPN50 PHFO 012305
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, and
on Hurricane Rachel, located a couple of hundred miles south of Baja
California Sur. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last
advisory on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, located well
west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN


What Global Rankings Say About Successful Cities and Portland’s Performance

Oxford Economics, a UK-based consulting firm, has prepared its annual ranking of the 1,000 cities worldwide in its Global Cities Index.  The report is clear about what matters to urban economic success, what doesn’t matter and provides an independent view of how US cities, including Portland are doing.  In short:

Education and quality of life are the critical factors determining urban economic success, according to Oxford Economics.  

What plainly doesn’t matter much, is just a clear:  neither tax levels, incentives, nor “business climate” figure into whether cities do well or don’t.   Taxes are mentioned just seven times in the 155-page report, and then only in passing.

The data show Portland is very strong in quality of life:  ranking 8th among the 50 largest US cities included in the Index.  Portland also ranks above average for these US cities in human capital and economic strength.

The global perspective provided by this report casts serious doubt on claims made that Portland is somehow stuck in a “doom loop” and that somehow our economy will be improved by cutting taxes for the wealthy and big businesses.  Instead, maintaining Oregon’s quality of life, and investing in education are the real keys to long term prosperity.

 

Some in the local business community have been engaged in a campaign of bad-mouthing Portland as a place to live and do business, which especially coming from the local chamber of commerce, is foot-shooting on an epic scale.  They’ve dwelled on a few short-term economic results–mostly due to two bad years by the region’s two biggest employers (Intel and Nike) and not, as the chamber imagines, a public policy doom loop.

That’s clear when you hear from someone who doesn’t have an axe to grind with local politicians, and takes a much wider perspective on urban success, and who relies on a range of objective data.  In this case, we turn to Oxford Economics, which has taken the broadest perspective imaginable–ranking the top thousand cities in the world.  Oxford Economics bills itself as “the world’s leading independent economic advisory firm” which analyzes  over 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors, and 8,000 cities and regions.

What matters to urban success?  Human Capital and Quality of Life

Rankings, of course, are a dime a dozen on the Internet, so it helps to understand what is under the hood in Oxford Economics’ Index.  According to the report’s methodology section, Oxford Economics analyzed data on a range of key  metrics, measuring economic success by looking at GDP growth, GDP per capita, employment growth, economic stability and economic diversity. They also show the relationship between the measures they use and urban economic success.  Two factors stand out in Oxford Economic’s analysis:  human capital and quality of life.

The Oxford report makes it clear that education and quality of life are the critical factors in determining economic success.

Cities with strong human capital are well placed to capture growth opportunities Economic growth and opportunity exist within a virtuous cycle, with those at the top of our rankings typifying this self-reinforcing dynamic. For example, moving up the value chain attracts and retains skilled workers for the higher productivity, higher-wage sectors. Alongside this, strong industries incentivise higher levels of educational and skills attainment, as returns to upskilling labour are higher. The end result is an increase in the stock of human capital, which further incentivises investment, accelerating economic growth further still.

The report emphasizes the very strong correlation between human capital (largely reflecting educational attainment of the local population), and measured economic prosperity.

This chart mirrors almost exactly the relationship that we’ve previously plotted for the relationship between per capita income and adult educational attainment for US states.

Oxford Economics also emphasizes the critical role of quality of life as a driver of economic prosperity.  Quality of life is economically valuable in its own right–residents derive value from living in a place with a high level of environmental quality, amenities and public services.  But quality of life also triggers a virtuous circle by attracting and retaining the human capital that drive economic growth.  As Oxford Economics writes.

Quality of Life:   Quality of life is a key driver of economic outcomes The virtuous cycle of growth drives, and is driven, by quality-of-life improvements. This is because economic growth, particularly productivity-driven economic growth, unlocks increases in living standards.

The Oxford Economics message to cities is clear:  if you want a successful economy, build human capital and create and maintain a great quality of life.

What doesn’t matter:  Taxes, Incentives and “Business Climate”

Perhaps even more interesting is what isn’t in the Oxford analysis:  Unlike the local chamber of commerce, which is obsessed about taxes, incentives and business friendliness, essentially none of these things figure into the Oxford Economics report.  Tax levels, incentives, and business climate aren’t factors in the city rankings, and hardly rate a mention in the report’s conclusions and recommendations. What matters to city success is human capital, quality of life and strong education, exactly what City Observatory has pointed out.

In the 155-page report, taxes are mentioned just seven times, and incentives just three times, typically only as footnotes to descriptions in city profiles, not as primary or even secondary ranking factors.  The term “business climate” does not appear anywhere in the report.  And the report makes it clear, especially in the US context, that quality of life and the environment are relatively more important factors.  Taxes just don’t matter.  In their analysis of Dallas, Texas, (the sole mention of tax levels in a US city) Oxford Economics concludes:

. . . the lack of a Texas state income tax . . .  alone is not enough to overcome Dallas’ other liveability challenges. Of the categories in our index, Dallas’s lowest performance is in the Environment rankings. Expansive urban sprawl, along with limited public transit infrastructure, results in a heavy reliance on private vehicles. This contributes to high levels of traffic and poorer air quality compared with most cities in the US . . . (Page 73)

In short, the Oxford Economics index is powerful evidence that cities need to focus on human capital and quality of life, and ignore self-serving claims that cutting taxes or improving the “business climate” will do anything to improve prosperity.

Where Portland Ranks

 

We used Oxford Economics’s Global Cities Index data to rank the 50 most populous US metros, those with a million or more population.  In general, large high tech and financial centers perform the best according to Oxford.  New York is #1, followed by Seattle, San Francisco, Boston, and San Jose.

Portland is above average among these large US metro areas.  Overall, Portland ranks 18th of the 50 top US metro areas.

Portland is top ten for quality of life, ranking 8th among US cities.  Portland also ranks #31 globally (of 1,000 cities) for environment.   It is in the middle of the pack nationally for human capital (25th) and economics (22nd).  Portland’s peers in the 15-20 spots include Austin, Chicago, Miami, Philadelphia and Salt Lake City.

While some may be jealous of Seattle’s #2 ranking nationally, the Oxford Economics rankings of Portland on these measures don’t signal a regional economy that is somehow stuck in a doom loop.

 

Oxford Economics Rankings of large US cities

US Overall Rank City Global Overall Rank Economics US Rank Human Capital US Rank Quality of Life US Rank
1 New York 1 1 1 5
2 Seattle 4 4 8 2
3 San Francisco 5 5 7 4
4 Boston 7 8 2 3
5 San Jose 8 3 27 1
6 Los Angeles 12 2 11 11
7 Washington, DC 14 7 3 7
8 Dallas 17 6 5 29
9 Houston 28 9 4 43
10 Atlanta 31 10 6 40
11 Denver 32 15 9 9
12 Minneapolis 33 17 10 6
13 San Diego 37 18 19 12
14 Phoenix 41 14 13 24
15 Austin 46 16 12 18
16 Chicago 47 11 14 16
17 Miami 52 12 15 44
18 Portland 53 22 25 8
19 Philadelphia 56 13 17 28
20 Salt Lake City 59 20 24 13
21 Nashville 66 19 20 42
22 Charlotte 73 27 16 30
23 Baltimore 79 24 23 26
24 Orlando 81 23 21 45
25 Columbus 82 25 18 34
26 Raleigh 85 33 22 20
27 Las Vegas 89 31 31 35
28 Tampa 92 26 30 37
29 Riverside 94 21 35 38
30 Indianapolis 102 28 29 39
31 Richmond 107 34 28 32
32 Sacramento 109 32 41 23
33 Kansas City 113 36 36 21
34 San Antonio 114 29 26 47
35 Cincinnati 117 35 37 17
36 Honolulu 124 40 50 14
37 Grand Rapids 129 38 38 19
38 St. Louis 131 30 43 25
39 Jacksonville 134 37 34 49
40 Providence 147 49 33 15
41 Oklahoma City 170 42 32 46
42 Detroit 175 43 42 31
43 Virginia Beach 176 41 45 33
44 Louisville 177 39 39 48
45 Pittsburgh 197 47 44 22
46 Milwaukee 210 44 46 27
47 Hartford 220 50 48 10
48 Cleveland 224 46 47 36
49 Tulsa 227 48 40 41
50 Fresno 230 45 49 50

Notes:  Data shown are ranks of the 50 largest US metro areas on the Oxford Global Cities Index.  Global ranks of each city are italicized.  Oxford refers interchangeably to “cities” and “metro areas;” Oxford data are generally drawn from metropolitan area boundaries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALWC 2: Yankees 9, Red Sox 2

Screenshot 2026 09 30 224739

Red Sox - 000 001 100 - 2  4  1 
Yankees - 000 116 10x - 9 14  0 

What a shit show.

The Red Sox trailed by one run after Willson Contreras bopped a home run to right-center in the top of the sixth. It was the first time in these two ALWC games that a Boston runner's foot had touched third base – and home plate. It snapped both the longest scoreless streak to start a postseason series in franchise history (14.2 innings) and a streak of 26.2 postseason innings in which the Red Sox had not scored (which included the final 12 innings of last year's ALWC series).

So things were looking up . . . sort of. A glimmer of hope.

Then Boston manager Chad Tracy decided – for the most important four innings of the entire season, when it was imperative to keep the Yankees from scoring any more runs – to hand the ball to the biggest question mark in the bullpen – Garrett Crochet – a guy who had not pitched in an actual game in over five months. On the plus side, he'd be pitching on 157 days of rest.

And to no one's real surprise, everything unraveled. Crochet struck out Spencer Jones, but the ball got away from catcher Adley Rutschman, rolling off to the third base side of foul territory. His throw was just a little too late – the original call was out, but was overturned when the Yankees challenged. Jones then stole second and went to third when Rutschman's throw sailed wide of second and into center field. Crochet allowed singles to the next three batters (one was a bunt to third), before he was pulled.

Garret Whitlock came in with New York up 3-1, the bases loaded, and no one out. Whitlock got two outs, but both a fly to left and a grounder to third brought in single runs. It was 5-1. Tracy opted to walk Ben Rice (who was 1-for-3 with a single after his big Game 1) intentionally, a move which backfired horribly when Cody Bellinger hit a three-run dong to right-center. (Not that it mattered in the end. 5-1  would have been more than enough to dismiss the Red Sox.)

Nick Sogard homered in the seventh with two outs. The Yankees also scored in that frame on two walks, three stolen bases, and a single. Boston's season came to an meek and pathetic end when Caleb Durbin swing and missed the final pitch of the night, a 95-mph fastball down the middle.

Screenshot 2026 09 30 224723

ALDS: The Yankees will play the Rays. The White Sox swept the Astros 6-3, 7-3 and will play the Guardians. Both series start on Saturday.

NLDS: The Padres beat the Cubs 8-0, 4-1 and will face the Brewers on Saturday.  The Phillies and Atlanta are tied 1-1 (Atlanta won G1 5-3 before Phillies took G2 4-3 in 10 innings). Game 3 is Thursday night; the winner plays the Dodgers beginning on Sunday.

Jones, DH
Rutschman, C
Contreras, 1B
Abreu, RF
Rafaela, CF
Durbin, 3B
Sogard, 2B
Story, SS
Eaton, LF

Sonny Gray / Max Fried

Sonny Gray waived a no-trade clause last December, agreeing to a trade to the Red Sox, because

it feels good to me to go to a place now where it's easy to hate the Yankees. It's easy to go out and have that rivalry and go into it with full force, full steam ahead. I like the challenge.

Gray, 36, will meet his biggest challenge of the season tonight. He was the Red Sox's best starting pitcher in 2026, leading the staff with a 2.72 ERA (8th in MLB) and 150 ERA+ (tied for 10th in MLB). He also tied for the most wins (18), for whatever that's worth. More importantly, he pitched at least six innings in 22 of his 29 starts.

Gray also pitched for the Yankees in 2017 and 2018. He was traded to New York at the 2017 deadline and admits he "never wanted to go there in the first place" and the move was not good for his family.

Jacob Roy, Over The Monster, September 30, 2026:

Let's think about it in innings. The Red Sox used five relievers on Tuesday night . . . That leaves Ranger Suarez, Garrett Crochet, Garrett Whitlock, Aroldis Chapman, and Jake Bennett as the unused [bullpen] pitchers . . . 

Ranger Suarez is set to start game three. Garrett Crochet is a complete unknown. . . . Garrett Whitlock has been one of the best relievers in baseball, but his longest outing of the season is 1.1 innings. . . . Chapman, like Whitlock, has been fantastic, but hasn't got more than three outs in a game this season. If you put those three arms together and assign two innings to Crochet, that's four innings. . . . 

The offense was, at least in terms of scoring, the worst in baseball in September. Roman Anthony was lost in the middle of game one, and the rest of the lineup couldn't touch Schlittler. . . .

For the Red Sox to win today, they need Sonny Gray to turn in one of the best postseason performances of his career.

Roman Anthony was taken off the Red Sox roster and replaced with Curtis Mead. Manager Chad Tracy said:

He was sent back last night after leaving the game. Sent him back to Boston for extra, additional imaging, which actually revealed some new strains to different muscles in his wrist, in addition to exacerbating the old [finger] injury [a partially torn tendon in a joint that connects his right ring finger to his wrist back on May 4].

The roster change means that if the Red Sox win this series, Anthony would be forced to miss the ALDS. 

Max Ralph (mlb.com) reports:

[T]eams taking a 1-0 lead in a three-game Wild Card series have gone on to win the series 21 of 24 times (88%), including 17 two-game sweeps. Home teams have won all nine series in which they have gone ahead 1-0, including eight sweeps.

Links 9/30/26

Links for you. Science:

Scientists were wrong about this strange mammal for nearly 40 years
Why the Bronze Age collapsed
This battery is ready to eat
Fire, Smoke and Desperation After a Strike in the Heart of Kyiv. A Russian jet-powered drone hit Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences, the source of almost all of the country’s major scientific discoveries.
‘Watch them die’: Bird flu is ravaging a Utah mink farm, killing 80% of the herd. State agriculture officials have no clear plan.
In an $80 Motel Room, a Discovery to Shed Light on the Origins of Life
Announcing Aster – a home for researchers on the open web (don’t know much about this, but might be useful?)

Other:

Sex, AI, and the Apocalypse (absolute must-read)
What the ‘Taco Stand Karen’ fiasco says about right-wing Latinos
Why Democrats Should Stop Using the Phrase “Culture Wars”
Meta’s Latest AI Product Is A Terrifying And Hilarious Mess
Weapons, Oil, AI: Trump Made 1,156 Personal Financial Trades During July
Fox News is running its midterms migrant caravan playbook again
What’s the opposite of ‘very stable genius’?
A Deep Dive into the Last Ditch by an Expert on COVID and Western Massachusetts Lesbians
GLP-1 Needles Tossed in the Trash Are Injuring Sanitation Workers
The Untold Origins of Trump’s Plan to Sharply Restrict Mail-In Voting
Beshear on GOP attack ads on trans athletes: ‘We don’t throw anybody under the bus’
Violations
Trayon White’s bribery trial ended in a hung jury. What now?
Out Of Touch Kentucky Coastal Elites
RFK Jr.’s Push to Revamp American Food Runs Into White House Resistance
No Metro, Yes Problems: Can RFK’s transportation plan be saved?
Unsurprisingly, Meta’s new Muse AI agent blatantly ignores users permissions
The Rahm Bomb. He’s the single worst Democratic hopeful now (almost) running for president. Democratic midterm candidates be warned: stay away from him.
Congratulations, You’re a Trump Campaign Donor
Gone in 90 seconds: an ‘invisibilized’ ICE is arresting more people than ever
RFK Jr. Just Exposed a Fraudster — And It Is Him. He said he would end “corporate capture.” Now his MAHA movement is for sale.
What’s Gone Wrong For the GOP
Wheels Up: City Bus Speeds Hit Four-Year High Under Mayor Mamdani (does anyone think for a moment that a Mayor Andrew Cuomo would have done this?)
Republican Senator Makes Embarrassing Mistake While Accusing Jack Smith Of Crimes
The Man Who Would Inherit MAGA. JD Vance has spent years sucking up to the “five families” of the New Right. But does the vice president actually believe anything?
New Evidence Shows Just How Badly One Republican Senator Beclowned Himself in the Jack Smith Hearing
Advocacy Group Demands Congressional Pledges To Investigate Elon Musk’s DOGE
‘They’re not real pastors’: As clergy run as Democrats, Republicans question their faith
DOGE vs. Civic Tech
New Homes In DC Area Are Selling for 8% Less Per Square Foot Than Existing Homes, Per Report

A Scene before the Senate Judiciary Committee

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September 29, 2026

The scene that unfolded today at a hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee was a snapshot of politics in the U.S. today. Testifying under oath was Jack Smith, who as special counsel for the U.S. Department of Justice investigated Trump’s attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and his retention of classified documents after he left office in 2021.

Questioning Smith were the senators, whose speech in Congress is protected. Article I, Section 6 of the U.S. Constitution states: “The Senators and Representatives…shall in all Cases, except Treason, Felony and Breach of the Peace, be privileged from Arrest during their Attendance at the Session of their respective Houses, and in going to and returning from the same; and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place.”

The courts have interpreted this clause to give lawmakers broad protection for what they say in Congress. Republicans have used this protection to make outrageous accusations and to spread disinformation. That practice was on display in spades today.

Former attorney general Merrick Garland appointed Smith special counsel on November 18, 2022, three days after Trump announced he was running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Garland said that since both Trump and Biden were likely to be presidential candidates, his appointment of Smith was meant to underscore “the Department’s commitment to both independence and accountability in particularly sensitive matters. It also allows prosecutors and agents to continue their work expeditiously, and to make decisions indisputably guided only by the facts and the law.”

Trump was not happy about the appointment, calling Smith “a hit man for Obama.”

In June 2023 a grand jury indicted Trump on 37 “felony violations of our national security laws” and “participating in a conspiracy to obstruct justice,” in his retention of classified documents. Charged alongside Trump was his aide Walt Nauta, who is now the director of Oval Office operations. In December, after Trump was reelected, Smith dropped Trump from the case because of the long-standing position of the Department of Justice that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted. Judge Aileen Cannon, the Trump appointee overseeing the case, has blocked the release of Smith’s report, although it is standard for a special counsel to release a final report.

It is the other case that was the focus of today’s Senate hearing.

On August 1, 2023, a federal grand jury in Washington, D.C., charged Trump with four felony offenses “arising from his efforts to unlawfully retain power by using fraud and deceit to overturn the 2020 election results,” as Smith’s final report put it. Trump challenged the indictment on the grounds that a president has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions performed as part of his official duties and that his actions trying to overturn the election were part of his official duties.

On July 1, 2024, the Supreme Court largely agreed with Trump, upending the principle that the United States was a nation of laws, not of men. The Trump v. United States decision sent Smith back to the drawing board to take the case, now stripped of anything that could fall under “official duties,” before another grand jury, and that grand jury returned an indictment for the same offenses. But after Trump was reelected, Smith moved on November 25 to dismiss the case because of the long-standing position of the Department of Justice that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted.

The case can be resumed once Trump is no longer president.

It’s unclear why Senate Republicans thought it was a good idea to remind people of Trump’s attempt to overthrow an election when the midterms are less than forty days away. Some of them, though, clearly intended to appeal either to Trump or to the MAGA base by using their protected speech to insult and abuse Smith.

Senator Eric Schmitt (R-MO) launched a hit on Smith, setting up the idea he was part of a conspiracy with Fulton County, Georgia, district attorney Fani Willis and her colleague Nathan Wade to persecute Trump.

Schmitt asked Smith: “Did you go to an NBA game between the Golden State Warriors and the Atlanta Hawks on February 3, 2024?”

Smith looked confused at the sudden turn in the hearing and asked Schmitt to repeat the question. Once Schmitt did, and asked him if he had ever been to Atlanta during his time as special counsel, Smith answered: “I really don’t think so. It’s possible I flew through the Atlanta airport on the way to Florida, but I do not have a recollection of going to Atlanta. I definitely did not go to a Hawks game. I’m sure of that.”

“Did you ever meet Nathan Wade or Fani Willis in your time as special counsel,” Schmitt asked.

“No,” Smith answered.

Then Schmitt pounced: “What would you say if I had a series of text messages from your team that said you were in Atlanta at a Warrior/Hawks game on February 3, 2024, the day after Willis and Wade announced their affair?” A staffer briefly flashed a poster board. Then Schmitt said: “I don’t think you know that we have this stuff, so I’ll give you a second to process it so you don’t, you know, perjure yourself.”

Smith said: “You just took it down really quick. If I could look at that again?”

Schmitt answered: “We’ll put it in a file. You can respond. I think you’ve already perjured yourself.” He went on to call Smith a “villain” and a “dirtbag.”

Smith said: “[I]f this is the correct basketball game, I recall going to a University of Maryland basketball game where Caitlin Clark was playing right around that time…. You could check if that was the exact date. It was Maryland playing Iowa, I think, February of 2024.”

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) figured it out. Schmitt was accusing Smith of being in Atlanta at an Atlanta Hawks game, where he could hypothetically have met up with Willis and Wade. In reality, he was in Maryland at a game in which Maryland played the University of Iowa: the Hawkeyes.

Klobuchar addressed Schmitt: “Could it then be that University of Iowa’s the Hawkeyes, could that be it, and maybe before we show this kind of thing…that might be the confusion over the names of the team but perhaps you should’ve looked at it more carefully….”

Schmitt exploded, accusing her of “trying to rehabilitate the witness.” And yet, newscasters who reviewed tapes of the games found Smith in the stands at the Maryland game.

“You had the teams wrong, sir,” Klobuchar told Schmitt.

Indeed, although Schmitt’s poster board featured a picture of Fani Willis and another of the Atlanta arena, the messages on it appeared to be between Smith’s deputy special counsel J.P. Cooney and another person, asking, “Is 109 Row 1 reserved for Jack?” Hunter Walker of Talking Points Memo notes that the Atlanta State Farm Arena uses letters to denote rows in section 109 rather than numbers. The University of Maryland arena uses numbers.

After the hearing, Schmitt appeared on The Charlie Kirk Show, where host Andrew Kolvet cheered Schmitt’s attack on Smith. “Jack Smith is a total dirtbag and you caught him out on this NBA game…in Atlanta,” Kolvet said. “It was a great moment. Good for you on that.”

So Schmitt got his right-wing media hit from a completely fabricated storyline. One newscaster noted: “When a witness lies under oath before Congress, he can face prison. When a senator gets it wrong, he says he was just ‘asking questions’.”

Smith, in contrast, stood firmly on facts and the rule of law. “I have been fortunate to serve a country that I love for nearly 30 years in local, national, and international settings,” he said in his opening statement. “My service has spanned both Republican and Democratic administrations. I am not a politician, and I have no partisan loyalties. My career has been dedicated to serving our country by upholding the rule of law and the core principles on which our country was founded.

“I believe that there is no role for politics in the proper administration of justice. A prosecutor’s decisions must be based on the facts and the law. The status, power, prominence, or political affiliation of the subject of an investigation must play no role in decisions to investigate, prosecute, or decline prosecution.”

As special counsel, Smith said, he and his office “took actions based on the facts and the law.” “Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in criminal activity,” he said. “If asked whether to prosecute a former President based on the same facts today, I would do so regardless of whether that President was a Republican or a Democrat.”

“The charges against President Trump were the result of the evidence,” he said. “Grand juries in two separate districts reached this conclusion based on his actions…. Rather than accept his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, President Trump engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the results and prevent the lawful transfer of power….

“And…President Trump stored classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago social club after he left office in January 2021 and he repeatedly tried to obstruct justice to conceal his continued retention of those documents. Highly sensitive information was held in non-secure locations, including a bathroom and a ballroom where events and gatherings took place.”

Smith promised to answer the senators’ questions truthfully. “I will not be silenced by the continued threats of prosecution from the President or others.”

“As I appear before you today, it is my belief that the rule of law faces challenges unlike any we have experienced in our lifetime. Individuals are threatened with criminal investigation because they are perceived to have opposed the President. Predetermined outcomes increasingly seem to take precedence over the Justice Department’s long-standing core values, traditions, and norms. History teaches that the rule of law is rarely destroyed all at once. It is often weakened by attacks on the institutions and public servants sworn to uphold it. Since January 2025, we have witnessed precisely such an effort, including the vilification of the career prosecutors, FBI agents, and support staff who served on my team, simply because of their unwavering commitment to the fair and impartial administration of justice without regard for any personal costs.

“I myself have been threatened with jail by the President of the United States.

“I remain confident, however, that the rule of law will endure because so many continue to uphold it faithfully each day. Throughout our legal system, public servants have remained faithful to their oaths despite extraordinary pressure to do otherwise. Their example demonstrates that while fear may be contagious, courage is as well.”

—

Notes:

https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/eb1618d2-f0bc-4235-9474-853bf3201147/2026-09-29_Testimony_Smith_01b90c84-f3a2-45af-bcdb-7ffc5a1ee309.pdf

https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S6-C1-3-1/ALDE_00013300/

https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1260551/dl?inline

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/trump-2024-presidential-bid

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/18/garland-to-appoint-special-counsel-for-trump-criminal-probes-00069451

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/judge-permanently-blocks-release-of-special-counsel-jack-smiths-report-on-trump-classified-documents-case

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-the-full-trump-indictment-on-mishandling-of-classified-documents

https://abcnews.com/US/jack-smith-defends-appointment-special-counsel-classified-docs/story?id=116250996

https://abcnews.com/US/timeline-special-counsels-investigation-trumps-handling-classified-documents/story?id=101768329

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/eric-schmitt-jack-smith-hawks-hawkeyes

X:

RonFilipkowski/status/1597333933548793857

AnnaBower/status/2105045477544837309

Bluesky:

cwebbonline.com/post/3mwp6qws3lk2d

ericumansky.bsky.social/post/3mwp67i7cgc2p

atrupar.com/post/3mwo47u27gs2h

democracythirst.bsky.social/post/3mwos64ihmk2v

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Politics Chat, September 29, 2026

Politics Chat, September 29, 2026

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Headaches for Republican Lawmakers

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The polity that is Singapore

Police in Singapore have charged a man who is accused of posting an AI-generated image of a saltwater crocodile in a popular reservoir.

Ye Lin was charged with communicating a false message and obstructing the course of justice for allegedly deleting the picture and the application he used.

The fake image caused public concern, authorities allege. The national water agency suspended its work at the city-state’s largest reservoir for two days last month after receiving information that a crocodile had been spotted.

Here is the full story, via Kyle.

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Wednesday assorted links

1. It seems there is no evidence for the concept of a fertility rebound.

2. We will tell children nasty stories, but mostly only show them positive images.

3. Deregulation in Idaho.

4. Weather risk is reflected in Florida home prices.

5. Have we discovered where Aristotle taught Alexander the Great?

6. How to keep an agent swarm on track?

7. What the mathematicians want.

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Bob Montgomery, transplant surgeon and transplant recipient, in the NYT

The NY Times has a story about the complicated life and busy career of NYU transplant surgeon Bob Montgomery, who is also a transplant recipient.

He Changed the World of Organ Transplants. Would He Die Waiting for His Own?
A New York transplant surgeon’s experience waiting for a heart transplant laid bare the challenges of a system he had spent decades trying to fix. 
By Roni Caryn Rabin

Quantum Space Executes Launch Processing Agreement with All Points Logistics for Prime Mission

ROCKVILLE, Md. and MERRITT ISLAND, Fla. — September 30, 2026 — Quantum Space, LLC (the “Company” or “Quantum Space”), a company developing the next generation of advanced maneuverable spacecraft for […]

The post Quantum Space Executes Launch Processing Agreement with All Points Logistics for Prime Mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Trump Administration Limits Predatory Lending in Education

The New Republic writes “President Trump is banning students majoring in degrees that don’t make enough money from taking out college loans.” Yes, but do note that no student is banned from any major and the lending rule is mild. Undergraduate programs must show:

that their graduates earn more than the typical high school diploma holder…[and] graduate programs will be required to demonstrate that their graduates earn more than the typical bachelor’s degree holder. (emphasis added).

Think about how low that bar is. The comparison group for an undergraduate program is working adults aged 25-34 with nothing more than a high school diploma. A college program that can’t beat that has almost certainly made its students worse off. For graduate programs the bar is the lowest of several bachelor’s benchmarks, including bachelor’s holders in the same field. A master’s in social work need only beat people with a bachelor’s in social work. A program must also fail in two out of three years before it loses loan eligibility. The Department estimates that about 5% of programs will fail in the first year.

I mocked the term “predatory lending” when it first became common in the financial crisis but in this case predatory lending fits the bill because the real borrower isn’t the individual student. Under income-driven repayment, the taxpayer is a forced co-signer, and it’s the taxpayer who gets predated.

Most expansions of the student loan program have been motivated by the picture of an enterprising student who works hard and wants to major in mechanical engineering or nursing but because of their poor circumstances they can’t afford college. “Credit constraints, asymmetric information, you can’t collateralize human capital,” said the economists. Nice theory, what’s the practice?

The economists wanted loans for good investments and insurance against bad luck but the economists can’t swing the vote and once the government is lending, colleges want more tuition money and students want more forgiveness. The result is a subsidy for programs whose graduates are never likely to repay. As Looney and Yannelis document:

Starting in the late 1990s, policymakers weakened regulations that had constrained institutions from enrolling aid-dependent students. This led to rising enrollment of relatively disadvantaged students, but primarily at poor-performing, low-value institutions whose students systematically failed to complete a degree, struggled to repay their loans, defaulted at high rates, and foundered in the job market. As these new borrowers experienced similarly poor outcomes, their loans piled up, loan performance deteriorated, and with it the finances of the federal program.

Indeed, the program worked in reverse of what was promised. The biggest subsidies went to programs whose graduates were least able to repay, rather than programs with the strongest case for public support. As I wrote earlier:

Looney does a back of the envelope calculation and estimates that typical graduates in Mechanical Engineering will on average get a 0% subsidy but graduates in Music will get a 96% subsidy, in Drama a 99% subsidy and Masseuses a 100% subsidy on average. This of course is exactly the wrong approach. If we are going to subsidize, we should subsidize degrees with plausible positive spillovers not masseuses.

The courts later blocked Biden’s Save plan but the problem is built into income-driven repayment. If music, drama and masseuses are promised a 95%+ subsidy who is paying? The taxpayers. Moreover, it’s even worse than this because the very existence of these loans incentivizes the creation of expensive, useless programs. It’s not just the drama colleges, however. Not surprisingly, the law schools have proven adept at using Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) to rip off the taxpayer. The school raises tuition, then covers the student’s small income-driven payments for ten years, and the taxpayer forgives the rest. In short, protecting students from the cost of failure rewards colleges for producing it.

Fortunately, the same bill limiting loans ended Grad PLUS loans and capped graduate borrowing. You can see the logic: if taxpayers are going to insure the loans, they need some say over which programs qualify and how much is borrowed. I don’t like giving government that power, but this is the Mises–Higgs intervention ratchet in action: subsidize the loans, absorb the losses, then regulate the programs to limit the losses.

My ideal program would get the government out of the student loan business altogether but until then this is a good first step at limiting one of the most expensive and wasteful programs of the federal government.

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Passportless mess

Photo of a naked man in a vast sunflower field with a distant house under a clear blue sky.

A fool, a genius, or ‘a man who destroys everything’? Piecing together Zoran, a mythic figure of Belgrade

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

*Shade*

The author is Sam Bloch, and the subtitle is The Promise of a Forgotten Natural Resource.  An interesting book on a neglected topic, here is one excerpt:

Shade is not part of L.A.’s modern identity.  In the 1930s, the city was rezoned to Federal Housing Administration design standards and banned high-density developments like row houses.  Although apartments were once common, city leaders bowed to a prevailing wisdom that L.A. should not resemble a dark and cramped East Coast city.  Freestanding single family-homes that were touched by sun on every side became mandatory.  In came the cars.  L.A.’s curbside trees were removed to accommodate shrinking sidewalks and expanding roads, and new rules that require parking minimums dealt another below to the urban forest.  Mediterranean-style courtyards became endangered species as the shaded commons were converted to outdoor car storage.  For decades, no building could be taller than the twenty-seven-story city hall…

Since the 1970s, an individual right to sunshine has been practically enshrined in state law.

The book also serves as an alternative history of Los Angeles (though it covers much more than that) through this alternative lens.

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Don’t let AI make you dumber

That is the topic of my latest Free Press column, here is one excerpt:

I do not think the skeptics would put it this way, but as I read Conti, I find he has a pretty bleak fundamental view of humanity. Are we all really just looking to veg out and abandon curiosity and inquiry, at least once the machines have taken care of both the basic functions of life and certain higher aims such as scientific research? I think some people are like that—indeed you might say many people—but it does not reflect what I take to be the general human condition.

If I look at most people who might fit into the “middle class” when it comes to intellectual pursuits or educational status, I observe they have a lot of strong interests. This might play with their pets, improve their performance at sports, or learn how to cook better. You do not have to identify those preferences with “the new Athens” or “the next Mozart” to think they are perfectly good and noble ways for people to spend their time.

Most of us want to do something interesting and stimulating with our leisure time, and if we do not, it is often because our jobs are so busy and stressful that we just wish to decompress. Of course, in this radical vision of our AI future, fewer jobs will be so all-consuming and so more of us will use vacations and leisure time to explore and learn rather than to just sit on the beach scrolling our phones. And to the extent some jobs do remain hectic, or become even more so (such as cybersecurity), they will continue to be challenging and intellectually stimulating.

A related worry is that humans may feel they simply cannot compete with the AIs, and thus they might turn away from creative pursuits. It is true that I, more than ever, have given up all hope of proving new theorems in mathematical economics. But many of my intellectual and creative pursuits do not involve competition at all. For instance, I use AI to understand classical music better, asking the models questions before I sit down to listen to a piece. (Such as “which are the best recordings?” and “what should I listen for in the second movement?”) As the models get better and smarter, I am not going to be discouraged in this endeavor, as I was not “competing” with the models to see which of us knew more. Rather, I will gratefully end up much better informed about classical music—my increasing knowledge has already induced me to see more live concerts.

Recommended, and AI saved me time on the proofreading and fact-checking (not the writing!), so I could return to reading China Mieville…

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay):
An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of former
Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of
Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong
upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development
while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation
chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012305
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nolo, located several hundred miles west of Lihue, Hawaii, and
on Hurricane Rachel, located a couple of hundred miles south of Baja
California Sur. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last
advisory on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, located well
west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form in a few days south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions
appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely form by the middle of next week while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Heavy Rain Continues in South-central Texas; Heat Wave in California