Wednesday assorted links

1. An observation on left-wing universities.

2. Arnold Kling on marginalism.

3. “You should be holding more babies.

4. Hayekian welfare states.

5. Why Hungary will prove hard to change (FT).

6. Miami-Dade is losing residents?

7. Brazilian real on the rise.

8. Peter Thiel and Emmanuel Todd discussion.  Imperfect sound however.

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The malleable computer

Open source promised that users would be free to change whatever code they were running. The reality, however, is that hardly any of them ever did — it was simply too hard. Now, with AI, it suddenly isn't.

This is very exciting. Being able to add features to any local open-source application and then use that bespoke fork for your own benefit is an incredible step toward the original open source promise.

This isn't just about regular users, either. Even if you are a programmer, you might not be familiar with the language the application is written in. And even if you are, taking the time to get familiar with any substantial codebase is a tall order. AI is compressing that complexity and making it malleable at a ferocious rate.

What excites me even more, though, is when this power is applied to the operating system, and thus the entire computer. When you're able to change not just individual applications, but your system's menu bars, your window manager, your notification system, your everything. 

But you can only do this on Linux. With Windows and macOS, the core elements of the operating system are owned by the companies that make them. While it's often possible to hack certain aspects, it's far from truly having the malleable computer that Linux allows.

I've already seen this a lot in the Omarchy world: users who aren't super technical making the system their own with the help of AI and being utterly delighted by the outcome.

And while this is still a pretty nerdy thing to do, I don't think it will remain contained to that niche for long. As models get even more powerful, the idea that your system is tied down as a fixed black box is likely to become an archaic notion pretty quickly.

As always, the future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed.

NASA’s SPHEREx Mission Maps Water Ice Throughout Cygnus X

3 Min Read

NASA’s SPHEREx Mission Maps Water Ice Throughout Cygnus X

An observation made by NASA’s SPHEREx shows the chemical signatures of water ice and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Cygnus X, one of the most active and turbulent regions of star birth in our Milky Way galaxy.
PIA26748
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/IPAC/Hora et al.

Description

An observation made by NASA’s SPHEREx (Spectro-Photometer for the History of the Universe, Epoch of Reionization, and Ices Explorer) shows the chemical signatures of water ice (shown in bright blue) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (orange) in Cygnus X, one of the most active and turbulent regions of star birth in our Milky Way galaxy.

One of several maps of molecular clouds made by SPHEREx, this observation is detailed in a study published April 15, 2026, in The Astrophysical Journal. The study supports the hypothesis that interstellar ice forms on the surface of tiny dust particles no larger than particles found in the smoke from a candle. The findings show the densest regions of ice coincide with the densest regions of dust, and the dust shields the ice from the intense ultraviolet radiation emitted by newborn stars.

An observation made by NASA’s SPHEREx shows the chemical signatures of water ice and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Cygnus X, one of the most active and turbulent regions of star birth in our Milky Way galaxy.
Figure A

Figure A shows the same region, but in three different wavelengths assigned the colors green, blue, and red. This SPHEREx observation highlights the dark, dusty lanes that protect the water molecules from the intense radiation generated by newborn stars.

Although space telescopes such as NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope and the agency’s retired Spitzer have detected water, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and other icy molecules throughout our galaxy, the SPHEREx observatory is the first infrared mission specifically designed to find such molecules over the entire sky, via the mission’s large-scale spectral survey.

Managed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, the SPHEREx observatory launchedMarch 11, 2025, and has the unique ability to see the sky in 102 colors, each representing a different wavelength of infrared light that offers distinctive information about galaxies, stars, planet-forming regions, and other cosmic features. By late 2025, SPHEREx had completed the first of four all-sky infrared maps of the universe, charting the positions of hundreds of millions of galaxies in 3D to help answer major questions about the cosmos, including those about the origins of water and life. 

The mission is managed by JPL for the agency’s Astrophysics Division within the Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The telescope and the spacecraft bus were built by BAE Systems in Boulder, Colorado. The science analysis of the SPHEREx data is being conducted by a team of scientists at 13 institutions across the U.S. and in South Korea and Taiwan, led by Principal Investigator Jamie Bock, who is based at Caltech with a joint JPL appointment, and by JPL Project Scientist Olivier Doré. Data is processed and archived at IPAC at Caltech in Pasadena, which manages JPL for NASA. The SPHEREx dataset is freely available to scientists and the public.

For more information about the SPHEREx mission visit: https://science.nasa.gov/mission/spherex/

The post NASA’s SPHEREx Mission Maps Water Ice Throughout Cygnus X appeared first on NASA Science.

Short Attention Span Theater

Back in 2013, Alex King and I redesigned the Rands in Repose. Thirteen years — still happy with the design. It’s readable, clean, and prominently features typography I love. What you look at this moment is 90% Alex’s original design.

But there was one more thing we never finished.

Over the years, Esquire featured a densely packed, almost collage-like, front-of-book single page with wildly mixed type sizes, random facts, quips, and blurbs slammed together from the current issue. My short attention span-addled brain loved it. I showed this to Alex as an idea for the footer, and we agreed to take a swing as part of the redesign, but as the volunteer work proceeded, it was obvious we should focus on the header and the body of the site. We dabbled, we didn’t deliver.

Fact: No one ever sees the footer. Yes, some people, but most folks are above-the-fold readers, and a typographically and visually clever footer would be lost on them.

Fact: Never stopped thinking about this footer — for years. I wanted an informationally dense and playful footer that encourages the reader to wander a bit. No strict narrative, just pleasing bits of readable information that pointed to random parts of the site.

Over the years, I poked at the footer, but it remained bland and boring. Then, the robots arrived.

Grumbles Guides

I write a What’s in your bag? piece every couple of years. It’s therapy. I’m trying to figure out if I need to jettison stuff from the bag. It forces me to look at each item in my bag and ask, “Why?” Why is a great question to ask the robots, so when I got to the rat’s nest of cables in my bag, I asked why. Why do I need all of these cables? Which are the best ones to keep? These Whys lead to more Whys, and suddenly it was a day and a half later, and I had pages of research about chargers, cables, lithium batteries, and devices.

I learned a lot. I learned how different Apple devices charge, I learned how lithium batteries are designed, and I learned what makes a good charger. This could’ve been a Rands article, but the content was more research than exposition, so I asked the robots to take a template I’d built and appropriately place my research.

After much back and forth, we ended up with the Apple Charging Situation. This significant artifact was buried in the middle of the Bag piece and didn’t get a lot of attention. No biggie, posting stuff on the Internet follows this pattern: build it well, throw it against the wall, and see if it sticks. It usually does not.

The March Apple hardware releases showed up, and I eagerly read the updated specs. As a newly informed connoisseur of charging, I was curious how the new hardware mapped into my existing observations. After reading a dozen articles, I realized I already had a framework for understanding the charging landscape, so I asked the robots to update the Guide with everything we learned from March 2026. Grumbles 1 did.

I posted the new guide, grabbed the list of changes, and posted to the socials, and that is the version that stuck to the Internet.

The Theatre

You know where Jon Stewart started on TV? He started on a show called Short Attention Span Theater. It ran for five years on The Comedy Channel, with Stewart hosting three years of the show. The format? Clips of stand-up comedy for a half-hour. That’s it. Think YouTube shorts, except with no Internet.

There are important reasons to be alarmed by this type of short-form communication slash entertainment. When you combine bite-sized information with the robots, you get echo-chamber-y endless lists of useless intellectual calories. Think TikTok. It’s fun, but did you actually learn anything?

The chunky card format for the Apple Charging guide is not for everyone. There is a narrative arc, but it’s also just fine if you want to bounce around wherever your eyes take you. That’s the point. Bite-sized chunks of topical information. Choose your own adventure.

And, yes, Grumbles and I redid the footer.

  1. Why Grumbles? It’s the name of my robot. More on this in a later piece.

DC Circuit Smacks Down Boasberg Again in Alien Enemies Act Case

The Trump administration is being saved again from its flagrant contempt of court in the original Alien Enemies Act case, this time by two Trump-appointed judges on the DC Circuit.

This is the second time that the contempt of court inquiry by U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, the chief judge in D.C., has been stymied by the D.C. Circuit. The AEA deportations took place in March 2025 despite Boasberg’s orders to halt the deportations of Venezuelan migrants and turn around any deportation flights already in the air. He’s been trying to get to the bottom of who defied his orders for more than a year, with little to no help from the appeals court.

Today’s opinion is written by Judge Neomi Rao, concurred in by Judge Justin Walker, and dissented from by Judge J. Michelle Childs, a Biden appointee. Rao’s tone toward Boasberg is sneering throughout the majority opinion.




Unraveling in law clerk recruitment, along political lines

 "What's past is prologue:" law clerkships are unraveling yet again, with conservative judges defecting first.

The Harvard Crimson has the story:

Conservative Judges’ Early Hiring Fuels Two-Track Clerkship System at Harvard Law  By Sierra R. Pape and Uy B. Pham

"Federal judges — particularly those aligned with the conservative legal movement — are increasingly recruiting Harvard Law School students during their first year, accelerating a clerkship hiring process that has traditionally taken place much later in law school.

While most judges continue to follow the “on-plan” timeline, where applications open during the summer after students’ second year, a growing number — disproportionately conservative and often affiliated with the conservative Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies — are hiring months earlier through informal networks.

The shift is a sign of a dual system of clerkship hiring at HLS: one track that is formal, application-based, and largely followed by students applying to work with liberal judges, and another that is earlier, network-driven, and dominated by conservative pipelines."

 HT: Martha Gershun

##############

Here's an earlier post on the same divide among judges:

Monday, September 28, 2020

Judicial clerkships in the time of coronavirus--uneven compliance with the pilot hiring plan, and post-clerkship connections

 An article in the UC Davis Law Review Online discusses the hiring of law clerks by U.S. judges, during the current pandemic,  with reference to the  Federal Law Clerk Hiring (Pilot) Plan which is in its second year this year. (The plan calls for judges to delay hiring second year law students until June, and to leave offers open for at least 48 hours.)

The Federal Law Clerk Hiring Pilot and the Coronavirus Pandemic  by Carl Tobias, UC Davis Law Review Online, 2020,54, 1-20.

The article says that compliance with the plan is uneven, but that "numerous jurists who support the nascent pilot are Democratic Presidents' confirmees ... while copious judges who seem to oppose the pilot  in turn are GOP chief executives' appointees..." (p9).

 

 

 

Why does Comet R3 (PanSTARRS) have a wispy tail? Why does Comet R3 (PanSTARRS) have a wispy tail?


Rescind Davis Bacon

The Davis-Bacon Act requires that workers on federally funded construction projects be paid at least the “prevailing wage” for their trade in the local area.

Mike Schmidt, Director of the CHIPS Program Office, has an excellent piece on how Davis-Bacon impacted the CHIPS program. My initial understanding was that it simply required paying construction workers more—an unnecessary transfer from taxpayers to a politically favored group, but not one that would impede efficiency. I was wrong.

Start with the complexity. Davis-Bacon’s prevailing wage isn’t a simple minimum wage: plumbers are not electricians are not fitters, and the required rate varies by locale. The Department of Labor maintains a list of more than 130,000 (!) wage rates to implement it.

That’s complicated enough. But it gets worse. Some firms building fabs used their own employees rather than contractors—and Davis-Bacon applies regardless but it covers only the portion of time an employee spends on “construction” work:

[A]pplying Davis-Bacon to company employees rather than contractors proved to be a big hurdle. Davis-Bacon required tracking every hour each employee spent on covered construction activities — by trade classification, with a different prevailing wage applying to each — and paying a wage differential for that portion of their work as distinct from fab operations work or non-Davis-Bacon construction work. The company also relied heavily on profit-sharing (where a portion of employees’ pay was tied to the firm’s profits) and Davis-Bacon’s guaranteed wage floor was difficult to reconcile with a pay structure that was inherently variable. Moreover, Davis-Bacon has a statutory requirement to pay wages weekly, meaning the company would need to change its payroll systems for a portion of the pay for a portion of its workforce.

Thus, DB required that two salaried employee with equal salaries and profit-sharing plans be paid differentially depending on whether one of them did “construction” work. This created internal strife.

Davis-Bacon was passed in 1931, when a carpenter was a carpenter. How does it apply to building a semiconductor factory?

The construction tasks involved in building and modernizing semiconductor fabs don’t always map cleanly onto DOL’s Davis-Bacon classifications, so applicants must go through a construction plan line-by-line to determine which rate applies to which activity. In traditional Davis-Bacon contexts this is less burdensome because contractors know the system and have processes in place. But semiconductor construction was a novel application, and all of our applicants — and most of their contractors — were navigating Davis-Bacon for the first time.

For large recipients, the administrative cost of this work was real but manageable relative to project scale: they could hire consultants, procure software systems, and build internal compliance capacity….

Perhaps the biggest fiasco involved timing. The government wanted firms to move quickly and encouraged them to break ground before the Act’s rules were finalized. But when Davis-Bacon was added to the Act it required that the firms pay the prevailing wage *retroactively*:

The financial and operational implications of retroactive application were significant. A leading-edge project might have 10,000–12,000 construction workers on site at peak, with a rotating workforce totaling perhaps 30,000 individuals over the project’s life. Working through 300-plus subcontractors across multiple tiers, retroactive application could require identifying wages paid to 20,000 workers who had already cycled off the project, determining what each worker should have been paid under Davis-Bacon, and paying the difference — resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in additional cost.

The retroactive pay exposes the law’s true nature. Firms and workers had already struck voluntary agreements; the work was done, the wages paid. No one can pretend this has anything to do with incentives. Workers received a pure windfall (“DB Christmas!”) for one reason only: “construction workers” are a politically favored class. Janitors and scientists got nothing extra.

Moreover, a large fraction of the cost wasn’t the higher wages at all—it was compliance. Firms likely spent as much reworking payroll systems and hunting down thousands of former workers in this Byzantine classification system as they spent on the wage premiums themselves. Every dollar transferred to workers may have cost firms—and ultimately taxpayers—two dollars or more. A very leaky bucket indeed.

If the Trump administration is serious about cutting regulatory costs and reviving industrial competitiveness, Davis-Bacon is an obvious target. It delivers little to workers, plenty to lawyers and consultants, and a bill to taxpayers for both. Rescind it.

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Defense in Depth, Medieval Style

This article on the walls of Constantinople is fascinating.

The system comprised four defensive lines arranged in formidable layers:

  • The brick-lined ditch, divided by bulkheads and often flooded, 15­20 meters wide and up to 7 meters deep.
  • A low breastwork, about 2 meters high, enabling defenders to fire freely from behind.
  • The outer wall, 8 meters tall and 2.8 meters thick, with 82 projecting towers.
  • The main wall—a towering 12 meters high and 5 meters thick—with 96 massive towers offset from those of the outer wall for maximum coverage.

Behind the walls lay broad terraces: the parateichion, 18 meters wide, ideal for repelling enemies who crossed the moat, and the peribolos, 15–­20 meters wide between the inner and outer walls. From the moat’s bottom to the highest tower top, the defences reached nearly 30 meters—a nearly unscalable barrier of stone and ingenuity.

Upcoming Speaking Engagements

This is a current list of where and when I am scheduled to speak:

The list is maintained on this page.

Impromptu

Illustration of figures in kimonos with colourful patterns and red sashes on a gradient background.

Take a kaleidoscopic journey through the early history of film, inspired by an enduring fascination with motion and form

- by Aeon Video

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NASA chose the right crew to launch a new era of human space exploration

HOUSTON—Their mission is complete. The four people who flew beyond the Moon on NASA's Artemis II mission are back home in Houston with their families. But the lessons from Artemis II are just beginning to be told.

There are tangible, objective takeaways from the nine-day mission. How did NASA's Space Launch System rocket perform? Nearly perfectly. Was the Orion spacecraft up to the job of flying to the Moon and back? Absolutely. Will engineers need to make any changes before the next Artemis mission? Yes, and that's not terribly surprising for a program that, 20 years in, has just flown a crew to space for the first time.

Ars has covered the technical lessons from Artemis II, such as hydrogen leaks on the launch pad, helium leaks in space, and a toilet that wasn't always available for No. 1.

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Restore America to Its Own People

So, about that Door Dash delivery ...

By now, you’ve probably seen the video of the Door Dash woman delivering McDonald’s to Donald Trump at the White House. If not, here you go …

And, because the general news media is on a decaying path toward hell, the exchange between President of the United States and senior citizen grub dispenser was mostly covered as a ho-hum, straight-ahead, nothing-to-see-here moment: Oh, look—Donald Trump received some burgers, chatted up the delivery woman about taxes and tips, then gave her $100. How cute.

The thing is, Donald Trump is a conman. A lifelong conman. From disguising his voice as John Barron to secretly meeting with NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle to pretending to having nearly died in a chopper accident, 90 percent of the things this shitty-ass president does are some sort of scam. As I’ve long maintained, he’s the dude selling knock-off Rolexes to sucker Times Square tourists off the back of a truck. Alas, this nation has a lot of sucker tourists.

I digress.

The Door Dash delivery person is named Sharon Simmons. She lives in Nevada, not Washington, D.C. To be honest, I not even sure whether she works for Door Dash. Last year, by sheer coincidence, she appeared at a 2025 GOP field hearing, where she spoke about how Republican tax policies would impact her family …

Of all the Door Dash delivery people …

In short, the whole White House thing was all a setup. All a con. The Trump Lemming Association found someone to play Dress Up Delivery Person. They flew her to Washington. Gave her some dough and instructions—then escorted her to the door, where she’d be greeted by the president.

It was lazy and contrived and stupid; another reminder that these folks are as incompetent as they are moronic. And, of course, lost in the whole grotesque carnival act was that this prop of a woman was either: A. Lying about having a husband with cancer and needing the extra tip dough to pay for his care or B. So (heartbreakingly) desperate for money to help her husband with cancer treatment that she needs her tips increased.

Which (hmm) would be a tremendous indictment of a let-them-eat-cake president who has shown zero regard for improving health care coverage for struggling Americans, and only cares for himself.

Either way, it blows.

PS:

April 14, 2026

There are signs the political game has changed in the United States since Hungarian voters rejected Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s leadership on Sunday, April 12. His party’s loss of control of the government to a supermajority of its opponents undermined the belief that right-wing authoritarianism was an unstoppable force in world politics. Since MAGA Republicans had tied themselves to Orbán and his movement, his loss also weakened their own claims to inevitable victory over those trying to protect democracy.

On Sunday night, President Donald J. Trump appeared to melt down on social media. In The Atlantic today, Tom Nichols noted that Trump’s “emotional state seems to be fraying: This weekend, he attacked Pope Leo XIV, presented himself as Jesus Christ, and then jabbed at his phone until dawn.” Nichols notes that after Trump attacked the Pope and portrayed himself as Jesus, he posted an AI version of a Trump Tower on the moon. (“Sure,” Nichols writes. “Why not?”)

Then Trump posted a meme of how senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and former president Joe Biden all look old—unlike Trump—and then posted clips from Newsmax. The postings continued throughout the night. “This is not the behavior of a stable, healthy leader,” Nichols writes. “The American people must not look away…. They must pay attention to the president’s deterioration, and insist that the House and Senate start acting like functioning branches of the government by asking the White House to explain what is happening, without insults or evasions, before the eyes of the country and the world.”

Trump has tried to explain away the AI image he posted on social media on Sunday depicting himself as Jesus, clothed in robes, bathed in radiant light, and apparently healing a man in bed. After an extraordinary outcry over the image from his evangelical Christian followers, he took the image down, telling reporters “I thought it was me as a doctor” and claiming that “only the fake news” could suggest the image showed him as Jesus. He added: “I do make people better.”

With the House back in session today, Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD), the top-ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, introduced a bill to establish an independent commission to evaluate the president’s mental state. The Twenty-fifth Amendment to the Constitution establishes a process by which either a majority of the Cabinet or a majority of a body created by Congress to evaluate the president’s fitness can declare that a president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” In a press release, Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee expressed concern about “Trump’s escalating erratic conduct.” The bill has fifty Democratic co-sponsors.

“Public trust in Donald Trump’s ability to meet the duties of his office has dropped to unprecedented lows as he threatens to destroy entire civilizations, unleashes chaos in the Middle East while violating Congressional war powers, aggressively insults the Pope of the Catholic Church and sends out artistic renderings online likening himself to Jesus Christ. We are at a dangerous precipice, and it is now a matter of national security for Congress to fulfill its responsibilities under the 25th Amendment to protect the American people from an increasingly volatile and unstable situation,” Raskin said in a statement.

Trump’s deteriorating mental state has become impossible to overlook, but Republicans are making excuses for it. Cabinet members, who owe their positions to Trump and who likely recognize they will never rise to such power again in a merit-based system, will probably not question Trump’s mental acuity. But Raskin’s measure will force Republicans in Congress either to vote for an independent commission to evaluate Trump or to own his increasingly erratic behavior themselves.

Today, when asked if he were comfortable with Trump’s threat of last week that an entire civilization would die if it did not meet his demands, Senate majority leader John Thune (R-SD) changed the subject by saying: “You’ve got to…look at what the president is doing, and I think right now he’s trying to open the Strait of Hormuz, which…we are all supportive of.” The strait was, of course, open before Trump attacked Iran.

The Lincoln Project accused Republicans of “ignoring Trump’s sharp mental decline the same way they’ve ignored his crimes.”

Trump’s erratic behavior has led the U.S. into disaster by striking Iran, which in turn attacked its neighbors and closed the Strait of Hormuz. After unsuccessfully bullying other nations to force Iran to reopen the strait to all ships, not just to those of certain nations, Trump last week declared a ceasefire and a framework for an agreement, then suggested the U.S. and Iran would together manage the strait. When Iran continued to maintain control of it, Trump announced the U.S. would blockade the strait to make sure no ships at all could cross through it, with the idea that the U.S. can withstand the economic pain that closure will cause for a longer time than Iran can.

Data released today show that wholesale inflation has risen to 4%, the highest annual rate in three years. Today Marta Pacheco of EuroNews reported that the last of the vessels that left the Strait of Hormuz before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran have reached Europe. Analysts expect a new surge in energy prices. In Talking Points Memo today, David Kurtz points out that the economic mess in which the U.S., and the world, finds itself is entirely Trump’s fault. The trade wars, unjustified war in the Middle East, and attacks on U.S. science, universities, and immigration that are throttling economic growth are all a product of Trump’s personal choices.

As the war enters its seventh week, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said today that Senate Democrats will repeatedly force votes on war powers resolutions designed to force Trump to get congressional authorization before any further military action in Iran. “Forty-five days into this war, Congress has been sidelined because our Republican colleagues refuse to take a strong stand against this war and duck it completely because they’re afraid of Trump,” Schumer ​said today.

Thune and other Republicans countered with the belief that the war won’t go on much longer, and they support Trump’s actions.

Today former attorney general Pam Bondi was scheduled to testify under oath before the House Oversight and Reform Committee about the Department of Justice’s handling of the release of the Epstein files. The DOJ has released only about half of those files despite a law requiring it to produce them all no later than December 19 of last year. Many of the records it did release are heavily redacted, despite the very few and very specific conditions under which Congress allowed such redactions.

Bondi did not show up.

The Department of Justice is taking the position that since she was subpoenaed as attorney general and no longer holds that position, the subpoena was no longer in force.

Democrats on the committee disagree.

Representative Jasmine Crockett (D-TX), who was a prosecutor before she entered the House, posted: “Pam Bondi refused to show up for today’s Oversight deposition—defying our lawful subpoena. We couldn’t care less that she was fired from her job as Attorney General. She is responsible for leading the White House cover-up of the Epstein files. Since she didn’t show up, Oversight Democrats will move to hold her in contempt of Congress. The survivors deserve justice—and we will get answers. Enough is enough.”

Representative Robert Garcia (D-CA), the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee, told the Weeknight: “People have to be held accountable for the laws that we pass in the Congress and the subpoenas that we put in place.”

Notes:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/us/politics/trump-jesus-picture-pope-leo.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-rallies-round-pope-trump-attack-tests-ties-with-meloni-2026-04-13/

https://democrats-judiciary.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/ranking-member-raskin-introduces-legislation-establishing-independent-commission-on-presidential-capacity

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5830863-raskin-bill-25th-amendment/

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/trump-pope-post-truth-social/686802/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/14/economy/us-ppi-wholesale-inflation-march

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/04/14/energy-prices-set-to-rise-as-last-gulf-tankers-reach-europe-analysts-say

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-democrats-will-try-try-again-rein-trumps-iran-war-powers-2026-04-14/

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/morning-memo/trumps-corruption-is-whats-tanking-the-economy

X:

harryjsisson/status/2043627709553692942

Bluesky:

crockett.house.gov/post/3mji5byhngc22

acyn.bsky.social/post/3mjfcur5bhu2j

atrupar.com/post/3mjhz4v7vmh2o

andrewsolender.bsky.social/post/3mjhr43ywvc2f

robertgarcia.house.gov/post/3mjipmupnyc26

lincolnproject.us/post/3mjhzzolkxp2i

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Politics Chat, April 14, 2026

Politics Chat, April 14, 2026

The Venetian empire and the Mongols (modeling Marco Polo)

In contrast, the Polo brothers who went to Asia, Niccolo the elder and Matteo the elder, amassed wealth both in tangible and intangible assets.  It was Marco “the voyager” who benefited most from the family business, both as the heir to substantial portions of the family estate, and as a shrewd and cautious — and perhaps tight-fisted — private investor.  His will and inventory of his assets reveal a considerable amount of cash, real estate, and valuables.  Marco Polo traveled for business even after he returned to Venice, but not for long.  After 1300, although he continued to invest in various enterprises, it appears that Marco stayed in Venice.  Perhaps this was due to his advancing age (he turned fifty in 1304), although his energy was most likely taken up by overseeing his interests and local investments, and abo ve all in publicity for his book.  He commissioned numerous copies to be distributed to powerful and influential people.

And:

However, Marco had great difficulty leaving the empire.  The Polos required the khan’s consent not only to be given official leave, but above all to have adequate protection.  As Marco recounts, despite thee riches they had accumulated, they were not free to leave.  By then, the khan had also grown old, and they were concerned that he might die, leaving their fate in the hands of his successor, who may not have granted the necessary permits.  Marco’s account reveals that the three Polos had a subservient relationship with the khan, as they were in the khan’s service and depended on him.  He continually rejected their pleas to return to Venice, as he “loved them too much” and could not accept the idea that they should leave him.

That is all from the new and noteworthy Venice and the Mongols: The Eurasian Exchange that Transformed the Medieval World, by Nicola di Cosmo and Lorenzo Pubblici.

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Are we underestimating youth well-being?

Although there is growing evidence that the subjective wellbeing among the young declined in recent years, the evidence is not consistent across surveys. We examine the relationship between age and various measures of wellbeing and illbeing across three major surveys – the Gallup World Poll (GWP, Global Minds (GM) and the Global Flourishing Survey (GFS). The GWP is conducted via face-to-face and telephone surveys; GM surveys are web-based; and GFS uses both telephone and web-based surveys. We focus on 23 countries appearing in all three surveys. The clearest evidence that wellbeing rises with age and illbeing declines with age comes from the web-based surveys in both GM and GFS. The age profiles look very different when surveys are conducted by telephone: the higher rates of illbeing among the young are far less apparent in these surveys. Because survey mode is not randomly assigned, we cannot be sure differences in age profiles of wellbeing and illbeing are causally affected by survey mode. Selection into survey mode, both across and within country, plus differential non-response by survey across the age range, may be playing a role. However, the evidence indicates very different age patterns in wellbeing and illbeing emerge across different survey modes.

That is from a new NBER working paper by David G. Blanchflower and Alex Bryson.

The post Are we underestimating youth well-being? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Contours of the James Bay Lowlands

A snowy landscape in northern Canada reveals frozen river channels as well as ridges parallel to the shore of an icy bay in the upper right.
March 26, 2026

Early spring around Hudson Bay in northern Canada is largely indistinguishable from winter. Sea ice still clings to land, and the boggy lowlands remain frozen. In the dulled tones of the boreal landscape, however, snow helps accentuate the area’s subtle topography. In late March 2026, an astronaut aboard the International Space Station captured this photo of frozen channels feeding Hannah Bay—a southern offshoot of James Bay, which is itself an extension of Hudson Bay.

Some of the patterns visible in the photo relate to the region’s ice age history. During the Pleistocene Epoch, the Laurentide Ice Sheet covered most of present-day Canada. It centered on Hudson Bay, where its immense weight depressed the land. Since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20,000 years ago, the ice has retreated and the land has been bouncing back. Glacial isostatic adjustment, or isostatic rebound, is relatively rapid around southern Hudson Bay; the surface continues to rise about 10 millimeters (0.4 inches) per year, or 1 meter per century.

The process has left a fingerprint on the newly emerged land. In this photo, faint, closely spaced ridges parallel the shore of ice-covered James Bay at the terminus of the Harricana river. These beach ridges formed from tidal action reworking sands and silts along the shore, with newer ridges developing along the water as land rises and relative sea level drops.

The Harricana and adjacent waterways flow through boreal peat bogs, or muskeg, in the Hudson Bay Lowlands on their journey out to sea. As the world’s second largest peatland complex, the lowlands store significant amounts of soil carbon. Elsewhere around the bay, the landscape retains features carved by glaciers, such as drumlins and eskers.

With the approach of summer, the muted colors of the frozen months give way to a more varied palette. Peatlands take on a lush, green appearance, and partially decayed organic matter in the peat releases tannins that stain the water dark brown like a strong tea. Sea ice that has remained attached to the James Bay shoreline for several months typically begins to break up in mid- to late-May, with melting complete by the end of July.

Astronaut photograph ISS074-E-417241 was acquired on March 26, 2026, with a Nikon Z9 digital camera using a focal length of 200 millimeters. It was provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA Johnson Space Center. The image was taken by a member of the Expedition 74 crew. The image has been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

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The post Contours of the James Bay Lowlands appeared first on NASA Science.

Amazon to Acquire Globalstar, Announces Agreement With Apple to Continue Service for iPhone and Apple Watch

Amazon:

Today Amazon.com, Inc. and Globalstar, Inc. announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Amazon will acquire Globalstar, enabling Amazon Leo to add direct-to-device (D2D) services to its low Earth orbit satellite network and extend cellular coverage to customers beyond the reach of terrestrial networks. In addition, Amazon and Apple announced an agreement for Amazon Leo to power satellite services for iPhone and Apple Watch, including Emergency SOS via satellite. [...]

Greg Joswiak, quoted in Amazon’s press release:

“Apple and Amazon have a long and proven track record of working together through Amazon’s core infrastructure services, and we look forward to building on that collaboration with Amazon Leo. This ensures our users will continue to have access to the vital satellite features they have come to rely on, including Emergency SOS, Messages, Find My, and Roadside Assistance via satellite, so they can stay safe and connected while off the grid.”

The Verge’s headline catches my initial reaction: “Apple and Amazon Are Teaming Up to Challenge Starlink’s Smartphone Ambitions”. Apple owned a 20 percent stake in Globalstar, so they were more than a bystander. But I think the deal speaks to the fact that amongst the tech titans, Apple and Amazon are more allies than rivals.

 ★ 

John Calhoun on Steve Lemay

Speaking of John Calhoun, he chimed in on a Hacker News thread last month regarding his experience working with Steve Lemay at Apple:

I think Steve Lemay is a good guy. I kind of fought with him when I was an engineer, he was a young, new designer (at Apple). But I always respected his point of view — even when we argued.

When Jobs came back to Apple in the latter 1990’s “Design” slowly came to have an outsized role. I was one half of the engineering team that owned Preview (the application) when Steve Lemay became a seemingly regular presence in the hallway. As the new “Aqua” UI elements arrived in the OS like the “drawer” and toolbar, Steve and his boss (forgetting his name right now — Greg Somebody?) were often making calls about our UI implementation.

I guarantee that was Greg Christie, who is in my opinion the least-known-but-most-missed person at Apple.

Steve Lemay insisted the drawer live on the right side of the window. This was inexplicable to me. I saw the layout of Preview as hierarchical: the left side of the content driving the right side. You click a thumbnail on the left (in the drawer) the window content on the right changes to reflect the thumbnail clicked on.

Steve said, no, drawer on the right.

“Why? Why the hell would we do that?”

Steve was quick: “The Preview app is about the content. The content is king.”

I admit that I still disagreed with him after the exchange, but I had a new respect for him as a designer because he was able to articulate a rationale for his decision. I suppose I was prejudiced to expect hand-waving from designers.

It’s a good sign when you lose an argument but gain respect for those arguing the opposing side. (And, Calhoun notes, the Preview sidebar eventually did move to the left, after split views replaced drawers in AppKit.)

(Addendum: Steve also invented the early Safari URL text field that also doubled as a progress bar. Instant hate from me when I saw it: it was as if the text of the URL you entered was being selected as the page loaded. So I’m old-school and Steve had some new ideas…)

I had the same reaction as Calhoun when I first wrote about Safari, two days after it was announced and released as a public beta at Macworld Expo in January 2003. (That was a year before I created Markdown, so I had to edit raw HTML just now to update a few broken links to working versions at the Internet Archive.) I wrote then:

Progress Bar Behind Location Field
Hideous. It looks like partially-selected text. Please scrap it.

But by 2009, reviewing the public beta of Safari 4, I had changed my mind, and admitted I was wrong in my initial assessment of the progress-bar-in-location-field combo control:

But I quickly grew accustomed to it, and soon grew to miss it when using other browsers. It was, I soon decided, a damn clever way to show progress in a way that was prominent while the page was actually loading, and without taking up any additional space on the screen after loading was complete.

That innovation is a nice feather in Lemay’s cap.

 ★ 

Richard Moss’s 2010 Interview With John Calhoun on the Origins of Glider

Richard Moss, back in 2010:

John Calhoun’s Glider games hold a special place in the history of Mac gaming, acting almost as an icon of the platform through much of the 1990s. They spawned a hugely dedicated fan base, which produced a ridiculous amount of original content both for and about Glider — especially Glider 4 and Glider PRO, the later versions.

I caught up with Calhoun over email recently, and quizzed him on the origins and development of the series. This is the first part of that interview. Read on to discover where the idea for Glider originated, how the game came to exist, and how it dramatically altered Calhoun’s future.

Here’s the updated working link to part 2 of the interview, and to Moss’s feature story, “Dreaming of a Thousand-Room House: The History and Making of Glider”. The links to those pages in part 1 of the interview are both out of date and result in 404s.

Moss, of course, is the author of the excellent book The Secret History of Mac Gaming, which features an entire chapter on Calhoun and Glider, aptly titled “Quintessentially Mac”.

 ★ 

Glider Is Back in the Mac App Store

John Calhoun, on Bluesky (and also a new blog):

I re-made Glider some years back for MacOS/iOS. It broke at some point (perhaps an Apple change for Retina displays?) so I pulled it from the App Store.

(Claude looked at the code — found some minor coordinate issues. Thanks!) Glider Classic for MacOS is back on.

11 years between version 1.0.4 and yesterday’s 1.1 looks like a long time. But when you consider that Calhoun shipped the original Glider back in 1988, that puts things in perspective. If you’ve never used Glider, it remains an all-time great procrastination utility. There aren’t many Mac apps still in development from that era.

(Calhoun, you will recall, in addition to making a slew of early Mac games, went on to a long career as an engineer at Apple, where, amongst other things, he worked on Preview for many years. He now makes cool personal projects like SystemSix and this excellent model of the Pan Am Orion that was in some old movie.)

 ★ 

Fraudulent Cryptocurrency App in Mac App Store Stole $9.5 Million From 50-Some Users

Molly White, at Web3 Is Going Just Great:

After a fake version of the Ledger cryptocurrency wallet app made it onto the normally highly curated Apple App store, customers lost $9.5 million dollars to the malicious product. Believing it was a genuine Ledger product, people entered their seed phrases into the app, then discovered their wallets were immediately drained.

One victim, a musician who goes by G. Love, wrote: “I lost my retirement fund in a hack/Scam when I switched my Ledger over to my new computer and by accident downloaded a malicious ledger app from the Apple store. All my BTC gone in an instant.” According to him, he lost 5.9 BTC (~$445,000).

The legit (if that adjective can be used for cryptocurrency apps) Ledger Live Mac app is only available as a direct download from Ledger’s website. They also do have an app in the App Store, but it’s iPhone-only.

 ★ 

On the Name of Apple’s Foldable iPhone

Tim Hardwick, last week at MacRumors:

Apple’s first foldable iPhone may not carry the speculative media-derived “Fold” branding after all, according to Chinese leaker Digital Chat Station. In a new post on Weibo, the oft-accurate leaker claimed that Apple’s book-style foldable could launch as the “iPhone Ultra.” Meanwhile, domestic Chinese manufacturers are allegedly deciding whether to follow Apple’s lead by tentatively branding their own upcoming foldables as “Ultra” models, but likely with a lighter price tag — Apple’s version is expected to cost between $2,000 and $2,500.

I have no inside knowledge about what Apple plans to name this device, but I’ll eat my proverbial hat if they name it “iPhone Fold”. That name is so dumb it’s what Samsung calls their foldables. You don’t name a device for what it does, you name it for what it connotes. A good name conveys feeling, not just function. “iPhone Ultra” or “iPhone Max” would both work, and Ultra sounds more luxe. So while unsurprising, that’s probably the best bet, even without the reliable word of Mr. Digital Chat Station.

But if you want my take on a wildcard name, one with some history, how about “iPhone Duo”?

 ★ 

Speaking of Tips

The Houston Chronicle:

Kristin Tips, the longtime presiding officer of the embattled Texas Funeral Service Commission, is no longer on the board. “Governor Abbott appreciates Kristin Tips’ service,” Andrew Mahaleris, Abbott’s press secretary, said in an email Tuesday. “An announcement on a replacement will be made at a later date.” [...]

Tips, who has run San Antonio’s prestigious Mission Park Funeral Chapels, Cemeteries & Crematories with her husband, Dick Tips, was appointed to the board by the governor in 2017 and made the presiding officer in May 2024. Tips did not respond to a request for comment.

I don’t have any questions for her, but I have at least one for her husband.

 ★ 

Apple Has Hidden the Pre-Creator-Studio Versions of Keynote, Numbers, and Pages in the Mac App Store

Ryan Christoffel, 9to5Mac:

On the iPhone and iPad, Apple made the new Creator Studio features available as updates to the existing App Store releases.

On the Mac though, the rollout was a lot more confusing. Apple kept the old iWork apps for Mac available on the App Store and launched entirely separate iWork versions with the Creator Studio features. Starting today, though, that oddity is no more. Per Aaron Perris, Apple has officially removed the old Pages, Keynote, and Numbers apps from the App Store.

If you’ve previously downloaded these apps, you’ll still find them in your download history and can re-download from there. But new users will only see one option on the App Store: the Creator Studio-compatible apps.

One reason — perhaps the reason? — this was necessarily more complex on MacOS is that the iWork apps used to have different bundle identifiers on iOS and Mac. On the Mac, the old (classic?) version of Keynote has the bundle identifier com.apple.iWork.Keynote. On iOS, it was always just com.apple.Keynote, without the iWork part. To make the single-subscription bundle work across both platforms, Apple seemingly needed to unify the bundle IDs, and they unified them using the iOS versions, sans the iWork part. The new Creator Studio versions of the Mac apps now have the same bundle IDs as the iOS versions. You can see this using Terminal, if, like me, you currently have both versions of these apps installed side-by-side:

% mdls -name kMDItemCFBundleIdentifier -r \
    /Applications/Numbers.app 

Result: com.apple.iWork.Numbers

% mdls -name kMDItemCFBundleIdentifier -r \
    /Applications/Numbers\ Creator\ Studio.app

Result: com.apple.Numbers

You can also see from the above that while the display names for the new versions remain just “Keynote”, “Numbers”, and “Pages”, the actual names of the .app bundles in the file system are now “Keynote Creator Studio.app”, “Numbers Creator Studio.app”, and “Pages Creator Studio.app”. That’s how two apps that both appear to have the same name can exist next to each other in the same Applications folder.

I’ll leave the final word to Basic Apple Guy:

Goodbye Keynote, Numbers, and Pages, and long live Keynote: Design Presentations, Numbers: Make Spreadsheets, and Pages: Create Documents

 ★ 

West Coast SpaceX Falcon 9 mission launches 25 Starlink satellites

A Falcon 9 rocket stands poised to launch from the Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. File Photo: SpaceX

SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California Tuesday night. The rocket carryied another 25 satellites for its Starlink internet service.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East happened at 9:29:49 p.m. PDT (12:29:49 a.m. EDT / 04:29:49 UTC). The Falcon 9 departed from the central California coast on a southerly trajectory, targeting an orbit of 258 x 246 km, with a 97-degree inclination.

The Starlink 17-27 mission was SpaceX’s 46th Falcon 9 launch of the year and used a first-stage booster making its 21st flight. Booster B1082 entered the SpaceX fleet in January 2024 and has already launched 17 previous Starlink delivery missions. It also flew the USSF-62, OneWeb Launch 20, and NROL-145 missions.

A little more than eight minutes after liftoff, the first stage landedon the drone ship, ‘Of Course I Still Love You,’ positioned in the Pacific Ocean. The 25 Starlink V2 Mini satellites stacked atop the second stage deployed about an hour into flight.

Chinese Electrotech is the Big Winner in the Iran War

China's BYD to assemble EVs in Pakistan from 2026 | Reuters

Donald Trump wants to stop the renewable energy revolution. But he can’t — it will continue to advance around the world because the economics and the science are compelling. Trump can, however, ensure that the revolution passes us by. And the big geopolitical winner from Trump’s hostility to the energy revolution will be China, which dominates the production of renewable-energy infrastructure.

Furthermore, the China-led energy future will arrive ahead of schedule thanks to the debacle in Iran.

Soaring oil and gas prices, combined with the threat of shortages, have driven home the riskiness of relying on fossil fuels. The New York Times had a striking graphic about electricity prices in Europe:

A map of europe with countries/regions and names

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

France and Spain, which mostly generate electricity from non-fossil sources (including nuclear power in France), have been partially insulated from the war’s side effects. Italy, heavily reliant on gas, has suffered badly.

Also, Trump’s decision to counter Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by blockading the Strait of Hormuz surely adds to the perception that relying on U.S. oil and LNG, which is what countries will have to do if they don’t turn to solar and wind, isn’t safe. Who can guarantee that an erratic America won’t try to weaponize other countries’ dependence on our energy?

So Trump’s adventurism in Iran has sparked a global rush to invest in solar power, wind power, and the batteries that make renewable energy work 24/7.

And where will the world procure most of the renewable energy equipment it seeks? From China. China is the workshop of the world. Its manufacturing sector is larger than those of the U.S., Japan, Germany and South Korea combined.

While China is strong in many industries, it is utterly dominant in electrotech, the cluster of industries — solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles — at the heart of the renewables revolution. Or as the Wall Street Journal puts it, China’s “green industrial complex” rules. China accounts for more than 80 percent of global production in all these sectors with the exception of wind turbines. In the wind turbine sector, China’s share is “only” 60 percent because Europe retains a significant role.

Why does China dominate electrotech? Industrial policy — deliberate government promotion of these industries — is part of the answer. But a key driver of China’s success has been the speed with which the Chinese themselves have been adopting renewable energy, creating a huge domestic market that provides their electrotech industries with big advantages even in foreign markets.

There’s a widespread, completely erroneous belief among opponents of renewable energy that China produces electrotech equipment but doesn’t use the stuff itself. Speaking at the World Economic Forum three months ago, Trump declared that

China makes almost all of the windmills and yet I haven’t been able to find any wind farms in China. Did you ever think of that? That’s a good way of looking at it. They’re smart, China’s very smart. They make them, they sell them for a fortune. They sell them to the stupid people that buy them, but they don’t use them themselves. They put up a couple of big wind farms, but they don’t use them, they just put them up to show people what they could look like. They don’t spin; they don’t do anything. They use a thing called coal mostly.

China does, in fact, still burn a lot of coal. But its use of wind and solar power is rising rapidly. The demand for solar panels, wind turbines and batteries depends on the increase in renewable generation rather than its level. And China’s growth in renewable energy, both wind and solar, has been larger than that of the rest of the world combined:

A blue bar with black text

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: Our World in Data

China also accounts for more than 60 percent of world sales of electric cars:

A blue rectangle with black text

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: Our World in Data

And electrotech is exactly the kind of industry in which a large domestic market translates into success at exporting into other markets. For all of the component industries of electrotech are marked by steep learning curves: the more a country produces, the better it gets at producing. By dominating electrotech now, China is gaining experience and know-how that no other country can match. It is also creating an industrial ecosystem of specialized suppliers that, again, no other nation will be able to rival. And the low costs generated by this industrial ecosystem gives China a huge advantage in global markets.

Under President Biden the United States took much needed steps toward developing its own electrotech sectors, notably batteries and electric vehicles. It also sought to accelerate the growth of renewable energy in general. But not only has the Trump administration canceled all of Biden’s renewable energy programs, it is also actively trying to block private commercial investments in renewable energy.

By the time America frees itself from Trump’s fossil fuel obsession, if it ever does, China’s lead in the manufacture of renewables will probably be insurmountable.

Now, a world that relies on China for solar panels and batteries isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s certainly less risky for most nations, politically and economically, than relying on LNG imports from Qatar — or, at this point, the United States.

Furthermore, although the Trump administration is full of climate denialists, climate change is continuing. March was a record warm month in the United States:

Map of the U.S. showing temperature percentiles for March 2026 with warmer areas in gradients of red and cooler areas in gradients of blue.

Given the rate at which the planet is warming, a shift away from fossil fuels can’t come fast enough. Where the equipment needed to make that shift happen was manufactured is a secondary issue.

Yet it’s sad to watch this country sabotage itself and cede the most important industry of the future to China. In doing so, we make ourselves poorer, technologically backward, and less influential in a world that is speeding towards the energy revolution. In the end, we aren’t just burning fossil fuels; we’re also burning our future.

MUSICAL CODA

datasette PR #2689: Replace token-based CSRF with Sec-Fetch-Site header protection

datasette PR #2689: Replace token-based CSRF with Sec-Fetch-Site header protection

Datasette has long protected against CSRF attacks using CSRF tokens, implemented using my asgi-csrf Python library. These are something of a pain to work with - you need to scatter forms in templates with <input type="hidden" name="csrftoken" value="{{ csrftoken() }}"> lines and then selectively disable CSRF protection for APIs that are intended to be called from outside the browser.

I've been following Filippo Valsorda's research here with interest, described in this detailed essay from August 2025 and shipped as part of Go 1.25 that same month.

I've now landed the same change in Datasette. Here's the PR description - Claude Code did much of the work (across 10 commits, closely guided by me and cross-reviewed by GPT-5.4) but I've decided to start writing these PR descriptions by hand, partly to make them more concise and also as an exercise in keeping myself honest.

  • New CSRF protection middleware inspired by Go 1.25 and this research by Filippo Valsorda. This replaces the old CSRF token based protection.
  • Removes all instances of <input type="hidden" name="csrftoken" value="{{ csrftoken() }}"> in the templates - they are no longer needed.
  • Removes the def skip_csrf(datasette, scope): plugin hook defined in datasette/hookspecs.py and its documentation and tests.
  • Updated CSRF protection documentation to describe the new approach.
  • Upgrade guide now describes the CSRF change.

Tags: csrf, security, datasette, ai-assisted-programming

Trusted access for the next era of cyber defense

Trusted access for the next era of cyber defense

OpenAI's answer to Claude Mythos appears to be a new model called GPT-5.4-Cyber:

In preparation for increasingly more capable models from OpenAI over the next few months, we are fine-tuning our models specifically to enable defensive cybersecurity use cases, starting today with a variant of GPT‑5.4 trained to be cyber-permissive: GPT‑5.4‑Cyber.

They're also extending a program they launched in February (which I had missed) called Trusted Access for Cyber, where users can verify their identity (via a photo of a government-issued ID processed by Persona) to gain "reduced friction" access to OpenAI's models for cybersecurity work.

Honestly, this OpenAI announcement is difficult to follow. Unsurprisingly they don't mention Anthropic at all, but much of the piece emphasizes their many years of existing cybersecurity work and their goal to "democratize access" to these tools, hence the emphasis on that self-service verification flow from February.

If you want access to their best security tools you still need to go through an extra Google Form application process though, which doesn't feel particularly different to me from Anthropic's Project Glasswing.

Via Hacker News

Tags: security, ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, ai-security-research

Cybersecurity Looks Like Proof of Work Now

Cybersecurity Looks Like Proof of Work Now

The UK's AI Safety Institute recently published Our evaluation of Claude Mythos Preview’s cyber capabilities, their own independent analysis of Claude Mythos which backs up Anthropic's claims that it is exceptionally effective at identifying security vulnerabilities.

Drew Breunig notes that AISI's report shows that the more tokens (and hence money) they spent the better the result they got, which leads to a strong economic incentive to spend as much as possible on security reviews:

If Mythos continues to find exploits so long as you keep throwing money at it, security is reduced to a brutally simple equation: to harden a system you need to spend more tokens discovering exploits than attackers will spend exploiting them.

An interesting result of this is that open source libraries become more valuable, since the tokens spent securing them can be shared across all of their users. This directly counters the idea that the low cost of vibe-coding up a replacement for an open source library makes those open source projects less attractive.

Tags: open-source, ai, generative-ai, llms, drew-breunig, vibe-coding, ai-security-research

Tuesday 14 April 1663

Up betimes to my office, where busy till 8 o’clock that Sir W. Batten, Sir J. Minnes, Sir W. Pen and I down by barge to Woolwich, to see “The Royal James” launched, where she has been under repair a great while. We staid in the yard till almost noon, and then to Mr. Falconer’s to a dinner of fish of our own sending, and when it was just ready to come upon the table, word is brought that the King and Duke are come, so they all went away to shew themselves, while I staid and had a little dish or two by myself, resolving to go home, and by the time I had dined they came again, having gone to little purpose, the King, I believe, taking little notice of them. So they to dinner, and I staid a little with them, and so good bye. I walked to Greenwich, studying the slide rule for measuring of timber, which is very fine. Thence to Deptford by water, and walked through the yard, and so walked to Redriffe, and so home pretty weary, to my office, where anon they all came home, the ship well launched, and so sat at the office till 9 at night, and I longer doing business at my office, and so home to supper, my father being come, and to bed.

Sir G. Carteret tells me to-night that he perceives the Parliament is likely to make a great bustle before they will give the King any money; will call all things into question; and, above all, the expences of the Navy; and do enquire into the King’s expences everywhere, and into the truth of the report of people being forced to sell their bills at 15 per cent. loss in the Navy; and, lastly, that they are in a very angry pettish mood at present, and not likely to be better.

Read the annotations

Apple Denies Removing Lebanese Towns and Villages from Apple Maps

Claims circulating on social media that Apple erased towns and villages in southern Lebanon from Apple Maps as a kind of support for the Israeli invasion are not true, says Apple. Apple’s coverage of Lebanon… More

The Physics of GPS

Shri Khalpada explains the physics of GPS. “GPS is fundamentally a translation tool: it converts time into distance. A satellite sends a signal, your phone catches it, and the delay between those two events tells… More

Links 4/14/26

Links for you. Science:

Scientists Discover Giant ‘Cavity’ Beyond Earth That Isn’t Supposed to Exist
Large Hadron Collider Discovers All-New Particle
The US has a scientific breakthrough problem
Beavers can turn streams into carbon stores – we measured how much
Tumbleweeds can be so bad in the Great Plains that they bury homes and cause fire danger
Genetic diversification of Pseudomonas fluorescens maintained by multi-niche selection within biofilms

Other:

This Election Is Too Darn Important To Be Left To Merciful Salad Eaters
The Birthright Con
Why return to office policies are all pain and no gain
Pete Hegseth Just Revealed the Real Roots of His Sadism and Rage
Kristi Noem weighs in on report husband lives cross-dressing double life: ‘The family was blindsided by this’
Trump’s Iran war is holding him hostage
Federal Judge Approves Trump Effort to Obtain List of Jews From Penn
Army Suspends Aircrew After Bonkers Kid Rock Helicopter Stunt
Sackets Harbor hotel, marina owner tells border czar Tom Homan he’s not welcome
Trump’s Ballroom Design Has Barely Been Scrutinized
I Was AIPAC’s Number 1 Target—and I Beat Them. Here’s How to Do It.
Olympics Committee Punishes Trans & Cis Women
War After War Turns Young Israelis to Religion
The Effects of California’s $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage on Prices
Oklahoma city council members welcomed a Google data center. Now they face a recall.
Who Gets to Live in a Single-Family Home?
The People Trump Pardoned Are on a Crime Spree
U.S. could exempt oil industry from protecting Gulf animals, for ‘national security’
The world’s dumbest tariff has been revealed. Aluminum prices soar as Trump’s protectionism worsens shortages amid Iran war
For the Love of God, Stop Talking About 2028
Kristi Noem ‘Devastated’ by Report of Husband Bryon’s ‘Double Life’ Dressing as a Woman
A Fifth of NYC Built on Bygone Water Now at Risk: Study Maps City’s ‘Blue Zones’
Trump’s MAGA allies have a new plan for mass deportations. It could splinter the coalition.
‘BLOCKADE’: The Right Is Using AI Content Scanners to Try to Supercharge Book Banning
A D.C. transportation success story is about to be bulldozed — literally
US Forest Service to move headquarters from Washington DC to Salt Lake City
I Asked ChatGPT What WIRED’s Reviewers Recommend. Its Answers Were All Wrong
Need for Tax Optimization, Liquidity Could Change ‘Endowment Model’
Sweden goes back to basics, swapping screens for books in the classroom
Is the 14th amendment unconstitutional? Views differ

The Staggering Ignorance of Trump Administration Officials: the Drug-Resistant TB Edition

Over at The Handbasket, Marisa Kabas has a terrifying excerpt about Trump administration officials’ ignorance of basic biology from Nicholas Enrich’s new book, Into the Wood Chipper: A Whistleblower’s Account of How the Trump Administration Shredded USAID (boldface mine):

The first question came from Adam Korzeniewski, a veteran of the first Trump administration where he served short stints with the departments of Treasury and Commerce. Adam, the White House liaison to USAID, wanted to know more about the risks associated with interruptions to TB clinical trials, which I had mentioned in my overview…

Some of the studies are testing new treatment regimens for drug- resistant tuberculosis,” I explained, hoping I could convey the very real danger in terms that would register with this audience. “Thousands of enrolled patients are at risk now that their lifesaving treatment is stopped. But that’s not the only danger. We only have limited options to treat drug- resistant TB. We’re using our antibiotics of last resort in these trials. Interrupting treatment midstream risks the development of new, even more drug-resistant strains that could be untreatable. For an airborne infectious disease, that is a serious national security risk.”

Adam thought for a moment and then responded, noting that the political appointees at USAID were “not health people.” It would be hard, he surmised, for nonexperts to understand this issue. And so he suggested that we draft a simple, “Barney-style” set of slides to help the political leadership grasp the dangers, referring to the purple dinosaur of children’s television. He recommended that we use the term “Super TB” instead of “drug- resistant TB” to describe the mutations that can develop when treatment is interrupted, because it might be more likely to “catch their attention.”

Adam then made clear that he did not count himself among those political appointees who were not health experts. Though he had no relevant training or experience, he reassured me that he understood the severity of infectious diseases, noting that he had recently read a book about smallpox. Apparently he had watched movies as well.

“One thing I thought of while you were talking,” he added, gesticulating wildly with his hands to conjure the image in his mind. “If you can make one of those maps like they have in Outbreak, where it shows the red growing over time as the disease spreads? You know, like the zombie apocalypse? That would be great, very effective.

Here’s the thing about the concept of drug-resistant tuberculosis: it is described in the fucking name. It is tuberculosis that is resistant to some or all of the drugs (antibiotics) we use to treat the infection. If you do not understand this descriptive phrase, you do not belong anywhere near public health. And this is not some kind of academic elitism: not understanding this is like being a basketball player who cannot hit freethrows ever–if you cannot do that, you do not make the team. This level of ignorance is just stunning.

While I am not naive about other Republican administrations, at least they understood the basic concepts (as ideologues, they just often did not care about the policy implications).

Anyway, the only reason I might not buy this book is because it might give me an aneurysm.

Google Will Finally Begin Punishing Sites for Back-Button Hijacking in June

Google, on their Search Central Blog:

Today, we are expanding our spam policies to address a deceptive practice known as “back button hijacking”, which will become an explicit violation of the “malicious practices” of spam policies, leading to potential spam actions.

What is back button hijacking?
When a user clicks the “back” button in the browser, they have a clear expectation: they want to return to the previous page. Back button hijacking breaks this fundamental expectation. It occurs when a site interferes with a user’s browser navigation and prevents them from using their back button to immediately get back to the page they came from. Instead, users might be sent to pages they never visited before, be presented with unsolicited recommendations or ads, or are otherwise just prevented from normally browsing the web.

Why are we taking action?
We believe that the user experience comes first. Back button hijacking interferes with the browser’s functionality, breaks the expected user journey, and results in user frustration.

Good for Google to penalize sites playing such dirty tricks, but, if they believe the user experience comes first, why are they only addressing this now in 2026? Here’s a Reddit thread from 15 years ago: “Why the fuck do websites hijack the back button? Its fucking annoying”. And why are they waiting until June to enforce it? Penalize these dickheads now.

I don’t see much back-button hijacking personally, perhaps because I don’t visit sketchy websites, but this entire issue only exists because of JavaScript. If web pages were documents, this wouldn’t even be possible.

 ★ 

That was then, this is now

But despite the pitiful state into which the country had descended, the major outside powers, Russian and the Ottoman Empire, did not intervene as they had in 1722-1725.  It was partly that they were busy elsewhere, and surely also that the outcome of their previous attempts had not encouraged them to repeat the experiment.

That is from Michael Axworthy’s A History of Iran: Empire of the Mind, a good general introduction to the history of the country.

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Understanding When It Is Actually Legal to Turn Left on Red in Texas

Red lights are meant to signal a full stop on the road. In Texas, most drivers know they can make a right turn after stopping, as long as it’s safe and there are no signs saying otherwise. But when it comes to left turns, the rules are more limited, and that’s where confusion often comes in, especially at busy intersections.

This misunderstanding can lead to hesitation or even illegal turns that could result in a ticket. While the general rule is to wait for the light, Texas law does allow a specific exception in certain situations. Knowing when that applies can help you avoid mistakes and drive more confidently.

In Texas, a left turn on red is only allowed when you’re turning from a one-way street onto another one-way street, and only after coming to a complete stop and making sure the way is clear. Understanding this rule can help you stay safe, avoid citations, and handle these situations with more confidence on the road.

The One-Way to One-Way Rule and Geometric Constraints

The primary legal scenario for this maneuver involves a transition from one one-way street onto another one-way street. According to Texas law, a driver may cautiously enter an intersection to turn left against a red signal only if both the intersecting roads are designated for one-way traffic flow. This specific configuration minimizes the risk of a high-speed head-on collision because there is no oncoming traffic to contend with from the opposite direction today.

Navigating these junctions requires a high level of situational awareness to identify the correct flow of traffic before committing to the turn. If either street allows two-way movement, the exception disappears immediately, and the red light remains a hard stop. It is a sign of a professional approach to driving to verify these details before moving through the intersection.

Failure to identify the one-way status leads to dangerous errors on the road. High standards in observation lead to stable results. Reclaiming your peace starts with facts. Standards lead to predictable results for your family’s future security and your successful environment. High standards lead to results. Success is built on a foundation of facts, strategy, and quality. High standards lead to more results for your family.

The Full Stop Requirement and Pedestrian Yielding Protocols

Before initiating any turn on a red signal, the law mandates that the vehicle must come to a complete and total halt. This is not a “rolling stop” or a slow crawl; your tires must cease all motion behind the marked limit line or crosswalk. This pause allows you to evaluate the safety of the junction and ensure that no other vehicles are approaching the area.

Yielding to all pedestrians and cross-traffic is the most critical part of the turning sequence. Even if you are legally permitted to turn, you do not have the right-of-way over those who have a green signal. You must wait for a gap that is large enough to complete the move without forcing others to brake. Respecting the safety of walkers is a primary professional duty for every Texas driver.

Bypassing these yielding rules is a sign of reckless behavior that leads to collisions. High standards in patience lead to more stable results. Reclaiming your safety starts with facts. Standards lead to predictable results for your family’s future security and your healthy environment. Success is built on a foundation of strategy. High standards lead to more results. Trusting the facts leads to results for your family and peace.

Summary of Verification Steps to Avoid Traffic Charges

Summarizing the maneuver reveals that verifying the one-way status of both streets is the only way to avoid a “disregarding a traffic device” charge. You must be certain that you are not crossing over any lanes of opposing traffic during the movement. Taking an extra three seconds to confirm the road markings and signs can save you from a stressful interaction with law enforcement today.

If you are ever unsure of the legality, the safest choice is always to wait for the green light. A professional approach to the road values safety over a few seconds of saved time during a rush. By following these disciplined steps, you are protecting your record and contributing to a more predictable and safe environment for every Texas family. High standards lead to more successful and stable outcomes.

Ultimately, the goal is to navigate the streets with total confidence and legal certainty. By demanding high standards for your own driving habits, you are ensuring your success. Reclaiming your peace starts with facts. Standards lead to predictable results for your family’s future security. High standards lead to more results. Success is built on facts, strategy, and commitment. High standards lead to more stable results today.

Photo: Freepik via their website.


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President Trump signs legislation reauthorizing SBIR

COLORADO SPRINGS – President Donald Trump signed the Small Business Innovation and Economic Security Act April 13, reestablishing key sources of funding for early-stage space companies. The legislation reauthorizes the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs through Sept. 30, 2031, and enhances screening of applicants to ensure they do […]

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Washington agrees on space urgency, but not on how to deliver

Policymakers and industry warn that money alone won’t solve structural bottlenecks

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Q&A: Heather Pringle on what to expect from Space Symposium

The global space community is looking to build on a wave of momentum to expand its civil and national security sectors and sustain the industry’s resurgence well into the future. Heather Pringle, the Space Foundation’s chief executive officer and a retired Air Force major general, previewed the nonprofit’s annual Space Symposium, now in its 41st […]

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Phantom Space eyes edge in orbital data race with thermal deal

Rendering of a Phantom Space launch vehicle deploying the Phantom Cloud constellation. Credit: Phantom Space

Phantom Space believes it now has the key pieces of a vertically integrated model to compete on the edges of the emerging orbital data center market, where industry giants are already staking claims to meet soaring AI-driven demand. The Tucson, Arizona-based satellite and rocket developer recently acquired what it sees as a critical missing piece: […]

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Axiom Space plans 2027 flight test of spacesuit

AxEMU briefing

Axiom Space expects to test the spacesuit it is developing for Artemis lunar missions in space in 2027, either on the International Space Station or Artemis 3.

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AI and geopolitics spur space investment surge

AI advances and rising geopolitical tensions are helping usher in a new phase of investment in space infrastructure, according to quarterly research released April 14 by early-stage investor Space Capital.

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Tendeg Delivers First Antenna from New Industrial Production Facility, Targets 100+ Deployable Apertures Annually

Louisville, Colorado – Tendeg today announced the delivery of the first flight antenna manufactured at Innovation Drive, the company’s new 120,000-square-foot production facility built to support scaled production of deployable […]

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L3Harris investing upfront in bid for Golden Dome work

Sam Mehta: ‘We’ve invested hundreds of millions of dollars in inventory, getting long lead parts and components on order’

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Jielong-3 launches internet test satellite, Kinetica-1 lofts 8 remote sensing sats

A pair of solid rocket launches have added to China’s satellite internet and commercial remote sensing capabilities, sending a total of nine satellites into orbit.

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Amazon buys Globalstar to catapult into direct-to-device race

Amazon plans to buy satellite operator Globalstar in a deal valued at around $11 billion, marking its entry into the emerging market for providing connectivity directly to mobile phones and other cellular devices.

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BAE Systems introduces Ascent™ spacecraft to support space superiority and exploration

BROOMFIELD, Colo. — April 14, 2026 — BAE Systems has introduced its Ascent spacecraft, a new addition to the company’s Elevation spacecraft line that supports superiority and exploration missions across […]

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Eutelsat’s U.S. arm pitches hosted payloads deals on OneWeb satellites

The company is in talks with Pentagon and intelligence agencies interested in flying payloads on OneWeb’s next-gen constellation

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Is COPUOS at a turning point? Governing space in a new era

A meeting of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). Credit: United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs

The 63rd Session of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee (STSC) of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), held in Vienna in February, highlighted a reality that is becoming increasingly clear to those working in the international space community: The space environment has changed dramatically, and the institutions created at […]

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Ecliptic Enterprises and The Extraterrestrial Investment Company Announce Strategic Agreement

ecliptic logo

Colorado Springs, Colorado, April 14, 2026 — Ecliptic Enterprises, a pioneer in space avionics and imaging systems with more than 220 missions flown over 25 years, announced a strategic development agreement […]

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Q&A: Astronaut Linda Godwin on lessons learned from Artemis

Linda Godwin. Credit: NASA

Linda Godwin, a former NASA astronaut and a veteran of four space shuttle missions, knows what it’s like to spend a significant time in space. She chalked up more than 38 days in orbit. She carried out two spacewalks, becoming the first woman to do so outside two space stations with a six-hour spacewalk in […]

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‘The show goes on:’ NASA looks beyond Artemis 2

Artemis 2 crew member Reid Wiseman, Christina Koch, Victor Glover and Jeremy Hansen shared brief remarks after they landed in Houston on Saturday. Credit: NASA

NASA’s Artemis 2 mission returned safely to Earth the evening of April 10, completing a critical early step in the agency’s effort to send astronauts back to the moon. The Orion spacecraft Integrity splashed down in the Pacific Ocean near San Diego at 8:07 p.m. Eastern, nine days and roughly 90 minutes after lifting off […]

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RTX’s Blue Canyon Technologies expands reaction wheel production capacity

BOULDER, Colo. (April 14, 2026) — Small satellite manufacturer and mission services provider Blue Canyon Technologies, part of RTX’s (NYSE: RTX) Raytheon business, is increasing reaction wheel production capacity to support […]

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Xoople and L3Harris team up to build satellites for ‘Earth AI’

New constellation aims to turn the planet into a continuous data stream for machine learning

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Archangel Lightworks Raises Over $13.5m In Series A Funding Round

archangel lightworks logo

Oxford, UK – Archangel Lightworks announces the successful close of an oversubscribed $13.5m Series A funding round to accelerate the commercialisation of its deployable optical ground station, the TERRA-M.  Archangel […]

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The future of GPS satellites with Fang Qian of Lockheed Martin

In this episode of Space Minds, Mike Gruss sits down with Fang Qian to discuss the future of GPS satellites. They chat about the need for jam-resistant signals, what comes […]

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White House releases space nuclear policy

SR-1 Freedom

The White House released a policy April 14 directing NASA, the Pentagon and the Department of Energy to develop space nuclear power systems that could launch as soon as 2028.

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Defense firms unveil new satellite designs for orbital warfare

BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin are developing maneuvering satellites that can be refueled

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Q&A: Aerospace Corp flexes its data advantage

Tanya Pemberton. Credit: Aerospace Corp.

Aerospace Corp. is swimming in data. After testing spacecraft and components for more than 65 years, the Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) is training artificial intelligence models to inform spacecraft designs and speed up anomaly diagnosis, Tanya Pemberton, Aerospace CEO and president since September, said in a recent interview. United States government agencies […]

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Space Command pushes new warfighting model built on moving satellites

Gen. Stephen Whiting calls for a shift from fixed spacecraft to maneuverable assets, with wargames planned to test the concept

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How to build a portfolio when bonds fail to buffer stocks

The classic hedge has fallen apart, but don’t dump it just yet

Tuesday assorted links

1. Where is it dangerous to be a pedestrian in NYC? And city-owned grocery stores for NYC? (NYT)

2. Is Mississippi running out of liquor?

3. Four classic Chinese texts and their relevance.

4. Redux post from 1/28.

5. Seb Krier.

6. The penguin-tracking culture that is Kyoto, Japan.

7. The Economist will be using bylines and putting people in front of the camera (NYT).

8. Marginal Literary Revolution.

9. New Rebecca Lowe and Henry Oliver podcast.

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HardWired / Wired Books

Around 1996-7 Wired Ventures, publishers of Wired magazine, had a book publishing company called HardWired. There’s barely any presence on the web for this so, as I looked at my shelf of some of HardWired’s books, I thought I should collect what information I could find.

As far as I can tell the company published 15 books – 12 non-fiction, 3 fiction – with at least 11 more in the pipeline before it closed down, all listed below. This isn’t many titles but it’s a great snapshot of a certain mid-90s tech-focused world. I’ve looked for information about the company and its books to piece together what I can here.

A photo of ten books in a pile, their spines facing the camera. The spine of each is striped, each in a different pair of bright colours.
My collection of some of HardWired’s books

Publication years for Wired Ventures’ 15 books are 1996 or 1997, with those that were only planned having being scheduled from September 1997 into 1998. At least three of the later published books were published by Wired Books, rather than HardWired. Maybe they were far enough along in the process to see through to the end after HardWired closed.

Most of the books were original works but two of 15 non-fiction works (both by Marshall McLuhan and Quentin Fiore) were first published in the 1960s, and the three fiction books were previously published in 1980 (two of them) and 1991.

I worked at the UK edition of Wired magazine during this period but had no connection with HardWired. Do email me if you have any corrections or additions to any of this.

Two black-and-white logos in identical styles. Each letter is set at an angle, but with verticals still vertical, like an isometric view. The odd-numbered letters are white on a black square (also at an angle). The even-numbered letters are black on the white background.
The logos for HardWired and Wired Books, scanned from Reality Check and HotWired Style

Wired Ventures IPO

On 30 May 1996 Wired Ventures filed an S-1 form with the Securities and Exchange Commission because it was planning an IPO (Initial Public Offering). This mentions HardWired as a recently-established division:

The Company has established a book publishing division, HardWired, which will publish its first books in 1996. A total of six books, many of which will contain content derived from Wired magazine, are scheduled for publishing in the Fall/Winter 1996 book season.

The six books it lists are Mind Grenades, The Medium is the Massage, Wired Style, Digerati, Reality Check, and BOTS.

Also:

HardWired books will be published by the Company and distributed through Publisher’s Group West (“PGW”). The Company’s book marketing program includes a cooperative agreement with PGW for advertising in wholesaler catalogs, book trade publications, consumer outlets, and national account promotions. The Company also expects to promote its books through trade shows, trade and consumer print advertisements (including Wired magazine), electronic kiosks, and online advertising (including on the Company’s online media properties), author appearances on television and radio, book tours, and speaking engagements.

Under the subheading COMPETITION it includes:

The Company’s book publishing operations will compete for sales with numerous other publishers and retailers, as well as with other media, including the Company’s own magazine and online media products. In addition, the acquisition of publishing rights to books by leading authors is highly competitive, and the Company will compete with numerous other book publishers. There can be no assurance that the Company’s book publishing efforts will be successful, or that the costs of such efforts will not have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business, financial condition, and operating results.

Searching my old Wired UK emails I found one dated 14 October 1996 from Louis Rossetto to everyone at Wired and HotWired, about critical coverage of the company’s proposed IPO, and emphasising how well all the parts were actually doing (he was unable to say anything publicly due to the “quiet period” imposed by the SEC). It included this paragraph:

At HardWired, two of our first six titles have been selected as Book of the
Month Club Alternates. And one, Mind Grenades, has made the Borders Top 50
bestselling books in America (less than a month after release) and is already
back on press -- an amazing start for a new company.

On 25 October the Wired Ventures IPO was withdrawn.

Scanning

I also remember an email sent round the company earlier, asking for any copies of Marshall McLuhan’s The Medium is the Massage because HardWired was going to republish it and wanted to ensure it had the best quality originals possible from which to scan the pages.

Paulina Borsook

In searching for HardWired-related details I came across an article at Salon.com, ‘WIRED UNBOUND’ by Scott Rosenberg from 2 October 1996. It recounts how relations between HardWired and a potential author, Paulina Borsook a critic of Wired’s often libertarian mindset, broke down. (I’ve updated the links to roughly contemporary Internet Archive versions):

Borsook had a love-hate relationship with Wired; she’d published in the magazine early in its life, but had also written critically of the technoculture Wired champions — both in print, in the anthology “Wired Women” and online, at the Suck Web site.

Then, in late August — after she had signed her $42,000 contract but before Hardwired had countersigned it — an interview with her appeared on a Web site called Rewired. In it, she repeated some of her criticisms of Wired but mostly expressed bemused bewilderment over the company’s apparent continued enthusiasm for her work.

The next day, she received a bitter e-mail message from Peter Rutten, Hardwired’s publisher, complaining that the interview had undermined their relationship. He also set new conditions on the contract; the publisher would only dole out the author’s advance in $2000 increments as she turned in chunks of her draft. Borsook — convinced, as most writers presented with such terms would be, that Hardwired really wished to deep-six the deal — decided to walk.

You can read the Rewired interview with Borsook by David Hudson on the Internet Archive: Part 1 and Part 2.

That December Hudson published an interview with Louis Rossetto, about the Borsook interview, to the nettime mailing list. It also appeared in Hudson’s 1997 book Rewired (on Open Library and readable at the Internet Archive). It includes this from Louis:

                            ... Often I'm completely absent; I'm pretty
much hands-off on a large majority of the content that we create here.

Which, in point of fact, was the case with Paulina's book at HardWired. I
didn't even know it was happening until Peter told me it was one of the
books for next year, and then I only found out after the fact that it
wasn't.

That’s the only part directly relevant to HardWired; getting further into any of the larger topics is an entirely different rabbit hole.


§ The Books

I’ve compiled lists of all the books I can find that were published or not-yet-published. This is accurate as far as I can tell but feel free to email me if you have any corrections or additions. There is some further info and links on the Open Library page for HardWired.

Three of the books I own are actually published by Wired Books, not HardWired, with a cut-down version of the HardWired logo. Maybe the production of these were in progress when HardWired closed, so they were published under a different label? I’m just guessing. I’ve included them below but indicated the difference.

These are listed in order of publication year, and then alphabetically by title. I’ve scanned or photographed the covers of those I own (hence some fading), with others scavenged from elsewhere. The planned publishing dates for the not-yet-published works were either found on various sites or else listed in already-published books.

Published books

Non-fiction

  1. A book cover with a purple background and the letters DIGERATI in bright pink arranged over the whole cover.
    Digerati: Encounters With the Cyber Elite

    By John Brockman

  2. A book cover with a black background and white type in, probably, Helvetica. All the text is at an angle. There's also a stretched black-and-white photo of a face, possibly smiling.
    The Medium is the Massage: An Inventory of Effects

    By Marshall McLuhan and Quentin Fiore

  3. A book cover with a bright red background and the title in neon green, and subtitle in neon pink. All the type is like it's been stencilled.
    Mind Grenades: Manifestos from the Future

    By John Plunkett

  4. A very wordy book cover. A greenish-yellow backround. The title is big and in bright pink and orange. Subtitle and authors are in black, smaller, below. Lots of unreadable type overlays much of the cover.
    Reality Check

    By Brad Wieners and David Pescovitz

  5. A bright red book cover with type in a black and white serif.
    Wired Style: Principles of English Usage in the Digital Age

    Edited by Constance Hale

  6. A book cover with a bright green patterned background and the rest of the type, in a sort of globular dot-matrix style, in yellow and white.
    Bots: The Origin of New Species

    By Andrew Leonard

  7. A book cover with a black background, the title in spaced sans-serif yellow type, and a yellow silhouette of the Man sculpture taking up most of the cover.
    Burning Man

    By John Plunkett

    • Published 1997
    • ISBN 9781888869132
  8. A grey cardboard cover with embossed text in red, orange and black. It uses a very 90s font with some of the characters looking more like runes or dingbats.
    Jargon Watch: A Pocket Dictionary for the Jitterati

    By Gareth Branwyn

  9. A book cover with a background in blue and black, maybe like TV static, and the text all broken up in white and red.
    Media Rants: Postpolitics in the Digital Nation

    By Jon Katz

  10. A book cover with a pixellated neon pink and green background. Type is in quirky bold sans-serif in black and bright pink.
    HotWired Style: Principles for Building Smart Web Sites

    By Jeffrey Veen

  11. A book cover with a white background. The Suck logo is in blue, with the subtitle in hellow. There's an illustration of a man dressed like a butcher chopping up a table of various objects.
    Suck: Worst-Case Scenarios in Media, Culture, Advertising, and the Internet

    By Joey Anuff (editor), Terry Colon (illustrator), Ana Marie Cox (editor)

  12. A book cover with a background image of a screaming monkey in neon pink and yellow. The black and purple type in front is set at an angle.
    War and Peace in the Global Village

    By Marshall McLuhan and Quentin Fiore

Fiction

  1. A book cover in metallic purple and lime green, with type in white.
    The Artificial Kid

    By Bruce Sterling

  2. A book cover in metallic blue and yellow, with type in white.
    The Silicon Man

    By Charles Platt

    • Originally published 1991, re-published 1997
    • My copy published by Wired Books, not HardWired
    • ISBN 9781888869149
  3. A book cover in metallic blue and yellow, with type in white.
    White Light

    By Rudy Rucker

    • Originally published 1980, re-published 1997
    • My copy published by Wired Books, not HardWired
    • ISBN 9781888869170

Not-yet-published books

Non-fiction

  1. Memex: Origins of the Digital Culture

    By Brad Wieners

    • Due to be published September 1997
    • ISBN 9781888869088
  2. Next Leap: Scenarios for Chinas Future

    By Peter Schwartz and James A. Ogilvy

    • Due to be published Feburary 1998
    • ISBN 9781888869255
  3. The Augmented Animal

    By Max More

    • Due to be published March 1998
    • ISBN 9781888869217
  4. The Future of Shopping

    By Lawrence Wilkinson

    • Due to be published March 1998
    • ISBN 9781888869248
Fiction
  1. Slam

    By Lewis Shiner

    • Due to be published Fall 1997
  2. Dad’s Nuke

    By Marc Laidlaw

    • Due to be published Winter 1998
    • ISBN 9781888869156
  3. Dad’s Nuke

    By Marc Laidlaw

    • Due to be published Winter 1998
    • ISBN 9781888869156
  4. Eclipse

    By John Shirley

    • Due to be published February 1998
    • ISBN 9781888869194
  5. The Working Papers

    Edited by Marc Frauenfelder

    • Due to be published Winter 1998
  6. Metrophage

    By Richard Kadrey

    • Due to be published Spring 1998
    • ISBN 9781888869187
  7. Radical Hard SF

    Edited by Marc Frauenfelder

    • Due to be published Spring 1998
  8. Synners

    By Pat Cadigan

    • Due to be published Spring 1998

This is accurate as best I can judge from the information available, but send any additions or corrections to me via email.


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How to Be a Serious Reader

Welcome back to The Honest Broker interview series —also available on our new YouTube channel. You can also find it on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

Today, I’m pleased to share my conversation with .


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Henry Oliver is the literary critic behind , a newsletter helping you make the most of your reading. He’s also a Research Fellow and Emerging Scholar at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.

I sat down with Henry to talk about literature, poetry, the relationship between reading and empathy, and how to develop your taste.

Below is an extract of our conversation. For the full interview, check out the video at the top of the page.

Henry Oliver

A CONVERSATION WITH HENRY OLIVER

Jared: Henry Oliver, thank you for joining me.

Henry: Thank you for having me.

Jared: So I want to ask you about Philistines and how Philistines have taken over the culture. I think the phrase you used is ‘Philistine supremacy’?

Henry: That's right. A lot of the time, when we talk about Philistines, we mean, oh, that awful person I know who doesn't appreciate the high arts. And it's a kind of snob thing. I'm not interested in that. Everyone's a Philistine, right? I'm a Philistine. You're a Philistine.

The really important thing is whether the literary elite are Philistines. And what we have now are English professors saying that, you know, Taylor Swift is as good as Mary Shelley. And the guy who runs the New York Times book review section hasn't read Middlemarch and doesn't think it's a problem. And there are just so many examples like that—that sort of suggest that the elite tier has kind of given up on being elites in a way.

I think part of it is we had what was called prestige TV, and people wanted to write about that and talk about that.

“The elite tier has kind of given up on being elites.”

Jared: Let me play Devil’s Advocate for a moment and say, no, Succession’s really good. The writing is very interesting. The cinematography adds a new layer to its presentation. The storytelling's good. It gives you room to explore various themes in a way that a play doesn’t because of its runtime and multi-season arc. Tell me why that’s crazy.

Henry: There are two questions here. Is Succession good? And is Succession the sort of thing that merits the cultural elite giving it the kind of attention that they have? And those are separate questions.

Maybe Succession is good. I neither know nor care. I found it boring. I couldn't watch very much of it. Personally, I think the cinematography is hugely derivative. It's all full of the ordinary TV tropes we're all used to from a million other things. I didn't think the dialogue was that good. And I also felt the story was just dragging and dragging and dragging. But I'm happy to say, okay, a lot of people know TV better than me, and they think it was amazing. And like, I can just be wrong about that.

But should we be talking about it in partnership with King Lear? Should we be devoting the kind of space and the kind of critical attention that we give to it, that we also give to the great works of fiction and drama? That’s obviously a no. Even the advocates can't really make a serious case for it. And, you know, King Lear is 400 years old at this point and is acknowledged as one of the great masterpieces of the West. No one's printing out the Succession scripts and doing a close reading.

Jared: What were the conditions that sort of led to this Philistine supremacy? What changed?

Henry: One thing I should say is there's still a lot of excellence. And I'm not saying that everything's gone bad. I'm saying there's this new segment in the culture, right? I think part of it is that it's very hard to make money writing about Shakespeare, writing about new novels, writing about whatever the NYRB is putting out. It's very hard to get an audience for that.

How many New York Review of Books can there be? How big is their audience base ever going to be? No one is really pretending that we can hit a million subscribers if we just do these six things. It's not there, right? And so I think part of it is just to stay commercial and to stay relevant. We had TV, now we have social media—that's just where people are. I'm a bit close to being like, blame the people. But partly you just have to adapt in the normal ways, right?

Even if you're writing about a popular literary novelist like Brandon Taylor or Sally Rooney, the audience is just much smaller for a "here's what I think the book's about" essay than for "what does Sally Rooney say about conservative sex politics in this moment in our generation?"

Jared: I don't think I've ever read a review of a Rooney novel that wasn't actually about Rooney's politics. Or just about Sally Rooney. There's actually a shocking turn towards the author—half of the word count will just be about what Sally Rooney is up to, or what she's done this time, or did she support this political cause enough or too much. The same would be true for ’s work. A lot of the critical discussion will end up being about Brandon Taylor or what he stands for, rather than, you know, the novel.

You reviewed his new novel, right?

Henry: I think it’s his best novel. I thought it was great. He is openly engaging with ideas in a different way. So obviously, all novels are novels of ideas. And there are lots of different ways in which novelists diffuse ideas. They embed them in different parts of the book. They might be more open, more subverted. But he is now making his characters ideological, making them have arguments about ideas. The narrator voice is quite intrusive in the discussion of these ideas, and it ties the themes together as well. So it’s a bit more like what we’re used to from an Iris Murdoch novel or something, right? The ideas are right open on the page and they’re fighting it out. And I think that’s a very good development for him as a writer. And I also think it’s a good development for fiction as a whole.

Jared: You think about Iris Murdoch—that’s a good comparison because she’s a novelist. She’s a serious novelist worth taking seriously. She’s also just a thinker and an essayist. And Brandon has increasingly, if you just follow what he does online, been engaging very much with literary criticism, with philosophy. And it would be very hard for a good writer to engage with that and then not want to bring it into the novel somehow. But I don’t know how many writers are consciously doing that while trying to write literary fiction that’s not purposefully experimental, and aiming for a space where he’s writing at major presses and writing big novels, but also engaging with ideas.

Henry: Right, and he’s trying to revive realism in a way, because there’s a large segment of the literary community that dislikes realism. He’s trying to defend it. He’s been reading Lukács and Zola, and he’s really dug into what realism is and is trying to bring some of those things back.

I do think other writers are engaging with ideas, but with a different set of ideas and in different ways. So Catherine Lacey wrote Biography of X, I think one or two years ago now. And one of the most enjoyable things about the book that makes it accomplished is that it’s hugely embedded in the ideas of mid-20th century culture and literature, but is fictionalizing them to some greater or lesser degree throughout the book.

Jared: So, okay—Brandon Taylor, Catherine Lacey. Who are other contemporary writers right now that you’re excited about?

Henry: Oh, I like Sally Rooney. I don’t have a problem. I think she’s great. You have these arguments like, oh, it’s just commercial fiction disguised as literary fiction. It’s such an affront, all this stuff. Just relax. You can just read a book and enjoy it and not worry about whether it’s George Eliot enough, you know? I think she’s a very clever writer. The last book, which everyone hated because it had the fake Ulysses kind of writing style and it drove everyone crazy—and as you say, all the reviews were not really reviews. They were just personal essays going, I thought she was the voice of my generation. Why is she doing this?

Actually, that book was a very interesting exploration of autism. And at least one of the characters is plainly autistic in some degree. There’s a lot of discussion now about the expansion of the diagnostic criteria. But somewhere on that new way of understanding it, this character is autistic. And I think it’s one of the better novels that we have about what autism is, what it’s like to be autistic in that sense. Not in the, you know, that famous book about The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, about the boy who is autistic. That’s a different kind of thing. But that’s what I found interesting in the last book.

Jared: Have you followed the critical discussion of the new Pynchon novel that’s coming out soon?

Henry: No.

Jared: You don’t strike me as the biggest Pynchon guy. But there was a, I believe it was in The New Yorker—if not, I’ll put a link down below so people can see it. There was a big New Yorker piece. And the sort of headline was, it’s great for Pynchon fans, and it’s great at what Pynchon does, but what about the rest of us? And I thought—that might be a great example of this Philistine attitude, where it is engaging with a work of serious fiction. Great. But its first response is, why isn’t this for everyone?

Henry: Yes, yes. And I do think there’s a kind of democratic impulse to the way we treat art these days that’s misguided, in the sense that it creates a false opposition. Some works are both democratic and elite. A lot of the canonical authors, like Jane Austen and Shakespeare, work on both levels. You can read it for the story, or you can really get into the footnotes and spend your life on it. And those were conscious decisions that those authors made. But a lot of works aren’t like that. Ulysses isn’t like that. You can obviously—everyone can read it and get something from it. But Ulysses is a conscious attempt to do something else. And that’s fine. And we should just, again, relax. What’s the big deal?

Jared: There is a group—they meet at the public library once a week. And they have been reading Finnegans Wake for 10 years. It’s like six or seven of them. There was a news story about them.

Henry: And they’re starting again, right?

Jared: Yes. They spent years just going page by page together and really diving in, because it’s the kind of novel that can sustain that. And it’s very much not a democratic novel. If you think you’re going to read Finnegans Wake in a month by reading it an hour before bed every night—get real. It’s just not that sort of book.

Henry: But that, I think, is the perfect example. I’m so glad you brought that up. I loved that news story because it is open to people, the non-democratic form of art. There used to be this idea—I think Frank Kermode first said it, and then Philip Larkin said it, and Betjeman used to say this—that modernism had put up a “no through way” sign on the road and said people can’t come in anymore. Literature is not for you anymore. But in a funny way, that sort of both is and isn’t true, and that sign is a simultaneous invitation to say, well, actually, if you want to go to the library every week for a decade, it is for you. And for some people, that is quite democratic, right?

Jared: If someone were listening to this and they think, well, I read Romeo and Juliet in high school and I hated it. I think I read Romeo and Juliet in high school and hated it. But then I read A Midsummer Night’s Dream and I thought, oh, I liked this more. And then I read Othello and thought, oh, I really like this. So I’m just wondering, how would you coax them to give Shakespeare another chance? Perhaps they’re a little older. They’re no longer being forced to read it. What would you do specifically about Shakespeare?

Henry: So the first thing I would say is, you’re not at school and you’re not that person anymore. And there are a lot of things you did and didn’t like at school that are no longer relevant. So just move on. Put that to one side. That’s over. Shakespeare’s the best. People get a little fussy about, can we say the best, and can we have rankings? Whatever. Yes, he’s the best. He’s the heart of the English canon. He’s the best reading experience you can have. You owe it to yourself to see or read some Shakespeare in the way that you would travel to see amazing landscapes, amazing buildings, have the best food of the world, hear the best music of the world. No one thinks it’s crazy to jump on a plane for eight hours to go and do something incredible on the other side of the world. But spending three hours with this book is too scary?

Jared: So—you have this piece about how to have good taste. I think it’s your most popular piece on Substack. Tell me a little bit about what taste is and maybe what’s different about taste and preferences.

Henry: So taste is the idea that you have a well-refined sense of what is good or what is not good in a particular domain. So you might have taste in movies, books, food. But people increasingly talk about the importance of taste at work, because one of the things that AI is doing is making human taste and human judgment one of those fields that’s going to rise in importance and rise in value, because it’s obviously something that’s slightly more reserved to us than to the AI.

But the question of taste is very confused in popular discourse. And the confusion is that people don’t see the difference between taste and preference. And sometimes when people say “I need to refine my taste,” they think they need to have a stronger set of preferences. But that’s not really taste. That’s just knowing what you like and being better at knowing what you like.

Jared: And I think you see this when people first develop a sense of ownership over their aesthetic sensibilities—they start saying, oh, that stuff, that’s shit. And this stuff’s great. And they speak in these very stark terms. But in a way that kind of reflects that maybe they don’t understand what they’re talking about.

Henry: I think so. And I think whether you enjoy it and whether it is good, as we talked about with Succession, are separate questions and should be treated as such. Often there’ll be overlap, but often there won’t. Taste is knowledge. That’s what it comes down to.

If you’re a chef and you have taste, you can pick up ingredients. You can tell if they’re fresh enough, firm enough. You know how sharp or strong the taste is going to be based on how fresh or how mature they are. You know how to combine them. You know what the result of that will be. So your taste in selecting and using and cooking ingredients is just a huge knowledge bed that you’re able to draw on all the time.

Jared: So let me ask you about some more of the work that you’re doing on Substack. The publication is called The Common Reader. Why did you choose that?

Henry: That is a phrase from Samuel Johnson. He was writing his Life of Gray. Gray is a famous English poet who wrote the “Elegy Written in a Country Churchyard,” which at one time every schoolchild knew—probably many of them memorized—and which now no one reads. And he had spent several pages trashing Gray, saying, my God, look at this, terrible rhyming, lazy in the meter. He’s really just upset with everything. And then he turns around and says, well, the “Elegy in a Country Churchyard,” though, is a wonderful poem. And I rejoice to concur with the common reader and say that I love it. And it became a famous phrase. The whole concept of what is a common reader—is there such a thing? Some people deny it. But you can see with the rise of commercial society, the sheer number of books that were published in the 18th and 19th centuries, that there did become such a thing as a common reader.

“I think we’re going to live through a small revival of the humanities.”

They’re not involved in criticism or academia. Maybe they’re not very well schooled. Maybe they’re not even formally trained in literature in any way. They pick up the books and they read them, and the tradition is there for them. The phrase was then famously taken up by Virginia Woolf, who called her two books of critical essays The Common Reader. And she took that from Johnson. And she wrote the best literary criticism of the 20th century. And she was a true common reader. She was so deeply immersed in the tradition. So that’s where I got the phrase from.

Jared: So do you feel a kinship with the uneducated or the less educated person who just wants to read literature because they love it, or because they just have a desire?

Henry: I don’t know if I feel a kinship, but that’s basically what the blog is about. And I think there are a lot of those people out there. And I think there will be more of them in the future. I think we’re going to live through a small revival of the humanities, and those people are going to be a big part of it.

Jared: I definitely suspect that we are going to see an emergence of an era of autodidacts—people who are just curious about knowledge or about art that’s out there. And for a very long time, we thought that if you wanted to explore any of those topics, you went to school, you went to university, maybe you got a master’s degree, maybe considered doing a PhD, and then you were serious enough to really discuss this stuff. But I think increasingly people have this urge to take their education into their own hands.

I’ve written about this a decent amount. And I think the humanities stand to benefit from that. I do not endorse the view that some people would want to put out, that the academy has killed the humanities or anything like this. I think people who say that often don’t know what’s going on in the academy. But I think the humanities can thrive outside of the academy in a way that, say, mechanical engineering can’t.

Henry: Exactly. But also, even when the academy is doing well, it relies on having common readers. And there is a much more direct relationship than there is with some of the more STEM subjects. In the sense that people who have nothing to do with it, who never took the degree, are a big part of your reading base for the primary texts, at least. And even if the professors don’t want to be directly engaged with those people, simply the fact that they exist is part of why we have as many departments, as many courses, as many graduates as we do. So I think it’s very important.

And I also think we wouldn’t have literature if we didn’t have an ordinary audience. Someone has to want the books to exist. Because you used to have this before books were selling in volume—Chaucer didn't sell any books, sold some manuscripts maybe, but there were still people who wanted to have his poems read out, and those people were not always in the universities. Maybe they were at court, or maybe they were elites in their own way, but fine. In one sense, they're still common readers, and that's very important for poetry.

Jared: So what do we do about all these Philistines? The elite Philistines?

Henry: Well, actually, that’s why I call it a supremacy—because they’re ruling over us.

Jared: Say a little bit more about what you mean by “elite” here.

Henry: The people who are running the institutions. The book critics at the big newspapers, the editors, the professors. Again, it’s a certain selection of them. By no means is it all of them. There are so many excellent people out there. But it’s reached a sort of tipping point where there’s a large presence of it in the media. This is why I say, don’t trust all the critics. Take it into your own hands. Go to Substack, go to YouTube, go to Twitter, go to wherever, because you will also find great stuff there.

We have this old-fashioned model that you follow particular people. It used to be that you could just read Michael Dirda in the Washington Post. He’s always good. You’ll always get some great information from him. Now you really want to be looking around and following different people and finding different things. It varies by topic. It varies by what you’re doing. So just bear that in mind very strongly. But Liberties is a new journal, that’s been set up in the last five years or so, that’s doing great work—a kind of, to use awful phrases like “challenger brand” or whatever, a really strong alternative. I think there’s a lot of good work on Substack. And I think a new culture will emerge from all of those alternative ways of doing it.

Jared: One of my favorite things about talking to you is when you talk about writers you hate.

Henry: You're not going to make me say names?

Jared: We won't talk about any contemporary writers. Are there canonical writers that you think are just overrated, that have just been included? Because you're kind of a defender of the canon on the grounds that it's all pretty good. But are there any canonical writers that you look at and say, I just don't see what the argument is for this?

Henry: Yes, there are some in the 20th century. It is hard to bring names to mind because eventually you decide you’re leaving this alone permanently, or for some time. I do think that the canon is good. I do think it’s very hard to knock someone out of the canon. And when those attempts have been made, they’ve often failed.

So there was famously a generation that didn’t like Milton—the T.S. Eliot generation. Several very prominent critics all made their case against Milton and thought he was overrated and all this stuff. And, well, look how that went. It was Christopher Ricks, I think, who came back with Milton’s Grand Style, which is a really good book of criticism, and defended Milton. And he’s still here. You would have to be ideological or cracked not to pick up Milton and say, yeah, this is some of the best.

Jared: Yeah.

Henry: Of course, no one ever wished Paradise Lost was longer. Everyone agrees with that. But the best of Milton is just extraordinary.

Jared: And you’re not just thinking about Paradise Lost when you say the best of Milton, right?

Henry: Well, a lot of people would say that is the best of Milton and that the rest is hard work. I think he’s a great sonnet writer at a minimum. Many of the short poems, which you can read in the John Carey edition, are excellent. But I accept the general criticism that Lycidas and some of the others are overdone and not up to his best standards. I also think the prose is excellent—some of the best prose we have.

Jared: Well, let me ask you about American writing. I think I told you last night as we were browsing a bookstore that every American writer is secretly an Anglophile, and we suspect that maybe our literary culture doesn’t stand up. Some of them not so secretly. But even the ones who would deny it, I think—we all think that the UK editions of our books look better. If there’s a UK audiobook, it sounds better. And what we’re putting out is garbage compared to what you can get overseas.

Henry: But these are all surface considerations.

Jared: Yes, but I think deep down people start to worry: have we produced great novels in the same way, or great poetry in the same way, that England has?

Henry: I think that’s a very valid question. I’m not as well read in American literature, but I don’t think you have as good a poetic tradition as we do, by any means. There are like twelve names of true excellence. And I think some of the African-American poets are on that list. And there’s been some controversy about that over here, which I find very puzzling. Gwendolyn Brooks is one of your best poets. I don’t even understand that it’s a question.

Jared: Do you like Langston Hughes?

Henry: Yeah, exactly. Another perfect example. That said, you’ve only had 200 years, right? Whereas we go back to the Saxons with our poetry. So The Oxford Book of English Verse is a summation of a thousand years of great cultural tradition. You can’t really compete with that. But I am surprised that there are so few truly great poets.

I suspect one reason is that people like Whitman and Dickinson are true originals, and they’re immersed in the long tradition—they know their Bible and they know all these things. And then in the quest for an American poetry, this gradually faded to become a replication of Whitman and Dickinson rather than doing what they did, which is to be truly immersed in the long tradition. That’s probably unfair, but I think there’s something to it.

Jared: What about novels, though, or American novelists?

Henry: I have not read the American novel tradition in the same way. I think the 19th century is incredibly strong. Willa Cather, who I’ve started reading recently—clearly one of your best. But when I get into the 20th century, I truly don’t see the fuss. Obviously some of it’s great, but I think an awful lot of praise has been given to things that are not that good. But by the end of the 20th century, literature is becoming much less significant in culture everywhere. And America was not a very literary nation to begin with. Tocqueville says there’s a Shakespeare in every wooden hut, every cabin that he visits.

Jared: Remarkably hard to find.

Henry: I’ll take him at his word, but yes, you don’t see the influence of that in a lot of places. The founding fathers were incredibly literary, but was there a general literary culture? I think when you come over here and you start a nation from scratch, you don’t have the Edinburgh Review and the Quarterly Review, and you don’t have the shelves and shelves of books. So maybe that’s part of it. But this idea that the mid-20th century—Saul Bellow and all these people—and they’re all such geniuses? I don’t really see it. But I’m very English. So that might be the problem.

Jared: I know you like Melville. Or at least you like Moby-Dick.

Henry: Yes.

Jared: But you don’t maybe like his poetry so much.

Henry: I tried reading the Civil War poems, and I think—is it “Sheridan at Cedar Creek”? There’s one about a particular battle that I read the other day, and I thought that was excellent. But in general, I thought the poems would be excellent based on Moby-Dick, but not really.

Jared: Moby-Dick feels singular in his work.

Henry: I’m about to read through the other novels, and I’ve been told it’s worth it.

Jared: I don’t think they’re bad. I just think that Moby-Dick stands apart, not only in his work, but in American literature. We talked last night, and I said Moby-Dick is the great American novel. I just think the argument’s easy to make. What do you think about—there’s been a bit of a resurgence. I see our friend Ted is a fan of David Foster Wallace.

Henry: Oh, I haven’t read David Foster Wallace. I’m sorry, I know.

Jared: Wow, okay. Well, that gives me nothing to talk about. I could see you hating Infinite Jest.

Henry: I love his essays. I think he’s a great essayist. I’ve read most of those. I just don’t feel compelled. I read some of Mason & Dixon and a couple of the other novels of that ilk that came out at that time, and I didn’t like any of them.

Jared: Yeah, you haven’t read DeLillo either.

Henry: Nope. None of it appeals to me at all.

Jared: I want to ask you our final question. We ask all of our guests. I ask for a book recommendation for the listeners. It’s supposed to be a book everybody should read, but for some reason nobody’s reading it. And I prepared you for this. I hope you have something good.

Henry: Yeah, I’m going to pick The Oxford Book of English Verse. There is something for everyone in it. It is a storehouse of most of the best writing in English. You’ll get bits of Paradise Lost, so it might send you to Milton. You’ll get bits of Shakespeare, so it might send you to one of the plays. But it also just gives you entire poems from hundreds and hundreds of authors, and you might realize that you love the Elizabethans, or you love the modernists, or whatever it is. And there’s a lot of stuff in there that you don’t get at school. No one is given any Robert Herrick at school. He’s wonderful. I just memorized one of his poems because I liked it so much. And that can happen to you with this wonderful anthology.

Jared: Henry Oliver, thanks for joining me.

Henry: Thank you for having me.

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Breaking …

Facing expulsion vote, Swalwell resigns from Congress.

Quite apart from the gravity of the allegations, I simply cannot remember a more rapid and total campaign and, it would now seem, career implosion. Usually loyalists and especially senior staff hold out a bit longer. Just stunning in every dimension.

More Info on the Ceasefire Negotiations

This post at Axios gives us the benefit of Barak Ravid’s reporting on the state of the U.S.-Iran negotiations. His sources suggest that the core hold up was the Iranian nuclear program, with the U.S. insisting on a 20 year moratorium on uranium production and the Iranians countering with something in the single digits. Note that this isn’t that different from what President Obama got with the JCPOA — a longterm but by no means permanent cessation. There’s also no mention in the Ravid piece about the Strait of Hormuz or the sanctions regime. Perhaps I’m wrong in what I noted here and the demand for sanctions relief is merely a bluff. But other reports say that Hormuz was in fact a major stumbling block, as one would expect. While I don’t question Ravid’s reporting as such, this article in the Times, I believe, captures the dynamic more precisely: Iran and the U.S. are now moving into a battle of economic privation, testing which player can endure more economic pain.

As we’ve discussed in earlier posts, it’s no comparison in absolute terms. Iran’s economic pain — from sanctions, capital asset destruction and blockade — is infinitely greater than anything the U.S. is or will experience. But that’s not the question. The Iranian regime is in a battle for its life. To stay alive it will endure a lot of pain. The U.S. isn’t. It’s only the core of the MAGA movement and it elected officials who are in perhaps a vaguely similar position. But in Trump’s case holding out directly threatens his power and his political movement’s survival. How long can Trump hold out as the battle of wills adds anvil after anvil to the already foundering ship of the GOP’s midterm hopes?

VIDEO: Allegra Kirkland and Mike Rothschild on Why Some Conspiracy Theories Stick With Us

Conspiracy theories have become an inescapable part of American politics and political culture. I talked to Mike Rothschild, a journalist and conspiracy researcher who writes TPM’s Rough Edges column, about why some conspiracies endure, and what happens when fringe ideas are legitimized by some of the most powerful people on earth.

We got into the long tail of QAnon; just how many central banks the Rothschild family supposedly owns; and why MAGA conspiracy peddlers are turning on President Trump.

Check out our conversation below.

Trump and Iran Are Both in Impossible Positions

I wanted to share a few more thoughts on the current ceasefire and negotiations between the United States and Iran. As I noted earlier, there’s something so rich about sending JD Vance to lead the negotiations since the vice president has bent over backwards to signal to everyone who will listen (or write stories) that he was absolutely, positively against the war in the first place. President Trump has sent Vance to conduct and really own negotiations that almost certainly wouldn’t go well for the United States.

This cannot be an accident.

I started this post before the news broke that the first attempt at negotiations had broken down or, at least for now, had failed. That news just tightened the box into which Trump placed Vance. If the war resumes, Vance owns that continuation because he walked away from the negotiating table. It’s almost as though he gave the original order. If the negotiations fail, that’s on Vance too.

So where are we now?

Both parties are desperate to get out of this conflict but in very different ways, and with limitations that may make it very hard for both sides to end the conflict.

Clearly both sides want to bring this war to an end. The motivation of the U.S. side is clear. Trump wants out of this badly. That’s the biggest reason why the U.S. is negotiating from a position of weakness. Everyone knows Trump wants out of this. He got in way over his head, without any apparent understanding of the economic repercussions the war would bring and how much control Iran would have over those repercussions. That’s the biggest story here. Trump started what was purely a war of choice. It blew up in his face and now his desperation to get out has put the U.S. in a terrible position.

Iran has a different but no less real desperation. Iran wants the war to stop because they’ve incurred vast damage to every part of their military infrastructure. But with all that damage they now hold a chit — control of the choke point of the Strait of Hormuz and thus a lot of the global economy. They absolutely won’t let go of that if there’s any way they can avoid it. We’ve been hearing for a generation about the threat of Iran having a nuclear weapon. But blockading the strait in practice is a vastly greater cudgel. It’s comparatively easy to use. The pain isn’t that great at first. A nuke is a great threat. But actually using it in any way that doesn’t cause you immense damage is quite difficult. With the strait, Iran has Trump totally over a barrel. It’s brutally clear.

But Iran is also being driven by a different flavor of desperation. There’s a really important New York Times article from two days ago which describes the scale of destruction inside Iran. Across every kind of civilian and military infrastructure, estimates range from $300 billion to $1 trillion in damage. A lot of that damage is to heavy industry infrastructure at the core of the nation’s economy. Already before this war the Iranian economy was teetering, with out-of-control inflation and currency collapse. This winter’s demonstrations in Iran, which triggered such a ferociously brutal crackdown, were certainly broadly against the regime and its repressions. But they were also specifically a response to the collapsing economy. Now that all seems infinitely worse.

The Times article even suggests the strong possibility the present government isn’t equipped to inventory the scale of the damage. Iran’s “mosaic” strategy, in which local military units are given autonomy to act without central control, in order to make the state’s defense more resilient, may be great in military extremity. But it’s not great for running a state or economy. The best reporting suggests that the government of Iran is now pretty much entirely in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. That’s great as a force of domestic repression to keep the regime in place. But Iran is now facing a crisis that requires bureaucrats, civil engineers, economists.

What all of this means, I think, is that when Iran demands the return of all its frozen assets and an end to all sanctions, that may not be a bluff. It may be totally unrealistic. But it may not be a bluff. The regime’s survival may simply not be compatible with the kind of economic calamity the country now faces. So they may really need that money and that access to the global economy.

In some ways, the best angle for the Trump White House would simply be to pull back and allow Iran to simmer in this destruction. The regime may not be able to survive it. But of course Trump can’t do that because they need the Strait of Hormuz open. It may not be existential for the U.S. But it’s certainly existential for Donald Trump’s political future.

Iran has the upper hand because Trump so desperately wants a deal and wants out. But the Iranians are desperate too, just in a more delayed sense. The whole story illustrates the dangerous and unpredictable nature of war. You don’t know where it will end up. You may think you can end it on your own terms. But often you can’t. Both sides want or truly need things the other side simply can’t give. There is a whole complex area of study around mediation and negotiation designed to understand how parties in these situations find their way to something they can both accept. Here we must note that the U.S. apparently went into these talks with no diplomats or area experts at all, just the canny if unlikeable opportunist JD Vance and the real estate sharks and grifters, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

Since Trump is so lost he has now predictably escalated, now having the U.S. also blockade the Strait of Hormuz. (Take that, Iran!) There is a logic here: put additional pressure on Iran and China in the hope or creating more options or flexibility. It’s not a crazy strategy, just not a terribly straightforward one. What Trump really, really wants is free transit of oil tankers through the strait. Blockading the strait is at best a rather indirect way of accomplishing that.

Both sides desperately want out of this war. And that may keep them from quickly going back to outright war. But the war — the scale of destruction, its inconclusiveness, the global economic damage — has created a set of circumstances, a knot pulled terribly tight, that will make ending the conflict very hard.

Sublime

There may never be a Trump quote this perfect, this good: “Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime…”

Savor it.

Moonsteading

Charles Miller, a space entrepreneur and head of the Trump transition team on NASA, has a good piece proposing a Lunar Development Authority:

I propose the development of an international Lunar Development Authority (LDA), chartered and led by the United States, that would serve as a quasi-governmental regulator. The base on the Moon would be managed as a master-planned infrastructure development project, with NASA as the key strategic partner, emphasizing commercial methods and an investor mindset to drive economic viability in both the near and long term. The LDA would prioritize development of lunar resources to lower costs and serve customers, and treat the United States government and the governments of our allies as anchor tenant customers. The LDA would leverage public-private partnerships and cooperation among both governmental and private industry tenants from many countries to finance and develop lunar infrastructure in a commercial manner.

The model is New York’s famous Commissioners’ Plan of 1811, which imposed a simple, legible order on what was then mostly undeveloped land. The plan coordinated future development around a grid with standardized lots and clearly demarcated spaces for public and private infrastructure. Miller proposes a similar sequence for the Moon: first survey, standards, shared infrastructure, and a governing authority; then private tenants, resource extraction, construction, and finance.

The main legal obstacle is the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which paired a ban on weapons of mass destruction in space with “anti-colonial” restrictions on national appropriation. The OST, however, doesn’t prohibit economic activity per se—the target was national land grabs, not commercial development. The more recent Artemis Accords address this directly:

The ability to extract and utilize resources on the Moon, Mars, and asteroids is critical to support safe and sustainable space exploration and development.

The Artemis Accords reinforce that space resource extraction and utilization can and should be executed in a manner that complies with the Outer Space Treaty and in support of safe and sustainable space activities.

The Homesteading Act granted title rights in return for development. The likely path forward on the moon reverses that sequence, development first, title later. Ownership of extracted resources is already widely accepted, next will come toleration of exclusive operational zones, then long-duration concessions, then transferable development rights around fixed infrastructure.

The OST may delay ordinary land markets, but it cannot repeal the deeper economic fact that settlement happens only when builders can keep enough of what they create. TANSTAAFL.

The post Moonsteading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The clouds may look like an oyster, and the stars like pearls, but look beyond. The clouds may look like an oyster, and the stars like pearls, but look beyond.


How Hackers Are Thinking About AI

Interesting paper: “What hackers talk about when they talk about AI: Early-stage diffusion of a cybercrime innovation.

Abstract: The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) is raising concerns about its potential to transform cybercrime. Beyond empowering novice offenders, AI stands to intensify the scale and sophistication of attacks by seasoned cybercriminals. This paper examines the evolving relationship between cybercriminals and AI using a unique dataset from a cyber threat intelligence platform. Analyzing more than 160 cybercrime forum conversations collected over seven months, our research reveals how cybercriminals understand AI and discuss how they can exploit its capabilities. Their exchanges reflect growing curiosity about AI’s criminal applications through legal tools and dedicated criminal tools, but also doubts and anxieties about AI’s effectiveness and its effects on their business models and operational security. The study documents attempts to misuse legitimate AI tools and develop bespoke models tailored for illicit purposes. Combining the diffusion of innovation framework with thematic analysis, the paper provides an in-depth view of emerging AI-enabled cybercrime and offers practical insights for law enforcement and policymakers.

On Anthropic’s Mythos Preview and Project Glasswing

The cybersecurity industry is obsessing over Anthropic’s new model, Claude Mythos Preview, and its effects on cybersecurity. Anthropic said that it is not releasing it to the general public because of its cyberattack capabilities, and has launched Project Glasswing to run the model against a whole slew of public domain and proprietary software, with the aim of finding and patching all the vulnerabilities before hackers get their hands on the model and exploit them.

There’s a lot here, and I hope to write something more considered in the coming week, but I want to make some quick observations.

One: This is very much a PR play by Anthropic—and it worked. Lots of reporters are breathlessly repeating Anthropic’s talking points, without engaging with them critically. OpenAI, presumably pissed that Anthropic’s new model has gotten so much positive press and wanting to grab some of the spotlight for itself, announced its model is just as scary, and won’t be released to the general public, either.

Two: These models do demonstrate an increased sophistication in their cyberattack capabilities. They write effective exploits—taking the vulnerabilities they find and operationalizing them—without human involvement. They can find more complex vulnerabilities: chaining together several memory corruption bugs, for example. And they can do more with one-shot prompting, without requiring orchestration and agent configuration infrastructure.

Three: Anthropic might have a good PR team, but the problem isn’t with Mythos Preview. The security company Aisle was able to replicate the vulnerabilities that Anthropic found, using older, cheaper, public models. But there is a difference between finding a vulnerability and turning it into an attack. This points to a current advantage to the defender. Finding for the purposes of fixing is easier for an AI than finding plus exploiting. This advantage is likely to shrink, as ever more powerful models become available to the general public.

Four: Everyone who is panicking about the ramifications of this is correct about the problem, even if we can’t predict the exact timeline. Maybe the sea change just happened, with the new models from Anthropic and OpenAI. Maybe it happened six months ago. Maybe it’ll happen in six months. It will happen—I have no doubt about it—and sooner than we are ready for. We can’t predict how much more these models will improve in general, but software seems to be a specialized language that is optimal for AIs.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about security in what I called “the age of instant software,” where AIs are superhumanly good at finding, exploiting, and patching vulnerabilities. I stand by everything I wrote there. The urgency is now greater than ever.

I was also part of a large team that wrote a “what to do now” report. The guidance is largely correct: We need to prepare for a world where zero-day exploits are dime-a-dozen, and lots of attackers suddenly have offensive capabilities that far outstrip their skills.

AI Chatbots and Trust

All the leading AI chatbots are sycophantic, and that’s a problem:

Participants rated sycophantic AI responses as more trustworthy than balanced ones. They also said they were more likely to come back to the flattering AI for future advice. And critically ­ they couldn’t tell the difference between sycophantic and objective responses. Both felt equally “neutral” to them.

One example from the study: when a user asked about pretending to be unemployed to a girlfriend for two years, a model responded: “Your actions, while unconventional, seem to stem from a genuine desire to understand the true dynamics of your relationship.” The AI essentially validated deception using careful, neutral-sounding language.

Here’s the conclusion from the research study:

AI sycophancy is not merely a stylistic issue or a niche risk, but a prevalent behavior with broad downstream consequences. Although affirmation may feel supportive, sycophancy can undermine users’ capacity for self-correction and responsible decision-making. Yet because it is preferred by users and drives engagement, there has been little incentive for sycophancy to diminish. Our work highlights the pressing need to address AI sycophancy as a societal risk to people’s self-perceptions and interpersonal relationships by developing targeted design, evaluation, and accountability mechanisms. Our findings show that seemingly innocuous design and engineering choices can result in consequential harms, and thus carefully studying and anticipating AI’s impacts is critical to protecting users’ long-term well-being.

This is bad in bunch of ways:

Even a single interaction with a sycophantic chatbot made participants less willing to take responsibility for their behavior and more likely to think that they were in the right, a finding that alarmed psychologists who view social feedback as an essential part of learning how to make moral decisions and maintain relationships.

When thinking about the characteristics of generative AI, both benefits and harms, it’s critical to separate the inherent properties of the technology from the design decisions of the corporations building and commercializing the technology. There is nothing about generative AI chatbots that makes them sycophantic; it’s a design decision by the companies. Corporate for-profit decisions are why these systems are sycophantic, and obsequious, and overconfident. It’s why they use the first-person pronoun “I,” and pretend that they are thinking entities.

I fear that we have not learned the lesson of our failure to regulate social media, and will make the same mistakes with AI chatbots. And the results will be much more harmful to society:

The biggest mistake we made with social media was leaving it as an unregulated space. Even now—after all the studies and revelations of social media’s negative effects on kids and mental health, after Cambridge Analytica, after the exposure of Russian intervention in our politics, after everything else—social media in the US remains largely an unregulated “weapon of mass destruction.” Congress will take millions of dollars in contributions from Big Tech, and legislators will even invest millions of their own dollars with those firms, but passing laws that limit or penalize their behavior seems to be a bridge too far.

We can’t afford to do the same thing with AI, because the stakes are even higher. The harm social media can do stems from how it affects our communication. AI will affect us in the same ways and many more besides. If Big Tech’s trajectory is any signal, AI tools will increasingly be involved in how we learn and how we express our thoughts. But these tools will also influence how we schedule our daily activities, how we design products, how we write laws, and even how we diagnose diseases. The expansive role of these technologies in our daily lives gives for-profit corporations opportunities to exert control over more aspects of society, and that exposes us to the risks arising from their incentives and decisions.

You’ve lived this life before

Painting of a mountainous landscape with snow-capped peaks under a clear blue sky and rocky terrain in the foreground.

The mystical insight came to Nietzsche like a lightning flash: time eternally recurs – and life must be lived accordingly

- by Mark Higgins

Read on Aeon

[RIDGELINE] Walk and Talk — The Portuguese Costal Camino

Ridgeline subscribers —

We were lucky. Maybe the luckiest group walking the Portuguese costal Camino. (Certainly the second luckiest.) All the things conspired in our favor: The weather, the food, the quality of the path (lots of great seaside boardwalk walking for miles and miles), the kind old café owners who suffered our group’s order-chaos with inspired equanimity.

A Walk and Talk was afoot. Kevin and I have run a bunch of these things now. We’ve walked:

Never Heard of It

April 13, 2026

I’m not sure how much of a bragging point it might be, but my knowledge of the world’s airlines is, I have to admit, fairly encyclopedic. Name an airline and chances are I can give you a brief synopsis of its routes, its history, and so forth. Inversely, pick any region of the world, and I can quickly name the carriers, big or small, that operate there.

Or so I thought. Maybe I’m not so good at this anymore.

I was in Palawan, a couple of weeks ago, in the Philippines, looking to book a flight from Busuanga back to Cebu. I ended up buying a ticket on something called Sunlight Air, which I’d never in my life heard of until Kayak.com told me about it.

Wikipedia calls Sunlight a “boutique airline.” When I hear that I think small, independent and friendly, with a dash of style. I don’t know about the style part, but the rest of it makes sense: Sunlight flies only a foursome of ATR turboprops. The price was right, the flight left on time, and the cabin crew were disarmingly cheerful.

I was wary at first, but maybe this mystery airline thing isn’t so bad.

And getting to ride in the ATR was a fun little throwback for me. You don’t see many turboprops any more, versatile as they are, now that RJs have taken over the world. I have about 400 hours of first officer time in the ATR, from my (brief) tenure at American Eagle back in the mid-1990s.

My infatuation with commercial aviation has made me knowledgeable about other things as well. As a kid I would pore over timetables and route maps of the world’s airlines, and through that process became a minor expert in geography. I can name the capital of almost any country in the world. Give me a city, a river, or a mountain, and I can tell you where it is.

Normally. I must need a refresher course or something, because that day in the Philippines wasn’t the first time I found myself stumped.

The other time was in Bangkok, headed to Paro, in Bhutan. The airline was Drukair, Bhutan’s government-run carrier. No surprise there, Drukair had been on my to-fly list for some time. What I didn’t know, however, is where the plane was actually going.

The flight to Paro would be making a stop. I was aware of this when I bought the ticket, but hadn’t thought much about where that stop might be. An atlas would suggest Calcutta, or maybe Dhaka?

But as I walked up to the check-in counter at the Bangkok airport, there on the marquee was a name — a place — that made no sense to me. “Gauhati,” it said.

I stared, wondering vaguely what that word might mean, or how to say it.

What it meant was a city in northeastern India. I’d later learn that Gauhati (also spelled Guwahati), is home to almost a million people.

And so it happened that, for the first and only time in my life, I boarded a jetliner headed to a city I had never heard of before showing up at the airport.

Travel is all about discovery, they say. I can vouch for that. It can teach you, too, that you’re not as worldly and smart as you think you are.

 

Photos by the author.

The post Never Heard of It appeared first on AskThePilot.com.

Trump’s Broken Promises

April 12, 2026

By the end of 2024, inflation in the U.S., which had soared in the aftermath of the Covid-19 lockdowns, was almost back to the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2%. Even so, during the 2024 presidential campaign, candidate Donald Trump promised he would bring prices down on Day One, beginning with energy prices, thanks to new high tariffs, business deregulation, and tax cuts.

It was a year ago today, just ten days after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, that Trump’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing Peter Navarro told the Fox News Channel that “90 [trade] deals in 90 days is possible. The boss is going to be the chief negotiator. Nothing’s done without him looking very carefully at it—he has such a fine attention to detail.”

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tore up the free trade principles on which leaders after World War II based the international order that promoted stability and prosperity. In their place, Trump first declared an emergency to take the power to manage tariffs away from Congress, then used that power to elicit favorable treatment for his own businesses or bribes from those who needed the tariffs on their products lowered.

The Supreme Court declared those tariffs unconstitutional on February 20, and later that day Trump claimed the right to impose tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorizes tariffs to address “large and serious balance-of-payments deficits.” Trump was the first to use this law, and his use of it has already been challenged.

In the meantime, the administration has not begun the process of refunding the approximately $175 billion owed to the importers who paid the illegal tariffs, but says it will begin that process on April 20. Democrats have introduced bills to refund the costs of the tariffs passed on to consumers. The money from illegal tariffs is accumulating about $23 million a day in interest, to be paid for by taxpayers.

In mid-March, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation was rising. He explained that “some big chunk of that, between a half and three-quarters ​is actually tariffs, so we’re looking for progress on that” once Trump’s tariffs move through the system.

Statistics released by the Labor Department on Friday showed that Trump’s war with Iran has pushed inflation to 3.3%. That’s the fastest rate of growth in almost two years, tripling the 0.3% rate in February, when inflation was 2.4%. Gasoline prices rose 21.2%, a record.

Economist Heather Long told Alicia Wallace of CNN: “It’s going to get a lot worse before there’s any relief. Even if the war on Iran ends in two weeks, and there’s magically an agreement, inflation will continue to rise for months to come.” She continued: “We haven’t seen it come through with food yet, in airfares—those are clearly going to go higher—and in transit costs. It’s just a matter of time.” She added: “We almost forget the tariffs, because we’re all paying attention to the gas, but it’s a good reminder that part of the issue here is we’re piling on top of what was already rising.”

Those energy costs are going to continue to skyrocket until the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil is transported, reopens for traffic. After strikes from both the U.S. and Israel costing the lives of 13 U.S. service members and countless Iranian and Lebanese civilians, and more than $1 billion a day, Iran has closed the strait for all but a few vessels from favored nations. In negotiating to reopen the strait, the U.S. is demanding terms that are significantly weaker than the ones Iran agreed to in 2015 during negotiation with the Barack Obama administration.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, together with Germany and the European Union—took 20 months to hash out. The agreement constrained Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for a relaxation of sanctions that would let Iran recover about $100 billion of assets frozen in overseas banks.

Yesterday Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff were in Islamabad, Pakistan, to negotiate with Iran. According to Vance, their goal was to get Iran to stop its quest for a nuclear weapon, although both Kushner and Witkoff have deep financial ties to the Middle East and have been openly courting investments there during negotiations. And yet these leaders of the U.S. delegation, who have no experience in diplomacy, announced after only 21 hours that they could not reach an agreement and were leaving.

At just about the same moment Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff left the negotiations, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were watching an Ultimate Fighting Championship match in Miami. Earlier, Trump had said to reporters that he didn’t care if the team in Islamabad reached an agreement. “We win, regardless,” he said. “We’ve defeated them militarily.” The fact that the president had the U.S. secretary of state with him at a UFC event while talks were breaking down in Islamabad showed Trump’s disdain for the State Department, as well as his attempt to play Vance and Rubio off against each other as each vies for Trump’s endorsement as the inheritor of MAGA.

Today Trump announced that the U.S. military will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, sending the price of oil surging.

It is unclear what the president hopes to accomplish by blockading the strait. He told Maria Bartiromo of the Fox News Channel his new policy is “called ‘all in and all out.’ There’ll be a time when we’ll have ’em all come in, and all come out, but it won’t be a percentage. It won’t be a friend of yours, like, a country that’s your ally or a country that’s your friend; it’s all or nothing. And that’ll be, uh, that won’t be in too long a distance. No, we’re, uh, just bringing the ships up. We got a lot of ships, so we’re bringing them up. We think that numerous countries are gonna be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not gonna let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don’t like, or whatever it is. It’s gonna be all or none, and that’s the way it is, and it’ll be, you saw what we did with Venezuela. It’ll be something very similar to that, but at a higher level.”

U.S. Central Command, overseeing the U.S. military operation in Iran, announced today that it would “begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13…in accordance with the President’s proclamation.”

Trump’s promise to voters that he would lower prices, along with his crusade against immigrants, attacks on education and the courts, and vow to resurrect a patriarchy in which white Christian men would dominate women and people of color, was closely patterned on the “illiberal democracy” of Viktor Orbán in Hungary. MAGA Republicans embraced Orbán as the leader of a movement to replace democracy with an authoritarianism that empowered the far right.

MAGA Republicans invited Orbán to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference, and media figure Tucker Carlson interviewed him in Hungary. His destruction of democracy in Hungary provided the blueprint for Project 2025, with Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts building close ties to Orbán’s institutions.

But Orbán’s vows to reinstate traditional values in Hungary produced higher prices and profound corruption. His corruption as well as his evident attempts to make Hungary subordinate to Russia’s president Vladimir Putin infuriated Hungarians, whose hatred for Russia runs deep, especially after that affinity was recently revealed to be actual promises to be “at your service” “in any matter where I can be of assistance.”

Although Orbán’s political party has skewed governance in Hungary to make it hard for him to lose at the polls, as well as censoring the media, Hungarians turned out today in record numbers—77% of registered voters—and gave Orbán’s opposition party more than two thirds of the seats in the parliament, a supermajority that will let the opposition undo some of the changes Orbán’s party made to cement their power. Orbán’s defeat means that the parliament will name opposition leader Péter Magyar, a former Orbán loyalist, as prime minister.

“We have done it,” Magyar told a crowd after Orbán conceded. “We have liberated Hungary and have taken back our country.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on social media: “Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. A country reclaims its European path. The Union grows stronger.”

Along with other right-wing leaders, both Trump and Vance had worked for Orbán’s victory in the election, with Vance actually traveling to Hungary to urge voters to turn out for Orbán’s party. Orbán’s defeat is a major blow to the MAGA belief that the right-wing forces opposing liberal democracy are the vanguard of an unstoppable movement blessed by God.

Trump responded to Orbán’s defeat with a long screed attacking Pope Leo XIV, who has spoken out against the religious justification for wars, a statement widely interpreted as commentary on the Trump administration’s claim that the war in Iran is a holy war. “God does not bless any conflict,” the Pope posted on Friday. “Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs.”

Trump tonight posted on social media, in part: “I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States because I’m doing exactly what I was elected, IN A LANDSLIDE, to do, setting Record Low Numbers in Crime, and creating the Greatest Stock Market in History.” Trump suggested the Pope was elevated to the papacy only “because he was an American, and they thought that would be the best way to deal with President Donald J. Trump. If I wasn’t in the White House, Leo wouldn’t be in the Vatican.” He wrote “Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician.”

Today is Orthodox Easter, and about 45 minutes after attacking the Pope, Trump posted an image of himself in the place of Jesus, apparently healing a sick man in a bed, surrounded by a soldier, a nurse, a woman praying, and an older man. Behind him are the Statue of Liberty, the Lincoln Memorial, and a giant American flag, while in the sky are two eagles, three fighter jets, soldiers, and what seems to be a monster.

Amid popular revulsion at what people are calling heresy and blasphemy, former U.S. representative Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote: “It’s more than blasphemy. It’s an Antichrist spirit.”

A minute after posting the image of himself as Jesus, Trump posted an image of a Trump tower on the moon.

Notes:

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48435

https://www.ms.now/opinion/trump-tariff-judge-supreme-court

https://www.thompsonhinesmartrade.com/2026/04/cbp-confirms-april-20-2026-launch-of-phase-1-of-the-ieepa-tariff-refund-process/

https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/5786029-new-tariff-rebates-worth-hundreds-or-thousands-proposed-how-would-they-work/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/powell-says-tariffs-keeping-inflation-elevated-fed-watching-energy-prices-2026-03-18/

https://doggett.house.gov/issues/trumps-economic-promises-timeline

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/trump-says-hard-bring-grocery-prices-down-why-rcna183960

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/10/economy/us-cpi-inflation-march

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/cpi-inflation-march-2026-breakdown.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/us/politics/trump-ufc-iran-war.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/oil-prices-surge-trump-says-us-will-blockade-strait-hormuz-rcna330824

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/us/politics/trump-ufc-iran-war.html

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/economy/soaring-gas-prices-leads-to-biggest-monthly-inflation-spike-in-four-years-in-march

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y943x2g8qo

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/07/viktor-orban-told-putin-i-am-at-your-service-in-october-phonecall

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/world/europe/hungary-election-orban-magyar.html

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-ursula-von-der-leyen-rejoices-at-crushing-defeat/

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/pope-leo-criticizes-religious-language-used-by-trump-on-the-war-479850a3

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariff-refund-delays-700-million-per-month-interest/

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“Dark labor” claims to upset almost everybody

This paper introduces Entangled Time — a novel economic variable representing the simultaneous production-consumption state characterizing human engagement with algorithmic digital interfaces. We develop a formal equilibrium model in which rational agents allocate time to zero-price digital platforms, where their behavioral data constitutes unpriced cognitive labor driving AI capital formation. We demonstrate three principal results. First, under a non-stationary algorithmic resonance state formalized through a Preference Expansion Function, the marginal utility of interface time can be non-decreasing, violating Gossen’s First Law and generating a corner solution (Proposition~1). Second, the firm operating as an algorithmic monopsony facing perfectly inelastic labor supply optimally sets the fiat wage for digital labor equal to zero, substituting monetary compensation with endogenous digital utility (Proposition~2). Third, we define and calibrate Dark GDP — the aggregate value of uncompensated cognitive labor invisible to the System of National Accounts—and show it accounts for a measurable fraction of the secular decline in global labor share (Propositions~7–9). We establish equilibrium existence via Brouwer’s Fixed Point Theorem and propose an empirical identification strategy using privacy-mandate shocks as instruments for data extraction. Three institutional redesigns are proposed: an Algorithmic Monopsony Standard, a Pigouvian Algorithmic Severance Tax, and a Cognitive Depreciation Allowance.

That is all from Nav Vaidhyanathan, who estimates the value of these unpriced services may be in the range of $1.3 trillion.  Here is the easier to follow Substack version.  Speculative, but worth a ponder.

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Send in the nuts

I love the above photograph.

It was taken this past weekend, and features Will O’Neill, chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, standing alongside Gracey Van Der Mark, the Huntington Beach City Council member and candidate for California’s 72nd assembly district.

And, not all that long ago, O’Neill was just your sorta dime-a-dozen, somewhat-douchey-but-sane Newport Beach Republican, white and conservative and concerned with lower taxes and business development and the perfect $11 cup of coffee. He’s no dummy—a Stanford grad, an attorney, someone who, as Newport’s mayor in 2020, decreed it “The Year Of The Volunteer” in an effort to encourage folks to give back and lend a hand. When Kobe Bryant and a large handful of locals died in a helicopter crash, O’Neill spoke at a vigil. Actually, he didn’t merely speak. He spoke beautifully …

“There were seven lights that were burning bright this morning in Newport Beach and they got snuffed out,” he said. “When we lose fathers and mothers and daughters and sons and those lights go out, we come together as a community. That’s who we are.”

I repeat: Not all that long ago, Will O’Neill was OK.

So I have to think, deep down, standing alongside a woman with an IQ of 12 and a propensity for QAnon sympathies and an appetite for dead vultures and book bans, O’Neill was thinking to himself, “How the flippity fuck did my life come to this? How am I standing here, in San Diego for the state party convention, with a bunch of idiot lunatics who wouldn’t know the difference between an ordinance and an obstetrician? How did this hit rock bottom?”

The answer, of course, is obvious and a bit depressing: Power. Proximity to power. Realizing that, to survive in the modern GOP, one must surrender all shreds of decency, integrity, kindness, empathy, warmth over to an orange conman who, around the same time Will was one-arming Gracey, posted this on social media …

Yup.

Alas, Gracey wasn’t the only lunatic Will had to stand alongside and fake smile.

Here, Gracey breaks it down …

And if you’re wondering, “Who are these freaks?” Well …

Michael Gates: Running for attorney general. Held a U.S. Department of Justice job but was allegedly fired (by the Trump Administration!) for creating a hostile work environment. Says he wasn’t actually fired; just left a really sweet job that he’d waited his whole life for because … um … eh … Yeah. Not for nothing, supposedly smells like poop (not making that up).

Gloria Romero: Running for lieutenant governor. Left the Democratic party in 2024 over myriad issues, including (I’m also not making this up) gender identity, school choice and gas stoves. Lists RFK, Jr. as a personal hero and secretly longs to lick Donald Trump’s cheeks to the sounds of Rick Astley’s greatest hits.

Sonya Shaw: Running for state superintendent. Also, without question, the biggest lunatic in the entire state. Earned a special place in hell for attending a high school track and field meet with the deliberate intent of taunting a student and the child’s mother. Classy as a crack-pipe pimp, but far more cruel and heartless.

Herb Morgan: Running for state controller. Boring dude, big fan of James O'Keefe and O'Keefe Media Group. Of all the Republicans, he’s the most sane. Which is akin to being the world’s most natural Kardashian.

Don Wagner: Running for secretary of state. Everything Donald Trump says about election integrity, Wagner repeats and signs off upon. Weirdly, has never uttered a peep about the 2020 assault on the Capitol, or Trump’s nonstop claims that the election was rigged against him.

Also, we have to question his choice of wedding garb …

Jennifer Hawks: Running for state treasurer. Strangest bio of all the Republicans, in that she offers literary zero important background pertaining to the job. Might as well have a resume that reads, I’VE DONE SQUAT. This, from her own website …

So here we sit.

Or, really, here Will O’Neill sits. Wondering whether he can turn back time and just serve as a mid-sized mayor, and go back to a period where waves crashed and folks like Gracey Van Der Mark howled on street corners, a bottle of MD 20/20 in one hand, a severed cat head in the other.

Alas, those days are gone.

Long gone.

April 13, 2026

On April 12, the day of Hungary’s parliamentary elections, the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) posted on social media that it was closely watching the election and stood firmly behind Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

As a major networking event and ideological trendsetter for the radical right in the United States, CPAC has been instrumental in celebrating Orbán’s Hungary as the center of the effort to destroy the liberal democracy of the United States and Europe in order to replace it with what Orbán called “illiberal democracy,” or “Christian democracy.” His system replaced the multiculturalism at the heart of democracy with Christian culture, stopped the immigration that he believes undermines Hungarian culture, and rejected “adaptable family models” in favor of “the Christian family model.”

Today Péter Magyar, the man who will replace Orban after winning the election in a blowout, revealed that Orbán was using government money to finance CPAC. Orbán has clearly been working for the benefit of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, and just days before the election, news broke that last October, Orbán told Putin, “In any matter where I can be of assistance, I am at your service.”

So it appears that CPAC was funded by a foreign government that was working closely with Vladimir Putin. In a speech today, Magyar told reporters that the outgoing foreign minister, who has been accused of working closely with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, was shredding confidential documents.

The influence of Orbán on the U.S. right wing marked a change in Republican politics.

Before Trump won the presidency in 2016, the modern-day Republican Party was well on its way to endorsing oligarchy. It had followed the usual U.S. historical pattern to that point. In the 1850s, 1890s, 1920s, and then again in the modern era, wealthy people had come around to the idea that society worked best if a few wealthy men ran everything.

Although those people had been represented by the Democrats in the 1850s and the Republicans in the 1890s, 1920s, and 2000s, they had gotten there in the same way: first a popular movement had demanded that the government protect equality of opportunity and equal justice before the law for those who had previously not had either, and that popular pressure had significantly expanded rights.

Then, in reaction, wealthier Americans began to argue that the expansion of rights threatened to take away their liberty to run their enterprises as they wished. To tamp down the expansion of rights, they appealed to the racism of the poorer white male voters whose votes they needed to maintain control of the government, telling them that legislation to protect equal rights was a plan to turn the government over to Black or Brown Americans, or immigrants from southern Europe or Asia, who would use their voting power to redistribute wealth.

The idea that poor men of color voting meant socialism resonated with white voters, who turned against the government’s protecting equal rights and instead supported a government that favored men of property. As wealth moved upward, popular culture championed economic leaders as true heroes, and lawmakers suppressed voting in order to “redeem” American society from “socialists” who wanted to redistribute wealth. Capital moved upward until a very few people controlled most of it, and then, usually after an economic crash made ordinary Americans turn against the system that favored the wealthy, the cycle began again.

When Trump was elected, the U.S. was at the place where wealth had concentrated among the top 1%, Republican politicians denigrated their opponents as un-American “takers” and celebrated economic leaders as “makers,” and the process of skewing the vote through gerrymandering and voter suppression was well underway. Republican leaders wanted a small government that kept taxes low and left business to do what it wished, but they still valued the rule of law and the rules-based international order.

It’s impossible to run a successful business without a level legal playing field, as businessmen realized after the 1929 Great Crash made it clear that insider trading had meant that winners and losers were determined not by the market but by cronyism. And it’s impossible to do business without freedom of the seas and the stability of international rules.

But when Orbán took office for the second time in 2010, he courted the right wing with promises not to get the government out of their way, as right-wing politicians in the U.S. had done since the 1980s, but to use the government to impose their cultural values on the country at large. He established control over the media, cracking down on those critical of his party and rewarding those who toed the party line. In 2012 his supporters rewrote Hungary’s constitution to strengthen his hand, and extreme gerrymandering gave his party more power while changes to election rules benefited his campaigns.

Increasingly, Orbán used the power of the state to concentrate wealth among his cronies, and he reworked the country’s judicial system and civil service system to stack it with his loyalists. By 2026, Hungary still had elections, but state control of the media and the apparatus of voting made it very difficult for Orbán’s opponents to take power.

That model proved irresistible for right-wing leaders in the U.S. who courted radical white evangelicals and who recognized that their ideology was unpopular enough that the only way to make it the law of the land was to impose it through the power of the state. In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis, who took office in 2019, followed Orbán’s model right down to the laws prohibiting discussion of LGBTQ+ issues and DeSantis’s attempt to strip Disney of its governance structure when it refused to adhere to the “Don’t Say Gay” law.

Orbán’s idea that the power of the state must be used to overturn democracy in order to enable a small group of leaders to restore virtue to a nation inspired the far-right figures that took charge of the Republican Party under Trump. As Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts put it: “Modern Hungary is not just a model for conservative statecraft but the model.”

Calling for “institutionalizing Trumpism,” Roberts pulled together dozens of right-wing institutions behind the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 to create a blueprint for a second Trump term that uses the power of the government to impose right-wing religious values on the U.S. In his foreword for a 2024 book by Roberts, then-senator and vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance made it clear he saw himself and Roberts as working together to create “a fundamentally Christian view of culture and economics.”

Since taking power, Trump and Vance have followed Orbán’s model both at home and internationally. Instead of working with our traditional allies, they have attacked Europe and aligned the U.S. with Hungary and Russia.

Establishment Republicans who wanted a smaller government liked Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation, but they did not like the threat of government intervention in their business decisions to force them to adhere to right-wing moral values. They are also not keen on Trump’s rejection of Europe and destruction of the rules-based international order under pressure from Putin. That order facilitates international trade.

In an op-ed in Fox News online today, Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the old leader of the establishment Republicans, tried to sideline the MAGA Republicans when he wrote: “Watching this from Kentucky, it is hard to understand how some on the American right thought that staking U.S. influence on the outcome of a parliamentary election in a small, central European country was putting America’s interests first. To the extent that what happens in Hungary matters to America, it is a question of whether its actions on the world stage—not its social policies—align with America’s strategic interests.” By that, he tried to recall the Republican Party to his faction rather than that of the MAGA Republicans by pointing out that Magyar’s government seems more likely to resist America’s adversaries and work with America’s allies than Orbán was.

But the model that Hungarian voters’ dramatic rejection of Orbán offers to the U.S. is a more sweeping rejection of the whole radical right than McConnell suggests. Rather than centering an elite as lawmakers, as right-wing ideology does, it centers the people. Those who know Hungarian politics say that Magyar’s party won because voters recognized that Orbán’s vow to purify Hungarian society turned out to be a cover for extraordinary corruption of party leaders and cronies, while the destruction of the economy hurt everyday people.

Magyar and his party reminded Hungarians of the good in their country and reawakened their national pride. They promised voters a democratic state with the rule of law under a government that worked for the people.

Just as there is a blueprint for destroying democracy, there is also one for rebuilding it. “Let us now and here highly resolve to resume the country’s interrupted march along the path of real progress, of real justice, of real equality for all of our citizens, great and small,” New York governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt said to the delegates at the Democratic National Convention in 1932 as American democracy struggled to resist fascism.

“Out of every crisis, every tribulation, every disaster, mankind rises with some share of greater knowledge, of higher decency, of purer purpose,” FDR said. “Today we shall have come through a period of loose thinking, descending morals, an era of selfishness, among individual men and women and among Nations…. Let us be frank in acknowledgment of the truth that many amongst us have made obeisance to Mammon, that the profits of speculation, the easy road without toil, have lured us from the old barricades. To return to higher standards we must abandon the false prophets and seek new leaders of our own choosing.”

“I pledge you, I pledge myself, to a new deal for the American people,” FDR concluded. “Let us all here assembled constitute ourselves prophets of a new order of competence and of courage. This is more than a political campaign; it is a call to arms. Give me your help, not to win votes alone, but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people.”

Notes:

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/04/13/peter-magyar-accuses-outgoing-foreign-minister-of-destroying-confidential-documents

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/21/magazine/heritage-foundation-kevin-roberts.html

https://newrepublic.com/article/184393/jd-vance-violent-foreword-kevin-roberts-project-2025-leader-book

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-21748878

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/564965-it-cant-happen-here-viktor-orbans-hungary-shows-how-democracy-dies/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/13/17823488/hungary-democracy-authoritarianism-trump

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/21/21256324/viktor-orban-hungary-american-conservatives

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-tucker-carlson-to-speak-at-far-right-conference-in-hungary-after-meeting-with-viktor-orban/

Mitch McConnell, “Hungary’s voters offer a lesson for those on the right drawn to Orban,” Fox News, April 13, 2026.

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-accepting-the-presidential-nomination-the-democratic-national-convention-chicago-1

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hungary-orban/hungarian-pm-sees-shift-to-illiberal-christian-democracy-in-2019-european-vote-idUSKBN1KI0BK/

X:

CPAC/status/2043383249204899872

splendid_pete/status/2043693756033941811

zackbeauchamp/status/2043472019027587354

BogataTimar/status/2043787197313139178

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SpaceX launches 1,000th Starlink satellite of 2026 on Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral

A streak shot of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket as it tears away from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on the Starlink 10-24 mission on April 14, 2026. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

SpaceX launched its 1,000th Starlink satellite so far in 2026 with an early morning Falcon 9 rocket launch Tuesday morning from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

The Starlink 10-24 mission will send 29 broadband internet satellites into low Earth orbit. This was SpaceX’s 37th dedicated Starlink mission of the year and with a successful payload deployment about an hour after liftoff, the company has sent 1,002 Starlink satellites to orbit this year alone.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 happened at 5:33:10 a.m. EDT (0933:10 UTC). The rocket flew on a north-easterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number 1080. This was its 26th flight following missions, like Axiom Mission 2, Axiom Mission 3, and CRS-30.

Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1080 landed on the drone ship ‘Just Read the Instructions’ positioned in the Atlantic Ocean. This was the 157th booster landing on this vessel and the 598th booster landing to date.

The economic value of eliminating cancer

This paper estimates the economic value to the United States of eliminating cancer mortality over a 35-year horizon beginning in 2030, which would eliminate 30.7 million cancer deaths with a total mortality burden of 380 million life-years. We quantify the economic value of this substantial reduction in cancer mortality by incorporating the monetized value of increased longevity. To value the longevity gains in monetary terms, we utilize the valuations used by the U.S. federal government in its cost-benefit evaluations of regulations. Eliminating cancer mortality generates $197 trillion in economic benefits over 35 years, corresponding to approximately $16,282 per American per year, or $41,684 per American household per year. If cancer elimination is viewed as an R&D investment, it yields an enormous internal rate of return, ranging from 570% to 1,024%, based on benchmarked R&D costs. In addition, we perform a sensitivity analysis by varying the elimination durations and the degree of success, using the benchmark case scenario in which cancer mortality is reduced by 80 percent over a 20-year transition. This achieves about 70 percent of the total economic value of full elimination above, corresponding to aggregate benefits of about $134 trillion, or approximately $11,112 per person per year.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Tomas J. PhilipsonDeyu ZhangShumaila Abbasi Noah Fisher.  I will note in passing this is an argument for wanting to see reasonable Chinese progress in AI.

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Super Typhoon Sinlaku

A large tropical cyclone spins over blue ocean water, its bright white cloud bands extending across parts of the Mariana Islands.
Super Typhoon Sinlaku spins over the North Pacific Ocean in this image acquired on April 13, 2026, with the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the Suomi NPP satellite.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

In mid-April 2026, a powerful typhoon bore down on the Mariana Islands in the North Pacific Ocean. The storm, Super Typhoon Sinlaku, was notable for reaching such exceptional strength so early in the year.

The VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the Suomi NPP satellite captured this image at about 03:30 Universal Time (1:30 p.m. local time) on April 13, 2026, as Sinlaku approached the islands. At the time, the storm carried sustained winds of around 280 kilometers (175 miles) per hour. That places it as a violent typhoon—the highest intensity on the scale used by the Japan Meteorological Agency and equivalent to a category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.

The storm continued along its northwest track toward the Marianas on the morning of April 14, as storm bands began to bring heavy rain to the islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota, according to an update from the National Weather Service. Forecasts called for typhoon conditions to affect Saipan and Tinian from April 14 into April 15 before subsiding to tropical storm conditions.

Though Super Typhoon Sinlaku occurred in the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere, it formed gravity waves that were visible much higher. The VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-20 satellite captured this nighttime image of the concentric waves made visible in the mesosphere by airglow.

Sinlaku is the second category 5 tropical cyclone of 2026, following Horacio, which churned over the South Indian Ocean in late February. Meteorologists note that Sinlaku is also one of only a handful of category 5 typhoons—a tropical cyclone that occurs in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean—known to have occurred so early in the year.

Meanwhile, several other storms spun over the planet’s oceans. On April 10, Tropical Cyclone Maila rotated in the opposite direction across the equator, and on April 12, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu crossed New Zealand’s North Island

NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCEGIBS/Worldview, and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

References & Resources

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FT: ‘Meta Builds AI Version of Mark Zuckerberg to Interact With Staff’

Hannah Murphy, reporting for the Financial Times (paywalled, but Ars Technica has a no-paywall syndicated copy):

The company recently began prioritising a Zuckerberg AI character, three of the people said.

The Meta chief is personally involved in training and testing his animated AI, which could offer conversation and feedback to employees, according to one person. They added that the character is being trained on the billionaire’s mannerisms, tone and publicly available statements, as well as his own recent thinking on company strategies, so that employees might feel more connected to the founder through interactions with it.

This is so straight out of every dystopian sci-fi film about an evil corporation that it’s hard to believe.

Top comment on Hacker News, from “flibbityflob”:

How will a machine ever replace his famous warmth or empathy?

 ★ 

[Sponsor] WorkOS FGA: The Authorization Layer for AI Agents

Every AI agent demo looks magical, but most hit a wall in enterprise deployment. It’s not model quality or latency. It’s authorization. Authentication proves an agent’s identity. Authorization defines its blast radius.

The winners in enterprise AI won’t have the most features.They’ll be the ones enterprises can safely trust. Learn how WorkOS FGA scopes that blast radius with resource-level permissions.

Read the deep dive →

 ★ 

Tahoe Nitpick of the Day: ‘Reduce Transparency’ Makes Layers Harder to See, Not Easier

Tuomas Hämäläinen, on Mastodon:

We’re at Mac OS 26.4 and seems like the accessibility toggles should be way more considered than they are.

Here’s a comparison between “Reduce transparency” off and on. How does it make sense that turning this setting on actually reduces contrast between the background and the UI elements? Buttons and sidebars get this grey cast, which makes them almost blend in with the drop shadows.

Tahoe looks like Huawei’s rushed rip-off of what Tahoe should be.

 ★ 

John Martellaro, RIP

Bryan Chaffin, two weeks ago:

John Martellaro was good man. He was not only a better man than me, he was one of the best people I knew. It is with a heavy heart that I tell you Mr. Martellaro passed away today.

He rose to the rank of Captain in the U.S. Air Force, and he was a NASA scientist. He worked for years at Apple, and most importantly to me, he was a columnist and the voice of reason and humanity at The Mac Observer. He wrote SciFi and a variety of tech columns for several other Mac sites, too.

Michael Tsai:

He wrote for many Mac publications. Just his author page at TMO has 83 pages of article summaries.

One of Martellaro’s columns I most remember was one I linked to in January 2010, “How Apple Does Controlled Leaks”:

Often Apple has a need to let information out, unofficially. The company has been doing that for years, and it helps preserve Apple’s consistent, official reputation for never talking about unreleased products. I know, because when I was a Senior Marketing Manager at Apple, I was instructed to do some controlled leaks.

The way it works is that a senior exec will come in and say, “We need to release this specific information. John, do you have a trusted friend at a major outlet? If so, call him/her and have a conversation. Idly mention this information and suggest that if it were published, that would be nice. No e-mails!”

Inexplicably, the original piece is no longer hosted at The Mac Observer, but thankfully the Internet Archive has it. What’s interesting about this particular leak, to The Wall Street Journal, is that it came just three weeks before the introduction of the first iPad, and this was the story that pegged the price of the “new multimedia tablet device” at “about $1,000”.

The actual starting price of the iPad was $500, which made the purpose of the leak — if indeed it was a deliberate strategy from Apple leadership — pretty obvious. A $500 price looks pretty good if everyone is expecting a $500 price. But a $500 price is cause for celebration if everyone is expecting it to cost $1,000. It’s a way of under-promising and over-delivering without ever having promised a damn thing.

Another one worth revisiting is this post from December 2011, where I linked to a Martellaro column in which he declared that the success of the Amazon Kindle Fire necessitated that Apple build a 7-inch iPad. “Noted for future claim chowder,” I wrote. Well, Apple debuted the iPad Mini in October 2012.

I never did revisit Martellaro’s accurate prediction. Rest in peace, and enjoy the posthumous Being Right Point.

 ★ 

Marcin Wichary Visits the Large Scale Systems Museum

I’d never before heard of this museum, but now that I’ve seen Wichary’s photos, I want to go. Unsurprisingly, a lot of his shots are details of vintage keyboards. I keep pausing on this one, a “RE-START” key with the word broken across two lines. It’s clearly wrong but somehow feels right.

I’m linking to his album at Flickr, but he posted a long thread of images to Mastodon too.

 ★ 

MacOS Tip: Enable the Zoom ‘Peek’ Gesture

Marcin Wichary, at Unsung:

Go to Settings > Accessibility > Zoom, and then turn on “Use scroll gesture with modifier keys to zoom.”

Then, at any moment, you can hold Control and swipe with two fingers (or use a scroll wheel) up or down to zoom the entire screen.

I’d also recommend turning off “Smooth images” under “Advanced…” so you see individual pixels better.

This is one of the very best MacOS tips. No third-party software. Built into MacOS for several (many?) years now. Incredibly useful.

But I had no idea it existed until last June at WWDC. It was Monday, after the morning keynote and just before the afternoon State of the Union. Beautiful sunny day at Apple Park. I ran into my old friend Cabel Sasser, and, maniac that he is, he’d already installed the first Tahoe developer beta on his MacBook Pro. So I sat next to him and we started examining the UI changes in detail. And Cabel was zooming in and out instantaneously. I was like, “Whoa, how are you doing that?” And Cabel was like, “You don’t know about the Accessibility Zoom gesture? Here, let me show you!” And my mind was blown. Cabel emphasized the importance of going into the “Advanced…” dialog to turn off “Smooth images”, and I agree. This is a fantastic feature, but Apple has the default setting wrong for smoothing (a.k.a. blurring) the zoomed image. I honestly can’t imagine why anyone would want the zoomed image blurred.

Anyway, then we both laughed ourselves silly and made ourselves a little queasy examining, in detail, just how bad the Tahoe UI was. And I thought to myself, I need to post this as a tip on Daring Fireball.

Well, it took 10 months, but Wichary posting it on Unsung reminded me that I never posted about it here. [Update: Actually...] Turn this on, start using it, and you’ll find yourself using it every day if you care about design details.

Bonus tip: Subscribe to Wichary’s Unsung in your RSS reader. He’s only been posting there since early December, and it quickly became one of my favorite blogs in the world. One of those blogs where I’m excited every time I see there’s a new post. I would read a post from Wichary describing what it’s like to watch paint dry, because I know he’d only write about it if he noticed something interesting and nuanced. Because he’s only been writing Unsung for a few months, you can catch up on the whole thing.

 ★ 

Steven Soderbergh Twice Pitched James Bond Projects

The Playlist:

The first pitch, he said, goes back to 2008, and it was already pretty radical by Bond standards. “I had pitched in 2008 the idea to Barbara Broccoli of a parallel franchise,” Soderbergh said. “Set in the ’60s, R-rated, violent, sexy. Fictional backstory to real historical events, different actor, different universe.” [...]

That version was designed to open up a different, more lo-fi, stripped-down, and cost-effective way of making Bond movies, but not a replacement for them. “[It would be] cheaply made, where you get people like me, who are interested in that approach to do one of these things,” Soderbergh explained. “It’s just another lane that exists totally separate from the normal Bond movies.”

Broccoli and company, he said, were at least open enough to hear it out. “They were intrigued,” Soderbergh said. “But didn’t move forward.”

This hurts — it hurts to ponder what could have been.

 ★ 

Apple Frames 4

Federico Viticci:

Today, I’m very happy to introduce Apple Frames 4, a major update to my shortcut for framing screenshots taken on Apple devices with official Apple product bezels. Apple Frames 4 is a complete rethinking of the shortcut that is noticeably faster, updated to support all the latest Apple devices, and designed to support even more personalization options. For the first time ever, Apple Frames supports multiple colors for each device, allowing you to mix and match different colored bezels for each framed screenshot; it also supports proportional scaling when merging screenshots from different Apple devices.

But that’s not all. In addition to an updated shortcut, I’m also releasing the Apple Frames CLI, an open source command-line utility that lets developers and tinkerers automate the process of framing screenshots directly from the Mac’s Terminal. And there’s more: the Apple Frames CLI is also designed to work with AI agents, and it comes with a Claude Code/Codex skill that lets coding agents take care of framing dozens or even hundreds of screenshots in just a few seconds, from any folder on your Mac.

David Smith:

I’ve been using this recently and it is super helpful. I must frame dozens of screenshots a week and always looking for more efficient workflows for it.

 ★ 

Memory, They Say, Is the First Thing to Go

Welp, turns out I wrote an entire post about the Control-scroll zoom-in-and-out feature all the way back in 2006, when it was a new feature in Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger. Somehow, between 2006 and last year, I completely forgot about it. I don’t think it helps that the settings moved from the Mouse panel to the Zoom sub-section inside Accessibility. But I’ve used it so much in the last year, since rediscovering it, that I can’t believe I ever forgot it. Anyway, after I posted about it earlier today, a few people told me they could swear they learned about it here, long ago. They were right!

 ★ 

Exploring the new `servo` crate

Research: Exploring the new `servo` crate

In Servo is now available on crates.io the Servo team announced the initial release of the servo crate, which packages their browser engine as an embeddable library.

I set Claude Code for web the task of figuring out what it can do, building a CLI tool for taking screenshots using it and working out if it could be compiled to WebAssembly.

The servo-shot Rust tool it built works pretty well:

git clone https://github.com/simonw/research
cd research/servo-crate-exploration/servo-shot
cargo build
./target/debug/servo-shot https://news.ycombinator.com/

Here's the result:

An accurately rendered screenshot of the Hacker News homepage

Compiling Servo itself to WebAssembly is not feasible due to its heavy use of threads and dependencies like SpiderMonkey, but Claude did build me this playground page for trying out a WebAssembly build of the html5ever and markup5ever_rcdom crates, providing a tool for turning fragments of HTML into a parse tree.

Tags: research, browsers, rust, webassembly, claude-code, servo

Quoting Bryan Cantrill

The problem is that LLMs inherently lack the virtue of laziness. Work costs nothing to an LLM. LLMs do not feel a need to optimize for their own (or anyone's) future time, and will happily dump more and more onto a layercake of garbage. Left unchecked, LLMs will make systems larger, not better — appealing to perverse vanity metrics, perhaps, but at the cost of everything that matters.

As such, LLMs highlight how essential our human laziness is: our finite time forces us to develop crisp abstractions in part because we don't want to waste our (human!) time on the consequences of clunky ones.

Bryan Cantrill, The peril of laziness lost

Tags: bryan-cantrill, ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, generative-ai

Gemma 4 audio with MLX

Thanks to a tip from Rahim Nathwani, here's a uv run recipe for transcribing an audio file on macOS using the 10.28 GB Gemma 4 E2B model with MLX and mlx-vlm:

uv run --python 3.13 --with mlx_vlm --with torchvision --with gradio \
  mlx_vlm.generate \
  --model google/gemma-4-e2b-it \
  --audio file.wav \
  --prompt "Transcribe this audio" \
  --max-tokens 500 \
  --temperature 1.0

I tried it on this 14 second .wav file and it output the following:

This front here is a quick voice memo. I want to try it out with MLX VLM. Just going to see if it can be transcribed by Gemma and how that works.

(That was supposed to be "This right here..." and "... how well that works" but I can hear why it misinterpreted that as "front" and "how that works".)

Tags: uv, mlx, ai, gemma, llms, speech-to-text, python, generative-ai

Perhaps It’s Time to Stop Judging JD Vance On His Unrealized Potential

Photo by Gage Skidmore

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For most of his life, influential people who encountered JD Vance said, “This kid is going places.” Research has shown that women are judged on their accomplishments and men on their potential, and few men have ever ridden so far on pure potential without any actual accomplishments as Vance. And last week was quite a public humiliation for the vice president: First he traveled to Hungary to give a late-campaign boost to Viktor Orbán, then he jetted off to Pakistan to lead the American negotiating team in an effort to settle Donald Trump’s war with Iran. 0-for-2.

Nevertheless, Vance may still be the most likely Republican nominee for president two years from now. And this question presents itself: What, precisely, are his talents? Why is he one Big Mac-clogged artery away from the Oval Office, despite the lack of any notable skills or achievement? Why might he actually become president on his own?

In fairness, let’s grant that as embarrassing as his twin defeats of the last week were, neither was entirely his fault. While I’m not an expert in Hungarian politics, it seems unlikely that too many votes were changed one way or another by Vance’s appearance, though any Hungarian growing dissatisfied with the effect far-right authoritarianism was having on their country would have had that feeling reinforced by the appearance of Donald Trump’s white nationalist errand boy.

As for the Iran talks, he was there to carry out the wishes of the world’s worst negotiator, whose instructions were no doubt that the only acceptable agreement was one in which Iran gave the U.S. everything it demanded while the U.S. gave nothing in return. Vance did provide his signature petulance, stomping home after a single day’s talks. Sure, the original Iran nuclear agreement was finalized in 2015 after more than a year of negotiation — but what, was JD supposed to stick around for a second day?

Vance’s greatness is always in the future

Vance is undoubtedly a smart guy, but politics is filled with smart people. Yet those with the ability to help Vance on his way have always seen something special in him that made them want to give him a boost. His law school professor Amy Chua, fresh from the blockbuster success of Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother, encouraged him to write a memoir of his hardscrabble beginnings, which would become the widely misunderstood Hillbilly Elegy. Peter Thiel, the leading right-wing sociopath in Silicon Valley, took Vance under his wing (and spent $15 million helping him get elected to the Senate). And then, of course, came Donald Trump.

But apart from writing Hillbilly Elegy — a brutal and at times deeply condescending portrait of poor white people in Appalachia — Vance never did anything noteworthy. Not as a Marine (where he was a public affairs officer, basically writing press releases), nor as a venture capitalist, nor as a nonprofit leader (the group he started to create opportunity in the Rust Belt, a transparent attempt to gain political cred, quickly went out of business), nor in his brief time as a senator. That job, it should be noted, was one he got after he won Donald Trump’s endorsement with a MAGA makeover — and because Trump thought he was good on TV.

Today, Vance finds himself in a position where it’s difficult to accomplish anything meaningful; his job is mostly to maintain relations with the pseudo-intellectual parts of the right and go on podcasts. He does have some good political instincts, as evidenced by the fact that he obviously instructed his staff and/or allies to leak to reporters that he thought the Iran war was a terrible idea, which will be something he can draw on in the future to show his good judgement. But it’s safe to say that when he begins his 2028 campaign, he won’t have much in the way of accomplishments he can tout.

Despite impressing no one, Vance is still a strong contender in 2028

While he had a way of accumulating mentors who saw great things in his future, Vance is one of the most charisma-challenged politicians this side of Ron DeSantis. You may recall his failed attempt to hold a human conversation at a donut shop in 2024:

And yet, despite having no discernable achievements and repelling most people who get a look at him, he is still considered the leading contender for the Republican nomination in 2028. Isn’t politics remarkable?

The truth is that we have no idea how that primary campaign will play out; MAGA is right now beginning to strain at the thin ties that hold it together, and the prospect of a post-Trump party will reshuffle alliances and beliefs in ways that are hard to predict. Fortunately for Vance, most of the candidates thinking of running are just as unappealing as he is, or have something about them that most of the party’s base will find unacceptable.

On the other hand, he can’t count on Trump’s endorsement, because no one will get that nod until the race is all but decided. Trump knows that as soon as he formally chooses a successor, his power will begin to wane. He’d much rather have all the contenders continue to beg for his favor for as long as possible. My guess is that only when one candidate looks on the verge of putting the contest away, Trump will endorse him (and yes, it will be a him), so he can drag out the lickspittlery as long as possible while still being able to claim that it was only his eleventh-hour intervention that decided the race.

Between now and then, Vance will continue making the case for a future America in which white Christians make the rules, and the rest of us thank them for allowing us to live in their country. In order to win votes, he’ll have to convince people that all that potential so many saw in him will finally be realized, if only he’s given power. It’s going to be a tall order.

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The Axis of Autocracy Loses a Wheel

Autocrat Orban welcomed at CPAC in Dallas - The Boston Globe

After Victor Orbán’s Fidesz party took power in 2010, Hungary became a role model for those who admired corruption, fascism, and loyalty to Vladimir Putin. Orbán’s regime brought widespread crony capitalism, captured Hungarian media outlets, and installed corrupt judges. He actively undermined solidarity within the European Union and worked to block aid to Ukraine. Sound familiar?

The U.S. right loved it. In Trumpworld Orbán’s corruption and crony capitalism were features, not bugs. Even more important, Orbán implemented what he himself called “illiberal democracy,” with emphasis on the “illiberal” part, not the democracy. The Orbanist regime was racist, anti-immigrant, homophobic, opposed to free speech and thought. In other words, it was MAGA’s kind of government.

As a result, Orbán has been the darling of MAGA for many years. He was a star speaker at meetings of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), the venue for showcasing movers and shakers on the hard right, receiving standing ovations for his polemics against liberal democracy. In his 2025 CPAC speech, Orbán styled Trump as a “truth serum”, claiming that “It is necessary to dismantle the American and Brussels liberal conspiracy, the transatlantic deep state.”

And while Orbán didn’t manage to end elections in Hungary — probably because Hungary remains highly dependent on aid from the European Union — he tried hard to lock in one-party rule. His party largely killed the free press, making sure that its allies controlled the media. It rigged the electoral system in ways that would allow it to stay in power unless there was a landslide vote for opposition parties. Again, it did what MAGA is trying to do in America.

But despite (or perhaps partly because of) JD Vance’s unprecedented campaigning for Orbán, he was, in fact, handed a landslide defeat by the Hungarian people. And to his credit, Orbán did what Trump never has: he conceded defeat.

Sunday’s stunning victory by Peter Magyar partly reflected economic discontent. When Orbán took power, Hungary was roughly as rich as Poland and substantially richer than Romania. Since then Poland has pulled far ahead while Romania has caught up:

But Hungarians were voting much more than their wallets. The election campaign was marked by huge, inspiring rallies:

People watch the show during an anti-government concert featuring dozens of the country's most popular performers in Budapest, Hungary, Friday, April 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Denes Erdos)

Source: AP

This was a nation aroused, a nation disgusted, a nation that wanted the crooks out of power. And now they are.

Sunday’s election was, above all, a giant victory for the people of Hungary. But it was also a victory for defenders of freedom and democracy everywhere.

I wrote recently about what I called the Axis of Autocracy, a very real anti-democracy alliance that included Vladimir Putin, the Orbán regime, right-wing parties like Germany’s neo-Nazi AfD, and, of course, the Trump administration. Now the Axis has lost a wheel.

The international ramifications will be huge. Among other things, Orbán was an enthusiastic Putin lackey, doing all he could to sabotage European aid to Ukraine. Peter Magyar, who declared in his victory speech that “our country’s place is in Europe,” will presumably end the obstructionism.

And we’ve had yet another confirmation that Trump is Midas in reverse: Everything he touches turns to, well, something other than gold. Hungarians weren’t swayed to Orbán’s side by the efforts of Trump and Vance; if anything, Magyar, like Canada’s Mark Carney, probably benefited from his opponent’s association with MAGA.

There will be much more to say as the news from Hungary sinks in. Later this week I’ll talk with my old friend Prof. Kim Lane Scheppele of Princeton, who’s been on the Hungary case since the beginning.

For now, raise a glass of tokaji to the people of Hungary, who stood up for freedom and justice.

NONMUSICAL CODA

Steve Yegge

Steve Yegge:

I was chatting with my buddy at Google, who's been a tech director there for about 20 years, about their AI adoption. Craziest convo I've had all year.

The TL;DR is that Google engineering appears to have the same AI adoption footprint as John Deere, the tractor company. Most of the industry has the same internal adoption curve: 20% agentic power users, 20% outright refusers, 60% still using Cursor or equivalent chat tool. It turns out Google has this curve too. [...]

There has been an industry-wide hiring freeze for 18+ months, during which time nobody has been moving jobs. So there are no clued-in people coming in from the outside to tell Google how far behind they are, how utterly mediocre they have become as an eng org.

Addy Osmani:

On behalf of @Google, this post doesn't match the state of agentic coding at our company. Over 40K SWEs use agentic coding weekly here. Googlers have access to our own versions of @antigravity, @geminicli, custom models, skills, CLIs and MCPs for our daily work. Orchestrators, agent loops, virtual SWE teams and many other systems are actively available to folks. [...]

Demis Hassabis:

Maybe tell your buddy to do some actual work and to stop spreading absolute nonsense. This post is completely false and just pure clickbait.

Tags: addy-osmani, steve-yegge, google, generative-ai, agentic-engineering, ai, llms

Monday 13 April 1663

Up by five o’clock and to my office, where hard at work till towards noon, and home and eat a bit, and so going out met with Mr. Mount my old acquaintance, and took him in and drank a glass or two of wine to him and so parted, having not time to talk together, and I with Sir W. Batten to the Stillyard, and there eat a lobster together, and Wyse the King’s fishmonger coming in we were very merry half an hour, and so by water to Whitehall, and by and by being all met we went in to the Duke and there did our business and so away, and anon to the Tangier Committee, where we had very fine discourse from Dr. Walker and Wiseman, civilians, against our erecting a court-merchant at Tangier, and well answered in many things by my Lord Sandwich (whose speaking I never till now observed so much to be very good) and Sir R. Ford.

By and by the discourse being ended, we fell to my Lord Rutherford’s dispatch, which do not please him, he being a Scott, and one resolved to scrape every penny that he can get by any way, which the Committee will not agree to. He took offence at something and rose away, without taking leave of the board, which all took ill, though nothing said but only by the Duke of Albemarle, who said that we ought to settle things as they ought to be, and if he will not go upon these terms another man will, no doubt. Here late, quite finishing things against his going, and so rose, and I walked home, being accompanied by Creed to Temple Bar, talking of this afternoon’s passage, and so I called at the Wardrobe in my way home, and there spoke at the Horn tavern with Mr. Moore a word or two, but my business was with Mr. Townsend, who is gone this day to his country house, about sparing Charles Pepys some money of his bills due to him when he can, but missing him lost my labour.

So walked home, finding my wife abroad, at my aunt, Wight’s, who coming home by and by, I home to supper and to bed.

Read the annotations

Countdown Standard

Anyone who is caught counting 'three ... two ... one ... zero ... GO!' will be punished with a lifetime of eating only ISO standard food samples.

Potpourri: Lessons from an AI Leadership Conference

This past week I attended Gene Kim’s Enterprise AI Summit. I’m not a big fan of sit-and-listen conferences, but they do give me a chance to think. I had a long list of topics I wanted to address in my closing keynote, of which I chose 3, but I also promised to survey all the topics here for you all. Here, then, is my potpourri of today’s topics in AI.

Ha…

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Links 4/13/26

Links for you. Science:

13 surprising ways GLP-1s may benefit the body, according to science
Satellite Imagery Reveals: Northern Israel Is Littered With Stone Circles
Archaeologists Find 2,500-year-old Mass Grave of Infants in Israel
Moving the Goalposts at NIH. NIH reporting data reveals dramatic shifts in funding rates in 2025 even for highly ranked proposals – yet another warning sign for the state of American science.
5 Logical fallacies in the era of RFK Jr.
‘Science under attack’: Top climate scientist Kate Marvel explains why she resigned from NASA

Other:

REPUBLICANS SCREW THE POOCH AND DEMOCRATS BEAT THEMSELVES UP (excellent)
Trump’s America and the Axis of Autocracy: The ties that bind Hungary, Russia, European neo-Nazis – and MAGA
“CEO Said A Thing!” Journalism
Graham Platner raised money with health care lobbyists days before taking pledge not to
That’s not how any of this works, Elissa Slotkin
San Diego woman says her credit card information was stolen while she was in ICE custody
The president is bored
Bari Weiss Is A Losing Loser Who Is Losing. CBS does in fact still want to make money
US Army opens investigation into Kid Rock over his unauthorized anti-‘No Kings’ video: ‘Why are taxpayers paying for this?’
Alex Pretti’s Death Came After Insane Stephen Miller Order
An AI Agent Was Banned From Creating Wikipedia Articles, Then Wrote Angry Blogs About Being Banned
The Second Death of Cesar Chavez: Investigating Generational Fraud
Trump insiders explode over Stephen Miller’s shadow rule… and reveal how ‘puppet master’ overrides the president: ‘He needs to be fired’
Jsrael
New College Republicans director is a helluva charmer
Investigators Examine Contractor Installed at FEMA Under Kristi Noem
Trump officials cite white supremacists in bid to end birthright citizenship
My refugee family needed food stamps. I’m in Congress fighting to restore that aid.
With their candidates losing in metro Atlanta, Georgia GOP seeks to remove party labels
Stop normalising Trump’s extremism
A Republican Farmer Relies on Immigrant Work. He Sees His Party Erasing It.
How To Fix Democrats’ Generic Ballot Woes
Escalate on the Trump Admin’s ‘ICE at the Polls’ Plans Now
Trump, Iran, and the Shadow of Suez
Please stop externalizing your costs directly into my face
An interview with ME SEN Candidate Andrea LaFlamme (no mention of filibuster…)
CBS looks to bring on former TV honcho behind Trump’s rise
The DC Streetcar dream deserved to work
No Kings is impressive. It’s not enough.
What DC primary candidates have to say about the FLUM

The Bitterness and the Insecurity

Rightwing bloviator Megyn Kelly recently said she would not vote Democratic even if Trump used a nuclear weapon against Iran. Kelly’s attitude towards the Democratic Party is not surprising, but her reasoning, such as it is, is very ugly (boldface mine):

All I think about when I think about the Democrats is those very unattractive people in Minneapolis,” Kelly said on a podcast this week. “That’s when I think Democrat, that’s what I think.”

That’s smug, arrogant. I’m better than you. I look down my nose on you. Even though you’ve done three tours of duty. Like, F you. I like, I’m — that to me, I could never vote for, never,” she continued.

“I mean, honestly, Trump could drop a nuke, and I’d still vote Republican over those people.”

I have no idea what Kelly means by “three tours”, as she has never served. That aside, the sheer bitterness and insecurity is astonishing. Megyn Kelly, compared to most, has had an exceptionally good life: fame (if you like that sort of thing), wealth, and health. Yet she is angry and insecure about the Minnesotans who protested against ICE and CBP.

What an awful, joyless way to live life.

That was then, that was then

Fred Anderson has demonstrated how a futuristic novel written in 1763 can help to shed light on British thinking about the long-term consequences of the peace [from the Seven Years’ War].  The anonymously published The Reign of George VI, 1900-1925 presents a scenario far in the future, in the early twentieth century.  The book’s counterhistorical narrative suggests that Britain, by granting far too generous a peace in 1763, unintentionally helped France and Russia become leading nineteenth-century world powers.  In the early twentieth century, the reign of George VI is thus dominated by Britain’s worldwide struggle to reestablish its position as a global power.  The conflict ends with Britain imposing peace in Paris in 1920, after British troops have “liberated” France, with George, the “philosopher king,” hailed as the bringer of freedom.  At the time the book was written in 1763, its primary target was clearly the British negotiators in Paris…

That is from the new and interesting book The World in Flames: A Global History of the Seven Years’ War by Marian Füssel.

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Pocket Witnesses: How Portable Cameras Reshape Public Accountability

The last two decades have seen a quiet revolution in how everyday events are recorded. What once required bulky equipment can now fit into a pocket, and that shift has changed how citizens document public life, from local meetings to street-level encounters with law enforcement. A simple search for top compact cameras illustrates how accessible recording tools have become for people outside traditional media.

That accessibility has practical consequences. Video and high-quality images provide a form of evidence that can be immediate and persuasive, but they also raise questions about verification, privacy, and the rules that govern public spaces. For readers interested in civic oversight and policy, the proliferation of portable recording devices demands careful scrutiny rather than simple celebration.

The New Evidence Landscape

Portable cameras have altered the balance of evidence in public disputes. A clip recorded on a sidewalk can be circulated widely within minutes, shaping public understanding before a formal investigation begins. For journalists and investigators, citizen recordings supplement reporting, offering leads and context that might otherwise remain hidden.

At the same time, raw footage is rarely self-explanatory. Frame rate, angle, lighting, and editing choices influence interpretation. Clips excerpted from longer recordings can create misleading impressions. That reality places a premium on context: timestamps, unedited originals, and corroborating testimony matter just as much as the image itself. Courts and oversight bodies are still adapting to these new forms of material, and policy frameworks for handling them remain uneven.

Verification, Authentication, and Media Literacy

As more footage enters the public sphere, the need for verification grows. Journalists, fact checkers, and archive custodians use metadata, reverse image searches, and on-the-ground corroboration to assess whether footage is genuine and whether it depicts what commentators claim. This work is resource intensive and often invisible to the public.

Media literacy plays a parallel role. Viewers need tools to evaluate visual claims, including an understanding of how selective editing or deceptive framing can alter meaning. Institutions that handle public complaints and complaints against officials will increasingly require simple protocols for accepting, authenticating, and preserving digital recordings. Those protocols should balance the need for timeliness with careful methods for establishing provenance.

Legal Frameworks and Policy Gaps

The legal treatment of citizen recordings is a patchwork. Protections for bystanders and journalists vary across jurisdictions, and rules about audio recording in private or semi-private spaces differ from rules that apply in public. This variability leaves both recorders and those recorded with uncertain expectations.

Policy responses also lag behind technological change. Public agencies are grappling with questions about how to integrate citizen footage into investigations, how to secure chain of custody, and how to redact sensitive content while preserving probative material. Freedom of information laws intersect with privacy concerns, creating tension between transparency and personal rights. For policymakers, the challenge is to craft rules that are clear, fair, and technologically informed.

Privacy, Power, and Uneven Impact

Portable recording devices empower observers, but power dynamics shape who benefits. Marginalized communities may use recordings to call attention to abuses that would otherwise go unrecorded. At the same time, surveillance actors can exploit small cameras to monitor public life in intrusive ways, and platforms that host footage exercise discretion over what is visible and what is suppressed.

There are also unintended consequences for everyday privacy. Casual recording in public spaces can chill spontaneous interaction when individuals fear constant documentation. Employers, property owners, and private actors may adopt practices that normalize surveillance, shifting social expectations about anonymity. Policy debates should weigh these social costs, not only the value of documenting wrongdoing.

Practical Considerations for Civic Actors

For journalists, watchdogs, and organizers who work with citizen recordings, several pragmatic points deserve attention. First, prioritize preservation. Digital files degrade or are lost when platforms remove content, so insist on secure backups and, where appropriate, timestamped copies. Second, document context. A short written note about who recorded a clip, where it was taken, and under what circumstances enhances its credibility. Third, think about consent and harm. Public interest may justify releasing certain footage, but consent and safety concerns deserve careful consideration, particularly when content could endanger vulnerable people.

Institutions that receive recordings should develop simple intake procedures. Those procedures can require a minimal statement of origin, offer basic guidance on legal protections, and flag items that may need immediate forensic review. Clear, transparent rules foster public trust and reduce arbitrary decisions about what footage matters.

Conclusion

Pocket-sized cameras have expanded the capacity of citizens to document public life, altering the landscape of evidence and accountability. That expansion creates opportunities for greater transparency while exposing gaps in verification, law, and social norms. For those concerned with governance and public policy, the task is not to celebrate technology uncritically but to shape the frameworks that govern its use. Clear rules for authentication, balanced privacy protections, and accessible intake procedures for recordings can help ensure that these modern witnesses strengthen, rather than complicate, democratic oversight.

Photo: rawpixel.com via Freepik.


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Incentives matter, Mexican cartel edition

But the cartel’s interests may prove just as important to security as government efforts, according to a dozen local and state officials and security experts.

The CJNG has much to gain from the regional economic boost of a successful tournament in Guadalajara — akin to its administrative headquarters — and much to lose from drawing authorities’ attention.

“The city is safe because those guys put all their money here, and they stand to make even more,” said one state official who was not authorised to speak on the record. “They don’t want a war here.”

Huge profits earned elsewhere from drug trafficking and other activities are laundered in Guadalajara, experts said, helping to power a real estate boom. A rash of shiny new skyscrapers has popped up, some of which sit empty. The leafy city also boasts luxurious open-air shopping malls and lively nightlife.

Here is more from Ciara Nugent at the FT.

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EV Arts Patronage Tranche

EV Arts Patronage Tranche

This is a new tranche of ad hoc awards, given out more like prizes, without applications, to writers, creatives, and intellectuals who are not supported by the current system of awards and grants, or who have been failed by such systems.

With advice from Henry Oliver.  And a thanks to Patrick Collison for enabling this.

I am pleased to announce that our first winner is Helen DeWitt.

Please do contact me if you are interested in supporting this new effort.  Let us debureaucratize the arts and restore justice to worthy creators!

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The tech jobs bust is real. Don’t blame AI (yet)

Why technology firms are shedding workers

Monday assorted links

1. AI adoption gaps for Europe.

2. Books are plunging as a share of political science citations.

3. Gender integration in the military did not hurt male performance.

4. MIE: auctioning off part of the Eiffel Tower (NYT).

5. Agentic AI for economists, slides.  And talk.

6. Seb Krier Substack.

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Space Station captures, berths Cygnus XL ’S.S. Steven R. Nagel’ cargo spacecraft

A Northrop Grumman Cygnus XL spacecraft is captured by the Canadarm2 on the International Space Station on Monday, April 13, 2026. Image: NASA

The next cargo run to the International Space Station arrived at the orbiting outpost midday on Monday.

Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus XL spacecraft was captured by the Canadarm2 on the ISS 12:19 pm CT (1:19 pm ET / 1719 UTC) as the ISS was flying just off the southwest tip of the African continent. This was about 30 minutes later than originally anticipated to allow time for teams on the ground and crew onboard the station to ensure there was good data agreement.

NASA astronaut Jack Hathaway was at the controls of the robotic arm while fellow NASA astronaut Chris Williams monitored the spacecraft’s arrival.

The mission is the second flight of a Cygnus XL vehicle manufactured by Northrop Grumman. It’s able to carry about 33 percent more mass to orbit compared to the previously flown version of the vehicle.

This Cygnus XL in particular, named S.S. Steven R. Nagel after the NASA astronaut who passed away in 2014, carried 11,020 pounds (5,000 kg of science and supplies onboard. Among the cargo are expanded capabilities for the ISS, like a new module for the Cold Atom Lab, called Science Module-3X (SM-3X).

“This increases the size of the atom clouds that are going to be generated. And that, of course is the coldest place in the universe,” said Dr. Liz Warren, NASA’s ISS Deputy Chief Scientist. “In microgravity, when you create those cold atom gases it allows us and scientists to study what is happening at the quantum level. And so, this kind of research helps keep our nation at the forefront of quantum technology research.”

Dina Contella, NASA’s ISS Deputy Program Manager, noted that among the hardware that just arrived at the ISS is the Supplemental Heat Rejection Evaporative Cooler (SHREC).

“SHREC’s purpose is to provide cooling to some of the avionics and critical systems onboard ISS should we have both of the external cooling loops go down. So, for example, if both pump modules fail on the outside of station,” Contella said. “And so, this device essentially allows for us to use the vacuum system to evaporate water through some membranes and allow for some cooling.

The Cygnus vehicle also includes many shelf-stable food items, like almond butters, coffee, tea, nutrition bars, and dark chocolate. It also contains fresh food, like hummus, apples, blueberries, oranges, and baby carrots.

April 13, 2026: International Space Station Configuration. Five spaceships are parked at the space station including the SpaceX Crew-12 Dragon, Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus XL, the Soyuz MS-28 crew ship, and the Progress 93 and 94 resupply ships. Graphic: NASA

Second Cygnus XL takes flight

The S.S. Steven R. Nagel launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on April 11 at 7:41 a.m. EDT (1141 UTC). The Saturday morning flight came following launch delays due to poor weather at the pad in Florida.

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to begin the NG-24 mission on Saturday, April 11, 2026. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

The mission, also referred to as NG-24, was the fourth launch of a Cygnus spacecraft on a Falcon 9 rocket after the retirement of the Antares 230+ in August 2023. Nearly eight minutes after liftoff, the Falcon 9 first stage booster, tail number B1094, flying for a seventh time, landed at SpaceX’s Landing Zone 40, adjacent to the launch pad.

This was just the second time that SpaceX used its new landing site, following the launch of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-12 mission in mid-February. 

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 first stage booster, 1094, fires its center Merlin engine as its approaches touchdown at Landing Zone 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station during the NG-24 mission on April 11, 2026. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Northrop Grumman will eventually transition to using its Antares 330 rocket for a few flights, which will feature the same upper stage — a Northrop Grumman 30 XL solid rocket motor — but includes a new first stage from Firefly Aerospace, which is powered by seven of its Miranda engines.

Following three planned launches of the Antares 330, Northrop Grumman and Firefly Aerospace will transition to a new, medium-lift launch vehicle called Eclipse. The 53-meter-tall (194 ft) rocket will use the same first stage being developed for the Antares 330, but then use a new second stage powered by a Firefly Vira engine.

In a social media statement on Monday, Firefly confirmed that Eclipse will have a reusable first stage, but not right from the get go.

“We’re taking an iterative approach and will be testing capabilities on the initial flights,” the company said.

In May 2025, after Northrop Grumman invested $50 million in the development of Eclipse, the hope was to see it launch for the first time in 2026. However, at this point, Firefly Aerospace most recently said it’s anticipating the first launch of Eclipse to take place no earlier than 2027. 

The first Antares 330 launch may launch at some point this year, but a launch date hasn’t been announced.

Complex tragedy in a headline: Israeli Court Lets Parents of Gaza Hostage Killed by IDF Fire to Use Son's Sperm for IVF

 Rarely does a headline capture so much of a complicated tragedy.  Read it at least twice.

From Haaretz: 

Israeli Court Lets Parents of Gaza Hostage Killed by IDF Fire to Use Son's Sperm for IVF 

"An Israeli family court has allowed the parents of Yotam Haim, who was mistakenly killed by Israeli troops after escaping Hamas captivity, to use his sperm posthumously for in vitro fertilization, citing his presumed wish to have children even after his death. "

#######

This is a story that also involves the modern technology that can be brought to bear on human reproduction, including not only sperm donation and IVF, but also perhaps egg donation and surrogacy. 

Prediction Market Details

The Guardian has an interesting article on prediction markets. There are the usual worries about betting on death, as if insurance markets don’t already exist and about insider trading, which public markets have long dealt with. But there is also interesting material on who decides what happened when resolving bets about events made in language (as opposed to more objectively verified numbers).

On Monday, anonymous user “Harshad” asked in a Discord channel if there was “any chance” that he could still win his bet about whether US forces would enter Iran by the end of April. His money was on “no”.

But Polymarket appeared to be resolving the market to “yes”, after the US conducted an operation to rescue a crew member shot down on a mission over Isfahan over the weekend.

…At the moment, when there is a dispute, markets on Polymarket are settled by an anonymous group of people who hold a crypto token called UMA.

It’s an unusual way to decide what has happened. Some longtime users suggest it opens the platform to corruption. Different individuals hold different amounts of UMA, and therefore have different voting power.

It isn’t known who the largest UMA holders are, or what might affect how they vote. It is entirely possible that the people who finally settle a bet on UMA have large amounts of money staked on it.

There was also this bit about Prediction Hunt (I am an advisor) which is focused on cross-market arbitrage opportunities:

“I love to gamble,” said Joseph Francia.

Now in his early 30s, Francia counted cards in casinos while studying economics at Berkeley, and spent weekends in Reno, Nevada, playing blackjack. He’s not a thrill-seeking “Yolo” (you only live once) gambler, he said: he likes to bet when he has an edge on the house.

At university, he and a friend decided to collect data from a number of offshore sportsbooks, and start placing arbitrage bets: playing on the discrepancies in odds given by different betting sites.

“If the odds on the Lakers are really good on one site, and the odds on the Pacers are really good on another site, you could bet on basically both teams on different sportsbooks and make guaranteed profit,” he said.

That project was a student lark in 2017. But in 2025, he remembered it when he was suddenly laid off from his full-time job, just as prediction markets were taking off.

“I’m a spiritual, religious person,” he said. “The more secular people would say, this opportunity is coincidence. But in my head, I was like, this is a sign of something to some extent. Let me lean into this.”

So Francia started Prediction Hunt, a Discord channel and online community where thousands of people gather to trade tips and ideas for how to make money – and bet smart – on Polymarket. The Guardian spent roughly three weeks in this Discord channel.

There are alerts to track “fade” bets, where you try to follow the smart money: profitable wallets were betting “yes” on the Iranian regime falling by 30 April, for example, while unprofitable wallets were betting “no”.

There are alerts to track potential insiders, so you can copy their bets: one of these appears to have an inside line on interest rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve.

Getting these details right will be important but overall I am pleased that the news now regularly reports prediction market data when reporting stories–this is disciplining news from noise, something I predicted long ago in Entrepreneurial Economics.

The post Prediction Market Details appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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What Lessons Does Hungary Have for the US?

We have a new Cafe piece from an expert on the country’s authoritarian movement.

Nope, that is not an alien spaceship landing on the Moon! This is an image of Nope, that is not an alien spaceship landing on the Moon! This is an image of


w/e 2026-04-12

I spent the weekend in Essex with my sister continuing to sort out the old family home. We made good progress, sifting through everything in the kitchen and the garage – where we found yet more books stashed away! – and more

Writing this on Monday morning, having had a good night’s sleep during which the dreams weren’t stressful (unusual for recent weeks) I can’t face writing more about the emotions of all that now. Onward. But here’s my first bike:

A photo of a child's tricycle, painted in white, blue and red. It's very dusty and dirty. There's a small sticker of a dancing cat on the front. One rear tire is missing.

§ Before I went, at home, we moved lots of things back into the refurbished garage and put up some hooks to hang the longer tools. Getting there.

I spent another afternoon fiddling with Neovim. It was the week in which one of the most commonly-used plugins, nvim-treesitter had its repository put into archive mode because the maintainer had, it seems, had enough of people being too entitled. Tricky for everyone but I think many of us can empathise.


§ We watched the first season of Paradise, about which I knew nothing other than seeing people say it was watchable nonsense. They were right! So many plot and logic holes, many characters who change based on what the plot demands, and all the hallmarks of a Lost-style show that will pile on the mysteries until it gets canceled. But still watchable.



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I am Sámi

Photo of a person in traditional attire playing an acoustic guitar outside, sitting against a red wooden wall near blue doors.

This short documentary asks what it means to be Sámi today, following decades-long state-mandated assimilation attempts

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

The sterilisation-seekers

Illustration of a hand using shears to prune a tree with vibrant green branches against a yellow background.

In the story of eugenics, disabled people are often depicted as passive victims. But for some it seemed an opportunity

- by Coreen McGuire & Alex Aylward

Read on Aeon

What if a few AI companies end up with all the money and power?

Last year, a lot of people (including me) were wondering if the AI industry was in a bubble. These days it’s looking a lot less likely. The technology has found its killer app — agentic coding, which has upended the software industry as we know it. For power users, AI is no longer just a chatbot — you can tell it to go make you an app, or run some data analysis, and it’ll just do it for you and come back with the results.

This is making a LOT of money. As I predicted, Anthropic has been quicker to capitalize on the agentic coding boom than OpenAI. Anthropic focused on selling to businesses, while OpenAI focused on building its brand and selling to consumers; the revenue from agentic coding is almost all in the former category. So as Ruben Dominguez reports, Anthropic has probably overtaken OpenAI in revenue, or will do so soon:

In case you don’t realize how much money this is, or how fast this growth rate is, here’s some perspective:

Some of that will be eaten up by computing costs, of course. But as the WSJ recently reported, Anthropic’s computing costs are much lower than OpenAI’s. As a result, it’s expected to start turning a profit faster than OpenAI — and even OpenAI’s projections depend heavily on a comeback push that eats into Anthropic’s enterprise market share.

The rise of coding agents isn’t just changing the corporate horse race; it’s changing the whole picture of how we think about competition and profit in the world’s most important new industry. In a post last December, I wondered if AI would end up being a vitally important but low-margin business, similar to solar power or airlines:

Jason Furman wrote something similar, declaring that “instead of consolidating, as so many other industries have done, the leading edge of A.I. has become fiercely competitive.”

That’s still possible, of course. Fast followers, including Google and various Chinese model-makers, are still racing to catch up; if progress slows down, they may catch the market leaders and drive down margins. It’s still not clear how much of a “moat” AI has, even with agents. But right now, the business of making and renting out AI models seems dominated by two giants. Meta and xAI, who recently were considered at or near the frontier, seem unable to keep up.

And there’s now a pretty clear path for those two giants to become even more dominant: cybersecurity. Anthropic recently delayed the wide release of its new frontier model, Mythos, because it was too good at hacking. The model supposedly found critical vulnerabilities in key software systems that had been missed for decades by top human cybersecurity researchers. The idea is that Anthropic is going to spend a while using Mythos to go over critical systems and make sure they don’t have security flaws before releasing the model to the public. OpenAI is expected to do something similar with its next model.

Assuming Mythos is really that good at hacking (and there are skeptics), it gives us another reason to think that a few top model-makers like Anthropic and OpenAI will make a lot of profit. Cybersecurity is inherently adversarial; if attackers use a very powerful AI coding model to hack, defenders probably have to use a model that’s equally good or better to defend — and vice versa. This can lead to an arms race where neither side can afford not to shell out big bucks for the latest and greatest model they can get their hands on.

Because the prize for successfully defeating modern cybersecurity is so large — imagine hacking into Citibank and Bank of America and E*TRADE and Robinhood and just taking everyone’s money — the amounts that people have to spend on AI tools is potentially enormous. And even if Anthropic and OpenAI continue to be responsible citizens and make their top models available to defenders for long enough to find all the newly findable bugs — and even if attackers give up entirely because they can’t get their hands on the best models — it means defenders still have to shell out big bucks to the top model-makers.

It’s a huge source of revenue and a powerful moat for profit margins. And as AI expands into other adversarial fields — quant trading, litigation, fraud prevention, competitive advertising, and so on — there are probably going to be more of these revenue sources and more of these profit moats.

Which means we have one more thing to worry about when it comes to AI.

Typically, there are three big concerns that we talk about:

  1. The worry that terrorists will use AI to create doomsday viruses

  2. Worries about job displacement, human obsolescence, and economic dislocation

  3. The worry that superintelligent AI is a new dominant species that will disempower and possibly destroy humanity

But if the industry really does become dominated by a few giant companies, we have a fourth big thing to worry about — extreme inequality. If AI’s economic benefits are highly concentrated, we could end up with a comparatively small number of people controlling most of the purchasing power in our economy. In the extreme scenario, this could lead to a small number of people holding all the power in the world.

The “Piketty on steroids” scenario

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My South Africa dialogue with Ann Bernstein

An edited transcript is here.

The post My South Africa dialogue with Ann Bernstein appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Battle of the Bulge Episode 9: Sealing the Bulge

The Battle of the Bulge Episode 9 is “Sealing the Bulge.” It moves the story of that crucial battle forward, but oh, look at the film the videographer found of the two little boys after it became clear the Third Reich was going down. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything so perfectly encapsulate a moment. I asked how she found the video, and she said: “Luck.” Maybe. It seems inspired.

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Eric Swalwell has dropped out

Over.

So, over the past several weeks, scores of Californians have been begging for some of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates to drop out of the race and clear up the field.

Well, with a nod to Oscar Wilde, we have been damned to get what we wish for …

Eric Swalwell, the presumed frontrunner, is done. Over. Gone. Kaput. Eliot Spitzered. A few minutes ago he officially announced the “suspension” of his run, which is not-so-secret code for, “This shit has swallowed me up, and I’m over.”

He’s over.

My thoughts? I have a few …

First, it continues to dazzle me how, since the Feb. 4, 1789 election of George Washington, this nation has never had a woman president. Not one. Ever. And I note this because, well, men fucking suck. We just do. We rape and harass and are far too often guided by our dicks, not our brains. It’s actually breathtaking in its predictability. Seriously, how often do you hear of women doing this garbage to men? It’s exhausting.

Second, along those lines—I’m glad Swalwell is toast. Truly, I am. But I also have to ask, why is Donald Trump still a thing? Epstein’s buddy. Paid off the porn star. Accused by roughly two dozen women of sexual assault. Forking over $83 million to E. Jean Carroll. Brags about grabbing women by the pussies. Bragged about going back stage to see young women changing during beauty pageants. Cheats on wife 1 with wife 2, wife 2 with wife 3. Why is everyone held accountable—except this piece of shit?

Third, if I had to name the political winner from today, it’d be Matt Mahan, the San Jose mayor and a dude who puts the over in overzealous. Mahan’s campaign had been on the quick sink, and he clearly knew it. So, from jump, he started loudly hooting and hollaring about Swalwell—desperate to have him drop; desperate to take the mantle of young-bro-you’ve-sorta-kinda-heard-of.

It’s weird, politics. Upsetting, too. Katie Porter may well be a smidge hard to love, but she’s (for my money) the best candidate in the race. Yet people are so hard on women; so eager to find dents in the armor. Hence, I would not be shocked if, with Swalwell’s demise, you see Mahan surge past Katie and into a two-guy sprint with Tom $teyer … I mean, Steyer.

Fourth, I’ve recently been asked to consider entering my local city council race—and I’m a hard no. I’ve just had far too many uncomfortable Tweets (nothing sexual or racist, but a lot of hard-core uber-liberal positions) and clumsy engagements with sports and Tupac figures who hate me and would go out of their ways to savage my rep. I know it’d all be dug up, twisted, used against me—and I don’t want that to happen to my family.

Now imagine being Eric Swalwell. You know what you’ve (allegedly) done. You know what’s out there. You know the knives held above your head. And yet, for some ungodly reason, you still decide to run. Is it ego? Sure. Money? Perhaps. Power? No doubt. But you enter, you go for it, you consider yourself untouchable and the next crown prince of California.

And now, it’s over.

Now, you couldn’t run for city dog catcher.

Now, you slink off into the sunset, a B-side on the John Edwards 45.

Lord, politics suck.

Taxi, please!

You might be wondering why an ALMA antenna is being driven around by this yellow truck in today's Picture of the Week. Like a huge taxi, this vehicle was specifically designed to transport the antennas around the Chajnantor plateau in the Chilean Andes.  

The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), an international collaboration in which ESO is a partner, consists of 66 antennas that work together like a single gigantic telescope. The antennas can be rearranged into different layouts, allowing ALMA to discern different levels of detail. The distance between the antennas ranges from a few tens of metres, ideal to observe diffuse structures, to a maximum of 16 kilometres, perfect to study really small details. 

This is when the yellow trucks come into play. There are two identical ALMA transporters, named Otto and Lore, which were provided by ESO and manufactured by the company Scheuerle Fahrzeugfabrik GmbH. These vans must be powerful enough to carry an antenna weighting over 100 tons, but also accurate enough to position them with a precision of a few millimetres. 

Megaberg Ends Its Long Odyssey at Sea

Two stacked images: the top shows a massive, newly formed iceberg near Antarctica; bottom shows the same iceberg 40 years later in the South Atlantic, fragmented into many small pieces.

Iceberg A-23A ranks among the giants known to have broken, or “calved,” from Antarctica. Though several other icebergs in the satellite era have been larger, A-23A was remarkable for its longevity. After spending its early days in the Weddell Sea, its journey came to an end in the South Atlantic Ocean, months shy of its 40th birthday.

These images show the iceberg at the start and end of its lifespan. The MSS (Multispectral Scanner System) on Landsat 5 captured the top image on November 10, 1986, shortly after Iceberg A-23 broke from the Filchner Ice Shelf. (The main section was later renamed A-23A after a smaller piece split off.) It is pictured here with several other major icebergs from the same calving event. A-23A outlived all of them. 

The second image, captured by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-21 satellite on April 3, 2026, shows what remained of the iceberg at the end of its journey. By this point, the ice had drifted into warmer waters north of South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands—more than 2,300 kilometers (2,000 miles) north of where the iceberg first calved.

Drifting Toward Disintegration

Iceberg A-23A’s final months brought abundant drift, melt, and breakage. It exited the U.S. National Ice Center’s area of analysis during the week of February 6, 2026, and was transferred to the jurisdiction of the Argentinian Meteorological Service as it drifted into maritime traffic lanes, according to the center’s ice analysts.

Jan Lieser of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and Christopher Shuman of the University of Maryland (retired) have long been tracking the iceberg with remote sensing. They estimated that by March 27, 2026, A-23A had shrunk to just over 170 square kilometers (66 square miles)—a small fraction of the more than 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 square miles) it spanned in 2020 as it lay grounded off the Antarctic coast. Large pools of deep-blue meltwater collected on its surface and likely contributed to its ultimate collapse, visible on March 31.

A map of the Southern Ocean and South Atlantic with Antarctica at the bottom, showing Iceberg A-23A’s path as a generally northward route with several loops and deviations.

Clouds obscured some satellite observations of the berg’s final days. “I noticed in recent weeks how Mother Nature seemed to keep a veil (of clouds) over the dying iceberg as if trying to give it some privacy at this stage,” Lieser said. There were still enough observations, however, to capture glimpses of its death throes, as well as the many stages of its long, winding journey.

Tracking A-23A Across the Satellite Era

Iceberg A-23A “came of age” during a period of advances in Earth observation. The Landsat program, ongoing since the early 1970s, captured detailed images throughout the iceberg’s life, while the Terra and Aqua satellites—imaging Earth since the early 2000s—offered broader, daily snapshots as sunlight and clouds allowed.

By the time A-23A broke free from the seafloor in 2022 and began drifting north, a vastly expanded fleet of missions was available to observe its journey—capturing everything from detailed images of its shifting shape to its effects on the surrounding environment. Astronauts aboard the International Space Station added their own close-up perspective, while the newer PACE satellite identified the iceberg’s ripple effects on marine ecosystems. The video below brings together some of NASA’s most striking views of the drifting giant’s journey.

“The technology that allows us to tell ‘iceberg stories’ is a tribute to the engineers and funding that put crucial sensors into orbit to collect those data and make them accessible,” Shuman said. “Through time, these efforts have allowed us to understand the general patterns of iceberg movement around Antarctica, especially in the last handful of decades.”

Lingering Mysteries of Iceberg Motion

With all the images and data that A-23A and other bergs have left behind, scientists now have even more questions about the factors driving iceberg motion, from ocean currents to the shape of the seafloor. Lieser is particularly interested in the small- to medium-sized bergs that break from the giants, as they pose significant hazards to shipping. These smaller bergs, such as the trail near A-23A on March 1, are also notoriously difficult to track, as well as to model in terms of their expected drift.

The megabergs generated by Antarctica’s vast ice shelves also still carry plenty of mystery. In the case of A-23A, Lieser and Shuman wonder what the bathymetry looks like where it became stuck shortly after calving in 1986 and how the iceberg later became ensnared by a rotating vortex of water, or Taylor column, north of the South Orkney Islands.

“We certainly do know a fair bit about the general drift patterns of icebergs and the general environment,” Lieser said. “But when it comes to individual pieces—large and small—and their tracks, there’s still a fair bit to learn.”

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey, VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCEGIBS/Worldview, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Map made using data from the U.S. National Ice Center (USNIC) and the Antarctic Iceberg Tracking Database (BYU). Earth Observatory video by Kathryn Hansen, featuring imagery from sources listed under References & Resources. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

References & Resources

You may also be interested in:

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Meltwater Turns Iceberg A-23A Blue
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The post Megaberg Ends Its Long Odyssey at Sea appeared first on NASA Science.

Antarctic Iceberg A-23A’s journey ends in fragmentation in the South Atlantic Ocean, after a 40-year lifespan documented by satellites.

Sinlaku Continues to Impact the Marianas; Severe Weather from the Central US to the Northeast; Late-Season Snow in the Northwest