A bubbling Betelgeuse

Today’s Picture of the Week, taken with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), reveals one of the most detailed views yet of the surface of Betelgeuse — the famous orange star in the constellation of Orion, 600 light-years away. Unlike our own Sun, which is relatively smooth and spherical, Betelgeuse is a red supergiant almost 800 times larger, with a highly uneven, lumpy surface.

Betelgeuse’s peaks and troughs originate from the motion of giant bubbles of hot gas rising from deep within the star to its surface. The team behind these observations suggest that this large-scale movement of gas leads to these ‘hotspots’ on the star’s surface. Surprisingly, however, the brightest hotspot seen in the new observations also appears in data recorded seven years earlier, much longer than the lifetimes predicted by current models.

The persistent nature of these hotspots may be connected to the orbit of a close companion star recently suggested by observations with ESO’s Very Large Telescope. The team was motivated to study the star’s surface to see whether hotspots could be related to events such as the dramatic dimming of Betelgeuse in 2020. As a star nearing the end of its life, there's another reason Betelgeuse draws astronomers. “Its eventual fate as a supernova makes it fascinating to know what it actually looks like now,” says lead author of the study Bill Dent, an astronomer at ESO. When Betelgeuse does eventually explode, it will be bright enough to see from Earth even in broad daylight.

Link

I DJ for Rick Rubin about music and patriotism

MUSIC EPISODE: “You think you understand patriotism, you have your hands around it–it’s the simple thing, but it turns out it’s not. And maybe, music and the history of music shows us all that better than mere discourse about it.”

0:00:00 Tyler Cowen

0:00:24 Intro: Patriotism in Music

0:03:09 John Philip Sousa & Stars and Stripes Forever

0:07:38 Country Joe & the Fish: The Anti-War Song

0:16:49 Andrews Sisters & Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy

0:22:04 Liszt & Bartók: Hungarian Independence

0:36:29 Dvořák, Rossini & William Tell

0:47:24 Stockhausen, Percy Grainger & Sacred War

0:59:59 Trinidad, Congo & Brazil: Independence Songs

1:21:49 William Byrd & the Sex Pistols

1:28:00 Elgar, Charles Ives & Chuck Berry

Here is one link to the podcast itself, here is another.  Recorded in Tuscany, definitely recommended, all fresh material.

The post I DJ for Rick Rubin about music and patriotism appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

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What Lake Bonneville Left Behind

Tan and white plains surround a dark mountainous ridge in a three-dimensional image of the Silver Island Mountains.
The rugged terrain of the Silver Island Mountains and Crater Island rises above the pale playa and bright salt flats of former Lake Bonneville. The image was acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 on June 4, 2026, and overlaid on a digital elevation model.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

At its peak, ancient Lake Bonneville would have been a sight to behold. Nearly as large as Lake Michigan, the Ice Age lake spread across much of western Utah and parts of Nevada and Idaho. When it eventually receded, it left behind flat, bright playas and salt flats rich with minerals—a landscape that would later serve as the setting for feats of engineering and technological ingenuity, as well as epic tales of exploration and desperation.

Lake Bonneville began forming about 55,000 years ago during a cool, wet period, when volcanic eruptions in what’s now southeastern Idaho diverted the Bear River, causing water to gather in Gem Valley and other basins to the south. For tens of thousands of years, a natural dam at Red Rock Pass helped confine the lake.

Then, about 18,000 years ago, water breached that dam, unleashing a torrent that entered the Columbia River system. Over a six-week period, amid one of North America’s largest floods, lake levels plummeted by more than 350 feet (105 meters). As the climate warmed and dried in subsequent millennia, the lake shrank dramatically, leaving remnants that include today’s Great Salt Lake, Utah Lake, and Sevier Lake.

Lake Bonneville may be gone, but its imprint on the region’s landscape remains—even in satellite imagery. In this image (below) captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on the NASA-USGS Landsat 8 satellite, bathtub-like rings and wave-cut terraces trace the position of former shorelines. The dried lakebed—where fine-grained clay, marl, and sandy sediment settled out of the water—appears pale in comparison to the darker, rockier, more vegetated surroundings.

A nadir view shows Crater Island—a dark, linear mountain ridge in the center of the image—flanked by flat tan and white landscapes.
NASA scientists analyzed the terrain in this part of Utah when testing technologies that will be used on NASA’s DAVINCI mission to Venus. This image was acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 on June 4, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

In deep parts of the basin, where runoff and groundwater still pool, bright deposits of evaporite minerals coat the land surfaces, forming salt flats. These remarkably flat surfaces are the product of water gradually evaporating and concentrating minerals to produce brines and hard mineral crusts, typically including halite and gypsum, along with potassium- and magnesium-bearing salts. Brines and deposits like these—particularly of potash, which is used as a fertilizer—have long made the playa a target for mining, as seen in the rectangular evaporation ponds above and below.

In contrast, the darker, more rugged terrain—including the Silver Island Mountains, the Newfoundland Mountains, and the Pilot Range—that rises above the playas is built from layers of erosion-resistant sedimentary and metasedimentary bedrock that is hundreds of millions of years old. These mountains also contain younger igneous and metamorphic rocks that formed when magma intruded into the ancient sedimentary sequence.

Crater Island, for instance, is composed of sedimentary rocks, including silica-rich sandstones and quartzites that formed as sands accumulated in a shallow ocean, as well as intrusions of quartz monzonite, granites, and other igneous rocks. Periods of crustal stretching later produced the fault-block mountains that define the landscape.

Grayscale aerial image of rugged desert terrain showing branching channels, ridges, and broad textured plains with contrasting light and dark tones.
This animation shows the descent over Crater Island, Utah, of the camera system that will one day fly aboard NASA’s DAVINCI mission to Venus. It was created by stitching together 37 infrared images captured during a test on June 24, 2026.
Malin Space Science Systems/NASA/Jay Friedlander

Mapping geological distinctions like this took center stage in June 2026 when NASA scientists and engineers working with the agency’s DAVINCI mission came to Crater Island—a place they call “Venus on Earth”—to field-test the design of a set of cameras and a package of instruments that will eventually descend through the thick atmosphere of Venus and photograph mountains at scales finer than these Landsat images. During a 60-minute descent, the pioneering probe will capture near-infrared images, measure the atmospheric chemistry, and explore the environment of a world in unprecedented detail.

During the rehearsals at Crater Island, the camera system took hundreds of images of various rock formations, including iron-rich and silica-rich rock units, while suspended from a helicopter as it descended toward the surface. Using only the images acquired by DAVINCI’s camera systems, the team made three-dimensional maps of the area consistent with existing geologic maps, giving the scientists confidence that they will be able to map the geology of an analogous mountainous region on Venus that DAVINCI will study, an area called Alpha Regio.

Other epic adventures have played out on and around Lake Bonneville’s playas, as well. The flat, smooth surfaces have often been the setting for new land speed records. In 1960, Mickey Thompson became the first American to break the 400-miles-per-hour (640 kilometers-per-hour) barrier, hitting 406.60 miles per hour (654.36 kilometers per hour) in a streamlined race car on the Bonneville Salt Flats. The feat temporarily earned him the nickname “fastest man on Earth.”

Straight roads, colorful evaporation ponds, and a long racetrack are visible on bright white salt flats in a satellite image centered east of Wendover.
People mine minerals from the Bonneville Salt Flats and use its flat surface to pursue land speed records. This image was acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 on June 4, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

More recently, in August 2026, Andy Green, the first person to break the sound barrier on land, set a record for the fastest land speed in a hydrogen-fueled internal-combustion vehicle, reaching 406.320 miles per hour (653.909 kilometers per hour). By burning hydrogen rather than gasoline, the “rocket car” produced no carbon dioxide.

Nearly two centuries earlier, in August 1846, members of the ill-fated Donner-Reed Party also passed along the southern edge of Crater Island. As part of a shortcut toward Pilot Peak, they journeyed from Hastings Pass, past Floating Island, and toward Donner Spring. However, in an ominous sign of challenges to come, their heavy wagons broke through the thin salt crust and became mired in underlying mud, slowing them down and prompting them to abandon several wagons in the desert.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Adam Voiland.

References & Resources

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The post What Lake Bonneville Left Behind appeared first on NASA Science.

Major SoCal late August heatwave this week, with modest but growing possibility of tropical storm remnants affecting CA in September

Across Southwest, a mid-late summer characterized by exceptional and sustained overnight warmth Following a record warm winter across most of the American West, it has also been a record (or near-record) warm summer across most of the interior West (and fire season from the Southern Rockies to the Great Basin to the Pacific Northwest has […]

The post Major SoCal late August heatwave this week, with modest but growing possibility of tropical storm remnants affecting CA in September first appeared on Weather West.

Debt and Tax Cuts

Chart 1 Center for American Progress

Federal debt is in the news. There were many headlines last week about the debt exceeding $40 trillion and now being bigger than the economy. There were also headlines about rising interest rates on long-term debt and the showy, ineffectual attempt of Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, to manipulate them down.

Some of this is hype. Properly measured, debt is “only” $32 trillion. The comparison with GDP involves apples and oranges. And as I argued the other day, rising rates do not signal an imminent fiscal crisis.

Yet the debt is indeed very large and some concern is warranted. In the next installment of this series, I will address policy recommendations for a future Democratic administration to address the debt. I say a Democratic administration because Republicans will deny that there is a debt problem as long as they hold the White House.

But first we need to ask the question of how we got here. JD Vance says that it’s Joe Biden’s fault, because of course he does. Many others blame either reckless public spending or the fiscal burden of an aging population.

The reality, however, is that U.S. debt would be much lower as a percentage of GDP, and would barely be in the news at all, without the revenue loss from tax cuts enacted by Republican presidents: George W. Bush in the 2000s, then Donald Trump during both of his terms.

Today’s primer will examine the causes of high current U.S. debt. Beyond the paywall I will discuss the following:

1. U.S. spending, taxes and debt in historical and international perspective

2. What happened to the Clinton surplus?

3. Population aging and “entitlements”

4. Tax cuts and revenue

Read more

Anthropic’s best AI model struggles to attract users as cheaper tools thrive

Anthropic’s best AI model struggles to attract users as cheaper tools thrive

A few interesting numbers in this FT story gathered from "people with knowledge of the matter":

  • Anthropic's "annualized revenue" for July is up to $65bn - it was $47bn in May, and I collected more historic numbers here.
  • Anthropic expect Q3 to be profitable according to the same model they used to declare Q2 profitable. "It also told investors that it had 6,000 customers that spend $100,000 annually or more."
  • As for OpenAI, "annualised revenue has jumped 35 per cent in the quarter to date and is now over $40bn, with the launch of GPT 5.6 in July jolting the company’s performance after a sluggish start to the year".

This article also introduced me to the Ramp AI index, which uses billing data from 70,000 Ramp credit card using companies to estimate model adoption.

Here's Ramp's breakdown of Anthropic model spend for July 2026, which looks reasonable given that Opus 5 was only released on July 24th, and supports the idea that Fable's cost has made it a less popular model:

  1. Opus 4.8: 28.0%
  2. Sonnet 4.6: 8.3%
  3. Fable 5: 8.0%
  4. Opus 4.6: 6.9%
  5. Sonnet 5: 3.6%
  6. Opus 5: 3.5%
  7. Opus 4.7: 1.7%
  8. Sonnet 4.5: 1.3%
  9. Haiku 4.5: 1.0%
  10. Opus 4.5: 0.7%

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, claude, claude-mythos-fable

Quoting Drew Breunig

Prior to Fable, it felt silly to waste too much time improving your coding harness or context strategies. A new model would arrive at the same price (or cheaper!) and paper over most of your problems.

But then Fable landed. It was (and still is!) incredible. But the cost was so high and Opus was good enough (as was 5.6, K3, and even GLM) for most of the code we needed.

So we started to think about what work went where.

Drew Breunig, Fable & The End of the Free Lunch

Tags: drew-breunig, anthropic, claude, llm-pricing, ai, llms, generative-ai, claude-mythos-fable

Sunday 23 August 1663

(Lord’s day). Up and to church without my wife, she being all dirty, as my house is. God forgive me, I looked about to see if I could spy Pembleton, but I could not, which did please me not a little. Home to dinner, and then to walk up and down in my house with my wife, discoursing of our family matters, and I hope, after all my troubles of mind and jealousy, we shall live happily still. To church again, and so home to my wife; and with her read “Iter Boreale,” a poem, made just at the King’s coming home; but I never read it before, and now like it pretty well, but not so as it was cried up. So to supper. No pleasure or discourse with Ashwell, with whom for her neglect and unconcernment to do any thing in this time of dirt and trouble in the house, but gadding abroad as she has been all this afternoon, I know not whither. After supper to prayers and to bed, having been, by a sudden letter coming to me from Mr. Coventry, been with Sir W. Pen, to discourse with him about sending 500 soldiers into Ireland. I doubt matters do not go very right there.

Read the annotations

Links 8/23/26

Links for you. Science:

Farm mice study shows antibiotic resistance is an environmental problem, not just a medical one (paper here)
Are wasps losing their rhythm?
Mount Pleasant residents say ‘hell no’ to trees of heaven
Who’s most at risk in the cyclospora outbreak? The farmworkers on the front lines.
Yes, COVID Is Still a Thing
Scientists Recreate the Melting ‘Diamond Rain’ of Neptune and Uranus. It May Help Fusion Power
Moderna and Merck’s Cancer Vaccine Is the Advance We’ve Been Waiting For

Other:

Why Are Dead Malls a Thing?
Woke What? Let’s Be Fucking Serious (were stupid things said? Yes. But the Trump administration is the most openly racist and bigoted administration since the Wilson administration–over a century ago–and Trump himself is an adjudicated rapist. Clearly, actions regarding civil rights and sexual assault did not go far enough).
Trump’s Lust for Vengeance Is Turning Into a Farce
Natalie Harp Should Concern Everyone—I Should Know, I Once Had Her Job
ICE gloves reveal how Trump’s revenge agenda is failing
Chatbots are doing the work of Congress with little oversight. From writing speeches to sorting constituent mail, AI is spreading through Congress faster than the rules governing its use. (we’re doomed)
Los Angeles fashion district feels like a ghost town a year after the raids
Trump Administration Moves to Allow Logging in Pristine National Forests
US firms that kept DEI policies despite ‘go woke, go broke’ threats thrived
Trump Backed Away From a Wall at Big Bend. But the Bulldozers Are Here.
Academic who accused Jason Arday of plagiarism suspended by his university. Researcher Nathan Cofnas previously claimed Black people would hold few high-profile positions in a meritocracy
Long Covid Bias Cases Fight Long Odds Even Before Reaching Court
US military base schools put new emphasis on Western civilization and Christianity
Baseless Threats Won’t Stop Our Independent Research, Says CAP’s Neera Tanden (Trump is so awful, we end up rooting for CAP and Tanden…)
NCBA Statement on President Trump’s Truth Social Post (ranchers aren’t happy!)
Beatty files emergency request to stop Trump’s name from returning to Kennedy Center
Silicon Valley’s Most Dangerous Innovation
Natalie Harp Is the Unsupervised Gatekeeper to the Man with the Nuclear Buttons
Across Nashville Neighborhoods, Parked Waymos Are Recording You
Trump’s Third Term: The Constitution does not enforce itself
Stack Underflow: Losing the Craft of Coding. Software engineers are now Claude Code managers. But how can I manage what I’m forgetting how to do myself?
Whistleblower says probes into antisemitism at colleges were ploys to harass and strip millions
What’s the Value of an Hour?
Proteinmaxxing is reshaping L.A. dining — and pushing small restaurants to the brink
Coordination
Natalie Harp’s taxpayer-funded salary under fire as it’s compared to pay of USS Lincoln sailors
The Health Of Our Big Beautiful President
Jason Arday Was the Real Scholar
Seattle Times Dipshit Quits Because His Editors Were Smart Enough To Spike His Stupid Columns
Trump wildly claims hospitals are performing ‘reverse surgery’ on trans patients ’at my order’

Due to need for 'absolute success,' China delays critical Moon launch to 2027

China's "Manned Space" program issued a terse announcement on Sunday regarding its much-anticipated Chang’e 7 lunar exploration mission.

The agency stated: "In keeping with the principle of proceeding prudently and reliably, and ensuring absolute success, after a comprehensive assessment it has been determined that the Chang’e 7 mission does not meet the conditions for launch and therefore cannot be carried out during the planned launch window this year."

The Chinese message offered no explanation for the cause of the delay from the Wenchang Space Launch Site, located on an island in the South China Sea. Consisting of a lunar orbiter, lander, rover, and a mini-hopper of a probe, the mission was due to launch as early as Sunday on a Long March 5 rocket. It is intended to land at the South Pole of the Moon.

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What Did Trump Do That Made Carney Walk Away?

You’ve probably seen that Canadian PM Mark Carney has walked away from trade talks with the US. That has led the US to impose staggeringly large (and certainly illegal) tariffs on Canada and Canada is responding in kind. It’s not clear precisely what demands the US made that prompted Carney to do this. Given the pain this will cause Canada, at least in the near-term far more than the US, they must have been not only unacceptable but an affront to Canada’s sovereignty and national dignity.

As I understand it, negotiations appeared to be going well and productively. They began as an attempt to find an agreement to forestall Trump’s original threat of a new round of draconian and illegal tariffs. Indeed, they appeared to be so near completion that an article I saw mid-week referred to Mexico eyeing and looking to negotiate a deal with comparable contours. Point being, it was a measure not only of how well the negotiations appeared to be going but how close they seemed to completion. The broad outlines were known to other interested countries.

Then Carney abruptly ended them in response to new demands.

Canada is much smaller than the US, less than 1/10th the size in population and economy. The self-destruction the US is doing here is vast. But in the near term the pain for Canada is much greater. So what was this new demand? There’s simply no way this was triggered by wrangling over final details. Indeed, Carney’s public statements make this clear, despite his not sharing just what the demands were. I think it must have been demands things that genuinely compromised Canadian sovereignty. It can’t literally have been that Canada become a US state, since then any trade deal is moot. But I wonder how far from that it was. Carney referred to the demands as “unfair [and] uneconomic” and at another point said, “we were not prepared to compromise Canada’s sovereignty or undermine our key industries.”

We know from Trump’s business history that mafia-style squeezes are one of his trademarks. Specifically, he was known for introducing last minute demands that were so over-the-top and shocking that the counterparty would simply be bewildered and thrown off balance and start negotiating against themselves.

Back in early 2016 a TPM Reader who’d spent his career in the New York real estate and knew Trump and those like him described it like this …

There is a personality type with a New York developer, one Donald learned from Fred when he carried his dad’s briefcase to acquisition meetings out in the boroughs and it goes like this:

Donald contracts for a service or good, or the acquisition of a piece of land for $1 million.

He then does not pay you

You ask Donald for your million dollars

Donald yells at you, basely, abusively, wholly out of character to the rich gentleman you broke bread with and made the deal with. He tells you that no, YOU owe him $200,000. Gives you no reason but screams how can you be such a son of a bitch to rip him off, how he’s going to sue you, expose you as a cheat, etc.

You’re off your pins, defensive. How could this be the guy who was so nice when he picked up the check at Per Se?

So, you compromise, because human nature avoids conflict, right? This is what he’s gaming you for because once you compromised, you’ve lost. You’ve inferred his premise that you have some complicity in the matter otherwise why would you compromise? You are on the defensive and will never get it back.

You offer $750,000 as a settlement, angry buy want it over and done with. He then sues you. Why, because you’ve already committed yourself to the loss. You volunteered to surrender your position and what will stop you from keeping going?

I’ve seen many a New Yorker settle things like this with Trump people for 5-10 cents on the dollar and then happy, even eager to keep doing business with them. Why? Because he got in their heads with this aggressively counterintuitive behavior.

This isn’t the same as a end of negotiation ambush, as seems to have happened here. But it’s very much the same energy.

My best guess is that something like that happened at the end of last week. Because what Trump wants – particularly in the psychic space he’s been in since last fall – isn’t any particular trade deal but a burst of domination over and humiliation of the guy on the other side of the table. As we’ve discussed in other contexts in recent months, Trump is now especially craving these bursts of dominating adrenaline, which act as a kind of executive self-soothing, because of the pressure he feels over diminished power on so many other fronts.

Late Update: Carney now says that “in the last hours” the US introduced demands to restrict Canada’s ability to make trade deals with other countries.

Late Update II: Trump also apparently insisted on the inclusion of terms which would allow Trump to unilaterally impose 50% tariffs if Trump decided, unilaterally, that Canada wasn’t being nice. Obviously “being nice” wasn’t the language. But it grants the US side too much to indulge whatever the language might have since the point was at Trump’s discretion. In a way, he seemed to be insisting on the same total power which Trump claims to find in US law – and which kind of exists there but mostly doesn’t. In a way, this only formalizes Trump’s actions. He renegotiated NAFTA in his first term and then threw that out. But it certainly takes things to another level signing an agreement in which Canada binds itself to a specific trade regime and Trump (or in theory a future president) can still impose new tariffs if they feel like it.

Cooper Sharp Proves That American Cheese Can Be Great Cheese

John Moltz, in his weekly members-only column for Six Colors (no gift links, but Moltz’s column is worth the subscription in and of itself):

This week Anthropic announced that in order to identify AI from human-generated content it would be watermarking all text it generates by subtly altering the randomness at which its models picked the next word. While this might seem a perfectly cromulent means of accomplishing a worthy goal, it really rubbed John Gruber the wrong way, as if someone suggested putting autocomplete Swiss on his Philly cheesesteak AI.

Cooper Sharp cheese is the way to go. The best new cheesesteak joint in town — Uncle Gus’s — only offers Cooper Sharp, in fact.

Surely a fair number of the hundreds and hundreds of bees that have nested in Gruber’s extremely fancy bonnet are a result of the fact that this all ostensibly in response to a mandate from the EU. But, as James Thomson has suggested, Anthropic might actually want to watermark so that it doesn’t scoop up is own output to train its models, thereby degrading the results. In fact, the company would probably love to be able to figure out other companies’ watermarks and have them not be able to figure out its watermark.

For the record, my opposition to Claude’s plan to begin watermark-adulterating all generated text, worldwide, has nothing to do with it ostensibly being to comply with a regulation from the EU. I do think the EU regulation is deeply ill-considered (and, having been drafted in 2024, already technically out of date), but I’d have written everything I wrote (and will continue to write) about the matter even if the EU had no AI-related regulations in place. In fact, while writing my initial piece, I really wished this had nothing to do with the EU, because pointing out the folly of the regulation (and the ridiculousness of company supposedly worth $2 trillion being technically unable to comply with an EU regulation only within the EU itself) seemed a distraction from my point, regarding the ramifications of watermarking text by way of detectable word choices. Moltz’s aside here confirms that.

Also, more and more, I do think this has little to do with the EU regulation and everything to do with Anthropic and Google wanting to watermark the text that Claude and Gemini generate for their own purposes, to identify text to avoid training future models on to avoid model collapse/AI inbreeding. I suspect blaming the decision on the EU “Code of Practice” regulation is just scapegoating on Anthropic’s part.

(As a bonus, Moltz has a deliciously sharp (no cheese pun intended) take on the schadenfreude-rich saga of MacStories returning to Twitter/X.)

 ★ 

Sunday assorted links

1. “Underestimating something that has an AI “accent” by reflexively dismissing it as slop rhymes curiously with underestimating someone because they have a funny accent in your native language (and it isn’t one of the accents that you think signals superiority, like the BBC British accent for English).”  V. Rao.

2. Profile of Joe Lonsdale.  And from the NYT, mostly on Cicero and homelessness.

3. Graceland just isn’t that impressive.

4. Mill, Hayek, and liberalism.

5. Interview with Peter McCrory, Head Economist at Anthropic.

6. Will AI intensify or weaken market competition?

7. This economist is not a nominalist.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

The US-Canada Trainwreck and the Limits of American Power

A few more thoughts on the collapse of US-Canadian trade negotiations and the over-the-top US predation that led to it. (See my earlier post here.) Here’s a portion of an analysis piece from the Toronto Star …

Doing a deal under the conditions Carney described would clearly have undermined Canada’s pivot to new markets by putting Carney firmly under the thumb of the U.S.

As the prime minister described it, he was faced with a trade agreement that was suddenly transformed into an attack on Canadian sovereignty, an attempted psychological annexation that could have turned Canada into an American client state, a sort of North American Belarus.

It does, however, jive with Trump’s repeated 51st state taunts when he returned to the White House.

And Trump’s National Security Strategy said of America’s neighbours in the Western Hemisphere: “We want other nations to see us as their partner of first choice, and we will (through various means) discourage their collaboration with others.”

As Donald Trump not so much dismantles the US-backed global order as dynamites it, that destruction coupled with the rise of a more vocal and electorally prominent US left has renewed the discussion of just what that US-backed global order was. This passage and this whole US-Canada breakdown illustrates a lot of it.

The US has been a great power by various definitions for more than a century. It was one of two for most of the latter half of the 20th century and the sole one starting in the final decade of the 20th century.

To understand this now-receding era we must recognize the US power functioned differently with the relatively wealthy states primarily in the global north and those poorer states mainly in the south. Its power was based largely on two key alliance structures: One based in Europe (NATO) which is really the western fringe of Eurasia and another based on the littoral and island fringe of East Asia – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, et al. It was a book I read by Zbigniew Brzezinski about twenty years ago that really shaped my understanding of how these two alliance structures fit together with global geography. The US completely dominates North America by its economic, military and even geographical heft and faces no real strategic competitors in South America. So we’re free of any real foes in our whole hemisphere.

Meanwhile, these two alliance structures create counterweights to Eurasia’s two great land powers, Russia and China. One of the reasons this has been a sustainable arrangement is that it worked for both sides. The US gets things it wants. For Western Europe and littoral East Asia it provides a counterweight to the local potential dominator/bully. But, critically, that counterweight comes from a partner which isn’t too close at hand. The US is big and powerful. But they are and will always be across the sea, over the horizon.

This schema of course leaves out a huge amount of the globe. But it was a stable and mutually beneficial system and at least until quite recently covered most of the globe’s wealth, as well as real and potential military power. (It’s also no accident that most of the US’s problems, wars and blunders over the last two generations have been in another place that doesn’t fit into this schema geographically, culturally or really any other way: the Greater Middle East.) And the key to its stability is that in those two alliance structures the US didn’t ask that much. No, the US isn’t a global philanthropist bringing peace and prosperity to all. But its terms are fairly generous. In these two theaters the US has acted not as a dominator but more like a first among equals.

Critics of US power have always stumbled on this basic fact. For all the purported similarities between the US and Russian great power models, why are countries in Europe trying to stay in or enter into our imperium rather break free of it? Ukraine illustrates all of this. It’s why Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union and its security counterpart, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, have been basically a bust while the EU and NATO have grown. Yes, yes, yes, the CIA and Victoria Nuland are the secret hands and all the rest. The reality is that the proof of the pudding has been in the eating.

The basic answer on all these fronts is that the US imperium, for those who wish to call it that, is, in these two theaters, a good deal. It doesn’t ask that much. The US has operated as a first among equals, not a mob boss. The centerpiece of Trumpism is that it wants to be a dominator, especially in the regions where that’s plausible, the Americas. (It’s no accident that the Star says the Trump wants to make Canada into an American Belarus, a nominally sovereign client state.) And in the short term the US has a lot of power to do that, or at least extract big costs from countries which don’t comply. But the US was never powerful enough and certainly isn’t powerful enough now to be the dominator of Europe and littoral East Asia, and certainly not the entire globe – not without infinitely larger spending on military power. We’re already seeing the de facto limits of US military might with an adversary as comparatively feeble as Iran.

The simple fact is that for all the other evils of Trumpism they simply don’t understand the basis of American power, military or economic. That’s the basis of the absurdity of the last decade in which the US is somehow the defiant rebel against the system it created for its own prosperity and security and which has secured both for going on a century. Listen to their thinking and you see it clearly: We’re the big power. We’re in charge. But we don’t act like we’re in charge. We let ourselves get pushed around. Now we’re going to be in charge. They simply don’t understand that to the extent we are “in charge” the underlying basis of the agreement that puts us in charge. It’s the comparatively easy terms of American global power. They really do imagine that US allies are something like colonies or finlandized client states that we’ve just let get over their skis.

The truth is that this precedes Trumpism. We saw this in that pivotal eighteen months or so between the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and the invasion of Iraq in early 2003. (I actually wrote a review essay about this conversation and the books it spawned in a review essay in The New Yorker at the end of 2003.) It was less impetuous and feral. But the outlines are the same: We’re in charge. But we haven’t been acting like we’re in charge. And it’s that lackadaisical approach to managing the globe that made things like 9/11 possible. So now we’re going to actually be in charge. Again, a basic misunderstanding of the basis on which we are ‘in charge’.

In truth, though I’ve been a partisan in these debates for half my life, a lot of this was probably inevitable with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the major counterweight to American power, which shaped the ‘good’ decisions America made to put this whole system in place. A different and more fecund line of argument is whether the deal America made with its major allies drove unequal shifts in America’s domestic economy which ended up undermining the American domestic political foundations of these global alliances. That’s a complicated question. But there’s at least a there there.

I’ve talked a lot here about big think and the nature and limits of American power. I should conclude with what I hope goes without saying but still needs to be said. This breakdown in US-Canada relations isn’t just a misapprehension of the nature of American power. It’s deeply wrong, an unprovoked assault on friendly neighbors and longstanding partners with whom we share so much. As I wrote to a Canadian, discussing this this morning, this whole episode is a source of shame and embarrassment for the United States.

In Case You Missed It…

…a week of Mad Biologist posts:

The Mainland Colony of D.C., Once Again, Could Serve as a Laboratory for Wingnuts

The Abundance Bros Are Never Around When You Need Them: The Other Problem with the Proposed NIH Grant Score Reporting Format

The Scale of De-Trumpification Will Need to Be Massive–And There’s Lots of Small Stuff to Fix Too

Another Bad Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

Reasons to be cheerful discusses kidney exchange

 The magazine Reasons to be cheerful has a cheerful discussion of kidney exchange (which includes some reflections by Mike Rees on non-simultaneous chains):

The Chains of Generosity Transforming Kidney Donation
More than 90,000 people in the U.S. are on the waitlist for a kidney transplant. How many of their lives could be saved by strangers?  By: Anna Patton 

 "Momentum is building in the U.S. behind the proposed End Kidney Deaths Act, which would provide a refundable tax credit of $50,000 to those who donate a kidney to a stranger. Campaigners say this would remove financial barriers to donating, which include loss of income during testing, surgery and recovery — while saving the billions of dollars currently spent on dialysis. "

Democracy and Caeserism

In my 2015 post discussing Joseph Heath’s excellent book Enlightenment 2.0, I had this to say:

One of the reasons that I oppose the extension of democratic politics into every aspect of modern life is precisely that in trying to do too much, democracy delivers incoherence, gridlock and frustration, forces that eventually undermine its own legitimacy. I worry about democratic legitimacy because I see democracy as a check and balance on Leviathan (while Heath sees it as a check on government by experts).

The legislature has become a sideshow. But I worry, because the more Congress is held in contempt the greater the support for a bold executive that takes charge, makes decisions and gets things done. Under these pressures, executive power has grown not just in the United States but also in Canada and Great Britain (on this theme see F.H. Buckley’s The Once and Future King.) But for all its faults, the legislature and the rule of law are more conducive to liberty than the executive and the administrative state. Legislators are satisfied with reelection and a bit of pork but executives hunger for greatness and in so doing they promote the real dangers, idolatry, the centralization of power and war.

In short, I worry that the pathologies of democracy drive the demand not for rational, technocratic government but for Caesarism.

I should note that this was before Donald Trump was a Republican presidential contender, let alone a candidate for office.

Addendum: See also  my review of Enlightenment 2.0. It has some good lines!

The propagandizing messages of markets and politics are also very different. Market messages are largely inclusive and cosmopolitan. Coca-Cola advertises “I’d Like to Buy the World a Coke” because they’d like the world to buy a Coke. Firms do try to build brand affiliation but they rarely do so by promoting hatred of their competitors. Pepsi doesn’t tell the Pepsi Generation that Coke drinkers are stealing their jobs and spitting on their gods.

Hat tip: @kingofthecoastt who recently tweeted about the original post.

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August 22, 2026

On Tuesday, August 18, during a debate for a runoff to win the South Carolina Republican senatorial primary, Senator Darline Graham (R-SC) answered a question about Taiwan and the importance of the South China Sea by saying: “I’m not that informed on national security.” She paused, and added: “But I do support the military.”

The audience reacted with boos and gasps. Senators are supposed to manage national security.

Trying to clean up her mistake, Graham went to an interview with the friendly Sean Hannity at the Fox News Channel, where she tried to make a virtue of her error by saying it reflects that she is not a politician. Then she added that people in South Carolina are worried less about foreign affairs than they are about affordability, “boys in girls’ sports,” the Second Amendment, “illegal immigration,” and the SAVE America Act.

Journalist Parker Molloy noted that trans girls have been banned from competing in K–12 girls sports since 2022 and are banned from competing in the NCAA and the Olympics. “This is literally an issue that doesn’t affect SC at all anymore,” Molloy noted. “They got what they wanted. How is this still a priority?”

Graham perfectly represents the modern Republican Party. South Carolina governor Henry McMaster appointed her to fill the vacancy caused by the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham. McMaster said Trump “thought it was a great idea” for her to replace her brother, and she has indicated her loyalty to Trump and her willingness to pass the SAVE America Act he so badly wants in order to rig the 2026 midterm elections. Graham has little political experience, and with little to offer voters other than loyalty to Trump, she is simply echoing Republican culture war talking points that worked for him in 2016.

But it appears voters don’t like living in the world Trump is creating.

As Cleve R. Wootson Jr. noted yesterday in the Washington Post, Trump went to South Carolina last night to help Graham’s campaign. He told those attending the rally that the election was really about him. Although Graham’s opponent in the runoff, Representative Ralph Norman, has made much of Graham’s inexperience, Trump told rally attendees: “They’re only fighting Darline because they want me to lose.”

Wootson notes that Trump is hoping for a Graham win to restore some of the power that is slipping away as his popularity continues to slide to new lows. Primary candidates he backed for governor in Iowa, Georgia, Wyoming, and Minnesota all lost, as did those he backed in congressional primaries in Michigan and Tennessee.

Indeed, as Graham was fumbling the debate last Tuesday, two former teachers endorsed by Democrats flipped the Sarasota, Florida, school board. That board had been dominated by right-wing candidates since 2022, led by Moms for Liberty co-founder Bridget Ziegler, who has said public schools are “indoctrination centers for the radical left” and that she wanted to bring “religious values” to them.

Formed in 2021, Moms for Liberty was behind the book banning of the past several years. Ziegler is married to the former chair of the Florida Republican Party, who was forced out of his position after a woman alleged he had raped her in relation to the three-way sexual relationship she had with the Zieglers. Bridget Ziegler refused to step down from the school board after the scandal broke.

As Kerry Sheridan of WUSF reported, Beth Mayberry and Megan Tennimon ran on issues of school funding, academic achievement, and helping students in underserved areas. Both won their races by more than 10 percentage points.

As political historian Joanne Freeman put it Saturday morning in our chat on What the Heck Just Happened?, when Republican leaders in 2020 decided not to write a political platform at all, but simply to “reassert the Party’s strong support for President Donald Trump and his Administration” and to say it would “continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda,” they gave him every reason to think that “all of the things that he’s doing to promote himself—the races and the gold and everything else—that that’s all campaigning. It’s all about him.”

Then, when party leaders in 2024 essentially turned Trump’s social media posts into a platform, they embraced the idea that the party could stay in power through slogans. They promised to “DEFEAT INFLATION, AND QUICKLY BRING DOWN ALL PRICES,” to “BRING BACK THE AMERICAN DREAM AND MAKE IT AFFORDABLE AGAIN FOR FAMILIES, YOUNG PEOPLE, AND EVERYONE,” to “promote a Foreign Policy centered on the most essential American Interests, starting with protecting the American Homeland, our People, our Borders, our Great American Flag, and our Rights under God,” and so on.

The Republican Party tied itself to Trump and remains tied to him as he devotes his time to celebrating himself with his ballroom, a UFC cage match at the White House, his triumphal arch, renovations to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, and now this weekend’s “Freedom 250 Grand Prix” around the National Mall in Washington, D.C., in which 25 IndyCar drivers are covering 147 laps at speeds up to 150 mph around a 1.7-mile (2.7 km), 7-turn street circuit loop past the U.S. Capitol, the Washington Monument, the National Archives, and the National Gallery of Art.

The race has required workers to weld down more than 200 manhole covers, move traffic lights, and put up barriers that have disrupted traffic, while the National Gallery of Art has had to protect its sculptures from vibrations and airlines have had to reroute flights.

Meanwhile, the country remains embroiled in an apparently purposeless war in Iran; the economy is slowing and prices of food and gas are rising; Americans are horrified by the tactics of ICE and Border Patrol, who have abused and killed immigrants and U.S. citizens alike; Trump, his family, and his allies have put at least $2.2 billion in Trump’s pockets; and Trump has alienated our closest allies.

Just after midnight on August 21, Trump imposed a 50% tariff on a range of goods from Canada. Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney suspended trade negotiations with the U.S. and said Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. beginning September 8. In a statement, Carney said: “We have recognised from the beginning that America has changed, and that we will not return to our old relationship.” Canada, he said, will be “focused on building our strength at home [and] diversifying our partnerships abroad.”

And now the story that the closest advisor to the President of the United States is a 35-year-old woman who seems unhealthily obsessed with him ties Republican Party leadership to the reality that they are permitting the destruction of the United States with barely a whimper.

As Trump led Republicans into a box canyon, they have left an open field for Democrats to redefine the nation’s politics.

On August 17, former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg recorded a video to assure those Americans who oppose the Trump administration that they are in the large majority. He noted that the strategy Republicans are pursuing shows how unpopular they are.

“Think about it,” he said. “They’re not out there showing that the economy is somehow better than it looks…. They’re not defending their cuts to healthcare, they’re not defending the tax cuts for the wealthy. They’re not defending the corruption that’s going on in Washington.”

“It’s too late for that,” he said, because “we’ve all seen that those policies have failed. They made us all pay tariffs and said the reason we got to do this is to bring back manufacturing jobs…. Well, we paid the tariffs, and then America lost manufacturing jobs. They cut taxes for the rich. They said we’ve got to do that in order to speed up economic growth. And what happened? Economic growth slowed down…. They said they were going to cut costs and prices. Inflation is actually higher now than the day Donald Trump took office. They said they were gonna drain the swamp. And then they expect us to be okay with the first family making a billion dollars or more in crypto deals while the president’s in office….

“A lot of people believed this president and Republicans when they said no new wars. Then, what do we get? A war with Iran in the Middle East right now, which means all of us here at home are paying higher gas prices.”

The Republican strategy is not to change their policies, Buttigieg said. “It’s changing the maps. Changing the rules. Because that’s the only way they could win. They know they’re on the wrong side of the American people….

“You’re already in the majority if you think that we need healthcare for all, not Medicaid cuts and cutting Obamacare…. Right now, if you think that the wealthiest people in the country need to be paying their fair share in taxes, which is more than they’re doing today, where they currently pay less than a lot of teachers and nurses and firefighters. You are definitely in the majority if you believe that the wealthiest nation in the world ought to do the best job of funding public education and making sure it works. Not this Republican approach, which is to literally eliminate the Department of Education. You’re not alone if you think that in any decent economy, one job ought to be enough. And you’re certainly not alone if you believe that a woman’s healthcare decisions ought to be up to her and no one else, that in a free country, you should get to be who you are, and love who you love, and live a life of your choosing. When you believe these things, you’re not just not alone. You’re part of a powerful majority. Really a supermajority of the American people.

“So, whether you’re a Democrat, an independent, or someone who has generally voted Republican in the past, most voters want the same things right now: to be led and represented by normal people who are good at getting things done. People want leaders who respect those who disagree or vote differently instead of calling them the enemy. People who know that God does not belong to a political party in the United States of America. Most voters want to elect leaders who are not simply trying to rebuild the past, but trying to create something new and better.”

Notes:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6037420-darline-graham-national-security-knowledge-criticism/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/21/trump-heads-south-carolina-campaign-darline-graham/

https://floridatrident.org/florida-gop-chair-christian-ziegler-husband-of-a-moms-for-liberty-cofounder-accused-of-battery-by-alleged-menage-a-trois-lover/

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/sarasota-school-board-moms-for-liberty-00131448

https://www.wusf.org/politics-issues/2026-08-18/sarasota-primary-results-2026-two-democrat-endorsed-candidates-win-school-board-ousting-conservative-majority

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/resolution-regarding-the-republican-party-platform

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform

https://www.npr.org/2026/08/22/nx-s1-5941584/us-canada-tariffs

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/how-to-navigate-downtown-dc-during-todays-freedom-250-grand-prix/4145072/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/22/us/politics/dc-grand-prix-indycar-traffic-damage.html

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/who-is-natalie-harp-trump-aide-explained.html

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/trump-discloses-1-000-stock-trades-in-june-2e5b0773

https://apnews.com/article/lindsey-graham-dies-south-carolina-whats-next-5ba55574ce6f087d56999abe3a7f9fdc

Pete Buttigieg's Substack
Don’t Let Them Fool You: You are Not Alone
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My recent visit to Anthropic

I very recently participated in a two-day session to offer guidance on rewriting the constitution for Claude.  The small group invited was uniformly excellent, we received serious time with key decision-makers, and the discussions were of very high quality.

Some of the points I stressed were the following:

1. Whatever one might take a “constitution” to mean in this context, it needs to borrow more from analogs to case law and the common law.

2. Along related lines, think more in terms of “Talmud,” and not just in terms of “Torah.”

3. Work to help build out a quality secondary literature on the AI constitutions and related documents.  Currently this does not exist.

4. Consider how a panel of diverse AIs, with different prompts, could help to evaluate to what extent Claude (and other AI models) were acting in accord with their constitutions.

5. Have a final board of human adjudicators, functioning in a manner analogous to an independent judiciary.  To the extent the panel of diverse AIs might have concerns about Claude not following its constitution, those AIs could alert the human adjudicators to what was going on.  Those human adjudicators could then have authority over potential changes and remedies.

Here a recent short post on using internal courts and the common law to help govern/self-govern AI.  And on the courts.

I thank Anthropic for having us in.

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Recorded the night of August 12-13, Recorded the night of August 12-13,


The new agentic O-ring world

But because agents often require guidance or additional context as they move through their tasks, Sharma, 27, finds himself wanting to be available to them around the clock and forgoing a regular sleep schedule as a result. Until recently, he couldn’t monitor them remotely through a phone or smartwatch.

“The cost of the agents’ being blocked for eight hours is way too high,” he says. “They can be done with their work at any point of time, in the middle of the night.”

Founders have long put in punishing hours in the name of building the next big thing. But the growing capabilities of AI agents—and the speed at which the models powering them are evolving—give new meaning to working yourself to the bone…

“They just demand your attention,” he says. “Does it need anything? Can I help it in any way?”

…Pezaris, who lives in San Mateo, Calif., typically works from 7:30 a.m. to 2 a.m. He estimates Proxon, which employs six human developers, is operating 30 times faster than it would without agents. But agent work begets human work: Onboarding customers at a faster clip means needing to respond to more customer requests, for example.

There is also an agent FOMO multiplier effect. “Every minute that I’m not working, I’m missing out on not doing a week’s worth of work,” says Pezaris.

Here is more from Katherine Bindley at the WSJ.  As I have been joking in some of my talks, we need to start taking bets on when the AI leisure dividend will arrive.  It will, but not just yet…

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Jared Bernstein on Debt (Reposted with better transcript)

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Better transcript!

. . .

TRANSCRIPT:
Paul Krugman in Conversation with Jared Bernstein

(recorded 8/20/26)

Paul Krugman: Hi everyone. Paul Krugman talking with Jared Bernstein, former chief economist, head of the Council of Economic Advisers under Joe Biden. Now a policy fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and at the Center for American Progress, which is in DC.

Jared Bernstein: And I speak to you from Alexandria.

Krugman: Yeah, and the reason I want to talk with you is, you know, there’s a lot of headlines now about debt. Interest rates, particularly at the long end, are way up. You and I have both been Substacking about it. I think we mostly are on the same wavelength, but I’d like to go back and forth, and I want to talk about some work that you’ve done, particularly with Bobby Kogan. But what’s your take right now? I mean, we had all these headlines about forty trillion dollars of debt. This is very different from the way we were talking about debt a few years ago, so what’s your take?

Bernstein: Well, Paul, like you, for many years I was pushing back on those whose hair was on fire about the urgency of the federal debt. I thought that that overheating was overheated, and that as long as the growth rate surpassed the interest rate and we sort of kept our deficits within kind of a normal range, we could service our debt without breaking a sweat. But a few years ago, I began to become more hawkish and less dovish for a couple of reasons. One, the budget math became less favorable; the growth rate looked a lot closer to the interest rate, and that was before this recent bump up in bond yields. But also, you know, I’ve been in government a lot lately, and it looked to me like neither side really cared much at all. The reaction function, as we say these days, seemed to have been kind of dead in a way that I thought was problematic.

Now, this is not a pox on both houses. And by the way, here’s an area where you and I may have slightly different views. The Republicans’ tax cuts—and Bobby and I have done a lot of work on this—are public enemy number one here. Exhibit A, in terms of why we’re in the mess we’re in. But you know, Democrats have largely endorsed those tax cuts and, in my view, have done some irresponsible stuff, too. So that’s kind of my first take.

Krugman: Okay. You’re talking about r-g, but that’s kind of an important point, right? Why do we think about interest and growth and debt? Lots of people are out there saying, “Look, the interest on the debt is now so huge,” but that’s not quite the whole story, but it’s closer to the story. Anyway, your version of it...

Bernstein: Yeah. For me, a lot of this comes from paying attention to Olivier Blanchard‘s work. He has kind of wedged into a lot of our heads this notion that when the growth rate surpasses the rate of interest, it is possible to keep rolling over that debt and not get into a kind of debt spiral because you’re generating enough growth and revenues and incomes to sustain the debt or to roll it over. Meaning, you know, replace some old debt with new debt without worrying about the debt getting on an unsustainable trajectory. As soon as r is bigger than g, that’s when you have the threat of a debt spiral.

That’s not all the math. It depends on the size of your deficits as well. But broadly speaking, for many years we had pretty good growth and pretty low interest rates. We can talk about how that growth was distributed—a lot of it didn’t reach working-class people—but the fact that g, the growth rate, was higher than the interest rate was one reason why I was less wound up about all this.

Krugman: Yeah, one of my favorite things is talking about the question of “How did we pay off the debt from World War II?” And the answer is we didn’t. The debt when John F. Kennedy was elected was about the same as it had been on V-J Day in dollar terms, but it was just vastly smaller as a share of the economy because we outgrew it. As long as debt doesn’t rise relative to GDP, it’s not a problem. That means if the economy is growing and interest rates are not too high, not only don’t you have to pay off the debt, you can actually keep it growing as long as it just doesn’t grow too fast, right?

Bernstein: Exactly. So the problem we face is when our debt grows faster than our economy, when the debt ratio, or the debt-to-GDP, just keeps going up and up and up.

Krugman: Basically for much of the period when everybody was going on and on about debt, the arithmetic there was actually pretty favorable, right?

Bernstein: This is precisely why I kind of did a bit of a flip. I have an Op-ed in the Times—it’s from at least a year ago—where I managed to actually get them to put a graph in, which, you know, they don’t always do in there, which portrays this problem. It shows how the growth rate used to just reliably be well above the interest rate, where the economy grows faster than the debt, and so your debt-to-GDP ratio sort of glides along in a way that’s not particularly worrisome. But it looks like it’s starting to flip and starting to change.

And then if you look at the CBO forecast, they actually have the interest rate on the debt falling below the growth rate numerous years out. And their estimates actually are kind of optimistic in debt terms because they assume a number of things: they assume tariffs continue to generate a bunch of revenue, which doesn’t look to be the case; they assume that some of the Trump tax cuts would fade, but now they’re permanent. So yeah, the budget math has gotten less comfortable.

Krugman: Okay. I want to get to the interest rates in a minute, but the deficit that we’re running right now is just incredibly large. I mean, we used to run deficits to fight wars, and then we started to have big deficits when you had severe recessions. But now we have neither. I mean, there’s a war, but it’s not like World War II, right? It’s a fraction of a percent of GDP.

Bernstein: Right, but it’s not free.

Krugman: Yeah, but it’s not forty percent of GDP. It’s something like six percent of GDP now, right?

Bernstein: Exactly. It’s a little north of six percent of GDP. And according to the kind of numbers that I run on this, with the macroeconomy doing pretty well—and again, I know it’s not reaching a lot of folks; affordability concerns loom large—but you know, GDP is growing around trend, which is about two percent real. The unemployment rate is close to four percent, which is in the neighborhood of full employment. And the stock market’s booming. We should have a deficit that’s closer to three percent than six percent.

And what’s happened here, Paul—and you’ve written about this extensively—is that the constant ratcheting down of tax policy. All those tax cuts introduced by Republicans, too often kind of kept in place by Democrats, have really broken the linkage between solid economic growth and revenue flows to the Treasury. And what Bobby and I show is that if you take the Bush and the Trump tax cuts out of the mix, our fiscal scene would look fine. So, you know, that’s important.

What you can do is simulate what the debt ratio would be—by debt ratio we mean debt-to-GDP—or what the deficit would be (either one), or what the interest payments on the deficit would be. You can simulate those if you take the Bush and the Trump tax cuts out of the system, which means taking them and not just the original cuts, but all the following-on legislation that made those cuts permanent.

You know, when I say Democrats have played a role here: I was in the Obama administration when we essentially made permanent 80% of the Bush tax cuts. That’s not a hundred percent, so I’m glad that we let at least 20% at the top end revert back to what they were. But that’s the exercise we did.

Krugman: The blue line in that chart is the projection for debt on the current trajectory, and up to the point where it gets dotted, it’s the actual debt-to-GDP. And it’s really three rounds, right? It’s Bush, which were very much tax cuts for the one percent; then Trump 1, more tax cuts for the one percent; and then Trump 2, even more tax cuts, not entirely for the one percent. Where we are now is not at all where we would be if we hadn’t had all of these tax cuts.

Bernstein: Yeah, and let me say something about this. First of all, I know you do a lot of economic history, which is just really great work in my opinion, and I just don’t want our viewers to not note that that graph started back in, I think, the late 1700s. So that’s some pretty good economic history there.

Remember, those figures, including the one that showed a much lower, much more sustainable debt path, include all the spending that is in the system. The only change we’re making is the tax cuts didn’t happen. And so this is important, because there are always going to be people who say, “You know, it’s all spending,” and “It’s all taxes,” and that’s a common fight. But that figure keeps the spending precisely where CBO says it is. So that’s not a judgment on whether we have the optimal amount of spending—we can argue about things that should be cut or expanded—but those are the numbers; those are the facts.

Krugman: One of the things that strikes me about this is that often if we’re trying to understand what it would take to be able to pay for even what we have, that we would have to have something like European levels of taxation or something radically different. And actually, all we really need for that is Clinton-era levels of taxation.

Bernstein: Precisely right. Yeah, in fact, under the Clinton regime was the last time we had an annual surplus, so the debt-to-GDP was starting to come down, which is what happens when you have a surplus. Now, a lot of that had to do with a big bump in capital gains, and that led to more revenue flows. But that’s precisely the channel that I think we’ve shut down with this endless ratcheting down of tax policy.

Krugman: Yeah, it’s an amazing thing. And you and I both remember the nineties, and I didn’t feel that we were living in a regime of oppressive taxation that was stifling entrepreneurship. Those were the roaring nineties.

Bernstein: No question. The extent to which the political class, particularly Republicans, has convinced so many people and so many media writers that taxes are always bad and must always be cut is one of the reasons we’re in this mess.

Krugman: Okay. Now, clearly the deficit is so big because of, again, another round of tax cuts and the legacy of the past tax cuts. But also, the arithmetic of debt used to basically kind of melt away relative to GDP because of growth exceeding the interest rate, and that’s not the case anymore. Although the gap is not that large even now, right? It’s sort of like a four percent average interest rate on federal debt and maybe three percent nominal growth, three to three and a half. But still, it’s very different now. But the thing that is really striking is that interest rates are way higher than they were not very long ago, especially, of course, at the long end. So I’m actually not fully sure myself what I think is happening, but why do you think interest rates have gone up so much?

Bernstein: You know that old movie—I think it’s called Murder on the Orient Express—where it turned out, spoiler alert, that they were looking for one perp, but there were like 17 perps?

Krugman: Yeah.

Bernstein: I think there’s a bunch of reasons. To me, it seems credible and plausible, so I don’t feel particularly confused about what I’m seeing, though I may be missing something, but I would put at the top of the list that there are two very large demanders of credit right now in both the US and other economies as well. Those are the AI build-out and all the picks and shovels therein. Those folks are now leveraged, meaning they’re borrowing somewhere between six, seven hundred billion and a trillion this year.

Krugman: Right.

Bernstein: I’ve seen plausible estimates that they’re going to borrow a trillion dollars. By the way, a lot of those AI companies used to invest using cash flow. They weren’t leveraging; now they’re borrowing. And they’re borrowing hand over fist. A lot of investors are confident about those returns. I personally think it’s kind of bubbly, but they’re confident about those returns, so they’re certainly buying that debt.

The other big competitor is the US government, and I just mentioned maybe the AI bros will borrow a trillion this year. Well, we know that the US government’s gonna borrow twice that, a little bit north of two trillion. That’s thing one.

Cause number two, is the Trump-induced inflation concerns. So look, if you think that inflation is going to be high and sticky and you’re about to lock up some of your money for a while in a bond, you might want an inflation premium. You might want a little bit more compensation on that interest rate to account for the fact that this is all a nominal deal, and so you want to be compensated for higher expected inflation.

Then there’s the fact that Kevin Warsh has gotten off to a bit of a shaky start, and I think that’s spooking markets a bit, and that kind of uncertainty also calls for a higher risk or term premium.

And then there’s the fact that the country’s being run by an orange maniac. I think that is kind of a long-term risk premium that any investor is concerned about. Some foreign investors, who have often bought a lot of our debt, are saying, “Huh, maybe not so fast given the way this country is governed right now.” So if you put those all together, to me they tell a pretty compelling story.

Krugman: Okay. I think I mostly agree with that, except I have a couple of questions. One is that this is global, right? Interest rates are up all around the advanced world. They’re more or less moving on parallel tracks in Germany, with their famous, slightly insane fiscal discipline, and in Japan, where we used to say nothing ever seemed to matter. I mean, the AI boom is mostly here, and the orange maniac is only here. He would like to be elsewhere, but he’s only here right now. So—

Bernstein: I think he spills over into some other places, but yes.

Krugman: Yeah. So, is there kind of a common story?

Bernstein: I mean, it’s a great question, and I should have said: I don’t think anybody can explain 100% of this variance, but my R2 gets up there pretty good, I guess. I think the problem is that the fiscal accounts of other countries are looking a little bit more like ours than they used to, and that they also seem to be facing a borrowing crunch.

Japan, as you just mentioned, would make our debt-to-GDP ratio look very, very tame, because of course they’ve been north of 200%. And for years, nobody really thought that was too big a problem. But I guess because of some of the global risks—you know, we have geopolitical dynamics; when energy is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, that is a much bigger deal for Europe, for Japan, for China than it is for us. And so I would argue that the combination of geopolitical tensions and unbalanced fiscal accounts is probably pushing up long rates in other countries as well. But there’s probably more to it.

Krugman: We have a couple of financial indicators that are supposed to capture some of these risks. There’s breakevens, right?

Bernstein: Yeah.

Krugman: The US government sells bonds that are supposedly protected against inflation, and the spread between those and regular bonds should give you an indication of what Mr. Market thinks is going to happen to inflation. And that really isn’t showing anything, right?

Bernstein: Right.

Krugman: And then there are credit default swaps; insurance that will pay out if a company defaults. And there are credit default swaps on the United States government, although I always wonder a little bit what good any contract is if the US government goes into default. But anyway, those are just not flashing red at all.

Bernstein: Yeah, I can speak to that. There’s a couple of points here, one of which I think is very important that you made in your post this morning, and I’ve been trying to stress as well. I really want to make sure we get into it, which I will here.

The first point is that a second ago I said there’s an inflation premium in some of these bonds, meaning that credit investors want to have a slightly higher return because they’re worried about expected inflation. I think that’s a pretty small part of the puzzle; I think it’s more on short-term than on long-term loans. And this is clear if you look at where you really see the increase—for example, the 30-year bond is in the inflation-protected version, and that tells you that it’s not just inflation; it’s making the breakeven point a different way. And that tells you that there’s some nervousness about the long-term prospects of the US project.

The important thing that I wanted to nail here is that I think of this as much more of a slow burn than something that’s going to explode this week or next week. I don’t think the US is going to have a Liz Truss moment. I’m referring to the case in the UK where creditors engaged in what’s called a sudden stop: they looked at her fiscal plan and said, “That’s it, we’re out. We’re not going to invest in that country anymore.” I don’t think that happens here, for a variety of reasons that you and I can tick through.

But that doesn’t mean that everything’s fine and happy-dappy or we’re out of the woods. It’s more of a slow burn, this upward pressure on rates, which folds into affordability—mortgage, auto, credit card loans, and so on—that is a problem for American households and consumers. And that is less of a “what’s inflation going to be next week” story and more of a “higher for longer” problem, where rates look to me and to many others like they’re going to stay up for a while because these problems are structural.

Krugman: Yeah. There’s a lot of crisis talk, as there was, by the way, back in 2010 when there was really no problem at all. And my problem with that has always been: explain to me how that happens. You say people will go on a buyers’ strike and try to sell all of their US government debt, and my question is always, “And buy what?” I mean, it’s not like there’s an obvious place. Even for Britain, the Liz Truss moment was much more limited than people claim. And for the US as a whole, it’s not like Greece, where people were demanding euros and the Greeks couldn’t print euros. As someone said, it’s that we should be thinking about termites, not a tornado.

Bernstein: Yeah, and here’s why I think this is so important, and you and I have both been circling around this point: It’s very important for human welfare—not just American, but for human welfare—that the current thugs running the government be banished and held accountable. I’m sorry if that sounds partisan, but I don’t think it is.

And for that to happen, I don’t think candidates can run on—I remember the John Kasich platform, which is, “Vote for me and I’ll lower the debt and the deficit. We’ll all eat our spinach.” And I think that’s a mistake. I think it’s a mistake politically, and I think it’s a mistake economically. As you wrote this morning, don’t panic. I agree with that. This is a structural problem that’s not going away anytime soon, but we can chip away at it by reversing some of the high-end tax cuts, which I think would be both progressive and send a signal to markets and investors that we’re actually back in the business of having a reaction function to our unsustainable path.

But first and foremost, we have to meet the very basic, urgent needs of households that have been left behind for too long: health care, child care, housing, energy costs. That, to me, is the first demand on fiscal policy. And so I think the fact that neither you nor I see a pending sudden stop or credit crisis—we could be wrong about that, in which case we’ll have to reconfigure—but based on history, I think we still have time to get this right, and we should do both. We should walk and chew gum.

Krugman: Okay. At the risk of delaying a moment until we get to what to do, there’s one thing that kinda bothers me intellectually: during the era of low interest rates, we had a really good story—secular stagnation—basically that largely because of low birth rates and a stagnant working-age population, there was just going to be lots of savings and not enough places to spend it on. And that’s kind of what we thought had happened to Japan. And now here we are.

Just six years ago, I would have been a full-on secular stagnation guy, and now we have, whatever it is, 5.3% interest rates on the 30-year. Were we all wrong about that, or did something really radically change?

Bernstein: I think that we were over-torquing or over-indexing a bit on a period where interest rates were uniquely low, and we built a big story about secular stagnation that I sort of believed at the time. But I look back now and I think that perhaps that wasn’t as believable as we thought.

I think what might have been happening instead was we just had what Ben Bernanke called a global savings glut. We had excess savings, and there are a lot of reasons for that; it doesn’t have to be a lack of investment opportunities. A lot of it had to do with international imbalances, which you’ve written a lot about. And so these excess savings found their ways into U.S. Treasuries because it was the safest debt you could buy, and the U.S. looked like a going concern, so a lot of those resources flowed here. And that glut of savings, often coming out of Asian trade surpluses, led to rates that were really quite depressed for a long time. But as those dynamics changed, I think the savings glut is in the rearview mirror and the dynamics are more like those we’re talking about today.

Krugman: Yeah. If I can say, one intellectual trap that I fall into far more often than I should is the lure of a beautiful model that seems to fit the facts for a while. The secular stagnation model was lovely, and it all fit together, and there were the low interest rates. And then all of a sudden, it wasn’t really that solidly grounded. But the fact that a model seems to work for a while doesn’t necessarily mean—

Bernstein: Well, it may have been the right model for the time. And look, you’ve made a career and won a Nobel Prize for beautiful models, so I wouldn’t—I don’t want to wave you off of that.

But I think there’s another dynamic to this—see if this resonates with you. One of the foundational principles behind secular stagnation is the idea that there’s more savings than there are credible investments, or places to put it; there’s just an absence of investment.

Krugman: Right.

Bernstein: And by the way, when Larry Summers raised this issue of secular stagnation, Ben Bernanke stood up at the IMF conference and said, “Wait a second, there’s lots of places to invest.” I’m not sure that was exactly right at the time, but it sure is not the case now, right? And that’s the AI boom.

There’s this tremendous investment opportunity going on now. Again, I think those guys are over their skis because there’s so much more investment than there is profitability right now that I have bubble worries, and Ryan Cummings and I have written numerous pieces on this. But secular stagnation, or the absence of investment to absorb the excess savings, may have been a fact for a few years there, but as this new technology came along, as is often the case, you now have an investment absorption mechanism.

Krugman: Right. And it’s probably worth saying, just going back, that it’s not just that the hyperscalers are borrowing money when they used to not have to, but also presumably before, all of these huge profits being generated off our social media addiction were effectively being parked in places where they could then be lent out. And now, instead of pouring water into that pool, they’re drawing water out of it, and that adds to this pressure.

Okay, big question: hopefully January 20th, 2029, President—name your favorite—with majorities in both houses comes in. And aside from needing to go after all of the legacy of corruption and all of that, they’re going to come in during what looks like it’s going to be a less forgiving financial environment than we might have hoped. What do you do? What’s your agenda for how we address all this?

Bernstein: Well, first of all, from your lips to God’s ears, as we used to say. If we find ourselves in that situation, I will be partying in the streets and not worrying about the interest rate, at least for a few days.

I’m sure you’re right, and it’s an important question and an important framing of the question. I think there’s a path forward, though. First of all, we should definitely hold the Trumpies accountable and in a big way. I’ve written about that, and I think we have to Trump-proof our government because other authoritarians will come along. But if that’s all we do, we’re falling short. We really have to attack with the affordability agenda. And there, I think we should look at not just Mamdani and some of the others on the left who are making delivering the absolute key plank of their political project, but so is Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill from the center. So it’s not just a left-center thing; it’s just about rejecting the status quo and delivering to American households who’ve been not just abandoned, but abused for so long, especially under this administration.

And in terms of the context of what we’re talking about now, how do you do that if you’re in a high-rate environment and you have this budget outlook? Well, we have to reverse the high-end tax cuts. We have to close investment loopholes. We have to close the tax gap. We have to fund the IRS enforcement mechanism, because for every dollar you invest in IRS enforcement, you collect something like nine or ten dollars in taxes that are currently being evaded almost exclusively from the top of the scale. Closing the tax gap is a project that could yield five, six, seven hundred billion per year.

Krugman: Let me, by the way, explain again for listeners: “the tax gap” is a term of art. It’s not just hand-waving; it’s speaking specifically about money that people owe that we’re not collecting because the IRS doesn’t have the resources, and it’s overwhelmingly very high-income people. So you’re saying that’s like two percent of GDP.

Bernstein: I recently heard Natasha Sarin talk about this and she used, I think, that exact figure. I’m colorblind, so I’m not sure what color it was, but the chart that Bobby Kogan and I used—I think it was green—that could get us closer back to that debt-to-GDP line that’s much more sustainable. And they rest largely on applying taxes to where income and wealth have exploded at the top of the scale, so they neither hurt middle-income people nor compromise the affordability agenda.

I don’t want to be too Pollyannaish about this: a dollar spent on childcare is a dollar that’s not available for debt reduction. But what I really don’t think we should do is say we have to come in here and clean up the Republicans’ debt mess as our first priority. Anything we do that stops digging us into a deeper fiscal hole—even if we’re digging more slowly, or even better yet, stop digging, not necessarily filling—would be, I think, not only good fiscal policy, but probably welcomed by the markets as a sign that the congressional reaction function to the fiscal outlook isn’t dead.

Krugman: I regret to inform you that the good debt scenario, if we hadn’t had all of these irresponsible tax cuts, the line is orange, which is kind of an unfortunate choice given where we are in America right now.

Bernstein: Whoops.

Krugman: But anyway, I think you may have partially answered my question. When I look at that “if we hadn’t had those tax cuts” line, that would be great. If that was where we were, then I certainly wouldn’t be worrying at all about debt. But although those tax cuts were very heavily tilted to the top, with something like thirty to forty percent going to the one percent, reversing all of them would hit a number of people who at least think of themselves as middle class. And so the question is: what is within the realm of the politically possible that we can actually do?

Bernstein: Great question. And I definitely have argued and tried to stress that the right place to start and to linger is at the top of the scale. I don’t think we should raise taxes on middle-class or middle-class-adjacent people; they’re having a hard enough time already and don’t need an extra tax burden.

But the extent to which income and wealth have accumulated at the top of the scale—I’m sure you’ve seen the factor share data showing that the labor share of national income is kind of uniquely low and the profit share is uniquely high. And so I think we have to be pretty aggressive in that regard, but we can do so without dinging the middle class.

If you listen to some budget hawks, they say we have to get back to that orange line. To be clear, I’m not saying that. I don’t think we do have to get back to the orange line. By the way, Danny Yagan has some nice papers on this, saying that we can be really gradual about getting back to some version of fiscal responsibility, but we have to move in that direction. We sort of have to change the sign, even if the magnitude is tiny.

Krugman: Yeah, I think the post-World War II story is actually kind of helpful here because people talked for a long time about, “How are we going to pay the national debt? How are we gonna pay off the war debts?” And we never did. In fact, by sometime in the sixties the debt was higher in dollar terms than it had been, but the trajectory of all of the ratios was down, and we probably don’t even have to do that steep a descent, right?

Bernstein: Yeah. Some people want to say that AI is gonna save our bacon because it’s gonna generate so much growth. In the piece with Bobby, we have a section on it, and my view is kind of like: hope for the best, plan for the worst.

Krugman: Yeah.

Bernstein: I’m kind of stuck on the fact that the internet really did eventually have a strong productivity impact, and then it went away.

Krugman: Yeah, things can go into reverse, but there was only about ten years of good growth.

Bernstein: Yeah, exactly, and then we kind of got back to where we were. So a lot of the AI productivity discussion assumes that not only will AI boost the level of productivity, but it’ll just keep getting better and better and better so that it improves the growth rate. And you know, I hope that’s true, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it.

Krugman: So, what are you hoping for in the spring of 2029 as our hypothetical virtuous government comes along?

Bernstein: I am hoping for the following: I spend a fair amount of time scratching my aging noggin with the question of how much of the damage done by the Trump regime is temporary and can be quickly repaired, or is long-term and will be with us for a while.

If a good Democrat takes over and we have some legislative power, can we restore good relationships with Canada and Europe? Or are they gonna be like, “Screw you, we’ve seen what you guys do. You’re okay, but we don’t know who the next guy’s gonna be. We might be looking at President Vance around the corner.”

So I guess what I’m hoping for and looking for is that the damage can be reversed in my lifetime, which isn’t the longest span of years. And that’s an open question.

What about you? You answer that question.

Krugman: Well, okay. When you ask me about the economics—can we restore, can we even significantly reverse the drift to oligarchy—I’m actually fairly optimistic that it’s within the realm of the doable. When it comes to our international relations, when it comes to our military credibility, I don’t know. I think we’re talking about a generations-long project, and that really upsets me quite a lot.

At some level, you know, I talk about Iran or something like that and I say, “Okay, this is Trump’s failure and we should wrap it around his neck.” But in the end, it’s my country, too. And my God, we are not the country we were in the eyes of the world, and I don’t know when we ever will be again.

Bernstein: I agree with you, Paul, and I share that worry. I’ll only say the following: it may be a generational project, but if it is, it’s a great generational project, and generations should be anxious to undertake it.

Krugman: Well, on that happy note, thanks so much for talking to me.

Quoting Linus Torvalds

And this was a debug session from hell, enormously helped by an AI doing much of the grunt-work.

I'd like to call it my tireless helper, but the AI several times stated flat out that this was impossible and unsolvable and that we should just write a report about it.

I suspect those things have been trained by people who may not be quite as stubborn as I am.

But while the AI was ready to give up several times, it did keep adding debug code and analyzing it faithfully when I pushed. So credit where credit is due and I let the AI write the commit message above.

Linus Torvalds, drm/xe: Don't hand out the flat CCS storage as usable VRAM

Tags: linus-torvalds, linux, generative-ai, ai-assisted-programming, ai, llms

llm 0.33

Release: llm 0.33

My highlights from this release:

  • Upgraded to the OpenAI Python library 3.x and switched the HTTP client dependency from httpx to httpx2. #1608, #1631

I shipped a quick 0.32.1 fix for this yesterday, but this is the more comprehensive fix.

  • llm embed and llm embed-multi now accept --key. The Python EmbeddingModel.embed(), EmbeddingModel.embed_multi(), Collection.embed() and Collection.embed_multi() methods accept key= too, passing the resolved per-call key to embedding plugins without changing shared model state. Existing plugins that read self.key continue to work through a compatibility fallback. Thanks, ChrisJr404. #757, #1620

The embedding models now use the same pattern for keys that regular LLM models do.

  • llm prompt -t/--template can now be repeated to combine templates in order. This allows model configuration and options from one template to be used with a prompt from another.

This unlocks a neat pattern where you can create templates that package a model with a set of default options:

llm -m gpt-5.6-luna -o reasoning_effort high --save lhigh
llm "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle" --save pelican
# Combine and run the templates
llm -t lhigh -t pelican
  • Reasoning-capable Responses API models now support a reasoning_summary option with auto, concise, and detailed values. This can be used with llm openai endpoint --responses. #1600

This is particularly useful for exercising different models that provide their own imitation of the OpenAI Responses API.

Tags: annotated-release-notes, llm

More than just code review

The key skill required to make productive use of coding agents is being able to confidently instruct them on how to make changes and then confidently verify that those changes have been applied in the correct way.

Sometimes this involves reviewing every line of code they have written, but there are other ways to achieve that goal. Eyeballing every line of code has never been the most effective way to validate a change to a piece of software.

Tags: code-review, coding-agents, generative-ai, agentic-engineering, ai, llms

Saturday 22 August 1663

Up by four o’clock to go with Sir W. Batten to Woolwich and Sir J. Minnes, which we did, though not before 6 or 7 by their laying a-bed. Our business was to survey the new wharf building there, in order to the giving more to him that do it (Mr. Randall) than contracted for, but I see no reason for it, though it be well done, yet no better than contracted to be.

Here we eat and drank at the Clerke of the Cheques, and in taking water at the Tower gate, we drank a cup of strong water, which I did out of pure conscience to my health, and I think is not excepted by my oaths, but it is a thing I shall not do again, hoping to have no such occasion. After breakfast Mr. Castle and I walked to Greenwich, and in our way met some gypsys, who would needs tell me my fortune, and I suffered one of them, who told me many things common as others do, but bade me beware of a John and a Thomas, for they did seek to do me hurt, and that somebody should be with me this day se’nnight to borrow money of me, but I should lend him none. She got ninepence of me. And so I left them and to Greenwich and so to Deptford, where the two knights were come, and thence home by water, where I find my closet done at my office to my mind and work gone well on at home; and Ashwell gone abroad to her father, my wife having spoken plainly to her. After dinner to my office, getting my closet made clean and setting some papers in order, and so in the evening home and to bed.

This day Sir W. Batten tells me that Mr. Newburne (of whom the nickname came up among us forarse Tom Newburne) is dead of eating cowcumbers, of which, the other day, I heard another, I think Sir Nicholas Crisp’s son.

Read the annotations

Links 8/22/26

Links for you. Science:

The CDC has zombie programs. Congress funds them, but few people are left to do the work
Ticks that cause Lyme and other diseases have migrated south. Are doctors ready?
The Super El Niño Won’t Fix the West’s Water Crisis (will Trump take on Big Ag?)
GTX-GUT: A Standardized Metagenomic Workflow for Gut Microbiome Profiling and Clinical Associations
How Cyclospora Evaded the U.S. Food Safety System to Sicken Thousands
HHS’s new strategic plan for autism prioritizes interventions offered at authors’ own clinics
How the National Science Foundation is Closing the Door on Opportunity in Science

Other:

This Is How Democrats Talk Themselves Out Of Wielding Power
The Left Is Building Power. That’s Why Dems Are Slamming “Woke 1.0.” A series of electoral victories by democratic socialists and their allies is posing a challenge to establishment Democrats, and ​they’d rather attack rhetoric than debate policy. (the Trump administration is the most openly racist administration since Woodrow Wilson, and Donald Trump is an adjudicated rapist. “Woke 1.0” clearly didn’t go far enough)
Colorado Was Targeted as Trump Fumed Over Election Denier, Email Shows (impeach him. Impeach him now)
DOJ slams D.C. Council for calling for National Guard withdrawal. A Justice Department official accused council members of “ignorance” and “impotent theatrics” over their request for governors to remove their troops from D.C. (impeachment shouldn’t be just for high officials. Impeach Colin M. McDonald. Impeach him now)
Colorado GOP Gov Nominee Claims to Have Battled ‘Demons’ With ‘Reptilian’ Eyes
Disney runs out of patience with Brendan Carr’s bullsh*t
Navy weighs renaming carrier slated to honor Black war hero, potentially switching it to Trump
Facebook Is Drowning In Islamophobic AI Slop Calling for Violence Against Muslim Americans
The ‘vibe shift’ was a leveraged buyout
I Aspired To Get My PhD At Cambridge – I Left Because Of The Racism
The Painful Truth of Exactly How ICE’s New Shock Gloves Work
NC Board of Elections votes along party lines to reject most Sunday early voting hours (if voting doesn’t matter, the fascists still seem awful concerned about people voting)
Who Is a Jew? California Considers a Small Box With Big Implications.
ICE’s New Electric Shock Gloves Are Billed As “Low Optics” Tool
Silicon Valley Executives Are Tech Fans. Just Not for Their Own Kids.
Trump bought as much as $5 million in Axon stock before ICE sought $220 million Taser deal
Matt Dunlap’s campaign is openly attacking Paul LePage’s age
Ken Paxton Was Double-Booked With an Emo Band at a Houston Venue. Things Got Weird.
How the A.I. Borrowing Binge Helps Drive Up Government Bond Yields
He Cursed at a Public Meeting. Then He Was Arrested.
What Do Students Lose When They Stop Writing? Educators are worried that many students can no longer write essays without A.I. And it’s costing more than just grammar skills.
He Co-Founded Airbnb. Now He’s a Red-Pilled Billionaire Helping Trump
Gossipy Academics Helped Kill Jason Arday
Journalists as Trump’s ‘human shields’ should be the WHCA’s last straw
DHS Exempted Itself from Normal Law for Undercover Investigation Into Protesters
Subtlefakes: Slightly Altered Nonconsensual AI Images Are Taking Over X
DC celebrates 250 years with a historically poignant mural for each city ward
How close is Donald Trump to the “crazification” line? (the original crazification post here)
The broken promise of D.C.’s Commission on Poverty
Drivers would take pay cut to avoid Northern Virginia commutes

Has the European turnaround finally arrived?

Europe just had its best reporting season in years. Companies in the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index boosted earnings per share by 18% on average in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Earnings barely grew at all in 2025 and 2024 as the strongest companies in the index were offset by weaker players.

Growth is now widening beyond a narrow group of AI and bank stocks, according to Gerry Fowler, who leads the European equity strategy team at UBS. Government spending and private investment in priorities like infrastructure, energy security and defense are creating real opportunities.

The Stoxx Europe 600 is up 10% so far this year, a bit less than the S&P 500’s 12% gain. European stocks have underperformed the U.S. since the mid-2000s, but the gap has narrowed lately.

Here is more from the WSJ.

The post Has the European turnaround finally arrived? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The Best Gospel Music Happening Right Now

I’m trying to find time to write about niche genres that don’t get much notice from the music media. Many of these are flourishing creatively, but without any attention from pop culture elites.

So if you’re waiting until you read about these artists in Rolling Stone or Billboard, you will be waiting a long, long time. But The Honest Broker goes where others fear to tread. In that spirit, let me share some of the best gospel music happening right now.

Happy (and sanctified) listening!


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Listening to this first track is like getting into a time machine and traveling back a hundred years. You arrive on the outskirts of town, circa 1926, where a revival meeting is in progress.

At least that’s what I felt hearing (and seeing) the Brandenberger Family. If you love those old records by the Carter Family, but feared that style of singing had disappeared, this is the band for you.

(Full disclosure: This family also plays killer bluegrass.)


Jelly Roll has covered a lot of ground in his career, both musically and psychically. He often gets labeled as a country or rap performer, but when he recently went to San Quentin Rehabilitation Center to perform for inmates, the proceedings felt more like a ministry than a concert.

The music is riveting—this is one of the most intense and rewarding videos you will see this year. I note that Jelly Roll spent time behind bars himself. That comes across in his powerful connection with the inmates.


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Next up is Pastor Brady L. Blade, Sr.. I didn’t know anything about him, until he released his debut album at the ripe age of 85. But I’ve long admired his son Brian, who is one of the greatest living jazz drummers. There’s deep musical talent encoded in that Blade DNA.

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Dutch Regulator Fines Uber $1 Billion for Suspending Dishonest Drivers

Toby Sterling, reporting for Reuters:

The Dutch Data Protection Authority has fined Uber €825 million ($966 million) for deactivating driver accounts through automated systems without adequately informing them, according to an August 17 decision reviewed by Reuters.

The penalty would be the second-largest issued yet under Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation. It is behind only a €1.2 billion fine imposed on Meta by Ireland in 2023 for unlawfully transferring European ​Facebook users’ data to the United States. Meta is appealing.

Uber said it would also appeal. [...]

The Dutch authority confirmed the decision later on Friday. “Uber has committed ​serious infringements,” in deactivating driver accounts without warning or human involvement, the organisation’s deputy chair Monique Verdier said in a statement. “From one moment ​to the next they no longer had any income ... A computer should not make decisions on its own that have (such) major consequences.”

Saying that “a computer” made these decisions is like saying that when a company suspends or fires a habitually late employee, that “the time clock” made the decision. Managers at the company set the policies, and the devices measure employee compliance. Verdier’s statement is talking about this like it’s HAL 9000 deciding to kill the astronauts on the Discovery.

GDPR rules ban decisions made solely by computer algorithms when they have a significant impact on people’s lives, saying such decisions require meaningful human review and a way to challenge a decision.

Uber temporarily suspended accounts of some drivers who ​were suspected of fraud, including ​when its systems concluded drivers had taken unnecessary detours to inflate fares or accepted trips without intending to complete them. Uber said such suspensions were usually brief, and it did not permanently deactivate such accounts without human review. Drivers with low ​customer ratings were sometimes permanently deactivated by computer, the Dutch agency said. Uber disputed that, saying ​it had never automated permanent deactivation decisions.

The company said one reason it considers the fine disproportionate is that only a small number of drivers were affected, with 126 having been deactivated in Europe as a result of low customer ratings in 2021.

It’s possible that Reuters’s reporting is incomplete, but there’s no allegation here that the grounds for these suspensions were incorrect. Uber suspended drivers who were pulling long-haul scams against customers to run up fare prices, and doing the annoying thing where they accept a ride and then never show up, hoping the customer will eventually get frustrated and cancel the trip themselves. (My understanding is that drivers do this when they’re driving for, say, both Uber and Lyft. They’ll accept a ride from Uber and then if a more appealing offer comes from Lyft, they’ll accept that one too and just never pick up the customer they accepted from Uber.)

Per this fine, it’s unlawful in the EU for Uber to monitor its drivers for pulling scams against customers, or just never picking riders up, leaving them stranded. I mean, I’m not a member of the “Uber Labor Practices” fan club, but one of the best things about Uber compared to taxis is that they monitor for and take action against scam drivers.

This isn’t a two-sided conflict between employees (drivers) and a big corporation (Uber). It’s three-sided. Where does customer experience factor into this? The drivers were scamming customers, and Uber took action to stop it. This sounds to me like a system that works. The EU regulation doesn’t seem to factor in customers at all.

 ★ 

The Fourth Horseman of the File-Format-Hegemony Apocalypse

Microsoft’s iPhone app for OneDrive has long supported creating three new document types via a big “+” button right in its file viewer: Excel, Word, PowerPoint. It recently came to my attention that they’ve added a fourth document type, and they even gave it real Microsoft-style “they just have no taste” file icon. Just look at it. The whole world’s coming to an end, Mallory.

 ★ 

Mark Carney on the U.S. Under Trump: ‘Sometimes, Its Signature Is Written in Pencil’

Ian Austen, reporting for The New York Times (gift link):

The morning after he pulled negotiators from trade talks in Washington and set off a new round of American tariffs, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Saturday explained to Canadians why he walked away, calling the U.S. proposal “a bad deal.”

“We’ve recognized from the start that America has changed,” Mr. Carney said. “We recognize that sometimes, its signature is written in pencil.”

“We cannot accept what they offered and we will not give what they asked,” he added. “We were not prepared to compromise Canada’s sovereignty or undermine our key industries.”

If only Sharpie made pencils.

Carney is rising to the moment and showing the rest of the world how to deal with the Trump administration. Trump is erratic, emotionally unstable, ignorant, and dishonest. Carney is consistent, steadfast, knowledgeable, and honest. The only correct way to deal with a con man is to cut him off and call him out for what he is.

 ★ 

Saturday assorted links

1. New publication analyzing AI constitutions.

2. Niall Ferguson vs. Iain Banks, and against some other stufff too (TFP).

3. NYT obituary for Victor Niederhoffer.

4. “Engineered systems known as harnesses largely complete contracts in real time, make external work more observable than employment, and carry context and control across the firm’s edge.” (speculative)

5. Flypaper effect for AI safety work? A bit unfair, but not altogether wrong either.  Always ponder the possible secondary consequences!

6. Amended results on prediction markets.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Reading List 08/22/26

View of Haarlem with Bleaching Grounds, by Jacob van Ruisdael, via WikiArt.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at Los Angeles’ ADUs, electrical transformer manufacturing, gas turbine power plants, how water in the Colorado River is used, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

No essay this week, but I have a very long piece in American Affairs about why US transit construction costs are so high. You can read it here.

Housing and Cities

Los Angeles built over 10,000 ADUs in 2025, 37% of all housing units built in the county. [Smart Cities Dive]

There were 511 state bills introduced in 2025 across 40 states that pre-empted county land use authority in some way, 27% of which passed. A lot of land use restrictions are downstream of the local nature of land use authority — costs of development tend to be concentrated, and benefits tend to be diffuse, so local authorities are often incentivized to restrict development. State-level pre-emption should in theory help with this. [Smart Cities Dive]

Mexico plans on making it much harder to illicitly develop along the coast, and to tear down any illegal buildings that exist. “For years, wealthy developers have treated environmental fines as simply another line item in their budgets—a minor inconvenience easily absorbed by their profit margins. Tamborrel acknowledged this problem directly: “There are companies that allocate part of their budget to pay these fines and then continue operating; offenders prefer to pay the fine rather than request a permit.” But those days appear to be ending. Profepa has already closed four real estate developments in Puerto Vallarta and promises similar action along all of Mexico’s coastal states.” [Yucatan Magazine]

Claims (with video) that Amazon’s drone delivery service dropped a package in someone’s pool. [X]

The city of Mesa, Arizona is planning to sue several firetruck manufacturers, claiming that they’re colluding to drive up prices. [Mesa Tribune]

Manufacturing

Raytheon gets a $23 billion Navy contract for Tomahawk missiles. [Manufacturing Dive]

The New York Times has a photo essay on the laborious process of electrical transformer manufacturing. It’s not amazingly clear to me why this process isn’t more automated, and whether that would help to get them built faster or if the bottleneck lies elsewhere. [NYT]

1872 is a startup founded by several former SpaceX employees that wants to build highly automated factories for making steel parts. “The company is initially focused on automating the manufacturing of steel skids—rectangular steel frames that can provide a moveable foundation for modular buildings—with the goal of supplying customers who are developing AI data centers or small modular nuclear reactors.” [Ars Technica]

Energy

There are currently 270 GW of natural gas power plants in various stages of development in the US. This is roughly equal to 20% of all current US generation capacity. [X]

FERC approves a Southwest Power Pool (a regional transmission operator) plan to reduce grid congestion by “topology optimization” — responding to congestion by rerouting how power flows through the grid, rather than redispatching power plants. MISO, another regional transmission operator, already has such a program, and estimates that it has saved them almost $100 million so far this year. [Utility Dive]

The DOE cancels three planned National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors, designations designed to make it easier to build transmission projects. The DOE stated that transmission policy “must serve the American people, not special interests or a climate-alarmist agenda.” [Utility Dive]

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Martin Dufwenberg is celebrated at Purdue

 Purdue recognizes Martin Dufwenberg as a distinguished professor. (Here's his Google Scholar page.)

Here's the Purdue announcement:

Trustees approve named professorships and deanships, distinguished professors, appointment of new athletics director, resolutions of appreciation and namings 

 "Dufwenberg joined the faculty at Purdue in 2025 as a professor of economics. His research uses game theory and experiments to incorporate insights from psychology into economic analysis. Much of his work develops and applies a formal framework called psychological game theory, which is useful for modeling emotions, reciprocity, social norms and image concerns. His publications have appeared in many scientific outlets, including Econometrica, American Economic Review, Neuron, The Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Economic Theory, Games and Economic Behavior, and more. Dufwenberg currently serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of the Economic Science Association and Experimental Economics. His honors and awards include being named an Economic Theory Fellow as well as receiving an honorary doctorate at the University of Gothenburg, the Erik Malmsten Visiting Professorship Award, the Royal Economic Society Prize and more. "

The End of Friday Nights with Friends

This study examines how Americans’ time with friends has changed over the week, focusing not on how much social interaction has declined but on when it has. Using American Time Use Survey data from 2003 to 2024 (N = 243,095), I map hourly patterns of “friend time” across the days of the week. In the early 2000s, social life followed a clear weekly rhythm: Modest weekday interaction built toward pronounced peaks on Friday and Saturday nights. Since the mid-2010s, that rhythm has collapsed. Friday night, once a central site of social activity, now looks like a typical weeknight. Saturday remains elevated but less so than before. Overall, time with friends has fallen by more than half. The mix of social activities, however, has remained stable. Americans have not replaced one form of interaction with another; they have reduced social interaction across the board. These findings point to a temporal reorganization of social life marked by the disappearance of the “night out.”

That is by Neal Caren, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.  So what did you go last evening?

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August 21, 2026

On August 21, 1831, Nat Turner, an enslaved American, led about 70 of his enslaved and free Black neighbors in a rebellion to awaken his white neighbors to the inherent brutality of slaveholding and the dangers it presented to their own safety. Turner and his friends traveled from house to house in their neighborhood in Southampton County, Virginia, freeing enslaved people and murdering about 60 of the white men, women, and children they encountered. Their goal, Turner later told an interviewer, was “to carry terror and devastation wherever we went.”

State militia put down the rebellion in a couple of days, and both the legal system and white vigilantes killed at least 200 Black Virginians, many of whom were not involved in Turner’s bid to end enslavement. Turner himself was captured in October, tried in November, sentenced to death, and hanged.

But white Virginians, and white folks in neighboring southern states, remained frightened. Turner had been, in their minds, a well-treated, educated enslaved man, who knew his Bible well and seemed the very last sort of person they would have expected to revolt. And so they responded to the rebellion in two ways. They turned against the idea that enslavement was a bad thing, and instead began to argue that human enslavement was a positive good.

And states across the South passed laws making it a crime to teach enslaved Americans to read and write.

Denying enslaved Black Americans access to education exiled them from a place in the nation. The Framers had quite explicitly organized the United States not on the principles of religion or tradition, but rather on the principles of the Enlightenment: the idea that, by applying knowledge and reasoning to the natural world, men could figure out the best way to order society. Someone excluded from access to education could not participate in that national project. Instead, that person was read out of society, doomed to be controlled by leaders who marshaled religion and propaganda to defend their dominance.

In 1858, Senator James Henry Hammond of South Carolina explained that society needed “a class to do the menial duties, to perform the drudgery of life. That is, a class requiring but a low order of intellect and but little skill.”

But when they organized in the 1850s to push back against the efforts of elite enslavers like Hammond to take over the national government, members of the fledgling Republican Party recognized the importance of education. In 1859, Illinois lawyer Abraham Lincoln explained that those who adhered to Hammond’s “mud-sill” theory “assumed that labor and education are incompatible; and any practical combination of them impossible…. According to that theory, the education of laborers, is not only useless, but pernicious, and dangerous.”

Lincoln argued that workers were not simply drudges but rather were the heart of the economy. “The prudent, penniless beginner in the world, labors for wages awhile, saves a surplus with which to buy tools or land, for himself; then labors on his own account another while, and at length hires another new beginner to help him.” He tied the political vision of the Framers to this economic vision. In order to prosper, he argued, men needed “book-learning,” and he called for universal education. An educated community, he said, “will be alike independent of crowned-kings, money-kings, and land-kings.”

When they were in control of the federal government in the 1860s, Republicans passed the Land Grant College Act, funding public universities so that men without wealthy fathers might have access to higher education. In the aftermath of the Civil War, Republicans also tried to use the federal government to fund public schools for poor Black and white Americans, apportioning money according to illiteracy rates.

But President Andrew Johnson vetoed that bill on the grounds that the federal government had no business messing with education: that process, he said, belonged to the states—which for the next century denied Black people equal access to schools, excluding them from full participation in American society and condemning them to menial labor.

Then, in 1954, after decades of pressure from Black and Brown Americans for equal access to public schools, the Supreme Court under Chief Justice Earl Warren, a former Republican governor of California, unanimously agreed that separate schools were inherently unequal and thus unconstitutional.

Immediately, white southerners lawmakers launched a campaign of what they called “massive resistance” to integration. Some Virginia counties closed their public schools. Others took funds from integrated public schools and used a grant system to redistribute those funds to segregated private schools.

Within years, these segregation academies would dovetail neatly with the religious schools organized after the 1962 Engel v. Vitale decision in which the Supreme Court struck down state-mandated prayer in public schools, and the 1963 Abington School District v. Schempp decision prohibiting teachers from leading students in prayer and Bible reading. The Supreme Court decisions against prayer in schools reinforced the idea that the government opposed “family values,” and fundamentalists pulled their children out of public schools and created alternative religious schools. Fundamentalist leader Jerry Falwell began to suggest that public schools should be abolished entirely.

Both of these developments provided constituents for Ronald Reagan’s rise to political power with a message that public employees had gotten too powerful and that public enterprises should be privatized.

After Reagan’s election, his secretary of education commissioned a study of the nation’s public schools, starting with the conviction that there was a “widespread public perception that something is seriously remiss in our educational system.” The resulting report, titled “A Nation at Risk,” announced: “the educational foundations of our society are presently being eroded by a rising tide of mediocrity that threatens our very future as a Nation and a people.”

Although a later study commissioned in 1990 by the secretary of energy found the data in the original report did not support the report’s conclusions, Reagan nonetheless used it to justify school privatization. He vowed after the report’s release that he would “continue to work in the months ahead for passage of tuition tax credits, vouchers, educational savings accounts, voluntary school prayer, and abolishing the Department of Education. Our agenda is to restore quality to education by increasing competition and by strengthening parental choice and local control.”

The drive to push tax dollars from public schools to private academies through a voucher system remained a top priority for those on the right. In his first term, Trump asked Congress to fund “school choice for disadvantaged youth, including millions of African-American and Latino children. These families should be free to choose the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school that is right for them.” His education secretary, Betsy DeVos, was a staunch supporter of school choice and the voucher system; she and her family gave $600,000 to promote school choice ballot laws in the decade before 2017.

The coronavirus pandemic sped up the push to defund public schools as Trump pushed hard to transfer funds from the closed public schools to private schools. That push helped to change the nature of vouchers from ones targeted at students from poor families or students with special needs toward vouchers for everyone. In 2022, Arizona lawmakers passed the biggest school voucher program in the nation.

Advocates claimed that the new program would “save taxpayers thousands per student, millions statewide,” but in fact, as Eli Hager of ProPublica explained in 2024, the parents most likely to apply for subsidies already had their children in private school or were homeschooling them, using the vouchers to replace what they had been paying in the past. The state’s spending on vouchers ballooned to $886 million in 2024–2025 as families from wealthier, whiter school districts used vouchers for children who were already in private school. The costs blew a hole in the state’s budget: in 2024, Arizona faced a shortfall of $1.4 billion, forcing the state to slash spending for water infrastructure, road repair, and community colleges.

But voucher programs continued to expand, helped by DeVos’s continued promotion of vouchers after Trump left office. In 2022 a nonprofit she founded poured about $9 million—about $2.5 million of which came from DeVos and her husband—into state elections, backing nearly 200 candidates who would push school vouchers to subsidize private schools with public tax money.

In May 2025, Texas governor Greg Abbott signed into law a voucher program in Texas under which, beginning this fall, families will receive about $10,000 a year for each school-age child to spend at a private school or $2,000 for children being homeschooled. The program is capped at $1 billion in its first two years, but experts predict it will rise to almost $5 billion by 2030.

The measure had faced opposition from Democrats and also Republicans from rural districts who worried about money draining from their public schools. It passed only after national pro-voucher advocates poured money into replacing the Republican state legislators who had stood against a voucher system with pro-voucher candidates. Abbott said that one of those donations, $6 million from Republican megadonor billionaire Jeff Yass of Pennsylvania, was the “largest single donation in Texas history.”

Earlier this month, Jaden Edison and Sneha Dey of the Texas Tribune explained that a report from the state comptroller showed that of the more than 100,000 families participating in the new private school voucher program, most are white and from urban areas. Their families make less than twice the federal poverty level. About 70% were already attending private schools or being homeschooled.

Austin Democratic state senator Sarah Eckhardt said the report “proves this program is a billion-dollar handout to exclusive private schools concentrated in big cities, while public schools across the state are underfunded and closing at an alarming rate.”

In Arizona, opponents of the voucher program tried to put onto the ballot this fall a measure that would have limited eligibility for the program by income and cracked down on the misuse of funds by homeschoolers, who used voucher money for ninja warrior training centers, trampoline parks, pianos, and so on. But voucher supporters sued over the signatures on the ballot measure, and on Tuesday the Arizona Supreme Court decided in their favor, throwing the measure out of this fall’s election.

Elvia Díaz of the Arizona Mirror wrote: “Arizona school vouchers that are pulling $1 billion away from students in K–12 public schools are here to stay, whether we like it or not.” She noted that “the real challenge is a public school system left underfunded and a voucher system left unchecked.”

In 1831, southern lawmakers tried to create a white nation by making it a crime to educate Black Americans. In 2026 the intent to exclude certain Americans from participation in the Enlightenment principles that undergird the nation remains the same, only less explicit.

Notes:

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aia/part3/3h500t.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/12/in-southern-towns-segregation-academies-are-still-going-strong/266207/

https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/just-visiting/nation-risk-and-re-segregation-schools

https://progressive.org/magazine/private-school-vouchers-levin/

https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2021/05/07/tracking-the-growing-cost-to-taxpayers-of-private-school-vouchers/

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona-education/2021/08/17/arizona-gov-doug-ducey-offers-incentives-reject-mask-mandates/8169357002/

https://www.courthousenews.com/devos-family-donated-600k-school-choice-ballot-efforts/

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/12/07/504451460/school-choice-101-what-it-is-how-it-works-and-does-it-work

https://www.npr.org/2017/02/28/516717981/watch-live-trump-addresses-joint-session-of-congress

https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/001297849

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/28/trump-private-schools-pandemic-451757

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/12/07/504451460/school-choice-101-what-it-is-how-it-works-and-does-it-work

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/betsy-devos-american-federation-children-private-school-rcna76307

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/01/16/greg-abbott-jeff-yass-camapaign-donation/

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/05/03/texas-school-vouchers-greg-abbott-signs/

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/03/esa-students-texas-school-vouchers-first-year/

https://www.sosaznetwork.org/2026/a-case-study-on-arizonas-universal-esa-voucher-program/

https://www.propublica.org/article/arizona-school-vouchers-budget-meltdown

https://www.abc15.com/news/local-news/investigations/arizona-empowerment-scholarships-what-304-million-bought

https://azmirror.com/2026/08/18/school-voucher-regulation-measure-prop-212-is-pushed-off-the-ballot/

https://azmirror.com/2026/08/20/arizona-voters-wont-get-to-rein-in-vouchers-dont-tell-us-they-all-love-it/

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/04/01/texas-voucher-applications-demographics/

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Moke Impacts Hawaii; Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall from the Great Basin to the Plains

Trump's space transportation policy calls for new spaceport on federal land

A new national space transportation policy signed by President Donald Trump on Thursday calls for the development of more spaceports to support more than 1,000 launches and reentries per year by 2030.

The presidential memorandum replaces a 2013 policy signed by former President Barack Obama. Both policies share an emphasis on supporting the commercial space industry and underscore the importance of assured access to space. But the launch sector has changed immensely since then. There were 176 orbital launch attempts from US soil last year, nearly 10 times the number in 2013. SpaceX led the pack last year with 165 orbital launches of its Falcon 9 rocket, plus five suborbital test flights of the much larger Starship.

"By 2030, our space transportation ranges must grow to support more than 1,000 launches and reentries every year," the policy says. "The policies set forth in this memorandum will secure America's continued superiority in space."

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What should I ask Annie Lowrey?

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her.  She has a new and very interesting book coming out, namely The Time Tax: How the Government Wastes Our Time―and How to Fix It.  More generally, from Wikipedia:

Annie M. Lowrey…is an American journalist who writes on politics and economic policy for The Atlantic. Previously, Lowrey covered economic policy for The New York Times and prior to that was the Moneybox columnist for Slate. She was also a staff writer for the Washington Independent and was on the editorial staffs of Foreign Policy and The New Yorker. She is a proponent of universal basic income.

So what should I ask her?

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Are we watching the U.S. go bankrupt?

“Gradually, then suddenly.” — The Sun Also Rises

Lots of people are worried about rising long-term interest rates. Short-term interest rates are controlled by the central bank. But the Fed doesn’t usually intervene in the market for longer-term bonds, so when these interest rates move around, it means the market is telling us something. So a lot of people were worried when the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds jumped by 6 basis points (0.06%) the other day.

Why were people scared? Well, remember that when interest rates go up, it means bond prices went down. Which means that fewer people wanted to buy U.S. government bonds. This could be a signal of several bad things:

  1. It could signal expectations of higher inflation. When future money will be worth less, bond investors demand higher interest rates today. Higher inflation also means the Fed will probably raise interest rates.

  2. It could signal a loss of confidence in the U.S. government. If people think there’s a possibility that the U.S. won’t repay its debts, they will charge a higher risk premium to hold that debt. These doubting investors are sometimes called “bond vigilantes”. Bond vigilantes could be scared by soaring U.S. debt levels and deficits, and/or by irresponsible geopolitical and economic policies from the Trump administration.

Here’s John Cochrane on the specter of the bond vigilantes:

Unsustainable fiscal policies can only go on so long. Eventually bond investors decide that the US will not in the end do the right thing after trying everything else, and default, expropriation, taxation, capital controls, or sharp inflation is on its way. They stop buying long-term bonds especially, and look to the comfort of short term bonds…For some reason there is limited demand for long-term treasury debt…

The beginning of a global sovereign debt retrenchment would show up first in a feeling of limited demand…Investors, seeing trouble demand a larger risk premium for longer term debt…Moving to short maturity structures is a classic symptom of trouble ahead.

Among the people who were scared by the rise in interest rates, apparently, were the Trump administration. Higher long-term interest rates mean higher mortgage rates,1 which make American voters mad. They also make it harder for the U.S. government to finance its enormous deficits. So Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the government was intervening in the bond market, with a program to buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This pushed up bond prices — and pushed down interest rates — for exactly one day, but then the bond markets bounced right back:2

US Treasuries fell a day after the Trump administration’s surprise decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds…The 30-year yield on Thursday rose over seven basis points to as much as 5.27%, where it was just ahead of the US Treasury Department’s announcement early Wednesday.

So are we watching the collapse of confidence in the U.S. government? Is this the beginning of bankruptcy for Uncle Sam? Probably not yet. The underlying trends of excessive borrowing and boneheaded policies do bear keeping an eye on, and collapses of investor confidence can happen fast once they begin. But it’s unlikely that a true sovereign debt crisis has begun.

How much are interest rates actually up by?

One reason I’m not terrified by the rise in long-term rates is that it’s not actually that big of a rise!

In stories about rising rates, you see a lot of charts about how it’s a global phenomenon:

Source: Bloomberg

This has interesting implications, but first, notice that except for Japan, most of the rise was actually in 2021-2023. So whatever happened to make bond investors demand higher rates, most of it happened years ago.

Here’s just the U.S., zoomed out to cover the last decade:

Long-term rates fell in 2019 and bottomed out during the pandemic, then in 2022 and 2023 they had a big sustained rise. In comparison, the rise since early 2026 has been very small — only a few tenths of a percent.

That could be the beginning of a catastrophic rise, and of course when you’re carrying as much debt as the U.S. government is, even a small increase in borrowing costs can be a headache if it’s sustained over a long period of time. But I just can’t look at that little wiggle in 2026 and see evidence of a bond market collapse. You should be very worried about the U.S. national debt, but this rise in rates should only make you a tiny bit more worried, if at all.

So what is behind the (small) rise in long-term rates? There are three basic possibilities.

Is it inflation?

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Collections: Pre-Modern Armies for Worldbuilders, Part Vb: Pixel Armies for Pixel Societies

This is the second half of the final part (I, IIa, IIb, III, IVa, IVb, Va, Vb) of our apparently five-part series laying out some general guidelines for how pre-modern armies are organized, with fictional worldbuilding and historical patterns in mind. Last time we started checking some fictional militaries against the general patterns we’ve laid out and we’re going to continue doing that this week.

This week, I want to turn to some of the more complex militaries structures we’ve discussed and I found they were more common in my repertoire of video games than film or literature, perhaps because the ultra-long-form structure of many video games provides a lot more space to explore complex institutions. So this week, we’re going to look at an example of a professional standing army in the Imperial Legion of The Elder Scrolls series, some private enterprise war through the Vailian Trading Company of Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire and the finally try to untangle the military system of Baldur’s Gate from the broader Forgotten Realms constructed world (including but not limited to Baldur’s Gate 3).

But first, as always, recruiting and maintaining large pre-modern armies is expensive! Much like many of those pre-modern armies, this project is supported by devolving the costs of my ruinous book-buying habit on to recruits readers. You can help by spreading the word to new readers and by supporting this project over at Patreon. If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).

The Imperial Legion

Now I should start by noting one of the obvious quirks of discussing any sort of worldbuilding when it comes to video games which is that video games are the product not of a single vision but of many hands, even more so than film or tv. After all, even just the dialogue of a single game is the product of more than one writer (Oblivion credits six ‘Quest Designers’ and two more for ‘Additional Writing,’ for instance) and of course a lot of the creative decisions are also made by artists, level designers and so on. And of course that team might be very different from one game to the next: there’s a lot of turnover from Morrowind to Skyrim.1 So it shouldn’t surprise us that there may be some inconsistencies or contradictions; nevertheless there is enough continuity here to proceed.

We can begin by sketching out our civilian society. I really think the society of The Elder Scrolls is something we should come back to in more depth, because while it often models itself as the most generic ‘generic fantasy world,’ it actually isn’t in some interesting ways. But we’ll have to stay brief here.

Tamriel (the world of The Elder Scrolls) is, like our previous examples, a complex agrarian society, but it is different in important ways: Tamriel is substantially more urban than either Westeros or Middle Earth. That isn’t just reflected in it having larger cities – these games city sizes are invariably products of graphical limitations, rather than direct one-to-one expressions of worldbuilding – but in the organization of society: in the places we’ve seen mostly clearly (Cyrodiil, Morrowind and Skyrim) the Cyrodiillic Empire (from here on, just ‘the Empire’ for short) is able to organize its administration entirely through urban centers. Castles – fortified private homes in the countryside – exist in this world, but local administration is urban, even in a relatively under-developed province like Skyrim, where each of the administrative divisions (‘Holds’) has a capital in an urban settlement, be that a major city for the larger holds (Riften, Windhelm, Whiterun, Markarth and Solitude all seem to be intended as major cities) or smaller towns for the lesser holds (Falkreath, Dawnstar, Morthal and Winterhold). This is a society organized around cities, rather more like the ancient Mediterranean world than medieval Europe in that regard (and given the frequent Roman theming of the Empire, this hardly seems like an accident). Still agrarian – most of what is going on is still farming – but meaningfully more urban.

The Empire is in turn organized into provinces (nine of them) roughly corresponding to the historic areas of settlement of its constituent fantasy races. Cyrodiil is the capital province and by far the largest (only Morrowind comes close and much of it is thinly settled) and most populous – it is the imperial core and its size and population helps explain why the government in Cyrodiil is able to more-or-less (mostly less, by the time of Skyrim) hold the rest of Tamriel. Each of the provinces has its own internal customary local systems of government. That may seem strange but pre-modern territorial empires often left local ruling systems in place when they could and Cyrodiil does as well. In Cyrodiil proper, we see the province is divided into sub-regions (Counties) with a local ruler (a count) who is strongly subordinated to the center. While the position of count is hereditary, the position has very limited authority (as the wiki notes). in practice, Cyrodiil itself is a state with one legal system dictated from the capital and local ‘rulers’ reduced mostly to functionaries who implement that system, rather than independent powers in their own right.

Via the Unofficial Elder Scrolls Page wiki, the map of Tamriel released alongside Oblivion, which has been the standard map of the whole empire since that game. You can see that Cyrodiil is much larger than any other province, which is remarkable because it is also more densely peopled than any other province as well.

Outside of Cyrodiil, local communities are organized by local laws under local leaders: Morrowind is still ruled by its Great Houses, each with their own territory, while Skyrim is ruled by its Jarls. These entities retain their own local militaries independent of the Empire and so we ought to understand the periphery here as consisting of vassal polities. In short the state part of the Empire is Cyrodiil (and perhaps small parts of the other provinces), but much of the area it rules is non-state client rulers. That also shouldn’t be surprising: this was the normal structure for a lot of large empires – the empires of the Late Bronze Age come to mind especially. Notably though – and we’ll come back to this – the Imperial Legions (the military force of the Empire proper) maintain pretty obvious ‘escalation dominance’ over Cyrodiil’s vassals (at least until things get pear-shaped in Skyrim).2

So we have a fairly well-consolidated state in Cyrodiil which provides the imperial core for the Empire and then a periphery of vassal state- and non-state polities (mostly non-state, as we see them) which the Empire very much controls. How does the military system map onto that?

Surprisingly well, actually, so long as we account for the limitations in scale imposed by the genre (an RPG cannot have 90,000 men on the screen or it will crash) and the requirement for things like ‘town guards’ (so they player doesn’t murder-hobo entire towns).

The political structure (an imperial government with a core territory that also rules over vassal polities) is mirrored in the military structure: there is both the Imperial Legion but also local military forces. In Oblivion, these local forces (commanded by the counts) are little more than constabularies, something that actually is expressed pretty well in-game by how immediately out-matched they are by the Oblivion Crisis compared to the heavier forces of the Imperial Legion. In Morrowind and Skyrim, the forces of the local governments (the Jarls in Skyrim, the [dissertation on the wonderfully complex government of Morrowind here] in Morrowind) look to be quite a bit more substantial: particularly in Morrowind, one gets the sense that the armies of the Great Houses and of the Tribunal Temple are quite formidable (heavier, more expensive equipment, more magic, and so on), even if not a match for the Imperial Legion itself.3 That makes sense: in order to maintain control, the Imperial Legion has to maintain ‘escalation dominance’ – the ability to win at higher levels of escalation (thus dissuading potential foes from escalating) – over the many regional armies of the empire’s provinces.

Via the Unofficial Elder Scrolls Wiki, a selection of Imperial Legion soldiers, with rank descending from left to right. You can see quite clearly that this is n army with relatively uniform, rank-stratified equipment. The largest difference is gender-based (some armor looks different on women and female legionaries tend to wear skirts in addition to their armor), but by and large the legion is uniform apart from very low ranking recruits.

The major problem with the local military forces is that they appear to be standing forces to a substantial degree. We see a lot of ‘guards’ standing around on duty and such. But in practice, such local rulers aren’t going to have much need for a standing military force on duty all the time: most communities have sporadic security needs and small communities generally do not even require much of a permanent, standing constabulary. Instead, we might expect the permanent force to be a small retinue around the local ruler (we actually do see this in Skyrim with the concept of thanes), but beyond that, we might expect a ‘raised for the moment’ form of military organization: some sort of levy or militia, possibly with a standing component that is just a rotating period of duty among those liable to be drawn into the full militia in an emergency (a select levy to go with the general levy). In that case, ‘guard’ wouldn’t so much be a career as it would be something like a two-week shift every year that you had to do, effectively as part of your taxes.

The Imperial Legion (or legions) itself is also a recognizable structure: it seems pretty clearly to be a professional army. Members of the legion are very clearly deployed far from home (a point often exemplified by the legion’s multicultural recruiting) on a permanent basis and are full-time soldiers. Recruiting seems to be done through volunteers. While we see some recruitment of local auxiliary forces in Skyrim, these tend to be lighter troops and might be local auxiliaries: the clear nucleus of the force, we’re told, arrived with General Tullius from Cyrodiil. The legion is most often stationed in permanent fortifications (we see a lot in Morrowind) or key cities (like the Imperial City in Oblivion) – it is not a local militia and makes no effort to be ‘everywhere.’ Its equipment is remarkably (though not perfectly) uniform even in regions where its styles are distinctly foreign such as Morrowind or Skyrim, suggesting that equipment is state-issued and somewhat standardized. It also seems to be a long-service professional organization: we see quite a few ‘old soldiers’ still serving, both in desk-jobs and in combat roles.

A pair of Imperial Legion soldiers from Oblivion. While they retain some of their Roman theme (including an out-of-place Corinthian style helmet that I think is supposed to give Roman vibes, even though it is Greek-inspired), it is striking how much heavier the armor’s design is here than in either Morrowind or Skyrim. It makes the distinction between the plate-armored Imperial Legion and mail-armored town guards very visually striking.

And this is a structure that actually makes a fair bit of sense for a state like this: vassal rulers retain smaller local forces and the Empire largely lets them deal with the day-to-day work of order and administration. Meanwhile, the imperial center, with its greater resources, maintains a large, professional, well-equipped standing army that enables it to coerce those local rulers as well as engage in large-scale warfare. One imagines that, in the event of a major security threat, we’d see the Imperial Legion forces form the core of a field army, probably supplemented by non-legion local forces. The amusing thing is, while I think the developers imagine this structure as ‘Roman-ish,’ the state it actually recalls to me most clearly is the Neo-Assyrian Empire (fl. 911-626) which maintained a core professional army of full-time infantrymen (in matched pairs of archers and shield-bearers) who were then supported by levies drawn up from the empire’s vassals.4

The Imperial Legion in Skyrim. It is interesting that the legion seems a bit lighter in terms of equipment in Skyrim as compared to previous entries (although the pseudo-Roman theme remains clear). I wonder if this was an effort to more clearly express that the Empire is ‘on the ropes’ in Skyrim’s time period as compared to previous games, or simply a product of the decision to almost evenly divide the Legion between heavy and light armor troops (whereas Stormcloaks and town guards are mostly light armor types).

What I think is somewhat underdeveloped – especially in Oblivion and Skyrimis the apparatus to pay for all of this. While other kinds of military systems can have their costs effectively devolved, a state-equipped professional army has to be paid out of the treasury, which in turn demands a state with the ability to raise a lot of revenue. Because it is a volunteer professional army, these soldiers would have to be well paid in order to recruit and retain them. Notably, we do not see in The Elder Scrolls, any indication that these costs are being defrayed by private enterprise war – the Imperial Legion is not a contractor-based army and commissions in its officer corps are not purchased, but awarded based in merit and internal promotion.

Now that’s not to say we don’t see any of that apparatus. The Empire clearly raises revenue both through taxes and through state-chartered monopolies. One of the first things we see in Morrowind is the Syda Neen Census and Excise Office, suggesting both head and excise taxes (excise taxes are taxes on specific goods) and there is a quest related to local tax collection. That said, the tax infrastructure in Morrowind is relatively minimal and that makes sense: most of the game takes place on Vvardenfel, which is only in the initial stages of having imperial control established. Notably, what collection we do see is in ports, suggesting customs and excise taxes may be central here, which also makes sense for a region that is only slowly being brought fully into central administration: port duties and excise taxes on luxury goods (I recall, but cannot find the line of dialogue, where we’re told that the excise taxes are on alcohol) are easier and quicker things to set up.

But what we don’t see is a more focused and intense extraction system in Cyrodiil or especially in Skyrim. By the time Skyrim takes place, the Empire is no longer at peace, but is recovering from a large war and trying to rapidly prepare for its seemingly inevitable sequel, which should demand high revenues and thus that taxes would be high as well. Yet ‘tax revolt’ is nowhere in the Stormcloak rebellion’s motivation (they’re focused more on religious persecution and ethno-nationalism) and we see almost none of the apparatus of extraction that we ought to see for a province that has been long-held by the Empire. The same is broadly true for Cyrodiil, though there are a couple of quests in Oblivion related to things like port taxes in Anvil and such.

Alongside that fairly minimal taxation apparatus, we have another major revenue source, which is the East Empire Company, a fairly obvious riff off of the British East India Company (even borrowing the ‘East’ despite appearing in places like Skyrim that are…not in the East), a massive vertically integrated company with a bunch of state-chartered monopolies on luxury goods. That is a very historically rooted way for a state to raise revenue, of course. The problem is that it isn’t enough. Recall, Tamriel is a complex agrarian society: we see no hint of even early mass manufacture, much less industry, so the overwhelming majority of economic activity is going to be in agriculture and pastoralism. That in turn necessarily means that the revenues generated from something like the East Empire Company are going to be somewhat marginal to the state itself. The Roman Empire had, for instance, a slew of state monopolies (on things like silver mines) as well as rents on state-controlled lands and resources which the Romans collectively called vectigalia, but it is very clear that the large majority of Roman taxes were what the Romans called tributum: taxes assessed on agricultural land or produce.

So what we ought to see in order to complete the Imperial Legions is the infrastructure, particularly in Cyrodiil and Skyrim, for substantial tax collection on the common folk, particularly on agriculture. Now that could be structured in two ways: we could see (as we do in Morrowind) direct imperial taxation, with imperial officials in each settlement assessing taxes themselves. Now those officials might be direct employees of the Empire, but an equally likely solution (which we do seem to see in Morrowind in Caldera, as I recall) are tax farmers: private businessmen who have contracted to do tax collection in an area.

Alternately, the Empire might do what the Romans eventually did: assess taxes on communities and leave it up to local leaders and governments on how to collect those taxes. Given how visible and important local ‘vassal’ rulers are in the Empire, this seems to me the more likely solution: tell the local Jarl or Count or Great House that it is responsible for raising a specific amount of money (or revenue in kind, so a specific amount of grain or recruits or whatever else) and then let them sort it out with their own local administrative apparatus. That said, if this was the system, we ought to hear about it more, especially in Skyrim where the local revolt against the Empire ought to mean that imperial taxes are being collected in some places and are not being collected in others.

All of that said, the fact that the Empire in The Elder Scrolls has a somewhat fragmented structure and then has a fragmented military apparatus – with a professional army enforcing imperial power over a bunch of much smaller local militaries which do the day-to-day work of maintaining law and order – works as a reflection of the society we’re shown. What is missing is mostly just the apparatus of empire itself, which has really been neglected in the setting’s worldbuilding since Morrowind.

The Vailian Trading Company

That said, bringing up the East Empire Trading Company of the Elder Scrolls games highlights one odditiy: the EEC lacks its own military force, instead relying primarily on the Imperial Legion (something we see clearly in Solstheim) and only occasionally on local goons. But of course a massive, state-chartered trading company of this sort is frequently going to have to operate far from the center of imperial control and potentially with local communities that object quite loudly to being so obviously exploited. As a result, these sorts of ‘mega-corps’ tend to operate their own independent military forces: the societates of Roman publicani that managed the tax-farming system (prior to Augustus’ reforms to the largely community-centered tax system mentioned above, though some taxes remained farmed) maintained private security forces we can see clearly in documentary evidence from Roman Egypt, while early modern trading ‘mega-corps’ like the British East India Company or the Dutch VOC maintained full-on private militaries, complete with armies and warships.

But we do see that structure in Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire. And let me also just say: if you are a fan of classic computer role-playing games (BG3, Wrath of the Righteous, Rogue Trader, Solasta, that sort of thing), you really ought to give Deadfire a spin. It is very good and very tightly written (and the stronger of the two Pillars games). It’s also, I think, a better introduction to Eora than the more recent Avowed and I really liked Avowed.

Here the setting is the Deadfire Archipelago, a smaller region in the larger world of Eora, with three principle military powers along with a fourth minor power (the Principi sen Patrena, a very loose pirate confederation that survives to a significant degree in the shatter-zone created by the other three that we’ll leave aside here) and all three are actually pretty well realized. The actually indigenous local power are the Huana. They are significantly fragmented: the strongest tribe (the Kahanga) are a complex agrarian society with a large capital city (Neketaka) that exert an imperial overlordship over smaller tribes and communities in their periphery. Their society is a caste-based one and their military structure follows that: the priests (including ‘Shapers’ who wield powerful magic) and the warriors both are drawn from the highest caste, the Mataru, which thus acts as a hereditary military-and-religious aristocracy which also – not by accident – controls most of the wealth. Their military is thus drawn primarily from this upper-class, drawing its cohesive principle from the exclusivity and strong social expectations for that class, financed by the wealth of its role as the ruling elite (that is to say, wealth extracted from the lower, worker classes). But of course that system imposes strong limits too: the military cannot be readily expanded beyond those classes effectively and the entrenched class interests of the elite render the Huana military static and unresponsive to new technology – though formidable, their position relative to rivals is deteriorating. As a result, the player’s interactions with the Huana are always contextualized by the Huana leadership’s own sense of growing military vulnerability to incursions from foreign colonial powers, of which they have two.

From Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire, the Huana capital of Neketaka. The vertical structure replicates the class structure: the military and religious castes are at the top and their trash and refuse literally flow down to the artisan and eventually worker castes at the bottom. It is a neat visual expression of the society made all the more striking by Queen’s Berth (controlled by the VTC) and the Brass Citadel (controlled by the RDC) strangling the city economically from the bottom up. The player can side with the Huana, but their rulers are not interested in changing their culture and it is hard to see how their rigid, unchanging social system can hold out against the dynamic, predatory invaders for long.
Deadfire is a really good RPG and I really encourage you to give it a try if you haven’t.

The first is the Royal Deadfire Company, which represents the distant maritime kingdom of Rauatai in the Archipelago. The name is something of a euphemism: the institution began as the Rauatai Trading Company, but was brought under the direct control of the ruler of Rauatai (the ranga-nui) and converted into the RDC, which in practice isn’t really a trade company anymore, but an expeditionary force, an army of the government of Rauatai which aims to conquer the region – albeit gradually, because the Huana are still strong enough to make a direct war of conquest a risky proposition. The RDC is thus effectively an expeditionary force of professional soldiers, funded and maintained by Rauatai (itself a large maritime empire) doing ‘ports-and-forts‘ imperialism. Consequently, what we see of them are fortified staging posts (notably Hasongo) to support their navies and channel goods back to the homeland and nearly all of the people we see are military personnel more or less directly employed by the Rauataian state.

Via the Wiki, the Rauataian main base at Hasongo (which has been better days). While there is a port and storage here, you can very visibly see this is a military outpost first and barely a civilian settlement at all. The contrast with the VTC outposts, which almost invariably have a large local population and lots of civilian economic activity, is marked. The RDC is a predatory, exploitative army of conquest, whereas the VTC is a predatory, exploitative company.

Notably, as an aside, we don’t get as much information about the rest of Rauatai’s military that I recall. Honestly, I’d think something like a core army of conscripts might make sense (given how militarized the society is described as being), with only the forces deployed permanently abroad (like the RDC) being composed of professional ‘long-timers.’

In contrast to the RDC which is almost an army of a foreign state, the third power really is a trading company first: the Vailian Trading Company (itself a pretty clear echo of the Dutch VOC, down to the similar acronym). One oddity worth noting is that the VTC is not attached to one state, but several, representing the combined efforts of the Vailian Republics, a loose confederation of city-states. The nearest historical parallel here may actually be something like the historical Hanseatic League. But where the RDC is essentially an arm of the Rauataian state, the VTC is doing something different: private enterprise war. The VTC is a company, run by a board of directors, answerable to investors in the Vailian Republics under a charter sanctions by their confederation.

From the Wiki, the banner of the Vailian Trading Company. The five stars are meant to indicate the company is recognized by all five of the major constituent Vailian Republics.

And (unlike the EEC of the Elder Scrolls series), it has its own military to secure and advance its operations, every bit as predatory as the RDC. And what we see – and I think this makes sense for the society being presented – is a contractor-based military. Indeed, we meet one of these contractors, Atello Valera, who the VTC has contracted to provide a pretty large security presence, including a number of warships. What I do think is missing here is a greater array of contractors and sub-contractors. Realistically, we might expect the regional heads of the VTC (Ignato Castol and Lueva Alvari, who split maritime and land-based operations between them) to have a few key contractors (whatever the Vailian equivalent to colonels or condottiere is), who would then have sub-contractors running individual ships or companies, with basically everyone in the chain effectively functioning as a sort of ‘military entrepreneur.’ We do get a real sense of that entrepreneurship from the Valeras, but they ought not be the ‘only game in town’ on the military side.

From Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire, some VTC troops. There’s actually neat visual storytelling here. The soldier on the far left is a company guard and by far the heaviest armed. Next the three fellows in the one picture are Valera family soldiers, their lighter equipment fitting with the fact that Valera is a naval military contractor. Meanwhile the two figures on the far right are soldiers contracted under the Bardattos and resemble more closely the ‘average’ VTC soldier we see throughout the game.
The VTC, in short, has a bunch of different people contracting soldiers for different tasks, so while there’s a clear cultural similarity in their equipment, it isn’t uniform (unlike the RDC, which is quite uniform!)

That said, I think Deadfire actually does a good job of correlating militaries and societies: the Huana, Rauatai and Vailians have quite different societies and thus quite different militaries: a warrior-class military with devolved costs that fits the caste-based Huana society, a professional military with standardized state equipment and regular pay that fits the very centralized Rauataian state and finally a private enterprise warfare military using military contractors that fits the decentralized structure of the Vailian Republics.

Defending Baldur’s Gate

Now we turn to the unusual military structure of Baldur’s Gate, drawing not just on the recent Baldur’s Gate 3, but more broadly on the lore of the city as part of the Forgotten Realms setting. We’re picking one city to focus on in part because it has become the most visible part of the Forgotten Realms’ setting and also because, to be frank, the military, social and economic structures of the Forgotten Realms are kind of a mess. That’s not necessarily a harsh criticism – this was a setting built for specific purposes (facilitating D&D gameplay) rather than worldbuilding verisimilitude. But that still makes them interesting to talk about from this perspective because they often test public assumptions about what pre-modern societies look like.

(Note that in BG3 one of the major plot-points is an effort by one of the villains to unbalance the city’s military system by adding on an army of evil metal golems to it, in a bid to take over. I’m going to leave that part out here, because the Steel Watchers aren’t part of the stable military system of Baldur’s Gate. Ironically, if Gortash had succeeded, the military system of Baldur’s Gate would make a lot more sense: you’d have a tyrant monarch who ruled the city by virtue of controlling its military.)

Via the Wiki, a screenshot of Baldur’s Gate as it appears in Baldur’s Gate III.

Baldur’s Gate, in the setting, is a major seaside mercantile city with a large population, clearly part of a larger complex agrarian society. Its upper-class are wealthy burghers (rather than large landowners) and it is ruled by a council of four ‘grand dukes’ who are elected for life.5 It is also a big city by pre-modern standards: the wiki figures a population around 120,000 or so in the urban area.

Now one thing in the lore is that because the city has a natural defensive position (it is located on an inlet) and because it has a very strong outer wall built by the heroic figure Balduran, for whom the city is named, that it is generally peaceful and does not necessarily require a large army. The problem here of course is that Baldur’s Gate doesn’t just need to defend the city core, it needs to defend the agricultural hinterland that feeds it. This is a common problem in fantasy worldbuilding – cities divorced from the agricultural lands they require to survive. Nor can this issue be salvaged by saying the Baldur’s Gate is a city that lives on trade and such. These are agrarian societies, which is to say that food production (via farming) makes up the lion’s share of the economy, with textile production (also via pastoralism, agriculture and peasant labor) making up quite a lot of the rest. Consequently, in the absence of industrial production, there’s no amount of economic activity you can be doing in the remaining small slice (think 10-20% at most) of the economy that is going to allow a city to import all of its food and fabric. The only activity that can manage this feat is empire: the (violent) extraction if someone else’s food and fabric, in which case you still have a hinterland, it is simply held by force and coercion.6 The city needs a hinterland and it needs to be defended.

That said, Baldur’s Gate does have an army – indeed it has one-and-a-half armies, in practice. Order in the upper city is kept by an armed constabulary called The Watch which, according to the Wiki, has about a thousand members, of whom perhaps 300 or so are on active duty at any given time, making this effectively a civic militia. What keeps the Watch from acting fully like a military is that they are not empowered to operate outside of the city walls. Amusingly to me, this force of – at any given moment – 300 active soldiers and 700 or so reservists, somehow rates a high command with six major generals and two more senior generals despite being no bigger than a battalion (which would normally by commanded by just one major or captain in our world).

Instead, the main force of Baldur’s Gate’s defense is the Flaming Fist, a mercenary company kept essentially on permanent retainer by the city. It is a standing, effectively professional force, organized on the employment principle, consisting of – according to the wiki – approximately 2,000 soldiers (with a peak strength of 6,000). The Flaming Fist was founded by a grand duke and it seems like its leader (the marshal) is generally one of the four grand dukes that governs the city.

Via the Wiki, the Flaming Fist doing some recruitment.
It is striking how heavy and expensive their equipment is. Maintaining this organization on a permanent basis would be extraordinarily expensive, which if I was a citizen of Baldur’s Gate would get really frustrating, because as far as I can tell the Flaming Fist’s job is to spend the first two acts of every story about the place losing until the heroes show up and save everyone.

And there are a few problems here. The first is a problem that afflicts a lot of Forgotten Realms armies which is this is not enough army. A city-state with more than 100,000 people in the core urban area certainly ought to be able to muster up a much larger army. Medieval Ghent had a population by the late Middle Ages around 50,000 and was able to put something on the order of 8,000 men on the field to fight against the city militia of Bruges in 1382 and they were outnumbered by the Bruges militia. Baldur’s Gate is well over twice the size and yet has a far smaller total force. Indeed, its fairly close in size to Classical Athens (especially if we account for the missing rural countryside a city of that size must have), which was able to deploy more than 12,000 men against Syracuse, supported by roughly 200 triremes (so around 40,000 rowers) and was able to recover from the total loss of that force.

But that size problem gets us to an underlying problem in matching up this type of society, its resources and security needs with the kind of army it has. If we put the Watch aside for now, the primary defense force for Baldur’s Gate are the Flaming Fists and while the lore describes these fellows as a mercenary company because they sometimes take jobs outside of Baldur’s Gate, they’re really a standing army. No one is going to mistake your mercenary company for an independent outfit if it is also traditional that the marshal of the company is also one of the four elected leaders of the city. That’s not an independent mercenary company being hired, that’s a political alliance with Baldur’s Gate enabling another community to gain the protection of its army.

But you may recall as we discussed recruitment and payment principles that the state-supplied (the Flaming Fists have standardized equipment), full-time, long-service professional army is almost exclusively a creature of large, well-administered empires and there’s a reason for that. For one, only such a large and complex state is capable of mobilizing the resources necessary for such an expensive system and equally only large empires have the kind of round-the-clock security needs to justify one. That is, after all, the feature that makes professional armies so expensive: they have to be fed, paid, housed and equipped in wartime as well as peacetime – there is no option to simply send the men back to their homes and jobs. Thus, while smaller states might maintain a small standing force – a prince’s retinue, a small elite unit or a constabulary force – their military is not built around that force, it is built around forces which can be expanded and contracted to fit changing security needs.

As an aside, this is part of why we can’t just say the Flaming Fist function basically as a condottieri force. Italian states raised condottieri in response to specific military threats – they did not maintain them continuously in peacetime. Indeed, one of the key advantages of condottieri was precisely that: you could pay them in war time and not pay them in peace time, though of course they were also famously untrustworthy.

The Flaming Fists also do not fit the political structure of Baldur’s Gate. There is a reason that states which do use standing armies tend to have a unitary power structure, like a monarchy, because the very nature of a long-service standing professional army is that whoever wields that army is the state. Baldur’s Gate is ruled by four high officials who serve for life, three of whom collectively share control over a gendarmerie of 300-part timers and one of whom has control over and the loyalty of a standing for of at least 2,000 professional full-time soldiers. That is a system that becomes a monarchy very fast. Political power here is fragmented, but for some reason military power is not, which is hardly a stable structure.

And finally, the Flaming Fists do not fit the social structure of Baldur’s Gate either. This is a city dominated by a class of wealthy burghers (the ‘patriars,’ a clear riff off of Roman patricians), whose wealth mostly comes from trade or non-agricultural business. That’s fine – there really should be a landholding aristocracy somewhere too – but the problem is that this class is nowhere represented in the military structure. It’s the ruling class, whose interests the military system is intended to protect yet these families do not make up the elite of the military, nor its officer class.

We can effectively go in two directions ‘fixing’ Baldur’s Gate: we can make the society fit the military or the military fit the society. In the first direction: a city which has a professional military force that answers to just one guy (the marshal of the Flaming Fists) isn’t going to be an oligarchic quasi-democracy. It is going to be some kind of autocracy: the marshal is going to be the autocrat who sets the rules, de iure (as a monarchy) or de facto (as a tyranny). In this case, the weakness of the Watch makes sense: this was the city’s old militia, now sidelined because it would threaten the power of a tyrant-marshal, who is probably also busy breaking the power of the old ruling class (the patriars) and consolidating their wealth into his own political network. Alternately, we might get a sort of monarchy-within-bounds as we see in Venice and to an extent (with its two kings) in classical Sparta: a single leader does have command over the military, but the rest of the political system is heavily focused on constraining that leader, to the point that they have officials whose sole job is to watch their every move and there are other political institutions empowered to unilaterally remove a marshal who behaves badly. Even then, a purely professional force seems like a recipe for a self-coup in which the marshal sidelines everyone else because he alone commands the loyalty of the Flaming Fists, whatever the political system may say.

The alternative is to come up with a military system that fits the society we see: a somewhat representative oligarchy (with some democratic elements) primarily lead by a handful of elite families that wield outsized wealth. That kind of society has little need for a large standing army at all: the people with goons are also the people who wield political power and so the system they need is one that catches petty thieves and resolves disputes between each other, not a system to garrison whole districts of the city. The Flaming Fists are unnecessary for such a society (though the Watch as a gendarmerie which serves the collective interests of the patriars might survive).

Now those elite families could tax themselves extremely harshly in order to maintain a meaningful standing army but why would they? Instead, we ought to expect that Baldur’s Gate would defend itself with a civic militia that mirrors its own social structure: the very poor are excluded (and probably don’t vote), while the bulk of the burghers fight as infantry (and have some token political participation) and the patriars serve as officers and cavalry (and have maximum political roles). Because the patriars – or the middling burghers – would rather not tax themselves, they’re going to devolve military costs: everyone buys their own kit and serves based on wealth. That system might take the form of the sort of conscription-based civic armies we see in Greece and Rome or it might take the form of medieval civic militias, like the aforementioned schuttersgilde. If the latter, we should expect those military guilds to be major political actors in the city’s governance, either de iure (they have fixed places on the ruling council or whatever) or de facto (their members just tend always to get elected). Crucially, unlike the Flaming Fists, they wouldn’t be external to the city’s class system, but tightly integrated into it.

Conclusions

This series has ended up rather a lot longer-winded than I intended, but what I hope it has served to demonstrate first is that not all societies have the same sorts of armies. My critiques here have focused mostly on complex agrarian societies, because this was a series for worldbuilders and that is most of what fantasy worlds get made out of, but of course the armies of nomadic pastoral peoples or hunter gatherers are really different as well.

Importantly, societies do not pick their military structures at random, nor are they necessarily free to pick and choose whatever military system they like. Instead, military systems, which are defined by the interaction of principles of recruitment, methods of mobilization, systems of equipment, payment and supply and sources of cohesion are generally long-standing legacy institutions that emerge alongside larger social structures. Individual leaders are rarely at leisure to change or redefine these systems (though it does happen sometimes).

Perhaps most importantly, these systems are invariably tightly connected to the structure of a society and its political organization. No army can help but recreate its civilian social structures on the battlefield. So a society in which the dominant political and economic force is a mass of middling farmers who elect their leaders are likely to form armies composed of a mass of infantrymen who elect their generals. A society in which a handful of elites lord over the disenfranchised and largely impoverished peasantry is likely to have armies centered on mounted elites, with infantry that is limited and unreliable at best. More complex forms of organization, like private enterprise war with military contractors or standing, long-service professional armies, demand states with matching levels of revenues and complexity as well as a set of security needs which demand these expensive, complex and difficult solutions to the problem of raising military force.

While those rules may feel constraining, I think – and I hope in this post and the last, I’ve shown – they can also, for the worldbuilder, offer storytelling opportunities. After all, if armies reproduce their society’s social structures – often more explicitly than the civilian society itself – that means any time an army is ‘on screen,’ it provides an opportunity to say something about the underlying society. An observer who noticed, for instance that British military leadership in the early 1900s was generally drawn from the same handful of schools would have learned something about the structure of power in British society. The same might be said if the person glanced at Europe and noticed that despite its modern industrial economy, most of the high military command of early 1900s Germany in the first World War continued to be drawn from the old Junker class (visible because of the ‘von’ in their names), a trend which continued into the second.

And indeed, someone who glanced at the modern American military and noticed that American officers functionally always have college degrees, that high ranking officers generally have advanced degrees and that American enlisted personnel generally do not have either will have learned something about the structure of class, power and wealth in the United States: our ruling class is defined more by where you went to school and for how long than by your last name or hereditary titles (which we do not have). And the military cannot help but replicate that structure.

The same is equally true in fictional worlds. Of course one shortcut to producing these kinds of interesting linkages is to adopt a historical pattern wholesale by imitating a real polity and making modest changes. That said, it can be equally interesting to think about the implications of odd combinations, especially for societies in transition. Because, of course, societies are never static things and as they change – be that change swift or slow – their military structures will be forced to change with them, or else will be bent and deformed by the attempt not to change. In fiction, civil-military failure can be as interesting as success.

And in the end, a society whose institutions are interwoven and interlinked – as all real societies are – is just more interesting to read about than a fictional society which is a mere jumble of tropes.

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Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ACPN50 PHFO 240526
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lala, located several hundred miles north of Pearl and Hermes
Atoll, on Tropical Depression Moke, located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Iselle,
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.

Western East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands during the middle part of the
week. Some slow development of this system is possible later this
week while it moves northeastward or northward across the western
portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 NHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle are issued under WMO
header WTPZ24 and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABNT20 KNHC 240526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
are located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Further
development of the low is possible, and this system could become a
short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next couple of
days while it moves northward and north-northeastward, well
northeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
later today, and an area of low pressure could form in association
with the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240526
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lala, located several hundred miles north of Pearl and Hermes
Atoll, on Tropical Depression Moke, located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Iselle,
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could still support the development of a short-lived tropical
depression during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northward, before it becomes absorbed by Tropical Storm
Iselle.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle
part of the week. Gradual development is expected thereafter,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or over
the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Well Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form well offshore of Central
America late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system over the weekend while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well
offshore of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands during the middle part of the
week. Some slow development of this system is possible later this
week while it moves northeastward or northward across the western
portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 NHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle are issued under WMO
header WTPZ24 and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


What would it look like to approach the grand planet Saturn? What would it look like to approach the grand planet Saturn?