"God, you're hot."

Keith Irvin: Unambiguously not hot.

So earlier this week, during a meeting of the Washington County Board of Education in Washington County, Tenn., a representative named Keith Irvin listened to a high school student speak, then told her she was hot.

Seriously.

I’m not joking.

For real.

Watch …

And while the entire exchange was creepy AF, what truly caught my eye—and continues to consume my thoughts—is how none of the adults in the room stood up for the girl. Hell, there’s Jerry S. Boyd, school superintendent, sorta sitting there, hands folded, watching in silence. The other board members—nada. Parents—nada. Literally nobody said a word as Mr. Creepster laughed and laughed and laughed, and peers joined in with the chuckles.

And what hit me, in witnessing the moment, was this: Donald Trump’s cabinet members never confront their boss—because doing so would involve not merely conviction of character, but actual bravery. It would mean stepping out of the comfort of a cushy chair, standing tall and saying, “No! This is [fill in the blank with gross/crazy/insane].” It would mean taking a risk. It would mean separating yourself from the lemmings. It would mean being (gasp) brave. And decent. And kind. And real. It would mean risking the access to power, the snazzy job title, the cool parking space, the White House Christmas party invitation.

Those surrounding Keith Irvin had nothing to lose, and only risked the momentary awkwardness of separating oneself from the group—and they were too afraid to say something. So why would we ever expect Marco Rubio or Karoline Leavitt to be bold? Why would we expect them to represent integrity?

We wouldn’t.

And shouldn’t.

These days, sucking up is king.

And the king loves suck-ups.

NATO

April 3, 2026

On April 4, 1949, representatives from twelve countries in Europe and North America—Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States—signed the North Atlantic Treaty, creating the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO. This defensive security alliance has been a key institution for world stability since World War II.

In the wake of that war, the U.S. and its allies recognized the crucial importance of peacetime alliances to deter future wars. To stop the spread of communism across war-torn Europe, the United States backed a massive financial investment into rebuilding Europe. President Harry S. Truman signed the European Recovery Program, better known as the Marshall Plan, into law on April 3, 1948.

Quickly, though, it appeared that economic recovery would not be enough to protect a democratic Europe. The expansion of Soviet-style communism prompted officials to consider a pact that would enlist the United States to stand behind the security of Western Europe. Crucially, though, they wanted it to stand outside the United Nations, where the Soviet Union could exercise veto power. The outcome was the NATO alliance.

NATO guaranteed collective security because all of the member states agreed to defend one another against an attack by a third party. Article 5 of the treaty requires every member nation to come to the aid of any one of them if it is attacked. That article has been invoked only once: after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, after which NATO-led troops went to Afghanistan.

Over the years, the alliance has expanded to include 32 countries. In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, all former satellites of the USSR, joined NATO over the protests of Russia, which was falling under the control of oligarchs who opposed western democracy. More countries near Russia joined NATO in the 2000s, and Finland and Sweden have joined since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—Finland three years ago tomorrow, in fact.

When NATO formed, the main concern of the countries backing it was resisting Soviet aggression, but with the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of Russian president Vladimir Putin, NATO resisted Russian aggression instead.

In 1949, when he signed the treaty, President Truman called the pact a positive influence for peace. That peace was, first of all, among the nations signing the agreement. They were, he said, agreeing “to abide by the peaceful principles of the United Nations, to maintain friendly relations and economic cooperation with one another, to consult together whenever the territory or independence of any of them is threatened, and to come to the aid of any one of them who may be attacked.” If such an agreement had been in place “in 1914 and in 1939, supported by the nations who are represented here today,” he said, “I believe it would have prevented the acts of aggression which led to two world wars.”

With NATO, Truman said, “we hope to create a shield against aggression and the fear of aggression—a bulwark which will permit us to get on with the real business of government and society, the business of achieving a fuller and happier life for all our citizens.”

NATO countries agreed to stand together to withstand aggression from outside the pact. Truman emphasized the difference between the NATO countries and the authoritarian system against which the alliance stood. The NATO countries could stand together without being identical. “There are different kinds of governmental and economic systems, just as there are different languages and different cultures. But these differences present no real obstacle to the voluntary association of free nations devoted to the common cause of peace,” he said. “[I]t is possible for nations to achieve unity on the great principles of human freedom and justice, and at the same time to permit, in other respects, the greatest diversity of which the human mind is capable.”

The experience of the United States “in creating one nation out of…the peoples of many lands” proved that this idea could work, Truman said. “This method of organizing diverse peoples and cultures is in direct contrast to the method of the police state, which attempts to achieve unity by imposing the same beliefs and the same rule of force on everyone.”

The NATO countries did not believe that war was inevitable, Truman said. “Men with courage and vision can still determine their own destiny. They can choose slavery or freedom—war or peace. I have no doubt which they will choose. The treaty we are signing here today is evidence of the path they will follow. If there is anything certain today, if there is anything inevitable in the future, it is the will of the people of the world for freedom and for peace.”

Notes:

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/nato

https://nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-the-occasion-the-signing-the-north-atlantic-treaty

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-31-2024

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Administration is Feeling Pressure

Saturday 4 April 1663

Up betimes and to my office. By and by to Lombard street by appointment to meet Mr. Moore, but the business not being ready I returned to the office, where we sat a while, and, being sent for, I returned to him and there signed to some papers in the conveying of some lands mortgaged by Sir Rob. Parkhurst in my name to my Lord Sandwich, which I having done I returned home to dinner.

Whither by and by comes Roger Pepys, Mrs. Turner her daughter, Joyce Norton, and a young lady, a daughter of Coll. Cockes, my uncle Wight, his wife and Mrs. Anne Wight. This being my feast, in lieu of what I should have had a few days ago for my cutting of the stone, for which the Lord make me truly thankful.

Very merry at, before, and after dinner, and the more for that my dinner was great, and most neatly dressed by our own only maid. We had a fricasee of rabbits and chickens, a leg of mutton boiled, three carps in a dish, a great dish of a side of lamb, a dish of roasted pigeons, a dish of four lobsters, three tarts, a lamprey pie (a most rare pie), a dish of anchovies, good wine of several sorts, and all things mighty noble and to my great content.

After dinner to Hide Park; my aunt, Mrs. Wight and I in one coach, and all the rest of the women in Mrs. Turner’s; Roger being gone in haste to the Parliament about the carrying this business of the Papists, in which it seems there is great contest on both sides, and my uncle and father staying together behind. At the Park was the King, and in another coach my Lady Castlemaine, they greeting one another at every tour.1 Here about an hour, and so leaving all by the way we home and found the house as clean as if nothing had been done there to-day from top to bottom, which made us give the cook 12d. a piece, each of us.

So to my office about writing letters by the post, one to my brother John at Brampton telling him (hoping to work a good effect by it upon my mother) how melancholy my father is, and bidding him use all means to get my mother to live peaceably and quietly, which I am sure she neither do nor I fear can ever do, but frightening her with his coming down no more, and the danger of her condition if he should die I trust may do good.

So home and to bed.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Links 4/4/26

Links for you. Science:

First-of-its-kind vaccine protects children from deadly intestinal infections
How Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Vaccine Agenda Risks a Resurgence of Deadly Childhood Plagues
A New Level of Vaccine Purgatory
Cost and benefits of gene amplification-mediated antibiotic resistance
I Wrote Research Funding Announcements for NIH for 22 Years. This Year They’ve Published 14
Scientists turn mosquitoes ‘into a vaccination tool’ to immunise bats against rabies

Other:

Who Will Lead the Dems to the Promised Land of a New Israel Policy?
We must rewrite the rulebook for fighting antisemitism — or conspiracists like Joe Kent will win the narrative wars
Optimism In An Age Of Superstition And Decline
Trump Friend Asked ICE to Detain the Mother of His Child (the worst people)
The Lies We Tell
The Fake Tough Guys of the Trump Administration
The Crisis In High Education
Father of service member killed in Iran war said he never told Pete Hegseth to ‘finish’ the job
Pope Bob
The left grapples with the painful reality of Cesar Chavez’s legacy
Mayoral Candidate Vincent Orange’s Son Arrested, Found With Illegal Handgun and Sword
The Trump administration is about to kill a popular D.C. bike lane
Fox News freaks over Democrats’ ‘revenge agenda’
As streetcar shutdown looms, H Street commuters face the end of the line
Jared Kushner’s Corruption Is a National Security Disaster
Down to the bone
Stylists fear Hollywood stars are blind to how skinny they really are — while health expert warns of ‘malnutrition’ and muscle ‘waste’
How Will 2028 Democrats Handle Israel?
Marc Andreessen is a philosophical zombie
Musk’s Grok Chatbot Made Sexual Images of Minors, Teens Allege in Lawsuit
Afghan who fought with US special forces dies in ICE custody as Trump on track for deadliest year of detention in more than two decades
College Republicans tap MAGA influencer tied to Nick Fuentes for leadership role
Some DHS contractors told White House officials they were asked to pay Corey Lewandowski
Toxic Pollution From Iran War Will Spread and Last for Decades
Half of Americans now say ‘Abolish ICE.’ It’s about time.
The Right to a Bed in Zohran Mamdani’s New York
What Joe Kent and Candace Owens Are Really Up to in Their Critiques of the Iran War
Maine’s latest ballot question puts a target on trans students’ backs
Trump reshapes a key US House race by offering a candidate and her husband roles if they drop out (that this is illegal is not even mentioned in the story)
The $100,000 fee for H-1Bs is causing all sorts of problems. Unlike Big Tech, rural schools and hospitals that rely on immigrant workers can’t absorb the high cost of H-1B visas.

Apple Releases iOS 18 Security Updates for iOS 26 Holdouts

Jason Snell:

Last December I complained that Apple was withholding iOS 18 security updates from iPhones capable of running iOS 26, leaving users who didn’t want to upgrade to Apple’s latest OS version yet in some security peril.

Well, I have good news and bad news. The good news: As of Wednesday April 1, Apple is pushing out iOS 18.7.7 to all devices running iOS 18. This update, released last month for devices that were not capable of running iOS 26, is now available even for compatible devices. If you’ve got auto-update turned on but have not gone through the steps to do a full upgrade to iOS 26, this update can be automatically pushed and applied. This is good news, as those who have opted not to run iOS 26 will get to take advantage of several sets of security releases.

Now the bad news: This is happening because of some really bad security breaches like DarkSword and Coruna.

It feels a bit spiteful that Apple doesn’t support staying a year behind the major version of iOS like they do — thankfully — with MacOS. The vast majority of iPhone and iPad users just do what Apple encourages — they accept the default setting to auto-update when Apple pushes updates to their devices. People who update manually do so by choice, and if that choice is offered, it ought to be supported.

That said, after buying an iPhone 17 Pro, I left my year-and-a-half-old iPhone 16 Pro on iOS 18, so I updated that phone to 18.7.7 the other day when this became available. I’ve kept that phone on the old OS mostly for comparing what’s changed in iOS 26. I took this opportunity to switch back to that phone, full-time, for two days. It was, to be honest, no big deal. For all the consternation over “Liquid Glass” overall, on iPhone, nothing really sticks out to me switching from iOS 26 back to iOS 18, or vice-versa. iOS 26 just feels visually tweaked, not radically changed.

I like iOS 26 just fine, but I also still like iOS 18, and the differences just don’t seem that significant. For me at least, it’s nothing like switching between MacOS 15 Sequoia and 26 Tahoe. iOS 26 makes some highly opinionated choices, but it feels like it was thoughtfully designed by people who know and love the core longstanding idioms of iOS. MacOS 26 Tahoe feels like it was carelessly designed by people who’ve never used a Mac and wish it would just go away.

See also: Michael Tsai’s roundup.

 ★ 

Quoting Willy Tarreau

On the kernel security list we've seen a huge bump of reports. We were between 2 and 3 per week maybe two years ago, then reached probably 10 a week over the last year with the only difference being only AI slop, and now since the beginning of the year we're around 5-10 per day depending on the days (fridays and tuesdays seem the worst). Now most of these reports are correct, to the point that we had to bring in more maintainers to help us.

And we're now seeing on a daily basis something that never happened before: duplicate reports, or the same bug found by two different people using (possibly slightly) different tools.

Willy Tarreau, Lead Software Developer. HAPROXY

Tags: security, linux, generative-ai, ai, llms, ai-security-research

Quoting Daniel Stenberg

The challenge with AI in open source security has transitioned from an AI slop tsunami into more of a ... plain security report tsunami. Less slop but lots of reports. Many of them really good.

I'm spending hours per day on this now. It's intense.

Daniel Stenberg, lead developer of cURL

Tags: daniel-stenberg, security, curl, generative-ai, ai, llms, ai-security-research

Quoting Greg Kroah-Hartman

Months ago, we were getting what we called 'AI slop,' AI-generated security reports that were obviously wrong or low quality. It was kind of funny. It didn't really worry us.

Something happened a month ago, and the world switched. Now we have real reports. All open source projects have real reports that are made with AI, but they're good, and they're real.

Greg Kroah-Hartman, Linux kernel maintainer (bio), in conversation with Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

Tags: security, linux, generative-ai, ai, llms, ai-security-research

Talking With Lina Khan

On March 9 I interviewed Lina Khan — innovative antitrust thinker, former head of the Federal Trade Commission, and co-chair of the Mamdani transition in New York — at the CUNY Graduate Center. Transcript follows.

Transcript

Janet Gornick Good evening. I’m Janet Gornick, Professor of Political Science and Sociology and Director of the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality here at the Graduate Center. Our center is the co-host of this evening’s event in partnership with our Office of Public Programs. It’s my great pleasure to welcome you here this evening. Welcome to the in-person audience here in Proshansky Auditorium, and welcome to the large virtual audience as well. This evening’s event is one of the many public lectures, panels, and conversations offered here at the Graduate Center at the City University of New York throughout the year. And at the Graduate Center, we’re proud of our history of applying research and scholarship to address societal challenges, and tonight’s conversation fits in with that tradition. This evening, we are extremely pleased to welcome Professor Lina Khan to the Graduate Center. Her first time on our stage here. She’s well known to us and to many of you for her foundational work on antitrust and competition law, and more recently for her crucial role as co-chair of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s transition team.

Professor Khan in just a few minutes will be joined in conversation with Professor Paul Krugman.

So let me first tell you what to expect this evening. After my brief introduction, our two guests will hold a conversation led by Professor Krugman. And while they’re conversing, audience members will have an opportunity to write questions on index cards that you picked up on your way in. The public program staff will come down the aisles at about 7:10 to collect your index cards, and they’ll be sorted and handed to Professor Krugman. So let me make a quick plea to those of you who submit questions. Please make them relatively brief and print as clearly as possible, ideally in block print so that Professor Krugman can read what you’ve written. Yep, that’s necessary.

And then starting at 7:30, our guest will address your questions, and we’ll close at 7:45.

So let me tell you briefly about Professor Lina Khan. A graduate of Williams College and Yale Law School, she got her start in antitrust as a business reporter and researcher, examining consolidation across markets from airlines to chicken farming. In 2017, during her third year at Yale Law School, the “Yale Law Journal” published her article called “Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox”. The article had a huge impact in legal circles, legal and business circles in the United States. And the following year, “The New York Times” described it as reframing decades of monopoly law.

Professor Khan then went on to serve as chair of the Federal Trade Commission from June 2021 until January of 2025. And while at the FTC, she focused on exercising the full suite of the FTC’s statutory authorities, regularly engaging with public audiences and ensuring that the agency updated its tools to accommodate the reality of new markets. Her priority initiatives included reinvigorating antitrust and consumer protection enforcement, tackling non-compete clauses, taking on illegal contact, conduct, excuse me, that deprives Americans of access to affordable high quality healthcare, and protecting people’s sensitive data from surveillance. Her work did not go unnoticed. In 2023, Yahoo Finance dubbed her the most feared person in Silicon Valley.

And now in her post-FTC Life, she’s Associate Professor at Columbia Law, and she served as, as I noted, the co-chair of Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral transition team. So this evening, this evening, Professor Krugman will query her about multiple aspects of her career and her work, focusing especially on questions related to affordability, antitrust, and inequality.

And before I step off the stage, let me say a few words about Paul Krugman, who is well known to many of us here at the Graduate Center, and surely to many in the audience as well. Paul Krugman is a research professor in the Graduate Center’s PhD program in economics and a senior scholar in the Stone Center. Before joining the Graduate Center in 2014, he was Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton. Professor Krugman’s scholarship has been honored countless times, including in 2008 when he received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his work on international trade theory.

He’s the author of more than 200 articles and many books, most recently “Arguing with Zombies, Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future”. In addition to working with us here at the Graduate Center, he co-authors textbooks on micro and macroeconomics with Robin Wells. And of course, many of you know him best for his 25 years writing op-ed columns for “The New York Times”. Last year, he transitioned away from “The Times”, but he surely has not left the world of public engagement. You can now find him on Substack, where every day he’s writing, interviewing diverse thinkers and frequently posting music aimed at raising his readers’ spirits. So welcome to our two guests. Paul, I turn the evening over to you.

Krugman Thanks Janet. Okay, so I should admit to everybody that I have a conflict of interest here, which is I think everybody here wants to hear about the Mamdani administration and what it can do. But I really wanna talk about theories of monopoly power, dynamic strategies and network externalities. And so we will get to stuff that actually matters later, or matters to people here. But I wanna talk, I wanna start with a little bit of sort of intellectual biography.

So tell me, I’ve tried to read some of it, but tell us about your start working on antitrust. ‘Cause you started very, very early on the issues. And then wanna talk about Amazon and all that.

Khan Well, it’s so wonderful to be here, and a great honor to be in conversation with Professor Krugman. So I really got my start as a researcher and reporter. I, you know, graduated during the financial crisis and had originally wanted to be a business journalist. It was very difficult to find journalism jobs, and so I ended up landing at a think tank, where my job was really to do deep dives into various markets across the US economy, and in particular study how the structure of these markets had changed.

And so I would do, you know, spend months looking at the structure of, say, the book publishing industry or the chicken farming industry or the airline industry, and got a sense of how over decades we had gone from having,

in some cases, dozens of competitors to now increasingly, market after market just dominated by a very small number of companies. And my job was to document what the effects of that consolidation had been.

You know, sometimes the consolidation can actually be even more extreme than is visible to us. So if you go to the grocery store, you may see, you know, dozens of brands of laundry detergent or diapers or various kinds of snacks. But even there we see just a couple of companies control market after market, and so there’s actually an illusion of choice. And through doing this research, it was clear that oftentimes the purported benefits of consolidation had been overstated. And in fact, people were left much worse off, be it from the consumer perspective, where companies had started to use the lack of competition to jack up prices or deprive people of choices. But also for workers, for small businesses. I spent a lot of time studying agriculture markets in particular, where we’ve seen, you know, be it in chicken farming or meat processing or you know, beef, you have on the one hand, you know, tens of thousands of farmers, on the other hand, millions of consumers, but just four companies in market after market connecting them. And what that has meant practically is that consumers have been paying more for meat, even as farmers have been making less. And so there’s a clear economic impact.

But there was also just abuse of power that we were seeing, because oftentimes farmers’ entire livelihood could be dependent on just a single firm. And that firm would, you know, dictate terms, would engage in all sorts of abusive contractual practices. And so that got me interested in this body of law that we have in the United States, the antitrust and anti-monopoly laws that were designed precisely to prevent extreme concentrations of economic power. These laws go back to the Industrial Revolution where we had seen enormous technological progress, but similarly a lot of concentration of power.

And there was a concern among lawmakers that these new trusts and industrial titans were really abusing their power in ways that was leaving Americans worse off economically, but that it was also undermining core principles of freedom and liberty. And so that was really my entryway into this. And I just became fascinated by this question of how it was that we had so much consolidation in all these markets and extreme concentration of economic power, even as we had a set of laws on the books that were supposed to protect us from precisely that.

Krugman Okay, and I, yeah, I thought that was really revelatory that so many, you know, in economics textbooks, probably including mine, ours, we, you know, always present agriculture as the quintessential example of a highly competitive industry. But in practice it’s not. The farmers are competitive, the consumers are competitive, but the middlemen are the, okay. I kind of see how that led you to Amazon. So this is this, you know, standing in between. A lot of sellers, a lot of buyers, but someone, actually, that’s the original robber baron was the idea of the robber baron with this castle along the Rhine, extracting tolls from everybody who passes by. But tell me about the Amazon paper. Because I thought, you know, I read it, but I think people should know what it is you did, and I wanna follow up on that.

Khan You’re absolutely right that there are real parallels even among markets that can seem quite different, in that, you know, be it as a chicken farmer or as an author, if your livelihood is suddenly at the whims of a single gatekeeper or a dominant intermediary that is controlling access to markets, the type of abusive practices can actually start to look pretty similar, even in seemingly disparate markets.

So the Amazon paper similarly resulted from doing a lot of business and market research. I spent a lot of time talking to two sets of market participants. One was the set of businesses that were selling through Amazon, and the second was investors and financial analysts that were looking at Amazon more through a long-term financial prism. And this was around 2012, 2013. The kind of common policy wisdom in DC was that Amazon, along with these tech giants, you know, had revolutionized digital markets, that Amazon in particular was, you know, somewhat irrational. It kept losing money, it seemed to be, you know, relentlessly dedicated to making things cheap. And so the idea that Amazon could ever pose some kind of competition problem didn’t really compute for people, because we had come to interpret our antitrust laws primarily through the prism of what the effect on short-term prices would be. And so I ended up using a lot of that research to basically use Amazon to tell a broader story about how various changes in how we now do antitrust had created all sorts of blind spots.

You know, some of the core business practices that Amazon used to develop its network, to deepen its moat were business practices that in the ‘60s or ‘70s would’ve been viewed pretty skeptically by law enforcers. But because of this intellectual revolution that had been, you know, spurred by people like Robert Bork, by people kind of generally known as the Chicago School, that we were now oftentimes facilitating the very types of concentrations of power that these laws were supposed to be skeptical of. And so the article was about Amazon and about Amazon’s business practices, but it was really using the company to tell a deeper story about blind spots that I thought the current antitrust regime had.

Krugman And you got a tremendous amount of, both a lot of people paid attention, but also a lot of pushback, right? People were very upset. And it feels like it was a very long time ago, because in 2017, I guess when it was published, you know, how could you be critical of Amazon? And seems like it’s a very different world now.

Khan It was interesting. I mean, the piece came out in January or February of 2017, and then that summer, Amazon announced it was planning to buy Whole Foods. And I remember that was one of the first moments where the response to one of these big acquisitions seemed a little different, because it seemed to prompt this question for the public of, are there any limits, and what are those principles?

And so I remember that acquisition ended up spurring a lot of discussion in particular.

Krugman Yeah, I mean, what strikes me is that the idea that companies that have established these kind of network positions, these kind of centrality and everybody has to use them, that they would abuse that, seemed, you know, not many people were saying that 10 years ago. And nowadays it’s everywhere. It’s, I mean, the word of the year I guess like three years ago was Cory Doctorow’s enshittification, which was basically largely about Amazon and Facebook and all of these companies abusing their sort of central position in markets. And do you feel vindicated by all of that?

Khan You know, it’s good that there’s been collective learning about, you know, the challenges that these firms can pose, you know, resulting in major lawsuits being filed. You know, Google has now been found to be an illegal monopoly, you know, three times over in separate cases. The case against Amazon is still proceeding. So yeah, I mean, you know, I do think that there’s been a greater awareness of how these markets in particular can be prone to monopolization, right?

I think one of, the big shift was that in the early 2000s, there was a view that to set up one of these companies, all you need is, you know, a couple of high school dropouts in a garage with a good idea. And that the entry costs were very low, and that, if anything, the government should err on the side of inaction because these markets were so fast-moving, so dynamic that we didn’t want these, you know, arrogant government officials to start meddling. And so there was a, you know, almost a deliberate policy choice to err on the side of inaction from an antitrust and competition perspective. And I think, you know, fast forward even a decade from that time, there was a much greater recognition that actually there’s something about how these digital markets work, this concept of network effects, the ways that data advantages kind of reinforce themselves, that maybe these markets are even more prone to monopolization rather than less. And so maybe there should be more action and more scrutiny earlier. And so I think there was an inversion of some of those prior assumptions. –

Krugman Yeah, for people in the audience, network effects here really means that there’s a lot of these companies’ services that everybody uses, because everybody uses them, right? There’s a sort of circularity. I mean, you know, as many of us know, it’s really, really hard not to buy from Amazon now, and this is true of a lot of these companies. And you were talking about that quite early as a risk at a time when people were mostly praising it.

I’m gonna actually throw in a curveball though, which is not part of my plan here.

But one thing that, I don’t know if you’ve thought about this, but one thing that strikes me and that is really very different from the earlier antitrust debate was we would talk a lot about the power of, you know, General Motors, or the power of of corporations. But what’s interesting about this group is that these are not just corporations. They actually happen by and large to be sort of individual people, that Amazon is not just Amazon, but it’s Jeff Bezos. Facebook is not just Facebook, it’s Mark Zuckerberg. And this is, you know, this class of extraordinarily wealthy people, that’s something that’s kind of new, or it’s both new and old. It’s hearkening back to the 19th century. Have you thought about that at all?

Khan It’s a really interesting point. And it gets to the fact that, you know, there were massive intellectual and ideological changes in how we do antitrust. But that was just part and parcel of a broader set of changes that we’ve seen across laws. And that includes things like corporate governance. And so, you know, even if you look at how the boards are structured of a company like Facebook, there was much greater reliance on basically creating different segments of shares. And so basically creating kind of super-weighted shares and ownership for people like Mark Zuckerberg, so the types of corporate accountability that you might have had through a board previously really don’t exist for individuals like him. And so there’s been not only consolidation across markets, but consolidation of power within the firm and within the corporate structure, as you’re referencing,

Krugman Which means that we kind of get into the political arena as well, ‘cause that’s so important there. And I shouldn’t talk, but just plugging something that my former employer, “The Times” just had a report that said that in the 2024 campaign, 300 billionaires accounted for 19% of all political contributions in the United States, it’s really sort of 300 families, and a fair number of them are in fact these companies that you were writing about in 2017.

Okay, so you got into the political arena. You became a very young, very dynamic and very controversial chair of the FTC. So what was that like? Actually, how did that happen? How did you get, how did Joe Biden end up recruiting you?

Khan- I mean, you’ll have to ask him, you know, what that process was like for the White House. But for me, I had spent some time working as a staffer for a congressional committee. The judiciary committee has an antitrust subcommittee where we actually did a deep investigation into Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Google and, you know, had been doing that work within government. When that wrapped up, I went back to academia and then, you know, the election happened and I got outreach to see if I’d be interested in serving at the Federal Trade Commission.

So it was a remarkable honor to get to take the helm there, especially during a time where it seemed there was a real appetite to rethink how we are using these laws, enforcing these laws. The Federal Trade Commission is an agency that was created back in 1914, has been given pretty significant powers by Congress, but for several decades, especially after the Reagan administration, had been kind of, you know, narrowing its ambition and really I think punching below its weight in some cases. And so it was an opportunity to come in and really reinvigorate the agency.

Krugman Okay, and so tell me about what you think were some of the notable targets, cases that you tried to go after, industries that you thought were interesting.

Khan- Well, we were, you know, the FTC is by all accounts a pretty small agency. At its peak when I was there, it was around 1400 employees. And so we had to be extraordinarily focused on prioritization, and, you know, every investigation you’re doing is another investigation you’re not doing. So there were several factors that we looked at, one of which was just how significant is this industry for people’s day-to-day lives? And something that rose to the top of course was healthcare, where across different parts of the healthcare supply chain, we have similarly seen a lot of consolidation, be it among hospitals, be it among pharmacies, be it among these middlemen known as pharmacy benefit managers.

And in healthcare in particular, we’ve seen not only horizontal consolidation, but also vertical integration. So the same player that is the health insurer is also owning the pharmacy, is also owning the pharmacy benefit manager. We’d also seen trends such as private equity coming in and rolling up different physician practices and then jacking up prices. And, you know, week after week, month after month, we would hear from Americans about just how devastating this was for their day-to-day lives. I mean, we would routinely hear from people about how they were having to ration lifesaving medicines, skip doses of lifesaving medicines, people who had had family members pass away because they didn’t wanna, you know, use up all their insulin because it was so expensive. And so the kind of stakes here are literally life or death. And so we spent a lot of time focused on healthcare markets. That included things like whenever pharmaceutical companies were trying to merge or buy one another, we would be especially vigilant to make sure that these mergers were not gonna be used to snuff out new innovative drugs that actually would have brought down prices.

We also looked very closely at these middlemen, these pharmacy benefit managers, because we’d heard a lot about how their practices were both contributing to higher drug prices, but also squeezing out independent pharmacies and resulting in higher prices there. So I would say, you know, I think the tech work of the FTC gets a lot of attention, but I think, you know, healthcare was just as important an area of focus for us.

Krugman Okay. And yeah, there were some of those, there were some sort of scandalous acquisitions and then exploitations involving drugs. I’m trying to remember now. I’m sure you know better than me. But there were some really drastic cases that made headlines. And did you feel that you made headway on those?

Khan Yeah, I mean, you know, one of the most notorious was Martin Shkreli, AKA Pharma Bro, who, you know, bought up a drug and jacked up the price thousands of percent. And you know, that was a case that the FTC litigated, the FTC won, and then also secured a lifetime ban for Martin Shkreli, where he is not allowed to be in the pharma industry anymore. There’s some other cases that are still ongoing in healthcare, but we did successfully stop hospital mergers across the country. There’s a lot of evidence that when hospitals merge, prices and costs tend to go up and quality tends to go down. We’ve also seen the rise of healthcare deserts across the country, where, you know, people are gonna have to drive, you know, over 100 miles to get to the nearest hospital as opposed to 10 miles. And so, you know, there’s a lot more work to be done there, but there was some progress.

The other big area of focus for us was labor markets, where, you know, there was a lot of attention on how market power affected consumers, but over the last decade we’ve also seen more and more economic research showing that labor markets can actually be much less competitive than people had previously assumed. And that that also ends up being bad for workers in terms of resulting in lower wages, more stagnant wages. We were very focused both on how mergers were affecting workers, and so if a merger would be proposed, we would look not just at its potential impact on, say, patients, but also on, say, healthcare workers. And then we were very focused on this issue of non-competes, with this contractual provision that basically locks workers in place. –

Krugman Yeah, people don’t know, again, non-competes, maybe a fair number of people in this audience have actually encountered it, but yeah, you non-compete is basically saying, you know, if you leave, you cannot basically work for somebody who’s competing with us, can’t take a job, you can’t yourself compete with us. It’s a tremendous lock on the labor market. And did you make any progress? I’m unclear exactly how far we got on that.

Khan Yeah, so these are provisions that started off in the C-suite, but basically have proliferated. So now a conservative estimate is that one in five Americans has been governed by a non-compete, and that these are affecting, you know, security guards, janitors, fast food workers, people making, you know, close to minimum wage.

And that these have a real abusive effect. I mean, when we put out, so basically we both brought lawsuits against coercive non-competes that resulted in companies dropping them for thousands of workers. For example, we brought a case against the security guard company in Michigan that had been locking down, you know, again, minimum wage-making security guards, preventing them from taking jobs that were better fits. And this was resulting in people’s wages being depressed.

We also put out a proposed rule that would basically eliminate the vast majority of non-competes in this country.

And when we put that out, we got 26,000 comments from people across the country, from every state. We heard, for example, from a bartender in Florida who shared how she had been harassed at her job. It spurred her to go find another job. And when she, you know, basically made moves to go start working at a different restaurant, her original employer basically threatened her with a lawsuit for tens of thousands of dollars. And so she had to choose basically, you know, do I try to escape this horrible work situation where I’m getting harassed, or do I basically risk becoming bankrupt because of this lawsuit? And so, you know, there’s a financial impact here, but there’s also just a real coercive impact on people’s day-to-day lives. And it was just horrifying, candidly, to just see all the ways that employers have abused these contractual provisions.

Krugman Okay, one more question about the past before we come up to New York City. Your time at the FTC coincided with the big inflation spike, which is like, roughly 2021 to 2023. And certainly up my alley, there was a lot of back and forth and quite angry debate about the role of monopoly power, about sellers’ inflation. How much of this is actually overheating of the economy or supply chain, and how much of this is just companies exploiting, you know, taking advantage, and who will notice if we raise prices now? And how much did you weigh in on that, and do you have views about it?

Khan- I mean, we certainly saw our job as making sure that no firm was, that Americans were not facing higher prices because of illegal business practices. And that took a couple of forms.

You know, when you have industries that are more concentrated, so if you have a smaller number of competitors, it can be easier for them effectively to collude. This is kind of, you know, anti-competition one-on-one, the idea that if you have three firms in a market, it’s gonna be much easier for them to basically fix pricesthan if you have 300 firms, where it’s just much more difficult to coordinate. And in as much as we had seen markets where you would now have had a smaller number of firms, and sometimes it seemed like they were using their earnings calls to even, you know, flag for one another that, “Hey, we think, you know, we’re gonna keep prices high,” and do some of that signaling. That was something that we monitored.

I think more generally though, there was this issue of how longstanding trends of consolidation had made markets more fragile, so that a single disaster in one place could drive up prices much more acutely. We saw this, for example, with infant formula, where back in 2022, there were major shortages in infant formula nationally. Infant formula is a market that has consolidated, there are four major manufacturers. And these shortages were a result of basically a contamination in one factory in America. And it was just an illustration of how concentrating production can also concentrate risk. And so that’s another way in which we saw a real relationship between diminishing competition and, you know, higher prices and more situations where you had greater vulnerability to abrupt spikes in prices.

Krugman Actually, that’s something I never thought of. Because I was aware very much during that period of how concentrated production was physically. It was always a kind of a shock to discover there was something that was used around the world, and a fire in one factory somewhere could disrupt. But I never really thought of that as being linked to, that the concentration was not just that the technology mandated it, but it was actually the market consolidation, was actually the monopolization. So you thought that that was a significant factor in all of that?

Khan- I mean, look, it’s, you know, you always want more empirical research figuring out what’s going on. And you wanna do, you know, market by market analysis. But certainly there were some markets where it did seem there was a relationship between increased physical concentration of production and, you know, greater susceptibility to these cascading risks.

Krugman Okay, well jump forward not that far in time, but move north a couple of hundred miles from DC. So how did you get, again, you may not know exactly, but how did you end up being associated with Mamdani? Was it during the campaign? Was it already before he won? And tell us about that.

Khan So yeah, when Assembly Member Mamdani was running for mayor last spring, he reached out and wanted to chat about, you know, different parts of his agenda and what he was thinking about, especially on this issue of affordability. He’s somebody that is extraordinarily curious, and he really wanted to understand and get to the bottom of what are the real drivers of increasing costs for people across the city, be it for them as consumers, be it for them as workers, be it for them as small businesses. And, you know, one of the first kind of videos that he did that really took off was one of him going to a halal cart driver, and saying, “Hey, I noticed that your chicken and rice used to cost $8 a couple years ago, and now it costs $10. Why is that, what happened?”

And so he was really oriented towards understanding substantively why is it that people are seeing higher prices? And so we, you know, met and spoke and chatted about, you know, what are some of the policy levers that New York City and a mayor in particular may have at his disposal? And so, you know, we stayed in touch. His team would kind of ask for feedback on some of their campaign proposals, on, you know, taking on corporate power. And so I was, you know, really thrilled to see him win, and then was honored to get to co-chair his transition.

Krugman Okay. And so you had, you were part of the transition, but not in the, or in addition to the usual sense. You had a team that was specifically working on these issues. You weren’t just sort of helping him pick the various offices?

Khan- So a main part of the job was helping assemble the team. I in particular was focused on the top economic and legal jobs. But alongside the appointments and personnel process, I was also helping on policy planning and wanting to make sure that, you know, coming in on day one as mayor, he had a robust set of options before him in terms of what he might be able to do to bring down costs. And so we had, you know, a little, a group of folks that were running those things down, be it in the context of small business or consumers or workers or energy. And so there was both a personnel and a policy component.

Krugman Okay, does that policy team still exist in some form? I mean, I know that you don’t formally have a role in this mayor’s administration, but do you still have a group of people that are working on this?

Khan So I mean, you know, now that he is mayor, he has a full team internally. We have kind of a loose coalition of folks outside that, you know, are still very eager to make sure that they are being provided, you know, policy options, and able to think expansively about what some of those tools and authorities may be.

So there is an ongoing policy process. I know there are a lot of organizations across the city that are kind of, you know, working on making sure that city hall is well-equipped when it comes with policy proposals.

Krugman Yeah, I have to say, it always shocks me when I think about how little I know about how anything is run in the city I live in. But anyway, it’s quite, it’s an enormous thing. How big is the city? There must, I have no idea how many employees the city even has, but it’s enormous.

Khan Yeah, I mean, it’s a huge bureaucracy. And it was really interesting just even having to learn kind of new agency acronyms and just like how the org chart works. And it’s phenomenal. I mean, it’s a enormous responsibility, and it spans everything from, you know, needing to make sure that when there’s a huge snowstorm, that, you know, snow’s plowed, that the streets are safe, to thinking more long term about things like housing, and how do we make sure that New York is a place where people can actually afford to live?

Krugman Yeah, we have a severe acronym shortage, by the way. I mean, I was having a whole conversation with somebody I know, who’s actually in the audience, about DOE. We were going back and forth, and it finally occurred to me that they were talking about the Department of Education. I was thinking of the Department of Energy in Washington. And so the conversation was total nonsense because we had two different DOEs.

Anyway. So let’s talk about affordability in New York. What are the areas where you, I mean, mayor has somewhat limited power, but maybe more than people think. What are some of the areas where you think that really things can be done? I wanna get into them a bit. And then well, if there may be some big ones that we need to talk about further.

But tell me, so I know that you’ve talked about, you’ve been, you know, the press reports have emphasized things like food delivery, real estate brokers’ fees. Can you tell us a little bit about each of those?

Khan So I think about it as different categories. You know, I think there’s one category that really is about taking on these extractive middlemen. And you know, you can call it market power, you can just call it corporate abuse. But I think we’ve seen across markets just this nickel and dimeing. You know, the proliferation of these junk fees, where a company will advertise one price, and by the time you go to check out it’s, you know, suddenly, you know, $20 more expensive because of these random service delivery fees, and you don’t really know who that’s going to or what it’s for.

We’ve seen things like the rise of subscription traps, where firms will make it very easy to sign up for a subscription, or you’ll be enrolled without even knowing, and then to cancel you have to jump through all of the hoops. And so, you know, there was a focus on some of these just bread and butter consumer protection issues. And so some of the first executive orders that the mayor signed were directing his administration across the board to be very focused on making sure that we had fair pricing, and that people were not being taken advantage of in this way, be it in the context of food delivery, be it in the context of housing.

The administration is doing these rental rip-off hearings to really hear from people about what are some of the worst abuses that they face from their landlords, be it in the context of these random fees or even in just, you know, basic conditions and habitability. So there is a corporate accountability plank to the affordability agenda that the mayor has been very open about wanting to double down on.

Then there’s a part of the affordability agenda that’s really about making sure that markets are fair and honest, and that in areas like housing, you know, that you can actually build. He’s also very focused on small business, and making sure that small businesses are not being squeezed, again, be it by arbitrary middlemen or by rules and regulations that are outdated or don’t make sense or were pushed at the behest of big firms, but don’t really make sense for small firms. And so those are just a couple of the kind of core pillars of how they’re thinking about affordability. –

Krugman So some of these things, I mean, food delivery, actually again, I didn’t really look into it until I started doing research for this talk, but food delivery is one of those, it’s a lot like, in some ways, like Amazon. The drivers are atomistic, a large group, and the customers are a large group, but then largely DoorDash and a couple of others just sort of stand in the middle. And it must be very similar issues to the kinds of things you were worried about.

Khan Yeah, there are a lot of analogies between how these dominant platforms operate and abuse their power, be it in the context of food delivery, be it in the context of ride sharing. And so there’s kind of a, you know, take on extractive middlemen, holds, you know, powerful corporations to account component. There is a component that’s about making sure that we don’t have, you know, regulations or red tape that are skewing the market away from allowing small businesses to compete. And then I would also say there’s a pillar that’s thinking about public options, and what are instances in which the state could actually be playing a more assertive role?

So this is, you know, gets to the fact that he talked about having public grocery stores, initially one in every borough, has rolled out plans for universal childcare. And so I would say, you know, there are different components of this, but it very much includes public options.

Krugman Okay, that’s really interesting. So that’s, by the way, that’s a really important point, that one way to deal with these things is to just have the public provide, not socialization, but the availability of a public version.

And so actually tell me what’s happening, I mean on... Sorry, two conflicting thoughts collided there and exploded. Anyway.

Actually tell me, talk about the grocery store thing, ‘cause that’s one of the things that people, you know, some people went wild negatively about. But it’s just a really interesting story about what you’re thinking there.

Khan Yeah, I mean, the mayor, during the campaign, talked about how there were parts of New York City where you have food deserts, and where you don’t really have access to affordable, healthy food. And, you know, one proposal that he put forward on the table was the idea that you could have public provisioning of groceries. And they’d do a pilot, there would be one in every borough. You know, some of the reaction to that was a little bit hysterical. But, you know, we have like, military bases across the countrywhere you have government-owned grocery stores. You know, it’s not as exotic as I think some of the critics assumed it was.

And it really gets to this point of, you know, you wanna make sure that the market is working honestly and fairly

Staff- Sorry to interrupt. Your microphone isn’t working very well. –

Khan Thank you. - Can I get this? - Yeah. You wanna make sure that the market is able to work fairly and honestly and competitively, but in some instances you’re gonna want to have the government also play a role, and basically, you know, provide additional competition. Again, not to own the entire market, but to provide an option and a competitive force in ways that could have a salutary effect too.

Krugman Okay, just another diversion here. But kind of along those lines, one of the things that, you were talking a lot about healthcare in your time at the FTC, and consolidation. And healthcare is an area where New York City actually has a lot of public, there are a lot of public options. I was actually kinda shocked, one of my students when I was teaching my class here did a paper on just how much of the New York City health system is in fact publicly-owned. Have you looked into that? I’m sure you must have.

Khan Yeah, it’s certainly something that is top of mind, as the mayor and his administration think about, you know, how do we make sure that the biggest, you know, pain points for people in terms of their monthly bills are being taken care of. Healthcare of course is a major one. And especially given what’s happening in DC resulting in, you know, skyrocketing premiums,

I think there’s a special obligation to make sure that cities and governments are using the full might of their leverage and authority to bring down prices. You know, you’ve seen even places like California announce things like public provisioning of insulin. During the recent governor’s race, you had now Governor Spanberger in Virginia talk about wanting to create a publicly-owned pharmacy benefit manager. So there certainly are a lot of proposals on the table that would have the city or the state play a much more muscular role in the direct public provisioning. I think there’s also a question of, once you have that government role, you know, how are you using that leverage?

One thing that the mayor also talked about during the campaign was, you know, wanting to look at things like the nonprofit status of hospitals, and whether that’s something that still fully makes sense, or wanting to make sure that the kind of, you know, hospitals are upholding their end of the bargain in terms of what they’re supposed to follow through on if they’re actually able to organize as nonprofits. So, you know, there’s a lot on the table there too.

Krugman The mayor has actually basically at least gotten, in principle has gotten the pre-K, the free pre-K. But the two big ones that are still very much up in the air, as far as I know. What do I know? I don’t, you know, I just live here. But the two that sort of are in really have gotten people sort of both cheering and wrapped up are the, first of all, the rent stabilization. Let’s talk about that first for a second. How involved have you been in that, and what do you think is happening?

Khan So that’s something that is basically decided by this Rent Guidelines Board. It’s, you know, a board where the mayor gets to appoint certain individuals. He’s announced who he wants to appoint. And so that’s a process that’s gonna play out in terms of them making, you know, independent determinations about what to do. And so that’s still in process.

Krugman Okay, and free buses. That’s the one that, you know, again, people go wild, and it’s really, it’s an interesting discussion. Do you wanna, do you have anything to say about that? Probably not. Well, tell me where you are on that. I don’t mean not to wanna talk about it, but I’m not sure if that’s, how much that’s in your wheelhouse, but.

Khan Yeah, I mean, you know, I think he has made the case for it very effectively in terms of just the enormous externalities in terms of the huge benefits that arise from having buses that are fast and free, and just why that’s so important for kind of, you know, making the city a better place to live. That is something that is kind of wrapped up in these broader budgetary discussions involving Albany. And so, you know, something that I’ll say, just stepping back, as you look across these different policy levers and authorities, there are some that are more unilaterally within the mayor’s control, or at least where control resides at the city level, so all you need is kind of city council plus the mayor. And then there are ones that really require the buy-in and agreement of Albany, be it the governor, be it the state assembly. And so it’s kind of a tapestry of what things can he do unilaterally versus kind of has to work very closely with other actors. –

Krugman Well, that kind of brings me to where I was planning to go anyway, which is the, you know, obviously you’re quite a heck of an economist, when that arises. But your background is law. And one of the things at least press reports suggest that you’ve really been doing is looking for, basically exploring what are the mayor’s powers? Anything you wanna talk about? ‘Cause that’s a really interesting, you know, kind of thing, that takes a lot of expertise that many of us don’t have. But how has that search gone? –

Khan Yeah, I mean, it’s really a project that is informed by my experience at the federal level, where I was pretty stunned to come into federal government and see all sorts of federal authorities, so laws that Congress had passed instructing federal agencies to enforce certain laws that had just been forgotten about. And you know, the laws existed on the books, but were not actively being enforced by agencies, sometimes because there was a sense that, oh, this has kind of fallen out of fashion, sometimes it just never was really prioritized by political leadership. And so, you know, oftentimes, especially in places like DC there’s a huge amount of conversation and discussion about new laws, and the need for new legislation, and we need, you know, Congress to do this and that. And I think that can sometimes detract from a real focus on what laws already exist, what tools already exist, what authorities already exist?

And so, you know, at the FTC, for example, we were very focused even on things like making sure companies are not lying about whether their products are made in America. This is something that Congress back in 1994 had instructed the FTC to start enforcing against, basically, you know, if a business is saying its products are made in America, but they’re actually made in China, you know, that’s illegal and they should be penalized. And there are certain consumer protection elements of that, but it’s also about creating a fair marketplace so that businesses that are honest are not losing out to firms that are being dishonest.

And so that was, you know, one thing that just the agency had not prioritized even enforcing that, you know, during my tenure we took more seriously. There were all sorts of other examples of, you know, laws that Congress had passed, you know, instructions they had given the FTC in terms of what to enforce. There’s this law that goes back to the Great Depression, the Robinson-Patman Act, that’s really about making sure we don’t have illegal forms of price discrimination, and that small businesses are having the same opportunities as large businesses in terms of the deals that are being offered. That’s something that the government stopped enforcing basically in the late 1990s. And we would actually have general counsels admit to us that they didn’t even advise their firms to abide by this law because there was just so much non-enforcement. And they were basically like, until and unless you guys start enforcing it, we’re not even gonna tell our executives that they have to follow this law.

So, you know, there was just a real sense of wanting to make sure we were using all of our tools, being faithful to the laws that Congress had passed, that kind of informed my desire to make sure that this mayoral administration was similarly gonna be kind of faithful, you know, executors of the laws that already exist. As well as wanting to make sure that, you know, given his focus on affordability, on wanting to make sure that, you know, working class New Yorkers can live here comfortably and with dignity, that he knew all of the tools and authorities that he has at his disposal to do that.

Krugman And are there any good examples comparable to sort of Robinson-Patman Act that are mayoral prerogatives that have not been exercised?

Khan Well interestingly, there are some city council efforts right now to think about whether there should be a New York City level of Robinson-Patman. So, you know, there are some discussions about that. You know, there’s a law that bans unconscionable practices in New York City that goes back to the 1970s that basically can presumably be activated to take on forms of unfair or, you know, unconscionable pricing, especially in context where people might be captive consumers. And so imagine a situation in which, you know, you’re a patient at a hospital, the hospital gives you, you know, some kind of Tylenol, but they end up billing like $60 for even though it costs, you know, $6 at the pharmacy down the street. You know, is that an unconscionable practice because you are basically a captive customer? Or similarly if you’re, you know, at a stadium or a concert venue, when you just have much fewer options, are there certain rules that firms should really be following in terms of how they do pricing? So that’s just kind of one bucket of, you know, of potential tools that may exist.

Krugman I’m sure that other people have suggested this, but there a little bit of an analogy, which you might not like, to Robert Moses, who was famously, you know, was expert at reading the fine print in legislation and finding things he could do. And there’s a little, I mean, hopefully with better intentions. But do you ever think of yourself as being sort of the good version of Robert Moses?

Khan I mean, I think, you know, any lawyer will think their job is to read the fine print very closely. And you know, I think when you’re coming into these types of jobs, there’s such an enormous responsibility, and oftentimes not a lot of time, right? You don’t know how much time you’re gonna have. And I think, you know, when you are elected with as strong a mandate as Mayor Mamdani has, I think you really have a huge obligation to make sure that you really are mining every single tool and authority that may exist to make life better for people. And that’s something he’s very committed to.

Krugman So the whole, I assume you must be thinking about this, but the whole concern, particularly, you know, if you read Murdoch publications and so on, is that all of this attempt to serve affordability, to help the working class, is gonna lead the businesses and the wealthy to flee the city. How are you feeling about all of that? Any comments on that?

Khan I mean, it’s interesting. I think we’ve heard a lot of speculation about that. I mean, the business press that I’ve read has suggested that actually we see kind of major, you know, Fortune 100 companies actually re-upping their leases and expanding their physical footprint in New York City rather than fleeing. The mayor’s point has also been that we’re already seeing an exodus in New York City, and that’s an exodus of working class people. And shouldn’t we be worried about working class people having to flee too? I think-- (audience applauding) You know, he’s also shared that in conversations with some of these same CEOs, they’ve recognized that policies that make New York City more affordable ultimately are gonna be good for their business oftentimes too, in as much as it allows more of their employees to actually live here and really expands the talent pool. So, you know, I think you’re always gonna hear some of that grumbling, and sometimes even hysteria. And of course, you wanna look closely at the research and, you know, at the empirics of what might actually happen. But I think, you know, there is a lot of evidence suggesting that some of these policies are gonna have just much greater impact than harm.

Krugman Okay, I can’t resist. One of my favorite lines in all this was, you know, some businesses actually have moved to Florida, but there was some Wall Street type who tried it and said, “The problem with moving to Florida is that you have to live in Florida.” So anyway. Okay, so you’re fairly optimistic that enough businesses and wealthy people see the benefits of a better New York for the people of New York will outweigh whatever taxes they might have to pay or regulations they might face.

Khan I mean, I think there are a whole bunch of data points that point in that direction, yes.

Krugman Thank you so much! It’s been great.

Khan Thank you.

Quoting Kyle Daigle

[GitHub] platform activity is surging. There were 1 billion commits in 2025. Now, it's 275 million per week, on pace for 14 billion this year if growth remains linear (spoiler: it won't.)

GitHub Actions has grown from 500M minutes/week in 2023 to 1B minutes/week in 2025, and now 2.1B minutes so far this week.

Kyle Daigle, COO, GitHub

Tags: github, github-actions

Vulnerability Research Is Cooked

Vulnerability Research Is Cooked

Thomas Ptacek's take on the sudden and enormous impact the latest frontier models are having on the field of vulnerability research.

Within the next few months, coding agents will drastically alter both the practice and the economics of exploit development. Frontier model improvement won’t be a slow burn, but rather a step function. Substantial amounts of high-impact vulnerability research (maybe even most of it) will happen simply by pointing an agent at a source tree and typing “find me zero days”.

Why are agents so good at this? A combination of baked-in knowledge, pattern matching ability and brute force:

You can't design a better problem for an LLM agent than exploitation research.

Before you feed it a single token of context, a frontier LLM already encodes supernatural amounts of correlation across vast bodies of source code. Is the Linux KVM hypervisor connected to the hrtimer subsystem, workqueue, or perf_event? The model knows.

Also baked into those model weights: the complete library of documented "bug classes" on which all exploit development builds: stale pointers, integer mishandling, type confusion, allocator grooming, and all the known ways of promoting a wild write to a controlled 64-bit read/write in Firefox.

Vulnerabilities are found by pattern-matching bug classes and constraint-solving for reachability and exploitability. Precisely the implicit search problems that LLMs are most gifted at solving. Exploit outcomes are straightforwardly testable success/failure trials. An agent never gets bored and will search forever if you tell it to.

The article was partly inspired by this episode of the Security Cryptography Whatever podcast, where David Adrian, Deirdre Connolly, and Thomas interviewed Anthropic's Nicholas Carlini for 1 hour 16 minutes.

I just started a new tag here for ai-security-research - it's up to 11 posts already.

Tags: security, thomas-ptacek, careers, ai, generative-ai, llms, nicholas-carlini, ai-ethics, ai-security-research

The cognitive impact of coding agents

A fun thing about recording a podcast with a professional like Lenny Rachitsky is that his team know how to slice the resulting video up into TikTok-sized short form vertical videos. Here's one he shared on Twitter today which ended up attracting over 1.1m views!

That was 48 seconds. Our full conversation lasted 1 hour 40 minutes.

Tags: ai-ethics, coding-agents, agentic-engineering, generative-ai, podcast-appearances, ai, llms, cognitive-debt

Donald Trump Isn't Sounding Like Himself

Donald Trump isn’t sounding like himself, and that’s terrifying. Hi, Paul Krugman here with a brief update on Saturday afternoon.

Not my usual thing. No economics, no analytics, just I felt I needed to say something. On Wednesday, Trump gave a speech, which was... pretty depressing. He was low energy, listless, and seemed to be disconnected from reality, insisting that everything is going great in this war and everything is going great across the board. And in terms of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, well, it’s somebody else’s problem. And the Strait may naturally open by itself, which didn’t sound like leadership.

In some ways it sounded like Trump, always living in a fantasy world in which things are going his way. But if you thought about the outcome for the world, it seemed to be pointing towards the U.S. never admitting it openly, but implicitly basically giving up and leaving a stronger Iran, but with the Strait of Hormuz opening up — maybe with tolls collected by the regime in Iran, and just a diminished, weakened U.S., but better than some of the alternatives.

Today Trump put up a Truth Social post, which said that if Iran doesn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, “all hell will reign down on them.” That was how he put it. All hell will rain down. Misspelled rain, but OK. And then finished it up with glory be to God. GOD in caps.

Wow. So first of all, this is a completely different picture suddenly. Aside from the Strait of Hormuz not being our problem to we will commit massive war crimes, presumably. That’s the only thing that makes sense here, unless they open it up, which is pretty bad.

And also... I don’t think Trump has ever said “glory be to God.” That doesn’t sound like him. That sounds almost as if Pete Hegseth wrote this post, which maybe in some sense he did. The misspellings and all do look like Trump in his own hand, but it feels like this is the influence of our religious fanatic Secretary of War, or as people in the Pentagon apparently call him the Secretary of War Crimes.

This is really bad. It’s hard to see what happens in 48 hours. It’s clear that Trump, for all his pretense of, “I’m always winning,” is aware of how completely he screwed things up, that he’s aware that he has basically led America into an epic strategic defeat. I don’t think he cares about that from the point of view of America, but he is realizing what this has done to him — that he will probably quite rapidly lose his grip on U.S., politics, and certainly to the extent that he cares about his legacy, it’s not going to be his wonderful ballroom. It’s going to be that he’s the man who single-handedly led America to one of its greatest defeats ever. But now what?

It would be one thing if he just kind of slunk away into the night, which is what we would have hoped would happen, but instead it sounds like he’s unable to accept it and that he is going to try and do something truly awful in an attempt to somehow redeem himself and the situation.

If we had a functioning democracy, this would be 25th Amendment time. This guy should not have any authority at all. Finger on the button, although I don’t think we’re talking about nukes, but he shouldn’t have any authority on matters of state violence when this is the kind of mood he’s in. Just in general, although religiosity is often expected of American leaders, saying glory be to God before you unleash violence, that is not what used to be the American way.

Anyway, I’m scared. I wonder very much what the next few days will bring because this is looking like basically a president who is losing it and unfortunately losing it in a way that can really make the world a much worse place very fast.

I guess enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Economic growth and the rise of large firms

Rich and poor countries differ in the size distribution of business firms. This paper shows that the right tail of the firm size distribution systematically grows thicker with economic development, both within countries over time and across countries. The author develops a simple idea search model with both endogenous growth and an endogenous firm size distribution. The economy features an asymptotic balanced growth path. Along the transition, Gibrat’s law holds at each date, and the right tail of the firm size distribution becomes monotonically thicker. The firm size distribution converges to Zipf’s distribution. The model also implies that policies favouring large firms can improve welfare due to the externality associated with idea search. Finally, the author extends the results obtained in the simple model to a general class of idea search models. Under common functional form assumptions, this model stands out as the only model within that class that is consistent with both Gibrat’s law and a thickening right tail.

That is by Zhang Chen, and a revised version will be appearing in Econometrica.

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Saturday assorted links

1. Nyege Nyege Tapes.

2. Does it help poets to be religious?

3. Martin Jay on Habermas.

4. U.S. prime age employment rate is near an all-time high.  For a different perspective, here is NYT on AI and the job market.  And new measures of AI task performance from MIT.

5. China’s AI education experiment.

6. Real retail U.S. electricity prices have fallen since 2010.

7. Compare ride-share prices.

8. Is Mandarin being Europeanized?

9. 2000 or so additional pages of Leibniz will be published.

10. The game theory of the NCAA EO.

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Free Speech for ‘Gay Conversion’

Conversion Therapy Ruling Tests Free Speech Limits

Earlier this week, the majority-conservative Supreme Court ruled 8-1 that Colorado’s laws barring therapists from talking to minor clients about “gay conversion” had stepped over lines insisting on freedom of speech.

Colorado’s 2019 law, which targeted “conversion therapy,” reached deep into the conversations between mental health counselors and their clients under age 18. Therapists could face discipline or fines for saying things to change their clients’ “behaviors or gender expressions or to eliminate or reduce sexual or romantic attractions toward individuals of the same sex.”

Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, who wrote the opinion for the court, said therapists can “affirm a client’s sexual orientation,” but cannot be prohibited “from speaking in any way that helps a client ‘change’ his sexual attractions or behaviors.” He called it “viewpoint discrimination,” making a distinction between information about medical treatment and treatments themselves.

Clearly, “gay conversion” is promoted as good social and medical policy by the political right.

Liberals Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan concurred about the overreach of the law  but warned that the decision “enables ‘speech on only one side’ — the State’s preferred side — of an ideologically charged issue.” Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson objected because the health of minors will be adversely affected.

Gay conversion therapy has been widely discredited as ineffective and possibly harmful by medical organizations, including the American Medical Association, the American Psychological Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics.

The case goes back to a lower court for review.

Not Free Speech for All

So, how does this support for free speech affect issues when conservatives oppose them?

But the same speech protections apparently do not apply to medical treatments that conservatives oppose.  Among the various states that have adopted laws restricting abortion, for example, several have outlawed providing information about abortions or ways to obtain medical treatments out of state. The feds have joined states in barring money for Planned Parenthood, among other clinics, because they include advice as well as treatments.

While providing general information about euthanasia often is seen as protected free speech, state and federal laws say assisting, advising, or encouraging suicide is criminal behavior in most states. The federal Assisted Suicide Ban Act restricts funding for promoting assisted suicide.

Laws abound surrounding “quack medicine” towards preventing deceptive promotion as well as fraud and illegal practice, particularly when promoting unproven treatments as effective for diagnosing or curing diseases. But it is perfectly okay in this version of free speech to appoint people who know nothing about vaccine safety to set policy that violates every teaching of science and medicine.

Obviously, the political right seeks bans on referring to – not just hiring and promotion actions — diversity, equity and inclusion issues in schools and universities, in libraries and museums, or to issues of fairness in private sector hiring. For a state legislature to insist on specific limitations on college curriculum is specifically to abridge freedom of speech as well as the academic freedoms to explore disparate theories in a way that makes universities essential.

The Court’s argument is that it only rules on specific cases that make it to its review. But the Court picks its cases understanding that its guidance has wider implications. The court majority would say this case warns about “aggressive” attack on conservative therapist.

The rest of us might see the decision as picking just whose free speech is protected.

Frequently Asked Questions On this Conversion Therapy Ruling

Q: What did the Supreme Court rule about conversion therapy?
A: The Court ruled that Colorado’s law restricting what therapists can say to minors about changing sexual orientation violated free speech protections.

Q: Is conversion therapy considered safe or effective?
A: Major medical organizations say conversion therapy is ineffective and can be harmful.

Q: Why is this ruling controversial?
A: Critics argue it creates inconsistencies in how free speech is protected, especially compared to restrictions on other medical topics.

Q: What happens next in the case?
A: The case returns to a lower court for further review based on the Supreme Court’s guidance.


Trump’s War with Iran

As we saw, Donald Trump’s choice for a national television address Wednesday night on the war with Iran clearly fell flat. It neither won new supporters nor did it clarify the murkiness before us in exiting from conflict that still lacks immediate purpose.

Since the speech:

–The strategic outlook remained dicey. Though Trump talked about having achieved all his goals, we face more fighting with promises to bomb Iran into the “stone ages” (technically history says there were three) towards no apparent end. It seemed as likely as not that Trump would greenlight sending in the Marines gathered in the region. The speech did nothing to clarify the gap between military success and diplomatic ends and it underscored that Iran would have its own say about when conflict ends. Trump did nothing to court the very allies he now expects to jump in to clear the Strait of Hormuz where Iran halted shipping in response to his preemptive attack.

–Militarily, the U.S. hit bridges and vowed to hit utilities and desalination plants as bombing resumed. Two U.S. warplanes crashed after being hit, including a F15E fighter jet, with a rescue under fire of one airman and another still missing. We saw mixed reports about Iran’s ability to recover from strikes on mobile missile launchers, raising questions about U.S. claims of destruction and wonder about whether Iran has the ability to hide its weapons and targeting equipment.

–The economic roiling continues, Financial futures markets  and the general markets continued their slide and oil worries increased.

–Unaddressed entirely ware Israel’s continuing conflicts, including an apparent desire to occupy or annex a 25-mile stretch of Lebanon.

–Politically, Trump’s speech did nothing to widen support, and, indeed, drew attention to his own image as an aging isolationist cut off from being able to take in information as needed.

It made us wonder why the speech was needed at all. It neither formally extended nor ended the war, and it just made for more worry about uncertainty.


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Starving Genies

Since my genies seems to have all gone to rehab at the same time I have leisure (!?) to write this.

In the Expand phase, growth isn’t a curve. it’s a staircase. You grow until you approach a ceiling—some rate-limiting resource.

Either increase the supply of that resource or reduce the consumption until you get back to growth. Disaster averted!

Then the next rate-limiting resource looms and you repeat it. Then the next one. Then the next.

Eventually you know (from bumping into them) what the rate-limiting resources are and how to keep the supply curve above the demand curve. Then you can shift into Extract mode.

(Successful companies often retcon all these near-death Expand experiences to make their success seem inevitable.)

Genies

Everybody cuts limits at once. Not a coincidence, a signal.

The genie is in Expand. Hard. Usage is growing faster than almost any product in history.

When you’re about to hit the ceiling, you have two choices. To bend the supply curve up—build more data centers, get more chips, make inference cheaper. To bend the demand curve down—slow the growth, ration the usage, make free/cheap tiers less attractive.

The model providers are doing both, but bending demand down is the surprise move, at least to me. Who shuts the rocket motor off mid-air?

The twist here is competitive dynamics. Normally, bending demand down in the face of competition is suicide. Users leave. They go to the competitor. You lose. Expand doesn’t forgive.

The Bottleneck?

In Expand, the first question is always: what’s the next rate-limiting resource?

Chips? Nvidia supply is constrained, H100s are scarce, everyone’s fighting for allocation. Except Google makes their own. Amazon makes their own. Anthropic has a preferential supply agreement. And all three still cut limits at the same time. Not chips.

Raw compute capacity? Data centers, cooling, power delivery. Real constraints, multi-year buildouts. But physical constraints hit different companies at different times — different footprints, different geographies. You’d see variation. You see synchrony. Not physical capacity.

The economics of inference? The ratio of what it costs to serve a query to what users pay. Broken at scale, especially for free users. This one feels right until—they have basically unlimited capital. The compute bill is large but fundable. They’re not cutting limits because they literally can’t afford to serve you.

So what is it?

The story. Specifically, how long investors will fund giving away expensive capability while waiting for profits to catch up. That story has a shelf life. At some point you have to demonstrate a path to profitability, not just assert one. Usage limits are evidence you’re managing toward that—it’s a signal to investors, not a “we’re running out of money” decision.

That’s why all three moved together. The same investor class, the same stage, the same moment when “trust us, it’ll work out” stops being enough.

The bottleneck isn’t engineering. It’s narrative.

It’s a Race

What breaks the model cartel? Someone bends the supply curve up. Fixes the narrative. Inference gets cheaper through distillation, caching, smarter routing to smaller models. Custom silicon matures. New data center capacity comes online. One company gets meaningfully ahead on unit economics and can afford to open the throttle while competitors can’t.

That company wins the next wave.

What’s Next?

I write about augmented coding—developers working with genies all day. Usage limits bite differently for us. A power user hitting a daily cap mid-flow isn’t mildly inconvenienced. Their work stops. They have to, I don’t know, write another blog post.

For developers, caps pressure them toward the API—explicit pricing, higher ceilings, no daily cliff. For everyone else, it’s just a wall.

Limits split the user base: casual users get free but capped, developers get metered but uncapped, and the middle—technical-but-not-API-savvy power users—gets squeezed into paid consumer tiers. That’s the conversion pressure the companies actually want, even if a bit more revenue isn’t going to change the global constraint.

Uncomfortable question: are the limits temporary—a bridge while supply catches up—or are they the beginning of a new equilibrium where heavy AI usage is a premium product, not a default?

In 3X terms: is this a brief pause on the way to the next Expand staircase, or the beginning of Extract—where growth slows, margins matter, and rationing becomes a feature?

I don’t know. But I’m watching which company bends supply up first. That tells you everything about where Expand goes next.

SpaceX and Amazon spar over satellite deployments

Amazon says it will revise deployment plans for its broadband satellite constellation while denying claims from SpaceX that its current approach represents a space safety risk.

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Europe’s strategic autonomy in space will define its role in the ‘second space age’

Ariane 64 launch

Europe’s future in space really boils down to one question: can it stay ahead without relying on technology made somewhere else? As we step into what experts call the “second space age,” strategic autonomy is suddenly front and center for the European Union. And it is increasingly essential that Europe can get to, control and […]

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Artemis 2 in good shape cruising towards the moon

Artemis 2 image of Earth

A day after lighting its engine to head to the moon, the Artemis 2 Orion spacecraft is performing well with only minor issues.

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Italy’s Argotec plans to scale Florida satellite facility to meet rising US demand

Italy’s Argotec has officially opened its first U.S. satellite production facility, cementing a foothold near Kennedy Space Center in Florida to join other foreign space firms pursuing growing demand from American programs.

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White House again proposes steep NASA budget cuts

For the second consecutive year, the White House is proposing a major budget cut for NASA that would significantly impact the agency’s science programs and the International Space Station.

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Nonfiction Publishing, Under Threat, Is More Important Than Ever (New Republic)

 As an author with a forthcoming non-fiction book, it's both depressing to read that non-fiction book sales are down, but inspiring to read of the importance of books.

The New Republic considers the (diminishing) prospects and (continuing) importance of non-fiction books.

Nonfiction Publishing, Under Threat, Is More Important Than Ever
Cuts in publishing and book reviewing imperil the future of narrative nonfiction, and our understanding of the world around us. 
 by Paul Elie

 “The decline in sales of new nonfiction might reflect a changing information ecosystem,” Elizabeth Harris observed. “People looking for information can now easily turn to chatbots, YouTube, podcasts and other free online sources.” Last December, The Guardian cited NielsenIQ figures indicating a one-year drop of 8.4 percent in nonfiction book sales (twice that of fiction) and quoted a writer who had “heard publishers have soured on any nonfiction that isn’t ‘Hollywood friendly.’”

... 

"Fretful narratives about the demise of books and the rise of devices have been in play for half a century or longer. “Our world of books, like most other worlds now, is the arena of an increasingly bitter struggle for space, and for the limited reading time that a busy citizen in this electronic age can afford,” John Updike lamented when accepting the American Book Award in 1982. Narrative nonfiction in particular has faced headwinds in mass culture before. And in many respects, the challenges it faces are built in. Long fact is hard to publish and always has been. Reportage and research take time, resources, attention, and fortitude. A book can require several years to write and another year and a half to be edited, checked, printed, and publicized—only to wind up coming out during a news cycle dominated by a sex scandal, school shooting, pandemic, or war. It was as true half a century ago as it is today that readers expect to pay for fiction but are used to getting nonfiction passively through the media. 

...

"In societies where freedom is under threat, an informed citizen is countercultural and deep reading is an act of resistance. Just as protest and vigilance are essential, so is the ability to read and think. In a would-be autocracy, the autocrat aims to subsume our society’s particular narratives into his master narrative—in which his name fills the headlines, his voice and image dominate the broadcasts, and his airbrushed visage appears on the facades of government. To read a book, however, is to enter a narrative that stands outside the politics-and-media maelstrom. In a would-be autocracy, even a small bookstore—with hundreds of books, classic, recent, and current—is a space of contrary narratives, where truth is recognized as both essential and complicated." 

Advice for economics graduate students (and faculty?) vis-a-vis AI

From Isiah Andrews, via Emily Oster and the excellent Samir Varma.  A good piece, though I think it needs to more explicitly consider the most likely case, namely that the models are better at all intellectual tasks, including “taste,” or whatever else might be knockin’ around in your noggin…I am still seeing massive copium.  But the models still are not able to “operate in the actual world as a being.”  Those are the complementarities you need to be looking for, namely how you as a physical entity can enhance the superpowers of your model, or should I express that the other way around?  That might include gathering data in the field, persuading a politician, or raising money.  I am sure you can think of examples on your own.

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How should you change your life decisions if we are being watched by alien drone probes?

I’ve asked a few people that question lately, and get either no answer or very exaggerated answers.

Rep. Burchett recently raised the possibility of being terrified and not sleeping at night if UAPs are aliens.  But even if that is your immediate response, you need a more constructive medium-term adjustment to the new situation.

One option would be to pray to the aliens as gods, but I do not recommend that.

Another option is to not change anything, on the grounds that the aliens (probably?) have not been interfering in earthly affairs.  Or if they have been interfering, they might be interfering in steady ways which are compatible with you continuing your previous life course.

That is mostly a defensible stance, but it hardly seems a true marginalist should make zero adjustments in light of the new and very radical piece of information.  If nothing else, you need to consider that other people will in time respond, and you will in turn want a response to their choices.

A third option is to write more about the aliens, so that when their presence is (partially?) revealed, you will rise in status and influence.

Should you buy more insurance?  But against what exactly?

Hold more defense stocks in your portfolio, if you anticipate more defense spending as the pending human reaction to the revelations?

Consume more?  Maybe.

The most plausible decision however is to slightly lower your level of ambition.  Consider a few of the core scenarios.

If the aliens go rogue on us and end it all, the efforts you might be making now will have been for naught.

If the aliens are here to cap the level of human achievement, for instance to keep us on Earth and prevent us from exploring the galaxy, yet without harm, you also can scale back your ambition a bit.  You do not need to invest so much capital in supporting the space program.  Most of your more local ambitions however should remain untouched.  You might even become more ambitious in keeping the Earth a safe place, since escape hatches are now less likely.  Alternatively, you might think the aliens are our “saviors of last resort,” but that too probably makes you less ambitious.

A more general Bayesian update is simply that human efforts, in the broader scheme of things, have lower relative marginal products than you might have thought.  The aliens apparently have lots of powers, at least if they managed to get here.  That too militates in favor of lowering your ambitions.  Conversely, if you start believing we are the only intelligent, agentic beings in the galaxy, arguably you should increase your ambitions.  There will be fewer outside forces to stop, limit, or reverse your efforts.

To be clear, in this Bayesian update large numbers of people still should increase their ambitions, since they were not optimizing in the first place.  But they should increase those ambitions slightly less than one used to think.  And in some areas, perhaps they should not increase their ambitions at all.

Finally, you should not decrease your ambitions a lot.  For one thing, you may need an ongoing high level of energy and ambition to deal with the changes that aliens — or even the perceptions of alien presence — will bring to earthly civilization.  Furthermore, since any alien-induced uncertainty about the future is very hard to model, most people will do best by simply continuing on their current tracks.  It makes no sense to start waving around a sword to scare off the alien drone probes.

Nonetheless, some of your more extreme ambitions should be carved back just a wee bit.  Sorry about that.

I guess it is a good thing nobody is watching then.

Addendum: For this post I am indebted to a useful lunch conversation with Robin Hanson, Bryan Caplan, and Alex T.

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As Artemis II zooms to the Moon, everything seems to be going swimmingly

As the Artemis II lunar mission moved into its third day on Friday, and with the spacecraft's big engine firing behind it, the four astronauts on board had a little more downtime.

So the four crew members—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—had their first opportunities to speak with their families at length, and also did a couple of media events. They held medical conferences with physicians back in Houston, although these were apparently routine since none of the crew members were experiencing space adaptation sickness.

And they had some time to take pictures. Wiseman, the mission's commander, sent a particularly spectacular image on Friday morning that showed our planet's night side (with a relatively long exposure). Among the beautiful details in this image were not one but two auroras, as well as zodiacal light in the bottom right of the image. The Sun is visible in the distance, lighting the far side of the Earth.

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Salarymen, specialists, and small businesses

Photo by Joe Mabel via Wikimedia Commons

In the medium to long term, AI may replace all human jobs (or maybe not). But in the short term, AI doesn’t seem to be doing this yet. Employment rates for prime-age workers in the U.S. are hovering near all-time highs:

A recent survey of corporate CFOs found “little evidence of near-term aggregate employment declines due to AI.” A survey of European firms found no evidence of job reductions so far, despite rising productivity due to AI. Geoffrey Hinton, one of the pioneers of modern AI, famously predicted the imminent displacement of all radiologists by AI algorithms; in fact, radiologists are in greater demand than ever.

So even though AI may displace human beings en masse in the future, it’s not doing that today. But it is likely to change the nature of work. Software engineers, for whom “writing code” was a big part of the job description just a few months ago, are now mainly checkers and maintainers of code written by AIs. But this hasn’t eliminated the need for software engineers — at least, not yet. It has just shifted their job descriptions.

Humlum and Vestergaard (2026) find that so far, this pattern — workers shifting to new tasks without losing their jobs — is the norm, at least in Denmark:

[M]ost employers in [AI] exposed occupations have adopted chatbot initiatives, workers report productivity benefits, and new AI-related tasks are widespread. Yet…we estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours at both the worker and workplace levels, ruling out effects larger than 2% two years after the launch of ChatGPT. What moves is the structure of work: employers absorb AI through task reorganization—including new tasks in content generation, AI oversight, and AI integration—and adopters transition into higher-paying occupations where AI chatbots are more relevant, though still too few to move average earnings. [emphasis mine]

In other words, so far, AI is replacing tasks, not jobs. Alex Imas and Soumitra Shukla have written that as long as there are a few things that only humans can do, this pattern can be expected to hold. Observers of AI consistently find that its capabilities are “jagged” — it’s much better at some tasks than others.

That’s good news for people who are worried about losing their jobs (at least in the next decade). But it’s still very troubling for people trying to decide what to study. A decade ago, it made sense — or at least, it seemed to make sense — to tell young people to “learn to code”. Nowadays, what do you tell them to learn? What tasks will be the ones that humans still need to do, and which will be subsumed by AI? With AI getting steadily better at a very wide variety of tasks, it’s hard to predict exactly what humans will still be doing in five years, even if you’re pretty sure they’ll be doing something.

I have some friends who have spent the last decade or more thinking carefully about what the future of work will look like in the age of AI. No one has ever found a satisfactory answer. As AI technology has developed and changed, even the most plausible predictions for the future of human labor tend to get falsified almost as quickly as they’re made.

But I’ve been thinking about this question too, and I think I’m beginning to see the shape of an answer. I think the near future of work will mostly be divided into three types of jobs — salarymen, specialists, and small businesspeople.

Let’s talk about specialists first, because they’re the easiest to understand. A new theory by Luis Garicano, Jin Li, and Yanhui Wu describes why some workers will keep their jobs largely as they exist today.

Like many economists, Garicano et al. envision a job as a bundle of various tasks. But they also theorize that in some jobs, these tasks are only “weakly bundled” — you don’t really need the same person to do all of those tasks. For these jobs, it would be easy to divide up the tasks between different workers — or between a human and an AI. But in other jobs, the authors assume that the tasks are “strongly bundled” — the same person who does one part of the job has to do the other parts, or the job can’t be done.

The paper’s basic conclusion is that AI tends to replace weakly bundled jobs a lot more quickly than it replaces strongly bundled ones. For example, they theorize that radiologists still have jobs because even though AI can do most of the task of basic scan-reading, there are a lot of other pieces of the job that radiologists still need to do in order to deliver patients the kind of care and expertise they demand. They foresee employment in strongly bundled industries resisting automation until AI capabilities get extremely good:

The people in those strongly bundled jobs are specialists. An example of a specialist might be a blogger. AI, so far, is very good at doing background research, proofreading, and a number of other tasks that are useful for the writing process. But even though it can generate infinite amounts of text, AI is not yet good at writing. Writing communicates a unique human perspective; simply pressing a button to generate text doesn’t say what you want to say. So the tasks that make up my own job are — so far, at least — strongly bundled. AI is making me more productive, but so far it isn’t putting me in danger of unemployment.

But what about those weakly bundled jobs? Garicano et al. predict that these will begin to decline only after demand becomes sufficiently inelastic — in other words, once AI becomes so productive that its output hits diminishing returns for the consumer. After that point, automation tends to replace human labor — it becomes a way to make the same amount of stuff with fewer workers, instead of a way to make more stuff with the same amount of workers.

Until that point, there will be quite a lot of work for people in weakly bundled jobs to do, because of expanded demand. And yet at the same time, companies won’t know which tasks to hire workers for, because AI’s “jagged” strengths and weaknesses will be constantly changing.

The rapidity with which Claude Code replaced the task of code-writing demonstrates this problem. In 2025, companies hiring software engineers could judge their merit based on how good they were at writing code. In 2026, companies have to judge the merit of software engineers based on how good they are at checking and maintaining code. Those skills don’t always go together.

The solution, I think, is to hire more generalists. Instead of picking people to do specific tasks, companies will pick people whose job is to constantly learn what AI is good and bad at, and to fill in the gaps. Cedric Savarese sums up this idea:

The first stage of ‘vibe freedom’ is…[t]he dreaded report that would have taken all night looks better than anything you could have done yourself and only took a few minutes…The next stage comes almost by surprise — there’s something that’s not quite right. You start doubting the accuracy of the work — you review and then wonder if it wouldn’t have been quicker to just do it yourself in the first place…You argue with the AI, you’re led down confusing paths, but slowly you start developing an understanding — a mental model of the AI mind. You learn to recognize the confidently incorrect, you learn to push back and cross-check, you learn to trust and verify…

Curiosity becomes essential. So does the willingness to learn quickly, think critically, spot inconsistencies, and to rely on judgment rather than treating AI as infallible…That’s the new job of the generalist: Not to be an expert in everything, but to understand the AI mind enough to catch when something is off, and to defer to a true specialist when the stakes are high[.]

Essentially, AI is going to be unreliable, but not in a predictable way. Its mistakes and shortcomings will require constant human exploration and patching. This is the job of a generalist. Instead of people who do “payroll” or “back-end engineering” or “accounting”, companies will need to hire people who can do a little bit of everything, if and when the AI messes something up.

In fact, we have an example of a corporate system that relied very heavily on this type of generalist: Japan. Until very recently, Japanese companies treated their “salarymen” as almost interchangeable labor, rotating them between different divisions and requiring them to learn a wide array of tasks. You might start your career in HR, then move to accounting, then do some product design, and so on.

This system might not have been very efficient, and the lack of specialization may have contributed to Japan’s notoriously low white-collar productivity. And it may be why salaryman jobs have been in decline for many years. But in the age of AI, it may finally make sense. When human expertise is replaced by AI expertise, humans’ role may be to flit from task to task, doing whatever the AI is bad at, and supervising AI at whatever it’s good at.

In other words, instead of hiring people who are good accountants or good HR specialists or whatever, companies might start hiring people who are just good AI wranglers, and who have the agency, mental flexibility, and energy levels to keep plugging the ever-shifting holes in what AI can do. In other words, salarymen.

The salaryman system also naturally lends itself to long job tenure. If I’m a highly specialized engineer, I can take my talents and move to a different company with my human capital intact. But if I’m a generalist who does a little bit of everything, what becomes more important to my value as a worker are my human networks within a company, and my understanding of the company’s system. This makes me a much less portable worker; I’m inclined to stay at the company where my long job tenure makes me more valuable than newcomers.

You can already see hints of this happening in American companies. We’re in a “no-hire, no fire” economy — workers are hunkering down in their jobs and refusing to switch, and companies are keeping them there instead of hiring new workers:

Source: a16z

This is exactly what you’d expect from a model of firm-specific human capital — in other words, from an economy where everyone increasingly realizes that modern employees need to act like Japanese salarymen. The hypothesis here is that people don’t want to leave their jobs (and companies are happy to keep them in their jobs) because their technical skills might be devalued due to rapid AI progress; instead, they’re staying in their companies, where knowing people and knowing how things work are still important.

So America may yet come to embrace the way of the salaryman. But the third category of future employment will also be very Japanese: self-employment and small business.

Japan has long had a very high prevalence of small business ownership. It has one of the world’s largest proportions of small and medium-sized enterprises. In manufacturing as well as in retail, Japan has traditionally had a lot more small business than other OECD countries. This is now decreasing, as the population ages and business owners retire without heirs or proteges. But it still might point the way to the AI-enabled future.

AI creates leverage; it allows you to do more with a smaller team. For many businesses, the optimal size of this team will fall to only one person or a few people. Thus, I expect to see a lot of small companies sprout up, as people use AI agents to increase their productivity to the point where they only need a few employees (or even zero).

In other words, I expect AI to make the American labor system look a bit more like the Japanese labor system of the 1960s-2000s. There will be a bunch of generalists running around looking for things to do within their companies, a bunch of small businesspeople striking out on their own, and a few specialists with specific skills that still make them valuable. If you’re not one of the lucky few in the latter category, your choices will be to become a cog in an ever-changing corporate machine, or to strike out on your own and manage an AI “team” to sell some good or service directly to the consumer.

This might not be the most optimistic or enticing view of the future of work, especially to people who have lived their whole life thinking that their specific job skills are what made them valuable to society. But it’s probably better than humans becoming economically obsolete.


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Friday Squid Blogging: Jurassic Fish Chokes on Squid

Here’s a fossil of a 150-million year old fish that choked to death on a belemnite rostrum: the hard, internal shell of an extinct, squid-like animal.

Original paper.

As usual, you can also use this squid post to talk about the security stories in the news that I haven’t covered.

Blog moderation policy.

Company that Secretly Records and Publishes Zoom Meetings

WebinarTV searches the internet for public Zoom invites, joins the meetings, secretly records them, and publishes (alternate link) the recordings. It doesn’t use the Zoom record feature, so Zoom can’t do anything about it.

NSF update

The White House seeks to slash the NSF budget by nearly 55%, to $4 billion. The proposal also cuts all funding for the NSF division that funds research on the social sciences and economics. At an internal all-hands meeting on Friday, NSF leaders announced that they would dissolve the agency’s Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences directorate based on the budget request, according to two NSF staff members who shared information anonymously in order to speak freely.

Here is the full story.

The post NSF update appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Come See Us in Austin, TX

I just had two emailers in a row who I had back and forths with about the comparison between the Iran War and the Suez Crisis of 1956. And at the end of each exchange they said, hey, looking forward to the live podcast in Austin next week! (Who knows? Maybe Austin is a big Suez Crisis town.) More important, it reminded me that we’ve secured additional space and now have small additional number of tickets for next Wednesday. So if you’re in Austin or near enough that it’s convenient to get there, come see us in Austin next Wednesday night, April 8. Click here for tickets.

Watch This: Trump’s Word Is Not His Bondi

Kate and Josh talk Pam Bondi’s ouster, Trump’s Iran stemwinder and the birthright citizenship oral arguments.

Watch and subscribe to see all of our video content on our YouTube page.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

Refunds for Some

Many of the smaller businesses that took a hit from Trump’s tariffs are not, court filings suggest, set up to collect a refund, and they may never be, Layla A. Jones reports.

Congressional Pratfalls Unpacked

We discussed a wild few weeks on Capitol Hill yesterday, including a comical series of maneuvers by Senate and House Republicans, each of whom are now swallowing legislation they pledged to oppose, and a seeming attempt by Republican leadership to get Trump off their backs when it comes to the SAVE Act. Watch here.

Who’s the Next Lady on Trump’s Chopping Block

In the before times, when a president wanted to make a change at the top of a department, he had a talk with that person or have an intermediary do so and explain it was time for a change. The secretary was allowed to make the decision on their own, even if it was usually known that it wasn’t really their choice. I was thinking about that this week as Pam Bondi’s ouster speedran from hint to certainty in … what? 24 hours? Why doesn’t she just step down on her own, I thought? But I quickly realized why, just on the basis of thinking about the pattern and about Trump. If Trump is getting ready to fire you and you quit, I strongly suspect this would enrage him. He’d see it as a major and perhaps unforgivable act of defiance. Trump gets to fire you. Period. I think he would see anything else the way others might see a subordinate announcing and claiming credit for a project the executive felt he owned.

Trump gets to fire you. Period. It’s a privilege of his power. It’s a benefit of the job. And it’s a reminder, at least this is how I interpret all this, that the firing itself is as much as anything an act of presidential self-soothing, just as launching the war against Iran was. With Kristi Noem and now Bondi canned, I and many others have been waiting for the axe to fall next on Tulsi Gabbard. She is, after all, a woman. Unlike Noem and Bondi she really had very, very little pre-existing relationship with Trump. That’s actually a reason her nomination surprised me from the start. She’s bad. But she’s not really one of his people. Like Bobby Kennedy Jr., he really doesn’t have reason to trust her. The fact that she is wildly unqualified (being in the pocket of a major foreign adversary is usually a deal killer for an intelligence chief) is kind of beside the point. But this article in the Times says that it may be Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

As is always the case with Trump, you have to balance the fact that Chavez-DeRemer almost certainly should be fired (she and her husband respectively have a mix of inappropriate workplace relationships and accusations of sexual assault at the department) with the fact that she’s almost certainly about to be fired because she’s a woman. I mean, are we really saying that Pete Hegseth or Scott Bessent are doing great work? Howard Lutnick? Incompetence and manifest corruption are just the baseline. They can’t be a reason for anyone’s ouster.

The Inflation Surge Is Just Getting Started

Fossil fuel stocks haven’t kept up with the market in recent years. (Anton Petrus/Getty Images)

These days we often think of memes that capture a particular moment or idea. In the old days it was cartoons. There’s a classic that captures a big part of what is happening now with the stoppage of tankers (they’re not all oil or even other hydrocarbons) in the Strait of Hormuz. I think the cartoon in question is from The New Yorker. If anyone has a copy, do send it. In the cartoon a guy has jumped off a skyscraper. As he flies by the 50th floor a guy in the building asks him, “How’s it going?” The guy flying by says, “So far, so good!”

That about captures the current moment. I noted yesterday that the oil futures markets currently show the price of oil getting back close to where it was in mid-February by December 2028. Yes, 2028. So if you’re thinking in U.S. electoral terms, this isn’t just something for the 2026 midterms. It’s an issue for the 2028 general election as well. The current spot price for oil out of the Gulf (Brent Crude) is at $141, a price runup based on immediate scarcity issues which the futures markets assume will level out fairly quickly. The point is that a big runup in prices is basically already locked in. Obviously, markets could be pricing in more price increases than will actually happen. But those prices seem to assume a quicker end to the conflict than will actually happen. And it’s not just oil. It’s all the things that run on oil. It will show up in the price of foodstuffs that get shipped around the United States in trucks which run on diesel fuel. It’s fertilizer that comes out of the Gulf. Donald Trump claims and maybe believes that this isn’t really an issue for the United States since we now produce more oil than we use domestically. But obviously that’s not how a global market works. If prices are high for Gulf oil going to Asia, they’ll start pulling oil in from other parts of the world including the U.S. More or less, it will even out.

I’m already seeing good signs that major shippers of various products are already figuring into their planning two or three points higher inflation over the next couple years. They could be wrong too. But one of the things about inflation surges is that people raise prices on expectations. So some of the predictions create their own price reality.

I’m not saying anything that people paying attention and with money on the line don’t know. It hasn’t creeped into the news and political conversation yet. But it’s coming.

Trump proposes steep cut to NASA budget as astronauts head for the Moon

President Donald Trump released a budget blueprint on Friday calling for a 23 percent cut to NASA's budget, two days after the agency launched four astronauts on the first crewed lunar mission in more than 50 years.

The spending proposal for fiscal year 2027 is the opening salvo in a multi-month budget process. Both houses of Congress must pass their own appropriations bills, reconcile any differences between the two, and then send the final budget to the White House for President Trump's signature. Fiscal year 2027 begins on October 1.

The White House requested a similar cut to NASA last year. The Republican-led Congress resoundingly rejected the proposal and kept NASA's budget close to its level in the final year of the Biden administration. Like last year's budget, the proposal from the Trump administration will undergo major changes as Congress weighs in over the coming months.

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Friday 3 April 1663

Waked betimes and talked half an hour with my father, and so I rose and to my office, and about 9 o’clock by water from the Old Swan to White Hall and to chappell, which being most monstrous full, I could not go into my pew, but sat among the quire. Dr. Creeton, the Scotchman, preached a most admirable, good, learned, honest and most severe sermon, yet comicall, upon the words of the woman concerning the Virgin, “Blessed is the womb that bare thee (meaning Christ) and the paps that gave thee suck; and he answered, Nay; rather is he blessed that heareth the word of God, and keepeth it.”

He railed bitterly ever and anon against John Calvin, and his brood, the Presbyterians, and against the present term, now in use, of “tender consciences.” He ripped up Hugh Peters (calling him the execrable skellum), his preaching and stirring up the maids of the city to bring in their bodkins and thimbles.

Thence going out of White Hall, I met Captain Grove, who did give me a letter directed to myself from himself. I discerned money to be in it, and took it, knowing, as I found it to be, the proceed of the place I have got him to be, the taking up of vessels for Tangier. But I did not open it till I came home to my office, and there I broke it open, not looking into it till all the money was out, that I might say I saw no money in the paper, if ever I should be questioned about it. There was a piece in gold and 4l. in silver.

So home to dinner with my father and wife, and after dinner up to my tryangle, where I found that above my expectation Ashwell has very good principles of musique and can take out a lesson herself with very little pains, at which I am very glad. Thence away back again by water to Whitehall, and there to the Tangier Committee, where we find ourselves at a great stand; the establishment being but 70,000l. per annum, and the forces to be kept in the town at the least estimate that my Lord Rutherford can be got to bring it is 53,000l.. The charge of this year’s work of the Mole will be 13,000l.; besides 1000l. a-year to my Lord Peterborough as a pension, and the fortifications and contingencys, which puts us to a great stand, and so unsettled what to do therein we rose, and I to see my Lord Sandwich, whom I found merry at cards, and so by coach home, and after supper a little to my office and so home and to bed.

I find at Court that there is some bad news from Ireland of an insurrection of the Catholiques there, which puts them into an alarm.

I hear also in the City that for certain there is an embargo upon all our ships in Spayne, upon this action of my Lord Windsor’s at Cuba, which signifies little or nothing, but only he hath a mind to say that he hath done something before he comes back again.

Late tonight I sent to invite my uncle Wight and aunt with Mrs. Turner to-morrow.

Read the annotations

April 2, 2026

This afternoon, President Donald J. Trump posted on social media a video of the theme song of the Davy Crockett TV series from 1954–1955 starring Fess Parker. Over the clip, he wrote: “Davy Crockett, obviously a distant relative of Jasmine Crockett, and a very High IQ Frontiersman, would be proud of the legacy that he began long ago, and especially Jasmine’s Great Success as a Politician from the Great State of Texas! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

The Walt Disney Studio designed the Davy Crockett western series for children when Trump was about nine, an age that put him in the right demographic to have been part of the Davy Crockett craze that put “The Ballad of Davy Crockett” at the top of the Hit Parade and spurred the sale of $300 million of Davy Crockett merchandise as little boys begged their parents for raccoon caps that would make them look like a western hero.

Jasmine Crockett is a current Democratic U.S. representative from Texas. There is no evidence she is related to David Crockett, who served as a U.S. representative from Tennessee from 1827 to 1835 and who died at the Battle of the Alamo in 1836. Trump mused about their possible relationship before, in 2025.

It feels frighteningly appropriate for a 1950s television western to seem more important to Trump right now than the real world of April 2026 does. Davy Crockett was only one of the many westerns on television in the 1950s and 1960s as those eager to dismantle the New Deal government championed the idea of the western hero as the true American. Trump is trying to bring to life a right-wing political fantasy of the 1950s, and Americans in the present are making clear they reject it.

After World War II, Republican businessmen, southern racists, and religious traditionalists hated the government that both Democrats and Republicans had embraced since 1933, one that leveled the American social and economic playing field by regulating business, providing a basic social safety net, promoting infrastructure, and protecting civil rights. They insisted that such a system of government action was socialism or even communism, and contrasted it with their fantasy of an independent white man on the frontier who wanted nothing of the government but to be left alone.

In 1960 a ghost-written book released under the name of Arizona senator Barry Goldwater, who wore a cowboy hat and boasted of his family’s ties to the Old West although he himself grew up with a live-in maid and a chauffeur, articulated this right-wing vision.

The Conscience of a Conservative maintained that even if Americans liked the new government that had stabilized the country since the Great Depression and World War II, the Constitution’s framers had deliberately written a document that would prevent “the tyranny of the masses.”

In place of a strong federal government, the book said, power should go back to the states to restore true freedom to Black Americans, farmers, and workers. Federal action had given those groups too much power, and they were using it to destroy liberty and lower the American standard of living. In their hands, the book said, the U.S. was on its way to becoming a totalitarian state. At the same time, the government must protect the country with an increasingly strong military.

At an Easter lunch reception yesterday, Trump echoed this argument precisely. “I said to [Office of Management and Budget director] Russell [Vought], ‘Don’t send any money for daycare because the United States can’t take care of daycare,’” he said. “That has to be up to a state. We can’t take care of daycare. We’re a big country. We have fifty states, we have all these other people. We’re fighting wars. We can’t take care of daycare. You gotta let a state take care of daycare, and they should pay for it, too. They should pay. They’ll have to raise their taxes, but they should pay for it. And we could lower our taxes a little bit to them to make up, but we, it’s not possible for us to take care of daycare. Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things, they can do it on a state basis. You can’t do it on a federal. We have to take care of one thing, military protection.”

Trump is expected to release his 2027 budget plan tomorrow, in time to use it to shape Republicans’ argument for the midterm elections in November. Like Trump’s budget requests for 2026, it calls for an enormous boost to the nation’s military spending, $1.5 trillion, to be paid for with cuts to domestic programs. But members of Congress recognized that domestic spending is popular, and their 2026 appropriations bills kept domestic spending relatively flat.

The popular pressure to fund domestic programs showed today when House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) backpedaled on the Senate’s plan to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) without funding Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the parent agency for Border Patrol, Customs and Border Protection. Far-right House Republicans opposed the Senate’s bill, and bowing to them, Johnson called the Senate’s bill “a joke” and sent House members home until April 13 without voting on it. Today Johnson said he would bring the bill forward to pass it with Democratic support and that Republicans would then try to fund ICE and Customs and Border Protection through a budget reconciliation measure that does not need Democratic votes.

Racism was central to the rhetoric of cowboy individualism, and the institutionalization of that racism in the mass deportations and incarcerations of the Department of Homeland Security under Trump has created a backlash. A poll last week by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) shows that only 35% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration while 61% disapprove.

An analysis of DHS records by Ali Winston and Maddy Varner of Wired revealed today that DHS has used agents from special units accustomed to dealing with high-risk warrants, armed drug cartels, and manhunts for civilian immigration sweeps. Agents from Border Patrol Tactical Unit (BORTAC) and its sister unit, Border Patrol Search, Trauma, and Rescue (BORSTAR), are part of what the journalists call “a secretive, tightly knit world.”

The journalists’ analysis shows that these agents are “as a group, the most violent of the hundreds of federal agents deployed to Chicago.” Following the use-of-force guidelines rewritten by former leader Gregory Bovino—himself a member of BORTAC—their use of force there “included punching and kicking protesters, throwing tear gas, macing civilians, firing pepperballs and 40-mm foam rounds into crowds, shocking people with tasers, unleashing dogs on deportation targets, and shooting unarmed civilians, killing at least one of them [Silverio Villegas González, shot at “close range” as he fled from officers after a traffic stop].

The county medical examiner yesterday declared the death of Nurul Amin Shah Alam, a visually impaired Rohingya refugee from Myanmar whom Border Patrol agents dropped off in the parking lot of a coffee shop on a frigid February night in Buffalo, New York, a homicide. Rather than releasing him to his family or lawyer, CBP officers offered Shah Alam what they called a “courtesy ride.” He was found dead five days after agents left him at the closed shop.

A DHS spokesperson told Sydney Carruth of MS NOW that the homicide ruling was “another hoax being peddled by the media and sanctuary politicians to demonize our law enforcement. This death had NOTHING to do with Border Patrol.”

Those who oppose government social welfare programs, regulation of business, and so on, have worked to concentrate power in the president, knowing that Congress will hesitate to slash programs their voters like. Yesterday Assistant Attorney General T. Elliot Gaiser, of the Office of Legal Counsel, published an opinion for the White House that claims the Presidential Records Act, which requires that presidents keep records of their official business and turn them over at the end of their term, is unconstitutional. Gaiser clerked for Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito.

“The PRA is not a valid exercise of Congress’s Article I authority and unconstitutionally intrudes on the independence and autonomy of the President guaranteed by Article II. The Act establishes a permanent and burdensome regime of congressional regulation of the Presidency untethered from any valid and identifiable legislative purpose,” the memo reads. “For these reasons, the PRA is unconstitutional, and the President need not further comply with its dictates.”

The fallout from that concentration of power is showing now in Trump’s disastrous adventure in Iran, undertaking to attack the country without consultation either with Congress or with allies.

Yesterday evening, Trump commandeered time from television networks to deliver what officials billed as a major announcement on the Iran war. But rather than announce anything new in his first address to the nation about a war that has gone on now for more than a month, Trump rambled for 19 minutes, reiterating what he has put in social media posts. He said the war was almost over but also that military operations were going to intensify, said its purpose was to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities—despite his claim in June 2025 to have obliterated those capabilities—and said the rise in oil and gas prices would be only a “short-term increase.”

Sounding tired and speaking in a monotone, Trump reiterated his claim that the U.S. doesn’t need the oil that travels through the Strait of Hormuz and demanded that other nations who need the oil more force Iran to reopen it. In reality, the U.S. is tied into international oil markets, and prices not only of oil, but also of products that use oil to get to market, are already rising.

One Republican strategist from a battleground state texted Lisa Kashinsky and Alec Hernandez of Politico: “What the hell did he just say?” The strategist called the speech “nonsense.”

As Trump spoke, U.S. stock futures plummeted, erasing about $550 billion in 25 minutes.

Today forty nations, led by Britain and France, discussed ways in which they could work to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The United States was not invited to participate.

In the midst of this crisis, the tension between the Army’s leadership and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth blew up today when Hegeseth fired Army Chief of Staff General Randy George. The Army chief of staff is the highest-ranking officer in the U.S. Army, the top military advisor for the Secretary of the Army, overseeing planning, training, and policy. George was appointed to his position in 2023 and worked closely with former defense secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, the four-star general who preceded Hegseth. Recently, George refused to remove four officers—two women and two Black men—from a promotion list at Hegseth’s insistence.

A source who spoke to Jennifer Jacobs, Eleanor Watson, and James LaPorta of CBS News said that Hegseth “wants someone in the role who will implement President Trump and Hegseth’s vision for the Army.” Two other Army leaders were also removed: General David Hodne, leader of the Army’s Transformation and Training Command, and Major General William Green, head of the Army’s Chaplain Corps. Hegseth has reworked the Chaplain Corps recently to limit the range of religious instruction available to military personnel.

And finally, Trump today fired Attorney General Pam Bondi by posting her dismissal on social media. He was apparently angry that she has not adequately punished his enemies and that her botched handling of the Epstein files has stoked rather than calmed the story. For the present, her replacement will be Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, who was Trump’s personal lawyer before joining the Department of Justice.

It was Blanche who met privately with Jeffrey Epstein’s associate, convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell, last July, as the outcry over the Department of Justice’s apparent cover-up of the Epstein files grew. After their meeting, Maxwell was moved from the prison where she was being held in Florida, to a less restrictive, minimum-security federal prison camp in Texas.

Notes:

https://tnmuseum.org/junior-curators/posts/the-davy-crockett-craze

https://d23.com/a-to-z/davy-crockett-television/

Rick Perlstein, Before the Storm: Barry Goldwater and the Unmaking of the American Consensus (New York: Hill and Wang, 2001), pp. 19-21.

Barry Goldwater [L. Brent Bozell], The Conscience of a Conservative (1960; rpt. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007).

https://newrepublic.com/post/208523/trump-no-money-daycare-medicare-fight-wars-military

https://prri.org/research/americans-views-on-immigration-enforcement-ice-and-civil-liberties-in-the-second-trump-administration/

https://thehill.com/homenews/5812743-house-gop-split-over-dhs-funding/

https://www.wired.com/story/border-patrol-bortac-borstar-use-of-force-midway-blitz/

https://chicago.suntimes.com/the-watchdogs/2025/11/17/silverio-villegas-gonzalez-ice-dhs-trump-midway-blitz-shooting-homicide-franklin-park-chicago

https://www.ms.now/news/rohingya-refugees-death-in-new-york-ruled-a-homicide

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/02/what-the-hell-did-he-just-say-gop-iran-worries-build-after-trump-speech-00855321

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/us/politics/trump-iran-war-address-takeaways.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/dozens-countries-discuss-coalition-secure-passage-through-strait-hormuz-2026-04-02/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/us/politics/hegseth-fires-general-randy-george.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-ousts-army-chief-of-staff-gen-randy-george/

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2026-03-25/chaplain-corps-rank-insignia-hegseth-21176194.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/ghislaine-maxwell-justice-department-meetings-rcna221240

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/ghislaine-maxwell-transferred-to-minimum-security-prison-camp-in-texas

https://www.justice.gov/olc/media/1434131/dl

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/justice-department-presidential-records-act-unconstitutional/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-jasmine-crockett-cnbc-b2802261.html

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Politics Chat, April 2, 2026

The Legacy of Birthright Citizenship

Politics Chat, April 2, 2026

ULA’s Atlas 5 rocket launches its heaviest payload ever with fifth Amazon Leo mission

The United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas 5 rocket sits on Space Launch Complex 41 (SLC-41) at Cape Canaveral at sunset. This will be ULA’s fifth launch for the Amazon Leo broadband satellite constellation.

United Launch Alliance launched its latest Atlas 5 rocket, which carried a batch of 29 Amazon Leo satellites to low Earth orbit. The mission was the largest and heaviest payload carried to orbit by an Atlas 5 rocket to date, according to ULA.

The mission was called Amazon Leo 5 by ULA and Leo Atlas 5 (LA-05) by Amazon. This was the fifth launch of operational satellites by ULA and the ninth for the constellation, which included one flight by Arianespace’s Ariane 6 rocket and three flights on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets.

Liftoff of LA-05 happened Saturday, April 4, at 1:46 a.m. EDT (0546 UTC). The rocket headed out on a north-easterly trajectory upon leaving the launch pad. U.S. Space Force meteorologists predicted a 90 percent chance of acceptable weather for the launch.

After completing its launch readiness review on March 26, the following morning, ULA began rolling out its 62.5-meter-tall (205 ft) rocket from its Vertical Integration Facility out to the pad at Space Launch Complex 41. The move began around 10 a.m. EDT (1400 UTC) and ULA reported a “hard down” at the pad at 11:16 a.m. EDT (1516 UTC).

However, with high winds forecast for the rocket’s original launch date of March 29, ULA was forced to push back the launch until the next available launch date at Cape Canaveral after NASA’s Artemis 2 launch.

The Atlas 5 rolled back to its hangar on Tuesday and returned to the pad Thursday.

The 29 Amazon Leo satellites were released starting about 21 minutes after liftoff. There were 10 deployment sequences, which ended about 17 minutes later. The RL10C-1-1 engine on the Centaur 3 upper stage then reignited about 55 minutes after liftoff for a disposal burn, which will end the mission.

The previous four missions for Amazon Leo launched on by Atlas 5 rockets carried 27 satellites each. ULA and Amazon Leo were able to increase the payload stack to 29 as “a result of detailed engineering work between ULA and Amazon,” according to ULA.

Amazon pointed to ULA’s use of the RL10C-1-1 engine on the rocket’s upper stage as a key reason why they were able to add two more satellites to the mission.

“While the engine has flown on previous missions, LA-05 marks the first time the program has completed the extensive engineering and safety analysis required to use it with our larger payload,” Amazon said in a blog post. “Our engineering teams capitalized on the additional performance margin, adding a fourth level to the previous three-tier dispenser configuration for Atlas 5.”

The Collision at La Guardia

April 1, 2026

So far I haven’t had much to say about the deadly collision at La Guardia airport on March 22nd, when a Jazz Aviation (operating as Air Canada Express) regional jet collided with a fire truck seconds after touching down. The truck had been cleared by air traffic control to cross the active runway.

The most obvious question is why the controller permitted the truck to cross. How did he forget, or not notice, that the RJ was, at that moment, barreling down the same runway? The airport was busy and the tower had been dealing with a different flight declaring an emergency. Maybe that explains a few things, but how is it, in a time of high workload and high distraction, that a single controller is empowered to make a life-or-death decision without a second controller’s scrutiny, especially at night?

ATC understaffing, I’m sure, has a role here. Otherwise, as a pilot-pundit I’m supposed to have answers. I’m afraid I don’t.

What I can tell you, though, is only a few days before the accident I’d remarked to a friend about how the proliferation of vehicles at busy airports felt unsafe to me. Not so much the myriad cars, trucks, and tugs that work the inner ramps, shuttling around luggage and whatnot, but the ones with authorization to operate on active runways and taxiways. These include airport maintenance vehicles, plows, emergency vehicles, and so on.

What training do these drivers receive? Listening over the radio, I sometimes shake my head. Their clearance read-backs, for instance, often sound tentative or uncertain. What sort of situational awareness do they have? In the cockpit, pilots listen out not only for the own instructions, but for those of other aircraft as well, allowing us to paint a mental picture of the movement around us. The importance of this would seem self-evident, but does the man or woman steering a fire truck think this way too?

And couldn’t the driver have seen the regional jet? A pilot will never cross a runway without double-checking, visually, for oncoming traffic. This isn’t possible in low visibility, but most of the time it is. The weather at LGA wasn’t great, but it wasn’t terrible either. As a motorist who’s been broadsided at intersections knows, putting your trust in a stoplight isn’t enough. You don’t cruise through a green without making sure that someone isn’t running the red. The truck, responding to an emergency, approached the runway at an angle. It may have been hard for the driver to see. Was his view obstructed, or did he merely take the controller’s word that the runway was safe?

And what of the Jazz pilots? It’s possible they heard the controller issuing that ill-fated crossing clearance. But they were already on the ground with only a few seconds to react.

The plane hit the truck straight on, nose-first, and both pilots were killed. Everyone else survived. It’s interesting to wonder what the outcome might’ve been had the pilots swerved to avoid the collision. There wasn’t enough time to turn clear; either way they were going to hit. And had they swerved, the point of impact would have been closer to the plane’s midsection, or even at the wing root, resulting in an explosion and many more deaths. The lack of a fire saved the passengers.

Most likely, once the investigation is complete, the La Guardia controller will receive brunt of the blame. This won’t tell the whole story. Understaffing, darkness, urgency, distraction, and ATC protocols all had roles to play, creating a situation where one small mistake proved fatal.

 

Photo by Jordi Moncasi, courtesy of Unsplash.

The post The Collision at La Guardia appeared first on AskThePilot.com.

Is Jason Sams real, AI or hologram?

There is a man named Jason Sams.

I think.

I’m pretty sure.

Perhaps.

He is running for a position on the Orange County Board of Education—area five

I think.

I’m pretty sure.

Perhaps.

Last Wednesday, on a street corner in Mission Viejo, I watched him address the crowd at yet another wonderful South OC For Democracy event. He spoke for, oh, seven minutes, and offered nary a word of substance or detail or interest. To be blunt, it was the worst presentation I’ve witnessed in my year throwing down Truth OC jewels.

If you don’t believe me …

Because I was but a few feet away, I can confirm—with 96.5 percent certainty—that Jason Sams is a real Homo sapien; a 50-year-old man with shoes, pants, a belt, a shirt, sunglasses, a shaved head, a warm smile. That, however, is as far as I can go.

He is the most befuddling Democratic candidate I’ve seen thus far. And his, “Hey, why not?” approach to this profoundly annoys me.

So let’s dig in …

To start with, Jason Sams has a website. Which, obviously, is required of 2026 political candidates. Here is the link. Nothing (literally nothing) about the page makes sense. It is a base-level GoDaddy template, and whoever filled in the blanks has clearly never set foot near a functioning computer. The fonts are buffoonery squared. The primary photograph is crudely placed. The capitalization decisions wound my journalistic soul.

This is what is listed below MY STORY …

Just for kicks, I asked ChatGPT to write a one-paragraph summation of why I (Jeff) am running for Orange County Board of Education (which I’m not), and it produced this …

I mean … y’all see it, don’t you?

You see it! Right? Right!?

I digress.

There is a DONATE link that takes you to a … blank-ish PayPal page. There is a listing of CAMPAIGN PRIORITIES that (again) could be straight from a ChatGPT quickie. Inexplicably, there’s a HELP OUR CAUSE plea alongside this photograph …

Is the cause forestry? Nature photography? Chopper bungee jumping? The return of Alf to NBC?

I do not know.

And the site irks me. First, because it sucks. Second, can we at least take this shit somewhat seriously? Please. I’ve been hard of late on Esther Kim Varet—but at least she’s in it to win it. Say what you want, the woman is trying. Jason Sams’ website screams, I’M IN IT BECAUSE MOM TOOK AWAY MY NINTENDO SWITCH! It’s vague and ugly and ridiculous and useless, and nary a single voter would leave thinking, “This is my guy.”

Oh, and it gets worse: In the lord’s year of 2026, Jason Sams has no social media presence. Literally zero. He links to nothing from his site, and a scan of the ol’ IG comes up empty. Same with TikTok. And Facebook.

Again—can we at least take this shit seriously?

Jason Sams’ LinkedIn page is little better. It’s just … vague.

Here’s the ABOUT section …

His first two EXPERIENCE listings involve recent advisory roles …

And his longest position—16 years and running—is as the founder and chairman/sustainability of the Stone Water Group, a company that hasn’t shown a pulse since 2018, boasts a dead website and, I guess, sorta kinda maybe existed/exists.

If that’s not kooky enough, Jason Sams spent two whole months as the executive director of something called the Markarian Law Group and nine months as the board of director at the Ryan Banks Academy.

Sigh.

•••

And here’s the thing. Dogging Jason Sams is not fun for me. At all. But we—Orange County’s Democrats and liberals—have to stop with this shit. Candidates are our business cards, and if we roll out ridiculousness, we’re doomed to be branded ridiculous. Either the people we push forward to run need to be engaged and qualified and inspiring (See Galvez, J.J.), or we need to find other place fillers. But the worst thing we can do (the absolute worst thing we can do) is promote duds, then watch them drown and have independents think, “Same ol’ OC Dems ...”

I have no reason to believe Jason Sams doesn’t have good intentions, but I also have no reason to believe he knows what he’s doing. He probably saw an opening, saw an election, saw some free time and thought, “Hey, LFG.”

But if you can’t express a real, non-ChatGPT reason for your campaign, and if you can’t offer up base-level facts on the position you aspire to hold, and if your LinkedIn page includes a two-month job, you’re not the right dude.

There’s no shame in that.

Links 4/3/26

Links for you. Science:

Antibiotic used in COVID patients tied to increased signs of antibiotic resistance
Somebody Finally Stood Up to RFK Jr. A federal judge’s ruling highlights the ways Kennedy’s anti-vax agenda is putting public health at risk.
More than 150,000 uncounted COVID-19 deaths occurred early in the pandemic, a study finds (paper here; I have some doubts about the assumptions of the model, but still interesting)
Lineage dynamics of invasive Escherichia coli isolates in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2021: a retrospective longitudinal genomic analysis
Rising Death Rate for Gen X, Elder Millennials Is ‘Genuinely Alarming’
What does the appendix do? Biologists explain the complicated evolution of this inconvenient organ

Other:

Despair
Iran, Slopulism, and the Eternal Innocence of the American People (excellent)
Ol’ Donny Trump Has Really Stepped in It This Time (excellent)
Trump’s War With Iran Is a Product of His Deep Stupidity
F—k Kash Patel and his $tupid shoes
What We Forget About Covid Will Shape the Next Pandemic
Afroman’s Defamation Trial Is Going About As Well For The Deputies As Their Original Raid Did
The fight over transgender rights in America has entered a new phase
The Men Obsessed With ‘High T’: Fueled by the manosphere, men are boosting their testosterone levels through natural and synthetic means, with some competitively swapping test results on a regular basis.
Trump Case for War Undermined by Bombshell as MAGA Breaks
Feds Drop Charges Against Disabled Woman Arrested For Standing Up At State Of The Union
The Algorithm Is Your Asshole Boyfriend
The AI boom is dangerously dependent on helium
Aurora ICE detainees are malnourished and forced to work, advocates report (BuT ThEy’rE NoT CoNcEnTrAtIoN CaMpS)
Straight women are rewriting the rules of heterosexual life
Why Knight Foundation Invested in Bluesky
The Supreme Court Just Heeded One of Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Sharpest Dissents
College Republicans Chapter Sues School for Right to Make Nazi Salute
President Trump isn’t making sense
Democratic Turnout Surges in Mississippi’s US Senate Primaries, Nearly Matching GOP Vote Total
The 49MB Web Page
My dogs helped when I was sad
Pentagon plans to keep National Guard in DC into 2029, 2 US officials say (this ends if Republican governors refuse to send troops)
For Gen Z Republican men, sex is solitary. Young conservatives’ anger at women is taking a nihilistic turn
Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story
I’m Sorry to Burst Your Bubble: You Are Being Fooled About AI, and You Will Soon Feel Really Stupid
House Republicans move to kill D.C. traffic cameras — despite some using them back home
FEMA disaster chief claims he is able to teleport: ‘I landed in a ditch by a baptist church’
With sharp attacks and high stakes, the mayoral race kicks into gear
Chicago hires D.C.’s Housing Authority head, surprising leaders in both cities

Collections: Reconstructing the Roman Pectoral

This week we’re going to look a specific piece of early Roman military equipment, the humble bronze pectoral, which it turns out is surprisingly tricky for us to confidently reconstruct, in part because the period of its use that most interests us (the run from c. 264 to c. 146 where Rome is winning its first big overseas wars) is a relative gap – fancy word, ‘lacuna‘ – in our evidence, making it really difficult to correlate what our literary source (Polybius) is telling us to the physical evidence we have (both preserved examples and artwork). This was, we are told (by Polybius) the armor of the common Roman soldier in the period of their greatest wars, yet on some level we do not really know what it looked like. Not with certainty, in any case.

In particular I am going to argue that the most common reconstruction of this armor, as a single bronze plate suspended usually by leather straps over the chest, is probably wrong and that the armor more likely existed as a complex harness, simplified in brief literary description down to just its core element. But as we’ll see, this is going to be a zone of what I term ‘real uncertainty’ – a situation where without new evidence coming out of the ground, we simply cannot know for sure.

So this is not just an exercise in working through how to reconstruct one specific kind of equipment, but also how historians engage in questions that exist in a zone of really low confidence.

But first, as always, affording a full panoply of heavy infantry equipment as is the duty of any propertied Roman citizen is expensive! If you want to help me waste spend my money on reproduction ancient military equipment, you can support this project over at Patreon. If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).

Via Wikipedia, a rough map of cultural groups in pre-Roman Italy. Key:
Dark Blue: Ligures
Brown: Veneti
Pink: Etruscans
Light Blue: Piceni
Light Green: Umbrians
Dark Green: Oscans (including the Samnites, discussed below)
Orange: Messapii
Yellow: Greeks
Gold: Latins (including the Romans)

Polybius

Our first stop is Polybius. Polybius wrote in the mid-second century (that is, the 140s), but his history covers the period from 264 to 146 and his description of the pectoral is placed relatively early in the narrative, in 216, as part of a larger explanation of the Roman military system. There is thus immediately a question as to if the details Polybius is giving are correct for 216 or for the 140s when he wrote. In practice, the answer must be something of a mix: Polybius has sources that reach back and might give him details appropriate to the period (he seems to have the writings of a military tribune to use for this description of the dilectus), but it seems likely that his description of the pectoral comes from observing it. Consequently, while I suspect that Polybius’ description of who is required to wear what may be accurate for 216, he has clearly seen the pectoral and understands it to still be in use in his own day (indeed, at other points in this extended passage, he explicitly notes things that used to be one way but had changed by his own day).1

That’s handy, because Polybius is the only source that describes this armor. Later historians – Livy, Plutarch, etc. – seem broadly unaware of it and it really does seem like the pectoral was in the process of going extinct when Polybius was writing (for reasons below). So we have one description of the armor, but at least it is by an eyewitness. Here it is (Polyb. 6.23.14-15, trans. mine):

The many [hoi polloi, “the common folk”] taking a bronze plate a span [c. 23cm] on all sides, which they place over their chests and call ‘heart protectors’ [καρδιοφύλαξ, very literally ‘heart protector’], finish their armaments. However those worth more than ten thousand drachmas [= the first class of Roman infantry], instead of the heart-protector wear mail coats [αλυσιδωτοί θώρακες, “hooked [or chain] cuirasses” which we know is the Greek way to say ‘mail coats.’]

And…that’s it. From later authors (Varro, De Ling. Lat. 5.116; Plin HN 34.18) we get the Latin name for this armor, pectorale (pectorale, pectoralis (n) for the Latin nerds), thus the English term ‘pectoral’ but no more details of its construction.2

Crucially, this armor doesn’t show up on any highly visible Roman military monuments. The reason is fairly simple: the earliest really visible Roman military monuments are the Pydna Monument (168) and the so-called Altar of Domitius Ahenobarbus (late second century) by which point the pectoral was already on the way out. Ancient artists tend to prefer high status equipment and so with the pectoral on the way out (though likely still very much in use in 168) and the poorer, lower status armor, they didn’t depict it, instead preferring to use mail armor to signal Roman soldiers (specifically, mail is used on the Pydna Monument to signal ‘these are Romans’ in contrast to Macedonians or Gauls).3

As a result, scholars initially didn’t have a lot to go on except Polybius’ description – the archaeology, as we’ll see, doesn’t really get sorted out until the last 40 years or so. So they reconstructed on that basis. A ‘span’ (σπιθαμή) is a ‘natural’ unit, the distance between the thumb and the little finger at full extension, which is conveniently more or less half of a cubit (the length of a forearm out to the end of the middle finger), which eventually becomes formalized in Attic measurements (which Polybius tends to use; other places might have slightly different measures for the same terms) as 23.1cm and 46.2cm respectively.

That leads to the most common thing we see in artistic reconstructions and reenactor kit: the pectoral is reconstructed as a brass or bronze plate, usually about 1-2mm thick (the normal thickness for breastplates), 23cm by 23cm square. Since obviously it needs to be attached to something it is often shown backed in leather, with leather straps around the waist and over the shoulders holding it in place. I am going to call this reconstruction – a single plate, 23cm square, on a leather harness – the ‘traditional’ reconstruction.

That size lets the pectoral cover most of the chest, but it does nothing for the belly, sides or shoulders. On that basis, I have very often heard scholars regard it as a very minimal, almost token defense, unlikely to do much at all to protect the men wearing it. And again, before there was much archaeology to work with (or before finds had been analyzed, arranged chronologically and had their development worked through), you can see how this is the most logical extrapolation of what Polybius is saying.

But I do want to note some things here. Polybius’ description of this armor is extremely brief. He does not even bother to explain what Roman mail armor is like at all – no description, for instance, of its length (to the knees) or shoulder-doubling or the front-closure mechanism. If it weren’t for period depictions of mail, we would probably reconstruct it without these elements. As for the pectoral, all he says is that it is a span square and the Romans have a funny name for it. Which is to say it is entirely possible that Polybius is leaving out some details here. Which brings us to:

The Development of the Italic Pectoral

This, of course, is the point at which we naturally turn to archaeology to provide us both physical examples of this kind of armor and also visual representations of it. And he we run into an immediate problem: the third and second century feature a near total lacuna of Italic armor, in both artwork and preserved examples. The problem is frustrating in its elegant simplicity: the Roman military system – terribly efficient and in its way, anti-aristocratic – coincides as it expands with the end of aristocratic ‘warrior burials’ wherever it goes. Thus as Rome during the fourth and early third century goes about consolidating control of Italy, the amount of nice tomb paintings with aristocratic warrior in procession or burials with arms and armor drop to basically nothing. The Roman army is removing the evidence we might have for the Roman army. Astoundingly frustrating.

The evidentiary record begins to pick up a bit in the second century with more artistic depictions of Roman soldiers as the Roman state engages in more monumental depictions of its soldiers (noted above), but by that point mail rather than the pectoral is the ‘national armor’ of Rome’s armies (even though the pectoral is likely in use) and pectorals never appear. The really strong archaeological record for armor will have to wait until the imperial period, when the permanent stationing of Rome’s armies on the frontier of the empire means they sit in one place long enough for us to recover bits of armor.4 Weapons show up more often than armor (pila more often than any other type of weapon, a testament to their disposability) and we get a lot of helmets (for reasons not entirely clear to me), but functionally no body armor from this period. The best we can do are tiny fragments of metal rings for mail and even those are rare.

Worse yet, as mentioned before, the pectoral was going extinct in this period. Notably, when our evidence improves massively in the first century BC and AD, the pectoral is nowhere to be found. No source mentions it as still in use in that period, no artist depicts it, no finds of it are recovered. Polybius is thus our last source for this armor, suggesting that by the start of the first century, it had been wholly replaced by mail. No shock, mail is awesome (if expensive). But that means we cannot look for later examples to help us understand what Polybius is saying.

But we can can look at earlier ones.5

The Italic pectoral seems to have arrived from the Middle East in the 8th or perhaps 7th centuries (sometime between c. 750 and c. 680). This form of armor, a more or less flat metal place (as opposed to an enclosing breastplate of the sort we see in Greece around this time) has Middle Eastern precedents (we see Assyrian soldiers in artwork wearing similar armor), though how exactly it made it to Italy is unclear – Phoenicians seems most probable, but uncertain. In either case, by the seventh century, these pectoral armors are quite common over all of Italy, including Latium (where Rome is) and Etruria. The armor at this point generally consists of two bronze plates (a front plate and a back plate), which might be rectangular or circular, about 20-25cm wide (or tall; sometimes these are even smaller than this) and which were connected by leather straps. We generally call these ‘rectangular’ and ‘single disc’ pectorals. When decorated (and they very frequently are), they usually feature either geometric designs (often rectangles within a rectangular cuirass) or animal designs, either punched into the plate or embossed.

Via the British Museum (1872,1008.1) an Italic kardiophylax (c. 700-600BC), 25.4cm wide.

And you can see how an archaeologist looking at these pectorals from the seventh century might be thinking, “ah, I see exactly what Polybius was talking about: a bronze plate a span square!” Except, of course, the sixth century is not the second century and these pectorals keep evolving.

Now, in significant parts of Italy, especially Etruria, these pectoral armors begin to be replaced in the late sixth century by Greek-style armor, especially for elite, high-status warriors. In particular, the Etruscans love the tube-and-yoke (linothorax) armor when it shows up and it swiftly becomes a marker of elite status, though pectorals do occasionally show up in Etruscan art, albeit less frequently, but they are certainly petering out. Annoyingly, at roughly this point the archaeological record for Rome specifically also dries up, so it isn’t clear exactly what armors are popular in Rome in the very early Republic (our literary sources assume Greek-style armors, which may be right, but they are guessing and deeply anachronistic in their assumptions).

However in central Italy, in the Apennines Mountains, the pectoral persists and undergoes some significant design changes. Around 600, we start to see changes to the strap mechanisms holding the armor together: one shoulder strap is replaced with a pair of bronze plates connected by a hinge. The resulting harness gets pretty complex, as you can see in the figure of the Capestrano Warrior (c. 550), where the harness that holds the pectoral also supplies a scabbard (suspended at the chest) for the sword and there is a clear contrast between the metal hinged plate (over the right shoulder) and the more reddish-colored leather straps (of which there are three, two wide and one narrow) holding the harness and scabbard together.

Via Wikipedia, the Capestrano Warrior (c. 550), found at Capestrano in Abruzzo (in Italy), depicting a warrior of the Piceni, a central Italic peoples on the Adriatic coast.

In the early fifth century, this design is both enhanced and greatly simplified with the emergence of the first ‘triple disc’ pectorals. These are so named because the front plate (and back plate) take the form of three discs in a triangular arrangement, though I must stress this is a single plate with three circular designs on it in a roughly triangular shape, not three individual circular plates. Indeed, earlier archaeologists supposed that the ‘triple disc’ cuirass must have evolved in two stages from the disc pectorals discussed above and posited a ‘double disc’ cuirass, which turns out not to have existed.

These triple-disc breast- and back-plates were joined together not by leather straps but by a simplified version of the hinged plate system used in the sixth century disc pectorals, except now there are four connecting plates: one each over the shoulders (each of them hinged) and one at the sides (without hinges). These plates also get a bit wider, providing relatively fuller coverage over the upper body and the armor is supplemented by a wide bronze belt worn around the waist which protects the lower abdomen. You can see the full armor clearly in artwork:

Via the British Museum, a fourth century squat lekythos showing a pectoral cuirass (in this case a ‘triple disk’ type) worn by a Campanian warrior

In the second-half of the fourth century (so 350 onwards), we see these triple-disc cuirasses joined by another type, particularly on the western coast of southern Italy (so the area south of Latium), the ‘rectangular anatomical cuirass.’ This takes the existing triple-disc harness structure, with its bronze belt and connecting side and shoulder plates, but instead of the triangular triple-disc cuirass, it substitutes rectangular breast- and back-plates, with the designs on these invariably mimicking the musculature on Greek muscle cuirasses, although – because these plates are smaller than Greek breastplates (which wrap around the body) – the muscles depicted are visibly smaller-than-lifelike. In short, the artistic form of the muscle cuirass is being copied, but this is not an effort to mimic the actual muscles of the man wearing the armor.

To give a sense of size, recovered triple disc cuirasses range from 27-32.5cm tall and 26-28cm at the widest, while the rectangular anatomical cuirasses range from 29.5 x 37cm tall to 25 x 30cm wide for the front plates.6 Combined with side and shoulder plates that tend to be 5-8cm wide and a wide bronze belt (7-12cm wide, 70-110cm long, ~1mm thick), these really do cover most of the upper body, albeit with gaps, and are something closer to an articulated breastplate than they are to the small ‘heart protector’ of the Capestrano Warrior.

And you may note that a rectangular plate over the chest of c. 30cm by c. 28cm is not very far from Polybius’ description of “a bronze plate a span on all sides” and better yet is far more likely to have actually be in use in the third and second centuries for Polybius to see.

Via Wikipedia, a triple-disc cuirass with its shoulder and side plates (but no bronze belt), in the Museo Archeologico Nazionale di Paestum.
This is, as an aside, a good example – particularly the triple-disc component – of how simple the decoration of these armors could get. The cuirass is cut out of sheet metal, has three simple discs hammered into its shape and is otherwise mostly unadorned. Assuming sufficient bronze, such cuirasses could likely be made relatively quickly and cheaply, compared to something like a muscle cuirass (or certainly compared to later mail armor).

Notably – and this is going to matter in a moment – these fifth and fourth century pectoral harnesses do not appear without bronze belts or connecting plates. You will find these pectorals in museums without those added elements, in many cases because when the first of these armors were excavated (and/or looted) it was done carelessly and so the smaller plates were missed. However, whenever we get these armors with secure provenance or see them depicted in artwork, as Michael Burns notes, without exception, we get the full harness with all seven elements (frontplate, backplate, 2 shoulder plates, 2 side plates, bronze belt). We never to my knowledge ever see them suspected in simple leather harnesses; it surely was possible to do so, but it is unclear that anyone ever did after the introduction of the four-plate harness.

What Michael Burns thinks is happening (revising earlier work by the late, great Peter Connolly), and I think he is right, is that Southern Italic peoples are responding to the increasing presence of Greek muscle cuirasses coming in through Greek colonies in Southern Italy. But rather than just copying the muscle cuirass, they seem to have innovated from their own single-disc pectorals (which didn’t always cover a whole lot of the chest) to the triple-disc to create a kind of ‘exploded’ muscle cuirass. Initially, they do this by taking their own armor form, the single-disc cuirass, and expanding it out into a full ‘exploded’ breastplate, but eventually, in the fourth century, there’s enough artistic crossover that designs that use a rectangular plate and intentionally mirror Greek artistic tropes appear alongside triple-disc styles (which do not go away). It is worth noting that some of these triple-disc and rectangular anatomical armors are wonderfully decorated with complex designs, but many of them are very minimally decorated, especially as we get into the fourth century, suggesting a demand for a cheaper, no-frills version of this protection.

And then in 290 the Romans win the Third Samnite War and take control of the non-Greek parts of Southern Italy. And as noted above, when the Romans incorporate a given part of Italy into their ‘alliance’ system, for reasons that are not entirely clear to us (but the pattern is very strong), warrior burials, ritual weapon depositions and aristocratic artwork of warriors stop. Which means right around the year 300, our evidence for the Italic pectoral tradition simply vanishes. Really, we basically have an expanding bubble of darkness, radiating out from Rome (which is also probably how the Roman conquest felt to the Samnites), blinding our ability to track the development of armor in Italy.

Via Wikipedia, the Ksour Essef Cuirass, a triple-disc cuirass found in a Punic tomb in Ksour Essef, Tunisia. This cuirass is now generally dated to the late fourth or early third century, before the First Punic War, so its presence suggests significant trade contacts between Carthage and Italy, such at that a local Punic elite might acquire a beautifully decorated piece of Italian armor.

So by the third century, we do not see any pectorals, because we don’t see much of anything (except helmets; we continue to see those) for quite some time.

Except…

The Weird Exception We Need To Dismiss

The one odd exception to this is a pectoral disc found in the siege camps at Numantia.7 It is 17cm wide and circular, with a pattern of concentric circles and a large central knob and for quite some time if you went looking for an actual Roman pectoral this is what you would find.

The problem is that it isn’t Roman, it is very obviously Spanish. This spent a century not getting noticed because archaeologists working on ancient arms and armor tend to be very geographically specialized, so folks working on Roman and Italic arms and armor are not likely to be very familiar with the arms and armor of the fifth century Celtiberian Meseta. But if you are familiar with that, it is very clear that this is not a Roman pectoral at all, but a Spanish one, despite it turning up in a Roman camp.

Left: The Numantia pectoral, as illustrated by M.C. Bishop in Bishop and Coulston, Roman Military Equipment (2006), image © M. C. Bishop
Right: Via the Museo Arqueologico Nacional, Madrid, a Celtiberian pectoral harness (MAN 1940/27/AA/314, main disc 18cm in diameter, late fifth to early fourth century), showing similar concentric circle motifs and punch-holes around the outer edge.

First, while Italy had single-disc circular pectorals these had been replaced in the archaeological and artistic record in the fifth century by the larger triple-disc pectorals discussed above. Moreover, those earlier single-disc Italic pectorals don’t feature raised concentric circles as part of their normal artistic motifs. The more often have animals on them, or punch-holed simple geometric designs. They were also flat and did not feature central knobs.

But you know who did have pectoral harnesses with circular central plates featuring raised concentric circle designs and prominent central knobs? The Celtiberians, who are the people who lived at Numantia, where these camps were. Now the tricky bit here is that these pectorals are also – as far as we can tell – long out of use in the Iberian Peninsula as well: they persist through the fifth century, but fade out at the beginning of the fourth.

But whereas it is a little difficult to imagine a second-century Roman soldier decided to bring a piece of armor with him to Spain that had been out of use in Italy for something like four centuries, it is a lot easier to imagine the same Roman soldier in Spain might have looted a temple or a tomb (or simply struck a burial while entrenching his camp) that contained a fifth or very early fourth century Celtiberian disc-harness and that this soldier then looted the shiny bronze plate, later to be (for whatever reason) discarded in the camp.

Reconstructing the Roman Pectoral

So that is the shape of our evidence: with the Numantia pectoral removed (because it is not Roman at all, but Celtiberian), we have no examples of this armor from the third or second centuries B.C. What we do have is a tradition of pectoral armors which lead to the emergence of the triple-disc and rectangular anatomical pectoral harnesses in the fourth century, which we lose sight of in the general lacuna for most non-helmet military equipment in the third and second century. When our evidence returns, they are gone but we have this report by Polybius that poorer-but-still-propertied Romans in the heavy infantry (so not the poorest Romans fighting, those are the velites or do not serve at all) wear a bronze pectoral plate about a span square over their chest.

That admittedly quite poor evidence base leaves us with really just two options, both of them somewhat unsatisfactory.

The first option, the one taken – so far as I can tell – by the great majority of modern artistic reconstructions, is to simply read Polybius and reconstruct exactly what he says. That gives these Roman soldiers a single metal plate, typically shown mounted on a leather backing with leather straps, about 23cm square. This is, in a sense, the philologically elegant solution: it assumes nothing not in our text. The problem, from an archaeological perspective, is that this effectively requires arguing one of two cases: either first that sixth century pectoral – with its simple leather suspension – somehow survived in Italy for four centuries to be observed in action on the battlefield by Polybius in the mid-second century without leaving any other evidence at all. Not one piece of artwork, not one surviving example in the intervening period, despite the fact that we have sixty-seven fifth and fourth century examples of the later pectoral types (45 triple-disc and 22 rectangular anatomical cuirass types). That could be right. But it is a heroic assumption.

Alternately, the argument would be that the Romans at some point developed their own version of the pectoral, probably based off of the rectangular anatomical type, which discarded with the wide bronze belt, the shoulder plates and the side plates and so consisted only of a breastplate and a backplate. The problem here is simple: as Michael Burns notes in his survey of Italic pectorals, that configuration never occurs in artwork or in archaeology where site and provenance are secure. We do not have a single example of those later Southern Italic pectorals – the types that emerge after the more complex harness structure discussed above – dispensing with those pieces. Could they have done? Of course. But as of 2005 (and so far as I know, to the present), we have no evidence that anyone ever did. This solution thus requires conjuring into existence an effectively unknown armor-type. That could be right, particularly given how bad our evidence for Roman arms and armor in the Early Republic is. You can even imagine, if we had evidence of it, how we’d explain it: the broadening participation in the Roman army leads to poorer Romans to take up the Samnite cuirasses (that is, triple-disc and rectangular anatomical cuirasses) they have seen, but to jettison the ‘extra bits’ to make it cheaper and more affordable, effectively reversing a few centuries of armor development to create a stripped down breast- and back-plate only version. That’s what we’d posit, if we had some, but we don’t have some and I would argue that it runs against the rules of evidence as practices in archaeology to conjure into existence an unattested variant of an object-class (which does not developmentally link to anything else you can see) simply because it would be convenient. That is not how we assess coins or pots, I do not see why we would do it with armor.

That leaves another option: Polybius is describing the Southern Italian pectoral harness we can see, but doing so incompletely. It is not hard to imagine how the Romans will have picked up this armor: they spent the period from 343 to 290 fighting the Samnites in Campania and the Samnites are the major users of the triple-disc cuirass and Campania is where we most often see them in artwork. If the Romans weren’t already using this armor (and remember, we have no evidence at all of what armor the Romans are using in c. 300), they could certainly pick it up.

Then Polybius comes along in the mid-second century, where this armor is already dying out, largely replaced by mail, but still hanging on here or there – perhaps as hand-me-downs used by poorer Romans. One advantage of the pectoral harness’ seven-part structure is that it is a sort of ‘one-size-fits-no-one’ set that would be reasonably easy to modify or pass down to new users (unlike a Greek-style muscle cuirass, which really needs to be fitted to the wearer). Polybius then, writing about the Roman army as it existed in the Second Punic War (218-201) and, as per Rawson, using perhaps the accounts of some military tribunes, is aware of this armor’s place in the military regulations of that time and so includes it but with only minimal description. As a Greek, Polybius is used to thinking about body armor as a single piece – a breastplate, a tube-and-yoke cuirass, a mail coat – rather than a harness, so looking at a rectangular anatomical cuirass that is, perhaps 30cm by 28cm for its front plate, he describe sit simply as ” bronze plate a span on all sides.” Just as he doesn’t include the details of Roman mail armor’s shoulder doubling, he feels no real need to include the shoulder and side plates of the harness and he may not even be aware that the wide bronze belt has any real armor value at all (early archaeologists made the same error, assessing it as purely decorative, but it would offer some protection).

I think these are the three options we are left with for the pectoral: surprising sixth-century survival in the mid-second century, otherwise un-evidenced recreation of an older form out of the fourth-century rectangular anatomical cuirass or simply that it is the rectangular anatomical cuirass, harness at all, that Polybius has described incompletely. My own instinct is that the latter is probably correct. One interesting thing is that compared to, say, muscle cuirasses, these pectoral cuirasses of both the triple-disc and rectangular anatomical types were probably produced from sheet metal (sheet bronze, in particular), rather than forged from an ingot, which would have made it relatively easier to produce larger numbers of armors – equally if one opted for a style with simple decorations, amply in evidence in the archaeological record. Meanwhile, as noted the design is fairly easy to adjust for size. Jeremy Armstrong and Nicholas Harrison suggest that this in part allowed for “the expansion of warfare in Italy seen in the fourth century and marked by Rome’s wars of conquest” and I think that is right.8

Now in the fourth century, that armor might still be restricted to the fairly well-off. But in the late third or early second century, it is not hard seeing how the introduction of an even better but also substantially more expensive armor – mail – might ‘push’ existing pectoral cuirasses (again, of both types) down the socioeconomic ladder as the Roman first census class was required – as Polybius tells us – to acquire mail. The spare armor might ‘flow downwards’ as it were, making the affluent man’s undecorated but still shiny bronze armor of c. 350 the poor man’s pectoral of c. 150. Indeed, there is no reason it couldn’t be the very same piece of armor.

I do not think the evidence allows us to answer this question with confidence, but I do think that simple inertia has led scholars to continue reproducing the ‘traditional’ pectoral reconstruction long after it stopped being the most likely one. Instead, the most likely solution is that the Romans had continued to use, in some form, the full triple-disc or rectangular anatomical cuirass, including metal connecting plates (and perhaps the wide bronze belt) and that what Polybius was seeing was not, in fact, the small decorative chest-plates of the sixth century but rather this armor.

Too good to be true

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has put forth an excellent plan to save Social Security, featuring a $100,000 benefit cap. The plan is so good that I see almost no prospect for it ever being enacted by our Congress, an institution that has fallen to a sadly dysfunctional state. In this post, I’ll discuss why I like the plan and then describe the type of far inferior plan likely to eventually be adopted.

The CRFB’s proposal is essentially a progressive consumption tax, although it won’t look like that to the average person. I cannot teach an entire course in public finance theory in a blog post, but the essence of a consumption tax is as follows:

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Imagine a world where people can either spend $6000/month on consumption today, or $12,000/month on consumption in 20 years, by saving their incomes. Now assume you impose a 33.3% tax in that world, which takes away a third of the public’s resources for consumption. With a pure consumption tax, your choice is now $4000/consumption today or $8000 consumption in 20 years.

Notice that the “terms of trade” have not changed, in both cases, the opportunity cost of a dollar spent on consumption today is foregoing two dollar’s consumption in 20 years. A consumption tax is a tax that does not change the relative price of current and future consumption. In a sense, all taxes are consumption taxes, as the burden of any tax is its impact on a person’s lifetime consumption. However, economists use the term “consumption tax” to refer specifically to taxes that treat current and future consumption equally. An income tax punishes savers and hence is not a consumption tax.

I’m pretty sure that most people don’t understand this concept, as I often see commenters say things like “we should tax consumption, not labor.” Actually, a labor tax is a consumption tax. Indeed, these three taxes are all equivalent consumption taxes, in the long run:

1. A 20% VAT

2. A 20% payroll tax on wages

3. A 20% income tax with unlimited ability to put savings into a 401k plan, and no mandatory date of withdrawal from the 401k. (Funds borrowed for consumption are also taxed.)

Another misconception is that there is a big difference between benefit cuts and tax increases. Not so. There’s essentially no difference between cutting benefits of a wealthy Social Security recipient by $1000 and not cutting their benefits at all but instead taxing that person an extra $1000. The CRFB plan that I will discuss is generally framed as a “spending cut”, but it’s essentially a progressive consumption tax on high end Social Security recipients.

The CRFB plan is described as a $100,000 cap on the total amount of annual Social Security benefits that a household can receive, but the details are somewhat more complicated. That headline $100,000 cap applies to the official retirement age of 67, but as you probably know a retiree’s benefit level depends on when they retire. In order to prevent the cap from encouraging early retirement, they make it depend on age:

The $100,000 SFL would be adjusted based on marital status and collection age. A single person collecting at the NRA would face a $50,000 limit. A couple in which both spouses began collecting benefits at age 70 would face a $124,000 limit, reflecting the 24% delayed retirement credit. A couple with both spouses collecting at age 62 would face a $70,000 limit, reflecting the 30% early retirement actuarial reduction. Different claiming ages would result in a blended limit.

They present three ways in which the cap could be adjusted over time:

The SFL could be indexed over time in a variety of ways. For this analysis, Jason DeBacker of the Open Research Group modeled three options – a $100,000 limit indexed to inflation, a limit frozen in nominal terms at $100,000 for 20 years and then indexed to average wage growth, and a limit frozen at $100,000 for 30 years before being indexed to wage growth. The Inflation-Indexed SFL could also switch to wage indexing after a specified number of years.

Because wage inflation runs slightly over 1% higher than price inflation, these approaches have different long run implications for how the cap evolves over time:

I’ll probably be dead by 2046, so I’d be better off with the inflation adjusted cap (blue line.) But the basic idea is so good I’d be thrilled with any of the three versions.

These proposals are not enough to fully save Social Security. Thus they also propose a tax increase, and again the proposal is almost too good to be true:

This Trust Fund Solutions Initiative white paper suggests a new alternative – replacing the employer side of the payroll tax with a flat Employer Compensation Tax (ECT) on all employer compensation costs. While workers would continue to pay payroll taxes, employers would instead pay an ECT on all wages (with no tax cap) and all fringe benefits such as employer-sponsored insurance and stock options.

Not only is this a progressive consumption tax (relative to the current tax), it also reduces the distortion of current wage taxes that exempt health insurance benefits. That tax break has been an important factor driving up health care costs. (The employee side FICA should also tax health care benefits, as should the personal income tax.)

Part 2: The ant and the grasshopper

Unfortunately, the CRFB plan seems too good to be true, and I expect Congress to implement something far worse. In order to understand why, consider two neighbors that both spent their careers in upper-middle class jobs making close to the Social Security taxable maximum (currently $184,500). Both retire as single people entitled to roughly $50,000/year in benefits. Both would see their benefits capped in nominal terms, which means their real benefit levels would decline over time.

But these two neighbors differ in one very important way. Smith was a high spender who would buy the latest BMW, while Jones was a high saver who always bought used cars. Smith saved very little while Jones maxed out his 401k plan.

Now Smith starts whining to his congressman that the proposed cap is unfair. It should only apply to “the wealthy”. His neighbor Jones is now pulling $100,000/year out of his 401k and doesn’t “need” his Social Security benefit to rise with inflation. “Please make the cuts depend on income levels, not benefit levels.” Because America has far more grasshoppers than ants, Congress listens to the whiners and applies benefit cuts only to those with high current incomes, not those with high lifetime wage incomes. They punish savers and reward spendthrifts.

Why do I believe this will occur? Why am I so cynical? Because this is what Congress has been doing for the past 113 years. As a result of numerous policies, savers are effectively taxed at a higher rate than those who don’t save, which means that future consumption has become more expensive relative to current consumption. But it doesn’t look that way to the average person.

People focus on the fact that those who are currently wealthy have more resources than the less wealthy, even when the gap is 100% due to the less thrifty person choosing to spend at an earlier stage of their lives. In my thought experiment, the two neighbors were equally wealthy in the only way that matters—they had equal lifetime resources to allocate to consumption and simply choose to do so at different points in time. Smith consumed when he was young enough to enjoy it, and Jones foolishly waited until he was old, wrongly imagining that he could still get a thrill out of life at age 70.

At one time you might have expected the GOP to champion the interests of high savers, but those days are probably gone. The GOP coalition is trending toward low savers and the party is becoming increasingly “populist” on economic matters.

[Full disclosure: I’ve never bought a new car in my entire life and I always maxed out my 401k contributions. I’m the foolish miser.]

Part 3. Charity isn’t what you think it is

There’s an ongoing debate over how much money billionaires ought to donate to charity. Unfortunately, most people miss the point. The issue isn’t charity vs. investment; it is consumption vs. non-consumption. A charitable person is an individual that doesn’t consume much relative to his or her wealth. If you wish to consider heirs, you might say a charitable person is someone who ensures that he or she and all their future heirs consume only a modest portion of their current wealth.

But you can also argue that a charitable person is someone that maximizes their wealth, given the share of that wealth that they intend to use for consumption (both they and their heirs.) A wealthy person can become more charitable by reducing long run family consumption of wealth from 40% to 30%, but also by increasing their total stock of wealth and keeping the consumption share at 40%.

I have no idea what Elon Musk intends to do with his wealth, but you can make an argument that the most charitable use of his current resources is to build up even more wealth, and then eventually donate most of it to a good cause. But you can also make a good argument that Bill Gates is doing the right thing by donating a very high share of his wealth to various causes that he considers to be effective forms of altruism. Either approach is defensible, and the best path partly depends on subjective estimates of how much more wealth can be generated via productive investments.

As Matt Yglesias recently pointed out, those billionaires that consume a large share of their wealth are the actual problem. I don’t wish to sound like a scold, as I undoubtedly consume more than optimal from the perspective of a utilitarian like Peter Singer. If I were a billionaire I’d probably live in a very expensive mansion in coastal California. Like most people, I’m at least somewhat selfish. If I’m pointing fingers, then I’m including myself. But as a purely factual matter, more personal consumption comes at an opportunity cost, what else could have been done with those resources? Let’s just admit that most people are a mix of selfishness and altruism.

As an aside, in my view the hardest problem is figuring out how to be effectively altruistic, if you have decided that this is the path you’d like to take. As Tyler Cowen recently suggested, billionaires often end up funding causes of questionable value. I’m not trying to use this post to provide any sort of grand theory of altruism. Rather my point is much more basic:

To be altruistic is to forego consumption for you and your heirs. That’s it.

PS. This post has only examined one aspect of the Social Security problem and there is much more that could be said on the issue. Thus, it would have been better if the Social Security system had been fully funded from the beginning. And I’d prefer the wage tax (FICA) fall 100% on employees, as this would make for more informed voters. But I understand that these ideas are politically infeasible in the US, at least at the moment, and hence view the CRFB plan as a pragmatic compromise.

PPS. Steven Landsburg has a nice defense of Scrooge:

In this whole world, there is nobody more generous than the miser—the man who could deplete the world’s resources but chooses not to. The only difference between miserliness and philanthropy is that the philanthropist serves a favored few while the miser spreads his largess far and wide.

If you build a house and refuse to buy a house, the rest of the world is one house richer. If you earn a dollar and refuse to spend a dollar, the rest of the world is one dollar richer—because you produced a dollar’s worth of goods and didn’t consume them.

Who exactly gets those goods? That depends on how you save. Put a dollar in the bank and you’ll bid down the interest rate by just enough so someone somewhere can afford an extra dollar’s worth of vacation or home improvement. Put a dollar in your mattress and (by effectively reducing the money supply) you’ll drive down prices by just enough so someone somewhere can have an extra dollar’s worth of coffee with his dinner.

What did Bastiat say? “That which is seen, and that which is not seen.”

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My email on NBA anti-tanking rules

I fear that bad management is a recurring problem with those teams. So perhaps no system of incentives can fix that.

I am not sure that bidding and superstar teams are so unpopular with the fans, especially as the NBA has become more international. Maybe ten superstars sell the league in any case, and you want them to be on very good teams.

…The incentives system also has to be palatable and explicable to the very casual fan, which I think rules out some of the more complex options. If the fans are asking “is my team trying to win or to lose now?” the system is maybe already broken.

The post My email on NBA anti-tanking rules appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Apple Still Has Jessica Chastain’s ‘The Savant’ on Ice, Seven Months After It Was Set to Debut

John Voorhees, at MacStories:

It’s a new month and you know what that means: time for a roundup of everything coming to Apple TV and Apple Arcade for April 2026.

What’s still not coming: Jessica Chastain’s political thriller The Savant, originally set for September, but rescheduled for “at a later dateout of cowardice.

Apple’s “at a later date” is looking more and more like Trump’s “in two weeks”.

 ★ 

Ask Almost A Doctor: Papal Blessing Edition

Second edition vibes generated by Gemini.

If you have questions, you can email me at eryneym@gmail.com, DM me on Twitter or Substack. Or put them in the comments below!

Also, none of the below constitutes medical advice. (Seriously. This is not medical advice - Ed.)

Enjoy.

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Algobaker @algobaker

How will the economics of capsid designs end up working out? Will there be libraries of patented designs, and any new group designing a new payload will have to choose between paying the tax to use an existing capsid they see can already do the job, vs paying to do the experiments necessary to patent-bust it?

Great question. Obligatory mention that I’m a former employee and current shareholder of Dyno Therapeutics, which (I personally think) is setting the frontier of capsid design.

Now that I’m done talking my book, let’s turn to your question. Engineering genetic delivery vectors today is mostly about picking your priorities. Generally what people try to select for is a virus that can go to specific organs / regions of the body, but there’s also considerations like avoiding the immune system, avoidance of the liver (we call this detargeting) or to a lesser extent, production efficiency. An entire field exists around trying to manipulate these viruses using AI models and fancy protein engineering, but it’s not really something that can be done without intense experimentation with very long feedback loops that take a lot of time.

How can we shave time? Well, AGI of course! This is because it’s probably the only real avenue towards avoiding the requirement of testing hypotheses in the lab. If you can avoid the experiments, you save both time and money, and thus open up a ton of options for yourself.

Until we have superhuman intelligence my sense is your need to pay the tax to the current incumbents for existing capsid IP comes down to how much you’re feeling the AGI, and secondarily, how organ-specific you need a capsid to be. Though the ideal world is one where you have a 1000-fold better brain delivery capsid than, say, AAV9 (the best “free” natural variant for the brain), you need to ask yourself whether you can get away with 5x? What about 2x? In that case it’s possible you can design your own capsid with a combination of off the shelf ML models, a good cloning and production pipeline and some non-human primates. I don’t know what it would cost you (at least $250k if I had to guess) but it would definitely take you time.

It’s worth mentioning here that when I say AGI I mean legitimately AGI, not models that are 10% better at writing code. I personally think the only real way it becomes cost efficient to engineer your own capsids instead of paying for it is that the field gets access to protein ML models that can tell you with very high confidence how a protein will behave in a zero-shot manner. Despite what you read online, we are not there yet, and we won’t be for many years.

The downstream consequences of this timeline is an exercise I will leave to the reader.

David Dales @d2dev_

Now AI is out and public figures are telling me more hospitals are hiring more doctors to use the AI - can you confirm or deny with data? I heard x-rays and MRI scans largely use AI to detect issues these days. I think it was in the last 5 minutes of the recent Lex Friedman/Jensen Huang podcast.

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I’m going to take your question to refer to radiology, as that is what people generally mean by AI replacing doctors. Radiologists are actually in such high demand that they could easily out-earn neurosurgeons if they decided to work more than a few months per year. But how can this be true? Well, let’s start by first addressing the misconception that AI is replacing radiologists.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, and also Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, are both incredibly smart guys who have gotten this one wrong completely. I won’t comment on how that happens — keep in mind they both have reason to push the narrative that AI can do complex jobs easily today — but I will say that this is a pervasive myth in the tech community. I will put it very plainly here: no hospital is replacing radiologists with AI today. While the range of what AI models can do is growing (see here this study on a new neuroradiology model from Michigan), the skillset is still incomplete, and thus hasn’t changed the job landscape at all.

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The hiring effects you see with radiologists are actually the result of something entirely unrelated to AI, and that is the rise of advanced imaging in medicine. Previously (and by previously, I mean like 50 years ago), doctors put a lot of weight in their clinical intuition and the art of the physical exam. Sadly, that is a fading skillset, but we can directly tie it to the rise of on-demand CT and MRI in healthcare. Have an ear ache? Head CT. Strange lump? Ultrasound. Think you tweaked your knee? Let’s get you an MRI. All of these things were at some point diagnosed from physical exam findings, but now get imaging. The result is that we get imaging on way more patients than we used to, and that amount is further increasing as new modalities get added.

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I can’t read the future, so I won’t make a prediction here about eventual AI capabilities in radiology. The point is though that I think the hiring happening in healthcare is very much real today.

Claire Goldsmith @c_goldsmith

What is going to happen with monoclonal antibodies over the next two decades? Everyone talks about costs coming down and this not being a particularly attractive part of the market long-term, but it’s doing very well for big players today (J&J etc). Other than patent cliffs, what do you think actually manifests that cost curve compression? Seems much more like a manufacturing problem than a design problem. Also, which comes first, broad use of mabs for more disease areas outside indication or major decrease in cost of manufacturing?

Are you feeling the AGI, Claire? Monoclonal design is getting better thanks to advances in AI-enabled protein design — faster than most proteins right now, I’d say — but honestly, target selection seems like more of the rate limiter here. Everyone seems to be tackling the same exact ideas. Structure models like AlphaFold or RosettaFold or Chai seem poised to help the design of drugs that act on established targets with improved efficacy / potency (referred to as me-betters) but they don’t really help you pick out novel idea space. In theory, that’s where AGI helps. I am not convinced we have it yet, though.

There’s another element to the economics here which is that the arrival of biosimilars (“generics” for antibodies) drives the price of monoclonal antibodies down significantly, upwards of 80%. When this happens doctors become more willing to prescribe a particular biologic for off-label use. I expect that to happen more and more, especially now that the FDA has said their goal is to make biosimilars easier to get through the pipeline.

If your question on manufacturing is one of cost, I would argue that’s not really the problem. Right now most monoclonals can be made around $100/g. If we look at the cancer buster Keytruda, which is dosed at ~2mg/kg every few weeks, you’re looking at a max of around $500 in terms of production costs. The gap between that number and the $150,000 price tag is owed to amortization of R&D and clinical trials.

Claire Goldsmith @c_goldsmith

Growing organs…. Is this working? Will we be able to do it? What problems does it actually solve? Transplant success rates after the 1-year mark are not improving, and I don’t think organ supply is the problem.

If you’re referring to growing whole organs, we’re quite far off, so I think it would be unwise to be all-in on this. There are other options though, like xenotransplantation – taking organs from other organisms (namely pigs) – which are kind of getting there. NYU has a trial for kidney transplants from pigs and as of today, the longest survival time is 9 months. Again, not bad, but as you point out, not enough. This is a little above my pay grade, but my understanding is that the main way we humanize pig organs is to eliminate endogenous retroviruses within the animal that immediately activate our immune systems if they get transplanted. Unfortunately, there seems to be some antigen that has yet to reveal itself, which ends up the same way as many human-to-human transplants — rejection.

Whole organs are a difficult business, but patches seem viable. Lots of companies are working on this, new and old. I wrote about one last year, Polyphron, but there are plenty of others. The goal of these approaches is to swap out broken bits of an organ. Also not there yet.

You didn’t ask, but I think it’s kind of cool that since our last edition, the Pope issued an official decree that Catholics are able to accept pig organs according to the Written Word. America’s Pope supports American biotech. Annuit cœptis.

waitingonyou @Imyouropnow

Why are there more investments in AI innovation at the bench rather than the beside? Do you think it might be possible to infer immunotherapeutic effects (w/o drug perturbation experiments) through, for example, cytokine-symptom effects at the bedside?

Your question reminds me of a fantastic book I read a few months before the COVID-19 pandemic, The Great Influenza. It’s about the Spanish Flu (or Kansas Flu, IYKYK). The flu accelerated medical science, but split the process of discovery between the bench and the bedside. There became a specialist class of researchers whose whole thing became studying biological phenomena independent of the treatment of patients. This is great, but it did have cultural consequences. Doctors don’t really do the physician-scientist thing like they used to. They rely on the biological sciences to be the engine of discovery and while some patient-facing physicians try things in the clinic, our healthcare system works well by having doctors mostly implement things once they’ve been established as safe and effective in small numbers via trials.

So, why is there no AI innovation at the bedside? Well, it’s not immediately useful. AI-powered tools like OpenEvidence are great for distilling dense medical literature to a specific question, but that’s not really the same thing as innovating, is it?

Now, I do think there is a lot of useful biological data to be gathered from the clinic for those with the stomach to figure out how to get it. A large part of the limitations are the fact that we have very poor measurement tools, which is why I spent some time working on this at Caltech. But the tools largely still need to be built. There probably are insights that can still be gathered, though, so if you’re an engineer or scientist who wants clinical data, try connecting with a clinician.

Towards your specific comment about cytokine-symptom effects, I expect it’s mostly just that doctors are waiting for the science to clarify what they should do. AI is best served doing that, because as things go today, that’s not really the job of doctors. An interesting question is whether AI will enable that to happen, though. That’s one whose answer has yet to reveal itself to me.

Ashlee Vance @ashleevance

If I’ve already had shingles, should I take the vaccine anyway, too?

The simple answer is yes. The longer answer is definitely yes.

Shingles is the result of varicella zoster — the virus that causes chickenpox — staying dormant in your nerves after you clear the initial infection. Because our immune systems wane in efficacy over our life, the virus generally gets reactivated resulting in what I’ve heard described as the worst pain imaginable. If you’re unlucky, you can actually get it again at some later point — having shingles once doesn’t mean you’re set for life. It’s recommended that anyone over 50 gets it. As a Sensitive Young Man of 29 Years Age, I naturally haven’t gotten the shingles shot, but I’ve heard it’s quite painful. Still, less painful than shingles!

I’ll add that a study in December 2025 in Wales shows that, while the shingles vaccine doesn’t stop dementia once it gets going, it can slow its progression down and even prevent new cases in the vaccinated. They use two different cohorts to demonstrate that the effect is real and is not the result of weird selection effects. Interestingly, they show that this effect is stronger in women than in men.

So, Miss Ashlee, I’d get your vaccine.

Happy Friday.

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In Batteries We Trust

MRSC - Battery Energy Storage Systems – Coming Soon to Your Community?

The war goes on, and so does the global energy crisis. In fact, I believe that prices of oil futures remain too low given how much spot prices will need to rise to resolve the shortages that will hit once oil supplies that were shipped before the Strait of Hormuz was closed are exhausted.

But a better future is coming, despite Donald Trump’s assault on renewable energy as he tries to drag us back into the fossil fuel past. Regardless of Trump’s chest-thumping, America is not the world. We account for only 15 percent of global energy consumption, compared with China’s 28 percent. And the rest of the world is moving rapidly to renewables, thanks to a technological revolution in solar power, wind power, and, less visibly, batteries.

So let me take an optimism break and talk about why batteries may save the world.

The decline in battery prices has been incredible. It’s like nothing anyone has ever seen before. Big, strong men with tears in their eyes come up to me and say, “Sir, have you seen the progress in batteries?”:

A graph with a line going up

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Why does this matter?

First, cheap battery storage of electricity greatly mitigates the problem of intermittency — the sun doesn’t always shine, the wind doesn’t always blow. This was a major concern early in the renewable revolution. Some energy economists scolded me for my naïve optimism when I first wrote about solar technology way back in 2011. But solar + batteries provides round-the-clock power.

Here’s a graph of California’s electricity supply generated by renewables and batteries over the course of 24 hours on April 1 that illustrates my point:

A graph of a line

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

During the middle of the day, California generates lots of electricity from solar. Much of it is poured into batteries, which provide electricity when the sun sets. Californians don’t even notice the switch.

Second, battery performance has soared as prices have plunged. Crucially, there has been a huge increase in batteries’ volumetric energy density: the amount of electricity that can be stored in a given space. Until a few years ago the energy density of gasoline gave internal combustion a huge advantage over electric vehicles. But no longer. Outside the U.S. electrification, the transition away from petroleum and towards electricity — particularly green-sourced electricity — is well underway:

A graph of sales

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Third, we should expect continuing rapid improvement in renewable energy. That’s because the progress in batteries has come from cumulative learning rather than scientific breakthroughs. Lithium-ion batteries are, in fact, a decades-old technology. Yet costs have fallen drastically and energy density risen thanks to an ongoing process of learning, which shows no sign of coming to an end.

Furthermore, we’ve seen rapid progress in all components of the green energy transformation, even though their underlying technologies have little in common. Solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries are very different, yet all have seen revolutionary improvements. This strongly suggests that the whole renewable energy complex is experiencing a virtuous circle: ever-growing use leads to falling costs and falling costs lead to ever-growing use.

If we ask where this virtuous circle is taking place, the answer is, largely in China with an assist from Europe. And the corollary is “not in America.” The United States has allowed itself to be far surpassed by China and is now only a peripheral player in the renewable revolution. Fortunately for the rest of the world, this means that the Trump administration’s hostility to renewable energy, its attempts to sabotage progress, won’t stop that revolution or even noticeably slow its momentum. True, Trump’s anti-green, pro-pollution tilt will serve to leave America further behind, but progress in fighting climate change and reducing the risks of global dependence on oil will continue.

So although we are now in the midst of a severe energy crisis that could easily go on for many months, this too shall pass. A better, cheaper, cleaner energy future is on the way, and not even Trump can stop it.

MUSICAL CODA

Can JavaScript Escape a CSP Meta Tag Inside an Iframe?

Research: Can JavaScript Escape a CSP Meta Tag Inside an Iframe?

In trying to build my own version of Claude Artifacts I got curious about options for applying CSP headers to content in sandboxed iframes without using a separate domain to host the files. Turns out you can inject <meta http-equiv="Content-Security-Policy"...> tags at the top of the iframe content and they'll be obeyed even if subsequent untrusted JavaScript tries to manipulate them.

Tags: iframes, security, javascript, content-security-policy, sandboxing

The Axios supply chain attack used individually targeted social engineering

The Axios team have published a full postmortem on the supply chain attack which resulted in a malware dependency going out in a release the other day, and it involved a sophisticated social engineering campaign targeting one of their maintainers directly. Here's Jason Saayman'a description of how that worked:

so the attack vector mimics what google has documented here: https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/threat-intelligence/unc1069-targets-cryptocurrency-ai-social-engineering

they tailored this process specifically to me by doing the following:

  • they reached out masquerading as the founder of a company they had cloned the companys founders likeness as well as the company itself.
  • they then invited me to a real slack workspace. this workspace was branded to the companies ci and named in a plausible manner. the slack was thought out very well, they had channels where they were sharing linked-in posts, the linked in posts i presume just went to the real companys account but it was super convincing etc. they even had what i presume were fake profiles of the team of the company but also number of other oss maintainers.
  • they scheduled a meeting with me to connect. the meeting was on ms teams. the meeting had what seemed to be a group of people that were involved.
  • the meeting said something on my system was out of date. i installed the missing item as i presumed it was something to do with teams, and this was the RAT.
  • everything was extremely well co-ordinated looked legit and was done in a professional manner.

A RAT is a Remote Access Trojan - this was the software which stole the developer's credentials which could then be used to publish the malicious package.

That's a very effective scam. I join a lot of meetings where I find myself needing to install Webex or Microsoft Teams or similar at the last moment and the time constraint means I always click "yes" to things as quickly as possible to make sure I don't join late.

Every maintainer of open source software used by enough people to be worth taking in this way needs to be familiar with this attack strategy.

Tags: open-source, packaging, security, social-engineering, supply-chain

Friday assorted links

1. Ben Yeoh on Measure for Measure.

2. How much is a badly damaged Gentileschi worth?

3. Sabine Hossenfelder on UAP evidence.  And a bit more.

4. New record as Indian painting auctions for $17.9 million.

5. On African urbanization.

6. South Africa banned TV until 1976.

7. Ping Pong Park, in France.

8. How do AI models respond to direct authoritarian requests?

9. Lynne Kiesling on which parts of economics will be repriced, as a result of AI.

10. How replaceable am I?  An agent takes on that question.  And another Karpathy idea.

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The Week Observed: April 3, 2026

What City Observatory Did This Week

A freeway doesn’t run through it.  The New York Times had a feature on Portland, calling the city “weird” and adding life is good.  It features a photo of the blossoming cherry trees along the Willamette River, but fails to note that it was exactly this site that a Robert Moses-inspired freeway had cut the center of the city off from its riverfront.  That all changed half a century ago, when, in response to citizen activism, the city chose to tear out the freeway, build a park, and ultimately, plant cherry trees.

Left:  Tom McCall Waterfront Park, 2026.  –   Right:  Same Place, 1950:  Harbor Drive Freeway

Its a reminder that when we build cities for people, and not for cars, we get startling results for the better.  Portland flourished economically in the decades after tearing out the old Harbor Drive Expressway.  The city gained more economically from the freeways it demolished, and from the ones it never built, than the ones it did.

Must Read

 

Paris voters endorse a bike friendly city.  Over the past twelve years, Mayor Anne Hidalgo has transformed Paris investing in new bike infrastructure and pedestrian streets, and boldly taking street space back from cars and giving it to people.  To someone who has visited the city for decades, the last few years have witnessed the most rapid and remarkable transformation.  Principal streets like the Rue du Rivoli are a steady stream of people on bikes. The city is both more alive and busier, and in many respects, quieter, as the walking and pedaling traffic is far less noisy that les voitures.  But as in the United States, none of this shift happened with out a loud outcry from opponents.  There were some signs that when Mayor Anne retired, as she chose to do this year, she would be replaced by a car advocate.

Instead, her successor, fellow socialist Emmanuel Grégoire cruised to victory–taking a victory lap on a Velib’ bicycle on election night, has he beat back and centrist-right wing coalition candidate by more than 10 points.   As Ron Johnson notes at Momentum Magazine, this signals that a largely quiet, if not silent, majority actually endorsed these transportation changes, and vastly outnumbered the noisy opponents.

What Paris may have just revealed is a classic case of pluralistic ignorance — when large numbers of people quietly support a policy but assume they’re in the minority. In that vacuum, critics dominate the conversation, creating the illusion of widespread opposition. Bike lanes become “controversial.” Traffic calming becomes “divisive.” And politicians elsewhere take note — often the wrong lesson.

Mission accomplished:   The Trump Administration squelches immigration to across the country.  New Census data, reported by the New York Times, shows that in 2025, immigration declined to every metropolitan area in the United States.  For a nation founded upon, and thriving because of immigration, this is a body blow.  It is particularly devastating to cities, which have traditionally been the point of entry and assimilation into the United States.  As the Times reports:

Every metro area in the United States, in fact, experienced lower immigration rates during the year leading up to July 2025 compared with the previous year, according to new estimates released on Thursday by the Census Bureau. In about 75 percent of all counties, overall population growth — including immigration, domestic migration, births and deaths — either slowed or turned negative. Only 25 percent grew faster. And large urban counties and border counties, which had experienced a surge in new arrivals in recent years, were among the hardest-hit parts of the country.

And naive xenophobic claims that immigration hurts the economic condition of current residents are not just flatly wrong, they’re exactly backwards.  The American economy benefits from immigration.  A whole range of industries, from agriculture, to food service, to construction and increasingly, to health care, depend on migrants to address a growing shortage of labor.  Careful economic studies show immigrants complement native-born workers, and tend to drive up compensation.  And, as Paul Krugman explains, cracking down on immigration and scaring away potential immigrants is making the economy and our fiscal situation worse, not better:

. . . waging war against immigrants is not resulting in higher employment of the native-born. In fact, it’s contributing to a stalling of the economy in construction and in the service industries.  . . . Immigration expands the base of taxpayers, which means more people to share the burden of paying taxes to pay for defense. This includes undocumented immigrants, because their employers collect payroll taxes out of their wages, with the added fiscal payoff that they will never collect benefits. And because immigrants are relatively young and healthy, they increase the amount going into government coffers while having a delayed impact on outlays. The Social Security Administration does sensitivity analysis of factors affecting its projections, and consistently finds that higher immigration improves the system’s financial health, while lower immigration worsens it.

The Trump Administration assault on immigration and immigrants, is profoundly immoral and un-American.  And it plainly threatens one of the key foundations of long term U.S. prosperity.

Can your mayoral candidate do this? Nithya Raman, who is running for Mayor of Los Angeles has a minute-long video that neatly explains the reasons the city has a housing affordability problem and what she would do about it.  She even includes a scatter plot of metro area rent and housing data, with a regression line and an R-squared value.

So, Nithya.  Why is the rent so damn high in Los Angeles?

Angelenos, and residents of just about any city could greatly benefit from leaders like this who can speak with such clarity, and forcefully marshal data to make their case.

 

 

 

Harbor Drive

Greetings from war-ravaged Portland!  Here, according to the March 25, 2026 New York Times, is what the city looks like now, at pretty much the epicenter of a so-called doom-loop.  Clouds of sakura (cherry blossoms) float over the park that runs along the Willamette River in the center of the city.
 If anything, the Times photos understate just how many people are drawn to the spot by the simple reverie of the blossoms.  Here’s what the same spot looked like a couple of days before the Times article:
Sure, now, its a picture-post card tourist attraction.  It didn’t always look this way.
This is exactly the place where, half a century ago, Portland tore out the Harbor Drive freeway that cut off the city from its riverfront, and instead built a park.  In the 1950s, this same area looked like this.
If highway engineers and the chamber of commerce had their way, Portland’s waterfront would still look like this.
The freeway was built, pretty much following the advice of Robert Moses, in the 1940s.  They leveled Portland’s waterfront and built an expressway along the Willamette River.  In the 1960s, many citizens started lobbying to turn the area into a park.  At least initially, they were blocked by the powers-that-be who equated roadways with economic activity.  A nine-man task force (all its members were men) was appointed by the Mayor and Governor, and chaired by Glenn Jackson–Chair of the city’s largest utility and chair of the state transportation commission–to re-evaluate possible uses of the waterfront.  The business community objected to calls to remove Harbor Drive, and the highway engineers said the roadway was needed to meet growing traffic.  The state highway department actually recommended expanding Harbor Drive from four lanes to six.
. . . in spite of this public outcry the taskforce reinforced the decision to retain the 6 lane freeway in the relocated location stating that “the state highway engineers projected there would be 90,000 trips per day in the corridor by 1990” and there was no way one could get rid of Harbor Drive.
Ultimately, in the face of public protests, Governor Tom McCall prevailed on Jackson and the state highway department to agree to remove Harbor Drive, and allow the city of Portland to turn the area in to a park.  The park was a centerpiece of the city’s new downtown plan, which helped trigger a rennaisance in a city that had been in decline.  The quirkiness and high quality of life praised in the New York Times radiates from the city’s revived center and waterfront.
The lesson here is simple:  Freeways are toxic to urban space and city economies.  Jeffrey Brinkman and Jeffrey Lin of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve studied the effect of freeway construction on urban neighborhoods and found the more freeways a city built, the more its population declined, and the closer a city neighborhood was to a freeway, the more population it lost.  Freeway construction directly destroy housing and businesses, but that’s just the beginning.  Car dependence, and the traffic and pollution from vehicles, lowers the quality of life, and drives away residents.  Portland’s economy has always benefited more from the freeways it demolished, and the ones it never built, than the one’s that sliced through city neighborhoods.
And the park that now stands where the freeway once stood is not merely a bit of urban greenery, its an important civic space in its own right.  For example, No Kings demonstrations in Portland, like this one in 2025 took place on symbolically important ground in the heart of the city.  Tens of thousands marched along Naito Parkway and Governor Tom McCall Waterfront Park, and through the Japanese-American Memorial Plaza.
The Naito Parkway honors civic leader Bill Naito, who was among those pushed out of Portland in the early days of World War II by the federal government’s illegal “internment” of Japanese Americans.  Cities are the places where we come together to seek redress of grievances and exercise these fundamental rights.

The President(s) Fought the Law and the Law Won

In our textbook, Modern Principles, Tyler and I emphasize that Congress and the President are subject to a higher law, the law of supply and demand. In an excellent column, Jason Furman gives a clear example of how difficult it is to fight the law of inelastic demand:

…Today a given number of autoworkers can make, according to my calculations, three times as many cars in a year as they could 50 years ago.

The problem is that consumers do not want three times as many cars. Even as people get richer, they increase their spending on manufactured goods only modestly, preferring instead to spend more on services like travel, health care and dining out. There are only so many cars a family can own, but that’s not the case for expensive vacations or fancy meals. As a result we have fewer people working in auto factories and more people working in luxury resorts and the like.

These forces — rising productivity but steady demand — explain why the United States was losing manufacturing job share as far back as the 1950s and 1960s, long before trade became a major factor.

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Day Counter

It has been −2,147,483,648 days since our last integer overflow.

China’s commercial Tianlong-3 rocket fails on debut launch

Full-scale mockup of Space Pioneer's Tianlong-3 rocket stands vertically on a newly completed launch pad at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Zone, located in the desert landscape of Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. The launch pad is equipped with support towers, fueling infrastructure, and ground facilities visible under clear blue skies.

The first launch of the Tianlong-3 rocket from Chinese commercial firm Space Pioneer failed Friday after suffering an anomaly in its ascent phase.

The post China’s commercial Tianlong-3 rocket fails on debut launch appeared first on SpaceNews.

Artemis 2 heads to the moon

Orion and crescent earth

NASA’s Artemis 2 mission is on its way to the moon after a successful maneuver April 2.

The post Artemis 2 heads to the moon appeared first on SpaceNews.

Swift spacecraft reorientation buys time for reboost mission

LINK and Swift

NASA modified operations of an astrophysics spacecraft in a decaying orbit to buy more time for a mission later this year that will attempt to raise its orbit.

The post Swift spacecraft reorientation buys time for reboost mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Stanford remembers John Roberts (1945-2026)

 Economist John Roberts, leader in organizational research, dies at 80
The Stanford professor’s work brought game theory to management practices in firms around the world. 

"Donald John Roberts, the John H. Scully Professor of Economics, Strategic Management and International Business, Emeritus, died Jan. 23 after a long illness. He was 80.

"His start at Stanford GSB was carefully cultivated. When economics professor Robert Wilson began growing the economics faculty at the business school in the late 1970s, he had already recruited an impressive group of young scholars. But he needed someone to shape the intellectual direction of the program.

"Wilson believed Roberts was that person.

At the time, Roberts was a young professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, already known for his teaching credentials and research in economic theory. Wilson persuaded him to join Stanford in 1980, bringing him west to help build what would become one of the most influential economics groups in academia.

“John played a central role in shaping the direction of the economics group in those years,” says Wilson, the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management, Emeritus, and winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. “He had a remarkable ability to see where an idea could lead and to push it until the logic became clear.”

"Roberts remained at the school until his retirement in 2012. At Stanford GSB, he helped lead the doctoral program, mentored younger faculty, and played a central role in recruiting a generation of economists whose work reshaped the field. His four decades of research helped transform how economists study organizations and their management, bringing rigorous economic theory to questions about how firms function internally.

...
“Besides his scholarship, John was an institution builder who helped shape the intellectual culture of the school,” says David M. Kreps, the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management, Emeritus. “John helped create an environment where both ambitious research and professional education thrived. He was the personification of balanced excellence.” 

When trauma becomes trope

A young boy in a car’s front seat with adults in the other seats on a dusty road with a dark, stormy sky in the background.

Humanitarian journalism is a moral calling to document human suffering. But in practice, it’s an ethically murky undertaking

- by Cathy Otten

Read on Aeon

The Happiness Crash of 2020

From the still-active Sam Peltzman:

I document a sudden, sharp and historically unprecedented decline in self-reported happiness in the US population. It occurred during 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic, and mainly persists through 2024. This happiness crash spread across nearly all typical demographics and geographies. The happiest groups pre-Covid (e.g., whites, high income, well-educated and politically/ideologically right-leaning) tend to show the largest happiness reductions. The glaring exception is marital status, which has consistently been an important marker for happiness. The already wide happiness premium for marriage has, if anything, become slightly wider. With both married and unmarried reporting large declines in happiness the country has become segregated: slightly over half-the married adults-remain happy on balance; the unmarried, nearly half, are now distinctly unhappy. I also show that across a number of aspects of personal and social capital post-Covid deterioration is the norm, including a collapse of belief in the fairness of others and of trust in the US Supreme Court.

Here is the paper, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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Gas Town: from Clown Show to v1.0

TL;DR: Gas Town and Beads have both released version 1.0.0 today. Enjoy!

Gas Town and Beads hit v1.0.0

It has been a wild 3-month ride since I launched Gas Town.

First there was the part where I was like nooo don’t use it, and everyone was like, hold my beer. I am so glad some of you ignored me so hard. It’s just what I’d hoped for. You early adopters helped pave the way for everyone else.

And we went through some chaotic times early on. There were the serial killer sprees, viciously taking out random workers mid-job. (It’s always the Deacon, the modern-day Butler in the Gas Town murder mysteries.) There was the 22-nose Clown Show, where the Mayor scored a new clown nose every time it had massive data loss, which went on for weeks. And more. We’ve had our share of trying times, honking alert noses, piles of worker corpses. All long past us now.

The Gas Town Serial Murders and Clown Show

Despite the early bumps, we’ve continued to enjoy absolutely massive community engagement. Even though Gas Town “only” has 13k stars (at 3 months!), it has hundreds of enthusiastic committers, and bugs get noticed and fixed fast.

It’s safe to say that Gas Town has largely been in maintenance mode since the Dolt migration finished up, and that was well over a month ago. I’ve continued to allow a few nice features here and there, but for the most part we are now directing people’s creative efforts to the successor, Gas City, which is in alpha testing and on track for a fast GA.

And maintenance mode is a good thing! It means it’s not thrashing. Gas Town “just works.” It does its job, it has tons of integration points, and it has been stable for many weeks. People are using it to build real stuff.

As one example, Gene Kim and I were chatting with a very cool midsize company, who are making a company-wide move to adopt agentic AI. A person in their Communications department, who is a Comms major four years out of school, shared with us (to our lasting astonishment) that she has been using Gas Town since “a few weeks after it came out.” She decided to build replacement for a niche but pricey SaaS product their company has been paying for. She’s working with another non-technologist on it, and it’s so good the company is getting ready to switch over to it. Amazing!

Anyone can build software with Gas Town — and people are!

Non-technologists using Gas town to build software! It sounds crazy but I’m seeing it all over. People in academia, non-technical knowledge workers, even just people curious about vibe coding; all are figuring it out.

So as far as I’m concerned, Gas Town is ready. That’s why I feel it merits a 1.0.0 release.

To get started, you just have your coding agent install it, and talk to the Mayor. More on that below. The Mayor is cool. You’ll like the Mayor.

Importantly, we are also rolling Beads to version 1.0.0 today. Beads is the secret sauce that makes Gas Town and Gas City both possible and best-of-class. I’ll spend some time talking about Beads before we get back to Gas Town.

Beads: The Memory Revolution

Last year I noticed that agents were struggling with basic stuff: working memory, and simple task tracking. They had zero attention span and developed progressive dementia. That led me to create Beads, which is a drop-in, generic, unopinionated memory system and knowledge graph for coding agents. Beads gives your coding agent sudden clarity and long-horizon planning capability.

Beads started life back in October as a lightweight issue tracker with version control. But it quickly became clear that it was like Adderall for your agent. It is an instant cognitive upgrade for any coding agent, even replacing their built-in memory and task tracking systems with a system that’s more powerful, more portable, and every bit as transparent and easy to use. You don’t need to know Beads in order to use it; your agent handles it all.

Over time, it became clear that Beads was a sort of universal discovery, a gift that keeps giving. It’s way more than an issue tracker, and is evolving gradually into something more like a universal ledger for all knowledge work. One that agents happen to really, really like.

It was a high-level insight from Chris Sells, an old friend of mine and (with Julian Knutsen) the co-creator of Gas City, that helped crystallize for me why Beads seems to solve so many problems at once: Beads is the Why.

Beads is the Missing Why

In Beads, every work item becomes a bead. A bead is just a structure with some fields: a lightweight bug/issue report, with a title, description, status, etc. Beads are stored and versioned in Git, linked together as a multi-graph, and they are queryable with SQL like a database. Best of all worlds.

Versioning your Beads is critical: you get a complete historical log of every change to any Bead, trivial to query. So in multi-agent environments, everyone using Beads can tell what everyone else using Beads did, and why.

Your project’s Git commit history has always been your permanent ledger that contains the What, Where, Who, and How of what happened to your code. But as Chris Sells astutely observed a few months back, Beads is the Why — the missing piece in your commit history. It completes the data-warehousing picture of your project needed (by agents) for forensics, recovery, onboarding, design, and more. Having this information handy is invaluable for agents when they are trying to reconstruct how we got where we are.

Beads: The Missing Why for your projects

Individual beads capture and record all your work on the Git ledger, through its entire lifecycle, from planning/design, through implementation, and then they form the audit trail after the work is closed. This isn’t limited to development work, either; you can use it anything. Someone once told me they use Beads for their grocery shopping (which they do with an agent.)

A key insight was that you can use Beads for defining and tracking orchestration work, which is how Gas Town and Gas City operate. Beads string together into “molecules” that have deterministic steps to follow, for patrols, releases, etc. Every step an agent takes in a Beads-based workflow is recorded on a ledger. This acts like a save-game that you can roll back to, or at least use to see how you got where you are.

Beads is for Literally Everyone, and Everything

Beads is completely unaware of Gas Town (though Gas Town uses Beads as a dependency.) You can use Beads by itself and get a vastly improved agentic experience, no matter which coding agent you’re using. Unlike Gas Town, which only works with a handful of agents today, Beads works with anything and everything, as long as it’s roughly as smart as Claude Sonnet 3.5 was.

People who switch to Beads soon realize they can build their own workflows and orchestration using nothing but Beads. It’s an incredibly powerful and versatile data plane. Once you start storing stuff in Beads, you kind of want everything there. It doesn’t solve the memory problem by itself, but it certainly gives you a solid foundation for solving it your own way.

Beads crossed 20k stars on GitHub this week, a bit over 5 months since launch. I have not been much of a GitHub user for most of my career, so I didn’t appreciate how unusual 20k stars is until this week. Chris, Julian and I all guessed that roughly 10k-20k repos would be that popular. But we were way off. You can browse them all with a query. There are currently 1988 with more than 20k stars.

So Beads is already in roughly the top 2000 GitHub repos, out of some 300 million. That’s pretty rarified air. But it makes sense. I mean, it just works. It’s soooo easy. You start using Beads, everything becomes a bead, and life with agents just starts getting easier.

Beads enters the stratosphere with 20k stars

Beads: Ready for v1

I held out on a v1.0.0 release for Beads for months because I had a feeling it would become clear when it’s ready for prime time. With the recent completion of Beads with Embedded Dolt by the amazing Dolt team, Beads is finally back to its Day Zero experience. We have managed to land on an architecture and implementation that serve all the key audiences:

  • Solo, single-player users with just a coding agent or a chat session. Great experience out of the box, simple setup, syncs to GitHub automatically.
  • Multi-agent power users who might be working on multiple projects or workflows.
  • Gas Town users doing high-velocity orchestration on heavy-duty project work.
  • Gas City users doing multiple projects and enterprise-level orchestration setups.
  • Wasteland and other federation users, who want the power of Dolt, Git, and Beads as a work federation protocol.
  • Anyone building their own orchestrator.

Many of these audiences were poorly served by the original, janky Beads architecture of SQLite + JSONL + awkward syncing and tons of merge conflicts. When it did work, it was often last-write wins semantics with SQLite just taking “whatever” happened to win. Not exactly enterprise-grade building material.

All that jank is gone. Torn out of the code base entirely. Beads is now backed with the power of Dolt, which itself sports an impressive 22k GH stars. The inherent fragility of the v0.x Beads architecture, with its bidirectional sync, 3-way merge, two sources of truth, race conditions, and tombstone hell — that’s all gone now. Dolt was designed to handle all this stuff gracefully. We got incredibly lucky that it exists at all.

Now that Beads is stable on Dolt, with both embedded and server-mode fully supported, v1.0.0 is the right call. I’ve moved the Beads repo into the gastownhall org (soon to be gascityhall), where we will continue to support Beads as a first-class standalone product for non-GT/GC users.

Dolt: Migration complete!

Gas Town: It’s That Dang Mayor

I want to chat a little more about what we’ve learned about Gas Town before we wrap.

One of the reasons that people like Gas Town is that they don’t have to read as much, or even pay attention as closely. It’s more like DM’ing with a friend.

Claude Code makes you read. A lot. It doesn’t matter if you don’t like reading, or if this isn’t your native tongue, or if you’re busy, or tired. With coding agents, you’re gonna do some reading. Read read read read. It’s like a stevey post gone wild, running rampage, in every session. But make sure you don’t miss anything important!

I read just fine, and even I didn’t like doing all that reading. Most of it clearly could have been read by a model, saving me the trouble. I wanted something else, some other interface, but wasn’t sure what. I just didn’t want to have to read so much unnecessary cruft.

I spent a bunch of time building orchestrators last year, trying to get Claude to run Claude. At first, I was trying to achieve the elusive “visibility without reading” by chasing classic Observability. I was initially thinking that I wanted dashboards or activity feeds or some other visualization of my town’s workers. And some people still do like those, and they can be handy.

But after a while I realized I just wanted someone to talk to, while the system was working. And perhaps, as occasion might demand, someone to yell at.

The Mayor abstraction turned out to be perfect. Mayors are there to get yelled at. A Mayor isn’t so distant, like some higher-level governor or executive, to whom yelling seems like it will go unheard. A city mayor is ostensibly someone who has your local interests at heart, so the mayor is who you yell at first. It’s a social custom going back centuries. As one famous and rather wise U.S. mayor put it a week ago, if your constituents aren’t yelling at you, it’s because they aren’t around at all, and you don’t want that.

Programming in 2026 will become talking to a face

With the Gas Town Mayor, you feel like you’re operating at a special level, a VIP, above all the workers. You are talking to someone important: the mayor of a factory the size of a town. You have access to someone with resources, someone who gets you, someone who appreciates how busy you are.

Working with regular coding agents just doesn’t give you that special feeling. I’m not making this up; this is a pretty consistent report I get from the field, from people around the world, particularly nontechnical people. I truly think it comes down to the Mayor giving you less stuff to read.

Claude Code only has one way to tell you what’s going on, which is to tell you what’s going on. It babbles while it works. “Now I will run this awk script s@(*fj$&h(*!&. Now I will print 8 pages of recaps. Now I’m deleting your database. Now I’m printing more recaps, and running another script here is the code #$AWESR@#$.”

Claude Code is a wall of scrolling text. The harder it works, the scrollier it gets. Now imagine having 10 standard coding agents running. Any agent, could be Codex, whatever. Ten of them puking out text. And you have to sort through all their output to find the nuggets of actually interesting stuff you need to know about, like the part where they’re deleting the database.

This is why people love Gas Town. The Mayor reads all that crap that the workers are printing. The Mayor knows your context, your hopes and dreams. The Mayor has an army of polecats it can whip up when it needs to. The Mayor has all these cool-sounding resources, like the Crew and Convoys and Dog patrols, that it can bring to bear on your problem. Just say the word, the Mayor’s on it for you.

Claude Code and some other agents are trying to turn themselves into dark factories, by running subagents, and providing their own task management, memory systems, etc. But so far, they’re all trying to do it with a product lens, no platform to speak of — a monolith. I’ve read some interesting blog posts about that approach, but safe to say I’m not a fan.

Gas Town at least lets you talk to your agents as first class citizens, with externally visible identities; Gas City takes it further and decomposes the entire stack into a modular platform architecture.

In short, what’s behind the Mayor also matters, and as soon as people start getting curious, today’s coding agents immediately disappoint. And believe you me, people are getting curious. And they’re finding their way to Gas Town.

The Mayor does your reading for you, so you can supervise

Ultimately the Mayor is doing way more than just saving you a bunch of reading. It is your personal concierge. If Claude Code is an Executive Assistant, then the Gas Town Mayor is more like your Chief of Staff, who manages a full team of capable EAs, all working for you behind the scenes.

I’ve been saying since last year that by the end of 2026, people will be mostly programming by talking to a face. There’s absolutely NO reason to type with the Mayor. You should be able to chat with them like a person. You’ll have a cartoon fox there onscreen, in costume, building and managing your production software, and showing you pretty status updates whenever you ask for one. This is the end state for IDEs.

On to Gas City

As I mentioned in my long-overdue Vibe Maintainer post, we’re going to start gently nudging everyone towards Gas City. You literally just install it, import your Gas Town configuration, and then you’re using that instead of Gas Town. It’s functionally identical, when used as a dev IDE.

Except with Gas City, you can now build your own orchestrators using all the Gas Town primitives: identity, roles, messaging, mail, sessions, cost tracking, multi-model dispatch, skills, prompting and priming, hooks, GUPP, NDI, formulas, molecules, beads, epics, convoys, orders, patrols, plugins, tmux, seances, and more more more. It’s all there. You can mix and match to create arbitrarily simple or fancy orchestrators, with all their work logged to a beautiful set of git ledgers.

There will be nothing like it. You are going to want to use Gas City. We will have some imitators, but I’m not worried. Ask your agent to dig into Dolt federation and have a look at our Wasteland, and you’ll quickly see why this is a superior way to do work.

I can’t begin to express my excitement about Gas City. It is all MIT-licensed, supported by a growing team of enthusiasts, and it is already starting to have legit hosting options for people who want to build orchestration in the cloud. I will have a detailed post about it when we get closer to GA, when it’s late beta and ready for wider adoption.

But no need to wait. At a high level, Gas City is the answer to all your problems. Ha! At least, for certain classes of problem, such as, “How can I bring AI into my company and pass an audit trail,” “How can I rid myself of gougy niche SaaS by in-sourcing it all to AI,” and similar. I know you’re all thinking about it!

Stay tuned. I have another blog post hot on this one’s heels. I’m giving some talks next week, one in NYC and one in San Jose, and I figured, why not just spill all my talk secrets in a public blog so that I have nothing interesting or new to add during my talks!

Anyway, that’s a wrap! Congrats to the Beads community for riding the wave to the 1.0 release and 20k stars, and for finally getting a solid embedded-Dolt experience. Thanks to the Dolt team and Dustin Brown for that! And congrats to everyone who has used Gas Town to do something cool. I couldn’t be happier!

Finally, a huge thank you to the core team who have all worked incredibly hard to bring you Gas Town, Gas City, the Wasteland, and much more to come. From left to right, skipping me the panda, there’s Matt Beane, Chris Sells, Julian Knutsen, Tim Sehn, and Brendan Hopper. We’ve got so much more in store for this ecosystem. Come join our Discord at gastownhall.ai!

Gas Town Ecosystem Generals: Matt, Chris, Steve, Julian, Tim, Brendan

April 2, 2026.   Security Squander?

I guess, for the sake of temporary reprieve, we’re glad for the push to get TSA workers paid again and back to work. The security lines were becoming abysmal.

Count me among those a little disappointed, however. Ultimately, what we need isn’t to keep TSA funded, but quite the opposite. We need to dismantle the entire thing and start over. As I’ve been opining for years, our approach to airport security is, for the most part, a colossal waste of time and money. It needs to be rethought and rebuilt.

We may have lost a moment.

 

The post April 2, 2026.   Security Squander? appeared first on AskThePilot.com.

Barents Sea Tied to Low Arctic Sea Ice

Dark open water lies south of thin, broken up sea ice near Franz Josef Land, with a thin layer of clouds covering part of the scene.
Thin, broken-up sea ice and areas of open water dominate the northern Barents Sea in this image acquired on March 17, 2026, by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite.

At the top of the planet, the cap of sea ice across Arctic waters grows and shrinks with the seasons, usually reaching its annual maximum extent in March. In 2026, this peak occurred on March 15, when the extent reached 14.29 million square kilometers, matching the lowest maximum observed since satellite monitoring began in 1979. One of the key areas contributing to the low maximum this year was the Barents Sea.

The Barents Sea lies at the periphery of the Arctic Ocean, bordered to the northwest by the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, and to the northeast and east by the Russian islands of Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya, respectively. It is one of more than a dozen subregions—including the Central Arctic Ocean and nearby seas, bays, and waterways—across which scientists use remote sensing to track sea ice. The region is important for fisheries, shipping routes, and scientific research.

On March 17, 2026, the Terra satellite captured this image of the northern Barents Sea. Near Franz Josef Land, broken sea ice drifted near areas of open water closer to Novaya Zemlya. The region is often cloudy, as it was that day, but most clouds were thin enough to reveal the sea ice and water below.

In addition to the low extent, data from NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite indicate that Barents sea ice in mid-March 2026 was also very thin, according to Nathan Kurtz, chief of the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

Previous years, such as 2021 and 2025, also saw especially thin ice around the time of the maximum. “What was striking this year, however, was that the ice was also completely melted away in more of the Barents Sea, in addition to areas of thinning spreading northward,” Kurtz said.

On the opposite side of the Arctic, the Sea of Okhotsk also contributed to the low total sea ice extent across the Arctic in March 2026. But the factors driving the losses differ between the two regions.

In the Barents, studies have shown that the main driver is large-scale atmospheric circulation, with winds channeling warm, humid air from the North Atlantic straight into the area, accelerating melt. These winds can be influenced by tropical weather thousands of miles away. Disturbances originating over the Maritime Continent near Indonesia can “send ripples through the atmosphere that reach the Arctic within one to two weeks,” Kurtz said.

In contrast, the Sea of Okhotsk mostly has thin, seasonal ice that changes thickness from year to year. Local winds play a big role, sometimes pushing the ice together to create thicker, ridged areas, and other times spreading it out, making it thinner. Because of this, the ice loss there is mainly driven by local weather, unlike in the Barents Sea, where distant atmospheric forces have a greater impact.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Michala Garrison, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview. Story by Kathryn Hansen.

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What I’ve been reading

1. Allister Sparks, The Mind of South Africa: The Story of the Rise and Fall of Apartheid.  This history book actually tries to explain to the reader how things were.  Oh such books are so rare!  (Why is that?)  Definitely recommended, written at the very end of the apartheid era which gives it yet another angle of interest.

2. Nic von Wielligh and Lydia von Wielligh-Steyn, The Bomb: South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Programme.  I had been looking for a book on this topic for a long time, and finally I found the right one in a South African bookshop.  They did build six atomic bombs, almost seven, and this is the story of how that started and was later reversed.  Hundreds of pages of substantive detail, and I had not realized how much the conflict in Angola, and Cuban/Soviet involvement, was a major factor in the whole episode.

3. David Stuart, The Four Heavens: A New History of the Ancient Maya.  We keep on learning lots about the Maya, and this is the best book to follow what has been going on.  Well-written and clear, and it does not numb your mind with details you may not care about.

4. Mark B. Smith, Exit Stalin: The Soviet Union as a Civilization 1953-1991.  I am seeing an increasing number of excellent books on what the Soviet Union really was.  This one is well written, broad in scope, and yet rich in detail, treating the covered era as a living, breathing time in human history.  It makes the time and place imaginable.  The book also goes a long way toward disaggregating different Soviet eras, rather than just the end of Stalinism.

5. Kevin Hartnett, The Proof is in the Code: How a Truth Machine is Transforming Math and AI.  A very useful book about the history of proving math theorems by computer.

The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Beyond the Lowest Bid: Identifying a Printer That Can Scale with Your Campaign

In the world of politics, time isn’t just money – it’s momentum, and momentum is everything. Election cycles are notoriously volatile, moving from a quiet stroll to a full-blown sprint in the blink of an eye. For a campaign manager, the pressure to stay visible while responding to a rapidly changing landscape is a constant weight. You need a team behind you that understands that a delay of even a few days can feel like a lifetime when the polls are about to open.

Most local print shops are great for a small business that needs a few hundred business cards or a single banner for a grand opening. However, those same shops often crumble when they are hit with an order for ten thousand yard signs on a Tuesday afternoon. Political work requires a level of intensity and a specific understanding of deadlines that your average commercial printer simply isn’t built to handle. You aren’t just looking for a vendor; you’re looking for a logistical partner who can survive the storm with you.

Choosing the wrong partner can lead to empty street corners and missed opportunities just when the race is heating up. It’s about finding a facility that has the horsepower to keep up with your growth and the flexibility to pivot when the strategy changes. Knowing how to choose a political printer that can handle the unique demands of a campaign is essential to protecting your candidate’s success.

Analyzing Throughput and Production Capacity

When you’re vetting a potential printer, the first thing you need to look at is their actual “throughput capacity.” This isn’t just about how many machines they have on the floor, but how fast those machines can actually turn a digital file into a finished product. In a tight race, you might need thousands of signs printed, dried, and ready for pickup within a forty-eight-hour window. If a shop can’t guarantee that kind of speed, they are a liability to your field operation.

High-volume printing requires specialized equipment that can run around the clock without breaking down or losing quality. You want a shop that has invested in industrial-grade presses designed for speed and consistency across every single unit. Ask them about their peak capacity and how they handle multiple large orders simultaneously during the busy season. A printer that is already at eighty percent capacity before you even place your order is a recipe for disaster.

Efficiency in the back-end logistics is just as important as the speed of the press itself. You need to know that they have the staff to handle the trimming, the grommeting, and the packaging without creating a bottleneck in the warehouse. A fast printer with a slow finishing department is still a slow printer at the end of the day. Verify that their entire workflow is optimized for the kind of rapid-fire production that political campaigns demand.

The Importance of the Union Label

For many political organizations and candidates, the presence of a “Union Label”—often called the Union Bug—is a non-negotiable requirement for all printed materials. This small mark signals to voters and labor groups that the campaign supports fair wages and professional working conditions. In a competitive primary or a general election, failing to include this label on your signs can lead to significant blowback from key stakeholders. It’s a small detail that carries a massive amount of political weight.

The Union Bug acts as a symbol of solidarity and a commitment to the local workforce that resonates deeply with many voter demographics. It shows that you aren’t just looking for the cheapest possible option, but that you value the people who are actually building your campaign materials. For some organizations, the absence of this mark is enough to withhold an endorsement or a donation. It is a vital part of your brand’s “street cred” and its overall standing in the community.

Not every print shop is authorized to use these labels, so you must verify this capability long before you sign a contract. A shop that claims they can “just add it” without a legitimate union agreement is putting your campaign at serious legal and reputational risk. Make sure you’re working with a shop that is fully certified and understands the specific placement rules for these marks. The Union Bug is an essential tool for building trust with a large and influential part of the electorate.

Prioritizing Reliability Over the Initial Low Bid

When you’re managing a tight budget, it is incredibly tempting to just go with the shop that provides the lowest initial bid. However, in the world of political printing, a lower price often comes with a hidden cost in terms of reliability and speed. If a sign is five cents cheaper but arrives three days late, it’s actually much more expensive for the campaign. Saving a few dollars isn’t worth the risk of being invisible during a critical voting window.

The real value of a printing partnership is found in the “total cost of success,” which includes the peace of mind that the job will be done right. You want to pay for a team that knows your history, understands your branding, and is committed to your candidate’s victory. This relationship allows for a much more efficient workflow where errors are minimized and the quality remains high across every single piece. A trusted partner is an investment in the overall health and momentum of the race.

Ultimately, the goal is to build a foundation that allows the candidate to focus on the voters rather than the logistics of the signs. By choosing a printer based on capacity, certification, and reliability, you’re setting the stage for a much smoother and more effective campaign. A few extra cents per sign is a small price to pay for the confidence that your message will be on the street when it matters most. Success is built on the quality of the people you choose to have in your corner.

Photo: bearfotos via Freepik.


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The post Beyond the Lowest Bid: Identifying a Printer That Can Scale with Your Campaign appeared first on DCReport.org.

Four astronauts are now inexorably bound for the Moon

The Orion spacecraft successfully fired its main engine for 5 minutes and 50 seconds on Thursday, sending four astronauts on a free-return trajectory around the Moon. For NASA and the Artemis II crew members, this marked a point of no return for more than a week.

About three-quarters of the American population has not witnessed humans leaving low-Earth orbit in their lifetimes. The last time this occurred was 1972, with the final Apollo Moon mission.

The “translunar injection” burn of Orion’s main engine occurred about one day after the successful launch of the mission on NASA’s Space Launch System rocket from Kennedy Space Center on Wednesday. This burn was the last major firing of Orion’s main engine and sets the crew on a course to fly around the Moon on Monday, slingshot back toward Earth under lunar gravity, and splash down in the Pacific Ocean on Friday, April 10.

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How can we see what is invisible? How can we see what is invisible?


Showers and Thunderstorms for the East; Cooler Temperatures Return Sunday into Early Week