Neale Mahoney interviews me abut Moral Economics on Econ to Go

 Neale Mahoney interviews me on Econ to go (with a transcript of our half hour conversation).

 "Neale Mahoney: Markets are often treated like natural objects, things that simply exist. But economist Al Roth sees them differently. To him, markets are human inventions, systems we design, shape, and sometimes struggle to agree on. Because when money and morality collide, things can get complicated. Who should be allowed to buy and sell? What should they be allowed to transact? and what happens when people want to trade things that others find morally unacceptable.

Alvin Roth: I think that one of the things we need to do is experiment on what we're morally obliged to do and reflect on it in connection with what we're actually able to do. 

Neale Mahoney: I'm Neale Mahoney, Economist and Director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. On this episode of "Econ To Go," I catch up with Stanford Economist and Nobel Laureate Al Roth over coffee on campus. We talk about what he calls moral economics, the study of markets where society struggles to agree on what should be bought and sold. From kidney exchange to commercial surrogacy, from prostitution laws to the surprising economics of matchmaking, Al shows us that markets don't just allocate goods. They also reflect our values. You've said that markets and marketplaces are human artifacts. They are not just features of the natural environment. Why is that a good starting place when we think about the study of economics?

Alvin Roth: Well, for a long time, economists sort of thought that markets were things that we just had to take as given. You know, we speak of economists thinking of people as price takers, but in fact, they also thought of us as market takers. There are these markets. But of course, markets are human artifacts. To a great extent they're collective human artifacts, but marketplaces are often artifacts of individual companies or designers, or small groups of participants who modify the marketplace to fit their needs over time, just in the way that Uber is a marketplace designed by the company Uber. But I think there's a good analogy, which is that languages are also human artifacts, and they're collective human artifacts. You and I can speak to each other in English because we both learned English in a conventional way, but there are lots of words in our English that weren't in the language 100 years ago, words like computer and internet and AI. So, we're constantly modifying the language to better suit our needs."

Here is the whole half hour interview on YouTube:

 

There's also a Stanford news story:

Sex, drugs & surrogacy: When morality and markets clash
Stanford’s Alvin Roth won the Nobel Prize for improving how markets work. In a new book, he introduces a new way of thinking about society’s most controversial transactions, from sex work to drugs to assisted dying.
  byKrysten Crawford

 

Looking for a donkey

Close-up photo of an elderly man in a hat gazing upwards, wrinkles visible on his weathered face, blurred background.

After two arrests and a national uproar, why is it so tricky to find the donkey once likened to Venezuela’s president?

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

"I'll buy 10 of those"—NASA science chief yearns for mass-produced satellites

There are more opportunities to access space than ever, thanks to a bevy of commercial rockets, some with reusable boosters, led by SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9. So why is NASA launching fewer telescopes and planetary science missions than it did a quarter-century ago?

The answer is complex. It is not necessarily the money. The space agency's science budget this year is $7.25 billion, roughly the same as it was in 2000, adjusted for inflation. This is despite attempts by the Trump administration to drastically reduce NASA science funding.

In the early months of his tenure, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's focus has been on human spaceflight and the Moon. This isn't terribly surprising given NASA's wildly successful Artemis II mission carrying four astronauts around the Moon last month. Since taking office in December, Isaacman has announced an overhaul of the Artemis program, canceling a space station to be built in orbit around the Moon in favor of construction of a base on the lunar surface.

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Is this a painting or a photograph? Is this a painting or a photograph?


May 18, 2026


I have been traveling and tonight have hit the wall as I tried to write, so at this hour am opting for bed rather than trying to grind out today’s letter.

But I’ll leave you with this. Before I left home, I snuck onto the water one evening for my first kayak of the year and caught this picture.

Summer is around the corner, and I can’t wait.

I'll be back at it tomorrow.

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When nationalism inspires blood

So in case you missed this, over the weekend a bunch of white Christian nationalists gathered in Washington to pray before the video imagery of a man who raw dogged a porn star, then paid her off in hush money.

It was, officially, referred to as a “rededication of our country as One Nation Under God upon America’s 250th birthday,” but unofficially it marked this warped, disgusting, disturbing administration’s efforts to establish the United States as a Christian—and only Christian—landscape.

Pretty much all the speakers were hard-core Christians.

Pretty much all the attendees were hard-core Christians.

We are America!

We obey Jesus!

We are America!

We obey Jesus!

We are …

•••

Last night, in San Diego, two teenagers with guns fired upon a mosque in the Clairemont neighborhood, killing three people before turning the weapons upon themselves. Earlier in the day, a mother of one of the murderers called police, informing them that she was “concerned” about her child’s potential behavior.

And here we sit.

As one could have predicted, Donald Trump has nothing of substance to say about this. Nothing. Of. Substance. His only offering (“It’s a terrible situation. I’ve been given some early updates, but we’re going to be going back and looking at it very strongly.”) is typical ridiculousness. What does looking at something strongly even mean? What does it say?

Were this a church in San Diego, with little white children and little white men and little white women, and had the two shooters been Muslim, Trump would have already flown to California. He would have declared war on Islam. He would have cut off more countries. He would have said we all need to praise Jesus in these tough times, that God is the blah blah yick yuck blah blech hee hah.

Instead, multiple attendees at a mosque are dead.

The president is indifferent.

For we are a Christian nation.

llm-gemini 0.32a0

Release: llm-gemini 0.32a0

  • Compatible with llm>=0.32a0 alpha - adds the ability to stream reasoning tokens.

Tags: gemini, llm

datasette-llm 0.1a8

Release: datasette-llm 0.1a8

  • Fix for bug where llm_prompt_context() hook did not fully collect chains of responses. #7

The Looting of America

Reuters

So the Trump administration is creating a $1.776 billion slush fund — 1776, get it? — to pay off victims of “lawfare and weaponization.” Just to be clear, if you’re a U.S. taxpayer, this action means that almost $1.8 billion of your money will be handed out to whomever a panel appointed by Donald Trump decides to reward. The beneficiaries are likely to include January 6 insurrectionists, as well as Trump, his family, and his allies.

Few things shock me these days, but this development — in which a Justice Department that works for Trump is paying a vast sum to “settle” a lawsuit brought by Trump himself — is a new nadir in self-dealing, further revealing Trump’s utter contempt for the American people.

Now, massive corruption on the part of Trump and his minions isn’t new. But the shamelessness of this latest episode of looting takes it to a new level. Until now, we’ve seen a combination of crony capitalism and insider trading. Plutocrats and corporations have been enriching Trump through back channels, especially crypto, in return for government contracts and policy favors, while Trump himself and people close to Trump have been making hugely profitable market bets thanks to advance knowledge of government policies.

But now Trump has eliminated the middlemen, effectively telling his officials to pay money directly to him or anyone else he favors.

Granted, we already knew that Trump was, by orders of magnitude, the most corrupt president in U.S. history. But now Trump is the most explicitly corrupt leader in today’s world. After all, Vladimir Putin has obviously stolen billions, but never this brazenly. Even Third World dictators normally try to mask their corruption.

Don’t say that this taxpayer-financed slush fund won’t have political consequences.

On the contrary, the polling and focus-group analyses I’ve seen say that voters are very angry about corruption. Trump’s theft of taxpayer money, while people are losing healthcare coverage and food aid while suffering from Trump-induced higher prices, is perfect fodder for the Democrats in the upcoming elections.

So we should ask ourselves why the Trumpists have abandoned all restraint. There have been many corrupt politicians in U.S. history – although they were pikers in comparison to Trump. Yet they at least attempted to hide their corruption, or at least keep it discreet and deniable, in order to avoid a voter backlash.

I would argue that the blatant nature of the new looting is a signpost of where America under Trumpism is heading in the months and years ahead.

It’s true that Trump has a base that will support him no matter what, in many cases literally believing that he has been chosen by God. This puts a floor under this support. But his disastrous recent polling, as Nate Cohn writes in the Times, suggest that this floor may be lower than many thought.

Now, we already know that Trump and his allies have no intention of facing free and fair elections. With the unstinting help of the Roberts Supreme Court, they have already rigged the midterms through redistricting. Trump minions are actively trying to depress Democratic-leaning voter turnout, by demanding from states the right to challenge their voting rolls. And it would be naïve to think that redistricting will be the end of the MAGA effort to undermine democracy.

Still, Trump is aware that, even with Republican gerrymandering, November may deliver a blue wave big enough to hand Democrats the House and, quite possibly the Senate. G. Elliott Morris estimates that Democrats will need a 4-point popular vote advantage to win the House, but the latest Times poll gives them an 11 point lead. Why, then, isn’t he trying to be at least slightly discreet in his corruption?

One answer is that even if MAGA loses big in November, Democrats can’t count on wave elections every cycle, and the field is now strongly tilted against them. As Morris writes.

While the situation for Democrats is not necessarily dire for 2026, the situation for democracy in 2028 and beyond certainly is.

So you can think of the $1.8 billion slush fund as a promise to MAGA-world that there is a payoff to be had if they just stick with him for the next two and a half years.

Beyond that, we are, in effect, watching what happens when a quasi-authoritarian regime’s corruption and criminality pass the point of no return.

At this point Trump and his MAGA minions have stolen so much, committed so many crimes — not just theft but taking America to war illegally, abusing ICE detainees, and much more — that if and when they lose power many of them will face personal ruin at best, years of jail time at worst. This would happen even if they stopped committing more crimes.

So there’s no incentive for them to end their criminality, or to end the attempts to bribe others to go along. Either they succeed in destroying America as we know it, or they won’t. And until that’s resolved, they may as well engage in even more corruption and criminal acts.

Think of it this way: The gravity of what the Trumpists have already done has created a sort of black hole at the center of American political life — and the Trumpists have already crossed the event horizon, the boundary beyond which there is no escape. So they will do ever more terrible things, because they have nothing more to lose.

MUSICAL CODA

llm-gemini 0.32

Release: llm-gemini 0.32

See also my notes on Gemini 3.5 Flash, and the pelican I drew using this upgrade to the plugin.

Tags: gemini, llm

Gemini 3.5 Flash: more expensive, but Google plan to use it for everything

Today at Google I/O, Google released Gemini 3.5 Flash. This one skipped the -preview modifier and went straight to general availability, and Google appear to be using it for a whole lot of their key products:

3.5 Flash is available today to billions of people globally:

  • For everyone via the Gemini app and AI Mode in Google Search
  • For developers in our agent-first development platform Google Antigravity and Gemini API in Google AI Studio and Android Studio
  • For enterprises in Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform and Gemini Enterprise.

As usual with Gemini, the most interesting details are tucked away in the What's new in Gemini 3.5 Flash developer documentation. It mostly has the same set of platform features as the previous Gemini 3.x series, albeit with no computer use. The model ID is gemini-3.5-flash. The knowledge cut-off is January 2025, and it supports 1,048,576 input tokens and 65,536 maximum output tokens.

Google are also pushing a new Interactions API, currently in beta, which looks to me like their version of the patterns introduced by OpenAI Responses - in particular server-side history management.

The price has gone up

Gemini 3.5 Flash is accompanied by a notable price bump. The previous models in the "Flash" family were Gemini 3 Flash Preview and Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. The new 3.5 Flash is 3x the price of 3 Flash Preview and 6x the price of 3.1 Flash-Lite (see price comparison here).

At $1.50/million input and $9/million output it's getting close in price to Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, which is $2 and $12.

The Gemini team promise that 3.5 Pro will roll out "next month" - presumably at an even higher price.

This fits a trend: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 was 2x the price of GPT-5.4, and Claude Opus 4.7 is around 1.46x the price of 4.6 when you take the new tokenizer into account.

Given the price increase it's interesting to see Google roll it out for so many of their own free-to-consumer products. It feels like all three of the major AI labs are starting to probe the price tolerance of their API customers.

Artificial Analysis publish the cost to run their proprietary benchmark against models, which is a useful way to take things like tokenization and increased volume of reasoning tokens into account. Some numbers worth comparing:

Running the benchmark for 3.5 Flash (high) cost significantly more than 3.1 Pro Preview!

Here are some numbers from other vendors:

A pelican on a bicycle

I ran "Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle" against the Gemini API and got back this pelican, which is a lot:

Black background, bats in the sky against a stylized moon. Pelican is funky looking. Very good beak. Bicycle frame is a bit twisted, and the bar from pedals to back wheel is missing. Bike lamp illuminates the road in front. Quite stylish.

From the code comments: <!-- Pelican Eye / Sunglasses (Cool Retro Aviators) -->

hedgehog on Hacker News:

That pelican looks like it's in Miami for a crypto conference.

That one cost me 11 input tokens and 14,403 output tokens, for a total cost of just under 13 cents.

Tags: google, ai, generative-ai, llms, gemini, llm-pricing, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, llm-release

datasette-llm-accountant 0.1a4

Release: datasette-llm-accountant 0.1a4

Tags: llm, datasette

Andrej Karpathy Joined Anthropic

Andrej Karpathy, on Twitter/X (XCancel link):

Personal update: I’ve joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.

Karpathy is, to say the least, a star in the AI research field. He co-founded OpenAI in 2015, was director of AI at Tesla (reporting directly to Elon Musk) from 2017–2022, went back to OpenAI in 2023, and then left again in 2024 to start an AI education company named Eureka Labs. He coined the term “vibe coding” in February last year.

 ★ 

John Burn-Murdoch on phones and fertility

From my email:

Hi folks, appreciate the discussion of the piece here, as ever.

I just wanted to chime in briefly with an analogy that speaks to one of the ways I think about the causal mechanism here, and to my mind pushes back against the argument that since past declines in fertility didn’t come from smartphones etc the current decline can’t either.

• ⁠In the past, weight loss generally came from sustained dieting and exercise
•⁠  ⁠⁠Now it overwhelmingly comes from injecting GLP-1s
•⁠  ⁠⁠In the same way that GLP-1s are a technological shock that amplifies/accelerates the old mechanism (eating less), social media is a technological shock that amplifies/accelerates the old mechanism (cultural change)

To my mind one of the ways (possibly the main way) that phones and social media could be affecting fertility is by accelerating and internationalising pre-existing trends of cultural change. One example could be young women’s sense of empowerment and independence, which was on the rise in many parts of the world but has sped up over the past decade or two (I would point to my previous work on the ideological gender divide as one piece of evidence here) and has spread rapidly to regions and cultures that were surely very unlikely to reach this point without exposure to western social media.

Thoughts?

I will add one point on this debate, noting I do not think it runs counter to Burn-Murdoch.  Some commentators are insisting that what really matters is how many children survive to adulthood, not how many are born in the first place.  But both numbers matter a good deal.  Every time a woman gets pregnant she incurs significant costs, especially in older times when death in childbirth was common, or even death or health problems from a miscarriage were a much greater risk.  Furthermore, if you tried for seven kids, but only expected three or four to survive, a lot of times more than three or four survived.  So general survival of all or almost all your children had to be a palatable option, even if the expected value was lower than that.

The post John Burn-Murdoch on phones and fertility appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Tajikistan fact of the day

Tajikistan’s remittances are worth nearly half the country’s GDP—

In Tajikistan, remittances — the money sent or brought back by migrants — amounted to 48% of GDP in 2024. The chart places this figure in context by comparing it with other countries with data for the same year. Nicaragua and Honduras receive remittances worth around a quarter of their GDP — high by global standards, but still far below Tajikistan’s level. Remittances here include two types of flows: money migrants abroad send home to their families, and money cross-border workers bring home from short-term jobs abroad.

Both of these flows play a role in Tajikistan, where most remittances come from labor migrants in Russia. In addition to the roughly 400,000 Tajiks settled there, hundreds of thousands more cross the border for seasonal and short-term work.

According to a report from the International Organization for Migration, about 1.2 million Tajiks were in Russia in mid-2024, which is more than a tenth of Tajikistan’s total population.

The World Bank’s latest Tajikistan Economic Update says that much of the country’s recent rapid economic growth (above 8% since 2021) was supported by these remittance inflows.

That is from Our World in Data, with a picture at the link.

The post Tajikistan fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Fire Chars Santa Rosa Island

False Color
Natural Color
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island shows a dark-brown burned area toward the bottom-right. A thin, bright orange line runs along the burned area, indicating the active fire front.
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island shows a dark-brown burned area toward the bottom-right. A thin, bright orange line runs along the burned area, indicating the active fire front.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island is mostly brown, with a darker brown area on the bottom-right side. Gray-white smoke drifts toward the bottom-right over dark blue ocean water.
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island is mostly brown, with a darker brown area on the bottom-right side. Gray-white smoke drifts toward the bottom-right over dark blue ocean water.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island shows a dark-brown burned area toward the bottom-right. A thin, bright orange line runs along the burned area, indicating the active fire front.
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island shows a dark-brown burned area toward the bottom-right. A thin, bright orange line runs along the burned area, indicating the active fire front.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island is mostly brown, with a darker brown area on the bottom-right side. Gray-white smoke drifts toward the bottom-right over dark blue ocean water.
A downward-looking image of Santa Rosa Island is mostly brown, with a darker brown area on the bottom-right side. Gray-white smoke drifts toward the bottom-right over dark blue ocean water.
NASA Earth Observatory / Lauren Dauphin
False Color
Natural Color
A wildland fire burns on Santa Rosa Island in California’s Channel Islands National Park, visible in these false-color (left) and natural-color (right) images captured on May 16, 2026, by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 9.

Channel Islands National Park, a chain of five ecologically rich islands off the coast of mainland California, is known for its diversity of plant and animal species, earning it the nickname “North America’s Galapagos.” For part of May 2026, Santa Rosa Island—the park’s second-largest island—was closed to the public as firefighters worked to contain a wildland fire burning through grassland, coastal sage scrub, and areas of island chaparral.

The fire was first spotted from aircraft on May 15, 2026, and confirmed by the National Park Service that morning. The Landsat 9 satellite captured these images the next day, when the burned area had grown to 5,690 acres (2,300 hectares). By May 19, it had burned around 16,600 acres (6,700 hectares), including much of the southeastern quadrant of the island. Its perimeter remained uncontained.

The left image is false color, composed of wavelengths that cut through the smoke to reveal the burned area (dark brown). The infrared signature of the actively burning fire front is orange. The second image, on the right, shows the same area in natural color, as human eyes would see it, with smoke pouring over the Pacific Ocean.

Officials and news accounts said the fire was human-caused, though investigators were still working to determine the circumstances surrounding the event. According to news reports, the fire burned near a stand of Torrey pines, a rare type of pine that in the United States grows naturally only on Santa Rosa Island and near San Diego.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

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Anderson confirmed as NASA deputy administrator

Anderson

The U.S. Senate confirmed Matt Anderson on May 18 as NASA’s deputy administrator, the second-in-command of the space agency.

The post Anderson confirmed as NASA deputy administrator appeared first on SpaceNews.

ESA-China SMILE mission lifts off to deliver first global images of Earth’s magnetosphere

The SMILE mission developed jointly by the European Space Agency and China has reached orbit after more than a decade of preparations and cooperation.

The post ESA-China SMILE mission lifts off to deliver first global images of Earth’s magnetosphere appeared first on SpaceNews.

SpaceX launches 24 Starlink satellites on Falcon 9 rocket launch from Vandenberg SFB

SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base on the Starlink 17-42 mission on May 19, 2026. Image: SpaceX

Update May 20, 12 a.m. EDT (0400 UTC): SpaceX confirmed deployment of the Starlink satellites.

SpaceX launched its Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base Tuesday night to send a batch of its Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit.

The mission, dubbed Starlink 17-42, added another 24 broadband internet satellites to a constellation of spacecraft that consists of more than 10,000 spacecraft. More than 600 of those satellites support direct-to-device capabilities.

Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 4 East happened at 7:46 p.m. PDT (10:46 p.m. EDT / 0246 UTC). The rocket flew on a south-southwesterly trajectory upon leaving the pad.

SpaceX launched the mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1103. This was its second launch after flying the Starlink 17-35 mission on April 6.

The booster was previously assigned to the NROL-172 mission, but was swapped for B1097 prior to launch. SpaceX didn’t offer an explanation for the swap.

A little more than eight minutes after liftoff, B1103 landed on the drone ship ‘Of Course I Still Love You.’ This was the 197th landing on this vessel and the 612th booster landing to date.

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Investors fear another surge in inflation

So why aren’t more buying inflation-protected bonds?

Tuesday 19 May 1663

Up pretty betimes, but yet I observe how my dancing and lying a morning or two longer than ordinary for my cold do make me hard to rise as I used to do, or look after my business as I am wont.

To my chamber to make an end of my papers to my father to be sent by the post to-night, and taking copies of them, which was a great work, but I did it this morning, and so to my office, and thence with Sir John Minnes to the Tower; and by Mr. Slingsby, and Mr. Howard, Controller of the Mint, we were shown the method of making this new money, from the beginning to the end, which is so pretty that I did take a note of every part of it and set them down by themselves for my remembrance hereafter. That being done it was dinner time, and so the Controller would have us dine with him and his company, the King giving them a dinner every day. And very merry and good discourse about the business we have been upon, and after dinner went to the Assay Office and there saw the manner of assaying of gold and silver, and how silver melted down with gold do part, just being put into aqua-fortis, the silver turning into water, and the gold lying whole in the very form it was put in, mixed of gold and silver, which is a miracle; and to see no silver at all but turned into water, which they can bring again into itself out of the water. —[Not water — a solution of Silver Oxide. D.W.]—

And here I was made thoroughly to understand the business of the fineness and coarseness of metals, and have put down my lessons with my other observations therein.

At table among other discourse they told us of two cheats, the best I ever heard. One, of a labourer discovered to convey away the bits of silver cut out pence by swallowing them down into his belly, and so they could not find him out, though, of course, they searched all the labourers; but, having reason to doubt him, they did, by threats and promises, get him to confess, and did find 7l. of it in his house at one time.

The other of one that got a way of coyning money as good and passable and large as the true money is, and yet saved fifty per cent. to himself, which was by getting moulds made to stamp groats like old groats, which is done so well, and I did beg two of them which I keep for rarities, that there is not better in the world, and is as good, nay, better than those that commonly go, which was the only thing that they could find out to doubt them by, besides the number that the party do go to put off, and then coming to the Comptroller of the Mint, he could not, I say, find out any other thing to raise any doubt upon, but only their being so truly round or near it, though I should never have doubted the thing neither. He was neither hanged nor burned, —[No! They probably copied his technique. D.W.]— the cheat was thought so ingenious, and being the first time they could ever trap him in it, and so little hurt to any man in it, the money being as good as commonly goes.

Thence to the office till the evening, we sat, and then by water (taking Pembleton with us), over the water to the Halfway House, where we played at ninepins, and there my damned jealousy took fire, he and my wife being of a side and I seeing of him take her by the hand in play, though I now believe he did [it] only in passing and sport. Thence home and being 10 o’clock was forced to land beyond the Custom House, and so walked home and to my office, and having dispatched my great letters by the post to my father, of which I keep copies to show by me and for my future understanding, I went home to supper and bed, being late.

The most observables in the making of money which I observed to-day, is the steps of their doing it.

  1. Before they do anything they assay the bullion, which is done, if it be gold, by taking an equal weight of that and of silver, of each a small weight, which they reckon to be six ounces or half a pound troy; this they wrap up in within lead.

    If it be silver, they put such a quantity of that alone and wrap it up in lead, and then putting them into little earthen cupps made of stuff like tobacco pipes, and put them into a burning hot furnace, where, after a while, the whole body is melted, and at last the lead in both is sunk into the body of the cupp, which carries away all the copper or dross with it, and left the pure gold and silver embodyed together, of that which hath both been put into the cupp together, and the silver alone in these where it was put alone in the leaden case. And to part the silver and the gold in the first experiment, they put the mixed body into a glass of aqua-fortis, which separates them by spitting out the silver into such small parts that you cannot tell what it becomes, but turns into the very water and leaves the gold at the bottom clear of itself, with the silver wholly spit out, and yet the gold in the form that it was doubled together in when it was a mixed body of gold and silver, which is a great mystery; and after all this is done to get the silver together out of the water is as strange.

    But the nature of the assay is thus: the piece of gold that goes into the furnace twelve ounces, if it comes out again eleven ounces, and the piece of silver which goes in twelve and comes out again eleven and two pennyweight, are just of the alloy of the standard of England. If it comes out, either of them, either the gold above eleven, as very fine will sometimes within very little of what it went in, or the silver above eleven and two pennyweight, as that also will sometimes come out eleven and ten penny weight or more, they are so much above the goodness of the standard, and so they know what proportion of worse gold and silver to put to such a quantity of the bullion to bring it to the exact standard. And on the contrary, [if] it comes out lighter, then such a weight is beneath the standard, and so requires such a proportion of fine metal to be put to the bullion to bring it to the standard, and this is the difference of good and bad, better and worse than the standard, and also the difference of standards, that of Seville being the best and that of Mexico worst, and I think they said none but Seville is better than ours.

  2. They melt it into long plates, which, if the mould do take ayre, then the plate is not of an equal heaviness in every part of it, as it often falls out.

  3. They draw these plates between rollers to bring them to an even thickness all along and every plate of the same thickness, and it is very strange how the drawing it twice easily between the rollers will make it as hot as fire, yet cannot touch it. —[Many principles of Physics had not yet then been deliniated. D.W.]—

  4. They bring it to another pair of rollers, which they call adjusting it, which bring it to a greater exactness in its thickness than the first could be.

  5. They cut them into round pieces, which they do with the greatest ease, speed, and exactness in the world.

  6. They weigh these, and where they find any to be too heavy they file them, which they call sizeing them; or light, they lay them by, which is very seldom, but they are of a most exact weight, but however, in the melting, all parts by some accident not being close alike, now and then a difference will be, and, this filing being done, there shall not be any imaginable difference almost between the weight of forty of these against another forty chosen by chance out of all their heaps.

  7. These round pieces having been cut out of the plates, which in passing the rollers are bent, they are sometimes a little crooked or swelling out or sinking in, and therefore they have a way of clapping 100 or 2 together into an engine, which with a screw presses them so hard that they come out as flat as is possible.

  8. They blanch them.

  9. They mark the letters on the edges, which is kept as the great secret by Blondeau, who was not in the way, and so I did not speak with him to-day.1

  10. They mill them, that is, put on the marks on both sides at once with great exactness and speed, and then the money is perfect.

    The mill is after this manner: one of the dyes, which has one side of the piece cut, is fastened to a thing fixed below, and the other dye (and they tell me a payre of dyes will last the marking of 10,000l. before it be worn out, they and all other their tools being made of hardened steel, and the Dutchman who makes them is an admirable artist, and has so much by the pound for every pound that is coyned to find a constant supply of dyes) to an engine above, which is moveable by a screw, which is pulled by men; and then a piece being clapped by one sitting below between the two dyes, when they meet the impression is set, and then the man with his finger strikes off the piece and claps another in, and then the other men they pull again and that is marked, and then another and another with great speed.

They say that this way is more charge to the King than the old way, but it is neater, freer from clipping or counterfeiting, the putting of the words upon the edges being not to be done (though counterfeited) without an engine of the charge and noise that no counterfeit will be at or venture upon, and it employs as many men as the old and speedier.

They now coyne between 16l. and 24,000l. in a week.

At dinner they did discourse very finely to us of the probability that there is a vast deal of money hid in the land, from this:—

That in King Charles’s time there was near ten millions of money coyned, besides what was then in being of King James’s and Queene Elizabeth’s, of which there is a good deal at this day in being.

Next, that there was but 750,000l. coyned of the Harp and Crosse money, and of this there was 500,000l. brought in upon its being called in. And from very good arguments they find that there cannot be less of it in Ireland and Scotland than 100,000l.; so that there is but 150,000l. missing; and of that, suppose that there should be not above 650,000 still remaining, either melted down, hid, or lost, or hoarded up in England, there will then be but 100,000l. left to be thought to have been transported.

Now, if 750,000l. in twelve years’ time lost but a 100,000l. in danger of being transported, then within thirty-five years’ time will have lost but 3,888,880l. and odd pounds; and as there is 650,000l. remaining after twelve years’ time in England, so after thirty-five years’ time, which was within this two years, there ought in proportion to have been resting 6,111,120l. or thereabouts, beside King James’s and Queen Elizabeth’s money.

Now that most of this must be hid is evident, as they reckon, because of the dearth of money immediately upon the calling-in of the State’s money, which was 500,000l. that came in; and yet there was not any money to be had in this City, which they say to their own observation and knowledge was so. And therefore, though I can say nothing in it myself, I do not dispute it.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Gen Z’s Political Gender Divide Is Now Showing Up In Schools

Young men and women split sharply in 2024. Teachers and students say that rift is reshaping classrooms, friendships and dating.

On November 5, 2024, men and women around the U.S. headed to the polls to decide a race hyped as a battle of the sexes.

By evening’s end, Kamala Harris’ quest to punch through the “highest, hardest glass ceiling” and become America’s first female president lay in shambles. Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s undisputed alpha male since 2015, would return to the White House. And voters, especially the youngest ones, were starkly divided along gender lines.

As in each of the three previous federal elections, women’s support for the Democratic ticket considerably exceeded men’s. But the gulf separating Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 was historically wide: According to an analysis by Catalist, a data and analytics company that contracts with progressive organizations, Harris won the backing of 63 percent of women and just 46 percent of men.

The 17-point gap cleaving through Generation Z was not only bigger than that of every other age group; it was comfortably the largest Catalist had measured across four presidential cycles. Surveys of Trump’s approval conducted by NBC News corroborated the same trend the following year, showing disparities between the men and women of Gen Z that eclipsed smaller splits among Millennials, Gen Xers and Baby Boomers.

Jennifer Benz, a political scientist who leads the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, said findings like that were consistent across surveys she administered prior to the Trump-Harris contest, as well as exit polling conducted at the end of the campaign. Men and women have generally favored different political parties for roughly a half-century, but it was unusual for newly minted voters to lead the way, she added.

“What’s been notable about this younger generation is that the gender divide is already shaping up now, as opposed to when they age into the more typical partisan patterns we’ve seen over recent years,” Benz said.

While Gen Z’s gender gap is a relatively new phenomenon, its features can already be seen in K–12 schools. They spring from the rancorous gender politics of the 2020s, which have left girls repelled by Trump’s policies and boys disaffected by Democrats’ seeming indifference to their concerns.

As the youngest “Zoomers” enter high school this year, they appear to be accelerating toward the political — and often social — estrangement already evident among their older brothers and sisters. Their stories, based on interviews with The 74 and supported by the insights of educators and public opinion researchers, offer a rare snapshot of that polarization as it takes shape. In America’s college campuses and high school homerooms, young adults are seeing the world differently, occupying separate online spaces and even demonstrating an aversion to dating.

Sarah Campbell, a high school teacher in Brunswick, Maine, said she’d noticed a pronounced change in her social studies classroom. Earlier in her career, students broadly approached discussions of politics and public policy with open minds. But over the past 10 years, a growing number have entered those conversations “already aligned with certain ideas.”

“I’ve had girls talk about things like safety, rights or future opportunities in very real, personal ways, and in the same conversation, boys are questioning whether those issues are still relevant,” Campbell wrote in an email. “They’re not just disagreeing, they’re experiencing these issues from completely different realities.”

‘Feminism rooted in me’

Those distinct worldviews may have origins stretching long before adolescence. Celeste Lay, a professor at Tulane University who studies how young people acquire political beliefs, noted that their beginnings overlap with children’s early attempts to fashion adult identities for themselves.

“At the same time young people are going through political socialization, they’re also going through gender socialization,” she said. “So as they’re developing their politics, they’re learning what it means to be a boy or a girl and what society says those concepts mean.”

In a 2022 paper, Lay and several co-authors used survey data from more than 1,500 children to determine when they start to examine the world through the lens of partisanship. They discovered that kids as young as six are already tottering down the path to the ballot box, and nearly half the study’s participants affiliated with a party by the age of 12.

A high school senior named Lily was once such a novice partisan. Raised in South Lyon, Michigan, along the outskirts of Metro Detroit, she was encouraged by liberal-minded parents to take an interest in U.S. history and current events. When she was 8, the Democrats nominated the first woman to lead a major party’s presidential ticket. After that, her course was set.

“This sense of feminism rooted in me because my parents were letting me educate myself,” Lily recalled. “When Hillary Clinton was up against Trump, I was like, ‘There’s never been a female president! I have to support her.’”

A decade after that formative electoral heartbreak, she spoke to The 74 while taking part in the National Student Leadership Council, a for-profit summer program offering learning experiences in a range of fields. Alongside a few dozen others with similarly arcane interests in bicameralism and campaign finance, Lily — whose last name has been withheld to allow her and her peers to speak freely about political matters — spent nine days last July at the Georgetown University campus. In between sessions role-playing as U.S. congressmen, the group made field trips to walk the halls of the Capitol in person.

Lily and her fellow government enthusiasts might reasonably be called some of the most civically engaged high schoolers in the nation. But countless girls her age followed a similar trajectory to both political consciousness and the political left.

In the years spanning the Clinton and Biden administrations, the youngest female voters steadily warmed to the label of “liberal” (historically the least-popular ideological category). By 2023, Gallup research shows, the proportion of women aged 18–29 who described themselves as liberal had leapt from 28 percent to 40 percent, while liberal men of the same age stalled at 25 percent over that period.

The evolution was not merely rhetorical. Teenage and 20-something women adopted more progressive stances on the environment, abortion, gun rights, marijuana access, the Israel-Palestine conflict and an array of other cultural issues. Today, the women of Gen Z are commonly regarded as the single most liberal voter demographic.

Marie Sarnacki, an English and history instructor in South Lyon, contrasted recent waves of female students with those in her own graduating class of 2009. While stipulating that she spoke only for herself, Sarnacki added that girls in 2026 had far fewer reservations about voicing feminist beliefs on some of the most pressing questions of the day.

“I don’t know if they would give themselves the label, but it’s safe to say they’re more open about their concern for reproductive rights or supporting classmates who are gay,” she said.

The elephant in the room

Sarnacki believes that the ideological shift she has witnessed throughout 11 years in the classroom can be substantially explained by a corresponding development unfolding on the right.

Trump’s presidencies, each achieved through the historic defeat of female candidates, have repeatedly pushed debates around sexism and women’s rights to the center of the national agenda, she argued. From the Women’s March to the #MeToo-inflected Kavanaugh hearings, the demise of Roe v. Wadeand the president’s demeaning comments about various female opponents, the Trump era may have hastened a leftward drift that was already in progress.

Daniel Cox, director of the conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI)’s Survey Center on American Life, agreed with Sarnacki. While women have lately gained ground against or even pulled ahead of men in some professional and educational spheres, he continued, many of the most “momentous cultural events” of the last 10 years led them to the conclusion that their rights were imperiled.

“They were doing really well in higher education and high schools in terms of AP courses and graduation rates, and tons of statistics suggest that young women were comparatively doing better than men,” Cox said. “But when they looked around politics and the culture, they were upset about a lot of things and became politically active.”

Public opinion research provides clear signs that their dissatisfaction remains high during the second Trump presidency — and is equally vivid among those too young to participate in elections. An AP-NORC survey from last summer revealed that, within a representative panel of children aged 13–17, girls were vastly more negative than boys in their assessments of Trump (-38 from females versus -7 favorability from male respondents) and the GOP (-16 from girls and +2 from boys), while also much warmer toward the Democratic Party (+13 from girls and -5 from boys).

Trump’s macho stylings and media omnipresence play a crucial role in expanding the rift. Lily remarked that he has become an inescapable figure, whether in school or on social media. If anything, the president’s ubiquity was actually heightened by his reelection defeat in 2020, which lengthened his time in the spotlight.

“He’s so loud, with all the scandalous things he’s done,” she said. “You can avoid the news, but you can’t avoid him.”

Another participant in the NSLC’s Georgetown session was Cate, a junior enrolled at a small private school in Louisville, Kentucky. Like Lily, she said she was motivated by societal injustice to become involved in politics. Her father is gay, and his experiences were part of what spurred her to activism.

But whether engaged in private discussions with friends or public outreach through her school’s Human Rights Club, Cate felt frustrated by her male classmates’ lack of interest in the politics of Kentucky or the wider world.

She expressed particular disappointment with boys in her school who, she suspected, held views similar to hers but would not voice them out of fear of losing face with friends who “idolize” Trump’s brash manner. The gush of short-form entertainment glorifying the president on platforms like TikTok helped foster a hero worship that was difficult to puncture.

It was understandable that young men would seek to emulate a powerful personality, Cate said, specifically citing the 2024 assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. The moment after that attack, when the then-candidate rose to his feet and exhorted his audience to “fight,” has become a centerpiece of video edits aimed at teenage boys, she said. Yet his influence heightened a dynamic in which “empathy is seen by this generation of men as weak, feminine.”

“It gets into all this misogyny,” she lamented. “But women, who don’t care about that and can be empathetic loudly, are more able to share their political opinions.”

‘Where am I in this equation?’

Girls were not alone in observing the stridency of gender conflict. Nor were self-described progressives the only ones to complain about its occasionally personal nature.

Nathan, a junior from the prosperous suburban enclave of Westfield, New Jersey, struck a note of bemusement when describing an oft-abused target of the online right: left-leaning white women, a category encompassing many of the students he’d met that week at Georgetown.

“There’s a stereotype that liberal white women are self-hating,” he said. “And supposedly it’s not feminine, and it’s not attractive, and it’s not manly if you support it.”

Voluble and direct, Nathan described himself as a “right-winger,” one of the few participating in the program. But he professed no admiration for political harangues mingled with sexism, and he objected to the treatment suffered by some of his gay classmates at home, who he said were frequently mocked in private.

Instead, along with several other male students, he spent much of an hour-long conversation with The 74 lampooning the fixation of social authorities — including his school’s leaders — with identity politics. A multitude of perceived sins drew their attention, including the proliferation of various “heritage months” across the school calendar and the alleged maligning of the Founding Fathers in history curricula. The most annoying of these were dismissed as “virtue signaling.”

Many politically engaged young men share Nathan’s perspective on the newfound prominence of equity-focused language and policies.

This is, in fact, a key distinction between male and female Zoomers. According to an AP-NORC poll released in 2022, Gen Z men and their Millennial counterparts were only about half as likely as women to “closely follow” news coverage of social issues. And while the rising salience of such causes, including LGBT rights and abortion, have clearly played a role in politically activating many American women, they do not appear to have galvanized men to support Democratic candidates.

While Catalist’s overview of the election results shows that both men and women became more likely to vote Republican between 2020 and 2024, the gender gap across all ages was principally driven by men abandoning the Democratic Party.

Monty, a junior from deep-blue San Diego, said that students attending his private high school were “extremely left,” and typically surrounded by friends and family members of the same mindset. A strong impulse to activism also pervaded the halls, he added, attracting a number of his peers to Pride marches and No Kings rallies over the past year.

As Monty described it, the somewhat airless ideology of his school mirrored that of the larger progressive movement: Just as he’d periodically felt isolated during a long stretch of school assemblies commemorating the historic contributions of women and minority groups, a groundswell of “stranded people” were successfully targeted by the Trump campaign with identity-focused appeals.

“You have all these other groups represented, and then you have a generation of these young white males saying, ‘Okay, where am I in this equation? Because I’m not Black, I’m not a woman, I’m not LGBTQ, and I don’t know where I’m going to fit into this,’” Monty said.

Rachel Janfaza is an independent researcher who writes the newsletter The Up and Up, which aims to surface the attitudes of Gen Z for a national audience by convening focus groups and listening sessions around the United States. In an interview, she said Democrats had “fumbled” in 2024 with a critical group of potential male supporters.

“I don’t think the Republican Party necessarily set out to attract young men from the start, but the Democratic Party being so coded as being friendly to women made it hard for young men to see themselves in that party,” Janfaza said. “A lot of the men I spoke to who voted for Trump in 2024 felt like they were still not being messaged to by the Democratic Party.”

‘This system doesn’t benefit us’

Part of the difficulty in communicating to Gen Z is the fact that, beneath the level of partisan affiliation, its members’ perceptions of society and gender often differ significantly.

Nowhere is this clearer than in the respective views of men and women toward feminism, a cause that has continually gained public support since the 1960s. Women have always been more keen than men to accept the label of “feminist,” but a 2023 poll from AEI showed that over half of male Millennials said the term fit them personally; that figure was actually higher than the proportion of women from preceding generations who agreed with the description.

Yet far fewer of the youngest male respondents agreed. Zoomer men were only as likely as those in Gen X — a group more than twice their age — to call themselves feminists. Between that striking reversion and the leap in self-described feminism among younger women, Gen Z saw the widest gender gap on the issue of any age cohort.

In the same survey, 23 percent of Gen Z men said they had experienced gender-based discrimination, a nearly fourfold increase over the oldest men included in the sample. Women are also increasingly likely to express this belief, with half of all Gen Z females saying they’d been discriminated against (compared with just 38 percent of Boomer women).

Some fear that such sharp departures on fundamental questions will foment mutual resentment. Nathan, the New Jersey high schooler, said that boys his age were becoming embittered by a lack of recognition from the political left. In particular, he said that white males could be alienated from the Democratic Party in the same way that African Americans tossed aside their Republican allegiances in the 20th century.

“I think a similar situation is happening with young white men,” Nathan said. “They’re like, ‘This system, this establishment, doesn’t benefit us in any way. We have no stake in maintaining it.’”

Meanwhile, dramatic developments in the political realm can leave residue in the social one. The interpersonal relations of men and women are under greater strain than at any time in the past few decades, epitomized by a plummeting number of teenagers exploring romantic relationships. While almost 90 percent of high school seniors reported that they’d gone out on at least one date in 1987, according to a recent poll by the Institute for Family Studies, only about half said the same in 2024.

Competing partisanship seems to be at least partially responsible for the decline. A poll last year conducted by NPR and PBS News found that 60 percent of Zoomers agreed that it was “important to date or marry someone who shared your political views”; by contrast, 62 percent of respondents aged 60 or older said that politics didn’t carry much weight in matters of the heart. In a broader report published last year on the American dating scene, fully three-quarters of single women with a college degree said they would think twice before dating a Trump supporter.

Campbell, the Maine social studies teacher, said she had seen both sides of the dichotomy in her high school class. Girls are increasingly hesitant to pair off, or even socialize, with male classmates. Boys jokingly attack one another as “simps” — a slang term for men desperate for the attention of women — and have become “much more likely to push back” in class discussions of gender differences.

“There is almost a defensiveness in their attitude, as if I am trying to tell them they aren’t important and girls are,” Campbell wrote. “It is genuinely a shift that is concerning to me.”

Lily, who now attends high school in State College, Pennsylvania, didn’t address her dating life. But she opined that the apparently right-wing outlook expressed by some boys may simply reflect their wish to fit in — an instinct with which she sympathized.

“The same way we find ourselves in social situations where we’re pressured to join some clique, that’s present in our political positions too,” she said. “And guys experience that too. I just think they’re better at hiding it.”

What comes next?

Neither students, teachers, nor researchers could guess whether the gender gap would reverse with time or continue to grow.

In his sixth year in office, young women haven’t relented in their hostility for Donald Trump. In fact, it might be said that American women and the Democratic Party have become increasingly synonymous, both measurably more feminist, more liberal, and more credentialed than they were a generation ago. According to Gallup data, one out of every three Democrats is now a college-educated woman.

On the other hand, it is far from clear whether a sufficiently large number of today’s high school boys will reverse course and embrace the Democratic candidate in 2028. A recently released edition of the semi-annual Yale Youth Poll showed that 68 percent of voters aged 18–22 disapprove of Trump’s performance in office, a four-point increase since the previous fall; still, men in that age range actually became less favorable toward the Democrats during that same five-month span.

If national Republicans hope that disenchantment brings them an army of converts, they may find themselves disappointed. AEI’s Cox said the evidence from most polling and election results shows only that young men have become hostile toward Democrats — not that they have become doctrinaire conservatives.

“I’m not even sure they like the Republicans that much, honestly,” Cox said. “It’s not so much that they’re attracted to the whole GOP agenda — it’s that, between the two parties, they’re looking at which one seems more receptive to the concerns they have.”

Asher, visiting NLSC’s summer program from Pennsylvania’s solid-blue Delaware County, said he would have voted for the Democratic ticket in 2024 had he been old enough. The measured junior particularly came to admire Tim Walz after he was selected as Harris’s vice-presidential pick.

Yet he critiqued the way in which the party sought to woo men as “pandering,” including an affinity group launched to rally “White Dudes for Harris,” and Walz’s misused football lingo. (The Minnesota governor later disclosed that he saw his ability to “code talk to white guys” as one of his major contributions to the campaign.)

Nathan recalled an episode that saw Walz join Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a gaming session streamed on the popular service Twitch. “They had the most artificial attempts to win over men,” he marveled. “Tim Walz and AOC playing video games, and you could tell they weren’t actually playing. No one related to that!”

Asher — happy to number himself among the relatively scarce white dudes for Harris, albeit one without a vote — said he hadn’t personally felt excluded from political debates with left-leaning classmates, but acknowledged that such conversations sometimes hinged on participants’ personal “credibility” to speak on specific issues.

“I have seen that happen with people: ‘You don’t have female genitals, so you don’t get to have an opinion about abortion,’” he said.

The Up and Up’s Janfaza said that similar complaints are a hallmark of her listening sessions with college undergraduates. Many feel as though their sentiments, goals and desires are so diffuse that they are “talking past each other.”

“When I ask young men and women, ‘Do you see a gender divide in your community?’ they are so quick to tell me that they feel men and women are on different playing fields,” she said. “This isn’t fun for anyone.”

This story was produced by The 74, a non-profit, independent news organization focused on education in America.


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In Virginia, the Moderate Position Is Removing the Supreme Court Justices

To return to the awful decision by the Virginia Supreme Court from last week, which in the era of Trump, was like a dozen awful things ago, what bothers me is the inability of Virginia Democrats to realize that the moderate position is removal of the Virginia Supreme Court judges, as there is a far more radical argument to just ignore the court’s decision*. The Virginia state constitution states:

whenever any government shall be found inadequate or contrary to these purposes, a majority of the community hath an indubitable, inalienable, and indefeasible right to reform, alter, or abolish it, in such manner as shall be judged most conducive to the public weal.

In other words:

…the People of Virginia have the right to change their system of government, entirely outside of any kind of amendment process established by law. That is what it means for this right of the People to be “inalienable”: it cannot be given away, and therefore cannot be limited by law. The process established in Article XII of the state constitution is one means by which the People of Virginia can rewrite their state’s fundamental laws. But, per Mason’s Declaration of Rights, they are not obliged to work through that process.

Even if we accept the state Supreme Court’s interpretation of the Article XII process, therefore, it shouldn’t matter. The fact that the People of Virginia approved the amendment, in the end, is all that matters. Even if the process by which the amendment was placed before them was deficient, the People still had the right to act in their capacity as the true sovereign. Alternately, we can understand the People—who, as sovereign, are also the supreme judge of their own state’s laws—as having rejected the very argument adopted by the state Supreme Court (which had already been made in advance of the referendum). Either way, the Court has wrongly usurped the ultimate sovereign power of the People of Virginia.

This requires an open clash between the multiple branches of government, and arguably might be a step too far for most elected officials. Moreover, it is not clear the majority of Virginians would agree.

The more moderate position is to say that, yes, according to the widely accepted rules (or norms), your horrible decision must stand, but it will be the last decision you get to make. They should be removed, not only to protect the Commonwealth of Virginia from further predations by a corrupt court, but to make it clear to the entire judicial system, not just Virginia’s, that they are not the ultimate branch of government–other branches can and will check their authority when the court misinterprets the constitution.

*Ironically, many of the people really pushing this argument are not the far left (even if Fox News et alia might call them that). One (more) divide in the Democratic coalition is around the willingness to use power.

Laurie Anderson Is Quoting Me

Not by name, but Laurie Anderson quotes me in one of the tracks of her new album:

My favorite quote is from a cryptologist who said “If you think technology will solve your problems, you don’t understand technology and you don’t understand your problems.”

Also in interviews:

“Of course, it’s ridiculous, outrageous, blah, blah, blah,” Anderson says about the ad. ‘But, I mean, my favorite quote on this is from a cryptologist who said, ‘If you think technology will solve your problems, you don’t understand technology ­ and you don’t understand your problems.’ And I think I’m completely on board with that.”

People are telling me that she has been reciting this quote in performances for years. (I lost track of her since college and her 1981 hit “O Superman.”)

The origins of the quote is from Roger Needham:

If you think cryptography can solve your problem, you don’t understand your problem and you don’t understand cryptography.

I modified the quote in the preface to my 2000 book Secrets and Lies:

A few years ago I heard a quotation, and I am going to modify it here: If you think technology can solve your security problems, then you don’t understand the problems and you don’t understand the technology.

I can’t tell you why me in 2000 didn’t credit Needham by name. I should have.

I have used the quote pretty consistently since then. Somewhere along the line I dropped “security” from the phrase, and now say it more like Anderson quotes me:

If you think technology will solve your problem, you don’t understand your problem and you don’t understand technology.

I sometimes use singular and sometimes use plural. Sometimes I say “the problem” and “the technology.” But I think the quote flows better ending with just the word “technology.”

Links 5/19/26

Links for you. Science:

F.D.A. Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe. The agency’s scientists and data contractors reviewed millions of patient records for studies that were pulled back before release.
Helium and the Strait of Hormuz
Babies Are Bleeding to Death as Parents Reject a Vitamin Shot Given at Birth
4,000-year-old tablets reveal magic spells, kings feared, and a beer receipt
Who is Nicole Saphier, Trump’s new nominee for US surgeon general?
It’s just words, Michael, what could they possibly cost? $456,832 direct?
Turns out the Alcatraz coyote didn’t swim from San Francisco, officials say. The National Park Service revealed the coyote is from Angel Island

Other:

Don’t Fall for the Tucker Carlson Apology Tour. The man telling the New York Times he’s sorry he supported Trump is the same man telling his brother last week that white Americans are the real victims.
Samuel Alito’s Voting Rights Act ruling cited misleading data from DoJ
Trump’s attempted golf course takeover threatens years of wildlife conservation
What A Day: What Autopsy? We got details about the DNC’s secret report into what went wrong in 2024.
Congress should keep its hands off D.C. traffic safety laws
Supreme Court gutted Voting Rights Act based on bullsh-t data
Zohran Mamdani: Muslim, Hindu, African, South Asian, New Yorker. How the mayor is navigating his identity – and how fellow desi New Yorkers feel about it.
‘Point of no return’: New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level, study finds
A hacker ran me over with a robot lawn mower. Forget robovacs — Yarbo’s bladed robots are an even bigger security nightmare.
Kash Patel ordered polygraphs of more than two dozen members of his team, sources say
Authorities scramble to limit hantavirus outbreak, trace contacts around globe. U.S. officials in at least five states — Arizona, California, Georgia, Texas and Virginia — are monitoring symptoms of seven returning passengers.
Trump Administration Limits Student Loans For Nurses, Therapists, PAs And More
Republicans Don’t Need to Win Elections Anymore. They Just Need Their Judges.
John Roberts Is Trying to Defend the Indefensible
Meta Is Dying. It’s About Time.
Why Lauren Sánchez Bezos Is Storming the Gates of the Met Gala
Trump’s Corruption Is Going to Sink Him. Conditions are right for voters to stop turning a blind eye to his greed, grift, and gold leaf.
Trump Is in His Ozymandias Era
The Confederacy rises again. Undoing the 1960s isn’t enough. They’re even taking aim at the 1860s.
How a Congressional Primary Became a Proxy Battle Over A.I.
The Corruption Is the Strategy. Donald is not hiding his market manipulation. He is normalizing it
‘Things were going dark left and right’: the race to save US government datasets before they’re deleted
Everyone Remembers Paul Revere’s Midnight Ride. But His Forgotten Race to Secure a Trove of Documents Reveals How Government Records Helped Win the War
Why DC’s Metro Wants to Automate its Trains. Driverless transit is increasingly common globally, but the plan to remove human operators from Washington, DC’s Red Line trains would be a US first.
Trump Library Saga Takes Dark Turn: Where Did Millions in Funding Go?
‘Hondurasgate,’ the alleged US and Israeli interference plot to destabilize Mexico and other progressive governments
The Congresswomen’s Pact: For the first time, twelve congresswomen reveal how they’re banding together after the Trump administration came for one of their own: Rep. LaMonica McIver.
The Trump administration is deleting government data. From infant deaths to hunger, here are 5 ways it’s hurting Americans
Did Amazon just deliver a blow to Josh Shapiro’s White House dreams?
How Immigrant Organizing Flipped Nixon’s Hometown

Reading the Ken Paxton-Trump Tea Leaves

You’ve seen the kind of stunning, kind of not stunning news that President Donald Trump has endorsed Ken Paxton for the GOP Senate primary runoff in Texas. Two months ago, Trump was on the cusp of endorsing Sen. John Cornyn, apparently already had the statement written out. Paxton rolled Trump and rolled him hard. The most obvious explanation for this is that the polling is showing that Cornyn is going to lose and Trump absolutely never wants to back a loser. It may be that. But I see something a little different. Trump has been taking out a lot of not-100% MAGA members of Congress. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is the latest example of that. There were those state senate holdouts in Indiana. It’s happened again and again. On that front, he feels like he’s on a roll. But it’s not just that either.

Look at that other big bit of Trump news: the stock trades. It hasn’t been totally clear in the news accounts, which understandably focus on the zany, absurd levels of corruption. But the trades are really, really recent. They’re very limited, relative to now, through 2025 and then they explode at the beginning of 2026. At least through the end of the first quarter, they just kept rocketing up. And that’s happened just as the bottom started to really fall out of his popularity.

Note that Renee Good and Alex Pretti were both killed in January of this year. His semi-decapitating raid in Venezuela came on January 3. He launched his Iran war on February 28.

There’s another thing. Some of these trades are quite large, in the millions of dollars and seemingly right in the face of big, market-making moves that Trump controlled. So the potential profits are really, really large, by the terms of ordinary mortals. But they still pale in comparison to the orders of magnitude more money that Trump is making with payola payments to his sham crypto, AI and media companies. Since retaking office, he’s made billions on those scams. These trades seem driven by something beyond mere accumulation. They’re instinctive, reactive, carnivorous, gobbling up cash on the table even when it’s neither needed nor even the most efficient way to grab dollars. He can is becoming the only permission structure on the path to he will.

To me they seem of a piece with his decisions in Venezuela and now Iran. I mentioned a few months ago that Trump seemed to be leaning into his all-but-unfettered war powers as a kind of unitary executive self-soothing to compensate for his ebbing popularity and thus power at home. The hyper-aggressive stock trading overlaps in time and seems to be of a piece with it. Trump seems to be in a kind of bust-out phase, realizing that his power is ebbing and you need to grab every dollar on the table, cross every line while it’s still possible. In the mobster bust-out mode, you sell off every piece of movable property until there’s nothing left and you just burn the place down. Look at the MAGA slush fund Trump has now set up to give cash bounties to his most loyal and violent supporters.

This may seem like I’m marrying together two very unlike things: Trump crashing out in terms of his popularity and political power but also on an electoral winning streak. But they’re two sides of the same coin. He is distilling the GOP congressional caucuses into ever-purer versions of MAGA, the uncut cocaine of MAGA. And that is happening as basically everyone else who is not a strongly identified MAGA Republican pulls away. So he’s tightening his grip on a dwindling base of support.

Everything we are seeing suggests Trump no longer cares about winning elections. If he were focused on that he wouldn’t keep doubling down on the most unpopular aspects of his presidency as the 2026 midterms near. But he does. Again and again.

Unpack the Funny, Surreal and Strange in US Politics and Culture With Us

As some of you may have seen on Saturday, we’ve made some changes to our Weekender newsletter. We want to use it as a space to step back from the 24-7 news cycle to reflect on What It All Means and write about some of the entertaining, strange, surreal elements of our politics and political culture that we don’t always get to cover on-site. (It’s the weekend, after all!) We’ve also introduced some recurring segments, including No Words (an image that captures the spirit of the week), From TPM’s Group Chat (social media posts that made the staff chuckle or raise an eyebrow), Trivia Time (a little mini news quiz) and more.

I’ll be leading up the new Weekender alongside our Head of Product Derick Dermaier, and you’ll also still regularly hear from our other editors and reporters, including the indefatigable Nicole LaFond, who often anchored the Weekender in the past. She’ll also be helming Where Things Stand for you Monday through Thursdays.

Please give me a shout at allegra@talkingpointsmemo.com if there are things you love/hate about the look or content of the new Weekender. 

And subscribe here to get it in your inbox on Saturday mornings!

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images the Crescent of Mars

1 Min Read

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images the Crescent of Mars

A slender, glowing crescent of Mars curves across the bottom of a completely black void, revealing its dusty reddish-orange surface and a thin, hazy blue atmospheric glow along the illuminated edge.
PIA26771
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

This view of a crescent Mars was captured on May 15, 2026, at about 5:03 a.m. PDT by NASA’s Psyche mission as it approached the planet for a gravity assist. Captured by the spacecraft’s multispectral imager instrument, this was the last view of the whole planet before it began to overfill the field of view of the camera.

Because Psyche approached Mars from a high phase angle, the planet appeared as a thin crescent in the days running up to the close approach, lit by sunlight reflecting off its surface. In observations from the spacecraft’s multispectral imagers, the crescent appeared brighter and extended farther around the planet’s disk than anticipated because of the strong scattering of sunlight through the planet’s dusty atmosphere.

The image was acquired with Imager A. It has been processed into a natural-color view (approximating what the human eye would see) using red, green, and blue data from imager filters.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post NASA’s Psyche Mission Images the Crescent of Mars appeared first on NASA Science.

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images Mars’ Huygens Crater

1 Min Read

NASA’s Psyche Mission Images Mars’ Huygens Crater

A false-color, top-down view of a Martian surface densely pockmarked with impact craters of various sizes, highlighted in vivid shades of blue, tan, and purple to differentiate geological materials.
PIA26775
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

Captured by the multispectral imager instrument on NASA’s Psyche mission, this is an enhanced-color view of the large double-ring crater Huygens (upper right; about 290 miles, or 470 kilometers, in diameter) and the surrounding heavily cratered southern highlands near 15 degrees south latitude. The various colors in this dramatic scene are likely due to differences in the compositional properties of dust, sand, and bedrock in this ancient terrain. The image scale is around 2,200 feet (670 meters) per pixel.

The image was acquired with Imager A on May 15, 2026, at about 1:18 p.m. PDT, shortly after closest approach with the planet. The images have been processed into an enhanced-color view (to bring out color details beyond what the human eye can see) using red, green, and blue data from imager filters.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post NASA’s Psyche Mission Images Mars’ Huygens Crater appeared first on NASA Science.

NASA’s Psyche Mission Spies Mars’ Wind-Blown Craters During Close Approach

1 Min Read

NASA’s Psyche Mission Spies Mars’ Wind-Blown Craters During Close Approach

An overhead view of a reddish-brown Martian landscape, heavily pockmarked with impact craters and covered in numerous parallel, wind-blown streaks stretching horizontally across the terrain.
PIA26774
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

This view of the Martian surface, captured by NASA’s Psyche spacecraft on May 15, 2026, shows streaks that have formed due to wind blowing over impact craters in the Syrtis Major region. The image scale is nearly 1,200 feet (360 meters) per pixel. The wind streaks extend to about 30 miles (50 kilometers) long, and the large craters near center-bottom of the scene average around 30 miles in diameter. 

The images have been processed into a natural-color view (approximating what the human eye would see) using red, green, and blue data from imager filters.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post NASA’s Psyche Mission Spies Mars’ Wind-Blown Craters During Close Approach appeared first on NASA Science.

Psyche’s High-Resolution View of Mars’ South Pole

1 Min Read

Psyche’s High-Resolution View of Mars’ South Pole

A close-up, greyscale image of the Martian surface, highlighting the intricate, swirling edges and dark troughs of a bright white polar ice cap next to surrounding plains textured with faint craters.
PIA26773
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

This is the highest-resolution view of the water ice-rich south polar cap of Mars captured by NASA’s Psyche mission after it made its close approach with the planet for a gravity assist. The image scale is around 0.7 miles per pixel (1.14 kilometers per pixel). The cap itself extends across more than 430 miles (700 kilometers). The image was acquired with Imager A on May 15, 2026, at about 1:53 p.m. PDT.

With Mars in the rearview mirror, the spacecraft will soon resume use of its solar-electric propulsion system to make a beeline to the main asteroid belt, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. When it arrives in August 2029, it will insert itself into orbit around the asteroid Psyche, which is thought to be the partial core of a planetesimal, a building block of an early planet.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post Psyche’s High-Resolution View of Mars’ South Pole appeared first on NASA Science.

NASA’s Psyche Mission Sees Mars’ South Pole After Flyby

1 Min Read

NASA’s Psyche Mission Sees Mars’ South Pole After Flyby

A greyscale view of the Martian globe against a black background, showcasing a brilliant white polar ice cap in sharp contrast with the planet's textured, cratered terrain.
PIA26772
Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Description

This is Psyche’s first view of a nearly “full Mars” seen shortly after the spacecraft’s closest approach to the planet on May 15, 2026. The view extends from the south polar cap northwards to the Valles Marineris canyon system and beyond.

With Mars in the rearview mirror, the spacecraft will soon resume use of its solar-electric propulsion system to make a beeline to the main asteroid belt, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. When it arrives in August 2029, it will insert itself into orbit around the asteroid Psyche, which is thought to be the partial core of a planetesimal, a building block of an early planet.

For more information about NASA’s Psyche mission, visit:

https://science.nasa.gov/mission/psyche/

The post NASA’s Psyche Mission Sees Mars’ South Pole After Flyby appeared first on NASA Science.

Old space policy vs. new space policy

The emergence of firms like SpaceX and Blue Origin has made space a leading example of how private enterprise drives innovation, marking what many see as a sharp break between Old Space and New Space. Yet little systematic evidence documents when the transition to this new phase of space innovation occurred and which firms drove it. We use patent data to provide this measurement and find that the largest surge in space innovation occurred in the 1990s, coinciding with demand-side market creation, and preceding the entry of high-profile startups after 2005. Throughout this period and since, incumbent aerospace firms account for most of the space-related patenting, with entrants contributing a growing but minority share. The same geographic regions that dominated space innovation during the post-Apollo era remain dominant today. These patterns are consistent with directed technical change: incumbents direct R&D toward policy-created markets accessible from existing capabilities, while entrants bring science-based insights into domains requiring new paradigms. Our findings suggest that New Space is more closely connected to Old Space than prevailing narratives imply, and that government’s most consequential role in space innovation may lie in constructing appropriable markets. We make patent data on space-related technologies available for future research.

That is from a recent NBER working paper by Ruben Gaetani & Alexander T. Whalley.

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Spiral galaxy NGC 3169 looks to be unraveling like a ball of cosmic Spiral galaxy NGC 3169 looks to be unraveling like a ball of cosmic


Why Upfront Costs Shouldn’t Stop You From Seeking Justice

The days following a roadway collision are filled with physical discomfort and a growing pile of bills. Many injured people feel hesitant to reach out for professional legal support because they worry about upfront costs. They assume that hiring a legal team requires a massive down payment or an expensive hourly rate.

This financial anxiety is incredibly common, but it often prevents victims from seeking the help they deserve. The civil justice system is designed to provide paths for recovery without forcing families into immediate debt. Grasping how representation works can ease these common fears.

Most advocates operate on a system that matches their success with your financial recovery. When research begins into how much do car accident lawyers charge in California , you will discover that immediate cash is rarely required.

The Power of Contingency Fees

A contingency fee agreement is a highly practical contract where the attorney agrees to work on your case without receiving any upfront hourly payments. Instead, they agree to take a pre-determined percentage of the final settlement or court award.

This specific structure ensures that your entire legal team is deeply motivated to secure the highest possible recovery for your losses. If they fail to resolve your case successfully, you do not owe them any attorney fees for their labor.

This system completely removes the financial barrier that often keeps injured individuals from fighting massive corporate insurance companies. It gives regular families the leverage needed to stand up against legal teams with unlimited budgets.

Distinguishing Fees from Case Expenses

It is vital to separate the actual attorney fees from the day to day expenses of building a personal injury case. Case costs include the bills paid to secure medical records, file court documents, or hire independent investigators.

Most dedicated legal offices will advance these necessary expenses during the active lifecycle of your claim. This means you do not have to pay out of your own wallet for these vital resources as the case moves forward.

Once a successful recovery is achieved, these advanced expenses are deducted from the final settlement along with the standard attorney fee. This arrangement ensures that your claim is fully supported without draining your personal savings during litigation.

Drafting the Representation Agreement

The specific percentage a legal professional receives is always discussed and agreed upon before any official work begins. This ensures complete transparency so that there are absolutely no surprise charges when your case eventually reaches a resolution.

This fee is formal and clearly written inside a standard representation agreement that you will sign at the start. The percentage can vary depending on whether the case is settled early or requires a formal lawsuit in court.

Having this clear contract protects your financial interests throughout the entire legal journey. It allows you to understand exactly how the recovery funds will be distributed long before any settlement checks are signed.

The Value of a Zero Risk Assessment

Most reputable injury advocates offer free initial consultations to discuss the unique details of your recent roadway collision. This meeting is an excellent opportunity to ask questions without facing any financial obligation or pressure.

During this assessment, a professional will analyze the facts of your crash to determine if you have a viable claim. They can offer valuable insights into your legal options and the potential value of your recovery.

Walking into a legal office for a free consultation costs you nothing but a small amount of your time. It empowers you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions about your financial future and recovery.

Conclusion

Seeking justice after a traumatic collision should never be a privilege reserved only for those who can afford expensive retainer fees. The contingency system ensures that every injured driver has equal access to quality representation.

Working with a dedicated advocate typically results in a much higher settlement than trying to negotiate with insurance companies on your own. Their knowledge and leverage far outweigh the percentage deducted at the end of the process.

Do not let the fear of initial costs prevent you from protecting your family and securing your long term health. Taking that first step allows you to hand over the stress while professionals fight for your complete recovery.

Photo: www.kaboompics.com via Pexels


CLICK HERE TO DONATE IN SUPPORT OF DCREPORT’S NONPROFIT MISSION

The post Why Upfront Costs Shouldn’t Stop You From Seeking Justice appeared first on DCReport.org.

Tuesday assorted links

1.  AI-written story published in Granta, wins major literary prize.

2. JFV on smart phones as accelerators of fertility declines.

3. Maryland markets in everything.

4. Polling Chinese on a top one hundred books.

5. From the excellent Samir Varma, could alien drone probes decelerate in time?  And here is analysis from GPT.

6. “I am thrilled to announce the launch of Totei.com. Totei is a magazine devoted to craft and craftsmanship in all its forms. The name Totei comes from the ancient Japanese word for apprentice.”  From Gaurav Kapadia.

7. The young seem to like AI the least.

8. NYT obituary for Edmund Phelps.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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In addition to space stations, Vast says it will now build high-power satellites

As part of its plan to develop a private space station, Vast Space built and then launched a small demonstration spacecraft in early November. This vehicle then completed dozens of test objectives with flying colors before making a successful de-orbit three months later.

The mission, which tested power, propulsion, tracking, and a multitude of other technologies needed for Vast's Haven-1 space station, was evidently so successful that the company is ready to use its spaceflight capabilities for other purposes. The Long Beach, California-based company announced Tuesday that it plans to begin selling high-powered satellite buses.

"Every single successful space company is diversified in its products," said Max Haot, chief executive of Vast Space, in an interview. "So for us it really was a question of when, not if."

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One Mars spacecraft, two senators, and a cloud of questions

NASA released a much-anticipated contract solicitation for a Mars-orbiting spacecraft late last week, kicking off what is sure to be a hotly contested and potentially controversial procurement.

At issue is $700 million, already appropriated by Congress, to build a spacecraft, launch it to Mars, and once there to serve as a vehicle to relay communications between the red planet and Earth. But the stakes may be even bigger than this, including the possible resurrection of the recently canceled Mars Sample Return mission.

As part of the new solicitation, NASA says it will conduct the acquisition "as a full and open competition." But will it? That's the question that several people involved with this procurement process are asking. And it could turn messy, quickly.

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WHO reports on the global growth of nicotine pouches

 The World Health Organization (WHO) has released a report written by Robert K. Jackler, Divya Ramamurthi and Cindy Chau (Stanford Research into the Impact of Tobacco Advertising), and Ranti Fayokun (Tobacco Free Initiative, Department of Health Determinants, Promotion and Prevention, WHO).

Exposing marketing tactics and strategies driving the global growth of nicotine pouches 

 

"Key messages of the report are:
• The global market for nicotine pouches is growing rapidly.
• Nicotine pouches can be highly addictive; furthermore, some have high concentrations of nicotine, and some increase the speed and intensity of nicotine delivery (e.g. “pearls technology”).
• Labelling of nicotine content is not standardized and can be confusing and misleading.
• Some nicotine pouch packaging mimics popular candy products and contain high nicotine levels. If they are ingested by children, they can pose a lethal risk.
• Nicotine pouches often contain various youth-appealing flavours (e.g. sweet, fruity, mint/menthol), such as Cherry Punch and Frosted Apple, and candy-like flavours (e.g. “bubble gum” and “gummy bears”), which are particularly attractive to children.
The flavours of numerous alcoholic drinks are also used, marketed as “After dark”.
• Nicotine pouches often promote high-intensity nicotine and flavours with slogans such as “nicotine like never before” and visual depictions of the user experiencing a cooling effect.

• Nicotine pouches are aggressively marketed and promoted to young people.
– They are heavily advertised on youth-frequented social and digital media platforms, including through influencers.
– They are frequently promoted with youthful themes, including fun times with friends, romance and sports.
– They are often promoted for “discreet” or stealthy use, making it difficult to detect by parents or teachers, and as a way of breaking the rules.
– Manufacturers of nicotine pouches commonly sponsor youth-oriented events, where nicotine pouches and branded merchandise are distributed by attractive, young “brand ambassadors”.
• Nicotine pouch advertisements often use the tobacco industry’s “playbook” for marketing conventional tobacco products, such as cigarettes, including:
– “lifestyle marketing” and “identity marketing”, the message sometimes portraying how a consumer wishes to be perceived by others;
– depictions of nicotine pouches as “modern” and “high-tech”; and
– portrayal of nicotine pouches as boosting energy when the user is tired and helping the user to relax when stressed. Marketers call this “elasticity of meaning”, depicting the product as something that works for everyone in any situation.
• Nicotine pouch manufacturers market and associate their brands with holidays (e.g. Christmas) and cultural symbols (e.g. patriotism) to evoke happy times and celebrations.
• Messaging in nicotine pouch advertisements can appear contradictory, expressing opposing views; however, this is carefully crafted and tailored to different target groups, such as:
– co-marketing of a nicotine pouch brand with promotion of a flagship cigarette (or other tobacco) brand, while also marketing of nicotine pouches and conveying anti-cigarette messaging (e.g. “goodbye smoke smell”).
• Nicotine pouches are marketed with unsubstantiated claims that they aid smoking cessation and/or in ways that undermine quit attempts.
• Nicotine pouches are often promoted as a product for “Anytime, Anywhere”, with images of places in which smoking is not allowed. This marketing tactic can encourage dual use, hinder cessation attempts and undermine regulations prohibiting smoking or use of other tobacco and related products in public places.
• There is insufficient national action, whereby nicotine pouches commonly fall through regulatory gaps and thus either un- or lightly regulated.
• WHO calls for a comprehensive approach to tobacco control, covering the full spectrum of tobacco and related products, including nicotine pouches, and closing regulatory loopholes. "

Barely Treading Water

Carolyn, my chief of staff, sat on the couch as I ran into my office. The Palo Alto building wasn’t built for tech; it’d been adapted to support the use case over the years. My office was in the center of the building, which had an inner atrium. Way too many windows. Maybe a salon? Great light. We arranged the furniture for 1:1s. A comfy brown couch, a captain’s chair, and a table with a plant that I enjoyed keeping alive.

I was running late because the prior meeting ran long, and I had a mere five minutes before the next. Her normal high energy was subdued. Her feet were crossed, and her ever-present legal notepad was nowhere to be seen.

This is bad news, I thought.

“I have bad news,” she said.

I collapsed into the leather captain’s chair. “OK, spill. Beer bash was last night, and… someone’s in jail? Someone quit? Food poisoning in the cafeteria? Maybe it’s…”

“It’s you.”

Quick readout on my professional report card before I explain how I was failing. The company was growing. We were hiring effectively. The last survey of employee sentiment highlighted a few areas where we needed to invest, but nothing was on fire. Yes, late-stage start-up, so the volatility was high, but that’s a cost of doing business. The measurable objectives were all positive.

“It’s me?”

“It’s you,” she said.

Belief is a Funny Thing

Hard to earn, easy to lose. Often privately held, but publicly displayed. Belief, when it comes to your job, is the immeasurable answer to the question they ask, “Is he capable of doing this job?” They don’t judge every word or act, but every so often, they stop and ask themselves, “Is he capable of doing this job?”

A simpler way to understand this amorphous state: when I hand a job to another person, I instantly mentally grade them on all past tasks. How do I feel they’ve delivered on past work? Great? OK. No further questions. It’ll just happen. Wait, they did it with prodding? OK, I’ll need to nudge them a bit. They completely forgot that part that one time? Yikes. This task may not be completed. Plan appropriately. The glory of having a brain is that I make snap judgments in an instant. The problem with having a brain is that if I’ve landed on a reliable opinion for this human, it’s quite hard to change.

“I’m the problem?”

Carolyn said, “You’re the problem.” And then she slid the yellow legal pad from under the couch and started reading the list.

It was a juicy list. She’d heard from a trusted source that there was trouble brewing for me the week before and had spent part of each day talking to trusted others she knew would speak the truth. She’d dispelled the rumors and had landed on a set of observations from the last six months that painted a picture not only of imminent failure, but of barely treading water.

High on Your Own Supply

This situation arises due to a conflict in strategy. Senior Leaders set direction. Loudly, they exclaim, “We will do the impossible. I believe we can do it.” Important to note: They don’t actually know how to complete this impossible task. That’s your job. Their job is to inspire to tackle the challenge.

Problem is, when it comes to a failing senior leader, we attempt the same move: “I can do the impossible. I believe I can do it.” Like above, I don’t actually know how to do this; I’m using the same motivational technique, except the person I’m attempting to motivate is me. And I’m barely treading water.

Having been in this state a few times, I can name the signs:

  1. I have to-dos to fix to-dos, or, equally possible, my to-do list is becoming stale because of a lack of attention.
  2. I’m adding complexity to everything I touch. Or being unnecessarily clever in order to get something done. Which creates more work.
  3. The number of prequalified complex disasters showing up on my plate is increasing.
  4. When someone else asks about tasks they care about on my list, I keep apologizing and inventing new deadlines.
  5. People are no longer volunteering to help.
  6. Inbound questions are increasingly inbound critiques.

And then Carolyn shows up and tells you that you are the problem.

Leaders Fail

The first fix is a prerequisite for the other three. You have to admit you are failing, and while that is easy to write, it’s close to impossible to admit because you irrationally believe, “Leaders don’t fail.”

Of course we do. Constantly. Like, close to half the time. But the reason you irrationally believe this is that you’ve been drinking the leadership juice, which gives you the intoxicating impression that leaders must lead by example, and that means — no failure.

You fail. A lot. Most of the best lessons that define you as a leader came from these failures. The process of failing, learning, and improving is the example you want to see, and that means starting by telling someone you know who can help:

“Carolyn, I agree. I am failing, and we need to make changes.”

Carolyn’s posture immediately relaxed because she knew what I’m telling you now: “This only works if he admits there is a problem.”

Carolyn: “Great. What changes?”

With the required hard part out of the way, here are three fixes:

Prioritize with Trusted Other(s)

The important part of this first fix is not the prioritization; it’s the second set of eyeballs that you bring into the mix. See, the whole reason you’re in this state is that you are failing at prioritization. It’s not complete failure. If you’re like me in this state, then you’re furiously skipping along the top of the water, touching down every so often to barely start helping with one obvious thing right in front of you before you skip away to the next.

The requirements for this second set of eyeballs are:

  • You trust this person, which means…
  • They will say the hard thing and…
  • You’ll listen to them when they do.

Please reread and consider each of those prior three bullets because I am describing a human being who will be invaluable throughout your professional career. You done? Have you thought of someone? Good. Whew.

With our trusted other identified, you’re going to walk them through the honest capture of every single critical item on your to-do list. Don’t hide the ones that scare you; share them all because that’s the only way you’ll have a chance of digging yourself out of the hole.

How to prioritize? This is entirely dependent on you, your job, the company, the culture, and that moment in time, but I have one piece of advice for you and your trusted other: be honest and be brutal. This is not the prioritization of a single human’s work; this is an evaluation of the health of the entire team. As a senior leader, much of your to-do list directly affects your team’s ability to do their job. You will improve team health by getting your to-do list in shape.

A good starter question: “Is this important?”1 Yes? Leave it on the list. No? Put it on the No list. We’ll talk about the No list shortly.

Second question for the first list: “Can I get this done in a reasonable time?” Yes? Leave it on the list. No? Put it on a new second list.

Moment of truth: how many items are on the second list? If it’s not two-thirds of your original list, someone is lying to someone. Either your trusted someone isn’t giving it to you straight, or you’re lying to yourself. If you actually want to fix this situation, my advice is to go through this initial prioritization once more. I’ve picked that two-thirds number out of the hat, but the reason we are here is that you and your team are not currently capable of getting through the work on your plate, and if you moved 10% of your current work to the No list, you’re lying to yourself.

The second list now consists of urgent tasks that you are not capable of completing. Good news: you have a team, and chances are they are eager to grow, and you have a well-defined list where you can…

Delegate to as Many Other Humans As Possible

This is the article where I, once again, preach delegation. For this version of the sermon, I’ve set you up. You have a list in hand of pre-qualified work that your team is eager to tackle. Your second list is a collection of must-complete tasks, and in order to be successful, you must give these urgent tasks to someone else.

New managers are challenged by delegation because they have to give up the work they were recently doing. It’s a core scaling skill. Both understanding the importance of giving the work away and deciding who is ready to tackle a task. The process is similar for senior managers, except for the blast radius of the work. This isn’t work that affects a person; it has a team or possibly a company impact. That’s why it’s on your list… not getting done.

Let’s look at your second list, the Delegate list. As you stare at this list, wondering who can do what, it is normal to think, “Yeah, I don’t think he’s ready to handle this.” I’m here to tell you to ignore this possibly reasonable perception. Yes, they currently lack the experience to handle the task, but what is the current alternative? Nothing. The task — not completed. That’s complete failure.

The act of delegation is a leap of faith. Yes, chances are they are not ready for it, but:

  • They get to learn,
  • You get to coach them,
  • You demonstrate trust by giving them work you know is beyond their means.

And, oh yeah, something more than nothing will occur. Bonus!

So, where are we? Prioritized into two lists: my list and a list of potential delegations. Chances are, there are still items on the second list with no delegate. Now, it’s time to…

Say No

There’s a compelling reason this item is still on your list. After the prioritization pass and delegation pass, it’s still sitting there pulsing with importance, but if you’ve done a respectable job of the prior two passes, I am here to tell you it’s time to say no to this task.

“But Rands, this was a passdown from the VP, and if I don’t do it, I’m in deep…”

No.

“You don’t get it, this is a critical project that needs to be completed or else…”

No. You have neither the time nor the team to complete it.

“Just give me another day. I’ll prioritize again, and then I’m sure we…”

No. Leadership, especially senior leadership, is about making the hard call. You have:

  • Been alerted to impending doom,
  • Carefully prioritized your work, and are now,
  • Delegating as best you can.

No is progress. Without a no, you have Schrödinger’s Decision. A set of work which is neither begun nor finished. By saying no, you are telling those depending on this work that they need to develop alternative plans. Before no, they were waiting… wondering if you were ever going to be done.

Yes. When you declare “No,” someone important might remind you that “No” is an unacceptable answer. This is not a problem; this is valuable data. What are you going to do? Prioritize, delegate, and say no to something else.

It’s Me

Hour three. Dark now. Carolyn and I sat on the floor of my office, surrounded by pages of her yellow legal pad. Two whiteboards were covered with the lists: the Rands list, the Delegate list, the No list, and the Not Real list2.

Voices had been raised.

Me: “I have to do this.”

Her: “Yes, you do, but these 10 items are vastly more important.”

Me: “Charles isn’t ready for it.”

Her: “How do you know unless he tries?”

We’d workshopped the No list. Who needed to hear the no? What were they likely going to say? What were we going to say then? What were the first items on the Rands list that we’d swap with a vetoed No? The Delegate list similarly litigated. In this case, it was clear I did not have enough direct reports who we believed were ready for showtime, so we started a reorganization conversation. Yes, it went on a list. Yes, it created most items for the Rands list. Yes, it meant more Nos.

Carolyn countered my optimism with measured reality. The Rands list felt unimpressively short, but we both knew halfway through that list, more work would show up, and in the face of the new work, we needed to make it clear to everyone that I was capable of doing my job… all of it.

  1. Important not urgent
  2. A key aspect of the trusted other is their fresh perspective. In Carolyn’s case, she was able to point out items on my to-do list that were not real. They were worries, not tasks. Thanks, Carolyn. I miss you.

Repugnant Economics

I spoke on a panel at AEI with Nobelist Al Roth about his new book, Moral Economics, which covers “repugnant markets,” from prostitution to surrogacy to kidney exchange. A fun book!

My case study was acting. Acting was considered repugnant for over 2,000 years. In Rome, actors could not vote, hold office, or be trusted to give an oath in legal proceedings. So why don’t we find acting repugnant today?

One lesson: weighing costs and benefits is not enough. Roth discusses empirical research showing that legalizing prostitution cut STDs and sexual assaults—against prostitutes and others. But evidence alone won’t shift a repugnance norm. You also have to reframe the activity. Acting, for example was reframed from body rental to a skill requiring intelligence, training and ability. So I went out of my way to say that I am a fan of Aella—though not her only fan—and that I see no reason why escorting should not be considered a skill, requiring intelligence, training, and ability. I can think of few better ways of raising social welfare than making sex 10% better!

I also spoke on human challenge trials. Roth and I agree: challenge trials could have sped up COVID vaccines and saved tens of thousands of lives. We should be angry this didn’t happen. Why didn’t it? Even though most people think human challenge trials are a good idea, there was a repugnance bottleneck because the minority who did find human challenge trials repugnant were in charge. I discuss how to change this.

Al leads the discussion. My comments start at 25:15.

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Maritime China

Painting of a naval battle with numerous ancient ships, surrounded by mountains and turbulent waters.

Far from turning its back on the sea, the fate of Qing China was tied as much to tides and storms as to cavalry and walls

- by Ron Po

Read on Aeon

All non-drone militaries are obsolete

Drone warfare has been a fascination of mine for a very long time. When I read Daphne du Maurier’s “The Birds” as a kid, I imagined what would happen if the attacking swarms were mechanical birds, controlled with AI. When I read about Japanese kamikazes in WW2, I reasoned that someday we’d have drones do the same. In 2013, I wrote a post about the advent of drone warfare that’s still probably the most prophetic thing I’ve ever written. It simply made sense that if we could create AI-controlled swarms of exploding artificial insects, then as long as they had enough battery power to sustain themselves over long flights, they’d be an unstoppable weapon.

Thirteen years later, my imagination has mostly become reality. Batteries have gotten good and cheap enough to sustain long drone flights, and AI has gotten good enough to guide drones to their targets (and, often, to select the targets in the first place). All we need now to fulfill my vision is for AI to start autonomously directing large numbers of drones in concert. That’s coming very soon.

The Ukraine War isn’t the first war in which drones are proving decisive — that would be the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 — but it’s the war in which drones have truly come into their own. Ukraine’s intensive use of drones has allowed them to inflict casualty rates as high as 5 to 1 on the Russian army in recent months, while giving up little or no territory. Around 96% of those casualties are estimated to be caused by drones. In just the past year, Ukraine went from using just a few thousand FPV drones per day to using around 60,000.

You can read lots of stories about how drones represent a revolution in military affairs; the recent Carnegie Endowment piece is a good one, as is the slightly older one by the Army University Press. But to really viscerally understand how deeply things have changed, you have to watch videos from the war. Here is a montage of drone strikes in Ukraine, including a terrifying final sequence where a drone flies into a Russian barracks and destroys it. It’s difficult stuff to watch, but if you want to understand the changes that have come to modern warfare, you have to see it.

The age of the human infantryman is rapidly drawing to a close. Simply surviving an FPV drone attack has become an almost impossible task for soldiers on the battlefield. The drone cordon has not yet become so airtight that territory can be held without humans, but these humans’ job is to hide out in dugouts for months at a time alone or in tiny groups, terrified of emerging above ground lest they be instantly droned. And ground robots are developing very quickly, to the point where assaults can sometimes be conducted without humans on the front line at all.

Drones are also slowly replacing bombers and missiles as a modern military’s primary tool for conducting long-range strikes. Russia has been pounding Ukrainian cities with Iranian-made “Shahed” drones for years, but Ukraine is now fighting back. Ukrainian drones regularly destroy Russia’s oil infrastructure and military supply lines. And Moscow was just hit by over 1000 Ukrainian drones, causing widespread damage and chaos:

To understand the changes that drones are bringing to modern warfare, I went on the Latent Space podcast with Yaroslav Azhnyuk, founder and CEO of The Fourth Law, one of Ukraine’s most important drone startups. Here’s the video and the transcript:

Latent.Space
The Next War Is Already Here. The West Isn't Ready. — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Guest Host Noah Smith, Noahpinion
The future of war has been evolving before our eyes in Ukraine, yet the west still plans to fight the last war. In this special episode, guest host Noah Smith (@noahpinion) and Brandon Anderson sit down with…
Listen now

And here’s a YouTube version, if you prefer:

My interview with Azhnyuk clarified exactly why drones are in the ascendant as the universal modern weapon of war. The reason is cost. Drones are simply so cheap to produce in huge numbers that they can overwhelm any more expensive system.

Here’s Azhnyuk:

The CEO of Rheinmetall, recently sort of ridiculed [the] Ukrainian drone industry, saying that…there is nothing interesting there, no real innovation…One of the best quotes I heard on this topic is from my friend Alexey Babenko, who’s the head of and founder of VIARI Drone, which is one of the largest manufacturers of FPV drones. They’re our partner. They’re using our autonomy. So he said that the drones we manufacture in one day will be more than enough to destroy all the tanks Rheinmetall manufactures in a year…Cost-wise, of course, a drone is like, $500 and a Rheinmetall tank is what, probably 5 million-ish or maybe more…

An artillery shell for 155 caliber…is about $4,000 per piece. So compare that to say, $400 per drone. That’s 10 times more expensive. Account for the amortization of the artillery gun and for how vulnerable it is and what is the sort of tactical capabilities it gives you as compared to a drone. You’ll figure out that an FPV drone is maybe three orders of magnitude, more versatile, more useful, more capable than artillery…Basically, I think a good way to think about an FPV drone is like an iPhone of warfare. [emphasis mine]

People also don’t seem to understand how much AI is now controlling these drones. Azhnyuk and his company have been instrumental in this shift:

Instead of actually [having] a trained pilot who has this complex remote controller device which requires a couple months of training to actually pilot the drone, and then having to pilot it for 30 minutes, flying towards the target, etc., etc., now you…have a drone, you pick [up] your smartphone, you say, “We are here. The bad guys are here. Go and get them.” And the drone goes up, flies in a given direction, localizes itself on the map, finds the dedicated area where they, the bad guys are supposed to be, sees the bad guys, bombs them, return…watches…does a damage assessment, returns back, sits down, and then you can pick it up and watch the video[.]

In my experience, a lot of people — especially in America — still tend to dismiss the power of drones. Until recently, people would insist that electronic warfare would blast drones out of the sky. That excuse has mostly disappeared now that drone technology has found ways around EW (autonomy, fiber-optics, etc.). Now, you see people insisting that soldiers can shoot drones out of the sky with shotguns:

In fact, shotguns are probably a soldier’s best defense against drone attack. But “best” doesn’t mean “good”. Even if you have a shotgun, a drone will probably get you. Here’s Azhnyuk:

[A shotgun is] the main weapon that people use against [drones]…there are…hundreds, maybe thousands of cases of drones being shot down with shotguns…both by Ukrainians and Russians…I was talking to some Ukraine pilot group, and they told me like there was this Russian guy. He was just like Rambo…He shot down like seven FPV drones. They couldn’t…get him. They finally got him, but it was like nothing they’ve seen before, right?…Average non-Rambo will just die.

In case you have any doubt, here’s a video of people trying to shoot down attacking FPV drones with shotguns. It doesn’t go well.

What about lasers? A lot of people think that in the near future, laser weapons will operate as a sort of bug zapper, clearing the sky of drones and returning us to the age of maneuver warfare. That might happen, but Azhnyuk is highly skeptical. He recounted a conversation he had with the maker of an anti-drone laser:

I’m like, “Okay, 10 kilowatt laser, tell me about it…Okay, cool. How much time does it take to take down an FPV drone?” And [the manufacturers are] like, “Well, maybe three seconds.” I’m like, “three seconds. That’s like a lot of time. But okay, maybe fine. And what if [the] FPV drone tries to evade, right?” And he’s like, “Well, we will retarget it again.” And it’s like, “And then three seconds start again?” “Yeah.” “Okay. Well, can it take down like a dozen FPV drones?” They’re like, “Yeah, for sure.” I’m like, “Okay, a dozen FPV drones, 30 seconds? Maybe, yes. Two kilometers? Maybe yes, maybe no.” And I’m like, “Okay, how much does it cost?” And he said something like $3 million or something like that. I’m like, “Okay, $3 million. So that is 6,000 FPV drones…I doubt this thing will be able to handle 6,000 FPV drones or even 600 FPV drones coming at it at the same time.” So you have this kind of economic.

Lasers will probably be part of a layered defense that guards strong points against drones, alongside nets, various types of guns, etc. But essentially everything other than drones costs lots of money.

This is why the drone is the supreme weapon of the modern battlefield. It’s simply an incredibly cheap smart bullet.

As of today, every military that is not centered around drones is obsolete. Here’s a story from February about NATO realizing that its militaries are obsolete:

Russia and Ukraine have shown the world the future of warfare—and America and its allies aren’t ready for it. That’s the lesson of a major exercise that North Atlantic Treaty Organization members conducted in Estonia last May…The exercise, known as Hedgehog 2025, involved more than 16,000 troops from 12 NATO countries who drilled alongside Ukrainian drone experts, including soldiers borrowed from the front line…

During one scenario, a battle group of several thousand troops, including a British brigade and an Estonian division, sought to conduct an attack. As they advanced, they failed to account for how drones have made the battlefield more transparent, several sources say…The NATO battle group was “just walking around, not using any kind of disguise, parking tents and armored vehicles,” recalls one participant, who played an enemy role. “It was all destroyed.”…

A single team of some 10 Ukrainians, acting as the adversary, counterattacked the NATO forces. In about half a day they mock-destroyed 17 armored vehicles and conducted 30 “strikes” on other targets…

Overall, the results were “horrible” for NATO forces, says [Aivar] Hanniotti, who now works in the private sector as an unmanned systems expert. The adversary forces were “able to eliminate two battalions in a day,” so that “in an exercise sense, basically, they were not able to fight anymore after that.” The NATO side “didn’t even get our drone teams.”…

[T]oo many NATO members continue to show “a fundamental lack of understanding of the modern battlefield” and train their soldiers “based on doctrines and manuals that are not adapted to today’s realities,” says Maria Lemberg of the Ukrainian nonprofit Aerorozvidka…Multiple sources told the story of one commander, who observed the drill and concluded, “We are f—.”

Two years ago, it was clear that in a direct confrontation, the U.S. military would walk all over Russia’s clumsy, outdated post-Soviet army. Now, the reverse is probably true; the Ukraine War has forced the Russian army to learn how to fight with drones, while America is still mostly inexperienced with the new kind of warfare. Russia may not be quite as good at drone war as the Ukrainians, but the U.S. has so far made only incremental changes to how it fights. If the U.S. were to fight Russia today, it would be in for a rude surprise.

Of course, the same is true of China. Its military, like America’s, is still focused mainly on expensive high-performance platforms — aircraft carriers, hypersonic missiles, submarines, and so on. But there’s one big difference between China and the U.S. here — China’s peerless industrial base would give it the ability to construct an overwhelming drone-based force very quickly, while America’s withered industrial base would make it impossible to adapt in time.

I wrote about this last year:

In our interview, Azhnyuk said something very similar:

Last year, Ukraine produced 4 million FPV drones. Ukraine is not the most industrious nation in the world. China can produce 4 billion of these FPV drones…China can [also] make…fixed-wing drones, which go not forty kilometers far, but maybe two to three hundred kilometers inland…

They can also make them all fully autonomous. They have DJI, the world’s most advanced drone company. They can make them fully autonomous without GPS, without anything. Then they can put those drones on maybe tens of thousands of fully autonomous underwater submarines, or maybe not even that just on shipping containers and barges that ship goods or freight ships. And then they show up with millions of drones packed onto those sea vessels. They show up to any coastline in the world, be it Taiwan or be it California, and they have millions of long-range impactors targeted at a piece of land.

Here’s a quick snapshot of which countries make drones:

Source: Quasa

Interestingly, the U.S. is still #2 here — albeit a distant second. But worryingly, the U.S.’ traditional allies — Germany, Japan, France, Korea, etc. — make very few drones at all.

Even if they want to, the U.S. and its allies will have an incredibly hard time scaling up indigenous drone production. The reason is that drones are built using a set of technologies that the U.S. and its allies have mostly decided to forfeit to China. Drones use lithium-ion batteries and rare earth electric motors, both of which are almost entirely manufactured in China.

I warned about this in a post last September:

With its control of lithium-ion battery production, rare earth refining, and electric motor manufacturing, China has nearly monopolized the physical technologies that are at the core of the supreme weapons of the modern battlefield. And because China has also monopolized the manufacturing of EVs and electronics — the main commercial downstream technologies that use batteries and electric motors at scale in peacetime — they will be able to outbuild any country whose main demand for drone components comes from the peacetime military.

This should terrify everyone in the U.S. government, and the governments of India, Germany, France, Japan, Korea, Poland, the UK, Australia, and so on. Thanks to its control of electric components, China is now capable of manufacturing a drone armada that can easily outmatch that of every other country on the planet combined, if it wants to. And except for Ukraine, Russia is now the only country on Earth that has first-hand experience of how to fight a modern drone war. The democratic countries are laid bare and helpless before the armies of the autocratic powers, if the latter should choose to attack.

Realizing the truth — that we are in the Drone Era — is only the first step in correcting this fatal vulnerability. We must build an indigenous independent supply chain for the manufacture not just of drones, but of everything that goes into a drone. If we don’t do that, then the NATO commander from the recent military exercise is right: “We are f—.”


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“Wokeness has peaked. What followed is worse.”

That is the topic of my latest column for The Free Press.  Excerpt:

It is important to distinguish between the positive side of wokeism and the unreasonable side. The positive side supported gay rights and discouraged racism in the public sphere. The unreasonable side brought us cancel culture, stifled discussion, insisted on very particular views of race and gender identity, boosted DEI and other race-discriminatory policies, and generally made America a more intolerant place. It was most of all about who had the right to steer the agenda of public discourse, and who had the right to push out dissenters.

The unreasonable side, since it was about power and control, had negative vibes built into its core. Fortunately, American society pushed back against many of the most objectionable manifestations of those negative vibes, but did we get rid of the negative vibes themselves? I do not think so. The American people still seem pretty low in trust, unhappy with America’s position in the world, glum about the economy and cost of living, and increasingly skeptical of both AI and billionaires. That is all happening at a time when the American economic situation, while mixed, is by no means as terrible as it was in, say, 2009. Happiness and mental health seem to be lagging behind the country’s actual achievements.

So what has been happening? The forces behind wokeism no longer command so much public attention and respect when they argue about terms and pronouns. Instead, left-adjacent movements have arisen with a contrasting emphasis on action, and often action of a terrible sort. California is considering, for instance, an unworkable tax on billionaires in the state, one that even most left-leaning Democratic politicians do not support. It might nevertheless pass through via referendum…

What’s more, it is possible we are entering an era with a new culture of assassinations. There have been assassinations of Charlie Kirk, of healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, and several attempts on the life of President Trump. It can be debated how many of these killers had direct connections to the political left, but it is hard to avoid the conclusion that left-wing rhetoric about democracy destruction helped make such actions conceivable.

The social energies of the American left have moved away from the realm of speech and into plans for concrete action, whether in politics, through attempted wealth confiscations, or through organizing violence. In retrospect, wokeism, for all its problems, was a relatively harmless way of distracting activists and keeping them  Negative busy with wars over words—a less-bad allocation of social energies than what we are now seeing. So while I would not say I long for the return of high wokeism, I recognize it has been replaced by a left-adjacent movement that is worse.

Worth a ponder, do read the whole thing.  I should note I do not let the right off the hook either, though the column is mainly about what has succeeded Wokeism.  Negative emotional contagion has affected both the left and right wings today.  Here is one simple case in point.

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Americans’ Civic Identity

May 17, 2026

Thousands of people gathered today on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., to engage in an eight-hour taxpayer-funded evangelical worship event to “rededicate” the nation to Christianity.

The “Rededicate 250: A National Jubilee of Prayer, Praise & Thanksgiving” event is part of the Trump administration’s attempt to use the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence to rewrite America’s history, turning it from one that champions the Enlightenment values of natural rights, equality, and self-government to one that requires Americans to accept that some people are better than others and to defer to their leaders.

This was not Congress’s intent when it established a bipartisan America250 commission in 2016 “to plan and orchestrate the 250th anniversary of the Signing of the Declaration of Independence.” But shortly after he took office for the second time in January 2025, Trump and his loyalists began to take over the planning for the nation’s birthday celebration.

As Dan Friedman and Amanda Moore of Mother Jones explained, right-wing operatives, including the company that staged the January 6, 2021, rally near the White House before the attack on the U.S. Capitol, jumped into the management of America250. But Trump chafed under the idea of congressional oversight and a pretense of bipartisanship, so in December 2025 he created his own new organization, Freedom 250.

Congress appropriated $150 million for the Department of the Interior to distribute to organizations for celebrations of the 250th. Of that money, America250 has been allocated $50 million and Freedom 250 has been allocated $100 million, although as of February, America250 had received only $25 million. Freedom 250 has also solicited donations in exchange for access to Trump. According to Karissa Waddick of USA Today, sponsors include ExxonMobil, Mastercard, Deloitte, Palantir, and IndyCar. Donors can also request anonymity.

As Kenneth P. Vogel, Lisa Friedman, and David A. Fahrenthold of the New York Times explained in February, Freedom 250 has planned events that showcase Trump rather than important events and themes in the nation’s history. Those include an IndyCar race around the National Mall, the construction of a triumphal arch near the Lincoln Memorial, an Ultimate Fighting Championship event on the White House lawn on Trump’s 80th birthday in June, and today’s “Rededicate 250” event.

President Trump was golfing today, but he, along with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, spoke on video to the crowd, assuring them that the United States of America was founded as a Christian nation. House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) spoke in person. All but one of the nineteen clergy and faith leaders who spoke were Christian, and most were right-wing evangelical Protestants.

The video of Trump the organizers played was the same one he recorded three weeks ago for “America Reads the Bible.” The passage was 2 Chronicles 7:11–22, one Christian nationalists believe marks the U.S. as a Christian nation, when the Lord says to Solomon: “If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.”

But the United States of America was not founded as a Christian nation. The Founders were quite clear about that. In the 1796 Treaty of Tripoli, ratified unanimously by the Senate just a decade after the Constitution went into effect, U.S. leaders said “the government of the United States of America is not in any sense founded on the Christian Religion” and has “no character of enmity against the laws, religion or tranquility of” Muslims. They went on to say that “no pretext arising from religious opinions shall ever produce an interruption of the harmony existing between” the U.S. and Tripoli.

Thomas Jefferson, the key author of the Declaration of Independence, and James Madison of Virginia, the key thinker behind the Constitution, both wrote explicitly about the importance of keeping the government separate from religion. Jefferson wrote that “religion is a matter which lies solely between Man & his God, that he owes account to none other for his faith or his worship.” “[T]he legitimate powers of government reach actions only,” he wrote, “[and] not [religious] opinions.”

In 1785, Madison explained that what was at stake in keeping the state and religion separate was not just religion, but also representative government itself. The establishment of one religion over others attacked a fundamental human right—an unalienable right—of conscience. If lawmakers could destroy the right of freedom of conscience, they could destroy all other unalienable rights, including those enumerated in the Declaration of Independence and codified in the Constitution.

Those in charge of government could throw representative government out the window and make themselves tyrants.

Rather than basing the United States on religion, the nation’s founders and framers, as well as Americans of later generations, sought to instill in Americans reverence for the nation’s core political values, especially the right of self-government and the checks and balances that made that self-government possible. In speeches and memorials, novels and poems, they emphasized the sacrifices Americans had made to protect the values embodied in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

That civic religion unified the nation, but it did more than that. It also instructed Americans on the rights and duties of citizens who live in a nation that rests on “We the People.” They must think for themselves, question elected officials, and take an active role in their government.

Replacing Americans’ civic identity with Christian nationalism destroys that vitally important understanding of the role of citizens in a democracy. Instead, it demands that Americans do as they are told, turning them into subjects.

The theme of obeying the leader runs deep in Trump’s politics, and in MAGA more generally. The Bible passage Trump read on video today emphasizes obedience, warning the chosen people that if they “forsake my statutes and my commandments, which I have set before you,” then they will be destroyed. Cowboys for Trump founder Couy Griffin read the same passage at the January 6, 2021, insurrection, suggesting that overturning democracy for Trump was obeying the Lord. Laura Jedeed of Firewalled Media reported that vendors at today’s event handed out buttons that said: “WIVES SUBMIT, HUSBANDS LOVE, CHILDREN OBEY.”

But blindly obeying authority has never been the story of America.

From its origins in resistance to the British government, the story of America has been the opposite of obeying. It has been about questioning, debating, criticizing leaders, and working to build “a more perfect Union,” as the Framers charged us to do. The story of America is how those who believed in the principles of democracy, those ideals articulated by the Founders however imperfectly they lived them, have struggled to make the belief that we are all created equal and have a right to have a say in our government, come true.

Notes:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/white-house-prayer-250-birthday-rcna345326

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/08/us/politics/freedom-250-trump-donors.html

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/02/america-freedom-task-force-250-trump-anniversary-history-smithsonian-kennedy-center/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/02/12/freedom-250-funding-foreign-money/88596100007/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2026/05/17/thousands-expected-rededicate-250-prayer-jubilee/

https://www.npr.org/2026/05/17/nx-s1-5825003/trump-christian-national-mall-prayer-service-250

https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/bar1796t.asp

https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/01-01-02-0027

https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/virginia-declaration-of-rights

https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/01-08-02-0163#JSMN-01-08-02-0163-fn-0014-ptr

https://www.loc.gov/loc/lcib/9806/danbury.html#:~:text=The%20unedited%20draft%20of%20the,was%20an%20offense%20to%20republicanism.

https://www.loc.gov/loc/lcib/9806/danpre.html

X:

KellieMeyerNews/status/2056126721120723183

Bluesky:

laurajedeed.bsky.social/post/3mm2tjt6cpk2q

acyn.bsky.social/post/3mm3auosa6u2p

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Europe Versus America: A Wonkish Data Follow-up

Europa (consort of Zeus) - Wikipedia

The rape of Europa, by Titian

On Sunday I argued against the widespread depiction of Europe’s economy as moribund because its productivity growth has lagged America’s. The productivity numbers aren’t wrong, exactly, but they are misleading: America’s faster growth reflects its dominance of a narrow sector, IT, and has not translated into lagging European productivity measured in terms of the value of the goods an hour’s labor can produce.

In laying out this argument I relied on data from the World Bank. As some economists pointed out to me, however, estimates from the International Monetary Fund look somewhat different. This is odd, and I’ll look into the discrepancy.

I am, however, fairly sure that the picture I derived from World Bank data is right, partly because the story fits together, but also because it turns out that a third source, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — which is good for many kinds of data! — has estimates of exactly the variables I’ve been talking about. Namely, productivity per hour at constant prices, which is what the misleading numbers focus on, and PPP in current prices, which is actually the relevant variable.

The source is the OECD Data Explorer. Here’s productivity in the euro area relative to productivity in the US, at constant and current prices:

That’s the same story I told yesterday: European relative decline if you use constant prices, no trend using current prices.

Again, I am not saying that all is well with Europe. But the common diagnosis of the continent as a museum, unable to keep up with modern technology, rests on bad data analysis.

A Tale of Thucydides

Trump Leaves China After Two Days Of Talks With Xi (Live)

I just moved from one European city to another, so a brief note with no coda today.

When the leaders of the world’s two most powerful nations met in Beijing, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping spoke about the lessons of history:

Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?”

Donald Trump, on the other hand, spoke about fast food:

Just as many Chinese now love basketball and blue jeans, Chinese restaurants in America today outnumber the five largest fast food chains in the United States, all combined. That’s a pretty big statement.

I’m old enough to remember when we were a serious country.

Anyway, should China in fact worry about the Thucydides trap? Not while someone as pathetic as Trump is in charge.

The Thucydides trap refers to the theory, originally propounded by the Greek historian for the war between Athens and Sparta, that conflicts erupt when a declining power is confronted by a rising rival. So Xi was implicitly insulting the United States, portraying it as a nation in decline. Someone presumably explained this to Trump, who went on Truth Social to declare that Xi was talking about U.S. decline under “Sleepy Joe Biden,” not now that he has made us “the hottest Nation anywhere in the world.”

In reality, the widespread Chinese view that America is in decline has only grown stronger under Trump II. According to the New York Times,

In January, a nationalistic Beijing think tank affiliated with Renmin University published a triumphant report about Mr. Trump’s first year back in office. The report argued that his tariffs, attacks on allies, anti-immigration policies and assaults on the American political establishment had inadvertently strengthened China while weakening the United States. Its title: “Thank Trump.”

And that was before the debacle in Iran.

So, as in the Thucydides trap, will a declining America lash out at a rising China? Not under current management, or at least not in any effective way.

Trump and his officials constantly denigrate his predecessor. Denouncing Joe Biden has become their all-purpose response to questions about Trump’s policy failures and cratering polling. But the Biden administration was, in fact, serious about responding to China’s technological and industrial challenge. Notably, the CHIPS and Science Act was explicitly intended in large part as a way to respond to China’s inroads in information technology by boosting the U.S. technology sector, while the Inflation Reduction Act’s promotion of industries associated with renewable energy was an attempt to blunt the impact of growing Chinese dominance in electrotech.

Trump, however, has moved rapidly to cancel Biden’s industrial policy, a turnaround that has, among other things, led to a marked slump in manufacturing construction:

Having abandoned industrial policy, Trump has turned to trade deals. The fact sheet released by the White House after his trip to Beijing proclaimed that

President Trump negotiated a sweeping package of commitments that will drive high-paying American jobs and open new markets for U.S. goods.

The main component of this package was a Chinese commitment to buy $17 billion a year of U.S. agricultural products, on top of an earlier commitment to buy more soybeans. Actually, I should put “commitment” in scare quotes: China made similar promises during Trump I, and completely failed to deliver. But suppose that the Chinese actually come through this time. How big is this “sweeping package”? Adding the extra $17 billion to a best guess at the value of the promised soybean purchases, and comparing it with existing U.S. exports, it looks like this

:

So by abandoning Biden’s efforts and pursuing what he considers the art of the deal, Trump has in effect traded a serious effort to keep America competitive in advanced technology game for a hill of soybeans — and a small hill at that.

I could go on, but you get the point. The global scene right now isn’t dominated by a conflict between a rising and a declining superpower, because the declining power is led by a man who has no idea what makes great powers great, is easily distracted by trivia, is focused on self-enrichment and self-aggrandizement, and fantasizes about himself as Jesus. If you want classical analogies, think of America right now as the Roman Empire under Caligula, although Caligula didn’t do anything like as much damage …

The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

I put together these annotated slides from my five minute lightning talk at PyCon US 2026, using the latest iteration of my annotated presentation tool.

The last six months in LLMs in
five minutes

Simon Willison - simonwillison.net

PyCon US 2026 Lightning Talk
#

I presented this lightning talk at PyCon US 2026, attempting to summarize the last six months of developments in LLMs in five minutes.

The November inflection point
#

Six months is a pretty convenient time period to cover, because it captures what I've been calling the November 2025 inflection point. November was a critical month in LLMs, especially for coding.

The “best” model changed hands 5 times
between Anthropic, OpenAl and Google
#

For one thing, the supposedly "best" model (depending mostly on vibes) changed hands five times between the three big providers.

Generate an SVG of a
pelican riding a bicycle
#

As always, I'm using my Generate an SVG of a pelican riding a bicycle test to help illustrate the differences between the models.

Why this test? Because pelicans are hard to draw, bicycles are hard to draw, pelicans can't ride bicycles... and there's zero chance any AI lab would train a model for such a ridiculous task.

Five pelicans, one for each of the following models. Varying qualities!
#

At the start of November the widely acknowledged "best" model was Claude Sonnet 4.5, released on 29th September. It drew me this pelican.

In November it was overtaken by GPT-5.1, then Gemini 3, then GPT-5.1 Codex Max, and then Anthropic took the crown back again with Claude Opus 4.5.

I think Gemini 3 drew the best pelican out of this lot, but pelicans aren't everything. Most practitioners will agree that Opus 4.5 held the crown for the next couple of months.

The coding agents got good
#

It took a little while for this to become clear, but the real news from November was that the coding agents got good.

OpenAI and Anthropic had spent most of 2025 running Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards to increase the quality of code written by their models, especially when paired up with their Codex and Claude Code agent harnesses.

In November the results of this work became apparent. Coding agents went from often-work to mostly-work, crossing a quality barrier where you could use them as a daily-driver to get real work done, without needing to spend most of your time fixing their stupid mistakes.

Screenshot of "Initial commit" on GitHub to steipete/Warelay, commit f6dd362, steipete authored on Nov 24, 2025

It's a copy of the MIT license
#

Also in November, this happened - the first commit to an obscure (back then) repo called "Warelay" by some guy called Pete.

December/January
(A little bit of LLM psychosis)
#

Over the holiday period, from December to January, a whole lot of us took advantage of the break to have a poke at these new models and coding agents and see what they could do.

They could do a lot! Some of us got a little bit over-excited. I had my own short-lived bout of a form of LLM psychosis as I started spinning up wildly ambitious projects to see how far I could push them.

micro-javascript playground
Execute JavaScript code in a sandboxed micro-javascript environment powered by Pyodide

var numbers = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10];
var doubled = numbers.map(n => n * 2);
console.log('Doubled: "', doubled);
var evens = numbers.filter(n => n % 2 === 0);
console.log('Evens: ', evens);
var sum = numbers.reduce((a, b) => a + b, @);
console.log('Sum:", sum);

Output 27
Doubled: [2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20]
Evens: [2, 4, 6, 8, 10]
Sum: 55
Execution time: 8.00ms
About: micro-javascript is a pure Python JavaScript interpreter with configurable memory and time limits. This playground runs entirely in your browser using
Pyodide (Python compiled to WebAssembly). View on GitHub
#

One of my projects was a vibe-coded implementation of JavaScript in Python - a loose port of MicroQuickJS - which I called micro-javascript. You can try it out in your browser in this playground.

JavaScript running in Python running in Pyodide running in WebAssembly running in JavaScript
#

That playground demo shows JavaScript code run using my micro-javascript library, in Python, running inside Pyodide, running in WebAssembly, running in JavaScript, running in a browser!

It's pretty cool! But did anyone out there need a buggy, slow, insecure half-baked implementation of JavaScript in Python?

They did not. I have quite a few other projects from that holiday period that I have since quietly retired!

February 2026
#

On to February. Remember that Warelay project that had its first commit at the end of November?

Warelay → CLAWDIS → CLAWDBOT →
Clawdbot → Moltbot →🦞 OpenClaw
#

In December and January it had gone through quite a few name changes... and by February it was taking the world by storm under its final name, OpenClaw.

The amount of attention it got is pretty astonishing for a project that was less than three months old.

Generic term: Claw
#

OpenClaw is a "personal AI assistant", and we actually got a generic term for these, based on NanoClaw and ZeroClaw and suchlike... they're called Claws.

An aquarium for your Claw
#

Mac Minis started to sell out around Silicon Valley, because people were buying them to run their Claws.

Drew Breunig joked to me that this is because they're the new digital pets, and a Mac Mini is the perfect aquarium for your Claw.

Alfred Molina's Doc Ock in Spider-Man 2, tearing apart a New York subway train with his four claws.
#

My favourite metaphor for Claws is Alfred Molina's Doc Ock in the 2004 movie Spider-Man 2. His claws were powered by AI, and were perfectly safe provided nothing damaged his inhibitor chip... after which they turned evil and took over.

Gemini 3.1 Pro

A really good illustration of a pelican riding a bicycle.
#

Also in February: Gemini 3.1 Pro came out, and drew me a really good pelican riding a bicycle. Look at this! It's even got a fish in its basket.

Gemini 3 Pro pelican contrasted with Gemini 3.1 Pro, as animated SVGs
#

And then Google's Jeff Dean tweeted this video of an animated pelican riding a bicycle, plus a frog on a penny-farthing and a giraffe driving a tiny car and an ostrich on roller skates and a turtle kickflipping a skateboard and a dachshund driving a stretch limousine.

So maybe the AI labs have been paying attention after all!

April 2026
#

A lot of stuff happened just in the past month.

Gemma 4 26B-A4B (17.99GB)

A pretty decent pelican riding a bicycle, though the bike is a bit mis-shapen.
#

Google released the Gemma 4 series of models, which are the most capable open weight models I've seen from a US company.

GLM-5.1
MIT, 754B parameter, 1.51TB!
#

Also last month, Chinese AI lab GLM came out with GLM-5.1 - an open weight 1.5TB monster! This is a very effective model... if you can afford the hardware to run it.

#

GLM-5.1 drew me this very competent pelican on a bicycle.

The bike is wonky, the pelican is floating.
#

... though when it tried to animate it the bicycle bounced off into the top and the bicycle got warped.

Screenshot of Bluesky

Charles
‪@charles.capps.me‬
I think you should pester it with another animal using another method of locomotion. 

Something tells me it was trained for this. I can't quite put my finger on it. /s

NORTH VIRGINIA OPOSSUM ON AN E-SCOOTER!!
#

Charles on Bluesky suggested I try it with a North Virginia Opossum on an E-scooter

NORTH VIRGINIA OPOSSUM
CRUISING THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE DUSK

And a really cool illustration of a possum.
#

And it did this! I've tried this on other models and they don't even come close. "Cruising the commonwealth since dusk" is perfect. It's animated too.

Qwen3.6-35B-A3B is a 20.9GB file that runs on my laptop

It drew a better pelican on a bicycle than Opus 4.7, which messed up the bicycle frame.
#

The other neat Chinese open weight models in April came from Qwen. Qwen3.6-35B-A3B on my laptop drew me a better pelican than Claude Opus 4.7. That's a 20.9GB open weights model that runs on my laptop!

(I think this mainly demonstrates that the pelican on the bicycle has firmly exceeded its limits as a useful benchmark.)

Claude Sonnet 4.5 pelican for comparison.
#

Here's that Claude Sonnet 4.5 pelican from September for comparison.

The themes of the past 6 months:
Coding agents got really good
Local models wildly outperform expectations
#

So those were the two main themes of the past six months. The coding agents got really good... and the laptop-available models, while a lot weaker than the frontier, have started wildly outperforming expectations.

Tags: lightning-talks, pycon, speaking, ai, generative-ai, local-llms, llms, annotated-talks, pelican-riding-a-bicycle, coding-agents

Glaucous-winged Gull, Brown Pelican, Snowy Egret, Canada Goose

Glaucous-winged Gull

Glaucous-winged Gull

Brown Pelican

Snowy Egret

Snowy Egret

Canada Goose

Canada Goose

Glaucous-winged Gull, Brown Pelican, Snowy Egret, Canada Goose, in Los Angeles River, CA, US

I'm heading home from PyCon US today so I went on a last morning walk to try and spot a pelican. I saw one! Didn't get a great photo of that, but I did see some goslings down by the swan boat lake.

The Bet Against Brain Implants

Alex Smith has a magical hand. It’s made of carbon fiber. It can rotate 360 degrees. And Alex can detach it and still control the hand when it’s several feet away from him.

The robotic hand is built b…

Read more

AI Data Centers Are Deeply Unpopular, Across the Political Spectrum

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup:

Seven in 10 Americans oppose constructing data centers for artificial intelligence in their local area, including nearly half, 48%, who are strongly opposed. Barely a quarter favor these projects, with 7% strongly in favor. [...]

The data center question parallels the wording Gallup uses to ask about local nuclear power plant construction. In the same March survey, 53% of Americans say they oppose building a nuclear energy plant in their area, far less than the 71% opposed to data center construction. Since Gallup first asked the nuclear power plant question in 2001, the high point in opposition has been 63%.

It’s hard to overstate how unpopular this polling paints AI data centers. It’s just an absolute messaging and marketing disaster for the entire tech industry. Tellingly, the anti-AI-data-center sentiment is bipartisan:

Screenshot of Gallup AI polling for Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.

There are partisan differences, but only in slight degree. A savvy politician or party could grab this issue and carve out a broadly bipartisan anti-data-center, anti-AI message. US politics is so polarized in today’s era that the salience of this issue will not go unnoticed. The only thing the hyperscalers have on their side is money, but that fact is a significant factor in the general resentment toward the entire industry.

To that point, Ben Thompson suggests (in today’s subscriber-only Stratechery column) that the industry simply pay residents:

Instead, the most obvious solution is the most crass: simply start giving people money. If data centers are a resource for our AI future, then start paying people for that resource. If that data center up the road weren’t sold to my neighbors based on amorphous tax benefits that my local government may or may not spend appropriately, but rather were to result in a check in the mailbox every year, I suspect you could get a lot more people on board!

Just to put some numbers on this, the data center up the road was expected to be 1.6 GW, which could generate around $3 billion in annual operator revenue. DeForest, the village it was to be built in, has around 11,500 people. You could pay every person in DeForest $10,000 a year for 3.8% of annual revenue grossed by the data center — I bet that proposal would have been approved, and I bet that the operator could very easily pass those costs on to the actual data center users (it also highlights how relatively pathetic QTS’s $50 million commitment was).

I do get how ridiculous this sounds, but ridiculous is how we do things in America.

After mulling the idea for a bit this morning, I’d say it’s unusual, but not ridiculous. Money talks.

 ★ 

Farming in Ancient Lake Agassiz

Farm fields and roads are laid out in a repeating rectangular pattern in this snowy image.

Editor’s Note: Today’s story is the answer to the May Puzzler.

About 15,000 years ago, southeastern Manitoba sat beneath tens of meters of frigid water. Lake Agassiz—which once encompassed present-day Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipeg, and Lake of the Woods—covered an area larger than all of the Great Lakes combined. It formed in front of the retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet, which dammed rivers that otherwise might have drained into Hudson Bay, producing an expansive body of water 1,100 kilometers (700 miles) long by 300 kilometers wide that spanned parts of today’s Manitoba, Ontario, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Minnesota.

The lake began draining roughly 12,000 years ago, but its legacy remains visible across the region. In April 2026, an astronaut aboard the International Space Station snapped this photograph of farmland along the southern shore of Lake Winnipeg, where Lake Agassiz once deposited a thick, nearly flat bed of nutrient-rich silt and clay. Former lakebed areas like this one now support some of Canada’s most productive agricultural landscapes.

A grid-based land survey has also left its mark. The Dominion Land Survey, one of the world’s largest and most systematic surveying efforts, divided much of western Canada into one-square-mile sections after the Canadian government purchased Rupert’s Land from the Hudson’s Bay Company in 1869. The grid continues to define the layout of farm fields, roads, shelterbelts, and drainage channels.

When the photo was taken late in the afternoon on April 19, a layer of snow and ice covered the landscape. The brightest, whitest blocks appear to be snow-covered farmland or icy ponds, while the darker areas are forests, wetlands, or exposed ground with less uniform snow cover.

Wheat, barley, oats, and canola are among the crops often grown in the area. In the upper part of the image, cottages and lake houses are clustered around Gull Lake, a popular site for boating, fishing, and other water sports. Common fish species found in the lake include northern pike, walleye, and yellow perch.

Astronaut photograph ISS074-E-494130 was acquired on April 19, 2026, with a Nikon Z9 digital camera using a focal length of 560 millimeters. It is provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA Johnson Space Center. The image was taken by a member of the Expedition 74 crew. The image has been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. Story by Adam Voiland.

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‘John Appleseed’

Here’s a great take from last month re: the Cook/Ternus transition, from Om Malik:

When he took over from Steve Jobs in August 2011, Apple’s market capitalization was around $350 billion. As of this morning, it sits near $4 trillion. That is more than a 1,000 percent increase. Revenue went from $108 billion in fiscal 2011 to over $416 billion in fiscal 2025, almost four times bigger. Apple under Cook became the most valuable company in human history, multiple times over. It built Services into a $100-billion-a-year business.

Sure, Cook inherited the greatest product portfolio and the greatest brand in modern business. How many times have we seen people screw it up? He ran it with operational ruthlessness. He is no product visionary, and neither is Ternus. They are not Steve. Tim has run Apple for fifteen years, through a pandemic, two trade wars, a supply chain reordering, and the slow grinding shift from hardware-only to hardware-plus-services-plus-silicon. Most importantly, he didn’t mess it up.

Services, as a whole, is now as big a business for Apple as the entirety of the company was when Cook took the helm. And “not screwing it up” is an enormous accomplishment. Success is always precarious. Keeping a good thing going is inordinately difficult. It only looks easy compared to getting the good thing off the ground in the first place.

 ★ 

Define ‘Boom’ Please

While I’m linking to pieces on Apple’s CEO transition, here’s an annoying tidbit from Tripp Mickle and Karl Russell’s piece for The New York Times, under the headline “Tim Cook Was Very, Very Good at Making Money” (gift link):

Even though it has largely missed out on the artificial intelligence boom now lifting the sales of its technology peers, the company’s profits and stock value continue to grow.

Which peers have had their “sales lifted” by AI? There’s Nvidia (now the most valuable company in the world). But Apple doesn’t compete directly with Nvidia. What makes Apple different from its peer companies isn’t that the others are profiting from AI while Apple is not, but rather that Apple, seemingly alone, is not funnelling its free cash flow to Nvidia to build out massive AI datacenters.

Apple might wind up missing out on something huge as a result of its decision to stay out of this race. But it’s nonsense to say they’ve already missed out on a boom. To date it’s a money pit.

 ★ 

Ted Turner’s Small Apartment Above the Former CNN Center

Simultaneously audacious and humble, a combination that epitomizes Ted Turner’s entire life. (Shades, too, of Walt Disney’s apartment above the fire department at Disneyland.)

 ★ 

‘AI, “Humanity”, and Dr. Manhattan Syndrome’

Jim Prosser, back in February:

Let me be clear about causation, because the AI parallel only works if we’re honest about it. The communications failures didn’t kill nuclear power. The disasters did. But two decades of talking over the public meant the industry had built precisely zero reservoir of human-scale trust to draw on when the real crises hit. Nuclear pioneer Alvin Weinberg admitted in 1976 (three years before Three Mile Island) that “the public perception and acceptance of nuclear energy appears to be the question that we missed rather badly.” After TMI and Chernobyl confirmed the public’s worst suspicions, over a hundred planned U.S. reactors were cancelled.

The entire essay is very good, quite thought provoking. But it really shines in drawing the parallels to nuclear power a generation ago, and the need to communicate the benefits to ordinary people in ways that they actually care about. Regarding OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman:

But think about what the people behind those numbers are actually worried about. They’re not anxious about AI in the abstract, per se, but its implications. They’re anxious about their job, their kid’s homework, their creative work getting scraped without permission, their privacy. Human-scale concerns that are specific, personal, and grounded in the daily texture of individual lives.

And Brockman’s response to this very specific, very human anxiety is to ... float further up into the philosophical stratosphere while writing a mega-checks to a partisan PAC and explaining it in the language of civilizational mission. It’s like a doctor hearing a patient who says, “My knee hurts,” who then delivers a lecture on the elegance of the musculoskeletal system. The patient doesn’t need you to appreciate the beauty of human biology. They need you to look at their damn knee.

 ★ 

The Alaska Permanent Fund as Loose Precedent for AI Data Center ‘UBI’ Payments

Wikipedia:

The Alaska Permanent Fund (APF) is a constitutionally established permanent fund and sovereign wealth fund managed by a state-owned corporation, the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation (APFC). It was established in Alaska in 1976 by Article 9, Section 15 of the Alaska State Constitution under Governor Jay Hammond and Attorney General Avrum Gross. [...] As of 2019, the fund was worth approximately $64 billion that has been funded by oil and mining revenues and has paid out an average of approximately $1,600 annually per resident (adjusted to 2019 dollars). The main use for the fund’s revenue has been to pay out the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD), which many authors portray as the only example of a basic income in practice. [...]

The PFD is a Basic Income in the form of a resource dividend. Some researchers argue, “It has helped Alaska attain the highest economic equality of any state in the United States... And, seemingly unnoticed, it has provided unconditional cash assistance to needy Alaskans at a time when most states have scaled back aid and increased conditionality.”

Alaska is not exactly a left-wing state. Again, money talks.

 ★ 

[Sponsor] WorkOS: Agents Need Context. Ship the Integrations That Give It to Them.

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Give your agent context →

 ★ 

Jury Rejects Elon Musk’s Claim Against Sam Altman in Unanimous Verdict

Cade Metz and Mike Isaac, reporting for The New York Times (gift link):

A nine-person jury found that Elon Musk did not bring his lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman until after the expiration of the three-year statute of limitations.

Mr. Musk filed his suit against the $730 billion artificial intelligence start-up in the summer of 2024, but the jury found that he was aware of the behavior discussed in his complaint against OpenAI as far back as 2021.

This update quoting Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers’s “poetic” jury instructions is just lovely:

“A jury reflects the attitudes and mores of the community from which it is drawn,” she said, paraphrasing another judge. “It lives only for the day and does justice according to its limits. The group of jurors who are drawn to hear a case make a decision and then melt away. It is not present the next day to be criticized. It is the one governmental agency that has no ambition. It is as human as the people who make it up.”

 ★ 

Keep Telling the Oligarchs They Suck

The Cross Section is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is not just an incredibly rich guy, with a net worth standing at a tidy $43.6 billion. He also fancies himself a thought leader, eager to share his insights on the critical challenges of our age. In particular, he worries about the negative effects of Americans’ skepticism about artificial intelligence. As he wrote in a recent New York Times op-ed, “It’s paramount that more people outside Silicon Valley feel the beneficial impact of A.I. on their lives.”

So when he was invited to give the commencement address at the University of Arizona this year, he probably thought this was a great opportunity to explain to young people how important it is for them to be ready to navigate this brave new world, in which nothing they do will be untouched by the technological revolution that has already begun. “That really made me think,” they’d say to each other afterward. “I will take Eric Schmidt’s wise words with me as I embark on my career.”

But that’s not what happened. Instead, the students greeted his rather banal comments on AI with a round of lusty jeers. The same thing happened at other universities when commencement speakers from the business world delivered similar messages about how we’re embarking on “the next Industrial Revolution” and the kids had better adapt whether they like it or not:

I want to congratulate the students at these universities for showing what they actually think about this message, and it’s not because the business titans are completely wrong. There will be dramatic changes because of AI, and people working in a wide variety of industries will have to adapt. But sometimes, when you find yourself in the company of extremely rich and powerful people, there’s a great deal of value in taking a big breath, cupping your hands around your mouth, and shouting “YOU SUCK!”

One thing social media is good for

While social media is a virus that spread across the globe and made our entire existence worse in a remarkably short amount of time, it also allows ordinary people to tell those with great power that they suck. Unfortunately, doing so often has the effect of cooking the brains of those powerful people to an even greater degree than their isolated existences already do.

Take Mark Andreessen, one of the most important figures in Silicon Valley and leader of the firm Andreessen Horowitz, also known as a16z. A year ago, Andreessen shared with podcaster Lex Fridman why dinner parties and text chats among Valley power brokers are so liberating:

“At least in the last decade, those are like the happiest moments of everybody’s lives,” Andreessen said. “Everybody’s just ecstatic, because they’re just like, ‘I don’t have to worry about getting yelled at and shamed for every third sentence that comes out of my mouth.’”

Who precisely is yelling at Marc Andreessen? Someone on his household staff? His employees at a16z? The aspiring tech bros desperate for him to fund their startups? A server at the Michelin-starred restaurant where he ate dinner last night?

The answer is that there is no one in Andreessen’s actual life who would dare treat him with anything but obsequious deference. No, it’s online where Andreessen is hounded and oppressed.

Under the totalitarian regime that prevailed before Elon Musk bought Twitter, Andreessen explained, group chats were “the equivalent of samizdat,” where for a brief fleeting moment, billionaires could whisper to one another in hushed tones. True, the punishment for being caught uttering forbidden truths in more public forums was not execution or banishment to the gulag, but having a bunch of peasants on social media call you an asshole. Isn’t that just as bad, though? Surely if one of those poor dissidents starving in a Siberian prison camp in 1952 could have looked into the future, they would have said, “My suffering is great, but at least I don’t have to endure getting ratioed on Twitter.”

The horror of being called an asshole pushed Andreessen to become an even more enthusiastic ally of President Trump than he was already becoming. This year, a16z is sinking more money into the midterm elections than any other organization or person, $115 million so far to support Republican candidates who will advocate minimal regulation of AI and crypto (in which the firm is heavily invested).

Even in Silicon Valley, most of the elite don’t spend their time tweeting and going on podcasts. But enough of them do that we have a good window into the culture and thinking of the wealthiest and most powerful business leaders of our day. And what comes through loud and clear is that they’re appalled that we aren’t more thankful for the technologies they are bestowing upon us. They take our money and mine our lives for data, but don’t we realize how glorious the future they’re creating for us will be? Where’s the gratitude?

What they don’t seem to appreciate is that most of the ways people are currently experiencing AI are invasive, threatening, or just stupid and frustrating. For instance, Taco Bell is experimenting with an AI-driven menu board that will “dynamically change the layout, content, and visuals on a car-by-car basis.” You thought you just wanted a menu that was easy to read and understand, but have you considered how great it would be if the AI made judgments about what kind of person you are based on the car you’re driving, then slapped a bunch of crappy graphics on the menu based on some stereotypes it picked up from trawling the internet? Awesome!

When oligarchs like Eric Schmidt tell young people that their lives are going to be shaped by AI whether they like it or not, it’s that kind of crap the young people think of, not the possibility that one day AI will devise a cure for cancer. Perhaps the utopian version of AI will come to pass, but right now that AI future is hypothetical, while the slop is our reality today.

Nobody likes being criticized, and the more highly you think of yourself the less you like it — and while Silicon Valley billionaires are not all narcissistic sociopaths, lots of them are. We have many means of pushing back at them — electing leaders who approach technology with a healthy skepticism and are willing to regulate it to protect the public, organizing in our communities (as people are doing against data center construction), choosing not to patronize companies that try to jam AI down our throats when we don’t want it. But when you have the chance, it doesn’t hurt to shout “YOU SUCK!” at the wealthy and powerful. They’ve certainly earned it.

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What's Easy Now? What's Hard Now?

What’s Easy Now? What’s Hard Now?

This is the fourth in a series about how AI is changing software development, after It’s time to be right., What about juniors?, and My heuristics are wrong. What now?. It stands alone, but if you found this interesting you may also find those interesting.

I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about the shape of the capabilities of coding agents. What they’re good at now, what they’re going to be good at. What they’re bad at now, how much of that is inherent and how much is transient. This is worth thinking about, because it’s the most important question shaping the future of software, and of software engineering. I don’t pretend to have an answer, but am coming to a conclusion that may be deeply counter-intuitive.

Coding agents are becoming very good indeed, and can build meaningful and correct software very quickly and at transformatively low cost. They have super-human abilities on some coding tasks. Of course, computer systems have had super human abilities for at least 85 years1. I think we’re going to find, as we have over those nine decades, that this new technology we’re building is vastly super-human in some areas2, and not nearly as capable as humans in others.

Which raises the important question of how, and why.

Feedback is powerful

Early on in my EE education, one of my professors drew a simple circuit on the board that’s been stuck in my mind ever since. It looked like this3:

Apply a voltage on the left, and on the right you get the square root of that voltage4. The two components are an opamp and an analog multiplier IC (e.g. the deeply obsolete MC1495). This simple circuit encapsulates possibly the most important idea in electrical engineering: feedback is uniquely powerful. Maybe unreasonably powerful. It’s the idea that makes nearly every electronic device work, it keeps planes in the sky, and stops your oven from burning your dinner.

Components inside feedback loops can be made to behave significantly differently from their basic open loop behavior. Excellent outputs can be extracted from poor components. Multipliers can become square rooters. Feedback changes everything.

AI agents are just feedback loops. They’re built around a component with useful, but flawed, open loop behavior (an LLM), and use feedback to make that component able to do things that it’s not able to do without feedback. This is the basic idea behind the transformation that has happened in developer tooling in the last two years or so: a move from open loop AI (the smart autocomplete mode in IDEs) to agents. The moving of the feedback from the human developer (build, test, go back to IDE), into the agent itself (build, test, iterate).

Much of the conversation about long-term coding agent capabilities is about open loop model behavior. But that’s only half the picture. I may even stretch to saying it’s the less important half of the picture. Feedback is the thing that’s going to drive long-term capabilities.

The feedback loop hypothesis

In the long term, coding agents will find tasks with effective feedback ‘easy’, and tasks without effective feedback ‘hard’. The availability of accurate feedback will determine the limits on their capabilities.

On one hand, we should see this as uncontroversial. Anybody who has built code with agents knows that good error messages help keep agents unstuck. We’re seeing how tools like Rust guide agents towards writing correct code by providing explicit and immediate feedback about incorrectness of some kinds. We’re seeing agents be great at performance work, where good benchmarks exist. We’re seeing tools like property-based testing be uniquely valuable. We’re also seeing that agents aren’t great at architecture (where feedback tends to be of the ‘I know it when I see it’ kind), or writing concurrent programs (where feedback tends to be of the ‘it silently corrupted data at runtime’ kind).

But let’s look forward a little bit, and compare two problems:

  • Building a delightful ergonomic photo editing website.
  • Building a correct high-performance database storage engine5.

For open-loop models, the former is easier than the latter. At least in that you’ll get closer to real success with a pure vibe coding workflow, and much closer to success on the former after a single shot. The feedback loop hypothesis, however, makes me think that the latter is actually the easier long-term problem.

To understand why, consider their feedback loops. The website’s feedback loop, beyond maybe some automation that tests if the buttons do what they should, requires a human in the loop. It needs to be easy to use for humans, and humans are notoriously slow, squishy, and inconsistent feedback providers. The latter, however, has a rather simple specification, including the API, safety properties, and liveness properties. With the right tools in the feedback loop, iteration towards success requires no humans.

What does it mean?

I think this is different from the intuition many people have about coding agents. They see websites and UIs as ‘easy’ (see the SaaSpocalypse), and system software as ‘hard’. The feedback loop hypothesis says that this is backwards. That, in fact, we’re going to find that SaaS is ‘hard’ and system software is ‘easy’.

This is going to raise the importance of specification (the writing down of what good looks like to drive the feedback loop), and of tools that apply that specification to code. Compile-time tools like Rust, Hydro, and Verus. Modelling-time tools like TLA+ and P. Specification tools like Kiro’s spec analyzer. Testing tools, simulators, mocks, etc.

The future of software development is building these feedback loops. Many hard problems remain.

Footnotes

  1. Dating back to the work of folks like Marian Rejewski in the 1930s.
  2. The MacBook on my desk can add 64 bit numbers about something like 100,000,000,000 times faster than I can.
  3. Drawn with CircuitLab, and adapted from this Electronics StackExchange Answer. In reality, a few more passive components are needed.
  4. If you’re not familiar with this stuff, here’s an intuition for how this works. The opamp (the triangle) tries to adjust its output (on the right) so the two inputs are the same. So if you take the output, and multiply it by itself, then feed it into one of the inputs, it’ll set the output to the square root of the input. If you are familiar with this stuff, I apologize deeply for that explanation.
  5. I mean something on the scale of, say, RocksDB or InnoDB, not something on the scale of Aurora DSQL or even PostgreSQL. I think these large-scale distributed systems are going to be harder to hill climb to, at least for the future I can see.

Monday 18 May 1663

Up and after taking leave of Sir W. Batten, who is gone this day towards Portsmouth (to little purpose, God knows) upon his survey, I home and spent the morning at dancing; at noon Creed dined with us and Mr. Deane of Woolwich, and so after dinner came Mr. Howe, who however had enough for his dinner, and so, having done, by coach to Westminster, she to Mrs. Clerke and I to St. James’s, where the Duke being gone down by water to-day with the King I went thence to my Lord Sandwich’s lodgings, where Mr. Howe and I walked a while, and going towards Whitehall through the garden Dr. Clerk and Creed called me across the bowling green, and so I went thither and after a stay went up to Mrs. Clerke who was dressing herself to go abroad with my wife. But, Lord! in what a poor condition her best chamber is, and things about her, for all the outside and show that she makes, but I found her just such a one as Mrs. Pierce, contrary to my expectation, so much that I am sick and sorry to see it.

Thence for an hour Creed and I walked to White Hall, and into the Park, seeing the Queen and Maids of Honour passing through the house going to the Park. But above all, Mrs. Stuart is a fine woman, and they say now a common mistress to the King,1 as my Lady Castlemaine is; which is a great pity. Thence taking a coach to Mrs. Clerke’s, took her, and my wife, and Ashwell, and a Frenchman, a kinsman of hers, to the Park, where we saw many fine faces, and one exceeding handsome, in a white dress over her head, with many others very beautiful. Staying there till past eight at night, I carried Mrs. Clerke and her Frenchman, who sings well, home, and thence home ourselves, talking much of what we had observed to-day of the poor household stuff of Mrs. Clerke and mere show and flutter that she makes in the world; and pleasing myself in my own house and manner of living more than ever I did by seeing how much better and more substantially I live than others do.

So to supper and bed.

Footnotes

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Tomorrow.io adds $35 million to DeepSky funding round

Weather intelligence provider Tomorrow.io has added $35 million to its latest funding round, bringing the total to $210 million to accelerate development of a next-generation constellation for gathering atmospheric data.

The post Tomorrow.io adds $35 million to DeepSky funding round appeared first on SpaceNews.

House bill restores funding for TraCSS

The TraCSS logo. Credit: NOAA

A House appropriations bill would reverse plans by the administration to stop development of a civil space traffic management system.

The post House bill restores funding for TraCSS appeared first on SpaceNews.

New CSF Report Sees Up To 7,000+ Satellites Launched Annually By Mid 2030’s, Highlights The Challenges With US Launch Infrastructure

Commercial Space Federation 20th anniversary logo

WASHINGTON, D.C., May 18, 2026 — The Commercial Space Federation (CSF), in partnership with Rational Futures (RF), announced the release of SCRUBBED: America’s Launch Capacity Challenge, a data-driven assessment of potential […]

The post New CSF Report Sees Up To 7,000+ Satellites Launched Annually By Mid 2030’s, Highlights The Challenges With US Launch Infrastructure appeared first on SpaceNews.

The next war will be won — or lost — in orbit

We in the West have learned many things from the conflict in Ukraine. Four years on from its full-scale invasion — the war in fact having started in 2014 — […]

The post The next war will be won — or lost — in orbit appeared first on SpaceNews.

Zenk Space raises $26 million, targets June debut launch

A rocket first stage stands vertically on a red offshore launch platform labeled ‘HOS-1’ as its engines fire, sending a bright flame and heavy smoke plume across the surrounding sea.

China’s Zenk Space has secured 180 million yuan ahead of the planned June debut of its Zhihang-1 kerolox rocket, the company's first orbital launch attempt.

The post Zenk Space raises $26 million, targets June debut launch  appeared first on SpaceNews.

Where expat escapees from Dubai end up

Will they ever return?

How much is Donald Trump costing America’s economy?Â

We calculate the drag on growth from fitful presidential policymaking

European imaging companies step in to fill warzone gap

MILAN – As U.S. satellite imagery companies have pulled back from sharing visuals of Iran and the broader area around the Gulf conflict, European Earth-observation firms are moving to fill […]

The post European imaging companies step in to fill warzone gap appeared first on SpaceNews.

Four NASA payloads to fly on Astrolab’s first lunar rover

FLIP

Astrolab’s first lunar rover will carry four NASA payloads on a mission planned to launch later this year.

The post Four NASA payloads to fly on Astrolab’s first lunar rover appeared first on SpaceNews.

Inside Golden Dome’s push to court commercial tech firms and investors

Behind the classified architecture is a struggle over affordability, industrial scale and whether commercial space economics can work for national defense

The post Inside Golden Dome’s push to court commercial tech firms and investors appeared first on SpaceNews.

Zero-Day Exploit Against Windows BitLocker

It’s nasty, but it requires physical access to the computer:

The exploit, named YellowKey, was published earlier this week by a researcher who goes by the alias Nightmare-Eclipse. It reliably bypasses default Windows 11 deployments of BitLocker, the full-volume encryption protection Microsoft provides to make disk contents off-limits to anyone without the decryption key, which is stored in a secured piece of hardware known as a trusted platform module (TPM). BitLocker is a mandatory protection for many organizations, including those that contract with governments.

Slashdot thread. And here’s Nightmare-Eclipse’s GitHub account.

Links 5/18/26

Links for you. Science:

The invisible force making food less nutritious
This Personality Trait Makes Dreams More Bizarre, Scientists Discover
Scientists Investigated a Frequency Linked to ‘Paranormal’ Encounters. The Results Were Unsettling.
The Paradox of Medical AI Implementation
Road infrastructure and traffic affect community members’ mental health, study finds
One night a year, humans command this march of frogs and salamanders
Are blue zones real? Answering that question is harder than ever

Other:

Does John Roberts’ Whites-Only Childhood Home Explain the Supreme Court’s Callais Ruling? (a rare reversal of Betteridge’s Law; excellent)
The simple statistical error Republican Supreme Court justices used to gut the VRA
You Can’t Build Useful Alliances With Fascists, Dumbass
Wyoming lawmakers use pro-natalist arguments to justify proposed new partial abortion ban (women are first and foremost breeders is now GOP policy)
Will John Fetterman Go Full Benedict Arnold?
RFK Jr. clears path for minors’ use of tanning beds, much to the dismay of dermatologists
VA conducted internal investigations into employees who attended vigil for Alex Pretti
Trump family’s love affair with crypto bro ends in dueling lawsuits
Unhoused DC residents sometimes prefer living outside over staying in shelters. Here’s why
Mount Pleasant Restaurants Lost Their Streateries. Now They’re Banding Together to Bring Them Back.
East Wing debris dumped at East Potomac Golf Course has toxic metals, NPS says
Indiana Primary Results Prove It: The GOP Is Still a Trump Cult
FBI probing leaks to journalist who wrote explosive article on Kash Patel, sources say
Ward 3’s highly engaged voters could decide D.C.’s mayoral election. Which contender will win them over?
Presidential fight club
Democrats retain control of Michigan senate with ‘overperformance’ in special election
Kash Patel’s Personalized Bourbon Stash
John Roberts Believes in an America That Doesn’t Exist
FOIA data reveals patterns of car ownership in DC (“Thirty-seven percent of all vehicles in this dataset, or 43,919 motor vehicles, are registered at addresses within a 10-minute walk (800 meters) of a metro station.”)
D.C. spent $67 million cleaning up after January’s snowstorm
Campaign staffers tell NPR they make ‘thousands’ betting on their own candidates
A Dangerous New Attack on Press Freedom: According to MS NOW, the FBI has launched an investigation into an Atlantic reporter.
Are Democrats Warming to Reforming the Supreme Court?
John Roberts Wants You To Stop Believing Your Own Eyes
Matt Taibbi filed a Trumpian, free speech-chilling lawsuit against me. A judge just threw it out
Oliver Larkin vs. the Epstein State. Hasan Piker’s new favorite candidate was gaining surprising traction challenging self-described ‘Ron DeSantis Democrat’ Jared Moskowitz. Then DeSantis vaporized the district.
Working Hard Or Hardly Working
Unstitching America. No private company is logistically capable of delivering the mail. So what does privatization of the US Postal Service mean?
The Racetracks We Call Streets. Roadways that were designed to move commuters at breakneck speed are dangerous and hamper business. Starting with a hard look at one-way streets, cities are trying to turn their thoroughfares back into something more than speedways.
MAGA Rep Accused of Brutally Beating GOP Senator’s Daughter

The Deciding Vote on HHS Secretary Kennedy’s Nomination, Sen. Cassidy, Loses His Republican Party

A couple of lessons from Republican Senator Bill Cassidy’s primary loss in Louisiana, which should have been self-evident by now. The first lesson is unless you are completely loyal, Trump will turn on you. Second, once you break with Trump, within the Republican Party, you are almost always politically dead, especially if your break was an attempt to moderate. You become tagged as a RINO (Republican in name only), and you cannot come back from that.

Anyway, Cassidy put himself in the worst of both camps by voting for Kennedy, but opposing Trump in other ways–and to Cassidy’s credit, he did vote to impeach Trump (Cassidy must be really pissed at McConnell right now for not pushing harder on impeachment).

The final lesson is for Democrats: there are no Republican moderates left. You cannot compromise with the Republican Party as currently constituted–it is a fascist, white Christian supremacist party that is, as fascist formations are, utterly loyal to their leader, Trump, regardless of what some of its elected officials tell you in private or secretly believe.

The End of the Line … Corrupt Court Edition

The more I speak with people both in the political world and in what I’ve called the legal academic-judicial nexus, the more I see just what a sea change is underway about Court reform. It’s come in successive waves: Dobbs, the immunity decision, Callais. There are various models of reform. But I don’t know anyone who has seriously considered the matter who thinks that you can have serious reform without expanding the Court. In these conversations, a few people have raised the question: what if the Court rules that a Court expansion law is itself unconstitutional? To put it slightly differently, what if the Court decides that the limits on its authority the Constitution creates, the paths for accountability it creates, are themselves unconstitutional.

This is question that is once absurd but also in a certain specific way important to prepare for.

The key, overriding and singular point is that the Court has zero jurisdiction over the number of judges who serve on it. The Court might as well decided that going forward it will appoint members of the Court itself. The Constitution clearly and explicitly gives Congress the power to choose the number of Justices who will serve on the Supreme Court. Congress first chose that there would be six. It then expanded it to 7, 9 and finally ten before changing it back to 9. The very existence of the Court as currently constituted, that it is nine Justices rather than three or one hundred, is the product of the Congress’s power which this scenario would have the Court questioning. That’s the simple answer. The Court lacks any jurisdiction.

That’s where I left the question the first few times it was raised to me. But of course this Supreme Court is steeped in the deepest anti-constitutional corruption and abuses of power imaginable. We couldn’t be surprised if this Court did manufacture new text in the Constitution that allowed its current members to appoint their own successors. And it would be folly to assume they might not try to review such a law, despite lacking any power to do so. For this Court the fact that it’s laughable, admittedly, doesn’t mean much.

The answer is to make clear in advance that the law is fully un-reviewable and not even entertain the discussion. As I said, if the Court decided it could appoint its own members no one should entertain that as a serious claim. This is identical. The Constitution gives Congress this power clearly and explicitly. The Court can’t review the legitimacy of the basis of its own existence. That is simply a matter of logical principles.

The answer is to pass the law (with a trifecta), nominate and confirm the justices (with the same trifecta) and send them over to the building. If Roberts and Alito want to barricade themselves in the building, sure, why not. They’re coming. Get used to it. Congress and everyone involved would have to make clear in advance that the whole question will not be entertained and that the matter will be settled solely and entirely with the legitimate power of Congress, in concert with the assent of the president. The new justices will show up up at the building. Pull up new chairs at the table or they’ll bring their own. Either way, end of story.

If anything the whole episode would be a salutary demonstration of the Court’s illegal conduct. The attempt would be illegal, unconstitutional and illegitimate and thus a good illustration of the Court’s corruption. It doesn’t count. Don’t engage with it. Pass the law and nominate the judges and send them over.

Particle Census

Remember, your answers to the physics census are confidential; we will not be issuing Pauli exclusion principle citations.

Monday assorted links

1. New newsletter: AI and agentic coding, filtered for economists.

2. Can AI replace Richard Hanania?

3. Predictions for Singapore.

4. Four ways of being seen, one of which is imaginary.

5. HOPE, preview of forthcoming Korean movie.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Who is losing out in marriage market competition?

Over the past half-century, U.S. four-year colleges have shifted from enrolling mostly men to enrolling mostly women, while the economic position of non-college men has weakened markedly. We examine how these changes correspond with the evolving structure of marriage markets across cohorts and places. As college men have become increasingly scarce, college women have maintained stable marriage rates by marrying high-earning non-college men. This shift—combined with the broader economic decline of non-college men—has sharply reduced the pool of economically stable partners available to non-college women: the share of non-college men who earn above the national median and are not married to college women has fallen by more than 50%. Cross-area evidence shows that education gaps in marriage are smaller where non-college men face lower rates of joblessness and incarceration. Taken together, the evidence suggests that deteriorating outcomes for men have primarily undermined the marriage prospects of non-college women.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Clara Chambers, Benjamin Goldman & Joseph Winkelmann.

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What Your Living Room Is Doing to Your Mind in 2026

Most people have had the experience of walking into a room and feeling, almost before registering anything specific, that they want to be there. The air seems easier to breathe. The shoulders loosen slightly. Whatever was pressing on the mind a moment before becomes, for a little while, quieter. This is not a coincidence, and it is not simply a matter of taste. The physical environment has a direct and measurable effect on mood, on the quality of attention, and on the body’s capacity to rest. Interior design, at its best, is the deliberate management of that effect.

Design in 2026 Is About Experience, Not Just Appearance

This understanding has been reshaping professional design practice for some time, but 2026 represents something of a turning point in how widely it is now accepted. The thinking shared by the American Society of Interior Designers and their industry specialists, who highlighted in their 2026 Trends Outlook how design has moved well beyond aesthetics  into the territory of experience, emotion, and everyday wellbeing, points clearly to a collective move away from environments optimised for visual impact toward environments that perform at the level of daily lived experience. How a room looks when photographed matters less than how it functions for the person spending an ordinary Wednesday inside it.

Why Textiles Matter More Than Any Other Surface

Central to this shift is the renewed attention being paid to materials and, within that, to textiles. The surfaces we touch most often carry a particular weight in shaping how a space registers emotionally. Hard, cold, or slippery surfaces send information to the nervous system that is subtly activating rather than settling. Soft, warm, and textured surfaces tend to do the opposite. The hand confirms what the eye suspects, and that confirmation is either reassuring or faintly unsettling. In a room where the dominant surfaces are natural woven textiles, the accumulation of reassurance over time is not trivial. It changes the baseline experience of being in the space.

Colour Palettes and the Nervous System

Colour works in related ways. The palette of a room determines the emotional register from which every experience inside it is interpreted. Rooms built around high-contrast, high-saturation combinations are energising, which can serve certain purposes well. Rooms built around quieter, more muted palettes drawn from natural tones, soft linens, warm off-whites, pale clays, and earthy greens, create the opposite condition. They do not compete with the occupant’s internal state. They offer a kind of visual rest, a pause in the constant processing of demanding stimuli that characterises most of modern life outside the home. The living room, in particular, benefits most from this quieter palette because it is the space most associated with recovery and transition.

The Sofa as the Room’s Emotional Foundation

The sofa anchors all of this. It is the most heavily used piece of furniture in the room, the surface that most directly mediates between the human body and the interior. Its fabric determines texture at the point of most consistent contact. Its colour contributes more than any other single element to the room’s tonal identity, simply because of its scale. A sofa covered in a soft, natural-toned textile shifts the character of a room more efficiently and more permanently than almost any other single change. And because the cover is what the body actually encounters, not the frame beneath it, getting the fabric right is, in a literal sense, getting the experience right.

Choosing Covers That Let a Room Work Properly

The case for washable, interchangeable slipcovers extends beyond practicality, though practicality is genuinely important. A cover that can be removed and laundered removes a persistent low-level anxiety from the room. The sofa becomes fully available for use rather than available only under certain conditions. For those updating an Ektorp, exploring the range of Ektorp sofa slipcovers  available from specialist suppliers can offer both the material quality and the tonal range that makes this kind of ease genuinely achievable. A room you are managing is not a room you are resting in.

What Natural Fibres Bring to a Room

Natural fibres add a further dimension that synthetic alternatives rarely replicate. Cotton and linen breathe, releasing and absorbing moisture with changes in temperature and humidity. This gives them a slight responsiveness to the environment that registers, even if unconsciously, as aliveness. A room furnished in natural textiles feels inhabited in a way that a room furnished in smooth, static synthetics does not, regardless of how clean or well-designed the latter may be. The aliveness comes partly from the slight irregularities in weave and tone that natural fibres carry, the way they absorb rather than reflect light, and the way they change character over time, softening and settling into the room rather than remaining rigidly identical to their original state.

Scale and the Dominant Surface

Scale matters in ways that are often underestimated. The sofa is typically the largest soft surface in a living room, and its tonal contribution is therefore proportionally dominant. If the sofa is covered in a warm linen or a pale earthy cotton, the room reads warm and soft even if every other surface is hard. If the sofa is covered in a cool or visually busy fabric, the room carries a degree of tension regardless of how carefully everything else has been considered. Designers working in the wellbeing-oriented direction that defines 2026 tend to treat the sofa covering as the first decision rather than the last one, establishing the tonal and textural ground from which all other choices are made.

Practical Decisions and Psychological Outcomes

The practical and the psychological are not as separate as design discussion sometimes implies. The decision to use a washable cover is not merely a concession to reality. It is a statement about how the room is intended to function. A room that can be freely used, that does not require its occupants to modify their behaviour in deference to the upholstery, is a room that is genuinely oriented toward the people inside it rather than toward its own appearance. This orientation is precisely what the current design moment is moving toward. The vocabulary is different, whether described as comfort-first design, wellbeing interiors, or lived-in spaces, but the underlying intention is the same: the room should serve the person, not the other way around.

How Light and Fabric Work Together Through the Day

Light interacts with fabric in ways that compound over the course of a day. A pale linen sofa in the morning light of a north-facing room looks one thing, and in the warm lamp light of an evening it looks noticeably different. This responsiveness is part of what makes a room feel animate and present rather than static and staged. The room changes with the day without any intervention, creating a continuous but low-key sensory variation that prevents the kind of visual fatigue that comes from environments that look identical regardless of time or conditions. Natural fabrics are particularly good at this because their slight textural irregularities catch light at different angles, creating subtle variation that the eye reads as depth rather than flatness.

Where to Begin When Changing a Room

The question of how to begin is often simpler than anticipated. The sofa is the right place to start because the effect is immediate and the scale of the change is large. A room in which the dominant piece of upholstered furniture has been covered in a well-chosen natural textile in a tone that settles rather than activates is already, in the most important respects, a room oriented toward its occupants. From that foundation, every other choice, lighting, flooring, the arrangement of smaller textiles, the presence or absence of natural elements, becomes easier because the emotional register has already been established. The room already knows, in the most practical sense of the word, what it wants to be.

The Living Room as a Space That Works for You

In 2026, the language used around interior design is increasingly the language of experience rather than appearance. Warm. Grounded. Restorative. These are the words professionals are using to describe what spaces are expected to do, and they are words that describe states of being rather than visual qualities. The shift is meaningful because it reflects a genuine change in what people need from their homes. The living room has always been the room most associated with recovery and with the transition between the demands of the outside world and the replenishment available at home. Getting that room right, in the sense that matters most, means understanding what the room is actually doing to the people inside it, and making deliberate choices in response.

Photo: Curtis Adams via Pexels


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Did Artemis II break through? Registrations at Space Camp double afterward.

When he was 12 years old, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman attended the weeklong "Aviation Challenge" program at Space Camp in Huntsville, Alabama.

"For the first time, I got behind the controls of an airplane when I attended Aviation Challenge," Isaacman said on Friday evening during an event at the US Space & Rocket Center. "I became a pilot because I thought that was the closest I would ever get to the stars."

Decades later, after founding a successful online payments company and flying to space twice as a private citizen aboard SpaceX's Crew Dragon, Isaacman has returned to Space Camp in Alabama on multiple occasions to meet with participants and share a bit of the awe he experienced as a kid. In 2022, a year after the first of these flights, Inspiration4, Isaacman donated $10 million to kick off a Space Camp expansion.

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The US space enterprise is desperately waiting for Starship—will it finally deliver?

These days, one would be forgiven for forgetting that SpaceX is, at its core, a rocket company.

Consider the company's mega deals over the last year. SpaceX paid $17 billion—more than it has spent developing every one of its rockets—to EchoStar for wireless spectrum to boost its Starlink network. It revealed plans to launch 1 million orbital data centers. SpaceX merged with xAI in a deal that valued Elon Musk's artificial intelligence firm at $250 billion, and it announced plans to become a major computer chip manufacturer. And earlier this month, SpaceX sold an enormous amount of ground-based compute to Anthropic.

As a result of all this activity, an impending IPO will value the company at something like $1.5 or $2 trillion. That's trillion, with a t.

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Kidneys and Moral Economics in the Financial Times

I spoke about economics with Keynes (Soumaya) in the FT:

Nobel laureate Al Roth and the economics of organ sales  
 "The economist Alvin Roth been talking about kidneys since at least 2003, noting time and again that kidneys are in short supply, waiting lists are growing longer, and people are dying as a result.
 

"So why is Roth — who appears on this week’s episode of the Economics Show podcast — still banging on about kidneys? Well, because all of those things are still getting worse."

Here is the podcast:

FT Podcast  The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes. Should economics have fewer taboos? With Alvin Roth.   The Nobel laureate on the lines society draws around what can be bought and sold  

and here is the transcript:

Transcript: Should economics have fewer taboos? With Alvin Roth
Soumaya Keynes speaks to Alvin Roth, Nobel laureate and author of ‘Moral Economics’

"    Soumaya Keynes
So we always start this show with a silly question. So, on a scale of one to 10, how relaxed are you about marketisation? So 10, you’re extremely relaxed about having transactions in literally anything, and maybe five is the average person.

Alvin Roth
So I’m probably a 7.5, maybe 7.52."

 
 




 

How death came to Earth

Illustration of a stylised sun and moon with human faces above a field of stars with a patterned background.

Why must humans die? According to an ancient Indian folktale, death first came to Earth through an ill-fated love affair

- by Aeon Video

Watch on Aeon

Mathematics is out there

Abstract digital illustration of two swirling purple energy forms with a dark blue backdrop.

Sergiu Klainerman spent years proving that black holes won’t fly apart; and arguing that maths is not a human invention

- by Steve Nadis

Read on Aeon

What else is special about southeastern Michigan? (from my email)

Thanks for swinging by Southeastern Michigan. He are two things other things that this area continues to produce and export at scale that don’t get as much notice:

Mortgages – The two largest residential mortgage lenders are located in Detroit: United Wholesale Mortgage ($164B of mortgage originations for 2025) and Rocket Mortgages ($113B). It’s a fragmented industry, but to give you a sense of their comparative scale, Chase is #3 lender @ $66B in originations. Detroit continues to be the home of financial services for many Americans’ largest purchase.

Food – Michigan, not NY or Italy, is responsible for the scaling of pizza. Domino’s, Little Caesar’s, and Jet’s were all founded in Southeastern Michigan. Domino’s is the largest pizza company in the world, and in many global markets, Domino’s defines “pizza.” For instance, Domino’s market share of pizza in the UK is over 50%. So, the UK has adopted Michigan’s, not Italy’s, understanding of pizza.

One narrative for Michigan should be that it has continued to shape global culture, through scaled production of mortgages and pizza. It doesn’t get more American than cars + mortgages + pizza, does it?

That is from Jeff Withington.

The post What else is special about southeastern Michigan? (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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The mirror is on its way!

Have you ever wondered how a telescope keeps its mirrors in the best condition to observe the cosmos? In today’s Picture of the Week, a truck carefully carries one of the mirrors of ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT), wrapped to protect it from the harsh environment of Chile’s Atacama Desert. Its destination is the recoating facility that keeps the mirrors of this telescope perfectly shiny.

Despite being housed in enclosures that protect them from the extreme desert conditions during the day, telescope mirrors are still exposed at night, and therefore they need to be cleaned and recoated to keep their reflectivity. Dust that accumulates on the surface is regularly removed by spraying frozen carbon dioxide. Then, every 18 months or so, the mirror receives a new aluminium coating. For that, the mirror has to be removed from the telescope and slowly transported downhill to the recoating facility, a couple of kilometres away at basecamp. As the mirror is driven along, it is closely monitored by ESO staff walking alongside the transportation truck. ESO’s Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) — currently under construction — also watches silently from Cerro Armazones, seen in the background of this image.

At the recoating facility, the 8.2-metre mirror is separated from its supporting cell, a structure that protects the mirror and maintains its shape, and cleaned to remove contaminants that could damage the coating process. The thin aluminium layer, crucial for the mirror’s reflectivity, is removed with a chemical wash and replaced with a new one. After a process that takes about 8 days, including tests to verify the results, the restored mirror is then driven back up to the VLT, where it can get back to work, collecting light from deep space.

Why I am skeptical on the relationship between smart phones and fertility

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That is from Alex Nowrasteh.  And for some country by country graphs:

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Here is that link.  There might be some connection to smart phones, but it just does not seem that strong?  Perhaps the phones give a fillip and a modest acceleration to an already in place trend?  And are Kenya’s phones really all that “smart,” even today?

The post Why I am skeptical on the relationship between smart phones and fertility appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Great Balls of Fire

Several long streaks of light are clustered in a line pattern as they streak across a dark background.
Light streaks across Earth’s atmosphere in this photo captured by an astronaut aboard the International Space Station at 22:41:16 Coordinated Universal Time on April 27, 2026.

The outermost layers of Earth’s atmosphere, the thermosphere and exosphere, are relatively busy places. In these layers, tens of thousands of trackable objects, including satellites and various types of debris, orbit the planet. They are also where dozens of tons of meteoric material enter daily, occasionally producing bright fireballs as the pieces burn up.

Given all of this, there’s a non-zero chance that an astronaut might spot something fiery in the distance when looking out from the dome-shaped cupola on the International Space Station. That’s precisely what one crew member saw and photographed as the station passed over West Africa on April 27, 2026. The astronaut was looking for Progress 95, an incoming cargo craft. Instead, they spotted a bright object directly below, streaking through the upper atmosphere. “I saw its tail grow and then split apart into a shower of smaller pieces,” they later wrote on social media. “It was quite a light show!”

An object in space first appears as a circular point of light (left), develops a longer tail with a white debris field streaking behind (center), and becomes an elongated debris trail that turns orange at its end (right).
Three sequential photographs taken 30 to 40 seconds apart from the International Space Station show an object breaking up in Earth’s atmosphere on April 27, 2026.

The event was not caused by the cargo resupply ship. Progress 95 (also called Progress MS-34) docked safely on April 27 as planned. However, the astronaut may have witnessed the reentry and breakup of the rocket used to launch it, some other rocket body, a satellite, or other human-made space debris. It’s also possible that the light show was caused by meteoric material burning up. Without knowing exactly where the handheld camera was pointed, it’s hard to definitively determine the source, a scientist with NASA’s Crew Earth Observations office noted.

Most large orbital debris comes from fragmented satellites and launch vehicles. The material is concentrated within 2,000 kilometers of the surface and typically orbits at speeds of roughly 25,000 kilometers (16,000 miles) per hour, according to NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office. Though some of it can maintain a stable orbit for long periods, debris below a certain height faces atmospheric drag that pulls it earthward.

At altitudes below roughly 600 kilometers, debris typically falls back to Earth within several years. Above 800 kilometers, it could take centuries. Above 1,000 kilometers, debris can continue circling Earth for a thousand years or more. When debris descends and encounters a thicker atmosphere, atmospheric drag and compression increase. This typically heats debris to extreme temperatures and increases mechanical stresses until it breaks up and vaporizes.

Astronaut photographs ISS074-E-540106 – ISS074-E-540252 were acquired on April 27, 2026, with a Nikon Z9 digital camera using a focal length of 200 millimeters. They were provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations Facility and the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA Johnson Space Center. The images were taken by a member of the Expedition 74 crew. The images have been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth. NASA Earth Observatory triptych by Lauren Dauphin. Story by Adam Voiland.

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Topping the Grift Sundae

Why Trump’s $10 Billion IRS Claim Is Raising Alarm Bells

The legal settlement under discussion between the IRS and Donald Trump is so blatantly outrageous that it takes the breath away.

Sourced reports from inside the IRS this week disclosed that there are serious talks underway to settle a $10 billion claim by Trump, along with two of his sons and the Trump family business, that they were wronged by a leak of some of his tax information.

The talks have included direct payments to the Trumps, forgoing audits, and, on Friday, a proposal for a $1.7 billion fund to recompense Trump political allies, including the more than 1,500 convicted for crimes arising from the Jan. 6. 2021, Capitol riots to keep Trump in office beyond a lost election.

Whatever the final amount of any such settlement or even the final payees, it means that that the Trump government will be paying taxpayer funds or another public benefit to the very president who oversees the department that would cough up the money.

There are legal arguments galore about the obvious conflict of interest, and a hearing before U.S. District Judge Kathleen M. Williams in Florida is set for May 27 to determine if a sitting president can constitutionally sue federal agencies he oversees.

Clearly, the entire basis of the court system is to pit adversarial arguments, not to have both sides representing the same client. It’s not even clear whether the Justice Department should be arguing for Trump or defending the IRS and Treasury.

Thus, internal talks about a settlement.

According to New York Times reporting, the Justice Department is assessing how to resolve the case, including evaluating settlement options that include  compensation using taxpayer funds to an agreement that the IRS drop audits of Trump, his family, and his business entities.

The Trump lawsuit argued that IRS and Treasury failed to prevent a former IRS contractor, Charles Littlejohn, from gaining access to Trump’s tax documents, which were shared with ProPublica and The New York Times. Littlejohn went to prison for five years as a result.

What Exactly Was the Damage?

The lawsuit skips over the fact that Trump is the only president not to share publicly information about his tax returns or to explain exactly what harm has befallen the Trump family or its enterprises as a result. How does being elected president, an office that invites scrutiny, constitute harm here? How has his family businesses suffered as they continue to draw oversized donations from billionaires and Trump faithful alike?

The $10 billion number seems plucked from the air. If Trump truly believes in the principle, he could have sued for one dollar.

Of course, Trump and his family businesses have repeatedly disregarded ethical rules and practices  aimed at preventing government officials from profiting from public office. Clearly any substantial settlement payment in this case could dwarf his other self-serving government grifts.

The official White House stance is this: “President Trump continues to hold those who wrong America and Americans accountable.”

Obviously, Trump and this Justice Department have held a particular partisan view over what wrongs exist for which to seek accountability.  That is how we have seen hundreds pardoned for Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot charges and prosecutions of Trump political opponents, as well as the dismissal of scores of Justice Department prosecutors who would not follow Trump’s insistence to bring charges against perceived enemies without evidence of crimes.

Is Any of It Legal?

Among the most curious aspects to the settlement talk is that a successful agreement could simply avoid going to court to determine the most basic conflict of interest.

If a settlement comes before Judge Williams can decide whether the underlying lawsuit is valid, her authority to overturn any agreement would be limited. Even if the judge were to find such a settlement to be collusive or reached in bad faith, legally it would likely be viewed as a private agreement with a federal agency.

Apart from compensation, forgoing future audits of Trump businesses clearly would be a huge personal gain for someone who brags that his companies play fast and loose with tax laws. The leaked tax documents showing that Trump  reported losses in his IRS  audits could cost Trump more than $100 million.

As it happens, many legal experts see a defense to the Trump lawsuit on technical grounds about its filing and the bloated damages sought. There also is an argument about whether the IRS is responsible for the actions of a contractor who stole documents.

A similar lawsuit in 2024 ended in a public apology, not a government payout.

Trump already has built a legacy of personal gain in office that far exceeds that for any other president, with foreign gifts, including a Qatari royal jet, investments in cybercurrency or real estate businesses he or his family run with presidential promotion, and the continuing collections of tens of millions of dollars from those who seek influence with his office.

Still, arranging for a whopping payment by taxpayers whom Trump fleeced in his IRS tax avoidance schemes seems a huge cherry atop a grift sundae.

On Adding to the No-Bid Contracts

The Trump administration is attempting to bypass competitive bidding procedures to speed work on the proposed 250-foot, triumphal  arch near Arlington National Cemetery by leveraging an existing White House contract with AECOM Services, documents obtained by The Washington Post show.

Park Service acting director Jessica Bowron requested permission April 22 to extend a White House contract for environmental assessment work to the arch site, which sits on National Park Service land a mile from the White House. Within an hour of her email White House officials approved the request.

The arch work now joined the multimillion dollar work to resurface and paint the reflecting pools and the ballroom as no-bid work.


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The post Topping the Grift Sundae appeared first on DCReport.org.

Existing Stakeholders Have a Say in the Future

A follow-up point on my “AI Is Technology, Not a Product” column over the weekend. Here’s a repeat of Steven Levy’s argument that John Ternus must direct Apple towards building “a killer AI product”:

By the end of this decade, it’s unlikely that people will swipe on their phones to tap on Uber or Lyft. They will just tell their always-on AI agent to get them home. Or that agent will have already figured out where they need to go, and the car will be waiting without the friction of a request. “There’s an app for that,” may be replaced by “Let the agent do that.”

Putting aside whether this is technically feasible or psychologically comfortable, what Levy is arguing here is yadda-yadda-yadda-ing over Uber and Lyft’s say in the matter. Those two companies are now deeply entrenched. They might get disrupted. (Google’s Waymo isn’t operating here in Philly yet, but I see their vehicles around the city all the time now. You can’t miss them.) But I think it’s a good bet that most ride shares at the end of this decade (which is Levy’s own timeline) will largely be Ubers and Lyfts.

Uber and Lyft get to decide the terms of which platforms they’re hail-able from. Here’s a note a friend sent me that prompted this follow-up:

It’s a newbie take to think all deeds will soon be on the blockchain, all newspapers will migrate to RSS, all broadcast companies will put shows out on one service.

Some companies will forge a path into the next medium, some will be replaced, and others will succeed at slowing its adoption.

When people get taken by a wave of technology hype, there’s a strong tendency to assume that not only will other people get taken by the same hype wave, but that entrenched stakeholders will too. That often doesn’t happen. Walmart still doesn’t take Apple Pay, for chrissakes. The idea that Uber and Lyft are going to put their own futures in the hands of OpenAI and Anthropic (or Google, who, through Waymo, is already their direct competitor) seems like folly.

 ★ 

Severe Storms and Heavy Rain in Texas; Record Heat Along the East Coast


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