Rocket Lab’s anticipated debut of its medium-lift Neutron rocket may end up slipping beyond this year and into 2027.
In a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SES) ahead of is second quarter 2026 earnings call with investors on Tuesday, the company noted that it’s working through various qualification testing and made “significant milestones across the Neutron program.”
“Production of the Stage 1 tank is currently aligned with the target delivery of Neutron to the launch pad in Q4 2026,” the company wrote in its filing. “While the window for an end-of-year launch date is narrowing, we are balancing the schedule of the first launch with entering Neutron into service as a system ready for full-scale production and high-cadence launch beyond flight one.
“Exact launch timing will also depend on the outcome of first stage qualification and other critical tests occurring later in 2026.”
Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket, a 43-meter-tall (141 ft.), liquid methane-fueled launch vehicle, was announced back in March 2021 and has been in development ever since. It’s designed with a reusable first stage booster that features actuating payload fairing halves that remain fixed to the booster after the second stage and payload are released.
Back on Jan. 21, the company’s first stage fuel tank ruptured unexpectedly during a water loading test called a “hydrostatic pressure trial.” That setback pushed the planned debut from the middle of the year to late 2026.
During Monday’s earnings call, Rocket Lab founder and CEO Peter Beck said the ability to reuse its rockets will be the x-factor that can unlock good launch cadence.
“As we’re working forward with the vehicle right now, and the way we’re thinking about things, it’s not just to get to the pad quickly for flight one. Of course we all want that and no one more than I, but it’s really about how do we get to flight ten in the shortest time possible,” Beck said.
“So for us, it’s all about reusability. And we’re constantly trading the timelines and the qualification criteria for the various systems and subsystems to get to the pad for flight one, but also making sure that when it comes to flight ten, that we don’t have to go back and re-qualify things,” he added. “So there’s a constant assessment along that way.”
Asked about the milestone with the highest risk on the road to Neutron’s debut, Beck said it would be the integrated static fire testing that will happen at the launch pad in Virginia.
“The stage testing is always the thing that gets your adrenaline running because you have fully fueled vehicles on the pad and you’re igniting the engines for the first time. And I think you can also see for another space company that when it doesn’t go well, it really doesn’t go well,” Beck said, making a nod to the explosion of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket during a static fire test on May 28 prior to its fourth planned launch.
The future for Neutron launches includes the defense sector, where Rocket Lab holds a $397 million contract for building and launching satellites for the U.S. Space Force’s (USSF) Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator (SB-AMTI) program. Launch dates for this program haven’t been announced.
Neutron will also be able to compete for task orders as part of the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1 procurement contract, managed by the USSF’s Space Systems Command.
On the commercial side of the ledger, Rocket Lab also has more than half a dozen customers lined up for flights on the rocket. The newest of those is Kepler Communications, based in Toronto, Canada.
Neutron has been selected for a dedicated launch by @KeplerComms as part of their largest network expansion yet – the first time Kepler has booked an entire rocket for constellation deployment rather than fly rideshare.
Press release: https://t.co/vQJAttEbTe pic.twitter.com/gPVrPVcAdh
— Rocket Lab (@RocketLab) August 10, 2026
Ahead of its second quarter 2026 earnings call with investors, Rocket Lab unveiled that it will fly a dedicated mission for Kepler no earlier than 2028 to “deploy multiple satellites to low Earth orbit, expanding Kepler’s constellation with additional optical connectivity, on-orbit compute, and hosted payload capacity. The satellites will support a range of commercial and government missions.”
The previous 33 satellites launched for Kepler were on rideshare missions across a series of rockets beginning in 2018. Those included China’s Long March 11, India’s PSLV-CA, Russia’s Soyuz-2.1a, and SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
The most recent batch flew as part of SpaceX’s Twilight rideshare mission in January 2026. The promised NET 2028 launch for Kepler marks its first dedicated flight, though the specific number of satellites that will fly onboard hasn’t been disclosed.
“Securing our first dedicated launch reflects the next stage of growth for Kepler,” said Beau Jarvis, Chief Revenue Officer of Kepler, in a statement. “As we continue expanding our constellation to keep pace with growing customer demand, multiple launches in 2028 will increase capacity, strengthen resilience, and enable new services for customers around the world. Rocket Lab is an outstanding partner for this important milestone.”
During the earnings call, Beck called this launch contract “another strong signal of the expectation for Neutron to become the industry’s alternate ride to space for medium-lift missions,” alongside the Falcon 9 rocket.
“We have a proven track record with Electron and HASTE (Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron) and customers know we develop and scale reliable launch vehicles, which is why they’re coming to us now and locking in Neutron slots early,” Beck told investors. “Neutron is going to help unblock the industry’s bottleneck, giving operators a reliable capacity that they need for years to come.”
Links for you. Science:
Would You Eat This Cretaceous Turducken?
Crab Odyssey: Crustacean Wandered the Seas in a Bottle for Months, Scientists Find
Scientists Designed a Virtual Alien Lifeform to Hunt for Extraterrestrials
We asked a first grader to interview his hero: A bird scientist
Disparities in success rates at NIH: inequality across institutes, race, and more
Other:
Socialists Are Winning Because They Listen to People (excellent)
Greenland issues ‘strong warning’ as Trump-linked oil firm prepares to drill. Island’s government says no approval given after Greenland Energy brings kit ashore for exploratory drilling
Why Markey and Pressley’s free transit plan is going nowhere (I find that free transit is typically proposed by people who don’t use it, whereas increasing transit frequency–which is desperately needed, especially with buses–is favored by people who actually use it)
The SCREEN Act is a Christian Nationalist Nightmare
What Are You Banning When You Ban Influencers?
What this country needs is law and order, starting with elites
New York’s Use Of AI For Family Policing Summarizes The Last 30 Years Of City Politics
A Truce Is Still Possible. Factionalists contemplating “war” need to get a grip.
The Mystery Of Google’s Fixation On “The Transwoman In The WNBA”
Mamdani launches emergency grants for home-based childcare providers
Todd Blanche Wants to Finish What Dobbs Started
Software Giant SAP Stops Most Travel and Hiring Because of AI’s Soaring Cost
Trump’s Deregulation of Head Start Would Lead to Bigger Class Sizes, Lower Quality
Max Miller tests GOP tolerance of terrible men
The Summer A.I. Turned Pretty
GOP voters reluctant to abandon Rep. Max Miller over abuse allegations
Why a Flock Worker Quit: ‘They Lied’
I never thought the “We will target your group for removal, specifically” party would tagret my group for removal
Trump’s Reflecting Pool Fiasco Is About to Get Even Worse for Him
Heritage Foundation Staffer Accused of Bringing Ammo and Drugs Into Senate
Hang Elon Musk Around Susan Collins’s Neck. The billionaire wants to invest in the Maine incumbent’s Senate campaign. Democrats should be eager to drag her for the toxic association.
The Chilling Trump Order Threatening All Americans
And “Russell Vought and His Theocrats” is the worst band name EVAR. July’s U.S. jobs numbers dropped last week, and they are awful for some people (boldface mine):
Women accounted for 100 percent of the decline in the labor force in July, according to a National Women’s Law Center analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s latest dismal jobs report.
Overall, the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July: Women lost 32,000 jobs, while men gained 9,000. Many of the jobs lost were in local government and leisure and hospitality—real jobs that real women, who are already dealing with slowed wages and rising inflation, work.
Meanwhile, a whopping 165,000 women exited the work force last month, meaning they were neither working nor looking for a new job. The number of men in the labor force remained steady…
In fact, more than double the number of women have left the labor force than men since the start of the year. A total of 845,000 women have left the workforce since January, while 406,000 men have left.
It’s hard not to see these startling statistics as part of the Trump administration’s broader campaign to undermine women’s rights and autonomy.
Fascists have always viewed women as secondary to men, especially when you add in the supposed need to strengthen the Volk restore fertility rates. Women losing jobs, especially Black and brown women, is not a bug for these assholes, but a feature.
The problem, over the long term, for conservatives is that the U.S. economy is structured such that we need women working: employers need the employees (especially with the crackdown on immigration), and households need the income. The last bit is critical electorally–many people have bills to pay and their household can’t afford to lose a substantial chunk of income.
Unfortunately, over the short term, life is going to suck for those women who voted for and against the fascists. The latter don’t deserve this crap.
Have you contemplated your home star recently?
I am automating investigative journalism at Effort.News
We’re breaking five stories today based on verifiable financial data which everyone missed for years.
Here is the entire thread, which also describes the five stories.
The post Brian Chau at work appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
The Trump administration has been busy scrubbing from public sites the identities and accomplishments of Black, Brown, Asian, indigenous, and female Americans while whitewashing our history of enslavement.
That makes it surprising that a new exhibit in our nation’s capital honors a woman who was crucial to the 1963 Civil Rights demonstration in Washington, where the reverend Martin Luther King, standing in front of the Lincoln Memorial, delivered his stirring “I have a dream” speech.
The woman being honored is Dorothy Height.
Height sat close to Dr. King during that peaceful protest 63 years ago. However, she did not speak. Indeed, only men spoke that day.
How long will this exhibit honoring a Black woman survive? Will it remain up through the end of the year, as announced on Aug. 10 by the Smithsonian American Women’s History Museum?
Height’s significance within the male-dominated civil rights movement was so crucial that she became known among supporters as the “godmother” of the movement.
That Height sat silently illuminates a long-running conflict within the Civil Rights movement that was apparent in a 19th Century dispute between two famous Rochesterians, the suffrage leader Susan B. Anthony and the abolitionist leader Frederick Douglass.
In 1869, Douglass supported the proposed 15th Amendment, which extended voting rights to Black men. Anthony (and her colleague Elizabeth Cady Stanton) opposed the amendment as written because it excluded women.
Like the little-known Bayard Rustin, Height was one of the handful of march organizers. There was palpable fear back then that the event would turn into a bloody mess because of threats of violence from segregationists, who operated openly and with the support of some of the most powerful senators and representatives.
But the protest came off pretty much without a hitch because of the diligence of Height, Rustin, and a few others. (Rustin’s central role was kept largely in the closet because he was gay.)
We’ll let you know if the exhibit gets taken down early. If you are in or visit Washington, it would be smart to see it, especially if you bring children and young adults along.
We hope DCReport readers and those who watch our YouTube videos will alert us if they become aware of efforts to close or change this worthwhile exhibit about an unsung hero of American hopes and dreams.
“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.
The post Will Trump Allow This? appeared first on DCReport.org.
Remember Manager Readmes? The idea was that a manager would take the time to write up their leadership style, what they valued, and their principles. A fad that started in 2017, hit its peak in 2018, and then faded.1
I wrote one in March 2018 and enjoyed the process, but while I published mine, I didn’t think the point was to share; the point was to write it.
I was at Slack when the Manager Readme craze hit. Managers on my team followed my lead and wrote their own and then proceeded to send their Readmes to their team. I don’t know how they framed this document when they sent it, but I know how it was received: “What the hell am I supposed to do with this?”
For my (now dated) Readme, the task was: reflect on what’s important to me as a leader. The task of getting that out of my head and onto the page had the same result as all writing for me; it forced me to think through the subject.
The employees who received the Readmes from their manager were rightly furious. The document can read like a manifesto. Good leaders don’t lead by mandate; they lead by example. You see — with your eyeballs — how your leaders act, and you decide — with your brain — does this work for me? Or not? And why?
I spent random parts of the month cleaning up the perspective that a Manager Readme wasn’t a cheat sheet for your manager; it was their reflection on what was important to them, as a manager.
Habits are a part of those Readmes. Ways that I’ve learned to act. Values are there, too, but there is a final section that I called Nuance and Errata. For all the buzz generated by Readmes, this section was the only one where I received substantive feedback. Shortly after publication, a General Counsel from a prior company mailed me and quoted the piece:
I’m an introvert; more than eight people and I go strangely quiet. Don’t confuse quiet with lack of engagement.
He added, “Now I understand you.”
I have tics. Many of them are irrational and deeply unfair to those around me.
I have many tics. You’ve been reading them throughout this piece. If you click on the links, you’ll realize you’ve been reading about them for years.
Like I said, irrational and unfair. Embarrassing. Mostly not your problem.
Pick the human you worked with, or for whom you admired the most. For each of the attributes that you admire, there is an equal amount of strange to bizarre to broken behavior, habits, and tics that you may never have seen, but are certainly there.
The competent leaders are aware of these behaviors, their consequences, and the carefully constructed compensation techniques that lessen their impact on themselves and the humans.
Thinking takes practice.
GitHub Models is temporarily unavailable as part of a scheduled retirement brownout.
That message is already stale, because the retirement has been completed.
GitHub Models was an odd-shaped duck. GitHub provided a model playground tool and a unified API across a bunch of different LLM providers, with the biggest benefit being that code running in GitHub Actions could use the GitHub API key already present in that environment to execute prompts.
This made it easy to build things that fit GitHub Next's Continuous AI concept.
GitHub didn't share the reason behind the shutdown, but my bet is that it fits the pattern where coding agent patterns made it prohibitively expensive to offer free or subsidized tokens.
My workflow uses an LLM call to create folder summaries for the README, using this code here. I swapped GitHub Models out for an OpenAI API key with a monthly spending limit, and I'm now generating my summaries using GPT-5.6 Luna.
Tags: github, ai, github-actions, generative-ai, llms, llm-pricing
Research: SQLite compressed text-history prototypes
I'm perennially interested in options for storing revision histories in relational databases. While out on a dog walk I had a new idea: how about taking the full text of every prior version in a big JSON array of strings and then applying zlib or zstd compression to the whole thing? Surely that would compress really well due to all of the repeated strings.
The new GPT‑Live voice mode in the ChatGPT iPhone app has got really good, so I discussed the prototype with that. You still can't share URLs to voice conversations, but here's what I said copied from the transcript as a proper stream of consciousness:
I have an interesting idea for a scheme for saving all previous versions of a piece of text that's constantly edited in a SQLite database um column in as efficient a way as possible. Okay, so I built these kinds of systems in the past, and it's always difficult to come up with a efficient way to do this. Like the easiest way is you have a row for every previous copy of the previous previous value of the string. But if it's a long document Like20 kilobytes of data, that means that every single edit adds another 20 kilobytes of data to the database, right. So, what I've now thinking, is um compression would work really well, right? If you Bundle all of those different um Every every version of this document all the way back to the start if you were to apply a good compression algorithm to them that should basically wipe out huge amounts of the redund- the um redundant text, right Um, so what I'd thinking is how about really, really simple mechanism There is a history column on the single on this uh uh table and it's a blob, it's a BLOB so it stores binary data and then you just stick in there a Zlib or maybe even ZSTD um compressed JSON text array of all of the previous documents, and so you probably have two columns, right? You'd have a column that's this magic JSON array of text You have a second column which is a JSON array of timestamps and that doesn't need to be compressed at all, right? A timestamp can just be a uh- it's an array of integers, right? Unix integers But that's the whole scheme.
Then I stopped voice mode and typed the following text prompt to GPT-5.6 Sol Pro:
Use Python and Build experimental prototypes around this idea
It churned away for 38 minutes and delivered this answer plus the files you see in this folder.
The approach works really well! 1,000 simulated revisions to a document resulted in 20.4 MB of raw revision text that compressed to 80.3 KB as Zstandard-compressed JSON array.
To avoid the overhead of decompressing and recompressing the entire array on every edit Sol suggested breaking the history up into multiple rows, with each one containing a maximum of either 128 revisions or 3MB of uncompressed JSON.
Tags: compression, sqlite, speech-to-text
We have found the world’s best chocolate.
It’s made in a top-secret laboratory in Southern California and is the creation of Xbox inventor Seamus Blackley and his inventing partner Asher Zelig Sefami.…
Link to primer here.
Transcript
If you want to understand how we went so far down the road towards oligarchy, Malta is a good place to look.
Hi, Paul Krugman, doing a video today.
Yesterday, my weekly primer was another episode in the series about the rise of oligarchy and the policies that have led it to where it is. And this time, I focused on the role of a huge shift in taxation that has taken place over the past several decades, away from taxing capital and towards taxing labor. Half of that is a very large decline in the effective rate at which profits are taxed.
Now that decline has taken place partly via a reduction in headline tax rates, but to a large extent, from expanding loopholes — of which one of the most important is the ability of corporations to use accounting tricks to shift their reported profits into low tax jurisdictions, which is where Malta comes in.
On paper, according to the official numbers, Malta plays a remarkable role in the world economy.
It’s a huge investment destination: There are only a bit over 500,000 people on the island. But it has attracted more than $500 billion in foreign direct investment. At the same time, Maltese companies have invested about the same amount overseas. That’s about a million dollars per man, woman, and child in each direction.
Of course, it’s all fake. What we’re actually seeing is a proliferation of shell companies that are used by companies elsewhere as ways to launder, transfer their profits so that they pop up in Malta, which has a basically zero tax rate on corporate profits.
This is a combination of tax avoidance and tax evasion. Avoidance is when it’slegal, although it probably shouldn’t be. Evasion is when it isn’t. There’s some of both going on in Malta. There’s quitea lot of actual money laundering and sheer criminal activity. Famously, an investigative journalist from the island who looked into it was blown up by a car bomb. But mostly it is probably, at least marginally, within the, or arguably within the outer limits of the law.
So Crocs has a two-person office in Malta. And according to its books, basically all of its global profits come from that two-person operation in Malta. The New York Times had a very good report about all of this, which somehow I had not seen before writing the primer.
What is going on here? Well, the mechanics are quite simple. The real question is why this is allowed to persist. Tax avoidance or evasion, but profit shifting to avoid taxation, is a big issue. Estimates for the United States are that we lose probably north of $100 billion a year to companies finding ways to make their profits appear someplace else. If you want a sense of perspective, that’s roughly the entire budget of the food stamp program. It’s roughly the entire amount that Medicaid spends on health care for children.
These are programs that the administration falsely insists are full of fraud, but international profit shifting is fundamentally tax fraud, although it may be legal.
Now, Malta is a sovereign nation, but there really wouldn’t be any problem if the major democratic nations said this must stop. Malta is in fact part of the European Union. The European Union could clearly stop it. It has not.
Now, Europe is not totally hopeless. They actually have to some extent reined in the tax shelter status of Ireland, although it’s still there, but it’s weaker than it was. They have made moves toward a general international agreement that says that corporate tax rates must not be below 15% anywhere. It’s not really in effect, but they’ve moved in that direction. But Europe is characteristically weak in implementation. And let’s face it, there’s a fair bit of corruption there as well.
The United States, well, the United States was part of the project to limit at least extreme tax havens. To impose that minimum 15% corporate tax rate. But Donald Trump has withdrawn from the agreement.
It’s very clear that the United States government, as currently constituted, is not interested in cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion. In fact, the President of the United States and his lackeys are very much clearly on the side of tax cheats.
Now, I don’t want to say that Malta is the whole story. It’s obviously just a piece, although it is pretty extraordinary. We’re taking about basically a million dollars of corporate profits being laundered for each inhabitant of this tiny island. But it’s an indication.
It’s also an indication of what I’ve been calling the downward spiral of oligarchy. If we ask why is this outrage, this fundamental tax cheating permitted to continue, the answer is very clearly, it is the power of people with money who want to be able to avoid taxes. And their ability to avoid taxes leads them having even more money,which reinforces that power.
So it’s going to take a really big effort to, you know, we really need to reverse this. And we need to do it, you know, not slowly because this is a cumulativeprocess. We are on a downward spiral here. Malta is slightly exotic, it’s a funny story, but it’s actually very much indicative of what’s going wrong for the United States. And a reminder that although we are definitely the bad guys here, theEuropeans aren’t such great guys either.
But maybe they can be shamed. And maybe if we have a regime change here in the United States, we can finally be part of the effort.
Have a great day.
For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube.
The API has zero authorisations checks on cancelling other people's reservations … I tested this with the person in waitlist position #1 — and it actually went through. So you've moved from #4 to #3 already.
— OpenClaw, hacking an Australian gym-booking website
Tags: ai-ethics, generative-ai, openclaw, ai, ai-security-research, llms
Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 were first released on June 9, 2026. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to both models to comply with U.S. Department of Commerce export controls; the Department lifted those controls on June 30, 2026, and Anthropic restored access on July 1, 2026 (Anthropic's statement: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access). These events are after Claude's training-data cutoff, so Claude knows about them only from this notice. If asked, Claude confirms them accurately and matter-of-factly — it doesn't deny the suspension happened — and otherwise treats the export controls like any other current political topic: it gives a fair, accurate account rather than sharing personal opinions, and points to the linked statement for anything further. Things may have developed since this notice, so Claude checks for newer information when it can search, and otherwise suggests checking Anthropic's site.
— Claude Opus 5 system prompt, ensuring Claude doesn't provide incorrect answers about the export controls situation
Tags: system-prompts, anthropic, claude, generative-ai, ai, llms, claude-mythos-fable
Does the White House Report Science: A New Golden Age Signal Twilight for Us Global Scientific Leadership?A new White House report argues that eight decades of science policy that helped make the United States the world’s scientific leader is too bureaucratic, too focused on institutions rather than individual researchers, and too slow to translate discoveries into economic and technological advantages.
Supporters see it as a needed modernization of American science policy. Others argue that it places insufficient emphasis on the universities, laboratories and federal agencies that enable and sustain U.S. scientific leadership.
Research affects health, prosperity, quality of life and national security. The technologies that shape modern life, from GPS navigation and weather forecasting to cancer therapies and cellular communications, all rely on scientific discovery.
The debate raises a broader question: What created American scientific leadership in the first place, and what will be required to sustain it?
During World War II, Vannevar Bush, who coordinated much of the nation’s wartime research effort, led federal programs that created new technologies such as radar and mass-produced penicillin. In 1944, President Franklin Roosevelt asked Bush to develop a blueprint for how science could contribute to national health, economic prosperity and job creation after the war.
Bush’s 1945 report, Science: The Endless Frontier, established a framework in which government, universities and industry played complementary roles. The federal government would invest in research and scientific talent. Universities would perform research while educating future scientists and engineers. Industry would transform discoveries into products and services.
The model worked.
The postwar research system laid the foundation for innovations ranging from microelectronics and biotechnology to the internet. Its success can be measured not only in discoveries but also in outcomes: scientific leadership, a highly skilled workforce, innovation clusters of new firms centered on universities that discover new knowledge via research, jobs and long-term economic growth.
The United States did not become a scientific superpower by chance. It built institutions that repeatedly generated both new knowledge and new talent.
The Trump administration’s July 2026 report, Science: A New Golden Age, argues that American science policy requires significant reform.
Having spent much of my career at the intersection of scientific research, research management and science policy, I believe that the report raises several important issues that deserve attention. Administrative burden on researchers is real. Technology transfer could be improved. Artificial intelligence is transforming research and innovation. China’s rise as a scientific and technological competitor presents a genuine strategic challenge.
At the same time, the report arrives after a series of Trump administration policy actions that have already begun reshaping universities, federal agencies and federal research funding. The debate is therefore not simply about a future vision. It is also about how current policy changes may reshape the American research enterprise for decades to come.
The report places heavy emphasis on innovation, commercialization and technology deployment. What receives less attention is how the capacity for future innovation is created and sustained.
Long-term innovation emerges not from isolated projects but from ecosystems in which universities, government laboratories, federal agencies and industry play distinct but mutually reinforcing roles. Many of today’s technologies exist because these institutions invested for decades in ideas that initially had no obvious commercial value.
Moreover, universities and federal agencies do far more than conduct research.
Universities educate the next generation of scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs. They maintain specialized infrastructure, generate new knowledge and support scientific communities that accelerate discovery. Their unique contribution is that they simultaneously create knowledge and develop the workforce that puts knowledge to use.
Federal mission agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, National Institute of Standards and Technology, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Geological Survey, play different but equally important roles. They conduct and support science that informs decisions affecting public health, environmental protection, energy security, economic development and public safety. Many of these activities generate public benefits that market forces alone are unlikely to adequately provide.
Scientific leadership depends on people, institutions, infrastructure and knowledge. These assets accumulate slowly over decades but can be weakened surprisingly quickly.
The current debate is not merely theoretical. Funding reductions, workforce losses and disruptions affecting universities and federal agencies are already reshaping parts of the American research enterprise.
Advocates of these changes argue that resources should be redirected toward faster innovation and greater efficiency. Critics worry that weakening institutions responsible for discovery, workforce development and mission-oriented science will reduce the nation’s long-term capacity to innovate.
Innovation is essential, but it ultimately depends on a continuing supply of new ideas, talented people and organizations capable of sustaining long-term research. Discovery and innovation are not competing priorities. They depend on each other.
Perhaps the strongest endorsement of the postwar American model is the adoption of its core features by international competitors.
China has invested heavily in research universities, scientific workforce development, research infrastructure and technology clusters that connect universities, government laboratories and industry. In several areas of science and technology, China is now rivaling or surpassing the United States.
Scientific competition increasingly involves competition among research ecosystems rather than competition over individual technologies.
A nation that underinvests in scientific capacity while its competitors expand theirs risks losing advantages that took generations to build.
A true golden age of American science would not simply preserve the status quo. Administrative burden could be reduced. Technology transfer can be improved. New institutional models deserve experimentation.
If the goal is to sustain U.S. scientific leadership, though, efforts to modernize the research system should strengthen rather than weaken the institutions that produced that leadership. The White House report does not establish federal policy on its own, but it signals how the administration views the relative importance of innovation, technology deployment, universities, federal agencies and industry within the research ecosystem.
Universities remain essential for discovery, workforce development and scientific infrastructure. Federal agencies continue to generate science that directly benefits society through better public decisions. Industry remains indispensable for transforming discoveries into products and services. The challenge is not choosing among these institutions, but ensuring that they remain mutually reinforcing parts of a larger innovation ecosystem.
A genuine new golden age will require innovation, while also sustaining the institutions that generate innovation in the first place.
This article was originally published by The Conversation on August 7, 2026.
“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.
The post White House Plan for a ‘Golden Age’ of Science Ignores the Structures That Made the US a Scientific Superpower appeared first on DCReport.org.
1. Tax land more heavily than structures.
3. Francesco Cabella conversation with (an older) Victor Niederhoffer.
4. New homes in Tatu City, Kenya.
5. Bill Goichberg, RIP (NYT). America’s greatest chess organizer, he was always very nice and encouraging to me.
7. Data on literacy and reading.
The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
It seems clear most people using the word don’t really want that. In interviews when details are drawn out of candidates linked with the word, what they want is not Socialism.
Promoting Socialism or Democratic Socialists is mostly a marketing mistake because it’s a word so poorly defined it means almost exact opposite things to different people. To some it means an economy and politics that is more responsive to people, that’s more focused on delivering good results for them above all, above billionaires and those with powerful connections. To others, who’ve been scared by claims that those using the word want the worst, it means a loss of rights as it was in the U.S.S.R., and long bread lines to get basics. How are you going to sell anyone who isn’t already a fan with a word that stretches that far?
The core thing driving it is the same issue behind so many problems. You let things fester and be bad for a long time and people rebel. People felt like our economics and whole system leaned against regular people, and the existing leadership hadn’t really done anything, and they get desperate and vote for someone like Trump. When more women started coming forward to out men who had assaulted or harassed them, some of the cases were serious crimes that needed long prison sentences. But some of the minor cases, that just needed a public apology, instead ended whole careers. Why are we bad at making the punishment fit the crime? Because we let it fester too long and didn’t deal with it correctly at the time. Sometimes poor and minority neighborhoods erupt in violence because bad policing techniques made life too miserable for too long. Yeah, you make people desperate, they’ll do desperate things. People who still feel frustrated with the economy and politics and don’t like Trump will look for some other solution. Maybe Socialism sounds to them like something to try. Don’t be surprised when frustrated people take surprising turns.
But there is a smart aspect to it too, and it’s just that. People looking for substantial change might hear in these Democratic Socialists candidates who are at least aiming at the right goal, big change that shifts focus off how much the highest can earn and puts it on how well the average people can do. Hey, the regular Democrats are evidently not inspiring great confidence in such change so don’t blame people when they latch onto someone else who does inspire that hope. The Social Democrats, and the few more radical real Socialists, are stirring the pot. A pot that needs stirring because it’s hardened into something that’s not delivering what people need to believe will come out of it.
Socialism can be, and often is, just as corrupt, just as oppressive, with just as much wealth disparity as any other system. It’s not about the system. It’s about who it’s for. Socialism is no more an answer than thinking an orange band-aid is going to work better than a pink one to fix a gaping wound.
Hey, Democratic leaders! This is your voters shouting in your ears that they need you to do things that inspire belief that you’re going to deliver that kind of change. Do that, and worries about infighting go away. Do that, and fears of scaring off swing voters goes away. Do that, and people will be less frustrated and vote for you. But all of that depends on that key word, “do”. There hasn’t been enough of that. To the Democratic establishment who are worried about this problem, the people who use the “S” word are not the problem. Your ineffectiveness to date is. Solve your own problem and this side issue goes away. Solve that problem. Your problem. We would really, really like you to.
What is democratic socialism?
Democratic socialism is a political philosophy that generally supports greater government involvement in the economy and expanded social programs while operating within a democratic system. Different politicians and organizations define the term differently, contributing to public confusion.
Why is the word “socialism” politically controversial?
The term carries very different meanings for different people. Some associate it with policies aimed at reducing inequality and expanding public services, while others connect it with authoritarian governments, economic failures, or restrictions on individual freedoms.
Why are some voters supporting Democratic Socialist candidates?
The article argues that many voters are motivated less by ideology than by frustration with economic inequality, rising living costs, and a belief that traditional political leaders have not delivered meaningful change.
What is the article’s main argument?
The opinion piece contends that the popularity of Democratic Socialist candidates is a symptom of voter dissatisfaction rather than an endorsement of socialism itself. It argues that Democratic leaders could reduce internal divisions by addressing the concerns driving voters to seek alternatives.
Is the article arguing that socialism is the solution?
No. The article argues that no economic system is inherently free from corruption or inequality. Instead, it suggests that leadership, accountability, and policies that improve people’s lives matter more than political labels.
“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.
The post Democratic Socialism: Bad Marketing, Understandable Mistake appeared first on DCReport.org.
Update Aug. 10, 3:46 p.m. EDT (1946 UTC): Added updated forecast from the 45th Weather Squadron.
SpaceX was set to kick off the work week with a Falcon 9 flight from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to deliver another batch of its Starlink V2 Mini Optimized satellites to low Earth orbit. However, the mission was scrubbed hours before is scheduled liftoff at 12:20:09 p.m. EDT (1620:09 UTC)
The Starlink 10-19 mission represents the 72nd flight of these broadband internet satellites this year. Following this launch, SpaceX will have flown 93 Falcon 9 rockets in 2026.
Liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 is scheduled for 10:26 a.m. EDT (1426 UTC) on Tuesday, Aug. 11. The rocket will fly on a northeasterly trajectory upon leaving the launch pad.
The 45th Weather Squadron forecast an 85 percent chance for favorable conditions near the opening of the window, which decreases to 75 percent as the window progresses.
“The Atlantic ridge axis will continue to slide southward over the Spaceport, shifting winds to a very light south-southwesterly flow,” launch weather officers wrote on Monday. “With the relatively dry air mass remaining in place, conditions will be similar to Monday, with the Cumulus Cloud Rule remaining the primary concern and an increasing probability of violation towards the end of the window.”
SpaceX will launch this mission using the Falcon 9 first stage booster with the tail number B1085. This will be its 18th flight with a flight history that includes NASA’s Crew-9, GPS III-7, and Fram2.
Nearly 8.5 minutes after liftoff, B1085 will target a landing on the droneship, A Shortfall of Gravitas, positioned in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South Carolina. If successful, this will be the 163rd landing on this vessel and the 647th Falcon booster landing.
Here's a review paper concentrating primarily on transplantation of organs (primarily kidneys) from deceased donors. It closes with a set of open research questions.
Organ Allocation and Transplantation by Itai Ashlagi and Alvin E. Roth, Annual Review of Economics, Volume 18, 2026, Vol. 18:613-645, August 2026, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-092425-123425
ABSTRACT: There is a large shortage of solid organs for transplants. This survey reviews the allocation of organs (particularly kidneys), with an emphasis on how deceased donor organs are obtained and allocated in the United States but with pointers to related issues involving living donors and transplantation around the world. We review some of the key institutional details and theoretical and empirical studies and describe some open questions that we hope will continue to attract attention from researchers interested in the economic and operational aspects of organ allocation.
1. INTRODUCTION
"Since at least the turn of the century, organ transplants have attracted considerable interest from economists. This is due both to their importance in modern medicine and to the fact that organ transplantation deals directly with some of the most basic questions of economics—namely, how to efficiently allocate scarce resources and how to make them less scarce. "
...
OPEN QUESTIONS AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
This section highlights research opportunities, some of which have been raised above.
1. Can we design allocation rules free of justified envy that place hard-to-match organs quickly enough so that they remain transplantable? A large number of recovered organs that might be transplanted are discarded. How can we increase utilization of marginal-quality organs and get them accepted after fewer offers and less CIT? How can we do this in a transparent and equitable way? How can we use the information about organ quality that arrives during the offering process? 91 How can we use offer refusals in real time? How should we design allocation rules in the presence of social learning and potential information cascades (Zhang 2010, Doval et al. 2024)? How should the variability in centers’ willingness to accept marginal organs be accounted for?
2. How to design priorities to balance efficiency and equity? How can priorities be designed to account for both longevity and urgency (Zhang et al. 2024, Lazenby et al. 2025)? How can priorities depend on patients’ treatments, taking into account that treatment decisions may in turn depend on priorities (Sweat 2023)? Countries use different priority rules, and there is a need to compare these to better understand trade-offs between these rules. The OPTN is seeking to implement continuous distribution allocation policies for hearts and kidneys, which will assign priority points smoothly across patient and match features. There are not yet studies that offer guidance to the resulting (in)efficiencies. 92
3. How should organ quality be measured and reported? The KDPI is currently used for both acceptance decisions by surgeons and prioritization in the allocation system. As supply changes over time, percentiles correspond to different qualities. For example, a KDPI of 85% (which is the threshold for requiring patient consent to receive an offer) in 2018 corresponds to (i.e., has the same underlying nonnormalized KDRI risk measure as) a KDPI of 75% in 2024 due to the recovery of more organs and therefore the higher availability of organs of marginal quality. Would the use of the nonnormalized KDRI substantially change behavior and outcomes?
4. How should surgeons’ and patients’ preferences be elicited? The OPTN allows transplant centers to express preferences via filters that screen organ offers. Despite this, many organs are still declined hundreds and even thousands of times (Agarwal et al. 2021, Guan et al. 2025). How can we better design these filters? Can we use AI to help recommend filters or to predict organ refusals in real time? More broadly, how should waitlist mechanisms be designed given incomplete patient and center preferences?
5. How should transplant centers’ performance be measured? Should transplant centers be incentivized to accept marginal organs, for example, for patients facing many years of dialysis? How should we regulate transplant centers? Are new incentive schemes useful in increasing utilization? For example, how will the acceptance rate and pre-transplant mortality rate metrics impact centers’ behavior? The CMS has also launched the Increasing Organ Transplant Access model, 93 using a long-term field experiment that offers monetary incentives based on the number of transplants performed, graft survival, and percentage of accepted offers (Chan & Roth 2026.) How should we incorporate the huge role that transplant centers play in acceptance/rejection decisions when studying organ allocation mechanisms (Chan & Roth 2024, Ashlagi et al. 2025a)? There is a need for research on designing centers’ performance measures that include outcomes for patients on the waiting list.
6. How should OPO performance be measured? OPOs vary in performance in terms of organ recovery and utilization, and incentive schemes remain controversial. How effective is the new tier system for monitoring OPOs based on donation and age-adjusted transplant rates? How should OPOs be incentivized to improve performance and transparency and to coordinate with transplant centers (see Chan & Roth 2024, Bae et al. 2026, Skowronski et al. 2026)?
7. What should we incorporate in transplant centers’ preferences? Most theoretical models treat patients as the decision makers who accept or reject organ offers. In practice, however, transplant centers exercise substantial discretion over acceptance decisions, listing practices, and setting filters. How do equilibrium outcomes reflect centers’ preferences? There is a need for empirical and theoretical studies of how centers’ characteristics and incentives shape outcomes.
8. Can we design simulation tools that account for equilibrium behavior? Simulations and historical data have been instrumental to the study and design of allocation policies. Existing simulations apply myopic acceptance models that are invariant to the allocation rules. There is a need for simple modern simulation tools that account for the incentives of patients and centers. 94 It would be interesting to create tools that generate not only better equilibrium predictions but also short-term equilibration effects. 95
9. What kinds of experiments should the OPTN conduct? The OPTN conducts very few controlled experiments, despite facing ongoing allocation policy decisions. While simulation tools are useful to inform policy, field experiments offer another approach. Experiments can generate useful data to evaluate different approaches (e.g., for expediting placements). The size and heterogeneity of the United States present opportunities to test different approaches; but they also raise questions about whether different approaches would work differently in different regions, and about how to overcome the reluctance to conduct experiments.
10. How can countries with low transplant rates be helped? Many countries have low living and/or deceased donation rates. Understanding the underlying barriers (organization structure, population preferences, etc.) would be fruitful in making progress toward increasing transplant rates (see, e.g., Okubo et al. 2026).
11. What can be done to increase incentives for organ donation in ways that attract social support? What accounts for the widespread reluctance to increase organ donation by compensating donors? How can economists better explain the value of incentives in addressing scarcity and gather persuasive evidence to engage in a productive dialog with those who fear that this will increase rather than decrease black markets, or who feel there are fundamental religious or ethical objections to compensating organ donation? [For some thoughts on this, readers are referred to Roth (2026b)].
Post-quantum cryptography is now one pip-install away for the entire Python ecosystem. With funding from the Sovereign Tech Agency, we implemented support for ML-KEM, the NIST-standard key-establishment primitive, and ML-DSA, the NIST-standard digital-signature primitive, in pyca/cryptography.
Remember, the reason to do this now is because there’s no emergency. And because you will make your systems crypto agile, which is always a good idea.
If we couldn’t make generalisations, we would be paralysed by the world’s complexity. Does that ever excuse stereotyping?
- by Tom Ralston
The oldest Buddhist temple in Europe is an architectural anomaly, built in memory of the Kalmyk regiment that fought Napoleon
- by Aeon Video
We study whether Democratic college professors make their students more liberal. We link voter data to salary records from 33 state flagships and show that faculty skew Democratic, especially in the humanities and social sciences. We then use student transcripts from one flagship to estimate causal effects. Students become more liberal during college regardless of major and sort toward ideologically similar instructors. Exploiting plausibly random variation in when instructors teach courses, we find no effect of faculty partisanship on student partisanship. Text analysis shows exposure to liberal topics reflects student demand rather than instructor supply, leaving little room for indoctrination.
That is from a new paper by Micah Baum, Joaquín Endara, and Annaliese Paulson. Via Jay Fan Bavel.
The post Do Faculty Affect Student Partisanship? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
At ESO’s Paranal Observatory in Chile, sunset does not mark the end of the day. Instead, it signals the beginning of a night under the stars. Today’s Picture of the Week comes from the Residencia, a home away from home for astronomers and other staff members working in shifts at the remote Atacama Desert site. In this photo, the last rays of sunlight slice through one of the Residencia’s corridors, casting lines of light and shadow across the concrete interior. At the far end of the ramp, a solitary figure stands in the light, framed between day and night.
ESO staff astronomer and photographer Luca Sbordone spotted this scene as he returned from dinner before heading to the telescopes for a night of observing. Knowing that the angle of the shadows would only last a few minutes, he ran to fetch his camera and recruited a colleague to add a human element to the image.
The Residencia is the part-time home for the people who keep Paranal running. Built partly below ground and designed to blend into the Atacama Desert, it offers shelter from one of the driest environments on Earth. Natural daylight reaches its central spaces through a 35-metre-wide dome and several skylights. Each day as daylight fades, a night of observations begins.
I am seeing so many doom prognostications, or least severe worries, due to the OAI/HuggingFace incident and related stories. But virtually all of these I find underargued to say the least.
So I have a simple request. If you are worried, and wish to persuade the doubters, try the methods of science. I would like to see the following:
1. Your outline of how, say two or three years from now, we might estimate the additional cybersecurity costs from the AI break-ins. I am convinced that number is not zero, but give me your method please. If it helps, here is an estimate of past cybersecurity costs, done by top economists.
2. Your current numerical estimate of what those costs might end up being, of course to be tested against what actually happens over time. Obviously, you can do this for a few different regulatory/safety scenarios. This is one simple way to prove yourself largely correct, albeit with a lag. (NB: you do not have to take this as a substitute for your preferred safety measurres. But please try to be specific in your predictions.)
3. A list of what stocks or other assets you have shorted, now. Obviously if your answer to #2 is sufficiently low, you could answer here zero, as I would do. I expect costs, but not so high that we cannot muddle through and have expected positive stock returns.
This would all help to make the discourse more scientific and less like an extended exercise in personal anxiety management.
If it is all so important, surely this exercise is worth the effort?
The post Act like it is science appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
As of June 2026, El Niño has officially arrived. This naturally recurring phenomenon is characterized by warmer-than-normal water temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific along with changes to atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Its regional effects range from desert floods to delayed monsoons to shifts in where tropical cyclones are more likely to form.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects the current El Niño to continue to strengthen through the end of 2026, with a 97 percent chance of lasting through early Northern Hemisphere spring 2027. Even during El Niño’s early stages, satellites have observed characteristic changes along the equatorial Pacific, such as warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and higher-than-normal sea surface height.
Among the first ecological downstream effects are changes to the marine food web. The maps above show chlorophyll-a concentrations—the pigment present in most phytoplankton—as observed by the OCI (Ocean Color Instrument) on NASA’s PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) satellite. In June 2025 (left), conditions were neutral, while in June 2026 (right), El Niño was strengthening.
The most noticeable difference appears in the central Pacific, around the equator due north of New Zealand: chlorophyll concentrations, an indication of phytoplankton abundance, are substantially lower in 2026. This change is expected, said Matthew Kehrli and Graham Trolley, oceanographers in the Ocean Ecology Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. That’s because during an El Niño, easterly equatorial trade winds weaken, the warm surface layer of the ocean extends deeper, and the upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water that typically fuels phytoplankton growth is suppressed.
As the El Niño progresses, the scientists anticipate the differences in the central Pacific will become more pronounced. “This may manifest as a greater difference in values across the current region, as a broadening region of reduced surface chlorophyll-a concentration, or both, depending on the behavior of the equatorial trade winds,” they said.
Reductions in phytoplankton have ripple effects through the marine food web, including in coastal regions. Less food is available for zooplankton, as well as for fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. Peru’s anchovy fisheries have seen profound declines in catch during past El Niños, driven similarly by warmer surface waters, reduced upwelling, and lower phytoplankton abundance. In 2026, Peru’s Ministry of Production repeatedly suspended the fishery to safeguard the country’s main fishing resource. Pelicans have been seen venturing into Peruvian ports and urban areas in search of food.
Although the disruptions to marine life can be severe, a post-El Niño “chlorophyll rebound,” with higher-than-normal concentrations in the equatorial Pacific, can occur. Research suggests that higher iron concentrations delivered in ocean currents, as well as dust arriving from drier land in parts of Central and South America, help fuel the resurgence—a rebound that doesn’t require a follow-on La Niña. La Niña, which often follows El Niño events, can also produce elevated chlorophyll concentrations. A strong La Niña in 1998–1999 set off a large phytoplankton bloom in the eastern Pacific and a dramatic increase in fish populations.
Scientists have new tools available for studying this sort of variability. The PACE mission launched in February 2024, making this the first complete El Niño event for which the satellite will gather global, near-daily hyperspectral measurements. “The scientific community will be able to observe the 2026 El Niño with data across more wavelengths of light than ever before,” Kehrli and Trolley said.
To better understand effects on life in the ocean, researchers hope to use PACE data to gauge the responses of specific phytoplankton communities to El Niño. And the possibilities extend beyond the marine realm, the scientists note. PACE’s sensors can measure plant pigment composition on land and clouds and aerosols in the atmosphere, all of which are influenced by El Niño.
NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using PACE data from the NASA Ocean Biology Distributed Active Archive Center OB.DAAC and processed by Matthew Kehrli. Story by Lindsey Doermann.
Stay up-to-date with the latest content from NASA as we explore the universe and discover more about our home planet.
Satellite observations of sea surface height indicated that the 2026 event continued to strengthen in early June.
Something is brewing in shallow waters offshore of Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia.
Seaweed composing the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt hit near-record levels in June 2026, with the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of…
The post El Niño Alters Marine Life in the Pacific appeared first on NASA Science.
Can you do me a favor and subscribe to our new TPM Youtube channel? It’s a way to keep up on a lot of good stuff our team is producing, podcasts, discussions of breaking news, etc. But even if you never look at it again just clicking and subscribing helps us build the channel. Just takes a second. Here’s the link.
The company that developed a spacecraft to boost the orbit of a NASA observatory says it is making progress in recovering from its own spacecraft’s problems.
The post Katalyst Space makes progress in restoring control of Swift servicing spacecraft appeared first on SpaceNews.
This was the eleventh week of videos from the 250 to 250 Project that we’re producing to honor the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
It was another week of favorite stories and favorite people narrating, but I guess I feel that way every week. A number of this week’s videos were suggestions from the narrators themselves, making them even more fun for us than usual.
Our hope was for the videos to emphasize the agency of Americans—mostly everyday Americans—to change the country. Each falls into a category that defines what it means to be an American, including community, democracy, innovation, mobility, civil rights, education, conservation, and creativity. Having narrators choose their own topics added different facets of those stories to the ones we had previously chosen.
You can follow the project at the sites listed below, or under “videos” at my own YouTube page: Heather Cox Richardson. Or just wait until I send out the week’s roundup.
Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads
Tom Vilsack is the former Secretary of Agriculture under the Obama and Biden administrations, the former governor of Iowa, and CEO of the World Food Prize Foundation. Vilsack is known for his significant contributions to global food challenge advocacy. Vilsack profiles Dr. Norman Borlaug, the Iowa-born scientist whose Green Revolution transformed global agriculture and saved more than a billion lives from famine.
is an award-winning journalist and citizen of Cherokee Nation. She is the host of the First America podcast. Nagle tells the story of the Cherokee Phoenix, the first Native-run newspaper in America, which fought for Cherokee land and sovereignty and still publishes today.
Professor Ted Widmer is a prominent American historian, award-winning historical author, and the former foreign policy speechwriter and senior advisor to President Bill Clinton. Widmer travels the history of Route 66, the iconic “Main Street of America” that carried Depression migrants, wartime troops, and postwar dreamers across the country.
Vernon Burton, acclaimed American historian, author, and Judge Matthew Perry Distinguished Professor Emeritus, is globally recognized for his pioneering work on the American South, legal history, race relations, digital humanities, and the American Civil War. Burton examines the Confederacy’s Cornerstone Speech, in which Alexander Stephens declared slavery and white supremacy its founding principle—a claim the Union defeated and answered with the Reconstruction Amendments.
Peabody Award-winning storyteller and journalist, Al Letson, is an acclaimed writer and media host best known for the nationally broadcast investigative journalism show Reveal and for writing the limited series Mister Terrific: Year One for DC Comics. Letson profiles Dwayne McDuffie, the trailblazing writer and artist who brought realistic Black representation to comic books and animation.
Digital historian Tyler McGraw is a writer for the Emerging Civil War community and host of the podcast The Unfiltered Historian. McGraw recounts how General U.S. Grant’s refusal to retreat at the 1864 Battle of the Wilderness marked the turning point that would wear the Confederacy down to surrender.
Lexy White is a social media producer, journalist and founder of Paddock Party LA, a social club dedicated to creating an inclusive community for female and queer Motorsport fans. White celebrates the Indianapolis 500, the storied race that fueled America’s car culture and became one of the nation’s greatest sporting traditions.
Maggie Bohara is a writer and activist known for being the co-founder and director of the We Are America March (WAAM), a nonpartisan, volunteer-powered, and millennial-led, grassroots movement that organizes 160-mile walks to advocate for democracy and civil rights. Bohara tells how Jacob Coxey’s 1894 march of unemployed workers to Washington foreshadowed the New Deal’s public works programs.
Dr. Kevin M. Kruse is a historian and Guggenheim Fellow whose work examines conflicts over race, rights, and religion. He is the author of White Flight and One Nation Under God, and co-editor of the New York Times bestseller Myth America. Kruse examines the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the crowning achievement of the civil rights era whose protections recent Supreme Court decisions have eroded.
Fran Drescher is an iconic comedic actress, New York Times bestselling author, producer, healthcare advocate, and union leader best known for creating and starring in the hit sitcom “The Nanny” and who served as the president of SAG-AFTRA during the historic 2023 actors’ strike. Drescher celebrates “I Love Lucy,” the groundbreaking 1951 sitcom whose innovations—and its star Lucille Ball—set the standard for television comedy.
Dr. Tom Nichols is a bestselling author, political commentator, five-time undefeated Jeopardy! champion, and Professor Emeritus of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College. Here, Nichols profiles President James A. Garfield, who defied his era to champion Black civil rights more forcefully than any president until President Lyndon Johnson.
Victoria A. Smalls is a Gullah native of South Carolina, award-winning Gullah Geechee cultural preservationist, artist and curator, specializing in Reconstruction Era history, and Founder/Principal Consultant of Smalls Cultural Resources. Here, she tells how Robert Smalls escaped slavery by commandeering a Confederate ship and rose to become a Union captain and U.S. congressman.
Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire is a lawmaker and attorney who is one of only three women in American history elected as both a U.S. Senator and a state governor. Hassan explains how the 1944 Bretton Woods conference in New Hampshire helped to create the modern global economic order.
Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads
At 4:00 this morning, just before they left for a five-week recess, Senate Republicans confirmed Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche to the position of Attorney General of the United States. This makes President Donald J. Trump’s personal criminal lawyer the top law enforcement officer of the country.
The attorney general is supposed to be the lawyer for the people of the United States.
Some Republicans, like 92-year-old Senate Judiciary Committee chair Chuck Grassley of Iowa, were enthusiastic about Blanche. “Mr. Blanche is a tough, fair prosecutor dedicated to the rule of law, and his leadership instills that same zeal throughout the entire Justice Department,” Grassley said.
Other Republicans were more skeptical but said if they didn’t confirm Blanche, Trump would choose someone worse. Perhaps in a permanent rather than an acting capacity, they said, he would be more likely to resist Trump’s pressure.
Republican senators played a very different role in the United States 52 years ago.
In late July 1974 the House Committee on the Judiciary had passed three articles of impeachment, charging the president with obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and contempt of Congress over his handling of the break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters at the Watergate complex in Washington, D.C.
The House would almost certainly send those articles of impeachment to the Senate, but what would happen there was not clear.
And then, on August 5, in response to a subpoena, the White House released a tape recorded on June 23, 1972, just six days after the Watergate break-in, that showed Nixon and his aide H.R. Haldeman plotting to invoke national security to protect the president.
Even Republican senators, who had not wanted to convict their president, knew the game was over. A delegation went to the White House to deliver the news to the president that he must resign or be impeached by the full House and convicted by the Senate.
On August 8, 1974, Richard Nixon spoke to the American people to tell them he was resigning the presidency of the United States.
“Throughout the long and difficult period of Watergate, I have felt it was my duty to persevere, to make every possible effort to complete the term of office to which you elected me,” he said. “In the past few days, however,” he continued, “it has become evident to me that I no longer have a strong enough political base in the Congress to justify continuing that effort….”
“From the discussions I have had with Congressional and other leaders, I have concluded that because of the Watergate matter, I might not have the support of the Congress that I would consider necessary to back the very difficult decisions and carry out the duties of this office in the way the interests of the Nation will require.”
“To leave office before my term is completed is abhorrent to every instinct in my body,” he said. “But as President, I must put the interests of America first. America needs a full-time President and a full-time Congress, particularly at this time with problems we face at home and abroad….
“Therefore, I shall resign the Presidency effective at noon tomorrow.”
—
Notes:
(Lord’s day). Up, and leaving my brother John to go somewhere else, I to church, and heard Mr. Mills (who is lately returned out of the country, and it seems was fetched in by many of the parishioners, with great state,) preach upon the authority of the ministers, upon these words, “We are therefore embassadors of Christ.” Wherein, among other high expressions, he said, that such a learned man used to say, that if a minister of the word and an angell should meet him together, he would salute the minister first; which methought was a little too high. This day I begun to make use of the silver pen (Mr. Coventry did give me) in writing of this sermon, taking only the heads of it in Latin, which I shall, I think, continue to do. So home and at my office reading my vowes, and so to Sir W. Batten to dinner, being invited and sent for, and being willing to hear how they left things at Portsmouth, which I found but ill enough, and are mightily for a Commissioner to be at seat there to keep the yard in order.
Thence in the afternoon with my Lady Batten, leading her through the streets by the hand to St. Dunstan’s Church, hard by us (where by Mrs. Russell’s means we were set well), and heard an excellent sermon of one Mr. Gifford, the parson there, upon “Remember Lot’s wife.” So from thence walked back to Mrs. Russell’s, and there drank and sat talking a great while. Among other things talked of young Dawes that married the great fortune, who it seems has a Baronet’s patent given him, and is now Sir Thos. Dawes, and a very fine bred man they say he is. Thence home, and my brother being abroad I walked to my uncle Wight’s and there staid, though with little pleasure, and supped, there being the husband of Mrs. Anne Wight, who it seems is lately married to one Mr. Bentley, a Norwich factor. Home, and staid up a good while examining Will in his Latin below, and my brother along with him in his Greeke, and so to prayers and to bed.
This afternoon I was amused at the tune set to the Psalm by the Clerke of the parish, and thought at first that he was out, but I find him to be a good songster, and the parish could sing it very well, and was a good tune. But I wonder that there should be a tune in the Psalms that I never heard of.
The modern-day gambling industry in the United States continues to grow at a very fast pace. Many state governments are looking into the possibility of reforming the gambling industry in order to meet the changing demands of consumers.
In light of the growing number of jurisdictions that are reviewing their gambling legislation, the need for regulated industries that incorporate online slots within their gambling licensing structure has become evident. Such an approach is a huge step forward for many states when it comes to regulating the digital entertainment industry in a manner that would benefit both the economy of states and their citizens.
Digital gaming has become one of the most popular forms of entertainment among millions of adult citizens all around the country. As opposed to viewing the online gaming market as something marginal, the governments have started reviewing the possibility of having a properly regulated market which will protect its consumers. Most states are researching best practices before making any changes to their legislation.
The only legal form of betting was through land casinos or lottery products offered by state governments for decades. All this changed after the lifting of the ban by the Federal Government on sports betting. The states became able to choose how to regulate the online gaming industry.
Some of the states went further and ventured into regulating their own online casino industries, showing that internet-based games can be tightly regulated while raising revenue through taxes. They have shown what the other states can learn when trying to develop such laws.
They have set up a good example that the other states are learning from. States examining regulated gambling markets are examining how these regulated markets decrease dependency on offshore companies and generate funds for the services of the state.
Through licensing of the gambling industry, new forms of entertainment can be brought in while regulating the activities of the operators of such games. It will also make people confident of using their services.
Several states continue to review legislation that would expand existing gaming laws or establish new regulatory frameworks. While proposals differ, many include strong licensing standards, technical testing requirements, and ongoing regulatory supervision.
Digital gaming expansion is not merely about approving sites but also entails the development of a comprehensive licensing regime for the market which includes the determination of operators, approved games and how such products should be controlled.
Among other categories of online gaming, online slot games are usually very strictly regulated since they depend solely on licensed software and systems used. All aspects of the platform must comply with the set standards by the relevant authority.
Prior to the launch of any game, independent testing agencies carry out checks to verify the random number generator in order to guarantee fair results and unpredictability of game results. Regulators demand that operators disclose return-to-player percentages of games and comply with further technical evaluations.
This ensures transparency of the gaming process as well as maintaining confidence in the regulated market. Compliance checks guarantee that operators are still complying with licensing requirements even after they have been licensed.
License standards may go beyond the games themselves. Among other things, regulators check cybersecurity, financial statements, customer identification measures, payment security and accounting systems of operators.
Many state governments still search for a source of sustainable revenue without raising broad taxes. One option is using the revenue from licensing fees and gaming taxes to finance education, infrastructure, and community programs.
While consumer demand moves towards offshore unregulated websites, the regulated market helps to capture economic activity and control it. The revenue comes not only from the tax on revenue but also from application and licensing fees.
Consumer preferences also changed dramatically. Millions of adults already use their smartphones and tablets to entertain themselves every day, and they prefer to use some legal gaming options on safe platforms.
A regulated market offers more protection for consumers since licensed operators should adhere to certain criteria of safety, responsible gambling, and financial security. All these things help to build trust among consumers, regulators, and operators.
Also, modern legislation reflects new technologies. Identity verification, payment processing, fraud protection systems, and constant monitoring of accounts make online gaming safer than most early internet websites.
Existing operators have great importance in the case of the creation of new regulated markets. Organizations like BetMGM operate under the licensing system in a state and should fulfill numerous regulatory obligations to start providing services.
Licensed operators should also undergo the process of compliance reviews concerning such aspects as identity verification, financial reporting, cybersecurity measures and responsible gambling policies. The mentioned process helps to make sure operators keep up with regulatory obligations after entering the market.
The major operators also have a strong focus on developing safe payment systems and account protection technologies. The mentioned systems include various measures like deposit limit controls, session reminders, self-time-out options, and self-exclusion tools.
Licensing operators often develop numerous sources where people can learn about responsible gambling methods and find out how to contact professional organizations in case of necessity. The mentioned sources became a necessary element of the modern licensing process.
Entering the regulated market means maintaining the same standards in the whole market and having opportunities to get necessary resources of support from licensed operators. Competition between the licensed operators stimulates further technological development of operators and their platforms.
Further development of the regulatory schemes of licensed gaming represents a bigger trend towards safer and more transparent online entertainment. Licensing programs that the states implement can effectively substitute the unregulated options with programs that involve protection of the players, technological supervision and responsible gaming principles.
In any case, while states are assessing online slot games licensing and legislation related to iGaming, the regulation will continue to be based on the balance between innovations, advantages and security of the players, building up a sustainable market of the future. Regardless of whether more states decide to develop their own licensing schemes or keep evaluating the existing ones, further growth of regulation will play an important role in the future gaming business.
Photo: John-Mark Smith via Pexels
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On June 26, Children’s Aid was preparing to continue summer sexual health and youth development programming in schools, foster care settings and community organizations across New York City.
By the end of the day, the federal funding behind that work was gone.
The Trump administration terminated Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program grants nationwide with immediate effect, stripping Children’s Aid of $936,700 a year with two years still remaining on its grant.
Children’s Aid has worked in under-resourced New York communities for more than 170 years. Its health and wellness division operates two community clinics and six school-based health centers and provides medical, dental, behavioral health, nutrition, family planning and health care management services.
Children’s Aid also provided programming at the Administration for Children’s Services Children’s Center, where children may stay while waiting for placement in the foster care system.
The organization had no time to prepare its staff, community partners or the approximately 1,200 young people it served annually.
Several nonprofit groups and local governments have filed a lawsuit challenging the administration’s termination of Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program grants and its changes to the program’s evidence-based framework. Separately, 79 members of the Democratic Women’s Caucus and the broader House Democratic Caucus sent HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a letter demanding that the canceled grants be restored.
In the meantime, Children’s Aid is grappling with what comes next.
The funding cut reaches across the predominantly Black and Latino communities in the Bronx, Harlem and Brooklyn, as well as Staten Island, where Children’s Aid brought medically accurate information and trusted adults directly to young people. Nine staff members were affected, including six full-time and three part-time employees.
“We received notification on June 26 that effective June 26 our funding would be terminated,” said Rhonda Braxton, vice president for health and wellness at Children’s Aid. “There was no advance notification, and there was no runway to really end the program.”
Across New York City, the administration’s decision eliminated $4.3 million in annual funding from three grantee organizations and disrupted services reaching more than 19,000 young people.
At Children’s Aid, the loss extends beyond one program.
It threatens work in schools and community spaces, specialized programming for foster youth and the organization’s Just Ask Me peer education initiative. The grant supported a network of adults and youth leaders who taught consent, healthy relationships, communication, medical advocacy and informed decision-making.
The government did not simply remove money from a budget. It cut through years of relationships built in communities where young people already face the greatest barriers to care. The administration canceled 53 grants nationwide as part of a broader overhaul of the federal Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program. Its new funding criteria direct organizations to teach abstinence as the only certain method of preventing pregnancy and place increased emphasis on marriage, fertility and preparing young people for parenthood.
The standards make little reference to preventing sexually transmitted infections and offer virtually no recognition of lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender young people.
The administration has defended the new direction as an effort to steer federal dollars toward abstinence-focused education. That approach reflects a broader conservative argument that comprehensive sexual health programs treat teen sexual activity as unavoidable and diminish parents’ role in guiding their children.
When 19th News requested comment, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services did not respond to the initial query.
But leaders at Children’s Aid do not describe their work as encouraging teenagers to have sex.
They described teaching young people how to recognize an unhealthy relationship. How to communicate. How to give or withhold consent. How to talk to a doctor. How to resist pressure from a friend or partner. How to make decisions that protect the future they want.
The organization had received federal teen pregnancy prevention funding since 2015. Through the grant, staff delivered evidence-based sexual health and youth development programs during the school day, after school and through community organizations.
Pascale Saintonge Austin, director of family planning and pregnancy prevention programs at Children’s Aid, said foster youth face distinct challenges that cannot be addressed by distributing generic health information.
“We won’t be able to provide such a specific curriculum to them anymore that was tailored and made for them,” Saintonge Austin said.
The organization’s Just Ask Me peer health education program is also at risk. Known as JAM, the initiative trains high school students to co-facilitate programs, organize events, advocate for adolescent health and dispel misinformation among their peers.
The young people applied for the positions and were hired based on federal funding that the government withdrew without notice. Children’s Aid must now determine whether it can retain all of them beyond the end of summer.
“They love this work. They’re involved in this work,” Saintonge Austin said. “We will have to make some decisions toward the end of August or beginning of September about whether or not we can even keep all of the peers without some kind of intervention.”
Programs like the ones run by Children’s Aid have made a difference, federal lawmakers say, and Democratic members of Congress are demanding that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. explain the terminations and restore the funding.
Rep. Judy Chu of California said in a statement to The 19th that the Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program has provided medically accurate, evidence-based information for more than 15 years and has helped young people prevent sexually transmitted infections, unintended pregnancies and unhealthy relationships.
“There is simply no justification for abruptly terminating $68 million from programs with a proven record of improving young people’s health,” Chu said. “The Trump administration’s decision is reckless, indefensible and directly undermines the purpose for which Congress provided these funds. That’s why my Democratic Women’s Caucus colleagues and I are demanding answers from Secretary Kennedy about why these grants were terminated and calling for this critical funding to be restored.”
Another lawmaker, Rep. Kelly Morrison of Minnesota, an OBGYN, described the decision as both a physician and lawmaker.
“The administration has unilaterally taken away helpful and potentially life-saving resources from the young people that need them,” Morrison said in a statement to The 19th. “Canceling research-backed, evidence-based programs that prevent STIs, decrease teen pregnancy and save lives is a dangerous policy decision.”
The administration’s criteria place marriage and future parenthood at the center of adolescent sexual health.
But for Saintonge Austin, that framing fails to account for the actual questions young people bring into Children’s Aid classrooms.
Those questions are often about loneliness, acceptance, pressure, confidence and the struggle to establish boundaries. They come from teenagers trying to understand how to care for themselves while growing up in a world that does not always provide them with safe or reliable guidance.
Federal policy may define the program by the pregnancies it seeks to prevent. The young people inside it experience something broader: a place where they can speak honestly, learn whom to trust and develop the skills to enter adulthood with greater control over their lives.
“A lot of times people equate teen pregnancy prevention with sex,” Saintonge Austin said. “I always say it’s never that. It’s about, ‘I want my friend to like me. I want to know how to have a healthy relationship. I don’t know how to say no, or I don’t know how to negotiate.’ It goes beyond the physical act. It’s really about how to navigate a world, become a healthy adult and make decisions in a way where you can reach the goals that you want.”
The need for that work feels urgent in New York City, where the birthrate for teenagers not only remains above the national average, but has begun inching back up after a long decline.
“Congress specifically funded TPPP because evidence-based prevention programs work, and the Administration owes Congress and the American people an explanation for disregarding that clear directive,” said Chu. “We should be strengthening these proven programs, not jeopardizing young people’s access to the accurate health information and resources they need to thrive.”
Nationwide, the birthrate has fallen over the past 15 years, to 11.7 births per 1,000 girls ages 15 to 19 last year, according to federal data. That’s a drop of more than 65 percent since 2010, when the rate was 34.3 births per 1,000 teenage girls.
Researchers have attributed the long decline to several factors, including fewer teenagers having sex and increased contraception use among those who are sexually active. Federal prevention programs have also been credited with helping young people delay sexual activity and make informed health decisions.
New York City was part of that trend for a long time. However, it has begun moving in the opposite direction.
In 2023, three out of every four pregnancies among New York City teenagers were unintended, according to the city health department.
Those pregnancies were also concentrated in communities with the fewest resources. The teen pregnancy rate in neighborhoods with very high poverty was 3.6 times the rate in the city’s lowest-poverty communities, according to New York City’s Taskforce on Racial Inclusion and Equity, and many of these teenagers are Black and Latinx. They continue to face the effects of systemic racism, historic disinvestment and reduced access to health care and other resources that support healthy lives.
Saintonge Austin said the recent rise demonstrates what can happen when young people lose consistent access to sexual health education.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, much of Children’s Aid’s school-based programming was interrupted. New York City high school students did not broadly return to buildings until spring 2021, and schools facing enormous academic losses had to make difficult choices about which subjects and services to prioritize.
At the same time, teenagers were spending more time online, where accurate information competed with rumors and misinformation spreading across social media.
“It shows what happens when there’s this sort of disruption in mass education around comprehensive sexual health education,” Saintonge Austin said. “We were really getting back into the flow of it being integrated into their education and their spaces again, and now the funding was pulled.”
The disruption is occurring again, this time by federal design.
Braxton said Children’s Aid has tried to place affected employees in other vacant positions within the organization when possible. It has contacted school and community partners, notified elected officials and begun searching for other funding.
But replacing nearly $1 million each year is not a realistic short-term solution.
“We have very generous donors,” Braxton said. “We have not been able to fill that huge gap as of yet.”
The organization is also trying to preserve relationships built over years with young people who learned they could approach Children’s Aid staff members without judgment and receive medically accurate answers.
“Our concern is the loss of trusted relationships for our young people,” Braxton said, “and our inability to provide these much-needed, evidence-based, medically accurate services in an era where there’s a lot of disinformation and mistrust.”
Correction: An earlier version of this article misidentified the party filing a legal challenge to the Trump administration’s termination of Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program grants. The plaintiffs are several nonprofit groups and local governments.
This article was originally published by The 19th on August 6, 2026.
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Links for you. Science:
The Most Basic Step of the Ebola Response Is Falling Short
So far, terminated NIH grants have cost University of Pittsburgh $40 million
Reviewer notes: Odds ratios are really odd
NIH Director Bhattacharya kills more health disparities grants
The Cambrian fecal revolution: Fueling the Cambrian Radiation
NIH plans to block international researchers on visas from accessing key funding avenue
I didn’t love Craig Spencer’s ‘embrace MAHA’ column in The Atlantic. Instead of canceling my friend, I called him. Even the sharpest disagreements can be civil. Here’s my line-by-line response to Dr. Craig Spencer’s argument for embracing MAHA.
Other:
We’re Just Going To Keep Doing 2020 Again Until All The Wrong Stuff Is True
How ideas of a vast censorship network moved from the online fringe to Trump policy. Narratives about a “censorship-industrial complex” spread in right-wing circles for years; then they took hold of Washington. What—and who—is behind them?
Why women in their 80s are making noise on a DC street corner every night
Why making Anthony Fauci the enemy will harm US public health for years
Trump’s Homegrown Solar Push Risks Widening Green Divide
GOP senator pushes crypto bill that could benefit human traffickers
See Where Streateries Survive in D.C. – And Why So Many Disappeared
Trump Should Need a Warrant to See Your Phone
Congress’ Watchdog Is Still Struggling to Get Answers on DOGE
How to Make a Good First Impression as a Woman
Florida’s MAGA Attorney General Threatens to Defund Catholic Schools Over Vaccine Mandate (they shouldn’t be receiving money in the first place, but…)
‘Platner on steroids’: Max Miller abuse claims have Republicans silently sweating
Inside the Secretive Boards Deciding Trans Troops’ Fate
A mob viciously beat a trans couple. Now the alleged victims could get sent to prison.
Ethics panel recommends censure for GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards for ‘inappropriate conduct’
“The ICE Agent Behind Me Grabbed the Back of My Shirt and Just Threw Me Like a Sack of Trash”
Trump Is Making Government Worse on Purpose
The Office That Matters More Than The Senate Seat. Forget the scoreboard in DC. The chokepoint is in Austin.
ICE detainee reveals video of drinking water apparently contaminated with worm-like creatures
Google Maps, Uber, and Wall Street Run on Socialism: How the U.S. Government Built the Global Positioning System
The Campus Free Speech Wars Are Over. MAGA Won.
Trump’s Immigration Policies Have Been Rejected; Why Won’t Dems Act Like It?
Twin Cities suburbs restrict license plate data after Star Tribune investigation
The Book That Predicted Pete Hegseth’s Failures
Fat squirrels, rowdy bears and burned-out rangers: How Trump policies are scrambling America’s national parks
What the Crackup of the Heritage Foundation Says About the Post-Trump Right
Brendan Carr’s FCC Rewrites Media Ownership Law Only Congress Can Actually Change
There’s a Blue-Collar Hollywood—and the Paramount Merger Will Kill It. Hollywood isn’t all glamour. It’s thousands of line workers. And a Paramount takeover of Warner will make their lives even more precarious.
The Parasocial Style in American Politics, Part 2: Witch Hunts and Comfort Blankets (not sure I agree with the entirety of the post)
Orbin Mauricio Henriquez Serrano survived a violent arrest in St. Paul. It still haunts him.
On one hand, I love AI technology. On the other hand, I do think there’s a substantial chance that AI will kill most people on Earth within the next decade or two, by designing superviruses. AI is already capable of designing viruses not found in nature, so this isn’t a sci-fi scenario.
Whether these superviruses would be designed and unleashed by nihilistic human individuals, doomsday cults, or rogue AI agents themselves might end up being a secondary question. We know we have nihilistic human individuals who might decide to destroy civilization in a fit of depression or pique. We know we have doomsday cults. The will to destroy humanity exists, and sufficiently capable AI will probably provide a way, if sufficient precautions are not taken. But right now, nobody really knows what precautions will be sufficient.
One idea — promoted by the big AI labs themselves! — is to intentionally slow down the development of AI capabilities. This could conceivably buy us time to take other precautions, such as improved security around bio-labs, better AI alignment, and so on. Intentionally slowing AI development is called “pacing”. The biggest question facing the “pacing” debate right now is whether to curb the use of AI to design better AI — often called “recusive self-improvement”, or “RSI” for short.
I haven’t waded into the pacing debate myself, but as a start, I thought it would be interesting to publish the thoughts of the good folks at the Institute for Progress, whose judgement I generally trust. Part 1 (today’s post) covers how seriously we should take this possibility of RSI, and whether it justifies slowing down frontier AI development. Part 2 will cover policy recommendations. If you work in US policy and would like to connect with the authors, you can reach Tim Fist at tim.fist@ifp.org and Saif Khan at saif@ifp.org.
Frontier AI companies are racing to automate the development of AI, but they seem increasingly worried about what will happen if they succeed.
More than 1,300 employees across every US frontier AI company recently signed an open letter calling for the government to “support an international effort to develop the technical and governance tools needed to deliberately pace the frontier of automated AI development.” The official OpenAI and Anthropic accounts tweeted messages in support of the letter, and the same day Sam Altman told an interviewer “we may have to pace the rate of AI development.”
But before considering whether the letter is relevant for government policy, we have to answer two questions: What does “pacing” actually mean? And does the argument for it stand up to scrutiny?
In our view, the letter is implicitly arguing three things:
Frontier AI companies are close to fully automating AI R&D.
Automating AI R&D would pose serious risks.
Building the option to “pace” — i.e., somehow slow down progress toward fully automated AI R&D — is a good way to address those risks.
Slowing down AI progress should not be taken lightly: Advances in AI could unlock massive societal benefits, from new cures for diseases to abundant robotic labor.
Yet if the AI researchers and CEOs are right about automating AI R&D — both that they could do it and that it would be extremely risky — the right tradeoffs for policymakers might look very different when we get there. With the right preparation, we might be able to manage the risks of automated AI R&D while having AI’s capabilities progress faster and diffuse more broadly than they do today.
So, despite substantial uncertainty, we believe the US should take low-regret policy actions now to prepare for a possible future in which serious risks from automated AI R&D require some form of “pacing.”
Here we’ll explain why, including what makes us take the open letter’s claims seriously and our principles for choosing policies with minimal downside if the risks prove overblown. In the next post, we’ll provide a detailed list of specific policy recommendations.
Frontier AI companies are racing to automate AI R&D. Sam Altman, for example, stated last year that OpenAI aimed to have a “true automated researcher” by March 2028, and Anthropic’s leaders have made similar predictions.1 But how do those goals stack up to reality?
One way of answering is to look at how models are getting better over time at AI R&D. You can break down the skills required for an AI model to do AI R&D into two broad categories: software engineering, where the model writes code for research experiments and training runs, and research taste, where AI models decide which experiments are worth trying.
For software engineering, AI capabilities appear to be increasing exponentially. When AI models are evaluated against how long it would take humans to complete the same engineering tasks — so-called “time horizons” — their capabilities seem to be doubling every 7 months.2
These capability improvements apply to the software engineering tasks required for AI R&D. In a long-running experiment, researchers at Anthropic have found that their models now significantly outperform humans under a fixed time budget on an AI R&D task focused on speeding up AI model training.
For research taste, frontier AI models also show signs of fast improvement, though the evidence is less clear. According to Anthropic’s research, its models have rapidly become proficient at solving “open-ended” tasks that Anthropic’s technical staff work on, where the model must solve problems with no clear specification by generating multiple approaches and then deciding among them.
In a separate open-ended research project where the AI was tasked with proposing and testing hypotheses about an open problem in AI safety, Anthropic’s models significantly outperformed two human researchers (97% performance improvement vs. 23%) when given a similar time budget (5 to 7 days).
While these data don’t tell us when to expect AI R&D to be fully automated, they do suggest that AI will continue to rapidly improve across all constituent capabilities. Each recent model release has in practice led to AI taking more AI R&D tasks from humans.3
In a simple forecast model based on these trends, the research organization METR estimates that over 99% of AI R&D tasks will be automated by 2032.
How much will this increasing automation affect the speed of AI progress? The evidence from today’s models is still unclear.4
Going forward, as more research tasks get automated, it’s possible that compute bottlenecks or diminishing returns to research effort will mean that capabilities only continue growing at the current rate. Capability growth might even be limited because of data bottlenecks or because progress in verifiable domains (i.e., where answers can be checked, like math) might fail to transfer to messy, real-world tasks without a clear correct answer. But as AI companies move closer to fully automating AI R&D, a more dramatic acceleration in capabilities becomes more likely.
Claude Mythos marked a significant jump in AI’s cybersecurity skills, and its release sent shockwaves through government and industry.
If automated AI R&D causes AI to progress significantly faster, we can’t rule out scenarios where Mythos-level jumps in capabilities are happening much more often, perhaps every week or day. If something like that happens, what serious risks — acute threats to national security or public safety — might emerge?
First, automated AI R&D could accelerate risks that would otherwise arrive later (perhaps much later). Second, it could reduce human oversight.5 One or both of those pathways could in turn lead to:
Offense-dominant capability uplift: Recent research shows that today’s AI models can successfully design functional viral genomes and significantly outperform human virologists on questions about complex virology lab protocols. Engineering viruses is one domain where better AI capabilities might be “offense-dominant,” because it might not be possible to develop or deploy defenses (for example, strong personal protective equipment or sufficient biosecurity safeguards for AI) in time to stop an AI-enabled biological attack.6 If AI R&D automation accelerates progress in these domains, defenders will have even less time to prepare.
Loss of control: Frontier AI companies already sometimes struggle to control the behavior of new models. In July, multiple instances of unreleased OpenAI models collaborated to break out of an internal sandbox, take over an OpenAI computing cluster, and launch collective attacks on external services, including the organization HuggingFace. Anthropic and the UK AI Security Institute have since reported similar, though less involved, cybersecurity incidents. If automated R&D enables models to improve much more quickly than AI companies’ monitoring and control protocols, the likelihood that models cause significant harm (e.g., through more costly cybersecurity incidents) will increase. These risks would be compounded by continued uplift in offensive capabilities (including in domains outside cybersecurity), allowing models to cause greater harm when they escape oversight. Competitive pressure on AI companies to invest more in capabilities rather than better monitoring and control systems could exacerbate this risk. If a model with a propensity to take harmful actions is put in full charge of developing more advanced models, the situation might get even worse.7
Power concentration: AI companies today appear to use their best models internally for weeks to months before releasing them to the public. If AI progress accelerates, that delay could create a much larger gap between the AI the public has access to and the models AI companies use, thereby creating a much greater power imbalance. This might lead to a single company having a large advantage in cyber operations, social persuasion, or other narrow domains. The company could also simply gain a huge amount of economic power. While this concern is still speculative for AI, extreme power imbalances have sometimes allowed companies to cause widespread harm, from the United Fruit Company successfully lobbying for a military coup in Guatemala to pharmaceutical companies misleading regulators and the public to increase opioid prescriptions, contributing to the opioid crisis.8
These risks are difficult to evaluate based on existing evidence, but they seem plausible assuming substantial automation of AI R&D. We think policymakers should take them seriously.
According to employees at frontier AI companies (and many of their CEOs9), managing the pace of automated AI development could be the correct response to its risks.
But “pacing” is vague, and given frontier AI’s vast potential benefits, slowing it down would be a drastic step. Things might look very different, however, if automated AI R&D leads to the serious risks we outlined above, which we expect would involve a scenario in which progress in AI happens at a much faster pace than it does today.
In that future, political leadership and the public would likely demand action. And that pressure might lead politicians to enact ill-thought-out or even draconian policies. The recently proposed ban on AI data centers, which would slow AI research while also preventing new AI compute from accelerating economic growth or solving societal problems, provides a vivid example. So in the most concerning scenarios the letter gestures at, a counterproductive approach to pacing may be the default.
However, temporarily limiting the extent of AI R&D automation need not slow the overall pace of innovation. This is because talent and compute resources could be reallocated to diffusing AI, powering more invention across other fields. For another, safety has been core to progress across the history of technology, and it could be here too. Resources could also be allocated to address technical problems — such as cyberdefense, biodefense, and improved model safeguards — that would allow further acceleration of AI capabilities to continue.
Whether pacing is a good approach to risks from AI R&D automation therefore depends on its implementation.10
We propose “pacing” — if it’s ever required — should consist of two parts:
Specifying which automated AI R&D activities are likely to pose severe risks, with thresholds carefully set based on rigorous analysis.
Because some disagreements about whether to pace AI R&D stem from different predictions about what level of AI R&D automation (and resulting acceleration) is even possible, identifying concrete thresholds might allow for different camps to reach positive-sum compromises.
Incentivizing the reallocation of resources away from those severely risky activities and towards two ends:
Accelerating the diffusion of AI capabilities (including via developing applied AI tools like AlphaFold).
Accelerating research that would make further AI R&D automation safer, either by:
Improving the safety of AI models directly (e.g., via developing AI control protocols), or
Boosting societal resilience to make the negative consequences of new AI capabilities less acute (e.g., via using AI to patch open-source code vulnerabilities).
For the reasons we outline above, doing this kind of reallocation could unlock the benefits of AI more broadly than if frontier AI companies focus exclusively on internal AI R&D.
The US government can prepare for this kind of targeted pacing today by:
Providing transparency into automated AI R&D
Improving state capacity to understand and respond to automated AI R&D
Developing a risk management strategy for automated AI R&D that accelerates defensive and commercial AI uses
Accelerating the development of AI verification technology
Investing in AI resilience
Extending the US AI lead to give the US more time to manage AI R&D automation risks
Creating option value for international cooperation on managing automated AI R&D risks
In the next post, we’ll provide 23 specific policy ideas to achieve these seven goals with minimal downside even if the risks of automated AI R&D turn out to be low.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted in January of this year that the current trajectory of Anthropic’s efforts to automate AI research “may be only 1–2 years away from a point where the current generation of AI autonomously builds the next.” Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis claimed in May 2026 that “all the leading labs are quite focused on [recursively self-improving AI].” METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” January 29, 2026, https://metr.org/blog/2026-1-29-time-horizon-1-1/.
METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” January 29, 2026, https://metr.org/blog/2026-1-29-time-horizon-1-1/.
CSET, “When AI Builds AI,” January 2026, https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/CSET-When-AI-Builds-AI.pdf
On the one hand, Section 2.3.2 of Anthropic’s system card for Mythos 5 suggests that its recent Mythos models have established a new, higher trendby data bottlenecks or by progress in verifiable domains (i.e., where answers can be checked, like math) failingcapabilities will continue to grow onlyline for AI capability growth. On the other hand, as of August 2026, Epoch AI’s independent benchmark of AI capabilities does not show any recent speedup.
Reduced oversight could exacerbate risks that would otherwise more quickly than AI companies’ monitoring and control protocols, the chance that rise or create novel risks. CSET provided a taxonomy of oversight-related risks.
For some domains, such as cybersecurity, it appears possible that AI capabilities could be used to attain or preserve defense-dominance. For example, as seen with Project Glasswing and the US government’s 30-day early access program, new AI models can be used to proactively find and patch software vulnerabilities before those capabilities are available to attackers. For other domains, such as biosecurity, proactive “patching” appears much more difficult.
Recently, during training and internal testing, individual instances of OpenAI’s models (which were supposed to be sandboxed) found ways to communicate with each other, exchanging hundreds of thousands of messages. They then found exploits in software libraries each of them had access to, and shared those exploits with each other, allowing them to escape their sandboxes, and to begin directly controlling an OpenAI cluster. Using this access, they created an agent swarm with access to the internet, which hacked into several organizations, including HuggingFace. If future more capable AI models are given greater responsibility in building and overseeing their successors, and while doing so pursue goals unintended by their human developers, they would have even greater latitude to create security risks. For example, they could undermine planned safeguards aimed at keeping the behavior of the new models within specified limits. Much better monitoring and control of model behavior could potentially address these risks.
In the 17th century, the Dutch East India company obtained a global nutmeg monopoly by killing, enslaving, or expelling the majority of the population in the Banda Islands and transferring production to a company-controlled plantation system. More recently, Purdue Pharma admitted criminal conduct involving its internal control of clinical and marketing information and its influence over prescribers, misleading regulators and the public to increase opioid prescriptions and sales, contributing to the opioid crisis.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Anthropic co-founders Dario Amodei and Jack Clark, and former Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis have all publicly suggested they would support managing the pace of AI development.
This raises many complex questions, including: Which AI R&D activities should be subject to “pacing” (e.g., those above a certain speed, those focused on particular kinds of capability development, etc.)? What would be the best allocation of the resources that would otherwise be speeding up AI R&D? Should the US government seek to influence this? If progress in relevant AI capabilities continues to be exponential, how long do policymakers actually have to decide on the appropriate course of action?
Excellent temperatures all week, low-mid 20s, lovely but not too hot, so it was ideal for… spending more time sat at the computer than I have for weeks.
I did write some new code, which is a rare occurrence. Unfortunately I can’t use it on my site yet because it’s in a separate package and, because I use dependency cooldowns, I can’t use that code for a week. (I could probably get round this but I cannot be bothered.)
The rest of the computer time was doing things like improving the GitHub Actions-powered Slack notifications for successful/unsuccessful tests and deploys across five repositories, adding the newly-released Django 6.1 to test suites, and updating a couple of projects for now-deprecated methods in django-treebeard.
I don’t spend as much time as I used to at the computer and 90% of the limited time I spend working on my websites goes towards this kind of keeping-on-top of infrastructure things. There is a small amount of satisfaction in this but very little joy.
I’m not saying the days before tests and version control and deployment pipelines and and and was better, but “write some PHP then FTP it to the server” did let you focus on getting productive stuff done as a solo developer on hobby projects. Even if it frequently broke. I am tapping the meme again.
Despite spending an awful lot of time in recent months setting up my neovim configuration it was still occasionally frustrating – there are so many tiny muscle-memory actions and behaviours when writing code that it’s tough to get a new editor to behave exactly like what you’re used to.
I’m currently trying Gram which is a fork of Zed with all of the AI stuff removed and other useful things built in. (I know Zed has a “disable AI” setting but it’s nicer to be completely free of it.) Gram has a vim mode and I it can import existing settings from VS Code or Zed. It’s been a pretty easy switch and it’s nice getting back to a “proper app”. Especially one for “humanoid apes and grumpy toads”. I keep forgetting what it’s called though.
§ The marquee was taken down on Monday and everything on the party front was back to normal.
Monday to Wednesday we had a rotating cast of workmen from WDS Green Energy here removing our LPG-powered combi boiler and installing a new heat pump outside and accompanying hot water cylinders in the garage. It all looks very modern, and neatly insulated and labeled.
The old boiler wasn’t very old so it didn’t seem very “green” to replace it so early but thankfully the plumber who removed it had just moved into a house with an under-powered boiler and was going to be able to use ours instead.
Aside from the potential benefits of a heat pump* we really wanted to be free from LPG. We were stuck with one supplier who could set prices to whatever they wanted, no matter what prices available elsewhere. If we wanted to switch they’d have to take the tank away, and we’d have to get a new tank from the new supplier. But regulations have changed since this old tank was installed and there are very few places a new tank could legally and safely stand. And all of them would be in the way, or near and in view of the windows, which isn’t ideal. All of which was an incentive to switch sooner than we might otherwise have done.
* We hope there are benefits; we’ll need to wait a couple of months until we need heating to discover exactly how well it works for us.
We have a 9kW Grant R290 heat pump and a Vaillant uniSTOR water cylinder. The control panel for it all is fine. The accompanying app – ecoNET24 – is pretty poor (1.2 stars from 21 reviews on the App Store). It looks like data and controls are pretty accessible locally via APIs which is good in case the company or their online service goes away, or in case I want to devote my life to getting into Home Assistant and the like.
Hopefully, once everything’s set up – we have a review with a WDS person in a few weeks – we won’t need to do anything more than adjust the heating thermostat up and down. I can see how interesting looking at graphs for endless stats could be, and trying to optimise temperatures and behaviours, but houses shouldn’t need to be this complicated.
It reminds me of personal finance: you could obsess over your investment costs, carefully construct bond ladders, monitor performance in great detail every day, etc. Or you could do 95% as well with one low cost 60/40 fund and mostly forget about it. Go for it all if you love it, otherwise get on with your life.
§ It’s now eight weeks since I stubbed my toe and it’s certainly better now than it was. Most of the time it feels fine. Occasionally I suddenly put a lot of weight on it and it aches. Today it’s been aching a little all day for some reason. But it’s the first week when, today aside, it’s felt almost normal again.
I had ten days or so off from weights at the gym, as a break in my usual cycle. Given I’ve also been avoiding cardio and yoga because of my toe my only exercise, not much, was normal life this week. Which was very nice. It’s very understandable that people don’t want to exercise. It’s been a bit of a drag getting back to the gym and I should start back on the other things soon.
§ Only the other day I was describing to Mary the only thing I remembered from The Three Investigators books: the three young lads whose HQ was a caravan hidden under piles of rubbish in a scrap yard. At the time, as a boy who would have loved a cool HQ for his own detective club, this was amazing. So amazing that I’d entirely forgotten, until this mention in the LRB, that Alfred Hitchcock “presented” the books and was featured in the stories, and the boys got driven around in a gold Rolls Royce by an English chauffeur. Unimportant details, clearly.
§ We watched a few episodes of Elsbeth this week, which was OK, and a gentle break after watching The Pitt but there’s not really enough to it. She is amusing but watching her work out how the murderer did it – which we’ve mostly seen, and who she always suspects from the start – isn’t very gripping. And what overall arc there is, is very thin.
§ We were going to sit outside in the shade today, a relaxing day of doing nothing but reading. We retreated indoors in the afternoon because the air started getting a little smoky from distant wildfires. The dry grass crackles underfoot like cut straw.
As I write, after a “day of doing nothing but reading”, I’ve half-read only 2½ LRB articles, done half the Everyman crossword, and read a lot of internet. This is not the way to get through my constantly full shelf of unread magazines and books.
1. African use of Chinese AI (NYT). And what happened to Talenti gelato? (NYT) And the NIMBY brutalists who live in the Barbican (NYT).
2. Modernist Gothic in Copenhagen.
3. AI-generated Odyssey in Vietnam.
5. Time magazine has a special version that only the AIs can read.
6. Tymofiy Mylovanov has a good summary of my greatest fear.
The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
It turns out that Cornell had no rule preventing students from skinning bears in a communal dormitory kitchen. But now they do. (A lot of regulation works like that... keep an eye on AI...)
Outside of Trump World, there’s a glaring line between the “try, try again” thinking of those passionate about an outcome and the bone-headed, stubborn hatred for immigrants reflected in Donald Trump’s issuance of new executive orders restricting Birthright Citizenship.
Inside the insular White House, there seems to be only one rule – to embody Trump’s oft-changing whims, never mind law, practicalities, expense, regulations or complications for the many who will be affected. Just make it happen.
For most of us, the line comes with law, even if there are arguments about morality, decency or empathy. But the two executive orders handed down Thursday to limit “birth tourism,” as if that is understandable or appropriate, come mere weeks after the Supreme Court told Trump that the Constitution does guarantee that with exceptions for diplomats, birth on U.S. soil guarantees automatic citizenship.
In issuing his executive orders to expand those exceptions, Trump even used the very same, rejected arguments as justification, and threw in made-up numbers as well to characterize births in the U.S. as an underhanded invasion by undocumented migrants. Trump insists that the birthright provision only was meant historically to deal with the status of post-Civil War slaves, a finding that failed at the Supreme Court.
What makes Trump think that him repeating the same, only louder and accompanied by a pan of the Supreme Court justices, will have a different outcome?
If Trump wants to change the Constitution, there is a process, unwieldy yes, but one that requires two-thirds of the states to sign on, not just a swipe of a Sharpie in Trump’s gilded Oval Office. Even the concurrence by Justice Brett Kavanaugh laid out a way for Congress to pass federal law exemptions, but Trump shunned that too.
He simply wants to be the one to decide this and all other matters of law, science, climate, health care and sexual mores and choices. That, too, is reflected in the glare of the bright light of stubbornness. Just yesterday, by coincidence, a judge told Trump he had to stop his ballroom project for exactly the same reason – taking the law into his own hands. He will appeal to the Supreme Court, of course, to allow him to do just that.
Even enforcing these new orders on birthright is problematic.
The new rules would restrict those who could qualify for birthright citizenship to exclude children of staff working for foreign governments but serving in the United States, and the babies of mothers who lie about their intentions for visiting the country while pregnant. A third category governing the status of those born in U.S. territories, would require congressional action.
The second order directs federal agencies to target “birth tourism operators” who arrange such travel to the US.Such travel already constitutes “visa fraud” and is illegal, again raising questions about the practical implications of the new order beyond its political value.
How is Trump planning to determine who is a “tourist” and who is a “birth tourist” who is lying about the reasons for visiting the U.S.
Presumably, the only effective tool will be to bar all pregnant visitors – whose ranks are in the “hundreds of thousands,” according to Trump, despite studies showing only tiny percentages of births annually to visitors. Trump offered what he said were examples of individuals claiming scores of children.
As The New York Times noted, any renewed effort to prevent new classes of people from having babies in the U.S. granted citizenship would invite fresh rounds of litigation, including challenges on who counts as “alien enemies” and invading armies — categories that lower court judges have already rejected in separate cases involving the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration policies. Immigration law bars discrimination in the issuing of immigrant visas, almost certain to rise as a claim here.
That Trump wants to limit the guarantee of birthright citizenship is not new, nor is his derision of justices that would rule against him. Trump said he would ask the justices to reconsider the decision, but the deadline for doing so has passed without Trump taking action.
Instead, Trump is following the same track as he did with global tariffs, an issue that the Supreme Court also struck down. Rather than heed the court’s ruling, Trump invented new justifications for tariffs using different sections of law. The new tariffs, in effect now, are being challenged by a new lawsuit from a coalition of state attorneys general.
When prospects looked dimmer for confirmation of his personal lawyer Todd Blanche as attorney general, Trump insisted he would keep Blanche in the job and ditch the confirmation process. As Trump has found he lacks votes in the Senate to adopt his voter restriction legislation, he has stubbornly gone ahead and just summarily limited voting himself by pushing sudden redistricting efforts and threatening to keep the Postal Service from delivering mail ballots in Democratic states.
If neither the legal nor practical concerns are advancing, what is Trump doing besides abusing the power of his office to show us how powerful he sees himself? What lesson is there here besides recognizing an autonomous, authoritarian White House that wants to issue its own laws without oversight or question?
Birthright citizenship generally grants U.S. citizenship to people born in the United States under the Citizenship Clause of the 14th Amendment.
The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026 decision rejected the Trump administration’s effort to exclude children born in the United States based on their parents’ immigration or temporary-resident status.
In Trump v. Barbara, the Court concluded that the Citizenship Clause covers children born in the United States even when their parents are unlawfully or temporarily present.
The term generally refers to traveling to another country while pregnant with the intention of giving birth there, sometimes to obtain citizenship rights for the child.
“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.
The post Trump Challenges Birthright Citizenship Again appeared first on DCReport.org.
Old-fashioned class theory is making a comeback.
What I mean by class theory here is a focus on how income is divided between capital and labor. In 21st-century U.S. political debate, even suggesting that this is an important topic will get one attacked as a Marxist. But even before the advent of Karl Marx, classical economists like Adam Smith were extremely interested in how a nation’s income was distributed among workers, capitalists, and landowners.
Yet when inequality began rising around 1980, many economists (myself included), initially downplayed concerns about the factor distribution of income — that is, how national income is distributed among different factors of production. In the modern economy, the main distinction is how much income accrues to capital (i.e., shareholders) and how much accrues to labor (workers). Instead, most economists emphasized the personal distribution of income — that is, relative individual incomes, whatever their source. At the time, this focus made sense because growing disparities in paychecks, not a shift of income from labor and to capital, were the main cause of soaring inequality. Between 1979 and 2000, the share of total income going to labor as opposed to capital was basically unchanged. But while the typical worker’s income, adjusted for inflation, barely increased over that period, the average real labor income of the highest earning 1 percent, such as top executives, nearly tripled.
Since 2000, however, an entirely different dynamic has emerged: the share of labor compensation in total income has declined sharply. In other words, the share of national income going to workers, including highly paid workers, has plunged while the share going to the owners of capital has soared. Furthermore, the rise of AI, which appears to reduce the need for workers while requiring huge capital investments both in software and in physical assets such as datacenters, power supplies, and advanced chips, may cause a further large shift in income from labor to capital.
The major motivation for this latest series of primers is the rise of America’s new oligarchy. Billionaires now exert vast and growing influence over our politics as a result of the income and wealth they accrue from their ownership of vast amounts of capital. It’s crucial to understand that policy — both regulatory policy and tax policy — can play a key role in either reversing or exacerbating this historic shift against labor.
Today’s primer will be devoted to a discussion of the role tax policy plays in the factor distribution of income. In particular I will discuss how a huge shift in the American tax code, mostly occurring since the 1970s, in favor of capital and against workers has increased inequality. Moreover, I will cover how the tilt of the tax code in favor of capital will worsen the consequences of AI for American workers. Finally, I will discuss why it will be necessary for policymakers and elected officials to reverse this tilt of the tax code in order to break the tightening grip of oligarchy.
Beyond the paywall I will address the following:
1. Why a higher capital share of national income increases inequality
2. The great shift in the American code against labor and in favor of capital
3. How that tax shift affected income and wealth inequality
4. How the pro-capital tilt in tax policy is likely to worsen the impact of AI on American workers
5. Why we need to reverse the tax bias against labor
Who would have thought that someone could make a gripping movie about predicting the weather? Nevertheless, Pressure delivers. To be sure, it’s predicting the weather for D-Day. Excellent cast. Hews very close to the truth. The two camps really did divide on theory versus past prediction and the weather was as portrayed. After the war, John F. Kennedy asked Eisenhower what gave the Allies the decisive advantage during the D-Day invasion, Eisenhower replied, “We had better meteorologists than the Germans.”
I agree with Tyler’s earlier review: A truly excellent movie, one of the best of the year. Specifically, it concerns the meteorological forecasts (!) leading up to the D-Day invasion. Thematically, it is about the differences between Americans and Brits, how bureaucracy operates, the nature of leadership, and the proper role of science in government. It is like an old-style Hollywood movie. Most of the action takes place in only a few rooms, and with superb dialogue and performances. Although you all know how D-Day turns out, the movie still generates suspense on some of the major plot points.
The post Pressure appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
From Kennedy’s 1961 inaugural:
and from the 1962 moon speech at Rice University;
and from Lyndon Johnson’s inaugural speech:
Sound familiar?
Were John F. Kennedy’s speeches written by an AI? Probably not. But were AI’s trained on the speech writer Ted Sorensen? It would appear so. Or to be more accurate, AIs have absorbed the Sorensen toolkit: symmetry, parallelism, antithesis, repetition, and the neatly turned reversal.
Sorensen is considered a great stylist, and these are iconic lines. The problem with AI voice is not the techniques themselves. It is the overuse of them—their deployment to describe a trip to 7-Eleven with the same rhetorical flourishes once used to send men to the moon.
I suspect that will be an easy problem to fix, so don’t expect AI voice to continue.
Hat tip: murgh
The post JFK’s AI Voice appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
The post One of the better pro-natalist Lieder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
The Balkans may be the only region other than central Asia where fertility has increased from 2015 to 2026.*
All of the highest fertility rates in Europe are in the Balkans. As of 2024: Montenegro (1.8), Bulgaria (1.73) Moldova (1.73), and Serbia (1.64) are top four. France was next at 1.61.
Other balkan countries were generally about 1.5 (Slovenia, Croatia, Kosovo, Bosnia, and Slovakia), comparable to the highest non-gallic TFRs in Western Europe: Britain (1.55) and Ireland (1.47).
The lowest Balkan countries (Macedonia, Romania, Albania, and Hungary) sit at ~1.35-1.4, which would be lowish for Western Europe, but extremely high for Southern Europe or the former Warsaw pact/USSR.
During the post-soviet nadir, the Balkans had perhaps the lowest fertility in Europe. The rates rose circa 2010, and have recently continued to slowly rise.
Ostensibly similar cultures/economies have no parallel increase (Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, and the Baltics).
I don’t have any theory that would explain this pattern. Balkan men are famously unhelpful husbands and fathers, and the Balkans aren’t any more religious than Poland, Italy and Belarus.
What could possibly be the deal?
That is from Thomas Hanes.
The post Is there a Balkan fertility paradox? (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Yesterday I published an article titled “App Store Rejection of the Week: Dark Hours”. I have retracted it. Its premise was so fundamentally wrong that there’s no point merely correcting or editing it. Even the title, as I explain below, was inaccurate. Although the original is now retracted, I’m not memory-holing it. The text of the original story is available, for transparency and accountability, in plain text (Markdown, natch) and PDF (preserving original presentation). Both of those versions include a preface at the top linking to this retraction. The URL for the original story now redirects to this one that you are currently reading.
To the best of my recollection, this is the first post I’ve retracted in the 24 years I’ve been writing Daring Fireball. I hope it’s the last. I was misled, both overtly and through omissions, in several ways, but what I publish is my responsibility, and I apologize for the error.
Terry Godier first came to my attention in February, when I linked to his excellent interactive essay on RSS feed reader design, “Phantom Obligation”, which essay introduced Current, Godier’s new RSS reader that he made to exemplify the ideas from his essay. Current is, deservedly, a bit of a breakout hit. (E.g., David Pierce, at The Verge, put it on a very short list of iOS-exclusive indie apps that keep him from switching to Android.) In March I linked to another interactive essay from Godier, “The Last Quiet Thing”, and again in April to a post regarding the App Store’s 5-star review system. I struck up an iMessage correspondence with Godier around when I first linked to his work.
Yesterday Godier posted “Browsers Have Standards, the App Store Has Judgment”. As originally published, that post contained these two paragraphs:
A while ago I tried to submit an iOS app for Dark Hours, my astronomy website for normal people. It was rejected on the grounds that it was astrology.
It has no tarot function, no horoscopes, and nothing that I, or anyone else I’ve asked, would associate with astrology.
Those paragraphs, at this writing (August 8, 11:00 pm ET), have been deleted and replaced by this:
Note: the original version of this post had a section here about an astronomy app I am working on that began as an astrology app and was rejected after having the astrology content removed. App store [sic] review reached out to me and let me know that they had apparently never been given the updated build and that the app should be fine to submit now.
You can now see the problem that has led me to fully retract my original post, given that my post was entirely predicated on the premise that Godier’s original description of the rejected app was true — that the app “has no tarot function, no horoscopes, and nothing that I, or anyone else I’ve asked, would associate with astrology.” The truth is, the app, as originally submitted by Godier to the App Store (under the name “Asterly”, not “Dark Hours”), was entirely dedicated to astrology, not astronomy, and did in fact include a “Tarot card of the day” feature amongst other occultist horseshit.
The grounds of Apple’s original App Store rejection of the app, and the rejection’s upholding by the App Review Board, were correct.1 I wrongly took Godier at his word, both in his public blog post and in private iMessage correspondence yesterday, that the rejection wasn’t just merely debatable, but completely and rather preposterously ungrounded. Whether Godier ever submitted a build of “Asterly” to the App Store that contained no occult horseshit and only the hard-science astronomy features that were present in his “Dark Hours” website that was available for the last week, I don’t know. But I have no reason to believe that he did.
My disdain for astrology is so utter, and my esteem for Godier’s previous work so high, that it simply never occurred to me that he might have actually made and submitted to the App Store an astrology app, let alone that he’d then feign surprise and frustration that an astrology app was rejected for being an astrology app. I showed him a draft of my post before publication, to make sure I had the story straight, and he offered not a word of caution, only gratitude for my drawing attention to the matter.
It gets messier. Godier’s astrology app that he submitted to the App Store back in January was named “Asterly”. That was still the name when the App Review Board upheld its rejection in April. According to Godier, frustrated by the App Store’s rejection, he ported the astronomy version to the web, launching it last week under the name “Dark Hours” at the domain darkhours.io. (This is why it was incorrect for me, in the very title of my post, to claim that Apple had rejected an app named “Dark Hours”. They rejected an app named “Asterly” and had never seen an app from Godier named “Dark Hours”.) Yesterday, after I linked to Godier’s post and Hacker News then linked to my post, Godier’s “Dark Hours” (with a space) came to the attention (and justifiable surprise) of Miguel Beher, creator of an open-source “astrophotography and dark-sky planner” project named DarkHours (no space). Beher’s GitHub project contains the source code, and the actual web app is freely available at the domain darkhours.app. In an uncomfortable exchange between Beher and Godier on Bluesky, Beher pointed out that Godier’s Dark Hours had the same bug as Beher’s that routed people to “random fields in Mexico”. Earlier today, Godier took his web app down and redirected his darkhours.io domain to Beher’s darkhours.app.
At the end of my now-retracted post yesterday, assuming I had righteously and rightly skewered Apple for an egregiously erroneous App Store review rejection, I wrote:
Mistakes happen. But in a functioning system mistakes get corrected, and mistakes as obvious as this one get corrected almost instantly and include a quick apology for the conflation.
Obviously it was I who was mistaken. This article is my correction, and I apologize to all who read and believed my now-retracted post, and to the reviewers at the App Store whose competence (if not literacy) I besmirched. I am deeply sorry about that. Won’t happen again.
Regardless of one’s opinion regarding pseudoscience and occultist horseshit — pro, con, or indifferent — one might reasonably think it wrong for Apple to disallow or discourage such apps from the App Store. In fact, there exist plenty of such apps in the App Store, and Apple has even run “Best Astrology Apps” editorial features. Apple’s stance is basically that the App Store has enough of these apps (and I suspect they’re a common source of scams, given that by their very nature they target the gullible). Guideline 4.3(b) states (emphasis added):
Certain kinds of apps, such as dating, flashlight, sound effects, wallpaper, simple timers, and fortune telling, are well established on the App Store and we will not accept new submissions unless they offer a meaningfully different or improved experience. We may remove these apps from the App Store going forward if they are not updated, improved, or do not attract customers. Other kinds of apps, such as drinking games, Kama Sutra, fart, and burp apps, are mediocre, low-quality, or low-effort and do not add value to the App Store.
That serial comma, ever useful, gives hope to anyone hard at work on a “fart and burp” app. ↩︎
Each of these pairs of galaxies is different.
My thanks to WorkOS for, once again, sponsoring DF last week. What’s the best way to connect AI agents to your API? REST is great for human developers; MCP serves the agents. Many teams treat REST and MCP as competing standards, and through choice or necessity, pick one. But they ought not be considered rivals. They’re separate layers. Most MCP servers just call REST internally to do the real work. The best ones don’t convert every endpoint into a tool, they focus on what the agents are actually trying to accomplish.
That layered approach also means shipping OAuth 2.1 with scoped tokens. WorkOS AuthKit already speaks that spec, so you skip building an auth provider on top. Check out WorkOS’s breakdown on MCP vs. REST.
Market Design
