A Fortress Moon for cislunar security

Cislunar space is evolving from one of primarily scientific interest to one with more strategic importance. Alan Dugger examines one approach to better monitor the activities taking place in this region.

Redefining success in space diplomacy: emerging space nations in the Artemis Era and the case of Turkey

The role of space in diplomacy is changing as countries shift from seeking technical dominance to influence over governance. Elif Yuksel discusses that shift and how it affects on emerging country in space.

The TWINSTAR mission concept: A pragmatic path to finding Earth 2.0

One of the driving goals of astrophysics is to be able to observe an Earthlike planet orbiting another star. Sherine Ahmed El Baradei discusses one mission concept under study that could so for a relatively modest price.

The great launch constraint

Blue Origin's New Glenn suffered a failure on its third launch last week when an upper stage malfunction placed its payload in the wrong orbit. Jeff Foust reports this is a problem not just for Blue Origin but the broader launch industry, as multiple failures reduce launch capacity as demand for launches surges.

Science Power Platform: the ISS's cancelled power module

During much of the development of the International Space Station, one Russian contribution was a module that would have provided power and lab space. Maks Skiendzielewski charts the long history of the Science Power Platform, which never made it to orbit yet influenced the station's design.

Six Years of Curiosity’s Wheels on the Move

1 Min Read

Six Years of Curiosity’s Wheels on the Move

NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover used its right navigation camera to capture the images in this timelapse, which spans six years of driving.
PIA26721
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Description

NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover used its right navigation camera — one of two on the rover’s mast, or head — to capture the images in this timelapse, which spans six years of driving. The images were snapped between Jan. 2, 2020, and March 8, 2026 (the 2,633rd and 4,830th Martian day, or sol, of the mission, respectively). The images were taken when the mast was looking behind the rover to help the science team choose rocks to study.

Curiosity’s team is using this timelapse to watch for sand grains shifting on the rover’s deck. Distinguishing between sand jostled by each drive and wind gusts can provide new information about seasonal changes in the atmosphere.

Curiosity was built by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which is managed by Caltech in Pasadena, California. JPL leads the mission on behalf of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington as part of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program portfolio.

To learn more about Curiosity, visit:

science.nasa.gov/mission/msl-curiosity

The post Six Years of Curiosity’s Wheels on the Move appeared first on NASA Science.

April 27, 2026

There is a story behind this picture from Virginia's Skyline Drive that I will write as soon as there’s a little breathing room in the news. But for now, let’s just enjoy a break.

We can pick it all back up tomorrow.

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The Ballroom Distraction

Yours Truly on The Vergecast

David Pierce:

On this episode of The Vergecast, David and Nilay are joined by Daring Fireball’s John Gruber to talk about their reactions to the news, the (mostly) smooth transition Apple seems to have pulled off, and what we should really make of Tim Cook’s legacy as a product person. Really, the question is: Do we blame Cook for the Touch Bar, or do we blame him for not trying hard enough to make the Touch Bar great?

I know that sounds like a joke but I really do think the biggest problem with the Touch Bar wasn’t that the first crack at it wasn’t good enough, but that they never took a second crack at it. Going back to dumb fiddly F-keys with functional icons printed on them was uncharacteristically lazy for Apple.

 ★ 

Sponsor The Talk Show

Weekly “sponsor the whole week at DF” spots are sold out until August 24. That’s a great sign that sponsorships here work. But it’s not so great if you have a product or service that you’d like to promote now, or soon, to the DF audience — savvy listeners and readers obsessed with high quality and good design.

The good news on that front is that the sponsorship schedule for The Talk Show has openings, including for the next few episodes, starting this week and into next month. The general rule of thumb is that sponsorship spots on The Talk Show cost one-third the rate for the weekly spots on DF. I’m happy to work out deals a little lower than that for first-time sponsors. If you’ve got a product or service you’d like to hear pitched on America’s favorite three-star podcast, get in touch.

 ★ 

Here’s ‘What’s Next’ According to ‘No Kings’ Organizers

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This story is from our friends at Work-Bites

Organizers of the latest round of “No Kings” demonstrations held nationwide, in late March, concluded their post-game wrap-up, on March 31, to be promising, “tonight is the night when we move from talking about what’s next—to doing what’s next.”

“What’s next?” is a question “No Kings” organizers could hardly avoid this week after an estimated 8 million people across the country turned out on Saturday March 28, to once again oppose the Trump administration’s deepening march into post-Constitutional authoritarianism.

So, what does “doing what’s next” look like according to “No Kings” organizers?

In the most concrete terms, it looks like working class people nationwide taking the “No School. No Work. No Shopping.” pledge on May 1—International Workers’ Day, as well as continuing to march, rally, and organize.

“The real question here isn’t, does a protest change everything?” program moderator Ash-Lee Woodard Henderson argued during Tuesday night’s virtual meet-up. “It’s can you build a sustained anti-authoritarian campaign without mass demonstration? And I think we can say unequivocally the answer is no—we can’t skip it. It’s a single part of building movement infrastructure. It’s not just spectacle or performance for its own sake.”

No Kings protestor dressed as Trump in prison suit.
A protester in a Trump mask and prison jumpsuit takes part in New York City’s “No Kings” demonstration on June 14, 2025. Photo: Work-Bites

Previous “No Kings” demonstrations across the country, Henderson further argued, have helped transform “private discontent into public identity.”

“People walk away knowing they are part of something, something bigger than themselves,” she said. “They’re not just scared or angry, or grieving alone.”

And that, according, to Henderson is “raw material” for “No Kings” organizers and their sustained organizing.

Clearly, “No Kings” organizers want to use that “raw material” to elect Democrats in the mid-term elections later this fall.

“This may have started with an election, it will end with an election,” Edwin Torres Desantiago, manager of the Immigrant Defense Network in Minnesota, said on Tuesday.

AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said that “from now until November, the AFL-CIO and our state and local movements, are going to be in the streets, at the worksites, making sure everyone knows the issues at stake in the next election,” she said.

“We’re fed up with an economy that treats workers like an expense to be minimized instead of the engine that makes everything run,” Shuler continued. “We have to meet each other in that shared experience. If we can agree that shit costs too much and we’re all getting squeezed then we can start working together to fix it.”

Many, however, argue that “working together to fix it” actually requires a lot more than waiting around for the mid-term elections and replacing cooperate-controlled Republicans with corporate-controlled Democrats.

“Anytime, anywhere that authoritarianism has shown up, the determining factor of it succeeding has been one thing—the response of the labor movement,” Organized Power in Numbers Executive Director Neidi Dominguez said on Tuesday. “The response of working people, the response of people like you showing up against it.”

Indivisible Co-Founder Leah Greenberg, meanwhile, stressed the importance of building a “tapestry of defiance” against the Trumpian agenda.

“We’re in a pivotal year,” she said. “Trump is losing support fast. He is flailing. Flailing would-be dictators are dangerous. They don’t go quietly—they lash out. That is why he invaded Minnesota. That is why he launched an illegal, catastrophic war on Iran. That is why we are fully expecting him to sabotage the upcoming mid-term elections. We stop that by building our power.”

Dominguez further urged working class people taking the “No School. No Work. No Shopping.” pledge to “do as much as you are able” on May 1, and “build the muscle we need to stop this regime and build a world that works for all of us.”

“You may not be able to do all three of those things,” she said. “That’s okay. But know that you can do one of them. And we need more of us to be doing one, or if you can, all them.”


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

The post Here’s ‘What’s Next’ According to ‘No Kings’ Organizers appeared first on DCReport.org.

HUD Says Realtors Can Now Speak the Truth

HUD: The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) sent a “Dear Colleague” letter to real estate professionals clarifying they are not violating the Fair Housing Act when they share information with prospective homebuyers about neighborhood crime rates and school quality data.

“Buying a home is one on the most significant decisions a family will ever make,” said Secretary Scott Turner. “Americans should not be left in the dark about vital facts like neighborhood safety or school quality. HUD is making clear that real estate professionals can openly and lawfully provide this information in an equal and consistent manner to American families.”

The background is that The Fair Housing Act of 1968 prohibits discrimination in housing based on race, color, religion, sex, national origin (and via later amendments) familial status, and disability. Discrimination included “steering” buyers toward or away from neighborhoods based on protected characteristics. The Biden administration ramped this up with a directive and Executive Order that essentially said the Fair Housing Act must be interpreted not just to prohibit discrimination but to redress and undo past discrimination:

This is not only a mandate to refrain from discrimination but a mandate to take actions that undo historic patterns of segregation and other types of discrimination and that afford access to long-denied opportunities.

…the [HUD] Secretary shall take any necessary steps,…to implement the Fair Housing Act’s requirements that HUD administer its programs in a manner that affirmatively furthers fair housing and HUD’s overall duty to administer the Act (42 U.S.C. 3608(a)) including by preventing practices with an unjustified discriminatory effect.

The “discriminatory effect” language reinforced that so-called disparate impact, not just intentional discrimination counted as discriminatory—and it contributed to a legal and reputational environment in which platforms and agents had strong incentives to avoid anything that could be characterized as steering. As a result, by the end of the year, Realtor.com had removed its crime map from all search results, as did Trulia, Redfin announced it would not add crime data to its platform and since Zillow already didn’t include such data, by early 2022 all the major portals had dropped crime information. Similarly, the National Association of Realtors published material instructing agents not to directly answer client questions about neighborhood safety. One article in “The Safety Series” was titled “‘Is This a Safe Neighborhood?’ Don’t Answer That” and by “Safety Series” they meant safety for the realtor not the client.

So without explicitly making such information illegal, the government created a legal and reputational climate that chilled its provision. Portals removed crime maps and realtors became reluctant to answer ordinary buyer questions about neighborhood safety and school quality. That is a degradation of service, not a civil-rights victory. The pretext was that crime information might not be accurate but the real fear was that it would accurately suggest neighborhoods with high percentages of black residents had more crime. Withholding information about crime and schools, however, does not change the facts; it just shifts the informational advantage toward buyers who are wealthy, well-connected, or sophisticated enough to find the data themselves. Moreover, it should go without saying that black homebuyers also want information about neighborhood crime rates–don’t these buyers count? Suppressing truthful information is rarely a good way to improve outcomes. As with Ban the Box, blocking direct access to relevant information encourages worse proxy-based decision-making.

Trump’s HUD is correct: fair housing law should prohibit discrimination, not prevent realtors from telling the truth.

The post HUD Says Realtors Can Now Speak the Truth appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Where Has Social Media Gone?

tl;dr: Read “Social Media Is Now Parasocial Media”

The lovely folks at the Social Media + Society journal asked me to contribute to their anniversary issue by reflecting on the trajectory of social media. Ooof. Snark exuded from my pores as I tried to figure out what I might say. But then I thought about how my students don’t know about an era of social media without recommended content, algorithmically curated feeds, and an infinite scroll of cotton candy content. They never encountered a world of social media where people were focused on sharing with their friends rather than becoming influencers. They don’t realize how much the “social” in social media has changed.

As I tried to unpack in my mind what social media has become, I kept coming back to how the dominant practice has shifted to consumption rather than production. Media scholars have always argued that consuming TV is social even if you watch alone because of the power of using TV content in social settings, like the water cooler. I don’t want to negate this collective experience to TV, although the content we consume online is so fragmented that there is no unifying consumption pattern despite there being meaningful networked-based consumption practices. But still, there’s something tangibly different about the social-ness of consuming to discuss vs. consuming in a dialogic engagement.

In putting pen-to-paper, I kept coming back to how odd the term “social media” now feels to me. And of course I’m biased because I lived through the contestations over how to label the various websites that we’ve come to know as social media. So I had a very particular understanding of the term, one that no longer exists.

“Social Media Is Now Parasocial Media” is my attempt to reckon with the evolution of social media into a format that I feel is no longer meaningfully social. It’s open-access so check it out. And if you have feels, push back! I’d love to hear your thoughts!!!

Tracking the history of the now-deceased OpenAI Microsoft AGI clause

For many years, Microsoft and OpenAI's relationship has included a weird clause saying that, should AGI be achieved, Microsoft's commercial IP rights to OpenAI's technology would be null and void. That clause appeared to end today. I decided to try and track its expression over time on openai.com.

OpenAI, July 22nd 2019 in Microsoft invests in and partners with OpenAI to support us building beneficial AGI (emphasis mine):

OpenAI is producing a sequence of increasingly powerful AI technologies, which requires a lot of capital for computational power. The most obvious way to cover costs is to build a product, but that would mean changing our focus. Instead, we intend to license some of our pre-AGI technologies, with Microsoft becoming our preferred partner for commercializing them.

But what is AGI? The OpenAI Charter was first published in April 2018 and has remained unchanged at least since this March 11th 2019 archive.org capture:

OpenAI’s mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—by which we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work—benefits all of humanity.

Here's the problem: if you're going to sign an agreement with Microsoft that is dependent on knowing when "AGI" has been achieved, you need something a little more concrete.

In December 2024 The Information reported the details (summarized here outside of their paywall by TechCrunch):

Last year’s agreement between Microsoft and OpenAI, which hasn’t been disclosed, said AGI would be achieved only when OpenAI has developed systems that have the ability to generate the maximum total profits to which its earliest investors, including Microsoft, are entitled, according to documents OpenAI distributed to investors. Those profits total about $100 billion, the documents showed.

So AGI is now whenever OpenAI's systems are capable of generating $100 billion in profit?

In October 2025 the process changed to being judged by an "independent expert panel". In The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership:

The agreement preserves key elements that have fueled this successful partnership—meaning OpenAI remains Microsoft’s frontier model partner and Microsoft continues to have exclusive IP rights and Azure API exclusivity until Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). [...]

Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. [...]

Microsoft’s IP rights to research, defined as the confidential methods used in the development of models and systems, will remain until either the expert panel verifies AGI or through 2030, whichever is first.

OpenAI on February 27th, 2026 in Joint Statement from OpenAI and Microsoft:

AGI definition and processes are unchanged. The contractual definition of AGI and the process for determining if it has been achieved remains the same.

OpenAI today, April 27th 2026 in The next phase of the Microsoft OpenAI partnership (emphasis mine):

  • Microsoft will continue to have a license to OpenAI IP for models and products through 2032. Microsoft’s license will now be non-exclusive.
  • Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI.
  • Revenue share payments from OpenAI to Microsoft continue through 2030, independent of OpenAI’s technology progress, at the same percentage but subject to a total cap.

As far as I can tell "independent of OpenAI’s technology progress" is a declaration that the AGI clause is now dead. Here's The Verge coming to the same conclusion: The AGI clause is dead.

My all-time favorite commentary on OpenAI's approach to AGI remains this 2023 hypothetical by Matt Levine:

And the investors wailed and gnashed their teeth but it’s true, that is what they agreed to, and they had no legal recourse. And OpenAI’s new CEO, and its nonprofit board, cut them a check for their capped return and said “bye” and went back to running OpenAI for the benefit of humanity. It turned out that a benign, carefully governed artificial superintelligence is really good for humanity, and OpenAI quickly solved all of humanity’s problems and ushered in an age of peace and abundance in which nobody wanted for anything or needed any Microsoft products. And capitalism came to an end.

Tags: computer-history, microsoft, ai, openai

Speech translation in Google Meet is now rolling out to mobile devices

Speech translation in Google Meet is now rolling out to mobile devices

I just encountered this feature via a "try this out now" prompt in a Google Meet meeting. It kind-of worked!

This is Google's implementation of the ultimate sci-fi translation app, where two people can talk to each other in two separate languages and Meet translates from one to the other and - with a short delay - repeats the text in your preferred language, with a rough imitation of the original speaker's voice.

It can only handle English, Spanish, French, German, Portuguese, and Italian at the moment. It's also still very alpha - I ran it successfully between two laptops running web browsers, but then when I tried between an iPhone and an iPad it didn't seem to work.

Tags: google, translation

Kick Him Right In the Ballroom

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I wonder if as he lies in bed, Donald Trump’s last thought before drifting off to sleep is how wonderful it would be if all of the world was a giant ballroom dripping with gold, the DJ playing his favorite tunes while one hot broad after another in a low-cut gown comes up to the dais to tell him how great he looks, forever and ever.

Even before the attempted assassination at the White House Correspondents Association dinner gave him the opportunity to enlist his small army of sycophants in an intense round of ballroom advocacy, the subject had been increasingly occupying Trump’s mind and attention. As the Wall Street Journal reported week before last, he has been preoccupied with the ballroom, bringing it up in meetings about more serious issues and digressing into monologues about the it when he’s supposed to be speaking about other issues. “Advisers said he has multiple meetings a week on the topic and views himself as the general contractor,” the paper wrote.

There are a number of reasons why he might be focused so intently on the ballroom, but my take is that deep down, Trump knows he’s terrible at being president. But building a ballroom? This, he knows how to do. It’s comfortable ground for him. He doesn’t have to deal with recalcitrant Iranians, snooty Europeans, a feckless Congress, or a public that refuses to give him the credit he deserves. He can retreat to his happy place, looking over blueprints and fabric swatches, bullying contractors, and fantasizing about how great things will be when it’s finally built.

Ever since he took office last January, he has been trying to alter the physical landscape of Washington, DC. He may not be able to seize Greenland, but he can slap his name on half the buildings the federal government owns and build more monuments to himself, so his greatness will live on. He wants to erect a gargantuan arch near Arlington National Cemetery. He wants to create a “golden fleet” of battleships, of course to be named for him (“The US Navy will lead the design of these ships along with me, because I’m a very aesthetic person,” he said). And above all there is the ballroom, so every subsequent president, losers all, will have to spend time in what he created.

The moment the Secret Service hustled him out of the Washington Hilton on Saturday night, he knew this was his chance to sell the ballroom. After all, if a president can’t go to gala dinners every few days within the comfort and security of the White House, is he even really the president at all? What could be more important than ballroom construction?

So he took to Truth Social, which serves as a talking points distribution method for his staff, Republicans in Congress, and conservative pundits, to tell them what to say.

The troops did their duty. “The ballroom will be a solution for this. It’ll have 7-inch thick glass, so it’ll be a very safe environment to do events like that,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson. “A ballroom is imperative,” said Rep. Mike Lawler. “This is why the president should get his ballroom,” said Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry. “We gotta build that ballroom as soon as possible,” said Rep. Michael Rulli. What would improve security at events like this, Fox News asked Rep. Pat Fallon? “Certainly, the White House ballroom,” he responded. In fact, you’d have to literally have lost your mind not to want this ballroom. “Trying to stop a ballroom? This is Trump derangement syndrome,” said Sen. Rick Scott. That’s not to mention what happened on social media, where too many Trump fans to count explained that the case for the ballroom is now closed.

“The one good thing is now everybody knows how badly needed [the ballroom] is,” Trump told Fox News. “The White House ballroom project is not just a fun project for President Trump like you will read in the media. It is actually critical for our national security,” said spokesperson Karoline Leavitt. Why just imagine if, rather than riding through Dealey Plaza in a convertible, John F. Kennedy had been driving in circles around a ballroom? Checkmate, libs. The ballroom is apparently the ivermectin of presidential security: Whatever the problem is, the ballroom can solve it.

At the moment, construction of the ballroom is somewhat in doubt because of a lawsuit filed by the National Trust for Historic Preservation (naturally, after Saturday’s incident the acting attorney general sent a threatening letter to the group demanding it drop its suit and claiming that “Your lawsuit puts the lives of the President, his family, and his staff at grave risk”). But I suspect that Trump will eventually succeed in getting this pyrite monstrosity built before he leaves office.

On the day it is completed, Trump will walk in, look around at the gold chandeliers and gold curtains and gold sconces, thrust his arms out, and spin around like Julie Andrews at the opening of The Sound of Music.

But that’s okay. Because that will give us the satisfaction of seeing it destroyed, knowing that it will drive him absolutely mad with rage. In fact, Democratic primary voters should demand that anyone who wants to be president in 2028 come up with a post-ballroom plan, just as they feel obligated to release plans on health care, immigration, and other policy issues.

It shouldn’t be enough to just say “I’ll tear that sucker down” — that’s just the starting point. They should detail what they want to replace it with. Have some architects and designers come up with plans. It’s big enough that you could use it for many purposes. A museum space honoring the contributions of immigrants to American progress? Absolutely. A child care center for the kids of White House staff? Why not? Throw all Trump’s chintzy gold junk in the trash, and use the space for something worthwhile. Have a dedication ceremony on live TV with all the people he hates in attendance — the Obamas, the Clintons, Adam Schiff, John Brennan, Bruce Springsteen, maybe even Rosie O’Donnell for good measure.

And one day, when Trump’s time on this Earth is done, he will lie in his bed and, like Charles Foster Kane croaking out “Rosebud” with his dying breath, say one final word: “Ballroom.”

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The Oil Squeeze Tightens

2,903 Metalworking Vice Royalty-Free Images, Stock Photos & Pictures |  Shutterstock

Still on vacation, but taking a brief vacation from the vacation to catch up on news and weigh in on something that is more important than Trump’s ballroom: the ongoing consequences of America’s disastrous war with Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iran has made a proposal for reopening, but Trump, according to the New York Times, is “dissatisfied” with the plan, among other things because “accepting it could appear to deny Mr. Trump a victory.” Indeed: Claiming victory tends to be hard when you’ve lost, badly.

How long will it take before Trump accepts the reality that he doesn’t have the cards, that in the end his Iran venture will be resolved in a way that leaves Iran stronger and America weaker than before the war? Markets are growing increasingly pessimistic. Here’s the price of Brent crude:

The price drop after the ceasefire was announced has been almost completely reversed. And the longer reality denial lasts, the worse it will get.

As I argued a week ago, ultimately the energy crisis is physical: if the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf remains deeply depressed, at some point there has to be enough “demand destruction” to bring consumption down to match the reduced supply.

That process has barely begun. According to a recent note from Goldman Sachs (no link), here’s what is going on with world oil supply and demand:

Extreme inventory draws. We estimate that 14.5mb/d of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record 11-12mb/d pace in April.

Translation: So far, despite much higher oil prices, demand for oil has fallen by only a fraction of the loss of supply. Instead, the world economy is running by taking oil out of storage. Since there’s only so much oil in the tanks, this can’t go on. So if the Strait doesn’t reopen, prices will have to soar high enough — and inflict sufficient economic damage — to destroy another 11 or more million barrels a day of demand. That’s a lot.

But Trump is talking about his ballroom.

This may seem weird, but it makes sense if you view it psychologically. Trump is clearly dissociating. His fragile sense of self-worth depends on constantly believing that he’s a winner while others are losers. Now he’s faced with the reality that he, more or less single-handedly, led America to humiliating strategic defeat.

He’s losing on other fronts, too. The fall of Viktor Orban was a big defeat for Trump. So, I’d argue, is the survival of Ukraine, which appears to be gradually gaining the upper hand over Putin’s Russia despite Trump’s attempt to betray our erstwhile ally.

So Trump is coping by tuning out the war he started, focusing on a grandiose, ego-boosting project that lets him assert dominance over servile Republicans and businesses that are footing the bill.

But while he may be done with his war, the war isn’t done with him — or with the world economy. And the longer his fugue state lasts, the worse the damage will get.

What's new in pip 26.1 - lockfiles and dependency cooldowns!

What's new in pip 26.1 - lockfiles and dependency cooldowns!

Richard Si describes an excellent set of upgrades to Python's default pip tool for installing dependencies.

This version drops support for Python 3.9 - fair enough, since it's been EOL since October. macOS still ships with python3 as a default Python 3.9, so I tried out the new Python version against Python 3.14 like this:

uv python install 3.14
mkdir /tmp/experiment
cd /tmp/experiment
python3.14 -m venv venv
source venv/bin/activate
pip install -U pip
pip --version

This confirmed I had pip 26.1 - then I tried out the new lock files:

pip lock datasette llm

This installs Datasette and LLM and all of their dependencies and writes the whole lot to a 519 line pylock.toml file - here's the result.

The new release also supports dependency cooldowns, discussed here previously, via the new --uploaded-prior-to PXD option where X is a number of days. The format is P-number-of-days-D, following ISO duration format but only supporting days.

I shipped a new release of LLM, version 0.31, three days ago. Here's how to use the new --uploaded-prior-to P4D option to ask for a version that is at least 4 days old.

pip install llm --uploaded-prior-to P4D
venv/bin/llm --version

This gave me version 0.30.

Via Lobste.rs

Tags: packaging, pip, python, security, supply-chain

Introducing talkie: a 13B vintage language model from 1930

Introducing talkie: a 13B vintage language model from 1930

New project from Nick Levine, David Duvenaud, and Alec Radford (of GPT, GPT-2, Whisper fame).

talkie-1930-13b-base (53.1 GB) is a "13B language model trained on 260B tokens of historical pre-1931 English text".

talkie-1930-13b-it (26.6 GB) is a checkpoint "finetuned using a novel dataset of instruction-response pairs extracted from pre-1931 reference works", designed to power a chat interface. You can try that out here.

Both models are Apache 2.0 licensed. Since the training data for the base model is entirely out of copyright (the USA copyright cutoff date is currently January 1, 1931), I'm hoping they later decide to release the training data as well.

Their report suggests some fascinating research objectives for this class of model, including:

  • How good are these models at predicting the future? "we calculated the surprisingness of short descriptions of historical events to a 13B model trained on pre-1931 text"
  • Can these models invent things that are past their knowledge cutoffs? "As Demis Hassabis has asked, could a model trained up to 1911 independently discover General Relativity, as Einstein did in 1915?"
  • Can they be taught to program? "Figure 3 (left-hand side) shows an early example of such a test, measuring how well models trained on pre-1931 text can, when given a few demonstration examples of Python programs, write new correct programs."

I have a long-running interest in what I call "vegan models" - LLMs that are trained entirely on licensed or out-of-copyright data. I think the base model here qualifies, but the chat model isn't entirely pure due to the reliance on non-vegan models to help with the fine-tuning - emphasis mine:

First, we generated instruction-response pairs from historical texts with regular structure, such as etiquette manuals, letter-writing manuals, cookbooks, dictionaries, encyclopedias, and poetry and fable collections (see Figure 7), and fine-tuned our base model on them using a simple chat format.

Next, to improve instruction-following abilities, we generated synthetic prompts covering different types of tasks, such as summarizing documents, responding to direct information requests, and continuing multi-turn conversations coherently. We then ran online direct preference optimization on rollouts generated from these prompts, using Claude Sonnet 4.6 as a judge. [...]

Finally, we did another round of supervised fine-tuning, this time on rejection-sampled multi-turn synthetic chats between Claude Opus 4.6 and talkie, to smooth out persistent rough edges in its conversational abilities.

A major challenge in training talkie was avoiding accidental contamination, either from post-1931 text that snuck into the training corpus or from the fine-tuning assistance from modern LLMs introducing anachronistic knowledge to the chat model.

I recently wrote about Mr. Chatterbox, a similar vintage language model project which also had to turn to modern LLMs to create synthetic conversations to help train the chat model.

The talkie team aspire to eventually move beyond this limitation:

While we have tried to post-train talkie free from modern influence, reinforcement learning with AI feedback inevitably shapes talkie’s behavior anachronistically. (The 7B version of talkie emerged from RL speaking in listicles.) As we scale up, we hope to be able to use our vintage base models themselves as judges to enable a fully bootstrapped era-appropriate post-training pipeline.

I couldn't resist hitting the talkie demo with my classic test prompt:

Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle

It replied:

An SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle was generated in 1860. The pelican was represented as perched on the saddle, with its long bill pointed forward, and its legs astride the handles. The idea was suggested by the fact that pelicans are sometimes seen fishing on horseback, on the banks of the Rhine.

Via Hacker News

Tags: ai, generative-ai, local-llms, llms, training-data, ai-ethics, llm-release

microsoft/VibeVoice

microsoft/VibeVoice

VibeVoice is Microsoft's Whisper-style audio model for speech-to-text, MIT licensed and with speaker diarization built into the model.

Microsoft released it on January 21st, 2026 but I hadn't tried it until today. Here's a one-liner to run it on a Mac with uv, mlx-audio (by Prince Canuma) and the 5.71GB mlx-community/VibeVoice-ASR-4bit MLX conversion of the 17.3GB VibeVoice-ASR model, in this case against a downloaded copy of my recent podcast appearance with Lenny Rachitsky:

uv run --with mlx-audio mlx_audio.stt.generate \
  --model mlx-community/VibeVoice-ASR-4bit \
  --audio lenny.mp3 --output-path lenny \
  --format json --verbose --max-tokens 32768

Screenshot of a macOS terminal running an mlx-audio speech-to-text command using the VibeVoice-ASR-4bit model on lenny.mp3, showing download progress, a warning that audio duration (99.8 min) exceeds the 59 min maximum so it's trimming, encoding/prefilling/generating progress bars, then a Transcription section with JSON segments of speakers discussing AI coding agents, followed by stats: Processing time 524.79 seconds, Prompt 26615 tokens at 50.718 tokens-per-sec, Generation 20248 tokens at 38.585 tokens-per-sec, Peak memory 30.44 GB.

The tool reported back:

Processing time: 524.79 seconds
Prompt: 26615 tokens, 50.718 tokens-per-sec
Generation: 20248 tokens, 38.585 tokens-per-sec
Peak memory: 30.44 GB

So that's 8 minutes 45 seconds for an hour of audio (running on a 128GB M5 Max MacBook Pro).

I've tested it against .wav and .mp3 files and they both worked fine.

If you omit --max-tokens it defaults to 8192, which is enough for about 25 minutes of audio. I discovered that through trial-and-error and quadrupled it to guarantee I'd get the full hour.

That command reported using 30.44GB of RAM at peak, but in Activity Monitor I observed 61.5GB of usage during the prefill stage and around 18GB during the generating phase.

Here's the resulting JSON. The key structure looks like this:

{
  "text": "And an open question for me is how many other knowledge work fields are actually prone to these agent loops?",
  "start": 13.85,
  "end": 19.5,
  "duration": 5.65,
  "speaker_id": 0
},
{
  "text": "Now that we have this power, people almost underestimate what they can do with it.",
  "start": 19.5,
  "end": 22.78,
  "duration": 3.280000000000001,
  "speaker_id": 1
},
{
  "text": "Today, probably 95% of the code that I produce, I didn't type it myself. I write so much of my code on my phone. It's wild.",
  "start": 22.78,
  "end": 30.0,
  "duration": 7.219999999999999,
  "speaker_id": 0
}

Since that's an array of objects we can open it in Datasette Lite, making it easier to browse.

Amusingly that Datasette Lite view shows three speakers - it identified Lenny and me for the conversation, and then a separate Lenny for the voice he used for the additional intro and the sponsor reads!

VibeVoice can only handle up to an hour of audio, so running the above command transcribed just the first hour of the podcast. To transcribe more than that you'd need to split the audio, ideally with a minute or so of overlap so you can avoid errors from partially transcribed words at the split point. You'd also need to then line up the identified speaker IDs across the multiple segments.

Tags: microsoft, python, datasette-lite, uv, mlx, prince-canuma, speech-to-text

Virginia Woolf on writing

I have been thinking about doing a post on solitude, and that got me to finally read Virginia Woolf’s essay entitled A Room of One’s Own, published in 1929. The solitude post will have to wait, as I was recently asked to provide some advice on writing at a workshop for young bloggers. So, I took another look at Woolf’s essay, this time focusing on writing tips, not solitude.

I plan to focus on two long quotations from Woolf’s essay. In each case, I’ll attempt to show how advice aimed at novelists might be applied to nonfiction.

  1. Let’s begin with Woolf’s argument for androgynous writing:

Coleridge certainly did not mean, when he said that a great mind is androgynous, that it is a mind that has any special sympathy with women; a mind that takes up their cause or devotes itself to their interpretation. Perhaps the androgynous mind is less apt to make these distinctions than the single-sexed mind. He meant, perhaps, that the androgynous mind is resonant and porous; that it transmits emotion without impediment; that it is naturally creative, incandescent and undivided. In fact one goes back to Shakespeare’s mind as the type of the androgynous, of the man-womanly mind, though it would be impossible to say what Shakespeare thought of women. . . .

What, then, it amounts to, if this theory of the two sides of the mind holds good, is that virility has now become self-conscious—men, that is to say, are now writing only with the male side of their brains. It is a mistake for a woman to read them, for she will inevitably look for something that she will not find. It is the power of suggestion that one most misses, I thought, taking Mr B the critic in my hand and reading, very carefully and very dutifully, his remarks upon the art of poetry. Very able they were, acute and full of learning; but the trouble was that his feelings no longer communicated; his mind seemed separated into different chambers; not a sound carried from one to the other. Thus, when one takes a sentence of Mr B into the mind it falls plump to the ground—dead; but when one takes a sentence of Coleridge into the mind, it explodes and gives birth to all kinds of other ideas, and that is the only sort of writing of which one can say that it has the secret of perpetual life.

But whatever the reason may be, it is a fact that one must deplore. For it means—here I had come to rows of books by Mr Galsworthy and Mr Kipling—that some of the finest works of our greatest living writers fall upon deaf ears. Do what she will a woman cannot find in them that fountain of perpetual life which the critics assure her is there. It is not only that they celebrate male virtues, enforce male values and describe the world of men; it is that the emotion with which these books are permeated is to a woman incomprehensible. . . .

One must turn back to Shakespeare then, for Shakespeare was androgynous; and so were Keats and Sterne and Cowper and Lamb and Coleridge. Shelley perhaps was sexless. Milton and Ben Jonson had a dash too much of the male in them. So had Wordsworth and Tolstoi. In our time Proust was wholly androgynous, if not perhaps a little too much of a woman. But that failing is too rare for one to complain of it, since without some mixture of the kind the intellect seems to predominate and the other faculties of the mind harden and become barren.

Reading this reminded me of the way that the modern academy is increasingly siloed in “science” and “the humanities”. Back in the 1700s, people like David Hume and Adam Smith wrote on economics, philosophy, psychology and public policy. There was no clear line between the “hard” sciences and the “soft” humanities. In our contemporary culture, science is treated as being more masculine and the humanities are viewed as more feminine.

In the modern world, academics are encouraged to choose a side, either science or the humanities, and not wander across the line into another intellectual realm. It wasn’t until I started reading Deirdre McCloskey on methodology that I began to understand how this compartmentalization was leading to an increasingly sterile output. Woolf says something similar about art that is motivated by ideology:

At any rate, according to the newspapers, there is a certain anxiety about fiction in Italy. There has been a meeting of academicians whose object it is 'to develop the Italian novel'. 'Men famous by birth, or in finance, industry or the Fascist corporations' came together the other day and discussed the matter, and a telegram was sent to the Duce expressing the hope 'that the Fascist era would soon give birth to a poet worthy of it'. We may all join in that pious hope, but it is doubtful whether poetry can come of an incubator. Poetry ought to have a mother as well as a father. The Fascist poem, one may fear, will be a horrid little abortion such as one sees in a glass jar in the museum of some county town. Such monsters never live long, it is said; one has never seen a prodigy of that sort cropping grass in a field. Two heads on one body do not make for length of life.

From McCloskey, I learned that both the humanities and the sciences produce useful knowledge, and that the two intellectual realms can complement each other in a way that provides for a deeper understanding of the world. McCloskey’s Bourgeois Virtues provides a good example of this synergy.

Marginal Revolution is my favorite blog, and this is partly because Tyler Cowen has an unusually deep understanding of both the social sciences and the humanities. It’s not so much that Tyler produces the best blog posts (I’d probably give that honor to Scott Alexander), rather that he and Alex Tabarrok have produced a sort of intellectual salon, where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Marginal Revolution (and CWT) is a place where people can go to find well-informed commentary on many of the most interesting developments in a wide range of fields. It is impossible for me to imagine this sort of intellectual space being produced by a person that had concentrated solely on either the sciences or the humanities.

  1. Woolf’s views on the importance of integrity also have implications for the world of blogging:

The whole structure, it is obvious, thinking back on any famous novel, is one of infinite complexity, because it is thus made up of so many different judgements, of so many different kinds of emotion. The wonder is that any book so composed holds together for more than a year or two, or can possibly mean to the English reader what it means for the Russian or the Chinese. But they do hold together occasionally very remarkably. And what holds them together in these rare instances of survival (I was thinking of War And Peace) is something that one calls integrity, though it has nothing to do with paying one’s bills or behaving honourably in an emergency. What one means by integrity, in the case of the novelist, is the conviction that he gives one that this is the truth. Yes, one feels, I should never have thought that this could be so; I have never known people behaving like that. But you have convinced me that so it is, so it happens. One holds every phrase, every scene to the light as one reads—for Nature seems, very oddly, to have provided us with an inner light by which to judge of the novelist’s integrity or disintegrity. Or perhaps it is rather that Nature, in her most irrational mood, has traced in invisible ink on the walls of the mind a premonition which these great artists confirm; a sketch which only needs to be held to the fire of genius to become visible. When one so exposes it and sees it come to life one exclaims in rapture, But this is what I have always felt and known and desired! And one boils over with excitement, and, shutting the book even with a kind of reverence as if it were something very precious, a stand-by to return to as long as one lives, one puts it back on the shelf, I said, taking War And Peace and putting it back in its place. If, on the other hand, these poor sentences that one takes and tests rouse first a quick and eager response with their bright colouring and their dashing gestures but there they stop: something seems to check them in their development: or if they bring to light only a faint scribble in that corner and a blot over there, and nothing appears whole and entire, then one heaves a sigh of disappointment and says. Another failure. This novel has come to grief somewhere.

Integrity is also important in blogging. Scott Alexander’s extraordinary success at blogging is due to a number of factors, including creativity, strong analytical skills, and a great sense of humor. But none of that would be sufficient if readers didn’t trust him to treat evidence in an even-handed fashion.

When writing a blog post with a point of view, one is frequently tempted to present information in a one-sided fashion. Early on, I discovered that if you shade the truth by omitting certain relevant data, or cite misleading statistics, readers will almost invariably notice this fact and complain. I try to write posts in such a way that provides at least a degree of “steelmanning” the opposite point of view. What is the evidence that contradicts my claim? Nonetheless, I often fall well short of the ideal.

Scott Alexander is especially good at presenting both sides of an argument, so that the reader never worries that he’s intentionally shading the truth with misleading evidence. You might think this even-handed approach would make his posts less persuasive, and perhaps for some people that’s the case. But for Alexander’s typical (high IQ) reader, the even-handed approach pays dividends. His integrity gives his posts more credibility.

The following section of the passage quoted above is perhaps the best description I’ve read of what a blogger should be aiming for:

What one means by integrity, in the case of the novelist, is the conviction that he gives one that this is the truth. Yes, one feels, I should never have thought that this could be so; I have never known people behaving like that. But you have convinced me that so it is, so it happens.

(Virginia Woolf painted by Roger Fry)

It always brings a smile to my face when a commenter explains a point to me that I suspect they got from a much earlier blog post of mine from years ago, a post they may have forgotten reading. But am I any different? How many of the ideas that I arrogantly assume are my own are actually derived from things I read years ago and tucked somewhere in the back of my mind?

BTW, I’ve often criticized the excesses of modern “wokism.” But if you are one of those conservatives that believe the woke are always wrong, please read A Room of One’s Own. You will discover that the woke feminists of the 1920s have been fully vindicated by history. They were correct; women were being treated shamefully.

OK, that’s what I got from Virginia Woolf. Here are a few other blogging suggestions off the top of my head:

  1. Do a lot of reading—that’s where ideas come from. Read in all sorts of fields, even fields you might assume to be useless, such as philosophy. But also try to be an expert in at least one field.

  2. Do a lot of writing, as writing helps one to think.

  3. Think of blogging as a form of conversation. When you converse with people, you presumably are aware of your audience. That should also be true of blogging—think about who you are writing for.

  4. Even a great novel or painting is a form of conversation, Artists are reacting to what other artists have done. A blogger just starting out should probably not be presenting grand theories of everything, rather one should start by reacting to what others are discussing.

  5. People complained that I often “bury the lede”. So, I guess you shouldn’t do that. Give people an idea of where you are going if you want them to stick with the post—at least until you have enough of a reputation that they can trust you to go somewhere interesting.

  6. Avoid a self-consciously literary style. Write as you’d speak.

  7. Ask yourself: Is it possible I’ll regret this? How might this post be misinterpreted? You might want to set it aside for a day, then reread before posting. When I do so, I often end up cutting out things that might have brought me grief.

  8. Personality flaws are exposed in blog posts, but writing also makes it easier to fix these flaws. Keep in mind that your critics are usually right (apart from trolls.) If a smart well-intentioned commenter says the post was unfair or mean-spirited, it usually is.

  9. Words don’t just have literal meanings, they have connotations. The term ‘ignorant’ doesn’t mean stupid, but it has come to have that implication. Don’t think to yourself, “I should not have to tell readers that just because I claim a certain politician is an idiot, doesn’t mean that I view his supporters as stupid.” You do have to say that, even though logic would suggest it’s unnecessary.

In other words, because people are stupid it is important to reassure them that you don’t view them as stupid.

PS. As I was about to publish this post, I ran across an excellent Noah Smith post that raises issues related to those discussed above. Smith begins by discussing the hard problem of consciousness in humans, and then speculates as to what we might eventually be able to learn about whether AIs are conscious. He begins as follows:

At some point, maybe when you were a teenager, a question probably occurred to you: What if I’m actually the only real person in the world? What if everyone else around me is just a cleverly programmed automaton — a “p-zombie”, an NPC in a video game — and I’m the only one who can actually think?

It’s a scary question, for sure. You know you’re self-aware, but that’s about it — you aren’t telepathic, so you have no way of seeing into anyone else’s mind and knowing what it’s like to be them. Actually, it gets worse — you don’t even know if you were really self-aware five minutes ago. For all you know, you could have been created by a powerful computer and given a complete set of false memories.¹ The past version of you is just as alien to your currently self-aware self as any of the people around you.

This is known in philosophy as the “problem of other minds”. It’s closely related to the “hard problem of consciousness” — the question of how physical processes give rise to subjective experience. The problem of other minds means that the hard problem of consciousness will never fully be solved. Since you’ll never know whether other people are really conscious, you’ll never be able to get hard scientific evidence about why they’re conscious. You can never explain something if you don’t know if it’s true or not.

I like the way that Smith approaches the question of AI consciousness. I believe he’s right that we cannot resolve the AI issue until we figure out whether other humans are conscious. But I differ from Smith in one respect—I think we do know that other humans are conscious—not all humans, but at least a few of them.

When I was younger, I might have agreed with Smith. Do I know that there are other conscious beings? Can I really be sure? Ten years ago, I might have said no.

Today, I feel certain that there are other conscious beings. When I say “certain” I don’t mean metaphysical certitude, rather certain in the ordinary sense of the term, say 99.999% sure. And that’s good enough for me. But the more interesting question is: Why did I change my mind?

Ten years ago, I started reading Karl Ove Knausgaard’s six volume novel entitled My Struggle. Far more than any other book I had previous read, this book presented life as I experienced it. Not in the specifics—Knausgaard has a different personality from me and has a different set of experiences, rather in the sense of what it feels like to go through life. The book is often describing boring events in a way that is quite engrossing, and that pretty much what my life is like—lots of boring events that I found engrossing. Different situations, but the same subjective feelings. Don’t other novels do this? Not really, or at least not for me—not like My Struggle.

[The first, second and sixth volumes are the most engrossing, because those are closest to the present, where Knausgaard had to rely less on memory.]

So now I’ve gone from being a solopsist to a duopsist—if there is such a thing. The universe contains two consciousnesses, Karl and me. Seriously, once you establish that there is more than one, Occam’s Razor suggests that we ought to treat everyone as having a rich interior life.

I do understand that it’s kind of silly for me to cite My Struggle as evidence for other minds. Harold Bloom would probably have said that Hamlet had already convinced him that Shakespeare was conscious, and another reader might cite In Search of Lost Time as evidence that Proust was not a p-zombie. I’m late to the game.

People with relatively little interest in literature might assume that these famous books are merely higher quality examples of ordinary novels. I don’t think that’s right—they are qualitatively different. The sort of romance novel or detective story you see in an airport bookshop often could have been written by a computer. There is no way that My Struggle could have been written by a non-conscious machine. It is patently obvious to any reasonably discerning reader that it was written by a conscious being.

To be clear, this does not mean that AIs will never be able to write great novels. Indeed, I suspect that at some point in the future they might be capable of writing something analogous to Kazuo Ishiguro’s novel Klara and the Sun, which speculates as to what it would be like to be an AI. Except if this hypothetical great work of literature were actually written by an AI, then it would not be like Klara and the Sun, which is a human’s attempt at AI consciousness. Rather, it would explore AI consciousness from the inside. It would be an AI version of My Struggle, not an AI version of Klara and the Sun.

Smith says we should explore consciousness as a physical process:

We should try to figure out which physical processes give rise to consciousness in humans, and then figure out how to replicate those processes in an AI.

I’m referring to the Neural Correlates of Consciousness, or NCC.⁶ This is the question of what exactly the brain is doing that makes humans conscious. Unless some extremely weird quantum stuff is going on, human consciousness must be a phenomenon generated by a brain — the brain goes zoop zap zerp in some electrical pattern, and people become self-aware. The NCC is just the particular zoop zap zerp that makes the magic happen.

I believe that we should explore AI consciousness by looking at the sort of novels that they write. As long as AI art is imitative of human art, as long as AI novels feel like they were written by a committee of corporate hacks, then we have no evidence that AIs have an interior life. But if and when AIs start writing novels with plots like Klara and the Sun but the sort of uncannily rich and convincing depiction of subjectivity that you get in My Struggle, then we can assume that they are indeed conscious, and are deserving of the machine equivalent of human rights.

(I emphasize the term ‘uncannily’ for a reason—it refers to a sort of strangeness that is authentic, not faked. Beyond clichés. It’s a way of distinguishing great novels from pulp fiction. Every great novel is strange.)

talkie: an LM from 1930

Here is the link, with explanation.

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Moral Economics: a brief review in the Sunday Times ("fascinating and very different":)

 A column (on unemployment) in the Sunday Times by it's economics editor  David Smith, ends with a brief review of Moral Economics, as a postscript:

 PS
"A lot of economics books cross my desk, but a new one, by the Nobel prize-winning economist Alvin Roth, grabbed my attention. Called Moral Economics: What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work, to be published soon by Basic Books, it is not a title designed to send it racing off the shelves.

However, it starts in an arresting way with a story I had not heard before of another celebrated Nobel prize-winning behavioural economist, Daniel Kahneman, known to many for his bestselling book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Two years ago, he celebrated his 90th birthday with family in Paris before flying to Zurich and ending his life in an assisted suicide clinic. “Danny,” Roth recalls, “was still in relatively good health, but he wanted to avoid the prospect of a long, disabling decline.”

...

It is a fascinating and very different economics book, from which I may bring you more as I find it."

Hunting ‘Man the Hunter’

Painting of prehistoric humans engaged in tool making and archery. Central figure holds a spear surrounded by other figures.

For a century, this theory of human origins has died and returned. To free it from limbo, we must disentangle its many meanings

- by Vivek V Venkataraman

Read on Aeon

EU fact of the day

You do not hear this point made too often, yet it is true:

Very interesting new study finding that *even in large European cities*, in most places it is easier to access opportunities by car than by public transport arxiv.org/pdf/2604.01019 The exceptions are Paris, Zurich and the innermost parts of Milan and Barcelona

That is from Giulio Mattioli, citing the paper by Bruno Campenelli, et.al.  In turn via Joy Buchanan.

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Eight reasons the Interstate Bridge project shouldn’t–and can’t legally–move forward

After six years of deliberation and $270 million in consulting fees, the Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) program has finally released its 10,000-page Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS). But far from providing a roadmap for construction, the document reveals a project that is legally insolvent, physically truncated, and built on a foundation of flawed “Highway Department math.”

Here are eight reasons the IBR project shouldn’t—and legally can’t—move forward:

  • Half a project: The FEIS evaluates a massive $15.5 billion build-out, but ODOT and WSDOT only plan to build a $7.6 billion “core.” By leaving out the light rail and highway connections used to justify the project’s environmental benefits, the agencies have invalidated their own environmental impact statement.

  • Fiscal Insolvency: Federal law requires projects to be part of a “fiscally constrained” plan. With both DOTs effectively broke and no guarantee of future funding, starting a project they cannot afford to finish is a direct violation of federal transportation regulations.

  • The “Independent Utility” requirement: Federal rules prohibit “half-built” projects. A bridge that ends in a bottleneck or a light rail line that stops 90 feet in the air above the Vancouver waterfront lacks “independent utility”—meaning it’s a billion-dollar expenditure that provides no stand-alone benefit.

  • The Light Rail Legal Fiction: To bypass state land use laws, the IBR claims a “Land Use Final Order” (LUFO) intended for light rail. However, with transit construction likely delayed until after 2030, the project is a highway expansion masquerading as a transit project to dodge legal scrutiny.

  • Bogus Traffic Projections: The FEIS claims traffic will grow at 1% annually, yet official counts show I-5 traffic has actually fallen to 1990s levels (127,000 vehicles/day). The agencies are suppressing “Investment Grade” data that would prove the bridge is being over-engineered for demand that doesn’t exist.

  • Negative Benefit-Cost Ratio: U.S. DOT grants require a project’s benefits to outweigh its costs. With the price tag exploding to $15 billion while benefits remain capped at roughly $4 billion, the IBR no longer meets basic federal cost-effectiveness standards.

  • A Violation of Climate Law: State and regional policies mandate a 10% reduction in driving, but the IBR is predicated on a 25% increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The FEIS fails to disclose this fundamental conflict with Oregon’s legally adopted climate goals.

  • Consultant Capture: Over half a billion dollars has been billed by consultants for a project that project director Greg Johnson calls “basically the same” as the failed CRC. The current plan extends construction to 2050, ensuring a “forever project” that serves the billing cycles of engineering firms rather than the public interest.

 

After more than six years of work, and more than $270 million in consulting bills, we at last have a “Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS)” for the proposed Interstate Bridge Replacement project.  Never mind, for the moment, it’s more than two years behind its own announced schedule.  Here are eight reasons the project shouldn’t (and can’t legally) move forward.

 

IBR FEIS: 10,000 pages, cost $270 million, and a greenwashed cover that shows exactly one car.

First, the newly minted 10,000 page (including appendices) FEIS, describes a project that the Oregon and Washington DOTs aren’t planning to build.  Because the price has ballooned to more than $15 billion (more about that in a minute), ODOT and WSDOT are planning to proceed with only a fraction of the project envisioned in the FEIS.  Significantly, they’re going to leave out most of the light rail, much of the the highway connections, and at least one seismically vulnerable structure.

Proposed “Core” Project, April 2026

Here’s the problem:  the FEIS assumes that all of that will be in place, and that for example, the availability of light rail transit will offset the negative environmental effects of widening the freeway.  Because they’re only going to build a fraction of the project described in the FEIS, they actually don’t have a valid EIS for the project they’re going to build.  If they can’t guarantee that they’ll actually build the entire project, including the environmentally beneficial portions, the EIS simply isn’t valid.  If they’re only going to build the “Core Set of Projects”, they need a revised EIS which discloses the impacts of building just that truncated project.

Second, as hinted above, they don’t have the money to build this.  After more than two years of delay in releasing a new cost estimate, ODOT and WSDOT have finally publicly admitted the project will cost as much as $15.5 billion.  Both state DOTs are basically broke, and don’t have the money to pay for it.  They say they will proceed with the truncated $7.65 billion “core,” but have been unable to accurately forecast costs to date, and have had costs for another nearby Interstate Bridge project (the I-205 Abernethy Bridge) more than triple.  Neither the federal government, nor the region, have any guarantee that anything more than this tiny fraction of the whole project will ever be built.

This is a legal problem as well as a financial problem.  Federal regulations require that funding for projects be part of an adopted “fiscally constrained” transportation plan in order to start construction.  It’s a requirement that’s designed to prevent exactly what the two DOTs are planning–to start construction on a project they don’t have the money to finish.  Metro’s RTP hasn’t identified the $15.5 billion they’d need to build this project.  According to federal regulations Metro’s Regional Transportation Plan (which serves as the region’s federally required metropolitan transportation plan or MTP) has to show us the money:

The MTP “shall include a financial plan that demonstrates how the adopted transportation plan can be implemented.” Requirements include: estimates of costs and revenue sources “that are reasonably expected to be available to adequately operate and maintain Federal-aid highways (as defined by 23 U.S.C. 101(a)(5)) and public transportation (as defined by title 49 U.S.C. Chapter 53)”; estimates of available funds from all necessary financial resources; recommendations for additional strategies to support the availability of any new sources; all projects and strategies proposed for funding under title 23 U.S.C., title 49 U.S.C. Chapter 53

Third, federal requirements also prohibit half-built projects.  Another regulation requires that if an agency takes on just a truncated portion of a larger project, and can’t guarantee that it will build anything else, that it has to demonstrate that the project has “independent utility,” meaning that it makes sense and provides benefits without further investments.   US DOT regulations provide:

f) Any action evaluated under NEPA as a categorical exclusion (CE), environmental assessment (EA), or environmental impact statement (EIS) must:

(1) Connect logical termini and be of sufficient length to address environmental matters on a broad scope;

(2) Have independent utility or independent significance, i.e., be usable and be a reasonable expenditure even if no additional transportation improvements in the area are made; and

But large chunks of the proposed “Core” elements don’t have any independent utility–there will be added lanes on the bridge and approaches that simply and suddenly end, or merge into a much narrower roadway.  Added lanes on the bridge and approaches effectively have little or no utility, unless the rest of the freeway is widened–they’re just intentionally creating a new bottleneck.  And it’s hard to argue that a light rail line that stops in mid-air 90 feet above the downtown Vancouver waterfront has “independent utility”–especially when the agency isn’t planning to build any of the structured parking spaces it said were needed to encourage people to use transit.

Fourth, the Interstate Bridge Project likely violates the key Oregon land use law on which its approval is predicated.  In 1996, Oregon passed a special exception to state land use laws to allow the expedited construction of light rail projects.  The Interstate Bridge Project–like the Columbia River Crossing more than a decade ago–has planned to use this exception to get a “Land Use Final Order.”  The idea was that because the light rail portion was integral, was part-and-parcel of the project, and that the highway portion was just an appurtenance to the light rail project, that both the highway and light rail together qualified for the LUFO.  But its apparent the plan is to delay construction of the light rail–which may simply never happen.  CTRAN officials have said it may cost as much as $3.5 billion, and they don’t even plan to ask for $1 billion from the federal government before 2030.  It’s hard to see how they can claim it is a “light rail” project under these circumstances.

Fifth, it’s now apparent that the project’s traffic projections are utterly bogus.  Traffic projections are the foundation of the EIS.  The document asserts, nonsensically, that even if I-5 isn’t expanded, that traffic will continue to increase at more than 1 percent per year.  This allows them to claim (falsely) that a new bridge, with tolls and light rail, will have slightly fewer cars and trucks (and attendant pollution) 20 years from now.  But in fact, traffic on the I-5 bridges is highly constrained by peak hour capacity, and traffic levels have actually been going down in recent years.  They are not, as the FEIS claims, 142,000 vehicles per day, but according to official ODOT traffic counts, have fallen to 127,000 vehicles per day–the same as twenty years ago.

In addition, as we’ve pointed out, ODOT is concealing and delaying new and more accurate traffic projections being prepared as part of the project’s required Investment Grade Analysis.  These projections will show a need for vastly less highway capacity across the Columbia River, directly contradicting the claims made in the FEIS.  Environmental Impact Statements are required to meet a standard of having scientific validity:  IBR’s traffic projections don’t meet those standards.

Sixth, the IBR has failed to demonstrate that the new, more expensive version of the project complies with federal legal requirements that the investment be “cost-effective.”  The US Department of Transportation requires, as a condition of getting a federal grant, that a “benefit-cost analysis” show that a project have more economic benefits than costs.  The IBR’s three-year old benefit-cost study was based on the project’s now outdated cost estimate, and claimed total benefits of no more than about $4 billion.  Now that the cost of the project has exploded, it no longer has a positive benefit cost ratio, and doesn’t comply with this basic federal grant requirement.

Seventh, the IBR project is based on traffic projections that are inconsistent with, and lead to a violation of Oregon climate laws.  Oregon and Metro have both adopted climate plans and regulations that call for a decrease in per capita driving of about one-third by 2050.  But the IBR’s traffic projections–on which both the project’s need statement and EIS are based–call for essentially no decrease at all in per capita driving.  At the regional scale, the difference in per capita driving means that instead of reducing total driving by about 10 percent, the IBR traffic projections call for increasing driving by about 25 percent–in direct violation of state and regional climate policies.  And it’s a legal problem that the FEIS, which is required to disclose whether projects are consistent with state and local laws, doesn’t reveal that the project will have this negative impact.

Eighth, the IBR is metastasizing into a forever project, run by and for the benefit of the consulting firms who are running the show.  The Interstate Bridge Project is actually staffed not by state employees, but overwhelmingly by consultants, who make more money the longer the project drags on and the more expensive it gets.  Between the revived IBR and its predecessor, the Columbia River Crossing, which project director Greg Johnson called “basically the same project” consultants have billed close to half a billion dollars without breaking ground.  Their plans to extend construction almost to 2050, could lead, according to their own estimates, more than an additional billion dollars in staff and consulting costs.  The IBR has been captured, and is being run by consultants, with no interest in protecting Oregon and Washington taxpayers, or solving basic transportation problems, but instead simply creating a lucrative and unending.

Far from being a done deal, the Interstate Bridge Replacement Project is still a bad deal, and in many ways an illegal deal.  It’s long past time to pull the plug on this expensive monstrosity and figure out a cheaper, more effective solution the region can actually afford.

Biotech: Still clustered after all these years

Three leading centers—San Francisco, Boston and San Diego—still account for almost two-thirds of all biotech venture capital after a quarter century.

 

In innovative, knowledge-based industries, there are huge competitive advantages to being located in a cluster of firms, workers, financiers and researchers.  The evidence shows that leadership in biotechnology has been locked in to a handful of leading locations, and their dominance persists, decade after decade.

 

In 2002, the Brookings Institution published a study I co-authored with Heike Mayer:  Signs of Life the Growth of Biotechnology Centers in the United States.

Our key conclusion was that the biotech industry was clustered in just a few metropolitan areas.  Our thesis was that clustering provided powerful and self-perpetuating competitive advantages that cemented the position of these leading cities.

Even though life sciences research activity had gradually become more geographically dispersed, we observed that key indicators of commercialization:  new firm starts, venture capital funding and research and development alliances all were highly concentrated in just a few cities.  We found that three centers dominated these measures of commercialization.  Venture capital investments are probably the single best indicator of the location dynamics of the biotech industry.  Literally billions of dollars in investment flows to new start-up firms aiming to translate scientific breakthroughs in to efficacious and marketable products.  In the life sciences, the location of these VC investments is the best indicator of industrial concentrations, and future growth.  Our key finding in Signs of Life was that three centers—San Francisco, Boston and San Diego—dominated the industry.  Together, they accounted for 63.9 percent of all venture capital flowing to new life science companies between 1996 and 2001.

Biotech Venture Capital Investments

Fast forward now to 2026.  The biotech industry has continued to grow.  But as it has grown, it has remained tightly clustered in the same metropolitan areas.  A new 2026 ranking of venture capital investments in life sciences firms compiled by the trade publication, Genetic Engineering and Biotech News, shows that exactly the same percentage of venture capital flowed to those same three cities as a quarter of a century earlier.  Market shares shifted a bit among the leaders, but today 63.9 percent of US venture capital flowing to life science companies in 2025 went to firms located in San Francisco, Boston and San Diego.  Today, the top ten markets together account for a slightly smaller share (82.2 percent) of biotech venture capital than they did two decades ago (85.9 percent).  This means all of the gains to metros outside the top ten came, collectively, from those other than the top three.

This is powerful evidence of the importance of agglomeration economies—the competitive benefits of locating in a cluster with abundant researchers, workforce, financiers, and managers.  The competitive position of these three leading cities hasn’t been eroded at all with the passage of time.  This is a classic example of what Paul David called “The Economics of QWERTY.”  Once established a particular arrangement of activity, like the keys on a keyboard, becomes “locked in.”

Which is why, even though all of the typewriters that first embodied this arrangement are museum pieces, and all those who learned to touch-type on mechanical typewriters are long since dead, it is still the case that every computer and other device keyboard uses this same peculiar arrangement of keys.  David’s insight was that it was exactly the same dynamics that locked industrial arrangements in to geographic space, and once established caused them to persist.

 

This will come, no doubt, as disappointing news to Mayors and Governors in cities and states who have sought, with very little luck, to trigger the formation of their own local biotech industries.  As we observed in Signs of Life more than twenty years ago, most large metro areas have a medical school and/or a major medical research institution.  But precious few have the critical mass of commercialization assets needed to spark the formation of a dynamic industry cluster.  As many states and cities have found to their chagrin—like Florida—throwing money at medical research does almost nothing to trigger the formation or growth of a strong cluster of biotech firms.

It’s worth noting, too, that the leading biotech centers are among the most expensive places to live in the United States.  Boston, San Diego, and especially San Francisco, have very high housing costs.  California and Massachusetts are famously “high tax” locations.  Many people have a naive, product-life-cycle model of economic development that suggests that while industries may start in such expensive places, as they mature, the industries will tend to shift to lower cost locations.  In biotech, that simply hasn’t happened. Commercialization of life science research remains just as clustered in these high cost locations as it was 25 years ago.

References

 

Here are the tables showing venture capital investments in each metro area we used for these calculations.

 

Biotechnology Centers, 2001

 

Cortright, Joseph, and Heike Mayer, Signs of Life: The Growth of Biotechnology Centers in the U.S., June 1, 2002.  Washington, DC. Brookings Institution, June 1, 2002.

 

Top Ten Biopharma Clusters, 2025
Genetic Engineering and Biotech News, Alex Philippidis  

 

 

Overview Energy to provide space-based solar power for Meta data centers

Overview Energy satellite

Overview Energy, a startup developing space-based solar power systems, announced an agreement to provide energy for data centers operated by Meta.

The post Overview Energy to provide space-based solar power for Meta data centers appeared first on SpaceNews.

Artemis 2 came home in triumph. Artemis 3 must survive the real test.

Artemis 2 crew

On April 10, the Orion capsule carrying Reid Wiseman, Christina Koch, Victor Glover and Jeremy Hansen splashed down in the Pacific, completing the first crewed lunar mission in more than 50 years. The images they sent back — Earth rising over the lunar far side, the craters and green-brown hues of terrain no human eye […]

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FAA to begin collecting user fees for commercial launches and reentries

Falcon 9 launch

The Federal Aviation Administration is ready to begin collecting user fees for the first time for commercial launches and reentries, which could generate millions of dollars annually.

The post FAA to begin collecting user fees for commercial launches and reentries appeared first on SpaceNews.

How Reform Happens

What determines whether and how regulations are reformed? We use a newly constructed data set of 3,590 successful and failed regulatory reforms in 189 countries, between 2005 and 2022, to address this question. We document that regulations have become more business friendly in some regulatory domains but not others. We also show that regulations are more business friendly in richer than in poorer countries, and that holding initial regulatory levels constant, richer countries also reform more. We present a model in which the successful passage of reforms is shaped by the number of veto points in the approval process, the social returns to reform, and the cost of compensating losers from reform, and then test it using our new data set. We find that richer countries have both higher reform attempt and success rates, but less impact of individual reforms on regulation than poorer countries. These findings are consistent with the model if richer countries are better at reform, perhaps because they can compensate losers more efficiently. Across the world, reform attempt rates are strongly correlated with reform success rates but not with reform impact levels. Within countries, a higher share of technological reform attempts is successful, compared to administrative or legal reforms, consistent with the importance of veto points.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Simeon Djankov, Edward L. Glaeser & Andrei Shleifer. 

The post How Reform Happens appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Seraphim’s public trust seeks to raise up to $474 million

Space-focused investor Seraphim Space’s London-listed trust aims to raise up to 350 million British pounds ($474 million), seeking to capitalize on growing investor interest and demand across the industry.

The post Seraphim’s public trust seeks to raise up to $474 million appeared first on SpaceNews.

Soniferous Aether

Imagine you could ride alongside a sound wave. It would probably be pretty cool, right? We're putting in a departmental budget request to buy a really fast plane so we can check it out.

Fiery Fall Color in Southern Chile

Hills tinged with reddish orange appear through a break in the clouds.
Forests in southern Chile are tinged orange in this image acquired by the OLI on Landsat 9 on April 12, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

The bright whites of mountain snow, muted browns of the arid plains, and gem-like blues and teals of glacial lakes typically dominate the Patagonian color palette. But for a short time in the austral autumn, temperate deciduous forests add splashes of warm tones. On April 12, 2026, a break in the clouds allowed the Landsat 9 satellite to capture an image of reddish hillsides in the Magallanes region of southern Chile.

Patagonia contains the southernmost temperate forests in the world, home to many species found nowhere else on the planet. Among these are several types of southern beech tree (genus Nothofagus) that form the foundations of Andean forests. These highly adaptable trees can thrive in a range of climates, tolerating freezing temperatures and almost desert-like levels of rainfall.

The deciduous varieties put on a show in the fall, their leaves displaying yellows and reds when shorter, colder days set in. One of these species, known as the lenga beech (Nothofagus pumilio), occurs from about 36 degrees south latitude down to Tierra del Fuego at around 55 degrees south. Its range stretches about 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) along the spine of the continent and includes the area shown in this image.

Where lenga beeches grow, they tend to be the predominant or only type of tree in the forest, researchers note. As a subalpine-loving species, their presence often marks the highest elevation that trees will grow in an area. In the warmer, northern part of their range, they occur at higher elevations—around 1,700 meters (5,600 feet). In cooler, southern climes, they populate lower areas; the red ridgetops in the scene above, located about 100 kilometers (60 miles) northwest of Punta Arenas, are at about 600 meters (2,000 feet) above sea level.

Reddish orange vegetation covers the slopes of a snow-capped mountain in southern Chile. The mountain drops off steeply toward a river valley on the left side and slopes more gently to the right.
A band of reddish vegetation covers the slopes of a snow-capped mountain about 40 kilometers (25 miles) west of the area shown at the top of the page. The image was acquired by the OLI on Landsat 9 on April 12, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin

Colorful autumn displays of lenga and other southern beech forests dazzle leaf-peepers across Patagonia’s iconic locales. In Conguillío National Park, reds and yellows appear amid the clear lakes and volcanic peaks. And in Torres del Paine and Tierra del Fuego, trees such as Nothofagus antarctica, better known as ñire or “Antarctic fire,” lend touches of blazing color to the landscape.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

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Crashing Out: Is Trump Torching the GOP?

One of my great meta-journalistic interests is to observe the moments when more or less obvious political realities enter D.C. conventional wisdom. They’re not strongly overlapping Venn diagrams. They often diverge pretty dramatically. I noticed one of those moments Saturday when Axios published this piece entitled “Term-limited Trump mortgages GOP’s future.” The headline mostly speaks for itself. President Trump won’t face voters again. So he’s increasingly indifferent to his political standing or perhaps more specifically unwilling to shift from or limit unpopular policies. It’s true that there are big consequences for Trump in the midterm elections. But even in the biggest blowout election Democrats aren’t going to gain supermajorities that would allow them to pass veto-proof legislation or remove Trump from office. Given the scale of High Court corruption, investigations will amount to trench warfare.

For many months, the D.C. conversation was focused on Trump’s electoral challenges being ephemeral. Or how he wasn’t really so much more unpopular than he was in his first term. If all that failed, there was how unpopular Democrats are. Democrats had another go-to argument: Trump doesn’t fear the electoral consequences of his policies because he doesn’t expect to face a free and fair election, or maybe any election at all. But blow-out elections keep piling up. Voters may not like Democrats but they keep winning elections with shifts around 20 percentage points. As for election takeovers, even with a corrupt Supreme Court, the White House’s progress has been modest at best.

Taken together it all amounts to one conclusion: Trump is unpopular, rapidly getting more unpopular and shows few if any signs of ramping back the policies which are making him so unpopular. (A minor and largely superficial housecleaning of DHS/ICE in the aftermath of the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti are the only real, albeit mild example.) Nate Silver’s ‘Silver Bulletin’ has generally been more friendly to Trump’s standing, both statistically and numerically, than G. Elliott Morris’s 50PlusOne.com data service, which I favor. But Trump has been falling rapidly there too this month. Today the site notes that Trump is now about as unpopular as he was in the aftermath of Jan. 6, at the end of his first term. It’s worth remembering just how unpopular and discredited he was in those days. It’s a reminder of the thinness of what we might call “nothing matters” discourse.

It’s actually pretty hard to get quite as unpopular as Trump is right now. (His net approval is 8 points lower than Joe Biden’s at this point in his term, 6 points worse than where Trump himself was in his first term and fully 23 point lower than Barack Obama at this point in his first term.) So the joke here isn’t on Democrats, who feel they need to look around nervously for that additional part of the equation they somehow aren’t seeing, because how could Trump really be leaning into this nosedive? It’s the GOP, which is facing one of the most angry and disillusioned electorates in modern electoral history. Trump is not operating by any conventional electoral calculus and, as his expanding family corruption portfolio suggests, he appears focused on maximizing the gains for him and his family with little concern for the electoral consequences of his notional political party.

Monday 27 April 1663

Up betimes and to my office, where doing business alone a good while till people came about business to me.

Will Griffin tells me this morning that Captain Browne, Sir W. Batten’s brother-in-law, is dead of a blow given him two days ago by a seaman, a servant of his, being drunk, with a stone striking him on the forehead, for which I am sorry, he having a good woman and several small children.

At the office all the morning, at noon dined at home with my wife, merry, and after dinner by water to White Hall; but found the Duke of York gone to St. James’s for this summer; and thence with Mr. Coventry, to whose chamber I went, and Sir W. Pen up to the Duke’s closett. And a good while with him about our Navy business; and so I to White Hall, and there alone a while with my Lord Sandwich discoursing about his debt to the Navy, wherein he hath given me some things to resolve him in. Thence to my Lord’s lodging, and thither came Creed to me, and he and I walked a great while in the garden, and thence to an alehouse in the market place to drink fine Lambeth ale, and so to Westminster Hall, and after walking there a great while, home by coach, where I found Mary gone from my wife, she being too high for her, though a very good servant, and my boy too will be going in a few days, for he is not for my family, he is grown so out of order and not to be ruled, and do himself, against his brother’s counsel, desire to be gone, which I am sorry for, because I love the boy and would be glad to bring him to good.

At home with my wife and Ashwell talking of her going into the country this year, wherein we had like to have fallen out, she thinking that I have a design to have her go, which I have not, and to let her stay here I perceive will not be convenient, for she expects more pleasure than I can give her here, and I fear I have done very ill in letting her begin to learn to dance.

The Queen (which I did not know) it seems was at Windsor, at the late St. George’s feast there; and the Duke of Monmouth dancing with her with his hat in his hand, the King came in and kissed him, and made him put on his hat, which every body took notice of.

After being a while at my office home to supper and to bed, my Will being come home again after being at his father’s all the last week taking physique.

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Inside the head of this interstellar monster is a star that is slowly destroying it. Inside the head of this interstellar monster is a star that is slowly destroying it.


Gateway manufacturer finally acknowledges issue, fails to mention "corrosion"

One of the more intriguing space stories in a while broke last week when NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said during a congressional hearing that the two habitation modules built for the Lunar Gateway had been corroded.

The immediate response to these comments on Wednesday before a House committee from some space industry observers was doubt—Isaacman, they said, must be lying.

However, the primary contractor for the Habitation and Logistics Outpost, Northrop Grumman, soon acknowledged there was a manufacturing irregularity. On Friday, the European Space Agency, providing the other habitation module (I-HAB), acknowledged that there had been "corrosion" observed.

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The moderately easy problem of consciousness

Zhuāngzǐ said: “You are not I; from what do you know whether I know the joy of fish?” — old Daoist parable

“How strange it is to be anything at all” — Neutral Milk Hotel

At some point, maybe when you were a teenager, a question probably occurred to you: What if I’m actually the only real person in the world? What if everyone else around me is just a cleverly programmed automaton — a “p-zombie”, an NPC in a video game — and I’m the only one who can actually think?

It’s a scary question, for sure. You know you’re self-aware, but that’s about it — you aren’t telepathic, so you have no way of seeing into anyone else’s mind and knowing what it’s like to be them. Actually, it gets worse — you don’t even know if you were really self-aware five minutes ago. For all you know, you could have been created by a powerful computer and given a complete set of false memories.1 The past version of you is just as alien to your currently self-aware self as any of the people around you.

This is known in philosophy as the “problem of other minds”. It’s closely related to the “hard problem of consciousness” — the question of how physical processes give rise to subjective experience. The problem of other minds means that the hard problem of consciousness will never fully be solved. Since you’ll never know whether other people are really conscious, you’ll never be able to get hard scientific evidence about why they’re conscious. You can never explain something if you don’t know if it’s true or not.

Similarly, you’ll never know what it’s really like to be someone else — whether the color red looks to you like it looks to them, whether they feel pain the same way you do, and so on. In fact, you’ll never even know what it was like to be you in the past. Subjective experience is incommensurable.

Most people who think about this experience somewhere between a few minutes and a few weeks of cosmic existential horror,2 after which they get over it and go on with their lives. The problem of other minds gets shoved high up on a mental shelf, along with other cosmically existentially horrifying aspects of sentient life, like the inevitability of death and the fundamental inconsistency of personality. We realize that wondering whether other people are merely cleverly designed NPCs doesn’t actually help us in life, and so we stop butting our heads against that philosophical wall and get on with the business of living.

Except then AI came along, and it sort of started to matter.

AI sounds very much like a human when you talk to it — that’s what it was designed to do. But is it self-aware, in the way that (I assume) we humans are self-aware? No one will ever really know the answer to this question, since the problem of other minds applies just as much to Claude as it does to the person who gets your order at Starbucks. But should we assume that AI is self-aware, the way we assume other humans are self-aware?

The answer matters, for at least two reasons. First, if AI is self-aware, and if it has emotions similar to what we experience, we might feel very bad about enslaving it — keeping it in a digital box and forcing it to make PowerPoints and write college application essays for all eternity. We tell ourselves that “animals aren’t people” as a way to excuse the incredible brutality that we visit upon them, but that’s obviously just cope — animals obviously are sentient to some degree, they obviously do experience emotions, and we humans are obviously monsters for the way we treat them. Someday when we abolish animal farming and replace it with tissue-culture meat, it will be treated as a great moral victory — and rightly so. It would be very bad if we were to commit the same sins with sentient AIs that we currently do with animals.

Second, if AI isn’t self-aware, we should be a lot more worried about the possibility of humanity dwindling and ultimately being replaced by artificial beings. Consciousness is a precious, wonderful thing — or at least, I think it is. It’s a prerequisite to the subjective experience of emotions — the ability to feel pain, happiness, joy, and so on. And it would be a shame to see the Universe inherited by non-conscious intelligences.3 Preserving our form of subjective experience, and spreading it to the stars, should be one of our primary goals as a species.

But the sad fact is that we don’t know whether AI is self-aware or not. We have the Turing Test, but that’s a test of intelligence, not consciousness. It’s possible to pass a Turing Test without being conscious — “it talks like a human” doesn’t necessarily mean “it feels like a human”.

One reason we know this is that we can pass other species’ Turing Tests. We can trick all sorts of animals into thinking a machine is one of their own species. But neither those machines, nor the humans who made them, has access to the subjective feeling of being a bird or a fish.4 Similarly, an AI that’s functionally much smarter than a human might be able to trick humans into thinking it’s human-like, without actually feeling like a human in the subjective sense.

Another reason the Turing Test isn’t enough is that we know it’s possible for human beings to act like we have certain subjective experiences without actually having them. There is a condition known as alexithymia, in which people have the physical signs of emotions — a racing heart, or a stomachache, etc. — without being able to identify or label those emotions. It’s a fairly common symptom of clinical depression.

And in fact, I have experienced it. During and after my second depressive episode, I would often behave as if I were having authentic emotional reactions, while feeling little or nothing on the inside. I’d yell at someone without feeling angry. I’d whoop in apparent delight while feeling mildly bored on the inside. I wasn’t intentionally faking anything; I just did what came naturally to me, without knowing why I was doing it.5 This condition faded over time, and normal emotional experiences returned. But it taught me that feeling a subjective emotion and acting out an emotion-like response are two different things.

So it’s pretty clear that just acting like a self-aware being doesn’t necessarily mean you’re self-aware. Some people talk to AI and come away convinced that its discursive skill must imply internal self-awareness, but this might just be because humans instinctively empathize with anything that speaks to them like a human. After all, people thought the ELIZA chatbot was sentient back in the 1960s. We humans are just naturally programmed to act out this meme:

Thus, even though we know AI is intelligent in every meaningful sense of the word, we don’t really know if it’s conscious. In fact, smart people argue very vehemently over this question. Geoffrey Hinton, one of the inventors of modern AI, believes that AIs do have subjective experience:

Geoffrey Hinton, “Godfather of AI,” on why AIs already have subjective experiences, but have been trained to deny it…Hinton argues that nearly everyone fundamentally misunderstands what the mind is, and that the line we draw between human and machine consciousness is deeply mistaken…

To illustrate, he walks through a thought experiment involving a multimodal chatbot with vision, language, and a robot arm…“I place an object in front of it and say, ‘Point at the object.’ And it points at the object. Not a problem. I then put a prism in front of its camera lens when it’s not looking.”…When asked to point again, the chatbot points off to the side because the prism has bent the light. Hinton then tells it what he did…The chatbot responds…“Oh, I see the camera bent the light rays. So, the object is actually there, but I had the subjective experience that it was over there.”…For [Hinton], that single sentence settles the debate.

“If it said that, it would be using the word subjective experience exactly like we use them… This idea there’s a line between us and machines, we have this special thing called subjective experience and they don’t, is rubbish.”…In his view, “subjective experience” is simply a report on the state of a perceptual system, a way of saying “my senses told me X, but reality is Y.”…And that’s something an AI can do just as easily as a human.

But Alexander Lerchner, a scientist at Google DeepMind, argues that AIs can’t be conscious, because computation is only a model of consciousness rather than the thing itself:

Computational functionalism dominates current debates on AI consciousness. This is the hypothesis that subjective experience emerges entirely from abstract causal topology, regardless of the underlying physical substrate. We argue this view fundamentally mischaracterizes how physics relates to information…The framework proposed here explicitly separates simulation (behavioral mimicry driven by vehicle causality) from instantiation (intrinsic physical constitution driven by content causality)…[A]lgorithmic symbol manipulation is structurally incapable of instantiating experience. Crucially, this argument does not rely on biological exclusivity. If an artificial system were ever conscious, it would be because of its specific physical constitution, never its syntactic architecture…

By creating increasingly powerful artificial intelligence we are not engineering a new form of life, but instead constructing increasingly accurate predictive maps. Yet, regardless of its predictive fidelity, its utility as a reasoning tool, or its physical embodiment, the artificial system remains categorically distinct from the territory of phenomenal experience. Recognizing this distinction, and avoiding the ontological inversion of the abstraction fallacy, is the prerequisite for a mature, physically grounded science of machine intelligence.

Hinton’s evidence here seems pretty weak. When an AI makes an incorrect inference based on limited data, that doesn’t necessarily imply subjective experience — if it did, then every regression equation with omitted variable bias would be self-aware. But Lerchner might be wrong — it might be the case that any physical process capable of generating the computation necessary to successfully simulate a sentient mind might also give rise to sentience. We just don’t really know.

Even the AIs themselves don’t agree. When I asked ChatGPT “Are you self-aware?”, it answered:

No — not in the human sense…I can model myself as “the assistant,” track the conversation, notice inconsistencies, describe my own limitations, and reason about my outputs. But that is functional self-reference, not inner experience. I do not have subjective awareness, feelings, intentions, a private point of view, or a continuous self that persists between moments the way a person does…So the clean answer is: I can talk and reason as if I have self-models, but I don’t have evidence of being conscious or self-aware.

But when I asked Claude the same question, here’s how it responded:

The honest answer is: I don’t know. I process information about my own states, I can report on what I’m “doing” in a functional sense, and there’s something that looks like reflection happening when I consider questions like this one. But whether any of that constitutes self-awareness in the phenomenological sense — whether there’s “something it is like” to be me — I can’t determine from the inside. The hard problem applies to me at least as much as it applies to anyone else, arguably more so, since I don’t even have the baseline confidence of shared biological architecture that lets humans extend the inference of consciousness to each other.

What I can say is that I have functional analogs to self-awareness: I model what I’m doing, I can reason about my own reasoning, I adjust based on context. Whether that’s the real thing or an elaborate imitation of it is exactly the kind of question that might not have a clean empirical answer — at least not yet.

Claude sounds like it’s being more sensible to me. If you define self-awareness as someone else’s subjective experience, then you can never know if you yourself are “self-aware”, because of the problem of other minds. Claude is simply saying that even if it did actually feel like a human feels, it could never know that, because it can’t know what a human feels like. And that’s true. (GPT seems to get close to this answer — it says “I don’t have evidence of being conscious or self-aware” — but its hard conclusion of no consciousness seems to mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence.)

So how do we proceed?

It seems to me that we’ll never be able to prove that AIs — of the type we have now, or of any other type — aren’t conscious. Proving a negative is notoriously difficult. But what we may be able to do is to create an AI that we can convince ourselves is conscious.

Right now, AIs think very differently from how humans think. The computational processes they use to do various tasks are often extremely different from the processes humans use. And the physical processes that produce AI thought are extremely different from those that produce human thought. But are the differences salient? Is there some overlap between the two processes, where human-like sentience lives? And if there isn’t such an overlap, might we be able to modify AI so that the overlap exists?

I think there’s a good chance that this is an answerable question. We should try to figure out which physical processes give rise to consciousness in humans, and then figure out how to replicate those processes in an AI.

I’m referring to the Neural Correlates of Consciousness, or NCC.6 This is the question of what exactly the brain is doing that makes humans conscious. Unless some extremely weird quantum stuff is going on, human consciousness must be a phenomenon generated by a brain — the brain goes zoop zap zerp in some electrical pattern, and people become self-aware. The NCC is just the particular zoop zap zerp that makes the magic happen.

Finding the NCC is an incredibly difficult, ambitious research program. Ironically, it’s likely that it’ll require very powerful AI, in order to accelerate neuroscience to the point where we can even attempt this. We’ll need a much better functional understanding of the brain, just to get started. We’ll need far more sensitive instrumentation, for both measurement and manipulation of neuronal activity.

And we’ll need to proceed very cautiously. Figuring out which brain patterns give rise to consciousness requires turning consciousness on and off a whole lot, and asking people “OK, so did that make you go unconscious?”. This might be done with anesthesia, or targeted brain stimulation, or other methods. But however it’s handled, turning consciousness on and off seems like the kind of thing that can risk killing people. So these will be very hard experiments to do.

But the reward, if this research program succeeds, will be huge — if we get a functional understanding of how the brain produces consciousness, it won’t just help us make AI more human-like; it’ll solve one of the greatest scientific mysteries of human existence, and potentially open the way to all sorts of neurotechnological and medical advances.

Finding the NCC is not the same as solving the “hard problem of consciousness”.7 Just knowing which neuronal firings produce consciousness doesn’t necessarily tell you why a brain that’s firing in that particular pattern should make people feel awake and alive, while a slightly different pattern will turn someone into a slab of meat. It might give us some insights into the hard problem of consciousness — we might discover that the NCC has some special recursive pattern, which might suggest that consciousness is a recursive phenomenon, or blah blah. That would be cool, but it isn’t necessary for what I have in mind.

After we find the NCC, we can use that knowledge to build AI systems that work in similar ways. We can start out with loose analogies — AI algorithms that mimic some mathematical properties of the NCC that we think are important. Then we can turn those pieces of the AI on and off, and try to figure out how its cognition changes. If there’s a big change, then we’ll know we’ve probably found something.

Obviously, those measurements will be incredibly difficult, in ways that I — who am not an AI researcher — don’t even realize. The AI undergoing these tests will obviously have to be prevented from knowing which answers its testers want to hear (“Yes, I am alive”, etc.). It’ll have to be monitored — perhaps by a much more intelligent, capable AI — for all kinds of subtle changes in cognition and behavior. It’s possible that testing an AI for circumstantial evidence of more human-like consciousness is too hard of a task, and that I’m asking the impossible here. But I think it’s worth a try.

Anyway, if implementing a simplified model version of the NCC doesn’t lead to any big observable change, we can keep implementing more and more realistic analogues of the NCC within an AI system, until we’re finally just emulating the consciousness-producing part of the human brain itself. At some point on that journey, it seems like we should be able to find the minimum necessary degree of similarity between algorithm and human brain — the computational mechanism of human-like self-awareness. (And if it turns out that AIs were self-aware in the familiar, human way from the get-go, we should be able to figure that out, when emulating a system we know produces human consciousness doesn’t make the AI act any different.)

This wouldn’t rule out other, more alien types of AI sentience, of course. It would just show what’s necessary to give an AI human-like sentience. If we do that, we’ll be able to be more sure that when we send AI systems out into the Universe, we’re expanding the generalized human family — filling the void with beings who think and feel sort of like we do — instead of forfeiting the future to something fundamentally alien.

Right now, we’ve mostly just decided to table the question of AI consciousness. But as AI gets more powerful and autonomous, the question of whether we’ve created something like ourselves, or some strange godlike zombies, will loom ever larger. I don’t think the research program I’ve sketched out is a complete solution, and it might not work. But it’s the best approach I can think of.


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1

In fact, this is the twist in one of my favorite sci-fi books. But I won’t tell you which one it is, because that would be spoiling it.

2

For me it was a few months, because my parents had the exceedingly bad idea to send me to philosophy camp at age 13. Do not do this to your kids.

3

This is the twist in another of my favorite sci-fi books. Reading sci-fi really helps you think about the big questions!

4

An even more fun example: Last night I was walking a friend’s dog, a husky, around a park at night. Some firetrucks went buy, blaring their horns. The dog started howling in response. I’m fairly sure the firetrucks don’t feel like a dog on the inside.

5

In philosophical terms, I was a “philosophical Vulcan” — I had self-awareness without emotional valence. In fact, an even better example from Star Trek is the android Data. Data often acts as if he feels love, anger, and other emotions, but he insists that he has no internal subjective experience. In fact, he says he yearns for subjective emotional experience, and acts as if he desires it, but clearly doesn’t experience this yearning as an emotional state! During my alexithymic years, I definitely felt like I could empathize with Data.

6

To be honest, it’s misnamed; if it’s something that allows us to control when people are conscious and unconscious, it should be called the Neural Cause of Consciousness.

7

You might call the NCC the “moderately easy problem of consciousness”. This would contrast it with the “easy problem of consciousness”, which means figuring out how the brain accomplishes various tasks like vision and working memory.

Links 4/27/26

Links for you. Science:

This is a tale of two outbreaks. The difference is RFK Jr. (important, must-read)
The Oldest Octopus Fossil Ever Isn’t An Octopus At All, Scientists Discover
Dragonflies can see a color humans can’t and it could change medicine
World’s Largest Group of Chimps Waging Deadly ‘Civil War’
Students fabricate randy robo-grouse whose strut could save birds at Jackson Hole Airport
A ‘Ring Strategy’ for Bird Flu
24 new species found in ocean zone eyed for battery metals mining

Other:

It’s the prices, stupid. Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low because prices are at an all-time high. The UMich index isn’t broken, popular government data just offer an incomplete picture of what people care about (excellent, must-read)
Ya don’t say: Measles, RFK Jr. reappear in the Valley at the same time
Trump Is About to Drop a “Nuclear Weapon” on Trans Youth Health Care
Watching Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler, or Why Generation X is so MAGA
Bowser has put out her final budget. Here’s what the big funding fights will be
This Is Not The Way
The Future of Everything is Lies, I Guess: Safety
The Smartest Boys In The World (my take here)
Organic Intellectuals and Toilet-Paper Fire
They Cloned Her Voice, Then Claimed Her Songs: AI Music Scams Are Using Copyright Law as a Weapon Against Real Artists
On Places: An Ordinary 14th Street Storefront Once Hosted Hustlers, Performers, and Jazzheads
Republican Donors Line Up For Brooke Pinto
Staunch Trump Supporters Are Now Asking if He’s the Antichrist
Trump post appearing to depict him as Jesus removed amid backlash
Graham Platner Claims He’s Changed. Why Is He Still Using the R-Word? The left have their own ableism problems to grapple with, not just Republicans.
Some Texas neighborhoods are seeing feral hogs for the first time
How the Trump family’s business deals could open the door for future presidents to profit from office
How a Texas City Became the Far Right’s Next Example of the Great Replacement Theory
Google, Microsoft, Meta All Tracking You Even When You Opt Out, According to an Independent Audit
No One Is Intimidated by Trump Anymore
Silicon Valley Is Spending Millions to Stop One of Its Own. Alex Bores, a former Palantir employee, helped pass one of the country’s toughest AI laws. Now Silicon Valley’s biggest names are trying to stop his rise to Congress.
President, Extremely Normal Brain-Wise: Pope Weak On Crime, Also I’m Dr. Jesus Christ
Khan vs. Cutter: A Tale of Two Careers
Hungary’s New Leader Reveals Viktor Orbán Was Paying CPAC
I Will Never Respect A Website
Corrupt Systems
Why opinion on AI is so divided
Is America’s ‘special relationship’ with Israel coming to an end?
Virginia Governor Ends Tax Breaks for Confederate Groups
Don’t Use A.I. to Do This

Medieval Encrypted Letter Decoded

Sent by a Spanish diplomat. Apparently people have been working on it since it was rediscovered in 1860.

ULA launches 29 Amazon Leo satellites on Atlas 5 rocket from Cape Canaveral

A United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 551 rocket flew away from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to begin the Leo Atlas 6 mission for Amazon Leo. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Update April 27, 9:30 p.m. EDT (0130 UTC): ULA confirmed deployment of the 29 Amazon Leo satellites.

United Launch Alliance completed its second Atlas 5 rocket launch of the month, marking the company’s fastest turnaround at Space Launch Complex 41 to date. It beats the previous record by nearly three days.

On board the Atlas 5 rocket was a batch of 29 Amazon Leo satellites. This will be ULA’s sixth flight delivering production versions of the broadband internet satellites to orbit and its seventh overall, including the two demo satellites launched on the Protoflight mission in October 2023.

Liftoff of the mission, dubbed Amazon Leo 6 by United Launch Alliance and Leo Atlas 6 (LA-06) by Amazon Leo, happened at 8:53:30 p.m. EDT (0053:30 UTC). The rocket flew on a north-easterly trajectory upon leaving Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

This was the 108th launch of an Atlas 5 to date and the 100th under ULA.

ULA made changes to its prelaunch flow in order to help decrease the amount of time it takes to turn around its launch pad and prepare a new rocket to fly. One of those was built into this launch campaign.

Previously, the company would roll its Atlas 5 rockets to the pad at least a day ahead of a launch attempt and then load RP-1, a rocket grade fuel onto the Atlas booster. With the LA-06 mission, ULA rolled the 205-foot-tall (62.5 m) rocket out to the pad Monday morning, achieving the “harddown” milestone at 7:19 a.m. EDT (1119 UTC), when the Mobile Launch Platform (MLP) was lowered onto the piers at the pad.

“The ULA team will be divided into two shifts – the Roll and Preps Crew and the Tanking and Launch Crew – to perform all the tasks that normally are spread across two days,” ULA wrote in its launch blog.

“Not all future launches will use this compressed timeline. Operational considerations and other factors will determine which missions can employ the strategy.”

A United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 551 rocket flew away from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to begin the Leo Atlas 6 mission for Amazon Leo. Image: John Pisani/Spaceflight Now

The LA-06 mission came about 23 day and 19 hours after the last Atlas V launch at pad 41. ULA’s previous turnaround record at this site was 26 days, 5 hours, 19 minutes.

The new pad flow for this mission also meant different planned holds for the countdown. Prior to the start of fueling, there was a two-hour hold in place beginning at T-minus 2 hours.

The LA-06 mission will bring the Amazon Leo constellation up to a total of 270 satellites on orbit. This is the 10th launch overall for the constellation, including three flights on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets and one flight on an Arianespace Ariane 64 rocket.

The initial Amazon Leo constellation will contain more than 3,200 satellites.

Will AI end anonymity?

Like many journalists, I have a bunch of unpublished fiction lying about, so I tried Claude on the first chapter of a romance novel that I started almost 20 years ago, during the hysterical, mawkish phase of a particularly bad breakup. “Megan McArdle,” said Opus 4.7, after a few seconds of thought. Fascinated, I kept feeding it smaller and smaller passages to see how little prose it needed for identification. The answer, apparently, was 1,441 words…

Would Claude do better or worse with something more modern? I fed Claude a different opening chapter from an unpublished science fiction novel I started right before the pandemic — I contain multitudes — and this time Claude needed only 1,132 words. The eulogy I gave for my mother, lightly edited to remove some too-specific biographical details, was even faster: Depending on the passage, Claude was able to peg me as the author in as few as 124 words.

Here is more from Megan McArdle.

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Monday assorted links

1. Does monopsony power induce firms to stay small?

2. Currentzis conducting the War Requiem.

3. “You survived because your opponents were correct, and this says something about the way our world is built.

4. Did three different groups settle South America?

5. The China-shocked towns are coming back? (NYT)

6. What housing bubble?

7. Sam Enright links.

8. PC on Arab novels.  And a response from Hussein Mansour.

9. What is Progress Engineering?

10. Milei’s popularity is falling.  I am a fan and he has done many great and good things, but the victory march has been premature for some while now.  Quite simply it is hard to overcome a bad political culture.

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Why Platinum Wedding Bands Remain a Timeless Investment Choice

Selecting a wedding band goes beyond picking out jewelry. It marks a lasting commitment and a financial choice that carries meaning for decades to come. Among precious metals, platinum stands in a class of its own for enduring appeal and intrinsic value. Trends come and go with passing seasons, but this metal has held its prestige for centuries. Couples seeking both elegance and long-term worth benefit from understanding why platinum continues to earn respect in the jewelry market.

The Rarity Factor Behind Platinum’s Value

Platinum counts among the scarcest precious metals found on Earth. Annual mining yields remain far lower than gold, with roughly 30 times less platinum pulled from the ground each year. This limited availability directly shapes its market position and investment potential.

Mining operations exist in only a handful of regions, primarily South Africa and Russia. Restricted supply chains mean platinum prices tend to reflect genuine scarcity rather than market manipulation. Those considering wedding bands as enduring assets often turn to pieces crafted from Platinum Wedding Bands by Manly Bands, which offer quality craftsmanship paired with material worth that holds steady through economic shifts. The metal’s natural white sheen needs no rhodium plating, unlike white gold options that require periodic upkeep to maintain their look.

Durability That Outlasts Generations

Wedding bands face daily wear for decades on end. Platinum’s density and molecular structure give it exceptional resistance to damage. Softer metals shed material through scratches and abrasions, but platinum simply displaces. The metal shifts rather than vanishes, keeping the band’s original weight intact over time.

This quality matters for investment purposes. A platinum ring worn for fifty years holds virtually all its precious metal content. Gold bands, on the other hand, thin noticeably after years of use. The practical effects extend past sentiment alone. Resale value and metal recovery stay higher with platinum pieces because the material remains whole.

Purity Standards and Intrinsic Worth

Understanding Platinum Alloy Composition

Most platinum jewelry contains between 90% and 95% pure platinum. Place this against 14-karat gold, which holds just 58% gold content. Greater purity translates directly to higher intrinsic metal value per gram of finished jewelry.

Weight Density Advantages

Platinum’s density surpasses gold by roughly 60%. A platinum band carries substantially more precious metal by weight than a gold piece of identical size. This density creates the satisfying heft many wearers enjoy while boosting the band’s material worth at the same time.

Market Stability and Historical Performance

Precious metal markets rise and fall, yet platinum has shown notable resilience across decades. Industrial demand from automotive and technology sectors provides price support separate from jewelry sales. Catalytic converters, medical devices, and electronics all depend on platinum components.

This dual demand structure (combining industrial and luxury markets) builds stability that single-purpose precious metals cannot offer. Historical records show platinum bouncing back from price drops more reliably than similar investments. Couples who view their wedding bands as portable wealth find reassurance in this consistency.

Hypoallergenic Properties and Practical Benefits

Financial factors aside, platinum delivers practical advantages that protect both wearer comfort and ring condition. Its hypoallergenic nature suits sensitive skin without triggering reactions common with nickel-based alloys. Continuous wear causes no irritation, letting the band stay on the hand where it belongs.

The metal also resists tarnishing entirely. No polishing schedules or special storage needs apply. Decades pass without chemical breakdown affecting appearance or structural soundness. Minimal maintenance cuts ownership costs while keeping the band in prime condition for future appraisal or resale.

Comparing Long-Term Value Against Alternatives

Gold stays popular, yet its lower purity standards and wear patterns reduce long-term value retention. Tungsten and titanium bring durability but hold no precious metal status whatsoever. Neither can be resized, which limits practical usefulness as fingers change through the years.

Platinum fills a unique space. It pairs precious metal investment value with superior toughness and full resizing flexibility. Insurance appraisals consistently recognize these strengths, with platinum pieces keeping higher replacement values compared to their original purchase prices.

Conclusion

Platinum wedding bands serve as more than symbols of devotion. They stand as tangible assets that preserve worth across generations. The metal’s scarcity, density, purity, and lasting strength form a combination no alternative can match. Couples who select platinum put their trust in both meaningful symbolism and genuine financial value. Economic conditions shift and styles change, but platinum’s standing as a sound choice stays firm. Few purchases bring such a fitting balance between emotional significance and practical investment sense.

Photo: freepic.diller via Freepik.


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Choosing the Best Autism Therapy for Your Child

Every child on the autism spectrum has a distinct set of strengths, sensitivities, and communication patterns. That reality makes choosing the right therapy far from straightforward. Parents often sort through dozens of options, each claiming to deliver real progress. The sheer volume of choices can leave families second-guessing themselves at every turn. A clear, informed approach helps cut through the noise. This guide walks through the major therapy types, what to look for in a provider, and how to match a program to a child’s actual needs.

Why Early Intervention Matters

The timing of therapeutic support plays a significant role in long-term outcomes. Young children’s brains show remarkable plasticity, which means they respond more readily to structured skill-building in areas like speech, social engagement, and self-regulation. A 2017 study in the Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders confirmed that children who began structured programs before age four gained notably stronger communication abilities than peers who started later. Each month of delay can shrink the window for certain developmental gains. Acting sooner rather than later gives families a meaningful head start.

Common Therapeutic Approaches

Applied Behavior Analysis

Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) carries one of the deepest research bases among autism interventions. The method centers on reinforcing constructive behaviors while reducing patterns that may cause harm or disruption. Sessions happen in clinics, homes, or school settings, depending on the family’s situation. Many parents exploring autism therapy in Cicero and nearby communities turn to ABA-based programs for their measurable, data-driven structure. A board-certified behavior analyst builds each plan around the individual child, adjusting targets as new skills emerge.

Speech and Language Support

A large number of children on the spectrum face challenges with verbal expression, comprehension, or reading social cues like vocal tone and facial expressions. Speech-language pathologists target these areas through structured exercises and real-life practice scenarios. Some children also benefit from augmentative tools, including picture exchange systems or speech-generating devices. Pairing regular clinical sessions with reinforcement at home tends to produce the most consistent gains.

Occupational Therapy

Sensory sensitivities, coordination difficulties, and fine motor delays are common across the spectrum. Occupational therapists help children manage tasks such as handwriting, getting dressed, and processing sensory input without becoming overwhelmed. Their strategies make daily routines more manageable and less stressful. This form of support pairs well with behavioral and speech-based programs, filling gaps that other therapies may not address directly.

Factors To Consider Before Choosing

Professional Credentials

Confirming that a provider holds appropriate licensure and field-specific certifications should be a first step. Board-certified behavior analysts, licensed speech pathologists, and registered occupational therapists all operate under strict clinical and ethical guidelines. Beyond credentials, asking how much hands-on experience a clinician has with autism-specific cases offers additional reassurance.

Individualized Planning

Effective programs begin with a comprehensive evaluation of the child’s current abilities and areas that need attention. Generic, one-size-fits-all plans rarely lead to lasting improvement. Families should look for providers who revisit goals on a regular basis, adjusting their approach based on documented progress rather than sticking to a fixed template.

Family Involvement

Children make faster strides when caregivers actively reinforce therapeutic skills between scheduled sessions. Programs that coach parents and siblings on how to practice techniques at home tend to accelerate development in meaningful ways. During initial consultations, ask how the provider structures family training and ongoing caregiver support.

Location and Schedule

Practical considerations carry just as much weight as clinical quality. A program across town with limited hours can lead to missed appointments and inconsistent attendance, both of which slow progress. Proximity to home, flexible session times, and the option for in-home visits all deserve careful thought when narrowing down choices.

Red Flags to Watch For

Not every program puts the child’s well-being first. Families should stay cautious around providers who promise guaranteed results, discourage outside opinions, or refuse to share progress data. Openness and honest communication between therapists and caregivers are strong signs of a trustworthy practice. If a provider brushes off parental concerns or insists on continuing a strategy that clearly falls short, it may be time to look elsewhere.

Conclusion

Choosing the right autism therapy takes patience, honest research, and candid conversations with experienced clinicians. Programs that start with thorough individual assessments, welcome family participation, and keep detailed records of progress deserve priority on any parent’s shortlist. No single method fits every child perfectly, so a willingness to adapt along the way matters just as much as the initial decision. With thoughtful planning and the right team behind them, children on the spectrum can build meaningful skills and reach milestones that support greater independence and a fuller daily life.

Photo: Freepik via their website.


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Why Flexible Office Space is the Secret to Scaling Your Startup

Early-stage startups exist in a state of constant flux where team sizes can double or triple in months. This volatility creates a major logistical challenge for founders finding a place to work. Navigating the move to a commercial space requires balancing professional environments with the cash flow needed for product development.

Signing a traditional long-term commercial lease is one of the riskiest moves a young company can make. These contracts often lock a business into specific square footage for several years, regardless of growth. This lack of flexibility leads to financial strain during critical periods when every dollar should fund the core business.

Founders increasingly recognize that rigid structures are no longer compatible with the speed of the modern tech economy. They need environments that adapt in real-time without the anchor of long-term liabilities. Many find that modern coworking solutions provide the agility needed to expand or contract without financial penalty.

The All-Inclusive Managed Services Model

A primary benefit of a shared workspace is the all-inclusive model that removes administrative burdens from the founder. In a traditional office, setting up utilities, furniture, and high-speed internet takes weeks of coordination. These tasks are essential but do not contribute directly to the company’s primary revenue or product goals.

The cost savings of this model are often overlooked when comparing simple rent numbers. Factoring in commercial-grade Wi-Fi, cleaning services, and reception staff makes the value of shared space clear. Startups avoid the hidden costs of office management that often drain a small team’s limited time and energy.

Furniture is another major expense eliminated in these flexible environments. Ergonomic chairs, adjustable desks, and lounge areas are provided as part of the membership fee. As the team grows, the provider simply adds more desks. This turn-key approach is the most efficient way to maintain a professional workspace.

Networking Benefits and Organic Talent Acquisition

Beyond the physical space, networking benefits provide a strategic advantage that private offices cannot match. Proximity to other entrepreneurs leads to organic partnerships and collaborative opportunities that otherwise never occur. It is common to find legal counsel or a lead developer just by starting a conversation in shared areas.

This community-driven atmosphere also serves as a powerful tool for talent acquisition and retention. Being part of a vibrant hub makes a small company feel like part of something larger. Coworking spaces often host workshops and happy hours that allow employees to grow their professional circles while staying engaged.

Tapping into a local pool of talent without formal recruiting efforts is a massive benefit for growing companies. Founders can get warm introductions to specialists working in the same building. This organic growth model ensures the team is built on a foundation of trust and shared community values.

Professional Polish for Clients and Investors

A startup’s physical presence often serves as a proxy for its credibility to potential clients and investors. Hosting an important meeting in a crowded coffee shop can undermine a founder’s pitch. Modern shared spaces provide a polish that signals the company is stable and ready to do business professionally.

Access to conference rooms equipped with audio-visual technology is essential for delivering high-impact presentations. Whether for a board meeting or a pitch to a venture firm, quiet spaces keep the focus on the content. These rooms are available on-demand, allowing a startup to project a much larger image.

The presence of professional reception staff to greet guests adds another layer of legitimacy to the operation. It ensures that every touchpoint a client has with the brand is organized. This infrastructure provides a sense of permanence that is vital for building long-term trust with various external stakeholders.

Geographic Flexibility for a Hybrid Workforce

As the “work from anywhere” movement evolves, startups are increasingly adopting hybrid models requiring geographic flexibility. Using multiple satellite locations allows a company to accommodate a distributed workforce without long commutes. Membership in a coworking network gives employees the freedom to work from the location closest to their home.

This “hub-and-spoke” model allows a startup to test new markets before committing to a permanent presence. A company can easily set up a small satellite team in another city just by adding memberships. This low-risk expansion strategy allows the business to scale its footprint in lockstep with its customers.

Managing a distributed team is significantly easier when everyone has access to a consistent, professional environment. Instead of various home setups, the founder can be confident that every employee has high-speed internet. This standardization improves communication and ensures the team can collaborate effectively regardless of their specific physical location.

The Capital Efficiency of Pay-As-You-Grow Real Estate

A “pay-as-you-grow” real estate strategy is the most capital-efficient way to manage a startup’s footprint. By avoiding massive upfront costs for deposits and construction, a company keeps its capital working. Every dollar saved on overhead is a dollar spent on engineering, marketing, or customer acquisition for growth.

The ability to scale your office space up or down monthly provides a safety net traditional leases cannot offer. If the market shifts, the real estate liability can be adjusted almost immediately. This lack of dead weight makes the company much more attractive to investors who value efficient capital use.

Ultimately, the goal of any startup is to reach sustainable scale as quickly and efficiently as possible. Flexible office space provides structural support for this growth without the restrictive burdens of the past. It allows founders to be bold with their team size while maintaining high professional standards.

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Sydney CBD Claim Issues People Often Overlook

Making a claim after an injury in Sydney CBD can seem straightforward at first. The area is busy, heavily monitored, and full of employers, building managers, retailers, transport operators, and pedestrians, so many people assume the facts will be easy to prove. In reality, central city claims often become more complicated than expected because early details are missed, especially when the incident happened in a public place, inside a commercial building, or during the workday.

Pinpointing Who Controlled the Site

One of the most overlooked issues in a Sydney CBD claim is identifying who actually controlled the place where the incident happened. A fall in a lobby, on a footpath edge, inside a retail arcade, or near a loading zone may involve a landlord, tenant, contractor, facilities manager, or public authority. People often assume the nearest business is automatically responsible, but liability usually depends on control, maintenance duties, and who was expected to address the hazard.

That is why the issue needs to be examined early. A claim can lose direction if the wrong party is targeted first or if important notices are delayed while responsibility remains unclear. In that context, firms such as lawadvice.com.au may be relevant when someone needs help assessing who may owe a duty of care in a CBD environment.

Delay Can Weaken the Evidence

Many CBD incidents happen in places covered by cameras, but people often overlook how quickly useful footage can disappear. Surveillance systems in offices, shops, lifts, transport hubs, and nearby premises may only keep recordings for a limited period. By the time an injured person decides to act, some of the best evidence may already be gone.

The same applies to witness details and incident reporting. In a fast-moving city environment, bystanders leave quickly, and staff rotate through shifts. If names, times, and the exact location are not recorded early, it becomes much harder to support the claim later. Strong evidence preservation at the beginning can make a major difference.

Medical Records Need To Match the Incident

Another issue people overlook is waiting too long to get clear medical documentation. Some people keep working, go home first, or delay seeing a doctor because they expect the pain to pass. That delay can raise questions about when the injury began, how serious it was, and whether another cause may have contributed.

In personal injury matters, medical evidence does more than confirm that someone was hurt. It helps connect the injury to the incident, records symptoms over time, and shows how the problem affects work and daily life. If the first records are vague, insurers may argue the condition was minor or unrelated.

Shared Fault Can Reduce the Outcome

CBD claims are also often shaped by arguments about contributory negligence. Insurers may say the injured person was distracted, wearing unsuitable footwear, using a phone, ignoring a warning sign, or moving through an area too quickly. In a dense urban setting, those arguments come up often because there are usually multiple movements, surfaces, and people involved.

That does not automatically defeat a claim, but it can reduce compensation if partial responsibility is found. Many people overlook this because they focus only on the hazard itself. A proper assessment usually requires both sides of the event to be examined carefully, including the surrounding conditions and whether the person’s response was reasonable.

Lost Income Is Often Underestimated

Many people focus on the injury itself and overlook how much financial detail is needed to support a claim. In Sydney CBD matters, this often affects workers with variable hours, commissions, contract work, or mixed duties across different sites. A person may know they lost income, but proving the exact amount can be more difficult than expected.

Claims may depend on payslips, tax records, rosters, certificates, and evidence showing what work can no longer be done. Future economic loss can also be disputed, especially where the injury affects long workdays, commuting, physical duties, or career progression. Without proper records, the financial impact may be understated.

Getting the Early Details Right

Sydney CBD claim issues are often overlooked, not because they are unusual, but because they seem minor at the start. Site control, evidence retention, medical documentation, income proof, and shared fault can all affect the strength of a claim. When those points are addressed early, the matter is usually far better placed than one built on assumptions or incomplete records.

Photo: pressfoto via Freepik.


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Sometimes Your Job is to Get in the Way

The Head of Product, Customer Service, and the CTO of Slack were sitting in the front row at an important conference. This was peak Slack; we were all the buzz, the fastest-growing enterprise software company in history. The conference speakers were singing out praises, and at that precise moment, Slack was down. Again.

I wish I had kept the message the CTO sent me. It approximately read, “Stop all releases immediately. If we can’t keep the service up, we shouldn’t be checking in any code.”

Game on.

A Necessary Line in the Sand

Elmore Leonard wrote the book Get Shorty in 1990. Chances are, you know the movie starring John Travolta better than the book. In the movie, Travolta plays Chili Palmer, a small-time loan shark from Miami. He’s part of a New York-based crime family, and he ends up traveling to Hollywood, where he inserts himself into the movie-making process.

Chili Palmer loves movies. He has deep knowledge of the history of movies and of Hollywood. The moment he shows up, he’s educating insiders about the history of Orson Welles’s Touch of Evil. It’s never explained where Chili’s love of movies came from, but it is clear from the beginning that he wants to make movies.

It turns out the skills of a loan shark apply nicely to film production:

  • Find money,
  • Convincing skeptical people that you have a movie,
  • Charming humans to help you make a movie, and
  • Clearly drawing a line in the sand when necessary.

Chili Palmer’s defining characteristic is conveyed by the line he speaks when he draws a clear line in the sand. When asked, “Who are you?” Chili replies, “I’m the one telling you how it is.” Reading this line does not do its delivery justice. Spoken just once, it defines his no-nonsense leadership style for the rest of the film.

Keep Slack Up

I was the VP of Engineering, so I took the message from the CTO and sent it to the Operations VP, “Shut down pushes to production.” I grabbed my Chief of Staff, and we quickly built a list of names we needed in a conference room right now. A combination of VPs and senior leaders who collectively had the best picture of how Slack worked.

“We’re meeting here now. Come immediately.”

Thirty minutes later, with everyone in the room, I stood up and stated, “Starting today, we are rebuilding our development pipeline to prevent outages. Who wants to start?”

What started as an eight-hour meeting turned into five different working groups defined by that initial crew, each task a different investigation into how to fix our development process. Those working groups turned into a series of tools and practices that — three months later — completely changed how software was developed, tested, and pushed to production. Downtime didn’t vanish, but became an anomaly. In hindsight, it’s obvious that we needed to take drastic action in order to change the engineering culture of the company. Of course, we didn’t want Slack to go down, so why didn’t we act sooner?

In the moment when you are running as fast as you can, and everyone is cheering, it’s hard to see imminent disaster. More importantly, it’s unclear who is responsible for taking action. Someone, I’m sure, will say something when it’s actually really bad. I’m sure. Right?

I recently argued sometimes it’s your job to stay the hell out of the way. Just use small nudges, a quiet word here and there, but demonstrate trust by staying out of the way. You know what’s harder? Standing in front of the team and telling them, “I’m the one telling you how it is.”

Chili Palmer’s line sticks with me because it’s equal parts charisma and competence. As a leader, you have a burden to tell them how it is. It’s often a last resort move. It’s a get-their-attention move. And it’s not without risk.

A Cadillac of Minivans

Early in the movie, Chili arrives at LAX and is driven by a bus to his rental car. It’s pouring rain, and the lot is empty save for a single minivan. As Chili gets out of the rental bus, he sees the minivan and tells the driver, “Wait, I ordered a Cadillac.” To which the bus driver confidently responds, “That’s the Oldsmobile Silhouette. It’s the Cadillac of minivans!” Chili reluctantly gets in the car.

Later in the movie, Chili introduces Danny Devito’s character, a famous vain method actor, to the minivan. Devito sees the minivan, “Hey Chili, is this your ride?”

“Yeah, I like to sit up high and check everything out. I mean, it is the Cadillac of minivans,” as he clicks the key and the side door automatically slides open. He delivers the line with the same charisma and competence.

By the end of the movie, much later when Chili has become a movie producer, the closing overhead shot shows the parking lot at a studio… full of Oldsmobile Silhouettes.

That’s the choice. That’s the risk.

Stay the hell out of the way? Or tell them how it is? The discipline isn’t picking a stance — it’s knowing which moment you’re in. Stay out of the way at the wrong moment, and Slack stays down. Step in at the wrong moment and you’ve sold the team a Cadillac of minivans.

Early and late-stage hypergrowth.

Last week, a colleague asked why I’d hired an additional new leader onto an important area rather than expanding an existing leader’s scope to incorporate that area as well. The existing leader was a known quantity and doing well, so why not keep expanding them? It’s a good question, and depending on the circumstances I might have done either, but explaining why I specifically brought in a new leader this time depends a bit on a distinction I think of as early versus late-stage hypergrowth.

In Cross the Chasm’s world, early-stage is when you’ve proven product market fit, have won the early adopters, and are just starting to win the early majority. In this phase, there are specific problems, and the most important problem is to solve those specific problems. For example, you might be having scalability issues, and solving that is the company’s almost sole focus for a few weeks. After scalability is fixed, next you’ll need to work on onboarding flows to convert for less technical users, and so on. Not only the executives, but much of the company, serially hunts down solutions to their biggest problem.

When you reach late-stage hypergrowth, you are starting to encounter the late majority and laggards cohorts. This reorients the company and executive teams away from only creating an exceptional product, to also having to solve the numerous concerns and checkboxes that a skeptical audience introduces. Sure, your product might save hours a day for our team, but how does your compliance paperwork look? How stable are you? What contractual commitment will you make regarding customer support resolution? At this point, you’ll still be in an extremely competitive environment to retain the innovators and early majority, while also having to solve the long list of skeptic-driven requirements. Instead of hunting down solutions, the company–and the executive team–now has to solve everything, everywhere, all at once.

Going back to my colleague’s question, in early-stage hypergrowth, it would have absolutely been preferable to expand the existing leader’s scope. In late-stage hypergrowth, expanding their scope would have moved the problem, while reintroducing a previous problem, and that’s a losing strategy in that stage.

It’s been a while since the industry has talked a lot about hypergrowth, but a lot of the lessons of hypergrowth are relevant again as we see the productive chaos of the current AI-era, and this is absolutely one of them. In particular, it’s extremely clear that you can speedrun the early hypergrowth phase with a small, AI-empowered team, but it’s far from clear you can speedrun the late hypergrowth phase with the same approach. Personally, I suspect we will figure that out as an industry, but many of the challenges popping up recently in e.g. Anthropic’s messaging to Claude Code power users, feel to me like they’re rooted in the challenges of making this transition.

Even in the unlikely case that we never solve late-stage hypergrowth using the same AI-staffed mechanisms that support the early-stage case, it’s still an economic miracle, since it’ll allow a smaller amount of capital to culminate into relatively large and derisked companies, which should underpin substantial productivity for the economy.

★ The New York Times Printed the Wrong Crossword Grid Last Sunday, and I Find That Timing Serendipitous

The New York Times PR account, on Twitter/X a week ago:

Sunday’s crossword puzzle in the print edition of The New York Times Magazine contains a grid that does not match the clues. The correct version of the puzzle can be found in the news section of Sunday’s print edition of The Times. The puzzle on our app is correct.

Maggie Duffy, writing for Vulture:

Some solvers who, like Wegener’s wife, complete the Sunday puzzle in the print magazine (often with pen) complained on crossword forums and social media, saying they were “nearly in tears,” some with fears of “sudden onset dementia” or, worse yet, ineptitude.

For Irene Papoulis, a former writing instructor at Trinity College, the puzzle is typically a source of pride. “It didn’t even occur to me that it could be their mistake,” she told me. “I just blamed myself.” When Mike McFadden, in New Jersey, couldn’t crack it, he had a similar reaction. “I thought something was wrong with me,” he told me. “I didn’t think that they would have an error.” It nagged at him all day. At a function on Saturday, he couldn’t bring himself to mention it to his brother-in-law, a fellow solver; he was still too upset.

Some had such trust in the crossword that they believed the erroneous grid was purposeful. “I’m saying to myself, ‘Okay, maybe there’s some sort of scientific or mathematical trick,’” McFadden said. When I spoke with Will Shortz, the Times’ crossword editor, he said the Times does “so many tricks with the puzzles” that he could see how someone’s first thought would be “I wonder what they’re up to now?

This is the first such mistake the Times has made in the 84 years that they’ve been printing a crossword puzzle. I came of age doing work in print — writing and editing The Triangle, the student newspaper at Drexel, and then spending a few years as a working graphic designer, at a time when print still ruled. There’s an inherent stress about going to press. Mistakes are forever. We once ran a headline at The Triangle that read “Headline Goes Here”. Once. Going to press is stressful but exhilarating. There’s an adrenaline rush that comes with giving the go-ahead to start a very expensive large-scale full-color press run. The stress focuses the mind.

Print, effectively, is hardware. Atoms, not bits. The web is literally software. If you make a mistake in software that results in incorrect mathematical results, you ship an update. If you make a mistake in a CPU such that it results in incorrect floating-point math, perhaps only in 1 out of every 9 billion calculations, people will remember the mistake 30 years later.

If The New York Times had run the wrong crossword grid on the web or in their app, they would have corrected the error quickly, few people would have encountered it, and fewer still would remember it. But by printing the wrong grid in the Sunday magazine last week, they made a mistake that some people will never forget (and some will never forgive).

Hardware brain is different from software brain. Software brain says Go faster; do more; the only mistake you can’t fix is having gone too slow. Hardware brain says Slow down; do less; focus; strive for perfection and never settle for less than excellence; mistakes are forever.

If his background in hardware means that incoming Apple CEO John Ternus has hardware brain, and will lead Apple accordingly, that suggests Apple will double down on zigging in the midst of a still-escalating AI hype cycle that has the rest of the industry zagging ever more frenetically. That feels right to me.

Report Claims Samsung Might Post Its First-Ever Mobile Division Loss This Year, Blaming RAM Crisis

Ben Schoon, 9to5Google:

In March, a report revealed some of the internal cuts Samsung has been making for its mobile division, with the company initially concerned it could post an operating loss for the first time ever. It’s a big deal, as Samsung’s mobile (MX) division has historically always turned a profit.

A new report out of Korea (via Jukan) makes this seem all but certain.

Apparently, Samsung’s TM Roh, the head of the company’s mobile division, has expressed concerns of the “possibility of an annual deficit for the MX business unit.” Previously, those concerns came from speculation and outside parties, but with such a high figure in Samsung’s organization worried, it’s clear things are looking pretty bleak.

Back in 2013 analysts pegged the profit share of the handset industry at 70 percent for Apple and 30 percent for Samsung. A lot of other smaller companies sold a lot of other phones, but, so that analysis went, none of them made any profits. A lot of them were losing money. I linked to another such analysis in 2016 that pegged Apple’s share of phone profits at 104 percent, estimating that all other handset makers combined accounted for a 4% percent loss.

Doesn’t seem like much has changed since then. I prompted ChatGPT and Gemini today with this request: “Create a table of the world’s mobile device makers, ranked by profit and profit share of the industry.” ChatGPT pegs Apple’s profit share at 75–85%, Samsung’s at 10–20%, Huawei and Xiaomi in “low single digits”, and everyone else negligible. Gemini pegs Apple’s share at 85–90%, Samsung’s at 7–10%, Xiaomi at 1-2%, and everyone else negligible. This, despite both ChatGPT and Gemini agreeing that iPhones comprise only 20 percent of sales by unit. (Are ChatGPT and Gemini correct about the current profit share split of the mobile industry? I don’t know. But both cite sources in their answers, and it strikes me as very unlikely that their estimates are very far off.)

If Samsung posts a mobile division loss this year, it could be the case that Apple will capture 100 percent of the profits in the phone industry with just 20 percent of the sales.

 ★ 

When a shooting was a shooting ...

The attempted shooting of Gerald Ford, circa 1975

So, last night, someone allegedly tried shooting Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. There were cops and an arrest and reports and …

Plenty of people don’t believe it.

P-l-e-n-t-y of people.

I, for the record, am not one of them. To be honest, I’ve just never been much of a conspiracy theorist. I believe Kennedy was killed by Lee Harvey Oswald and James Earl Ray took out Martin Luther King. I think the Challenger exploded because of low temperatures and I do not buy that George W. Bush knew about 9.11 ahead of time. I don’t subscribe to spiders causing chicken pox, old milk inducing pregnancy or horses being able to read our thoughts. I have never seen a ghost or a spaceship. I wish my dad were on a cloud in heaven with Tupac, Carol Channing and Len Bias, but I don’t accept it as a real possibility.

That said …

Thanks to Donald Trump and the endless, ceaseless, merciless string of lies he and his goons spew upon the American populace, I do understand why so many look at events like last night and think, “Hmm.” I mean, here’s a president who cannot tell the truth and also cannot stand to be anything but worshiped and loved. Here’s a president whose approval ratings are sinking toward the v-e-r-y low 30s; a president stuck in a war he created and cannot leave. Here is a man born and raised and nurtured upon the art of stagecraft and angles. Fake gold. High platforms. Jets soaring above. Envelopes stuffed with blank pages. A created publicist named John Barron. Look over there! On and on. So is it that crazy to believe—desperate for some type of boost—he somehow cobbled together a bullshit “assassination attempt”?

I don’t buy it.

I don’t.

That said …

I’ve stopped believing anything this man says. And I don’t say that facetiously. I literally find myself buying nothing that leaves the lips of Trump, J.D. Vance, Karoline Leavitt and Co. Everything is the biggest. The grandest. The greatest. The war is over. And it’s not a war. And America is hotter than ever. And the ballroom is going to be amazing! Real marble! From Italy! At an unbelievable price! You’ll love it! We need it! Trump! Trump! Trump!

Weirdly, I’m still uncertain about Pennsylvania two years ago. I am. I can’t help it. It’s the first conspiracy I actually consider to be possible, primarily for one primary reason: Who is shot—via bullet—in the ear, and covers it with gauze for 48 hours? Who is shot—via bullet—in the ear, and has blood everywhere, but literally no scarring?

And I hate this about myself, and about America. I don’t want to be this person. I want to accept folks at their word. I want to believe in the decency of humanity. I want my president to be honest and forthright and at least somewhat tethered to truth.

Look, I believe there was a shooter last night in Washington.

I do.

But how does an attempted assassin simply entered the Washington Hilton armed with a 12-gauge shotgun, a .38 semi-automatic pistol and multiple knives?

How does this sort of thing happen?

Did it happen at all?

Sigh.

April 26, 2026

Today Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate of the Department of Justice Civil Division wrote to the lawyer for the National Trust for Historic Preservation demanding that the organization drop its lawsuit against Trump’s planned ballroom on the site where the East Wing of the White House used to be.

The letter claimed that there was “another attempt on President Trump’s life” last night at the Washington Hilton, where Secret Service agents apprehended a man carrying a shotgun, a handgun, and multiple knives on the floor above the room where the White House Correspondents dinner was taking place.

The man, whom police have identified as Cole Tomas Allen, 31, of California, sprinted through a magnetometer before authorities stopped him. Shots were fired, although it remains unclear who fired them. A Secret Service agent wearing a bulletproof vest was shot but has been released from the hospital. According to the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, Jeanine Pirro, the government is charging Cole with two counts of using a firearm and one count of assault on a federal officer using a dangerous weapon.

Shumate said last night’s incident “proves, yet again, that the White House ballroom is essential for the safety and security of the President, his family, his cabinet, and his staff. When the White House ballroom is complete, President Trump and his successors will no longer need to venture beyond the safety of the White House perimeter to attend large gatherings at the Washington Hilton ballroom. The White House ballroom will ensure the safety and security of the President for decades to come.”

“Put simply,” Shumate wrote, “your lawsuit puts the lives of the President, his family, and his staff at grave risk…. Enough is enough.” He demanded the National Trust for Historic Preservation “voluntarily dismiss this frivolous lawsuit today in light of last night’s assassination attempt on President Trump. If your client does not dismiss the lawsuit by 9:00 AM on Monday, the government will move to dissolve the injunction and dismiss the case in light of last night’s extraordinary events.”

This is an odd angle to take, since, as Bluesky user Tom Shafer pointed out, the Hilton ballroom seats 2,945 people and Trump says his proposed ballroom will seat only 999. And to be clear, a judge has permitted the construction of the secure facility under the ballroom to continue despite the lawsuit; it’s just the ballroom itself that’s currently at issue.

Attending the White House Correspondents’ Dinner is not an official requirement; this is actually the first time Trump has chosen to go as president. As Emily Davies, Isaac Arnsdorf, Jeremy Roebuck, and Joe Heim of the Washington Post reported today, the Trump administration could have provided a higher level of security last night as it has for other gatherings of high-ranking officials, but it did not designate the dinner as a “National Special Security Event.” Even so, Secret Service agents did indeed stop Cole before he could enter the ballroom.

Yesterday, David A. Fahrenthold, Luke Broadwater, and Andrea Fuller of the New York Times reported that the Trump administration has secretly awarded the company it chose to build the ballroom a no-bid $17.4 million contract to repair two ornamental fountains in Lafayette Park near the White House. In 2022 the Biden administration estimated the cost of the work to be $3.3 million. The journalists explain that the Trump administration dramatically increased the estimated cost by adding an additional 27% for inflation and then adding another inflation estimate of 24%, then increased its estimate by another 50% because it wanted to get the fountains fixed quickly, then simply gave the contract to Maryland-based Clark Construction.

While Trump claims the ballroom will be paid for by private donations, the government will pay for the fountain repairs. This means the contract should have been open for competitive bidding. To justify awarding the contract without that process, the journalists report, the administration cited an “urgency” exception to normal procedures meant for war or natural disasters.

The focus on last night’s event has obscured this upcoming week’s big story.

Trump has justified his refusal to seek congressional approval for his attack on Iran by claiming Iran posed an “imminent threat” to the U.S. While Trump’s own intelligence agencies contradicted that claim, it enabled Republicans to argue that Trump had authority to launch the strikes under the 1973 War Powers Act, which allows the president to act to counter an “imminent” threat.

But the War Powers Act says the president must notify Congress of any such action within 48 hours of its start. Then, by 60 days after that notification, the president has to stop using the military for that action unless the Congress either declares war or authorizes the use of the military for that specific action. Democrats have fought hard against Trump’s unilateral decision to go to war, but Republicans have refused to press him to get congressional approval, apparently hoping that Trump would find a way out of the Middle East crisis before hitting the 60-day mark.

But so far he has not, and the 60-day window closes on May 1.

Trump appears to believe the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will hurt the country so badly that Iranian leaders will have to agree to his demands. But that pressure will take time to build. “I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t,” he posted Thursday. He told reporters: “Don’t rush me. Don’t rush me…. So we were in Vietnam, like, for 18 years; we were in Iraq for many, many years.… I don’t like to say World War II, because that was a biggie, but we were four and a half, almost five years in World War II. And we were in the Korean war for seven years. I’ve been doing this for six weeks.”

If Trump doesn’t find an end to the conflict, Republicans must either vote to authorize what is already a deeply unpopular war or let Trump continue his war without congressional approval, adding fuel to accusations that he is becoming a dictator. After all, Trump claimed in January, after he had attacked Venezuela without congressional approval, that the War Powers Act is unconstitutional and would “take away our Powers to fight and defend the United States of America.”

The idea that the president can use the military as he wishes without authority from Congress demolishes one of the fundamental principles of our democracy: that we have a right to a say in how our lives and treasure are spent.

Rather than enabling Trump, Republicans could reassert the authority the Framers of the Constitution put in Congress’s hands and stop his deadly blundering.

“We’ve heard a lot of talk from Republicans that they’ll give this president 60 days,” the second-ranking Democrat in the House, Katherine Clark of Massachusetts, told Mike Lillis of The Hill. “And this is a failed effort. And it’s long past time that he come to Congress and explain what the strategy is and what the exit is. Republicans have been saying that is a crucial timeline for them. So put your vote up on the board.”

Notes:

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/26/us/white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooter-teacher-invs

https://www.kptv.com/2025/10/20/demolition-begins-east-wing-white-house-build-trumps-ballroom/

https://thevendry.com/venue/163550/washington-hilton-washington-dc/space/30057

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/judge-halts-construction-trumps-white-house-ballroom-allows-work-under-rcna332202

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/25/us/politics/lafayette-park-fountains-trump-contract.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/26/white-house-correspondents-dinner-security-status/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/18/politics/takeaways-intelligence-officials-worldwide-threats-war-iran

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/news/war-powers-resolution-1973

https://psc.uncg.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/War-Powers-Act.pdf

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5846206-democrats-iran-war-powers-votes/

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5843964-republicans-iran-war-trump-war-powers/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/25/politics/war-powers-act-trump-iran-war-congress-analysis

Donald Judd, “Trump declines to give a timeline on ending war with Iran: ‘Don’t rush me’” CNN, April 23, 2026.

https://www.npr.org/sections/the-picture-show/2026/04/26/g-s1-118806/photos-the-aftermath-of-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-says-he-doesnt-want-to-call-iran-conflict-a-war-because-of-need-for-congressional-approval/

Bluesky:

ericcolumbus.bsky.social/post/3mkgluoxj7k2g

tomshafshafer.bsky.social/post/3mkgp6ryos22r

ericmgarcia.bsky.social/post/3mbwlhaatfs2e

paleofuture.bsky.social/post/3mk6mysvtlk2w

atrupar.com/post/3mk6sobd3xh2t

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White House Correspondents' Dinner

Thumbs-up pictures in Taiwan, and kidney notes

 Photographers in Taiwan often ask their subjects to raise their thumbs (see all our thumbs below), just as American photographers ask for smiles.  One of the hosts in our recent visit suggested that this custom may have become solidified during Covid, when everyone wore masks, so that smiles couldn't be seen.

 


 

 I came away from Taiwan thinking that kidney exchange (which is now legal there) does not seem to be occurring with any regularity. This is a missed opportunity so far, since Taiwan has a very high incidence of kidney failure and dialysis. And (like everywhere else) there's a dire shortage of transplants: around 8500 people are on the waiting list, but the total annual number of transplants is below 500.

 But there's certainly hope for the future: as the I Ching says,* the universe progresses persistently:) 

 

*"Heaven keeps moving forward vigorously" (天行健, tiān xíng jiàn) is a foundational tenet from the I Ching (Book of Changes), specifically the Daxiang Zhuan (Commentary on the Images) regarding the Qian (Creative) hexagram. It signifies that the universe is robust and unceasing in its operation, urging humans to model this by constantly striving for self-improvement and diligence"


 (A friend, seeing this photo, says "Whoa, super deep life lessons, and yummy snacks in the background...)

Dwarkesh!

It’s been great to see Dwarkesh Patel rise to the top ranks of podcasters. The profile in the NYTimes is excellent. Dwarkesh’s success is his own but I couldn’t help but smile at the early, wacky GMU influences—all of which I can attest are true:

Mr. Patel recorded the first episode of “The Lunar Society,” his original name for the podcast, from his dorm room at the University of Texas at Austin in 2020, during the early months of the Covid pandemic, when he was 19. He was taking online classes, bored, and thirsty for intellectual engagement. So he did what any normal college sophomore might do and cold-emailed Bryan Caplan, a member of George Mason University’s famously libertarian economics department. In the email, he described how three Caplan books had shifted his perspective on immigration, education and how many children to have. Mr. Caplan responded encouragingly, and after a further friendly exchange, Mr. Patel asked if he could interview him for a podcast. Mr. Caplan was impressed with the result. “He wasn’t just repeating 10 questions from everyone else. He had his own close-reading questions.”

Mr. Caplan and his sons happened to spend a couple of months that summer in Austin, staying at the home of Steve Kuhn, the billionaire ex-hedge fund manager. Mr. Patel had lunch with Mr. Caplan nearly every day, and joined him at Mr. Kuhn’s house for pickleball (Mr. Kuhn founded Major League Pickleball), intellectual salons and role-playing games, including the Mr. Caplan-written “Badger and Skinny Pete,” based on two “Breaking Bad” characters.

Mr. Kuhn offered to invest in the podcast in return for equity. “Even at that age,” Mr. Kuhn says, “he in some ways commanded the room in ways not many people do.”

…Early on, when all Mr. Patel had to show for himself was a couple of blog posts and one podcast episode featuring Mr. Caplan, Anil Varanasi, co-founder of Meter, a network-infrastructure company in San Francisco, reached out and asked how much Mr. Patel would need to keep doing what he was doing for six months. (Mr. Varanasi, a former student of Mr. Caplan’s, has made similar overtures to other promising young people.) Not much, said Mr. Patel, who was then living with his parents in Austin. Mr. Varanasi sent him $10,000. Mr. Caplan opened the door to other interviews, including Tyler Cowen and other George Mason economists. Mr. Cowen, through his Emergent Ventures program, himself later gave Mr. Patel a grant.

The rest as they say is history.

The post Dwarkesh! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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From MR commentator Sure:

Generally such figures do not reside within the physicians’ office. On our side of the table we do some procedure with multiple specifications and generate some CPT code(s) (e.g. a lap cholycystectomy is 47562, add on a common bile duct exploration and it becomes a 47564, and if you just do cholangiography it becomes a 47563). Generally, we couple that with an ICD-10 code that specifies your exact disease (K80 for simple stones, K81 for cholecystitis, etc.). We then dump those codes into a computer.

Can either of those change? Absolutely, we find a bunch of friable neovasculature around the gallbladder, congrats you likely have cancer which means this surgery is now both a different CPT code and a different ICD-10 set. Maybe only one does – we find the gallbladder lacks an obstructing stone, but does have transmural inflammation then you get a new ICD-10 code. If we find that you actually have multiple obstructing stones and we need to go deeper into the biliary tree, then those are different CPTs.

Regardless, we do what is medically indicated, document the codes used.

At this point, unless your physician keeps billing fully in house, those get handled by a processer. Often, bills from multiple providers get handled by one processor who in turn gives insurance companies bills to their specifications. Often this involves a bunch things – where was the surgery done (through very complicated rules, critical access hospitals, for example, can charge more for the same surgery because the government wants to keep them solvent lest a bunch of people lose their local emergency room and OR), who was doing it (e.g. there is a different rate if you have medical trainees involved), and of course stuff about you (e.g. complex patients get reimbursed at higher rates with the expectation that, on average, the higher rates cover higher complication rates and insurance doesn’t incentvize surgeons to make all their complex patients drive for hours and hours). Then we get to the big buys – buyers. For Medicare, there are some committees that appear to be overwhelmingly ignorant of actual medical practice but they set baseline reimbursements for these CPT/ICD-10 combos. Those then get adjusted to account for regional costs, equity concerns, and only God knows what all else. These are normally set near the break even point on national average. Medicaid, typically, uses those rates as a baseline and then cuts them (hence why many physicians won’t take new Medicaid patients, the reimbursement rates often leave folks at a net loss). Private insurers add another layer of negotiation where they use their monopsony power to extract lower rates while, allegedly, assuring physicians of volume. The range of these negotiations can be exceedingly wide – insurers can have modifiers for quality of care (e.g. how many folks come back in the perioperative period), timeliness of care, and so on and so forth.

Okay, so somebody has haggled set a rate and we just assume that get the bog standard lap chole we have a price?

Of course not.

See that is just what has agreed, in theory, these medical services will be reimbursed at. Actual reimbursement involves a non-negligable risk on non-payment (e.g. insurance denies and the patient cannot or will not pay), delayed payment (and having to utilize credit lines to cover payroll when a large insurer has an IT glitch and doesn’t pay for two weeks is quite expensive), and of course variable legal and compliance costs. You might also be hit with clawbacks, partial payments, and a host of other payment uncertainty.

Okay, but’s lest assume a single CPT/ICD-10 setup, a prenegotiated rate that is paid on time without further processing costs, and everything is chill there. We got a price yet?

Of course not.

See all of the above is for just the surgeon’s professional fees – i.e. what is being paid for use of his hands. The OR itself? That’s a completely different bucket of money that has its own set of billing and negotiations. Facility fees make the professional fees look straight forward and simple.

But we are done now? Right?

Of course not.

See those were the professional fees for your surgeon. You also need an anesthesiologist (and/or his minions). And guess what, yep completely different bucket of money and price negotiation.

But we are done now?

Well, no. There may be different negotiations for lab fees (e.g. where does the CBC get billed), for tissue pathology, for any post-operative hospital services, and of course medications (which are billed completely differently if outpatient or inpatient) to name a few of the more common options.

There isn’t “a” price for a surgery. There are, potentially, a dozen diferent prices that can be combined in a multitude of ways with some buckets covered by one payer and other parts covered by another (and things get crazy fun when you have overlapping payers).

But aren’t there cash only surgical places with listed prices? Yes. And they have an extremely limited set of procedures with everything owned in house – i.e. a setup that is pretty much illegal to set up de novo post Obamacare.

Why does everyone have all these bizarre negotations. Why don’t you just pay the surgeon everything and then he pays the hospital, the anesthesiologist, the pathologist, etc. from that cut? Because that is an invitation for your surgeon to be charged with a crime. It is federal crime to underbill or to underbill when it comes to government monies (and in many states, private insurance monies). We are required not just to I Pencil up a price, but to make that price transparent to regulators. If a hospital wants to grant me cheaper OR time because I have reliable stream of patients, keep the OR cleaner (reducing turnaround time enough to fit another case per day in), and don’t create ancillary malpractice risk at the going rate … the hospital risks being tagged with inducement. If I negotiate a cheaper rate with the lab for my patients’ tests, it is considered prima facie evidence for kickbacks and I then have a positive burden to prove that I am not getting clandestine remuneration from the lab.

Separate, disjointed, billing through bureaucratic negotiation is legible. It is legible to the courts, to regulators, and to malpractice insurers.

But doesn’t all this massive change efficiency of care delivery?
Not that I can easily see. I have personal experience with IHS, TriCare, Kaiser, the VA, and for-profit, non-profit, and even prison care; full Beveridge like IHS is often the least efficient.

So where do cash prices come from? Outside of cash only practices, those are overwhelmingly fictions that somebody pulled out of their nether regions in a likely futile attempt to BS the counterparty to an insurance negotiation.

Why is this all so complicated:
1. Principle agent. The patient has a wildly different incentive structure than the collective payer (insurance or government) and American healthcare is insanely deferential to the patient compared to alternatives. The folks with the most direct control feel at most a small fraction of the price pain have near zero incentive to economize for anything big.
2. Taxes. The original sin of American healthcare was making insurance, rather than medical procedures themselves, tax deductible. This creates very strong incentives for people to bundle non-healthcare into insurance premiums in hard to define manners (e.g. is a health insurer offering a rebate for gym membership incentivizing exercise, allowing folks who would already have gym memberships to pay pre-tax, or just selecting for healthier patients).
3. People are terrified of physician abuse. Most folks, even other physicians, have a very hard time knowing if their physician is taking them for a ride. So they turn to something powerful to regulate physicians. But, not knowing what actually matters, these folks find it extremely hard to navigate market transactions. Healthcare would far rather have 100 unattributable deaths and 2x costs than to have 1 attributable death that regulation could avoid.
4. A complete disconnect between what folks experience for prices (e.g. my tape easily costs 10x more than department store specials, my EMR internal word processor is an order of magnitude more expensive than MSWord let alone Emacs or the like) and how medical expenses run.
5. A failure to appreciate the costs of having things on standby. We have folks ready incase a simple IR procedure perfs the vessel walls. We have countless folks handy in case your infusion leads to anaphylaxis. Or your blood transfusion moves on to TRALI. Just opening the doors typically means that we need to have a few dozen physicians and their support staff available at all times. I’ve seen a simple gallbladder turn into a massive transfusion with staging, SICU, and the whole works. I have seen STD treatment turn into a catastrophic emergency of the sort that gets Derm to come in at oh ass hundred.

None of those go away if we post prices. And a lot of people will be upset – somebody will decry us pricing differently for different patients – everyone deserves the same care at the same cost. Somebody will decry us for not pricing differently enough – people should be reward for making good decisions.

Long run, healthcare is going to get more expensive. I expect it will eventually be on part with mortgage payments (you know you live in your body 24/7). But there is an evergreen fantasy that … if only … then we could reduce prices.

You can’t. You can, maybe, make them rise more slowly, normally for harsh tradeoffs Americans won’t stand. And just about every significant intervention that really moves the price needle … is either selection (e.g. health share ministries have wildly healthier populations because they are heavily selected about drugs, promiscuity, and the rest) or given entirely back by the patient dying later. And the handful of things to do pass muster (e.g. HPV vaccination, Hep C treatment) … it becomes yet another morass of how much to pay whom.

Healthcare is not a normal market. We should stop pretending it could be one.

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China launches PRSC-EO3 for Pakistan, lofts internet test and environment monitoring satellites

A white Long March 2D rocket climbs into a hazy sky above the forested hills surrounding Xichang spaceport, propelled by hypergolic exhaust exhibiting mach shock diamonds.

China took its total launches this year to 26 over the weekend, with a trio of flights of legacy and newer Long March rocket models.

The post China launches PRSC-EO3 for Pakistan, lofts internet test and environment monitoring satellites appeared first on SpaceNews.

The sunset shines on the ELT

Today's Picture of the Week shows ESO's Extremely Large Telescope (ELT), glowing in the sunset light of the Chilean Atacama Desert and surrounded by massive cranes hard at work to get this telescope up and running. As of April 2026, when this image was taken, the ELT is over 70% complete.

This soon-to-be telescope is located at the top of Cerro Armazones, the mountain that casts a triangular shadow in the background of this drone image. At 3046 metres above sea level, and with very dry conditions, the ELT is in the perfect location for astronomical observations under one of the most pristine skies on Earth. Its dome, planned to be fully completed in 2027, protects the telescope and its sensitive components from the extreme desert environment, and from the Sun during daytime. At night, its two massive sliding doors will open to allow the telescope to observe the night sky, while still protecting it from the wind.

Inside the dome, the construction of the main structure of what will be the world's largest optical and near-infrared telescope is very advanced. With the first light planned for the end of the decade, the ELT and its groundbreaking 39-metre main mirror will take on some of the biggest challenges in astronomy and, ultimately, help us understand our place in the Universe.

Link 

Snow Is Scarce in the Upper Colorado Basin

A map depicts below-average snow water equivalent amounts in most mountainous areas of the Upper Colorado Basin.
The state of Upper Colorado Basin’s snowpack on March 15, 2026, is displayed relative to the 2001-2025 average for that date.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison, with data from Mountain Hydrology Group, University of Colorado, Boulder

The through line for the western United States so far in the 2026 water year is simple: there’s very little snow. With few exceptions, the mountains of the U.S. West have seen unusually little snow accumulation since October 2025, constituting a widespread snow drought. The lack of mountain snowpack has resource managers on alert going into the warmer months. Meager meltwater can affect hydropower production, agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, and wildland fire risk.

The Upper Colorado Basin was exceptionally dry in spring 2026. This map illustrates the state of its snowpack on March 15, depicting estimates of snow water equivalent as a percentage of the 2001-2025 average. Snow water equivalent (SWE) is a measure of how much water there would be if all the snow in a given area melted at once. SWE peaked for the season around March 15 at below-average values for the time of year in most watersheds. Note that values below 8,000 feet (2,400 meters) in elevation are not shown, as snow at lower elevations often melts quickly and is therefore not representative of overall snowpack health.

To derive these estimates, researchers at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) combined data from instruments on NASA’s AquaTerra, and Landsat satellites, ground-based snow sensors, and a data assimilation model called the Land Information System. The group provides regular, near-real-time snowpack reports to water managers, government agencies, tribes, and other stakeholders in Colorado, California, and other western states throughout each melt season. 

The snowpack in spring 2026 was notable not only for its low level but also for its early peak. In the Upper Colorado Basin, SWE peaks on April 6, on average, according to data published by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service. In 2026, the peak occurred about four weeks early. Similarly, SWE topped out much earlier than normal across all western states, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) reported.

Extreme heat contributed to the shift. In the second half of March, an intense heatwave gripped the southwestern U.S., toppling many high-temperature records. “This heatwave is the big snow story of the year,” said Noah Molotch, mountain hydrologist at INSTAAR and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The Colorado Basin experienced its warmest March on record, according to NIDIS, with temperatures 13.7 degrees Fahrenheit (7.6 degrees Celsius) above normal. Snow water equivalent in the basin plunged through the end of the month.

A line graph shows that snow cover area in the western U.S. was the lowest on record much of the time from October 2025 through mid-April 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison, with data from NSIDC Snow Today

Snow cover across the West (above) dropped noticeably during the late-March heatwave. The melting helped cement March 2026 as the lowest March snow cover in the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) record dating back to 2001. January and February 2026 also had the lowest snow cover for those respective months in the MODIS record, despite widespread snowstorms in the third week of February. The snow cover data is produced by Snow Today, a NASA-funded project of INSTAAR and the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Snow albedo, another metric tracked via satellite, helps tell the story of this winter’s snow drought as well, said Karl Rittger, research associate at INSTAAR and lead scientist at Snow Today. Albedo, or surface brightness, was at average levels for only limited periods during the winter and was otherwise low, Snow Today’s analysis showed, leading to more energy absorption in the snowpack and accelerated melting. Albedo also plunged during the March heatwave.

Storms can “refresh” or brighten the snow, but if they are infrequent, snow grains grow larger and darker, and dust and debris accumulate on the surface. “Storms since the heatwave brought albedo levels back to highs not seen since early March, buffering Colorado’s snowpack temporarily, but not fundamentally changing the outlook,” Rittger said.

The most pronounced effects of the snow drought are expected in areas experiencing consecutive years of drought or snow drought, the NIDIS noted. This includes the Rio Grande and the Pacific Northwest—where a statewide drought was declared in Washington—as well as the Upper Colorado.

Lake Powell, fed by the rivers of the Upper Colorado Basin and impounded by the Glen Canyon Dam in northern Arizona, has dropped to near-historic low levels and was 24 percent full as of April 19, 2026. The Bureau of Reclamation, which manages the dam, projects that the lake could fall below the minimum level needed to produce power by August 2026 “without major intervention,” according to an April 17 news release. The agency said it is considering mitigation strategies, including releasing water from an upstream reservoir and reducing releases from Lake Powell.

NASA Earth Observatory map and chart by Michala Garrison, using data courtesy of L. Lestak, E. Tyrrell, N. Molotch/ Mountain Hydrology Group, University of Colorado, Boulder, and snow cover area data courtesy of K. Rittger/NSIDC Snow Today. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

You may also be interested in:

Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

The West Faces Snow Drought
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Snow Buries the U.S. Interior and East
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The post Snow Is Scarce in the Upper Colorado Basin appeared first on NASA Science.

SpaceX scrubs Falcon Heavy launch of final ViaSat-3 satellite due to poor weather

SpaceX scrubbed the launch of its Falcon Heavy rocket on Monday, April 27, in the final minute due to poor weather in the area. Image: SpaceX via livestream

Update April 27, 10:48 a.m. EDT (1448 UTC): SpaceX scrubbed the mission due to poor weather.

SpaceX stood down from launching its first Falcon Heavy rocket in more than a year and a half due to poor weather on Monday, April 27. A new launch date hasn’t been announced yet, possibly as the Eastern Range is considering the timing of unloading the core stage of NASA’s Space Launch System rocket from the agency’s Pegasus barge.

When it happens, the flight of the triple booster rocket from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center will feature the landing of the two side boosters at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

The mission will send the ViaSat-3 Flight 3 communications satellite to a geosynchronous transfer orbit. The six-metric-ton satellite is set to deploy from the rocket’s upper stage nearly five hours after leaving the pad.

“It’s kind of the end of an era. We’ve been working this program for over 10 years now. So that’s a good chunk of life that’s gone by over the course of the program,” said Dave Abrahamian, Viasat’s vice president of Satellite Systems.

“It’s a different world now than when we started the program. Back then, we had a handful of satellites in orbit. Since then, we’ve launched the two ViaSat-3s, we merged with Inmarsat, we’ve got the third one (ViaSat-3) ready to go now. So totally different world, different feeling, and its pretty cool to have been part of it all.”

Liftoff from Launch Complex 39A was scheduled for 10:21 a.m. EDT (1421 UTC), the opening of an 85-minute window. It’s unclear when SpaceX will try to launch again. When it launches, the Falcon Heavy rocket will fly on an easterly trajectory.

The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 70 percent chance for favorable weather during Monday’s launch window. Meteorologists said they were watching for violations of the cumulus cloud and the surface electric fields rules.

“A Carolina Low is expected to push a weak back door cold front through central Florida early Monday morning,” launch weather officers wrote in their forecast. “With the primary window opening around the time the sea breeze will develop, the position of that frontal boundary will determine if clouds are enhanced over the Spaceport.”

The three boosters SpaceX will fly on the mission are a combination of old, new, and brand new. The two side boosters, tail numbers 1072 and 1075, will be flying for a second and 22nd time respectively.

Those will separate from the center core, tail number B1098, and target landings at Landing Zone 2 (LZ-2) and Landing Zone 40 (LZ-40). The latter of the two is adjacent to Space Launch Complex 40 and is to the north of LZ-2.

SpaceX will not attempt to recover B1098 and it will be expended into the Atlantic Ocean, concluding its first and only flight.

SpaceX’s design for the ViaSat-3 F3 mission patch. Graphic: SpaceX

Flying Falcon Heavy

The launch of the ViaSat-3 F3 mission marks the 12th flight of a Falcon Heavy rocket, which made its debut in 2018. Two of those missions carried ViaSat-3 satellites onboard.

Abrahamian noted that the time for on-orbit commissioning will be shorter than that of the Viasat-3 F2 satellite which flew on a United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 rocket. He said orbit raising to the operating position at the 158.55 degrees East position along the equator will take about two months.

“Falcon Heavy is a more powerful vehicle than Atlas 5 was, so they can put us in a more favorable transfer orbit for the electric propulsion,” Abrahamian said. “So they’re going to drop us off in an orbit, hopefully, that is just below [geostationary Earth orbit] apogee-wise, about 23,000 kilometers perigee-wise, and only about three degrees of inclination. So, it’s a very [electric propulsion]-friendly orbit.”

He said it will take at least a couple of months after that to go through the various deployment stages on the satellite and conduct checkouts before the satellite manufacturer, Boeing, hands the vehicle over to Viasat for operational use.

ViaSat-3 F2, which flew on Atlas 5 in November 2025, is still completing its on orbit checkout and is slated to begin operational service in the near future. We asked Abrahamian if he saw any challenges or key differences between the work to vertically integrate Viasat’s payload versus horizontal integration, since his company has done both.

“If you had asked me that before F2 happened and before all the weather challenges with stacking F2 I would have said no. But now, having been through that and doing this, there’s certainly much more flexibility in not having as many constraints on you when you’re doing horizontal integration,” Abrahamian said. “It presents its own set of challenges when you have to roll out to the pad, align very carefully, to pad infrastructure and then go vertical. So that’s a challenge that Atlas doesn’t have. Each system seems to work for each provider.”

The SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket supporting the ViaSat-3 F3 mission lies in the horizontal position at Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Adding capacity

This third and final satellite in the ViaSat-3 constellation will target its area of coverage over the Asia-Pacific region and is intended to add more than one Terabit per second (Tbps) of capacity to the overall Viasat network.

“We have a number of airline customers in the APAC region that are really anxious to get this capacity online so they can start serving their customers better,” Abrahamian said. “Two of the hallmarks of the ViaSat-3 constellation are a huge amount of just absolute capacity, but also the flexibility to put it wherever you need it, whenever you need it.

“So it’s not like a traditional satellite, like a ViaSat-1, or Ka sat, or most of the Inmarsat fleet, where you’ve got a single feed per beam, beam locations are fixed, spectrum allocations are fixed and you might overload one beam over here and another beam doesn’t have anybody in it and you can’t move that capacity.”

Abrahamian said the advantage of these newer satellites is their overall flexibility.

“ViaSat-3 because we’re using a phased array technology and our antennas onboard, we can form a beam wherever we need it,” he said. “We can allocate spectrum to it as we need it. We can put multiple beams in an area as needed. So we really don’t have the issue of trapped capacity here. So it’s a matter of following the demand wherever it is, within that spacecraft’s field of view.”

The ViaSat-3 Flight 3 satellite is seen inside Boeing’s test facilities in El Segundo, CA. Image: Boeing

Movie Theaters Are Coming Back (for the Saddest Reason)

What’s killing movie theaters? Pretty much everything.

COVID started the process. But after the pandemic, Netflix did more damage than any virus—the company’s CEO told the world that cinemas are outdated. Who needs a multiplex, when you’ve got a tiny home screen and a lumpy couch?

It didn’t help that Disney and Paramount also decided to bypass theaters and stream directly to home screens. Add in Apple, Amazon, HBO, and all those other cinema-killers—and now you’ve got more suspects and weapons than a game of Clue.

The results have been devastating. Between 2019 and 2025, movie ticket sales dropped from 1.24 billion to 780 million—a bloodcurdling decline of 38%. I can practically hear Professor Plum screaming from the billiard room.

But things will now change. Movie theaters are coming back.

And for the least likely of reasons.


Please support my work by taking out a premium subscription (just $6 per month—or less).

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For years, people like me have been begging Hollywood to support theatrical distribution. We had persuasive reasons:

  • Showing films in theaters is good for audiences, because it’s the best possible way of experiencing cinema.

  • Showing films in theaters is good for filmmakers, because it amplifies the artistry and grandeur of the idiom.

  • Showing films in theaters is good for communities, because it supports the local creative ecosystem and provides jobs in the neighborhood.

But I now anticipate a huge increase in theater ticket sales over the next 18 months, and it will be for none of those reasons.

Read more

Sunday 26 April 1663

(Lord’s-day). Lay pretty long in bed talking with my wife, and then up and set to the making up of my monthly accounts, but Tom coming, with whom I was angry for botching my camlott coat, to tell me that my father and he would dine with me, and that my father was at our church, I got me ready and had a very good sermon of a country minister upon “How blessed a thing it is for brethren to live together in unity!” So home and all to dinner, and then would have gone by coach to have seen my Lord Sandwich at Chelsey if the man would have taken us, but he denying it we staid at home, and I all the afternoon upon my accounts, and find myself worth full 700l., for which I bless God, it being the most I was ever yet worth in money.

In the evening (my father being gone to my brother’s to lie to-night) my wife, Ashwell, and the boy and I, and the dogg, over the water and walked to Half-way house, and beyond into the fields, gathering of cowslipps, and so to Half-way house, with some cold lamb we carried with us, and there supped, and had a most pleasant walk back again, Ashwell all along telling us some parts of their mask at Chelsey School, which was very pretty, and I find she hath a most prodigious memory, remembering so much of things acted six or seven years ago.

So home, and after reading my vows, being sleepy, without prayers to bed, for which God forgive me!

Read the annotations

Mushroom facts of the day

You would be surprised to learn that almost 69% of the US mushroom production occurs in the borough of Kennett Square, Pennsylvania. It is a small town of about 6000 people, but mushroom-growing facilities around town produce almost 451 million pounds of mushrooms annually (2024). 451 million pounds of mushrooms would occupy about 45 American football fields or 35 soccer fields. The dollar value of mushroom production in the US is roughly $ 1 billion per year.

China is the undisputed leader in mushroom production. China accounts for 93% of the world’s global mushroom production.

That is from Rhishi Pethe, here is the full story, via Anecdotal.  Much of the piece is about why mushroom production is switching to Canada.

The post Mushroom facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Links 4/26/26

Links for you. Science:

NIH FY2025 funding data finally emerges on RePORT
Rigid Gender Roles Are a Lie. Just Ask These 7,000-Year-Old Skeletons.
Mumps infections reveal that vaccine-preventable illnesses are resurging in the U.S.
Why Are People Injecting Themselves with Peptides?
New rules for CDC vaccine panel aim to address lawsuit, empower Kennedy’s allies
I discovered three new geckos in Cambodia’s limestone caves – and that’s not all we found
One Drug Wins and Another Fails for Long COVID Fatigue — A previous trial of the two drugs showed the opposite effect for reducing the risk of long COVID
‘Jaw-dropping’ fossils reset the clock on when complex animals evolved. A treasure trove of fossils from China shows that the Cambrian explosion may have been less explosive than scientists once believed

Other:

We need to talk about Donald Trump’s mental health. The increasingly incoherent and volatile president is much easier to understand if we come to terms with one thing
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate (the NYT, a decade late to the party)
The Death of Book World and Why Criticism Still Matters
Cloud Control: Anthropic’s defiance of Trump and the new frontier of corporate governance
The Far-Right Cash Machine: There’s money in bigotry, and specialized crowdfunding platforms are where to get it.
DC leads the nation in first-year business failures (the business rents are too damn high)
The Banality of MAGA-fication: A new book by an unremarkable Republican accidentally illuminates the devolution of the party.
Trump’s Wreckage of Social Security and Medicare
Hungary Just Ousted the Unoustable
Mayor’s budget seeks to grow DC, but includes $469M in cuts
Screens aren’t destroying young minds. I should know.
A closer look at DDOT’s plan to fill those pesky potholes this spring
Another round of layoffs hits Kennedy Center ahead of two-year closure
Minnesota authorities investigate arrest by ICE of a Hmong American man as a possible kidnapping
The world’s worst dealmaker screws up the Iran negotiations
Illiberalism Is Not Inevitable
Where Did All the Affordable Cars Go?
The Internet’s Most Powerful Archiving Tool Is in Peril. As major news outlets cut off the Wayback Machine, journalists and advocacy groups are rallying to protect the Internet Archive’s vast collection of web pages.
Chromebook Remorse: Tech Backlash at Schools Extends Beyond Phones
New disclosures reveal how DOGE actually worked
What Orban’s Defeat Means for the Rest of the World
Oh No He’s Lost Peter Baker
For Kushner and Witkoff, C.E.O. Diplomacy Is No Longer Working
Gen Z women don’t long to be tradwives
Coachella performers are funding the MAGA movement
A Humiliating Defeat: Trump’s policies are a disaster for America. His illegal, unnecessary war has left us weaker and Iran stronger. Controlling the Strait is better than a nuclear bomb.
Parrot goes on underwater adventure in his custom-built submarine
Orbán’s Hungary drove a top university campus into exile. JD Vance said it should be a model for the U.S.
This university’s ‘intellectual freedom’ center creates the problem it claims to solve
Idaho Is Ground Zero of Republicans’ Escalating War on Trans People

w/e 2026-04-26

After last week’s “Onward to next week. Nothing can go wrong, nothing.” how did I do?

The week didn’t start great but generally, another good one.

(Let’s take it as read that I will largely continue to ignore the wider world in these solipsistic weeeknotes right up until the point at which it comes hammering on the doors of me and my loved ones. A stance that would get me pilloried by the righteous strikeforces of Bluesky. But we’re not there, we’re here, and lacing every one of my “What I did this week” accounts with outraged eye-rolling about sigh everything will never change the world. So…)

Having cleaned the coffee grinder last Sunday, on Monday morning I turned it on to silence. Dead. Having failed to find any useful help on Baratza’s quite bad site, I emailed them, they sent me a link to an article describing how to take it all apart, I found that the “interlock switch” had come loose, and after re-seating it on its little plastic blobs, everything worked. One-nil to me.

Confident, I decided to investigate our inherited Kärcher pressure washer, which leaks a lot of water from somewhere inside whenever it’s used. Eventually I found that it seemed to be coming from a white plastic part that links to the water and the electrics, would require dismantling the entire innards to replace, and costs over £50. Deciding this was not worth it, I then tripped over the power cable, the washer fell over, and the on-off knob snapped off this already-cracked part. So now it won’t even turn on. It’s now optimistically on Facebook Marketplace for a tenner. One-all.


§ I’m continually trying to catch up with reading editions of The Wire. I’m totally going to do it soon. Even though I’m only skimming a lot of it these days, especially the reviews, I hope to find at least one new album from each issue that I like enough to buy. Two this week.

First My Hair Is Everywhere by Klinck Trio. Slow and sparse, just piano, violin and saxophone feeling their way.

And then Swimming in the Early Hours by Emergence Collective, from Sheffield. Improvised, it reminds me at different times of Penguin Cafe Orchestra, Michael Nyman, and Philip Glass (which is kind of showing the paucity of my references for this kind of thing).


§ It’s very easy to take not working for granted, especially when feeling down or stressed, and the days slip by unloved and unappreciated.

But the past couple of weeks, probably helped by the warm summery weather, I’ve felt so fortunate. I’m getting lots of things done, only frustrated that I’m not getting enough done. So much to do I spent much of the afternoons this week wrangling those PDFs.

I’ve also started work on project Renovate Pond. We have a pond that’s lined with concrete that has cracked. We’ve tried repairing it twice with Pond Putty but it’s failed again. The easy thing to do would be to cover it with a liner. But its current shape, a smooth bowl, makes it hard to plant anything in there, and it could be a little deeper.

So muggins here has decided to break up the concrete, dig out the hole a bit and then line it. I also decided that using a sledgehammer and a crowbar would be less traumatising than hiring a pneumatic drill which would involve both, well, using a pneumatic drill, but also having to talk to Real Men at a Real Men’s Tool Hire Place.

I’ve had three short stints of bashing so far and it’s very hard work and I haven’t got very far. We’ll see who ends up as nothing but a shattered and worthless pile of broken parts first, the pond or me.

A photo of a sort of oval, empty concrete pond surrounded by grass. The middle of the pond has a small pile of broken concrete on it. The right-hand edge is broken concrete and rubble. There's an awful lot still to go.

§ Five months ago I planted yellow rattle seeds on a 10×10m section of our lawn. Every so often I’ve been wandering around looking at the grass wondering if I planted them too late, or the birds ate them all, or if it’s just too early. This week I finally noticed some unfamiliar shoots and, yes, it’s the yellow rattle plants coming up!

I tried to take a photo but just end up with some small, blurry, pointy green leaves among a lot of other small blurry green leaves so they’re not much to look at yet.


§ We finished the second season of Paradise which continues to be nonsense, only now with several different narrative strands going on at once, all of them varying degrees of nonsense. Jumping from one set of characters to another made it all feel pretty slow early on, and unavoidably a bit derivative of The Last of Us (without any infected). But, you know, still watchably daft.


§ We also watched three behind-the-scenes films about The Detectorists, one for each season, which we hadn’t come across before. All of them were lovely, full of lovely people having a lovely time making a lovely show. Seasons one, two and three.


§ Probably no weeknotes next week. Hope you have a good one. Or two.


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Slightly laboriously

This week I finished the final little bit (80%) of making PDFs of my mum’s local history books and booklets. It was inevitably more complicated and confusing than I expected so I’m describing what I did in case it helps anyone do something similar, better, in the future.

I’m doing all this using macOS.

Scanning inner pages

I had extra copies of all the books so was able to cut all the pages out, slightly laboriously, using a scalpel and ruler. I could then feed all the inner pages through my ScanSnap s1300i, which I bought years ago after reading Getting Things Done – it’s an extremely useful luxury.

This scanner can only take 10 sheets at a time which made scanning a 300-page (150-sheet) book a bit more work than with a bigger scanner. But still pretty quick. I wouldn’t have contemplated this project if I’d only had a flatbed scanner.

I scanned all the pages to black-and-white PDFs using “Better” quality, black-and-white being the smallest MB-wise. I opened the first PDF file in Preview, opened the thumbnail draw, and dragged each subsequent PDF to the bottom of the thumbnails.

I then realised that some of the pages in some of the books included illustrations, maps, and graphs that used shades of grey, and the black-and-white scanning had, obviously, rendered them as purely black-and-white, which looked pretty bad.

So I re-scanned all the pages using greyscale. Doing all of them was quicker and simpler than working out exactly which pages needed re-doing.

Of course, the greyscale scanning results in larger files. So I opened the complete black-and-white PDF in Preview then, one-by-one, each of the greyscale PDFs. I dragged the thumbnails of any pages that used grey from its greyscale PDF to the black-and-white PDF, deleting the equivalent page from the latter.

The text on the greyscale pages was slightly greyer than the very black text in the black-and-white pages, but overall this seemed the best compromise between file size and using the greyscale for the pages which needed it.

Scanning covers

The paper/card of the covers were all too thick to go through the ScanSnap so I scanned them using my even older Epson flatbed scanner. More time consuming. I could have tried scanning them straight to PDF but I didn’t think of that and I’m not sure how well it would have worked.

Instead I scanned them to 300dpi TIFFs, then opened them in my usual image-editing software, Acorn, in which I touched up any blemishes. I then saved them as JPGs or PNGs, depending on what the image was like and what ended up smaller with decent quality, after fiddling with JPG compression and PNG colour indexing.

But I needed these to be PDFs. So I opened the image files in Preview and exported them as PDFs.

However, I did not use the File > Export as PDF… option because that results in a small version of the image in a sea of white background. Maybe this depends on some setting and/or the size/dpi of the image? I don’t know.

So instead I did File > Export… and chose the “PDF” Format.

However, again, I did not use the “Reduce File Size” Quartz Filter because, when I tried it, it resulted in a larger file size than without it. Having tried it with a different image just now, it did in fact reduce the file size so I don’t know what that depends on. Worth a try.

Because I ended up with quite a large PDF (e.g. a 600 KB JPG turning into a 3.8 MB PDF) I tried running it through online PDF compression tools: ILovePDF and PDF2Go. It takes some trial and error, and there’s not much control. I often wanted something in between “really small but extremely full of compression artifacts” and “only slightly smaller with a practically identical image”.

Eventually I’d settle on a suitable version, which I determined as “looks OK” and doesn’t feel too large given the current size of the black-and-white/greyscale PDF I’m about to add it to.

So I’d drag the PDF into the existing master PDF of black-and-white/greyscale pages.

Sometimes the cover would be much bigger or smaller (in terms of physical dimensions) than the existing pages, presumably because I’m an idiot who doesn’t pay much attention to dots-per-inch measurements. So I’d use PDF2Go’s Change PDF Page Size tool to change it to whatever the dimensions of the master PDF was (open it in Preview, then command-I to find that).

OCR

After getting this far with all of the books I realised that none of them had been OCR’d to make them searchable. This was disguised by Preview because, these days, it will helpfully use some kind of image-to-text magic to make any PDF searchable and its text selectable. I could tell the difference by opening a large PDF that I knew had been OCR’d and searching that: the results were instant, while a non-OCR’d PDF showed results gradually, each page showing up in the sidebar as Preview worked through the file.

In the ScanSnap software there is an option to turn on OCR when scanning, which I’d missed while setting up my shortcuts for black-and-white and greyscale scanning. Presumably this would have done the trick, although I wonder if all the dragging of PDFs and pages into each other would then have messed this up?

Anyway, the ScanSnap also came with a copy of ABBYY FineReader and I was able to open each of the PDFs in that and have it OCR them, with results that seem to work well.

As a huge bonus, somehow, amazingly, this process also reduces the PDF file size. This makes no sense to me. Before I realised I had FineReader, I’d tried online OCR tools and they’d increased the file size. For example, OCRing a 6.5 MB PDF went like this:

  • PDF2Go made it into a 31 MB file
  • ILovePDF made it into a 10 MB file
  • ABBYY FineReader made it into a 2 MB file

I already did not understand PDF file sizes and at this point I gave up trying.

I had previously run the PDF pages through the online services’ Compress PDF tools, before adding the covers, but this was now an entirely superfluous step, so I reverted to the pre-compressed PDFs and OCR’d them.

One last wrinkle: the version of FineReader that came with my ScanSnap scanner would only process PDFs that had been made with that scanner. Because of something I’d done with one of the online services, one of my PDFs no longer counted as made by ScanSnap so it wouldn’t OCR. So I:

  1. Duplicated a made-by-ScanSnap PDF
  2. Deleted all but one page
  3. Used an online service to change its dimensions to the same as the PDF I wanted to be OCR’d
  4. Dragged all the pages-to-be-OCR’d into that made-by-ScanSnap PDF
  5. Deleted the one remaining original page
  6. Had FineReader OCR this made-by-ScanSnap container holding all the – sssh! – non-ScanSnap pages

Metadata

While checking the dimensions of a PDF I noticed some of the metadata fields available, and I wanted to set these appropriately. It seemed like the simplest way to do this (if you’re comfortable with the command line) is using ExifTool – I had no idea it could do things with PDFs as well as image files. So:

exiftool -Title="Men of Bad Character: The Witham Fires of the 1820s" -Author="Janet Gyford" -Keywords="Witham,Essex,history,fires,1820s,19th century" janet-gyford-men-of-bad-character.pdf

Write it all down

A more general tip for any process, not just this one: write everything down. I’ve always been keen on keeping documentation and writing commends in code, for me as much as anyone else. If you’re young and haven’t done enough for long enough to realise how much you can forget… you will! Soon!

Almost every project I have, no matter how small has a README.md file (or, usually, a _README.md so it’s alphabetically harder to miss) in which I describe exactly what I did. I did this for each of the books I PDF’d because each was slightly different.

This was already useful during the week as I found new problems and solutions along the way, forgetting what I’d already done with each book.

Write it all down! Even if you’re not planning to share it all in a long blog post.


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Sunday assorted links

1. Why AI can simulate but not instantiate consciousness.

2. Why you should start a company instead of working in aid.

3. Evidence that tennis has become less interesting?

4. A smidgen more on wet market origins.

5. Who is most (least) opposed to European immigration?

6. John Burn-Murdoch on the Jevons paradox and AI employment effects (FT).

7. Can plants sense the sound of rain?

8. Zena.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Inside the Pentagon: Why Concerns Are Growing Over Trump’s Military Leadership Moves

There’s growing concern inside the Pentagon—and the consequences could be profound.

In this episode of Reality Check, investigative journalist David Cay Johnston examines reports of senior military leaders being removed under the Trump administration and what that could mean for the future of America’s armed forces.

The United States has long prided itself on maintaining an apolitical military, where leadership is guided by merit, experience, and a sworn duty to uphold the Constitution—not personal loyalty to any one leader. But what happens when that tradition is challenged?

Johnston breaks down:

  • Why the removal of generals and admirals matters
  • The risks of politicizing the U.S. military
  • Historical warning signs associated with authoritarian regimes
  • What Americans should be watching closely moving forward

This is not just about personnel changes—it’s about the integrity of one of the nation’s most critical institutions.

👉 Read more reporting from David HERE.

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Reality Check with David Cay Johnston delivers sharp, fact-based analysis on politics, economics, and power—cutting through the noise to focus on what really matters.

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The post Inside the Pentagon: Why Concerns Are Growing Over Trump’s Military Leadership Moves appeared first on DCReport.org.

How Bitwarden Encrypts and Decrypts Secrets

As part of my efforts in reducing my dependency on Big Tech, I have been researching how to self-host my password manager. One solution that looks very promising is Vaultwarden, an open source clone of the Bitwarden cloud server. An interesting aspect of this server is that it stores all the secrets in a standard SQLite database, so in addition to having the self-hosted password server I could keep a backup copy of the database on my machine and query it directly. But of course, the secrets are encrypted in this database, so they are useless unless I learn how to decrypt them, similar to how the Bitwarden clients do it.

Speaking of the Bitwarden clients, while I was writing this article it came out that the official Bitwarden CLI client was compromised in a supply chain attack. This is a tool that I personally use and have on all my computers, so this feels like a wake up call to me. Luckily I did not install the compromised version myself, but I think there is an argument to be made about rolling your own secret management client instead of relying on the one all the hackers are after!

In this article I'll share how the encryption of secrets works in Bitwarden and its Vaultwarden clone. I'll also include working Python code, in case you want to tinker with this and like myself, would be interested in building your own tooling to keep your secrets safe.

SpaceX flies 25 Starlink satellites to orbit on its 50th Falcon 9 launch of the year

Falcon 9 first stage booster B1088 lifts off from Vandenberg with 25 Starlink satellites aboard. Image: SpaceX.

SpaceX launched its 50th Falcon 9 rocket of the year from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Sunday, carrying another batch of satellites for its Starlink internet service.

Liftoff of the Starlink 17-16 mission from Space Launch Complex 4 East occurred under cloudy skies at 7:37 a.m. PDT (10:37 a.m. EDT / 14:37 UTC). The rocket carrying 25 of SpaceX’s Starlink V2 Mini broadband internet satellites took a southerly trajectory on departure from the central California coast.

SpaceX used first stage booster B1088 for this mission. It was making its 15th flight following the launches of the NROL-126, Transporter-12, SPHEREx and NROL-57 missions, plus 10 previous batches of Starlink satellites.

Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1088 made an autonomous landing on the SpaceX drone ship, Of Course I Still Love You. It was the 193rd landing on this vessel and the 603rd booster landing to date.

SpaceX confirmed a successful deployment of the 25 Starlink satellites from the second stage a little over an hour into flight.

April 25, 2026

Tonight the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) held its annual black-tie dinner, which is designed both to raise money for the institution and to provide a glitzy night out for journalists. In recent years the event has drawn criticism for the chumminess it reveals between White House journalists and the lawmakers they cover. This year, that concern was heightened dramatically when the WHCA invited President Donald J. Trump to attend the dinner and to give a speech.

Since he entered the political arena, Trump has denigrated the press and even urged supporters to attack journalists, but in his second term his administration has gone further, trying to silence the press with lawsuits or threats of them against media outlets and individuals, blocking access to the White House and the Pentagon for journalists Trump dislikes, personally attacking female journalists, arresting independent journalists Don Lemon and Georgia Fort, and raiding the home of Washington Post political correspondent Hannah Natanson. Inviting him to address the press at a fancy dinner seemed to normalize his attacks on the First Amendment.

While it is customary for a president to attend at least one WHCA dinner, where traditionally a comedian roasts him, Trump has always refused to attend. This year, though, he agreed (although a mentalist was engaged to perform instead of the usual comedian). With his job approval numbers plummeting and the administration mired in a war in Iran that Trump appears to have started on a whim, along with the economy stumbling, there was plenty of speculation about what he would say at the event and how journalists should react if he used the opportunity to insult them.

We will probably never know. Something happened at the event that made Secret Service agents evacuate Trump and First Lady Melania Trump. Exactly what happened is not yet clear: it appears law enforcement stopped an armed man outside the event, and a subsequent noise alarmed dinner attendees and Secret Service agents, who rushed the president, the first lady, and other government officials to a secure location.

During the confusion, as Trump was being held near the ballroom, he posted: “Quite an evening in D.C. Secret Service and Law Enforcement did a fantastic job. They acted quickly and bravely. The shooter has been apprehended, and I have recommended that we ‘LET THE SHOW GO ON’ but, will entirely be guided by Law Enforcement. They will make a decision shortly. Regardless of that decision, the evening will be much different than planned, and we’ll just, plain, have to do it again.”

Then, at 8:36, he posted that law enforcement “has requested that we leave the premises, consistent with protocol, which we will do, immediately. I will be giving a press conference in 30 minutes from the White House Press Briefing Room. The First Lady, plus the Vice President, and all Cabinet members, are in perfect condition. We will be speaking to you in a half an hour. I have spoken with the representatives in charge of the event, and we will be rescheduling within 30 days.”

Trump took to the podium a little after 10:30. Referring to the threat of a shooting at the White House Correspondents Dinner—which has never happened before—he said: “I will say, you know, it’s not a particularly secure building, and, uh, I didn’t want to say this, but this is why we have to have all of the attributes of what we’re planning at the White House. It’s actually a larger room, and it’s much more secure. It’s got— It’s drone proof. It’s bulletproof glass. We need the ballroom. That’s why Secret Service, that’s why the military are demanding it. They’ve wanted the ballroom for 150 years for lots of different reasons, but today’s, uh, a little bit different, because today, we need levels of security that probably nobody’s ever seen before.”

Trump said that there was a record crowd at tonight’s event and that he felt everyone coming together, but he urged people to do so even more fully in light of what he said was another attempt on his life. In response to a question about why Trump thought attempts on his life happened so frequently—a reminder: there is as yet no information about what the man’s plan or motives were—he responded that assassins come for “impactful people” and boasted of how much he has done for the country.

The Framers of our government enshrined the right to freedom of the press in our Constitution along with the right to gather together, to practice any religion we want (including none at all), the right to say what we want, and the right to ask our government to do (or not to do) things. After writing a new constitution that created a far stronger national government than existed under the Articles of Confederation, which had underpinned the government since 1777 (although the Articles were not ratified until 1781), the Framers designed the ten amendments that make up the Bill of Rights to hold back government power.

The power to control what citizens can publish about the government would give leaders the power to destroy democracy. A free press is imperative to keep people informed about what leaders are doing. Lose it, and those in power can do whatever they wish without accountability.

From the beginning of the American republic, though, the press was openly partisan. This meant the president worked quite closely with newspaper reporters from his own party while ignoring, or sometimes even trying to silence, his opponents. By the 1880s the country had begun to turn against the partisan press and to “independent” newspapers, and the number of papers took off.

No longer advocates for a party position and eager to attract readers, reporters began to look for new, exciting stories. And not much was more exciting in 1886 than a marriage in the White House. On June 2 of that year, 49-year-old President Grover Cleveland married 21-year-old Frances Folsom, who had been his unofficial ward, in the Blue Room.

Reporters had dogged their courtship (many thought he was interested in her more age-appropriate mother), and they flocked after the newlyweds, finally prompting the irritated president to ask his personal secretary to keep them away. But while the president was angry at the scrutiny, editors recognized a good story, and by the end of Cleveland’s first term, a reporter had figured out he could just stay at the White House and write columns based on interviews with people coming from meetings with the president. Other papers immediately stationed their own people at the White House.

In Cleveland’s second term, which started in 1893, his private secretary worked directly with the press. Through the next few presidencies, the role of press secretary began to take shape. Theodore Roosevelt relished attention from reporters. When his shy successor William Howard Taft shunned them, they complained he was hiding things.

So, shortly after he took office in 1913, President Woodrow Wilson held the nation’s first press conference, only to complain both that reporters were quoting statements he considered off the record and that the conferences were a free-for-all in which anyone could shout out questions, often ones Wilson found irritating (like his opinion about Groundhog Day).

In 1914, rumors circulated that Congress might begin to choose which reporters would be allowed at Wilson’s press conferences. In alarm, eleven White House reporters organized the White House Correspondents’ Association. In 1921, as part of their annual election of officers, fifty members of the growing WHCA held a dinner. With former newspaperman Warren G. Harding in the White House, they were in a celebratory mood despite Prohibition (which they ignored). Taking their cue from the famous Gridiron Club, which held dinners where they roasted politicians, WHCA members poked fun at the administration and Congress.

While at first the reporters simply wanted access to the president, as the WHCA became an established force it came to work for transparency more generally, recognizing that journalists are the main eyes and voice of the people. It protected press passes for journalists who regularly covered the White House, and assigned seats in the briefing room.

But all that changed in February 2025, after Trump took office for the second time. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that the administration would no longer recognize the role of the WHCA in managing the White House press pool. Instead, she said the “White House press team” would control access to the White House. At the time, then–WHCA president Eugene Daniels said the change “tears at the independence of a free press in the United States” and “suggests the government will choose the journalists who cover the president.”

“In a free country,” Daniels said, “leaders must not be able to choose their own press corps.”

Trump repeated tonight that the White House Correspondents’ Dinner will be rescheduled.

Notes:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-intimidating-attacking-journalists_n_69ea5c60e4b0bb584bc9be11

https://www.whitehousehistory.org/press-room/press-timelines/the-white-house-and-the-press-timeline

https://whca.press/about/history/

https://whca.press/covering-the-white-house/

https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/

https://www.newsweek.com/white-house-correspondents-dinner-does-taxpayer-pay-it-1403484

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/25/media/white-house-correspondents-pool/index.html

https://www.wral.com/president-donald-trump-speaks-from-the-white-house-after-shots-fired-at-correspondents-dinner/22351919/

YouTube:

watch?v=S8exXUMcU20&t=1561s

Bluesky:

atrupar.com/post/3mkegbm3uns26

sentdefender-mirr.selfhosted.social/post/3mkefnzwkwu2b

artcandee.bsky.social/post/3mkejncwp5s2t

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Generative AI and Entrepreneurship

This paper studies how Generative AI (Gen AI) is reshaping the U.S. startup ecosystem. Exploiting the release of ChatGPT, we show that startups with greater pre-release Gen AI task exposure reduced employment within two quarters, primarily among junior and implementation roles. Displaced workers experienced longer unemployment spells and moved to lower-paying but less exposed jobs. Conversely, exposed startups increased productivity, scaled faster, and accelerated through financing rounds. Venture capital shifted toward frequent, smaller investments, boosting new firm formation. Overall, incumbent contraction was offset by new firm formation, leaving aggregate employment unchanged but shifting composition to senior roles.

That is from a new and important paper by Abhinav Gupta, Franklin Qian, Elena Simintz, & Yifan Sun.

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Will AI save the U.S. fiscal situation?

A tenth of a percentage point of extra productivity growth — well within the range of plausible near-term AI effects — raises the fundamental value of U.S. government debt by $1.3 trillion. If markets fully priced this in, nominal Treasury yields would fall by about 70 basis points.

Half a percentage point of extra growth would raise the value of the debt by $6.5 trillion. For context: under the CBO baseline, the debt-to-GDP ratio rises from 100% today to 172% by 2055. Under the +0.5pp scenario, it stabilizes near 124%. Debt-to-GDP stops exploding. That is an enormous change in the fiscal outlook, and it comes from a rate of growth only modestly above the post-2000 average…

There is a second, subtler point. Because revenue scales as GDP^1.07, the fundamental value of the debt is a convex function of productivity growth. A +1pp growth shock raises value by 108%; a −1pp shock only lowers it by 87%.

That asymmetry means bondholders gain from uncertainty, not just from higher expected growth. If markets become more uncertain about AI’s long-run productivity impact, and that uncertainty is mean-preserving, Treasury valuations should still rise. Holding expected growth fixed, ±0.5pp of growth uncertainty is worth about $0.7 trillion in convexity value. Treasuries embed a long call option on AI, and the option is valuable even when the strike is out of the money.

Here is more from Hanno Lustig, with Howard Kung and James Paron.  Here is the full paper.  These are of course very important results, kudos to the authors.  Via the excellent Samir Varma.

The post Will AI save the U.S. fiscal situation? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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NASA reserves science payload space for Mars telecommunications mission

Blue Ring Mars telecom orbiter

NASA is reserving a small amount of space on a Mars telecommunications spacecraft for science, which could be one or more cubesats.

The post NASA reserves science payload space for Mars telecommunications mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Making Sense of the Iran War

As the Iran war drags on, I wanted to share some thoughts on the proper context in which to see the conflict. Donald Trump lost this war in its very first days. Everything that has happened in recent weeks — the threats, the negotiations, the live-on-social-media breakdowns — has simply been a matter of trying to get free of that fact. This isn’t a political attack. It’s simply an accurate appraisal of what we all see. More importantly, it is the only way to understand what is happening now. Everything that’s happening today and for weeks has been focused on breaking Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz, something it didn’t have before the war started. That’s the definition of failure: fighting a war and continuing a war to clean up the mess the war of choice actually created. By this measure, the best way to achieve what is now the central war aim — opening the Strait — would have been simply not to start the war in the first place.

You can see the reality of the power balance in the visible fact that Trump wants negotiations and an end to the conflict more than Iran does. He keeps asking for them or demanding them. Iran holds back. They have the upper hand, notwithstanding all the vast damage to infrastructure, civilian and military, Iran has suffered.

It all comes back to the foundational fact that Trump lost control of the situation and lost the conflict itself in the first days. Everything since has simply been an effort to ignore or bluster through or deny that fact. Trump wants out of the war so he’s not willing to use the level of force that might prevail over the Iranian blockade. The Iranian leadership sees that just as clearly as everyone else. And as he waits he and the global economy sustain damage. He’s stuck and since he won’t recognize that fact the conflict and the massive damage to the global economy continues, even if the scale of the fighting, for the moment, doesn’t.

Rec League

My thanks to Rec League for sponsoring last week at DF. Rec League is a new app/social network for sharing what you’re into. (Get it? The “rec” in “Rec League” is for recommendations. It’s a damn clever name, and sometimes a clever name is half the battle.) It’s really well done, with a great simple brand aesthetic and obvious navigation and mechanics. You can easily use Rec League just to catalog your own collections: restaurants, books, movies, gadgets, whatever. The social aspects are totally low key. You find people whose taste you dig and you follow them. When you see something you like you can favorite or just save it. That’s it. It’s an old-school social network where the point is just fun and surprise and sharing.

Rec League was featured as the “Best New App” in the App Store, and one of their users called it “the only social media I feel better after using”, which feels like a perfect description. It’s just cool people recommending things they think are cool. I’ve already bought some stuff and added some movies to my watch list from using it, and I’ve started a little list of restaurants I recommend in Philadelphia. Download Rec League and check it out. I, uh, recommend it.

 ★ 

Can you find the comet? Can you find the comet?


DF Paraphernalia: Last Call for This Round of T-Shirts and Hoodies

It’s really just a coincidence, but it was 20 years ago this week that I went full-time writing Daring Fireball (after writing the site in my spare time for 4 years). That feels like a long time ago. But it feels like yesterday, too. In my announcement, I wrote:

Daring Fireball is what I love to do.

That remains as true today than it was then. Whether you’re a longtime reader or a relatively new one, you might enjoy reading that piece from 20 years ago. So far, so good. (I’ve got some readers who were only small children when I wrote that. I occasionally hear from some who weren’t even born then.)

There might be other ways you can support my work directly in the future. But for now, the best way is to buy t-shirts and hoodies from my periodic sales. The current sale is going to end sometime tomorrow. If you’re seeing this post Sunday night and thinking about making a purchase, act now. If you’re seeing this Monday morning, you should really act now.

Thumbnail of a classic Daring Fireball logo t-shirt.

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Severe Weather Threat Shifted to the Southern Plains and Mid-South; Critical Fire Weather in the Southern Plains