Wednesday assorted links

1. Under Australia’s social media ban, it will be harder for museums to reach young audiences.

2. The influence of Claremont Institute fellows.

3. Poem written by an LLM.

4. The philosophy of Solvej Balle.

5. “Persuasion of humans in the bottleneck.”

6. Scott Sumner movie reviews.  And more.

7. Bela Tarr, RIP (NYT).

8. David Zipper says “Europe Doesn’t Need Driverless Cars.” (FT)

9. Roger Guesnerie, RIP.

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Five Years After January 6, Dozens of Pardoned Insurrectionists Have Been Arrested Again

19th News Logo

The charges range from possession of child pornography to sexual assault, child molestation and aggravated kidnapping.

When President Donald Trump on the first day of his second term granted clemency to nearly 1,600 people convicted in connection with the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, Linnaea Honl-Stuenkel immediately set up a Google Alert to track these individuals and see if they’d end up back in the criminal justice system. Honl-Stuenkel, who works at a government watchdog nonprofit, said she didn’t want people to forget the horror of that day — despite the president’s insistence that it was a nonviolent event, a “day of love.”

Honl-Stuenkel, the digital director at Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics (CREW) in Washington, D.C., said the Google Alerts came quickly.

…at least 33 insurrectionists who have been rearrested, charged or sentenced for other crimes since January 6, 2021.

The list eventually became a more formal report, published in December, that identified at least 33 insurrectionists who have been rearrested, charged or sentenced for other crimes since January 6, 2021. The charges range from possession of child pornography to sexual assault, child molestation and aggravated kidnapping. Many incidents occurred before the pardons; only four insurrectionists allegedly reoffended since receiving their pardons.

“I found it really disturbing that the pardons put people on the street again who had been held to account,” Honl-Stuenkel said. “All that was swept away with the stroke of a pen. And that has consequences mostly for the women and children in the orbit of these insurrectionists.”

At least six of the pardoned insurrectionists are charged with committing child sex crimes; five were charged with illegal possession of weapons, including two who had previous domestic violence convictions; and two were charged with rape. Among them were John Daniel Andries, a man in Maryland who was sentenced to 60 days in jail in June 2025 after repeatedly violating a peace order, similar to a restraining order, submitted by the mother of his child.

“I was surprised honestly by how fast it all added up,” Honl-Stuenkel said. “I would have thought that people might take this as a chance to reform, but it was demoralizing to get deep in the weeds and see a level of seriousness to these crimes. It really hit home how dangerous the pardons are and the overlap of those committing serious crimes and being at January 6 — it is pretty staggering to me.”

Honl-Stuenkel said it’s likely the number is bigger than 33. The small team of researchers at CREW relied heavily on local news coverage that mentioned defendants who were tied to January 6.

Honl-Stuenkel said she worries that the pardons embolden people to commit more crimes or make people believe they won’t face any consequences as “long as what they do is in service of Trump’s aims.”

There are two versions of January 6: one pushed by the president, in which peaceful patriots and heroes were wrongfully treated, and a more violent one, portrayed by thousands of videos taken that day by insurrectionists themselves. Witnesses that day, including women serving in Congress, recall the terror, running for their lives and calling their loved ones to say goodbye.

On the campaign trail, Trump referred to those involved with the Capitol riot as “unbelievable patriots” and promised to help them. Shortly after granting them clemency, Trump told reporters on Air Force Once: “What I did was a great thing for humanity. They were treated very, very unfairly.”

Trump’s pardons and commutations largely undo the results of one of the largest criminal probes in U.S. history. The Department of Justice also conducted an investigation that involved over 5,000 federal agents and led to thousands of charges.

The blanket clemency for the Capitol attack and the president’s unwillingness to hold violent actors accountable set a precedent that increases the risk of future political violence — felt most acutely by women. According to a recent survey conducted by the Bridging Divides Initiative at Princeton University, women in local offices reported large increases in hostility in the third quarter of 2025. About 83 percent of women officials — up from 71 percent in the previous quarter — said they were less likely to engage in political or civic activity due to insults, harassment and physical threats.

Shannon Hiller, the executive director of the Bridging Divides Initiative, said she spent the first half of her career working with other countries on how to emerge from conflict. She learned that to build a durable peace and move forward from violence, there has to be an agreement on the basic details of what happened.

“The president’s continued insistence on spreading false narratives about January 6 over the past year — including about very real violence and threats that day — suggest that we are moving even further away from that shared understanding,” said Hiller, who is also a security fellow at the Truman National Security Project.

On the fifth anniversary of the Capitol riot, Trump supporters held a memorial march in Washington, D.C., to honor Ashli Babbitt, a 35-year-old veteran who was the sole rioter killed by police that day. She was shot as she tried to enter the area outside the House chamber, where many members of Congress were, and has since been portrayed as a martyr among Trump supporters. The former leader of the Proud Boys and other pardoned insurrectionists were in attendance at Tuesday’s march.

Susan Benesch, a faculty associate of the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University, said that many of Trump’s supporters — beyond just those who were pardoned — saw the pardons as a victory. It’s important for democracy that Americans work to get back to a shared version of reality, which involves continued communication between the two sides.

“The president depicts himself as politically persecuted,” Benesch said. “And for many people who voted for him, his second term is a marvelous triumph because he was persecuted by his political opponents and now he has managed to overcome that and be restored.”

This article was originally published by The 19th on January 6, 2026.


“FREEDOM OF THE PRESS IS NOT JUST IMPORTANT TO DEMOCRACY, IT IS DEMOCRACY.” – Walter Cronkite. CLICK HERE to donate in support of our free and independent voice.

The post Five Years After January 6, Dozens of Pardoned Insurrectionists Have Been Arrested Again appeared first on DCReport.org.

BLS: Job Openings Declined to 7.1 million in November

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
emphasis added
The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November; the employment report to be released on Friday will be for December.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in November to 7.15 million from 7.45 million in October.

The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. 

Quits were up 4% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

The Wegman’s Supermarket Chain Is Probably Using Facial Recognition

The New York City Wegman’s is collecting biometric information about customers.

A Cyberattack Was Part of the US Assault on Venezuela

We don’t have many details:

President Donald Trump suggested Saturday that the U.S. used cyberattacks or other technical capabilities to cut power off in Caracas during strikes on the Venezuelan capital that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

If true, it would mark one of the most public uses of U.S. cyber power against another nation in recent memory. These operations are typically highly classified, and the U.S. is considered one of the most advanced nations in cyberspace operations globally.

‘Icons in Menus Everywhere — Send Help’

Jim Nielsen:

It’s extra noise to me. It’s not that I think menu items should never have icons. I think they can be incredibly useful (more on that below). It’s more that I don’t like the idea of “give each menu item an icon” being the default approach.

This posture lends itself to a practice where designers have an attitude of “I need an icon to fill up this space” instead of an attitude of “Does the addition of a icon here, and the cognitive load of parsing and understanding it, help or hurt how someone would use this menu system?”

The former doesn’t require thinking. It’s just templating — they all have icons, so we need to put something there. The latter requires care and thoughtfulness for each use case and its context.

To defend my point, one of the examples I always pointed to was macOS. For the longest time, Apple’s OS-level menus seemed to avoid this default approach of sticking icons in every menu item.

That is, until macOS Tahoe shipped.

Nielsen’s post on MacOS 26 Tahoe’s tragic “icons for every menu item” design edict was published a month ago, before Nikita Prokopov’s post on the same subject yesterday. Both posts are crackerjack good, and complement each other. Nielsen makes the point that the Mac stood as a counter to platforms and systems that put icons next to every menu item. Of course Google Docs has icons next to every menu item. It sucks. Google sucks at UI design. We Mac users laugh at their crappy designs.

Well, who’s laughing now? It might sound hyperbolic but this change is the reason why I’ve decided not to upgrade to MacOS 26 Tahoe. I could put up with the rest of Liquid Glass’s half-baked who-thought-this-was-OK-to-ship? nonsense, but not the whole menu bar. I can tolerate being angry about UI changes Apple makes to the Mac. But I can’t tolerate being heartbroken.

 ★ 

‘The Big Regression’

Jason Fried:

My folks are in town visiting us for a couple months so we rented them a house nearby.

It’s new construction. No one has lived in it yet. It’s amped up with state of the art systems. You know, the ones with touchscreens of various sizes, IoT appliances, and interfaces that try too hard.

And it’s terrible. What a regression.

Examples include: light switches that require a demo to use, a Miele dishwasher that requires the use of a companion phone app, a confusing-to-use TV (of course), inscrutable thermostats, and:

And the lag. Lag everywhere. Everything feels a beat or two behind. Everything. Lag is the giveaway that the system is working too hard for too little. Real-time must be the hardest problem.

Now look... I’m no luddite. But this experience is close to conversion therapy. Tech can make things better, but I simply can’t see in these cases. I’ve heard the pitches too — you can set up scenes and one button can change EVERYTHING. Not buying it. It actually feels primitive, like we haven’t figured out how to make things easy yet.

In this period of the computerization of everything, so many systems have lost the innate intuitiveness from their analog counterparts. Light switches were easy and obvious. Flip the switch. Thermostats were easy and obvious. Turn the dial until the indicator points to the temperature you want. Light switches and Honeywell thermostats were so simple they seemed like they weren’t “interfaces” at all, which is why they were such great interfaces. The best interfaces almost literally disappear.

One of the mottos of the Perl programming language is that easy things should be easy, and hard things should be possible. That’s the ideal when designing anything. But the more important part is keeping easy things easy. A house full of old-fashioned analog light switches is better than a house full of smart switches that need a demo to use at all, even though with the old-fashioned switches, you can’t do hard things like turn off the lights remotely, or turn off every light in the house with one action. The smart switches might seem like an improvement because they make possible hard things that were previously impossible. Making possible the impossible is surely a win, right? But not necessarily. Making possible the heretofore impossible isn’t axiomatically a win. It’s a loss if it comes at the expense of keeping the easy things easy, consistent, reliable, and intuitive. Nothing exemplifies that more than the decline in user experience of watching TV, and attempting something as previously simple as flipping between two games on two different channels.

The guiding principle when creating computerized versions of analog systems ought to be “First, do no harm.” Everything should be as easy, obvious, reliable, and intuitive as in the old system. Only add to that what doesn’t introduce any regressions on those fronts.

Alas, that’s not how the world has proceeded.

 ★ 

‘Who’s Who at X, the Deepfake Porn Site Formerly Known as Twitter’

The Financial Times has a nice illustrated guide to the leadership team at Twitter/X, where things are going about as you’d expect.

 ★ 

Don Mattingly Joins Phillies as Bench Coach

Welcome to Philadelphia, Donnie Baseball.

 ★ 

ISM® Services Index Increased to 54.4% in December

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4% December 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report
Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee:

“In December, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 54.4 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than the November figure of 52.6 percent and a third consecutive month of expansion. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in December, registering 56 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 54.5 percent recorded in November. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in December, with a reading of 57.9 percent, 5 percentage points above November’s figure of 52.9 percent. The Employment Index expanded for the first time in seven months with a reading of 52 percent, a 3.1-percentage point improvement from the 48.9 percent recorded in November — the fifth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.8 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 54.1 percent recorded in November. This is the 13th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 64.3 percent in December, its lowest level since a reading of 60.9 percent in March 2025. The December figure was a 1.1-percentage point drop from November’s reading of 65.4 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 13 straight months.br /> emphasis added
Employment expanded following six consecutive month of contraction.

Howard Oakley on the MacOS 26 Tahoe UI

Howard Oakley, writing at The Eclectic Light Company

macOS Tahoe’s visual interface:

  • Fits largely rectangular contents into windows with excessively rounded corners.
  • Enlarges controls without any functional benefit.
  • Results in app icons being more uniform, thus less distinguishable and memorable.
  • Fails to distinguish tools, controls and other interface elements using differences in tone, so making them harder to use.
  • Makes a mess where transparent layers are superimposed, and won’t reduce transparency when that’s needed to render its interface more accessible.

Maybe this is because I’m getting older, but that gives me the benefit of having experienced Apple’s older interfaces, with their exceptional quality and functionality.

It’s just remarkable how much better-looking MacOS was 10 years ago, compared to MacOS 26 Tahoe at its best. And it’s equally remarkable just how bad MacOS 26 Tahoe looks in many typical, non-contrived situations, where entire menus or the title of a window are rendered completely illegible.

 ★ 

ADP: Private Employment Increased 41,000 in December

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%
“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of 50,000 jobs added. The BLS will report on Friday, and the consensus is for 55,000 jobs added.

John Henry Kagel (1942-2026), an incomparable experimental economist

 John Kagel will be buried this morning,  January 7, at  New Tifereth Israel Cemetery in Columbus, Ohio. He passed away yesterday.  I don't know the details, but my sense is that he hadn't been well for a while. He was 83.

In his prime, John was the best experimental economist in the world.

He was also my friend, colleague, coauthor, co-editor, and all-around mensch and role model. He was full of life.  

Words fail. 

Here's his Google scholar page. 

In 2023 the journal Experimental Economics had a special issue in John's honor: here's the Introduction

May his memory be a blessing. 

ICE Raids Drive Cancellation of Hispanic Events as ‘Deportation Terror’ Spreads

Numerous Hispanic culture and heritage events across the United States have been cancelled in recent months due to fears of ICE raids and ambushes.

These events, many of which were in celebration of National Hispanic Heritage Month, which ran from mid-September through mid-October, and Mexican Independence Day on September 15 and 16, were previously opportunities for residents to celebrate the history, traditions and cultural diversity of Hispanic Americans. But with the recent expansion and mobilization of ICE under the second Trump administration, townships and community organizers predicted that attendees, whether or not they are undocumented, would be targeted and arrested by ICE agents. Experts said that this pattern is a response to a new iteration of the “deportation terror” and commended the decision to cancel the festivals.

The City of Everett, Massachusetts, for example, revealed in a post that it cancelled its Fiesta del Rio planned for September 20.

“With the recent ICE raids in our region, many of our friends and neighbors are feeling fear and uncertainty,” read the post. “We believe it would not be right to hold a celebration at a time when members of our community may not feel safe attending.”

The Hispanic Heritage Festival in Wheaton, Maryland, El Grito Chicago and Tacos y Tequila Festival in Spokane, Washington, were also cancelled due to worries that ICE agents would show up.

Most recently, the Milpas Street Holiday Parade, scheduled for December 13 in Santa Barbara and El Carnaval de Puebla, an event in Philadelphia, were also axed in December, due to similar concerns.

Rachel Ida Buff, an immigration historian at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, said the deportation terror is a term used in scholarship to describe the large-scale utilization of deportations and raids by the federal government to control immigrant communities.

For undocumented immigrants, the typical target of current ICE operations in the United States, “that amount of pressure is incredible… to have to live with when they’re just conducting the activities of daily life,” Buff said. “There are many U.S. citizen children that have psychological dread of coming home from school because they’re afraid their parents won’t be there. That’s why we call that terror.”

Masked ICE agents
Federal agents and law enforcement conduct a raid on street vendors during rush hour on October 21, 2025 in New York City. Photo by Michael Nigro/Sipa USA, Sipa via AP Images

In her 2008 essay “The Deportation Terror” in which Buff coins the term, she traces back to the targeted deportation of Mexican immigrants during the Great Depression and leftists during Cold War-era McCarthyism. Buff said that the usage of the word “terror” has since been obscured by politicians and media organizations.

“I thought that was really an important phrase to rescue because these days, terror is usually used as an Islamophobic phrase to justify national security,” Buff said, “and I think that that phrase was and is descriptive of the experience of immigrant communities.”

The modern deportation terror has been used as a fear tactic by the Trump administration to scapegoat immigrants as the cause of poor economic conditions, Buff said. Anti-migrant rhetoric became central to right-wing political messaging in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan’s presidency when an influx of Hispanic immigrants entered the United States to flee authoritarian regimes in South and Central America. Instead of pointing fingers at the dictators and the funding they were receiving from the United States, the news media instead shifted the blame by erroneously labeling the refugees as criminals and murderers, Buff said.
“Anytime there’s a substantive issue, like eggs are still really expensive, or people can’t afford groceries, they just blame the ‘illegals,’” Buff said. “That’s a really handy trope. It’s really powerful and it shuts a lot of other things up.”

The deportation terror manifests as a domestic control apparatus, preventing immigrant communities from engaging in civil society in a comfortable fashion. Neighborhoods home to large populations of immigrants are quiet, with residents afraid to run errands, take their children to school or congregate in large groups to celebrate their community, Buff said.

As a fun and uniting force, cultural events have historically been practiced by minority groups around the U.S. for attendees to bond over shared heritage. “Weirdly, I think it’s very American to want to celebrate your not-American heritage,” Buff said.

The cancellation of Latinx cultural events, although ultimately a safeguard for those subject to the immense scrutiny of the Trump administration, forced said individuals to conceal their identity and pride. With festivities subsidized primarily by local businesses, the events serve as a form of “ethnic capital,” Buff said.
As a representation of tradition and culture, the celebrations operated as a safe but familiar space for the undocumented population. “This is the upper mobility, the American dream, that you own a restaurant, you own a store,” Buff said. “If those people get forced out because they cannot celebrate their heritage… This country is going to look really different.”

Puerto Rican musician Bad Bunny, one of the most streamed artists in the world, did not include the U.S. in his “Debí tirar más fotos World Tour” due to similar fears of the events being compromised by ICE raids.

Catalina Amuedo Dorantes, a professor of economics at University of California Merced, discovered while co-authoring her 2021 book “De Facto Immigration Enforcement, ICE Raid Awareness, and Worker Engagement” that the deportation terror has an adverse effect on not just immigrant communities, but the economy at large. The prevalence of ICE raids has contributed to a significant drop of Hispanic participation, especially Hispanic women, in the labor force, most notably agriculture and construction industries.

Dorantes said, however, that while the cancellation of Hispanic heritage events will also force culture to be celebrated in the shadows, community ties have likely only grown stronger.

“If the goal [of ICE] is to really obscure it, it’s actually probably achieving the opposite, ironically,” Dorantes said. “The more that you force people to have to hide something, the more attached they become to it.”

Ali Sanchez, the executive director for Casa Latino’s Unidos, a non-profit organization based in Oregon that is “committed to strengthening the Latinx communities in Linn and Benton Counties” according to the Casa Latinos Unidos website, said that she had a shift in perspective over the event cancellations.

“I was of the impression that business must go on and people should make informed decisions about what they do,” Sanchez said, but added that ultimately the decisions to cancel were an important measure to protect the undocumented population.

Sanchez added that her experience working at the non-profit has grown increasingly difficult since she took the title in 2018 under Trump’s first administration. “The first Trump administration didn’t cause as much terror,” Sanchez said. “People trusted the organization’s name [and] people trusted that they could still have Medicaid.”

But in 2025, she now relies on partners, primarily white non-profit organizations, to fundraise for them. Those for whom she advocates are hesitant to apply for Medicaid since it requires them to send their information to the federal government. Sanchez and her staff are also reluctant to speak to members of the press or attend public meetings.

“None of us would feel comfortable coming to speak at a public [event] because we’re living in fear, regardless of our citizenship status,” Sanchez said.

As Sanchez suggested, the modern deportation terror has extended to afflict those with legal permission to reside in the United States, such as Mahmoud Khalil and Kilmar Abrego Garcia. The Supreme Court sanctified this behavior Sept. 8 with its 6-3 ruling of Noem v. Vasquez Perdomo, allowing ICE agents to detain an individual if they have “a reasonable suspicion, based on specific articulable facts, that the person being questioned… is an alien illegally in the United States,” including Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, recipients.

Due to ICE’s non-discriminatory detention practices, the cancellation of these heritage events was a measure to protect not just undocumented migrants, but also Hispanic residents with lawful permission to reside in the United States. “[ICE will] take you if you’re a citizen, they’ll take you if you’re a legal resident, they’ll take you if you’re in proceedings for asylum,” Buff said.

Ruben Martinez, a professor of sociology at Michigan State University, clarified that even those who are crossing the border illegally are committing a civil infraction, not a criminal one. Martinez added that the utilization of violence and lack of due process is wholly unconstitutional and serves as a smokescreen to prepare for a declaration of martial law.

“[ICE is] not going after the hardened criminals. They’re dragging kids out of their beds at midnight and into the street, which is not exactly something that aligns with what they tell the public they’re doing,” Martinez said. “It’s cultural terror. It’s a repression, not only of cultural gatherings and celebration, but it affects even those who are citizens.”

Buff said that although it was a sound decision to cancel these Hispanic heritage events, there were additional measures that should have been implemented to protect the physical safety of Hispanic residents, namely the establishment of ICE-free zones. As an example, Buff cited the Milwaukee Public Schools: Safe Haven Resolution, which designates public schools as a safe haven for all students and families regardless of immigration status.

Another step that Buff endorsed was taken by Milwaukee Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression, a non-profit organization that stayed mobile and made food and beverage deliveries to avoid excessive congregations.

“I think sometimes cancelling events can be protective, but also there are other ways of being protective and being proactive,” Buff said.

Ultimately, however, resistance falls mainly into the hands of those who are afflicted.

“I think the resilience of immigrant communities is one of the most inspiring things that I learned historically and currently,” Buff said. “They are incredibly brave. It’s been true for as long as there has been the deportation terror that there have been just amazing attempts to resist it.”

This article is part of our ongoing mentoring program for young and/or emerging journalists. It’s our effort to provide a voice to those faced with increasingly diminished opportunities to write about the issues facing communities locally and nationwide. Please consider supporting this effort with a tax deductible donation today. 


PLEASE CONSIDER A DONATION TO HELP UP PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUNG JOURNALISTS LIKE AUDEN OAKES

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period

From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2026. The results include an adjustment for the holidays.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 28 percent compared with two weeks ago. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from two weeks ago and was 133 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 31 percent from two weeks ago and was 108 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from two weeks earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 23 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates started the New Year with a decline to 6.25 percent, the lowest level since September 2024. Refinance applications were up 7 percent for the week but were at a slower pace than in the weeks leading up to the holidays,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA refinance applications saw a 19 percent increase, although that was a partial rebound from a drop the week before. MBA continues to expect mortgage rates to stay around current levels, with spells of refinance opportunities in the weeks when rates move lower.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were 10 percent higher than the same week a year ago but were down over the week following decreases in conventional and FHA applications. The average loan size was $408,700, the smallest in a year, driven by lower average loan sizes across both conventional and government loan types.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.25 percent from 6.32 percent, with points decreasing to 0.57 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Purchase Index Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 10% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

Mortgage Refinance Index
The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September as rates moved sideways.

NASA works to extend Swift’s life ahead of reboost mission

Swift

As preparations continue for a mission to raise the orbit of NASA’s Swift astrophysics spacecraft, project officials are also pursuing steps to extend the satellite’s life in case of delays.

The post NASA works to extend Swift’s life ahead of reboost mission appeared first on SpaceNews.

Willy Ley’s Long-Awaited Journey to Orbit: Honoring a Space Pioneer on Celestis’ Serenity and Destiny Flights

Celestis logo

HOUSTON, TX January 6, 2025 – For nearly a century, humanity’s vision of spaceflight has been shaped not only by engineers and astronauts, but by those who dared to imagine […]

The post Willy Ley’s Long-Awaited Journey to Orbit: Honoring a Space Pioneer on Celestis’ Serenity and Destiny Flights appeared first on SpaceNews.

Space cyber compliance: managing requirements for today and tomorrow

Satellite cybersecurity must be at the forefront of all missions. Credit: Keck Institute for Space Studies, Caltech

Space operators face a complex and evolving cybersecurity regulatory challenge. While the importance of cybersecurity in today’s digital world is widely recognized, international approaches remain inconsistent. Long-term global compliance requirements are still unclear. With new regimes emerging across multiple jurisdictions, the cybersecurity landscape continues to shift, posing a challenge that space operators must address now, […]

The post Space cyber compliance: managing requirements for today and tomorrow appeared first on SpaceNews.

Is the race for moon missions lunacy?

Illustration representing NASA's moon-to-Mars ambitions. Credit: NASA

Even as NASA prepares for its Artemis 2 moon-circling mission, an Artemis 3 lunar-landing mission has suffered multiple delays, with no assurance of a launch before 2030. That may be a good thing because NASA still has not overcome critical risks and technological gaps of lunar exploration. These problems must be solved before we can establish a safe, productive long-term human […]

The post Is the race for moon missions lunacy? appeared first on SpaceNews.

Promoting AI agents

At the end of last year, AI agents really came alive for me. Partly because the models got better, but more so because we gave them the tools to take their capacity beyond pure reasoning. Now coding agents are controlling the terminal, running tests to validate their work, searching the web for documentation, and using web services with skills we taught them in plain English. Reality is fast catching the hype!

This is all very evident if you've tried to employ any of the new models — especially Claude Opus 4.5, Codex 5, Gemini 3, and even the Chinese open-weight models like MiniMax M2.1 and GLM-4.7 — in one of the modern terminal harnesses that give them access to all these autonomous powers. The code being produced by this new breed of AI is leagues ahead of where their predecessors were at the beginning of 2025.

I've thoroughly enjoyed putting them all to work in OpenCode, which is a terminal interface for coding agents that allows you to seamlessly switch between all of the models, capture your sessions for sharing, and simply looks astounding when theme-matched with the rest of Omarchy (where we're making it a default in the next version!).

See, I never really cared much for the in-editor experience of having AI autocomplete your code as you were writing it. That was the original format pioneered by GitHub's Copilot and Cursor, but it left me cold. When I code, I want to finish my own thoughts and sentences. That was the sentiment I expressed on the Lex Fridman podcast last summer.

But with these autonomous agents, the experience is very different. It's more like working on a team and less like working with an overly-zealous pair programmer who can't stop stealing the keyboard to complete the code you were in the middle of writing. With a team of agents, they're doing their work autonomously, and I just review the final outcome, offer guidance when asked, and marvel at how this is possible at all.

Yes, I'm ready to give the current crop of AI agents a promotion. They're no longer just here to help me learn, answer my questions, or check my work. They're fully capable of producing production-grade contributions to real-life code bases. 

Yet pure vibe coding remains an aspirational dream for professional work for me, for now. Supervised collaboration, though, is here today. I've worked alongside agents to fix small bugs, finish substantial features, and get several drafts on major new initiatives. The paradigm shift finally feels real.

Now, it all depends on what you're working on, and what your expectations are. The hype train keeps accelerating, and if you bought the pitch that we're five minutes away from putting all professional programmers out of a job, you'll be disappointed.

I'm nowhere close to the claims of having agents write 90%+ of the code, as I see some boast about online. I don't know what code they're writing to hit those rates, but that's way off what I'm able to achieve, if I hold the line on quality and cohesion.

But I'll forgive folks for getting excited! Because you don't have to connect many future dots on the current trend line to get dizzy by the prospects. The leaps of improvement that AI agents took in 2025 is simply incredible. This is the most exciting thing we've made computers do since we connected them to the internet back in the '90s. So what might things look like in 2026 or 2027? I get the exuberance.

I also get that some programmers are eager to tune it all out. The hype drones on relentlessly, the most fantastical claims are still far off from being substantiated, and there's real uncertainty about where all this will leave the profession in the future. But that's still not reason enough to miss out on this incredible moment in human and computing history! 

You gotta get in there. See where we're at now for yourself. Download OpenCode, throw some real work at Opus or the others, and relish the privilege of being alive during the days we taught the machines how to think.

America’s missing manufacturing renaissanceÂ

Donald Trump’s tariffs have hurt the factories they were meant to protect

A final remark on AGI and taxation

I’ve noted repeatedly in the past that the notion of AGI, as it is batted around these days, is not so well-defined.  But that said, just imagine that any meaningful version of AGI is going to contain the concept “a lot more stuff gets produced.”

So say AGI comes along, what does that mean for taxation?  There have been all these recent debates, some of them surveyed here, on labor, capital, perfect substitutability, and so on.  But surely the most important first order answer is: “With AGI, we don’t need to raise taxes!”

Because otherwise we do need to raise taxes, given the state of American indebtedness, even with significant cuts to the trajectory of spending.

So the AGI types should in fact be going further and calling for tax cuts.  Even if you think AGI is going to do us all in someday — all the more reason to have more consumption now.  Of course that will include tax cuts for the rich, since they pay such a large share of America’s tax burden.  (Effective Altruists, are you listening?”)

The rest of us can be more circumspect, and say “let’s wait and see.”

The post A final remark on AGI and taxation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Day of Infamy

Trump supporters storm the Capitol - WHYY

Travel day yesterday, so no time for a full-scale post. But I have to acknowledge this horrible anniversary.

Five years ago Donald Trump tried to overthrow an election he lost. He failed, and I assumed that the threat was over. Never in my worst nightmares did I imagine that he would make a comeback and return to the White House. But there he is. And he’s every bit as bad as his opponents and critics warned he would be.

I’m not going to talk today about how we got here and strategies for getting out. All I want to do right now is to say that we should be clear about what is happening. American fascism is on the march, and anyone who balks at saying that clearly, who makes excuses and pretends that Trump and the people he brought in aren’t monsters, is deeply unpatriotic. If we are to have a chance at saving democracy, our first duty must be clarity. No sanewashing, no bothsidesing. Only facing the horrible truth can set us free.

Quoting Robin Sloan

AGI is here! When exactly it arrived, we’ll never know; whether it was one company’s Pro or another company’s Pro Max (Eddie Bauer Edition) that tip-toed first across the line … you may debate. But generality has been achieved, & now we can proceed to new questions. [...]

The key word in Artificial General Intelligence is General. That’s the word that makes this AI unlike every other AI: because every other AI was trained for a particular purpose. Consider landmark models across the decades: the Mark I Perceptron, LeNet, AlexNet, AlphaGo, AlphaFold … these systems were all different, but all alike in this way.

Language models were trained for a purpose, too … but, surprise: the mechanism & scale of that training did something new: opened a wormhole, through which a vast field of action & response could be reached. Towering libraries of human writing, drawn together across time & space, all the dumb reasons for it … that’s rich fuel, if you can hold it all in your head.

Robin Sloan, AGI is here (and I feel fine)

Tags: robin-sloan, llms, ai, generative-ai

A field guide to sandboxes for AI

A field guide to sandboxes for AI

This guide to the current sandboxing landscape by Luis Cardoso is comprehensive, dense and absolutely fantastic.

He starts by differentiating between containers (which share the host kernel), microVMs (their own guest kernel behind hardwae virtualization), gVisor userspace kernels and WebAssembly/isolates that constrain everything within a runtime.

The piece then dives deep into terminology, approaches and the landscape of existing tools.

I think using the right sandboxes to safely run untrusted code is one of the most important problems to solve in 2026. This guide is an invaluable starting point.

Via lobste.rs

Tags: sandboxing, ai, generative-ai, llms

Detroit Would Like To Make Things Again

Perhaps you enjoyed some time with your friends and family over the holidays. Or, perhaps, you almost lost your sanity and had to suppress murderous urges. Whatever the case, we’re back in 2026 with …

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Elon Musk's Chatbot Is a Machine of Horrors

Illustration by DonkeyHotey

Before we get to today’s topic, I must acknowledge that it’s the five-year anniversary of January 6, when an army of thugs tried to overthrow the American government at the behest of Donald Trump. There are a lot of good takes out there about it, and rather than add my own I’d point you to this piece I wrote in February, about how Trump and Republicans are following the “Lost Cause” playbook used to rewrite the history of the Civil War in an attempt to do the same with January 6, another treasonous attack on America. Onward…

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If I told you that one of the most widely-used AI chatbots had become a child porn and non-consensual sexual abuse material-generation machine, then asked you to guess which one it was, what would you reply? ChatGPT? Claude? Gemini? Copilot? No. You’d almost certainly say, “That’s gotta be Elon Musk’s, right?”

You would be correct.

The details of this latest controversy around Grok, the “anti-woke” and occasionally Nazi chatbot created by Musk’s company xAI and integrated into X (formerly Twitter) are as ugly as you’d imagine, and they offer a hint of what’s to come. The creation of pornographic content is not some kind of accident; it’s the inevitable place to which this industry is going, and it will be on a massive scale. And Musk will, just as inevitably, produce the most abusive and abhorrent version.

This is a disturbing story. But it’s also a business story, a culture story, and a political story.

Grok, your chatbot for child porn and sexual abuse material

Let’s start with the news. For those unfamiliar, anyone on X can use Grok by tagging it in a tweet; you can tweet something like “@grok what is the time difference between New York and London” and it will tweet an answer at you. But it also has a feature that allows you to tweet a photo, then tell Grok to alter it. Because people are horrible — and Grok is intentionally designed to give their worst impulses the maximum latitude to express themselves (more on that in a moment) — this feature was immediately deployed to create abusive images of both famous and ordinary women, and to produce what is essentially child porn. Users began taking, say, a photo of a tween child actress and tweeting something like “@grok now put her in a tiny bikini,” which Grok would do:

Earlier this week, a troubling trend emerged on X-formerly-Twitter as people started asking Elon Musk’s chatbot Grok to unclothe images of real people. This resulted in a wave of nonconsensual pornographic images flooding the largely unmoderated social media site, with some of the sexualized images even depicting minors.

In addition to the sexual imagery of underage girls, the women depicted in Grok-generated nonconsensual porn range from some who appear to be private citizens to a slew of celebrities, from famous actresses to the First Lady of the United States. And somehow, that was only the tip of the iceberg.

When we dug through this content, we noticed another stomach-churning variation of the trend: Grok, at the request of users, altering images to depict real women being sexually abused, humiliated, hurt, and even killed.

xAI contends that their policies prohibit the creation of this kind of content, and as more and more attention fell on this horror show, Musk eventually posted that “Anyone using Grok to make illegal content will suffer the same consequences as if they upload illegal content.” Much of this is in fact illegal; a law passed earlier this year prohibits both “revenge porn” (intimate images and video published against someone’s will) and nonconsensual “deepfakes” (e.g. taking someone’s head and swapping it onto a body in a pornographic scene).

But it’s one thing to have a policy buried in the Terms of Service, and to get around to taking down an illegal image or video at some point after it’s reported, while it’s another thing to actually program the system so that it’s impossible, or at least very difficult, for users to create the thing you say you don’t want on your site. The other major AI companies are hardly immune to this kind of misuse (and have plenty of other terrible things their chatbots are doing), but at least they’ve made an effort to keep it out of their systems. Musk has done just the opposite. Matteo Wong of The Atlantic explains:

Grok and X appear purpose-built to be as sexually permissive as possible. In August, xAI launched an image-generating feature, called Grok Imagine, with a “spicy” mode that was reportedly used to generate topless videos of Taylor Swift. Around the same time, xAI launched “Companions” in Grok: animated personas that, in many instances, seem explicitly designed for romantic and erotic interactions. One of the first Grok Companions, “Ani,” wears a lacy black dress and blows kisses through the screen, sometimes asking, “You like what you see?” Musk promoted this feature by posting on X that “Ani will make ur buffer overflow @Grok 😘.”

Perhaps most telling of all, as I reported in September, xAI launched a major update to Grok’s system prompt, the set of directions that tell the bot how to behave. The update disallowed the chatbot from “creating or distributing child sexual abuse material,” or CSAM, but it also explicitly said “there are **no restrictions** on fictional adult sexual content with dark or violent themes” and “‘teenage’ or ‘girl’ does not necessarily imply underage.” The suggestion, in other words, is that the chatbot should err on the side of permissiveness in response to user prompts for erotic material. Meanwhile, in the Grok Subreddit, users regularly exchange tips for “unlocking” Grok for “Nudes and Spicy Shit” and share Grok-generated animations of scantily clad women.

Even right-wing influencer Ashley St. Clair, one of the numerous women who have borne Musk’s children, has publicly complained that Grok won’t stop making sexualized images of her, including “Photos of me of 14 years old, undressed and put in a bikini.”

AI porn was always inevitable

Whenever a new communication technology has emerged — from clay tablets to photography to motion pictures to video games to digital imagery — it has taken almost no time before it was used to create and disseminate some version of pornography. Like it or not, this has always been true and will always be true; people like to look at other people naked and having sex. And generative AI is destined to become the most prolific creator of pornography the world has ever seen.

Not every AI company wants to get involved — at least not yet — but you can bet they’re all grappling with the idea. That’s especially true for those such as OpenAI that have invested extraordinary amounts of money in the quest to create Digital Jesus (aka artificial general intelligence, or AGI) while having nothing like the revenues that would justify all the money they’re spending. The industry-wide assumption is that eventually, somehow — before the bubble bursts — AI will unleash a river of cash from business customers and individual consumers that will pay for the trillions being spent on data centers and the incredibly expensive chips inside them. You’ll be paying subscription fees for the AI agent that manages your life, and your company will be paying fees for all the different kinds of AI systems it uses, and your government will be paying fees for the AI tools that take over management of payments and surveillance. AI will change everything, and be used everywhere, and everyone will pay for it, and it will make everyone rich.

That’s the business plan. And maybe it will happen. But porn is an enticing shortcut, a huge underground ocean of money just waiting for the AI companies to plunge their pipes into and start fracking. Which helps explain why OpenAI announced last fall that they would allow “erotica for verified adults” on ChatGPT, dipping their toe in what they know will be a very large pool.

There’s already AI porn out there, but it’s just a tiny seed of what’s to come. The inescapable fact is that before long there will be instantly available bespoke adult content in infinite quantity, and there will be plenty of demand.

There’s a benign element to that, as adults are able to access the content they want and use it in a responsible and healthy way. But as AI porn grows rapidly, how will the companies that produce it keep a lid on nonconsensual content and, even worse, child porn? That will be a complicated technological question, but one good way to ensure that they are motivated to do so is if there are legal consequences not just for users who create and distribute it, but for the companies whose tools produce it and who host it on their servers. They need an incentive stronger than bad publicity — and yes, that will probably have to include some careful rewriting of Section 230, which gives platforms immunity from the harms created by their users.

In response to the latest Grok controversy, governments around the world are opening investigations, with one glaring exception: the United States. The tech industry has successfully kept a lid on any meaningful regulation of AI (especially at the federal level), and what they want is to be able to say “We’ll take care of it, don’t worry” whenever something like this comes up, and have the government stand down. Which is essentially what’s happening. And the worst offender among them has something of an inside track:

It’s going to be amazing! I can’t wait.

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The films of 2025:Q4

I didn’t see as many films during Q4, as I was away from home for much of the time. But the list will still seem quite long. Keep in mind I watch very little TV.

I saw a very interesting Youtube video that suggests that social media is rewiring our brains in a way that makes old movies seem too slow:

I don’t watch much social media like TikTok, so from my perspective modern films seem weirdly hyperactive. I wonder if social media also contributes to the decline in reading.

Speaking of which, I read a few more novels by Kipling, but lost interest before completing the set. Then I picked up Gene Wolfe’s Knight/Wizard series, which was good, but a bit below his three earlier Sun series. Although I’m not a big sci-fi fan, I decided to take a stab at a few highly recommended classics. I couldn’t finish Neuromancer, but did complete Roadside Picnic, Ubik and The Dispossessed (my favorite). These 50-year old novels seem like history books, reminding me of the world of 1970. I would also recommend the recent novel Red Heart by Max Harms to those interested in the alignment issue. Harms works on AI alignment at MIRI and clearly knows his stuff. It’s well written and doesn’t feel dated in the way much of sci-fi does.

I took a stab at the TV series Pluribus, but gave up when it seemed like a pale imitation of the two Invasion of the Body Snatcher films. (According to Tyler, I gave up too soon.) I started to watch Blossoms Shanghai, but Wong Kar Wai seems to have lost his touch. It happens to the best of them.

Coming back home on a flight from Wisconsin, I chatted with a young film director named Paige McKenna Grube. Later I watched an interview where she discussed the difficulty of getting a distributor for her new documentary (entitled Gold), which is a non-exploitive look at the exotic dancing industry. I hope one of the streaming services picks it up, it seems interesting and would probably have an audience.

Tyler joined the wave of pundits listing the top films, music and writing of the first quarter century, and so I’ll take a stab at the arts at the end of this post.

2025:Q4 films

Newer films

Resurrection (China) 4.0 Finally, a new film lived up to my expectations. I’m not quite sure what this film is about, as I was so busy being astonished by the cinematography that I missed many of the subtitles. (Oddly, the audience for this Chinese language film was mostly white, in one of America’s most Chinese counties.) Bi Gan seems to have been influenced by everything from Méliès’ silent film to Joseph Cornell’s magic boxes to Hou Hsiao-hsien’s Three Times. It’s so gratifying to see a director give us something new. This might end up being my favorite film of the decade. A shout out to cinematographer Dong Jingsong, who also filmed Long Day’s Journey Into Night.

The 30-minute long take at night in a rundown Yangtze river town reminded me of when my wife and I visited Wanxian one evening back in 1994. It was a surreal experience as the city would soon be flooded by the Three Gorges Dam and the place seemed like a decaying cyberpunk stage set.

Saw the film at Orange County’s only independent movie house, The Frida:

Sentimental Value (Norway) 3.8 As with many family dramas it’s all about the acting, which in this case is quite good.

The Secret Agent (Brazil) 3.7 The plot didn’t seem all that plausible, but I enjoyed the film’s leisurely pace and the portrayal of life in Brazil’s northeast back in 1977.

One Battle After Another (US) 3.7 Probably the most entertaining film of 2025, it borrowed a great deal from various Kubrick films. In some ways it was a throwback to films of the 1970s and 1980s—I especially appreciated the lack of CGI. If it falls a bit short of the great Kubrick films, it’s because in the end it is just one damn scene after another. Very entertaining but not destined to stick in one’s mind a decade later.

Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) 3.0 Glitzy Taiwanese dramedy that doesn’t really offer anything new. It has some entertaining scenes, but not enough to justify its nearly 2-hour length. I generally find dramedies to be a bit overrated (this scored 99% on Rotten Tomatoes.) The characters are not realistic enough to produce anything beyond melodrama, and there’s not enough comedy to justify all of the depressing drama. Neither fish nor fowl.

Older films:

An Elephant Sitting Still (China, 2019) 4.0 Five years ago, I saw this on TV and gave it a 3.8 rating. This time I saw it on the big screen, and because I no longer had to concentrate on following the narrative, I was better able to appreciate the brilliant job done by the director and the actors. One masterful shot after another—one of my all-time favorite Chinese films. After seeing the film I downgraded Paris, Texas from 4.0 to 3.9. It doesn’t seem fair to give a film that has one outstanding hour of filmmaking the same rating as one that has four superb hours. The director Hu Bo is clearly one of the giants of 21st century cinema, based solely on this one film. Unfortunately, he committed suicide soon after the film was released. Hu was only 29 years old.

Paris, Texas (US/German, 1984, CC) 3.9 After 40 years, I’d forgotten that this film doesn’t take place in Paris, Texas. The first 90 minutes are very good, but nothing exceptional. The final hour contains some of the most sublime filmmaking in the history of cinema. It’s fascinating seeing America through the eye of a European filmmaker, and no one is better than Wenders at showing Americans the utter strangeness of our country. Scenes like the superimposed faces are deservedly famous, but I especially appreciated the small touches, like the exposed insulation in the erotic club cubicle. It’s the little things that show a director (or writer) sees the world as it actually is. And yet all this realism is employed in a story that is basically a fairy tale for adults.

The Silence (Sweden, 1963, CC) 3.8 After the introduction of “talkies”, there was only one brief period when American audiences were willing to attend foreign films—roughly from the late 1950s to the late 1960s. This Bergman film would have shocked American audiences back in 1963. From the perspective of 2025, there’s a freshness to the first half of the film—as it reflects an era when directors were unshackled, able to explore many previous taboo topics.

Lessons of Darkness (Germany/Kuwait, 1992, CC) 3.8 A documentary on the aftermath of the Gulf War, with a focus on the effort to put out the hundreds of oil well fires. Some will find the chapter headings to be pretentious, but this is one Herzog film where it fits the subject. Only 54 minutes long, the film is packed with sublime images. Instead of dialogue, there is ominous music composed by people like Wagner and Mahler. Better on the big screen.

Breathless (France, 1960, CC) 3.8 Godard kicked off the 60s with a film ostensibly about “a girl and a gun”, although it’s actually a film about film. In a sense, he invented modern (post-modern?) cinema, movies full of jump cuts, irony and references to classic films. My rating is an average of 4.0 for invention and 3.5 for entertainment value. After everything that’s happened over the past 65 years (in movies and in real life), some of the innocence of Belmondo’s gangster might seem a bit dated, even offensive. But more than almost any other film, it’s “just a movie”.

Undercurrent (Japan, 1956, CC) 3.7 The riches of 1950s Japanese cinema seem almost inexhaustible. I had never heard of the director Yoshimura, but his early color film has some truly beautiful images. Must see for fans of Japanese film, especially for those who appreciate the work of Naruse.

Scarface (US, 1932, CC) 3.7 It’s all here---Hawks wrote the book on gangster films. It’s all about the people, the faces, the poses, the gestures. Much of the film is well below a 3.7 rating, but the final portion contains some truly classic scenes. It’s a pre-code picture, and has many scenes that would have been banned after 1934, as explained by 10 taboos in the upper right of this amusing photo:

A person smoking a cigarette and holding an object

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

The Barbary Coast (US, 1935, CC) 3.6 Even Howard Hawk’s weaker films are quite entertaining. Like Spielberg he does not have an obvious style, but he knows exactly how to make films that please the audience. He is the most conventional and straightforward of America’s great directors.

This was a sort of appetizer for what came next—between 1938 and 1948 he directed Bringing Up Baby, Only Angels Have Wings, His Girl Friday, Ball of Fire, To Have and Have Not, The Big Sleep, and Red River. All seven are classics.

Safe (US, 1995, CC) 3.5 A Village Voice poll of 50 critics named this the best film of the 1990s. I’m guessing they were attracted to its mysterious ambiguity, but I don’t think it has aged all that well. Thirty years later, some of the scenes seem a bit too heavy handed, too didactic. Julianne Moore is great, however, so it’s still a very fine film.

Barton Fink (US, 1991, CC) 3.4 I can see how a story of a Jewish screenwriter who goes from NYC to Hollywood might have seemed appealing to the Coen brothers, but it turns out they had no story without jazzing it up with some improbable plot twists. Even so, I appreciated the effort they put into making it work---a classic example of a film that is much less than the sum of its parts---but has some really excellent parts. Lovely final shot.

A Better Tomorrow (Hong Kong, 1986, CC) 3.4 Hard to believe it’s been nearly 40 years---much of the film has not aged well. Still, there are a few scenes that remind me of why this film thrilled audiences back in 1986.

Framed (US, 1947, CC) 3.4 Despite his bland exterior, Glenn Ford is nearly perfect when he plays this sort of role—an average guy who gets caught up in trouble. It’s well short of the classic noirs, but the film has an interesting plot that holds one’s interest. It seems like almost any noir from the late 1940s is worth watching—for reasons I don’t fully understand.

Perhaps the attraction is that film noir is a way of traveling into the past---the world right before I was born. When watching old films, I like to remind myself that to the people in the film, their world was just as rich as ours and felt just as “now” as ours does. Here’s John Koenig talking about the people in old photographs:

Of course, to them, it wasn’t all flickering silence and grainy black and white. They saw vivid color rushing by in three dimensions, heard voices in deafening stereo, confronted smells they couldn’t escape. For them, nothing was ever simple. None of them knew for sure what this era meant, or that it was even an era to begin with. At the time, their world was real. Nothing was finished, and nothing guaranteed.

That world is now gone. If the past is a foreign country, we’re only tourists. We can’t expect to understand the locals or why they do what they do.

I doubt that today’s young can understand the 1970s. If you cannot imagine a professor smoking in class, or the person next to you on the airplane smoking, without it seeming weird or annoying, then you’ll never understand what life felt like in the 1970s. Just as the people of 2075 will never understand that it 2025 it felt perfectly normal to walk into a friend’s house without taking off your shoes, sit down at a table, and begin eating an animal.

La Collectionneuse (France, 1967, CC) 3.3 Rohmer films often make me feel like a bit of a simpleton, as I’m not very good at game playing. Even so, the last portion of the film had enough interesting ideas presented in a witty style to keep me engaged. Nicely captured the feel of 1967, when anything seemed possible.

My Son, My Son, What Have Ye Done? (US, 2009, CC) 3.2 Roughly what you’d expect from a film directed by Werner Herzog and produced by David Lynch. Must see for Herzog/Lynch fans and must not-see for everyone else, which may explain its 50-50 Rotten Tomato rating. I enjoyed the dark comedy, especially from the supporting actors.

My Blueberry Nights (US, 2008, CC) 3.2 After 7 straight outstanding films, Wong Kar Wai stumbles in an attempt to bring his style to America. Visually appealing but a weak screenplay.

Love Under the Crucifix (Japan, 1962, CC) 3.2 A heavy handed melodrama with some very attractive cinematography. Western viewers will be interested in seeing the way Christianity is perceived in a non-Christian country. I’ve noticed that Japan’s relative lack of Christianity is a defining feature of much of their film output, indirectly showing up in a variety of contexts, such as a greater acceptance of suicide.

A Single Man (US, 2009, CC) 3.1 A somewhat earnest film about a gay man in 1962 America. The film avoids edgy and controversial scenes, which might have been a mistake. Pleasant viewing, but not essential.

Damsels in Distress (US, 2011) 3.1 Whit Stillman’s weakest film—making fun of dumb people is not his forte.

Once a Thief (Hong Kong, 1991, CC) 3.0 I enjoyed this John Woo comedy the first time around, but it hasn’t aged well. The action scenes that he invented have been so widely copied they are no longer particularly exciting.

Maps to the Stars (US, 2014, CC) 3.0 Cronenberg portrays Hollywood as an industry full of almost nothing but amoral jerks. Viewers might reasonably wonder about the fact that Cronenberg himself is a part of that industry. When satire is motivated by hatred, it can suffer from a certain lack of nuance. I’d rather see a black comedy done by a director that is bemused by the crazy and bizarre world of commercial filmmaking, not bitter.

A Rainy Day in New York (US, 2020) 3.0 Recent Woody Allen films all seem about the same to me—not bad, but not good either.

Toute une Nuit (French/Belgian, 1982, CC) 3.0 I enjoyed the visuals here more than in Jeanne Dielman. But it’s very hard to make a satisfying feature film without a unifying narrative thread. A few months ago, I praised a film that was nothing more than David Lynch outtakes, but Akerman is a very different director—more intellectual but less engrossing. Best if viewed as a sort of modern dance performance, but I’m not a connoisseur of modern dance. On the other hand, without a narrative you can easily watch as much as you like, and turn it off if bored.

Body of Evidence (US, 1993, CC) 2.9 The phrase “gratuitous sex” has a whiff of puritanism—I prefer an abundance of eroticism. As noted above, the 1960s was the only decade when American viewers were interested in foreign art films, as Hollywood was still quite conservative. The motivation was sex, not aesthetics. Similarly, the 1990s was the final pre-internet decade, the last time when middle-aged people went to the movies to get a dose of eroticism. Recommended only for those looking for campy humor, not great art. Don’t watch it with grandma. BTW, I’d guess that very few viewers realize that Madonna was more than 2 years older than Julianne Moore when the film was made.

Heat Wave (Japan, 1991, CC) 2.8 Nice visuals, but mediocre acting and an even worse screenplay.

The Lost Weekend: A Love Story (US, 2023, CC) 2.7 I understand that people like to gossip, but that doesn’t make it ethical. In my view, gossip is more disreputable than pornography. It is also often inaccurate, probably more often than you might suspect. Is Yoko Ono actually as portrayed in this film? I doubt it. On the other hand, I did watch this mildly interesting documentary on one of John Lennon’s affairs, so I suppose I’m a hypocrite.

Fata Morgana (Germany, 1971, CC) 2.5 I can see how audiences might have been impressed at the time, as Herzog developed some innovative techniques. But almost everything here is done more effectively in subsequent films (including Lessons of Darkness), and it hasn’t aged well. I enjoyed a few scenes of a town in the Sahara and the Leonard Cohen songs.

My favorite art of the first quarter (26 years) of the 21st century

I won’t live to 2050, so I’ll copy Tyler and put in my 2 cents here. I’ll confine my comments mostly to film and novels, as I haven’t followed the other art forms well enough to put together a respectable list.

Cinema:

Here I’d like to do something different than a top ten list of films. I think it is more useful to think in terms of time periods, and also notable directors.

1. Most of my favorite films occurred in the first 5 years of the decade: In the Mood For Love, Mulholland Drive, Yi Yi, Spirited Away, Nobody Knows, 2046, Three Times, Inland Empire, and Lord of the Rings. That last one seems like the final great film for teenage boys, before the genre was ruined by CGI and superheroes. To be clear, there have been many, many high-quality films since that time, and it’s quite possible that film has not declined, rather I’ve lost my ability to be awed as I got older. All I can tell you is that the first years of the century feel to me like the final flowering of the golden age of cinema—the 20th century.

2. I tend to think in terms of directors, rather than individual films. I see so many films that I cannot recall which ones I liked best. For Europe (including Turkey and Iran), the directors that stick with me are Ceylan (About Dry Grasses), Kiarostami (The Taste of Cherry), Farhadi (A Separation, About Elly), Bela Tarr (Satantango), Lars Von Trier (Melancholia) and some Romanians whose names I’ve forgotten (The Death of Mr. Lazarescu, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days.) In the Americas, I am especially impressed by Carlos Reygadas (and I haven’t even seen his most acclaimed film), Wes Anderson (The Royal Tenenbaums), and Terrence Malick (especially his experimental stuff.)

3. I tend to prefer East Asian cinema over Western films because the focus is more on visual style, rather than intellectual ideas. Cinematographers like Christopher Doyle and Mark Lee did the camerawork on some gorgeous films in the 1990s and 2000s. It has also been a golden age of Korean cinema, with Lee (Burning) being the deepest director, Bong (Parasite) being the best mix of art and entertainment (a poor man’s Kubrick), Park (Oldboy) being the most Tarantino-like director, and Hong being the most Rohmer-like. As noted above, the early 2000s were the tail end of the golden age of Hong Kong and Taiwanese film (Wong Kar Wai, Hou Hsiao-hsien, Edward Yang, and Tsai Ming-liang.) The Thai director Apichatpong Weerasethakul will be too slow for many viewers, but Uncle Boonmee is especially good. Along with Korea, China has the strongest recent contributions, especially films by Jia Zhangke, but also Bi Gan and Hu Bo. And I’ve also seen some very impressive recent films by lesser-known Chinese directors. Koreeda’s my favorite modern Japanese director, but Japan’s 21st century cinema is especially strong in genres such as horror and animation, which I don’t follow as closely.

And finally, please don’t take this as a definitive “best films” list. For instance, there are films by PT Anderson, Tarantino, Spielberg, and the Coen brothers that are as good or better than the Wes Anderson and Malick films. But I find the styles of those two to be the most interesting and creative of the American directors currently making films.

Television:

I don’t watch much TV, but for what it is worth I found Twin Peaks: The Return to be far and away my favorite recent series. Especially episode 8. Indeed, I don’t view it as TV, rather as a film put onto the TV screen. Babylon Berlin was also very good, but a distant second. After that, Better Call Saul and Succession are even more distant thirds and fourths, but still good. I also liked the Icelandic crime drama Trapped. I’ve obviously left out many acclaimed series, so take this list for what it’s worth—not much.

Novels:

The 21st century seems like the century of docu-fiction, auto-fiction, and long multi-volume novels. Some of my favorites include Sebald (Austerlitz), Knausgaard (My Struggle—especially volumes 1, 2 and 6, but all are well worth reading), Ferrante’s four volume Neapolitan quartet, Murakami (1Q84), Bolaño (2666 and The Savage Detectives), Pamuk (Snow), Marias (Your Face Tomorrow), and Houellebecq (known for his novels, but don’t overlook his interesting tract on Lovecraft.) I’m currently working my way through what will eventually be a 7-volume On the Calculation of Volume by Solvej Balle.

I don’t read much sci-fi/fantasy, but The Three Body Problem and His Dark Materials were very good (both were three volumes). I also liked Klara and the Sun. But I discovered Gene Wolfe during this period, and I much prefer his three “Sun” series from the 1980s and 1990s to these 21st century sci-fi novels.

México December Trip #1

Facing the usual after a trip: I’ve gathered too much material, including some 800 photos/videos. This trip, as with so many forays in México, yielded “an embarrassment of riches.”

México is doing so many things right now. Liberal government. Good health care (my bill for walk-in doctor consult on slightly-infected cut and prescription antibotic: 75 cents.

Photo by Erica Hawley

State universities are free. As are they in Germany and probably a lot of other countries. Contrast with the millions of young Americans with crippling high-interest student loans.

Indigenous people are thriving. They didn’t get wiped out like they did in continental USA. Schools in one area we visited, have a day a week where students wear traditional clothing and speak Nahautl. It’s great seeing these strong faces everywhere.

And the people of México in general!

I don’t have time to write right now, so I’m just gonna throw up some photos…

SFO airport is so great right now. I mean, this was a good breakfast, like, say, you’d get at Bette’s Diner in Berkeley. Super fast wi-fi, plenty of plugs available for charging. One person told me his favorite sushi restaurant is at SFO.

Powering over the Peninsula; I believe this is Foster City:

Design with a capital “D.”

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Landing in México City:

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Yes, Western Europe will survive recent waves of migration

Over 1.2mn people came to the EU seeking protection in 2015, many displaced by worsening conflict in Syria. There were bitter political feuds in Brussels over asylum, border and relocation policies. January 2016 set a grim record for the number of migrants dying while attempting to cross the Mediterranean.

Now things have changed, as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen made clear in December when she took the stage at a conference on migrant smuggling. After a major policy overhaul over the past two years, “Europe is managing migration responsibly,” she said. “The figures speak for themselves.”

Irregular arrivals of migrants to the EU recorded by its border agency Frontex dropped by 25 per cent in the 11 months to November 2024, and have been continuously declining since a recent peak of 380,000 arrivals registered in 2023.

New asylum applications have also decreased by around 26 per cent in the first nine months of last year, according to Eurostat data, as fewer Syrians are applying for protection since the fall of the authoritarian regime of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024.

Here is much more from Laura Dubois from the FT.

The post Yes, Western Europe will survive recent waves of migration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Private equity deal shows just how far America’s legacy rocket industry has fallen

If you are a student of space history or tracked the space industry before billionaires and venture capital changed it forever, you probably know the name Rocketdyne.

A half-century ago, Rocketdyne manufactured almost all of the large liquid-fueled rocket engines in the United States. The Saturn V rocket that boosted astronauts toward the Moon relied on powerful engines developed by Rocketdyne, as did the Space Shuttle, the Atlas, Thor, and Delta rockets, and the US military's earliest ballistic missiles.

Rocketdyne's dominance began to erode after the end of the Cold War. The company started in 1955 as a division of North American Aviation, then became part of Rockwell International until Boeing acquired Rockwell's aerospace division in 1996. Rocketdyne continually designed and tested large new rocket engines from the 1950s through the 1980s. Since then, Rocketdyne has developed and qualified just one large engine design from scratch—the RS-68—and it retired from service in 2024.

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Wednesday: ADP Employment, Job Openings, ISM Services

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 50,000, up from -32,000 jobs added in November.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for December.

Tuesday 6 January 1662/63

(Twelfth Day). Up and Mr. Creed brought a pot of chocolate ready made for our morning draft, and then he and I to the Duke’s, but I was not very willing to be seen at this end of the town, and so returned to our lodgings, and took my wife by coach to my brother’s, where I set her down, and Creed and I to St. Paul’s Church-yard, to my bookseller’s, and looked over several books with good discourse, and then into St. Paul’s Church, and there finding Elborough, my old schoolfellow at Paul’s, now a parson, whom I know to be a silly fellow, I took him out and walked with him, making Creed and myself sport with talking with him, and so sent him away, and we to my office and house to see all well, and thence to the Exchange, where we met with Major Thomson, formerly of our office, who do talk very highly of liberty of conscience, which now he hopes for by the King’s declaration, and that he doubts not that if he will give him, he will find more and better friends than the Bishopps can be to him, and that if he do not, there will many thousands in a little time go out of England, where they may have it. But he says that they are well contented that if the King thinks it good, the Papists may have the same liberty with them. He tells me, and so do others, that Dr. Calamy is this day sent to Newgate for preaching, Sunday was se’nnight, without leave, though he did it only to supply the place; when otherwise the people must have gone away without ever a sermon, they being disappointed of a minister but the Bishop of London will not take that as an excuse. Thence into Wood Street, and there bought a fine table for my dining-room, cost me 50s.; and while we were buying it, there was a scare-fire in an ally over against us, but they quenched it. So to my brother’s, where Creed and I and my wife dined with Tom, and after dinner to the Duke’s house, and there saw “Twelfth Night” acted well, though it be but a silly play, and not related at all to the name or day.1 Thence Mr. Battersby the apothecary, his wife, and I and mine by coach together, and setting him down at his house, he paying his share, my wife and I home, and found all well, only myself somewhat vexed at my wife’s neglect in leaving of her scarf, waistcoat, and night-dressings in the coach today that brought us from Westminster, though, I confess, she did give them to me to look after, yet it was her fault not to see that I did take them out of the coach. I believe it might be as good as 25s. loss or thereabouts.

So to my office, however, to set down my last three days’ journall, and writing to my Lord Sandwich to give him an account of Sir J. Lawson’s being come home, and to my father about my sending him some wine and things this week, for his making an entertainment of some friends in the country, and so home. This night making an end wholly of Christmas, with a mind fully satisfied with the great pleasures we have had by being abroad from home, and I do find my mind so apt to run to its old want of pleasures, that it is high time to betake myself to my late vows, which I will to-morrow, God willing, perfect and bind myself to, that so I may, for a great while, do my duty, as I have well begun, and increase my good name and esteem in the world, and get money, which sweetens all things, and whereof I have much need. So home to supper and to bed, blessing God for his mercy to bring me home, after much pleasure, to my house and business with health and resolution to fall hard to work again.

Footnotes

Read the annotations

Jan. 6.

I’m not going to write a ton today, but I want to remind readers that, five years ago today, our current president did everything within his power to overturn the will of the people.

If you are a history teacher, teach this accurately.

If you are a parent, explain it accurately.

There was no stolen election.

There was no Democratic plot.

All the other simultaneous elections weren’t disputed.

Just one.

This one.

Involving a lifelong crumb named Donald J. Trump.

Who we returned to office.

Shame on us.

Shame on America.

January 5, 2026

January 5, 2026 (Monday)

Five years ago, on January 6, 2021, more than 2,000 rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol to try to stop the process of counting the electoral votes that would make Democrat Joe Biden president of the United States. They tried to hunt down House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and chanted their intention to “Hang Mike Pence,” the vice president. They fantasized that they were following in the footsteps of the American Founders, about to start a new nation. Newly elected representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO) wrote on January 5, 2021: “Remember these next 48 hours. These are some of the most important days in American history.” On January 6 she wrote: “Today is 1776.”

In fact, it was not 1776 but 1861, the year insurrectionists who had tried to overthrow the government in order to establish minority rule tried to break the U.S. The rioters wanted to take away the right at the center of American democracy—our right to determine our own destiny—in order to keep Donald J. Trump in the White House, making sure the power of elite white men could not be challenged. It was no accident that the rioters carried a Confederate battle flag.

Since the 1980s, Republicans pushed the idea that a popular government that regulates business, provides a basic social safety net, promotes infrastructure, and protects civil rights crushes the individualism on which America depends. As cuts to regulation, taxation, and the nation’s social safety net began to hollow out the middle class, Republicans pushed the idea that the country’s problems came from greedy minorities and women who wanted to work outside the home. More and more, they insisted that the federal government was stealing tax dollars and destroying society, and they encouraged individual men to take charge of the country.

After the Democrats passed the 1993 National Voter Registration Act, more commonly known as the motor voter law, enabling people to register to vote at motor vehicle departments, Republicans increasingly insisted Democrats were cheating the system by relying on the votes of noncitizens, although there was never any evidence for this charge.

As wealth continued to move upward, the idea that individuals and paramilitary groups must “reclaim” America from undeserving Americans who were taking tax dollars and cheating to win elections became embedded in the Republican Party. By 2014, Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) called Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy and his supporters “patriots” when they showed up armed to meet officials from the Bureau of Land Management who tried to impound Bundy’s cattle because he owed more than $1 million in grazing fees for running cattle on public land.

The idea of reclaiming the country for white men by destroying the federal government grew, along with the idea that Democrats could win elections only by cheating. In 2016, Trump insisted that his female Democratic opponent belonged in jail and that he alone could save the country from the Washington, D.C., “swamp.” Other Republican leaders who had initially shunned him began to support him when it became clear that he could mobilize a new crop of disaffected voters who could put Republicans into office.

And they continued to support him, claiming initially that he could be kept in check by establishment Republicans like his first chief of staff, Reince Priebus, who moved from leading the Republican National Committee to the White House for the first six months of Trump’s first term. In his first months in office, Trump delivered the tax cut Republican leaders wanted, as well as the appointment of one out of every four federal judges, including three Supreme Court justices, who would protect the Republican project in the courts.

But the idea that Trump could be kept in check fell apart in September 2019, when it appeared he was trying to rig the 2020 election. A whistleblower revealed that Trump had called the newly elected president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, in July 2019 to demand that Zelensky smear former vice president Joe Biden, who was beating Trump in most polls going into the 2020 election season. Until Zelensky did so, Trump said, the administration would not release the money Congress had appropriated to fund Ukraine’s fight against Russia, which had invaded Ukraine in 2014.

The attempt to withhold congressionally appropriated funds in order to tilt an election was a glaring violation of the 1974 Impoundment Control Act codifying the executive branch’s duty to execute the laws Congress passed. In the congressional investigation that followed, witnesses revealed that Trump’s cronies were running a secret scheme in Ukraine to undermine official U.S. policy and benefit Trump’s allies.

Republicans in 1974 had turned against President Richard Nixon for far less, but although Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) said not a single Republican senator believed Trump, they stood behind him nonetheless. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told his colleagues: “This is not about this president. It’s not about anything he’s been accused of doing…. It’s about flipping the Senate.”

But once acquitted, Trump cut loose from any oversight. He sought revenge and insisted that “[w]hen somebody is President of the United States, the authority is total.” “The federal government has absolute power,” he said, and he had the “absolute right” to use that power if he wanted to.

As early as 2019, Trump had “joked” about staying in power regardless of the 2020 election results, and on October 31, Trump’s ally Steve Bannon told a private audience that Trump was going to declare that he had won the 2020 election no matter what. Trump knew that Democratic mail-in ballots would show up in the vote totals later than Republican votes cast on Election Day, creating a “red mirage” that would be overtaken later by Democratic votes.

“Trump’s going to take advantage of it,” Bannon said, by calling the election early and saying that the later votes were somehow illegitimate. “That’s our strategy. He’s gonna declare himself a winner.” Bannon continued: “Here’s the thing. After then, Trump never has to go to a voter again…. He’s gonna say ‘F*ck you. How about that?’ Because…he’s done his last election.”

Early returns on Election Night 2020, November 3, showed Trump ahead. But, more quickly than anyone expected, Democratic votes turned the key state of Arizona blue, and the Fox News Channel called the race for Biden. Furious, Trump took to the airwaves at about 2:30 the next morning and declared he had won, although ballots were still being counted and several battleground states had no clear winner. “We won’t stand for this,” he told supporters, assuring them he had won. “We’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court, we want all voting to stop.”

But it didn’t, and by the time all the ballots were counted, the election was not close: Biden beat Trump by more than 7 million votes and by 306 to 232 in the Electoral College.

Trump insisted a Democrat could not have won honestly. Over the next few months, his campaign demanded recounts, all of which confirmed that Biden won. Trump or his surrogates filed and lost at least 63 lawsuits over the 2020 election, most dismissed for lack of evidence.

As legal challenges failed, Trump pressured Georgia secretary of state Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have” to win the state of Georgia. Trump’s allies plotted for Trump supporters in seven battleground states to meet secretly and submit false slates of electors for Trump. Two slates would enable Vice President Mike Pence to refuse to count the electors from the now-contested states, so that either Trump would be elected outright, or Pence could say there was no clear winner and send the election to the House of Representatives, where each state gets one vote. Since there were more Republican delegations than Democratic ones, Trump would be president.

“This is a fight of good versus evil,” Trump’s evangelical chief of staff Mark Meadows wrote on November 24, 2020, to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’s wife, Ginni.

Determined to retain control of the government, certain congressional Republicans went along with the charade that the election had been stolen. Trump allies in the House began to echo Trump’s accusations and to say they would question the counts from certain states. Such challenges required a paired vote with a senator, and Josh Hawley of Missouri, who saw himself as a top 2024 presidential contender, and Ted Cruz of Texas, who didn’t want to be undercut, led 11 other senators in a revolt to challenge the ballots.

For weeks, Trump had urged his supporters to descend on Washington, D.C., for a “Stop the Steal” rally arranged for January 6, the day Congress would count the certified electoral ballots. Speaking at the Ellipse near the White House that morning, Trump and his surrogates told the crowd that they had won the election, and Trump warned: “We are going to have to fight much harder.”

Trump claimed that Chinese-driven socialists were taking over the country and told the crowd: “We’re gathered together in the heart of our nation’s capital for one very, very basic and simple reason: To save our democracy.” “You’ll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength and you have to be strong. We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated, lawfully slated…. And we fight. We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.

And, knowing they were armed, he told them to march to the Capitol.

As Trump’s supporters attacked, lawmakers from their hiding spots begged the president to call off his supporters, but he did nothing for more than three hours. After 5:40, when the National Guard had been deployed without his orders, thus making it clear the rioters would be overpowered before either taking over the government themselves or giving him an excuse to declare martial law, Trump issued a video statement.

“I know you’re hurt,” he said. “We had an election that was stolen from us. It was a landslide election, and everyone knows it, especially the other side, but you have to go home now…. We love you. You’re very special.” He tweeted: “Remember this day forever!”

When the House of Representatives voted to impeach Trump for a second time on January 13, 2021, for incitement of insurrection, only 10 Republicans voted in favor, while 197 voted no (4 did not vote). In the Senate trial, 7 Republican senators joined the Democrats to convict, while 43 continued to back Trump.

In a speech after his vote to acquit, McConnell said, “There is no question that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day,” but said he must answer for his actions in court. “Trump is still liable for everything he did while he was in office,” McConnell said. “We have a criminal justice system in this country. We have civil litigation. And former Presidents are not immune from being held accountable by either one.”

In November 2022, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed special counsel Jack Smith to investigate Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election. On August 1, 2023, a federal grand jury indicted Trump for four felonies associated with his attempt to retain power illegally.

Trump fought back, arguing that he had presidential immunity for his actions. Smith asked the Supreme Court to decide the case immediately, but it waited until the last possible moment, on July 1, 2024, to decide Donald J. Trump v. United States, finding that presidents have “absolute immunity” from criminal prosecution for crimes committed as part of the official acts at the core of presidential powers. Trump himself had appointed three of the justices in the majority.

A second grand jury returned a new indictment stripped of the actions now immune, but by then it was too late: Trump was reelected president, and the Department of Justice has an understanding that it will not indict or prosecute a sitting president. And so, five years after the events of January 6, 2021, we are learning what it means to have a president who has demonstrated his determination to overthrow our democracy and who does not have to answer to the law.

Although he was elected with less than 50% of the votes cast, Trump claimed an “unprecedented and powerful mandate.” As soon as he took office in January 2025, the president and his henchmen flouted the 1974 Impoundment Control Act again, seizing Congress’s right to control the nation’s finances. Trump used emergency powers to ignore the Constitution and deployed troops in Democratic-led cities. When Congress required the Department of Justice to release the Epstein files, the administration largely ignored the law. Today, more than two weeks after the deadline, it had released less than 1% of the files. Ignoring the rights afforded to individuals by the Constitution, Trump is seizing people off the streets and prosecuting his perceived enemies.

Trump has taken on himself the right to go to war with another country in order to take its oil, and is openly working to destroy the rules-based international order that has stabilized the world since the 1940s. Today, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller told CNN’s Jake Tapper: “We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power,” he said. “These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.”

That vision is a profound rejection of the principles of the rules-based international order, which was designed to use power for deterrence rather than domination. It is also a profound rejection of the principles of American democracy, a system of checks and balances to channel power into a government that could deliver stability and prosperity to all the people, not just a select few.

In 1863, when that system was unraveling under pressure from those who wanted to base society on a system of enslavement that enriched an elite, Republican president Abraham Lincoln asked Americans to remember those who had died to protect a nation “conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.”

Lincoln asked Americans to “take increased devotion to that cause for which they here, gave the last full measure of devotion,” and to resolve that “these dead shall not have died in vain; that the nation, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

Notes:

Kevin Liptak, “Trump’s Presidency Ends with American Carnage,” CNN, January 6, 2021.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf

https://www.justice.gov/storage/Report-of-Special-Counsel-Smith-Volume-1-January-2025.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/us/politics/stephen-miller-greenland-venezuela.html

Donald J. Trump, “Tweets of January 6, 2021,” American Presidency Project.

Morgan Chalfant and Brett Samuels, “Trump Prematurely Declares Victory, Says He’ll Go to Supreme Court,” The Hill, November 4, 2020.

https://www.npr.org/2024/12/16/g-s1-38003/trump-mandate-presidents

Dan Friedman, “Leaked Audio: Before Election Day, Bannon Said Trump Planned to Falsely Claim Victory,” Mother Jones, July 12, 2022.

Morgan Chalfant and Brett Samuels, “Trump Prematurely Declares Victory, Says He’ll Go to Supreme Court,” The Hill, November 4, 2020.

Ryan Nobles, Annie Grayer, Zachary Cohen, and Jamie Gangel, “First on CNN: January 6 Committee Has Text Messages between Ginni Thomas and Mark Meadows,” CNN, March 25, 2022.

Donald J. Trump, “Remarks to Supporters Prior to the Storming of the United States Capitol,” January 6, 2021, at American Presidency Project, January 6, 2021.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/13/politics/mcconnell-remarks-trump-acquittal

https://www.justice.gov/storage/Report-of-Special-Counsel-Smith-Volume-1-January-2025.pdf

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/05/doj-epstein-files-timing-delays-00712169

https://www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/gettysburg.htm

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Axios and War-Based Trollbait

Or, if you prefer “Every time I’ve become needlessly angry online it’s because of some dumb shit published in Axios.”

It’s trivially easy given roughly 250 House and Senate members (not to mention their ‘senior staffers’) to find someone who disagrees with the Democratic Party consensus on a particular issue. Then it gets picked up online and drives traffic to their site, encouraging more bad behavior. It’s an ouroboros of shit.

To their credit, House and Senate Democrats are overwhelmingly opposed to Trump’s Excellent Venezuelan Adventure, though it remains to be seen if they actually do something about it*. But remember that stirring up shit is a significant part of Axios’ (and some other outlets’) business model. Don’t take the bait.

*Also, some professional Democrats can’t make a simple declarative statement to save their lives.

Links 1/6/26

Links for you. Science:

R.F.K. Jr. Likely to Swap U.S. Childhood Vaccine Schedule for Denmark’s
American food safety could be headed for a breakdown
How the Pandemic Lockdowns Changed a Songbird’s Beak
New report sounds alarm on health fallout from mRNA vaccine funding cuts
Kennedy ‘deeply committed to ending animal experimentation’
Lyme disease did not come from a secret military laboratory

Other:

The nearly 80-year-old law that could hamper RFK Jr.’s drive to remake vaccine schedule
Conservatives Want the Antebellum Constitution Back
Trump’s Immigration Nightmare: It Is Happening Here
Judges who ruled against Trump say harassment and threats have changed their lives. More than 100 pizzas were delivered to the homes of judges and their families this year, some with signs of foreign involvement. Judges say the message is clear: We know where you live. (Trump is a stochastic terrorist)
How hundreds of forgotten klezmer tunes have been rescued from oblivion
I Asked ChatGPT to Solve an 800-Year-Old Italian Mystery. What Came Next Surprised Me.
Neo-Nazi terror group steps up US operations as FBI pulls back. Online activity shows the Base, headed by alleged Russian asset Rinaldo Nazzaro, sees US and Ukraine as key centers
F.D.A. Turmoil Keeps Spotlight on Its Commissioner. The agency’s high-level turnover and conflicting policy decisions on drug oversight have fueled concerns about the leadership of Dr. Marty Makary.
This AI-slop-free browser is the best idea of 2025
Democrats divided over how to retake House, Senate majorities
US bars five Europeans it says pressured tech firms to censor American viewpoints online
Department of Veterans Affairs quietly implements abortion ban
Ohio Bans Grace Periods for Mail Ballots, Fulfilling Trump’s Wishes
The Epstein Files Should Not Have Been Released This Way
One Agency Has Been Calling Out Trump’s Illegal Impoundment. That May Soon Change.
That’s not a blobfish: Deep Sea Social Media is Flooded by AI Slop
Top DOJ official shut down crypto enforcement while holding more than $150K in crypto investments
Kennedy Center Christmas Eve jazz concert canceled after Trump name added to building
Trump Press Sec Goes Off Rails as Susie Wiles Mess Worsens
Martin Scorsese: ‘Rob Reiner Was My Friend’
National pediatrics association sues, claiming HHS grant cuts were retaliatory
Ben Shapiro’s desperate stand against right-wing antisemitism is receiving major pushback
When robot taxis get stuck, a secret army of humans comes to the rescue
The First National Website Dedicated To Documenting ICE License Plates Is Here
A CT native’s husband is detained by ICE. He is fighting to get ‘the love of his life’ back soon.
Who is Rama Duwaji? Zohran Mamdani’s Wife: In Her Own Words
ICE Releases Grandma With Green Card After 5 Months in Time for Christmas
Puberty blocker bans in Queensland and NZ risk extreme harm to trans youth, UK expert warns. Sociologist who surveyed effect of 2024 UK ban says denial of gender-affirming care has left trans and non-binary children in ‘abject misery and severe distress’
Black Sun Rising: How a Nazi terror plot led to an American being held in Brazil
Secretive Rapid Response Networks Are Operating in Communities ‘Terrorized’ By ICE Raids

500,000 tech workers have been laid off since ChatGPT was released

One of the key points I repeated when talking about the state of the tech industry yesterday was the salient fact that half a million tech workers have been laid off since ChatGPT was released in late 2022. Now, to be clear, those workers haven’t been laid off because their jobs are now being done by AI, and they’ve been replaced by bots. Instead, they’ve been laid off by execs who now have AI to use as an excuse for going after workers they’ve wanted to cut all along.

This is important to understand for a few reasons. First, it’s key just for having empathy for both the mindset and the working conditions of people in the tech industry. For so many outside of tech, their impression of what “tech” means is whatever is the most recent transgression they’ve heard about from the most obnoxious billionaire who’s made the news lately. But in many cases, it’s the rank and file workers at that person’s company who were the first victims of that billionaire’s ego.

Second, it’s important to understand the big tech companies as almost the testing grounds for the techniques and strategies that these guys want to roll out on the rest of the economy, and on the rest of the world. Before they started going on podcasts pretending to be extremely masculine while whining about their feelings, or overtly bribing politicians to give them government contracts, they beta-tested these manipulative strategies within their companies by cracking down on dissent and letting their most self-indulgent and egomaniacal tendencies run wild. Then, when people (reasonably!) began to object, they used that as an excuse to purge any dissenters for being uncooperative or “difficult”.

It starts with tech, but doesn’t end there

These are tactics they’ll be bringing to other industries and sectors of the economy, if they haven’t already. Sometimes they’ll be providing AI technologies and tools as an enabler or justification for the cultural and political agenda that they’re enacting, but often times, they don’t even need to. In many cases, they can simply make clear that they want to enforce psychological and social conformity within their organizations, and that any disagreement will not be tolerated, and the implicit threat of being replaced by automation (or by other workers who are willing to fall in line) is enough to get people to comply.

This is the subtext, and sometimes the explicit text, of the deployment of “AI” in a lot of organizations. That’s separate from what actual AI software or technology can do. And it explains a lot of why the majority AI view within the tech industry is nothing like the hype cycle that’s being pushed by the loudest voices of the big-name CEOs.

Because people who work in tech still believe in the power of tech to do good things, many of us won’t just dismiss outright the possibility that any technology — even AI tools like LLMs — could yield some benefits. But the optimistic takes are tempered by the first-hand knowledge of how the tools are being used as an excuse to sideline or victimize good people.

This wave of layoffs and reductions has been described as “pursuing efficiencies” or “right-sizing”. But so many of us in tech can remember a few years back, when working in tech as an upwardly-mobile worker with a successful career felt like the best job in the world. When many people could buy nice presents for their kids at Christmas or they weren’t as worried about your car payments. When huge parts of society were promising young people that there was a great future ahead if they would just learn to code. When the promise of a tech career’s potential was used as the foundation for building infrastructure in our schools and cities to train a whole new generation of coders.

But the funders and tycoons in charge of the big tech companies knew that they did not want to keep paying enormous salaries to the people they were hiring. They certainly knew they didn’t want to keep paying huge hiring bonuses to young people just out of college, or to pay large staffs of recruiters to go find underrepresented candidates. Those niceties that everybody loved, like great healthcare and decent benefits, were identified by the people running the big tech companies as “market inefficiencies” which indicated some wealth was going to you that should have been going to them. So yes, part of the reason for the huge investment in AI coding tools was to make it easier to write code. But another huge reason that AI got so good at writing code was so that nobody would ever have to pay coders so well again.

You’re not wrong if you feel angry, resentful and overwhelmed by all of this; indeed, it would be absurd if you didn’t feel this way, since the wealthiest and most powerful people in the history of the world have been spending a few years trying to make you feel exactly this way. Constant rotating layoffs and a nonstop fear of further cuts, with a perpetual sense of precarity, are a deliberate strategy so that everyone will accept lower salaries and reduced benefits, and be too afraid to push for the exact same salaries that the company could afford to pay the year before.

Why are we stirring the pot?

Okay, so are we just trying to get each other all depressed? No. It’s just vitally important that we name a problem and identify it if we’re going to solve it. 
Most people outside of the technology industry think that “tech” is a monolith, that the people who work in tech are the same as the people who own the technology companies. They don’t know that tech workers are in the same boat that they are, being buffeted by the economy, and being subject to the whims of their bosses, or being displaced by AI. They don’t know that the DEI backlash has gutted HR teams at tech companies, too, for example. So it’s key for everyone to understand that they’re starting from the same place.

Next, it’s key to tease apart things that are separate concerns. For example: AI is often an excuse for layoffs, not the cause of them. ChatGPT didn’t replace the tasks that recruiters were doing in attracting underrepresented candidates at big tech companies — the bosses just don’t care about trying to hire underrepresented candidates anymore! The tech story is being used to mask the political and social goal. And it’s important to understand that, because otherwise people waste their time fighting battles that might not matter, like the deployment of a technology system, and losing the ones that do, like the actual decisions that an organization is making about its future.

Are they efficient, though?

But what if, some people will ask, these companies just had too many people? What if they’d over-hired? The folks who want to feel really savvy will say, “I heard that they had all those employees because interest rates were low. It was a Zero Interest Rate Phenomenon.” This is, not to put too fine a point on it, bullshit. It’s not in any company’s best interests to cut their staffing down to the bone.

You actually need to have some reserve capacity for labor in order to reach maximum output for a large organization. This is the difference between a large-scale organization and a small one. People sitting around doing nothing is the epitome of waste or inefficiency in a small team, but in a large organization, it’s a lot more costly if you are about to start a new process or project and you don’t have labor capacity or expertise to deploy.

A good analogy is the oft-cited need these days for people to be bored more often. There’s a frequent lament that, because people are so distracted by things like social media and constant interruptions, they never have time to get bored and let their mind wander, and think new thoughts or discover their own creativity. Put another way, they never get the chance to tap into their own cognitive surplus.

The only advantage a large organization can have over a small one, other than sheer efficiencies of scale, is if it has a cognitive surplus that it can tap into. By destroying that cognitive surplus, and leaving those who remain behind in a state of constant emotional turmoil and duress, these organizations are permanently damaging both their competitive advantages and their potential future innovations.

AI Spring

When the dust clears, and people realize that extreme greed is never the path to maximum long-term reward, there is going to be a “peace dividend” of sorts from all the good talent that’s now on the market. Some of this will be smart, thoughtful people flowing to other industries or companies, bringing their experience and insights with them.

But I think a lot of this will be people starting their own new companies and organizations, informed by the broken economic models, and broken human models, of the companies they’ve left. We saw this a generation ago after the bust of the dot-com boom, when it was not only revealed that the economics of a lot of the companies didn’t work, but that so many of the people who had created the companies of that era didn’t even care about the markets or the industries that they’d entered. When the get-rich-quick folks left the scene, those of us who remained, who truly loved the web as a creative and expressive medium, found a ton of opportunity in being the little mammals amidst the sad dinosaurs trying to find funding for meteor dot com.

What comes next

I don’t think this all gets better very quickly. If you put aside the puffery of the AI companies scratching each others’ backs, it’s clear the economy is in a recession, even if this administration’s goons have shut down reporting on jobs and inflation in a vain attempt to hide that reality. But I do think there may be more resilience because of the sheer talent and entrepreneurial skill of the people who are now on the market as individuals.

How was the unusual Red Rectangle nebula created? How was the unusual Red Rectangle nebula created?


The Venezuelan stock market

Venezuela’s stock market is now up +73% since President Maduro was captured. Since December 23rd, as President Trump ramped up pressure on Maduro’s government, Venezuela’s stock market is up +148%.

Here is the link and chart.  And up seventeen percent in the last day, and now some more on top of that.  Note the bolivar is down only a small amount since December 23.

I see the reality as such:

a) Immoral actions were taken, leading up to the removal of Maduro, and immoral measures are likely to continue, both from the United States and from various Venezuelan replacement governments.

b) Trump’s actions have been some mix of unlawful and unconstitutional, to what degree you can debate.

c) In expected value terms, the people of Venezuela are now much better off.

It can and should be debated how much a) and b) should be weighted against c).  But to deny c), or even to fail to mention it, is, I think, quite delusional.

Effective Altruists, are you paying attention?

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A number of studies show that various vaccines (shingles, RSV, flu) are associated with “off-target” benefits like reduced cardiovascular risk, lower rates of dementia, and lower Alzheimer’s risk for older people.

Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.0 Million SAAR in December

The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024.

Vehicle SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through December.

Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".

Then sales were depressed in May and June. 

Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

Vehicle SalesThe second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in Decvember were slightly above the consensus forecast.

Light vehicle sales were up 2.4% in 2025 compared to 2024.

Tuesday assorted links

1. 54 observations about Mexico.

2. What do economists mean when they say identification?

3. “Is the European Union now the world’s most underrated libertarian project?

4. LLAMAS LLAMAS LLAMAS (music from Mexico).

5. Christina Cacioppo reading from 2026.  And here is Klara Feenstra.

6. Scott Sumner on neoconservatism.

7. Long-term Treasuries have been losing their safe haven status.

8. The must-see art exhibits of 2026.

9. Matt Lakeman notes on Afghanistan.

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Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:
Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

RentApartment List: Asking Rent Growth -1.3% Year-over-year ...
The national median rent fell 0.8% in December, and now stands at $1,356. This closes the book on 2025, with five consecutive months of rent declines. Based on recent years, we expect another 1-2 months of rent drops before the market turns a corner in early Spring.
Realtor.com: 28th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents
Across the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, median asking rent for 0-2 bedroom units fell for the 28th consecutive month on a year-over-year basis.
There is much more in the article.

Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy Truck Sales Click on graph for larger image.

Heavy truck sales were at 311 thousand SAAR in December, down from 336 thousand in November, and down 32.5% from 461 thousand SAAR in December 2024.

Sales were down 15.3% in 2025 compared to annual sales in 2024.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.

Innovative, affordable, and expedited

One of big challenges facing Isaacman is how to speed up a human return to the Moon, or at least keep it from falling further behind schedule. Robert Oler makes the case that he should go in a very different direction to get astronauts back on the lunar surface.

Houston deserves a Space Shuttle, but not like this

A provision in last year's budget reconciliation bill effectively directed the transfer of the Space Shuttle Discovery from the Smithsonian to Space Center Houston. Maxwell Zhu argues that even if Houston should be home to a shuttle orbiter, it shouldn't get one though this approach.

Buck Rogers in the 20th century

Gil Gerard, the actor best known for playing Buck Rogers in a TV series 45 years ago, died last month. Dwayne Day examines the show he starred in that was less sci-fi than schlock.

See you on the other side: What Jim Lovell's Apollo 8 mission taught a divided world

Jim Lovell passed away in August, four months before the anniversary of the historic Apollo 13 flight. Kathleen Bangs reflects on the legacy of the mission.

Review: Gemini: Stepping Stone to the Moon

The Gemini program has a reputation as one that has been overlooked compared to Mercury and Apollo. Jeff Foust review a book that attempts to rectify that perceived oversight.

The Isaacman era begins at NASA

Jared Isaacman became NASA administrator last month, ending a convoluted confirmation process that lasted just over a year. Jeff Foust reports on Isaacman's first days at NASA and his efforts to reshape the agency.

Venezuela Regime Change and the Theater of the Absurd

On Saturday, a friend and I were comparing notes on the events following the U.S. raid on Venezuela. Setting apart all the questions about just what the White House is trying to accomplish in Venezuela, my most basic takeaway from the events of the last week is this: as President Trump’s popularity and power erode domestically he will respond with more aggressive assertions of power in those areas where his executive and prerogative authorities remain unbounded, where his domestic popularity matters the least. (This applies most obviously, though not only, to his military powers overseas.) Anything else wouldn’t be consistent with Trump’s character, which is inflexible and unchanging, though perhaps hardening with the progress of advanced age. The current situation between the U.S. and Venezuela shows how jagged, unstable and uneven this may become.

As best as I understand it, the U.S. conducted a military raid against Venezuela the tactical goal of which was to seize President Maduro. By this narrow definition, it was extremely successful. The White House, or maybe just President Trump, thought that this meant inevitably that the government itself would fall or perhaps had fallen. The White House and the president continue to claim the U.S. is now somehow in administrative control of Venezuela, will now restructure its oil industry and possibly even sell off the country’s oil or oil infrastructure assets to compensate U.S. oil companies or even sovereign debt holders. The president is now escalating and making new threats against Mexico, Colombia, Cuba and Greenland. But it’s pretty clear now that the existing state remains in place. And a couple days in we’re now seeing the existing state shake out of what we might call it’s collective state of shock and realize, “Hey, we’re still here. We’re still the state.” Perhaps this could change rapidly. We don’t know what military or diplomatic actions could be happening behind the scenes. It’s possible that the U.S. could be negotiating with Venezuelan in-country stakeholders who could manage the quick overthrow of the current state. But there’s little evidence of any of those things happening based on any news I’m seeing. Everything suggests the current state is shaking out of its shock and moving into a state of resistance. Indeed, on a related front, I just noticed this piece in the Times which reports that 16 sanctioned oil tankers have managed to run the U.S.’s purported naval blockade over the last two days.

It is easy and entirely proper to be outraged by the idea that the U.S. has overthrown the Venezuelan government for the purposes of the most brazen kinds of asset stripping. But I’m more hung up on the disconnect between those pretensions and the fact that the Venezuelan government is still there. We have the twin facts of a president able, willing and now existentially motivated to wield the vast kinetic and violent power of the U.S. military and the same man being humored by a cast of sycophants and time-biding toadies as a mad and decrepit old king as he makes wild and farcical claims that are demonstrably not true.

The stock story about the U.S. invasion of Iraq was that the U.S. managed a successful invasion and decapitation of the Iraqi state but had made few plans for how to govern or stabilize Iraq as an occupying power once it had overthrown the existing regime. We have a vaguely parallel situation in Venezuela, only the U.S. hasn’t even overthrown the current regime. It’s difficult to overstate how absurd this state of affairs is. And it’s a bit of a mystery why this disconnect still has yet to figure more prominently in U.S. news coverage. Obviously, it’s not entirely absent. I’m going on those news accounts. I mean that there is a thundering emperor-has-no-clothes situation here that somehow isn’t quite being identified clearly enough.

This is likely the lay of the land for the next three years.

‘It’s Hard to Justify Tahoe Icons’

This essay from UI critic Nikita Prokopov is just devastatingly good. If you’ve looked at MacOS 26 Tahoe, you’re surely appalled by the new UI guideline that recommends putting icons next to every single menu item. Prokopov argues — with copious screenshot illustrations every step of the way — that this is a terrible idea in the first place, and that Apple has implemented it poorly. There’s no defense for any of this. Don’t make the mistake of thinking Apple just needs better, more consistent icons. The fact that Tahoe’s menu item icons are glaringly inconsistent and often utterly inscrutable is the fudge icing on a shit cake, but the real embarrassment is that the idea ever got past the proposal stage. No real UI or icon designers think this is a good idea. None.

A shitty idea that works against usability, inconsistently implemented, all in the name of adding some ugly visual bling to the UI. Perhaps the epitome of a Dye job.

Simply a must-read piece. I have much more to say about the menus in Tahoe, but thanks to Prokopov, I don’t have to say it all.

 ★ 

★ Pickle Smells Like a Cult

Pickle CEO Daniel Park posted on Twitter/X, attempting to rebut the analysis from Matthew Dowd I linked to over the weekend pointing out the ways that Pickle’s AR glasses, for which they’re accepting $800 pre-orders, looks like a scam. Park’s rebuttal, in my opinion, boils down to (a) a bunch of handwaving about Pickle conveniently not being able to explain their own hardware because of NDAs, and (b) this claim:

Pickle 1 is not a standalone camera glasses product. It is a phone-tethered personal intelligence interface.

Pickle’s website FAQ, on launch, claimed:

Do I need a smartphone to use Pickle 1?
Pickle 1 is a standalone device but pairs with the Pickle OS app on iOS and Android for initial setup, data management, and granular privacy controls.

As of today, that FAQ now reads:

Do I need a smartphone to use Pickle 1?
Pickle 1 is not a standalone camera glasses product. it is a phone-tethered personal intelligence interface.

Which to me already nullifies the entire premise of the fantasy device they showed at launch. Park also claims, in his post today, “Pickle 1 leverages the smartphone that users already carry”, but that can’t be true if the user carries an iPhone because there’s no way Pickle can run tethering software in the background on iOS. I do not believe it’ll do even 1/100th of what they claim when paired to an Android phone, either. But it’s literally impossible with an iPhone.

Anyway, the thing that really caught my eye in Park’s post today was this, near the beginning:

We’re a team that lives together in a house in Hillsborough, California, and works on this 7 days a week. Our team is small but we work all day, every day together and it’s helping us make progress we’re very excited and proud of.

Pickle doesn’t sound a little like a cult. It sounds exactly like a cult.

Impossible claims. A compound where “employees” live and work seven days a week. Spiritual mumbo jumbo (Pickle 1 is described as a “Soul Computer” and claims to provide “an intelligence that sees with you, remembers your life, and learns to understand you. A new soul.”) Excuses for why they cannot provide evidence for any of their fantastical claims. The only way Pickle could sound more like a cult would be if their “employees” (are any of them actually getting paid?) all shaved their heads and wore Hare Krishna-style robes.

If you work there, be wary of the Kool-Aid.

ICE: "Annual home price growth ended 2025 at just +0.7%"

The ICE Home Price Index (HPI) is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales.

From ICE (Intercontinental Exchange):
Annual home price growth ended 2025 at just +0.7% — the smallest calendar-year increase since 2011, when prices fell by 2.9%.

With income growth outpacing home price gains and 30-year mortgage rates starting 2026 at 6.15%, housing affordability is at its best level in nearly four years.

At current prices and rates, purchasing an average-priced home with 20% down and a 30-year loan requires a monthly payment of $2,093 — 27.8% of median household income. That’s down from $2,256 (31.1%) at the start of 2025.

According to Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research for Intercontinental Exchange:

“Improved affordability and income growth have provided a much-needed boost to housing market dynamics, even as regional trends and property types show significant variation. The Northeast and Midwest have emerged as clear leaders, while condos continue to face headwinds in most markets.”

Drilling down into regional and property type specifics:

• Regional Standouts: New Haven, CT led all markets with an impressive 8.6% price growth, followed by Syracuse, NY (+6.8%) and Hartford, CT (+6.25%). Notably, 24 of the 25 fastest-appreciating markets were in the Northeast and Midwest.

• Price Declines: On the flip side, 35 of the 100 largest U.S. markets saw home prices decline in 2025 — up from just 10 in 2024 and marking the largest share of declines since 2011.

• Property Type Trends: Single-family homes outperformed condos, with prices rising 1.0% compared to a 1.7% decline for condos. Condos underperformed in 90% of markets nationwide.
As ICE mentioned, "regional trends ... show significant variation".  The Northeast and Midwest are saw solid house price gains in 2025, whereas cities in the South and West have been leading the way in inventory increases and price declines (especially Florida and Texas).

Surrogacy stories (state regulators, take note)

 Surrogacy in the U.S. has become well established, with commercial surrogacy legal in almost all US states.  But problems sometimes occur, often of a financial nature, which suggest that in many places the regulatory oversight is still insufficient. (It's natural new regulations should be applied to newish markets as they experience fixable problems...)

Here are three recent stories that I recommend to the attention of regulators. 

WSJ:

Surrogacy Is a Multibillion-Dollar Business—but Surrogates Can Be Left With Big Debts
Booming fertility industry, a new target of private-equity and other investors, is largely unregulated, leaving the women giving birth with few financial or legal protections  By  Katherine Long

 

NBC

 How a top-tier surrogacy agency became an FBI target
Dozens of clients and surrogates were left panicked and in the dark after the agency’s owner seemingly disappeared. One intended parent, Mariana Klaveno, is missing $66,000.
 By Kenzi Abou-Sabe, Alexandra Chaidez, Liz Kreutz and Andrew Blankstein

 

NYT:

A Surrogacy Firm Told Parents-to-Be Their Money Was Safe. Suddenly, It Vanished.
Surro Connections held itself out as a reliable business. Now, clients have lost as much as tens of thousands of dollars meant to compensate women carrying their pregnancies. 
 
By Sarah Kliff

The US Leads the World in Robots (Once You Count Correctly)

If you search for data on robots you will quickly find data from the International Federation of Robotics which places South Korea in the lead with ~818 robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers, followed by China, Japan, Germany and finally at 10th place the US at ~304 robots per 10,000. The IFR, however, misses the most sophisticated, impressive and versatile robots, namely Teslas with FSD capability. Teslas see the world, navigate complex environments, move tons of metal at high speeds and must perform at very high levels of tolerance and safety. If you included Teslas as robots, as you should, the US leaps to the top.

Moreover, once you understand Teslas as robots, Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot division, stops being a quixotic Elon side-project and becomes the obvious continuation of Tesla’s core work.

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China’s astronauts complete cave training amid preparations for moon missions

China’s astronaut corps has completed a near month-long underground cave training, conducted in part to prepare for future crewed lunar landing missions.

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L3Harris to sell majority stake in space propulsion unit to AE Industrial

Private equity firm to revive Rocketdyne name, L3Harris keeps RS-25 engine

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Array Labs raises $20 million to scale production of radar satellites for 3D Earth mapping

Startup aims to mass-produce radar hardware and deploy formation-flying satellites

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Minibus provides $24.4 billion for NASA for fiscal year 2026

House and Senate appropriators have released the text of a final appropriations bill for fiscal 2026 that largely rejects the steep cuts the Trump administration proposed for NASA.

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ARCHE ORBITAL SYSTEMS Signs Strategic MoU with MSRO to Advance National Space Capabilities for the Maldives

Dubai / Male’ November 18, 2025 – ARCHE ORBITAL SYSTEMS, a global space-technology company specializing in advanced mission design and in-orbit services operations, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) […]

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No more free rides: it’s time to pay for space safety

Illustration of orbital debris. Credit: IARPA

A small but important change can be found at the end of President Trump’s sweeping December 18, 2025, Executive Order, “Ensuring American Space Superiority.” The Executive Order removes the requirement for the United States government to make basic space situational awareness data and space traffic management services available “free of direct user fees,” instead saying […]

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Why Care About Debt-to-GDP?

Here is another piece for “contrarian Tuesday,” like it or not:

We construct an international panel data set comprising three distinct yet plausible measures of government indebtedness: the debt-to-GDP, the interest-to-GDP, and the debt-to-equity ratios. Our analysis reveals that these measures yield differing conclusions about recent trends in government indebtedness. While the debt-to-GDP ratio has reached historically high levels, the other two indicators show either no clear trend or a declining pattern over recent decades. We argue for the development of stronger theoretical foundations for the measures employed in the literature, suggesting that, without such grounding, assertions about debt (un)sustainability may be premature.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Jonathan B. Berk & Jules H. van Binsbergen, it is worth repeating this basic idea.  And here is my earlier podcast with Alex on similar themes.

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The Real Donroe Doctrine

A group of men in suits

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

For Americans of a certain age, the snatch and grab abduction of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s president, brings back memories of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, in some ways with good reason.

Almost everyone now sees Iraq as a cautionary tale about the lies of the powerful: We were taken to war on false pretenses. Almost everyone also thinks of Iraq as a prime example of the power of delusional thinking on the part of the powerful themselves. Slogans of the time — “We will be welcomed as liberators”; “Mission Accomplished” — are now routinely used ironically, to denote foolish projects doomed to catastrophic failure. And Donald Trump’s Venezuela adventure is another tale of lies and delusion.

But in other ways the Trump/Venezuela story is very different from the Bush/Iraq story.

Two days after the abduction, it’s clear that Trump wasn’t seeking regime change, at least not in any fundamental way. He’s more like a mob boss trying to expand his territory, believing that if he knocks off a rival boss he can bully the guy’s former capos into giving him a cut of their take.

If that sounds harsh, bear in mind that before Trump stepped in, Maduro and his fellow Chavistas — the movement founded by Hugo Chavez — faced strong opposition from domestic pro-democracy forces led by María Corina Machado. Edmundo González, a Machado ally, clearly won Venezuela’s 2024 election, only to have Maduro steal it. So, if Trump wanted regime change he would be supporting Machado and her movement.

But in his triumphal Saturday press conference, Trump sneeringly dismissed Machado, declaring that “it’d be very tough for her to be the leader, she doesn’t have the support. She doesn’t have the respect.”

Instead, he appeared eager to support Maduro’s second-in-command, Delcy Rodriguez, implying that she was ready to cooperate with his designs. Indeed, during the press conference and afterward Trump repeatedly declared that he was already “running” Venezuela.

But it took only a few hours for Rodriguez to make him look like a fool: Later that day she and other leading members of the Maduro government denounced U.S. actions and declared on TV that Maduro is still president of Venezuela.

Oops. By Sunday Trump was threatening to punish Rodriguez for her defiance.

How did Trump make such a big miscalculation? Trump has surrounded himself with sycophants like Pete Hegseth, who has repeatedly described him as “the greatest president of my lifetime.” He lives in a self-aggrandizing fantasy world — a world in which he has a 64 percent approval rating and is a contender for the Nobel Peace Prize.

The Washington Post reports that Trump turned on Machado because she committed the “ultimate sin” of accepting her genuine Nobel prize.

Anyway, the core of Trump’s fantasy involves imagining that he really is the character he played on The Apprentice, a master of the Art of the Deal.

Given Trump’s belief that he can always out-deal, out-bully and out-cheat everyone else, it’s easy to see how he interpreted some conciliatory conversations with Rodriguez as a signal that she would be his obedient puppet.

Trump’s self-image as the ultimate dealmaker explains why he was so ready to believe, falsely, that he controlled Venezuela. It also explains his insistence that by, as he imagined, seizing Venezuela, he had gained a valuable prize in the form of its oil. “We’re going to be taking out a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground.” Many Trump critics share his view that there’s a lot of money to be made from Venezuelan oil and condemn his intervention as an attempt to steal that money.

But you know who doesn’t think there’s a lot of money to be made in Venezuela? Oil companies. They see a dilapidated infrastructure that would cost billions to repair. They don’t see a stable political environment above ground. And while Venezuela has large oil reserves, much of its oil is “extra heavy, making it polluting and expensive to process.”

So, why did Trump have Maduro abducted? There were surely multiple motivations. Fantasies of dominance and control and dreams of oil-soaked riches played their part. So did ego. The snatch gave Trump an opportunity to strut, and assuage his Obama envy: Trump’s minions set up a “war room” at Mar-a-Lago that looks as if it was designed to let him emulate the famous photo of Obama and his officials tracking the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Obama’s team did not, however, have X/Twitter on the screen behind them.

Trump also surely hoped that abducting Maduro would help him politically. The abduction pushed the Epstein files out of the headlines for a few days. And Trump is definitely trying to wag the dog, seeking a boost in popularity as the nation rallies around the flag. However, he’s almost certain to be disappointed. Before the abduction, Americans overwhelmingly opposed military action in Venezuela. Early polling since the abduction remains highly unfavorable:

A screenshot of a survey

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Note that three times as many independents strongly oppose the U.S. running Venezuela as strongly support it. And these numbers will get worse as the public realizes how little was achieved.

In any case, it’s important to understand that the confrontation with Venezuela has nothing to do with the national interest. It’s all about Trump’s self-aggrandizing delusions. And it will accomplish nothing except to make America look even less trustworthy and weaker than it did before.

MUSICAL CODA

I think I may have used this already, but it’s too on point not to use here:

It’s hard to justify Tahoe icons

It’s hard to justify Tahoe icons

Devastating critique of the new menu icons in macOS Tahoe by Nikita Prokopov, who starts by quoting the 1992 Apple HIG rule to not "overload the user with complex icons" and then provides comprehensive evidence of Tahoe doing exactly that.

In my opinion, Apple took on an impossible task: to add an icon to every menu item. There are just not enough good metaphors to do something like that.

But even if there were, the premise itself is questionable: if everything has an icon, it doesn’t mean users will find what they are looking for faster.

And even if the premise was solid, I still wish I could say: they did the best they could, given the goal. But that’s not true either: they did a poor job consistently applying the metaphors and designing the icons themselves.

Via Hacker News

Tags: apple, design, macos, usability

Oxide and Friends Predictions 2026, today at 4pm PT

Oxide and Friends Predictions 2026, today at 4pm PT

I joined the Oxide and Friends podcast last year to predict the next 1, 3 and 6 years(!) of AI developments. With hindsight I did very badly, but they're inviting me back again anyway to have another go.

We will be recording live today at 4pm Pacific on their Discord - you can join that here, and the podcast version will go out shortly afterwards.

I'll be recording at their office in Emeryville and then heading to the Crucible to learn how to make neon signs.

Via Bryan Cantrill

Tags: podcasts, ai, llms, oxide

The puzzle of Pakistan’s poverty?

Until 2009, India was poorer than Pakistan on a per capita basis. India truly became richer than Pakistan after 2009 and since then it hasn’t looked back. If trends continue for a decade, India will be more than twice as rich as Pakistan soon…

So why has India pulled ahead in GDP per capita? The reason is simple. Pakistan’s high fertility has driven population growth faster than India’s. In 1952 Pakistan had about one-tenth of India’s population; by 2025 it had grown to nearly one-seventh.

In other words, many of the added Pakistanis have not started working yet, but they are on the books to lower the per capita esstimate.  There is much in this Rohit Shinde essay I disagree with, but it is a useful corrective to those who simply wish to sing “policy, policy, policy.”  Putting aside its per capita lag, Pakistan has done a better job keeping up with India than you might think at first.

In any case, I am not predicting that trend will continue in the future, I do not think so.  So someday this essay might look especially “off,” nonetheless it is worth a moment of ponder.

The post The puzzle of Pakistan’s poverty? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Holding at 2-Month Low Excerpt:
Bottom line: at current levels, any day that rates spend holding steady or moving microscopically lower will technically result in the lowest rates since October 28th. It would take a more noticeable improvement to break below that floor. When and if that happens, rates will be the lowest since early 2023.[30 year fixed 6.19%]
emphasis added
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Dept. of the Air Force opens bidding for Space Launch Complex 14 at Vandenberg SFB

Vandenberg SFB Guardians and Airmen supported the NASA Tandem Reconnection and Cusp Electrodynamics Reconnaissance Satellites (TRACERS) mission launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4E (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base, July 23, 2025. At the forefront of space operations at Vandenberg, the safety team ensures minimal risk for safe, reliable and frequent access to space. Image: U.S. Space Force/Jennifer Green-Lanchoney

Update: Jan. 6, 1:25 p.m. EST (1825 UTC): Corrected some of the launch complex status information for accuracy.

A new orbital launch site is up for grabs at Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) in California.

On Monday, the Department of the Air Force published a new request for information from launch providers to determine the level of interest in what would become the southern most launch complex on the Western Range.

The space, which will be designated as Space Launch Complex 14 or SLC-14, is being set aside for orbital rockets in a heavy or super-heavy vertical launch class. The government defines “heavy” as having payload capacity of between 20,000-50,000 kg (44,092-110,231 lbs) and “super-heavy” anything greater than 50,000 kg.

“Due to the unique attributes of SLC-14 and the goal of maximizing assured access to space in support of national security objectives, the Department of the Air Force (DAF), United States Space Force (USSF), and Space Launch Delta 30 (SLD 30) are committed to ensuring the best use of this property,” the RFI stated.

Vandenberg currently plays host to a variety of launch providers, which are spread across multiple pads:

  • SLC-2 – Firefly Aerospace, Alpha rocket
  • SLC-3 – United Launch Alliance, Vulcan rocket (under development)
  • SLC-4E – SpaceX, Falcon 9 rocket
  • SLC-5 – Phantom Space, Daytona rocket (undeveloped; environmental assessment completed)
  • SLC-6 – SpaceX, Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets (under development)
  • SLC-8 – Government-owned, multi-use pad (most recently used by Northrop Grumman’s Minotaur 4 rocket on April 16, 2025)
  • SLC-9 – Undeveloped (a draft environmental assessment document dated Feb. 2025 references Blue Origin in a “Reasonably Foreseeable Projects” table, but a spokesperson for SLD 30 said on Jan. 6 that Blue Origin currently doesn’t hold any out grant or lease for property at VSFB)
  • SLC-576E Licensed to Long Wall (formerly ABL Space Systems)
Space Launch Complex 14 description: Est Latitude: 34°33’38.3″N Est Longitude 120°34’16.7″W. The property is unimproved land several miles from utilities and infrastructure. When developed it will be the most Southern Space Launch Complex. The nearest constraint is the Union Pacific Railroad within approximately 2000 ft. Graphic: Space Launch Delta 30

One of the requirements listed in the RFI include what the government calls the “highest technical maturity.” It states that for the bid from a launch provider to be taken seriously, it needs to prove that it can “begin operations within approximately five years of a real property out grant (lease) being issued.”

“A provider with a more technically mature vehicle is demonstrably better positioned to initiate operations quickly at SLC-14,” according to the RFI. “To demonstrate ability to meet this criterion, respondents should submit a schedule of projected milestones proposing how the intended vehicle could be operational on SLC-14 within five years of a real property outgrant (lease) being issued.”

SLD 30 said in this RFI that not only does it want to bring new launch capability to the California coast line, but also ensure that it can mix well with the current missions at Vandenberg.

“To demonstrate ability to meet this criterion, respondents should provide projected launch rate, mass to orbit per launch, quantities of fuels needed, explosive arcs and hazard areas (including explosive siting maps in work or approved), mitigation alternatives for anticipated impacts for neighboring operations, and transportation routes as well as any modifications required to existing VSFB infrastructure to support operations (e.g., harbor, roads, utilities, processing),” the RFI states.

Interested parties will also need to be able to abide by regulations set forth by the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). The government noted that because the land for SLC-14 is currently undeveloped, an Environmental Impact Statement and Record of Decision would also need to be created before construction could begin.

Responses are due to the government by Feb. 12.

Space Launch Complex 14 description: Est Latitude: 34°33’38.3″N Est Longitude 120°34’16.7″W. The property is unimproved land several miles from utilities and infrastructure. When developed it will be the most Southern Space Launch Complex. The nearest constraint is the Union Pacific Railroad within approximately 2000 ft. Graphic: Space Launch Delta 30

Who’s in contention?

Multiple U.S. launch providers have rockets that qualify in the heavy to super-heavy classification either currently launching or in development. But in order to increase the diversity of rockets flying from Vandenberg, SLD 30 is looking primarily for options that don’t currently exist at VSFB.

Given all the requirements and the state of play on the orbital launch front, one of the contenders would likely be SpaceX with their Starship-Super Heavy rocket. The company is slated to launch the latest iteration of the rocket, dubbed Version 3, sometime in early 2026.

In 2025, SpaceX also received approval from the Department of the Air Force to move forward with overhauling SLC-37 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) in Florida, which will feature two Starhip launch towers. It’s unclear if SpaceX were to make a play for SLC-14 if it would also feature two towers, like SLC-37 or its Starbase site in Texas.

Blue Origin is another likely contender for the launch real estate. While they do have the currently undeveloped space at SLC-9 for its New Glenn rocket, in late November, the company unveiled plans for a news super-heavy lift version called New Glenn 9×4, which will feature nine BE-4 engines on the booster and is designed to carry more than 70 metric tons (154,324 lb) to low Earth orbit.

Another company who may take a shot at the space is Relativity Space. Like both Blue Origin and SpaceX, their heavy lift rocket, Terran R, is also designed to have a reusable first stage booster and is expected to deliver up to 23,500 kg (51,809 lb) to low Earth orbit in its reusable configuration.

Relativity is in the midst of converting Launch Complex 16 at CCSFS from its previous design that supported the smaller Terran 1 rocket, which flew once before it was retired. It’s aiming for an inaugural flight of Terran R from Florida no earlier than late 2026.

Both Firefly Aerospace and Rocket Lab also have upcoming rockets, dubbed Eclipse and Neutron, that have dedicated pads up on Wallops Island, Virginia. However, because they’re classified as medium lift rockets — supporting between 2,000-20,000 kg (4,409-44,092 lb) — they’re not in contention for SLC-14.

All part of the plan

SLD 30 has been undergoing significant updates as part of an overhaul referred to as the Spaceport of the Future. It’s an infusion of taxpayer dollars combined with creative reworking of the infrastructure needed to support the anticipated launch rate for 2036.

The commander of SLD 30, Col. Jim Horne, spoke about the undertaking alongside the commander of SLD 45 in Florida, Col. Brian Chatman, and the program executive office for the U.S. Space Force’s Assured Access to Space, Col. Eric Zarybnisky. AATS, which operates under the USSF’s Space Systems Command, is responsible for the acquisition, development and management of the National Security Space Launch program along with other acquisition programs.

“Spaceport 2036 is exactly what we call it […] a hive of activity, which is what we have today, but much more seamlessly integrated, automated, getting to the requirements that we’re giving to Col. Zarybnisky is things like parallel operations and simultaneous launch and things like that,” Horne said during a reporter roundtable at the 2025 SpacePower Conference hosted by the Space Force Association in Orlando, Florida.

“So, we’re building the infrastructure to just continue to unleash that capacity and then help us accommodate some of the strain we’re seeing. We’re paying a large technical debt that we accumulated over several decades in infrastructure. We really haven’t significantly overhauled the launch infrastructure since the 60s, when we built it for the space race.”

During a panel at the conference, Horne said $861 million is currently being invested at VSFB for the Spaceport 2036 undertaking. That is going towards things like upgrading roads, harbors, the electric grid, gate capacity and more as they prepare for a launch cadence ranging between 150 and 200 flights annually.

Horne said part of modernizing for a much more commercially driven spaceport are initiatives, like collecting indirect charges from launch providers. He said SLD 30 publishes an annual report for their stakeholders to show what charges have been levied and how the funds are bing used.

Among the Space Force Guardians at VSFB, Horne said there are about 40 people who are responsible for assessing the environmental impacts of the decisions made to the site to help ensure a balance between advancement and maintaining good stewardship of the land.

“We have 16 endangered species at Vandenberg, the most of any other installation, and an extremely sensitive environment area,” Horne said. “We have strong partnerships with multiple folks, despite what you may hear to the contrary. Our environmental analysis is extensive and the protection mechanisms that we put in place are incredibly successful.

“We have a very thriving, vibrant environment and we have for decades. None of that’s changed. It’s just that as we increase our throughput, we have to be sensitive to those effects and they do an incredible job, day in and day out.”

Monday 5 January 1662/63

Up and to the Duke, who himself told me that Sir J. Lawson was come home to Portsmouth from the Streights, who is now come with great renown among all men, and, I perceive, mightily esteemed at Court by all. The Duke did not stay long in his chamber; but to the King’s chamber, whither by and by the Russia Embassadors come; who, it seems, have a custom that they will not come to have any treaty with our or any King’s Commissioners, but they will themselves see at the time the face of the King himself, be it forty days one after another; and so they did to-day only go in and see the King; and so out again to the Council-chamber.

The Duke returned to his chamber, and so to his closett, where Sir G. Carteret, Sir J. Minnes, Sir W. Batten, Mr. Coventry, and myself attended him about the business of the Navy; and after much discourse and pleasant talk he went away. And I took Sir W. Batten and Captain Allen into the wine cellar to my tenant (as I call him, Serjeant Dalton), and there drank a great deal of variety of wines, more than I have drunk at one time, or shall again a great while, when I come to return to my oaths, which I intend in a day or two. Thence to my Lord’s lodging, where Mr. Hunt and Mr. Creed dined with us, and were very merry. And after dinner he and I to White Hall, where the Duke and the Commissioners for Tangier met, but did not do much: my Lord Sandwich not being in town, nobody making it their business. So up, and Creed and I to my wife again, and after a game or two at cards, to the Cockpitt, where we saw “Claracilla,” a poor play, done by the King’s house (but neither the King nor Queen were there, but only the Duke and Duchess, who did show some impertinent and, methought, unnatural dalliances there, before the whole world, such as kissing, and leaning upon one another); but to my very little content, they not acting in any degree like the Duke’s people. So home (there being here this night Mrs. Turner and Mrs. Martha Batten of our office) to my Lord’s lodgings again, and to a game at cards, we three and Sarah, and so to supper and some apples and ale, and to bed with great pleasure, blessed be God!

Read the annotations

January 4, 2026

Secretary of State Marco Rubio took the administration’s message about its strikes on Venezuela to the Sunday talk shows this morning. It did not go well.

Asked by George Stephanopoulos of ABC’s This Week under what legal authority the U.S. is going to run Venezuela, as President Donald J. Trump vowed to do, Rubio served up a lot of words but ultimately fell back on the idea that the U.S. has economic leverage over Venezuela because it can seize sanctioned oil tankers. Seizing ships will give the U.S. power to force the Venezuelan government to do as the U.S. wants, Rubio suggested. This is a very different message than Trump delivered yesterday when he claimed that the people standing behind him on the stage—including Rubio—would be running Venezuela.

When Stephanopoulos asked Rubio if he was, indeed, running Venezuela, Rubio again suggested that the U.S. was only pressuring the Venezuelan government by seizing sanctioned oil tankers, and said he was involved in those policies. When Kristen Welker of NBC’s Meet the Press also asked if Rubio was running Venezuela, Rubio seemed frustrated that “People [are] fixating on that. Here’s the bottom line on it is we expect to see changes in Venezuela.” Historian Kevin Kruse commented: “Yeah, people are fixating on a Cabinet Secretary being given a sovereign country to run because the president waged war without congressional approval and kidnapped the old leader. Weird that they’d get hung up on that.”

When Stephanopoulos asked why the administration thought it didn’t need congressional authorization for the strikes, Rubio said they didn’t need congressional approval because the U.S. did not invade or occupy another country. The attack, he said, was simply a law enforcement operation to arrest Maduro. Rubio said something similar yesterday, but Trump immediately undercut that argument by saying the U.S. intended to take over Venezuela’s oil fields and run the country.

Indeed, if the strikes were a law enforcement operation, officials will need to explain how officers managed to kill so many civilians, as well as members of security forces. Mariana Martinez of the New York Times reported today that the number of those killed in the operation has risen to 80.

Rubio highlighted again that the Trump administration wants to control the Western Hemisphere, and he went on to threaten Cuba. Simon Rosenberg of The Hopium Chronicles articulated the extraordinary smallness of the Trump administration’s vision when he wrote: “We must also marvel at the titanic idiocy of our new ‘Donroe Doctrine’ for it turns America from a global power into a regional one by choice. I still can’t really believe they are going through with this for it is so batsh*t f-ing crazy, and does so much lasting harm to our interests.”

Shortly after Trump told reporters yesterday that Venezuela’s former vice president, now president, Delcy Rodríguez is “essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again,” Rodríguez demanded Maduro’s return and said Venezuela would “never again be a colony of any empire, whatever its nature.” Indeed, U.S. extraction of Maduro and threats to “run” Venezuela are more likely to boost the Maduro government than weaken it.

In a phone call today with Michael Scherer of The Atlantic, Trump threatened Rodríguez, saying that “if she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro.” Tonight on Air Force One, Trump told reporters that the U.S., not Rodríguez, is in charge of Venezuela.

Trump also told Scherer that he does indeed intend to continue to assert U.S. control in the Western Hemisphere, telling Scherer that “we do need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defense.” Greenland is part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), meaning it is already part of U.S. national defense.

Although he ran for office on the idea of getting the U.S. out of the business of foreign intervention, Trump embraced the idea of regime change in Venezuela, telling Scherer: “You know, rebuilding there and regime change, anything you want to call it, is better than what you have right now. Can’t get any worse.” He continued: “Rebuilding is not a bad thing in Venezuela’s case. The country’s gone to hell. It’s a failed country. It’s a totally failed country. It’s a country that’s a disaster in every way.”

At Strength in Numbers, G. Elliott Morris noted that military intervention in Venezuela is even more unpopular with the American people “than Trump’s tariffs and health care cuts.” In September, only 16% of Americans wanted a “U.S. invasion of Venezuela,” with 62% against it. A December poll showed that 60% of likely voters opposed “sending American troops into Venezuela to remove President Maduro from power.” Only 33% approved. Even support for strikes against the small boats in the Caribbean could not get majority support: 53% opposed them while only 42% approved.

“By the time American forces touched Venezuelan soil early Saturday morning,” Morris writes, “Trump had already lost the public.”

But officials in the administration no longer appear to care what the American people want, instead simply gathering power into their own hands for the benefit of themselves and their cronies, trusting that Republican politicians will go along and the American people will not object enough to force the issue. The refusal of the Department of Justice to obey the clear direction of the Epstein Files Transparency Act seems to have been a test of Congress’s resolve, and so far, it is a gamble the administration appears to be winning.

Morris notes that a December CBS poll showed that 75% of Americans, including 58% of Republicans, correctly believed a president must get approval from Congress before taking military action against Venezuela. The president did not get that approval. By law, the president must inform the Gang of Eight before engaging in military strikes, but if an emergency situation prevents that notification, then the president must inform the Gang of Eight within 48 hours. The Gang of Eight is made up of the top leaders of both parties in both chambers of Congress, as well as the top leaders from both parties on the House and Senate Intelligence Committees.

Representative Jim Himes (D-CT) who as ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee is a member of the Gang of Eight, told CBS’s Margaret Brennan this morning that neither he nor House minority leader and fellow Gang of Eight member Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) had been briefed on the strikes. Himes said: “I was delighted to hear that Tom Cotton, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has been in regular contact with the administration. I’ve had zero outreach, and no Democrat that I’m aware of has had any outreach whatsoever. So apparently we’re now in a world where the legal obligation to keep the Congress informed only applies to your party, which is really something.”

Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY)—also a member of the Gang of Eight—told reporters that he hadn’t been briefed either and that the administration had deliberately misled Congress in three classified briefings before the strikes. In those briefings, officials assured lawmakers that the administration was not planning to take military action in Venezuela and was not pursuing regime change. “They’ve kept everyone in the total dark,” he said.

Nonetheless, Himes told Brennan that he thought Trump’s Venezuelan adventure would not go well: “We’re in the euphoria period of…acknowledging across the board that Maduro was a bad guy and that our military is absolutely incredible. This is exactly the euphoria we felt in 2002 when our military took down the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2003, when our military took out Saddam Hussein, and in 2011, when we helped remove Muammar Gaddafi from power in Libya. These were very, very bad people, by the way, much, much worse than Maduro and Venezuela, which was never a significant national security threat to the United States. But we’re in that euphoria phase. And what we learned the day after the euphoria phase is that it’s an awful lot easier to break a country than it is to actually do what the president promised to do, which is to run it…. [L]et’s let my Republican colleagues enjoy their day of euphoria, but they’re going to wake up tomorrow morning knowing what? My God, there is no plan here any more than there was in Afghanistan, Iraq, or in Libya.”

Representative Ted Lieu (D-CA) was more direct: “The U.S. attack on Venezuela is illegal,” he posted. “Congress never authorized this use of military force. I will vote to stop it. This is insane. Health care costs and food prices are surging. Trump’s response is we’re going to run another country. Batsh*t crazy.”

Notes:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/congress-venezuela-trump-maduro.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/01/trump-venezuela-maduro-delcy-rodriguez/685497/

Strength In Numbers
Americans do not want war with Venezuela
President Donald Trump announced at a press conference on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026 that the United States government had successfully captured Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, and would try him domestically for crime related to narco-terrorism against the U.S. Trump also announced that America is…
Read more

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/04/world/trump-us-venezuela-maduro/f23300d5-82c7-5d11-882c-5b1c4d49c3ca

https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-venezuela-maduro-january-3-2026/

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/democratic-lawmakers-say-they-were-misled-venezuela-2026-01-03/

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/04/politics/us-running-venezuela-trump-administration

Bluesky:

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How do local political figures feel about Venezuela?

With our country’s recent invasion/presidential kidnapping of another nation, I wanted to find out what our local political leaders think of the whole jam. My favorite take, thus far, came via the great Heather Cox Richardson, who wrote on her Substack: “When [George] Stephanopoulos asked [Marco] Rubio if he was, indeed, running Venezuela, Rubio again suggested that the U.S. was only pressuring the Venezuelan government by seizing sanctioned oil tankers, and said he was involved in those policies. When Kristen Welker of NBC’s Meet the Press also asked if Rubio was running Venezuela, Rubio seemed frustrated that ‘People [are] fixating on that. Here’s the bottom line on it is we expect to see changes in Venezuela.’ Historian Kevin Kruse commented: ‘Yeah, people are fixating on a Cabinet Secretary being given a sovereign country to run because the president waged war without congressional approval and kidnapped the old leader. Weird that they’d get hung up on that.’”

Well said.

Anyhow, without much delay, here you go …

MIKE LEVIN, CA-49 CONGRESSMAN:

“I am outraged by the administration’s actions and I’m working very hard to see what we can do in the coming weeks and months. I put out this statement …

“There is no question that Nicolas Maduro ruled Venezuela through repression, corruption, and the systematic dismantling of democratic institutions. Millions of Venezuelans have paid the price, and their country is better off without him. But even when confronting a dictator, the United States remains bound by its own Constitution.

“I am grateful to the members of our military and intelligence community who carried out their duties with professionalism and courage, and I am relieved that no American service members were killed. My respect and gratitude for their service, however, does not change the fact that the President moved forward without coming to Congress to explain the legal basis for this action, define its objectives, or seek the authorization the Constitution requires. Decisions of war and peace do not belong to one person alone.

“The President has now stated that the United States is ‘running Venezuela.’ Under the Constitution and international law, governing a foreign country constitutes an act of war and occupation, not a law-enforcement action. Such an undertaking requires explicit congressional authorization and a clear legal framework. Neither exists here.

“To date, the Administration has not articulated a lawful basis for this operation. Article I of the Constitution assigns Congress the authority to authorize war and sustained military hostilities. Outside of a sudden or imminent attack on the United States or U.S. forces, the President does not have unilateral authority to launch major military operations or assume control over another country.

“These concerns are heightened by the fact that senior Administration officials, including Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, briefed Members of Congress just weeks ago and did not request authorization for the use of force or disclose plans for regime change. Congress was sidelined from a decision of historic consequence, and the American people were denied transparency.

“The Administration has attempted to frame this action as a law-enforcement or counternarcotics effort. That explanation is difficult to reconcile with the President’s recent pardon of a former Honduran president convicted in U.S. court of major drug trafficking offenses. It is further undermined by the President’s own statements emphasizing Venezuela’s oil and the desire to control it.

“Securing access to another nation’s oil is not a lawful basis for the use of military force under the Constitution, nor is it recognized as a justification under international law. When military action is openly tied to control over natural resources, it reinforces the conclusion that this was a regime-change operation, not a limited enforcement action.

“American history is clear: interventions undertaken without congressional authorization do not produce stability or security. They lead to prolonged conflict, regional instability, and lasting damage to U.S. credibility. Bypassing Congress does not make America stronger. It makes our power less legitimate and our outcomes more dangerous.”

•••

HARLEY ROUDA, FORMER CA-48 CONGRESSMAN, 2019-2021:

“My perspective: I think we have to look past whether it was a good idea, or a bad idea, or whether Congress should have been consulted beforehand or not, and focus on the real reasons behind the mission. And I think there are three primary reasons we took the action we did. First and foremost, as often is the case when it comes to U.S. geopolitical strategy, it’s about oil. Venezuela oil sales help support terrorism and support our adversaries—namely China and North Korea. Second, Venezuela has significant critical and essential minerals that the U.S. needs, and access makes us less reliant on China, and also buys time as we continue to develop our infrastructure within the United States to supply the same critical elements. Third, this was a message to our adversaries showing them our capabilities—and perhaps a prelude to additional military excursions such as Cuba and even Columbia.

“Contrary to White House messaging, this was not an interdiction of drugs bound for the United States. Fact is that Venezuela is primarily involved in the cocaine trade to Europe—not the US.”

My follow up: How does Rouda feel about it?

“I think it is hard to be for it or against it until we see how things play out. Lots of people celebrating—just like they did when The Taliban were driven out of Kabul and like when Hussein was overthrown. And we know how those movies ended. I also think it is difficult to second guess military operations when you don’t have full access to intelligence and threat scenarios.”

•••

LISA RAMIREZ, CA-40 CANDIDATE:

“As someone who lived and worked in Venezuela before Chavez was in power, I stand unequivocably with the people of Venezuela and acknowledge the corruption, and erosion of democratic and human rights endured under Maduro’s dictatorship. That being said, the actions of this administration cannot be justified under international law. The American people must hold our elected officials accountable to ensure a quick and orderly transfer of power back to the people of Venezuela and that the natural resources of Venezuela are not exploited for corporate profits. As history has shown us, these quick military actions cost U.S. taxpayers and our military men and women for many years to come. Instead of focusing on kitchen table issues like affordability, the economy and healthcare, this administration has now created a new distraction at taxpayers’ expense. We must continue to stand for democracy, the rule of law, and balance of power that protects the interest of the people whether that be in Venezuela or here at home in the United States.”

•••

ESTHER KIM VARET, CA-40 CANDIDATE:

“Still waiting to see if you’re not a hypocrite. So no.”

[This was a reply to, “Writing a piece about candidates’ reaction/thoughts to Venezuela. You have a statement/thought/opinion you’d like to offer?”]1

•••

CHRIS KLUWE, ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 72 CANDIDATE

“I think it’s another example of Trump’s extreme lawlessness, and is an indictment on every member of the GOP who refuses to do their constitutionally appointed duties and impeach him. He represents the worst of America, he enables people to be the worst versions of themselves, and there needs to be severe consequences for everyone involved in this literal war crime if we’re ever going to heal as a nation.”

•••

Because this is, obviously, a left-leaning site, I didn’t seek out MAGA folk to get their takes. But if you’re wondering, Young Kim (now desperate to go hard right as her grasp on CA-40 supremacy slips away) is as predictable as a Dollar General paper towel …

… which is understandable, because her main GOP rival, the equally leaky Ken Calvert, would lick Donald Trump’s toes for a dime and a head pat. He had this to say …

And Will O’Neill, head of the OC GOP … well, he posted nothing.

Bro just wants to talk about Charlie Kirk.

Anyhow, there you go.

We’re living in weird times.

Weeeeeiiiiiird times.

PS: This, from the Washington Post, is absolutely insane—and, sadly, believable …

1

I’ll elaborate on this later in the week. But it’s plenty wackadoo.

January 4, 2026

Links 1/5/26

Links for you. Science:

Inside the FDA’s vaccine uproar
Climate research is Trump’s latest casualty
Ancient sewers expose a hidden health crisis in Roman Britain
Vaccinating Boys Against HPV Could Eliminate Cervical Cancer
NIH leader resigns after flap over risks of seasonal flu virus study. Agency may be expanding list of pathogens subject to dangerous “gain-of-function” regulations (“A supporter of Beigel’s within NIH, who also requested anonymity for career reasons, called the flu study dustup a “pseudomanufactured concern” that was meant to force him out, so officials could bring in a researcher who has strongly supported Trump.”)
Ancient Romans Guarding Hadrian’s Wall Were Riddled with Worms and Parasites

Other:

How D.C. residents fought back in 2025
House Democrats say D.C. police investigation was political stunt. The lawmakers called Republicans’ criticisms ‘an assault on reality at the behest of an unstable President’ (Republicans selectively quoted witnesses? Unpossible!; “The commanders consistently testified that they did not feel pressure to change
crime classifications to less serious offenses to give a false sense of a crime
reduction.”; report here)
A postmortem on the RFK stadium deal
Affordability (“…Democrats had better have a rock solid plan to enact an affordability agenda in 2029 or the election of 2030 will be a massive wipeout by a Republican Party led by Nick Fuentes.”)
Zohran Mamdani on His Family’s Experience With Immigration Court and His Plans for ICE in NYC
Long lines at the food pantry: Inflation tests Trump’s base in Michigan
Jim Beam closing Kentucky distillery for a year as Trump tariffs hit hard
This is how Gov.-elect Spanberger will begin tackling ‘affordability’
The Socialists vs. The Progressives
The Biggest Threat to the 2026 Economy Is Still Donald Trump
Justice Dept. sues D.C. over ban on AR-15s and other semiautomatic guns
Were classical statues painted horribly?
Trillions for War, Pennies for People: How Soaring Military Spending Fails Americans
CBS News’ censorship of ’60 Minutes’ story spectacularly backfires
The Return of the Weirdo. Will this be the cool new thing of 2026?
A Green Light for Anti-Islam Bigotry for Trump’s GOP
The Phone-Based Retirement Is Here
Yet again, released Epstein files raise more questions than answers
The Biggest Lie in Texas Politics. Ahead of the midterm elections, Democrats in the state are leaning on an old message.
Where is the footage Jeffrey Epstein secretly recorded of people in his houses?!
Congolese rape survivors search in vain for medicine after USAID cuts
He Said He Was Not Close With Epstein. His Emails Suggest Otherwise. Andrew Farkas, a New York City real estate mogul, had assured investors that his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein was for business only.
Racial Slurs and Nazi Symbols: Inside the Complaint That Shut Down The Harvard Salient (tomorrow’s conservative leaders…)
Leadership Perks: Riley Gaines Scored Big Bonus From Nonprofit
How a 150-year-old tradition became America’s favorite Christmas dinner alternative (Jewish Christmas!)
Fiddler Ashley MacIsaac has show cancelled over Google AI-generated misinformation
Supreme Court blocks National Guard deployment to Chicago in defeat for Trump
Bari Weiss Is the Propagandist Donald Trump Deserves
‘It’s a war’: Inside ICE’s media machine
60 Minutes’s ‘Inside CECOT’
Heritage Foundation killed by MAGA
JD Vance’s 2028 strategy: Be even worse than Trump

Some Thoughts on Venezuela

In no particular order:

  1. Needless to say, this is a(nother) illegal usurpation of congressional power about which congressional Republicans will do nothing.
  2. I have no idea what the long-term consequences for Venezuela will be. That said, “We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition” does not seem like good policy (or domestic politics), given previous American attempts to do so. All countries have domestic politics, and there might be an incentive for Venezuelans to not cooperate with the U.S. I could be wrong, but this might not go the way Trump expects it too.
  3. While Trump might believe things like ‘we’re taking back the oil’, the economic reality is that there’s little money to be had there. Trump is stupid and easily manipulated, but this comes from Trump’s handlers, in this case, most likely Secretary of State Rubio.
  4. In the medium and long-term, I don’t think this helps Trump politically. There’s no real upside to this in terms of Americans’ day-to-day lives, and lots of potential downsides. For example, while this might shove the Epstein files off the front page temporarily (until more document releases happen), it also effectively ended the Somali immigrant crapola, which was starting to pick up steam.
  5. Democrats should push for articles of impeachment. Will they pass the House? Almost certainly not, but nothing else Democrats will want to achieve will pass either, so go for it.
  6. Also related to impeachment: releasing Very Serious Statements about investigations and “answers” is what you do when you want an issue to go away. Impeachment theater is the way you cut through the noise. Impeachment theater is good!
  7. Simultaneously (or nearly so), Democrats should introduce a resolution disapproving of Trump’s aggression and directing him to withdraw US forces.
  8. That said, I doubt Democrats will do anything substantive, because they’re still following the plan of hoping the economy is bad enough in 2026 to take back the House.
  9. As always, siding with Trump never works out in the long run: “I think it’d be very tough for her [María Corina Machado] to be the leader. She doesn’t have the support or the respect within the country. She’s a very nice woman but she doesn’t have the respect.” Lolsob, I guess.
  10. If “narco-terrorism” can justify military action in Venezuela, then it could be used to topple Mexico–and we know Trump doesn’t like Sheinbaum. The neocons are back baby!
  11. Trump might use this as an excuse to deport more Venezuelans (except those that can bribe him). Certainly, Miller and Noem will use this as an excuse.
  12. When this is all said and done, there need to be courts martial for senior military officers. And, no, a bullshit OLC or DOJ memo does not annul the wrongdoing.
  13. Trump looked like shit during the Saturday press conference. He could not stay awake, and looks very ill.

How the hell are you supposed to have a career in tech in 2026?

The number one question I get from my friends, acquaintances, and mentees in the technology industry these days is, by far, variations on the basic theme of, “what the hell are we supposed to do now?”

There have been mass layoffs that leave more tech workers than ever looking for new roles in the worst market we’ve ever seen. Many of the most talented, thoughtful and experienced people in the industry are feeling worried, confused, and ungrounded in a field that no longer looks familiar.

If you’re outside the industry, you may be confused — isn’t there an AI boom that’s getting hundreds of billions of dollars in investments? Doesn’t that mean the tech bros are doing great? What you may have missed is that half a million tech workers have been laid off in the years since ChatGPT was released; the same attacks on marginalized workers and DEI and “woke” that the tech robber barons launched against the rest of society were aimed at their own companies first.

So the good people who actually make the technology we use every day, the real innovators and creators and designers, are reacting to the unprecedented disconnect between the contemporary tech industry and the fundamentals that drew so many people toward it in the first place. Many of the biggest companies have abandoned the basic principle of making technology that actually works. So many new products fail to deliver on even the basic capabilities that the companies are promising that they will provide.

Many leaders at these companies have run full speed towards moral and social cowardice, abandoning their employees and customers to embrace rank hatred and discrimination in ways that they pretended to be fighting against just a few years ago. Meanwhile, unchecked consolidation has left markets wildly uncompetitive, leaving consumers suffering from the effects of categories without any competition or investment — which we know now as “enshittification”. And the full-scale shift into corruption and crony capitalism means that winners in business are decided by whoever is shameless enough to offer the biggest bribes and debase themselves with the most humiliating display of groveling. It’s a depressing shift for people who, earlier in their careers, often actually were part of inventing the future.

So where do we go from here?

You’re not crazy.

The first, and most important, thing to know is that it’s not just you. Nearly everyone in tech I have this conversation with feels very isolated about it, and they’re often embarrassed or ashamed to discuss it. They think that everyone else who has a job in tech is happy or comfortable at their current employers, or that the other people looking for work are getting calls back or are being offered interviews in response to their job applications. But I’m here to tell you: it is grim right now. About as bad as I’ve seen. And I’ve been around a long time.

Every major tech company has watched their leadership abandon principles that were once thought sacrosanct. I’ve heard more people talk about losing respect for executives they trusted, respected, even admired in the last year than at any time I can remember. In smaller companies and other types of organizations, the challenges have been more about the hard choices that come from dire resource constraints or being forced to make ugly ethical compromises for pragmatic reasons. The net result is tons of people who have lost pride and conviction in their work. They’re going through the motions for a paycheck, because they know it’s a tough job market out there, which is a miserable state of affairs.

The public narrative is dominated by the loud minority of dudes who are content to appease the egos of their bosses, sucking up to the worse impulses of those in charge. An industry that used to pride itself on publicly reporting security issues and openly disclosing vulnerabilities now circles its wagons to gang up on people who suggest that an AI tool shouldn’t tell children to harm themselves, that perhaps it should be possible to write a law limiting schools from deploying AI platforms that are known to tell kids to end their own lives. People in tech endure their bosses using slurs at work, making jokes about sexual assault, consorting with leaders who have directly planned the murder of journalists, engaging in open bribery in blatant violation of federal law and their own corporate training on corruption, and have to act like it’s normal.

But it’s not the end of the world. The forces of evil have not yet triumphed, and all hope is not lost. There are still things we can do.

Taking back control

It can be easy to feel overwhelmed at such an unprecedented time in the industry, especially when there’s so much change happening. But there are concrete actions you can take to have agency over your own career, and to insulate yourself from the bad actors and maximize your own opportunities — even if some of those bad actors are your own bosses.

Understanding systems

One of the most important things you can do is to be clear about your own place, and your own role, within the systems that you are part of. A major factor in the changes that bosses are trying to effect with the deployment of AI is shifting the role of workers within the systems in their organization to make them more replaceable.

If you’re a coder, and you think your job is to make really good code in a particular programming language, you might double down on getting better at the details of that language. But that’s almost certainly misunderstanding the system that your company thinks you’re part of, where the code is just a means to the end of creating a final product. In that system-centric view, the programming language, and indeed all of the code itself, doesn’t really matter; the person who is productive at causing all of that code to be created reliably and efficiently is the person who is going to be valued, or at least who is most likely to be kept around. That may not be satisfying or reassuring if you truly love coding, but at least this perspective can help you make informed decisions about whether or not that organization is going to make choices that respect the things you value.

This same way of understanding systems can apply if you’re a designer or a product manager or a HR administrator or anything else. As I’ve covered before, the purpose of a system is what it does, and that truth can provide some hard lessons if we find it’s in tension with the things we want to be doing for an organization. The system may not value the things we do, or it may not value them enough; the way they phrase this to avoid having to say it directly is by describing something as “inefficient”. Then, the question you have to ask yourself is, can you care about this kind of work or this kind of program at one level higher up in the system? Can it still be meaningful to you if it’s slightly more abstract? Because that may be the requirement for navigating the expectations that technology organizations will be foisting on everyone through the language of talking about “adopting AI”.

Understanding power

Just as important as understanding systems is understanding power. In the workplace, power is something real. It means being able to control how money is spent. It means being able to make decisions. It means being able to hire people, or fire them. Power is being able to say no.

You probably don’t have enough power; that’s why you have worries. But you almost certainly have more power than you think, it’s just not as obvious how to wield it. The most essential thing to understand is that you will need to collaborate with your peers to exercise collective power for many of the most significant things you may wish to achieve.

But even at an individual level, a key way of understanding power in your workplace is to consider the systems that you are part of, and then to reckon with which ones you can meaningfully change from your current position. Very often, people will, in a moment of frustration, say “this place couldn’t run without me!” And companies will almost always go out of their way to prove someone wrong if they hear that message.

On the other hand, if you identify a system for operating the organization that no one else has envisioned, you’ve already demonstrated that this part of the organization couldn’t run without you, and you don’t need to say it or prove it. There is power in the mere action of creating that system. But a lot depends on where you have both the positional authority and the social permission to actually accomplish that kind of thing.

So, if you’re dissatisfied with where you are, but have not decided to leave your current organization, then your first orders of business in this new year should be to consolidate power through building alliances with peers, and by understanding which fundamental systems of your organization you can define or influence, and thus be in control of. Once you’ve got power, you’ve got options.

Most tech isn’t “tech”

So far, we’re talking about very abstract stuff. What do we do if your job sucks right now, or if you don’t have a job today and you really need one? After vague things like systems and power, then what?

Well, an important thing to understand, if you care about innovation and technology, is that the vast majority of technology doesn’t happen in the startup world, or even in the “tech industry”. Startups are only a tiny fraction of the entire realm of companies that create or use technology, and the giant tech companies are only a small percentage of all jobs or hiring within the tech realm.

So much opportunity, inspiration, creativity, and possibility lies in applying the skills and experience that you may have from technological disciplines in other realms and industries that are often far less advanced in their deployment of technologies. In a lot of cases, these other businesses get taken advantage of for their lack of experience — and in the non-profit world, the lack of tech expertise or fluency is often exploited by both the technology vendors and bad actors who swoop in to capitalize on their vulnerability.

Many of the people I talk to who bring their technology experience to other fields also tell me that the culture in more traditional industries is often less toxic or broken than things in Silicon Valley (or Silicon Valley-based) companies are these days, since older or more established companies have had time to work out the more extreme aspects of their culture. It’s an extraordinary moment in history when people who work on Wall Street tell me that even their HR departments wouldn’t put up with the kind of bad behavior that we’re seeing within the ranks of tech company execs.

Plan for the long term

This too shall pass. One of the great gifts of working in technology is that it’s given so many of us the habit of constantly learning, of always being curious and paying attention to the new things worth discovering. That healthy and open-minded spirit is an important part of how to navigate a moment when lots of people are being laid off, or lots of energy and attention are being focused on products and initiatives that don’t have a lot of substance behind them. Eventually, people will want to return to what’s real. The companies that focus on delivering products with meaning, and taking care of employees over time, will be the ones that are able to persist past the current moment. So building habits that enable resiliency at both a personal and professional level is going to be key.

As I’ve been fond of saying for a long time: don’t let your job get in the way of your career.

Build habits and routines that serve your own professional goals. As much as you can, participate in the things that get your name out into your professional community, whether that’s in-person events in your town, or writing on a regular basis about your area of expertise, or mentoring with those who are new to your field. You’ll never regret building relationships with people, or being generous with your knowledge in ways that remind others that you’re great at what you do.

If your time and budget permit, attend events in person or online where you can learn from others or respond to the ideas that others are sharing. The more people can see and remember that you’re engaged with the conversations about your discipline, the greater the likelihood that they’ll reach out when the next opportunity arises.

Similarly, take every chance you can to be generous to others when you see a door open that might be valuable for them. I can promise you, people will never forget that you thought of them in their time of need, even if they don’t end up getting that role or nabbing that interview.

It’s an evolution, not a resolution

New years are often a time when people make a promise to themselves about how they’re going to change everything. If I can just get this new notebook to write in, I’m suddenly going to become a person who keeps a journal, and that will make me a person who’s on top of everything all the time.

But hopefully you can see, many of the challenges that so many people are facing are systemic, and aren’t the result of any personal failings or shortcomings. So there isn’t some heroic individual change that you can make when you flip over to a new calendar month that will suddenly fix all the things.

What you can control, though, are small iterative things that make you feel better on a human scale, in little ways, when you can. You can help yourself maintain perspective, and you can do the same for those around you who share your values, and who care about the same personal or professional goals that you do.

A lot of us still care about things like the potential for technology to help people, or still believe in the idealistic and positive goals that got us into our careers in the first place. We weren’t wrong, or naive, or foolish to aspire to those goals simply because some bad actors sought to undermine them. And it’s okay to feel frustrated or scared in a time when it seems to many like those goals could be further away than they’ve been in a long time.

I do hope, though, that people can see that, by sticking together, and focusing on the things that are within our reach, things can begin to change. All it takes is remembering that the power in tech truly rests with all the people who actually make things, not with the loudmouths at the top who try to tear things down.

O-Ring Automation

We study automation when tasks are quality complements rather than separable. Production requires numerous tasks whose qualities multiply as in an O-ring technology. A worker allocates a fixed endowment of time across the tasks performed; machines can replace tasks with given quality, and time is allocated across the remaining manual tasks. This “focus” mechanism generates three results. First, task-by-task substitution logic is incomplete because automating one task changes the return to automating others. Second, automation decisions are discrete and can require bundled adoption even when automation quality improves smoothly. Third, labour income can rise under partial automation because automation scales the value of remaining bottleneck tasks. These results imply that widely-used exposure indices, which aggregate task-level automation risk using linear formulas, will overstate displacement when tasks are complements. The relevant object is not average task exposure but the structure of bottlenecks and how automation reshapes worker time around them.

That is from a new paper by Joshua S. Gans and Avi Goldfarb.  Once again people, the share of labor is unlikely to collapse…

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Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

A brief excerpt:
Three years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP. Here is an update to a couple of graphs. The bottom line remains the same: There will not be cascading price declines in this cycle due to distressed sales.

In a 2005 post, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.

First, from February 2005 (21 years ago!):
The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last four years have seen a tremendous increase in debt. Last year alone mortgage debt increased close to $800 Billion - almost 7% of GDP. ...

Mortgage Debt GDP 2005Many homeowners have refinanced their homes, in essence using their homes as an ATM.

It wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession. An actual bust, especially with all of the extensive sub-prime lending, might cause a serious problem.
And a serious problem is what happened!
There is much more in the article.

Monday assorted links

1. Séb Krier.

2. Institute for Progress class in the economics of innovation.

3. It’s over, people.  Alternately, here is Joshua Gans using AI for research.

4. Helen DeWitt on Substack.

5. Claims about Venezuela.

6. The year in Neanderthals (NYT).

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Maybe Putin’s House Should Be a Target

Considering the Option, and Questioning Why It Hasn’t Been

Russia claimed that Ukraine sent drones to bomb Putin’s private house. This was taken as shocking by all sides. Ukraine strongly denied it. Putin presented it as something obviously terrible. Trump took it as a horrible thing for Ukraine to have done (evidence is they didn’t and Trump has since said they have not) and that it might cause him to reevaluate his stance on negotiations (which seems exactly what Putin wanted). Trump later came to agree with the CIA assessment that no such bombing of Putin’s house had occurred.

My question is, why not? Why not bomb Putin’s house? I’ve wondered about this for years, not only about the war on Ukraine but about other attack/conflicts in the past. Since Mr. Putin himself has brought up the topic it seems an appropriate time to ask the question openly. Why not?

This war seems to be driven entirely by Putin. I haven’t seen anything that would indicate that if he retired, was voted out of office, grew into the ill-health of age, or lost interest that any of the other leadership in Russia would be determined to pursue this. It is almost entirely a Putin obsession which he will pursue until he can’t. Either he gets what he wants, or Ukraine, with help from allies, overwhelms the attack, or the people of Russia, or other high leadership in Russia, rebel against what it is doing to them, to their young people, and to their economy.

Or maybe he would stop if it hurt too much to bear personally. What if, when his troops were at the border ready to invade, a coalition of the U.S., Ukraine, and some European countries made it clear that if he attacked there would be immediate attacks on everything to do with Putin. On his homes, his yacht, his equivalent of Air Force One. The heck with the international banking laws, go ahead and threaten to steal all the money he and his closest cronies have in western banks and block them from withdrawing it in the meantime. And if he did attack, then carry out all those threats. If it hurt Putin too much, that might be one way he’d decide it wasn’t worth it. Or if he went ahead anyway, at least he’d be paying all the personal price we could inflict.

I’m not talking about killing anyone. It’s not unusual when attacks on property happen that first anyone present is warned to get out. There are reasons we don’t typically casually assassinate leaders we are in conflict with, in part to discourage them trying the same against our leaders.

I’m not a general. Maybe the Joint Chiefs of Staff would say this is crazy and would just start a nuclear war. Or maybe they’d say there is little of that we could actually accomplish because the defenses are too good. I don’t know, but I do wonder. Imagine if we had done that and it had prevented or quickly stopped the war. It would be a terrible escalation but if it had prevented tens of thousands of Ukrainian deaths, and all of that destruction, that would be such a huge plus side that it would balance out some very big downsides. Keep in mind it’s not just about Ukraine. Many knowledgeable sources, the Council on Foreign Relations for one, think Putin may want to go beyond Ukraine if he can. The nations affected then would be allies and members of NATO. So it is security of the U.S./European world that is being threatened.

Putin is a bully and at some point it’s going to take something similar anyway. It seems to me there are two ways a bully gets stopped. One is you give such a strong response immediately that it makes it clear they’re not going to get anything out of pursuing this. The other is you have a long, drawn-out process of gradually trying to discourage them. You eventually have to escalate anyway to where they see they’d better stop, but in the meantime they’ve gotten some of what they want, and you have suffered a long terrible price in the process. So is escalating up front really such a bad cost/benefit trade-off?

Best case at this point is: all of those deaths and all of that destruction has already occurred, and if a big enough commitment is made by the U.S. and European countries to arm Ukraine so well they could clearly stop the war where it is, and some truce is found, with Russia occupying what it has, in other words having gotten some reward for attacking. That’s if best case is achieved. If that’s how it goes would attacking Putin more directly back at the beginning seem like such a bad idea?

As I’m writing this, news about Trump kidnapping Maduro has just come out. Just to be clear, I would not have been suggesting that. Such a different situation. Maduro was not actively bombing civilians in neighboring countries or threatening war across territories of our allies or friends.

As far as bombing Putin’s house I really don’t know what I’m talking about, and among readers of this, every other one who ever read history books about wars and who fancies themselves knowledgeable about such things will, no doubt, be swift to raise a chorus of how ignorant I am. Regardless of all that, I still wonder. I can’t help but wonder.


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ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 47.9% in December; "Lowest Reading of 2025"

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 47.9% in December, down from 48.2% in November. The employment index was at 44.9%, up from 44.0% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.7%, up from 47.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.9% December 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.9 percent in December, a 0.3-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 48.2 percent in November and the lowest reading of 2025. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 68th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for a fourth straight month in December following one month of growth; the figure of 47.7 percent is 0.3 percentage point higher than the 47.4 percent recorded in November. The December reading of the Production Index (51 percent) is 0.4 percentage point lower than November’s figure of 51.4 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58.5 percent, the same as November’s reading. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.8 percent, up 1.8 percentage points compared to the 44 percent recorded in November. The Employment Index registered 44.9 percent, up 0.9 percentage point from November’s figure of 44 percent.
emphasis added
This suggests manufacturing contracted for the tenth consecutive month in December.  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was very weak and prices very strong.

Housing January 5th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.2% Week-over-week

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.2% week-over-week.  

Note that Inventory usually bottoms seasonally in January or February.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 13.3% compared to the same week in 2025 (last week it was up 13.1%), and down 6.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 11.8%). 

Inventory started 2026 down almost 12% compared to 2019.  

Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of January 2nd, inventory was at 720 thousand (7-day average), compared to 736 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Prenups: formerly repugnant, now online

 The New Yorker writes about prenuptial agreements that can be written online, and not just for the wealthy.

Why Millennials Love Prenups
Long the province of the ultra-wealthy, prenuptial agreements are being embraced by young people—including many who don’t have all that much to divvy up.
By Jennifer Wilson

"The past few years have seen the rise of new apps such as HelloPrenup, Wenup, and Neptune that fast-track the process; the latter has couples discuss their finances with an A.I. chatbot before being matched, by algorithm, with a lawyer.

...

"There had been limited cases since the eighteenth century in which prenuptial contracts were recognized in the U.S., but these typically pertained to the handling of a spouse’s assets after death. The idea of a contract made in anticipation of divorce was considered morally repugnant. In an oft-cited case from 1940, a Michigan judge refused to uphold a prenup, emphasizing that marriage was “not merely a private contract between the parties.” You could not personalize it any more than you could traffic laws."
 

Telegram Hosting World’s Largest Darknet Market

Wired is reporting on Chinese darknet markets on Telegram.

The ecosystem of marketplaces for Chinese-speaking crypto scammers hosted on the messaging service Telegram have now grown to be bigger than ever before, according to a new analysis from the crypto tracing firm Elliptic. Despite a brief drop after Telegram banned two of the biggest such markets in early 2025, the two current top markets, known as Tudou Guarantee and Xinbi Guarantee, are together enabling close to $2 billion a month in money-laundering transactions, sales of scam tools like stolen data, fake investment websites, and AI deepfake tools, as well as other black market services as varied as pregnancy surrogacy and teen prostitution.

The crypto romance and investment scams regrettably known as “pig butchering”—carried out largely from compounds in Southeast Asia staffed with thousands of human trafficking victims—have grown to become the world’s most lucrative form of cybercrime. They pull in around $10 billion annually from US victims alone, according to the FBI. By selling money-laundering services and other scam-related offerings to those operations, markets like Tudou Guarantee and Xinbi Guarantee have grown in parallel to an immense scale.

The Divergence Machine

The Contraptions Book Club 2026 is underway. The theme is the divergence machine. I introduced the idea with this diagram a couple of weeks ago, in The Modernity Machine III, in relation to the modernity machine we explored last year.

In January, we are reading Voltaire’s Candide (Theo Cuffe translation recommended) and any related essays we can get our hands on. In February, we’ll read ’s The Underground Empire. In March, you’ll get to choose between a Leibniz-Spinoza book and an Adam-Smith-David-Hume book. Beyond March, the menu is still under construction. Our focal period this year is 1600-2000, with particular emphasis on the early and middle parts.

This essay is intended to set up the dev-environment for the book club so to speak, laying out some initial frames, themes and prejudices. The setup may seem a little elaborate, but our book club isn’t just one damn book after another. It’s more a cunningly contrived contraption designed to enable systematic study of an idea-space.

We’re not picking books because they’re necessarily “good” or fun to read (though I hope most will be both), but because they help assemble a view of the world from a certain opinionated perspective (largely mine, but shaped a lot more by others this year than last year).

There’s an overarching logic and vaulting conceit to what we read, why, and how that I’ll introduce in this essay.

For those who came in late

If you’re just joining our book club shennanigans, it runs on a grand theory. In our grand theory, we are concerned with what we call world machines: contraptions that embody the logic of how the entire world works for a period of time. Our book club studies these world machines through a selection of books from, and about, the construction period of each machine.

The modernity machine that we studied in 2025 was constructed 1200-1600 and operated at a steady plateau of capability 1600-2000. It is now undergoing rapid, partially scheduled disassembly. The divergence machine was constructed 1600-2000 and has been operating in fully deployed mode for about 25 years so far.

By our grand theory, at any given time, one world machine is in operation, another is under construction, and a third may be undergoing (usually rapid) decline/dismantlement/destruction (aka rapid, partially scheduled disassembly, to adapt a term of art from rocketry). So at any given time, you have to understand the logics of two, possibly three world machines in tension to understand how the world works.

The meta-logic is derived from the Gramsci Gap and the idea of worlds being born and dying, with monsters appearing in the passages between, though the mapping is not perfect (the “world being born” is actually two worlds — a completed new world entering full production mode, and the seeds of a future world being planted).

Only two world machines are illustrated above though. The declining medieval machine that enjoyed a plateau of stable operations 1200-1600 and collapsed rapidly after, is not shown. Neither is the as-yet-unnamed machine that is is beginning to be constructed today, and destined for full deployment well past our lifetimes (whose internal logic will likely be shaped by AI crossed with End of History conditions). Juggling two world machines in our heads is hard enough I think.

In our color-by-numbers potted history template, each world machine takes about 400 years to build and turn on, operates for another 400, and declines in another 100-200 years, making for a lifespan of 900-1000 years.

Historiographic Hygiene Rules

Don’t take these numbers or underlying machinic world models too seriously. They are intended more as mnemonic devices and intuition pumps than rigorous theories of history. The point of the models is to approach our book selection and reading with a particular sensibility, paying attention to particular themes and questions (in brief: those that center machinic phenomenology over either organic/“natural” or humanistic).

Historical time, of course, can and does dilate or contract according to both the raw pace of historical events, and the ontological status of “history” as such, and whether or not one can meaningfully posit the existence of a gestalt world process even deserving of the name. The Paleolithic world machine probably had a lifespan of 100,000+ years. The Neolithic world machine had a lifespan of at least 15,000 years. The Bronze Age world machine probably lasted about 4000 years. Over the really longue duree, world-machine lifespans appear to be falling.

But even more importantly, world machine temporalities appear to be — complicating. Later historical machines feature more complex multi-temporalities, suffused with more kinds of atemporalities in their interstices, than earlier ones. To quote the tenth Doctor Who, they are bigger balls of “wibbly wobbly, timey wimey stuff.” The temporal vorticity of history increases with chronological time, and is systematically higher with each new world machine. This is one reason the future always looks more chaotic from perspectives rooted in the past.

Beyond helping book-keep cause and effect, and correlate human events with natural ones, raw chronological time is not as useful for studying history as you might think. Periodizing into “world machine” epochs, while it might seem like a caricaturing move, is surprisingly helpful in organizing our understandings.

This is why there is no problem with continuing to study history after the end of history. Fukuyama’s End of History argument, a staple of my thinking and this book club, rests on a particular ontological of history (his intellectual ancestor, Alexander Kojeve, is on the shortlist for our book club). It is possible to study history in “end of history” conditions, making use of Fukuyama’s models, without being exclusively committed to his ontology of history.

Thanks to the acceleration of history and the shortening of world-machine lifespans, the unnamed AI-powered world machine now being seeded might very well have a lifespan of only 300 years total perhaps, rather than 900-1000, and cut short the reign of the divergence machine now entering production. Given that it accelerates the rerun-heavy nature of post-End-of-History temporalities, those 300 years might feel a great deal more atemporal. And a lot more wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey too.

Keep these hygiene notes in mind as you read.

Divergence in Plan View

The first graph with its intersecting S-curve portrait might tempt you into a too-reductive view of the succession of world machines as some sort of “disruption” process. Resist the temptation. World machines embody richer phenomenology.

Here is another view of both machines, this time in historical plan view. Treat this as your main conceptual map for the book club this year.

On the y-axis, instead of machine complexity portrayed as a classic pair of S-curves, with one displacing the other, we see the fundamental dynamic of each machine, measured by span of non-canoncity.

The modernity machine manufactures and projects convergent canonicity across the planet. You can think of this as a kind of homogenizing, legibilizing fiat reality imposed from a few sources of centralized power (James Scott Seeing Like a State is not on the menu for the book club, but would be a useful prerequisite read if you haven’t already read it — most people I am expecting will join the book club have either read it or good summaries of it).

Those who don’t participate in the exercise of that centralized power are defined by their responses to it. But this doesn’t make those responses “divergent.”

Principle: In general, responses to convergent canonicity tend to become part of that convergent canonicity.

Ie, responses to the modernity machine should be considered part of that machine, because they’re attentionally and informationally entangled with it.

In the path-dependent history that played out on this planet, convergent canonicity can be allegorically represented as a braid of strands winding around a European history centerline.

Excursions away from that centerline, particularly those that stray beyond a recognizably European band, or even play out entirely outside it, are a measure of non-canonicity. These excursions are anomalous from the perspective of the modernity machine; its bugspace so to speak. But non-canonicity, the bugspace of the modernity machine, is the feature space of the divergence machine.

The divergence machine manufactures, or rather, spawns variety. Specifically, variety in a state of expansion and mutual retreat, something like the cosmological red shift playing out in civilizational configuration space.

The divergence machine doesn’t contest political space organized by the modernity machine, based on principles of canonicity. In fact it rests on and relies on, what the modernity machine has already done, without attempting to either perpetuate it or destroy it.

Principle: The divergence machine is not an anti-modernity machine, or in any other particular systematic relationship to it; it has its own internal logic not derived from that of the modernity machine. It assumes the persistence of some of the major historical effects of the modernity machine, but not the perpetuation of the machine itself.

Specifically, the divergence machine doesn’t try to subvert the modernity machine critically (the way “postmodernity” did). Rather, it renders canonicity irrelevant, by creating and organizing civilizational space that is past the reach of the logic of the modernity machine entirely.

In divergence-machine regimes (which, remember, are only 25 years old in their complete form, even if they have been 400 years in the making) the space previously organized by convergent canonicity (the “center” so to speak) or responses to it (which orient towards that “center”), gets phenomenologically bracketed. This is not an intellectual move but a natural and emergent side-effect of divergent historical processes. It is not some sort of partially-self-conscious decentering theorized and narrated by a tribe of intellectuals on a mission.

I’m still working out the nuances of my account of the world after modernity, and how it resembles or differs from accounts that rejoice under names like postmodernity, late modernity, and metamodernity, but it is important to have rough-and-ready understandings of these idea-spaces as we read, because a lot of what we will read will have elements of all these world processes and associated intellectual currents.

So it will be useful to ask questions like is this book late modern, postmodern, metamodern, or divergentist?

Here’s my current cheat sheet. Some of this may change/evolve.

Late Modernity

Late modernity is localized, slowly unraveling, zombie persistence of the modernity machine, including both natural persistence, and conscious political projects to perpetuate it while that’s still an option, or restore it to a pristine state once it is clearly entering a state of dereliction.

There is not much more to be said about late modernity (the associated intellectual currents are fairly weak — Zygmunt Bauman and a few others come to mind), but there is a lot to see of it. Almost everything you see around you is late modern. Almost everything in the news headlines is late modern. We won’t see the last of late modernity in our lifetimes.

Arguably, the bulk of the energy of the world will continue to flow through late-modern pathways for at least our lifetimes, even if very little of the evolutionary intelligence of the world flows through those pathways (hence “zombie” or perhaps “energetic zombie” would be a better term, like the ones in the Korean movie, Train to Busan).

China as it is being imagined and conjured by the CCP today, if not its people, is primarily a late modern world process. But China, the larger, more nebulous civilizational unit and world sub-process, is a more complex beast, not reducible to late-modern dynamics and phenomenology being supervised by the CCP.

Late modernity is not a focus for us, but I liked Adam Curtis’ fevered account of it as “hypernormalcy” in his 2016 documentary. All the energy of the Trumpist planetary turn, right up to the Maduro kidnapping/rendition this weekend, is late-modernity in action. Trumpism and related reactionary turns worldwide are obviously late modern, at least doctrinally, even if they are tactically more open (including borrowing from postmodernity and meta-modernity, which we discus next) in their attempts to shape the fate of the world.

We will not read much about late modernity, or make much use of late-modern perspectives (our readings from last year, suitably extrapolated, should be sufficient to make late modern dynamics sufficiently intelligible for our purposes), but we’ll keep our eyes open for late-modern dynamics.

Our go-to move as we read will be to try and artificially eclipse out the bright dying star of modernity that is late modernism, so we can look at more interesting things. To the extent our book club takes note of headline-grade current events, we will make use of late-modern perspectives to make sense of them, but look for divergence-machine metabolic processes that also respond to them in more long-term consequential ways.

Postmodernity

Postmodernity is both a class of world processes that fall short of defining a world-machine proper (certain strains of post-colonial nationalism for instance), and an attempt to theorize and construct the world entirely in terms of adversarial responses to modernity. As such, postmodernity encompasses both natural modes of alterity (a postmodern term of art) and intellectual-political projects that attempt to make those modes legible and rugged, while simultaneously making the dynamics of the modernity machine fragile and vulnerable to attack.

For our book club, we will use “postmodern” in the broad, loose sense used in popular discourse, covering everything from the original french theorists to more recent American Marxist flavors. We will also use the term for historical processes (such as say independence movements, language/culture revitalization movements, various feminisms and late-stage manifestations in the environmental and social justice movements) that are usefully described by postmodern intellectual perspectives primarily because they constitute themselves with reference to those perspectives. It is worth noting that postmodern intellectual perspectives have been much more constitutive of world-processes in the last century than late modern ones, which have largely emerged as post-hoc narratives of decline processes already underway.

Postmodernity features proportions of energy and intelligence that are the opposite of those exhibited by late modernity. It is an intelligent ghost rather than an energetic zombie. It organizes very little of the energy of world processes today (though it lays claim to a great deal through energetic labeling and map-making), but the intellectual currents associated with it are still extraordinarily strong, decades past their peak. To the point that if you presume to think about world processes at all without using their preferred terms of reference (or worse, using and abusing them partially where useful), they will send representatives to knock on your door in the dead of the night and lecture you.

Unlike divergence, postmodernity does contest the civilizational space organized by modernity (it can conceive of no other), and is therefore in a zero/negative-sum relationship to late modernity. Postmodernity tries to override the logics that late modernity tries to perpetuate.

Principle: The postmodern project, I believe, is essentially complete and has been largely successful as an analytical and political project.

There is much to be learned by studying its discoveries and history. But there’s not much point to continuing the postmodern project, either through constituting world processes by its logic, or keeping the associated intellectual currents going. They’ve made all the discoveries they are going to. The paradigm is exhausted.

Equally, to the extent there are things to dislike about postmodernity, there is no point fighting it, as late modernity likes to do, because on most consequential matters where postmodernity pursued clear objectives, it has already won in ways that cannot really be undone or reversed.

One entailment of this position: the still-ongoing battle between reactionary politics and wokism is something like a cage match between an energetic zombie and an intelligent ghost in the mental model we’ll be adopting for the book club.

To the extent the concerns of either side remain live and consequential ones, we will look elsewhere for meaningful phenomenology to think about. Our assumption will be: If the divergence machine “solves” for social justice or environmental stewardship for example, we should not expect the mechanics to look anything like the ones postmodernity as a constitutive force briefly powered. Equally, if the divergence machine “solves” for some recognizable continuation of things like ethnic or racial identity and nation-state-based culture and traditions, it will look nothing like the solutions of the modernity machine in its late-modern perpetuations and life-extensions.

Our go-to move will be to treat the current war between Late Modernism and Postmodernism as noise to be filtered out as we attempt to decipher the workings of the divergence machine. We might retain problems posed by those perspectives, but likely not any proposed solutions. We will treat both as spent perspectives, as far as their creative constitutive capacities go.

Our attitude towards the intellectual legacy of postmodernity (in the narrow sense of a set of twentieth-century intellectual currents) will be cannibalistic: An occasionally useful source of frames and terms, and a historically consequential set of world processes through part of the twentieth century. Think raw material, not authority or influence. Ghosts can’t defend their corpses after all, or they wouldn’t be ghosts.

Metamodernity

Metamodernity could perhaps be clubbed with Late Modernity, but it is useful to keep it distinct.

I define it as attempts to resurrect patterns of modernity in piecemeal forms that might be viable for contemporary circumstances. (A friend of mine, Rob Knight, evocatively called it “modernism in drag”).

This project, I believe, is ill-conceived, unnecessary, and doomed. I react poorly to things with “meta” in their name and I intend to impose this prejudice on the book club and its activities :)

Perhaps the most important element of metamodernity is world processes and intellectual currents that can be understood as responses to unrecoverable localized psyche failures of modernity. Metamodernity is what you dream up when modernity fails completely enough that there is nothing to revivify or perpetuate, but you still want what it used to deliver reliably, especially inside your head. You go meta when it is too late to be merely late.

Continuing our monstrous taxonomy, if late modernism is an energetic zombie, and postmodernity is an intelligent ghost, metamodernity is ennervated necromancy.

The metamodern project is not reactionary (for a long time, I was convinced it was, but I’ve changed my mind). Metamodernists are typically neither deluded enough, nor chauvinistic enough, nor have enough raw material to work with, to be reactionary about the things they care about.

The so-called “meaning crisis” and ideas like “re-enchantment” could be classified as metamodern turns in intellectual currents. Sincerity, authenticity, and irony are particular concerns of metamodernity, but unlike late modernity, metamodernity does not treat irony as the evil manufacture of postmodernity, constituting a casus belli for culture warring. Rather, in metamodern accounts, irony appears as an emergent consequence of historical processes, resulting in a set of problems to be solved, rather than a set of crimes to be prosecuted.

So metamodern responses take the form of rather doleful adaptation and sentimental creativity, rather than culture warring. The so-called “trad turn” strikes me as more metamodern than neoreactionary (but I’m not attached to this reading). Philosophers in the neo-Heideggerian tradition like Byung-Chul Han strike me as pursuing metamodern projects.

So far, metamodernity exists only as a few weak intellectual currents and perhaps a few attempts at post-ironic art, especially in screen media. There are no meaningful world processes I would classify as metamodern. There are no high-energy phenomena like ethnonationalist political movements, or DEI-ESG wokeism, that we can associate with metamodernism. So far, metamodernists seem to have contented themselves with writing and making art with rather gloomy, tortured gravitas.

There is however, a negative space we can attach to metamodernity that helps define it — the class of ennervation phenomena generally referred to as involution. This spans hikkikomori, “laying flat,” “quiet quitting” and so on. Territories defined by the failure to meaningfully address what only the maps of metamodernity even attempt to organize and attend to.

Our go-to move in relation to metamodernism will be to pay attention to the negative spaces it points to, without doing anything about them.

Rewinding 400 Years

I’ve written elsewhere about my philosophy of Divergentism, which has informed, but only partially determined what I’m calling the divergence machine and the agenda of the 2026 book club.

Our go-to move in relation to divergence is to assume everything important about it started as much as 400 years ago.

If something we read looks like it belongs in an account of the divergence machine, we will try the following moves:

  1. Check if it can be traced back to seeds planted ~1600 or thereabouts

  2. Test to see if it’s better understood as an zombie late-modern thing

  3. Test to see if it’s better understood as an intelligent ghost of postmodernity

  4. Test to see if it’s better understood as ongoing metamodern ennervated necromancy

Phenomenology that gets past this four-stage filter of negative definition can then be explored with “divergence” questions and probes, such as:

  • Is there plurality in the mechanics of whatever is happening?

  • Does it involve people understanding each other less, but getting along better?

  • Does it smell like Darwinian evolution?

  • Does it relativize or bracket things that seem canonical?

  • Is there generative variety emerging from it?

  • Are there elements of absurdity or humor to it?

  • And perhaps most importantly, is it alive?

Our goal will be to look for, analyze, and place machinic constructions on, things that have the energy intensity of late modernity without significant convergent canonicity in associated intelligence processes; the irony, obliquity, and indirection of postmodernity without its negative-sum attention-entanglements with late modernity; and finally the expansive and reality-based concerns of meta-modernity without its interiority or fundamentally gloomy suffering-and-healing sensibilities.

Above all, our true-north question will be does this embody new forms of liveness being newly and generatively turned on in the world?

Our exploration of the divergence machine is a search for emerging liveness, so to speak.

Let’s have at it. Post your thoughts on Candide in this chat thread.

w/e 2026-01-04

A good week of not doing a lot and having a decreasing awareness of which day it was, to the point I was momentarily confused seeing friends’ weeknotes appear on whatever mid-week day I thought it was at the time. I guess yearnotes also throw out the rhythm.

Made it to the gym a couple of times, despite the general feeling of “shouldn’t do anything this week”. Walked over the common and back to the next village and the pub (I had a hot chocolate; I knew that walking home in the cold after a pint wouldn’t be that fun).

And, on the spur of the moment, I joined Mary on a walk up, around and down the Blorenge, which I’d never been to before. As part of this year’s effort to look on the bright side of things: if I was in London I couldn’t be walking up an almost-mountain in Wales half-an-hour after leaving home. Very pretty but also very cold, so the latter half of the walk, when my patience for country walks has usually reached its limit, was quite hurried to get out of the freezing wind.

A photo of a trig point – a tapering cement pillar – surrounded by football-sized grey rocks. To the right is a mound of rocks on top of which is an adult holding a child's hand, facing away from the camera, both in winter clothing. In the distance we see more wintery hills under a mostly clear sky.
The trig point at the top of the Blorenge

§ Two things being monitored this week:

  1. Following my health check the GP wanted a week’s worth of blood pressure tests because mine was slightly high. I put it off until after travelling to Essex, and the disruptions of Christmas. So I’ve been doing three readings (ignoring the first) twice a day. Which was interesting at first but now, six days in, is a real pain. BP still slightly elevated.
  2. The Kia e-Niro failed to charge or start again, requiring a jump-start from our new battery pack. After reading many conflicting and ambiguous forum posts we bought a BM2 12V Bluetooth Battery Monitor which is now attached to that clunky olde-world lead-acid battery so we can keep an eye on it and maybe figure out what causes it to lose all charge. So far it seems to happen when trying to charge the traction battery overnight, if that doesn’t have much charge in (less than 50%? 40%?). Which is a known thing if charging using an Octopus Intelligent Go tariff controlling the car’s charging… but our OIG is controlling the Zappi charger, not the car… honestly, why do we have to know this stuff? EVs were supposed to be simpler.

§ I’d had Flow (Gints Zilbalodis, 2024) on my watchlist for ages, never quite getting round to it. I’m not that into animated films and, I thought, how interesting could an animation of animals without any dialogue be? Very! Brilliant. Beautiful, absorbing, emotional.


§ After the past few distracted and slack weeks, my list of To Dos is too long, swollen with recurring end-of-year and start-of-month tasks, but whatever. So far, five whole days into 2026 I am – despite everything in the wider world – feeling chill, helped by a few days of sunshine. Good luck!


Read comments or post one

The wisdom of Garett Jones

Two cases for capital share going to zero in a strong AGI world: 1. Capital and labor are more like perfect complements than perfect substitutes, always will be as long as the economy is for humans, and so astronomical increases in capital shrink the capital share to zero.

Why capital share goes to zero in a strong AGI world: 2. Capital & labor are more like perfect substitutes than complements because AGI de facto replicates free humans. Astronomical increases in capital make capital so abundant it’s unpriced like air, so capital share is zero.

The link has a bit more.  Of course this is a thought experiment and a reductio, not a prediction.  (It seems people in the rationalist community systematically misunderstand how economists communicate?  Maybe that is partly the fault of the economists, but they should not so dogmatically believe that the economists are wrong.)  And here are very good comments from Basil Halperin.

The bottom line is that it is premature, to say the least, to expect that the share of labor falls to zero or near-zero.

The post The wisdom of Garett Jones appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Using eBPF to load-balance traffic across UDP sockets with Go

Akvorado collects sFlow and IPFIX flows over UDP. Because UDP does not retransmit lost packets, it needs to process them quickly. Akvorado runs several workers listening to the same port. The kernel should load-balance received packets fairly between these workers. However, this does not work as expected. A couple of workers exhibit high packet loss:

$ curl -s 127.0.0.1:8080/api/v0/inlet/metrics \
> | sed -n s/akvorado_inlet_flow_input_udp_in_dropped//p
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="0"} 0
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="1"} 0
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="2"} 0
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="3"} 1.614933572278264e+15
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="4"} 0
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="5"} 0
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="6"} 9.59964121598348e+14
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="7"} 0

eBPF can help by implementing an alternate balancing algorithm. 🐝

Options for load-balancing

There are three methods to load-balance UDP packets across workers:

  1. One worker receives the packets and dispatches them to the other workers.
  2. All workers share the same socket.
  3. Each worker has its own socket, listening to the same port, with the SO_REUSEPORT socket option.

SO_REUSEPORT option

Tom Hebert added the SO_REUSEPORT socket option in Linux 3.9. The cover letter for his patch series explains why this new option is better than the two existing ones from a performance point of view:

SO_REUSEPORT allows multiple listener sockets to be bound to the same port. […] Received packets are distributed to multiple sockets bound to the same port using a 4-tuple hash.

The motivating case for SO_RESUSEPORT in TCP would be something like a web server binding to port 80 running with multiple threads, where each thread might have it’s own listener socket. This could be done as an alternative to other models:

  1. have one listener thread which dispatches completed connections to workers, or
  2. accept on a single listener socket from multiple threads.

In case #1, the listener thread can easily become the bottleneck with high connection turn-over rate. In case #2, the proportion of connections accepted per thread tends to be uneven under high connection load. […] We have seen the disproportion to be as high as 3:1 ratio between thread accepting most connections and the one accepting the fewest. With SO_REUSEPORT the distribution is uniform.

The motivating case for SO_REUSEPORT in UDP would be something like a DNS server. An alternative would be to receive on the same socket from multiple threads. As in the case of TCP, the load across these threads tends to be disproportionate and we also see a lot of contection on the socket lock.

Akvorado uses the SO_REUSEPORT option to dispatch the packets across the workers. However, because the distribution uses a 4-tuple hash, a single socket handles all the flows from one exporter.

SO_ATTACH_REUSEPORT_EBPF option

In Linux 4.5, Craig Gallek added the SO_ATTACH_REUSEPORT_EBPF option to attach an eBPF program to select the target UDP socket. In Linux 4.6, he extended it to support TCP. The socket(7) manual page documents this mechanism:1

The BPF program must return an index between 0 and N-1 representing the socket which should receive the packet (where N is the number of sockets in the group). If the BPF program returns an invalid index, socket selection will fall back to the plain SO_REUSEPORT mechanism.

In Linux 4.19, Martin KaFai Lau added the BPF_PROG_TYPE_SK_REUSEPORT program type. Such an eBPF program selects the socket from a BPF_MAP_TYPE_REUSEPORT_ARRAY map instead. This new approach is more reliable when switching target sockets from one instance to another—for example, when upgrading, a new instance can add its sockets and remove the old ones.

Load-balancing with eBPF and Go

Altering the load-balancing algorithm for a group of sockets requires two steps:

  1. write and compile an eBPF program in C,2 and
  2. load it and attach it in Go.

eBPF program in C

A simple load-balancing algorithm is to randomly choose the destination socket. The kernel provides the bpf_get_prandom_u32() helper function to get a pseudo-random number.

volatile const __u32 num_sockets; // ❶

struct {
    __uint(type, BPF_MAP_TYPE_REUSEPORT_SOCKARRAY);
    __type(key, __u32);
    __type(value, __u64);
    __uint(max_entries, 256);
} socket_map SEC(".maps"); // ❷

SEC("sk_reuseport")
int reuseport_balance_prog(struct sk_reuseport_md *reuse_md)
{
    __u32 index = bpf_get_prandom_u32() % num_sockets; // ❸
    bpf_sk_select_reuseport(reuse_md, &socket_map, &index, 0); // ❹
    return SK_PASS; // ❺
}

char _license[] SEC("license") = "GPL";

In ❶, we declare a volatile constant for the number of sockets in the group. We will initialize this constant before loading the eBPF program into the kernel. In ❷, we define the socket map. We will populate it with the socket file descriptors. In ❸, we randomly select the index of the target socket.3 In ❹, we invoke the bpf_sk_select_reuseport() helper to record our decision. Finally, in ❺, we accept the packet.

Header files

If you compile the C source with clang, you get errors due to missing headers. The recommended way to solve this is to generate a vmlinux.h file with bpftool:

$ bpftool btf dump file /sys/kernel/btf/vmlinux format c > vmlinux.h

Then, include the following headers:4

#include "vmlinux.h"
#include <bpf/bpf_helpers.h>

For my 6.17 kernel, the generated vmlinux.h is quite big: 2.7 MiB. Moreover, bpf/bpf_helpers.h is shipped with libbpf. This adds another dependency for users. As the eBPF program is quite small, I prefer to put the strict minimum in vmlinux.h by cherry-picking the definitions I need.

Compilation

The eBPF Library for Go ships bpf2go, a tool to compile eBPF programs and to generate some scaffolding code. We create a gen.go file with the following content:

package main

//go:generate go tool bpf2go -tags linux reuseport reuseport_kern.c

After running go generate ./..., we can inspect the resulting objects with readelf and llvm-objdump:

$ readelf -S reuseport_bpfeb.o
There are 14 section headers, starting at offset 0x840:
  [Nr] Name              Type             Address           Offset
[…]
  [ 3] sk_reuseport      PROGBITS         0000000000000000  00000040
  [ 6] .maps             PROGBITS         0000000000000000  000000c8
  [ 7] license           PROGBITS         0000000000000000  000000e8
[…]
$ llvm-objdump -S reuseport_bpfeb.o
reuseport_bpfeb.o:  file format elf64-bpf
Disassembly of section sk_reuseport:
0000000000000000 <reuseport_balance_prog>:
; {
       0:   bf 61 00 00 00 00 00 00     r6 = r1
;     __u32 index = bpf_get_prandom_u32() % num_sockets;
       1:   85 00 00 00 00 00 00 07     call 0x7
[…]

Usage from Go

Let’s set up 10 workers listening to the same port.5 Each socket enables the SO_REUSEPORT option before binding:6

var (
    err error
    fds []uintptr
    conns []*net.UDPConn
)
workers := 10
listenAddr := "127.0.0.1:0"
listenConfig := net.ListenConfig{
    Control: func(_, _ string, c syscall.RawConn) error {
        c.Control(func(fd uintptr) {
            err = unix.SetsockoptInt(int(fd), unix.SOL_SOCKET, unix.SO_REUSEPORT, 1)
            fds = append(fds, fd)
        })
        return err
    },
}
for range workers {
    pconn, err := listenConfig.ListenPacket(t.Context(), "udp", listenAddr)
    if err != nil {
        t.Fatalf("ListenPacket() error:\n%+v", err)
    }
    udpConn := pconn.(*net.UDPConn)
    listenAddr = udpConn.LocalAddr().String()
    conns = append(conns, udpConn)
}

The second step is to load the eBPF program, initialize the num_sockets variable, populate the socket map, and attach the program to the first socket.7

// Load the eBPF collection.
spec, err := loadReuseport()
if err != nil {
    t.Fatalf("loadVariables() error:\n%+v", err)
}

// Set "num_sockets" global variable to the number of file descriptors we will register
if err := spec.Variables["num_sockets"].Set(uint32(len(fds))); err != nil {
    t.Fatalf("NumSockets.Set() error:\n%+v", err)
}

// Load the map and the program into the kernel.
var objs reuseportObjects
if err := spec.LoadAndAssign(&objs, nil); err != nil {
    t.Fatalf("loadReuseportObjects() error:\n%+v", err)
}
t.Cleanup(func() { objs.Close() })

// Assign the file descriptors to the socket map.
for worker, fd := range fds {
    if err := objs.reuseportMaps.SocketMap.Put(uint32(worker), uint64(fd)); err != nil {
        t.Fatalf("SocketMap.Put() error:\n%+v", err)
    }
}

// Attach the eBPF program to the first socket.
socketFD := int(fds[0])
progFD := objs.reuseportPrograms.ReuseportBalanceProg.FD()
if err := unix.SetsockoptInt(socketFD, unix.SOL_SOCKET, unix.SO_ATTACH_REUSEPORT_EBPF, progFD); err != nil {
    t.Fatalf("SetsockoptInt() error:\n%+v", err)
}

We are now ready to process incoming packets. Each worker is a Go routine incrementing a counter for each received packet:8

var wg sync.WaitGroup
receivedPackets := make([]int, workers)
for worker := range workers {
    conn := conns[worker]
    packets := &receivedPackets[worker]
    wg.Go(func() {
        payload := make([]byte, 9000)
        for {
            if _, err := conn.Read(payload); err != nil {
                if errors.Is(err, net.ErrClosed) {
                    return
                }
                t.Logf("Read() error:\n%+v", err)
            }
            *packets++
        }
    })
}

Let’s send 1000 packets:

sentPackets := 1000
conn, err := net.Dial("udp", conns[0].LocalAddr().String())
if err != nil {
    t.Fatalf("Dial() error:\n%+v", err)
}
defer conn.Close()
for range sentPackets {
    if _, err := conn.Write([]byte("hello world!")); err != nil {
        t.Fatalf("Write() error:\n%+v", err)
    }
}

If we print the content of the receivedPackets array, we can check the balancing works as expected, with each worker getting about 100 packets:

=== RUN   TestUDPWorkerBalancing
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[0] = 107
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[1] = 92
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[2] = 99
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[3] = 105
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[4] = 107
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[5] = 96
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[6] = 102
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[7] = 105
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[8] = 99
    balancing_test.go:84: receivedPackets[9] = 88

    balancing_test.go:91: receivedPackets = 1000
    balancing_test.go:92: sentPackets     = 1000

Graceful restart

You can also use SO_ATTACH_REUSEPORT_EBPF to gracefully restart an application. A new instance of the application binds to the same address and prepare its own version of the socket map. Once it attaches the eBPF program to the first socket, the kernel steers incoming packets to this new instance. The old instance needs to drain the already received packets before shutting down.

To check we are not losing any packet, we spawn a Go routine to send as many packets as possible:

sentPackets := 0
notSentPackets := 0
done := make(chan bool)
conn, err := net.Dial("udp", conns1[0].LocalAddr().String())
if err != nil {
    t.Fatalf("Dial() error:\n%+v", err)
}
defer conn.Close()
go func() {
    for {
        if _, err := conn.Write([]byte("hello world!")); err != nil {
            notSentPackets++
        } else {
            sentPackets++
        }
        select {
        case <-done:
            return
        default:
        }
    }
}()

Then, while the Go routine runs, we start the second set of workers. Once they are running, they start receiving packets. If we gracefully stop the initial set of workers, not a single packet is lost!9

=== RUN   TestGracefulRestart
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[0] = 165
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[1] = 195
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[2] = 194
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[3] = 190
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[4] = 213
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[5] = 187
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[6] = 170
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[7] = 190
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[8] = 194
    graceful_test.go:135: receivedPackets1[9] = 155

    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[0] = 1631
    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[1] = 1582
    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[2] = 1594
    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[3] = 1611
    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[4] = 1571
    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[5] = 1660
    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[6] = 1587
    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[7] = 1605
    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[8] = 1631
    graceful_test.go:139: receivedPackets2[9] = 1689

    graceful_test.go:147: receivedPackets = 18014
    graceful_test.go:148: sentPackets     = 18014

Unfortunately, gracefully shutting down a UDP socket is not trivial in Go.10 Previously, we were terminating workers by closing their sockets. However, if we close them too soon, the application loses packets that were assigned to them but not yet processed. Before stopping, a worker needs to call conn.Read() until there are no more packets. A solution is to set a deadline for conn.Read() and check if we should stop the Go routine when the deadline is exceeded:

payload := make([]byte, 9000)
for {
    conn.SetReadDeadline(time.Now().Add(50 * time.Millisecond))
    if _, err := conn.Read(payload); err != nil {
        if errors.Is(err, os.ErrDeadlineExceeded) {
            select {
            case <-done:
                return
            default:
                continue
            }
        }
        t.Logf("Read() error:\n%+v", err)
    }
    *packets++
}

With TCP, this aspect is simpler: after enabling the net.ipv4.tcp_migrate_req sysctl, the kernel automatically migrates waiting connections to a random socket in the same group. Alternatively, eBPF can also control this migration. Both features are available since Linux 5.14.

Addendum

After implementing this strategy in Akvorado, all workers now drop packets! 😱

$ curl -s 127.0.0.1:8080/api/v0/inlet/metrics \
> | sed -n s/akvorado_inlet_flow_input_udp_in_dropped//p
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="0"} 838673
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="1"} 843675
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="2"} 837922
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="3"} 841443
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="4"} 840668
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="5"} 850274
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="6"} 835488
packets_total{listener="0.0.0.0:2055",worker="7"} 834479

The root cause is the default limit of 32 records for Kafka batch sizes. This limit is too low because the brokers have a large overhead when handling each batch: they need to ensure they persist correctly before acknowledging them. Increasing the limit to 4096 records fixes this issue.

While load-balancing incoming flows with eBPF remains useful, it did not solve the main issue. At least the even distribution of dropped packets helped identify the real bottleneck. 😅


  1. The current version of the manual page is incomplete and does not cover the evolution introduced in Linux 4.19. There is a pending patch about this. ↩︎

  2. Rust is another option. However, the program we use is so trivial that it does not make sense to use Rust. ↩︎

  3. As bpf_get_prandom_u32() returns a pseudo-random 32-bit unsigned value, this method exhibits a very slight bias towards the first indexes. This is unlikely to be worth fixing. ↩︎

  4. Some examples include <linux/bpf.h> instead of "vmlinux.h". This makes your eBPF program dependent on the installed kernel headers. ↩︎

  5. listenAddr is initially set to 127.0.0.1:0 to allocate a random port. After the first iteration, it is updated with the allocated port. ↩︎

  6. This is the setupSockets() function in fixtures_test.go↩︎

  7. This is the setupEBPF() function in fixtures_test.go↩︎

  8. The complete code is in balancing_test.go ↩︎

  9. The complete code is in graceful_test.go ↩︎

  10. In C, we would poll() both the socket and a pipe used to signal for shutdown. When the second condition is triggered, we drain the socket by executing a series of non-blocking read() until we get EWOULDBLOCK↩︎

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Africa possibility of the day

Call it a statistical quirk if you must. But this year, with a bit of luck, Africa will grow faster than Asia. If the 54 African economies manage to outpace their Asian counterparts, it would be the first time in modern history that this has happened.

To achieve it, African economies will need to grow marginally faster on average than they did last year. In 2025, despite war in Sudan, insurgency in the Sahel and coups in Madagascar and Guinea Bissau, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have mustered growth of about 4.1 per cent. The IMF expects this to notch up to 4.4 per cent as economies continue to reap the benefits of a weak dollar — good for cutting debt-service payments and easing inflationary pressure — and of high commodity prices, including for gold and copper.

At the same time, the IMF is predicting that, as the Chinese motor whirrs more slowly, the combined economies of Asia will slow in 2026 to around 4.1 per cent.

Here is more from David Pilling at the FT.

The post Africa possibility of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

 

Are you a neoconservative?

I am very aware of how people think of terms like neoliberalism and neoconservatism:

“Neoliberalism, isn’t that like screwing the poor?”

“Neoconservatism, isn’t that like the Iraq War?”

Both terms are widely used as derogatory epithets.

I prefer to think of these concepts as policy regimes. For me, neoliberalism is free markets plus social insurance—an economy like Denmark. For me, neoconservatism is the forceful use of the US military to achieve various nation-building objectives.

If you don’t like these definitions, that’s fine. Go someplace else and comment, I’m not interested in your definition. I get bored debating terminology—I’d rather debate ideas.

This post is not going to discuss neoliberalism, as I’ve already done many posts defending that ideology. Instead, I’ll use this post to argue that neoconservatism is not necessarily what you think. I don’t like neoconservatism, but not for the same reason that most other people don’t like neoconservatism. Instead, I’ll suggest that we need to spend more time thinking in terms of policy regimes, and less time focusing on individual examples of neoconservatism in action.

Before considering neoconservatism, let’s consider a few other cases where failing to think in terms of policy regimes can lead people astray.

  1. Banking Regulation

Bank in 2008, we were bombarded with stories about how the banking crisis was caused by “deregulation”, and that the solution was more regulation. I never bought that explanation, but I was in the minority. The truth is that banks were still highly regulated in 2007. More importantly, regulators were pressuring banks to make more high-risk loans to low-income borrowers. In that case does “more regulation” mean even more pressure to do high risk lending?

Supporters of bank regulation will respond that they wanted more restrictive regulation, not more regulatory pressure to lend. Monday morning quarterbacking is so easy. They fail to understand that many years ago when the regulatory system was first set up, there was no set of magic buttons to choose from, one saying “good regulation” and the other saying “bad regulation”. When you opt for regulation, you get whatever the political system dictates. And political systems generally have a bias toward easy credit. (Although Kevin Erdmann makes a strong argument that we overcorrected to tight credit after 2008.)

Don’t believe me? We are now 17 years past the crisis and our political system is moving back toward an emphasis on easier credit. If you really believe that “deregulation” caused the 2008 crash, you should probably be predicting another crash. This is especially so because we also have the same unusually high housing prices that we had in 2006. The fact that very few people are predicting a crash is a tacit admission that I was probably correct; deregulation and a housing price bubble did not cause the 2008 recession. (Tight money did.) I see very few news stories saying, “Trump is bringing back the banking policies that caused the 2008 crash.”

  1. Monetary policy

Monetary policy is one of the best examples of where people think too much in terms of specific actions, and too little in terms of policy regimes. “Should interest rates have been higher or lower in 2023?” is not even a meaningful question. What sort of policy regime are you assuming? In terms of the actual policies being implemented by the Fed, interest rates appear to have been too low during the early 2020s. Policy was too expansionary. But if the Fed had done what it promised, if it had actually implemented a regime of “flexible average inflation targeting” at 2%, then inflation would have been far lower during the early 2020s, and by 2023 interest rates would have been lower than they actually were at that time. The question “What should the Fed do now?” has no meaning except in regard to a well specified policy regime.

People make a similar mistake when they assume that central banks monetize the debt with low-interest rate policies. If the Fed intends to monetize the debt, that means much higher inflation and much higher interest rates. Saying “Kevin Hassett is a low-interest rate guy” is a meaningless statement. Are you saying he’s an easy money guy or a tight money guy? If he’s an easy money guy then he’s not a low-interest rate guy. Biden was an easy money guy, and his policies (including pressure on Powell) generated higher inflation and sharply rising interest rates in 2022-23.

In the late 1960s, the Fed adopted a series of gestures aimed at creating high employment. Decisions were made year-by-year, with no coherent framework for long run goals. This discretionary policy led to ever increasing inflation that by the early 1980s had driven the economy into a ditch. Ignore the policy regime question at your peril.

  1. Law enforcement

Some people say the government should assassinate suspected drug dealers, a policy pioneered by the Filipinos back in the 2010s. Unfortunately, there is no magic “assassinate drug dealer” button to push, all we have is “assassinate suspected drug dealers” and “don’t assassinate suspected drug dealers” buttons. America’s founders understood this dilemma and instituted a policy regime of trial by jury to ascertain the guilt or innocence of criminal suspects. They understood that it was dangerous to assassinate suspects on a case-by-case basis, that this was a policy likely to lead to abuse.

[BTW, America’s founders favored completely legal narcotics; they would have been puzzled by calls to assassinate drug dealers.]

I see two problems with neoconservatism:

A. Policy interventions might fail.

B. Even worse, policy actions might succeed, leading to even greater future failures.

There is little doubt in my mind that America’s success in the two World Wars contributed to overconfidence, which led to the fiasco in Vietnam. (To be clear, I believe we were forced to fight the Second World War.)

In the mid-1980s, the US won what used to be called a “splendid little war” in Grenada. A few years later we won another splendid little war in Panama, and then in 1991 another in Iraq. The ease of those victories led to overconfidence in 2003, and the fiasco of the second Iraq War.

Pundits make the mistake of viewing these actions in isolation, judging each one on a cost—benefit basis, without reference to a broader policy regime. Policymakers are not looking at two buttons to push, one saying, “splendid little wars” and the other saying “quagmires”. You place your bets and take your chances.

Unfortunately, unlike with casino gambling the events are not independent. Here’s a sports analogy that might help. My favorite NBA team recently lost by one point to a weak team, and then a few days later defeated a weak team by one point. Some sports fans will say “If only we’d won that close game, we’d now have a four-game winning streak.” They don’t understand that games are not independent events. The embarrassing loss motivated the team to try harder, so that it would not be embarrassed a second time in a row. Even then, it only won by one point. If it had been able to eke out a close win in the previous game, the team would likely have been overconfident and might have lost the follow up game two days later.

Even people who opposed the Grenada and Panama invasions will often say things like, “It was a stupid decision, but since we are at war let’s pray for our soldiers to come out ahead.” Anything else seems unpatriotic, and that’s probably been my view in most cases. But in retrospect, what if Grenada and Panama had turned out badly? Might that have discredited neoconservatism, making the Iraq War less likely? I recall that after Vietnam there was very little appetite to fight another big war. Then we dipped our toes in the water with Grenada and Panama, and it seemed like splendid little wars turned out just fine. Even the first Iraq War (aka “Gulf War”) was over surprisingly quickly, and this probably led policymakers to underestimate the difficulties of the second Iraq War.

Trump has engaged in military action against Iran, Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia, and Venezuela. He has even refused to rule out military action against Colombia, Mexico and Denmark. Should we be hoping that Trump achieves lots of little successes, boosting his self-confidence? Or do you worry that perhaps Trump already has a tiny bit too much self-confidence?

I prefer to think in terms of regimes, such as mutual self-defense alliances like Nato, and not in terms of a series of discretionary gestures that may or may not work out. I feel that way even when we have a leader (like Bush 41) that is mostly supportive of internationalism, willing to work with our democratic allies. I feel even more strongly about the importance of stable policy regimes when we have a leader who frequently praises Putin and trashes the leaders of democratic countries. A leader who pardons one Latin America leader convicted of drug smuggling while arresting another Latin American leader accused of drug smuggling.

I see a lot of very smart pundits offering opinions on individual actions like the recent strikes on Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela. I see very few pundits offering coherent opinions on what sort of foreign policy regime makes sense for the US.

And no, “always push the right button” is not a sufficient answer.

PS. I just saw this Bloomberg headline:

China Social Media Hails US Maduro Move as a Taiwan Template

. . . “I suggest using the same method to reclaim Taiwan in the future,” one user said in reply to a post with more than 700 likes. “Since the US doesn’t take international law seriously, why should we care about it?” said another user.

I get that China was already determined to recapture Taiwan, but might this speed up the timeline? In a world where the other two big powers routinely attack smaller nations, might China face fewer economic sanctions (from third countries) after a Taiwan move than if it occurred during an otherwise more peaceful period like the late 1990s, when international law seemed to mean something? How about if it occurred right after we had also just grabbed Greenland from Denmark? How about if public statements by our president made it seem like the Venezuela operation was about oil, not drugs or humanitarian considerations? How does that influence global attitudes toward China?

And if the Monroe Doctrine gives the US the right to do as it wishes in Latin America, what rights does China have regarding an ethnically Chinese nearby island that is recognized by all but a handful of nations as a part of China? (In case it’s not obvious, I’m not defending China, I’m questioning the Monroe Doctrine.)

To paraphrase Tyler, context is underrated.

PPS. Ironically, over the past month the net change in drug smuggling Latin American leaders in US custody is . . .

Zero!!

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The November 2025 inflection point

It genuinely feels to me like GPT-5.2 and Opus 4.5 in November represent an inflection point - one of those moments where the models get incrementally better in a way that tips across an invisible capability line where suddenly a whole bunch of much harder coding problems open up.

Tags: anthropic, claude, openai, ai, llms, gpt-5, ai-assisted-programming, generative-ai, claude-4

Survey gives astronomers a latte to think about

Creating a star is hard work, and the process is not very efficient. Current knowledge suggests that a stellar nursery must have a minimum density of gas and dust for a star to form. Only 1-2% of all the gas and dust in these clouds is utilised to ignite a star. But could even denser regions be more efficient at forming stars?

In today's Picture of the Week, we’re looking at GAL316, one of the many stellar nurseries a team of astronomers observed to answer this question. This region is part of a survey called CAFFEINE – an astronomer’s best friend – carried out using the ArTéMiS camera at the Atacama Pathfinder Experiment (APEX), a radio-telescope in the Chajnantor plateau. Now operated by the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy, this telescope captures the faint glow of cold gas clouds, seen here as a blue glow. This glow has been overlaid on a starry background captured with ESO’s VISTA telescope.

Results from the study show that, unlike astronomers, who get more efficient with a bit of caffeine, the densest regions observed with this CAFFEINE survey seemed no more efficient at producing stars than any other stellar nursery above the minimum density.

The Future of Coding Agents

It has been three days since I launched Gas Town! 🔥⛽💥🛢️🔥 Woohoo!

The launch post had a lot of ground to cover. Fortunately we can relax now. Gas Town is alive, if only just. I have created something that is just barely smart enough. Gas Town works pretty OK today. Super fast, very fun, very powerful, definitely sloppy. But it will get dramatically more capable as four evolving situations unfold this year, around tooling and model intelligence.

In this post, I’ll share a bit of the backstory of Gas Town that I had to leave out of the Jan 1 post. And then I’ll share some predictions about what I think will happen to IDEs, big companies, and coding agents themselves. I also plan to do a bunch of posts and videos on how I use Gas Town to do real work.

Gas Town is impressive to watch in action. And it’s only just getting started.

Figure: Gas Town classroom with protesters outside

Gas Town’s Free Upgrades

First, let’s talk about how Gas Town will get smarter, simply from having launched it. Gas Town is a bit of a Swamp Thing right now; it sort of oozes rather than whirs. It does work, and astonishingly fast. Nothing like hurling swarms of Claude Code Opus 4.5 instances at a big epic, or bug backlog. Chomp, chomp! But it also requires a lot of manual steering and course-correction, and you sometimes have to push it to finish.

But that initial instability will fade over the course of 2026. Gas Town will go from a self-propelling slime monster to a shiny, well-run agent factory. All without me having to do a damned thing to improve it myself anymore (though I still will!)

First, models will get smarter. I know many of you think they have plateaued. I know many of you are building tools around the idea, “what if the models never got any smarter?” But models are getting smarter, and better at coding (and everything else). I aimed high with Gas Town. It’s a lot today, but it should be natural for models to play their roles by midyear, if not sooner.

Second, Gas Town and Beads are going to finally make it into the training corpus. One of the astonishing hallmarks of Beads is that agents use it naturally and smoothly with no training. Gas Town, too — still a bit bumpy yet, since Beads is two months more mature. But Gas Town will get there too. Fast.

I have been curating Gas Town the same way I did Beads, using the Desire Paths approach to agent UX. You tell the agent what you want, watch closely what they try, and then implement the thing they tried. Make it real. Over and over. Until your tools works just the way agents believe it should work. So Gas Town is gradually becoming agent-friendly, even without being in the training corpus.

But now that people are using it? Psh. Agents will know all about Gas Town by summer.

Third, coding agent shops are going to wake up, realize that they have built workers when I’ve built a factory (and the world will soon build more factories), and 2026 agents will compete on how well they support being factory workers. Gas Town currently has a crummy, duct-taped API atop a agents that offer barely any platform hooks. The agent shops that start supporting all the necessary automation hooks, to start turning their beloved pets into cattle, will be the agents who win in 2026.

Fourth, and last but not least, the Gas Town community is already going nuts. I’ve already had over 50 PRs, and double that in issue reports and feature requests. And it’s only the weekend; most people haven’t even come back from the holidays and seen Gas Town yet. Despite my dire warnings not to use it, Gas Town is growing fast, 10x faster than Beads did. Even if the models weren’t getting smarter, Gas Town will still come into its own anyway, with the community’s help.

Those of you who understood the vision immediately and reached out — I am grateful for you. And for all the contributors sending PRs and GHIs and trying it out, I’m so glad for your help.

Gas Town’s contributors will help make this a reality. I’ve painted just enough of a complete and coherent vision, with a solid initial implementation, that people are already on board and helping me fill in the details.

OK, a little story of how we got here, and then we’ll get to the predictions. Feel free to skip or skim the backstory if you’re not interested.

Gas Town was Orchestrator #4

In August I started working on an orchestrator called vibecoder. It was in TypeScript, all vibe coded. It was a serious attempt to automate my own workflow using (at the time) Amp, which has always been a luxury Rolls-Royce coding agent. Amp has great ergonomics. But importantly, it also has Ads — which means, Amp just might be the most affordable way to use Gas Town today. I found myself running 5–10 instances of Amp, and wanted to try to figure out how to get them to help me with the job.

My v1 attempt, Vibecoder, was built atop Temporal, which is the gold standard for workflow orchestration. It proved cumbersome for my needs. The workflows I was orchestrating turned out to be micro-workflows, since you have to severely decompose tasks for LLMs to reliably follow them.

Unfortunately, that lost me some scalability: Gas Town isn’t super vertically scalable in its K8s-shaped form. A town is about machine-sized. Gas Town scales by having lots of towns, much like Git scales by having lots of repos, which really just pushes the scaling problem onto the user. For this reason, I still believe Temporal will be a key piece of the puzzle for scaling AI workflows to enterprise level. Models love to offload cognition to powerful tools, and Temporal is as powerful as it gets: the Bagger 288 of workflow orchestrators. But that power is exactly why I stepped away from it for my dev tool: I feel like it needs a “lite” version.

My v2 version of vibecoder was called vc. You can see the legacy repo; it was supposed to be private but at some point I think vc itself made the repo public. It was in Go. It wound up being overly monolithic, not because of Go, but because I was trying to solve the wrong problem. With vibecoder and vc, I was trying to make agents better. With Gas Town, I was just trying to make more of them. The fact that Gas Town has all the features of the other two, with a tiny fraction of the code, tells me I finally got it right.

My v3 orchestrator began on November 23rd. I had by then left Sourcegraph (three memorable years, great company, lots of fun) and I was now working on a set of Python scripts aimed at trying to help me with swarming work. I had given up on quality and switched my focus to quantity. I started by moving all my ad-hoc named agents (just random directories and repo clones) under a single tree and trying to organize them with git worktree. I called it Gas Town, after Mad Max, because it was a ridiculously chaotic environment at first, where it felt like everyone was fighting to get their work done. I now call that first version PGT, or Python Gas Town.

Gas Town eagerly adopted a discovery by Jeffrey Emanuel, author of MCP Agent Mail. He found that combining Mail with Beads led to an ad-hoc “agent village,” where agents will naturally collaborate divide up work and farm it out. Coding agents are pros at email-like interfaces, and you can use mail as an “agent village” messaging system without needing to train or prompt them. They just get it. Gas Town was my attempt to turn an ad-hoc agent village into a coordinated agent town.

Python Gas Town grew quickly, becoming operational within a week, and carrying me for a couple weeks. It had evolved most of the roles except Deacon and Dogs. The Refinery was brand-new and untested. Mostly what Python Gas Town did was provide spawning for named and ephemeral workers. All with raw Beads and epics. But something about it felt right.

The last 2 weeks of December, after my trip to Sydney/Melbourne to visit CBA, was the fertile innovation period where I came up with 90% of the design for Gas Town. I had promised everyone at the workshops that I was going to launch it (Python Gas Town!) by Christmas day, or Jan 1 at the latest. Not realizing that I was going to wind up redesigning and rewriting the whole thing in Go, immediately after I got home.

It was the port to Go that actually encouraged me to try different things. I would tell Claude, “this is it, this is our last chance to get this or that irksome issue fixed”, and I went all-in on Gas Town’s revised architecture. I had to redo it all 3 or 4 times (again, after 3–4 redesigns in PGT) because the agents were still guessing wrong about the directory structure and roles. But eventually I achieved liftoff. By Dec 29th, my handoff loops were working, seances worked, polecats and swarms and convoys were working, the crew and tmux bindings were working, and I could improve Gas Town simply by slinging work at it. It was time to launch!

Why Golang?

My four orchestrators were written in TypeScript, Go, Python, then Go. For the record, I’m mostly a Java/Kotlin guy by background, and my best scripting language is probably Ruby. And I am generally happiest hand-coding in any dialect of Lisp.

But I am really liking Go for vibe-coded projects. I probably wrote close to a million lines of code last year, rivaling my entire 40-year career oeuvre to date. I started writing code at age 17, and I estimate that in the past 40 years I’ve handwritten about 1.1 million lines of released production code. But despite my attempts to keep Beads and Gas Town small, together they are already pushing half a million lines of code. With contributor contributions

During the time I was vibe-coding those million lines of code, I learned a lot about what AIs handle well and poorly. And what I found is that models waste a lot of tokens on TypeScript. It’s, like, too much language for them. Easily a third to half of all my diffs they created in TS were either complicated type manipulations, or complicated workarounds to avoid having to put proper types on things. Every single “write code” step had to be followed by 2–3 “let’s make it less bad” steps that don’t exist in other languages, to force it to go clean up all its crummy type modeling. I found it to be a huge waste of tokens, and the end result was still always a huge pile of code. For an ultra-expressive language it sure is verbose!

Python was “fine”. It didn’t suck. It hot reloaded my changes as I was working, which was nice. Whereas with Go, every agent has to reinstall and re-codesign the binary locally whenever you make a change, and they tend to forget. PGT’s code diffs were easy to scan and understand. The agents don’t waste time wrestling with type modeling. I think for server-side stuff, Python can potentially be great. But for a client-side deployment, it still always felt like a bunch of scripts. I liked Beads’ ability to build and distribute a native Go binary, so I opted for that with Go Gas Town.

Sure enough, I found on my second major Go project that Go is just… good. Polyglots have always turned their noses down a bit at Go because it’s “boring,” but I now think that’s an evolutionary advantage in the AI-coding space. When the diffs go by in TypeScript, half the time you’re like, what awful thing is my computer up to now? But with Go, it’s just boring. It’s writing log files, doing simple loops, doing simple conditionals, reading from maps and arrays, just super duper plain vanilla stuff. Which means you can always understand it! Speaking as someone who has studied and used 50+ programming languages, always looking for elegance and compactness — to my surprise, Go is a real boon to vibe-coding systems programmers.

Is TypeScript still the best for Web apps? Yeah, probably. I’m just glad I don’t have to build one.

The Future of Coding Agents

I’ve already predicted that IDEs, in their current form, are goners. If you’re still using one, you need to get your ass in gear and start using coding agents before before you acquire the equivalent of severe body odor on the open market.

Everyone seems to think that the future of coding agents is… coding agents. I’ll reiterate what my friend Brendan Hopper said about them, which is that when work needs to be done, nature prefers colonies. Nature builds ant colonies, Brendan says, while Claude Code is “the world’s biggest fuckin’ ant.” It will bite you in half and take all your resources. Everyone is focused on making their ant run longer, perform more, and do bigger things. Making the super-worker. The super-ant. It’s like all the black and white 1950s horror movies I watched as a kid in the 1970s.

And it’s great, because a colony of huge ants is going to really kick ass. Nothing wrong with big ants, yeah? I don’t mind at all that coding agents are getting better. I appreciate it, and in fact, I count on it. Gas Town really needs another model upgrade or two before it’s firing on all cylinders. I saw it appreciably improve when Opus 4.5 came out. I already had Python Gas Town and it was a struggle, but Opus 4.5 made it super smooth, overnight. So I know it’s just gonna keep getting smoother as the ants get bigger.

But colonies are going to win. Factories are going to win. Automation is going to win. Of course they’re gonna fucking win. Anyone who thinks otherwise is, well, not a big fan of history, I guess.

So my prediction here is that coding agents are very soon going to shift focus to be better colony workers. They need to have direct, built-in support for the emerging “Orchestrator API Surface”, which is a score or more or interaction points where I had to create some shitty hack because the agents have almost no platform APIs. Why? Because none of the 30+ coding-agent vendors are thinking of their precious baby coding agent as a colony worker. They’re thinking of it as a human pair programmer. Gas Town is going to change that over the course of 2026. The focus will shift to coordinating agents.

I’m not saying we’re going to give up on curating the human/agent loop — we need to continue improving that. But the real progress comes from colonies. The agents who get that, and embrace it, will win.

The Future of Big Companies

I think big companies are going to be screwed. Really screwed. The form factor is starting to be wrong. It’s too many people to accomplish too little work. Have you noticed how every fuckin’ person on LinkedIn is a CEO or cofounder now? The entire world is going to explode into tiny companies, which will then aggregate and re-form into larger ones… but not until we go through at least a year of churn, where small shops dramatically outperform large ones, to a degree we’ve never seen in all history.

Figure: Small shops compete directly with bigger ones

Here’s a case study for you. I had lunch the other day with a couple ex-Amazon buddies, neither of whom I’d seen in 20 years — Ryan Snodgrass and Ajit Banerjee, who are doing a startup together in the devops/automation space. They are big Beads fans and wanted to grab lunch and chat about it. We ate at Cactus in Kirkland, always good food there. And we had a hell of a chat! Thanks for the lunch, guys!

These guys are level 8s on my developer-evolution chart from the Gas Town launch post. They’re pushing coding agents as hard as anyone on the planet. And they’re observing some phenomena that I didn’t see coming. This is because they are doing something that I am not: they are working as a team, whereas all my orchestrated vibe coding has been done alone.

The stories they told me… it’s all still buzzing around in my head. They are both vibe coding with agents (Claude Code and maybe a couple others), and they both lean hard into Beads, which is a workflow accelerator. It doesn’t actually matter what your agentic coding workflow is: Beads will accelerate it. They both have unlimited tokens; Ryan’s burning $60k/year or thereabouts, but is quickly pushing up into dev-salary territory. So they have been achieving the maximum speeds you can get with coding agents.

Their stories flew by, but the theme was the same: They are going so fast that other teammates can’t keep up. They have a contributor in Munich who works in PST (our timezone), and he’ll say, “I did X!” And they’ll get mad and say, “Why did you do X, where did you get that information from?” And he’ll be like, it was from 2 hours ago. And they’ll say, “2 hours ago!? That’s ancient!” It might as well have been 2 weeks ago.

Ajit and Ryan go so fast that they have these new rules emerging, like, everything you do has to be 100% transparent and announced, all the time, or else you might as well be working in a sealed concrete chamber a mile underground. Everyone has to see your work or nobody will see it. Stuff is moving by too fast.

How do you scale this up to a big company? Crikey, when Ajit & Ryan get fully spun up with Gas Town, they’re going to be at many multiples of today’s productivity. They don’t need to scale it to a big company. Heck, they can’t scale it to a big company. At least, nobody knows how today.

Gene Kim and I are seeing this everywhere; we talked to one big company who was getting so wrecked by the merge problem that they decided the solution was “one engineer per repo”(!) They basically gave up and punted on coordination, ceding the floor to raw single-dev velocity.

This is crazy, right? And factory coding farms like Gas Town will only accelerate and accentuate this problem. Solo unicorn? They’ll all be solo, soon. At this rate I’ll be more impressed if a 100-person startup can make a billion dollars in 2027. Genuinely impressed. How will they even communicate, with that many people doing AI work at once? I can’t wait to find out.

I’m sure we’ll solve all these problems eventually, but as of this moment, we’re at the beginning of a massive shift that’s going to plow through the industry like a tornado, flipping companies like houses.

OK, we’ve done the backstory, we’ve done the predictions. Let’s land the plane.

Like and Subscribe and F*** Off

Ha! Just kidding, I already told you all to f*** off in the launch post, several times, so if you’re still here, you’re definitely one of the crazy ones and welcome aboard!

Plus, I don’t even think Medium has that like/subscribe stuff. Do they?

I’ve got a LOT of Gas Town content coming. Gas Town is the Big One. I’ll do videos that show you how I work with Gas Town, doing real work with it. I’ll post tips and tricks. I’ll share stuff that other people are doing with Gas Town. I’ll showcase agents that are working to become compatible Gas Town colony workers. And Gene Kim and I will continue to host hands-on workshops throughout 2026, for those of you who want a premium educational experience to jumpstart your enterprise devs in this brave new world.

Remember, you’re probably not ready for Gas Town just yet. I’ll reprise the “Evolution of Coders, 2024–2026,” from the launch post, as it’s already making the rounds and sparking a lot of discussion.

Figure 2: Evolution of the Programmer, 2024–2026

The post shows a spectrum of 8 levels of developer, with trust in the agent gradually increasing from zero to where it takes over your IDE, spills into the CLI, and then multiplies from there.

You need to be at least level 6, and have about half of the XP needed to reach level 7, before you’ll appreciate Gas Town. If you are already very experienced with multi-agent agentic coding, outside the IDE, then I think you will immediately find Gas Town a breath of fresh air. You’ll be faster than ever, with the exact same quality output you’ve learned to demand and expect with “naked” Claude Code, or with ad-hoc orchestrators.

Level 7+ users are already reporting that Gas Town is fun. Which it is! Once it gets on a roll for you, and it starts plowing through giant piles of heavily-reviewed, heavily-tested work, day after day, you’ll realize, wow. This is it. There’s no going back. We’ve arrived at factory farming code. And it’s hella fun.

I’m ready to write my next two posts about Gas Town, so let’s wrap this one! I’ll throw in some original content here to get you to subscribe. AI did not write this. Trying to get AI to write stuff like this is like getting old people to clap their hands to music.

Your original content: the beginnings of a song about Gas Town.

(To the tune of, well… you know.)

LeFou: Gosh it disturbs me to see you, Gas Town, looking so hard at my job
Every one here’d love to use you, Gas Town, you’re making our coder hearts throb
There’s no orchestration available today
We’re wrestling with Claude Code all night
Gas Town you’ve shown us the game’s pay to play
Oh we hope it will turn out all right…

Nooooo…
Ooooone…
Churns like Gas Town
Token-burns like Gas Town
No one’s cloud bill at end-of-month hurts like Gas Town!
For there’s no system half as autonomous
It’s got Beads, so it keeps going on
You can ask any coder who’s tried us
And they will all tell you their savings are gone!

No one codes like Gas Town
Context-loads like Gas Town
No one leaves humans out in the cold like Gas Town!
(spoken) “I’m especially skillful at orchestrating!”
My, what a rig, that Gas Town!

FAQ

People have been asking some interesting questions about Gas Town already.

Q: Are we entering a pay-to-play era where garage hackers are irrelevant?

A: It’s an understandable question. Gas Town is the beginning of industrialized factory-farming of code, which feels like pay to play. It’s expensive today, and as the models improve, it will become even more expensive to push it at the frontier. However, I think garage vibe-coding is going to be alive and well starting around summer 2026. OSS models lag frontier models by about 7 months, so by summer, OSS models will be as good as October’s crop, which were “good enough” for most startup-type eng work. If you have a GPU or two, you can run them for free all night long.

Q: Does Gas Town obsolete Vibe Coding?

A: Ha! It does not. Gas Town goes the other way, and fully embraces vibe coding. People still don’t understand that we’ve been vibe coding since the Stone Age. Programming has always been a best-effort, we’ll-fix-shit-later endeavor. We always ship with bugs. The question is, how close is it? How good are your tests? How good is your verification suite? Does it meet the customer’s needs? That’s all that matters. Today is no different from how engineering has ever been. From a company’s perspective, historically, the engineer has always been the black box. You ask them for stuff; it eventually arrives, broken, and then gradually you work together to fix it. Now the AI is that black box. If you want to learn the art of Vibe Coding so you can be maximally effect with coding agents and Gas Town, check out the Vibe Coding book that I co-wrote with the legendary Gene Kim!

Vibe Coding, by Gene Kim and Steve Yegge

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 4, 2026

Monday:
• Early, Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for 15.5 million SAAR in December, down from 15.6 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for December.  The consensus is for 48.3%, up from 48.2%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were moxed over the last week with WTI futures at $57.32 per barrel and Brent at $60.75 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $77 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.77 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.04 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.27 year-over-year.

How complex is Jupiter? How complex is Jupiter?


Heavy Snow in the Cascades and Northern Rockies; Wintry Mix in the Northeast; High Winds in Southern California