“Another thing we (John [Horton] and I) have thought about is having a swarm of AIs “fight” over a literature. They could take the cumulative datasets available and continuously argue until they understand the question. One line of thinking says they reach a stalemate (as scientists currently do). But we think not. More likely, they push evidentiary understanding to the limit and coalesce around what’s most probable — if not definitive!”
That is from Benjamin Manning.
The post Another use of AI in research (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Recent advances in autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicle technologies promise substantial cost savings for goods shipped by truck. In this study, we quantify the impacts of these transport cost reductions on the US interstate trade using a structural gravity model of domestic trade. Based on projected cost savings from the widespread adoption of self-driving technologies, we estimate significant increases in total interstate trade value. State-level impacts vary from 40.3% of GDP in Mississippi to 5.9% in Florida, while the largest impacts in dollar value are observed in Texas and New York. The sectoral analysis highlights motorized vehicles, mixed freight, and electronics as the industries experiencing the largest trade value growth. Additionally, goods with low value-to-weight ratios—where shipping costs represent a large share of the delivered value—are expected to benefit most in relative terms. These findings underscore the transformative potential of autonomous vehicle technologies in reshaping US trade patterns and sectoral dynamics.
That is from a recent paper by Taejun Mo, et.al., via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The post The interstate trade effects of autonomous trucks appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Today’s Picture of the Week features two distinct families: a collection of ALMA antennas and a trio of vicuñas , a type of camelid, related to llamas and alpacas. Unlike in almost every way, the subjects of this image are linked by their extremely hostile home environment, high up in the Chilean Andes.
The Chajnantor plateau, site of the Atacama Large Millimetre/submillimetre Array (ALMA) shown here, is 5000 metres above sea level, making it one of the driest places on Earth. The aridity is perfect for observations with ALMA, which searches for cosmic signals from the cold Universe that are readily absorbed by moist air. But the low number of cloudy days, along with a thin atmosphere, produces harsh conditions, pushing the limits of both engineering and evolution.
The ALMA receivers –– the devices that catch signals from space –– are enclosed in cryostats that keep them very cold, protecting them against the drastic day-to-night temperature swings of the desert. The antennas are designed to withstand extremely strong winds, up to 100 kilometres an hour. ALMA’s electronics are cooled with extra-fast spinning fans to account for the thinner air. For the workers, like technicians and engineers who maintain the site, portable medical oxygen is mandatory on the plateau to limit the risk of high-altitude sickness.
Like ALMA, vicuñas, are also well-suited to these extreme conditions. They have several adaptations to cope with low oxygen density, including an increased ability to bind oxygen to red blood cells and hearts 50% heavier than similar-sized mammals. Vicuñas are also protected from large temperature variations with their dense fleece of fine hairs, which traps warm air to insulate them during cold nights and forms a breathable barrier to prevent overheating during the day.
Starting in early April, NASA satellites began to detect a patch of brownish, blue-green water lingering off the coasts of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia. The colors and patterns were most intense in the shallow coastal zone where the waters of Raritan Bay, Delaware Bay, and Chesapeake Bay merged with the Atlantic Ocean—an area known as the Mid-Atlantic Bight.
It’s a part of the ocean that remote sensing scientists typically describe as being “noisy” or “dirty” because rivers often discolor coastal waters with plumes of suspended sediment, water stained with colored dissolved organic matter, and an array of microscopic and aquatic plant life. All of this can mingle with ephemeral phytoplankton blooms, sometimes in mucky waters against a varied backdrop of seagrass, sand flats, and rocky sea bottoms.
This mix creates optical complexity that has long made it harder for scientists to distinguish and categorize phytoplankton blooms in shallow coastal zones compared to the deeper, darker, more uniform waters of the open ocean. Yet with the arrival of missions like PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem), which launched in 2024 and measures more wavelengths of light than previous ocean color missions, scientists are growing increasingly confident in identifying phytoplankton blooms even in optically complex coastal areas.
Multiple NASA satellites—including PACE, Aqua, and Terra—have captured images of colorful water in recent weeks. While some of the color visible in the images may be due to outflows from coastal rivers and sediment churned up by spring storms, “there are likely phytoplankton blooms happening,” said Anna Windle, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center supporting the PACE science team. “Diatoms typically dominate blooms early in the spring, but we are seeing some signs of coccolithophores mixed in as well,” she said. PACE data helped confirm that at least some of the greens and blues offshore are phytoplankton blooms by mapping chlorophyll in the region on the same day.
Diatoms are a class of phytoplankton that often experience explosive growth in their population in the spring when the combination of river runoff, increased sunlight, and seasonal shifts in winds and currents brings upwellings of cool, nutrient-rich water to the surface. Diatom-dominated blooms typically appear greenish in natural-color satellite imagery.
Coccolithophore-dominated blooms generally have a brighter, chalkier, more turquoise look to them. The milky appearance is a product of the coccolithophores—tiny plant-like organisms that live in the upper layers of the ocean and surround themselves with scaly platings called coccoliths made of calcite, or calcium carbonate.
These highly reflective hubcap-shaped scales are only a few thousandths of a millimeter thick, but coccolithophores are found in such massive numbers during blooms that their plates play a key role in global biogeochemical cycles. The organisms are responsible for about one-half of modern precipitation of calcium carbonate in the ocean, according to one estimate. Off the Mid-Atlantic, coccolithophore blooms generally occur in the late spring or summer, after surface water temperatures have warmed and diatom blooms have lowered nutrient levels somewhat.
Phytoplankton are to the ocean what grasses and ground cover are to land: primary producers, a key food source for other life, and the main carbon recyclers for the marine environment. Diatoms, coccolithophores, algae, and other forms of phytoplankton are floating organisms that absorb sunshine, sponge up nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus, and create their own food through photosynthesis.
The ocean surface is typically quite nutrient-rich in the spring after cold winter weather and winds have mixed the water vertically, bringing nutrients upwards. “But over time, as big spring phytoplankton blooms grow, they deplete the nutrients,” said Rutgers University oceanographer Oscar Schofield. “Unless big river outflows or storms replenish the nutrients, we’ll likely see this bloom start to decline in the coming weeks.”
NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Adam Voiland.
Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.

As Iceberg A-23A disintegrated, it shed meltwater that helped fuel an extensive phytoplankton bloom in the South Atlantic Ocean.

A vibrant display of phytoplankton encircled the remote New Zealand islands.

Vivid green blooms form, drift, and fade in Hartbeespoortdam reservoir over the course of a year.
The post Color Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast appeared first on NASA Science.
(Lord’s day). Up betimes, and put on a black cloth suit, with white lynings under all, as the fashion is to wear, to appear under the breeches. So being ready walked to St. James’s, where I sat talking with Mr. Coventry, while he made himself ready, about several businesses of the Navy, and afterwards, the Duke being gone out, he and I walked to White Hall together over the Park, I telling him what had happened to Tom Hater, at which he seems very sorry, but tells me that if it is not made very publique, it will not be necessary to put him away at present, but give him good caution for the time to come. However, he will speak to the Duke about it and know his pleasure.
Parted with him there, and I walked back to St. James’s, and was there at mass, and was forced in the crowd to kneel down; and mass being done, to the King’s Head ordinary, whither I sent for Mr. Creed and there we dined, where many Parliament-men; and most of their talk was about the news from Scotland, that the Bishop of Galloway was besieged in his house by some women, and had like to have been outraged, but I know not how he was secured; which is bad news, and looks just as it did in the beginning of the late troubles. From thence they talked of rebellion; and I perceive they make it their great maxime to be sure to master the City of London, whatever comes of it or from it. After that to some other discourse, and, among other things, talking of the way of ordinaries, that it is very convenient, because a man knows what he hath to pay: one did wish that, among many bad, we could learn two good things of France, which were that we would not think it below the gentleman, or person of honour at a tavern, to bargain for his meat before he eats it; and next, to take no servant without certificate from some friend or gentleman of his good behaviour and abilities.
Hence with Creed into St. James’s Park, and there walked all the afternoon, and thence on foot home, and after a little while at my office walked in the garden with my wife, and so home to supper, and after prayers to bed. My brother Tom supped with me, and should have brought my aunt Ellen with him; she was not free to go abroad.
David Beckworth recently interviewed Basil Halperin on his podcast MacroMusings. The interview focused on two primary issues: the effect of AI on the macroeconomy and how to think about optimal monetary policy. I see Halperin as a pragmatist in the tradition of Bennett McCallum, which is one reason why he’s my favorite young macroeconomist. Later, I’ll offer some comments on recent trends in the economy.
Halperin’s model suggests that if extremely rapid AI growth were to occur, it would lead to much higher interest rates. The fact that we do not see extremely high rates is taken as evidence that the financial markets do not expect explosive growth over the next decade or two:
Halperin: . . . I think it’s totally plausible that we just get something like the late ’90s, the dot-com boom, where we have a large surge in growth. AI companies make a lot of money and continue to have really fast revenue growth, like the 10 times a year that Anthropic has had last year. Not reaching the 30% GDP growth, certainly in the next five years, again, that some people take very seriously.
Maybe 20 years down the line, things change. I do think that rapid acceleration really is possible in the long run if we have something closer to full automation of human labor. Those sci-fi scenarios, I actually do think our models say that’s quite possible. Economic history says rapid economic speed-ups are quite possible. In the next five years, the next 10 years even, maybe even the next 20 years, that’s where the markets are not seeing this. Markets are pretty good at predicting the future, its own form of artificial intelligence.
Beckworth: You’re hopeful that, within my lifetime, I will see transformative AI?
Halperin: “Hopeful” is a strong word because big changes are both good and scary.
Others have argued that an AI boom might actually lower interest rates, but I don’t find the assumptions about income distribution in those models to be plausible.
The interview is full of great observations. Here he pushes back on the view (which I once held) that AI might solve our public debt problems:
Faster growth means higher tax revenue, but faster growth in general equilibrium means higher interest rates, that is, higher rates on new debt. The average maturity of Treasuries is like six years or something so the US has to roll over its debt stock every six years or something like that. After six years, we’re going to be stuck with all those higher new interest rates. Hence then, the question is this R versus G, or really R minus G, is the effect of AI on interest rates or on growth larger? What determines that? . . .
And this is what the empirical estimates in my paper with Zach and Trevor would find where . . . we have some nice data showing that R and G are indeed lined up. Higher growth leads to higher interest rates or correlationally leads to higher interest rates. We estimate something around one for the slope of that relationship, this elasticity of intertemporal substitution. I would say that higher growth leads to one-for-one higher interest rates so that new debt is not any easier or any harder to pay off as a response to AI. That would say that AI is not a magic solution to our debt problem.
Halperin is a fan of NGDP targeting, citing the influence of George Selgin’s book Less Than Zero:
[Selgin’s] book has influenced me a lot. I think, to my very idiosyncratic taste, it’s one of the most conceptually important works on monetary economics in the last 30 or 40 years because it really drills in on what should central banks actually be doing from a number of directions that the formal literature eventually developed on, even if George’s work wasn’t mathematically formalized so much and wasn’t so much directly cited. He previewed works in top journals that were published 20 or 30 years later, including inspiring my paper that you mentioned with Daniele Caratelli.
Milton Friedman is another influence:
Halperin: . . . If the real interest rate is going to rise, if r-star is going to rise, that means monetary policy needs to pay attention to that, to either not keep interest rates too low so that you have some inflationary outcome, or not have interest rates too high to have excess unemployment, like the Citrini scenario. That’s the second point.
A third point is that I think monetary policy can be helpful to not screw up how the economy goes during an AI-driven transition, but cannot solve the problem. This really is a question for fiscal policymakers. It is a question of redistribution. What monetary policy should be sure to do is just not screw things up. I keep saying Friedman in this episode, maybe appropriately because he’s the GOAT, as your boss, Tyler, would say.
What monetary policy can do versus what it can’t do: What it can do is ensure that it doesn’t screw up the economy in response to shocks. That’s the fundamental lesson of his 1968 presidential address, famous paper. Implementing the less-than-zero policy that Selgin recommends or this countercyclical inflation that comes out of my work would be one plausible way of doing that.
Halperin agrees with Bennett McCallum that because we don’t know exactly which form of wage and price stickiness is the most important, we need a robust approach to monetary policy that is relatively optimal under a wide range of assumptions.
Halperin: Even zooming out, is sticky prices obviously the most important nominal friction in the world? I’ve written a paper on this. That’s still not clear to me. Sticky prices as opposed to sticky wages or sticky nominal debt contracts or sticky information. No one’s done a head-to-head comparison of all these different frictions. I think that’s desperately needed. Though, it’s not clear how you do that. Otherwise, I would have written the paper. . . .
That’s the core logic of what we show to be optimal in the model. The way that gets you NGDP targeting or nominal wage targeting or this countercyclical inflation is that if this firm was having a positive productivity shock, it’s producing more stuff. Output’s going up. Y is going up. It’s cutting its price. Every other firm is keeping prices constant, but that one firm is lowering its prices. The average level of prices in the economy is then falling. Y up, P down. In a baseline setup, those are one for one. P times Y, nominal GDP, is kept constant. You can also see this as nominal wage targeting. Stabilizing nominal wages ensures that the nominal costs of all those unaffected firms is stabilized so that they don’t want to change their prices. Nominal wage targeting is another way we frame optimal policy in the paper. All of these terms—NGDP targeting, nominal income targeting, nominal wage targeting—all of these things are pointing to this countercyclical inflation, looking through shocks rather than aiming for strict inflation stabilization, which is the baseline new Keynesian logic. . . .
The way I think about this is that NGDP targeting or something like it is eclectically optimal.
Back in 2011, I had this to say about Bennett McCallum:
McCallum first proposed NGDP targeting some time around 1980. McCallum has an interesting position within the field of macroeconomics. Unlike me, he is comfortable with the IS-LM approach. Unlike me, he is comfortable working with rather sophisticated new Keynesian models. But unlike people like Michael Woodford, he has always insisted on the importance of the quantity of money (rather than merely the effects of monetary policy on interest rates.) And unlike most new Keynesians, he’s argued that NGDP targeting is superior to the various flexible price inflation targets that are frequently proposed. I think this is rather unusual, as when your model includes both P and Y separately, there is no obvious reason to put the same coefficient on the reaction function for each variable. So I’ve always seen him as being in the mainstream of modern macro research, but a little off to the side of that mainstream.
I met him only once, and that was at a conference in March. He has a very appealing personality; quiet and very polite. . . . I have great respect for his intuition. He seems to have a good sense of which developments in macro are fruitful and which are not.
Like McCallum, Basil Halperin seems to have absorbed both the best of New Keynesian economics and the best of Milton Friedman thought. He also favors NGDP targeting. He also seems to have excellent intuition about which sort of macro models are plausible and which are not—a skill that’s hard to teach. Even their personalities seem a bit similar, as both come across as being very polite. (Here’s a much longer post explaining McCallum’s excellent intuition.)
Next, I’ll offer some related observations on the current state of the economy.
Katie Paul and Jeff Horwitz, reporting for Reuters in late April:
Meta is installing new tracking software on U.S.-based employees’ computers to capture mouse movements, clicks and keystrokes for use in training its artificial intelligence models, part of a broad initiative to build AI agents that can perform work tasks autonomously, the company told staffers in internal memos seen by Reuters.
The tool, called Model Capability Initiative (MCI), will run on work-related apps and websites and will also take occasional snapshots of the content on employees’ screens, according to one of the memos, posted by a staff AI research scientist on Tuesday in a channel for the company’s model-building Meta SuperIntelligence Labs team.
I love this. Anyone who works at Meta knows who they’re working for. I hope they’re all as creeped out by this as I would be. What I’d really like to know is how far up the chain does this go? If they have any honor, every single employee at the company, right up to Zuckerberg, would get this MCI spyware. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. I presume that’s not the case, and there’s a two-class system where if you’re high enough in the org chart, you don’t get it. I would love to hear from any little birdies about this, but I don’t have many little birdies in Menlo Park. (Alan, baby, help me out?)
Also:
Meta is planning to lay off 10% of its workforce globally starting on May 20 and is eyeing additional large cuts later this year.
If I worked there I’d raise my hand to get a buyout, but, I’d never work there in the first place.
Horwitz, by the way, won a 2026 Pulitzer for his investigative coverage of Meta.
If you google the history of Mother’s Day, the internet will tell you that Mother’s Day began in 1908 when Anna Jarvis decided to honor her mother. But “Mothers’ Day”—with the apostrophe not in the singular spot, but in the plural—actually started in the 1870s, when the sheer enormity of the death caused by the Civil War and the Franco-Prussian War convinced writer and reformer Julia Ward Howe that women must take control of politics from the men who had permitted such carnage. Mothers’ Day was not designed to encourage people to be nice to their mothers. It was part of women’s effort to gain power to change society.
The Civil War years taught naïve Americans what mass death meant in the modern era. Soldiers who had marched off to war with fantasies of heroism discovered that newly invented long-range weapons turned death into tortured anonymity. Men were trampled into blood-soaked mud, piled like cordwood in ditches, or withered into emaciated corpses after dysentery drained their lives away.
The women who had watched their hale and healthy men march off to war were haunted by its results. They lost fathers, husbands, sons, and brothers. The men who did come home were scarred in both body and mind.
Modern war, it seemed, was not a game.
But out of the war also came a new sense of empowerment. Women had bought bonds, paid taxes, raised money for the war effort, managed farms, harvested fields, worked in war industries, reared children, and nursed soldiers. When the war ended, they had every expectation that they would continue to be considered valuable participants in national affairs, and had every intention of continuing to take part in them.
But the Fourteenth Amendment, which established that Black men were citizens, did not explicitly include women in that right. Worse, it introduced the word “male” into the Constitution when it warned states against preventing “male inhabitants” from voting. In 1869, the year after the Fourteenth Amendment was added to the Constitution, women organized two organizations—the National Woman Suffrage Association and the American Woman Suffrage Association—to promote women’s right to have a say in American government.
From her home in Boston, Julia Ward Howe was a key figure in the American Woman Suffrage Association. She was an enormously talented writer who in the early years of the Civil War had penned “The Battle Hymn of the Republic,” a hymn whose lyrics made it a point to note that Christ was “born of woman.”
Howe was drawn to women’s rights because the laws of her time meant that her children belonged to her abusive husband. If she broke free of him, she would lose any right to see her children, a fact he threw at her whenever she threatened to leave him. She was not at first a radical in the mold of reformer Elizabeth Cady Stanton, who believed that women had a human right to equality with men. Rather, she believed strongly that women, as mothers, had a special role to perform in the world.
For Howe, the Civil War had been traumatic, but that it led to emancipation might justify its terrible bloodshed. The outbreak of the Franco-Prussian War in 1870 was another story. She remembered:
“I was visited by a sudden feeling of the cruel and unnecessary character of the contest. It seemed to me a return to barbarism, the issue having been one which might easily have been settled without bloodshed. The question forced itself upon me, ‘Why do not the mothers of mankind interfere in these matters, to prevent the waste of that human life of which they alone know and bear the cost?’”
Howe had a new vision, she said, of “the august dignity of motherhood and its terrible responsibilities.” She sat down immediately and wrote an “Appeal to Womanhood Throughout the World.” Men always had and always would decide questions by resorting to “mutual murder,” she wrote, but women did not have to accept “proceedings which fill the globe with grief and horror.” Mothers could command their sons, “who owe their life to her suffering,” to stop the madness.
“Arise, women!” Howe commanded. “Say firmly: ‘We will not have great questions decided by irrelevant agencies. Our husbands shall not come to us, reeking with carnage, for caresses and applause. Our sons shall not be taken from us to unlearn all that we have been able to teach them of charity, mercy and patience. We, women of one country, will be too tender of those of another country, to allow our sons to be trained to injure theirs.’”
Howe had her document translated into French, Spanish, Italian, German, and Swedish and distributed it as widely as her extensive contacts made possible. She believed that her Women’s Peace Movement would be the next great development in human history, ending war just as the antislavery movement had ended human bondage. She called for a “festival which should be observed as mothers’ day, and which should be devoted to the advocacy of peace doctrines” to be held around the world on June 2 of every year, a date that would permit open-air meetings.
Howe organized international peace conferences, and American states developed their own Mothers’ Day festivals. But Howe quickly realized that there was much to be done before women could come together on a global scale. She turned her attention to women’s clubs “to constitute a working and united womanhood.”
As Howe worked to unite women, she came to realize that a woman did not have to center her life around a man, but rather should be “a free agent, fully sharing with man every human right and every human responsibility.” “This discovery was like the addition of a new continent to the map of the world,” she later recalled, “or of a new testament to the old ordinances.” She threw herself into the struggle for women’s suffrage, understanding that in order to create a more just and peaceful society, women must take up their rightful place as equal participants in American politics.
While we celebrate the modern version of Mother’s Day on May 10, in this momentous year of 2026, it’s worth remembering the original Mothers’ Day and Julia Ward Howe’s conviction that women must have the same rights as men, and that they must make their voices heard.
—
Notes:
https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/rbc/rbpe/rbpe07/rbpe074/07400300/07400300.pdf
Julia Ward Howe, Reminiscences, 1819-1899 (Boston: 1900).
So last week week, the Aliso Viejo City Council introduced the new city manager, Brett Channing.
And, before we dive into the nitty gritty of what it all means, I’d like to welcome Brett to town with this image of a donut.
Now that that’s out of the way—Channing!
He is a man I have yet to meet, yet a man it would be wise to befriend, for his new salary is (this is not a misprint) $342,000 per year, plus (also not a misprint) phone, transportation, vacation package, 240 hours of paid leave (seriously—two hundred and forty hours) and all sorts of perks, goodies and office desk doodads. Here’s the contract. Put different: If anyone in local government has the means to throw the kick-ass Chanukah party of 2026, it’s Brett. Bring the chips and guac, y’all!
And, to be clear, I am not dogging Brett Channing. For all I know, he winds up doing a great job and, upon retirement, Aliso Viejo will be coined, “Brettville.” Hell, this Q&A makes him sound like a lovely chap. I’m being serious—perhaps he kicks ass. That would be tremendous.
But, well, this whole jamboree makes no sense. Let’s review …
So, last December Mitzi Ortiz, the Aliso Viejo city manager, died at age 45. By all accounts, Ortiz was a lovely person and committed public servant. A good egg, as my Grandpa Nat would have said. And it was (technically) up to the five-member Aliso Viejo City Council to find a replacement. Normally, when people are blessed with human skulls and IQs clearing 50, this would involve hiring an executive search firm to line up a slate of candidates. After all, one can argue this is the most important position in the metropolis.
According to sources inside City Hall, however, instead of enlisting a head hunter, Tim Zandbergen and Garrett Dwyer (both council members, both MAGA bruhs) decided they would take the lead.
What followed was, well stupidity. Resumes were solicited, phone calls were made, Samantha Fox DVDs were watched—and Zandbergen and Dwyer offered up a handful of finalists who were vetted in a hyper-specific and impressive manner that involved breaking down the qualities, examining past experiences, researching municipal trends apparently very little. And with almost no public scrutiny.
They chose Channing.
And, to reiterate, I’ve got no beef with the man. He might wind up great. Better than great. Uber great!
But riddle me this: David Doyle, Ortiz’s predecessor, was paid approximately $350,000 for his (shitty) services before being fired in 2024. Ortiz, his replacement (and—gasp!—a woman of color) had to settle for $70,000 less. And now Channing is back, bling blinging his best life. Why the skyrocketed pay? Why the tight lips? Why so little (aka almost no) transparency? Well … hmm … um … it’s not entirely clear.
The Aliso Viejo City Council is made up of five people. Four of the five are white Trumpy dudes who, together, look like the the members of a reunited Grade-D midwestern boy band who moonlight as pharmaceutical salesmen …
… and the fifth is Tiffany Ackley (aka: a woman whose brain wasn’t hollowed out by the MAGA virus, and serves as the glue holding together any lingering morsels of municipal sanity).
When one attends a council meeting, there is a palpable weirdness—Ackley fighting for reason, the four boy band members fighting against Pride flags and non-existent DEI efforts. It forces one to question whether, for $342,000, they’re hoping for more than a well-run city and a pioneering spirit.
It forces one to question what the hell just happened.
An ASML chipmaking machine
I’m in Europe for a few weeks, giving myself some physical (if not mental) distance from Trumpland. So I decided to take a short break from my healthcare series to write about the European economy — specifically the perception that Europe is in economic decline. According to conventional wisdom, Europe is falling far behind the United States. It has lost any dynamism it once had and is quickly becoming a museum of its former glories.
This perception is widespread: at Davos in January Howard Lutnik, Trump’s Commerce secretary, gave a speech that was so insulting toward Europe that Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, walked out. The Wall Street Journal recently published an article under the headline “What happens when Europeans find out how poor they are?” which asserted an equivalence between the European economy and the poorest U.S. states, such as Alabama and Mississippi.
Granted, what would you expect from an Epstein pal, stablecoin profiteer, Trump minion like Lutnick? Yet smart Europeans are also concerned: in 2024 Mario Draghi, one of history’s greatest central bankers, issued a report on EU competitiveness that highlighted Europe’s lagging productivity and raised serious alarms.
But how accurate is this perception of European underperformance? While there are valid reasons to be concerned about Europe’s future, the trash talk reflects ignorance of the real issues. And even economically sophisticated, Draghi-type discussions are, I would argue, misleading. Europe is simply not poor the way Mississippi is poor. Moreover, by many measures — arguably the most important measures — Europe is, in fact, keeping up with the United States.
Europe, along with China and the United States, is an economic superpower. And, at this point in time, it is arguably the world’s only democratic superpower. However, misperceptions about its economic performance keep it from playing the global role that it should and is so desperately needed.
So while this primer is primarily informational, intended to give an overview of Europe’s long-term economic performance and how it compares to that of the U.S., it is also a wake-up call to Europeans to stop being gaslit by American triumphalism and to realize their own strengths – strengths that are critically needed in a world of encroaching authoritarianism.
Beyond the paywall I will address three questions:
1. Does Europe have a lower standard of living than the U.S.?
2. Is Europe falling behind the U.S.?
3. Has Europe failed to match its global influence with its economic power?
One could say in the first quarter-century of my life, that while I was always fascinated by programming, I could never overcome the guilt of not really knowing whether the tool I am building right now isn’t already superceded by some much better implementation someone else has already written 30 or 40 years ago; I could write a TSV-aware search and replace, or I could find out about
awkand solve that entire class of problems in one fell swoop, for example. My central conceit is that this is a trap. You need to reinvent a couple of wheels to get to the edge of what we know about wheel-making, not a thousand wheels, and not zero; probably four or five is sufficient in most domains, maybe closer to twenty or thirty in the most epistemically rigorous and developed fields like mathematics or computer science. Each wheel you reinvent, and every directed question you ask along the way, will propel you faster to the true frontier than that same amount of time spend in idle study, or even five times that amount.
— Andrew Quinn, footnote on Replacing a 3 GB SQLite database with a 10 MB FST (finite state transducer) binary
Links for you. Science:
I Was Treated for Tuberculosis While Millions Were Robbed of Care
Cocaine Pollution Seems to Make Salmon Swim Farther Than Usual. Scientists Don’t Know the Long-Term Consequences
‘Why is publishing so expensive?’
The Destroyed Remnants of a Lost World Are Falling to Earth, Scientists Discover
Doctor, wife of acting U.S. attorney general, appointed to NIH advisory council
Trump fires all 24 members of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s governing body
A new way to stop global spread of pathogen once linked to Ireland’s Great Famine
Other:
It Is 2006… It is 2026…
Transit, school decisions are putting DC students in danger
D.C. child care workers got life-changing raises. Now they may be cut.
Trump’s Losing Streak Takes a Truly Humiliating Turn
The Trouble with Trump’s Bunker and Ballroom
Walking near a D.C. school raises the chance of being hit by a car, data shows
A Bad Look: Eight years ago, I argued the White House Correspondents’ Dinner should end. The years since have only made the case stronger. And Saturday wasn’t even the worst part.
Do Not Authorize The F@cking Ballroom. A message to frontline Democrats.
‘I was left unprotected’: Star golfer accuses school administrators of failing to remedy harassment from male teammates
Hegseth’s Useful Tool: Gen. Christopher LaNeve, the new chief of staff of the U.S. Army, has enjoyed a spectacular rise from obscurity, often at the expense of more popular generals that Pete Hegseth has purged—fueling suspicions that he’s become a proxy in Hegseth’s feuds and an active participant in his “slow-motion coup.”
A town of 7,000 planned so many data centers, it’s like adding 51 Walmarts
It’s time to fire Kash Patel
Making Sense of the Iran War
Originalist Judges Are Spitting On the Constitution and Think You Won’t Notice
HORRORS OF ZORRO: First claims of men being gang raped at Epstein’s Zorro ranch revealed in bombshell doc – amid probe over ‘buried girls’
Kick Him Right In the Ballroom
Elite impunity has fueled the fantasy that catastrophes are for other people.
A MODEST PROPOSAL: THE NEW YORK TIMES SHOULD FACT-CHECK ITS FOCUS GROUPS
Cultifying the U.S. Military
Tim Heidecker and Onion Chief Ben Collins on Their Infowars Takeover — and Bringing Down Alex Jones: “The Final Gasps of a Beached Whale”
Is the Justice Department lying about Saturday’s “shooting”?
‘The Apprentice’ Shows Donald Trump Morphing From Man to Cartoon
The Only Thing Americans Care About
Data Centers Reveal America’s Economic Development Brain Rot
Georgetown Law’s Finest
Mood in Russia turns bleak as war in Ukraine drags on and economy suffers
MAGA’s Strange Quiet After the Shooting
The hardest-working staff at the airport? These two good boys.
At Least The War Is Over
Pennsylvania Race Pits Corporate Defender Against Union Organizer. Ryan Crosswell is running to represent Pennsylvania’s Seventh District after a career helping bosses fight their workers.
Healthcare and Social Assistance have added nearly 1.8 million private-sector jobs in the US since the end of 2023 while all of other industries combined have lost 127,800 jobs.
Here is the source (Charlie Bilello) and a graph. In relative terms, is this good or bad for men?
The post USA sectoral shift fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Two weeks of notes, in the middle of which I went to Glasgow for three nights and then Edinburgh for the same. A “holiday”. I was lucky with the weather and had a good time.
I was touristing with my friend J, from Germany, and despite having seen very little of each other over the past 30+ years, we got on fine, saw several sights, drank nice coffees, and ate nice foods. Neither of us had been to Glasgow before, and there:
We left plenty of sights unseen. We stayed at the Premier Inn on St Enoch Square which was fine if typically characterless, although the square itself was a bit of an adventure of an evening… I imagine it’ll get “cleaned up”, for better or worse, when they redevelop the adjoining shopping centre soon.
Then off to Edinburgh where I stayed with my sister in Leith, not far from the awesome bright yellow offshore wind turbine foundations that – I assume arrive there before being taken out to their resting place. In Edinburgh:
All-in-all, very good. I’m glad to have visited Glasgow for the first time; very different to Edinburgh, both with the pros and cons. I could have had longer in both but I was pretty knackered by the end and ready to come home.
I felt a bit dazed for the first couple of days back home, after nearly a week of being constantly around other people. Decompressing. Then a day or two of being really pretty down for – amazingly – the first time in three or so weeks, followed by a bit of being furious at myself and the world for all the usual vague reasons. As I write, I’m back to an even keel.
§ I made a little progress on destroying the broken concrete pond just before I went away but haven’t yet continued, thanks to an aching shoulder and neck incurred on the first night away in an unfamiliar bed, which has not yet quite eased up.
§ This week I actually went to a gig! In Hereford! In desperately googling for things that might interest me in this county I came across this series of monthly gigs which looked like it might be interesting. Always hard to tell with things like that, and I would not have said “psych/wyrd folk” is necessarily my cup of tea, but worth a try.
So I went along this month and saw Alex Rex who was good and funny and bleak, supported by George Nash whose percussive guitar playing was very impressive (although I don’t really get “storytelling” as it applies to instrumental music). There were less than 20 people there in a small room, but I’ll be going back to try out more.
§ Rouvy, which I use for cycling on a bike trainer at home, got bought by Zwift and despite the inevitable “nothing will change” protestations from Rouvy, has me (and the folks on r/Rouvy) apprehensive about the future. I love Rouvy’s “real” videos of cycle routes compared to Zwift’s computer graphics, and I hope those won’t disappear…
§ In an effort to extend our WiFi more reliably to the other side of the house we got a UniFi Express 7 on the basis that (a) it might provide better WiFi than our Huawei 4G modem does, (b) it will give us a clearer idea of how strong/weak the WiFi is around the house, and (c) if we want to extend it, we can buy another of the same – further units can behave as mesh endpoints connected to the original one as a router.
Other options include ethernet cables (I do not want to cable the house), or powerline networking (I’m sceptical our power sockets etc will make this any better than wireless).
After a false start at the first attempt, today I got it all set up and working, with some help – after exhausting google and reddit – from Professor C.G.P. Tee. It turns out that even if I enable Bridge Mode on the modem, Three are still “using carrier-grade NAT (CGNAT)” upstream so there’s no simple escape from being “double NATed”. Which, as I understand it (I don’t), isn’t really a problem for our needs, so I’ve disabled Bridge Mode on the modem (but kept its WiFi turned off) as the simplest, least troublesome solution for now.
My first job was as a sysadmin, responsible for the company’s computer network etc. and I did not know anything about networking then. Very little has changed over the past three decades. But I do now have access to UniFi’s very nice and very complicated control panels to reinforce just how little I understand.
§ In Glasgow, J and I saw Rose of Nevada (2025, Mark Jenkin) at the nice Glasgow Film Theatre. It was good, interesting, slightly spooky.
And at home Mary and I watched Wake Up Dead Man (2025, Rian Johnson) which, like all Benoit Blanc mysteries, suffered because it includes the character Benoit Blanc. I was enjoying the ride up until he appeared and then proceedings dragged every time he was on screen, as if it was time itself slowing down that caused the movie to extend to an unjustifiable 1 hr 25 min.
§ Many things to be doing over the next couple of weeks for which I am bracing myself.
ESA and JAXA have finalized an agreement to collaborate on a mission to study the asteroid Apophis during its close flyby of Earth in 2029.
MDA Space is continuing work on a robotic arm for the lunar Gateway while it discusses the future of the project with the Canadian Space Agency.
1. What should be our Bayesian priors on von Neumann probes?
2. AI book mirrors.
3. Why power in Spain is so cheap.
4. The comments on Mick West here are pretty tough. We still do not know what it is, and yes the national security people have pondered these questions in advance. Most broadly, trust people who are in “explorer mode,” not debunker mode. Debunker mode is tempting, because you often end up right, and feeling good about yourself, but it also means you miss big discoveries when they come along.
5. More on the cell phone ban study.
6. Technological breakthroughs and the progress of science. The early papers based on digital computing techniques did very, very well, at least on average.
7. Germany’s deer calling championship.
8. 2019 appreciation of Genoa.
The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
I’ve mentioned this project in passing a couple of times in recent posts, and some of you have been following my updates in the chat section, but it’s time for an official launch.
My old WordPress blog, Ribbonfarm, which I retired in 2024, has now been thoroughly reimagined, rearchitected, and rebuilt as an archival, static museum site.
I may as well be the first to make the obvious joke. It’s now a mummy blog.
This project has been occupying about half my vibe-coding time for almost four months now.
Whether you’re only started reading me recently, and are hearing of Ribbonfarm for the first time, or have been reading me for long enough that you think you are already familiar with the old blog and its long shadow, I have lots to show you.
If you’re completely unfamiliar with Ribbonfarm, the opening orientation blurb on the front page should get you oriented and on your way to making sense of it.
For long time readers who are still here with me on Contraptions (or who thought I was dead and got this post forwarded to them): If you just visit the site through a search hit or a bookmarked post, you probably won’t notice anything different besides a cleaned up visual feel, and subtle signs that suggest it’s no longer a standard WordPress blog.
It is not. It is now a bespoke static site, ridiculously over-scaffolded with AI affordances lurking in the margins and menus. It took less than a couple of hundred dollars in tokens to build, and provided me with a lot of fun over several months.
It has already more than paid for itself, since it is essentially free to host in its current form, and I was paying ~$1500/year in hosting fees to host it as a live WPEngine WordPress site (even post-retirement, it remained high-traffic enough it needed high-end hosting to be hassle free). Big debt of gratitude to the WordPress ecosystem for serving me so well for so long though.
The decision to keep the basic surface appearance the same was partly pragmatic (obviously, old link structures had to be preserved) and partly aesthetic. It’s fun to engineer an uncanny experience where the surface feels familiar, but something tells you an alien logic has taken over the innards.
Not to bury the lede, the most alien piece of all is the curator of this museum-grade mummy blog, a digital ghost of myself, an archival self called vgr_zirp.
This is a chatbot backed by a fully digested set of source corpora — ribbonfarm itself, my full twitter archives (@vgr), my non ribbonfarm books from the era (Tempo, Be Slightly Evil, Art of Gig), and a complete bibliography of every book or essay ever mentioned on the blog, either by me, guest authors, or commenters.
If you’re interested in the technical details, it’s a RAG agent, backed by several vector embeddings, based on a modified version of the Aaron Mars’ soul document approach to generating personas, exposed as both a limited-turn chatbot and an MCP.
I was initially considering a fine-tuning approach (which would have involved training an agent to talk/write like me), but quickly realized that a RAG agent (which talks more generically, but in more on-point ways, on the basis of explicit content retrieval) would actually behave in a more interesting and useful way. Full details here.
Go ahead, try it out. I’m going to be slowly improving it as I understand the tech better. There are a couple of rate-limiters and circuit-breakers in place since I have to pay for API usage to host the bot and MCP, but it should be usably available most of the time, so long as there aren’t random traffic spikes.
Building this agent was a surprisingly trivial last step after I had done all the pre-work of processing all the content into multiple suitable AI-digested forms. But that digestion work required learning to use (via Claude Code of course), many non-trivial, non-retail AI tools, such as Voyage.ai for generating embeddings, Pinecone for hosting the vectors, the Claude API for tagging, clustering, and lexicon-mining, and so on. Merging and weight-balancing multiple source corpora also took some effort and still isn’t perfect. For a while it was way over-weighting twitter archives because that data is both voluminous and chunked up in ways that semantic search hits it more.
It is more than an anthropomorphic, narcissistic UI though. I’ve myself found it useful to talk to, to access tendencies of thought I’ve personally outgrown, but which haven’t outlived their usefulness.
As the name vgr_zirp suggests, this bot is meant to embody, and own, a ZIRPy outlook on life, the universe, and everything (ZIRP stands for zero interest rate policy, for those who don’t follow macroeconomics memes). It was (a significant early contributor to Ribbonfarm) who inspired this name with what is probably one of the best tweets ever.
I hope my naming convention catches on. If you have enough material from the 2010s to make your own soul-bot, I suggest naming it <your_handle>_zirp. Maybe it can be the horse_ebooks pattern of the early AI era.
For people who don’t like my more recent Act 2 tendencies of thought and style of writing, chatting with vgr_zirp might even be more interesting and valuable than talking to me live. I’ve seen at least a few people complain on X that my new writing sucks. Well, vgr_zirp is the best I can offer you now.
The first 4 years of Ribbonfarm, it was just me blogging alone, and occasionally exchanging emails with readers. Starting in 2011 though, when I went on a cross-country road trip, moving from DC to Vegas, on a sort of budget book trip to promote my book Tempo, I began meeting readers regularly in person, and perhaps more importantly, they began meeting each other. And I started accepting guest posts.
A series of particularly well-attended meetups 2011 coalesced into Refactor Camp, and a couple of “Refactorings” Facebook groups that were, for several years, extremely active, and for many of the members, their main online hangout.
This is what people began to refer to as the “Ribbonfarm scene.” It grew somewhat by accident, and began to wind down after the last Refactor Camp in 2019, largely due to my own sharply declining social energy. I mostly do 1:1 coffee meetups these days.
You can explore the history of the decade-long scene and the blog on the new history page and the Refactor Camp page.
People who were part of the scene, do share any suggestions on how to improve these pages. If you have any interesting material to contribute, like better photos from Refactor Camp, feel free to send them over.
If you were a reader, but never part of the scene, you might enjoy this peek into it. If you’re too young to have been part of the scene, hopefully these pages will give you a sense of what the blogosphere was like back in the day.
Looking back, and exploring the archives with the new tools (you can find these under the Explore menu on the home page, and there is also a proper semantic search), I’m struck by the extent to which the scene was both a product of its times, and of way more minds than I thought.
There were 60 contributors over 17 years. And while I was the most active contributor (875 of the 1116 posts), followed by Sarah Perry (45 posts), a great many less frequent contributors, such as Brian Skinner and Artem Litvinovich, had viral hits that disproportionately shaped the perception and influence of the blog.
It wasn’t easy to empirically assess the external impact beyond the scene’s insiders (many signal sources are now dead or too diffuse), 4 of the top 10 posts in the viral hits list are not by me. Right now, this list mainly relies on Hacker News and Reddit statistics, but many influential posts went viral via other pathways that aren’t captured. I’m pretty proud of this statistic. Posts that landed on Slashdot, HN and Reddit now have footer sessions linking to those discussions.
The new tools also allow you to explore the comments more thoroughly for the first time, and I feel some regret about not curating that better when the site was active. There is a lot of fascinating thinking in the comments, which has now been surfaced by an AI-driven quality-scoring algorithm that I think has done a surprisingly good job. The Top Comments page now makes for fascinating browsing.
Belatedly, I have to thank the commenting community (over 5000, contributing over 13k comments) for all the less visible thought and effort they put into making the blog what it was.
It’s already a bit passe to talk about the inside baseball of how you used Claude Code for a project, but for those of you interested in that, I had Claude keep a detailed Dev Log going throughout the project.
It’s not over yet. There are a few more major things I want to do, to turn it into a true mummy blog, future-proofed and preserved for all eternity, complete with a curse for whoever reads it. But it’s pretty close already.
When I wrote my Archival Selves post a few weeks ago, I didn’t think I’d literally have one up and running by now. As with every other AI project, things move far faster than you expect, by orders of magnitude.
That old meme I used to share as an excuse for procrastinating now needs to be flipped. My problem is now probably that I have to shut down my dev environment in order to get myself out of execution paralysis. AI has completely solved the problem of setting up at least digital dev environments.
One of my more popular posts from Ribbonfarm was The Key to Act Two. Finishing this project and setting up my archival vgr_zirp self feels like more than a project finished to my satisfaction. It feels a bit cathartic.
Externalizing and animating a whole long chapter of my life has created an odd sort of distance from it, and also a sense of increased freedom around things I’m doing now. You could say archiving my Act 1 self has unlocked my Act 2 self, which had been carrying baggage around. That baggage has now become pseudo-sentient and can take care of itself without me having to worry about it. It can even be my friend now, instead of a nagging to-do list.
The whole experience got me thinking about how AI has given us a new way of relating to ourselves, as a sequence of regenerated selves, like Doctor Who. I had a series going on Ribbonfarm called Regenerations, but creating an archival self is a real regeneration at some level, not a metaphoric one. Comparable to older phenomena like social death or being canceled, but positive. I highly recommend it.
I suspect I’m going to be using the vgr_zirp bot and MCP regularly from now on, to consult my archival self about ongoing projects for my current live self. If you end up using them regularly too, drop me a line about how and why.
I’m now tagging this project maintenance mode, but if you have good ideas about how to improve it, or spot serious bugs and issues, let me know.
The Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais probably closes the book on the use of the Voting Rights Act to ensure Black voting rights in the South. The decision is being taken as a blow to Black voting rights — and even as indicative of the court’s racist leanings — but I wouldn’t jump to those conclusions. The redistricting effort that Callais ends may not have been of unequivocal benefit to the Southern Blacks it was designed to aid. And while it could damage Democratic prospects in 2026, it might help them in the longer run.
During the 1980s, the NAACP, Jesse Jackson’s PUSH, and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) teamed up with leading Republicans, who donated money and redistricting experts, to create majority-minority districts in the South that would guarantee Black representation in Congress. Maybe that was a worthy effort. It led, in effect, to the racial integration of the U.S. House of Representatives. But as Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) warned (and as I have written repeatedly over the years), it doomed the Democrats to political irrelevance in what had once been the Democratic South. And it also made possible the passage of bills and election of officials that disadvantaged the minority voters it was supposed to help.
The redistricting concentrated Democratic votes in a few districts, but made it difficult, if not impossible, for the Democrats to build multiracial coalitions in other districts that had formerly been the province of centrist and liberal white Democrats like Rep. Butler Derrick of South Carolina who went down to defeat in the 1990s. The redistricting also created the bigoted impression that the Democrats in the South were the “Black party.” It is hard to remember but in the 1970s, Mississippi had a pro-civil rights administration led by Gov. Cliff Finch (D).
As Carl Hulse suggests in an excellent article in the New York Times, just as the 1980s-’90s redistricting came back to bite the Democrats, the current effort could come back to haunt the Republicans by creating more competitive districts. That may require, however, legislative or judicial efforts to limit the crazy political gerrymandering that, at Donald Trump’s instigation, both parties are engaged in.
Imagine taking a macroeconomics paper and adding a little button at the end “Press this button to update this paper with the latest macro data.”
All of a sudden you have multiple papers rather than one, and no single canonical version. It is the latter versions, not created directly by the authors, that people will look at.
Imagine adding another button, to either micro or macro papers “Please rerun these results using what the AI thinks might be five other different yet still plausible specifications.”
Then you have more papers yet.
Ultimately, why not just build a “meta-paper,” using AI, to answer any possible question about the subject area under consideration. This meta-paper would allow the reader, using AI, to make many sorts of modifications and additions to the basic work. The meta-paper also would allow the reader to add new data, to run additional robustness checks, and to do whatever else you might think of. Once again, the canonical version of the paper evolves away.
A researcher might spend a significant part of his or her career building such a meta-paper. Imagine a meta-paper, or sometimes I call it a “box,” devoted to answering questions about say fiscal policy, minimum wage hikes, or maybe the Industrial Revolution. Fed researchers would spend their entire careers, not writing papers, but improving the Fed’s “box” that answers questions about monetary policy and also prudential supervision.
Who will be good at doing such things? Is it the people today who become the top economists, or not? Will it be a highly decentralized endeavor, or, given the compute and team work requirements, a highly centralized one?
Economics is going to change a lot, as will many of the other sciences.
It is funny, and tragic, how much some of you are still obsessed with writing and publishing “papers.”
The post Will AI kill the research paper? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
I had a stimulating 3 hour discussion with famed podcaster Lawrence Krauss a few days ago, about my forthcoming book Moral Economics. Almost immediately after we concluded, it turned out that neither of us had recorded it. (We did a shorter makeup later.)
Here's his tweet on that:
Right after I stepped off the plane in New Orleans, I saw Louis Armstrong, in beautiful bronze and larger than life. It wasn’t the most accurate depiction—his arms were too short, his head too large.
But Louis was laughing it all off.
That’s what he always did—laugh things off. And this stubby Satchmo had reason to laugh. That’s because, for all his faults, he still looked better than the city’s previous attempt at an airport memorial.
The story of how Armstrong got into the terminal tells you a lot about the city’s complicated relationship with its most famous musician—who left New Orleans in 1922, and never moved back.
Instead of commissioning a new statue for the airport, they just removed an existing one on Rampart Street. (And it had been done pro bono in the first place—so the city never paid for the work.)

It’s a good reminder that musicians come and go in this city. But the truth is, they mostly go.

A few days ago I wrote a post about why Democrats can’t build a welfare state by taxing only billionaires:
I wrote:
Once upon a time, class politics pitted the middle class and poor against the upper classes; now, American politics may reflect a status conflict between millionaires and billionaires. If Democrats have become the party of the millionaires-against-billionaires, that would explain why their tax policies are focused on soaking the ultra-rich while easing the burden of the merely-rich.
As if to emphasize this point, just a couple of days later, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declared that “There’s a certain level of wealth that’s unearned…You can’t earn a billion dollars.”
This immediately raises the question: What amount of wealth does AOC think you can “earn”? A hundred million dollars? Ten million? Presumably there’s some number of millions that she thinks can be earned. That definitely fits the “party of millionaires-against-billionaires” framing from my post.
But the more important question is: Is AOC right? Can a billion dollars be “earned”?
It depends on what “earned” means, of course. To most people, the word probably means something very vague — basically, “I think you deserve this amount of money.” You can come up with more specific definitions if you want. For example, if you’re a socialist, you might define only labor income as “earned” and capital income as “unearned”. If you’re a free-marketer, you might define “earned” income as your marginal product — i.e., the amount by which society would be poorer if you had never been born. And so on.
But I’m not sure how useful that sort of exercise is. The socialist idea that capital income is unearned is just a moral judgement, so it leads to endless emotional debates over whether taking risk, making capital more available, etc. are things people ought to get paid for. The free-market concept is more interesting, because it’s objective, but it’s pretty unknowable — unless you’re in the movie It’s a Wonderful Life, you can’t really run the natural experiment of removing someone from the timeline.1 On top of that, most people simply won’t accept such simple, restrictive definitions of “earned” and “unearned”. So these arguments just never resolve.
But when AOC says “unearned”, she seems to mean something else:
You can’t earn a billion dollars. You just can’t earn that. You can get market power. You can break rules. You can do all sorts of things. You can abuse labor laws. You can pay people less than what they’re worth. But you can’t earn that, right?
AOC seems to mean that in order for someone to get a billion dollars, they have to do something that society ought to forbid. In other words, billionaires can’t get their wealth just by being lucky; they have to get it by being bad.
The obvious rebuttal here is to invoke Taylor Swift. The singer’s net worth is estimated at $2 billion. She got those billions from her share of ticket sales, merchandising, and music sales; unlike many artists, Swift owns her entire music catalog.
Formally, AOC is right in this case — Swift did become a billionaire with market power. Intellectual property — the ability to own your own music catalog and charge people to download your songs — is a form of government-granted monopoly. But would AOC really claim that every writer, every photographer, every artist isn’t earning their income? I doubt it. Meanwhile, Swift didn’t obviously break any rules, abuse labor laws, pay anyone less than they’re worth, etc.
But OK, Taylor Swift is the exception here. Most billionaires are more traditional types of businesspeople, who don’t obviously have celebrity superstar appeal or sell their personal artistic output. How should we think about the typical billionaire? Is AOC right that they only amass vast fortunes by either breaking the law and/or hurting the economy?
If so, it means that the vast majority of the U.S. economy — along with both the wealth and the jobs that economy has generated for the middle class — is built on illegality and unfairness. That’s a breathtaking indictment of the entire capitalist system, and it goes way too far. We do need to think about how much to tax the super-rich, but that discussion should absolutely not start from the assumption that all great fortunes were ill-gotten.
Off the top of my head:
• Lightning (how does it happen?)
• Sleep; dreams (why do they exist?)
• Glass (thermodynamics of formation)
• Turbulence (when does it start?)
• Morphogenesis (how does a creature know what should go where?)
• Rain (it seems to start faster than models would predict)
• Ice (dynamics of slipperiness)
• Static electricity (which material will donate electrons?)
• General anaesthetic. (And the mechanism of a lot of drugs, e.g. paracetamol.)
That is from Patrick Collison. It is a further interesting question how many of those questions will be answered by what is sometimes called AGI. Perhaps none of them? In at least some of those cases, what is scarce is experimental data, not reasoning per se.
The post Which are the most common everyday phenomena that we don’t properly understand? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
1. Do chatbots ever follow the interests of advertisers?
2. Approaching the Star Trek universal translator.
3. Jon Haidt response to the new cell phone study.
4. U.S. electricity prices have been flat since June.
5. Friend Alla Keselman now has a Substack.
6. I am enjoying the new Elizabeth Strout novel The Things We Never Say. It is arguably “too American” for me, and also “too New England,” still it is quite good.
The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Up betimes and to my office, whither sooner than ordinary comes Mr. Hater desiring to speak a word to me alone, which I was from the disorder of his countenance amused at, and so the poor man began telling me that by Providence being the last Lord’s day at a meeting of some Friends upon doing of their duties, they were surprised, and he carried to the Counter, but afterwards released; however, hearing that Sir W. Batten do hear of [it,] he thought it good to give me an account of it, lest it might tend to any prejudice to me. I was extraordinary surprised with it, and troubled for him, knowing that now it is out it is impossible for me to conceal it, or keep him in employment under me without danger to myself. I cast about all I could, and did give him the best advice I could, desiring to know if I should promise that he would not for the time to come commit the same, he told me he desired that I would rather forbear to promise that, for he durst not do it, whatever God in His providence shall do with him, and that for my part he did bless God and thank me for all the love and kindness I have shewed him hitherto. I could not without tears in my eyes discourse with him further, but at last did pitch upon telling the truth of the whole to Mr. Coventry as soon as I could, and to that end did use means to prevent Sir W. Batten (who came to town last night) from going to that end to-day, lest he might doe it to Sir G. Carteret or Mr. Coventry before me; which I did prevail and kept him at the office all the morning.
At noon dined at home with a heavy heart for the poor man, and after dinner went out to my brother’s, and thence to Westminster, where at Mr. Jervas’s, my old barber, I did try two or three borders and perriwiggs, meaning to wear one; and yet I have no stomach [for it,] but that the pains of keeping my hair clean is so great. He trimmed me, and at last I parted, but my mind was almost altered from my first purpose, from the trouble that I foresee will be in wearing them also. Thence by water home and to the office, where busy late, and so home to supper and bed, with my mind much troubled about T. Hater.
Robin and I have been spending time with friends here in [UNDISCLOSED LOCATION]. So really taking today off.
WebRTC is designed to degrade and drop my prompt during poor network conditions.
wtf my dude
WebRTC aggressively drops audio packets to keep latency low. If you’ve ever heard distorted audio on a conference call, that’s WebRTC baybee. The idea is that conference calls depend on rapid back-and-forth, so pausing to wait for audio is unacceptable.
…but as a user, I would much rather wait an extra 200ms for my slow/expensive prompt to be accurate. After all, I’m paying good money to boil the ocean, and a garbage prompt means a garbage response. It’s not like LLMs are particularly responsive anyway.
But I’m not allowed to wait. It’s impossible to even retransmit a WebRTC audio packet within a browser; we tried at Discord. The implementation is hard-coded for real-time latency or else.
— Luke Curley, OpenAI’s WebRTC Problem, in response to How OpenAI delivers low-latency voice AI at scale
In case you’re wondering what kind of a news day it was, President Donald J. Trump announced that the “Department of War” was releasing “Government files related to Alien and Extraterrestrial Life, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, and Unidentified Flying Objects.” The president posted: “Have Fun and Enjoy!”
It’s hard to see the release of this information at this moment as anything more than a distraction from the many stories in the news that show the administration in an unflattering light.
The biggest of those stories was not that Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy took his family on a seven-month road trip to film a television series called The Great American Road Trip while he was supposed to be doing his job as secretary of transportation, or that he told Fox & Friends this morning that “it fits any budget to do a road trip” on a day when the national average for a gallon of gas was $4.54.
It was not the story, written by David A. Fahrenthold and Luke Broadwater and published in the New York Times, that Trump gave a no-bid $6.9 million contract to reseal the joints, waterproof, and paint bright blue the Reflecting Pool in front of the Lincoln Memorial. Such contracts are supposed to be reviewed and put out for bids, but Trump ignored the review process and used an exemption designed to prevent “serious injury, financial or other, to the government” to award a no-bid contract to Atlantic Industrial Coatings, which has never before won a federal contract but which had worked at one of his golf clubs, because he wanted the work done before the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 2026.
The contract is for more than triple the $1.8 million Trump promised, and officials say the repairs will last for seven to ten years, rather than the 50 years Trump claimed. Even that might be generous: One expert warned that the motorcade the president took onto the pool yesterday to review the project was heavy enough to have sprung the newly-repaired joints between the concrete slabs that make up the pool bed.
It was not the story by economist Justin Wolfers in the New York Times explaining that the Defense Department’s claim that the war on Iran has cost taxpayers $25 billion tallies only the price of the 2,000 spent Tomahawk and Patriot missiles, the airplanes lost, and the other matériel used. It does not measure the lives lost, the disruption in global oil markets, companies shut down (like Spirit Airlines), heightened geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates, lower stock prices, lower economic growth, Iran’s new ability to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz to fund its nuclear ambitions, and the new need for countries to increase military spending. Wolfers notes that the Iraq war cost about $3 trillion and estimates the Iran war “will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and very possibly trillions.”
In any case, Jonathan Lemire of The Atlantic reported today that Trump is “bored” with the war and wants to move on. Five of Trump’s aides and advisors told Lemire that Trump is convinced he can sell any agreement as a win, but so far Iran is unwilling to bail Trump out of the war he started.
It was not the story in the Washington Post by Brianna Sacks and Kevin Crowe reporting that under Trump, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which helps people prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters, has been denying aid to states that have Democratic-led governments while speeding it to Republican-dominated states.
It was not the story by Mark Olalde of ProPublica reporting that the Trump administration has granted a two-year pause on compliance with the Clean Air Act to more than 180 facilities, like coal power plants and medical sterilizers, that are polluting in 38 states and Puerto Rico. The administration sidelined the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by using a presidential exemption that can be tapped “if the technology to implement the standard is not available and it is in the national security interests of the United States to do so.”
This authority has never been used before, and other utilities say they are using the pollution controls the administration claims don’t exist. Trump has also invoked the national security justification for the pauses, claiming that the U.S. is in a national energy emergency out of concern that emerging industries, like AI and the data centers on which AI relies will not be able to get the huge amounts of energy they need. White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Olalde: “The President has provided regulatory relief from certain burdensome Clean Air Act requirements due to national security concerns that critical industries would no longer be able to operate under such stringent standards.”
Democratic senators Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Adam Schiff of California have introduced a bill requiring the president to get Congress’s approval for such pauses in the future. Whitehouse noted that Trump’s exemptions show a willingness to “abuse every loophole available to pollute for free, damn the health consequences for Americans.”
It was not the story that the Court of International Trade in New York found Trump’s 10% global tariffs, imposed after the Supreme Court declared his “Liberation Day” tariffs of April 2025 unconstitutional, to be illegal. Trump is expected to appeal. Yesterday, he threatened to impose “much higher” tariffs on the European Union if it does not approve a trade agreement with the U.S. by July 4.
The biggest story of the day was not even the dedication of the 22-foot gold statue of Trump installed at his golf course in Miami. Marth McHardy of the Daily Beast reported that a group of crypto investors paid for the $450,000 statue as part of a promotional push for their new memecoin.
No, the biggest story of the day was that after voters in Virginia turned out in record numbers to approve a new temporary congressional district map on April 21 to garner four more seats for Democrats, the Virginia state supreme court struck down the referendum. Virginia voters had agreed to the change in order to counter gerrymandering imposed by Republican legislators in Texas, Ohio, Tennessee, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida that is expected to gain them an additional 14 seats across the country. (Following last week’s Louisiana v. Callais Supreme Court decision, Republicans are hoping to change the lines in Louisiana, Alabama, and South Carolina to take four more.) So far, voters in California have agreed to a temporary redistricting of California to pick up four Democratic seats there.
The court split on partisan lines, saying the process of passing the referendum violated the state’s constitution. With Trump’s job approval ratings in the low 30s, anger at rising prices, frustration at the war on Iran, dislike of the administration’s attacks on immigrants, and growing outrage at the extraordinary corruption of the administration, Republicans were so worried they would lose control of the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections that they began the gerrymandering wars. Now those wars have turned in their favor.
“Huge win for the Republican Party, and America, in Virginia,” Trump gloated on social media. “The Virginia Supreme Court has just struck down the Democrats’ horrible gerrymander. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
In the end, the UFO files red herring from today’s news dump didn’t appear to work. Former representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) called the UFO files a distraction from the Iran war and said: “Unless they roll out live aliens and test demo UFOs or actually admit what we know this really is then I have way better things to do on this Friday.” The chair of the Michigan Democratic Party also commented: “If any aliens had flown over Epstein Island, you could be damn sure Trump would keep their secret. Whether aliens are out there or not, I’m more concerned about the American people here on Earth struggling to pay for food [and] rent.”
And Democrats certainly didn’t miss the Virginia decision. Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD), the top-ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, posted: “Today, in an outrageous outburst of right-wing judicial activism following the Roberts Court’s Callais decision, the Virginia Supreme Court has struck down the will of the voters. But democracy won’t end with right-wingers in black robes. Now is the time to campaign like never before for strong democracy, freedom and progress. The American people will have the final say in November. Organize!”
—
Notes:
https://gasprices.aaa.com/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/opinion/hegseth-war-cost.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/05/08/wildfire-fema-grants-delay/
https://www.propublica.org/article/clean-air-act-exemptions-trump-emails
https://apnews.com/article/trump-global-tariffs-trade-court-df01218b89ca925015fe41c700d6beb9
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/08/trump-tariffs-trade-eu-europe-deal.html
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-golden-statue-honored-in-bizarre-dedication/
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5870263-virginia-redistricting-ruling-democrats/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/05/08/virginia-court-invalidates-redistricting-measure/
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/05/iran-war-trump-deal/687100/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/us/politics/pentagon-ufo-files.html
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This is the fourth part of our series (I, II, III) looking at how Carthage’s complex, multi-ethnic armies were raised and structured. Last week, we looked at Carthage’s unusual system for raising vassal forces: long-serving Carthaginian generals could inhabit positions within the personalist, non-state mobilization systems of Numidia and Iberia, enabling them to access military resources (mostly manpower) as a non-state ‘Big Man’ would, through kinship and patronage networks.
Merging Carthage’s state-based conscription system with the non-state mobilization systems of Numidia and Iberia would already be a remarkable achievement and would have given Carthage an ‘all call’ peak mobilization somewhere north of 125,000 men, easily eclipsing the military mobilization potential of the major powers of the Hellenistic East. But of course Carthage isn’t fighting the heirs of Alexander in the third century. Carthage is fighting Rome.
So they are going to need more.
That means recruiting from outside of the territory that Carthage notionally controls (directly or indirectly), which in turn means allies and mercenaries. Fortunately for us, most of the peoples who are going to end up as Carthaginian allies at one point will serve in their armies as mercenaries at other points.
But first, as always, raising large armies of mercenaries, subject conscripts, vassal warlords and allies is expensive! If you too want to help me invade Italy with a multi-ethnic army of diverse origins in a doomed effort to stop the Roman Republic, you can help by supporting this project over at Patreon. If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).
Now untangling conscript subjects vs. vassals vs. mercenaries vs. external allies is quite complicated and as noted, our sources often do not give us a lot of information to help us separate this out. Worse yet, the status of individual groups changes over time: as we’ve already seen, the Iberians go from being mercenaries to being vassals as a result of the Barcid conquests in Spain.
However, we do get, in a very strange way, a ‘snapshot’ of the different categories in the system, during the Second Punic War. Hannibal, you will recall, invades Italy in 218 and wins major victories at Trebia (218), Trasimene (217) and Cannae (216). This was a major enough sequence of events that other powers were paying attention and in this case, the ruler of Macedon, the Antigonid king Philip V saw an opportunity here. Rome was a potential rival for him in the Adriatic, after all and by 218 Rome had already developed significant influence in coastal Illyria. So in 215, Philip V sends ambassadors to Hannibal to conclude a treaty with Carthage and then in 214, jumps into the war on Hannibal’s side.
In practice, this comes to relatively little right away – the Roman navy keeps Philip V stuck on the far side of the Adriatic and this First Macedonian War (214-205) produces no major engagements between Rome and Macedon, though it does set the stage for future wars. So this is a very important event for the future of the Greek East and the Roman Republic in the second century, but not a crucial turning point in Hannibal’s war or Carthage’s future.

But it provides us a fascinating bit of evidence for the structure of Carthaginian power in the Second Punic War, because a fragment of Polybius preserves most of the text of the treaty (Polyb. 7.9). Ancient treaties are both political and religious documents – the gods are called to witness them (in this case, both Greek and Carthaginian gods!) – and so they tend to be quite precise for religious as well as political reasons. And that’s handy for us because it means that Philip V’s ambassadors and the Carthaginians both are going to want to be very precise about exactly who is and is not covered or obligated by their treaty. That gives us the following passage; the participants of the treaty are actually spelled out twice (once for a list of who Philip V is going to help and then again in reverse as a list of who is going to help Philip V), but I’ll just include the first list for brevity. I’ve translated this myself because I found that the generally available translations (particularly W.R. Paton’s translation) often fudge the literal meaning a fair bit in order to convey the general meaning, but here I want to be precise (Polyb. 7.9.5-6):
…that King Philip and the Macedonians and the other Greeks in so far as they are allies of him shall protect the Carthaginian lords and Hannibal the general and those with him and those subject to Carthage, in so far as they share the same laws, and the Uticans, and such cities and peoples as hearken to Carthage, and the soldiers and the allies and all the cities and peoples with whom we are in alliance in Italy and Gaul and Liguria and anyone we may enter into friendship and alliance in these lands.
The formula gets repeated with only a slight alteration again going the other way in Polyb. 7.9.7, but we needn’t repeat it here. So we can see the two sets of parties to this treaty. On the one side, we have the Macedonian side: Philip V himself (as king), the Macedonians (his people) and his Greek allies, which in the original Greek takes just 13 words to spell out. It is relatively simple. On the other side, we have the complex mess that is Carthage, which in the original Greek takes some sixty-eight words in Greek (73 in English) to express. So let’s take a minute to break these categories apart and see if we can’t figure out who exactly is meant by each.
First we have, “the Carthaginian lords and Hannibal the general and those with him.” Paton includes here ‘the Carthaginians’ as well, but they are notably absent in the actual text: the Carthaginian people are not part of the first clause (those to be protected by Philip) but do show up for the second one (those to do protecting of Philip), which might speak to the text’s understanding of how political power in Carthage works. The ‘lords’ here must be the Carthaginian adirim, representing Carthage as a whole, so Philip is promising to protect the Carthaginian state (and Hannibal and Hannibal’s army), represented by the adirim but to be protected by the Carthaginians as a people. In any case, this group’s role in the treaty is clear: these are the actual Carthaginians.
Next we have, “those subject to Carthage, in so far as they share the same laws, and the Uticans.” Here we evidently have some precise legalese the exact meaning of which is somewhat lost to us, but it seems clear that these are the North Africans (sans Numidia), Carthage’s subjects. I think the ‘in so far as they share the same laws’ bit is meant to divide out three groups: the vassals (coming in the next bit), the Punic and Libyan subjects (who are the ones sharing laws), and Utica. Utica was, after Carthage, the next largest and important Phoenician colony in North Africa and the fact that the Uticans are broken out here implies to me that unlike the rest of Carthage’s North African subjects, they still maintained some degree of autonomia (‘autonomy,’ literally ‘self-laws’), which is to say the ability to make their own laws internally (whereas the other communities just had to do what Carthage told them, that is, ‘they share the same laws’ in the sense that Carthage makes the laws for everyone).1 So then those ‘subject to Carthage’ who also share the same laws are Carthage’s fully subordinate North African dependencies, the various other Phoenician, Libyan and Liby-Phoenician communities.
Then we have, “and such cities and peoples as hearken to Carthage.” The word here is ὑπήκοος (hupekoos), an adjective meaning ‘hearkening, answering, obeying,’ which gets used in other authors (Xenophon, Thucydides, etc.) to mean ‘subjects’ or even ‘subject allies.’ This, I think, is intended to encompass Carthage’s ‘vassals’ – Numidia and the Iberian communities – which do not share the same laws as Carthage (they’re internally autonomous) but who ‘obey’ or ‘listen to’ Carthage when Carthage commands. We’re thus recognizing that Carthage has different classes of dependent communities: Utica, subject but self-governing, then the other North Africans, subject and non-self governing, then the vassals – cities and peoples hearkening to Carthage – who still have their own polities, but who obey Carthage.
Finally, we have “and the soldiers and the allies and all the cities and peoples with whom we are in friendship in Italy and Gaul and Liguria and anyone we may enter into friendship and alliance in these lands.” We ‘we’ here is in the text and the ‘we’ is clearly the Carthaginians, but it is an odd grammatical quirk to shift from the third to the second person here. In any case here, I think, we have our allies and mercenaries. The need to specify here that the treaty considers for groups with whom there is philia, ‘friendship:’ the soldiers and the allies and all the cities and peoples with whom there is an alliance (the relative clause, to my reading, is picking up all four groups: soldiers, allies, cities and peoples) speaks to the diverse range of Carthage’s coalition in Italy.
As I take it, the soldiers and allies here includes the men actually serving in arms under Carthage and is framed to capture both men serving for money (the soldiers) and those serving because their home polity has thrown in with Hannibal (the allies). Meanwhile, the cities and peoples then captures those home polities themselves; that distinction might matter because of course by this point some of Hannibal’s soldiers have been with his army and away from home for some time and – in the fragmented structure of non-state polities – may understand themselves to have a direct relationship with Hannibal apart from their community’s alliance with him. As we’re going to see, the cities are probably Hannibal’s newfound Italian allies (revolting from Rome) while the peoples are probably Hannibal’s only-slightly-older allies in Gaul and Liguria. Finally, we get a rider that should Hannibal contract new allies (which in 215 he stills hopes to do, peeling away Rome’s alliance system), they too are included.
So who are all these allied peoples and cities? The answer is largely ‘Gauls and Italians,’ but lets take a closer look.
Like the Iberians, we hear about Gauls in Carthaginian armies long before Carthage was projecting significant military power directly into their homelands. The first report we have of Gallic mercenaries in Carthaginian armies is the first meaningful point at which we can assess Carthage’s armies: the Battle of Himera (480), (Hdt 7.165). A century later, Diodorus has the Carthaginians enlisting Gallic and Ligurian mercenaries (the Ligurians were a non-Gallic people heavily influenced by Gallic neighbors; they fought in the same manner) in 341 in their war against Timoleon of Syracuse (Diod. Sic. 16.73.3). Gallic mercenaries are fairly common additions from that point onward to Carthaginian armies. Thus, Gauls and Ligurians are a component of the Carthaginian army that revolts at the start of the Mercenary War in 241 (Polyb. 1.67.7). In short, Carthage is recruiting mercenaries from the Gallic world from basically the moment we can see them clearly.
Again we’re not well-informed about how Gallic warriors would have been recruited as mercenaries, but something along the lines of what we hypothesized in Iberia – recruitment through aristocrats using access to Carthage’s imported prestige goods as the incentive as much if not more than money – would be what I’d expect. Imported prestige goods are a real presence in middle and late La Tène sites, with goods from the broader Mediterranean world – Greek/Roman/Eastern artwork, fine pottery, wine, etc. – clearly commanding a status premium.
Once again, this system – such as it was (given how imperfectly we can observe it) – is clearly fundamentally altered by the Barcids, although in this case by Hannibal rather than his father Hamilcar. Hannibal’s decision to march his army from Spain through southern Gaul (modern Occitania and Provence) over the Alps and into Italy meant taking a Carthaginian army through the territories of multiple Gallic civitates. That is naturally going to change the way these polities relate to Carthage. In practice, the first part of Hannibal’s march – before he gets to the Alps – is bumpy. We don’t have the space here for all the twists and turns, but essentially despite Hannibal sending ambassadors ahead to try to arrange for free passage, at several points he has to fight his way through and between that fighting and the Alps themselves, he loses close to half of the army he departed with.

However, he drops out of the Alps into what the Romans would call Cisalpine Gaul – northern Italy in the Po River Valley, which was at the time inhabited by a number of Gallic peoples as well as some non-Gallic peoples heavily influenced by Gallic culture (like the Ligurians or Veneti). Hannibal seems to be counting on these fellows to refill his ranks and he has good reason to bet on this: the Romans control of this region was relatively recent, the result of campaigning in the 220s (most notably the Battle of Telamon in 225). The Gallic civitates still had their own governments, though it is clear our sources understand them as at least somewhat under the ‘thumb’ of Rome – recently conquered, restive and ready for a rematch. Which Hannibal promptly supplied. Indeed, Polybius presents Hannibal as acutely aware that he needs to rack up big victories quickly in order to get these Gauls to shift durably to his side and stay there, but of course he does win big victories and the region rises against the Romans (except for the Cenomani, who seem to have been, for whatever reason, the most pro-Roman of the Cisalpine Gauls).
However Hannibal does not replicate the Iberian system in Cisalpine Gaul. The Gallic civitates of Cisalpine Gaul are going to be supporting Hannibal actively, militarily for a decade and a half, but we hear no reports of diplomatic marriages of the sort we saw in Spain (which, mind you, the Barcid system in Spain was only 19 years old at most when Hannibal crossed the Alps, so these aren’t wildly different time frames), no declarations of Hannibal as supreme general of the Gauls or anything like that.
Instead, as we’ve seen, the treaty with Philip V pretty clearly sets the Gauls in their own category as allied ethne, ‘peoples.’ And that equally fits with Polybius’ repeated suggestion that Hannibal himself is concerned about the fragility of those alliances until Cannae. Presumably after Cannae, the Gauls all recognize that they are ‘in for a penny, in for a pound’ and must be at open war with the Romans no matter what, cementing the alliances that will largely hold for the rest of the war. So the Gauls of the Second Punic War seem to be external allies of Carthage – they are in Carthaginian armies because their polities are allied with Carthage, rather than because they have become subjects (although one imagines that may have happened had the Carthaginians won). Indeed, in some cases we’re told that Hannibal forms formal alliances with these civitates, as with the Boii, for instance (Polyb. 3.67).
As we discussed when we looked at ‘tribal’ armies, the non-state Gallic mobilization system could put out a lot of military power relative to the small size of Gallic civitates, and we see that here. The Cisalpine Gauls were hardly ‘fresh’ in 218 – remember, they’re just coming off of losing a major war with the Romans quite badly – but Hannibal is able to acquire substantial troops from them. Hannbial absorbs something like 9,000 Gallic infantry and 5,000 Gallic cavalry – that’s a lot of horse-born aristocrats – by the Battle of Trebia and by Cannae his army probably has around 16,000 Gallic infantry in it. Hannibal’s Gallic contingent does seem to wane over time – after Trasimene, he moves south in Italy, effectively cutting himself off from his Gallic recruiting grounds in an effort to spur a larger revolt in Italy. That said, Hasdrubal’s army, defeated at the Battle of the Metaurus (207) attempting to repeat Hannibal’s crossing of the Alps to reinforce him, also has something like 8,000 Ligurians and Gauls in it, so recruiting never wholly ceased.

In terms of how these Gauls would fight, we’ve actually discussed the La Tène military kit before. Common Gallic warriors generally fought unarmored (although only quite rarely nude) or perhaps with only textile armor of some kind, simply because these were fairly poor societies. Instead, they protected themselves with a large oval shield (a relative of the Roman scutum), using spears as their primary weapon and long one-handed straight-edged slashing swords as their backup weapon. Gallic infantry sometimes carried javelins, but very much functioned as ‘line infantry,’ expecting to engage in close combat in large formations with closed ranks. Rather than the sort of ‘barbarian mob’ of popular imagination, we probably want to imagine Gallic battle lines as similar to other shield walls, like the hoplite phalanx. Evidently, the onset of their charge was fearsome, but the lack of armor meant that they often lacked the ‘staying power’ of more heavily armored Roman, Greek or African forces. Aristocratic Gallic cavalry would, by this point, often have been mailed and made effective shock cavalry.

We’ll look in more detail at some tactics next week, but the role of Gauls in Carthage’s armies in the Second Punic War was an unenviable one: Carthaginian commanders seem to consistently treat their Gallic troops as expendable and deploy their armies to concentrate losses among them. We’re told that nearly all of Hannibal’s losses at Trasimene were from his Gallic troops (Polyb. 3.74.10). At Cannae, Hannibal throws both his Iberians and Gauls forward, but once again more than half of his losses were of his Gallic troops – 4,000 Gauls, 1,500 of Iberians and Africans combined and 200 cavalry – suggesting his Iberians were somewhat more sheltered by his deployment and that his very exposed center must have been mostly Gauls (Polyb. 3.117.6). At the Metaurus, Hasdrubal seems not to trust his Gallic and Ligurian troops, placing them on a hill on the wing with orders merely to endure while he tried to win the battle elsewhere (Livy 27.48). And at Zama, Hannibal again throws his Gallic and Ligurian troops forward to endure the brunt of the initial Roman attack, before it could reach the troops (Africans, Carthaginians, his veterans) he actually cared about (Polyb. 15.11; Livy 30.33).
I should note that Luc Baray has pushed back a bit on this point, 2 arguing that the lightness of Hannibal’s African and Iberian troops demanded placing the Gauls to take the brunt of Roman attacks, but that simply doesn’t work: the Iberians were no lighter than the Gauls and the Africans much heavier. And the source tradition is – as Baray admits – just really quite clear. There is, in fact, something of a striking comment here on Carthage’s relationship with its allies and subjects as compared to Rome: whereas Roman armies place Roman citizens in the center where they share in the heaviest fighting (and the socii on the wings), Carthaginian armies seem – our evidence is limited, of course – but seem to have an established practice of intentionally shield citizen and African troops from the heaviest fighting by expending vassal, mercenary and allied troops.
However, as noted above, the role of Hannibal’s Gallic allies really crests in importance at the Battle of Cannae and then declines somewhat as he moves south. For their part, the Romans remain militarily active in Cisalpine Gaul, fighting the Gallic civitates there directly, though a full effort at reconquest will have to wait until after Hannibal has been defeated at Zama. But Hannibal, in moving south is aiming at other potential sources of manpower.
Finally, we have the available military manpower of southern Italy and Sicily: Greeks and (southern) Italians. The Greek colonization beginning in the 8th century created a bunch of Greek colonies along the coast of southern Italy and Sicily, with those communities in some case remaining very ethnically distinct (e.g. Tarentum, Syracuse, etc.) and in other cases ending up meaningfully blended with the locals (e.g. Campania). Meanwhile the uplands of southern Italy (and some of the coastal areas) remained with their earlier inhabitants, a variety of Oscan-language speaking peoples, like the Samnites or Lucanians.

This part of Italy had remained independent of Rome the longest: the Samnites had only been pulled under Roman control in the Third Samnite War (298-290), but had revolted during the Pyrrhic War (281-275) and had to be reconquered. The Pyrrhic War, of course, was also primarily a war about Tarentum, the most important of the Greek settlements still independent in southern Italy. These were thus peoples only beginning to really come solidly under Roman control during the early third century and the relative thinness of Roman control shows.
We do not hear a lot about Greek mercenaries in Carthaginian service, but it clearly happened. Very famously the Carthaginians, on the back foot against the Romans in 255 during the First Punic War, hire a Spartan commander, Xanthippos, with a small band of mercenaries, to whip their army into shape (Diod. Sic. 23.16; Polyb. 1.32). Polybius also offers a strange comment at the start of his narrative of the mercenary war when listing off the troops Carthage had, that they included, “not a few half-Greeks” (μιξέλληνες, mixellenes, very literally ‘mixed/half-Greeks’), “of whom, most were deserters or slaves” (Polyb. 1.67.7). It’s an odd comment, especially with the preemptive dismissal of them as mostly deserters or (former) slaves, which almost sounds defensive, as if Polybius is anxious to head off the notion that any proper Greek would serve in a ‘barbarian’ army (for the Carthaginians, as non-Greek speakers, were very much barbaroi in the Greek imagination).
That said, the Carthaginians had been fighting back and forth on Sicily, against Syracuse, as we’ve noted, for centuries at this point. The Sicilian Greeks were not always a united block against Carthage during that fighting either: quite often there were Greek communities under Carthaginian control or else amenable to Carthage because they feared Syracusan dominance. It makes sense: if you are a community in Sicily that isn’t Syracuse (or Carthage), your interest is that these two keep fighting, enabling you to retain some measure of independent in the context of that conflict, rather than that one of them wins and subjugates you. It would be surprising if there weren’t Greek mercenaries in Carthaginian armies.
Carthage also pulled modest numbers of mercenaries from Italy proper, particularly from Campania. Pre-Roman Campania was demographically complex: the initial population was Oscan, but the region had seen a wave of Etruscan colonial foundations (Salerno, Nola, etc.), followed (and somewhat overlapped) by a wave of Greek colonial foundations (Naples, Cumae, Paestum, etc.), followed by a reassertion of Samnite and Lucanian (that is, Oscan-speaker) power in the region in the fourth century, leading eventually to Rome moving into the region as a counterweight to the Samnites and thus the Samnite Wars (343-341, 327-304, 298-290). So it is fair to say the region is complex.
We see Campanian mercenaries in Carthaginian service in Sicily as early as 408 (Diod. Sic. 13.44.1-2) where the Campanians were there because they had originally been hired as part of Athens’ failed war with Syracuse (the Sicilian Expedition, 415-413) and had evidently stuck around. From that point forward, Campanian mercenaries show up on Sicily in modest numbers but with some regularity, with the Carthaginians installing them here and there in this or that town.3 The Carthaginians were hardly alone – the Syracusans also hired Campanians from time to time. Of course the most famous of these fellows are the Mamertines, a group of Oscan-speaking Campanian mercenaries hired by Syracuse who end up setting up shop in Messina and accidentally sparking the First Punic War. Though Polybius does mention Italians as a group during the Mercenary War (241-237), we do get one Campanian mercenary named Spendius (yes, really), an escaped slave, who evidently escaped to Carthaginian service (Polyb. 1.69.4) and it certainly seems plausible to suppose he wasn’t the only one.
The wars of the early third century – particularly the Third Samnite War (298-290), the Pyrrhic Wars (281-275) and the First Punic War (264-241) – seem to have largely cut Carthage off from these mercenary sources, however. Rome’s military system in Italy never threw off substantial numbers of mercenaries (the rare military adventurer, but not much more) and so as it expanded to encompass the Campanians, their presence seems to drop off, with the Mamertines as a sort of ‘last gasp’ of that pattern of mercenary service. Then, of course, Roman victory in the First Punic War banished Carthaginian influence from Sicily, removing their access to Greek recruitment.
Nevertheless, of course, there is a brief resurgence of Italian service in Carthage’s armies during the Second Punic War. Hannibal’s strategy, after all, was to foster large-scale revolt among the Roman socii. Hannibal’s initial campaigning to try to produce this effect among the socii north of Rome didn’t bear fruit, but after Cannae he presses into southern Italy and is able to spark a large-scale revolt, bringing over the Samnites, Lucanians, parts of Campania (most importantly Capua) and Tarentum. Suddenly Carthage had access to southern Italian manpower again.

Or rather it might have. In practice, Hannibal isn’t able to get a whole lot of military potential out of these fellows. The first problem he faces is that no region goes over completely to him: every region splits. Michael Fronda discusses this in depth in Between Rome and Carthage (2010) which is very much due for a fireside recommendation (it has a reasonably priced paperback). The thing is, the Roman conquest of these regions had ‘frozen’ ongoing local rivalries, but they had hardly passed out of memory. So when Capua goes over to Hannibal, for instance, suddenly all of the other Campanian communities have to think hard about their choices, because if Hannibal wins and Roman influence is removed, they’re suddenly very exposed to Capuan influence (backed by Carthage). That process repeats in Apulia (fear Tarentum!) and Samnium (where the Samnites split on the question) and Bruttium (where Rhegium holds to Rome) and so on.
That in turn creates a sticky operational problem because now each revolting community has other loyal communities nearby and the threat that Roman armies – which are now avoiding engaging Hannibal directly – might attack where he is not. And Hannibal cannot be everywhere. The consequence is that the Italians who side with Hannibal mostly raise forces for their own defense and are broadly unwilling to detach large forces for any collective effort. Hannibal is thus never able to get a lot of manpower out of these fellows – not enough to challenge Rome on multiple fronts effectively (efforts to do so mostly involve his smaller armies getting picked off). In that 215 ‘peak’ figure, revolting Italian socii only supply some 17,000 troops in the field.
One honestly wonders if Hannibal might not have been better off staying focused on Cisalpine Gaul, but of course his real problem here is a lack of operational mobility once the Romans shift to a strategy of containment: he cannot get back to Cisalpine Gaul, because the Romans have by that point hopelessly complicated his logistics.4 Hannibal thus may not have made a conscious choice to focus on southern Italy over Cisalpine Gaul, but simply found himself, after Cannae, ‘stuck’ on a strategy focused on the south.
In any case, the upshot of all of this is that Greeks and Campanians (especially Campanians) show up frequently in Carthaginian armies, but generally in limited numbers. They’re clearly less prominent than Carthage’s more common sources of external troops (Gaul, Iberia), though it is possible they had outsized importance because they would have been substantially heavier troops. The Mamertines were in Messina long enough to mint coins and some of these issues (e.g. BMC 26, 27, 29 etc. ) have on their reverse a warrior with an aspis and a long spear, heroically nude (not because Campanians fought nude, but because they’re evoking the heroic nudity common in Greek art).

We now have, for the most part, our cast of characters who – in varying arrangements – regularly make up Carthaginian armies (we’ll start next time by cleaning up some odds and ends as well). Next time we’re going to close out by looking at how we see Carthaginian generals using these different forces in battle, focused mostly on the Second Punic War, which is where we get to see the Carthaginian military system most clearly.
But first, I want to point something out, though I am hardly the first to notice it:5 there is something of a consistency to the Barcid approach post-237, which may or may not represent something like an intentional strategy.
Prior to 241 and the Carthaginian loss of Sicily at the end of the First Punic War, the major sources of Carthaginian mercenary manpower outside of Africa, in rough order of importance were Iberia, followed by Gaul, followed by Campania. And what is striking is that over two generations (Hamilcar, followed by his sons (and one son-in-law)), the Barcids seem to systematically move down the list, securing more direct Carthaginian control over those recruiting grounds. First, Hamilcar moves on Spain, securing relatively direct ‘overlordship’ (if not full control) as a ‘warlord of warlords’ over the Iberian recruiting ground, enabling Carthage to extract far more manpower than it ever had before.
Then, when time comes to fight Rome, Hannibal attacks through Gaul, quite clearly aiming to drop out into Cisalpine Gaul where he hoped to find ready allies (and did). Now of course we might regard Hannibal’s rout as forced by the relative lack of a Carthaginian navy, but as we’re going to discuss at some point, Carthage did have a navy in the Second Punic War and certainly could have attempted to make another effort at taking Sicily. Indeed, that was what the Romans expected. Hannibal’s decision to prepare for a land war was thus a decision, an intentional choice made and it is striking that once he made that decision, he went straight for Carthage’s next most important mercenary recruiting zone. Once again, it seems certain that doing so enabled Hannibal to get a lot more military resources out of this region. It is hard to get a clear sense of how many Gallic mercenaries Carthage might regularly pull in, but the number is clearly well south of the well over 20,000 who move through Hannibal’s army between 218 and 215.
Finally, of course, once he secured the alliance of nearly all of the Cisalpine Gauls, his next stop is Southern Italy. One wonders if he was thinking particularly of those Oscan-speaking Campanian mercenaries that Carthage had utilized in the past (though it is worth noting he tries to pry away the Etruscans – not traditional friends of Carthage – first). Once again, the strategy, in a sense, bears fruit: we don’t often get secure numbers for the Campanian mercenaries involved on Sicily, but they seem to be a sort of ‘high hundreds’ kind of force (e.g. 800 at Diod. Sic. 13.44.1-2). By contrast, in 215 Hannibal has detached an army under Hanno of some 17,000 infantry, almost entirely Bruttians and Lucanians. Hannibal is thus drawing more than a full order of magnitude more military power from the region.
The result was a vastly expanded Carthaginian military machine, albeit composed of really diverse parts. And I think it is worth stressing that the resulting mobilization was, by ancient standards, very successful. Indeed, in the ancient Mediterranean, this is probably the second most successful mobilization effort.6 The problem, of course, is that it is pitted directly against the largest mobilization effort in the pre-modern Mediterranean.
In practice, the weakness this system had were two. The first, which we’ll revisit in the next part, was that while the force it raised – again, nearly 165,000 men under arms at once – was very large, it was also comparatively light, composed of a lot of ‘mediums’ and ‘lights’ compared to much heavier Roman armies. Had it been fighting something like a Hellenistic army (which also employed lots of ‘mediums’) this might not have been a problem, but again: Hannibal was fighting Romans.
But the other weakness was far more profound: this system was fragile, while the Roman system was durable. Part of that was simply age – the Roman system was many decades old in much of Italy, so there had been time to consolidate the system and to accustom its members to collective action under Roman direction. But equally, part of it was structure: the Roman system relied much more heavily on incentives than on direct coercion. We may note the contrast: Rome had no equivalent to the Barcids’ stockpile of hostages held in New Carthage, for instance. Consequently, when pressured the Roman alliance system mostly holds together, while the Carthaginian system of vassalage comes apart in both Spain and Numidia.
Alas for the Barcids, that was probably not a problem they could fix in the time frame they had to work with.
Links for you. Science:
How AI Breakthrough Could Shake the Scientific Publishing Process
A New Creature With 24 Eyes Can See In Every Direction At Once
Changes in species composition of sessile communities on subtidal rock walls in the southern Gulf of Maine during four decades of warming
Nancy Cox, a CDC veteran and a stalwart in global flu research, dies at 77
Theoretical Basis of the Test-Negative Study Design for Assessment of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness
A titan of vaccine development sees his field’s achievements slip away
Trump ousts National Science Board members
Other:
The Most Articulate Apologist
How Netanyahu Hurt America’s Jews. The Israeli prime minister’s focus is, as always, on himself and his near-term political needs. The plight of American Jews is simply not his concern.
The AI Compute Crunch Is Here (and It’s Affecting the Entire Economy)
A quick analysis of last night’s shooting. So far, it appears the system worked as intended.
Yes The Onion
Observing Me Observing You
A.I.’s X-Ray Vision: Years ago, the field of radiology was predicted to be among the first to be decimated by A.I. job extinction. And yet today, radiologists are more in demand than ever, and the field’s job-extinction moment is seen as a false alarm.
Lessons in Training, Strategy, and Discipline From the Civil Rights Movement
Five Uncomfortable Truths About the Latest Alleged Assassination Attempt on Trump. Political violence in America should be condemned. So should be its principle promoter.
FAFO and Other Things We Learned in the 2025-26 Redistricting Wars
U.S. Mint Buys Drug Cartel Gold and Sells It as ‘American’
No evidence shooting was staged
‘MAHA Moms’
John Roberts embodies MAGA cowardice
Trump Wants to Double Production of New Nuclear Weapon Cores
Trump’s Cabinet firings reveal a teetering administration
New Gas-Powered Data Centers Could Emit More Greenhouse Gases Than Entire Nations
Trump has a new avenger in chief
Forbes Prediction Market Gamifies Story About Mass Shooting of 8 Children
Clarence Thomas’ attack on progressivism should alarm you
Florida’s Constitution Bans The Sort Of Map-Rigging Republicans Want To Do There
The Swalwell Files: Eric Swalwell’s implosion, as sudden as it was overdue, is less a scandal than a reminder that Washington’s old boys’ club still confuses proximity to power with immunity from consequence.
Gunfire of the Vanities: Trump dinner shooting defines a violent, unserious America
Democrats are leading in polls, but voters want new blood
Polymarket gambler makes $35,000 profit by using hair dryer to tamper with temperature readings at Paris airport
Kalshi & Hollywood’s Inside Edge
STAR WARS: THE ACOLYTE Unexpectedly Climbs Back Into Disney+ Top 10 Two Years After Cancellation
A new Republican privacy bill could be ‘worse than no standard at all’
The Wall Street Iran Bounce
Bad Vibes and the Trump Betrayal
I will stick with my earlier Free Press predictions:
The fact remains that, if you talk with insiders, they will confirm that the federal government faces some big mysteries. It seems that we have data on what appear to be craft that move very fast, have no visible means of propulsion, and can accelerate in a surprising manner. Radar, infrared, and other forms of data are cited to varying degrees, plus there are eyewitness pilot reports, broadly consistent with what our instruments are telling us.
And this:
Assuming a reasonable chunk of the data are declassified, I think we will simply see more of the same kind of material we’ve seen in the past: more data on entities that appear to move very quickly and in mysterious ways, but with no real explanations. We will see, as I’ve argued before, that the government itself does not know what is going on, and has been afraid to admit that. That may be the real “conspiracy” and why the veil of secrecy has been relatively difficult to pierce.
As of yesterday, there are plenty of additional videos of what seem to be glowing orbs moving fast and in unpredictable ways. Or try this one. Here is another weird one. Or try this. And another one, near military craft. And what is this?
One thing we can conclude is that the debunkers, who have been suggesting this is all camera tricks, parallax issues, or people not understanding how videos work, are proven wrong in general, even though they are right about some particular cases. On that point we can move on, as I have been arguing for some while. Mick West is not your proper guide here.
Nonetheless we still do not know what it all means, and I do not see proof of anything in particular.
I also will stress my earlier point that we are not going to see alien bodies or alien technologies, or anything meaningful connected to Roswell. That is sheer fantasy, or sometimes locos.
340 million hits in the first twelve hours? More people will be believing in aliens in any case, I suspect. Or will it be demons?
It is fashionable in the comments sections of blogs to call this topic a waste of time, but the serious people in the military and national security — most of whom do not cite alien presence — do not see it that way.
And they will be releasing more materials. These materials are being released because some subsection of “the Deep State” wants to know what is going on. As do I.
The post The UAP report so far appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Five-year MECS2 award covers multi-orbit, multi-band commercial satellite services worldwide

Welcome to the reading list, a list of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at trapped buildings, in-home data centers, cardboard military drones, Brightline’s potential bankruptcy, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.
Housekeeping items:
In this week’s newsletter about how early inventions could have appeared, I flagged the safety pin as an invention that could have been invented much earlier, and would have been useful had someone thought of it. The major inventions list (which I sourced from Wikipedia) lists the invention date for the safety pin as 1849, but Claude thought there was no reason that the safety pin couldn’t have been invented as early as 500 BC. Turns out Claude was right, and safety pin-like devices were around 3000 years ago.
This raises my confidence in the rest of Claude’s timeline estimates.
Amazon says that repairs to its damaged Middle East cloud operations could take months. [Reuters] And Iran attacked a UAE petroleum complex. [Reuters]
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused investors to funnel more funding into clean energy stocks. [FT]
Due to the risk of damage to undersea cables going through the Strait of Hormuz, hyperscalars like Google and Microsoft are buying capacity on fiber-optic cables strung alongside Iraqi oil pipelines as a backup. [Rest of World]
How many buildings are “trapped buildings” — buildings that wouldn’t be allowed to be rebuilt because they don’t meet modern code requirements, but also can’t be torn down or substantially modified because of historic preservation laws? [X]
Using AI as an interior design tool predates the modern AI revolution — I believe AI tools were being used for “virtual staging” of real estate listings before the rise of LLMs — but it’s worth keeping an eye on its progress. Homedesign.AI lets you reimagine some interior space by uploading a picture and having the AI modify it. [HomeDesigns AI]
I had to see this news item three or four times before I realized it was serious and not someone doing a bit. A startup is working on micro-data centers that can be installed in people’s homes, taking advantage of their extra electricity capacity. “Span is a California-based startup that originally launched with “smart” electrical panels designed to help homeowners save money on their electricity bills. Now, with the help of Nvidia, it has come up with something new — small, fractional data centers, or “nodes,” called XFRA units, that can be put on the side of residential homes and small commercial businesses. The idea is to take advantage of unused electrical capacity on local grids, which the Span smart panels can pinpoint.” [CNBC]
The Wall Street Journal has a piece on Ford’s efforts to build a $30k electric truck, which despite the company’s enormous losses on EVs is still going forward. “With its new truck, Ford says it has eliminated thousands of feet of heavy copper wiring, cut out hundreds of parts and made it 15% more aerodynamic than its other pickups. The process included rethinking the assembly line, which Ford helped to pioneer. That process is traditionally iterative, slow and depends on scores of outside partners. On Ford’s new “assembly tree,” a modular system stamps out two massive, aluminum castings and a battery that get merged at the end of the process—closer to how Tesla and China’s automakers build EVs. “We’ve never blown the whole thing up before and just started over,” Coffey said. “If and when we build this, we will rewire Ford.”” [WSJ] And another similar article in the New York Times. [NYT] Presumably some PR firm is earning their keep getting these articles placed.
There’s lots of debate about how fast the economy might grow if we truly develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that can do anything a person can do. The big divide in this debate tends to be between the economists, who think growth rates might be a few percentage points, and the technologists, who think growth rates might be vastly higher. Here’s an interesting contribution to the debate, an estimate of how fast the economy could theoretically grow based on analysis of actual industrial production rates. “In this post, I compute the maximum rate at which an autonomous AI economy could grow, once its production is concentrated in the sectors most important for self-replication. I take the conservative case for this calculation: full automation, but no other technological improvement. Using US input-output data, I find this economy could double in about a year…” One interesting item in this analysis: under this rate of growth, construction would be a much larger share of GDP than it is currently. [Defenses in Depth]
The NYT on Geely, the Chinese car manufacturer jockeying with giant BYD. “In an unexpected development, Geely beat BYD in sales in the first two months of the year and is rapidly broadening its lineup. Geely is now pushing overseas, more than doubling exports to Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere in the past year and taking on global rivals on their home turf.” [NYT]

Sherrah Hill, a mother of six, didn’t think a simple promise to her kids — that she would buy them ice cream with toppings to celebrate their good grades — could stress her out so much. But then she stood in one of the aisles of her local grocery store in South Florida, staring at a package of sprinkles priced at $8.
“Inside, I was dying because I was like, ‘How do I tell my kids that I can’t afford to get sprinkles for their ice cream?’” Hill said.
These are the realities that some mothers are facing as they grapple with the rising cost of many things in their lives, including consumer goods, food and the average price of gas.
But the tradeoffs run deeper than sweet treats. Recent survey data from No Kid Hungry, which works to end childhood hunger, shows that more than 2 in 5 mothers (43 percent) say they worry about whether they can consistently provide their children with healthy meals.
Other survey findings show 24 percent of all moms say they took on debt in the past 12 months, 23 percent say they worked extra hours or took on additional work, and 20 percent skipped a meal or ate less so their children could eat. Those figures are more pronounced for mothers who identify as lower income: 35 percent of those moms say they delayed payments, asked family and friends for help (33 percent) or accessed community support like food pantries (35 percent).
“What stood out to me the most is this idea of moms making tough sacrifices for their children’s well-being,” said Lillian Singh, senior vice president of Family Economic Mobility for Share Our Strength, which leads No Kid Hungry.
In Washington state, Ashleigh Ligon is trying to stretch her dollar. But it’s hard. She has five biological children and an adult son through marriage who has developmental disabilities and autism. She and her husband also have two sets of twins and a 7-year-old son who is allergic to several common foods, including peanuts, dairy and eggs. She can’t just buy him pre-packaged meat because most of it has seasoning on it. That means opting for fresh meats — and paying more for that.
“I have to buy him fresh chicken and fresh meat, fresh ground beef. The price of that is huge,” she said. “There’s times where my children want more and I have to feed them more rice or more starch or things that aren’t as nutritious to make sure that they’re full. I can’t necessarily give them as much meat as I would like.”
Ligon receives assistance through the federal government’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, which helps 1 in 8 low-income Americans feed themselves and their families. Last year, Republicans in Congress cut $186 billion from the program over 10 years — the largest cut in its 60-year existence. Emerging data on the impact of new work requirements shows a drop in enrollment across the country.
“It is overwhelming. I think after what happened at the end of last year, where benefits were cut off, I think it’s really built a lot of uncertainty about it,” Ligon, 42, said.
In Hastings, Nebraska, Sierra Edmisten, a single mom of four, waits for her kids to finish their meals to determine what she’ll have.
“It’s not necessarily not eating at that point, but it’s waiting to eat,” she said. “I’d much rather have the full nutritious meal going to them first, and I’ll find something else around the house to have afterwards.”
Kristin Rowe-Finkbeiner is executive director and CEO of MomsRising, a network of more than a million moms nationwide advocating for family policies. She recently testified during a “Moms Pay the Price” hearing hosted by the Democratic Women’s Caucus and the Mamas’ Caucus, calling on Congress to reverse federal funding cuts to areas including nutrition, healthcare and childcare.
Rowe-Finkbeiner noted that only 13 members of Congress have become mothers while serving in Congress and because of that, “it’s clear that they don’t understand what’s happening with their own constituents in America.” She added: “Traditionally, SNAP has had bipartisan support. But right now, we have out of touch Republican leaders who are looking at numbers and not the negative impact on people’s lives, in our economy overall.”
Edmisten used to be enrolled in safety net programs that helped offset the low wages she made caring for young children in a daycare and older people in hospice care. The 31-year-old has since transitioned to a better-paying job as a community organizer and that has allowed her to breathe a little easier.
That has started to feel precarious again. She’s rethinking meals and picking cheaper cuts of meat to cut down the grocery bill. She looks for food specials on bulk leftovers, which makes food planning for the week tricky. She finds herself calculating how her kids’ sports practices will impact how often she fills up her gas tank.
“If prices keep rising, what do I have to do next? It gets you back into that survival mindset a bit,” she said.
Hill, who is a full-time nanny, worries about what could happen if she faces an emergency expense.
“I’m paycheck to paycheck,” the 42-year-old said. “By the time I get my paycheck, I’m already negative because it’s already accounted for.”
Rowe-Finkbeiner called out the hypocrisy of the Trump administration supporting such cuts while claiming it wants more people to have babies. She mentioned reports last year of the administration considering motherhood medals.
“You can’t eat a motherhood medal. A motherhood medal doesn’t get you access to a doctor. A motherhood medal certainly doesn’t do childcare because the majority of moms have to go to work to put food on the table and a roof over their kids’ heads,” she said.
Still, the No Kid Hungry survey data shows more than 3 out of 4 moms say they remain optimistic about their children’s future.
Singh, from Share Our Strength, said her work brings her in close contact with community organizations across the country that help mothers. She has witnessed their collective power rise as they navigate a policy landscape that has cut supports or made them more unsustainable. They are more committed than ever in helping each other succeed.
“Moms oftentimes dream in threes,” she said. “They dream for themselves. They dream for their children, and they dream for their communities.”
Edmisten, who is running for city council in Hastings, said affordability is among the issues she’s talking about with potential voters. Her lived experiences are shaping those conversations.
Ligon, who is disabled, does advocacy work in her community. She said she gets joy from helping other parents learn to advocate for themselves through parent leadership workshops.
“I feel like there’s so many people walking around with fear and uncertainty — and I’m one of them — but I do a pretty good job of keeping it in and keeping myself logical and analytical. And so I think being able to be there for other parents, and being able to see other parents in like complete despair, and then have some hope” she said. “I think that makes such a big impact.”
This Mother’s Day, Ligon plans to watch her 9-year-old play basketball, then maybe have a picnic at the local park. Edmisten intends to watch her 8-year-old play flag football. Hill doesn’t have big plans, but she expects to hang out at home with her children.
“We can’t afford to do anything,” she said. “I’m going to enjoy being around them.”
“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.
The post Mothers Are Stretching Every Dollar — and Still Finding Ways to Care for their Families appeared first on DCReport.org.
I’m always interested in how work on interstellar concepts gets funded. After all, although the Nancy Grace Roman telescope is now ready to fly, with a launch some time this fall, there was a real chance the project might get canceled along the way. Trying to predict what will happen to NASA’s budget is harder now than ever. Thus I followed Marshall Eubanks and team’s work on swarm technology missions to Proxima Centauri with interest, learning in their new paper that their NIAC funding continues along with a grant from Breakthrough Starshot’s Communications Group. That last is itself interesting, as communications was, I’ve been told, the toughest nut to crack in setting up swarm strategies for tiny sailcraft – a few grams each – for Proxima Centauri b. Some of this work was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory as well.

Imagine our swarm as consisting of 1000 lightsails launched in a one-month window, boosted by the kind of laser array Breakthrough Starshot has advocated, an Earth-based installation high in the Chilean desert. The research team refers to these sailcraft as ‘coracles,’ a nod to a traditional bowl-shaped boat common to the northern British isles and Ireland. Reaching a velocity of 20 percent of lightspeed, the probes are to be assembled into a coherent swarm using drag from the Interstellar Medium (ISM). At these velocities, this flow of neutral and charged particles can shape them into coherency on the order of 100,000 kilometers transverse separation; i.e., perpendicular to the path of the swarm.
Image: Figure 3 from the paper. Caption: The beta-plane of a swarm flyby of Proxima Centauri b, with the swarm shown lying in that plane. (Note that the planned swarm dispersion is much smaller than is indicated in this artist’s impression, and that in practice the swarm will not be exactly centered on Proxima b’s position due to ephemeris errors.)
The individual probe is currently envisioned at 4 meters in diameter, and on the order of 10 mm thick (aerographene is a leading material candidate). The total probe mass is 3.6 grams, 2.6 of which is allocated to the laser sail. Instrumentation is placed directly on one side of the sail, a phase-coherent array of metamaterial flat optics. As shown below, it contains spaces for 169 smaller 200-mm annular apertures, although not all of these are necessarily used depending on the profile of the mission being flown. These optical apertures when combined produce the light collecting area for a single coracle approximating a 0.5 m telescope.
Image: This is Figure 4 from the paper. Caption: Oblique view of the top/forward of a probe (side facing away from the launch laser) depicting an array of phase coherent apertures for both imaging and for sending data back to Earth. Credit: Eubanks et al.
An earlier Centauri Dreams article Reaching Proxima b: The Beauty of the Swarm gives background particulars, but the concept is now being brought forward with a great deal more detail. Swarm concepts are useful because the high number of probes heightens the chances that some of the probes may move past both sides of the target for maximum coverage. It’s noteworthy that the authors, taking into account launch as well as voyage and encounter losses, assume only 300 of the original 1000 will be left for communications back to Earth. As we’ll see, some of the probes are to be ‘sacrificed’ as they serve the communications needs of the mission.
But let’s get back to the question of the interstellar medium. Each of the probes is to rotate 90 degrees at the end of the boost phase, the idea being to reduce erosion during the cruise phase by traveling edge-on. We have to get through the comparatively dense interplanetary zone before exiting into interstellar space – here it’s interesting that given the direction of Proxima Centauri from the ‘nose’ of the heliosphere, the movement through the heliopause should occur at roughly the same distances experienced by the Voyagers – 125.6 and 119 AU. We’re moving, of course, considerably faster, and at .20 c, exit the Solar System in less than four days. It took Voyager 2 41 years to make this passage. From the paper:
It is not possible to increase speeds with drag from the ISM wind caused by the probe’s velocity; we use ISM drag to implement a velocity on target technique, slowing down the later launched probes so that velocities come to match as probes approach each other. Once the solar system risk zone is passed this technique will be initiated by rotating swarm members into a “face-down” sail-side up configuration, increasing the drag by having the sail-side face into the ISM wind. In the face-down configuration, the main communications lasers on the instrumentation side will be facing the Earth, enabling high-bit-rate communications without exposing the instrumentation and electronics to ISM wind damage. Note that the first probe launched will not have to enter a facedown configuration, and the later launched probes will advance to join it.
So we have differential thrust between edge-on probes and face-on probes, the result being a swarm that is gradually assembled over 2.79 years. Remember that the plan is to boost the entire swarm into space in a period of no more than one month. The swarm begins to coalesce after launch because the launch velocity of each new probe is increased, allowing later-launched probes to catch up with earlier ones. The probes all return to an edge-on configuration after swarm assembly, coordinating communications through six lasers per probe.

Image: Leaving the heliosphere, we move into the interstellar medium’s gas, plasma, dust, cosmic rays, and magnetic fields. Can we use this ‘interstellar wind’ to shape the Proxima Centauri swarm? Credit: JHU/APL.
I mentioned above the attrition of the swarm along the route, which is not entirely due to encounters with material in the ISM. The authors also turn individual probes into a face-down configuration to manage data communications with Earth, creating higher drag that pulls them out of the swarm. Meanwhile, the 30 percent of the swarm thought to be remaining at the Proxima Centauri system can target Proxima Centauri b or break into sub-swarms, perhaps targeting other planets in the system. One week before the encounter, the first probes will rotate their instrument side into the forward direction of motion, relaying observations to the rest of the swarm. The entire swarm will go face-down after the encounter for relaying data to Earth. The data return phase is assumed to require no less than a year.
The communications problem vexed Breakthrough Starshot designers, so the solution posed here catches the eye. Among the options are having probes return data independently or, far better, creating a time-coherent swarm which sends communications pulses that arrive at Earth simultaneously. More challenging but perhaps the most worthy of future study is to create a sparse phased array for communication, one that allows swarm antennas to act as a single higher-gain antenna. The thin, ultra-lightweight optical elements are phase-locked to achieve a synthetic aperture of considerable size, but one that demands maintaining probe positions at the nanometer level. From the paper:
The advantage of this latter approach is that the synthesized beam pattern in the main lobe at Earth is equivalent to that of the single transmission reflector with area equal to the sum of the areas of all the probes, although this would be a sparse array and the beam shape would not be the same as the beam formed by a solid antenna with the same extent. Note that this approach would require maintaining the positions of the probe members at the few 100 nm level or better, roughly 6 orders of magnitude better than the time coherent swarm approach. We do not consider this last sparse phased array approach further in this paper due to the extreme difficulty of phase coordination across the swarm.
Image: This is Figure 2 from the paper. Caption: Artist’s impression of a Coracle approaching Proxima b (and reflecting the light of Proxima Centauri). The 12,000nm intra-swarm “Side Lasers” (see Subsection 6.3) are for intra-swarm probe-to-probe communications. Each round ring on the top (instrumentation) side of the sail visible here is the 200 mm annulus aperture of a folded optic camera (see Figure 6 and discussion) shared between imaging and communications with Earth at 432/539-nm. Conceptual artwork by Mark Garlick. (Note: Seeing other probes apparently nearby at encounter is artistic license!)
Data broker ‘agents’ can be used to filter and select data from the many terabytes collected during the flyby, managing the data return to Earth. In this way redundant data can be filtered out of the data flood, using what the authors call Observe-Evaluate-Select-Flood (OESF) loops, in which the swarm is essentially divided into nested sets of probes. This part of the concept deserves more attention than I can give it here, but it’s essentially applying an AI approach not only to managing collected data but also to analyzing imagery for further consideration. Even so, this statement pulled me up short:
Although the techniques of developing swarm coherence and agent-based data selection certainly require work, there seems to be no fundamental limitation to the return of gigabytes of data over interstellar distances with large swarms of laser-sail spacecraft.
I believe the statement is true insofar as we can come up with a solution consonant with physics to make this happen, but gigabytes of data with this particular mission concept seems too much to hope for. That’s the judgment of a layman, however, and it will be fascinating to see how these communications concepts play out in the literature as this project continues to be refined. The concepts here are ingenious, even startling, and deserve further investigation.
The prospect of instrumentation in the Proxima Centauri system is exciting indeed. Given the number of probes entering this zone, the authors believe at least one is likely to pass within a single diameter of Proxima b, which would provide spectroscopic analysis of the planet’s atmosphere as well as imaging in considerable detail. Mapping of the surface on the day side of the planet would allow us to search for the so-called ‘vegetation red edge’ and any biology there. The search for biosignatures and technosignatures could get down to the level of features like coral reefs or even night-time city lights.
High-velocity flybys pose huge imaging challenges, given the needed length of exposure time and the movement of the planet in the field of view. The result: enormous image smear. To attack the problem, the authors point to Time Delay Integration (TDI), Velocity Shift Integration (VSI) and high dynamic range imaging (HDR), three techniques explained in the paper. The close flyby of Proxima b itself will last less than a minute. Note the ramifications of this not only on data return but the necessary computational resources of the swarm:
In 0.01 s the spacecraft would move ∼600 km, which, at a distance of 10,000 km… would cause noticeable distortions of the images being stacked; these are predictable and can be removed. Iterative HDR can remove rotations of the spacecraft during the image, correct for ephemeris errors during imaging, and also correct smearing due to objects with different relative velocities in the image plane. In a 10 second flyby with 106 mega-pixel images per second per aperture a single probe with multiple aperture arrays might obtain billions of images, mostly greatly underexposed. This will form the raw material for searches for small bodies and unanticipated features in the Proxima system. It will never be possible to send all of this raw material back to Earth; extracting as much useful information as possible from it after the encounter will be a major computational task for the probes in the swarm.

Image: This is Figure 1 from the paper. Caption: Artist’s impression of the approach of a swarm towards Proxima b; at this point, a few seconds before closest approach, the swarm could be examining the planet’s nightside for techno- or bioluminescence. (This image is based on the artistic work of Dr. Mark A. Garlick.)
Orienting the probes after the system flythrough to communicate with Earth, the swarm will be able to observe the Proxima system as it recedes and observe the interactions of the star’s heliosphere with its local interstellar medium (and recall the New Horizons imagery of Pluto after that spacecraft’s encounter). Moreover, a distant encounter with Proxima A and B will occur about a year after the Proxima Centauri event, although the approach as conceived here would be on the order of 10,000 AU. Planets in the habitable zone of both stars should be observable from this distance. Much better, of course, to have a separate Centauri AB flyby mission, but for now one system at a time.
Navigation will be difficult given that we need highly accurate ephemeris information – in other words, we have to know exactly where Proxima Centauri b is, an obvious point, but it’s problematic because given current data from Gaia, the possible error in the star’s proper motion amounts to a 260,000 kilometer error over the mission’s flight time. A better determination of Proxima b’s orbit is also critical, which is why the authors consider a possible precursor mission several years before the first swarm mission to improve the ephemeris.
I won’t list all the authors of this paper but many will be familiar to Centauri Dreams readers, including Jean Schneider and Pierre Kervella (Paris Observatory), Andreas Hein (I4IS/University of Luxembourg), Robert Kennedy (I4IS), Slava Turyshev (JPL) and Philip Lubin (UC-Santa Barbara). The kind of investigation mounted by this team is how we move the ball forward in interstellar studies. Drawing on recent work including the deep investigations of the Breakthrough Starshot scientists, Eubanks and colleagues have enlarged the speculative space especially in terms of communications and swarm computational options, all making an interstellar crossing in decades rather than centuries possible. This paper should be studied by anyone seriously following our increasingly refined strategies for making such a crossing happen.
The paper is Eubanks et al., “Science from the In Situ Exploration of the Proxima Centauri System,” available as a preprint.

The Belmont Stakes closes the Triple Crown season and draws national attention from both experienced bettors and curious newcomers.
In 2026, the race, temporarily at Saratoga Race Course for its third straight year due to Belmont Park’s $455M reconstruction project, brings together elite three-year-old horses, and a fast-paced betting environment shaped by its shortened 1¼-mile distance and speed-favoring track.
For fans in the United States looking to engage with the event, preparation matters. Understanding how the race works, how odds are shaped, and how to interpret key data can improve decision-making.
This guide focuses on practical details that often get overlooked. Each section highlights what to familiarize yourself with before placing a wager so that choices are based on insight rather than impulse.
The Belmont Stakes retains its ‘Test of the Champion’ nickname despite running at Saratoga’s 1¼-mile distance (shortened from the traditional 1½ miles). This still makes it the longest Triple Crown race, fundamentally changing how horses perform and how bettors evaluate them.
Many entrants face this trip for the first time. Stamina remains critical, Saratoga’s tighter turns demand sustained effort earlier than Churchill or Pimlico’s layouts. Front-runners from shorter preps may falter without tactical positioning to conserve energy for the shorter-but-more-demanding stretch.
Saratoga’s track conditions play a key role in 2026. The venue features tighter turns and a shorter stretch than traditional Belmont Park. Horses with tactical speed and early positioning often excel here, particularly on its speed-favoring surface.
Pay attention to recent race schedules. Some horses arrive after running in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Others skip one race and come in fresher. That difference can shape performance and should be part of any betting decision.
Odds are more than numbers. They reflect public sentiment, expert opinion, and real-time betting activity. Before placing any wager, it helps to understand how these odds shift leading up to race day.
Early odds are usually set by bookmakers. As more bets come in, those odds adjust. Watching these movements provides insight into which horses are gaining attention.
When exploring betting on belmont stakes, pay attention to how odds change as raceday approaches and the field tightens. That movement can highlight which contenders are drawing the most interest ahead of race day.
Key elements to monitor include:
Taken together, these movements reveal more than a final price alone. They help show where attention is building, which horses are holding market support, and where the strongest pre-race confidence appears to be.
Horse form refers to recent performance. It includes finishing positions, speed figures, and how a horse handled different track conditions. Reviewing this information helps build a clearer picture of consistency and adaptability.
Look beyond simple finishing positions. A horse that placed third in a fast race may have performed better than a winner in a slower field. Context matters.
Pedigree remains relevant for the 2026 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. While the shortened 1¼-mile distance reduces the emphasis on pure stamina compared to the traditional 1½ miles, bloodlines with tactical stamina and sustained speed still provide valuable clues. Horses from distance-capable families tend to handle Saratoga’s demanding turns more effectively.
Consider how each horse has progressed over time. Improvement between races often signals readiness for a bigger challenge. Horses that maintain steady form without regression are often easier to evaluate.
Combining form and pedigree creates a more complete understanding of each contender.
Behind every horse is a team that shapes preparation and race execution. Trainers and jockeys play a critical role in the Belmont Stakes, and their history can offer useful insights.
Some trainers have a strong record in long-distance races. Others excel at preparing horses for peak performance at specific points in the season. Reviewing past Saratoga results can highlight consistent patterns.
Jockey experience also matters. Navigating a longer race requires patience and timing. Riders who understand Saratoga often position their horses more effectively throughout the race.
When reviewing participants, focus on:
Together, these factors can help clarify which horses are backed by experienced, well-matched connections. In a race as demanding as the Belmont, that kind of background can be an important part of the bigger picture.
Betting on the Belmont Stakes goes beyond selecting a single winner. There are multiple wager types, each with its own structure. Understanding these options helps tailor your approach to match your preferences.
Straight bets are the most common. These include win, place, and show wagers. They focus on a single horse finishing in a specific position.
Exotic bets involve combinations of horses. These require predicting multiple outcomes within the same race. They can add complexity but also allow for more strategic selections.
Common bet types include:
Each option requires different levels of analysis. Choosing the right type depends on how much detail you want to incorporate into your selections and how risk-tolerant you are.
Preparing for the Belmont Stakes in 2026 involves more than following headlines or popular picks. It requires attention to race structure, careful review of data, and awareness of how the betting landscape evolves. By focusing on key factors such as distance, odds movement, horse form, and team experience, bettors can approach the event with clarity.
Taking time to understand these elements helps create a more informed perspective. Whether reviewing statistics or observing market trends, each step contributes to a stronger overall approach.
“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.
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Imagine how much better off we would be if over the last few decades we had not made mistakes of being overly aggressive and unwisely violent toward other countries. If we had gotten in and out of Afghanistan quickly. If we had not attacked Iraq needlessly. If we had been smart about Vietnam. If we had not interfered in Iran many decades ago, and then again threatened them in 2003? Without that threat Iran would have had much less motivation to acquire nuclear weapons. Imagine the savings in military expenses. The generally more peaceful international situation. The many thousands of young Americans who would be alive, or who would be whole. Imagine that and you’ve still just scratched the surface of how big the difference would be.
First, consider ways we could have behaved smarter. George W. Bush invading Iraq was a mistake, full stop. Afghanistan is murkier. You can read about the ways we meddled in Afghanistan for many years before the 9/11 attacks. It’s murky but leaves a legitimate question whether there would have been enough anger at America to have stoked the 9/11 attack if we had not been playing games there long before. If no such attack had happened then there would never have been a need to invade Afghanistan. Or when the attack did happen we could have gotten in and out quickly and figured out getting Bin Laden later, as ended up happening anyway.
In Vietnam, if we really adhered to our own principles then we would have concluded early on that the people there just wanted to be independent, and that which form of government they wanted was their choice. In the same vein we would have allowed the people of Iran to keep their duly elected prime minister rather than our overthrowing him. We would have let them elect who they wanted as their leader rather than our artificially keeping an unpopular Shah in power. Maybe they would have chosen other leadership and maybe that would have been relatively moderate, rather than blowing up in a full-on revolution by the most radical elements (the ’78 revolution led by Khomeini). If their history had played out like that then the situation of the U.S. and Iran being enemies would never have happened. Imagine what that would be like, if the U.S. had just never pushed Iran into seeing us as an enemy. They might have felt no compulsion to have nuclear weapons. Note that over those same decades many other countries in that region have not felt compelled to develop nuclear weapons.
There have been times we have been smarter and have benefited from it. When General MacArthur wanted to be overly aggressive and invasive in Korea President Truman removed him from leading that operation. We now have a problematic state in North Korea, but the wider, and likely longer and worse, war that MacArthur wanted to pursue would have created much more damage for all. Many criticized the first President Bush for quickly leaving Iraq after having pushed them out of Kuwait. Critics wanted him to overrun Iraq, remove Saddam Hussein, and transform Iraq into a more friendly and compliant state, as if that kind of thing has ever gone quickly or well (see Afghanistan.) But Bush ended Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and then got out quickly, saving us and the region and the world from much worse results.
There are the obvious benefits we could have had: for example less military spending, and so many of our own people who would not have been lost or damaged, but there’s much more. What would we have done with that money instead? Be less in debt? Paid for day care? Reduced climate change? As for our dead and damaged, it’s not just that they would be here. For each one with long term serious damage, physically or mentally/emotionally, we have to spend tremendous amounts of money and time helping them, and even then we often fall short. So it’s a double loss. We not only spend time and money helping them, but we also don’t have them being productive people. By productive I don’t just mean producing work that makes money. I also mean their presence that would have made for better families, would have cared for their elderly, would have created situations that would have led to kids growing up better, would have been helpers in our communities.
As for the wider world, in a similar way, a more peaceful world is a more productive world, in all those same senses. Not only would we spend less on defense, many other countries could do the same. Look at what a productive nation Vietnam has become after we stopped making their entire country a war zone. Imagine a more peaceful Iran focused more on being productive. It might always have been a mixed picture in Iran, we don’t know, but it could have been better. A world of productive countries interacting with one another creates a whole different situation. Perhaps China would have stayed as a nonthreatening and fully participating member of the world community as it was in the ’90s rather than switching to feeling like it needed such aggressive posture. With fewer international conflicts there would also be fewer waves of desperate refugees, who put pressure on neighboring countries, or flood places like Europe until the locals get nervous and that creates societal divisions.
In that better picture perhaps the sense of faith in our own country would have remained stronger. More faith because of a better economy, and because of all those additional productive lives and what they would have contributed, and because of less stress on societal ties from controversial wars and all that comes with them. Perhaps there would be less frustration and less divisiveness, and all the repercussions we now have from that.
Just as war has far reaching effects, so does peace. War has ripples that go on very long after, continuing to inflict damage and waste and cost in ways that come as unforeseen surprises (countries becoming enemies, terrorist attacks, waves of refugees). Or they come in ways we don’t connect back to the source and so don’t realize the full cost. Just so, peace has ripples that reach far and continue without end. Countries that are relatively healthy and relatively peaceful allow people to just go on about their lives, creating benefits and improvements that we can’t even realize come from that peace.
Of course such a scenario might have just had different problems develop, but it certainly would have been better, probably much better. There is an enormous gap between how things would be if we had been wise at each of these steps versus where we are. All because of stupid actions. Actions like this current warring on Iran (we are not at war “with” Iran. We are committing war on Iran). It is a gap so far beyond what we are aware of, or that we can picture, that it is in the most literal sense, a challenging, difficult, fuzzily pictured, distantly viewed, hard thing to imagine.
“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.
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Just a few spots left! Lots of great speakers including Tyler, myself, Bryan Caplan, Robin Hanson, Jon Klick, Shruti Rajagopalan and more.
Please apply and encourage your students to apply.

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Dr. Vikas Shah has published a post on his site Thought Economics, devoted to my imminently forthcoming book Moral Economics. The long transcript combines a conversation we had together, interspersed with bits of the book itself, paraphrased to appear as part of the live conversation.
"Roth’s new book, Moral Economics: From Prostitution to Organ Sales, What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work (Basic Venture, 2026), is a tour through what he calls repugnant transactions — exchanges that consenting parties want to make but that others believe should be forbidden, often on moral or religious grounds. The territory ranges from sex, surrogacy and adoption to alcohol, drugs, blood plasma, vaccine challenge trials, kidney transplants and medical aid in dying. Roth’s central argument is bracing in its calm: most contested markets cannot really be abolished, only relocated — driven underground, exported across borders, or left to operate informally and dangerously. The honest question is therefore not whether to permit such markets, but how to design and regulate them so that they command sufficient social support to work, and so that the costs and benefits fall in places we can defend. Markets, in his view, are tools to help decide who gets what; the work of moral economics is to keep asking, with evidence rather than absolutes, how those tools should be built. I spoke with him about the philosophical architecture of the book, the everyday paradoxes of repugnance, the lessons of kidney exchange, the controversies around vaccine challenge trials and assisted dying, and what new frontiers of moral contention the next generation of technologies — from CRISPR to artificial intelligence — will force us to confront."
We started by investigating why Claude chose to blackmail. We believe the original source of the behavior was internet text that portrays AI as evil and interested in self-preservation.
And here is Alex Turner on the topic of self-fulfilling misalignment. I raised this possibility some while ago in a Free Press column, and mainly was met with hostility.
The social return to a positive world view, and avoiding negative emotional contagion, never has been higher.
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In December 2025, Australia became the first country to ban youth under 16 years old from holding accounts on major social media platforms, a policy now under consideration in more than a dozen countries and in numerous states. Because social media use is inherently social, the effectiveness of a ban that is easy to circumvent may depend on whether compliance reaches a tipping point: a share of compliant peers high enough to make it optimal for individuals to comply themselves. We surveyed 835 Australian teenagers four months after the ban took effect and find that only about one in four 14–15-year-olds comply. The social environment around use has barely moved: most banned teens believe that their peers are still using banned platforms and cite social reasons for continuing use. Sustaining high compliance requires two ingredients: the share of compliers must be high enough and those who comply must find it preferable to continue complying. The current ban achieves neither. Teenagers report that they require roughly two-thirds of peers to stop using social media to stop themselves, far above the share currently complying. They also perceive compliers as less popular than non-compliers, so the more influential teens disproportionately stay on the platforms. Together, these patterns suggest that compliance is more likely to diminish than to rise. Sustaining higher compliance will likely require pairing the ban with instruments that act on social norms and individual incentives directly.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
A few days ago I was talking with a very smart fifteen year old in Australia (really). He was of the opinion that it was quite ineffective, though he noted he could no longer access LinkedIn. I would note there are more stringent measures, requiring more governmental monitoring and control of the internet, that perhaps could have a greater effect.
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A mission to prevent a $500 million NASA space observatory from meeting a fiery demise just passed a notable prelaunch testing milestone. The Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, a spacecraft launched in 2004, is at risk of falling back through the atmosphere and burning up without intervention.
On Friday, NASA announced that the Link spacecraft, manufactured by Katalyst Space Technologies to intervene before Swift’s fate is sealed, completed its slate of environmental testing at the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Testing in the Space Environment Simulator concluded on Monday, May 4, and the spacecraft returned to Katalyst’s facilities in Broomfield, Colorado, for additional, prelaunch testing.
“The Swift boost attempt is a fast, high-risk, high-reward mission,” said John Van Eepoel, Swift’s mission director at NASA Goddard, in a NASA press release. “Swift will likely re-enter the atmosphere sometime later this year if we don’t attempt to lift it to a higher altitude. Katalyst has gotten to this point in just eight months, and we’re glad they were able to use NASA’s facilities to test Link and draw on our expertise to help tackle questions that popped up along the way.”
Swift doesn’t have it’s own onboard propulsion system and would naturally decay in orbit over time. However, increased solar activity in recent years accelerated the lowering timeline for the observatory, dropping it from about 600 km to 400 km, with anticipated reentry in late 2026 without intervention.
That’s why in September 2025, NASA awarded Katalyst a $30 million contract to develop a spacecraft capable of docking with Swift and boosting its orbit.

“Given how quickly Swift’s orbit is decaying, we are in a race against the clock, but by leveraging commercial technologies that are already in development, we are meeting this challenge head-on,” said Shawn Domagal-Goldman, acting director, Astrophysics Division, NASA Headquarters, at the time.
“This is a forward-leaning, risk-tolerant approach for NASA. But attempting an orbit boost is both more affordable than replacing Swift’s capabilities with a new mission, and beneficial to the nation — expanding the use of satellite servicing to a new and broader class of spacecraft.”
“We’re in an unusual situation where the schedule dictates how much risk we’re willing to accept, rather than the other way around,” said Kieran Wilson, Link’s principal investigator at Katalyst. “The clock is ticking on Swift’s descent, so we have to find a balance between testing and problem solving that gives the mission the best chance of success.”
Swift is in an orbit inclined 20.6 degrees from the equator, which is why Katalyst selected Northrop Grumman’s Pegasus XL air-launched rocket in November to fly the mission.
“The versatility offered by Pegasus’ unique air-launch capability provides customers with a space launch solution that can be rapidly deployed anywhere on Earth to reach any orbit,” said Kurt Eberly, Director of Space Launch for Northrop Grumman. “The stringent mission requirements necessary to save the Swift observatory, including the unique low-inclination orbit and the tight mission timeline, all pointed to Pegasus being the perfect choice.”
The mission is set to launch in June. Link will first integrate with the Pegasus rocket at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia early in the month and then the company’s L-1011 aircraft will deploy the spacecraft from the Marshall Islands later in the month.

My thanks for WorkOS for, once again, sponsoring Daring Fireball for the last week. If you’re ready to sell to enterprise customers, your product may be ready — but is your auth infrastructure?
If you’re building B2B SaaS, especially AI, you quickly need enterprise features like SSO, SCIM, and audit logs. Your developers shouldn’t waste cycles rebuilding that infrastructure. Free them to focus on what sets you apart. WorkOS gives you production-ready APIs for auth and access control that integrate directly into your product. Trusted by over 2,000 companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.