Starshot Is a Success (Part II)

The second part of Jim Benford’s examination of Breakthrough Starshot concludes our look at the numerous issues advanced by Phase I of the project. Largely discounted in recent press coverage, the Starshot effort in fact completed a successful Phase I and left behind numerous papers that illuminate the path forward for interstellar flight. This is solid work on everything from laser arrays to metamaterials and the engineering of data return at light-year distances. Read on.

by James Benford

“I have learned to use the word ‘impossible’ with great caution.”
— Wernher Von Braun, after the lunar landing

In this second report, I will describe the major results of Starshot beginning with the mission scenario and then treating each major technical area in terms of how solutions have been resolved and issues retired. In Part 1, I described Phase 1 objectives.

One of the causes of Starshot results not being well-known publicly is that the Breakthrough Foundation has not publicized its events and results during most of its duration. After its completion, substantial reports have appeared, but are not commonly available to the public. There is a final report, but it has yet to be published. There are briefings by Harry Atwater at Breakthrough Discuss and the IRG in Montreal in 2023 [1,2].

The most detailed discussions are in the book Laser Propulsion in Space edited by Claude Phipps, with a system overview by Pete Worden and others, a description of his system model by Kevin Parkin and other aspects of directed energy in space by Philip Lubin, all in the one volume [3]. The Kevin Parkin article is particularly interesting because it contains fully worked-out examples of the possibility of future voyages of humans traveling to the stars in large >100 m sailcraft in future centuries. Note that there are many journal publications produced by Breakthrough Starshot. And there are many papers that have been published since Starshot was put on hold.

The Starshot Mission Scenario has evolved as a substantial improvement over previous beam-driven sail mission concepts. A mothership is launched which houses a fleet of membrane-like sailcraft measuring ~5 meters in diameter and less than a micron thick. The traditional standard laser guide star adaptive optic system can’t be scaled to Starshot-sized apertures to deal with the time–dependent fluctuations due to atmospheric turbulence. The system uses a satellite–based laser which is called the Beacon. It’s in an orbit at the launch time of apogee 200,000 km.

Image: Starshot system geometry. Arrows indicate that the array acquires atmospheric turbulence data from a Beacon and points the beam at the sailcraft. (Courtesy of Breakthrough Foundation.)

The sailcraft are composed of super-reflective metamaterials that stabilize the perturbations that could prevent beam-riding during the propulsion phase. The scientific instruments that are the payload are integrated into the sail. The mission begins as the mothership deploys a sailcraft into space.

Meanwhile on Earth, a phased array of 100 million small lasers turns on, generates ~100 GW of optical power and, using information from a Beacon in high orbit, digitally adjusts the phase of the emitted light to correct for atmospheric turbulence. These small lasers would be manufactured in printed sheets, following the fabrication techniques of the semiconductor industry. This is the means of lowering laser prices.

The single 100 GW beam focuses on the sail and accelerates the sail. Almost no energy is absorbed by the sail’s reflective surface, so imparting force. The sail rides the beam for ten minutes and reaches relativistic speed. It leaves the solar system in less than a week. Soon after acceleration it encounters dust and charged particles, so can be oriented edge-on to avoid such collisions. On arriving at the Alpha Centauri system, it captures images, detects dust and particles and measures fields. The sail transmits data home to an array of optical receivers on Earth, so it begins to arrive four years later. Data return may take decades because of limited data rate. Recall that complete data return from the New Horizons flyby took about a year.

The above figure shows a concept for the sail, about 5 m in diameter. Some studies show that at the velocity under consideration the gas and dust will pass through the thin sail with virtually no damage if it travels face-on. Only the payload would need protection. The sail can also be oriented edge-on in order to avoid such collisions, giving meters of material protection to the center. The payload is around the center, protected from damage due to incoming gas and dust.

Key issues for beam-driven sail systems have been retired by high levels of Starshot research. Most are resolved at the conceptual level. Experiments are needed to verify solutions for these major issues, discussed below.

Can phase be maintained across a large aperture composed of many sources? This is well demonstrated historically for microwaves, principally for radar. For lasers, a new concept has been quantified [4, 5]. Building the hundred million laser emitters into a large array is the driving technical challenge of the project. The principle of the design is to interferometrically link multiple arrays which are phase-locked into modular tiers of larger size. That is, multiple areas which are individually phase controlled would be linked together by interferometry. This approach of linking multiple optical phased arrays is called a hierarchical array. The array design that resulted has laser dimensions and total power levels that are about five orders of magnitude beyond present state of the art capabilities. To control the phase over such a large aperture is the most significant technical challenge to Starshot.

Can a sail material be found which can meet the many constraints on sail acceleration? Most materials effort has been for laser propulsion, where the leading candidate for sail material is silicon nitride. There are no fundamental limits to optimize that material for the key parameters of mass, reflectivity, refractive index, and thermal properties. (For microwaves various types of carbon are preferred, such as microtruss and graphene.)

Can the sail ride on the beam stably? (Feedback is impossible over long ranges.) If not, sails can veer off-course on millisecond timescale. The notion of beam-riding, stable flight of a sail propelled by a beam, places considerable emphasis on the sail shape. Even for a steady beam, the sail can wander off if its shape becomes deformed or if it does not have enough spin to keep its angular momentum aligned with the beam direction in the face of perturbations. Beam pressure will keep a concave shape sail in tension, and it will resist sidewise motion if the beam moves off-center, as a sidewise restoring force restores it to its position. Early stability experiments verified that beam-riding does occur with a conical sail [6].

Experiments and simulations show that conical sails ride a microwave beam stably. The carbon–carbon sail diameter is 5 cm, height 2 cm, and mass 0.056 g.

Beam riding and structural stability is difficult. (a), beam-riding stability, where bold upward arrows depict accelerating beam, light upward arrows the force of radiation pressure, downward arrows the direction of reflected light (b) structural stability methods (c) mechanical issues [7].

Meter-scale shaped sails of submicron, ~100 atomic layer thickness can ride with stability along the axis of the accelerating beam despite the many types of deformations caused by photon pressure and thermal expansion. There is also a requirement for structural stability, the ability to survive acceleration without collapse, and crumpling under acceleration, as depicted in the figure above. And there could be thermal and tensile failure as well as rupture of sail materials. Many studies of this issue have shown multiple solutions.

Stable designs exist for concave shapes and for flat flexible sails with millimeter scale photonic structures to control reflections. (Simple flat sails cannot achieve beam-riding stability because specular reflection produces forces only normal (perpendicular) to the surface.) A considerable advantage of flat sails is that curved sail shapes are more difficult to fabricate at meter scales. However, Starshot has shown that even flat sails can beam-ride by tailoring asymmetric optical properties to produce transverse restoring forces with millimeter-scale photonic structures to control reflections. So a flat sailcraft can be modified to scatter light as if it were curved. For example, the Swartzlander group, in a series of theoretical, computational, and experimental studies, has shown that a flat sail whose reflecting surface is equipped with diffractive gratings is directionally stable [8,9]. Anisotropic scattering of incident light into the grating diffraction orders manifests in optical restoring forces transverse to the membrane, redirecting incident photon momentum to produce beam-riding.

Such metagratings or metasurfaces consist of subwavelength scatterers shaped as disks, blocks, spheres, etc. shape the scattered wavefronts, redirecting incident photon momentum transversely. This provides stabilizing restoring forces and torques. However, adding metagratings makes the sail heavier than the ~0.1 gram per square meter goal. And photonic grating patterns would have to be produced over a large area. The advantage of flat sails will significantly streamline and simplify the fabrication process. The issue is whether such structures can be scaled to manufacture on the size of meters with low mass.

Spin-stabilization will likely be needed to prevent the collapse of sails while acceleration is underway. A beam can carry angular momentum and communicate it to a sail to help control it in flight. Spin can be modified remotely by circularly polarized beams from the ground [10]. It also allows ‘hands-off’ unfurling deployment through control of the sail spin at a distance [10-12]. Spinning them at ~100 Hz rates gyroscopically stabilizes sails against drift, yaw and tilting, allowing numerous shapes to retain their stability. (Circularly polarized electromagnetic fields carry both linear and angular momentum, which acts to produce a torque through an effective moment arm of a wavelength, so longer wavelengths are more efficient in producing spin.)

A final and crucial issue: Can the data be returned from distant space targets at sufficient data rates before the sail moves far beyond the star? For solar system-scale missions this is possible with existing microwave communication technologies. that were realized 50 years ago in the Deep Space Network. For interstellar missions it is possible by using laser communications. Though today’s laser communication systems are far too heavy for Starshot, which instead aims to operate part of its sail as an optical phased array. There are methods of making this likely in future decades [13]. That is because we understand essentially completely the fundamental limits on communication, and our technology today is able to operate very close to those limits.

The mission objective is to return 100 kB of data. The power requirement on board is driven primarily by the communication needs as well as pointing, tracking and computation. The energy technology is a thin film, radioisotope thermoelectric generator.

Propulsion-oriented scientists usually assume that the mission should be done at maximum speed. But information scientists’ relation to speed is different; they focus on how it affects the data return:

* Slower is better since observations are easier and there is more time in the vicinity of the target star.

* The measure of mission performance is the volume of data returned reliably vs the ‘data latency’ (defined as time from acquisition at Centauri to return to Earth of an entire observational data set).

So from this perspective speed is a secondary parameter except as it influences the data volume and data latency, which will relate to the payload mass, and in particular the communications mass.

Messerschmitt, Lubin and Morrison have studied the minimum data latency that can be achieved for a given data volume, or equivalently the maximum data volume that can be achieved for a given data latency [13, 14]. Generally, they reduce speed for high latency (with the benefit of larger data volume, so larger mass, more instrumentation, and larger data volume).

From this, the key insight that governs the difficult problem of returning data over interstellar distance is that a cost-optimized (meaning cost minimized) system scales as the relation between speed v and mass m: v~1/m1/4. That means we can have a much heavier communication system onboard. Achieving the data return is more credible. This leads to an optimum mass that maximizes data volume for a given data latency. Future communications research will deal with several probes downlinking concurrently from the same target star. Separating these downlinks (‘multiplexing’, using different formats, polarization, etc.) is very challenging,

That leads to a very significant development conclusion: We would of course develop heavier, lower velocity probes early on as the Beamer is being built out. The Beamer will be built by adding modules of power and aperture over time. It is likely what will happen is that technologies advance, such as sail materials are improved and mass is reduced. As faster solar system deep space missions occur, mass will either drop as the system performance improves or will increase for faster, better data return. That’s the natural development path, leading to faster, better missions.

The on-board pointing system of the sail is also a technical challenge. It must point in the direction of our Solar System, and the beam will be larger than Earth’s orbital diameter, 2 AU. That means a pointing accuracy of a milliarcsecond, about 10 microradians.

Phase I confirmed that short wavelength optical communications can provide the required down-link capability with limited data rate. Low-cost receiver aperture concepts were developed.

System Cost

Before I joined Starshot, I developed an analysis for cost optimization of beam-driven sail systems. In it, the trade-off was between the cost of the sources powering the array versus the cost of the array itself. That was in agreement with the cost of transmitter systems that had been built for interplanetary communications. My conclusion was that the minimum capital cost is achieved when the cost is equally divided between the array antenna and the radiated power [15].

However, Starshot requires more power than can be directly supplied by the normal electrical grid. Therefore, energy storage for the system has to be included, and becomes a substantial cost element [16, 17]. That results in a considerable change in the laser aperture, laser power, and energy storage cost. The result is that the laser cost, which is ~80% of the array cost, becomes the dominant element in the total project cost. The cost trends shown below demonstrate that cost is viable for future fiber amplifiers at ~$0.10/W, and future semiconductor lasers at ~$0.01/W.

The figure below shows that current laser fiber amplifiers and semiconductor laser costs are far too high to afford a Starshot system today. The hope is that economies of scale in the application of lasers to aspects of modern life, for example self-driving cars, will drive down the cost of lasers by economies of scale. In order to reach an affordable level for Starshot, the prices have to fall to order of cents per watt, not many dollars per watt we have today. The points at 2040 and 2050 shows what will have to occur if the cost of Starshot is to be of order 10 billion dollars. That requirement is two to three orders of magnitude cost reduction.

Image: Cost trends for fiber amplifiers and semiconductor lasers.

The Future of Beam-driven Sails

Phase II technical demonstrations, such as laboratory beam-riding sail flights and including orbital sail deployment and sail acceleration, would lead to a firm experimental basis for pilot production of the key sub-systems, leading to the beginning of array construction. That would later lead to precursor missions.

While the Beamer is under construction, many missions become possible that are at speeds lower than interstellar, as well as other applications. The laser driver can beam power to locations in space, such as Earth satellites and space stations. It can deorbit orbital debris. It can drive fast sail missions to the Moon, Mars and the outer planets. At Mars, it could have a second laser array to decelerate the spacecraft, or a retro reflector system, such as proposed by Forward, could reflect a beam from Earth to slow the sailcraft at Mars. And it can beam power to high-performance ion engines.

Development of fast sailcraft that can travel beyond our solar system will enable us to understand the interstellar medium and then, in the fast encounter with other star systems, acquire imaging, spectroscopy, and in situ particle and field measurements.

Beam-driven sails are the only way that probes can be sent to the stars in this century. Completion of Phase II would bring much-increased credibility to the concept by demonstrating beam-riding and operation of a Beamer module in the laboratory. Then the dream of beam-driven interstellar travel could be realized.

Kevin Parkin has even envisioned human beam-driven fast travel to the stars. Accelerating at Earth gravity to relativistic speeds, allowing us to contemplate human travel in future. He points out that human civilizations’ energy production doubled every 40 years since 1800, so that the energies needed for the simplest such missions will be attainable by the end of the century.

Acknowledgements: Figures are by permission of Breakthrough Starshot and Michael Kelzenberg. I also want to thank Kevin Parkin, Dave Messerschmitt and Al Jackson for technical discussions about Starshot.

References

1) Atwater, H. Starshot: from science to spacecraft to missions, Harry Atwater, Interstellar Research Group , Montreal 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jV2sNOYzaFA

2) See also same title, Breakthrough Discuss, Harry Atwater, 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrLcllx0LpQ

3. Laser Propulsion in Space: Fundamentals, Technology, and Future Missions, Claude Phipps, ed., Elsevier., Cambridge, MA ,2024.

4. Worden S., Green, W. Schalkwyk, J., Parkin K., and Fugate R., “Progress on the Starshot Laser Propulsion System,” Applied Optics, doi: 10.1364/AO.435858, 2021.

5. Bandutunga C., Sibley P., Ireland M. J., and Ward, R., “Photonic solution to phase sensing and control for light-based interstellar propulsion”, J. Opt. Soc. of Am. B, 38, 1477-1486, 2021.

6. Benford, G., Goronostavea, O., and Benford, J., “Experimental tests of beam-riding sail dynamics” in Beamed Energy Propulsion, AIP Conference Proceedings 664, Pakhomov, A., Ed. 325, 2003.

7. Gao, R., Kelzenberg M. D., and Atwater H. A., “Dynamically Stable Radiation Pressure Propulsion of Flexible Lightsails for Interstellar Exploration”, Nature Comun, 15, 4203. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47476-1, 2024,

8. Srivastava P., Chu Y., and Swartzlander G., “Stable diffractive beam rider,” Opt. Lett. 44, 3082-3085, 2019.

9. Chu Y., Tabiryan N. and Swartzlander G., Experimental Verification of a Bigrating Beam Rider. Phys Rev Lett. (123(24), 2024.

10. Benford, G., Goronostavea, O., and Benford, J., “Spin of microwave propelled sails,” in Beamed Energy Propulsion, AIP Conference Proceedings 664, Pakhomov, A., Ed., 313, 2003.

11. Benford, J. and Benford, G., “Elastic, electrostatic and spin deployment of ultralight sails”, JBIS 59 76, 2006.

12. Martin, P. et al., “Detection of a Spinning Object Using Light’s Orbital Angular Momentum” Science 341 537, 2013.

13. Messerschmitt D., Lubin P. and Morrison I., “Challenges in Scientific Data Communication from Low-mass Interstellar Probes”, ApJS 249,36, 2020.

14. Messerschmitt D., Lubin P. and Morrison I., “Interstellar flyby scientific data downlink design,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.13550, 2023.

15. Benford, J., “Starship Sails Propelled by Cost-Optimized Directed Energy”, JBIS 66, 85, 2013)

16 Parkin, K., “The Breakthrough Starshot Systems Model”, Acta Astronautica 152, 370–384, 2018.

17. Parkin, K., “Starshot System Model” in Laser Propulsion in Space: Fundamentals, Technology, and Future Missions, Claude Phipps, ed., Elsevier., Cambridge, MA ,2024.

Tuesday assorted links

1. Metropolitan Opera is trying to raise money (NYT).

2. How to write a LOTR bestseller (short video, with profanity).

3. Good WSJ review of the new Macca movie.

4. Why Lula is struggling.

5. A good analysis of CWT.

6. Wartime and feminization.

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The Data-Driven Advantage of Researching Repossessed Inventory

Repossessed cars for sale attract serious buyers for one reason: these vehicles are usually in good condition. They weren’t wrecked. They weren’t flooded. They ended up at auction because a loan went unpaid, not because the car failed.

But “good shape” still needs to be verified. Maintenance gaps, undisclosed mileage irregularities, and clean-looking titles that hide a complicated history are all real risks in this segment. Researching before you bid is the difference between a smart purchase and a costly one.

In this post, we’ll break down a data-first approach to evaluating repo cars for sale — what to check, where to find the information, and how to use it to set a bid you won’t regret.

Understanding the Origin of Repossessed Assets

The term “repossession” often carries a stigma, but in the context of professional vehicle auctions, it simply refers to a change in ownership triggered by a financial default. These vehicles are often sourced from major lenders, credit unions, and captive finance companies. Because these institutions are in the business of lending rather than car sales, they utilize auction platforms to recoup the remaining loan balances as efficiently as possible.

When searching for repossessed cars for sale, you are often looking at a cross-section of the general driving public. These are not necessarily damaged cars; in many cases, they are well-maintained daily drivers that happened to be involved in a personal financial transition. This means the inventory frequently includes late-model SUVs, fuel-efficient sedans, and work-ready trucks that are only a few years old. The primary difference between these and a retail used car is the price point and the venue of sale.

The Strategic Value of Repo Auctions

The specialized nature of the bank repo auction creates a distinct pricing environment. Unlike a traditional used-car lot, where a dealer adds a markup to cover overhead, sales commissions, and marketing, an auction focuses on the true market value determined by active bidders. This “pure” pricing model offers a level of transparency rarely found in the retail world.

For a buyer, the goal is to identify vehicles that have been overlooked or undervalued by others. This is where integrating vehicle history data becomes essential. By reviewing the title records, lien history, and previous sales data, you can build a profile of the vehicle’s life before it reached the auction block. Knowing that a vehicle had a single owner or a clean maintenance record in a specific region provides the confidence needed to bid aggressively on high-quality assets.

Mitigating Risks Through Detailed Documentation

While the financial benefits of buying repossessed inventory are clear, the process is not without its variables. Since the previous owner may have been under financial stress, it’s possible that routine maintenance, such as oil changes or brake service, was deferred in the months leading up to the repossession.

When evaluating repo cars for sale, we recommend a “data-first” approach. This involves checking for any outstanding recalls and reviewing the odometer progression. A vehicle that shows a consistent, logical increase in mileage is often a reliable daily driver. Conversely, large gaps in the history or inconsistencies in the title branding should be flagged for further investigation. By using professional history reports, you can verify that the “bank-seized” status hasn’t masked other underlying issues, such as past accidents or mechanical failures that weren’t reported to the lender.

Comparing Financial Liquidations to Insurance Losses

It is important to distinguish between vehicles sold due to financial reasons and those sold due to damage. While insurance-sourced vehicles (such as salvage or rebuilt units) are priced based on repair costs, repossessed units are priced based on market demand and the lender’s urgency. This often results in a higher “floor” price for repossessed units, but with the trade-off of a much lower repair requirement.

For many buyers, the ideal scenario is finding a vehicle that fits into both categories — perhaps a repossessed unit with minor cosmetic flaws. These “hybrid” opportunities allow for the maximum possible discount. By focusing on the structural and mechanical health revealed in the data, you can determine if a vehicle is worth the investment. The availability of 2026-level diagnostic tools and historical auction photos makes it easier than ever to assess the car’s condition at the exact moment the bank took possession.

Navigating the Bidding Process With Confidence

Success at a bank repo auction requires a combination of discipline and speed. Because these auctions move quickly, having your research completed beforehand is vital. We suggest creating a shortlist of potential targets and setting a maximum bid for each based on the “all-in” cost, including the winning bid, auction fees, and transport costs.

Once the bidding begins, the data you’ve gathered serves as your guide. If the price exceeds your calculated value, it is time to move on to the next unit. The volume of repossessed inventory is consistent enough that another opportunity is usually just a few days away. This “patience-led” strategy ensures you acquire only assets that meet your specific criteria for quality and price.

Finalizing the Logistics After the Auction Ends

The work isn’t finished when the screen says “Sold.” As mentioned, the transition period is critical. Most auction yards have limited space and will begin charging daily storage fees almost immediately. Coordinating with a reliable shipping partner ensures your new acquisition is picked up promptly, protecting your margins from unnecessary fees.

Furthermore, ensure that all title documentation is handled through the proper channels. Most auction platforms facilitate the transfer of title from the bank to the buyer, but timelines can vary by state and lender. Keeping a clear record of the bill of sale and the transport receipt is essential for a smooth registration process at the DMV.

Conclusion

The repossessed vehicle market is one of the most effective ways to acquire late-model transportation at a professional price. By moving away from the retail showroom and into the data-driven world of the auction, you gain access to a wider variety of inventory and a more transparent pricing structure. Whether you are a first-time buyer looking for a reliable sedan or a professional looking to expand a fleet, the combination of thorough history research and a disciplined bidding strategy is the key to unlocking the true value of repossessed assets.

Photo: DC Studio via their website.


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Expanding Bad Credit Loan Access: What This Means for America’s Borrowing Habits

For many years, getting approved for a loan in America was difficult if your credit history was less than perfect. Many borrowers found themselves with few options when traditional lenders turned them away. Today, that situation is changing as more lenders offer loan options designed for people with lower credit scores.

As access to bad credit loans expands, more Americans are finding it easier to borrow when they need financial help. Simple online applications and faster decisions have made loans more accessible than before. These changes are starting to influence how people borrow, manage money, and plan for unexpected expenses.

Rise in Online Loan Applications

The growth of digital lending has made online applications a normal part of the borrowing process. Today, borrowers can apply for loans from almost anywhere, giving them the freedom to explore options at their own pace. This convenience has encouraged more people to consider borrowing when financial needs arise.

Online lenders have also expanded access for individuals with less-than-perfect credit, offering solutions designed for a wider range of financial profiles. Companies such as CreditNinja, for instance, focus on providing online installment loans that can help cover unexpected expenses, medical bills, or other urgent costs. The ability to complete an application digitally and, in some cases, receive funds quickly has made this type of borrowing particularly practical in time-sensitive situations.

Digital tools have also made the application process easier to understand and complete. Clear instructions and simple forms guide borrowers through each step so they know what information is required. As online lending continues to expand, it is becoming an important part of how Americans borrow and manage short-term financial needs.

More People Using Loans for Everyday Expenses

Access to bad credit loans has enabled more households to use borrowing as a practical way to manage daily expenses. Instead of limiting loans to major purchases, many borrowers now use them to cover necessary costs that arise throughout the month. This approach gives people more flexibility when balancing income and expenses.

Many borrowers appreciate having an option available when bills or essential purchases cannot be postponed. Access to funds at the right time can help households stay current on essential financial obligations. As lending options continue to expand, short-term borrowing has become a more accessible and practical solution for a broader range of Americans

This shift reflects a broader change in how loans fit into personal financial planning. Borrowing is increasingly viewed as a tool that supports financial stability rather than a last resort. Expanded loan access has helped make this approach possible for more consumers.

Increased Reliance on Short-Term Credit

Short-term borrowing has become more common as access to loans expands to include a wider range of credit profiles. Many borrowers now have the opportunity to obtain funds quickly when temporary financial needs arise. This availability has made short-term credit a useful resource for managing short-term financial pressure.

Access to short-term loans enables borrowers to respond quickly to changing financial circumstances. Whether dealing with unexpected expenses or timing differences between income and bills, short-term credit offers a flexible solution. The ability to secure funds quickly is one reason more people are incorporating short-term loans into their financial plans.

Wider availability of these loans reflects how lending has adapted to modern financial needs. Borrowers benefit from options that match real-life situations rather than rigid lending standards. Expanded access to bad credit loans has played an important role in making these options available.

Faster Decision Making by Borrowers

Modern lending processes enable borrowers to move from application to decision far more efficiently than in the past. Quicker responses allow individuals to address financial needs without extended delays or uncertainty.This efficiency has become an important part of how people approach borrowing decisions.

When decisions can be made quickly, borrowers can plan with greater certainty. Knowing whether funds will be available helps people organize their finances and move forward with confidence. Faster timelines have made borrowing feel more manageable and predictable.

Improved technology has helped simplify each step of the borrowing process. Applications are designed to be straightforward to complete. As a result, borrowers can make informed choices without unnecessary delays.

More Frequent Borrowing Cycles

Improved loan access has made borrowing a more regular activity for some consumers. Instead of applying for loans only occasionally, borrowers may seek funding at different times throughout the year as needs arise. This pattern reflects the growing role of flexible credit in modern financial life.

Experience with the borrowing process often makes future applications easier and more familiar. Once borrowers understand how loan applications work, they tend to feel more comfortable using them again. This familiarity contributes to a steady pattern of borrowing over time.

A New Era of Borrowing

Borrowing is entering a new phase as more Americans gain access to loans that were once harder to get. With more options available, people have greater freedom to handle financial needs in ways that work for their situation.

Loans are becoming a more practical and accessible tool for managing everyday finances. This change is making credit easier to understand and use for a wider range of borrowers. As access to borrowing continues to grow, many Americans will have more opportunities to use it to support their financial goals.

Photo: Polina Tankilevitch via Pexels.


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Meridian Space Diplomacy Forum & Executive Space Training – March 25 & 26

Washington, D.C. — Meridian International Center today announced the return of its Space Diplomacy Forum: Shared Horizons (https://diplomacyforum.meridian.org/space), a half-day forum dedicated to advancing cooperation in outer space at a […]

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SSTL to build spacecraft for private space telescope

Lazuli

Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. (SSTL), a British company best known for developing small satellites, will help build a large, privately funded space telescope.

The post SSTL to build spacecraft for private space telescope appeared first on SpaceNews.

Missile detection satellites designed by BAE Systems pass early review

Space Force pushes ahead with medium Earth orbit sensor layer for hypersonic tracking

The post Missile detection satellites designed by BAE Systems pass early review appeared first on SpaceNews.

The Iran energy shock reverberates across financial markets

For investors, the war is like the invasion of Ukraine all over again

Starliner and Artemis: commercial label vs. commercial discipline

F9 launch 2026 Feb 7

NASA’s Commercial Crew Program was supposed to be the template: services-based procurement, private ownership of hardware and competition between providers. Yet NASA has now formally designated Boeing’s 2024 Starliner crewed test flight as a Type A mishap — its most serious category — and leadership has been explicit that the most troubling failure was not […]

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Lux Aeterna raises $10 million ahead of 2027 reusable satellite demo

Denver-based Lux Aeterna has secured $10 million in seed funding to develop a reusable satellite designed to survive atmospheric reentry and fly again with new payloads, starting with a demonstration flight slated for early 2027.

The post Lux Aeterna raises $10 million ahead of 2027 reusable satellite demo appeared first on SpaceNews.

Landspace tests 220-ton methane engine for future heavy-lift launchers

Chinese launch startup Landspace says it has completed a long-duration full-system hot-fire test of its new 220-ton-class methane rocket engine for new-generation launchers.

The post Landspace tests 220-ton methane engine for future heavy-lift launchers appeared first on SpaceNews.

Fuhito Kojima wins the R. K. Cho Economics Prize from Yonsei University

 Here's the announcement:

R. K. Cho Economics Prize 

"The R. K. Cho Economics Prize 2026 will be awarded to Professor Fuhito Kojima (University of Tokyo) for the practical development and implementation of matching theory.

"Professor Kojima is a leading scholar in the fields of matching theory and market design. He has developed these fields by studying practical aspects of matching markets such as large markets and distributional constraints. Building on his theoretical knowledge, he has contributed to the improvement of real-world matching and allocation mechanisms, including medical residency programs and nursery school admissions in Japan."

Here's the program of celebratory events:

2026 R. K. Cho Economics Prize Events  (May 6-8)

Symposium Celebrating 
Fuhito Kojima's Prize
323 Daewoo Hall, Yonsei University
May 6 (Wednesday)
9:00-9:20 Registration, Opening Remark

9:20-10:10 Fuhito Kojima (University of Tokyo)

"Fragmentation of Matching Markets and How Economics Can Help Integrate Them"

10:10-11:00 Michihiro Kandori (University of Tokyo)

"The Second Welfare Theorem in Markets with Discrete and Continuous Goods"

11:10-12:00 Yeon-Koo Che (Columbia University)

"Learning Against Nature: Minimax Regret and the Price of Robustness"

13:00-13:50 Duk Gyoo Kim (Yonsei University)

"Good-Citizen Lottery"

14:00-14:50 Jinwoo Kim (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

"Monotone Comparative Statics without Lattices"

Prize Ceremony
B130 Daewoo Hall, Yonsei University
May 6 (Wednesday)
15:00-15:20 Registration

15:20-16:10 Award Ceremony

16:20-17:10 Award Lecture by Fuhito Kojima

"Science and Engineering of Market Design: Call for Action"


Fuhito Kojima Public Lecture Series
323 Daewoo Hall, Yonsei University
May 7 (Thursday)
13:00-14:30 Lecture 1: "Introduction to Matching Theory and Market Design"

15:00-16:30 Lecture 2: "How to Use Market Design under Practical Constraints of Society: Part 1"

May 8 (Friday)
10:00-11:30 Lecture 3: "How to Use Market Design under Practical Constraints of Society: Part 2"

Organizers: Jaeok Park, Daeyoung Jeong, Duk Gyoo Kim

Contact: rkcho.prize@yonsei.ac.kr 

Is Spotify Enabling Massive Impersonation of Famous Jazz Musicians?

I saw the first warning sign just ten days ago.

But even in that short period of time, the problem seems to have grown significantly. I don’t even want to imagine what the situation might be a month from now.

On February 28, I received an email from reader Biff LaTourette:

Is there anyplace to report synthetic, misattributed content on Spotify, with an eye to deterring such conduct? This morning, Spotify fed me an obviously counterfeit EP, purporting to be a collaboration by Benny Green and Freddy Cole.

Do you know how I could reach out to either Mr. Green or Mr. Cole’s estate? Does one of the royalty guardian outfits cover such infringement? Here’s the Spotify link.

Here’s the Lynkify summary of the same collection proliferated on Soundcloud and Tidal.

This was alarming—but I wanted to make sure this was really impersonation. So I reached out to Benny Green, who is a Facebook friend.

screenshot

Benny confirmed that this was a fake—he didn’t release this album. He said his manager was working to get it taken down.

But this isn’t easy to do. As far as I can see, there is no easy way to protest illegal tracks on Spotify.

The following day, Benny Green reached out to his fans, asking for their help in finding some way to get Spotify to deal with the problem. But when I checked again today—a full week later—the offending album was still streaming.

And then the problem got worse.


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Three days ago, I hear from another reader—Atlanta-based drummer Justin Chesarek. He had found another impersonation of a well-known jazz musician.

I wanted to share another discovery I made today….I just finished working with a student on Nat Adderley’s “Hippodelphia” when Spotify recommended a new track by Nat. The first sign was that it had a white trumpet player on the thumbnail image, then the name didn’t sound like any tune I had heard of before. It said “released 2026”. Clicked on it, and was subject to some terrible slop recording with no trumpet even on it and a very generic beat. I have uploaded some photos of the images they posted. Zoom in on the 3 handed bass/saxophone player!

I hate this so much. The credits do list Nat as the artist but then somebody else got lyric credit and I can guarantee they are not paying any royalties to Nat’s estate. Is there anything we can do to stop this obvious scam from further devaluing and defacing the artists and their music even more than streaming services have already?

No, this doesn’t look like Nat Adderley

But the scariest part of the story came next.

Just 12 minutes later, I got another email from Biff LaTourette

I hate to bother you again, but it appears someone is scaling up the illicit production and distribution of similar dreck on Spotify. This morning’s Release Radar featured another series of fraudulent misattributions in my feed.

Current victims include Marc Johnson, Jazzmeia Horn, Abbey Lincoln, Holly Cole, Gretchen Parlato, Bob Dorough, Billy Strayhorn, Bud Shank, and Nnenna Freelon. I’ve compiled links below to each misattributed song and album, along with Lynkify links to help assess the extent of proliferation across other platforms. I’ve also included the copyright notices that appear on the album pages of each suspect track.

Nine out of sixty-five cuts are falsely attributed synthetic dross—just shy of fourteen percent of my little feed. The volume of fraudulent slop flooding the platform seems to be reaching critical mass.

Is there an industry watchdog, public interest law firm, or other avenue that might be interested in addressing—or “spanking”—these spammers? If you have any thoughts on effective deterrence strategies, or if additional research on my end would be helpful, please let me know….

As of today, the albums linked all contained just one cut, with the exception of Marc Johnson. His fake EP contained five bogus titles. The production quality is less awful on the Johnson fabrications, compared with the rest.

You can check out these links, and judge for yourself whether these are authentic:

Several of these artists are deceased, and it’s not clear who will step in to defend them from AI impersonation.

Here’ the bottom line: This problem appears to have grown massively in just a few days. And if AI scammers can steal royalties without consequences, this will metastasize like a cancer throughout the music economy.

The fact that Spotify is encouraging listeners to check out these albums is especially troubling. I know so many deserving musicians who will never get this kind of promotion from a streaming service. Meanwhile impersonations are boosted.

Scammers are probably starting with jazz because these musicians have complicated discographies, and few listeners are knowledgeable enough to identify fake music. But if there’s no crackdown, this will quickly expand to other genres—maybe it already has.

Streaming platforms need to provide a simple way for users to flag illegal music. And they need to remove AI impersonations immediately. Companies involved in these scams should be prohibited from using the platform.

If streamers don’t do this, they must face consequences.

I will keep posted on this growing crisis. So check back here for updates.

Advantageous Selection

I tweeted: Should I be worried or reassured that my taxi driver isn’t wearing a seat belt? An econ puzzle.

Most replies said I should be worried. I think that is correct and it reveals something of importance. First note that there is an incentive and a selection effect. All else equal, a driver without a seat belt should drive more carefully—that’s the rational response to increased personal risk. But drivers who forgo seat belts are probably more risk-loving or less safety-conscious across many dimensions. I think the replies were correct, the second effect, the selection effect, dominates: be worried.

What makes this an economics puzzle is that it reveals a failure of the standard adverse selection story. Adverse selection predicts that if someone wants to buy a lot of life insurance, the seller should be suspicious—fearing the buyer knows something about their own health that the seller doesn’t. Unusually healthy people, by the same logic, should buy less life insurance.

Notice the parallel to the taxi driver: the driver is buying less insurance (by not wearing a seat belt) and so, by adverse selection logic, should be the safer type. But that’s exactly backwards.

In reality, people who buy a lot of life insurance tend to be the kind of people who take care of themselves on many margins—they eat well, exercise, go to the doctor. Insurers know this, which is why the per-unit price of life insurance falls with quantity. Big buyers are the good risk, not the bad one.

The taxi driver puzzle is a clean real-world case where the selection effect runs opposite to what adverse selection theory predicts. Adverse selection theory is correct that information asymmetries can challenge markets but it’s often not obvious which way the asymmetry runs (who know more about your life expectancy, you or an insurance company with millions of data points?). Moreover, preferences and norms can make the selection run the opposite way so be worried about the taxi driver without a seat belt and be happy when someone demands a lot of life insurance.

The post Advantageous Selection appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Does culture make emotion?

Sepia-toned photo of silhouetted figures dancing with sticks in a smoky environment, creating a dramatic atmosphere.

Franz Boas helps us solve the puzzle of where our emotional lives originate: in our selves or in the cultures around us

- by Noga Arikha

Read on Aeon

Severe Thunderstorm, Flooding, and Winter Weather Threats on Tuesday

Are the small tax havens really all that safe?

That is the theme of my latest Free Press column, excerpt:

If you are a Dubai resident, the chance that you will die in this conflict is very small. But you no longer can treat safety as something you do not have to think about. And you may face some uncertainty about when and how you can leave the country, a question that formerly was never in doubt. So two major advantages have vanished, even if the current conflict is settled soon. Another problem is that a substantial part of your supply of desalinated fresh water can be taken out by a well-placed missile.

More generally, the war underlines how tenuous the position of a place like Dubai is in the geopolitical order. I have enjoyed my three trips to Dubai, but I never felt entirely safe there on anything beyond a day-to-day basis. I always knew the place relied on protection from the United States and a certain degree of forbearance from its larger neighbors, including Saudi Arabia. Both Dubai and its larger encompassing unit, the United Arab Emirates, are extremely small.

And:

In most daily life, the small tax havens will feel safer than Cape Town. In the longer run, I am not entirely sure. My longer-run plans might be more robust in Cape Town. Or in Brazil. Or in Mexico. Those are all fairly dangerous places that nonetheless seem to have considerable macro stability in the longer run. South Africa has a pre-1930 history of taking in persecuted Jews from Europe and giving them an environment where they can thrive. Even the coming and going of apartheid, in 1948 and 1994, did not change South Africa’s high degree of security from foreign threats.

Dare I suggest that these larger places are more fun and also have more soul?

Worth a ponder.

I would much rather be exiled to Cape Town than to Dubai, all things considered, even assuming away the current conflict in the Middle East.

The post Are the small tax havens really all that safe? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Home Remedies

As always, you are permitted to call one person for guidance, but that person must be a grandparent.

New Attack Against Wi-Fi

It’s called AirSnitch:

Unlike previous Wi-Fi attacks, AirSnitch exploits core features in Layers 1 and 2 and the failure to bind and synchronize a client across these and higher layers, other nodes, and other network names such as SSIDs (Service Set Identifiers). This cross-layer identity desynchronization is the key driver of AirSnitch attacks.

The most powerful such attack is a full, bidirectional machine-in-the-middle (MitM) attack, meaning the attacker can view and modify data before it makes its way to the intended recipient. The attacker can be on the same SSID, a separate one, or even a separate network segment tied to the same AP. It works against small Wi-Fi networks in both homes and offices and large networks in enterprises.

With the ability to intercept all link-layer traffic (that is, the traffic as it passes between Layers 1 and 2), an attacker can perform other attacks on higher layers. The most dire consequence occurs when an Internet connection isn’t encrypted­—something that Google recently estimated occurred when as much as 6 percent and 20 percent of pages loaded on Windows and Linux, respectively. In these cases, the attacker can view and modify all traffic in the clear and steal authentication cookies, passwords, payment card details, and any other sensitive data. Since many company intranets are sent in plaintext, traffic from them can also be intercepted.

Even when HTTPS is in place, an attacker can still intercept domain look-up traffic and use DNS cache poisoning to corrupt tables stored by the target’s operating system. The AirSnitch MitM also puts the attacker in the position to wage attacks against vulnerabilities that may not be patched. Attackers can also see the external IP addresses hosting webpages being visited and often correlate them with the precise URL.

Here’s the paper.

The trajectories of science and AI

From my podcast with Nebular:

Cowen: Mainly what they have done is tricked people. The Apollo program was a big trick. It was not intended as a trick. I’m pretty sure almost everyone behind it was quite sincere that it would lead to whatever. It was vague all along, but everyone was truly excited back then. I even remember those times, but it didn’t lead to what we were promised at all.

And you see that when you compare science fiction over time. So I think the norm is that new technology comes and people are tricked. Again, it doesn’t have to be a sinister, devious, conspiracy laden thing, but in fact, they’re tricked. And then it happens anyway. And then we clean up the mess and deal with it and move on to the next set of problems.

And that’s what I think it will be with AI as well.

Murphy: What is the trick with AI?

Cowen: It’s the old paradox. When you add grains of sugar to your coffee. Every extra grain is fine, or it may even taste better, but at some point, you’ve just added too many grains. So that’s the way it is with change. People use ChatGPT. It diagnoses your dog. Do I need to take the dog to the vet? What’s with this rash?

You take the photo…You get a great answer. Everyone’s happy. They’re not actually going to be happy at all the changes that will bring. And here I’m talking about positive ones. I’m not saying, oh, it’s going to kill us all. People just don’t like change that much. So they’ll be sold on the immediate, concrete things and end up seeing things happen where they feel there’s too much change because it will devalue their human capital, and we’ll adjust and get over it and move on to the next set of tricks. That’s my forecast.

Murphy: People don’t like change, but also people are bad at long term planning. Yeah. You’ve spoken before about how faith is a key requirement in terms of being able to plan over the long term. How do you bring that idea to policymakers?

Cowen: I don’t know, I think things will get pushed through for myopic reasons, like we must outpace China, which might even be true, to be clear, but it’s a somewhat myopic reason, and that will be the selling point. You know, I’ve read a lot of texts from the early days of the Industrial Revolution. Adam Smith is one of them, but there’s many others, and a lot of people are for what’s going on, they understand they will be richer, maybe healthier.

They do see the downsides, but they have a pretty decent perspective. But no one from then understood. You’d have this second order fossil fuel revolution, say the 1880s where just things explode and the world is very much different. And whether they would have liked that, you can debate, but they just didn’t see it at all.

We’re probably in a somewhat analogous position. I would say that the Second Industrial Revolution was the more important one. It was a very good thing, even though climate change is a big problem, but it really built the modern world. And with something like AI or any advance, there’s probably some second order version of it that’s coming in our equivalent of 1880 that we just don’t see, and it will be wonderful for us.

But if you told us, we’d be terrified. So how should you feel about myopia? I think as an intellectual, you should be willing to talk about it openly and honestly. But at the end of the day, I think myopia still will rule. And I’m not in a big panic about that.

To recap:

We’ve just published the video on YouTubeXSpotify, and Apple Podcasts. We also published some extended show notes and the transcript on Substack.

The post The trajectories of science and AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Is It Difficult to Date in the Hustle and Bustle of Washington, D.C.?

Washington, D.C. has more single people per capita than almost any major American city, and yet the running complaint among those same single people is that they cannot find anyone worth seeing twice. That contradiction tells you something about the place. A city full of ambitious, educated, overworked professionals who are all technically available but functionally unreachable produces a dating environment that frustrates nearly everyone in it. The numbers say the options are there. The lived reality says otherwise, which is why conversations about dating in Washington, D.C. often sound more pessimistic than the statistics suggest.

The Numbers Look Promising Until They Don’t

About 69.3% of D.C. residents aged 20 and older are single, per U.S. Census data. Compare that to the national figure of 49.1%, and the city looks like it should be one of the easiest places in the country to meet someone. But a closer look at the same Census Bureau data shows a persistent imbalance: there are roughly 80 unmarried men for every 100 unmarried women in the city. That gap puts pressure on the dating pool in ways that raw totals never capture.

The Chamber of Commerce has ranked D.C. as the loneliest city in the country. Nearly 48.6% of its households consist of a single person living alone. A large unmarried population and a large lonely population existing in the same city at the same time is not a paradox. It is a predictable outcome when people are too busy, too burned out, or too guarded to form the connections they say they want.

Relationships Outside Conventionality

Washington, D.C. has a dating pool where 69.3% of residents aged 20 and older are single, according to U.S. Census data, yet finding a compatible partner remains stubbornly hard. With careers consuming most of the energy people in their twenties and thirties have, many pursue connections that fit their actual lives rather than conventional expectations. Some look into sugar baby dating, others prefer casual arrangements, and plenty still aim for long-term commitment.

The point is that no single model of dating works for everyone in a city this career-driven. People make choices based on what they want and what they realistically have time for, and those choices vary widely from person to person.

Work Comes First, and Everything Else Gets the Leftovers

Careers dominate the lives of D.C. residents in their 20s and 30s in a way that is hard to overstate. Long hours, demanding roles, and the social pressure to appear constantly productive push dating into whatever small windows remain at the end of the week. A Wednesday evening after a 12-hour day does not leave much room for genuine curiosity about another person.

As Washingtonian has reported, a dating coach in the area has had to tell clients to leave their “networking mindset at the office,” because people are “too focused on qualifying the buyer.” That phrasing is telling. When you treat a date the way you treat a professional contact, you are filtering for credentials, not chemistry.

The result is a lot of polite first dates that feel like interviews. People ask about job titles, alma maters, and five-year plans before they ask a single question that might reveal personality. That approach weeds out plenty of good matches for the wrong reasons.

App Fatigue Is Real and Getting Worse

A Forbes Health survey conducted with OnePoll found that 78% of dating app users report burnout. Among Millennials and Gen Z, that number rises to 79%. Dating in Washington, D.C. sits right at the center of this exhaustion.

WTOP reported that one D.C. matchmaker saw nearly four times the average number of clients under 30, with young professionals openly admitting they were already tired of the apps and burned out before they had even turned 28.

Washingtonian described dating apps as a “digital hellscape,” and a 2023 Pew report cited in the same article found 46% of respondents had somewhat negative online dating outcomes. The fatigue in D.C. is compounded by the fact that many people are swiping after long workdays when their patience and attention are already depleted. Conversations fizzle. Matches go unanswered. Plans get canceled.

The Cost of Going on a Date

Even when two people manage to find the time and energy to meet, D.C. makes them pay for it. A study by The Black Tux found D.C. is the sixth most expensive city for dating in the country. Dinner and drinks in most neighborhoods will run well above $100 for two people, and that adds up fast when you are going on multiple first dates a month trying to find someone compatible.

The expense discourages frequency. People become more selective about who they will spend money on, which in theory sounds reasonable but in practice means fewer chances to connect with someone who might surprise them.

Is It Difficult?

Yes. The city has a large pool of single people, a gender ratio that works against women in particular, a culture of overwork that sidelines personal connection, widespread app burnout, and a high cost of going out. Each of these factors is manageable on its own. Stacked together, they make Washington, D.C. one of the harder American cities to date in, despite the fact that nearly seven out of ten adults in it are available.

The problem was never supply. The problem is that supply alone has never been enough.

Conclusion

Dating in Washington, D.C. highlights the difference between theoretical opportunity and real-world experience. On paper, the city appears ideal for singles, with a large population of educated and unattached professionals. In practice, the pace of work, the imbalance in the gender ratio, the fatigue created by dating apps, and the high cost of socializing combine to make genuine connection harder than statistics alone would suggest.

The result is a dating environment where availability does not automatically translate into compatibility or meaningful relationships. For many people navigating the D.C. dating scene, success often depends less on the size of the dating pool and more on patience, timing, and the ability to look beyond the city’s demanding professional culture in order to build authentic connections.

Photo: frimufilms via Freepik.


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Shades of a Lunar Eclipse

A grayscale composite satellite image centered on Alaska shows observations at several times during a total lunar eclipse. Snow, ice, and clouds appear bright in swaths acquired before and after the eclipse and darker gray in the partial phase. The scene during the total phase is mostly black.
March 3, 2026

On March 3, 2026, Earth lined up directly between the Moon and the Sun, casting its shadow on the full Moon. The total lunar eclipse was visible throughout the Americas, East Asia, Australia, and the Pacific. Skygazers in those parts of the world may have witnessed a “Blood Moon,” when the dimmed lunar surface temporarily turned an orange-red color.

Meanwhile, satellites observed the effect of the darkened Moon on Earth’s surface. Changes in the amount of moonlight reflected back to Earth as the eclipse progressed appear in this composite image, composed of nighttime observations made by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-21 satellite. The satellite collected these images of the Arctic about every 100 minutes, with earlier swaths toward the right and later swaths to the left.

The VIIRS day-night band detects nighttime light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses filtering techniques to observe signals such as city lights, reflected moonlight, and auroras. The darkest swath was acquired at 11:20 Universal Time (2:20 a.m. Alaska Standard Time), about 15 minutes after the total phase had begun. With very little moonlight reaching Earth, ribbons of light from the aurora borealis shine through, along with specks of artificial light from settlements in the Yukon and eastern Alaska.

When the satellite passed over western Alaska and the Bering Strait, at 13:00 Universal Time (4:00 a.m. Alaska Standard Time), the eclipse was in the partial phase. The scene is noticeably brighter than the earlier one, and light from the partially shaded Moon illuminates snow-covered topography and offshore clouds. The brightest swaths on the far right and left sides were acquired before and after the eclipse, respectively, with light from the full Moon.

The next chance to view a total lunar eclipse will occur on December 31, 2028, when it will add a dash of astronomical flair to New Year’s Eve celebrations in Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia, and the Pacific.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using VIIRS day-night band data from NASA EOSDIS LANCEGIBS/Worldview, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

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The post Shades of a Lunar Eclipse appeared first on NASA Science.

After falling far behind the rest of industry, Blue Origin creates new stock option plan

Two years after he founded his space company in the summer of 2004, Jeff Bezos penned a letter that greeted new employees with the message, "Welcome to Blue Origin!" A copy of this letter was subsequently given to new employees for nearly two decades.

At one point in the letter, Bezos questioned whether Blue Origin was a good investment.

"I accept that Blue Origin will not meet a reasonable investor's expectations for return on investment over a typical investing horizon," Bezos wrote. "It's important to the peace of mind of those at Blue to know I won't be surprised or disappointed when this prediction comes true. On the other hand, I do expect that over a very long-term horizon—perhaps even decades from now—Blue will be self-sustaining and operationally profitable, and will yield returns."

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Imagine three Chinas

In November 2009, I did a blog post entitled “India as #1

When Tyler Cowen asked me for my most absurd belief, one idea that I came up with was that India will have the world’s largest economy in the year 2109.

First let’s ask ourselves why most people would find this prediction a bit far-fetched. Most of us have never even visited India, but we have seen media images that often show a very crowded and underdeveloped country. It is very hard to imagine how India’s economy could ever surpass the US. More astute observers might notice that India does have nearly 4 times the US population, and it is not that hard to imagine that their per capita GDP might eventually reach 30% of US levels.

But the population advantage of India raises an even greater hurtle. Right now, China has a per capita GDP that is twice as high as India’s. Even worse, China is growing more rapidly. And China’s total population is larger than India’s. So how could India possibly overtake China within the next 100 years?

We are still a long way from the year 2109, but two of the three things I mentioned have already reversed. India now has a larger population than China, and India’s economy is now growing considerably faster than China’s economy.

And this is only the beginning. Since writing that post, China’s fertility rate has plunged far more dramatically than anticipated. While India’s current population is only few percentage points larger than China’s current population, Indian fertility is far higher. In 2025, China had 7.92 million births, whereas India had roughly 23 million. Those figures provide a hint as to the relative size of each country’s workforce in the second half of this century. The future of these two demographic giants will look vastly different than the present.

Less than a year after my 2009 forecast, I became even more optimistic about India:

So here’s the new prediction:

Year: 2081

Workforce ratio: China will have 60% of India’s workforce.

Productivity ratio: India will have 60% of China’s worker productivity.

GDP ratio: 1:1

Fortunately, I won’t be alive then to be mocked for my prediction. Poor Lester Thurow and Robert Fogel may not avoid that ignominious fate. Ultra-pessimistic Thurow says it will take China at least 100 years to catch up to the US in GDP (actually, they are just 5 to 7 years away in PPP terms.) And ultra-optimistic Fogel says China will have twice the EU’s per capita GDP by 2040. Twice!?!? Fogel’s a great economist, but I wouldn’t say that forecasting GDP is his strong suit.

I was right about China surpassing the US in total GDP in PPP terms, and I will very likely be right that China will not be twice as rich as Europe by 2040 in per capita terms. Perhaps it’s worth another post to consider why very smart people can make such seemingly implausible predictions. But then some would view my India #1 prediction as just as implausible, so who am I to complain?

In any case, it is now pretty clear than in 2081 China’s workforce won’t be anywhere near 60% of India’s workforce, perhaps only a third as large. India’s per capita GDP (PPP) is currently barely 40% of China’s, but India is growing considerably faster and will likely eventually reach 60% of China’s per capita income.

Intelligent people know just how hard it is to predict the distant future. Heck, even 5 years ago most of us failed to see that AI was about to become a big story, just as 7 years ago most of us failed to predict Covid. Even a month ago, I didn’t anticipate the Iran War (although I did frequently tell my readers that nationalism inevitably leads to militarism.)

Given the difficulty in predicting the future, we need to overweight surprising trends that we now know with almost 100% certainty. One of those trends is that in the year 2055, there will be roughly three times more 30-year-old Indians than 30-year-old Chinese. That’s because we now live in a world where relatively few people die young, and immigration/emigration trends simply don’t move the needle very much in countries with 1.4 billion people. Futurologist should begin their analysis with surprising trends that we already know will happen and work outward from those points.

PS. In 2011, I moved the crossing point up to the year 2060. As with my TDS, no matter how outrageous my predictions, I cannot keep up with reality.

photo of Taj Mahal
Photo by Julian Yu on Unsplash

PPS. And don’t say, “total GDP doesn’t matter”. Total GDP matters when considering size of an economy and per capita GDP matters when considering living standards. For instance, the huge size of China’s economy results in it having a disproportionate impact on global commodity markets. You might think it doesn’t matter that Germany’s GDP is larger than Belgium’s GDP, despite a lower GDP per capita. I do.

Trump Now MoonWalking Away From Regime Change As Fast As He Can

Yesterday UN Ambassador Mike Waltz announced that the US was moving ahead rapidly to achieve all its war objectives which he listed as 1) destroying Iran’s missiles, 2) eliminating its nuclear program and 3) ending its ability to do terrorism. So much for regime change, it seems and also unconditional surrender, both of which don’t seem remotely in the ballpark any time soon. That was the trial balloon. Then today President Trump followed up on this by declaring that the war is actually pretty much over already.

He told CBS News’s Weijia Jiang that “the war is very complete, pretty much” and that the US is “very far” ahead of the initial 4 to 5 week timeline. “The war is very complete,” he said in case there was any ambiguity about his words. Indeed, in his vaguely genocidal way Trump seemed to implicitly take regime change off the table by threatening either regime change or perhaps genocide if Iran got “cute.”

“They better not try anything cute,” he told Jiang, “or it’s going to be the end of that country.”

Again, where’s regime change? Where’s unconditional surrender? That’s old news, I guess. By this evening it might even be fake news.

What this all comes down to is that the White House is running as fast as it can from regime change and even faster from its demand for “unconditional surrender”. Trump wants to be done because the conflict is getting too messy, Gulf allies are certainly privately asking WTAF Trump’s plan is and more than anything else Trump is realizing that he is triggering what has been the most reliable presidency killer in American politics for more than half a century: spiking gas prices.

On gas prices, Trump is saying they’ll be back down very fast. But that’s not remotely how it works. Once gas prices really spike the half life of the price rise is really long. The oil and gas shock that came out of the Ukraine War wasn’t nearly as severe as many feared. But it still ran pretty much right through the end of Biden’s presidency.

Trump wants out now. Or at least he does today. Tomorrow may be another story.

We Need Your Help Today

This is week two of this year’s Annual TPM Membership Drive. We started to get traction at the end of last week. Today we really need to keep that going. If you’re not a member, please consider joining today. This is our lifeblood. It’s what we need to keep doing this work and, if possible, expand our reach going forward. If you’re a new reader or maybe your membership lapsed, we need you back. Just click right here. If you’re on the fence, we’re even offering a 25% discount.

This week I’m going to be telling you some of our plans for the coming year and how you and our growing community figure into those plans.

Iran and Asymmetric Wars of Attrition

Sometimes I write a post where I don’t know the topic well enough to discuss it expertly but I understand it enough to point to the outlines of the debate and where to find more information. This is one of those posts. Here, I want to discuss drones and missiles deployed by Iran and the expensive, high-tech weapons the U.S. and its allies use to shoot them down. This applies right now in the Persian Gulf where Iran is using a strategy of “asymmetric attrition.” But it would apply in even more complicated and hard-to-address ways if and when the U.S. got into a major conflict with, say, China over Taiwan. It’s that basic challenge of asymmetric warfare for a Great Power like the United States: the U.S. relies on often quite effective but very expensive and hard to replace weaponry. Iran’s clunky but effective drones cost in the low five-figures to produce, while U.S. missile defense tech can costs millions for a single shot.

As this article in SpyTalk explains, Iran’s missile capacity, which provided a key part of its deterrence, has largely come up empty in this conflict. That was even more the case last year when Israel shattered Iran’s air defenses and bombed the country almost at will, while Iran was barely able to damage Israel. A mix of U.S. and Israeli made defensive weaponry were able to drastically limit Iran’s ability to strike Israel. Head to head, these anti-missile and anti-drone systems and munitions are stunningly effective.

But there’s another layer of the story. Iran can produce its signature Shahed-136 drones rapidly and seemingly without limit, or at least it could pre-war. Those cost about $20,000 a piece. The Patriot and SM-6 interceptors the U.S. and its Gulf allies often need to use to intercept them cost in the millions. (Here’s a Times piece on this price asymmetry.) Cost is one thing. Presumably, when it’s important, the U.S. can spend a lot. We’re rich and usually vastly richer and with a bigger tax base than almost any country we go to war with. But it’s not just cost. These high-tech weapons take time to make and they rely on rare earth metals and other scarce supplies that the U.S, doesn’t entirely control. This is a question I want to learn more about. But I’m routinely surprised at how quickly the U.S. appears to run low on these kinds of munitions whether it’s in direct combat with Iran or as a supplier to countries like Ukraine.

“Run low” can obviously mean a lot of things. The U.S. has moved on from its longtime “two war doctrine,” being capable of winning two major regional conflicts simultaneously. But “low” probably seldom means you’re out. It means you’re getting low when you take into account levels needed to fight various potential conflicts the Pentagon wants to be ready for at all times. Of course the Pentagon is going to be vague about anything like this because just how much reserves it has is a pretty critical state secret. You want to keep potential adversaries guessing. But it doesn’t seem like it’s just shortages in the supplies that aren’t needed for other contingencies. The U.S. military seems to run into supply constraints pretty quickly. More important, the U.S. doesn’t seem to have the industrial capacity to produce these weapons as quickly as they’re likely to be expended in a drawn out major power conflict.

That issue of speed of replenishment is critical, in a way more critical than the size of the stockpiles. If we got into a major conflict with China over Taiwan and it went on for a long time, the U.S. doesn’t appear to have an industrial capacity to resupply these weapons on an ongoing basis. An additional factor is that all these high-tech weapons require rare earth metals for their production, a critical resource that China dominates globally. In a wartime situation, the U.S. would likely claim all the rare earth materials being used for civilian purposes in supply chains it controls. And maybe that would be enough. But it’s a real vulnerability, and it puts time limits on the U.S.’s military dominance. You can have military dominance. But if a critical part of that dominance only last weeks or months, that’s a problem. For now, it seems clear to experts that Iran’s strategy is to absorb the punishment from the skies and keep sending waves of drones into neighboring counties until the U.S. stockpiles are run dry.

Here’s a (likely paywalled) article in Foreign Policy which looks how many munitions, drones and interceptors each side is using, the cost and how simple or hard they are to replenish in real time.

Needless to say, Pentagon planners have given these matters a lot of thought. I’m not saying anything that people who work in these areas don’t know. But it’s a basic question that looms over any conflict like this and whether a lower tech, perhaps less wealthy adversary could grind the U.S. down in a battle of attrition we’re not — in industrial terms — prepared for.

Yes, but can your tree do this? Yes, but can your tree do this?


Production query plans without production data

Production query plans without production data

Radim Marek describes the new pg_restore_relation_stats() and pg_restore_attribute_stats() functions that were introduced in PostgreSQL 18 in September 2025.

The PostgreSQL query planner makes use of internal statistics to help it decide how to best execute a query. These statistics often differ between production data and development environments, which means the query plans used in production may not be replicable in development.

PostgreSQL's new features now let you copy those statistics down to your development environment, allowing you to simulate the plans for production workloads without needing to copy in all of that data first.

I found this illustrative example useful:

SELECT pg_restore_attribute_stats(
    'schemaname', 'public',
    'relname', 'test_orders',
    'attname', 'status',
    'inherited', false::boolean,
    'null_frac', 0.0::real,
    'avg_width', 9::integer,
    'n_distinct', 5::real,
    'most_common_vals', '{delivered,shipped,cancelled,pending,returned}'::text,
    'most_common_freqs', '{0.95,0.015,0.015,0.015,0.005}'::real[]
);

This simulates statistics for a status column that is 95% delivered. Based on these statistics PostgreSQL can decide to use an index for status = 'shipped' but to instead perform a full table scan for status = 'delivered'.

These statistics are pretty small. Radim says:

Statistics dumps are tiny. A database with hundreds of tables and thousands of columns produces a statistics dump under 1MB. The production data might be hundreds of GB. The statistics that describe it fit in a text file.

I posted on the SQLite user forum asking if SQLite could offer a similar feature and D. Richard Hipp promptly replied that it has one already:

All of the data statistics used by the query planner in SQLite are available in the sqlite_stat1 table (or also in the sqlite_stat4 table if you happen to have compiled with SQLITE_ENABLE_STAT4). That table is writable. You can inject whatever alternative statistics you like.

This approach to controlling the query planner is mentioned in the documentation: https://sqlite.org/optoverview.html#manual_control_of_query_plans_using_sqlite_stat_tables.

See also https://sqlite.org/lang_analyze.html#fixed_results_of_analyze.

The ".fullschema" command in the CLI outputs both the schema and the content of the sqlite_statN tables, exactly for the reasons outlined above - so that we can reproduce query problems for testing without have to load multi-terabyte database files.

Via Lobste.rs

Tags: databases, postgresql, sql, sqlite, d-richard-hipp

Perhaps not Boring Technology after all

A recurring concern I've seen regarding LLMs for programming is that they will push our technology choices towards the tools that are best represented in their training data, making it harder for new, better tools to break through the noise.

This was certainly the case a couple of years ago, when asking models for help with Python or JavaScript appeared to give much better results than questions about less widely used languages.

With the latest models running in good coding agent harnesses I'm not sure this continues to hold up.

I'm seeing excellent results with my brand new tools where I start by prompting "use uvx showboat --help / rodney --help / chartroom --help to learn about these tools" - the context length of these new models is long enough that they can consume quite a lot of documentation before they start working on a problem.

Drop a coding agent into any existing codebase that uses libraries and tools that are too private or too new to feature in the training data and my experience is that it works just fine - the agent will consult enough of the existing examples to understand patterns, then iterate and test its own output to fill in the gaps.

This is a surprising result. I thought coding agents would prove to be the ultimate embodiment of the Choose Boring Technology approach, but in practice they don't seem to be affecting my technology choices in that way at all.

Update: A few follow-on thoughts:

  1. The issue of what technology LLMs recommend is a separate one. What Claude Code Actually Chooses is an interesting recent study where Edwin Ong and Alex Vikati where they proved Claude Code over 2,000 times and found a strong bias towards build-over-buy but also identified a preferred technical stack, with GitHub Actions, Stripe, and shadcn/ui seeing a "near monopoly" in their respective categories. For the sake of this post my interest is in what happens when the human makes a technology choice that differs from those preferred by the model harness.
  2. The Skills mechanism that is being rapidly embraced by most coding agent tools is super-relevant here. We are already seeing projects release official skills to help agents use them - here are examples from Remotion, Supabase, Vercel, and Prisma.

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, ai-assisted-programming, boring-technology, coding-agents, agentic-engineering, november-2025-inflection

Poster Stamps

I can’t remember where I got them, but some years ago, I got two well-used albums of poster stamps. This is what Perplexity AI says about them:

Poster stamps are small, gummed advertising labels, slightly larger than postage stamps, popular from the late 19th century through the 1920s, often featuring miniature poster art for products, events, or causes.

They peaked in the 1910s “Golden Era,” with a craze among collectors who pasted them into special albums or scrapbooks, much like postage stamps. Production continued into the 1920s and 1930s, but interest waned after World War I, though they remained affordable souvenirs for children and adults.

People got them free from companies, contests, or events and mounted them in dedicated albums. Today, they’re valued by philatelists as ‘cinderella stamps’—non-postal labels—often found in vintage scrapbooks at auctions or online.

Live From California with Lloyd Kahn is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The Poster Stamp Collectors Club is a good source of information. They write:

Poster Stamps can be classified by their purpose into categories:

As promotion for an event- such as a concert, exposition, or exhibit, or

As commercial advertising- for a product or service or tourist location, or

As political or social propaganda- for a movement or a political candidate, or

As promotion of charitable giving to a particular need or non-profit group, or

As a souvenir to be saved, commemorating something: that is, a poster stamp that is propaganda, but is “preaching to the choir”.

Poster Stamps proved to be a powerful medium in the early 1900’s, and almost immediately both children and adults began saving them. But the peak of popularity was long ago, thus many stamp collectors have not seen Poster Stamps and are surprised by their beauty and appeal.

Thanks for reading Live From California with Lloyd Kahn! This post is public so feel free to share it.

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Dire Strait

A graph of a stock market

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Just a brief note, because yesterday was a travel day and I didn’t even try to draft a full post — which was just as well, because oil markets went wild while I was airborne.

In a way that was odd, because the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war on Iran began, with no obvious way to get it reopened quickly. As I showed in yesterday’s primer, continued closure of the Strait is a shock to world oil supplies bigger than the oil shocks of the 1970s. What changed?

Well, on Friday Trump called for UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER, suggesting both intransigence and a tenuous grip on reality. Then the Iranians chose Khamenei’s son, reputedly a hard-liner, as the new Supreme Leader. These developments may have dashed the hopes of oil traders who still thought we might have cosplay regime change, Venezuela-style: The regime basically continues, but a new leader makes conciliatory noises and throws a bunch of money Trump’s way. That could still happen, but not for a while.

Time matters here. As the Strait remains closed, producers are shutting down, and this isn’t like turning off a tap that can be quickly restarted. There’s apparently a real nonlinearity here: a 2-week closure of the Strait has much more than twice the adverse impact on global oil supply as a 1-week closure. If this goes on for multiple weeks — and it’s easy to imagine that happening — oil prices, which retreated slightly off their highs early this morning, could go much higher.

Even so, premature to predict a global economic crisis. Prices now are roughly at Russia shock levels:

A graph with blue lines and white text

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

That shock was ugly but didn’t cause recessions in either the US or Europe. As I emphasized in the primer, advanced economies are much less vulnerable to oil shocks than they were in the 1970s.

But the situation is scary. And what’s even scarier is that the “warrior ethos” gang in the Trump administration seem to have been caught completely off-guard by the fallout from their adventure, even though the military and the intelligence community tried to warn them about the risks.

MUSICAL CODA

Monday 9 March 1662/63

Up betimes, to my office, where all the morning. About noon Sir J. Robinson, Lord Mayor, desiring way through the garden from the Tower, called in at the office and there invited me (and Sir W. Pen, who happened to be in the way) to dinner, which we did; and there had a great Lent dinner of fish, little flesh. And thence he and I in his coach, against my will (for I am resolved to shun too great fellowship with him) to White Hall, but came too late, the Duke having been with our fellow officers before we came, for which I was sorry. Thence he and I to walk one turn in the Park, and so home by coach, and I to my office, where late, and so home to supper and bed.

There dined with us to-day Mr. Slingsby, of the Mint, who showed us all the new pieces both gold and silver (examples of them all), that are made for the King, by Blondeau’s way; and compared them with those made for Oliver. The pictures of the latter made by Symons, and of the King by one Rotyr, a German, I think, that dined with us also. He extolls those of Rotyr’s above the others; and, indeed, I think they are the better, because the sweeter of the two; but, upon my word, those of the Protector are more like in my mind, than the King’s, but both very well worth seeing. The crowns of Cromwell are now sold, it seems, for 25s. and 30s. apiece.

Read the annotations

American Conversations: Representative Maxwell Frost

March 8, 2026

Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump was among the dignitaries who attended the dignified transfer returning the remains of the six U.S. soldiers killed in the military action against Iran to the United States for burial. At the transfer, Trump wore a white USA baseball cap for sale in his campaign store.

Recognizing that Americans would recoil from seeing Trump wear a baseball cap at a dignified transfer, the Fox News Channel declined to show how he had looked yesterday and aired old footage of Trump from his first term without the hat. Caught in their lie, the Fox News Channel admitted they had shown the wrong footage but claimed it was inadvertent. They did not, however, show the real footage from yesterday, showing Trump wearing his merch.

The producers at the Fox News Channel seemed to recognize that Trump’s USA hat at a dignified transfer looked like deliberate disrespect for those whose lives had been taken in the service of our country. They seemed to understand the gulf between the administration’s cartoonish approach to the war in Iran and the reality of war for those participating in it.

The official social media account of the White House has portrayed its military adventures in Iran as a movie, or a game, splicing images from what appear to be footage of U.S. military strikes with clips from adventure movies and video games like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto. Undeterred by criticism, White House communications director Steven Cheung called for supporters to show their enthusiasm for one of the videos in comments below it.

Last Thursday, March 5, Trump talked to ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl about the war. “I hope you are impressed,” he said. “How do you like the performance? I mean, Venezuela is obvious. This might be even better. How do you like the performance?” Karl answered that “nobody questions the success of the military operation, the concern is what happens next.”

“Forget about next,” Trump answered. “They are decimated for a 10-year period before they could build it back.”

“We’re marching through the world,” Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) told a laughing Maria Bartiromo of the Fox News Channel this morning. “We’re cleaning out the bad guys. We’re gonna have relationships with new people that will make us prosperous and safe. I have never seen anybody like it. This is Ronald Reagan Plus. Donald Trump is resetting the world in a way nobody could have dreamed of a year ago. He is the greatest commander in chief of all time. Our military is the best of all time. Iran is going down, and Cuba is next.”

The administration’s approach to foreign affairs appears to be the logical outcome of two generations of a peculiar U.S. cowboy individualism. Since the 1950s, right-wing ideologues in the United States have embraced a fantasy world in which a hero cuts through the red tape of laws and government bureaucracy to do what he thinks is right. That image was fed by TV westerns that rose after the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision to portray a world in which dominant white men delivered justice to their communities without the interference of government. By 1959, there were twenty-six westerns on TV. In one week in March 1959, eight of the top ten TV shows were westerns.

The idea of white men acting for freedom and justice on their own, unhampered by a government that served Black Americans, people of color, and women, became a guiding image for the rising right wing beginning with Arizona senator Barry Goldwater in 1964. It found a home in the Republican Party with Ronald Reagan in 1980, as supporters took a stand against a federal government they insisted was redistributing the tax dollars of hardworking Americans to undeserving minorities and women.

That cowboy individualism spread into foreign affairs as well, until by 2003, right-wing talk radio host Rush Limbaugh could use it as shorthand to defend President George W. Bush’s military operation in Iraq. Just after the 2003 capture of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Limbaugh gushed about presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, who had ignored the rules imposed by “liberals” and fixed what was wrong with the world. Limbaugh explained that Reagan was a cowboy: “He was brave, positive, and gave us hope. He wore a white hat…. Liberals hated Ronald Reagan.”

Limbaugh continued: “They also hate President Bush because he distinguishes between good and evil. He calls a spade a spade, and after 9-11 called evil ‘evil,’ without mincing any words, to the shock of the liberal establishment. That’s what cowboys do, you know…. In the old West, might did not make right. Right made might. Cowboys in white hats were always on the side of right, and that was their might. I am glad my President is a cowboy. He got his man! Cowboys do, you know.”

In Breaking the News today, James Fallows wrote that that way back in 2015, he concluded that “it had become far too easy for political leaders to strut and posture about ‘honoring the troops’—the Hegseth term ‘warfighters’ was not yet in common use—but then to commit them in half-thought-through “forever” wars, since so much of the public was so insulated from the consequences.”

But if Trump’s Iran adventure began with the strutting and posturing of a military performance, it is running hard into reality. It appears that Trump saw the strikes themselves as the culmination of his performance and did not have a plan for what would happen after them. He has said he was surprised that the conflict has included neighboring states.

Now the ships that carry about 20% of the world’s oil are not traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices are surging. Rising oil prices are already hitting Americans at the gas pump—gasoline prices rose 14% last week—and will also hit the economy in general as jet fuel and diesel for trucks and tractors become more expensive. Trump tonight posted that high oil prices are “a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY.”

The public support for the financing of this war is different from that of past adventures. While President George W. Bush could borrow to pay the cost of Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003, 2026 is a different story. The national debt has ballooned in the two decades since the Iraq war, and Republicans last summer justified their dramatic cuts to government programs, including healthcare and supplemental nutrition assistance, by insisting that it must be addressed. Now Trump is spending an estimated $1 billion a day on Operation Epic Fury, highlighting that while there was no money for programs that helped the American people, there appears to be plenty for a war of choice in the Middle East.

Since the 1980s, Republican presidents have been able to sell their military adventures with the argument that, like cowboys, they were cutting through bureaucracy and laws in order to do what was right. As Limbaugh described it, they were never looking for trouble, but when trouble came they faced it with courage. They were always on the side of right, defending good people against bad people. They had high morals and spoke the truth. They were “a beacon of integrity in the wild, wild West.”

The fantasy of those who embraced cowboy individualism was that if only they could have full sway, they would solve the world’s problems and keep Americans safe. But the conduct of the war is starting to illustrate that any claims of a moral code disappear when a leader exercises military might on a whim. According to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the U.S. will not be bound by any “stupid rules of engagement” and will rain down “[d]eath and destruction from the sky all day long. This was never meant to be a fair fight,” he said, “and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them when they’re down, which is exactly how it should be.”

On Wednesday, March 4, a U.S. submarine torpedoed an Iranian warship in international waters. The vessel was not participating in hostilities; it was off Sri Lanka returning from a naval exercise organized by India in the Bay of Bengal. In the past, the U.S. has participated in those exercises.

Andrew Roth, Cate Brown, and Hannah Ellis-Peterson of The Guardian noted that submarine attacks since World War II have been incredibly rare, as are attacks on vessels not taking part in hostilities. The ship was believed to have 180 people on board; Sri Lankan officials said they rescued 32 and recovered 87 bodies from the water. Hegseth boasted: “An American submarine sank an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters.”

On Thursday, Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali of Reuters reported that the U.S. appears to bear responsibility for the February 28 strike on a girls’ school in Minab, in southern Iran, in the early waves of the Israeli-U.S. attack. The strike appears to have killed 168 people or more, many of them children. Since the Reuters report, others have noted that the U.S. was operating in the area and Israel was not. The strike remains under investigation.

After Saturday’s dignified transfer, Trump told reporters on Air Force One. “I hate to do it, but it’s a part of war,” he said. “It’s a sad part of war.”

“It’s the bad part of war.”

Notes:

https://apnews.com/article/dignified-transfer-trump-iran-american-soldiers-killed-c6ca32cc5deaf90e1a5c1805dbde807b

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5773009-jake-tapper-donald-trump-iran-war-rhetoric/

“Westerns,” Time, March 30, 1959, p. 52.

Rush Limbaugh, “This Cowboy,” RushOnline.com.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-investigation-points-likely-us-responsibility-iran-school-strike-sources-say-2026-03-06/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-iran-war-bombing-girls-school-assessment/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/04/us-submarine-torpedo-iran-warship-sri-lanka-coast-pete-hegseth

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/08/pete-hegseth-pentagon-trump-iran

Breaking the News
The Arrogance of Ignorance.
This week I realized that over the past 45 years I’d been preparing for the news of the past nine days. I’ll list the reporting steps I’ve taken, because they set up the questions and reactions I have now…
Read more

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-iran-war-us-israel-attack-11606079

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/business/gasoline-prices.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/03/07/trump-dover-dignified-transfer-soldiers-iran/

Bluesky:

ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3mgkkvbwmg22i

atrupar.com/post/3mgkp7zvukc2g

mattgertz.bsky.social/post/3mgiukafxzc2x

atrupar.com/post/3mgkljfxigl2r

elivalley.bsky.social/post/3mgdrqsz7ls2i

ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3mglhhz4zfk2q

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Your Data Is Made Powerful By Context (so stop destroying it already)

After twenty years of devops, most software engineers still treat observability like a fire alarm — something you check when things are already on fire.

Not a feedback loop you use to validate every change after shipping. Not the essential, irreplaceable source of truth on product quality and user experience.

This is not primarily a culture problem, or even a tooling problem. It’s a data problem. The dominant model for telemetry collection stores each type of signal in a different “pillar”, which rips the fabric of relationships apart — irreparably.

Your observability data is self-destructing at write time

The three pillars model works fine for infrastructure1, but it is catastrophic for software engineering use cases, and will not serve for agentic validation.

But why? It’s a flywheel of compounding factors, not just one thing, but the biggest one by far is this:

✨Data is made powerful by context✨

The more context you collect, the more powerful it becomes

Your data does not become linearly more powerful as you widen the dataset, it becomes exponentially more powerful. Or if you really want to get technical, it becomes combinatorially more powerful as you add more context.

I made a little Netlify app here where you can enter how many attributes you store per log or trace, to see how powerful your dataset is.

  • 4 fields? 6 pairwise combos, 15 possible combinations.

  • 8 fields? 28 pairwise combos, 255 possible combinations.

  • 50 fields? 1.2K pairwise combos, 1.1 quadrillion (2^250) possible combinations, as seen in the screenshot below.

When you add another attribute to your structured log events, it doesn’t just give you “one more thing to query”. It gives you new combinations with every other field that already exists.

The wider your data is, the more valuable the data becomes. Click on the image to go futz around with the sliders yourself.

Note that this math is exclusively concerned with attribute keys. Once you account for values, the precision of your tooling goes higher still, especially if you handle high cardinality data.

Data is made valuable by relationships

“Data is made valuable by context” is another way of saying that the relationships between attributes are the most important part of any data set.

This should be intuitively obvious to anyone who uses data. How valuable is the string “Mike Smith”, or “21 years old”? Stripped of context, they hold no value.

By spinning your telemetry out into siloes based on signal type, the three pillars model ends up destroying the most valuable part of your data: its relational seams.

AI-SRE agents don’t seem to like three pillars data

I posted something on LinkedIn yesterday, and got a pile of interesting comments. One came from Kyle Forster, founder of an AI-SRE startup called RunWhen, who linked to an article he wrote called “Do Humans Still Read Logs?”

Humpty Dumpty traced every span, Humpty Dumpty had a great plan.

In his article, he noted that <30% of their AI SRE tools were to “traditional observability data”, i.e. metrics, logs and traces. Instead, they used the instrumentation generated by other AI tools to wrap calls and queries. His takeaway:

Good AI reasoning turns out to require far less observability data than most of us thought when it has other options.

My takeaway is slightly different. After all, the agent still needed instrumentation and telemetry in order to evaluate what was happening. That’s still observability, right?

But as Kyle tells it, the agents went searching for a richer signal than the three pillars were giving them. They went back to the source to get the raw, pre-digested telemetry with all its connective tissue intact. That’s how important it was to them.

Huh.

You can’t put Humpty back together again

I’ve been hearing a lot of “AI solves this”, and “now that we have MCPs, AI can do joins seamlessly across the three pillars”, and “this is a solved problem”.

Mmm. Joins across data siloes can be better than nothing, yes. But they don’t restore the relational seams. They don’t get you back to the mathy good place where every additional attribute makes every other attribute exponentially more valuable. At agentic speed, that reconstruction becomes a bottleneck and a failure surface.

Humpty Dumpty stored all the state, Humpty Dumpty forgot to replicate.

Our entire industry is trying to collectively work out the future of agentic development right now. The hardest and most interesting problems (I think) are around validation. How do we validate a change rate that is 10x, 100x, 1000x greater than before?

I don’t have all the answers, but I do know this: agents are going to need production observability with speed, flexibility, TONS of context, and some kind of ontological grounding via semantic conventions.

In short: agents are going to need precision tools. And context (and cardinality) are what feed precision.

Production is a very noisy place

Production is a noisy, rowdy place of chaos, particularly at scale. If you are trying to do anomaly detection with no a priori knowledge of what to look for, the anomaly has to be fairly large to be detected. (Or else you’re detecting hundreds of “anomalies” all the time.)

But if you do have some knowledge of intent, along with precision tooling, these anomalies can be tracked and validated even when they are exquisitely minute. Like even just a trickle of requests2 out of tens of millions per second.

Let’s say you work for a global credit card provider. You’re rolling out a code change to partner payments, which are “only” tens of thousands of requests per second — a fraction of your total request volume of tens of millions of req/sec, but an important one.

This is a scary change, no matter how many tests you ran in staging. To test this safely in production, you decide to start by rolling the new build out to a small group of employee test users, and oh, what the hell — you make another feature flag that lets any user opt in, and flip it on for your own account.

You wait a few days. You use your card a few times. It works (thank god).

On Monday morning you pull up your observability data and select all requests containing the new build_id or commit hash, as well as all of the feature flags involved. You break down by endpoint, then start looking at latency, errors, and distribution of request codes for these requests, comparing them to the baseline.

Hm — something doesn’t seem quite right. Your test requests aren’t timing out, but they are taking longer to complete than the baseline set. Not for all requests, but for some.

Further exploration lets you isolate the affected requests to a set with a particular query hash. Oops.. how’d that n+1 query slip in undetected??

You quickly submit a fix, ship a new build_id, and roll your change out to a larger group: this time, it’s going out to 1% of all users in a particular region.

The anomalous requests may have been only a few dozen per day, spread across many hours, in a system that served literally billions of requests in that time.

Humpty Dumpty: assembled, redeployed, A patchwork of features half-built, half-destroyed. "It's not what we planned," said the architect, grim. "But the monster is live — and the monster is him."

Precision tooling makes them findable. Imprecise tooling makes them unfindable.

How do you expect your agents to validate each change, if the consequences of each change cannot be found?3

Well, one might ask, how have we managed so far? The answer is: by using human intuition to bridge the gaps. This will not work for agents. Our wisdom must be encoded into the system, or it does not exist. As @odysseusz0z said recently: “The work is making your judgment machine-readable.”

Agents need speed, flexibility, context, and precision to validate in prod

In the past, excruciatingly precise staged rollouts like these have been mostly the province of your Googles and Facebooks. Progressive deployments have historically required a lot of tooling and engineering resources.

Agentic workflows are going to make these automated validation techniques much easier and more widely used; at the exact same time, agents developing to spec are going to require a dramatically higher degree of precision and automated validation in production.

It is not just the width of your data that matters when it comes to getting great results from AI. There’s a lot more involved in optimizing data for reasoning, attribution, or anomaly detection. But capturing and preserving relationships is at the heart of all of it.

In this situation, as in so many others, AI is both the sickness and the cure4. Better get used to it.

1

Infrastructure teams use the three pillars for one extremely good reason: they have to operate a lot of code they did not write and can not change. They have to slurp up whatever metrics or logs the components emit and store them somewhere.

2

Yes, there are some complications here that I am glossing past, ones that start with ‘s’ and rhyme with “ampling”. However, the rich data + sampling approach to the cost-usability balance is generally satisfied by dropping the least valuable data. The three pillars approach to the cost-usability problem is generally satisfied by dropping the MOST valuable data: cardinality and context.

3

The needle-in-a-haystack is one visceral illustration of the value of rich context and precision tooling, but there are many others. Another example: wouldn’t it be nice if your agentic task force could check up on any diffs that involve cache key or schema changes, say, once a day for the next 6-12 months? These changes famously take a long time to manifest, by which time everyone has forgotten that they happened.

4

One sentence I have gotten a ton of mileage out of lately: “AI, much like alcohol, is both the cause of and solution to all of life’s problems.”

SpaceX launches direct television satellite for EchoStar

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to begin the EchoStar-25 mission on March 9, 2026. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Update March 10, 1:21 a.m. EDT (0531 UTC): SpaceX confirms deployment of the EchoStar-25 satellite.

A direct television satellite for Dish Network, a subsidiary of EchoStar, headed into geostationary Earth orbit on Monday night aboard a Falcon 9 rocket launched from Cape Canaveral.

The satellite, EchoStar 25, flew to a geosynchronous transfer orbit before maneuvering to its operation position at 110 degrees West above the equator.

Liftoff of the 70-meter-tall launch vehicle from Space Launch Complex 40 happened at 12:19 a.m. EDT (0419 UTC). The rocket flew due east upon leaving Florida’s Space Coast.

The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 90 percent chance for favorable weather during the launch window, citing a small chance for interference from cumulus clouds.

SpaceX launched the mission with Falcon 9 first stage B1085. This was its 14th flight after previously flying missions, including NASA’s Crew-9, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost Mission 1, and Fram2.

A little more than 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1085 landed on the drone ship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas,’ positioned in the Atlantic Ocean. This was the 146th touchdown on this vessel and the 583rd booster landing to date for SpaceX.

The EchoStar 25 satellite deployed from the second stage of the Falcon 9 rocket nearly 33 minutes after liftoff.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to begin the EchoStar-25 mission on March 9, 2026. Image: Michael Cain/Spaceflight Now

On March 20, 2023, EchoStar entered into a contract with Lanteris Space LLC (formerly Maxar Space Systems, now a subsidiary of Intuitive Machines) to build the EchoStar 25 satellite. A launch contract with SpaceX was established in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The satellite is built on Lanteris’ 1300 Series satellite bus, the basis for spacecraft, like NASA’s Psyche probe and Sirius XM’s SXM-10. Dish will use it as a direct broadcast satellite.

EchoStar-25 will operate in the 12.2-12.7 GHz for space-to-Earth communications and 17.3-17.8 GHz for Earth-to-space, according to a filing with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).

This will be the most recent EchoStar satellite to be operated by its subsidiary, Dish, since EchoStar 23, which launched in March 2017. In May 2025, the company ordered the construction of EchoStar-26 from Lanteris, which is expected to launch in 2028.

In September 2025, EchoStar announced it was selling spectrum licenses to SpaceX that it had planned to use for its own direct to mobile service. The $17 billion sale, split evenly between cash and SpaceX stock is awaiting regulatory approval.

“We are disappointed that we were not able to continue with something we built over 17 years,” EchoStar’s CEO Charles Ergen said. “I think that we are also pleased that we have made our bet, and that is with SpaceX and Starlink

The sale will help advance SpaceX’s Direct to Cell Starlink service, recently rebranded to Starlink Mobile.

“We see them as the most viable company to do that, and with their tremendous technology and launch capabilities, they are well-positioned to certainly be a leader in that. And as we publicly discussed, we already have an agreement with them to provide that to our customers,” Ergen said.

MacBook Neo Wallpapers Now Available for All Macs in MacOS Tahoe 26.4 Beta

Juli Clover, MacRumors:

Featuring bubble-style lines with colorful gradients, the wallpapers come in Mac Purple, Mac Blue, Mac Pink, and Mac Yellow. The design and the colors spell out the word “Mac.”

They got me. I’m upgrading to Tahoe now.

 ★ 

Links 3/9/26

Links for you. Science:

Why Some People Thrive on Four Hours of Sleep
Maryland faces another spate of viral infections. This time it’s mumps.
A familiar move with a new twist: Trump tries to cut CDC funds he just signed into law
Troubleshooting common errors in assemblies of long-read metagenomes
Scientists Found a Massive Lava Tube Hiding Beneath the Surface of Venus
One vaccine may provide broad protection against many respiratory infections and allergens (very good summary of the approach)

Other:

The record-breaking cocaine boom — and its deadly fallout
Some local police, sheriff and DA offices are communicating often with ICE, records show
ICE agents often ignore safety and privacy practices for detainee patients, Tacoma nurses say
Alaska lawmaker’s chief of staff arrested on sex trafficking and child exploitation charges
Trump Betrayed the MAHA Movement This Week. RFK Jr.’s Reaction Was Telling.
How Epstein and Maxwell used an elite Midwest arts school to prey on girls
MAGA’s weird, horny obsession with Alysa Liu. The far-right can only see a young woman as “goonbait” (they’re such losers)
Interview with Andrea Pitzer about concentration camps
Yeah, so… Substack, I’m out. The Polymarket partnership is the last straw.
I DON’T BELONG TO AN ORGANIZED RESISTANCE — I’M A DEMOCRAT
U.K.-based Caffè Nero wins auction to buy Compass Coffee
Judge forced to slash SF jury pool over hate for Elon Musk
Army warrant officers will ‘bid’ against each other for their next bonus (utterly fucked up policy)
Pennsylvania high school students violently attacked by police during anti-ICE walkout
‘Andor’ Creator Tony Gilroy Gives the Interview He Couldn’t During Its Release. While promoting his cautionary tale about fascism, Disney asked Gilroy to refrain from using the word. Nine months after it aired its finale, the ‘Star Wars’ series feels scarily prescient.
MAGA Senator Appears Not to Have Read the SAVE Act
I Verified My LinkedIn Identity. Here’s What I Actually Handed Over.
Wikipedia blacklists Archive.today, starts removing 695,000 archive links
The Unstoppable Alysa Liu: Watching a young woman be free was the joy I didn’t know I needed
MAGA’s Reaction to the Epstein Files Reveals Total Moral Collapse
Majority of Americans think Trump’s deportation campaign is going too far
Trump’s Attack on the Supreme Court Was Unhinged Even for Him
You Might Be Seeing A MAHA-Coded Doctor And Not Even Know It
On a new banner, Trump evokes the shadow world of authoritarian icons
The Primary Win That Stunned Democrats Everywhere
NFL Pro Bowler Tre’ Johnson, dead at 54, found a new calling as a teacher. He was a bruising offensive lineman, playing in Washington for eight seasons, before becoming a teacher and coach at the Landon School in Maryland.
What’s Next for US Healthcare? Ask Oklahoma.
There’s A Very Freaky Explanation For ICE’s Uncomfortable Interactions With Women
My child’s circus school is bracing for ICE. This is the toll of authoritarianism.
People Who Left ‘MAGA Christianity’ Share What It Really Took To Step Away

Recent recordings of “big symphonies”

The Marek Janowski box of Bruckner symphonies I find to be the best Bruckner overall.  And yes I do know many other versions, even Hermann Abendroth, though I cannot hold a candle to one MR reader I met recently who may know seventy or more versions of Bruckner’s 8th.

Vladimir Jurowski has recorded Maher 1, 2, 4, 8, and with 9 on the way and I read somewhere he will be doing the entire cycle.  I expect these will end up as my set of choice.

Both are worthy of your notice, and they put to rest the myth that all the best conductors and orchestras operated in the now somewhat distant past.

On a related note, I flew to Pittsburgh recently to hear Honeck conduct Bruckner’s 8th (it is there I met the MR reader).  I was amazed how good the overall performance was, and arguably Pittsburgh is now one of the two or three best orchestras in this country, at least for their favored repertoire.  Go hear them if you can, Bruckner being their specialty.

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Ludicrous but interesting

Paul Ford posted about a timeline site he’s started making after years of pondering the idea and tinkering with it.

I don’t know Paul but over the years I’ve got the sense we are similar in a few ways. And this only reinforces that sense because I also spent years pondering a website for making timelines. Maybe plenty of us have.

In fact one of the very first websites I started when I first got online in 1995 was a site collecting the dates of events in the development of “all this digital stuff,” as I came across them. It didn’t get very far.

But I think my more recent pondering started just over ten years later when I did some work for the BBC on a project called Eyewitness, creating a prototype website on which people would be able to contribute memories of a specific day. This sounds a little reckless for an organisation as cautious as the BBC is these days but back then, in the midst of Web 2.0, no project brainstorm was complete without a post-it with “UGC” scrawled on it (user-generated content).

The prototype site also included a load of events that I scraped from BBC News and Wikipedia, and I’d also spent some time looking at what was then available in terms of making and displaying timelines.

The project didn’t go any further but I kept thinking about a website for creating timelines. It was the kind of project that I’d think about while trying to get to sleep at night: how it could work, what the problems might be, etc. I envisaged a site on which people could create and share events and timelines, and combine them to create new ones, displaying them in a variety of formats

I didn’t get as far into the details as Paul has but even the easiest-to-identify problems were interesting.

One thing I really wanted to solve was how to deal with different zoom levels. Imagine a timeline of World War II, and you begin by looking at the whole thing from 1939 to 1945. Whatever the display looks like graphically there would only be space to see the most important events.

But you should be able to zoom in, and in, and in, until (assuming enough events have been added) you’re looking at minute-by-minute details of a single day.

Think of it like zooming into a map – if you’re zoomed way out you’ll only see the land/sea, the boundaries of countries, maybe capital cities. As you zoom in you’ll see gradually more features: towns, roads, built-up areas, individual buildings, bus stops… This suggested that every event should have a measure of importance, so we could tell at which zoom level it should be displayed.

So all I would need to do would be to rate every event in history with a number indicating its objective importance.

You can see why I never got round to making anything.

But I was still intrigued, and thought someone must have looked into this kind of thing: a numerical rating of the importance of events. Say from a rating of 1 for the beating of a butterfly’s wing up to 100 for the birth and death of the universe, and everything in between.

Ludicrous but interesting. Who could even judge? From who’s (or what’s) perspective would importance be measured?

As a side project, I then thought about a newspaper whose hierarchy of daily stories would be based solely on this measure of global (universal?) importance.

Obviously, none of this happened. At some point I realised I’d stopped thinking about the idea without having made anything. It all seemed a bit complicated and I didn’t really want to run a site that involved lots of data entry/updating on my part, or with lots of users. Making websites is interesting but running them is often less so.

Anyway, one difference between me and Paul is that he actually made something with this idea.


Read comments or post one

Monday assorted links

1. What people get wrong about women’s rights (Alice Evans, The Economist).

2. The case against liberal interventionism.

3. More government by GPT (NYT).

4. “In 2013, museum management considered introducing a scheme to suction dust off tourists as they walked down the corridor leading to the Sistine Chapel while blasting them with cold air to reduce their body temperature and perspiration. The plan was aborted, presumably for logistical reasons.” (FT)

5. The ongoing migration of Kiwis.

6. Roger Garrison, RIP.  And an obituary.

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Evaluating Local Community Trends For The Safest Neighborhoods Atlanta

Atlanta has experienced a massive surge in population over the last decade as people move for jobs and culture. This growth brings vibrant energy and new economic opportunities to the metropolitan area every single day. Residents appreciate the urban diversity.

However, rapid expansion also creates challenges for local governments trying to maintain a secure environment for all citizens. People are becoming much more selective about where they choose to purchase homes and raise their young families. Security is a primary concern.

Finding a place that offers peace of mind requires a deep dive into the specific trends of each district. You must look at the data to identify the safest neighborhoods Atlanta has to offer today. Choosing the right area ensures your future stability.

Analyzing Crime Statistics And Data

Public safety experts rely on comprehensive data sets to understand the patterns of criminal activity across the different zones of the city. These statistics are gathered by local law enforcement and shared through public databases for transparency. Accuracy in reporting is essential for any clear analysis.

Analysts look at both property crimes and violent incidents to create a balanced view of the risks in each specific zip code. A high rate of theft might be a concern, but it differs significantly from the impact of personal harm. Distinguishing these types of data is vital.

Ranking systems help potential residents compare different areas based on the frequency of these events over a set period. This objective look at the numbers removes the guesswork from the decision making process. Data provides the foundation for a very secure and informed home search.

The Impact Of Community Engagement

The safety of a residential area is often determined by the level of connection and communication between the people who live there. Active neighborhood watch programs create a visible deterrent for anyone looking to engage in illegal activity during the day. Neighbors look out for each other.

Local organizations and homeowner associations also play a major role by hosting meetings and sharing updates about the safety of the streets. This collective vigilance creates a strong social bond that discourages crime and improves the quality of life. Community engagement is a very powerful tool.

When people feel connected to their surroundings, they are much more likely to report suspicious behavior to the authorities immediately. This proactive culture builds a sense of psychological safety that is just as important as the actual crime rates. Shared responsibility makes every street much safer for everyone.

Infrastructure And Public Lighting

Physical environment and urban design have a direct impact on the frequency of accidents and criminal behavior in a growing metropolitan area. Well maintained streets and clear sidewalks encourage people to walk and engage with their neighborhood during the evening hours. Modern infrastructure supports a much healthier and more secure lifestyle.

Public lighting is one of the most effective ways to deter crime and improve visibility for drivers and pedestrians alike. Brightly lit pathways reduce the number of dark corners where illicit activities might occur without being noticed by the neighbors. Lighting is a simple but essential part of urban safety planning.

Cities that invest in these basic services often see a decrease in both crime and traffic related incidents over the long term. Clean and bright spaces signal to the public that the area is being cared for and monitored by the local government. Good design is a foundation for safety.

Proximity To Public Services

The speed at which emergency responders can arrive at a scene is a major factor in the overall safety rating of a community. Neighborhoods located near fire stations and police precincts often enjoy faster response times during a crisis or a medical emergency. This proximity provides a significant layer of security for families.

Insurance companies also look at the distance to these services when calculating the risk and the cost of a policy for a home. Areas with better access to public safety resources are viewed as more stable and less vulnerable to catastrophic losses. This factor impacts your financial and personal well being.

Living near a hospital or a local precinct ensures that help is always just a few minutes away when it is needed most. This physical presence of authority and medical care discourages crime and provides peace of mind for everyone. Access to services is a key indicator of a safe district.

Making Informed Living Decisions

Finding the right home requires a balance between the aesthetic appeal of a house and the security of the surrounding environment. Using public data and community reports helps you narrow down your search to the areas that best fit your specific needs. Research is the most important part of the process.

Visiting a neighborhood at different times of the day and night allows you to see the traffic patterns and the lighting firsthand. Speaking with current residents provides a human perspective on the safety and the culture of the streets. Taking these extra steps ensures you are making a very wise choice.

Ultimately, the goal is to find a sanctuary where your family can grow and thrive with total confidence and peace of mind. Following the data will lead you to the safest neighborhoods Atlanta offers today. Making an informed decision is the best way to protect your long term happiness and security.

Photo: DC Studio via their website.


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Valid Reasons for Postponing or Rescheduling Court Duty

The jury system plays a fundamental role in maintaining a fair and balanced judiciary for every citizen in the community today. It ensures that legal disputes and criminal trials are decided by a group of peers rather than a single government official or judge. This shared responsibility is a cornerstone of the democratic process and the protection of individual rights.

While the duty is important, most people recognize that the timing of a summons is not always ideal for every busy individual. A sudden call to serve can clash with major life events or critical work projects that require your immediate and undivided attention. It is a common source of stress for those trying to balance their daily lives with their civic obligations.

Understanding the difference between a permanent excusal and a temporary deferral is the first step toward managing your summons effectively and professionally. Most courts are willing to work with citizens to find a date that does not cause an undue burden on their household or career. Many people look for information on how to get out of jury duty before they realize that a simple postponement is often the best solution.

Documenting Financial and Economic Hardship

Presenting evidence that jury service would cause a significant monetary loss is a valid path for seeking a financial hardship excusal. For many self employed individuals or small business owners, missing a week of work can lead to a total loss of income for the month. Courts generally understand that the small daily stipend provided for service cannot replace a professional salary.

Documenting this hardship requires a clear and honest explanation of your financial situation and the specific impact of your absence from the job. You may be asked to provide tax returns or a letter from your employer stating that they do not offer paid leave for court service. This transparency helps the jury commissioner make an informed and fair decision about your ability to serve.

If the court finds that your service would lead to a financial disaster, they may grant an excusal to protect your long term stability. It is important to remember that this process is designed to ensure that the jury pool is made up of people who can focus on the case. Protecting your livelihood is a priority for both you and the judicial system.

Medical Considerations and Physical Limitations

The process for providing healthcare verification is essential for those who have physical or mental constraints that prevent them from serving. Chronic pain or a serious illness can make sitting in a courtroom for several hours a day a very difficult and painful task. The law provides specific protections for individuals who are not physically able to perform the required duties.

A signed letter from a licensed physician is usually required to document the specific nature of the medical issue and its expected duration. This information is kept confidential and is only used to determine if the person should be excused from the current jury pool. Accuracy in these medical reports ensures that the court respects the health and the safety of all.

Mental health considerations like severe anxiety or cognitive impairments are also taken seriously by the court when evaluating an excusal request. Providing a professional perspective allows the judge to understand why a specific environment might be harmful or impossible for the individual to navigate. Health is a fundamental factor in the ability to serve effectively as a juror.

Educational and Professional Conflicts

Options for students and essential workers to reschedule their service dates are often available to ensure that critical duties are not ignored. A college student who is summoned during a final exam period can usually request a deferral to a time when school is not in session. This flexibility allows for the completion of important educational milestones without any legal stress.

Essential workers like doctors or active duty military members may also face significant professional conflicts that require their immediate presence elsewhere in the community. These individuals can provide documentation of their schedule and their unique role to justify a temporary postponement of their service. The goal is to minimize the disruption to vital public services while still fulfilling the civic duty.

Most courts allow for a one time deferral to a specific date that is more convenient for the individual and their employer or school. This cooperative approach helps to maintain a high level of participation without causing unnecessary harm to the person’s professional growth or academic success. Planning ahead is the key to a smooth and professional interaction with the court.

Maintaining Compliance with the Court

Summary of the proper channels for communicating with the jury commissioner emphasizes the importance of following the established rules for the local area. Ignoring a summons is never a valid strategy and can lead to significant legal trouble including fines and a potential warrant for your arrest. Communication is the only way to resolve a conflict safely.

Most summons include a specific deadline for requesting a postponement or an excusal that must be followed exactly by the citizen. You should use the official website or the provided form to state your reasons clearly and attach any required documentation for the file. Staying proactive ensures that your request is processed before the first day of the scheduled trial.

Final thoughts on jury duty focus on the need for a respectful and a professional approach to this fundamental civic obligation for everyone. By understanding the rules and being honest about your situation, you can navigate the process with confidence and peace of mind. Compliance with the law is the foundation of a stable and a healthy community for all.

Photo: Freepik via their website.


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Iran/Venezuela facts of the day

Iran was once one of the key oil suppliers to the world. No longer. Its exports, constrained by sanctions, amount to less than 2 per cent of global supplies, most of which go to China at discounted prices.

A similar change has taken place in Venezuela. Once a star of world oil and one of the founding members of Opec, today it can hardly even be called a petrostate. It produces less oil than the US state of North Dakota and a quarter as much as neighbouring Brazil.

Here is more from Daniel Yergin at the FT.

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Voyager Technologies invests in Max Space

Voyager/Max Space lander

Voyager Technologies is investing in Max Space to help accelerate a partnership between the two companies on developing lunar habitats.

The post Voyager Technologies invests in Max Space appeared first on SpaceNews.

First Starship V3 launch slips

Starship Ship 39

SpaceX is pushing back the first launch of the latest version of Starship even as NASA is asking it to accelerate work on a lunar lander version of the vehicle.

The post First Starship V3 launch slips appeared first on SpaceNews.

Chinese official calls for prioritizing Neptune orbiter mission

A senior Chinese space scientist and delegate to the country’s national congress is proposing the prioritization of an unprecedented orbiter mission to ice giant Neptune.

The post Chinese official calls for prioritizing Neptune orbiter mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

The Iran war puts Asia in an energy panic

Stranded Gulf supplies are choking off the region’s economies

GNSS resilience is an economic and security priority

Modern society has become profoundly reliant on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). These systems support aviation safety, emergency services, finance, communications, energy networks and an expanding array of autonomous and industrial systems. Yet despite this reliance, GNSS remains inherently fragile: low‑power signals transmitted from medium Earth orbit are surprisingly easy to degrade, and the consequences […]

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Kidney exchange developments in India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Germany

 Here are recent reports on kidney exchange from  India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Germany.

 Atul Agnihotri: SOMETHING REMARKABLE IS HAPPENING IN KIDNEY TRANSPLANTATION IN INDIA.

"Through collaboration with 63 transplant centers, APKD India enabled 130 kidney swap transplants in 2025, quietly becoming ONE OF THE LARGEST KIDNEY SWAP PROGRAMS outside the U.S.

And the momentum continues — January has already kicked off with 22 swap transplants.

A powerful reminder that when hospitals collaborate, more patients receive the gift of life.

"One Nation, One Swap."

https://lnkd.in/gZD6Q-md "

 ##########

Here's an article on the clinical trials of kidney exchange in Brazil, in preparation for a possible change in the transplant law to make it standard practice. 

Doação Renal Pareada (DRP) no Brasil: relato do primeiro caso envolvendo três duplas    Kidney Paired Donation (KPD) in Brazil: first 3-way case report   by Juliana Bastos, Glaucio Silva de Souza, Marcio Luiz de Sousa, Pedro Bastos Guimarães de
Almeida, Thais Freesz, David Jose de Barros
Machado, Elias David-Neto, Gustavo Fernandes Ferreira   https://doi.org/10.1590/2175-8239-JBN-2025-0177pt

 Abstract: Kidney Paired Donation (KPD) is a transformative strategy in living kidney donor transplantation (LDKT), particularly for overcoming immunological barriers that preclude direct donation. In 2021, KPD accounted for one-fifth of adult LDKT and for half of LDKT for sensitized recipients in the United States. In Brazil, with a high prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and over 30,000 patients on transplant waiting lists, the demand for compatible donors far exceeds supply. This article presents a case report of KPD in the Brazilian context, illustrating its feasibility and highlighting challenges and considerations for broader implementation. The case demonstrates KPD’s potential to increase transplant rates, improve outcomes, and reduce dialysis costs. Nevertheless, structural, ethical, and regulatory challenges remain. This report emphasizes the implications of expanding KPD as a sustainable, life-saving strategy in Brazil.

##########

Here's a report from  King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: 

Almeshari, K.A., Broering, D.C., Obeid, D.A., Alali, A.N., Algharabli, A.N., Pana, N.L. and ALI, T.Z., Innovative Strategies in Kidney Paired Donation: Single-Center Experience Achieving the Highest Annual Transplant Volume Globally. Frontiers in Immunology, 17, p.1623684. 

"Methods: We analyzed all kidney transplants performed through our KPD program between January and December 2024. The program aimed to achieve full HLA and ABO compatibility for incompatible pairs, while also incorporating additional strategies: inclusion of compatible pairs to improve HLA matching, acceptance of ABO quasi-compatible matches (e.g., A2 donors to O or B recipients), low-risk HLA-incompatible matching for HLA-incompatible candidates with cPRA >80%, and ABO-incompatible matching for those with cPRA >95%.

Results: A total of 135 patients (121 adults, 14 pediatrics) underwent KPD-facilitated transplantation, including 69 HLA-incompatible (51.1%), 37 ABO-incompatible (27.4%), and 29 compatible (21.5%) pairs. Females comprised 60.7% of the cohort, with a significantly higher proportion in the HLA-incompatible group (p < 0.001). HLA-incompatible recipients were older than others (mean age 42.5 years, p < 0.001). Most transplants (93.3%) occurred through 2- to 5-way closed chains, with the remainder via domino chains (6.7%). 

...

Conclusion: Our single-center experience demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of a high-volume KPD program in overcoming immunologic barriers to kidney transplantation. Strategic inclusion of compatible pairs, ABO quasi-compatible matching, low-risk HLA-incompatible, and ABO-incompatible matchings significantly increased access for difficult-to-match recipients. This model may serve as a replicable framework for other high-capacity transplant centers seeking to expand transplant access and improve outcomes for complex patient populations. "

########

And here's a report on proposed German legislation to (finally) make kidney exchange legal in Germany: 

Biró, P., Budde, K., Burnapp, L., Cseh, Á., Kurschat, C., Manlove, D., & Ockenfels, A. (2026). Germany's Path to a National Kidney Exchange Program: An Assessment of the 2024 Legislative Proposal. Health Policy, 166, 105578. 

"Highlights

The German Federal Parliament plans to amend the Transplantation Act (1997).

The main goal of the reform is to establish a national kidney exchange program.

The draft law follows European best practices in many respects.

However, the law prohibits the participation of compatible donor–recipient pairs, contrary to international evidence.

Germany may join cross-border kidney exchange programs in the future. "

 

Ever behind the sunset

Painting of a bridge’s skeletal structure on a billboard with a colourful sky and greenery in the background.

This hand-painted stop motion animation recalls the textures of a family home demolished to make way for a widened road

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

The eye of the mathematician

Black and white photo of a chalkboard filled with complex mathematical equations and diagrams.

Is mathematical beauty real? Or is it just a subjective, human ‘wow’ that is becoming redundant in an AI age?

- by Rita Ahmadi

Read on Aeon

Academic journals and AI bleg

Given the rapid pace of advancement of AI, how should academic journals adapt to these changes?  One issue might be an excess of submissions, but what other questions should be considered here?  Which reforms should be made?

Your thoughts would be most welcome.

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Country Joe McDonald, RIP

Here is the NYT obituary.

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New look at the stars around the Milky Way's centre

A new view on the heart of our Milky Way is presented in today's Picture of the Week. This stunning snapshot, taken with ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT), reveals the stars and gas surrounding an invisible giant — a supermassive black hole, located some 27 000 light-years away. This is a hugely dynamic environment, with stars and gas clouds hurtling by the black hole at dramatic speeds.

A team of astronomers at the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Germany has detected a new gas cloud, named G2t, orbiting the supermassive black hole. Two gas clouds, G1 and G2, were already known, but their nature and origin were still being debated. In particular, it was unclear whether these clouds were hiding a star inside or consisted purely of gas. However, the discovery of a third gas cloud now helps answer these questions.

The observations were done with the Enhanced Resolution Imager and Spectrograph (ERIS), an instrument on ESO’s VLT that can not only take images like the one in this Picture of the Week, but also spectra. Thanks to this, astronomers were able to measure the 3D orbits of the clouds around the black hole. The clouds move within a very small region at the centre of this wide-field image. It was revealed that G1, G2 and G2t are actually on almost identical orbits, only rotated a bit with respect to each other. This rules out the possibility that each cloud hides a star in their core, as the odds of different stars having almost identical orbits are slim. The similarity of the orbits suggests that the three clouds probably share the same origin, most likely IRS16SW, a pair of massive stars expelling an enormous amount of gas. As IRS16SW moves around the black hole, each cloud of gas is ejected in a slightly different orbit, explaining the small differences in the trajectories of the ‘G-triplet’.

This discovery shows that, despite decades of monitoring our Milky Way centre, new unanswered curiosities still arise. But what could be more exciting than mysteries waiting to be solved?

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Lake Coatepeque

A blue lake rests within a caldera with steep walls. Several volcanoes near the caldera are capped by clouds. The terrain is mostly lush and green, with patches of gray urban areas.
February 10, 2026

Just inland from the Pacific coast of El Salvador, the striking blue waters of Lake Coatepeque fill part of a caldera of the same name. An astronaut aboard the International Space Station took this photo of the lake and surrounding terrain on February 10, 2026, as the station passed over Central America.

The caldera formed during a series of explosive eruptions between 72,000 and 51,000 years ago. After the caldera’s formation, additional eruptions produced several lava domes along its western side, including one that became Isla del Cerro (Isla Teopán). According to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program, there have been no reported eruptions from the caldera during the Holocene (the past 11,700 years). 

Today, homes, restaurants, boathouses, and other structures line the lakeshore. This human footprint extends westward toward the caldera’s steep rim, which abuts the eastern flank of Santa Ana—El Salvador’s tallest volcano. Unlike Coatepeque, Santa Ana remains active, with small to moderate explosive eruptions recorded since the 16th century. Its most recent severe eruption occurred in 2005.

Although the lake appears its usual blue in this photo, it can occasionally take on a strikingly different hue. At times, the water temporarily shifts to bright turquoise, prompting questions about its cause. In 2024, scientists reported that while pigments from microalgae and cyanobacteria can affect the lake’s color, the turquoise episodes are likely the result of natural mineralization.

The broader landscape around the lake and Santa Ana Volcano is a mosaic of urban areas, agricultural fields, and even more volcanic terrain. The city of Santa Ana lies about 15 kilometers (9 miles) to the north, while San Salvador, also nestled amid volcanoes, lies 40 kilometers (25 miles) to the east. The volcanic landscape stretches more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) along Central America’s Pacific coast, from Guatemala to Panama, composing the Central American Volcanic Arc

Astronaut photograph ISS074-E-312810 was acquired on February 10, 2026, with a Nikon Z9 digital camera using a focal length of 400 millimeters. It was provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA Johnson Space Center. The images were taken by a member of the Expedition 74 crew. The images have been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

References & Resources

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What I’ve been reading

Frank McLynn, Villa and Zapata: A History of the Mexican Revolution.  The best book on its topic, and one of the best books on Mexican history flat out.  Everything is explained with remarkable clarity.  By the way, the central government never really has controlled the entire country, or not for very long anyway.

Sean Mathews, The New Byzantines: The Rise of Greece and Return of the Near East.  Anexcellent and original book, somewhere between a history and travel book.  Views Greece as part of “the Middle East.”  I found every page interesting.

Robert Polito, After the Flood: Inside Bob Dylan’s Memory Palace.  An informationally dense, rambling, and frequently insightful and obsessive book about the “late” career period of Bob Dylan.  When does his “late” period start?  1990 perhaps?  I remember thinking in 1990 that we were well into Dylan’s late career phase.  But that was thirty-six years ago!

Muriel Spark, The Driver’s Seat.  If you like her at all, you will be entranced by this one.  With a radical ending, as you might expect.

Richard Holmes, The Boundless Deep: Young Tennyson, Science, and the Crisis in Belief.  A fun new book on Tennyson’s relations with the science of his time, and how he drifted away from religious belief.

Partha Dasgupta, On Natural Capital: The Value of the World Around Us, is a popular summary of some of his thinking on valuing the environment and natural resources.

Davd Epstein, Inside the Box: How Constraints Make Us Better.  A good popular look at what the subtitle promises.

José Donoso, The Boom in Spanish American Literature: A Personal History is a good lshort overview, noting that Donoso’s own The Obscene Bird of Night is one of the great underrated works of 20th century literature.

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Oil Crises, Past and Possibly Future

Biggest oil refinery in Bahrain blitzed by Iran

In October 1973, on Yom Kippur — the Day of Atonement — Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel. After desperate fighting, the Israelis gained the upper hand, thanks in part to a huge airlift of weapons from the United States.

The Arab world erupted in rage, and oil producers temporarily embargoed exports to the U.S. and other nations that had supported Israel. The result was the first of a series of oil crises that wreaked global economic havoc.

And here we are, almost 53 years later, with a war in the Middle East causing a major disruption of world oil supplies. We don’t know yet how bad this will get. As I write this, analysts are divided. Basically, oil experts’ hair is on fire — the Strait of Hormuz is closed! — while macroeconomists are relatively calm, arguing that we’re not as vulnerable to an oil shock as we were two generations ago.

One thing is clear: It’s important to understand the risks and learn what lessons we can from the past. So today’s primer will be devoted to oil crises, past and possibly future.

Not to be coy about it: The disruption of world oil supplies caused by the war in Iran looks extremely serious. Indeed, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, this will be a worse disruption than either the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War or the aftermath of the 1979 Iranian revolution. Hence the alarm of oil experts.

However, the U.S. economy and other major economies have changed greatly since the 1970s. They have become much less dependent on oil, and they are probably much less prone to experiencing inflationary spirals in the aftermath of an oil price shock. Hence the relatively relaxed attitude of macroeconomists.

Beyond the paywall I will address the following:

1. The history of oil crises, from the Yom Kippur War to Operation Epic Fury

2. Why oil shocks did so much economic damage in the 1970s

3. How the economics of oil have changed since 1973

4. Scenarios for the economic impact of the Iran War

Read more

Quoting Joseph Weizenbaum

What I had not realized is that extremely short exposures to a relatively simple computer program could induce powerful delusional thinking in quite normal people.

Joseph Weizenbaum, creator of ELIZA, in 1976 (via)

Tags: ai-ethics, ai, computer-history, internet-archive

Iran: It’s Hard to Know How to Exit When You Don’t Know Why You’re There

In discussions of modern wars, Americans obsess about “exit strategies”. How do you avoid getting “bogged down?” How do you know when the mission is finished? How do you avoid “mission creep?” These are very much Great Power questions. They’re all questions you ask about what are fundamentally wars of choice. They’re framed as questions of duration and sustainability, questions a Great Power asks when there are likely multiple draws on blood or treasure in various parts of the world, fears of over-extension and over-commitment. Other countries don’t have the luxury of these kinds of questions; it’s built into the Great Power equation. Ukraine has no “exit strategy.” They’re being invaded. They’re fighting to control their own territory and sovereignty. In a way, at least if you place yourself in the world of Greater Russian nationalism where Vladimir Putin and his entourage live, Russia doesn’t have one either. They’re trying to reclaim “their” territory or something between a national and imperial possession. They’ll fight until they get it.

But talk of “exit strategies” is really a way of asking what the goals are that led you to start a war in the first place. If the goal of your military action is clear, your exit strategies should be straightforward. Indeed, you shouldn’t need a “strategy” at all. When your goals are met, you’re done and you leave. Or at least you stop using military force. If you know what your goal is, you fight until you’ve a) achieved your goal or b) realized through battlefield reverses that your goal is unattainable. If your goal is unclear, all the inherent forward momentum of superior military force drives you forward.

There are few modern wars in which the U.S. has launched an all-out war, which this certainly is, with so little clarity about what it is we are even trying to accomplish. The Iraq War of 2003 is certainly a pretty good example of that. But what we were trying to achieve in Iraq was comparatively clear: we wanted to topple the government of Saddam Hussein and replace it with another one. When the moment of invasion came in March 2003, really no one had any question that this was the only outcome the United States would accept. Just why that was so important was much, much fuzzier, and what kind of government we’d put in its place even more so. But the immediate goal of the war was clear: there was no way the U.S. would allow Hussein to remain in power.

How about here? We’re demanding now “unconditional surrender.” That appears to be our current war aim. But we’ve also said it’s eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, degrading its missile armory, creating an opening for a domestic opposition to take power, reacting to an imminent threat. Most notably, the U.S. doesn’t appear to be deploying the kind of force that has much chance of achieving this goal.

A friend of mine commented last night on just how little visibility we seem to have into any part of the war zone — just how little we’re seeing from inside Iran or also, in terms of missile hits, inside Israel. The private sector sources of satellite information have announced a 96-hour hold on imagery of damage to U.S. bases in the region. (If that’s a demand from the U.S. government, it’s an understandable one. But it leaves the public with even less visibility.) President Trump has made a series of increasingly totalizing demands which now appear to amount to unconditional surrender by the current government and an agreement to allow Trump to choose the future leader of Iran. (Notably, this approach to Trump’s electoral prerogative seems to assume a permanent leader, not someone elected by a future democratic government. Obvious, but worth saying out loud and tells you a lot. And Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, son of killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Iran’s new supreme leader after Trump called him an “unacceptable choice.”) If our aim is really unconditional surrender and Iran becoming a U.S. vassal state, it sounds like any exit could be very far off.

And why is defining war aims so difficult? We’re not the first power to have difficulty with this. But it’s a product of the vastly superior military power the U.S. has enjoyed for going on 40 years — figure 1989-90 as the turning point. (Note to get your bearings: that that is approaching as long a period of time as the Cold War itself.) And before that, the U.S. was one of two Great Powers with that kind of military heft within its own sphere. When you have that kind of totally disproportionate military power, you don’t think as clearly about the specific goals you’re trying to achieve. There’s plenty more military power where that came from, so you can improvise. There’s not a huge amount of need, at the level of civilian decision-makers, to finely calibrate and align costs and goals. The resort to military force becomes more a consequence of frustration — national or presidential frustration — when some unacceptable behavior is defined, recognized and then not easily resolved. Like many physically strong people, if they can’t easily get what they want by asking, they resort to force.

That’s been a problem for the U.S. for a long time. It’s wildly more so when U.S. power is so tightly chained to the will and impulses of a single person. Trump started this war as part of the international acting-out he’s been at for the last few months, a way of compensating for reverses at home. If we look at his statements and U.S. actions leading up to the beginning of the war, the impulse or the goal seems simply to be in charge, for Iran to do what Trump says. He’s even stated explicitly that this should be going how it did in Venezuela, where the next in command steps forward and agrees to an indefinite period of vassalhood under not so much the U.S. but Donald Trump himself. What remains of the Iranian state leadership does not seem interested in that. But the desire to be in charge is more a characterological impulse than any kind of military goal. Indeed, it leaves the initiative all in the hands of the adversary. Only the other side can tell you when you’ve gotten what you want. The U.S. keeps fighting until Iran agrees Trump is in charge or the government falls and is replaced by someone who will say that. That’s not only a hard challenge. It’s also a classic example of goals military planners don’t like. You want something clear that you can achieve at your own initiative, without someone else having to agree to anything: blow up the base, occupy the country, cut off exports. These are concrete things a superior military force can achieve through its own actions. This war is probably just about Donald Trump being in charge. That’s not a clear or definable goal. It leaves the initiative in the hands of whoever currently controls the Iran state and military. It’s a recipe for unclarity.

Trump and The New York Times

Cynicism About News Helps Our Dictator

DCReport Readers, I want to strongly encourage you to look at the front page of The New York Times for Sunday, March 8, 2026. There are six stories, any one of which I would have been proud to author, and all of which upend any claim that The Times is no longer worth your time.

The great Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Charlie Savage leads the page with a news analysis headlined “Trump Tramples a Line, Worn Faint, on War. He describes how, since the Cold War began, the Constitutional principle that only Congress can declare war has been progressively eroded.

As commander-in-chief, the President only has inherent authority to defend against a current or imminent attack. Trump’s war on Iran finishes wiping out that bedrock Constitutional standard, while the leadership on Capitol Hill, where Republicans control both chambers, does nothing.

Immediately below that piece, but still above the fold, is a Kenneth P. Vogel piece headlined “Pardon Industry Offers the Rich A Path to Trump.”

Selling Pardons

Vogel, a dogged investigative reporter, devotes an entire inside page to showing how Donald Trump is selling clemency and pardons to the rich. If that sounds like an impeachable offense, it is. Among those pardoned are some of the world’s biggest cocaine traffickers, child sexual abusers, and white-collar criminals who will now get to keep their ill-gotten billions with no restitution to their victims.

This was an exceptionally difficult story to ferret out because public records are scant, and conspirators in these pardons-and-clemency-for-sale schemes aren’t eager to implicate themselves or Trump.

It’s also criminal in my view, as someone who both knows Trump and has taught law for the last 17 years, although I’m not a lawyer.

Taking money to let people out of prison or wipe their slates clean, even when it’s done through intermediaries or ancillary characters, is a crime, not an “official act.” That distinction matters because of a cockamamie 2023 Supreme Court decision that former presidents may not be prosecuted for any “official act” performed while in office.

Issuing clemency and pardons is an official act. Taking money isn’t, even if the money goes to confederates.

Also above the fold: “Colleges Respond to Upswing in Disability Diagnoses,” in which reporters Mark Arsenault and Steven Rich dive into the reasons for the last decade’s 50% jump in the number of students receiving special treatment for diagnosed disabilities. They found that some of these reflect refined techniques to identify disabilities and related physical and intellectual limitations. However, some of it reflects students gaming the system for a range of accommodations, such as extra time to complete quizzes, midterms, and finals.

Billionaire Boom

Right at the fold, a four-column headline suggests a threatening scenario: “Torrent of Money Transforms A Slice of Wyoming” This story documents America’s billionaire boom and how wealth is increasingly concentrated at the very top, a story I started making a kitchen-table topic in 1995 when I became a reporter for The Times, and I continued to pursue it for the next 13 years.

Back then, a small army of critics blamed me for, in their view, abusing income statistics to fabricate an issue. Those critics were never able to point to any conceptual or factual error, but that didn’t stop their attacks until the Obama era, when widening income inequality became so obvious that denial no longer resonated with anyone except cranks and the willfully blind.

Times reporters Katie Benner, Steven Rich, Mike Baker, and John Branch did a fabulous job of updating the economic data to show that the top 1 in 1,000 families is experiencing skyrocketing wealth, while the bottom half of Americans have merely doubled their minuscule wealth in the last 35 years.

The sixth story is about retirees who chose to stay in Gotham rather than go to Florida. As Kiplinger’s, the personal finance magazine, pointed out years ago, if you have your housing costs solved (own, rent-controlled, or rent-stabilized), then the big city is one of the cheapest and most culturally enriching places in America for those with a modest income. No surprise, but a sound reminder.

Unique Workplace Principles

It’s easy to fault The New York Times. Indeed, few people are more critical of the paper than those who work in its newsrooms.

That’s because newsrooms operate on principles different from any other commercial enterprise. There’s an old journalistic saying that “a healthy newsroom is a newsroom with lots of bitching” about what is and is not in the daily report, as the mix of news stories is known among reporters and editors.

Newspapers make mistakes just like every other institution. But they are virtually unique in owning up to those mistakes and ensuring the public is aware of them.

There’s another old saying in newsrooms: “Doctors bury their mistakes, lawyers see theirs off to jail, only reporters sign theirs on the front page for everyone to read.”

Standing Up

I once spent money on researchers to find out who originated that phrase. The oldest verifiable use was under my byline. But I did not originate it. If you know who did, please write to us via the DCReport Tipline.

Few institutions in America have the resources, the talent, and the institutional imperatives to stand fast against Trump. For a long time, The Washington Post stood for our Constitution and the liberties of the people. But then its billionaire owner, Jeff Bezos, decided his fortune mattered more than America’s future as a democracy of free peoples.

Now and then, Rupert Murdoch’s The Wall Street Journal breaks a big story that infuriates Trump. But Donald can rely on the WSJ opinion pages to, for the most part, give cover for his anti-democratic moves. The American edition of The Guardian, a British newspaper, is solid, as are many independent news websites.

If you want to live free. If you want your progeny and the progeny of others to enjoy our liberties, then one key thing you can do is start every morning by reading The New York Times.

That doesn’t mean you should concur with or believe everything you read. Read the first rough draft of history with a grain of salt, as I do. Recognize that some reporters are great and many are merely good, and that, overall, the news is a highly accurate recounting of the official version of events and the official criticisms of those events.

Or be cynical. Close your eyes. Donald Trump will exploit your ignorance, but he’ll never thank you.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

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Sunday 8 March 1662/63

(Lord’s day). Being sent to by Sir J. Minnes to know whether I would go with him to White Hall to-day, I rose but could not get ready before he was gone, but however I walked thither and heard Dr. King, Bishop of Chichester, make a good and eloquent sermon upon these words, “They that sow in tears, shall reap in joy.”

Thence (the chappell in Lent being hung with black, and no anthem sung after sermon, as at other times), to my Lord Sandwich at Sir W. Wheeler’s. I found him out of order, thinking himself to be in a fit of an ague, but in the afternoon he was very cheery. I dined with Sir William, where a good but short dinner, not better than one of mine commonly of a Sunday.

After dinner up to my Lord, there being Mr. Rumball. My Lord, among other discourse, did tell us of his great difficultys passed in the business of the Sound, and of his receiving letters from the King there, but his sending them by Whetstone was a great folly; and the story how my Lord being at dinner with Sydney, one of his fellow plenipotentiarys and his mortal enemy, did see Whetstone, and put off his hat three times to him, but the fellow would not be known, which my Lord imputed to his coxcombly humour (of which he was full), and bid Sydney take notice of him too, when at the very time he had letters in his pocket from the King, as it proved afterwards. And Sydney afterwards did find it out at Copenhagen, the Dutch Commissioners telling him how my Lord Sandwich had hired one of their ships to carry back Whetstone to Lubeck, he being come from Flanders from the King. But I cannot but remember my Lord’s aequanimity in all these affairs with admiration.

Thence walked home, in my way meeting Mr. Moore, with whom I took a turn or two in the street among the drapers in Paul’s Churchyard, talking of business, and so home to bed.

Read the annotations

What Motivates Trump?

March 7, 2026

At 8:50 yesterday morning, President Donald J. Trump posted on social media: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. IRAN WILL HAVE A GREAT FUTURE. ‘MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN (MIGA!).’ Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

As Alex Leary and Vera Bergengruen of the Wall Street Journal observed, the demand for unconditional surrender was quite a shift from Trump’s original promise to the people of Iran that the future is “yours to take,” or even his early claim that he was hoping to knock out Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump’s shift highlighted that there appears to have been very little planning for what would happen after U.S. and Israeli bombs began to rain on Iran.

Leary and Bergengruen noted that Trump was bouncing ideas for the next stage of the assault off journalists even as ships stopped passing through the Strait of Hormuz, American citizens were stranded in the Middle East, the war spread to countries throughout the region, and U.S. military personnel died.

When reporters asked about what Trump meant by unconditional surrender, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt seemed to say that unconditional surrender meant whatever Trump decides it does whenever he decides what the goals of Operation Epic Fury are. She said: “What the president means is that when he as commander in chief of the U.S. armed forces determines that Iran no longer poses a threat to the United States of America and the goals of Operation Epic Fury has [sic] been fully realized, then Iran will essentially be in a place of unconditional surrender whether they say it themselves or not.”

Like other administration figures, Leavitt suggested that the violence itself was the point, saying: “Frankly, they don’t have a lot of people to say that for them because the United States and the state of Israel have completely wiped out more than fifty leaders of the former terrorist regime including the supreme leader himself.”

President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran’s enemies “must take their dream of the Iranian people’s unconditional surrender to their graves,” but he did apologize to neighboring countries for the strikes against U.S. military bases in their lands. He said Iran would suspend those strikes unless those states themselves launched attacks on Iran.

At 6:11 this morning, Trump posted on social media: “Iran, which is being beat to Hell, has apologized and surrendered to its Middle East neighbors, and promised that it will not shoot at them anymore. This promise was only made because of the relentless U.S. and Israeli attack. They were looking to take over and rule the Middle East. It is the first time that Iran has ever lost, in thousands of years, to surrounding Middle Eastern Countries. They have said, ‘Thank you President Trump.’ I have said, ‘You’re welcome!’ Iran is no longer the ‘Bully of the Middle East,’ they are, instead, ‘THE LOSER OF THE MIDDLE EAST,’ and will be for many decades until they surrender or, more likely, completely collapse! Today Iran will be hit very hard! Under serious consideration for complete destruction and certain death, because of Iran’s bad behavior, are areas and groups of people that were not considered for targeting up until this moment in time. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Zach Everson of Public Citizen recalled a quotation from William Shirer’s The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, summing up Adolf Hitler’s view: “We must always demand so much that we can never be satisfied.”

Today, on Air Force One, when asked “what unconditional surrender looks like to you,” Trump answered: “Where they cry uncle or when they can’t fight any longer and there’s nobody around to cry uncle. That could happen too…. If they surrender or if there is nobody around to surrender but they’re rendered useless in terms of military.”

On Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned representatives from sixteen Latin American and Caribbean countries that if they don’t adopt more aggressive strategies against drug cartels, the Trump administration will do it for them. Hegseth urged the countries to remain “Christian nations, under God, proud of our shared heritage with strong borders,” and not be led astray by “radical narco-communism, anarcho-tyranny…and uncontrolled mass migration.”

Tiago Rogero of The Guardian reported that Latin American countries resisted the framing of Hegseth’s speech. The title of his article used the word “dismay.”

In Miami today, Trump and his advisors convened a “Shield of the Americas” summit with twelve of Latin America’s Trump-aligned leaders. At the meeting, Trump called for an “anti-cartel coalition” that would use military might to crush drug cartels. Former homeland security secretary Kristi Noem told the group: “Now that America is secure, and our borders are secure, we want to focus on our neighbors and help our neighbors with their borders and the challenges they have.”

Trump suggested that Cuba was next on his list of countries to topple. “We’re looking forward to the great change that will soon be coming to Cuba,” Trump said. “They have no money, they have no oil, they have a bad philosophy and bad regime.” “Cuba is in its last moments of life as it was, but it will have a great new life,” he said.

In Need to Know, David Rothkopf today called out the madness of the fact world trade and global security is being shattered by a single man. “Not since Adolf Hitler blew his brains out in a bunker beneath the garden of the German Reich Chancellery on April 30, 1945, have the lives of so many people around the world been so buffeted by the psychosis of a single man.”

Why has Trump launched a war against Iran on a whim, attacked other countries, and upended world trade, Rothkopf asked. “Because he’s insane. Because he’s venal. Because he’s a malignant narcissist. Because he’s a sociopath. Because he has a fragile ego. Because those around him exacerbate and play to those traits to advance their own interests. Because CEOs and investors do likewise to fill their coffers. Because to some people, whether he is insane or malevolent or repugnant or not matters less than whether his actions will feather their nests, increase their power.

“Because they, the billionaires…play their games and the consequences for the little people down below, the consequences for us, hardly matter a whit.”

On Thursday, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) called attention to another factor in play. In a speech to the Senate, Whitehouse noted that throughout his second term, Trump has advanced policies that help Russia, pausing weapons shipments to Ukraine, easing sanctions on Russia, and pushing a peace deal favorable to Russia. Last summer, he welcomed Putin to American soil, and administration officials have parroted Russian propaganda. Russian state media gloated when Trump “installed Russia apologist Tulsi Gabbard as his director of national intelligence,” and Attorney General Pam Bondi upon taking office stopped the anti-kleptocracy work that had targeted Russian oligarchs.

Trump’s new national security policy threw traditional U.S. allies overboard and favored policies that Russian government officials praised as “largely consistent” with their own.

“If Trump were purposefully doing Russia’s bidding,” Whitehouse said, “it is hard to see what he would be doing differently. The United States is the most powerful nation in the world. Russia is a weak, corrupt regime. My old friend Senator John McCain used to say that Russia is a gas station, run by gangsters, with an army. It doesn’t make sense that the President of the United States, who insists—insists—on being dominant in essentially every relationship, is so submissive to one person and that one person is Russia’s dictator, Vladimir Putin.”

Whitehouse suggested that the answer “could…have something to do with Trump’s close friendship with the deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.” He noted that the Epstein files, riddled as they are with references to Trump, are also riddled with references to Russian girls and women, Russian operatives, and Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Whitehouse spoke about how many of Epstein’s victims believed he was recording them, and how there were hidden cameras installed throughout his homes. He quoted Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre, who wrote: “He explicitly talked about using me and what I’d been forced to do with certain men as a form of blackmail, so these men would owe him favors.”

Whitehouse suggested the possibility that Epstein might have been working with Russian operatives, but emphasized that we don’t know. “Epstein was an inveterate liar and a criminal who often sought to exaggerate his power and influence, and the Epstein files need to be viewed through that lens,” he said. “What we do know is that a significant number of powerful men—our current President, some of his cabinet secretaries, tech billionaires like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and others—were very mixed up with Epstein at different times. And Epstein seems to have been very mixed up with Russia.”

“We also know that there is a cover-up afoot at the Department of Justice,” he continued, where officials are “trying to shield Trump from something in the Epstein files.”

“One of the great forces that Washington runs on is normalcy bias,” he said, but he suggested looking past that bias to note that “we have links with Russia, girls from Russia, money from Russia, people from Russia, deals and transactions with Russia, contacts with people with Russian intelligence, news reports exploring contacts with Russia, and an official investigation from the government of Poland into an Epstein-Russia connection.”

Yesterday Noah Robertson, Ellen Nakashima, and Warren P. Strobel of the Washington Post reported that Russia is providing Iran with the information it needs to attack U.S. forces in the Middle East, including aircraft and ships.

During a roundtable on college sports, Peter Doocy of the Fox News Channel asked Trump about that report, saying: “It sounds like the Russians are helping Iran target and attack Americans now.” Trump responded: “I have a lot of respect for you. You’ve always been very nice to me. What a stupid question that is to be asking at this time. We’re talking about something else.”

Notes:

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-is-rewriting-the-iran-endgame-in-real-time-98f8531f

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/07/iran-trump-unconditional-surrender-war-masoud-pezeshkian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/07/an-ideological-guest-list-trump-invites-latin-americas-rightwing-leaders-to-florida-summit

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/07/trump-shield-of-americas-summit

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/07/an-ideological-guest-list-trump-invites-latin-americas-rightwing-leaders-to-florida-summit

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/05/hegseth-latin-america-drug-cartels

Need to Know by David Rothkopf
Living in a Time of Lunatics and Monsters
Not since Adolf Hitler blew his brains out in a bunker beneath the garden of the German Reich Chancellery on April 30, 1945, have the lives of so many people around the world been so buffeted by the psychosis of a single man…
Read more

https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-speak-shield-americas-summit-aimed-taking-cartels/story?id=130847707

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/06/russia-iran-intelligence-us-targets/

YouTube:

watch?v=ylvTFvJvB84

Bluesky:

zacheverson.com/post/3mghqh4cc4c2l

2026/03/06/trump-iran-oil-surrender.html

thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3mgj3lywzvc2h

atrupar.com/post/3mgfx6ep5ic2f

pauleric70.bsky.social/post/3mgghyqdcb22l

maxboot.bsky.social/post/3mgflyratnc25

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Remembering Reverend Jesse Jackson

The Neo solves Apple’s embarrassment

Last week, Apple released a parade of hardware announcements, and the one that captured the most attention across the industry was the $600 ($500 if you’re in education!) MacBook Neo, the brightly-colored low-end laptop that they launched to great fanfare. The conventional wisdom is that this product opens up Apple to the low end of the laptop market for the first time, radically changing the dynamics of the entire market, and throwing down the gauntlet to the garbage Windows laptop market, as well as challenging a huge swath of Chromebooks which tend to dominate in the education market. This is incorrect.

Apple has, in fact, sold a MacBook Air with an M1 chip at Walmart for years, which it has intermittently discounted to $499 at key times like Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The single-core performance of that laptop (meaning, how it works for most normal tasks that people do, like browsing the web or writing email or watching YouTube videos), is very nearly equivalent to the newly-released MacBook Neo.

But. A laptop with an old design, using a chip that has an old number (the M1 chip came out six years ago!), sold exclusively through a mass-market retailer that is perceived as anything but premium, presents an enormous brand challenge for Apple. It is, to put it simply, embarrassing. Apple can have low-end products in its range. They invest lots of effort in that segment of their product line, as the new iPhone 17e shows, making a new basic entrant to their most recent series of phones. But Apple can’t have old, basic-looking products that people aren’tt even able to buy at an Apple Store.

And that’s what Neo solves. It’s a smart reframing of a product that is nearly the same offering as the old M1 Air: the Neo and that old M1 machine both have 13” screens, both weigh just under 3 pounds, both have 8GB of RAM, both start at 256GB of storage, both have about 16 hours of battery life, are both about 8”x12”, both have 2 USB ports and a headphone jack, and both of course cost almost exactly the same. They did add a new yellow (citrus!) color for the Neo, though.

Wake up, Neo

What was more striking to me was Apple’s introductory video, which clearly seems aimed at people who are new to Apple computers, or maybe people who are new to laptop computers entirely. They’re imagining a user base who’s only ever had their smartphones and are buying computers for the first time — which might describe a lot of students. There’s no discussion here of the chamfers of the aluminum, or the pipelines in the GPU cores, and there’s barely even the slightest mention of AI; instead, they describe the basics of what the laptop includes, and even go out of their way to explain how it interoperates with an iPhone.

There’s also a very clear attempt to distinguish Neo’s branding from the rest of Apple’s design language. The type for the “MacBook Neo” name in the launch video, and the “Hello, Neo” text on the product homepage are a rounded typeface that’s so new that it’s not actually even an actual font that Apple’s using; they’ve rendered it as an image instead of a variation of their usual “San Francisco” font that Apple uses for everything else in their standard marketing materials. The throwback to 2000s-era design (terminal green, the word “Neo” — are we entering the Matrix?) couldn’t be more different from the “it looks expensive” vibes of something like the Apple Watch Hermès branding.

In all, it’s pretty impressive to see Apple use its marketing strengths to take a product that is remarkably similar to something that they’ve had for sale for years at the largest retailer in the world, and position it as a brand-new, category-defining new entry into a space. To me, the biggest thing this shows is the blind spot that traditional tech trade press has to the actual buying patterns and lived experience of normal people who shop at Walmart all the time; it would be pretty hard to see Neo as particularly novel if you had walked by a Walmart tech section any time in the last three years.

At a time when Apple has lost whatever moral compass it had, even though its machines still say “privacy is a human right” when you turn them on, we still want to see positive signs from the company. And a good one is that Apple is engaging with the reality that the current moment calls for products that are far more affordable. It is a good thing indeed when affordable products are presented as being desirable, when most of the product’s enclosure is made of recycled material, and when the lifespan of a product can be expected to be significantly longer than most in its category, instead of simply being treated as disposable. All it took was removing the stigma over the existing affordable laptop that Apple’s been selling for years.

Links 3/8/26

Links for you. Science:

Experts warn NIH director now leading CDC will push ‘RFK Jr’s agenda’
N.I.H. Director Will Temporarily Run C.D.C. in Leadership Shake-Up
Revitalizing actinobacteria research: an urgent response to the antimicrobial resistance crisis
The 80% power lie
National Institutes of Health faces leadership vacuum as director positions sit open
This Is What Destroying the Vaccine Market Looks Like. A shocking move by RFK Jr.’s team has the industry spooked—for good reason.

Other:

Donald Trump, Jeffrey Epstein, And The Construction Of Political Crisis
Don’t Be Fooled By the Corrupt Court’s Tariff Decision
Get Ready for Zombie Tariffs. Even after losing at the Supreme Court, Trump has plenty of ways to reconstruct his trade regime.
Pastor Linked to Erika Kirk Faces Child Trafficking Charges as Online Speculation Spreads
Kansas pass anti-trans ‘bathroom bounty’ law despite governor’s veto (very weird original headline, demonstrating a lack of basic political knowledge)
MAHA Moms Turn Against Trump: ‘Women Feel Like They Were Lied To’
DOJ Deleted Record Revealing That Maxwell Holds Potential Blackmail Over Trump
The break is over. Companies are jacking up prices again.
Kansas Mayor Who Voted for Trump as Noncitizen Faces Felony Charges (he’s Republican, obviously…)
Indian Skier Starts, Finishes Race
Florida pickleball brawl involving up to 20 people results in paddles to the face and felony charges
He made a fake ICE deportation tip line. Then a kindergarten teacher called.
How Legal Immigration Became a Deportation Trap
Maryland bans partnerships with ICE, citing ‘unaccountable agents’
Epstein was invited to gatherings with a dozen members of Congress years after his initial arrest, documents reveal
I Guess We’re Still Doing This
Jesse Watters says billionaires should “make the homeless people in skid row fight like gladiators”
‘Hello Girls!’: Epstein Donated to Harvard Student Group for Years After Sex Conviction
Security And Confidentiality
Staff at Dilley raiding cells to confiscate kids’ letters and drawings detailing conditions inside. The raids allegedly began in response to a recent ProPublica article featuring letters and drawings from children inside the San Antonio-area immigrant detention site.
US plans online portal to bypass content bans in Europe and elsewhere
ICE moves out to the suburbs. The less densely populated areas outside the Twin Cities make it harder for protesters and observers to organize.
Epstein Used Botstein’s Prestige and Connections to Recruit and Support One of His Victims, a Violinist from Europe
Turns Out There Was Voter Fraud in Georgia—by Elon Musk
The billionaires’ eugenics project: how Epstein infiltrated Harvard, muzzled the humanities and preached master-race science
Nevada Brothel Workers Are Unionizing to Protect Their Digital Rights
US judge throws out immigration board’s ruling endorsing Trump mass detention policy
Wow, Elon Musk sure does like White people
Look how much Canadians hate the United States now
Bizarre new RFK Jr video features shirtless secretary climbing into tub in jeans

Can Coding Agents Relicense Open Source Through a ‘Clean Room’ Implementation of Code?

Simon Willison:

There are a lot of open questions about this, both ethically and legally. These appear to be coming to a head in the venerable chardet Python library. chardet was created by Mark Pilgrim back in 2006 and released under the LGPL. Mark retired from public internet life in 2011 and chardet’s maintenance was taken over by others, most notably Dan Blanchard who has been responsible for every release since 1.1 in July 2012.

Two days ago Dan released chardet 7.0.0 with the following note in the release notes:

Ground-up, MIT-licensed rewrite of chardet. Same package name, same public API — drop-in replacement for chardet 5.x/6.x. Just way faster and more accurate!

Yesterday Mark Pilgrim opened #327: No right to relicense this project.

A fascinating dispute, and the first public post from Pilgrim that I’ve seen in quite a while.

 ★ 

Steve Lemay Hits Apple’s Leadership Page

Help us Obi-Wan Lemay, you’re our only hope.

(Also, as noted by Joe Rossignol, Eddy Cue got an updated headshot.)

 ★ 

Jazz Samba

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w/e 2026-03-08

The state of my tasks list in Things remains non-optimal but has not yet descended into a swamp of forever tasks. Still recoverable.

Although I didn’t have many symptoms remaining from last weekend’s cold, I still felt unusually tired, so I skipped exercise until the end of the week. That was pretty nice, I must admit, gaining at least an hour or two a day (including driving time to the gym) for important faffing.

Had a filling this week, the first for years, which was fine, aside from the pain of the injection and the numbness for most of 24 hours. Now I’m just worried it’s going to break or fall out, which I haven’t been about the others for however long I’ve had them.


§ This week I’ve been listening a lot to Lucrecia Dalt’s 2024 album A Danger to Ourselves:

Some good sounds.


§ One day this week I wrote a script for getting all the listed buildings in a specified area of England and outputting that as an HTML table. I feel pretty rusty at writing code and I’m not sure if it’s because of this that it took me quite a while to work out how to access the API for getting that list.

[Several boring paragraphs detailing how I stumbled my way to figuring out the URL and parameters for the API deleted.]

It’s very nice that this is all “open data” but if you can’t provide some simple instructions for accessing and querying it then I’d argue it’s only “open” in one sense. I have no idea how anyone would find that – never mind figure out what any of it meant – without, as I did, stumbling around many pages, examining the network requests in my browser’s web developer console, trial and error, and gag asking ChatGPT.

If it’s open, write documentation.


§ A photo of a tortoiseshell cat asleep on a cushion. It's a close-up of her head lying on its side, eyes closed.
Pippa on a cushion on my lap on Monday morning

§ I updated the guidelines for posting comments on The Diary of Samuel Pepys this week, for the first time in years (decades?), to say that using AI is not permitted. There is no surer sign of a man (and it usually is) who has nothing worth saying than them posting a comment that starts “I asked ChatGPT…” It’s barely happened on that site yet, but best to pre-empt such things.


§ I quickly finished reading Blue Ruin by Hari Kunzru this week (here’s a decent review) which I enjoyed. Although it’s set during COVID this is mostly just a reason for the characters to be stuck in one place with little outside contact. I enjoyed all the backstory about the characters as art students, then entering the art world, and their struggles with all that entails.


§ We finished season four of Industry this week which was good fun. Some dramas are a bit spoiled when certain events or dialogue seems unbelievable. But almost everything about Industry is unbelievable, all too over-the-top and simplified, that you can just accept this world and enjoy the drama and characters.


§ That’s all. Have a good week.


Read comments or post one

Trump’s War Week Raises Questions About Who Is Really Being “Protected”

War, politics, and rising global tension define a chaotic week for Trump’s America.

Brief Summary – A chaotic week of U.S. military strikes against Iran, economic turmoil, and political messaging has raised questions about Donald Trump’s claim that his primary duty is protecting Americans. Critics argue the administration’s actions reflect distraction, instability, and unclear strategic goals.

A whirlwind of a week in Donald Trump’s world has swirled expectations in global relationships, in economics, in politics and in any sense of personal security. Every conversation now is filled with public dread over uncertainty and private desire to shut the noise.

Apart from watching a war develop seemingly uncontrollably, we’re seeing prices rise yet more, jobs and immigrants disappearing before us, health care and social services being declared optional at best, and Americans fleeing late from the Middle East.

We are getting a constant barrage of messaging that if we complain, we’re being told we are  unpatriotic, even if those messages change by the day or hour. As an example, Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender” by Iran faded after a day to “when Iran can fight no longer,” just as quickly as “war” was being described as a “limited combat opportunity.”

Iran’s president said Iran would halt unprovoked attacks on neighbors except Israel, only to have reports in the hours that followed of more Iranian missiles landing.

At his recent State of the Union, Trump demanded that people stand if they agree that “The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.”  It prompted Republican legislators to rise while Democrats, who see that statement riddled with illegal tactics and randomly unwarranted deportations remaining seated and expressionless.

Even in the moment, it smacked of political grandstanding for partisan gain. But a week or more later, it feels an empty gimmick worth re-applying.

In the name of “protecting American citizens,” Trump has launched a preemptive strike against Iran, acting apart from all allies but Israel, and leaving many believing that Trump remains under the sway of Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu towards an expensive, open-ended conflict towards ends that even the administration has trouble encapsulating.

When War/Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the military objectives are clear, he’s probably right. The U.S. and Israeli military commands have long-established lists of specific targets to wipe out nuclear and missile capacity, weapons manufacture, Islamic Revolutionary Guard command and control and the like. More than a week after the launch of daily sorties against hundreds of targets a day – and on the brink of committing some “limited” ground forces — the ultimate political, economic, security goals remain uncharted, and unaddressed.

All week, there was continuing talk of one Trump move trying to distract from the previous one, whether the war was a “wag the dog” move about slumping polls and election setbacks, the ever-present Epstein mess or immigration roundups seen as gone out of control. It feels as if there always is something from which we need distraction.

War-Torn Week That Was

In this single week, the Congress has sought, and failed, to pass resolutions to assert its Constitutional right to declare war amid arguments from Republicans who avoid the use of the word “war” to elude the requirement. By the day, Iran shows no sign of concession and is bombing – and drawing response from Israel and a growing number of Gulf nations – in ever-widening circles to make this conflict much wider.

Rather than American dominance, what we are witnessing is a flailing America working out of sync with allies to demand obedience from a world that is growing increasingly uneasy with the U.S. and its promises, and with Trump’s government. Using brute force is usually not the best way to win hearts and minds, whether in Iran or in the many historical cases that have proceeded it.

None of this has to do with the “rightness” of acting against Iran’s bad behavior over five decades, but everything to do with the ham-handedness and egocentricity with which Trump seems to have blown a unique chance to build and lead a coalition of nations towards a common goal.

As a result, even within a first week of war by whatever name, we are already seeing ill economic effects building, further undercutting the Trump arguments that he is presiding over an American “golden age.” The week was concluding with unexpected downturns in job numbers, oil and energy prices rocketing around the world as shipping through the Gulf is halted, and even questions about available weaponry for a sustained conflict.

It was a week that opened the U.S. election season, amid solid gains and enthusiasm for Trump opponents even in deep-red Texas, scandals that further threaten the thin Republican Congressional majorities, and the firing of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem over her botched public relations handling of a $220 million ad campaign at a time when Homeland Security is threatened by possible Iranian cells.

Court rulings continue to declare Trump policies illegal over tariffs and the proposed prosecution of political foes, while federal agencies are focusing on control over what comedians can say on television and what merit badges earned by Scouts may violate Trump’s sense of horror at diversity and inclusion concerns.

Trump and Hegseth were taking heat for dismissive comments about the first troop deaths as something to expect, and saying Americans should expect there will be more to come. Those fleeing the Middle East only after the start of these preemptive strikes are hearing from the White House that they should have known the area was dangerous from its previous travel warnings.

Trump and Hegseth insist that U.S. weapons supplies are ample enough for multiple global military deployments but had defense contractors meet in the White House to agree to speed production of replacement missiles, drones and explosives.

Trump is making a point of greeting the coffins of six U.S. soldiers killed, but has dismissed casualties as something that happens in war.

Who is ‘Crazy’?

Together, it makes one question whether Trump is rising this week to say that his primary mission is to “protect American citizens.”

He’s not protecting against increasing prices or war-fueled inflation. He is not protecting against a diminishing respect abroad from international institutions and our expected allies. He is not protecting in any systematic manner against the sexual abuse exposed by the Epstein Files, and there are serious questions about whether his anti-drug campaign is effective by any practical measure.

He is protecting Americans against his “feelings based on fact” belief, as the White House tells it, that Iran wants to reconstitute its nuclear weapons development and continue to harass Israel and the Gulf with missiles. But we have yet to see that there was anything “imminent” about those plans. The Omani go-between official who was shuttling between Iranian and U.S. negotiators said Iran was ready to accept most terms that Trump had wanted about nukes, but that other missiles were not discussed.

On the other hand, we have seen much reporting this week saying that the Israelis wanted to strike Iran while it was down after the previous U.S.-Israeli bombing run on nuclear labs and setbacks for Hezbollah and Hamas, Iranian proxies. The “imminent” danger seemed concern for U.S. personnel in the region being endangered by expected Iranian response to an Israeli strike.

Now that the political season is open, we can expect to see Republican ads about who was standing and who was not at the State of the Union, as if that showed who is loyal to Trump and who is “crazy,” in Trump’s label.

Trump now argues that Democrats back both unending illegal immigration and a nuclear-armed Iran.

Who is “protected” in all this. It feels as if it is Team Trump that is protected, not Americans, citizen or not.

Just who is crazy here? If backing the Constitution for its process guarantees for individual rights for citizens and migrants alike and a belief that we ought to know what the goal is before sending thousands of U.S. airmen, sailors and troops at Iran, count me as one of the loons.

This week was not about disagreement. It was about trying to stuff “crazy” into political packaging.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

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Sunday assorted links

1. “Under the laws, Victorians [Australia] who can work from home will have the legal right to do so two days a week.

2. Adam Smith against hegemony.

3. US median income vs. Europe.

4. The academic papers is a dead format these days (read the whole chain).

5. The wisdom of Daniel Gross.

6. The political economy of California initiatives.

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RFA plans first launch this summer

RFA ONE, March 2026

German launch startup Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA) says it is planning its first launch for this summer after delivering two of its stages to the launch site.

The post RFA plans first launch this summer appeared first on SpaceNews.

Would America be in recession without the super-rich?

American anxieties are K-shaped. The economy is more like a backslash

Big drop in international students coming to US (particularly from India)

 The Chronicle of Higher Ed has the story:

The Drop in International Students Last Year Was Worse Than We Thought  By Karin Fischer 

  

 

 

A Fly Has Been Uploaded

In 2024, the entire neuronal diagram of the fruit-fly brain–some 140,000 neurons and 50 million connections–was mapped. Later research showed that the map could be used to predict behavior. Now, Eon Systems a firm with some of the scientists involved in the fruit-fly research and with the goal of uploading a human brain has announced that they uploaded the fruit fly brain to a digital environment.

The digital fly appears to behave in the digital environment in reasonably fly like ways–this is not a simulation, the fly’s “sensors” are being activated by the digital environment and the neurons are responding. Some more details here.

N.b. this work is not yet published.

Addendum 1: Of course Robin Hanson is an advisor to Eon Systems.

Addendum 2: In other news, human brain cells on a chip learned to play Doom. No word on whether they were conscious or not.

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Something feels weird about this economy

There are three basic facts you need to know about the U.S. macroeconomy right now:

  1. The economy overall (growth, employment, inflation) is doing pretty well.

  2. Productivity growth is unusually high.

  3. Job growth is terrible.

Let’s start with some numbers. Late 2025 is the latest number we have for GDP growth, but it looks pretty solid — around 2.5%, about where it was in the late 2010s.

And most people still have jobs. Prime-age employment rates — my favorite single indicator of the labor market — are still really high. Higher than any time in the 2010s, actually:

If you look at unemployment, you can see a slowly rising trend since mid-2023, even if you restrict it to the prime age group. But this is entirely due to more people saying that they’re looking for work — prime-age labor force participation has been steadily rising. So that’s not very scary either. It’s just more of the people without jobs saying that they’re looking for work, instead of just sitting around.

Meanwhile, inflation is still in the 2.5% range — a little higher than we would like, but not particularly fast.

So in terms of the headline numbers, everything is kind of just bumping along. From a bird’s-eye view, this economy looks pretty normal and healthy. Under normal circumstances, I’d be inclined to not even write a post about the macroeconomy this month.

But underneath the surface, two interesting things are happening. The first is that productivity growth has accelerated; the second is that job growth has stalled out. On its face, this sort of pattern might suggest that AI is finally starting to take Americans’ jobs — and lots of people are suggesting this conclusion. But when we look closely at the numbers, the story becomes more complicated.

Productivity is booming

The first is that productivity growth has accelerated. Output per hour — also called “labor productivity”, which is sort of a quick, rough-and-ready measure of productivity — is growing significantly faster than it was in the late 2010s. It’s been at around 2.5-3% since late 2023, compared to more like 1-2% during Trump’s first term:

In fact, productivity is well above where economists thought it would be six years ago:

Source: Jason Furman

That’s a major acceleration. 2.8% labor productivity growth is about equal to the best decades we’ve seen since World War 2. If that rate is sustained for a decade, or accelerates further, it’ll be pretty historic.

What’s driving the productivity boom? It’s tempting to conclude that AI is making white-collar workers more productive, but Ernie Tedeschi points out that the biggest swing has been in manufacturing productivity. For a long time, manufacturing productivity was basically flatlining in America; now it’s suddenly growing again.

Tedeschi argues that this is also probably AI-driven, but it’s not about people using ChatGPT and Claude Code at work — it’s about the fact that a ton of data centers are being built, and data centers are very valuable:

If you look at data centers’ contribution to growth itself, it looks pretty small, but this masks the value of the computers contained within the data centers. Together, the creation of data centers and computing equipment have been contributing about as much to GDP growth as they were during the dot-com boom:

A second thing that’s happening is that American capital is being utilized more intensively — machines are being run for more hours of the day, buildings are keeping the lights on longer, and so on. The San Francisco Fed makes monthly estimates of Total Factor Productivity growth — productivity growth once you take the amount of labor and capital into account — and they find that it’s been pretty fast since late 2023. But once you take utilization rates into account, it looks like there was a moderate burst of TFP growth in 2023-4 that faded in 2025:

Source: SF Fed

This is also consistent with the story that the data center boom, not an AI use boom, is driving fast productivity growth in America.

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A market-based officer retention system?

The Army is launching a new Warrant Officer Retention Bonus Auction. This initiative introduces a market‑based approach to retaining senior technical talent while ensuring responsible stewardship of taxpayer dollars. The program represents a shift from traditional, fixed‑rate bonuses to a more flexible, market-driven system.

The structure is designed to make the best strategy straightforward—bid your true value. Eligible warrant officers will submit a confidential bid indicating the minimum monthly bonus they would be satisfied receiving in exchange for a six‑year Active‑Duty Service Obligation. Overbidding increases the risk of missing out on a bonus, while underbidding could result in commitment to a lower rate. Army leadership believes the system rewards transparency and encourages officers to carefully consider the compensation that would make them comfortable with continued service.

“The goal is simple. Reward as many qualified Warrant Officers as possible with the most competitive bonus the budget allows,” said Lt. Col. Tim Justicz, an Army economist who helped design the program.

Once bids are submitted, the Army will determine a single market‑clearing bonus rate that retains the maximum number of qualified warrant officers within the available budget. Every warrant officer whose bid falls at or below that rate will receive the same bonus amount. This means that warrant officers who bid lower than the final rate will still receive the higher, market‑determined bonus.

Here is more, via Charles Klingman.

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On social media and parents (from my email)

Fron anonymous:

I personally think social media is pretty bad for people (kids and adults). I got off Facebook around 2009. I never got on Twitter. I had Instagram for a while but only followed my wife to see her posts of our family. This worked great until Instagram started feeding me content beyond the people I was following (really just my wife), so I quit using it. The only social media I currently use is Substack (not sure if that counts?). But the same dynamic may be playing out there as well (the algorithm feeding me stuff I don’t want, and me getting locked into wasting time doom scrolling).

HOWEVER, I completely agree with your point about parents. Our 14-year-old son has an iPhone, but we have locked it down pretty tight. It took some work on our part, to be honest. And we have to be pretty vigilant about enforcing the no-phone-in-your-room rule (which is a source of conflict sometimes). Our son has no social media accounts. He can text and he has access to a few messaging apps that they use at his school. Beyond that, we’ve basically shut down his ability to access the internet on the phone. His Chromebook works perfectly well for any legitimate internet needs.

In principle, any parent can do what we’ve done. So why don’t they? Why are they begging the government to do something they could just do themselves, albeit with a little work? Well, I’ve been struck by how badly many parents desperately need their children’s approval. They find themselves incapable of disappointing or upsetting their children on even the smallest of things. They know they should tell their kids not to use TikTok (or whatever), but they don’t want to make their kids mad. That’s why they want someone else to do it for them.

I don’t get it. Perhaps I’m overly cranky, but I honestly don’t mind it if (when) my kids get mad when I do something I believe is in their best interest. I simply don’t believe my children’s emotional reaction is a very good guide to parenting. Because they’re children. And they don’t know very much. And they especially don’t know what they don’t know and that’s why I’m here. If I won’t tell my kids no when they need to hear it but don’t want to hear it, then what good am I? My wife feels the same way. But we see lots of families that clearly feel differently.

Okay rant over.

See also Arnold Kling on related ideas.

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Donald Knuth on Claude Opus Solving a Computer Science Problem

Donald Knuth, who, adorably, effectively blogs by posting TeX-typeset PDFs:

Shock! Shock! I learned yesterday that an open problem I’d been working on for several weeks had just been solved by Claude Opus 4.6 — Anthropic’s hybrid reasoning model that had been released three weeks earlier! It seems that I’ll have to revise my opinions about “generative AI” one of these days. What a joy it is to learn not only that my conjecture has a nice solution but also to celebrate this dramatic advance in automatic deduction and creative problem solving. I’ll try to tell the story briefly in this note.

(Via Simon Willison.)

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What's going on inside the head of this nebula? What's going on inside the head of this nebula?


Low-Wage Contractors in Kenya See What Users See While Using Meta’s AI Smart Glasses

Naipanoi Lepapa, Ahmed Abdigadir, and Julia Lindblom, reporting for the Swedish publications Svenska Dagbladet and Göteborgs-Posten:

It is stuffy at the top of the hotel in Nairobi, Kenya. The grey sky presses the heat against the windows. The man in front of us is nervous. If his employer finds out that he is here, he could lose everything. He is one of the people few even realise exist — a flesh-and-blood worker in the engine room of the data industry. What he has to say is explosive.

“In some videos you can see someone going to the toilet, or getting undressed. I don’t think they know, because if they knew they wouldn’t be recording.” [...]

The workers describe videos where people’s bank cards are visible by mistake, and people watching porn while wearing the glasses. Clips that could trigger “enormous scandals” if they were leaked.

“There are also sex scenes filmed with the smart glasses — someone is wearing them having sex. That is why this is so extremely sensitive. There are cameras everywhere in our office, and you are not allowed to bring your own phones or any device that can record”, an employee says.

Delightful. And what a brand move for Ray-Ban and Oakley.

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