Neo-Nazis and the Impotence of Trumponomics

Elon Musk facing pushback for post-inauguration arm gesture, with some  comparing it to Nazi salute - ABC7 San Francisco

Neo-Nazis — no point in euphemisms — just won big in the rough equivalent of a state-level election in Germany. America’s leading neo-Nazi — again, no point in euphemisms — congratulated the AfD (in German) on the result, and in return received “thanks for your support” from the AfD’s lead candidate.

In the days and weeks ahead there will be many analyses of the results and its implications from people who, unlike me, know something about German politics. For now, let me do something more parochial, and write about what the Sachsen-Anhalt election might teach us about U.S. political economy.

So, about America: Make America Great Again meant different things to different people — racism, of course, being a key component. But in Donald Trump’s mind it also clearly meant trying to bring back “manly” jobs. He would do this by imposing tariffs to eliminate trade deficits, which, in his garbled version of economics, would end huge U.S. “giveaways” to surplus nations. And this would, in turn, lead to a huge revival of U.S. manufacturing employment.

Why is Germany relevant to this story? Because in terms of both trade balances and manufacturing Germany is, in effect, the anti-America. Where we do indeed run large trade deficits, Germany runs huge surpluses. And while Germany, like every other advanced economy, has seen the manufacturing share of employment decline over time, it remains a more industrial nation than the U.S. has been since the 1980s.

Indeed, relative to the size of its economy, Germany runs trade surpluses and retains large-scale manufacturing employment to an extent that lies far beyond the wildest dreams of Trumponomics.

And none of this appears to make a bit of difference to the resentment that underlies right-wing extremism on both sides of the Atlantic.

Start with trade. Here are balances in trade in goods and services for the two nations, expressed as a percent of GDP:

The U.S., as Trump constantly emphasizes, consistently buys more stuff from other nations than they buy from us. In his mind this means that we are being ripped off (as opposed to attracting large inflows of foreign investment, which as a matter of sheer accounting necessarily implies that we run trade deficits.) In any case, however, the Germans should be feeling pleased with themselves for running big trade surpluses, and hence taking advantage of the rest of the world, right?

Somehow, they aren’t.

America’s large trade deficit in manufactured goods does mean that we have fewer manufacturing jobs than we would if that trade were balanced. Robert Lawrence of the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that eliminating the deficit would raise the manufacturing share of employment from 7.9 to 9.7 percent, similar to my own back-of-the-envelope calculations. Correspondingly, Germany, with its large manufacturing surpluses, has relatively higher manufacturing employment as a share of total employment. Here are trends in industrial employment — a bigger category than manufacturing alone, but the trends are similar:

Even Germany has gradually become “deindustrialized,” but even now it is more of an industrial nation, as measured by where the jobs are, than the United States has been for at least 35 years. Has this insulated Germany from the bitterness and political extremism that many U.S. observers attribute to deindustrialization? Apparently not.

So here’s one way to think about the political economy here. The economic component of MAGA might be described as a plan, or maybe a concept of a plan, to make the U.S. economy more like what it was in the 1950s, when we didn’t run trade deficits and had a lot more men working in industry. But this might also be described as a concept of a plan to make America more like Germany. And what the results in Sachsen-Anhalt show is that even if such a plan were to deliver the promised results (which it wouldn’t), it would do little if anything to reduce politically radicalizing resentment.

I should mention one more lesson from the AfD’s victory, one that has me reconsidering some of my own beliefs.

Many U.S. observers, me included, have laid considerable stress on the problem of “left-behind” regions — rural and small-town areas bypassed by the rise of a knowledge economy, which tended to favor large, highly-educated metropolitan areas. These economically stranded regions have been plagued in particular by declining employment among men of prime working age, a decline that in turn is associated both with social problems and with strong support for Trump and hard-right politicians in general.

For many years it has been common to think of the former East Germany, which includes Sachsen-Anhalt, as one of the many European analogues to what Austin, Glaeser and Summers called the Eastern Heartland. Indeed, East Germany, which had near-full-employment among working-age men, went through an extended period of men-not-working after German reunification.

But that story is now long out of date:

Residents of the former DDR still consider themselves economically disadvantaged, and their incomes are somewhat lower than the national average — although not, as far as I can tell, as low in relative terms as poorer U.S. states. But in any case the tale of East Germany as a deeply depressed region no longer fits the facts.

What, then, is the moral of this analysis? Mostly it’s negative: Crude economic factors don’t explain the fascist shift in Germany. And Trumponomics, even if it worked (which it doesn’t) wouldn’t end the resentment feeding our own authoritarian movement.

MUSICAL CODA

Not topical; I just need cheering up

Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAI

Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAI

Apparently today is RSI day at OpenAI, for Recursive Self-Improvement - I think it's their new AGI. Both this piece and the new essay An Alien Mind (by Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki) talk about it, and this one doesn't even bother to expand the acronym.

Included are details on how OpenAI's own research team are using coding agents. Like pretty much everyone else 2026 has been the year that agentic engineering really took off at OpenAI, best illustrated by this chart:

Screenshot of a line chart from a report, headed "1. Coding agents are reshaping daily work for OpenAI researchers" with a partially visible chart title ending "significantly—Median researcher". Y-axis: "Daily $ / researcher" from 0 to 700. X-axis labels: "Feb 2026", "Apr 2026", "Jun 2026", "Aug 2026". A blue line stays near 0 through February, rises slowly to about 50 by April and 150 by June, plateaus around 150–165 into July, then climbs steeply to roughly 600 by late August 2026.

I'm intrigued at what caused that significant acceleration in AI spend per researcher in late July - my best guess is that's when internal employees gained access to the model later released as GPT-6 Astra.

Tags: ai, openai, generative-ai, chatgpt, llms, coding-agents, november-2025-inflection, recursive-self-improvement

The purpose of DNS is to spread scams

The purpose of DNS is to spread scams

Terence Eden shares some daunting statistics in support of his take that "the Domain Name System's purpose seems to be a vector for criminals to run scams on people at a terrifyingly high rate".

On this Interisle report (via Andrew Campling), Terence says:

It says 85 million new registrations of gTLDs were made in 2025. Of those 8.5 million were added to blocklists by May 2025. It reckons that a 10% abuse rate is the likely floor for these numbers and it's probably closer to 20%. One in five newly registered domains with a gTLD are scams. That's a bloody crisis.

I had no idea. Apparently ICANN have been discussing this problem for years.

Tags: dns, scams, terence-eden

There's No Limit to How Bad Code Can Get

My comment on There's No Limit to How Bad Code Can Get — Lobste.rs.

[In reply to a comment about burning it down to start from scratch when technical debt becomes overwhelming]

In my experience it's so rare for that to work.

You announce the old thing is irrecoverably drowning in tech debt. You spin up a team to rewrite it from scratch. Work begins.

Meanwhile the old thing remains a moving target: it's running the core business, so changes are still necessary. The developers working on it know that it's going to be made obsolete by the new thing soon, so they don't have any incentive to go beyond the smallest effort possible to add the new features. Technical debt continues to mount.

Meanwhile, the team working on the new thing are ambitious and probably a little naive. They start out at a great pace - it's greenfield after all - but as time progresses it becomes apparent that nobody fully understands the behavior and scope of the thing they are replacing. If it was well documented and tested it wouldn't need to be replaced, after all...

After months (or even years) without delivering value, the pressure is on to "ship it", so the new system is launched to handle a subset of what the old system handled - or often for some new feature that was too hard to build with the now mostly unmaintained old system.

... so now you have TWO systems in production - the janky old system that nobody wants to touch, and a new system which handles just a few production features and is 80% inactive code that is meant to replace the old system, eventually.

If you're really lucky the company won't have lost patience with the new system and will allow that work to continue. The longer this all takes, and the longer the old system stays in production and stubbornly continues to work, the higher the risk that "priorities have changed" and the new system total replacement work is abandoned, leaving you with two systems where you used to have one.

The best article I've read about completing this process responsibly is Migrations: the sole scalable fix to tech debt by Will Larson.

If I run into a situation like this in the future, my strong recommendation will be to shore up the old system with as much automated testing as possible and then seeing if targeted refactors can get it to the desired shape. My hunch is that in many cases that will have a much higher chance of success than the siren call of a greenfield replacement.

Tags: migrations, technical-debt

Automobile Camouflage to Hide from Flock Cameras

Not sure it’s practical, but it’s certainly striking.

AI keeps stubbornly refusing to take our jobs

It’s Labor Day, so here’s a post about how human labor is alive and well in the age of AI.

I live in San Francisco and hang out with a lot of tech people, both in the AI industry and outside of it. And one thing that almost everyone I know here believes is that AI’s main economic effect is to displace humans from their jobs. Most people don’t have concrete arguments for why this should be true; it’s just an article of faith. The conventional wisdom is pretty well summed up by the first line of this tweet:

In fact, AI companies themselves have spent years talking about how their inventions are going to render large swathes of humanity economically obsolete — an odd marketing pitch, perhaps, but one that seemed to reflect their honest expectations.

A lot of times, San Francisco tech people are out of step with the general public. This time, though, the public seems to agree. A recent Ipsos poll found that most Americans expect AI to compete with human workers more than it complements them. And Pew finds that this belief has even strengthened in recent years:

Source: Pew

So basically, most people think AI is a job-killer. And yet somehow, this job-killer keeps stubbornly refusing to kill jobs. In the aggregate, the labor market is about as healthy as it’s ever been. The prime-age employment rate — the single best indicator of how many Americans have jobs — continues to hover near all-time highs:

Of course, there are lots of other things going on in the labor market right now besides AI. But most of those things — tariffs, the Iran war, etc. — are bad for employment. It’s not easy to identify some sort of positive shock that is canceling out the job-killing effects of AI.

Or maybe it is, if the shock is AI itself. Theoretically speaking, automation can create jobs just as easily as it can destroy them. Here are Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019), explaining the various ways that technology can affect the demand for labor:

Automation [can be bad] for labor because of a displacement effect—as capital takes over tasks previously performed by labor…

[A]utomation technology also increases productivity, and via this channel, which we call the productivity effect, it contributes to the demand for labor in non-automated tasks

[T]he displacement effect of automation has [historically] been counterbalanced by technologies that create new tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage. Such new tasks generate not only a positive productivity effect, but also a reinstatement effect—they reinstate labor into a broader range of tasks and thus change the task content of production in favor of labor. The reinstatement effect is the polar opposite of the displacement effect and directly increases the labor share as well as labor demand. [emphasis mine]

In other words, automation can do three basic things. Yes, it can replace people and take their jobs. It can also make them more productive, which can both create jobs and destroy them.1 And, crucially, automation can create new jobs for people to do. Power looms replaced master weavers, but they created jobs for technicians and engineers to make the power looms work. The internet automated much of the work of travel agents, but created jobs for web designers. And so on.

People who think of AI as a job-killer might not have thought of the second and third of these. Or they may have thought of them, but simply assumed they’re not a big deal. Anecdotally, a lot of tech people think that AI will keep substituting for more and more tasks until A) productivity increases just increase the demand for AI, and B) there are no new tasks left for humans to do. AI detractors, meanwhile — like Daron Acemoglu himself — often simply assume that new tasks created by AI will be “bad tasks” like misinformation and cybercrime that hurt the economy instead of helping it.

But these assumptions simply might not be correct. AI might be creating lots of new tasks for humans to do. For example, software engineers are writing less and less code themselves. Instead, they’re spending more and more time telling AI to write code — that represents a productivity improvement. But they’re also trying to figure out what code to tell AI to write, making sure AI is writing the kind of code they want, integrating that code into products, and so on. Those are all new tasks. There are also a lot of software engineers working on improving AI itself, and on discovering new applications for AI. Those are new tasks as well.

This helps explain why in the age of Codex and Claude Code, software developer jobs have been increasing as a percentage of total employment:

Anecdotally, organizations that thought they could replace lots of their software engineers with AI ended up having to hire many of them back — sometimes at a premium.

In fact, this is a story we see throughout the economy. Alex Tabarrok recently reported on a Census Bureau survey about AI that’s been running since 2023. The Census Bureau calls companies up and asks them A) how AI affected their total employment, and B) how AI affects the tasks that workers do.

Most companies reported no change in overall employment, which could just be due to inertia. But of companies that did report a change, more reported an increase than a decrease!

And here’s the breakdown by sector:

Source: Census Bureau via Alex Tabarrok

The story was similar for tasks. Tabarrok writes:

Among firms using AI, 44% say it supplemented or enhanced work an employee already does. Ten percent say it performed a task an employee used to do. Eleven percent say it introduced a task no one had been doing.

Here’s the chart:

Rigorous research, meanwhile, sometimes finds negative effects of AI on labor demand at the industry level, and sometimes not. But at the company level, the evidence is clearer — Kharazian, Simon, and Stevens (2026) find that when companies adopt more AI, they tend to hire humans rather than replacing them. Here’s a blog writeup of their findings:

Ramp Economics Lab
We can finally say AI isn’t killing jobs
Dear Colleagues: The most important economic question of this decade asks how AI will affect jobs. Everyone wants to write that paper. Until now, no one has had the right dataset, so existing research has relied on a combination of guesses, surveys, AI exposure scores, and self-interested punditry. In fact, a recent paper from Stanford said the ideal da…
Read more

And here’s a chart:

Interestingly, they find the same for entry-level jobs — the jobs that people usually identify as being most under threat from AI.

So despite Acemoglu’s skepticism, it looks like for now, the new tasks being created by AI are probably matching or even slightly exceeding the tasks replaced by AI. Of course this measure is “number of companies” rather than “number of jobs”, but the pattern is pretty clear.

The Economist, meanwhile, has a report on how AI is creating jobs, both through the “new tasks” channel and by boosting demand in areas that AI can’t yet touch — physical jobs like construction and HVAC installation. Here’s what they write about the productivity/demand effect:

The Economist estimates that AI has so far created around 1m new jobs in America. That easily exceeds the roughly 200,000 lay-offs attributed to AI since mid-2023, and appears more than enough to offset weaker hiring in many back-office roles. America’s AI infrastructure splurge has created many of them…The Economist tracked five industries at the heart of the data-centre build-out, from electrical contracting to equipment manufacturing. Since 2023 employment in them has risen by roughly 320,000 more than broader…trends would suggest…LinkedIn, a social network for strivers, estimates that nearly half a million data-centre jobs were created between 2023 and 2025 in America, with data-centre technicians and engineers among the most common recent hires…

The scramble for workers is showing up in pay cheques, too. Indeed finds that installation and maintenance jobs at data centres advertise wages about 40% higher than comparable work elsewhere…In the year to June, average hourly earnings rose more than 13% in electrical-equipment manufacturing and nearly 8% among electrical contractors. [emphasis mine]

And here’s what they write about new tasks:

AI is also creating a new class of white-collar jobs. Engineers build the models, data annotators label their inputs and judge their answers, “forward-deployed” engineers adapt them for customers, and newly minted “heads of AI decide what companies should do with the technology. Some of these roles barely existed until recently. Many are quickly growing in number. Postings for heads of AI, AI engineers and directors of AI have roughly doubled since 2023-24, according to LinkedIn…

Preliminary research by Gad Levanon, chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute…reckons roughly 1% of professional jobs are now “AI jobs”…[P]rofessional occupations closest to the AI boom—engineers, software developers, mathematicians and data scientists…have added roughly 730,000 jobs above trend in recent years[.] [emphasis mine]

What about specific occupations? Technology has certainly destroyed many specific types of jobs over the centuries — there are (basically) no more elevator operators, human telephone operators, or people who do manual typesetting for printing.

And yet in recent decades, we haven’t seen as much of this sort of occupational destruction. For example, a lot of people thought the internet would kill travel agents. And while the industry was hit hard, there are still plenty of travel agents left:

The reason is probably that the job of “travel agent” is much more flexible and “messy” than older types of jobs like elevator operator; travel agents do a whole lot of different tasks, so they’re harder to replace than people who just stand there and press a button. That makes modern jobs harder to replace entirely.

It’s a good bet that AI will eventually make some occupations obsolete. But so far, despite awe-inspiring progress in model capabilities, it’s extremely hard to find occupations that have seen significant replacement by AI. Top AI researchers who famously predicted the end of human radiologists saw their predictions get confounded. Truckers, too, are doing just fine.

The most impressive example might be translators. It seems pretty obvious how AI could replace human translators, and yet it hasn’t done so yet:

Here’s a chart:

Source: Census Bureau

If you could go back to 2022, and tell people that in four years, AI would be solving frontier math problems, but we’d still have the same number of people working as translators, how many would have believed you?

It turns out that it’s very natural for people to overestimate the degree to which AI will take their jobs. Hartley et al. (2026) have a really excellent paper called “Job Loss Fears in the First Years of Generative Artificial Intelligence”. Here’s a thread explaining the paper’s findings.

Basically, the authors find that fear of AI job replacement is extremely common:

And they find that the more people’s jobs are exposed to AI, the more they think their jobs are about to be replaced:

In fact, the more of their day people spend using AI at work, the more they’re afraid of being replaced!

And yet when the authors looked for a correlation between AI exposure and actual job loss, they found…absolutely nothing. People’s fears simply haven’t come true yet.

What’s going on? The authors hypothesize that people who use AI more start to understand its ability to replace the tasks they do at work. But as we keep finding, replacing tasks isn’t the same as replacing jobs. People keep finding new things to do in their roles at work — sometimes things AI can’t do yet, but often things that couldn’t even be done until AI made them possible!

It seems like we’re uncovering a consistent human blind spot here: People don’t actually know how they produce value at their jobs. Modern jobs are much more than a simple collection of tasks — they are pieces of a complex machine that produces value in ways that an individual worker often doesn’t even see.2 So when AI comes along and starts replacing people at various tasks, it just ends up making them more valuable as pieces of their corporate machines.

How long that situation will persist, of course, is an open question. AI leaders are starting to realize that it might take a very long time for the full effect of their inventions to be felt:

This is why the AI companies’ recent messaging pivot — many now say that AI will create jobs rather than destroying them — may be honest, rather than a cynical marketing ploy to calm public outrage.

But then there’s the question: Can this situation persist indefinitely? No one knows, of course. But my bet is that while many occupations will eventually be mostly replaced by AI, humans will still have plenty to do. I’ve argued that in order for AI to start replacing human jobs wholesale, it’ll have to get much more agentic — which will make it inherently more unreliable from a human point of view. So I predict that humans will always have jobs keeping AI agents on track.

Even if I’m wrong, though — even if the AI job apocalypse does eventually come — it doesn’t seem like it’s coming soon, and it certainly isn’t here right now. Everyone keeps thinking that AI is a job killer, and AI keeps on refusing to be what everyone expects.

Happy Labor Day!


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1

Higher task-level productivity can destroy jobs by letting employers do more with less. It can create jobs by creating economic growth, which boosts labor demand. But I think Acemoglu et al. might overlook another source of productivity-driven job creation, which is variety. When carmakers became more productive, they became capable of pumping out more different makes and models of cars. This probably made consumers want cars more, because people enjoy variety — GM famously overtook Ford by offering more models, more frequent model updates, and more colors.

2

This is why jobs may feel like “bullshit” to the people doing them, even as they command high wages in the market.

The planet is… up to something

Photo of Earth from space showing clouds, oceans and land masses against a starry black background.

An astronaut’s image of Earth from the 2026 lunar flyby reveals not our profound smallness but our growing significance

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Continental divide

A lorry on a long desert road with rocky terrain and mountains in the background under a partly cloudy sky.

A century ago, the Pan-American road promised a new era of fraternity between the two continents. Did it succeed?

- by Shawn Miller

Read on Aeon

Sidenotes with CSS anchor positioning

I am a heavy user of sidenotes:1 they keep optional content next to the text instead of sending the reader to the bottom of the page and back. Tufte CSS renders them without JavaScript but only accepts inline content. CSS anchor positioning, now supported by recent browsers,2 is an elegant alternative. Sidenotes can hold several blocks, still without JavaScript, and fall back below the paragraph referencing them on narrow viewports and older browsers.

In 2023, Eric Meyer demonstrated this technique in “Nuclear Anchored Sidenotes.” The main improvement over other solutions is that the notes can sit anywhere in the HTML document. You can place them after the paragraph referencing them, as regular block elements for text browsers, screen readers, feed readers, and reader mode to render them properly:

Sidenotes rendered in Lynx appear after the paragraph they are called
from.
Rendering in Lynx, a text browser

When the viewport is too narrow or the browser does not support CSS anchor positioning, you can style them so the reader can skip them or glance at them without losing their position in the text:

Sidenotes rendered on a narrow viewport appear with a distinctive typography
after the paragraph they are called
from.
Rendering below the paragraph on a narrow viewport

Once the viewport is large enough, they appear in the margin, at the same vertical position as the matching reference mark, unless they would collide with a previous sidenote, as in the example below:3

Sidenotes rendered on a large viewport appear in the margin. There are two of
them. The first one is vertically aligned with the matching reference mark,
while the second is rendered below as it would collide with the first
otherwise.
Rendering in the margin on a large viewport

The gist of CSS anchoring is to position an element relative to another element—the anchor. For the sidenotes, the anchor is the reference mark. I use the following markup, with a data attribute to specify the anchor name:

<sup id="fnref:YYY" data-anchor="--lf-sn-YYY">
  <a href="#sidenote-YYY">1</a>
</sup>

The matching note is an <aside> element carrying the same data attribute for the anchor name. We put it after the paragraph holding the reference mark:

<aside role="note" id="sidenote-YYY" data-anchor="--lf-sn-YYY">
  <sup>1</sup>
  <p>A first paragraph.</p>
  <p>A second paragraph.</p>
</aside>

On a narrow viewport or when the browser is too old for CSS anchoring, we style the sidenote, which stays below its paragraph, with a muted color:

aside[role="note"] {
  margin-block: 1rlh;
  color: #444;
}

On a wide viewport and when the browser is recent enough, we move the sidenote to the right margin:

@supports (anchor-name: attr(data-anchor type(<custom-ident>))) {
  @media (min-width: 72rem) {
    main {
      position: relative;
      sup[data-anchor] {
        anchor-name: attr(data-anchor type(<custom-ident>));
        /* → anchor-name: --lf-sn-YYY */
      }
      aside[role="note"][data-anchor] {
        anchor-name: --lf-sidenote;
        position: absolute;
        position-anchor: attr(data-anchor type(<custom-ident>));
        /* → position-anchor: --lf-sn-YYY */
        top: max(anchor(top), anchor(--lf-sidenote bottom, -1rlh) + 1rlh);
        left: 100%;
        margin: 0 2rem;
        width: 18rem;
        color: inherit;
      }
    }
  }
}

attr() extracts the anchor name for the reference mark from the data-anchor attribute. It returns a string, unless we specify a CSS unit or a type, like here: the browser parses the data attribute as a custom identifier, which anchor-name validates as a dashed identifier, a custom identifier starting with two dashes.4

The note itself is absolutely positioned past the right edge of the main block. It selects the matching reference mark as its anchor with position-anchor set to the value of the data-anchor attribute. Each note is also an anchor named --lf-sidenote. We use it to keep the next note from colliding with this one.

The anchor() CSS function lets us position the note’s top edge relative to its anchor: anchor(top) aligns the top edge of the note with the top edge of the reference mark. It can also take another anchor as a parameter: anchor(--lf-sidenote bottom) would align the top edge of the note with the bottom edge of the closest preceding anchor named --lf-sidenote—so the previous note.5 Like attr(), anchor() accepts a fallback value as its second parameter and use it when the named anchor does not exist.

The top property handles three cases, illustrated in the following diagram:

Diagram of three sidenotes anchored to their reference marks. The first one is
aligned with the top of its own reference mark, as no note comes before it. The
second one would overlap the first, so it takes the bottom of the first note as
anchor and sits one line below it. The third one comes far enough down the page
to align with its own reference mark
again.
The three cases for the vertical position of a note
  1. The first note’s top edge aligns with the top edge of its reference mark: as there is no previous note, anchor(--lf-sidenote bottom, -1rlh) + 1rlh resolves to 0 and max() returns anchor(top).
  2. When the reference mark of a later note sits above the bottom of the previous note, plus some vertical space, the note goes below the previous one to avoid a collision. max() returns anchor(--lf-sidenote bottom) + 1rlh.
  3. Otherwise, the note’s top edge aligns with the reference mark’s top edge, as max() returns anchor(top).

Have a look at the complete stylesheet, which also adapts the reference mark to the location of the note: a “↓” arrow when the note sits below the paragraph, a “→” arrow when it moves to the margin. Gwern’s “Sidenotes In Web Design” lists more implementations and their trade-offs.

Some bloggers aim to write a post in 30 minutes. I planned to publish three web-related articles this weekend. Instead, I spent an inordinate amount of time elsewhere: about 15 commits on the build system, a pull request to update CSS highlighting for nested selectors in Pygments, and a small correction to MDN’s article on the anchor() CSS function. The SVG illustration took a bit less than an hour and the article itself a handful of hours. The attr() function came in after I thought “inline style looks ugly, isn’t there a better way?” But, hey, I still think this is worth it! 🎨


  1. My PhD advisor told me this is unwise. 

  2. The first bits of anchor positioning are supported from Chrome 125 (May 2024), Firefox 147 (January 2026), and Safari 26 (September 2025).

    Before Safari 26.5, sidenotes may collide due to a bug in how dependency chains are handled. You can detect this situation with some JavaScript. It is, however, not needed in the solution described here as we depend on a more recent feature. 

  3. If you noticed the runt in the first note, I share your pain and lament that Firefox does not implement text-wrap: pretty

  4. Typed attr() is supported from Chrome 133 (February 2025), Firefox 155 (September 2026), and Safari 27 (not yet released). Check Una Kravets’ article for details. To support more browsers, you can inline the anchor name and the position anchor directly in the HTML:

    <sup id="…" style="anchor-name: --lf-sn-…">
      <a href="#sidenote-…">1</a>
    </sup>
    

    Managing Anchor Associations With Data Attributes and Advanced attr(),” by Daniel Schwarz, explores CSS anchors and typed attr() in more detail. 

  5. The exact rule for the target anchor element is more complex: “if an ancestor of [the note] satisfies the following conditions, return the nearest such element to [the note]. Otherwise, return the last element in tree order that satisfies the conditions.” One of these conditions is that “[the candidate] is an acceptable anchor element for [the note],” which requires that “[the candidate] is laid out strictly before [the note],” where the relevant clause is that “[the candidate] is either not absolutely positioned or occurs earlier in the flat tree order than [the note].” 

Capital gains vs. wealth taxes

Standard optimal capital tax theory abstracts from modeling asset prices, making it unsuitable for thinking about capital gains and wealth taxation. We study optimal redistributive taxation in an environment with asset price movements, adopting the modern finance view that asset prices fluctuate not only because of changing cash flows, but also due to other factors (“discount rates”). We show that a combination of realization-based capital gains and cash flow taxes implements the optimal allocation regardless of the source of asset-price fluctuations. Moreover, the capital gains tax avoids distortions in portfolio choice (the socalled lock-in effect) by targeting total net trades rather than gains from selling individual assets. These results stand in contrast to the classic Haig-Simons comprehensive income tax concept as well as recent proposals for wealth or accrual-based capital gains taxes.

Wealth taxes lose the comparison.  That is from Econometrica, by Mark Aguiar, Benjamin Moll, and Florian Scheuer.

The post Capital gains vs. wealth taxes appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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It’s a new MOON(S)!

Today’s Picture of the Week celebrates the intricate design of the Multi Object Optical and Near-infrared Spectrograph, or MOONS, a new instrument at ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) that recently performed its first observations. Shown here, suspended in darkness, are two of MOONS’ infrared cameras. These multi-tiered shiny metal structures, covered in bolts and cables, will be used to probe the construction of our galaxy and those beyond.

The centre of the Milky Way is shrouded in dust, which blocks visible light from inner stars passing through to us. By gathering a different type of light that can pass through this dust, called infrared, MOONS can investigate the properties of millions of these ‘hidden’ stars. This will enable astronomers to produce an accurate 3D map of the centre of our galaxy. MOONS will also be used to study millions of other galaxies, probing how they form and evolve at different ages of the Universe.

How does MOONS’ design enable detailed observations of so many cosmic objects? By using around 1000 fibre-optic cables, each mounted on a robotic positioner that carefully points it to the exact location of an astronomical object, whose light is then fed from the VLT into two spectrographs. Spectrographs work like a prism creating a rainbow, splitting the light they receive into separate ‘colours’ (or wavelengths) to then be detected by cameras, like the ones in this image. The fingerprints of chemical elements encoded in the light can then be analysed in detail, revealing properties of cosmic objects like composition, mass, and velocity. To minimise contamination from sources of infrared light around the instrument, MOONS is kept very cold (between –143 and –233 degrees Celsius) thanks to a cryostat.

MOONS was developed by an international consortium led by the Science and Technology Facilities Council's UK Astronomy Technology Centre. Reflecting on his image of the unique and powerful new instrument, photographer and ESO astronomer Luca Sbordone says: “I find that these objects are beautiful, it’s a beauty that comes from the cleverness, precision, dedication and accumulated knowledge needed to make them”.

Links

Trump Administration Launches Rip-Off Video Games at Arcade.gov

A handful of Temu-style knockoffs of games like Flappy Bird, Snake (that’s the one where you round up border-crossing migrants), and, most notably, Tetris (the one where you “build a wall” to keep border-crossing migrants out) — the copyright to which is held by the notoriously litigious The Tetris Company, which tweeted:

At Tetris we believe in the power of connection and bringing people together, not dividing them. To our fans everywhere: we love you, we see you, and we’re grateful to have you in our community.

P.S. The Tetris Company was not involved in the creation of ‘Build the Wall’.

P.P.S. We take copyright infringement very seriously.

Whatever you think of these games, just like with the rebranding of Lake Ontario, Trump Arcade shows American voters that this administration is focused on their problems and concerns.

 ★ 

Gurman on Schiller’s Departure and Ternus’s Goals for the App Store

Mark Gurman, in his weekend Power On column at Bloomberg (gift link):

The Schiller exit is a bit more notable. Unlike Maestri, he still had a real job: The veteran executive ran the App Store and Apple Events. The App Store portion alone is no joke. It generates an estimated $30 billion a year and can be very challenging to manage. Apple’s app marketplace is loved by many consumers, but often criticized by developers and subjected to increasingly onerous regulations. It was a busy, all-encompassing gig and nowhere near a semiretirement. Apple Events, meanwhile, is how the company communicates its new product launches to customers. It’s also nothing close to fun and games.

Now, Schiller is 66 and clearly wanted to have some semblance of retirement. He can focus on philanthropy and spend more time with family. But there’s a bit more to the story, I’m told. Ternus and services chief Eddy Cue want to make even more money from the App Store and figure out ways to raise margins and squeeze additional recurring revenue from the platform. Schiller, on the other hand, seems to believe that such moves will only further irk developers and governments. While there was no internal blowup or anything like that, it’s something he wanted no part of.

I sure hope that’s not true, because that would be awful — making a bad situation worse — and pretty much the exact opposite of what Apple ought to do.

From the archive: Schiller, in a 2011 email to Cue and Steve Jobs:

Just as one thought, once we are making over $1B a year in profit from the App Store, is that enough to then think about a model where we ratchet down from 70/30 to 75/25 or even 80/20 if we can maintain a $1B a year run rate? I know that is controversial, I just tee it up as another way to look at the size of the business, what we want to achieve, and how we stay competitive. Again, just food for thought.

 ★ 

Dickover of the Week: Slashdot Put One in Their RSS Feed

How does this even happen? Who is this for? What possible purpose could by served by injecting a “We value your privacy” dickover into an RSS feed via iframes in the entry bodies?

 ★ 

Litterbox: Safari Extension for Viewing X Tweets

In the wake of Nitter/XCancel’s demise, here’s a delightful new Safari extension from Zhenyi Tan (of And a Dinosaur fame):

But sometimes people still post X content. Maybe you want to see Gruber roast Google Design. Maybe you want to see posts by Federico Viticci who recently returned to X. So I made Litterbox, a Safari extension that opens x.com links in a popup. The idea is you open it, take a look, gag a little, then close the lid. [...]

Litterbox doesn’t send your cookies when you open those popups, because of course. It uses the same API X uses for its website embeds. I don’t think they’ll kill the website embed feature. But if they do, it will be very funny.

I love it. I’ve got it installed even though I don’t avoid visiting X.com. It’s just faster and nicer to view tweets in Litterbox’s popup. And if I do want to proceed to X.com, there’s a link at the bottom of the popup. Perfect.

 ★ 

A.I. in health care in Paris

Here's tomorrow's conference agenda for the opening day of the  Redefining Health Care in the Age of A.I. conference in Paris.  Philippe Aghion will speak on "Should we fear AI?"
My talk is about  "Computational Intelligence and Organ Allocation on a Global Scale."

Day 1 – Tuesday 8 September

8:00 am
Opening of the Sorbonne
8:15 am
Attendee registration and welcome coffee with viennoiseries
9:15 am
Introduction by Nature Editors and PITOR Institute
Magdalena Skipper, Joao Monteiro and Alexandre Loupy
9:40 am
Day opening lecture: Should we fear AI?
Philippe Aghion – Nobel Prize Laureate
Chaired by Magdalena Skipper
10:20 am
Keynote: Computational Intelligence and Organ Allocation on a Global Scale
Alvin Roth – Nobel Prize Laureate
Chaired by Alexandre Loupy
11:00 am
Imaging and diagnostic models
Chaired by Alexandre Loupy and Sadra Bakhshandeh
11:00 am
From Pixel to Patient: AI for Multimodal Medical Imaging
Julia Schnabel
11:30 am
Foundation models bridging molecular information and pathology
Guangyu Wang
12:00 pm
Building Trustworthy AI for Clinical Decision-Making
Roxana Daneshjou
12:30 pm
Short Talk Presentation (selected from submitted abstracts)
Disparate privacy risks from medical AI: a new axis of health inequality
Moritz Knolle, Technical University of Munich (TUM)
12:45 pm
Lunch break
2:15 pm
Meet the Nature editors
Joao Monteiro, Magdalena Skipper, George Caputa, Lorenzo Righetto, Monica Wang, Ananya Rastogi, Sadra Bakhshandeh and Wanying Wang
3:15 pm
Keynote: Towards conversational diagnostic artificial intelligence
Alan Karthikesalingam
Chaired by George Caputa
3:55 pm
Coffee break
4:30 pm
Foundation models and drug discovery
Chaired by Roxana Daneshjou and George Caputa
4:30 pm
Six Aging Clocks Confirmed Biological Age Reversal in Phase IIa Trial of a Novel Therapeutic Discovered Using Aging Research and Generative AI
Alex Zhavoronkov
5:00 pm
Building AI for Biological Reasoning: Towards Biological Artificial Superintelligence
Thomas Clozel
5:30 pm
Short Talk Presentation (selected from submitted abstracts)
When AI meets the emergency department: rethinking how we evaluate clinical AI
Austin Schoeffler, Stanford University
5:45 pm
Short Talk Presentation (selected from submitted abstracts)
Testing levels of LLM agent autonomy in inpatient treatment decisions: a prospective, silent-mode evaluation of vancomycin dosing
Yixing Jiang, Stanford University & Kameron C. Black, Stanford Health Care
6:00 pm
Roundtable: Opportunities and limits in implementing AI in healthcare
Effy Vayena, Demilade Adedinsewo, Jessilyn Dunn, James Zou, and Marco Marsella

Moderated by Alexandre Loupy and George Caputa
7:00 pm
Poster session with wine and cheese

 

Meta AI Has a Native Mac App Now, and It Seems Decent

Zac Hall, writing for 9to5Mac on August 19:

The new Meta AI desktop app is version 1.0 beta at launch and weighs just 16MB once installed. Based on initial inspection, it runs natively on Apple silicon Macs with macOS 15 or later, using an AppKit and SwiftUI shell with WebKit for richer chat content. In other words, this is not an Electron app or a repackaged iPad release.

It includes Mac-specific hooks, making the desktop experience more robust than the Meta AI mobile app. Quick Invoke uses Option-Space to place a compact Meta AI composer over whatever you are doing. A separate dictation feature lets you hold a shortcut, speak, and have the resulting words typed into any app, from Mail and documents to code editors.

Meta AI can also attach another Mac window to a conversation. With Screen Recording and Accessibility permission, the app reads the window’s visible text and captures a screenshot for the next question. This is context gathering rather than computer control for now.

Passes the Settings window sniff test too — it actually has a Settings window.

Meta, institutionally, seems more keen on native Mac apps than they are native Windows apps.

 ★ 

Matt Haughey: ‘The Car Industry A/B Tested Selling a Car With and Without CarPlay and the Results Are Not Shocking’

Matt Haughey:

One case in point is the Honda Prologue EV. It’s a partnership between Honda and Chevrolet, where the Prologue is basically a Chevy Blazer EV with Honda badges, slight visual differences in the sheetmetal and interior, but all the underpinnings are straight up Chevy. Even though the keys say Honda on a Prologue, it’s a General Motors key design with a Honda logo over it.

But one big difference the Prologue has from the Blazer it is based on is this: it includes Apple CarPlay and Android Auto integration. [...]

For the years these cars were sold together, the Honda outsold the Blazer by 43%, 73%, and 166% in each time period. Today in 2026, people are buying a Honda Prologue over one and a half times more often than the Chevy Blazer EV the Prologue is based on.

It’s not a perfect test. It’s reasonable to argue that Honda has a better brand and reputation than Chevrolet, and is just plain better at selling cars. But the trendline over the last three years is pretty stark.

 ★ 

Inflation is back around the world—as is the fight against it

Central banks are raising interest rates again

Emergent Ventures winners, 59th cohort

Tym Syrytczyk, London, autonomous vehicles in the UK.

Shane Regan, Long Island, 16, AI agents.

Maximilian Kornstein, 15, Atlanta area, agents and general career support.

Irene Chen and Jessica Dai, UC Berkeley, data on peptides use.

Evan Warfel, Bay Area, updated meta-analyses through AI.

Daniel Dominguez Gomez, biomedical think tank for Mexico.

Malhaar Agrawal, U Penn., prediction markets and clinical trials.

Andrei Russel Ismael, Harvard, biomedical start-up.

Benedict Springbett, London, conference on the importance of legal issues for UK growth.

Metin Metin, Izmir, Turkey, 15, AI and brain organoid electrophysiology.

Ben Vyshedskiy, Harvard, biology podcast.

Afra Wang, Bay Area, podcast and study of Chinese AI.

Joe Hazell, LSE, AI and macroeconomics.

Anne Arno, Krakow, writing and biography.

The post Emergent Ventures winners, 59th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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A Bright Spot at Mount Michael

A small ice- and snow-covered island with an active volcanic crater at its center is surrounded by drifting pieces of sea ice. A thermal signal and small plume appear in the crater, and ash darkens the snow on the volcano’s northern slopes.
Mount Michael on Saunders Island, seen in this image acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8 on August 24, 2026, hosts a frequently active lava lake in its summit crater.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

Winter near the Antarctic Circle brings months of frozen darkness, when sea ice chokes ocean waters and many of its denizens hunker down to ride out the harsh conditions. But as winter began to release its icy grip, an uncommonly clear satellite image revealed that part of this remote realm was still very much awake, at least volcanically speaking.

Mount Michael, the stratovolcano at the center of Saunders Island, rises above the ice-filled South Atlantic Ocean in this image, acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on the NASA-USGS Landsat 8 satellite on August 24, 2026. The natural-color image is overlaid with an infrared signal (OLI bands 7-6-5), shown in red, revealing heat from the persistent lava lake in its summit crater. A puff of a volcanic plume hovering over the peak, along with darkened snow on its northern slopes, also suggests ongoing activity.

Saunders Island is one of the South Sandwich Islands, a string of small volcanic peaks about 350 kilometers (220 miles) long that formed from the South American plate subducting beneath the tiny South Sandwich plate. Regular eruptions, including at Mount Michael, have occurred on these islands in recent centuries.

Because of the volcanoes’ remoteness, scientists rely on satellite data to understand their activity. An analysis of thermal anomalies in Landsat, Sentinel, and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) observations spanning 30 years led researchers to conclude that Mount Michael hosts a persistent lava lake in its summit crater. Only a handful of other volcanoes on Earth, including Kīlauea, Nyamulagira, and Erta Ale, are known to have similar, frequently active features.

Thermal observations from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) instruments have also enabled long-term monitoring of Mount Michael. Data provided through MIROVA, a near-real-time volcanic hot spot detection system, indicate that low-intensity activity has been ongoing at the volcano for the past several years. Other observations from NASA’s Aura satellite show that emissions of sulfur dioxide and other gases are common at Mount Michael.

A series of V-shaped wave clouds appears over an ocean filled with pieces of sea ice.
Wave clouds form downwind of Saunders Island in this image acquired with the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9 on September 1, 2026.
NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

The cloud-free window over Mount Michael would close in short order. One week later, when Landsat 9 passed over the island, a more active atmosphere had returned. But the weather patterns interacted with the island to put on a spectacle of their own. The 843-meter-high (2,766-foot-high) peak jutting from the ocean disturbed passing winds to produce a series of wave clouds resembling the wake of a ship, a familiar phenomenon in this region. False-color imagery captured by NASA’s Aqua satellite indicates that a volcanic track caused by degassing sulfur dioxide was likely present as well.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Lindsey Doermann.

References & Resources

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The post A Bright Spot at Mount Michael appeared first on NASA Science.

Amazon is Polluted

I once loved Amazon. I was one of its earliest supporters—because it kept every book in stock.

For the first time in my life, I had easy access to obscure books. And—it’s my curse—I frequently read very obscure books. Before the advent of the worldwide web, I sometimes searched bookstore shelves for years before finding a desired volume. But Amazon made it possible to acquire those hard-to-get books with just the click of a mouse.

I liked this concept so much that I decided to be more than a customer. I also became a shareholder of Amazon, and almost from the start.

The company went public on May 15, 1997. I bought some shares a few weeks later—on July 17, 1997 to be precise. After adjusting for subsequent stock splits, my initial purchase price was eleven cents per share.

Today Amazon shares are trading at $258 per share.


Please support my work—by taking out a premium subscription for just $6 per month.

Subscribe now


You do the math and tell me the rate of return. I don’t want to make the calculation—if I did, I might start weeping.

That’s because I sold too early.

I didn’t rush things. I held Amazon shares for more than a decade, but that wasn’t long enough, as this chart makes clear.

Read more

German company becomes first in Europe to launch fully commercial orbital rocket

Isar Aerospace, founded in 2018 by three students at a German university, successfully launched a privately-developed rocket into low-Earth orbit Saturday from a Norwegian spaceport inside the Arctic Circle.

The two-stage rocket, named Spectrum, became the first fully commercial launch vehicle in Europe to reach orbit. With Saturday's success, Isar is the clear leader among a pack of several European launch startups vying to inject some competition into Europe's stagnant launch market.

Isar's 92-foot-tall (28-meter) Spectrum rocket lifted off at 4:12 pm EST (20:12 UTC) Saturday from Andøya Spaceport in northern Norway, where it was 10:12 pm local time as the final bluish hues of daylight faded from the late summer sky. Seven minutes later, the rocket was in orbit.

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Links 9/6/26

Links for you. Science:

How The U.S.’s Oldest Natural History Museum Might Meet Its End
How A 170-Year-Old Lizard Finally Came Home To Jamaica
There’s A New Space Telescope On Its Way To Help Answer The Biggest Question In The Universe
Who Needs Life On Mars When It Has Glacial Spiders?
New Covid Vaccines Are Available. Here’s How to Get One.
How Thursday night’s DC storms became so violent — and produced nonstop lightning
RFK Jr. ordered measles deaths deletion; CDC still secretly counts them

Other:

Pause OpenAI, now. Quite simply, they can no longer be trusted. (worth noting this isn’t a ‘tech’ issue, it’s a political and regulatory one)
The Denunciation Demand Is a Trap. Democrats Shouldn’t Fall Into It. The Hasan Piker discourse shows this is a game candidates can’t win.
What Do Booksellers Make Of “The End Of Reading”?
Hoping Someone Else Stops Trump Is Not A Plan. A whistleblower exposed his illegal scheme to cheat in the midterms, and House Democrats turned around and funded his government. It’s a bad omen for 2027.
Kalshi Lawsuit Pits States Against Trump Family’s Corruption Machine
People Who Pay Their Bills Are Suckers
CBS News Now Performing Oafish Racism On Behalf Of Bari Weiss
A humanoid sales robot appeared to turn on a customer.
Tom Dundon Isn’t Acting Alone
Six Things the Federal Film Bill Can’t Live Without
The jig is nearly up. Trump is gonna take the money and run
Steve Ballmer Betrayed His Fellow Billionaires, And They Are Not Pleased
Trump officially plans for civilian federal pay freeze in 2027
Dealing With the AI Productivity Boom: We Do Know How to Share the Wealth
Terror move backfires as ‘loser’ Proud Boys’ socialist hate collides with love for donuts
The U.N. backed a map that shows Africa true to size. The U.S. was sole objector.

In Case You Missed It…

…a week of Mad Biologist posts:

The Defense Department Just Hired an Actual Fascist

In the Next Congressional Session, Gluesenkamp Perez Needs to Be Stripped of Her Committee Positions

Trump to Close Off One of D.C.’s “First Amendment Spaces”

Another Not Bad Week for D.C.’s Crime Stats

Sunday 6 September 1663

(Lord’s day). My pill I took last night worked very well, and I lay long in bed and sweat to get away the itching all about my body from head to foot, which is beginning again as it did the last winter, and I find after I am up that it is abated. I staid at home all day and my wife also, whom, God forgive me, I staid along with me for fear of her seeing of Pembleton. But she and I entertained one another all day long with great pleasure, contriving about my wife’s closet and the bedchamber, whither we intend to go up she and I to-day.

We dined alone and supped also at night, my brother John with us, and so to prayers and to bed.

Read the annotations

In a Nutshell

Week Fifteen in 250 to 250

Last week was the fifteenth week of videos from the 250 to 250 Project that we’re producing to honor the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

Our hope was for the videos to emphasize the agency of Americans—mostly everyday Americans—to change the country. Each falls into a category that defines what it means to be an American, including community, democracy, innovation, mobility, civil rights, education, conservation, and creativity.

Every week, I try to say something new about the week’s videos, but in a way, each week’s production has been the same: a wonderful combination of my own favorite historical events and ones new to me, with narrators who fit their topics perfectly and are themselves part of America’s story. The generous participation of so many people in this project has made it significantly bigger than the sum of its parts, and this week is no exception.

You can follow the project at the sites listed below, or under “videos” at my own YouTube page: Heather Cox Richardson. Or just wait until I send out the week’s roundup.

Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
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Jane Collective, Narrated by Heather Booth

Heather Booth is an organizer and political strategist who has worked in civil rights and the feminist movement. She was a founder of the underground abortion service provider known as the Jane Collective.

Buffalo Soldiers, Narrated by Andrew J. Huebner

Dr. Andrew J. Huebner is a Professor of History at the University of Alabama who focuses on modern U.S. cultural and military history. He is a Distinguished Lecturer for the Organization of American Historians (OAH), author of the acclaimed books Love and Death in the Great War and The Warrior Image, and co-editor of The Cambridge History of War and Society in America. He is currently finishing a new history of the buffalo soldiers, the first Black regular army units in US history, established by Congress in 1866.

Coit Tower, Narrated by Mayor Daniel Lurie

Daniel Lurie is San Francisco’s 46th Mayor. He has focused on public safety, building housing, getting people off the streets and on a path to stability, and San Francisco’s long-term economic recovery. He honors the murals in San Francisco’s Coit Tower, which portray the lives and histories of everyday Americans.

New Amsterdam, Narrated by Mayor Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani is the 112th Mayor of the City of New York. He previously represented the 36th New York State Assembly District and its neighborhoods of Astoria, Ditmars-Steinway, and Astoria Heights. Here, Mamdani recounts the history of the colony that, in 1665, would become New York.

Appalachian Trail, Narrated by Tyler, Ryan, and Clay Hereth

The Brothers Three—Tyler, Ryan, and Clay Hereth—completed a southbound thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail together July 16 to November 22, 2011. Their history of the Appalachian Trail is a reminder of the importance of volunteerism and environmental stewardship.

Roberto Clemente, Narrated by Amna Nawaz

Award-winning journalist Amna Nawaz is co-anchor and co-managing editor of the PBS News Hour. Her reporting spans politics, foreign affairs, immigration, culture and sports. Nawaz profiles Roberto Clemente, the Puerto Rican baseball legend whose brilliance on the field was matched by the humanitarianism that led to his tragic death.

Memphis Sanitation Workers’ Strike, Narrated by Representative Justin Pearson

Tennessee State Representative Justin Pearson is a prominent progressive American activist and politician best known for being the co-founder of Memphis Community Against Pollution and as a member of the “Tennessee Three.” He is currently a candidate for U.S. Congress. Here he tells the story of the historic labor strike in 1968 that would be the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s final campaign.

Jerome Tiger, Narrated by Dana Tiger

Dana Tiger is an award-winning, internationally acclaimed artist known for her watercolors and acrylic paintings depicting the strength and determination of Native American women. Dana’s paintings are exhibited nationwide. She celebrates the legacy of her father, Jerome Tiger, a celebrated and influential Muscogee/Seminole artist.

Black Wall Street, Narrated by Kahlil Greene

Kahlil Greene, the “Gen-Z Historian,” is a well known digital educator, Peabody Award winner, and two-time Emmy nominee with an audience of over 50 million views across TikTok, Instagram, and author of History Can’t Hide on Substack. He recounts the history— including the destruction— of Tulsa, Oklahoma’s Greenwood District, a prosperous African American community known as “Black Wall Street.”

Alexander Hamilton, Narrated by David Erickson

Dr. David Erickson, senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, leads a team focused on community development, seeking ways to increase investments in low-income communities. Erickson has a PhD in history from UC Berkeley. Alexander Hamilton’s work laid the foundation for central banking in the United States and, eventually, for the Federal Reserve.

Frederick Law Olmsted, Narrated by Nicholas Stubblefield

Nicholas Stubblefield, a proud former member of the Heather Cox Richardson posse, is a writer and stand-up comedian based in Boston. He’s won awards, though none that you’ve heard of. Idaho is home. He celebrates landscape architect, author, conservationist and public servant, Frederick Law Olmsted, who designed some of America’s most celebrated landmarks, from New York’s Central Park to the U.S. Capitol Grounds and Chicago’s Jackson Park.

North Dakota’s Historic Mosque, Narrated by Aymann Ismail

Award-winning Senior writer at Slate, Aymann Ismail is an author, and president of the Arab and Middle Eastern Journalists Association. His work has appeared in the New York Times and GQ, and on CNN and NPR. He tells the story of one of the nation’s first mosques, built outside the tiny town of Ross, North Dakota.

G.I. Bill, Narrated by Colin Makoto Craig

Colin Makoto Craig is a fourth generation veteran who served in the US Air Force. With the G.I. Bill, he graduated from Cornell University and is a JD candidate at St. John’s University. Craig examines how the G.I. Bill reshaped postwar America, sending millions of veterans to college and into the middle class.

Emancipation Proclamation, Narrated by Thavolia Glymph

Dr. Thavolia Glymph is an author and a professor of history and law at Duke University. Her research, writing, and teaching focus on slavery, emancipation, Reconstruction, labor, and women in the U.S South. Signed by Abraham Lincoln on January 1, 1863, the Emancipation Proclamation declared that all enslaved people living in territory controlled by the Confederate States of America were legally free and allowed Black men to join the U.S. Army.

Transcontinental Railroad, Narrated by Lina Khan

Lina Khan served as chair of the Federal Trade Commission from June 2021 to January 2025. She teaches and writes about antitrust law, infrastructure industries law, the antimonopoly tradition, and law and political economy. Here, she captures the complicated story of America’s first transcontinental railroad.

Bill Russell, Narrated by Chuck Cooper III

Chuck Cooper III is President and CEO of the Chuck Cooper Foundation, which honors and carries forward the legacy of his father, Naismith Basketball Hall of Famer Chuck Cooper, the first African American drafted into the NBA. He celebrates the life of activist and athlete, basketball’s Bill Russell.

Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Narrated by Hillary Clinton

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made history as the first First Lady elected to the United States Senate, and in her run for president in 2016. A lawyer, an author, and a staunch advocate for women, children, and families, she is an active force for progress and human rights. She recalls Eleanor Roosevelt’s leadership role in creating The Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), a milestone document in the history of human rights.


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September 5, 2026

Events of Friday, September 4, showed the Trump administration in a nutshell.

U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani of the District of Massachusetts blocked Trump’s plan to use the United States Postal Service to screen mail-in voters. Referring to the final rule the USPS is trying to put into place, Talwani wrote: “Unauthorized by the Elections Clause, the Final Rule clashes with Congress’s statutory scheme, and is unconstitutional where it intrudes not only on Congress’s Elections Clause powers but also that power left to the States.”

In other words, the plan is both illegal and unconstitutional.

As Jacob Knutson and Jim Saksa of Democracy Docket reported, Talwani was responding to a lawsuit over the plan brought by groups defending the right to vote, including the League of Women Voters of Massachusetts and Democratic attorneys general from 24 states and the District of Columbia. Talwani agreed that the rule threatens the voting rights of millions of American citizens.

Hours after Judge Talwani’s order, the Trump administration asked U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols to permit the rule to go into effect, claiming it simply “imposes modest informational requirements on senders of outbound federal ballot mailings.” Contradicting Talwani, the Department of Justice lawyers claimed: “The Rule does not displace a single State election law. And it need not and should not prevent a single voter from voting by mail.”

Meanwhile, a day after Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced the administration was starting work on the 250-foot (76-meter) triumphal arch Trump wants in Washington, D.C., U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan ordered the administration to give the court at least 48 hours’ notice before doing anything except dig pits to identify cultural artifacts at the site. She noted that in April the administration agreed to provide 14 days’ notice before any construction started, an agreement ordered by the court.

Burgum’s announcement suggested the administration is pushing the project forward without going through any of the required permitting or obeying the law that requires Congress to pass a law allowing another memorial in the protected area of Washington, D.C., known as Area I.

Questioned about the war in Iran, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Friday that it is actually not a war but “a military conflict because it’s small potatoes for us.” He compared the Iran war, which is in its sixth month without congressional authorization of any sort and has taken the lives of 18 U.S. service members, to the much longer Vietnam War which he claimed took more than 100,000 service members’ lives (the Department of Defense says the actual number was 58,220).

Trump also denied that military personnel are seeing record long deployments, and insisted that the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz. He turned back to the argument that the war was to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, although those discussions now appear to be off the table as the U.S. tries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Jonathan Swan, Adam Entous, Maggie Haberman, and Eric Schmitt of the New York Times reported on Friday that although Trump and members of the administration insist that reports of a shortage of crucial munitions are a lie, government investigators forced about 50 members of the U.S. military’s Joint Staff—about 2,000 officials who coordinate operations and policy with commanders around the world—to take lie detector tests to determine if they had been the source of the leaks to journalists.

The journalists note that such a proceeding is unprecedented and comes as Hegseth works harder and harder to control information coming from the Pentagon. “Mass polygraph tests have never been administered to the top ranks of the U.S. military in modern history,” they write.

Also on Friday, Catie Edmondson and Carolyn Y. Johnson reported in the New York Times that the Defense Department and the National Institutes of Health have signed an agreement providing a framework to collaborate on biodefense and pandemic preparedness. According to officials who spoke with the reporters, the deal could mean moving as much as $2 billion from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases—roughly one-third the budget of the agency Dr. Anthony Fauci used to run—to the Pentagon.

Amidst reports that the Navy has run out of money, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been trying unsuccessfully to push through Congress a short-term injection of $350 billion on top of the additional $150 billion congressional Republicans gave the Pentagon last year. Senator Patty Murray of Washington, the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, accused the Defense Department of “trying to rob N.I.H. of billions of dollars that Congress provided for medical research so that it can pad the Pentagon’s budget.”

NIH director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya appeared to confirm the agreement when he posted on social media that “far from siphoning money away from research, this partnership between [NIH] and [the Defense Department] focuses on research projects that will drive discoveries to improve the health of American citizens and members of the military.”

In the White House on Friday, Trump appeared to misunderstand not only that since World War II trade has made the United States wealthy, but also the concept of trade itself. “We could do tremendous good for ourselves by just not trading with other countries,” he said. “We lose with Mexico $195 billion a year. They have nothing that we have to have, I mean, hot tamales, tomatoes, a couple of things.”

Aside from the fact the U.S. imports machinery, agricultural products, vehicles, auto parts, electronics, and so on from Mexico, readers on social media noted: “The trade deficit is not a debt, it does not represent losing money to the other country. It means more goods were imported from it than exported to it. Why has to do with many factors, mainly the United States has more highly paid, skilled, and educated service workers.”

On Friday, the White House debuted computer games on the official White House website. The “games” are ripoffs of older games like Snake, this one with a white man in a suit picking up Black, Asian, and Latino men and putting them in orange jumpsuits. There was also apparently one ripping off Tetris, which was apparently about building Trump’s wall, but it disappeared as the real Tetris posted: “At Tetris we believe in the power of connection and bringing people together, not dividing them. To our fans everywhere: we love you, we see you, and we’re grateful to have you in our community.

“P.S. The Tetris Company was not involved in the creation of ‘Build the Wall’.

“P.P.S. We take copyright infringement very seriously.”

On Friday, September 4, the administration also reiterated its determination to roll back environmental protections, proposing a new rule that would end protections against pollution and industrial impacts for a significant number of streams and wetlands. As Zahra Hirji of Bloomberg reported, the Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers proposed redefining which bodies of water would qualify for federal protection.

Also on Friday, the United Nations General Assembly voted 164–1, with six countries abstaining, for a resolution changing the world map to more accurately reflect the sizes of the continents. As Jewel Bright of NPR reports, the commonly-used Mercator projection, created by Flemish cartographer Gerardus Mercator in 1569, was designed to enable navigators to plot courses on the straight lines of compass bearings. It distorts the size of landmasses, making the ones closest to the poles disproportionately large, while areas close to the Equator—like Africa—are shown as significantly smaller than they really are.

The African Group, made up of 54 African member states, introduced the resolution, which is not binding but will put the weight of the U.N. behind a different map projection that shows the continent sizes much more accurately. The United States was the only country to vote against the measure.

Also on Friday, Joe Sommerlad of the Independent confirmed reporting from the Washington Examiner the day before that, according to a White House official, First Lady Melania Trump will not attend Trump’s novel midterm convention next week in Dallas. She joins at least 45 Republican lawmakers who told Mia McCarthy, Meredith Lee Hill, and Jordain Carney of Politico they are steering clear of participating in an event with the deeply unpopular president for which tickets for Republican lawmakers start at $25,000.

One lawmaker called the event “a waste of time,” explaining: “You shouldn’t be having to rally your base at this point. You should be trying to convince independents. Independents are not attending nor watching the midterm convention.” Republican National Committee press secretary Natalie Baldassarre countered that “the outreach and enthusiasm to attend, participate, and speak at this historic midterm convention has been incredible.”

In an interview with Ben Terris of New York Magazine published Friday, Trump agreed that Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) was right to say that he was putting his name on things now because nobody else will when he’s gone. “That’s true,” Trump told Terris. “Nobody will do it once I’m gone. When I leave here, nobody will.”

Notes:

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/in-major-win-for-voters-judge-blocks-trumps-mail-voting-restrictions-for-midterms/

https://www.hepburnadvocate.com.au/story/9344385/judge-reinforces-order-barring-work-on-trump-arch/

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2627568/judge-reinforces-order-barring-immediate-work-on-trump-arch-in-washington

https://www.npr.org/2026/09/04/nx-s1-5958611/africa-world-map-un-vote

https://dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/conflictCasualties/vietnam/vietnamSum

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-doj-asks-judge-to-let-usps-mail-voting-restrictions-take-effect-despite-another-courts-block/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/melania-trump-skipping-republican-midterms-convention-b3044892.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/02/gop-midterm-convention-attendance-01061286

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/04/us/politics/pentagon-nih-biodefense-agreement.html

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-trade-2677823349/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/04/us/politics/pentagon-staff-polygraph-tests.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-admits-putting-name-everything-185941307.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-04/new-trump-proposal-further-limits-us-water-protections

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/epa-clean-water-act-protections-trump/

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/donald-trump-white-house-ballroom-helipad-reflecting-pool-supreme-court.html

X:

JenniferJJacobs/status/2095868763803463746

Acyn/status/2095946361749565609

Bluesky:

ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3muq6rdcyuk2m

parkermolloy.com/post/3munppnop3k2z

whstancil.bsky.social/post/3muri4yfo6s2u

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thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3muq5olabi227

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Insurance price sentences to ponder

NYU Stern researcher @NateWitkin questions why cyber insurance rates keep falling if AI cyber risk is accelerating:

“Insurance rates for cyber risk declined by about 4% globally in Q2 of this year, and that’s actually the 12th consecutive quarter in which they’ve declined. This is very valuable signal that implies that at a minimum you shouldn’t overindex on the Hugging Face incident.”

“This is a plea for level headedness, but I think it would be helpful for safety folks to engage with these numbers just ’cause this is an avenue of criticism from folks like me and to an extent folks like Tyler.”

“Why are these numbers not moving? Is it because people are underestimating capabilities? Are they not taking the problem even as close to as seriously as they should or is it something else?”

Here is the link with video.  File under “Questions that are all too rarely asked.”

I am happy to admit that the answers here are far from obvious, and that I am myself expecting prices to rise somewhat.

I will continue to note that there are a remarkable number of ways, seen among other places on Twitter, to rephrase and to rationalize the statement: “I have the most remarkable and important and true macro risk story in the world to tell you.  Unfortunately, it does not correlate with any observed asset market prices.”

The post Insurance price sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The Curiously Playable Universe

In 2024, Google DeepMind’s AlphaProof solved three of the five non-geometry problems at the International Mathematical Olympiad. Unlike a chatbot producing a plausible-looking derivation in prose, AlphaProof worked in Lean, a formal mathematical language in which proofs can be mechanically checked. It trained by proving or disproving millions of mathematical problems, receiving an unusually clean signal each time: either the proof checked out or it didn’t.


Starting with this essay, I will no longer be explicitly declaring AI use, or segregating my AI-assisted writing in a separate experimental section. You should assume by default that I’m using AI. See my revised About page for a detailed update on my AI use philosophy.


This looked like another frontier falling to artificial intelligence. Chess had fallen, then Go, then protein folding, then programming, and now serious mathematics appeared to be giving way too. Mathematics is among the activities we most strongly associate with the mysterious upper reaches of human intelligence, so perhaps the obvious conclusion was that AI was climbing toward those reaches.

But there is another way to look at what happened.

AlphaProof did not encounter mathematics in the wild. It encountered a landscape that humans had spent more than a century converting into something increasingly like a game.

In Lean, a mathematical proposition is represented as a type and a proof as a term of that type. A proof assistant helps construct the term and a small kernel verifies it. Around this core has grown Mathlib, a vast library of definitions, structures, lemmas and proofs. AI theorem-proving systems can be presented with a proof state, retrieve potentially useful premises, propose a move, and learn from whether Lean accepts it. LeanDojo makes this structure explicit enough that a language model can take a proof state as input and generate tactics, with premise selection treated as a retrieval problem.

This is an extraordinarily congenial environment for machine learning. There are states. There are moves. There is accumulated knowledge about good moves. There is a terminal condition. Above all, there is a verifier.

Mathematics did not begin this way.

For centuries it was practiced as something closer to a wilderness craft. There were proofs, of course, and sometimes extraordinary rigor. But mathematical activity also involved diagrams, geometric intuition, physical analogy, tricks of notation, special cases, inspired constructions and forms of tacit judgment that were not cleanly separated from one another.

Probability is an obvious example. People did sophisticated probability for centuries before Kolmogorov supplied its modern measure-theoretic foundations. You do not need sigma algebras to reason correctly about dice. But once probability is represented in terms of measures, measurable spaces and random variables, enormous families of apparently different problems become inhabitants of the same mathematical architecture.

What happened over the twentieth century was not simply that mathematics became more rigorous. It became increasingly playable.

And that may tell us something important not merely about mathematics, or artificial intelligence, but about the world.

The Wilderness Before the Game

The foundational disputes of the early twentieth century are usually remembered as philosophical arguments about what mathematics really is.

David Hilbert represented one pole. Mathematics could be rendered explicit through axioms and formal rules. The dream, in its strongest form, was that mathematical reasoning might be made sufficiently precise that proofs could be treated as formal objects and mathematics could establish the reliability of its own methods.

L. E. J. Brouwer went almost exactly the other way. For Brouwer, mathematics was fundamentally an activity of construction in the mind. Mathematical activity preceded language. Formal language described mathematics after the fact; it did not constitute mathematics. Logic itself was downstream of mathematical activity rather than its foundation.

Brouwer was hardly arguing for looseness. Intuitionism is in some respects more conservative than classical mathematics. An existence claim should correspond to an actual construction. One could not freely use the law of excluded middle to assert that one of two possibilities must hold without establishing which. The strange combination was radical freedom on the creative side and severe discipline on the assertion side: mathematics begins wild and ends conservative.

Brouwer lost, at least institutionally. Mainstream mathematics did not abandon classical logic or nonconstructive proof. The mathematical world that followed was much more recognizably descended from Hilbert’s side of the argument.

But something unexpected also happened to axiomatics. Axioms escaped from the constitutional court of mathematics and entered the workshop.

Groups, fields, topological spaces, measure spaces and other abstract structures increasingly became ordinary working tools. Bourbaki turned structural organization into something like a program for mathematics. Category theory made mappings among structures into mathematical objects in their own right.

And then Grothendieck demonstrated, through his “mansions” approach, just how far this could go.

Grothendieck’s characteristic approach to a difficult problem was famously contrasted with attacking a hard nut using a hammer and chisel. His preferred metaphor was a rising sea. Rather than concentrating force on the theorem, one develops a sufficiently broad theory around it that eventually the water rises and the problem disappears beneath the surface.

This represents an extraordinary migration of mathematical creativity. The heroic mathematical act need no longer be finding the ingenious sequence of moves that cracks one difficult theorem. It can be inventing the mathematical world in which an entire family of difficult theorems becomes ordinary.

The axiom has changed roles. It is no longer merely a declaration about the foundations of legitimate mathematics. It increasingly resembles an interface. Once an object satisfies the interface, general machinery becomes available.

Yesterday’s mathematical creativity becomes today’s mathematical infrastructure.

This is one reason Lean is possible in its current form. The foundations matter, but foundations alone would not give an AI a tractable mathematical world to play in. A machine forced to reduce ordinary mathematics continually to primitive logical operations would face a terrible search problem.

Instead it inherits the accumulated architecture of twentieth-century mathematics.

A proof state might amount, conceptually, to something like:

G : Group
H : Subgroup G
x y : G
x ∈ H
y ∈ H
----------------
x · y ∈ H

The words Group and Subgroup are doing enormous amounts of compressed work. They locate the problem in a structured mathematical world. Relevant operations exist. Relevant general theorems exist. Other facts can be inferred from the structures involved.

A theorem prover does not search the space of all possible sequences of logical symbols. It plays inside a world humans have painstakingly designed.

This makes recent achievements in AI mathematics look slightly different.

Perhaps we have been too quick to interpret them as evidence that AI has acquired access to the wild source of mathematical intuition. A significant part of the achievement may instead be that humans spent a century converting increasingly large regions of mathematical wilderness into exceptionally good game boards: semi-closed environments in which the relevant state can be represented, legitimate moves can be made, accumulated technique can be reused, and success can be verified.

Three Roads to the Same City

Something remarkably similar happened in programming.

The history is not a neat progression from procedural programming to object-oriented programming to functional programming. These traditions overlap, recur and borrow from one another. But there has nevertheless been a long upward migration in where programming ingenuity is invested.

At the lowest level, the programmer specifies machine behavior. Memory locations, instructions and control flow are immediately visible. Higher-level languages make those details somebody else’s problem. Structured programming, abstract data types, modules, objects, functional composition, type systems and declarative languages each move some portion of the creative burden away from specifying execution and toward designing representations.

The most revealing programming maxim might be:

Find the representation in which the algorithm becomes stupid.

A database query is an obvious everyday case. Instead of telling a computer how to traverse records, you specify the result you want and let a query planner decide how to produce it.

Type systems perform a related trick. A sufficiently powerful type system does not merely describe data. It defines a world of legitimate transformations. Illegal programs become unrepresentable, or at least harder to represent.

Creativity migrates from individual instructions toward algorithms, from algorithms toward representations, and from representations toward architectures and specifications.

Physics followed another road to much the same place.

Newtonian mechanics invites you to identify forces and calculate their effects. Lagrangian mechanics replaces much of this local bookkeeping with generalized coordinates and a variational principle. Hamiltonian mechanics lifts the problem again into phase space, where dynamics become trajectories generated by a Hamiltonian.

These transformations do not make Newton wrong. They find representations in which large families of Newtonian calculations become easier to generate and relate.

At the engineering end of the story, specialized formalisms such as Kane’s equations allow complicated multibody systems to be represented in ways suited to computational generation of equations of motion. Modern CAD and simulation software can automate work that once demanded formidable manual calculation.

And the paths are now converging literally. Physlib is an active project to formalize physics in Lean, including definitions, theorems and calculations, with the explicit ambition of making physics more accessible to formal verification and AI reasoning.

Across mathematics, programming and physics, the same pattern keeps appearing. First there is clever performance. Then somebody finds a representation that captures what the clever performers are doing. Then general machinery accumulates around the representation. Then the machinery becomes architecture. Eventually much of the play becomes mechanical.

The creativity has not disappeared. It has moved.

The Price of a Game Board

There is an obvious objection to this story.

Perhaps what I am describing as progress is merely legibility.

James C. Scott famously described the tendency of modern states to simplify complicated social and natural realities into representations that administrators can see and manipulate: cadastral maps, standardized names, scientific forests, censuses, planned cities.

The representation is useful precisely because it throws things away. A forest seen by a forester interested in timber yield is not the forest experienced by the people, animals, fungi and plants living in it. The administrative forest has become extraordinarily legible along a narrow set of dimensions by becoming blind along others.

Every game performs a similar operation. Before you can play, you must decide what the pieces are. You must decide what constitutes the state of the game, what counts as a move, what consequences follow from moves, and what counts as winning. Everything else becomes environment.

A rigid body in a mechanical simulation is not actually rigid. A point mass is not a point. A frictionless surface does not exist. A program described by its types still runs on processors with caches and memory hierarchies. A theorem encoded in Lean does not contain the diagram that gave somebody the idea for it.

Formalization is compression.

In physics this is explicit. Reality becomes a model, the model becomes mathematics, and the mathematics becomes a numerical representation. Information is discarded at every step.

The miracle is not that nothing is lost. The miracle is how often we can throw almost everything away and still retain what matters.

Pure mathematics is an unusually favorable case because mathematical objects can, to a large extent, be constituted by their definitions. There is no hidden physical essence of groupness that escapes the group axioms.

Programming sits somewhere in the middle. Software is built from formal artifacts, but it runs on physical machines and encounters users and environments that continually leak through its abstractions.

Physics is less forgiving. Nature exists independently of the model. Every physical theory has a regime in which its simplifications fail.

Social systems are worse still because the things being represented can notice the representation and change their behavior in response.

So playability is not free. It is purchased by closure.

But closure need not be total, and the useful question is not whether a representation is lossy. Almost every interesting representation is lossy. The question is whether it preserves the invariants required for the game we want to play.

Good science is disciplined lossy compression. High modernism begins when we forget the compression happened.

Brouwer’s Wilderness

This makes Brouwer look unexpectedly contemporary.

If mathematics were exhausted by formal derivation, then the ultimate mathematical machine would simply be a sufficiently powerful engine for producing verified proofs. But human mathematics plainly has another side.

A mathematical idea might begin with a diagram, a mechanical analogy, a linguistic metaphor, a visual pattern, a joke, or perhaps even a poem. Somebody notices that one kind of thing somehow behaves like another kind of thing. At this stage the analogy can be wrong.

Indeed, mathematical creativity often seems to begin with a productive type error: This algebra is behaving like a geometry. This transformation looks like a flow. This symmetry feels like a conservation law.

The job of subsequent mathematics is partly to determine whether there is a precise statement hiding inside the illicit comparison.

This suggests an important asymmetry. A productive mathematical ecology wants porous epistemic boundaries and impermeable verification boundaries. On the way in, metaphor, hallucination and category mistakes can be useful. On the way out, they are forbidden.

A poem can inspire the theorem. The poem cannot prove it.

What Makes a World Playable?

We can now say more precisely what has been happening.

A domain becomes playable when enough of its phenomenological complexity can be compressed into something like a state; when there is some reasonably stable repertoire of actions; when interactions can be repeated; when outcomes provide feedback about better and worse play; and when the environment is stationary enough that lessons learned yesterday remain useful tomorrow.

None of these conditions needs to be perfect. Poker contains hidden information. Markets change their own rules. Hunting happens in an uncontrolled environment. Conversation does not have an explicit score.

Playability is a matter of degree.

Nor is playability the same as formalizability.

Children learn social games without writing axioms. Hunters learn landscapes. Merchants learn markets. Political operators learn institutions. Formalization is merely one unusually powerful technology for increasing playability.

So are money, measurement, domestication, standardization, simulation, bureaucracy and digitization. They do related things. They compress states. They stabilize interactions. They make outcomes comparable. They create memory. They allow experience to accumulate.

This suggests a hypothesis:

Far more of reality than we might reasonably have expected can be carved into semi-closed environments in which experience accumulates, performance improves through repeated play, and success eventually becomes sufficiently legible to automate.

Call this the Curiously Playable Universe hypothesis.

It is not logically necessary that the world should be like this. We might have inhabited a universe in which useful phenomena depended so sensitively on context, hidden variables, history and holistic entanglement that abstraction reliably destroyed the very thing we hoped to understand.

Instead we repeatedly discover that crude state representations preserve astonishing amounts of useful causal structure.

Physics is perhaps the deepest evidence. Nature keeps admitting conserved quantities, symmetries, equations of motion, state spaces, effective theories and transformations between representations.

We keep finding game boards.

Wild, Domesticated, Automatic

Once a playable regime exists, a characteristic evolutionary sequence seems to follow.

There is first a wilderness: rich, incompletely represented, difficult to repeat, dependent on tacit skill. Parts of the wilderness become legible. Legibility allows domestication. States become more stable. Moves become repeatable. Techniques accumulate. Specialists emerge. Performance becomes measurable.

A mature game appears.

The mature game attracts optimization. Techniques become methods. Methods become procedures. Procedures become machinery.

Eventually some sufficiently stable portion of the game becomes automatic.

But automation does not end play. It moves the frontier.

The resulting arc looks something like:

wilderness → legibilization → domestication → optimization → automation → meta-game.

The last transition is the important one.

Once arithmetic is automatic, mathematicians play with higher mathematics. Once compilers automate machine instruction, programmers play with larger software architectures. Once CAD systems automate large amounts of mechanical calculation, engineers play with more complicated machines.

If Lean and AI make formal proof dramatically cheaper, mathematicians can spend proportionately more effort deciding what should be defined and which mathematical worlds are worth constructing.

The old game becomes a piece in a new game.

This is a different picture of technological progress from the usual story of ever-increasing intelligence.

Intelligence is usually imagined as a rising flood. As it rises, it reaches chess, then programming, then mathematics, then science, until eventually there is nowhere human cognition can stand above the waterline.

But perhaps the important process is happening to the terrain.

We are getting better at building game boards.

Go Lives

In July 2026, something happened in Go that nicely exposes the difference.

Shin Jin-seo, the world’s strongest human Go player, played a three-game match against KataGo, a superhuman open-source Go engine. Shin received a two-stone handicap. He lost the first game and won the next two.

This did not mean humanity had caught up with Go AI. Two stones represent a substantial advantage, and KataGo was running under particular time and hardware constraints.

What was interesting was how Shin played.

He was not simply trying to calculate better than KataGo. In the winning games he used his advantage to simplify. He chose familiar sequences, avoided unnecessary complexity, and spent points in exchange for making the future game easier to control. In Frank Lantz’s account of the match, Go teacher Nate Morse describes a particularly interesting asymmetry: Shin could know that he was playing KataGo and reason about KataGo’s characteristic behavior, while KataGo’s representation of the situation did not comparably include “I am playing Shin Jin-seo, a human who has spent years studying these patterns and studying AI.” (franklantz.substack.com)

Shin was playing Go. But he was also playing KataGo-playing-Go.

The distinction matters because Go is one of the cleanest closed games humans have invented. Yet even here the surrounding ecology remained open enough to generate a new level of strategy.

There is a wonderful complication.

Researchers have also discovered bizarre adversarial strategies that exploit KataGo’s weaknesses, including a cyclic-group strategy that could defeat versions of superhuman KataGo at extremely high rates. But that exploit was not discovered by a poetically open human intelligence. It was discovered by another specialized Go-playing system.

Closure, therefore, does not imply sterility. Go contains its own wilderness. A sufficiently exploratory closed system can find strange territory that humans never visited.

But Shin had access to something else: the ability to treat the supposedly complete game as an object inside a larger game.

The Protein That Doesn’t Read Poetry

AlphaFold gives us the opposite lesson: AlphaFold does not need to read poetry.

The original AlphaFold2 system takes protein sequence information, evolutionary information from related sequences, and where available structural templates, and predicts three-dimensional protein structure.

This is an extremely specialized world. And specialization is precisely what makes it powerful.

Protein space is not impoverished merely because it excludes Shakespeare. Evolution has already filled it with an enormous internal wilderness of structures, motifs, interactions and constraints.

A closed domain can contain more than enough variation to support profound discovery. So the lesson cannot simply be that open systems are creative and closed systems are sterile.

Closure enables deep exploitation. Openness supplies another source of mutation.

A mathematics-only AI might discover extraordinary structures latent within existing mathematics. A multimodal AI exposed to physics, images, code, music and language might occasionally import a bizarre analogy that would never arise from endogenous mathematical search.

The useful architecture may therefore have different regimes:

open generator → semi-closed game → closed verifier.

We should not expect the same cognitive style to be optimal at every stage. The verifier should not behave like a poet. The poet should not behave like a verifier.

We Were Doing This Before AI

If playability were merely a property of AI-friendly digital environments, none of this would be particularly interesting.

But the pattern is ancient. Consider agriculture.

Hunting and gathering takes place in a relatively wild learning environment. Animals move. Weather changes. Useful plants appear where they appear. The training distribution is supplied by nature.

Agriculture does something profound to the learning problem: It changes the environment.

Fields stabilize locations. Planting stabilizes cycles. Domestication alters organisms. Irrigation alters water availability. Storage alters time. Property regimes and markets stabilize incentives.

Humans did not merely become better at learning nature. They made nature easier to learn.

The wild game becomes domesticated.

Eventually industrial agriculture pushes large portions of the process toward automaticity: standardized breeds, standardized feed, controlled environments, mechanized planting and harvesting, precisely measured yields.

Then the game moves upward.

Instead of merely optimizing how an organism is cultivated, we begin optimizing the organism itself. Selective breeding becomes genetics becomes genomic selection and genetic engineering.

The old player becomes a game piece.

It is tempting to map this progression onto contemporary machine-learning terminology. Hunting looks vaguely like reinforcement learning in a difficult environment. Agriculture introduces something like shaped rewards and a controlled training distribution. Factory farming begins to resemble a regime of relentless verification against measurable outputs.

The analogy should not be pushed too literally. Human cultures have always involved teaching, imitation, norms and complicated reward systems.

But structurally the direction is unmistakable: increasing control over the state representation, action space, feedback signal and training distribution.

Commerce underwent another version of the transformation.

Exchange begins embedded in relationships, obligations, reputation, kinship and local knowledge. Credit can be intensely personal. Value is contextual.

Money performs an astonishing act of compression.

Heterogeneous goods and obligations become comparable through a common medium. Markets then stabilize arenas in which repeated exchange produces prices. Accounting makes states more legible. Contracts formalize future obligations.

Eventually finance builds games on top of the game.

A derivative can be a claim on the future value of another asset. Options put prices on possible future prices. Markets become arenas for expectations about expectations.

Play moves upward.

None of this required artificial intelligence. Humans have been turning wildernesses into games for thousands of years.

The Falling Price of Game Construction

What AI changes is the cost of achieving playability in a domain.

Historically, making a domain playable was expensive. Somebody had to invent the categories. Somebody had to measure the variables. Somebody had to standardize the procedures. Somebody had to construct the institutions that made interactions repeatable.

And the resulting representation had to be relatively explicit because ordinary software was brittle.

Machine learning relaxes that requirement.

A neural network can learn useful state representations that nobody has completely specified. A language model can operate in linguistic environments whose rules cannot be written down. Multimodal models can consume images, sound and video. Reward models can approximate judgments for which no crisp objective function exists.

At the other extreme, reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can exploit domains where correctness is exceptionally crisp.

AlphaProof makes the convergence almost comically literal. DeepMind took an AlphaZero-style reinforcement-learning approach descended from game-playing systems and put it inside Lean. The formal mathematical environment supplies mechanically verifiable outcomes; the system learns through repeated attempts.

The important consequence may be that AI lowers the minimum playability threshold at which industrialized learning becomes worthwhile.

Yesterday a domain had to be carefully formalized before machines could operate effectively inside it. Today it merely has to be learnably regular.

That greatly enlarges the territory susceptible to game construction.

New Game Boards Everywhere

Coding is perhaps the clearest domain currently passing through the transition.

Programming was unusually playable before generative AI arrived.

Compilers already supplied verifiers. Type systems constrained legal moves. Unit tests supplied rewards. Version control recorded trajectories. Continuous integration repeatedly evaluated outcomes. Package ecosystems created enormous libraries of reusable moves.

Generative coding systems arrived in a landscape generations of programmers had inadvertently prepared for them.

As implementation becomes cheaper, the game moves upward toward specifications, architectures, product decisions and the increasingly important question of what software should exist in the first place.

Robotics is a more difficult frontier.

The physical world is phenomenologically unruly. Objects deform. Friction varies. Things break. Lighting changes. People walk into rooms. Drawers stick.

Simulation, cheap sensors, multimodal models and increasingly capable world models are gradually making physical environments more playable, but reality continually leaks through the representation.

This is why robotics may be one of the most important tests of the Curiously Playable Universe hypothesis.

Can enough of ordinary physical reality be compressed into stable learned representations to permit the same cycle of domestication and automation?

Science will probably fragment according to playability rather than according to our traditional rankings of intellectual difficulty.

Protein structure turned out to be unusually playable.

Drug discovery is less so because chemical promise must survive biology, organisms, clinical trials and human heterogeneity. Materials discovery may become increasingly playable through the combination of simulation and automated laboratories. Ecology may remain stubbornly wild because every useful abstraction excludes interactions operating at another scale.

Medicine contains both extremes. Image interpretation and molecular design can be made relatively game-like. Caring for an elderly person with five interacting conditions, family constraints and changing preferences is another matter.

Governance may become a particularly strange frontier.

States have spent centuries making populations legible through names, addresses, laws, property records, taxes, censuses, bureaucratic categories and standardized procedures. In that sense the modern administrative state is already a vast game-making machine.

AI will make more of its internal operations automatic.

But political systems contain an unusual source of wilderness: the pieces know they are pieces.

People respond strategically to measurements, categories and incentives. A rule changes the behavior it was intended to regulate. A metric becomes a target and stops being a good metric (Goodhart’s Law). Political actors learn to play the machinery designed to make them legible.

This may push governance upward toward new games involving states themselves: transnational protocols, financial systems, supply chains, standards regimes, platform governance and other structures that do not fit comfortably inside the old nation-state game board.

Some domains may resist for much longer.

Child-rearing is difficult to make playable because the objective changes as the child changes. Friendship has no stable score. Diplomacy involves adversaries whose models include models of your model of them. Entrepreneurship often consists precisely of discovering a game nobody realized existed.

Frontier science operates where we do not yet know which measurements matter. Cultural creation is evaluated by audiences who change partly because of the works being evaluated. Political legitimacy is altered by attempts to measure and optimize it.

These are not necessarily domains AI cannot enter. They are domains in which the wilderness fights back.

A Million Theorems Falling in a Forest

Suppose an AI generates a million previously unknown Lean theorems. Each theorem is correct. Each proof passes the kernel.

Has a million theorems’ worth of mathematics happened?

Something certainly has.

But imagine that nobody—human or machine—finds the results interesting. They are vaguely related but conceptually unorganized. No new definitions emerge. No general theorem compresses them. No representation makes their relationship intelligible. They simply accumulate in a database.

Now imagine another AI notices that 800,000 of those results are manifestations of a single structure nobody has previously named.

It defines the structure, and proves three general theorems. The million proofs become mostly unnecessary.

The second AI has produced less formal information. Yet almost everyone would say it has done more mathematics.

This points toward a useful distinction between theorem production and mathematical understanding.

Understanding compresses truths into generative structure. A good abstraction does not merely summarize a collection of facts. It explains why they travel together. It turns many proofs into instances of one architecture.

That architecture need not even be human-readable.

An AI might discover a mathematical representation that humans find grotesque but that reduces its own proof-search requirements by six orders of magnitude. That would still seem like genuine mathematical structure. It has made its mathematical world more playable.

So the scarce mathematical capability in a world of abundant proof may not be theorem -roving; it may be theorem-space architecture.

The future Grothendieck function—whether performed by humans, machines or some coupled system—will be to decide which distinctions are accidental, which structures deserve names, which results should be unified, and which enormous suburbs of deductive sprawl should be demolished and replaced by one good abstraction.

When proof becomes cheap, urban planning becomes valuable.

The Ascent of Playability

There is a tempting way to tell the story of artificial intelligence.

Human beings possess something called intelligence. For most of history this mysterious faculty separated us from machines. Then machines began acquiring it. First they acquired enough to play simple games. Then enough to play chess. Then Go. Then enough to recognize images, translate languages, write programs, fold proteins and prove mathematical theorems.

As intelligence increases, more domains fall.

But consider another way to tell the story.

Chess did not fall merely because machines became intelligent. Chess is an almost perfectly playable universe. Go is larger and stranger, but it is still extraordinarily playable.

Programming has spent seventy years constructing machine-readable states, legal operations, abstraction hierarchies and automated feedback.

Modern mathematics has spent more than a century building formal structures upon formal structures, and proof assistants have turned increasingly large parts of that architecture into an executable environment.

Protein biology contains enough regularity that sequence and evolutionary information can be transformed into extraordinarily powerful predictions about structure.

Agriculture became playable thousands of years before computers by transforming the environment itself.

Markets became playable by inventing money, prices, accounting and standardized exchange.

Again and again, parts of the world that initially look like phenomenological wilderness turned out to admit a powerful game board.

We discover states that preserve what matters. We discover moves whose consequences can be learned. We discover feedback that allows skill to accumulate. We domesticate the territory. We become experts at the resulting game. We build machinery that plays it better than we can. And then we move outward and construct another game around the first.

Artificial intelligence accelerates this ancient process because it drastically lowers the price of exploiting partially legible worlds. The representation no longer has to be perfect. The rules no longer have to be entirely explicit. The reward no longer has to be available in closed form.

Enough regularity will do.

This may be why the current moment feels simultaneously astonishing and oddly familiar.

The machines are doing remarkably alien things, but the terrain is doing oddly familiar things.

We keep asking what it means that machines can now play chess, write programs, fold proteins, prove theorems, steer robots and discover molecules. The question presumes that the remarkable new object is the machine—that some mysterious substance called intelligence has finally become “general” enough to flow from one human province into another.

But perhaps the stranger discovery concerns the provinces: Wildernesses can be reliably turned into game boards. We domesticate the territory, become skilled at its game, build machinery that plays it better than we can, and move outward to construct another game around the first, domesticating a larger scope.

This happened to fields and livestock long before it happened to chess. It happened to trade before it happened to programming. It happened to mechanics before it happened to mathematical proof.

Artificial intelligence did not invent this strange property of reality. It is merely making it difficult not to notice.

The deepest surprise of the AI era may turn out not to be that intelligence was easier to manufacture than we thought. It may be that the universe is far more playable than we imagined.

Coda: The Playability of Writing

There is one domain conspicuously implicated by the argument of this essay: writing itself.

Writing sits somewhere awkwardly in the middle of the playability spectrum. It is obviously more playable than friendship or political legitimacy. There are stable artifacts, accumulated techniques, recognizable genres, repeatable operations and abundant feedback. Sentences can be revised. Arguments can be tested for consistency. Stories can be checked for continuity. Editors can compare two versions and usually say something useful about why one works better.

But writing lacks the feature that makes Lean such an extraordinarily good game board: a verifier. There is no kernel that accepts Middlemarch and rejects a bad novel. The relevant state is incompletely represented, the available moves are effectively unlimited, and the reward function wanders around outside the text in readers, institutions, historical circumstances and cultures that change partly in response to what gets written. Recent attempts to extend verifiable-reward techniques to writing therefore have to manufacture approximate evaluators out of principles and pairwise judgments rather than simply checking an answer. Writing is playable, but imperfectly and unevenly so.

The unevenness is becoming easier to see because AI is revealing which kinds of writing were already more game-like than we realized. A corporate memo, SEO article, product description, technical explanation or conventional news report has relatively strong constraints: purpose, audience, format, facts, length, house style, perhaps measurable outcomes. Formulaic genre fiction has a looser but still recognizable game board of beats, tropes, pacing, character functions and reader expectations. Even fiction once assumed to depend heavily on irreducible human voice is proving surprisingly susceptible to systematic generation and variation. Writing is not one game but a family of wilderness activities at very different stages of domestication.

At the other end lies writing whose purpose is partly to alter the terms by which it will be judged. As Walter Benjamin observed, “all great works of literature establish a genre or dissolve one.”

A genuinely new literary form, a strange essay, a foundational work of philosophy, or a piece of criticism that gives its readers a concept they did not previously possess cannot simply optimize against an existing reward function. Its success may consist in creating a new one. This is writing at its most wilderness-like, and perhaps why arguments about AI writing become confused when “writing” is treated as a single capability. Producing competent prose, satisfying a genre contract, developing an argument and inventing a form are different games with different degrees of playability.

This essay offers a small example, though not quite in the obvious way. I had the idea of a “curiously playable universe” before beginning the conversation that eventually produced it. I deliberately withheld the hypothesis at first. Instead I began with Lean and the history of mathematical formalization, then worked backward into Hilbert, Brouwer and Grothendieck and sideways into programming and physics. My prompts were not innocent: the hypothesis was guiding which trails I chose to follow. But it was not yet part of the shared context of the conversation, and so it could not organize the AI’s answers in advance.

This created a useful asymmetry. I knew roughly what I was looking for; the AI did not. I could ask whether axiomatization had made mathematics newly amenable to machine proof, whether programming and physics had undergone analogous migrations toward powerful representations, whether those representations were lossy in the Scottian sense, and whether Brouwer’s insistence on a preformal mathematical wilderness complicated the picture. Each question exposed another piece of the terrain without instructing the model to make everything fit the eventual thesis. The conversation therefore functioned partly as a probe. I was testing whether the idea of playability would emerge naturally from domains examined without naming it as the organizing concept.

Only after that groundwork did I put the hypothesis explicitly on the table. At that point the character of the work changed. What had previously been a sequence of locally motivated explorations could be gathered into a common representation: wilderness, legibility, domestication, closure, verification, automation and meta-games. Mathematics, programming, physics, Go, protein folding, agriculture and markets could now be compared as instances of the same proposed process. The game board had existed privately and provisionally before the conversation began; what the conversation did was test it against the terrain, modify it, and eventually make it explicit enough to become a shared game board.

Once that happened, a language model could do a great deal of downstream work extremely quickly. The argument could be outlined, cases arranged, objections incorporated, transitions constructed and prose generated. Even the decision to begin the finished essay with mathematics and delay the master hypothesis until the second act reproduced, in miniature, the exploratory structure of the conversation that preceded it.

This suggests a somewhat different account of the playability of AI-assisted writing. The crucial human contribution need not be either writing the sentences or supplying a complete specification from which the sentences follow. It can consist in maintaining a partially private model of the game that is not yet sufficiently articulated to automate: choosing probes, noticing which responses are interesting, withholding a premature frame that might collapse exploration into confirmation, and deciding when enough structure has emerged to expose the game board explicitly.

The meta-game emerging above writing may therefore involve constructing—and strategically revealing—the game boards on which execution takes place. If competent prose becomes cheap, more resources can be directed toward finding the question, assembling unlikely source domains, inventing the useful distinction, designing sequences of inquiry, recognizing when an analogy is productive, deciding what belongs together, and establishing the criteria by which a finished object ought to succeed. The writer becomes somewhat less like a person manufacturing sentences and somewhat more like an architect and player of generative constraints.

That does not mean prose becomes irrelevant. A game board badly realized is still a bad essay, just as a brilliant architectural plan does not eliminate the need for a building. Nor does it mean the higher-level activity is permanently reserved for humans. AI systems may themselves become increasingly capable of inventing representations, designing probes, discovering genres and constructing new games. The point is only that automaticity at one level does not end the activity. It displaces its frontier.

Writing may therefore be undergoing the same transition described throughout this essay, only messier and in public. Some of its old games are becoming startlingly playable. Some are approaching automaticity. New games are forming above them. And beyond those remains the poorly mapped territory from which the next game board might emerge.


Sunday assorted links

1. Vishy now thinks Pragg is number one in the chess world.

2. Do children grow continuously, or grow in fits and starts?

3. It remains my view that Ferrante is the husband and wife team.

4. Essay on Olaf Stapledon.

5. “US annual interest expense is up to a record 18.5% of federal government revenue. This is officially above the previous record of 18.4% set in 1991. This percentage has more than QUADRUPLED over the last 4 years as interest expenditures on public debt skyrocketed.”  Link.

6. Statistical meddling at the Census Bureau.

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Quoting Zach Kehs

If you continue to add floors and rooms to a building forever, it will collapse. Software faces no such constraint. The code can always get worse. There can always be a new layer of indirection or a reduction in performance.

Zach Kehs, There's No Limit to How Bad Code Can Get

Tags: technical-debt

Introducing GPT-6 Astra for developers

Introducing GPT-6 Astra for developers

Blink and you'll miss it, but there's a familiar creature at 1m59s:

Across the board, Astra has more attention to detail, better understanding of the user's prompt, and can build more sophisticated outputs. In particular, it excels at building 3D models. I've seen it make incredible renderings of gardens, shipyards, animals, cityscapes, even Dyson spheres.

astra-video-pelican.webp

Astra really does believe in putting a red neckerchief on a pelican riding a bicycle.

Via Hacker News comment

Tags: ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, gpt-6-astra

Using Blender with coding agents on macOS

TIL: Using Blender with coding agents on macOS

I've been having fun with Blender in ChatGPT Codex on my Mac recently. Getting it to work with coding agents is really easy: install the full Mac application from blender.org and run a prompt like this:

Use the already install /Applications/Blender to render a scene of a pelican riding a bicycle

In this case I followed that up with these two prompts:

OK add a background and a lot of flair

Then:

OK make it a whole lot better

And got this image, generated using Blender's Python API:

A 3D illustration of a white pelican cycling along a seaside boardwalk at sunset. It wears a cream boater hat and a coral scarf, with wings on the handlebars and long orange legs reaching the pedals of a turquoise bicycle. A wicker front basket holds pink and white flowers, and three balloons float behind. Pastel bunting stretches overhead between palm trees. Striped beach huts stand beside a teal sea with a small sailboat, beneath a large peach-colored sun. The scene has a softly lit, toy-like style.

This was covered by my existing Codex subscription, but according to AgentsView it would have cost $4.24 at API prices for gpt-6-astra.

Tags: ai, generative-ai, llms, blender, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, coding-agents, gpt-6-astra

Weaponized Interdependence

Embargo Act | Facts, Effects, & Significance | Britannica

On Friday Donald Trump threatened to cut off all trade with nations with which the United States runs a trade deficit. His demand, oddly, was directed at the Federal Reserve: He would impose trade embargoes unless the Fed cuts interest rates. I won’t even try to untangle his logic, if there is any, because today’s primer isn’t about Trump. It is, instead, about how to think about a world in which governments — even the government of the United States, which created the rules-based trading system that prevailed until recently — increasingly use threats to cut off international trade as a tool of coercion.

“Geoeconomics” — the study of the ways governments can use national economic strength in pursuit of geopolitical objectives — is a hot topic right now, both among scholars and at international institutions. The International Monetary Fund made geoeconomics the theme of the June issue of its F&D magazine. Geoeconomics is the theme of the European Central Bank’s annual research conference, taking place next week, at which I’m giving a talk on “economic size and economic power.” Back in August I posted a primer on relevant measures of economic size. Today, continuing my homework for the talk, I’m writing about economic power.

Specifically, I want to talk about “weaponized interdependence,” a term coined in 2019 by the political scientists Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman. Farrell and Newman focused mainly on national governments’ efforts to exploit their control of international networks, such as America’s use of the dollar’s central role in the international monetary system to impose sanctions on nations it considers hostile. At this point, however, weaponized interdependence is everywhere: Iran attempting to force the United States to call off its war by closing the Strait of Hormuz, China threatening the West with a cutoff of rare earths, the Trump administration using the threat of tariffs to pressure Canada to remove cultural protections for French — or become the 51st state?

But how should we think about weaponized interdependence? There is a rapidly burgeoning theoretical and empirical research literature on geoeconomics, surveyed for example by Mohr and Trebesch (2025.) I am not a contributor to this literature, just a consumer! But this rapidly growing field isn’t yet part of the standard way we teach international economics, let alone the way people influential in policy discuss the world. So what I thought I could do today is lay out in a very simple, maybe simplistic way what I believe to be some of the main insights from thinking about international trade as a potential tool of coercion — and what it says about the current global situation.

Beyond the paywall I will address the following:

1. What is weaponized interdependence, and how does it differ from “trade war”?

2. The sources of trade-related power

3. The special case of depression economics

4. Who has economic power in today’s world?

5. Trade in a weaponized world

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Redefining Healthcare in the Age of A.I., Paris, Sept 8-10

 I'm in Paris, for the conference Redefining Healthcare in the Age of AI 

"The Paris Institute for Transplantation and Organ Regeneration (PITOR) is delighted to announce the first Nature Conference in Europe dedicated to artificial intelligence in medicine, taking place in Paris from 8–10 September 2026.

Held under the High Patronage of the President of the French Republic, the conference will bring together 28 leading international experts, including two Nobel Prize laureates, as well as the Editors-in-Chief of Nature, Nature Medicine, Nature Reviews Engineering, Nature Reviews Nephrology, and Nature Health. The meeting will be held in the historic amphitheater of the Sorbonne.

Topics will include:

    Medical imaging and diagnostics
    Ethics and regulation
    Medical robotics and wearable technologies
    Agentic AI and clinical decision support
    Drug discovery and repurposing
 

Gloria Steinem’s Final Essay

Gloria Steinem, in a posthumous essay for The New Yorker:

For me, saying that I am a feminist has always meant that I believe in the social, economic, and political equality of all males and females of all races and groups. I know this sounds too simple to need a word, but equality is still the exception, not the rule.

Maybe we should call it egalitarianism, or even humanism. The problem with humanism is that it is often interpreted as being anti-religion, so I don’t think it’s inclusive enough. Regardless of what we call it, it just means treating each of us as uniquely human. The experiences of race and gender and class are very real and important, but they are also constructed and changeable. Our humanity is consistent and sacred.

Still, for some, it remains a mystery why women need a movement to distinguish our efforts toward equality. For me, it seems quite obvious.

 ★ 

‘Bob and Van’

Marco Arment:

And I can’t help but feel that maybe we were better off before we knew everyone’s hot takes on everything.

The town coffee shop was just a coffee shop. We weren’t publicly shamed for going there because one of the owners was an ass. It was just a place to hang out with our friends.

 ★ 

*Why Not Bolivia?*

The author is Calvin Korponai, and the subtitle is From Macchu Picchu into Bolivia in search of the Garden of Eden.  Bolivia is a fantastic country to visit, more original than most people are expecting, and this is the book to tell you why.  Excerpt:

The landscape itself is like noting else in the Americas.  The altiplano is flat in the way that only vast geological formations can be flat, not the flatness of a plain that was once a sea, but the flatness of a plateau that was raised bodily by tectonic forces millions of years ago and then scoured by ten thousand years of wind and ice into the extraordinary emptiness it presents today.  The horizon in every direction is uninterrupted.  The sky is immense, a dome of blue so saturated at this altitude that photographs rarely convey it accurately, because the camera’s sensor cannot process a blue that contains no haze, no moisture, no atmospheric diffffusion between the sun and the surface.

And:

Arriving at El Alto International Airport (which sits on the altiplano above the city at forty-one hundred meters, making it the highest international airport in the world), you step off the plane into air so thin that the simple act of carrying your luggage to the terminal produces a shortness of breath that is mildly alarming if you have never experienced it and completely normal if you have.  The airport itself is unremarkable.  What happens next is not.  You get into a taxi or bus and the driver takes you to the edge of the antiplano, and then the city appears, not gradually but all at once, a cascade of buildings and lights and terracotta roofs pouring down the walls of a canyon so steep and so deep that the bottom is invisible from the rim.  La Paz does not reveal itself slowly.  It drops away beneath you like a held breath released.

Recommended, and yes Cochabamba is an amazing food city.

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Links 9/5/26

Links for you. Science:

AI-assisted mushroom hunting is a recipe for a bad trip
Ancient sheep virus found hiding in medieval parchment
Kennedy asked to remove Pennsylvania measles death from CDC tally, sources say
A heartbreaking quest to donate my dad’s brain to science
Threats to infectious diseases research leave our country at significant risk
Trump Administration Is Secretly Working to Divert Billions From NIH Budget to Fund Iran War
Florida’s Department of Health removes 4 vaccines from required list for public schools

Other:

Democrats Have the Trans Sports Question Backwards (absolute must-read, and send this to your elected representatives)
I Am Going To Lose My F****** Mind. Can someone make the madness end? Or are we simply doomed to demented discourse and intolerable double standards and spineless opposition forever?
Hegseth and Co. Are Trying to Steal Other Agencies’ Funds, Dems Say. House Democrats say the Pentagon is attempting to siphon crucial NIH funds.
Why office workers are turning against AI
Gloria Steinem personified America’s feminist movement
Juan Linz’s work is a cautionary tale Supreme Court Republicans see as an instruction manual
Trump’s DOJ Blocked Serious ICE Shooting Charge Over Federal Prosecutor’s “Strongest Possible” Objections
London’s approach to knife crime is working
Susan Collins Confronted About Elon Musk Donation: ‘I Wasn’t Aware of That’ (ask her if she’ll renounce Musk, who among other things, recently posted that the 19th amendment, granting women the right to vote, was a bad idea)
California Legislature Passes Nation’s Largest Proposed Investment in Community News
Maria Bartiromo was let go from Fox News after leaking company info to Trump
The Backstory on the Big AI Backlash in Independence, Missouri
Inspired by a conversation with @joshtpm, a thread on Senator Ossoff and Governor Shapiro and their presidential ambitions, from a Jewish lens. (don’t entirely agree, but interesting)
A surefire way to beat Republicans in their war on trans athletes
California Lawmakers Greenlight Solar Panels You Can Plug Into the Wall
The Problem With “Go Inside”
Inside Trump’s Nightmare for Haitians in Springfield: ‘We’re Following Our Orders’
Fort Dupont Park Concert Series Won’t Happen in 2026
How your regime-aligned media sausage gets made
VC isn’t VC anymore — understanding the rise of Cancer Capital
JD Vance’s chivalry to his wife Usha fools no one
Cancer Capital: VC didn’t use to work like this
The Culture of Elite Conformism Enabled the Capitulations of the Second Trump Term
The Court’s Ballroom Decision Is a Sign of Deeper Problems
Army Heroes’ Humiliating Nickname for Pete Hegseth Is Leaked
Trump’s arch may break ground without final approval. Veterans are trying to stop it
Republicans fear Trump will keep super PAC money and not spend on the midterms
Vigilantism comes for Flock. More Americans than ever are destroying Flock license plate cameras amid rising backlash against the company. Is the tide turning on intrusive U.S. mass surveillance, and where does the privacy fight go next?
Former Staff Members Threaten to Expose Fetterman’s Internal Messages (of course, they’re only posting on X, and not Bluesky, which says something about the instincts of Democratic staffers, unfortunately)
Gloria Steinem’s Final Essay

Saturday 5 September 1663

Up betimes and to my viall awhile, and so to the office, and there sat, and busy all the morning. So at noon to the Exchange, and so home to dinner, where I met Creed, who dined with me, and after dinner mightily importuned by Captain Hicks, who came to tell my wife the names and story of all the shells, which was a pretty present he made her the other day.

He being gone, Creed, my wife, and I to Cornhill, and after many tryalls bought my wife a chintz, that is, a painted Indian calico, for to line her new study, which is very pretty.

So home with her, and then I away (Creed being gone) to Captain Minors upon Tower Hill, and there, abating only some impertinence of his, I did inform myself well in things relating to the East Indys; both of the country and the disappointment the King met with the last voyage, by the knavery of the Portugall Viceroy, and the inconsiderablenesse of the place of Bombaim, if we had had it. But, above all things, it seems strange to me that matters should not be understood before they went out; and also that such a thing as this, which was expected to be one of the best parts of the Queen’s portion, should not be better understood; it being, if we had it, but a poor place, and not really so as was described to our King in the draught of it, but a poor little island; whereas they made the King and Lord Chancellor, and other learned men about the King, believe that that, and other islands which are near it, were all one piece; and so the draught was drawn and presented to the King, and believed by the King and expected to prove so when our men came thither; but it is quite otherwise.

Thence to my office, and after several letters writ, home to supper and to bed, and took a pill. I hear this day that Sir W. Batten was fain to put ashore at Queenborough with my Lady, who has been so sick she swears never to go to sea again. But it happens well that Holmes is come home into the Downes, where he will meet my Lady, and it may be do her more good than she looked for. He brings news of the peace between Tangier and the Moors, but the particulars I know not. He is come but yesterday.

Read the annotations

Reading List - 09/05/2026

Spring Waters by Vilhelms Purvitis, via WikiArt.

Welcome to the reading list, a weekly roundup of news and links related to buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology. This week we look at SpaceX’s turbine blade factory, Fervo’s deal with Google, Delhi’s cheap metro, why recycling is overrated, and more. Roughly 2/3rds of the reading list is paywalled, so for full access become a paid subscriber.

Housing and Cities

Claims that increased immigration raids on residential construction jobsites are straining US homebuilders. “In some markets, homebuilders say the impact has been significant; in others, it has been an existential threat to their ability to continue operating as businesses, complete homes, and repay construction loans.” [HousingWire]

YIMBY in Practice on the different strategies states can use to pre-empt local control over housing construction in the hopes of getting more housing built, and how likely they are to succeed. “The hierarchy is clear. Whatever policy gives the state the most power over housing tends to be the best. Whatever policy gives the local governments the most power tends to be the worst. The trouble is that what’s good policy is not always good politics. State preemption bills are often the most difficult for pro-housing legislators to pass. And in the heat of negotiations, they often end up somewhere in the middle of the spectrum. Preserving local discretion may not be a good idea, but it’s often what is needed to get a bill to pass.” [YIMBY Action]

The Free Press on four decades of attempts to build a gravel road between a remote Alaskan town and an runway 18 miles away, and the environmental activists who keep opposing it. [The FP]

Surprised I hadn’t heard of these before: “Costco doors” are doors that homebuilders put between the garage and the pantry to make unloading groceries easier. [X]

Manufacturing

Not satisfied with the 100% tariffs, an alliance of several major automakers, including GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai, want congress to ban import of Chinese cars completely. [Reuters] And China is exporting so many cars that it’s straining global supplies of car carrier ships. [Freightwaves]

SpaceX is apparently building a turbine blade factory to help get gas turbine power plants for AI data centers online more quickly. Turbine blades are famously complex, but rockets have a lot of turbomachinery — turbo pumps are used to pump fuel into the motor — so this isn’t a completely wild jump. “According to the outlet’s account of the Morgan Stanley report, the foundry would supply single-crystal nickel superalloy parts to both the turbopumps powering SpaceX’s Raptor engines and to natural gas power turbines.” [QZ]

Energy

The US continues to install a lot of battery storage: between April and June of this year, US grid energy storage capacity increased by about 10%. [Canary Media]

Also on the subject of batteries, consumers are starting to use home battery storage for energy arbitrage: buying power off the grid when it’s cheap, and selling it back when it’s expensive. [Bloomberg]

Enhanced geothermal startup Fervo signs a deal to supply 396 megawatts of power to Google for a potential Utah datacenter. [Fervo] (I haven’t been tracking Fervo since the IPO, and was surprised to see its stock down about 50% since it went public.) [Yahoo]

While US shale oil output was growing steadily for many years, for most major US shale basins production has now flattened out. [X]

Nuclear reactor startup Oklo had a hybrid power project (combining nuclear, fuel cells, ans gas generation) dropped from a PJM interconnection planning process; PJM claims that that the “company never showed the project could ride through a sudden drop in grid voltage.” Oklo has filed a complaint with FERC to get the project reinstated. [Utility Dive]

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Labor Day

September 4, 2026

On September 5, 1882, workers in New York City celebrated the first Labor Day holiday with a parade. The parade almost didn’t happen: there was no band, and no one wanted to start marching without music. Once the Jewelers Union of Newark Two showed up with musicians, the rest of the marchers, eventually numbering between 10,000 and 20,000 men and women, fell in behind them to parade through lower Manhattan. At noon, when they reached the end of the route, the march broke up and the participants listened to speeches, drank beer, and had picnics. Other workers joined them.

Their goal was to emphasize the importance of workers in the industrializing economy and to warn politicians that they could not be ignored. Less than 20 years before, northern men had fought a war to defend a society based on free labor and had, they thought, put in place a government that would support the ability of all hardworking men to rise to prosperity.

By 1882, though, factories and the fortunes they created had swung the government toward men of capital, and workingmen worried they would lose their rights if they didn’t work together. A decade before, the Republican Party, which had formed to protect free labor, had thrown its weight behind Wall Street. In 1884, even the staunchly Republican Chicago Tribune complained about the links between business and government: “Behind every one of half of the portly and well-dressed members of the Senate can be seen the outlines of some corporation interested in getting or preventing legislation,” it wrote. The Senate, Harper’s Weekly noted, was “a club of rich men.”

The workers marching in New York City carried banners saying: “Labor Built This Republic and Labor Shall Rule it,” “Labor Creates All Wealth,” “No Land Monopoly,” “No Money Monopoly,” “Labor Pays All Taxes,” “The Laborer Must Receive and Enjoy the Full Fruit of His Labor,” ‘Eight Hours for a Legal Day’s Work,” and “The True Remedy is Organization and the Ballot.”

The New York Times denied that workers were any special class in the United States, saying that “[e]very one who works with his brain, who applies accumulated capital to industry, who directs or facilitates the operations of industry and the exchange of its products, is just as truly a laboring man as he who toils with his hands…and each contributes to the creation of wealth and the payment of taxes and is entitled to a share in the fruits of labor in proportion to the value of his service in the production of net results.”

In other words, the growing inequality in the country was a function of the greater value of bosses than their workers, and the government could not possibly adjust that equation. The New York Daily Tribune scolded the workers for holding a political—even a “demagogical”—event. “It is one thing to organize a large force of…workingmen…when they are led to believe that the demonstration is purely non-partisan; but quite another thing to lead them into a political organization….”

Two years later, workers helped to elect Democrat Grover Cleveland to the White House. A number of Republicans crossed over to support the reformer, afraid that, as he said, “The gulf between employers and the employed is constantly widening, and classes are rapidly forming, one comprising the very rich and powerful, while in another are found the toiling poor…. Corporations, which should be the carefully restrained creatures of the law and the servants of the people, are fast becoming the people’s masters.”

In 1888, Cleveland won the popular vote by about 100,000 votes, but his Republican opponent, Benjamin Harrison, won in the Electoral College. Harrison promised that his would be “A BUSINESS MAN’S ADMINISTRATION” and said that “before the close of the present Administration business men will be thoroughly well content with it….”

Businessmen mostly were, but the rest of the country wasn’t. In November 1892 a Democratic landslide put Cleveland back in office, along with the first Democratic Congress since before the Civil War. As soon as the results of the election became apparent, the Republicans declared that the economy would collapse. Harrison’s administration had been “beyond question the best business administration the country has ever had,” one businessmen’s club insisted, so losing it could only be a calamity. “The Republicans will be passive spectators,” the Chicago Tribune noted. “It will not be their funeral.” People would be thrown out of work, but “[p]erhaps the working classes of the country need such a lesson….”

As investors rushed to take their money out of the U.S. stock market, the economy collapsed a few days before Cleveland took office in early March 1893. Trying to stabilize the economy by enacting the proposals capitalists wanted, Cleveland and the Democratic Congress had to abandon many of the pro-worker policies they had promised, and the Supreme Court struck down the rest (including the income tax).

They could, however, support Labor Day and its indication of workers’ political power. On June 28, 1894, Cleveland signed Congress’s bill making Labor Day a legal holiday. Each year, the first Monday in September would honor the country’s workers.

In Chicago the chair of the House Labor Committee, Lawrence McGann (D-IL), told the crowd gathered for the first official observance: “Let us each Labor day, hold a congress and formulate propositions for the amelioration of the people. Send them to your Representatives with your earnest, intelligent indorsement [sic], and the laws will be changed.”

Notes:

https://www.dol.gov/general/laborday/history-daze

New York Times, September 6, 1882, p. 8.

New York Times, September 6, 1882, p. 4.

New York Daily Tribune, September 7, 1882, p. 4.

Chicago Tribune quoted in Harper’s Weekly, February 9, 1884, p, 86.

Statement from the Commercial Travelers’ Republican Club, quoted in Chicago Tribune, November 1, 1892, p. 2.

Chicago Tribune, November 21, 1892, p. 4.

Chicago Tribune, November 11, 1892, p. 4.

Frank Leslie’s Illustrated Newspaper, December 14, 1889, p. 330; December

21, 1889, p. 354; January 4, 1889, p. 387.

https://blogs.loc.gov/law/files/2011/09/S-730.pdf

https://history.house.gov/Historical-Highlights/1851-1900/The-first-Labor-Day/

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SpaceX launches 80th Starlink mission of 2026

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base on the Starlink 15-24 mission on Sept. 6, 2026. Image: SpaceX

Update Sept. 5, 11:46 a.m. EDT (1546 UTC): SpaceX deployed its 27 Starlink satellites.

SpaceX completed a Labor Day weekend launch of its Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The Sunday morning flight was the 80th Starlink mission this year.

Liftoff of the Starlink 15-24 mission from Space Launch Complex 4 East happened at  7:26 a.m. PDT (10:26 a.m. EDT / 1426 UTC). The rocket flew on a southeasterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1088. It flew for a 19th time after previously launching three national security missions, Transporter-12, NASA’s SPHEREx, and 13 batches of Starlink satellites.

Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1088 landed on the droneship, Of Course I Still Love You, positioned in the Pacific Ocean. This was the 223rd landing on this vessel and the 659th Falcon booster landing to date.

Shifting priorities

The Starlink 15-24 mission was the third Starlink mission since SpaceX announced that it would no longer launch its broadband internet satellites from on Falcon 9 rocket’s from Florida.

“From here on, Starlink missions out of Florida will fly on Starship,” said Kiko Dontchev, Vice President for Launch at SpaceX.

Currently, SpaceX is working on three Starship launch towers in the Sunshine State: one at Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center and two at Space Launch Complex 37 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

The company has said it aims to launch its first Starship mission from Florida before the end of the year. SpaceX is working towards its first orbital launch of the more than 400-foot-tall rocket, which will fly from Starbase, Texas.

SpaceX completed single-engine and six-engine static fire tests for Ship 41 and a 33-engine static fire test for Booster 21, both of which will fly on the forthcoming Starship Flight 14. A launch date hasn’t been announced, but hazard warnings for aviators and mariners suggest that the mission may fly no earlier than Sept. 15.

Short Videos, Big Self-Control Problems

I study how short-form design amplifies self-control problems in digital media. Short units repeatedly renew temptation that lasts longer than each unit, turning local temptation into sustained overconsumption. Using microdata from a U.S. short-drama platform, I exploit a nonlinear top-up menu to infer viewing plans and show that paying users watch 82.1% more than intended. Structural estimates imply an average temptation horizon of 11.2 minutes, short relative to the full drama but long relative to one-minute episodes. Counterfactuals show that larger decision units, default limits, and breaks improve long-run welfare. A short-video calibration highlights the broader welfare relevance.

That is from Renjie Bao of Princeton University.  I believe a Princeton job market candidate?  Via Quan Le.

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Saturday assorted links

1. Joaquin Rodrigo’s Toccata.  Rodrigo by the way was blind,

2. China word of the day.

3. “People Keep Sneaking Into New York City Sewers. No One Knows Why.” (NYT)

4. Yiyang Zhuge has postponed her recording session with CWT, in case you will be wondering why the episode does not show up soon.

5. Who was the most consequential emperor in Chinese history?

6. Are science fiction films becoming more optimistic?

7. Ruxandra on clinical trials as the main obstacle (NYT).

8. The trend in U.S. cyberinsurance prices since 2020.

9. Fermat’s Last Theorem, the number of links cannot keep up with the world.

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Using Blender with coding agents on macOS

Modern frontier models have got really good at using Blender. I've been having a lot of fun trying this out recently - models can produce .blend files you can edit in Blender itself, and can also render images and even movies (by rendering a sequence of images and combining them with ffmpeg).

Setting this up, at least on macOS, is really easy. Install the Blender desktop app from blender.org and then tell the coding agent:

Use the already install /Applications/Blender to render a scene of a pelican riding a bicycle

That worked for me with GPT-6 Astra. You can also be a bit more explicit, to save the model some time figuring out how to use it:

Use Blender like this: /Applications/Blender.app/Contents/MacOS/Blender --background --python scene.py

A pelican riding a bicycle with GPT-6 Astra

I used GPT-6 Astra (Medium) in the ChatGPT macOS application, Codex mode:

Use the already install /Applications/Blender to render a scene of a pelican riding a bicycle

2m39s later:

A whimsical 3D illustration of a white pelican riding a turquoise bicycle with cream mudguards and silver spokes. Its wings stretch forward to grip the handlebars, and its long yellow legs bend down to the pedals. A coral scarf streams behind its neck. The pelican has a large glossy eye and a long pale yellow bill with a rounded throat pouch. Soft lighting and a muted sage-green background give the scene a pastel, toy-like appearance.

pelican-bicycle.blend, pelican_scene.py

OK add a background and a lot of flair

3m51s later:

A whimsical pastel 3D illustration of a white pelican riding a turquoise bicycle along a pink boardwalk. It wears a cream boater hat with a pink band and a coral scarf fluttering behind it, with wings reaching for the handlebars and long yellow legs on the pedals. Three balloons trail behind, and a colorful pinwheel is mounted near the front wheel. Striped beach huts, pink-and-white parasols, and angular palm trees line the beach beneath a teal sky. Pastel triangular bunting hangs overhead, while confetti and curling streamers fill the festive scene.

pelican-bicycle-festival.blend, pelican_flair.py

OK make it a whole lot better

5m59s later:

A whimsical 3D illustration of a white pelican cycling along a seaside boardwalk at sunset. It wears a cream boater hat and a coral scarf, with wings on the handlebars and long orange legs reaching the pedals of a turquoise bicycle. A wicker front basket holds pink and white flowers, and three balloons float behind. Pastel bunting stretches overhead between palm trees. Striped beach huts stand beside a teal sea with a small sailboat, beneath a large peach-colored sun. The scene has a softly lit, toy-like style.

pelican-coastal-parade.blend, pelican_final.py

The project lives in this repo, and here's the exported transcript from Codex.

Creating a skill

Codex makes it pretty easy to create skills (using its built-in skill creating skill), so I finished up by prompting:

Create a quick skill that describes how to use the currently installed /Application/Blender based on what you learned

It produced and installed this Markdown skill, which I have since used for further Blender experiments with prompts like this:

Use your Blender Local skill to build this scene (attached image)

HHS Announces Winners of the 2026 Prize Challenge to Advance Living Kidney Donation

 Here's the press release:

HHS Announces Winners of the 2026 KidneyX EMPOWER: Living Link Prize Challenge to Advance Living Kidney Donation and Patient-Centered Innovation

WASHINGTON, D.C. — August 27, 2026 — The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) today announced the nine winners of the 2026 KidneyX EMPOWER: Living Link Prize Challenge, a $4 million national competition to accelerate innovation supporting living kidney donors and patients who depend on them. The challenge was run through the Kidney Innovation Accelerator (KidneyX), a public-private partnership between HHS and the American Society of Nephrology (ASN).

...

Addressing Critical Gaps in Living Donation

More than a dozen Americans die each day while waiting for a kidney, and nearly 100,000 Americans are currently waitlisted for a kidney transplant. Living kidney donation is one of the most effective treatment options for kidney failure, yet the number of living kidney donors has remained virtually flat for approximately two decades at fewer than 7,000 per year. Significant financial, logistical, educational, and social barriers often limit the number of people able to donate or receive a transplant.

2026 EMPOWER Prize Challenge Winners

...

A total of nine winning teams were recognized for their bold, practical solutions that improve public awareness and mentorship; donor interventions; donor readiness and eligibility; donor-centered outcomes; and donation center practices.

...

To encourage further progress, eight awardees will each receive $375,000, while one distinguished grand prize winner will receive a $1 million award recognizing their exceptional contributions toward enhancing support for donors, patients, and the broader healthcare community.

  • Grand Prize Winner: Richard Horsley, LivingLink: A full-stack, open-source platform built on HL7 FHIR R4 that integrates natively into commonly used electronic health records (EHR) systems.
  • Columbia University Irving Medical Center/New York-Presbyterian, DonorForward: Turning unused donor readiness into non-directed kidney transplants. A structured identification and decision aid system to expand the living donor pool.
  • Dartmouth Transplant, A Rural Living Donor Tele-Navigation Hub: A telehealth-enabled care model shifting testing and care coordination closer to home to reduce travel barriers for rural donors.
  • Kidney Connective, Best-fit routing for donors and their pairs: A donor and pair-facing best-fit routing experience that helps a donor and their recipient find the transplant center where they’re both eligible.
  • MedStar Georgetown Transplant Institute, Expanding Living Kidney Donation in Adults 65 and Older: Replaces fixed criteria with an individualized, age-adjusted, and risk-stratified evaluation framework.
  • National Kidney Donation Organization, The NKDO Living Link Network: A national model connecting prospective donors and patients with trained living donor mentors and moderated peer discussions.
  • NYU Langone Health Transplant Institute, CADENCE: A virtual program employing trained lay navigators to deliver the "Live Donor Champion" program, equipping families to act as advocates.
  • Regenstrief Institute, LIVINGkidney: A standalone mobile app and website providing structured guidance and AI knowledge assistance.
  • Virginia Commonwealth University, The KHCP Living Link Pathway: An EHR-enabled care model that uses rule-based chronic kidney disease identification and predictive risk equations to activate donors early.

Learn more about the winners here.

Advancing Living Kidney Donation

The winning solutions demonstrate how lived experience, technical innovation, clinical approaches, and community-based support can help address barriers across the living donation journey. By advancing innovations in these areas, the 2026 EMPOWER Prize Challenge emphasizes living donation as a critical pathway to improving outcomes and saving lives while ensuring that living donors are supported before, during and after donation.

...

The award-winning teams will be honored during the KidneyX EMPOWER Winners Showcase on September 10, 2026. Winners will present their innovative strategies and solutions aimed at expanding living kidney donation.

The Kalshi Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF)

Kalshi Research is doing interesting work on the fundamentals of prediction markets and also on how data from prediction markets can be used to improve other forecasts. Economists at the Fed, for example, recently wrote Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets finding:

Prediction markets offer a new market-based approach to measuring macroeconomic expectations in real-time. We evaluate the accuracy of prediction market-implied forecasts from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market overseen by the CFTC. We compare Kalshi with more traditional survey and market-implied forecasts, examine how expectations respond to macroeconomic and financial news, and how policy signals are interpreted by market participants. Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.

Kalshi gives one example of how this data might be used, the Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF). The CBO forecasts the future debt path but it updates only twice a year and is limited to a legislative baseline even when most observers expect, for example, taxes to increase or spending to be cut. The Kalshi CDF updates continuously and can build in market expectations about future legislative changes.

The Kalshi forecast, as seen below, is slightly more optimistic than the CBO forecast but I don’t read too much into that. The larger issue is how prediction market data can be integrated into a wide variety of forecasts.

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Day Off

No interview this week, because of travel, and working away on a longer-term project.

The Pelican comparison grid for Astra is pretty interesting

I got access to GPT-6 Astra this afternoon, so naturally I used it to generate SVGs of pelicans riding bicycles - at low, medium, high, xhigh and max reasoning levels (Astra doesn't support reasoning=none). Then I rendered those pelicans in a comparison grid with GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna, and beyond being fun the result was surprisingly useful.

Comparison grid showing gpt-6-astra, gpt-5.6-sol, gpt-5.6-terra, gpt-5.6-luna at 6 different reasoning levels with pelicans and token counts and prices for each one. See the grid for full quality images. Here's the transcript that created the GPT-6 Nova pelicans.

There are a few interesting things that stand out from this grid.

  • The Astra pelicans are much better. The very best GPT-5.6-Sol pelican (I liked xhigh better than max) is still pretty clearly a bunch of abstract shapes. Every single one of the Astra pelicans, from low to xhigh, looks better than that. The Astra max one is really good.
  • Astra below max still doesn't reliably get the pelican legs on both sides of the frame.
  • In terms of cost, Astra may be around twice the price of Sol ($10/million input, $50/million output, compared to $5/$30 for Sol), but it uses significantly less tokens at each of the levels, making the prices at the different levels closer than they might otherwise be.
  • Astra low produces a better pelican than ANY of the GPT-5.6 Sol models at any level, for 9.55 cents. Spending 10 cents on any other model gets a much worse result.
  • Look at the input token counts: Astra and Luna both used 16 input tokens, Sol and Terra used 26. That's interesting.

I wonder if Astra and Luna are more related to each other than OpenAI let on?

Tags: ai, openai, generative-ai, llms, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, gpt-6-astra

America is still beating China in the AI race

Art by GPT-6

Most of the debate around AI, at least in the U.S., is not about the international aspect. The local political debate is all about data center construction; the national economic debate is mostly about fear of job loss, with a side discussion about a potential bubble; and the technological discussion, at least in public, is mostly about AI safety and risk. U.S.-China competition gets mentioned in certain circles, but it’s probably safe to say that it’s not Americans’ chief topic of concern.

But it still matters! For one thing, there’s the military aspect to think about. Cyberwarfare so far hasn’t been decisive in military conflicts, but AI’s incredible cybersecurity prowess could change that. If AI ends up strengthening defense more than offense — say, by finding all of the available exploits and patching them before an attacker can get to them — then cyberwarfare will become less important. But if those who possess the best AI models are able to successfully hack anyone using a less capable model to defend, it could lead to a decisive shift in the balance of power.

AI hacking doesn’t have mutually assured destruction, like nuclear warfare does. Imagine if China were to gain a big lead in AI models that gave it the power to easily hack into American banks and brokerage accounts and erase people’s wealth. It would cause absolute chaos in American society, but how could the U.S. retaliate? Launch nukes? Nor could the U.S. hack China in return, since China’s more capable AI would also be used to defend.

If either country opens up a large, sustained lead in AI capabilities, it might upend the balance of power between the two.

Not all AI issues are zero-sum, of course. If the U.S. and China both continue pushing forward with AI research at maximum speed, it may quickly cause safety issues. The recent AI agent swarm attack on Hugging Face shows that AI has reached the level where it can pose a significant hazard to human companies and organizations — and perhaps soon to human society itself. Bioterror risk is certainly the most terrifying, but there are plenty of other ways that highly capable AI could cause chaos.

The U.S. and China have a shared incentive to implement strict safeguards against these catastrophic risks, and perhaps even to regulate the pace of AI development. But given the Chinese Communist Party’s power-seeking nature, it seems much more likely that China would agree to cooperate on AI safety if U.S. capabilities were comfortably ahead. So even if the goal is cooperation, the U.S. should be thinking about how to keep its technological edge.

Fortunately, the U.S. is still beating China in the AI race. Our companies have better models, more compute, and far more revenue. But there are ways that the Trump administration, despite claiming to be the AI industry’s best friend, could squander America’s lead — especially by pushing Chinese AI talent out of the country.

U.S. models are still better than Chinese models

There have been several moments when it seemed as if China’s frontier models were catching up to America’s in capabilities. The most dramatic was the “DeepSeek Moment” in early 2025, which put Chinese AI on the map. More recently, the release of Moonshot’s Kimi K3 this July and Z.ai’s GLM-5.3 a few weeks ago seemed to indicate that Chinese models were nipping at the Americans’ heels.1 Z.ai especially made waves when it beat Anthropic’s famous Mythos model on one measure of cyber-hacking capabilities:

Chinese AI ​startup Z.ai said on Friday its open-source GLM-5.3 model had neared Anthropic’s restricted Mythos 5 in identifying software vulnerabilities…Z.ai said GLM-5.3 scored 84.5% on CyberGym, a test of whether a model can review code, identify security flaws and confirm that they are real. That was slightly higher than the 83.8% it reported for Mythos 5. The results have not been independently verified.

Note that this is just one measure of cybersecurity prowess, and that Mythos was still comfortably ahead on other measures:

GLM-5.3 lagged behind Mythos 5 in converting discovered flaws into working attacks — a standard part of defensive security research. Z.ai ​said its model scored 54.4% on the ExploitBench test of this capability, versus 78.0% for Mythos 5…In a separate timed test, Z.ai said GLM-5.3 completed 105 ​attack-development tasks in two hours and 130 in six hours. Mythos 5 completed 181 and 247 tasks, respectively.

But still, if Chinese AI could get within striking distance of America’s best, it was a big deal.

What this discourse rarely mentioned, though, is that Mythos is not America’s best. It was simply the best that’s been released. Mythos Preview came out in April, four months before GLM-5.3. And the original Mythos actually finished training three months earlier, in January, and was released internally in February.2 Anthropic delayed its release due to cybersecurity concerns. Z.ai, being a fast follower, probably had far fewer such concerns. In fact, Anthropic has stated that it has internal models that are better than Mythos.

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Mein Ingeborg Bachmann Studium

Recently I finished read Malina, by Ingeborg Bachmann, an Austrian novel published in 1971.  I was pretty stunned by how good it was (it seems less good in English), and I would say I enjoyed it more, and found it deeper, than any of the famous 19th century Victorian novels by women.  The initial story line is a woman having relationships with two different men, one she lives with and the other who is married, more charismatic, and lives right up the street.

And so I have been looking into Bachmann more.  Her volume of letters with Max Frisch, her lover and the leading Swiss novelist of his time, is the best “letters book” I know.  After four hundred pages, with another 180 or so to go, I still am not bored.  It is called “Wir haben es nicht gut gemacht.” Der Briefwechsel.  (This November coming out in English…and probably the letters work well in English?)  Overall, it is remarkable how many ups and downs a relationship can have and persist.  It works best to read only a few of the letters at a time, so that the story does not go by too quickly.  One sees connections between the letters and the unfolding of Malina.

She also has letters volumes with Paul Celan and Henze, those are in my pile too.  (She and Henze were just friends.)  And just this year there was a wonderful new biography of Bachmann, namely Dieter Burdorf’s Dieses unruhige Ich: Ingeborg Bachmann.  I have started that.

There is a movie of Malina, an opera too, and a biopic about Bachmann and Frisch.  I have heard Max Frisch’s Montauk is partly about the Frisch-Bachman relationship as well.  And we haven’t even gotten yet to Volker Schlondorff, have we?

Bachmann has poetry in German, and a new edition of her short stories is coming out this fall in English.

It is wonderful to discover something/someone so new and unexpected.  And as I get older and know more, it happens less frequently than it used to.

I will continue with this.  Amazing (and charming) how many words people can spill about “stuff”!

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Is Lichtenstein an actual monarchy?

It seems so:

Internal documents reviewed by the FT show that three days earlier, behind the walls of Vaduz Castle, Europe’s wealthiest ruling dynasty had quietly approved an overhaul that strengthens the authority of a prince who already wields extraordinary power over his 42,000 citizens, while reducing some of the rights and checks exercised by his relatives in the Princely House of Liechtenstein.

Even before the changes, Prince Alois could veto legislation, dismiss the government, dissolve parliament, appoint judges and reject laws approved by referendum. In June, the Catholic prince said he would veto a citizens’ initiative to legalise abortion during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, even if voters backed it…

The latest changes to the House Law go far beyond succession. According to internal documents, the prince gains greater discretion over who belongs to the dynasty and explicit authority to set rules on family names, titles and coats of arms. The Family Council, a body of relatives that oversees dynastic affairs, will expand from three to five members but loses an important check: the prince will no longer need its consent for pardons, only to consult it…

The reforms were approved not by parliament or the public, but by members of the dynasty itself.

Here is more from Paul Caruana Galizia at the FT.

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Adobe Names Anil Chakravarthy as CEO, Replacing Shantanu Narayen

Annie Palmer, CNBC:

Adobe on Thursday named Anil Chakravarthy as its next president and CEO, succeeding Shantanu Narayen, who announced he would step down earlier this year. Chakravarthy, who most recently served as president of Adobe’s customer experience orchestration and worldwide field operations, will take the helm Dec. 1, the company said. He will also join Adobe’s board.

I’m sure promoting the head of “customer experience orchestration” to CEO will restore Adobe’s focus on creating great tools for artists and designers.

 ★ 

NBA Brings the Hammer on the Clippers — $30 Million Fine, 5 First-Round Draft Picks, and Steve Ballmer Is Banned for a Year

Mike Vorkunov, reporting for The Athletic (gift link):

The NBA levied the largest punishment in league history on the LA Clippers and owner Steve Ballmer on Wednesday after a year-long investigation determined that they circumvented the league’s salary cap rules to help funnel millions to Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers will lose five first-round picks — selections in 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2033 — and are being fined $30 million, the league announced.

Ballmer has been suspended for one year, the NBA said, “for knowingly seeking to help Mr. Leonard obtain off-court income opportunities.” The NBA said Ballmer approved a Clippers deal with Aspiration because he knew it was a precondition for the company to enter into a sponsorship deal with Leonard.

The Clippers, according to NBA investigators, tried to evade NBA rules on circumvention by creating a “novel theory” that it was OK to introduce business partners to players if the player or their representative asked for introductions. The NBA did not find that persuasive.

Basically Steve Ballmer invested over $50 million in a now-bankrupt startup named Aspiration. Aspiration was the jersey-patch sponsor for the Clippers, and after Leonard signed with the Clippers, Aspiration signed Leonard to a $28 million no-show “endorsement” deal. Leonard asked for, and then received, more money than his on-the-books salary.

It’s a classic Microsoft dirty-tricks move to circumvent the NBA’s player salary cap. There’s nothing illegal about what Ballmer and the Clippers did. They violated league rules, not the law. The difference is that the NBA is a league with a strong commissioner’s office that can investigate cheating and impose serious penalties. If tech companies were teams in a similar league, Microsoft would have been fined dozens of times throughout the ’80s and ’90s and ’00s. Ballmer would have been suspended multiple times and Bill Gates would have been suspended so many times he probably would have been kicked out of the league. If there was anything underhanded Microsoft could do to get ahead — or to stick the knife in a competitor — they did it.

That worked out fabulously well for Microsoft. It doesn’t work in the NBA. The Clippers remain a loser franchise that not only has never won a title, but has never even appeared in the Finals. Losing a first-round draft pick each year from 2029–2033 (inclusive) certainly won’t help get them off the schneid.

 ★ 

Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Central North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Central North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


835
ACPN50 PHFO 071144
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Mon Sep 07 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lowell, located several hundred miles southwest of Lihue, Hawaii,
and on Tropical Storm Marie, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen
NNNN


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


903
ABNT20 KNHC 071110
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image


834
ABPZ20 KNHC 071144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lowell, located several hundred miles southwest of Lihue, Hawaii,
and on Tropical Storm Marie, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen



WorkOS: How to Give an Agent a Task Instead of a Token

My thanks to WorkOS for once again sponsoring Daring Fireball. Give an agent an access token and it spreads: into the context window, into tool call logs, into notes it keeps between steps. Each copy works from anywhere, long after the fact.

Relay keeps the credential at WorkOS. Your agent names the user, WorkOS attaches that token, refreshes it, and releases it only to allowlisted hosts. A hijacked agent session is a live process you can kill.

Learn how it works at WorkOS’s blog.

 ★ 

Lowell to Impact Hawaii; Heat Persists in the South-Central U.S.