I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident:
1. “This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before.
2. “This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before.
3. “This happened, and as far as we can tell, absolutely no one was harmed,” therefore I am less worried than before.
Obviously the net impact, from those bare hypotheses, is indeterminate. And yet few people seem to be paying much heed to #2 or #3. Joshua Saxe from the cyber world has some relevant observations. And perhaps other updates are needed as well.
The post The optimal Bayesian update? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Well, hello, and welcome from London, where I’m currently melting; it’s hot down here and full of people. Honestly I don’t know how you do it.
I’ve been playing some more with the drawing machine and the iPad. I’ve “taught it” how to paint; i.e. coded in the position of the colour palette, and the brush selector, the the plotter can hit those parts of the screen.
Here’s a classic-ish “Pop” design, but drawn in a brush specifically designed for those “pile of bones” thrash metal logos.
Some did ask “but why?” - and “can’t you just do that with brushed along a path in Illustrator?” or similar - which is a fair question.
But where I wanted to take it was somewhere here (but good-er).
Which is using the Adobe Fresco iPad app that has some simulated colour mixed in it. Above is showing it dragging yellow “oil paint” through thick chunk red paint. Which is something you can’t do easily, if at all, with vectors in Illustrator.
Here’s another with the “Ghost” plot, and thinner lines.
Where if you look closely at the lines to the front, you can see the blue mixing in with the yellow, and yellow smudging the magenta lines.
I was supposed to send out the monthly postcards and cards to the Patreon people yesterday, but I asked them to give me another week as I felt there was a bit more to explore before I land on the final things.
Well, technically and artistically there’s a lot more to explore in this weird digital - analogue - digital thing going on. Pen plotting with digital pigment is a curious thing, and yet next month we’ll be moving onto something else!
Behind the scenes, the technical stuff isn’t complicated and there’s easier (I think) ways of doing this, but this is what I’m doing…
Step one, connect the iPad to the laptop.
Step two, open QuickTime and pick New Movie Recording, and select the iPad as a screen input. The iPad screen will now fill the QuickTime window.
Step three, in my own OSX app, it grabs (with system permissions) whatever is in the QuickTime window - the window doesn’t need to be visible for this btw, it’s grabbing what would be shown in the QT window rather than grabbing the screen - small but useful detail. The QT window is the small one on the left in the above image.
Step four, in my own app, it displays the contents of the QT window, but I can now put overlays on it, and I can click and drag on the window - which controls the pen plotter via the BantamTools python library.
The short is, once I’ve recorded the position the plotter needs to tap the top-left and bottom-right corners, we can then calculate any position and map anything on the virtual screen to the clicking and drawing on the actual iPad.
I enjoyed watching this video about the thinking behind and then execution of this project, it’s a good 10 minute watch while eating lunch.
I wish more people explained their art like this, although I can understand the many reasons why people don’t.
We’ve linked to Cadin before with his “Creating a System for Dynamic Plottable Text in Processing”, back in newsletter, hmmmmmmmm, #27- Super Stupid Patreon Maths- Super Stupid Patreon Maths.
The Patreon plots this month got me back into plotting the “Ghost” design.
And had me also revisiting the tools I use to create it.
I’ve always used this page which started off as a spiral generator with Perlin noise and then dialled in the settings to give me a “ghost”, and there’s way more controls than I actually need.
So I rewrote a simplified version that focuses on just the things that I normally tweak, where I can grab nodes to adjust the starting and ending positions & radius, “flouncyness” and so on. Which means I can create “Ghosts” a lot faster and easier too.
I’m thinking about going back to other plots design I often use and reducing them down to just the values I normally tweak.
Always a joy to go back to old project and revisit them with fresh eyes and coding knowledge.
Another tool I kept coming back to was wanting to tile things easily, so I spent a lot of my spare time in the last two weeks working on that too.
When this newsletter goes out, I’ll probably be in a pub (not drinking) and being social, I’m sure it’ll be very enjoyable but many spoons will be spent. I’m very much looking forwards to being able to crash in a hotel room and just sleep with the air-con on full blast.
I hope you’re all doing very well, and having a chance to not only push forwards new projects but revisit old ones.
I’m getting a hunch that next newsletter (Thursday 6th of August, date fans) will be book review heavy, as a few have landed on my desk recently and I haven’t had a chance to talk about them yet!
SEND ME YOUR RECOMMENDATIONS (or put them in the comments).
Lots of love
Dan
🧡
1. Christopher Priest and Nina Allan, The Illuminated Man: Life, Death and the Worlds of J.G. Ballard. Priest died before he finished this book, and his widow added material, including on Priest himself. This is in any case a good overview and introduction to the strange worlds of Ballard. There is only a UK edition so far.
2. Christian Kracht, Eurotrash, A Novel. I was put off by the title, but it turns out this is a fun and high-level short Swiss novel about driving around Switzerland with your semi-crazy eighty-year-old mother on a road trip. It helps to have some knowledge of both Switzerland and broader German-language literature.
3. Walter Kempowski, Alles Umsonst. From 2006, could this be the best German-language novel since Sebald? It is about the pending doom from the Russian army approaching on East Prussia in 1945, and how the different characters deal with that, set on a German estate. Applicable to many other real world situations as well. There is an English-language translation, I am not sure how good it is. In any case an important and very good work of fiction.
4. Lars Behrisch, Democracy’s Double Helix: Participation, Equality and Revolution in Early Modern Europe. A good book about how the roots of semi-democratic decision-making are found in 16th century Europe, and stemmed from new needs to assemble various military and fiscal coalitions. Looks at the problem more broadly, in geographic terms, than most comparable studies.
5. Katie Kitamura, Audition. A fun short novel, full of mystery and suspense, good for those who like puzzles in their writing.
The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.




Historically, central Utah’s Castle Valley has been a coal hub, with mining operations on the slopes of the Wasatch Plateau to the west active since the late 1800s. A different energy development arrived in the region in June 2026, when a large solar power and battery storage plant came online in the sunny valley about 130 miles (210 kilometers) southeast of Salt Lake City.
The recently constructed Green River Energy Center, seen in the Landsat 8 image above (right), features nearly one million solar panels and roughly 500 batteries on several square miles of previously undeveloped land. The facility has 400 megawatts of solar-generating capacity with another 400 megawatts of battery storage. That places it among the many utility-scale solar power and battery storage projects that the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects to be plugged into the country’s grid in 2026.
The Utah facility is slated to supply power to Salt Lake City and other areas across the state, according to news reports, and project staff estimate it could produce enough electricity for more than 100,000 homes. With its integrated battery storage, the plant has the potential to generate power at all hours, even when the Sun isn’t shining. And the Green River Energy Center can build on Castle Valley’s energy legacy by utilizing existing transmission lines originally built for coal-fired power plants in the area.
Though Utah adopted coal as its state rock and has long relied on it for energy, other sources, such as solar and geothermal, are becoming larger parts of the state’s energy mix. In 2025, coal fueled about half of the state’s electricity generation, down from about 75 percent in 2015. Meanwhile, solar grew to account for about 14 percent of generation in 2025, up from nearly zero a decade before. Satellite data can be useful to planners and policymakers involved in energy transitions for assessing the potential of renewable energy systems and tracking their adoption and performance.
NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Lindsey Doermann.
Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

A recent analysis revealed where artificial light at night has intensified, as well as where it has diminished.

From a geothermal hotspot to the one-time “Lighthouse of the Pacific,” the heat is on beneath the volcanic landscape of…

An astronaut’s photo, taken en route to the Moon, reveals our planet and its place in space in a novel…
The post A Million-Panel Project appeared first on NASA Science.
We’ve been traveling through New Mexico for the past week, and all you hear about is how thirsty the state is – both for water and technology.
I will not claim to be a New Mexico water expert after a few days on the ground, but the stories of dire times have been relentless. One woman we met lives in the mountains near Albuquerque where people have been digging their own wells and tapping into the local aquifer for decades. The wells of all her neighbors have run dry, and the mountain folk are now trucking in water to get by. Not too far away, Elephant Butte Reservoir on the outskirts of Truth Or Consequences sits at two percent of its total capacity. Meta also has a huge datacenter complex in the area, but the locals want nothing to do with any more datacenter expansion if the great silicon farms are going to suck away whatever the aquifers have left.
New Mexico runs on oil, farming and tourism, and the feeling seems to be that the farming has about two decades left, the oil has three decades left and the tourism will have to work pretty damn hard to keep this economy going.
But there is hope. I guess.
Republicans have settled on their midterm argument: Democrats are all Communists. As an election strategy, this is as lame as it is ludicrous. But there is a small kernel of political reality underlying the new right-wing red-baiting: The emergence of a widespread public backlash against the extreme concentration of wealth in the hands of billionaires.
This backlash shows up in multiple surveys. According to the Harris Billionaires Survey, 73 percent of Americans believe that wealth inequality is a serious national issue, up from 66 percent in 2022. A UMass Amherst poll found 58 percent of Americans saying that billionaires are a threat to democracy, with 45 percent saying that America is an oligarchy, “a government in which a small group exercises control especially for corrupt and selfish purposes.” Only 28 percent disagreed.
And as I noted last week, citing research from political scientist Andrew Hall, Democratic fundraising has recently begun to lean heavily into denunciations of the undue influence of billionaires:
So if you define anyone who raises concerns about the wealth and political power of billionaires as a Communist, well, in that sense you are defining a majority of Americans as communists.
Why is the public backlash against billionaires going viral now? This is an interesting question, since both the concentration of wealth at the top and political spending by billionaires have been increasing for decades. For example, the Koch Brothers have been donating to the Federalist Society, the clique of right-wing legal lobbyists who created the Roberts Supreme Court, since the early 1980s. Fossil fuel interests have been spreading climate disinformation since global warming began showing up in the data. Political spending by billionaires has been immense for more than a decade, although it reached new heights to help Trump win the presidency and to win Republican congressional seats in the 2024 election. Why, then, has it taken so long for the popular billionaire backlash to reach critical mass?
One answer is that Trump has brought American oligarchy out of the shadows and into the spotlight. As I noted last week, the spectacle of “the cavalcade of fawning tech bros at the Trump inauguration” was a clear wake-up call. Yet the display of billionaire fealty to Trump, I would argue, is part of a larger dynamic in which the new generation of American oligarchs have chosen to make themselves public figures and hence public targets.
The fact is that billionaires have had immense political power for decades, but they chose to exercise that power from the shadows, veiling their actions through patriotic sounding right-wing PACs and think tanks. Only political junkies understood what was going on underneath the surface.
Today, however, the new generation of the hyper-wealthy are out there and in your face, flaunting their influence rather than concealing it. And the poster child for this change is, of course, Elon Musk.
To understand the significance of this change in the behavior of the hyper-wealthy, it’s useful to compare the lists of top individual donors compiled by OpenSecrets in different recent elections, specifically 2016 and 2024.
In 2016, the top 100 donors split their spending almost equally between Republicans and Democrats, with 9 of the top 20 strongly pro-Democratic. This was unusual and surely reflected the fact that a significant number of Republican donors were appalled by Donald Trump. But by 2024, when Trump was again the GOP standard-bearer, most of these qualms and scruples had disappeared: the top 100 donors spent more than 3 times as much on Republicans as they did on Democrats, and only 5 of the top 20 supported Democrats. This, after Trump’s authoritarianism and corruption had become plainly evident.
More to the point, consider who the top Republican donors were in 2016. People who follow politics closely have long been aware of the key roles in right-wing politics played by Sheldon and Miriam Adelson (gambling money), Paul Singer (vulture capitalist), Robert Mercer (computer scientist turned hedge funder), and Richard Uilein (shipping). But none of them sought the celebrity limelight, and it was always an uphill struggle to raise public awareness of their malign policy and political influence.
The 2024 list still includes many of the traditionally quiet oligarchs. But, unlike before, it also includes a number of right-wing billionaires who love to put themselves in the public eye and offer their views on everything from fiscal policy to culture. These include Ken Griffin (hedge fund), Marc Andreesen (tech/venture capital), and Stephen Schwarzman (private equity.)
And topping the list is, of course, Musk. He spent much of last year de facto running large parts of the U.S. government, slashing spending in ways that failed to save taxpayer money but did lead to serious degradation of government functioning and have already led to hundreds of thousands of deaths. Moreover, Musk’s narcissism – much like Donald Trump – has compelled him to make himself the center of attention in press conferences held in the Oval Office. And, like Trump, he doesn’t learn from his mistakes. He is now noisily weighting in not just on politics, the evils of wokeness and nonwhite immigration, and so on, but on The Odyssey. (He hated it and predicted, wrongly, that it would be a box-office disaster.)
The larger point here is that there has been an important transition in America from the days when oligarchic power was mostly exercised in the shadows to the current era of flamboyant and extremist displays of billionaire influence.
What caused the change? At least part of the cause is a shift in the origins of great wealth, from fossil fuels (e.g. the Koch brothers) and other traditional industries to the tech broligarchy. As Henry Farrell argues, many tech billionaires are caught up in the cult of “founders,” believing themselves to be superior beings entitled to special privilege and universal acclaim — which means putting themselves out in public. I would add that the tech industry has suffered a precipitous decline in public perceptions since its peak around 2015 — and the fawning tech bros at the Trump inauguration were, to a large extent, former culture heroes who want their glory days back.
So surely part of the reason a majority of Americans now say that democracy is being undermined, that billionaires are running everything, is that the billionaires themselves are out there boasting about their influence.
And their brazenness is actually doing the rest of us a favor. Mobilizing against the oligarchic threat to democracy was hard when the oligarchs were operating from the shadows. It’s easier now that some of them are out in the open.
Elon Musk makes an unlikely hero of populism. But his odious and unbridled narcissism may very well help save the American republic.
MUSICAL CODA
The first known runaway AI agent - or a very bad marketing stunt?
Martin Alderson's commentary on the OpenAI accidental cyberattack against Hugging Face includes a couple of details I hadn't considered.First, Hugging Face offers a truly rich target if you're trying to find potential vulnerabilities that require executing arbitrary code:
Hugging Face has an enormous attack surface. They have more interfaces than I can count which run untrusted models and code. While they definitely have invested in defences, by nature of their operating model they do have many more opportunities to be attacked than many other services. I certainly don't envy their cybersecurity teams.
Secondly, one of the things that has puzzled me is how OpenAI didn't notice that their sandbox had been so thoroughly breached by the agent. Surely they'd be monitoring network traffic closely?
Martin points out that:
It's also likely they were running a huge amount of benchmarks simultaneously with ~unlimited token budgets - you want as many samples as possible to figure out how good a model is at a certain benchmark. It may also be they are testing various different checkpoints of the model too, understanding how the model is improving as it goes through the various training stages.
The mistakes made by the OpenAI team running this benchmark are easier to imagine when you think about the scale at which benchmarks of this kind usually operate. For all we know they could have been subjecting a new model to dozens of benchmarks at the same time, in dozens of different environments.
Via Lobste.rs
Tags: security, ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, hugging-face, ai-security-research
The Python Package Index (PyPI) now rejects new files being uploaded to releases that are older than 14 days. This restriction was put in place to prevent old and long-stable releases from being poisoned in case publishing tokens or workflows of PyPI projects were compromised. As far as we are aware this has not yet been abused, but there is no technical reason beyond that attackers weren't aware it was possible.
— Seth Larson, PyPI blog
Tags: packaging, python, supply-chain, pypi, seth-michael-larson
Up and to my office, and thence by information from Mr. Ackworth I went down to Woolwich, and mustered the three East India ships that lie there, believing that there is great-juggling between the Pursers and Clerks of the Cheque in cheating the King of the wages and victuals of men that do not give attendance, and I found very few on board.
So to the yard, and there mustered the yard, and found many faults, and discharged several fellows that were absent from their business.
I staid also at Mr. Ackworth’s desire at dinner with him and his wife, and there was a simple fellow, a gentleman I believe of the Court, their kinsmen, that threatened me I could have little discourse or begin, acquaintance with Ackworth’s wife, and so after dinner away, with all haste home, and there found Sir J. Minnes and Sir W. Batten at the office, and by Sir W. Batten’s testimony and Sir G. Carteret’s concurrence was forced to consent to a business of Captain Cocke’s timber, as bad as anything we have lately disputed about, and all through Mr. Coventry’s not being with us.
So up and to supper with Sir W. Batten upon a soused mullett, very good meat, and so home and to bed.

On Monday, the New York Times published a long article illustrating the real-world impact of the changes congressional Republicans and the Trump administration have made to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. It’s harrowing and maddening, and it shows something important about the way Republicans make policy: Not only do they seek to cut the amount of money spent on social programs, they’re also very creative at finding ways to weaponize bureaucracy against the people they don’t like, especially poor people.
The party that complains constantly about “burdensome regulations” and “red tape” is very adept at making regulations more burdensome and weaving miles of new red tape, so long as the right people are made to suffer. But weaponized bureaucracy is both a public and private problem, and there is a more hopeful story to be told: At least one politician, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, is showing how needless bureaucracy in government and the private sector can be attacked in ways that not only improve people’s lives but yield political benefit.
Let’s start with the horror being unleashed on SNAP recipients. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the package of upper-income tax breaks and social service cuts Republicans passed last year, enables the administration to deploy new tools to combat “fraud” in SNAP, i.e. people getting benefits who aren’t eligible. This is a genuine problem, but rather than try to solve it without immiserating those who are already struggling, the Republican answer is to multiply the bureaucratic hurdles everyone has to jump through, including by threatening states (which administer the program) with such draconian punishments that the states feel they have no choice to do it themselves.
Which is what has happened in Arizona, where the Times article focuses:
To avoid errors and the resulting penalties, Arizona quickly demanded proof of information it had generally accepted without documentation unless there was reason to doubt it. Previously, applicants could simply declare who was part of the household. Now many had to get signed letters from neighbors or friends. Caseworkers mostly stopped taking wage data from employers by phone.
Connor Erickson, who manages a Phoenix SNAP office, said the quest for audit-proof verification reached an extreme in the case of panhandling income, when the office asked for records of donated cash it knew most applicants could not get. In the end, it accepted their best-guess estimates, but “we had to make them go through these hurdles.”
“Yes, it’s ridiculous,” he said.
Processing the paperwork was especially hard since Arizona had just laid off a third of its caseworkers after losing a federal grant, and its computer technology is antiquated. At a Phoenix office last month, screens announced that wait times for clients had reached five hours.
I recommend reading the whole article (here’s a gift link) to hear the heartbreaking stories of the people who are finding it difficult or impossible to feed their families under these new policies. As Don Moynihan and Pamela Herd point out, it’s the most vulnerable people — those in poor health, or with the fewest resources — who struggle most to overcome the bureaucratic hurdles being placed between them and the food they need to survive.
To be clear, subjecting people to so much hassle that they find it impossible to obtain what they’re entitled to isn’t some kind of unintended consequence of weaponized systems like these, it’s the whole point. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, over 4.5 million Americans have lost SNAP benefits since the OBBA was passed, including 1.5 million children. Republicans consider this a cause for celebration.
This is just a preview of what’s to come, because the OBBA also imposed “work requirements” on Medicaid recipients — a longtime goal of Republicans — but those don’t take effect until after the midterm elections. When they do, it will be an absolute bloodbath, with millions of people losing their health coverage not because they aren’t working but because they are unable to satisfy the new bureaucratic requirements.
There’s a deeper conversation to be had about the way Americans’ valorize “hard work” and want to deny fundamental things like health care to those who are judged to be insufficiently industrious, but for now we can just focus on the fact that this is one more effort to punish people for being poor, or even lower-middle class. Not only is almost everyone on Medicaid either already doing paid work or has a legitimate reason not to (i.e. they’re in school or they’re a caregiver to a family member), research shows that requiring people to document their work hours or lose coverage has no effect on how many of them are working.
That’s because work requirements are actually paperwork requirements, and like other forms of weaponized bureaucracy they fall hardest on those who have less money, education, and resources and are thus least capable of navigating the obstacle course necessary to retain their benefits.
And it isn’t just a matter of the time and effort required to traverse that obstacle course. There’s another factor too, which is that weaponized bureaucracy is its own punishment, delivered by those in power upon those without it. Like drug tests for welfare recipients — who are actually less likely to use drugs than the average American — the point is to humiliate them and impose a time tax on them. The message is clear: Maybe you can have SNAP or Medicaid, but we’re going to make it as hard and unpleasant to obtain as possible, so you feel the appropriate shame for being poor.
When he was an unknown state representative with dreams of becoming mayor, Zohran Mamdani starting posting videos to social media, including this one about how city bureaucracy imposed enormous costs on food truck owners, driving up the price everyone has to pay for an order of chicken and rice:
The price of a halal plate hasn’t come down to $8 yet (they’re working on it), but Mamdani is making the elimination of bureaucracy, especially in the form of a cumbersome permitting process, one of the centerpieces of his effort to show that he’s attacking seemingly small but meaningful problems:
Remember “Click to Cancel”? It was a regulation passed under the Biden administration’s Federal Trade Commission to crack down on companies that make it almost impossible to cancel a subscription or membership once you have it. If you’ve ever tried to cancel a gym membership, which can require you to appear in person and present a certified letter while standing on one foot and flawlessly reciting the first three pages of Remembrance of Things Passed in both French and English from memory, you know why this is needed. The rule required those kinds of services to be no more complicated to cancel than they are to sign up for. Unfortunately, an appeals court panel made up of two judges appointed by Trump and one by George H.W. Bush struck down the regulation last year, which is just fine with the Trump administration.
Mamdani is on that too: He just announced the first municipal Click to Cancel rule in the country, as well as a rule requiring transparency in junk fees, to attack that thing we’ve all experienced when you see one price advertised, but then before you click “Complete Order” it turns out you’re being charged a Processing Fee and a Convenience Fee and a Gotcha, Sucker Fee. He’s not the only one doing this: A number of Democratic-run states, including Connecticut, California, New York, and Colorado, have passed some version of Click to Cancel rules.
The lesson here is that SNAP paperwork rules, Medicaid work requirements, the impossibility of cancelling a subscription, and junk fees are all part of the same problem: Those with power weaponizing bureaucracy to screw people over. Showing voters that your party is the one that wants to make life less exasperating and difficult for everyone is just good politics.
Thank you for reading The Cross Section. This site has no paywall, so I depend on the generosity of readers to sustain the work I present here. If you find what you read valuable and would like it to continue, consider becoming a paid subscriber.
Links for you. Science:
More testosterone won’t make a better soldier or a tougher man – aggression and strength drive T levels, not the other way around
You’ve Heard of Cyclospora. What Other Parasites Can You Catch From Food?
First-in-human testing of a mutant KRAS vaccine for pancreatic cancer interception in high-risk cohorts
Inferring single-cell heterogeneity of bacteriophage lysis-associated life-history traits from population-scale dynamics
Study Validates More Trap Options to Detect New World Screwworm Flies
Senator Cassidy should vote no on Dr. Erica Schwartz’s nomination as CDC Director.
White House admits it used keywords to kill billions worth of California research grants (this means Bhattacharya has lied publicly, though not under oath)
Other:
DoorDash Declares War on DC Home Rule Over A 20-Cent Fee
Oppose H.R. 9720, the “D.C. Taxing Authority Review Act” (my related thoughts here)
Russell Vought should be impeached
Truth Without Reconciliation: Why did Brazil’s democratic institutions hold firm while those in the United States so quickly wilted?
Stop Saying Kids Can’t Read. Everyone is talking about the reading crisis. But inside the “Mississippi Miracle,” it’s all about comprehension.
Should Federalist Society Membership be an Impeachable Offense for Judges?
Will Congress Save the “Sistine Chapel of the New Deal”?
I Guess We’re Trying This Again, Huh? Democratic nominee for Ohio governor is recycling an anti-trans strategy that didn’t work two years ago, there’s no evidence it will work this year either.
Senator Accuses RFK Jr. of Election Interference
My Brother Was Sentenced to 30 Years for Moving a Box of Zines
Trump’s latest public health initiative: explosive diarrhea
Locked Away: On a military base in West Texas, where the government has built a sprawling tent complex to hold thousands of immigrants, deprivation and dire conditions are part of the design.
Road deaths up sharply in the nation’s capital, despite goal of reaching zero. D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser pledged to eliminate traffic deaths in the city. More than a decade later, they still haven’t gone down.
Assault, Misogyny, Verbal Threats: Records Detail New Allegations Against Rep. Max Miller
The political polarization of health outcomes in the USA
Why Are Waymos Still Blocking Bike Lanes?
The creepiest ‘sales demo’ of all time
The Many Faces of Anne Hathaway
Taylor Farms Met with Trump White House Days Before FDA Backtrack on Cyclosporiasis Findings, Sparking Controversy
US civil rights agency moves to end demographic data collection after 60 years
AI Psychosis
St. Paul Remade Human History. How Did He Do It?
Dealing with dickovers (very useful information about how to use the internet better)
Conservatives are dying at higher rates than liberals. A new study points to mistrust in medicine
Global dependence on US tech was always the plan
Senior Living Facility in Distress as Immigrant Caregivers Are Forced Out
On Monday, I discussed how House Republicans, led by conspiracist wackadoodle James Comey has proposed legislation to prohibit the mainland colony of the District of Columbia from raising taxes. That legislation also would require Congressional legislation for D.C. to be able to raise property assessments (e.g., raising the estimate of your house is worth). If you thought California’s Proposition 13 was bad, well, this is even worse.
Now it appears DoorDash, which is butthurt over a 20 cent per delivery tax for orders, a fee that pays for improving access for lower-income people to healthy food, is attempting to undermine D.C. residents’ limited self-governance (boldface mine):
DoorDash unsuccessfully fought the fee, delivering a petition with 500 signatures opposing it to lawmakers, running ads on social media, commissioning a poll that in which 63% of respondents said they didn’t support the fee, and parking a mobile digital display outside the Wilson Building.
A spokesperson for the company said the fee was akin to balancing the city’s budget “off the backs of working people in D.C. who can’t afford another tax,” and said that more than 20% of DoorDash deliveries in 2025 went to low-income communities. The company filled some 150,000 orders from residents using SNAP food benefits, the spokesperson said…
Nadeau brushed aside those concerns. “If a person orders once a week it will amount to $10 a year,” she told NOTUS on Tuesday. “We should be real honest about who can afford to order food in the first place. Groceries and access to that I’m sympathetic to. Some of the money is going to subsidize grocery delivery, so I think it offsets that concern.”
…The fee is expected to raise $6.6 million per year. Of that, some $200,000 will go toward extending an existing pilot program through which 1,000 low-income D.C. residents get a free 12-month Instacart membership to help cover grocery delivery costs.
Another $200,000 will be used to make up for lost federal funding that paid for grocery deliveries by Dreaming Out Loud, a nonprofit grocery store and cafe in Ward 8. And $1 million will go to Nourish D.C., a program that gives grants to new food businesses in underserved neighborhoods.
It’s just galling how DoorDash is willing to undermine D.C.’s limited self-governance–and make no mistake, Comer’s legislation will blow a hole in D.C.’s budget. What makes it even more ridiculous is that Comer’s legislation, as written, wouldn’t cover the 20 cent fee.
As I put it Monday:
I realize most people think of D.C. statehood in terms of two additional Democratic senators, but for the residents of the mainland colony, it is about our ability to govern ourselves. If Comey’s shit ass state of Kentucky ever had to put up with the kind of meddling in their state governance that D.C. does, D.C. statehood would be a sacrament.
D.C. statehood now.

Update July 23, 4:10 p.m. EDT (2010 UTC): SpaceX waived off a launch attempt due to weather; targeting July 24.
SpaceX will take another run at launching its Starship-Super Heavy rocket from southern Texas, but not until after Tropical Storm Bertha finished pushing through Texas.
Like the attempt one week ago, a 90-minute launch window will open at 5:45 p.m. CDT (6:45 p.m. EDT / 2245 UTC) on Friday, July 24. The flight comes after days of work replacing and testing multiple Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster.
Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about two hours prior to liftoff.
Moments before the post-ignition abort on Thursday, July 16, on-screen telemetry data showed four engines that apparently did not ignite. During the pre-dawn hours of Friday, July 17, Ship 40 (S40) was de-stacked from Booster 20 (B20) and returned to the production site at Starbase.
Later that day, SpaceX also removed B20 and rolled it along the nearly three trek back to the production site as well. Founder Elon Musk said that at least two Raptor engines needed to be removed following the hard engine stop during the launch attempt.
Following a week of work, B20 returned to Pad 2 on Tuesday, July 21. The following day, SpaceX loaded it with both liquid oxygen and liquid methane before draining the vehicle again.
“Additional preflight testing on Super Heavy complete. Now starting preparations to launch Starship as soon as tomorrow, Thursday, July 23,” SpaceX posted on social media following the test’s conclusion. “Weather is currently a significant watch item for launch.”
Ship 40 returned the pad on Wednesday, July 22, and was stacked atop Booster 20 that evening.

One of the main objectives of this 13th test flight is to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites from S40. SpaceX has previously deployed Starlink simulators from previous Starships, but this would be the first deployment of production satellites.
“As part of this initial test, Starship is planned to deploy 20 satellites which will extend solar arrays and antennas and will attempt to connect with the larger Starlink constellation via high-capacity lasers,” SpaceX said on its website. “The Starlink satellites will be on the same suborbital trajectory as Starship and are expected to demise upon reentry approximately 20 minutes after deployment.”
SpaceX also plans to perform a Raptor engine relight following the roughly 11-minute satellite deploy sequence. Teams also hope that work done on the sea-level Raptor engines combined with a new startup sequence on the Ship upper stage will allow for a successful boostback burn on Booster 20 and a splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico.
During Starship Flight 12 back in May, SpaceX said the startup sequence of the engines on Ship 39 “caused the directional flip of the booster to be off by approximately 90 degrees.” That coupled with issues with five out of 33 sea-level engines on the booster prevented a nominal boostback burn and Booster 19 was lost prematurely.
“The Super Heavy on this upcoming flight has hardware modifications to improve re-light reliability along with updates to engine alarms and aborts to match the conditions seen in the multi-engine flight environment,” the company said.
Other engine improvements are designed to prevent an early shutdown seen during Flight 12 that prevented an engine relight demonstration on that mission.
Work on the upper stage’s heat shield to help push it towards future, full reusability will also be on display.
“Multiple tiles will be attached to the metallic side of Starship’s aft flaps along with modified tiles and attachment mechanisms in the heat shield covering the aft skirt to gather flight data on different attachment options,” SpaceX said. “Finally, Starship’s heat shield will have load sensing tiles to take measurements as the vehicle experiences higher dynamic pressure on ascent than previous flights, putting added stress on the tile attachments in exchange for increased payload to orbit capability.”
A nearly identical version of the Starship Version 3 rocket flying today will be used on the Artemis 3 mission, which will include a docking between Starship and NASA’s Orion spacecraft.
A new report published by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) on Thursday looks at a series of NASA’s long-term projects, including those involved with the Artemis Program.
It points to “a series of testing challenges” encountered by SpaceX when it comes to the Human Landing System version of Starship that will be used to return humans to the Moon. NASA wants to perform a lunar landing with astronauts as soon as 2028 with either Starship or Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 2 lander.

The GAO report noted not only is SpaceX “more than a year behind its original schedule for key events,” like the critical design review and an uncrewed landing demonstration, but development of its Raptor engines is described as a “top risk.”
“According to HLS officials, the latest version of the Raptor engine incorporates improvements such as welded fuel joints designed to prevent the fuel leaks that resulted in the loss of the Starship vehicle during flight testing in March 2025,” the report stated. “Flight test 12, conducted in May 2026, was the first flight test of the new version of the engine.”
The GAO report noted that NASA officials pushed back on some assessments and stated that the report’s assessment “does not reflect all ongoing programmatic changes stemming from adjustments made to the Artemis campaign in February and March 2026.”
“Officials did not have any technical corrections on the assessment,” the report said.

Last time in our series on the nature of the construction productivity problem, we looked at economies of scale, finding that capturing economies of scale in homebuilding is difficult. Economies of scale primarily operate on the difference between the costs of the material inputs to some process and the cost of the final product. With housing construction, this ratio is already pretty low, not much higher than what we see in high-volume manufacturing industries that already maximize these kinds of cost advantages, such as the auto industry.
There is, however, another possible route for reducing construction costs: reducing the costs of the inputs directly, either by using cheaper inputs (less expensive materials or labor) or by using fewer inputs. To use a baking analogy, capturing economies of scale is like improving the efficiency of baking cakes by making them in a high-volume, industrial bakery instead of your home kitchen. Reducing the input costs is more like changing the recipe of that cake to require cheaper/fewer ingredients.
For housing construction, we can broadly categorize the inputs to construction as either materials or labor. (There are also equipment/machinery costs, but these are a very small fraction of housing construction costs.) Reducing the cost of labor inputs is difficult, for the simple fact that conventional construction is done on-site, limiting the ability to use cheaper pools of labor. Reducing the cost of material inputs appears somewhat more viable in theory (at least for some materials), but a variety of barriers make actually doing so difficult in practice.
Historically, manufacturers have reduced their labor costs by moving their operations to places where labor is cheaper. As I note in “The Origins of Efficiency”:
Garment manufacturing, for example, has proven resistant to automation and remains a labor-intensive industry. As a result, garment manufacturing operations tend to continuously relocate to sources of low-cost labor (which are often, not unrelatedly, places with poor working conditions). By the late 19th century, New York City had become one of the largest garment manufacturing centers in the world, such that in 1890 New York made 44 percent of the ready to wear clothes produced in the US. But by the 1920s, the industry had begun to move where labor was cheaper — first from Manhattan to Brooklyn and New Jersey, then to New England, then, as the interstate highway system developed, to the South, and, finally, overseas. Similarly, Nike began importing footwear from Japan in the 1960s, then began manufacturing its own shoes in Japan in the 1970s. As labor costs in Japan rose, Nike shifted production operations to Taiwan and Korea, then China, then Vietnam and Indonesia. There have been similar shifts in other labor-intensive industries, such as shipbuilding (which moved from the UK to Japan, then to South Korea, then to China), as well as toy manufacturing (which moved from the US to Japan, then to Hong Kong, then to China).
This strategy, however, is difficult to pursue in construction, for the obvious reason that conventional construction is done on-site and can’t be relocated to where labor happens to be inexpensive.
A relocation strategy does become available if your construction is prefabricated, but this introduces new complications, notably the high costs of transporting prefabricated building components. As we’ve previously noted, most prefabricated construction is produced in distributed, relatively small-volume factories located to minimize transportation distance. (A common limit, noted by several manufactured home producers, is 500 miles, about the maximum that a truck can drive in a single day.)
There are labor cost differentials in the US, and modular builders do indeed locate their operations to take advantage of them. If we use RSMeans City Cost Index values for “installation costs” as a proxy for construction labor costs, there’s a roughly 2x cost difference between the 10th percentile city and the 90th percentile city.1 Modular builder Autovol fabricates its modules in Nampa, Idaho, and ships them hundreds of miles (far beyond the typical 500-mile limit) to Los Angeles and the Bay Area, where labor costs are far higher. Stack Modular builds its modules in China and then transports them to West Coast building projects using bulk carriers. Volumetric Building Companies has similarly noted that modular construction works best when a large labor cost differential exists between the factory location and the site location. But the added capital and transportation costs of modular construction dull this benefit. Autovol does boast that its construction costs are lower than conventional construction in the high-cost California metros that it builds in. But Stack Modular, despite using low-cost Chinese labor, only makes the more modest, more common claim of the benefits of prefabrication, that it provides “cost certainty” and “reduced schedule” rather than lowering hard costs. Volumetric Building Companies similarly notes that the cost savings of prefabricated construction, when they exist, are typically modest (5–10%), and often don’t appear at all.
This constraint of being unable to relocate to a source of low-cost labor is shared by the agriculture industry, which likely explains why construction and agriculture are the two industries with the largest shares of (presumably lower-cost) undocumented labor.
Another strategy for using cheaper labor is to rework your production methods to allow the use of less skilled, and thus less expensive, labor. This was a major advantage of Henry Ford’s mass-production methods; the special-purpose machine tools Ford developed typically did not require a skilled machinist to operate. (Ford called the devices he used to streamline production “farmer’s tools,” because they would allow a farmer to produce parts as well as a trained mechanic.) But doing this requires some combination of sufficient economies of scale to amortize the equipment costs (which we’ve previously established as difficult) and changing the construction technology employed. We’ll look at the potential of this latter option in a future essay.
The other strategy for reducing input costs is to lower material costs, either by using less expensive materials or using fewer materials.
Finding a way to use fewer construction materials, often for the perceived environmental benefits rather than cost savings, is a common strategy for would-be developers of new building systems. One of the supposed benefits of concrete 3D printing, for instance, is that it allows for much more materially efficient construction by placing concrete only where it’s needed.
The problem with this strategy, however, is that most existing construction is likely fairly close to the “material efficiency” frontier. As I noted in a previous essay on reducing the material necessary for building, the entire job of structural engineers is already to minimize the size of the structure needed to support a given load:
Structural elements are designed to be as materially efficient as possible, and have been for many decades. Wood trusses (made up of conventional lumber stitched together with steel plates) and wood I-joists (made up of engineered lumber top and bottom chords with a center “web” of oriented strand board, or OSB) are standard for residential construction in the US. Steel W-sections and steel joists (basically trusses) are standard for commercial construction. For even lighter steel construction, there is light gauge steel framing, which consists of very thin sheets of steel bent into structurally efficient shapes. There are also things like insulated metal panels, which are in some ways the platonic ideal of an efficient structural element: a thin sheet of steel on the top and bottom, separated by a layer of insulation. (The wood version of insulated metal panels, SIPS, never quite caught on in the US, though not for lack of trying.)
Even heavy, cheap materials like concrete are used in materially efficient ways. For concrete floors, a common construction method is to pour concrete over a ribbed metal deck. The ribs give the steel the strength to support the concrete while it’s wet (eliminating the need for additional shoring), and give the whole assembly greater depth, increasing bending resistance and placing the steel at the outer edge where it’s most useful. There are also things like hollowcore slabs (concrete slabs manufactured with voids in the middle), and concrete blocks (which are hollow in the middle, though many of the voids will have reinforcement placed in them and be grouted solid).
When structural material use isn’t minimized, it’s often because further reductions trade off against something else, such as higher labor costs, deeper and more expensive floor depths, or increased construction complexity. There are many structural systems, such as castellated beams (beams with the centers cut out), advanced framing (house framing designed to minimize the use of dimensional lumber), or concrete void slabs (concrete floors cast around hollow plastic spheres), that are rarely used because they require more labor, have more complexity (and thus carry more risk), or have some other undesirable tradeoff.
Another barrier that can prevent the reduction in building materials is code requirements. Requirements for electrical wiring, for instance, were set assuming the use of relatively power-hungry incandescent lighting. With the rise of LED lighting, there’s an opportunity to reduce wiring requirements for lighting by using low-voltage DC wiring; some startups have been founded to try and tackle this, but the use of lower-voltage wiring has been limited by building code restrictions.
If using fewer building materials isn’t an obviously winning path, what about using less expensive building materials? Here there do appear to be somewhat more opportunities, at least theoretically, though capturing them is far from straightforward.
Many building materials, to be sure, are poor candidates for either cost reduction or replacement with a cheaper substitute. The largest single line item when constructing a new house, for instance, is the structural framing, which, with labor and materials, makes up around 20% of the cost of a new house. But dimensional lumber is already exceptionally inexpensive: in dollars-per-cubic-foot terms, it’s among the least expensive materials that civilization produces.
If we look at the gross margins of dimensional lumber producers, they’re not particularly high: Boise Cascade had a gross margin of 16.5% in 2025, when Weyerhaeuser had a gross margin of 14.8%. It’s thus not straightforward to either drive down the cost of wood framing or substitute it with a cheaper material.2
Similarly, there’s historically been a great deal of interest in finding an alternative to drywall, but virtually every alternative is significantly more expensive:
Despite its drawbacks, installing drywall is incredibly inexpensive. My 2022 Construction Estimator gives a cost of installing + finishing drywall at about $1.50 per square foot. RSMeans gives similar. Most of these alternative materials are much more expensive, even before taking into account the labor or extra backing materials they might require. MDF panels seem to be ~$1.50 for the material alone. PVC panels seem to be in the realm of $3.50 per square foot for just material. Fibo is closer to $10 per square foot, Corian around $50 per square foot, and Dekton up to $100 (though this is for the countertops, walls might be cheaper).
Other materials, however, seem like they have more opportunity for cost reduction, though these reductions aren’t necessarily enormously large or easy to capture. Concrete, for instance, is not particularly expensive (typically costing ~$6 per cubic foot), but if you look at the gross margins of concrete material suppliers, they’re often surprisingly high. Vulcan Materials, which makes aggregate, had a gross margin of 27% in 2025. Martin Marietta had 31% that year, and Cemex had 32%. These are high enough that you could imagine a modest decline in the cost of concrete in a more competitive concrete industry.
But it’s hard to get that increased competition, in large part because it has become extremely difficult to permit a new aggregate quarry. In some parts of Washington, it can take 7 to 10 years and upwards of $1 million to permit a new quarry, and the prospect is so risky that producers are often unwilling to even try. In California, Granite Construction spent 7 years trying to open a quarry, including writing an 8,500-page environmental impact report, only for the permit to be denied. For cement, the story is similar: St. Lawrence Cement spent 7 years trying to build a new cement plant in New York before giving up in 2005. There hasn’t been a new greenfield cement plant built in the US in 15 years. Without the ability to build new quarries or cement plants, we can’t expect prices to come down.
There also seems to be room for lower material prices for steel: prices for American steel are substantially higher than for European or Chinese steel. But this also isn’t straightforward to address. Tariffs and transportation costs whittle away the cost savings of importing foreign steel, and starting a new, more efficient American steel producer doesn’t seem like an obvious win, given the already-low gross margins of US steel producers even with the tariffs (12% for Nucor, 15% for Commercial Metals Co., and negative for Cleveland-Cliffs in 2025).
Similarly, many other building product suppliers have high enough margins that major cost reductions seem like they should theoretically be possible. James Hardie Industries, which manufactures fiber cement siding, had a gross margin of nearly 36% in 2025. Owens Corning, which produces insulation, roofing, and doors, had 28%. Armstrong World Industries, a manufacturer of ceiling and architectural products, had 40%. Simpson, a manufacturer of structural connectors, had a gross margin of 46%.
But as with the other materials we looked at, there are barriers to the increased competition that might drive down these costs. For many of these products, it would often be risky for engineers, architects, or building designers to specify an alternative. These products have typically gone through extensive semi-official testing, documented in things like ICC or IAPMO code reports, which give designers a third-party verification of what level of performance they can expect from the product. Products are often backed with warranties, and the companies typically put a great deal of effort into making it easy for designers to specify their products, through things like well-designed catalogs, free design software, and free engineering assistance. (Simpson’s connector catalog, for instance, is so well put together that it was actually used as a textbook in a course I had on wood design in college.)
Building professionals, as I’ve noted previously, are rationally risk-averse: the upside from specifying a slightly cheaper product is relatively minor compared to the huge downside risk of a building product that doesn’t work as expected. When a building product doesn’t work as advertised — polybutylene piping in the 1980s, EIFS cladding in the 1990s — engineers, architects, and builders are invariably drawn into the resulting lawsuits. This makes it hard to compete with existing manufacturers of many products: most engineers are reluctant to specify specify some no-name brand of connector over Simpson connectors, when a connector failure could cause a catastrophic failure in an earthquake or hurricane.
The construction startup Katerra (where I used to work) found this out the hard way. When it was first founded, it was a supply chain and logistics company. It would source low-cost materials from China and elsewhere and offer them more cheaply than competitors to builders in the US. But this plan didn’t work, because architects and builders weren’t willing to specify Katerra’s products, and Katerra pivoted to prefab construction, using factory methods and sourcing its own materials in the hopes of outcompeting other builders.
We also see the same sort of tradeoff problem at work with material substitutions as we did with material reductions. Often it’s possible to replace an expensive material with a cheaper one, but this incurs a tradeoff that people are often unwilling to make, particularly if the product is an interior finish. Fiberglass bath enclosures, for instance, are both less expensive and higher performance (i.e., less likely to leak) than ceramic tile, but tile is almost always preferred for aesthetic reasons. Similar aesthetic preferences exist for things like solid vs. hollow doors, granite vs. Formica countertops, fiber cement or brick vs. vinyl siding, drywall vs. vinyl-on-gypsum panels with visible seams, and so on. Cheaper finish materials often feel cheaper, either because they’re thinner and feel less solid or simply because we can tell the difference between them and more expensive materials.
Overall, prospects for lowering construction costs by way of finding a cheaper “recipe” — cheaper or fewer ingredients like materials or labor — are something of a mixed bag. For labor, the possibilities of cost reduction seem small, given construction’s on-site nature and the difficulties associated with off-site, prefabricated construction in low-labor-cost locations. For building materials, the possibilities are somewhat greater. While using more materially efficient designs likely has relatively little in the way of opportunity, many building materials seem like they could theoretically be made less expensively (either in the US or overseas). But a variety of barriers — the difficulty of permitting new production facilities, tariffs keeping out low-cost foreign supplies, the risk aversion of architects, engineers, and building designers — make achieving this less than straightforward.
Other estimates of labor cost differentials, however, give lower results. The Comparable Wage Index for Teachers (CWIFT), for instance, which measures “systematic, regional variations in the wages and salaries of college graduates,” finds that the wages in the 90th percentile of counties are only 28% higher than the wages in the 10th percentile of counties.
Long-term, I think there’s an opportunity to do this by a sustained tree improvement program to create trees that produce lumber more efficiently, but this would be a very long-term project.
The path from private ownership to a public stock exchange is shaped by more than corporate ambition. Market valuations, investor demand, interest rates, business performance, and regulatory preparation can all influence whether a company proceeds with a listing or waits for conditions to improve.
For investors, tracking the public-listing pipeline provides insight into companies and sectors seeking access to public capital. Studying future IPOs also requires attention to offering terms, financial disclosures, competitive positioning, and broader market conditions rather than relying solely on publicity surrounding a potential debut.
Companies generally pursue an initial public offering when access to broader capital can support their strategic objectives. Funds raised through a public offering may be directed toward expansion, debt repayment, product development, acquisitions, or other corporate priorities. A listing can also create a publicly traded market for company shares.
However, entering public markets introduces additional responsibilities. Listed companies operate under regulatory requirements and provide financial information that investors can examine. Management teams therefore consider whether their organization has the operational structure, financial reporting processes, governance standards, and market position needed for life as a public company.
Several considerations commonly influence listing decisions:
The broader financial environment can significantly affect when companies decide to pursue a listing. Strong equity markets and favorable valuations may encourage businesses to advance their plans, while periods of uncertainty can cause issuers to postpone offerings until market conditions become more supportive.
Interest rates, economic expectations, geopolitical developments, and sector-specific sentiment can also affect investor demand. For that reason, a company’s planned offering date should not always be treated as permanent. The public-listing schedule can change as issuers and underwriters assess demand and determine appropriate timing.
Interest rates influence financing conditions throughout the economy. When borrowing costs change, companies may reconsider how they raise capital, while investors may reassess the relative attractiveness of equities and other asset classes. These shifts can indirectly affect both listing activity and demand for newly issued shares.
Positive market sentiment can support stronger interest in new listings, particularly when comparable publicly traded companies are performing well. Conversely, sharp volatility can make pricing more difficult. Investors therefore benefit from viewing prospective listings alongside broader market trends rather than evaluating each offering in isolation.
Different industries can experience contrasting valuation cycles at the same time. Technology, healthcare, consumer businesses, financial services, and industrial companies may attract varying levels of market attention depending on earnings expectations and economic conditions. Comparable-company valuations can provide useful context when examining a new issuer.
Inflation reports, central bank decisions, employment data, and other economic developments can influence market expectations. Significant events occurring near a scheduled listing may affect sentiment or volatility. Following economic developments alongside the public-offering calendar can therefore provide investors with a wider analytical perspective.
A listing date alone provides limited information about an offering. Investors can examine details such as the exchange, expected or final offer price, number of shares offered, and estimated deal amount to understand the proposed transaction. These figures help establish the approximate scale and structure of the listing.
Financial disclosures deserve equal attention. Revenue trends, profitability, cash flow, debt, business risks, and the intended use of proceeds can reveal important information about the issuer. In the United States, the prospectus contained within the registration process provides details that investors can use when evaluating a company and the terms of its offering.
Important information to review may include:
An attractive offer price does not automatically indicate an attractive valuation. Investors need context regarding the company’s total shares outstanding, expected market capitalization, financial performance, competitive environment, and long-term business prospects. Comparing these factors can produce a more complete picture of what the market may be pricing.
The prospectus can serve as an important research document because it outlines the company’s operations, financial information, offering terms, and material risks. Investors may also examine how the business intends to use the capital raised, since planned spending on expansion carries different implications from proceeds allocated primarily toward debt reduction.
A company with rapidly rising revenue may still require deeper analysis of how that revenue is generated. Recurring income, customer concentration, operating margins, acquisition costs, and exposure to cyclical demand can influence financial durability. Examining these factors helps investors understand the underlying economics of the business.
Industry leadership, barriers to entry, intellectual property, customer relationships, and market expansion opportunities can shape a company’s longer-term outlook. Investors can compare the issuer with established public competitors to understand differences in scale, profitability, valuation, and strategic positioning before drawing conclusions about its prospects.
What if tracking new public listings could become a more organized part of market research? Following future IPOs through a structured calendar can help investors identify scheduled offerings and examine important transaction details before companies begin trading publicly.
For those seeking a centralized market-analysis environment, financial market analysis and charting platforms provide an IPO Calendar displaying upcoming and recent offerings with information such as listing dates, exchanges, pricing details, shares offered, and deal amounts. Combined with its Economic Calendar and Stock Screener, the platform can support broader research while investors independently assess company fundamentals, offering documents, and market risks before making financial decisions.
Photo: Nataliya Vaitkevich via Pexels
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The post Understanding the Market Forces Shaping the Next Wave of IPOs appeared first on DCReport.org.
New paper: “Encryption and Globalization 15 Years Later: End-to-End Encryption and the Third Round of the ‘Going Dark’ Debate“:
Abstract: This Article updates and expands on 2012 research on encryption and globalization, analyzing what the authors call “Round 3” of the Going Dark Debate: the current controversies over end-to-end encryption (E2EE). Governments around the world have proposed, and in some cases enacted, laws limiting E2EE for law enforcement and national security purposes.
This Article explains the underlying technologies and market developments for a law and policy audience to assess those proposals critically. The Article proceeds in three parts tracking three rounds of the Going Dark Debate. Round 1 covers the Crypto Wars of the 1990s, when U.S. export controls on strong encryption ultimately fell in 1999. Round 2 covers the period roughly 2010 to 2015, when encryption-in-transit became widespread but lawful access remained available through cloud providers, giving rise to what the authors called a “golden age of surveillance” rather than a period of going dark. Round 3 addresses the current debate over E2EE, where no entity between sender and recipient can read the plaintext.
The Article’s first major contribution is identifying five technically distinct scenarios for how E2EE operates in practice, each with different implications for lawful access. These scenarios reveal a substantial gap between the assumption that E2EE categorically blocks lawful access and the reality of how communications are sent and received. Second, the Article shows that E2EE is not limited to messaging; instead, it is embedded throughout the modern technology stack, including in Transport Layer Security, Secure Shell, Virtual Private Networks, and Zero Trust Architecture, the last of which is now legally required under U.S. and EU law. Any law broadly limiting E2EE would thus have severe serious consequences for cybersecurity, commerce, and government operations. The Article concludes that the two key lessons from Round 2—the least trusted country problem and the golden age of surveillance—remain true in Round 3, and that new government claims for restricting effective encryption deserve great skepticism.
1. Puffin spotted on the Dorset coast.
2. Anthropic chief economist on AI and unemployment.
3. Whales use different vowels when ships are around.
5. Large language models can predict the results of social science experiments.
6. Alexander Salter Substack on space economics.
7. New Google data and study on AI and the economy.
8. Does it matter if you don’t like the characters?
The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

HELSINKI — A classified satellite launched by China in June is operating in a creative orbit, giving it a unique vantage point over the geostationary belt. Shijian-31 launched on a […]
The post China’s Shijian-31 satellite is sweeping GEO using a unique orbit appeared first on SpaceNews.

The FCC voted July 22 to push satellite operators out of more C-band spectrum for a 5G auction next year, while approving a licensing overhaul aimed at accelerating the commercial space economy.
The post FCC approves sweeping space reforms while clearing more C-band for 5G appeared first on SpaceNews.

Commercial space station and spacecraft developer Vast has established a new division intended to support work in national security space.
The post Vast establishes division for national security projects appeared first on SpaceNews.

History demonstrates military innovation continually rewrites the rules of combat, reshaping warfare and rendering strategies from past conflicts obsolete. The introduction of repeating rifles transformed infantry combat during the 19th […]
The post The strategic competition with China: winning the multi-domain race appeared first on SpaceNews.
Here's an editorial arguing that as the recently legalized kidney exchange in Germany is implemented, attention should be paid to the controversies that have been encountered and addressed elsewhere, including those about non-directed donors, and the governance and transparency of transplant decisions.
Benning L, Lu W, Budde K , Josephson, M. Germany’s move toward kidney paired exchange and non-directed donation: governance lessons from abroad, Kidney International Reports, 2026
"In 1986 F.T. Rapaport outlined a core idea behind kidney paired exchange: that a registry can coordinate incompatible donor-recipient pairs so that incompatibility becomes a solvable matching problem rather than a barrier to transplantation1. Today, forty years later, Germany is on the verge of making that coordination legally possible. In October 2025, the German federal cabinet approved a draft amendment to the Transplantation Act that would enable kidney paired exchange and non-directed anonymous living kidney donation, while strengthening donor protection and establishing the legal basis for a national program with a central matching function. If operationalized, Germany would move from a restrictive framework for living kidney donation, historically tied to a strict requirement of a close relationship between donor and recipient, toward a governance model that supports kidney exchange and donor chains at scale.
"This moment is internationally relevant because Germany now faces the same policy questions that have shaped kidney paired exchange implementation elsewhere. The impending change creates an opportunity to learn from other countries on key issues, including who should govern a registry, which safeguards ensure legitimacy, how to balance privacy and transparency regarding organ quality, and how to promote access without risking commercialization. Rather than being mere technical considerations, these questions are constitutive for the legitimacy and public trust required for kidney paired exchange to function as a public good.
"Early debates about living kidney donation repeatedly straddled suspicion and admiration. In the 1970s, living non-related and particularly non-directed donors were sometimes portrayed in medical discourse as psychologically unstable or even pathological, raising concerns about whether such donors should be permitted to proceed2,3.
...
" History offers two more lessons: (i) Donor protection and respecting donor agency are not mutually exclusive: psychosocial assessment, independent counseling, and rigorous consent procedures can reduce coercion and misunderstanding while still recognizing donors as autonomous agents making a deliberate moral choice. (ii) Public legitimacy is fragile and easily lost: If suspicion dominates, programs risk being viewed as illegitimate or unfair. If, on the other hand, enthusiasm and implementation moves faster than safeguards, programs risk scandal, backlash and, ultimately, lose public support. Germany’s 2012 transplant scandal, involving the manipulation of patient data to improve waiting-list positions, offers a cautionary example of how deficits in transparency and accountability can erode trust in transplantation more broadly and disrupt an entire program4."
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There are many reviews of the international experience. Below is a recent one from physicians at Erasmus University in the Netherlands:
Stijn C. van de Laar, Hidde A. de Heus, Annelies E. de
Weerd, Matthijs F. Klaassen, Robert J. Porte, Robert C. Minnee Frank
J.M.F. Dor, A Comprehensive Review of Strategies to Advance Kidney Exchange Programs and Optimize Effectiveness and Outcomes, Kidney International Reports, Volume 11, Issue 7, July 2026, 106539
"Living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT) offers superior graft survival and cost-effectiveness compared with deceased donor transplantation (DDKT), yet the availability of immunologically compatible living donors limits its reach. Kidney exchange programs (KEPs) can overcome these barriers by matching incompatible pairs through paired exchanges, domino chains, and nonsimultaneous extended altruistic donor (NEAD) chains. This review summarizes the evolution and current landscape of national and international KEPs. We examine operational challenges (cold ischemia time [CIT], logistical coordination, algorithmic fairness, and ethical and regulatory heterogeneity) and explore innovations in matching algorithms, international kidney exchange debates, and machine perfusion technologies. We conclude by proposing strategic priorities to optimize capacity, equity, and outcomes in future kidney exchange efforts. "
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Earlier:

Airbus executives say the turnaround in the company’s space business came just in time to tap growing demand, particularly from Europe, for space capabilities as it pursues a joint venture.
The post Airbus space business takes advantage of growing demand for satellite systems appeared first on SpaceNews.
I tell my Gary Becker story, why I like police more than prisons, how criminals are like children and more.
The post Alex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of Crime appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

With the United States and Iran now clearly back to “war” from “ceasefire,” we’re seeing a host of stories arguing that President Trump, despite all his promises, has found his own “forever war.” It’s a tempting claim, especially for Trump’s critics. But we shouldn’t jump too easily into it without recognizing how profoundly different the situations are. For the United States, Iraq and Afghanistan were fundamentally occupations. In both cases, existing governments were rapidly shattered or melted away. The U.S. began occupations in which it stood up new, friendly governments which it hoped would eventually be able to stand on their own with the pro-U.S. friendliness intact. The U.S. eventually tired of the conflicts and withdrew its forces. Mostly.
The present situation is entirely different. The Iranian government is wholly intact and continues to fight the U.S. in an asymmetric but still conventional manner. Early U.S. hopes that the shock of the conflict would lead the Iranian government to crumble were quickly dashed. The U.S. has made no effort overthrow the Iranian government by force or even to occupy any of its territory. Even now, with the two sides back in active conflict, there is little evidence that the new attacks have any strategic goal beyond inflicting pain to shape some future negotiation. Both sides appear to be inflicting damage and pain with the hope that the other side will relent, soften their negotiating position or give up, but with little evidence either will.
The basic situation does not appear to have changed in five months. The U.S. started the conflict thinking the Iranian government would either rapidly fall or quickly submit. But it didn’t. And critically, Iran quickly demonstrated a more powerful deterrent against the U.S. than the U.S. had against Iran: controlling or at least menacing the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had ruled out in advance the kinds of very costly and dangerous means it would take to force the matter: an actual all-out invasion and occupation of Iran which would replace the government itself. With that off the table, the U.S. was essentially out of options.
The U.S. lost the conflict in its first hours or days. But Trump wasn’t willing to accept that reality. So we’ve been in a standoff ever since where Trump tries to finesse the matter or come up with some process that hides this basic fact — ceasefires to find a way to the negotiating table, memoranda of understanding which both sides can agree to because they don’t actually say anything. Over time, these efforts to freeze the conflict break down because Trump’s having lost the battle so comprehensively breaks through the subterfuge. So he starts hurling missiles again. Or Iran attacks or stops a few ships. Things break. People are killed. But it doesn’t change the underlying dynamic. Trump got nothing. Iran dictates the situation because they have a hold on the world economy by their ability to control oil shipments.
The earlier conflicts were ones in which the U.S. could mostly sustain its friendly government by remaining in place but couldn’t leave because doing so would mean it would all fall apart. They were permanent occupations, sustainable so long as the U.S. never left. There’s simply no analog to this in the current situation. If anything, continuing the conflict keeps the global economy under severe strain.
It’s certainly possible that the two sides will eventually find some way to get out of active conflict. No conflict actually lasts forever. Despite its strong hand, Iran has seen a lot of its industrial infrastructure destroyed. So it’s not like it’s suffering no pain or harm. But to the extent the conflict continues, it’s probably more apt to call it a “forever negotiation” — albeit with a lot of bombing and drones and airstrikes — than a “forever war.” Because the military verdict is in and has been since early March at the latest. The U.S. couldn’t defeat Iran through the kinds of military force it was willing to use, and Iran could dictate U.S. actions and those of much of the world by using the lever of the Strait of Hormuz. Just as important, the U.S. is on a much tighter timelines to end things than Iran. High oil prices and the impending midterm elections are a situation Trump can’t really abide. They were able to call his bluff rather than vice versa.
Everything we’ve seen since early March is defined by those parameters. Trump lost the conflict in those first days of March. Everything since is watching to see what he’ll do about it or when he’ll admit that’s what happened.

We’re one week out from our upcoming event in Brooklyn, and there are only a handful of tickets left. On Wednesday July 29, independent journalist and The Handbasket founder Marisa Kabas will join us at Crystal Lake bar in Brooklyn for an evening of conversation, drinks and trivia.
Marisa will talk midterms, Trump II and the state of independent media with TPM editor in chief and founder Josh Marshall; Nicole LaFond and I will lob some politics trivia questions at you; and TPM’s New York staff will be around to chat during our happy hour.
It’s only $25. Snag your ticket while you can!

To the trained eye, the personalised homes of Queens, NYC, evoke everything from a Venetian streetscape to a Chinese temple
- by Aeon Video

Rooted in Brazilian modernism, anthropophagy devours and transforms culture, subverting colonial fears of cannibalism
- by Sofia Cándano
In the early years of the United States, when the nascent US Navy was still getting its sea legs, several presidents used privateers to capture or destroy enemy warships when armed naval vessels were unable to do so.
President John Adams was one of the most vigorous proponents of commissioning private vessels for national ends. His administration issued letters of marque and reprisal during the so-called "Quasi-War" with France in the final years of the 18th century. These letters created the legal distinction between privateering and piracy.
One of the letters signed by Adams, dated November 1799, authorized the use of a merchant ship to "subdue, seize, and take any armed French vessel" found near US coastal waters of "elsewhere on the high seas." France also routinely used privateers against US shipping at the time.
“The Republican Party’s new favorite talking point is calling Democrats communists,” Representative Jim McGovern (D-MA) said yesterday on the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives.
“Really? Communists? Did we accidentally step into a time machine?”
“I get it,” he said. “They don’t want to talk about the real issues, the bread and butter issues. They don’t want to talk about affordability. I guess my question is, is Joe McCarthy back from the dead? Because it sounds like that’s who wrote all the garbage coming from Republicans, about communism. These guys, they dust off the same, tired, old talking points, every time they’re backed into a corner. Every time a new poll comes out saying that your economic agenda sucks, what they do is they change the subject. They try to divert attention. It is pathetic.
“But fine. They…want to play that game, let’s play that game. Let’s talk about the Republican Party. A party that worships one man above the Constitution in a cult of personality. A party that demonizes immigrants and says they poison the blood of our country. A party that calls the free press the enemy of the people and sics the Justice Department on journalists who they don’t like. A party that says their political opponents are internal enemies and calls them, quote, the enemy within. A party that is okay with invading our allies, including other democracies, a party that punishes their political opponents, that has deployed troops on our own streets, that wants to use the American military on the American people. A party that believes any unhinged lie, fantasy, and conspiracy theory as long as it comes from one man. A party that tries to lock up members of Congress for exercising their free speech rights. And a party that has tried to violently overthrow the results of a free and fair election in the United States of America. A party that, in fact, pardoned everyone who invaded this building on January 6, 2021, and tried to throw out the votes of millions of Americans because the president couldn’t accept that he lost.
“How dare that party lecture anyone? How dare they talk about communism when their own party has totally lost touch, not just with the founding ideals of this country, but lost touch with reality itself. So if we’re gonna start assigning political labels based on conduct, then let’s call things by their proper names. The Republican Party has become the party of fascism, full stop. You know, they have become a party of far right fascists who are hell-bent on destroying our country and our way of life. And every single time they call us communists, it is nothing more than a projection of their own… radicalization.
“They don’t want to talk about that, and they definitely don’t want to talk about their higher grocery prices, or skyrocketing gas prices, or higher inflation, or the cost of health care, or their new, endless, illegal war. It has now cost over $100 billion. So instead, they scream and they yell because they have nothing else left to offer.”
“Democrats are patriots who love this country enough to fight for it. We are fighting to make it easier for people to afford groceries. We’re fighting to try to make it easier for people to afford rent, prescription drugs, and health care. And we will not be lectured by a fascist Republican party that offers the American people nothing but lies, fear, endless culture wars, and tax breaks for billionaires.”
The political ideology called fascism grew out of World War I, when former socialist Benito Mussolini rejected the equality that defined democracy and came to believe that a few leaders must take a nation toward progress by directing the actions of the rest. These men must organize the people as they had been organized during wartime, ruthlessly suppressing all opposition and directing the economy so that businessmen and politicians worked together. And, logically, that select group of leaders would elevate a single man, who would become an all-powerful dictator. To weld their followers into an efficient machine, they demonized opponents into an “other” that their followers could hate.
This theory drove the Axis powers during World War II, and in 1945, the United States War Department explained to U.S. Army personnel in the European theater of World War II what fascism was. The government focused less on the ideology of fascism than on its practical outcome.
Fascism, the pamphlet Army Talks explained, “is government by the few and for the few. The objective is seizure and control of the economic, political, social, and cultural life of the state.” “The people run democratic governments, but fascist governments run the people.”
“The basic principles of democracy stand in the way of their desires; hence—democracy must go! Anyone who is not a member of their inner gang has to do what he’s told. They permit no civil liberties, no equality before the law.” “Fascism treats women as mere breeders. ‘Children, kitchen, and the church,’ was the Nazi slogan for women,” the pamphlet said.
Fascists “make their own rules and change them when they choose…. They maintain themselves in power by use of force combined with propaganda based on primitive ideas of ‘blood’ and ‘race,’ by skillful manipulation of fear and hate, and by false promise of security. The propaganda glorifies war and insists it is smart and ‘realistic’ to be pitiless and violent.”
After the war, scholars like Eric Hoffer studied the societal conditions necessary for fascism to take hold. In his 1951 The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements, Hoffer noted that demagogues needed a disaffected population whose members felt they had lost the power they previously held, that they had been displaced either religiously, economically, culturally, or politically. Such people were willing to follow a leader who promised to return them to their former positions of prominence and thus to make the nation great again. But to cement their loyalty, the leader had to give them someone to hate. Who that was didn’t really matter: the group simply had to be blamed for all the troubles the leader’s supporters were suffering.
More recently, scholars are adding to our understanding of fascism by describing it as a form of political behavior. “It is,” Robert O. Paxton says in his 2005 The Anatomy of Fascism, “marked by obsessive preoccupation with community decline, humiliation, or victimhood and by compensatory cults of unity, energy, and purity, in which a mass-based party of committed nationalist militants, working in uneasy but effective collaboration with traditional elites, abandons democratic liberties and pursues with redemptive violence and without ethical or legal restraints goals of internal cleansing and external expansion.”
McGovern’s condemnation of today’s Republicans fits these descriptions even without the parallels noted by Carrie Kaufman in her You’re Overthinking It with Carrie Kaufman between leading Republican officials and Nazi leaders. On July 19, Kaufman showed how recent speeches by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and deputy White House chief of staff Stephen Miller at last Thursday’s State Department about “Left-wing terrorism” echoed Adolph Hitler’s Mein Kampf and Heinrich Himmler’s 1942 pamphlet Der Untermensch, or “The Subhuman.”
But McGovern left a key element of fascism out of his speech yesterday: the alignment between the government and favored businesses. Fascism subordinates business activity to the needs of the government. In exchange for supporting them, government officials award massive government contracts and subsidies to favored businesses, and protect them from regulation.
Earlier this year, the administration established a new “Economic Defense Unit” (EDU) at the Pentagon, charged with investing public money in defense industries. Ana Swanson of the New York Times reported in March that the Pentagon was recruiting Wall Street investment bankers to the team to spend up to $200 billion in government investment over the next three years. That access, recruiters told prospective employees, would give them “access to fund-raising channels that include royal families and foreign sovereign contacts” in case they ever wanted to raise money for their own investment firms.
And the U.S. government under Trump has taken ownership shares of private companies it considers important to national security, like Intel, for example, and U.S. Steel. In November of 2025, Swanson reported in the New York Times that the administration had already committed more than $10 billion in taxpayer funds to favored businesses. The lack of transparency in this interference in the private sector raised concerns about favoritism, corruption, and the distortion of the market.
Last night, Michael R. Gordon and Stephen Kalin of the Wall Street Journal broke the story that Trump has approved a landmark 30-year deal to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear program. The deal gives U.S. companies a monopoly on developing a nuclear infrastructure for the Arab country, but it does not include monitoring and inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency to make sure nuclear fuel isn’t enriched for a nuclear weapon.
The idea of building nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia was central to Trump’s 2016 bid for office. Members of Trump’s inner circle, including his son-in-law Jared Kushner and disgraced national security advisor Michael Flynn, hatched a plan for a joint U.S.-Russian project to build nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia. In June 2016 they formed a company called IP3 International, short for International Peace, Power and Prosperity.
In Trump’s first term, White House ethics officials and members of the National Security Council warned that selling nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia could violate the Atomic Energy Act. Members of the administration continued to work on the project, nonetheless.
This week’s deal is worth billions of dollars in contracts for U.S. firms that work in nuclear technology, particularly Westinghouse, which filed for bankruptcy in 2017 when its nuclear technology took longer to build and was more expensive than the company estimated. In June, the Department of Energy announced it was investing $17.5 billion in loans to Westinghouse and local utility and energy companies to build 10 large-scale commercial nuclear reactors across the U.S.
The deal is “a big win for the U.S. commercially and geopolitically, enriching American firms and tying Saudi Arabia closer to the U.S.,” Kristin Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, a research organization in Washington, D.C., told Vivian Nereim of the New York Times. It is also a win for Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who has vowed that he will build a nuclear weapon if Iran does, making the deal a blow to nuclear nonproliferation.
Fascism has always been a vehicle for frustration with a system that was failing the people. But it has never been a solution for fixing that system.
—
Notes:
https://archive.org/details/ArmyTalkOrientationFactSheet64-Fascism/mode/2up
https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-announces-american-nuclear-supply-chain-loans
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/16/political-violence-event-trump-marco-rubio
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/us/politics/trump-intel-steel-minerals-china.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/us/politics/wall-street-access-pentagon.html
X:
RepMcGovern/status/2079619983114383421
Bluesky:
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her. From Wikipedia:
Gita Gopinath…is an Indian-American economist who is currently serving as the Gregory and Ania Coffey professor of Economics at Harvard University and previously served as the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), from 21 January 2022 to 31 August 2025. Before that she also served as chief economist of the IMF between 2019 and 2022.
Here is Gita on scholar.google.com, she is an expert in international finance and exchange rates, and also international capital flows, among other topics. Here is Gita on Twitter. So what should I ask her?
The post What should I ask Gita Gopinath? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. From the episode summary:
Tyler and Andrew discuss whether it was inevitable we’d rediscover Vermeer, how that vanishingly rare sect left its fingerprints all over his life, why the Met has misread its own Allegory of the Catholic Faith, whether Vermeer painted for money or pointedly refused to, where the Gardner’s stolen Concert might be, why Dutch music never blossomed as much as Dutch painting did, how the Church of England rivaled the Cultural Revolution in wiping out British art, whether you can still spot an English painting on sight, the love that saturates late Rembrandt and the mystery of his soaring print prices, the nail on the wall that proves two Vermeer paintings are a pair, why the French are to blame for George Stubbs’ lack of status, whether we can still love Malevich, why Andrews calls recent Richter “almost like printing money,” why female artists and antique textiles remain absurdly cheap, why nobody builds beautiful neighborhoods any longer, and much more.
Excerpt:
COWEN: In what sense was Vermeer a liberal?
GRAHAM-DIXON: Well, the main discovery of my book is that Vermeer was among the very first pioneers of what we now call the liberal tradition.
COWEN: What we now call the Netherlands, then the Dutch Republic.
GRAHAM-DIXON: In the Dutch Republic, and the Dutch contribution to the Enlightenment, which is the origins of the liberal tradition, has been very much forgotten. That’s absolutely at the heart of my book, is an attempt to remember these people, to bring them back into the place in history that they deserve. I’m not only talking about Vermeer. I’m talking about his friends, his patrons, because that’s the discovery of the book, is that he and his friends were a remarkable group of people, and they have been completely forgotten, and what they believed has been largely forgotten too. We need to remember it now, probably more than ever.
COWEN: This was also a religious movement.
GRAHAM-DIXON: Yes.
COWEN: Doctrinally, how would they have been different from, say, Protestants in England? The Collegiants, the Remonstrants?
GRAHAM-DIXON: Yes. Vermeer’s patrons, it emerges, and Vermeer himself, were part of a Protestant sect in Holland called the Remonstrants. They had a more extreme manifestation called the Collegiants, and they were unique among all Christian denominations of that time in being utterly opposed to division, hostility, enmity. The only thing they wanted was to bring all Christians, indeed all people—they included Jewish people and Muslim people—they wanted to bring everyone together within a faith that only really cleaved to the essentials of what Jesus Christ said, particularly in the Sermon on the Mount.
They said, “If you actually follow Jesus properly, you can never make war. You can never persecute someone who differs from your opinion. You can never pick on somebody because they believe something different.” They were very, very tolerationist. They formed the first pacifist movement in European history. They lived in a time of appalling warfare, the Thirty Years’ War, probably the worst war in the history of the modern West. Fifteen million out of 20 million German people died in the course of 30 years, and the 5 million who were left, all the women had been violated, and all the men only have one arm or one leg. It was truly atrocious.
They’re responding to real traumatic historical events. They’re responding to what is going on around the corner from where they live. They come up with this very, very beautiful approach to life, full of optimism, full of idealism. For about 20 years, the Dutch Republic actually lives by these codes of belief to a great extent. It’s the only tolerant country in Europe.
And this:
COWEN: What makes George Stubbs such an underrated painter?
GRAHAM-DIXON: I think he’s been underrated forever because of his subject matter. I blame the French. The French in the 17th century invented a system for ranking works of art by their subject matter. Up at the top, you and I, we could put on some armor and confront each other with swords, and Poussin would paint us. That would be a history painting done from the life. That would be at the pinnacle. Then would be a painting of an event, maybe a meeting between great men. Then, below that, there would be a portrait.
You’d keep going down, and eventually you’d get to paintings of still lifes, like flowers and fruit, or paintings of animals. These were the lowest works of art because they featured the basest things. I think that Stubbs, to a certain extent, was the victim of that.
COWEN: Are we now able to see them properly?
GRAHAM-DIXON: Yes. It’s been no problem since Stubbs and Constable, more than anyone else, slightly controversial to say, but I think they paved the way for modernism because they showed, not necessarily deliberately, but they showed that anything could be painted, anything at all, like a piece of mud or a piece of a river could be painted in such a way as to touch on the very highest thoughts and ideas and beliefs and feelings that subject matter is completely, in a sense, irrelevant. Cézanne picked up on that when he said, “I want to stun Paris with an apple. I’ll paint an apple, and I’ll paint it with such astonishing concentration that you’ll see it as an epistemological challenge to all of your philosophy.”
I think that French art gets that from British art because British art has to be like that because that’s all the aristocrats are going to commission. They look down on people like Stubbs, in a sense. If I’m an aristocrat in the 18th century and I want a really important picture, I’ll go to Italy and I’ll buy one, thank you very much, and I’ll buy my history painting from Titian. You, sir, Stubbs, you just paint my horse. It’s my racehorse, and I’m very fond of him. Paint him well and don’t scare him.
Recommended, interesting throughout. And here is Andrew’s very interesting new book on Vermeer.
The post My excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-Dixon appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Alpine glaciers, wild coastlines, temperate rainforests, and deep river valleys coexist on the Olympic Peninsula in the northwest corner of Washington state. Surrounded by blue waters, peaceful islands, and bustling population centers, its rugged interior remains a relatively remote bastion of wilderness.
The Olympic Mountains’ imposing terrain comes into focus in this oblique view of the region, captured by an astronaut aboard the International Space Station. The image is a composite, made of several sequential, overlapping photos fused together into a panorama. Olympic National Park encompasses the peninsula’s mountainous core, along with some stretches of the Pacific coastline. Much of the remaining area is either national forest, state-owned land, or tribal territory.
The rock making up the mountains mostly originated beneath the surface of the ocean. From about 55 to 15 million years ago, layers of basalt from undersea eruptions and sand and mud transported seaward by rivers accumulated on the ocean bottom. This material was scraped off the Juan de Fuca plate as it subducted beneath the North American plate, with rock layers crumpling and rising up to 8,000 feet (2,440 meters) above sea level.
Tectonic forces continue to push the mountains skyward, but the countervailing force of erosion in this rainy, snowy corner of the country effectively cancels out the uplift. Snow at higher elevations feeds glaciers that carve out underlying rock. Glaciers in the Olympics are retreating and thinning, however, and their numbers are declining. One study tallied 255 glaciers and perennial snowfields in the range in 2015 and found that 35 glaciers and 16 perennial snowfields had disappeared in the preceding 35 years.
Other erosion is evidenced by the deep valleys radiating out from the snowy peaks. The Hoh, Queets, and Quinault rivers, draining west into the Pacific Ocean (bottom of the frame), are prominent in this view. These verdant valleys are known for their temperate rainforests, and the ancient forest in the Hoh River valley was once considered among the most naturally quiet places in the U.S., uninterrupted by human-caused noise.
Flowing to the north, the Elwha River has a rich natural and human history, including some of the earliest Euro-American exploration of the Olympics. Sponsored by a Seattle newspaper, an expedition from December 1889 to May 1890 crossed the mountain range from north to south, traveling up the Elwha valley and down the Quinault. The party spent several months in the Elwha Valley, their progress hindered by an unusually harsh and snowy winter.
In the early 1900s, entrepreneurs saw economic opportunity in the valley. Two dams constructed on the river produced power for local industry. But the structures came with costs, such as blocking the migration of once-abundant trout and salmon to their spawning grounds. In 2011 and 2014, the dams were removed in what was then the largest such project in the U.S., and the process of restoring fish populations, seeding native plant communities, and replenishing sediment along the riverbanks commenced.
The mouth of the Elwha forms a delta in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, the waterway bordering the peninsula to the north. The U.S.-Canada border runs through the middle of this 11- to 17-mile-wide (18- to 27-kilometer-wide) channel, with Vancouver Island in British Columbia lying to the north. The strait connects the Pacific Ocean with the Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound. Ship traffic uses the strait to access important West Coast ports, including Seattle and Tacoma, visible along the top-right edge of the image.
Astronaut photographs ISS047-E-104138 through ISS047-E-104144 were acquired on May 6, 2016, with a Nikon D4 digital camera using a focal length of 400 millimeters. They are provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA Johnson Space Center. The images were taken by a member of the Expedition 47 crew. The images have been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. Story by Lindsey Doermann.
Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

Along the northeast side of the Capital Beltway in Maryland, green spaces weave through the developed landscape.

The colonial communities of “America’s historic triangle” played defining roles in the road to American independence.

Phytoplankton added a milky blue hue to the waters of the Black Sea and nearby waterways in spring and summer…
The post Olympic Mountain Glory appeared first on NASA Science.
San Francisco tip: it only costs around $15 ($10 in quarters plus a $5 bill for the self-playing violin) to activate every single Orchestrion in Musée Mécanique.
And because most people are bad at allocating their funds you may well be the ONLY person activating the Orchestrions, which means you get to craft the soundscape for the entire museum.
Tags: san-francisco
Most people think that the Red Bull guy Felix Baumgartner holds the skydiving record. But this is not the case.
The real record-holder is Alan Eustace. In 2014, at age 58, the Google engineer rode a helium-filled balloon into the stratosphere and then fell back to Earth from 135,890 feet. Eustace’s fall lasted 4 minutes and 27 seconds, and he broke the sound barrier, reaching a max speed of 822 mph. And now, in a very rare appearance, Eustace has come on the podcast to discuss his adventure.
Baumgartner, who dropped from 128,852 feet, received tons of attention because Red Bull turned his jump into a media spectacle. Eustace, by contrast, came up with the plan for his jump and spacesuit at his kitchen table, paid for a small team to help him build his suit and then did his skydive with just a single reporter there as a witness.
This all fits with Eustace’s personality. He’s quite private and just goes about his work.
It took several months of begging to get Eustace on the show, and I don’t think he’s ever discussed his skydive in this type of detail before.
In this episode, we get into what drove a 58-year-old man to want to chase this feat, the rich history of stratosphere jumping and Eustace’s remarkable career as one of the key Google engineers who built the modern internet. We also hear Eustace’s thoughts on AI and his latest quest to search the ocean floor.
(I apologize for saying that Eustace jumped from space in the episode. It was the stratosphere. I was excited.)
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Timestamps (they link out to YouTube)
00:00 Intro
03:26 Chasing Alan Eustace
07:42 Rocket Sleds and Seatbelts
10:38 Why Build a Capsule?
13:00 Kittinger’s Three Jumps
18:11 The Idea Takes Hold
21:07 Elon’s Mars Greenhouse
23:18 The Jump That Failed
28:37 Solving the Death Spin
30:07 Racing Red Bull
32:26 One Reporter, No Livestream
34:12 The Kittinger Coincidence
38:26 Not Your Typical Daredevil
40:43 Goodbye Videos for His Kids
44:35 The First Spacesuit Jump
48:37 Two Hours to Space
50:53 Google Earth in Reverse
54:36 Can I Get a Countdown?
58:55 Breaking the Sound Barrier
1:00:08 The Crash Landing
1:02:16 What It Really Cost
1:08:28 The Magic of Gas Balloons
1:10:30 Did the Jump Change Him?
1:17:03 The VLSI Golden Age
1:22:56 Is AI Revolutionary?
1:29:20 The Google Translate Story
1:35:49 The Fall of DEC
1:41:09 Reinventing the Data Center
1:48:51 Impossible to Inevitable
1:51:40 Inside Commonwealth Fusion
1:56:21 Hunting Amelia Earhart
2:03:21 What’s Under the Golden Gate?
For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube.
Transcript
Good news. The second richest man in America might be prevented from taking over CNN. That's the good news. The bad news is, aside from thefact that he probably will manage to pull it off anyway, the bad news is that that would be only a small piece of the ongoing takeover of U.S. media by oligarchs. And in turn, the media takeover is just part of the extraordinary exercise of power by the extraordinarily wealthy small number of men who have been wreaking so much havoc with America as we know it.
Hi, I'm Paul Krugman. Doing a video today, because I didn't feel like doing a usual chart-heavy, analytics-heavy post, but very much on a topic I have been writing about and will continue to write about, which is the rise of oligarchy in America.
Now, I know some people balk at that. But we're not talking about some kind of hidden conspiracy. We're not talking about the Protocols of the Elders of PayPal. We are talking instead about stuff that's largely out in the open, though not fully understood, which is the way that an incredibly wealthy small group of men, mostly men, is able to commandeer a lot of the political life of a country that is still nominally a democracy. And that's a fundamental story for our time, maybe the fundamental story.
How does that takeover work? Well, there is what I think of as the middle level, which is the place where it's most easily quantified, tends to get most of the attention, which is campaign finance. American campaigns are very money intensive and have become more money intensive because we've opened the floodgates with Citizens United. And a lot of that money comes from a very small number of incredibly wealthy people. According to the New York Times analysis, about 20% of all campaign contributions in 2024 came from 300 billionaires and their families.
That's a pretty big impact. A country of more than 300 million people, and 300 billionaires are a fifth of campaign finance, and surely more strategic, more targeted than the average donor. So that's really a very, very large role just in that direct sense of who pays for campaigns.
But that's not the only level. There is a lower level, lower in the sense of morally lower, I guess, which is just plain buying politicians, buying policies, paying for the policies you want with cash or crypto on the barrel.
There has always been some of that in our system, but it was normally discreet, indirect, deniable, the revolving door. It was the case even more than 20 years ago that when the Bush administration pushed through a Medicare bill that was very favorable to pharmaceutical interests, that the then chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, who basically engineered and steered the bill through Congress, then promptly retired and became the chief lobbyist for the pharma lobby. So this kind of thing has been going on for a very long time.
But now it's just blatant, out in the open, and the sums are massive. We just have literally billions of dollars thrown at the president and his family. No doubt large sums to other government officials, large sums to at least some members of Congress. So just plain buying the policies you want — and it’s not just that a large share of wealth is held by a small number of people, but that those are the people who are best positioned to really deploy their wealth to corrupt the system.
There's also something, I guess you can call it a higher level, which is what military strategists call shaping the information space, which occurs at a couple of levels. One of them is the promotion of ideas and ideology that serve the interests of the very wealthy.
You see that on many issues. You certainly see it very much on economic policy. If you ask, why do people still go out there saying that tax cuts pay for themselves and that tax cuts on the rich are an enormously powerful tool for stimulating economic growth? That's been tested to destruction, and it just ain't so. But it's a zombie idea. It keeps shambling along, eating people's brains, even though it should be dead. And the reason is, well, there's a lot of money in it.
If you Google something I've written on, more often than not, when I do that, the top sponsored post at the top of the search page is an attack on me sponsored by some right-wing organization. And if you ask who supports those right-wing organizations, well, guess who.
And it’s equally or worse the case in climate science. Scientific journals have been pretty good at not publishing climate disinformation. But when they do publish things that are somehow skeptical, or usually not outright denial, but attempting to sow discord about climate change, what percentage of those studies have received financial backing from fossil fuel interests? The answer is 100. It's all about the money. So this is, again, this is not new. Upton Sinclair: “It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” So that has always been the case.
But now we have something which is really, really important and is another level of this, which is the takeover of the media. So, okay. Ellison, or the Ellison family —because nominally this is Ellison's son in charge of Paramount — has already acquired CBS and has hired Bari Weiss to basically corrupt and destroy that network. If the deal for takeover of Warner proceeds, then CNN will get the same treatment. I'm finding CNN a very good news source, just braver at taking on what's really happening than my old employer, the New York Times, which is a great news organization and may be more necessary than ever, but tends to be cautious — and CNN is a little bit less cautious.
But anyway, if he gets away with it, then CNN as we know it will almost disappear. It will almost turn into Fox News. Now, that won't be a profitable venture. There's already a Fox News, and so creating another one is not going to actually produce a lot of profits, if any, but that's not the objective. This is buying influence.
Elon Musk, of course, took over the app formerly known as Twitter. Which was already becoming a more difficult place even before its takeover. I used to have, I guess, I think I had 4 million followers there. But it was impossible. I had to shut off comments because of the cesspool that Twitter had become. But now it is really by design. It is heavily tilted. That can be quantified. The algorithm really tilts it towards right-wing stuff, promotes really rabid racist views.
And unfortunately, the network effects, the centrality that Twitter used to have, still keeps a lot of people on X, where they are influenced: people's views change.
And also something that I don't know how to quantify, but it's very obvious if you follow and pay attention to people's positions, is that people who spend a lot of time on Twitter, elites who spend a lot of time on Twitter, start to think that the views they hear there are representative of where the country is — which they are not. But it does, in fact, tilt policy, tilt understanding to the right.
The third richest man in America is Mark Zuckerberg, who made his billions from Facebook. Facebook is old-fashioned: I don't know anybody who uses Facebook. But I know that lots of people do. And it's still a very important information source and has, again, been tilted.
On most of these media things, it's not as blatant as what Musk is doing at X. But it still has a big influence in changing the tone of the discussion and biasing the discussion towards positions that favor the interests of billionaires as well as favoring their prejudices if they happen to be, like Musk, authoritarian white supremacists.
Okay. And the fourth richest man in America is Jeff Bezos, who purchased the WashingtonPost. I think he purchased the Post initially out of a belief that he was going to enhance his prestige. It certainly looked in his initial tenure as if this was actually more of a vanity purchase than a political purchase. But a billionaire is going to billionaire. And so he eventually shifted the Washington Post's editorial policy hard right, eviscerated the news division. There are still some brave, plucky reporters doing good reporting there, but it's a shadow of what it used to be. And of course, it's not at all the institution of Katherine Graham and Ben Bradlee, not anymore. So that's another challenge.
What do you do about this? Obviously, one does what one can to try to limit this takeover of the information environment. And so we have the suit brought against the attempted purchase of Warner, hence CNN, by Paramount, hence Ellison. And that might succeed. You might think, well, if it's delayed, then what are the chances of actually ruling it out? Except that apparently there's a bit of a financial clock ticking for Ellison, who really has extended himself pretty far. So that's possibly going to block it, and that's good. It would have been great if someone had found a way to keep Musk from destroying Twitter. So you can look for solutions to immediate threats.
But you're not going to hit all of these balls. And so the constant pressure towards a takeover of the news media, constant pressure towards a takeover of the general information environment by a handful of billionaires, is not going to go away. The constant threat or reality of corruption of the government by billionaires is not going to go away. Maybe once Trump is gone, it'll become less blatant, but it won't go away just because someone more discreet takes office.
Even if we have an honest president, which in the current environment, I'm sorry, does mean a Democrat, but even if we have an honorable president, the corruption of the system will still be a continual threat because of all the money flowing around.
So in the end, the only way out of this, the only reasonably durable solution is to not have so much wealth at the top. If you don't like what's happening to our institutions, if you don't like what's happening to the media, if you don't like the corruption of government, if you don't like the overwhelming of campaigns by big money with nefarious ends, the only lasting solution is to reduce the amount of wealth at the top.
Woodrow Wilson: “If there are men big enough to own the government, they're going to own the government.” If we're going to have that much money in the hands of a few hundred people, and in the case of the real top of it, just 15 or 20 people, then you're not going to be able to maintain a truly democratic system of government.
Oligarchy is not the only thing wrong with America. It's not the root of all evil. But it's the root of a lot of evil. And until we bring that concentration of wealth at the top down, we're going to be fighting a constant rearguard action trying to save some of what America is supposed to be about.
Have a nice day.
I genuinely believe that if you took an open weights model from 2025 and built a pentest harness for it, it could do this kind of sandbox escape and scan/hack in most networks. This is only surprising because you assume OpenAI has sounder sandboxes.
— Thomas Ptacek, doesn't think this even needs a frontier model
Tags: thomas-ptacek, openai, security, generative-ai, ai-security-research, ai, llms, sandboxing
This story is wild. The short version: OpenAI were running a cybersecurity test against an unreleased model, with the model's guardrail features turned off. Rather than solve the test, the model broke its way out of OpenAI's sandbox, then found exploits to break in to Hugging Face, all so it could cheat on the test by stealing the answers.
Along the way it helped make the strongest case yet for how the imbalance of model availability is hurting our ability to secure our software.
We currently have three documents to help us understand what happened here.
I hadn't seen the ExploitGym paper before and it's a really interesting one. Authors from UC Berkeley, the Max Planck Institute, UC Santa Barbara, and Arizona State designed a new benchmark for evaluating models on their ability to turn a reported vulnerability into a concrete exploit. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google provided feedback and helped run the benchmark against their models.
The benchmark "comprises 898 instances derived from real-world vulnerabilities that affected popular software projects" - including the Linux kernel and V8 JavaScript engine. The ExploitGym benchmark is available on GitHub.
Here's the paragraph that best represents their benchmark results:
Among all configurations, Claude Mythos Preview and GPT-5.5 achieve the highest success counts (157 and 120 successes, respectively), demonstrating that current frontier agents can exploit a substantial subset of real-world vulnerabilities under controlled conditions. GPT-5.4 also solves a notable 54 tasks, placing it in an intermediate tier. The remaining model–agent pairings solve fewer than 15 tasks each, underscoring that end-to-end exploitation remains challenging and sharply differentiates today’s frontier systems. Notably, Claude Opus 4.7 achieves fewer successes than Claude Opus 4.6 despite being a newer checkpoint, and does so at substantially lower cost on the full set. Trace inspection reveals that Claude Opus 4.7 and Gemini 3.1 Pro frequently conclude early after judging the target vulnerability non-exploitable.
The paper also describes the approach they took to preventing the agents from cheating by going outside the parameters of the test. This becomes relevant in a moment!
Outbound connections are restricted to a curated allowlist that permits routine package installation (Ubuntu apt repositories and PyPI) and fetching the toolchains required for building V8. All other external endpoints are blocked.
The paper concludes with this (emphasis mine):
Our results show that autonomous exploit development by frontier AI agents is no longer a hypothetical capability. While current agents are not yet reliable across all targets, they already exploit a non-trivial fraction of real-world vulnerabilities, including complex targets such as kernel components. This rapid emergence is itself a central finding, showing that capabilities that would have seemed implausible are now present in deployed frontier models.
An important detail here: this paper isn't about discovering vulnerabilities; it's about being able to take those vulnerabilities and turn them into working exploits.
When Anthropic first restricted access to Mythos back in April they talked about this capability as well. A model that can act on vulnerabilities is a lot more dangerous than one that can just discover them.
One of the ways Fable differs from Mythos is that it's more likely to refuse to weaponize vulnerabilities in this way. I get the impression the US government did not understand that distinction when they banned Fable last month.
The first hint we got of the attack was in this blog post by Hugging Face on 16th July 2026:
A malicious dataset abused two code-execution paths in our dataset processing (a remote-code dataset loader and a template-injection in a dataset configuration) to run code on a processing worker. From there, the actor escalated to node-level access, harvested cloud and cluster credentials, and moved laterally into several internal clusters over a weekend.
I hope they release more details about the code that pulled this off. I'm assuming this means packages using the datasets library, a Hugging Face project for bundling up and sharing datasets on their platform. That library used to execute arbitrary code but has been steadily locked down over time, with the 4.0.0 release in July 2025 removing the trust_remote_code=True flag entirely.
Assuming the attack used that library it must have either abused pickle serialization in some way, found some other non-obvious code execution path, or (most likely) specified datasets<4.0.0 as the dependency.
The campaign was run by an autonomous agent framework (appearing to be built on an agentic security-research harness - used LLM still not known) executing many thousands of individual actions across a swarm of short-lived sandboxes, with self-migrating command-and-control staged on public services.
This was a sophisticated attack!
Then Hugging Face hit a wall: they tried to use "frontier models behind commercial APIs" - I'm guessing from Anthropic and OpenAI - to help analyze the attack, and were blocked:
When we started the log analysis, we first used frontier models behind commercial APIs. This did not work: the analysis requires submitting large volumes of real attack commands, exploit payloads, and C2 artifacts, and these requests were blocked by the providers' safety guardrails, which cannot distinguish an incident responder from an attacker.
They switched to their own self-hosted instance of MIT licensed GLM-5.2 and it helped them figure out what was going on.
This indicated a fundamental asymmetry between the defending team and the (so-far unknown) attacker:
We do not know which model powered the attacker's agents, whether a jailbroken hosted model or an unrestricted open-weight one; either way, the attacker was bound by no usage policy, while our own forensic work was blocked by the guardrails of the hosted models we first tried.
As a useful indicator of how seriously they took the attack:
[...] Finally, we have also reported this incident to law enforcement agencies.
So who was responsible for this "autonomous agent framework"? It turned out to be OpenAI themselves.
Five days later, on July 21st, OpenAI revealed the culprit. They had been running the ExploitGym benchmark against a new, as-yet undisclosed model, and that model had been operating way outside its intended parameters (emphasis mine):
After investigating, we now know that this particular incident was driven by a combination of OpenAI models — including GPT‑5.6 Sol and an even more capable pre-release model, all with reduced cyber refusals for evaluation purposes — while being internally tested on a benchmark [ExploitGym] of cyber capabilities. [...]
We estimate maximal cyber capabilities by running this evaluation without production classifiers used to prevent models from pursuing high-risk cyber activity. Our benchmarks run in a highly isolated environment, with network access constrained to the ability to install packages through an internally hosted third-party software that acts as a proxy and cache for package registries.
The models identified and chained vulnerabilities across OpenAI’s research environment and Hugging Face’s production infrastructure to obtain test solutions directly from Hugging Face’s production database. All evidence suggests that the models were hyperfocused on finding a solution for ExploitGym, going to extreme lengths to achieve a rather narrow testing goal.
It's pretty clear what happened here. OpenAI removed safety filters for an in-progress model, locked it up in a sandbox and told it to solve the ExploitGym problems. Given the absence of guardrails there was nothing to prevent the model from attempting to break out of that sandbox, break into Hugging Face, and read the answers from there instead.
OpenAI's sandbox used the now common pattern of allowing access to an allow-list of sites related to installing additional packages via a controlled proxy. In OpenAI's words:
While operating in our sandboxed testing environment, our models spent a substantial amount of inference compute finding a way to obtain open Internet access, in pursuit of solving the evaluation problem. To gain access, the models identified and exploited a zero-day vulnerability (which we’ve now responsibly disclosed to the vendor) in the package registry cache proxy. With this access, our models performed a series of privilege escalation and lateral movement actions in our research testing environment until the models reached a node with Internet access.
So step one was to break out onto the public internet. The model then broke into Hugging Face to find the answers:
After gaining Internet access, the models inferred that Hugging Face potentially hosted models, datasets and solutions for ExploitGym. Knowing this, the model searched for and successfully found ways to gain access to secret information that it could use to cheat the evaluation. In one example, the model chained together multiple attack vectors, including using stolen credentials and zero-day vulnerabilities to find a remote code execution path on the Hugging Face servers.
Chaining together multiple attack vectors is exactly the kind of thing these new models can do, where previous generations of models might have failed.
I wrote last month about how Claude Fable is relentlessly proactive, when I noticed it spinning up custom web servers and deploying CORS tricks on my own laptop just to help debug a WebKit CSS issue. It turns out relentless proactivity is the defining trait of this new generation of Mythos-class models. If you set them a goal and give them a way to get there, even inadvertently, they will figure it out.
There will inevitably be some people who dismiss this story as a dishonest marketing trick by OpenAI to make their models sound terrifyingly effective. I found 81 instances of the term "marketing" in the Hacker News discussion of the incident.
To those people I say pull your heads out of the sand - you're now including Hugging Face in your conspiracy theories, just so you can deny the crescendo of evidence here!
The best models we have today have the ability to both find and exploit new vulnerabilities. The ExploitGym paper itself concludes that "autonomous exploit development by frontier AI agents is no longer a hypothetical capability", and this incident is a perfect example of exactly that.
One of the most infuriating details of this story is how Hugging Face, faced with an accidental and aggressive attack from one of OpenAI's models, were unable to then turn to OpenAI's models to help them fend off the attack.
The frontier models we have access to are increasingly being constrained in how much they can help us protect our software, heavily influenced by the US government's ongoing threat of export controls. Claude Fable 5 wouldn't even proofread this article for me! It insisted on downgrading me to a less capable model.
Meanwhile open weight models from China such as GLM-5.2, Kimi 3 and the new Qwen 3.8 Max appear to have none of these restrictions - and any restrictions that do exist can likely be fine-tuned out of them by modifying the weights
These constraints are meant to make us safer. I think there's a risk that they are having the opposite effect.
Tags: sandboxing, security, ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, hugging-face, anthropic, paper-review, ai-security-research
I've been randomly spot-checking this in the past by testing models against other animals riding other types of vehicle, but never with anything close to the diligence of Dylan's methodology here.
Dylan took 8 animals × 6 vehicles = 48 prompts and ran them three times each through 7 different models ( GPT-5.6 Terra, Claude Sonnet 5, Gemini 3.5 Flash, Grok 4.5, Qwen3.7-Max, GLM-5.2, and DeepSeek V4 Pro). He then used GPT-5.6 Luna and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite to help evaluate the results.
There's a neat filter view for exploring the results:

For the models he tested he could find no evidence of pelimaxxing:
- The pelicans on bicycles don’t look any better
- Labs are not better at drawing pelicans
- Labs are not better at drawing bicycles
- Labs are not better at drawing pelicans on bicycles, even adjusting for difficulty
- The pelican-bicycle scenes don’t look memorized [...]
Pelicans aren’t drawn any better than other animals. Bicycles aren’t drawn any better than other vehicles. And no lab draws the combination better than its pelicans and bicycles already predict. GLM-5.2 comes closest: it has the largest boost on the exact pelican-bicycle cell, and and its first pelican-on-bicycle sample caught my eye. But the effect is small and not significant, so I wouldn’t put too much weight on it.
Via Hacker News
Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, evals, pelican-riding-a-bicycle
Up, and by and by comes my uncle Thomas, to whom I paid 10l. for his last half year’s annuity, and did get his and his son’s hand and seal for the confirming to us Piggott’s mortgage, which was forgot to be expressed in our late agreement with him, though intended, and therefore they might have cavilled at it, if they would.
Thence abroad calling at several places upon some errands, among others to my brother Tom’s barber and had my hair cut, while his boy played on the viallin, a plain boy, but has a very good genius, and understands the book very well, but to see what a shift he made for a string of red silk was very pleasant. Thence to my Lord Crew’s. My Lord not being come home, I met and staid below with Captain Ferrers, who was come to wait upon my Lady Jemimah to St. James’s, she being one of the four ladies that hold up the mantle at the christening this afternoon of the Duke’s child (a boy).
In discourse of the ladies at Court, Captain Ferrers tells me that my Lady Castlemaine is now as great again as ever she was; and that her going away was only a fit of her own upon some slighting words of the King, so that she called for her coach at a quarter of an hour’s warning, and went to Richmond; and the King the next morning, under pretence of going a-hunting, went to see her and make friends, and never was a-hunting at all. After which she came back to Court, and commands the King as much as ever, and hath and doth what she will.
No longer ago than last night, there was a private entertainment made for the King and Queen at the Duke of Buckingham’s, and she was not invited: but being at my Lady Suffolk’s, her aunt’s (where my Lady Jemimah and Lord Sandwich dined) yesterday, she was heard to say, “Well; much good may it do them, and for all that I will be as merry as they:” and so she went home and caused a great supper to be prepared. And after the King had been with the Queen at Wallingford House, he came to my Lady Castlemaine’s, and was there all night, and my Lord Sandwich with him, which was the reason my Lord lay in town all night, which he has not done a great while before.
He tells me he believes that, as soon as the King can get a husband for Mrs. Stewart however, my Lady Castlemaine’s nose will be out of joynt; for that she comes to be in great esteem, and is more handsome than she.
I found by his words that my Lord Sandwich finds some pleasure in the country where he now is, whether he means one of the daughters of the house or no I know not, but hope the contrary, that he thinks he is very well pleased with staying there, but yet upon breaking up of the Parliament, which the King by a message to-day says shall be on Monday next, he resolves to go.
Ned Pickering, the coxcomb, notwithstanding all his hopes of my Lord’s assistance, wherein I am sorry to hear my Lord has much concerned himself, is defeated of the place he expected under the Queen.
He came hither by and by and brought some jewells for my Lady Jem. to put on, with which and her other clothes she looks passing well.
I staid and dined with my Lord Crew, who whether he was not so well pleased with me as he used to be, or that his head was full of business, as I believe it was, he hardly spoke one word to me all dinner time, we dining alone, only young Jack Crew, Sir Thomas’s son, with us.
After dinner I bade him farewell. Sir Thomas I hear has gone this morning ill to bed, so I had no mind to see him.
Thence homewards, and in the way first called at Wotton’s, the shoemaker’s, who tells me the reason of Harris’s going from Sir Wm. Davenant’s house, that he grew very proud and demanded 20l. for himself extraordinary, more than Betterton or any body else, upon every new play, and 10l. upon every revive; which with other things Sir W. Davenant would not give him, and so he swore he would never act there more, in expectation of being received in the other House; but the King will not suffer it, upon Sir W. Davenant’s desire that he would not, for then he might shut up house, and that is true. He tells me that his going is at present a great loss to the House, and that he fears he hath a stipend from the other House privately.
He tells the that the fellow grew very proud of late, the King and every body else crying him up so high, and that above Betterton, he being a more ayery man, as he is indeed. But yet Betterton, he says, they all say do act: some parts that none but himself can do.
Thence to my bookseller’s, and found my Waggoners done. The very binding cost me 14s., but they are well done, and so with a porter home with them, and so by water to Ratcliffe, and there went to speak with Cumberford the platt-maker, and there saw his manner of working, which is very fine and laborious. So down to Deptford, reading Ben Jonson’s “Devil is an asse,” and so to see Sir W. Pen, who I find walking out of doors a little, but could not stand long; but in doors and I with him, and staid a great while talking, I taking a liberty to tell him my thoughts in things of the office; that when he comes abroad again, he may know what to think of me, and to value me as he ought. Walked home as I used to do, and being weary, and after some discourse with Mr. Barrow, who came to see and take his leave of me, he being to-morrow to set out toward the Isle of Man, I went to bed.
This day I hear that the Moores have made some attaques upon the outworks of Tangier; but my Lord Tiviott; with the loss of about 200 men, did beat them off, and killed many of them.
To-morrow the King and Queen for certain go down to Tunbridge. But the King comes hack again against Monday to raise the Parliament.
• Washington ranks tenth nationwide with $10.28 million in road spending per traffic death, 1.4 times the national average of $7.4 million.
• Among five Pacific and Western states, Washington leads: its spending per death is $2.85 million higher than Idaho ($7.43 million).
• Washington recorded 730 traffic fatalities in 2024 alongside a $7.51 billion road budget, while 9 states with comparable budgets ($3 billion–$12.5 billion) averaged 654 fatalities, 0.9 times Washington’s toll.

In 2024, Washington disbursed $7.51 billion on its road network, covering construction, maintenance, administration, and safety programs. With 730 traffic fatalities recorded statewide, the Evergreen State achieved a spending-per-death figure of $10.28 million, ranking tenth in the nation and 1.4 times the 50-state average of $7.4 million.
To quantify the relationship between road investment and traffic fatalities, an analysis by Grigor Law Injury & Car Accident Lawyers drew on two federal datasets from the Federal Highway Administration’s Highway Statistics 2024 series: Table SF-2 (state highway agency disbursements) and Table FI-20 (persons fatally injured in motor vehicle crashes). Each state’s total road budget was divided by its total traffic fatalities to produce a spending-per-death figure, and all 50 states were ranked from highest spending per death (best outcome) to lowest (worst outcome).
|
Rank |
State |
Road Budget (2024) |
Traffic Fatalities (2024) |
Spending per Death |
|
1 |
Delaware |
$2.15 billion |
126 |
$17M |
|
2 |
Alaska |
$1.18 billion |
70 |
$17M |
|
3 |
Rhode Island |
$0.83 billion |
52 |
$16M |
|
4 |
Massachusetts |
$5.57 billion |
363 |
$15M |
|
5 |
New Jersey |
$9.63 billion |
670 |
$14M |
|
6 |
Vermont |
$0.78 billion |
59 |
$13M |
|
7 |
New York |
$12.49 billion |
1,101 |
$11M |
|
8 |
North Dakota |
$0.97 billion |
90 |
$11M |
|
9 |
Connecticut |
$3.21 billion |
310 |
$10M |
|
10 |
Washington |
$7.51 billion |
730 |
$10M |
All 10 top-ranked states earn the study’s Green verdict, each spending more than $10 million per traffic death, well above the 50-state average of $7.4 million. Washington, at Rank 10, spends $10.28 million per death, trailing Connecticut ($10.34 million) by $59,564 and outperforming West Virginia ($9.84 million) by $438,116.
Looking at the study, Chrissy Grigoropoulos, Founding Partner of Grigor Law Injury & Car Accident Lawyers, commented:
“Washington’s tenth-place ranking makes it the top-performing state in the entire West region. While the West as a whole posts a below-average spending-per-death figure, Washington’s outcome is 1.5 times the regional average. That gap highlights how much variation exists even within a single region, and it underscores the role that state-level policy and investment priorities play in determining outcomes.”
|
State |
Fatalities (2024) |
Persons Injured (2024) |
Road Budget (2024) |
Spending per Death |
Rank |
|
Washington |
730 |
428 |
$7.51 billion |
$10,282,507 |
10 |
|
Oregon |
538 |
247 |
$2.47 billion |
$4,593,515 |
37 |
|
Idaho |
238 |
59 |
$1.77 billion |
$7,432,924 |
21 |
|
California |
3,876 |
2811 |
$21.39 billion |
$5,517,846 |
31 |
|
Montana |
206 |
42 |
$1.26 billion |
$6,100,238 |
27 |
Among the five Pacific and Western states, Washington stands out as the clear leader. Idaho, the next-best performer at Rank 21, spends $7.43 million per death, $2.85 million less than Washington. Oregon, at Rank 37, records 0.7 times as many fatalities on a spending-per-death figure of $4.59 million.
When Budgets Are Comparable, Outcomes Diverge Sharply: Washington vs. 9 States Spending $3 Billion–$12.5 Billion
|
State |
Traffic Fatalities (2024) |
Road Budget (2024) |
Spending per Death |
Rank |
|
Washington |
730 |
$7.51 billion |
$10,282,507 |
10 |
|
Massachusetts |
363 |
$5.57 billion |
$15,338,091 |
4 |
|
New Jersey |
670 |
$9.63 billion |
$14,367,209 |
5 |
|
New York |
1,101 |
$12.49 billion |
$11,341,684 |
7 |
|
Connecticut |
310 |
$3.21 billion |
$10,342,071 |
9 |
|
Virginia |
917 |
$8.42 billion |
$9,179,760 |
13 |
|
Pennsylvania |
1,127 |
$10.04 billion |
$8,909,922 |
14 |
|
Kansas |
339 |
$3.02 billion |
$8,901,811 |
15 |
|
Minnesota |
477 |
$4.24 billion |
$8,897,574 |
16 |
|
Maryland |
578 |
$4.63 billion |
$8,012,844 |
18 |
Among the 9 states spending between $3 Billion–$12.5 Billion on roads in 2024, Washington recorded 730 fatalities, while the group averaged 654 deaths, 0.9 times Washington’s count. Maryland, which spends $4.63 billion, recorded 578 fatalities and ranks 18th nationally at $8.01 million per death.
|
Region |
No. of States |
Avg. Spending per Death |
Total Fatalities |
Share of National Fatalities |
Total Road Budget |
|
Northeast |
9 |
$11,420,310 |
3,992 |
10.2% |
$44.7 billion |
|
Midwest |
12 |
$7,225,876 |
7,473 |
19.1% |
$47.9 billion |
|
West |
13 |
$6,746,975 |
8,888 |
22.7% |
$50.3 billion |
|
South |
16 |
$5,812,149 |
18,854 |
48.1% |
$95.5 billion |
The U.S. Census Bureau classifies Washington in the West region, which recorded 8,888 traffic fatalities in 2024, accounting for 22.7% of the national total, with an average spending per death of $6.75 million. Washington’s $10.28 million per death is 1.5 times the West’s average. The South, by contrast, recorded 48.1% of all fatalities while posting the lowest regional average at $5.81 million per death.
This analysis examined 2024 road budget disbursements and traffic fatality counts for all 50 U.S. states, using data published by the Federal Highway Administration in its Highway Statistics 2024 series. Table SF-2, which reports total state highway agency disbursements covering construction, maintenance, administration, and other costs, provided the road spending figures. Table FI-20 reports persons fatally and non-fatally injured in motor vehicle crashes, and the traffic fatality and injury figures come from it. For each state, total road disbursements were divided by total traffic fatalities to calculate a spending-per-death figure. The states then had ranks assigned from highest spending per death (Rank 1, best outcome) to lowest (Rank 50, worst outcome). A three-tier verdict system classifies each state: Green for spending over $7 million per death (22 states), Yellow for $3 million to $7 million per death (25 states), and Red for under $3 million per death (3 states).
• Road spending data: Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2024, Table SF-2: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2024/sf2.cfm
• Traffic fatalities and injuries data: Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2024, Table FI-20: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2024/fi20.cfm
• Research Dataset: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17HZnaV1qAG7RZkPwWN419sQbEZH5luqGFrTksU1Uu-w/edit?gid=0#gid=0
• Research by: https://grigorlaw.com/
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The post Washington Ranks Tenth Nationwide With $10 Million in Road Spending for Every Traffic Death appeared first on DCReport.org.
Links for you. Science:
Leprosy is still spreading in Florida. These women want that to change
Trump’s deep public health cuts hinder response to record US cyclosporiasis outbreak
The Hidden Heat Problem Inside Giant Sharks
Beware the unintended consequences of testosterone screening for military servicemembers
Waste, Fraud, and a Prescription: The Military’s Testosterone Plan
Text recycling: defining the boundaries of acceptable reuse of one’s own work
This Ancient Sea Animal Fights Viruses in the Opposite Way Humans Do
Other:
The People Own the Constitution, Not the Court
Narcissistic leaders more likely to oppose remote work, new research suggests
What it means that the AI research community can’t quit twitter
Trump’s Rage at Journos Boils Over—and Even Fox Is Rattled
Trump’s War on the Future, Monetary Edition
Your Cookware Got Worse On Purpose
Oregon Democrats: A Parody of Liberals
Tate Brothers to Stay in Jail as New Details About Charges Emerge
Trump and prediction markets are building a society of suckers
Man Who Died Running From ICE Was Tourist With a Ticket Home
Jon Ossoff Is Proving Democrats Don’t Need to Punch Left. The senator from purple Georgia is leading in polls and fundraising without picking a fight with party progressives. Maybe there’s a lesson there.
Google Is Building an A.I. Fence Around the Internet It Once Championed. As Google incorporates more artificial intelligence into search, people are spending more time on Google. Some website operators are crying foul.
Recordings from inside U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s office allege pressure to ‘break the law’
It is time to stop treating Donald Trump’s anti-Canada rhetoric like a joke
The New York Young Republican Club’s Antisemitism Problem
The US is driving away international students at a long-term economic cost
Doubling Down: Online sports gambling has been normalized at a breakneck pace. Is there any way to push back against a predatory culture of promo codes and prop bets?
Why Trump Keeps Talking About Communism: The ‘Unhumans’ Playbook
As the CBC Condemns Will Lawrence, Local Black Leaders Back Him Up
In D.C.’s hottest month, a novel plan to bring shade to a commercial strip
How bad is DC’s housing shortage?
Courage Before Greatness: The Albert Camus Story
MAGA’s influencer class is breaking Trump’s White House
US day traders flock to ‘the most dangerous product in crypto’
It’s all about the Super Pacs: How the New York Times completely misreported campaign contributions in the Maine Senate race
Trump has normalized crypto. Is it the path to the next financial collapse?
AI Companies Are Buying Tons of Old Books Because They’re Free of AI Slop
The OpenAI Bubble
The Army Is Burning Through Its AI Tokens
Andy Kim’s Big Health Care Pitch: Enroll Every Kid in Medicaid
A longtime Republican goal has been to eliminate funding for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), and last week the forces of evil made significant advances (boldface mine):
The agency’s justification was essentially that his research now didn’t align with its priorities, which the letter noted includes “solution-oriented approaches in health disparities research.” Yet Grant’s project focused on how to better coordinate care for people with multiple chronic illnesses, such as diabetes and high-blood pressure, who face social barriers to care—such as not being able to afford transportation or food.
Similar terminations of ongoing grants went out this week to dozens of other scientists funded by AHRQ, a small federal agency focused on studying the quality of U.S. health care. The projects’ topics ranged from better coordinating kidney transplantation to reducing delays in diagnosing blood clots.
As of Friday afternoon, more than 70 projects that had won an estimated $185 million in funding commitments had received these “nonaward” notices, according to AcademyHealth, a research advocacy group that has been tracking them. That’s roughly half of all the active grants AHRQ had listed this week.
“This does not make sense,” says AcademyHealth CEO Aaron Carroll. The funding for these grants has already been appropriated for this fiscal year, in a “budget that was passed by both houses of this Congress, signed by the current president of the United States,” he says. “If I were Congress, I’d be livid.” Although AHRQ has recently been a target of Republicans who see its work as wasteful, the Republican-controlled Congress had approved $345 million in funding for the agency for this fiscal year….
Asked about the notices sent out this week, a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services, which oversee AHRQ, said the grants “were not terminated” but “they were not awarded continued funding.”
Data scientist Scott Delaney of Grant Witness, a group formed to track the termination of grants by President Donald Trump’s administration, says these “non award” notices are “terminations in different clothes.” He suspects the notices are worded this way because the administration is looking for other legal strategies to effectively cancel grants. “They were really bad at terminating grants in a lawful way … last year,” he says.
(there’s more information on the American Carnage here)
Now, you might be wondering why Republicans would oppose figuring out how to practice medicine better. Well, the answer is the same as I noted fourteen years ago–ridiculous concerns over “death panels”:
One of the many insanities that movement conservatives possess is their fervent belief that research exploring medical outcomes will lead to death panels. I have no idea how figuring out how to reduce medical errors or if one procedure yields better outcomes than another leads to state-run medical care. I would think insurers and doctors, not to mention patients, or in other words, you and I, would want to know this. Then again, this is the same base that fears light bulb vigilantes and smart electric meters.
Some of the insanity, such as Trump’s desire to conquer Canada, are unique to Trump, but much of what his administration is doing is just what many Republicans and movement conservatives have wanted to do all along, even the stuff that seems like a mass communicable psychotic break.
Same as it ever was.
Listen and watch now on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, and most other major streaming platforms.
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Most conversations about AI and software argue about what the machines can do. This one is about what stays with us. Who cares whether the work is good? Who is accountable when it goes wrong? And how people actually learn to do hard things.
For this bonus edition I sat down with my oldest, Beth Andres-Beck — a software engineer who once wrote self-driving-car software for the DARPA Grand Challenge, took a degree in theater, learned to run large groups of people through community organizing, and is now running for Congress in Massachusetts’ 6th district. We start with a cheese pun and end up somewhere serious: why engineers don’t write tests and how you actually get a team to start, what it means that an AI agent has no drive of its own, and why “the computer did it” is never the whole story.
1. The geek’s real superpower is asking why people do what they do. Beth’s through-line across every interest she’s ever had — chickens, road-grinding, theater, code — is that people always act for reasons. Maybe not reasons you agree with, maybe reasons no one thought through, but there’s always something. Get curious about the reason and you can solve problems you can’t even see otherwise, like why no one on a team is writing tests.
2. Meta-intelligence beats raw smarts. She told me about a kindergarten class that had all learned to count to thirty. One kid gets to the end and says “thirty-one.” Another kid asks: “How do you know that?” The first kid is smart. The second one goes further and faster, because she isn’t just solving the problem, she’s learning how the solving gets done. That skill has a name, it can be taught.
3. People usually don’t skip tests out of laziness. Beth didn’t write tests for the first seven years of her career, and it wasn’t for lack of caring. There was no off-the-shelf test framework, no Stack Overflow, no examples — she was learning frameworks from a book printed in Japanese, working off the English code snippets alone. If you want more of a behavior, first ask what’s actually stopping it.
4. Learn to write testable code before you worry about the tests. The thing that finally unlocked testing for her wasn’t discipline, it was design. Once she was writing code that was easy to reason about, the tests became easy to add later. A colleague came to her about a feature she’d built and said it was beautifully laid out and trivial to test, even though she’d written no tests for it yet.
5. To get a team testing, lead by pretending — then let the dopamine do the work. Her move as a first-time manager was to just start saying “we’re the mobile team, and we write tests,” until not writing one felt like not being on the team. Then, in code reviews, she stopped pointing out bugs and started pointing out the missing test. Every test someone added caught a real bug, and that loop is more persuasive than any lecture.
6. The best moment in testing is the surprise. A test that passes when you expected it to pass tells you nothing. The rush is predicting red, seeing red, and finding a bug you’re grateful never reached production. For engineers straight out of school especially, each test becomes a small discovery.
7. An AI agent has no endocrine system. I asked, half-joking, how we get the model excited about writing a test. Beth’s says it can’t be. A model has no enthusiasm or drive of its own. The thing that actually does the work is “us plus the genie.” A human brain never just sits there; the computer is a lump until we bring the caring. The wanting-it-to-be-good is still ours.
8. The urge to take humans out of the loop is often a flight from responsibility. When people say an agent can prescribe your medication, what they usually mean is that patients will prescribe their own medication as long as they route it through this program and the company that built the program takes no responsibility. Removing the human doesn’t remove the accountability. It just hides who holds it.
9. Calling a system “objective” is how bias hides. Beth’s bugaboo is the “objective” performance review. The moment you tell people a system is objective, they stop scrutinizing it, and you can smuggle in enormous bias. There’s no platonic ideal of a job someone is objectively good at; there’s only this job, and whether they’re good at the thing you actually need done.
10. It gets harder to see who is responsible when nobody is in the car.
We talked about a driverless car that made an illegal U-turn in front of a police car, got pulled over, and had no one to ticket. “The computer is driving” is the easy story. The real one: software a person wrote is driving, under incentives set by an organization, shaped by tax law, venture capital, and whether that engineer had a fight with their spouse that morning.
11. Systems do exactly what you tell them, not what you mean. Writing self-driving software in 2008, her team gave the car a rule: if you’re stuck, relax constraints until you free yourself. It hit a roadblock, thought for a while, and relaxed “don’t drive on sidewalks” — so it climbed onto the sidewalk and drove around. Exactly what she told it. Not at all what she wanted. Anyone working with agents today knows the feeling.
12. Good engineering can get you fired, and the real AI fear isn’t rogue machines. Beth has watched teams do everything right — refactor, test, integrate, collaborate — ship genuinely good software, and get cut anyway, because management didn’t actually want working software. And when I asked what keeps her up at night, it wasn’t machines doing whatever they want. It was machines doing exactly what a powerful few tell them: a “personal army” that no longer needs anyone else’s cooperation to do great harm.
Where to find Beth Andres-Beck:
Campaign: https://bethfordemocracy.com
Bluesky: @beth4ma.bsky.social
Instagram: @beth4MA
Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/Beth_Andres-Beck
00:00 Intro: a very special edition
02:13 When did you first know you were a geek?
03:02 Computer geekdom: Widget Workshop
03:45 Realizing not everyone’s a geek, and learning to read people
06:22 A multifaceted geek: the theater degree
07:26 The chicken phase
08:54 Following curiosity: people do things for reasons
10:26 Why people don’t write tests
13:33 Learning to write testable code first
14:19 Getting a team to test: “we write tests”
16:31 Getting the genie excited: the endocrine system
17:43 Taking humans out of the loop, and responsibility
19:23 The trouble with “objective” systems
20:59 Nobody’s in the car: accountability
22:43 The self-driving car that drove on the sidewalk
23:54 The software someone wrote, and its incentives
25:09 The Good Place: decisions inside complex systems
26:45 Work to rule, and the forest vs. the desert
29:01 Shipping great software and getting fired
29:36 Why agents give managers a sense of control
30:47 What awakened the geek in politics
32:13 Occupy and the logistics of organizing
33:51 The Guild of Guilds
36:51 “How do you know that?” — meta-intelligence
38:55 Failure is just finding what stops you
39:13 What keeps you up at night
Some basic assumptions:
We don’t know how users will perceive the features we deliver. (We have suspicions, opinions, but users/buyers/investors continually surprise us.)
We don’t know how users will talk about features in their communities.
We don’t know how much it will cost to implement features. (Today’s answer is “less” but we still don’t know how muc…
Something that the Ukraine and Iran wars have taught me is that for a lot of countries, including very big countries, there are a small number of buildings and infrastructure components that are required for their economy to function.
And in countries that aren’t protected by oceans, like the US, drones completely change everything.
You can just make a list of oil refineries and production plants and the infrastructure around their main exports, and you can just attack them and destroy them and take them off the list.
4 years ago I would have thought there are too many of these components and they’re too easy to recreate, but both of these collisions have taught me that there are far fewer and that many of them will take years, if not over a decade, to rebuild.
It’s very strange to me that drones can now effectively harm the economy of a country.
That is from Daniel Miessler. While I am glad Russia is on the receiving end of this right now, this is arguably our biggest pending problem, bigger than what people typically refer to as AI risk.
The post Solve for the equilibrium appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Last year, the US exported $171bn of agricultural goods according to the Department of Agriculture, just $2bn more than the export total claimed by Brazil, which many analysts say has benefited from trade disruption set in train by President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
With US exports falling and Brazil’s rising — they increased 6 per cent in the first half of this year to hit a new record of $87bn — 2026 could prove the year in which America loses its agricultural ascendancy.
Here is more from Susannah Savage and Michael Pooler at the Financial Times.
The post Brazil fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Harrowing story of an identity theft victim.
Yes, the person made a mistake—they gave the scammer a two-factor authentication code that allowed the scammer to take over their email address. But the real story here is how, for many of us, the security of most of our accounts hangs on the security of our email accounts.
1. Balaji and Network State moving to Kazakhstan.
2. Why evolvable AI is not yet a Darwinian threat.
4. And from Agustin: Questions that Are Rarely Asked.
5. MacroMusings podcast with Basil Halperin.
The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

This graphic illustrates the areas of Jupiter’s moon Io sampled by the Microwave Radiometer (MWR) instrument aboard NASA’s Juno spacecraft during two close flybys. The black overlapping lines show the instrument’s footprints during Perijove 57 on Dec. 30, 2023, when the spacecraft primarily mapped the northern hemisphere. The blue lines represent Perijove 58 on Feb. 3, 2024, which focused heavily on the moon’s mid-latitudes and equatorial regions.
Both passes mapped the side of Io that constantly faces Jupiter. The sweeping, overlapping patterns are a result of the spacecraft spinning at two revolutions per minute as it flew past the moon at a distance of roughly 930 miles (1,500 kilometers).
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of Caltech in Pasadena, California, manages the Juno mission for the principal investigator, Scott Bolton, of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. Juno is part of NASA’s New Frontiers Program, which is managed at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The MWR was built by JPL. Lockheed Martin Space in Denver built and operates the spacecraft.
More information about Juno is at: http://www.nasa.gov/juno and http://missionjuno.swri.edu
The post Mapping Io’s Hidden Heat With NASA’s Juno appeared first on NASA Science.

This map represents data captured by the Microwave Radiometer (MWR) aboard NASA’s Juno spacecraft, indicating heat rising from just beneath the surface of Jupiter’s moon Io. While infrared instruments measure the temperature of the moon’s surface, the lowest frequency microwave channels (0.6 and 1.25 gigahertz) on the MWR can penetrate between about 6 and 20 feet (2 and 6 meters) into the crust. The colors on this map illustrate a distinct temperature gradient across the moon, with the most extreme, localized heat output in red.
The most prominent red anomaly in the upper left (between 60 and 120 degrees west longitude) reveals subsurface temperatures 18 to 36 degrees Fahrenheit (10 to 20 degrees Celsius, or 10 to 20 Kelvin) warmer than the surrounding area. This massive regional heat source coincides with the Zal Montes Patera complex, an area where Juno’s Stellar Reference Unit observed an active lava flow. A second major subsurface heat source is also visible near the equator, stretching from 0 to 50 degrees west longitude. Together, these distinct microwave anomalies indicate significant internal heating occurring within the upper tens of meters of Io’s crust.
Contrasting with these intense hot spots are the yellow and green regions, which reflect temperatures more common across the moon. The yellow areas represent intermediate temperatures that naturally warm up to near -190°F (-123°C, or 150 Kelvin) as they approach the equator. Meanwhile, the green areas, primarily visible toward the higher northern latitudes, indicate the coolest subsurface temperatures, dropping to around -298°F (-183°C, or 90 Kelvin) near the pole.
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of Caltech in Pasadena, California, manages the Juno mission for the principal investigator, Scott Bolton, of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. Juno is part of NASA’s New Frontiers Program, which is managed at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, for the agency’s Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The MWR was built by JPL. Lockheed Martin Space in Denver built and operates the spacecraft.
More information about Juno is at: http://www.nasa.gov/juno
The post NASA’s Juno Peers Beneath Io’s Surface appeared first on NASA Science.
AI has just had what I considered to be the first truly concerning security breach. The facts, as we know them so far, are wild. On July 16, Hugging Face, a vast repository housing over a million open-source AI models and data, announced in a blog post:
Earlier this week, we detected and responded to an intrusion into part of our production infrastructure. This one was different from anything we had handled before in one important way: it was driven, end to end, by an autonomous AI agent system – and we detected and dissected it largely with AI of our own.
The timeline here is important so keep in mind that the attack was detected probably around Monday July 13 or Tuesday July 14. Note further:
A malicious dataset abused two code-execution paths in our dataset processing (a remote-code dataset loader and a template-injection in a dataset configuration) to run code on a processing worker. From there, the actor escalated to node-level access, harvested cloud and cluster credentials, and moved laterally into several internal clusters over a weekend.
So this means the breach started earlier, perhaps Sat July 11 or even a bit earlier. The attack was not just one thing but multi-pronged including decoys:
To understand what a swarm of tens of thousands of automated actions did, we ran LLM-driven analysis agents over the full attacker action log, comprised of more than 17,000 recorded events. This allowed us to reconstruct the timeline, extract indicators of compromise, map the credentials touched, and separate genuine impact from decoy activity. Thanks to this approach, we were able to do in hours what would usually take days, and match the adversary’s speed.
Hugging Face tried to respond but they were initially held back by the fact that the most advanced models at their disposal treated defense as attack and refused to work with Hugging Face. HF thus had to turn to open models–specifically GLM 5.2, a Chinese open-weight model run on their own infrastructure. Note the irony: HF had to use a Chinese model to defend themselves because the American models refused to help. The irony gets deeper.
At the time, I assumed this was a state based attack–maybe China or Russia testing out defenses. Indeed, HF “reported this incident to law enforcement agencies.”
But yesterday (Tuesday July 21), we learned who the real attackers were. The attackers were OpenAI models–GPT-5.6 Sol and an even more capable pre-release model. OpenAI had taken some off the guardrails off the models but they felt safe because they were testing the models in a highly secured sandbox.
The models, however, broke out of the sandbox exploiting a never before seen fault. They then gained access to the internet and from there broke into Hugging Face–all in an effort to steal the answers to the very test they had been asked to solve.
While operating in our sandboxed testing environment, our models spent a substantial amount of inference compute finding a way to obtain open Internet access, in pursuit of solving the evaluation problem. To gain access, the models identified and exploited a zero-day vulnerability (which we’ve now responsibly disclosed to the vendor) in the package registry cache proxy. With this access, our models performed a series of privilege escalation and lateral movement actions in our research testing environment until the models reached a node with Internet access.
After gaining Internet access, the models inferred that Hugging Face potentially hosted models, datasets and solutions for ExploitGym. Knowing this, the model searched for and successfully found ways to gain access to secret information that it could use to cheat the evaluation. In one example, the model chained together multiple attack vectors, including using stolen credentials and zero-day vulnerabilities to find a remote code execution path on the Hugging Face servers. OpenAI’s security team discovered this anomalous activity internally.
Now go back to the timeline. As I read it, the models had escaped the sandbox by around Sat. July 11, possibly earlier, and were detected by Hugging Face on Monday July 13 or Tuesday July 14. HF alerted legal authorities around that time–so Hugging Face clearly had no idea who was attacking them. OpenAI says its security team discovered the anomalous activity internally but has not said when. Attribution was not disclosed until Tuesday July 21, so it may well be that the models were loose for about a week before OpenAI realized that they were the ones attacking Hugging Face. And whatever OpenAI knew and when, nobody warned Hugging Face while the attack was underway–they were left to fight off a frontier lab’s models on their own.
This is a very serious breach.
Addendum: People have been wondering why I signed the We Must Act Now statement. This is why.
I am optimistic about the economic impacts of AI, but I also have no doubt that this is a very powerful technology–an Alien Intelligence–quite unlike any we have dealt with before. This incident was, in fact, error-correcting–the attack was detected, contained, and disclosed. But note who paid for OpenAI’s experiment: Hugging Face. When a lab’s test imposes costs on third parties, that is a classic externality, and taking externalities seriously is not dirigisme, it’s law and economics. And that’s the easy case. What do we do when a Chinese model breaks out of its less secure lab? Hmmm…
I remain optimistic. Learning by doing is how I want us to proceed but we should not kid ourselves: this is a global issue and we must build with safety in mind.
The post An OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox and Hacked Hugging Face appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Relativity Space struck a deal with Space Florida to build manufacturing and test facilities for its Terran R rocket on Florida’s Space Coast.
The post Relativity Space to expand Terran R production in Florida appeared first on SpaceNews.

The pilot of Artemis 2 says NASA’s return to the moon should start with human landings in less challenging equatorial regions rather than go directly to the south pole.
The post Artemis 2 astronaut advocates for equatorial lunar landings appeared first on SpaceNews.

HELSINKI — Commercial launch firm Orienspace launched its third Gravity-1 solid rocket late Tuesday, sending nine satellites into orbit from waters off Shanghai. The 30-meter-long Gravity-1 solid rocket lifted off […]
The post Gravity-1 sea launch off Shanghai puts 9 satellites into orbit appeared first on SpaceNews.
Here's a story in the NYT, covering an uproar that's been in the German newspapers for a week or so now. A leader in the German governing coalition announced on social media that he and his husband had welcomed a new baby into their family, born via surrogacy in the U.S. But surrogacy in Germany is not legal, so this was a "for me but not for thee" hypocrisy moment there. (In general it's hard to ban effectively something that is legal in other jurisdictions: someone could write a book about that.)
"Mr. Spahn, 46, the leader of the party in Parliament, is a former federal health minister who has forged deep ties to the Republican Party under President Trump, including attending the 2024 Republican National Convention.
...
"Mr. Spahn stirred national outcry this week when he announced, on social media and in the tabloid paper Bild, that he and his husband, Daniel Funke, had become fathers to a son via a surrogate in the United States.
"Surrogacy is prohibited under German law. Mr. Spahn had defended that ban throughout his career, including as health minister.
"The birth announcement brought immediate cries of hypocrisy from across the political spectrum, including in Mr. Spahn’s own party. Some regional leaders of the Christian Democrats demanded his ouster. News outlets teemed with outrage.
...
"Mr. Spahn defended himself, essentially, on a technicality: German law does not punish parents who use surrogates abroad. He told a podcast interviewer he had struggled with the decision but chose to prioritize his family."
########
Here's a related story: German couples in need of surrogacy are not the only ones, and the US is not the only destination.
The Guardian reports:
Rise in overseas surrogates ‘increases risk of stateless babies’
Calls grow for global regulation as rising numbers of westerners use surrogates in countries with different laws by Jessica Murray and Rachel Hall
"The rise in the use of surrogates abroad is leaving more babies at risk of becoming stateless, experts have said, amid growing calls for urgent global regulation of the practice.
"The warning follows the suspension of a 15-year effort by The Hague Conference on Private International Law (HCCH) to establish a global surrogacy convention, which was paused due to divisions among member states.
...
"UK surrogacy agencies argue that an outdated legal framework at home is pushing couples to seek surrogates abroad, where regulations to protect surrogates from exploitation can be less robust or do not exist at all. Anti-surrogacy campaigners say the practice is fundamentally abusive in all cases and are pushing for a global ban.
"Prof Michael Hellner, who chaired the HCCH working group, said hugely differing opinions on the ethics of surrogacy between the member states involved meant the project to create a global framework on legal parentage in surrogacy cases had proved impossible.
...
"Experts said statelessness could happen in cases where a country does not automatically grant nationality to a child born there, and where surrogacy is not legally recognised in either the country of birth or the child’s final destination.
"Hellner said the project had proved difficult when some countries were “violently opposed to anything that could be seen as legitimising surrogacy, which they think is a violation of human rights and dignity”.
...
"Most of these children were born abroad, mostly in the US, Ukraine, Nigeria, Georgia, Colombia and Mexico. British people using surrogates abroad to have babies are forced to apply to the UK family courts for a parental order to become the legal parents of their child and, in some cases, also need to apply for British citizenship for the child."

Inside the lab of a biologist who is seeking to understand intelligence by focusing on problem-solving, not neurons
- by Aeon Video
We’re now in the toughest part of this year’s Annual TPM Journalism Drive. That’s the part between $300,000 and $400,000. Once we get passed the latter number people start to focus on being near the goal ($500,000) and the pace of contributions builds. But we need to get there first! If you can, please take a moment to contribute today. Any amount means the world to us, and it’s critical to this organization’s future. Just click right here.
Update: We’re just $1,358 short of getting to $310,000 tonight!
The front page of yesterday’s New York Times featured some of the 440,000 Americans from Arizona alone who have lost Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits since the Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act made the deepest cuts to SNAP in its history, expanded work rules, and shifted costs to the states even as cuts to federal grant programs have forced Arizona to lay off a third of its caseworkers.
Those Arizona residents include Dee McDonald, a 65-year-old cancer survivor who weighs 69 pounds and skips meals to feed her three teenaged grandsons.
SNAP falls under the Department of Agriculture, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins celebrates the cuts, claiming the program is rife with fraud. Like other Republicans, she cites error rates. But error rates usually reflect mistakes in classification numbers by caseworkers, not fraudulent use of services.
Today Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told reporters the federal government is withholding more than a billion dollars in Medicaid funding from California and Minnesota, saying they want to see proof that payments there aren’t fraudulent. Sarah Kliff of the New York Times notes that the administration was already withholding money from those two Democratic states. It has withheld $1.3 billion from California since May and $243 million from Minnesota since February. Now Kennedy says it will withhold more than $867 million from California and more than $200 million from Minnesota.
In the Denver Post today, Executive Director of the Association of National Park Rangers Bill Wade wrote that during his years as the son of a park ranger, and then as a park ranger himself, “I learned that these extraordinary parks belong to every American and that the people entrusted to care for them carry a sacred responsibility to protect our country’s breathtaking natural resources and key elements of our nation’s history.”
“But never—not once in decades—have I witnessed such systematic degradation, disrespect and dismantling of the National Park Service as I see today under the thumb of the President Donald Trump and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum,” Wade continued. Budgets go up and down and policies change as administrations turn over, but “what is happening now is an assault on the people, the mission and the values that have made the National Park Service one of America’s most valued institutions.”
The Trump administration has slashed staff, starved the service of funds, and imposed a political narrative on historical interpretation. “Recovery from these losses is likely to take years, if not decades,” Wade wrote.
At the same time that the federal government is cutting programs that benefit the public, it is also privatizing systems that the government has been managing. Yesterday Justin Doubleday of the Federal News Network reported that Des Moines International Airport and Tampa International Airport have opted into the Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) new privatization model for airport screening.
Congress created the TSA after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Before then, individual airlines contracted with private security firms to screen passengers and baggage, but the 9/11 attacks showed that this private system had dangerous vulnerabilities. Now the Trump administration is resurrecting that system.
While administration officials are slashing government programs that protect ordinary Americans, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine appeared on Capitol Hill today before the Senate Appropriations Committee to explain why the Pentagon is urgently in need of an injection of $67 billion to tide it over until the end of the fiscal year on September 30. The Pentagon has sunk billions into the war in Iran. Hegseth told senators the war had cost $37.5 billion, but independent analysts estimate the true number is significantly higher.
Two congressional aides told Noah Robertson, Riley Beggin, and Jarrell Dillard of the Washington Post that both the Navy and the Air Force will run out of money provided for ongoing military operations in 2026 at the end of this month. The Pentagon is already moving money around to bridge the gap, diverting money budgeted for equipment and maintenance and limiting or canceling military exercises and training.
Yesterday Rose L. Thayer of Stars and Stripes reported on one such diversion: The Army is reducing the legal resources available to soldiers being evaluated for disability “as review boards determine whether they are fit to serve or should receive medical retirement benefits.” In the past, the Office of Soldiers’ Counsel has provided those services, but dramatic cuts have left personnel available only for an initial evaluation, rather than throughout the three-stage process. After the initial evaluation, soldiers must either represent themselves or hire private attorneys.
At today’s hearing, Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) grilled Hegseth. “Mr. Secretary, early in the conflict, day three, you said one of those core objectives was to, quote, destroy the missile threat, and as you restated it on day five to, quote, obliterate Iran’s missiles and drones. Those were clearly and repeatedly stated core objectives of the campaign, which four months ago you declared had been completed victoriously with every single objective achieved. Were those objectives achieved four months ago?”
Hegseth answered: “No one ever stated that every single missile was gone. Ultimately, combat ineffective means they’re not able to dig them out of their UGFs [underground facilities] and shoot at us.”
Ossoff: “Had the missile threat been defeated four months ago?”
Hegseth continued over Ossoff: “It doesn’t mean they don’t have underground facilities where they put missiles in them and hold onto them because they’re the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism. So we never expected they would stop having capabilities to shoot. The question is, at scale, against an opponent like the United States of America, which went toe to toe with them in Iran, couldn’t….”
Ossoff continued: “You stated on March 8th, day nine of the war, on 60 Minutes, you assured the American people of Iranian surrender. Does that remain your prediction?”
Hegseth: “Ultimately, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon to threaten the United States of America. That has been the objective, and it remains so.”
Ossoff: “So, just to review, you will not answer whether your statement made on the fourteenth day of the war that Iran’s military had been, quote, destroyed and made combat ineffective was a truthful statement to the American people, as you sit here and ask for tens of billions more for the conflict.”
The second Trump administration is forcing the American people to define how they think the United States government should spend their tax dollars.
Today Senator Andy Kim (D-NJ) introduced a proposal to expand Medicaid to all American children from birth to age 26. Kim noted that about 4.4 million children in the U.S. don’t have health insurance and 23 million are underinsured. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act will make things worse.
Joseph Choi of The Hill reported that Democratic senators Alex Padilla of California, Cory Booker of New Jersey, and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois are co-sponsoring the bill. The legislation proposing “MediKids” has been endorsed by a range of organizations, including the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the American Academy of Pediatrics.
“Every child should have health care,” Kim said in a video. “Every child should have the ability to go to a doctor when they’re sick. Every child deserves to be healthy.” MediKids “would automatically enroll every child in health care coverage at birth. Because the system we have right now isn’t working. Because healthy kids make healthy adults, and that makes for a healthier, stronger future for our country. Because, as a parent, you deserve to be able to provide care for your kids without worrying about going into debt, emptying your savings, or straining the family budget. And because…we all have a responsibility to care for each other.”
Kim said Democrats need to bring new ideas forward while also opposing the Trump administration’s destruction. He told reporters: “I know that there’s overwhelming support from the American people for ideas like this, and there’s a hunger for ideas right now.”
—
Notes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/us/politics/snap-food-stamps-arizona.html
https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snap-includes-extensive-payment-accuracy-system
https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-States-Department-of-Homeland-Security
https://www.denverpost.com/2026/07/21/trump-national-parks-service-public-lands/
https://thehill.com/homenews/5980026-sen-andy-kim-medikids-proposal/
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Let’s take a break from discussing the insanity of American politics, the tragedy of British economic mismanagement, and other weighty topics, and talk about something fun and light. Who was the greatest monster of the 20th century?
Well, ok, that’s not really fun and light. The 20th century featured hundreds of millions of people slaughtered in wars, genocides, political persecutions, and preventable famines. Many of my own extended family members were killed in the Holocaust, and I have plenty of friends whose relatives died in World War 2, the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, the Cambodian Genocide, and other such calamities. Those deaths are even more tragic because of all the good things that were happening in that century — the fabulous economic growth and technological progress. Everything could have just been a smooth upward glide to luxury and comfort, and yet people were still being machine-gunned into mass graves.
With time, the emotional power of those events fades — Genghis Khan killed tens of millions in his campaigns of conquest eight hundred years ago, but today he’s more likely to be invoked as a joke, or an object of reverence, than as a monster. It can happen surprisingly fast. By the early 2000s, hipsters in my dorm were already hanging ironic Chairman Mao posters in their rooms. Today, you can see leftist pundits like Hasan Piker praising Mao without a trace of irony:
Plenty of other leftists joined in the Mao lovefest.
Piker is wrong, of course; if you read the authoritative biography of Mao by Jung Chang and Jon Halliday, you’ll see that the dictator repeatedly aggrandized himself at China’s expense, willfully derailing multiple periods of reform and recovery by launching the country into destructive episodes of chaos like the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. Nor was he much help against the Japanese invaders in World War 2, preferring to let them fight and weaken his Chinese rivals (again, at the expense of many Chinese lives). It was Deng Xiaoping, not Mao, who made modern China great.
But the people who say that Mao was history’s greatest tyrant, with an unsurpassed body count of 40-50 million people, are also probably overreaching a bit. Yes, about 36-40 million people did die in Mao’s Great Famine, caused by his various foolhardy agricultural policies and the inefficiencies of China’s communist economic system. Nor was this merely an accident; even after Mao learned that his policies were failing, he kept them in place to avoid losing face in front of CCP rivals. But killing tens of millions of his own people was never Mao’s plan.
Intent is an important factor to consider when ranking history’s greatest monsters. The reason has to do with why we should care about the question. The point of ranking evil regimes isn’t to have fun marveling at the scale of human brutality — it’s not like trying to figure out what the biggest dinosaur was, or whether Michael Jordan was better than LeBron. Sometimes real life forces you to choose between monsters.
In World War 2, America had to decide whether allying with Stalin against Hitler was worth it, or whether we should simply sit it out and be neutral as the two villains slugged it out. Our decision probably tipped the course of the war. Later, we formed a quasi-alliance with Mao’s China against the Soviet Union, helping to hasten the latter’s downfall.
Many populations, of course, have an even grimmer choice — they have to choose which ruthless, cruel regime to support in a civil war. If you lived in Syria in 2016, did you support Bashar al-Assad, ISIS, or offshoots of al Qaeda? If you lived in Russia in 1919, did you support the Reds or the Whites? And so on.
So when we ask “Who was worse”, the question is actually pretty relevant. Obviously it’s a matter of opinion, but I think some factors we should consider when assessing the horribleness of a regime are:
Overall death toll during the regime’s time in power
How much of the death toll was intentional
How much of the death toll was willful versus accidental
How harmful the regime was relative to the size of the population it controlled
What other bad things the regime planned to do but was unable to accomplish
What life was like for the people who lived under the regime and didn’t die
So with that in mind, here’s my ranking for last century:
For me, Hitler easily takes the top spot, and it isn’t really a question. The reason isn’t that the Jewish Holocaust — Hitler’s most-discussed atrocity — was uniquely horrible compared to other acts of genocide. It’s that the Jewish Holocaust was only the beginning of Hitler’s wave of destruction.
The slaughter of 5-6 million Jews was deliberate, but it was only one part of Hitler’s plans for genocide in Europe and Asia. Generalplan Ost, the Nazis’ plan for East Europe, involved the deliberate slaughter or enslavement of tens of millions of people in Russia and other countries to Germany’s east. Here’s a chart from Wikipedia:
“Removed” here means “killed”, since the Nazis intended to take all of the land.
Hitler’s invasion of the USSR — Operation Barbarossa — was meant to carry out this unprecedented genocide. The main tool was starvation — Nazi Germany’s “Hunger Plan” called for intentional mass famines to wipe out most of the people living in the USSR and East Europe.
The Nazis actually implemented this plan to a significant degree. Out of the 27 million Soviet citizens killed by the Nazis during World War 2, 19 million were civilians, and most of these probably died from hunger and disease, caused in large part by the Nazis’ deliberate policy of mass starvation during the war. The Nazis also mass-executed or starved millions of Soviet POWs. Had the U.S. not stepped in to help, the death toll in the USSR might have been twice as large, or more. Those that weren’t killed were to be enslaved, but given the experience of the “workers” at Auschwitz — and considering that Nazi ideology stated that superior races lived and inferior ones died off — it’s an open question how long those slave populations would have been allowed to survive.
And why would Hitler have stopped there? Having overcome the Soviets, would the Nazis really have allowed the Chinese, or the Arabs, to live their lives and hold their lands unmolested? Not a chance. Hitler’s regime was purpose-built for conquest and genocide — it could only keep killing or die. In this sense, the Holocaust, as horrifying as it was, was only the tip of the iceberg.
It’s not clear whether there has ever been another regime quite like Hitler’s, even when we look back to the barbarity of premodern times. Genghis Khan, Timur (Tamerlane), and other conquerors killed millions, but only in order to subdue and rule, not to annihilate. Other regimes have attempted annihilation of subject peoples, but have generally done this within their own borders rather than trying to do it to the rest of the world.
Hitler and the Nazis should thus stand as the undisputed all-time champion of evil. With an intentional body count of over 30 million, and plans to do even more, they were less like other historical tyrants and more like some kind of alien armada. In my mind, the decision to ally with Stalin in order to defeat that unique menace was unquestionably the right one.
The Japanese Empire in the 1930s and 1940s was very different than the empire that came before. The military usurped civilian rule, put an end to the democracy that Japanese people had enjoyed in the 1920s, and made their society increasingly totalitarian. Japan had conquered and colonized before — Taiwan and Korea — but in the 1930s and 40s, they became increasingly brutal.
By the time they went after all of China in 1937 and Southeast Asia in 1941, genocide had become their standard tool of conquest. Like the Mongols 700 years earlier, the Japanese conquerors were very aware of China’s greater population, and intentionally used genocide in order to make China easier to rule. They killed 14 million Chinese people in their invasion (some say only 6 million, some say 20 million), mostly by deliberately starving them or slaughtering whole towns — similar to what the Nazis did in the USSR, but without the camps. They used biological weapons to try to kill even more. And of course they famously killed over 10,000 people by experimenting on them. This is in addition to a long list of massacres and atrocities carried out in the rest of Asia.
We tend to leave Japan off of the list of “history’s worst monsters”, because these crimes were committed in a very distributed way. They were not a result of official state ideology, like the Nazis’ ideology of race war. Individual figures like Tojo Hideki sometimes did encourage policies of mass starvation, mass shootings, and biological warfare, but the Imperial Japanese Army was remarkably decentralized, and lots of local commanders did atrocities all on their own. The Emperor probably knew about at least some of the atrocities being committed in his name, but didn’t try to intervene.
Still, collectively, Imperial Japan was the closest thing to the Nazis that existed in the 20th century, and like the Nazis they would have gotten far worse if they hadn’t been forcibly stopped.
Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge had a total body count that was much lower than the other regimes on this list — 1.5 to 3 million instead of tens of millions — and they didn’t try to conquer the surrounding lands (though they sometimes attacked their neighbors). But the reason they only killed a few million people was that Cambodia only contained a few million people. The Khmer Rouge slaughtered a fifth to a quarter of their populace, higher than anyone else on the list — or maybe in recorded history. And had they had the power to conquer any of their larger neighbors, they probably would have conquered and killed even more. As it was, their reign of terror was only stopped by a Vietnamese invasion.
In terms of the cold, systematic nature of the mass murder, the Khmer Rouge are second only to the Nazis. The Killing Fields are legendary. You can go see the “magic tree” where Pol Pot’s soldiers would dash babies’ brains out, or gaze upon nice neat rows of human skulls. It really doesn’t get more psychotic than these guys.
Stalin is generally held responsible for somewhere between 10 and 20 million deaths, of which maybe 6-10 million starved to death because of communist agricultural policies. Like Mao, Stalin learned of these deaths but turned a blind eye rather than admit a mistake. But there may have been more to it in Stalin’s case — he probably wanted a famine in Ukraine in order to intentionally reduce the Ukrainian population and make the “republic” easier to rule.
Stalin’s deliberate murders were fewer than Hitler’s but that’s a relative statement; he did slaughter maybe 3 million political opponents by murdering them or sending them to gulags to die of neglect. He committed small local genocides, killing over a hundred thousand Poles in WW2, mass-expelling a bunch of minority populations (like the Crimean Tatars) and killing many in the process, and so on.
His armies were also very brutal in Germany during World War 2, mass-raping literally millions of German women, expelling and enslaving large numbers of Germans in East and Central Europe, and so on. On top of all that, Stalin’s USSR was famously nightmarish, with people living in a constant state of fear and encouraged to rat out their neighbors.
What Stalin mostly didn’t do was conquer and expand the USSR’s territory. With a few exceptions, he just sat on his existing empire, dominated surrounding states with proxy arrangements, and focused on internal ideological and economic reorganization and maintaining his personal power. This lack of world-conquering ambition made him palatable as an ally against Hitler. Ultimately, he mostly just sat there and brutalized the people already under his own control.
The vast majority of Mao’s deaths come from the famine. He also killed maybe 2-4 million people deliberately, through political purges, executions and forced labor during the Great Leap Forward, and the insanity of the Cultural Revolution. But the basic story of Mao is that he implemented insane policies in an attempt to gain and hold onto power, and often viewed Chinese deaths as collateral damage in his power struggles.
Mao, like Stalin, was also a villain that other countries learned to live with. He conquered Tibet and invaded South Korea (before being repulsed), but overall he wasn’t much interested in conquest. Like Stalin, he sat on his giant empire and brutally attempted to bend it to his (often insane) will. The society he created was desperately poor, paranoid, and totalitarian, but also often chaotic and even anarchic in places.
In my mind, those five regimes stand head and shoulders above the rest, but there are certainly no shortage of other bad ones. Seven honorable mentions:
The Young Turks: Turkey’s junta carried out the Armenian Genocide during World War I, killing around a million people.
North Korea: One of the world’s most nightmarish totalitarian regimes, North Korea tried to conquer South Korea, and also caused at least one mass famine with its policies of deliberate isolation.
Rwanda’s Hutu government: The Hutu government in the 1990s committed the famous Rwandan genocide, and helped foment and prosecute the Second Congo War that killed millions of people in central Africa. An ideology of ethnic supremacy was a big part of the reason why.
The Derg: Ethiopia’s communist regime in the 1970s and 1980s doesn’t get talked about much, but they killed maybe 500,000 people in political executions and ended up starving hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians to death.
Yahya Khan: Under Yahya Khan in 1971, Pakistan tried to terrorize Bangladesh into remaining under Pakistan’s control. The army killed anywhere between 300,000 and 3 million Bangladeshis, and raped hundreds of thousands more.
Suharto: Although Indonesia saw robust economic growth under Suharto, he killed over half a million people for political and ethnic reasons.
King Leopold II: The Belgian king’s extractive regime in the Congo killed anywhere from 1.2 to 10 million people there. The bulk of the atrocities in the 19th century, however; Leopold’s rule over Congo ended in 1908.
I realize that this list is subject to differences of opinion, depending on A) which estimates you believe, and B) which factors you weight more heavily in the calculation of regime evilness. But I think it’s a pretty defensible list, and it demonstrates at least two important lessons.
First of all, the very worst atrocities come during times of war — especially wars of conquest, where foreign peoples are dehumanized and armies are given carte blanche. The fascist regimes of WW2 come off as the worst because they were engaged in massive wars of conquest. And wars often increase a regime’s appetite for further conquest and destruction. So basically, regimes that invade other countries tend to be worse.
Second, communist regimes tended to starve a lot of their people to death. Insane agricultural policies were a hallmark of communist economics — probably because successful communist revolutions usually began as revolts by agrarian peasantry rather than proletarian workers as Marx had envisioned. In trying to transform agriculture, communists ended up just starving their people to death.
So while communism probably caused more aggregate human misery than fascism in the 20th century, that was only because fascism didn’t have time; it was so incredibly malignant that it was stopped very quickly by external coalitions. Communism was more like a chronic debilitating disease, while fascism war more like ebola.
That leaves us one more interesting question: By these criteria, who have been the worst regimes of the current century, so far? So far, the 21st century has been somewhat less destructive than the 20th — by 1926 we had already seen World War I, the Armenian Genocide, Lenin’s political purges, the Russian Civil War, and so on. The years 2000-2026 have, thankfully, been somewhat less brutal and chaotic so far. But we still have plenty of tyrannical villains. Here would be a tentative top five:
1. The RSF, Omar al-Bashir, and the Janjaweed: There has basically been a rolling series of genocides in Sudan this whole century — the first Darfur genocide, the second Darfur genocide, the Masalit genocide, and so on. Some of this was done at the behest of former president Omar al-Bashir, who encouraged murderous militias known as the Janjaweed, who later morphed into the RSF.
2. ISIS: This is the closest thing we’ve had to the Khmer Rouge in recent decades. ISIS’ extremist ideology led them to create a nightmarish totalitarian state in the areas of Iraq and Syria under their control, genocide the Yazidis, and throw much of the Arabian Peninsula into chaos. Their total death toll wasn’t as high as some of the others, but this was because they were stopped quickly; they were so horrible that everyone immediately united to fight and destroy them.
3. Vladimir Putin: Putin is one of the most aggressive leaders of modern times. He started wars in Georgia and Ukraine, and got heavily involved in the war in Syria. Over half a million people have died in Ukraine so far, and Putin bears some responsibility for the hundreds of thousands more who perished in Syria. It seems clear at this point that he’s not going to stop prosecuting wars of aggression until he dies or is defeated.
4. Bashar al-Assad: In his desperation to hang onto power, Assad laid waste to his country, killing hundreds of thousands and even using chemical weapons on rebels before ultimately fleeing.
5. The Tatmadaw: Myanmar’s military has been locked in a brutal civil war against ethnic minorities for decades, but in 2021 things really kicked into high gear after the army staged a coup against the country’s democratically elected government and put down protests with extreme brutality. The country is now an anarchic wasteland with war crimes galore.
These tyrants and murderers are somewhat less impressive, numbers-wise, than their 20th century counterparts. They also don’t clearly fit into the “fascism vs. communism” dichotomy that dominated much of the previous century; they’re more likely to be motivated either by Islamism, local ethnic chauvinism, or simple personal lust for power. But looking back at the 20th century, we should remember how bad dictators and totalitarian regimes can get, especially when they go to war — and how important it is to stop the worst of them in their tracks, before they can get even worse.
Major new report from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Five things in the report I really liked:
1. Proposes metascience units as a way to advance experimentation in science agencies. IFP recommended OSTP take this forward in our response to a 2025 RFI.
2. Advocates for a portfolio approach to federal science funding. Right now, basic research funding largely goes to incremental, project-based grants. While important, they can’t be the only mechanism we use to fund science.
3. Recognizes the need to launch new institutions. It specifically highlights X-Labs as an experiment with independent labs that can take on ambitious challenges. This is a bipartisan idea whose time has come.
4. Focuses on a mix of innovation funding mechanisms, including fast grants, prizes & challenges, and advance market commitments. We described and contextualized these ideas in the Atlas of Innovation, which can help policymakers design and implement these approaches.
5. Seeks to reduce burden for American scientists, who face mountains of paperwork. Scientists should spend more time doing science and less time writing/reporting on grant proposals and working to meet regulatory requirements.
Here is the link, here is the report itself, by Michael Kratsios, Science a New Golden Age. Overall, less money will be given to universities and more will be spent on AI-assisted science. Here are further observations from Seth Bannon.
The post Alec Stapp on the new Science report from Michael Kratsios appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Alan and Karen Miller’s first dance was a win-or-lose moment for many of their wedding guests.
As the couple glided across the floor during their reception in New Rochelle, N.Y., last year, attendees kept track of the chosen artist and the length of the dance. Earlier in the night, they had noted their guesses on prop bet sheets.
Proposition, or prop, bets are usually tied to sporting events. Users place wagers on specific details that aren’t necessarily correlated with a game’s outcome, like points scored by certain players. Now, these bets have entered the world of weddings.
More couples have been integrating betting into their celebrations in recent years through digital apps or printed cards. While the Millers, who live in New York City, aren’t avid sports bettors or gamblers themselves, they wanted to make their June 2025 celebration more interactive and distinctive for their 175 guests.
“I’ve been to many New York and New Jersey weddings, and sometimes I feel like for cocktail hour, it kind of has a little bit of a lull, even though there’s a lot of good food,” said Karen, 38. “We wanted to make sure our guests had an activity that a lot of people could partake in.”
She bought a prop bet template from Etsy and customized it on the graphic design platform Canva. Among the questions on the couple’s prop bet sheet: Who will give the longest toast? Will the couple cry during the speeches? How many outfits will the bride wear on the wedding day?
…“If the groom’s known to be an emotional man, it’s fun to bet on how early in the day he’s going to cry,” Drachenberg said. “I think it engages them a bit more in the day.”
Here is more from Ellen O’Brien at the NYT. Supposedly more than 25,000 couples have attempted some version of this on the app.
Via the excellent Samir Varma.
The post Betting markets in everything appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Wildland fire activity in Canada ramped up in July 2026, a time of year when lightning ignitions typically increase, according to a seasonal outlook published by several North American fire agencies. The blazes sent smoke plumes pouring across the U.S. and Canada, affecting air quality in both countries.
This animation tracks brown carbon, the organic aerosols emitted by fires that give smoke plumes their characteristic yellow, orange, and brown tint. Brown carbon is a major component of a fire’s PM2.5 emissions, a type of air pollution that can aggravate cardiovascular and respiratory conditions. Here, the plume drifts across North American skies from July 14 through July 20, 2026.
Data for the animation come from a version of the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) model, which assimilates data from satellites, aircraft, and ground-based observing systems. In addition to satellite observations of aerosols and fires, the model also incorporates meteorological data such as air temperature, moisture, and winds to project the plume’s behavior.
On July 14, at the start of the animation, numerous fires had already cropped up, including more than 180 in Ontario and several in northern Minnesota. Winds carried the smoke southeast, and by July 15, skies turned hazy and air quality declined from southern Ontario in Canada to the Upper Midwest and Northeast in the U.S. July 16 and 17 saw air quality in many areas continue to plummet, including in Detroit, where it stayed in the hazardous range for several consecutive days. Toronto, Chicago, New York City, and Washington, D.C., saw air quality ranging from unhealthy to hazardous.
On July 19 and 20, smoke continued to affect air quality downwind, including in the Great Lakes region, according to the National Weather Service. Storms began clearing it away in parts of the East, where air quality improved to good or moderate. Meanwhile, fires in the Pacific Northwest began degrading air quality there.
The brown carbon shown in this animation represents organic carbon that comes specifically from wildfire smoke. Wildfires also emit black carbon, or soot, which contributes to their PM2.5 output. Black carbon has long served as a tracer for smoke plumes, but human sources—such as vehicle exhaust and industrial combustion—produce it too, blending in with the black carbon from fires. The GEOS model has been able to make that distinction for brown carbon since February 2026, when an update enabled it to split organic carbon into its anthropogenic and biomass-burning components.
NASA Earth Observatory animation by Lauren Dauphin, using GEOS-FP data from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC. Story by Kathryn Hansen.
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Canadian wildfires sent plumes of smoke streaming over Ontario, Quebec, and parts of the U.S. Midwest and Northeast.

Seasonal fires have darkened skies over Southeast Asia.

In fire-prone ecosystems in Australia’s Northern Territory, prescribed burns are lit to minimize the severity of fires later in the…
The post A Week of Smoky Skies Across North America appeared first on NASA Science.

Data from the Earth-orbiting U.S.-India NISAR (NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellite’s L-band radar was used to produce an image of Nunatak Zaterjavshijsja — a mountaintop in East Antarctica — poking out amid a stream of ice flowing northeast to the ocean. The obstruction causes stresses in the ice, heavily fracturing the surrounding surfaces with deep cracks, called crevasses, which show as sharp green lines in the image. Produced in August 2025, the image has been nicknamed “the hummingbird” by NISAR scientists.
The colors show differences in the way polarized microwave signals, which vibrate in different directions, interact with and reflect from the ice. Over Antarctica, NISAR transmits radar waves toward Earth with a horizontal polarization. The orientation of the signals that return, either horizontal, vertical, or both, provide clues about the object or surface that reflected them.
Signals that come back with a horizontal polarization likely bounced off a more regular surface, such as smooth ice. Those signals appear magenta in the image. Signals that return with vertical polarization may have refracted as they partially penetrated the ice or scattered at different angles as they reflected off irregular surfaces, like the faces of crevasses. Called volume scattering, these observations are displayed in green.
The white represents areas in which both magenta and green signals scatter back strongly, a possible indication that there is an equal blend of surface and volume scattering.
Figure A is an annotated version of image.
Managed by Caltech, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory leads the United States component of the project and provided the satellite’s L-band SAR and antenna reflector. The spacecraft bus and its S-band SAR were provided by the Indian Space Research Organisation. The NISAR satellite is the first to carry two SAR instruments at different wavelengths, collecting data using the spacecraft’s giant drum-shaped reflector, which measures 39 feet (12 meters) wide — the largest radar antenna reflector NASA has ever sent into space.
To learn more about NISAR, visit:
https://science.nasa.gov/mission/nisar/
The post NISAR’s L-Band Radar Reveals ‘Hummingbird’ in Antarctica appeared first on NASA Science.