Brian Poindexter | American Conversations
Recorded October 13, 2026.
Recorded October 13, 2026.
Recorded October 7, 2026.
Recorded September 23, 2026.
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Recorded October 21, 2026.
In which I try to answer your questions about modern politics....
In today’s Politics Chat: Socialism is a system in which the government owns the means of production. After the Civil War, opponents of Black voting used the term socialism to attack Black political participation. Two days before congressionally mandated sanctions on Russia were set to take effect, Trump said he would waive them. Russia has proposed a trilateral meeting with Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping to decide the fate of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces lost control of their drones when Starlink slowed during one of the worst bombardments of the war. The Wall Street Journal reported that Elon Musk ordered the slowdown. Europe and Canada are working to build their own satellite systems. Republicans in Congress say they are frustrated with Trump’s actions, but they have not moved to stop him. Trump announced $8 billion for farmers, but payment rates will not be announced until after the election.
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Recorded October 20, 2026.
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Alexander Ward and Lara Seligman of the Wall Street Journal reported today that Trump called Elon Musk yesterday to ask him to stop throttling Starlink’s military-grade communications system, Starshield, in Ukraine. Slowing down the system degrades Ukraine’s defenses as well as its offensive drones, leaving it even more vulnerable to Russian attacks. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has taken advantage of this vulnerability by increasing strikes against Ukraine’s civilians.
The whole question of who ordered the slowdown in the first place remains a blame game between Trump and Musk, both of whom support Russia in its war on Ukraine. Members of the administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.S. ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker, have tried to sell the slowdown as a business decision that Musk has the authority to make.
Whitaker told the Fox News Channel yesterday: “They are a private company. Obviously they have terms of use that are applied to all of their customers, including the Ukrainians, and I think it’s more of a dispute along those lines…than anybody in this administration trying to change the way that Starshield or Starlink is used.”
Strategic studies scholar Phillips P. O’Brien wasn’t buying that explanation, posting that it is evident “the White House is desperately trying to make [Musk] the fall guy for what is happening to Ukraine.” He continued: “If Trump wanted to help Ukraine militarily and with starshield he could. He is president. He doesn’t want to.”
But it is simply astonishing that the president of the United States, the commander in chief of the United States military, is suggesting he had to negotiate with a private citizen to tell him to stop interfering with American foreign policy.
This afternoon, asked about the call, Trump told reporters: “[I]t was a very interesting situation. So I don’t want to comment one way or the other, but, uh, my re—, my relationship with Elon is a very good one.” He reiterated: “I don’t want to comment on it. You know, whether I called or whether somebody else called, doesn’t make any difference. I guess the bottom line, he put it back.”
It remains unclear if the Ukrainians do, in fact, have full use of the networks again. Siobhán O’Grady, Carlotta Gall, and Anton Troianovski of the New York Times reported yesterday that a senior Ukrainian commander told them he had lost more than a million dollars worth of drones when Starshield went fuzzy from the slowdown. For the next three days, he had to stop almost all operations, endangering his troops by hampering their ability to stop Russian advances by striking Russian command posts and fuel hubs.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported today that officials from Rosneft, Russia’s biggest oil producer, say sanctions and Ukrainian drone strikes that are pushing deeper and deeper into Russia threaten the company’s survival. Profits for the company, which produces about a third of Russia’s oil, are falling and its debt is rising as the strikes cause fuel shortages.
Ukrainians are repeatedly hitting the refineries, one as far as 2,500 kilometers (about 1,553 miles) from the border, first damaging the structures and then destroying repairs after workers have rebuilt the structures, forcing the company to take on more and more debt as it shovels money into repairs that don’t survive. Even when it can find the money, sanctions limit its ability to replace equipment. The officials say even a few more months of war could destroy Rosneft.
The crisis explains why Putin and Trump are so desperate to stop Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil refineries and to lift sanctions on Russia. Rosneft’s loans from the Credit Bank of Moscow are becoming problematic, straining the bank.
In a sign this year’s writers are straining to make things as obvious as possible, Alex Horton and Dan Lamothe of the Washington Post broke the story today that in February, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth apparently decided he wanted to display in his office one of the two floor globes General Dwight D. Eisenhower used during World War II.
Eisenhower was the erudite five-star general who oversaw the Allied invasions of North Africa and Sicily before directing the Allied invasion of France and Germany as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe. He is widely credited with defeating the Nazis.
After the war, Eisenhower went on to the presidency of Columbia University, where he devoted his energies to founding the American Assembly, a think tank to gather the world’s greatest minds to bring the understanding of history, foreign affairs, and philosophy to address the problems of the post–World War II world.
In 1952, when the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination vowed to cut U.S. support for the fledgling North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Eisenhower ran for president to protect the new postwar institutions that he believed were vital to global security in the face of an aggressive Soviet Union. He won the Republican nomination and then the presidency with almost 55% of the vote, retaking the White House from Democrats for the first time since 1933.
During the war, Eisenhower had visited Ohrdruf, the Nazi concentration camp that funneled prisoners to Buchenwald, a week after soldiers liberated it. He was shocked to the core. “I never dreamed that such cruelty, bestiality, and savagery could really exist in this world!” he wrote to his wife. Determined to do all he could to guarantee that such atrocities never happened again, he urged reporters and congressmen to visit the camp to ensure there were witnesses, pictures, and films to contradict anyone who might, in the future, try to deny the horrors that had taken place.
After the war, Eisenhower embraced the work of San Francisco philosopher Eric Hoffer, who explained in his 1951 book The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements that economically or culturally dispossessed people were natural targets for political and religious extremists. They could easily be manipulated to back a demagogue who promised to resurrect a world in which they had enjoyed prosperity and cultural significance. Such a leader was dangerous enough during the Nazi era, Eisenhower thought, but with the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945, such a strongman could destroy humanity.
Eisenhower believed that it was crucial for the U.S. to build alliances and to help increase standards of living around the globe in order to prevent such a scenario. He built NATO and began the Food for Peace initiative, a program that later was absorbed into the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the same agency that Musk and Trump shredded in 2025.
In their story about Eisenhower’s globe, Horton and Lamothe reported that Hegseth was so eager to get the historic object in place that rather than waiting for trained curators to move it, as is expected for any such priceless historic artifact, Hegseth’s staff decided to retrieve it on their own.
They dropped it.
The artifact smashed into its base, and the stand impaled it, ripping a gash through the fragile globe.
It never did end up in Hegseth’s office.
It is currently undergoing repairs.
—
Notes:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6164055-starlink-slowdown-ukraine/
https://www.archives.gov/research/foreign-policy/related-records/rg-286
Dwight D. Eisenhower to Mamie Eisenhower, April 15, 1945, in John S. D. Eisenhower, ed., Dwight D. Eisenhower, Letters to Mamie (New York: Doubleday, 1978), p. 248.
X:
atrupar/status/2112969961010323896
PhillipsPOBrien/status/2113198437105909981
In which I try to answer your questions about modern politics....
In today’s Politics Chat: Trump said he asked Elon Musk to lift restrictions on Starlink and Starshield, the communications networks Ukraine relies on to fight off Russia. The slowdown of those networks during a massive Russian barrage left Ukraine unable to defend against incoming drones and missiles. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested that Vladimir Putin has something on Trump. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s staff dropped and damaged a globe Dwight Eisenhower used to plan World War II. White House leaks suggest aides are jockeying for power as Trump heads toward lame duck status. Vice President JD Vance backed Vivek Ramaswamy’s attack ad against Amy Acton, which drew bipartisan revulsion. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appears to be iced out of talks with Russia. Republicans timed the biggest Medicaid and SNAP cuts in their budget bill for after the midterms. New candidates across the country are reshaping American politics much as in the 1850s. Attorney General Todd Blanche would not rule out challenging some votes.
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So early yesterday morning, a friend of mine sent over this …
And my pal wrote: “I don’t have a law degree, but I find it troubling that the leader of a tax-exempt religious organization is using his title as church pastor to endorse a political candidate.”
If you don’t know of Jack Hibbs, consider yourself blessed. Well, not blessed by Jack Hibbs, but blessed to have your sanity maintained and your decency uncorrupted.
Hibbs is the head of Calvary Chapel Chino Hills, a “church” [quotes intended] that puts the Gee in Jesus and the Jar in Jarringly Inconsistent when it comes to following the actual principles of religious doctrine.
Under Hibbs’ stewardship, Calvary Chapel Chino Hills has become a safe landing spot for hard-right dotards like Dixon, the Board of Supervisor candidate who (quite literally) specializes in backing/supporting policies that do nothing for the poor and give to the rich. And it shouldn’t be surprising, because Hibbs (again—a member of the clergy who professes to love God) is all in on MAGA. Literally, he has never (never, ever, ever) spoken out against Donald Trump, or his cheating on wife 1 with wife 2 and wife 2 with wife 3 and wife 3 with a porn star he raw dogged, then paid off in hush money. He has never condemned Trump for calling people fat and ugly and retarded; has never admonished him for Jan. 6 or mimicking the disabled reporter or making $2 billion off the presidency or just being jarringly, uniquely cruel and mean.
Nope, Hibbs has endorsed Donald Trump repeatedly.
It all makes me wonder: Do people like Jack Hibbs get it? Do they understand what they’re doing to faith? Do they understand that, by not following the virtues of Christ, they are basically screaming, “Don’t worry about Christianity—it’s all a big lark”? Does Jack Hibbs understanding how damaging this all is? How unethical this all is? Hell, how wrong it is to involve a church in politics and make his voting record his followers voting record?
Does he grasp what’s going down here?
My guess is no.
My guess is Jack Hibbs wants to be a player in the political game, far more than he loves him some Jesus.
So he stands before a crowd, praises all things God and Jesus—then puts his weight behind candidates who behave as Christ-like as a sewer rat.
Amen.
PS: Seriously, does this read like the bio of a dude who places God first?

Tribologists study friction: what happens when things rub together. It’s indispensable, from the wheel to the paths of stars
- by Jennifer R Vail
Here is their episode summary:
Economist Tyler Cowen joins David Wolpe for a conversation about AI, religion, and what makes us human. Tyler makes the case that AI’s biggest impact may be on status: who gains it, who loses it, and what happens to experts like rabbis when anyone can ask ChatGPT all their questions. He also suggests that losing our monopoly on intelligence may make us feel more unique as humans, rather than less.
You can listen here.
The post Podcast with Rabbi David Wolpe appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
In the run-up to the International Festival of Economics in Turin starting today, Vanity Fair in Italy publishes an interview with me under this headline:
Alvin Roth: «Sono più preoccupato per la democrazia che per l’intelligenza artificiale»
"I'm more worried about democracy than artificial intelligence"
The Festival itself publishes this article:
ROTH E LA SFIDA DEI MERCATI RIPUGNANTI ROTH AND THE CHALLENGE OF REPULSIVE MARKETS
And here's an essay I sent in English, translated into Italian, which you can translate back pretty well:)
Economia in cerca di morale
Esistono mercati controversi (alcol, gioco d’azzardo, utero in affitto...) su cui i vari Paesi hanno posizioni diverse, riflette il Nobel Alvin E. Roth: non sempre si arriverà al consenso collettivo, ma è lecito esplorare compromessi La Lettura
Di ALVIN E. ROTH (traduzione di Rita Baldassarre)
Economy in search of morale
There are controversial markets (alcohol, gambling, surrogacy...) on which the various countries have different positions, reflects the Nobel Prize winner Alvin E. Roth: collective consensus will not always be reached, but it is legitimate to explore compromises
From Jesús Fernández-Villaverde:
Will AI poison the public finances of many modern states? There is a real risk that it will.
Yesterday, I circulated a new paper, “Saving for the Machines,” which makes a simple point. Building the AI transformation will require enormous investment. The only way to induce agents to save for that investment is through a large increase in the real interest rate. For instance, in my benchmark scenario, the ten-year real yield jumps from 5.1% to 13.6% on impact.
But that means government borrowing will become much more expensive. Here is a back-of-the-envelope calculation. Take a government that owes 100% of GDP in 2025 (a typical case in Western Europe) and runs a balanced primary budget from then on (not so typical but never mind; I want to build an optimistic scenario). That means the debt ratio changes only with the gap between the real interest rate and growth.
I input the interest rate and the growth rate for my benchmark transition to full automation, and I roll over the debt at the short rate. I consider two economies. The first economy is an AI adopter, for example, the U.S., which experiences an AI boom at home. The government pays the new interest rate but also enjoys faster growth.
The second economy is a bystander, for example, Spain. This economy lives in an integrated financial market but does not adopt AI (this is an extreme case of zero adoption, just to make the exercise transparent): it pays the same world interest rate and continues growing at its old 1.6% trend.
Let’s first consider the adopter. With an intertemporal elasticity of substitution of one-half, the Euler equation implies that consumption growth is about half the real interest rate. Hence, the gap between the interest rate and growth does not close during the AI-driven growth boom. Instead, it widens. For example, with a unit elasticity of substitution among tasks, the real rate rises from 5.1% to 42% by 2040, while growth increases only from 1.6% to 22%. Debt doubles by 2038, reaches 296% of GDP in 2040, and 907% in 2045. To hold the ratio at 100%, the government needs a primary surplus of 10% of GDP in 2035 and 24% from 2045 onward. With a low elasticity of substitution of 0.2, the numbers are milder, but the pattern is the same: 204% in 2040, 397% in 2045, and a stabilizing surplus of 13% of GDP.
But the adopter has a way out. The capital share goes to one, so net capital income is about 88% of GDP, and a flat tax on it can cover the surplus. A 36% tax on net capital income holds the debt at 100% of GDP in the limit with unit elasticity, and a 20% tax does so with strong complementarity across tasks. The tax is above the gap because it slows growth, from 21.9% to 13.6% with unit elasticity and from 11.7% to 9.1% with an elasticity of 0.2, while it does nothing to the rate the Treasury pays, which technology pins at the machines’ net return. Painful, but the boom survives and the adopter can pay its debt.
The grim news is that the bystander economy has no way out. Its capital income is still a third of GDP, which grows at 1.6%, and the surplus it needs is 11% of GDP in 2030, 26% in 2035, and 44% forever with unit elasticity (18% and 24% with an elasticity of 0.2). On a balanced primary budget, its debt doubles by 2033 and triples by 2035. No tax system raises that.
Two more bad pieces of news for the bystander. First, long yields jump on impact, so a Treasury that issues ten-year debt pays more, and sooner, than rolling over at the short rate assumes: it is the same bill but front-loaded. Second, the bystander’s own capital flows to the machines abroad, so its GDP and tax base fall below trend. One relief is that households can save for other people’s machines and get rich on the returns, which the bystander’s government can tax to some extent. This back-of-the-envelope calculation is a benchmark, not a forecast of what is to come. But the arithmetic is simple, and it runs counter to the hope that an AI-fueled growth boom will take care of public debt, because growth comes with an interest rate that is twice as high. Not a pretty future for most of Western Europe. Due to AI, the choice is between default, inflation, or, most likely, financial repression: capital controls that keep domestic savers from investing in machines abroad.
I am somewhat more optimistic than this. The assumption of zero Spanish adoption already is noted, but also ideas are public goods, and Spain can benefit from American (and Chinese) AI, and the resulting scientific advances. The long-run supply of capital also might be quite elastic, we will see.
The post Will bystander economies be able to finance their governments? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Apple Newsroom:
New editorial collections for iPhone Duo apps and games will go live on the App Store this Friday, with additional app updates rolling out throughout the year. Apps optimized for iPhone Duo are easy to identify with a Made for iPhone Duo badge on product pages across the storefront.
This story highlights dozens of apps that have been optimized. This sort of transition happens every time Apple introduces a major screen change. It happened with the iPhone X in 2017, it happened when the iPhone 6 added a Plus size, it happened when the iPhone 5 changed the aspect ratio from 3:2 to 16:9, and, most memorably of all, it happened when the iPhone 4 went retina. Every time this happens it sucks to some varying degree of suckiness to use apps that haven’t been optimized. And soon enough, all apps still under active development get updated.
Developers know that iPhone users care how apps look and work. iPhone users will switch to competing apps for something like this. I stopped checking Mastodon on my phone for the last week and half because Ivory isn’t optimized. I stopped reading my messages on Signal — I just wait until I’m back at my desk. If I bought a Duo, I’d literally stop using Signal if they don’t update their app soon. Life’s too short to use shitty apps. iPhone developers get that.
Out of all those transitions I listed above, my gut feeling is that there are more third-party apps ready to go on day one for the Duo than for any of those previous transitions. No, it’s not all apps. Some of the apps that aren’t yet updated are quite popular, and others are ones that users can’t easily just switch away from (like, say, your bank’s app). But developer support is not a problem for the Duo. If anything the launch of the Duo has exemplified better than any event in iPhone history just how different the iPhone and Android developer communities are. “Flagship” Android foldables have been out for over 7 years and developer support for them today remains nothing close to developer support for the Duo — and the Duo doesn’t even launch until tomorrow.

I’m not sure where to start with this. The latest news is some mix of Webistics, Jukt Micronics and Animal House. But here goes. Yesterday we noted that a FiftyPlusOne investigation had led to the outing of “Wedgewood Polls” as a publisher of entirely fake polls. It’s still unclear the precise motives, but some political narrative setting aim and gaming betting markets seem like good bets. The details are wild. (But see the earlier post or FiftyPlusOne’s write-up for more.)
Early this morning I woke to a short item in The Washington Post noting another pollster, SoCal Strategies, had straight up disappeared. By disappeared it meant that overnight its website, Substack and Twitter account had all vanished. In the earlier write-up of the investigation of Wedgewood, FiftyPlusOne had noted that one of the ways it had initially vetted Wedgewood was speaking to people at another polling firm where one or more of the Wedgewood guys had worked. I can’t remember if I’d already heard SoCal’s name come up in this story. But when I saw the Post item I immediately knew it had to be them. Yes, fake polls are a problem. But stuff like we’re seeing here is super rare. They had to be connected.
It turns out that this too was almost certainly prompted by the FiftyPlusOne investigation of Wedgewood. (Here’s their followup piece on SoCal.) They’d apparently reached out to SoCal in the process of investigating Wedgewood. But as the Wedgewood thing blew out they went radio silent. And now they’ve disappeared entirely.
If any of you remember the Stephen Glass saga and Jukt Micronics, a lot of the latest round of this story feels like that. It’s not clear that a number of the named people involved even exist. And in the cases of people who FiftyPlusOne seems to have verified do exist, it seems like people may have been impersonating them. So like a latter day Stephen Glass, it’s quite possible that both of these companies and all the people involved may be one dude in his basement with a half dozen burner phones.
A slight wrinkle to the story is that, reading between the lines, it’s possible that SoCal may have started out as a legitimate operation and then been taken over by fraudsters. But that’s still unclear.
The surest bet for this whole thing still seems to be Jack Sims, a Republican operative from Florida who is a prolific operator on right-wing spaces. But we probably need to be open to the possibility that he may not actually exist.

Here is one of those things we can see on the horizon and it will be important to be ready for. It will become especially important if Democrats take both the House and the Senate.
It’s a given that even with only the House under Democratic control, we’re in for a period of pretty intense inter-branch conflict. Just how intense, whether Democrats will fight as much as their partisans demand … those things we can’t know. But this basic feature of the next Congress is pretty clear. What I’d like to discuss here is a wrinkle in that fabric that hasn’t gotten enough attention.
We know that the corrupt majority on the Supreme Court has been busily dismantling the constitutional order and empowering the second branch of government (the executive) over the first (congress). But that fact has been significantly obscured by the fact that the president’s party controls Congress. And it’s more than just that Republicans control both chambers. The current Republican party is subservient to Donald Trump to a degree unknown in modern American history and arguably at any time in American history. So to a great degree the first branch is being run from the second branch. You don’t clearly see the impact of the Court handing the power of the purse to the president because the Congress already gave it to him. Or, more specifically, you don’t see a lot of fighting over it. You don’t see the topic getting litigating in the court of public opinion and political action, or Congress trying to reclaim those powers. So we don’t yet how much additional law the Corrupt Court would make to prevent Congress from wrestling some of that power back.
In a way, maybe this just comes under the heading of “everything sucks.” But we can be more proactive and forward thinking than that. No form of Court reform can take place before 2029 at the earliest, and then only with a Democratic trifecta. So no matter what happens on November 3rd, 2027 and 2028 are together the window of time for making the case for Court reform, building public support for it, most especially making a public argument that the Court’s corruption isn’t just about technicalities of independent agencies or something called impoundment.
The issue of abortion rights and the Court’s role in it is heavily politicized, the issue of money in politics and Citizens United is, but to a much lesser extent. Callais and the protection of Black voting rights and political power is heavily politicized in the Black community but much, much less outside of it. The point is that while the public’s approval of the Court has nosedived in recent years, Court reform is little known or understood outside a fairly small slice of the electorate. To make court reform electorally viable you have successfully argue that it affects the lives, pocket books, safety and freedom of average voters.
That’s the challenge that has to be taken up in the next two years, no matter what the outcome of the election is. But if Democrats capture both houses of Congress, a lot of that public argument should take place, will inevitably take place, as part of the fight over the near-dictatorial power the Corrupt Court gifted to Donald Trump.
And yes, it’s Donald Trump. Because while other Republicans would likely get some of the benefits, all these decisions were made under the majority’s “when it’s Republicans” doctrine.
One final point: the point of Court Reform is to reform the Court. To put it more specifically, it is to break the power of the corrupt majority which is making war on the federal Constitution and restore the constitutional order. But that’s not the only aim. Inclusive of that effort is the goal of shaping the Court’s behavior, providing an incentive to bring itself back within the dictates of the Constitution to forestall Court Reform. This doesn’t mean it’s a bluff. Speaking just for myself but I suspect others as well we should put all our energies into reforming the Court and do so no matter whether or how its behavior changes. But we can’t know the future. We can’t know how quickly robust Democratic majorities can be assembled in its favor. We can’t know whether there will be a Democratic trifecta in 2029. So we are doing both. Because the core driver of the Court’s behavior is the majority’s belief in its own impunity, in the unreviewability of its own actions.
PHP maintainers have released fixes for two critical vulnerabilities:
PHP 8.5.12, 8.4.27, 8.3.36 and 8.2.35 fix two critical vulnerabilities that can allow unauthenticated remote code execution. All PHP users are strongly encouraged to update immediately.
Who is at risk: all PHP installations serving web requests, including PHP-FPM, Apache with mod_php, php-cgi, FrankenPHP and LiteSpeed. We consider the risk highest for mod_php, with a demonstrated exploit where an unauthenticated request can trigger the attack before any application code runs.
The vulnerabilities:
- RCE via OOM corruption, CVE-2026-109618 (GHSA-w8hw-w9fx-j79w): out-of-memory handling can interrupt PHP while internal request data is only partially initialized. Request cleanup may then treat the invalid data as valid.
- RCE via stale global state, CVE-2026-109619 (GHSA-6wmf-4rv5-p3rp): request-owned internal state can survive after its backing memory has been freed. A later request handled by the same worker may use that stale state before normal initialization resets it.
Updating PHP is the only way to regain security. Do it now.
More news.
Up to the office, where we sat till noon and then I home to dinner, and after dinner with my wife to her study and there read some more arithmetique, which she takes with great ease and pleasure. This morning, hearing that the Queen grows worse again, I sent to stop the making of my velvet cloake, till I see whether she lives or dies.
So a little abroad about several businesses, and then home and to my office till night, and then home to supper, teach my wife, and so to bed.
Donating Agent Skills to the Agentic AI Foundation
News today from Anthropic:We’re committed to keeping Agent Skills open, community-driven, and vendor-neutral. Today, we are donating the standard to the Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation, which we co-founded with Block and OpenAI last year, and to which we donated the Model Context Protocol (MCP).
I'm pleased to note I called this one last December, when Anthropic first declared skills to be an "open standard":
I wouldn't be surprised to see this end up in the AAIF, recently the new home of the MCP specification.
Fun side note: since my blog content is available to Claude via the datasette-mcp
plugin I found that post by prompting Claude to "Use simonwillison.net MCP to find if I ever talked about how I want skills to be donated to a standards body".
Tags: standards, ai, generative-ai, llms, anthropic, model-context-protocol, skills
As fun as AI is, we built so much bad software over the last 30 years, and now the universe is punishing us for our sins.
Tags: security, generative-ai, armin-ronacher, ai, ai-security-research, llms
If you’re lucky enough to stay at the Taj Falaknuma Palace in Hyderabad, you can walk out of the Nizam’s former study and onto a balcony and then take in the entire city. The palace sits atop a hill near the old parts of town, and the multitudes of neighboring mosques create a surround-sound effect during the calls to prayer. Farther off (through the smoggy air) lies the tech center of Hyderabad, packed with its towering, modern offices that speak to the software outsourcing, services, and call center operations that helped fuel India’s vast and powerful technology economy.
Much of what you can see from the hotel is now under threat, as the rise of AI technology seems quite bad for the core of India’s technology industry. Artificial intelligence agents that can code and handle customer service tasks undermine a lot of what makes this place tick. That fear has contributed to a massive decline in Indian technology stocks over the past year. People have bet that cheap, smart labor will not be able to compete with ever-improving AI agents and that the Indian tech giants of yesteryear will fall and fall hard.
The hope in this country then lands on a new generation of startups. There are companies like Ather, Airbound, Alteon and Aspera Industries – just to do the As – that represent a fresh take on the Indian technology scene that few people outside India have noticed. These are hardware companies trying to build machines unlike anything built elsewhere, and, if you believe the most optimistic people here, they’re meant to turn India into a true hard-tech innovator and help the country better compete with the likes of China and the United States in the decades to come.
Let’s start with Ather Energy. It was founded in 2013 and initially planned to build low-cost Stirling engines that could be fueled by agricultural waste and bring power to rural India. The company, though, changed course and began making all-electric, two-wheeled scooters. It would be easy to argue that it’s now the most innovative scooter producer in the world, and Ather’s business is booming. The company is expanding its manufacturing lines to produce more than 1 million scooters per year.
I toured Ather’s facilities a couple of weeks back with the company’s CEO and co-founder Tarun Mehta and saw a factory full of young, hard-working people assembling one machine after another. Ather now sells three flavors of scooters – low-cost, sporty and comfort – and they start at about $1,000. The scooters are well-engineered, with Ather working in-house on the frame, motor controllers, battery packs and software, and they’re also very good-looking. Like Tesla, Ather has been building out its own charging network in India and keeps adding features like pothole detection to its software so that the machines get better after you buy them.
Ather went public in India last year and is now worth almost $7 billion. This is both a loss and a win for India.
I try to go into San Franciso every Friday. Up at 5:30, into North Beach by 7:30, get a latte and work on laptop for several hours, then head to Aquatic Park to swim, then an Irish Coffee at the Buena Vista (super touristy, but still a great hangout — have had many a fine conversation at the bar with out-of-town visitors).
Then off for lunch, errands, exploring various neighborhoods. It never fails, I’m so excited to hit the strum, the vibrations of the city. People, cafes, stores, storefronts, Waymos, busses, bakeries, restaurants, sirens, grafitti — can’t take the city out of this boy.
Most of these pics are in the Mission district, which I find to be thriving right now.
First stop, because I needed some tea for Lesley’s-friends-on-her-birthday-gathering (October 7), the San Francisco Herb Company, at 250 14th St.:
I realize now I should have moved slower in these videos, so you could register what was being showed. Next time poco a poco.
Then over to Bernal Cutlery at 746 Valencia Street, incredible collection of knives (a chef’s paradise):
.
Was hungry, saw Dumpling Story at 694 Valencia, decided to check it out, and had really good Crab and Pork Xiao Long Bao, (Shangainese food):
The Lus de Luna Mexican store at 3182 24th Street has an incredible number of items especially relevant this next week for its (I’ll bet, 1000s of) Día de Muertos (Nov 1-2) items:
Below: Wise Sons Jewish Deli, 3150 24th. They advertise “boiled bagels:” Gonna try this one day.
Sun Fat Seafood, 2687 Mission:
Did Elon Musk decide by personal fiat to cut off Ukraine’s access to vital communications? Although Musk claims that the decision was made by Trump, according to the Wall Street Journal, some U.S. officials state that Musk did indeed take it upon himself to pull the plug on Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is quoted as saying that the administration was blind-sided: “There was no foreknowledge.”
Now, perhaps Donald Trump told him to do it, sotto voce, Mafia-style: (“This Zelenskyy guy is a problem. Someone should do something about it.”) And Trump could demand, but hasn’t, that Musk restore Ukraine’s access.
However, given that there is now finger-pointing going on and there are credible statements that Musk himself was the instigator, we now need to seriously consider the implications. No private individual should, or indeed even have the capability to, make national security policy. Slowing down Starlink was, in effect, a U.S. intervention in a foreign conflict. It helped Russia, our long-time adversary, and hobbled Ukraine, during a very critical time in this war. It also helped Russia at a time when Putin is increasingly emboldened to menace Europe through acts of sabotage, intimidation and support of the extreme right such as the AfD in Germany. (Recall that Musk has openly supported the AfD.)
While Trump and Musk are now openly supporting Vladimir Putin, their actions are unpopular with the American public. Very few Americans agree that the U.S. should be supporting, not opposing, a brutal dictator’s attempt to conquer a democracy:
Let’s be clear about the current state of the war between Russia and Ukraine. On the military battlefield, Ukraine has been gaining the upper hand. Hence Putin has turned to attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, electricity in particular. If Musk doesn’t restore that access quickly, the result will be the deaths of thousands of innocent Ukrainians. Moreover, he will embolden Putin to further menace and attack our Nato allies, as well as supporting neo-Nazis like the AfD.
Some may object as follows: Musk owns Starlink. Doesn’t he have the right to do what he wants with a business he owns?
No.
Yes, America has a market economy. And to make this economy work, we need to respect property rights. But we are, first and foremost, a democracy. And in a democracy, the rights of private property don’t and never have included the right to act against the nation’s interest — where democratically elected representatives of the people, not business owners, should decide what is in the nation’s interest. Capitalism is not an excuse for treason.
Let’s look at a hypothetical case. Taiwan’s air force flies F16s made by Lockheed Martin. Imagine that for some reason — perhaps as part of a business deal with China — Lockheed Martin suddenly moved to degrade Taiwan’s military capability by cutting off access to spare parts, upgrades, munitions, computer networks and more. Would anyone consider such action acceptable, a legitimate exercise of property rights? Surely not. There would be immediate demands that Lockheed Martin reverse its actions — and if it refused, the federal government would step in to temporarily take control of the company.
This has actually happened in the past.
U.S. mobilization during World War II relied overwhelmingly on private contractors. But these contractors weren’t free to do as they pleased. Among other things, the federal government was anxious to avoid labor conflict that might impede the war effort. So the National War Labor Board negotiated mandatory settlements between management and workers.
Some businessmen didn’t want to go along. In particular, Sewell Avery, the chairman of Montgomery Ward, simply refused to comply with the terms of collective bargaining agreements that had been hammered out with the United Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union.
At the time, Montgomery Ward was both a major retailer and a major manufacturer, whose production of tractors, auto parts and more were important parts of the war effort. But Avery placed a higher priority on resisting unionization than on defeating the Nazis.
So in April 1944 FDR ordered the Army National Guard to seize Montgomery Ward’s main plant in Chicago. National Guard troops literally had to carry Avery out of his office:
Later that year the federal government also seized a number of other Montgomery Ward facilities.
It’s important to realize that none of these actions were attempts to impose long-term government control of the economy. There was never an intent to permanently nationalize Montgomery Ward. But the principle was clear: private individuals do not have the right to undermine national security. And if temporary nationalization is the only way to stop them from doing so, so be it.
So, back to Elon Musk: In modern warfare, where communication and real-time information are as important as rockets and artillery, Starlink is as central to national security as Lockheed Martin. Decisions about which countries have full access to Starlink’s capacity are as much a matter of foreign policy and national security as decisions about which countries will be allowed to buy and operate U.S. high-tech weapons.
Such decisions cannot, must not, be left up to private individuals. This would be true even if these individuals were patriots who supported democracy and American values. They definitely shouldn’t be left in the hands of this guy.
Musk will surely, and rightly, be the focus of many investigations if Democrats win the midterms. But don’t expect this to chasten him: His response to the prospect has been to make menacing threats:
Which reinforces the point that control of Starlink must, one way or another, be taken away from Elon Musk. It’s a matter of national security: we cannot let private individuals make foreign and defense policy, and it would be totally irresponsible to leave a crucial military asset in the hands of a racist, authoritarian conspiracy theorist.
DE STAAT - FREEDOM (Official Music Video)
OK well this is a first for me... at 00:44 in this new music video by Dutch alternative rock band De Staat:
The visual effects are credited to Matties Grooten of Fake it or Leave it.
Tags: music, ai, generative-ai, pelican-riding-a-bicycle
Links for you. Science:
Controversial US-backed vaccine trial in African newborns halted
How Bad Is Another Case of Covid?
NSF closes fiscal 2026 with over $1 billion left unspent
Marine life dramatically declined in Gulf of Mexico in years after BP oil spill, study finds
Start-Up Claims to Use A.I.-Created Viruses to Treat a Patient (the corporate press release doesn’t actually describe if the treatment worked though)
A simple touch can bring dying corals back to life in just 7 weeks
‘Back at Square One’: Christina Applegate Says Her M.S. Was Misdiagnosed
Other:
Why I wish you didn’t want to see Nathan Fielder’s Elizabeth Holmes documentary. Holmes’ compelling lies, and why we should all, perhaps, just look away
‘Reverse-Engineer Anything’ Is the New Wild West of AI
Musk and Thiel are Evil Demagogues. What Sustains Them?
He’s Adapted to a Wheelchair. He Wishes D.C. Would, Too.
U.S. officials privately advise states fearing Trump election meddling
Progressives Are Applying The Wrong Litmus Test. The proximate obstacle is corrupt Republicans, and disempowering them requires democracy reforms, not a sufficiently bold agenda.
Dem Candidate In Arizona: My Rape Was Not A ‘Hoax’ Concocted for Votes
JD Vance Will Now Hear Your Petition to Remain
Could Mississippi Elect Its First Black Senator Since Reconstruction?
Musk’s Fake Flying Car And ‘CEO Said A Thing!’ Journalism
Online forum controlled by Nevada GOP House candidate contains slurs and Nazi talk, AP review finds
Republicans Drop Holy Sh*t Ad Featuring Amy Acton’s Estranged Pedophile-Marrying Mother
Recipe Scammers Are Using an AI-Generated Emily Blunt as a Slop Puppet to Promote Their Garbage
What Makes Men in Groups Behave So Badly?
How Corruption Got This Bad. Over the course of decades, the Supreme Court has legalized behavior that is poisonous to a functioning democracy.
There Is a Zionism That Needs the Support of Progressives
Inside the Conservative Takeover of the University of Texas
Putin’s American friends: ‘Realist’ critics of Nato echo Moscow’s talking points on Ukraine
Computer Chips Are the Most Magnificent Things Humanity Has Ever Made
Prediction markets are now ‘bespoke insurance’ for businesses, and a Los Angeles restaurant group’s $60,000 hedge on Kalshi is the latest example
94 Year-Old Electronics Billionaire Accused of Hiring Goons to Infest Chicago With Huge Rat Swarm
Conservatives are turning on Mar-a-Lago face
The State Department Is Pushing Out Senior Foreign Service Officers
The 75-year-old screenagers
Trump Pardoned Venezuelan Billionaire After Family Offered Alina Habba $50 Million Deal
We Got This
D.C. tenants say Buwa Binitie runs an empire of neglect. Now, they’re fighting back.
Former D.C. Attorney General Crashes Protest to Defend Landlord
‘I literally just leave my house’: In this Utah neighborhood, homeowners say a noisy data center campus is disrupting their lives
Dinner under $15? It’s possible at these 7 D.C. spots
What happens across generations to wealth shocks? Do they endure and even magnify, or do they dissipate? By implication, how much modern wealth is attributable to events before 1900? This paper uses random shocks to family size in England before 1880 that created wealth shocks for the children to measure the persistence of wealth shocks. Fertility in England before 1880 was a biological lottery. For richer families, family size strongly influenced child wealth. This paper finds that such biology-induced wealth shocks had no impact on descendant wealth by three generations later. Since wealth itself persisted across more than five generations this implies that, in the long run, wealth mainly derives from sources other than inherited wealth. The observed link between nineteenth century and modern wealth does not lie in wealth transfers alone. Wealth persisted because of the familial inheritance of behaviors associated with wealth accumulation and retention.
That is from a recent paper by Gregory Clark and Neil Cummins. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The post How Long Do Wealth Shocks Persist? Less Than Three Generations in England, 1700–2026 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

I’m writing about this a little bit late, but France has been having some pretty bad riots:
After widespread rioting at the weekend – estimated to have cost several hundred million dollars in property damage and theft – France faces a toxic mix of urban rebellion, political drift and economic crisis…There was rampant looting in Paris, Marseille, Bordeaux and other cities, while the city hall in Limoges, which survived two world wars, was badly damaged by fire and its clock spire collapsed.
The violence at the weekend, which led to some 2,400 arrests, followed weeks of protests by French students angry about crumbling schools, a lack of teachers and dismal job prospects.
If there’s a reason I’m writing about this a bit late, it’s because “rioting in France” is a little like “rain in Seattle” — it’s not exactly an unusual occurrence. In 2023, France had a week of nationwide riots over a police killing. From 2018 to 2020, France was rocked by over a year and a half of near-continuous “Yellow Vest” protests and riots over economic issues. I remember two decades ago, reading about weeks of rioting in the French suburbs, accompanied by endless photos of burning cars. And so on.
French people like to riot. But this time, things are a little bit different, for a couple of reasons. First of all, this wave of unrest is accompanied by serious economic troubles. France’s long-term interest rates, like rates throughout the world, are surging:
But unlike some countries whose rates have also risen, investors have serious doubts that France’s government will take the necessary steps to pay back what it owes. The price that investors have to pay to insure against a French sovereign default has shot up even more abruptly than interest rates:

Basically, investors are starting to think that France won’t pay back its debt — that instead of raising taxes or cutting spending, the country will simply pay the cost of rising interest rates by borrowing even more money. Instead, investors are starting to worry that France will simply default on its bonds.
In a widely read post a couple of weeks ago, Paul Krugman argued that the problem lies with France’s old-age pensions, which are eating an increasingly enormous amount of the country’s GDP and seem politically immune to any cuts:
The rise in interest rates on French government bonds is largely driven by heightened perceptions of the risk that France could default on its national debt…France is on a fiscally unsustainable path. Debt is already very high as a percentage of GDP, and the French government is adding to that debt by running large budget deficits even though there is no emergency like a war, a severe recession, or a pandemic to justify such deficits. Furthermore, France has an aging population, which means that pension costs will, other things equal, grow much faster than revenue…
France does stand out, even among fiscally troubled nations, in one main way: its persistent inability to get realistic about retirement…The official French retirement age…was only 62 in 2023…The average actual age of retirement…was lower in France than anywhere else in Western Europe…Macron’s center-right government was on track to gradually raise the retirement age to 64, still low by the standards of other advanced nations. But due to opposition by the extreme right and the extreme left parties in France, this rise has been frozen until after next year’s election.
In other words, France needs austerity, but it can’t get it, because the French people demand ever-increasing spending. France’s government already takes up a larger share of GDP than almost any other rich country — significantly more than Sweden or Denmark:

And indeed, a very hefty chunk of that social spending goes to either old-age pensions or to health (which is heavily weighted toward the old):

Of course, there’s another way to do austerity besides cutting spending — France could raise taxes. But this will also be tough. France’s taxes are already higher as a share of its GDP than any other rich country, including the famously high-tax Scandinavian countries:

Could taxes go up even more? It’ll be difficult. In 2019, I wrote about the underwhelming results of France’s previous experiments:
The wealth tax might have generated social solidarity, but as a practical matter it was a disappointment. The revenue it raised was rather paltry; only a few billion euros at its peak, or about 1% of France’s total revenue from all taxes. At least 10,000 wealthy people left the country to avoid paying the tax; most moved to neighboring Belgium, which has a large French-speaking population. When these individuals left, France lost not only their wealth tax revenue but their income taxes and other taxes as well. French economist Eric Pichet estimates that this ended up costing the French government almost twice as much revenue as the total yielded by the wealth tax…
Another French experiment was the so-called supertax, a 75% levy on incomes of more than 1 million euros. Introduced by socialist President François Hollande in 2012, the supertax added to the exodus of wealthy individuals, most notably actor Gerard Depardieu and Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton. Star soccer players threatened to go on strike, and there was fear that France would become a wasteland for entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, the supertax raised much less money than even the wealth tax had -- only 160 million euros in 2014. The unpopular tax was repealed two years after its adoption.
France is in a difficult position here. Its membership in the EU, and its location near to other French-speaking countries like Belgium, Switzerland, and Luxembourg, make it trivially easy for rich French people to pick up and move to other countries if they see their fortunes under threat of confiscation.
France could, of course, try taxing the middle class to pay for expanded social spending, perhaps by an increase in the VAT. But this burden would fall on many of the same people who are now protesting and rioting in the streets, so it’s probably a political nonstarter as well.
In fact, the current riots are making the strains in France’s bond market worse, by making the politics of austerity seem more intractable. Various groups of protesters and rioters are demanding enormous amounts of additional government largesse — billions of euros of increased spending on schools, increases in pensions, increases in social benefits, and even subsidies for consumer goods like fuel. That demonstrates that there’s still enormous grassroots political pressure for higher government spending; even if France’s leadership doesn’t cave in to this pressure, leaders will probably be averse to making the deep cuts to spending required to put France on a sustainable fiscal path.
And that, in turn, is probably making it harder to enact any of the spending that the protesters are demanding. When protesters demand increased spending, bond markets respond by charging higher rates on French government borrowing. That increases interest costs for the government, which makes it harder to raise social spending — the exact opposite of what the protesters wanted.
Fundamentally, the French riots show the limits of the European left-liberal welfarism that has been the region’s default approach to governance for the last half-century — and which American progressives want to emulate. The French populace — or at least a powerful chunk of it — simply doesn’t seem to be able to recognize the difference between a sustainable welfare state and an unsustainable one. Instead, social benefits seem to be a one-way ratchet — higher benefits raise expectations for even higher benefits, until even the most milquetoast and inadequate of austerity measures end up causing cities to burn.
That one-way ratchet also calls into question the viability of Keynesian fiscal stimulus — the main tool that left-liberals (including me) prefer to combat deep recessions. Few serious macroeconomists now question that stimulus is effective in raising aggregate demand in a severe downturn. But Keynesian policy requires that fiscal largesse during a bust be matched by fiscal austerity during a boom, so that deficits don’t grow unsustainably. The problem is that while “austerity during the boom” is easy to say, it’s politically very hard to enact.
Hanno Lustig, reading Krugman’s post about the unsustainability of France’s borrowing, recalls the years of the Euro crisis, in which Krugman urged France to spend, spend, spend to fight the recession:
Lustig is being a little unfair to Krugman here. In fact, here’s what Krugman actually wrote in 2011, in the first post that Lustig cites:
[W]e won’t always be in a liquidity trap. Someday private demand will be high enough that the Fed will have good reason to raise interest rates above zero, to limit inflation. And when that happens, deficits — and the perceived willingness of the government to raise enough revenue to cover its spending — will matter…At a future date, when we’re out of the liquidity trap, public finances will matter…[T]he biggest source of our long-run deficit isn’t the overhang of debt, it’s the prospective current cost of paying for retirement, health care, and defense. So such a crisis — again, it’s very much hypothetical — could spiral into something very nasty, with very high inflation and, yes, hyperinflation.
Krugman was actually talking about the U.S., but he might as well have been talking about France. Keynesians don’t just say “more government spending is good” — they recognize that there are limits, so they urge governments to cut spending during good economic times.
But Lustig has a point, nonetheless. The Keynesian prescription — deficits during the bust, austerity during the boom — requires that whoever is in power during the boom take the political hit for doing the austerity. In practice, you can sometimes find politicians willing to spend their political capital on taking that hit, but it’s tough. Even Macron caved in the end.
When we look at actual French borrowing and spending during the Euro crisis of the early 2010s, it’s clear that neither the austerity Krugman feared nor the stimulus he desired was actually happening. Look at the charts above, and you’ll see that government spending didn’t rise or dip during the 2010s — it just sailed on, unperturbed, as if the recession didn’t even exist. The same was true of French government debt:

Germany actually did do austerity during the bust. France did not. In fact, they didn’t do anything — they just kept borrowing and spending.
That points to a political-economic problem for Keynesian liberalism. It suggests — as James Buchanan foresaw — that spending is often less likely to be determined by the wise judgement of technocrats, and more likely to be determined by angry ignorant people burning down government buildings.
Finally, France’s riots show the limits of one more pillar of modern left-liberalism — tolerance toward mass immigration.
It’s not obvious that African or Middle Eastern immigrants are disproportionately behind these riots. Viral videos of rioters and looters — including the famous video of the French video game store owner trying to defend his shop against young hoodlums — show a racially mixed crowd of rioters with plenty of white representation. Some past waves of riots have been driven by immigrants and their children — for example, the anti-police riots of 2023. But others, like the much longer-running Yellow Vest riots of the late 2010s, were mostly white.
Still, France’s public appears more and more inclined to blame “migrants” for the chaos in their streets. When the disorder began, the political fortunes of the anti-immigration right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen soared:

In contrast, the chances of the only major left-wing candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon, didn’t budge. Melenchon is promising lavish increases in social spending, but the public is disinterested; instead, as in Germany with AfD, and indeed all over Europe, the people are gravitating toward whoever promises to stop immigration.
America is not France, of course. Our immigrant mix is very different, and our ability to assimilate large numbers of immigrants is much greater. Our attitudes toward immigration have turned positive again, at least partly as a reaction against Trump’s brutality. But France shows that the left-liberal approach to immigration simply doesn’t work equally well for all countries.
So France’s riots aren’t just one more case of French people going wild in the streets. They demonstrate the limits of European-style left-liberalism — the lavish welfare state, the tolerant attitude toward mass immigration, and the trust in Keynesian demand management. Left-liberalism built some very beautiful and kindly societies, but its powers are not infinite.
2. New YouTube channel for Indian architecture.
3. Where do Math Olympiad gold medal winners end up? “By total gold medal count, China is the clear leader, followed by the pack of USA, Russia, and South Korea. Over 20 years China has 105 out of a possible 120 gold medals which means nearly all their students achieved gold. This is so successful that it’s common knowledge that it is harder to make the China IMO team than to get a gold medal in the IMO itself.”
4. Is El Salvador cost-competitive?
6. Do the Democrats still care about the Ivy League?
The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
At least two doctors who are former Republican congressmen think so (boldface mine):
If current polling trends hold, Republicans could lose their majorities in both the House and Senate this November. Most pundits attribute this potential blue wave to voters’ frustration with gas prices and the broader cost of living. But another issue is quietly hurting GOP candidates: our party’s often mixed messaging on vaccines…
Voters have certainly noticed — and they’re blaming Republicans. According to a recent KFF poll, more than 60% of voters now disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of vaccine policy. Only 28% of independents approve. Democrats now hold a 16-point advantage on the issue: Forty-one percent of voters trust them more to handle vaccine policy, compared with 25% who trust Republicans…
President Trump has been a strong voice for vaccines, affirming that childhood immunizations work and encouraging parents to vaccinate their children. But he has promoted vaccine misinformation in the past, and in August, he signed an executive order to slim down the childhood vaccine schedule, and at the signing, suggested a link between vaccines and autism that decades of research have ruled out.
Meanwhile, the Department of Health and Human Services has thrown a key vaccine advisory panel into turmoil, threatened government vaccination programs, and downplayed the danger of measles — all at a moment when Americans are looking to their government for clarity…
Our party’s own data warned us that backsliding on vaccines would hurt our prospects. In 2025, the Republican polling firm Fabrizio Ward published a memo finding broad bipartisan support for routine childhood vaccines and warning that undermining them would cost votes.
The numbers are stark. Seventy-four percent of Americans say ensuring broad availability of Food and Drug Administration-approved vaccines should be a priority. Nearly 70% say they would be more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who vows to preserve vaccine access over one who seeks to rescind it. And crucially, more than 50% of voters say they’d be less likely to support a candidate who doesn’t support vaccines, even if they align with that candidate on other issues.
In other words, silence on vaccines is becoming a dealbreaker for voters who would otherwise vote Republican.
For a very long time, Republicans have been able to spout stupid rhetoric in many areas and thereby build out a Coalition of the Stupid, but now that they’re actually turning that rhetoric into action, they are finally starting to suffer for it politically.
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of assholes.
Links for you. Science:
RFK Jr’s ‘deities of vaccine research’ raided by police in Guinea-Bissau. Police seize doses of hepatitis B vaccine from people at center of dispute over research on African newborns
Pennsylvania issues alert on congenital measles—something US hasn’t seen for decades
Streptococcal mutanobactin mediates interspecies competition with gram-positive bacteria
Wolves Eat More Than Meat. Researchers say the carnivores help sustain their ecosystems by spreading blueberry seeds
Roger Pielke Jr.’s Appallingly Bad Analysis of Billion Dollar Disasters
Targeted termination of scientific grants and minoritised researcher status in a national survey: a cross sectional analysis
NIH sees 7,400 fewer grants during fiscal year 2026 than in previous year
Other:
Elon Musk Is Beyond the Pale
The Native Language of Social Media Is Slurs
I was a Theranos whistleblower. In ‘You Can See Everything,’ Elizabeth Holmes is still lying. An insider’s review of Nathan Fielder’s … documentary?
It’s Evening In America
Trump wants to make Zelenskyy his midterms scapegoat
Welp
Five Takeaways From the D.C. Council’s Big Hearing on New Taxes
How Trump’s FBI Purge Saved Lindsey Graham and James Clyburn From a Bribery Investigation
Abdul El-Sayed Gives a Masterclass in Answering Bad Faith Questions
Alexandria DASH bus budget issues could lead to service cuts (diesel prices…)
How a Massive Chinese Crime Ring Hacked Staples to Steal Millions
Inflation Hits Trump’s Merch Machine
A Window Into The Trump GOP’s Machinery Of Corruption And Bad Faith
How Trump Turned His Golf Empire Into A Billion-Dollar Tax Shelter
The weird rise and spectacular fall of Katie Zacharia
Why No One Wants to Date Tech Bros
Trump kowtowing to Putin: The biggest elephant in the room. Ever. In our history.
Born Every Minute
They Fled Trump’s America. Now They Regret It
Companies rushed in on AI. Now some are pulling back
Snowball
Trump’s Voter Raids Have Begun
DHS Said They Searched Man Who Wiped GrapheneOS Phone for Child Abuse Material. They Lied
Amy Acton’s mother defended husband accused of raping her daughter at 12. Now she’s in a pro-Ramaswamy attack ad.
Better Win a District: Virginia’s Sixth
Democratic super PAC hammers GOP over trans bathroom focus
An ‘empathy gap’ divides Americans ahead of the midterms, says PRRI report
When Musk and Zuck scream “free speech,” we don’t have to listen
Amy Acton’s Mom Claims Candidate Lied About Childhood in Attack Ad — Despite Extensive Record of Abuse (the rightwing is running scared)
Minnesota candidate’s staffer quits over Hitler, antisemitic posts: ‘Curdles my stomach’

TechnoMile, the leading AI solution that unifies growth, contracts, compliance, and security workflows, has been named a 2026 Inc. Power Partner Awards winner, recognizing the company among the leading B2B […]
The post TechnoMile Recognized as a 2026 Inc. Power Partner Award Winner appeared first on SpaceNews.

Paris, France | October 2026 – Global satellite services revenues are forecast to grow 44% to reach $145 billion by 2035, according to the 33rd edition of Novaspace’s Satellite Connectivity […]
The post Global Satcom Services Revenues to Reach $145 Billion by 2035 appeared first on SpaceNews.

LOS ALAMOS, N.M. — October 21, 2026 — Space Nuclear Power Corporation (SpaceNukes) announced today that the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has awarded the company an Other Transaction […]
The post Space Nuclear Power Corporation Awarded DARPA Agreement for Ground Test of Autonomous Nuclear Reactor Controller appeared first on SpaceNews.
If you are teaching economics Modern Principles is the book to use! Great and original writing, over one hundred videos, iClicker, Achieve and lots of additional support. Contact Mike Krotine to get an examination copy.
The post Modern Principles of Economics! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

What happened when people in Bhutan, the last country on Earth without television, were allowed to watch it in 1999?
- by Aeon Video

Disconnection is at the heart of today’s crises. So my husband and I chose a radical and revealing remedy: living communally
- by Elizabeth Oldfield
The White House wants us to report government fraud! It wants citizens to become journalists! To crack down! To step up! To be friggin’ awesome, bruhs!
It has even set up a dope-ass special page on the White House website!
LFG!
And if you’re wondering! Why I’m using so many exclamation marks! It’s because I’m excited! Donald Trump and Co. are tired of fraud! They say there’s so much of it, we need to step up—as a people—and take action!
So I think! To make sure this doesn’t become yet another predictable, “Blame the left for everything!” witch hunt, we need to step up—as a people—and take action!
This is the form as I filled it out!
In all seriously, this is the White House being the 2026 White House—which is using government funds and resources to say, “Look! So much fraud from the Democrats! It’s all reported by the people!” [Except, cough, for the President making $2 billion in his first two years back. And, cough, receiving a jet. And, cough, his son’s wedding being paid for by Russians. Cough, cough]
So I suggest, immediately, everyone take a few moments, go to the site and fill out the form in the manner of what I did above.
Let’s bog these fuckers down.
Because fraud! It’s bad!
Everything feels out of whack in the United States.
First of all, the president’s behavior is becoming more and more erratic. Earlier this week, he walked past the open door of his armored car, known as “The Beast” and wandered toward an open field before Secret Service agents redirected him.
And he is losing any filter he used to have. At campaign rallies, he has taken to commenting on how he finds Ohio Republican senator Jon Husted physically attractive. “I looked at his a‑‑, and then I looked at his legs, and my—I said, ‘His a‑‑ is like, it’s like a pile of muscle.’ Then I looked at his legs, and I said, ‘Man, his feet are big.’ Then I looked at his shoulders, and I tapped him on the shoulder, and it actually hurt my hand. It was like a piece of steel. I said, ‘This guy’s a monster.’”
Today he snarled at CNN’s Kaitlan Collins: “You don’t know what you’re talking about. You’re a dummy. You’re a low-IQ person, you’re a dummy, and you work for CNN.”
In the news, Trump’s abandonment of the traditional allies of the United States to embrace Vladimir Putin and Russia remains front and center. Today, videos circulated of Trump’s special envoy to Russia, Steve Witkoff, praising Putin as a “humanitarian” even as the Russian military continues to bombard Ukrainian civilians, this week killing a baby in a stroller at a public park.
Today, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton told Kara Swisher: “I continue to believe that Putin has things on Trump. I continue to believe that he is holding photos, videos, whatever it might be.” Clinton reiterated that Trump “is a willing Putin puppet to help Putin. Putin’s not going to stop with Ukraine…. I guess Trump has this idea that he wants to divide the world,” Clinton said. “He gets the Western Hemisphere, Putin gets Russia and Europe, and Xi Jinping gets the rest of the world.”
Meanwhile, Trump claims he had nothing to do with the slowing of Starlink over Ukraine, telling a reporter: “I wasn’t involved.” When asked if Elon Musk ordered it, Trump responded: “I don’t know who did it, but I was not involved.”
Congress members, including Republicans, have vowed to hold whoever was responsible for the cuts accountable. Representative Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) said on Monday that those limiting Starshield “will be fully investigated and will be held fully accountable.” He said Congress would investigate and mete out “immediate harsh and punitive budget cuts to any responsible agency or agency head.”
Musk is not taking that threat calmly. In response to a report by Calen Razor in Politico that Democrats intend to investigate Musk’s role in cutting Ukraine’s access to Starlink communications networks, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to Russian attacks, Musk posted on social media: “Live by the sword, die by the sword. Those who pick fights with me should understand that I will find out who is really pulling the strings and come for them, not just their puppets …”
His was a shocking threat against members of Congress, but the move of Europeans and Canadians to develop their own satellite communications systems given the dangers of relying on Starlink seems to be worrying Musk. If Congress also moves the United States away from his contracts, he could be in real trouble. As Douglas P. McCormick noted in Fortune last June, Musk’s trillion-dollar fortune is not real. Almost all of his net worth is unrealized equity in companies he runs. His wealth is simply the market’s estimate of the worth of his promises to deliver in the future, and those promises depend on government contracts.
Americans are beginning to see the costs of Trumpism more generally.
As Paul Krugman noted in his newsletter this morning, twelve million Americans have lost healthcare coverage under Trump, and those who still have it have seen the cost of their premiums rise sharply. The situation will get worse in the future, since when they wrote their One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Republicans put the worst of their cuts off until after the midterms.
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reports that enrollment in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) fell by more than 5 million people, or nearly 13%, between July 2025, when the Republicans enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and June 2026. Nearly half of those no longer receiving benefits are children. Starting this month, more of the costs of SNAP will fall to states. The amount of their payment will be based on their error rates, causing them to err on the side of denying benefits and cut costs, leading even more to lose benefits in the future. Some states may have to withdraw from SNAP altogether.
In The Atlantic today, David Frum wrote that the bill for Trumpism is coming due. Although Trump promised in his first term to eliminate the national debt and in his second to balance the budget, maybe even financing a $2,000 check for every American taxpayer, the budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended on September 30 clocked in at about $2 trillion, about $160 billion more than it was during former president Biden’s last year as president. Next year’s deficit will likely be even greater.
How we got to this point, Frum reminds us, is that the Republicans’ 2025 extension of their 2017 tax cuts will reduce government revenues by $4.5 trillion over the next ten years. Their cuts to Medicaid and SNAP reduced spending by $1.1 trillion. That leaves a growing deficit that climbs to more than $4 trillion as the cost of servicing the debt grows.
Economist Justin Wolfers explained: “Washington has discovered a brilliant financial strategy. Cut benefits for people who need them, cut taxes for people who don’t, and borrow the difference from people who aren’t old enough to vote.”
Those numbers, Frum notes, don’t include the cost of Trump’s war on Iran. The administration acknowledges that fuel and munitions for that war have cost about $45 billion, but the real costs run far higher with the destruction, for example, of U.S. bases in the Middle East. The Department of Defense has asked for an additional $200 billion for the war, and Trump has asked for $1.5 trillion to fund the military in 2027, which Frum notes is up 44% from before the war on Iran.
In order to stay in power, Republicans are peddling what Jesse Watters of the Fox News Channel recently called “fear porn.” Matt Gertz of Media Matters quoted Watters’s explanation: to engage non-MAGA voters, he said: “You have to say, these people are going to take your healthcare, they’re going to let in the Third World, they’re going to jack up your taxes, and that’s what’s going to get people to come out to vote. You have to say, these people are scary and dangerous, you know what we’re all about. And that’s really a choice.”
In September, Watters warned that “the Democrat party and its communist base are running against America” and “want to shatter the pillars of Western civilization.” He continued his dark fantasy: “They want to abolish the Senate, police, ICE, and of course the border. Some of them are even calling for reparations and rent control. Others have a little bit of a problem with whites, and a majority of Democrats don’t prefer capitalism. It’s like we’re fighting the Cold War here in our own country.”
Host Sean Hannity told viewers: “We can vote to build on the successes of President Trump, his first two years in office, or you can shred your Constitution, allow our country to be taken hostage by this new radicalized leftist democratic socialist communist movement and their far-left extremist candidates.” He called Democrats “completely insane.”
A company formed last month in Wyoming has been circulating in Texas phony leaflets and text messages pretending to be from a trans rights group. Addressed to the “student” of the household, the flyers claim to be a resource guide for transgender and LGBTQ+ youth. The flyers are deliberately inflammatory, purporting to give a roadmap to children for how to separate from their parents and replace them with other adults or organizations.
Right-wing groups are sharing the mailers and linking them to Democrats. A Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives called them “disgusting and evil” on social media and posted further: “The radical left is trying to brainwash Texan children and unravel the basic framework of our society.”
In Ohio, Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy released what the editor of the Cleveland Plain Dealer called “the most vile political ad in Ohio history.” It features the biological mother of his opponent, Dr. Amy Acton, saying Acton is a liar for saying she lived in a tent as a child. In the ad, the woman tells Ohioans not to “let her become your governor.”
Acton, 60, has not seen her biological mother since she was 12, when she and her brother were removed from the woman’s home after a grand jury indicted the woman’s second husband for raping Acton. The woman helped her husband escape custody and avoid trial until he died. Charles Hilu of the National Review reported that court records confirm Acton’s history, and noted that the impoverished family did, in fact, spend a winter living in a tent.
Acton’s brother replied to the ad, saying both of them had been abused, but she had received the worst of it as she tried to protect him. “Shame on Vivek,” he said.
While Vice President J.D. Vance defended Ramaswamy’s ad, others were appalled at his attempt to use her childhood trauma against her.
The Columbus Dispatch endorsed Amy Acton and called the ad “revolting.” MK Pritzker, the wife of Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker, donated $500,000 to Acton, saying: “Bad men gain power when we refuse to stand up and fight.”
New Jersey’s Republican former governor Chris Christie told Karen Tumulty and Dan Merica of the Washington Post: “The question for all Republicans is whether this type of attitude is what we want leading our party going forward. For the last decade, our party has been infected by a corrupted moral center. Vance’s acceptance of this campaign ad only breathes life into the disease that we should be seeking to cure.”
Today Ariana Baio of the Guardian reported that Neil Bush, the brother of President George W. Bush, has voted for Democrat James Talarico rather than Texas attorney general Ken Paxton to be the next U.S. senator from Texas. Bush explained: “I have been a Republican for most of my life, and I still believe deeply in many traditional Republican principles. But character matters more than party affiliation. Our democracy depends on leaders who respect our institutions, tell the truth, accept accountability, and seek to unite rather than divide.”
—
Notes:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/20/politics/starshield-ukraine-elon-musk
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/10/20/congress/dem-gavels-elon-musk-01127662
https://www.ft.com/content/555bbf91-4c38-43ce-94b6-90f7fc04e82c?syn-25a6b1a6=1
https://censor.net/en/news/4029237/europe-is-creating-an-alternative-to-starlink-financial-times
https://fortune.com/2026/06/23/elon-musk-trillionaire-paper-wealth-spacex-tesla-exposed-failure/
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/10/trump-budget-deficit-debt/689085/
https://abcnews.com/Politics/photos-show-extensive-damage-us-middle-east-bases/story?id=136507770
https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/20/texas-transgender-pamphlets-tent-student-union/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/21/neil-bush-votes-james-talarico
X:
ZelenskyyUa/status/2112225056478679118
elonmusk/status/2112942522486202504
Gerashchenko_en/status/2112855746442318329
JustinWolfers/status/2112263595425730842
RepBrianFitz/status/2112145932049412375
Bluesky:
kenofseattle.bsky.social/post/3my4tykrxbs2e
vincedmonroy.bsky.social/post/3myg45z5kas2w
maks23.bsky.social/post/3myg3yhctpk2n
maks23.bsky.social/post/3myg455k2rc2n
maks23.bsky.social/post/3myfyoh5asc2k
editorialboard.bsky.social/post/3myg4duphrk2r
joniaskola.bsky.social/post/3myf422trp22d
froomkin.bsky.social/post/3myg4gwjhwk2i
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Silvia Console Battilana, who co-founded Auctionomics along with Paul Milgrom, writes in Forbes about the prospects for market design efforts to help conserve Utah's Great Salt Lake.
How Market Design Could Help Save Utah’s Great Salt Lake by
By Silvia Console Battilana
"the Great Salt Lake is drying up.
"To save the lake while protecting water users, business leaders can adopt a little-known but powerful economic tool: market design. When water levels drop, the consequences immediately hit commercial supply chains and local commerce. Market-based incentives give businesses a way to reward upstream water conservation, bringing more water to the lake without hurting regional growth. The invisible hand of the market could identify the least expensive conservation, compensate participating water users and restore the Great Salt Lake.
...
"The shrinking of the Great Salt Lake has many causes, and there is no silver-bullet fix. But any solution to refill the lake will likely involve conservation within Utah. Seventy-one percent of the water diverted from the lake’s basin is allocated to agriculture. If those commercial users could make more efficient use of water, more would reach the lake.
The catch is that many conservation practices, like water-friendly infrastructure and precision irrigation, are expensive. Under Utah’s traditional “use-it-or-lose-it” water rights system, users have little financial reason to conserve. Without modern economic incentives, asking businesses and farms to voluntarily cut back simply isn’t realistic.
Even if water users could be forced to cut back, it’s not clear who should cut back, or by how much. The costs of water conservation aren’t the same across users, and they can be very hard to estimate.
Market design can address both of these challenges. Crucially, markets don’t force particular actions or behaviors. Instead, well-designed markets create an incentive for farms and communities to cut back on water and be rewarded for their efforts. Anyone who can cost-effectively reduce consumption will do so, while others aren’t compelled to conserve if it would be too expensive.
Market Design Works
Even when the stakes are high and a lot stands in the way, intentionally designed markets can successfully align self-interest with the public good.
Further, market design can be used to align incentives even when money isn’t exchanged: it has been used for organ donation exchanges and food banks. Harnessing the invisible hand of the market to align incentives in pursuit of a common goal is an effective tool for difficult problems."
At some point AI will be more regulated than it is today. Furthermore, I believe that most parts of the American economy, once they are regulated, end up overregulated.
Thus it is likely that the AI sector will, at some point, end up overregulated.
Given that reality, perhaps the AI sector should be underregulated today. After all, overregulation will have decades, maybe centuries, to catch up and even the ledger.
Many regulatory issues can be considered within this framework. You can think that AI is “underregulated today”, in the static sense of that term, and still not favor additional regulation right now. You might prefer to keep it underregulated for some while to come.
The post A simple point about the intertemporal regulation of AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Using a stacked difference-in-differences design covering shootings between 1990 and 2025, I compare cohorts at affected universities before and after the shooting with cohorts at matched control universities. I find no detectable effects on time to degree, but undergraduates enrolled at the time of the shooting are 4.2% less likely to pursue further studies. Those who do continue shift toward health: the share of exposed cohorts who later enroll in a health degree rises by 1.3 percentage points (8.8%), and this effect persists among cohorts who enroll after the shooting. Effects on students present during the shooting are consistent with a response to trauma; for later cohorts, I find evidence of sorting, as master’s students with prior healthcare experience become more likely to enroll in affected universities. These results suggest that mass shootings leave institutional and cultural legacies that outlast the students who witnessed them.
That is from the job market paper of María Medellín-Esguerra, who is currently on the job market from Brown University.
The post Do mass shootings in universities lead to permanent effects? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

One interesting dimension of the “Wedgewood Polls” story I discussed last night is that Republican leaders are latching on to it as evidence that all the polls are fake or at least wrong. Normally you might see this as part of election denial or setting the stage for questioning results. Maybe it’s some of that. But this looks much more like trying to prevent the bottom from falling out in an already bad situation. If your core partisans think the election is already lost a chunk of them just won’t show up to vote at all. And that’s how you can take a bad election night and turn it into a disaster.
Here’s a tweet from this afternoon from House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) …

As I’ve argued in a number of posts, polls are no more than indicative for all the reasons we know. But the actions of the parties can be more convincing, especially in the last couple weeks. Late this afternoon the White House announced that President Trump will be going to Mississippi to hold a rally on Monday. There is no way that happens if Republicans don’t think there’s a real chance that Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) could lose. That doesn’t mean she will lose. I’m not predicting and I don’t think she’ll lose. But they think it’s possible. So it must be close.
It’s important to understand the calculus behind a decision like this. You depress the morale of your partisans when you do something like this just as it would for Democrats to see a Democratic president holding last week of the campaign rallies in Massachusetts or Maryland. (It’s the same demoralization you’re trying to prevent when you tell partisans they shouldn’t believe the polls.) But you decide that you’ve just got to do it because the risk of losing is too high. Tonight Trump is holding a rally for Sen. Darline Nordone Graham in South Carolina and all the same logic applies there. (Trump won South Carolina by 18 points in 2024 and Mississippi by 25 points.) As you’d expect, money from both parties is following Trump to these states.
While all this is happening we still seem to have very close races in Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and other states. Just as I was writing, Fox released a poll showing Texas tied at 49% a piece. That’s not meaningfully different from recent 2 point margins for Talarico. But it’s a reminder that while we’re talking about seats that only move in a historic tsunami, a lot of the states that get Democrats to 51 seats are still razor close. Different states have different dynamics. Candidate quality matters. But it certainly looks like the map is expanding rapidly. And we see that most clearly not from what anyone is saying or from the public polls but from what campaigns and party committees are doing — and where they’re sending their top people.
A crazy, crazy story unfolding tonight in the online virtual terrain of political social media and poll-watching. It’s late. But I will give you the bare outline. Seemingly out of the blue earlier this evening an outfit called “Wedgewood Polling” put out a press release stating that all but one of their polls had been fake and that the fakery was all part of a “social experiment” to test how easy it would be to produce fake polls that got aggregated on the big aggregation sites and made their way into news stories. If you’re thinking, wait, didn’t I hear something like this last summer? Yes, you did. There was a smaller-scale version of this, with the same “social experiment” rationale back in August. “Wedgewood,” though, released a lot of polls, in a number of high profile races, not just two or three of them. And there’s at least an argument that they meaningfully impacted some Democratic primary races. They certainly helped shape some campaign narratives. They had appeared to be the only independent poll of the Mississippi Senate race and the only one at all since August.
But then it got weirder.
G. Elliott Morris of FiftyPlusOne announced that his team had been investigating Wedgewood, with some pretty complex and sophisticated sleuthing, and were about to report that Wedgewood’s polls were likely fake. That triggered the press release. Here’s their story, with the addition of more reporting after the press release confirmed the fakery from “Wedgewood” itself. Definitely read the FiftyPlusOne piece I just linked. It’s fascinating sleuthing. And they deserve a lot of credit for smoking these guys out.
According to the Wedgewood press release at least, all the polls were fake but one they did in Nebraska and which they raised money for online through a GoFundMe account. Maybe. It also occurs to me that they may well now be saying that one was real because raising money like that for a fake poll could probably yield a wire fraud charge. The rest of it is deeply wrong. But it’s not clear how it would be illegal. Raising money for a fraudulent purpose is fraud. That’s a real crime.
Details and online sleuthing are ongoing. But it appears that this was either an effort to game betting sites or possibly an effort to boost DSA/prog candidates by a GOP political operative in Florida, though it’s possible that that Republican was working with someone coming from the left as well. Details are just coming out in dribs and drabs. So treat all these aims and theories about why this happened as tentative. My own hunch is that there was probably some political motive and they also decided to make some money on Kalshi as long as they were at it.
All we can say with certainty at this point is that a semi-sorta-prominent new entrant pollster was publishing fake polls. They had at least some impact. And that it definitely wasn’t a “social experiment,” above and beyond that whole idea being absurd.
Nothing major, but since publishing at 7:00pm last night, I’ve made a few additions and changes to my iPhone Duo review. I’m calling them out here, so that if you’ve already read it, you can see the changes. If I make more, I’ll add them to the top.
Regarding the camera, added and/or clarified the following (in bold):
As for the camera itself, it’s terrific. It’s clearly not of the same caliber as the iPhone 18 Pro, but it’s good. The technical specs of the Duo’s main 1×/2× camera are nearly identical to those of the year-ago iPhone Air, and I love the iPhone Air’s camera. If anything, the Duo’s camera should be better, because it gets the year-better A20 Pro imaging pipeline. Which, notably, brings support for the same new Photographic Styles, including textures like film grain, that were introduced with the iPhone 18 Pro. However, the Duo is not “Pro” — it does not get camera features like “Pro controls” (variable lens aperture, shutter speed, white balance, histogram), Apple Reference Image, spatial video, ProRES (video or RAW), or Apple Log. Apple’s “shot with iPhone” keynotes will continue to use iPhones Pro.
Also, notably different from the Air, the Duo has an ultrawide 0.5× second camera lens. This brings both the ultrawide perspective and macro photography. Like the Air, the Duo’s main 1× camera has a minimum focus distance of 15cm. That’s closer than the 17 and 18 Pro cameras (20cm), but there are a lot of times you want to snap photos of receipts or documents closer than 15cm. With the Air, you can’t focus closer than 15cm, because it only has that one camera. With the Duo, you can focus on subjects down to just 2cm away, using the 0.5× lens or the 1× lens in “macro” mode (which switches to the ultrawide lens but sensor-crops to the 1× field of view).
Regarding the security of “Unlock with Apple Watch”, I added this note:
(It’s worth noting that the wrist tap on your watch for this gives you a button to tap to lock your iPhone immediately — it’s not just a notification that it happened, it presents you with an action to undo it.)
Added this note (in bold) about it occasionally rotating (uncomfortably) in pocket, because it happened to me again twice today:
It does not go into or out of my jeans pocket smoothly. Sometimes, in my pocket, it rotates 90 degrees, which is uncomfortable. Folded up it never stops feeling heavy. It is heavy, compared to other iPhones.
Added this updated regarding the janky crossword keyboard in the NYT Games app on the Duo’s inner screen:
[Update, Thursday: One day later and there’s an updated version of the NYT Games app, and they’ve fixed the orthodontic mess of their crossword keyboard, in both orientations. Screenshot. This goes to show just how fast the Duo-optimized updates are streaming in from developers. My review was up-to-date when I published at 7:00pm ET Wednesday, and outdated by the time I woke up Thursday morning.]
The very nature of the iPhone Duo raises numerous obvious questions about what it’s like to use. Does it not feel thick and heavy, awkward both to pocket and unpocket? Doesn’t the outer (cover) screen feel small and cramped, with an unfamiliar squat-rather-than-tall layout for UI controls in every app you use? Isn’t it weird that when you open it up to use the inner screen, that all the hardware buttons on the edges of the device are in the “wrong” places for a tablet? For anyone who’s gotten used to Face ID over the last decade, is it not frustrating to go back to Touch ID? And what about third-party apps that haven’t been updated to support the Duo’s novel displays — do they not suck to use?
Clearly, the point of a Duo review is to answer these questions, which really boil down to one question: How did Apple solve these problems?
The answer is: They didn’t.
All of these problems are real, and each of them detracts from the experience of using the Duo. Some of them have been mitigated through thoughtful design and clever engineering. Some of them might be solved in future iterations of the device. Some of them, though, I believe are endemic to the very idea of a foldable, and cannot be solved.
The Duo name is perfect. It truly is like having two devices in one. The outer device is, by far, the worst iPhone Apple has ever made. It’s a miserable fat little thing. The inner device is a splendid, joyful, beautiful tablet, with a UI that out-iPads the iPad. For me, by far, it’s my favorite tablet experience ever. I prefer it to any iPad or Kindle-like reader I’ve ever used.
So I’ll cut to the chase. The decision of whether you might want to buy a Duo is not easy, because only one of its two selves is good. You might be delighted, despite its clear compromises, if what you value most is a pocketable small tablet and are ambivalent about your iPhone. You might be endlessly frustrated if you love your iPhone, and use it extensively, often for quick interactions throughout the day, every day.
I was a kid when Transformers hit the toy market. I had a few — every boy my age did — but I was more of a GI Joe kid. It always bothered me that, as toys, Transformers were clearly compromised in both states. Folded up, they weren’t good cars / trucks / fighter jets. They had obvious seams and folds. In the cartoons — and the subsequent live action films decades later — the Transformers’ disguised states are seamless. In real life with the actual toys, the disguised states were about as convincing as a pair of Groucho glasses. A regular toy car looked like a real car, and stayed together no matter how hard you played with it. A Transformer car never quite looked like a real car and would come apart when played with. Unfolded, they looked like robots, yes, but they had obvious compromises. And it was kind of a pain folding them back into vehicles. My recollection is that we played with them a lot more as unfolded robots than as folded vehicles.
And that’s what they were. They weren’t vehicles that pretended to be robots. They were robots in disguise. The Duo isn’t really a phone. It’s a tablet in disguise. And in the same way that a true toy car was a better toy car than a folded-up Transformer-as-car could ever be, the Duo-as-phone is just not as good a phone as any regular iPhone. Honestly it’s not even close.
Consider if you could snap the Duo in half, leaving the smaller outer display as a standalone iPhone. Would anyone want an iPhone this shape and size? I think the answer is that zero people would want this. The iPhone Mini, back in 2020 and 2021 with the iPhone 12/13 generations, proved not to be popular enough for Apple to keep around. The iPhone Minis were a way better shape than the outer Duo. There’s a reason why the iPhone Air is not shaped like half a Duo — because the Duo shape stinks as an iPhone. And that’s only considering the hypothetical of a thin lightweight Duo snapped in half. In real life, with the actual Duo, when you use it folded up the device is twice as thick and twice as heavy. These Transformer watches were a fun way to smuggle a toy robot into school, but they were crummy watches. The iPhone Duo is a fun way to fit an entire iPad Mini–sized tablet into your pocket, but it’s a cumbersome phone.
It does not go into or out of my jeans pocket smoothly. Sometimes, in my pocket, it rotates 90 degrees, which is uncomfortable. Folded up it never stops feeling heavy. It is heavy, compared to other iPhones:
| iPhone | Weight |
|---|---|
| Duo | 254g |
| 18 Pro Max | 249g |
| 18 Pro | 211g |
| 17 | 177g |
| Air | 165g |
It’s technically only negligibly heavier than an 18 Pro Max, but because it has so much less surface area, it feels far more dense. If it did not unfold, no one would buy this.
But, of course, it does unfold. That’s the entire point. Unfolded, it not only no longer feels heavy, it feels featherweight light. It’s uncanny. An open iPhone Duo has a 7.6-inch display and the physical dimensions are 4.6⁠ ⁠×⁠ ⁠6.5 inches. An A17 Pro iPad Mini (the current model, but supposedly not for long) has an 8.3-inch display, measures 5.3⁠ ⁠×⁠ ⁠7.7 inches, and weighs 297g (that’s the cellular model’s weight, which is only fair). The iPad Mini has a slightly bigger screen but it’s heavier. In hand, I prefer the unfolded Duo over the iPad Mini as a tablet, in every single regard other than hardware button placement. (More on that below.)
You simply cannot have your cake and eat it too. The Duo allows you to take what is, in several ways, the best tablet Apple has ever made — and thus, the best tablet any company has ever made — fold it in half, and put it in your pocket to carry everywhere. While folded in half, you can use it as an entirely functional iPhone, but it’s by far the worst iPhone experience ever — frustrating, ungainly, and uncomfortable.
Ever since it was unveiled there’s been idle speculation that, while folded, the Duo’s design is biased against left-handed users. First, because the Touch ID side button is on the right. Second, because the Duo variant of iOS moves things like application toolbars and the home screen Dock to the right.
I am right-handed, but I’m a little bit on the ambidextrous spectrum. For example, I switched to using my mouse with my left hand around 1995, when I developed RSI in my right wrist, and I’ve used my mouse left-handed ever since. (But I use a MacBook trackpad with my right thumb.) I can shoot a basketball from close range with my left hand. So going into my Duo review, I thought I’d try to use my Duo as a pretend lefty. Turns out I didn’t have to pretend. I never realized this, but I naturally use my iPhone left-handed quite a bit throughout the day. For example, while brushing my teeth. I keep my iPhone in my right front pants pocket, but I often pick it up off my desk or kitchen counter and use it left-handed.
The Duo is not comfortable left-handed. The problem isn’t the Touch ID side button — I fixed that by registering my left index and middle fingers with the Touch ID sensor. The problem isn’t right-side bias for toolbars and the Dock in iOS Duo.1 That’s not great for left-handed use, but the truth is there’s a reachability problem no matter which single hand you try holding the Duo in. It’s better to hold it in your right hand than left, reachability-wise, but fundamentally it’s so wide that it’s a two-handed device even when being used folded.
No, the problem with holding the Duo in your left hand alone is that the bottom left corner of its D-shaped frame digs into your palm. When you hold it in your right hand, it’s a nice round corner in the meat of your thumb’s base. In your left, it’s a crisp sharp corner, and it doesn’t feel good.
When using the small outer display, everything on screen feels cramped. I don’t even like the home screen. Moving the Dock to the right side breaks 19 years of spatial memory for me.2 I keep reaching for Messages, Notes, and Safari down at the bottom of my screen, when now they’re over on the right. And they look weird too, because they’re smaller icons than the others on the home screen. Ostensibly the Dock is for your four most-used apps, but now they’re the smallest icons on your home screen? What sense does that make?
It’s such a little thing (no pun intended, I swear), but it exemplifies how many compromises Apple had to make for this small squat display.
Next, consider this screenshot from NetNewsWire:
What gets me here is the chevron “❮” back button being on the right. The iPhone’s back buttons have always been at the top left of the screen because iOS has always used a left-to-right column-view inspired spatial hierarchy. Craig Federighi just explained this spatial metaphor beautifully in a short YouTube interview a month ago. This metaphor is foundational to the iPhone experience. The back button is on the left because you go back to the left. Putting a button that takes you to the left on the right side of the screen just feels wrong. I think if I used an iPhone Duo every day for the next year (please no) I would still think this felt unnatural. It’s like having a turn signal stalk in your car that you move in the opposite direction that you turn the wheel. Now, it’s true that you can swipe from the left side of the screen to go back. You don’t have to use the “❮” button. But that button is there, in every single iPhone app that presents content in a hierarchy. And it’s always on the wrong side of the screen (unless you’re using an app on the left side of split screen multitasking — see below).
Here’s another example. Unforgetful is Marco Arment’s new reminders app. I like it a lot, and have been using it extensively since the summer. It’s properly updated to support the Duo UI layout. Here’s what it looks like when you’re creating a new task, normally:
But here’s what I saw over the weekend, when I was out running a Vonnegut errand, listening to The Vergecast:
I spent almost an entire minute trying to figure out how to save this task. I was about to text Arment with a bug report, that new tasks were unsaveable on the Duo, when I realized what happened. Because I had a Live Activity showing for the podcast I was listening to (in Arment’s Overcast, natch), the system’s time and circular status indicator were pushed down, reducing Unforgetful’s toolbar area, which meant the two buttons, “✕” and “✓” (for Close and Done, respectively), were collapsed into a single “···” overflow button. Tapping the dot-dot-dot button reveals them:
So the outer Duo display is so cramped when the keyboard is on screen that with a Live Activity showing, there is no longer room for a single pair of toolbar buttons. That turns a lot of one-tap actions into two-tap actions. And initially at least, it’s confusing. The whole point of Unforgetful is that it is not a complicated app. It really took me a minute to figure out that the Done button had moved into the “···” overflow menu.
One more examination of screen real estate, this time, with Messages, with the on-screen keyboard open. How much of the current conversation can you see?
The Duo outer display has only a smidgeon of real estate available for showing previous messages. It’s a bit like using an ancient BlackBerry. The Duo inner display in horizontal mode doesn’t show much more, but all you need to do to see more is rotate the device (which makes it easier for thumb-typing anyway).
Once the Duo is unfolded and unlocked (more on that below), it’s a terrific experience. I absolutely love the nano-texture finish. I love how it looks, and I love how it feels.
At the outset of this review, I opened with a list of obvious problems for any foldable device. I omitted the one vexing problem that Apple has solved: annoyance at a visible crease. They solved it by applying this nano-texture finish (which apparently is an easily replaceable surface layer). But it’s not like this is a trade-off that makes the display look bad or feel weird. I’d love a display that looks and feels like this on my non-foldable iPhone 18 Pro. No glare, even in sunlight. It’s amazing. There’s no accounting for taste — some people love glossy reflective displays that draw glare from any and all light sources. Not me.
No foldable phone on the market had a matte inner display until the Duo. I suspect most of them will next year, and by 2028 all of them will.
I mentioned above how close the open Duo is to the size and weight of an iPad Mini (a little smaller in size, but 15 percent lighter in weight). It just feels like a great little tablet, and this general size class has always been great for reading. Most Kindles and other e-ink readers are about this same size. I love reading on the Duo inner screen, vertically.
The Duo is great horizontally too. One obvious use case is video. Watching video, it’s easy to forget it’s an iPhone, not an iPad. Here’s as good a place as any to mention that the Duo’s speakers are great. Loud and separated. It produces surprisingly good sound for such a thin device.
Held horizontally, the iPhone Duo supports side-by-side multitasking with two apps. The user interface for this feature is brilliant. It puts every idea Apple has tried on iPadOS for multitasking to shame.
From 2010 to 2015, the iPad behaved like a big iPhone, showing only one app at a time on screen. This was limiting, yes, but delightfully simple and obvious. In 2015 with iOS 9 (this was before Apple renamed the iPad’s variant of iOS to “iPadOS”), Apple introduced both Slide Over and Split View. Both of them stunk. They stunk so bad that if you gave them a ride, you’d have to sell your car afterward. They were confusing and unintuitive. Slide Over in particular was often invoked accidentally and users couldn’t figure out how to get rid of it.
Even the newest iPads of the time (iPad Air 2, iPad Mini 4) still had Home buttons — the all-screen design without a Home button wouldn’t arrive until the iPhone X debuted in 2017, and it didn’t arrive for iPads until the late 2018 iPads Pro. The Home button was the key to all iOS interaction at the time. To launch an app, you tapped its icon on your home screen. To go back to your home screen, you clicked the Home button. You double-clicked the Home button to enter the app switcher. If you think about it, you can see how the Home-button-centric iPad hardware was incompatible with the idea of split-screen multitasking. Once you have two apps on screen at the same time, how can you control them with just one clickable Home button? What if you had, say, Notes on the left and Safari on the right, and you wanted to close Notes and replace it with Mail, while keeping Safari open on the right? How could the system know which one you wanted to close when you clicked the one Home button? The answer is it couldn’t. So Apple devised all sorts of other convoluted ways to manage this. I don’t even remember how it worked except that it was confusing and frustrating. Re-reading this old iPad developer documentation makes it seem even more unintuitive than I remember.
I was about to quip that whoever at Apple designed and approved of these multitasking UIs set the entire iPad platform back by a decade. Then I realized that, actually, it was more than a decade. The iPhone Duo is debuting 11 years after iOS 9’s terrible iPad multitasking, and only now has Apple designed and implemented a split-screen multitasking interface that is actually good. Split screen on the Duo is intuitive, natural, useful, and mostly obvious. In addition to all those accolades regarding how you purposely invoke and use it, it also is an interface that you seem unlikely ever to get into accidentally. Comparing the multitasking UI on the Duo to the iPad is like comparing the Mac to Windows — one is insanely great, the other a dog wearing a necktie pretending to be a person. Apple should throw out iPadOS’s multitasking interface and switch to this one. Honestly I’d prefer if they just threw out iPadOS and went back to running iOS — this new version of iOS created for the Duo — on iPads. The Duo flavor of iOS is a better tablet OS than iPadOS, Apple’s dedicated tablet OS.
On the Duo, split screen is only available when the device is horizontal. It’s always split 50-50. Each side of the screen gets an app that is basically the size of an app open on the outer display. Elegant. To move an app into split view, you drag the home indicator up from the bottom of the screen — the same gesture that takes you back to the home screen. But instead of letting go, you keep dragging. You get this:
Those shelves on the left and right are drop targets. Drag and drop the current app to either side to put it there and enter split screen. The other side of the display just shows you a single-screen home screen:
To open an app on that second screen, you just tap it. There is no step 2. Once you enter split screen mode, it’s like having two closed Duos side-by-side, except the left-side one is a reverse D shape. When the left side is open you can see that the Duo toolbar/Dock bias is not “put it on the right side”. It’s “put it on the outer side”. It just so happens that on the outer display, the right side is the outer side (with rounded corners, away from the spine). Open a second app, and that app’s toolbar will go on the left, if the app is on the left:
Each side of split screen acts like its own iPhone Duo. Drag up from the bottom of a side and you can go back to the home screen on that side. Or, as shown above, you can enter the multitasking switcher interface on that side — and it’s smart enough not to show you the app that is already open on the other side. Drag up from the bottom center and you return to the full-screen home screen or full-screen app switcher. Whatever you think ought to work, probably works. That’s intuitive design.
There is more to explore and think about here. These are not “windows”. But you can open the same app on both sides, like to show two Safari pages side-by-side. What this split screen UI gets fundamentally right is that it works exactly like using the iPhone for one-app-at-a-time launching and switching. The iPad’s original split-screen sin was trying to implement multiple apps on screen at the same time when the iPad still used a hardware Home button. With the modern iOS UI, where the physical Home button has been replaced by virtual on-screen home indicator bars, you can go from one home indicator (when there’s only one full-screen app) to three: one for the app on the left, one for the app on the right, and a third in the center to control them both as a pair. It’s so brilliant that most users won’t notice that there’s anything clever about the design at all. They’ll just use it. That’s the highest praise for an interaction design like this. It seems so obvious that it doesn’t seem designed at all.
Ironically, because iPhone Duo is not called an “iPad”, it gets to be what the iPad should’ve been all along.
The biggest problem I have with using the Duo on the inner display is an incorrect intuition that, after a full week of use, I am only now starting to break. What do you do when you’re done with a book for now? You close it. So what do I do when I’m done using the iPhone Duo, unfolded, before putting it in my pocket? I close it. But that doesn’t lock the Duo. It just switches to the outer display. I feel like I’ve done this a hundred times in the last week. I close it, thinking that I’ve locked it, and I put it away. But it’s still open. It eventually locks — perhaps sometimes quicker than you think. (iPhones have long used a bit of machine learning to try to detect when they’ve been pocketed or pursed while unlocked, and lock themselves before the normal auto-lock timeout.) Nothing bad has happened from doing this. But I’ve opened it up to some odd things on screen. This is not a complaint about Apple’s design, because when you want to switch from using the inner display to the outer display, you should be able to just close it. The iPhone Duo can’t read your mind. But I wish it could read my mind.
The lack of Face ID on the iPhone Duo is an endless unceasing frustration. I’ll just farm this section out to what I wrote back on September 15, days after the Duo was announced, in my thoughts and observations column on Apple’s event announcements:
The lack of Face ID is a serious sad-trombone bummer, and in my opinion could sink the first-generation model. Side-button Touch ID is OK, but OK is not good, and even good is not insanely great. Face ID is insanely great. For whatever reason, the only iPads with Face ID are the iPad Pro models. Every time I review an iPad Air or iPad Mini, my biggest gripe is the lack of Face ID. I complained about it reviewing the iPad Air in 2022 and the iPad Mini in 2021, and in the five years since then my annoyance has only grown. With Face ID, so long as you’re looking at the screen as you unlock the device, it’s like not having it locked at all. It just unlocks, seemingly automatically. With Touch ID you must think about putting one of your registered fingers on the button every single time you unlock it. It never ever feels automatic. I feel quite certain Apple tried to fit a Face ID sensor on the outer Duo display and could not make the engineering work.
I’m much more concerned about convenience than security, but Face ID is 20× more secure than Touch ID. That’s according to Apple’s own Apple Platform Security whitepaper, updated just last month, which states:
The probability that a random person in the population could unlock a user’s iPad, iPhone, or Apple Vision Pro is less than 1 in 1 million with Optic ID or Face ID — including when Face ID with a mask is turned on. For a user’s iPad, iPhone, Mac models with Touch ID, and those paired with a Magic Keyboard with Touch ID, it’s less than 1 in 50,000. This probability increases with multiple enrolled fingerprints (up to 1 in 10,000 with five fingerprints) or appearances for Face ID (up to 1 in 500,000 with two appearances).
As a sign of how inconvenient the lack of Face ID is, Apple is promoting the fact that the iPhone Duo can be unlocked by your Apple Watch, like a Mac. No other iPhone needs such a crutch. Based on my experience with Touch ID iPads, wearing an Apple Watch all the time to unlock the Duo will feel essential. I don’t wear an Apple Watch all the time, and don’t want to start wearing an Apple Watch all the time, so I suspect this alone will keep me from switching to an iPhone Duo personally. On the other hand, for people who do wear an Apple Watch all the time and are happy to do so, the Duo’s lack of Face ID might prove to be only an occasional inconvenience rather than a constant annoyance.
I’ve seldom been more prescient. More than anything else about the Duo experience, I despise the lack of Face ID. It is a dealbreaker for me. I’ll reconsider a future model that at least has Face ID on the front outer display, but I have no plans to purchase this one. I tried to keep track in my pocket Field Notes notebook of how many times I had to be told to authenticate with Touch ID, along with a separate tally of how many times I had to enter my full device passcode in situations where I know I would not have with an iPhone uno, and I ran out of space on the sheet of paper. If you are not wearing an Apple Watch, it is an unceasing frustration.
Apple actually made a TV commercial exemplifying the Touch ID experience on iPhone Duo 20 years ago, as part of the “Get a Mac” campaign with John Hodgman and Justin Long. Here, you can watch it on YouTube. Over and over and over, seemingly 20,000 times a day: put your goddamn finger on the Touch ID button.
Now, if you do wear an Apple Watch, and you pair it with your iPhone Duo, and you enable the off-by-default setting to allow your watch to unlock your Duo, this is much better. It’s not good, but it’s at least tolerable. If you have multiple iPhones though, this feature only works if your watch is paired with your Duo. This is a fundamental shortcoming in the architecture of WatchOS. Apple Watch should be like AirPods, where it just pairs on-the-fly with whatever device you’re currently using, so long as they’re signed into the same Apple Account. You don’t have to pair your AirPods to one single device and then completely factory reset them to use with another. AirPods wouldn’t be a hit product if that were true. But that’s how Apple Watch works. It’s true that most people only own one iPhone, but the existence of the iPhone Handoff feature is proof that Apple is thinking about the fact that some of us own more than one. If one of them is a Duo, you will want to pair your Apple Watch with the Duo. But that means that with iPhone Handoff, your Apple Watch won’t share a cellular connection when you’re using your other iPhone. Cellular carriers are now more adept at seamlessly dealing with multiple iPhones than Apple’s own watch. It’s a complete mess of Apple’s own making.
The unlock-with-Apple-Watch feature doesn’t work all the time for me. When it does work, you know it, because you get a tap on your wrist from the watch every time your Duo unlocks via the nearby watch. But sometimes, even though I haven’t taken my watch off since it last unlocked the Duo, it doesn’t work, and I have to use Touch ID. Oftentimes, for reasons I do not understand, Touch ID isn’t enough, and I have to enter my passcode. I think it’s because I so often inadvertently press the side and Camera Control buttons while folding and unfolding the Duo — that might put it in a state where it wants to authenticate the most secure way possible, with my passcode.
It’s mildly annoying that your Apple Watch taps your wrist every time it automatically unlocks your Duo (dozens and dozens of taps per day, every day), but it’s obviously a good thing that it does. It obviously is less secure than Face ID or even Touch ID. I handed the Duo to my son to play with the hinge over the weekend, and as soon as he started playing with it, my wrist tapped. Oops, the whole iPhone was unlocked for him. That was no big deal, and in fact we shared a laugh about it. But it couldn’t happen with Face ID or Touch ID. (It’s worth noting that the wrist tap on your watch for this gives you a button to tap to lock your iPhone immediately — it’s not just a notification that it happened, it presents you with an action to undo it.)
There’s also an optional feature where you can unlock the Duo just by “resting” a registered finger on the Touch ID button. This does add a touch of convenience (again, I swear no pun intended), when I remember to do it, but this too doesn’t seem to work all the time. My theory is that sometimes I’m resting my finger on the button and the sensor doesn’t think the finger is a match. Other times, I wind up unlocking the Duo inadvertently, just by holding it with my thumb on the button. I never ever unlock my iPhone Pros accidentally. With the Duo, it happens at least once a day.
The only tolerable way to use the Duo is by always wearing an Apple Watch, and enabling the feature to allow the watch to unlock it. I do not want to wear an Apple Watch all day every day. And it seems ridiculous that that’s the only way to make the Duo experience tolerable. As annoying as it is to use an iPad with a Touch ID button, it’s far more annoying to use an iPhone with one, because I unlock my iPhone at least an order of magnitude more frequently than I do my iPad.
I’ll reconsider a future Duo model that at least has Face ID on the outside, but I don’t think I’ll ever truly enjoy the experience of using one unless it has Face ID on both sides. I can’t wait to finish writing this review, switch my eSIM back to my iPhone 18 Pro, and set this Duo aside on my desk. I don’t think Apple should have released the Duo before they figured this out.
My Touch ID complaints are exacerbated by the fact that, from an experiential standpoint, the side button keeps moving around. When the Duo is closed, button placement isn’t a problem. But when it’s open, the buttons feel wrongly placed. On a Touch ID iPad, held vertically, the button is on the top on the right side. And from there, to switch to horizontal orientation, you rotate it counterclockwise, which moves the Touch ID button to the left side, at the top. But this is all backwards on the Duo. Held open vertically, the Duo’s Touch ID button is on the top on the left side. And you have to rotate it clockwise to get it back to horizontal. I’ve gotten more used to it after a week, but while using the big inner display, whenever I’m pestered to authenticate with Touch ID — which, again, is all the time — there’s also a moment of “Wait, where is the Touch ID button?” Many times throughout the week, while holding it vertically, the Touch ID button has been on the bottom, because my instincts for how to rotate it from horizontal to vertical and vice-versa are backwards from how the Duo intends. It’s like the Duo has a built-in game called “Where Are the Buttons?”, and it’s not a fun game.
The main camera orientation is more frustrating, and I consider it a mistake. The main camera is aligned with the small outer display. When you’re capturing photos or videos using the outer display, you hold the Duo horizontally to capture horizontal images, and hold it vertically to capture vertical images. But when you open the Duo, the camera sensor doesn’t magically rotate. So when you’re using the big inner display, you capture horizontal images when holding the Duo vertically, and vertical images when holding the device horizontally.
You can’t have it both ways. Apple needed to choose which display to align the camera with. Apple reps told me they chose to align it with the outer display because they think that’s the display users will use most often when using the camera. They’re probably right that the outer display will be used most frequently with the camera, so maybe they made the correct decision here. But my gut feeling is they should have aligned the camera the other way. Let the outer display have the reverse camera orientation. That would feel like an old Flip camera from 20 years ago — a small handheld camera that you held vertically to capture horizontally. Who cares if the viewfinder doesn’t fill the screen, the screen is tiny anyway.
It just seems weird to me that you can open the Duo to have a truly huge viewfinder, and there’s no way to fill it. Here’s Apple’s own Camera app, when the Duo is open vertically, open horizontally, and closed:
So with the big inner screen, you can never come close to filling the screen with the image you’re trying to capture. You get thick black letterboxing or pillarboxing. The viewfinder preview is roughly the same size on the inner screen as the outer screen, despite the inner screen being twice the size. This doesn’t make sense to me. I would prefer a tiny preview on the small outer display and a huge preview on the large inner display, with the camera sensors aligned with the inner display.
Also, because the outer screen is a different aspect ratio than the camera sensor (1.44 : 1 display; 1.33 : 1 sensor), photos taken using the outer screen capture a slightly larger image than what is shown in the viewfinder. That’s because the outer screen viewfinder presents a full-screen preview, which forces all of the Camera app controls to overlay the preview image. In the screenshot above showing the Camera app on the outer display, the actual photograph from that perspective includes part of the painting frame, even though you cannot see any of the frame in the preview. Here’s the photo I snapped with that preview. This discrepancy between the viewfinder and the actual captured image is not a huge deal — it’s OK to capture more than the viewfinder shows — but it’s worth being aware of.
As for the camera itself, it’s terrific. It’s clearly not of the same caliber as the iPhone 18 Pro, but it’s good. The technical specs of the Duo’s main 1×/2× camera are nearly identical to those of the year-ago iPhone Air, and I love the iPhone Air’s camera. If anything, the Duo’s camera should be better, because it gets the year-better A20 Pro imaging pipeline. Which, notably, brings support for the same new Photographic Styles, including textures like film grain, that were introduced with the iPhone 18 Pro. However, the Duo is not “Pro” — it does not get features like “Pro controls” (variable lens aperture, shutter speed, white balance, histogram), Apple Reference Image, spatial video, ProRES (video or RAW), or Apple Log. Apple’s “shot with iPhone” keynotes will continue to use iPhones Pro.
Also, notably different from the Air, the Duo has an ultrawide 0.5× second camera lens. This brings both the ultrawide perspective and macro photography. Like the Air, the Duo’s main 1× camera has a minimum focus distance of 15cm. That’s closer than the 17 and 18 Pro cameras (20cm), but there are a lot of times you want to snap photos of receipts or documents closer than 15cm. With the Air, you can’t focus closer than 15cm, because it only has that one camera. With the Duo, you can focus on subjects down to just 2cm away, using the 0.5× lens or the 1× lens in “macro” mode (which switches to the ultrawide lens but sensor-crops to the 1× field of view).
Build quality of the Duo seems nothing short of excellent. It’s solid. It has a satisfying feel opening and closing, and it closes with a particularly pleasing snap. When it’s open it stays open and perfectly flat. When it’s closed it stays closed, with no gap. However, if forced to choose between the verbs flip and pry to describe the force necessary to open it, the more accurate verb is pry. You need two hands for sure and you kind of need to get your fingernail in the gap. It’s also tricky to open or close without inadvertently pressing the side or Camera Control buttons. I wind up clicking both of these buttons all the time, and sometimes it messes things up. I’ve snapped four accidental photos with the Camera Control button while trying to close (or open? not sure) the Duo in one week. I have zero such photos from the last 30 days taken with my iPhone 18 Pro. At least one of these even looks obscene at thumbnail scale, which gave me a momentary jolt when I saw it in my camera roll:
There’s a subtle plastic lip around the inner display. This keeps the corners of the display from smacking into each other when you close it, and in practice while the Duo is open, this lip actually feels good to the touch, not like an unwanted barrier.
The same cannot be said for Apple’s $80 first-party silicone case. I can’t believe anyone will want to use this. It adds such a big lip to the outer display that you need to go into Settings → Display & Brightness and turn on a special option: “Shift Left Edge”, which shrinks the front display away from the left edge. It even requires glue to keep it attached. The adhesive is not particularly sticky — you can pop it right off — but I mean, come on. This contraption is ridiculous. I’ve never been a regular case user with my iPhones and I think people worry needlessly about scratches, especially now with Apple’s Ceramic Shield 2. I firmly believe that putting a case on your phone makes you more likely to drop it because you’re less likely to be careful with it. But foldable phones in particular seem inherently incompatible with cases that are subtle rather than obtrusively prophylactic.
Apple’s $130 folio case is better. It’s made with Apple’s “TechWoven” fabric, which has a good high-quality feel. It’s got a kickstand that I guess might be convenient at times, but I don’t understand the lifestyle where you want to open a cover just to see the front face of your phone every time you use it. Also, it’s $130.
Live a little, I say. If you buy a Duo, try it without a case. Get AppleCare if you’re the nervous sort.
Using apps that haven’t been updated for the iOS 27.0 SDK is a terrible experience. They just look like little virtual iPhone Minis floating in a sea of black on the big inner display. You can zoom them, like the old “2×” button on iPads when running iPhone apps, but that stinks too. Apps that have been compiled for the 27 SDK but haven’t yet updated to the new Duo-specific APIs in the 27.1 SDK are ... OK. But even some of them blow. Take a look at the NYT Games app, and its custom crossword keyboard — it needs an orthodontist. Most of my favorite apps have already been properly updated for the Duo. Some, however, like Tapbots’s Ivory, have not. Your bank probably won’t support the Duo until the Duo 2 is out next year. I think Apple has clearly done a great job evangelizing developers to support the Duo properly. Netflix does and it’s really cool. WhatsApp is in that middle state, where because it’s been compiled with the 27 SDK, it at least fills the inner screen, but it’s just a scaled regular iPhone layout. Signal, which has always been a particularly crummy app, is one of the turds that looks like an iPhone Mini floating in a sea of black.
[Update, Thursday: One day later and there’s an updated version of the NYT Games app, and they’ve fixed the orthodontic mess of their crossword keyboard, in both orientations. Screenshot. This goes to show just how fast the Duo-optimized updates are streaming in from developers. My review was up-to-date when I published at 7:00pm ET Wednesday, and outdated by the time I woke up Thursday morning.]
Last night I wanted to watch the Sixers beat the Knicks in their NBA season opener while I worked on this review. I had to use the NBC Sports app, which has not been updated for the Duo at all. The experience sucked. I could pop video out of the mini window to play sort of full-screen, but whenever I tapped the display it went back to iPhone Mini mode. The only good experience you can have using the iPhone Duo is with apps that have been updated for it. It’s better than nothing that un-updated apps run at all, but they certainly don’t deliver a premium $2,000-phone experience.
Using the iPhone Duo for this last week, in particular, has been fascinating in this regard. When I first got the Duo set up last Tuesday, very few of my third-party apps properly supported it. The ones that did were mostly ones where I was already a beta tester through TestFlight. As the week wore on, more and more apps with proper or at least semi-proper Duo support began appearing in the App Store. This made a huge difference to my pleasure using the device. By the time the very first Duo shipments reach actual customers this Friday, there will be more updated apps than there are today. It makes such a huge difference. I honestly don’t know how folks at Apple who’ve been privately testing the Duo for months before this managed to keep their sanity, unless they just eschewed third-party apps while testing it over the summer.
When you pair an external Bluetooth keyboard with the Duo, Command-Tab doesn’t do anything. I actually like pairing a hardware keyboard with my iPhone unos, for writing notes and Journal entries while I drink coffee in the morning. For years I’ve wished that iOS supported Command-Tab like iPadOS does. With the Duo, this seems like a glaring omission.3 The Duo plus a portable Bluetooth keyboard seems like an amazing travel or commute combination.
Standby mode (folded like a tent) is cool. In addition to Apple’s built-in clock/calendar/photo screens that you can swipe between in this mode, if you have a Live Activity going, you can tap the Live Activity’s small icon at the top in Standby mode and make the Live Activity take the full screen. “Laptop mode” is cool too, for apps like Netflix, so you can watch video on half of the inner display while the device is folded like an L.
There are so many nice little touches in iOS to support the Duo. Even the factory-fresh onboarding experience lets you fold and unfold it while you’re turning it on and setting it up. One of my favorite details is that when you rotate the Duo while on the home screen, the Dock doesn’t just move from the bottom (vertically) to the right (horizontally). Instead, it disappears and reappears, sliding in from off-screen in its new position. It reminds me of Pac-Man’s warp tunnel.
Battery life has been very good for me. No problem getting through a heavy day of usage at all.
The Duo often gets warm. Not hot, but noticeably warm. My instincts say “warm phone = bad for battery life”, but, per the previous item in this list, battery life is fine. There might be some use cases I haven’t spent much time trying, like graphics-intensive games, where thermals are a problem. But I didn’t run into them.
iOS 27.1 is a little buggy. Sometimes when I’m rotating the device using the inner display, apps get zoomed in too big, as though they think they’re on the small outer display or something. Tapping around or folding/unfolding again clears it up. I ran into one really weird rendering glitch, on Thursday night last week. I noticed what I first thought was a smear of schmutz on the crease. I tried to rub it away but it didn’t help. I thought for a few minutes that the display was breaking, coming detached right at the crease. But I only saw the smear when holding the Duo vertically. Horizontally it vanished. Here’s a screenshot showing it — look at the words “strode to the plate” in the first line of the second paragraph. If you zoom in, you can see that it’s actually a capsule-shaped overlay atop the text. Here’s a video screen recording of it while I scroll the article. This glitch was visible in the exact same position on screen — right on the 50-yard-line of the crease — in every single app I used while holding the Duo vertically. I took some screenshots and went to bed, without restarting the Duo. When I woke up Friday morning, the glitch was gone. I haven’t seen it, or anything like it, again. My theory is that I triggered it playing around that night with different “poses” for the Duo, including a bunch where I had it in an L- or V-shape, which in many apps puts a purposeful blur across the crease.
The Duo comes in two colors: star light (off white) and night sky (very dark blue). My review unit is star light. It looks good. I’d buy night sky if I were going to buy one, which I’m not.
Pricing:
| 256 GB | 512 GB | 1 TB | 2 TB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Pro | $1,200 | $1,400 | $1,800 | $2,400 |
| 18 Pro Max | $1,300 | $1,500 | $1,900 | $2,500 |
| Duo | $2,000 | $2,200 | $2,600 | $3,200 |
At every storage tier, it’s $800 more than an 18 Pro and $700 more than an 18 Pro Max.
Every time you pick up the Duo to use it you face The Decision. Open it? Or be lazy and suffer with the outside display? Every time. Even if you get used to all the other things, you’ll always face The Decision, every time you pick up the Duo.
And there’s a third option. Just after writing the preceding paragraph, I took a break to pick up some sandwiches for lunch. Get out of the house, enjoy at least a few minutes of a beautiful autumn afternoon, and stretch my legs. Waiting for the sandwiches to be prepared at the bagel joint, I took the Duo out of my pocket and checked NetNewsWire. First article up was a good one. Started reading. Screen’s too small. Do I want to open the Duo? Sandwiches aren’t going to take long. I clicked the side button to sleep the Duo and put it back into my jeans pocket (where it sank like the brick that it is). I spent the rest of the wait alone with my thoughts, pondering how to finish this review.
Apple isn’t going to start an ad campaign with a slogan like “So cumbersome you’ll keep it in your pocket”, but that’s part of my experience. If you really want to do something, or sit back and read or watch something, the big display is fantastic. But that Duo-as-tablet experience is so cumbersome compared to the “just look at it” experience of using a regular iPhone uno that you simply cannot do it every time you use the Duo. You will use the outer display quite a bit. And using the outer display delivers the worst iPhone experience ever. I mean, some iPhone has to be the one that offered the worst iPhone experience ever. That iPhone is the outer half of the iPhone Duo. Perhaps for some people looking to be more mindful of their screen time, this is actually a selling point.
Here’s my steelman argument for the Duo. iPads are good devices. Almost everyone likes them, and many people love them. But wouldn’t it be better if you could fold an iPad in half to make it more portable? The answer has to be yes — if that foldability did not saddle the device with an ugly visible crease in the display. Folding in half would be a nice trick for any iPad, but especially the iPad Mini. An iPad Air folded in half would fit in more compartments in your backpack, but it would not fit in your pants. An iPad Mini folded in half would. Wouldn’t it be even better if Apple added a small screen to the outside of this hypothetical foldable iPad Mini we’re imagining? That way, even when folded, you could check the time, see recent notifications, and pay attention to Live Activities. That sounds like a great idea, right? Well, that’s the iPhone Duo.
If you’d rather trade your iPhone for an iPad Mini that you can fold in half to carry around, the iPhone Duo might be the form factor for you. Even if that’s the case, though, this first iPhone Duo might not suit you, for all the various irritations and shortcomings I’ve documented above. Plus, an actual iPad Mini costs $800 for 256 GB of storage (at this writing); an iPhone Duo with 256 GB costs a cool $2000.
It’s been a lot of fun trying the Duo out for a week, but it feels like I’ve gotten to use an extraordinarily polished prototype — not a finished product that I’d want to buy and carry.
I thought about referring to the Duo variant of iOS 27 as “DuOS”, which seemed clever in my mind, but looked stupid as hell the first time I tried typing it. “DuoOS” isn’t much better. So I’ll go with “iOS Duo” as shorthand for now. ↩︎
I’ve kept a consistent Dock arrangement on my iPhone for as long as I can remember. From left to right: Messages, my notes app, Safari, and my “what’s new?” app. My notes app originally was Apple Notes, then Simplenote, then Vesper (duh), and ever since Vesper’s demise, Apple Notes again. My “what’s new?” app (which, if I’m being honest, might better be described as my “I’m bored” app) was Twitterrific, then Tweetie, then Twitter, then Tweetbot, then Ivory. Several months ago I prioritized RSS over all social media platforms, and moved NetNewsWire down there. I don’t check any Twitter-like social networks until I feel caught up on RSS, which means I often don’t check them at all. I’m at least a little happier for it, and I know I’m more productive. ↩︎︎
Also, with an iPhone uno, when you pair a hardware keyboard, you can use Command-H to go to the home screen. That doesn’t work on the Duo. I don’t know if that’s a bug or a design concession for the fact that with split screen multitasking, “go to the home screen” can’t be a single command. You might want to go home on the left, on the right, or full screen. Swiping on screen makes those actions unambiguous. Command-H would not. If you think about it, this is actually very similar to the conundrum I mention elsewhere in this review, regarding the incoherency of Apple’s decade of attempts to bring split-screen multitasking to the iPad in the Home button era. I think with a paired keyboard, however, Command-H should just always take you back to the full-screen home screen. Make it go all the way home, not just halfway home. ↩︎︎
Roden Readers —
Hello from the other side of hiding in Europe during Japan’s extended summer / record-breakingly rainy September. It is I, Modo-san.
I was working on a book in London. And then co-leading a Walk and Talk in Norway. And then participating in an artist retreat in Italy. Erroneously, I thought we had been approaching “layers season” in Tokyo. False alarm. It’s 29℃ and about 80% humidity today. American tourists are still in shorts. One day soon a sweater might be worn in this great city without sweaty regret. But that day is not today.
Up, and by and by comes my brother Tom to me, though late (which do vex me to the blood that I could never get him to come time enough to me, though I have spoke a hundred times; but he is very sluggish, and too negligent ever to do well at his trade I doubt), and having lately considered with my wife very much of the inconvenience of my going in no better plight, we did resolve of putting me into a better garb, and, among other things, to have a good velvet cloake; that is, of cloth lined with velvet and other things modish, and a perruque, and so I sent him and her out to buy me velvet, and I to the Exchange, and so to Trinity House, and there dined with Sir W. Batten, having some business to speak with him, and Sir W. Rider. Thence, having my belly full, away on foot to my brother’s, all along Thames Streete, and my belly being full of small beer, I did all alone, for health’s sake, drink half a pint of Rhenish wine at the Still-yard, mixed with beer.
From my brother’s with my wife to the Exchange, to buy things for her and myself, I being in a humour of laying out money, but not prodigally, but only in clothes, which I every day see that I suffer for want of, I so home, and after a little at my office, home to supper and to bed.
Memorandum: This morning one Mr. Commander, a scrivener, came to me from Mr. Moore with a deed of which. Mr. Moore had told me, that my Lord had made use of my name, and that I was desired by my Lord to sign it. Remembering this very well, though understanding little of the particulars, I read it over, and found it concern Sir Robt. Bernard and Duckinford, their interest in the manor of Brampton. So I did sign it, declaring to Mr. Commander that I am only concerned in having my name at my Lord Sandwich’s desire used therein, and so I sealed it up after I had signed and sealed the deed, and desired him to give it so sealed to Mr. Moore. I did also call at the Wardrobe this afternoon to have told Mr. Moore of it, but he was not within, but knowing Mr. Commander to have the esteem of a good and honest man with my Lord Crew, I did not doubt to intrust him with the deed after I had signed it.
This evening after I came home I begun to enter my wife in arithmetique, in order to her studying of the globes, and she takes it very well, and, I hope, with great pleasure, I shall bring her to understand many fine things.
Today's PHP Security Release, and How We're Strengthening PHP Security
If you're running anything on PHP it's vital you upgrade - today's updates (across the entire PHP 8.x line) address two remote code execution holes, and there have been exploits circulating since last night, thanks to a leak in the coordinated disclosure process.This post from the PHP Foundation explain what went so wrong:
On Tuesday, October 20th, at around 15:00 UTC, the two CVE IDs began circulating on online forums and social media. They came with a wrong release time and a wrong CVSS score of 10.0 (the actual score is 9.2). No technical details leaked. In response, the PHP project brought its pre-announcement forward and published it at 19:30 UTC. It also moved the release from October 22nd, 14:00 UTC, to October 21st, 14:00 UTC [...]
As a result of the leak and pre-announcement around 20:00 UTC, Calif, one of the security firms that had reported the issues mistakenly published a video. It showed their proof of concept working against a number of targets and revealed a few additional, though limited, details about the vulnerabilities. Copies of the deleted video started circulating on social media soon after. The video contributed to accelerated development of various PoCs (exploitation proof of concepts), which then increased circulation on October 21st.
This article from the team that discovered the original vulnerability includes a more detailed timeline of the original intended responsible disclosure:
- August 19, 2026: Wiz Research discovers the first PHP vulnerability using Wiz Atlas, Gemini 4 Argon, and GPT-5.6 Sol.
- August 20, 2026: Unauthenticated RCE is confirmed against Drupal.
- August 21, 2026: Unauthenticated RCE is confirmed against WordPress.
- August 24, 2026: Wiz Research reports the vulnerabilities to the PHP security team.
- September 21, 2026: PHP acknowledges the reports and begins developing a coordinated fix.
- October 21, 2026: Patched PHP releases become available.
- October 21, 2026: Public disclosure.
Via Hacker News
Tags: open-source, php, security, ai, ai-security-research
Panache — RTS Belle Époque pour mobile
Well this is delightful: I released Battle Drones yesterday under an Apache 2.0 License and there's already a French language fork which reskins the game to take place in steampunk 1900s France and adds an animated intro!Panache est un jeu de stratégie en temps réel pour mobile et navigateur, dans la France de la Belle Époque (vers 1900) : dirigeables, Fardiers à vapeur, Creusot cuirassés, automates en képi, Gargantua la forteresse marchante — et beaucoup de panache.
You can play Panache here - it's worth clicking that link just to experience the new intro video.
So far it's mostly just aesthetic updates as opposed to gameplay changes. The music has had a French twist added to it as well.
The new steampunk models are so cool!

Here's a page with the original Battle Drones models and that same page with the new Panache alternatives.
This is a comparison of the original and the new design for the Goliath:
Via @Meffysto69
Tags: game-design, open-source
eMudhra Intermediate CA Compromise
This is very, very bad news:The private keys of eight eMudhra intermediate CA certificates have been compromised. They chain to roots trusted by the Mozilla, Microsoft, Apple and Chrome root programs and by many downstream trust stores.
Any software that bundles a list of trusted certificates needs to be updated. This site is tracking software updates via this GitHub repository - Linux distros need to update their ca-certificates packages.
In Python world uv 0.13.4 and pip 26.2.2 and certifi 2026.10.19 have been released with upgraded certificate lists.
There's a very informative thread about this on the official Python forum.
We’re heading into fighter jet territory this week with Zach Shore (CEO) and A.J. Piplica (Co-Founder and Executive Chairman) of Hermeus.
Founded in 2018, Hermeus has set out to make supersonic and even hypersonic jets that can fly themselves. They’re part of this new wave of defense startups trying to prove that the U.S. can still produce technological marvels in a timely and not criminally expensive fashion. Hermeus’s planes would be a new breed of fighter jets that can use their speed and autonomy to carry out missions without putting pilots at risk.
We conducted this interview with Shore and Piplica a couple of months back at Spaceport America just ahead of a test flight of Hermeus’s Quarterhorse Mk 2.1 plane. I’m pleased to tell you that the plane did indeed go supersonic, and it was awesome to behold. We’ll have a video on the experience soon on our YouTube channel.
This interview covers Hermeus’s journey, the state of the U.S. defense industry, plane design and how the U.S. hopes to keep pace with China in areas like hypersonic flight.
Hermeus’s planes are remotely piloted for now, but it has partnered with Anduril to give its aircraft autonomous mission capabilities. For hypersonic flight, it’s developing a fascinating hybrid engine design intended to switch from a turbine to a ramjet midair.
Hermeus achieved supersonic flight on Mk 2.1’s third test flight and is betting it can keep building and testing new prototypes much faster than traditional defense contractors. You can see its planes and timelines here.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
3:39 Supersonic With Nobody Aboard
6:21 Building an Aircraft Company
17:02 From Turbines to Ramjets
22:18 The Unmanned Bomb Truck
30:25 Will Passengers Fly Hypersonic?
31:56 America's Flight Testing Bottleneck
40:08 Who Actually Flies It?
45:12 Rebuilding the Skunk Works
47:06 China and America's Aerospace Bet
On the eve of the midterm election, American families are feeling financially stressed As the chart above shows, the percentage of families who say that their financial situation is good has plunged. For the first time since the post-Covid inflation of 2022, it has fallen below the percentage who say that their financial situation is bad.
Rising prices are the obvious explanation for this stress. And while presidents usually have much less influence on the economy than is generally recognized, the current outbreak of high inflation is all on Donald Trump. He began this with two wars of choice: one, a trade war with his destructive tariffs, and then an unwinnable military war in the most important energy transit point in the world.
There is, however, a third factor behind Americans’ anger, and it isn’t getting nearly as much attention as it should. There has been a catastrophic decline in health insurance coverage combined with sharply rising premiums for many of those who have managed to hang on to their coverage. And this, too, is all on Trump.
Here’s what happened: Trump and his congressional minions refused to renew the expanded subsidies that had made health insurance affordable for millions of Americans during the Biden years. At the same time the One Big Beautiful Bill imposed punitive work requirements that made it far more difficult for families to obtain Medicaid coverage.
And we haven’t felt the full effect of these changes yet — Republicans tried to backload the effects of the OBBB so that much of the pain will come after the midterms. But the consequences of this attack on healthcare have already been dire.
By June 2026 enrollment in Medicaid and the Childrens’ Health Insurance Program had declined by more than 6 million since January 2025; 2.5 million of those losing coverage were children. KFF estimates that enrollment in individual plans, mainly via the Affordable Care Act, was down almost 5 million by June. The redoubtable Charles Gaba, putting these numbers together with other information, estimates that around 12 million Americans have lost health insurance under Trump 2.0.
That’s a lot of lost coverage, even in a nation as big as ours. And because many of the savage cuts Trump and his allies have imposed on healthcare have yet to kick in, the situation will get much worse in the years ahead. It’s worth noting thatkicking children off healthcare coverage is especially personally and socially destructive because it compromises their health and earnings potential for their entire lifetimes.
By the way, Trump, after all these years, is once again promising that he’ll come up with a “truly great” healthcare plan any day now. He’s now saying that he’ll send money directly to Americans, stopping payments to insurance companies — thereby demonstrating that he still has no idea how insurance works.
In any case, we’re now in the midst of an enormous healthcare disaster — a disaster that is receiving surprisingly little media coverage with, as far as I can tell, no recent articles on massive coverage losses in any of the major newspapers. I know that there’s a lot going on, but this seems odd.
Voters, however, have noticed. KFF’s tracking poll finds that the cost of healthcare is near the top of voters’ economic worries:
As an overall issue, health care ranks second only to the overall cost of living — and above the Iran war:
This ongoing healthcare disaster is all on Trump and his party. And again, voters appear to have noticed, giving Democrats a large and growing edge on the issue:
So if there is a blue wave 13 days from now, it won’t just be the result of inflation and Trump’s vainglorious wars. It will also in part be the result of a quiet but massive healthcare disaster.
And ultimately, of course, the political implications are a secondary concern. What really matters is that Trump and his party have done all they can to deny healthcare to millions of Americans. They have done this partly to save money — not to reduce the budget deficit, but to make room for tax cuts for the wealthy. They have also done it out of sheer cruelty.
There are many terrible things happening in America right now, from the debacle in Iran to the depredations of ICE. But the healthcare disaster, which will ruin many people financially and in some cases kill Americans who can no longer afford essential care, deserves much more attention than it is getting.
No music today
The Free Press asked me to expand upon my views of this matter, here is one excerpt from the piece:
Third, fewer women in prison does not have to mean less deterrence overall, as arguably we should concentrate more of our legal resources on deterring violent men.
Note that if we can release enough women from prison, more prison space will be freed up, and I mean more prison space for men, including violent men. It is common to read of shortfalls in jail and prison space, which lead to violent men being released early. Many of these men go on to commit violent crimes, a truly major injustice. Or they commit an ongoing string of misdemeanors, sometimes ranging into the dozens or even hundreds, such as shoplifting or disorderly conduct. Our cities become much less livable as a result.
If we can, over time, convert some of the current prison space for women into prison space for men, especially violent and destructive men, I expect a net increase of justice in this country. I also think it will be a better country to live in.
There is precedent for such a conversion of facilities. In 2013, California turned the Valley State Prison for Women into a men’s prison, as the female prison population was declining and more space was needed to relieve overcrowding among the males.
As an economist might say, sending women to prison is not a free lunch. Given that prison space is scarce, it means the release of more violent criminals, mostly male.
Some reliance on prison is unavoidable. But it amazes me how much people will go to the mat to defend an institution — whole cloth at that — that makes no real sense in terms either humanitarian or even simply organizational.
The post More on Elizabeth Holmes and prison appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
WARNING: This post contains spoilers for the movie You Can See Everything.
A few days ago, I had the great pleasure of seeing Nathan Fielder’s new film, You Can See Everything. I’ve been a fan of Fielder’s work for a long time, so I basically knew what to expect, but it was still incredible — every bit as good as you’ve heard. Go see it if you haven’t.
The film is a documentary about the notorious fraudster Elizabeth Holmes (of Theranos fame) and her partner Billy Evans. But it’s also sort of a horror movie about liars. That was interesting enough that it made me want to write a post about the movie — about the nature of lying, and of belief, and of human communication in general.
If you read even a little bit about the history of Theranos, there is absolutely no question that Elizabeth Holmes is a deliberate fraudster and a prolific, aggressive liar. Holmes presented potential investors with fake financial results in 2015. She personally added fake logos of pharmaceutical companies to Theranos’ own reports. She flatly stated that Theranos didn’t dilute blood samples, then admitted in court that she intentionally concealed the fact that they did dilute blood samples. Theranos employees detailed the whole deliberate fraud in anonymous online posts years before the story broke.
But You Can See Everything doesn’t cover much of this actual history. Fielder doesn’t bother to indict Holmes and prove that she committed fraud — the court case already did that. Instead, he offers a window into the psychology of someone who could commit such an epic fraud. Holmes and Evans allow Fielder into their home with the goal of proving that they’re just regular, good people trying to improve the world. Instead, Fielder depicts the couple — quite accurately — as monsters of deception and manipulation.
It’s doubtful that any other filmmaker could have done nearly as good a job of this. The blurry line between what’s real and what’s fake has always been a major theme of Nathan Fielder’s work — he loves hiring actors to simulate past and future interactions, constructing facsimiles of whole buildings, and so on. And of course he’s very skilled with the tricks of the visual storyteller’s trade, using deliberate cuts, camera angles, and creative edits to make the audience think and feel what he wants them to.
Whereas many filmmakers would have regarded Holmes as a subject to be studied, Fielder seems to see her as an opponent to be challenged and beaten. If he can shoot what Holmes wants him to shoot, but ultimately seize control of the narrative, then he’s the more powerful storyteller. This, I think, is why he doesn’t bring in outside evidence to show what a well-documented liar Holmes is. That would be cheating. Instead, he has to venture into the monster’s lair alone, and defeat her in single combat. He has to film the movie that she asks him to film, and let her show him only what she wants him to see, and still have audiences walk away having seen the story that he wants to tell.
And of course he succeeds, because he’s very good, but also because he gets to edit the film, and editing is more powerful than acting. Score one for the good guys.
(Major spoilers begin here.)
How does Fielder win the contest? Over the course of You Can See Everything, he captures Elizabeth Holmes saying a number of strange and extraordinary things:
Near the beginning, Holmes tells Fielder that she’s never lied in her life. After he presses her, she half-admits that she may have told small white lies out of convenience. But the audience gets to watch her repeatedly assert something obviously, fantastically false, always with the same sincere, relaxed, wide-eyed expression on her face.
Later on, Fielder shows Holmes the famous “Who’s on first?” comedy routine, which she claims never to have seen. After watching it, Holmes claims not to have realized that the baseball player’s name is “Who” — thus missing the entire point of the sketch.
Fielder recruits Amanda Seyfried, who played Holmes in the miniseries The Dropout, to help him figure out what’s going on with Holmes and her partner. At one point, Holmes is calling on the phone from prison. Seyfried asks Holmes if she knew Seyfried would be on the call, and Holmes says “I’m not sure if I knew.”
It’s moments like these, more than any simple lie, that reveal Holmes’ true character. In fact, Fielder seems like he passes up several chances to catch Holmes in a straight-up lie on camera. After all, what would one lie, or even three lies, really prove? Everyone lies sometimes, and capturing a couple of those instances during weeks of living with Holmes wouldn’t be hard. It would be a cheap trick, and it wouldn’t really prove that Holmes is a liar in general.
Instead, the moments Fielder captures demonstrate something deeper and far more unnerving about Holmes’ relationship to the truth. Holmes is a very special and powerful kind of liar — someone for whom deception and manipulation are as automatic and as continuous as breathing.
Until we get more assets in orbit around Saturn, we’re left to studying Cassini data on the fascinating moon Enceladus, findings that have already revealed much about geyser activity at the moon’s south polar region and its implications. New lab work is now procovative, as Alex Tolley reports in this morning’s essay. While we cannot claim a detection of life, it increasingly appears that the same kind of hot vents that allow life to flourish on the ocean floors of Earth produce nurturing conditions on Enceladus as well. Could an Earth organism survive in the rugged little moon’s ocean? As Alex explains, the recent experiments are more than a little encouraging. If a future mission finds evidence of microbes in the Enceladan ocean, we will have not only proven that life exists on another world, but that conditions common on icy moons may support living systems throughout the outer system.
by Alex Tolley
Introduction
Last year, 3i/Atlas, the interstellar comet, eclipsed the important reanalysis of the Cassini plume data. While the news speculated about whether Atlas was an alien probe, a Nature Astronomy paper concerning the reanalysis of the Cassini plume particles found a host of interesting organic molecules, more complex than hitherto found. Rather than simple molecules like methane (CH4), the analysis using mass spectrometry detected evidence of more complex multi-carbon compounds of different types, as shown in Figure 1. Click this image from the paper to enlarge it.
The carbon structures detected implied that more complex molecules existed in the plumes, but most interesting was that these structures are also part of biomolecules. In other words, some of these molecules could have come from organisms. Had Cassini found possible biosignatures of organisms that had been ejected from the sun-surface ocean?
Unfortunately, the molecules were not a smoking gun. All of them could have also had an abiotic origin, and not one required a known terrestrial biological synthesis route. The paper included a diagram showing the possible origin and pathways. Examination of the image shows that there are no definite biological molecules found, nor any biochemical pathway between the putative compounds. At best we might have another ambiguous biosignature.
Figure 2 (click to enlarge). The structures, possible molecules, their origin, and pathways between them. No biological molecule was found, nor any biochemical pathway between the detected structures. (The original caption is included to explain the diagram),
An intriguing finding, but “no cigar.” An ambiguous finding that we must expect at this stage of biosignature detection.
Enceladus as an Abode for Life
Before I go into the microbe growth experiment, I should explain why Enceladus may be an interesting abode for life. The obvious, and simple, answer is NASA’s mantra “follow the water”. The shape of the Saturn-originated magnetic field data around Enceladus is best interpreted as due to a liquid ocean. The plumes that were detected at the South pole were largely composed of water ice, so we know that this ocean is large and must be above freezing, unlike the frozen ice crust above it. The plumes must be getting their energy from somewhere, and the best hypothesis is from a hot, rocky core.
Surface temperatures on Enceladus show that the South Pole is warmer than the rest of the surface, indicating a hot spot below that drives the plumes, rather like the Old Faithful geyser at Yellowstone National Park. Why should Enceladus have a hot core? It is a small moon, about 500 km in diameter. Any radioactive elements should have long since cooled. The best explanation is that tidal forces squeeze Enceladus, keeping at least pockets of the core hot. The thinking goes that ocean water seeping into the rocky core is heated and forms hot vents of a similar nature to those in the Earth’s oceans. As the Earth’s hot vents are surrounded by life from bacteria to complex life, so Enceladus’s ocean vents may also support life. One dominant hypothesis of Earth’s abiogenesis is that the conditions at the alkaline rocks at Earth’s hot vents create the needed hydrogen (H2) coupled with dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) to provide the needed energy via methanogenesis for prokaryotic methanogens to grow. The archaea prokaryotes are predominantly methanogens and possibly the earliest form of extant life that emerged at these vents.

Image: Hot vent on Earth. Credit: NOAA
Are the Enceladan vents similar to Earth’s? The main difference is their temperature. On Earth, the vent water emerges around 400°C, whilst it is calculated that on Enceladus, the temperature is closer to 90°C. This makes little difference as the temperature rapidly declines away from the vent, much as the energy from a star declines with increasing orbital distance.
The ocean on Enceladus is 16-31 km deep, with an overlying ice crust of 20-25 km. However, as the gravity is just 1% of Earth’s, the pressure at the bottom of the ocean is equivalent to just 400-650 m on Earth, compared to Earth’s average ocean depth of 4 km. Therefore, we have a temperature and pressure at the Enceladan vents that are well within the range of Earth’s.
There is one difference from Earth’s ocean. The alkalinity of Earth’s oceans is generally neutral (pH 7) to mildly alkaline, although becoming more acidic due to increasing CO2 emissions. In some vent fields, the pH is as high as 8 [1]. By comparison, Enceladus ocean water is more alkaline with a pH of 11-12. Due to more sodium carbonate (Na2CO3) [2]
Growing terrestrial organisms in simulated Enceladan ocean medium
This year, the same team published a paper asking a different question. Could life be extant in the Enceladan ocean to create the detected organic compounds by Cassini? While we still await any possible future discovery of life, it is worth asking whether terrestrial life could survive and reproduce in the conditions of that ocean. If they can, then this proves that life could exist on Enceladus. If life were to exist in the ocean, it likely would occupy the same sort of hot vent habitat that microbes and complex life are found around Earth’s hot vents.
The first step was to concoct a simulant for the Enceladan ocean, an alkaline salt mixture [sodium chloride (NaCl), sodium carbonate (Na2CO3), and sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) with crushed rock that mimicked the likely rocky core at the base of the ocean. To simulate the hot vent, the ocean sample was kept at 65°C. This is a temperature that is too hot for most terrestrial organisms, except for thermophiles adapted to high temperatures. What sort of organisms would be suitable to test? The authors chose an archaeal methanogen that could extract energy from H2 generated by the serpentinization of the rock and the dissolved CO2. The chosen organism, Methanothermococcus okinawensis, was acquired from an ocean hot vent in a Pacific trench near Japan.
The Enceladan ocean simulant [EOS] was made to test 5 pH levels, 9, 9.5, 10, 10.5, and 11, and incubated with the microbes. The controls were an incubation with a standard culture medium for methanogens (MMC) with sodium hydroxide (NaOH) to adjust the pH to the same values as the EOS, and a sterile saline medium.
What did they discover?
Figure 3 (click to enlarge). Cell growth in the 3 experimental alkaline conditions. Cell growth compared to the standard MMC culture for the organism and the sterile control. At pH greater than 9, only the simulated Enceladan ocean sample inoculum increased growth, while the MMC control showed no growth.
First, despite the low CO2 in the EOS, the microorganism extracted energy from the available H2 and CO2, as shown by the growth curves of the archean organisms over the 2-day experiment. A readout of their gene activity as RNA transcripts indicated that the organism over-expressed the genes in the acetyl-CoA pathway to reduce CO2 for fixation.
The methanogenesis reaction is an anaerobic respiration: CO2 + 4 H2 → CH4 + 2 H2O + energy
Figure 4 (click to enlarge). Reductive acetyl-CoA pathway in bacteria. CFeSP is a corrinoid iron-sulfur protein. The cyclic pathway consumes H2 and CO2 to fix carbon as acetyl-CoA, which is passed to other metabolic pathways for growth. – source: Wikipedia CC
To confirm that metabolism was occurring, the carbon source (sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3), the source of CO2) was labelled with carbon-13 as a tracer. This tracer was detected in the released CH4, proving that the organism was responsible for the methanogenesis. [This type of labelled experiment was used to try to detect life with the Viking Mars landers in the 1970s.]
13CO2 + 4 H2 → 13CH4 + 2 H2O (the labeled carbon is transferred to the methane)
Second, the organisms were able to grow despite the alkalinity of the growth medium being beyond the range they were known to tolerate and survive. This adaptation seems to have been achieved by upregulation of the genes in the acetyl-CoA pathway. The experiment clearly demonstrates that a terrestrial organism could live at the hot vents at the bottom of the Enceladan ocean, at least as regards the experimental conditions allowed. While the experiment was not done at the pressure of their natural habitat, and that being greater than at the bottom of the Enceladan ocean, it seems unlikely that pressure was a constraint for such organisms.
The organisms would double their cell numbers about every 6 hours at the baseline conditions at pH 6.5 in MMC. Prior experiments had confirmed that these microbes could not survive in a terrestrial ocean above pH 8.5. At pH 9 in MMC, the growth rate was reduced, doubling in about 40 hours. By pH 10, the cells died. In the EOS condition, at pH 9 the cells doubled in about 23 hours, at pH 10 doubling in about 42 hours, and at pH 11 doubling was slowed to a calculated 126 hours. Although the growth rate was diminished as the pH was increased all the way to 11, the organisms were able to grow at the highest pH, which was well beyond the pH of their natural terrestrial habitat.
What this experiment proved was that a terrestrial organism, not adapted to Enceladus, was able to survive and grow if introduced to Enceladus around a hot vent, near the base of a plume, with an available heat source in the somewhat soda-like conditions of the ocean.
This is very significant, as it supports the earlier Cassini findings that the organic material extracted from the plumes could conceivably have come from organisms as well as an abiotic source. This doesn’t prove Enceladus has life, but that life can exist on Enceladus in the hot, dark conditions around vents at the rock-water interface, and would be worth searching for in a future mission.
It is worth noting that if these terrestrial microbes were introduced to a hot vent on Enceladus, the replication rate would fill that niche quickly due to the power of exponential growth.
Assuming that once that local niche was filled, further growth would be linear, as the new cells would be pushed out into the cold, near-freezing ocean in the plume. The cell density would be substantially reduced, but still detectable in the plume if intact. If the cells were destroyed as they froze, we might be able to detect cell fragments with sufficiently large collection volumes.
What would be exciting would be to detect biomolecules such as fragments of DNA, RNA, proteins, carbohydrates, or lipids in a sample. This could inform us whether any organisms were from a separate genesis, or from an introduction common to terrestrial organisms. Neither DNA, RNA, nor proteins were extracted from the Cassini plume analysis. Had there been, that would have been an unambiguous biosignature. We await a future mission to Enceladus, perhaps even a lander, to investigate further.
The paper about the Cassini plume analysis is: Khawaja, N., Postberg, F., O’Sullivan, T.R. et al. Detection of organic compounds in freshly ejected ice grains from Enceladus’s ocean. Nat Astron 9, 1662–1671 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-025-02655-y
The Experiment growing the methanogens in simulated Enceladan ocean water is: Helmbrecht, V., Postberg, F., Khawaja, N., Reichelt, R., Klein, F., Grohmann, D., & Orsi, W. D. (2026b). Enceladus-like geochemistry fuels methanogenesis under extreme CO 2 limitation. Science Advances, 12(39), eaei0167. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aei0167
References
1. Ocean vent. (n.d.). https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/ocean-vent/
2. Glein, C. R., Baross, J. A., & Waite, J. H. (2015). The pH of Enceladus’ ocean. Geochimica Et Cosmochimica Acta, 162, 202–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2015.04.017

In its current iteration, SpaceX is largely a data company seeking to provide enormous amounts of compute for artificial intelligence. During an earnings call on Tuesday afternoon, company officials spent much of their time discussing ambitious plans to roll out up to 10 GW of compute in 2027—on the ground.
Gone are the days of aspirational talk about sending humans to Mars and settling the red planet. Now it is almost all about artificial intelligence and the data needed to support its expansion. However, the company's long-term ambitions to provide data services from space, initially with the Starlink Internet constellation and eventually through the "Starmind" data center constellation, still rely on an actual rocket.
That would be the Starship vehicle, and during the earnings call, SpaceX founder Elon Musk and the company's president and chief operating officer, Gwynne Shotwell, provided new performance targets for the vehicle.
2. Apartments that expand at the touch of a button.
3. Has this guy composed more songs than anybody else?
4. Psychoanalyzing Elizabeth Holmes.
5. AI wrote some of the Dallas Michelin reviews. And the reviewer responds.
6. New Yorker profile of James Daunt. The last event I was at I saw three Daunt bags, one of them mine (not in the UK).
7. New Kyla Scanlon YouTube series.
The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
To the list of pithy phrases meant to encapsulate politics in a hundred situations — including “All politics is local” and “It’s the economy, stupid” — the Trump era has brought another that may or may not endure, but certainly has been true for the last few years: “Everything is gender.”
The irony is that just as Republican politicians are forcing a wave of closures of gender studies programs at universities, understanding gender has never been more important to American politics than it is now. I would even argue that just as in 2017 Ta-Nehisi Coates called Donald Trump “the first white president” — the first for whom whiteness was the essential organizing principle — we could call the second-term Trump the first drag president. He performs an exaggerated, often surreal version of masculinity, one that his own audience must have trouble following at times.
Lately, that performance has taken what looks on the surface to be a discordant, homoerotic turn. But it isn’t quite homoerotic, because it isn’t erotic. Instead, it falls within a long tradition of fascist aesthetics, clothed in Trump’s allergy to subtlety or subtext.
Trump has always been interested in the physical appearance of both women and men, which until recently one could put down to his belief that politics is a show that requires casting conventionally attractive people. But in the last year or so — and especially as he campaigns for Republicans ahead of the midterms — he has been talking more and more about handsome men and their bodies.
He has long enjoyed appearing before groups of men he believes embody a physical version of manhood — servicemembers, coal miners, any collection of blue-collar guys — but when he does these days, he’s likely to pick one particularly appealing specimen out and tell the audience what a hunk the man is, sometimes even calling him up to the stage so he can get a close look. “I wanna check him out. Look at the muscles on this guy,” he said about a Coast Guard cadet. “You’re a beautiful guy,” he told a UFC fighter at ringside. “You could be a model!”
Their taut muscles, their firm jaws, their strong hands, all move him to rhapsody. It’s been happening on the campaign trail almost every day, and it reached the level of comedy when he described the journey his eyes took over Sen. Jon Husted’s body, with extra time spent on the senator’s hindquarters:
“I stood right over here, and I examined his ass. I never did that with a man before. I examined his ass, and then I looked at his shoulders. I looked at his feet. I looked at his hand. I looked at his jawline. Stunning.”
A riff on Husted’s hot bod has now been added to Trump’s rally playlist no matter where he is, as though Americans everywhere are keen to hear what he thinks of this obscure Ohio politician’s butt. This was yesterday in North Carolina:
This has been the subject of a good deal of amply justified mockery from liberals, given how important anxious masculinity is to the entire MAGA movement. It has always been deeply ironic that so many conservatives who begin to panic at the mere sight of gayness would consider Trump to be a model of masculinity. This is an obese octogenarian who slathers on makeup every day and spends hours on his hair, enacting a performance of manhood defined by nothing so much as the fact that it is the opposite of what it purports to be. To that, he has now added daily disquisitions on the male form.
Meanwhile, wherever possible Republicans charge their Democratic opponents with being gay, like fifth-grade bullies mocking the smaller kids on the playground. Witness JD Vance, who said this when a supporter shouted “I love you!” at a campaign appearance:
“I love you too, sir,” Vance said. “In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I’m the vice president, not James Talarico.” Or in other words: “No homo!”
Trump is hardly the only one on the right ogling muscly men. As they grapple with a world in which upper-body strength is no longer the sole determinant of social status, many conservatives have put a new premium on male physical prowess, in ways that seem to pulse with homoeroticism. A couple of years ago, Tucker Carlson put out a short film called “The End of Men,” about how masculinity is supposedly in decline and must be recaptured through things like tanning your testicles (yes, really). In addition to some right-wing conspiracy theories and quack health advice, the film is a deluge of shots of shirtless dudes working out, shirtless dudes wrestling with each other, shirtless dudes shooting guns, and shirtless dudes generally being hot, enough to fill up a dozen gay porn movies.
At least on first glance. But I don’t think Tucker Carlson wants to have sex with the men in his film, any more than Trump wants to bed Jon Husted. I say that because today’s conservative movement vibrates with the echoes of fascism in a hundred ways, including when it confronts gender, and a key part of the fascist aesthetic is that the perfect man is de-sexualized. He is not a sexual being; he is a statue to be honed, gazing at himself for endless hours in the mirror until he has made himself worthy of being gazed at from a distance by others — especially other men.
You can see that in so much of the manosphere today: The influencers posting about their peptide stack and obsessing over their workouts and their jawlines aren’t doing it so they can win the hearts of women, they’re performing for other men. As neo-Nazi troll Nick Fuentes said, “If we’re really being honest, never having a girlfriend, never having sex with a woman really makes you more heterosexual, because honestly, dating women is gay, having sex with women is gay. And having sex with men is gay. Really it’s all gay.”
Unlike Fuentes, the prominent men of MAGA and the manosphere do want to sleep with women, but mostly as a way of outdoing other men. This has long been Trump’s modus operandi; think of how, when he married Marla Maples, he tried to negotiate a deal to have her pose nude in Playboy (she refused). The only reason he would do that is so other men would lust after her, and that would raise his status among them. Everything we know about Trump’s sexual history — including the two dozen women who have publicly accused him of various kinds of sexual misconduct, up to and including rape — is that it is all about domination, violence, and contempt. It’s almost impossible to believe that he ever had a romantic or erotic impulse that wasn’t actually about his own status.
The same is true of so many others in Trump’s orbit, from Pete Hegesth to Robert Kennedy, Jr. obsessing over their testosterone levels (and everyone else’s) and posting videos of themselves working out to demonstrate their strength and virility, oblivious to the fact that it only makes them look pathetic.
Once you realize how anti-erotic the iconography and rhetoric of today’s conservative movement is, you begin to see it everywhere, from “Mar-a-Lago face,” the very grotesqueness of which is its true purpose (since it proves the length of self-mutilation a woman will reach in order to prove her devotion to Trump) to the propaganda endlessly pumped out by the administration. For instance, last year, government accounts began posting a variety of white supremacy-tinged memes, including some featuring fair-haired, square-jawed young men:
That image and others like it were directly evocative of Nazi propaganda imagery in which Hitler’s government promoted the image of the perfect Aryan man. Here, for instance, is “La Force,” created in 1939 by the Nazis’ favorite sculptor, Arno Breker; and a still from Leni Riefenstahl’s film “Olympia,” a celebration of the 1936 Berlin Olympics:
There is nothing erotic about this kind of man; he is meant only to be gazed upon, admired but not desired. And there is Donald Trump standing below, looking up at him in awe, moved almost to tears.
For most of my life, it felt that politics consisted of endless rehashings of the cultural conflicts of the 1960s, in which the hippies and the squares faced off again and again. So much of the anger of the right felt like it was the aftereffect that moment in the youth of conservative Boomers, driven by the memory of grinding their teeth as they watched a smoke-filled van heading off for Woodstock, knowing that the longhaired punks in the back were going to get to have sex with those free-thinking girls in peasant skirts, while they were left behind to watch The Lawrence Welk Show with their parents. The conservative men may have mocked the hippie men for being effeminate, but they burned with jealousy over the fact that those hippies had all the fun.
But politics isn’t that anymore, at least not mostly. Today’s right is reenacting the time leading up to World War II, when there was another “masculinity crisis” that the far right capitalized on. Around the world, neo-Nazis and other far-right extremists are creating “Active Clubs” in which men train, spar, read fascist tracts, and admire each other’s bodies.
From the moment Trump began his first presidential race in 2015, it was clear that much of his appeal lay in his ability to take what was implicit and make it explicit, to make subtext into text. What other politicians hinted at, he said outright: Immigrants are scum, liberals are stupid, women should shut up. As one attendee at a Trump rally told Jeff Sharlet in 2016, “We all want to punch somebody in the face, and he says it for us.”
And now, Trump has removed the subtlety from the fascist admiration for the male body. Will other Republican politicians, Fox News hosts, and far-right podcasters now start paying public tribute to each other’s asses? Will MAGA acolytes say “We all want to run our hands over a strong man’s body, and he says it for us”? That may be going too far. But in an age when everything is gender, almost nothing should surprise us.
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I like this detrumpification proposal from Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin (boldface mine):
President Donald Trump may get a show at the Smithsonian, though not as he might have hoped. On October 6, representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland introduced a bill directing officials from the Smithsonian Institution to collect and preserve “artifacts related to the President’s narcissistic self-worship.”
These artifacts include the giant banners bearing Trump’s face that have hung outside several federal agency buildings over the past 21 months, and signs the President plans to place outside of Smithsonian museums warning visitors about the “ideological capture” of the institution.
“The Preserving and Remembering the History of Trump and other Tyrants Act” is, in part, a response to July’s executive order 14416, which was titled ‘‘Restoring Trust in the Smithsonian Institution.’’
The goal of the six-page bill is to establish a permanent museum exhibition that presents “the rise of governmental propaganda, corruption, and authoritarianism due to the two Presidencies of Donald J. Trump.” In addition to artifacts of the state, the bill directs the secretary of the Smithsonian Institution to collect relevant photo, film, and media, as well as the personal narratives of American citizens “who resisted and opposed authoritarianism.”
The exhibition would place the Trump presidency in the context of earlier periods of American political extremism. These include the Know Nothingism of the mid-19th century, the Lost Cause myth that gained popularity at the turn of the 20th century, and McCarthyism of the 1950s. The bill also proposed a sign of its own to accompany the permanent exhibition. It would read: “Donald Trump ordered the installation of these signs without any Congressional authorization as required by the Constitution. The 119th Congress passed legislation authorizing this exhibit.” In a Republican controlled house, the bill is unlikely to pass.
(You can find the actual legislation here).
While it won’t pass this term, Democrats should pass it next term, and if that fails make it part of a reconciliation bill.

SAN FRANCISCO – Wi-Fi technology from Solstar Space connected NASA’s R5-S10 cubesat with Momentus’ Vigoride-7 orbital service vehicle during proximity operations and relayed data to NASA’s Johnson Space Center, Solstar […]
The post Solstar provides Wi-Fi connectivity for NASA proximity operations demonstration appeared first on SpaceNews.

Glasgow, UK | 21 October 2026 – The pace of development in quantum technologies continues to accelerate, and over the past few months, space engineering company Craft Prospect has been […]
The post Summer of Quantum: Building momentum for space-based QKD appeared first on SpaceNews.

Horrific violence, enduring terror and ceaseless solidarity: four years of war through the eyes of Ukrainian civilians
- by Aeon Video
A blockbuster story in the Wall Street Journal tonight by Alexander Ward, Natalie Andrews, and Josh Dawsey says that it was billionaire Elon Musk who ordered Space X to slow down its service in Ukraine, rendering some drones that stopped incoming missiles and others aimed at Russian targets useless.
The reporters say it is unclear if Musk operated without input from White House officials. Some of their sources say he did; others say he coordinated with multiple senior officials, including Trump.
According to Jennifer Jacobs of CBS News, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared to try to dismiss the slowdown as a business decision: “We haven’t pulled anything back. There are terms of service that ultimately need to be complied to. And that’s where Starlink has the option to make those decisions, but nothing’s changed from our view. We haven’t made any directives or anything like that.” He added: “[W]e wish the Ukrainians, obviously, success.”
After the slowdown caused a public uproar, the Wall Street Journal reporters write, representatives from SpaceX, the parent company of Starlink, called the White House to coordinate messaging to say that Starlink and the administration had agreed to the slowdown ahead of time.
Musk’s decision to change the course of a war with “a seeming flick of a switch,” taking it upon himself, with or without the complicity of White House officials, to reverse the foreign policy of the United States of America for the benefit of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, is a stunning assumption of power reminiscent of Revolutionary War general Benedict Arnold’s weakening of the Americans’ defenses and draining of supplies at the strategic fort at West Point to enable the British to capture it before he was discovered and defected to the British Army.
Another lens through which to see this story is the apparent eagerness of White House officials to turn Musk into a scapegoat for a decision they were happy to endorse until it blew up in their faces.
A New York Times story by Tyler Pager suggests a different leak from the White House. Pager relates that billionaire Venezuelan banker Julio Herrera Velutini wanted a presidential pardon. His family hired Alina Habba, a former Trump lawyer who at the time was working at the Justice Department, as general counsel at a company, Concord Partners, that was launched by Herrera’s daughter, has no public profile and whose business is unclear. Habba’s contract is worth more than $50 million over four years. Just weeks after she began to work for Concord Partners, Trump granted Herrera a full pardon.
Habba denied having any role in the pardon and refused to describe her work for Concord Partners, but Pager reports that “[p]eople familiar with Ms. Habba’s contract said they believed that she was brought in to help with Mr. Herrera’s push for a pardon and expressed surprise at the scale of the compensation.”
Thomas Frank at Politico received a recording of a speech Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Cameron Hamilton gave today at a private conference in Little Rock, Arkansas, in which he said the Trump administration plans to shift responsibility for disaster management to the states.
Hamilton’s speech built on an internal memo from October 15, which Frank also covered, that said the administration seeks to turn disaster response over to local and state government, thereby “reducing federal dependency.” “Federal dollars should be building greater capability, not creating greater dependency,” Hamilton said today.
Today Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan of the New York Times reported that sources have told them that Trump wants to move the press out of the White House and that Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency who has pushed to go after Trump’s political opponents for mortgage fraud, is one of those pushing the idea of restoring the press briefing room to its original form as a swimming pool. Another is Boris Epshteyn, the lawyer who has pushed the lawsuits the president has launched against journalists.
President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had the pool installed because swimming helped strengthen his muscles, weakened by polio. President Richard Nixon had it covered over and turned into a briefing room to accommodate the growing White House Press Corps. Haberman and Swan note that forcing the press out of the White House would be “highly symbolic. The proximity of the media to the seat of U.S. executive power has long been an acknowledgment of the importance of a free press in a constitutional democracy.”
These four stories, just from today, encapsulate the administration’s betrayal of U.S. national security, its corruption, and its disregard for the welfare of Americans. It’s not a great record to run on, and the leaks from the administration show that at least some insiders are aware of how unpopular and dangerous that record is.
And so, Trump is pulling out all the stops to keep Democrats from winning control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.
In what appears to be a transparent attempt to shore up wavering support from a constituency that until recently was one of his most loyal, Trump announced yesterday that the Agriculture Department would provide $8 billion to help farmers slammed by the high cost of diesel. Kevin Draper of the New York Times reported that rates of payment will be announced next month, and the money will come no sooner than late November or early December, well after the election.
Trump announced the prospective payments at an event for Republican senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, whose reelection campaign is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton. Meredith Lee Hill and Grace Yarrow of Politico report that Marshall had asked Trump for the program. Republicans like Marshall are hoping Trump’s announcement will help stop the flow of voters away from the Republicans and toward the Democrats in the farm states. Representative Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, whose reelection is uncertain given the strength of his Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke, said: “This will go a long way to making sure the folks that feed us have it a bit easier when they most need it.”
But Trump officials told Hill and Yarrow that the fund Trump intends to use for the payments—a taxpayer-funded account in the Department of Agriculture—doesn’t have enough money in it to make the payments. Either Congress will have to add more to it, or the administration will have to take the money from a different program.
Top agricultural groups say farmers need at least $50 billion to make up for the impact of tariffs, disasters caused by weather, and the high cost of fuel and fertilizer caused by the war on Iran.
Trump told the Kansas audience at the announcement that if they reelect Marshall, he will also allow year-round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol, a big deal for corn growers. But, he added, “if Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it.”
Still, Democrats are not letting the White House change the subject from its betrayal of Ukraine. This morning, Representative Jim Himes (D-CT) posted a video, saying he had just gotten off a phone call with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky and a number of other representatives and senators.
“I was just appalled by what I learned,” he said. “The president said that Starlink—Starshield—has been throttled so that the Ukrainians can no longer intercept most of the Russian drones that are wreaking havoc at schools and hospitals and civilian centers. He said that they are completely out of missile interceptors. And make no mistake: that’s our fault.
“More significantly, that’s the fault of Donald Trump, who has now shown his hand as an ally of Vladimir Putin and Elon Musk. We can’t really get straight answers about whether it’s Elon or Donald Trump, but at the end of the day, because they throttled Starlink, Ukrainians are dying.
“In the call, I made the point to some of my colleagues, which is, it’s time to accept that Donald Trump is rooting for a Russian victory here. And that the Congress needs to step up and actually pass veto-proof legislation. Enough dilly-dallying with the secretary of state in the Oval Office. We need to step up and pass veto-proof legislation that will provide assistance, military aid, and access to Starlink for the Ukrainians. That’s the only way this is gonna get done, and it needs to get done now.
“Ukrainians are dying, and Putin will win this if Donald Trump has his way,” Himes said, “[W]e’re going to act as a Congress and override this president’s desire to see Vladimir Putin win.”
—
Notes:
https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-starlink-elon-musk-trump-dbc49193
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-ukraine-spacex-starshield-trump-administration/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/us/politics/julio-herrera-pardon-alina-habba.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/20/fema-states-disasters-exclusive-energy-environment-01128120
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/16/fema-state-reliance-federal-aid-01124455
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/us/politics/trump-white-house-media.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/business/trump-farmer-bailout.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/20/trump-farmers-payments-gop-midterms-01128165
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The International Festival of Economics will take place in Turin from 22 to 25 October 2026. I hope to be there to participate in all but the first day. (I'll be speaking on Saturday.)
The International Festival of Economics 2026
"Following the success of its first four editions, respectively dedicated to The New Generations of the World (2025), Who Owns Knowledge (2024), Rethinking Globalization (2023), and Merit, Diversity and Social Justice (2022), the Festival will return from October 22 to 25 in some of the most beautiful venues in the center of the Piedmontese capital with a new edition titled Saving the Welfare State. In Turin, some of the most authoritative economists and international experts working at the forefront of research on this topic will meet, together with scholars from many other disciplines.
The International Festival of Economics is curated by Editori Laterza and Collegio Carlo Alberto - Torino Local Committee (TOLC) under the scientific direction of Tito Boeri. The event is promoted by the TOLC, which brings together the Piedmont Region, the City of Turin, Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, Fondazione CRT, the University of Turin, the Polytechnic University of Turin, the Turin Chamber of Commerce, Unioncamere Piemonte, Unione Industriali Torino, and Legacoop, coordinated by the Fondazione Collegio Carlo Alberto.
Collegio Carlo Alberto will be one of the festival's venues, hosting 29 events.
Of course I read to absorb the content, but I also am in a position to meet many authors, have contact with them, and spend time with them. So reading anything also is a potential option on those future connections. But when I am reading an AI piece, the value of that option comes pretty close to zero.
The post One reason I do not love AI writing, or even AI-assisted writing appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Globalization is once again better than many people realize:
We study the role of foreign ideas in U.S. innovation by constructing a directed “genealogy” of technologies from the full text of 13 million patents filed between 1887 and 2024. By tracing which earlier technologies appear in the founding patents of new ones, we recover a large-scale input–output network of technological recombination that identifies the foreign technologies that serve as inputs into innovation in the United States. We report four main findings. First, foreign ideas are pervasive: 54% of U.S. technologies build on at least one foreign input, and the most fertile U.S. technologies rely on foreign inputs most heavily. Second, foreign ideas have large causal effects on U.S. innovation. Using the historical settlement of migrants as a source of exogenous variation in local ancestry, we show that U.S. counties more exposed to knowledge from a given foreign country absorb substantially more technologies from that country and, in turn, invent significantly more U.S. technologies building on them. Third, foreign ideas shape not only the level but also the direction of technical change: U.S. counties are far more likely to pioneer the specific technologies whose foreign inputs are already in their local idea stock, and the changing origins of foreign ideas accompany the shift of American innovation from its historical heartland toward the coasts. Fourth, these effects leave a lasting imprint on local labor markets: decades later, counties that absorbed more of an origin’s ideas host more jobs working with those ideas, and even more work with the U.S. technologies descended from them.
Here is the full paper by
The post The Causal Effect of Foreign Ideas on U.S. Innovation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
It’s time to install an app! But here in 1986, we still call them “programs,� not apps. So, you’ll want to set aside some time to get started installing a program.
Since you have a Commodore 64, there are really only two options for getting new programs this month: COMPUTE!’s Gazette and RUN, and you have to hope that one of those magazines isn’t sold out at the book store. So let’s get going.
You will need to ask your mom if you can ride your bike to the mall. The dirt mall is closer, but the magazine stand at the dirt mall doesn’t carry any computer magazines, so you’ll need to take a longer ride to the good mall, where the book store actually has computer magazines. It’s a couple of miles to the mall, so usually you would have a friend come with you, but you called their house and nobody picked up, so today it’s a solo trip.
Only one book store carries computer magazines at this mall; the other one only carries magazines about “serious� topics, but they can order back issues of a magazine for you if you want, you just have to wait a few weeks and they’ll call you when it comes in.
The guy at the book store doesn’t know the difference between the different computer magazines, so you can’t ask him if they have the one you want in stock, and he’s probably not going to answer a kid anyway. So you just have to go through all the titles one by one, and hope nobody put a copy of People or Omni in front of it by accident.
There are no ratings, and no reviews of the programs themselves. The closest thing you get is the magazine’s own reviews of hardware — modems, mostly — and a cover that promises you the issue has the thing you want. This month’s cover has a “Buyer’s Guide To Modems� banner across the top.

Once you’ve got a copy of COMPUTE!’s Gazette and you’re checking out at the store, you can see that it’s three dollars for the magazine (about nine bucks in 2026 money). If you’re lucky enough to have a five dollar bill, you’ll still have two dollars left over after buying the magazine. That means you’ll have enough money to swing by the record store later and grab a 45 of one of the new singles, like Sheila E.’s “A Love Bizarre,� written by Prince, or The Bangles’ “Manic Monday,� written by Prince, or Prince and the Revolution’s “Kiss,� written by Prince.
Now it’s time to race home with the new magazine in hand. You’ll have to wait for everybody to get off of the TV that’s by the computer so you can switch it over to the channel the computer is on and get down to work.
Turn on the switch, and you’re at the blinking blue cursor where it says READY. while the screen is still warming up a bit.
When it comes to installing apps programs, it’s all about options, and this month, we’re spoiled: there are two! They’re both games: Survivor, an arena game where, “if you’re quick of mind, eye, and hand, you might outfox your opponent,� and Shifter. Truly, an embarrassment of riches. Since Survivor is the one on the cover, we’ll go with that one.
(Two or three programs a month is pretty typical. That’s… the app store.)
Getting this program running is standard stuff — you just read the article on page 36 that describes the game, and then flip to pages 106 and 107 where there’s the code for a short BASIC loader, and then continue on to pages 107 and 108, where there are 345 rows of densely-packed listings consisting of 9 hexadecimal character pairs, all of which have to be typed in perfectly with zero errors or else your entire game will refuse to run.
A quick sample of the early part of your task looks like this:

After you’re done typing that page in, you’re about a quarter of the way done, assuming you didn’t make any mistakes.
Wait, what’s that? Where are you supposed to be typing these in? Simply type them into the MLX program where you… wait, what’s that? You don’t have the MLX utility that’s used to type in machine language code for games and programs listed in the magazine?
Oh, don’t worry, you’ll just need to type in the code for that program. There’s an article explaining what MLX is, which you can read really quickly on page 93, and then you’ll find the code for it on page 94. That one’s only 100 lines of code, so it should be easy enough to type in. And of course, you’ll know if you made any mistakes when typing, thanks to the Automatic Proofreader.
Wait, you don’t have the Automatic Proofreader program?
Well, no worries. It’s only another 31 lines of BASIC code, which you can find on page 97. (This one you have to type in perfectly on your own; there’s no proofreader for the proofreader.) Once you do that, you’re all set.

Now, you can just use the program that lets you enter the program to make your program. It should only take about half an hour to type in the code for the Automatic Proofreader, and maybe another hour or two for MLX. Let’s call it two hours total between them.
After that, Survivor is ~30 lines of BASIC plus ~350 lines of hex code, so… maybe six hours? But at least MLX will catch any typos as you go.
Once all of this is complete, be sure to save your work to a floppy disk so you don’t have to type it all in again! If all you have is a cassette deck and you’re saving to tape, it’s going to take probably 10–20 minutes of staring at a blank screen when you save, so set aside some time for that.
In total, it should only take you about 8 hours to have Survivor ready to play, plus however long it takes you to get to the mall, buy a magazine, and come back.
(Click or tap to get started.)
[This is Survivor by Kevin Mykytyn and Mark Tuttle, from COMPUTE!’s Gazette, March 1986, running in the VICE emulator. The game loads and runs on its own, which takes a few seconds.]
Controls: the yellow player uses W/A/S/D to move and F to fire; the cyan player uses the arrow keys to move and Enter to fire.
Someday, rather than typing all of this in, you might be able to use your 300 baud modem to download already-created versions of these games and tools. You could dial a local BBS, if there’s one nearby. If you’re unlucky, the only one you can reach is a long-distance call, and you’ll be paying by the minute for as long as you’re connected. Or you could look for a local dial-up number for the Quantum Link online service (which will eventually evolve into America Online!).
Transfer times can range from tens of minutes to hours, and of course during those calls, you are tying up what’s usually the sole voice phone line for the household. Anyone picking up a phone handset in the house threatens to knock your connection offline, forcing you to start the whole process all over again.
Now that you’ve enjoyed your game of Survivor, there are some fun ways to customize your little computer and give it a personal touch.
Just for context, here’s a to-scale comparison of the screen resolution of your Commodore 64 to the dimensions of an iPhone Duo’s unfolded screen.
You can’t change the wallpaper on your Commodore 64, but you can easily change the background colors for both the center area of the screen and the border. All you have to do is manually assign the proper numeric color code to the correct memory register corresponding to the values of each of those settings.
Memory address 53281 will set the background color for the primary content area, and a color code of 1 sets a nice readable white background, so it only takes a simple POKE 53281,1 command at the prompt, and you’re all set. Similarly, POKE 53280,4 will make the border of the screen a nice bright purple color, and of course there are a full complement of 16 colors to choose from.
Naturally, none of this customization is stored anywhere permanent, and it will all be lost if you turn off your computer or run a program.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this brief overview of how to get one game running on your Commodore 64, and perhaps gained a little appreciation for how things have gotten a bit simpler over the years.
Also, I will be entertaining a motion to return to calling our software “programs� instead of apps once more. Perhaps we could use the term to distinguish the software that’s created by humans actually typing things in, as opposed to the kind that’s merely generated by machines?