Mexico estimates of the day

Ms Sheinbaum’s government says Mexico’s murder rate has come down by 32% in the year since she took office. Analysis by The Economist confirms that the rate has fallen, though by a significantly smaller margin, 14%. Counting homicides alone misses an important part of the picture, namely the thousands of people who disappear in Mexico every year, many of whom are killed and buried in unmarked graves. A broader view of deadly crime that includes manslaughter, femicide and two-thirds of disappearances (the data for disappearances is imperfect), shows a more modest decline of 6% (see chart). Still, Mexico is on track for about 24,300 murders this year, horribly high, but well below the recent annual average of slightly over 30,000. Ms Sheinbaum is the first Mexican leader in years to push violent crime in the right direction.

The post Mexico estimates of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

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Ethical considerations and global cooperaton in transplantation, Wednesday in Cairo

It's Wednesday morning in Cairo, and here's today's conference schedule, which will include discussion of (and voting on) global cooperation in transplantation. (See my earlier post for context.) 

 

8:00 AM

08:30 AM

Opening Session of Ethical Consensus

Global Consensus on Emerging Ethical Frontiers in Transplantation:
Innovations & Global Collaboration

HALL A
Strategic Co-Leaders

(Alphabetical)

Alvin E. Roth (Stanford University, USA)

John Fung (University of Chicago, USA)

Mark Ghobrial (Methodist Hospital, Houston, USA)

Osama A Gaber (Methodist Hospital, Houston, USA)

Sandy Feng (UCSF, USA)

Valeria Mas (University of Maryland, USA)

Chairs

(Alphabetical)

Ahmed Elsabbagh (University of Pittsburgh, USA)

Medhat Askar (Baylor University, USA)

Mohamed Ghaly (Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar)

Mohamed Hussein (National Guard Hospital, KSA)

Scientific Committee

(Alphabetical)

Abdul Rahman Hakeem (King’s College Hospital, UK)

Dieter Broering (KFSHRC, KSA)

Hermien Hartog (Groningen, the Netherlands)

Hosam Hamed (Mansoura University, Egypt)

Manuel Rodriguez (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico)

Matthew Liao (Center for Bioethics, New York University, USA)

Nadey Hakim (King’s College, Dubai, UAE)

Stefan Tullius (Harvard Medical School, USA)

Varia Kirchner (Stanford University, USA)

Wojciech Polak (Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

 

Leadership of Jury Committee

(Alphabetical)

Chair: John Fung (University of Chicago, USA)

Vice-Chairs

  • Hatem Amer (Mayo Clinic, Rochester, USA)
  • Lloyd Ratner (Columbia University, USA)
  • Maye Hassaballa (Cairo University, Egypt)
08:30 AM

09:30 AM

State of Art Lecture (1, 2) HALL A
Chairpersons
(Alphabetical)
Mahmoud El-Meteini (Ain Shams University, Egypt)

Mehmet Haberal (Baskent University, Turkey)

Sandy Feng (UCSF, USA)

08:30 AM
09:00 AM
From Dr. Starzl to the Future: The Evolution of Transplantation and the Call to Continue the Journey

John Fung (University of Chicago, USA)

09:00 AM
09:30 AM
Organ Transplant Ethics: How Technoscientific Developments Challenge Us to Reaffirm the Status of the Human Body so as to Navigate Innovation in a Responsible Manner
Hub A.E. Zwart (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands)
09:30 AM

11:00 AM

 Working Group 1: HALL A
Chairpersons
(Alphabetical)
Ali Alobaidli (Chairman of UAE National transplant committee)

Hermien Hartog (Groningen, The Netherlands)

Khalid Amer (Military Medical Academy, Egypt)

Lloyd Ratner (Columbia University, NY, USA)

Thomas Müller (University Hospital Zurich, Switzerland)

09:30 AM
09:50 AM
Keynote Lecture: Xenotransplantation: Scientific Milestones, Clinical Trials, Risks, and Opportunities
Jay Fishman (MGH, USA)
09:50 AM
11:00 AM
WG1 Presentation & Panel Voting
  • Matthew Liao (Center for Bioethics, New York University, USA)
  • Hosam Hamed (Mansoura University, Egypt)
  • Daniel fogal (New York University, USA)
11:00 AM

11:30 AM

Coffee Break
11:30 AM

01:00 PM

 Working Group 2: HALL A
Chairpersons
(Alphabetical)
Daniel Maluf (University of Maryland, USA)

Karim Soliman (University of Pittsburgh, USA)

Marleen Eijkholt (Leiden University Medical Centre, Netherlands)

Refaat Kamel (Ain Shams University, Egypt)

Varia Krichner (Stanford University, USA)

11:30 AM
11:50 AM
Keynote Lecture: Smart Transplant: How AI & Machine Learning Are Shaping the Future
Dorry Segev (NYU Langone, USA)
11:50 AM
01:00 PM
WG2 Presentation & Panel Voting
  • Hub A.E. Zwart (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands)
  • Varia Krichner (Stanford University, USA)
  • Eman Elsabbagh (Duke University, USA)
  • Mohammad Alexanderani (University of Pittsburgh, USA)
01:00 PM

02:30 PM

 Working Group 3: HALL A
Chairpersons
(Alphabetical)
Ahmed Marwan (Mansoura University, Egypt)

Ashraf S Abou El Ela (Michigan, USA)

Mostafa El Shazly (Cairo University, Egypt)

Peter Abt (UPenn, USA)

Philipp Dutkowski (University Hospital Basel, Switzerland)

01:00 PM
01:20 PM
Keynote Lecture: Ischemia-Free Transplantation: A New Paradigm in Organ Preservation and Transplant Medicine
Zhiyong Guo (The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, China)
01:20 PM
02:30 PM
WG3 Presentation & Panel Voting
  • Jeffrey Pannekoek (Center for Bioethics, Cleveland Clinic, USA)
  • Abdul Rahman Hakeem (King’s College Hospital, UK)
  • Georgina Morley (Center for Bioethics, Cleveland Clinic, USA)
02:30 PM

03:30 PM

 Lunch Symposium HALL B
03:30 PM

05:00 PM

 Working Group 4: HALL A
Chairpersons
(Alphabetical)
David Thomson (Cape Town University, South Africa)

Lucrezia Furian (University Hospital of Padova, Italy)

May Hassaballa (Cairo University, Egypt)

Abidemi Omonisi (Ekiti State University, Nigeri)

Vivek Kute (IKDRC-ITS, Ahmedabad, India)

03:30 PM
03:50 PM
Keynote Lecture: Framing the Conversation: Ethical considerations at the foundation for global transplant collaboration
Marleen Eijkholt (Leiden University Medical Centre, Netherlands)
03:50 PM
05:00 PM
WG4 Presentation & Panel Voting
  • Alvin Roth (Stanford University, USA)
  • Marleen Eijkholt (Leiden University Medical Centre, Netherlands)
  • Michael Rees (University of Toledo, USA)
  • Ahmed Elsabbagh (University of Pittsburgh, USA)
  • Nikolas Stratopoulos (Leiden University Medical Centre, Netherlands)
05:00 PM

05:30 PM

Closing Session of Ethical Consensus

Global Consensus on Emerging Ethical Frontiers in Transplantation:
Innovations & Global Collaboration

HALL A
Strategic Co-Leaders

(Alphabetical)

Alvin E. Roth (Stanford University, USA)

John Fung (University of Chicago, USA)

Mark Ghobrial (Methodist Hospital, Houston, USA)

Osama A Gaber (Methodist Hospital, Houston, USA)

Sandy Feng (UCSF, USA)

Valeria Mas (University of Maryland, USA)

Chairs

(Alphabetical)

Ahmed Elsabbagh (University of Pittsburgh, USA)

Medhat Askar (Baylor University, USA)

Mohamed Ghaly (Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar)

05:10 PM
05:30 PM
State of Art Lecture (3): Reflections from a Transplant Pioneer: Ethics, Policy, and the Future of Global Collaboration
Ignazio R. Marino (Thomas Jefferson University, Italy/USA)

 

Seven Decisions

  1. Vanilla. Someone decided. Good. No further questions. We can make progress now.
  2. Educated. You ask why they decided, and they can clearly explain their reasoning. Not everyone might appreciate the decision, but they will be given the opportunity to understand.1
  3. Calculated. Not only can they explain the decision, but they have math! Wow, I’m super convinced now.
  4. Instinct. They attempt to explain their reasoning, but they say “feel” a lot. A lot. Thing is, it feels right, so you don’t press.
  5. Inspired. Now you press, and they can tell you want a clear rationale and justification, but none obviously exists. This decision is not meant to be understood; it’s meant to be appreciated for its poetry. It is 100% expected that inspired decisions are going to frustrate those seeking clarity; they are going to point at the lack of a clear explanation. “He doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing. It’s a guess.” It might be a guess, but it also might be art in the making.2 3
  6. Minimum Viable. My least favorite. Your investigation into their justification reveals that they chose a decision that was not designed to be good; it was constructed to offend the fewest humans. This is not leadership — it’s fear.
  7. Delegated. Rather than doing the minimal work of even making a minimum viable decision, they gave the decision to someone else because — and I quote — “They are more capable of making this decision.” What they are actually saying is, “I would prefer that this human deal with the weight and consequences for this decision.” The good news: at least you got a decision.

Sometimes, they don’t decide. You push, you prod, but they won’t decide. No, they didn’t delegate, no, they didn’t wing it, they just waited and waited… kind’a maybe hoping the need for this decision would vanish. Technically, deciding not to decide is a decision, and that’s a choice, but it’s not leadership.


  1. Context is what matters when understanding a decision. Who is making it? Why now? How have they decided in the past? What happened as a result of these decisions? Are they being forced to decide? Is someone demanding they decide? I could write another ten questions to help you understand the essential context surrounding this decision, but I’d miss a question essential to this specific decision. My only advice: be painfully curious when it comes to decisions. Yes, this is the introduction to this piece tucked into a footnote. Yolo. 
  2. Inspired decisions are retroactively rebranded Vanilla decisions after unexpected exceptional results appear. 
  3. If results from this type of decision are consistently unexpected, let’s call these decisions Yolo. 

Wednesday: Mortgage Applications

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index

Intentions & Actions

I had an amazing customer experience early in the experiments with chat-based interfaces. I had an international flight & I had to move it by a day. I opened a chat with KLM, clearly got an action person, said “I want to depart a day earlier,” answered a question about which departure time I wanted (“same time”), and that was it. Magic!

I’ve gotten into …

Read more

Tuesday 11 November 1662

All the morning sitting at the office, and then to dinner with my wife, and so to the office again (where a good while Mr. Bland was with me, telling me very fine things in merchandize, which, but that the trouble of my office do so cruelly hinder me, I would take some pains in) till late at night. Towards the evening I, as I have done for three or four nights, studying something of Arithmetique, which do please me well to see myself come forward. So home, to supper, and to bed.

Read the annotations

Live coverage: Blue Origin targets Nov. 12 New Glenn launch following weekend weather scrub

Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket designed for the NG-2 mission is pictured at sunset at Launch Complex 36, the evening of Nov. 8, 2025. The rocket will carry NASA’s ESCAPADE mission along with a payload demonstration for Viasat. Image: Adam Bernstein / Spaceflight Now

Blue Origin is stepping back up to the plate to take another crack at launching its 98-meter-tall (321 ft) New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Wednesday, Nov. 12.

A confluence of poor weather, an errant cruise ship in the keep out zone and a ground systems issue at the pad were roadblocks to a Sunday launch attempt. In rescheduling the mission, Blue Origin said in a social media post that it was avoiding poor weather on Monday and Tuesday, but didn’t mention the status of the ground systems issue.

The company founded by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is now targeting liftoff from Launch Complex 36 during an 87-minute window that opens at 2:50 p.m. EST (1950 UTC) on Wednesday.

Spaceflight Now will have live coverage beginning about three hours prior to liftoff.

The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a greater than 95 percent chance of liftoff during the window, citing no concerns for meteorological impacts that would prevent launch. Teams did highlight the booster recovery zone as watch item, stating that it was a “moderate” risk on a low-moderate-high scale. Space weather could also be an issue.

On Tuesday afternoon, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecast a G4 Severe Watch connected to a coronal mass ejection first detected on Sunday, Nov. 9. It noted that this is just the fourth G4 Watch issued this solar cycle, making it “very rare,” and added that impacts are expected “about midday on Nov. 12.”

“A CME is anticipated to arrive at and partially impact Earth around midday, 12 Nov; with the potential for elevated geomagnetic response and dependent upon the orientation of the embedded magnetic field, potential exists for Severe Storm levels.”

Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket designed for the NG-2 mission is pictured at sunset at Launch Complex 36, the evening of Nov. 8, 2025. The rocket will carry NASA’s ESCAPADE mission along with a payload demonstration for Viasat. Image: Adam Bernstein / Spaceflight Now

Starting at stage separation, roughly three minutes after liftoff, teams will attempt to steer the first stage booster, named ‘Never Tell Me the Odds’, towards a landing in the Atlantic on a barge, ‘Jacklyn’, which is staged about 375 miles (603.5 km) downrange of the launch pad.

Blue Origin attempted a similar landing with its first New Glenn booster, ‘So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance’, but the rocket failed to properly relight the three gimbaling BE-4 engines for the reentry burn.

If all goes well, Blue Origin will become the second private company to perform a propulsive landing an orbital class rocket. It plans to reuse its boosters for up to 25 flights initially, assuming successful landings.

The Recovery Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) pictured on Blue Origin’s landing vessel, named ‘Jacklyn,’ after founder Jeff Bezos’ mother. ROV will deploy following a booster landing and provide power, communication and pneumatic links between the booster and Jacklyn, according to Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp. Image: Blue Origin

What’s onboard?

Nestled within the New Glenn’s 7 m (23 ft) payload fairings are the twin spacecraft that makeup NASA’s Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) mission as well as a ride share communications technology demonstration from Viasat.

A little more than 33 minutes after liftoff, the two ESCAPADE satellites, Blue and Gold will deploy from a satellite adaptor called an Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (ESPA) ring. Blue separates first and then Gold about 30 seconds later.

They are being released into a highly elliptical orbit, “just shy of Earth escape velocity,” Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp said in a social media post on Nov. 9. The twins will loiter in a novel so-called “kidney bean” shaped orbit around Lagrange Point 2 about a million miles from Earth for about a year.

They will then use the Earth for a gravity assist around fall 2026 to begin a roughly 11-month journey to the Red Planet. They will arrive at Mars roughly two days apart when they will each perform a Mars insertion burn to enter into an elliptical orbit that will slowly be lowered into their target science orbit.

They will be studying Mars’ magnetosphere to learn more about how it’s been influenced by space weather over time.

The other payload onboard New Glenn from Viasat will remain fixed to the upper stage and be activated about five minutes after the deployment of the second ESCAPADE spacecraft. This is a demonstration of Viasat’s InRange launch telemetry relay solution, which is part of the company’s work under the NASA Communications Services Project.

“InRange is a specific launch telemetry data relay service designed to support launch providers with responsive, real-time data transmission during launch using Viasat’s L-band network,” a Viasat spokesperson told Spaceflight Now in a statement.

“This is a separate solution from Viasat’s high-capacity Ka-band data relay capability (i.e. Real-Time Space Relay), which is also being developed and will separately be demonstrated as part of our NASA CSP program work.”

Links 11/11/25

Links for you. Science:

New Covid virus found in wild Brazilian bats. The discovery of a ‘furin cleavage site’ suggests the mutation which helps the virus adapt to humans is naturally occurring (pour one out for the lab leak hypothesis)
Ad hoc, post hoc and intrinsic-hoc in bioinformatics
Waning immunity drives respiratory virus evolution and reinfection
The real danger to kids is RFK Jr.’s anti-vax quackery
RSV season is here. Here’s what you need to know
Mount Pleasant’s sidewalk astronomer might have to leave his home (We shouldn’t be deporting this guy, we should be giving him a scholarship.)

Other:

What It’s Like to Watch an Internet-Based Ideology Break Containment
Harrisburg’s Catholic bishop apologizes for ‘notorious symbol of hate’ on Halloween float (it’s a K-8 school, so the parents of these kids had to have been involved)
Why Even Basic A.I. Use Is So Bad for Students
James Gunn’s American Project
Top Trump Officials Are Moving Onto Military Bases
Farm-state Republicans finally reach their breaking points
Eviction By ICE? Federal immigration agents appear to have targeted Chicago tenants in “deliberate and systematic ways.” They’re still searching for answers about their landlord’s role in the raid.
Without Online Trolls, There Would Be No Donald Trump
Vaccine Skepticism Comes for Pet Owners, Too
Why Is Trump Autocracy Rising? These Dems Have an Unnerving Answer.
Trump L’œil: The White House Ballroom, MAGA Aesthetics, and the Meanings of Trump’s Newest Building Project
This tight-knit community was recovering from a cultlike leader. Then measles got in.
The web that tried to steal the presidency
Bluesky hits 40 million users, introduces ‘dislikes’ beta
Unreality
I Thought Graham Platner Was Finished. What I Saw in Maine Changed My Mind.
Chris Murphy needs blue America to wake up
Andrew Cuomo Is Going Out the Way He Came In: as a Vile Bigot
FDA limits fluoride tablets for children, stopping short of ban
Trump’s Tony Soprano Presidency Is Bleeding the Country Dry
Trump’s abortion-related cuts prompt Maine clinics to end primary care
The Soccer Mom Who Strikes Fear Into the Heart of ICE
ICE and Border Patrol’s use of tear gas injures, sickens and tests the law
Maine’s Case of Platner Fasciitis
Some South Korea firms pulled projects after Hyundai immigration raid
America doesn’t need Trump’s $40 million statue collection. We already have one that the states paid for.
Trump Throws Lavish Halloween ‘Great Gatsby’ Party On Eve Of SNAP Running Dry
The war against drugs is a war of economics that is unwinnable.
Blue State SNAP Webpages Are Giving The GOP A Taste Of Its Own Medicine
One of Boston’s two remaining strip clubs wants to move. Chinatown is leery.

The Next Financial Crisis

This is worth repeating ...

Back in 2005 I was mostly writing about the housing bubble - and the coming housing bust. But I also mentioned the possibility of a financial crisis. In early 2007, I started forecasting a recession, and by the end of 2007 the housing bust causing a financial crisis was becoming obvious.

Here is an article from the WSJ in 2007 quoting a crazy blogger: How High Will Subprime Losses Go?
Back in the U.S., the Calculated Risk blog sidestepped the colorful language and went straight for the big number: “The losses for the lenders and investors might well be over $1 trillion.
Many people thought I was crazy. But losses for lenders and financial institutions ended up over $1 trillion.

Then in 2013 I wrote that there will be another crisis someday: "Each new generation of Wall Street wizards figures out a new way to turn lead into gold, and to become wealthy while damaging the financial system. Some of these wizards are probably perfecting their financial alchemy right now."

The key for the "wizards" was to find a way around the regulatory system, and if they could use leverage, the fool's gold would eventually lead to a crisis.

By 2013 the seeds were planted, not by Wall Street wizards, but by Tech Wizards. Now the seeds have taken root (Of course, I'm talking about cryptocurrency, what Charlie Munger called financial "rat poison").

Last year, researchers at the NY Fed looked at the impact of crypto on the financial system: The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets. And they concluded: "that, to date, the contribution of digital assets to systemic risk has been limited, given that the digital ecosystem is relatively small and not a major provider of financing and payment services to the real economy."

The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system. A good example is the Tulip Bubble in the 1600s. Some people got rich, others were wiped out, but it had no impact on the financial system.

Unfortunately the current administration has embraced crypto. They are allowing it to creep into the financial system, and allowing 401K plans to hold crypto (aka future bagholders). There has been some discussion of allowing financial institutions to lend against crypto holdings - like for a mortgage.  This is mistake and increases the possibility that crypto will be the source of the next financial crisis.

A final note: CNBC should be embarrassed to have crypto prices on their website. 



Val Town 2023-2025 Retrospective

It’s the end of 2025, which means that I’m closing in on three years at Val Town. I haven’t written much about the company or what it’s really been like. The real story of companies is usually told well after years after the dust has settled. Founders usually tell a heroic story of success while they’re building.

Reading startup news really warps your perspective, especially when you’re building a startup yourself. Everyone else is getting fabulously rich! It makes me less eager to write about anything.

But I’m incurably honest and like working with people who are too. Steve, the first founder of Val Town (I joined shortly after as cofounder/CTO) is a shining example of this. He is a master of saying the truth in situations when other people are afraid to. I’ve seen it defuse tension and clear paths. It’s a big part of ‘the culture’ of the company.

So here’s some of the story so far.

Delivering on existing expectations and promises

Here’s what the Val Town interface looked like fairly early on:

Val Town user interface in mid-2023

When I initially joined, we had a prototype and a bit of hype. The interface was heavily inspired by Twitter - every time that you ran code, it would save a new ‘val’ and add it to an infinite-scrolling list.

Steve and Dan had really noticed the utter exhaustion in the world of JavaScript: runaway complexity. A lot of frameworks and infrastructure was designed for huge enterprises and was really, really bad at scaling down. Just writing a little server that does one thing should be easy, but if you do it with AWS and modern frameworks, it can be a mess of connected services and boilerplate.

Val Town scaled down to 1 + 1. You could type 1 + 1 in the text field and get 2. That’s the way it should work.

It was a breath of fresh air. And a bunch of people who encountered it even in this prototype-phase state were inspired and engaged.

The arrows marketing page

One of the pivotal moments of this stage was creating this graphic for our marketing site: the arrows graphic. It really just tied it all together: look how much power there was in this little val! And no boilerplate either. Where there otherwise is a big ritual of making something public or connecting an email API, there’s just a toggle and a few lines of code.

I kind of call this early stage, for me, the era of delivering on existing expectations and promises. The core cool idea of the product was there, but it was extremely easy to break.

Security was one of the top priorities. We weren’t going to be a SOC2 certified bank-grade platform, but we also couldn’t stay where we were. Basically, it was trivially easy to hack: we were using the vm2 NPM module to run user code. I appreciate that vm2 exists, but it really, truly, is a trap. There are so many ways to get out of its sandbox and access other people’s code and data. We had a series of embarrassing security vulnerabilities.

For example: we supported web handlers so you could easily implement a little server endpoint, and the API for this was based on express, the Node.js server framework. You got a request object and response object, from express, and in this case they were literally the same as our server’s objects. Unfortunately, there’s a method response.download(path: string) which sends an arbitrary file from your server to the internet. You can see how this one ends: not ideal.

So, we had to deliver on a basic level of security. Thankfully, in the way that it sometimes does, the road rose to meet us. The right technology appeared just in time: Deno. Deno’s sandboxing made it possible to run people’s code securely without having to build a mess of Kubernetes and Docker sandbox optimizations. It delivered being secure, fast, and simple to implement: we haven’t identified a single security bug caused by Deno.

That said, the context around JavaScript runtimes has been tough. Node.js is still dominant and Bun has attracted most of the attention as an alternative, with Deno in a distant third place, vibes-wise. The three are frustratingly incompatible - Bun keeps adding built-ins like an S3 client which would have seemed unthinkable in the recent past. Node added an SQLite client in 22. Contrary to what I hoped in 2022, JavaScript has gotten more splintered and inconsistent as an ecosystem.

Stability was the other problem. The application was going down constantly for a number of reasons, but most of all was the database, which was Supabase. I wrote about switching away from Supabase, which they responded to in a pretty classy way, and I think they’ve since improved. But Render has been a huge step up in maintainability and maturity for how we host Val Town.

Adding Max was a big advance in our devops-chops too: he was not only able to but excited to work on the hard server capacity and performance problems. We quietly made a bunch of big improvements like allowing vals to stay alive after serving requests - before that, every run was a cold start.

What to do about AI

Townie

Townie, the Val Town chatbot, in early 2024

Believe it or not, but in early 2023, there were startups that didn’t say “AI” on the front page of their marketing websites. The last few years have been a dizzying shift in priorities and vibes, which I have had mixed feelings about that I’ve written about a lot.

At some point it became imperative to figure out what Val Town was supposed to do about all that. Writing code is undeniably one of the sweet spots of what LLMs can do, and over the last few years the fastest-growing most hyped startups have emerged from that ability.

This is where JP Posma comes in. He was Steve’s cofounder at a previous startup, Zaplib, and was our ‘summer intern’ - the quotes because he’s hilariously overqualified for that title. He injected some AI-abilities into Val Town, both RAG-powered search and he wrote the first version of Townie, a chatbot that is able to write code.

Townie has been really interesting. Basically it lets you write vals (our word for apps) with plain English. This development happened around the same time as a lot of the ‘vibe-coding’ applications, like Bolt and Lovable. But Townie was attached to a platform that runs code and has community elements and a lot more. It’s an entry point to the rest of the product, while a lot of other vibe-coding tools were the core product that would eventually expand to include stuff like what Val Town provides.

Ethan Ding has written a few things about this: it’s maybe preferable to sell compute instead of being the frontend for LLM-vibe-coding. But that’s sort of a long-run prediction about where value accrues rather than an observation about what companies are getting hype and funding in the present.

Vibe coding companies

There are way too many companies providing vibe-coding tools without having a moat or even a pathway to positive margins. But having made a vibe-coding tool, I completely see why: it makes charts look amazing. Townie was a huge growth driver for a while, and a lot of people were hearing about Townie first, and only later realizing that Val Town could run code, act as a lightweight GitHub alternative, and power a community.

Unlike a lot of AI startups, we didn’t burn a ton of money running Townie. We did have negative margins on it, but to the tune of a few thousand dollars a month during the most costly months.

Introducing a pro plan made it profitable pretty quickly and today Townie is pay-as-you-go, so it doesn’t really burn money at all. But on the flip side, we learned a lot about the users of vibe-coding tools. In particular, they use the tools a lot, and they really don’t want to pay for them. This kind of makes sense: vibe-coding actual completed apps without ever dropping down to write or read code is zeno’s paradox: every prompt gets you halfway there, so you inch closer and closer but never really get to your destination.

So you end up chatting for eight hours, typically getting angrier and angrier, and using a lot of tokens. This would be great for business in theory, but in practice it doesn’t work for obvious reasons: people like to pay for results, not the process. Vibe-coding is a tough industry - it’s simultaneously one of the most expensive products to run, and one of the most flighty and cost-sensitive user-bases I’ve encountered.

So AI has been complicated. On one hand, it’s amazing for growth and obviously has spawned wildly successful startups. On the other, it can be a victim of its own expectations: every company seems to promise perfect applications generated from a single prompt and that just isn’t the reality. And that results in practically every tool falling short of those expectations and thus getting the rough end of user sentiment.

We’re about to launch MCP support, which will make it possible to use Val Town via existing LLM interfaces like Claude Code. It’s a lot better than previous efforts - more powerful and flexible, plus it requires us to reinvent less of the wheel. The churn in the ‘state of the art’ feels tremendous: first we had tool-calling, then MCPs, then tool calling writing code to call MCPs: it’s hard to tell if this is fast progress or just churn.

As a business

When is a company supposed to make money? It’s a question that I’ve thought about a lot. When I was running a bootstrapped startup, the answer was obviously as soon as possible, because I’d like to stop paying my rent from my bank account. Venture funding lets you put that off for a while, sometimes a very long while, and then when companies start making real revenue they at best achieve break-even. There are tax and finance reasons for all of this – I don’t make the rules!

Anyway, Val Town is far from break-even. But that’s the goal for 2026, and it’s optimistically possible.

One thing I’ve thought for a long time is that people building startups are building complicated machines. They carry out a bunch of functions, maybe they proofread your documents or produce widgets, or whatever, but the machine also has a button on it that says “make money.” And everything kind of relates to that button as you’re building it, but you don’t really press it.

The nightmare is if the rest of the machine works, you press the button, and it doesn’t do anything. You’ve built something useful but not valuable. This hearkens back to the last section about AI: you can get a lot of people using the platform, but if you ask them for money and they’re mostly teenagers or hobbyists, they’re not going to open their wallets. They might not even have wallets.

So we pressed the button. It kind of works.

But what I’ve learned is that making revenue is a lot like engineering: it requires a lot of attempts, testing, and hard work. It’s not something that just results from a good product. Here’s where I really saw Charmaine and Steve at work, on calls, making it happen.

The angle right now is to sell tools for ‘Go To Market’ - stuff like capturing user signups of your website, figuring out which users are from interesting companies or have interesting use-cases, and forwarding that to Slack, pushing it to dashboards, and generally making the sales pipeline work. It’s something Val Town can do really well: most other tools for this kind of task have some sort of limit in how complicated and custom they can get, and Val Town doesn’t.

Expanding and managing the complexity

Product-wise, the big thing about Val Town that has evolved is that it can do more stuff and it’s more normal. When we started out, a Val was a single JavaScript expression - this was part of what made Val Town scale down so beautifully and be so minimal, but it was painfully limited. Basically people would type into the text box

const x = 10;
function hi() {};
console.log(1);

And we couldn’t handle that at all: if you ran the Val did it run that function? Export the x variable? It was magic but too confusing. The other tricky niche choice was that we had a custom import syntax like this:

@tmcw.helper(10);

In which @tmcw.helper was the name of another val and this would automatically import and use it. Extremely slick but really tricky to build off of because this was non-standard syntax, and it overlapped with the proposed syntax for decorators in JavaScript. Boy, I do not love decorators: they have been under development for basically a decade and haven’t landed, just hogging up this part of the unicode plane.

But regardless this syntax wasn’t worth it. I have some experience with this problem and have landed squarely on the side of normality is good.

So, in October 2023, we ditched it, adopted standard ESM import syntax, and became normal. This is was a big technical undertaking, in large part because we tried to keep all existing code running by migrating it. Thankfully JavaScript has a very rich ecosystem of tools that can parse & produce code and manipulate syntax trees, but it was still a big, dramatic shift.

This is one of the core tensions of Val Town as well as practically every startup: where do you spend your user-facing innovation energy?

I’m a follower of the use boring technology movement when it comes to how products are built: Val Town intentionally uses some boring established parts like Postgres and React Router, but what about when it comes to the product itself? I’ve learned the hard way that most of what people call intuition is really familiarity: it’s good when an interface behaves like other interfaces. A product that has ten new concepts and a bunch of new UI paradigms is going to be hard to learn and probably will lose out to one that follows some familiar patterns.

Moving to standard JavaScript made Val Town more learnable for a lot of people while also removing some of its innovation. Now you can copy code into & out of Val Town without having to adjust it. LLMs can write code that targets Val Town without knowing everything about its quirks. It’s good to go with the flow when it comes to syntax.

Hiring and the team

Office Sign

Val Town has an office. I feel like COVID made everything remote by default and the lower-COVID environment that we now inhabit (it’s still not gone!) has led to a swing-back, but the company was founded in the latter era and has never been remote. So, we work from home roughly every other Friday.

This means that we basically try to hire people in New York. It hasn’t been too hard in the past. About 6% of America lives in the New York City metro area and the Northeast captures about 23% of venture funding, so there are lots of people who live here or want to.

Stuff on the window sill in the office

Here’s something hard to publish: we’re currently at three people. It was five pretty recently. Charmaine got poached by Anthropic where she’ll definitely kick ass, and Max is now at Cloudflare where he’s writing C++, which will be even more intimidating than his chess ranking. The company’s really weirdly good at people leaving: we had parties and everyone exchanges hand-written cards. How people handle hard things says a lot.

But those three are pretty rad: Jackson was a personal hero of mine before we hired him (he still is). He’s one of the best designers I’ve worked with, and an incredibly good engineer to boot. He’s worked at a bunch of startups you’ve heard of, had a DJ career, gotten to the highest echelons of tech without acquiring an ego. He recently beat me to the top spot in our GitHub repo’s lines-changed statistic.

Steve has what it takes for this job: grit, optimism, curiosity. The job of founding a company and being a CEO is a different thing every few months - selling, hiring, managing, promoting. Val Town is a very developer-consumer oriented product and that kind of thing requires a ton of promotion. Steve has done so much, in podcasts, spreading the word in person, writing, talking to customers. He has really put everything into this. A lot of the voice and the attitude of the company flows down from the founder, and Steve is that.

Did I mention that we’re hiring?

In particular, for someone to be a customer-facing technical promoter type - now called a “GTM” hire. Basically, who can write a bit of code but has the attitude of someone in sales. Who can see potential and handle rejection. Not necessarily the world’s best programmer, but who can probably code, and definitely someone who can write. Blogging and writing online is a huge green flag for this position.

And the other role that we really need is an “application engineer.” These terms keep shifting, so if full-stack engineer means more, sure, that too. Basically someone who can write code across boundaries. This is more or less what Jackson and I do - writing queries, frontend code, fixing servers, the whole deal. Yeah, it sounds like a lot but this is how all small companies operate, and I’ve made a lot of decisions to make this possible: we’ve avoided complexity like the plague in Val Town’s stack, so it should all be learnable. I’ve written a bunch of documentation for everything, and constantly tried to keep the codebase clean.

Sidenote, but even though I think that the codebase is kind of messy, I’ve heard from very good engineers (even the aforementioned JP Posma) that it’s one of the neatest and most rational codebases they’ve seen. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t, see for yourself!

What we’re really looking for in hires

Tech hiring has been broken the whole time I’ve been in the industry, for reasons that would take a whole extra article to ponder. But one thing that makes it hard is vagueness, both on the part of applicants and companies. I get it - cast a wide net, don’t put people off. But I can say that:

  • For the GTM position, you should be able to write for the internet. This can be harder than it looks: there are basically three types of writing: academic, corporate, and internet, and they are incompatible.
  • You should also be kind of entrepreneurial: which means optimistic, resilient, and opportunistic.
  • For the application engineering role, you should be a good engineer who understands the code you write and is good at both writing and reading code. Using LLM tools is great, but relying on them exclusively is a dealbreaker. LLMs are not that good at writing code.

What the job is like

The company’s pretty low drama. Our office is super nice. We work hard but not 996. We haven’t had dinner in the office. But we all do use PagerDuty so when the servers go down, we wake up and it sucks. Thankfully the servers go down less than they used to.

We all get paid the same: $175k. Lower than FAANG, but pretty livable for Brooklyn. Both of the jobs listed - the Product Engineer, and Growth Engineer - are set at 1% equity. $175k is kind of high-average for where we’re at, but 1% in my opinion is pretty damn good. Startups say that equity is “meaningful” at all kinds of numbers but it’s definitely meaningful at that one. If Val Town really succeeds, you can get pretty rich off of that.

Of course, will it succeed? It’s something I think about all the time. I was born to ruminate. We have a lot going for us, and a real runway to make things happen. Some of the charts in our last investor update looked great. Some days felt amazing. Other days were a slog. But it’s a good team, with a real shot of making it.

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Republicans Are Damaged by Their Own Cruelty

Food banks, pantries see surge in demand after SNAP benefits halted - ABC  News

People who lost SNAP benefits at a food bank

Like almost all progressives, I was infuriated and disheartened by Senate Democrats’ cave on the shutdown Sunday. The party won stunning election victories Tuesday — and its leaders responded with yet another preemptive surrender? (Chuck Schumer may have voted no, but he didn’t manage, and may not even have tried, to prevent defections.)

Yet while the immediate politics displayed Democratic tactical weakness, the larger story highlighted a different kind of weakness on the part of Donald Trump and MAGA as a whole — namely, their innate cruelty. They have a visceral dislike for policies that do anything to help the less fortunate, and can’t even bring themselves to be cynical, to help Americans temporarily while they consolidate power.

Consider the grounds on which the shutdown fight took place. Democrats made it about the enhanced subsidies that have kept premiums for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act fairly reasonable for millions of Americans — Americans who are now facing huge premium hikes that will create intense financial distress and force many to go uninsured.

Before the big cave, Democrats proposed a deal in which they would provide the votes to reopen the government in return for a one-year extension of those enhanced benefits. Republicans should have jumped at this deal. It’s true that Republicans are determined to destroy much of the social safety net. The One Big Beautiful Bill will impose savage cuts in Medicaid and food stamps. But these big cuts are set to happen after the midterm elections.

Drastically increasing health care costs at the beginning of 2026, causing millions to lose insurance, certainly looks like a massive political blunder. My guess is that it doesn’t reflect a considered strategy. Instead, Republicans just stumbled into this because nobody in a position of power within the party understood how the ACA works.

And polling suggests overwhelming public support for extending the enhanced subsidies: 74 percent overall, including half of Republicans:

A graph of support for extending enhanced aca

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: KFF

So Republicans should have been eager for a chance to postpone the pain. Instead, by rejecting Democratic proposals, Republicans have placed the onus for soaring premiums squarely on themselves.

But the thought of doing something decent, even cynically and temporarily, doesn’t seem to have crossed Republican minds. John Thune, the Republican Senate majority leader, immediately declared the proposed deal a “nonstarter,” insisting that his party would only negotiate about healthcare after the government is reopened — which everyone understands means that Republicans will agree to nothing.

Why reject a deal that could have protected Republicans from their own mistakes? Part of the answer is sheer ignorance. Here was Trump’s response:

A screenshot of a social media post

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Substance aside, think about the idiocy of the timing here. The health insurance crisis is happening right now, as Americans open letters from their insurers and discover that they are facing huge increases — more than 100 percent on average, much more in many cases — in the cost of coverage beginning in just a few weeks. This is not exactly the time to propose immediately scrapping our existing health care system, replacing it with … something.

And a vague promise to deal with an immediate crisis by totally revamping healthcare is especially lacking in credibility coming from a man who has been promising, and failing, to deliver a superior alternative to Obamacare for around 9 years.

On the substance, Trump’s post makes it clear that after all this time he still has no idea how health care works. We’ve always known that he didn’t and doesn’t understand Obamacare, and why it’s hard to come up with a better system other than single-payer health insurance. But it’s now clear that he doesn’t even understand why healthcare relies on insurance, why we can’t pay medical expenses out of pocket. Hint: You never know if or when you’ll need extremely expensive treatment, but should the need arise, only the ultra-wealthy can come up with the necessary cash.

Oh, and it’s especially rich to see Trump take a break from boasting about his new gold-and-marble bathrooms to pretend to hate “money sucking Insurance Companies.”

Anyway, Trump’s vague ideas are, as Thune would say, a nonstarter. But why not punt, postponing the health affordability crisis by agreeing to a temporary extension of the ACA subsidies?

The answer, I believe, is that doing so would involve giving help to people who need it — and that’s something that, at a deep psychological level, MAGA can’t bring itself to do.

Health care isn’t the only area in which Trump and company’s cruelty and lack of compassion are becoming major political liabilities.

The Trump administration rushed to cut off SNAP (food stamps) as soon as the government shut down, even though there was money available to pay those benefits — and the administration both defied court orders to pay and tried to stop states from helping the hungry.

Going beyond government programs, most Americans are very unhappy about the state of the economy. They see high grocery prices and a very weak job market. Consumers’ assessment of the current state of the economy is worse now than it was at the peak of the 2021-22 inflation surge, or the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis:

A graph of a graph showing the number of the company's sales

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

The rational thing for Trump to do would be to say “I feel your pain,” while blaming the previous administration and promising that things will get better soon. But he can’t even fake empathy. Instead, he keeps insisting that things are great, in particular that “groceries are way down.”

This is factually false. More important from a political point of view, it contradicts what people — even Republican partisans — are seeing in their own lives. Here’s what Americans think about grocery inflation, according to a recent Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll:

A graph of a bar chart

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source

Has there ever been a case in which “Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?” was an effective political strategy? Last Tuesday’s elections clearly showed that it isn’t working now. But Trump and his minions seem unable to try anything different.

Let me add that MAGA still seems to believe that scenes of masked ICE agents beating up women and senior citizens work to their political advantage. Either that, or they just can’t help themselves.

The political moral is that the humiliating cave over the shutdown isn’t the end of the story. Democrats can and should keep hammering Trump and his party over their indifference to the suffering of ordinary Americans. They need to make sure both that Americans know who’s responsible for surging premiums now and that Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill will lead to savage cuts in both Medicaid and food stamps after the midterms.

MAGA can’t help being cruel. It can’t even pretend to care about other people’s suffering. And Democrats should take full advantage of this pathology.

MUSICAL CODA

The lyrics seem appropriate

Quoting Netflix

Netflix asks partners to consider the following guiding principles before leveraging GenAI in any creative workflow: 

  1. The outputs do not replicate or substantially recreate identifiable characteristics of unowned or copyrighted material, or infringe any copyright-protected works
  2. The generative tools used do not store, reuse, or train on production data inputs or outputs.
  3. Where possible, generative tools are used in an enterprise-secured environment to safeguard inputs.
  4. Generated material is temporary and not part of the final deliverables.
  5. GenAI is not used to replace or generate new talent performances or union-covered work without consent.

[...] If you answer "no" or "unsure" to any of these principles, escalate to your Netflix contact for more guidance before proceeding, as written approval may be required.

Netflix, Using Generative AI in Content Production

Tags: ai-ethics, netflix, ai, generative-ai

Exclusive: Altman And Masa Back a 27-Year-Old's Plan to Build a New Bell Labs Ultra

There’s very little about Louis Andre on the internet, which will stand out as strange in a few paragraphs’ time.

I can tell you that he’s 27 years old and grew up in Europe. He has a French mother and a father who hails from Madagascar. Andre began studying neuroscience and computer science at University College London before embarking on a scientific odyssey, hopping to labs at Princeton and Stanford and a Parkinson’s disease-related biotech startup backed by Sergey Brin.

Those who know Andre say he’s smart and well-liked and that he did good research. None of his projects, though, were obvious blockbusters. For the most part, Andre has shuffled about behind the scenes, living off research grants and brief stints at small companies.

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As of Monday, however, Andre will find himself at the center of much attention. He’s revealing a new company called Episteme that’s backed by Sam Altman, Masayoshi Son and a host of other (as of yet) undisclosed investors, as Core Memory can report exclusively. Based in San Francisco, Episteme is an effort to create a modern-day Bell Labs or Xerox PARC in that it hopes to attract the world’s top scientists and have them work on a wide range of potential breakthrough products.

“We want to step in and be able to support individuals who are really thoughtful and want to work on meaningful ideas but feel stuck or don’t see a future in existing systems,” said Andre, who is the CEO of Episteme. “There are a lot of brilliant people who are disillusioned by the current way of doing science.”

The origin story of Episteme goes back a few years to a conversation Andre had with Altman. The two men were discussing well-known frustrations with the science and research landscape. Many of the world’s brightest minds in academia spend most of their time writing grants, managing bureaucratic overhead and publishing papers instead of pursuing their real work. Meanwhile, venture-backed start-ups often come with near-term financial pressures that do not give the biggest, riskiest ideas the needed runway to flourish. “Sam and I were like, ‘We should do something about this,’” said Andre. “We should try and do something different.”

Andre and Altman in the best handout photo they were able to provide on short notice

The plan they came up with centers on giving researchers a healthy paycheck along with lab resources and a chance to own shares in Episteme. In other words, the scientists can do away with fundraising pressures and grant writing and spend most of their time on research.

In addition, Episteme wants to help the researchers turn their ideas into blockbuster products. The company will surround the scientists with people to help deal with intellectual property concerns, tax issues, hiring and other day-to-day support functions. It has also brought on key hires from places like the Gates Foundation and the Department of Energy to help shape the path from research to product.

Corporate research centers like Bell Labs and Xerox PARC have a near mythical reputation. Bell Labs birthed the transistor, the laser, information theory, the Unix operating system, cellular technology and on and on. The technology created at PARC during the 1970s remains the foundation of a great deal of PC- and Internet-era computing.

The model they set was one where the research arm of a large company had relative freedom to pursue big, risky ideas. The scientists were shielded from upper management to a degree and did not have to bow to their companies’ core businesses and profit concerns.

The tech industry and Silicon Valley embraced this model well into the 1990s and the early 2000s. IBM had labs all over the country, and its Almaden Research Center in San Jose was a particularly glorious place. In a building nestled in the countryside, scientists were free to do foundational research. The hope was always that they would hit on a big breakthrough that would lead to a new business for IBM, but IBM also took pride in pure scientific achievement and the accomplishments of its staff.

IBM’s Almaden Research Center where scientists ended up working for the services division and much sadness was felt throughout the valley

Sun Microsystems, Intel, Hewlett-Packard and others also had famed research labs. They would annually bring reporters like me in to hear from their scientists and look over their breakthroughs. Google’s X has been the most contemporary attempt at replicating these older labs – with mixed success.

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Cut to 2025, however, and many of these labs are gone or are a shadow of their former selves. The need to placate shareholders quarter-to-quarter has often quashed management’s desire to support free-wheeling, expensive research arms. Many companies have also chosen to rely on Silicon Valley’s vibrant start-ups and acquire their innovations instead of building them in-house.

It’s in bio-tech where billionaire-backed, open-ended research organizations have been more prominent. Howard Hughes Medical Institute and the Whitehead Institute are classic examples of organizations meant to give scientists relative ideological and fiscal freedom for their research. More recently, the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, the Arc Institute and the Allen Institutes have managed to pull top scientists out of academia and into their labs and have produced quite stunning results.

Episteme’s pitch is more wide-ranging and open than a corporate lab or a bio-tech research hub. The company wants to attract top minds from a variety of fields and has no central objective or area that it’s pushing people to pursue.

“It’s a broad range of disciplines,” said Priyamvada Natarajan, the chair of the Department of Astronomy at Yale and an advisor to Episteme. “It’s AI, energy, materials, novel battery systems and new kinds of superconductors. It’s inspired by Bell Labs or Xerox PARC but adapted for today’s scientific milieu. I think that’s what makes it a new kind of accelerator.”

The inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs. William Shockley (middle) left Bell Labs for Palo Alto to take care of his mother and then created a transistor start-up in Mountain View. He then alienated his best engineers and gave birth to the semiconductor industry in the process

Andre said the Episteme team has identified about 2,400 researchers it would like to try and recruit. The company, though, is starting with 15 scientists in fields like energy, computation and neuroscience. This original group will work out of a facility in San Francisco, although Andre hopes to create multiple Episteme offices worldwide.

“We assess three, key things,” Andre said. “One is the scientific substance of their work. The second is their technical and execution abilities. And the third, which is perhaps the most important, is their theory of change. We want people who have a deep personal motivation and a certain idea of what the world might look like in the future.”

These types of investor-led research centers can come with major drawbacks. Quite often, the funders lose interest in the projects and pull their money. Just last week, reports hit that the much-ballyhooed Arena BioWorks was winding down its operations after just two years, despite $500 million in backing from the likes of Steve Pagliuca and Michael Dell. And, quite often, scientists leave academia for supposedly comfier confines only to find that their backers want to see quick results.

Both Andre and Altman confirmed that Episteme most certainly has commercial aspirations. The researchers will be judged via regular assessments, and the hope is that products produced by the scientists make Episteme self-sustaining. That said, they both also emphasized a desire to give the researchers as much freedom and time as possible. “I would put minimal pressure on them,” Altman said. “I think these things are ready when they are ready. Sometimes a project takes two months and sometimes it takes ten years. Louis’s vision is aligned with my own on what it takes to build a long-term research organization.”

Altman declined to disclose how much money he’s put into Episteme, and Andre declined to reveal how much funding he’s raised to date. It’s fair to say that Episteme does not fall into one of Altman’s mega bets in the spirit of Helion, Retro Bio and World. Andre said there are other wealthy backers beyond Altman and Masa who have agreed to invest in Episteme under the assumption that they might not see returns for many years.

To even flirt with the idea of making something as prolific as Bell Labs or Xerox PARC in their heydays can come off as hyperbolic. Still, it’s a good moment to take a stab at such an endeavor.

Having a cig and talking about big ideas on beanbags at Xerox PARC

The Trump administration’s cuts to scientific research and battles with a handful of prestigious universities have had devastating effects on academia. Lab funding has been curtailed. Job openings have vanished. “The uncertainty is the big thing right now,” said Natarajan. “I don’t know what to tell my early career people, my young postdocs. It’s just not clear what the budgets will be for research.”

Even people who abhor what has happened to the sciences will often concede that university and government lab bureaucracy has become far too onerous. Huge amounts of money meant to go towards research has been consumed by university overhead.

If a new research center can appear that offers more security and more efficiency, it really could have a chance at attracting the world’s top minds. “It’s particularly timely to offer this type of alternative,” Natarajan said.

China, of course, looms as well. Over the past few years, Chinese universities have turned the country into a science superpower. This is potentially terrible news for the US, which has ceded manufacturing and huge swaths of hardware innovation to its rival. China is making steady gains on the US in terms of software and artificial intelligence technology and is also becoming a major bio-tech force. The last thing the U.S. needs is a massive scientific self-own. Anything that course corrects here would be helpful.

Andre hopes that Episteme could help unlock a flood of innovation in key areas and revive the US’s fortunes. “Science is not bottlenecked by the availability of talent,” he said. “It’s bottlenecked by the lack of operationalization and business rigor to actually convert science into concrete applications that society can use. Our goal is to build a third way distinct from academia and distinct from industry where brilliant scientists can pursue their own ideas without having to become entrepreneurs or grant writers.”

One of the initial researchers to join Episteme is Ben Angulo, who is completing his PhD at Harvard’s famed Church Lab and will open his own lab at the new company in early 2026. Without going into exact detail, Angulo said his research will “be broadly focused on gene and cell therapies. Hopefully, ones that can cure human diseases.”

Angulo, 36, had a number of other post-Harvard opportunities but said the choice to go on the Episteme adventure was a relatively easy one.

“In academia there are promising programs being prematurely cut,” Angulo said. “And, if I were to take my research to a start-up, I’d have a very tight set of timelines to deliver on that don’t always align with how research goes.”

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Angulo worked alongside Andre at OccamzRazor, the Brin-backed bio-tech start-up. He complimented Andre’s intellect and idealism. Andre’s approach to Episteme – and the name of the company – can be traced back to his love of literature and philosophy. He’s billing Episteme as a contemporary approach to the theory of knowledge and thinks he can fix a misallocation of capital and talent, which is a lofty quest.

“To be perfectly blunt, I think it had to be a younger person to do this,” Angulo said of Andre. “Louis has had exposure to industry and start-ups, but I don’t think he’s been biased yet in how these organizations run.”

Episteme obviously arrives with the usual Silicon Valley fantastical trappings. It’s going to scour the world and handpick bright, unconventional minds. It’s going to bring people from different disciplines together and hope they feed off each other’s ideas. It’s going to provide the researchers with all they could ever hope for and perhaps make them rich in the process. Bell Labs: Only Better Or Bust.

“Some people would say it sounds really idealistic,” Andre said. “I think that’s good. This is a world where things tend be uncertain and unpredictable, and it’s important to maintain a healthy dose of idealism.”

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Share Your Picks for the Best Movies, TV Series, Books & Music of 2025

It will soon be the time of year for making lists. And I’m not talking Santa Claus and his annual survey of the naughty and nice.

I’m focused instead on the best-of-year lists. I’ll share my own guide to the 100 best recordings of 2025 in a few weeks (available to premium subscribers). But I also want to hear about your favorite creative works of the year.


Please support my work by taking out a premium subscription (just $6 per month).

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That’s the theme of today’s open mic thread. Tell us in the comments about the best music, films, TV series, and books of the year.

But, please, do NOT use this invitation to promote your own work. I will give you an opportunity to do that in the future.

We’ve done this a few times in the past, and I always walk away from it with a long list of things to check out. So I’m eager to hear what you have to say today.

Neutron rocket’s debut slips into mid-2026 as company seeks success from the start

During an earnings call on Monday, Rocket Lab chief executive Peter Beck announced that the company’s medium-lift launch vehicle, Neutron, would not launch this year.

For anyone with the slightest understanding of the challenges involved in bringing a new rocket to the launch pad, as well as a calendar, the delay does not come as a surprise. Although Rocket Lab had been holding onto the possibility of launching Neutron this year publicly, it has been clear for months that a slip into 2026 was inevitable.

According to Beck, speaking during a third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the new timeline has the company bringing Neutron to Launch Complex 2 at Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia during the first quarter of next year. The first launch is scheduled to occur “thereafter,” according to the company’s plans.

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Tuesday assorted links

1. “Gambling revenues account for over 1% of GDP in Australia and South Africa, meaningfully higher as a share of GDP than in New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States.

2. Road network of the Roman empire.

3. NIMBYs will pay to keep low income people away.  Job market paper from Helena Pedrotti of NYU.

4. Kennedy Center update (NYT).  And the Washington National Opera might leave the Kennedy Center.

5. Decoupling dollar and Treasury privilege.

6. In a mock trial, the AIs acquit a teen who was ruled guilty by the judge.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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A death in the family

The past few weeks has been the longest gap in my blogging since I began TheMoneyIllusion 16 years ago. I put up a few posts in October, but they were all written before I left for Europe at the end of September. This will be a mostly personal post about my last few months, but I will tack on a few public policy recommendations at the end.

In late August, I found out that my younger brother had stage 4 cancer. We’ve always been pretty close, and I went out to Wisconsin for nine days to provide him a bit of a moral support. Unfortunately, my wife and I had booked three-week European vacation for late September. But he had decided to do chemo and there was an expectation that this would extend his life for at least six months. It did not.

We spent a week on the French Riviera, then eight days driving around Provence, and then seven days in Madrid. I won’t do a long travelogue as these areas are pretty well known, rather I’ll just make a few comments:

  1. While in France, I kept thinking back to my trip to Japan in 2024. How would I compare the two countries, and also the US? Here’s what I came up with:

    a. Japan is a country that excels at perfection and courtesy.

    b. France is a country that excels at beauty and style.

    c. The USA excels at material abundance and elbow room.

  2. In Madrid, I focused my attention on the Prado, a museum that I frequently discuss in this blog. Commenters occasionally ask me what books they should read to better understand art. To me, the Prado is the best place to get an art education. I’ll do a separate post on this museum.

As is almost always the case, part of the Prado was closed for remodeling. The same was true for each of my other three visits, dating back to 1986. Is it just me, or does traveling in Spain involve more “glitches” than traveling in France? I don’t recall so many hassles in my previous visits to Spain, but Madrid now seems to be bursting at the seams.

Near the end of the trip I caught a cold, and at roughly the same time I found out my brother was about to go into hospice. I returned California and immediately turned around and went back to Wisconsin for two weeks. His partner is an amazing woman, and she was taking care of him at home—not easy when a 6’4” man is in that condition. She told me that he had refused her suggestion that he tell me about his deteriorating health, as he didn’t want to ruin my vacation. He was always an extremely unselfish person.

Mark’s life was kind of unusual (as was my sister’s—she passed away in 2021.) In some respects his life was quite simple. He lived almost his entire life near Madison, and never had much of a conventional career. He became quite ill in 1991, and never fully recovered. At that point he stopped working as a bartender and began restoring antique coin operated machines out of his house. For several decades he became a bit of a loner. Twenty years later, he met a wonderful woman who shared his interest in antiques.

Despite my brother’s lack of success at making lots of money I often envied him, especially when I was bogged down grading stacks of exams. I imagined him on one treasure hunt after another, finding hidden gems in all sorts of obscure places. I had that experience a few times with collectable old posters, and I know that the thrill of a successful find goes far beyond the amount of profit one can earn.

I recall a scene in a film where an art expert scoured the French countryside during the late 1800s, looking for undiscovered masterpieces. Once, after he found a special painting, his friend congratulated him for the profit he was about to earn. He replied, “I do not collect to sell, I sell to collect.” My brother was like that—he only sold as much as necessary to buy the pieces that he really wished to own.

Eventually, he bought a much larger “house” that was actually an old Ford dealership made out of brick. He branched out into all sorts of antiques, but always liked the coin-ops best. Mark was a highly skilled craftsman, and once gave me a 1885 barber’s chair with mauve velvet seats, an oak frame and nickel plated legs that he had beautifully restored. A few years back, his house was featured on the popular TV show “American Pickers”. (The second half of this episode.) His friends in the business described him as a “pickers picker”, and he was almost universally liked and respected by the people in his field.

It is difficult to describe my brother’s house. There was 5000 sq. feet of space, all on one floor. Inside, it was often fairly dark and it almost felt like you were outdoors. There was not much heat, even in cold Wisconsin winters. Here and there were old storefronts or movie marquees. Everywhere you looked you saw something unexpected, but the overall arrangement sort of made sense—the entire ensemble was a work of folk art. This is merely one part of the collection:

Out in California, I have very few family pictures. After my brother died I came across an extensive collections of old family pictures, many of which I’d never seen. One (from 1957) showed my parents, some aunts and uncles, and my dad’s parents. Only one person in the picture (my mom) is still alive:

My grandfather was a journalism professor in Madison, his brother was an economics professor specializing in China at SUNY Buffalo, while my dad’s brother was a journalist. So maybe that’s where I got my blogging gene from.

More surprising is another picture of the younger generation on my dad’s side of the family, taken at the same time. Only me (upper left) and one of my cousins in the picture remain alive, as most died when in their 50s or 60s. (My brother and another (still living) cousin would not be born until a year later). If I recently seem morbidly obsessed with aging, this family history may explain why.

The title of this post is borrowed from volume one of Knausgaard’s My Struggle. He brilliantly describes the uncanny feeling of seeing animate life transition to inanimate life. I wonder if this confusion reflects that fact that even fairly rational people like me instinctively see life as being supernatural, and our minds have trouble seeing a loved one gradually lose the spark of life.

Another part of Knausgaard’s book exhaustively described a week he spent cleaning his father’s home after he passed away. I was reminded of this narrative as I also spent a week helping to tidy up the property, in my case in preparation for a celebration of life. We thought it appropriate to hold the event at his home, as the house represented his life’s work. I recall that the great British architect Christopher Wren is buried in a simple grave in St Paul’s cathedral, with the Latin phrase “Lector, si monumentum requiris, circumspice”, which roughly translates as, “Reader, if you seek his monument, look around you,”

The post’s subtitle requires some explanation. The Royal Tenenbaums is one of my favorite films, partly because it reminds me of my own family. To be clear, we have quite different personalities (I’d like to think we are nicer), but our family is a bit eccentric in a similar way. Both my brother and sister were downwardly mobile in a conventional career sense, but both had rich internal lives. And as in the Wes Anderson film, we had a family friend that was almost like another sibling. Indeed, after my brother died my friend drove out to the small town at 2 AM and didn’t sleep all night. (I was so doped up I didn’t get there until 3 am, from a nearby hotel.)

I always thought it amusing that in three generations the Sumners went from a college professor at the UW, to two parents who were college grads, to two siblings with little or no college. My sister dropped out after her junior year of high school and married a Mexican guy that she met on a school field trip. And she was viewed as the smart one when we were children. At Bentley, I had colleagues that went in the opposite direction, growing up in blue collar families and becoming professors.

But why not “The Royal Sumners”? In September, I discovered that when our great great grandfather left Britain around 1850, his surname was “Clare”. The family lived in a grand house in Ibstock, Leicestershire, but somehow ran up large debts. They disappeared without a trace, and switched to Sumner when they arrived in America, presumably to hide their identity. I actually prefer their real name, which sounds more French and is less likely to be misspelled.

I also considered titling this post The Fall of the House of Sumner. I had two siblings and eleven cousins. My daughter has zero siblings and zero cousins. It feels like we are reaching the end of a line. But as with South Korea, it’s been a good run.

Stop here if you wish to avoid a political tirade.

Part 2:

Once the chemo failed, my brother’s case was regarded as hopeless. Unfortunately, his final weeks were increasingly miserable, even with painkillers. He asked the nurse if there was anything that could speed the process along, but the nurse said “no”. I probably would have been quite angry, but my brother is more respectful of others than I am, almost invariably polite. One close acquaintance noted that we treat animals better than humans in end-of-life situations.

I consider myself lucky to live in a state where a person suffering greatly at the end of life can be offered a way out. A state where the nurse could have responded to my brother’s question by saying “yes”. Some will argue, “He could have just taken his own life.” But he wasn’t able to walk and could barely even speak loudly enough to be heard. When I was young, Wisconsin was a progressive state, but today it’s one of only 10 states that doesn’t even allow medical marijuana.

Although I am an economist, it is social issues that I feel most passionate about. It enrages me to think about the 40,000 annual deaths due to a misguided prohibition on the sale of kidneys. Or the tens of thousands of deaths due to our counterproductive drug laws. Or the abuse of young women on the streets because our prostitution laws don’t allow for a safe setting, as in more civilized countries.

Most of the time it is just smaller annoyances that push me toward libertarianism, as when I had all sorts of frustration getting prescriptions filled when traveling. Why can’t I just buy a statin or blood thinner off the shelf? And as I get older I keep getting more libertarian because our society keeps getting more insane.

Presumably, all of these regulators are well meaning. As Jesus said:

Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do.

PS. My sister lived on the same property as my brother and took care of a flock of pigeons. Three years after my sister passed away, one of her pigeons returned home, where it has remained. (We know this from the band on its leg.)

Here are a few other pictures of the house:

People Are (Re-)Learning What a Tight Job Market Is Like

And I don’t think they’ll like it. In 2024, I kept saying that too many either forgot or never experienced what it was like to be an employee in an economy where five percent unemployment was considered too low. Now they’re (re)learning that lesson the hard way, unfortunately.

In a roundup of the recent election, Paul Krugman describes the Conference Board’s “labor market differential” which describes the difference between people who say jobs are plentiful and those who say they’re hard to get. Here are the data:

krugman copy

People haven’t felt this pessimistic about getting a job since 2016 (though there are still more people who say jobs are plentiful versus “hard to get”).

This could be a significant force in politics, though much of it would manifest itself in weird ways. Employees–which is to say voters–would be much more disgruntled about the economy. The perception that jobs are harder to find means one has to put up with more crap from your employer, and I think there could be electoral consequences as a result.

Either way, it’s not a great job market right now, which is not good news for Trump (even if the political press corps still thinks he’s a Very Special Boy).

Prompt Injection in AI Browsers

This is why AIs are not ready to be personal assistants:

A new attack called ‘CometJacking’ exploits URL parameters to pass to Perplexity’s Comet AI browser hidden instructions that allow access to sensitive data from connected services, like email and calendar.

In a realistic scenario, no credentials or user interaction are required and a threat actor can leverage the attack by simply exposing a maliciously crafted URL to targeted users.

[…]

CometJacking is a prompt-injection attack where the query string processed by the Comet AI browser contains malicious instructions added using the ‘collection’ parameter of the URL.

LayerX researchers say that the prompt tells the agent to consult its memory and connected services instead of searching the web. As the AI tool is connected to various services, an attacker leveraging the CometJacking method could exfiltrate available data.

In their tests, the connected services and accessible data include Google Calendar invites and Gmail messages and the malicious prompt included instructions to encode the sensitive data in base64 and then exfiltrate them to an external endpoint.

According to the researchers, Comet followed the instructions and delivered the information to an external system controlled by the attacker, evading Perplexity’s checks.

I wrote previously:

Prompt injection isn’t just a minor security problem we need to deal with. It’s a fundamental property of current LLM technology. The systems have no ability to separate trusted commands from untrusted data, and there are an infinite number of prompt injection attacks with no way to block them as a class. We need some new fundamental science of LLMs before we can solve this.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:
Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

Closed Existing Home SalesIn October, sales in these early reporting markets were up 0.4% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several more early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!
There is much more in the article.

One-Third of US Families Earn Over $150,000

It’s astonishing that the richest country in world history could convince itself that it was plundered by immigrants and trade. Truly astonishing.

From Jeremy Horpedahl who notes:

This is from the latest Census release of CPS ASEC data, updated through 2024 (see Table F-23 at this link).

In 1967, only 5 percent of US families earned over $150,000 (inflation adjusted).

And even though it says so in the chart and in the text let me say it again, this is inflation adjusted and so yes it’s real and no the fact that housing has gone up in price doesn’t negate this, it’s built in. We would have done even better had NIMBYs not reduced the supply of housing.

See also Asness and Strain.

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European Stagnation

Excellent piece by Luis Garicano, Bengt Holmström & Nicolas Petit.

The continent faces two options. By the middle of this century, it could follow the path of Argentina: its enormous prosperity a distant memory; its welfare states bankrupt and its pensions unpayable; its politics stuck between extremes that mortgage the future to save themselves in the present; and its brightest gone for opportunities elsewhere. In fact, it would have an even worse hand than Argentina, as it has enemies keen to carve it up by force and a population that would be older than Argentina’s is today.

Or it could return to the dynamics of the trente glorieuses. Rather than aspire to be a museum-cum-retirement home, happy to leave the technological frontier to other countries, Europe could be the engine of a new industrial revolution. Europe was at the cutting edge of innovation in the lifetime of most Europeans alive today. It could again be a continent of builders, traders and inventors who seek opportunity in the world’s second largest market.

The European Union does not need a new treaty or powers. It just needs a single-minded focus on one goal: economic prosperity.

I’ve quoted the call to arms but there is much more substantive and deep analysis. Naturally, I approve of this theme “If a product is safe enough to be sold in Lisbon, it should be safe enough for Berlin.” Not the usual fare, read the whole thing.

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★ The Software Update UI for Upgrading to MacOS 26 Tahoe Is Needlessly Confusing

I upgrade my iPhones and iPads to new iOS releases, including developer betas, pretty much willy-nilly. But I’m more conservative about the Macs I use for work. For example, I rely on audio software from Rogue Amoeba for recording both The Talk Show and Dithering, but there were bugs in MacOS 26.0.0 and 26.0.1 that could have resulted in lost audio. Those bugs have been fixed as of MacOS 26.1, so I’ve upgraded the Mac I use for podcasting. But I only did that over this weekend. But my main MacBook Pro is still running MacOS 15 Sequoia — not because of any compatibility issues, but simply because I think the Tahoe user interface is goofy looking. I’ll probably bite the bullet and upgrade when 26.2 comes out next month, but for now, I’m luxuriating with a MacOS UI with well-crafted app icons and windows that don’t have Fisher-Price-style corner radiuses.

But in the meantime, I’m keeping MacOS 15 Sequoia up to date. When the MacOS 15.7.2 arrived last week, I noted in a post on Mastodon that it sure looked like clicking the “Update Now” button next to the MacOS 15.7.2 update in System Settings → General → Software Update would actually install the upgrade to MacOS 26.1 Tahoe. There are little “(i)” buttons next to the “Upgrade” buttons for Tahoe 26.1 and “Update” buttons for Sequoia 15.7.2. The “Info” panel that’s presented after clicking either “(i)” button shows that Tahoe 26.1 is the version that is checked.

Screenshot of MacOS 15.7.1 System Settings: General: Software Update, with an arrow pointing to the (i) info button.

Click that “(i)” button in the “Other Updates” section and you get:

Screenshot after clicking the (i) button, showing that the upgrade to Tahoe 26.1 is selected, not the available update to Sequoia 15.7.2.

Leon Cowle was brave enough to try this out, and, it turns out, just clicking the “Update Now” button next to Sequoia will, thankfully, do the right thing install the Sequoia 15.7.2 update, not Tahoe. (I followed Cowle’s brave lead and tried it myself, and can confirm that “Update Now” will install the Sequoia 15.7.2 update.) Why the Info panel presented by clicking the “(i)” button next to Sequoia in the “Other Updates” section defaults to installing the upgrade to 26.1 Tahoe, I don’t know. But it sure makes it seem like we need to be more careful than we actually do if we want to stick with MacOS 15 Sequoia for now.

Five Years of Apple Silicon Macs

Jason Snell, writing at Macworld:

In that first event (which you can relive in the YouTube video below), Apple announced its first wave of M1 Macs: the MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini. The Macs themselves all used the same design as their Intel predecessors, as Apple wrapped potentially scary new technology in completely familiar shapes.

Then the results of the first M1 speed tests arrived, and nothing felt scary anymore. Everything was fast, much faster than Intel, so much faster that even software compiled for Intel running in a code-translation layer via Rosetta ran just fine. In fact, the M1 was such a fast chip that, five years later, Apple’s still selling the M1 MacBook Air. (For $599, at Walmart.) And it’s still a pretty nice computer! [...]

The result of all of this is, though every generation has its quirks, Apple has managed to not drop the ball after the gigantic leap from Intel to M1. Every generation of M-series processors has offered impressive speed boosts. Apple’s CPU cores just get 10% to 30% faster every generation. The GPU cores got faster in all but one generation–and in that generation, overall graphics performance still got faster because the chips all had more GPU cores.

These first five years of Apple Silicon Macs have been the best five-year-run for Mac hardware in the platform’s 41-year history. Hardware-wise, the Mac platform has never been in better shape. And there’s no sign of letup. I fully expect the next five years to be, if anything, even better than the last five — with MacBooks expanding to lower price points, and Mac Pros, finally, expanding the high end of personal supercomputing.

 ★ 

‘Under the Radar’ Now Over

Marco Arment and David Smith:

In our final episode, we reflect on how indie app development has changed over the past decade. Thanks for listening, everyone!

Michael Tsai:

I really liked the 30-minute format and the breadth of topics: everything from API details to broader design considerations, stats from their own businesses, and postmortems, plus all the stuff he mentioned.

Ricky Mondello:

I’ve never been an indie software developer, but I found the podcast extremely insightful. It’s influenced how I’ve thought about my non-indie software development career, not just as someone delivering bits that indies use, but also as a product person who writes software as a means to an end.

 ★ 

The model of catastrophe

Photo of a lone bench facing turbulent ocean waves under a cloudy sky. The area is partially flooded by the sea.

The immense complexity of the climate makes it impossible to model accurately. Instead we must use uncertainty to our advantage

- by David Stainforth

Read on Aeon

With a Day to Think About It

I wrote last night’s post fresh off the news that at least eight Democrats had voted to take John Thune’s deal and vote for a continuing resolution, which got essentially none of the demands that had started this fight over. I stand by everything. If anything I feel surer of my impression of this.

There’s a key distinction I was trying to draw in what I wrote. And that is there’s a difference between the deal itself and where the deal leaves Democrats and the broader anti-Trump opposition. This deal shows us that Democrats still don’t have the caucus they need for this fight that will be going on at least through this decade. But the shutdown also accomplished a lot. And not withstanding the WTF fumble at the 10-yard line, it’s still a dramatically different caucus than we had in March. To me it’s a proof of concept that worked. Democratic voters need to keep demanding more, keep up the pressure and keep purging the Senate caucus of senators who are not up to the new reality.

In other words, it’s not defending anything. I’m certainly not happy with how this ended or endorsing anything this caucus did. I’m feeling good about what Democratic voters accomplished in forcing change on the caucus from March until November. So it’s not that Democrats demanded more and this deal isn’t that bad. It’s Democrats already got their representatives to shift a lot, and they need to keep ratcheting up the pressure, purging and reshaping how Democratic elected officials approach the question of power. And another continuing resolution cliff is just around the corner in January. If you haven’t already read my piece from last night, I encourage you to do so.

Mobile Private Networks are a great opportunity for direct-to-device satellite operators to secure and grow their enterprise business

A composite image of 33 exposures captures reflective Starlink satellites, making them appear to streak over the sky of southern Brazil. Credit: NASA / Egon Filter

The focus of direct-to-device (D2D) services so far has been mainly on extending the coverage of terrestrial cellular networks for cell phones and remote IoT devices. Although this presents a great business opportunity for both D2D satellite and terrestrial Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), the satellite industry needs to be conscious about another fast-developing opportunity in […]

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China expands Guowang constellation, Galactic Energy suffers Ceres-1 launch failure

A Long March 12 rocket lifts off from the Hainan commercial launch site, rising above the pad with bright exhaust and a plume of smoke, surrounded by tall lightning towers under a pale sky.

China conducted a pair launches late Sunday, adding to the national Guowang megaconstellation, but also suffering the failure of a Ceres-1 commercial solid rocket.

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Avio secures solid rocket deals with Lockheed Martin, Raytheon

A new solid rocket production facility is expected to be operational by early 2028, though Avio has not yet disclosed its location.

The post Avio secures solid rocket deals with Lockheed Martin, Raytheon appeared first on SpaceNews.

Commercial Space Federation (CSF) Welcomes New Associate Members

Commercial Space Federation (CSF) logo

November 10, 2025 – Washington, D.C.—The Commercial Space Federation (CSF) is pleased to welcome Seagate Space, Michael Baker International, and Lanteris Space Systems as new Associate Members. These new members […]

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Sateliot opens Barcelona facility to build more capable direct-to-device satellites

Spain’s Sateliot announced plans Nov. 10 to develop upgraded satellites from newly expanded facilities in Barcelona, aiming to move beyond connecting sensors and machines to also provide wideband voice, video and data links directly to smartphones.

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The fallacy of being first — let’s be enduring instead

Several “long poles,” or enabling technologies, need to be developed before establishing a Martian outpost like the one illustrated here. Credit: NASA/JPL

Recent reports suggest that NASA is looking to accelerate its lunar landing timeline — partly to ensure that America returns to the moon before China does. The echoes of the 1960s Space Race are unmistakable. Once again, the focus seems to be on being first — planting a flag, capturing headlines and proving technological superiority. […]

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SpaceNews, JHU Bring Together Space Leaders to Discuss Commercial and Government Space Collaboration

Washington, D.C. — November 10, 2025 — SpaceNews, the leading source of global space industry reporting and analysis, partnered with the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg Center to launch a new […]

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“I wish we could ignore Bill Gates on the climate crisis. But he’s a billionaire, so we can’t,” says George Monbiot. “His [recent climate] essay reads like nothing so much as a peace offering to Donald Trump.”

Recessions have become ultra-rare. That is storing up trouble

Continuous growth can make economies fat and slow

Join the global call for change at DLE--Invitation to Cairo

  After being invited to this week's International Transplant Week in Egypt, , I was invited to invite others.

 (To hear my very brief invitation, which the conference published on Instagram, you may have to click on the speaker symbol in the lower right corner of the image.)

 

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Old school workplace feminization

We investigate whether consequential decisions made by judges are impacted by the gender composition of these judges’ peer group. Using the universe of decisions on juvenile defendants in each courthouse in a Southern state over 15 years, we estimate two-way fixed effects models leveraging random assignment of cases to judges and variations in judge peer composition generated by judicial turnover. The results show that an increase in the proportion of female peers in the courthouse causes a rise in individual judges’ propensity to incarcerate, and an increase in prison time. This effect is driven by the behavior of female judges. We examine the sensitivity of our findings to heterogeneous-robust difference-in-differences estimators for continuous and nonabsorbing treatments.

Here is the full article by Ozkan Eren and Naci Mocan, tekl.

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Rocket Lab delays debut of Neutron rocket to 2026

An artist’s rendering of a Rocket Lab Neutron rocket during stage separation. Illustration: Rocket Lab

The inaugural flight of Rocket Lab’s reusable, medium-lift Neutron rocket is now set for 2026, instead of this year. The company said more testing and qualification work was needed.

Sir Peter Beck, the CEO of Rocket Lab, announced the shift in plans during the third quarter earnings call with investors on Nov. 10. He said that the company’s goal is to get the rocket out to Launch Complex 3 at the Virginia Spaceport Authority’s (VSA) Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) within the first quarter of 2026 “with first launch thereafter.”

“As always, this is a rocket program that’s been completed at a pace and a cost that nobody has achieved before and the financial and long-term impacts are insignificant to take a little bit more time to get it right,” Beck told investors on the call.

Without naming names, Beck said others have raced to the launch pad without being fully ready for launch and that would not be their approach. He emphasized that Rocket Lab’s goal is to have a fully successful first flight and to make it to orbit without issue.

“You won’t see us minimizing some qualifier about us just clearing the pad and claiming success and whatnot,” Beck said. “And that means we don’t want to learn something during Neutron’s first flight that could be learned on the ground during the testing phase.

“At the end of the day, Neutron will fly when we’re very confident it’s ready and we’re not going to break the mold of the Rocket Lab magic.”

A slide from Rocket Lab’s Q3 earnings presentation shown during an investor’s earning call on Nov. 10, 2025. Graphic: Rocket Lab

While the 141-foot-tall (43 m) two-stage rocket is designed to be reusable, part of a successful first flight of Neutron won’t be proving reuse of the booster. Rocket Lab is still developing its 400-foot-long landing barge called ‘Return on Investment’, which Beck said should be ready to support Neutron’s second launch.

Beck said that the methane and liquid oxygen powered Archimedes engines, which will power the liftoff of Neutron with 1.5 million pounds of thrust, continue to go through validation and qualification. He said they’re using two test stands at NASA’s Stennis Space Center in Mississippi at a 20-7 rate: 20 hours a day, seven days a week.

“The only way you can get through years of qualification that are always expected for an engine program is to squeeze years of hours into months,” Beck said. “As you can imagine, no weekends or evenings are left on the table at the Stennis test facility.”

When asked by Michael Leshock of KeyBanc Capital Markets about how close they were to a finalized design of the Archimedes engine, Beck said the “engine design’s pretty stable at this point,” adding that Rocket Lab had “met all the performance criteria.”

“With ascent there’s one set of environments and with descent, there’s an entirely new set of environments and much more challenging environments because your propellant will warm and lower pressures,” Beck said. “The vast, vast majority of all the components for Flight 1 engines are either complete or in some kind of form of build.

“We’re iterating on the engine for sure, but the production machine is stood up and ready to support.”

Leshock also asked whether the original budget prediction of Neutron was holding in the $250 million to $300 million range, Adam Spice, the Chief Financial Officer at Rocket Lab, said that the push of first launch from the end of 2025 into 2026 means that the company likely will have spent about $360 million on the program by the end of 2025.

“As Pete mentioned, it’s about a $15 million impact on the human capital side of things per quarter,” Spice said. “When the program delays, you end up obviously incurring an extension of that staffing-related expenses to the program.”

Spice said Rocket Lab expects to reach the peak of their quarterly expenditures on the Neutron program by the end of the fourth quarter of 2025.

In another part of the earnings call, Spice said the first launch of Neutron won’t include a customer on board, but said they do have “two, fully priced missions in the backlog right now.”

“For Neutron, there’s a third contract admission… made to be a rideshare,” Spice said. “We don’t have that in the backlog because we don’t do that until we’ve actually added the payloads into the manifest.”

Spice reported that Rocket Lab’s backlog at the end of the third quarter was $1.1 billion with 47 percent coming from the launch side of the company versus their space systems business, which provides both spacecraft (like the two ESCAPADE satellites awaiting launch in Florida) and spacecraft components to customers.

Big and Little Spoons

Are you the annoying spoon or the sleepy spoon?

Tuesday: Veterans Day

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Edge Higher But Remain in November Range
Bond markets are closed tomorrow for Veterans Day. When markets reopen on Wednesday, the prospects for ending the government shutdown may be coming into clearer view and that could cause enough market volatility to spill over into rates. If today's trading was any clue, a "reopening" event is more likely to put upward pressure on rates, but today's rate increase could already be reflecting those expectations. [30 year fixed 6.34%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open.

• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

Monday 10 November 1662

Up betimes and to set my workmen to work, and then a little to the office, and so with Sir J. Minnes, Sir W. Batten, and myself by coach to White Hall, to the Duke, who, after he was ready, did take us into his closett. Thither come my Lord General Monk, and did privately talk with the Duke about having the life-guards pass through the City today only for show and to fright people, for I perceive there are great fears abroad; for all which I am troubled and full of doubt that things will not go well. He being gone, we fell to business of the Navy. Among other things, how to pay off this fleet that is now come from Portugall; the King of Portugall sending them home, he having no more use for them, which we wonder at, that his condition should be so soon altered. And our landmen also are coming back, being almost starved in that poor country.

Having done here I went by my Lord Sandwich’s, who was not at home, and so to Westminster Hall, where full of term, and here met with many about business, among others my cozen Roger Pepys, who is all for a composition with my uncle Thomas, which upon any fair terms I am for also and desire it.

Thence by water, and so by land to my Lord Crew’s, and dined with him and his brother, I know not his name; where very good discourse; among others, of France’s intention to make a patriarch of his own, independent from the Pope, by which he will be able to cope with the Spaniard in all councils, which hitherto he has never done. My Lord Crew told us how he heard my Lord of Holland say that, being Embassador about the match with the Queene-Mother that now is, the King of France1 insisted upon a dispensation from the Pope, which my Lord Holland making a question of, and that he was commanded to yield to nothing to the prejudice of our religion, says the King of France, “You need not fear that, for if the Pope will not dispense with the match, my Bishopp of Paris shall.”

By and by come in great Mr. Swinfen, the Parliament-man, who, among other discourse of the rise and fall of familys, told us of Bishopp Bridgeman (brother of Sir Orlando) who lately hath bought a seat anciently of the Levers, and then the Ashtons; and so he hath in his great hall window (having repaired and beautified the house) caused four great places to be left for coates of armes. In one, he hath put the Levers, with this motto, “Olim.” In another the Ashtons, with this, “Heri.” In the next his own, with this, “Hodie.” In the fourth nothing but this motto, “Cras nescio cujus.”

Thence towards my brother’s; met with Jack Cole in Fleet Street, and he and I went into his cozen Mary Cole’s (whom I never saw since she was married), and drank a pint of wine and much good discourse. I found him a little conceited, but he had good things in him, and a man may know the temper of the City by him, he being of a general conversation, and can tell how matters go; and upon that score I will encourage his acquaintance.

Thence to my brother’s, and taking my wife up, carried her to Charing Cross, and there showed her the Italian motion, much after the nature of what I showed her a while since in Covent Garden. Their puppets here are somewhat better, but their motions not at all. Thence by coach to my Lady’s, and, hiding my wife with Sarah below, I went up and heard some musique with my Lord, and afterwards discoursed with him alone, and so good night to him and below, having sent for Mr. Creed, had thought to have shown my wife a play before the King, but it is so late that we could not, and so we took coach, and taking up Sarah at my brother’s with their night geare we went home, and I to my office to settle matters, and so home and to bed.

This morning in the Duke’s chamber Sir J. Minnes did break to me his desire about my chamber, which I did put off to another time to discourse of, he speaking to me very kindly to make me the less trouble myself, hoping to save myself and to contrive something or other to pleasure him as well, though I know not well what.

The town, I hear, is full of discontents, and all know of the King’s new bastard by Mrs. Haslerigge, and as far as I can hear will never be contented with Episcopacy, they are so cruelly set for Presbytery, and the Bishopps carry themselves so high, that they are never likely to gain anything upon them.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Intuitive Machines—known for its Moon landers—will become a military contractor

Intuitive Machines announced last week an $800 million acquisition that will catapult the one-time startup into the space industry establishment.

The company’s planned purchase of Lanteris Space Systems, a satellite manufacturer you may have never heard of, is rather significant. Lanteris is the latest addition to a line of corporate brands that dates back to 1957. Until last month, the company was known as Maxar Space Systems. Its acquisition by Intuitive Machines would be perhaps the industry’s most evident example of a “New Space” firm buying up an “Old Space” company.

The deal would help Intuitive Machines expand beyond its core competency of Moon missions to the broader sector of satellite manufacturing and space services. Lanteris has been owned since 2023 by Advent International, a private equity firm. The transaction is expected to close early next year, subject to “customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions,” according to Intuitive Machines.

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Composable Tests

The Test Desiderata desires 12 properties for tests, two of which are:

  • Isolation—the result of running one test should be completely independent of the results of other tests.

  • Composition—??? tests should run together ??? Isn’t that the same thing as isolation?

No, and here’s why (I finally got an example—examples are always the hardest part.)

Isolation

If a test runs by first setting up its own test fixture, creating from scratch all the data it will be using as input, then that test is guaranteed to be isolated. It doesn’t matter what order you run the tests, the results will be exactly the same. (This is the same property as referential transparency in functional programming.)

Isolation is encouraged in the xUnit testing frameworks (at least most of them) by creating a new instance of a test object for every test & running the setUp() function before running the test. (Some frameworks, notably NUnit, reuse test instances, opening the door to breaking isolation.)

Composition

Say we have a suite of isolated tests & we run them all together. The suite’s success should give us confidence (be predictive in Desiderata terms), even though each individual test on its own isn’t comprehensive.

Example—say we have a test:

test1()
object := new Whatever()
actual := object.doSomething()
assertEquals(expected, actual)

We get that working so we want to implement the next bit of functionality. We copy, paste, & extend:

test2()
object := new Whatever()
actual := object.doSomething()
assertEquals(expected, actual)
actual2 := object.nowSomethingElse()
assertEquals(expected2, actual2)

I have seen tests like this that have been copied, pasted, & extended 6 or 7 times. That last test is pretty hard to read.

Notice that test2 can’t pass if test1 fails. All non-compliant programs caught by test1 will also be caught by test2. We have at least 3 options that preserve the same coverage, the same predictability:

  • Leave both tests.

  • Delete test1.

  • Simplify test2.

Pruning

From a purely aesthetic standpoint (& don’t discount aesthetics), leaving both tests as is offends my sensibilities. They are redundant! Something must be wrong.

Deleting test1 loses us another property from the Test Desiderata—tests should be specific. That’s the property of tests where, when one fails, you know exactly where the problem is.

Which leads to my preferred solution—composition. I trim test2 to avoid the purely redundant parts:

test2()
object := new Whatever()
object.doSomething()
actual := object.nowSomethingElse()
assertEquals(expected, actual)

The composition of test1 + test2 hasn’t lost any of the predictive property. It hasn’t lost any of the specific property. In fact the composition may be more specific as it is possible for test1 to fail & test2 to pass (although they may both fail for a common reason).

N x M

Let’s say we have 4 ways of computing interest & 5 ways of reporting that interest. The brute force approach to testing this is 20 tests. Using composition, though, we can achieve the same confidence in our system with 10 tests. If the variants of computing interest are separated, in a functional programming sense, from the variants of reporting, then we need:

  • 4 tests for computation

  • 5 tests for reporting

  • 1 test that combines computing & reporting, to demonstrate that they are wired together

Gaining confidence from composed tests requires some thought, some inference, some design (to make the orthogonal dimensions demonstrably orthogonal), but the investment in writing pays off in making tests:

  • Faster

  • More readable

  • Easier to change

  • More specific

  • Less sensitive to structure changes

Critique

When I’ve explained what I mean by composable tests, I often receive shocked reactions from experienced testing-developers. “I would never reduce the assertions in a test.” This seems to me to be a reaction based in fear, not in principle. We worked so hard to get to write tests at all. We can’t make them worse.

Composition isn’t making tests worse. Composition is looking at the tests as a whole, trying to make the whole better as judged by several valuable properties of tests.


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Ten thousand years ago, before the dawn of recorded human history, Ten thousand years ago, before the dawn of recorded human history,


Links 11/10/25

Links for you. Science:

Mathematical proof debunks the idea that the universe is a computer simulation
Wave of RSV, particularly dangerous for babies, washing over U.S.; doctors urge vaccination
Historic U.S. Civil War Ship Decaying Due to Fungal Invasion
Asymptomatic Human Infections With Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus Confirmed by Molecular and Serologic Testing
DNA Identifies 2 Bacterial Killers That Stalked Napoleon’s Army
Doctors muffled as Florida moves to end decades of childhood vaccination mandates

Other:

The GOP’s top think tank just defended an open Nazi
Welcome to Your Reckoning: Republicans discover—with shock!—that white supremacists were the call coming from inside the house
Donald Trump’s $300 Million Playpen
The Defiant Resistance Speech An American Should Have Given
D.C. residents speak out against MPD’s work with ICE at D.C. Council
National Guard deployment in D.C. extended through February
Here’s How the AI Crash Happens
Trump Wants to Abolish the Filibuster? Please Proceed, Degenerate…
Task force recommends increasing Metro funding, starting at $460M
How the shutdown has hit D.C., by the numbers
Man jailed for quoting Trump is free after 5 weeks behind bars
Tips for parenting during the federal occupation: We asked experts how to discuss ICE, the national guard deployment, and the current political moment with kids.
Trump’s shock troops to occupy DC even longer
‘They Are Trying to Maximize the Amount of Money They Can Get Any Given Consumer to Pay’: interview with Katya Schwenk on AI surveillance pricing
The quiet collapse of America’s reproductive health safety net
Trump DOJ Charges House Candidate Kat Abughazaleh With Conspiracy for Protesting ICE
This mom’s son was asking Tesla’s Grok AI chatbot about soccer. It told him to send nude pics, she says
JD Vance slammed for saying he hopes his Hindu wife Usha will ‘join Christianity’ at Charlie Kirk event
Yes, most Americans oppose the East Wing demolition. But…
One of the Most Dangerous Interviews Ever in MAGA Media. Why Tucker Carlson platformed white supremacist Nick Fuentes.
Missouri gives ‘one of the biggest millionaire tax cuts’ this year. This year, Missouri became the first state in the country to tax income but not capital gains. That could present a challenge as the state prepares to face a budget shortfall. (Republicans are still Republicans…)
Trump’s Government Of Spite: Political Performance Art For Assholes
An abortion ban pushed me toward abortion. Is this what the pro-life movement intended?
Nancy Mace Curses, Berates Confused Cops in Airport Meltdown: Police Report
‘I Authorized Release of Materials to the Media’: IDF’s Legal Chief Resigns Over Suspected Involvement in Gaza Detainee Abuse Video Leak
Stephen Miller Isn’t a Kapo. He’s Much Worse.
Following Epstein’s Money: Federal prosecutors opened a financial-crimes investigation into Jeffrey Epstein in 2007 amid their larger sex-trafficking probe. The financier and his legal team waged a war against them, his emails show.
Why Is Susan Collins Mixed Up in the Virginia Governor’s Race?
JD Vance makes it clear at conservative event: He’s against legal immigration, too
The Biden autopen ‘investigation’ is fruit of a poisoned tree

*Marked by Time*

The author is Robert J, Sampson, and the subtitle is How Social Change has Transformed Crime and the Life Trajectories of Young Americans, from Harvard University Press.  Excerpt:

…[for part of Chicago]..the chance of being arrested in life among people born in the mid-1980s is more than double that of those born just a decade later, in the mid-1990s.  This large arrest inequality does not arise from early-life individual, family, or local neighborhood characteristics.  It arises from the larger and highly divergent socio-historical contexts in which the children grew through adolescence into adulthood.

The particular story focuses on guns, death, and lead exposure, though I wonder whether the in-sample implied elasticities are validated out of sample.  Nonetheless an interesting book.

The post *Marked by Time* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Florida annual launch record broken with late-night Starlink flight

A long-exposure shot of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket blasting off from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Nov. 10, 2025. Image: John Pisani / Spaceflight Now

Update Nov. 10, 11:30 p.m. EST (04130UTC): SpaceX confirms deployment of the 29 Starlink satellites.

The busiest spaceport in the world broke another record on Monday night. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket was the 94th launch for an orbital class rocket from Florida, surpassing the total achieved in 2024.

The total was a combination of Falcon 9 rockets as well as Atlas 5 and Vulcan rockets from United Launch Alliance and one New Glenn flight from Blue Origin.

The Monday night mission that tipped the scales into the record books was Starlink 6-87, which added another 29 broadband internet satellites to the company’s mega-constellation in low Earth orbit. SpaceX accomplished liftoff from pad 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at 10:21 p.m. EST (0321 UTC).

The launch was originally scheduled about five hours earlier in the day, but it was pushed later because the Federal Aviation Administration is limiting commercial launches to between the hours of 10 p.m. and 6 a.m., due to the shortage of air traffic controllers during the government shutdown. Launches add significantly to the workload of air traffic controllers due to the need to divert flights away from the launch danger area.

The 45th Weather Squadron forecast a 60 percent chance for favorable weather during the launch window thanks to a “strong cold front” moving across the state on Monday. Meteorologists citied concerns from strong winds at liftoff as well as upper-level wind shear and somewhat questionable weather in the booster recovery zone near the Bahamas.

“The front itself will cross the region Monday morning, ushering in a blast of strong northwesterly winds and chilly temps that will linger through at least the first half of Tuesday,” launch weather officers wrote. “As a result, the main concern for the primary launch window will be liftoff winds.”

SpaceX used B1096 for the Starlink 6-87 mission, one of the newer Falcon 9 boosters in its fleet. Monday’s launch was its third flight following KF-01 for Amazon’s Project Kuiper and NASA’s IMAP rideshare mission earlier this year.

Less than eight minutes after liftoff, B1096 performed an autonomous landing attempt on the drone ship, ‘Just Read the Instructions’. This was the 141st landing on this vessel and the 532nd booster landing to date.

Records are made to be broken

For more than half a decade, Florida’s spaceport, a combination of both NASA’s Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, have been steadily increasing the number of orbital launches, thanks in large part to a yearly ramp up in flights from SpaceX.

Between its two Falcon launch pads, Launch Complex 39A and Space Launch Complex 40, SpaceX will have launched 88 times after flying the Starlink 6-87 mission, about 95 percent of the launches from Florida’s Space Coast.

The impact of some of those launches was reflected in October’s monthly CEO report delivered by Capt. John Murray, to the Port Canaveral Commission on Oct. 22. He noted that for all of Fiscal Year 2025 (Oct. 1, 2024 – Sept. 30, 2025) that there were 90 boosters brought into port along with 194 payload fairings, which he described as “quite significant.”

Port Canaveral doesn’t explicitly break down its listing of “Space Component Recoveries” in its report. Presumably, these numbers reflect just SpaceX components, but Spaceflight Now did reach out to Port Canaveral to seek clarification.

The ramp up in launch cadence required both increased agility on the part of launch operators, like SpaceX and United Launch Alliance as well as from those who manage the Eastern Range.

Ahead of the Aug. 4, 2022, launches of both the SBIRS GEO-6 and the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter by ULA and SpaceX respectively, Spaceflight Now Reporter Will Robinson-Smith spoke with members of the 1st Range Ops Squadron (1 ROPS) in his capacity as a reporter for Spectrum News 13 at the time.

Back then, a double launch day was something that hadn’t been achieved in Florida since the 1960s. U.S. Space Force 2nd Lt. Christian Jackson said that a ramped up launch cadence was “something that we train for every week” in preparation for a more airport-like flight environment.

“Just a few years ago, they were launching maybe 12 rockets in a year. We’ve got about 60 plus on the manifest to finish out this year and there are hopes of possibly doing up to 100 launches next year,” Jackson said in 2022. “So, if we want to reach those numbers, we’re definitely going to get to that point where we’re launching over one in a day.”

There have been many double launch days since then, with the most recent being September 25, which saw the launches of the Starlink 10-15 mission on a Falcon 9 rocket and the Kuiper Atlas 03 mission on an Atlas 5 551 rocket.

Leadership at the Cape has been working to increase payload processing facility capacity to allow for further ramp up of missions, with facilities like one dedicated to Amazon’s Kuiper satellites coming online earlier this year.

Orbital launches by year from Cape Canaveral, including failures. Graphic: Spaceflight Now.

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in October

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Falls Back 7% in October
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 7.1% in October to 283.3 (2000=100) from the upwardly revised reading of 304.8. Over the month, commercial planning declined 2.9% and institutional planning slowed by 15.2%. Year-to-date, the DMI is up 35% from the average reading over the same period in 2024.

“After several months of record-breaking levels, planning momentum slowed in October,” stated Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Activity remains solid across the board, especially for data centers and hospitals. However, recent growth should not solely be attributed to gains in real activity. Anticipated increases in labor and material costs are also driving up project expenses and are inflating the overall trend in the DMI. In the coming months, Dodge anticipates activity to continue to decelerate on average, especially as macroeconomic risks continue to mount.”

On the commercial side, activity slowed down for warehouses and hotels, while planning momentum was sustained for data centers, traditional office buildings and retail stores. On the institutional side, education and healthcare planning have slowed down, after strong activity in recent months. Meanwhile, recreational and public planning continued to grow. Year-over-year, the DMI was up 52% when compared to October 2024. The commercial segment was up 54% (+43% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 49% over the same period.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 283.3 in October, down from 304.8 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects.  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

The Shutdown Ice Cracks

Weeks into the government shutdown, enough Democrats last night accepted a Republican package to end the government shutdown – short of the goals of protecting support for health care offered under the Affordable Care Act.

The Senate on proposals from a bipartisan group of moderate senators was a preliminary process that still will require formal votes in the Senate and in the House and Donald Trump’s signature. The proposals extend government funds through January and add separate spending measures to cover programs related to agriculture, military construction, legislative agencies for most of 2026, and back pay for those furloughed. It calls for the administration’s announced layoffs to be halted.

It was not immediately how this would solve cancellation of government supports toward health care rates under Obamacare for those who do not get employer-paid health insurance. As a result, Democrats who were holding out apparently are furious at both Republicans and those Democrats who chose to cave for a promise to bring a health care bill to the floor after the government re-opens. That vote is sure to fail.

Republicans had rejected a Democratic proposal to seek only a single-year’s guaranteed on health rates.  Meanwhile, blame and contention filled the airwaves. While even Donald Trump acknowledged that the shutdown played into election results favoring his Democratic opponents, he has failed to connect that thought to his own aloofness and his own policies.

Instead, he promoted wacky, out-of-the-blue proposals. One was to send health care monies to individuals to buy their own health care, as if reliance on widespread participation from the relatively healthy were not needed to offset systematic costs for the ill.  And he vowed to send $2,000 dividend checks to every taxpayer from tariff revenues. Naturally, there were no details, and a lot of hesitation from staffers.

Let’s be clear: Despite the shutdown, Trump is finding money for things that he wants done, including pay for the military, the frenzied deportation roundups with armed federal agents on the streets of Chicago, border enforcement. And at the very same time, he is willing to let issues of food, health and safety protections lapse.

Disagreement Has Turned Ugly

It has been bad enough that we have a government shutdown.

But the Trump administration’s view of what to do about it has simply made things worse with air travel cancellations and the withholding of food stamp aid. Apparently, Trump believes that if you force enough misery, opponents will come around to your way of thinking just to make the pain stop.

Somehow, playing ego games with legislators by using vulnerable taxpayers as pawns seems like bad politics as well as morally wrong.  Whatever else might go into a shutdown fix-it solution, for Trump to play with other people’s lives and then to blame Democrats seems way over the edge.

Indeed, the day-by-day failure to deal with the shutdown just makes the problems seem worse.

Just yesterday, we learned that The Trump administration told states that they must “immediately undo” any actions to provide full food stamp benefits to low-income families, under threat of financial penalty. This came in the legal challenge moving through appeals in federal court and left officials and recipients uncertain about next steps,

It’s a perfect reflection of power politics over shutdown putting the vulnerable in the bureaucratic crosshairs. No one takes credit for chaos.

Confrontation, not Negotiation

Ridiculous as it seems, the White House answer to shutdown is that Americans should be squeezed rather than have the Art of the Deal guy sit down with Democratic lawmakers worried about people losing their health insurance.

Democrats must see that there will be limitations in any such negotiations, but other than banging the table, seem unable to bring about even a meeting with Trump.

Trump can blame Democrats all he wants for putting a health agenda on the table as the price to re-open the government, stopping holiday air traffic and withholding food stamps hardly seem the right response. Republicans who control the White House, the House and Senate have achieved Shutdown Stalemate, not an understandable problem-solving path.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., makes his surrender terms sound simple, but it comes down to Democrats agreeing to okay a budget that will pay for food aid and working airports for one that drops millions from health care.

For months, Republicans have refused to talk with Democrats about health issues but say they will invite discussion only after they get the “clean” continuing resolution measure that endorses health care cuts.

What About the Politics?

Even if the shutdown clears, the political battles will remain over health care, and over how to defend stubbornness, After all the fighting and bad effects, is anyone better off?

After last week’s election, Trump and Republicans see the same adverse electoral map developing as do Democrats. Trump wants the filibuster removed in the Senate to ease legislation now to slam through various pieces of financial and social bills before there is a possibility of losing majorities.

In a world in which Trump is using apparently illegal powers to refuse to spend already congressionally approved money, in which Trump unconstitutionally insists on dictating what Congress will pass and how, and in which appears to have violated the Constitution about tariffs, why should Democrats trust that he will get around to negotiating about health care.

Instead, of course, we have seen Trump partying at Mar-a-Lago, rebuilding and gilding the White House, seeing reports about FBI director Kash Patel jetting around on taxpayers’ dime to see his girlfriend and for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem buying two jets for her use. It’s all tone-deaf public activities that reflect a definite un-caring about what happens to federal employees, contractors, projects and American voters.

Until now, Trump has said the White House needs to lead to solve problems like shutdowns and should be blamed for unresolved conflicts. Now, of course, he wants to blame “radical” Democrats and Republicans who won’t throw out the filibuster rule to have simple majority votes in the Senate so Trump can force his way.

Apparently losing two governorships to Democrats in an election that was a distinct rebuke of Trump isn’t creating enough pain for Trump and congressional Republicans.

It’s a good case that those who can’t listen can never hear.


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Monday assorted links

1. “We find that likely-unplanned C-sections reduce the probability of subsequent childbirth within four years by 28 to 34%, while planned procedures have small and statistically insignificant effects.

2. “Risk of myocarditis is higher after Covid infection than after vaccine.”  For young people, yup.

3. Claims about Tokyo’s train system.  Princeton job market paper.

4. Matt Y. on the game theory of some of the Democrats conceding.  And thoughts from Sam Stein.

5. Japanese buzzwords of the year?

6. Only five countries have no Swiss citizens living there.  It seems it would be more efficient for that number to be higher?

7. The #1 country song is AI-generated?

8. Efforts toward genetically-engineered babies (WSJ).  And the “fertility awareness” movement (NYT).

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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I want the Japanese future back!

My first book, Weeb Economy, came out in March of this year, but only in Japanese. Since then, a bunch of people have been asking me for an English translation.

Half of the book was a series of translated posts from my blog, so those are already in English. The other half was a new part that I wrote in English and had translated into Japanese by my excellent translator, Kataoka Hirohito. So while I’ll eventually republish the whole book in English, what I can do right now is to publish my English-language first draft as a series of posts on this blog.

In this first installment, I discuss:

  • Why 2008 was a pivotal turning point for the Japanese economy (and not in a good way)

  • Why economic stagnation actually presents Japan with a golden opportunity

  • Why Japanese policymakers should stop focusing so much on macroeconomics, and focus more on development economics

  • Why a multi-strategy approach to development is better than a single strategy

  • How Japan has already been attacking its productivity stagnation by improving the performance of its big corporations and by encouraging more startups

Japan lost the future in 2008, not in 1990

When I lived in Japan in the mid-2000s, it still felt very much like “the future”. 3g flip-phones with grainy cameras were far more advanced than anything I had encountered in the U.S. Japanese people had LCD or plasma TVs, while most Americans were still using old cathode-ray machines. Their kitchens had automatic rice-cookers and other appliances I had never seen, and their laptops were higher-performance and far more durable than the ones I had used in the U.S. Their toilets were like something from a spaceship, and their showers could dry clothing. Some people even had digital SLR cameras that could shoot movie-quality video — a miraculous technology I had never even dreamed was possible.

And the cities! Giant screens adorned the sides of buildings, like something out of science fiction. There was always a train station within walking distance that would take me anywhere I wanted to go. The trains were clean and fast and they ran on time, and they even had electronic screens that told you when the train would arrive at the next station. Japanese cars and even motorcycles glided along quietly, where in America they roared and grumbled. Even in the U.S., of course, the most revolutionary, futuristic car — the Toyota Prius — was a Japanese model.

In the 21st century’s opening decade, Japan felt like it had embraced that new century while America was still lingering in the 20th. William Gibson, the celebrated creator of the cyberpunk science fiction genre, wrote this in 2001:

The world’s second-richest economy, after nearly a decade of stagflation…still looks like the world’s richest place, but energies have shifted…yet it feels to me as though all that crazy momentum has finally arrived…[T]onight, watching the Japanese do what they do here, amid all this electric kitsch, all this randomly overlapped media, this chaotically stable neon storm of marketing hoopla, I’ve got my answer: Japan is still the future, and if the vertigo is gone, it really only means that they’ve made it out the far end of that tunnel of prematurely accelerated change. Here, in the first city to have this firmly and this comfortably arrived in this new century - the most truly contemporary city on earth - the center is holding…Home at last, in the 21st century.

Now realize that the Japan of my earliest memories — the early and mid-2000s — was a full decade and a half after the famous bursting of Japan’s economic bubble. I am not hearkening back to the go-go days of the 1980s. By the time Koizumi Junichiro was in office, Japan’s “lost decade” had come and passed, full employment had been restored, and the country had returned to slow but steady economic growth. Despite the overhang of the bubble era, Japanese per capita incomes, measured at international price levels, grew by a respectable 20% between 1990 and 2007:

This was slower than the U.S. or West Europe, but that was mainly due to Japan’s more rapid population aging, which was increasing the percentage of retirees. In terms of GDP per worker, Japan kept pace with other rich countries over this time period, and even outgrew the United States:

And this growth was being felt by regular Japanese people. It wasn’t just fancy gadgetry and big screens. Japanese houses were getting steadily bigger, growing from the tiny “rabbit hutches” of the postwar period into something similar to what Europeans enjoyed:

Source: Jim Gleeson

Japanese people were eating better, too, as local chefs and entrepreneurs took advantage of imported food to create the world’s best restaurant scene, and big new grocery stores like Aeon revolutionized home cooking. Gyms, cafes, and all kinds of public spaces were improving in quality and quantity. Culturally, Japan still felt at the cutting edge, with a vibrant street fashion scene, a golden age of anime and manga, a burst of musical creativity, and an explosion of online culture driven by websites like Niconico.

Given all this, it’s reasonable to ask whether Japan’s so-called “lost decades” after the bubble era were really lost at all. Japan’s catch-up growth had ended, and its living standards were still a bit below the very richest countries like Switzerland or Singapore, but it was solidly within the first rank of nations, and it was still upwardly mobile. It was innovative and vital, at the cutting edge of both technology and culture. And it had accomplished all of this without the kind of deep wrenching disruptions that America experienced after its own real estate bust.

But in the years since 2007, it feels like that Japanese future has been lost. Living standards grew only 6.5% between 2007 and 2022.:

And even that meager amount of growth was entirely due to increased labor input — women, old people, and young people going to work — rather than to productivity increases. In fact, Japanese workers produced less per hour in 2019 than in 2007, falling well behind other advanced nations:

Why did Japan stagnate starting in 2008? It’s not clear. Potential culprits include the global financial crisis, the big earthquake and nuclear accident of 2011, the subsequent shutdown of nuclear power, rapid aging, the retirement of the Baby Boom generation, and the ramping up of Chinese competition. Perhaps it was all of these combined. But whatever the reason, 2008 was the turning point.

This doesn’t mean Japan has stagnated in every regard. Its big cities continue to build themselves up, and its restaurants and shops have continued to improve. But when I go back to Japan each year, I can clearly feel the loss of that futuristic vitality that I felt 17 years ago. Japan’s consumer electronics are no longer the cutting edge, having long ago been supplanted by Apple and various other brands. Its auto companies have been caught flat-footed by the switch to battery EVs, and are now — like most Western brands — are in danger of losing the global market to innovative Chinese competitors.

America’s household appliances have caught up and surpassed Japan’s — plenty of American homes now sport Instant Pots, air fryers, sous vide cookers, video doorbells, smart speakers, and so on. Japan still has much better toilets, and there have been some locally specific innovations such as better air purifiers. But for the most part, Japanese homes still feel like they’re stuck in 2007. And that’s not even considering furniture, which tends to be much higher-quality in the U.S.

This does not mean Japan is a bad place to live, or that it’s no longer a rich country. Far from it. In fact, the amenities of life — the safety and friendliness, the visual beauty, the infrastructure, the unparalleled retail experience, and so on — make it extremely pleasant in ways that richer countries often fail to match. And if, like me, you’re a foreigner with an American salary who works remotely and sets his own hours, Japan can feel like a paradise. (In fact, this will be important for my argument in a bit.)

But for average Japanese people, life in Japan is hard to afford. Average real wages have actually decreased since 1996:

The situation is actually not quite that bad, since it involves substantial composition effects — falling labor hours, the retirement of highly paid Baby Boomers, the entry of more part-time workers into the labor force, and so on. In fact, hourly wages have increased by a modest amount. And the rise of women’s employment since 2002 has taken some financial pressure off of many families by adding a second income, just as it did in the U.S. in the 1980s and 1990s.

But the shift to dual-income households can only happen once. Ultimately, stagnant productivity and low overall growth will continue to make life a slog for the average Japanese family. The weak yen, which is caused in part by Japan’s slow growth, will continue to make imports expensive. And as the percentage of the elderly continues to steadily increase, Japan’s working-age citizens will have to toil more and more simply to afford the same standards of living — unless productivity can be raised.

Because being “the future” isn’t just about having fancy gadgets and cool screens on buildings. Technological progress — the development of new products and better production processes — is the ultimate font of a nation’s quality of life. If Japan can reclaim the mantle of “the future” — if it can reach the technological cutting edge across a wider array of products — it can secure an easier, more fulfilling life for its people.

Ultimately that is why I want the Japanese future back.

Stagnation isn’t a criticism; it’s an opportunity

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If Republicans Are Just Adding Crap to a Continuing Resolution, Then Let’s Talk About the Epstein Files

In what is a very perplexing political maneuver*, Republicans are doing their damnedest to make it difficult for Democrats to cave in the shutdown fight. The latest insult to intelligence is an attempt to add an abortion ban to any continuing resolution, meaning an abortion ban would be the price for reopening the government.

If Republicans are going to do that, then Democrats should demand that the continuing resolution contain a provision to release the Epstein files. Not only is that, unlike an abortion ban, actually popular, but it shows Republicans that bad faith behavior will be rewarded in kind. Of course, the chickenshit caucus in the Senate Democrats will never go for this, but a boy can dream, can’t he?

*I’ll have more to say about this later in the week, but it does make sense if one assumes that ten to twenty percent of Senate Democrats will always capitulate, which a bunch of them are considering doing. Note this is a problem bigger than Schumer.

November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:
Negative Equity Rates Have Increased

• Negative equity rates, after years at record lows, have risen slightly toward more typical levels

• As of Q4, 875K mortgage holders (1.6%) owe more on their homes than they are worth, the highest rate in three years but comparable to pre-COVID levels and long-term averages outside the Great Financial Crisis

• The share of borrowers with limited equity has also increased, reaching 6.9% in September ‒ the highest since mid-2020 but still below long-term averages
...
ICE Home Price Index• While overall negative equity rates remain low, certain markets are showing signs of concern, particularly in the Gulf Coast of Florida and Austin, Texas

In Cape Coral, Fla., where home prices have dropped 15% from their peak, 11% of mortgages are underwater, including over one-third of those originated in 2023 and 2024

• In Austin, with prices down 21% from their highs, nearly 7% of mortgages are underwater, including about 25% of loans from 2022 and over 15% from 2023 and 2024

• Borrowers with low down payment FHA/VA loans in these areas face even higher negative equity rates, exceeding 60% in some cases

• In contrast, markets like Bridgeport, Hartford, New Haven (Conn.), San Jose, Los Angeles, Boston, and New York City, which have resilient home prices and larger down payments, have virtually no negative equity
emphasis added
There is much more in the article.

No Post Today

Yesterday’s sudden cave by a small but crucial group of Democratic Senators was demoralizing, although you can make a case that it’s not as bad as it looks and feels. More to the point here, it requires substantial restructuring and rewriting of the post I had ready to go.

So no post today. Back tomorrow.

NASA is kind of a mess: Here are the top priorities for a new administrator

After a long summer and fall of uncertainty, private astronaut Jared Isaacman has been renominated to lead NASA, and there appears to be momentum behind getting him confirmed quickly as the space agency’s 15th administrator. It is possible, although far from a lock, the Senate could finalize his nomination before the end of this year.

It cannot happen soon enough.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is, to put it bluntly, kind of a mess. This is not meant to disparage the many fine people who work at NASA. But years of neglect, changing priorities, mismanagement, creeping bureaucracy, meeting bloat, and other factors have taken their toll. NASA is still capable of doing great things. It still inspires. But it needs a fresh start.

Read full article

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Are transplants too scarce, or not scarce enough? A surprising debate about India

 India, now the most populous country in the world, does the third highest number of kidney transplants in the world (although their rate of transplantation per million population is quite low).  So transplants are nevertheless very scarce in India compared to the need, which is the situation worldwide.

Earlier this year, however, a paper by three veteran (non-Indian) transplant professionals who have headed large organizations expressed repugnance for the volume of transplants in India, and the fact that it depends mostly on living donor transplantation (LDT), suggesting it can be viewed as "both alarming and reprehensible."  Their paper's title makes it clear how they view it. 

Domínguez-Gil, Beatriz, Francis L. Delmonico, and Jeremy R. Chapman. "Organ transplantation in India: NOT for the common good." Transplantation 109, no. 2, February, 2025: 240-242. 

"The field of organ transplantation has evolved very differently across the world under the influence of different national healthcare financing systems. Healthcare is, in most countries, financed by taxation and thus through governmental budgets, in combination with private funds, mostly through contributory health insurance systems (eg, Australia, Canada, Europe, New Zealand, South America, and the United States). But across much of Asia, tertiary healthcare services, such as transplantation, are almost entirely dependent on the private finances of individuals. The impressive growth in Indian organ transplantation has been accomplished in for-profit hospitals, which have expanded Indian transplantation into 807 facilities, mostly associated with the major corporate hospital chains.6 Organ transplantation, in a part of the world where one-fifth of all people live, is thus largely not for the common good, but a treatment available for those with ample monetary resources." 

########## 

 This was followed by a firm rebuttal by distinguished Indian transplant professionals.  Their title makes their view equally clear:

Rela, Mohamed, Ashwin Rammohan, Vivek Kute, Manish R. Balwani, and Arpita Ray Chaudhury. "Organ Transplantation in India: INDEED, for the Common Good!." Transplantation 109, no. 6 (2025): e340-e342. 

 "We were deeply concerned by the article “Organ Transplantation in India: NOT for the Common Good” by Domínguez-Gil et al,  which we felt provided an unfairly critical view of the current state of organ transplantation in India. We aim to provide a point-by-point rebuttal based on actual figures and ground-reality rather than tabloid-press articles as cited by the authors.
 

"It is true that in the past 5 y, there has been an extraordinary growth in the number of transplantations in India (more than those achieved over several decades by European countries). While it is natural to be wary of this astronomical increase in transplant numbers, the authors’ assumption that this growth is likely nefarious reflects an outdated western mindset, rather than a true understanding of over 2 decades of massively coordinated effort by the Government of India, transplant professionals and all other stakeholders in the country. 

...

" The development of LDT has been presented with a negative connotation. This shows a scant understanding of the geo-socio-political idiosyncrasies prevalent in the Asian region, and unlike the west, its conventional dependence on LDT.

 ...

"The authors have further confused LDT and deceased donor transplantation with regards to foreigners having access to organs in India. The authors’ accusation of deceased donor organs being preferentially allocated to foreigner is presumptuous at best. The current organ allocation system under the aegis of the Government of India and state-wise organ transplant governing bodies is a very transparent process—and is reserved for Indian nationals.

...

" Transplant tourism being equated with organ commerce is erroneous, the authors’ fail to understand that many poor countries find India a more financially viable destination to get a transplant than countries in the west. Even affordable Governments in the middle east are moving to the east for transplantation, where the ministries have a direct tie-up with transplant units. 

"While it should be conceded that transplantation in India may not be available to all, true social upliftment necessitates broader initiatives beyond just immediate transplant availability: that of addressing poverty. Nonetheless, access to transplants for the underprivileged has greatly improved over the past decade. There are several public sector hospitals in the country that routinely provide transplantation services. In 2023, in the state of Tamil Nadu, 35.1% of all deceased donor renal transplants were performed for free in public sector hospitals (Table 1). 5 While traditionally, the private pay-from-pocket healthcare has been only for those with the resources, the central and several state governments (Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, etc) sponsor an all-inclusive healthcare state insurance for the poor, which includes transplantation at any approved private hospital in the state; which includes LDT.

####### 

I'm on my way to a conference in Cairo that is motivated in part by concern that healthcare in low and middle income countries has been impeded by some of the international healthcare organizations' lack of understanding or empathy for their situations. 

Why Militaries Are Turning to Esports for Recruitment

In the past few years, the lines between gaming and the military have become blurred in interesting ways. What used to be an easy escape for people to unwind during their free time has become a billion dollar industry that draws crowds of people around the world, competitive sponsorships, and unparalleled digital power. Recognition of this shift has prompted militaries across the world to strategically tap into esports in an attempt to recruit the next generation of soldiers. The virtual battlefield has become an effective recruiting ground, providing engagement, community and competition in a way which traditional methods often fail to provide.

As competitive gaming communities grow, organizations in various sectors – from entertainment to defense – are engaging in discussions with how these networks can be used to reach digitally native audiences. Just as gaming sites such as Jackpot City SA, with immersive, skill-based experiences, modern militaries are turning to esports to demonstrate teamwork, precision, and discipline in action.

The New Digital Battlefield

Today’s military recruitment efforts are no longer restricted to posters, commercials or college fairs. The focus has moved to the online communities where young people already spend their time. Esports has come about as a fertile ground for engagement as it involves many of the same principles valued in the military – coordination, strategy, quick decision-making, and leadership.

The esports arena, just like military operations, relies on teamwork under pressure. Competitive games like Call of Duty, Counter-Strike 2, and Valorant replicate real-world combat by requiring communication and tactical awareness. Military recruiters have realized that players who excel in these kinds of high-stakes virtual spaces tend to have transferable skills that are relevant to defense operations.

Platforms such as Jackpot City SA, while being focused on entertainment and gaming enjoyment, are on the same digital engagement model. They focus on immersive experiences, instant feedback, and reward-based motivation – all of which militaries are now using to build interest in potential recruits.

Esports as a Bridge between Civilians and Soldiers

For decades now, the public image of the military has been controlled by the media and pop culture. But esports has something that is far more interactive: the chance to experience teamwork and competition firsthand. Instead of passively viewing a recruitment ad, young gamers can be part of military-sponsored esports teams, or attend events, or interact with uniformed military players who double as digital ambassadors.

This method turns recruitment into conversation instead of persuasion. By hosting tournaments or introducing collaborations with professional esports leagues, armed forces are able to advertise their values and capabilities in real time. The message becomes less of one about war and more about skill, community and opportunity.

In this sense, esports serves as a bridge between the civilized gaming culture and military life. Participation in such initiatives helps and directly affects the participants, in that the military is not just a symbol of authority but a modern, tech-driven organization that understands their world. The social dynamics are similar to the entertainment gaming platforms such as Jackpot City SA, where the feeling of belongingness and the thrill leads to persistency.

Building a Tech-Savvy Image

One of the largest problems with military recruitment in the digital age is relevancy. Younger generations, particularly Gen Z, tend to place greater importance on innovation, technology, and social connection than on strict hierarchy. Esports is a way for militaries to portray themselves as organizations that look into the future and are based on these same ideals.

By investing in gaming tournaments, streaming platforms, and influencer collaborations, militaries portray an image of adaptability and technical competence. This shift helps reposition them in the eyes of recruits – not as outdated institutions, but as organizations offering training in cyber defense, drone operations and AI systems.

Much like Jackpot City SA uses cutting-edge software and seamless online interaction to boost entertainment, military esports initiatives rely on the latest digital tools to help engage audiences who expect authentic and innovative approaches. This modernization of outreach represents a much broader strategic shift: recruitment is no longer about selling a uniform, but about offering a digital identity based on performance, intelligence and community.

Ethical Questions and Prospects for the Future

The military’s involvement in esports isn’t without controversy. Critics say that the combination of entertainment and defense may also trivialize the realities of warfare. However, advocates argue that gaming has opened the door to an understanding of teamwork, problem solving, and technology- all important components of contemporary military operations.

As technology continues to advance, the relationship between gaming and defense is sure to further develop. Virtual and augmented reality simulations may one day become both a training environment and a recruitment tool. Esports may become a pipeline for cultivating strategic thinkers that can work in complex data-driven battlefields.

Just as gaming brands such as Jackpot City SA are constantly evolving to meet new digital behaviors, so too must military organizations if they want to evolve to meet young audiences where they live, play, and connect. In doing so, they are not just following trends – they are redefining the interaction between service, technology and culture in the 21st century.

So, What’s Next?

Esports has become a strong recruitment tool as it reflects the qualities that the military values most: resilience, teamwork, and innovation. By attracting young gamers with their sense of competition and fellowship, militaries are acting to bridge a generation that might otherwise be out of their reach. The influence of the gaming world, in the form of sites such as Jackpot City SA, has ensured that the future of recruitment is not static advertising, but dynamic participation. As the digital and the physical worlds continue to blend, the soldier of the future could very well be found in the next esports tournament.


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Housing November 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.7% Week-over-week

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 16.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.5%), and down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.2%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed three-fourths of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of November 7th, inventory was at 842 thousand (7-day average), compared to 857 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

More From Less: Optimizing Vaccine Doses

During COVID, I argued strongly that we should cut the Moderna dose in order to expand supply. In a paper co-authored with Witold Więcek, Michael Kremer and others, we showed that a half dose of Moderna was more effective than a full dose of AstraZenecs and that doubling the effective Moderna supply could have saved many lives.

It’s not just about COVID. My co-author on the COVID paper, Witold Więcek, has found other examples where a failure to run dose optimization trials cost lives:

Take the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine. For years after its introduction, countries administered it as a three-dose series. Then additional evidence emerged; eventually, a single dose proved to be non-inferior. This policy shift, driven by updated World Health Organization (WHO) guidance, has been a game-changer—massively reducing delivery costs while expanding coverage in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). But it took 16 years from regulatory approval to WHO recommendation. Had this change been implemented just five years earlier, the paper estimates that 150,000 lives could have been saved.

Knowing the potential for dose optimization should encourage us to take a closer look at what we can do now. Więcek points to two high-opportunity projects:

  • The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) is already Gavi’s top cost driver, consuming $1 billion of its 2026–2030 budget. But new WHO SAGE guidance, from March 2025, suggests that in countries with consistently high coverage (≥80–90 percent over five years), either one of three shots could be dropped, or each of the three doses can be lowered to 40 percent of the standard dose. While implementation requires sufficient epidemiological surveillance, its cost would be offset by significant savings in vaccine costs: a retrospective analysis suggests that for the 2020–25 period this approach could have led to as much as $250 million in savings.
  • New tuberculosis vaccines, currently in phase 2–3 trials, are another high-impact example. Given initial promising results, a future vaccine could prove highly effective, but may also become a significant cost driver for countries and/or Gavi—and optimization may prove highly beneficial both in terms of health and economic value.

Witold’s new paper is here and here is excellent summary blog post from which I have drawn.

Addendum: See also my paper on Bayesian Dose Optimization Trials and from Mike Doherty Particles that enhance mRNA delivery could reduce vaccine dosage and costs.

The post More From Less: Optimizing Vaccine Doses appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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New Attacks Against Secure Enclaves

Encryption can protect data at rest and data in transit, but does nothing for data in use. What we have are secure enclaves. I’ve written about this before:

Almost all cloud services have to perform some computation on our data. Even the simplest storage provider has code to copy bytes from an internal storage system and deliver them to the user. End-to-end encryption is sufficient in such a narrow context. But often we want our cloud providers to be able to perform computation on our raw data: search, analysis, AI model training or fine-tuning, and more. Without expensive, esoteric techniques, such as secure multiparty computation protocols or homomorphic encryption techniques that can perform calculations on encrypted data, cloud servers require access to the unencrypted data to do anything useful.

Fortunately, the last few years have seen the advent of general-purpose, hardware-enabled secure computation. This is powered by special functionality on processors known as trusted execution environments (TEEs) or secure enclaves. TEEs decouple who runs the chip (a cloud provider, such as Microsoft Azure) from who secures the chip (a processor vendor, such as Intel) and from who controls the data being used in the computation (the customer or user). A TEE can keep the cloud provider from seeing what is being computed. The results of a computation are sent via a secure tunnel out of the enclave or encrypted and stored. A TEE can also generate a signed attestation that it actually ran the code that the customer wanted to run.

Secure enclaves are critical in our modern cloud-based computing architectures. And, of course, they have vulnerabilities:

The most recent attack, released Tuesday, is known as TEE.fail. It defeats the latest TEE protections from all three chipmakers. The low-cost, low-complexity attack works by placing a small piece of hardware between a single physical memory chip and the motherboard slot it plugs into. It also requires the attacker to compromise the operating system kernel. Once this three-minute attack is completed, Confidential Compute, SEV-SNP, and TDX/SDX can no longer be trusted. Unlike the Battering RAM and Wiretap attacks from last month—which worked only against CPUs using DDR4 memory—TEE.fail works against DDR5, allowing them to work against the latest TEEs.

Yes, these attacks require physical access. But that’s exactly the threat model secure enclaves are supposed to secure against.

Is it ethical to choose a baby’s traits?

Illustration of a blue baby with symbols of heart, ear, bone, eye, tooth, brain, and lips around it on a white background.

Should deaf parents be able to select for a deaf child? On the ethics of parental choice and ‘designer babies’

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

The ant you can save

An ant on a twig against a pastel pink and purple background with its reflection on a glossy surface.

Should we simply assume that all animals can feel pain and are of moral concern? Or is that taking things too far?

- by Jeff Sebo & Andreas L Mogensen

Read on Aeon

A Quick Take on Team Cave’s Big Win

I have what I suspect is a somewhat counterintuitive take on the deal Senate Democrats’ Team Cave made with the Republican Senate caucus tonight. This is an embarrassing deal, a deal to basically settle for nothing. It’s particularly galling since it comes only days after Democrats crushed Republicans in races across the country. Election Day not only showed that Democrats had paid no price for the shutdown. It also confirmed the already abundant evidence that it has been deeply damaging for Donald Trump. But even with all this, I think the overall situation and outcome is basically fine. Rather than tonight’s events being some terrible disaster, a replay of March, I see it as the glass basically being two-thirds or maybe even three-quarters full.

I don’t think anyone has been more adamant than me about how essential it is for Democrats to fight, not only to use what little power they currently have in Washington to secure specific things but to motivate voters and battle Trump by engaging in the performance of power. My writing on this has been crystal clear.

Here’s what I see.

There was a legitimate party rebellion after the March debacle. Democratic voters demanded fight. When the time came, Democrats fought. They held out for 40 days, the longest shutdown standoff in history. They put health care at the center of the national political conversation and inflicted a lot of damage on Trump. At 40 days they could no longer hold their caucus together. And we got this.

That’s a sea change in how the party functions in Congress. And that’s a big deal. Many people see it as some kind of epic disaster and are making all the standard threats about not voting or not contributing or whatever. That’s just not what I see. It’s a big change in the direction of the fight we need in the years to come that just didn’t go far enough. Yet.

I suspect some will say I’m making excuses for the Senate caucus. Not at all. You want to primary Tim Kaine (D-VA)? Great. I already said on Bluesky that should happen. Twenty-four senators demand a new caucus leader? I love it. I’m not making excuses for anyone. Quite the opposite. I take this position because I really don’t care that much about the individual players. I have much bigger ambitions. We’re in a battle for at least the rest of this decade that will require a very different kind of Democratic Party — not one that is more right or left but one that is both comfortable using power and knows how to do it. So I’m going to take this big step in the right direction I’ve seen over the last month and pocket it and move on to the next battle. Meanwhile, keep purging all the folks who can’t get with the new program. If a senator is from a comfortably Blue State and wasn’t vocally in favor of fighting this out, primary them — toss them overboard. After March, Dick Durbin (D-IL) realized he needed to retire. Let’s see some more retirements. But don’t tell me nothing has changed or that this is some cataclysmic disaster. It’s not. This accomplished a lot. It demonstrated that Democrats can go to the mat when the public is behind them and not pay a political price. It dramatically damaged Donald Trump. It cued up the central arguments of the 2026 campaign. It just didn’t go far enough. The ball was fumbled at the end. So we need to demand more.

I’ll note two additional points.

The December vote on Obamacare funding is basically a fake one. But it will show yet again how absolutely determined Republicans are to make people’s health care costs go through the roof. The upshot of the shutdown is that Democrats now own the affordability issue, and they’ve focused it on health care coverage, which Republicans want to make more expensive or take away altogether. That vote keeps it there. So will the huge price hikes millions will be feeling by December. Also, if I’m understanding the deal right this continuing resolution goes through January. So there’s another bite of the apple in just a couple of months.

How has Japan managed its debt ratio?

They have been using an implicit sovereign wealth fund, even in light of rising debt levels:

Since 2012, the social security fund has increased its exposure to riskier assets. In 2013, a government panel recommended a major reallocation of government-run pension funds into higher-yield investments (Hoshi and Yasuda 2015). Following this shift, three-quarters of public pension fund assets were allocated equally across three categories of risky assets: domestic equities, foreign equities, and foreign bonds (each at 25 percent). Over the past decade, these investments have generated strong realized returns, boosting the net asset position of public pension funds from around 40 percent of GDP to over 60 percent of GDP.

And this:

In fact, Japan’s net liabilities decreased over the past ten years from 118.4 percent to 77.6 percent.  However, these gains have come from taking risks — in particular, the risks of duration mismatch and currency mismatch.

That is from a new JEP article by Yili Chien, Wenxin Du, and Hanno Lustig.  Good work, but of course that makes Japan correspondingly vulnerable in the event of a major global equities downturn.

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In defense of Schumpeter

Factories of Ideas? Big Business and the Golden Age of American Innovation (Job Market Paper) [PDF]

This paper studies the Great Merger Wave (GMW) of 1895-1904—the largest consolidation event in U.S. history—to identify how Big Business affected American innovation. Between 1880 and 1940, the U.S. experienced a golden age of breakthrough discoveries in chemistry, electronics, and telecommunications that established its technological leadership. Using newly constructed data linking firms, patents, and inventors, I show that consolidation substantially increased innovation. Among firms already innovating before the GMW, consolidation led to an increase of 6 patents and 0.6 breakthroughs per year—roughly four-fold and six-fold increases, respectively. Firms with no prior patents were more likely to begin innovating. The establishment of corporate R\&D laboratories served as a key mechanism driving these gains. Building a matched inventor–firm panel, I show that lab-owning firms enjoyed a productivity premium not due to inventor sorting, robust within size and technology classes. To assess whether firm-level effects translated into broader technological progress, I examine total patenting within technological domains. Overall, the GMW increased breakthroughs by 13% between 1905 and 1940, with the largest gains in science-based fields (30% increase).

That is the job market paper of Pier Paolo Creanza, who is on the market this year from Princeton.

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A dance of two pairs

While the two largest satellite galaxies of the Milky Way — the Magellanic Clouds — shine upon the Chilean Desert, two Auxiliary Telescopes that feed light into ESO’s Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) point up to the sky, unravelling the mysteries of the cosmos. In today’s Picture of the Week, French photographer Julien Looten wanted to capture the interplay of cosmic and technological pairs. 

The Magellanic Clouds are two dwarf galaxies that accompany our Milky Way through the cosmos. Indigenous cultures in the southern hemisphere often named them after water wells. At the same time the Auxiliary Telescopes are somewhat companions of the larger VLT’s Unit Telescopes, exploring the vastness of the universe. In the background we see the extremely faint but colourful airglow of Earth's atmosphere. 

All together this image shows the “immensity of the cosmos”, as Looten explains, in contrast to the human silhouette on the right side of the picture. It reminds us of how small we are as humans compared to the sizes of cosmic objects and the telescopes we observe them with. While we have the ability to study the greatness of the universe, our passage on Earth is fleeting — sometimes all we can or should do is watch and admire.

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of November 9, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 33 and DOW futures are up 163 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $59.75 per barrel and Brent at $63.63 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $71, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 15% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.05 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.06 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.01 year-over-year.

Frigid Cold in the East; Snow Continues in the Great Lakes

CPHC Central North Pacific Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Tue Nov 11 2025

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

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Forecaster Gibbs
NNNN


NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NNNN


NHC Atlantic Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NNNN